Resources of dark skies in German climatic health resorts.

PubMed

Gabriel, Katharina M A; Kuechly, Helga U; Falchi, Fabio; Wosniok, Werner; Hölker, Franz

2017-01-01

Illumination of nocturnal environments is increasing steadily worldwide. While there are some benefits for mankind, light at night affects animals, plants, and human health by blurring the natural distinction between day and night. International regulations exist to protect the environment for the maintenance of human health but nocturnal darkness is not considered. In Germany, cities and communities labeled as Climatic Health Resorts provide for high standards in air quality. However, their degree of nocturnal darkness is unexplored so far. In our study, we examined the degree of nocturnal darkness in German Climatic Health Resorts by two datasets based on georeferenced remote sensing data. The majority of Climatic Health Resorts (93.1 %) are able to offer a relative respite (≥ 20 mag/arcsec 2 ) from a degraded nocturnal environment, while only 3.4 % are able to offer a dark, if by no means pristine, night environment (≥ 21 mag/arcsec 2 ). Climatic Health Resorts emit less light as well as are less affected by night sky brightness compared to the average of non-classified communities. In combination with daytime requirements, the resorts provide conditions for a more distinct day-and-night-cycle than non-classified communities.

Boreal forests, aerosols and the impacts on clouds and climate.

PubMed

Spracklen, Dominick V; Bonn, Boris; Carslaw, Kenneth S

2008-12-28

Previous studies have concluded that boreal forests warm the climate because the cooling from storage of carbon in vegetation and soils is cancelled out by the warming due to the absorption of the Sun's heat by the dark forest canopy. However, these studies ignored the impacts of forests on atmospheric aerosol. We use a global atmospheric model to show that, through emission of organic vapours and the resulting condensational growth of newly formed particles, boreal forests double regional cloud condensation nuclei concentrations (from approx. 100 to approx. 200 cm(-3)). Using a simple radiative model, we estimate that the resulting change in cloud albedo causes a radiative forcing of between -1.8 and -6.7 W m(-2) of forest. This forcing may be sufficiently large to result in boreal forests having an overall cooling impact on climate. We propose that the combination of climate forcings related to boreal forests may result in an important global homeostasis. In cold climatic conditions, the snow-vegetation albedo effect dominates and boreal forests warm the climate, whereas in warmer climates they may emit sufficiently large amounts of organic vapour modifying cloud albedo and acting to cool climate.

The Preboreal-like Asian monsoon climate in the early last interglacial period recorded from the Dark Cave, Southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Xiuyang; He, Yaoqi; Wang, Xiaoyan; Sun, Xiaoshuang; Hong, Hui; Liu, Juan; Yu, Tsai-Luen; Li, Zhizhong; Shen, Chuan-Chou

2017-08-01

Transitions of glacial-interglacial cycles are critical periods for Quaternary climate shifts. Here, we present new, decadal resolution Asian summer monsoon (ASM) record from three stalagmites obtained from the Dark Cave in southwestern China over 130-114 thousand years ago (ka, before CE 1950). Chronology was anchored by 28 230Th dates with typical uncertainties of ±0.3-1.0 kyr, allowing an assessment of timing and transition of climate changes during the onset and end of the last interglacial. An agreement between this new and previous stalagmite δ18O records supports that summer insolation predominates orbital-scale ASM evolution. A 2-3 kyr-long gradually increasing ASM period, analogous to the classical Preboreal episode in the early Holocene, follows the termination of a weak monsoon interval at 129.0 ± 0.8 ka. This finding suggests a strong influence of high-latitude ice-sheet dynamics on Asian monsoonal conditions during the early interglacial period. An abrupt end of the marine isotope stage 5e at 118.8 ± 0.6 ka was probably caused by the internal climate system threshold effects.

Dark ice dynamics of the south-west Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tedstone, Andrew J.; Bamber, Jonathan L.; Cook, Joseph M.; Williamson, Christopher J.; Fettweis, Xavier; Hodson, Andrew J.; Tranter, Martyn

2017-11-01

Runoff from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has increased in recent years due largely to changes in atmospheric circulation and atmospheric warming. Albedo reductions resulting from these changes have amplified surface melting. Some of the largest declines in GrIS albedo have occurred in the ablation zone of the south-west sector and are associated with the development of dark ice surfaces. Field observations at local scales reveal that a variety of light-absorbing impurities (LAIs) can be present on the surface, ranging from inorganic particulates to cryoconite materials and ice algae. Meanwhile, satellite observations show that the areal extent of dark ice has varied significantly between recent successive melt seasons. However, the processes that drive such large interannual variability in dark ice extent remain essentially unconstrained. At present we are therefore unable to project how the albedo of bare ice sectors of the GrIS will evolve in the future, causing uncertainty in the projected sea level contribution from the GrIS over the coming decades. Here we use MODIS satellite imagery to examine dark ice dynamics on the south-west GrIS each year from 2000 to 2016. We quantify dark ice in terms of its annual extent, duration, intensity and timing of first appearance. Not only does dark ice extent vary significantly between years but so too does its duration (from 0 to > 80 % of June-July-August, JJA), intensity and the timing of its first appearance. Comparison of dark ice dynamics with potential meteorological drivers from the regional climate model MAR reveals that the JJA sensible heat flux, the number of positive minimum-air-temperature days and the timing of bare ice appearance are significant interannual synoptic controls. We use these findings to identify the surface processes which are most likely to explain recent dark ice dynamics. We suggest that whilst the spatial distribution of dark ice is best explained by outcropping of particulates from ablating ice, these particulates alone do not drive dark ice dynamics. Instead, they may enable the growth of pigmented ice algal assemblages which cause visible surface darkening, but only when the climatological prerequisites of liquid meltwater presence and sufficient photosynthetically active radiation fluxes are met. Further field studies are required to fully constrain the processes by which ice algae growth proceeds and the apparent dependency of algae growth on melt-out particulates.

Association between light-to-dark changes in angle width and iris parameters in light, dark and changes from light-to-dark conditions.

PubMed

Lee, Roland Y; Lin, Shuai-Chun; Chen, Rebecca I; Barbosa, Diego T; Lin, Shan C

2016-09-01

To evaluate the association between light-to-dark changes in angle width parameters and iris parameters in light, dark and changes from light-to-dark conditions. In this prospective, cross-sectional study, anterior segment optical coherence tomography images, obtained under light and dark conditions, were analysed to determine angle opening distance measured at 500 μm from the scleral spur (AOD500), trabecular-iris space area at 500 μm from the scleral spur (TISA500), iris thickness measured at 750 μm from the scleral spur (IT750), iris thickness measured at 2000 μm from the scleral spur (IT2000), iris area (IArea) and pupil diameter (PD). Multivariable linear mixed-effect regression models were used to evaluate the association between light-to-dark changes in angle width parameters (AOD500, TISA500) and iris parameters (IT750, IT2000, IArea, PD) in light, dark and changes from light-to-dark conditions. 534 eyes from 314 non-glaucomatous subjects were analysed. IT750, IT2000, IArea and PD in light conditions were significantly associated with light-to-dark changes in AOD500 (p<0.05). IT750, IT2000 and IArea in light conditions were significantly associated with light-to-dark changes in TISA500 (p<0.05). IT750 in dark conditions was significantly associated with light-to-dark changes in AOD500 and TISA500 (p<0.05). Light-to-dark changes in IT2000, IArea and PD were significantly associated with light-to-dark changes in AOD500 (p<0.05). Light-to-dark changes in IArea were significantly associated with light-to-dark changes in TISA500 (p<0.05). Evaluation of iris parameters in light, dark and changes from light-to-dark conditions demonstrated that IT750, IT2000, IArea and PD in light conditions are significant predictors of light-to-dark changes in angle width. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Carbon exchange in biological soil crust communities under differential temperatures and soil water contents: implications for global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grote, Edmund E.; Belnap, Jayne; Housman, David C.; Sparks, Jed P.

2010-01-01

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are an integral part of the soil system in arid regions worldwide, stabilizing soil surfaces, aiding vascular plant establishment, and are significant sources of ecosystem nitrogen and carbon. Hydration and temperature primarily control ecosystem CO2 flux in these systems. Using constructed mesocosms for incubations under controlled laboratory conditions, we examined the effect of temperature (5-35 1C) and water content (WC, 20-100%) on CO2 exchange in light cyanobacterially dominated) and dark cyanobacteria/lichen and moss dominated) biocrusts of the cool Colorado Plateau Desert in Utah and the hot Chihuahuan Desert in New Mexico. In light crusts from both Utah and New Mexico, net photosynthesis was highest at temperatures 430 1C. Net photosynthesis in light crusts from Utah was relatively insensitive to changes in soil moisture. In contrast, light crusts from New Mexico tended to exhibit higher rates of net photosynthesis at higher soil moisture. Dark crusts originating from both sites exhibited the greatest net photosynthesis at intermediate soil water content (40-60%). Declines in net photosynthesis were observed in dark crusts with crusts from Utah showing declines at temperatures 425 1C and those originating from New Mexico showing declines at temperatures 435 1C. Maximum net photosynthesis in all crust types from all locations were strongly influenced by offsets in the optimal temperature and water content for gross photosynthesis compared with dark respiration. Gross photosynthesis tended to be maximized at some intermediate value of temperature and water content and dark respiration tended to increase linearly. The results of this study suggest biocrusts are capable of CO2 exchange under a wide range of conditions. However, significant changes in the magnitude of this exchange should be expected for the temperature and precipitation changes suggested by current climate models.

North polar region of Mars: imaging results from viking 2.

PubMed

Cutts, J A; Blasius, K R; Briggs, G A; Carr, M H; Greeley, R; Masursky, H

1976-12-11

During October 1976, the Viking 2 orbiter acquired approximately 700 high-resolution images of the north polar region of Mars. These images confirm the existence at the north pole of extensive layered deposits largely covered over with deposits of perennial ice. An unconformity within the layered deposits suggests a complex history of climate change during their time of deposition. A pole-girdling accumulation of dunes composed of very dark materials is revealed for the first time by the Viking cameras. The entire region is devoid of fresh impact craters. Rapid rates of erosion or deposition are implied. A scenario for polar geological evolution, involving two types of climate change, is proposed.

Cooling energy savings potential of light-colored roofs for residential and commercial buildings in 11 US metropolitan areas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Konopacki, S.; Akbari, H.; Gartland, L.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) sponsored this project to estimate potential energy and monetary savings resulting from the implementation of light-colored roofs on residential and commercial buildings in major U.S. metropolitan areas. Light-colored roofs reflect more sunlight than dark roofs, so they keep buildings cooler and reduce air-conditioning demand. Typically, rooftops in the United States are dark, and thus there is a potential for saving energy and money by changing to reflective roofs. Naturally, the expected savings are higher in southern, sunny, and cloudless climates. In this study, we make quantitative estimates of reduction in peak power demand andmore » annual cooling electricity use that would result from increasing the reflectivity of the roofs. Since light-colored roofs also reflect heat in the winter, the estimates of annual electricity savings are a net value corrected for the increased wintertime energy use. Savings estimates only include direct reduction in building energy use and do not account for the indirect benefit that would also occur from the reduction in ambient temperature, i.e. a reduction in the heat island effect. This analysis is based on simulations of building energy use, using the DOE-2 building energy simulation program. Our methodology starts with specifying 11 prototypical buildings: single-family residential (old and new), office (old and new), retail store (old and new), school (primary and secondary), health (hospital and nursing home), and grocery store. Most prototypes are simulated with two heating systems: gas furnace and heat pumps. We then perform DOE-2 simulations of the prototypical buildings, with light and dark roofs, in a variety of climates and obtain estimates of the energy use for air conditioning and heating.« less

Short-lived high-amplitude cooling on Svalbard during the Dark Ages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Bilt, Willem; D`Andrea, William; Bakke, Jostein; Balascio, Nicholas; Werner, Johannes; Hoek, Wim

2016-04-01

As the paradigm of a stable Holocene climate has shifted, an increasing number of high-resolution proxy timeseries reveal dynamic conditions, characterized by high-amplitude climate shifts. Some of these events occurred during historical times and allow us to study the interaction between environmental and cultural change, providing valuable lessons for the near future. These include the Dark Ages Cold Period (DACP) between 300 and 800 AD, a period marked by political upheaval and climate instability that remains poorly investigated. Here, we present two temperature reconstructions from the High Arctic Svalbard Archipelago. To this end, we applied the established alkenone-based UK37 paleothermometer on sediments from two lakes on western Spitsbergen, Lake Hajeren and Lake Hakluyt. The Arctic is presently warming twice as fast as the global average and proxy data as well as model simulations suggest that this amplified response is characteristic for regional climate. The Arctic therefore provides a uniquely sensitive environment to study relatively modest climate shifts, like the DACP, that may not be adequately captured at lower-latitude sites. Owing to undisturbed sediments, a high sampling resolution and robust chronological control, the presented reconstructions resolve the attendant sub-centennial-scale climate shifts. Our findings suggest that the DACP marks a cold spell within the cool Neoglacial period, which started some 4 ka BP on Svalbard. Close investigation reveals a distinct temperature minimum around 500 AD that is reproduced in another alkenone-based temperature reconstruction from a nearby lake. At ± 1.75 °C, cooling underlines the sensitivity of Arctic climate as well as the magnitude of the DACP.

Impact of a changing environment on the built heritage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossi, C. M.; Brimblecombe, P.; Bonazza, A.

2012-04-01

Stone monuments are degraded by both climate and pollution. Deterioration by pollution was especially intense from the 1700s and until the late 20th century the dominant impact of air pollution was the sulfation of surfaces. The parallel deposition of soot caused blackening and on some surfaces dark coloured crusts. The decrease of sulfur and soot from coal combustion during the last decades of the 20th century led to cleaner air in cities, a decrease of pollution-decay rates on building stones and a public desire for cleaner buildings. Although there were decreases in SO2, it was replaced by ozone, nitrogen oxides and particles richer in organic compounds, the result of an extensive use of automobiles. Deposited organic compounds can oxidise in modern urban environments in a yellowing process. The future may reveal variation in building colour from biological growth in a changing climate. In urban atmospheres with less sulfur, biological growth is more effective. A greater rate of delivery of nitrate to building surfaces that acts as "airborne fertiliser" favours colonisation. Depending on climate, there might be different processes (e.g. greening or reddening) and patterns of colouration. Climate is also a relevant factor in the weathering of monuments. Recent research suggests the concept of Heritage Climatology in the study of climate interactions with monuments, materials and sites. These parameters concentrate on aspects and combinations of meteorological variables that relate to material damage. The Köppen-Geiger climate classification can be a good approximation for some heritage risks. For instance, the number of salt transitions shows distinct seasonality which can be related to Köppen-Geiger climate types and their change during the 21th century. The study of changing pollution and climate impacts on the built heritage needs the output of pollution emissions and climate change models, which are prone to uncertainties. The use of multiple climate models or ENSEMBLES may improve the accuracy and reliability of predictions. This approach has been used to predict salt damage. However, more work is needed on the uncertainty in predictions and the way this affects the management of stone heritage. There is public availability of climate and pollution data, but frequently these need to be unified and made user-friendly for cultural heritage researchers in many countries, e.g. the UKCP09 user interface is a good example of friendly-availability for probabilistic projections and downscaled climate change data, but available data are limited to the UK. The utilisation of these improved techniques can contribute to better strategies for managing buildings.

A multiple-proxy approach to understanding rapid Holocene climate change in Southeast Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davin, S. H.; Bradley, R. S.; Balascio, N. L.; de Wet, G.

2012-12-01

The susceptibility of the Arctic to climate change has made it an excellent workshop for paleoclimatological research. Although there have been previous studies concerning climate variability carried out in the Arctic, there remains a critical dearth of knowledge due the limited number of high-resolution Holocene climate-proxy records available from this region. This gap skews our understanding of observed and predicted climate change, and fuels uncertainty both in the realms of science and policy. This study takes a comprehensive approach to tracking Holocene climate variability in the vicinity of Tasiilaq, Southeast Greenland using a ~5.6 m sediment core from Lower Sermilik Lake. An age-depth model for the core has been established using 8 radiocarbon dates, the oldest of which was taken at 4 m down core and has been been dated to approximately 6.2 kyr BP. The bottom meter of the core below the final radiocarbon date contains a transition from cobbles and coarse sand to organic-rich laminations, indicating the termination of direct glacial influence and therefore likely marking the end of the last glacial period in this region. The remainder of the core is similarly organic-rich, with light-to-dark brown laminations ranging from 0.5 -1 cm in thickness and riddled with turbidites. Using this core in tandem with findings from an on-site assessment of the geomorphic history of the locale we attempt to assess and infer the rapid climatic shifts associated with the Holocene on a sub-centennial scale. Such changes include the termination of the last glacial period, the Mid-Holocene Climatic Optimum, the Neoglacial Period, the Medieval Climatic Optimum, and the Little Ice Age. A multiple proxy approach including magnetic susceptibility, bulk organic geochemistry, elemental profiles acquired by XRF scanning, grain-size, and spectral data will be used to characterize the sediment and infer paleoclimate conditions. Additionally, percent biogenic silica by weight has been quantified via diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy (DRIFTS), and validated by a traditional wet leaching method. The use of the emerging DRIFTS technology to obtain inferred biogenic silica concentrations has not been widely applied to arctic lacustrine sediments and will help to contribute to the presently limited pool of literature on the topic. Preliminary results of the data reveal high frequency fluctuations between laminations superimposed on long-term trends, which has revealed already some correlation with Holocene climatic events. The data provided by this barrage of proxies is to be presented and will contribute to the understanding of Holocene Arctic climate change at a sub-centennial scale.

Late Holocene climate change in the western Mediterranean: centennial-scale vegetation and North Atlantic Oscillation variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos Román, M. J.; Jimenez-Moreno, G.; Anderson, R. S.; García-Alix, A.; Toney, J. L.; Jiménez-Espejo, F. J. J.; Carrión, J. S.

2015-12-01

Sediments from alpine peat bogs and lakes from the Sierra Nevada in southeastern Spain (western Mediterranean area) have been very informative in terms of how vegetation and wetland environments were impacted by past climate change. Recently, many studies try to find out the relationship between solar activity, atmosphere and ocean dynamics and changes in the terrestrial environments. The Mediterranean is a very sensitive area with respect to atmospheric dynamics due to (1) its location, right in the boundary between subtropical and temperate climate systems and (2) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is one of the main mechanism that influence present climate in this area. Here we present a multi-proxy high-resolution study from Borreguil de la Caldera (BdlC), a peat bog that records the last ca. 4500 cal yr BP of vegetation, fire, human impact and climate history from the Sierra Nevada. The pollen, charcoal and non-pollen palynomorphs (NPPs) reconstruction in the BdlC-01 record evidence relative humidity changes in the last millennia interrupting the late Holocene aridification trend. This study shows a relative arid period between ca. 4000 and 3100 cal yr BP; the Iberian Roman humid period (ca. 2600 to 1600 cal yr BP); a relative arid period during the Dark Ages (from ca. AD 500 to AD 900) and Medieval Climate Anomaly (from ca. AD 900 to ca. AD 1300) and predominantly wetter conditions corresponding with The Little Ice Age period (from ca. AD 1300 to AD 1850). This climate variability could be explained by centennial scale changes in the NAO and solar activity.

Spider Bites

MedlinePlus

... at the center of the bite can become dark blue or purple and then evolve into a ... and brown recluse spiders prefer warm climates and dark, dry places. Black widow habitat Black widow spiders ...

Time-variable surface patterns as an indicator of the surface environments on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toyota, T.; Kawaguchi, K.; Kurita, K.

2008-09-01

Introduction On the planets having atmosphere such as Mars various types of interactions between the atmosphere and the ground surface cause observable change in the surface pattern. Polar caps and aeolian features are typical examples. With the accumulation of satellitebased exploratory data, time-variable surface patterns have been focused and investigated extensively [1,2], because they can be direct indicators of the changing surface environments. Here we report two types of time-variable surface patterns that have been unidentified until now. One is dark halo near the top of high altitude volcanoes in Tharsis region. The other is brightness of the Outer Lobe of Double Layered Ejecta crater at the northern lowlands. Both have almost no associated topography and they are only recognized in visible/IR images as albedo patterns. Dark halo near the top of high altitude volcanoes in the Tharsis region Fig. 1 shows MOC wide-angle image of Pavonis Mons (R1400388NRed). The large caldera can be seen at the top of the volcano. Surrounding the caldera there exists a dark halo. Fig. 1B is MOC wide-angle image which shows detailed structure of the dark halo in the SW part. The dark zone is not uniform and instead it is composed of many slender dark stripes aligned in radial direction from the top (caldera center). Each unit is spindle-shaped with length of 30- 50km and width at the middle part of 5km. Spindles seem to start from higher position because it is always clear and darker. The initiation point is quite narrow region, which can be considered as a point. In many cases, there exist no recognisable obstacles at the initiation point. This is a remarkable difference from the wind streaks, which is caused by erosion/sedimentation of wind by local turbulence behind topographical anomaly. This makes us to consider something is emanating from subsurface, blown off by the mountain winds and deposited in downwind part. Similar pattern is observed in high altitude large volume volcanoes in Tharsis region such as Olympus Mons, Arsia Mons, Ascraeus Mons and Alba Patera EPSC Abstracts, Vol. 3, EPSC2008-A-00513, 2008 European Planetary Science Congress, Author(s) 2008 whereas it is not recognized in Celaunius Tholus, Tharsis Tholus and Elysium Mons. Because of the numbers of available images and stable climate situation, we have intensively investigated the pattern at Pavonis Mons. MOC wide-angle images and THEMIS-VIS images are used to check the temporal variation of the pattern from 1999 to 2007. In Fig. 2 the time-sequential images taking the SW flank show temporal pattern change of the dark halo. The drastic change can be found between 2000 and 2003. The assemblage of dark spindle-shaped pattern at higher positions before 2003 completely disappeared in the 2003 and the front of the halo receded to lower position. In 2001, a huge global dust storm has occurred. The resultant effect on the global climate by this dust storm is decrease in global daytime temperature and increase in global nighttime temperature due to the dust green house effect [2]. Since the dark halo appears to be formed in nighttime (the pattern is consistent with down-slope wind, which would be dominant at nigh time on the surface of high mountain.), the increase of the nighttime temperature should be responsible for erasing the pattern. Not only the position of the front of the dark halo but also the darkness changes with time. DN at the front position is determined by taking the difference from the reference point near the caldera. The maximum contrast around Ls=50 deg. and the minimum contrast around Ls=270 deg. are obtained. This indicates seasonal variation, which strongly suggests meteorological variation such as the atmospheric pressure controls the surface pattern. Fig. 3 shows THEMIS-VIS image, THEMIS-IRNighttime image and THEMIS-IR-Daytime image of the southern flank. THEMIS-VIS image clearly shows the upper boundary of the dark halo; brighter near the summit and darker in the lower position. THEMIS-IRDaytime image shows brighter color in the dark halo, which indicates higher temperature. The boundary completely coincides with that in VIS. THEMIS-IRNighttime image also shows brighter color in the dark halo. This variation in the brightness and hence the surface temperature in IR images is not consistent with general thermal inertia control between daytime and nighttime by the change of grain size. This enigmatic behavior may indicate the surface of dark halo has different thermal response to the irradiation by the sunlight at daytime and radiative cooling at nighttime. This might be possible if the surface is covered by mixture of fine silicate particles supported by continuous phase of ice. References [1] Geissler, P. E., (2005) JGR, 110, E02001. [2] Armstrong, J. C. et al., (2007) GRL, 34, L01202. [3] Smith M. D., (2004) Icarus, 167, 148-165. [4] Neakrase, L. et al., (2005) LPSC XXXZVI, P1898.

Annually laminated sequences in the internal structure of some Belgian stalagmites -- Importance for paleoclimatology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Genty, D.; Quinif, Y.

1996-01-01

Fifteen stalagmites from four caves and one sealed tunnel in southern Belgium are composed of alternations of annually deposited white-porous and dark-compact laminae. This is demonstrated by comparing the number of laminae with the local history of the site for modern stalagmites and with radioisotopic ages for Late Glacial and Holocene stalagmites. Annual cyclicity in the internal structure of these speleothems is explained by the highly seasonal variations of the water excess, which influences underground water flow. Comparison between climatic data and modern stalagmites of a closed tunnel shows that growth laminae can record climatic variations: (1) there is amore » good correlation (R = 0.84) between lamina thickness in a stalagmite and water excess; (2) during years with a high water excess, dark-compact laminae are more developed, which makes the speleothem darker. Vertical successions of several laminae represent microsequences that may have recorded climatic variations with a time resolution of 1/2 year. In a Late Glacial stalagmite, successive laminae microsequences form very regular cycles of 11 years separated by a thick dark-compact lamina. It is supported that, as for modern stalagmites, the thick dark-compact lamina corresponds to a period of high water excess. Hence, this 11-year cycle may reflect a climatic cycle.« less

Using a GCM analogue model to investigate the potential for Amazonian forest dieback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntingford, C.; Harris, P. P.; Gedney, N.; Cox, P. M.; Betts, R. A.; Marengo, J. A.; Gash, J. H. C.

A combined GCM analogue model and GCM land surface representation is used to investigate the influences of climatology and land surface parameterisation on modelled Amazonian vegetation change. This modelling structure (called IMOGEN) captures the main features of the changes in surface climate as estimated by a GCM with enhanced atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Advantage is taken of IMOGEN's computational speed which allows multiple simulations to be carried out to assess the robustness of the GCM results. The timing of forest dieback is found to be sensitive to the initial ``pre-industrial'' climate, as well as uncertainties in the representation of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange. Changing from a Q10 form for plant dark and maintanence respiration (as used in the coupled GCM runs) to a respiration proportional to maximum photosynthesis, reduces the biomass lost from Amazonia in the 21st century. Replacing the GCM control climate (which has about 25% too little rain in the annual mean over Amazonia) with an observed climatology increases the CO2 concentration at which rainfall drops to critical levels, and thereby further delays the dieback. On the other hand, calibration of the canopy photosynthesis model against Amazonian flux data tends to lead to earlier forest dieback. Further advances are required in both GCM rainfall simulation and land-surface process representation before a clearer picture will emerge on the timing of possible Amazonian forest dieback. However, it seems likely that these advances will overall lead to projections of later forest dieback as GCM control climates become more realistic.

Addressing Vermont's concerns on climate change on many levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, A. K.

2016-12-01

As a climate scientist, I realized about 12 years ago that one of my responsibilities was to help Vermont understand and adapt to climate change. My road-map has four components: 1) Newspaper articles, radio and TV interviews to explain climate issues and how to deal with them in plain English (about 100 so far) 2) Public talks across the state to schools, professional, business and citizens groups, the legislature and state government - in fact to anyone that asked - with a willingness to honestly and clearly address all issues raised (230 so far). 3) Specific research on how the climate and seasonal cycle of Vermont have changed in the past, and are likely to change in the future, exploring the unknowns. 4) A personal web-site to make all my writings, talks and research open access (http://alanbetts.com). Because Vermont is a small state with a rural and environmental ethos and a strong desire to understand, I have been able to reach across the state in a decade. In parallel, Vermont has put in place an ambitious renewable energy policy, which is well underway. My multi-faceted strategy is open, clear and transparently honest, aimed at helping society understand and deal with this critical issue. This is in sharp contrast with the secret, deceptive multifaceted strategy to discredit climate science by well-funded right-wing groups (see Dark Money by Jane Mayer), in support of their political and economic agenda, which has found little support in Vermont.

MODIS-VIIRS Intercalibration for Dark Target Aerosol Retrieval Over Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sawyer, V. R.; Levy, R. C.; Mattoo, S.; Quinn, G.; Veglio, P.

2016-12-01

Any future climate record for satellite aerosol retrieval will require continuity over multiple decades, longer than the lifespan of an individual satellite instrument. The Dark Target algorithm was developed for MODIS, which began taking observations in 1999; the two MODIS instruments currently in orbit are not expected to continue taking observations beyond the early 2020s. However, the algorithm is portable, and a Dark Target product for VIIRS is scheduled for release December 2016. Because MODIS and VIIRS operate at different wavelengths, resolutions, fields of view and orbital timing, the transition can introduce artifacts that must be corrected. Without these corrections, it will be difficult to find any changes that may occur in the global aerosol climate record over time periods that span the transition from MODIS to VIIRS retrievals. The University of Wisconsin-Madison SIPS team found thousands of matches between 2012 and 2016 in which Aqua-MODIS and Suomi-NPP VIIRS observe the same location at similar times and view angles. These matched cases are used to identify corresponding matches in the Intermediate File Format (IFF) aerosol retrievals for MODIS and VIIRS, which are compared to one another in turn. Because most known sources of disagreement between the two instruments have already been corrected during the IFF retrieval, the direct comparison between near-collocated cases shows only the differences that remain at local and regional scales. The comparison is further restricted to clear-sky cases over ocean, so that the investigation of seasonal, diurnal and geographic variation is not affected by uncertainties in the land surface or cloud contamination.

Regional Exploratory Analysis Between Atomospheric Aerosols and Precipitable Water in the Lower Troposhere via Inferential Statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez, B. S.; Ye, H.; Levy, R. C.; Fetzer, E. J.; Remer, L.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric aerosols expose high levels of uncertainty in regard to Earth's changing atmospheric energy budget. Continued exploration and analysis is necessary to obtain more complete understanding in which, and to what degree, aerosols contribute within climate feedbacks and global climate change. With the advent of global satellite retrievals, along with specific aerosol optical depth (AOD) Dark Target and Deep Blue algorithms, aerosols can now be better measured and analyzed. Aerosol effect on climate depends primarily on altitude, the reflectance albedo of the underlying surface, along with the presence of clouds and the dynamics thereof. As currently known, the majority of aerosol distribution and mixing occur in the lower troposphere from the surface upwards to around 2km. Additionally, being a primary greenhouse gas contributor, water vapor is significant to climate feedbacks and Earth's radiation budget. Feedbacks are generally reported from the top of atmosphere (TOA). Therefore, little is known of the relationship between water vapor and aerosols; specifically, in regional areas of the globe known for aerosol loading such as anthropogenic biomass burning in South America and naturally occurring dust blowing off the deserts in the African and Arabian peninsulas. Statistical regression and timeseries analysis are used in determining significant probabilities suggesting trends of both regional precipitable water (PW) and AOD increase and decrease over a 13-year time period from 2003-2015. Regions with statistically significant positive or negative trends of AOD and PW are analyzed in determining correlations, or lack thereof. This initial examination helps to deduce and better understand how aerosols contribute to the radiation budget and assessing climate change.

Dark exposure of petunia cuttings strongly improves adventitious root formation and enhances carbohydrate availability during rooting in the light.

PubMed

Klopotek, Yvonne; Haensch, Klaus-Thomas; Hause, Bettina; Hajirezaei, Mohammad-Reza; Druege, Uwe

2010-05-01

The effect of temporary dark exposure on adventitious root formation (ARF) in Petuniaxhybrida 'Mitchell' cuttings was investigated. Histological and metabolic changes in the cuttings during the dark treatment and subsequent rooting in the light were recorded. Excised cuttings were exposed to the dark for seven days at 10 degrees C followed by a nine-day rooting period in perlite or were rooted immediately for 16 days in a climate chamber at 22/20 degrees C (day/night) and a photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) of 100micromolm(-2)s(-1). Dark exposure prior to rooting increased, accelerated and synchronized ARF. The rooting period was reduced from 16 days (non-treated cuttings) to 9 days (treated cuttings). Under optimum conditions, despite the reduced rooting period, dark-exposed cuttings produced a higher number and length of roots than non-treated cuttings. An increase in temperature to 20 degrees C during the dark treatment or extending the cold dark exposure to 14 days caused a similar enhancement of root development compared to non-treated cuttings. Root meristem formation had already started during the dark treatment and was enhanced during the subsequent rooting period. Levels of soluble sugars (glucose, fructose and sucrose) and starch in leaf and basal stem tissues significantly decreased during the seven days of dark exposure. This depletion was, however, compensated during rooting after 6 and 24h for soluble sugars in leaves and the basal stem, respectively, whereas the sucrose level in the basal stem was already increased at 6h. The association of higher carbohydrate levels with improved rooting in previously dark-exposed versus non-treated cuttings indicates that increased post-darkness carbohydrate availability and allocation towards the stem base contribute to ARF under the influence of dark treatment and provide energy for cell growth subject to a rising sink intensity in the base of the cutting. Copyright 2009 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Projected Impacts of 21st Century Climate Change on Potential Habitat for Vegetation and Forest Types in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, A. J.; Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Cantin, A.; Conard, S. G.

2015-12-01

Global GCMs have demonstrated profound potential for projections to affect the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems and individual species at all hierarchical levels. We modeled progression of potential Russian ecotones and forest-forming species as the climate changes. Large-scale bioclimatic models were developed to predict Russian zonal vegetation (RuBCliM) and forest types (ForCliM) from three bioclimatic indices (1) growing degree-days above 5 degrees C; (2) negative degree-days below 0 C ; and (3) an annual moisture index (ratio of growing degree days to annual precipitation). The presence or absence of continuous permafrost was explicitly included in the models as limiting the forests and tree species distribution. All simulations to predict vegetation change across Russia were run by coupling our bioclimatic models with bioclimatic indices and the permafrost distribution for the baseline period and for the future 2020, 2050 and 2100 simulated by 3 GCMs (CGCM3.1, HadCM3 and IPSLCM4) and 3 climate change scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). Under these climate scenarios, it is projected the zonobiomes will shift far northward to reach equilibrium with the change in climate. Under the warmer and drier projected future climate, about half of Russia would be suitable for the forest-steppe ecotone and grasslands, rather than for forests. Water stress tolerant light-needled taiga would have an increased advantage over water-loving dark-needled taiga. Permafrost-tolerant L. dahurica taiga would remain the dominant forest across permafrost. Increases in severe fire weather would lead to increases in large, high-severity fires, especially at boundaries between forest ecotones, which can be expected to facilitate a more rapid progression of vegetation towards a new equilibrium with the climate. Adaptation to climate change may be facilitated by: assisting migration of forests by seed transfers to establish genotypes that may be more ecologically suited as climate changes; and the introduction of suitable agricultural crops that may be potentially adapted to a warmer climate in the expected steppe and forest-steppe.

Threat to the Planet: Dark and Bright Sides of Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, J. E.

2008-12-01

. Earth's history reveals that climate is sensitive to forcings, imposed perturbations of the planet's energy balance. Human-made forcings now dwarf natural forcings. Despite the climate system's great inertia, climate changes are emerging above the 'noise' of unforced chaotic variability, and greater changes are 'in the pipeline'. There is a clear and present danger of the climate passing certain 'tipping points', climate states where warming in the pipeline and positive feedbacks guarantee large relatively rapid changes with no additional climate forcing. The fact that we are close to dangerous consequences has a bright side: we must reduce greenhouse gas emissions to a level that will minimize many impacts that had begun to seem almost inevitable, including ocean acidification, intensification of regional climate extremes, and fresh water shortages. Actions required to stabilize climate, including prompt phase-out of coal emissions, are defined well enough by our understanding of the climate system, the carbon cycle, and fossil fuel reservoirs. These actions would also yield cleaner air and water, with ancillary benefits for human health, agricultural productivity, and wildlife preservation. Yet the actions required to stabilize climate are not being pursued. Denial of climate change by the fossil fuel industry and reactionary governments has been replaced by 'greenwash'. The policies of even the 'greenest' nations are demonstrably impotent for the purpose of averting climate disasters. I conclude that inaction stems in large part from 'success' of special financial interests in subverting the intent of the democratic process to operate for the general good. The consequence is intergenerational inequity and injustice, affecting negatively the young and the unborn. The defense of prior generations, that they 'did not know', is no longer viable. Indeed, actions by fossil fuel interests that served to deceive the public about the dangers of human-made climate change raise questions of ethics and legal liabilities. Youth, at least those who are not too young or unborn, have recourse through democratic systems, but continued failure of the political process may cause increasing public protests.

Net radiative forcing from widespread deployment of photovoltaics.

PubMed

Nemet, Gregory F

2009-03-15

If photovoltaics (PV) are to contribute significantly to stabilizing the climate, they will need to be deployed on the scale of multiple terawatts. Installation of that much PV would cover substantial portions of the Earth's surface with dark-colored, sunlight-absorbing panels, reducing the Earth's albedo. How much radiative forcing would result from this change in land use? How does this amount compare to the radiative forcing avoided by substituting PV for fossil fuels? This analysis uses a series of simple equations to compare the two effects and finds that substitution dominates; the avoided radiative forcing due to substitution of PV for fossil fuels is approximately 30 times largerthan the forcing due to albedo modification. Sensitivity analysis, including discounting of future costs and benefits, identifies unfavorable yet plausible configurations in which the albedo effect substantially reduces the climatic benefits of PV. The value of PV as a climate mitigation option depends on how it is deployed, not just how much it is deployed--efficiency of PV systems and the carbon intensity of the substituted energy are particularly important

Fens as whole-ecosystem gauges of groundwater recharge under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drexler, Judith Z.; Knifong, Donna L.; JayLee Tuil,; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.

2013-01-01

Currently, little is known about the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge in the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascade Range of California or other mountainous regions of the world. The purpose of this study was to determine whether small alpine peat lands called fens can be used as whole-ecosystem gauges of groundwater recharge through time. Fens are sustained by groundwater discharge and are highly sensitive to changes in groundwater flow due to hydrologic disturbance including climate change. Seven fens in the Sierra Nevada and southern Cascade Range were studied over a 50-80 year period using historic aerial photography. In each aerial photograph, fen areas were identified as open lawn and partially treed areas that exhibited (1) dark brownish-green coloring or various shades of gray and black in black and white imagery and (2) mottling of colors and clustering of vegetation, which signified a distinct moss canopy with overlying clumped sedge vegetation. In addition to the aerial photography study, a climate analysis for the study sites was carried out using both measured data (U.S. Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service SNOwpack TELemetry system) and modeled data (a downscaled version of the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) for the period from 1951 to 2010. Over the study period, the five fens in the Sierra Nevada were found to be decreasing between 10% and 16% in delineated area. The climate analysis revealed significant increases through time in annual mean minimum temperature (Tmin) between 1951-1980 and 1981-2010. In addition, April 1 snow water equivalent and snowpack longevity also decreased between 1951-1980 and 1981-2010. For the fens in the Cascade Range, there were no discernible changes in delineated area. At these sites, increases in Tmin occurred only within the past 20-25 years and decreases in snowpack longevity were more subtle. A conceptual model is presented, which illustrates that basic differences in hydrogeology of the Sierra Nevada vs. the Cascade Range may control the threshold at which changes in delineated fen areas are discernible. Overall, the results from this study show that fens in the Sierra Nevada have strong potential as whole ecosystem gauges for determining long-term changes in groundwater recharge under climate change. Due to either more moderate climate change and/or hydrogeological differences, fens in the southern Cascade Range currently do not appear to have the same utility. A greater sample size of fens in the Sierra Nevada is needed to confirm the general applicability of this method. In addition, future work needs to focus on integrating fen monitoring with geochemical and/or isotopic process-level studies in order to quantify changes in groundwater recharge identified using this new approach.

Climate Science in Social Media: What's Worked, and What Hasn't

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinclair, P.

2015-12-01

A common conception of social media is that the definition of success is a huge number of viewers and followers. While these outcomes not undesirable, they are not the only signs of success. More important than the size of the audience, is how well that audience follows and in turn, propagates the desired message. Dark Snow project has been successful in driving a global conversation about the Greenland ice sheet, not by creating huge numbers of viewers and followers, but due to a significant, and highly motivated, following among media gatekeepers, academic messengers, and social media activists. It's very important that, from the start, the Dark Snow story - that changes in ice sheet albedo may be driving increased melt, was effectively encoded, or "branded", in the project's name - "Dark Snow" - a vivid and easily illustrated visual image. A simple concept that is easy to describe and understand, but profound in implication, has allowed for wide discussion among professionals in science and media, as well as the general public.

Changes of biomass, lipid content and fatty acids composition under a light-dark cyclic culture of Chlorella pyrenoidosa in response to different temperature.

PubMed

Han, Feifei; Wang, Weiliang; Li, Yuanguang; Shen, Guomin; Wan, Minxi; Wang, Jun

2013-03-01

For outdoor culture with light-dark cycle, the biomass and lipid losing at night resulted in lowering the biomass and lipid productivity. Previous studies focused on the contents of carbohydrate and protein in response to temperature for production of animal feed and nutritional supplements. In this study, the effects of temperature on the variations of biomass concentration, lipid content and fatty acids composition for production of biofuels were investigated under a light-dark cyclic culture. The results showed that 30 °C was the optimal daytime temperature for achieving high biomass and lipid; raising daytime temperature can lessen night biomass loss and stimulate lipid accumulation. Subsequently, outdoor culture strategy has been improved: keeping culture broth no less than 30 °C during the daytime. Consequently, the net biomass and lipid productivity were increased by 37.8% and 44.9% when compared to the former culture process in the same outdoor climatic conditions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterizing the drivers of seedling leaf gas exchange responses to warming and altered precipitation: indirect and direct effects.

PubMed

Smith, Nicholas G; Pold, Grace; Goranson, Carol; Dukes, Jeffrey S

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic forces are projected to lead to warmer temperatures and altered precipitation patterns globally. The impact of these climatic changes on the uptake of carbon by the land surface will, in part, determine the rate and magnitude of these changes. However, there is a great deal of uncertainty in how terrestrial ecosystems will respond to climate in the future. Here, we used a fully factorial warming (four levels) by precipitation (three levels) manipulation experiment in an old-field ecosystem in the northeastern USA to examine the impact of climatic changes on leaf carbon exchange in five species of deciduous tree seedlings. We found that photosynthesis generally increased in response to increasing precipitation and decreased in response to warming. Respiration was less sensitive to the treatments. The net result was greater leaf carbon uptake in wetter and cooler conditions across all species. Structural equation modelling revealed the primary pathway through which climate impacted leaf carbon exchange. Net photosynthesis increased with increasing stomatal conductance and photosynthetic enzyme capacity (V cmax ), and decreased with increasing respiration of leaves. Soil moisture and leaf temperature at the time of measurement most heavily influenced these primary drivers of net photosynthesis. Leaf respiration increased with increasing soil moisture, leaf temperature, and photosynthetic supply of substrates. Counter to the soil moisture response, respiration decreased with increasing precipitation amount, indicating that the response to short- (i.e. soil moisture) versus long-term (i.e. precipitation amount) water stress differed, possibly as a result of changes in the relative amounts of growth and maintenance demand for respiration over time. These data (>500 paired measurements of light and dark leaf gas exchange), now publicly available, detail the pathways by which climate can impact leaf gas exchange and could be useful for testing assumptions in land surface models. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

Characterizing the drivers of seedling leaf gas exchange responses to warming and altered precipitation: indirect and direct effects

PubMed Central

Smith, Nicholas G.; Pold, Grace; Goranson, Carol; Dukes, Jeffrey S.

2016-01-01

Anthropogenic forces are projected to lead to warmer temperatures and altered precipitation patterns globally. The impact of these climatic changes on the uptake of carbon by the land surface will, in part, determine the rate and magnitude of these changes. However, there is a great deal of uncertainty in how terrestrial ecosystems will respond to climate in the future. Here, we used a fully factorial warming (four levels) by precipitation (three levels) manipulation experiment in an old-field ecosystem in the northeastern USA to examine the impact of climatic changes on leaf carbon exchange in five species of deciduous tree seedlings. We found that photosynthesis generally increased in response to increasing precipitation and decreased in response to warming. Respiration was less sensitive to the treatments. The net result was greater leaf carbon uptake in wetter and cooler conditions across all species. Structural equation modelling revealed the primary pathway through which climate impacted leaf carbon exchange. Net photosynthesis increased with increasing stomatal conductance and photosynthetic enzyme capacity (Vcmax), and decreased with increasing respiration of leaves. Soil moisture and leaf temperature at the time of measurement most heavily influenced these primary drivers of net photosynthesis. Leaf respiration increased with increasing soil moisture, leaf temperature, and photosynthetic supply of substrates. Counter to the soil moisture response, respiration decreased with increasing precipitation amount, indicating that the response to short- (i.e. soil moisture) versus long-term (i.e. precipitation amount) water stress differed, possibly as a result of changes in the relative amounts of growth and maintenance demand for respiration over time. These data (>500 paired measurements of light and dark leaf gas exchange), now publicly available, detail the pathways by which climate can impact leaf gas exchange and could be useful for testing assumptions in land surface models. PMID:27658816

Global climate change driven by soot at the K-Pg boundary as the cause of the mass extinction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaiho, Kunio; Oshima, Naga; Adachi, Kouji; Adachi, Yukimasa; Mizukami, Takuya; Fujibayashi, Megumu; Saito, Ryosuke

2016-07-01

The mass extinction of life 66 million years ago at the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary, marked by the extinctions of dinosaurs and shallow marine organisms, is important because it led to the macroevolution of mammals and appearance of humans. The current hypothesis for the extinction is that an asteroid impact in present-day Mexico formed condensed aerosols in the stratosphere, which caused the cessation of photosynthesis and global near-freezing conditions. Here, we show that the stratospheric aerosols did not induce darkness that resulted in milder cooling than previously thought. We propose a new hypothesis that latitude-dependent climate changes caused by massive stratospheric soot explain the known mortality and survival on land and in oceans at the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary. The stratospheric soot was ejected from the oil-rich area by the asteroid impact and was spread globally. The soot aerosols caused sufficiently colder climates at mid-high latitudes and drought with milder cooling at low latitudes on land, in addition to causing limited cessation of photosynthesis in global oceans within a few months to two years after the impact, followed by surface-water cooling in global oceans in a few years. The rapid climate change induced terrestrial extinctions followed by marine extinctions over several years.

Global climate change driven by soot at the K-Pg boundary as the cause of the mass extinction

PubMed Central

Kaiho, Kunio; Oshima, Naga; Adachi, Kouji; Adachi, Yukimasa; Mizukami, Takuya; Fujibayashi, Megumu; Saito, Ryosuke

2016-01-01

The mass extinction of life 66 million years ago at the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary, marked by the extinctions of dinosaurs and shallow marine organisms, is important because it led to the macroevolution of mammals and appearance of humans. The current hypothesis for the extinction is that an asteroid impact in present-day Mexico formed condensed aerosols in the stratosphere, which caused the cessation of photosynthesis and global near-freezing conditions. Here, we show that the stratospheric aerosols did not induce darkness that resulted in milder cooling than previously thought. We propose a new hypothesis that latitude-dependent climate changes caused by massive stratospheric soot explain the known mortality and survival on land and in oceans at the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary. The stratospheric soot was ejected from the oil-rich area by the asteroid impact and was spread globally. The soot aerosols caused sufficiently colder climates at mid–high latitudes and drought with milder cooling at low latitudes on land, in addition to causing limited cessation of photosynthesis in global oceans within a few months to two years after the impact, followed by surface-water cooling in global oceans in a few years. The rapid climate change induced terrestrial extinctions followed by marine extinctions over several years. PMID:27414998

Global climate change driven by soot at the K-Pg boundary as the cause of the mass extinction.

PubMed

Kaiho, Kunio; Oshima, Naga; Adachi, Kouji; Adachi, Yukimasa; Mizukami, Takuya; Fujibayashi, Megumu; Saito, Ryosuke

2016-07-14

The mass extinction of life 66 million years ago at the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary, marked by the extinctions of dinosaurs and shallow marine organisms, is important because it led to the macroevolution of mammals and appearance of humans. The current hypothesis for the extinction is that an asteroid impact in present-day Mexico formed condensed aerosols in the stratosphere, which caused the cessation of photosynthesis and global near-freezing conditions. Here, we show that the stratospheric aerosols did not induce darkness that resulted in milder cooling than previously thought. We propose a new hypothesis that latitude-dependent climate changes caused by massive stratospheric soot explain the known mortality and survival on land and in oceans at the Cretaceous/Paleogene boundary. The stratospheric soot was ejected from the oil-rich area by the asteroid impact and was spread globally. The soot aerosols caused sufficiently colder climates at mid-high latitudes and drought with milder cooling at low latitudes on land, in addition to causing limited cessation of photosynthesis in global oceans within a few months to two years after the impact, followed by surface-water cooling in global oceans in a few years. The rapid climate change induced terrestrial extinctions followed by marine extinctions over several years.

After more than a decade of soil moisture deficit, tropical rainforest trees maintain photosynthetic capacity, despite increased leaf respiration.

PubMed

Rowland, Lucy; Lobo-do-Vale, Raquel L; Christoffersen, Bradley O; Melém, Eliane A; Kruijt, Bart; Vasconcelos, Steel S; Domingues, Tomas; Binks, Oliver J; Oliveira, Alex A R; Metcalfe, Daniel; da Costa, Antonio C L; Mencuccini, Maurizio; Meir, Patrick

2015-12-01

Determining climate change feedbacks from tropical rainforests requires an understanding of how carbon gain through photosynthesis and loss through respiration will be altered. One of the key changes that tropical rainforests may experience under future climate change scenarios is reduced soil moisture availability. In this study we examine if and how both leaf photosynthesis and leaf dark respiration acclimate following more than 12 years of experimental soil moisture deficit, via a through-fall exclusion experiment (TFE) in an eastern Amazonian rainforest. We find that experimentally drought-stressed trees and taxa maintain the same maximum leaf photosynthetic capacity as trees in corresponding control forest, independent of their susceptibility to drought-induced mortality. We hypothesize that photosynthetic capacity is maintained across all treatments and taxa to take advantage of short-lived periods of high moisture availability, when stomatal conductance (gs ) and photosynthesis can increase rapidly, potentially compensating for reduced assimilate supply at other times. Average leaf dark respiration (Rd ) was elevated in the TFE-treated forest trees relative to the control by 28.2 ± 2.8% (mean ± one standard error). This mean Rd value was dominated by a 48.5 ± 3.6% increase in the Rd of drought-sensitive taxa, and likely reflects the need for additional metabolic support required for stress-related repair, and hydraulic or osmotic maintenance processes. Following soil moisture deficit that is maintained for several years, our data suggest that changes in respiration drive greater shifts in the canopy carbon balance, than changes in photosynthetic capacity. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Revisiting the climate impacts of cool roofs around the globe using an Earth system model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jiachen; Zhang, Kai; Liu, Junfeng; Ban-Weiss, George

2016-08-01

Solar reflective ‘cool roofs’ absorb less sunlight than traditional dark roofs, reducing solar heat gain, and decreasing the amount of heat transferred to the atmosphere. Widespread adoption of cool roofs could therefore reduce temperatures in urban areas, partially mitigating the urban heat island effect, and contributing to reversing the local impacts of global climate change. The impacts of cool roofs on global climate remain debated by past research and are uncertain. Using a sophisticated Earth system model, the impacts of cool roofs on climate are investigated at urban, continental, and global scales. We find that global adoption of cool roofs in urban areas reduces urban heat islands everywhere, with an annual- and global-mean decrease from 1.6 to 1.2 K. Decreases are statistically significant, except for some areas in Africa and Mexico where urban fraction is low, and some high-latitude areas during wintertime. Analysis of the surface and TOA energy budget in urban regions at continental-scale shows cool roofs causing increases in solar radiation leaving the Earth-atmosphere system in most regions around the globe, though the presence of aerosols and clouds are found to partially offset increases in upward radiation. Aerosols dampen cool roof-induced increases in upward solar radiation, ranging from 4% in the United States to 18% in more polluted China. Adoption of cool roofs also causes statistically significant reductions in surface air temperatures in urbanized regions of China (-0.11 ± 0.10 K) and the United States (-0.14 ± 0.12 K); India and Europe show statistically insignificant changes. Though past research has disagreed on whether widespread adoption of cool roofs would cool or warm global climate, these studies have lacked analysis on the statistical significance of global temperature changes. The research presented here indicates that adoption of cool roofs around the globe would lead to statistically insignificant reductions in global mean air temperature (-0.0021 ± 0.026 K). Thus, we suggest that while cool roofs are an effective tool for reducing building energy use in hot climates, urban heat islands, and regional air temperatures, their influence on global climate is likely negligible.

Revisiting the Climate Impacts of Cool Roofs around the Globe Using an Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Ban-Weiss, G. A.; Zhang, K.; Liu, J.

2016-12-01

Solar reflective "cool roofs" absorb less sunlight than traditional dark roofs, reducing solar heat gain, and decreasing the amount of heat transferred to the atmosphere. Widespread adoption of cool roofs could therefore reduce temperatures in urban areas, partially mitigating the urban heat island effect, and contributing to reversing the local impacts of global climate change. The impacts of cool roofs on global climate remain debated by past research and are uncertain. Using a sophisticated Earth system model, the impacts of cool roofs on climate are investigated at urban, continental, and global scales. We find that global adoption of cool roofs in urban areas reduces urban heat islands everywhere, with an annual- and global-mean decrease from 1.6 to 1.2 K. Decreases are statistically significant, except for some areas in Africa and Mexico where urban fraction is low, and some high-latitude areas during wintertime. Analysis of the surface and TOA energy budget in urban regions at continental-scale shows cool roofs causing increases in solar radiation leaving the Earth-atmosphere system in most regions around the globe, though the presence of aerosols and clouds are found to partially offset increases in upward radiation. Aerosols dampen cool roof-induced increases in upward solar radiation, ranging from 4% in the United States to 18% in more polluted China. Adoption of cool roofs also causes statistically significant reductions in surface air temperatures in urbanized regions of China (-0.11±0.10 K) and the United States (-0.14±0.12 K); India and Europe show statistically insignificant changes. Though past research has disagreed on whether widespread adoption of cool roofs would cool or warm global climate, these studies have lacked analysis on the statistical significance of global temperature changes. The research presented here indicates that adoption of cool roofs around the globe would lead to statistically insignificant reductions in global mean air temperature (-0.0021 ± 0.026 K). Thus, we suggest that while cool roofs are an effective tool for reducing building energy use in hot climates, urban heat islands, and regional air temperatures, their influence on global climate is likely negligible.

Impact of climate change and human activity on soil landscapes over the past 12,300 years.

PubMed

Rothacker, Leo; Dosseto, Anthony; Francke, Alexander; Chivas, Allan R; Vigier, Nathalie; Kotarba-Morley, Anna M; Menozzi, Davide

2018-01-10

Soils are key to ecosystems and human societies, and their critical importance requires a better understanding of how they evolve through time. However, identifying the role of natural climate change versus human activity (e.g. agriculture) on soil evolution is difficult. Here we show that for most of the past 12,300 years soil erosion and development were impacted differently by natural climate variability, as recorded by sediments deposited in Lake Dojran (Macedonia/Greece): short-lived ( < 1,000 years) climatic shifts had no effect on soil development but impacted soil erosion. This decoupling disappeared between 3,500 and 3,100 years ago, when the sedimentary record suggests an unprecedented erosion event associated with the development of agriculture in the region. Our results show unambiguously how differently soils evolved under natural climate variability (between 12,300 and 3,500 years ago) and later in response to intensifying human impact. The transition from natural to anthropogenic landscape started just before, or at, the onset of the Greek 'Dark Ages' (~3,200 cal yr BP). This could represent the earliest recorded sign of a negative feedback between civilization and environmental impact, where the development of agriculture impacted soil resources, which in turn resulted in a slowdown of civilization expansion.

Repeat Photography of Alaskan Glaciers and Landscapes as Both Art and as a Means of Communicating Climat Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molnia, B. F.

2013-12-01

For nearly 15 years, I have used repeat photography of Alaskan glaciers and landscapes to communicate to fellow scientists, policymakers, the media, and society that Alaskan glaciers and landscapes have been experiencing significant change in response to post-Little Ice Age climate change. I began this pursuit after being contacted by a U.S. Department of the Interior senior official who requested unequivocal and unambiguous documentation that climate change was real and underway. After considering several options as to how best respond to this challenge, I decided that if a picture is worth a thousand words, then a pair of photographs, both with the same field of view, spanning a century or more, and showing dramatic differences, would speak volumes to documenting that dynamic climate change is occurring over a very broad region of Alaska. To me, understating the obvious with photographic pairs was the best mechanism to present irrefutable, unambiguous, nonjudgmental, as well as unequivocal visual documentation that climate change was both underway and real. To date, more than 150 pairs that meet these criteria have been produced. What has surprised me most is that the many of the photographs contained in the pairs present beautiful images of stark, remote landscapes that convey the majestic nature of this dynamic region with its unique topography and landscapes. Typically, over periods of just several decades, the photographed landscapes change from black and white to blue and green. White ice becomes blue water and dark rock becomes lush vegetation. Repeat photography is a technique in which a historical photograph and a modern photograph, both having the same field of view, are compared and contrasted to quantitatively and qualitatively determine their similarities and differences. I have used this technique from both ground-based photo stations and airborne platforms at Alaskan locations in Kenai Fjords National Park, Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve, Denali National Park and Preserve, the northern and northwestern Prince William Sound area of the Chugach National Forest, and the Mendenhall Glacier area of the Tongass National Forest to document and determine the extent of changing glaciers and landscapes. The use of repeat photography to document temporal change is not new. It originated as a glacier-monitoring technique in the European Alps more than 150 years ago. What is unique in this Alaskan application of repeat photography is the systematic approach being used to obtain photographic documentation of glacier and landscape change for every glacier-hosting fiord in western southcentral Alaska, as well as at many Alaskan valley glacier sites. What is also unique is the development of an annotated website which presents many pairs of these photographs as well as ancillary materials to help convey the basics of Alaskan glaciers and climate change. The website, titled 'Glacier and Landscape Change in Response to Changing Climate', (http://www.usgs.gov/climate_landuse/glaciers/) was awarded the 2010 USGS Shoemaker External Communications Award.

Sulfur isotope geochemistry of the central Japan Sea sediments (IODP Exp. 346) 20 150 kyr ago: Implications for the evolution of Asian Monsoon climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oshio, S.; Yamaguchi, K. E.; Takahashi, S.; Naraoka, H.; Ikehara, M.

2016-12-01

Asian monsoon climate system has started about 50 Ma, after the collision of the Indian and Eurasian continents followed by uplift of the Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau. It has influenced sediments in the Japan Sea, where cm-scale alternation of Corg-rich dark layers and Corg-poor light layers occurs. This is most likely due to temporal changes in the nutrient status and/or oceanic redox conditions, which are likely caused by the fluctuations in the intensity of continental weathering and ocean currents, both of which were ultimately caused by the variable monsoon system. In order to obtain insights into the evolving oceanic redox state and the monsoon system, we conducted sulfur speciation and isotope study for the marine sediment core samples recovered in the central Japan Sea by IODP Exp. 346. The light layers have lower Spy (0.03-0.25 wt.%) contents when compared to the dark layers (0.26-1.49 wt.%). The Corg contents have similar distribution (0.34-1.10 wt.% for light layers and 1.16-3.38 wt.% for dark layers). However, the SSO4 contents (0.02-.64 wt.%) and the δ34S values (-34 to -38‰) did not show such light-dark distinction. Elevated Spy/Corg ratios (0.03-1.00) in the dark layers are interpreted to represent sulfide formation in the anoxic water column by bacterial sulfate reduction. During deposition of light layers, oxidation of sulfide minerals could have resulted in formation of sulfate minerals without significant isotope fractionation, as observed in this study. Regardless of the type of the sediments (dark vs. light), sulfate was not limiting during bacterial sulfate reduction, as reflected in the sulfur isotope compositions. We speculate that, during deposition of dark layers, enhanced summer monsoon activity caused heavy rainfall and increased source-rock weathering, runoff of the Yangtze River, and nutrient input into the East China Sea and the Tsushima Warm Current. Inflow of nutrient-rich and less salty water into the Japan Sea triggered enhanced biological activity, water-column density stratification, transport of organic matter into deeper ocean and consumption of dissolved oxygen, and ultimately the creation of anoxic water body to allow bacterial sulfate reduction. (syngenetic sulfide formation)

Weathering and erosion of the polar layered deposits on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herkenhoff, K. E.

1990-01-01

The Martial polar layered deposits are widely believed to be composed of water ice and silicates, but the relative amount of each component is unknown. The conventional wisdom among Mars researchers is that the deposits were formed by periodic variations in the deposition of dust and ice caused by climate changes over the last 10 to 100 million years. It is assumed here that water ice is an important constituent of the layered deposits, that the deposits were formed by eolian processes, and that the origin and evolution of the north and south polar deposits were similar. Weathering of the layered deposits by sublimation of water ice can account for the geologic relationships in the polar regions. The nonvolatile components of the layered deposits appears to consist mainly of bright red dust, with small amounts of dark dust or sand. Dark dust, perhaps similar to the magnetic material found at the Viking Lander sites, may perferentially form filamentary residue particles upon weathering of the deposits. Once eroded, these particles may saltate to form the dark dunes found in both polar regions.

Hormonal, behavioral, and life-history traits exhibit correlated shifts in relation to population establishment in a novel environment.

PubMed

Atwell, Jonathan W; Cardoso, Gonçalo C; Whittaker, Danielle J; Price, Trevor D; Ketterson, Ellen D

2014-12-01

Climate change, habitat alteration, range expansions, and biological invasions are all predicted to require rapid shifts in multiple traits including behavior and life history, both for initial population establishment and subsequent adaptation. Hormonal mechanisms likely play a key role in facilitating or constraining plastic and genetic responses for suites of traits, but few studies have evaluated their role in shaping contemporary adaptation or diversification. We examined multiple phenotypic adjustments and associated hormonal changes following a recent (early 1980s) colonization event, in which a temperate-breeding songbird, the dark-eyed junco (Junco hyemalis), became established in the Mediterranean climate of San Diego, California. The milder climate has led to an extended breeding season and year-round residency, and we document shifts in multiple sexually selected behaviors and plumage traits. Testosterone titers in San Diego were elevated for longer but with a lower peak value compared to a nearby native-range population, and correlations between testosterone and related traits were similar within and among populations. A common garden study indicated that changes in testosterone likely represent plastic responses to the less seasonal environment of the city, providing the context against which subsequent genetic changes in morphology likely occurred. We argue that correlated shifts in multiple traits, organized by underlying physiology, may be a generally important element of many successful adjustments to changing environments.

Chloroplast avoidance movement as a sensitive indicator of relative water content during leaf desiccation in the dark.

PubMed

Nauš, Jan; Šmecko, Slavomír; Špundová, Martina

2016-08-01

In the context of global climate change, drought is one of the major stress factors with negative effect on photosynthesis and plant productivity. Currently, chlorophyll fluorescence parameters are widely used as indicators of plant stress, mainly owing to the rapid, non-destructive and simple measurements this technique allows. However, these parameters have been shown to have limited sensitivity for the monitoring of water deficit as leaf desiccation has relatively small effect on photosystem II photochemistry. In this study, we found that blue light-induced increase in leaf transmittance reflecting chloroplast avoidance movement was much more sensitive to a decrease in relative water content (RWC) than chlorophyll fluorescence parameters in dark-desiccating leaves of tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum L.) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.). Whereas the inhibition of chloroplast avoidance movement was detectable in leaves even with a small RWC decrease, the chlorophyll fluorescence parameters (F V/F M, V J, Ф PSII, NPQ) changed markedly only when RWC dropped below 70 %. For this reason, we propose light-induced chloroplast avoidance movement as a sensitive indicator of the decrease in leaf RWC. As our measurement of chloroplast movement using collimated transmittance is simple and non-destructive, it may be more suitable in some cases for the detection of plant stresses including water deficit than the conventionally used chlorophyll fluorescence methods.

Transcriptomes of Eight Arabidopsis thaliana Accessions Reveal Core Conserved, Genotype- and Organ-Specific Responses to Flooding Stress1[OPEN

PubMed Central

van Veen, Hans; Vashisht, Divya; Akman, Melis; Girke, Thomas; Mustroph, Angelika; Reinen, Emilie; Kooiker, Maarten; van Tienderen, Peter; Voesenek, Laurentius A.C.J.

2016-01-01

Climate change has increased the frequency and severity of flooding events, with significant negative impact on agricultural productivity. These events often submerge plant aerial organs and roots, limiting growth and survival due to a severe reduction in light reactions and gas exchange necessary for photosynthesis and respiration, respectively. To distinguish molecular responses to the compound stress imposed by submergence, we investigated transcriptomic adjustments to darkness in air and under submerged conditions using eight Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) accessions differing significantly in sensitivity to submergence. Evaluation of root and rosette transcriptomes revealed an early transcriptional and posttranscriptional response signature that was conserved primarily across genotypes, although flooding susceptibility-associated and genotype-specific responses also were uncovered. Posttranscriptional regulation encompassed darkness- and submergence-induced alternative splicing of transcripts from pathways involved in the alternative mobilization of energy reserves. The organ-specific transcriptome adjustments reflected the distinct physiological status of roots and shoots. Root-specific transcriptome changes included marked up-regulation of chloroplast-encoded photosynthesis and redox-related genes, whereas those of the rosette were related to the regulation of development and growth processes. We identified a novel set of tolerance genes, recognized mainly by quantitative differences. These included a transcriptome signature of more pronounced gluconeogenesis in tolerant accessions, a response that included stress-induced alternative splicing. This study provides organ-specific molecular resolution of genetic variation in submergence responses involving interactions between darkness and low-oxygen constraints of flooding stress and demonstrates that early transcriptome plasticity, including alternative splicing, is associated with the ability to cope with a compound environmental stress. PMID:27208254

Development, Production and Validation of the NOAA Solar Irradiance Climate Data Record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coddington, O.; Lean, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Snow, M. A.; Lindholm, D. M.

2015-12-01

A new climate data record of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI), including source code and supporting documentation is now publicly available as part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Climate Data Record (CDR) Program. Daily and monthly averaged values of TSI and SSI, with associated time and wavelength dependent uncertainties, are estimated from 1882 to the present with yearly averaged values since 1610, updated quarterly for the foreseeable future. The new Solar Irradiance Climate Data Record, jointly developed by the University of Colorado at Boulder's Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) and the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), is constructed from solar irradiance models that determine the changes from quiet Sun conditions when bright faculae and dark sunspots are present on the solar disk. The magnitudes of the irradiance changes that these features produce are determined from linear regression of the proxy Mg II index and sunspot area indices against the approximately decade-long solar irradiance measurements made by instruments on the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) spacecraft. We describe the model formulation, uncertainty estimates, operational implementation and validation approach. Future efforts to improve the uncertainty estimates of the Solar Irradiance CDR arising from model assumptions, and augmentation of the solar irradiance reconstructions with direct measurements from the Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS: launch date, July 2017) are also discussed.

Developing Starlight connections with UNESCO sites through the Biosphere Smart

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marin, Cipriano

2015-08-01

The large number of UNESCO Sites around the world, in outstanding sites ranging from small islands to cities, makes it possible to build and share a comprehensive knowledge base on good practices and policies on the preservation of the night skies consistent with the protection of the associated scientific, natural and cultural values. In this context, the Starlight Initiative and other organizations such as IDA play a catalytic role in an essential international process to promote comprehensive, holistic approaches on dark sky preservation, astronomical observation, environmental protection, responsible lighting, sustainable energy, climate change and global sustainability.Many of these places have the potential to become models of excellence to foster the recovery of the dark skies and its defence against light pollution, included some case studies mentioned in the Portal to the Heritage of Astronomy.Fighting light pollution and recovering starry sky are already elements of a new emerging culture in biosphere reserves and world heritage sites committed to acting on climate change and sustainable development. Over thirty territories, including biosphere reserves and world heritage sites, have been developed successful initiatives to ensure night sky quality and promote sustainable lighting. Clear night skies also provide sustainable income opportunities as tourists and visitors are eagerly looking for sites with impressive night skies.Taking into account the high visibility and the ability of UNESCO sites to replicate network experiences, the Starlight Initiative has launched an action In cooperation with Biosphere Smart, aimed at promoting the Benchmark sites.Biosphere Smart is a global observatory created in partnership with UNESCO MaB Programme to share good practices, and experiences among UNESCO sites. The Benchmark sites window allows access to all the information of the most relevant astronomical heritage sites, dark sky protected areas and other places committed to the preservation of the values associated with the night sky. A new step ahead in our common task of protecting the starry skies at UNESCO sites.

Late second-early first millennium BC abrupt climate changes in coastal Syria and their possible significance for the history of the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaniewski, D.; Paulissen, E.; Van Campo, E.; Weiss, H.; Otto, T.; Bretschneider, J.; Van Lerberghe, K.

2010-09-01

The alluvial deposits near Gibala-Tell Tweini provide a unique record of environmental history and food availability estimates covering the Late Bronze Age and the Early Iron Age. The refined pollen-derived climatic proxy suggests that drier climatic conditions occurred in the Mediterranean belt of Syria from the late 13th/early 12th centuries BC to the 9th century BC. This period corresponds with the time frame of the Late Bronze Age collapse and the subsequent Dark Age. The abrupt climate change at the end of the Late Bronze Age caused region-wide crop failures, leading towards socio-economic crises and unsustainability, forcing regional habitat-tracking. Archaeological data show that the first conflagration of Gibala occurred simultaneously with the destruction of the capital city Ugarit currently dated between 1194 and 1175 BC. Gibala redeveloped shortly after this destruction, with large-scale urbanization visible in two main architectural phases during the Early Iron Age I. The later Iron Age I city was destroyed during a second conflagration, which is radiocarbon-dated at circa 2950 cal yr BP. The data from Gibala-Tell Tweini provide evidence in support of the drought hypothesis as a triggering factor behind the Late Bronze Age collapse in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Induction of a carbon-starvation-related proteolysis in whole maize plants submitted to Light/Dark cycles and to extended darkness

PubMed

Brouquisse; Gaudillere; Raymond

1998-08-01

Three-week-old maize (Zea mays L.) plants were submitted to light/dark cycles and to prolonged darkness to investigate the occurrence of sugar-limitation effects in different parts of the whole plant. Soluble sugars fluctuated with light/dark cycles and dropped sharply during extended darkness. Significant decreases in protein level were observed after prolonged darkness in mature roots, root tips, and young leaves. Glutamine and asparagine (Asn) changed in opposite ways, with Asn increasing in the dark. After prolonged darkness the increase in Asn accounted for most of the nitrogen released by protein breakdown. Using polyclonal antibodies against a vacuolar root protease previously described (F. James, R. Brouquisse, C. Suire, A. Pradet, P. Raymond [1996] Biochem J 320: 283-292) or the 20S proteasome, we showed that the increase in proteolytic activities was related to an enrichment of roots in the vacuolar protease, with no change in the amount of 20S proteasome in either roots or leaves. Our results show that no significant net proteolysis is induced in any part of the plant during normal light/dark cycles, although changes in metabolism and growth appear soon after the beginning of the dark period, and starvation-related proteolysis probably appears in prolonged darkness earlier in sink than in mature tissues.

Effects of climate change on surface-water photochemistry: a review.

PubMed

De Laurentiis, Elisa; Minella, Marco; Maurino, Valter; Minero, Claudio; Vione, Davide

2014-10-01

Information concerning the link between surface-water photochemistry and climate is presently very scarce as only a few studies have been dedicated to the subject. On the basis of the limited knowledge that is currently available, the present inferences can be made as follows: (1) Warming can cause enhanced leaching of ionic solutes from the catchments to surface waters, including cations and more biologically labile anions such as sulphate. Preferential sulphate biodegradation followed by removal as organic sulphides in sediment could increase alkalinity, favouring the generation of the carbonate radical, CO3 (·-). However, this phenomenon would be easily offset by fluctuations of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC), which is strongly anticorrelated with CO3 (·-). Therefore, obtaining insight into DOC evolution is a key issue in understanding the link between photochemistry and climate. (2) Climate change could exacerbate water scarcity in the dry season in some regions. Fluctuations in the water column could deeply alter photochemistry that is usually favoured in shallower waters. However, the way water is lost would strongly affect the prevailing photoinduced processes. Water outflow without important changes in solute concentration would mostly favour reactions induced by the hydroxyl and carbonate radicals (·OH and CO3 (·-)). In contrast, evaporative concentration would enhance reactions mediated by singlet oxygen ((1)O2) and by the triplet states of chromophoric dissolved organic matter ((3)CDOM*). (3) In a warmer climate, the summer stratification period of lakes would last longer, thereby enhancing photochemical reactions in the epilimnion but at the same time keeping the hypolimnion water in the dark for longer periods.

Coral symbioses under prolonged environmental change: living near tolerance range limits.

PubMed

Sampayo, Eugenia M; Ridgway, Tyrone; Franceschinis, Lorenzo; Roff, George; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Dove, Sophie

2016-11-02

As climate change progresses, understanding the long-term response of corals and their endosymbionts (Symbiodinium) to prolonged environmental change is of immediate importance. Here, a total of 1152 fragments from 72 colonies of three common coral species (Stylophora pistillata, Pocillopora damicornis, Seriatopora hystrix) underwent a 32-month reciprocal depth transplantation. Genetic analysis showed that while S. hystrix maintained its generalist symbiont, some S. pistillata and P. damicornis underwent temporary changes in resident symbionts immediately after stress (transplantation; natural bleaching). These temporary changes were phylogenetically constrained to 'host-compatible' symbionts only and reversion to original symbionts occurred within 7 to 12 months, indicating long-term fidelity and stability of adult symbioses. Measurements of symbiont photo-physiology (dark adapted yield, pressure over photosystem II) and coral health (host protein, bleaching status, mortality) indicated a broad acclimatory capacity. However, this came at an apparent energetic expense as disproportionate mortality amongst symbioses that persisted outside their distribution range was observed following a natural bleaching event. As environmental changes due to climate change become more continuous in nature, sub-lethal effects linked to the existence near tolerance range limits coupled with the inability of adult coral colonies to change resident symbionts makes corals particularly susceptible to additional environmental fluctuations or stress events and reduces the resilience of coral populations.

Drivers of leaf carbon exchange capacity across biomes at the continental scale.

PubMed

Smith, Nicholas G; Dukes, Jeffrey S

2018-04-29

Realistic representations of plant carbon exchange processes are necessary to reliably simulate biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks. These processes are known to vary over time and space, though the drivers of the underlying rates are still widely debated in the literature. Here, we measured leaf carbon exchange in >500 individuals of 98 species from the Neotropics to high boreal biomes to determine the drivers of photosynthetic and dark respiration capacity. Covariate abiotic (long- and short-term climate) and biotic (plant type, plant size, ontogeny, water status) data were used to explore significant drivers of temperature-standardized leaf carbon exchange rates. Using model selection, we found the previous week's temperature and soil moisture at the time of measurement to be a better predictor of photosynthetic capacity than long-term climate, with the combination of high recent temperatures and low soil moisture tending to decrease photosynthetic capacity. Non-trees (annual and perennials) tended to have greater photosynthetic capacity than trees, and, within trees, adults tended to have greater photosynthetic capacity than juveniles, possibly as a result of differences in light availability. Dark respiration capacity was less responsive to the assessed drivers than photosynthetic capacity, with rates best predicted by multi-year average site temperature alone. Our results suggest that, across large spatial scales, photosynthetic capacity quickly adjusts to changing environmental conditions, namely light, temperature, and soil moisture. Respiratory capacity is more conservative and most responsive to longer-term conditions. Our results provide a framework for incorporating these processes into large-scale models and a data set to benchmark such models. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

ENSO in a warming world: interannual climate variability in the early Miocene Southern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, Bethany; Wilson, Gary; Lee, Daphne

2016-04-01

The El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant source of interannual variability in the modern-day climate system. ENSO is a quasi-periodic cycle with a recurrence interval of 2-8 years. A major question in modern climatology is how ENSO will respond to increased climatic warmth. ENSO-like (2-8 year) cycles have been detected in many palaeoclimate records for the Holocene. However, the temporal resolution of pre-Quaternary palaeoclimate archives is generally too coarse to investigate ENSO-scale variability. We present a 100-kyr record of ENSO-like variability during the second half of the Oligocene/Miocene Mi-1 event, a period of increasing global temperatures and Antarctic deglaciation (~23.032-2.93 Ma). This record is drawn from an annually laminated lacustrine diatomite from southern New Zealand, a region strongly affected by ENSO in the present day. The diatomite consists of seasonal alternations of light (diatom bloom) and dark (low diatom productivity) layers. Each light-dark couplet represents one year's sedimentation. Light-dark couplet thickness is characterised by ENSO-scale variability. We use high-resolution (sub-annual) measurements of colour spectra to detect couplet thickness variability. Wavelet analysis indicates that absolute values are modulated by orbital cycles. However, when orbital effects are taken into account, ENSO-like variability occurs throughout the entire depositional period, with no clear increase or reduction in relation to Antarctic deglaciation and increasing global warmth.

Radiative forcing by light-absorbing aerosols of pyrogenetic iron oxides.

PubMed

Ito, Akinori; Lin, Guangxing; Penner, Joyce E

2018-05-09

Iron (Fe) oxides in aerosols are known to absorb sun light and heat the atmosphere. However, the radiative forcing (RF) of light-absorbing aerosols of pyrogenetic Fe oxides is ignored in climate models. For the first time, we use a global chemical transport model and a radiative transfer model to estimate the RF by light-absorbing aerosols of pyrogenetic Fe oxides. The model results suggest that strongly absorbing Fe oxides (magnetite) contribute a RF that is about 10% of the RF due to black carbon (BC) over East Asia. The seasonal average of the RF due to dark Fe-rich mineral particles over East Asia (0.4-1.0 W m -2 ) is comparable to that over major biomass burning regions. This additional warming effect is amplified over polluted regions where the iron and steel industries have been recently developed. These findings may have important implications for the projection of the climate change, due to the rapid growth in energy consumption of the heavy industry in newly developing countries.

Global Monitoring of Martian Surface Albedo Changes from Orbital Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geissler, P.; Enga, M.; Mukherjee, P.

2013-12-01

Martian surface changes were first observed from orbit during the Mariner 9 and Viking Orbiter missions. They were found to be caused by eolian processes, produced by deposition of dust during regional and global dust storms and subsequent darkening of the surface through erosion and transportation of dust and sand. The albedo changes accumulated in the 20 years between Viking and Mars Global Surveyor were sufficient to alter the global circulation of winds and the climate of Mars according to model calculations (Fenton et al., Nature 2007), but little was known about the timing or frequency of the changes. Since 1999, we have had the benefit of continuous monitoring by a series of orbiting spacecraft that continues today with Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, Mars Odyssey, and Mars Express. Daily synoptic observations enable us to determine whether the surface albedo changes are gradual or episodic in nature and to record the seasons that the changes take place. High resolution images of surface morphology and atmospheric phenomena help identify the physical mechanisms responsible for the changes. From these data, we hope to learn the combinations of atmospheric conditions and sediment properties that produce surface changes on Mars and possibly predict when they will take place in the future. Martian surface changes are particularly conspicuous in low albedo terrain, where even a thin layer of bright dust brightens the surface drastically. Equatorial dark areas are repeatedly coated and recoated by dust, which is later shed from the surface by a variety of mechanisms. An example is Syrtis Major, suddenly buried in bright dust by the global dust storm of 2001. Persistent easterly winds blew much of the dust cover away over the course of the next Martian year, but episodic changes continue today, particularly during southern summer when regional dust storms are rife. Another such region is Solis Planum, south of the Valles Marineris, where changes take place relentlessly in all seasons as bright dust and dark sand battle to dominate the landscape. Elsewhere, gradual processes steadily shift albedo boundaries between bright and dark terrain. Dark terrain near the Spirit rover landing site is gradually spreading to the north, driven by seasonal southerly winds. A bright fringe of newly deposited dust appears ahead of the moving boundary, populated by wind streaks and dust avalanches. Dark terrain at higher latitudes gradually creeps towards the equator by the dust cleaning action of dust devils, for example at Nilosytis (43°N, 85°E). Much less obvious is the deposition and erosion of dust on already bright, dust-covered terrain. Changes in the distribution of fresh dust take place frequently in the region surrounding the Tharsis Montes. Dust in this high altitude zone is constantly on the move as faint dark streaks mark the removal of recently deposited dust that is only slightly brighter than the dust already settled on the surface. Dramatic deposition of dust onto dusty terrain took place at much lower elevations in northwestern Amazonis between 2002 and 2005. Since then, the dust has been energetically eroded by towering dust devils that cluster here each summer.

Convergent acclimation of leaf photosynthesis and respiration to prevailing ambient temperatures under current and warmer climates in Eucalyptus tereticornis.

PubMed

Aspinwall, Michael J; Drake, John E; Campany, Courtney; Vårhammar, Angelica; Ghannoum, Oula; Tissue, David T; Reich, Peter B; Tjoelker, Mark G

2016-10-01

Understanding physiological acclimation of photosynthesis and respiration is important in elucidating the metabolic performance of trees in a changing climate. Does physiological acclimation to climate warming mirror acclimation to seasonal temperature changes? We grew Eucalyptus tereticornis trees in the field for 14 months inside 9-m tall whole-tree chambers tracking ambient air temperature (Tair ) or ambient Tair  + 3°C (i.e. 'warmed'). We measured light- and CO2 -saturated net photosynthesis (Amax ) and night-time dark respiration (R) each month at 25°C to quantify acclimation. Tree growth was measured, and leaf nitrogen (N) and total nonstructural carbohydrate (TNC) concentrations were determined to investigate mechanisms of acclimation. Warming reduced Amax and R measured at 25°C compared to ambient-grown trees. Both traits also declined as mean daily Tair increased, and did so in a similar way across temperature treatments. Amax and R (at 25°C) both increased as TNC concentrations increased seasonally; these relationships appeared to arise from source-sink imbalances, suggesting potential substrate regulation of thermal acclimation. We found that photosynthesis and respiration each acclimated equivalently to experimental warming and seasonal temperature change of a similar magnitude, reflecting a common, nearly homeostatic constraint on leaf carbon exchange that will be important in governing tree responses to climate warming. © 2016 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2016 New Phytologist Trust.

What Goes Up Must Come Down: The Lifecycle of Convective Clouds (492nd Brookhaven Lecture)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jensen, Michael

Some clouds look like cotton balls and others like anvils. Some bring rain, some snow and sleet, and others, just shade. But, whether big and billowy or dark and stormy, clouds affect far more than the weather each day. Armed with measurements of clouds’ updrafts and downdrafts—which resemble airflow in a convection oven—and many other atmospheric interactions, scientists from Brookhaven Lab and other institutions around the world are developing models that are crucial for understanding Earth’s climate and forecasting future climate change. During his lecture, Dr. Jensen provides an overview of the importance of clouds in the Earth’s climate systemmore » before explaining how convective clouds form, grow, and dissipate. His discussion includes findings from the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E), a major collaborative experiment between U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and NASA scientists to document precipitation, clouds, winds, and moisture in 3-D for a holistic view of convective clouds and their environment.« less

Successful Climate Science Communication Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinclair, P.

2016-12-01

In the past decade, efforts to communicate the facts of global change have not successfully moved political leaders and the general public to action. In response, a number of collaborative efforts between scientists and professional communicators, writers, journalists, bloggers, filmmakers, artists and others have arisen seeking to bridge that gap. As a result, a new cadre of science-literate communicators, and media-savvy scientists have made themselves visible across diverse mainstream, traditional, and social media outlets. Because of these collaborations, in recent years, misinformation, and disinformation have been successfully met with accurate and credible rebuttals within a single news cycle.Examples of these efforts is the Dark Snow Project, a science/communication collaboration focusing initially on accelerated arctic melt and sea level rise, and the Climate Science Rapid Response team, which matches professional journalists with appropriate science experts in order to respond within a single news cycle to misinformation or misunderstandings about climate science.The session will discuss successful examples and suggest creative approaches for the future.

MEST- avoid next extinction by a space-time effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Dayong

2013-03-01

Sun's companion-dark hole seasonal took its dark comets belt and much dark matter to impact near our earth. And some of them probability hit on our earth. So this model kept and triggered periodic mass extinctions on our earth every 25 to 27 million years. After every impaction, many dark comets with very special tilted orbits were arrested and lurked in solar system. When the dark hole-Tyche goes near the solar system again, they will impact near planets. The Tyche, dark comet and Oort Cloud have their space-time center. Because the space-time are frequency and amplitude square of wave. Because the wave (space-time) can make a field, and gas has more wave and fluctuate. So they like dense gas ball and a dark dense field. They can absorb the space-time and wave. So they are ``dark'' like the dark matter which can break genetic codes of our lives by a dark space-time effect. So the upcoming next impaction will cause current ``biodiversity loss.'' The dark matter can change dead plants and animals to coal, oil and natural gas which are used as energy, but break our living environment. According to our experiments, which consciousness can use thought waves remotely to change their systemic model between Electron Clouds and electron holes of P-N Junction and can change output voltages of solar cells by a life information technology and a space-time effect, we hope to find a new method to the orbit of the Tyche to avoid next extinction. (see Dayong Cao, BAPS.2011.APR.K1.17 and BAPS.2012.MAR.P33.14) Support by AEEA

Investigating the impact of light and water status on the exchange of COS, 13CO2, CO18O and H218O from bryophytes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gimeno, Teresa; Royles, Jessica; Ogee, Jerome; Jones, Samuel; Burlett, Regis; West, Jason; Sauze, Joana; Wohl, Steven; Genty, Bernard; Griffiths, Howard; Wingate, Lisa

2016-04-01

Terrestrial surfaces are often covered by photoautotrophic communities that play a significant role in the biological fixation of C and N at the global scale. Bryophytes (mosses, liverworts and hornworts) are key members in these communities and are especially adapted to thrive in hostile environments, by growing slowly and surviving repeated dehydration events. Consequently, bryophyte communities can be extremely long-lived (>1500yrs) and can serve as valuable records of historic climate change. In particular the carbon and oxygen isotope compositions of mosses can be used as powerful proxies describing how growing season changes in atmospheric CO2 and rainfall have changed in the distant past over the land surface. Interpreting the climate signals of bryophyte biomass requires a robust understanding of how changes in photosynthetic activity and moisture status regulate the growth and isotopic composition of bryophyte biomass. Thus theoretical models predicting how changes in isotopic enrichment and CO2 discrimination respond to dehydration and rehydration are used to tease apart climatic and isotopic source signals. Testing these models with high resolution datasets obtained from new generation laser spectrometers can provide more information on how these plants that lack stomata cope with water loss. In addition novel tracers such as carbonyl sulfide (COS) can also be measured at high resolution and precision (<5ppt) and used to constrain understanding of diffusional and enzymatic limitations during dehydration and rehydration events in the light and the dark. Here, we will present for the first time simultaneous high-resolution chamber measurements of COS, 13CO2, CO18O and H218O fluxes by a bryophyte species (Marchantia sp.) in the light and during the dark, through complete desiccation cycles. Our measurements consistently reveal a strong enrichment dynamic in the oxygen isotope composition of transpired water over the dessication cycle that caused an increase in the oxygen isotope discrimination of CO2. These data followed closely values predicted by our process-based model. We also observed a consistent pattern in the fluxes of CO2 and COS during the desiccation cycle. Initially when the bryophyte was wet and a barrier to diffusion existed, net CO2 and COS uptake rates were low. As the water film on the bryophyte disappeared the net rates of CO2 and COS uptake increased to a steady maximum rate whilst relative water content values remained above 100%. Thereafter, the bryophyte turned from a COS sink to a source. In this talk we will further explore how the COS exchange rate of bryophytes varies with light level and whether there is any evidence for differences in the activity of the enzyme carbonic anhydrase with light and moisture status. We also use the data to develop and test a new theoretical model of COS exchange for astomatous plants for the first time.

Color Image of Death Valley, California from SIR-C

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1999-01-01

This radar image shows the area of Death Valley, California and the different surface types in the area. Radar is sensitive to surface roughness with rough areas showing up brighter than smooth areas, which appear dark. This is seen in the contrast between the bright mountains that surround the dark, smooth basins and valleys of Death Valley. The image shows Furnace Creek alluvial fan (green crescent feature) at the far right, and the sand dunes near Stove Pipe Wells at the center. Alluvial fans are gravel deposits that wash down from the mountains over time. Several other alluvial fans (semicircular features) can be seen along the mountain fronts in this image. The dark wrench-shaped feature between Furnace Creek fan and the dunes is a smooth flood-plain which encloses Cottonball Basin. Elevations in the valley range from 70 meters (230 feet) below sea level, the lowest in the United States, to more than 3,300 meters (10,800 feet) above sea level. Scientists are using these radar data to help answer a number of different questions about Earth's geology including how alluvial fans form and change through time in response to climatic changes and earthquakes. The image is centered at 36.629 degrees north latitude, 117.069 degrees west longitude. Colors in the image represent different radar channels as follows: red =L-band horizontally polarized transmitted, horizontally polarized received (LHH); green =L-band horizontally transmitted, vertically received (LHV) and blue = CHV.

SIR-C/X-SAR is part of NASA's Mission to Planet Earth. The radars illuminate Earth with microwaves allowing detailed observations at any time, regardless of weather or sunlight conditions. SIR-C/X-SAR uses three microwave wavelengths: L-band (24 cm), C-band (6 cm) and X-band (3 cm). The multi-frequency data will be used by the international scientific community to better understand the global environment and how it is changing. The SIR-C/X-SAR data, complemented by aircraft and ground studies, will give scientists clearer insights into those environmental changes which are caused by nature and those changes which are induced by human activity. SIR-C was developed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. X-SAR was developed by the Dornier and Alenia Spazio companies for the German space agency, Deutsche Agentur fuer Raumfahrtangelegenheiten (DARA), and the Italian space agency, Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI).

Emphysema diagnosis using X-ray dark-field imaging at a laser-driven compact synchrotron light source

PubMed Central

Schleede, Simone; Meinel, Felix G.; Bech, Martin; Herzen, Julia; Achterhold, Klaus; Potdevin, Guillaume; Malecki, Andreas; Adam-Neumair, Silvia; Thieme, Sven F.; Bamberg, Fabian; Nikolaou, Konstantin; Bohla, Alexander; Yildirim, Ali Ö.; Loewen, Roderick; Gifford, Martin; Ruth, Ronald; Eickelberg, Oliver; Reiser, Maximilian; Pfeiffer, Franz

2012-01-01

In early stages of various pulmonary diseases, such as emphysema and fibrosis, the change in X-ray attenuation is not detectable with absorption-based radiography. To monitor the morphological changes that the alveoli network undergoes in the progression of these diseases, we propose using the dark-field signal, which is related to small-angle scattering in the sample. Combined with the absorption-based image, the dark-field signal enables better discrimination between healthy and emphysematous lung tissue in a mouse model. All measurements have been performed at 36 keV using a monochromatic laser-driven miniature synchrotron X-ray source (Compact Light Source). In this paper we present grating-based dark-field images of emphysematous vs. healthy lung tissue, where the strong dependence of the dark-field signal on mean alveolar size leads to improved diagnosis of emphysema in lung radiographs. PMID:23074250

Effect of dark pretreatment on the kinetics of response of barley pulvini to gravistimulation and hormones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brock, T. G.; Kaufman, P. B.

1988-01-01

Starch in pulvinus amyloplasts of barley (Hordeum vulgare cv Larker) disappears when 45-day-old, light-grown plants are given 5 days of continuous darkness. The effect of this loss on the pulvinus graviresponse was evaluated by following changes in the kinetics of response during the 5-day dark period. Over 5 days of dark pretreatment, the lag to initial graviresponse and the subsequent half-time to maximum steady state bending rate increased significantly while the maximum bending rate did not change. The change in response to applied indoleacetic acid (100 micromolar) plus gibberellic acid (10 micromolar) without gravistimulation, under identical dark pretreatments, was used as a model system for the response component of gravitropism. Dark pretreatment did not change the lag to initial response following hormone application to vertical pulvini, but both the maximum bending rate and the half-time to the maximum rate were significantly reduced. Also, after dark pretreatment, significant bending responses following hormone application were observed in vertical segments with or without added sucrose, while gravistimulation produced a response only if segments were given sucrose. These results indicate that starch-filled amyloplasts are required for the graviresponse of barley pulvini and suggest that they function in the stimulus perception and signal transduction components of gravitropism.

Quick-Change Optical-Filter Holder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leone, Peter

1988-01-01

Dark slide and interlock protect against ambient light. Quick-change filter holder contains interlocking mechanism preventing simultaneous removal of both dark slide and filter drawer. Designed for use with Band pass optical filters in 10 channels leading to photomultiplier tubes in water-vapor lidar/ozone instrument, mechanism can be modified to operate in other optical systems requiring optical change in filters.

Characterization of Rod Function Phenotypes Across a Range of Age-Related Macular Degeneration Severities and Subretinal Drusenoid Deposits

PubMed Central

Flynn, Oliver J.; Cukras, Catherine A.; Jeffrey, Brett G.

2018-01-01

Purpose To examine spatial changes in rod-mediated function in relationship to local structural changes across the central retina in eyes with a spectrum of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) disease severity. Methods Participants were categorized into five AMD severity groups based on fundus features. Scotopic thresholds were measured at 14 loci spanning ±18° along the vertical meridian from one eye of each of 42 participants (mean = 71.7 ± 9.9 years). Following a 30% bleach, dark adaptation was measured at eight loci (±12°). Rod intercept time (RIT) was defined from the time to detect a −3.1 log cd/m2 stimulus. RITslope was defined from the linear fit of RIT with decreasing retinal eccentricity. The presence of subretinal drusenoid deposits (SDD), ellipsoid (EZ) band disruption, and drusen at the test loci was evaluated using optical coherence tomography. Results Scotopic thresholds indicated greater rod function loss in the macula, which correlated with increasing AMD group severity. RITslope, which captures the spatial change in the rate of dark adaptation, increased with AMD severity (P < 0.0001). Three rod function phenotypes emerged: RF1, normal rod function; RF2, normal scotopic thresholds but slowed dark adaptation; and RF3, elevated scotopic thresholds with slowed dark adaptation. Dark adaptation was slowed at all loci with SDD or EZ band disruption, and at 32% of loci with no local structural changes. Conclusions Three rod function phenotypes were defined from combined measurement of scotopic threshold and dark adaptation. Spatial changes in dark adaptation across the macula were captured with RITslope, which may be a useful outcome measure for functional studies of AMD. PMID:29847647

Characterization of Rod Function Phenotypes Across a Range of Age-Related Macular Degeneration Severities and Subretinal Drusenoid Deposits.

PubMed

Flynn, Oliver J; Cukras, Catherine A; Jeffrey, Brett G

2018-05-01

To examine spatial changes in rod-mediated function in relationship to local structural changes across the central retina in eyes with a spectrum of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) disease severity. Participants were categorized into five AMD severity groups based on fundus features. Scotopic thresholds were measured at 14 loci spanning ±18° along the vertical meridian from one eye of each of 42 participants (mean = 71.7 ± 9.9 years). Following a 30% bleach, dark adaptation was measured at eight loci (±12°). Rod intercept time (RIT) was defined from the time to detect a -3.1 log cd/m2 stimulus. RITslope was defined from the linear fit of RIT with decreasing retinal eccentricity. The presence of subretinal drusenoid deposits (SDD), ellipsoid (EZ) band disruption, and drusen at the test loci was evaluated using optical coherence tomography. Scotopic thresholds indicated greater rod function loss in the macula, which correlated with increasing AMD group severity. RITslope, which captures the spatial change in the rate of dark adaptation, increased with AMD severity (P < 0.0001). Three rod function phenotypes emerged: RF1, normal rod function; RF2, normal scotopic thresholds but slowed dark adaptation; and RF3, elevated scotopic thresholds with slowed dark adaptation. Dark adaptation was slowed at all loci with SDD or EZ band disruption, and at 32% of loci with no local structural changes. Three rod function phenotypes were defined from combined measurement of scotopic threshold and dark adaptation. Spatial changes in dark adaptation across the macula were captured with RITslope, which may be a useful outcome measure for functional studies of AMD.

Circadian rhythm of intraocular pressure in the rat.

PubMed

Moore, C G; Johnson, E C; Morrison, J C

1996-02-01

To define the characteristics of the diurnal variation of intraocular pressure (IOP) in eyes of awake rats, ten male brown Norway rats were entrained to a 12-hour light:12-hour dark (12L:12D) lighting schedule and were conditioned to IOP measurement with the TonoPen XL tonometer while awake, using only 0.5% proparacaine HCl anesthesia. The IOP measurements were performed in 4 experiments: Preliminary-IOP was measured at 6-hour intervals in both eyes of each animal, to determine correlation between right and left eyes; Light:Dark-lighting remained the same as in the preliminary experiment, but the measurement schedule was altered so that measurements were obtained at 4-hour intervals in alternating eyes, over two 24-hour light cycles; Dark:Dark-animals were placed in constant dark (0L:24D) and, after 72 h, measurements were obtained at 4-hour intervals in alternating eyes. Animals were then re-entrained to the previous 12L:12D schedule for 7 days, after which they were returned to constant dark and the experiment was repeated; and Dark:Light-animals were entrained to a reversed light:dark cycle (12D:12L) for 28 days, after which measurements were obtained in the same fashion as in the Light:Dark experiment. Close agreement was found between right- and left-eye IOPs. Animals on a 12L:12D schedule exhibited lowest IOP while the lights were on (19.3 +/- 1.9 mm Hg), and highest (31.3 +/- 1.3 mm Hg) while the lights were off. Pressure changes anticipated the change from light to dark and dark to light. This pattern persisted in constant dark, and was reversed when the cycle was changed to 12D:12L. Brown Norway rats possess a regular rhythm of IOP that is entrained by the cycle of light and dark, and persistence of this rhythm in constant dark establishes it as a circadian rhythm. Furthermore, our results indicate that reliable and physiologically meaningful IOP measurements can be obtained in awake rats using the TonoPen XL tonometer.

Dark focus of accommodation as dependent and independent variables in visual display technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Sherrie; Kennedy, Robert; Harm, Deborah

1992-01-01

When independent stimuli are available for accommodation, as in the dark or under low contrast conditions, the lens seeks its resting position. Individual differences in resting positions are reliable, under autonomic control, and can change with visual task demands. We hypothesized that motion sickness in a flight simulator might result in dark focus changes. Method: Subjects received training flights in three different Navy flight simulators. Two were helicopter simulators entailed CRT presentation using infinity optics, one involved a dome presentation of a computer graphic visual projection system. Results: In all three experiments there were significant differences between dark focus activity before and after simulator exposure when comparisons were made between sick and not-sick pilot subjects. In two of these experiments, the average shift in dark focus for the sick subjects was toward increased myopia when each subject was compared to his own baseline. In the third experiment, the group showed an average shift outward of small amount and the subjects who were sick showed significantly less outward movement than those who were symptom free. Conclusions: Although the relationship is not a simple one, dark focus changes in simulator sickness imply parasympathetic activity. Because changes can occur in relation to endogenous and exogenous events, such measurement may have useful applications as dependent measures in studies of visually coupled systems, virtual reality systems, and space adaptation syndrome.

Day–Night Changes of Energy-rich Compounds in Crassulacean Acid Metabolism (CAM) Species Utilizing Hexose and Starch

PubMed Central

CHEN, LI-SONG; NOSE, AKIHIRO

2004-01-01

• Background and Aims Plants with crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) can be divided into two groups according to the major carbohydrates used for malic acid synthesis, either polysaccharide (starch) or monosaccharide (hexose). This is related to the mechanism and affects energy metabolism in the two groups. In Kalanchoë pinnata and K. daigremontiana, which utilize starch, ATP-dependent phosphofructokinase (tonoplast inorganic pyrophosphatase) activity is greater than inorganic pyrophosphate-dependent phosphofructokinase (tonoplast adenosine triphosphatase) activity, but the reverse is the case in pineapple (Ananas comosus) utilizing hexose. To test the hypothesis that the energy metabolism of the two groups differs, day-night changes in the contents of ATP, ADP, AMP, inorganic phosphate (Pi), phosphoenolpyruvate (PEP) and inorganic pyrophosphate (PPi) in K. pinnata and K. daigremontiana leaves and in pineapple chlorenchyma were analysed. • Methods The contents of energy-rich compounds were measured spectrophotometrically in extracts of tissue sampled in the light and dark, using potted plants, kept for 15 d before the experiments in a growth chamber. • Key Results In the three species, ATP content and adenylate energy charge (AEC) increased in the dark and decreased in the light, in contrast to ADP and AMP. Changes in ATP and AEC were greater in Kalanchoë leaves than in pineapple chlorenchyma. PPi content in the three species increased in the dark, but on illumination it decreased rapidly and substantially, remaining little changed through the rest of the light period. Pi content of Kalanchoë leaves did not change between dark and light, whereas Pi in pineapple chlorenchyma increased in the dark and decreased in the light, and the changes were far greater than in Kalanchoë leaves. Light-dark changes in PEP content in the three species were similar. • Conclusions These results corroborate our hypothesis that day–night changes in the contents of energy-rich compounds differ between CAM species and are related to the carbohydrate used for malic acid synthesis. PMID:15277250

Holocene climate variability in the western Mediterranean through a multiproxy analysis from Padul peat bog (Sierra Nevada, Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos-Román, María J.; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Camuera, Jon; García-Alix, Antonio; Anderson, R. Scott; Jiménez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Sachse, Dirk

2017-04-01

The Iberian Peninsula, located in the Mediterranean area, is an interesting location for paleoclimate studies due to its geographic situation between arid and humid climates. Sediments from peat bogs and lakes from Sierra Nevada, in southeastern Iberian Peninsula, have been very informative in terms of how vegetation and wetland environments were impacted by Holocene climate change. These studies are essential if we want to understand the past climate change in the area, which is the key to identify the possible environmental response of the Sierra Nevada ecosystems to future climate scenarios. Padul basin, located in the southwest of the Sierra Nevada mountain range, contains a ca. 100 m-thick peat bog sedimentary sequence that was deposited during the past 1 Ma making this area interesting for paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic reconstructions. A new 43 m-long sedimentary record has recently been retrieved from the Padul peat bog. In this study we have developed a multiproxy analysis of the Holocene part of the Padul-15-05 core including pollen analysis, XRF-core scanner, magnetic susceptibility and organic geochemistry, supported by an age control based on AMS radiocarbon dates, providing with information about vegetation and climate variability during the past 9.9 cal ka BP. This multiproxy reconstruction of the Padul-15-05 evidences the Mediterranean as a sensitive area with respect to global-scale climate system, showing relevant climate episodes such as the ca. 8, 7.5, 6.5 and 5.5 cal ka BP events during the early and middle Holocene. The trend to aridification to the late Holocene is interrupted by more arid and humid periods as the Iberian Roman Humid Period (from ca. 3 to 1.6 cal ka BP), the Dark Ages (from ca. 1.5 to 1.1 cal ka BP), the Medieval Climate Anomaly (from ca. 1.1 to 1.3 cal ka BP) and the Little Ice Age period (from ca. 500 to 100 cal yr BP).

Metabolomic Responses of Arabidopsis Suspension Cells to Bicarbonate under Light and Dark Conditions

PubMed Central

Misra, Biswapriya B.; Yin, Zepeng; Geng, Sisi; de Armas, Evaldo; Chen, Sixue

2016-01-01

Global CO2 level presently recorded at 400 ppm is expected to reach 550 ppm in 2050, an increment likely to impact plant growth and productivity. Using targeted LC-MS and GC-MS platforms we quantified 229 and 29 metabolites, respectively in a time-course study to reveal short-term responses to different concentrations (1, 3, and 10 mM) of bicarbonate (HCO3−) under light and dark conditions. Results indicate that HCO3− treatment responsive metabolomic changes depend on the HCO3− concentration, time of treatment, and light/dark. Interestingly, 3 mM HCO3− concentration treatment induced more significantly changed metabolites than either lower or higher concentrations used. Flavonoid biosynthesis and glutathione metabolism were common to both light and dark-mediated responses in addition to showing concentration-dependent changes. Our metabolomics results provide insights into short-term plant cellular responses to elevated HCO3− concentrations as a result of ambient increases in CO2 under light and dark. PMID:27762345

Dark adaptation-induced changes in rod, cone and intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cell (ipRGC) sensitivity differentially affect the pupil light response (PLR).

PubMed

Wang, Bin; Shen, Chao; Zhang, Lei; Qi, Linsong; Yao, Lu; Chen, Jianzhang; Yang, Guoqing; Chen, Tao; Zhang, Zuoming

2015-11-01

Our purpose was to explore pupil light response (PLR) with respect to the change in sensitivity of photoreceptors during various dark adaptation phases and to determine the optimal duration of dark adaptation time before the PLR. The PLR was recorded in 15 healthy subjects and three patients with neural or retinal vision loss after 1-sec blue and red light stimuli of 1, 10, and 100 cd/m(2). The PLR was repeated nine times at different checkpoints during the 40-minute dark adaptation. The transient contraction amplitude, sustained contraction amplitude, and relative sustained contraction ratio of the PLR were analyzed. The increase in the transient contraction amplitude during the entire dark adaptation process was significant (changing up to 45.1 %) in the initial phase of dark adaptation under different stimulus conditions. The changes in the sustained contraction amplitude and the relative sustained contraction ratio were substantial (changing up to 71.0 % and 37.2 % from 1 to 20 minutes of dark adaptation, respectively) under high-intensity blue illumination. The inflection point of the contraction curves in the dark adaptation was 15 or 20 minutes. The patients' PLR results changed in a similar manner. The changes in the sensitivity of different photoreceptors occurred at different rates, and the contraction amplitude of the PLR was significantly affected by the dark adaptation duration. So 20 minutes of dark adaptation before PLR testing was suggested to achieve a consistent and stable pupil response. The dark adaptation effect should be put into consideration when comparing the results from different phases of the PLR test.

In vivo magnetic resonance measures of dark cytotoxicity of photosensitizers in a Murine tumor model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramaprasad, Subbaraya; Ripp, Elzbieta; Pi, Jiaxiong; Joshi, Shantaram S.; Pandey, Suresh K.; Missert, Joseph; Pandey, Ravindra K.

2005-04-01

Photodynamic therapy (PDT) is a novel cancer treatment modality where the therapeutic action is controlled by light and the potency of the photosensitizer used. Development of new potent photosensitizers (PS) for clinical applications requires that the PDT effects are maximized while minimizing dark cytotoxicity. The dark toxicity of photosensitizers is generally confirmed using cell lines. Photososensitizers that appear promising from in vitro assays need further investigations under in vivo conditions. As in vivo MR methods have the potential to provide information on the tumor status, they can be very effective tools to study dark toxicity of tumors. The tumor produced on the mouse foot dorsum was tested on two newly synthesized photosensitizers along with Photofrin as a control. The MR studies consisted of serial 31P spectral measurements both before and after PS injection. The results show significant changes in the tumor metabolism with increased inorganic phosphate while using new photosensitizers. However these changes slowly approached control levels several hours later. The studies performed while using Photofrin did not show any significant changes indicating minimal or no dark cytotoxicity. Similar studies performed on normal tissue such as the muscle indicated that the energy metabolism was minimally compromised. Our studies demonstrate that the effects of dark cytotoxicity can be observed by 31P MR. The growth profiles of tumors treated with PS alone indicate that the metabolic changes are temporary and do not interfere with the tumor growth. The studies suggest that MR is a new method of monitoring the effect of PS administered toxicity in an in vivo model.

Reply to "Comment on 'Cosmic-ray-driven reaction and greenhouse effect of halogenated molecules: Culprits for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change' by Rolf Müller and Jens-Uwe Grooß"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Q.-B.

2014-04-01

In their Comment, Müller and Grooß continuously use problematic "observed data" and misleading arguments to make a case against our CRE mechanism of the ozone hole and CFC-warming mechanism of global climate change. They make the groundless assertion that the CRE theory cannot be considered as an independent process for ozone loss in the polar stratosphere. Their claim that the impact of the CRE mechanism on polar chlorine activation and ozone loss in the stratosphere would be limited does not agree with the observed data over the past decades. They also make many contradictory and fact-distorting arguments that "There is no polar ozone loss in darkness, there is no apparent 11-year periodicity in polar total ozone measurements, the age of air in the polar lower stratosphere is much older than 1-2 years, and the reported detection of a pronounced recovery (by about 20-25%) in Antarctic total ozone measurements by the year 2010 is in error." These assertions ignore and contradict a great deal of robust observed data from both laboratory and field measurements reported in the literature including their own publications. Their new argument for the photodissociation of CFCs on PSCs also contradicts their previous extraordinary efforts including the use of fabricated "ACE-FTS satellite data" to argue for no physical/chemical loss of CFCs in the winter lower polar stratosphere. Finally, they do not provide any scientific evidence to support their criticism for the no physical basis of the CFC-warming theory and its conclusions. In summary, their misleading arguments and false "data" do not change the convincing conclusion reached by robust observations in my recent paper that both the CRE mechanism and the CFC-warming mechanism not only provide new fundamental understandings of the O3 hole and global climate change but have superior predictive capabilities, compared with the conventional models.

Mid-late Holocene climatic changes in the Southwestern Iberian shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomes, S.; Naughton, F.; Rodrigues, T.; Drago, T.; Sanchez-Goñi, M.; Freitas, C.

2012-04-01

Vegetation (pollen analysis) and alkenone-derived Sea Surface Temperature (SST) reconstructions from a south western Iberian shelf core (POPEI VC2B) (36°53'12,99'' N, 8°03'57,98'' W) show orbital and suborbital climate variability at extremely high resolution for the last 6000 years in this region. In particular, the mid-late Holocene is marked by a long-term cooling revealed by the gradual decrease of arboreal pollen (AP) percentages and SST which parallels the general decreasing trend of the δ18-O isotope composition recorded in Greenland ice records and the decrease of the mid-latitudes summer insolation. The short-term vegetation changes, reflecting millennial scale climatic variability, are clearly identified in the POPEI VC2B over the last 6000 years. In particular, the basement of this record is marked by the presence of semi-desert plants (Chenopodiaceae, Artemisia and Ephedra) reflecting dry conditions. These particular dry conditions have been detected elsewhere in the southern Iberian Peninsula and in North African records. Following the particularly dry period, there is a decline of semi-desert plants and an increase of Ericaceae and Pinus associated with establishment of an incipient forest of Quercus deciduous type reflecting temperate and humid conditions. This period was followed by a decrease of arboreal pollen percentages, suggesting a relative climate cooling. Finally, the last 2500/2000 years, are marked by the presence of anthropogenic associations (including Cerealia-type, Plantago lanceolata-coronopus type, and Olea) and are characterized by several vegetation and climate oscillations associated with the Roman Period (RP), the Dark Ages (DA), the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA), and the Little Ice Age (LIA).

Climate and Life: A Human Retrospective.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

deMenocal, P. B.

2014-12-01

A renaissance scientist, Cesare Emiliani was also interested in climate change and its influence on human origins, ancient cultures, and our future. Climate shapes life across a range of time and space scales - seasons pace the cycle of death and renewal, and the diversity of all life is bounded by latitude. Each of the "big five" mass extinctions of the Phanerozoic is linked to environmental crisis. Has climate change also shaped us? Analytical advances, new sediment archives, and heroic international collaborations have brought new light to this question. Gone is the dated view of our ancestors emerging from some ancient dark forest to assert dominion over the grassy plains. In its place is new evidence for rapid and large orbital-scale climate cycles that shifted, stepwise after 2.8 and then again after 1.8 million years ago to establish the African savannah we know today. These climate events are coincident with clusters of hominin speciation, extinction, and behavioral innovation milestones that came to define us as human. The African Humid Period is one of the best and oldest examples of human cultural responses to climate change. Between 15,000-5,000 years ago the Saharan desert supported grassy, wooded plains, large lakes, and clusters of human settlements due to orbital increases in monsoonal rainfall. While there is an ongoing debate whether the end of this wet phase was fast (centuries) or slow (millennia), the rich archeological record shows that this region was depopulated and, within centuries, the first settlements appear along the Nile River near 5 ka BP. Many "firsts" are associated with these predynastic cultures of the Naqada III Period including the first named kings, pyramids, and hieroglyphs, resulting in political unification and Dynastic rule along the Nile. As these diverse lines of evidence come together, it appears as if an answer to the age-old question "How did I get here?" is no longer beyond our reach. Climate has played an important role in our past, and a current far greater challenge is to understand our future.

Effects of rising temperature on the viability of an important sea turtle rookery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laloë, Jacques-Olivier; Cozens, Jacquie; Renom, Berta; Taxonera, Albert; Hays, Graeme C.

2014-06-01

A warming world poses challenges for species with temperature-dependent sex determination, including sea turtles, for which warmer incubation temperatures produce female hatchlings. We combined in situ sand temperature measurements with air temperature records since 1850 and predicted warming scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to derive 250-year time series of incubation temperatures, hatchling sex ratios, and operational sex ratios for one of the largest sea turtles rookeries globally (Cape Verde Islands, Atlantic). We estimate that light-coloured beaches currently produce 70.10% females whereas dark-coloured beaches produce 93.46% females. Despite increasingly female skewed sex ratios, entire feminization of this population is not imminent. Rising temperatures increase the number of breeding females and hence the natural rate of population growth. Predicting climate warming impacts across hatchlings, male-female breeding ratios and nesting numbers provides a holistic approach to assessing the conservation concerns for sea turtles in a warming world.

Seasonality of vesicular-arbuscular mycorrhizae in sedges in a semi-arid tropical grassland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muthukumar, T.; Udaiyan, K.

2002-10-01

Vesicular-arbuscular mycorrhizal (VAM) colonization and spore numbers in the rhizosphere of Cyperus iria L. and C. rotundus L., growing in a semi-arid tropical grassland, was studied during the 1993 and 1994 monsoons. In addition, climatic and chemical properties of the soils were determined in order to investigate their influence on mycorrhizal variables. VAM fungal association in the sedges was confirmed by plant- and root-trap culture techniques. The soil nutrients exhibited seasonal variations, but were highly variable between years. Intercellular hyphae and vesicles with occasional intraradical spores characterized mycorrhizal association in sedges. Dark septate fungi also colonized roots of sedges. Temporal variations in mycorrhizal colonization and spore numbers occurred, indicating seasonality. However, the patterns of mycorrhizal colonization and spore numbers were different during both the years. The VAM fungal structures observed were intercellular hyphae and vesicles. Changes in the proportion of root length with VAM structures, total colonization levels and spore numbers were related to climatic and edaphic factors. However, the intensity of influence of climatic and soil factors on VAM tended to vary with sedge species.

Comparison of a spatio-temporal speleothem-based reconstruction of late Holocene climate variability to the timing of cultural developments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deininger, Michael; Lippold, Jörg; Abele, Florian; McDermott, Frank

2016-04-01

Speleothems are considered as a valuable continental climate archive. Their δ18O records provide information onto past changes of the atmospheric circulation accompanied by changes in surface air temperature and precipitation. During the last decades European speleothem studies have assembled a European speleothem network (including numerous speleothem δ18O records) that allow now not only to picture past climate variability in time but also in space. In particular the climate variability of the last 4.5 ka was investigated by these studies. This allows the comparison of the speleothem-based reconstructed palaeoclimate with the timings of the rise and fall of ancient civilisations in this period - including the Dark Ages. Here we evaluate a compilation of 10 speleothem δ18O records covering the last 4.5 ka using a Monte Carlo based Principal Component Analysis (MC-PCA) that accounts for uncertainties in individual speleothem age models and for the different and varying temporal resolutions of each speleothem δ18O record. Our MC-PCA approach allows not only the identification of temporally coherent changes in δ18O records, i.e. the common signal in all investigated speleothem δ18O records, but it also facilitates their depiction and evaluation spatially. The speleothem δ18O records are spanning almost the entire European continent ranging from the western Margin of the European continent to Northern Turkey and from Northern Italy to Norway. For the MC-PCA analysis the 4.5 ka are divided into eight 1ka long time windows that overlap the subsequent time window by 500 years to allow a comparison of the spatio-temporal evolution of the common signal. For every single time window we derive a common mode of climate variability of all speleothem δ18O records as well as its spatial extent. This allows us to compare the rise and fall of ancient civilisations, like the Hittite and the Roman Empire, with our reconstructed spatio-temporal record.

Changes in the dark focus of accommodation associated with simulator sickness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fowlkes, Jennifer E.; Kennedy, Robert S.; Hettinger, Lawrence J.; Harm, Deborah L.

1993-01-01

The relationship between the dark focus of accommodation and simulator sickness, a form of motion sickness, was examined in three experiments. In Experiment 1, dark focus was measured in 18 college students in a laboratory setting before and after they viewed a projected motion scene depicting low altitude helicopter flight. In Experiments 2 and 3, dark focus was measured in pilots (N = 16 and 23, respectively) before and after they 'flew' in moving-base helicopter flight simulators with optical infinity CRT visual systems. The results showed that individuals who experienced simulator sickness had either an inward (myopic) change in dark focus (Experiments 1 and 3) or attenuated outward shifts in dark focus (Experiment 2) relative to participants who did not get sick. These results are consonant with the hypothesis that parasympathetic activity, which may be associated with simulator sickness, should result in changes in dark focus that are in a myopic direction. Night vision goggles, virtual environments, extended periods in microgravity, and heads-up displays all produce related visual symptomatology. Changes in dark focus may occur in these conditions, as well, and should be measured.

Role of light and the circadian clock in the rhythmic oscillation of intraocular pressure: Studies in VPAC2 receptor and PACAP deficient mice.

PubMed

Fahrenkrug, Jan; Georg, Birgitte; Hannibal, Jens; Jørgensen, Henrik Løvendahl

2018-04-01

The intraocular pressure of mice displays a daily rhythmicity being highest during the dark period. The present study was performed to elucidate the role of the circadian clock and light in the diurnal and the circadian variations in intraocular pressure in mice, by using animals with disrupted clock function (VPAC2 receptor knockout mice) or impaired light information to the clock (PACAP knockout mice). In wildtype mice, intraocular pressure measured under light/dark conditions showed a statistically significant 24 h sinusoidal rhythm with nadir during the light phase and peak during the dark phase. After transfer of the wildtype mice into constant darkness, the intraocular pressure increased, but the rhythmic changes in intraocular pressure continued with a pattern identical to that obtained during the light/dark cycle. The intraocular pressure in VPAC2 receptor deficient mice during light/dark conditions also showed a sinusoidal pattern with significant changes as a function of a 24 h cycle. However, transfer of the VPAC2 receptor knockout mice into constant darkness completely abolished the rhythmic changes in intraocular pressure. The intraocular pressure in PACAP deficient mice oscillated significantly during both 24 h light and darkness and during constant darkness. During LD conditions, the amplitude of PACAP deficient was significantly lower compared to wildtype mice, resulting in higher daytime and lower nighttime values. In conclusion, by studying the VPAC2 receptor knockout mouse which lacks circadian control and the PACAP knockout mouse which displays impaired light signaling, we provided evidence that the daily intraocular pressure rhythms are primarily generated by the circadian master clock and to a lesser extent by environmental light and darkness. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Distribution of tubulin, kinesin, and dynein in light- and dark-adapted octopus retinas.

PubMed

Martinez, J M; Elfarissi, H; De Velasco, B; Ochoa, G H; Miller, A M; Clark, Y M; Matsumoto, B; Robles, L J

2000-01-01

Cephalopod retinas exhibit several responses to light and dark adaptation, including rhabdom size changes, photopigment movements, and pigment granule migration. Light- and dark-directed rearrangements of microfilament and microtubule cytoskeletal transport pathways could drive these changes. Recently, we localized actin-binding proteins in light-/dark-adapted octopus rhabdoms and suggested that actin cytoskeletal rearrangements bring about the formation and degradation of rhabdomere microvilli subsets. To determine if the microtubule cytoskeleton and associated motor proteins control the other light/dark changes, we used immunoblotting and immunocytochemical procedures to map the distribution of tubulin, kinesin, and dynein in dorsal and ventral halves of light- and dark-adapted octopus retinas. Immunoblots detected alpha- and beta-tubulin, dynein intermediate chain, and kinesin heavy chain in extracts of whole retinas. Epifluorescence and confocal microscopy showed that the tubulin proteins were distributed throughout the retina with more immunoreactivity in retinas exposed to light. Kinesin localization was heavy in the pigment layer of light- and dark-adapted ventral retinas but was less prominent in the dorsal region. Dynein distribution also varied in dorsal and ventral retinas with more immunoreactivity in light- and dark-adapted ventral retinas and confocal microscopy emphasized the granular nature of this labeling. We suggest that light may regulate the distribution of microtubule cytoskeletal proteins in the octopus retina and that position, dorsal versus ventral, also influences the distribution of motor proteins. The microtubule cytoskeleton is most likely involved in pigment granule migration in the light and dark and with the movement of transport vesicles from the photoreceptor inner segments to the rhabdoms.

The new climate data record of total and spectral solar irradiance: Current progress and future steps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coddington, Odele; Lean, Judith; Rottman, Gary; Pilewskie, Peter; Snow, Martin; Lindholm, Doug

2016-04-01

We present a climate data record of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI), with associated time and wavelength dependent uncertainties, from 1610 to the present. The data record was developed jointly by the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) at the University of Colorado Boulder and the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) as part of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Climate Data Record (CDR) Program, where the data record, source code, and supporting documentation are archived. TSI and SSI are constructed from models that determine the changes from quiet Sun conditions arising from bright faculae and dark sunspots on the solar disk using linear regression of proxies of solar magnetic activity with observations from the SOlar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM), Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM), and SOlar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE). We show that TSI can be separately modeled to within TIM's measurement accuracy from solar rotational to solar cycle time scales and we assume that SSI measurements are reliable on solar rotational time scales. We discuss the model formulation, uncertainty estimates, and operational implementation and present comparisons of the modeled TSI and SSI with the measurement record and with other solar irradiance models. We also discuss ongoing work to assess the sensitivity of the modeled irradiances to model assumptions, namely, the scaling of solar variability from rotational-to-cycle time scales and the representation of the sunspot darkening index.

Astronomically forced paleoclimate change from middle Eocene to early Oligocene: continental conditions in central China compared with the global marine isotope record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, C.; Hinnov, L. A.

2010-12-01

The early Eocene climatic optimum ended with a long interval of global cooling that began in the early Middle Eocene and ended at the Eocene-Oligocene transition. During this long-term cooling, a series of short-term warming reversals occurred in the marine realm. Here, we investigate corresponding continental climate conditions as revealed in the Qianjiang Formation of the Jianghan Basin in central China, which consists of more than 4000 m of saline lake sediments. The Qianjiang Formation includes, in its deepest sections, a halite-rich rhythmic sediment succession with dark mudstone, brownish-white siltstone and sandstone, and greyish-white halite. Alternating fresh water (humid/cool)—saline water (dry/hot) deposits reflect climate cycles driven by orbital forcing. High-resolution gamma ray (GR) logging from the basin center captures these pronounced lithological rhythms throughout the formation. Several halite-rich intervals are interpreted as short-term warming events within the middle Eocene to early Oligocene, and could be expressions of coeval warming events in the global marine oxygen isotope record, for example, the middle Eocene climate optimum (MECO) event around 41 Ma. The Eocene-Oligocene boundary is distinguished by a radical change from halite-rich to clastic sediments, indicating a dramatic climate change from warm to cool conditions. Power spectral analysis of the GR series indicates strong short (~100 kyr) eccentricity cycling during the warm/hot episodes. Amplitude modulation of the short eccentricity in the GR series occurs with a strong 405 kyr periodicity. This cycling is calibrated to the La2004 orbital eccentricity model. A climate reversal occurs at 36.5 Ma within the long-term marine cooling trend following MECO, which is reflected also in the Qianjiang GR series, with the latter indicating several brief warm/dry reversals within the trend. A ~2.6 Myr halite-rich warm interval occurs in the latest Eocene in the continental record; both marine and continental records show continued warmth up to the Eocene-Oligocene boundary. This is followed at 33.96 Ma in both records by a shift to cooler climates, and in the continental record, more humid conditions.

Changes in anterior segment morphology in response to illumination and after laser iridotomy in Asian eyes: an anterior segment OCT study

PubMed Central

See, Jovina L S; Chew, Paul T K; Smith, Scott D; Nolan, Winifred P; Chan, Yiong‐Huak; Huang, David; Zheng, Ce; Foster, Paul J; Aung, Tin; Friedman, David S

2007-01-01

Aim Using the anterior segment optical coherence tomography (AS‐OCT) to quantify changes in anterior segment morphology going from light to dark and following laser iridotomy (LI). Methods Prospective observational study. 17 consecutive subjects without peripheral anterior synechiae undergoing LI were evaluated using gonioscopy and AS‐OCT. Angle configuration including angle opening distance (AOD) at 500 microns anterior to the scleral spur, AOD500, trabecular‐iris space area up to 750 microns from the scleral spur, TISA750 and the increase in angle opening going from dark to light conditions was determined. Results Both mean AOD500 and TISA750 increased nearly threefold going from dark to light. Both also significantly increased following LI (p<0.001) as did gonioscopic grading of the angle in all quadrants (p<0.001, McNemar's test). Angles were more than twice as wide on average in the dark after LI than before LI (p<0.05). Both the mean absolute change and the mean proportionate change in AOD500 and TISA750 when going from light to dark were greater after LI than before (p<0.05). Conclusion Increased illumination as well as LI resulted in significant widening of the anterior chamber angle. AS‐OCT (which does not require a water bath and can be performed with the patient at the slit lamp) identified similar magnitude changes as those previously reported using ultrasound biomicroscopy (UBM). Furthermore, the angle appears to open more both in absolute terms and and proportionate terms in response to illumination after LI. PMID:17504852

Contrasting Photophysiological Characteristics of Phytoplankton Assemblages in the Northern South China Sea.

PubMed

Jin, Peng; Gao, Guang; Liu, Xin; Li, Futian; Tong, Shanying; Ding, Jiancheng; Zhong, Zhihai; Liu, Nana; Gao, Kunshan

2016-01-01

The growth of phytoplankton and thus marine primary productivity depend on photophysiological performance of phytoplankton cells that respond to changing environmental conditions. The South China Sea (SCS) is the largest marginal sea of the western Pacific and plays important roles in modulating regional climate and carbon budget. However, little has been documented on photophysiological characteristics of phytoplankton in the SCS. For the first time, we investigated photophysiological characteristics of phytoplankton assemblages in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) using a real-time in-situ active chlorophyll a fluorometry, covering 4.0 × 105 km2. The functional absorption cross section of photosystem II (PSII) in darkness (σPSII) or under ambient light (σPSII') (A2 quanta-1) increased from the surface to deeper waters at all the stations during the survey period (29 July to 23 August 2012). While the maximum (Fv/Fm, measured in darkness) or effective (Fq'/Fm', measured under ambient light) photochemical efficiency of PSII appeared to increase with increasing depth at most stations, it showed inverse relationship with depth in river plume areas. The functional absorption cross section of PSII changes could be attributed to light-adapted genotypic feature due to niche-partition and the alteration of photochemical efficiency of PSII could be attributed to photo-acclimation. The chlorophyll a fluorometry can be taken as an analog to estimate primary productivity, since areas of higher photochemical efficiency of PSII coincided with those of higher primary productivity reported previously in the NSCS.

Pre-Venus-Transit Dark Lunar Eclipse Reveals a Very Large Volcanic Eruption in 1761

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pang, Kevin

2009-01-01

Kepler's third law states Sun-planet distances in AU. International observations of the solar parallax during the 1761/1769 Venus transits gave us the first AU in miles. Benjamin Franklin promoted American participation in the project. While serving as Ambassador to France he observed that a "dry fog” from the 1783 Laki eruption in Iceland had obscured the Sun, and led to a cold summer and winter. Using Benjamin Franklin's method I analyzed photometric observations of the dark lunar eclipse made just before the 1761 Venus transit, ice core, tree ring, and Chinese weather data, and conclude that a very large previously unknown volcanic eruption in early 1761 had cooled the world climate. Observers worldwide found the 18 May 1761 totally eclipsed Moon very dark or invisible, e.g., Wargentin could not see the Moon for 38 minutes even with a 2-ft telescope (Phil. Trans. 52, 208, 1761-1762). Since the totally eclipsed Moon is illuminated only by sunlight refracted by the Earth's atmosphere, the obscuration must have been very severe. Ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica have large sulfuric acid contents in 1761-1762, precipitated from the global volcanic acid cloud (Zeilinski, J. Geophys. Res. 102, 26625, 1997). Frost-damaged rings in American bristlecone pines confirm that 1761 was very cold (LaMarche, Nature 307, 121, 1984). Contemporary Chinese chronicles report that heavy sustained snow fell from the Tropic of Cancer to the Yellow River. Wells and rivers froze, e.g., Taihu "Great Lake” and nearby Yangtze tributaries were not navigable. Innumerable trees, birds and livestock perished, etc. All observations are consistent with the above conclusion. Finally Benjamin Franklin's criteria for a climate-altering volcanic eruption are still universally used. Moreover his legacy continues to inspire climate researchers. See Pang, Eos 74, no. 43, 106, 1993; and as cited in "Earth in Balance,” Al Gore, p. 379, 1993.

Late Pleistocene and Holocene vegetation and climate changes in the Lake Baikal region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demske, D.; Heumann, G.; Granoszewski, W.; Mamakowa, K.; Piotrowska, N.; Bluszcz, A.; Goslar, T.

2003-04-01

Palynological high-resolution records from Lake Baikal sediments document strong vegetational changes during the transitions from an open landscape to Late Glacial shrublands and Holocene forests. For three core sites, investigated within EU-Project CONTINENT, sporomorph concentrates were used for AMS 14C dating of environmental changes. The pollen record from the northern lake site, located in vicinity to the Barguzin Mountains, shows pronounced maxima of Salix and Picea corresponding to late Pleistocene warming. A peak maximum in Alnus fruticosa during the Younger Dryas cooling coincided with low abundance of green algae in the lake and a decline in Picea trees. Fern-rich forests with Picea, Larix and Betula developed during early Holocene. With an abrupt expansion of Pteridium ferns Abies appeared in the northeastern Baikal region, reflecting optimum conditions for dark taiga. Among pines Pinus sibirica prevailed prior to the spread of P. sylvestris. Expansion of pines points to a distinct decrease in precipitation. A palynological sequence from the same site reflects the vegetation development during the last interglacial, with differences indicated by higher abundance of Abies. The upper part of the interglacial record comprises the transition to stadial conditions. Further pollen spectra are probably equivalent to first interstadials of the early glacial period (Zyryansk). Comparison with southern sites, in vicinity to the Selenga Delta and the Khamar-Daban Mountains, reveals that regional and temporal differentiation of Holocene vegetation development and climate conditions was closely related to the distribution of mountain ranges.

Association of Dark-Adapted Visual Function with Retinal Structural Changes in Patients with Stargardt Disease

PubMed Central

Salvatore, Serena; Fishman, Gerald A.; McAnany, J. Jason; Genead, Mohamed A.

2014-01-01

Purpose To evaluate dark-adapted retinal sensitivity in patients with Stargardt disease (STGD1) using a modified MP-1 microperimeter (MP-1S) and to compare the sensitivity loss with structural changes observed by spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT) and confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscope (cSLO) infrared imaging. Methods Twelve STGD1 patients and 10 normally sighted controls participated. Dark-adapted mean sensitivity (MS) was obtained using a MP-1S. Additionally, MS percent difference between the patients and the controls was obtained. Sensitivity results were superimposed on cSLO infrared images and compared with corresponding SD-OCT scans. Results Dark-adapted MS±SD was 8.34±1.54 dB for the controls and 3.68±1.74 dB for STGD1(p<0.001). There was a significant reduction in MS of 24.0% in STGD1. Sensitivity reductions were observed in areas that showed changes on cSLO infrared images and on SD-OCT, including disorganizational loss of the retinal pigment epithelium, and abnormal photoreceptor inner-segment ellipsoid (ISe) and external limiting membrane reflectance band. Conclusions With topographical accuracy, dark-adapted sensitivity measurements can be made in STGD1 and normal controls with the MP-1S. Sensitivity loss is associated with structural changes. This finding can be useful for the determination of optimal areas for potential improvement of retinal function in Stargardt patients. PMID:24280667

On the Matter of Dark Matter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Orrell, John L.

The mission of the USS Enterprise was to “boldly go where no one has gone before.” And so it is with Particle Physicist John Orrell as he seeks to solve the conundrum of elusive dark matter. It’s a mystery that PNNL scientists have chased for more than 25 years. And, if dark matter is discovered, it will change our entire understanding of how the universe was formed. The first experiments to locate dark matter were conducted underground using specialized, radiation detector technology developed at PNNL.

Measuring Solar Radiation Incident on Earth: Solar Constant-3 (SOLCON-3)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crommelynck, Dominique; Joukoff, Alexandre; Dewitte, Steven

2002-01-01

Life on Earth is possible because the climate conditions on Earth are relatively mild. One element of the climate on Earth, the temperature, is determined by the heat exchanges between the Earth and its surroundings, outer space. The heat exchanges take place in the form of electromagnetic radiation. The Earth gains energy because it absorbs solar radiation, and it loses energy because it emits thermal infrared radiation to cold space. The heat exchanges are in balance: the heat gained by the Earth through solar radiation equals the heat lost through thermal radiation. When the balance is perturbed, a temperature change and hence a climate change of the Earth will occur. One possible perturbation of the balance is the CO2 greenhouse effect: when the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere increases, this will reduce the loss of thermal infrared radiation to cold space. Earth will gain more heat and hence the temperature will rise. Another perturbation of the balance can occur through variation of the amount of energy emitted by the sun. When the sun emits more energy, this will directly cause a rise of temperature on Earth. For a long time scientists believed that the energy emitted by the sun was constant. The 'solar constant' is defined as the amount of solar energy received per unit surface at a distance of one astronomical unit (the average distance of Earth's orbit) from the sun. Accurate measurements of the variations of the solar constant have been made since 1978. From these we know that the solar constant varies approximately with the 11-year solar cycle observed in other solar phenomena, such as the occurrence of sunspots, dark spots that are sometimes visible on the solar surface. When a sunspot occurs on the sun, since the spot is dark, the radiation (light) emitted by the sun drops instantaneously. Oddly, periods of high solar activity, when a lot of sunspot numbers increase, correspond to periods when the average solar constant is high. This indicates that the background on which the sunspots occur becomes brighter during high solar activity.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Jiachen; Zhang, Kai; Liu, Junfeng

Solar reflective “cool roofs” absorb less sunlight than traditional dark roofs, reducing solar heat gain, and decreasing the amount of heat transferred to the atmosphere. Widespread adoption of cool roofs could therefore reduce temperatures in urban areas, partially mitigating the urban heat island effect, and contributing to reversing the local impacts of global climate change. The impacts of cool roofs on global climate remain debated by past research and are uncertain. Using a sophisticated Earth system model, the impacts of cool roofs on climate are investigated at urban, continental, and global scales. We find that global adoption of cool roofsmore » in urban areas reduces urban heat islands everywhere, with an annual- and global-mean decrease from 1.6 to 1.2 K. Decreases are statistically significant, except for some areas in Africa and Mexico where urban fraction is low, and some high-latitude areas during wintertime. Analysis of the surface and TOA energy budget in urban regions at continental-scale shows cool roofs causing increases in solar radiation leaving the Earth-atmosphere system in most regions around the globe, though the presence of aerosols and clouds are found to partially offset increases in upward radiation. Aerosols dampen cool roof-induced increases in upward solar radiation, ranging from 4% in the United States to 18% in more polluted China. Adoption of cool roofs also causes statistically significant reductions in surface air temperatures in urbanized regions of China (0.11±0.10 K) and the United States (0.14±0.12 K); India and Europe show statistically insignificant changes. The research presented here indicates that adoption of cool roofs around the globe would lead to statistically insignificant reductions in global mean air temperature (0.0021 ±0.026 K). This counters past research suggesting that cool roofs can reduce, or even increase global mean temperatures. Thus, we suggest that while cool roofs are an effective tool for reducing building energy use in hot climates, urban heat islands, and regional air temperatures, their influence on global climate is likely negligible.« less

Climate model studies of synchronously rotating planets.

PubMed

Joshi, Manoj

2003-01-01

M stars constitute 75% of main sequence stars though, until recently, their star systems have not been considered suitable places for habitable planets to exist. In this study the climate of a synchronously rotating planet around an M dwarf star is evaluated using a three-dimensional global atmospheric circulation model. The presence of clouds and evaporative cooling at the surface of the planet result in a cooler surface temperature at the subsolar point. Water ice forms at the polar regions and on the dark side, where the minimum temperature lies between -30 degrees C and 0 degrees C. As expected, rainfall is extremely high on the starlit side and extremely low on the dark side. The presence of a dry continent causes higher temperatures on the dayside, and allows accumulation of snow on the nightside. The absence of any oceans leads to higher day-night temperature differences, consistent with previous work. The present study reinforces recent conclusions that synchronously rotating planets within the circumstellar habitable zones of M dwarf stars should be habitable, and therefore M dwarf systems should not be excluded in future searches for exoplanets.

Determinants of climate change adaptation strategies used by fish farmers in Epe Local Government Area of Lagos State, Nigeria.

PubMed

Arimi, Kayode S

2014-05-01

Undesirable impacts of climate change have been a common occurrence that has made fish farmers in developing countries adopt some climate-change adaptation strategies. However, little is known about determinants of climate-change adaptation strategies used by these fish farmers. This study, therefore, articulates novelties on adaptation to climate change, as well ascertains determinants of adaptation strategies used by fish farmers in Epe, Lagos State, Nigeria. Climate change adaptation strategies mostly used by fish farmers include frequent seeking for early warning information about climate change (76.7%) and avoidance of areas susceptible to flooding (60.0%). Climate-change adaptation strategies used by fish farmers were significantly influenced by access to early warning information (β = 7.21), knowledge of farmers about climate change adaptation strategies (β = 8.86), access to capital (β = 28.25), and participation in workshop and conferences (β = 37.19) but were reduced by number of fish stocking (β = -2.06). The adaptation strategies used by fish farmers were autonomous and mostly determined by the access to credit facilities and information. Development policy should focus on carbon capture and storage technology in order to reduce adverse impacts of climate change, as well as making early warning information on climate change available to fish farmers. These will enhance adaptation to climate change. © 2013 Society of Chemical Industry.

Slope Streaks on a Dusty Planet

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-05-06

Mars is a dusty place and in some locations thick blankets of its characteristically red dust can slowly settle out of the atmosphere and accumulate on slopes. This dust is also a lot brighter than the dust-free terrain on Mars; so, if you scrape off the dust, you'll see a darker surface underneath. This particular image shows one of these dusty areas. The dark streaks on the slopes are locations where the dust has slumped downhill revealing a less dusty surface underneath. In some cases, these slope streaks might be triggered by Marsquakes or nearby meteorite impacts. Scientists think they form quickly: more like an avalanche than dust slowly creeping downhill. Look more closely and you'll notice that some streaks are darker than others. Dust is settling out of the atmosphere all the time and these dark streaks get slowly buried by fresh dust so that they fade back into their brighter redder surroundings. It's not certain how long this fading takes to happen, but it's probably close to a few decades. Dust is an important player in the weather and climate on Mars. Images like this are used to monitor slow changes in these streaks over time to better understand how much dust is settling on the surface. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA19456

Quantitative analysis of iris changes after physiologic and pharmacologic mydriasis in a rural Chinese population.

PubMed

Zhang, Ye; Li, Si Zhen; Li, Lei; He, Ming Guang; Thomas, Ravi; Wang, Ning Li

2014-04-24

To estimate and compare the change in iris cross-sectional area (IA) and iris volume (IV) following physiologic and pharmacologic pupil dilation in primary angle closure suspects (PACS) and normal subjects. Anterior segment-optical coherence tomography (AS-OCT) measurements in light, dark, and following pharmacologic dilation were obtained on 186 PACS and 224 normal subjects examined during the 5-year follow-up of the Handan Eye Study. Iris cross-sectional area, IV, and other biometric parameters calculated using the Zhongshan angle assessment program in the right eyes of all subjects were analyzed. The mean IA and IV decreased in dark compared with light and after pharmacologic dilation in both PACS and normal eyes. This change was statistically significant in normal eyes: light versus pharmacologic dilation for IA (P = 0.038) and for IV, both light versus dark (P = 0.031) and light versus pharmacologic dilation (P = 0.012). A longer axial length (P = 0.028) and a greater change in pupil diameter (PD) (P < 0.001) were associated with a larger decrease of IA for the light to dark comparison. A diagnosis of normal eyes (P = 0.011), larger PD in dark (P = 0.001), and a larger change in PD (P = 0.001) were associated with a larger decrease of IV from light to dark. The differences in iris behavior between PACS and normal rural Chinese subjects following physiologic or pharmacologic pupillary dilation may help provide insights into the pathogenesis of angle closure. Copyright 2014 The Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology, Inc.

Aerosol optical depth trend over the Middle East

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klingmueller, Klaus; Pozzer, Andrea; Metzger, Swen; Abdelkader, Mohamed; Stenchikov, Georgiy; Lelieveld, Jos

2016-04-01

We use the combined Dark Target/Deep Blue aerosol optical depth (AOD) satellite product of the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) collection 6 to study trends over the Middle East between 2000 and 2015. Our analysis corroborates a previously identified positive AOD trend over large parts of the Middle East during the period 2001 to 2012. By relating the annual AOD to precipitation, soil moisture and surface wind, being the main factors controlling the dust cycle, we identify regions where these attributes are significantly correlated to the AOD over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran. The Fertile Crescent turns out to be of prime importance for the AOD trend over these countries. Using multiple linear regression we show that AOD trend and interannual variability can be attributed to the above mentioned dust cycle parameters, confirming that the AOD increase is predominantly driven by dust. In particular, the positive AOD trend relates to a negative soil moisture trend. This suggests that increasing temperature and decreasing relative humidity in the last decade have promoted soil drying, leading to increased dust emissions and AOD; consequently an AOD increase is expected due to climate change. Based on simulations using the ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry-climate model (EMAC), we interpret the correlations identified in the observational data in terms of causal relationships.

The fate of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century arising from changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and land use.

PubMed

Zhang, Ke; de Almeida Castanho, Andrea D; Galbraith, David R; Moghim, Sanaz; Levine, Naomi M; Bras, Rafael L; Coe, Michael T; Costa, Marcos H; Malhi, Yadvinder; Longo, Marcos; Knox, Ryan G; McKnight, Shawna; Wang, Jingfeng; Moorcroft, Paul R

2015-02-20

There is considerable interest in understanding the fate of the Amazon over the coming century in the face of climate change, rising atmospheric CO 2 levels, ongoing land transformation, and changing fire regimes within the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under the combined impact of these four environmental forcings using three terrestrial biosphere models (ED2, IBIS, and JULES) forced by three bias-corrected IPCC AR4 climate projections (PCM1, CCSM3, and HadCM3) under two land-use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO 2 fertilization, land-use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent. Our results indicate that the impacts of climate change are primarily determined by the direction and severity of projected changes in regional precipitation: under the driest climate projection, climate change alone is predicted to reduce Amazonian forest cover by an average of 14%. However, the models predict that CO 2 fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate-induced increases in plant water stress, and, as a result, sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario. Land-use change and climate-driven changes in fire frequency are predicted to cause additional aboveground biomass loss and reductions in forest extent. The relative impact of land use and fire dynamics compared to climate and CO 2 impacts varies considerably, depending on both the climate and land-use scenario, and on the terrestrial biosphere model used, highlighting the importance of improved quantitative understanding of all four factors - climate change, CO 2 fertilization effects, fire, and land use - to the fate of the Amazon over the coming century. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Heat shock protein 70 and heat shock protein 90 expression in light- and dark-adapted adult octopus retinas.

PubMed

Ochoa, Gina H; Clark, Ying Mei; Matsumoto, Brian; Torres-Ruiz, Jose A; Robles, Laura J

2002-02-01

Light- and dark-adaptation leads to changes in rhabdom morphology and photopigment distribution in the octopus retina. Molecular chaperones, including heat shock proteins (Hsps), may be involved in specific signaling pathways that cause changes in photoreceptor actin- and tubulin-based cytoskeletons and movement of the photopigments, rhodopsin and retinochrome. In this study, we used immunoblotting, in situ RT-PCR, immunofluorescence and confocal microscopy to localize the inducible form of Hsp70 and the larger Hsp90 in light- and dark-adapted and dorsal and ventral halves of adult octopus retinas. The Hsps showed differences in distribution between the light and dark and in dorsal vs. ventral position in the retina. Double labeling confocal microscopy co-localized Hsp70 with actin and tubulin, and Hsp90 with the photopigment, retinochrome. Our results demonstrate the presence of Hsp70 and Hsp90 in otherwise non-stressed light- and dark-adapted octopus retinas. These Hsps may help stabilize the cytoskeleton, important for rhabdom structure, and are perhaps involved in the redistribution of retinochrome in conditions of light and dark.

Intermediate-scale community-level flux of CO 2 and CH 4 in a Minnesota peatland: Putting the SPRUCE project in a global context

DOE PAGES

Hanson, Paul J.; Gill, Allison; Xu, Xiaofeng; ...

2016-08-20

Peatland measurements of CO 2 and CH 4 flux were obtained at scales appropriate to the in situ biological community below the tree layer to demonstrate representativeness of the spruce and peatland responses under climatic and environmental change (SPRUCE) experiment. Surface flux measurements were made using dual open-path analyzers over an area of 1.13 m 2 in daylight and dark conditions along with associated peat temperatures, water table height, hummock moisture, atmospheric pressure and incident radiation data. Observations from August 2011 through December 2014 demonstrated seasonal trends correlated with temperature as the dominant apparent driving variable. The S1-Bog for themore » SPRUCE study was found to be representative of temperate peatlands in terms of CO 2 and CH 4 flux. Maximum net CO 2 flux in midsummer showed similar rates of C uptake and loss: daytime surface uptake was -5 to -6 µmol m -2 s -1 and dark period loss rates were 4–5 µmol m -2 s -1 (positive values are carbon lost to the atmosphere). Maximum midsummer CH4-C flux ranged from 0.4 to 0.5 µmol m -2 s -1 and was a factor of 10 lower than dark CO 2–C efflux rates. Midwinter conditions produced near-zero flux for both CO 2 and CH 4 with frozen surfaces. Integrating temperature-dependent models across annual periods showed dark CO 2–C and CH 4–C flux to be 894 ± 34 and 16 ± 2 gC m -2 y -1, respectively. Net ecosystem exchange of carbon from the shrub-forb-Sphagnum-microbial community (excluding tree contributions) ranged from -3.1 gCO2–C m -2 y -1 in 2013, to C losses from 21 to 65 gCO 2–C m -2 y -1 for the other years.« less

Long-term experiment on physiological responses to synergetic effects of ocean acidification and photoperiod in the Antarctic sea ice algae Chlamydomonas sp. ICE-L.

PubMed

Xu, Dong; Wang, Yitao; Fan, Xiao; Wang, Dongsheng; Ye, Naihao; Zhang, Xiaowen; Mou, Shanli; Guan, Zheng; Zhuang, Zhimeng

2014-07-15

Studies on ocean acidification have mostly been based on short-term experiments of low latitude with few investigations of the long-term influence on sea ice communities. Here, the combined effects of ocean acidification and photoperiod on the physiological response of the Antarctic sea ice microalgae Chlamydomonas sp. ICE-L were examined. There was a general increase in growth, PSII photosynthetic parameters, and N and P uptake in continuous light, compared to those exposed to regular dark and light cycles. Elevated pCO2 showed no consistent effect on growth rate (p=0.8) and N uptake (p=0.38) during exponential phrase, depending on the photoperiod but had a positive effect on PSII photosynthetic capacity and P uptake. Continuous dark reduced growth, photosynthesis, and nutrient uptake. Moreover, intracellular lipid, mainly in the form of PUFA, was consumed at 80% and 63% in low and high pCO2 in darkness. However, long-term culture under high pCO2 gave a more significant inhibition of growth and Fv/Fm to high light stress. In summary, ocean acidification may have significant effects on Chlamydomonas sp. ICE-L survival in polar winter. The current study contributes to an understanding of how a sea ice algae-based community may respond to global climate change at high latitudes.

Methods of dark signal determination for CCD array spectroradiometers used in solar UVR measurements.

PubMed

Baczynska, K A; Khazova, M

2015-02-01

The methods of the dark signal determination by direct contemporaneous measurements using a light spectrum and modelling of the dark signal based on the dark signal characterisation data were discussed. These techniques were tested with two charge-couple detectors (CCD) array spectroradiometers used in solar UVR measurements. The sensitivity of both instruments was significantly reduced when shutters were used; the measured signal varied by up to 12% depending on the orientation of the shutter. The shutters should be permanently attached to the SSR, so that the orientation cannot be changed to prevent an increase in uncertainty. The method of using blind pixels from the optically inactive part of the CCD array in a light spectrum could be used to derive the dark signal with some limitations for integration times <10 s for the QE65000. An alternative method of deriving the dark signal from light measurements using out-of-range pixels has been proved impossible due to out-of-range stray light in both instruments. The dark signal was characterised for the range of integration times and ambient temperatures of 15-35°C. Based on these data, the model of the dark signal was developed so that a single value of the dark signal can be subtracted over the whole spectral range if the instrument temperature is known. © Crown copyright 2014.

Integrated Assessment of Climate Change, Agricultural Land Use, and Regional Carbon Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MU, J.

2014-12-01

Changes in land use have caused a net release of carbon to the atmosphere over the last centuries and decades1. On one hand, agriculture accounts for 52% and 84% of global anthropogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions, respectively. On the other hand, many agricultural practices can potentially mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the most prominent of which are improved cropland and grazing land management2. From this perspective, land use change that reduces emissions and/or increases carbon sequestration can play an important role in climate change mitigation. As shown in Figure 1, this paper is an integrated study of climate impacts, land uses, and regional carbon changes to examine, link and assess climate impacts on regional carbon changes via impacts on land uses. This study will contribute to previous research in two aspects: impacts of climate change on future land uses under an uncertain future world and projections of regional carbon dynamics due to changes in future land use. Specifically, we will examine how land use change under historical climate change using observed data and then project changes in land use under future climate projections from 14 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two emission scenarios (i.e., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). More importantly, we will investigate future land use under uncertainties with changes in agricultural development and social-economic conditions along with a changing climate. By doing this, we then could integrate with existing efforts by USGS land-change scientists developing and parameterizing models capable of projecting changes across a full spectrum of land use and land cover changes and track the consequences on ecosystem carbon to provide better information for land managers and policy makers when informing climate change adaptation and mitigation policies.

On the Matter of Dark Matter

ScienceCinema

Orrell, John L.

2018-05-31

The mission of the USS Enterprise was to “boldly go where no one has gone before.” And so it is with Particle Physicist John Orrell as he seeks to solve the conundrum of elusive dark matter. It’s a mystery that PNNL scientists have chased for more than 25 years. And, if dark matter is discovered, it will change our entire understanding of how the universe was formed. The first experiments to locate dark matter were conducted underground using specialized, radiation detector technology developed at PNNL.

Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

Treesearch

Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Sean A. Parks

2016-01-01

Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not...

Land use compounds habitat losses under projected climate change in a threatened California ecosystem.

PubMed

Riordan, Erin Coulter; Rundel, Philip W

2014-01-01

Given the rapidly growing human population in mediterranean-climate systems, land use may pose a more immediate threat to biodiversity than climate change this century, yet few studies address the relative future impacts of both drivers. We assess spatial and temporal patterns of projected 21(st) century land use and climate change on California sage scrub (CSS), a plant association of considerable diversity and threatened status in the mediterranean-climate California Floristic Province. Using a species distribution modeling approach combined with spatially-explicit land use projections, we model habitat loss for 20 dominant shrub species under unlimited and no dispersal scenarios at two time intervals (early and late century) in two ecoregions in California (Central Coast and South Coast). Overall, projected climate change impacts were highly variable across CSS species and heavily dependent on dispersal assumptions. Projected anthropogenic land use drove greater relative habitat losses compared to projected climate change in many species. This pattern was only significant under assumptions of unlimited dispersal, however, where considerable climate-driven habitat gains offset some concurrent climate-driven habitat losses. Additionally, some of the habitat gained with projected climate change overlapped with projected land use. Most species showed potential northern habitat expansion and southern habitat contraction due to projected climate change, resulting in sharply contrasting patterns of impact between Central and South Coast Ecoregions. In the Central Coast, dispersal could play an important role moderating losses from both climate change and land use. In contrast, high geographic overlap in habitat losses driven by projected climate change and projected land use in the South Coast underscores the potential for compounding negative impacts of both drivers. Limiting habitat conversion may be a broadly beneficial strategy under climate change. We emphasize the importance of addressing both drivers in conservation and resource management planning.

Spatial vector soliton and its collisions in isotropic self-defocusing Kerr media.

PubMed

Radhakrishnan, R; Aravinthan, K

2007-06-01

A fairly general form of the two-component (dark-dark) vector one-soliton solution of the integrable coupled nonlinear Schrödinger equation (Manakov model) with self-defocusing nonlinearity is obtained by using the Hirota method. It couples two dark components with the same envelope width, envelope speed, and envelope trough location using two complex arbitrary parameters not only in the envelope amplitude but also in the complex modulation. Although it has the freedom to change its pulse width without affecting its speed, it can also tune its grayness (depth of the pulse relative to background) without disturbing the envelope width and speed. The variations in peak power against the depth of localization of two dark components are investigated with and without a parametric restriction. The collision between many dark-dark vector solitons has also been studied by constructing a multisoliton solution with more free parameters.

Implication of Agricultural Land Use Change on Regional Climate Projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

2015-12-01

Agricultural land use plays an important role in land-atmosphere interaction. Agricultural activity is one of the most important processes driving human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) in a region. In addition to future socioeconomic changes, climate-induced changes in crop yield represent another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In feedback, the resulting LULCC influences the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. Therefore, assessment of climate change impact on future agricultural land use and its feedback is of great importance in climate change study. In this study, to evaluate the feedback of projected land use changes to the regional climate in West Africa, we employed an asynchronous coupling between a regional climate model (RegCM) and a prototype land use projection model (LandPro). The LandPro model, which was developed to project the future change in agricultural land use and the resulting shift in natural vegetation in West Africa, is a spatially explicit model that can account for both climate and socioeconomic changes in projecting future land use changes. In the asynchronously coupled modeling framework, LandPro was run for every five years during the period of 2005-2050 accounting for climate-induced change in crop yield and socioeconomic changes to project the land use pattern by the mid-21st century. Climate data at 0.5˚ was derived from RegCM to drive the crop model DSSAT for each of the five-year periods to simulate crop yields, which was then provided as input data to LandPro. Subsequently, the land use land cover map required to run RegCM was updated every five years using the outputs from the LandPro simulations. Results from the coupled model simulations improve the understanding of climate change impact on future land use and the resulting feedback to regional climate.

On Award to Crichton

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corbett, Kevin

2006-10-01

The recent Eos Forum article from the Council of the American Quaternary Association (AMQUA) attacking the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG)(Eos, 87(36), 364, 2006) goes beyond the pale of reasonable promotion or defense of AGU's position regarding global climate change and is a lamentable low for AGU in overarching political demagoguery. It is certainly within the purview of AGU to adopt a position concerning anthropogenic forcing of current global warming, as the association did in 2003. However, to challenge the competency, integrity, and intent of another scientific organization whose council and members read the data differently is truly reprehensible. The tone of the letter and AGU' position in promoting this view are nothing short of evangelical environmentalism with a dark shade of inquisitional environmental repression. Truly, the credibility, impartiality, and integrity of AGU are at question in the debate over climate science. Evidently, AMQUA believes its position to be so righteous that it should sit in judgment on all other professional scientific societies. Such a poorly reasoned and self-justifying position screams political bias.

Climate change, future Arctic Sea ice, and the competitiveness of European Arctic offshore oil and gas production on world markets.

PubMed

Petrick, Sebastian; Riemann-Campe, Kathrin; Hoog, Sven; Growitsch, Christian; Schwind, Hannah; Gerdes, Rüdiger; Rehdanz, Katrin

2017-12-01

A significant share of the world's undiscovered oil and natural gas resources are assumed to lie under the seabed of the Arctic Ocean. Up until now, the exploitation of the resources especially under the European Arctic has largely been prevented by the challenges posed by sea ice coverage, harsh weather conditions, darkness, remoteness of the fields, and lack of infrastructure. Gradual warming has, however, improved the accessibility of the Arctic Ocean. We show for the most resource-abundant European Arctic Seas whether and how a climate induced reduction in sea ice might impact future accessibility of offshore natural gas and crude oil resources. Based on this analysis we show for a number of illustrative but representative locations which technology options exist based on a cost-minimization assessment. We find that under current hydrocarbon prices, oil and gas from the European offshore Arctic is not competitive on world markets.

Mid-latitude afforestation shifts general circulation and tropical precipitation.

PubMed

Swann, Abigail L S; Fung, Inez Y; Chiang, John C H

2012-01-17

We show in climate model experiments that large-scale afforestation in northern mid-latitudes warms the Northern Hemisphere and alters global circulation patterns. An expansion of dark forests increases the absorption of solar energy and increases surface temperature, particularly in regions where the land surface is unable to compensate with latent heat flux due to water limitation. Atmospheric circulation redistributes the anomalous energy absorbed in the northern hemisphere, in particular toward the south, through altering the Hadley circulation, resulting in the northward displacement of the tropical rain bands. Precipitation decreases over parts of the Amazon basin affecting productivity and increases over the Sahel and Sahara regions in Africa. We find that the response of climate to afforestation in mid-latitudes is determined by the amount of soil moisture available to plants with the greatest warming found in water-limited regions. Mid-latitude afforestation is found to have a small impact on modeled global temperatures and on global CO(2), but regional heating from the increase in forest cover is capable of driving unintended changes in circulation and precipitation. The ability of vegetation to affect remote circulation has implications for strategies for climate mitigation.

Sensitivity of Atom Interferometry to Ultralight Scalar Field Dark Matter.

PubMed

Geraci, Andrew A; Derevianko, Andrei

2016-12-23

We discuss the use of atom interferometry as a tool to search for dark matter (DM) composed of virialized ultralight fields (VULFs). Previous work on VULF DM detection using accelerometers has considered the possibility of equivalence-principle-violating effects whereby gradients in the dark matter field can directly produce relative accelerations between media of differing composition. In atom interferometers, we find that time-varying phase signals induced by coherent oscillations of DM fields can also arise due to changes in the atom rest mass that can occur between light pulses throughout the interferometer sequence as well as changes in Earth's gravitational field. We estimate that several orders of magnitude of unexplored phase space for VULF DM couplings can be probed due to these new effects.

The Fate of Amazonian Ecosystems over the Coming Century Arising from Changes in Climate, Atmospheric CO2 and Land-use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moorcroft, P. R.; Zhang, K.; Castanho, A. D. D. A.; Galbraith, D.; Moghim, S.; Levine, N. M.; Bras, R. L.; Coe, M. T.; Costa, M. H.; Malhi, Y.; Longo, M.; Knox, R. G.; McKnight, S. L.; Wang, J.

2014-12-01

There is considerable interest and uncertainty regarding the expected fate of the Amazon over the coming century in face of the combined impacts of climate change, rising atmospheric CO2 levels, and on-going land transformation in the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under projected climate, CO2 and land-use change in the 21st century using three state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models (ED2, IBIS, and JULES) driven by three representative, bias-corrected GCM climate projections (PCM1, CCSM3, and HadCM3) under the SRES A2 scenario, coupled with two land-use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO2 fertilization, land-use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent. Our results indicate that the impacts of climate change depend strongly on the direction and severity of projected changes in precipitation regimes within the region: under the driest climate projection, climate change alone is predicted to reduce Amazonian forest cover by an average of 14%; however, the models predict that CO2 fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate-induced increases in plant water stress, and as a result sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario. Land-use change and changes in fire frequency are predicted cause additional aboveground live biomass loss and changes in forest extent. The relative impact of land-use and fire dynamics versus the impacts of climate and CO2 on the Amazon varies considerably, depending on both the climate and land-use scenarios used and on the terrestrial biosphere model, highlighting the importance of improved understanding of all four factors -- future climate, CO2 fertilization effects, fire and land-use -- to the fate of the Amazon over the coming century.

Effect of historical land-use and climate change on tree-climate relationships in the upper Midwestern United States.

PubMed

Goring, Simon J; Williams, John W

2017-04-01

Contemporary forest inventory data are widely used to understand environmental controls on tree species distributions and to construct models to project forest responses to climate change, but the stability and representativeness of contemporary tree-climate relationships are poorly understood. We show that tree-climate relationships for 15 tree genera in the upper Midwestern US have significantly altered over the last two centuries due to historical land-use and climate change. Realised niches have shifted towards higher minimum temperatures and higher rainfall. A new attribution method implicates both historical climate change and land-use in these shifts, with the relative importance varying among genera and climate variables. Most climate/land-use interactions are compounding, in which historical land-use reinforces shifts in species-climate relationships toward wetter distributions, or confounding, in which land-use complicates shifts towards warmer distributions. Compounding interactions imply that contemporary-based models of species distributions may underestimate species resilience to climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Probing the sign-changeable interaction between dark energy and dark matter with current observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Juan-Juan; Zhang, Jing-Fei; Li, Yun-He; He, Dong-Ze; Zhang, Xin

2018-03-01

We consider the models of vacuum energy interacting with cold dark matter in this study, in which the coupling can change sigh during the cosmological evolution. We parameterize the running coupling b by the form b( a) = b 0 a+ b e(1- a), where at the early-time the coupling is given by a constant b e and today the coupling is described by another constant b 0. We explore six specific models with (i) Q = b( a) H 0 ρ 0, (ii) Q = b( a) H 0 ρ de, (iii) Q = b( a) H 0 ρ c, (iv) Q = b( a) Hρ 0, (v) Q = b( a) H ρ de, and (vi) Q = b( a) Hρ c. The current observational data sets we use to constrain the models include the JLA compilation of type Ia supernova data, the Planck 2015 distance priors data of cosmic microwave background observation, the baryon acoustic oscillations measurements, and the Hubble constant direct measurement. We find that, for all the models, we have b 0 < 0 and b e > 0 at around the 1 σ level, and b 0 and b e are in extremely strong anti-correlation. Our results show that the coupling changes sign during the evolution at about the 1 σ level, i.e., the energy transfer is from dark matter to dark energy when dark matter dominates the universe and the energy transfer is from dark energy to dark matter when dark energy dominates the universe.

Climate and anthropogenic factors influencing an estuarine ecosystem from NW Iberia: new high resolution multiproxy analyses from San Simón Bay (Ría de Vigo)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muñoz Sobrino, Castor; García-Moreiras, Iria; Castro, Yoel; Martínez Carreño, Natalia; de Blas, Esther; Fernandez Rodríguez, Carlos; Judd, Alan; García-Gil, Soledad

2014-06-01

Two sedimentary sequences (coastal and subtidal) were studied in San Simón Bay (Ría de Vigo), situated on the Atlantic coast of NW Iberia. The coastal record is a shallowing upward sequence which evidences a locally-developed low marsh, situated below the current beach, and dated at the second half of the 4th century. During the following decades this low marsh was progressively replaced by an alder swamp which formed on it. This suggests an apparent stabilisation or slow-down of the relative sea-level (RSL), in this site, at the beginning of the Dark Ages (DA). The subtidal sequence studied reflects the main changes in the landscape, the hydrological conditions, climate and RSL affecting this part of NW Iberia during the last 1250 years. Evidence of changing dinocysts content in the sediment reveals that two centennial or decadal-scale episodes existed of shelf marine waters more intensely penetrating inside the bay: between the 15th-18th centuries and at ca 1800-1930 AD. Besides, we related different proxies with the occurrence of four main climatic stages, namely the previously described Dark Ages (DA, ca 350-750 AD), the Mediaeval Climatic Anomaly (MCA, ca 750-1100 AD) and the Little Ice Age (LIA. ca 1500-1930 AD); in addition we propose a regional MCA/LIA transition (ca 1100-1500 AD) that it has not been previously described. Our environmental characterization indicates a persistent North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) negative mode domain in Ría de Vigo during the MCA, but this became weaker during the LIA and, probably, also during the earlier DA. NAO mode become more irregular during the MCA/LIA transition, generally persisting in dominant negative mode except for a phase of minor upwelling intensification, at ca 1150-1350 AD, which mainly affected the external parts of the ria. We postulate that an almost simultaneous phase (ca 1100-1350 AD) of stronger continental contribution in the sediments may be related to increasing storm intensities, probably linked to a reinforcement of the Easter Atlantic (EA) pattern; and also that the intertidal/supratidal ecosystems inside San Simón Bay may have extended further in the past, at least towards the end of the 5th century, and between ca 1050-1350 AD and ca 1450-1750 AD. A number of local historical references are consistent with our palaeoecological data and so support the chronology proposed as well as many of the environmental changes reconstructed. This good agreement will help in the interpretation of other analogous sequences extending back in time.

Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

PubMed Central

Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Xu, Yi; Li, Shuo

2016-01-01

Land use change and climate variability are two key factors impacting watershed hydrology, which is strongly related to the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. This study assessed separate and combined hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of a typical arid inland river basin, known as the Heihe River Basin, northwest China, in the recent past (1995–2014) and near future (2015–2024), by combining two land use models (i.e., Markov chain model and Dyna-CLUE) with a hydrological model (i.e., SWAT). The potential impacts in the near future were explored using projected land use patterns and hypothetical climate scenarios established on the basis of analyzing long-term climatic observations. Land use changes in the recent past are dominated by the expansion of grassland and a decrease in farmland; meanwhile the climate develops with a wetting and warming trend. Land use changes in this period induce slight reductions in surface runoff, groundwater discharge and streamflow whereas climate changes produce pronounced increases in them. The joint hydrological impacts are similar to those solely induced by climate changes. Spatially, both the effects of land use change and climate variability vary with the sub-basin. The influences of land use changes are more identifiable in some sub-basins, compared with the basin-wide impacts. In the near future, climate changes tend to affect the hydrological regimes much more prominently than land use changes, leading to significant increases in all hydrological components. Nevertheless, the role of land use change should not be overlooked, especially if the climate becomes drier in the future, as in this case it may magnify the hydrological responses. PMID:27348224

Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China.

PubMed

Zhang, Ling; Nan, Zhuotong; Xu, Yi; Li, Shuo

2016-01-01

Land use change and climate variability are two key factors impacting watershed hydrology, which is strongly related to the availability of water resources and the sustainability of local ecosystems. This study assessed separate and combined hydrological impacts of land use change and climate variability in the headwater region of a typical arid inland river basin, known as the Heihe River Basin, northwest China, in the recent past (1995-2014) and near future (2015-2024), by combining two land use models (i.e., Markov chain model and Dyna-CLUE) with a hydrological model (i.e., SWAT). The potential impacts in the near future were explored using projected land use patterns and hypothetical climate scenarios established on the basis of analyzing long-term climatic observations. Land use changes in the recent past are dominated by the expansion of grassland and a decrease in farmland; meanwhile the climate develops with a wetting and warming trend. Land use changes in this period induce slight reductions in surface runoff, groundwater discharge and streamflow whereas climate changes produce pronounced increases in them. The joint hydrological impacts are similar to those solely induced by climate changes. Spatially, both the effects of land use change and climate variability vary with the sub-basin. The influences of land use changes are more identifiable in some sub-basins, compared with the basin-wide impacts. In the near future, climate changes tend to affect the hydrological regimes much more prominently than land use changes, leading to significant increases in all hydrological components. Nevertheless, the role of land use change should not be overlooked, especially if the climate becomes drier in the future, as in this case it may magnify the hydrological responses.

Seasonal Variations in Color Preference.

PubMed

Schloss, Karen B; Nelson, Rolf; Parker, Laura; Heck, Isobel A; Palmer, Stephen E

2017-08-01

We investigated how color preferences vary according to season and whether those changes could be explained by the ecological valence theory (EVT). To do so, we assessed the same participants' preferences for the same colors during fall, winter, spring, and summer in the northeastern United States, where there are large seasonal changes in environmental colors. Seasonal differences were most pronounced between fall and the other three seasons. Participants liked fall-associated dark-warm colors-for example, dark-red, dark-orange (brown), dark-yellow (olive), and dark-chartreuse-more during fall than other seasons. The EVT could explain these changes with a modified version of Palmer and Schloss' (2010) weighted affective valence estimate (WAVE) procedure that added an activation term to the WAVE equation. The results indicate that color preferences change according to season, as color-associated objects become more/less activated in the observer. These seasonal changes in color preferences could not be characterized by overall shifts in weights along cone-contrast axes. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Examining the effect of down regulation under high [CO2] on the growth of soybean assimilating a semi process-based model and FACE data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Yokozawa, M.

2011-12-01

The actual impact of elevated [CO2] with the interaction of the other climatic factors on the crop growth is still debated. In many process-based crop models, the response of photosynthesis per single leaf to environmental factors is basically described using the biochemical model of Farquhar et al. (1980). However, the decline in photosynthetic enhancement known as down regulation has not been taken into account. On the other hand, the mechanisms causing photosynthetic down regulation is still unknown, which makes it difficult to include the effect of down regulation into process-based crop models. The current results of Free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments have reported the effect of down regulation under actual environments. One of the effective approaches to involve these results into future crop yield prediction is developing a semi process-based crop growth model, which includes the effect of photosynthetic down regulation as a statistical model, and assimilating the data obtained in FACE experiments. In this study, we statistically estimated the parameters of a semi process-based model for soybean growth ('SPM-soybean') using a hierarchical Baysian method with the FACE data on soybeans (Morgan et al. 2005). We also evaluated the effect of down regulation on the soybean yield in future climatic conditions. The model selection analysis showed that the effective correction to the overestimation of the Farquhar's biochemical C3 model was to reduce the maximum rate of carboxylation (Vcmax) under elevated [CO2]. However, interestingly, the difference in the estimated final crop yields between the corrected model and the non-corrected model was very slight (Fig.1a) for future projection under climate change scenario (Miroc-ESM). This was due to that the reduction in Vcmax also brought about the reduction of the base dark respiration rate of leaves. Because the dark respiration rate exponentially increases with temperature, the slight difference in base respiration rate becomes a large difference under high temperature under the future climate scenarios. In other words, if the temperature rise is very small or zero under elevated [CO2] condition, the effect of down regulation significantly appears (Fig.1b). This result suggest that further experimental data that considering high CO2 effect and high temperature effect in field conditions should be important and elaborate the model projection of the future crop yield through data assimilation method.

Photodegradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils under a climate change base scenario.

PubMed

Marquès, Montse; Mari, Montse; Audí-Miró, Carme; Sierra, Jordi; Soler, Albert; Nadal, Martí; Domingo, José L

2016-04-01

The photodegradation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in two typical Mediterranean soils, either coarse- or fine-textured, was here investigated. Soil samples, spiked with the 16 US EPA priority PAHs, were incubated in a climate chamber at stable conditions of temperature (20 °C) and light (9.6 W m(-2)) for 28 days, simulating a climate change base scenario. PAH concentrations in soils were analyzed throughout the experiment, and correlated with data obtained by means of Microtox(®) ecotoxicity test. Photodegradation was found to be dependent on exposure time, molecular weight of each hydrocarbon, and soil texture. Fine-textured soil was able to enhance sorption, being PAHs more photodegraded than in coarse-textured soil. According to the EC50 values reported by Microtox(®), a higher detoxification was observed in fine-textured soil, being correlated with the outcomes of the analytical study. Significant photodegradation rates were detected for a number of PAHs, namely phenanthrene, anthracene, benzo(a)pyrene, and indeno(123-cd)pyrene. Benzo(a)pyrene, commonly used as an indicator for PAH pollution, was completely removed after 7 days of light exposure. In addition to the PAH chemical analysis and the ecotoxicity tests, a hydrogen isotope analysis of benzo(a)pyrene was also carried out. The degradation of this specific compound was associated to a high enrichment in (2)H, obtaining a maximum δ(2)H isotopic shift of +232‰. This strong isotopic effect observed in benzo(a)pyrene suggests that compound-specific isotope analysis (CSIA) may be a powerful tool to monitor in situ degradation of PAHs. Moreover, hydrogen isotopes of benzo(a)pyrene evidenced a degradation process of unknown origin occurring in the darkness. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spring and Summer Changes at the South Pole as Seen by the Mars Orbiter Camera

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ingersoll, A. P.; Murray, B. C.; Byrne, S.; DeJong, E.; Danielson, G. E.; Herkenhoff, K. E.; Kieffer, H. H.; Soderblom, L. A.

2000-01-01

The Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) on the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) spacecraft has been able to follow individual features as the CO2 frost disappears and exposes the material underneath. Because the orbit of MGS is inclined at an angle of 93 degrees relative to the equator, the spacecraft gets especially good coverage of the ring at 87 degrees latitude. The following is a list of phenomena that have been seen during the spring and summer at the South Pole: (1) Circular depressions that are approximately ten meters deep and hundreds of meters in diameter. They are found only within the residual polar cap, the part that survives the summer. The high areas between the depressions are flat-topped mesas whose sides are concave circular arcs. In some places the depressions form patterns that exhibit north-south symmetry, suggesting some control by sunlight; (2) Dark layers that are exposed on the walls of the mesas. Each layer is at most a few meters thick. The dark layers might accumulate during climatic episodes of high atmospheric dust content, or they might accumulate during the annual cycling of dusty CO2; (3) Albedo differences that develop during the summer within the residual cap. These include subtle darkening of the floors of the depressions relative to the mesas and occasional major darkening of the floors, especially near the edge of the cap. The floors and mesas form a distinct stratum, suggesting they represent a distinct compositional boundary. For instance the floors may be water and the mesas may be CO2; (4) Small dark features that appear in spring on the seasonal frost outside the residual cap. Some of the features have parallel tails that are clearly shaped by the wind. Others are more symmetric, like dark snowflakes, with multiple branching arms. After the CO2 frost has disappeared the arms are seen as troughs and the centers as topographic lows; (5) Polygons whose sides are dark troughs. Those that are outside the residual cap seem to disappear when the frost disappears. The polygons and the dark snowflakelike structures may be related, and suggest that CO2 frost may form cohesive slabs; (6) Irregular depressions outside the residual cap. They look like degraded versions of the circular depressions inside the residual cap, and may be a remnant of the cap's changing location; and (7) Areas of burial and exhumation of circular depressions. Thomas et al. give an example with a sharp boundary: On one side the depressions are buried and on the other side they are exposed. In other cases there are rounded troughs up to one kilometer wide, which are dark in summer and appear to have eroded down below the floor of the circular depressions.

Simultaneous Retrieval of Multiple Aerosol Parameters Using a Multi-Angular Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuo, K.-S.; Weger, R. C.; Welch, R. M.

1997-01-01

Atmospheric aerosol particles, both natural and anthropogenic, are important to the earth's radiative balance through their direct and indirect effects. They scatter the incoming solar radiation (direct effect) and modify the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by acting as cloud condensation nuclei (indirect effect). Although it has been suggested that aerosols exert a net cooling influence on climate, this effect has received less attention than the radiative forcing due to clouds and greenhouse gases. In order to understand the role that aerosols play in a changing climate, detailed and accurate observations are a prerequisite. The retrieval of aerosol optical properties by satellite remote sensing has proven to be a difficult task. The difficulty results mainly from the tenuous nature and variable composition of aerosols. To date, with single-angle satellite observations, we can only retrieve reliably against dark backgrounds, such as over oceans and dense vegetation. Even then, assumptions must be made concerning the chemical composition of aerosols. In this investigation we examine the feasibility of simultaneous retrieval of multiple aerosol optical parameters using reflectances from a typical set of twelve angles observed by the French POLDER instrument. The retrieved aerosol optical parameters consist of asymmetry factor, single scattering albedo, surface albedo, and optical thickness.

Effect of shorter dark adaptation on ISCEV standard DA 0.01 and DA 3 skin ERGs in healthy adults.

PubMed

Hamilton, R; Graham, K

2016-08-01

To quantify dark-adapted (DA) skin ERG changes during 20 min of dark adaptation. Sixteen healthy adult subjects were dark-adapted for 20 min during which ISCEV standard dim (0.01 phot cd s m(-2)) white flash ERGs were recorded at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 15 and 20 min, and bright (3 phot cd s m(-2)) white ERGs were recorded at 2, 5, 10, 15 and 20 min without mydriasis and using skin electrodes. Amplitudes and peak times were normalised to 20 min values. Halving dark adaptation from 20 to 10 min had no measureable effect on the DA 3 ERG and caused a 10 % amplitude loss (range 0-23 %) only for the DA 0.01 ERG b-wave amplitude. No significant peak time changes resulted, nor increased parameter variability. Reducing dark adaptation from 20 to 10 min or even less has an effect on only DA 0.01 ERGs. Shorter dark adaptation than 20 min may not compromise the clinical utility of the ERG providing clinics adhere to the usual standards of adequate reference data.

Exploring the Multifaceted Topic of Climate Change in Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

2015-12-01

As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.

Spatial heterogeneity of greening and browning between and within bioclimatic zones in northern West Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miles, Victoria V.; Esau, Igor

2016-11-01

Studies of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) have found broad changes in vegetation productivity in high northern latitudes in the past decades, including increases in NDVI (‘greening’) in tundra regions and decreases (‘browning’) in forest regions. The causes of these changes are not well understood but have been attributed to a variety of factors. We use Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) satellite data for 2000-2014 and focus on northern West Siberia—a hot spot of extensive landcover change due to rapid resource development, geomorphic change, climate change and reindeer grazing. The region is relatively little-studied in terms of vegetation productivity patterns and trends. This study examines changes between and within bioclimatic sub-zones and reveals differences between forest and treeless areas and differences in productivity even down to the tree species level. Our results show that only 18% of the total northern West Siberia area had statistically significant changes in productivity, with 8.4% increasing (greening) and 9.6% decreasing (browning). We find spatial heterogeneity in the trends, and contrasting trends both between and within bioclimatic zones. A key finding is the identification of contrasting trends for different species within the same bioclimatic zone. Browning is most prominent in areas of denser tree coverage, and particularly in evergreen coniferous forest with dark (Picea abie, Picea obovata) or light (Pinus sylvestris) evergreen and evergreen-majority mixed forests. In contrast, low density deciduous needle-leaf forest dominated by larch (Larix sibirica), shows a significant increase in productivity, even while neighboring different species show productivity decrease. These results underscore the complexity of the patterns of variability and trends in vegetation productivity, and suggest the need for spatially and thematically detailed studies to better understand the response of different northern forest types and species to climate and environmental change.

The use of religious metaphors by UK newspapers to describe and denigrate climate change.

PubMed

Woods, Ruth; Fernández, Ana; Coen, Sharon

2012-04-01

British newspapers have denigrated anthropogenic climate change by misrepresenting scientific consensus and/or framing climate change within unsympathetic discourses. One aspect of the latter that has not been studied is the use of metaphor to disparage climate change science and proponents. This article analyses 122 British newspaper articles published using a religious metaphor between summer 2003 and 2008. Most were critical of climate change, especially articles in conservative newspapers The Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail and The Times. Articles used religion as a source of metaphor to denigrate climate change in two ways: (1) undermining its scientific status by presenting it as irrational faith-based religion, and proponents as religious extremists intolerant of criticism; (2) mocking climate change using notions of sin, e.g. describing 'green' behaviours as atonement or sacrifice. We argue that the religious metaphor damages constructive debate by emphasizing morality and how climate change is discussed, and detracting attention from the content of scientific data and theories.

Land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change: implications for land-based mitigation?

PubMed

Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Müller, Christoph; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bonsch, Markus; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Weindl, Isabelle; Biewald, Anne; Rolinski, Susanne

2015-06-02

Climate change has impacts on agricultural yields, which could alter cropland requirements and hence deforestation rates. Thus, land-use responses to climate change might influence terrestrial carbon stocks. Moreover, climate change could alter the carbon storage capacity of the terrestrial biosphere and hence the land-based mitigation potential. We use a global spatially explicit economic land-use optimization model to (a) estimate the mitigation potential of a climate policy that provides economic incentives for carbon stock conservation and enhancement, (b) simulate land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change (RCP2.6), and (c) investigate the combined effects throughout the 21st century. The climate policy immediately stops deforestation and strongly increases afforestation, resulting in a global mitigation potential of 191 GtC in 2100. Climate change increases terrestrial carbon stocks not only directly through enhanced carbon sequestration (62 GtC by 2100) but also indirectly through less deforestation due to higher crop yields (16 GtC by 2100). However, such beneficial climate impacts increase the potential of the climate policy only marginally, as the potential is already large under static climatic conditions. In the broader picture, this study highlights the importance of land-use dynamics for modeling carbon cycle responses to climate change in integrated assessment modeling.

Impacts of climate change on land-use and wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rashford, Benjamin S.; Adams, Richard M.; Wu, Jun; Voldseth, Richard A.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Werner, Brett; Johnson, W. Carter

2016-01-01

Wetland productivity in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North America is closely linked to climate. A warmer and drier climate, as predicted, will negatively affect the productivity of PPR wetlands and the services they provide. The effect of climate change on wetland productivity, however, will not only depend on natural processes (e.g., evapotranspiration), but also on human responses. Agricultural land use, the predominant use in the PPR, is unlikely to remain static as climate change affects crop yields and prices. Land use in uplands surrounding wetlands will further affect wetland water budgets and hence wetland productivity. The net impact of climate change on wetland productivity will therefore depend on both the direct effects of climate change on wetlands and the indirect effects on upland land use. We examine the effect of climate change and land-use response on semipermanent wetland productivity by combining an economic model of agricultural land-use change with an ecological model of wetland dynamics. Our results suggest that the climate change scenarios evaluated are likely to have profound effects on land use in the North and South Dakota PPR, with wheat displacing other crops and pasture. The combined pressure of land-use and climate change significantly reduces wetland productivity. In a climate scenario with a +4 °C increase in temperature, our model predicts that almost the entire region may lack the wetland productivity necessary to support wetland-dependent species.

Accounting for multiple climate components when estimating climate change exposure and velocity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.

2015-01-01

The effect of anthropogenic climate change on organisms will likely be related to climate change exposure and velocity at local and regional scales. However, common methods to estimate climate change exposure and velocity ignore important components of climate that are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms.We develop a novel index of climate change (climate overlap) that simultaneously estimates changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables. Specifically, we estimate the overlap between multivariate normal probability distributions representing historical and current or projected future climates. We provide methods for estimating the statistical significance of climate overlap values and methods to estimate velocity using climate overlap.We show that climates have changed significantly across 80% of the continental United States in the last 32 years and that much of this change is due to changes in the variation and correlation between weather variables (two statistics that are rarely incorporated into climate change studies). We also show that projected future temperatures are predicted to be locally novel (<1·5% overlap) across most of the global land surface and that exposure is likely to be highest in areas with low historical climate variation. Last, we show that accounting for changes in the variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect velocity estimates; mean velocity estimates in the continental United States were between 3·1 and 19·0 km yr−1when estimated using climate overlap compared to 1·4 km yr−1 when estimated using traditional methods.Our results suggest that accounting for changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect estimates of climate change exposure and velocity. These climate components are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms, but are ignored by most measures of climate change. We conclude with a set of future directions and recommend future work to determine which measures of climate change exposure and velocity are most related to biological responses to climate change.

Signal Trees: Communicating Attribution of Climate Change Impacts Through Causal Chain Illustrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cutting, H.

2016-12-01

Communicating the attribution of current climate change impacts is a key task for engagment with the general public, news media and policy makers, particularly as climate events unfold in real time. The IPCC WGII in AR5 validated the use of causal chain illustrations to depict attribution of individual climate change impacts. Climate Signals, an online digital platform for mapping and cataloging climate change impacts (launched in May of 2016), explores the use of such illustrations for communicating attribution. The Climate Signals project has developed semi-automated graphing software to produce custom attribution trees for numerous climate change events. This effort offers lessons for engagement of the general public and policy makers in the attribution of climate change impacts.

Spatiotemporal analysis of the effect of climate change on vegetation health in the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa.

PubMed

Mukwada, Geoffrey; Manatsa, Desmond

2018-05-24

The impact of climate change on mountain ecosystems has been in the spotlight for the past three decades. Climate change is generally considered to be a threat to ecosystem health in mountain regions. Vegetation indices can be used to detect shifts in ecosystem phenology and climate change in mountain regions while satellite imagery can play an important role in this process. However, what has remained problematic is determining the extent to which ecosystem phenology is affected by climate change under increasingly warming conditions. In this paper, we use climate and vegetation indices that were derived from satellite data to investigate the link between ecosystem phenology and climate change in the Namahadi Catchment Area of the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa. The time series for climate indices as well as those for gridded precipitation and temperature data were analyzed in order to determine climate shifts, and concomitant changes in vegetation health were assessed in the resultant epochs using vegetation indices. The results indicate that vegetation indices should only be used to assess trends in climate change under relatively pristine conditions, where human influence is limited. This knowledge is important for designing climate change monitoring strategies that are based on ecosystem phenology and vegetation health.

Land Use Compounds Habitat Losses under Projected Climate Change in a Threatened California Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Riordan, Erin Coulter; Rundel, Philip W.

2014-01-01

Given the rapidly growing human population in mediterranean-climate systems, land use may pose a more immediate threat to biodiversity than climate change this century, yet few studies address the relative future impacts of both drivers. We assess spatial and temporal patterns of projected 21st century land use and climate change on California sage scrub (CSS), a plant association of considerable diversity and threatened status in the mediterranean-climate California Floristic Province. Using a species distribution modeling approach combined with spatially-explicit land use projections, we model habitat loss for 20 dominant shrub species under unlimited and no dispersal scenarios at two time intervals (early and late century) in two ecoregions in California (Central Coast and South Coast). Overall, projected climate change impacts were highly variable across CSS species and heavily dependent on dispersal assumptions. Projected anthropogenic land use drove greater relative habitat losses compared to projected climate change in many species. This pattern was only significant under assumptions of unlimited dispersal, however, where considerable climate-driven habitat gains offset some concurrent climate-driven habitat losses. Additionally, some of the habitat gained with projected climate change overlapped with projected land use. Most species showed potential northern habitat expansion and southern habitat contraction due to projected climate change, resulting in sharply contrasting patterns of impact between Central and South Coast Ecoregions. In the Central Coast, dispersal could play an important role moderating losses from both climate change and land use. In contrast, high geographic overlap in habitat losses driven by projected climate change and projected land use in the South Coast underscores the potential for compounding negative impacts of both drivers. Limiting habitat conversion may be a broadly beneficial strategy under climate change. We emphasize the importance of addressing both drivers in conservation and resource management planning. PMID:24466116

A Review on Climate Change in Weather Stations of Guilan Province Using Mann-Kendal Methodand GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behzadi, Jalal

2016-07-01

Climate has always been changing during the life time of the earth, and has appeared in the form of ice age, hurricanes, severe and sudden temperature changes, precipitation and other climatic elements, and has dramatically influenced the environment, and in some cases has caused severe changes and even destructions. Some of the most important aspects of climate changes can be found in precipitation types of different regions in the world and especially Guilan, which is influenced by drastic land conversions and greenhouse gases. Also, agriculture division, industrial activities and unnecessary land conversions are thought to have a huge influence on climate change. Climate change is a result of abnormalcies of metorologyl parameters. Generally, the element of precipitation is somehow included in most theories about climate change. The present study aims to reveal precipitation abnormalcies in Guilan which lead to climate change, and possible deviations of precipitation parameter based on annual, seasonal and monthly series have been evaluated. The Mann-Kendal test has been used to reveal likely deviations leading to climate change. The trend of precipitation changes in long-term has been identifiedusing this method. Also, the beginning and end of these changes have been studied in five stations as representatives of all the thirteen weather stations. Then,the areas which have experienced climate change have been identified using the GIS software along with the severity of the changes with an emphasis on drought. These results can be used in planning and identifying the effects of these changes on the environment. Keywords: Climate Change, Guilan, Mann-Kendal, GIS

Dispersal limitation drives successional pathways in Central Siberian forests under current and intensified fire regimes.

PubMed

Tautenhahn, Susanne; Lichstein, Jeremy W; Jung, Martin; Kattge, Jens; Bohlman, Stephanie A; Heilmeier, Hermann; Prokushkin, Anatoly; Kahl, Anja; Wirth, Christian

2016-06-01

Fire is a primary driver of boreal forest dynamics. Intensifying fire regimes due to climate change may cause a shift in boreal forest composition toward reduced dominance of conifers and greater abundance of deciduous hardwoods, with potential biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks to regional and global climate. This shift has already been observed in some North American boreal forests and has been attributed to changes in site conditions. However, it is unknown if the mechanisms controlling fire-induced changes in deciduous hardwood cover are similar among different boreal forests, which differ in the ecological traits of the dominant tree species. To better understand the consequences of intensifying fire regimes in boreal forests, we studied postfire regeneration in five burns in the Central Siberian dark taiga, a vast but poorly studied boreal region. We combined field measurements, dendrochronological analysis, and seed-source maps derived from high-resolution satellite images to quantify the importance of site conditions (e.g., organic layer depth) vs. seed availability in shaping postfire regeneration. We show that dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers was the main factor determining postfire regeneration composition and density. Site conditions had significant but weaker effects. We used information on postfire regeneration to develop a classification scheme for successional pathways, representing the dominance of deciduous hardwoods vs. evergreen conifers at different successional stages. We estimated the spatial distribution of different successional pathways under alternative fire regime scenarios. Under intensified fire regimes, dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers is predicted to become more severe, primarily due to reduced abundance of surviving seed sources within burned areas. Increased dispersal limitation of evergreen conifers, in turn, is predicted to increase the prevalence of successional pathways dominated by deciduous hardwoods. The likely fire-induced shift toward greater deciduous hardwood cover may affect climate-vegetation feedbacks via surface albedo, Bowen ratio, and carbon cycling. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Phenomenology of ELDER dark matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuflik, Eric; Perelstein, Maxim; Lorier, Nicolas Rey-Le; Tsai, Yu-Dai

2017-08-01

We explore the phenomenology of Elastically Decoupling Relic (ELDER) dark matter. ELDER is a thermal relic whose present density is determined primarily by the cross-section of its elastic scattering off Standard Model (SM) particles. Assuming that this scattering is mediated by a kinetically mixed dark photon, we argue that the ELDER scenario makes robust predictions for electron-recoil direct-detection experiments, as well as for dark photon searches. These predictions are independent of the details of interactions within the dark sector. Together with the closely related Strongly-Interacting Massive Particle (SIMP) scenario, the ELDER predictions provide a physically motivated, well-defined target region, which will be almost entirely accessible to the next generation of searches for sub-GeV dark matter and dark photons. We provide useful analytic approximations for various quantities of interest in the ELDER scenario, and discuss two simple renormalizable toy models which incorporate the required strong number-changing interactions among the ELDERs, as well as explicitly implement the coupling to electrons via the dark photon portal.

Conceptual problems in detecting the evolution of dark energy when using distance measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolejko, K.

2011-01-01

Context. Dark energy is now one of the most important and topical problems in cosmology. The first step to reveal its nature is to detect the evolution of dark energy or to prove beyond doubt that the cosmological constant is indeed constant. However, in the standard approach to cosmology, the Universe is described by the homogeneous and isotropic Friedmann models. Aims: We aim to show that in the perturbed universe (even if perturbations vanish if averaged over sufficiently large scales) the distance-redshift relation is not the same as in the unperturbed universe. This has a serious consequence when studying the nature of dark energy and, as shown here, can impair the analysis and studies of dark energy. Methods: The analysis is based on two methods: the linear lensing approximation and the non-linear Szekeres Swiss-Cheese model. The inhomogeneity scale is ~50 Mpc, and both models have the same density fluctuations along the line of sight. Results: The comparison between linear and non-linear methods shows that non-linear corrections are not negligible. When inhomogeneities are present the distance changes by several percent. To show how this change influences the measurements of dark energy, ten future observations with 2% uncertainties are generated. It is shown the using the standard methods (i.e. under the assumption of homogeneity) the systematics due to inhomogeneities can distort our analysis, and may lead to a conclusion that dark energy evolves when in fact it is constant (or vice versa). Conclusions: Therefore, if future observations are analysed only within the homogeneous framework then the impact of inhomogeneities (such as voids and superclusters) can be mistaken for evolving dark energy. Since the robust distinction between the evolution and non-evolution of dark energy is the first step to understanding the nature of dark energy a proper handling of inhomogeneities is essential.

Abrupt Climate Change Caused by Global Fires from a Large Meteor Impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bardeen, C.; Toon, O. B.; Garcia, R. R.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Wolf, E. T.

2015-12-01

Global or near-global fires like those that are thought to have occurred after the Chicxulub asteroid impact are associated with abrupt climate change and the K-Pg mass extinction event. Using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), a three-dimensional coupled climate model with interactive chemistry, we have simulated the climate response to global fires assuming a burden of 70,000 Tg, as estimated from the K-Pg layer sediments by Wolbach et al. (1988). Soot aerosols are lofted by solar heating and remain in the atmosphere for about 6 years, warming the stratosphere by more than 240 K and suppressing completely solar radiation at the surface for 2 years. Global average land surface temperatures cool by -28 K after 3 years and ocean temperatures by -11 K after 4 years. Precipitation is reduced by 80 % for 5 years, and the ozone column is reduced by 80 % for 4 years. The tropical tropopause cold point disappears for a few years, leading to water vapor mixing ratios of > 1000 ppmv in the stratosphere. There is a rapid recovery around year 6, when the soot is removed by wet deposition as stratospheric water condenses and precipitates, but this is followed by a peak in the UV Index in the tropics of over 40 before stratospheric ozone recovers. Ocean temperature cools by more than -2 K to a depth of 300 m, and sea ice develops in the Black Sea, Caspian Sea, and Baltic Sea. Global fires, two years of darkness, extreme surface cooling, significant ocean cooling, increases in sea ice extent and a large short-term increase in UV Index would have been catastrophic for many life forms. This work is the first step in an effort to simulate the climatic effects of all of the aerosols and gases that may have been generated by the Chicxulub impact in a model that has been configured for late-Cretaceous conditions to help assess the role of the Chicxulub impact in the K-Pg extinction.

Using Local Stories as a Call to Action on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Minnesota

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phipps, M.

2015-12-01

Climate Generation: A Will Steger Legacy and the University of Minnesota's Regional Sustainability Development Partnerships (RSDP) have developed a novel approach to engaging rural Minnesotans on climate change issues. Through the use of personal, local stories about individuals' paths to action to mitigate and or adapt to climate change, Climate Generation and RSDP aim to spur others to action. Minnesota's Changing Climate project includes 12 Climate Convenings throughout rural Minnesota in a range of communities (tourism-based, agrarian, natural resources-based, university towns) to engage local populations in highly local conversations about climate change, its local impacts, and local solutions currently occurring. Climate Generation and RSDP have partnered with Molly Phipps Consulting to evaluate the efficacy of this approach in rural Minnesota. Data include pre and post convening surveys examining participants' current action around climate change, attitudes toward climate change (using questions from Maibach, Roser-Renouf, and Leiserowitz, 2009), and the strength of their social network to support their current and ongoing work toward mitigating and adapting to climate change. Although the Climate Convenings are tailored to each community, all include a resource fair of local organizations already engaging in climate change mitigation and adaptation activities which participants can participate in, a welcome from a trusted local official, a presentation on the science of climate change, sharing of local climate stories, and break-out groups where participants can learn how to get involved in a particular mitigation or adaptation strategy. Preliminary results have been positive: participants feel motivated to work toward mitigating and adapting to climate change, and more local stories have emerged that can be shared in follow-up webinars and on a project website to continue to inspire others to act.

Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming.

PubMed

Sheridan, Jennifer A; Caruso, Nicholas M; Apodaca, Joseph J; Rissler, Leslie J

2018-01-01

Changes in body size and breeding phenology have been identified as two major ecological consequences of climate change, yet it remains unclear whether climate acts directly or indirectly on these variables. To better understand the relationship between climate and ecological changes, it is necessary to determine environmental predictors of both size and phenology using data from prior to the onset of rapid climate warming, and then to examine spatially explicit changes in climate, size, and phenology, not just general spatial and temporal trends. We used 100 years of natural history collection data for the wood frog, Lithobates sylvaticus with a range >9 million km 2 , and spatially explicit environmental data to determine the best predictors of size and phenology prior to rapid climate warming (1901-1960). We then tested how closely size and phenology changes predicted by those environmental variables reflected actual changes from 1961 to 2000. Size, phenology, and climate all changed as expected (smaller, earlier, and warmer, respectively) at broad spatial scales across the entire study range. However, while spatially explicit changes in climate variables accurately predicted changes in phenology, they did not accurately predict size changes during recent climate change (1961-2000), contrary to expectations from numerous recent studies. Our results suggest that changes in climate are directly linked to observed phenological shifts. However, the mechanisms driving observed body size changes are yet to be determined, given the less straightforward relationship between size and climate factors examined in this study. We recommend that caution be used in "space-for-time" studies where measures of a species' traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climate conditions. Future studies should aim to determine mechanisms driving trends in phenology and body size, as well as the impact of climate on population density, which may influence body size.

Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Sokolov, A. P.; Schlosser, C. A.; Scott, J. R.; Gao, X.

2013-12-01

We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity, with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere, to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three dimensional atmospheric model; and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate-change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for key sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections; climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate); natural variability; and structural uncertainty. Results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also nd that dierent initial conditions lead to dierences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider all sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia.

Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Schlosser, Adam; Scott, Jeffery; Gao, Xiang

2013-12-01

We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three-dimensional atmospheric model, and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for four major sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections, climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate), natural variability, and structural uncertainty. The results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also find that different initial conditions lead to differences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider these sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia.

Do High-elevation Lakes Record Variations in Snowfall and Atmospheric Rivers in the Sierra Nevada of California?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashford, J.; Sickman, J. O.; Lucero, D. M.

2014-12-01

Understanding the underlying causes of interannual variation in snowfall and extreme hydrologic events in the Sierra Nevada is hampered by short instrumental records and the difficulties in reconstructing climate using a traditional paleo-record such as tree-rings. New paleo proxies are needed to provide a record of snowpack water content and extreme precipitation events over millennial timescales which can be used to test hypotheses regarding teleconnections between Pacific climate variability and water supply and flood risk in California. In October 2013 we collected sediment cores from Pear Lake (z = 27 m), an alpine lake in Sequoia National Park. The cores were split and characterized by P-wave velocity, magnetic susceptibility and density scanning. Radiocarbon dates indicate that the Pear Lake cores contain a 13.5K yr record of lake sediment. In contrast to other Sierra Nevada lakes previously cored by our group, high-resolution scanning revealed alternating light-dark bands (~1 mm to 5 mm thick) for most of the Pear Lake core length. This pattern was interrupted at intervals by homogenous clasts (up to 75 mm thick) ranging in grain size from sand to gravel up to 1 cm diameter. We hypothesize that the light-dark banding results from the breakdown of persistent hypolimnetic anoxia during spring snowmelt and autumn overturn. We speculate that the thicknesses of the dark bands are controlled by the duration of anoxia which in turn is controlled by the volume and duration of snowmelt. The sand to gravel sized clasts are most likely associated with extreme precipitation events resulting from atmospheric rivers intersecting the southern Sierra Nevada. We hypothesize that centimeter-sized clasts are deposited in large avalanches and that the sands are deposited in large rain events outside of the snow-cover period.

Space Radar Image of Death Valley, California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1999-01-01

This image shows Death Valley, California, centered at 36.629 degrees north latitude, 117.069 degrees west longitude. The image shows Furnace Creek alluvial fan and Furnace Creek Ranch at the far right, and the sand dunes near Stove Pipe Wells at the center. The dark fork-shaped feature between Furnace Creek fan and the dunes is a smooth flood-plain which encloses Cottonball Basin. This SIR-C/X-SAR supersite is an area of extensive field investigations and has been visited by both Space Radar Lab astronaut crews. Elevations in the valley range from 70 meters (230 feet) below sea level, the lowest in the United States, to more than 3,300 meters (10,800 feet) above sea level. Scientists are using SIR-C/X-SAR data from Death Valley to help answer a number of different questions about Earth's geology. One question concerns how alluvial fans are formed and change through time under the influence of climatic changes and earthquakes. Alluvial fans are gravel deposits that wash down from the mountains over time. They are visible in the image as circular, fan-shaped bright areas extending into the darker valley floor from the mountains. Information about the alluvial fans helps scientists study Earth's ancient climate. Scientists know the fans are built up through climatic and tectonic processes and they will use the SIR-C/X-SAR data to understand the nature and rates of weathering processes on the fans, soil formation and the transport of sand and dust by the wind. SIR-C/X-SAR's sensitivity to centimeter-scale (inch-scale) roughness provides detailed maps of surface texture. Such information can be used to study the occurrence and movement of dust storms and sand dunes. The goal of these studies is to gain a better understanding of the record of past climatic changes and the effects of those changes on a sensitive environment. This may lead to a better ability to predict future response of the land to different potential global climate-change scenarios. Death Valley is also one of the primary calibration sites for SIR-C/X-SAR. The bright dots near the center of the image are corner reflectors that have been set-up to calibrate the radar as the shuttle passes overhead. Thirty triangular-shaped reflectors (they look like aluminum pyramids) have been deployed by the calibration team from JPL over a 40- by 40-kilometer (25- by 25-mile) area in and around Death Valley. The calibration team will also deploy transponders (electronic reflectors) and receivers to measure the radar signals from SIR-C/X-SAR on the ground. SIR-C/X-SAR is part of NASA's Mission to Planet Earth. The radars illuminate Earth with microwaves allowing detailed observations at any time, regardless of weather or sunlight conditions. SIR-C/X-SAR uses three microwave wavelengths: L-band (24 cm), C-band (6 cm) and X-band (3 cm). The multi-frequency data will be used by the international scientific community to better understand the global environment and how it is changing. The SIR-C/X-SAR data, complemented by aircraft and ground studies, will give scientists clearer insights into those environmental changes which are caused by nature and those changes which are induced by human activity. SIR-C was developed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. X-SAR was developed by the Dornier and Alenia Spazio companies for the German space agency, Deutsche Agentur fuer Raumfahrtangelegenheiten (DARA), and the Italian space agency, Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI).

Dark chocolate exacerbates acne.

PubMed

Vongraviopap, Saivaree; Asawanonda, Pravit

2016-05-01

The effects of chocolate on acne exacerbations have recently been reevaluated. For so many years, it was thought that it had no role in worsening acne. To investigate whether 99% dark chocolate, when consumed in regular daily amounts, would cause acne to worsen in acne-prone male subjects, twenty-five acne prone male subjects were asked to consume 25 g of 99% dark chocolate daily for 4 weeks. Assessments which included Leeds revised acne scores as well as lesion counts took place weekly. Food frequency questionnaire was used, and daily activities were recorded. Statistically significant changes of acne scores and numbers of comedones and inflammatory papules were detected as early as 2 weeks into the study. At 4 weeks, the changes remained statistically significant compared to baseline. Dark chocolate when consumed in normal amounts for 4 weeks can exacerbate acne in male subjects with acne-prone skin. © 2015 The International Society of Dermatology.

Creating a consistent dark-target aerosol optical depth record from MODIS and VIIRS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levy, R. C.; Mattoo, S.; Munchak, L. A.; Patadia, F.; Holz, R.

2014-12-01

To answer fundamental questions about our changing climate, we must quantify how aerosols are changing over time. This is a global question that requires regional characterization, because in some places aerosols are increasing and in others they are decreasing. Although NASA's Moderate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) sensors have provided quantitative information about global aerosol optical depth (AOD) for more than a decade, the creation of an aerosol climate data record (CDR) requires consistent multi-decadal data. With the Visible and Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) aboard Suomi-NPP, there is potential to continue the MODIS aerosol time series. Yet, since the operational VIIRS aerosol product is produced by a different algorithm, it is not suitable to continue MODIS to create an aerosol CDR. Therefore, we have applied the MODIS Dark-target (DT) algorithm to VIIRS observations, taking into account the slight differences in wavelengths, resolutions and geometries between the two sensors. More specifically, we applied the MODIS DT algorithm to a dataset known as the Intermediate File Format (IFF), created by the University of Wisconsin. The IFF is produced for both MODIS and VIIRS, with the idea that a single (MODIS-like or ML) algorithm can be run either dataset, which can in turn be compared to the MODIS Collection 6 (M6) retrieval that is run on standard MODIS data. After minimizing or characterizing remaining differences between ML on MODIS-IFF (or ML-M) and M6, we have performed apples-to-apples comparison between ML-M and ML on VIIRS IFF (ML-V). Examples of these comparisons include time series of monthly global mean, monthly and seasonal global maps at 1° resolution, and collocations as compared to AERONET. We concentrate on the overlapping period January 2012 through June 2014, and discuss some of the remaining discrepancies between the ML-V and ML-M datasets.

A high resolution history of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation and of the solar activity during the Late Glacial - Early Holocene in the subtropical Andean region.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giralt, S.; Schimmel, M.; Hernández, A.; Bao, R.; Valero-Garcés, B. L.; Sáez, A.; Pueyo, J. J.

2009-04-01

High-resolution laminated lacustrine sediments are excellent archives of the past hydrological changes and they provide valuable insights about the climatic processes that trigger these changes. The paleoclimatic records located in the Southern Hemisphere are fundamental for understanding the evolution of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since this climatic phenomena is the main cause of droughts and floods in many areas of South America and other regions of the world, like Spain and Egypt. Available regional paleoclimate reconstructions show that modern climatic patterns in South America were established during the Late Holocene. The laminated sediments of Lago Chungará (18° 15' S - 69° 10' W, 4520 m a.s.l., Chilean altiplano) have allowed us to characterize the evolution of this climatic phenomena for the transition Late Glacial - Early Holocene (12,300 - 9,500 calendar years BP) as well as its relationship with other climate forcings, namely the solar activity. The studied sediments correspond to the lowermost 2.4 m of 8 m long Kullemberg cores recovered from this lake. These sediments are mainly made up of greenish and whitish laminae and thin layers constituted by diatomaceous oozes with carbonates and organic matter, arranged in rhythms and cycles. X-ray fluorescence (XRF) (Al, Si, S, K, Ca, Ti, Mn, Fe, Rb, Sr, Zn, Sb and Ba) analyses, total organic carbon (TOC), total carbon (TC), x-ray diffraction (XRD), biogenic silica, stable isotopes (delta18O and delta13C) on carbonates and on diatoms (delta18O) and magnetic susceptibility were determined in order to characterize the sediments of Lago Chungará. Previous statistical studies (cluster and Principal Component Analyses (PCA)) were used to disentangle the paleoclimatic signal from the other ones (volcanic and tectonic). The chronological model framework was built using 6 radiocarbon dates, allowing us to establish that laminated couplets were deposited on a pluriannual basis. These couplets are composed of a lower light lamina, progressively grading upwards to a dark lamina. Light laminae are composed by diatom valves of a single species (Cyclostephanos cf. andinus), accumulated during short-term extraordinary diatom blooms when water column mixing took place under abrupt and short-term climatic events. Dark laminae contain a complex diatom assemblage and are rich in organic matter representing the baseline limnological conditions during several years of deposition. Spectral analyses (Fast Fourier Transformation - FFT - and Time Frequency - TF - analyses) were performed on the isolated paleohydrological curve and on the gray color curve calculated for these laminated sediments. The FFT analyses of the paleohydrological signal obtained from the PCA highlights the record of 35-51 years cycles, that might correspond to the solar Bruckner cycle as well as to the inter-decadal changes in the variance of the ENSO phenomena. The results of the FFT analyses carried out on the gray curve reinforce the hypothesis of the solar control on the variations in the lake productivity: the 11-years Schwabe, 22-23-years Hale, 35-years Bruckner and the approx. 90-years Gleissberg cycles, as well as a strong to very strong ENSO phenomena (8.2 and 7.5-years cycles) are recorded. The TF analyses developed on the variations of the gray-colour curve reveal that all solar frequencies have modified intensities during the Late Glacial and Early Holocene. During the low activity periods of the 11-years Schwabe cycles, strong to very strong ENSO phenomena took place. These results show that ENSO-like variability was present during the late Glacial and early Holocene in the Altiplano.

Plant trait-based models identify direct and indirect effects of climate change on bundles of grassland ecosystem services

PubMed Central

Lamarque, Pénélope; Lavorel, Sandra; Mouchet, Maud; Quétier, Fabien

2014-01-01

Land use and climate change are primary causes of changes in the supply of ecosystem services (ESs). Although the consequences of climate change on ecosystem properties and associated services are well documented, the cascading impacts of climate change on ESs through changes in land use are largely overlooked. We present a trait-based framework based on an empirical model to elucidate how climate change affects tradeoffs among ESs. Using alternative scenarios for mountain grasslands, we predicted how direct effects of climate change on ecosystems and indirect effects through farmers’ adaptations are likely to affect ES bundles through changes in plant functional properties. ES supply was overall more sensitive to climate than to induced management change, and ES bundles remained stable across scenarios. These responses largely reflected the restricted extent of management change in this constrained system, which was incorporated when scaling up plot level climate and management effects on ecosystem properties to the entire landscape. The trait-based approach revealed how the combination of common driving traits and common responses to changed fertility determined interactions and tradeoffs among ESs. PMID:25225382

Plant trait-based models identify direct and indirect effects of climate change on bundles of grassland ecosystem services.

PubMed

Lamarque, Pénélope; Lavorel, Sandra; Mouchet, Maud; Quétier, Fabien

2014-09-23

Land use and climate change are primary causes of changes in the supply of ecosystem services (ESs). Although the consequences of climate change on ecosystem properties and associated services are well documented, the cascading impacts of climate change on ESs through changes in land use are largely overlooked. We present a trait-based framework based on an empirical model to elucidate how climate change affects tradeoffs among ESs. Using alternative scenarios for mountain grasslands, we predicted how direct effects of climate change on ecosystems and indirect effects through farmers' adaptations are likely to affect ES bundles through changes in plant functional properties. ES supply was overall more sensitive to climate than to induced management change, and ES bundles remained stable across scenarios. These responses largely reflected the restricted extent of management change in this constrained system, which was incorporated when scaling up plot level climate and management effects on ecosystem properties to the entire landscape. The trait-based approach revealed how the combination of common driving traits and common responses to changed fertility determined interactions and tradeoffs among ESs.

Phantom stars and topology change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeBenedictis, Andrew; Garattini, Remo; Lobo, Francisco S. N.

2008-11-15

In this work, we consider time-dependent dark-energy star models, with an evolving parameter {omega} crossing the phantom divide {omega}=-1. Once in the phantom regime, the null energy condition is violated, which physically implies that the negative radial pressure exceeds the energy density. Therefore, an enormous negative pressure in the center may, in principle, imply a topology change, consequently opening up a tunnel and converting the dark-energy star into a wormhole. The criteria for this topology change are discussed and, in particular, we consider a Casimir energy approach involving quasilocal energy difference calculations that may reflect or measure the occurrence ofmore » a topology change. We denote these exotic geometries consisting of dark-energy stars (in the phantom regime) and phantom wormholes as phantom stars. The final product of this topological change, namely, phantom wormholes, have far-reaching physical and cosmological implications, as in addition to being used for interstellar shortcuts, an absurdly advanced civilization may manipulate these geometries to induce closed timelike curves, consequently violating causality.« less

Dynamic models of farmers adaptation to climate change (case of rice farmers in Cemoro Watershed, Central Java, Indonesia)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugihardjo; Sutrisno, J.; Setyono, P.; Suntoro

2018-03-01

Farming activities are generally very sensitive to climate change variations. Global climate change will result in changes of patterns and distribution of rainfall. The impact of changing patterns and distribution of rainfall is the occurrence of early season shifts and periods of planting. Therefore, farmers need to adapt to the occurrence of climate change to avoid the decrease productivity on the farm land. This study aims to examine the impacts of climate change adaptation that farmers practiced on the farming productivity. The analysis is conducted dynamically using the Powersim 2.5. The result of analysis shows that the use of Planting Calendar and Integrated Crops Management technology can increase the rice productivity of certain area unity. Both technologies are the alternatives for farmers to adapt to climate change. Both farmers who adapt to climate change and do not adapt to climate change, experience an increase in rice production, time after time. However, farmers who adapt to climate change, increase their production faster than farmers who do not adapt to climate change. The use of the Planting Calendar and Integrated Crops Management strategy together as a farmers’ adaptation strategy is able to increase production compared to non-adaptive farmers.

Treatment of infraorbital dark circles using 694-nm fractional Q-switched ruby laser.

PubMed

Xu, Tian-Hua; Li, Yuan-Hong; Chen, John Z S; Gao, Xing-Hua; Chen, Hong-Duo

2016-12-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of using a 694-nm fractional Q-switched ruby laser to treat infraorbital dark circles. Thirty women with infraorbital dark circles (predominant color: dark/brown) participated in this open-labeled study. The participants received eight sessions of 694-nm fractional Q-switched ruby laser treatment using a fluence of 3.0-3.5 J/cm 2 , at an interval of 7 days. The melanin deposition in the lesional skin was observed in vivo using reflectance confocal microscopy (RCM). The morphological changes were evaluated using a global evaluation, an overall self-assessment, and a Mexameter. Twenty-eight of the 30 patients showed global improvements that they rated as excellent or good. Twenty-six patients rated their overall satisfaction as excellent or good. The melanin index indicated a substantial decrease from 240.44 (baseline) to 194.56 (P < 0.05). The RCM results showed a dramatic decrease in melanin deposition in the upper dermis. The adverse effects were minimal. The characteristic finding of dark/brown infraorbital dark circles is caused by increased melanin deposition in the upper dermis. The treatment of these infraorbital dark circles using a 694-nm fractional QSR laser is safe and effective.

Dark CO2 Fixation in Gladiolus Cormels and Its Regulation during the Break of Dormancy 1

PubMed Central

Ginzburg, Chen

1975-01-01

The increase in dark CO2 fixation during cold storage of Gladiolus x gandavensis van Houtte-type grandiflorus cormels is used to monitor changes in their state of dormancy. Dark fixation is also promoted by benzyladenine, which breaks cormel dormancy, and is inhibited by abscisic acid and gibberellin A3, which inhibit cormel germination. The rate of dark fixation by nondormant cormels is five times higher than that in dormant ones. Dark fixation is not due to microorganisms. It is temperature-dependent and can be measured stoichiometrically in vivo. The apex and base of the cormels accumulate more label than the central part. Dark fixation of both dormant and nondormant cormels is also promoted by imbibition in water. The fate of the labeled assimilates was followed by ion exchange chromatography. PMID:16659256

Anoxic sediments off Central Peru record interannual to multidecadal changes of climate and upwelling ecosystem during the last two centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutiérrez, D.; Sifeddine, A.; Reyss, J. L.; Vargas, G.; Velazco, F.; Salvatteci, R.; Ferreira, V.; Ortlieb, L.; Field, D.; Baumgartner, T.; Boussafir, M.; Boucher, H.; Valdés, J.; Marinovic, L.; Soler, P.; Tapia, P.

2006-01-01

High-resolution paleo-environmental and paleo-ecological archives in laminated sequences are present in selected areas from the upper continental Peruvian margin within the oxygen minimum zone. We present initial results of a multidisciplinary study (the PALEOPECES project) that aims to reconstruct environmental and ecosystem variability during the past 200 years from high-resolution records. We report chronology development, sediment structure, elemental, organic, and mineralogical compositions of a box core collected at 300 m depth off Pisco, central Peru. An average sedimentation rate of 2.2 mm y-1 was estimated from downcore excess 210Pb activities for the last 100-150 years. Extending this rate further downcore indicates that a slump located at 52 cm depth from the top of the core can be correlated with a large tsunami that struck the coast of central Peru in 1746. X-ray analyses reveal laminated structures composed of couplets of light and dark laminae. Observations under polarized microscope show that light laminae are dominated by more dense, detrital and terrigenous material, while dark laminae are less dense with greater concentrations of amorphous biogenic silica. Downcore variations in dry bulk density and X-ray radioscopy of gray level show similar patterns, including a major shift at 34 cm depth (ca. mid-nineteenth century). A finely laminated sequence, which may include annual varves, is present between 34 cm depth and the slump layer. Sediment characteristics of the sequence suggest increased seasonality of terrigenous versus biogenous sedimentation during the corresponding period. In addition to a mid-nineteenth century change and considerable multidecadal variability in TOC, there is a positive trend in the past 50 years. Mineralogical analyses from a Fourier Transformed Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR) of the upper core covering the last 25 years, indicate higher concentrations of the mineral fraction (quartz, feldspar, kaolinite and illite) in layers including large El Niño events (1982-1983, 1986-1987 and 1997-1998), with the largest peak during the 1997-1998 episode. These results confirm that anoxic sediments off Pisco are suitable archives to investigate interannual and decadal changes in oceanographic conditions and climate of the northern Humboldt upwelling system.

Evidence that Ribulose 1,5-Bisphosphate (RuBP) Binds to Inactive Sites of RuBP Carboxylase in Vivo and an Estimate of the Rate Constant for Dissociation 1

PubMed Central

Cardon, Zoe G.; Mott, Keith A.

1989-01-01

The binding of ribulose 1,5-bisphosphate (RuBP) to inactive (noncarbamylated) sites of the enzyme RuBP carboxylase in vivo was investigated in Spinacia oleracea and Helianthus annuus. The concentrations of RuBP and inactive sites were determined in leaf tissue as a function of time after a change to darkness. RuBP concentrations fell rapidly after the change to darkness and were approximately equal to the concentration of inactive sites after 60 s. Variations in the concentration of inactive sites, which were induced by differences in the light intensity before the light-dark transition, correlated with the concentration of RuBP between 60 and 120 s after the change to darkness. These data are discussed as evidence that RuBP binds to inactive sites of RuBP carboxylase in vivo. After the concentration of RuBP fell below that of inactive sites (at times longer than 60 s of darkness), the decline in RuBP was logarithmic with time. This would be expected if the dissociation of RuBP from inactive sites controlled the decline in RuBP concentration. These data were used to estimate the rate constant for dissociation of RuBP from inactive sites in vivo. PMID:16666692

Climate change may threaten habitat suitability of threatened plant species within Chinese nature reserves

PubMed Central

Wan, Jizhong

2016-01-01

Climate change has the potential to alter the distributions of threatened plant species, and may therefore diminish the capacity of nature reserves to protect threatened plant species. Chinese nature reserves contain a rich diversity of plant species that are at risk of becoming more threatened by climate change. Hence, it is urgent to identify the extent to which future climate change may compromise the suitability of threatened plant species habitats within Chinese nature reserves. Here, we modelled the climate suitability of 82 threatened plant species within 168 nature reserves across climate change scenarios. We used Maxent modelling based on species occurrence localities and evaluated climate change impacts using the magnitude of change in climate suitability and the degree of overlap between current and future climatically suitable habitats. There was a significant relationship between overlap with current and future climate suitability of all threatened plant species habitats and the magnitude of changes in climate suitability. Our projections estimate that the climate suitability of more than 60 threatened plant species will decrease and that climate change threatens the habitat suitability of plant species in more than 130 nature reserves under the low, medium, and high greenhouse gas concentration scenarios by both 2050s and 2080s. Furthermore, future climate change may substantially threaten tree plant species through changes in annual mean temperature. These results indicate that climate change may threaten plant species that occur within Chinese nature reserves. Therefore, we suggest that climate change projections should be integrated into the conservation and management of threatened plant species within nature reserves. PMID:27326373

Future integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment considering land use / land cover and climate change using DRASTIC and SWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, W.; Engel, B.; Chaubey, I.

2015-12-01

Climate change causes significant changes to temperature regimes and precipitation patterns across the world. Such alterations in climate pose serious risks for not only inland freshwater ecosystems but also groundwater systems, and may adversely affect numerous critical services they provide to humans. All groundwater results from precipitation, and precipitation is affected by climate change. Climate change is also influenced by land use / land cover (LULC) change and vice versa. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, climate change is caused by global warming which is generated by the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere. LULC change is a major driving factor causing an increase in GHG emissions. LULC change data (years 2006-2100) will be produced by the Land Transformation Model (LTM) which simulates spatial patterns of LULC change over time. MIROC5 (years 2006-2100) will be obtained considering GCMs and ensemble characteristics such as resolution and trend of temperature and precipitation which is a consistency check with observed data from local weather stations and historical data from GCMs output data. Thus, MIROC5 will be used to account for future climate change scenarios and relationship between future climate change and alteration of groundwater quality in this study. For efficient groundwater resources management, integrated aquifer vulnerability assessments (= intrinsic vulnerability + hazard potential assessment) are required. DRASTIC will be used to evaluate intrinsic vulnerability, and aquifer hazard potential will be evaluated by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) which can simulate pollution potential from surface and transport properties of contaminants. Thus, for effective integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment for LULC and climate change in the Midwestern United States, future projected LULC and climate data from the LTM and GCMs will be incorporated with DRASTIC and SWAT. It is hypothesized that: 1) long-term future hydrology and water quality in surface and subsurface drainage areas will be influenced by LULC and climate change, and 2) this approach will be useful to identify specific areas contributing the most pollutants to aquifers due to LULC and climate change.

National climate assessment technical report on the impacts of climate and land use and land cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loveland, Thomas; Mahmood, Rezaul; Patel-Weynand, Toral; Karstensen, Krista; Beckendorf, Kari; Bliss, Norman; Carleton, Andrew

2012-01-01

This technical report responds to the recognition by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Climate Assessment (NCA) of the importance of understanding how land use and land cover (LULC) affects weather and climate variability and change and how that variability and change affects LULC. Current published, peer-reviewed, scientific literature and supporting data from both existing and original sources forms the basis for this report's assessment of the current state of knowledge regarding land change and climate interactions. The synthesis presented herein documents how current and future land change may alter environment processes and in turn, how those conditions may affect both land cover and land use by specifically investigating, * The primary contemporary trends in land use and land cover, * The land-use and land-cover sectors and regions which are most affected by weather and climate variability,* How land-use practices are adapting to climate change, * How land-use and land-cover patterns and conditions are affecting weather and climate, and * The key elements of an ongoing Land Resources assessment. These findings present information that can be used to better assess land change and climate interactions in order to better assess land management and adaptation strategies for future environmental change and to assist in the development of a framework for an ongoing national assessment.

Integrated Assessment and the Relation Between Land-Use Change and Climate Change

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Dale, V. H.

1994-10-07

Integrated assessment is an approach that is useful in evaluating the consequences of global climate change. Understanding the consequences requires knowledge of the relationship between land-use change and climate change. Methodologies for assessing the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations are considered with reference to a particular case study area: south and southeast Asia. The use of models to evaluate the consequences of climate change on forests must also consider an assessment approach. Each of these points is discussed in the following four sections.

Acclimation of Foliar Respiration and Photosynthesis in Response to Experimental Warming in a Temperate Steppe in Northern China

PubMed Central

Chi, Yonggang; Xu, Ming; Shen, Ruichang; Yang, Qingpeng; Huang, Bingru; Wan, Shiqiang

2013-01-01

Background Thermal acclimation of foliar respiration and photosynthesis is critical for projection of changes in carbon exchange of terrestrial ecosystems under global warming. Methodology/Principal Findings A field manipulative experiment was conducted to elevate foliar temperature (T leaf) by 2.07°C in a temperate steppe in northern China. R d/T leaf curves (responses of dark respiration to T leaf), A n/T leaf curves (responses of light-saturated net CO2 assimilation rates to T leaf), responses of biochemical limitations and diffusion limitations in gross CO2 assimilation rates (A g) to T leaf, and foliar nitrogen (N) concentration in Stipa krylovii Roshev. were measured in 2010 (a dry year) and 2011 (a wet year). Significant thermal acclimation of R d to 6-year experimental warming was found. However, A n had a limited ability to acclimate to a warmer climate regime. Thermal acclimation of R d was associated with not only the direct effects of warming, but also the changes in foliar N concentration induced by warming. Conclusions/Significance Warming decreased the temperature sensitivity (Q 10) of the response of R d/A g ratio to T leaf. Our findings may have important implications for improving ecosystem models in simulating carbon cycles and advancing understanding on the interactions between climate change and ecosystem functions. PMID:23457574

Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.

PubMed

Jantz, Samuel M; Barker, Brian; Brooks, Thomas M; Chini, Louise P; Huang, Qiongyu; Moore, Rachel M; Noel, Jacob; Hurtt, George C

2015-08-01

Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by lessening the impact of future land-use activities on biodiversity within hotspots. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Projecting Future Land Use Changes in West Africa Driven by Climate and Socioeconomic Factors: Uncertainties and Implications for Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

2015-12-01

Land use changes constitute an important regional climate change forcing in West Africa, a region of strong land-atmosphere coupling. At the same time, climate change can be an important driver for land use, although its importance relative to the impact of socio-economic factors may vary significant from region to region. This study compares the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa and examines various sources of uncertainty using a land use projection model (LandPro) that accounts for the impact of socioeconomic drivers on the demand side and the impact of climate-induced crop yield changes on the supply side. Future crop yield changes were simulated by a process-based crop model driven with future climate projections from a regional climate model, and future changes of food demand is projected using a model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade. The impact of human decision-making on land use was explicitly considered through multiple "what-if" scenarios to examine the range of uncertainties in projecting future land use. Without agricultural intensification, the climate-induced decrease of crop yield together with increase of food demand are found to cause a significant increase in agricultural land use at the expense of forest and grassland by the mid-century, and the resulting land use land cover changes are found to feed back to the regional climate in a way that exacerbates the negative impact of climate on crop yield. Analysis of results from multiple decision-making scenarios suggests that human adaptation characterized by science-informed decision making to minimize land use could be very effective in many parts of the region.

Assessment of Human Health Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change in Cuba

PubMed Central

Bultó, Paulo Lázaro Ortíz; Rodríguez, Antonio Pérez; Valencia, Alina Rivero; Vega, Nicolás León; Gonzalez, Manuel Díaz; Carrera, Alina Pérez

2006-01-01

In this study we assessed the potential effects of climate variability and change on population health in Cuba. We describe the climate of Cuba as well as the patterns of climate-sensitive diseases of primary concern, particularly dengue fever. Analyses of the associations between climatic anomalies and disease patterns highlight current vulnerability to climate variability. We describe current adaptations, including the application of climate predictions to prevent disease outbreaks. Finally, we present the potential economic costs associated with future impacts due to climate change. The tools used in this study can be useful in the development of appropriate and effective adaptation options to address the increased climate variability associated with climate change. PMID:17185289

Pleistocene Park: the restoration of steppes as a tool to mitigate climate change through albedo effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimov, N.; Loranty, M. M.; Edgar, C.; Kropp, H.; Zimov, S. A.

2017-12-01

In the late Pleistocene, the world largest ecosystem was the mammoth steppe. It stretched from the Iberian Peninsula to Canada and from the New Siberian Islands to China. It was a highly productive steppe ecosystem with numerous predators and herbivores that maintained the dominance of grasslands. With the end of the Pleistocene, the climate warmed and humans entered Siberia and the Americas. The introduction of humans as predators in these regions led to the extinction of most large animals, and the further degradation of the steppes. Mosses, shrubs and larch forest soon replaced grasses and herbs. Pleistocene Park is an experiment conducted in the far north of Siberia; its main goal is to revive the extinct steppe ecosystem in the Arctic. This would increase the richness of the northern ecosystems and, bioproductivity, and through a series of ecological mechanisms help to mitigate climate change. To conduct the experiment, was fenced 2000 hectares of land, and continue the ongoing process of introducing animals that either lived on this territory in the past or that can adapt to the modern northern environment. Through grazing, animals slowly transform the vegetation, replacing mosses, shrubs, and trees with grasses and herbs. Here we present the effects grazing animals have on the albedo of the landscape. Several years of year-round measurement of albedo and incoming and reflected radiation conducted in the grasslands in the park indicate substantially higher albedo compared with most modern ecosystems like larch forest and shrublands. Since grasses are lighter than forest, they reflect a higher portion of energy back to space. Results indicate the most dramatic difference in reflected solar radiation is in April and early May. Grasslands covered with snow reflect most of the sun's energy, while dark stems of forests and shrubs absorb that energy and promote warming. We argue that large-scale promotion of highly productive steppes in the Arctic will substantially change the region's albedo and have a globally noticeable effect on climate.

Integrated approaches to climate-crop modelling: needs and challenges.

PubMed

Betts, Richard A

2005-11-29

This paper discusses the need for a more integrated approach to modelling changes in climate and crops, and some of the challenges posed by this. While changes in atmospheric composition are expected to exert an increasing radiative forcing of climate change leading to further warming of global mean temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns, these are not the only climatic processes which may influence crop production. Changes in the physical characteristics of the land cover may also affect climate; these may arise directly from land use activities and may also result from the large-scale responses of crops to seasonal, interannual and decadal changes in the atmospheric state. Climate models used to drive crop models may, therefore, need to consider changes in the land surface, either as imposed boundary conditions or as feedbacks from an interactive climate-vegetation model. Crops may also respond directly to changes in atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (03) and compounds of sulphur and nitrogen, so crop models should consider these processes as well as climate change. Changes in these, and the responses of the crops, may be intimately linked with meteorological processes so crop and climate models should consider synergies between climate and atmospheric chemistry. Some crop responses may occur at scales too small to significantly influence meteorology, so may not need to be included as feedbacks within climate models. However, the volume of data required to drive the appropriate crop models may be very large, especially if short-time-scale variability is important. Implementation of crop models within climate models would minimize the need to transfer large quantities of data between separate modelling systems. It should also be noted that crop responses to climate change may interact with other impacts of climate change, such as hydrological changes. For example, the availability of water for irrigation may be affected by changes in runoff as a direct consequence of climate change, and may also be affected by climate-related changes in demand for water for other uses. It is, therefore, necessary to consider the interactions between the responses of several impacts sectors to climate change. Overall, there is a strong case for a much closer coupling between models of climate, crops and hydrology, but this in itself poses challenges arising from issues of scale and errors in the models. A strategy is proposed whereby the pursuit of a fully coupled climate-chemistry-crop-hydrology model is paralleled by continued use of separate climate and land surface models but with a focus on consistency between the models.

Reproductive allochrony in seasonally sympatric populations maintained by differential response to photoperiod: Implications for population divergence and response to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fudickar, A.M.; Grieves, T.J.; Atwell, Jonathan W.; Stricker, Craig A.; Ketterson, Ellen D.

2016-01-01

Reproductive allochrony presents a potential barrier to gene flow and is common in seasonally sympatric migratory and sedentary birds. Mechanisms mediating reproductive allochrony can influence population divergence and the capacity of populations to respond to environmental change. We asked whether reproductive allochrony in seasonally sympatric birds results from a difference in response to supplementary or photoperiodic cues and whether the response varies in relation to the distance separating breeding and wintering locations as measured by stable isotopes. We held seasonally sympatric migratory and sedentary male dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis) in a common garden in early spring under simulated natural changes in photoperiod and made measurements of reproductive and migratory physiology. On the same dates and photoperiods, sedentary juncos had higher testosterone (initial and gonadotropin-releasing hormone induced), more developed cloacal protuberances, and larger testes than migrants. In contrast, migratory juncos had larger fat reserves (fuel for migration). We found a negative relationship between testis mass and feather hydrogen isotope ratios, indicating that testis growth was more delayed in migrants making longer migrations. We conclude that reproductive allochrony in seasonally sympatric migratory and sedentary birds can result from a differential response to photoperiodic cues in a common garden, and as a result, gene flow between migrants and residents may be reduced by photoperiodic control of reproductive development. Further, earlier breeding in response to future climate change may currently be constrained by differential response to photoperiodic cues.

Albedo Spatial Variability and Causes on the Western Greenland Ice Sheet Percolation Zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, G.; Osterberg, E. C.; Hawley, R. L.; Koffman, B. G.; Marshall, H. P.; Birkel, S. D.; Dibb, J. E.

2016-12-01

Many recent studies have concluded that Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) mass loss has been accelerating over recent decades, but spatial and temporal variations in GIS mass balance remain poorly understood due to a complex relationship among precipitation and temperature changes, increasing melt and runoff, ice discharge, and surface albedo. Satellite measurements from MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) indicate that albedo has been declining over the past decade, but the cause and extent of GIS albedo change remains poorly constrained by field data. As fresh snow (albedo > 0.85) warms and melts, its albedo decreases due to snow grain growth, promoting solar absorption, higher snowpack temperatures and further melt. However, dark impurities like soot and dust can also significantly reduce snow albedo, even in the dry snow zone. While many regional climate models (e.g. the Regional Atmospheric Climate MOdel - RACMO2) calculate albedo spatial resolutions on the order of 10-30 km, and MODIS averages albedo over 500 m, surface features like sastrugi can affect albedo on much smaller scales. Here we assess the relative importance of grain size and shape vs. impurity concentrations on albedo in the western GIS percolation zone. We collected broadband albedo measurements (300-2500 nm at 3-8 nm resolution) at 35 locations using an ASD FieldSpec4 spectroradiometer to simultaneously quantify radiative fluxes and spectral reflectance. Measurements were collected on 10 x 10 m, 1 x 1 km, 5 x 5 km, and 10 x 10 km grids to determine the spatial variability of albedo as part of the 850-km Greenland Traverse for Accumulation and Climate Studies (GreenTrACS) traverse from Raven/Dye 2 to Summit. Additionally, we collected shallow (0-50 cm) snow pit samples every 5 cm at ASD measurement sites to quantify black carbon and mineral dust concentrations and size distributions using a Single Particle Soot Photometer and Coulter Counter, respectively. Preliminary results indicate larger albedo variability in the infrared than visible and near infrared. We compare our in situ field measurements with co-located albedo data from airplanes, satellites, and climate models, and discuss implications for GIS surface mass balance.

Climate Change Detection and Attribution of Infrared Spectrum Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phojanamongkolkij, Nipa; Parker, Peter A.; Mlynczak, Martin G.

2012-01-01

Climate change occurs when the Earth's energy budget changes due to natural or possibly anthropogenic forcings. These forcings cause the climate system to adjust resulting in a new climate state that is warmer or cooler than the original. The key question is how to detect and attribute climate change. The inference of infrared spectral signatures of climate change has been discussed in the literature for nearly 30 years. Pioneering work in the 1980s noted that distinct spectral signatures would be evident in changes in the infrared radiance emitted by the Earth and its atmosphere, and that these could be observed from orbiting satellites. Since then, a number of other studies have advanced the concepts of spectral signatures of climate change. Today the concept of using spectral signatures to identify and attribute atmospheric composition change is firmly accepted and is the foundation of the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) satellite mission being developed at NASA. In this work, we will present an overview of the current climate change detection concept using climate model calculations as surrogates for climate change. Any future research work improving the methodology to achieve this concept will be valuable to our society.

Framework for Probabilistic Projections of Energy-Relevant Streamflow Indicators under Climate Change Scenarios for the U.S.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wagener, Thorsten; Mann, Michael; Crane, Robert

2014-04-29

This project focuses on uncertainty in streamflow forecasting under climate change conditions. The objective is to develop easy to use methodologies that can be applied across a range of river basins to estimate changes in water availability for realistic projections of climate change. There are three major components to the project: Empirical downscaling of regional climate change projections from a range of Global Climate Models; Developing a methodology to use present day information on the climate controls on the parameterizations in streamflow models to adjust the parameterizations under future climate conditions (a trading-space-for-time approach); and Demonstrating a bottom-up approach tomore » establishing streamflow vulnerabilities to climate change. The results reinforce the need for downscaling of climate data for regional applications, and further demonstrates the challenges of using raw GCM data to make local projections. In addition, it reinforces the need to make projections across a range of global climate models. The project demonstrates the potential for improving streamflow forecasts by using model parameters that are adjusted for future climate conditions, but suggests that even with improved streamflow models and reduced climate uncertainty through the use of downscaled data, there is still large uncertainty is the streamflow projections. The most useful output from the project is the bottom-up vulnerability driven approach to examining possible climate and land use change impacts on streamflow. Here, we demonstrate an inexpensive and easy to apply methodology that uses Classification and Regression Trees (CART) to define the climate and environmental parameters space that can produce vulnerabilities in the system, and then feeds in the downscaled projections to determine the probability top transitioning to a vulnerable sate. Vulnerabilities, in this case, are defined by the end user.« less

Impacts of changes in climate and land use/land cover under IPCC RCP scenarios on streamflow in the Hoeya River Basin, Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Jinsoo; Choi, Jisun; Choi, Chuluong; Park, Soyoung

2013-05-01

This study examined the separate and combined impacts of future changes in climate and land use/land cover (LULC) on streamflow in the Hoeya River Basin, South Korea, using the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). First, a LULC change model was developed using RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 storylines and logistic regression. Three scenarios (climate change only, LULC change only, and climate and LULC change combined) were established, and the streamflow in future periods under these scenarios was simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Each scenario showed distinct seasonal variations in streamflow. Under climate change only, streamflow increased in spring and winter but decreased in summer and autumn, whereas LULC change increased high flow during wet periods but decreased low flow in dry periods. Although the LULC change had less effect than climate change on the changes in streamflow, the effect of LULC change on streamflow was significant. The result for the combined scenario was similar to that of the climate change only scenario, but with larger seasonal changes in streamflow. Although the effects of LULC change were smaller than those caused by climate change, LULC changes may heighten the problems of increased seasonal variability in streamflow caused by climate change. The results obtained in this study provide further insight into the availability of future streamflow and can aid in water resource management planning in the study area. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Weighing the relative potential impacts of climate change and land-use change on an endangered bird.

PubMed

Bancroft, Betsy A; Lawler, Joshua J; Schumaker, Nathan H

2016-07-01

Climate change and land-use change are projected to be the two greatest drivers of biodiversity loss over the coming century. Land-use change has resulted in extensive habitat loss for many species. Likewise, climate change has affected many species resulting in range shifts, changes in phenology, and altered interactions. We used a spatially explicit, individual-based model to explore the effects of land-use change and climate change on a population of the endangered Red-cockaded Woodpecker (RCW; Picoides borealis). We modeled the effects of land-use change using multiple scenarios representing different spatial arrangements of new training areas for troops across Fort Benning. We used projected climate-driven changes in habitat and changes in reproductive output to explore the potential effects of climate change. We summarized potential changes in habitat based on the output of the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, run for multiple climate change scenarios through the year 2100. We projected potential changes in reproduction based on an empirical relationship between spring precipitation and the mean number of successful fledglings produced per nest attempt. As modeled in our study, climate change had virtually no effect on the RCW population. Conversely, simulated effects of land-use change resulted in the loss of up to 28 breeding pairs by 2100. However, the simulated impacts of development depended on where the development occurred and could be completely avoided if the new training areas were placed in poor-quality habitat. Our results demonstrate the flexibility inherent in many systems that allows seemingly incompatible human land uses, such as development, and conservation actions to exist side by side.

Volatile Organic Compounds from Logwood Combustion: Emissions and Transformation under Dark and Photochemical Aging Conditions in a Smog Chamber.

PubMed

Hartikainen, Anni; Yli-Pirilä, Pasi; Tiitta, Petri; Leskinen, Ari; Kortelainen, Miika; Orasche, Jürgen; Schnelle-Kreis, Jürgen; Lehtinen, Kari E J; Zimmermann, Ralf; Jokiniemi, Jorma; Sippula, Olli

2018-04-17

Residential wood combustion (RWC) emits high amounts of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) into ambient air, leading to formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA), and various health and climate effects. In this study, the emission factors of VOCs from a logwood-fired modern masonry heater were measured using a Proton-Transfer-Reactor Time-of-Flight Mass Spectrometer. Next, the VOCs were aged in a 29 m 3 Teflon chamber equipped with UV black lights, where dark and photochemical atmospheric conditions were simulated. The main constituents of the VOC emissions were carbonyls and aromatic compounds, which accounted for 50%-52% and 30%-46% of the detected VOC emission, respectively. Emissions were highly susceptible to different combustion conditions, which caused a 2.4-fold variation in emission factors. The overall VOC concentrations declined considerably during both dark and photochemical aging, with simultaneous increase in particulate organic aerosol mass. Especially furanoic and phenolic compounds decreased, and they are suggested to be the major precursors of RWC-originated SOA in all aging conditions. On the other hand, dark aging produced relatively high amounts of nitrogen-containing organic compounds in both gas and particulate phase, while photochemical aging increased especially the concentrations of certain gaseous carbonyls, particularly acid anhydrides.

Projected wetland densities under climate change: Habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sofaer, Helen R.; Skagen, Susan K.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Rashford, Benjamin S.; Reese, Gordon C.; Hoeting, Jennifer A.; Wood, Andrew W.; Noon, Barry R.

2016-01-01

Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species’ vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change.

Climate change helplessness and the (de)moralization of individual energy behavior.

PubMed

Salomon, Erika; Preston, Jesse L; Tannenbaum, Melanie B

2017-03-01

Although most people understand the threat of climate change, they do little to modify their own energy conservation behavior. One reason for this gap between belief and behavior may be that individual actions seem unimpactful and therefore are not morally relevant. This research investigates how climate change helplessness-belief that one's actions cannot affect climate change-can undermine the moralization of climate change and personal energy conservation. In Study 1, climate change efficacy predicted both moralization of energy use and energy conservation intentions beyond individual belief in climate change. In Studies 2 and 3, participants read information about climate change that varied in efficacy message, that is, whether individual actions (e.g., using less water, turning down heat) make a difference in the environment. Participants who read that their behavior made no meaningful impact reported weaker moralization and intentions (Study 2), and reported more energy consumption 1 week later (Study 3). Moreover, effects on intentions and actions were mediated by changes in moralization. We discuss ways to improve climate change messages to foster environmental efficacy and moralization of personal energy use. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

RADARSAT-2 Polarimetry for Lake Ice Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Feng; Kang, Kyung-Kuk; Duguay, Claude

2016-04-01

Changes in the ice regime of lakes can be employed to assess long-term climate trends and variability in high latitude regions. Lake ice cover observations are not only useful for climate monitoring, but also for improving ice and weather forecasts using numerical prediction models. In recent years, satellite remote sensing has assumed a greater role in observing lake ice cover for both purposes. Radar remote sensing has become an essential tool for mapping lake ice at high latitudes where cloud cover and polar darkness severely limits ice observations from optical systems. In Canada, there is an emerging interest by government agencies to evaluate the potential of fully polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data from RADARSAT-2 (C-band) for lake ice monitoring. In this study, we processed and analyzed the polarization states and scattering mechanisms of fully polarimetric RADARSAT-2 data obtained over Great Bear Lake, Canada, to identify open water and different ice types during the freeze-up and break-up periods. Polarimetric decompositions were employed to separate polarimetric measurements into basic scattering mechanisms. Entropy, anisotropy, and alpha angle were derived to characterize the scattering heterogeneity and mechanisms. Ice classes were then determined based on entropy and alpha angle using the unsupervised Wishart classifier and results evaluated against Landsat 8 imagery. Preliminary results suggest that the RADARSAT-2 polarimetric data offer a strong capability for identifying open water and different lake ice types.

pH and rate of ‘dark’ events in toad retinal rods: test of a hypothesis on the molecular origin of photoreceptor noise

PubMed Central

Firsov, Mikhail L; Donner, Kristian; Govardovskii, Victor I

2002-01-01

Thermal activation of the visual pigment constitutes a fundamental constraint on visual sensitivity. Its electrical correlate in the membrane current of dark-adapted rods are randomly occurring discrete ‘dark events’ indistinguishable from responses to single photons. It has been proposed that thermal activation occurs in a small subpopulation of rhodopsin molecules where the Schiff base linking the chromophore to the protein part is unprotonated. On this hypothesis, rates of thermal activation should increase strongly with rising pH. The hypothesis has been tested by measuring the effect of pH changes on the frequency of discrete dark events in red rods of the common toad Bufo bufo. Dark noise was recorded from isolated rods using the suction pipette technique. Changes in cytoplasmic pH upon manipulations of extracellular pH were quantified by measuring, using fast single-cell microspectrophotometry, the pH-dependent metarhodopsin I-metarhodopsin II equilibrium and subsequent metarhodopsin III formation. These measurements show that, in the conditions of the electrophysiological experiments, changing perfusion pH from 6.5 to 9.3 resulted in a cytoplasmic pH shift from 7.6 to 8.5 that was readily sensed by the rhodopsin. This shift, which implies an 8-fold decrease in cytoplasmic [H+], did not increase the rate of dark events. The results contradict the hypothesis that thermal pigment activation depends on prior deprotonation of the Schiff base. PMID:11897853

The effects of land use change and precipitation change on direct runoff in Wei River watershed, China.

PubMed

Dong, Leihua; Xiong, Lihua; Lall, Upmanu; Wang, Jiwu

2015-01-01

The principles and degrees to which land use change and climate change affect direct runoff generation are distinctive. In this paper, based on the MODIS data of land use in 1992 and 2003, the impacts of land use and climate change are explored using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method under two defined scenarios. In the first scenario, the precipitation is assumed to be constant, and thus the consequence of land use change could be evaluated. In the second scenario, the condition of land use is assumed to be constant, so the influence only induced by climate change could be assessed. Combining the conclusions of two scenarios, the effects of land use and climate change on direct runoff volume can be separated. At last, it is concluded: for the study basin, the land use types which have the greatest effect on direct runoff generation are agricultural land and water body. For the big sub basins, the effect of land use change is generally larger than that of climate change; for middle and small sub basins, most of them suffer more from land use change than from climate change.

Climate Trends and Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change in Zambia.

PubMed

Mulenga, Brian P; Wineman, Ayala; Sitko, Nicholas J

2017-02-01

A number of studies use meteorological records to analyze climate trends and assess the impact of climate change on agricultural yields. While these provide quantitative evidence on climate trends and the likely effects thereof, they incorporate limited qualitative analysis of farmers' perceptions of climate change and/or variability. The present study builds on the quantitative methods used elsewhere to analyze climate trends, and in addition compares local narratives of climate change with evidence found in meteorological records in Zambia. Farmers offer remarkably consistent reports of a rainy season that is growing shorter and less predictable. For some climate parameters-notably, rising average temperature-there is a clear overlap between farmers' observations and patterns found in the meteorological records. However, the data do not support the perception that the rainy season used to begin earlier, and we generally do not detect a reported increase in the frequency of dry spells. Several explanations for these discrepancies are offered. Further, we provide policy recommendations to help farmers adapt to climate change/variability, as well as suggestions to shape future climate change policies, programs, and research in developing countries.

Influences of Regional Climate Change on Air Quality Across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations. Chapter 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nolte, Christopher; Otte, Tanya; Pinder, Robert; Bowden, J.; Herwehe, J.; Faluvegi, Gregory; Shindell, Drew

2013-01-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding, mitigating, and adapting to the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the global climate models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture regional-scale changes in temperatures and precipitation. We use a regional climate model (RCM) to dynamically downscale the GCM's large-scale signal to investigate the changes in regional and local extremes of temperature and precipitation that may result from a changing climate. In this paper, we show preliminary results from downscaling the NASA/GISS ModelE IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 scenario. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices (1995-2005 and 2025-2035) and illustrate potential changes in regional climate for the continental U.S. that are projected by ModelE and WRF under RCP6.0. The regional climate change scenario is further processed using the Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system to explore influences of regional climate change on air quality.

More rapid climate change promotes evolutionary rescue through selection for increased dispersal distance.

PubMed

Boeye, Jeroen; Travis, Justin M J; Stoks, Robby; Bonte, Dries

2013-02-01

Species can either adapt to new conditions induced by climate change or shift their range in an attempt to track optimal environmental conditions. During current range shifts, species are simultaneously confronted with a second major anthropogenic disturbance, landscape fragmentation. Using individual-based models with a shifting climate window, we examine the effect of different rates of climate change on the evolution of dispersal distances through changes in the genetically determined dispersal kernel. Our results demonstrate that the rate of climate change is positively correlated to the evolved dispersal distances although too fast climate change causes the population to crash. When faced with realistic rates of climate change, greater dispersal distances evolve than those required for the population to keep track of the climate, thereby maximizing population size. Importantly, the greater dispersal distances that evolve when climate change is more rapid, induce evolutionary rescue by facilitating the population in crossing large gaps in the landscape. This could ensure population persistence in case of range shifting in fragmented landscapes. Furthermore, we highlight problems in using invasion speed as a proxy for potential range shifting abilities under climate change.

Attitudes to climate change, perceptions of disaster risk, and mitigation and adaptation behavior in Yunlin County, Taiwan.

PubMed

Lee, Yung-Jaan; Tung, Chuan-Ming; Lin, Shih-Chien

2018-02-08

Issues that are associated with climate change have global importance. Most related studies take a national or regional perspective on the impact of climate change. Taiwan is constrained by its geographical conditions, which increase its vulnerability to climate change, especially in its western coastal areas. The county that is most affected by climate change is Yunlin. In 2013-2014, projects that were sponsored by Taiwan's government analyzed the relationship among synthesized vulnerability, ecological footprint (EF) and adaptation to climate change and proposed 15 categories of synthesized vulnerability and EF values. This study further examines the relationship between vulnerability and EF values and examines how residents of four townships-Linnei, Sihu, Mailiao, and Huwei-cope with the effects of climate change. This study investigates whether the residents of the four townships vary in their attitudes to climate change, their perceptions of disaster risk, and their behavioral intentions with respect to coping with climate change. The structural equation model (SEM) is used to examine the relationships among attitudes to climate change, perceptions of disaster risk, and the behavioral intentions of residents in townships with various vulnerabilities to climate change. The results that are obtained using the SEM reveal that climate change mitigation/adaptation behavior is affected by attitudes to climate change and perceptions of disaster risk. However, the effects of attitudes and perceptions on mitigation and adaptation that are mediated by place attachment are not statistically significant.

Investigating Climate Change Issues With Web-Based Geospatial Inquiry Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dempsey, C.; Bodzin, A. M.; Sahagian, D. L.; Anastasio, D. J.; Peffer, T.; Cirucci, L.

2011-12-01

In the Environmental Literacy and Inquiry middle school Climate Change curriculum we focus on essential climate literacy principles with an emphasis on weather and climate, Earth system energy balance, greenhouse gases, paleoclimatology, and how human activities influence climate change (http://www.ei.lehigh.edu/eli/cc/). It incorporates a related set of a framework and design principles to provide guidance for the development of the geospatial technology-integrated Earth and environmental science curriculum materials. Students use virtual globes, Web-based tools including an interactive carbon calculator and geologic timeline, and inquiry-based lab activities to investigate climate change topics. The curriculum includes educative curriculum materials that are designed to promote and support teachers' learning of important climate change content and issues, geospatial pedagogical content knowledge, and geographic spatial thinking. The curriculum includes baseline instructional guidance for teachers and provides implementation and adaptation guidance for teaching with diverse learners including low-level readers, English language learners and students with disabilities. In the curriculum, students use geospatial technology tools including Google Earth with embedded spatial data to investigate global temperature changes, areas affected by climate change, evidence of climate change, and the effects of sea level rise on the existing landscape. We conducted a designed-based research implementation study with urban middle school students. Findings showed that the use of the Climate Change curriculum showed significant improvement in urban middle school students' understanding of climate change concepts.

Ice-cover effects on competitive interactions between two fish species.

PubMed

Helland, Ingeborg P; Finstad, Anders G; Forseth, Torbjørn; Hesthagen, Trygve; Ugedal, Ola

2011-05-01

1. Variations in the strength of ecological interactions between seasons have received little attention, despite an increased focus on climate alterations on ecosystems. Particularly, the winter situation is often neglected when studying competitive interactions. In northern temperate freshwaters, winter implies low temperatures and reduced food availability, but also strong reduction in ambient light because of ice and snow cover. Here, we study how brown trout [Salmo trutta (L.)] respond to variations in ice-cover duration and competition with Arctic charr [Salvelinus alpinus (L.)], by linking laboratory-derived physiological performance and field data on variation in abundance among and within natural brown trout populations. 2. Both Arctic charr and brown trout reduced resting metabolic rate under simulated ice-cover (darkness) in the laboratory, compared to no ice (6-h daylight). However, in contrast to brown trout, Arctic charr was able to obtain positive growth rate in darkness and had higher food intake in tank experiments than brown trout. Arctic charr also performed better (lower energy loss) under simulated ice-cover in a semi-natural environment with natural food supply. 3. When comparing brown trout biomass across 190 Norwegian lakes along a climate gradient, longer ice-covered duration decreased the biomass only in lakes where brown trout lived together with Arctic charr. We were not able to detect any effect of ice-cover on brown trout biomass in lakes where brown trout was the only fish species. 4. Similarly, a 25-year time series from a lake with both brown trout and Arctic charr showed that brown trout population growth rate depended on the interaction between ice breakup date and Arctic charr abundance. High charr abundance was correlated with low trout population growth rate only in combination with long winters. 5. In conclusion, the two species differed in performance under ice, and the observed outcome of competition in natural populations was strongly dependent on duration of the ice-covered period. Our study shows that changes in ice phenology may alter species interactions in Northern aquatic systems. Increased knowledge of how adaptations to winter conditions differ among coexisting species is therefore vital for our understanding of ecological impacts of climate change. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Biogeography of time partitioning in mammals.

PubMed

Bennie, Jonathan J; Duffy, James P; Inger, Richard; Gaston, Kevin J

2014-09-23

Many animals regulate their activity over a 24-h sleep-wake cycle, concentrating their peak periods of activity to coincide with the hours of daylight, darkness, or twilight, or using different periods of light and darkness in more complex ways. These behavioral differences, which are in themselves functional traits, are associated with suites of physiological and morphological adaptations with implications for the ecological roles of species. The biogeography of diel time partitioning is, however, poorly understood. Here, we document basic biogeographic patterns of time partitioning by mammals and ecologically relevant large-scale patterns of natural variation in "illuminated activity time" constrained by temperature, and we determine how well the first of these are predicted by the second. Although the majority of mammals are nocturnal, the distributions of diurnal and crepuscular species richness are strongly associated with the availability of biologically useful daylight and twilight, respectively. Cathemerality is associated with relatively long hours of daylight and twilight in the northern Holarctic region, whereas the proportion of nocturnal species is highest in arid regions and lowest at extreme high altitudes. Although thermal constraints on activity have been identified as key to the distributions of organisms, constraints due to functional adaptation to the light environment are less well studied. Global patterns in diversity are constrained by the availability of the temporal niche; disruption of these constraints by the spread of artificial lighting and anthropogenic climate change, and the potential effects on time partitioning, are likely to be critical influences on species' future distributions.

Aerosol as a player in the Arctic Amplification - an aerosol-climate model evaluation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schacht, Jacob; Heinold, Bernd; Tegen, Ina

2017-04-01

Climate warming is much more pronounced in the Arctic than in any other region on Earth - a phenomenon referred to as the "Arctic Amplification". This is closely related to a variety of specific feedback mechanisms, which relative importance, however, is not yet sufficiently understood. The local changes in the Arctic climate are far-reaching and affect for example the general atmospheric circulation and global energy transport. Aerosol particles from long-range transport and local sources play an important role in the Arctic system by modulating the energy balance (directly by interaction with solar and thermal infrared radiation and indirectly by changing cloud properties and atmospheric dynamics). The main source regions of anthropogenic aerosol are Europe and East Asia, but also local shipping and oil/gas extraction may contribute significantly. In addition, important sources are widespread, mainly natural boreal forest fires. Most of the European aerosol is transported through the lower atmospheric layers in wintertime. The Asian aerosol is transported through higher altitudes. Because of the usually pristine conditions in the Arctic even small absolute changes in aerosol concentration can have large impacts on the Arctic climate. Using global and Arctic-focused model simulations, we aim at investigating the sources and transport pathways of natural and anthropogenic aerosol to the Arctic region, as well as their impact on radiation and clouds. Here, we present first results from an aerosol-climate model evaluation study. Simulations were performed with the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2, using three different state-of-the-art emission inventories (ACCMIP, ACCMIP + GFAS emissions for wildfires and ECLIPSE). The runs were performed in nudged mode at T63 horizontal resolution (approximately 1.8°) with 47 vertical levels for the 10-year period 2006-2015. Black carbon (BC) and sulphate (SO4) are of particular interest. BC is highly absorbing in the solar spectrum, an effect that is enhanced by the contrast between the bright snow/ice surfaces and the dark BC. When deposited on snow and ice, BC also accelerates melting and lowers the surface albedo. SO4 however is more scattering and, therefore, cooling. The model results are compared among each other and evaluated against ground-based in-situ and remote sensing, as well as active satellite observations. The following questions are addressed in the evaluation: 1) Are the sources and transport pathways of aerosol to the Arctic region captured? 2) Is the annual cycle of aerosol conditions reproduced? 3) What are uncertainties related to the emission database? After thorough evaluation, the model results will provide a state-of-the-art estimate of the aerosol budget and the effective radiative forcing by anthropogenic aerosols in the Arctic region.

Responding to the Consequences of Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hildebrand, Peter H.

2011-01-01

The talk addresses the scientific consensus concerning climate change, and outlines the many paths that are open to mitigate climate change and its effects on human activities. Diverse aspects of the changing water cycle on Earth are used to illustrate the reality climate change. These include melting snowpack, glaciers, and sea ice; changes in runoff; rising sea level; moving ecosystems, an more. Human forcing of climate change is then explained, including: greenhouse gasses, atmospheric aerosols, and changes in land use. Natural forcing effects are briefly discussed, including volcanoes and changes in the solar cycle. Returning to Earth's water cycle, the effects of climate-induced changes in water resources is presented. Examples include wildfires, floods and droughts, changes in the production and availability of food, and human social reactions to these effects. The lk then passes to a discussion of common human reactions to these forecasts of climate change effects, with a summary of recent research on the subject, plus several recent historical examples of large-scale changes in human behavior that affect the climate and ecosystems. Finally, in the face for needed action on climate, the many options for mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects are presented, with examples of the ability to take affordable, and profitable action at most all levels, from the local, through national.

Possible climate warming effects on vegetation, forests, biotic (insect, pathogene) disturbances and agriculture in Central Siberia for 1960- 2050

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Soja, A. J.; Lysanova, G. I.; Baranchikov, Y. N.; Kuzmina, N. A.

2012-04-01

Regional Siberian studies have already registered climate warming over the last half a century (1960-2010). Our analysis showed that winters are already 2-3°C warmer in the north and 1-2°C warmer in the south by 2010. Summer temperatures increased by 1°C in the north and by 1-2°C in the south. Change in precipitation is more complicated, increasing on average 10% in middle latitudes and decreasing 10-20% in the south, promoting local drying in already dry landscapes. Our goal was to summarize results of research we have done for the last decade in the context of climate warming and its consequences for biosystems in Central Siberia. We modeled climate change effects on vegetation shifts, on forest composition and agriculture change, on the insect Siberian moth (Dendrolimus suprans sibiricus Tschetv) and pathogene (Lophodermium pinastri Chev) ranges in Central Siberia for a century (1960-2050) based on historical climate data and GCM-predicted data. Principal results are: In the warmer and drier climate projected by these scenarios, Siberian forests are predicted to decrease and shift northwards and forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems are predicted to dominate over 50% of central Siberia due to the dryer climate by 2080. Permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Over eastern Siberia, larch (Larix dahurica) taiga is predicted to continue to be the dominant zonobiome because of its ability to withstand continuous permafrost. The model also predicts new temperate broadleaf forest and forest-steppe habitats; At least half of central Siberia is predicted to be climatically suitable for agriculture at the end of the century although potential croplands would be limited by the availability of suitable soils agriculture in central Siberia would likely benefit from climate warming Crop production may twofold increase as climate warms during the century; traditional crops (grain, potato, maize for silage) could be gradually shifted as far as 500 km from the south northwards (about 50-70 km per decade) and new crops (maize for grain, apricot, grape, gourds) may be introduced in the very south depending on winter conditions and would necessitate irrigation in a drier 2080 climate; The environment for the Siberian moth may considerably shrink in the future leaving suitable habitats only in highlands of mountains and the north of Eurasia. The moth habitats also depend on migration rates of tree species Larix spp., Abies sibirica, and Pinus sibirica being main food resources. Siberian moth may not be considered as a threat in climates with mild winter because larvae require continuos continental type winters. Needle-cast of Pinus sylvestris caused by Lophodermium pinastri Chev. was found to be strongly related to precipation including snow depth. In a predicted dryer climate, it would shift northwards followed sufficient water.

Reconstructing the leading mode of multi-decadal North Atlantic variability over the last two millenia using functional paleoclimate networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franke, Jasper G.; Werner, Johannes; Donner, Reik V.

2017-04-01

The increasing availability of high-resolution North Atlantic paleoclimate proxies allows to not only study local climate variations in time, but also temporal changes in spatial variability patterns across the entire region possibly controlled by large-scale coherent variability modes such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In this study, we use functional paleoclimate network analysis [1,2] to investigate changes in the statistical similarity patterns among an ensemble of high-resolution terrestrial paleoclimate records from Northern Europe included in the Arctic 2k data base. Specifically, we construct complex networks capturing the mutual statistical similarity of inter-annual temperature variability recorded in tree ring records, ice cores and lake sediments for multidecadal time windows covering the last two millenia. The observed patterns of co-variability are ultimately connected to the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and most prominently to multidecadal variations of the NAO. Based on the inferred networks, we study the dynamical similarity between regional clusters of archives defined according to present-day inter-annual temperature variations across the study region. This analysis identifies those time-dependent inter-regional linkages that are most informative about the leading-order North Atlantic climate variability according to a recent NAO reconstruction for the last millenium [3]. Based on these linkages, we extend the existing reconstruction to obtain qualitative information on multidecadal to centennial scale North Atlantic climate variability over the last two millenia. In general, we find a tendency towards a dominating positive NAO phase interrupted by pronounced and extended intervals of negative NAO. Relatively rapid transitions between both types of behaviour are present during distinct periods including the Little Ice Age, the Medieval Climate Anomaly and for the Dark Ages Little Ice Age. [1] K. Rehfeld, N. Marwan, S.F.M. Breitenbach, J. Kurths: Late Holocene Asian summer monsoon dynamics from small but complex networks of paleoclimate data. Climate Dynamics 41, 3-19, 2013 [2] J.L. Oster, N.P. Kelley: Tracking regional and global teleconnections recorded by western North American speleothem records. Quaternary Science Reviews 149, 18-33, 2016 [3] P. Ortega, F. Lehner, D. Swingedouw, V. Masson-Delmotte, C.C. Raible, M. Casado, P. Yiou: A model-tested North Atlantic Oscillation reconstruction for the past millenium. Nature 523, 71-74, 2015

Holocene climate aridification trend and human impact interrupted by millennial- and centennial-scale climate fluctuations from a new sedimentary record from Padul (Sierra Nevada, southern Iberian Peninsula)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos-Román, María J.; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Camuera, Jon; García-Alix, Antonio; Anderson, R. Scott; Jiménez-Espejo, Francisco J.; Carrión, José S.

2018-01-01

Holocene centennial-scale paleoenvironmental variability has been described in a multiproxy analysis (i.e., lithology, geochemistry, macrofossil, and microfossil analyses) of a paleoecological record from the Padul Basin in Sierra Nevada, southern Iberian Peninsula. This sequence covers a relevant time interval hitherto unreported in the studies of the Padul sedimentary sequence. The ˜ 4700-year record has preserved proxies of climate variability, with vegetation, lake levels, and sedimentological change during the Holocene in one of the most unique and southernmost wetlands in Europe. The progressive middle and late Holocene trend toward arid conditions identified by numerous authors in the western Mediterranean region, mostly related to a decrease in summer insolation, is also documented in this record; here it is also superimposed by centennial-scale variability in humidity. In turn, this record shows centennial-scale climate oscillations in temperature that correlate with well-known climatic events during the late Holocene in the western Mediterranean region, synchronous with variability in solar and atmospheric dynamics. The multiproxy Padul record first shows a transition from a relatively humid middle Holocene in the western Mediterranean region to more aridity from ˜ 4700 to ˜ 2800 cal yr BP. A relatively warm and humid period occurred between ˜ 2600 and ˜ 1600 cal yr BP, coinciding with persistent negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions and the historic Iberian-Roman Humid Period. Enhanced arid conditions, co-occurring with overall positive NAO conditions and increasing solar activity, are observed between ˜ 1550 and ˜ 450 cal yr BP (˜ 400 to ˜ 1400 CE) and colder and warmer conditions occurred during the Dark Ages and Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), respectively. Slightly wetter conditions took place during the end of the MCA and the first part of the Little Ice Age, which could be related to a change towards negative NAO conditions and minima in solar activity. Time series analysis performed from local (Botryococcus and total organic carbon) and regional (Mediterranean forest) signals helped us determining the relationship between southern Iberian climate evolution, atmospheric and oceanic dynamics, and solar activity. Our multiproxy record shows little evidence of human impact in the area until ˜ 1550 cal yr BP, when evidence of agriculture and livestock grazing occurs. Therefore, climate is the main forcing mechanism controlling environmental change in the area until relatively recently.

Developing a Taxonomy of Dark Triad Triggers at Work – A Grounded Theory Study Protocol

PubMed Central

Nübold, Annika; Bader, Josef; Bozin, Nera; Depala, Romil; Eidast, Helena; Johannessen, Elisabeth A.; Prinz, Gerhard

2017-01-01

In past years, research and corporate scandals have evidenced the destructive effects of the dark triad at work, consisting of narcissism (extreme self-centeredness), psychopathy (lack of empathy and remorse) and Machiavellianism (a sense of duplicity and manipulativeness). The dark triad dimensions have typically been conceptualized as stable personality traits, ignoring the accumulating evidence that momentary personality expressions – personality states – may change due to the characteristics of the situation. The present research protocol describes a qualitative study that aims to identify triggers of dark triad states at work by following a grounded theory approach using semi-structured interviews. By building a comprehensive categorization of dark triad triggers at work scholars may study these triggers in a parsimonious and structured way and organizations may derive more effective interventions to buffer or prevent the detrimental effects of dark personality at work. PMID:28326048

Large extents of intensive land use limit community reorganization during climate warming.

PubMed

Oliver, Tom H; Gillings, Simon; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Brereton, Tom; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Duffield, Simon J; Morecroft, Michael D; Roy, David B

2017-06-01

Climate change is increasingly altering the composition of ecological communities, in combination with other environmental pressures such as high-intensity land use. Pressures are expected to interact in their effects, but the extent to which intensive human land use constrains community responses to climate change is currently unclear. A generic indicator of climate change impact, the community temperature index (CTI), has previously been used to suggest that both bird and butterflies are successfully 'tracking' climate change. Here, we assessed community changes at over 600 English bird or butterfly monitoring sites over three decades and tested how the surrounding land has influenced these changes. We partitioned community changes into warm- and cold-associated assemblages and found that English bird communities have not reorganized successfully in response to climate change. CTI increases for birds are primarily attributable to the loss of cold-associated species, whilst for butterflies, warm-associated species have tended to increase. Importantly, the area of intensively managed land use around monitoring sites appears to influence these community changes, with large extents of intensively managed land limiting 'adaptive' community reorganization in response to climate change. Specifically, high-intensity land use appears to exacerbate declines in cold-adapted bird and butterfly species, and prevent increases in warm-associated birds. This has broad implications for managing landscapes to promote climate change adaptation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sensitivity of river fishes to climate change: The role of hydrological stressors on habitat range shifts.

PubMed

Segurado, Pedro; Branco, Paulo; Jauch, Eduardo; Neves, Ramiro; Ferreira, M Teresa

2016-08-15

Climate change will predictably change hydrological patterns and processes at the catchment scale, with impacts on habitat conditions for fish. The main goal of this study is to assess how shifts in fish habitat favourability under climate change scenarios are affected by hydrological stressors. The interplay between climate and hydrological stressors has important implications in river management under climate change because management actions to control hydrological parameters are more feasible than controlling climate. This study was carried out in the Tamega catchment of the Douro basin. A set of hydrological stressor variables were generated through a process-based modelling based on current climate data (2008-2014) and also considering a high-end future climate change scenario. The resulting parameters, along with climatic and site-descriptor variables were used as explanatory variables in empirical habitat models for nine fish species using boosted regression trees. Models were calibrated for the whole Douro basin using 254 fish sampling sites and predictions under future climate change scenarios were made for the Tamega catchment. Results show that models using climatic variables but not hydrological stressors produce more stringent predictions of future favourability, predicting more distribution contractions or stronger range shifts. The use of hydrological stressors strongly influences projections of habitat favourability shifts; the integration of these stressors in the models thinned shifts in range due to climate change. Hydrological stressors were retained in the models for most species and had a high importance, demonstrating that it is important to integrate hydrology in studies of impacts of climate change on freshwater fishes. This is a relevant result because it means that management actions to control hydrological parameters in rivers will have an impact on the effects of climate change and may potentially be helpful to mitigate its negative effects on fish populations and assemblages. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Cardoso Pereira, José Miguel; Hurtt, George; Asrar, Ghassem

2017-12-01

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change - Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 - projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4-28 times more forest in 2080-2100 than during 1990-2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9-5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

Twomey Effect in Subtropical Stratocumulus Clouds from UV Depolarization LIDAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Graaf, Martin; Brown, Jessica; Donovan, David

2018-04-01

Marine stratocumulus clouds are important climate regulators, reflecting sunlight over a dark ocean background. A UV-depolarization lidar on Ascension, a small remote island in the south Atlantic, measured cloud droplet sizes and number concentration using an inversion method based on Monte Carlo (MC) modelling of multiple scattering in idealised semiadiabatic clouds. The droplet size and number concentration weremodulated due to smoke from the African continent, measured by the same instrument.

Differential expression of melanopsin mRNA and protein in Brown Norwegian rats.

PubMed

Hannibal, Jens; Georg, Birgitte; Fahrenkrug, Jan

2013-01-01

Melanopsin is expressed in a subpopulation of retinal ganglion cells rendering these cells intrinsically photosensitive (ipRGCs). The ipRGCs are the primary RGCs mediating light entrainment of the circadian clock and control of the pupillary light reflex, light regulated melatonin secretion and negative masking behaviour. Previous studies have demonstrated that melanopsin expression in albino rats is regulated by light and darkness. The present study was undertaken to study the influence of light and darkness during the circadian day and after extended periods of constant light and darkness on melanopsin expression in the pigmented retina of the Brown Norwegian rat (Rattus norvegicus). The diurnal and circadian expressions were examined in retinal extracts from rats euthanized every 4 h during a 24 h light/dark (LD) and a 24 h dark cycle (DD) using quantitative real-time PCR and Western blotting. To study whether light regulates melanopsin expression, rats were sacrificed after being placed in either constant light (LL) or darkness for 3 or 21 d. Flat mount retinas from animals kept during either LL or DD were also examined by immunohistochemistry. Melanopsin mRNA expression displayed a significant rhythmic change during the LD cycle with peak expression around dusk and nadir at dawn. Melanopsin protein also changed over the LD cycle with peak expression at the end of the night and nadir at dusk. Rhythmic expression of melanopsin mRNA but not melanopsin protein was found in constant darkness. After 3 or 21 d in either LL or DD melanopsin mRNA expression was unaltered. Melanopsin protein was at the same high level after 3 and 21 d in DD, whereas a significant decrease was found after prolonging the light period for 3 or 21 d. The change in melanopsin protein was primarily due to change in immunoreactivity in the dendritic processes. In conclusion we found that light and darkness are important for regulation of melanopsin protein expression whereas input from a retinal networks regulates melanopsin mRNA expression. It is likely to speculate that altered level of melanopsin is one way in which the retina adapts to environmental light and darkness conditions ensuring optimal light sensitivity for the transmission to the brain. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of land-use and climate on Holocene vegetation composition in northern Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marquer, Laurent; Gaillard, Marie-José; Sugita, Shinya; Poska, Anneli; Trondman, Anna-Kari; Mazier, Florence; Nielsen, Anne Birgitte; Fyfe, Ralph; Jönsson, Anna Maria

2016-04-01

Prior to the advent of agriculture, broad-scale vegetation patterns in Europe were controlled primarily by climate. Early agriculture can be detected in palaeovegetation records, but the relative extent to which past regional vegetation was climatically or anthropogenically-forced is of current scientific interest. Using comparisons of transformed pollen data, climate-model data, dynamic vegetation model simulations and anthropogenic land-cover change data, this study aims to estimate the relative impacts of human activities and climate on the Holocene vegetation composition of northern Europe at a subcontinental scale. The REVEALS model was used for pollen-based quantitative reconstruction of vegetation (RV). Climate variables from ECHAM and the extent of human deforestation from KK10 were used as explanatory variables to evaluate their respective impacts on RV. Indices of vegetation-composition changes based on RV and climate-induced vegetation simulated by the LPJ-GUESS model (LPJG) were used to assess the relative importance of climate and anthropogenic impacts. The results show that climate is the major predictor of Holocene vegetation changes until 5000 years ago. The similarity in rate of change and turnover between RV and LPJG decreases after this time. Changes in RV explained by climate and KK10 vary for the last 2000 years; the similarity in rate of change, turnover, and evenness between RV and LPJG decreases to the present. The main conclusions provide important insights on Neolithic forest clearances that affected regional vegetation from 6700 years ago, although climate (temperature and precipitation) still was a major driver of vegetation change (explains 37% of the variation) at the subcontinental scale. Land use became more important around 5000-4000 years ago, while the influence of climate decreased (explains 28% of the variation). Land-use affects all indices of vegetation compositional change during the last 2000 years; the influence of climate on vegetation, although reduced, remains at 16% until modern time while land-use explains 7%, which underlines that North-European vegetation is still climatically sensitive and, therefore, responds strongly to ongoing climate change.

The species velocity of trees in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrison, B. D.; Napier, J.; de Lafontaine, G.; Heath, K.; Li, B.; Hu, F.; Greenberg, J. A.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change has motivated interest in the paleo record to enhance our knowledge about past vegetation responses to climate change and help understand potential responses in the future. Additionally, polar regions currently experience the most rapid rates of climate change globally, prompting concern over changes in the ecological composition of high latitude ecosystems. Recent analyses have attempted to construct methods to estimate a species' ability to track climate change by computing climate velocity; a measure of the rate of climate displacement across a landscape which may indicate the speed an organism must migrate to keep pace with climate change. However, a challenge to using climate velocity in understanding range shifts is a lack of species-specificity in the velocity calculations: climate velocity does not actually use any species data in its analysis. To solve the shortcomings of climate velocity in estimating species displacement rates, we computed the "species velocity" of white spruce, green and grey alder populations across the state of Alaska from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to today. Species velocity represents the rate and direction a species is required to migrate to keep pace with a changing climate following the LGM. We used a species distribution model to determine past and present white spruce and alder distributions using statistically downscaled climate data at 60m. Species velocity was then derived from the change in species distribution per year by the change in distribution over Alaska (km/yr). High velocities indicate locations where the species environmental envelope is changing drastically and must disperse rapidly to survive climate change. As a result, high velocity regions are more vulnerable to distribution shifts and higher risk of local extinction. Conversely, low species velocities indicate locations where the local climate envelope is shifting relatively slowly, reducing the stress to disperse quickly with minimal loss of optimal habitat. Our results suggest that these species do not exclusively redistribute to higher latitudes and elevations in a warming climate, suggesting that 1) microtopography plays a significant role in the distribution of a species and 2) many species may not be tracking temperature change, but other climate restrictions.

Modeling climate change impacts on groundwater resources using transient stochastic climatic scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goderniaux, Pascal; BrouyèRe, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley J.; Orban, Philippe; Dassargues, Alain

2011-12-01

Several studies have highlighted the potential negative impact of climate change on groundwater reserves, but additional work is required to help water managers plan for future changes. In particular, existing studies provide projections for a stationary climate representative of the end of the century, although information is demanded for the near future. Such time-slice experiments fail to account for the transient nature of climatic changes over the century. Moreover, uncertainty linked to natural climate variability is not explicitly considered in previous studies. In this study we substantially improve upon the state-of-the-art by using a sophisticated transient weather generator in combination with an integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model (Geer basin, Belgium) developed with the finite element modeling software "HydroGeoSphere." This version of the weather generator enables the stochastic generation of large numbers of equiprobable climatic time series, representing transient climate change, and used to assess impacts in a probabilistic way. For the Geer basin, 30 equiprobable climate change scenarios from 2010 to 2085 have been generated for each of six different regional climate models (RCMs). Results show that although the 95% confidence intervals calculated around projected groundwater levels remain large, the climate change signal becomes stronger than that of natural climate variability by 2085. Additionally, the weather generator's ability to simulate transient climate change enabled the assessment of the likely time scale and associated uncertainty of a specific impact, providing managers with additional information when planning further investment. This methodology constitutes a real improvement in the field of groundwater projections under climate change conditions.

Forest environmental investments and implications for climate change mitigation.

Treesearch

Ralph J. Alig; Lucas S. Bair

2006-01-01

Forest environmental conditions are affected by climate change, but investments in forest environmental quality can be used as part of the climate change mitigation strategy. A key question involving the potential use of forests to store more carbon as part of climate change mitigation is the impact of forest investments on the timing and quantity of forest volumes...

Development of Site Specific Climate Scenarios for River and Sediment discharge Using Macrophysical Climate Models: An Example from Puerto Rico

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change and land use change are the primary drivers of changes in ecosystem services globally. Global climate models suggest that in the future Puerto Rico and other small islands in the Caribbean will experience changes in rainfall seasonality. It is anticipated that wa...

Environmental and economic risks assessment under climate changes for three land uses scenarios analysis across Teshio watershed, northernmost of Japan.

PubMed

Fan, Min; Shibata, Hideaki; Chen, Li

2017-12-01

Land use and climate changes affect on the economy and environment with different patterns and magnitudes in the watershed. This study used risk analysis model stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) to evaluate economic and environmental risks caused by four climate change scenarios (baseline, small-, mid- and large changes) and three land uses (paddy dominated, paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated for agriculture) in Teshio watershed in northern Hokkaido, Japan. Under the baseline climate conditions, the lower ranking of economic income of crop yield and higher ranking of pollutant load from agricultural land were both predicted in paddy dominated for agriculture, suggesting that the paddy dominated system caused higher risks of economic and environmental variables compared to other two land uses. Increase of temperature and precipitation increased crop yields under all three climate changes which resulted in increase of the ranking of economic income, indicating that those climate changes could reduce economic risk. The increased temperature and precipitation also accelerated mineralization of organic nutrient and nutrient leaching to river course of Teshio which resulted in increase of the ranking of pollutant load, suggesting that those climate changes could lead to more environmental risk. The rankings of economic income in mid- and large changes of climate were lower than that in small change of climate under paddy-farmland mixture and farmland dominated systems due to decrease of crop yield, suggesting that climate change led to more economic risk. In summary, the results suggested that increase in temperature and precipitation caused higher risks of both economic and environmental perspectives, and the impacts was higher than those of land use changes in the studied watershed. Those findings would help producers and watershed managers to measure the tradeoffs between environmental protection and agricultural economic development for making decision under land use and climate changes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fight Swack, Adapt to Climate Change or How to Use Humor to Engage the Public in Climate Issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, R.; Elinich, K.; Johnson, R.; Fink, J.; Crawford, J.

2014-12-01

We are carefully considering how a humor-based campaign can help us communicate important climate change messages. Using pilot campaign strategies, we have engaged local residents in focus groups and interviews to understand how effective the approach can be. Growing educational research suggests learning about climate change can lead to feelings of depression, fear and inaction. Climate change seems too big of a task to take on. But with sweaty back (or "swack" as it's known in some circles), there's a public enemy that can be defeated. As only one piece of an innovative model for informal climate change education, the Climate and Urban Systems Partnership repositions the war on climate change by declaring a war on swack instead. This way, we can talk about climate change in a way it has never been talked about before that will certainly get people's attention. It also answers the common question of, "Yeah, but how does it affect me?" We're educating about responses to climate change because heat waves, floods, and excessive back sweat all kinda suck a lot.

Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

2008-01-01

Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

Leveraging the Novel Climates of Arboreta to Understand Tree Responses to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ettinger, A.; Wolkovich, E. M.; Joly, S.

2016-12-01

Rising global temperatures are expected to cause large-scale changes to forests, including altered mortality and recruitment rates, and dramatic changes in species composition, but exactly how tree growth will be affected by climate change is uncertain. Studies to date suggest that temperate and boreal tree responses to warming range from growing faster, slower, or at unchanged rates. Here we present an approach and preliminary findings that will improve predictions of tree responses to climate change by studying how tree traits, including phenology (e.g. the timing of leaf-out), wood density, leaf mass area, and height, relate to climate sensitivity (i.e. growth responses to annual changes in climate, Figure 1). We demonstrate how arboreta can be used to understand tree responses to climate change using 500 individuals across 65 tree species growing at the Arnold Arboretum, Boston, Massachusetts. Arboretum provide a unique opportunities for understanding temperate tree responses to climate change: they provide large collections of woody species growing together that enable traits to be studied across diverse species in a phylogenetic context. Furthermore, many species in arboreta are nonnative and have been exposed to "novel" climates that may resemble future conditions in their native distributions. We use a phylogenetic approach to understand how annual growth and climate sensitivity relate to focal traits, and asses what these findings may tell us about tree responses to climate change.

Net returns from segregating dark northern spring wheat by protein concentration during harvest

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In-line, optical sensing has been developed for on-combine measurement and mapping of grain protein concentration (GPC). The objective of this study was to estimate changes in costs and net returns from using this technology for segregation of the dark northern spring (DNS) subclass of hard red whe...

Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

PubMed Central

Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

2016-01-01

Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

Rural perspectives of climate change: a study from Saurastra and Kutch of Western India.

PubMed

Moghariya, Dineshkumar P; Smardon, Richard C

2014-08-01

This research reports on rural people's beliefs and understandings of climate change in the Saurastra/ Kutch region of Western India. Results suggest that although most rural respondents have not heard about the scientific concept of climate change, they have detected changes in the climate. They appear to hold divergent understandings about climate change and have different priorities for causes and solutions. Many respondents appear to base their understandings of climate change upon a mix of ideas drawn from various sources and rely on different kinds of reasoning in relation to both causes of and solutions to climate change to those used by scientists. Environmental conditions were found to influence individuals' understanding of climate change, while demographic factors were not. The results suggest a need to learn more about people's conceptual models and understandings of climate change and a need to include local climate research in communication efforts.

Adaptations to polar life in mammals and birds.

PubMed

Blix, Arnoldus Schytte

2016-04-15

This Review presents a broad overview of adaptations of truly Arctic and Antarctic mammals and birds to the challenges of polar life. The polar environment may be characterized by grisly cold, scarcity of food and darkness in winter, and lush conditions and continuous light in summer. Resident animals cope with these changes by behavioural, physical and physiological means. These include responses aimed at reducing exposure, such as 'balling up', huddling and shelter building; seasonal changes in insulation by fur, plumage and blubber; and circulatory adjustments aimed at preservation of core temperature, to which end the periphery and extremities are cooled to increase insulation. Newborn altricial animals have profound tolerance to hypothermia, but depend on parental care for warmth, whereas precocial mammals are well insulated and respond to cold with non-shivering thermogenesis in brown adipose tissue, and precocial birds shiver to produce heat. Most polar animals prepare themselves for shortness of food during winter by the deposition of large amounts of fat in times of plenty during autumn. These deposits are governed by a sliding set-point for body fatness throughout winter so that they last until the sun reappears in spring. Polar animals are, like most others, primarily active during the light part of the day, but when the sun never sets in summer and darkness prevails during winter, high-latitude animals become intermittently active around the clock, allowing opportunistic feeding at all times. The importance of understanding the needs of the individuals of a species to understand the responses of populations in times of climate change is emphasized. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Using Satellites to Understand Climate and Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fetzer, Eric

2007-01-01

This viewgraph presentation reviews the measurement of climate with the use of satellites. The basic greenhouse effect, Ice-albedo feedback, climate models and observations, aerosol-cloud interactions, and the Antarctic are discussed, along with the human effect on climate change.

Significance of hydrological model choice and land use changes when doing climate change impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bjørnholt Karlsson, Ida; Obel Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Høgh Jensen, Karsten

2014-05-01

Uncertainty in impact studies arises both from Global Climate Models (GCM), emission projections, statistical downscaling, Regional Climate Models (RCM), hydrological models and calibration techniques (Refsgaard et al. 2013). Some of these uncertainties have been evaluated several times in the literature; however few studies have investigated the effect of hydrological model choice on the assessment results (Boorman & Sefton 1997; Jiang et al. 2007; Bastola et al. 2011). These studies have found that model choice results in large differences, up to 70%, in the predicted discharge changes depending on the climate input. The objective of the study is to investigate the impact of climate change on hydrology of the Odense catchment, Denmark both in response to (a) different climate projections (GCM-RCM combinations); (b) different hydrological models and (c) different land use scenarios. This includes: 1. Separation of the climate model signal; the hydrological model signal and the land use signal 2. How do the different hydrological components react under different climate and land use conditions for the different models 3. What land use scenario seems to provide the best adaptation for the challenges of the different future climate change scenarios from a hydrological perspective? Four climate models from the ENSEMBLES project (Hewitt & Griggs 2004): ECHAM5 - HIRHAM5, ECHAM5 - RCA3, ARPEGE - RM5.1 and HadCM3 - HadRM3 are used, assessing the climate change impact in three periods: 1991-2010 (present), 2041-2060 (near future) and 2081-2100 (far future). The four climate models are used in combination with three hydrological models with different conceptual layout: NAM, SWAT and MIKE SHE. Bastola, S., C. Murphy and J. Sweeney (2011). "The role of hydrological modelling uncertainties in climate change impact assessments of Irish river catchments." Advances in Water Resources 34: 562-576. Boorman, D. B. and C. E. M. Sefton (1997). "Recognising the uncertainty in the quantification of the effects of climate change on hydrological response." Climate Change 35: 415-434. Hewitt, C. D. and D. J. Griggs (2004). "Ensembles-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts." Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 85: 1-566. Jiang, T., Y. D. Chen, C. Xu, X. Chen, X. Chen and V. P. Singh (2007). "Comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change simulated by six hydrological models in the Dongjiang Basin, South China." Journal of hydrology 336: 316-333. Refsgaard, J. C., K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, M. Drews, K. Halsnæs, E. Jeppesen, H. Madsen, A. Markandya, J. E. Olesen, J. R. Porter and J. H. Christensen (2013). "The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies - A Danish water management example." Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 18: 337-359.

Facilitating climate-change-induced range shifts across continental land-use barriers.

PubMed

Robillard, Cassandra M; Coristine, Laura E; Soares, Rosana N; Kerr, Jeremy T

2015-12-01

Climate changes impose requirements for many species to shift their ranges to remain within environmentally tolerable areas, but near-continuous regions of intense human land use stretching across continental extents diminish dispersal prospects for many species. We reviewed the impact of habitat loss and fragmentation on species' abilities to track changing climates and existing plans to facilitate species dispersal in response to climate change through regions of intensive land uses, drawing on examples from North America and elsewhere. We identified an emerging analytical framework that accounts for variation in species' dispersal capacities relative to both the pace of climate change and habitat availability. Habitat loss and fragmentation hinder climate change tracking, particularly for specialists, by impeding both propagule dispersal and population growth. This framework can be used to identify prospective modern-era climatic refugia, where the pace of climate change has been slower than surrounding areas, that are defined relative to individual species' needs. The framework also underscores the importance of identifying and managing dispersal pathways or corridors through semi-continental land use barriers that can benefit many species simultaneously. These emerging strategies to facilitate range shifts must account for uncertainties around population adaptation to local environmental conditions. Accounting for uncertainties in climate change and dispersal capabilities among species and expanding biological monitoring programs within an adaptive management paradigm are vital strategies that will improve species' capacities to track rapidly shifting climatic conditions across landscapes dominated by intensive human land use. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Impact of choice of future climate change projection on growth chamber experimental outcomes: a preliminary study in potato.

PubMed

Leisner, Courtney P; Wood, Joshua C; Vaillancourt, Brieanne; Tang, Ying; Douches, Dave S; Robin Buell, C; Winkler, Julie A

2018-04-01

Understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture is essential to ensure adequate future food production. Controlled growth experiments provide an effective tool for assessing the complex effects of climate change. However, a review of the use of climate projections in 57 previously published controlled growth studies found that none considered within-season variations in projected future temperature change, and few considered regional differences in future warming. A fixed, often arbitrary, temperature perturbation typically was applied for the entire growing season. This study investigates the utility of employing more complex climate change scenarios in growth chamber experiments. A case study in potato was performed using three dynamically downscaled climate change projections for the mid-twenty-first century that differ in terms of the timing during the growing season of the largest projected temperature changes. The climate projections were used in growth chamber experiments for four elite potato cultivars commonly planted in Michigan's major potato growing region. The choice of climate projection had a significant influence on the sign and magnitude of the projected changes in aboveground biomass and total tuber count, whereas all projections suggested an increase in total tuber weight and a decrease in specific gravity, a key market quality trait for potato, by mid-century. These results demonstrate that the use of more complex climate projections that extend beyond a simple incremental change can provide additional insights into the future impacts of climate change on crop production and the accompanying uncertainty.

Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change on Regional Air Quality and Public Health over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, C.; Zhang, Q.; Zhang, Y.; He, K.

2017-12-01

Future climate change would affect public health through changing air quality. Climate extremes and poor weather conditions are likely to occur at a higher frequency in China under a changing climate, but the air pollution-related health impacts due to future climate change remain unclear. Here the potential impacts of future climate change on regional air quality and public health over China is projected using a coupling of climate, air quality and epidemiological models. We present the first assessment of China's future air quality in a changing climate under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario using the dynamical downscaling technique. In RCP4.5 scenario, we estimate that climate change from 2006-2010 to 2046-2050 is likely to adversely affect air quality covering more than 86% of population and 55% of land area in China, causing an average increase of 3% in O3 and PM2.5 concentrations, which are found to be associated with the warmer climate and the more stable atmosphere. Our estimate of air pollution-related mortality due to climate change in 2050 is 26,000 people per year in China. Of which, the PM2.5-related mortality is 18,700 people per year, and the O3-related mortality is 7,300 people per year. The climate-induced air pollution and health impacts vary spatially. The climate impacts are even more pronounced on the urban areas where is densely populated and polluted. 90% of the health loss is concentrated in 20% of land areas in China. We use a simple statistical analysis method to quantify the contributions of climate extremes and find more intense climate extremes play an important role in climate-induced air pollution-related health impacts. Our results indicate that global climate change will likely alter the level of pollutant management required to meet future air quality targets as well as the efforts to protect public health in China.

Nonlinear spherical perturbations in quintessence models of dark energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pratap Rajvanshi, Manvendra; Bagla, J. S.

2018-06-01

Observations have confirmed the accelerated expansion of the universe. The accelerated expansion can be modelled by invoking a cosmological constant or a dynamical model of dark energy. A key difference between these models is that the equation of state parameter w for dark energy differs from ‑1 in dynamical dark energy (DDE) models. Further, the equation of state parameter is not constant for a general DDE model. Such differences can be probed using the variation of scale factor with time by measuring distances. Another significant difference between the cosmological constant and DDE models is that the latter must cluster. Linear perturbation analysis indicates that perturbations in quintessence models of dark energy do not grow to have a significant amplitude at small length scales. In this paper we study the response of quintessence dark energy to non-linear perturbations in dark matter. We use a fully relativistic model for spherically symmetric perturbations. In this study we focus on thawing models. We find that in response to non-linear perturbations in dark matter, dark energy perturbations grow at a faster rate than expected in linear perturbation theory. We find that dark energy perturbation remains localised and does not diffuse out to larger scales. The dominant drivers of the evolution of dark energy perturbations are the local Hubble flow and a supression of gradients of the scalar field. We also find that the equation of state parameter w changes in response to perturbations in dark matter such that it also becomes a function of position. The variation of w in space is correlated with density contrast for matter. Variation of w and perturbations in dark energy are more pronounced in response to large scale perturbations in matter while the dependence on the amplitude of matter perturbations is much weaker.

Factors influencing smallholder farmers' behavioural intention towards adaptation to climate change in transitional climatic zones: A case study of Hwedza District in Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Zamasiya, Byron; Nyikahadzoi, Kefasi; Mukamuri, Billy Billiard

2017-08-01

This paper examines factors influencing behavioural change among smallholder farmers towards adaptation to climate change in transitional climatic zones of Africa, specifically, Hwedza District in Zimbabwe. Data for this study were collected from 400 randomly-selected smallholder farmers, using a structured questionnaire, focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The study used an ordered logit model to examine the factors that influence smallholder farmers' behavioural intention towards adaptation to climate change. Results from the study show that the gender of the household head, access to extension services on crop and livestock production, access to climate information, membership to social groups and experiencing a drought have a positive influence on farmers' attitude towards adaptation to climate change and variability. The study concluded that although the majority of smallholder farmers perceive that the climate is changing, they continue to habour negative attitudes towards prescribed climate change adaptation techniques. This study recommends more education on climate change, as well as adaptation strategies for both agricultural extension workers and farmers. This can be complemented by disseminating timely climate information through extension officers and farmers' groups. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional Climate Change across North America in 2030 Projected from RCP6.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otte, T.; Nolte, C. G.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2012-12-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the general circulation models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture local changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We seek to project the GCM's large-scale climate change signal to the local scale using a regional climate model (RCM) by applying dynamical downscaling techniques. The RCM will be used to better understand the local changes of temperature and precipitation extremes that may result from a changing climate. In this research, downscaling techniques that we developed with historical data are now applied to GCM fields. Results from downscaling NASA/GISS ModelE2 simulations of the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 6.0 will be shown. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices for ca. 2000 and ca. 2030 over North America and illustrate potential changes in regional climate that are projected by ModelE2 and WRF under RCP6.0. The analysis focuses on regional climate fields that most strongly influence the interactions between climate change and air quality. In particular, an analysis of extreme temperature and precipitation events will be presented.

Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling.

PubMed

Sloth Madsen, M; Maule, C Fox; MacKellar, N; Olesen, J E; Christensen, J Hesselbjerg

2012-01-01

Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make the climate projections suitable for impact analysis at the local scale a weather generator approach was adopted. As the weather generator did not treat all the necessary variables, an ad-hoc statistical method was developed to synthesise realistic values of missing variables. The method is presented in this paper, applied to relative humidity, but it could be adopted to other variables if needed.

How much should we know about energy to better implement climate change education?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva-Send, N.; Anders, S.

2011-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change requires us to understand complex and multidisciplinary aspects of climate science. But without also grasping the connection between our lifestyles, behavior, and energy use, it will be difficult for many of us to make changes to contribute to climate change mitigation and energy conservation. A deeper understanding of the energy-climate relationship related to our behavior is thus warranted because, as the internet-based EnergyLiteracy.org points out, albeit within a different but related context of national security and development, "The vast majority of Americans simply don't adequately understand the magnitude and urgency of our national energy crisis ..." and "That lack of understanding deprives our democracy of the political will that must be generated in order to adequately address...." these issues. Our NSF Climate Change Education Program Project, the San Diego Regional Climate Education Partnership (SDRCEP), has as its overarching aim to inform citizens to make balanced decisions based on climate change and energy literacy. The project targets a selected group of 30 key influential persons in the region, and their audiences, representing, for example, the banking sector, the construction industry, the health sector, and commercial real estate. Interviews carried out so far suggest that the connection between climate change and energy use is not easily made. On the other hand, the interviews indicate that a connection is easily made, in this region, between climate change and water availability. Therefore, the purpose of this presentation is to discuss what specific knowledge about personal and societal energy use might be useful to (a) inform and empower key decision-makers responsible for energy-use decisions that significantly affect our lives in the next decades, and (b) empower people to contribute to reducing the impacts of climate change through behavioral or even life-style changes.

Transplantation of subalpine wood-pasture turfs along a natural climatic gradient reveals lower resistance of unwooded pastures to climate change compared to wooded ones.

PubMed

Gavazov, Konstantin; Spiegelberger, Thomas; Buttler, Alexandre

2014-04-01

Climate change could impact strongly on cold-adapted mountain ecosystems, but little is known about its interaction with traditional land-use practices. We used an altitudinal gradient to simulate a year-round warmer and drier climate for semi-natural subalpine grasslands across a landscape of contrasting land-use management. Turf mesocosms from three pasture-woodland land-use types-unwooded pasture, sparsely wooded pasture, and densely wooded pasture-spanning a gradient from high to low management intensity were transplanted downslope to test their resistance to two intensities of climate change. We found strong overall effects of intensive (+4 K) experimental climate change (i.e., warming and reduced precipitation) on plant community structure and function, while moderate (+2 K) climate change did not substantially affect the studied land-use types, thus indicating an ecosystem response threshold to moderate climate perturbation. The individual land-use types were affected differently under the +4 K scenario, with a 60% decrease in aboveground biomass (AGB) in unwooded pasture turfs, a 40% decrease in sparsely wooded pasture turfs, and none in densely wooded ones. Similarly, unwooded pasture turfs experienced a 30% loss of species, advanced (by 30 days) phenological development, and a mid-season senescence due to drought stress, while no such effects were recorded for the other land-use types. The observed contrasting effects of climate change across the pasture-woodland landscape have important implications for future decades. The reduced impact of climate change on wooded pastures as compared to unwooded ones should promote the sustainable land use of wooded pastures by maintaining low management intensity and a sparse forest canopy, which buffer the immediate impacts of climate change on herbaceous vegetation.

Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

PubMed

Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, Matthew; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Lovett, Andrew; Posen, Paulette

2016-10-01

We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A changing climate: impacts on human exposures to O3 using ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Predicting the impacts of changing climate on human exposure to air pollution requires future scenarios that account for changes in ambient pollutant concentrations, population sizes and distributions, and housing stocks. An integrated methodology to model changes in human exposures due to these impacts was developed by linking climate, air quality, land-use, and human exposure models. This methodology was then applied to characterize changes in predicted human exposures to O3 under multiple future scenarios. Regional climate projections for the U.S. were developed by downscaling global circulation model (GCM) scenarios for three of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The regional climate results were in turn used to generate air quality (concentration) projections using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. For each of the climate change scenarios, future U.S. census-tract level population distributions from the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) model for four future scenarios based on the IPCC’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) storylines were used. These climate, air quality, and population projections were used as inputs to EPA’s Air Pollutants Exposure (APEX) model for 12 U.S. cities. Probability density functions show changes in the population distribution of 8 h maximum daily O3 exposur

Impacts of weighting climate models for hydro-meteorological climate change studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jie; Brissette, François P.; Lucas-Picher, Philippe; Caya, Daniel

2017-06-01

Weighting climate models is controversial in climate change impact studies using an ensemble of climate simulations from different climate models. In climate science, there is a general consensus that all climate models should be considered as having equal performance or in other words that all projections are equiprobable. On the other hand, in the impacts and adaptation community, many believe that climate models should be weighted based on their ability to better represent various metrics over a reference period. The debate appears to be partly philosophical in nature as few studies have investigated the impact of using weights in projecting future climate changes. The present study focuses on the impact of assigning weights to climate models for hydrological climate change studies. Five methods are used to determine weights on an ensemble of 28 global climate models (GCMs) adapted from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) database. Using a hydrological model, streamflows are computed over a reference (1961-1990) and future (2061-2090) periods, with and without post-processing climate model outputs. The impacts of using different weighting schemes for GCM simulations are then analyzed in terms of ensemble mean and uncertainty. The results show that weighting GCMs has a limited impact on both projected future climate in term of precipitation and temperature changes and hydrology in terms of nine different streamflow criteria. These results apply to both raw and post-processed GCM model outputs, thus supporting the view that climate models should be considered equiprobable.

Global convergence in leaf respiration from estimates of thermal acclimation across time and space.

PubMed

Vanderwel, Mark C; Slot, Martijn; Lichstein, Jeremy W; Reich, Peter B; Kattge, Jens; Atkin, Owen K; Bloomfield, Keith J; Tjoelker, Mark G; Kitajima, Kaoru

2015-09-01

Recent compilations of experimental and observational data have documented global temperature-dependent patterns of variation in leaf dark respiration (R), but it remains unclear whether local adjustments in respiration over time (through thermal acclimation) are consistent with the patterns in R found across geographical temperature gradients. We integrated results from two global empirical syntheses into a simple temperature-dependent respiration framework to compare the measured effects of respiration acclimation-over-time and variation-across-space to one another, and to a null model in which acclimation is ignored. Using these models, we projected the influence of thermal acclimation on: seasonal variation in R; spatial variation in mean annual R across a global temperature gradient; and future increases in R under climate change. The measured strength of acclimation-over-time produces differences in annual R across spatial temperature gradients that agree well with global variation-across-space. Our models further project that acclimation effects could potentially halve increases in R (compared with the null model) as the climate warms over the 21st Century. Convergence in global temperature-dependent patterns of R indicates that physiological adjustments arising from thermal acclimation are capable of explaining observed variation in leaf respiration at ambient growth temperatures across the globe. © 2015 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Attribution of hydrological change in Heihe River Basin to climate and land use change in the past three decades

PubMed Central

Luo, Kaisheng; Tao, Fulu; Moiwo, Juana P.; Xiao, Dengpan

2016-01-01

The contributions of climate and land use change (LUCC) to hydrological change in Heihe River Basin (HRB), Northwest China were quantified using detailed climatic, land use and hydrological data, along with the process-based SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model. The results showed that for the 1980s, the changes in the basin hydrological change were due more to LUCC (74.5%) than to climate change (21.3%). While LUCC accounted for 60.7% of the changes in the basin hydrological change in the 1990s, climate change explained 57.3% of that change. For the 2000s, climate change contributed 57.7% to hydrological change in the HRB and LUCC contributed to the remaining 42.0%. Spatially, climate had the largest effect on the hydrology in the upstream region of HRB, contributing 55.8%, 61.0% and 92.7% in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively. LUCC had the largest effect on the hydrology in the middle-stream region of HRB, contributing 92.3%, 79.4% and 92.8% in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively. Interestingly, the contribution of LUCC to hydrological change in the upstream, middle-stream and downstream regions and the entire HRB declined continually over the past 30 years. This was the complete reverse (a sharp increase) of the contribution of climate change to hydrological change in HRB. PMID:27647454

Integrated approaches to climate–crop modelling: needs and challenges

PubMed Central

A. Betts, Richard

2005-01-01

This paper discusses the need for a more integrated approach to modelling changes in climate and crops, and some of the challenges posed by this. While changes in atmospheric composition are expected to exert an increasing radiative forcing of climate change leading to further warming of global mean temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns, these are not the only climatic processes which may influence crop production. Changes in the physical characteristics of the land cover may also affect climate; these may arise directly from land use activities and may also result from the large-scale responses of crops to seasonal, interannual and decadal changes in the atmospheric state. Climate models used to drive crop models may, therefore, need to consider changes in the land surface, either as imposed boundary conditions or as feedbacks from an interactive climate–vegetation model. Crops may also respond directly to changes in atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3) and compounds of sulphur and nitrogen, so crop models should consider these processes as well as climate change. Changes in these, and the responses of the crops, may be intimately linked with meteorological processes so crop and climate models should consider synergies between climate and atmospheric chemistry. Some crop responses may occur at scales too small to significantly influence meteorology, so may not need to be included as feedbacks within climate models. However, the volume of data required to drive the appropriate crop models may be very large, especially if short-time-scale variability is important. Implementation of crop models within climate models would minimize the need to transfer large quantities of data between separate modelling systems. It should also be noted that crop responses to climate change may interact with other impacts of climate change, such as hydrological changes. For example, the availability of water for irrigation may be affected by changes in runoff as a direct consequence of climate change, and may also be affected by climate-related changes in demand for water for other uses. It is, therefore, necessary to consider the interactions between the responses of several impacts sectors to climate change. Overall, there is a strong case for a much closer coupling between models of climate, crops and hydrology, but this in itself poses challenges arising from issues of scale and errors in the models. A strategy is proposed whereby the pursuit of a fully coupled climate–chemistry–crop–hydrology model is paralleled by continued use of separate climate and land surface models but with a focus on consistency between the models. PMID:16433093

New capabilities for characterizing smoke and dust aerosol over land using MODIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Levy, R. C.; Remer, L. A.

2006-12-01

Smoke and dust aerosol have different chemical, optical and physical properties and both types affect many processes within the climate system. As earth's surface and atmosphere are continuously altered by natural and anthropogenic processes, the emission and presumably the effects of these aerosols are also changing. Thus it is necessary to observe and characterize aerosols on a global and climatic scale. While MODIS has been reporting characteristics of smoke and dust aerosol over land and ocean since shortly after Terra launch, the uncertainties in the over-land retrieval have been larger than expected. To better characterize different aerosol types closer to their source regions with greater accuracy, we have developed a new operational algorithm for retrieving aerosol properties over dark land surfaces from MODIS-observed visible (VIS) and infrared (IR) reflectance. Like earlier versions, this algorithm estimates the total loading (aerosol optical depth-τ) and relative weighting of fine (non-dust) and coarse (dust) -dominated aerosol to the total τ (fine weighting-η) over dark land surfaces. However, the fundamental mathematics and major assumptions have been overhauled. The new algorithm performs simultaneous multi-channel inversion that includes information about coarse aerosol in the IR channels, while assuming a fine-tuned relationship between VIS and IR surface reflectances, that is itself a function of scattering angle and vegetation condition. Finally, the suite of expected aerosol optical models described by the lookup table have been revised to closer resemble the AERONET climatology, including for smoke and dust aerosol. Beginning in April 2006, this algorithm has been used for forward processing and backward re- processing of the entire MODIS dataset observed from both Terra and Aqua. "Collection 5" products were completed for Aqua reprocessing by July 2006 and should be complete for Terra by December 2006. In this study, we used the complete Aqua dataset (July 2002-Aug 2006) and two years of Terra (2005-Aug 2006) data to evaluate the products in regions known to be dominated by smoke and/or dust. We compared with sunphotometer data at selected AERONET sites and found improved τ retrievals,within prescribed accuracy.

More rapid climate change promotes evolutionary rescue through selection for increased dispersal distance

PubMed Central

Boeye, Jeroen; Travis, Justin M J; Stoks, Robby; Bonte, Dries

2013-01-01

Species can either adapt to new conditions induced by climate change or shift their range in an attempt to track optimal environmental conditions. During current range shifts, species are simultaneously confronted with a second major anthropogenic disturbance, landscape fragmentation. Using individual-based models with a shifting climate window, we examine the effect of different rates of climate change on the evolution of dispersal distances through changes in the genetically determined dispersal kernel. Our results demonstrate that the rate of climate change is positively correlated to the evolved dispersal distances although too fast climate change causes the population to crash. When faced with realistic rates of climate change, greater dispersal distances evolve than those required for the population to keep track of the climate, thereby maximizing population size. Importantly, the greater dispersal distances that evolve when climate change is more rapid, induce evolutionary rescue by facilitating the population in crossing large gaps in the landscape. This could ensure population persistence in case of range shifting in fragmented landscapes. Furthermore, we highlight problems in using invasion speed as a proxy for potential range shifting abilities under climate change. PMID:23467649

Using the Socioscientific Context of Climate Change to Teach Chemical Content and the Nature of Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flener-Lovitt, Charity

2014-01-01

A thematic course called "Climate Change: Chemistry and Controversy" was developed for upper-level non-STEM students. This course used the socioscientific context of climate change to teach chemical principles and the nature of science. Students used principles of agnotology (direct study of misinformation) to debunk climate change…

The Promise and Limitations of Using Analogies to Improve Decision-Relevant Understanding of Climate Change.

PubMed

Raimi, Kaitlin T; Stern, Paul C; Maki, Alexander

2017-01-01

To make informed choices about how to address climate change, members of the public must develop ways to consider established facts of climate science and the uncertainties about its future trajectories, in addition to the risks attendant to various responses, including non-response, to climate change. One method suggested for educating the public about these issues is the use of simple mental models, or analogies comparing climate change to familiar domains such as medical decision making, disaster preparedness, or courtroom trials. Two studies were conducted using online participants in the U.S.A. to test the use of analogies to highlight seven key decision-relevant elements of climate change, including uncertainties about when and where serious damage may occur, its unprecedented and progressive nature, and tradeoffs in limiting climate change. An internal meta-analysis was then conducted to estimate overall effect sizes across the two studies. Analogies were not found to inform knowledge about climate literacy facts. However, results suggested that people found the medical analogy helpful and that it led people-especially political conservatives-to better recognize several decision-relevant attributes of climate change. These effects were weak, perhaps reflecting a well-documented and overwhelming effect of political ideology on climate change communication and education efforts in the U.S.A. The potential of analogies and similar education tools to improve understanding and communication in a polarized political environment are discussed.

Effects of Projected Future Climate Change on Groundwater Recharge and Storage for Two Coastal Aquifers in Guanacaste Province, Costa Rica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolb, C.

2017-12-01

Climate change is expected to pose a significant threat to water resources in the future. Guanacaste Province, located in northwestern Costa Rica, has a unique climate that is influenced by the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea, as well as the Central Cordillera mountain range. Although the region experiences a marked rainy season between May and November, the hot, dry summers often stress water resources. Climate change projections suggest increased temperatures and reduced precipitation for the region, which will further stress water supplies. This study focuses on the effects of climate change on groundwater resources for two coastal aquifers, Potrero and Brasilito. The UZF model package coupled with the finite difference groundwater flow model MODFLOW were used to evaluate the effect of climate change on groundwater recharge and storage. A potential evapotranspiration model was used to estimate groundwater infiltration rates used in the MODFLOW model. Climate change projections for temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise were used to develop climate scenarios, which were compared to historical data. Preliminary results indicate that climate change could reduce future recharge, especially during the dry season. Additionally, the coastal aquifers are at increased risk of reduced storage and increased salinization due to the reductions in groundwater recharge and sea level rise. Climate change could also affect groundwater quality in the region, disrupting the ecosystem and impairing a primary source of drinking water.

Evaluating Impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow using SWAT and land use models based CESM1-CAM5 Climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Tzu Ping; Lin, Yu Pin; Lien, Wan Yu

2015-04-01

Climate change projects have various levels of impacts on hydrological cycles around the world. The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which has been just be released in Taiwan, 2014. Since the streamflow run into ocean directly due to the steep terrain and the rainfall difference between wet and dry seasons is apparent; as a result, the allocation water resource reasonable is very challenge in Taiwan, particularly under climate change. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on a small watershed in Taiwan. The AR5 General Circulation Models(GCM) output data was adopted in this study and was downscaled from the monthly to the daily weather data as the input data of hydrological model such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in this study. The spatially explicit land uses change model, the Conservation of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s), was applied to simulate land use scenarios in 2020-2039. Combined climate and land use change scenarios were adopted as input data of the hydrological model, the SWAT model, to estimate the future streamflows. With the increasing precipitation, increasing urban area and decreasing agricultural and grass land, the annual streamflow in the most of twenty-three subbasins were also increased. Besides, due to the increasing rainfall in wet season and decreasing rainfall in dry season, the difference of streamflow between wet season and dry season are also increased. This result indicates a more stringent challenge on the water resource management in future. Therefore, impacts on water resource caused by climate change and land use change should be considered in water resource planning for the Datuan river watershed. Keywords: SWAT, GCM, CLUE-s, streamflow, climate change, land use change

Correlations between Climate Change and the Modern European Construction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gumińska, Anna

2017-10-01

The aim of the study was to analyze the links between climate change and the way modern cities are structured and responded to climate change. How do these changes affect building materials and technologies, or does climate change affect the type of technology and materials used? The most important results are the effects of analysing selected examples of a modern European building, the use of materials and technology, the adaptation of buildings to the changing climate. Selected examples of contemporary architecture from Germany, Italy and Denmark, Norway and Sweden. There are also examples in photographic documentation. The most important criteria affecting the objects are elements that shape the changing climate, as well as existing legal and technical requirements. The main conclusion was that modern urban space is adapted to the changing climate. Unprecedented climatic phenomena in this area: intense and sudden rain, snow, floods, strong winds, abundant sunshine, high temperature changes, greenhouse effect of the city - “island heat”, atmospheric pollution. Building materials and technologies contribute to the optimal conservation of natural resources, buildings are shaped in such a way as to ensure safety, resilience and environmental protection. However, there is still a need for continuous monitoring of climate change, criteria affecting the design and construction of urban and central facilities. Key words: energy efficiency, renewable energy, climate change, contemporary architecture.

Land Use, climate change and BIOdiversity in cultural landscapes (LUBIO): Assessing feedbacks and promoting land-use strategies towards a viable future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dullinger, Iwona; Bohner, Andreas; Dullinger, Stefan; Essl, Franz; Gaube, Veronika; Haberl, Helmut; Mayer, Andreas; Plutzar, Christoph; Remesch, Alexander

2016-04-01

Land-use and climate change are important, pervasive drivers of global environmental change and pose major threats to global biodiversity. Research to date has mostly focused either on land-use change or on climate change, but rarely on the interactions between both drivers, even though it is expected that systemic feedbacks between changes in climate and land use will have important effects on biodiversity. In particular, climate change will not only alter the pool of plant and animal species capable of thriving in a specific area, it will also force land owners to reconsider their land use decisions. Such changes in land-use practices may have major additional effects on local and regional species composition and abundance. In LUBIO, we will explore the anticipated systemic feedbacks between (1) climate change, (2) land owner's decisions on land use, (3) land-use change, and (4) changes in biodiversity patterns during the coming decades in a regional context which integrates a broad range of land use practices and intensity gradients. To achieve this goal, an integrated socioecological model will be designed and implemented, consisting of three principal components: (1) an agent based model (ABM) that simulates decisions of important actors, (2) a spatially explicit GIS model that translates these decisions into changes in land cover and land use patterns, and (3) a species distribution model (SDM) that calculates changes in biodiversity patterns following from both changes in climate and the land use decisions as simulated in the ABM. Upon integration of these three components, the coupled socioecological model will be used to generate scenarios of future land-use decisions of landowners under climate change and, eventually, the combined effects of climate and land use changes on biodiversity. Model development of the ABM will be supported by a participatory process intended to collect regional and expert knowledge through a series of expert interviews, a series of transdisciplinary participatory modelling workshops, and a questionnaire-based survey targeted at regional farmers. Beside the integrated socioecological model a catalogue of recommended actions will be developed in order to distribute the insights of the research to the most relevant regional stakeholder groups.

The added complications of climate change: understanding and managing biodiversity and ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amanda Staudt,; Allison K. Leidner,; Jennifer Howard,; Kate A. Brauman,; Jeffrey S. Dukes,; Hansen, Lara J.; Paukert, Craig P.; Sabo, John L.; Solorzano, Luis A.

2013-01-01

Ecosystems around the world are already threatened by land-use and land-cover change, extraction of natural resources, biological disturbances, and pollution. These environmental stressors have been the primary source of ecosystem degradation to date, and climate change is now exacerbating some of their effects. Ecosystems already under stress are likely to have more rapid and acute reactions to climate change; it is therefore useful to understand how multiple stresses will interact, especially as the magnitude of climate change increases. Understanding these interactions could be critically important in the design of climate adaptation strategies, especially because actions taken by other sectors (eg energy, agriculture, transportation) to address climate change may create new ecosystem stresses.

Radiometric and Radiation Response of Visible FPAs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hubbs, John

2007-01-01

The readout integrated circuit (ROIC) used in these devices was originally developed for use in space based infrared systems operating at deep cryogenic temperatures and was selected because of its proven tolerance to total ionizing radiation? The detectors are a 128 x 128 array of 60 pm x 60 pm pixel elements that have been anti-reflection (AR) coated to improve the response at very short wavelengths. These visible focal plane arrays were operated at -40 C (233 K). Two focal planes were characterized using cobalt-60 radiation to produce ionizing total dose damage in the VFPAs. Both operational and performance data were obtained as functions of total dose. The first device tested showed no appreciable change in responsivity or noise up to 300 krad(Si). However, at the next dose level of 600 krad(Si), the readout was non-operational due to failure in the digital circuitry. The second device was characterized to a total dose of 750 krad(Si) with no observed change in responsivity. An increase dark current was observed in both devices, and in the second device, the dark current caused an increase in noise at low irradiance at 400 krad(Si) and above. The increase in dark current was somewhat un-expected for visible PIN detectors. The median dark current increased more than two orders of magnitude at 300 krad(Si) for the first device and a factor of 350 at 750 krad(Si) for pixels near the edge for the second device. The dark current was found to be a strong function of detector bias, with pixels near the edge of the array showing a greater increase in dark current with bias than those near the center. Since the optical response was not a function of bias, it is hypothesized that the dark current is a surface effect and that the variation in dark current with location is due to a variation in pixel bias, caused by a voltage drop across the pixel common lead. As the total dose increased, the dark current and the voltage drop increased

Reconstructing paleoceanographic conditions in the westernmost Mediterranean during the last 4.000 yr: tracking rapid climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nieto-Moreno, V.; Martínez-Ruiz, F.; Jiménez-Espejo, F. J.; Gallego-Torres, D.; Rodrigo-Gámiz, M.; Sakamoto, T.; Böttcher, M.; García-Orellana, J.; Ortega-Huertas, M.

2009-04-01

The westernmost Mediterranean (Alboran Sea basin) is a key location for paleoceanographic and paleoclimatic reconstructions since high sedimentation rates provide ultra high-resolution records at centennial and millennial scales. Here, we present a paleoenvironmental reconstruction for the last 4000 yr, which is based on a multi-proxy approach that includes major and trace element-content fluctuations and mineral composition of marine sediments. The investigated materials correspond to several gravity and box cores recovered in the Alboran Sea basin during different oceanographic cruises (TTR-14 and TTR-17), which have been sampled at very high resolution. Comparative analysis of these cores allows establishing climate oscillations at centennial to millennial scales. Although relatively more attention have been devoted to major climate changes during the last glacial cycle, such as the Last Glacial Maximun, deglaciation and abrupt cooling events (Heinrich and Younger Dryas), the late Holocene has also been punctuated by significant rapid climate variability including polar cooling, aridity and changes in the intensity of the atmospheric circulation. These climate oscillations coincide with significant fluctuations in chemical and mineral composition of marine sediments. Thus, bulk and clay mineralogy, REE composition and Rb/Al, Zr/Al, La/Lu ratios provide information on the sedimentary regime (eolian-fluvial input and source areas), Ba-based proxies on fluctuations in marine productivity and redox sensitive elements on oxygen conditions at time of deposition. A decrease in fluvial-derived elements/minerals (e.g., Rb, detrital mica) takes places during the so-called Late Bronze Age-Iron Age, Dark Age, and Little Ice Age Period. Meanwhile an increase is evidenced during the Medieval Warm Period and the Roman Humid Period. This last trend runs parallel to a decline of element/minerals of typical eolian source (Zr, kaolinite) with the exception of the Roman Humid Period where Zr/Al ratio increases. These climate oscillations (wet and dry periods) are also accompanied by changes in marine productivity rates, as suggested by the Ba/Al ratio. Additionally, anthropic contribution during the Industrial Period is also evidenced by a significant increase in Pb content in most recent sediments. Acknowledges: Projects Marcal CGL2006-13327-C04-04, Sagas CTM2005-08071-C03-01, Ministerio MARM 200800050084447, RNM 0179, CSD2006-00041.

Some guidelines for helping natural resources adapt to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Jill S.; Julius, Susan Herrod; West, Jordan M.; Joyce, Linda A.; Blate, Geoffrey; Peterson, Charles H.; Palmer, Margaret; Keller, Brian D.; Kareiva, Peter; Scott, J. Michael; Griffith, Brad

2008-01-01

The changes occurring in mountain regions are an epitome of climate change. The dramatic shrinkage of major glaciers over the past century – and especially in the last 30 years – is one of several iconic images that have come to symbolize climate change. Climate creates the context for ecosystems, and climate variables strongly influence the structure, composition, and processes that characterize distinct ecosystems. Climate change, therefore, is having direct and indirect effects on species attributes, ecological interactions, and ecosystem processes. Because changes in the climate system will continue regardless of emissions mitigation, management strategies to enhance the resilience of ecosystems will become increasingly important. It is essential that management responses to climate change proceed using the best available science despite uncertainties associated with the future path of climate change, the response of ecosystems to climate effects, and the effects of management. Given these uncertainties, management adaptation will require flexibility to reflect our growing understanding of climate change impacts and management effectiveness.

Characterizing the "Time of Emergence" of Air Quality Climate Penalties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rothenberg, D. A.; Garcia-Menendez, F.; Monier, E.; Solomon, S.; Selin, N. E.

2017-12-01

By driving not only local changes in temperature, but also precipitation and regional-scale changes in seasonal circulation patterns, climate change can directly and indirectly influence changes in air quality and its extremes. These changes - often referred to as "climate penalties" - can have important implications for human health, which is often targeted when assessing the potential co-benefits of climate policy. But because climate penalties are driven by slow, spatially-varying, temporal changes in the climate system, their emergence in the real world should also have a spatio-temporal component following regional variability in background air quality. In this work, we attempt to estimate the spatially-varying "time of emergence" of climate penalty signals by using an ensemble modeling framework based on the MIT Integrated Global System Model (MIT IGSM). With this framework we assess three climate policy scenarios assuming three different underlying climate sensitivities, and conduct a 5-member ensemble for each case to capture internal variability within the model. These simulations are used to drive offline chemical transport modeling (using CAM-Chem and GEOS-Chem). In these simulations, we find that the air quality response to climate change can vary dramatically across different regions of the globe. To analyze these regionally-varying climate signals, we employ a hierarchical clustering technique to identify regions with similar seasonal patterns of air quality change. Our simulations suggest that the earliest emergence of ozone climate penalties would occur in Southern Europe (by 2035), should the world neglect climate change and rely on a "business-as-usual" emissions policy. However, even modest climate policy dramatically pushes back the time of emergence of these penalties - to beyond 2100 - across most of the globe. The emergence of climate-forced changes in PM2.5 are much more difficult to detect, partially owing to the large role that changes in the frequency and spatial distribution of precipitation play in limiting the accumulation and duration of particulate pollution episodes.

Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America.

PubMed

Boit, Alice; Sakschewski, Boris; Boysen, Lena; Cano-Crespo, Ana; Clement, Jan; Garcia-Alaniz, Nashieli; Kok, Kasper; Kolb, Melanie; Langerwisch, Fanny; Rammig, Anja; Sachse, René; van Eupen, Michiel; von Bloh, Werner; Clara Zemp, Delphine; Thonicke, Kirsten

2016-11-01

Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio-economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5-6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land-use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land-use expansion is halted by the mid-century. We suggest that constraining land-use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate-change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio-economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Visualizing and communicating climate change using the ClimateWizard: decision support and education through web-based analysis and mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girvetz, E. H.; Zganjar, C.; Raber, G. T.; Maurer, E. P.; Duffy, P.

2009-12-01

Virtually all fields of study and parts of society—from ecological science and nature conservation, to global development, multinational corporations, and government bodies—need to know how climate change has and may impact specific locations of interest. Our ability to respond to climate change depends on having convenient tools that make past and projected climate trends available to planners, managers, scientists and the general public, at scales ranging from global to local scales. Web-mapping applications provide an effective platform for communicating climate change impacts in specific geographic areas of interest to the public. Here, we present one such application, the ClimateWizard, that allows users to analyze, visualize and explore climate change maps for specific geographic areas of interest throughout the world (http://ClimateWizard.org). Built on Web 2.0 web-services (SOAP), Google Maps mash-up, and cloud computing technologies, the ClimateWizard analyzes large databases of climate information located on remote servers to create synthesized information and useful products tailored to geographic areas of interest (e.g. maps, graphs, tables, GIS layers). We demonstrate how the ClimateWizard can be used to assess projected changes to temperature and precipitation across all states in the contiguous United States and all countries of the world using statistically downscaled general circulation models from the CMIP3 dataset. We then go on to show how ClimateWizard can be used to analyze changes to other climate related variables, such as moisture stress and water production. Finally, we discuss how this tool can be adapted to develop a wide range of web-based tools that are targeted at informing specific audiences—from scientific research and natural resource management, to K-12 and higher education—about how climate change may affect different aspects of human and natural systems.

Land Use and Management Change in the U.S. with Adaptation and Mitigation under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mu, J. E.; McCarl, B.

2011-12-01

Land use and management change interact with climate change. Land uses such as forestry, cropping and grazing depend on specific ecosystems that will be affected by climate change. Furthermore, this change will not be uniform across land uses or regions. Consequently, land use productivity will change as will the mix of land uses (Mendelsohn and Dinar 2009). On the other hand, land use has been a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions (IPCC 2007). Therefore, research focusing on land use change, climate change and greenhouse gas mitigation should consider the interaction between these effects. The research to be reported in this presentation investigates how agricultural and forestry land use and management decisions change across the coterminous U.S. under climate change with and without adaptation plus how a carbon price policy influences decisions, mitigates GHG emissions and alters carbon sequestration. Our approach is to simulate behavior under climate scenarios by 2030 using data from alternative two climate and two vegetation models while allowing for adaptive responses and imposing carbon prices. To do this, we use the Forest and Agricultural Optimization model with Greenhouse Gases (FASOMGHG) (Adams et al. 2005). In total, 16 scenarios are considered involving climate change and GHG prices relative to a base case with no climate change and no adaptation or mitigation. After analyzing results across regions and sectors, our findings include: 1.More land is converted to forestry use and less land is used for agricultural purposes under both the adaptation and mitigation strategies. 2. Harvest rotation of hardwood is lengthened and harvest of softwood and hardwood are reduced when a carbon price is included. However, such management changes were insignificant when only the adaptation strategy is used. 3. The total GHG emissions from agricultural and forestry sector are increased by 2-3 millions tones CO2 equivalent under climate change and adaptation in the absence of GHG prices, but when those prices are introduced emissions are reduced by 6 millions tones CO2 equivalent. Similarly, under climate change, GHG prices stimulate a gain in carbon sequestration in the agricultural and forestry sectors. 4. Forest sector welfare and crop producer surplus is reduced under the adaption policy by a small amount, that is -0.02 and 0.14-0.2 billion dollars respectively. However, forest welfare, agricultural welfare, crop producer surplus and livestock producer surplus all increased, by 0.62, 0.67, 0.84 and 1.48 billion dollars, respectively when GHG prices are introduced. References Adams DM, Alig RJ, McCarl BA et al., 2005. FASOMGHG conceptual structure, and specification: documentation. Texas A&M University, (http://agecon2.tamu.edu/people/faculty/mccarl-bruce/papers/ 1212FASOMGHG_doc.pdf) IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK Mendelsohn R, Dinar A. 2009. Land Use and Climate Change Interactions. Annual Review of Resource Economics. 1: 309-332.

Projected wetland densities under climate change: habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy.

PubMed

Sofaer, Helen R; Skagen, Susan K; Barsugli, Joseph J; Rashford, Benjamin S; Reese, Gordon C; Hoeting, Jennifer A; Wood, Andrew W; Noon, Barry R

2016-09-01

Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species' vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Climate change and habitat conversion favour the same species.

PubMed

Frishkoff, Luke O; Karp, Daniel S; Flanders, Jon R; Zook, Jim; Hadly, Elizabeth A; Daily, Gretchen C; M'Gonigle, Leithen K

2016-09-01

Land-use change and climate change are driving a global biodiversity crisis. Yet, how species' responses to climate change are correlated with their responses to land-use change is poorly understood. Here, we assess the linkages between climate and land-use change on birds in Neotropical forest and agriculture. Across > 300 species, we show that affiliation with drier climates is associated with an ability to persist in and colonise agriculture. Further, species shift their habitat use along a precipitation gradient: species prefer forest in drier regions, but use agriculture more in wetter zones. Finally, forest-dependent species that avoid agriculture are most likely to experience decreases in habitable range size if current drying trends in the Neotropics continue as predicted. This linkage suggests a synergy between the primary drivers of biodiversity loss. Because they favour the same species, climate and land-use change will likely homogenise biodiversity more severely than otherwise anticipated. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN THAILAND AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON RICE YIELD

EPA Science Inventory

Because of the uncertainties surrounding prediction of climate change, it is common to employ climate scenarios to estimate its impacts on a system. Climate scenarios are sets of climatic perturbations used with models to test system sensitivity to projected changes. In this stud...

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

DOE PAGES

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne; ...

2017-12-20

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactionsmore » between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.« less

Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le Page, Yannick; Morton, Douglas; Hartin, Corinne

Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactionsmore » between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.« less

Climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Thomas M.

2016-01-01

Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

Farmers' perceptions of climate change and agricultural adaptation strategies in rural Sahel.

PubMed

Mertz, Ole; Mbow, Cheikh; Reenberg, Anette; Diouf, Awa

2009-05-01

Farmers in the Sahel have always been facing climatic variability at intra- and inter-annual and decadal time scales. While coping and adaptation strategies have traditionally included crop diversification, mobility, livelihood diversification, and migration, singling out climate as a direct driver of changes is not so simple. Using focus group interviews and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by sedentary farmers in the savanna zone of central Senegal. Households are aware of climate variability and identify wind and occasional excess rainfall as the most destructive climate factors. Households attribute poor livestock health, reduced crop yields and a range of other problems to climate factors, especially wind. However, when questions on land use and livelihood change are not asked directly in a climate context, households and groups assign economic, political, and social rather than climate factors as the main reasons for change. It is concluded that the communities studied have a high awareness of climate issues, but climatic narratives are likely to influence responses when questions mention climate. Change in land use and livelihood strategies is driven by adaptation to a range of factors of which climate appears not to be the most important. Implications for policy-making on agricultural and economic development will be to focus on providing flexible options rather than specific solutions to uncertain climate.

Correlation of molecular expression with diel rhythm of oviposition in Calliphora vicina (Robineau-Desvoidy) (Diptera: Calliphoridae) and implications for forensic entomology.

PubMed

George, Kelly A; Archer, Melanie S; Toop, Tes

2015-01-01

This study explored the molecular mechanisms potentially underlying blow fly nocturnal oviposition. A behavioral study revealed that Calliphora vicina (Robineau-Desvoidy) (Diptera: Calliphoridae) possesses a diel rhythm of oviposition in light under 12:12 light/dark conditions. Reversal to 12:12 dark/light resulted in oviposition behavior changing to align with the adjusted regime in most females, but four of 59 experimental females lacked a diel rhythm of oviposition (were arrhythmic). Real-time PCR was used to monitor the molecular expression levels of known circadian genes per and tim in C. vicina to determine whether gene expression and behavior correlated. As with behavior, reversing light/dark conditions changed rhythmic gene expression to align with an adjusted light regime. This suggests that although it is unlikely that C. vicina will colonize dead bodies at night, arrhythmic females and oviposition in the dark was demonstrated. © 2014 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Land-use change may exacerbate climate change impacts on water resources in the Ganges basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsarouchi, Gina; Buytaert, Wouter

2018-02-01

Quantifying how land-use change and climate change affect water resources is a challenge in hydrological science. This work aims to quantify how future projections of land-use and climate change might affect the hydrological response of the Upper Ganges river basin in northern India, which experiences monsoon flooding almost every year. Three different sets of modelling experiments were run using the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) land surface model (LSM) and covering the period 2000-2035: in the first set, only climate change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) outputs of 21 models, under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), whilst land use was held fixed at the year 2010. In the second set, only land-use change is taken into account, and JULES was driven by a time series of 15 future land-use pathways, based on Landsat satellite imagery and the Markov chain simulation, whilst the meteorological boundary conditions were held fixed at years 2000-2005. In the third set, both climate change and land-use change were taken into consideration, as the CMIP5 model outputs were used in conjunction with the 15 future land-use pathways to force JULES. Variations in hydrological variables (stream flow, evapotranspiration and soil moisture) are calculated during the simulation period. Significant changes in the near-future (years 2030-2035) hydrologic fluxes arise under future land-cover and climate change scenarios pointing towards a severe increase in high extremes of flow: the multi-model mean of the 95th percentile of streamflow (Q5) is projected to increase by 63 % under the combined land-use and climate change high emissions scenario (RCP8.5). The changes in all examined hydrological components are greater in the combined land-use and climate change experiment. Results are further presented in a water resources context, aiming to address potential implications of climate change and land-use change from a water demand perspective. We conclude that future water demands in the Upper Ganges region for winter months may not be met.

Managing United States public lands in response to climate change: a view from the ground up.

PubMed

Ellenwood, Mikaela S; Dilling, Lisa; Milford, Jana B

2012-05-01

Federal land managers are faced with the task of balancing multiple uses and goals when making decisions about land use and the activities that occur on public lands. Though climate change is now well recognized by federal agencies and their local land and resource managers, it is not yet clear how issues related to climate change will be incorporated into on-the-ground decision making within the framework of multiple use objectives. We conducted a case study of a federal land management agency field office, the San Juan Public Lands Center in Durango, CO, U.S.A., to understand from their perspective how decisions are currently made, and how climate change and carbon management are being factored into decision making. We evaluated three major management sectors in which climate change or carbon management may intersect other use goals: forests, biofuels, and grazing. While land managers are aware of climate change and eager to understand more about how it might affect land resources, the incorporation of climate change considerations into everyday decision making is currently quite limited. Climate change is therefore on the radar screen, but remains a lower priority than other issues. To assist the office in making decisions that are based on sound scientific information, further research is needed into how management activities influence carbon storage and resilience of the landscape under climate change.

Knowing climate change, embodying climate praxis: experiential knowledge in southern Appalachia

Treesearch

Jennifer L. Rice; Brian J. Burke; Nik Heynen

2015-01-01

Whether used to support or impede action, scientific knowledge is now, more than ever, the primary framework for political discourse on climate change. As a consequence, science has become a hegemonic way of knowing climate change by mainstream climate politics, which not only limits the actors and actions deemed legitimate in climate politics but also silences...

Analysis of shifts in the spatial distribution of vegetation due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

del Jesus, Manuel; Díez-Sierra, Javier; Rinaldo, Andrea; Rodríguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2017-04-01

Climate change will modify the statistical regime of most climatological variables, inducing changes on average values and in the natural variability of environmental variables. These environmental variables may be used to explain the spatial distribution of functional types of vegetation in arid and semiarid watersheds through the use of plant optimization theories. Therefore, plant optimization theories may be used to approximate the response of the spatial distribution of vegetation to a changing climate. Predicting changes in these spatial distributions is important to understand how climate change may affect vegetated ecosystems, but it is also important for hydrological engineering applications where climate change effects on water availability are assessed. In this work, Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) is used as the plant optimization theory that describes the spatial distribution of functional types of vegetation. Current climatological conditions are obtained from direct observations from meteorological stations. Climate change effects are evaluated for different temporal horizons and different climate change scenarios using numerical model outputs from the CMIP5. Rainfall estimates are downscaled by means of a stochastic point process used to model rainfall. The study is carried out for the Rio Salado watershed, located within the Sevilleta LTER site, in New Mexico (USA). Results show the expected changes in the spatial distribution of vegetation and allow to evaluate the expected variability of the changes. The updated spatial distributions allow to evaluate the vegetated ecosystem health and its updated resilience. These results can then be used to inform the hydrological modeling part of climate change assessments analyzing water availability in arid and semiarid watersheds.

Regional Climate Change across the Continental U.S. Projected from Downscaling IPCC AR5 Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otte, T. L.; Nolte, C. G.; Otte, M. J.; Pinder, R. W.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2011-12-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the general circulation models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture local changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We seek to project the GCM's large-scale climate change signal to the local scale using a regional climate model (RCM) by applying dynamical downscaling techniques. The RCM will be used to better understand the local changes of temperature and precipitation extremes that may result from a changing climate. Preliminary results from downscaling NASA/GISS ModelE simulations of the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 6.0 will be shown. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be used as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices for ca. 2000 and ca. 2030 and illustrate potential changes in regional climate for the continental U.S. that are projected by ModelE and WRF under RCP6.0.

Undergraduate Students' Conceptions of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenbath, K. L.

2011-12-01

Scientists and educators strive to improve climate literacy throughout society, whether through communication of research findings or though classroom teaching. Despite these efforts, climate change misconceptions exist in students and the general public. When educators present evidence that contradicts misconceptions, students may begin to struggle with their inaccurate ideas and perhaps transition towards a scientifically-accepted understanding. These transitions, called conceptual change, can occur in college climate change courses. The purpose of this presentation is to describe college students' ideas of natural and anthropogenic climate change and the way these ideas change throughout a climate change course. This presentation is based on five case studies of undergraduate students in a large lecture-hall course dedicated to climate change. Each case study student represents a different level of climate change understanding at the beginning of the semester. These case studies and subsequent cross-case analyses result from a qualitative research study using interviews, field notes, artifact analysis, coding and categorization, and research memos. The cases show shifts in all five students' ideas of natural and anthropogenic climate change. During the first month of class, the three lower achieving students expressed uncertainty about the increase in average global temperatures due to anthropogenic climate change. At the end of the semester, these students explained that warming from climate change is natural, yet the rate of this warming is increasing due to human activities. Two of the lower achieving students constructed definitions of climate change different than the definition used by the professor in the classroom. These students solidified the idea that the term "climate change" describes the change that results from natural forcings only, while the term "global warming" describes change in the climate that results from human-caused forcings. Their constructed definition removes human-causes from association with the word "climate change", which may influence their climate change understanding. Of the two higher achieving students, one emphasized anthropogenic climate change at the beginning of the semester, but later focused on natural climate change during his interviews. The other high achieving student included tangential environmental topics in her descriptions of climate change throughout the entire semester, thus conflating climate change's definition. These alternative definitions of climate change indicate that the learners constructed hybrid conceptions in order to incorporate class content with their prior ideas. These hybrid conceptions indicate that the students' understandings lie somewhere between misconceptions and conceptual change. Since the students demonstrated these hybrid conceptions at the end of class, perhaps more time is needed for the students to process the information. These case studies identify the gaps the professor should address for conceptual change to fully occur.

Simultaneous Retrieval of Multiple Aerosol Parameters Using a Multi-Angular Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuo, K. S.; Weger, R. C.; Welch, R. M.

1997-01-01

Atmospheric aerosol particles, both natural and anthropogenic, are important to the earth's radiative balance through their direct and indirect effects. They scatter the incoming solar radiation (direct effect) and modify the shortwave reflective properties of clouds by acting as cloud condensation nuclei (indirect effect). Although it has been suggested that aerosols exert a net cooling influence on climate, this effect has received less attention than the radiative forcing due to clouds and greenhouse gases. In order to understand the role that aerosols play in a changing climate, detailed and accurate observations are a prerequisite. The retrieval of aerosol optical properties by satellite remote sensing has proven to be a difficult task. The difficulty results mainly from the tenuous nature and variable composition of aerosols. To date, with single-angle satellite observations, we can only retrieve reliably against dark backgrounds, such as over oceans and dense vegetation. Even then, assumptions must be made concerning the chemical composition of aerosols. The best hope we have for aerosol retrievals over bright backgrounds are observations from multiple angles, such as those provided by the MISR and POLDER instruments. In this investigation we examine the feasibility of simultaneous retrieval of multiple aerosol optical parameters using reflectances from a typical set of twelve angles observed by the French POLDER instrument. The retrieved aerosol optical parameters consist of asymmetry factor, single scattering albedo, surface albedo, and optical thickness.

Near term climate projections for invasive species distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, C.S.; Stohlgren, T.J.

2009-01-01

Climate change and invasive species pose important conservation issues separately, and should be examined together. We used existing long term climate datasets for the US to project potential climate change into the future at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than the climate change scenarios generally available. These fine scale projections, along with new species distribution modeling techniques to forecast the potential extent of invasive species, can provide useful information to aide conservation and invasive species management efforts. We created habitat suitability maps for Pueraria montana (kudzu) under current climatic conditions and potential average conditions up to 30 years in the future. We examined how the potential distribution of this species will be affected by changing climate, and the management implications associated with these changes. Our models indicated that P. montana may increase its distribution particularly in the Northeast with climate change and may decrease in other areas. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Climate Change in Colorado: Developing a Synthesis of the Science to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Averyt, K. B.; Deheza, V.; Udall, B.

2008-12-01

In 2007 Colorado's Governor Ritter issued a Colorado Climate Action Plan, in response to the risks associated with climate change and sets a goal to adapt to those climate changes "that cannot be avoided." The Western Water Assessment, a NOAA funded RISA program, was commissioned to do a synthesis of the science on climate change aimed at planners, decisionmakers, and policymakers in water in Colorado. Changes in Colorado's climate and implications for water resources are occurring in a global context. The objective of the report is to communicate the state of the science regarding the physical aspects of climate change that are important for evaluating impacts on Colorado's water resources, and to support state efforts to develop a water adaptation plan. However, the identification of specific climate change impacts on water resources is beyond the scope of this report. Water managers have a long history of adapting to changing circumstances, including changes in economies and land use, environmental concerns, and population growth. Climate change will further affect the decisions made about use of water. However, current water management practices may not be robust enough to cope with this climate change. This presentation reports on the process of developing the report and challenges we faced. We developed the report based on ongoing interactions with the water management community and discussions with them about their decision processes and needs. A second presentation (see Barsugli et al) presents the synthesis findings from the report. We followed the IPCC WG1 model of observations, attribution, and projections. However, many published studies and datasets include information about Colorado, there are few climate studies that focus only on the state. Consequently, many important scientific analyses for Colorado have not been done, and Colorado- specific information is often imbedded in or averaged with studies of the larger Western U.S. We used findings from peer-reviewed regional studies, and conducted new analyses derived from existing datasets and model projections, and took advantage of new regional analyses. In addition to the IPCC Fourth Assessment, we also took advantage of very new Climate Change Science Program Assessments. Many water managers, although often technically savvy engineers, hydrologists and other professionals, but are not trained as climate or atmospheric scientists, and seeks to complexity by using Fahrenheit units, minimizing use of or defining jargon terms, and re-plotting published figures/data for simplicity. The report is written at a less technical level than the IPCC reports, and some features are intended to raise the level of climate literacy of our audience about climate and how climate science is done. For example, the report includes a primer on climate models and theory that situates Colorado in the context of global climate change and describes how the unique features of the state -- such as the complex topography -- relate to interpreting and using climate change projections. This report responds to Colorado state agencies' and water management community needs to understanding of climate change and is an initial step in establishing Colorado's water-related adaptation needs. Another impact of this report is as an experiment in climate services for climate change information and exploring the challenges of communicating the information to diverse decisionmakers.

The influence of land-use change and landscape dynamics on the climate system: relevance to climate-change policy beyond the radiative effect of greenhouse gases.

PubMed

Pielke, Roger A; Marland, Gregg; Betts, Richard A; Chase, Thomas N; Eastman, Joseph L; Niles, John O; Niyogi, Dev Dutta S; Running, Steven W

2002-08-15

Our paper documents that land-use change impacts regional and global climate through the surface-energy budget, as well as through the carbon cycle. The surface-energy budget effects may be more important than the carbon-cycle effects. However, land-use impacts on climate cannot be adequately quantified with the usual metric of 'global warming potential'. A new metric is needed to quantify the human disturbance of the Earth's surface-energy budget. This 'regional climate change potential' could offer a new metric for developing a more inclusive climate protocol. This concept would also implicitly provide a mechanism to monitor potential local-scale environmental changes that could influence biodiversity.

76 FR 71405 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Amex LLC; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change To Codify...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-17

... to disaggregated order information have the option to electronically enter dark interest that is not... have the ability to enter partially or completely ``dark'' orders that are not visible to the DMM, and DMMs therefore would be unable to disseminate information about such ``dark'' orders or the dark...

A design for a sustained assessment of climate forcings and feedbacks on land use land cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loveland, Thomas; Mahmood, Rezaul

2014-01-01

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) significantly influences the climate system. Hence, to prepare the nation for future climate change and variability, a sustained assessment of LULCC and its climatic impacts needs to be undertaken. To address this objective, not only do we need to determine contemporary trends in land use and land cover that affect, or are affected by, weather and climate but also identify sectors and regions that are most affected by weather and climate variability. Moreover, it is critical that we recognize land cover and regions that are most vulnerable to climate change and how end-use practices are adapting to climate change. This paper identifies a series of steps that need to be undertaken to address these key items. In addition, national-scale institutional capabilities are identified and discussed. Included in the discussions are challenges and opportunities for collaboration among these institutions for a sustained assessment.

Public Perception of Uncertainties Within Climate Change Science.

PubMed

Visschers, Vivianne H M

2018-01-01

Climate change is a complex, multifaceted problem involving various interacting systems and actors. Therefore, the intensities, locations, and timeframes of the consequences of climate change are hard to predict and cause uncertainties. Relatively little is known about how the public perceives this scientific uncertainty and how this relates to their concern about climate change. In this article, an online survey among 306 Swiss people is reported that investigated whether people differentiate between different types of uncertainty in climate change research. Also examined was the way in which the perception of uncertainty is related to people's concern about climate change, their trust in science, their knowledge about climate change, and their political attitude. The results of a principal component analysis showed that respondents differentiated between perceived ambiguity in climate research, measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty about the future impact of climate change. Using structural equation modeling, it was found that only perceived ambiguity was directly related to concern about climate change, whereas measurement uncertainty and future uncertainty were not. Trust in climate science was strongly associated with each type of uncertainty perception and was indirectly associated with concern about climate change. Also, more knowledge about climate change was related to less strong perceptions of each type of climate science uncertainty. Hence, it is suggested that to increase public concern about climate change, it may be especially important to consider the perceived ambiguity about climate research. Efforts that foster trust in climate science also appear highly worthwhile. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

National climate assessment technical report on the impacts of climate and land use and land cover change

Treesearch

Thomas Loveland; Rezaul Mahmood; Toral Patel-Weynand; Krista Karstensen; Kari Beckendorf; Norman Bliss; Andrew Carleton

2012-01-01

This technical report responds to the recognition by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Climate Assessment (NCA) of the importance of understanding how land use and land cover (LULC) affects weather and climate variability and change and how that variability and change affects LULC. Current published, peer-reviewed, scientific literature...

Farm Simulation: a tool for evaluating the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and the adaptation of dairy production to climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Farms both produce greenhouse gas emissions that drive human-induced climate change and are impacted by that climate change. Whole farm and global climate models provide useful tools for studying the benefits and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation and the adaptation of farms to changing climate. The...

Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in the United States and Implications for Sustainability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.

2012-01-01

As an integral part of the National Climate Assessment (NCA), technical assessment reports for 13 regions in the U.S. that describe the scientific rationale to support climate change impacts within the purview of these regions, and provide adaptation or mitigation measures in response to these impacts. These technical assessments focus on climate change impacts on sectors that are important environmental, biophysical, and social and economic aspects of sustainability within the U.S.: Climate change science, Ecosystems and biodiversity, Water resources, Human health, Energy supply and use, Water/energy/land use, Transportation, Urban/infrastructure/vulnerability, Agriculture, Impacts of climate change on tribal/indigenous and native lands and resources, Forestry, Land use/land cover change, Rural communities development, and Impacts on biogeochemical cycles, with implications for ecosystems and biodiversity. There is a critical and timely need for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to climate change by the policy and decision making communities, to insure resiliency and sustainability of the built environment in the future.

Investigating the Sensitivity of Streamflow and Water Quality to Climate Change and Urbanization in 20 U.S. Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, T. E.; Weaver, C. P.; Butcher, J.; Parker, A.

2011-12-01

Watershed modeling was conducted in 20 large (15,000-60,000 km2), U.S. watersheds to address gaps in our knowledge of the sensitivity of U.S. streamflow, nutrient (N and P) and sediment loading to potential future climate change, and methodological challenges associated with integrating existing tools (e.g., climate models, watershed models) and datasets to address these questions. Climate change scenarios are based on dynamically downscaled (50x50 km2) output from four of the GCMs used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report for the period 2041-2070 archived by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). To explore the potential interaction of climate change and urbanization, model simulations also include urban and residential development scenarios for each of the 20 study watersheds. Urban and residential development scenarios were acquired from EPA's national-scale Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. Watershed modeling was conducted using the Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models. Here we present a summary of results for 5 of the study watersheds; the Minnesota River, the Susquehanna River, the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint, the Salt/Verde/San Pedro, and the Willamette River Basins. This set of results provide an overview of the response to climate change in different regions of the U.S., the different sensitivities of different streamflow and water quality endpoints, and illustrate a number of methodological issues including the sensitivities and uncertainties associated with use of different watershed models, approaches for downscaling climate change projections, and interaction between climate change and other forcing factors, specifically urbanization and changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration.

Adaptation of Land-Use Demands to the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Processes of an Urbanized Watershed

PubMed Central

Lin, Yu-Pin; Hong, Nien-Ming; Chiang, Li-Chi; Liu, Yen-Lan; Chu, Hone-Jay

2012-01-01

The adaptation of land-use patterns is an essential aspect of minimizing the inevitable impact of climate change at regional and local scales; for example, adapting watershed land-use patterns to mitigate the impact of climate change on a region’s hydrology. The objective of this study is to simulate and assess a region’s ability to adapt to hydrological changes by modifying land-use patterns in the Wu-Du watershed in northern Taiwan. A hydrological GWLF (Generalized Watershed Loading Functions) model is used to simulate three hydrological components, namely, runoff, groundwater and streamflow, based on various land-use scenarios under six global climate models. The land-use allocations are simulated by the CLUE-s model for the various development scenarios. The simulation results show that runoff and streamflow are strongly related to the precipitation levels predicted by different global climate models for the wet and dry seasons, but groundwater cycles are more related to land-use. The effects of climate change on groundwater and runoff can be mitigated by modifying current land-use patterns; and slowing the rate of urbanization would also reduce the impact of climate change on hydrological components. Thus, land-use adaptation on a local/regional scale provides an alternative way to reduce the impacts of global climate change on local hydrology. PMID:23202833

Connectivity planning to address climate change.

PubMed

Nuñez, Tristan A; Lawler, Joshua J; McRae, Brad H; Pierce, D John; Krosby, Meade B; Kavanagh, Darren M; Singleton, Peter H; Tewksbury, Joshua J

2013-04-01

As the climate changes, human land use may impede species from tracking areas with suitable climates. Maintaining connectivity between areas of different temperatures could allow organisms to move along temperature gradients and allow species to continue to occupy the same temperature space as the climate warms. We used a coarse-filter approach to identify broad corridors for movement between areas where human influence is low while simultaneously routing the corridors along present-day spatial gradients of temperature. We modified a cost-distance algorithm to model these corridors and tested the model with data on current land-use and climate patterns in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. The resulting maps identified a network of patches and corridors across which species may move as climates change. The corridors are likely to be robust to uncertainty in the magnitude and direction of future climate change because they are derived from gradients and land-use patterns. The assumptions we applied in our model simplified the stability of temperature gradients and species responses to climate change and land use, but the model is flexible enough to be tailored to specific regions by incorporating other climate variables or movement costs. When used at appropriate resolutions, our approach may be of value to local, regional, and continental conservation initiatives seeking to promote species movements in a changing climate. Planificación de Conectividad para Atender el Cambio Climático. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Extreme climate events counteract the effects of climate and land-use changes in Alpine treelines

PubMed Central

Barros, Ceres; Guéguen, Maya; Douzet, Rolland; Carboni, Marta; Boulangeat, Isabelle; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Münkemüller, Tamara; Thuiller, Wilfried

2017-01-01

Summary 1. Climate change and extreme events, such as drought, threaten ecosystems worldwide and in particular mountain ecosystems, where species often live at their environmental tolerance limits. In the European Alps, plant communities are also influenced by land-use abandonment leading to woody encroachment of subalpine and alpine grasslands. 2. In this study, we explored how the forest–grassland ecotone of Alpine treelines will respond to gradual climate warming, drought events and land-use change in terms of forest expansion rates, taxonomic diversity and functional composition. We used a previously validated dynamic vegetation model, FATE-HD, parameterised for plant communities in the Ecrins National Park in the French Alps. 3. Our results showed that intense drought counteracted the forest expansion at higher elevations driven by land-use abandonment and climate change, especially when combined with high drought frequency (occurring every 2 or less than 2 years). 4. Furthermore, intense and frequent drought accelerated the rates of taxonomic change and resulted in overall higher taxonomic spatial heterogeneity of the ecotone than would be expected under gradual climate and land-use changes only. 5. Synthesis and applications. The results from our model show that intense and frequent drought counteracts forest expansion driven by climate and land-use changes in the forest–grassland ecotone of Alpine treelines. We argue that land-use planning must consider the effects of extreme events, such as drought, as well as climate and land-use changes, since extreme events might interfere with trends predicted under gradual climate warming and agricultural abandonment. PMID:28670002

The Impact of Urban Growth and Climate Change on Heat Stress in an Australian City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, S.; Mcalpine, C. A.; Thatcher, M. J.; Salazar, A.; Watson, J. R.

2017-12-01

Over half of the world's population lives in urban areas. Most people will therefore be exposed to climate change in an urban environment. One of the climate risks facing urban residents is heat stress, which can lead to illness and death. Urban residents are at increased risk of heat stress due to the urban heat island effect. The urban heat island is a modification of the urban environment and increases temperatures on average by 2°C, though the increase can be much higher, up to 8°C when wind speeds and cloud cover are low. The urban heat island is also expected to increase in the future due to urban growth and intensification, further exacerbating urban heat stress. Climate change alters the urban heat island due to changes in weather (wind speed and cloudiness) and evapotranspiration. Future urban heat stress will therefore be affected by urban growth and climate change. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of urban growth and climate change on the urban heat island and heat stress in Brisbane, Australia. We used CCAM, the conformal cubic atmospheric model developed by the CSIRO, to examine temperatures in Brisbane using scenarios of urban growth and climate change. We downscaled the urban climate using CCAM, based on bias corrected Sea Surface Temperatures from the ACCESS1.0 projection of future climate. We used Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for the periods 1990 - 2000, 2049 - 2060 and 2089 - 2090 with current land use and an urban growth scenario. The present day climatology was verified using weather station data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. We compared the urban heat island of the present day with the urban heat island with climate change to determine if climate change altered the heat island. We also calculated heat stress using wet-bulb globe temperature and apparent temperature for the climate change and base case scenarios. We found the urban growth scenario increased present day temperatures by 0.5°C in the inner city and by 6°C during a period of hot days. The scenarios of future temperature are ongoing and will show how heat stress will change in Brisbane when both urban growth and climate change are considered.

Adaptation with climate uncertainty: An examination of agricultural land use in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mu, Jianhong E.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Zhang, Hongliang

2018-01-01

This paper examines adaptation responses to climate change through adjustment of agricultural land use. The climate drivers we examine are changes in long-term climate normals (e.g., 10-year moving averages) and changes in inter-annual climate variability. Using US county level data over 1982 to 2012 from Census of Agriculture, we find that impacts of long-term climate normals are as important as that of inter-annual climate variability. Projecting into the future, we find projected climate change will lead to an expansion in crop land share across the northern and interior western United States with decreases in the south. We also find that grazing land share increases in southern regions and Inland Pacific Northwest and declines in the northern areas. However, the extent to which the adaptation potential would be is dependent on the climate model, emission scenario and time horizon under consideration.

Implications of land use change in tropical West Africa under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brücher, Tim; Claussen, Martin

2015-04-01

Northern Africa, and the Sahel in particular, are highly vulnerable to climate change, due to strong exposure to increasing temperature, precipitation variability, and population growth. A major link between climate and humans in this region is land use and associated land cover change, mainly where subsistence farming prevails. But how strongly does climate change affect land use and how strongly does land use feeds back into climate change? To which extent may climate-induced water, food and wood shortages exacerbate conflict potential and lead changes in land use and to migration? Estimates of possible changes in African climate vary among the Earth System Models participating in the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) exercise, except for the region adjacent to the Mediterranean Sea, where a significant decrease of precipitation emerges. While all models agree in a strong temperature increase, rainfall uncertainties for most parts of the Sahara, Sahel, and Sudan are higher. Here we present results of complementary experiments based on extreme and idealized land use change scenarios within a future climate.. We use the MPI-ESM forced with a strong green house gas scenario (RCP8.5) and apply an additional land use forcing by varying largely the intensity and kind of agricultural practice. By these transient experiments (until 2100) we elaborate the additional impact on climate due to strong land use forcing. However, the differences are mostly insignificant. The greenhouse gas caused temperature increase and the high variability in the West African Monsoon rainfall superposes the minor changes in climate due to land use. While simulated climate key variables like precipitation and temperature are not distinguishable from the CMIP5 RCP8.5 results, an additional greening is simulated, when crops are demanded. Crops have lower water usage than pastureland has. This benefits available soil water, which is taken up by the natural vegetation and makes it more productive. Given the limitations of an ESM, the findings of our study show that changes in the kind and intensity of land use have minor effects on the climate. Consequently, implications of extreme land use on e.g. human security, conflict or migration can be investigated in offline simulations.

Integrating climate change in transportation and land use scenario planning : an example from central New Mexico

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-04-01

The Central New Mexico Climate Change Scenario Planning Project, an Interagency Transportation, Land Use, and Climate Change Initiative, utilized a scenario planning process to develop a multiagency transportation- and land use-focused development st...

78 FR 65248 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Threatened Status for the Distinct Population...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-31

... effects of climate change on wolverines in the future. Our assessment of climate change impacts on wolverines used wolverines' snow dependence and suitable wolverine habitat and climate change models to predict future impacts of climate change on wolverine habitat suitability. Some of the commenters...

Adapting to Health Impacts of Climate Change in the Department of Defense.

PubMed

Chrétien, Jean-Paul

2016-01-01

The Department of Defense (DoD) recognizes climate change as a threat to its mission and recently issued policy to implement climate change adaptation measures. However, the DoD has not conducted a comprehensive assessment of health-related climate change effects. To catalyze the needed assessment--a first step toward a comprehensive DoD climate change adaptation plan for health--this article discusses the DoD relevance of 3 selected climate change impacts: heat injuries, vector-borne diseases, and extreme weather that could lead to natural disasters. The author uses these examples to propose a comprehensive approach to planning for health-related climate change impacts in the DoD.

Climate Change Research - What Do We Need Really?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rama Chandra Prasad, P.

2015-01-01

This research note focuses on the current climate change research scenario and discusses primarily what is required in the present global climate change conditions. Most of the climate change research and models predict adverse future conditions that have to be faced by humanity, with less emphasis on mitigation measures. Moreover, research ends as reports on the shelves of scientists and researchers and as publications in journals. At this juncture the major focus should be on research that helps in reducing the impact rather than on analysing future scenarios of climate change using different models. The article raises several questions and suggestions regards climate change research and lays emphasis on what we really need from climate change researchers.

The fingerprints of global climate change on insect populations.

PubMed

Boggs, Carol L

2016-10-01

Synthesizing papers from the last two years, I examined generalizations about the fingerprints of climate change on insects' population dynamics and phenology. Recent work shows that populations can differ in response to changes in climate means and variances. The part of the thermal niche occupied by an insect population, voltinism, plasticity and adaptation to weather perturbations, and interactions with other species can all exacerbate or mitigate responses to climate change. Likewise, land use change or agricultural practices can affect responses to climate change. Nonetheless, our knowledge of effects of climate change is still biased by organism and geographic region, and to some extent by scale of climate parameter. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate change unlikely to increase malaria burden in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamana, Teresa K.; Bomblies, Arne; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2016-11-01

The impact of climate change on malaria transmission has been hotly debated. Recent conclusions have been drawn using relatively simple biological models and statistical approaches, with inconsistent predictions. Consequently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) echoes this uncertainty, with no clear guidance for the impacts of climate change on malaria transmission, yet recognizing a strong association between local climate and malaria. Here, we present results from a decade-long study involving field observations and a sophisticated model simulating village-scale transmission. We drive the malaria model using select climate models that correctly reproduce historical West African climate, and project reduced malaria burden in a western sub-region and insignificant impact in an eastern sub-region. Projected impacts of climate change on malaria transmission in this region are not of serious concern.

Geology and insolation-driven climatic history of Amazonian north polar materials on Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tanaka, K.L.

2005-01-01

Mariner 9 and Viking spacecraft images revealed that the polar regions of Mars, like those of Earth, record the planet's climate history. However, fundamental uncertainties regarding the materials, features, ages and processes constituting the geologic record remained. Recently acquired Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter data and Mars Orbiter Camera high-resolution images from the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft and moderately high-resolution Thermal Emission Imaging System visible images from the Mars Odyssey spacecraft permit more comprehensive geologic and climatic analyses. Here I map and show the history of geologic materials and features in the north polar region that span the Amazonian period (???3.0 Gyr ago to present). Erosion and redeposition of putative circumpolar mud volcano deposits (formed by eruption of liquefied, fine-grained material) led to the formation of an Early Amazonian polar plateau consisting of dark layered materials. Crater ejecta superposed on pedestals indicate that a thin mantle was present during most of the Amazonian, suggesting generally higher obliquity and insolation conditions at the poles than at present. Brighter polar layered deposits rest unconformably on the dark layers and formed mainly during lower obliquity over the past 4-5 Myr (ref. 20). Finally, the uppermost layers post-date the latest downtrend in obliquity <20,000 years ago. ?? 2005 Nature Publishing Group.

Geology and insolation-driven climatic history of Amazonian north polar materials on Mars.

PubMed

Tanaka, Kenneth L

2005-10-13

Mariner 9 and Viking spacecraft images revealed that the polar regions of Mars, like those of Earth, record the planet's climate history. However, fundamental uncertainties regarding the materials, features, ages and processes constituting the geologic record remained. Recently acquired Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter data and Mars Orbiter Camera high-resolution images from the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft and moderately high-resolution Thermal Emission Imaging System visible images from the Mars Odyssey spacecraft permit more comprehensive geologic and climatic analyses. Here I map and show the history of geologic materials and features in the north polar region that span the Amazonian period (approximately 3.0 Gyr ago to present). Erosion and redeposition of putative circumpolar mud volcano deposits (formed by eruption of liquefied, fine-grained material) led to the formation of an Early Amazonian polar plateau consisting of dark layered materials. Crater ejecta superposed on pedestals indicate that a thin mantle was present during most of the Amazonian, suggesting generally higher obliquity and insolation conditions at the poles than at present. Brighter polar layered deposits rest unconformably on the dark layers and formed mainly during lower obliquity over the past 4-5 Myr (ref. 20). Finally, the uppermost layers post-date the latest downtrend in obliquity <20,000 years ago.

Diel Variation of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compound Emissions- A field Study in the Sub, Low and High Arctic on the Effect of Temperature and Light

PubMed Central

Lindwall, Frida; Faubert, Patrick; Rinnan, Riikka

2015-01-01

Many hours of sunlight in the midnight sun period suggest that significant amounts of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) may be released from arctic ecosystems during night-time. However, the emissions from these ecosystems are rarely studied and limited to point measurements during daytime. We measured BVOC emissions during 24-hour periods in the field using a push-pull chamber technique and collection of volatiles in adsorbent cartridges followed by analysis with gas chromatography- mass spectrometry. Five different arctic vegetation communities were examined: high arctic heaths dominated by Salix arctica and Cassiope tetragona, low arctic heaths dominated by Salix glauca and Betula nana and a subarctic peatland dominated by the moss Warnstorfia exannulata and the sedge Eriophorum russeolum. We also addressed how climate warming affects the 24-hour emission and how the daytime emissions respond to sudden darkness. The emissions from the high arctic sites were lowest and had a strong diel variation with almost no emissions during night-time. The low arctic sites as well as the subarctic site had a more stable release of BVOCs during the 24-hour period with night-time emissions in the same range as those during the day. These results warn against overlooking the night period when considering arctic emissions. During the day, the quantity of BVOCs and the number of different compounds emitted was higher under ambient light than in darkness. The monoterpenes α-fenchene, α -phellandrene, 3-carene and α-terpinene as well as isoprene were absent in dark measurements during the day. Warming by open top chambers increased the emission rates both in the high and low arctic sites, forewarning higher emissions in a future warmer climate in the Arctic. PMID:25897519

The Political Economy of Health Co-Benefits: Embedding Health in the Climate Change Agenda.

PubMed

Workman, Annabelle; Blashki, Grant; Bowen, Kathryn J; Karoly, David J; Wiseman, John

2018-04-04

A complex, whole-of-economy issue such as climate change demands an interdisciplinary, multi-sectoral response. However, evidence suggests that human health has remained elusive in its influence on the development of ambitious climate change mitigation policies for many national governments, despite a recognition that the combustion of fossil fuels results in pervasive short- and long-term health consequences. We use insights from literature on the political economy of health and climate change, the science–policy interface and power in policy-making, to identify additional barriers to the meaningful incorporation of health co-benefits into climate change mitigation policy development. Specifically, we identify four key interrelated areas where barriers may exist in relation to health co-benefits: discourse, efficiency, vested interests and structural challenges. With these insights in mind, we argue that the current politico-economic paradigm in which climate change is situated and the processes used to develop climate change mitigation policies do not adequately support accounting for health co-benefits. We present approaches for enhancing the role of health co-benefits in the development of climate change mitigation policies to ensure that health is embedded in the broader climate change agenda.

The Political Economy of Health Co-Benefits: Embedding Health in the Climate Change Agenda

PubMed Central

Workman, Annabelle; Blashki, Grant; Bowen, Kathryn J.; Karoly, David J.; Wiseman, John

2018-01-01

A complex, whole-of-economy issue such as climate change demands an interdisciplinary, multi-sectoral response. However, evidence suggests that human health has remained elusive in its influence on the development of ambitious climate change mitigation policies for many national governments, despite a recognition that the combustion of fossil fuels results in pervasive short- and long-term health consequences. We use insights from literature on the political economy of health and climate change, the science–policy interface and power in policy-making, to identify additional barriers to the meaningful incorporation of health co-benefits into climate change mitigation policy development. Specifically, we identify four key interrelated areas where barriers may exist in relation to health co-benefits: discourse, efficiency, vested interests and structural challenges. With these insights in mind, we argue that the current politico-economic paradigm in which climate change is situated and the processes used to develop climate change mitigation policies do not adequately support accounting for health co-benefits. We present approaches for enhancing the role of health co-benefits in the development of climate change mitigation policies to ensure that health is embedded in the broader climate change agenda. PMID:29617317

Climate Prediction Center - Outreach: 41st Annual Climate Diagnostics &

Science.gov Websites

the University of Maine Climate Change Institute and School of Earth and Climate Sciences and is co (drought, heat waves, severe weather, tropical cyclones) in the framework of climate variability and change and including the use of paleoclimate data. Arctic climate variability and change, and linkages to

Climate Change Impacts on US Water Quality using two Models: HAWQS and US Basins

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change and freshwater quality are well-linked. Changes in climate result in changes in streamflow and rising water temperatures, which impact biochemical reaction rates and increase stratification in lakes and reservoirs. Using two water quality modeling systems (the Hydr...

Warming trumps CO2: future climate conditions suppress carbon fluxes in two dominant boreal tree species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Way, D.; Dusenge, M. E.; Madhavji, S.

2017-12-01

Increases in CO2 are expected to raise air temperatures in northern latitudes by up to 8 °C by the end of the century. Boreal forests in these regions play a large role in the global carbon cycle, and the responses of boreal tree species to climate drivers will thus have considerable impacts on the trajectory of future CO2 increases. We grew two dominant North American boreal tree species at a range of future climate conditions to assess how carbon fluxes were altered by high CO2 and warming. Black spruce (Picea mariana) and tamarack (Larix laricina) were grown from seed under either ambient (400 ppm) or elevated CO2 concentrations (750 ppm) and either ambient temperatures, moderate warming (ambient +4 °C), or extreme warming (ambient +8 °C) for six months. We measured temperature responses of net photosynthesis, maximum rates of Rubisco carboxylation (Vcmax) and electron transport (Jmax) and dark respiration to determine acclimation to the climate treatments. Overall, growth temperature had a strong effect on carbon fluxes, while there were no significant effects of growth CO2. In both species, the photosynthetic thermal optimum increased and maximum photosynthetic rates were reduced in warm-grown seedlings, but the strength of these changes varied between species. Vcmax and Jmax were also reduced in warm-grown seedlings, and this correlated with reductions in leaf N concentrations. Warming increased the activation energy for Vcmax and the thermal optimum for Jmax in both species. Respiration acclimated to elevated growth temperatures, but there were no treatment effects on the Q10 of respiration (the increase in respiration for a 10 °C increase in leaf temperature). Our results show that climate warming is likely to reduce carbon fluxes in these boreal conifers, and that photosynthetic parameters used to model photosynthesis in dynamic global vegetation models acclimate to increased temperatures, but show little response to elevated CO2.

Minimizing Surface Exposure to Climate Extremity in Coastal Megacities by Structure Remodelling using Integral Geographic Information System: Lessons from Greater Mumbai Metropolitan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, A.

2016-12-01

Coastal metropolitans in South Asia represent the most densely populated and congested urban spaces ranking among the largest urban settlements of the planet. These megacities are characterized by inadequate infrastructure, lack of mitigation tools, and weak resilience of urban ecosystems. Additionally, climate change has increased vulnerability of poor and marginalized population living in rapidly growing coastal megacities to increased frequency, severity and intensity of extreme weather events. This has adversely affected local counter strategies and adaptation tools, transforming such events into hazards with the inability to respond and mitigate. Study aimed to develop a participatory framework for risk reduction in Greater Mumbai Metropolitan by Structure Remodeling (SR) in integral GIS. Research utilized terrain analysis tools and vulnerability mapping, and identified risk susceptible fabric and checked its scope for SR without: 1.adding to its (often) complex fragmentation, and 2.without interference with the ecosystem services accommodated by it. Surfaces available included paved ground, streetscapes commercial facades, rooftops,public spaces, open as well as dark spaces. Remodeling altered certain characteristics in the intrinsic or extrinsic cross-section profile or in both (if suitable) with infrastructure measures (grey, green, blue) that collectively involved ecosystem services and maintained natural hydrological connection. This method fairly reduced exposure of vulnerable surface and minimized risk to achieve extremity-neutral state. Harmonizing with public perception and incorporating priorities of local authorities, the method is significant as it rises above the fundamental challenges arising during management of (often) conflicting perspectives and interests of multiplicity of stakeholders involved at various levels in urban climate governance while ensuring inclusive solutions with reduced vulnerability and increased resilience. Additionally this method has vast potential to replicate for climate smart planning beyond the study region as it clearly ensures barrier free climate-communication process for decision making while looking for long term feasible outcomes of remodeled surface through the most affordable and innovative tools.

Patterns and biases in climate change research on amphibians and reptiles: a systematic review.

PubMed

Winter, Maiken; Fiedler, Wolfgang; Hochachka, Wesley M; Koehncke, Arnulf; Meiri, Shai; De la Riva, Ignacio

2016-09-01

Climate change probably has severe impacts on animal populations, but demonstrating a causal link can be difficult because of potential influences by additional factors. Assessing global impacts of climate change effects may also be hampered by narrow taxonomic and geographical research foci. We review studies on the effects of climate change on populations of amphibians and reptiles to assess climate change effects and potential biases associated with the body of work that has been conducted within the last decade. We use data from 104 studies regarding the effect of climate on 313 species, from 464 species-study combinations. Climate change effects were reported in 65% of studies. Climate change was identified as causing population declines or range restrictions in half of the cases. The probability of identifying an effect of climate change varied among regions, taxa and research methods. Climatic effects were equally prevalent in studies exclusively investigating climate factors (more than 50% of studies) and in studies including additional factors, thus bolstering confidence in the results of studies exclusively examining effects of climate change. Our analyses reveal biases with respect to geography, taxonomy and research question, making global conclusions impossible. Additional research should focus on under-represented regions, taxa and questions. Conservation and climate policy should consider the documented harm climate change causes reptiles and amphibians.

Integrating Climate Change Into Nursing Curricula.

PubMed

McDermott-Levy, Ruth; Jackman-Murphy, Kathryn P; Leffers, Jeanne M; Jordan, Lisa

2018-03-28

Climate change is a significant threat to human health across the life cycle. Nurses play an important role in mitigation, adaptation, and resilience to climate change. The use of health care resources, air quality and extreme heat, mental health, and natural disasters are major content areas across undergraduate nursing curricula that influence or are influenced by climate change. Teaching strategies and resources are offered to prepare nursing students to address climate change and human health.

The effects of climate change and land-use change on demographic rates and population viability.

PubMed

Selwood, Katherine E; McGeoch, Melodie A; Mac Nally, Ralph

2015-08-01

Understanding the processes that lead to species extinctions is vital for lessening pressures on biodiversity. While species diversity, presence and abundance are most commonly used to measure the effects of human pressures, demographic responses give a more proximal indication of how pressures affect population viability and contribute to extinction risk. We reviewed how demographic rates are affected by the major anthropogenic pressures, changed landscape condition caused by human land use, and climate change. We synthesized the results of 147 empirical studies to compare the relative effect size of climate and landscape condition on birth, death, immigration and emigration rates in plant and animal populations. While changed landscape condition is recognized as the major driver of species declines and losses worldwide, we found that, on average, climate variables had equally strong effects on demographic rates in plant and animal populations. This is significant given that the pressures of climate change will continue to intensify in coming decades. The effects of climate change on some populations may be underestimated because changes in climate conditions during critical windows of species life cycles may have disproportionate effects on demographic rates. The combined pressures of land-use change and climate change may result in species declines and extinctions occurring faster than otherwise predicted, particularly if their effects are multiplicative. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

The Promise and Limitations of Using Analogies to Improve Decision-Relevant Understanding of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Stern, Paul C.; Maki, Alexander

2017-01-01

To make informed choices about how to address climate change, members of the public must develop ways to consider established facts of climate science and the uncertainties about its future trajectories, in addition to the risks attendant to various responses, including non-response, to climate change. One method suggested for educating the public about these issues is the use of simple mental models, or analogies comparing climate change to familiar domains such as medical decision making, disaster preparedness, or courtroom trials. Two studies were conducted using online participants in the U.S.A. to test the use of analogies to highlight seven key decision-relevant elements of climate change, including uncertainties about when and where serious damage may occur, its unprecedented and progressive nature, and tradeoffs in limiting climate change. An internal meta-analysis was then conducted to estimate overall effect sizes across the two studies. Analogies were not found to inform knowledge about climate literacy facts. However, results suggested that people found the medical analogy helpful and that it led people—especially political conservatives—to better recognize several decision-relevant attributes of climate change. These effects were weak, perhaps reflecting a well-documented and overwhelming effect of political ideology on climate change communication and education efforts in the U.S.A. The potential of analogies and similar education tools to improve understanding and communication in a polarized political environment are discussed. PMID:28135337

Full annual cycle climate change vulnerability assessment for migratory birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Culp, Leah A.; Cohen, Emily B.; Scarpignato, Amy L.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Marra, Peter P.

2017-01-01

Climate change is a serious challenge faced by all plant and animal species. Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are one method to assess risk and are increasingly used as a tool to inform management plans. Migratory animals move across regions and continents during their annual cycles where they are exposed to diverse climatic conditions. Climate change during any period and in any region of the annual cycle could influence survival, reproduction, or the cues used to optimize timing of migration. Therefore, CCVAs for migratory animals best estimate risk when they include climate exposure during the entire annual cycle. We developed a CCVA incorporating the full annual cycle and applied this method to 46 species of migratory birds breeding in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes (UMGL) region of the United States. Our methodology included background risk, climate change exposure × climate sensitivity, adaptive capacity to climate change, and indirect effects of climate change. We compiled information about migratory connectivity between breeding and stationary non-breeding areas using literature searches and U.S. Geological Survey banding and re-encounter data. Climate change exposure (temperature and moisture) was assessed using UMGL breeding season climate and winter climate from non-breeding regions for each species. Where possible, we focused on non-breeding regions known to be linked through migratory connectivity. We ranked 10 species as highly vulnerable to climate change and two as having low vulnerability. The remaining 34 species were ranked as moderately vulnerable. In general, including non-breeding data provided more robust results that were highly individualistic by species. Two species were found to be highly vulnerable throughout their annual cycle. Projected drying will have the greatest effect during the non-breeding season for species overwintering in Mexico and the Caribbean. Projected temperature increases will have the greatest effect during the breeding season in UMGL as well as during the non-breeding season for species overwintering in South America. We provide a model for adaptive management of migratory animals in the face of projected climate change, including identification of priority species, research needs, and regions within non-breeding ranges for potential conservation partnerships.

State Wildlife Action Plans as Tools for Adapting to a Continuously Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metivier, D. W.; Yocum, H.; Ray, A. J.

2015-12-01

Public land management plans are potentially powerful policies for building sustainability and adaptive capacity. Land managers are recognizing the need to respond to numerous climate change impacts on natural and human systems. For the first time, in 2015, the federal government required each state to incorporate climate change into their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAP) as a condition for funding. As important land management tools, SWAPs have the potential to guide state agencies in shaping and implementing practices for climate change adaptation. Intended to be revised every ten years, SWAPs can change as conditions and understanding of climate change evolves. This study asks what practices are states using to integrate climate change, and how does this vary between states? To answer this question, we conducted a broad analysis among seven states (CO, MT, NE, ND, SD, UT, WY) and a more in-depth analysis of four states (CO, ND, SD, WY). We use seven key factors that represent best practices for incorporating climate change identified in the literature. These best practices are species prioritization, key habitats, threats, monitoring, partnerships and participation, identification of management options, and implementation of management options. The in-depth analysis focuses on how states are using climate change information for specific habitats addressed in the plans. We find that states are integrating climate change in many different ways, showing varying degrees of sophistication and preparedness. We summarize different practices and highlight opportunities to improve the effectiveness of plans through: communication tools across state lines and stakeholders, explicit targeting of key habitats, enforcement and monitoring progress and success, and conducting vulnerability analyses that incorporate topics beyond climate and include other drivers, trajectories, and implications of historic and future land-use change.

Applying a simple water-energy balance framework to predict the climate sensitivity of streamflow over the continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renner, M.; Bernhofer, C.

2011-12-01

The prediction of climate effects on terrestrial ecosystems and water resources is one of the major research questions in hydrology. Conceptual water-energy balance models can be used to gain a first order estimate of how long-term average streamflow is changing with a change in water and energy supply. A common framework for investigation of this question is based on the Budyko hypothesis, which links hydrological response to aridity. Recently, Renner et al. (2011) introduced the CCUW hypothesis, which is based on the assumption that the total efficiency of the catchment ecosystem to use the available water and energy for actual evapotranspiration remains constant even under climate changes. Here, we confront the climate sensitivity approaches (including several versions of Budyko's approach and the CCUW) with data of more than 400 basins distributed over the continental United States. We first map an estimate of the sensitivity of streamflow to changes in precipitation using long-term average data of the period 1949-2003. This provides a hydro-climatic status of the respective basins as well as their expected proportional effect on changes in climate. Next, by splitting the data in two periods, we (i) analyse the long-term average changes in hydro-climatolgy, we (ii) use the different climate sensitivity methods to predict the change in streamflow given the observed changes in water and energy supply and (iii) we apply a quantitative approach to separate the impacts of changes in the long-term average climate from basin characteristics change on streamflow. This allows us to evaluate the observed changes in streamflow as well as to evaluate the impact of basin changes on the validity of climate sensitivity approaches. The apparent increase of streamflow in the majority of basins in the US is dominated by a climate trend towards increased humidity. It is further evident that impacts of changes in basin characteristics appear in parallel with climate changes. There are coherent spatial patterns with basins of increasing catchment efficiency being dominant in the western and central parts of the US. A hot spot of decreasing efficiency is found within the US Midwest. The impact of basin changes on the prediction is large and can be twice as the observed change signal. However, we find that both, the CCUW hypothesis and the approaches using the Budyko hypothesis, show minimal deviations between observed and predicted changes in streamflow for basins where a dominance of climatic changes and low influences of basin changes have been found. Thus, climate sensitivity methods can be regarded as valid tools if we expect climate changes only and neglect any direct anthropogenic influences.

Abrupt climate change: can society cope?

PubMed

Hulme, Mike

2003-09-15

Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being anticipated and prepared for may reverse and, second, the probability of such a scenario occurring remains fundamentally unknown. The implications of both problems for climate policy and for decision making have not been researched. It is premature to argue therefore that abrupt climate change - in the sense referred to here - imposes unacceptable costs on society or the world economy, represents a catastrophic impact of climate change or constitutes a dangerous change in climate that should be avoided at all reasonable cost. We conclude by examining the implications of this contention for future research and policy formation.

Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.

2014-12-01

Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes in land use pattern are robust.

Impact of the climate change on the performance of the steam and gas turbines in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fedotova (Kasilova, E. V.; Klimenko, V. V.; Klimenko, A. V.; Tereshin, A. G.

2017-11-01

The power generating industry is known to be vulnerable to the climate change due to the deteriorating efficiency of the power equipment. Effects for Russia are not completely understood yet. But they are already detected and will be more pronounced during the entire current century, as the Russian territory is one of the areas around the world where the climate change is developing most rapidly. An original climate model was applied to simulate the change of the air temperature across Russia for the twenty-first century. The results of the climate simulations were used to conduct impact analysis for the steam and gas turbine performance taking into account seasonal and spatial heterogeneity of the climate change across the Russian territory. Sensitivity of the turbines to the climatic conditions was simulated using both results of fundamental heat transfer research and empirical performance curves for the units being in operation nowadays. The integral effect of the climate change on the power generating industry was estimated. Some possible challenges and opportunities resulted from the climate change were identified.

Applying simple water-energy balance frameworks to predict the climate sensitivity of streamflow over the continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renner, M.; Bernhofer, C.

2012-08-01

The prediction of climate effects on terrestrial ecosystems and water resources is one of the major research questions in hydrology. Conceptual water-energy balance models can be used to gain a first order estimate of how long-term average streamflow is changing with a change in water and energy supply. A common framework for investigation of this question is based on the Budyko hypothesis, which links hydrological response to aridity. Recently, Renner et al. (2012) introduced the climate change impact hypothesis (CCUW), which is based on the assumption that the total efficiency of the catchment ecosystem to use the available water and energy for actual evapotranspiration remains constant even under climate changes. Here, we confront the climate sensitivity approaches (the Budyko approach of Roderick and Farquhar, 2011, and the CCUW) with data of more than 400 basins distributed over the continental United States. We first estimate the sensitivity of streamflow to changes in precipitation using long-term average data of the period 1949 to 2003. This provides a hydro-climatic status of the respective basins as well as their expected proportional effect to changes in climate. Next, we test the ability of both approaches to predict climate impacts on streamflow by splitting the data into two periods. We (i) analyse the long-term average changes in hydro-climatology and (ii) derive a statistical classification of potential climate and basin change impacts based on the significance of observed changes in runoff, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. Then we (iii) use the different climate sensitivity methods to predict the change in streamflow given the observed changes in water and energy supply and (iv) evaluate the predictions by (v) using the statistical classification scheme and (vi) a conceptual approach to separate the impacts of changes in climate from basin characteristics change on streamflow. This allows us to evaluate the observed changes in streamflow as well as to assess the impact of basin changes on the validity of climate sensitivity approaches. The apparent increase of streamflow of the majority of basins in the US is dominated by an increase in precipitation. It is further evident that impacts of changes in basin characteristics appear simultaneously with climate changes. There are coherent spatial patterns with catchments where basin changes compensate for climatic changes being dominant in the western and central parts of the US. A hot spot of basin changes leading to excessive runoff is found within the US Midwest. The impact of basin changes on the prediction is large and can be twice as much as the observed change signal. Although the CCUW and the Budyko approach yield similar predictions for most basins, the data of water-limited basins support the Budyko framework rather than the CCUW approach, which is known to be invalid under limiting climatic conditions.

Understanding the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow: a case study of the Soan River basin, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shahid, Muhammad; Cong, Zhentao; Zhang, Danwu

2017-09-01

Climate change and land use change are the two main factors that can alter the catchment hydrological process. The objective of this study is to evaluate the relative contribution of climate change and land use change to runoff change of the Soan River basin. The Mann-Kendal and the Pettit tests are used to find out the trends and change point in hydroclimatic variables during the period 1983-2012. Two different approaches including the abcd hydrological model and the Budyko framework are then used to quantify the impact of climate change and land use change on streamflow. The results from both methods are consistent and show that annual runoff has significantly decreased with a change point around 1997. The decrease in precipitation and increases in potential evapotranspiration contribute 68% of the detected change while the rest of the detected change is due to land use change. The land use change acquired from Landsat shows that during post-change period, the agriculture has increased in the Soan basin, which is in line with the positive contribution of land use change to runoff decrease. This study concludes that aforementioned methods performed well in quantifying the relative contribution of land use change and climate change to runoff change.

Implications of Climate Change on the Heat Budget of Lentic Systems Used for Power Station Cooling: Case Study Clinton Lake, Illinois.

PubMed

Quijano, Juan C; Jackson, P Ryan; Santacruz, Santiago; Morales, Viviana M; García, Marcelo H

2016-01-05

We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change-in particular higher air temperatures-on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling.

Implications of climate change on the heat budget of lentic systems used for power station cooling: Case study Clinton Lake, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Quijano, Juan C; Jackson, P. Ryan; Santacruz, Santiago; Morales, Viviana M; Garcia, Marcelo H.

2016-01-01

We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change--in particular higher air temperatures--on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling.

Water resources sensitivity to the isolated effects of land use, water demand and climate change under 2 degree global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bisselink, Berny; Bernhard, Jeroen; de Roo, Ad

2017-04-01

One of the key impacts of global change are the future water resources. These water resources are influenced by changes in land use (LU), water demand (WD) and climate change. Recent developments in scenario modelling opened new opportunities for an integrated assessment. However, for identifying water resource management strategies it is helpful to focus on the isolated effects of possible changes in LU, WD and climate that may occur in the near future. In this work, we quantify the isolated contribution of LU, WD and climate to the integrated total water resources assuming a linear model behavior. An ensemble of five EURO-CORDEX RCP8.5 climate projections for the 31-year periods centered on the year of exceeding the global-mean temperature of 2 degree is used to drive the fully distributed hydrological model LISFLOOD for multiple river catchments in Europe. The JRC's Land Use Modelling Platform LUISA was used to obtain a detailed pan-European reference land use scenario until 2050. Water demand is estimated based on socio-economic (GDP, population estimates etc.), land use and climate projections as well. For each climate projection, four model runs have been performed including an integrated (LU, WD and climate) simulation and other three simulations to isolate the effect of LU, WD and climate. Changes relative to the baseline in terms of water resources indicators of the ensemble means of the 2 degree warming period and their associated uncertainties will reveal the integrated and isolated effect of LU, WD and climate change on water resources.

Combining charcoal and elemental black carbon analysis in sedimentary archives: Implications for past fire regimes, the pyrogenic carbon cycle, and the human-climate interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thevenon, Florian; Williamson, David; Bard, Edouard; Anselmetti, Flavio S.; Beaufort, Luc; Cachier, Hélène

2010-07-01

This paper addresses the quantification of combustion-derived products in oceanic and continental sediments by optical and chemical approaches, and the interest of combining such methods for reconstructing past biomass burning activity and the pyrogenic carbon cycle. In such context, the dark particles > 0.2 µm 2 remaining after the partial digestion of organic matter are optically counted by automated image analysis and defined as charcoal, while the elemental carbon remaining after thermal and chemical oxidative treatments is quantified as black carbon (BC). The obtained pyrogenic carbon records from three sediment core-based case studies, (i) the Late Pleistocene equatorial Pacific Ocean, (ii) the mid-Holocene European Lake Lucerne, and (iii) the Late Holocene African Lake Masoko, are interpreted as proxy records of regional transportation mechanisms and biomass burning activities. The results show that the burial of dark carbon-rich particles in the 360 kyr-long record from the west equatorial Pacific is controlled by the combination of sea-level changes and low-latitude atmospheric circulation patterns (summer monsoon dynamics). However, the three fold increases in charcoal and BC sediment influxes between 53-43 and 12-10 kyr BP suggest that major shifts in fire activity occur synchronously with human colonization in the Indo/Pacific region. The coarse charcoal distribution from a 7.2 kyr record from Lake Lucerne in Switzerland closely matches the regional timing of major technical, land-use, and socio-economic changes during the Neolithic (between ca. 5.7 and 5.2 kyr BP and 4.9-4.5 kyr BP), the Bronze and Iron Ages (at ca. 3.3 and 2.4 kyr BP, respectively), and the industrialization (after AD 1838), pointing to the key impact of human activities on the sources, transportation processes and reservoirs of refractory carbon during the Holocene. In the tropical Masoko maar lake in Tanzania, where charcoal and BC records are highly sensitive to the local climate and environment, surface runoffs from forested areas and/or aerial transportation over short distances are also important sources for detrital charred particles. However, this 4.3 kyr-long record exhibits a major increase in charcoal and BC sediment influxes between 1.8 and 0.6 kyr BP, synchronously with the regional extent of Late Iron Age and agricultural innovations. Therefore, in both marine and terrestrial depositional environments, the climate- and vegetation-controlled fire regimes appear to be strongly associated to societal changes, or directly affected by human practices. In fact, the anthropogenic effect associated to past human activities (e.g. settlement, agriculture, and metallurgy) has temporarily at least tripled the emissions of pyrogenic carbon in the environment. However, the data from the three Late Pleistocene to Holocene sequences also show that the redistribution of fossil particles by runoff and erosion processes is a significant source of pyrogenic carbon that should be understood as a prerequisite for interpreting sedimentary records of biomass burning.

Estimation of climate change impact on dead fuel moisture at local scale by using weather generators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellizzaro, Grazia; Bortolu, Sara; Dubrovsky, Martin; Arca, Bachisio; Ventura, Andrea; Duce, Pierpaolo

2015-04-01

The moisture content of dead fuel is an important variable in fire ignition and fire propagation. Moisture exchange in dead materials is controlled by physical processes, and is clearly dependent on atmospheric changes. According to projections of future climate in Southern Europe, changes in temperature, precipitation and extreme events are expected. More prolonged drought seasons could influence fuel moisture content and, consequently, the number of days characterized by high ignition danger in Mediterranean ecosystems. The low resolution of the climate data provided by the general circulation models (GCMs) represents a limitation for evaluating climate change impacts at local scale. For this reason, the climate research community has called to develop appropriate downscaling techniques. One of the downscaling approaches, which transform the raw outputs from the climate models (GCMs or RCMs) into data with more realistic structure, is based on linking a stochastic weather generator with the climate model outputs. Weather generators linked to climate change scenarios can therefore be used to create synthetic weather series (air temperature and relative humidity, wind speed and precipitation) representing present and future climates at local scale. The main aims of this work are to identify useful tools to determine potential impacts of expected climate change on dead fuel status in Mediterranean shrubland and, in particular, to estimate the effect of climate changes on the number of days characterized by critical values of dead fuel moisture. Measurements of dead fuel moisture content (FMC) in Mediterranean shrubland were performed by using humidity sensors in North Western Sardinia (Italy) for six years. Meteorological variables were also recorded. Data were used to determine the accuracy of the Canadian Fine Fuels Moisture Code (FFM code) in modelling moisture dynamics of dead fuel in Mediterranean vegetation. Critical threshold values of FFM code for Mediterranean climate were identified by percentile analysis, and new fuel moisture code classes were also defined. A stochastic weather generator (M&Rfi), linked to climate change scenarios derived from 17 available General Circulation Models (GCMs), was used to produce synthetic weather series, representing present and future climates, for four selected sites located in North Western Sardinia, Italy. The number of days with critical FFM code values for present and future climate were calculated and the potential impact of future climate change was analysed.

Multiple dimensions of climate change and their implications for biodiversity.

PubMed

Garcia, Raquel A; Cabeza, Mar; Rahbek, Carsten; Araújo, Miguel B

2014-05-02

The 21st century is projected to witness unprecedented climatic changes, with greater warming often reported for high latitudes. Yet, climate change can be measured in a variety of ways, reflecting distinct dimensions of change with unequal spatial patterns across the world. Polar climates are projected to not only warm, but also to shrink in area. By contrast, today's hot and arid climates are expected to expand worldwide and to reach climate states with no current analog. Although rarely appreciated in combination, these multiple dimensions of change convey complementary information. We review existing climate change metrics and discuss how they relate to threats and opportunities for biodiversity. Interpreting climate change metrics is particularly useful for unknown or poorly described species, which represent most of Earth's biodiversity.

Climate change in the Pacific - is it real or not?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Yuriy

2013-04-01

In this presentation, novel approaches and new ideas for students and young researchers to appreciate the importance of climate science are discussed. These approaches have been applied through conducting a number of training workshops in the Pacific Island Countries and teaching a course on climate change international law and climate change science at the University of the South Pacific (USP) - the first course on this type in the Pacific. Particular focus of this presentation is on broadening students' experience with application of web-based information tools for analysis of climatic extremes and natural hazards such as tropical cyclones. Over the past few years, significant efforts of Australian climate scientists have been dedicated to improving understanding of climate in the Pacific through the International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (the Australian Government Initiative to assist with high priority climate adaptation needs in vulnerable countries in the Asia-Pacific region). The first comprehensive scientific report about the Pacific climate has been published in 2011, as an outcome of the Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP). A range of web-based information tools such as the Pacific Tropical Cyclone Data Portal, the Pacific Climate Change Data Portal and the Pacific Seasonal Climate Prediction Portal has been also developed through the PCCSP and the Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program. Currently, further advancement in seasonal climate prediction science and developing enhanced software tools for the Pacific is undertaken through the Theme 1 of the Pacific Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) Program. This new scientific knowledge needs to be transferred to students to provide them with true information about climate change and its impact on the Pacific Island Countries. Teachers and educators need their knowledge-base regularly updated and tools that will help their students critically evaluate information transmitted via the mass media. This is particularly important when educators present to students cutting edge science knowledge on climate change. Climate change skeptics through mass media attack climate scientists and dismiss their findings about magnitude of climate change. A novel approach implemented in our training workshops and teaching courses gives students practical hands on experience in examining climate data using the developed web-based information tools. Using the tools, students can examine climate of the Pacific Island Countries, derive trends in climate variables such as temperature and rainfall and make their own conclusions. An open forum "Is climate change real or not?" has also been included as an integral part of these workshops and teaching, giving an opportunity for students to present their findings. They have also been asked to provide examples of observed change in the environment in their countries which may be related to climate change. Tropical cyclones are the most destructive severe weather events in the Pacific which regularly affect countries in the region. Understanding importance of updating knowledge about cyclones, extensive training in using the Pacific Tropical Cyclone Data Portal (http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/tracks/) has also been provided. Using this sophisticated web-based tool, students can learn about occurrences of cyclones in waters around their countries and over the whole Pacific. Positive feedback from university students and participants of training workshops has been obtained and this approach may be recommended for educators to include in their courses. Acknowledgement The research discussed in this paper was conducted through the PASAP, PCCSP and PACCSAP supported by the AusAID and Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency and delivered by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO.

A new economic assessment index for the impact of climate change on grain yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Wenjie; Chou, Jieming; Feng, Guolin

2007-03-01

The impact of climate change on agriculture has received wide attention by the scientific community. This paper studies how to assess the grain yield impact of climate change, according to the climate change over a long time period in the future as predicted by a climate system model. The application of the concept of a traditional “yield impact of meteorological factor (YIMF)” or “yield impact of weather factor” to the grain yield assessment of a decadal or even a longer timescale would be suffocated at the outset because the YIMF is for studying the phenomenon on an interannual timescale, and it is difficult to distinguish between the trend caused by climate change and the one resulting from changes in non-climatic factors. Therefore, the concept of the yield impact of climatic change (YICC), which is defined as the difference in the per unit area yields (PUAY) of a grain crop under a changing and an envisaged invariant climate conditions, is presented in this paper to assess the impact of global climate change on grain yields. The climatic factor has been introduced into the renowned economic Cobb-Douglas model, yielding a quantitative assessment method of YICC using real data. The method has been tested using the historical data of Northeast China, and the results show that it has an encouraging application outlook.

Knowledge and perceptions about the health impact of climate change among health sciences students in Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Nigatu, Andualem S; Asamoah, Benedict O; Kloos, Helmut

2014-06-11

Climate change affects human health in various ways. Health planners and policy makers are increasingly addressing potential health impacts of climate change. Ethiopia is vulnerable to these impacts. Assessing students' knowledge, understanding and perception about the health impact of climate change may promote educational endeavors to increase awareness of health impacts linked to climate change and to facilitate interventions. A cross-sectional study using a questionnaire was carried out among the health science students at Haramaya University. Quantitative methods were used to analyze the results. Over three quarters of the students were aware of health consequences of climate change, with slightly higher rates in females than males and a range from 60.7% (pharmacy students) to 100% (environmental health and post-graduate public health students). Electronic mass media was reportedly the major source of information but almost all (87.7%) students stated that their knowledge was insufficient to fully understand the public health impacts of climate change. Students who knew about climate change were more likely to perceive it as a serious health threat than those who were unaware of these impacts [OR: 17.8, 95% CI: 8.8-32.1] and also considered their departments to be concerned about climate change (OR: 7.3, 95% CI: 2.8-18.8), a perception that was also significantly more common among students who obtained their information from the electronic mass media and schools (p < 0.05). Using electronic mass media was also significantly associated with knowledge about the health impacts of climate change. Health sciences students at Haramaya University may benefit from a more comprehensive curriculum on climate change and its impacts on health.

Knowledge and perceptions about the health impact of climate change among health sciences students in Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Climate change affects human health in various ways. Health planners and policy makers are increasingly addressing potential health impacts of climate change. Ethiopia is vulnerable to these impacts. Assessing students’ knowledge, understanding and perception about the health impact of climate change may promote educational endeavors to increase awareness of health impacts linked to climate change and to facilitate interventions. Methods A cross-sectional study using a questionnaire was carried out among the health science students at Haramaya University. Quantitative methods were used to analyze the results. Result Over three quarters of the students were aware of health consequences of climate change, with slightly higher rates in females than males and a range from 60.7% (pharmacy students) to 100% (environmental health and post-graduate public health students). Electronic mass media was reportedly the major source of information but almost all (87.7%) students stated that their knowledge was insufficient to fully understand the public health impacts of climate change. Students who knew about climate change were more likely to perceive it as a serious health threat than those who were unaware of these impacts [OR: 17.8, 95% CI: 8.8-32.1] and also considered their departments to be concerned about climate change (OR: 7.3, 95% CI: 2.8-18.8), a perception that was also significantly more common among students who obtained their information from the electronic mass media and schools (p < 0.05). Using electronic mass media was also significantly associated with knowledge about the health impacts of climate change. Conclusion Health sciences students at Haramaya University may benefit from a more comprehensive curriculum on climate change and its impacts on health. PMID:24916631

Variation in Estimated Ozone-Related Health Impacts of Climate Change due to Modeling Choices and Assumptions

PubMed Central

Post, Ellen S.; Grambsch, Anne; Weaver, Chris; Morefield, Philip; Leung, Lai-Yung; Nolte, Christopher G.; Adams, Peter; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Zhu, Jin-Hong; Mahoney, Hardee

2012-01-01

Background: Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices. Objectives: Our goal was to assess the sensitivity of estimated ozone-related human health impacts of climate change to key modeling choices. Methods: Our analysis included seven modeling systems in which a climate change model is linked to an air quality model, five population projections, and multiple concentration–response functions. Using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), we estimated future ozone (O3)-related health effects in the United States attributable to simulated climate change between the years 2000 and approximately 2050, given each combination of modeling choices. Health effects and concentration–response functions were chosen to match those used in the U.S. EPA’s 2008 Regulatory Impact Analysis of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O3. Results: Different combinations of methodological choices produced a range of estimates of national O3-related mortality from roughly 600 deaths avoided as a result of climate change to 2,500 deaths attributable to climate change (although the large majority produced increases in mortality). The choice of the climate change and the air quality model reflected the greatest source of uncertainty, with the other modeling choices having lesser but still substantial effects. Conclusions: Our results highlight the need to use an ensemble approach, instead of relying on any one set of modeling choices, to assess the potential risks associated with O3-related human health effects resulting from climate change. PMID:22796531

Dark matter and alternative recipes for the missing mass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tortora, Crescenzo; Jetzer, Philippe; Napolitano, Nicola R.

2012-03-01

Within the standard cosmological scenario the Universe is found to be filled by obscure components (dark matter and dark energy) for ~ 95% of its energy budget. In particular, almost all the matter content in the Universe is given by dark matter, which dominates the mass budget and drives the dynamics of galaxies and clusters of galaxies. Unfortunately, dark matter and dark energy have not been detected and no direct or indirected observations have allowed to prove their existence and amount. For this reason, some authors have suggested that a modification of Einstein Relativity or the change of the Newton's dynamics law (within a relativistic and classical framework, respectively) could allow to replace these unobserved components. We will start discussing the role of dark matter in the early-type galaxies, mainly in their central regions, investigating how its content changes as a function of the mass and the size of each galaxy and few considerations about the stellar Initial mass function have been made. In the second part of the paper we have described, as examples, some ways to overcome the dark matter hypothesis, by fitting to the observations the modified dynamics coming out from general relativistic extended theories and the MOdyfled Newtonian dynamics (MOND).

Acclimation of light and dark respiration to experimental and seasonal warming are mediated by changes in leaf nitrogen in Eucalyptus globulus.

PubMed

Crous, K Y; Wallin, G; Atkin, O K; Uddling, J; Af Ekenstam, A

2017-08-01

Quantifying the adjustments of leaf respiration in response to seasonal temperature variation and climate warming is crucial because carbon loss from vegetation is a large but uncertain part of the global carbon cycle. We grew fast-growing Eucalyptus globulus Labill. trees exposed to +3 °C warming and elevated CO2 in 10-m tall whole-tree chambers and measured the temperature responses of leaf mitochondrial respiration, both in light (RLight) and in darkness (RDark), over a 20-40 °C temperature range and during two different seasons. RLight was assessed using the Laisk method. Respiration rates measured at a standard temperature (25 °C - R25) were higher in warm-grown trees and in the warm season, related to higher total leaf nitrogen (N) investment with higher temperatures (both experimental and seasonal), indicating that leaf N concentrations modulated the respiratory capacity to changes in temperature. Once differences in leaf N were accounted for, there were no differences in R25 but the Q10 (i.e., short-term temperature sensitivity) was higher in late summer compared with early spring. The variation in RLight between experimental treatments and seasons was positively correlated with carboxylation capacity and photorespiration. RLight was less responsive to short-term changes in temperature than RDark, as shown by a lower Q10 in RLight compared with RDark. The overall light inhibition of R was ∼40%. Our results highlight the dynamic nature of leaf respiration to temperature variation and that the responses of RLight do not simply mirror those of RDark. Therefore, it is important not to assume that RLight is the same as RDark in ecosystem models, as doing so may lead to large errors in predicting plant CO2 release and productivity. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Shift of ERG B-Wave Induced by Hours' Dark Exposure in Rodents.

PubMed

Li, Dake; Fang, Qi; Yu, Hongbo

2016-01-01

Dark adaptation can induce a rapid functional shift in the retina, and after that, the retinal function is believed to remain stable during the continuous dark exposure. However, we found that electroretinograms (ERG) b-waves gradually shifted during 24 hours' dark exposure in rodents. Detailed experiments were designed to explore this non-classical dark adaptation. In vivo ERG recording in adult and developing rodents after light manipulations. We revealed a five-fold decrease in ERG b-waves in adult rats that were dark exposed for 24 hours. The ERG b-waves significantly increased within the first hour's dark exposure, but after that decreased continuously and finally attained steady state after 1 day's dark exposure. After 3 repetitive, 10 minutes' light exposure, the dark exposed rats fully recovered. This recovery effect was eye-specific, and light exposure to one eye could not restore the ERGs in the non-exposed eye. The prolonged dark exposure-induced functional shift was also reflected in the down-regulation on the amplitude of intensity-ERG response curve, but the dynamic range of the responsive light intensity remained largely stable. Furthermore, the ERG b-wave shifts occurred in and beyond classical critical period, and in both rats and mice. Importantly, when ERG b-wave greatly shifted, the amplitude of ERG a-wave did not change significantly after the prolonged dark exposure. This rapid age-independent ERG change demonstrates a generally existing functional shift in the retina, which is at the entry level of visual system.

Weathercasters' views on climate change: A state-of-the-community review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timm, K.; Perkins, D. R., IV; Myers, T.; Maibach, E.

2017-12-01

As a community of practice, TV weathercasters are positioned at a crucial intersection between climate scientists and the general public. Weathercasters have the opportunity to use their scientific training and public communication skills to educate viewers about climate change. Though early research found high rates of skepticism about climate change among TV weathercasters, the most current and comprehensive analysis to date of TV weathercasters' views on climate change suggests that their views have evolved in several important ways. Surveys of all working TV weathercasters in the United States conducted in 2015, 2016 and 2017 show that the weathercaster community now holds views of climate change that are similar to that of climate scientists—in particular, that human-caused climate change is happening today and it is impacting American communities in many harmful ways. Ninety-five percent of TV weathercasters now believe that climate change (as defined by the American Meteorological Society) is occurring, and certainty in that belief has grown. Nearly 50% of TV weathercasters believe the climate change that has occurred over the past 50 years has been caused mostly (34%), or largely to entirely (15%), by human activity. Additionally, surveys suggest that weathercasters tend to underestimate the scientific consensus on climate change. Weathercasters, on average, estimate 75% of climate scientists believe humans have caused the majority of recent climate change as compared to the actual value of 97%. Despite convergence in weathercasters' climate change beliefs, this analysis suggests that opportunities remain for building climate literacy among America's TV weathercasters. Increasing this personal knowledge of climate change is one of several factors that empower weathercasters to become public climate educators to increase understanding of climate change causes in communities around the country.

Mated Drosophila melanogaster females consume more amino acids during the dark phase

PubMed Central

Uchizono, Shun; Tabuki, Yumi; Kawaguchi, Natsumi; Tanimura, Teiichi; Itoh, Taichi Q.

2017-01-01

To maintain homeostasis, animals must ingest appropriate quantities, determined by their internal nutritional state, of suitable nutrients. In the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster, an amino acid deficit induces a specific appetite for amino acids and thus results in their increased consumption. Although multiple processes of physiology, metabolism, and behavior are under circadian control in many organisms, it is unclear whether the circadian clock also modulates such motivated behavior driven by an internal need. Differences in levels of amino acid consumption by flies between the light and dark phases of the day:night cycle were examined using a capillary feeder assay following amino acid deprivation. Female flies exhibited increased consumption of amino acids during the dark phase compared with the light phase. Investigation of mutants lacking a functional period gene (per0), a well-characterized clock gene in Drosophila, found no difference between the light and dark phases in amino acid consumption by per0 flies. Furthermore, increased consumption of amino acids during the dark phase was observed in mated but not in virgin females, which strongly suggested that mating is involved in the rhythmic modulation of amino acid intake. Egg production, which is induced by mating, did not affect the rhythmic change in amino acid consumption, although egg-laying behavior showed a per0-dependent change in rhythm. Elevated consumption of amino acids during the dark phase was partly induced by the action of a seminal protein, sex peptide (SP), on the sex peptide receptor (SPR) in females. Moreover, we showed that the increased consumption of amino acids during the dark phase is induced in mated females independently of their internal level of amino acids. These results suggest that a post-mating SP/SPR signal elevates amino acid consumption during the dark phase via the circadian clock. PMID:28241073

Mated Drosophila melanogaster females consume more amino acids during the dark phase.

PubMed

Uchizono, Shun; Tabuki, Yumi; Kawaguchi, Natsumi; Tanimura, Teiichi; Itoh, Taichi Q

2017-01-01

To maintain homeostasis, animals must ingest appropriate quantities, determined by their internal nutritional state, of suitable nutrients. In the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster, an amino acid deficit induces a specific appetite for amino acids and thus results in their increased consumption. Although multiple processes of physiology, metabolism, and behavior are under circadian control in many organisms, it is unclear whether the circadian clock also modulates such motivated behavior driven by an internal need. Differences in levels of amino acid consumption by flies between the light and dark phases of the day:night cycle were examined using a capillary feeder assay following amino acid deprivation. Female flies exhibited increased consumption of amino acids during the dark phase compared with the light phase. Investigation of mutants lacking a functional period gene (per0), a well-characterized clock gene in Drosophila, found no difference between the light and dark phases in amino acid consumption by per0 flies. Furthermore, increased consumption of amino acids during the dark phase was observed in mated but not in virgin females, which strongly suggested that mating is involved in the rhythmic modulation of amino acid intake. Egg production, which is induced by mating, did not affect the rhythmic change in amino acid consumption, although egg-laying behavior showed a per0-dependent change in rhythm. Elevated consumption of amino acids during the dark phase was partly induced by the action of a seminal protein, sex peptide (SP), on the sex peptide receptor (SPR) in females. Moreover, we showed that the increased consumption of amino acids during the dark phase is induced in mated females independently of their internal level of amino acids. These results suggest that a post-mating SP/SPR signal elevates amino acid consumption during the dark phase via the circadian clock.

Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.

PubMed

Baker, David J; Hartley, Andrew J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

2016-07-01

Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sirunyan, Albert M; et al.

A search for dark matter is conducted in events with large missing transverse momentum and a hadronically decaying, Lorentz-boosted top quark. This study is performed using proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, in data recorded by the CMS detector in 2016 at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36 fbmore » $$^{-1}$$. New substructure techniques, including the novel use of energy correlation functions, are utilized to identify the decay products of the top quark. With no significant deviations observed from predictions of the standard model, limits are placed on the production of new heavy bosons coupling to dark matter particles. For a scenario with purely vector-like or purely axial-vector-like flavor changing neutral currents, mediator masses between 0.20 and 1.75 TeV are excluded at 95% confidence level, given a sufficiently small dark matter mass. Scalar resonances decaying into a top quark and a dark matter fermion are excluded for masses below 3.4 TeV, assuming a dark matter mass of 100 GeV.« less

Deducing Climatic Elasticity to Assess Projected Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow Change across China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jianyu; Zhang, Qiang; Zhang, Yongqiang; Chen, Xi; Li, Jianfeng; Aryal, Santosh K.

2017-10-01

Climatic elasticity has been widely applied to assess streamflow responses to climate changes. To fully assess impacts of climate under global warming on streamflow and reduce the error and uncertainty from various control variables, we develop a four-parameter (precipitation, catchment characteristics n, and maximum and minimum temperatures) climatic elasticity method named PnT, based on the widely used Budyko framework and simplified Makkink equation. We use this method to carry out the first comprehensive evaluation of the streamflow response to potential climate change for 372 widely spread catchments in China. The PnT climatic elasticity was first evaluated for a period 1980-2000, and then used to evaluate streamflow change response to climate change based on 12 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The results show that (1) the PnT climatic elasticity method is reliable; (2) projected increasing streamflow takes place in more than 60% of the selected catchments, with mean increments of 9% and 15.4% under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively; and (3) uncertainties in the projected streamflow are considerable in several regions, such as the Pearl River and Yellow River, with more than 40% of the selected catchments showing inconsistent change directions. Our results can help Chinese policy makers to manage and plan water resources more effectively, and the PnT climatic elasticity should be applied to other parts of the world.

Predicted changes in climatic niche and climate refugia of conservation priority salamander species in the northeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sutton, William B.; Barrett, Kyle; Moody, Allison T.; Loftin, Cynthia S.; deMaynadier, Phillip G.; Nanjappa, Priya

2015-01-01

Global climate change represents one of the most extensive and pervasive threats to wildlife populations. Amphibians, specifically salamanders, are particularly susceptible to the effects of changing climates due to their restrictive physiological requirements and low vagility; however, little is known about which landscapes and species are vulnerable to climate change. Our study objectives included, (1) evaluating species-specific predictions (based on 2050 climate projections) and vulnerabilities to climate change and (2) using collective species responses to identify areas of climate refugia for conservation priority salamanders in the northeastern United States. All evaluated salamander species were projected to lose a portion of their climatic niche. Averaged projected losses ranged from 3%–100% for individual species, with the Cow Knob Salamander (Plethodon punctatus), Cheat Mountain Salamander (Plethodon nettingi), Shenandoah Mountain Salamander (Plethodon virginia), Mabee’s Salamander (Ambystoma mabeei), and Streamside Salamander (Ambystoma barbouri) predicted to lose at least 97% of their landscape-scale climatic niche. The Western Allegheny Plateau was predicted to lose the greatest salamander climate refugia richness (i.e., number of species with a climatically-suitable niche in a landscape patch), whereas the Central Appalachians provided refugia for the greatest number of species during current and projected climate scenarios. Our results can be used to identify species and landscapes that are likely to be further affected by climate change and potentially resilient habitats that will provide consistent climatic conditions in the face of environmental change.

Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

2013-01-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Supporting Analyses for National Climate Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nemani, R. R.; Thrasher, B. L.; Wang, W.; Lee, T. J.; Melton, F. S.; Dungan, J. L.; Michaelis, A.

2015-12-01

The NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) is a collaborative computing platform that has been developed with the objective of bringing scientists together with the software tools, massive global datasets, and supercomputing resources necessary to accelerate research in Earth systems science and global change. NEX supports several research projects that are closely related with the National Climate Assessment including the generation of high-resolution climate projections, identification of trends and extremes in climate variables and the evaluation of their impacts on regional carbon/water cycles and biodiversity, the development of land-use management and adaptation strategies for climate-change scenarios, and even the exploration of climate mitigation through geo-engineering. Scientists also use the large collection of satellite data on NEX to conduct research on quantifying spatial and temporal changes in land surface processes in response to climate and land-cover-land-use changes. Researchers, leveraging NEX's massive compute/storage resources, have used statistical techniques to downscale the coarse-resolution CMIP5 projections to fulfill the demands of the community for a wide range of climate change impact analyses. The DCP-30 (Downscaled Climate Projections at 30 arcsecond) for the conterminous US at monthly, ~1km resolution and the GDDP (Global Daily Downscaled Projections) for the entire world at daily, 25km resolution are now widely used in climate research and applications, as well as for communicating climate change. In order to serve a broader community, the NEX team in collaboration with Amazon, Inc, created the OpenNEX platform. OpenNEX provides ready access to NEX data holdings, including the NEX-DCP30 and GDDP datasets along with a number of pertinent analysis tools and workflows on the AWS infrastructure in the form of publicly available, self contained, fully functional Amazon Machine Images (AMI's) for anyone interested in global climate change.

Predictors of public climate change awareness and risk perception around the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Tien Ming; Markowitz, Ezra M.; Howe, Peter D.; Ko, Chia-Ying; Leiserowitz, Anthony A.

2015-11-01

Climate change is a threat to human societies and natural ecosystems, yet public opinion research finds that public awareness and concern vary greatly. Here, using an unprecedented survey of 119 countries, we determine the relative influence of socio-demographic characteristics, geography, perceived well-being, and beliefs on public climate change awareness and risk perceptions at national scales. Worldwide, educational attainment is the single strongest predictor of climate change awareness. Understanding the anthropogenic cause of climate change is the strongest predictor of climate change risk perceptions, particularly in Latin America and Europe, whereas perception of local temperature change is the strongest predictor in many African and Asian countries. However, other key factors associated with public awareness and risk perceptions highlight the need to develop tailored climate communication strategies for individual nations. The results suggest that improving basic education, climate literacy, and public understanding of the local dimensions of climate change are vital to public engagement and support for climate action.

Climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species.

PubMed

Morueta-Holme, Naia; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2010-04-29

Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species. We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070-2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming. Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and highlight the fact that assisted migration has potential as a conservation strategy for species threatened by climate change.

Climate Change Risks and Conservation Implications for a Threatened Small-Range Mammal Species

PubMed Central

Morueta-Holme, Naia; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2010-01-01

Background Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species. Methodology/Principal Findings We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070–2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming. Conclusions/Significance Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and highlight the fact that assisted migration has potential as a conservation strategy for species threatened by climate change. PMID:20454451

Specific dietary preferences are linked to differing gut microbial metabolic activity in response to dark chocolate intake.

PubMed

Martin, Francois-Pierre J; Montoliu, Ivan; Nagy, Kornél; Moco, Sofia; Collino, Sebastiano; Guy, Philippe; Redeuil, Karine; Scherer, Max; Rezzi, Serge; Kochhar, Sunil

2012-12-07

Systems biology approaches are providing novel insights into the role of nutrition for the management of health and disease. In the present study, we investigated if dietary preference for dark chocolate in healthy subjects may lead to different metabolic response to daily chocolate consumption. Using NMR- and MS-based metabolic profiling of blood plasma and urine, we monitored the metabolic response of 10 participants stratified as chocolate desiring and eating regularly dark chocolate (CD) and 10 participants stratified as chocolate indifferent and eating rarely dark chocolate (CI) to a daily consumption of 50 g of dark chocolate as part of a standardized diet over a one week period. We demonstrated that preference for chocolate leads to different metabolic response to chocolate consumption. Daily intake of dark chocolate significantly increased HDL cholesterol by 6% and decreased polyunsaturated acyl ether phospholipids. Dark chocolate intake could also induce an improvement in the metabolism of long chain fatty acid, as noted by a compositional change in plasma fatty acyl carnitines. Moreover, a relationship between regular long-term dietary exposure to a small amount of dark chocolate, gut microbiota, and phenolics was highlighted, providing novel insights into biological processes associated with cocoa bioactives.

Evil by default: the origins of dark visions.

PubMed

Nowinski, Joseph

2004-05-01

The growing body of literature on transformational change reflects an increasing interest among professionals in understanding epiphany and visionary change. However, we typically assume that such quantum changes are positive and pro-social ones. It is equally possible for an individual to lead a life that is organized around a motivating vision that is destructive to self, others, or both. The author examines the phenomenon of "dark visions," offering some hypotheses as to their origins. The article also offers strategies to minimize the number of individuals who choose dark visions, with all their unfortunate consequences. Copyright 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A computer-aided diagnosis system to detect pathologies in temporal subtraction images of chest radiographs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Looper, Jared; Harrison, Melanie; Armato, Samuel G.

2016-03-01

Radiologists often compare sequential radiographs to identify areas of pathologic change; however, this process is prone to error, as human anatomy can obscure the regions of change, causing the radiologists to overlook pathology. Temporal subtraction (TS) images can provide enhanced visualization of regions of change in sequential radiographs and allow radiologists to better detect areas of change in radiographs. Not all areas of change shown in TS images, however, are actual pathology. The purpose of this study was to create a computer-aided diagnostic (CAD) system that identifies which regions of change are caused by pathology and which are caused by misregistration of the radiographs used to create the TS image. The dataset used in this study contained 120 images with 74 pathologic regions on 54 images outlined by an experienced radiologist. High and low ("light" and "dark") gray-level candidate regions were extracted from the images using gray-level thresholding. Then, sampling techniques were used to address the class imbalance problem between "true" and "false" candidate regions. Next, the datasets of light candidate regions, dark candidate regions, and the combined set of light and dark candidate regions were used as training and testing data for classifiers by using five-fold cross validation. Of the classifiers tested (support vector machines, discriminant analyses, logistic regression, and k-nearest neighbors), the support vector machine on the combined candidates using synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE) performed best with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value of 0.85, a sensitivity of 85%, and a specificity of 84%.

The polar layered deposits on Mars: Inference from thermal inertia modeling and geologic studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herkenhoff, K. E.

1992-01-01

It is widely believed that the Martian polar layered deposits record climate variations over at least the last 10 to 100 m.y., but the details of the processes involved and their relative roles in layer formation and evolution remain obscure. Weathering of the Martian layered deposits by sublimation of water ice can account for the thermal inertias, water vapor abundances, and geologic relationships observed in the Martian polar regions. The nonvolatile components of the layered deposits appears to consist mainly of bright red dust, with small amounts of dark dust. Dark dust, perhaps similar to the magnetic material found at the Viking Lander sites, may preferentially form filamentary residue particles upon weathering of the deposits. Once eroded, these particles may saltate to form the dark dunes found in both polar regions. This scenario for the origin and evolution of the dark material within the polar layered deposits is consistent with the available imaging and thermal data. Further experimental measurements of the thermophysical properties of magnetite and maghemite under Martian conditions are needed to better test this hypothesis.

How well are the climate indices related to the GRACE-observed total water storage changes in China?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Devaraju, B.; Vishwakarma, B.; Sneeuw, N. J.

2017-12-01

The fresh water availability over land masses is changing rapidly under the influence of climate change and human intervention. In order to manage our water resources and plan for a better future, we need to demarcate the role of climate change. The total water storage change in a region can be obtained from the GRACE satellite mission. On the other hand, many climate change indicators, for example ENSO, are derived from sea surface temperature. In this contribution we investigate the relationship between the total water storage change over China with the climate indices using statistical time-series decomposition techniques, such as Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess (STL), Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). The anomalies in climate variables, such as sea surface temperature, are responsible for anomalous precipitation and thus an anomalous total water storage change over land. Therefore, it is imperative that we use a GRACE product that can capture anomalous water storage changes with unprecedented accuracy. Since filtering decreases the sensitivity of GRACE products substantially, we use the data-driven method of deviation for recovering the signal lost due to filtering. To this end, we are able to obtain the spatial fingerprint of individual climate index on total water storage change observed over China.

The impacts of land use, radiative forcing, and biological changes on regional climate in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dairaku, K.; Pielke, R. A., Sr.

2013-12-01

Because regional responses of surface hydrological and biogeochemical changes are particularly complex, it is necessary to develop assessment tools for regional scale adaptation to climate. We developed a dynamical downscaling method using the regional climate model (NIED-RAMS) over Japan. The NIED-RAMS model includes a plant model that considers biological processes, the General Energy and Mass Transfer Model (GEMTM) which adds spatial resolution to accurately assess critical interactions within the regional climate system for vulnerability assessments to climate change. We digitalized a potential vegetation map that formerly existed only on paper into Geographic Information System data. It quantified information on the reduction of green spaces and the expansion of urban and agricultural areas in Japan. We conducted regional climate sensitivity experiments of land use and land cover (LULC) change, radiative forcing, and biological effects by using the NIED-RAMS with horizontal grid spacing of 20 km. We investigated regional climate responses in Japan for three experimental scenarios: 1. land use and land cover is changed from current to potential vegetation; 2. radiative forcing is changed from 1 x CO2 to 2 x CO2; and 3. biological CO2 partial pressures in plants are doubled. The experiments show good accuracy in reproducing the surface air temperature and precipitation. The experiments indicate the distinct change of hydrological cycles in various aspects due to anthropogenic LULC change, radiative forcing, and biological effects. The relative impacts of those changes are discussed and compared. Acknowledgments This study was conducted as part of the research subject "Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Water Hazard Assessed Using Regional Climate Scenarios in the Tokyo Region' (National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention; PI: Koji Dairaku) of Research Program on Climate Change Adaptation (RECCA), and was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

2015-01-01

Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in…

Development of an Empirically-Based Conditional Learning Progression for Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Breslyn, Wayne; Drewes, Andrea; McGinnis, J. Randy; Hestness, Emily; Mouza, Chrystalla

2017-01-01

Climate change encompasses a broad and complex set of concepts that is often challenging for students and educators. Using a learning progressions (LPs) knowledge system, we developed a LP that described student learning of climate change. In this exploratory study, we present findings from written assessments of climate change (n = 294) and…

Beyond Reduction: Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Universities and Colleges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Owen, Rochelle; Fisher, Erica; McKenzie, Kyle

2013-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to outline a unique six-step process for the inclusion of climate change adaption goals and strategies in a University Climate Change Plan. Design/methodology/approach: A mixed-method approach was used to gather data on campus climate change vulnerabilities and adaption strategies. A literature review…

Climate Change and the Canadian Higher Education System: An Institutional Policy Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henderson, Joseph; Bieler, Andrew; McKenzie, Marcia

2017-01-01

Climate change is a pressing concern. Higher education can address the challenge, but systematic analyses of climate change in education policy are sparse. This paper addresses this gap in the literature by reporting on how Canadian postsecondary educational institutions have engaged with climate change through policy actions. We used descriptive…

Global Climate Change: What Has Science Education Got to Do with It?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sharma, Ajay

2012-01-01

Despite a near universal consensus among scientists regarding the perils of climate change for human civilizations, climate change has not emerged as a key issue among science educators. This position paper advocates for the centrality of climate change in science education. Using Polanyi's critique of market in capitalist societies, it positions…

Phylogenetic approaches reveal biodiversity threats under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Orozco, Carlos E.; Pollock, Laura J.; Thornhill, Andrew H.; Mishler, Brent D.; Knerr, Nunzio; Laffan, Shawn W.; Miller, Joseph T.; Rosauer, Dan F.; Faith, Daniel P.; Nipperess, David A.; Kujala, Heini; Linke, Simon; Butt, Nathalie; Külheim, Carsten; Crisp, Michael D.; Gruber, Bernd

2016-12-01

Predicting the consequences of climate change for biodiversity is critical to conservation efforts. Extensive range losses have been predicted for thousands of individual species, but less is known about how climate change might impact whole clades and landscape-scale patterns of biodiversity. Here, we show that climate change scenarios imply significant changes in phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic endemism at a continental scale in Australia using the hyper-diverse clade of eucalypts. We predict that within the next 60 years the vast majority of species distributions (91%) across Australia will shrink in size (on average by 51%) and shift south on the basis of projected suitable climatic space. Geographic areas currently with high phylogenetic diversity and endemism are predicted to change substantially in future climate scenarios. Approximately 90% of the current areas with concentrations of palaeo-endemism (that is, places with old evolutionary diversity) are predicted to disappear or shift their location. These findings show that climate change threatens whole clades of the phylogenetic tree, and that the outlined approach can be used to forecast areas of biodiversity losses and continental-scale impacts of climate change.

Comparative study on Climate Change Policies in the EU and China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bray, M.; Han, D.

2012-04-01

Both the EU and China are among the largest CO2 emitters in the world; their climate actions and policies have profound impacts on global climate change and may influence the activities in other countries. Evidence of climate change has been observed across Europe and China. Despite the many differences between the two regions, the European Commission and Chinese government support climate change actions. The EU has three priority areas in climate change: 1) understanding, monitoring and predicting climate change and its impact; 2) providing tools to analyse the effectiveness, cost and benefits of different policy options for mitigating climate change and adapting to its impacts; 3) improving, demonstrating and deploying existing climate friendly technologies and developing the technologies of the future. China is very vulnerable to climate change, because of its vast population, fast economic development, and fragile ecological environment. The priority policies in China are: 1) Carbon Trading Policy; 2) Financing Loan Policy (Special Funds for Renewable Energy Development); 3) Energy Efficiency Labelling Policy; 4) Subsidy Policy. In addition, China has formulated the "Energy Conservation Law", "Renewable Energy Law", "Cleaner Production Promotion Law" and "Circular Economy Promotion Law". Under the present EU Framework Programme FP7 there is a large number of funded research activities linked to climate change research. Current climate change research projects concentrate on the carbon cycle, water quality and availability, climate change predictors, predicting future climate and understanding past climates. Climate change-related scientific and technological projects in China are mostly carried out through national scientific and technological research programs. Areas under investigation include projections and impact of global climate change, the future trends of living environment change in China, countermeasures and supporting technologies of global environment change, formation mechanism and prediction theory of major climate and weather disasters in China, technologies of efficient use of clean energy, energy conservation and improvement of energy efficiency, development and utilisation technology of renewable energy and new energy. The EU recognises that developing countries, such as China and India, need to strengthen their economies through industrialisation. However this needs to be achieved at the same time as protecting the environment and sustainable use of energy. The EU has committed itself to assisting developing countries to achieve their goals in four priority areas: 1) raising the policy profile of climate change; 2) support for adaption to climate change; 3) support for mitigation of climate change; and 4) capacity development. This comparative study is part of the EU funded SPRING project which seeks to understand and assess Chinese and European competencies, with the aim of facilitating greater cooperation in future climate and environment research.

Acute effect of oral flavonoid-rich dark chocolate intake on coronary circulation, as compared with non-flavonoid white chocolate, by transthoracic Doppler echocardiography in healthy adults.

PubMed

Shiina, Yumi; Funabashi, Nobusada; Lee, Kwangho; Murayama, Taichi; Nakamura, Koki; Wakatsuki, Yu; Daimon, Masao; Komuro, Issei

2009-01-24

To assess the effects of the oral intake of flavonoid-rich dark chocolate on coronary circulation, we measured coronary flow velocity reserve (CFVR) by noninvasive transthoracic Doppler echocardiography (TTDE) in healthy adult subjects. The study was a randomized, single-blind design conducted for 2 weeks in 39 healthy men (mean age 29.7+/-3.9 years, range 23-40 years). Subjects were randomly assigned a daily intake of either flavonoid-rich dark chocolate (Meiji Black Chocolate 45 g, Meiji Seika kaisya Ltd, including cacao polyphenol 550 mg/day, 200 kcal) or non-flavonoid white chocolate (Meiji White Chocolate 35 g, Meiji Seika kaisya Ltd, including cacao polyphenol 0 mg/day, 140 kcal) as a control. CFVR was recorded by TTDE, and assessed before and after 2 weeks of intake. At the same time, we also assessed serum asymmetric dimethylarginine, 8-isoprostanes, and malondialdehyde-modified low-density lipoprotein (MDA-LDL) as markers of oxidative stress. Flavonoid-rich dark chocolate consumption significantly improved CFVR (3.38+/-0.49 before intake, 4.28+/-0.85 after intake; p<0.01), whereas non-flavonoid white chocolate consumption did not (3.28+/-0.49 before intake, 3.16+/-0.49 after intake; p=0.44). All predictor variables were used as dependent variables in a multiple regression model of the incremental change in CFVR after 2 weeks of chocolate intake. Intake of dark (but not white) chocolate, MDA-LDL, triglyceride (TG) and heart rate (HR) significantly influenced the change of CFVR after 2 weeks of intake (p<0.01) according to the multiple regression formula: Y=1.01X(1)-0.005X(2)-0.003X(3)-0.017X4 (Y=change in CFVR after 2 weeks of chocolate intake, X1=intake of dark (but not white) chocolate, X2=MDA-LDL, X3=TG, X4=HR). Flavonoid-rich dark chocolate intake significantly improved coronary circulation in healthy adults, independent of changes in oxidative stress parameters, blood pressure and lipid profile, whereas non-flavonoid white chocolate had no such effects.

Mechanism of the AppABLUF Photocycle Probed by Site-Specific Incorporation of Fluorotyrosine Residues: Effect of the Y21 pKa on the Forward and Reverse Ground-State Reactions.

PubMed

Gil, Agnieszka; Haigney, Allison; Laptenok, Sergey P; Brust, Richard; Lukacs, Andras; Iuliano, James; Jeng, Jessica; Melief, Eduard; Zhao, Rui-Kun; Yoon, EunBin; Clark, Ian; Towrie, Michael; Greetham, Gregory M; Ng, Annabelle; Truglio, James; French, Jarrod; Meech, Stephen R; Tonge, Peter J

2016-01-27

The transcriptional antirepressor AppA is a blue light using flavin (BLUF) photoreceptor that releases the transcriptional repressor PpsR upon photoexcitation. Light activation of AppA involves changes in a hydrogen-bonding network that surrounds the flavin chromophore on the nanosecond time scale, while the dark state of AppA is then recovered in a light-independent reaction with a dramatically longer half-life of 15 min. Residue Y21, a component of the hydrogen-bonding network, is known to be essential for photoactivity. Here, we directly explore the effect of the Y21 pKa on dark state recovery by replacing Y21 with fluorotyrosine analogues that increase the acidity of Y21 by 3.5 pH units. Ultrafast transient infrared measurements confirm that the structure of AppA is unperturbed by fluorotyrosine substitution, and that there is a small (3-fold) change in the photokinetics of the forward reaction over the fluorotyrosine series. However, reduction of 3.5 pH units in the pKa of Y21 increases the rate of dark state recovery by 4000-fold with a Brønsted coefficient of ∼ 1, indicating that the Y21 proton is completely transferred in the transition state leading from light to dark adapted AppA. A large solvent isotope effect of ∼ 6-8 is also observed on the rate of dark state recovery. These data establish that the acidity of Y21 is a crucial factor for stabilizing the light activated form of the protein, and have been used to propose a model for dark state recovery that will ultimately prove useful for tuning the properties of BLUF photosensors for optogenetic applications.

ARC-1989-A89-7006

NASA Image and Video Library

1989-08-21

Range : 12 million km (7.5 million miles) Resolution 110 km (68 miles) per pixel. These 2 images of Neptune were taken by Voyager 2's narrow-angle camera. During the 17.6 hours between the left and right images, the Great Dark Spot, at 22 degrees south latitude (left of center), has completed a little less than one rotation of Neptune. The smaller dark spot, at 54 south, completed a little more than one rotation, as can be seen by comparing its relative positions in the two pictures. The Great Dark Spot and the smaller spot have a relative velocity of 100 meters per second (220 miles an hour). The light and dark bands circling Neptune indicate predominantly zonal (east-west) motion. The diffuse white feature north of the Great Dark Spot is near Neptune's equator, and rotates with about the same period as the Great Dark Spot. Streak of bright clouds at the south edge, and just east of the Great Dark Spot, are its constatnt companions, and change the details of their appearance, often within a few hours. Changing brightness of the cloud streaks could be a result of vertical mortions.

Baryonic impact on the dark matter orbital properties of Milky Way-sized haloes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Qirong; Hernquist, Lars; Marinacci, Federico; Springel, Volker; Li, Yuexing

2017-04-01

We study the orbital properties of dark matter haloes by combining a spectral method and cosmological simulations of Milky Way-sized Galaxies. We compare the dynamics and orbits of individual dark matter particles from both hydrodynamic and N-body simulations, and find that the fraction of box, tube and resonant orbits of the dark matter halo decreases significantly due to the effects of baryons. In particular, the central region of the dark matter halo in the hydrodynamic simulation is dominated by regular, short-axis tube orbits, in contrast to the chaotic, box and thin orbits dominant in the N-body run. This leads to a more spherical dark matter halo in the hydrodynamic run compared to a prolate one as commonly seen in the N-body simulations. Furthermore, by using a kernel-based density estimator, we compare the coarse-grained phase-space densities of dark matter haloes in both simulations and find that it is lower by ˜0.5 dex in the hydrodynamic run due to changes in the angular momentum distribution, which indicates that the baryonic process that affects the dark matter is irreversible. Our results imply that baryons play an important role in determining the shape, kinematics and phase-space density of dark matter haloes in galaxies.

Function and underlying mechanisms of seasonal colour moulting in mammals and birds: what keeps them changing in a warming world?

PubMed

Zimova, Marketa; Hackländer, Klaus; Good, Jeffrey M; Melo-Ferreira, José; Alves, Paulo Célio; Mills, L Scott

2018-03-05

Animals that occupy temperate and polar regions have specialized traits that help them survive in harsh, highly seasonal environments. One particularly important adaptation is seasonal coat colour (SCC) moulting. Over 20 species of birds and mammals distributed across the northern hemisphere undergo complete, biannual colour change from brown in the summer to completely white in the winter. But as climate change decreases duration of snow cover, seasonally winter white species (including the snowshoe hare Lepus americanus, Arctic fox Vulpes lagopus and willow ptarmigan Lagopus lagopus) become highly contrasted against dark snowless backgrounds. The negative consequences of camouflage mismatch and adaptive potential is of high interest for conservation. Here we provide the first comprehensive review across birds and mammals of the adaptive value and mechanisms underpinning SCC moulting. We found that across species, the main function of SCC moults is seasonal camouflage against snow, and photoperiod is the main driver of the moult phenology. Next, although many underlying mechanisms remain unclear, mammalian species share similarities in some aspects of hair growth, neuroendocrine control, and the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on moult phenology. The underlying basis of SCC moults in birds is less understood and differs from mammals in several aspects. Lastly, our synthesis suggests that due to limited plasticity in SCC moulting, evolutionary adaptation will be necessary to mediate future camouflage mismatch and a detailed understanding of the SCC moulting will be needed to manage populations effectively under climate change. © 2018 The Authors. Biological Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Large Blooms of Bacillales (Firmicutes) Underlie the Response to Wetting of Cyanobacterial Biocrusts at Various Stages of Maturity.

PubMed

Karaoz, Ulas; Couradeau, Estelle; da Rocha, Ulisses Nunes; Lim, Hsiao-Chien; Northen, Trent; Garcia-Pichel, Ferran; Brodie, Eoin L

2018-03-06

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) account for a substantial portion of primary production in dryland ecosystems. They successionally mature to deliver a suite of ecosystem services, such as carbon sequestration, water retention and nutrient cycling, and climate regulation. Biocrust assemblages are extremely well adapted to survive desiccation and to rapidly take advantage of the periodic precipitation events typical of arid ecosystems. Here we focus on the wetting response of incipient cyanobacterial crusts as they mature from "light" to "dark." We sampled a cyanobacterial biocrust chronosequence before (dry) and temporally following a controlled wetting event and used high-throughput 16S rRNA and rRNA gene sequencing to monitor the dynamics of microbial response. Overall, shorter-term changes in phylogenetic beta diversity attributable to periodic wetting were as large as those attributable to biocrust successional stage. Notably, more mature crusts showed significantly higher resistance to precipitation disturbance. A large bloom of a few taxa within the Firmicutes , primarily in the order Bacillales , emerged 18 h after wetting, while filamentous crust-forming cyanobacteria showed variable responses to wet-up across the successional gradient, with populations collapsing in less-developed light crusts but increasing in later-successional-stage dark crusts. Overall, the consistent Bacillales bloom accompanied by the variable collapse of pioneer cyanobacteria of the Oscillatoriales order across the successional gradient suggests that the strong response of few organisms to a hydration pulse with the mortality of the autotroph might have important implications for carbon (C) balance in semiarid ecosystems. IMPORTANCE Desert biological soil crusts are terrestrial topsoil microbial communities common to arid regions that comprise 40% of Earth's terrestrial surface. They successionally develop over years to decades to deliver a suite of ecosystem services of local and global significance. Ecosystem succession toward maturity has been associated with both resistance and resilience to disturbance. Recent work has shown that the impacts of both climate change and physical disturbance on biocrusts increase the potential for successional resetting. A larger proportion of biocrusts are expected to be at an early developmental stage, hence increasing susceptibility to changes in precipitation frequencies. Therefore, it is essential to characterize how biocrusts respond to wetting across early developmental stages. In this study, we document the wetting response of microbial communities from a biocrust chronosequence. Overall, our results suggest that the cumulative effects of altered precipitation frequencies on the stability of biocrusts will depend on biocrust maturity. Copyright © 2018 Karaoz et al.

ClimateWizard: A Framework and Easy-to-Use Web-Mapping Tool for Global, Regional, and Local Climate-Change Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girvetz, E. H.; Zganjar, C.; Raber, G. T.; Hoekstra, J.; Lawler, J. J.; Kareiva, P.

2008-12-01

Now that there is overwhelming evidence of global climate change, scientists, managers and planners (i.e. practitioners) need to assess the potential impacts of climate change on particular ecological systems, within specific geographic areas, and at spatial scales they care about, in order to make better land management, planning, and policy decisions. Unfortunately, this application of climate science to real world decisions and planning has proceeded too slowly because we lack tools for translating cutting-edge climate science and climate-model outputs into something managers and planners can work with at local or regional scales (CCSP 2008). To help increase the accessibility of climate information, we have developed a freely-available, easy-to-use, web-based climate-change analysis toolbox, called ClimateWizard, for assessing how climate has and is projected to change at specific geographic locations throughout the world. The ClimateWizard uses geographic information systems (GIS), web-services (SOAP/XML), statistical analysis platforms (e.g. R- project), and web-based mapping services (e.g. Google Earth/Maps, KML/GML) to provide a variety of different analyses (e.g. trends and departures) and outputs (e.g. maps, graphs, tables, GIS layers). Because ClimateWizard analyzes large climate datasets stored remotely on powerful computers, users of the tool do not need to have fast computers or expensive software, but simply need access to the internet. The analysis results are then provided to users in a Google Maps webpage tailored to the specific climate-change question being asked. The ClimateWizard is not a static product, but rather a framework to be built upon and modified to suit the purposes of specific scientific, management, and policy questions. For example, it can be expanded to include bioclimatic variables (e.g. evapotranspiration) and marine data (e.g. sea surface temperature), as well as improved future climate projections, and climate-change impact analyses involving hydrology, vegetation, wildfire, disease, and food security. By harnessing the power of computer and web- based technologies, the ClimateWizard puts local, regional, and global climate-change analyses in the hands of a wider array of managers, planners, and scientists.

U.S. Air Quality and Health Benefits from Avoided Climate Change under Greenhouse Gas Mitigation.

PubMed

Garcia-Menendez, Fernando; Saari, Rebecca K; Monier, Erwan; Selin, Noelle E

2015-07-07

We evaluate the impact of climate change on U.S. air quality and health in 2050 and 2100 using a global modeling framework and integrated economic, climate, and air pollution projections. Three internally consistent socioeconomic scenarios are used to value health benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation policies specifically derived from slowing climate change. Our projections suggest that climate change, exclusive of changes in air pollutant emissions, can significantly impact ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution across the U.S. and increase associated health effects. Climate policy can substantially reduce these impacts, and climate-related air pollution health benefits alone can offset a significant fraction of mitigation costs. We find that in contrast to cobenefits from reductions to coemitted pollutants, the climate-induced air quality benefits of policy increase with time and are largest between 2050 and 2100. Our projections also suggest that increasing climate policy stringency beyond a certain degree may lead to diminishing returns relative to its cost. However, our results indicate that the air quality impacts of climate change are substantial and should be considered by cost-benefit climate policy analyses.

Impact of Climate Change Effects on Contamination of Cereal Grains with Deoxynivalenol

PubMed Central

Van der Fels-Klerx, H. J.; van Asselt, Esther D.; Madsen, Marianne S.; Olesen, Jørgen E.

2013-01-01

Climate change is expected to aggravate feed and food safety problems of crops; however, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate impacts of climate change effects on deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat and maize grown in the Netherlands by 2040. Quantitative modelling was applied, considering both direct effects of changing climate on toxin contamination and indirect effects via shifts in crop phenology. Climate change projections for the IPCC A1B emission scenario were used for the scenario period 2031-2050 relative to the baseline period of 1975-1994. Climatic data from two different global and regional climate model combinations were used. A weather generator was applied for downscaling climate data to local conditions. Crop phenology models and prediction models for DON contamination used, each for winter wheat and grain maize. Results showed that flowering and full maturity of both wheat and maize will advance with future climate. Flowering advanced on average 5 and 11 days for wheat, and 7 and 14 days for maize (two climate model combinations). Full maturity was on average 10 and 17 days earlier for wheat, and 19 and 36 days earlier for maize. On the country level, contamination of wheat with deoxynivalenol decreased slightly, but not significantly. Variability between regions was large, and individual regions showed a significant increase in deoxynivalenol concentrations. For maize, an overall decrease in deoxynivalenol contamination was projected, which was significant for one climate model combination, but not significant for the other one. In general, results disagree with previous reported expectations of increased feed and food safety hazards under climate change. This study illustrated the relevance of using quantitative models to estimate the impacts of climate change effects on food safety, and of considering both direct and indirect effects when assessing climate change impacts on crops and related food safety hazards. PMID:24066059

Conservation and adaptation to climate change.

PubMed

Brooke, Cassandra

2008-12-01

The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change.

Modelling impacts of climate change on arable crop diseases: progress, challenges and applications.

PubMed

Newbery, Fay; Qi, Aiming; Fitt, Bruce Dl

2016-08-01

Combining climate change, crop growth and crop disease models to predict impacts of climate change on crop diseases can guide planning of climate change adaptation strategies to ensure future food security. This review summarises recent developments in modelling climate change impacts on crop diseases, emphasises some major challenges and highlights recent trends. The use of multi-model ensembles in climate change modelling and crop modelling is contributing towards measures of uncertainty in climate change impact projections but other aspects of uncertainty remain largely unexplored. Impact assessments are still concentrated on few crops and few diseases but are beginning to investigate arable crop disease dynamics at the landscape level. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Physio-climatic controls on vulnerability of watersheds to climate and land use change across the U. S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deshmukh, Ankit; Singh, Riddhi

2016-11-01

Understanding how a watershed's physio-climatic characteristics affect its vulnerability to environmental (climatic and land use) change is crucial for managing these complex systems. In this study, we combine the strengths of recently developed exploratory modeling frameworks and comparative hydrology to quantify the relationship between watershed's vulnerability and its physio-climatic characteristics. We propose a definition of vulnerability that can be used by a diverse range of water system managers and is useful in the presence of large uncertainties in drivers of environmental change. This definition is related to adverse climate change and land use thresholds that are quantified using a recently developed exploratory modeling approach. In this way, we estimate the vulnerability of 69 watersheds in the United States to climate and land use change. We explore definitions of vulnerability that describe average or extreme flow conditions, as well as others that are relevant from the point of view of instream organisms. In order to understand the dominant controls on vulnerability, we correlate these indices with watershed's characteristics describing its topography, geology, drainage, climate, and land use. We find that mean annual flow is more vulnerable to reductions in precipitation in watersheds with lower average soil permeability, lower baseflow index, lower forest cover, higher topographical wetness index, and vice-versa. Our results also indicate a potential mediation of climate change impacts by regional groundwater systems. By developing such relationships across a large range of watersheds, such information can potentially be used to assess the vulnerability of ungauged watersheds to uncertain environmental change.

Challenges and Opportunities for Advancing Work on Climate Change and Public Health.

PubMed

Gould, Solange; Rudolph, Linda

2015-12-09

Climate change poses a major threat to public health. Strategies that address climate change have considerable potential to benefit health and decrease health inequities, yet public health engagement at the intersection of public health, equity, and climate change has been limited. This research seeks to understand the barriers to and opportunities for advancing work at this nexus. We conducted semi-structured in-depth interviews (N = 113) with public health and climate change professionals and thematic analysis. Barriers to public health engagement in addressing climate change include individual perceptions that climate change is not urgent or solvable and insufficient understanding of climate change's health impacts and programmatic connections. Institutional barriers include a lack of public health capacity, authority, and leadership; a narrow framework for public health practice that limits work on the root causes of climate change and health; and compartmentalization within and across sectors. Opportunities include integrating climate change into current public health practice; providing inter-sectoral support for climate solutions with health co-benefits; and using a health frame to engage and mobilize communities. Efforts to increase public health sector engagement should focus on education and communications, building leadership and funding, and increasing work on the shared root causes of climate change and health inequities.

Significance of direct and indirect impacts of climate change on groundwater resources in the Olifants River basin: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nkhonjera, German K.; Dinka, Megersa O.

2017-11-01

This paper considers the extent and usefulness of reviewing existing literature on the significance of direct and indirect impacts of climate change on groundwater resources with emphasis on examples from the Olifants River basin. Here, the existing literature were extensively reviewed, with discussions centred mainly on the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources and challenges in modelling climate change impacts on groundwater resources. Since in the hydrological cycle, the hydrological components such as evaporation, temperature, precipitation, and groundwater, are the major drivers of the present and future climate, a detailed discussion is done on the impact of climate change on these hydrological components to determine to what extent the hydrological cycle has already been affected as a result of climate change. The uncertainties, constraints and limitations in climate change research have also been reviewed. In addition to the research gaps discussed here, the emphasis on the need of extensive climate change research on the continent, especially as climate change impacts on groundwater, is discussed. Overall, the importance of conducting further research in climate change, understanding the significance of the impact of climate change on water resources such as groundwater, and taking actions to effectively meet the adaptation needs of the people, emerge as an important theme in this review.

Climate change and vector-borne diseases of public health significance.

PubMed

Ogden, Nicholas H

2017-10-16

There has been much debate as to whether or not climate change will have, or has had, any significant effect on risk from vector-borne diseases. The debate on the former has focused on the degree to which occurrence and levels of risk of vector-borne diseases are determined by climate-dependent or independent factors, while the debate on the latter has focused on whether changes in disease incidence are due to climate at all, and/or are attributable to recent climate change. Here I review possible effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases, methods used to predict these effects and the evidence to date of changes in vector-borne disease risks that can be attributed to recent climate change. Predictions have both over- and underestimated the effects of climate change. Mostly under-estimations of effects are due to a focus only on direct effects of climate on disease ecology while more distal effects on society's capacity to control and prevent vector-borne disease are ignored. There is increasing evidence for possible impacts of recent climate change on some vector-borne diseases but for the most part, observed data series are too short (or non-existent), and impacts of climate-independent factors too great, to confidently attribute changing risk to climate change. © Crown copyright 2017.

Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

PubMed

Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc

2012-01-01

Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Discharge and Water Quality in an Arid, Urbanized Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranatunga, T.; Tong, S.; Yang, J.

2011-12-01

Hydrologic and water quality models can provide a general framework to conceptualize and investigate the relationships between climate and water resources. Under a hot and dry climate, highly urbanized watersheds are more vulnerable to changes in climate, such as excess heat and drought. In this study, a comprehensive watershed model, Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF), is used to assess the impacts of future climate change on the stream discharge and water quality in Las Vegas Wash in Nevada, the only surface water body that drains from the Las Vegas Valley (an area with rapid population growth and urbanization) to Lake Mead. In this presentation, the process of model building, calibration and validation, the generation of climate change scenarios, and the assessment of future climate change effects on stream hydrology and quality are demonstrated. The hydrologic and water quality model is developed based on the data from current national databases and existing major land use categories of the watershed. The model is calibrated for stream discharge, nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) and sediment yield. The climate change scenarios are derived from the outputs of the Global Climate Models (GCM) and Regional Climate Models (RCM) simulations, and from the recent assessment reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The Climate Assessment Tool from US EPA's BASINS is used to assess the effects of likely future climate scenarios on the water quantity and quality in Las Vegas Wash. Also the presentation discusses the consequences of these hydrologic changes, including the deficit supplies of clean water during peak seasons of water demand, increased eutrophication potentials, wetland deterioration, and impacts on wild life habitats.

The Fate of the World is in your hands: computer gaming for multi-faceted climate change education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedford, D. P.

2015-12-01

Climate change is a multi-faceted (or 'wicked') problem. True climate literacy therefore requires understanding not only the workings of the climate system, but also the current and potential future impacts of climate change and sea level rise on individuals, communities and countries around the world, as noted in the US Global Change Research Program's (2009) Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. The asymmetric nature of climate change impacts, whereby the world's poorest countries have done the least to cause the problem but will suffer disproportionate consequences, has also been widely noted. Education in climate literacy therefore requires an element of ethics in addition to physical and social sciences. As if addressing these multiple aspects of climate change were not challenging enough, polling data has repeatedly shown that many members of the public tend to see climate change as a far away problem affecting people remote from them at a point in the future, but not themselves. This perspective is likely shared by many students. Computer gaming provides a possible solution to the combined problems of, on the one hand, addressing the multi-faceted nature of climate change, and, on the other hand, making the issue real to students. Fate of the World, a game produced by the company Red Redemption, has been used on several occasions in a small (20-30 students) introductory level general education course on global warming at Weber State University. Players are required to balance difficult decisions about energy investment while managing regional political disputes and attempting to maintain minimum levels of development in the world's poorer countries. By providing a realistic "total immersion" experience, the game has the potential to make climate change issues more immediate to players, and presents them with the ethical dilemmas inherent in climate change. This presentation reports on the use of Fate of the World in an educational setting, highlighting student experiences and lessons learned from two attempts to use the game as a tool for teaching the multi-faceted nature of climate change.

Impacts of boundary condition changes on regional climate projections over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jee Hee; Kim, Yeonjoo; Wang, Guiling

2017-06-01

Future projections using regional climate models (RCMs) are driven with boundary conditions (BCs) typically derived from global climate models. Understanding the impact of the various BCs on regional climate projections is critical for characterizing their robustness and uncertainties. In this study, the International Center for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model Version 4 (RegCM4) is used to investigate the impact of different aspects of boundary conditions, including lateral BCs and sea surface temperature (SST), on projected future changes of regional climate in West Africa, and BCs from the coupled European Community-Hamburg Atmospheric Model 5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model are used as an example. Historical, future, and several sensitivity experiments are conducted with various combinations of BCs and CO2 concentration, and differences among the experiments are compared to identify the most important drivers for RCMs. When driven by changes in all factors, the RegCM4-produced future climate changes include significantly drier conditions in Sahel and wetter conditions along the Guinean coast. Changes in CO2 concentration within the RCM domain alone or changes in wind vectors at the domain boundaries alone have minor impact on projected future climate changes. Changes in the atmospheric humidity alone at the domain boundaries lead to a wetter Sahel due to the northward migration of rain belts during summer. This impact, although significant, is offset and dominated by changes of other BC factors (primarily temperature) that cause a drying signal. Future changes of atmospheric temperature at the domain boundaries combined with SST changes over oceans are sufficient to cause a future climate that closely resembles the projection that accounts for all factors combined. Therefore, climate variability and changes simulated by RCMs depend primarily on the variability and change of temperature aspects of the RCM BCs. Moreover, it is found that the response of the RCM climate to different climate change factors is roughly linear in that the projected changes driven by combined factors are close to the sum of projected changes due to each individual factor alone at least for long-term averages. Findings from this study are important for understanding the source(s) of uncertainties in regional climate projections and for designing innovative approaches to climate downscaling and impact assessment.

Use of NARCCAP Model Projections to Develop a Future Typical Meteorological Year and Estimate the Impact of a Changing Climate on Building Energy Consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patton, S. L.; Takle, E. S.; Passe, U.; Kalvelage, K.

2013-12-01

Current simulations of building energy consumption use weather input files based on the past thirty years of climate observations. These 20th century climate conditions may be inadequate when designing buildings meant to function well into the 21st century. An alternative is using model projections of climate change to estimate future risk to the built environment. In this study, model-projected changes in climate were combined with existing typical meteorological year data to create future typical meteorological year data. These data were then formatted for use in EnergyPlus simulation software to evaluate their potential impact on commercial building energy consumption. The modeled climate data were taken from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). NARCCAP uses results of global climate models to drive regional climate models, also known as dynamical downscaling. This downscaling gives higher resolution results over specific locations, and the multiple global/regional climate model combinations provide a unique opportunity to quantify the uncertainty of climate change projections and their impacts. Our results show a projected decrease in heating energy consumption and a projected increase in cooling energy consumption for nine locations across the United States for all model combinations. Warmer locations may expect a decrease in heating load of around 30% to 45% and an increase in cooling load of around 25% to 35%. Colder locations may expect a decrease in heating load of around 15% to 25% and an increase in cooling load of around 40% to 70%. The change in net energy consumption is determined by the balance between the magnitudes of heating change and cooling change. Net energy consumption is projected to increase by an average of 5% for lower-latitude locations and decrease by an average of 5% for higher-latitude locations. With these projected annual and seasonal changes presenting strong evidence for the unsuitable nature of current building practices holding up under future climate change, we recommend using our methods and results to make modifications and adaptations to existing buildings and to aid in the design of future buildings.

Potential impacts of climate change on birds and trees of the eastern United States: newest climate scenarios and species abundance modelling techniques

Treesearch

L.R. Iverson; A.M. Prasad; S.N. Matthews; M.P. Peters

2007-01-01

Climate change is affecting an increasing number of species the world over, and evidence is mounting that these changes will continue to accelerate. There have been many studies that use a modelling approach to predict the effects of future climatic change on ecological systems, including by us (Iverson et al. 1999, Matthews et al. 2004); this modelling approach uses a...

Simulation of future land use change and climate change impacts on hydrological processes in a tropical catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marhaento, H.; Booij, M. J.; Hoekstra, A. Y.

2017-12-01

Future hydrological processes in the Samin catchment (278 km2) in Java, Indonesia have been simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model using inputs from predicted land use distributions in the period 2030 - 2050, bias corrected Regional Climate Model (RCM) output and output of six Global Climate Models (GCMs) to include climate model uncertainty. Two land use change scenarios namely a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, where no measures are taken to control land use change, and a controlled (CON) scenario, where the future land use follows the land use planning, were used in the simulations together with two climate change scenarios namely Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. It was predicted that in 2050 settlement and agriculture area of the study catchment will increase by 33.9% and 3.5%, respectively under the BAU scenario, whereas agriculture area and evergreen forest will increase by 15.2% and 10.2%, respectively under the CON scenario. In comparison to the baseline conditions (1983 - 2005), the predicted mean annual maximum and minimum temperature in 2030 - 2050 will increase by an average of +10C, while changes in the mean annual rainfall range from -20% to +19% under RCP 4.5 and from -25% to +15% under RCP 8.5. The results show that land use change and climate change individually will cause changes in the water balance components, but that more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, in particular for changes in annual stream flow and surface runoff. It was observed that combination of the RCP 4.5 climate scenario and BAU land use scenario resulted in an increase of the mean annual stream flow from -7% to +64% and surface runoff from +21% to +102%, which is 40% and 60% more than when land use change is acting alone. Furthermore, under the CON scenario the annual stream flow and surface runoff could be potentially reduced by up to 10% and 30%, respectively indicating the effectiveness of applied land use planning. The findings of this study will be useful for the water resource managers to mitigate future risks associated with land use and climate changes in the study catchment. Keywords: land use change, climate change, hydrological impact assessment, Samin catchment

Development of a database system for near-future climate change projections under the Japanese National Project SI-CAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakagawa, Y.; Kawahara, S.; Araki, F.; Matsuoka, D.; Ishikawa, Y.; Fujita, M.; Sugimoto, S.; Okada, Y.; Kawazoe, S.; Watanabe, S.; Ishii, M.; Mizuta, R.; Murata, A.; Kawase, H.

2017-12-01

Analyses of large ensemble data are quite useful in order to produce probabilistic effect projection of climate change. Ensemble data of "+2K future climate simulations" are currently produced by Japanese national project "Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT)" as a part of a database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF; Mizuta et al. 2016) produced by Program for Risk Information on Climate Change. Those data consist of global warming simulations and regional downscaling simulations. Considering that those data volumes are too large (a few petabyte) to download to a local computer of users, a user-friendly system is required to search and download data which satisfy requests of the users. We develop "a database system for near-future climate change projections" for providing functions to find necessary data for the users under SI-CAT. The database system for near-future climate change projections mainly consists of a relational database, a data download function and user interface. The relational database using PostgreSQL is a key function among them. Temporally and spatially compressed data are registered on the relational database. As a first step, we develop the relational database for precipitation, temperature and track data of typhoon according to requests by SI-CAT members. The data download function using Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP) provides a function to download temporally and spatially extracted data based on search results obtained by the relational database. We also develop the web-based user interface for using the relational database and the data download function. A prototype of the database system for near-future climate change projections are currently in operational test on our local server. The database system for near-future climate change projections will be released on Data Integration and Analysis System Program (DIAS) in fiscal year 2017. Techniques of the database system for near-future climate change projections might be quite useful for simulation and observational data in other research fields. We report current status of development and some case studies of the database system for near-future climate change projections.

Collaborative Education in Climate Change Sciences and Adaptation through Interactive Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozbay, G.; Sriharan, S.; Fan, C.

2014-12-01

As a result of several funded climate change education grants, collaboration between VSU, DSU, and MSU, was established to provide the innovative and cohesive education and research opportunities to underrepresented groups in the climate related sciences. Prior to offering climate change and adaptation related topics to the students, faculty members of the three collaborating institutions participated at a number of faculty training and preparation workshops for teaching climate change sciences (i.e. AMS Diversity Project Workshop, NCAR Faculty-Student Team on Climate Change, NASA-NICE Program). In order to enhance the teaching and student learning on various issues in the Environmental Sciences Programs, Climatology, Climate Change Sciences and Adaptation or related courses were developed at Delaware State University and its partner institutions (Virginia State University and Morgan State University). These courses were prepared to deliver information on physical basis for the earth's climate system and current climate change instruction modules by AMS and historic climate information (NOAA Climate Services, U.S. and World Weather Data, NCAR and NASA Climate Models). By using Global Seminar as a Model, faculty members worked in teams to engage students in videoconferencing on climate change through Contemporary Global Studies and climate courses including Climate Change and Adaptation Science, Sustainable Agriculture, Introduction to Environmental Sciences, Climatology, and Ecology and Adaptation courses. All climate change courses have extensive hands-on practices and research integrated into the student learning experiences. Some of these students have presented their classroom projects during Earth Day, Student Climate Change Symposium, Undergraduate Summer Symposium, and other national conferences.

An integrated modeling approach for estimating hydrologic responses to future urbanization and climate changes in a mixed-use midwestern watershed.

PubMed

Sunde, Michael G; He, Hong S; Hubbart, Jason A; Urban, Michael A

2018-08-15

Future urban development and climatic changes are likely to affect hydrologic regimes in many watersheds. Quantifying potential water regime changes caused by these stressors is therefore crucial for enabling decision makers to develop viable environmental management strategies. This study presents an approach that integrates mid-21st century impervious surface growth estimates derived from the Imperviousness Change Analysis Tool with downscaled climate model projections and a hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool to characterize potential water regime changes in a mixed-use watershed in central Missouri, USA. Results for the climate change only scenario showed annual streamflow and runoff decreases (-10.7% and -9.2%) and evapotranspiration increases (+6.8%), while results from the urbanization only scenario showed streamflow and runoff increases (+3.8% and +9.3%) and evapotranspiration decreases (-2.4%). Results for the combined impacts scenario suggested that climatic changes could have a larger impact than urbanization on annual streamflow, (overall decrease of -6.1%), and could largely negate surface runoff increases caused by urbanization. For the same scenario, climatic changes exerted a stronger influence on annual evapotranspiration than urbanization (+3.9%). Seasonal results indicated that the relative influences of urbanization and climatic changes vary seasonally. Climatic changes most greatly influenced streamflow and runoff during winter and summer, and evapotranspiration during summer. During some seasons the directional change for hydrologic processes matched for both stressors. This work presented a practicable approach for investigating the relative influences of mid-21st century urbanization and climatic changes on the hydrology of a representative mixed-use watershed, adding to a limited body of research on this topic. This was done using a transferrable approach that can be adapted for watersheds in other regions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using multiple climate projections for assessing hydrological response to climate change in the Thukela River Basin, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, L. Phil; Andersson, Lotta; Horan, Mark; Kunz, Richard; Lumsden, Trevor; Schulze, Roland; Warburton, Michele; Wilk, Julie; Yang, Wei

This study used climate change projections from different regional approaches to assess hydrological effects on the Thukela River Basin in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Projecting impacts of future climate change onto hydrological systems can be undertaken in different ways and a variety of effects can be expected. Although simulation results from global climate models (GCMs) are typically used to project future climate, different outcomes from these projections may be obtained depending on the GCMs themselves and how they are applied, including different ways of downscaling from global to regional scales. Projections of climate change from different downscaling methods, different global climate models and different future emissions scenarios were used as input to simulations in a hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on hydrology. A total of 10 hydrological change simulations were made, resulting in a matrix of hydrological response results. This matrix included results from dynamically downscaled climate change projections from the same regional climate model (RCM) using an ensemble of three GCMs and three global emissions scenarios, and from statistically downscaled projections using results from five GCMs with the same emissions scenario. Although the matrix of results does not provide complete and consistent coverage of potential uncertainties from the different methods, some robust results were identified. In some regards, the results were in agreement and consistent for the different simulations. For others, particularly rainfall, the simulations showed divergence. For example, all of the statistically downscaled simulations showed an annual increase in precipitation and corresponding increase in river runoff, while the RCM downscaled simulations showed both increases and decreases in runoff. According to the two projections that best represent runoff for the observed climate, increased runoff would generally be expected for this basin in the future. Dealing with such variability in results is not atypical for assessing climate change impacts in Africa and practitioners are faced with how to interpret them. This work highlights the need for additional, well-coordinated regional climate downscaling for the region to further define the range of uncertainties involved.

Evaluating the relative impact of climate and economic changes on forest and agricultural ecosystem services in mountain regions.

PubMed

Briner, Simon; Elkin, Ché; Huber, Robert

2013-11-15

Provisioning of ecosystem services (ES) in mountainous regions is predicted to be influenced by i) the direct biophysical impacts of climate change, ii) climate mediated land use change, and iii) socioeconomic driven changes in land use. The relative importance and the spatial distribution of these factors on forest and agricultural derived ES, however, is unclear, making the implementation of ES management schemes difficult. Using an integrated economic-ecological modeling framework, we evaluated the impact of these driving forces on the provision of forest and agricultural ES in a mountain region of southern Switzerland. Results imply that forest ES will be strongly influenced by the direct impact of climate change, but that changes in land use will have a comparatively small impact. The simulation of direct impacts of climate change affects forest ES at all elevations, while land use changes can only be found at high elevations. In contrast, changes to agricultural ES were found to be primarily due to shifts in economic conditions that alter land use and land management. The direct influence of climate change on agriculture is only predicted to be substantial at high elevations, while socioeconomic driven shifts in land use are projected to affect agricultural ES at all elevations. Our simulation results suggest that policy schemes designed to mitigate the negative impact of climate change on forests should focus on suitable adaptive management plans, accelerating adaptation processes for currently forested areas. To maintain provision of agricultural ES policy needs to focus on economic conditions rather than on supporting adaptation to new climate. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determinants of climate change awareness level in upper Nyakach Division, Kisumu County, Kenya.

PubMed

Ajuang, Chadwick O; Abuom, Paul O; Bosire, Esna K; Dida, Gabriel O; Anyona, Douglas N

2016-01-01

Improving the understanding of climate change awareness is one of the top priorities in climate change research. While the African continent is among the regions with the highest vulnerability to climate change, research on climate knowledge and awareness is lacking. Kenya is already grappling with the impacts of climate change, which are projected to increase in a non-linear and non-predictable manner. This study sought to determine climate change awareness levels among households residing in Upper Nyakach Division, Kisumu County, Kenya using common climate change markers viz heavy rainfall, floods, droughts and temperature. A cross-sectional survey design was adopted in which 384 household heads were selected as respondents from 11 sub-locations; all located within Upper Nyakach Division. A questionnaire was used to collect data. Most (90.9 %) respondents had observed changes in the overall climate. Awareness level of climate change varied significantly across the 11 sub-locations. To further gain insight unto which variables were the most significant determinant of climate change awareness in upper Nyakach division, Kisumu county, a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) with Poisson error distribution was built. The model indicated that sex of the household head, education level and age significantly influenced respondents' awareness to climate change markers. Most (87 %) households reported rising temperatures over the past 20 years. Over half (55.2 %) the respondents had observed declining rains, with significant differences being observed across age groups. Up to 75 % of the respondents reported increased droughts frequency over the last 20 years, with significant differences observed across gender. Most (86.7 %) respondents reported having observed changes in water sources with significant differences reported across age groups. The respondents reported an increased prevalence of malaria with significant differences being observed among the education levels and households' main livelihoods. The general population of the Upper Nyakach Divison is aware of changing global climate. However, more effort is required in mitigating climate change as per the local settings. Awareness campaign aimed at increasing knowledge of climate change markers among community members is recommended.

Climatic sensitivity of dryland soil CO2 fluxes differs dramatically with biological soil crust successional state

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tucker, Colin; Ferrenberg, Scott; Reed, Sasha C.

2018-01-01

Arid and semiarid ecosystems make up approximately 41% of Earth’s terrestrial surface and are suggested to regulate the trend and interannual variability of the global terrestrial carbon (C) sink. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are common dryland soil surface communities of bryophytes, lichens, and/or cyanobacteria that bind the soil surface together and that may play an important role in regulating the climatic sensitivity of the dryland C cycle. Major uncertainties exist in our understanding of the interacting effects of changing temperature and moisture on CO2 uptake (photosynthesis) and loss (respiration) from biocrust and sub-crust soil, particularly as related to biocrust successional state. Here, we used a mesocosm approach to assess how biocrust successional states related to climate treatments. We subjected bare soil (Bare), early successional lightly pigmented cyanobacterial biocrust (Early), and late successional darkly pigmented moss-lichen biocrust (Late) to either ambient or + 5°C above ambient soil temperature for 84 days. Under ambient temperatures, Late biocrust mesocosms showed frequent net uptake of CO2, whereas Bare soil, Early biocrust, and warmed Late biocrust mesocosms mostly lost CO2 to the atmosphere. The inhibiting effect of warming on CO2 exchange was a result of accelerated drying of biocrust and soil. We used these data to parameterize, via Bayesian methods, a model of ecosystem CO2 fluxes, and evaluated the model with data from an autochamber CO2 system at our field site on the Colorado Plateau in SE Utah. In the context of the field experiment, the data underscore the negative effect of warming on fluxes both biocrust CO2 uptake and loss—which, because biocrusts are a dominant land cover type in this ecosystem, may extend to ecosystem-scale C cycling.

Global warming's five Germanys: A typology of Germans' views on climate change and patterns of media use and information.

PubMed

Metag, Julia; Füchslin, Tobias; Schäfer, Mike S

2017-05-01

People's attitudes toward climate change differ, and these differences may correspond to distinct patterns of media use and information seeking. However, studies extending analyses of attitude types and their specific media diets to countries beyond the United States are lacking. We use a secondary analysis of survey data from Germany to identify attitudes toward climate change among the German public and specify those segments of the population based on their media use and information seeking. Similar to the Global Warming's Six Americas study, we find distinct attitudes (Global Warming's Five Germanys) that differ in climate change-related perceptions as well as in media use and communicative behavior. These findings can help tailor communication campaigns regarding climate change to specific audiences.

The Impacts and Economic Costs of Climate Change in Agriculture and the Costs and Benefits of Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, A.; Quiroga, S.; Garrote, L.; Cunningham, R.

2012-04-01

This paper provides monetary estimates of the effects of agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe. The model computes spatial crop productivity changes as a response to climate change linking biophysical and socioeconomic components. It combines available data sets of crop productivity changes under climate change (Iglesias et al 2011, Ciscar et al 2011), statistical functions of productivity response to water and nitrogen inputs, catchment level water availability, and environmental policy scenarios. Future global change scenarios are derived from several socio-economic futures of representative concentration pathways and regional climate models. The economic valuation is conducted by using GTAP general equilibrium model. The marginal productivity changes has been used as an input for the economic general equilibrium model in order to analyse the economic impact of the agricultural changes induced by climate change in the world. The study also includes the analysis of an adaptive capacity index computed by using the socio-economic results of GTAP. The results are combined to prioritize agricultural adaptation policy needs in Europe.

Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity.

PubMed

Burrows, Michael T; Schoeman, David S; Richardson, Anthony J; Molinos, Jorge García; Hoffmann, Ary; Buckley, Lauren B; Moore, Pippa J; Brown, Christopher J; Bruno, John F; Duarte, Carlos M; Halpern, Benjamin S; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Kappel, Carrie V; Kiessling, Wolfgang; O'Connor, Mary I; Pandolfi, John M; Parmesan, Camille; Sydeman, William J; Ferrier, Simon; Williams, Kristen J; Poloczanska, Elvira S

2014-03-27

The reorganization of patterns of species diversity driven by anthropogenic climate change, and the consequences for humans, are not yet fully understood or appreciated. Nevertheless, changes in climate conditions are useful for predicting shifts in species distributions at global and local scales. Here we use the velocity of climate change to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches from 1960 to 2009 (ref. 7) and from 2006 to 2100, and use the properties of these trajectories to infer changes in species distributions. Coastlines act as barriers and locally cooler areas act as attractors for trajectories, creating source and sink areas for local climatic conditions. Climate source areas indicate where locally novel conditions are not connected to areas where similar climates previously occurred, and are thereby inaccessible to climate migrants tracking isotherms: 16% of global surface area for 1960 to 2009, and 34% of ocean for the 'business as usual' climate scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) representing continued use of fossil fuels without mitigation. Climate sink areas are where climate conditions locally disappear, potentially blocking the movement of climate migrants. Sink areas comprise 1.0% of ocean area and 3.6% of land and are prevalent on coasts and high ground. Using this approach to infer shifts in species distributions gives global and regional maps of the expected direction and rate of shifts of climate migrants, and suggests areas of potential loss of species richness.

Short-term climate change impacts on Mara basin hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demaria, E. M.; Roy, T.; Valdés, J. B.; Lyon, B.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Serrat-Capdevila, A.; Durcik, M.; Gupta, H.

2017-12-01

The predictability of climate diminishes significantly at shorter time scales (e.g. decadal). Both natural variability as well as sampling variability of climate can obscure or enhance climate change signals in these shorter scales. Therefore, in order to assess the impacts of climate change on basin hydrology, it is important to design climate projections with exhaustive climate scenarios. In this study, we first create seasonal climate scenarios by combining (1) synthetic precipitation projections generated from a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model using the University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit (UEA-CRU) data with (2) seasonal trends calculated from 31 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP). The seasonal climate projections are then disaggregated to daily level using the Agricultural Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (AgMERRA) data. The daily climate data are then bias-corrected and used as forcings to the land-surface model, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), to generate different hydrological projections for the Mara River basin in East Africa, which are then evaluated to study the hydrologic changes in the basin in the next three decades (2020-2050).

78 FR 56202 - Ecological Restoration Policy

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-12

... natural disturbances, and uncertainty related to climate and other environmental change. On September 22... environmental conditions, such as those driven by a changing climate and increasing human uses. Restoration is... regimes; and likely future environments resulting from climate change and increasing human uses. Although...

The Effectiveness of a Geospatial Technologies-Integrated Curriculum to Promote Climate Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anastasio, D. J.; Bodzin, A. M.; Peffer, T.; Sahagian, D. L.; Cirucci, L.

2011-12-01

This study examined the effectiveness of a geospatial technologies - integrated climate change curriculum (http://www.ei.lehigh.edu/eli/cc/) to promote climate literacy in an urban school district. Five 8th grade Earth and Space Science classes in an urban middle school (Bethlehem, Pennsylvania) consisting of three different ability level tracks participated in the study. Data gathering methods included pre/posttest assessments, daily classroom observations, daily teacher meetings, and examination of student produced artifacts. Data was gathered using a climate change literacy assessment instrument designed to measure students' climate change content knowledge. The items included distractors that address misunderstandings and knowledge deficits about climate change from the existing literature. Paired-sample t-test analyses were conducted to compare the pre- and post-test assessment results. The results of these analyses were used to compare overall gains as well as ability level track groups. Overall results regarding the use of the climate change curriculum showed significant improvement in urban middle school students' understanding of climate change concepts. Effect sizes were large (ES>0.8) and significant (p<0.001) for the entire assessment and for each ability level subgroup. Findings from classroom observations, assessments embedded in the curriculum, and the examination of all student artifacts revealed that the use of geospatial technologies enable middle school students to improve their knowledge of climate change and improve their spatial thinking and reasoning skills.

The Dependencies of Ecosystem Pattern, Structure, and Dynamics on Climate, Climate Variability, and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flanagan, S.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J. P.; Rourke, O.

2012-12-01

A robust understanding of the sensitivity of the pattern, structure, and dynamics of ecosystems to climate, climate variability, and climate change is needed to predict ecosystem responses to current and projected climate change. We present results of a study designed to first quantify the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate through the use of climate and ecosystem data, and then use the results to test the sensitivity of the climate data in a state-of the art ecosystem model. A database of available ecosystem characteristics such as mean canopy height, above ground biomass, and basal area was constructed from sources like the National Biomass and Carbon Dataset (NBCD). The ecosystem characteristics were then paired by latitude and longitude with the corresponding climate characteristics temperature, precipitation, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and dew point that were retrieved from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The average yearly and seasonal means of the climate data, and their associated maximum and minimum values, over the 1979-2010 time frame provided by NARR were constructed and paired with the ecosystem data. The compiled results provide natural patterns of vegetation structure and distribution with regard to climate data. An advanced ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography model (ED), was then modified to allow yearly alterations to its mechanistic climate lookup table and used to predict the sensitivities of ecosystem pattern, structure, and dynamics to climate data. The combined ecosystem structure and climate data results were compared to ED's output to check the validity of the model. After verification, climate change scenarios such as those used in the last IPCC were run and future forest structure changes due to climate sensitivities were identified. The results of this study can be used to both quantify and test key relationships for next generation models. The sensitivity of ecosystem characteristics to climate data shown in the database construction and by the model reinforces the need for high-resolution datasets and stresses the importance of understanding and incorporating climate change scenarios into earth system models.

Patterns and biases in climate change research on amphibians and reptiles: a systematic review

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Climate change probably has severe impacts on animal populations, but demonstrating a causal link can be difficult because of potential influences by additional factors. Assessing global impacts of climate change effects may also be hampered by narrow taxonomic and geographical research foci. We review studies on the effects of climate change on populations of amphibians and reptiles to assess climate change effects and potential biases associated with the body of work that has been conducted within the last decade. We use data from 104 studies regarding the effect of climate on 313 species, from 464 species–study combinations. Climate change effects were reported in 65% of studies. Climate change was identified as causing population declines or range restrictions in half of the cases. The probability of identifying an effect of climate change varied among regions, taxa and research methods. Climatic effects were equally prevalent in studies exclusively investigating climate factors (more than 50% of studies) and in studies including additional factors, thus bolstering confidence in the results of studies exclusively examining effects of climate change. Our analyses reveal biases with respect to geography, taxonomy and research question, making global conclusions impossible. Additional research should focus on under-represented regions, taxa and questions. Conservation and climate policy should consider the documented harm climate change causes reptiles and amphibians. PMID:27703684

Hydrological changes in the tropics: an Holocene perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braconnot, Pascale

2015-04-01

Past climates offer a large set of natural experiences that can be used to better understand the relative role of different climate feedbacks arising from changes in the Earth's global energetics, Earth's hydrological cycle or from the coupling between climate and biogeochemical cycles. In addition, the numerous climate reconstructions from different and independent ice, marine and terrestrial climate archives allow to test how climate models reproduce past changes and to assess their credibility when used for future climate projections. The presentation will review some of the mechanisms affecting the long term trend in the location of the intertropical convergence zone and the Afro-Asian monsoon. Using simulations of the PMIP project, as well as sensitivity experiments with the IPSL model, I'll discuss the role of monsoon changes in the global Earth's energetics and the different feedbacks from ocean and land-surface. The presentation will contrast the conditions in the Early, the mid and late Holocene and show how robust features of monsoon changes can be used to better assess future changes in regions where model results are uncertain, such as West Africa.

Effects of climate change and seed dispersal on airborne ragweed pollen loads in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda; Vautard, Robert; Liu, Li; Solmon, Fabien; Viovy, Nicolas; Khvorostyanov, Dmitry; Essl, Franz; Chuine, Isabelle; Colette, Augustin; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Schaffhauser, Alice; Storkey, Jonathan; Thibaudon, Michel; Epstein, Michelle M.

2015-08-01

Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) is an invasive alien species in Europe producing pollen that causes severe allergic disease in susceptible individuals. Ragweed plants could further invade European land with climate and land-use changes. However, airborne pollen evolution depends not only on plant invasion, but also on pollen production, release and atmospheric dispersion changes. To predict the effect of climate and land-use changes on airborne pollen concentrations, we used two comprehensive modelling frameworks accounting for all these factors under high-end and moderate climate and land-use change scenarios. We estimate that by 2050 airborne ragweed pollen concentrations will be about 4 times higher than they are now, with a range of uncertainty from 2 to 12 largely depending on the seed dispersal rate assumptions. About a third of the airborne pollen increase is due to on-going seed dispersal, irrespective of climate change. The remaining two-thirds are related to climate and land-use changes that will extend ragweed habitat suitability in northern and eastern Europe and increase pollen production in established ragweed areas owing to increasing CO2. Therefore, climate change and ragweed seed dispersal in current and future suitable areas will increase airborne pollen concentrations, which may consequently heighten the incidence and prevalence of ragweed allergy.

Development of key indicators to quantify the health impacts of climate change on Canadians.

PubMed

Cheng, June J; Berry, Peter

2013-10-01

This study aimed at developing a list of key human health indicators for quantifying the health impacts of climate change in Canada. A literature review was conducted in OVID Medline to identify health morbidity and mortality indicators currently used to quantify climate change impacts. Public health frameworks and other studies of climate change indicators were reviewed to identify criteria with which to evaluate the list of proposed key indicators and a rating scale was developed. Total scores for each indicator were calculated based on the rating scale. A total of 77 health indicators were identified from the literature. After evaluation using the chosen criteria, 8 indicators were identified as the best for use. They include excess daily all-cause mortality due to heat, premature deaths due to air pollution (ozone and particulate matter 2.5), preventable deaths from climate change, disability-adjusted life years lost from climate change, daily all-cause mortality, daily non-accidental mortality, West Nile Disease incidence, and Lyme borreliosis incidence. There is need for further data and research related to health effect quantification in the area of climate change.

Climate implications of including albedo effects in terrestrial carbon policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. D.; Collins, W.; Torn, M. S.; Calvin, K. V.

2012-12-01

Proposed strategies for managing terrestrial carbon in order to mitigate anthropogenic climate change, such as financial incentives for afforestation, soil carbon sequestration, or biofuel production, largely ignore the direct effects of land use change on climate via biophysical processes that alter surface energy and water budgets. Subsequent influences on temperature, hydrology, and atmospheric circulation at regional and global scales could potentially help or hinder climate stabilization efforts. Because these policies often rely on payments or credits expressed in units of CO2-equivalents, accounting for biophysical effects would require a metric for comparing the strength of biophysical climate perturbation from land use change to that of emitting CO2. One such candidate metric that has been suggested in the literature on land use impacts is radiative forcing, which underlies the global warming potential metric used to compare the climate effects of various greenhouse gases with one another. Expressing land use change in units of radiative forcing is possible because albedo change results in a net top-of-atmosphere radiative flux change. However, this approach has also been critiqued on theoretical grounds because not all climatic changes associated with land use change are principally radiative in nature, e.g. changes in hydrology or the vertical distribution of heat within the atmosphere, and because the spatial scale of land use change forcing differs from that of well-mixed greenhouse gases. To explore the potential magnitude of this discrepancy in the context of plausible scenarios of future land use change, we conduct three simulations with the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) utilizing a slab ocean model. Each simulation examines the effect of a stepwise change in forcing relative to a pre-industrial control simulation: 1) widespread conversion of forest land to crops resulting in approximately 1 W/m2 global-mean radiative forcing from albedo change, 2) an increase in CO2 concentrations that exactly balances the forcing from land use change at the global level, and 3) a simulation combining the first two effects, resulting in net zero global-mean forcing as would occur in an idealized carbon cap-and-trade scheme that accounts for the albedo effect of land use change. The pattern of land use change that we examine is derived from an integrated assessment model that accounts for population, demographic, technological, and policy changes over the 21st century. We find significant differences in the pattern of climate change associated with each of these forcing scenarios, demonstrating the non-additivity of radiative forcing from land-use change and greenhouse gases in the context of a hypothetical scenario of future land use change. These results have implications for the development of land use and climate policies.

Convinced, ambivalent or annoyed: Tyrolean ski tourism stakeholders and their perceptions of climate change.

PubMed

Trawöger, Lisa

2014-02-01

Its focus on snow-dependent activities makes Alpine winter tourism especially sensitive to climate change. Stakeholder risk perceptions are a key factor in adaptation to climate change because they fundamentally drive or constrain stakeholder action. This paper examines climate change perceptions of winter tourism stakeholders in Tyrol (Austria). Using a qualitative approach, expert interviews were conducted. Four opinion categories reflecting different attitudes toward climate change issues were identified: convinced planners , annoyed deniers , ambivalent optimists , convinced wait-and-seers . Although the findings generally indicate a growing awareness of climate change, this awareness is mainly limited to perceiving the issue as a global phenomenon. Awareness of regional and branch-specific consequences of climate change that lead to a demand for action could not be identified. Current technical strategies, like snowmaking, are not primarily climate-induced. At present, coping with climate change is not a priority for risk management. The findings point out the importance of gaining and transferring knowledge of regional and branch-specific consequences of climate change in order to induce action at the destination level.

Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

PubMed

Princé, Karine; Lorrillière, Romain; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Léger, François; Jiguet, Frédéric

2015-01-01

Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture) showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform sustainable agricultural policies for the future.

Small-animal dark-field radiography for pulmonary emphysema evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaroshenko, Andre; Meinel, Felix G.; Hellbach, Katharina; Bech, Martin; Velroyen, Astrid; Müller, Mark; Bamberg, Fabian; Nikolaou, Konstantin; Reiser, Maximilian F.; Yildirim, Ali Ã.-.; Eickelberg, Oliver; Pfeiffer, Franz

2014-03-01

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide and emphysema is one of its main components. The disorder is characterized by irreversible destruction of the alveolar walls and enlargement of distal airspaces. Despite the severe changes in the lung tissue morphology, conventional chest radiographs have only a limited sensitivity for the detection of mild to moderate emphysema. X-ray dark-field is an imaging modality that can significantly increase the visibility of lung tissue on radiographic images. The dark-field signal is generated by coherent, small-angle scattering of x-rays on the air-tissue interfaces in the lung. Therefore, morphological changes in the lung can be clearly visualized on dark-field images. This is demonstrated by a preclinical study with a small-animal emphysema model. To generate a murine model of pulmonary emphysema, a female C57BL/6N mouse was treated with a single orotracheal application of porcine pancreatic elastase (80 U/kg body weight) dissolved in phosphate-buffered saline (PBS). Control mouse received PBS. The mice were imaged using a small-animal dark-field scanner. While conventional x-ray transmission radiography images revealed only subtle indirect signs of the pulmonary disorder, the difference between healthy and emphysematous lungs could be clearly directly visualized on the dark-field images. The dose applied to the animals is compatible with longitudinal studies. The imaging results correlate well with histology. The results of this study reveal the high potential of dark-field radiography for clinical lung imaging.

Suggestions for Forest Conservation Policy under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choe, H.; Thorne, J. H.; Lee, D. K.; Seo, C.

2015-12-01

Climate change and the destruction of natural habitats by land-use change are two main factors in decreasing terrestrial biodiversity. Studying land-use and climate change and their impact under different scenarios can help suggest policy directions for future events. This study explores the spatial results of different land use and climate models on the extent of species rich areas in South Korea. We built land use models of forest conversion and created four 2050 scenarios: (1) a loss trend following current levels, resulting in 15.5% lost; (2) similar loss, but with forest conservation in areas with suitable future climates; (3) a reduction of forest loss by 50%; and (4) a combination of preservation of forest climate refugia and overall reduction of loss by 50%. Forest climate refugia were identified through the use of species distribution models run on 1,031 forest plant species to project current and 2050 distributions. We calculated change in species richness under four climate projections, permitting an assessment of forest refugia zones. We then crossed the four land use models with the climate-driven change in species richness. Forest areas predominantly convert to agricultural areas, while climate-suitable extents for forest plants decline and move northward, especially to higher elevations. Scenario 2, that has the higher level of deforestation but protects future species rich areas, conserves nearly as much future biodiversity as scenario 3, which reduced deforestation rates by 50%. This points to the importance of including biogeographic climate dynamics in forest policy. Scenario 4 was the most effective at conserving forest biodiversity. We suggest conserving forest areas with suitable climates for biodiversity conservation and the establishment of monoculture plantations targeted to areas where species richness will decline based on our results.

The determination of dark adaptation time using electroretinography in conscious Miniature Schnauzer dogs

PubMed Central

Yu, Hyung-Ah; Jeong, Man-Bok; Park, Shin-Ae; Kim, Won-Tae; Kim, Se-Eun; Chae, Je-Min; Yi, Na-Young

2007-01-01

The optimal dark adaptation time of electroretinograms (ERG's) performed on conscious dogs were determined using a commercially available ERG unit with a contact lens electrode and a built-in light source (LED-electrode). The ERG recordings were performed on nine healthy Miniature Schnauzer dogs. The bilateral ERG's at seven different dark adaptation times at an intensity of 2.5 cd·s/m2 was performed. Signal averaging (4 flashes of light stimuli) was adopted to reduce electrophysiologic noise. As the dark adaptation time increased, a significant increase in the mean a-wave amplitudes was observed in comparison to base-line levels up to 10 min (p < 0.05). Thereafter, no significant differences in amplitude occured over the dark adaptation time. Moreover, at this time the mean amplitude was 60.30 ± 18.47 µV. However, no significant changes were observed for the implicit times of the a-wave. The implicit times and amplitude of the b-wave increased significantly up to 20 min of dark adaptation (p < 0.05). Beyond this time, the mean b-wave amplitudes was 132.92 ± 17.79 µV. The results of the present study demonstrate that, the optimal dark adaptation time when performing ERG's, should be at least 20 min in conscious Miniature Schnauzer dogs. PMID:17993756

The determination of dark adaptation time using electroretinography in conscious miniature Schnauzer dogs.

PubMed

Yu, Hyung-Ah; Jeong, Man-Bok; Park, Shin-Ae; Kim, Won-Tae; Kim, Se-Eun; Chae, Je-Min; Yi, Na-Young; Seo, Kang-Moon

2007-12-01

The optimal dark adaptation time of electroretinograms (ERG's) performed on conscious dogs were determined using a commercially available ERG unit with a contact lens electrode and a built-in light source (LED-electrode). The ERG recordings were performed on nine healthy Miniature Schnauzer dogs. The bilateral ERG's at seven different dark adaptation times at an intensity of 2.5 cd.s/m(2) was performed. Signal averaging (4 flashes of light stimuli) was adopted to reduce electrophysiologic noise. As the dark adaptation time increased, a significant increase in the mean a-wave amplitudes was observed in comparison to base-line levels up to 10 min (p < 0.05). Thereafter, no significant differences in amplitude occurred over the dark adaptation time. Moreover, at this time the mean amplitude was 60.30 +/- 18.47 microV. However, no significant changes were observed for the implicit times of the a-wave. The implicit times and amplitude of the b-wave increased significantly up to 20 min of dark adaptation (p < 0.05). Beyond this time, the mean b-wave amplitudes was 132.92 +/- 17.79 microV. The results of the present study demonstrate that, the optimal dark adaptation time when performing ERG's, should be at least 20 min in conscious Miniature Schnauzer dogs.

Climate Change Communicators: The C3E3 Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharif, H. O.; Joseph, J.

2013-12-01

The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA), San Antonio College (SAC), and the University of North Dakota (UND) have partnered with NASA to provide underrepresented undergraduates from UTSA, SAC, and other community colleges climate-related research and education experiences through the Climate Change Communication: Engineer, Environmental science, and Education (C3E3) project. The program aims to develop a robust response to climate change by providing K-16 climate change education; enhance the effectiveness of K-16 education particularly in engineering and other STEM disciplines by use of new instructional technologies; increase the enrollment in engineering programs and the number of engineering degrees awarded by showing engineering's usefulness in relation to the much-discussed contemporary issue of climate change; increase persistence in STEM degrees by providing student research opportunities; and increase the ethnic diversity of those receiving engineering degrees and help ensure an ethnically diverse response to climate change. Students participated in the second summer internship funded by the project. More than 60 students participated in guided research experiences aligned with NASA Science Plan objectives for climate and Earth system science and the educational objectives of the three institutions. The students went through training in modern media technology (webcasts), and in using this technology to communicate the information on climate change to others, especially high school students, culminating in production of webcasts on investigating the aspects of climate change using NASA data. Content developed is leveraged by NASA Earth observation data and NASA Earth system models and tools. Several departments are involved in the educational program.

Undergraduate Students As Effective Climate Change Communicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharif, H. O.; Joseph, J.; Mullendore, G. L.

2014-12-01

The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA), San Antonio College (SAC), and the University of North Dakota (UND) have partnered with NASA to provide underrepresented undergraduates from UTSA, SAC, and other community colleges climate-related research and education experiences through the Climate Change Communication: Engineer, Environmental science, and Education (C3E3) project. The program aims to develop a robust response to climate change by providing K-16 climate change education; enhance the effectiveness of K-16 education particularly in engineering and other STEM disciplines by use of new instructional technologies; increase the enrollment in engineering programs and the number of engineering degrees awarded by showing engineering's usefulness in relation to the much-discussed contemporary issue of climate change; increase persistence in STEM degrees by providing student research opportunities; and increase the ethnic diversity of those receiving engineering degrees and help ensure an ethnically diverse response to climate change. Students participated in the second summer internship funded by the project. The program is in its third year. More than 75 students participated in a guided research experiences aligned with NASA Science Plan objectives for climate and Earth system science and the educational objectives of the three institutions. The students went through training in modern media technology (webcasts), and in using this technology to communicate the information on climate change to others, especially high school students, culminating in production of webcasts on investigating the aspects of climate change using NASA data. Content developed is leveraged by NASA Earth observation data and NASA Earth system models and tools. Three Colleges were involved in the program: Engineering, Education, and Science.

HiRISE Observations of the Polar Regions of Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herkenhoff, K. E.; Byrne, S.; Fishbaugh, K.; Russell, P.; Fortezzo, C.; McEwen, A.

2008-12-01

Digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from MRO HiRISE stereo images allow meter-scale topographic measurements in the north polar layered deposits (NPLD) and distinction of slope vs. albedo effects on apparent brightness of individual layers. HiRISE images do not show thin layers at the limit of resolution. Rather, fine layering, if it exists, appears to have been obscured by a more dust-rich mantling deposit which shows signs of eolian erosion and slumping. Stratigraphic sequences within the NPLD appear to be repeated within exposures observed by HiRISE, indicative of a record of periodic climate changes. Granular flows sourced from within the dark, basal unit are suggestive of, but do not require, the presence of water during their formation. Active mass wasting of frost and dust has been observed on steep NPLD scarps in early spring, similar to dry, loose snow avalanches on terrestrial slopes. Bright and dark streaks are seen to evolve during the northern summer, evidence for active eolian redistribution of frost and perhaps dark (non- volatile) material. Relatively dark reddish patches observed within the north polar residual cap during the summer indicate that the cap is very thin (<1 m) or more transparent in places. HiRISE images of exposures of the south polar layered deposits (SPLD) show rectilinear fractures that are continuous across several layers and whose orientation is not affected by the topography of the exposure, suggesting that they were formed before erosion of the SPLD. They appear to extend laterally and vertically through the SPLD, like a joint set. While NPLD tectonism appears limited to isolated grabens, several faults have been observed by HiRISE in the SPLD, showing structural details including reverse fault splays that merge into bedding planes and possible evidence for thrust duplication. The faults may be the result of basal sliding (decollements) ramping into thrust faults near the margin of the SPLD.

Simulating the hydrologic impacts of land cover and climate changes in a semi-arid watershed

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Changes in climate and land cover are among the principal variables affecting watershed hydrology.This paper uses a cell-based model to examine the hydrologic impacts of climate and land-cover changes in thesemi-arid Lower Virgin River (LVR) watershed located upstream of Lake Mead, Nevada, USA. The cell-basedmodel is developed by considering direct runoff based on the Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCSCN)method and surplus runoff based on the Thornthwaite water balance theory. After calibration and validation,the model is used to predict LVR discharge under future climate and land-cover changes. The hydrologicsimulation results reveal climate change as the dominant factor and land-cover change as a secondary factor inregulating future river discharge. The combined effects of climate and land-cover changes will slightly increaseriver discharge in summer but substantially decrease discharge in winter. This impact on water resources deservesattention in climate change adaptation planning.This dataset is associated with the following publication:Chen, H., S. Tong, H. Yang, and J. Yang. Simulating the hydrologic impacts of land cover and climate changes in a semi-arid watershed. Hydrological Sciences Journal. IAHS LIMITED, Oxford, UK, 60(10): 1739-1758, (2015).

Professional Development Design Considerations in Climate Change Education: Teacher Enactment and Student Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Drewes, Andrea; Henderson, Joseph; Mouza, Chrystalla

2018-01-01

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges facing society, and climate change educational models are emerging in response. This study investigates the implementation and enactment of a climate change professional development (PD) model for science educators and its impact on student learning. Using an intrinsic case study methodology,…

Climate Change in the Social Studies Classroom: A "Why" and "How To" Guide Using the C3 Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kumler, Lori M.; Vosburg-Bluem, Bethany

2014-01-01

Weather phenomena across the United States have provided heightened attention to climate change in headlines such as "Heavy Rain and Floods: The 'New Normal' with Climate Change?" ("Christian Science Monitor," Aug. 14, 2014); "Delay Action on Climate Change by 10 Years and Costs Rocket 40%"…

Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

Treesearch

Xiaohui Tian; Brent Sohngen; John B Kim; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

2016-01-01

This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, theMC2model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase...

Climate Change, Disaster and Sentiment Analysis over Social Media Mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; McCusker, J. P.; McGuinness, D. L.

2012-12-01

Accelerated climate change causes disasters and disrupts people living all over the globe. Disruptive climate events are often reflected in expressed sentiments of the people affected. Monitoring changes in these sentiments during and after disasters can reveal relationships between climate change and mental health. We developed a semantic web tool that uses linked data principles and semantic web technologies to integrate data from multiple sources and analyze them together. We are converting statistical data on climate change and disaster records obtained from the World Bank data catalog and the International Disaster Database into a Resource Description Framework (RDF) representation that was annotated with the RDF Data Cube vocabulary. We compare these data with a dataset of tweets that mention terms from the Emotion Ontology to get a sense of how disasters can impact the affected populations. This dataset is being gathered using an infrastructure we developed that extracts term uses in Twitter with controlled vocabularies. This data was also converted to RDF structure so that statistical data on the climate change and disasters is analyzed together with sentiment data. To visualize and explore relationship of the multiple data across the dimensions of time and location, we use the qb.js framework. We are using this approach to investigate the social and emotional impact of climate change. We hope that this will demonstrate the use of social media data as a valuable source of understanding on global climate change.

Transient simulations of historical climate change including interactive carbon emissions from land-use change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matveev, A.; Matthews, H. D.

2009-04-01

Carbon fluxes from land conversion are among the most uncertain variables in our understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle, which limits our ability to estimate both the total human contribution to current climate forcing and the net effect of terrestrial biosphere changes on atmospheric CO2 increases. The current generation of coupled climate-carbon models have made significant progress in simulating the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but do not typically include land-use change as a dynamic component of the simulation. In this work we have incorporated a book-keeping land-use carbon accounting model into the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), and intermediate-complexity coupled climate-carbon model. The terrestrial component of the UVic ESCM allows an aerial competition of five plant functional types (PFTs) in response to climatic conditions and area availability, and tracks the associated changes in affected carbon pools. In order to model CO2 emissions from land conversion in the terrestrial component of the model, we calculate the allocation of carbon to short and long-lived wood products following specified land-cover change, and use varying decay timescales to estimate CO2 emissions. We use recently available spatial datasets of both crop and pasture distributions to drive a series of transient simulations and estimate the net contribution of human land-use change to historical carbon emissions and climate change.

Spatio-Temporal Pattern Analysis for Regional Climate Change Using Mathematical Morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, M.; Ghosh, S. K.

2015-07-01

Of late, significant changes in climate with their grave consequences have posed great challenges on humankind. Thus, the detection and assessment of climatic changes on a regional scale is gaining importance, since it helps to adopt adequate mitigation and adaptation measures. In this paper, we have presented a novel approach for detecting spatio-temporal pattern of regional climate change by exploiting the theory of mathematical morphology. At first, the various climatic zones in the region have been identified by using multifractal cross-correlation analysis (MF-DXA) of different climate variables of interest. Then, the directional granulometry with four different structuring elements has been studied to detect the temporal changes in spatial distribution of the identified climatic zones in the region and further insights have been drawn with respect to morphological uncertainty index and Hurst exponent. The approach has been evaluated with the daily time series data of land surface temperature (LST) and precipitation rate, collected from Microsoft Research - Fetch Climate Explorer, to analyze the spatio-temporal climatic pattern-change in the Eastern and North-Eastern regions of India throughout four quarters of the 20th century.

Trends in Reports on Climate Change in 2009-2011 in the Korean Press Based on Daily Newspapers' Ownership Structure

PubMed Central

Lee, Jihye; Kim, Hyunsook; Hong, Youngtak; Lee, Weonyoung

2013-01-01

Objectives The mass media play a crucial role in risk communication regarding climate change. The aim of this study was to investigate the trend in journalistic reports on climate change in the daily newspapers of Korea. Methods We selected 9 daily newspapers in Korea, which according to the ABC Association, represented 77% of newspaper circulation, out of a total of 44 Korean daily newspapers. The collected articles were from 2009 to 2011. All of the articles were sorted into the following 8 categories: greenhouse gas, climate change conventions, sea level rise, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change synthesis reports, expected damage and effect, use of fossil fuels, global warming, and mitigation or adaptation. A chi-squared test was done on the articles, which were counted and classified into cause, effect, and measurement of climate change according to the newspaper's majority or minority ownership structure. Results From the 9 selected newspapers, the number of articles on climate change by month was greatest in December 2009. Generally, the articles vague about climate change (lack of precise data, negative or skeptical tone, and improper use of terminology) were much more common than the articles presenting accurate knowledge. A statistical difference was found based on ownership structure: the majority-owned newspapers addressed the cause of climate change, while the minority-owned newspapers referred more to climate change measurement. Conclusions Our investigation revealed that generally Korean daily newspapers did not deliver accurate information about climate change. The coverage of the newspapers showed significant differences according to the ownership structure. PMID:23573375

Trends in reports on climate change in 2009-2011 in the Korean press based on daily newspapers' ownership structure.

PubMed

Lee, Jihye; Hong, Yeon-pyo; Kim, Hyunsook; Hong, Youngtak; Lee, Weonyoung

2013-03-01

The mass media play a crucial role in risk communication regarding climate change. The aim of this study was to investigate the trend in journalistic reports on climate change in the daily newspapers of Korea. We selected 9 daily newspapers in Korea, which according to the ABC Association, represented 77% of newspaper circulation, out of a total of 44 Korean daily newspapers. The collected articles were from 2009 to 2011. All of the articles were sorted into the following 8 categories: greenhouse gas, climate change conventions, sea level rise, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change synthesis reports, expected damage and effect, use of fossil fuels, global warming, and mitigation or adaptation. A chi-squared test was done on the articles, which were counted and classified into cause, effect, and measurement of climate change according to the newspaper's majority or minority ownership structure. From the 9 selected newspapers, the number of articles on climate change by month was greatest in December 2009. Generally, the articles vague about climate change (lack of precise data, negative or skeptical tone, and improper use of terminology) were much more common than the articles presenting accurate knowledge. A statistical difference was found based on ownership structure: the majority-owned newspapers addressed the cause of climate change, while the minority-owned newspapers referred more to climate change measurement. Our investigation revealed that generally Korean daily newspapers did not deliver accurate information about climate change. The coverage of the newspapers showed significant differences according to the ownership structure.

Pace of shifts in climate regions increases with global temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahlstein, Irina; Daniel, John S.; Solomon, Susan

2013-08-01

Human-induced climate change causes significant changes in local climates, which in turn lead to changes in regional climate zones. Large shifts in the world distribution of Köppen-Geiger climate classifications by the end of this century have been projected. However, only a few studies have analysed the pace of these shifts in climate zones, and none has analysed whether the pace itself changes with increasing global mean temperature. In this study, pace refers to the rate at which climate zones change as a function of amount of global warming. Here we show that present climate projections suggest that the pace of shifting climate zones increases approximately linearly with increasing global temperature. Using the RCP8.5 emissions pathway, the pace nearly doubles by the end of this century and about 20% of all land area undergoes a change in its original climate. This implies that species will have increasingly less time to adapt to Köppen zone changes in the future, which is expected to increase the risk of extinction.

The impacts of climate, land use, and demography on fires during the 21st century simulated by CLM-CN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloster, S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Lawrence, P. J.

2012-01-01

Landscape fires during the 21st century are expected to change in response to multiple agents of global change. Important controlling factors include climate controls on the length and intensity of the fire season, fuel availability, and fire management, which are already anthropogenically perturbed today and are predicted to change further in the future. An improved understanding of future fires will contribute to an improved ability to project future anthropogenic climate change, as changes in fire activity will in turn impact climate. In the present study we used a coupled-carbon-fire model to investigate how changes in climate, demography, and land use may alter fire emissions. We used climate projections following the SRES A1B scenario from two different climate models (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and CCSM) and changes in population. Land use and harvest rates were prescribed according to the RCP 45 scenario. In response to the combined effect of all these drivers, our model estimated, depending on our choice of climate projection, an increase in future (2075-2099) fire carbon emissions by 17 and 62% compared to present day (1985-2009). The largest increase in fire emissions was predicted for Southern Hemisphere South America for both climate projections. For Northern Hemisphere Africa, a region that contributed significantly to the global total fire carbon emissions, the response varied between a decrease and an increase depending on the climate projection. We disentangled the contribution of the single forcing factors to the overall response by conducting an additional set of simulations in which each factor was individually held constant at pre-industrial levels. The two different projections of future climate change evaluated in this study led to increases in global fire carbon emissions by 22% (CCSM) and 66% (ECHAM5/MPI-OM). The RCP 45 projection of harvest and land use led to a decrease in fire carbon emissions by -5%. The RCP 26 and RCP 60 harvest and landuse projections caused decreases around -20%. Changes in human ignition led to an increase of 20%. When we also included changes in fire management efforts to suppress fires in densely populated areas, global fire carbon emission decreased by -6% in response to changes in population density. We concluded from this study that changes in fire emissions in the future are controlled by multiple interacting factors. Although changes in climate led to an increase in future fire emissions this could be globally counterbalanced by coupled changes in land use, harvest, and demography.

Challenges and Opportunities for Advancing Work on Climate Change and Public Health

PubMed Central

Gould, Solange; Rudolph, Linda

2015-01-01

Climate change poses a major threat to public health. Strategies that address climate change have considerable potential to benefit health and decrease health inequities, yet public health engagement at the intersection of public health, equity, and climate change has been limited. This research seeks to understand the barriers to and opportunities for advancing work at this nexus. We conducted semi-structured in-depth interviews (N = 113) with public health and climate change professionals and thematic analysis. Barriers to public health engagement in addressing climate change include individual perceptions that climate change is not urgent or solvable and insufficient understanding of climate change’s health impacts and programmatic connections. Institutional barriers include a lack of public health capacity, authority, and leadership; a narrow framework for public health practice that limits work on the root causes of climate change and health; and compartmentalization within and across sectors. Opportunities include integrating climate change into current public health practice; providing inter-sectoral support for climate solutions with health co-benefits; and using a health frame to engage and mobilize communities. Efforts to increase public health sector engagement should focus on education and communications, building leadership and funding, and increasing work on the shared root causes of climate change and health inequities. PMID:26690194

Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France

PubMed Central

Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J. J.; Pagé, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A.

2016-01-01

Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by taking interactions between climate, land use and soil type into account. We conclude that climate change will have a much bigger influence on future SOC losses in mid-latitude mineral soils than land use change dynamics. Hence, reducing CO2 emissions will be crucial to prevent further loss of carbon from our soils. PMID:27808169

Future C loss in mid-latitude mineral soils: climate change exceeds land use mitigation potential in France.

PubMed

Meersmans, Jeroen; Arrouays, Dominique; Van Rompaey, Anton J J; Pagé, Christian; De Baets, Sarah; Quine, Timothy A

2016-11-03

Many studies have highlighted significant interactions between soil C reservoir dynamics and global climate and environmental change. However, in order to estimate the future soil organic carbon sequestration potential and related ecosystem services well, more spatially detailed predictions are needed. The present study made detailed predictions of future spatial evolution (at 250 m resolution) of topsoil SOC driven by climate change and land use change for France up to the year 2100 by taking interactions between climate, land use and soil type into account. We conclude that climate change will have a much bigger influence on future SOC losses in mid-latitude mineral soils than land use change dynamics. Hence, reducing CO 2 emissions will be crucial to prevent further loss of carbon from our soils.

Use of NARCCAP data to characterize regional climate uncertainty in the impact of global climate change on large river fish population: Missouri River sturgeon example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, C. J.; Wildhaber, M. L.; Wikle, C. K.; Moran, E. H.; Franz, K. J.; Dey, R.

2012-12-01

Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding the effects of change on ecosystems requires accounting for the propagation of information and uncertainty across these scales. For example, to understand potential climate change effects on fish populations in riverine ecosystems, climate conditions predicted by course-resolution atmosphere-ocean global climate models must first be translated to the regional climate scale. In turn, this regional information is used to force watershed models, which are used to force river condition models, which impact the population response. A critical challenge in such a multiscale modeling environment is to quantify sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and the individual organism. We use a hierarchical modeling approach for accommodating uncertainty in multiscale ecological impact studies. This framework allows for uncertainty due to system models, model parameter settings, and stochastic parameterizations. This approach is a hybrid between physical (deterministic) downscaling and statistical downscaling, recognizing that there is uncertainty in both. We use NARCCAP data to determine confidence the capability of climate models to simulate relevant processes and to quantify regional climate variability within the context of the hierarchical model of uncertainty quantification. By confidence, we mean the ability of the regional climate model to replicate observed mechanisms. We use the NCEP-driven simulations for this analysis. This provides a base from which regional change can be categorized as either a modification of previously observed mechanisms or emergence of new processes. The management implications for these categories of change are significantly different in that procedures to address impacts from existing processes may already be known and need adjustment; whereas, an emergent processes may require new management strategies. The results from hierarchical analysis of uncertainty are used to study the relative change in weights of the endangered Missouri River pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) under a 21st century climate scenario.

Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change.

PubMed

Bunn, Christian; Läderach, Peter; Pérez Jimenez, Juan Guillermo; Montagnon, Christophe; Schilling, Timothy

2015-01-01

Cultivation of Coffea arabica is highly sensitive to and has been shown to be negatively impacted by progressive climatic changes. Previous research contributed little to support forward-looking adaptation. Agro-ecological zoning is a common tool to identify homologous environments and prioritize research. We demonstrate here a pragmatic approach to describe spatial changes in agro-climatic zones suitable for coffee under current and future climates. We defined agro-ecological zones suitable to produce arabica coffee by clustering geo-referenced coffee occurrence locations based on bio-climatic variables. We used random forest classification of climate data layers to model the spatial distribution of these agro-ecological zones. We used these zones to identify spatially explicit impact scenarios and to choose locations for the long-term evaluation of adaptation measures as climate changes. We found that in zones currently classified as hot and dry, climate change will impact arabica more than those that are better suited to it. Research in these zones should therefore focus on expanding arabica's environmental limits. Zones that currently have climates better suited for arabica will migrate upwards by about 500m in elevation. In these zones the up-slope migration will be gradual, but will likely have negative ecosystem impacts. Additionally, we identified locations that with high probability will not change their climatic characteristics and are suitable to evaluate C. arabica germplasm in the face of climate change. These locations should be used to investigate long term adaptation strategies to production systems.

Constraints on the Within Season and Between Year Variability of the North Residual Cap from MGS-TES

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Calvin, W. M.; Titus, T. N.; Mahoney, S. A.

2003-01-01

There is a long history of telescopic and spacecraft observations of the polar regions of Mars. The finely laminated ice deposits and surrounding layered terrains are commonly thought to contain a record of past climate conditions and change. Understanding the basic nature of the deposits and their mineral and ice constituents is a continued focus of current and future orbited missions. Unresolved issues in Martian polar science include a) the unusual nature of the CO2 ice deposits ("Swiss Cheese", "slab ice" etc.) b) the relationship of the ice deposits to underlying layered units (which differs from the north to the south), c) understanding the seasonal variations and their connections to the finely laminated units observed in high-resolution images and d) the relationship of dark materials in the wind-swept lanes and reentrant valleys to the surrounding dark dune and surface materials. Our work focuses on understanding these issues in relationship to the north residual ice cap. Recent work using Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) data sets have described evolution of the seasonal CO2 frost deposits. In addition, the north polar residual ice cap exhibits albedo variations between Mars years and within the summer season. The Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) data set can augment these observations providing additional constraints such as temperature evolution and spectral properties associated with ice and rocky materials. Exploration of these properties is the subject of our current study.

Bloom of Firmicutes of order Bacillales underlies wet-up response of a cyanobacterial biocrust chronosequence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karaoz, U.; Couradeau, E.; da Rocha, U. N.; Chien Lim, H.; Garcia-Pichel, F.; Northen, T.; Brodie, E.

2016-12-01

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts), critical components of dryland ecosystem, successionally develop to deliver a suite of ecosystem services. Biocrust assemblages are extremely well adapted to survive desiccation and then take advantage of pulses of precipitation typical of arid climate, yet we know little about how these microbial communities of different developmental stages respond to wetup. Here we focus on the wetup response of incipient cyanobacterial crusts as they progress from "light" to "dark". We sampled a cyanobacterial biocrust chronosequence pre- (dry) and post-wetup within a day, and used high-throughput 16S rRNA sequencing to decipher wetup response of microbial communities. Overall, changes in phylogenetic beta-diversity attributable to crust successional stage were at least as large as those for wetup. Notably, more mature crusts showed significantly higher resistance to pulse hydration. Taxonomically, a drastic bloom of handful Firmicutes taxa, primarily from Bacillales order was apparent 18 hrs. after wetup. The wetup response of filamentous cyanobacteria was variable across the successional gradient, with populations collapsing in less developed light crusts but rising in dark crusts. Strong phylogenetic clustering that significantly increased with crust development and wetup suggested conservation and an evolutionary basis for the response of biocrust microbial communities to wetup. The consistent Bacillales bloom accompanied by the variable collapse of the Microcoleus we documented across the successional gradient suggests that the cumulative effects of increased precipitation frequencies on C cycling will depend on crust maturity.

Climate mitigation and the future of tropical landscapes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Thomson, Allison M.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Chini, Louise Parsons

2010-11-16

Land use change to meet 21st Century demands for food, fuel, and fiber will occur in the context of both a changing climate as well as societal efforts to mitigate climate change. This changing natural and human environment will have large consequences for forest resources, terrestrial carbon storage and emissions, and food and energy crop production over the next century. Any climate change mitigation policies enacted will change the environment under which land-use decisions are made and alter global land use change patterns. Here we use the GCAM integrated assessment model to explore how climate mitigation policies that achieve amore » climate stabilization at 4.5 W m-2 radiative forcing in 2100 and value carbon in terrestrial ecosystems interact with future agricultural productivity and food and energy demands to influence land use in the tropics. The regional land use results are downscaled from GCAM regions to produce gridded maps of tropical land use change. We find that tropical forests are preserved only in cases where a climate mitigation policy that values terrestrial carbon is in place, and crop productivity growth continues throughout the century. Crop productivity growth is also necessary to avoid large scale deforestation globally and enable the production of bioenergy crops. The terrestrial carbon pricing assumptions in GCAM are effective at avoiding deforestation even when cropland must expand to meet future food demand.« less

Landscape-scale modelling of soil carbon dynamics under land use and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacoste, Marine; Viaud, Valérie; Michot, Didier; Christian, Walter

2013-04-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration is highly linked to soil use and farming practices, but also to soil redistributions, soil properties, and climate. In a global change context, landscape, farming practice and climate changes are expected; and they will most probably impact SOC dynamics. To assess their respective impacts, we modelled the SOC contents and stocks evolution at the scale of an agricultural landscape, by taking into account the soil redistribution by tillage and water processes. The simulations were conducted from 2010 to 2100 under different scenarios of landscape and climate. These scenarios combined different land uses associated to specific farming practices (mixed dairy with rotations of crops and grasslands, intensive cropping with only crops rotations or permanent grasslands), landscape managements (hedges planting or removal), and climates (business-as-usual climate and climate change, with temperature and precipitations increase). We used a spatially SOC dynamic model (adapted from RothC), coupled to a soil redistribution model (LandSoil). SOC dynamics were spatially modelled with a lateral resolution of 2-m and for soil organic layers up to 105 cm. Initial SOC stocks were described with a 2-m resolution map based on field data and produced with digital soil mapping methods. The major factor of change in SOC stocks was land use change, the second factor of importance was climate change, and finally landscape management: for the total SOC stocks (0-to-105 cm soil layer) the change of land use, climate and landscape management induced a respective mean absolute variation of 10 to 20 tC ha-1, 9 tC ha-1 and 0.4 tC ha-1. When considering the 0-to-105 cm soil layer, the different modelled landscapes showed the same sensitivity to climate change, with induced a mean decrease of 10 tC ha-1. However, the impact of climate change was found different according to the different modelled landscape when considering the 0-to-7.5 and 0-to-30 cm soil layers: the more sensitive landscapes were those of intensive cropping. This shows the importance of considering not only the plough layer, but also the vertical distribution of SOC stocks to assess the variation in SOC dynamics under land use, landscape management or climate change. Finally, rural hedgerow landscapes were proved to be quite well adapted for soil protection in a context of climate change, focusing on both carbon storage and soil erosion.

Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers

PubMed Central

Ponti, Luigi; Gutierrez, Andrew Paul; Ruti, Paolo Michele; Dell’Aquila, Alessandro

2014-01-01

The Mediterranean Basin is a climate and biodiversity hot spot, and climate change threatens agro-ecosystems such as olive, an ancient drought-tolerant crop of considerable ecological and socioeconomic importance. Climate change will impact the interactions of olive and the obligate olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae), and alter the economics of olive culture across the Basin. We estimate the effects of climate change on the dynamics and interaction of olive and the fly using physiologically based demographic models in a geographic information system context as driven by daily climate change scenario weather. A regional climate model that includes fine-scale representation of the effects of topography and the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on regional climate was used to scale the global climate data. The system model for olive/olive fly was used as the production function in our economic analysis, replacing the commonly used production-damage control function. Climate warming will affect olive yield and fly infestation levels across the Basin, resulting in economic winners and losers at the local and regional scales. At the local scale, profitability of small olive farms in many marginal areas of Europe and elsewhere in the Basin will decrease, leading to increased abandonment. These marginal farms are critical to conserving soil, maintaining biodiversity, and reducing fire risk in these areas. Our fine-scale bioeconomic approach provides a realistic prototype for assessing climate change impacts in other Mediterranean agro-ecosystems facing extant and new invasive pests. PMID:24706833

Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers.

PubMed

Ponti, Luigi; Gutierrez, Andrew Paul; Ruti, Paolo Michele; Dell'Aquila, Alessandro

2014-04-15

The Mediterranean Basin is a climate and biodiversity hot spot, and climate change threatens agro-ecosystems such as olive, an ancient drought-tolerant crop of considerable ecological and socioeconomic importance. Climate change will impact the interactions of olive and the obligate olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae), and alter the economics of olive culture across the Basin. We estimate the effects of climate change on the dynamics and interaction of olive and the fly using physiologically based demographic models in a geographic information system context as driven by daily climate change scenario weather. A regional climate model that includes fine-scale representation of the effects of topography and the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on regional climate was used to scale the global climate data. The system model for olive/olive fly was used as the production function in our economic analysis, replacing the commonly used production-damage control function. Climate warming will affect olive yield and fly infestation levels across the Basin, resulting in economic winners and losers at the local and regional scales. At the local scale, profitability of small olive farms in many marginal areas of Europe and elsewhere in the Basin will decrease, leading to increased abandonment. These marginal farms are critical to conserving soil, maintaining biodiversity, and reducing fire risk in these areas. Our fine-scale bioeconomic approach provides a realistic prototype for assessing climate change impacts in other Mediterranean agro-ecosystems facing extant and new invasive pests.

Olive flowering as an indicator of local climatic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orlandi, F.; Ruga, L.; Romano, B.; Fornaciari, M.

2005-07-01

In recent years many studies on climate change and its impacts have been published. In this investigation the flowering of the olive tree (Olea europaea L.) in central Italy was related to climate and its usefulness as a bio-indicator for climatic change has been studied.

Using Remotely Sensed Data for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation: A Collaborative Effort Between the Climate Change Adaptation Science Investigators Workgroup (CASI), NASA Johnson Space Center, and Jacobs Technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jagge, Amy

2016-01-01

With ever changing landscapes and environmental conditions due to human induced climate change, adaptability is imperative for the long-term success of facilities and Federal agency missions. To mitigate the effects of climate change, indicators such as above-ground biomass change must be identified to establish a comprehensive monitoring effort. Researching the varying effects of climate change on ecosystems can provide a scientific framework that will help produce informative, strategic and tactical policies for environmental adaptation. As a proactive approach to climate change mitigation, NASA tasked the Climate Change Adaptation Science Investigators Workgroup (CASI) to provide climate change expertise and data to Center facility managers and planners in order to ensure sustainability based on predictive models and current research. Generation of historical datasets that will be used in an agency-wide effort to establish strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation at NASA facilities is part of the CASI strategy. Using time series of historical remotely sensed data is well-established means of measuring change over time. CASI investigators have acquired multispectral and hyperspectral optical and LiDAR remotely sensed datasets from NASA Earth Observation Satellites (including the International Space Station), airborne sensors, and astronaut photography using hand held digital cameras to create a historical dataset for the Johnson Space Center, as well as the Houston and Galveston area. The raster imagery within each dataset has been georectified, and the multispectral and hyperspectral imagery has been atmospherically corrected. Using ArcGIS for Server, the CASI-Regional Remote Sensing data has been published as an image service, and can be visualized through a basic web mapping application. Future work will include a customized web mapping application created using a JavaScript Application Programming Interface (API), and inclusion of the CASI data for the NASA Johnson Space Center into a NASA-Wide GIS Institutional Portal.

Wintertime urban heat island modified by global climate change over Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hara, M.

2015-12-01

Urban thermal environment change, especially, surface air temperature (SAT) rise in metropolitan areas, is one of the major recent issues in urban areas. The urban thermal environmental change affects not only human health such as heat stroke, but also increasing infectious disease due to spreading out virus vectors habitat and increase of industry and house energy consumption. The SAT rise is mostly caused by global climate change and urban heat island (hereafter UHI) by urbanization. The population in Tokyo metropolitan area is over 30 millions and the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the biggest megacities in the world. The temperature rise due to urbanization seems comparable to the global climate change in the major megacities. It is important to project how the urbanization and the global climate change affect to the future change of urban thermal environment to plan the adaptation and mitigation policy. To predict future SAT change in urban scale, we should estimate future UHI modified by the global climate change. This study investigates change in UHI intensity (UHII) of major metropolitan areas in Japan by effects of the global climate change. We performed a series of climate simulations. Present climate simulations with and without urban process are conducted for ten seasons using a high-resolution numerical climate model, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Future climate projections with and without urban process are also conducted. The future projections are performed using the pseudo global warming method, assuming 2050s' initial and boundary conditions estimated by a GCM under the RCP scenario. Simulation results indicated that UHII would be enhanced more than 30% in Tokyo during the night due to the global climate change. The enhancement of urban heat island is mostly caused by change of lower atmospheric stability.

Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.

2013-06-28

Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overviewmore » of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.« less

Disentangling the driving mechanism of streamflow trends using runoff senstivity to land use and climate change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silverman, N. L.; Moore, J. N.; Maneta, M. P.

2014-12-01

The majority of watersheds within the United States have been disturbed by anthropogenic land use change. On top of this, there is strong evidence of (historic and projected) climatic changes that affect earth's hydrologic cycle. Streamflow measurements integrate the effects of land use and climate change on watershed hydrology. Therefore, when temporal trends are present, teasing out the cause is challenging due to the overlying climate and land use signals. In this study, we develop an analytical framework for distinguishing trends in streamflow that are driven by climate change from those that are driven by land use change. This framework is based on the theory that during wetter years runoff is affected more by changes in climate than during drier years. Whereas, the inverse is true for land use change. During wetter years runoff is affected less by land use change than during drier years. This difference can be seen in the quantile regression of the 75th and 25th percentile annual stream flows which represent wetter and drier years, respectively. This creates a defining characteristic in how these two forcing mechanisms manifest within the streamflow record. We empirically test this framework and show that the sensitivity of runoff to climate and land use change is uniquely dependent on the spatiotemporal water and energy limitations of a catchment. Finally we apply the framework using 1,566 watersheds across the contiguous United States. We use gages from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Water Information System (NWIS) network. The gages are selected because they have continuous and complete data from the years 1950 to 2009 and represent watersheds which are characterized by a range of disturbances. Our results show that the driving mechanisms of streamflow change across the U.S. are regionally coherent and correspond with land management activities and climate zones. This methodology provides a simple means of classifying watershed to regional scale hydroclimatic change without relying on reference stream gages, complex models, or observational climate networks.

"Intelligent Ensemble" Projections of Precipitation and Surface Radiation in Support of Agricultural Climate Change Adaptation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, Patrick C.; Baker, Noel C.

2015-01-01

Earth's climate is changing and will continue to change into the foreseeable future. Expected changes in the climatological distribution of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation will significantly impact agriculture. Adaptation strategies are, therefore, required to reduce the agricultural impacts of climate change. Climate change projections of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation distributions are necessary input for adaption planning studies. These projections are conventionally constructed from an ensemble of climate model simulations (e.g., the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5)) as an equal weighted average, one model one vote. Each climate model, however, represents the array of climate-relevant physical processes with varying degrees of fidelity influencing the projection of individual climate variables differently. Presented here is a new approach, termed the "Intelligent Ensemble, that constructs climate variable projections by weighting each model according to its ability to represent key physical processes, e.g., precipitation probability distribution. This approach provides added value over the equal weighted average method. Physical process metrics applied in the "Intelligent Ensemble" method are created using a combination of NASA and NOAA satellite and surface-based cloud, radiation, temperature, and precipitation data sets. The "Intelligent Ensemble" method is applied to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 anthropogenic climate forcing simulations within the CMIP5 archive to develop a set of climate change scenarios for precipitation, temperature, and surface solar radiation in each USDA Farm Resource Region for use in climate change adaptation studies.

Minigrants to Local Health Departments: An Opportunity to Promote Climate Change Preparedness.

PubMed

Grossman, Elena; Hathaway, Michelle; Bush, Kathleen F; Cahillane, Matthew; English, Dorette Q; Holmes, Tisha; Moran, Colleen E; Uejio, Christopher K; York, Emily A; Dorevitch, Samuel

2018-06-20

Human health is threatened by climate change. While the public health workforce is concerned about climate change, local health department (LHD) administrators have reported insufficient knowledge and resources to address climate change. Minigrants from state to LHDs have been used to promote a variety of local public health initiatives. To describe the minigrant approach used by state health departments implementing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) framework, to highlight successes of this approach in promoting climate change preparedness at LHDs, and to describe challenges encountered. Cross-sectional survey and discussion. State-level recipients of CDC funding issued minigrants to local public health entities to promote climate change preparedness, adaptation, and resilience. The amount of funding, number of LHDs funded per state, goals, selection process, evaluation process, outcomes, successes, and challenges of the minigrant programs. Six state-level recipients of CDC funding for BRACE framework implementation awarded minigrants ranging from $7700 to $28 500 per year to 44 unique local jurisdictions. Common goals of the minigrants included capacity building, forging partnerships with entities outside of health departments, incorporating climate change information into existing programs, and developing adaptation plans. Recipients of minigrants reported increases in knowledge, engagement with diverse stakeholders, and the incorporation of climate change content into existing programs. Challenges included addressing climate change in regions where the topic is politically sensitive, as well as the uncertainty about the long-term sustainability of local projects beyond the term of minigrant support. Minigrants can increase local public health capacity to address climate change. Jurisdictions that wish to utilize minigrant mechanisms to promote climate change adaptation and preparedness at the local level may benefit from the experience of the 6 states and 44 local health programs described.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on projected future fire regimes in the western United States.

PubMed

Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C

2016-01-15

We asked two research questions: (1) What are the relative effects of climate change and climate-driven vegetation shifts on different components of future fire regimes? (2) How does incorporating climate-driven vegetation change into future fire regime projections alter the results compared to projections based only on direct climate effects? We used the western United States (US) as study area to answer these questions. Future (2071-2100) fire regimes were projected using statistical models to predict spatial patterns of occurrence, size and spread for large fires (>400 ha) and a simulation experiment was conducted to compare the direct climatic effects and the indirect effects of climate-driven vegetation change on fire regimes. Results showed that vegetation change amplified climate-driven increases in fire frequency and size and had a larger overall effect on future total burned area in the western US than direct climate effects. Vegetation shifts, which were highly sensitive to precipitation pattern changes, were also a strong determinant of the future spatial pattern of burn rates and had different effects on fire in currently forested and grass/shrub areas. Our results showed that climate-driven vegetation change can exert strong localized effects on fire occurrence and size, which in turn drive regional changes in fire regimes. The effects of vegetation change for projections of the geographic patterns of future fire regimes may be at least as important as the direct effects of climate change, emphasizing that accounting for changing vegetation patterns in models of future climate-fire relationships is necessary to provide accurate projections at continental to global scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rapid genetic divergence in response to 15 years of simulated climate change.

PubMed

Ravenscroft, Catherine H; Whitlock, Raj; Fridley, Jason D

2015-11-01

Genetic diversity may play an important role in allowing individual species to resist climate change, by permitting evolutionary responses. Our understanding of the potential for such responses to climate change remains limited, and very few experimental tests have been carried out within intact ecosystems. Here, we use amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) data to assess genetic divergence and test for signatures of evolutionary change driven by long-term simulated climate change applied to natural grassland at Buxton Climate Change Impacts Laboratory (BCCIL). Experimental climate treatments were applied to grassland plots for 15 years using a replicated and spatially blocked design and included warming, drought and precipitation treatments. We detected significant genetic differentiation between climate change treatments and control plots in two coexisting perennial plant study species (Festuca ovina and Plantago lanceolata). Outlier analyses revealed a consistent signature of selection associated with experimental climate treatments at individual AFLP loci in P. lanceolata, but not in F. ovina. Average background differentiation at putatively neutral AFLP loci was close to zero, and genomewide genetic structure was associated neither with species abundance changes (demography) nor with plant community-level responses to long-term climate treatments. Our results demonstrate genetic divergence in response to a suite of climatic environments in reproductively mature populations of two perennial plant species and are consistent with an evolutionary response to climatic selection in P. lanceolata. These genetic changes have occurred in parallel with impacts on plant community structure and may have contributed to the persistence of individual species through 15 years of simulated climate change at BCCIL. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology Bioenergy Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Visualizing interconnections among climate risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, K.; Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Emori, S.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Honda, Y.; Okada, M.; Masaki, Y.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Yoshimori, M.; Sueyoshi, T.; Hanasaki, N.; Ito, A.; Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Lim, W. H.; Miyazaki, C.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2015-12-01

It is now widely recognized that climate change is affecting various sectors of the world. Climate change impact on one sector may spread out to other sectors including those seemingly remote, which we call "interconnections of climate risks". While a number of climate risks have been identified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), there has been no attempt to explore their interconnections comprehensively. Here we present a first and most exhaustive visualization of climate risks drawn based on a systematic literature survey. Our risk network diagrams depict that changes in the climate system impact natural capitals (terrestrial water, crop, and agricultural land) as well as social infrastructures, influencing the socio-economic system and ultimately our access to food, water, and energy. Our findings suggest the importance of incorporating climate risk interconnections into impact and vulnerability assessments and call into question the widely used damage function approaches, which address a limited number of climate change impacts in isolation. Furthermore, the diagram is useful to educate decision makers, stakeholders, and general public about cascading risks that can be triggered by the climate change. Socio-economic activities today are becoming increasingly more inter-dependent because of the rapid technological progress, urbanization, and the globalization among others. Equally complex is the ecosystem that is susceptible to climate change, which comprises interwoven processes affecting one another. In the context of climate change, a number of climate risks have been identified and classified according to regions and sectors. These reports, however, did not fully address the inter-relations among risks because of the complexity inherent in this issue. Climate risks may ripple through sectors in the present inter-dependent world, posing a challenge ahead of us to maintain the resilience of the system. It is therefore imperative to improve our understanding on how climate change may induce a chain of impacts. Our study is a first step toward this goal by mapping out climate risks and their cause-effect relationships based on current literature.

Putting yourself in the skin of a black avatar reduces implicit racial bias.

PubMed

Peck, Tabitha C; Seinfeld, Sofia; Aglioti, Salvatore M; Slater, Mel

2013-09-01

Although it has been shown that immersive virtual reality (IVR) can be used to induce illusions of ownership over a virtual body (VB), information on whether this changes implicit interpersonal attitudes is meager. Here we demonstrate that embodiment of light-skinned participants in a dark-skinned VB significantly reduced implicit racial bias against dark-skinned people, in contrast to embodiment in light-skinned, purple-skinned or with no VB. 60 females participated in this between-groups experiment, with a VB substituting their own, with full-body visuomotor synchrony, reflected also in a virtual mirror. A racial Implicit Association Test (IAT) was administered at least three days prior to the experiment, and immediately after the IVR exposure. The change from pre- to post-experience IAT scores suggests that the dark-skinned embodied condition decreased implicit racial bias more than the other conditions. Thus, embodiment may change negative interpersonal attitudes and thus represent a powerful tool for exploring such fundamental psychological and societal phenomena. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

From Global Climate Model Projections to Local Impacts Assessments: Analyses in Support of Planning for Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snover, A. K.; Littell, J. S.; Mantua, N. J.; Salathe, E. P.; Hamlet, A. F.; McGuire Elsner, M.; Tohver, I.; Lee, S.

2010-12-01

Assessing and planning for the impacts of climate change require regionally-specific information. Information is required not only about projected changes in climate but also the resultant changes in natural and human systems at the temporal and spatial scales of management and decision making. Therefore, climate impacts assessment typically results in a series of analyses, in which relatively coarse-resolution global climate model projections of changes in regional climate are downscaled to provide appropriate input to local impacts models. This talk will describe recent examples in which coarse-resolution (~150 to 300km) GCM output was “translated” into information requested by decision makers at relatively small (watershed) and large (multi-state) scales using regional climate modeling, statistical downscaling, hydrologic modeling, and sector-specific impacts modeling. Projected changes in local air temperature, precipitation, streamflow, and stream temperature were developed to support Seattle City Light’s assessment of climate change impacts on hydroelectric operations, future electricity load, and resident fish populations. A state-wide assessment of climate impacts on eight sectors (agriculture, coasts, energy, forests, human health, hydrology and water resources, salmon, and urban stormwater infrastructure) was developed for Washington State to aid adaptation planning. Hydro-climate change scenarios for approximately 300 streamflow locations in the Columbia River basin and selected coastal drainages west of the Cascades were developed in partnership with major water management agencies in the Pacific Northwest to allow planners to consider how hydrologic changes may affect management objectives. Treatment of uncertainty in these assessments included: using “bracketing” scenarios to describe a range of impacts, using ensemble averages to characterize the central estimate of future conditions (given an emissions scenario), and explicitly assessing the impacts of multiple GCM ensemble members. The implications of various approaches to dealing with uncertainty, such as these, must be carefully communicated to decision makers in order for projected climate impacts to be viewed as credible and used appropriately.

Water resources under future scenarios of climate change and biofuel development: A case study for Yakima River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demissie, Y. K.

2013-12-01

In recent years, biofuel has become an important renewable energy source with a potential to help mitigate climate change. However, agriculture productivity and its potential use for sustainable production of biofuel are strongly dependent on climate and water conditions that may change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic conditions. For instant in 2012, the US has experienced the most severe drought that results in a 12% decrease in corn production - the main feedstock used for biofuel in US - indicating the vulnerability of biofuel development and policies to change in climate and associated extreme weather conditions. To understand this interrelationship and the combined effects of increased biofuel production and climate change on regional and local water resources, we have applied a SWAT watershed model which integrates future scenarios of climate change and biofuel development and simulates the associated impacts on watershed hydrology, water quality, soil erosion, and agriculture productivity. The study is applied to the Yakima River basin (YRB), which has higher biomass resources in Washington State and represents a region where forestry and agriculture intersect with considerable water shortage as well as spatial variations in annual precipitation. Unlike earlier studies, which commonly define biofuel and climate change scenarios independently, in this study the decision on alternative biofuel feedstock mixes and associated change in land use and management take into account the anticipated climate change. The resulted spatial and temporal distributions of water budget, nutrient loads, and sediment erosion is analyzed to evaluate the effectiveness of biofuel policies under constraints of climate change and water resources in the region.

Impact of Climate Change on Energy Demand in the Midwestern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, M. B.; Zhang, F.; Franklin, M.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

2008-12-01

The impact of climate change on energy demand and use is a significant issue for developing future GHG emission scenarios and developing adaptation and mitigation strategies. A number of studies have evaluated the increase in GHG emissions as a result of changes in energy production from fossil fuels, but the consequences of climate change on energy consumption have not been the focus of many studies. Here we focus on the impacts of climate change on energy use at a regional scale using the Midwestern USA as a test. The paper presents results of analyzing energy use in response to ambient temperature changes in a 17-year period from 1989 to 2006 and projection of energy use under future climate scenarios (2010-2061). This study consisted of a two-step procedure. In the first step, sensitivity of historic energy demand, specifically electricity and natural gas in residential and commercial sectors (42% of end-use energy), with respect to many climatic and non-climatic variables was examined. State-specific regression models were developed to quantify the relationship between energy use and climatic variables using degree days. We found that model parameters and base temperatures for estimating heating and cooling days varied by state and energy sector, mainly depending on climate conditions, infrastructure, economic factors, and seasonal change in energy use. In the second step, we applied these models to predict future energy demand using output data generated by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) for the SRES A1B scenario used in the IPCC AR-4. The annual demands of electricity and natural gas were predicted for each state from 2010 to 2061. The model results indicate that the average annual electricity demand will increase 3%-5% for the southern states and 1%-3% for the northern states in the region by 2061 and that the demand for natural gas is expected to be reduced in all states. A seasonal analysis of energy distribution in response to climate variables identifies a significant peak in demand in July-August (11%-16% in southern states and 6%-10% in the northern states). These findings suggest that the energy sector is vulnerable to climate change even in the northern Midwest region of the US. Furthermore, we demonstrate that a state-level assessment can help to better identify adaptation strategies for future regional energy sector changes.

Hybrid Zones: Windows on Climate Change

PubMed Central

Larson, Erica L.; Harrison, Richard G.

2016-01-01

Defining the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on biodiversity and species distributions is currently a high priority. Niche models focus primarily on predicted changes in abiotic factors; however, species interactions and adaptive evolution will impact the ability of species to persist in the face of changing climate. Our review focuses on the use of hybrid zones to monitor species' responses to contemporary climate change. Monitoring hybrid zones provides insight into how range boundaries shift in response to climate change by illuminating the combined effects of species interactions and physiological sensitivity. At the same time, the semi-permeable nature of species boundaries allows us to document adaptive introgression of alleles associated with response to climate change. PMID:25982153

Twentieth century turnover of Mexican endemic avifaunas: Landscape change versus climate drivers.

PubMed

Peterson, A Townsend; Navarro-Sigüenza, Adolfo G; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique; Cuervo-Robayo, Angela P; Berlanga, Humberto; Soberón, Jorge

2015-05-01

Numerous climate change effects on biodiversity have been anticipated and documented, including extinctions, range shifts, phenological shifts, and breakdown of interactions in ecological communities, yet the relative balance of different climate drivers and their relationships to other agents of global change (for example, land use and land-use change) remains relatively poorly understood. This study integrated historical and current biodiversity data on distributions of 115 Mexican endemic bird species to document areas of concentrated gains and losses of species in local communities, and then related those changes to climate and land-use drivers. Of all drivers examined, at this relatively coarse spatial resolution, only temperature change had significant impacts on avifaunal turnover; neither precipitation change nor human impact on landscapes had detectable effects. This study, conducted across species' geographic distributions, and covering all of Mexico, thanks to two large-scale biodiversity data sets, could discern relative importance of specific climatic drivers of biodiversity change.

A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of California's At-Risk Birds

PubMed Central

Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; DiGaudio, Ryan T.; Comrack, Lyann A.

2012-01-01

Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable) and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected) for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife. PMID:22396726

A climate change vulnerability assessment of California's at-risk birds.

PubMed

Gardali, Thomas; Seavy, Nathaniel E; DiGaudio, Ryan T; Comrack, Lyann A

2012-01-01

Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable) and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected) for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife.

Thermal acclimation of photosynthesis: on the importance of adjusting our definitions and accounting for thermal acclimation of respiration.

PubMed

Way, Danielle A; Yamori, Wataru

2014-02-01

While interest in photosynthetic thermal acclimation has been stimulated by climate warming, comparing results across studies requires consistent terminology. We identify five types of photosynthetic adjustments in warming experiments: photosynthesis as measured at the high growth temperature, the growth temperature, and the thermal optimum; the photosynthetic thermal optimum; and leaf-level photosynthetic capacity. Adjustments of any one of these variables need not mean a concurrent adjustment in others, which may resolve apparently contradictory results in papers using different indicators of photosynthetic acclimation. We argue that photosynthetic thermal acclimation (i.e., that benefits a plant in its new growth environment) should include adjustments of both the photosynthetic thermal optimum (T opt) and photosynthetic rates at the growth temperature (A growth), a combination termed constructive adjustment. However, many species show reduced photosynthesis when grown at elevated temperatures, despite adjustment of some photosynthetic variables, a phenomenon we term detractive adjustment. An analysis of 70 studies on 103 species shows that adjustment of T opt and A growth are more common than adjustment of other photosynthetic variables, but only half of the data demonstrate constructive adjustment. No systematic differences in these patterns were found between different plant functional groups. We also discuss the importance of thermal acclimation of respiration for net photosynthesis measurements, as respiratory temperature acclimation can generate apparent acclimation of photosynthetic processes, even if photosynthesis is unaltered. We show that while dark respiration is often used to estimate light respiration, the ratio of light to dark respiration shifts in a non-predictable manner with a change in leaf temperature.

Projecting species’ vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Valerie; Sofaer, Helen R.; Skagen, Susan K.; Ray, Andrea J.; Noon, Barry R

2017-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross-validation skill indicates extrapolative skill. We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland-dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates, collinearity level, and thresholding procedure. We examined the variation in projected vulnerability attributed to each uncertainty source. To assess extrapolation skill under a changed climate, we compared model predictions with observations from historic drought years. Uncertainty in projected vulnerability was substantial, and the largest source was that of future climate change. Large uncertainty was also attributed to climate covariate class with hydrological covariates projecting half the range loss of bioclimatic covariates or other summaries of temperature and precipitation. We found that choices based on performance in cross-validation improved skill in extrapolation. Qualitative rankings were also highly uncertain. Given uncertainty in projected vulnerability and resulting uncertainty in rankings used for conservation prioritization, a number of considerations appear critical for using bioclimatic SDMs to inform climate change mitigation strategies. Our results emphasize explicitly selecting climate summaries that most closely represent processes likely to underlie ecological response to climate change. For example, hydrological covariates projected substantially reduced vulnerability, highlighting the importance of considering whether water availability may be a more proximal driver than precipitation. However, because cross-validation results were correlated with extrapolation results, the use of cross-validation performance metrics to guide modeling choices where knowledge is limited was supported.

A New High Resolution Climate Dataset for Climate Change Impacts Assessments in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komurcu, M.; Huber, M.

2016-12-01

Assessing regional impacts of climate change (such as changes in extreme events, land surface hydrology, water resources, energy, ecosystems and economy) requires much higher resolution climate variables than those available from global model projections. While it is possible to run global models in higher resolution, the high computational cost associated with these simulations prevent their use in such manner. To alleviate this problem, dynamical downscaling offers a method to deliver higher resolution climate variables. As part of an NSF EPSCoR funded interdisciplinary effort to assess climate change impacts on New Hampshire ecosystems, hydrology and economy (the New Hampshire Ecosystems and Society project), we create a unique high-resolution climate dataset for New England. We dynamically downscale global model projections under a high impact emissions scenario using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with three nested grids of 27, 9 and 3 km horizontal resolution with the highest resolution innermost grid focusing over New England. We prefer dynamical downscaling over other methods such as statistical downscaling because it employs physical equations to progressively simulate climate variables as atmospheric processes interact with surface processes, emissions, radiation, clouds, precipitation and other model components, hence eliminates fix relationships between variables. In addition to simulating mean changes in regional climate, dynamical downscaling also allows for the simulation of climate extremes that significantly alter climate change impacts. We simulate three time slices: 2006-2015, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100. This new high-resolution climate dataset (with more than 200 variables saved in hourly (six hourly) intervals for the highest resolution domain (outer two domains)) along with model input and restart files used in our WRF simulations will be publicly available for use to the broader scientific community to support in-depth climate change impacts assessments for New England. We present results focusing on future changes in New England extreme events.

Projecting species' vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?

PubMed

Steen, Valerie; Sofaer, Helen R; Skagen, Susan K; Ray, Andrea J; Noon, Barry R

2017-11-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross-validation skill indicates extrapolative skill. We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland-dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates, collinearity level, and thresholding procedure. We examined the variation in projected vulnerability attributed to each uncertainty source. To assess extrapolation skill under a changed climate, we compared model predictions with observations from historic drought years. Uncertainty in projected vulnerability was substantial, and the largest source was that of future climate change. Large uncertainty was also attributed to climate covariate class with hydrological covariates projecting half the range loss of bioclimatic covariates or other summaries of temperature and precipitation. We found that choices based on performance in cross-validation improved skill in extrapolation. Qualitative rankings were also highly uncertain. Given uncertainty in projected vulnerability and resulting uncertainty in rankings used for conservation prioritization, a number of considerations appear critical for using bioclimatic SDMs to inform climate change mitigation strategies. Our results emphasize explicitly selecting climate summaries that most closely represent processes likely to underlie ecological response to climate change. For example, hydrological covariates projected substantially reduced vulnerability, highlighting the importance of considering whether water availability may be a more proximal driver than precipitation. However, because cross-validation results were correlated with extrapolation results, the use of cross-validation performance metrics to guide modeling choices where knowledge is limited was supported.

Climate Change Professional Development Approaches: Design Considerations, Teacher Enactment, and Student Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drewes, A.; Henderson, J.; Mouza, C.

2017-12-01

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges facing society, and climate change educational models are emerging in response. This study investigates the implementation and enactment of a climate change professional development model for science educators and its impact on student learning. Using an intrinsic case study methodology, we focused analytic attention on how one teacher made specific curricular, pedagogical, and content decisions, and the implications of those decisions for student's conceptual learning.The research presented here reports on the instructional design, pedagogical enactment, and subsequent effects on student learning of a climate change professional development (PD) model in the United States. Using anthropological theories of conceptual travel, we traced salient ideas from the PD through instructional delivery and into the evidence of student reasoning. We sought to address the following research questions: 1) How did a middle school teacher integrate climate change concepts into her science curriculum following PD participation? and 2) How did climate change instruction influence student understanding of key climate change constructs?From observation of the classroom instruction, we determined that the teacher effectively integrated new climate change information into her pre-existing schema. Additionally, through retrospective analysis of the PD, we found the design of the PD foregrounded the causes, mechanisms and likely effects of anthropogenic climate change at the expense of mitigation and adaptation strategies, and this differentially shaped how climate change was taught in the teacher's classroom. Analysis of student reasoning evidence showed that students gained an increased understanding of the enhanced greenhouse effect and the implications of human activity on this enhanced effect at statistically significant levels and with moderate effect sizes. However, students demonstrated a limited, though non-significant gain on the likely effects of climate change. Student reasoning on the tangible actions to deal with these problems also remained underdeveloped, reflecting omissions in both professional development and teacher enactment. We discuss implications and considerations for the emerging field of climate change education.

Effects of City Expansion on Heat Stress under Climate Change Conditions

PubMed Central

Argüeso, Daniel; Evans, Jason P.; Pitman, Andrew J.; Di Luca, Alejandro

2015-01-01

We examine the joint contribution of urban expansion and climate change on heat stress over the Sydney region. A Regional Climate Model was used to downscale present (1990–2009) and future (2040–2059) simulations from a Global Climate Model. The effects of urban surfaces on local temperature and vapor pressure were included. The role of urban expansion in modulating the climate change signal at local scales was investigated using a human heat-stress index combining temperature and vapor pressure. Urban expansion and climate change leads to increased risk of heat-stress conditions in the Sydney region, with substantially more frequent adverse conditions in urban areas. Impacts are particularly obvious in extreme values; daytime heat-stress impacts are more noticeable in the higher percentiles than in the mean values and the impact at night is more obvious in the lower percentiles than in the mean. Urban expansion enhances heat-stress increases due to climate change at night, but partly compensates its effects during the day. These differences are due to a stronger contribution from vapor pressure deficit during the day and from temperature increases during the night induced by urban surfaces. Our results highlight the inappropriateness of assessing human comfort determined using temperature changes alone and point to the likelihood that impacts of climate change assessed using models that lack urban surfaces probably underestimate future changes in terms of human comfort. PMID:25668390

Color back projection for fruit maturity evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Dong; Lee, Dah-Jye; Desai, Alok

2013-12-01

In general, fruits and vegetables such as tomatoes and dates are harvested before they fully ripen. After harvesting, they continue to ripen and their color changes. Color is a good indicator of fruit maturity. For example, tomatoes change color from dark green to light green and then pink, light red, and dark red. Assessing tomato maturity helps maximize its shelf life. Color is used to determine the length of time the tomatoes can be transported. Medjool dates change color from green to yellow, and the orange, light red and dark red. Assessing date maturity helps determine the length of drying process to help ripen the dates. Color evaluation is an important step in the processing and inventory control of fruits and vegetables that directly affects profitability. This paper presents an efficient color back projection and image processing technique that is designed specifically for real-time maturity evaluation of fruits. This color processing method requires very simple training procedure to obtain the frequencies of colors that appear in each maturity stage. This color statistics is used to back project colors to predefined color indexes. Fruit maturity is then evaluated by analyzing the reprojected color indexes. This method has been implemented and used for commercial production.

Cyclic Colour Change in the Bearded Dragon Pogona vitticeps under Different Photoperiods

PubMed Central

Fan, Marie; Stuart-Fox, Devi; Cadena, Viviana

2014-01-01

The ability to change colour rapidly is widespread among ectotherms and has various functions including camouflage, communication and thermoregulation. The process of colour change can occur as an aperiodic event or be rhythmic, induced by cyclic environmental factors or regulated by internal oscillators. Despite the importance of colour change in reptile ecology, few studies have investigated the occurrence of a circadian rhythm in lizard pigmentation. Additionally, although colour change also entails changes in near-infrared reflectance, which may affect thermoregulation, little research has examined this part of the spectrum. We tested whether the bearded dragon lizard, Pogona vitticeps, displays an endogenous circadian rhythm in pigmentation changes that could be entrained by light/dark (LD) cycles and how light affected the relative change in reflectance in both ultraviolet-visible and near-infrared spectra. We subjected 11 lizards to four photoperiodic regimens: LD 12∶12; LD 6∶18; LD 18∶6 and DD; and measured their dorsal skin reflectance at 3-hour intervals for 72 hours after a habituation period. A proportion of lizards displayed a significant rhythm under constant darkness, with maximum reflectance occurring in the subjective night. This endogenous rhythm synchronised to the different artificial LD cycles, with maximum reflectance occurring during dark phases, but did not vary in amplitude. In addition, the total ultraviolet-visible reflectance in relation to the total near-infrared reflectance was significantly higher during dark phases than during light phases. We conclude that P. vitticeps exhibits a circadian pigmentation rhythm of constant amplitude, regulated by internal oscillators and that can be entrained by light/dark cycles. PMID:25354192

Cyclic colour change in the bearded dragon Pogona vitticeps under different photoperiods.

PubMed

Fan, Marie; Stuart-Fox, Devi; Cadena, Viviana

2014-01-01

The ability to change colour rapidly is widespread among ectotherms and has various functions including camouflage, communication and thermoregulation. The process of colour change can occur as an aperiodic event or be rhythmic, induced by cyclic environmental factors or regulated by internal oscillators. Despite the importance of colour change in reptile ecology, few studies have investigated the occurrence of a circadian rhythm in lizard pigmentation. Additionally, although colour change also entails changes in near-infrared reflectance, which may affect thermoregulation, little research has examined this part of the spectrum. We tested whether the bearded dragon lizard, Pogona vitticeps, displays an endogenous circadian rhythm in pigmentation changes that could be entrained by light/dark (LD) cycles and how light affected the relative change in reflectance in both ultraviolet-visible and near-infrared spectra. We subjected 11 lizards to four photoperiodic regimens: LD 12:12; LD 6:18; LD 18:6 and DD; and measured their dorsal skin reflectance at 3-hour intervals for 72 hours after a habituation period. A proportion of lizards displayed a significant rhythm under constant darkness, with maximum reflectance occurring in the subjective night. This endogenous rhythm synchronised to the different artificial LD cycles, with maximum reflectance occurring during dark phases, but did not vary in amplitude. In addition, the total ultraviolet-visible reflectance in relation to the total near-infrared reflectance was significantly higher during dark phases than during light phases. We conclude that P. vitticeps exhibits a circadian pigmentation rhythm of constant amplitude, regulated by internal oscillators and that can be entrained by light/dark cycles.

Light-Dependent OCT Structure Changes in Photoreceptor Degenerative rd 10 Mouse Retina

PubMed Central

Li, Yichao; Zhang, Yikui; Chen, Sonia; Vernon, Gregory; Wong, Wai T.

2018-01-01

Purpose Using optical coherence tomography (OCT) to analyze the effects of light/dark adaptation in a mouse model of inherited photoreceptor degeneration (rd10), and to study dynamics of subretinal fluid during the progress of retinal degeneration. Methods rd10 and wild-type (WT) C57BL/6J mice were reared in cyclic light or darkness and imaged with Bioptigen UHR-OCT or Spectralis HRA+OCT after adaptation to either light or darkness. Results OCT images from rd10 mice were analyzed at three progressive stages of degeneration. After light-adaptation, stage I (postnatal age [P]26–29) eyes demonstrated no apparent subretinal fluid. At stage II (P32–38), subretinal fluid was present and restricted to parapapillary area, while at stage III (P44–45) extensive subretinal fluid was present across many retinal areas. Following overnight dark-adaptation, WT eyes showed a large reduction in outer retinal thickness (4.6 ± 1.4 μm, n = 16), whereas this change was significantly smaller in stage I rd10 eyes (1.5 ± 0.5 μm, n = 14). In stage II rd10 eyes, dark-adaptation significantly reduced the extent of subretinal fluid, with the amount of reduction correlating with the amount of fluid pre-existing in the light-adapted state. However, dark-adaptation did not significantly alter the amount of subretinal fluid observed in stage III rd10 mice. In addition, dark-rearing of rd10 mice from P6 to P30 slowed retinal degeneration. Conclusions Visual experience in the form of light/dark adaptation exerts a significant effect on outer retinal structure in the context of photoreceptor degeneration. This effect may arise from light-dependent alterations in fluid transport across the RPE monolayer, and promote photoreceptor survival as induced by dark-rearing. PMID:29490345

Land Use and Land Cover Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brown, Daniel; Polsky, Colin; Bolstad, Paul V.

2014-05-01

A contribution to the 3rd National Climate Assessment report, discussing the following key messages: 1. Choices about land-use and land-cover patterns have affected and will continue to affect how vulnerable or resilient human communities and ecosystems are to the effects of climate change. 2. Land-use and land-cover changes affect local, regional, and global climate processes. 3. Individuals, organizations, and governments have the capacity to make land-use decisions to adapt to the effects of climate change. 4. Choices about land use and land management provide a means of reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas levels.

Exploring the Interactions between Land Use, Climate Change and Carbon Cycle using Satellite Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, R. L.; Fares, A.; He, Y.; Awal, R.; Risch, E.

2017-12-01

Most climate change impacts are linked to terrestrial vegetation productivity, carbon stocks and land use change. Changes in land use and climate drive the dynamics of terrestrial carbon cycle. These carbon cycle dynamics operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Quantification of the spatial and temporal variability of carbon flux has been challenging because land-atmosphere-carbon exchange is influenced by many factors, including but not limited to, land use change and climate change and variability. The study of terrestrial carbon cycle, mainly gross primary product (GPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), soil organic carbon (SOC) and ecosystem respiration (Re) and their interactions with land use and climate change, are critical to understanding the terrestrial ecosystem. The main objective of this study was to examine the interactions among land use, climate change and terrestrial carbon cycling in the state of Texas using satellite measurements. We studied GPP, NEE, Re and SOC distributions for five selected major land covers and all ten climate zones in Texas using Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) carbon products. SMAP Carbon products (Res=9 km) were compared with observed CO2 flux data measured at EC flux site on Prairie View A&M University Research Farm. Results showed the same land cover in different climate zones has significantly different carbon sequestration potentials. For example, cropland of the humid climate zone has higher (-228 g C/m2) carbon sequestration potentials than the semiarid climate zone (-36 g C/m2). Also, shrub land in the humid zone and in the semiarid zone showed high (-120 g C/m2) and low (-36 g C/m2) potentials of carbon sequestration, respectively, in the state. Overall, the analyses indicate CO2 storage and exchange respond differently to various land covers, and environments due to differences in water availability, root distribution and soil properties.

Using Remotely Sensed Data and Hydrologic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Climate Change on Shallow Aquatic Ecosystems in the Mobile Bay, AL Estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estes, M. G.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Thom, R.; Judd, C.; Ellis, J.; Woodruff, D.; Quattrochi, D.; Rose, K.; Swann, R.

2012-12-01

Coastal systems in the northern Gulf of Mexico, including the Mobile Bay, AL estuary, are subject to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including climate change. Climate changes have a direct effect on the discharge of rivers that drain into Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal water bodies. The outflows change water quality (temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations) in the shallow aquatic areas and affect ecosystem functioning. Mobile Bay is a vital ecosystem that provides habitat for many species of fauna and flora. Historically, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) and seagrasses were found in this area of the northern Gulf of Mexico; however the extent of vegetation has significantly decreased over the last 60 years. The objectives of this research are to determine: how climate changes affect runoff and water quality in the estuary and how these changes will affect habitat suitability for SAV and seagrasses. Our approach is to use watershed and hydrodynamic modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change on shallow water aquatic ecosystems in Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal areas. Remotely sensed Landsat data were used for current land cover land use (LCLU) model input and the data provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the future changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise were used to create the climate scenarios for the 2025 and 2050 model simulations. Project results are being shared with Gulf coast stakeholders through the Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas to benefit coastal policy and climate change adaptation strategies.

Using Remotely Sensed Data and Hydrologic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Climate Change on Shallow Aquatic Ecosystems in the Mobile Bay, AL Estuary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, M. G.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Thom, R.; Judd, C.; Woodruff, D.; Ellis, J. T.; Quattrochi, D.; Swann, R.

2012-01-01

Coastal systems in the northern Gulf of Mexico, including the Mobile Bay, AL estuary, are subject to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including climate change. Climate changes have a direct effect on the discharge of rivers that drain into Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal water bodies. The outflows change water quality (temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations) in the shallow aquatic areas and affect ecosystem functioning. Mobile Bay is a vital ecosystem that provides habitat for many species of fauna and flora. Historically, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) and seagrasses were found in this area of the northern Gulf of Mexico; however the extent of vegetation has significantly decreased over the last 60 years. The objectives of this research are to determine: how climate changes affect runoff and water quality in the estuary and how these changes will affect habitat suitability for SAV and seagrasses. Our approach is to use watershed and hydrodynamic modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change on shallow water aquatic ecosystems in Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal areas. Remotely sensed Landsat data were used for current land cover land use (LCLU) model input and the data provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the future changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise were used to create the climate scenarios for the 2025 and 2050 model simulations. Project results are being shared with Gulf coast stakeholders through the Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas to benefit coastal policy and climate change adaptation strategies.

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one. PMID:27015274

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

PubMed

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

Climate change impacts on forest fires: the stakeholders' perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannakopoulos, C.; Roussos, A.; Karali, A.; Hatzaki, M.; Xanthopoulos, G.; Chatzinikos, E.; Fyllas, N.; Georgiades, N.; Karetsos, G.; Maheras, G.; Nikolaou, I.; Proutsos, N.; Sbarounis, T.; Tsaggari, K.; Tzamtzis, I.; Goodess, C.

2012-04-01

In this work, we present a synthesis of the presentations and discussions which arose during a workshop on 'Impacts of climate change on forest fires' held in September 2011 at the National Observatory of Athens, Greece in the framework of EU project CLIMRUN. At first, a general presentation about climate change and extremes in the Greek territory provided the necessary background to the audience and highlighted the need for data and information exchange between scientists and stakeholders through climate services within CLIMRUN. Discussions and presentations that followed linked climate with forest science through the use of a meteorological index for fire risk and future projections of fire danger using regional climate models. The current situation on Greek forests was also presented, as well as future steps that should be taken to ameliorate the situation under a climate change world. A time series analysis of changes in forest fires using available historical data on forest ecosystems in Greece was given in this session. This led to the topic of forest fire risk assessment and fire prevention, stating all actions towards sustainable management of forests and effective mechanisms to control fires under climate change. Options for a smooth adaptation of forests to climate change were discussed together with the lessons learned on practical level on prevention, repression and rehabilitation of forest fires. In between there were useful interventions on sustainable hunting and biodiversity protection and on climate change impacts on forest ecosystems dynamics. The importance of developing an educational program for primary/secondary school students on forest fire management was also highlighted. The perspective of forest stakeholders on climate change and how this change can affect their current or future activities was addressed through a questionnaire they were asked to complete. Results showed that the majority of the participants consider climate variability to be important or very important and to influence their activities. Extreme climate events, desertification and drought were regarded as the most important environmental problems along with loss of biodiversity. Most of the participants answered that they use historical data for research, and would welcome climate data and services targeted to their sector if offered. Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the EU project CLIMRUN under contract FP7-ENV-2010- 265192.

Changing Minds about the Changing Climate: a Longitudinal Study of the Impacts of a Climate Change Curriculum on Undergraduate Student Knowledge and Attitudes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burkholder, K. C.; Mooney, S.

2016-12-01

In the fall of 2013, 24 sophomore students enrolled in a three-course Learning Community entitled "The Ethics and Science of Climate Change." This learning community was comprised of two disciplinary courses in environmental ethics and environmental science as well as a seminar course in which the students designed and delivered climate change education events in the community beyond campus. Students were surveyed prior to and upon completion of the semester using a variant of the Yale Climate Literacy Survey in order to assess their knowledge of and attitudes towards climate change. An analysis of those survey results demonstrated that the non-traditional curriculum resulted in significant improvements that extended beyond disciplinary knowledge of climate change: the student attitudes about climate change and our cultural response to the issues associated with climate change shifted as well. Finally, a third administration of the survey (n=17) plus follow up interviews with 10 of those original students conducted during the students' senior year in 2016 suggest that the changes that the students underwent as sophomores were largely retained.

Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Grain Yields in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, J.

2006-12-01

The paper elaborates the social background and research background; makes clear what the key scientific issues need to be resolved and where the difficulties are. In the research area of parasailing the grain yield change caused by climate change, massive works have been done both in the domestic and in the foreign. It is our upcoming work to evaluate how our countrywide climate change information provided by this pattern influence our economic and social development; and how to make related policies and countermeasures. the main idea in this paper is that the grain yield change is by no means the linear composition of social economy function effect and the climatic change function effect. This paper identifies the economic evaluation object, proposes one new concept - climate change output. The grain yields change affected by the social factors and the climatic change working together. Climate change influences the grain yields by the non ¨C linear function from both climate change and social factor changes, not only by climate change itself. Therefore, in my paper, the appraisal object is defined as: The social factors change based on actual social changing situations; under the two kinds of climate change situation, the invariable climate change situation and variable climate change situation; the difference of grain yield outputs is called " climate change output ", In order to solve this problem, we propose a method to analyze and imitate on the historical materials. Giving the condition that the climate is invariable, the social economic factor changes cause the grain yield change. However, this grain yield change is a tentative quantity index, not an actual quantity number. So we use the existing historical materials to exam the climate change output, based on the characteristic that social factor changes greater in year than in age, but the climate factor changes greater in age than in year. The paper proposes and establishes one economy - climate model (C-D-C model) to appraise the grain yield change caused by the climatic change. Also the preliminary test on this model has been done. In selection of the appraisal methods, we take the C-D production function model, which has been proved more mature in the economic research, as our fundamental model. Then, we introduce climate index (arid index) to the C-D model to develop one new model. This new model utilizes the climatic change factor in the economical model to appraise how the climatic change influence the grain yield change. The new way of appraise should have the better application prospect. The economy - climate model (The C-D-C model) has been applied on the eight Chinese regions that we divide; it has been proved satisfactory in its feasibility, rationality and the application prospect. So we can provide the theoretical fundamentals for policy-making under the more complex and uncertain climate change. Therefore, we open a new possible channel for the global climate change research moving toward the actual social, economic life.

Attribution of maize yield increase in China to climate change and technological advancement between 1980 and 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Jianping; Zhao, Junfang; Wu, Dingrong; Mu, Jia; Xu, Yanhong

2014-12-01

Crop yields are affected by climate change and technological advancement. Objectively and quantitatively evaluating the attribution of crop yield change to climate change and technological advancement will ensure sustainable development of agriculture under climate change. In this study, daily climate variables obtained from 553 meteorological stations in China for the period 1961-2010, detailed observations of maize from 653 agricultural meteorological stations for the period 1981-2010, and results using an Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ) model, are used to explore the attribution of maize (Zea mays L.) yield change to climate change and technological advancement. In the AEZ model, the climatic potential productivity is examined through three step-by-step levels: photosynthetic potential productivity, photosynthetic thermal potential productivity, and climatic potential productivity. The relative impacts of different climate variables on climatic potential productivity of maize from 1961 to 2010 in China are then evaluated. Combined with the observations of maize, the contributions of climate change and technological advancement to maize yield from 1981 to 2010 in China are separated. The results show that, from 1961 to 2010, climate change had a significant adverse impact on the climatic potential productivity of maize in China. Decreased radiation and increased temperature were the main factors leading to the decrease of climatic potential productivity. However, changes in precipitation had only a small effect. The maize yields of the 14 main planting provinces in China increased obviously over the past 30 years, which was opposite to the decreasing trends of climatic potential productivity. This suggests that technological advancement has offset the negative effects of climate change on maize yield. Technological advancement contributed to maize yield increases by 99.6%-141.6%, while climate change contribution was from -41.4% to 0.4%. In particular, the actual maize yields in Shandong, Henan, Jilin, and Inner Mongolia increased by 98.4, 90.4, 98.7, and 121.5 kg hm-2 yr-1 over the past 30 years, respectively. Correspondingly, the maize yields affected by technological advancement increased by 113.7, 97.9, 111.5, and 124.8 kg hm-2 yr-1, respectively. On the contrary, maize yields reduced markedly under climate change, with an average reduction of -9.0 kg hm-2 yr-1. Our findings highlight that agronomic technological advancement has contributed dominantly to maize yield increases in China in the past three decades.

Climate change impacts on soil carbon storage in global croplands: 1901-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, W.; Tian, H.

2015-12-01

New global data finds 12% of earth's surface in cropland at present. Croplands will take on the responsibility to support approximate 60% increase in food production by 2050 as FAO estimates. In addition to nutrient supply to plants, cropland soils also play a major source and sink of greenhouse gases regulating global climate system. It is a big challenge to understand how soils function under global changes, but it is also a great opportunity for agricultural sector to manage soils to assure sustainability of agroecosystems and mitigate climate change. Previous studies have attempted to investigate the impacts of different land uses and climates on cropland soil carbon storage. However, large uncertainty still exists in magnitude and spatiotemporal patterns of global cropland soil organic carbon, due to the lack of reliable environmental databases and relatively poorly understanding of multiple controlling factors involved climate change and land use etc. Here, we use a process-based agroecosystem model (DLEM-Ag) in combination with diverse data sources to quantify magnitude and tempo-spatial patterns of soil carbon storage in global croplands during 1901-2010. We also analyze the relative contributions of major environmental variables (climate change, land use and management etc.). Our results indicate that intensive land use management may hidden the vulnerability of cropland soils to climate change in some regions, which may greatly weaken soil carbon sequestration under future climate change.

Sensitivity of Alpine Snow and Streamflow Regimes to Climate Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasouli, K.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Marks, D. G.; Bernhardt, M.

2014-12-01

Understanding the sensitivity of hydrological processes to climate change in alpine areas with snow dominated regimes is of paramount importance as alpine basins show both high runoff efficiency associated with the melt of the seasonal snowpack and great sensitivity of snow processes to temperature change. In this study, meteorological data measured in a selection of alpine headwaters basins including Reynolds Mountain East, Idaho, USA, Wolf Creek, Yukon in Canada, and Zugspitze Mountain, Germany with climates ranging from arctic to continental temperate were used to study the snow and streamflow sensitivity to climate change. All research sites have detailed multi-decadal meteorological and snow measurements. The Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) was used to create a model representing a typical alpine headwater basin discretized into hydrological response units with physically based representations of snow redistribution by wind, complex terrain snowmelt energetics and runoff processes in alpine tundra. The sensitivity of snow hydrology to climate change was investigated by changing air temperature and precipitation using weather generating methods based on the change factors obtained from different climate model projections for future and current periods. The basin mean and spatial variability of peak snow water equivalent, sublimation loss, duration of snow season, snowmelt rates, streamflow peak, and basin discharge were assessed under varying climate scenarios and the most sensitive hydrological mechanisms to the changes in the different alpine climates were detected. The results show that snow hydrology in colder alpine climates is more resilient to warming than that in warmer climates, but that compensatory factors to warming such as reduced blowing snow sublimation loss and reduced melt rate should also be assessed when considering climate change impacts on alpine hydrology.

Regulation of Egr-1, VIP, and Shh mRNA and Egr-1 protein in the mouse retina by light and image quality.

PubMed

Brand, Christine; Burkhardt, Eva; Schaeffel, Frank; Choi, Jeong Won; Feldkaemper, Marita Pauline

2005-04-28

To analyze mRNA expression changes of Egr-1, VIP, and Shh under different light and treatment conditions in mice. The mRNA expression levels of the three genes and additionally the Egr-1 protein expression were compared in form deprived eyes and eyes with normal vision. Moreover, the influence of dark to light and light to dark transitions and of changes in retinal illumination on mRNA levels was investigated. Form deprivation of mice was induced by fitting frosted diffusers over one eye and an attentuation matched neutral density (ND) filter over the other eye. To measure the effects of retinal illumination changes on mRNA expression, animals were bilaterally fitted with different ND filters. Semiquantitative real-time RT-PCR was used to measure the mRNA levels and immunohistochemistry was applied to localize and detect Egr-1 protein. The expression levels of both Egr-1 mRNA and protein were reduced in form deprived eyes compared to their fellow eyes after 30 min and 1 h, respectively. Egr-1 mRNA was strikingly upregulated both after dark to light and light to dark transitions, whereas minor changes in retinal illumination by covering the eyes with neutral density filters did not alter Egr-1 mRNA expression. In mice, the mRNA levels of VIP and Shh were not affected by form deprivation, but they were found to be regulated depending on the time of day. Both Egr-1 mRNA and protein expression levels were strongly regulated by light, especially by transitions between light and darkness. Image contrast may exert an additional influence on mRNA and protein expression of Egr-1, particularly in the cells in the ganglion cell layer and in bipolar cells.

Comparative Synthesis of Current and Future Urban Stormwater Runoff Scenarios in Tampa Bay Basin under a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, M.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

2016-12-01

Changes in climatic regimes and basin characteristics such as imperviousness, roughness and land use types would lead to potential changes in stormwater budget. In this study we quantified reference sensitivities of stormwater runoff to the potential climatic and land use/cover changes by developing a large-scale, mechanistic rainfall-runoff model for the Tampa Bay Basin of Florida using the US EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM 5.1). Key processes of urban hydrology, its dynamic interactions with groundwater and sea level, hydro-climatic variables and land use/cover characteristics were incorporated within the model. The model was calibrated and validated with historical streamflow data. We then computed the historical (1970-2000) and potential 2050s stormwater budgets for the Tampa Bay Basin. Climatic scenario projected by the global climate models (GCMs) and the regional climate models (RCMs), along with sea level and land use/cover projections, were utilized to anticipate the future stormwater budget. The comparative assessment of current and future stormwater scenario will aid a proactive management of stormwater runoff under a changing climate in the Tampa Bay Basin and similar urban basins around the world.

Climate impacts of deforestation/land-use changes in Central South America in the PRECIS regional climate model: mean precipitation and temperature response to present and future deforestation scenarios.

PubMed

Canziani, Pablo O; Carbajal Benitez, Gerardo

2012-01-01

Deforestation/land-use changes are major drivers of regional climate change in central South America, impacting upon Amazonia and Gran Chaco ecoregions. Most experimental and modeling studies have focused on the resulting perturbations within Amazonia. Using the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, driven by ERA-40 reanalysis and ECHAM4 Baseline model for the period 1961-2000 (40-year runs), potential effects of deforestation/land-use changes in these and other neighboring ecoregions are evaluated. Current 2002 and estimated 2030 land-use scenarios are used to assess PRECIS's response during 1960-2000. ERA-40 and ECHAM4 Baseline driven runs yield similar results. Precipitation changes for 2002 and 2030 land-use scenarios, while significant within deforested areas, do not result in significant regional changes. For temperature significant changes are found within deforested areas and beyond, with major temperature enhancements during winter and spring. Given the current climate, primary effects of deforestation/land-use changes remain mostly confined to the tropical latitudes of Gran Chaco, and Amazonia.

Climate Impacts of Deforestation/Land-Use Changes in Central South America in the PRECIS Regional Climate Model: Mean Precipitation and Temperature Response to Present and Future Deforestation Scenarios

PubMed Central

Canziani, Pablo O.; Carbajal Benitez, Gerardo

2012-01-01

Deforestation/land-use changes are major drivers of regional climate change in central South America, impacting upon Amazonia and Gran Chaco ecoregions. Most experimental and modeling studies have focused on the resulting perturbations within Amazonia. Using the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, driven by ERA-40 reanalysis and ECHAM4 Baseline model for the period 1961–2000 (40-year runs), potential effects of deforestation/land-use changes in these and other neighboring ecoregions are evaluated. Current 2002 and estimated 2030 land-use scenarios are used to assess PRECIS's response during 1960–2000. ERA-40 and ECHAM4 Baseline driven runs yield similar results. Precipitation changes for 2002 and 2030 land-use scenarios, while significant within deforested areas, do not result in significant regional changes. For temperature significant changes are found within deforested areas and beyond, with major temperature enhancements during winter and spring. Given the current climate, primary effects of deforestation/land-use changes remain mostly confined to the tropical latitudes of Gran Chaco, and Amazonia. PMID:22645487

Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Warren, Drake E.

2010-01-01

While climate-change models have done a reasonable job of forecasting changes in global climate conditions over the past decades, recent data indicate that actual climate change may be much more severe. To better understand some of the potential economic impacts of these severe climate changes, Sandia economists estimated the impacts to the U.S. economy of climate change-induced impacts to U.S. precipitation over the 2010 to 2050 time period. The economists developed an impact methodology that converts changes in precipitation and water availability to changes in economic activity, and conducted simulations of economic impacts using a large-scale macroeconomic model of themore » U.S. economy.« less

A Sustainable Early Warning System for Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, T.; Tung, C.; Chung, N.

2007-12-01

In this era of rapid social and technological change leading to interesting life complexity and environmental displacement, both positive and negative effects among ecosystems call for a balance in which there are impacts by climate changes. Early warning systems for climate change impacts are necessary in order to allow society as a whole to properly and usefully assimilate the masses of new information and knowledge. Therefore, our research addresses to build up a sustainable early warning mechanism. The main goal is to mitigate the cumulative impacts on the environment of climate change and enhance adaptive capacities. An effective early warning system has been proven for protection. However, there is a problem that estimate future climate changes would be faced with high uncertainty. In general, take estimations for climate change impacts would use the data from General Circulation Models and take the analysis as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change declared. We follow the course of the method for analyzing climate change impacts and attempt to accomplish the sustainable early warning system for water quality management. Climate changes impact not only on individual situation but on short-term variation and long-term gradually changes. This kind characteristic should adopt the suitable warning system for long-term formulation and short- term operation. To continue the on-going research of the long-term early warning system for climate change impacts on water quality management, the short-term early warning system is established by using local observation data for reappraising the warning issue. The combination of long-term and short-term system can provide more circumstantial details. In Taiwan, a number of studies have revealed that climate change impacts on water quality, especially in arid period, the concentration of biological oxygen demand may turn into worse. Rapid population growth would also inflict injury on its assimilative capacity to degenerate. To concern about those items, the sustainable early warning system is established and the initiative fall into the following categories: considering the implications for policies, applying adaptive strategies and informing the new climate changes. By setting up the framework of early warning system expectantly can defend stream area from impacts damaging and in sure the sustainable development.

Emerging migration flows in a changing climate in dryland Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kniveton, Dominic R.; Smith, Christopher D.; Black, Richard

2012-06-01

Fears of the movement of large numbers of people as a result of changes in the environment were first voiced in the 1980s (ref. ). Nearly thirty years later the numbers likely to migrate as a result of the impacts of climate change are still, at best, guesswork. Owing to the high prevalence of rainfed agriculture, many livelihoods in sub-Saharan African drylands are particularly vulnerable to changes in climate. One commonly adopted response strategy used by populations to deal with the resulting livelihood stress is migration. Here, we use an agent-based model developed around the theory of planned behaviour to explore how climate and demographic change, defined by the ENSEMBLES project and the United Nations Statistics Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, combine to influence migration within and from Burkina Faso. The emergent migration patterns modelled support framing the nexus of climate change and migration as a complex adaptive system. Using this conceptual framework, we show that the extent of climate-change-related migration is likely to be highly nonlinear and the extent of this nonlinearity is dependent on population growth; therefore supporting migration policy interventions based on both demographic and climate change adaptation.

Our Changing Climate: A Brand New Way to Study Climate Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I.; Nugnes, K. A.; Mills, E. W.

2014-12-01

Earth's climate is inherently variable, but is currently changing at rates unprecedented in recent Earth history. Human activity plays a major role in this change and is projected to do so well into the future. This is the stance taken in Our Changing Climate, the brand new climate science ebook from the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Our Changing Climate investigates Earth's climate system, explores humans' impact on it, and identifies actions needed in response to climate change. Released in August 2014, Our Changing Climate is the result of a year's worth of intensive research and writing, incorporating the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the Third National Climate Assessment. To encourage additional exploration of climate science information, scientific literature, from which chapter content was derived, is cited at the conclusion of each chapter. In addition, Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive information related to various topics. For example, a Topic In Depth in Chapter 11 describes the effect of climate extremes on ranching enterprises in Nebraska. Climate science is multi-disciplinary and therefore Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics. From understanding basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate Earth's climate system to examining the psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial, the AMS believes that a multi-disciplinary approach is the most effective way to increase climate literacy. Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course which is intended for undergraduate-level students. Other course materials include an eInvestigations Manual and access to the RealTime Climate Portal, both of which provide weekly activities corresponding to that week's chapter content. The RealTime Climate Portal also has links to climate data as well as societal interactions and climate policy websites to spur further interest. Faculty support materials are also provided. AMS Climate Studies has been licensed by 130 institutions since Fall 2010. Our Changing Climate reveals the impact that each of us has on the climate. With this understanding come choices and actions for a more sustainable future.

Feframing Climate Change for Environmental Health.

PubMed

Weems, Caitlin; Subramaniam, Prithwi Raj

2017-04-01

Repeated warnings by the scientific community on the dire consequences of climate change through global warming to the ecology and sustenance of our planet have not been give appropriate attention by the U.S. public. Research has shown that climate change is responsible for catastrophic weather occurrences--such as floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, and heat waves--resulting in environmental and public health issues. The purpose of this report is to examine factors influencing public views on climate change. Theoretical and political perspectives are examined to unpack opinions held by the public in the U.S. on climate change. The Health Belief Model is used as an example to showcase the efficacy of an individual behavior change program in providing the synergy to understand climate change at the microlevel. The concept of reframing is discussed as a strategy to alter how the public views climate change.

The Shift of ERG B-Wave Induced by Hours' Dark Exposure in Rodents

PubMed Central

Li, Dake; Fang, Qi; Yu, Hongbo

2016-01-01

Purpose Dark adaptation can induce a rapid functional shift in the retina, and after that, the retinal function is believed to remain stable during the continuous dark exposure. However, we found that electroretinograms (ERG) b-waves gradually shifted during 24 hours’ dark exposure in rodents. Detailed experiments were designed to explore this non-classical dark adaptation. Methods In vivo ERG recording in adult and developing rodents after light manipulations. Results We revealed a five-fold decrease in ERG b-waves in adult rats that were dark exposed for 24 hours. The ERG b-waves significantly increased within the first hour’s dark exposure, but after that decreased continuously and finally attained steady state after 1 day’s dark exposure. After 3 repetitive, 10 minutes’ light exposure, the dark exposed rats fully recovered. This recovery effect was eye-specific, and light exposure to one eye could not restore the ERGs in the non-exposed eye. The prolonged dark exposure-induced functional shift was also reflected in the down-regulation on the amplitude of intensity-ERG response curve, but the dynamic range of the responsive light intensity remained largely stable. Furthermore, the ERG b-wave shifts occurred in and beyond classical critical period, and in both rats and mice. Importantly, when ERG b-wave greatly shifted, the amplitude of ERG a-wave did not change significantly after the prolonged dark exposure. Conclusions This rapid age-independent ERG change demonstrates a generally existing functional shift in the retina, which is at the entry level of visual system. PMID:27517462

Inadvertent Weather Modification in Urban Areas: Lessons for Global Climate Change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changnon, Stanley A.

1992-05-01

Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the nation's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multi disciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioral implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally.

Using physiology to understand climate-driven changes in disease and their implications for conservation.

PubMed

Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R; Blaustein, Andrew R; Johnson, Pieter T J; Paull, Sara H; Young, Suzanne

2013-01-01

Controversy persists regarding the contributions of climate change to biodiversity losses, through its effects on the spread and emergence of infectious diseases. One of the reasons for this controversy is that there are few mechanistic studies that explore the links among climate change, infectious disease, and declines of host populations. Given that host-parasite interactions are generally mediated by physiological responses, we submit that physiological models could facilitate the prediction of how host-parasite interactions will respond to climate change, and might offer theoretical and terminological cohesion that has been lacking in the climate change-disease literature. We stress that much of the work on how climate influences host-parasite interactions has emphasized changes in climatic means, despite a hallmark of climate change being changes in climatic variability and extremes. Owing to this gap, we highlight how temporal variability in weather, coupled with non-linearities in responses to mean climate, can be used to predict the effects of climate on host-parasite interactions. We also discuss the climate variability hypothesis for disease-related declines, which posits that increased unpredictable temperature variability might provide a temporary advantage to pathogens because they are smaller and have faster metabolisms than their hosts, allowing more rapid acclimatization following a temperature shift. In support of these hypotheses, we provide case studies on the role of climatic variability in host population declines associated with the emergence of the infectious diseases chytridiomycosis, withering syndrome, and malaria. Finally, we present a mathematical model that provides the scaffolding to integrate metabolic theory, physiological mechanisms, and large-scale spatiotemporal processes to predict how simultaneous changes in climatic means, variances, and extremes will affect host-parasite interactions. However, several outstanding questions remain to be answered before investigators can accurately predict how changes in climatic means and variances will affect infectious diseases and the conservation status of host populations.

Climate variability and causes: from the perspective of the Tharaka people of eastern Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Recha, Charles W.; Makokha, George L.; Shisanya, Chris A.

2017-12-01

The study assessed community understanding of climate variability in semi-arid Tharaka sub-county, Kenya. The study used four focus group discussions (FGD) ( N = 48) and a household survey ( N = 326) to obtain information from four agro-ecological zones (AEZs). The results were synthesized and descriptively presented. People in Tharaka sub-county are familiar with the term climate change and associate it with environmental degradation. There are, however, misconceptions and gaps in understanding the causes of climate change. There was a mismatch between community and individual perception of onset and cessation of rainfall—evidence that analysis of the impact of climate change should take into account the scale of interaction. To improve climate change knowledge, there is a need for climate change education by scientific institutions—to provide information on local climatic conditions and global and regional drivers of climate change to local communities.

Global Climate Change Pilot Course Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuenemann, K. C.; Wagner, R.

2011-12-01

In fall 2011 a pilot course on "Global Climate Change" is being offered, which has been proposed to educate urban, diverse, undergraduate students about climate change at the introductory level. The course has been approved to fulfill two general college requirements, a natural sciences requirement that focuses on the scientific method, as well as a global diversity requirement. This course presents the science behind global climate change from an Earth systems and atmospheric science perspective. These concepts then provide the basis to explore the effect of global warming on regions throughout the world. Climate change has been taught as a sub-topic in other courses in the past solely using scientific concepts, with little success in altering the climate change misconceptions of the students. This pilot course will see if new, innovative projects described below can make more of an impact on the students' views of climate change. Results of the successes or failures of these projects will be reported, as well as results of a pre- and post-course questionnaire on climate change given to students taking the course. Students in the class will pair off and choose a global region or country that they will research, write papers on, and then represent in four class discussions spaced throughout the semester. The first report will include details on the current climate of their region and how the climate shapes that region's society and culture. The second report will discuss how that region is contributing to climate change and/or sequestering greenhouse gases. Thirdly, students will discuss observed and predicted changes in that region's climate and what impact it has had, and could have, on their society. Lastly, students will report on what role their region has played in mitigating climate change, any policies their region may have implemented, and how their region can or cannot adapt to future climate changes. They will also try to get a feel for the region's attitude towards climate change science, policy, and the stances taken by other regions on climate change. The professor will provide a model of integrative research using the U.S. as a focus, and on discussion days, prompt a sort of United Nations discussion on each of these topics with the intention of having the students look at climate change from a different point of view that contrasts their current U.S.-centric view, as well as realize the interdependence of regions particularly in regards to climate change.

Search for dark matter in events with energetic, hadronically decaying top quarks and missing transverse momentum at √{s}=13 TeV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sirunyan, A. M.; Tumasyan, A.; Adam, W.; Ambrogi, F.; Asilar, E.; Bergauer, T.; Brandstetter, J.; Brondolin, E.; Dragicevic, M.; Erö, J.; Flechl, M.; Friedl, M.; Frühwirth, R.; Ghete, V. M.; Grossmann, J.; Hrubec, J.; Jeitler, M.; König, A.; Krammer, N.; Krätschmer, I.; Liko, D.; Madlener, T.; Mikulec, I.; Pree, E.; Rad, N.; Rohringer, H.; Schieck, J.; Schöfbeck, R.; Spanring, M.; Spitzbart, D.; Waltenberger, W.; Wittmann, J.; Wulz, C.-E.; Zarucki, M.; Chekhovsky, V.; Mossolov, V.; Suarez Gonzalez, J.; De Wolf, E. A.; Di Croce, D.; Janssen, X.; Lauwers, J.; Van De Klundert, M.; Van Haevermaet, H.; Van Mechelen, P.; Van Remortel, N.; Abu Zeid, S.; Blekman, F.; D'Hondt, J.; De Bruyn, I.; De Clercq, J.; Deroover, K.; Flouris, G.; Lontkovskyi, D.; Lowette, S.; Marchesini, I.; Moortgat, S.; Moreels, L.; Python, Q.; Skovpen, K.; Tavernier, S.; Van Doninck, W.; Van Mulders, P.; Van Parijs, I.; Beghin, D.; Brun, H.; Clerbaux, B.; De Lentdecker, G.; Delannoy, H.; Dorney, B.; Fasanella, G.; Favart, L.; Goldouzian, R.; Grebenyuk, A.; Karapostoli, G.; Lenzi, T.; Luetic, J.; Maerschalk, T.; Marinov, A.; Seva, T.; Starling, E.; Vander Velde, C.; Vanlaer, P.; Vannerom, D.; Yonamine, R.; Zenoni, F.; Zhang, F.; Cimmino, A.; Cornelis, T.; Dobur, D.; Fagot, A.; Gul, M.; Khvastunov, I.; Poyraz, D.; Roskas, C.; Salva, S.; Tytgat, M.; Verbeke, W.; Zaganidis, N.; Bakhshiansohi, H.; Bondu, O.; Brochet, S.; Bruno, G.; Caputo, C.; Caudron, A.; David, P.; De Visscher, S.; Delaere, C.; Delcourt, M.; Francois, B.; Giammanco, A.; Komm, M.; Krintiras, G.; Lemaitre, V.; Magitteri, A.; Mertens, A.; Musich, M.; Piotrzkowski, K.; Quertenmont, L.; Saggio, A.; Vidal Marono, M.; Wertz, S.; Zobec, J.; Beliy, N.; Aldá Júnior, W. L.; Alves, F. L.; Alves, G. A.; Brito, L.; Correa Martins Junior, M.; Hensel, C.; Moraes, A.; Pol, M. E.; Rebello Teles, P.; Belchior Batista Das Chagas, E.; Carvalho, W.; Chinellato, J.; Coelho, E.; Da Costa, E. M.; Da Silveira, G. G.; De Jesus Damiao, D.; Fonseca De Souza, S.; Huertas Guativa, L. M.; Malbouisson, H.; Melo De Almeida, M.; Mora Herrera, C.; Mundim, L.; Nogima, H.; Sanchez Rosas, L. J.; Santoro, A.; Sznajder, A.; Thiel, M.; Tonelli Manganote, E. J.; Torres Da Silva De Araujo, F.; Vilela Pereira, A.; Ahuja, S.; Bernardes, C. A.; Fernandez Perez Tomei, T. R.; Gregores, E. M.; Mercadante, P. G.; Novaes, S. F.; Padula, Sandra S.; Romero Abad, D.; Ruiz Vargas, J. C.; Aleksandrov, A.; Hadjiiska, R.; Iaydjiev, P.; Misheva, M.; Rodozov, M.; Shopova, M.; Sultanov, G.; Dimitrov, A.; Glushkov, I.; Litov, L.; Pavlov, B.; Petkov, P.; Fang, W.; Gao, X.; Yuan, L.; Ahmad, M.; Bian, J. G.; Chen, G. M.; Chen, H. S.; Chen, M.; Chen, Y.; Jiang, C. H.; Leggat, D.; Liao, H.; Liu, Z.; Romeo, F.; Shaheen, S. M.; Spiezia, A.; Tao, J.; Wang, C.; Wang, Z.; Yazgan, E.; Zhang, H.; Zhang, S.; Zhao, J.; Ban, Y.; Chen, G.; Li, Q.; Liu, S.; Mao, Y.; Qian, S. J.; Wang, D.; Xu, Z.; Avila, C.; Cabrera, A.; Carrillo Montoya, C. A.; Chaparro Sierra, L. F.; Florez, C.; González Hernández, C. F.; Ruiz Alvarez, J. D.; Segura Delgado, M. A.; Courbon, B.; Godinovic, N.; Lelas, D.; Puljak, I.; Ribeiro Cipriano, P. M.; Sculac, T.; Antunovic, Z.; Kovac, M.; Brigljevic, V.; Ferencek, D.; Kadija, K.; Mesic, B.; Starodumov, A.; Susa, T.; Ather, M. W.; Attikis, A.; Mavromanolakis, G.; Mousa, J.; Nicolaou, C.; Ptochos, F.; Razis, P. A.; Rykaczewski, H.; Finger, M.; Finger, M.; Carrera Jarrin, E.; El-khateeb, E.; Elgammal, S.; Mohamed, A.; Dewanjee, R. K.; Kadastik, M.; Perrini, L.; Raidal, M.; Tiko, A.; Veelken, C.; Eerola, P.; Kirschenmann, H.; Pekkanen, J.; Voutilainen, M.; Havukainen, J.; Heikkilä, J. K.; Järvinen, T.; Karimäki, V.; Kinnunen, R.; Lampén, T.; Lassila-Perini, K.; Laurila, S.; Lehti, S.; Lindén, T.; Luukka, P.; Siikonen, H.; Tuominen, E.; Tuominiemi, J.; Talvitie, J.; Tuuva, T.; Besancon, M.; Couderc, F.; Dejardin, M.; Denegri, D.; Faure, J. L.; Ferri, F.; Ganjour, S.; Ghosh, S.; Givernaud, A.; Gras, P.; Hamel de Monchenault, G.; Jarry, P.; Kucher, I.; Leloup, C.; Locci, E.; Machet, M.; Malcles, J.; Negro, G.; Rander, J.; Rosowsky, A.; Sahin, M. Ö.; Titov, M.; Abdulsalam, A.; Amendola, C.; Antropov, I.; Baffioni, S.; Beaudette, F.; Busson, P.; Cadamuro, L.; Charlot, C.; Granier de Cassagnac, R.; Jo, M.; Lisniak, S.; Lobanov, A.; Martin Blanco, J.; Nguyen, M.; Ochando, C.; Ortona, G.; Paganini, P.; Pigard, P.; Salerno, R.; Sauvan, J. B.; Sirois, Y.; Stahl Leiton, A. G.; Strebler, T.; Yilmaz, Y.; Zabi, A.; Zghiche, A.; Agram, J.-L.; Andrea, J.; Bloch, D.; Brom, J.-M.; Buttignol, M.; Chabert, E. C.; Chanon, N.; Collard, C.; Conte, E.; Coubez, X.; Fontaine, J.-C.; Gelé, D.; Goerlach, U.; Jansová, M.; Le Bihan, A.-C.; Tonon, N.; Van Hove, P.; Gadrat, S.; Beauceron, S.; Bernet, C.; Boudoul, G.; Chierici, R.; Contardo, D.; Depasse, P.; El Mamouni, H.; Fay, J.; Finco, L.; Gascon, S.; Gouzevitch, M.; Grenier, G.; Ille, B.; Lagarde, F.; Laktineh, I. B.; Lethuillier, M.; Mirabito, L.; Pequegnot, A. L.; Perries, S.; Popov, A.; Sordini, V.; Vander Donckt, M.; Viret, S.; Khvedelidze, A.; Tsamalaidze, Z.; Autermann, C.; Feld, L.; Kiesel, M. K.; Klein, K.; Lipinski, M.; Preuten, M.; Schomakers, C.; Schulz, J.; Zhukov, V.; Albert, A.; Dietz-Laursonn, E.; Duchardt, D.; Endres, M.; Erdmann, M.; Erdweg, S.; Esch, T.; Fischer, R.; Güth, A.; Hamer, M.; Hebbeker, T.; Heidemann, C.; Hoepfner, K.; Knutzen, S.; Merschmeyer, M.; Meyer, A.; Millet, P.; Mukherjee, S.; Pook, T.; Radziej, M.; Reithler, H.; Rieger, M.; Scheuch, F.; Teyssier, D.; Thüer, S.; Flügge, G.; Kargoll, B.; Kress, T.; Künsken, A.; Müller, T.; Nehrkorn, A.; Nowack, A.; Pistone, C.; Pooth, O.; Stahl, A.; Aldaya Martin, M.; Arndt, T.; Asawatangtrakuldee, C.; Beernaert, K.; Behnke, O.; Behrens, U.; Bermúdez Martínez, A.; Bin Anuar, A. A.; Borras, K.; Botta, V.; Campbell, A.; Connor, P.; Contreras-Campana, C.; Costanza, F.; Diez Pardos, C.; Eckerlin, G.; Eckstein, D.; Eichhorn, T.; Eren, E.; Gallo, E.; Garay Garcia, J.; Geiser, A.; Gizhko, A.; Grados Luyando, J. M.; Grohsjean, A.; Gunnellini, P.; Guthoff, M.; Harb, A.; Hauk, J.; Hempel, M.; Jung, H.; Kalogeropoulos, A.; Kasemann, M.; Keaveney, J.; Kleinwort, C.; Korol, I.; Krücker, D.; Lange, W.; Lelek, A.; Lenz, T.; Leonard, J.; Lipka, K.; Lohmann, W.; Mankel, R.; Melzer-Pellmann, I.-A.; Meyer, A. B.; Mittag, G.; Mnich, J.; Mussgiller, A.; Ntomari, E.; Pitzl, D.; Raspereza, A.; Savitskyi, M.; Saxena, P.; Shevchenko, R.; Spannagel, S.; Stefaniuk, N.; Van Onsem, G. P.; Walsh, R.; Wen, Y.; Wichmann, K.; Wissing, C.; Zenaiev, O.; Aggleton, R.; Bein, S.; Blobel, V.; Centis Vignali, M.; Dreyer, T.; Garutti, E.; Gonzalez, D.; Haller, J.; Hinzmann, A.; Hoffmann, M.; Karavdina, A.; Klanner, R.; Kogler, R.; Kovalchuk, N.; Kurz, S.; Lapsien, T.; Marconi, D.; Meyer, M.; Niedziela, M.; Nowatschin, D.; Pantaleo, F.; Peiffer, T.; Perieanu, A.; Scharf, C.; Schleper, P.; Schmidt, A.; Schumann, S.; Schwandt, J.; Sonneveld, J.; Stadie, H.; Steinbrück, G.; Stober, F. M.; Stöver, M.; Tholen, H.; Troendle, D.; Usai, E.; Vanhoefer, A.; Vormwald, B.; Akbiyik, M.; Barth, C.; Baselga, M.; Baur, S.; Butz, E.; Caspart, R.; Chwalek, T.; Colombo, F.; De Boer, W.; Dierlamm, A.; Faltermann, N.; Freund, B.; Friese, R.; Giffels, M.; Harrendorf, M. A.; Hartmann, F.; Heindl, S. M.; Husemann, U.; Kassel, F.; Kudella, S.; Mildner, H.; Mozer, M. U.; Müller, Th.; Plagge, M.; Quast, G.; Rabbertz, K.; Schröder, M.; Shvetsov, I.; Sieber, G.; Simonis, H. J.; Ulrich, R.; Wayand, S.; Weber, M.; Weiler, T.; Williamson, S.; Wöhrmann, C.; Wolf, R.; Anagnostou, G.; Daskalakis, G.; Geralis, T.; Kyriakis, A.; Loukas, D.; Topsis-Giotis, I.; Karathanasis, G.; Kesisoglou, S.; Panagiotou, A.; Saoulidou, N.; Kousouris, K.; Evangelou, I.; Foudas, C.; Kokkas, P.; Mallios, S.; Manthos, N.; Papadopoulos, I.; Paradas, E.; Strologas, J.; Triantis, F. A.; Csanad, M.; Filipovic, N.; Pasztor, G.; Surányi, O.; Veres, G. 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A.; Hanson, G.; Heilman, J.; Kennedy, E.; Lacroix, F.; Long, O. R.; Olmedo Negrete, M.; Paneva, M. I.; Si, W.; Wang, L.; Wei, H.; Wimpenny, S.; Yates, B. R.; Branson, J. G.; Cittolin, S.; Derdzinski, M.; Gerosa, R.; Gilbert, D.; Hashemi, B.; Holzner, A.; Klein, D.; Kole, G.; Krutelyov, V.; Letts, J.; Macneill, I.; Masciovecchio, M.; Olivito, D.; Padhi, S.; Pieri, M.; Sani, M.; Sharma, V.; Simon, S.; Tadel, M.; Vartak, A.; Wasserbaech, S.; Wood, J.; Würthwein, F.; Yagil, A.; Zevi Della Porta, G.; Amin, N.; Bhandari, R.; Bradmiller-Feld, J.; Campagnari, C.; Dishaw, A.; Dutta, V.; Franco Sevilla, M.; George, C.; Golf, F.; Gouskos, L.; Gran, J.; Heller, R.; Incandela, J.; Ovcharova, A.; Qu, H.; Richman, J.; Stuart, D.; Suarez, I.; Yoo, J.; Anderson, D.; Bornheim, A.; Lawhorn, J. M.; Newman, H. B.; Nguyen, T.; Pena, C.; Spiropulu, M.; Vlimant, J. R.; Xie, S.; Zhang, Z.; Zhu, R. Y.; Andrews, M. B.; Ferguson, T.; Mudholkar, T.; Paulini, M.; Russ, J.; Sun, M.; Vogel, H.; Vorobiev, I.; Weinberg, M.; Cumalat, J. P.; Ford, W. T.; Jensen, F.; Johnson, A.; Krohn, M.; Leontsinis, S.; Mulholland, T.; Stenson, K.; Wagner, S. R.; Alexander, J.; Chaves, J.; Chu, J.; Dittmer, S.; Mcdermott, K.; Mirman, N.; Patterson, J. R.; Quach, D.; Rinkevicius, A.; Ryd, A.; Skinnari, L.; Soffi, L.; Tan, S. M.; Tao, Z.; Thom, J.; Tucker, J.; Wittich, P.; Zientek, M.; Abdullin, S.; Albrow, M.; Alyari, M.; Apollinari, G.; Apresyan, A.; Apyan, A.; Banerjee, S.; Bauerdick, L. A. T.; Beretvas, A.; Berryhill, J.; Bhat, P. C.; Bolla, G.; Burkett, K.; Butler, J. N.; Canepa, A.; Cerati, G. B.; Cheung, H. W. K.; Chlebana, F.; Cremonesi, M.; Duarte, J.; Elvira, V. D.; Freeman, J.; Gecse, Z.; Gottschalk, E.; Gray, L.; Green, D.; Grünendahl, S.; Gutsche, O.; Harris, R. M.; Hasegawa, S.; Hirschauer, J.; Hu, Z.; Jayatilaka, B.; Jindariani, S.; Johnson, M.; Joshi, U.; Klima, B.; Kreis, B.; Lammel, S.; Lincoln, D.; Lipton, R.; Liu, M.; Liu, T.; Lopes De Sá, R.; Lykken, J.; Maeshima, K.; Magini, N.; Marraffino, J. M.; Mason, D.; McBride, P.; Merkel, P.; Mrenna, S.; Nahn, S.; O'Dell, V.; Pedro, K.; Prokofyev, O.; Rakness, G.; Ristori, L.; Schneider, B.; Sexton-Kennedy, E.; Soha, A.; Spalding, W. J.; Spiegel, L.; Stoynev, S.; Strait, J.; Strobbe, N.; Taylor, L.; Tkaczyk, S.; Tran, N. V.; Uplegger, L.; Vaandering, E. W.; Vernieri, C.; Verzocchi, M.; Vidal, R.; Wang, M.; Weber, H. A.; Whitbeck, A.; Acosta, D.; Avery, P.; Bortignon, P.; Bourilkov, D.; Brinkerhoff, A.; Carnes, A.; Carver, M.; Curry, D.; Field, R. D.; Furic, I. K.; Gleyzer, S. V.; Joshi, B. M.; Konigsberg, J.; Korytov, A.; Kotov, K.; Ma, P.; Matchev, K.; Mei, H.; Mitselmakher, G.; Rank, D.; Shi, K.; Sperka, D.; Terentyev, N.; Thomas, L.; Wang, J.; Wang, S.; Yelton, J.; Joshi, Y. R.; Linn, S.; Markowitz, P.; Rodriguez, J. L.; Ackert, A.; Adams, T.; Askew, A.; Hagopian, S.; Hagopian, V.; Johnson, K. F.; Kolberg, T.; Martinez, G.; Perry, T.; Prosper, H.; Saha, A.; Santra, A.; Sharma, V.; Yohay, R.; Baarmand, M. M.; Bhopatkar, V.; Colafranceschi, S.; Hohlmann, M.; Noonan, D.; Roy, T.; Yumiceva, F.; Adams, M. R.; Apanasevich, L.; Berry, D.; Betts, R. R.; Cavanaugh, R.; Chen, X.; Evdokimov, O.; Gerber, C. E.; Hangal, D. A.; Hofman, D. J.; Jung, K.; Kamin, J.; Sandoval Gonzalez, I. D.; Tonjes, M. B.; Trauger, H.; Varelas, N.; Wang, H.; Wu, Z.; Zhang, J.; Bilki, B.; Clarida, W.; Dilsiz, K.; Durgut, S.; Gandrajula, R. P.; Haytmyradov, M.; Khristenko, V.; Merlo, J.-P.; Mermerkaya, H.; Mestvirishvili, A.; Moeller, A.; Nachtman, J.; Ogul, H.; Onel, Y.; Ozok, F.; Penzo, A.; Snyder, C.; Tiras, E.; Wetzel, J.; Yi, K.; Blumenfeld, B.; Cocoros, A.; Eminizer, N.; Fehling, D.; Feng, L.; Gritsan, A. V.; Maksimovic, P.; Roskes, J.; Sarica, U.; Swartz, M.; Xiao, M.; You, C.; Al-bataineh, A.; Baringer, P.; Bean, A.; Boren, S.; Bowen, J.; Castle, J.; Khalil, S.; Kropivnitskaya, A.; Majumder, D.; Mcbrayer, W.; Murray, M.; Royon, C.; Sanders, S.; Schmitz, E.; Tapia Takaki, J. D.; Wang, Q.; Ivanov, A.; Kaadze, K.; Maravin, Y.; Mohammadi, A.; Saini, L. K.; Skhirtladze, N.; Toda, S.; Rebassoo, F.; Wright, D.; Anelli, C.; Baden, A.; Baron, O.; Belloni, A.; Calvert, B.; Eno, S. C.; Feng, Y.; Ferraioli, C.; Hadley, N. J.; Jabeen, S.; Jeng, G. Y.; Kellogg, R. G.; Kunkle, J.; Mignerey, A. C.; Ricci-Tam, F.; Shin, Y. H.; Skuja, A.; Tonwar, S. C.; Abercrombie, D.; Allen, B.; Azzolini, V.; Barbieri, R.; Baty, A.; Bi, R.; Brandt, S.; Busza, W.; Cali, I. A.; D'Alfonso, M.; Demiragli, Z.; Gomez Ceballos, G.; Goncharov, M.; Hsu, D.; Hu, M.; Iiyama, Y.; Innocenti, G. M.; Klute, M.; Kovalskyi, D.; Lai, Y. S.; Lee, Y.-J.; Levin, A.; Luckey, P. D.; Maier, B.; Marini, A. C.; Mcginn, C.; Mironov, C.; Narayanan, S.; Niu, X.; Paus, C.; Roland, C.; Roland, G.; Salfeld-Nebgen, J.; Stephans, G. S. F.; Tatar, K.; Velicanu, D.; Wang, J.; Wang, T. W.; Wyslouch, B.; Benvenuti, A. C.; Chatterjee, R. M.; Evans, A.; Hansen, P.; Hiltbrand, J.; Kalafut, S.; Kubota, Y.; Lesko, Z.; Mans, J.; Nourbakhsh, S.; Ruckstuhl, N.; Rusack, R.; Turkewitz, J.; Wadud, M. A.; Acosta, J. G.; Oliveros, S.; Avdeeva, E.; Bloom, K.; Claes, D. R.; Fangmeier, C.; Gonzalez Suarez, R.; Kamalieddin, R.; Kravchenko, I.; Monroy, J.; Siado, J. E.; Snow, G. R.; Stieger, B.; Dolen, J.; Godshalk, A.; Harrington, C.; Iashvili, I.; Nguyen, D.; Parker, A.; Rappoccio, S.; Roozbahani, B.; Alverson, G.; Barberis, E.; Hortiangtham, A.; Massironi, A.; Morse, D. M.; Orimoto, T.; Teixeira De Lima, R.; Trocino, D.; Wood, D.; Bhattacharya, S.; Charaf, O.; Hahn, K. A.; Mucia, N.; Odell, N.; Pollack, B.; Schmitt, M. H.; Sung, K.; Trovato, M.; Velasco, M.; Dev, N.; Hildreth, M.; Hurtado Anampa, K.; Jessop, C.; Karmgard, D. J.; Kellams, N.; Lannon, K.; Loukas, N.; Marinelli, N.; Meng, F.; Mueller, C.; Musienko, Y.; Planer, M.; Reinsvold, A.; Ruchti, R.; Smith, G.; Taroni, S.; Wayne, M.; Wolf, M.; Woodard, A.; Alimena, J.; Antonelli, L.; Bylsma, B.; Durkin, L. S.; Flowers, S.; Francis, B.; Hart, A.; Hill, C.; Ji, W.; Liu, B.; Luo, W.; Winer, B. L.; Wulsin, H. W.; Cooperstein, S.; Driga, O.; Elmer, P.; Hardenbrook, J.; Hebda, P.; Higginbotham, S.; Lange, D.; Luo, J.; Marlow, D.; Mei, K.; Ojalvo, I.; Olsen, J.; Palmer, C.; Piroué, P.; Stickland, D.; Tully, C.; Malik, S.; Norberg, S.; Barker, A.; Barnes, V. E.; Das, S.; Folgueras, S.; Gutay, L.; Jha, M. K.; Jones, M.; Jung, A. W.; Khatiwada, A.; Miller, D. H.; Neumeister, N.; Peng, C. C.; Qiu, H.; Schulte, J. F.; Sun, J.; Wang, F.; Xie, W.; Cheng, T.; Parashar, N.; Stupak, J.; Adair, A.; Chen, Z.; Ecklund, K. M.; Freed, S.; Geurts, F. J. M.; Guilbaud, M.; Kilpatrick, M.; Li, W.; Michlin, B.; Northup, M.; Padley, B. P.; Roberts, J.; Rorie, J.; Shi, W.; Tu, Z.; Zabel, J.; Zhang, A.; Bodek, A.; de Barbaro, P.; Demina, R.; Duh, Y. t.; Ferbel, T.; Galanti, M.; Garcia-Bellido, A.; Han, J.; Hindrichs, O.; Khukhunaishvili, A.; Lo, K. H.; Tan, P.; Verzetti, M.; Ciesielski, R.; Goulianos, K.; Mesropian, C.; Agapitos, A.; Chou, J. P.; Gershtein, Y.; Gómez Espinosa, T. A.; Halkiadakis, E.; Heindl, M.; Hughes, E.; Kaplan, S.; Kunnawalkam Elayavalli, R.; Kyriacou, S.; Lath, A.; Montalvo, R.; Nash, K.; Osherson, M.; Saka, H.; Salur, S.; Schnetzer, S.; Sheffield, D.; Somalwar, S.; Stone, R.; Thomas, S.; Thomassen, P.; Walker, M.; Delannoy, A. G.; Foerster, M.; Heideman, J.; Riley, G.; Rose, K.; Spanier, S.; Thapa, K.; Bouhali, O.; Castaneda Hernandez, A.; Celik, A.; Dalchenko, M.; De Mattia, M.; Delgado, A.; Dildick, S.; Eusebi, R.; Gilmore, J.; Huang, T.; Kamon, T.; Mueller, R.; Pakhotin, Y.; Patel, R.; Perloff, A.; Perniè, L.; Rathjens, D.; Safonov, A.; Tatarinov, A.; Ulmer, K. A.; Akchurin, N.; Damgov, J.; De Guio, F.; Dudero, P. R.; Faulkner, J.; Gurpinar, E.; Kunori, S.; Lamichhane, K.; Lee, S. W.; Libeiro, T.; Mengke, T.; Muthumuni, S.; Peltola, T.; Undleeb, S.; Volobouev, I.; Wang, Z.; Greene, S.; Gurrola, A.; Janjam, R.; Johns, W.; Maguire, C.; Melo, A.; Ni, H.; Padeken, K.; Sheldon, P.; Tuo, S.; Velkovska, J.; Xu, Q.; Arenton, M. W.; Barria, P.; Cox, B.; Hirosky, R.; Joyce, M.; Ledovskoy, A.; Li, H.; Neu, C.; Sinthuprasith, T.; Wang, Y.; Wolfe, E.; Xia, F.; Harr, R.; Karchin, P. E.; Poudyal, N.; Sturdy, J.; Thapa, P.; Zaleski, S.; Brodski, M.; Buchanan, J.; Caillol, C.; Dasu, S.; Dodd, L.; Duric, S.; Gomber, B.; Grothe, M.; Herndon, M.; Hervé, A.; Hussain, U.; Klabbers, P.; Lanaro, A.; Levine, A.; Long, K.; Loveless, R.; Polese, G.; Ruggles, T.; Savin, A.; Smith, N.; Smith, W. H.; Taylor, D.; Woods, N.

2018-06-01

A search for dark matter is conducted in events with large missing transverse momentum and a hadronically decaying, Lorentz-boosted top quark. This study is performed using proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, in data recorded by the CMS detector in 2016 at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36 fb-1. New substructure techniques, including the novel use of energy correlation functions, are utilized to identify the decay products of the top quark. With no significant deviations observed from predictions of the standard model, limits are placed on the production of new heavy bosons coupling to dark matter particles. For a scenario with purely vector-like or purely axial-vector-like flavor changing neutral currents, mediator masses between 0.20 and 1.75 TeV are excluded at 95% confidence level, given a sufficiently small dark matter mass. Scalar resonances decaying into a top quark and a dark matter fermion are excluded for masses below 3.4 TeV, assuming a dark matter mass of 100 GeV.

Search for dark matter in events with energetic, hadronically decaying top quarks and missing transverse momentum at $$ \\sqrt{s}=13 $$ TeV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sirunyan, Albert M; et al.

A search for dark matter is conducted in events with large missing transverse momentum and a hadronically decaying, Lorentz-boosted top quark. This study is performed using proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, in data recorded by the CMS detector in 2016 at the LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 36 fbmore » $$^{-1}$$. New substructure techniques, including the novel use of energy correlation functions, are utilized to identify the decay products of the top quark. With no significant deviations observed from predictions of the standard model, limits are placed on the production of new heavy bosons coupling to dark matter particles. For a scenario with purely vector-like or purely axial-vector-like flavor changing neutral currents, mediator masses between 0.20 and 1.75 TeV are excluded at 95% confidence level, given a sufficiently small dark matter mass. Scalar resonances decaying into a top quark and a dark matter fermion are excluded for masses below 3.4 TeV, assuming a dark matter mass of 100 GeV.« less

Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

2014-12-01

Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

Human values and beliefs and concern about climate change: a Bayesian longitudinal analysis.

PubMed

Prati, Gabriele; Pietrantoni, Luca; Albanesi, Cinzia

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of human values on beliefs and concern about climate change using a longitudinal design and Bayesian analysis. A sample of 298 undergraduate/master students filled out the same questionnaire on two occasions at an interval of 2 months. The questionnaire included measures of beliefs and concern about climate change (i.e., perceived consequences, risk perception, and skepticism) and human values (i.e., the Portrait Values Questionnaire). After controlling for gender and the respective baseline score, universalism at Time 1 was associated with higher levels of perceived consequences of climate change and lower levels of climate change skepticism. Self-direction at Time 1 predicted Time 2 climate change risk perception and perceived consequences of climate change. Hedonism at Time 1 was associated with Time 2 climate change risk perception. The other human values at Time 1 were not associated with any of the measures of beliefs and concern about climate change at Time 2. The results of this study suggest that a focus on universalism and self-direction values seems to be a more successful approach to stimulate public engagement with climate change than a focus on other human values.

What is motivating middle-school science teachers to teach climate change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNeal, Peggy; Petcovic, Heather; Reeves, Patricia

2017-05-01

Adoption of science content standards that include anthropogenic climate change has prompted widespread instruction in climate change for the first time. However, the controversial nature of the topic can be daunting and many teachers share misconceptions that lead to weak treatment of climate change in classrooms. Nevertheless, numerous teachers have embraced the topic and are providing illustrations of deliberate climate change education. In this study we investigated teacher motivation using focus groups with middle school teachers who currently teach climate change. Qualitative analysis of the collective teacher voices yielded underlying motivations. Our findings suggest that these teachers' interest in environmentalism naturally translates to climate change advocacy and motivates teaching the topic. Their knowledge and expertise gives them confidence to teach it. These teachers see themselves as scientists, therefore their views align with the scientific consensus. They practice authentic scientific research with their students, thus confirming valued characteristics of their scientist identity. Finally, our findings suggest that teaching climate change gives these teachers a sense of hope as they impact the future through their students. This study contrasts with skepticism over the state of climate change education and contributes to an understanding of how climate change education is motivated in teachers.

Convinced, ambivalent or annoyed: Tyrolean ski tourism stakeholders and their perceptions of climate change☆

PubMed Central

Trawöger, Lisa

2014-01-01

Its focus on snow-dependent activities makes Alpine winter tourism especially sensitive to climate change. Stakeholder risk perceptions are a key factor in adaptation to climate change because they fundamentally drive or constrain stakeholder action. This paper examines climate change perceptions of winter tourism stakeholders in Tyrol (Austria). Using a qualitative approach, expert interviews were conducted. Four opinion categories reflecting different attitudes toward climate change issues were identified: convinced planners, annoyed deniers, ambivalent optimists, convinced wait-and-seers. Although the findings generally indicate a growing awareness of climate change, this awareness is mainly limited to perceiving the issue as a global phenomenon. Awareness of regional and branch-specific consequences of climate change that lead to a demand for action could not be identified. Current technical strategies, like snowmaking, are not primarily climate-induced. At present, coping with climate change is not a priority for risk management. The findings point out the importance of gaining and transferring knowledge of regional and branch-specific consequences of climate change in order to induce action at the destination level. PMID:27064520

Measuring the Dynamics of Climate Change Communication in Mass Media and Social Networks with Computer-Assisted Content Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirilenko, A.; Stepchenkova, S.

2012-12-01

To date, multiple authors have examined media representations of and public attitudes towards climate change, as well as how these representations and attitudes differ from scientific knowledge on the issue of climate change. Content analysis of newspaper publications, TV news, and, recently, Internet blogs has allowed for identification of major discussion themes within the climate change domain (e.g., newspaper trends, comparison of climate change discourse in different countries, contrasting liberal vs. conservative press). The majority of these studies, however, have processed texts manually, limiting textual population size, restricting the analysis to a relatively small number of themes, and using time-expensive coding procedures. The use of computer-assisted text analysis (CATA) software is important because the difficulties with manual processing become more severe with an increased volume of data. We developed a CATA approach that allows a large body of text materials to be surveyed in a quantifiable, objective, transparent, and time-efficient manner. While staying within the quantitative tradition of content analysis, the approach allows for an interpretation of the public discourse closer to one of more qualitatively oriented methods. The methodology used in this study contains several steps: (1) sample selection; (2) data preparation for computer processing and obtaining a matrix of keyword frequencies; (3) identification of themes in the texts using Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA); (4) combining identified themes into higher order themes using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA); (5) interpretation of obtained public discourse themes using factor scores; and (6) tracking the development of the main themes of the climate change discourse through time. In the report, we concentrate on two examples of CATA applied to study public perception of climate change. First example is an analysis of temporal change in public discourse on climate change. Applying CATA to a conservatively selected sample of 4043 articles published on climate change in The New York Times from 1995, we found a considerable change in major topics of discussion. One of the most significant tendencies is a gradual decline in the volume of material within the "Science" topic and an expansion of themes classified under the "Politics" topic. The second example is the analysis of public ability to detect climate change, in which we used a database of over 1 million Twitter messages on climate change that we have collected. We compared the intensity of tweeting on climate change with the "common-sense climate index" by Hansen et al (1999) and found that the weather extremes experienced at a certain location is immediately reflected in the number of tweets discussing climate change originating from that location. Although the CATA approach certainly has its limitations, we are convinced that it has a number of advantages over manual processing: it is able to analyze large textual bodies, is more time efficient, has a higher level of detail, enhances the richness of interpretation, and is able to reliably track discourse development through time.

Forecasting carbon budget under climate change and CO2 fertilization for subtropical region in China using integrated biosphere simulator (IBIS) model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Q.; Jiang, H.; Liu, J.; Peng, C.; Fang, X.; Yu, S.; Zhou, G.; Wei, X.; Ju, W.

2011-01-01

The regional carbon budget of the climatic transition zone may be very sensitive to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This study simulated the carbon cycles under these changes using process-based ecosystem models. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM), was used to evaluate the impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on net primary production (NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP), and the vegetation structure of terrestrial ecosystems in Zhejiang province (area 101,800 km2, mainly covered by subtropical evergreen forest and warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest) which is located in the subtropical climate area of China. Two general circulation models (HADCM3 and CGCM3) representing four IPCC climate change scenarios (HC3AA, HC3GG, CGCM-sresa2, and CGCM-sresb1) were used as climate inputs for IBIS. Results show that simulated historical biomass and NPP are consistent with field and other modelled data, which makes the analysis of future carbon budget reliable. The results indicate that NPP over the entire Zhejiang province was about 55 Mt C yr-1 during the last half of the 21st century. An NPP increase of about 24 Mt C by the end of the 21st century was estimated with the combined effects of increasing CO2 and climate change. A slight NPP increase of about 5 Mt C was estimated under the climate change alone scenario. Forests in Zhejiang are currently acting as a carbon sink with an average NEP of about 2.5 Mt C yr-1. NEP will increase to about 5 Mt C yr-1 by the end of the 21st century with the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. However, climate change alone will reduce the forest carbon sequestration of Zhejiang's forests. Future climate warming will substantially change the vegetation cover types; warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest will be gradually substituted by subtropical evergreen forest. An increasing CO2 concentration will have little contribution to vegetation changes. Simulated NPP shows geographic patterns consistent with temperature to a certain extent, and precipitation is not the limiting factor for forest NPP in the subtropical climate conditions. There is no close relationship between the spatial pattern of NEP and climate condition.

Forecasting carbon budget under climate change and CO 2 fertilization for subtropical region in China using integrated biosphere simulator (IBIS) model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Q.; Jiang, H.; Liu, J.; Peng, C.; Fang, X.; Yu, S.; Zhou, G.; Wei, X.; Ju, W.

2011-01-01

The regional carbon budget of the climatic transition zone may be very sensitive to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. This study simulated the carbon cycles under these changes using process-based ecosystem models. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM), was used to evaluate the impacts of climate change and CO 2 fertilization on net primary production (NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP), and the vegetation structure of terrestrial ecosystems in Zhejiang province (area 101,800 km 2, mainly covered by subtropical evergreen forest and warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest) which is located in the subtropical climate area of China. Two general circulation models (HADCM3 and CGCM3) representing four IPCC climate change scenarios (HC3AA, HC3GG, CGCM-sresa2, and CGCM-sresb1) were used as climate inputs for IBIS. Results show that simulated historical biomass and NPP are consistent with field and other modelled data, which makes the analysis of future carbon budget reliable. The results indicate that NPP over the entire Zhejiang province was about 55 Mt C yr -1 during the last half of the 21 st century. An NPP increase of about 24 Mt C by the end of the 21 st century was estimated with the combined effects of increasing CO 2 and climate change. A slight NPP increase of about 5 Mt C was estimated under the climate change alone scenario. Forests in Zhejiang are currently acting as a carbon sink with an average NEP of about 2.5 Mt C yr -1. NEP will increase to about 5 Mt C yr -1 by the end of the 21 st century with the increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration and climate change. However, climate change alone will reduce the forest carbon sequestration of Zhejiang's forests. Future climate warming will substantially change the vegetation cover types; warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest will be gradually substituted by subtropical evergreen forest. An increasing CO 2 concentration will have little contribution to vegetation changes. Simulated NPP shows geographic patterns consistent with temperature to a certain extent, and precipitation is not the limiting factor for forest NPP in the subtropical climate conditions. There is no close relationship between the spatial pattern of NEP and climate condition.

Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya

PubMed Central

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S.

2014-01-01

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11–4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species. PMID:25180515

Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya.

PubMed

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S

2014-01-01

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11-4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species.

Response of evapotranspiration to changes in land use and land cover and climate in China during 2001-2013.

PubMed

Li, Gen; Zhang, Fangmin; Jing, Yuanshu; Liu, Yibo; Sun, Ge

2017-10-15

Land surface evapotranspiration (ET) is a central component of the Earth's global energy balance and water cycle. Understanding ET is important in quantifying the impacts of human influences on the hydrological cycle and thus helps improving water use efficiency and strengthening water use planning and watershed management. China has experienced tremendous land use and land cover changes (LUCC) as a result of urbanization and ecological restoration under a broad background of climate change. This study used MODIS data products to analyze how LUCC and climate change affected ET in China in the period 2001-2013. We examined the separate contribution to the estimated ET changes by combining LUCC and climate data. Results showed that the average annual ET in China decreased at a rate of -0.6mm/yr from 2001 to 2013. Areas in which ET decreased significantly were mainly distributed in the northwest China, the central of southwest China, and most regions of south central and east China. The trends of four climatic factors including air temperature, wind speed, sunshine duration, and relative humidity were determined, while the contributions of these four factors to ET were quantified by combining the ET and climate datasets. Among the four climatic factors, sunshine duration and wind speed had the greatest influence on ET. LUCC data from 2001 to 2013 showed that forests, grasslands and croplands in China mutually replaced each other. The reduction of forests had much greater effects on ET than change by other land cover types. Finally, through quantitative separation of the distinct effects of climate change and LUCC on ET, we conclude that climate change was the more significant than LULC change in influencing ET in China during the period 2001-2013. Effective water resource management and vegetation-based ecological restoration efforts in China must consider the effects of climate change on ET and water availability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Increasing Mississippi river discharge throughout the twenty-first century influenced by changes in climate, land use and atmospheric CO2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, B.; Tian, H.; Ren, W.; Yang, J.; Yang, Q.; He, R.; Cai, W. J.; Lohrenz, S. E.

2014-12-01

Previous studies have demonstrated that changes in temperature and precipitation (hereafter climate change) would influence river discharge, but the relative importance of climate change, land use, and elevated atmospheric CO2 have not yet been fully investigated. Here we examined how river discharge in the Mississippi River basin in the 21st century might be influenced by these factors using the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model driven by atmospheric CO2, downscaled GCMs climate and land use scenarios. Our results suggest that river discharge would be substantially enhanced (10.7-59.8%) by the 2090s compared to the recent decade (2000s), though large discrepancies exist among different climate, atmospheric CO2, and land use change scenarios. Our factorial analyses further indicate that the combined effects of land use change and human-induced atmospheric CO2 elevation on river discharge would outweigh climate change effect under the high emission scenario (A2) of Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Our study offers the first attempt to project potential changes in river discharge in response to multiple future environmental changes. It demonstrates the importance of land use change and atmospheric CO2 concentrations in projecting future changes in hydrologic processes. The projected increase river discharge implies that riverine fluxes of carbon, nutrients and pesticide from the MRB to the coastal regions would increase in the future, and thus may influence the states of ocean acidification and hypoxia and deteriorate ocean water quality. Further efforts will also be needed to account for additional environmental factors (such as nitrogen deposition, tropospheric ozone pollution, dam construction, etc.) in projecting changes in the hydrological cycle.

Aerosol-Induced Radiative Flux Changes Off the United States Mid-Atlantic Coast: Comparison of Values Calculated from Sunphotometer and In Situ Data with Those Measured by Airborne Pyranometer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, P. B.; Livingston, J. M.; Hignett, P.; Kinne, S.; Wong, J.; Chien, A.; Bergstrom, R.; Durkee, P.; Hobbs, P. V.

2000-01-01

The Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment (TARFOX) measured a variety of aerosol radiative effects (including flux changes) while simultaneously measuring the chemical, physical, and optical properties of the responsible aerosol particles. Here we use TARFOX-determined aerosol and surface properties to compute shortwave radiative flux changes for a variety of aerosol situations, with midvisible optical depths ranging from 0.06 to 0.55. We calculate flux changes by several techniques with varying degrees of sophistication, in part to investigate the sensitivity of results to computational approach. We then compare computed flux changes to those determined from aircraft measurements. Calculations using several approaches yield downward and upward flux changes that agree with measurements. The agreement demonstrates closure (i.e. consistency) among the TARFOX-derived aerosol properties, modeling techniques, and radiative flux measurements. Agreement between calculated and measured downward flux changes is best when the aerosols are modeled as moderately absorbing (midvisible single-scattering albedos between about 0.89 and 0.93), in accord with independent measurements of the TARPOX aerosol. The calculated values for instantaneous daytime upwelling flux changes are in the range +14 to +48 W/sq m for midvisible optical depths between 0.2 and 0.55. These values are about 30 to 100 times the global-average direct forcing expected for the global-average sulfate aerosol optical depth of 0.04. The reasons for the larger flux changes in TARFOX include the relatively large optical depths and the focus on cloud-free, daytime conditions over the dark ocean surface. These are the conditions that produce major aerosol radiative forcing events and contribute to any global-average climate effect.

Polarizing news? Representations of threat and efficacy in leading US newspapers' coverage of climate change.

PubMed

Feldman, Lauren; Hart, P Sol; Milosevic, Tijana

2017-05-01

This study examines non-editorial news coverage in leading US newspapers as a source of ideological differences on climate change. A quantitative content analysis compared how the threat of climate change and efficacy for actions to address it were represented in climate change coverage across The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and USA Today between 2006 and 2011. Results show that The Wall Street Journal was least likely to discuss the impacts of and threat posed by climate change and most likely to include negative efficacy information and use conflict and negative economic framing when discussing actions to address climate change. The inclusion of positive efficacy information was similar across newspapers. Also, across all newspapers, climate impacts and actions to address climate change were more likely to be discussed separately than together in the same article. Implications for public engagement and ideological polarization are discussed.

Patterns in DOC Concentration and Composition in Tundra Watersheds in the Kolyma River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behnke, M. I.; Schade, J. D.; Fiske, G. J.; Whittinghill, K. A.; Zimov, N.

2014-12-01

Much of the world's soil carbon is frozen in permafrost in the Arctic. As the climate warms and permafrost thaws, this carbon will again be actively cycled. Whether it is exported to the ocean or released as greenhouse gases to the atmosphere depends on the form of carbon compounds and conditions encountered during transport, and will determine the strength of permafrost thaw as a feedback on climate change. To better understand the fate of this carbon, we determined how and where in the landscape dissolved organic carbon (DOC) breaks down as water transports it from tundra to ocean. We compared DOC concentration and composition along flowpaths within watersheds and at the mouths of watersheds differing in drainage area. We incubated filtered water samples in light and dark, including filter-sterilized samples, to assess the interactions between light and microbial processing as mechanisms of DOC loss. Composition was assessed using optical measurements associated with the structure of organic compounds. DOC concentration declined along flowpaths within watersheds, with most loss occurring in aquatic environments high in the landscape. We also found a negative correlation between watershed size and DOC concentration. These results suggest that much of the processing of organic carbon occurs in small streams. In addition, the relationship with drainage area suggests that residence time in streams has a large impact on transformation of terrestrial carbon during transport. We found no substantial differences in optical characteristics of DOC, indicating that breakdown processes were not selective, and that light caused much of the breakdown. This conclusion is supported by the incubation experiment, which showed greater breakdown by light, and evidence that light stimulated higher rates of microbial processing. These results highlight the importance of inland aquatic ecosystems as processors of organic matter, and suggest that organic carbon from permafrost thaw is likely to be processed high in the landscape rather than transported to the ocean. Furthermore, the importance of light-induced breakdown as a mechanism for carbon loss suggests that the timing of DOC transport relative to seasonal changes in light intensity may influence the impact of permafrost thaw on climate change.

Climate Change Extreme Events: Meeting the Information Needs of Water Resource Managers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quay, R.; Garfin, G. M.; Dominguez, F.; Hirschboeck, K. K.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Guido, Z.; White, D. D.

2013-12-01

Information about climate has long been used by water managers to develop short term and long term plans and strategies for regional and local water resources. Inherent within longer term forecasts is an element of uncertainty, which is particularly evident in Global Climate model results for precipitation. For example in the southwest estimates in the flow of the Colorado River based on GCM results indicate changes from 120% or current flow to 60%. Many water resource managers are now using global climate model down scaled estimates results as indications of potential climate change as part of that planning. They are addressing the uncertainty within these estimates by using an anticipatory planning approach looking at a range of possible futures. One aspect of climate that is important for such planning are estimates of future extreme storm (short term) and drought (long term) events. However, the climate science of future possible changes in extreme events is less mature than general climate change science. At a recent workshop among climate scientists and water managers in the southwest, it was concluded the science of climate change extreme events is at least a decade away from being robust enough to be useful for water managers in their water resource management activities. However, it was proposed that there are existing estimates and records of past flooding and drought events that could be combined with general climate change science to create possible future events. These derived events could be of sufficient detail to be used by water resource managers until such time that the science of extreme events is able to provide more detailed estimates. Based on the results of this workshop and other work being done by the Decision Center for a Desert City at Arizona State University and the Climate Assessment for the Southwest center at University of Arizona., this article will 1) review what are the extreme event data needs of Water Resource Managers in the southwest, 2) review of the current state of extreme event climate science, 3) review what information is available about past extreme events in the southwest, 4) report the results of the 2012 workshop on climate change and extreme events, and 5) propose a method for combining this past information with current climate science information to produce estimates of possible future extreme events in sufficient detail to be useful to water resource managers.

Building Training Curricula for Accelerating the Use of NOAA Climate Products and Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timofeyeva-Livezey, M. M.; Meyers, J. C.; Stevermer, A.; Abshire, W. E.; Beller-Simms, N.; Herring, D.

2016-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) plays a leading role in U.S. intergovernmental efforts on the Climate Data Initiative and the Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT). CRT (http://toolkit.climate.gov/) is a valuable resource that provides tools, information, and subject matter expertise to decision makers in various sectors, such as agriculture, water resources and transportation, to help them build resilience to our changing climate. In order to make best use of the toolkit and all the resources within it, a training component is critical. The training section helps building users' understanding of the data, science, and impacts of climate variability and change. CRT identifies five steps in building resilience that includes use of appropriate tools to support decision makers depending on their needs. One tool that can be potentially integrated into CRT is NOAA's Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT), which provides access to trusted NOAA data and scientifically-sound analysis techniques for doing regional and local climate studies on climate variability and climate change. However, in order for LCAT to be used effectively, we have found an iterative learning approach using specific examples to train users. For example, for LCAT application in analysis of water resources, we use existing CRT case studies for Arizona and Florida water supply users. The Florida example demonstrates primary sensitivity to climate variability impacts, whereas the Arizona example takes into account longer- term climate change. The types of analyses included in LCAT are time series analysis of local climate and the estimated rate of change in the local climate. It also provides a composite analysis to evaluate the relationship between local climate and climate variability events such as El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Pacific North American Index, and other modes of climate variability. This paper will describe the development of a training module for use of LCAT and its integration into CRT. An iterative approach was used that incorporates specific examples of decision making while working with subject matter experts within the water supply community. The recommended strategy is to use a "stepping stone" learning structure to build users knowledge of best practices for use of LCAT.

A replicated climate change field experiment reveals rapid evolutionary response in an ecologically important soil invertebrate.

PubMed

Bataillon, Thomas; Galtier, Nicolas; Bernard, Aurelien; Cryer, Nicolai; Faivre, Nicolas; Santoni, Sylvain; Severac, Dany; Mikkelsen, Teis N; Larsen, Klaus S; Beier, Claus; Sørensen, Jesper G; Holmstrup, Martin; Ehlers, Bodil K

2016-07-01

Whether species can respond evolutionarily to current climate change is crucial for the persistence of many species. Yet, very few studies have examined genetic responses to climate change in manipulated experiments carried out in natural field conditions. We examined the evolutionary response to climate change in a common annelid worm using a controlled replicated experiment where climatic conditions were manipulated in a natural setting. Analyzing the transcribed genome of 15 local populations, we found that about 12% of the genetic polymorphisms exhibit differences in allele frequencies associated to changes in soil temperature and soil moisture. This shows an evolutionary response to realistic climate change happening over short-time scale, and calls for incorporating evolution into models predicting future response of species to climate change. It also shows that designed climate change experiments coupled with genome sequencing offer great potential to test for the occurrence (or lack) of an evolutionary response. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Placement and efficiency effects on radiative forcing of solar installations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burg, Brian R.; Ruch, Patrick; Paredes, Stephan

2015-09-28

The promise for harnessing solar energy being hampered by cost, triggered efforts to reduce them. As a consequence low-efficiency, low-cost photovoltaics (PV) panels prevail. Conversely, in the traditional energy sector efficiency is extremely important due to the direct costs associated to fuels. This also affects solar energy due to the radiative forcing caused by the dark solar panels. In this paper we extend the concept of energy payback time by including the effect of albedo change, which gives a better assessment of the system sustainability. We present an analysis on the short and medium term climate forcing effects of differentmore » solar collectors in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia and demonstrate that efficiency is important to reduce the collector area and cost. This also influences the embodied energy and the global warming potential. We show that a placement of a high concentration photovoltaic thermal solar power station outside of the city using a district cooling system has a double beneficial effect since it improves the solar conversion efficiency and reduces the energy demand for cooling in the city. We also explain the mechanisms of the current economic development of solar technologies and anticipate changes.« less