A Hybrid Physics-Based Data-Driven Approach for Point-Particle Force Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Chandler; Akiki, Georges; Balachandar, S.

2017-11-01

This study improves upon the physics-based pairwise interaction extended point-particle (PIEP) model. The PIEP model leverages a physical framework to predict fluid mediated interactions between solid particles. While the PIEP model is a powerful tool, its pairwise assumption leads to increased error in flows with high particle volume fractions. To reduce this error, a regression algorithm is used to model the differences between the current PIEP model's predictions and the results of direct numerical simulations (DNS) for an array of monodisperse solid particles subjected to various flow conditions. The resulting statistical model and the physical PIEP model are superimposed to construct a hybrid, physics-based data-driven PIEP model. It must be noted that the performance of a pure data-driven approach without the model-form provided by the physical PIEP model is substantially inferior. The hybrid model's predictive capabilities are analyzed using more DNS. In every case tested, the hybrid PIEP model's prediction are more accurate than those of physical PIEP model. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program under Grant No. DGE-1315138 and the U.S. DOE, NNSA, ASC Program, as a Cooperative Agreement under Contract No. DE-NA0002378.

Data-Driven H∞ Control for Nonlinear Distributed Parameter Systems.

PubMed

Luo, Biao; Huang, Tingwen; Wu, Huai-Ning; Yang, Xiong

2015-11-01

The data-driven H∞ control problem of nonlinear distributed parameter systems is considered in this paper. An off-policy learning method is developed to learn the H∞ control policy from real system data rather than the mathematical model. First, Karhunen-Loève decomposition is used to compute the empirical eigenfunctions, which are then employed to derive a reduced-order model (ROM) of slow subsystem based on the singular perturbation theory. The H∞ control problem is reformulated based on the ROM, which can be transformed to solve the Hamilton-Jacobi-Isaacs (HJI) equation, theoretically. To learn the solution of the HJI equation from real system data, a data-driven off-policy learning approach is proposed based on the simultaneous policy update algorithm and its convergence is proved. For implementation purpose, a neural network (NN)- based action-critic structure is developed, where a critic NN and two action NNs are employed to approximate the value function, control, and disturbance policies, respectively. Subsequently, a least-square NN weight-tuning rule is derived with the method of weighted residuals. Finally, the developed data-driven off-policy learning approach is applied to a nonlinear diffusion-reaction process, and the obtained results demonstrate its effectiveness.

Comparison of the performance of tracer kinetic model-driven registration for dynamic contrast enhanced MRI using different models of contrast enhancement.

PubMed

Buonaccorsi, Giovanni A; Roberts, Caleb; Cheung, Sue; Watson, Yvonne; O'Connor, James P B; Davies, Karen; Jackson, Alan; Jayson, Gordon C; Parker, Geoff J M

2006-09-01

The quantitative analysis of dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data is subject to model fitting errors caused by motion during the time-series data acquisition. However, the time-varying features that occur as a result of contrast enhancement can confound motion correction techniques based on conventional registration similarity measures. We have therefore developed a heuristic, locally controlled tracer kinetic model-driven registration procedure, in which the model accounts for contrast enhancement, and applied it to the registration of abdominal DCE-MRI data at high temporal resolution. Using severely motion-corrupted data sets that had been excluded from analysis in a clinical trial of an antiangiogenic agent, we compared the results obtained when using different models to drive the tracer kinetic model-driven registration with those obtained when using a conventional registration against the time series mean image volume. Using tracer kinetic model-driven registration, it was possible to improve model fitting by reducing the sum of squared errors but the improvement was only realized when using a model that adequately described the features of the time series data. The registration against the time series mean significantly distorted the time series data, as did tracer kinetic model-driven registration using a simpler model of contrast enhancement. When an appropriate model is used, tracer kinetic model-driven registration influences motion-corrupted model fit parameter estimates and provides significant improvements in localization in three-dimensional parameter maps. This has positive implications for the use of quantitative DCE-MRI for example in clinical trials of antiangiogenic or antivascular agents.

Evaluation of Normalization Methods to Pave the Way Towards Large-Scale LC-MS-Based Metabolomics Profiling Experiments

PubMed Central

Valkenborg, Dirk; Baggerman, Geert; Vanaerschot, Manu; Witters, Erwin; Dujardin, Jean-Claude; Burzykowski, Tomasz; Berg, Maya

2013-01-01

Abstract Combining liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS)-based metabolomics experiments that were collected over a long period of time remains problematic due to systematic variability between LC-MS measurements. Until now, most normalization methods for LC-MS data are model-driven, based on internal standards or intermediate quality control runs, where an external model is extrapolated to the dataset of interest. In the first part of this article, we evaluate several existing data-driven normalization approaches on LC-MS metabolomics experiments, which do not require the use of internal standards. According to variability measures, each normalization method performs relatively well, showing that the use of any normalization method will greatly improve data-analysis originating from multiple experimental runs. In the second part, we apply cyclic-Loess normalization to a Leishmania sample. This normalization method allows the removal of systematic variability between two measurement blocks over time and maintains the differential metabolites. In conclusion, normalization allows for pooling datasets from different measurement blocks over time and increases the statistical power of the analysis, hence paving the way to increase the scale of LC-MS metabolomics experiments. From our investigation, we recommend data-driven normalization methods over model-driven normalization methods, if only a few internal standards were used. Moreover, data-driven normalization methods are the best option to normalize datasets from untargeted LC-MS experiments. PMID:23808607

Statistical and engineering methods for model enhancement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Chia-Jung

Models which describe the performance of physical process are essential for quality prediction, experimental planning, process control and optimization. Engineering models developed based on the underlying physics/mechanics of the process such as analytic models or finite element models are widely used to capture the deterministic trend of the process. However, there usually exists stochastic randomness in the system which may introduce the discrepancy between physics-based model predictions and observations in reality. Alternatively, statistical models can be used to develop models to obtain predictions purely based on the data generated from the process. However, such models tend to perform poorly when predictions are made away from the observed data points. This dissertation contributes to model enhancement research by integrating physics-based model and statistical model to mitigate the individual drawbacks and provide models with better accuracy by combining the strengths of both models. The proposed model enhancement methodologies including the following two streams: (1) data-driven enhancement approach and (2) engineering-driven enhancement approach. Through these efforts, more adequate models are obtained, which leads to better performance in system forecasting, process monitoring and decision optimization. Among different data-driven enhancement approaches, Gaussian Process (GP) model provides a powerful methodology for calibrating a physical model in the presence of model uncertainties. However, if the data contain systematic experimental errors, the GP model can lead to an unnecessarily complex adjustment of the physical model. In Chapter 2, we proposed a novel enhancement procedure, named as “Minimal Adjustment”, which brings the physical model closer to the data by making minimal changes to it. This is achieved by approximating the GP model by a linear regression model and then applying a simultaneous variable selection of the model and experimental bias terms. Two real examples and simulations are presented to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed approach. Different from enhancing the model based on data-driven perspective, an alternative approach is to focus on adjusting the model by incorporating the additional domain or engineering knowledge when available. This often leads to models that are very simple and easy to interpret. The concepts of engineering-driven enhancement are carried out through two applications to demonstrate the proposed methodologies. In the first application where polymer composite quality is focused, nanoparticle dispersion has been identified as a crucial factor affecting the mechanical properties. Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) images are commonly used to represent nanoparticle dispersion without further quantifications on its characteristics. In Chapter 3, we developed the engineering-driven nonhomogeneous Poisson random field modeling strategy to characterize nanoparticle dispersion status of nanocomposite polymer, which quantitatively represents the nanomaterial quality presented through image data. The model parameters are estimated through the Bayesian MCMC technique to overcome the challenge of limited amount of accessible data due to the time consuming sampling schemes. The second application is to calibrate the engineering-driven force models of laser-assisted micro milling (LAMM) process statistically, which facilitates a systematic understanding and optimization of targeted processes. In Chapter 4, the force prediction interval has been derived by incorporating the variability in the runout parameters as well as the variability in the measured cutting forces. The experimental results indicate that the model predicts the cutting force profile with good accuracy using a 95% confidence interval. To conclude, this dissertation is the research drawing attention to model enhancement, which has considerable impacts on modeling, design, and optimization of various processes and systems. The fundamental methodologies of model enhancement are developed and further applied to various applications. These research activities developed engineering compliant models for adequate system predictions based on observational data with complex variable relationships and uncertainty, which facilitate process planning, monitoring, and real-time control.

Mathematical-Artificial Neural Network Hybrid Model to Predict Roll Force during Hot Rolling of Steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rath, S.; Sengupta, P. P.; Singh, A. P.; Marik, A. K.; Talukdar, P.

2013-07-01

Accurate prediction of roll force during hot strip rolling is essential for model based operation of hot strip mills. Traditionally, mathematical models based on theory of plastic deformation have been used for prediction of roll force. In the last decade, data driven models like artificial neural network have been tried for prediction of roll force. Pure mathematical models have accuracy limitations whereas data driven models have difficulty in convergence when applied to industrial conditions. Hybrid models by integrating the traditional mathematical formulations and data driven methods are being developed in different parts of world. This paper discusses the methodology of development of an innovative hybrid mathematical-artificial neural network model. In mathematical model, the most important factor influencing accuracy is flow stress of steel. Coefficients of standard flow stress equation, calculated by parameter estimation technique, have been used in the model. The hybrid model has been trained and validated with input and output data collected from finishing stands of Hot Strip Mill, Bokaro Steel Plant, India. It has been found that the model accuracy has been improved with use of hybrid model, over the traditional mathematical model.

Machine Learning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chikkagoudar, Satish; Chatterjee, Samrat; Thomas, Dennis G.

The absence of a robust and unified theory of cyber dynamics presents challenges and opportunities for using machine learning based data-driven approaches to further the understanding of the behavior of such complex systems. Analysts can also use machine learning approaches to gain operational insights. In order to be operationally beneficial, cybersecurity machine learning based models need to have the ability to: (1) represent a real-world system, (2) infer system properties, and (3) learn and adapt based on expert knowledge and observations. Probabilistic models and Probabilistic graphical models provide these necessary properties and are further explored in this chapter. Bayesian Networksmore » and Hidden Markov Models are introduced as an example of a widely used data driven classification/modeling strategy.« less

Keys to success for data-driven decision making: Lessons from participatory monitoring and collaborative adaptive management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recent years have witnessed a call for evidence-based decisions in conservation and natural resource management, including data-driven decision-making. Adaptive management (AM) is one prevalent model for integrating scientific data into decision-making, yet AM has faced numerous challenges and limit...

Data-driven robust approximate optimal tracking control for unknown general nonlinear systems using adaptive dynamic programming method.

PubMed

Zhang, Huaguang; Cui, Lili; Zhang, Xin; Luo, Yanhong

2011-12-01

In this paper, a novel data-driven robust approximate optimal tracking control scheme is proposed for unknown general nonlinear systems by using the adaptive dynamic programming (ADP) method. In the design of the controller, only available input-output data is required instead of known system dynamics. A data-driven model is established by a recurrent neural network (NN) to reconstruct the unknown system dynamics using available input-output data. By adding a novel adjustable term related to the modeling error, the resultant modeling error is first guaranteed to converge to zero. Then, based on the obtained data-driven model, the ADP method is utilized to design the approximate optimal tracking controller, which consists of the steady-state controller and the optimal feedback controller. Further, a robustifying term is developed to compensate for the NN approximation errors introduced by implementing the ADP method. Based on Lyapunov approach, stability analysis of the closed-loop system is performed to show that the proposed controller guarantees the system state asymptotically tracking the desired trajectory. Additionally, the obtained control input is proven to be close to the optimal control input within a small bound. Finally, two numerical examples are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme.

Framework for developing hybrid process-driven, artificial neural network and regression models for salinity prediction in river systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunter, Jason M.; Maier, Holger R.; Gibbs, Matthew S.; Foale, Eloise R.; Grosvenor, Naomi A.; Harders, Nathan P.; Kikuchi-Miller, Tahali C.

2018-05-01

Salinity modelling in river systems is complicated by a number of processes, including in-stream salt transport and various mechanisms of saline accession that vary dynamically as a function of water level and flow, often at different temporal scales. Traditionally, salinity models in rivers have either been process- or data-driven. The primary problem with process-based models is that in many instances, not all of the underlying processes are fully understood or able to be represented mathematically. There are also often insufficient historical data to support model development. The major limitation of data-driven models, such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) in comparison, is that they provide limited system understanding and are generally not able to be used to inform management decisions targeting specific processes, as different processes are generally modelled implicitly. In order to overcome these limitations, a generic framework for developing hybrid process and data-driven models of salinity in river systems is introduced and applied in this paper. As part of the approach, the most suitable sub-models are developed for each sub-process affecting salinity at the location of interest based on consideration of model purpose, the degree of process understanding and data availability, which are then combined to form the hybrid model. The approach is applied to a 46 km reach of the Murray River in South Australia, which is affected by high levels of salinity. In this reach, the major processes affecting salinity include in-stream salt transport, accession of saline groundwater along the length of the reach and the flushing of three waterbodies in the floodplain during overbank flows of various magnitudes. Based on trade-offs between the degree of process understanding and data availability, a process-driven model is developed for in-stream salt transport, an ANN model is used to model saline groundwater accession and three linear regression models are used to account for the flushing of the different floodplain storages. The resulting hybrid model performs very well on approximately 3 years of daily validation data, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.89 and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 12.62 mg L-1 (over a range from approximately 50 to 250 mg L-1). Each component of the hybrid model results in noticeable improvements in model performance corresponding to the range of flows for which they are developed. The predictive performance of the hybrid model is significantly better than that of a benchmark process-driven model (NSE = -0.14, RMSE = 41.10 mg L-1, Gbench index = 0.90) and slightly better than that of a benchmark data-driven (ANN) model (NSE = 0.83, RMSE = 15.93 mg L-1, Gbench index = 0.36). Apart from improved predictive performance, the hybrid model also has advantages over the ANN benchmark model in terms of increased capacity for improving system understanding and greater ability to support management decisions.

Limited angle CT reconstruction by simultaneous spatial and Radon domain regularization based on TV and data-driven tight frame

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wenkun; Zhang, Hanming; Wang, Linyuan; Cai, Ailong; Li, Lei; Yan, Bin

2018-02-01

Limited angle computed tomography (CT) reconstruction is widely performed in medical diagnosis and industrial testing because of the size of objects, engine/armor inspection requirements, and limited scan flexibility. Limited angle reconstruction necessitates usage of optimization-based methods that utilize additional sparse priors. However, most of conventional methods solely exploit sparsity priors of spatial domains. When CT projection suffers from serious data deficiency or various noises, obtaining reconstruction images that meet the requirement of quality becomes difficult and challenging. To solve this problem, this paper developed an adaptive reconstruction method for limited angle CT problem. The proposed method simultaneously uses spatial and Radon domain regularization model based on total variation (TV) and data-driven tight frame. Data-driven tight frame being derived from wavelet transformation aims at exploiting sparsity priors of sinogram in Radon domain. Unlike existing works that utilize pre-constructed sparse transformation, the framelets of the data-driven regularization model can be adaptively learned from the latest projection data in the process of iterative reconstruction to provide optimal sparse approximations for given sinogram. At the same time, an effective alternating direction method is designed to solve the simultaneous spatial and Radon domain regularization model. The experiments for both simulation and real data demonstrate that the proposed algorithm shows better performance in artifacts depression and details preservation than the algorithms solely using regularization model of spatial domain. Quantitative evaluations for the results also indicate that the proposed algorithm applying learning strategy performs better than the dual domains algorithms without learning regularization model

Assessing Argumentative Representation with Bayesian Network Models in Debatable Social Issues

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Zhidong; Lu, Jingyan

2014-01-01

This study seeks to obtain argumentation models, which represent argumentative processes and an assessment structure in secondary school debatable issues in the social sciences. The argumentation model was developed based on mixed methods, a combination of both theory-driven and data-driven methods. The coding system provided a combing point by…

Testing the Accuracy of Data-driven MHD Simulations of Active Region Evolution and Eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leake, J. E.; Linton, M.; Schuck, P. W.

2017-12-01

Models for the evolution of the solar coronal magnetic field are vital for understanding solar activity, yet the best measurements of the magnetic field lie at the photosphere, necessitating the recent development of coronal models which are "data-driven" at the photosphere. Using magnetohydrodynamic simulations of active region formation and our recently created validation framework we investigate the source of errors in data-driven models that use surface measurements of the magnetic field, and derived MHD quantities, to model the coronal magnetic field. The primary sources of errors in these studies are the temporal and spatial resolution of the surface measurements. We will discuss the implications of theses studies for accurately modeling the build up and release of coronal magnetic energy based on photospheric magnetic field observations.

UTOPIAN: user-driven topic modeling based on interactive nonnegative matrix factorization.

PubMed

Choo, Jaegul; Lee, Changhyun; Reddy, Chandan K; Park, Haesun

2013-12-01

Topic modeling has been widely used for analyzing text document collections. Recently, there have been significant advancements in various topic modeling techniques, particularly in the form of probabilistic graphical modeling. State-of-the-art techniques such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) have been successfully applied in visual text analytics. However, most of the widely-used methods based on probabilistic modeling have drawbacks in terms of consistency from multiple runs and empirical convergence. Furthermore, due to the complicatedness in the formulation and the algorithm, LDA cannot easily incorporate various types of user feedback. To tackle this problem, we propose a reliable and flexible visual analytics system for topic modeling called UTOPIAN (User-driven Topic modeling based on Interactive Nonnegative Matrix Factorization). Centered around its semi-supervised formulation, UTOPIAN enables users to interact with the topic modeling method and steer the result in a user-driven manner. We demonstrate the capability of UTOPIAN via several usage scenarios with real-world document corpuses such as InfoVis/VAST paper data set and product review data sets.

Prognostics of Power Mosfets Under Thermal Stress Accelerated Aging Using Data-Driven and Model-Based Methodologies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Celaya, Jose; Saxena, Abhinav; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai F.

2011-01-01

An approach for predicting remaining useful life of power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor) devices has been developed. Power MOSFETs are semiconductor switching devices that are instrumental in electronics equipment such as those used in operation and control of modern aircraft and spacecraft. The MOSFETs examined here were aged under thermal overstress in a controlled experiment and continuous performance degradation data were collected from the accelerated aging experiment. Dieattach degradation was determined to be the primary failure mode. The collected run-to-failure data were analyzed and it was revealed that ON-state resistance increased as die-attach degraded under high thermal stresses. Results from finite element simulation analysis support the observations from the experimental data. Data-driven and model based prognostics algorithms were investigated where ON-state resistance was used as the primary precursor of failure feature. A Gaussian process regression algorithm was explored as an example for a data-driven technique and an extended Kalman filter and a particle filter were used as examples for model-based techniques. Both methods were able to provide valid results. Prognostic performance metrics were employed to evaluate and compare the algorithms.

Dynamically adaptive data-driven simulation of extreme hydrological flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar Jain, Pushkar; Mandli, Kyle; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Knio, Omar; Dawson, Clint

2018-02-01

Hydrological hazards such as storm surges, tsunamis, and rainfall-induced flooding are physically complex events that are costly in loss of human life and economic productivity. Many such disasters could be mitigated through improved emergency evacuation in real-time and through the development of resilient infrastructure based on knowledge of how systems respond to extreme events. Data-driven computational modeling is a critical technology underpinning these efforts. This investigation focuses on the novel combination of methodologies in forward simulation and data assimilation. The forward geophysical model utilizes adaptive mesh refinement (AMR), a process by which a computational mesh can adapt in time and space based on the current state of a simulation. The forward solution is combined with ensemble based data assimilation methods, whereby observations from an event are assimilated into the forward simulation to improve the veracity of the solution, or used to invert for uncertain physical parameters. The novelty in our approach is the tight two-way coupling of AMR and ensemble filtering techniques. The technology is tested using actual data from the Chile tsunami event of February 27, 2010. These advances offer the promise of significantly transforming data-driven, real-time modeling of hydrological hazards, with potentially broader applications in other science domains.

Data-driven non-linear elasticity: constitutive manifold construction and problem discretization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibañez, Ruben; Borzacchiello, Domenico; Aguado, Jose Vicente; Abisset-Chavanne, Emmanuelle; Cueto, Elias; Ladeveze, Pierre; Chinesta, Francisco

2017-11-01

The use of constitutive equations calibrated from data has been implemented into standard numerical solvers for successfully addressing a variety problems encountered in simulation-based engineering sciences (SBES). However, the complexity remains constantly increasing due to the need of increasingly detailed models as well as the use of engineered materials. Data-Driven simulation constitutes a potential change of paradigm in SBES. Standard simulation in computational mechanics is based on the use of two very different types of equations. The first one, of axiomatic character, is related to balance laws (momentum, mass, energy,\\ldots ), whereas the second one consists of models that scientists have extracted from collected, either natural or synthetic, data. Data-driven (or data-intensive) simulation consists of directly linking experimental data to computers in order to perform numerical simulations. These simulations will employ laws, universally recognized as epistemic, while minimizing the need of explicit, often phenomenological, models. The main drawback of such an approach is the large amount of required data, some of them inaccessible from the nowadays testing facilities. Such difficulty can be circumvented in many cases, and in any case alleviated, by considering complex tests, collecting as many data as possible and then using a data-driven inverse approach in order to generate the whole constitutive manifold from few complex experimental tests, as discussed in the present work.

Data-driven Modeling of Metal-oxide Sensors with Dynamic Bayesian Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gosangi, Rakesh; Gutierrez-Osuna, Ricardo

2011-09-01

We present a data-driven probabilistic framework to model the transient response of MOX sensors modulated with a sequence of voltage steps. Analytical models of MOX sensors are usually built based on the physico-chemical properties of the sensing materials. Although building these models provides an insight into the sensor behavior, they also require a thorough understanding of the underlying operating principles. Here we propose a data-driven approach to characterize the dynamical relationship between sensor inputs and outputs. Namely, we use dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs), probabilistic models that represent temporal relations between a set of random variables. We identify a set of control variables that influence the sensor responses, create a graphical representation that captures the causal relations between these variables, and finally train the model with experimental data. We validated the approach on experimental data in terms of predictive accuracy and classification performance. Our results show that DBNs can accurately predict the dynamic response of MOX sensors, as well as capture the discriminatory information present in the sensor transients.

Model and system learners, optimal process constructors and kinetic theory-based goal-oriented design: A new paradigm in materials and processes informatics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abisset-Chavanne, Emmanuelle; Duval, Jean Louis; Cueto, Elias; Chinesta, Francisco

2018-05-01

Traditionally, Simulation-Based Engineering Sciences (SBES) has relied on the use of static data inputs (model parameters, initial or boundary conditions, … obtained from adequate experiments) to perform simulations. A new paradigm in the field of Applied Sciences and Engineering has emerged in the last decade. Dynamic Data-Driven Application Systems [9, 10, 11, 12, 22] allow the linkage of simulation tools with measurement devices for real-time control of simulations and applications, entailing the ability to dynamically incorporate additional data into an executing application, and in reverse, the ability of an application to dynamically steer the measurement process. It is in that context that traditional "digital-twins" are giving raise to a new generation of goal-oriented data-driven application systems, also known as "hybrid-twins", embracing models based on physics and models exclusively based on data adequately collected and assimilated for filling the gap between usual model predictions and measurements. Within this framework new methodologies based on model learners, machine learning and kinetic goal-oriented design are defining a new paradigm in materials, processes and systems engineering.

General Purpose Data-Driven Online System Health Monitoring with Applications to Space Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iverson, David L.; Spirkovska, Lilly; Schwabacher, Mark

2010-01-01

Modern space transportation and ground support system designs are becoming increasingly sophisticated and complex. Determining the health state of these systems using traditional parameter limit checking, or model-based or rule-based methods is becoming more difficult as the number of sensors and component interactions grows. Data-driven monitoring techniques have been developed to address these issues by analyzing system operations data to automatically characterize normal system behavior. System health can be monitored by comparing real-time operating data with these nominal characterizations, providing detection of anomalous data signatures indicative of system faults, failures, or precursors of significant failures. The Inductive Monitoring System (IMS) is a general purpose, data-driven system health monitoring software tool that has been successfully applied to several aerospace applications and is under evaluation for anomaly detection in vehicle and ground equipment for next generation launch systems. After an introduction to IMS application development, we discuss these NASA online monitoring applications, including the integration of IMS with complementary model-based and rule-based methods. Although the examples presented in this paper are from space operations applications, IMS is a general-purpose health-monitoring tool that is also applicable to power generation and transmission system monitoring.

Data-Driven Modeling and Rendering of Force Responses from Elastic Tool Deformation

PubMed Central

Rakhmatov, Ruslan; Ogay, Tatyana; Jeon, Seokhee

2018-01-01

This article presents a new data-driven model design for rendering force responses from elastic tool deformation. The new design incorporates a six-dimensional input describing the initial position of the contact, as well as the state of the tool deformation. The input-output relationship of the model was represented by a radial basis functions network, which was optimized based on training data collected from real tool-surface contact. Since the input space of the model is represented in the local coordinate system of a tool, the model is independent of recording and rendering devices and can be easily deployed to an existing simulator. The model also supports complex interactions, such as self and multi-contact collisions. In order to assess the proposed data-driven model, we built a custom data acquisition setup and developed a proof-of-concept rendering simulator. The simulator was evaluated through numerical and psychophysical experiments with four different real tools. The numerical evaluation demonstrated the perceptual soundness of the proposed model, meanwhile the user study revealed the force feedback of the proposed simulator to be realistic. PMID:29342964

caCORE version 3: Implementation of a model driven, service-oriented architecture for semantic interoperability.

PubMed

Komatsoulis, George A; Warzel, Denise B; Hartel, Francis W; Shanbhag, Krishnakant; Chilukuri, Ram; Fragoso, Gilberto; Coronado, Sherri de; Reeves, Dianne M; Hadfield, Jillaine B; Ludet, Christophe; Covitz, Peter A

2008-02-01

One of the requirements for a federated information system is interoperability, the ability of one computer system to access and use the resources of another system. This feature is particularly important in biomedical research systems, which need to coordinate a variety of disparate types of data. In order to meet this need, the National Cancer Institute Center for Bioinformatics (NCICB) has created the cancer Common Ontologic Representation Environment (caCORE), an interoperability infrastructure based on Model Driven Architecture. The caCORE infrastructure provides a mechanism to create interoperable biomedical information systems. Systems built using the caCORE paradigm address both aspects of interoperability: the ability to access data (syntactic interoperability) and understand the data once retrieved (semantic interoperability). This infrastructure consists of an integrated set of three major components: a controlled terminology service (Enterprise Vocabulary Services), a standards-based metadata repository (the cancer Data Standards Repository) and an information system with an Application Programming Interface (API) based on Domain Model Driven Architecture. This infrastructure is being leveraged to create a Semantic Service-Oriented Architecture (SSOA) for cancer research by the National Cancer Institute's cancer Biomedical Informatics Grid (caBIG).

caCORE version 3: Implementation of a model driven, service-oriented architecture for semantic interoperability

PubMed Central

Komatsoulis, George A.; Warzel, Denise B.; Hartel, Frank W.; Shanbhag, Krishnakant; Chilukuri, Ram; Fragoso, Gilberto; de Coronado, Sherri; Reeves, Dianne M.; Hadfield, Jillaine B.; Ludet, Christophe; Covitz, Peter A.

2008-01-01

One of the requirements for a federated information system is interoperability, the ability of one computer system to access and use the resources of another system. This feature is particularly important in biomedical research systems, which need to coordinate a variety of disparate types of data. In order to meet this need, the National Cancer Institute Center for Bioinformatics (NCICB) has created the cancer Common Ontologic Representation Environment (caCORE), an interoperability infrastructure based on Model Driven Architecture. The caCORE infrastructure provides a mechanism to create interoperable biomedical information systems. Systems built using the caCORE paradigm address both aspects of interoperability: the ability to access data (syntactic interoperability) and understand the data once retrieved (semantic interoperability). This infrastructure consists of an integrated set of three major components: a controlled terminology service (Enterprise Vocabulary Services), a standards-based metadata repository (the cancer Data Standards Repository) and an information system with an Application Programming Interface (API) based on Domain Model Driven Architecture. This infrastructure is being leveraged to create a Semantic Service Oriented Architecture (SSOA) for cancer research by the National Cancer Institute’s cancer Biomedical Informatics Grid (caBIG™). PMID:17512259

Data-driven Model of the ICME Propagation through the Solar Corona and Inner Heliosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yalim, M. S.; Pogorelov, N.; Singh, T.; Liu, Y.

2017-12-01

The solar wind (SW) emerging from the Sun is the main driving mechanism of solar events which may lead to geomagnetic storms that are the primary causes of space weather disturbances that affect the magnetic environment of Earth and may have hazardous effects on the space-borne and ground-based technological systems as well as human health. Therefore, accurate modeling of the SW is very important to understand the underlying mechanisms of such storms.Getting ready for the Parker Solar Probe mission, we have developed a data-driven magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the global solar corona which utilizes characteristic boundary conditions implemented within the Multi-Scale Fluid-Kinetic Simulation Suite (MS-FLUKSS) - a collection of problem oriented routines incorporated into the Chombo adaptive mesh refinement framework developed at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Our global solar corona model can be driven by both synoptic and synchronic vector magnetogram data obtained by the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (SDO/HMI) and the horizontal velocity data on the photosphere obtained by applying the Differential Affine Velocity Estimatorfor Vector Magnetograms (DAVE4VM) method on the HMI-observed vector magnetic fields.Our CME generation model is based on Gibson-Low-type flux ropes the parameters of which are determined from analysis of observational data from STEREO/SECCHI, SDO/AIA and SOHO/LASCO, and by applying the Graduate Cylindrical Shell model for the flux rope reconstruction.In this study, we will present the results of three-dimensional global simulations of ICME propagation through our characteristically-consistent MHD model of the background SW from the Sun to Earth driven by HMI-observed vector magnetic fields and validate our results using multiple spacecraft data at 1 AU.

ODISEES: Ontology-Driven Interactive Search Environment for Earth Sciences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rutherford, Matthew T.; Huffer, Elisabeth B.; Kusterer, John M.; Quam, Brandi M.

2015-01-01

This paper discusses the Ontology-driven Interactive Search Environment for Earth Sciences (ODISEES) project currently being developed to aid researchers attempting to find usable data among an overabundance of closely related data. ODISEES' ontological structure relies on a modular, adaptable concept modeling approach, which allows the domain to be modeled more or less as it is without worrying about terminology or external requirements. In the model, variables are individually assigned semantic content based on the characteristics of the measurements they represent, allowing intuitive discovery and comparison of data without requiring the user to sift through large numbers of data sets and variables to find the desired information.

BrainLiner: A Neuroinformatics Platform for Sharing Time-Aligned Brain-Behavior Data

PubMed Central

Takemiya, Makoto; Majima, Kei; Tsukamoto, Mitsuaki; Kamitani, Yukiyasu

2016-01-01

Data-driven neuroscience aims to find statistical relationships between brain activity and task behavior from large-scale datasets. To facilitate high-throughput data processing and modeling, we created BrainLiner as a web platform for sharing time-aligned, brain-behavior data. Using an HDF5-based data format, BrainLiner treats brain activity and data related to behavior with the same salience, aligning both behavioral and brain activity data on a common time axis. This facilitates learning the relationship between behavior and brain activity. Using a common data file format also simplifies data processing and analyses. Properties describing data are unambiguously defined using a schema, allowing machine-readable definition of data. The BrainLiner platform allows users to upload and download data, as well as to explore and search for data from the web platform. A WebGL-based data explorer can visualize highly detailed neurophysiological data from within the web browser, and a data-driven search feature allows users to search for similar time windows of data. This increases transparency, and allows for visual inspection of neural coding. BrainLiner thus provides an essential set of tools for data sharing and data-driven modeling. PMID:26858636

Developing a Data Driven Process-Based Model for Remote Sensing of Ecosystem Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elmasri, B.; Rahman, A. F.

2010-12-01

Estimating ecosystem carbon fluxes at various spatial and temporal scales is essential for quantifying the global carbon cycle. Numerous models have been developed for this purpose using several environmental variables as well as vegetation indices derived from remotely sensed data. Here we present a data driven modeling approach for gross primary production (GPP) that is based on a process based model BIOME-BGC. The proposed model was run using available remote sensing data and it does not depend on look-up tables. Furthermore, this approach combines the merits of both empirical and process models, and empirical models were used to estimate certain input variables such as light use efficiency (LUE). This was achieved by using remotely sensed data to the mathematical equations that represent biophysical photosynthesis processes in the BIOME-BGC model. Moreover, a new spectral index for estimating maximum photosynthetic activity, maximum photosynthetic rate index (MPRI), is also developed and presented here. This new index is based on the ratio between the near infrared and the green bands (ρ858.5/ρ555). The model was tested and validated against MODIS GPP product and flux measurements from two eddy covariance flux towers located at Morgan Monroe State Forest (MMSF) in Indiana and Harvard Forest in Massachusetts. Satellite data acquired by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) and MODIS were used. The data driven model showed a strong correlation between the predicted and measured GPP at the two eddy covariance flux towers sites. This methodology produced better predictions of GPP than did the MODIS GPP product. Moreover, the proportion of error in the predicted GPP for MMSF and Harvard forest was dominated by unsystematic errors suggesting that the results are unbiased. The analysis indicated that maintenance respiration is one of the main factors that dominate the overall model outcome errors and improvement in maintenance respiration estimation will result in improved GPP predictions. Although there might be a room for improvements in our model outcomes through improved parameterization, our results suggest that such a methodology for running BIOME-BGC model based entirely on routinely available data can produce good predictions of GPP.

HMI Data Driven Magnetohydrodynamic Model Predicted Active Region Photospheric Heating Rates: Their Scale Invariant, Flare Like Power Law Distributions, and Their Possible Association With Flares

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Michael L.; Kwan, Chiman; Ayhan, Bulent; Shang, Eric L.

2017-01-01

There are many flare forecasting models. For an excellent review and comparison of some of them see Barnes et al. (2016). All these models are successful to some degree, but there is a need for better models. We claim the most successful models explicitly or implicitly base their forecasts on various estimates of components of the photospheric current density J, based on observations of the photospheric magnetic field B. However, none of the models we are aware of compute the complete J. We seek to develop a better model based on computing the complete photospheric J. Initial results from this model are presented in this talk. We present a data driven, near photospheric, 3 D, non-force free magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model that computes time series of the total J, and associated resistive heating rate in each pixel at the photosphere in the neutral line regions (NLRs) of 14 active regions (ARs). The model is driven by time series of B measured by the Helioseismic & Magnetic Imager (HMI) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite. Spurious Doppler periods due to SDO orbital motion are filtered out of the time series of B in every AR pixel. Errors in B due to these periods can be significant.

Contrasting analytical and data-driven frameworks for radiogenomic modeling of normal tissue toxicities in prostate cancer.

PubMed

Coates, James; Jeyaseelan, Asha K; Ybarra, Norma; David, Marc; Faria, Sergio; Souhami, Luis; Cury, Fabio; Duclos, Marie; El Naqa, Issam

2015-04-01

We explore analytical and data-driven approaches to investigate the integration of genetic variations (single nucleotide polymorphisms [SNPs] and copy number variations [CNVs]) with dosimetric and clinical variables in modeling radiation-induced rectal bleeding (RB) and erectile dysfunction (ED) in prostate cancer patients. Sixty-two patients who underwent curative hypofractionated radiotherapy (66 Gy in 22 fractions) between 2002 and 2010 were retrospectively genotyped for CNV and SNP rs5489 in the xrcc1 DNA repair gene. Fifty-four patients had full dosimetric profiles. Two parallel modeling approaches were compared to assess the risk of severe RB (Grade⩾3) and ED (Grade⩾1); Maximum likelihood estimated generalized Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) and logistic regression. Statistical resampling based on cross-validation was used to evaluate model predictive power and generalizability to unseen data. Integration of biological variables xrcc1 CNV and SNP improved the fit of the RB and ED analytical and data-driven models. Cross-validation of the generalized LKB models yielded increases in classification performance of 27.4% for RB and 14.6% for ED when xrcc1 CNV and SNP were included, respectively. Biological variables added to logistic regression modeling improved classification performance over standard dosimetric models by 33.5% for RB and 21.2% for ED models. As a proof-of-concept, we demonstrated that the combination of genetic and dosimetric variables can provide significant improvement in NTCP prediction using analytical and data-driven approaches. The improvement in prediction performance was more pronounced in the data driven approaches. Moreover, we have shown that CNVs, in addition to SNPs, may be useful structural genetic variants in predicting radiation toxicities. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Human systems immunology: hypothesis-based modeling and unbiased data-driven approaches.

PubMed

Arazi, Arnon; Pendergraft, William F; Ribeiro, Ruy M; Perelson, Alan S; Hacohen, Nir

2013-10-31

Systems immunology is an emerging paradigm that aims at a more systematic and quantitative understanding of the immune system. Two major approaches have been utilized to date in this field: unbiased data-driven modeling to comprehensively identify molecular and cellular components of a system and their interactions; and hypothesis-based quantitative modeling to understand the operating principles of a system by extracting a minimal set of variables and rules underlying them. In this review, we describe applications of the two approaches to the study of viral infections and autoimmune diseases in humans, and discuss possible ways by which these two approaches can synergize when applied to human immunology. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The fractional volatility model: An agent-based interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilela Mendes, R.

2008-06-01

Based on the criteria of mathematical simplicity and consistency with empirical market data, a model with volatility driven by fractional noise has been constructed which provides a fairly accurate mathematical parametrization of the data. Here, some features of the model are reviewed and extended to account for leverage effects. Using agent-based models, one tries to find which agent strategies and (or) properties of the financial institutions might be responsible for the features of the fractional volatility model.

A review of surrogate models and their application to groundwater modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asher, M. J.; Croke, B. F. W.; Jakeman, A. J.; Peeters, L. J. M.

2015-08-01

The spatially and temporally variable parameters and inputs to complex groundwater models typically result in long runtimes which hinder comprehensive calibration, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis. Surrogate modeling aims to provide a simpler, and hence faster, model which emulates the specified output of a more complex model in function of its inputs and parameters. In this review paper, we summarize surrogate modeling techniques in three categories: data-driven, projection, and hierarchical-based approaches. Data-driven surrogates approximate a groundwater model through an empirical model that captures the input-output mapping of the original model. Projection-based models reduce the dimensionality of the parameter space by projecting the governing equations onto a basis of orthonormal vectors. In hierarchical or multifidelity methods the surrogate is created by simplifying the representation of the physical system, such as by ignoring certain processes, or reducing the numerical resolution. In discussing the application to groundwater modeling of these methods, we note several imbalances in the existing literature: a large body of work on data-driven approaches seemingly ignores major drawbacks to the methods; only a fraction of the literature focuses on creating surrogates to reproduce outputs of fully distributed groundwater models, despite these being ubiquitous in practice; and a number of the more advanced surrogate modeling methods are yet to be fully applied in a groundwater modeling context.

Combining Model-Based and Feature-Driven Diagnosis Approaches - A Case Study on Electromechanical Actuators

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Narasimhan, Sriram; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Balaban, Edward; Saxena, Abhinav

2010-01-01

Model-based diagnosis typically uses analytical redundancy to compare predictions from a model against observations from the system being diagnosed. However this approach does not work very well when it is not feasible to create analytic relations describing all the observed data, e.g., for vibration data which is usually sampled at very high rates and requires very detailed finite element models to describe its behavior. In such cases, features (in time and frequency domains) that contain diagnostic information are extracted from the data. Since this is a computationally intensive process, it is not efficient to extract all the features all the time. In this paper we present an approach that combines the analytic model-based and feature-driven diagnosis approaches. The analytic approach is used to reduce the set of possible faults and then features are chosen to best distinguish among the remaining faults. We describe an implementation of this approach on the Flyable Electro-mechanical Actuator (FLEA) test bed.

Data-driven modeling and predictive control for boiler-turbine unit using fuzzy clustering and subspace methods.

PubMed

Wu, Xiao; Shen, Jiong; Li, Yiguo; Lee, Kwang Y

2014-05-01

This paper develops a novel data-driven fuzzy modeling strategy and predictive controller for boiler-turbine unit using fuzzy clustering and subspace identification (SID) methods. To deal with the nonlinear behavior of boiler-turbine unit, fuzzy clustering is used to provide an appropriate division of the operation region and develop the structure of the fuzzy model. Then by combining the input data with the corresponding fuzzy membership functions, the SID method is extended to extract the local state-space model parameters. Owing to the advantages of the both methods, the resulting fuzzy model can represent the boiler-turbine unit very closely, and a fuzzy model predictive controller is designed based on this model. As an alternative approach, a direct data-driven fuzzy predictive control is also developed following the same clustering and subspace methods, where intermediate subspace matrices developed during the identification procedure are utilized directly as the predictor. Simulation results show the advantages and effectiveness of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Data-driven agent-based modeling, with application to rooftop solar adoption

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Haifeng; Vorobeychik, Yevgeniy; Letchford, Joshua

Agent-based modeling is commonly used for studying complex system properties emergent from interactions among many agents. We present a novel data-driven agent-based modeling framework applied to forecasting individual and aggregate residential rooftop solar adoption in San Diego county. Our first step is to learn a model of individual agent behavior from combined data of individual adoption characteristics and property assessment. We then construct an agent-based simulation with the learned model embedded in artificial agents, and proceed to validate it using a holdout sequence of collective adoption decisions. We demonstrate that the resulting agent-based model successfully forecasts solar adoption trends andmore » provides a meaningful quantification of uncertainty about its predictions. We utilize our model to optimize two classes of policies aimed at spurring solar adoption: one that subsidizes the cost of adoption, and another that gives away free systems to low-income house- holds. We find that the optimal policies derived for the latter class are significantly more efficacious, whereas the policies similar to the current California Solar Initiative incentive scheme appear to have a limited impact on overall adoption trends.« less

Data-driven agent-based modeling, with application to rooftop solar adoption

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Haifeng; Vorobeychik, Yevgeniy; Letchford, Joshua; ...

2016-01-25

Agent-based modeling is commonly used for studying complex system properties emergent from interactions among many agents. We present a novel data-driven agent-based modeling framework applied to forecasting individual and aggregate residential rooftop solar adoption in San Diego county. Our first step is to learn a model of individual agent behavior from combined data of individual adoption characteristics and property assessment. We then construct an agent-based simulation with the learned model embedded in artificial agents, and proceed to validate it using a holdout sequence of collective adoption decisions. We demonstrate that the resulting agent-based model successfully forecasts solar adoption trends andmore » provides a meaningful quantification of uncertainty about its predictions. We utilize our model to optimize two classes of policies aimed at spurring solar adoption: one that subsidizes the cost of adoption, and another that gives away free systems to low-income house- holds. We find that the optimal policies derived for the latter class are significantly more efficacious, whereas the policies similar to the current California Solar Initiative incentive scheme appear to have a limited impact on overall adoption trends.« less

Knowledge-driven genomic interactions: an application in ovarian cancer.

PubMed

Kim, Dokyoon; Li, Ruowang; Dudek, Scott M; Frase, Alex T; Pendergrass, Sarah A; Ritchie, Marylyn D

2014-01-01

Effective cancer clinical outcome prediction for understanding of the mechanism of various types of cancer has been pursued using molecular-based data such as gene expression profiles, an approach that has promise for providing better diagnostics and supporting further therapies. However, clinical outcome prediction based on gene expression profiles varies between independent data sets. Further, single-gene expression outcome prediction is limited for cancer evaluation since genes do not act in isolation, but rather interact with other genes in complex signaling or regulatory networks. In addition, since pathways are more likely to co-operate together, it would be desirable to incorporate expert knowledge to combine pathways in a useful and informative manner. Thus, we propose a novel approach for identifying knowledge-driven genomic interactions and applying it to discover models associated with cancer clinical phenotypes using grammatical evolution neural networks (GENN). In order to demonstrate the utility of the proposed approach, an ovarian cancer data from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) was used for predicting clinical stage as a pilot project. We identified knowledge-driven genomic interactions associated with cancer stage from single knowledge bases such as sources of pathway-pathway interaction, but also knowledge-driven genomic interactions across different sets of knowledge bases such as pathway-protein family interactions by integrating different types of information. Notably, an integration model from different sources of biological knowledge achieved 78.82% balanced accuracy and outperformed the top models with gene expression or single knowledge-based data types alone. Furthermore, the results from the models are more interpretable because they are framed in the context of specific biological pathways or other expert knowledge. The success of the pilot study we have presented herein will allow us to pursue further identification of models predictive of clinical cancer survival and recurrence. Understanding the underlying tumorigenesis and progression in ovarian cancer through the global view of interactions within/between different biological knowledge sources has the potential for providing more effective screening strategies and therapeutic targets for many types of cancer.

Data-Driven Based Asynchronous Motor Control for Printing Servo Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bian, Min; Guo, Qingyun

Modern digital printing equipment aims to the environmental-friendly industry with high dynamic performances and control precision and low vibration and abrasion. High performance motion control system of printing servo systems was required. Control system of asynchronous motor based on data acquisition was proposed. Iterative learning control (ILC) algorithm was studied. PID control was widely used in the motion control. However, it was sensitive to the disturbances and model parameters variation. The ILC applied the history error data and present control signals to approximate the control signal directly in order to fully track the expect trajectory without the system models and structures. The motor control algorithm based on the ILC and PID was constructed and simulation results were given. The results show that data-driven control method is effective dealing with bounded disturbances for the motion control of printing servo systems.

Combining Knowledge and Data Driven Insights for Identifying Risk Factors using Electronic Health Records

PubMed Central

Sun, Jimeng; Hu, Jianying; Luo, Dijun; Markatou, Marianthi; Wang, Fei; Edabollahi, Shahram; Steinhubl, Steven E.; Daar, Zahra; Stewart, Walter F.

2012-01-01

Background: The ability to identify the risk factors related to an adverse condition, e.g., heart failures (HF) diagnosis, is very important for improving care quality and reducing cost. Existing approaches for risk factor identification are either knowledge driven (from guidelines or literatures) or data driven (from observational data). No existing method provides a model to effectively combine expert knowledge with data driven insight for risk factor identification. Methods: We present a systematic approach to enhance known knowledge-based risk factors with additional potential risk factors derived from data. The core of our approach is a sparse regression model with regularization terms that correspond to both knowledge and data driven risk factors. Results: The approach is validated using a large dataset containing 4,644 heart failure cases and 45,981 controls. The outpatient electronic health records (EHRs) for these patients include diagnosis, medication, lab results from 2003–2010. We demonstrate that the proposed method can identify complementary risk factors that are not in the existing known factors and can better predict the onset of HF. We quantitatively compare different sets of risk factors in the context of predicting onset of HF using the performance metric, the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC). The combined risk factors between knowledge and data significantly outperform knowledge-based risk factors alone. Furthermore, those additional risk factors are confirmed to be clinically meaningful by a cardiologist. Conclusion: We present a systematic framework for combining knowledge and data driven insights for risk factor identification. We demonstrate the power of this framework in the context of predicting onset of HF, where our approach can successfully identify intuitive and predictive risk factors beyond a set of known HF risk factors. PMID:23304365

The Distribution and Abundance of Bird Species: Towards a Satellite, Data Driven Avian Energetics and Species Richness Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, James A.

2003-01-01

This paper addresses the fundamental question of why birds occur where and when they do, i.e., what are the causative factors that determine the spatio-temporal distributions, abundance, or richness of bird species? In this paper we outline the first steps toward building a satellite, data-driven model of avian energetics and species richness based on individual bird physiology, morphology, and interaction with the spatio-temporal habitat. To evaluate our model, we will use the North American Breeding Bird Survey and Christmas Bird Count data for species richness, wintering and breeding range. Long term and current satellite data series include AVHRR, Landsat, and MODIS.

Using Historical Data to Automatically Identify Air-Traffic Control Behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lauderdale, Todd A.; Wu, Yuefeng; Tretto, Celeste

2014-01-01

This project seeks to develop statistical-based machine learning models to characterize the types of errors present when using current systems to predict future aircraft states. These models will be data-driven - based on large quantities of historical data. Once these models are developed, they will be used to infer situations in the historical data where an air-traffic controller intervened on an aircraft's route, even when there is no direct recording of this action.

Procedures and models for estimating preconstruction costs of highway projects.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-07-01

This study presents data driven and component based PE cost prediction models by utilizing critical factors retrieved from ten years of historical project data obtained from ODOT roadway division. The study used factor analysis of covariance and corr...

Data-driven outbreak forecasting with a simple nonlinear growth model

PubMed Central

Lega, Joceline; Brown, Heidi E.

2016-01-01

Recent events have thrown the spotlight on infectious disease outbreak response. We developed a data-driven method, EpiGro, which can be applied to cumulative case reports to estimate the order of magnitude of the duration, peak and ultimate size of an ongoing outbreak. It is based on a surprisingly simple mathematical property of many epidemiological data sets, does not require knowledge or estimation of disease transmission parameters, is robust to noise and to small data sets, and runs quickly due to its mathematical simplicity. Using data from historic and ongoing epidemics, we present the model. We also provide modeling considerations that justify this approach and discuss its limitations. In the absence of other information or in conjunction with other models, EpiGro may be useful to public health responders. PMID:27770752

A new concept for simulation of vegetated land surface dynamics - Part 1: The event driven phenology model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovalskyy, V.; Henebry, G. M.

2012-01-01

Phenologies of the vegetated land surface are being used increasingly for diagnosis and prognosis of climate change consequences. Current prospective and retrospective phenological models stand far apart in their approaches to the subject. We report on an exploratory attempt to implement a phenological model based on a new event driven concept which has both diagnostic and prognostic capabilities in the same modeling framework. This Event Driven Phenological Model (EDPM) is shown to simulate land surface phenologies and phenophase transition dates in agricultural landscapes based on assimilation of weather data and land surface observations from spaceborne sensors. The model enables growing season phenologies to develop in response to changing environmental conditions and disturbance events. It also has the ability to ingest remotely sensed data to adjust its output to improve representation of the modeled variable. We describe the model and report results of initial testing of the EDPM using Level 2 flux tower records from the Ameriflux sites at Mead, Nebraska, USA, and at Bondville, Illinois, USA. Simulating the dynamics of normalized difference vegetation index based on flux tower data, the predictions by the EDPM show good agreement (RMSE < 0.08; r2 > 0.8) for maize and soybean during several growing seasons at different locations. This study presents the EDPM used in the companion paper (Kovalskyy and Henebry, 2011) in a coupling scheme to estimate daily actual evapotranspiration over multiple growing seasons.

A new concept for simulation of vegetated land surface dynamics - Part 1: The event driven phenology model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovalskyy, V.; Henebry, G. M.

2011-05-01

Phenologies of the vegetated land surface are being used increasingly for diagnosis and prognosis of climate change consequences. Current prospective and retrospective phenological models stand far apart in their approaches to the subject. We report on an exploratory attempt to implement a phenological model based on a new event driven concept which has both diagnostic and prognostic capabilities in the same modeling framework. This Event Driven Phenological Model (EDPM) is shown to simulate land surface phenologies and phenophase transition dates in agricultural landscapes based on assimilation of weather data and land surface observations from spaceborne sensors. The model enables growing season phenologies to develop in response to changing environmental conditions and disturbance events. It also has the ability to ingest remotely sensed data to adjust its output to improve representation of the modeled variable. We describe the model and report results of initial testing of the EDPM using Level 2 flux tower records from the Ameriflux sites at Mead, Nebraska, USA, and at Bondville, Illinois, USA. Simulating the dynamics of normalized difference vegetation index based on flux tower data, the predictions by the EDPM show good agreement (RMSE < 0.08; r2>0.8) for maize and soybean during several growing seasons at different locations. This study presents the EDPM used in the companion paper (Kovalskyy and Henebry, 2011) in a coupling scheme to estimate daily actual evapotranspiration over multiple growing seasons.

Data-driven modeling, control and tools for cyber-physical energy systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behl, Madhur

Energy systems are experiencing a gradual but substantial change in moving away from being non-interactive and manually-controlled systems to utilizing tight integration of both cyber (computation, communications, and control) and physical representations guided by first principles based models, at all scales and levels. Furthermore, peak power reduction programs like demand response (DR) are becoming increasingly important as the volatility on the grid continues to increase due to regulation, integration of renewables and extreme weather conditions. In order to shield themselves from the risk of price volatility, end-user electricity consumers must monitor electricity prices and be flexible in the ways they choose to use electricity. This requires the use of control-oriented predictive models of an energy system's dynamics and energy consumption. Such models are needed for understanding and improving the overall energy efficiency and operating costs. However, learning dynamical models using grey/white box approaches is very cost and time prohibitive since it often requires significant financial investments in retrofitting the system with several sensors and hiring domain experts for building the model. We present the use of data-driven methods for making model capture easy and efficient for cyber-physical energy systems. We develop Model-IQ, a methodology for analysis of uncertainty propagation for building inverse modeling and controls. Given a grey-box model structure and real input data from a temporary set of sensors, Model-IQ evaluates the effect of the uncertainty propagation from sensor data to model accuracy and to closed-loop control performance. We also developed a statistical method to quantify the bias in the sensor measurement and to determine near optimal sensor placement and density for accurate data collection for model training and control. Using a real building test-bed, we show how performing an uncertainty analysis can reveal trends about inverse model accuracy and control performance, which can be used to make informed decisions about sensor requirements and data accuracy. We also present DR-Advisor, a data-driven demand response recommender system for the building's facilities manager which provides suitable control actions to meet the desired load curtailment while maintaining operations and maximizing the economic reward. We develop a model based control with regression trees algorithm (mbCRT), which allows us to perform closed-loop control for DR strategy synthesis for large commercial buildings. Our data-driven control synthesis algorithm outperforms rule-based demand response methods for a large DoE commercial reference building and leads to a significant amount of load curtailment (of 380kW) and over $45,000 in savings which is 37.9% of the summer energy bill for the building. The performance of DR-Advisor is also evaluated for 8 buildings on Penn's campus; where it achieves 92.8% to 98.9% prediction accuracy. We also compare DR-Advisor with other data driven methods and rank 2nd on ASHRAE's benchmarking data-set for energy prediction.

Coupling physically based and data-driven models for assessing freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayzel, Georgy; Izhitskiy, Alexander

2018-06-01

The Aral Sea desiccation and related changes in hydroclimatic conditions on a regional level is a hot topic for past decades. The key problem of scientific research projects devoted to an investigation of modern Aral Sea basin hydrological regime is its discontinuous nature - the only limited amount of papers takes into account the complex runoff formation system entirely. Addressing this challenge we have developed a continuous prediction system for assessing freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea based on coupling stack of hydrological and data-driven models. Results show a good prediction skill and approve the possibility to develop a valuable water assessment tool which utilizes the power of classical physically based and modern machine learning models both for territories with complex water management system and strong water-related data scarcity. The source code and data of the proposed system is available on a Github page (https://github.com/SMASHIproject/IWRM2018).

Supervised dictionary learning for inferring concurrent brain networks.

PubMed

Zhao, Shijie; Han, Junwei; Lv, Jinglei; Jiang, Xi; Hu, Xintao; Zhao, Yu; Ge, Bao; Guo, Lei; Liu, Tianming

2015-10-01

Task-based fMRI (tfMRI) has been widely used to explore functional brain networks via predefined stimulus paradigm in the fMRI scan. Traditionally, the general linear model (GLM) has been a dominant approach to detect task-evoked networks. However, GLM focuses on task-evoked or event-evoked brain responses and possibly ignores the intrinsic brain functions. In comparison, dictionary learning and sparse coding methods have attracted much attention recently, and these methods have shown the promise of automatically and systematically decomposing fMRI signals into meaningful task-evoked and intrinsic concurrent networks. Nevertheless, two notable limitations of current data-driven dictionary learning method are that the prior knowledge of task paradigm is not sufficiently utilized and that the establishment of correspondences among dictionary atoms in different brains have been challenging. In this paper, we propose a novel supervised dictionary learning and sparse coding method for inferring functional networks from tfMRI data, which takes both of the advantages of model-driven method and data-driven method. The basic idea is to fix the task stimulus curves as predefined model-driven dictionary atoms and only optimize the other portion of data-driven dictionary atoms. Application of this novel methodology on the publicly available human connectome project (HCP) tfMRI datasets has achieved promising results.

Using connectome-based predictive modeling to predict individual behavior from brain connectivity

PubMed Central

Shen, Xilin; Finn, Emily S.; Scheinost, Dustin; Rosenberg, Monica D.; Chun, Marvin M.; Papademetris, Xenophon; Constable, R Todd

2017-01-01

Neuroimaging is a fast developing research area where anatomical and functional images of human brains are collected using techniques such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), diffusion tensor imaging (DTI), and electroencephalography (EEG). Technical advances and large-scale datasets have allowed for the development of models capable of predicting individual differences in traits and behavior using brain connectivity measures derived from neuroimaging data. Here, we present connectome-based predictive modeling (CPM), a data-driven protocol for developing predictive models of brain-behavior relationships from connectivity data using cross-validation. This protocol includes the following steps: 1) feature selection, 2) feature summarization, 3) model building, and 4) assessment of prediction significance. We also include suggestions for visualizing the most predictive features (i.e., brain connections). The final result should be a generalizable model that takes brain connectivity data as input and generates predictions of behavioral measures in novel subjects, accounting for a significant amount of the variance in these measures. It has been demonstrated that the CPM protocol performs equivalently or better than most of the existing approaches in brain-behavior prediction. However, because CPM focuses on linear modeling and a purely data-driven driven approach, neuroscientists with limited or no experience in machine learning or optimization would find it easy to implement the protocols. Depending on the volume of data to be processed, the protocol can take 10–100 minutes for model building, 1–48 hours for permutation testing, and 10–20 minutes for visualization of results. PMID:28182017

Proactive monitoring of an onshore wind farm through lidar measurements, SCADA data and a data-driven RANS solver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iungo, Giacomo Valerio; Camarri, Simone; Ciri, Umberto; El-Asha, Said; Leonardi, Stefano; Rotea, Mario A.; Santhanagopalan, Vignesh; Viola, Francesco; Zhan, Lu

2016-11-01

Site conditions, such as topography and local climate, as well as wind farm layout strongly affect performance of a wind power plant. Therefore, predictions of wake interactions and their effects on power production still remain a great challenge in wind energy. For this study, an onshore wind turbine array was monitored through lidar measurements, SCADA and met-tower data. Power losses due to wake interactions were estimated to be approximately 4% and 2% of the total power production under stable and convective conditions, respectively. This dataset was then leveraged for the calibration of a data driven RANS (DDRANS) solver, which is a compelling tool for prediction of wind turbine wakes and power production. DDRANS is characterized by a computational cost as low as that for engineering wake models, and adequate accuracy achieved through data-driven tuning of the turbulence closure model. DDRANS is based on a parabolic formulation, axisymmetry and boundary layer approximations, which allow achieving low computational costs. The turbulence closure model consists in a mixing length model, which is optimally calibrated with the experimental dataset. Assessment of DDRANS is then performed through lidar and SCADA data for different atmospheric conditions. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under the I/UCRC WindSTAR, NSF Award IIP 1362033.

Data-Driven Robust M-LS-SVR-Based NARX Modeling for Estimation and Control of Molten Iron Quality Indices in Blast Furnace Ironmaking.

PubMed

Zhou, Ping; Guo, Dongwei; Wang, Hong; Chai, Tianyou

2017-09-29

Optimal operation of an industrial blast furnace (BF) ironmaking process largely depends on a reliable measurement of molten iron quality (MIQ) indices, which are not feasible using the conventional sensors. This paper proposes a novel data-driven robust modeling method for the online estimation and control of MIQ indices. First, a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) model is constructed for the MIQ indices to completely capture the nonlinear dynamics of the BF process. Then, considering that the standard least-squares support vector regression (LS-SVR) cannot directly cope with the multioutput problem, a multitask transfer learning is proposed to design a novel multioutput LS-SVR (M-LS-SVR) for the learning of the NARX model. Furthermore, a novel M-estimator is proposed to reduce the interference of outliers and improve the robustness of the M-LS-SVR model. Since the weights of different outlier data are properly given by the weight function, their corresponding contributions on modeling can properly be distinguished, thus a robust modeling result can be achieved. Finally, a novel multiobjective evaluation index on the modeling performance is developed by comprehensively considering the root-mean-square error of modeling and the correlation coefficient on trend fitting, based on which the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II is used to globally optimize the model parameters. Both experiments using industrial data and industrial applications illustrate that the proposed method can eliminate the adverse effect caused by the fluctuation of data in BF process efficiently. This indicates its stronger robustness and higher accuracy. Moreover, control testing shows that the developed model can be well applied to realize data-driven control of the BF process.

Data-Driven Robust M-LS-SVR-Based NARX Modeling for Estimation and Control of Molten Iron Quality Indices in Blast Furnace Ironmaking

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Ping; Guo, Dongwei; Wang, Hong

Optimal operation of an industrial blast furnace (BF) ironmaking process largely depends on a reliable measurement of molten iron quality (MIQ) indices, which are not feasible using the conventional sensors. This paper proposes a novel data-driven robust modeling method for the online estimation and control of MIQ indices. First, a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) model is constructed for the MIQ indices to completely capture the nonlinear dynamics of the BF process. Then, considering that the standard least-squares support vector regression (LS-SVR) cannot directly cope with the multioutput problem, a multitask transfer learning is proposed to design a novel multioutput LS-SVRmore » (M-LS-SVR) for the learning of the NARX model. Furthermore, a novel M-estimator is proposed to reduce the interference of outliers and improve the robustness of the M-LS-SVR model. Since the weights of different outlier data are properly given by the weight function, their corresponding contributions on modeling can properly be distinguished, thus a robust modeling result can be achieved. Finally, a novel multiobjective evaluation index on the modeling performance is developed by comprehensively considering the root-mean-square error of modeling and the correlation coefficient on trend fitting, based on which the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II is used to globally optimize the model parameters. Both experiments using industrial data and industrial applications illustrate that the proposed method can eliminate the adverse effect caused by the fluctuation of data in BF process efficiently. In conclusion, this indicates its stronger robustness and higher accuracy. Moreover, control testing shows that the developed model can be well applied to realize data-driven control of the BF process.« less

Data-Driven Robust M-LS-SVR-Based NARX Modeling for Estimation and Control of Molten Iron Quality Indices in Blast Furnace Ironmaking

DOE PAGES

Zhou, Ping; Guo, Dongwei; Wang, Hong; ...

2017-09-29

Optimal operation of an industrial blast furnace (BF) ironmaking process largely depends on a reliable measurement of molten iron quality (MIQ) indices, which are not feasible using the conventional sensors. This paper proposes a novel data-driven robust modeling method for the online estimation and control of MIQ indices. First, a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) model is constructed for the MIQ indices to completely capture the nonlinear dynamics of the BF process. Then, considering that the standard least-squares support vector regression (LS-SVR) cannot directly cope with the multioutput problem, a multitask transfer learning is proposed to design a novel multioutput LS-SVRmore » (M-LS-SVR) for the learning of the NARX model. Furthermore, a novel M-estimator is proposed to reduce the interference of outliers and improve the robustness of the M-LS-SVR model. Since the weights of different outlier data are properly given by the weight function, their corresponding contributions on modeling can properly be distinguished, thus a robust modeling result can be achieved. Finally, a novel multiobjective evaluation index on the modeling performance is developed by comprehensively considering the root-mean-square error of modeling and the correlation coefficient on trend fitting, based on which the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm II is used to globally optimize the model parameters. Both experiments using industrial data and industrial applications illustrate that the proposed method can eliminate the adverse effect caused by the fluctuation of data in BF process efficiently. In conclusion, this indicates its stronger robustness and higher accuracy. Moreover, control testing shows that the developed model can be well applied to realize data-driven control of the BF process.« less

Smart Water: Energy-Water Optimization in Drinking Water Systems

EPA Science Inventory

This project aims to develop and commercialize a Smart Water Platform – Sensor-based Data-driven Energy-Water Optimization technology in drinking water systems. The key technological advances rely on cross-platform data acquisition and management system, model-based real-time sys...

Electronic Health Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Celaya, Jose R.; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai

2011-01-01

Accelerated aging methodologies for electrolytic components have been designed and accelerated aging experiments have been carried out. The methodology is based on imposing electrical and/or thermal overstresses via electrical power cycling in order to mimic the real world operation behavior. Data are collected in-situ and offline in order to periodically characterize the devices' electrical performance as it ages. The data generated through these experiments are meant to provide capability for the validation of prognostic algorithms (both model-based and data-driven). Furthermore, the data allow validation of physics-based and empirical based degradation models for this type of capacitor. A first set of models and algorithms has been designed and tested on the data.

Relationships between aquatic vegetation and water turbidity: A field survey across seasons and spatial scales

PubMed Central

Austin, Åsa N.; Hansen, Joakim P.; Donadi, Serena; Eklöf, Johan S.

2017-01-01

Field surveys often show that high water turbidity limits cover of aquatic vegetation, while many small-scale experiments show that vegetation can reduce turbidity by decreasing water flow, stabilizing sediments, and competing with phytoplankton for nutrients. Here we bridged these two views by exploring the direction and strength of causal relationships between aquatic vegetation and turbidity across seasons (spring and late summer) and spatial scales (local and regional), using causal modeling based on data from a field survey along the central Swedish Baltic Sea coast. The two best-fitting regional-scale models both suggested that in spring, high cover of vegetation reduces water turbidity. In summer, the relationships differed between the two models; in the first model high vegetation cover reduced turbidity; while in the second model reduction of summer turbidity by high vegetation cover in spring had a positive effect on summer vegetation which suggests a positive feedback of vegetation on itself. Nitrogen load had a positive effect on turbidity in both seasons, which was comparable in strength to the effect of vegetation on turbidity. To assess whether the effect of vegetation was primarily caused by sediment stabilization or a reduction of phytoplankton, we also tested models where turbidity was replaced by phytoplankton fluorescence or sediment-driven turbidity. The best-fitting regional-scale models suggested that high sediment-driven turbidity in spring reduces vegetation cover in summer, which in turn has a negative effect on sediment-driven turbidity in summer, indicating a potential positive feedback of sediment-driven turbidity on itself. Using data at the local scale, few relationships were significant, likely due to the influence of unmeasured variables and/or spatial heterogeneity. In summary, causal modeling based on data from a large-scale field survey suggested that aquatic vegetation can reduce turbidity at regional scales, and that high vegetation cover vs. high sediment-driven turbidity may represent two self-enhancing, alternative states of shallow bay ecosystems. PMID:28854185

Relationships between aquatic vegetation and water turbidity: A field survey across seasons and spatial scales.

PubMed

Austin, Åsa N; Hansen, Joakim P; Donadi, Serena; Eklöf, Johan S

2017-01-01

Field surveys often show that high water turbidity limits cover of aquatic vegetation, while many small-scale experiments show that vegetation can reduce turbidity by decreasing water flow, stabilizing sediments, and competing with phytoplankton for nutrients. Here we bridged these two views by exploring the direction and strength of causal relationships between aquatic vegetation and turbidity across seasons (spring and late summer) and spatial scales (local and regional), using causal modeling based on data from a field survey along the central Swedish Baltic Sea coast. The two best-fitting regional-scale models both suggested that in spring, high cover of vegetation reduces water turbidity. In summer, the relationships differed between the two models; in the first model high vegetation cover reduced turbidity; while in the second model reduction of summer turbidity by high vegetation cover in spring had a positive effect on summer vegetation which suggests a positive feedback of vegetation on itself. Nitrogen load had a positive effect on turbidity in both seasons, which was comparable in strength to the effect of vegetation on turbidity. To assess whether the effect of vegetation was primarily caused by sediment stabilization or a reduction of phytoplankton, we also tested models where turbidity was replaced by phytoplankton fluorescence or sediment-driven turbidity. The best-fitting regional-scale models suggested that high sediment-driven turbidity in spring reduces vegetation cover in summer, which in turn has a negative effect on sediment-driven turbidity in summer, indicating a potential positive feedback of sediment-driven turbidity on itself. Using data at the local scale, few relationships were significant, likely due to the influence of unmeasured variables and/or spatial heterogeneity. In summary, causal modeling based on data from a large-scale field survey suggested that aquatic vegetation can reduce turbidity at regional scales, and that high vegetation cover vs. high sediment-driven turbidity may represent two self-enhancing, alternative states of shallow bay ecosystems.

Scenario driven data modelling: a method for integrating diverse sources of data and data streams

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Biology is rapidly becoming a data intensive, data-driven science. It is essential that data is represented and connected in ways that best represent its full conceptual content and allows both automated integration and data driven decision-making. Recent advancements in distributed multi-relational directed graphs, implemented in the form of the Semantic Web make it possible to deal with complicated heterogeneous data in new and interesting ways. Results This paper presents a new approach, scenario driven data modelling (SDDM), that integrates multi-relational directed graphs with data streams. SDDM can be applied to virtually any data integration challenge with widely divergent types of data and data streams. In this work, we explored integrating genetics data with reports from traditional media. SDDM was applied to the New Delhi metallo-beta-lactamase gene (NDM-1), an emerging global health threat. The SDDM process constructed a scenario, created a RDF multi-relational directed graph that linked diverse types of data to the Semantic Web, implemented RDF conversion tools (RDFizers) to bring content into the Sematic Web, identified data streams and analytical routines to analyse those streams, and identified user requirements and graph traversals to meet end-user requirements. Conclusions We provided an example where SDDM was applied to a complex data integration challenge. The process created a model of the emerging NDM-1 health threat, identified and filled gaps in that model, and constructed reliable software that monitored data streams based on the scenario derived multi-relational directed graph. The SDDM process significantly reduced the software requirements phase by letting the scenario and resulting multi-relational directed graph define what is possible and then set the scope of the user requirements. Approaches like SDDM will be critical to the future of data intensive, data-driven science because they automate the process of converting massive data streams into usable knowledge. PMID:22165854

Globally-Applicable Predictive Wildfire Model   a Temporal-Spatial GIS Based Risk Analysis Using Data Driven Fuzzy Logic Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Dool, G.

2017-11-01

This study (van den Dool, 2017) is a proof of concept for a global predictive wildfire model, in which the temporal-spatial characteristics of wildfires are placed in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and the risk analysis is based on data-driven fuzzy logic functions. The data sources used in this model are available as global datasets, but subdivided into three pilot areas: North America (California/Nevada), Europe (Spain), and Asia (Mongolia), and are downscaled to the highest resolution (3-arc second). The GIS is constructed around three themes: topography, fuel availability and climate. From the topographical data, six derived sub-themes are created and converted to a fuzzy membership based on the catchment area statistics. The fuel availability score is a composite of four data layers: land cover, wood loads, biomass, biovolumes. As input for the climatological sub-model reanalysed daily averaged, weather-related data is used, which is accumulated to a global weekly time-window (to account for the uncertainty within the climatological model) and forms the temporal component of the model. The final product is a wildfire risk score (from 0 to 1) by week, representing the average wildfire risk in an area. To compute the potential wildfire risk the sub-models are combined usinga Multi-Criteria Approach, and the model results are validated against the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve.

Modular, Semantics-Based Composition of Biosimulation Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neal, Maxwell Lewis

2010-01-01

Biosimulation models are valuable, versatile tools used for hypothesis generation and testing, codification of biological theory, education, and patient-specific modeling. Driven by recent advances in computational power and the accumulation of systems-level experimental data, modelers today are creating models with an unprecedented level of…

Integrating Model-Driven and Data-Driven Techniques for Analyzing Learning Behaviors in Open-Ended Learning Environments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kinnebrew, John S.; Segedy, James R.; Biswas, Gautam

2017-01-01

Research in computer-based learning environments has long recognized the vital role of adaptivity in promoting effective, individualized learning among students. Adaptive scaffolding capabilities are particularly important in open-ended learning environments, which provide students with opportunities for solving authentic and complex problems, and…

A Multi-layer, Data-driven Advanced Reasoning Tool for Intelligent Data Mining and Analysis for Smart Grids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Ning; Du, Pengwei; Greitzer, Frank L.

2012-12-31

This paper presents the multi-layer, data-driven advanced reasoning tool (M-DART), a proof-of-principle decision support tool for improved power system operation. M-DART will cross-correlate and examine different data sources to assess anomalies, infer root causes, and anneal data into actionable information. By performing higher-level reasoning “triage” of diverse data sources, M-DART focuses on early detection of emerging power system events and identifies highest priority actions for the human decision maker. M-DART represents a significant advancement over today’s grid monitoring technologies that apply offline analyses to derive model-based guidelines for online real-time operations and use isolated data processing mechanisms focusing on individualmore » data domains. The development of the M-DART will bridge these gaps by reasoning about results obtained from multiple data sources that are enabled by the smart grid infrastructure. This hybrid approach integrates a knowledge base that is trained offline but tuned online to capture model-based relationships while revealing complex causal relationships among data from different domains.« less

Machine learning based cloud mask algorithm driven by radiative transfer modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, N.; Li, W.; Tanikawa, T.; Hori, M.; Shimada, R.; Stamnes, K. H.

2017-12-01

Cloud detection is a critically important first step required to derive many satellite data products. Traditional threshold based cloud mask algorithms require a complicated design process and fine tuning for each sensor, and have difficulty over snow/ice covered areas. With the advance of computational power and machine learning techniques, we have developed a new algorithm based on a neural network classifier driven by extensive radiative transfer modeling. Statistical validation results obtained by using collocated CALIOP and MODIS data show that its performance is consistent over different ecosystems and significantly better than the MODIS Cloud Mask (MOD35 C6) during the winter seasons over mid-latitude snow covered areas. Simulations using a reduced number of satellite channels also show satisfactory results, indicating its flexibility to be configured for different sensors.

CD volume design and verification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Li, Y. P.; Hughes, J. S.

1993-01-01

In this paper, we describe a prototype for CD-ROM volume design and verification. This prototype allows users to create their own model of CD volumes by modifying a prototypical model. Rule-based verification of the test volumes can then be performed later on against the volume definition. This working prototype has proven the concept of model-driven rule-based design and verification for large quantity of data. The model defined for the CD-ROM volumes becomes a data model as well as an executable specification.

Open-ocean boundary conditions from interior data: Local and remote forcing of Massachusetts Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bogden, P.S.; Malanotte-Rizzoli, P.; Signell, R.

1996-01-01

Massachusetts and Cape Cod Bays form a semienclosed coastal basin that opens onto the much larger Gulf of Maine. Subtidal circulation in the bay is driven by local winds and remotely driven flows from the gulf. The local-wind forced flow is estimated with a regional shallow water model driven by wind measurements. The model uses a gravity wave radiation condition along the open-ocean boundary. Results compare reasonably well with observed currents near the coast. In some offshore regions however, modeled flows are an order of magnitude less energetic than the data. Strong flows are observed even during periods of weak local wind forcing. Poor model-data comparisons are attributable, at least in part, to open-ocean boundary conditions that neglect the effects of remote forcing. Velocity measurements from within Massachusetts Bay are used to estimate the remotely forced component of the flow. The data are combined with shallow water dynamics in an inverse-model formulation that follows the theory of Bennett and McIntosh [1982], who considered tides. We extend their analysis to consider the subtidal response to transient forcing. The inverse model adjusts the a priori open-ocean boundary condition, thereby minimizing a combined measure of model-data misfit and boundary condition adjustment. A "consistency criterion" determines the optimal trade-off between the two. The criterion is based on a measure of plausibility for the inverse solution. The "consistent" inverse solution reproduces 56% of the average squared variation in the data. The local-wind-driven flow alone accounts for half of the model skill. The other half is attributable to remotely forced flows from the Gulf of Maine. The unexplained 44% comes from measurement errors and model errors that are not accounted for in the analysis. 

Evaluation of Anomaly Detection Capability for Ground-Based Pre-Launch Shuttle Operations. Chapter 8

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, Rodney Alexander

2010-01-01

This chapter will provide a thorough end-to-end description of the process for evaluation of three different data-driven algorithms for anomaly detection to select the best candidate for deployment as part of a suite of IVHM (Integrated Vehicle Health Management) technologies. These algorithms were deemed to be sufficiently mature enough to be considered viable candidates for deployment in support of the maiden launch of Ares I-X, the successor to the Space Shuttle for NASA's Constellation program. Data-driven algorithms are just one of three different types being deployed. The other two types of algorithms being deployed include a "nile-based" expert system, and a "model-based" system. Within these two categories, the deployable candidates have already been selected based upon qualitative factors such as flight heritage. For the rule-based system, SHINE (Spacecraft High-speed Inference Engine) has been selected for deployment, which is a component of BEAM (Beacon-based Exception Analysis for Multimissions), a patented technology developed at NASA's JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) and serves to aid in the management and identification of operational modes. For the "model-based" system, a commercially available package developed by QSI (Qualtech Systems, Inc.), TEAMS (Testability Engineering and Maintenance System) has been selected for deployment to aid in diagnosis. In the context of this particular deployment, distinctions among the use of the terms "data-driven," "rule-based," and "model-based," can be found in. Although there are three different categories of algorithms that have been selected for deployment, our main focus in this chapter will be on the evaluation of three candidates for data-driven anomaly detection. These algorithms will be evaluated upon their capability for robustly detecting incipient faults or failures in the ground-based phase of pre-launch space shuttle operations, rather than based oil heritage as performed in previous studies. Robust detection will allow for the achievement of pre-specified minimum false alarm and/or missed detection rates in the selection of alert thresholds. All algorithms will also be optimized with respect to an aggregation of these same criteria. Our study relies upon the use of Shuttle data to act as was a proxy for and in preparation for application to Ares I-X data, which uses a very similar hardware platform for the subsystems that are being targeted (TVC - Thrust Vector Control subsystem for the SRB (Solid Rocket Booster)).

Estimating Setup of Driven Piles into Louisiana Clayey Soils

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-11-15

Two types of mathematical models for pile setup prediction, the Skov-Denver model and the newly developed rate-based model, have been established from all the dynamic and static testing data, including restrikes of the production piles, restrikes, st...

Estimating setup of driven piles into Louisiana clayey soils.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-11-15

Two types of mathematical models for pile setup prediction, the Skov-Denver model and the newly developed rate-based model, have been established from all the dynamic and static testing data, including restrikes of the production piles, restrikes, st...

Catchments as non-linear filters: evaluating data-driven approaches for spatio-temporal predictions in ungauged basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellugi, D. G.; Tennant, C.; Larsen, L.

2016-12-01

Catchment and climate heterogeneity complicate prediction of runoff across time and space, and resulting parameter uncertainty can lead to large accumulated errors in hydrologic models, particularly in ungauged basins. Recently, data-driven modeling approaches have been shown to avoid the accumulated uncertainty associated with many physically-based models, providing an appealing alternative for hydrologic prediction. However, the effectiveness of different methods in hydrologically and geomorphically distinct catchments, and the robustness of these methods to changing climate and changing hydrologic processes remain to be tested. Here, we evaluate the use of machine learning techniques to predict daily runoff across time and space using only essential climatic forcing (e.g. precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration) time series as model input. Model training and testing was done using a high quality dataset of daily runoff and climate forcing data for 25+ years for 600+ minimally-disturbed catchments (drainage area range 5-25,000 km2, median size 336 km2) that cover a wide range of climatic and physical characteristics. Preliminary results using Support Vector Regression (SVR) suggest that in some catchments this nonlinear-based regression technique can accurately predict daily runoff, while the same approach fails in other catchments, indicating that the representation of climate inputs and/or catchment filter characteristics in the model structure need further refinement to increase performance. We bolster this analysis by using Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (a sparse symbolic regression technique) to uncover the governing equations that describe runoff processes in catchments where SVR performed well and for ones where it performed poorly, thereby enabling inference about governing processes. This provides a robust means of examining how catchment complexity influences runoff prediction skill, and represents a contribution towards the integration of data-driven inference and physically-based models.

A Systems' Biology Approach to Study MicroRNA-Mediated Gene Regulatory Networks

PubMed Central

Kunz, Manfred; Vera, Julio; Wolkenhauer, Olaf

2013-01-01

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are potent effectors in gene regulatory networks where aberrant miRNA expression can contribute to human diseases such as cancer. For a better understanding of the regulatory role of miRNAs in coordinating gene expression, we here present a systems biology approach combining data-driven modeling and model-driven experiments. Such an approach is characterized by an iterative process, including biological data acquisition and integration, network construction, mathematical modeling and experimental validation. To demonstrate the application of this approach, we adopt it to investigate mechanisms of collective repression on p21 by multiple miRNAs. We first construct a p21 regulatory network based on data from the literature and further expand it using algorithms that predict molecular interactions. Based on the network structure, a detailed mechanistic model is established and its parameter values are determined using data. Finally, the calibrated model is used to study the effect of different miRNA expression profiles and cooperative target regulation on p21 expression levels in different biological contexts. PMID:24350286

A Data-Driven Approach to Reverse Engineering Customer Engagement Models: Towards Functional Constructs

PubMed Central

de Vries, Natalie Jane; Carlson, Jamie; Moscato, Pablo

2014-01-01

Online consumer behavior in general and online customer engagement with brands in particular, has become a major focus of research activity fuelled by the exponential increase of interactive functions of the internet and social media platforms and applications. Current research in this area is mostly hypothesis-driven and much debate about the concept of Customer Engagement and its related constructs remains existent in the literature. In this paper, we aim to propose a novel methodology for reverse engineering a consumer behavior model for online customer engagement, based on a computational and data-driven perspective. This methodology could be generalized and prove useful for future research in the fields of consumer behaviors using questionnaire data or studies investigating other types of human behaviors. The method we propose contains five main stages; symbolic regression analysis, graph building, community detection, evaluation of results and finally, investigation of directed cycles and common feedback loops. The ‘communities’ of questionnaire items that emerge from our community detection method form possible ‘functional constructs’ inferred from data rather than assumed from literature and theory. Our results show consistent partitioning of questionnaire items into such ‘functional constructs’ suggesting the method proposed here could be adopted as a new data-driven way of human behavior modeling. PMID:25036766

A data-driven approach to reverse engineering customer engagement models: towards functional constructs.

PubMed

de Vries, Natalie Jane; Carlson, Jamie; Moscato, Pablo

2014-01-01

Online consumer behavior in general and online customer engagement with brands in particular, has become a major focus of research activity fuelled by the exponential increase of interactive functions of the internet and social media platforms and applications. Current research in this area is mostly hypothesis-driven and much debate about the concept of Customer Engagement and its related constructs remains existent in the literature. In this paper, we aim to propose a novel methodology for reverse engineering a consumer behavior model for online customer engagement, based on a computational and data-driven perspective. This methodology could be generalized and prove useful for future research in the fields of consumer behaviors using questionnaire data or studies investigating other types of human behaviors. The method we propose contains five main stages; symbolic regression analysis, graph building, community detection, evaluation of results and finally, investigation of directed cycles and common feedback loops. The 'communities' of questionnaire items that emerge from our community detection method form possible 'functional constructs' inferred from data rather than assumed from literature and theory. Our results show consistent partitioning of questionnaire items into such 'functional constructs' suggesting the method proposed here could be adopted as a new data-driven way of human behavior modeling.

A remote-sensing driven tool for estimating crop stress and yields

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Biophysical crop simulation models are normally forced with precipitation data recorded with either gages or ground-based radar. However, ground based recording networks are not available at spatial and temporal scales needed to drive the models at many critical places on earth. An alternative would...

Heterogeneous postsurgical data analytics for predictive modeling of mortality risks in intensive care units.

PubMed

Yun Chen; Hui Yang

2014-01-01

The rapid advancements of biomedical instrumentation and healthcare technology have resulted in data-rich environments in hospitals. However, the meaningful information extracted from rich datasets is limited. There is a dire need to go beyond current medical practices, and develop data-driven methods and tools that will enable and help (i) the handling of big data, (ii) the extraction of data-driven knowledge, (iii) the exploitation of acquired knowledge for optimizing clinical decisions. This present study focuses on the prediction of mortality rates in Intensive Care Units (ICU) using patient-specific healthcare recordings. It is worth mentioning that postsurgical monitoring in ICU leads to massive datasets with unique properties, e.g., variable heterogeneity, patient heterogeneity, and time asyncronization. To cope with the challenges in ICU datasets, we developed the postsurgical decision support system with a series of analytical tools, including data categorization, data pre-processing, feature extraction, feature selection, and predictive modeling. Experimental results show that the proposed data-driven methodology outperforms traditional approaches and yields better results based on the evaluation of real-world ICU data from 4000 subjects in the database. This research shows great potentials for the use of data-driven analytics to improve the quality of healthcare services.

A survey of real face modeling methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaoyue; Dai, Yugang; He, Xiangzhen; Wan, Fucheng

2017-09-01

The face model has always been a research challenge in computer graphics, which involves the coordination of multiple organs in faces. This article explained two kinds of face modeling method which is based on the data driven and based on parameter control, analyzed its content and background, summarized their advantages and disadvantages, and concluded muscle model which is based on the anatomy of the principle has higher veracity and easy to drive.

Data-driven outbreak forecasting with a simple nonlinear growth model.

PubMed

Lega, Joceline; Brown, Heidi E

2016-12-01

Recent events have thrown the spotlight on infectious disease outbreak response. We developed a data-driven method, EpiGro, which can be applied to cumulative case reports to estimate the order of magnitude of the duration, peak and ultimate size of an ongoing outbreak. It is based on a surprisingly simple mathematical property of many epidemiological data sets, does not require knowledge or estimation of disease transmission parameters, is robust to noise and to small data sets, and runs quickly due to its mathematical simplicity. Using data from historic and ongoing epidemics, we present the model. We also provide modeling considerations that justify this approach and discuss its limitations. In the absence of other information or in conjunction with other models, EpiGro may be useful to public health responders. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Federated ontology-based queries over cancer data

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Personalised medicine provides patients with treatments that are specific to their genetic profiles. It requires efficient data sharing of disparate data types across a variety of scientific disciplines, such as molecular biology, pathology, radiology and clinical practice. Personalised medicine aims to offer the safest and most effective therapeutic strategy based on the gene variations of each subject. In particular, this is valid in oncology, where knowledge about genetic mutations has already led to new therapies. Current molecular biology techniques (microarrays, proteomics, epigenetic technology and improved DNA sequencing technology) enable better characterisation of cancer tumours. The vast amounts of data, however, coupled with the use of different terms - or semantic heterogeneity - in each discipline makes the retrieval and integration of information difficult. Results Existing software infrastructures for data-sharing in the cancer domain, such as caGrid, support access to distributed information. caGrid follows a service-oriented model-driven architecture. Each data source in caGrid is associated with metadata at increasing levels of abstraction, including syntactic, structural, reference and domain metadata. The domain metadata consists of ontology-based annotations associated with the structural information of each data source. However, caGrid's current querying functionality is given at the structural metadata level, without capitalising on the ontology-based annotations. This paper presents the design of and theoretical foundations for distributed ontology-based queries over cancer research data. Concept-based queries are reformulated to the target query language, where join conditions between multiple data sources are found by exploiting the semantic annotations. The system has been implemented, as a proof of concept, over the caGrid infrastructure. The approach is applicable to other model-driven architectures. A graphical user interface has been developed, supporting ontology-based queries over caGrid data sources. An extensive evaluation of the query reformulation technique is included. Conclusions To support personalised medicine in oncology, it is crucial to retrieve and integrate molecular, pathology, radiology and clinical data in an efficient manner. The semantic heterogeneity of the data makes this a challenging task. Ontologies provide a formal framework to support querying and integration. This paper provides an ontology-based solution for querying distributed databases over service-oriented, model-driven infrastructures. PMID:22373043

CEREF: A hybrid data-driven model for forecasting annual streamflow from a socio-hydrological system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hongbo; Singh, Vijay P.; Wang, Bin; Yu, Yinghao

2016-09-01

Hydrological forecasting is complicated by flow regime alterations in a coupled socio-hydrologic system, encountering increasingly non-stationary, nonlinear and irregular changes, which make decision support difficult for future water resources management. Currently, many hybrid data-driven models, based on the decomposition-prediction-reconstruction principle, have been developed to improve the ability to make predictions of annual streamflow. However, there exist many problems that require further investigation, the chief among which is the direction of trend components decomposed from annual streamflow series and is always difficult to ascertain. In this paper, a hybrid data-driven model was proposed to capture this issue, which combined empirical mode decomposition (EMD), radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and external forces (EF) variable, also called the CEREF model. The hybrid model employed EMD for decomposition and RBFNN for intrinsic mode function (IMF) forecasting, and determined future trend component directions by regression with EF as basin water demand representing the social component in the socio-hydrologic system. The Wuding River basin was considered for the case study, and two standard statistical measures, root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), were used to evaluate the performance of CEREF model and compare with other models: the autoregressive (AR), RBFNN and EMD-RBFNN. Results indicated that the CEREF model had lower RMSE and MAE statistics, 42.8% and 7.6%, respectively, than did other models, and provided a superior alternative for forecasting annual runoff in the Wuding River basin. Moreover, the CEREF model can enlarge the effective intervals of streamflow forecasting compared to the EMD-RBFNN model by introducing the water demand planned by the government department to improve long-term prediction accuracy. In addition, we considered the high-frequency component, a frequent subject of concern in EMD-based forecasting, and results showed that removing high-frequency component is an effective measure to improve forecasting precision and is suggested for use with the CEREF model for better performance. Finally, the study concluded that the CEREF model can be used to forecast non-stationary annual streamflow change as a co-evolution of hydrologic and social systems with better accuracy. Also, the modification about removing high-frequency can further improve the performance of the CEREF model. It should be noted that the CEREF model is beneficial for data-driven hydrologic forecasting in complex socio-hydrologic systems, and as a simple data-driven socio-hydrologic forecasting model, deserves more attention.

A Conceptual Analytics Model for an Outcome-Driven Quality Management Framework as Part of Professional Healthcare Education.

PubMed

Hervatis, Vasilis; Loe, Alan; Barman, Linda; O'Donoghue, John; Zary, Nabil

2015-10-06

Preparing the future health care professional workforce in a changing world is a significant undertaking. Educators and other decision makers look to evidence-based knowledge to improve quality of education. Analytics, the use of data to generate insights and support decisions, have been applied successfully across numerous application domains. Health care professional education is one area where great potential is yet to be realized. Previous research of Academic and Learning analytics has mainly focused on technical issues. The focus of this study relates to its practical implementation in the setting of health care education. The aim of this study is to create a conceptual model for a deeper understanding of the synthesizing process, and transforming data into information to support educators' decision making. A deductive case study approach was applied to develop the conceptual model. The analytics loop works both in theory and in practice. The conceptual model encompasses the underlying data, the quality indicators, and decision support for educators. The model illustrates how a theory can be applied to a traditional data-driven analytics approach, and alongside the context- or need-driven analytics approach.

A Conceptual Analytics Model for an Outcome-Driven Quality Management Framework as Part of Professional Healthcare Education

PubMed Central

Loe, Alan; Barman, Linda; O'Donoghue, John; Zary, Nabil

2015-01-01

Background Preparing the future health care professional workforce in a changing world is a significant undertaking. Educators and other decision makers look to evidence-based knowledge to improve quality of education. Analytics, the use of data to generate insights and support decisions, have been applied successfully across numerous application domains. Health care professional education is one area where great potential is yet to be realized. Previous research of Academic and Learning analytics has mainly focused on technical issues. The focus of this study relates to its practical implementation in the setting of health care education. Objective The aim of this study is to create a conceptual model for a deeper understanding of the synthesizing process, and transforming data into information to support educators’ decision making. Methods A deductive case study approach was applied to develop the conceptual model. Results The analytics loop works both in theory and in practice. The conceptual model encompasses the underlying data, the quality indicators, and decision support for educators. Conclusions The model illustrates how a theory can be applied to a traditional data-driven analytics approach, and alongside the context- or need-driven analytics approach. PMID:27731840

A model of strength

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Douglas H.; Cook, R.D.

2013-01-01

In her AAAS News & Notes piece "Can the Southwest manage its thirst?" (26 July, p. 362), K. Wren quotes Ajay Kalra, who advocates a particular method for predicting Colorado River streamflow "because it eschews complex physical climate models for a statistical data-driven modeling approach." A preference for data-driven models may be appropriate in this individual situation, but it is not so generally, Data-driven models often come with a warning against extrapolating beyond the range of the data used to develop the models. When the future is like the past, data-driven models can work well for prediction, but it is easy to over-model local or transient phenomena, often leading to predictive inaccuracy (1). Mechanistic models are built on established knowledge of the process that connects the response variables with the predictors, using information obtained outside of an extant data set. One may shy away from a mechanistic approach when the underlying process is judged to be too complicated, but good predictive models can be constructed with statistical components that account for ingredients missing in the mechanistic analysis. Models with sound mechanistic components are more generally applicable and robust than data-driven models.

Optimizing preventive maintenance policy: A data-driven application for a light rail braking system.

PubMed

Corman, Francesco; Kraijema, Sander; Godjevac, Milinko; Lodewijks, Gabriel

2017-10-01

This article presents a case study determining the optimal preventive maintenance policy for a light rail rolling stock system in terms of reliability, availability, and maintenance costs. The maintenance policy defines one of the three predefined preventive maintenance actions at fixed time-based intervals for each of the subsystems of the braking system. Based on work, maintenance, and failure data, we model the reliability degradation of the system and its subsystems under the current maintenance policy by a Weibull distribution. We then analytically determine the relation between reliability, availability, and maintenance costs. We validate the model against recorded reliability and availability and get further insights by a dedicated sensitivity analysis. The model is then used in a sequential optimization framework determining preventive maintenance intervals to improve on the key performance indicators. We show the potential of data-driven modelling to determine optimal maintenance policy: same system availability and reliability can be achieved with 30% maintenance cost reduction, by prolonging the intervals and re-grouping maintenance actions.

Optimizing preventive maintenance policy: A data-driven application for a light rail braking system

PubMed Central

Corman, Francesco; Kraijema, Sander; Godjevac, Milinko; Lodewijks, Gabriel

2017-01-01

This article presents a case study determining the optimal preventive maintenance policy for a light rail rolling stock system in terms of reliability, availability, and maintenance costs. The maintenance policy defines one of the three predefined preventive maintenance actions at fixed time-based intervals for each of the subsystems of the braking system. Based on work, maintenance, and failure data, we model the reliability degradation of the system and its subsystems under the current maintenance policy by a Weibull distribution. We then analytically determine the relation between reliability, availability, and maintenance costs. We validate the model against recorded reliability and availability and get further insights by a dedicated sensitivity analysis. The model is then used in a sequential optimization framework determining preventive maintenance intervals to improve on the key performance indicators. We show the potential of data-driven modelling to determine optimal maintenance policy: same system availability and reliability can be achieved with 30% maintenance cost reduction, by prolonging the intervals and re-grouping maintenance actions. PMID:29278245

Network Model-Assisted Inference from Respondent-Driven Sampling Data

PubMed Central

Gile, Krista J.; Handcock, Mark S.

2015-01-01

Summary Respondent-Driven Sampling is a widely-used method for sampling hard-to-reach human populations by link-tracing over their social networks. Inference from such data requires specialized techniques because the sampling process is both partially beyond the control of the researcher, and partially implicitly defined. Therefore, it is not generally possible to directly compute the sampling weights for traditional design-based inference, and likelihood inference requires modeling the complex sampling process. As an alternative, we introduce a model-assisted approach, resulting in a design-based estimator leveraging a working network model. We derive a new class of estimators for population means and a corresponding bootstrap standard error estimator. We demonstrate improved performance compared to existing estimators, including adjustment for an initial convenience sample. We also apply the method and an extension to the estimation of HIV prevalence in a high-risk population. PMID:26640328

Network Model-Assisted Inference from Respondent-Driven Sampling Data.

PubMed

Gile, Krista J; Handcock, Mark S

2015-06-01

Respondent-Driven Sampling is a widely-used method for sampling hard-to-reach human populations by link-tracing over their social networks. Inference from such data requires specialized techniques because the sampling process is both partially beyond the control of the researcher, and partially implicitly defined. Therefore, it is not generally possible to directly compute the sampling weights for traditional design-based inference, and likelihood inference requires modeling the complex sampling process. As an alternative, we introduce a model-assisted approach, resulting in a design-based estimator leveraging a working network model. We derive a new class of estimators for population means and a corresponding bootstrap standard error estimator. We demonstrate improved performance compared to existing estimators, including adjustment for an initial convenience sample. We also apply the method and an extension to the estimation of HIV prevalence in a high-risk population.

Assessing Coupled Social Ecological Flood Vulnerability from Uttarakhand, India, to the State of New York with Google Earth Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tellman, B.; Schwarz, B.

2014-12-01

This talk describes the development of a web application to predict and communicate vulnerability to floods given publicly available data, disaster science, and geotech cloud capabilities. The proof of concept in Google Earth Engine API with initial testing on case studies in New York and Utterakhand India demonstrates the potential of highly parallelized cloud computing to model socio-ecological disaster vulnerability at high spatial and temporal resolution and in near real time. Cloud computing facilitates statistical modeling with variables derived from large public social and ecological data sets, including census data, nighttime lights (NTL), and World Pop to derive social parameters together with elevation, satellite imagery, rainfall, and observed flood data from Dartmouth Flood Observatory to derive biophysical parameters. While more traditional, physically based hydrological models that rely on flow algorithms and numerical methods are currently unavailable in parallelized computing platforms like Google Earth Engine, there is high potential to explore "data driven" modeling that trades physics for statistics in a parallelized environment. A data driven approach to flood modeling with geographically weighted logistic regression has been initially tested on Hurricane Irene in southeastern New York. Comparison of model results with observed flood data reveals a 97% accuracy of the model to predict flooded pixels. Testing on multiple storms is required to further validate this initial promising approach. A statistical social-ecological flood model that could produce rapid vulnerability assessments to predict who might require immediate evacuation and where could serve as an early warning. This type of early warning system would be especially relevant in data poor places lacking the computing power, high resolution data such as LiDar and stream gauges, or hydrologic expertise to run physically based models in real time. As the data-driven model presented relies on globally available data, the only real time data input required would be typical data from a weather service, e.g. precipitation or coarse resolution flood prediction. However, model uncertainty will vary locally depending upon the resolution and frequency of observed flood and socio-economic damage impact data.

Simulation of high-energy radiation belt electron fluxes using NARMAX-VERB coupled codes

PubMed Central

Pakhotin, I P; Drozdov, A Y; Shprits, Y Y; Boynton, R J; Subbotin, D A; Balikhin, M A

2014-01-01

This study presents a fusion of data-driven and physics-driven methodologies of energetic electron flux forecasting in the outer radiation belt. Data-driven NARMAX (Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Averages with eXogenous inputs) model predictions for geosynchronous orbit fluxes have been used as an outer boundary condition to drive the physics-based Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code, to simulate energetic electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt environment. The coupled system has been tested for three extended time periods totalling several weeks of observations. The time periods involved periods of quiet, moderate, and strong geomagnetic activity and captured a range of dynamics typical of the radiation belts. The model has successfully simulated energetic electron fluxes for various magnetospheric conditions. Physical mechanisms that may be responsible for the discrepancies between the model results and observations are discussed. PMID:26167432

Assessment of cardiovascular risk based on a data-driven knowledge discovery approach.

PubMed

Mendes, D; Paredes, S; Rocha, T; Carvalho, P; Henriques, J; Cabiddu, R; Morais, J

2015-01-01

The cardioRisk project addresses the development of personalized risk assessment tools for patients who have been admitted to the hospital with acute myocardial infarction. Although there are models available that assess the short-term risk of death/new events for such patients, these models were established in circumstances that do not take into account the present clinical interventions and, in some cases, the risk factors used by such models are not easily available in clinical practice. The integration of the existing risk tools (applied in the clinician's daily practice) with data-driven knowledge discovery mechanisms based on data routinely collected during hospitalizations, will be a breakthrough in overcoming some of these difficulties. In this context, the development of simple and interpretable models (based on recent datasets), unquestionably will facilitate and will introduce confidence in this integration process. In this work, a simple and interpretable model based on a real dataset is proposed. It consists of a decision tree model structure that uses a reduced set of six binary risk factors. The validation is performed using a recent dataset provided by the Portuguese Society of Cardiology (11113 patients), which originally comprised 77 risk factors. A sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of, respectively, 80.42%, 77.25% and 78.80% were achieved showing the effectiveness of the approach.

A data-driven approach to identify controls on global fire activity from satellite and climate observations (SOFIA V1)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forkel, Matthias; Dorigo, Wouter; Lasslop, Gitta; Teubner, Irene; Chuvieco, Emilio; Thonicke, Kirsten

2017-12-01

Vegetation fires affect human infrastructures, ecosystems, global vegetation distribution, and atmospheric composition. However, the climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors that control global fire activity in vegetation are only poorly understood, and in various complexities and formulations are represented in global process-oriented vegetation-fire models. Data-driven model approaches such as machine learning algorithms have successfully been used to identify and better understand controlling factors for fire activity. However, such machine learning models cannot be easily adapted or even implemented within process-oriented global vegetation-fire models. To overcome this gap between machine learning-based approaches and process-oriented global fire models, we introduce a new flexible data-driven fire modelling approach here (Satellite Observations to predict FIre Activity, SOFIA approach version 1). SOFIA models can use several predictor variables and functional relationships to estimate burned area that can be easily adapted with more complex process-oriented vegetation-fire models. We created an ensemble of SOFIA models to test the importance of several predictor variables. SOFIA models result in the highest performance in predicting burned area if they account for a direct restriction of fire activity under wet conditions and if they include a land cover-dependent restriction or allowance of fire activity by vegetation density and biomass. The use of vegetation optical depth data from microwave satellite observations, a proxy for vegetation biomass and water content, reaches higher model performance than commonly used vegetation variables from optical sensors. We further analyse spatial patterns of the sensitivity between anthropogenic, climate, and vegetation predictor variables and burned area. We finally discuss how multiple observational datasets on climate, hydrological, vegetation, and socioeconomic variables together with data-driven modelling and model-data integration approaches can guide the future development of global process-oriented vegetation-fire models.

BMI cyberworkstation: enabling dynamic data-driven brain-machine interface research through cyberinfrastructure.

PubMed

Zhao, Ming; Rattanatamrong, Prapaporn; DiGiovanna, Jack; Mahmoudi, Babak; Figueiredo, Renato J; Sanchez, Justin C; Príncipe, José C; Fortes, José A B

2008-01-01

Dynamic data-driven brain-machine interfaces (DDDBMI) have great potential to advance the understanding of neural systems and improve the design of brain-inspired rehabilitative systems. This paper presents a novel cyberinfrastructure that couples in vivo neurophysiology experimentation with massive computational resources to provide seamless and efficient support of DDDBMI research. Closed-loop experiments can be conducted with in vivo data acquisition, reliable network transfer, parallel model computation, and real-time robot control. Behavioral experiments with live animals are supported with real-time guarantees. Offline studies can be performed with various configurations for extensive analysis and training. A Web-based portal is also provided to allow users to conveniently interact with the cyberinfrastructure, conducting both experimentation and analysis. New motor control models are developed based on this approach, which include recursive least square based (RLS) and reinforcement learning based (RLBMI) algorithms. The results from an online RLBMI experiment shows that the cyberinfrastructure can successfully support DDDBMI experiments and meet the desired real-time requirements.

Data-driven Modelling for decision making under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angria S, Layla; Dwi Sari, Yunita; Zarlis, Muhammad; Tulus

2018-01-01

The rise of the issues with the uncertainty of decision making has become a very warm conversation in operation research. Many models have been presented, one of which is with data-driven modelling (DDM). The purpose of this paper is to extract and recognize patterns in data, and find the best model in decision-making problem under uncertainty by using data-driven modeling approach with linear programming, linear and nonlinear differential equation, bayesian approach. Model criteria tested to determine the smallest error, and it will be the best model that can be used.

Data-adaptive Harmonic Decomposition and Real-time Prediction of Arctic Sea Ice Extent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kondrashov, Dmitri; Chekroun, Mickael; Ghil, Michael

2017-04-01

Decline in the Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) has profound socio-economic implications and is a focus of active scientific research. Of particular interest is prediction of SIE on subseasonal time scales, i.e. from early summer into fall, when sea ice coverage in Arctic reaches its minimum. However, subseasonal forecasting of SIE is very challenging due to the high variability of ocean and atmosphere over Arctic in summer, as well as shortness of observational data and inadequacies of the physics-based models to simulate sea-ice dynamics. The Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) by Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN, http://www.arcus.org/sipn) is a collaborative effort to facilitate and improve subseasonal prediction of September SIE by physics-based and data-driven statistical models. Data-adaptive Harmonic Decomposition (DAH) and Multilayer Stuart-Landau Models (MSLM) techniques [Chekroun and Kondrashov, 2017], have been successfully applied to the nonlinear stochastic modeling, as well as retrospective and real-time forecasting of Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent (MASIE) dataset in key four Arctic regions. In particular, DAH-MSLM predictions outperformed most statistical models and physics-based models in real-time 2016 SIO submissions. The key success factors are associated with DAH ability to disentangle complex regional dynamics of MASIE by data-adaptive harmonic spatio-temporal patterns that reduce the data-driven modeling effort to elemental MSLMs stacked per frequency with fixed and small number of model coefficients to estimate.

Handling Real-World Context Awareness, Uncertainty and Vagueness in Real-Time Human Activity Tracking and Recognition with a Fuzzy Ontology-Based Hybrid Method

PubMed Central

Díaz-Rodríguez, Natalia; Cadahía, Olmo León; Cuéllar, Manuel Pegalajar; Lilius, Johan; Calvo-Flores, Miguel Delgado

2014-01-01

Human activity recognition is a key task in ambient intelligence applications to achieve proper ambient assisted living. There has been remarkable progress in this domain, but some challenges still remain to obtain robust methods. Our goal in this work is to provide a system that allows the modeling and recognition of a set of complex activities in real life scenarios involving interaction with the environment. The proposed framework is a hybrid model that comprises two main modules: a low level sub-activity recognizer, based on data-driven methods, and a high-level activity recognizer, implemented with a fuzzy ontology to include the semantic interpretation of actions performed by users. The fuzzy ontology is fed by the sub-activities recognized by the low level data-driven component and provides fuzzy ontological reasoning to recognize both the activities and their influence in the environment with semantics. An additional benefit of the approach is the ability to handle vagueness and uncertainty in the knowledge-based module, which substantially outperforms the treatment of incomplete and/or imprecise data with respect to classic crisp ontologies. We validate these advantages with the public CAD-120 dataset (Cornell Activity Dataset), achieving an accuracy of 90.1% and 91.07% for low-level and high-level activities, respectively. This entails an improvement over fully data-driven or ontology-based approaches. PMID:25268914

Quantifying model-structure- and parameter-driven uncertainties in spring wheat phenology prediction with Bayesian analysis

DOE PAGES

Alderman, Phillip D.; Stanfill, Bryan

2016-10-06

Recent international efforts have brought renewed emphasis on the comparison of different agricultural systems models. Thus far, analysis of model-ensemble simulated results has not clearly differentiated between ensemble prediction uncertainties due to model structural differences per se and those due to parameter value uncertainties. Additionally, despite increasing use of Bayesian parameter estimation approaches with field-scale crop models, inadequate attention has been given to the full posterior distributions for estimated parameters. The objectives of this study were to quantify the impact of parameter value uncertainty on prediction uncertainty for modeling spring wheat phenology using Bayesian analysis and to assess the relativemore » contributions of model-structure-driven and parameter-value-driven uncertainty to overall prediction uncertainty. This study used a random walk Metropolis algorithm to estimate parameters for 30 spring wheat genotypes using nine phenology models based on multi-location trial data for days to heading and days to maturity. Across all cases, parameter-driven uncertainty accounted for between 19 and 52% of predictive uncertainty, while model-structure-driven uncertainty accounted for between 12 and 64%. Here, this study demonstrated the importance of quantifying both model-structure- and parameter-value-driven uncertainty when assessing overall prediction uncertainty in modeling spring wheat phenology. More generally, Bayesian parameter estimation provided a useful framework for quantifying and analyzing sources of prediction uncertainty.« less

Reconstruction of dynamic image series from undersampled MRI data using data-driven model consistency condition (MOCCO).

PubMed

Velikina, Julia V; Samsonov, Alexey A

2015-11-01

To accelerate dynamic MR imaging through development of a novel image reconstruction technique using low-rank temporal signal models preestimated from training data. We introduce the model consistency condition (MOCCO) technique, which utilizes temporal models to regularize reconstruction without constraining the solution to be low-rank, as is performed in related techniques. This is achieved by using a data-driven model to design a transform for compressed sensing-type regularization. The enforcement of general compliance with the model without excessively penalizing deviating signal allows recovery of a full-rank solution. Our method was compared with a standard low-rank approach utilizing model-based dimensionality reduction in phantoms and patient examinations for time-resolved contrast-enhanced angiography (CE-MRA) and cardiac CINE imaging. We studied the sensitivity of all methods to rank reduction and temporal subspace modeling errors. MOCCO demonstrated reduced sensitivity to modeling errors compared with the standard approach. Full-rank MOCCO solutions showed significantly improved preservation of temporal fidelity and aliasing/noise suppression in highly accelerated CE-MRA (acceleration up to 27) and cardiac CINE (acceleration up to 15) data. MOCCO overcomes several important deficiencies of previously proposed methods based on pre-estimated temporal models and allows high quality image restoration from highly undersampled CE-MRA and cardiac CINE data. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

RECONSTRUCTION OF DYNAMIC IMAGE SERIES FROM UNDERSAMPLED MRI DATA USING DATA-DRIVEN MODEL CONSISTENCY CONDITION (MOCCO)

PubMed Central

Velikina, Julia V.; Samsonov, Alexey A.

2014-01-01

Purpose To accelerate dynamic MR imaging through development of a novel image reconstruction technique using low-rank temporal signal models pre-estimated from training data. Theory We introduce the MOdel Consistency COndition (MOCCO) technique that utilizes temporal models to regularize the reconstruction without constraining the solution to be low-rank as performed in related techniques. This is achieved by using a data-driven model to design a transform for compressed sensing-type regularization. The enforcement of general compliance with the model without excessively penalizing deviating signal allows recovery of a full-rank solution. Methods Our method was compared to standard low-rank approach utilizing model-based dimensionality reduction in phantoms and patient examinations for time-resolved contrast-enhanced angiography (CE MRA) and cardiac CINE imaging. We studied sensitivity of all methods to rank-reduction and temporal subspace modeling errors. Results MOCCO demonstrated reduced sensitivity to modeling errors compared to the standard approach. Full-rank MOCCO solutions showed significantly improved preservation of temporal fidelity and aliasing/noise suppression in highly accelerated CE MRA (acceleration up to 27) and cardiac CINE (acceleration up to 15) data. Conclusions MOCCO overcomes several important deficiencies of previously proposed methods based on pre-estimated temporal models and allows high quality image restoration from highly undersampled CE-MRA and cardiac CINE data. PMID:25399724

Studies and analyses of the space shuttle main engine. Failure information propagation model data base and software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tischer, A. E.

1987-01-01

The failure information propagation model (FIPM) data base was developed to store and manipulate the large amount of information anticipated for the various Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) FIPMs. The organization and structure of the FIPM data base is described, including a summary of the data fields and key attributes associated with each FIPM data file. The menu-driven software developed to facilitate and control the entry, modification, and listing of data base records is also discussed. The transfer of the FIPM data base and software to the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center is described. Complete listings of all of the data base definition commands and software procedures are included in the appendixes.

Linear dynamical modes as new variables for data-driven ENSO forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavrilov, Andrey; Seleznev, Aleksei; Mukhin, Dmitry; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander; Kurths, Juergen

2018-05-01

A new data-driven model for analysis and prediction of spatially distributed time series is proposed. The model is based on a linear dynamical mode (LDM) decomposition of the observed data which is derived from a recently developed nonlinear dimensionality reduction approach. The key point of this approach is its ability to take into account simple dynamical properties of the observed system by means of revealing the system's dominant time scales. The LDMs are used as new variables for empirical construction of a nonlinear stochastic evolution operator. The method is applied to the sea surface temperature anomaly field in the tropical belt where the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main mode of variability. The advantage of LDMs versus traditionally used empirical orthogonal function decomposition is demonstrated for this data. Specifically, it is shown that the new model has a competitive ENSO forecast skill in comparison with the other existing ENSO models.

Modeling noisy resonant system response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Patrick Thomas; Walrath, David Edwin

2017-02-01

In this paper, a theory-based model replicating empirical acoustic resonant signals is presented and studied to understand sources of noise present in acoustic signals. Statistical properties of empirical signals are quantified and a noise amplitude parameter, which models frequency and amplitude-based noise, is created, defined, and presented. This theory-driven model isolates each phenomenon and allows for parameters to be independently studied. Using seven independent degrees of freedom, this model will accurately reproduce qualitative and quantitative properties measured from laboratory data. Results are presented and demonstrate success in replicating qualitative and quantitative properties of experimental data.

Intelligent fuzzy controller for event-driven real time systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grantner, Janos; Patyra, Marek; Stachowicz, Marian S.

1992-01-01

Most of the known linguistic models are essentially static, that is, time is not a parameter in describing the behavior of the object's model. In this paper we show a model for synchronous finite state machines based on fuzzy logic. Such finite state machines can be used to build both event-driven, time-varying, rule-based systems and the control unit section of a fuzzy logic computer. The architecture of a pipelined intelligent fuzzy controller is presented, and the linguistic model is represented by an overall fuzzy relation stored in a single rule memory. A VLSI integrated circuit implementation of the fuzzy controller is suggested. At a clock rate of 30 MHz, the controller can perform 3 MFLIPS on multi-dimensional fuzzy data.

Perceived Social Relationships and Science Learning Outcomes for Taiwanese Eighth Graders: Structural Equation Modeling with a Complex Sampling Consideration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jen, Tsung-Hau; Lee, Che-Di; Chien, Chin-Lung; Hsu, Ying-Shao; Chen, Kuan-Ming

2013-01-01

Based on the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study 2007 study and a follow-up national survey, data for 3,901 Taiwanese grade 8 students were analyzed using structural equation modeling to confirm a social-relation-based affection-driven model (SRAM). SRAM hypothesized relationships among students' perceived social relationships in…

Predictive Monitoring for Improved Management of Glucose Levels

PubMed Central

Reifman, Jaques; Rajaraman, Srinivasan; Gribok, Andrei; Ward, W. Kenneth

2007-01-01

Background Recent developments and expected near-future improvements in continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices provide opportunities to couple them with mathematical forecasting models to produce predictive monitoring systems for early, proactive glycemia management of diabetes mellitus patients before glucose levels drift to undesirable levels. This article assesses the feasibility of data-driven models to serve as the forecasting engine of predictive monitoring systems. Methods We investigated the capabilities of data-driven autoregressive (AR) models to (1) capture the correlations in glucose time-series data, (2) make accurate predictions as a function of prediction horizon, and (3) be made portable from individual to individual without any need for model tuning. The investigation is performed by employing CGM data from nine type 1 diabetic subjects collected over a continuous 5-day period. Results With CGM data serving as the gold standard, AR model-based predictions of glucose levels assessed over nine subjects with Clarke error grid analysis indicated that, for a 30-minute prediction horizon, individually tuned models yield 97.6 to 100.0% of data in the clinically acceptable zones A and B, whereas cross-subject, portable models yield 95.8 to 99.7% of data in zones A and B. Conclusions This study shows that, for a 30-minute prediction horizon, data-driven AR models provide sufficiently-accurate and clinically-acceptable estimates of glucose levels for timely, proactive therapy and should be considered as the modeling engine for predictive monitoring of patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus. It also suggests that AR models can be made portable from individual to individual with minor performance penalties, while greatly reducing the burden associated with model tuning and data collection for model development. PMID:19885110

Genetic programming based quantitative structure-retention relationships for the prediction of Kovats retention indices.

PubMed

Goel, Purva; Bapat, Sanket; Vyas, Renu; Tambe, Amruta; Tambe, Sanjeev S

2015-11-13

The development of quantitative structure-retention relationships (QSRR) aims at constructing an appropriate linear/nonlinear model for the prediction of the retention behavior (such as Kovats retention index) of a solute on a chromatographic column. Commonly, multi-linear regression and artificial neural networks are used in the QSRR development in the gas chromatography (GC). In this study, an artificial intelligence based data-driven modeling formalism, namely genetic programming (GP), has been introduced for the development of quantitative structure based models predicting Kovats retention indices (KRI). The novelty of the GP formalism is that given an example dataset, it searches and optimizes both the form (structure) and the parameters of an appropriate linear/nonlinear data-fitting model. Thus, it is not necessary to pre-specify the form of the data-fitting model in the GP-based modeling. These models are also less complex, simple to understand, and easy to deploy. The effectiveness of GP in constructing QSRRs has been demonstrated by developing models predicting KRIs of light hydrocarbons (case study-I) and adamantane derivatives (case study-II). In each case study, two-, three- and four-descriptor models have been developed using the KRI data available in the literature. The results of these studies clearly indicate that the GP-based models possess an excellent KRI prediction accuracy and generalization capability. Specifically, the best performing four-descriptor models in both the case studies have yielded high (>0.9) values of the coefficient of determination (R(2)) and low values of root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percent error (MAPE) for training, test and validation set data. The characteristic feature of this study is that it introduces a practical and an effective GP-based method for developing QSRRs in gas chromatography that can be gainfully utilized for developing other types of data-driven models in chromatography science. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A web-based data-querying tool based on ontology-driven methodology and flowchart-based model.

PubMed

Ping, Xiao-Ou; Chung, Yufang; Tseng, Yi-Ju; Liang, Ja-Der; Yang, Pei-Ming; Huang, Guan-Tarn; Lai, Feipei

2013-10-08

Because of the increased adoption rate of electronic medical record (EMR) systems, more health care records have been increasingly accumulating in clinical data repositories. Therefore, querying the data stored in these repositories is crucial for retrieving the knowledge from such large volumes of clinical data. The aim of this study is to develop a Web-based approach for enriching the capabilities of the data-querying system along the three following considerations: (1) the interface design used for query formulation, (2) the representation of query results, and (3) the models used for formulating query criteria. The Guideline Interchange Format version 3.5 (GLIF3.5), an ontology-driven clinical guideline representation language, was used for formulating the query tasks based on the GLIF3.5 flowchart in the Protégé environment. The flowchart-based data-querying model (FBDQM) query execution engine was developed and implemented for executing queries and presenting the results through a visual and graphical interface. To examine a broad variety of patient data, the clinical data generator was implemented to automatically generate the clinical data in the repository, and the generated data, thereby, were employed to evaluate the system. The accuracy and time performance of the system for three medical query tasks relevant to liver cancer were evaluated based on the clinical data generator in the experiments with varying numbers of patients. In this study, a prototype system was developed to test the feasibility of applying a methodology for building a query execution engine using FBDQMs by formulating query tasks using the existing GLIF. The FBDQM-based query execution engine was used to successfully retrieve the clinical data based on the query tasks formatted using the GLIF3.5 in the experiments with varying numbers of patients. The accuracy of the three queries (ie, "degree of liver damage," "degree of liver damage when applying a mutually exclusive setting," and "treatments for liver cancer") was 100% for all four experiments (10 patients, 100 patients, 1000 patients, and 10,000 patients). Among the three measured query phases, (1) structured query language operations, (2) criteria verification, and (3) other, the first two had the longest execution time. The ontology-driven FBDQM-based approach enriched the capabilities of the data-querying system. The adoption of the GLIF3.5 increased the potential for interoperability, shareability, and reusability of the query tasks.

Sensitivity of polar ozone recovery predictions of the GMI 3D CTM to GCM and DAS dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Considine, D.; Connell, P.; Strahan, S.; Douglass, A.; Rotman, D.

2003-04-01

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) 3-D chemistry and transport model has been used to generate 2 simulations of the 1995-2030 time period. The 36-year simulations both used the source gas and aerosol boundary conditions of the 2002 World Meteorological Organization assessment exercise MA2. The first simulation was based on a single year of meteorological data (winds, temperatures) generated by the new Goddard Space Flight Center "Finite Volume" General Circulation Model (FVGCM), repeated for each year of the simulation. The second simulation used a year of meteorological data generated by a new data assimilation system based on the FVGCM (FVDAS), using observations for July 1, 1999 - June 30, 2000. All other aspects of the two simulations were identical. The increase in vortex-averaged south polar springtime ozone concentrations in the lower stratosphere over the course of the simulations is more robust in the simulation driven by the GCM meteorological data than in the simulation driven by DAS winds. At the same time, the decrease in estimated chemical springtime ozone loss is similar. We thus attribute the differences between the two simulations to differences in the representations of polar dynamics which reduce the sensitivity of the simulation driven by DAS winds to changes in vortex chemistry. We also evaluate the representations in the two simulations of trace constituent distributions in the current polar lower stratosphere using various observations. In these comparisons the GCM-based simulation often is in better agreement with the observations than the DAS-based simulation.

Simulating Flying Insects Using Dynamics and Data-Driven Noise Modeling to Generate Diverse Collective Behaviors

PubMed Central

Ren, Jiaping; Wang, Xinjie; Manocha, Dinesh

2016-01-01

We present a biologically plausible dynamics model to simulate swarms of flying insects. Our formulation, which is based on biological conclusions and experimental observations, is designed to simulate large insect swarms of varying densities. We use a force-based model that captures different interactions between the insects and the environment and computes collision-free trajectories for each individual insect. Furthermore, we model the noise as a constructive force at the collective level and present a technique to generate noise-induced insect movements in a large swarm that are similar to those observed in real-world trajectories. We use a data-driven formulation that is based on pre-recorded insect trajectories. We also present a novel evaluation metric and a statistical validation approach that takes into account various characteristics of insect motions. In practice, the combination of Curl noise function with our dynamics model is used to generate realistic swarm simulations and emergent behaviors. We highlight its performance for simulating large flying swarms of midges, fruit fly, locusts and moths and demonstrate many collective behaviors, including aggregation, migration, phase transition, and escape responses. PMID:27187068

Using the Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing Model in the Eye Clinic at The Hospital for Sick Children: A Case Study and Lessons Learned.

PubMed

Gulati, Sanchita; During, David; Mainland, Jeff; Wong, Agnes M F

2018-01-01

One of the key challenges to healthcare organizations is the development of relevant and accurate cost information. In this paper, we used time-driven activity-based costing (TDABC) method to calculate the costs of treating individual patients with specific medical conditions over their full cycle of care. We discussed how TDABC provides a critical, systematic and data-driven approach to estimate costs accurately and dynamically, as well as its potential to enable structural and rational cost reduction to bring about a sustainable healthcare system. © 2018 Longwoods Publishing.

Imaging plus X: multimodal models of neurodegenerative disease.

PubMed

Oxtoby, Neil P; Alexander, Daniel C

2017-08-01

This article argues that the time is approaching for data-driven disease modelling to take centre stage in the study and management of neurodegenerative disease. The snowstorm of data now available to the clinician defies qualitative evaluation; the heterogeneity of data types complicates integration through traditional statistical methods; and the large datasets becoming available remain far from the big-data sizes necessary for fully data-driven machine-learning approaches. The recent emergence of data-driven disease progression models provides a balance between imposed knowledge of disease features and patterns learned from data. The resulting models are both predictive of disease progression in individual patients and informative in terms of revealing underlying biological patterns. Largely inspired by observational models, data-driven disease progression models have emerged in the last few years as a feasible means for understanding the development of neurodegenerative diseases. These models have revealed insights into frontotemporal dementia, Huntington's disease, multiple sclerosis, Parkinson's disease and other conditions. For example, event-based models have revealed finer graded understanding of progression patterns; self-modelling regression and differential equation models have provided data-driven biomarker trajectories; spatiotemporal models have shown that brain shape changes, for example of the hippocampus, can occur before detectable neurodegeneration; and network models have provided some support for prion-like mechanistic hypotheses of disease propagation. The most mature results are in sporadic Alzheimer's disease, in large part because of the availability of the Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging initiative dataset. Results generally support the prevailing amyloid-led hypothetical model of Alzheimer's disease, while revealing finer detail and insight into disease progression. The emerging field of disease progression modelling provides a natural mechanism to integrate different kinds of information, for example from imaging, serum and cerebrospinal fluid markers and cognitive tests, to obtain new insights into progressive diseases. Such insights include fine-grained longitudinal patterns of neurodegeneration, from early stages, and the heterogeneity of these trajectories over the population. More pragmatically, such models enable finer precision in patient staging and stratification, prediction of progression rates and earlier and better identification of at-risk individuals. We argue that this will make disease progression modelling invaluable for recruitment and end-points in future clinical trials, potentially ameliorating the high failure rate in trials of, e.g., Alzheimer's disease therapies. We review the state of the art in these techniques and discuss the future steps required to translate the ideas to front-line application.

Modeling Martian Dust Using Mars-GRAM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justh, Hilary L.; Justus, C. G.

2010-01-01

Engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. Mars-GRAM s perturbation modeling capability is commonly used, in a Monte-Carlo mode, to perform high fidelity engineering end-to-end simulations for entry, descent, and landing (EDL). From the surface to 80 km altitude, Mars-GRAM is based on NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM). Mars-GRAM and MGCM use surface topography from Mars Global Surveyor Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA), with altitudes referenced to the MOLA areoid, or constant potential surface. Traditional Mars-GRAM options for representing the mean atmosphere along entry corridors include: TES Mapping Years 1 and 2, with Mars-GRAM data coming from MGCM model results driven by observed TES dust optical depth TES Mapping Year 0, with user-controlled dust optical depth and Mars-GRAM data interpolated from MGCM model results driven by selected values of globally-uniform dust optical depth. Mars-GRAM 2005 has been validated against Radio Science data, and both nadir and limb data from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES).

Optimizing methods for linking cinematic features to fMRI data.

PubMed

Kauttonen, Janne; Hlushchuk, Yevhen; Tikka, Pia

2015-04-15

One of the challenges of naturalistic neurosciences using movie-viewing experiments is how to interpret observed brain activations in relation to the multiplicity of time-locked stimulus features. As previous studies have shown less inter-subject synchronization across viewers of random video footage than story-driven films, new methods need to be developed for analysis of less story-driven contents. To optimize the linkage between our fMRI data collected during viewing of a deliberately non-narrative silent film 'At Land' by Maya Deren (1944) and its annotated content, we combined the method of elastic-net regularization with the model-driven linear regression and the well-established data-driven independent component analysis (ICA) and inter-subject correlation (ISC) methods. In the linear regression analysis, both IC and region-of-interest (ROI) time-series were fitted with time-series of a total of 36 binary-valued and one real-valued tactile annotation of film features. The elastic-net regularization and cross-validation were applied in the ordinary least-squares linear regression in order to avoid over-fitting due to the multicollinearity of regressors, the results were compared against both the partial least-squares (PLS) regression and the un-regularized full-model regression. Non-parametric permutation testing scheme was applied to evaluate the statistical significance of regression. We found statistically significant correlation between the annotation model and 9 ICs out of 40 ICs. Regression analysis was also repeated for a large set of cubic ROIs covering the grey matter. Both IC- and ROI-based regression analyses revealed activations in parietal and occipital regions, with additional smaller clusters in the frontal lobe. Furthermore, we found elastic-net based regression more sensitive than PLS and un-regularized regression since it detected a larger number of significant ICs and ROIs. Along with the ISC ranking methods, our regression analysis proved a feasible method for ordering the ICs based on their functional relevance to the annotated cinematic features. The novelty of our method is - in comparison to the hypothesis-driven manual pre-selection and observation of some individual regressors biased by choice - in applying data-driven approach to all content features simultaneously. We found especially the combination of regularized regression and ICA useful when analyzing fMRI data obtained using non-narrative movie stimulus with a large set of complex and correlated features. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

XplOit: An Ontology-Based Data Integration Platform Supporting the Development of Predictive Models for Personalized Medicine.

PubMed

Weiler, Gabriele; Schwarz, Ulf; Rauch, Jochen; Rohm, Kerstin; Lehr, Thorsten; Theobald, Stefan; Kiefer, Stephan; Götz, Katharina; Och, Katharina; Pfeifer, Nico; Handl, Lisa; Smola, Sigrun; Ihle, Matthias; Turki, Amin T; Beelen, Dietrich W; Rissland, Jürgen; Bittenbring, Jörg; Graf, Norbert

2018-01-01

Predictive models can support physicians to tailor interventions and treatments to their individual patients based on their predicted response and risk of disease and help in this way to put personalized medicine into practice. In allogeneic stem cell transplantation risk assessment is to be enhanced in order to respond to emerging viral infections and transplantation reactions. However, to develop predictive models it is necessary to harmonize and integrate high amounts of heterogeneous medical data that is stored in different health information systems. Driven by the demand for predictive instruments in allogeneic stem cell transplantation we present in this paper an ontology-based platform that supports data owners and model developers to share and harmonize their data for model development respecting data privacy.

The application of domain-driven design in NMS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jinsong; Chen, Yan; Qin, Shengjun

2011-12-01

In the traditional design approach of data-model-driven, system analysis and design phases are often separated which makes the demand information can not be expressed explicitly. The method is also easy to lead developer to the process-oriented programming, making codes between the modules or between hierarchies disordered. So it is hard to meet requirement of system scalability. The paper proposes a software hiberarchy based on rich domain model according to domain-driven design named FHRDM, then the Webwork + Spring + Hibernate (WSH) framework is determined. Domain-driven design aims to construct a domain model which not only meets the demand of the field where the software exists but also meets the need of software development. In this way, problems in Navigational Maritime System (NMS) development like big system business volumes, difficulty of requirement elicitation, high development costs and long development cycle can be resolved successfully.

A data-driven modeling approach to stochastic computation for low-energy biomedical devices.

PubMed

Lee, Kyong Ho; Jang, Kuk Jin; Shoeb, Ali; Verma, Naveen

2011-01-01

Low-power devices that can detect clinically relevant correlations in physiologically-complex patient signals can enable systems capable of closed-loop response (e.g., controlled actuation of therapeutic stimulators, continuous recording of disease states, etc.). In ultra-low-power platforms, however, hardware error sources are becoming increasingly limiting. In this paper, we present how data-driven methods, which allow us to accurately model physiological signals, also allow us to effectively model and overcome prominent hardware error sources with nearly no additional overhead. Two applications, EEG-based seizure detection and ECG-based arrhythmia-beat classification, are synthesized to a logic-gate implementation, and two prominent error sources are introduced: (1) SRAM bit-cell errors and (2) logic-gate switching errors ('stuck-at' faults). Using patient data from the CHB-MIT and MIT-BIH databases, performance similar to error-free hardware is achieved even for very high fault rates (up to 0.5 for SRAMs and 7 × 10(-2) for logic) that cause computational bit error rates as high as 50%.

Development of a Stochastically-driven, Forward Predictive Performance Model for PEMFCs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harvey, David Benjamin Paul

A one-dimensional multi-scale coupled, transient, and mechanistic performance model for a PEMFC membrane electrode assembly has been developed. The model explicitly includes each of the 5 layers within a membrane electrode assembly and solves for the transport of charge, heat, mass, species, dissolved water, and liquid water. Key features of the model include the use of a multi-step implementation of the HOR reaction on the anode, agglomerate catalyst sub-models for both the anode and cathode catalyst layers, a unique approach that links the composition of the catalyst layer to key properties within the agglomerate model and the implementation of a stochastic input-based approach for component material properties. The model employs a new methodology for validation using statistically varying input parameters and statistically-based experimental performance data; this model represents the first stochastic input driven unit cell performance model. The stochastic input driven performance model was used to identify optimal ionomer content within the cathode catalyst layer, demonstrate the role of material variation in potential low performing MEA materials, provide explanation for the performance of low-Pt loaded MEAs, and investigate the validity of transient-sweep experimental diagnostic methods.

HMM-based lexicon-driven and lexicon-free word recognition for online handwritten Indic scripts.

PubMed

Bharath, A; Madhvanath, Sriganesh

2012-04-01

Research for recognizing online handwritten words in Indic scripts is at its early stages when compared to Latin and Oriental scripts. In this paper, we address this problem specifically for two major Indic scripts--Devanagari and Tamil. In contrast to previous approaches, the techniques we propose are largely data driven and script independent. We propose two different techniques for word recognition based on Hidden Markov Models (HMM): lexicon driven and lexicon free. The lexicon-driven technique models each word in the lexicon as a sequence of symbol HMMs according to a standard symbol writing order derived from the phonetic representation. The lexicon-free technique uses a novel Bag-of-Symbols representation of the handwritten word that is independent of symbol order and allows rapid pruning of the lexicon. On handwritten Devanagari word samples featuring both standard and nonstandard symbol writing orders, a combination of lexicon-driven and lexicon-free recognizers significantly outperforms either of them used in isolation. In contrast, most Tamil word samples feature the standard symbol order, and the lexicon-driven recognizer outperforms the lexicon free one as well as their combination. The best recognition accuracies obtained for 20,000 word lexicons are 87.13 percent for Devanagari when the two recognizers are combined, and 91.8 percent for Tamil using the lexicon-driven technique.

Model‐Based Approach to Predict Adherence to Protocol During Antiobesity Trials

PubMed Central

Sharma, Vishnu D.; Combes, François P.; Vakilynejad, Majid; Lahu, Gezim; Lesko, Lawrence J.

2017-01-01

Abstract Development of antiobesity drugs is continuously challenged by high dropout rates during clinical trials. The objective was to develop a population pharmacodynamic model that describes the temporal changes in body weight, considering disease progression, lifestyle intervention, and drug effects. Markov modeling (MM) was applied for quantification and characterization of responder and nonresponder as key drivers of dropout rates, to ultimately support the clinical trial simulations and the outcome in terms of trial adherence. Subjects (n = 4591) from 6 Contrave® trials were included in this analysis. An indirect‐response model developed by van Wart et al was used as a starting point. Inclusion of drug effect was dose driven using a population dose‐ and time‐dependent pharmacodynamic (DTPD) model. Additionally, a population‐pharmacokinetic parameter‐ and data (PPPD)‐driven model was developed using the final DTPD model structure and final parameter estimates from a previously developed population pharmacokinetic model based on available Contrave® pharmacokinetic concentrations. Last, MM was developed to predict transition rate probabilities among responder, nonresponder, and dropout states driven by the pharmacodynamic effect resulting from the DTPD or PPPD model. Covariates included in the models and parameters were diabetes mellitus and race. The linked DTPD‐MM and PPPD‐MM was able to predict transition rates among responder, nonresponder, and dropout states well. The analysis concluded that body‐weight change is an important factor influencing dropout rates, and the MM depicted that overall a DTPD model‐driven approach provides a reasonable prediction of clinical trial outcome probabilities similar to a pharmacokinetic‐driven approach. PMID:28858397

A user-friendly, menu-driven, language-free laser characteristics curves graphing program for desk-top IBM PC compatible computers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klutz, Glenn

1989-01-01

A facility was established that uses collected data and feeds it into mathematical models that generate improved data arrays by correcting for various losses, base line drift, and conversion to unity scaling. These developed data arrays have headers and other identifying information affixed and are subsequently stored in a Laser Materials and Characteristics data base which is accessible to various users. The two part data base: absorption - emission spectra and tabulated data, is developed around twelve laser models. The tabulated section of the data base is divided into several parts: crystalline, optical, mechanical, and thermal properties; aborption and emission spectra information; chemical name and formulas; and miscellaneous. A menu-driven, language-free graphing program will reduce and/or remove the requirement that users become competent FORTRAN programmers and the concomitant requirement that they also spend several days to a few weeks becoming conversant with the GEOGRAF library and sequence of calls and the continual refreshers of both. The work included becoming thoroughly conversant with or at least very familiar with GEOGRAF by GEOCOMP Corp. The development of the graphing program involved trial runs of the various callable library routines on dummy data in order to become familiar with actual implementation and sequencing. This was followed by trial runs with actual data base files and some additional data from current research that was not in the data base but currently needed graphs. After successful runs, with dummy and real data, using actual FORTRAN instructions steps were undertaken to develop the menu-driven language-free implementation of a program which would require the user only know how to use microcomputers. The user would simply be responding to items displayed on the video screen. To assist the user in arriving at the optimum values needed for a specific graph, a paper, and pencil check list was made available to use on the trial runs.

A data-driven dynamics simulation framework for railway vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nie, Yinyu; Tang, Zhao; Liu, Fengjia; Chang, Jian; Zhang, Jianjun

2018-03-01

The finite element (FE) method is essential for simulating vehicle dynamics with fine details, especially for train crash simulations. However, factors such as the complexity of meshes and the distortion involved in a large deformation would undermine its calculation efficiency. An alternative method, the multi-body (MB) dynamics simulation provides satisfying time efficiency but limited accuracy when highly nonlinear dynamic process is involved. To maintain the advantages of both methods, this paper proposes a data-driven simulation framework for dynamics simulation of railway vehicles. This framework uses machine learning techniques to extract nonlinear features from training data generated by FE simulations so that specific mesh structures can be formulated by a surrogate element (or surrogate elements) to replace the original mechanical elements, and the dynamics simulation can be implemented by co-simulation with the surrogate element(s) embedded into a MB model. This framework consists of a series of techniques including data collection, feature extraction, training data sampling, surrogate element building, and model evaluation and selection. To verify the feasibility of this framework, we present two case studies, a vertical dynamics simulation and a longitudinal dynamics simulation, based on co-simulation with MATLAB/Simulink and Simpack, and a further comparison with a popular data-driven model (the Kriging model) is provided. The simulation result shows that using the legendre polynomial regression model in building surrogate elements can largely cut down the simulation time without sacrifice in accuracy.

Modeling Cable and Guide Channel Interaction in a High-Strength Cable-Driven Continuum Manipulator

PubMed Central

Moses, Matthew S.; Murphy, Ryan J.; Kutzer, Michael D. M.; Armand, Mehran

2016-01-01

This paper presents several mechanical models of a high-strength cable-driven dexterous manipulator designed for surgical procedures. A stiffness model is presented that distinguishes between contributions from the cables and the backbone. A physics-based model incorporating cable friction is developed and its predictions are compared with experimental data. The data show that under high tension and high curvature, the shape of the manipulator deviates significantly from a circular arc. However, simple parametric models can fit the shape with good accuracy. The motivating application for this study is to develop a model so that shape can be predicted using easily measured quantities such as tension, so that real-time navigation may be performed, especially in minimally-invasive surgical procedures, while reducing the need for hazardous imaging methods such as fluoroscopy. PMID:27818607

Modeling Cable and Guide Channel Interaction in a High-Strength Cable-Driven Continuum Manipulator.

PubMed

Moses, Matthew S; Murphy, Ryan J; Kutzer, Michael D M; Armand, Mehran

2015-12-01

This paper presents several mechanical models of a high-strength cable-driven dexterous manipulator designed for surgical procedures. A stiffness model is presented that distinguishes between contributions from the cables and the backbone. A physics-based model incorporating cable friction is developed and its predictions are compared with experimental data. The data show that under high tension and high curvature, the shape of the manipulator deviates significantly from a circular arc. However, simple parametric models can fit the shape with good accuracy. The motivating application for this study is to develop a model so that shape can be predicted using easily measured quantities such as tension, so that real-time navigation may be performed, especially in minimally-invasive surgical procedures, while reducing the need for hazardous imaging methods such as fluoroscopy.

A Data-Driven Approach to Interactive Visualization of Power Grids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhu, Jun

Driven by emerging industry standards, electric utilities and grid coordination organizations are eager to seek advanced tools to assist grid operators to perform mission-critical tasks and enable them to make quick and accurate decisions. The emerging field of visual analytics holds tremendous promise for improving the business practices in today’s electric power industry. The conducted investigation, however, has revealed that the existing commercial power grid visualization tools heavily rely on human designers, hindering user’s ability to discover. Additionally, for a large grid, it is very labor-intensive and costly to build and maintain the pre-designed visual displays. This project proposes amore » data-driven approach to overcome the common challenges. The proposed approach relies on developing powerful data manipulation algorithms to create visualizations based on the characteristics of empirically or mathematically derived data. The resulting visual presentations emphasize what the data is rather than how the data should be presented, thus fostering comprehension and discovery. Furthermore, the data-driven approach formulates visualizations on-the-fly. It does not require a visualization design stage, completely eliminating or significantly reducing the cost for building and maintaining visual displays. The research and development (R&D) conducted in this project is mainly divided into two phases. The first phase (Phase I & II) focuses on developing data driven techniques for visualization of power grid and its operation. Various data-driven visualization techniques were investigated, including pattern recognition for auto-generation of one-line diagrams, fuzzy model based rich data visualization for situational awareness, etc. The R&D conducted during the second phase (Phase IIB) focuses on enhancing the prototyped data driven visualization tool based on the gathered requirements and use cases. The goal is to evolve the prototyped tool developed during the first phase into a commercial grade product. We will use one of the identified application areas as an example to demonstrate how research results achieved in this project are successfully utilized to address an emerging industry need. In summary, the data-driven visualization approach developed in this project has proven to be promising for building the next-generation power grid visualization tools. Application of this approach has resulted in a state-of-the-art commercial tool currently being leveraged by more than 60 utility organizations in North America and Europe .« less

Indicators of ecosystem function identify alternate states in the sagebrush steppe.

PubMed

Kachergis, Emily; Rocca, Monique E; Fernandez-Gimenez, Maria E

2011-10-01

Models of ecosystem change that incorporate nonlinear dynamics and thresholds, such as state-and-transition models (STMs), are increasingly popular tools for land management decision-making. However, few models are based on systematic collection and documentation of ecological data, and of these, most rely solely on structural indicators (species composition) to identify states and transitions. As STMs are adopted as an assessment framework throughout the United States, finding effective and efficient ways to create data-driven models that integrate ecosystem function and structure is vital. This study aims to (1) evaluate the utility of functional indicators (indicators of rangeland health, IRH) as proxies for more difficult ecosystem function measurements and (2) create a data-driven STM for the sagebrush steppe of Colorado, USA, that incorporates both ecosystem structure and function. We sampled soils, plant communities, and IRH at 41 plots with similar clayey soils but different site histories to identify potential states and infer the effects of management practices and disturbances on transitions. We found that many IRH were correlated with quantitative measures of functional indicators, suggesting that the IRH can be used to approximate ecosystem function. In addition to a reference state that functions as expected for this soil type, we identified four biotically and functionally distinct potential states, consistent with the theoretical concept of alternate states. Three potential states were related to management practices (chemical and mechanical shrub treatments and seeding history) while one was related only to ecosystem processes (erosion). IRH and potential states were also related to environmental variation (slope, soil texture), suggesting that there are environmental factors within areas with similar soils that affect ecosystem dynamics and should be noted within STMs. Our approach generated an objective, data-driven model of ecosystem dynamics for rangeland management. Our findings suggest that the IRH approximate ecosystem processes and can distinguish between alternate states and communities and identify transitions when building data-driven STMs. Functional indicators are a simple, efficient way to create data-driven models that are consistent with alternate state theory. Managers can use them to improve current model-building methods and thus apply state-and-transition models more broadly for land management decision-making.

Activity-Centered Domain Characterization for Problem-Driven Scientific Visualization

PubMed Central

Marai, G. Elisabeta

2018-01-01

Although visualization design models exist in the literature in the form of higher-level methodological frameworks, these models do not present a clear methodological prescription for the domain characterization step. This work presents a framework and end-to-end model for requirements engineering in problem-driven visualization application design. The framework and model are based on the activity-centered design paradigm, which is an enhancement of human-centered design. The proposed activity-centered approach focuses on user tasks and activities, and allows an explicit link between the requirements engineering process with the abstraction stage—and its evaluation—of existing, higher-level visualization design models. In a departure from existing visualization design models, the resulting model: assigns value to a visualization based on user activities; ranks user tasks before the user data; partitions requirements in activity-related capabilities and nonfunctional characteristics and constraints; and explicitly incorporates the user workflows into the requirements process. A further merit of this model is its explicit integration of functional specifications, a concept this work adapts from the software engineering literature, into the visualization design nested model. A quantitative evaluation using two sets of interdisciplinary projects supports the merits of the activity-centered model. The result is a practical roadmap to the domain characterization step of visualization design for problem-driven data visualization. Following this domain characterization model can help remove a number of pitfalls that have been identified multiple times in the visualization design literature. PMID:28866550

Improving the modelling of irradiation-induced brain activation for in vivo PET verification of proton therapy.

PubMed

Bauer, Julia; Chen, Wenjing; Nischwitz, Sebastian; Liebl, Jakob; Rieken, Stefan; Welzel, Thomas; Debus, Juergen; Parodi, Katia

2018-04-24

A reliable Monte Carlo prediction of proton-induced brain tissue activation used for comparison to particle therapy positron-emission-tomography (PT-PET) measurements is crucial for in vivo treatment verification. Major limitations of current approaches to overcome include the CT-based patient model and the description of activity washout due to tissue perfusion. Two approaches were studied to improve the activity prediction for brain irradiation: (i) a refined patient model using tissue classification based on MR information and (ii) a PT-PET data-driven refinement of washout model parameters. Improvements of the activity predictions compared to post-treatment PT-PET measurements were assessed in terms of activity profile similarity for six patients treated with a single or two almost parallel fields delivered by active proton beam scanning. The refined patient model yields a generally higher similarity for most of the patients, except in highly pathological areas leading to tissue misclassification. Using washout model parameters deduced from clinical patient data could considerably improve the activity profile similarity for all patients. Current methods used to predict proton-induced brain tissue activation can be improved with MR-based tissue classification and data-driven washout parameters, thus providing a more reliable basis for PT-PET verification. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Machine Learning-based discovery of closures for reduced models of dynamical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Shaowu; Duraisamy, Karthik

2017-11-01

Despite the successful application of machine learning (ML) in fields such as image processing and speech recognition, only a few attempts has been made toward employing ML to represent the dynamics of complex physical systems. Previous attempts mostly focus on parameter calibration or data-driven augmentation of existing models. In this work we present a ML framework to discover closure terms in reduced models of dynamical systems and provide insights into potential problems associated with data-driven modeling. Based on exact closure models for linear system, we propose a general linear closure framework from viewpoint of optimization. The framework is based on trapezoidal approximation of convolution term. Hyperparameters that need to be determined include temporal length of memory effect, number of sampling points, and dimensions of hidden states. To circumvent the explicit specification of memory effect, a general framework inspired from neural networks is also proposed. We conduct both a priori and posteriori evaluations of the resulting model on a number of non-linear dynamical systems. This work was supported in part by AFOSR under the project ``LES Modeling of Non-local effects using Statistical Coarse-graining'' with Dr. Jean-Luc Cambier as the technical monitor.

Data-Driven Nonlinear Subspace Modeling for Prediction and Control of Molten Iron Quality Indices in Blast Furnace Ironmaking

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Ping; Song, Heda; Wang, Hong

Blast furnace (BF) in ironmaking is a nonlinear dynamic process with complicated physical-chemical reactions, where multi-phase and multi-field coupling and large time delay occur during its operation. In BF operation, the molten iron temperature (MIT) as well as Si, P and S contents of molten iron are the most essential molten iron quality (MIQ) indices, whose measurement, modeling and control have always been important issues in metallurgic engineering and automation field. This paper develops a novel data-driven nonlinear state space modeling for the prediction and control of multivariate MIQ indices by integrating hybrid modeling and control techniques. First, to improvemore » modeling efficiency, a data-driven hybrid method combining canonical correlation analysis and correlation analysis is proposed to identify the most influential controllable variables as the modeling inputs from multitudinous factors would affect the MIQ indices. Then, a Hammerstein model for the prediction of MIQ indices is established using the LS-SVM based nonlinear subspace identification method. Such a model is further simplified by using piecewise cubic Hermite interpolating polynomial method to fit the complex nonlinear kernel function. Compared to the original Hammerstein model, this simplified model can not only significantly reduce the computational complexity, but also has almost the same reliability and accuracy for a stable prediction of MIQ indices. Last, in order to verify the practicability of the developed model, it is applied in designing a genetic algorithm based nonlinear predictive controller for multivariate MIQ indices by directly taking the established model as a predictor. Industrial experiments show the advantages and effectiveness of the proposed approach.« less

Genetic Programming for Automatic Hydrological Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chadalawada, Jayashree; Babovic, Vladan

2017-04-01

One of the recent challenges for the hydrologic research community is the need for the development of coupled systems that involves the integration of hydrologic, atmospheric and socio-economic relationships. This poses a requirement for novel modelling frameworks that can accurately represent complex systems, given, the limited understanding of underlying processes, increasing volume of data and high levels of uncertainity. Each of the existing hydrological models vary in terms of conceptualization and process representation and is the best suited to capture the environmental dynamics of a particular hydrological system. Data driven approaches can be used in the integration of alternative process hypotheses in order to achieve a unified theory at catchment scale. The key steps in the implementation of integrated modelling framework that is influenced by prior understanding and data, include, choice of the technique for the induction of knowledge from data, identification of alternative structural hypotheses, definition of rules, constraints for meaningful, intelligent combination of model component hypotheses and definition of evaluation metrics. This study aims at defining a Genetic Programming based modelling framework that test different conceptual model constructs based on wide range of objective functions and evolves accurate and parsimonious models that capture dominant hydrological processes at catchment scale. In this paper, GP initializes the evolutionary process using the modelling decisions inspired from the Superflex framework [Fenicia et al., 2011] and automatically combines them into model structures that are scrutinized against observed data using statistical, hydrological and flow duration curve based performance metrics. The collaboration between data driven and physical, conceptual modelling paradigms improves the ability to model and manage hydrologic systems. Fenicia, F., D. Kavetski, and H. H. Savenije (2011), Elements of a flexible approach for conceptual hydrological modeling: 1. Motivation and theoretical development, Water Resources Research, 47(11).

A Novel Hybrid Data-Driven Model for Daily Land Surface Temperature Forecasting Using Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xike; Zhang, Qiuwen; Zhang, Gui; Nie, Zhiping; Gui, Zifan; Que, Huafei

2018-01-01

Daily land surface temperature (LST) forecasting is of great significance for application in climate-related, agricultural, eco-environmental, or industrial studies. Hybrid data-driven prediction models using Ensemble Empirical Mode Composition (EEMD) coupled with Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are useful for achieving these purposes because they can reduce the difficulty of modeling, require less history data, are easy to develop, and are less complex than physical models. In this article, a computationally simple, less data-intensive, fast and efficient novel hybrid data-driven model called the EEMD Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, namely EEMD-LSTM, is proposed to reduce the difficulty of modeling and to improve prediction accuracy. The daily LST data series from the Mapoling and Zhijiang stations in the Dongting Lake basin, central south China, from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2016 is used as a case study. The EEMD is firstly employed to decompose the original daily LST data series into many Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) and a single residue item. Then, the Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) is used to obtain the number of input data sample points for LSTM models. Next, the LSTM models are constructed to predict the decompositions. All the predicted results of the decompositions are aggregated as the final daily LST. Finally, the prediction performance of the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is assessed in terms of the Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Pearson Correlation Coefficient (CC) and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE). To validate the hybrid data-driven model, the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is compared with the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), LSTM and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) coupled with RNN, EMD-LSTM and EEMD-RNN models, and their comparison results demonstrate that the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model performs better than the other five models. The scatterplots of the predicted results of the six models versus the original daily LST data series show that the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is superior to the other five models. It is concluded that the proposed hybrid EEMD-LSTM model in this study is a suitable tool for temperature forecasting. PMID:29883381

A Novel Hybrid Data-Driven Model for Daily Land Surface Temperature Forecasting Using Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Based on Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition.

PubMed

Zhang, Xike; Zhang, Qiuwen; Zhang, Gui; Nie, Zhiping; Gui, Zifan; Que, Huafei

2018-05-21

Daily land surface temperature (LST) forecasting is of great significance for application in climate-related, agricultural, eco-environmental, or industrial studies. Hybrid data-driven prediction models using Ensemble Empirical Mode Composition (EEMD) coupled with Machine Learning (ML) algorithms are useful for achieving these purposes because they can reduce the difficulty of modeling, require less history data, are easy to develop, and are less complex than physical models. In this article, a computationally simple, less data-intensive, fast and efficient novel hybrid data-driven model called the EEMD Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network, namely EEMD-LSTM, is proposed to reduce the difficulty of modeling and to improve prediction accuracy. The daily LST data series from the Mapoling and Zhijaing stations in the Dongting Lake basin, central south China, from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2016 is used as a case study. The EEMD is firstly employed to decompose the original daily LST data series into many Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) and a single residue item. Then, the Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) is used to obtain the number of input data sample points for LSTM models. Next, the LSTM models are constructed to predict the decompositions. All the predicted results of the decompositions are aggregated as the final daily LST. Finally, the prediction performance of the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is assessed in terms of the Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Pearson Correlation Coefficient (CC) and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE). To validate the hybrid data-driven model, the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is compared with the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), LSTM and Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) coupled with RNN, EMD-LSTM and EEMD-RNN models, and their comparison results demonstrate that the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model performs better than the other five models. The scatterplots of the predicted results of the six models versus the original daily LST data series show that the hybrid EEMD-LSTM model is superior to the other five models. It is concluded that the proposed hybrid EEMD-LSTM model in this study is a suitable tool for temperature forecasting.

Consistent data-driven computational mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, D.; Chinesta, F.; Cueto, E.

2018-05-01

We present a novel method, within the realm of data-driven computational mechanics, to obtain reliable and thermodynamically sound simulation from experimental data. We thus avoid the need to fit any phenomenological model in the construction of the simulation model. This kind of techniques opens unprecedented possibilities in the framework of data-driven application systems and, particularly, in the paradigm of industry 4.0.

Information-driven trade and price-volume relationship in artificial stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xinghua; Liu, Xin; Liang, Xiaobei

2015-07-01

The positive relation between stock price changes and trading volume (price-volume relationship) as a stylized fact has attracted significant interest among finance researchers and investment practitioners. However, until now, consensus has not been reached regarding the causes of the relationship based on real market data because extracting valuable variables (such as information-driven trade volume) from real data is difficult. This lack of general consensus motivates us to develop a simple agent-based computational artificial stock market where extracting the necessary variables is easy. Based on this model and its artificial data, our tests have found that the aggressive trading style of informed agents can produce a price-volume relationship. Therefore, the information spreading process is not a necessary condition for producing price-volume relationship.

A Decision Fusion Framework for Treatment Recommendation Systems.

PubMed

Mei, Jing; Liu, Haifeng; Li, Xiang; Xie, Guotong; Yu, Yiqin

2015-01-01

Treatment recommendation is a nontrivial task--it requires not only domain knowledge from evidence-based medicine, but also data insights from descriptive, predictive and prescriptive analysis. A single treatment recommendation system is usually trained or modeled with a limited (size or quality) source. This paper proposes a decision fusion framework, combining both knowledge-driven and data-driven decision engines for treatment recommendation. End users (e.g. using the clinician workstation or mobile apps) could have a comprehensive view of various engines' opinions, as well as the final decision after fusion. For implementation, we leverage several well-known fusion algorithms, such as decision templates and meta classifiers (of logistic and SVM, etc.). Using an outcome-driven evaluation metric, we compare the fusion engine with base engines, and our experimental results show that decision fusion is a promising way towards a more valuable treatment recommendation.

Set-membership fault detection under noisy environment with application to the detection of abnormal aircraft control surface positions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Houda Thabet, Rihab; Combastel, Christophe; Raïssi, Tarek; Zolghadri, Ali

2015-09-01

The paper develops a set membership detection methodology which is applied to the detection of abnormal positions of aircraft control surfaces. Robust and early detection of such abnormal positions is an important issue for early system reconfiguration and overall optimisation of aircraft design. In order to improve fault sensitivity while ensuring a high level of robustness, the method combines a data-driven characterisation of noise and a model-driven approach based on interval prediction. The efficiency of the proposed methodology is illustrated through simulation results obtained based on data recorded in several flight scenarios of a highly representative aircraft benchmark.

Extreme learning machine for reduced order modeling of turbulent geophysical flows.

PubMed

San, Omer; Maulik, Romit

2018-04-01

We investigate the application of artificial neural networks to stabilize proper orthogonal decomposition-based reduced order models for quasistationary geophysical turbulent flows. An extreme learning machine concept is introduced for computing an eddy-viscosity closure dynamically to incorporate the effects of the truncated modes. We consider a four-gyre wind-driven ocean circulation problem as our prototype setting to assess the performance of the proposed data-driven approach. Our framework provides a significant reduction in computational time and effectively retains the dynamics of the full-order model during the forward simulation period beyond the training data set. Furthermore, we show that the method is robust for larger choices of time steps and can be used as an efficient and reliable tool for long time integration of general circulation models.

Extreme learning machine for reduced order modeling of turbulent geophysical flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

San, Omer; Maulik, Romit

2018-04-01

We investigate the application of artificial neural networks to stabilize proper orthogonal decomposition-based reduced order models for quasistationary geophysical turbulent flows. An extreme learning machine concept is introduced for computing an eddy-viscosity closure dynamically to incorporate the effects of the truncated modes. We consider a four-gyre wind-driven ocean circulation problem as our prototype setting to assess the performance of the proposed data-driven approach. Our framework provides a significant reduction in computational time and effectively retains the dynamics of the full-order model during the forward simulation period beyond the training data set. Furthermore, we show that the method is robust for larger choices of time steps and can be used as an efficient and reliable tool for long time integration of general circulation models.

Swash saturation: an assessment of available models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, Michael G.; Baldock, Tom E.; Aagaard, Troels

2018-06-01

An extensive previously published (Hughes et al. Mar Geol 355, 88-97, 2014) field data set representing the full range of micro-tidal beach states (reflective, intermediate and dissipative) is used to investigate swash saturation. Two models that predict the behavior of saturated swash are tested: one driven by standing waves and the other driven by bores. Despite being based on entirely different premises, they predict similar trends in the limiting (saturated) swash height with respect to dependency on frequency and beach gradient. For a given frequency and beach gradient, however, the bore-driven model predicts a larger saturated swash height by a factor 2.5. Both models broadly predict the general behavior of swash saturation evident in the data, but neither model is accurate in detail. While swash saturation in the short-wave frequency band is common on some beach types, it does not always occur across all beach types. Further work is required on wave reflection/breaking and the role of wave-wave and wave-swash interactions to determine limiting swash heights on natural beaches.

Coupled Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport/Weather Forecast and Research/Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model. Part II; Simulations of Tower-Based and Airborne CO2 Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eluszkiewicz, Janusz; Nehrkorn, Thomas; Wofsy, Steven C.; Matross, Daniel; Gerbig, Christoph; Lin, John C.; Freitas, Saulo; Longo, Marcos; Andrews, Arlyn E.; Peters, Wouter

2007-01-01

This paper evaluates simulations of atmospheric CO2 measured in 2004 at continental surface and airborne receptors, intended to test the capability to use data with high temporal and spatial resolution for analyses of carbon sources and sinks at regional and continental scales. The simulations were performed using the Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model driven by the Weather Forecast and Research (WRF) model, and linked to surface fluxes from the satellite-driven Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM). The simulations provide detailed representations of hourly CO2 tower data and reproduce the shapes of airborne vertical profiles with high fidelity. WRF meteorology gives superior model performance compared with standard meteorological products, and the impact of including WRF convective mass fluxes in the STILT trajectory calculations is significant in individual cases. Important biases in the simulation are associated with the nighttime CO2 build-up and subsequent morning transition to convective conditions, and with errors in the advected lateral boundary condition. Comparison of STILT simulations driven by the WRF model against those driven by the Brazilian variant of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS) shows that model-to-model differences are smaller than between an individual transport model and observations, pointing to systematic errors in the simulated transport. Future developments in the WRF model s data assimilation capabilities, basic research into the fundamental aspects of trajectory calculations, and intercomparison studies involving other transport models, are possible venues for reducing these errors. Overall, the STILT/WRF/VPRM offers a powerful tool for continental and regional scale carbon flux estimates.

Model-Based Approach to Predict Adherence to Protocol During Antiobesity Trials.

PubMed

Sharma, Vishnu D; Combes, François P; Vakilynejad, Majid; Lahu, Gezim; Lesko, Lawrence J; Trame, Mirjam N

2018-02-01

Development of antiobesity drugs is continuously challenged by high dropout rates during clinical trials. The objective was to develop a population pharmacodynamic model that describes the temporal changes in body weight, considering disease progression, lifestyle intervention, and drug effects. Markov modeling (MM) was applied for quantification and characterization of responder and nonresponder as key drivers of dropout rates, to ultimately support the clinical trial simulations and the outcome in terms of trial adherence. Subjects (n = 4591) from 6 Contrave ® trials were included in this analysis. An indirect-response model developed by van Wart et al was used as a starting point. Inclusion of drug effect was dose driven using a population dose- and time-dependent pharmacodynamic (DTPD) model. Additionally, a population-pharmacokinetic parameter- and data (PPPD)-driven model was developed using the final DTPD model structure and final parameter estimates from a previously developed population pharmacokinetic model based on available Contrave ® pharmacokinetic concentrations. Last, MM was developed to predict transition rate probabilities among responder, nonresponder, and dropout states driven by the pharmacodynamic effect resulting from the DTPD or PPPD model. Covariates included in the models and parameters were diabetes mellitus and race. The linked DTPD-MM and PPPD-MM was able to predict transition rates among responder, nonresponder, and dropout states well. The analysis concluded that body-weight change is an important factor influencing dropout rates, and the MM depicted that overall a DTPD model-driven approach provides a reasonable prediction of clinical trial outcome probabilities similar to a pharmacokinetic-driven approach. © 2017, The Authors. The Journal of Clinical Pharmacology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

Data-driven process decomposition and robust online distributed modelling for large-scale processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu, Zhang; Lijuan, Li; Lijuan, Yao; Shipin, Yang; Tao, Zou

2018-02-01

With the increasing attention of networked control, system decomposition and distributed models show significant importance in the implementation of model-based control strategy. In this paper, a data-driven system decomposition and online distributed subsystem modelling algorithm was proposed for large-scale chemical processes. The key controlled variables are first partitioned by affinity propagation clustering algorithm into several clusters. Each cluster can be regarded as a subsystem. Then the inputs of each subsystem are selected by offline canonical correlation analysis between all process variables and its controlled variables. Process decomposition is then realised after the screening of input and output variables. When the system decomposition is finished, the online subsystem modelling can be carried out by recursively block-wise renewing the samples. The proposed algorithm was applied in the Tennessee Eastman process and the validity was verified.

DATA-CONSTRAINED CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS IN A GLOBAL MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMICS MODEL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, M.; Manchester, W. B.; Van der Holst, B.

We present a first-principles-based coronal mass ejection (CME) model suitable for both scientific and operational purposes by combining a global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) solar wind model with a flux-rope-driven CME model. Realistic CME events are simulated self-consistently with high fidelity and forecasting capability by constraining initial flux rope parameters with observational data from GONG, SOHO /LASCO, and STEREO /COR. We automate this process so that minimum manual intervention is required in specifying the CME initial state. With the newly developed data-driven Eruptive Event Generator using Gibson–Low configuration, we present a method to derive Gibson–Low flux rope parameters through a handful ofmore » observational quantities so that the modeled CMEs can propagate with the desired CME speeds near the Sun. A test result with CMEs launched with different Carrington rotation magnetograms is shown. Our study shows a promising result for using the first-principles-based MHD global model as a forecasting tool, which is capable of predicting the CME direction of propagation, arrival time, and ICME magnetic field at 1 au (see the companion paper by Jin et al. 2016a).« less

A Cyber-ITS Framework for Massive Traffic Data Analysis Using Cyber Infrastructure

PubMed Central

Fontaine, Michael D.

2013-01-01

Traffic data is commonly collected from widely deployed sensors in urban areas. This brings up a new research topic, data-driven intelligent transportation systems (ITSs), which means to integrate heterogeneous traffic data from different kinds of sensors and apply it for ITS applications. This research, taking into consideration the significant increase in the amount of traffic data and the complexity of data analysis, focuses mainly on the challenge of solving data-intensive and computation-intensive problems. As a solution to the problems, this paper proposes a Cyber-ITS framework to perform data analysis on Cyber Infrastructure (CI), by nature parallel-computing hardware and software systems, in the context of ITS. The techniques of the framework include data representation, domain decomposition, resource allocation, and parallel processing. All these techniques are based on data-driven and application-oriented models and are organized as a component-and-workflow-based model in order to achieve technical interoperability and data reusability. A case study of the Cyber-ITS framework is presented later based on a traffic state estimation application that uses the fusion of massive Sydney Coordinated Adaptive Traffic System (SCATS) data and GPS data. The results prove that the Cyber-ITS-based implementation can achieve a high accuracy rate of traffic state estimation and provide a significant computational speedup for the data fusion by parallel computing. PMID:23766690

A Cyber-ITS framework for massive traffic data analysis using cyber infrastructure.

PubMed

Xia, Yingjie; Hu, Jia; Fontaine, Michael D

2013-01-01

Traffic data is commonly collected from widely deployed sensors in urban areas. This brings up a new research topic, data-driven intelligent transportation systems (ITSs), which means to integrate heterogeneous traffic data from different kinds of sensors and apply it for ITS applications. This research, taking into consideration the significant increase in the amount of traffic data and the complexity of data analysis, focuses mainly on the challenge of solving data-intensive and computation-intensive problems. As a solution to the problems, this paper proposes a Cyber-ITS framework to perform data analysis on Cyber Infrastructure (CI), by nature parallel-computing hardware and software systems, in the context of ITS. The techniques of the framework include data representation, domain decomposition, resource allocation, and parallel processing. All these techniques are based on data-driven and application-oriented models and are organized as a component-and-workflow-based model in order to achieve technical interoperability and data reusability. A case study of the Cyber-ITS framework is presented later based on a traffic state estimation application that uses the fusion of massive Sydney Coordinated Adaptive Traffic System (SCATS) data and GPS data. The results prove that the Cyber-ITS-based implementation can achieve a high accuracy rate of traffic state estimation and provide a significant computational speedup for the data fusion by parallel computing.

Function-driven discovery of disease genes in zebrafish using an integrated genomics big data resource.

PubMed

Shim, Hongseok; Kim, Ji Hyun; Kim, Chan Yeong; Hwang, Sohyun; Kim, Hyojin; Yang, Sunmo; Lee, Ji Eun; Lee, Insuk

2016-11-16

Whole exome sequencing (WES) accelerates disease gene discovery using rare genetic variants, but further statistical and functional evidence is required to avoid false-discovery. To complement variant-driven disease gene discovery, here we present function-driven disease gene discovery in zebrafish (Danio rerio), a promising human disease model owing to its high anatomical and genomic similarity to humans. To facilitate zebrafish-based function-driven disease gene discovery, we developed a genome-scale co-functional network of zebrafish genes, DanioNet (www.inetbio.org/danionet), which was constructed by Bayesian integration of genomics big data. Rigorous statistical assessment confirmed the high prediction capacity of DanioNet for a wide variety of human diseases. To demonstrate the feasibility of the function-driven disease gene discovery using DanioNet, we predicted genes for ciliopathies and performed experimental validation for eight candidate genes. We also validated the existence of heterozygous rare variants in the candidate genes of individuals with ciliopathies yet not in controls derived from the UK10K consortium, suggesting that these variants are potentially involved in enhancing the risk of ciliopathies. These results showed that an integrated genomics big data for a model animal of diseases can expand our opportunity for harnessing WES data in disease gene discovery. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Physics-driven Spatiotemporal Regularization for High-dimensional Predictive Modeling: A Novel Approach to Solve the Inverse ECG Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Bing; Yang, Hui

2016-12-01

This paper presents a novel physics-driven spatiotemporal regularization (STRE) method for high-dimensional predictive modeling in complex healthcare systems. This model not only captures the physics-based interrelationship between time-varying explanatory and response variables that are distributed in the space, but also addresses the spatial and temporal regularizations to improve the prediction performance. The STRE model is implemented to predict the time-varying distribution of electric potentials on the heart surface based on the electrocardiogram (ECG) data from the distributed sensor network placed on the body surface. The model performance is evaluated and validated in both a simulated two-sphere geometry and a realistic torso-heart geometry. Experimental results show that the STRE model significantly outperforms other regularization models that are widely used in current practice such as Tikhonov zero-order, Tikhonov first-order and L1 first-order regularization methods.

Individualized Prediction of Heat Stress in Firefighters: A Data-Driven Approach Using Classification and Regression Trees.

PubMed

Mani, Ashutosh; Rao, Marepalli; James, Kelley; Bhattacharya, Amit

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to explore data-driven models, based on decision trees, to develop practical and easy to use predictive models for early identification of firefighters who are likely to cross the threshold of hyperthermia during live-fire training. Predictive models were created for three consecutive live-fire training scenarios. The final predicted outcome was a categorical variable: will a firefighter cross the upper threshold of hyperthermia - Yes/No. Two tiers of models were built, one with and one without taking into account the outcome (whether a firefighter crossed hyperthermia or not) from the previous training scenario. First tier of models included age, baseline heart rate and core body temperature, body mass index, and duration of training scenario as predictors. The second tier of models included the outcome of the previous scenario in the prediction space, in addition to all the predictors from the first tier of models. Classification and regression trees were used independently for prediction. The response variable for the regression tree was the quantitative variable: core body temperature at the end of each scenario. The predicted quantitative variable from regression trees was compared to the upper threshold of hyperthermia (38°C) to predict whether a firefighter would enter hyperthermia. The performance of classification and regression tree models was satisfactory for the second (success rate = 79%) and third (success rate = 89%) training scenarios but not for the first (success rate = 43%). Data-driven models based on decision trees can be a useful tool for predicting physiological response without modeling the underlying physiological systems. Early prediction of heat stress coupled with proactive interventions, such as pre-cooling, can help reduce heat stress in firefighters.

Virtual Sensor Web Architecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bose, P.; Zimdars, A.; Hurlburt, N.; Doug, S.

2006-12-01

NASA envisions the development of smart sensor webs, intelligent and integrated observation network that harness distributed sensing assets, their associated continuous and complex data sets, and predictive observation processing mechanisms for timely, collaborative hazard mitigation and enhanced science productivity and reliability. This paper presents Virtual Sensor Web Infrastructure for Collaborative Science (VSICS) Architecture for sustained coordination of (numerical and distributed) model-based processing, closed-loop resource allocation, and observation planning. VSICS's key ideas include i) rich descriptions of sensors as services based on semantic markup languages like OWL and SensorML; ii) service-oriented workflow composition and repair for simple and ensemble models; event-driven workflow execution based on event-based and distributed workflow management mechanisms; and iii) development of autonomous model interaction management capabilities providing closed-loop control of collection resources driven by competing targeted observation needs. We present results from initial work on collaborative science processing involving distributed services (COSEC framework) that is being extended to create VSICS.

Data-driven inference of network connectivity for modeling the dynamics of neural codes in the insect antennal lobe

PubMed Central

Shlizerman, Eli; Riffell, Jeffrey A.; Kutz, J. Nathan

2014-01-01

The antennal lobe (AL), olfactory processing center in insects, is able to process stimuli into distinct neural activity patterns, called olfactory neural codes. To model their dynamics we perform multichannel recordings from the projection neurons in the AL driven by different odorants. We then derive a dynamic neuronal network from the electrophysiological data. The network consists of lateral-inhibitory neurons and excitatory neurons (modeled as firing-rate units), and is capable of producing unique olfactory neural codes for the tested odorants. To construct the network, we (1) design a projection, an odor space, for the neural recording from the AL, which discriminates between distinct odorants trajectories (2) characterize scent recognition, i.e., decision-making based on olfactory signals and (3) infer the wiring of the neural circuit, the connectome of the AL. We show that the constructed model is consistent with biological observations, such as contrast enhancement and robustness to noise. The study suggests a data-driven approach to answer a key biological question in identifying how lateral inhibitory neurons can be wired to excitatory neurons to permit robust activity patterns. PMID:25165442

Remaining useful life assessment of lithium-ion batteries in implantable medical devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Chao; Ye, Hui; Jain, Gaurav; Schmidt, Craig

2018-01-01

This paper presents a prognostic study on lithium-ion batteries in implantable medical devices, in which a hybrid data-driven/model-based method is employed for remaining useful life assessment. The method is developed on and evaluated against data from two sets of lithium-ion prismatic cells used in implantable applications exhibiting distinct fade performance: 1) eight cells from Medtronic, PLC whose rates of capacity fade appear to be stable and gradually decrease over a 10-year test duration; and 2) eight cells from Manufacturer X whose rates appear to be greater and show sharp increase after some period over a 1.8-year test duration. The hybrid method enables online prediction of remaining useful life for predictive maintenance/control. It consists of two modules: 1) a sparse Bayesian learning module (data-driven) for inferring capacity from charge-related features; and 2) a recursive Bayesian filtering module (model-based) for updating empirical capacity fade models and predicting remaining useful life. A generic particle filter is adopted to implement recursive Bayesian filtering for the cells from the first set, whose capacity fade behavior can be represented by a single fade model; a multiple model particle filter with fixed-lag smoothing is proposed for the cells from the second data set, whose capacity fade behavior switches between multiple fade models.

Improved Lower Mekong River Basin Hydrological Decision Making Using NASA Satellite-based Earth Observation Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolten, J. D.; Mohammed, I. N.; Srinivasan, R.; Lakshmi, V.

2017-12-01

Better understanding of the hydrological cycle of the Lower Mekong River Basin (LMRB) and addressing the value-added information of using remote sensing data on the spatial variability of soil moisture over the Mekong Basin is the objective of this work. In this work, we present the development and assessment of the LMRB (drainage area of 495,000 km2) Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The coupled model framework presented is part of SERVIR, a joint capacity building venture between NASA and the U.S. Agency for International Development, providing state-of-the-art, satellite-based earth monitoring, imaging and mapping data, geospatial information, predictive models, and science applications to improve environmental decision-making among multiple developing nations. The developed LMRB SWAT model enables the integration of satellite-based daily gridded precipitation, air temperature, digital elevation model, soil texture, and land cover and land use data to drive SWAT model simulations over the Lower Mekong River Basin. The LMRB SWAT model driven by remote sensing climate data was calibrated and verified with observed runoff data at the watershed outlet as well as at multiple sites along the main river course. Another LMRB SWAT model set driven by in-situ climate observations was also calibrated and verified to streamflow data. Simulated soil moisture estimates from the two models were then examined and compared to a downscaled Soil Moisture Active Passive Sensor (SMAP) 36 km radiometer products. Results from this work present a framework for improving SWAT performance by utilizing a downscaled SMAP soil moisture products used for model calibration and validation. Index Terms: 1622: Earth system modeling; 1631: Land/atmosphere interactions; 1800: Hydrology; 1836 Hydrological cycles and budgets; 1840 Hydrometeorology; 1855: Remote sensing; 1866: Soil moisture; 6334: Regional Planning

Data-driven Inference and Investigation of Thermosphere Dynamics and Variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehta, P. M.; Linares, R.

2017-12-01

This paper presents a methodology for data-driven inference and investigation of thermosphere dynamics and variations. The approach uses data-driven modal analysis to extract the most energetic modes of variations for neutral thermospheric species using proper orthogonal decomposition, where the time-independent modes or basis represent the dynamics and the time-depedent coefficients or amplitudes represent the model parameters. The data-driven modal analysis approach combined with sparse, discrete observations is used to infer amplitues for the dynamic modes and to calibrate the energy content of the system. In this work, two different data-types, namely the number density measurements from TIMED/GUVI and the mass density measurements from CHAMP/GRACE are simultaneously ingested for an accurate and self-consistent specification of the thermosphere. The assimilation process is achieved with a non-linear least squares solver and allows estimation/tuning of the model parameters or amplitudes rather than the driver. In this work, we use the Naval Research Lab's MSIS model to derive the most energetic modes for six different species, He, O, N2, O2, H, and N. We examine the dominant drivers of variations for helium in MSIS and observe that seasonal latitudinal variation accounts for about 80% of the dynamic energy with a strong preference of helium for the winter hemisphere. We also observe enhanced helium presence near the poles at GRACE altitudes during periods of low solar activity (Feb 2007) as previously deduced. We will also examine the storm-time response of helium derived from observations. The results are expected to be useful in tuning/calibration of the physics-based models.

Time-driven activity-based costing: A dynamic value assessment model in pediatric appendicitis.

PubMed

Yu, Yangyang R; Abbas, Paulette I; Smith, Carolyn M; Carberry, Kathleen E; Ren, Hui; Patel, Binita; Nuchtern, Jed G; Lopez, Monica E

2017-06-01

Healthcare reform policies are emphasizing value-based healthcare delivery. We hypothesize that time-driven activity-based costing (TDABC) can be used to appraise healthcare interventions in pediatric appendicitis. Triage-based standing delegation orders, surgical advanced practice providers, and a same-day discharge protocol were implemented to target deficiencies identified in our initial TDABC model. Post-intervention process maps for a hospital episode were created using electronic time stamp data for simple appendicitis cases during February to March 2016. Total personnel and consumable costs were determined using TDABC methodology. The post-intervention TDABC model featured 6 phases of care, 33 processes, and 19 personnel types. Our interventions reduced duration and costs in the emergency department (-41min, -$23) and pre-operative floor (-57min, -$18). While post-anesthesia care unit duration and costs increased (+224min, +$41), the same-day discharge protocol eliminated post-operative floor costs (-$306). Our model incorporating all three interventions reduced total direct costs by 11% ($2753.39 to $2447.68) and duration of hospitalization by 51% (1984min to 966min). Time-driven activity-based costing can dynamically model changes in our healthcare delivery as a result of process improvement interventions. It is an effective tool to continuously assess the impact of these interventions on the value of appendicitis care. II, Type of study: Economic Analysis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prospects of second generation artificial intelligence tools in calibration of chemical sensors.

PubMed

Braibanti, Antonio; Rao, Rupenaguntla Sambasiva; Ramam, Veluri Anantha; Rao, Gollapalli Nageswara; Rao, Vaddadi Venkata Panakala

2005-05-01

Multivariate data driven calibration models with neural networks (NNs) are developed for binary (Cu++ and Ca++) and quaternary (K+, Ca++, NO3- and Cl-) ion-selective electrode (ISE) data. The response profiles of ISEs with concentrations are non-linear and sub-Nernstian. This task represents function approximation of multi-variate, multi-response, correlated, non-linear data with unknown noise structure i.e. multi-component calibration/prediction in chemometric parlance. Radial distribution function (RBF) and Fuzzy-ARTMAP-NN models implemented in the software packages, TRAJAN and Professional II, are employed for the calibration. The optimum NN models reported are based on residuals in concentration space. Being a data driven information technology, NN does not require a model, prior- or posterior- distribution of data or noise structure. Missing information, spikes or newer trends in different concentration ranges can be modeled through novelty detection. Two simulated data sets generated from mathematical functions are modeled as a function of number of data points and network parameters like number of neurons and nearest neighbors. The success of RBF and Fuzzy-ARTMAP-NNs to develop adequate calibration models for experimental data and function approximation models for more complex simulated data sets ensures AI2 (artificial intelligence, 2nd generation) as a promising technology in quantitation.

Knowledge-guided golf course detection using a convolutional neural network fine-tuned on temporally augmented data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jingbo; Wang, Chengyi; Yue, Anzhi; Chen, Jiansheng; He, Dongxu; Zhang, Xiuyan

2017-10-01

The tremendous success of deep learning models such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs) in computer vision provides a method for similar problems in the field of remote sensing. Although research on repurposing pretrained CNN to remote sensing tasks is emerging, the scarcity of labeled samples and the complexity of remote sensing imagery still pose challenges. We developed a knowledge-guided golf course detection approach using a CNN fine-tuned on temporally augmented data. The proposed approach is a combination of knowledge-driven region proposal, data-driven detection based on CNN, and knowledge-driven postprocessing. To confront data complexity, knowledge-derived cooccurrence, composition, and area-based rules are applied sequentially to propose candidate golf regions. To confront sample scarcity, we employed data augmentation in the temporal domain, which extracts samples from multitemporal images. The augmented samples were then used to fine-tune a pretrained CNN for golf detection. Finally, commission error was further suppressed by postprocessing. Experiments conducted on GF-1 imagery prove the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Dynamics of bloggers’ communities: Bipartite networks from empirical data and agent-based modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitrović, Marija; Tadić, Bosiljka

2012-11-01

We present an analysis of the empirical data and the agent-based modeling of the emotional behavior of users on the Web portals where the user interaction is mediated by posted comments, like Blogs and Diggs. We consider the dataset of discussion-driven popular Diggs, in which all comments are screened by machine-learning emotion detection in the text, to determine positive and negative valence (attractiveness and aversiveness) of each comment. By mapping the data onto a suitable bipartite network, we perform an analysis of the network topology and the related time-series of the emotional comments. The agent-based model is then introduced to simulate the dynamics and to capture the emergence of the emotional behaviors and communities. The agents are linked to posts on a bipartite network, whose structure evolves through their actions on the posts. The emotional states (arousal and valence) of each agent fluctuate in time, subject to the current contents of the posts to which the agent is exposed. By an agent’s action on a post its current emotions are transferred to the post. The model rules and the key parameters are inferred from the considered empirical data to ensure their realistic values and mutual consistency. The model assumes that the emotional arousal over posts drives the agent’s action. The simulations are preformed for the case of constant flux of agents and the results are analyzed in full analogy with the empirical data. The main conclusions are that the emotion-driven dynamics leads to long-range temporal correlations and emergent networks with community structure, that are comparable with the ones in the empirical system of popular posts. In view of pure emotion-driven agents actions, this type of comparisons provide a quantitative measure for the role of emotions in the dynamics on real blogs. Furthermore, the model reveals the underlying mechanisms which relate the post popularity with the emotion dynamics and the prevalence of negative emotions (critique). We also demonstrate how the community structure is tuned by varying a relevant parameter in the model. All data used in these works are fully anonymized.

Incremental checking of Master Data Management model based on contextual graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamolle, Myriam; Menet, Ludovic; Le Duc, Chan

2015-10-01

The validation of models is a crucial step in distributed heterogeneous systems. In this paper, an incremental validation method is proposed in the scope of a Model Driven Engineering (MDE) approach, which is used to develop a Master Data Management (MDM) field represented by XML Schema models. The MDE approach presented in this paper is based on the definition of an abstraction layer using UML class diagrams. The validation method aims to minimise the model errors and to optimisethe process of model checking. Therefore, the notion of validation contexts is introduced allowing the verification of data model views. Description logics specify constraints that the models have to check. An experimentation of the approach is presented through an application developed in ArgoUML IDE.

Moving Beyond ERP Components: A Selective Review of Approaches to Integrate EEG and Behavior

PubMed Central

Bridwell, David A.; Cavanagh, James F.; Collins, Anne G. E.; Nunez, Michael D.; Srinivasan, Ramesh; Stober, Sebastian; Calhoun, Vince D.

2018-01-01

Relationships between neuroimaging measures and behavior provide important clues about brain function and cognition in healthy and clinical populations. While electroencephalography (EEG) provides a portable, low cost measure of brain dynamics, it has been somewhat underrepresented in the emerging field of model-based inference. We seek to address this gap in this article by highlighting the utility of linking EEG and behavior, with an emphasis on approaches for EEG analysis that move beyond focusing on peaks or “components” derived from averaging EEG responses across trials and subjects (generating the event-related potential, ERP). First, we review methods for deriving features from EEG in order to enhance the signal within single-trials. These methods include filtering based on user-defined features (i.e., frequency decomposition, time-frequency decomposition), filtering based on data-driven properties (i.e., blind source separation, BSS), and generating more abstract representations of data (e.g., using deep learning). We then review cognitive models which extract latent variables from experimental tasks, including the drift diffusion model (DDM) and reinforcement learning (RL) approaches. Next, we discuss ways to access associations among these measures, including statistical models, data-driven joint models and cognitive joint modeling using hierarchical Bayesian models (HBMs). We think that these methodological tools are likely to contribute to theoretical advancements, and will help inform our understandings of brain dynamics that contribute to moment-to-moment cognitive function. PMID:29632480

Bending of Euler-Bernoulli nanobeams based on the strain-driven and stress-driven nonlocal integral models: a numerical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oskouie, M. Faraji; Ansari, R.; Rouhi, H.

2018-04-01

Eringen's nonlocal elasticity theory is extensively employed for the analysis of nanostructures because it is able to capture nanoscale effects. Previous studies have revealed that using the differential form of the strain-driven version of this theory leads to paradoxical results in some cases, such as bending analysis of cantilevers, and recourse must be made to the integral version. In this article, a novel numerical approach is developed for the bending analysis of Euler-Bernoulli nanobeams in the context of strain- and stress-driven integral nonlocal models. This numerical approach is proposed for the direct solution to bypass the difficulties related to converting the integral governing equation into a differential equation. First, the governing equation is derived based on both strain-driven and stress-driven nonlocal models by means of the minimum total potential energy. Also, in each case, the governing equation is obtained in both strong and weak forms. To solve numerically the derived equations, matrix differential and integral operators are constructed based upon the finite difference technique and trapezoidal integration rule. It is shown that the proposed numerical approach can be efficiently applied to the strain-driven nonlocal model with the aim of resolving the mentioned paradoxes. Also, it is able to solve the problem based on the strain-driven model without inconsistencies of the application of this model that are reported in the literature.

Note: Model-based identification method of a cable-driven wearable device for arm rehabilitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Xiang; Chen, Weihai; Zhang, Jianbin; Wang, Jianhua

2015-09-01

Cable-driven exoskeletons have used active cables to actuate the system and are worn on subjects to provide motion assistance. However, this kind of wearable devices usually contains uncertain kinematic parameters. In this paper, a model-based identification method has been proposed for a cable-driven arm exoskeleton to estimate its uncertainties. The identification method is based on the linearized error model derived from the kinematics of the exoskeleton. Experiment has been conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed model-based method in practical application.

Integrating geo web services for a user driven exploratory analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moncrieff, Simon; Turdukulov, Ulanbek; Gulland, Elizabeth-Kate

2016-04-01

In data exploration, several online data sources may need to be dynamically aggregated or summarised over spatial region, time interval, or set of attributes. With respect to thematic data, web services are mainly used to present results leading to a supplier driven service model limiting the exploration of the data. In this paper we propose a user need driven service model based on geo web processing services. The aim of the framework is to provide a method for the scalable and interactive access to various geographic data sources on the web. The architecture combines a data query, processing technique and visualisation methodology to rapidly integrate and visually summarise properties of a dataset. We illustrate the environment on a health related use case that derives Age Standardised Rate - a dynamic index that needs integration of the existing interoperable web services of demographic data in conjunction with standalone non-spatial secure database servers used in health research. Although the example is specific to the health field, the architecture and the proposed approach are relevant and applicable to other fields that require integration and visualisation of geo datasets from various web services and thus, we believe is generic in its approach.

A manifold learning approach to data-driven computational materials and processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibañez, Ruben; Abisset-Chavanne, Emmanuelle; Aguado, Jose Vicente; Gonzalez, David; Cueto, Elias; Duval, Jean Louis; Chinesta, Francisco

2017-10-01

Standard simulation in classical mechanics is based on the use of two very different types of equations. The first one, of axiomatic character, is related to balance laws (momentum, mass, energy, …), whereas the second one consists of models that scientists have extracted from collected, natural or synthetic data. In this work we propose a new method, able to directly link data to computers in order to perform numerical simulations. These simulations will employ universal laws while minimizing the need of explicit, often phenomenological, models. They are based on manifold learning methodologies.

Epidemic modeling with discrete-space scheduled walkers: extensions and research opportunities

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background This exploratory paper outlines an epidemic simulator built on an agent-based, data-driven model of the spread of a disease within an urban environment. An intent of the model is to provide insight into how a disease may reach a tipping point, spreading to an epidemic of uncontrollable proportions. Methods As a complement to analytical methods, simulation is arguably an effective means of gaining a better understanding of system-level disease dynamics within a population and offers greater utility in its modeling capabilities. Our investigation is based on this conjecture, supported by data-driven models that are reasonable, realistic and practical, in an attempt to demonstrate their efficacy in studying system-wide epidemic phenomena. An agent-based model (ABM) offers considerable flexibility in extending the study of the phenomena before, during and after an outbreak or catastrophe. Results An agent-based model was developed based on a paradigm of a 'discrete-space scheduled walker' (DSSW), modeling a medium-sized North American City of 650,000 discrete agents, built upon a conceptual framework of statistical reasoning (law of large numbers, statistical mechanics) as well as a correct-by-construction bias. The model addresses where, who, when and what elements, corresponding to network topography and agent characteristics, behaviours, and interactions upon that topography. The DSSW-ABM has an interface and associated scripts that allow for a variety of what-if scenarios modeling disease spread throughout the population, and for data to be collected and displayed via a web browser. Conclusion This exploratory paper also presents several research opportunities for exploiting data sources of a non-obvious and disparate nature for the purposes of epidemic modeling. There is an increasing amount and variety of data that will continue to contribute to the accuracy of agent-based models and improve their utility in modeling disease spread. The model developed here is well suited to diseases where there is not a predisposition for contraction within the population. One of the advantages of agent-based modeling is the ability to set up a rare event and develop policy as to how one may mitigate damages arising from it. PMID:19922684

Epidemic modeling with discrete-space scheduled walkers: extensions and research opportunities.

PubMed

Borkowski, Maciej; Podaima, Blake W; McLeod, Robert D

2009-11-18

This exploratory paper outlines an epidemic simulator built on an agent-based, data-driven model of the spread of a disease within an urban environment. An intent of the model is to provide insight into how a disease may reach a tipping point, spreading to an epidemic of uncontrollable proportions. As a complement to analytical methods, simulation is arguably an effective means of gaining a better understanding of system-level disease dynamics within a population and offers greater utility in its modeling capabilities. Our investigation is based on this conjecture, supported by data-driven models that are reasonable, realistic and practical, in an attempt to demonstrate their efficacy in studying system-wide epidemic phenomena. An agent-based model (ABM) offers considerable flexibility in extending the study of the phenomena before, during and after an outbreak or catastrophe. An agent-based model was developed based on a paradigm of a 'discrete-space scheduled walker' (DSSW), modeling a medium-sized North American City of 650,000 discrete agents, built upon a conceptual framework of statistical reasoning (law of large numbers, statistical mechanics) as well as a correct-by-construction bias. The model addresses where, who, when and what elements, corresponding to network topography and agent characteristics, behaviours, and interactions upon that topography. The DSSW-ABM has an interface and associated scripts that allow for a variety of what-if scenarios modeling disease spread throughout the population, and for data to be collected and displayed via a web browser. This exploratory paper also presents several research opportunities for exploiting data sources of a non-obvious and disparate nature for the purposes of epidemic modeling. There is an increasing amount and variety of data that will continue to contribute to the accuracy of agent-based models and improve their utility in modeling disease spread. The model developed here is well suited to diseases where there is not a predisposition for contraction within the population. One of the advantages of agent-based modeling is the ability to set up a rare event and develop policy as to how one may mitigate damages arising from it.

Metadata-Driven SOA-Based Application for Facilitation of Real-Time Data Warehousing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pintar, Damir; Vranić, Mihaela; Skočir, Zoran

Service-oriented architecture (SOA) has already been widely recognized as an effective paradigm for achieving integration of diverse information systems. SOA-based applications can cross boundaries of platforms, operation systems and proprietary data standards, commonly through the usage of Web Services technology. On the other side, metadata is also commonly referred to as a potential integration tool given the fact that standardized metadata objects can provide useful information about specifics of unknown information systems with which one has interest in communicating with, using an approach commonly called "model-based integration". This paper presents the result of research regarding possible synergy between those two integration facilitators. This is accomplished with a vertical example of a metadata-driven SOA-based business process that provides ETL (Extraction, Transformation and Loading) and metadata services to a data warehousing system in need of a real-time ETL support.

Data-Driven Model Reduction and Transfer Operator Approximation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klus, Stefan; Nüske, Feliks; Koltai, Péter; Wu, Hao; Kevrekidis, Ioannis; Schütte, Christof; Noé, Frank

2018-06-01

In this review paper, we will present different data-driven dimension reduction techniques for dynamical systems that are based on transfer operator theory as well as methods to approximate transfer operators and their eigenvalues, eigenfunctions, and eigenmodes. The goal is to point out similarities and differences between methods developed independently by the dynamical systems, fluid dynamics, and molecular dynamics communities such as time-lagged independent component analysis, dynamic mode decomposition, and their respective generalizations. As a result, extensions and best practices developed for one particular method can be carried over to other related methods.

Data driven propulsion system weight prediction model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerth, Richard J.

1994-10-01

The objective of the research was to develop a method to predict the weight of paper engines, i.e., engines that are in the early stages of development. The impetus for the project was the Single Stage To Orbit (SSTO) project, where engineers need to evaluate alternative engine designs. Since the SSTO is a performance driven project the performance models for alternative designs were well understood. The next tradeoff is weight. Since it is known that engine weight varies with thrust levels, a model is required that would allow discrimination between engines that produce the same thrust. Above all, the model had to be rooted in data with assumptions that could be justified based on the data. The general approach was to collect data on as many existing engines as possible and build a statistical model of the engines weight as a function of various component performance parameters. This was considered a reasonable level to begin the project because the data would be readily available, and it would be at the level of most paper engines, prior to detailed component design.

[Analysis of cost and efficiency of a medical nursing unit using time-driven activity-based costing].

PubMed

Lim, Ji Young; Kim, Mi Ja; Park, Chang Gi

2011-08-01

Time-driven activity-based costing was applied to analyze the nursing activity cost and efficiency of a medical unit. Data were collected at a medical unit of a general hospital. Nursing activities were measured using a nursing activities inventory and classified as 6 domains using Easley-Storfjell Instrument. Descriptive statistics were used to identify general characteristics of the unit, nursing activities and activity time, and stochastic frontier model was adopted to estimate true activity time. The average efficiency of the medical unit using theoretical resource capacity was 77%, however the efficiency using practical resource capacity was 96%. According to these results, the portion of non-added value time was estimated 23% and 4% each. The sums of total nursing activity costs were estimated 109,860,977 won in traditional activity-based costing and 84,427,126 won in time-driven activity-based costing. The difference in the two cost calculating methods was 25,433,851 won. These results indicate that the time-driven activity-based costing provides useful and more realistic information about the efficiency of unit operation compared to traditional activity-based costing. So time-driven activity-based costing is recommended as a performance evaluation framework for nursing departments based on cost management.

On Mixed Data and Event Driven Design for Adaptive-Critic-Based Nonlinear $H_{\\infty}$ Control.

PubMed

Wang, Ding; Mu, Chaoxu; Liu, Derong; Ma, Hongwen

2018-04-01

In this paper, based on the adaptive critic learning technique, the control for a class of unknown nonlinear dynamic systems is investigated by adopting a mixed data and event driven design approach. The nonlinear control problem is formulated as a two-player zero-sum differential game and the adaptive critic method is employed to cope with the data-based optimization. The novelty lies in that the data driven learning identifier is combined with the event driven design formulation, in order to develop the adaptive critic controller, thereby accomplishing the nonlinear control. The event driven optimal control law and the time driven worst case disturbance law are approximated by constructing and tuning a critic neural network. Applying the event driven feedback control, the closed-loop system is built with stability analysis. Simulation studies are conducted to verify the theoretical results and illustrate the control performance. It is significant to observe that the present research provides a new avenue of integrating data-based control and event-triggering mechanism into establishing advanced adaptive critic systems.

A Web-Based Data-Querying Tool Based on Ontology-Driven Methodology and Flowchart-Based Model

PubMed Central

Ping, Xiao-Ou; Chung, Yufang; Liang, Ja-Der; Yang, Pei-Ming; Huang, Guan-Tarn; Lai, Feipei

2013-01-01

Background Because of the increased adoption rate of electronic medical record (EMR) systems, more health care records have been increasingly accumulating in clinical data repositories. Therefore, querying the data stored in these repositories is crucial for retrieving the knowledge from such large volumes of clinical data. Objective The aim of this study is to develop a Web-based approach for enriching the capabilities of the data-querying system along the three following considerations: (1) the interface design used for query formulation, (2) the representation of query results, and (3) the models used for formulating query criteria. Methods The Guideline Interchange Format version 3.5 (GLIF3.5), an ontology-driven clinical guideline representation language, was used for formulating the query tasks based on the GLIF3.5 flowchart in the Protégé environment. The flowchart-based data-querying model (FBDQM) query execution engine was developed and implemented for executing queries and presenting the results through a visual and graphical interface. To examine a broad variety of patient data, the clinical data generator was implemented to automatically generate the clinical data in the repository, and the generated data, thereby, were employed to evaluate the system. The accuracy and time performance of the system for three medical query tasks relevant to liver cancer were evaluated based on the clinical data generator in the experiments with varying numbers of patients. Results In this study, a prototype system was developed to test the feasibility of applying a methodology for building a query execution engine using FBDQMs by formulating query tasks using the existing GLIF. The FBDQM-based query execution engine was used to successfully retrieve the clinical data based on the query tasks formatted using the GLIF3.5 in the experiments with varying numbers of patients. The accuracy of the three queries (ie, “degree of liver damage,” “degree of liver damage when applying a mutually exclusive setting,” and “treatments for liver cancer”) was 100% for all four experiments (10 patients, 100 patients, 1000 patients, and 10,000 patients). Among the three measured query phases, (1) structured query language operations, (2) criteria verification, and (3) other, the first two had the longest execution time. Conclusions The ontology-driven FBDQM-based approach enriched the capabilities of the data-querying system. The adoption of the GLIF3.5 increased the potential for interoperability, shareability, and reusability of the query tasks. PMID:25600078

Utilizing Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2005) to Evaluate Entry Probe Mission Sites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justh, Hilary L.; Justus, C. G.

2008-01-01

Engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. Mars-GRAM s perturbation modeling capability is commonly used, in a Monte-Carlo mode, to perform high fidelity engineering end-to-end simulations for entry, descent, and landing (EDL)1. Traditional Mars-GRAM options for representing the mean atmosphere along entry corridors include: a) TES Mapping Years 1 and 2, with Mars-GRAM data coming from MGCM model results driven by observed TES dust optical depth; and b) TES Mapping Year 0, with user-controlled dust optical depth and Mars-GRAM data interpolated from MGCM model results driven by selected values of globally-uniform dust optical depth. From the surface to 80 km altitude, Mars-GRAM is based on NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM). Mars-GRAM and MGCM use surface topography from Mars Global Surveyor Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA), with altitudes referenced to the MOLA areoid, or constant potential surface. Mars-GRAM 2005 has been validated2 against Radio Science data, and both nadir and limb data from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES)

ClinData Express – A Metadata Driven Clinical Research Data Management System for Secondary Use of Clinical Data

PubMed Central

Li, Zuofeng; Wen, Jingran; Zhang, Xiaoyan; Wu, Chunxiao; Li, Zuogao; Liu, Lei

2012-01-01

Aim to ease the secondary use of clinical data in clinical research, we introduce a metadata driven web-based clinical data management system named ClinData Express. ClinData Express is made up of two parts: 1) m-designer, a standalone software for metadata definition; 2) a web based data warehouse system for data management. With ClinData Express, what the researchers need to do is to define the metadata and data model in the m-designer. The web interface for data collection and specific database for data storage will be automatically generated. The standards used in the system and the data export modular make sure of the data reuse. The system has been tested on seven disease-data collection in Chinese and one form from dbGap. The flexibility of system makes its great potential usage in clinical research. The system is available at http://code.google.com/p/clindataexpress. PMID:23304327

WebStart WEPS: Remote data access and model execution functionality added to WEPS

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) is a daily time step, process based wind erosion model developed by the United States Department of Agriculture - Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS). WEPS simulates climate and management driven changes to the surface/vegetation/soil state on a daily b...

User-Preference-Driven Model Predictive Control of Residential Building Loads and Battery Storage for Demand Response: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, Xin; Baker, Kyri A.; Christensen, Dane T.

This paper presents a user-preference-driven home energy management system (HEMS) for demand response (DR) with residential building loads and battery storage. The HEMS is based on a multi-objective model predictive control algorithm, where the objectives include energy cost, thermal comfort, and carbon emission. A multi-criterion decision making method originating from social science is used to quickly determine user preferences based on a brief survey and derive the weights of different objectives used in the optimization process. Besides the residential appliances used in the traditional DR programs, a home battery system is integrated into the HEMS to improve the flexibility andmore » reliability of the DR resources. Simulation studies have been performed on field data from a residential building stock data set. Appliance models and usage patterns were learned from the data to predict the DR resource availability. Results indicate the HEMS was able to provide a significant amount of load reduction with less than 20% prediction error in both heating and cooling cases.« less

User-Preference-Driven Model Predictive Control of Residential Building Loads and Battery Storage for Demand Response

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, Xin; Baker, Kyri A; Isley, Steven C

This paper presents a user-preference-driven home energy management system (HEMS) for demand response (DR) with residential building loads and battery storage. The HEMS is based on a multi-objective model predictive control algorithm, where the objectives include energy cost, thermal comfort, and carbon emission. A multi-criterion decision making method originating from social science is used to quickly determine user preferences based on a brief survey and derive the weights of different objectives used in the optimization process. Besides the residential appliances used in the traditional DR programs, a home battery system is integrated into the HEMS to improve the flexibility andmore » reliability of the DR resources. Simulation studies have been performed on field data from a residential building stock data set. Appliance models and usage patterns were learned from the data to predict the DR resource availability. Results indicate the HEMS was able to provide a significant amount of load reduction with less than 20% prediction error in both heating and cooling cases.« less

Data-Driven Sequence of Changes to Anatomical Brain Connectivity in Sporadic Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Oxtoby, Neil P; Garbarino, Sara; Firth, Nicholas C; Warren, Jason D; Schott, Jonathan M; Alexander, Daniel C

2017-01-01

Model-based investigations of transneuronal spreading mechanisms in neurodegenerative diseases relate the pattern of pathology severity to the brain's connectivity matrix, which reveals information about how pathology propagates through the connectivity network. Such network models typically use networks based on functional or structural connectivity in young and healthy individuals, and only end-stage patterns of pathology, thereby ignoring/excluding the effects of normal aging and disease progression. Here, we examine the sequence of changes in the elderly brain's anatomical connectivity over the course of a neurodegenerative disease. We do this in a data-driven manner that is not dependent upon clinical disease stage, by using event-based disease progression modeling. Using data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset, we sequence the progressive decline of anatomical connectivity, as quantified by graph-theory metrics, in the Alzheimer's disease brain. Ours is the first single model to contribute to understanding all three of the nature, the location, and the sequence of changes to anatomical connectivity in the human brain due to Alzheimer's disease. Our experimental results reveal new insights into Alzheimer's disease: that degeneration of anatomical connectivity in the brain may be a viable, even early, biomarker and should be considered when studying such neurodegenerative diseases.

Strategies for concurrent processing of complex algorithms in data driven architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stoughton, John W.; Mielke, Roland R.

1988-01-01

The purpose is to document research to develop strategies for concurrent processing of complex algorithms in data driven architectures. The problem domain consists of decision-free algorithms having large-grained, computationally complex primitive operations. Such are often found in signal processing and control applications. The anticipated multiprocessor environment is a data flow architecture containing between two and twenty computing elements. Each computing element is a processor having local program memory, and which communicates with a common global data memory. A new graph theoretic model called ATAMM which establishes rules for relating a decomposed algorithm to its execution in a data flow architecture is presented. The ATAMM model is used to determine strategies to achieve optimum time performance and to develop a system diagnostic software tool. In addition, preliminary work on a new multiprocessor operating system based on the ATAMM specifications is described.

A multi-source satellite data approach for modelling Lake Turkana water level: Calibration and validation using satellite altimetry data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Velpuri, N.M.; Senay, G.B.; Asante, K.O.

2012-01-01

Lake Turkana is one of the largest desert lakes in the world and is characterized by high degrees of interand intra-annual fluctuations. The hydrology and water balance of this lake have not been well understood due to its remote location and unavailability of reliable ground truth datasets. Managing surface water resources is a great challenge in areas where in-situ data are either limited or unavailable. In this study, multi-source satellite-driven data such as satellite-based rainfall estimates, modelled runoff, evapotranspiration, and a digital elevation dataset were used to model Lake Turkana water levels from 1998 to 2009. Due to the unavailability of reliable lake level data, an approach is presented to calibrate and validate the water balance model of Lake Turkana using a composite lake level product of TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, and ENVISAT satellite altimetry data. Model validation results showed that the satellitedriven water balance model can satisfactorily capture the patterns and seasonal variations of the Lake Turkana water level fluctuations with a Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.90 and a Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE) of 0.80 during the validation period (2004-2009). Model error estimates were within 10% of the natural variability of the lake. Our analysis indicated that fluctuations in Lake Turkana water levels are mainly driven by lake inflows and over-the-lake evaporation. Over-the-lake rainfall contributes only up to 30% of lake evaporative demand. During the modelling time period, Lake Turkana showed seasonal variations of 1-2m. The lake level fluctuated in the range up to 4m between the years 1998-2009. This study demonstrated the usefulness of satellite altimetry data to calibrate and validate the satellite-driven hydrological model for Lake Turkana without using any in-situ data. Furthermore, for Lake Turkana, we identified and outlined opportunities and challenges of using a calibrated satellite-driven water balance model for (i) quantitative assessment of the impact of basin developmental activities on lake levels and for (ii) forecasting lake level changes and their impact on fisheries. From this study, we suggest that globally available satellite altimetry data provide a unique opportunity for calibration and validation of hydrologic models in ungauged basins. ?? Author(s) 2012.

A Remote Sensing-Based Tool for Assessing Rainfall-Driven Hazards

PubMed Central

Wright, Daniel B.; Mantilla, Ricardo; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2018-01-01

RainyDay is a Python-based platform that couples rainfall remote sensing data with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) for modeling rainfall-driven hazards such as floods and landslides. SST effectively lengthens the extreme rainfall record through temporal resampling and spatial transposition of observed storms from the surrounding region to create many extreme rainfall scenarios. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are often used for hazard modeling but require long records to describe the distribution of rainfall depth and duration and do not provide information regarding rainfall space-time structure, limiting their usefulness to small scales. In contrast, RainyDay can be used for many hazard applications with 1-2 decades of data, and output rainfall scenarios incorporate detailed space-time structure from remote sensing. Thanks to global satellite coverage, RainyDay can be used in inaccessible areas and developing countries lacking ground measurements, though results are impacted by remote sensing errors. RainyDay can be useful for hazard modeling under nonstationary conditions. PMID:29657544

An evaluation of the NQF Quality Data Model for representing Electronic Health Record driven phenotyping algorithms.

PubMed

Thompson, William K; Rasmussen, Luke V; Pacheco, Jennifer A; Peissig, Peggy L; Denny, Joshua C; Kho, Abel N; Miller, Aaron; Pathak, Jyotishman

2012-01-01

The development of Electronic Health Record (EHR)-based phenotype selection algorithms is a non-trivial and highly iterative process involving domain experts and informaticians. To make it easier to port algorithms across institutions, it is desirable to represent them using an unambiguous formal specification language. For this purpose we evaluated the recently developed National Quality Forum (NQF) information model designed for EHR-based quality measures: the Quality Data Model (QDM). We selected 9 phenotyping algorithms that had been previously developed as part of the eMERGE consortium and translated them into QDM format. Our study concluded that the QDM contains several core elements that make it a promising format for EHR-driven phenotyping algorithms for clinical research. However, we also found areas in which the QDM could be usefully extended, such as representing information extracted from clinical text, and the ability to handle algorithms that do not consist of Boolean combinations of criteria.

A Remote Sensing-Based Tool for Assessing Rainfall-Driven Hazards.

PubMed

Wright, Daniel B; Mantilla, Ricardo; Peters-Lidard, Christa D

2017-04-01

RainyDay is a Python-based platform that couples rainfall remote sensing data with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) for modeling rainfall-driven hazards such as floods and landslides. SST effectively lengthens the extreme rainfall record through temporal resampling and spatial transposition of observed storms from the surrounding region to create many extreme rainfall scenarios. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are often used for hazard modeling but require long records to describe the distribution of rainfall depth and duration and do not provide information regarding rainfall space-time structure, limiting their usefulness to small scales. In contrast, RainyDay can be used for many hazard applications with 1-2 decades of data, and output rainfall scenarios incorporate detailed space-time structure from remote sensing. Thanks to global satellite coverage, RainyDay can be used in inaccessible areas and developing countries lacking ground measurements, though results are impacted by remote sensing errors. RainyDay can be useful for hazard modeling under nonstationary conditions.

A Remote Sensing-Based Tool for Assessing Rainfall-Driven Hazards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wright, Daniel B.; Mantilla, Ricardo; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2017-01-01

RainyDay is a Python-based platform that couples rainfall remote sensing data with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) for modeling rainfall-driven hazards such as floods and landslides. SST effectively lengthens the extreme rainfall record through temporal resampling and spatial transposition of observed storms from the surrounding region to create many extreme rainfall scenarios. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are often used for hazard modeling but require long records to describe the distribution of rainfall depth and duration and do not provide information regarding rainfall space-time structure, limiting their usefulness to small scales. In contrast, Rainy Day can be used for many hazard applications with 1-2 decades of data, and output rainfall scenarios incorporate detailed space-time structure from remote sensing. Thanks to global satellite coverage, Rainy Day can be used in inaccessible areas and developing countries lacking ground measurements, though results are impacted by remote sensing errors. Rainy Day can be useful for hazard modeling under nonstationary conditions.

Gray-Box Approach for Thermal Modelling of Buildings for Applications in District Heating and Cooling Networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saurav, Kumar; Chandan, Vikas

District-heating-and-cooling (DHC) systems are a proven energy solution that has been deployed for many years in a growing number of urban areas worldwide. They comprise a variety of technologies that seek to develop synergies between the production and supply of heat, cooling, domestic hot water and electricity. Although the benefits of DHC systems are significant and have been widely acclaimed, yet the full potential of modern DHC systems remains largely untapped. There are several opportunities for development of energy efficient DHC systems, which will enable the effective exploitation of alternative renewable resources, waste heat recovery, etc., in order to increasemore » the overall efficiency and facilitate the transition towards the next generation of DHC systems. This motivated the need for modelling these complex systems. Large-scale modelling of DHC-networks is challenging, as it has several components such as buildings, pipes, valves, heating source, etc., interacting with each other. In this paper, we focus on building modelling. In particular, we present a gray-box methodology for thermal modelling of buildings. Gray-box modelling is a hybrid of data driven and physics based models where, coefficients of the equations from physics based models are learned using data. This approach allows us to capture the dynamics of the buildings more effectively as compared to pure data driven approach. Additionally, this approach results in a simpler models as compared to pure physics based models. We first develop the individual components of the building such as temperature evolution, flow controller, etc. These individual models are then integrated in to the complete gray-box model for the building. The model is validated using data collected from one of the buildings at Lule{\\aa}, a city on the coast of northern Sweden.« less

Solar Energy Evolution and Diffusion Studies | Solar Research | NREL

Science.gov Websites

industry-wide studies that use data-driven and evidence-based methods to identify characteristics developed models of U.S. household PV adoption. The project also conducted two market pilots to test methods

A Novel Online Data-Driven Algorithm for Detecting UAV Navigation Sensor Faults.

PubMed

Sun, Rui; Cheng, Qi; Wang, Guanyu; Ochieng, Washington Yotto

2017-09-29

The use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) has increased significantly in recent years. On-board integrated navigation sensors are a key component of UAVs' flight control systems and are essential for flight safety. In order to ensure flight safety, timely and effective navigation sensor fault detection capability is required. In this paper, a novel data-driven Adaptive Neuron Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)-based approach is presented for the detection of on-board navigation sensor faults in UAVs. Contrary to the classic UAV sensor fault detection algorithms, based on predefined or modelled faults, the proposed algorithm combines an online data training mechanism with the ANFIS-based decision system. The main advantages of this algorithm are that it allows real-time model-free residual analysis from Kalman Filter (KF) estimates and the ANFIS to build a reliable fault detection system. In addition, it allows fast and accurate detection of faults, which makes it suitable for real-time applications. Experimental results have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed fault detection method in terms of accuracy and misdetection rate.

A data-driven prediction method for fast-slow systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groth, Andreas; Chekroun, Mickael; Kondrashov, Dmitri; Ghil, Michael

2016-04-01

In this work, we present a prediction method for processes that exhibit a mixture of variability on low and fast scales. The method relies on combining empirical model reduction (EMR) with singular spectrum analysis (SSA). EMR is a data-driven methodology for constructing stochastic low-dimensional models that account for nonlinearity and serial correlation in the estimated noise, while SSA provides a decomposition of the complex dynamics into low-order components that capture spatio-temporal behavior on different time scales. Our study focuses on the data-driven modeling of partial observations from dynamical systems that exhibit power spectra with broad peaks. The main result in this talk is that the combination of SSA pre-filtering with EMR modeling improves, under certain circumstances, the modeling and prediction skill of such a system, as compared to a standard EMR prediction based on raw data. Specifically, it is the separation into "fast" and "slow" temporal scales by the SSA pre-filtering that achieves the improvement. We show, in particular that the resulting EMR-SSA emulators help predict intermittent behavior such as rapid transitions between specific regions of the system's phase space. This capability of the EMR-SSA prediction will be demonstrated on two low-dimensional models: the Rössler system and a Lotka-Volterra model for interspecies competition. In either case, the chaotic dynamics is produced through a Shilnikov-type mechanism and we argue that the latter seems to be an important ingredient for the good prediction skills of EMR-SSA emulators. Shilnikov-type behavior has been shown to arise in various complex geophysical fluid models, such as baroclinic quasi-geostrophic flows in the mid-latitude atmosphere and wind-driven double-gyre ocean circulation models. This pervasiveness of the Shilnikow mechanism of fast-slow transition opens interesting perspectives for the extension of the proposed EMR-SSA approach to more realistic situations.

Evaluation and hydrological application of satellite-based precipitation datasets in driving hydrological models over the Huifa river basin in Northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Honglei; Li, Ying; Huang, Yanwei; Li, Yingchen; Hou, Cuicui; Shi, Xiaoliang

2018-07-01

Satellite-based precipitation estimates with high spatial and temporal resolution and large areal coverage have provided hydrologists a potential alternative source for hydrological applications since the last few years, especially for ungauged regions. This study evaluates five satellite-based precipitation datasets, namely, Fengyun, TRMM 3B42, TRMM 3B42RT, CMORPH_BLD and CMORPH_RAW, against gauge observations for streamflow simulation with a distributed hydrological model (SWAT) over the Huifa river basin, Northeast China. Results show that, by comparing the statistical indices (MA, M5P, STDE, ME, BIAS and CC) and inter-annual precipitation, it is demonstrated that Fengyun TRMM 3B42 and CMORPH_BLD show better agreement with gauge precipitation data than CMORPH_RAW and TRMM 3B42RT. When the SWAT model for each dataset calibrated and validated individually, satisfactory model performances (defined as: NS > 0.5) are achieved at daily scale for Fengyun, TRMM 3B42 and gauge-driven model, and very good performances (defined as: NS > 0.75) are achieved at monthly scale for Fengyun and gauge-driven model, respectively. The CMORPH_BLD forced daily simulations also yield higher values of NS and R2 than CMORPH_RAW and TRMM 3B42RT at daily and monthly step. From the uncertainty results, variations of P-factor values and frequency distribution curves of NS suggest that the simulation uncertainty increase when operating the Fengyun, 3B42RT, CMORPH_BLD and CMORPH_RAW-driven model with best fitted parameters for rain gauge SWAT model. The results also indicate that the influence of parameter uncertainty on model simulation results may be greater than the effect of input data accuracy. It is noted that uncertainty analysis is necessary to evaluate the hydrological applications of satellite-based precipitation datasets.

Data-driven discovery of new Dirac semimetal materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Qimin; Chen, Ru; Neaton, Jeffrey

In recent years, a significant amount of materials property data from high-throughput computations based on density functional theory (DFT) and the application of database technologies have enabled the rise of data-driven materials discovery. In this work, we initiate the extension of the data-driven materials discovery framework to the realm of topological semimetal materials and to accelerate the discovery of novel Dirac semimetals. We implement current available and develop new workflows to data-mine the Materials Project database for novel Dirac semimetals with desirable band structures and symmetry protected topological properties. This data-driven effort relies on the successful development of several automatic data generation and analysis tools, including a workflow for the automatic identification of topological invariants and pattern recognition techniques to find specific features in a massive number of computed band structures. Utilizing this approach, we successfully identified more than 15 novel Dirac point and Dirac nodal line systems that have not been theoretically predicted or experimentally identified. This work is supported by the Materials Project Predictive Modeling Center through the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Basic Energy Sciences, Materials Sciences and Engineering Division, under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

A 1D ion species model for an RF driven negative ion source

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, I.; Holmes, A. J. T.

2017-08-01

A one-dimensional model for an RF driven negative ion source has been developed based on an inductive discharge. The RF source differs from traditional filament and arc ion sources because there are no primary electrons present, and is simply composed of an antenna region (driver) and a main plasma discharge region. However the model does still make use of the classical plasma transport equations for particle energy and flow, which have previously worked well for modelling DC driven sources. The model has been developed primarily to model the Small Negative Ion Facility (SNIF) ion source at CCFE, but may be easily adapted to model other RF sources. Currently the model considers the hydrogen ion species, and provides a detailed description of the plasma parameters along the source axis, i.e. plasma temperature, density and potential, as well as current densities and species fluxes. The inputs to the model are currently the RF power, the magnetic filter field and the source gas pressure. Results from the model are presented and where possible compared to existing experimental data from SNIF, with varying RF power, source pressure.

Information-theoretic model selection for optimal prediction of stochastic dynamical systems from data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darmon, David

2018-03-01

In the absence of mechanistic or phenomenological models of real-world systems, data-driven models become necessary. The discovery of various embedding theorems in the 1980s and 1990s motivated a powerful set of tools for analyzing deterministic dynamical systems via delay-coordinate embeddings of observations of their component states. However, in many branches of science, the condition of operational determinism is not satisfied, and stochastic models must be brought to bear. For such stochastic models, the tool set developed for delay-coordinate embedding is no longer appropriate, and a new toolkit must be developed. We present an information-theoretic criterion, the negative log-predictive likelihood, for selecting the embedding dimension for a predictively optimal data-driven model of a stochastic dynamical system. We develop a nonparametric estimator for the negative log-predictive likelihood and compare its performance to a recently proposed criterion based on active information storage. Finally, we show how the output of the model selection procedure can be used to compare candidate predictors for a stochastic system to an information-theoretic lower bound.

An efficient soil water balance model based on hybrid numerical and statistical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Wei; Yang, Jinzhong; Zhu, Yan; Ye, Ming; Liu, Zhao; Wu, Jingwei

2018-04-01

Most soil water balance models only consider downward soil water movement driven by gravitational potential, and thus cannot simulate upward soil water movement driven by evapotranspiration especially in agricultural areas. In addition, the models cannot be used for simulating soil water movement in heterogeneous soils, and usually require many empirical parameters. To resolve these problems, this study derives a new one-dimensional water balance model for simulating both downward and upward soil water movement in heterogeneous unsaturated zones. The new model is based on a hybrid of numerical and statistical methods, and only requires four physical parameters. The model uses three governing equations to consider three terms that impact soil water movement, including the advective term driven by gravitational potential, the source/sink term driven by external forces (e.g., evapotranspiration), and the diffusive term driven by matric potential. The three governing equations are solved separately by using the hybrid numerical and statistical methods (e.g., linear regression method) that consider soil heterogeneity. The four soil hydraulic parameters required by the new models are as follows: saturated hydraulic conductivity, saturated water content, field capacity, and residual water content. The strength and weakness of the new model are evaluated by using two published studies, three hypothetical examples and a real-world application. The evaluation is performed by comparing the simulation results of the new model with corresponding results presented in the published studies, obtained using HYDRUS-1D and observation data. The evaluation indicates that the new model is accurate and efficient for simulating upward soil water flow in heterogeneous soils with complex boundary conditions. The new model is used for evaluating different drainage functions, and the square drainage function and the power drainage function are recommended. Computational efficiency of the new model makes it particularly suitable for large-scale simulation of soil water movement, because the new model can be used with coarse discretization in space and time.

A Learning Framework for Control-Oriented Modeling of Buildings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rubio-Herrero, Javier; Chandan, Vikas; Siegel, Charles M.

Buildings consume a significant amount of energy worldwide. Several building optimization and control use cases require models of energy consumption which are control oriented, have high predictive capability, imposes minimal data pre-processing requirements, and have the ability to be adapted continuously to account for changing conditions as new data becomes available. Data driven modeling techniques, that have been investigated so far, while promising in the context of buildings, have been unable to simultaneously satisfy all the requirements mentioned above. In this context, deep learning techniques such as Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) hold promise, empowered by advanced computational capabilities and bigmore » data opportunities. In this paper, we propose a deep learning based methodology for the development of control oriented models for building energy management and test in on data from a real building. Results show that the proposed methodology outperforms other data driven modeling techniques significantly. We perform a detailed analysis of the proposed methodology along dimensions such as topology, sensitivity, and downsampling. Lastly, we conclude by envisioning a building analytics suite empowered by the proposed deep framework, that can drive several use cases related to building energy management.« less

Fault Diagnosis in HVAC Chillers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Choi, Kihoon; Namuru, Setu M.; Azam, Mohammad S.; Luo, Jianhui; Pattipati, Krishna R.; Patterson-Hine, Ann

2005-01-01

Modern buildings are being equipped with increasingly sophisticated power and control systems with substantial capabilities for monitoring and controlling the amenities. Operational problems associated with heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems plague many commercial buildings, often the result of degraded equipment, failed sensors, improper installation, poor maintenance, and improperly implemented controls. Most existing HVAC fault-diagnostic schemes are based on analytical models and knowledge bases. These schemes are adequate for generic systems. However, real-world systems significantly differ from the generic ones and necessitate modifications of the models and/or customization of the standard knowledge bases, which can be labor intensive. Data-driven techniques for fault detection and isolation (FDI) have a close relationship with pattern recognition, wherein one seeks to categorize the input-output data into normal or faulty classes. Owing to the simplicity and adaptability, customization of a data-driven FDI approach does not require in-depth knowledge of the HVAC system. It enables the building system operators to improve energy efficiency and maintain the desired comfort level at a reduced cost. In this article, we consider a data-driven approach for FDI of chillers in HVAC systems. To diagnose the faults of interest in the chiller, we employ multiway dynamic principal component analysis (MPCA), multiway partial least squares (MPLS), and support vector machines (SVMs). The simulation of a chiller under various fault conditions is conducted using a standard chiller simulator from the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE). We validated our FDI scheme using experimental data obtained from different types of chiller faults.

Evaluating MODIS satellite versus terrestrial data driven productivity estimates in Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petritsch, R.; Boisvenue, C.; Pietsch, S. A.; Hasenauer, H.; Running, S. W.

2009-04-01

Sensors, such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite, are developed for monitoring global and/or regional ecosystem fluxes like net primary production (NPP). Although these systems should allow us to assess carbon sequestration issues, forest management impacts, etc., relatively little is known about the consistency and accuracy in the resulting satellite driven estimates versus production estimates driven from ground data. In this study we compare the following NPP estimation methods: (i) NPP estimates as derived from MODIS and available on the internet; (ii) estimates resulting from the off-line version of the MODIS algorithm; (iii) estimates using regional meteorological data within the offline algorithm; (iv) NPP estimates from a species specific biogeochemical ecosystem model adopted for Alpine conditions; and (v) NPP estimates calculated from individual tree measurements. Single tree measurements were available from 624 forested sites across Austria but only the data from 165 sample plots included all the necessary information for performing the comparison on plot level. To ensure independence of satellite-driven and ground-based predictions, only latitude and longitude for each site were used to obtain MODIS estimates. Along with the comparison of the different methods, we discuss problems like the differing dates of field campaigns (<1999) and acquisition of satellite images (2000-2005) or incompatible productivity definitions within the methods and come up with a framework for combining terrestrial and satellite data based productivity estimates. On average MODIS estimates agreed well with the output of the models self-initialization (spin-up) and biomass increment calculated from tree measurements is not significantly different from model results; however, correlation between satellite-derived versus terrestrial estimates are relatively poor. Considering the different scales as they are 9km² from MODIS and 1000m² from the sample plots together with the heterogeneous landscape may qualify the low correlation, particularly as the correlation increases when strongly fragmented sites are left out.

Response of data-driven artificial neural network-based TEC models to neutral wind for different locations, seasons, and solar activity levels from the Indian longitude sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sur, D.; Haldar, S.; Ray, S.; Paul, A.

2017-07-01

The perturbations imposed on transionospheric signals by the ionosphere are a major concern for navigation. The dynamic nature of the ionosphere in the low-latitude equatorial region and the Indian longitude sector has some specific characteristics such as sharp temporal and latitudinal variation of total electron content (TEC). TEC in the Indian longitude sector also undergoes seasonal variations. The large magnitude and sharp variation of TEC cause large and variable range errors for satellite-based navigation system such as Global Positioning System (GPS) throughout the day. For accurate navigation using satellite-based augmentation systems, proper prediction of TEC under certain geophysical conditions is necessary in the equatorial region. It has been reported in the literature that prediction accuracy of TEC has been improved using measured data-driven artificial neural network (ANN)-based vertical TEC (VTEC) models, compared to standard ionospheric models. A set of observations carried out in the Indian longitude sector have been reported in this paper in order to find the amount of improvement in performance accuracy of an ANN-based VTEC model after incorporation of neutral wind as model input. The variations of this improvement in prediction accuracy with respect to latitude, longitude, season, and solar activity have also been reported in this paper.

The importance of different frequency bands in predicting subcutaneous glucose concentration in type 1 diabetic patients.

PubMed

Lu, Yinghui; Gribok, Andrei V; Ward, W Kenneth; Reifman, Jaques

2010-08-01

We investigated the relative importance and predictive power of different frequency bands of subcutaneous glucose signals for the short-term (0-50 min) forecasting of glucose concentrations in type 1 diabetic patients with data-driven autoregressive (AR) models. The study data consisted of minute-by-minute glucose signals collected from nine deidentified patients over a five-day period using continuous glucose monitoring devices. AR models were developed using single and pairwise combinations of frequency bands of the glucose signal and compared with a reference model including all bands. The results suggest that: for open-loop applications, there is no need to explicitly represent exogenous inputs, such as meals and insulin intake, in AR models; models based on a single-frequency band, with periods between 60-120 min and 150-500 min, yield good predictive power (error <3 mg/dL) for prediction horizons of up to 25 min; models based on pairs of bands produce predictions that are indistinguishable from those of the reference model as long as the 60-120 min period band is included; and AR models can be developed on signals of short length (approximately 300 min), i.e., ignoring long circadian rhythms, without any detriment in prediction accuracy. Together, these findings provide insights into efficient development of more effective and parsimonious data-driven models for short-term prediction of glucose concentrations in diabetic patients.

Measuring Experiential Avoidance: A Preliminary Test of a Working Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayes, Steven C.; Strosahl, Kirk; Wilson, Kelly G.; Bissett, Richard T.; Pistorello, Jacqueline; Toarmino, Dosheen; Polusny, Melissa A.; Dykstra, Thane A.; Batten, Sonja V.; Bergan, John; Stewart, Sherry H.; Zvolensky, Michael J.; Eifert, Georg H.; Bond, Frank W.; Forsyth, John P.; Karekla, Maria; Mccurry, Susan M.

2004-01-01

The present study describes the development of a short, general measure of experiential avoidance, based on a specific theoretical approach to this process. A theoretically driven iterative exploratory analysis using structural equation modeling on data from a clinical sample yielded a single factor comprising 9 items. A fully confirmatory factor…

Density-driven vertical transport of saltwater through the freshwater lens on the island of Baltrum (Germany) following the 1962 storm flood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Post, Vincent E. A.; Houben, Georg J.

2017-08-01

Due to the growing vulnerability of low-lying coastal zones to flooding by seawater, there is a current need for studies of the impact of such inundations on fresh groundwater resources. The knowledge from the literature is biased towards tropical atoll environments, and only few studies specifically investigated the effect of density-driven downward flow, even though its importance is widely acknowledged. The present study is based on previously unpublished hydrochemical data collected on the island of Baltrum following a devastating storm in 1962, which uniquely show the impact of seawater inundation on a freshwater lens in a siliciclastic aquifer. The field data show that about 3 kg of Cl per m2 of inundated land area, or 18 cm of seawater, infiltrated, and that elevated salinities persisted at the measurement depths of 4 and 6 m for at least 4 years, and at least for 6 years at greater depths. Numerical models support the assertion that the shape of the measured salinographs, i.e. an initial sharp rise in the salt concentration with time, followed by a continually-slowing decrease, must be attributed to density-driven salt fingering. Models that did not consider density effects fail to simulate the observed patterns. Transient recharge, model dimension and lateral flow modify the details of the simulation results, but in all models density-driven vertical flow dominates the overall system behaviour. The diminishing importance of density-driven flow at greater depths, however, in combination with slow recharge-driven flow rates prolongs flushing times, and enhances the risk of brackish-water up-coning when pumping is resumed too soon.

Discovering the Deregulated Molecular Functions Involved in Malignant Transformation of Endometriosis to Endometriosis-Associated Ovarian Carcinoma Using a Data-Driven, Function-Based Analysis

PubMed Central

Chang, Chia-Ming; Yang, Yi-Ping; Chuang, Jen-Hua; Chuang, Chi-Mu; Lin, Tzu-Wei; Wang, Peng-Hui; Yu, Mu-Hsien

2017-01-01

The clinical characteristics of clear cell carcinoma (CCC) and endometrioid carcinoma EC) are concomitant with endometriosis (ES), which leads to the postulation of malignant transformation of ES to endometriosis-associated ovarian carcinoma (EAOC). Different deregulated functional areas were proposed accounting for the pathogenesis of EAOC transformation, and there is still a lack of a data-driven analysis with the accumulated experimental data in publicly-available databases to incorporate the deregulated functions involved in the malignant transformation of EOAC. We used the microarray gene expression datasets of ES, CCC and EC downloaded from the National Center for Biotechnology Information Gene Expression Omnibus (NCBI GEO) database. Then, we investigated the pathogenesis of EAOC by a data-driven, function-based analytic model with the quantified molecular functions defined by 1454 Gene Ontology (GO) term gene sets. This model converts the gene expression profiles to the functionome consisting of 1454 quantified GO functions, and then, the key functions involving the malignant transformation of EOAC can be extracted by a series of filters. Our results demonstrate that the deregulated oxidoreductase activity, metabolism, hormone activity, inflammatory response, innate immune response and cell-cell signaling play the key roles in the malignant transformation of EAOC. These results provide the evidence supporting the specific molecular pathways involved in the malignant transformation of EAOC. PMID:29113136

An Observation-Driven Agent-Based Modeling and Analysis Framework for C. elegans Embryogenesis.

PubMed

Wang, Zi; Ramsey, Benjamin J; Wang, Dali; Wong, Kwai; Li, Husheng; Wang, Eric; Bao, Zhirong

2016-01-01

With cutting-edge live microscopy and image analysis, biologists can now systematically track individual cells in complex tissues and quantify cellular behavior over extended time windows. Computational approaches that utilize the systematic and quantitative data are needed to understand how cells interact in vivo to give rise to the different cell types and 3D morphology of tissues. An agent-based, minimum descriptive modeling and analysis framework is presented in this paper to study C. elegans embryogenesis. The framework is designed to incorporate the large amounts of experimental observations on cellular behavior and reserve data structures/interfaces that allow regulatory mechanisms to be added as more insights are gained. Observed cellular behaviors are organized into lineage identity, timing and direction of cell division, and path of cell movement. The framework also includes global parameters such as the eggshell and a clock. Division and movement behaviors are driven by statistical models of the observations. Data structures/interfaces are reserved for gene list, cell-cell interaction, cell fate and landscape, and other global parameters until the descriptive model is replaced by a regulatory mechanism. This approach provides a framework to handle the ongoing experiments of single-cell analysis of complex tissues where mechanistic insights lag data collection and need to be validated on complex observations.

Lessons learned while integrating habitat, dispersal, disturbance, and life-history traits into species habitat models under climate change

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew P. Peters

2011-01-01

We present an approach to modeling potential climate-driven changes in habitat for tree and bird species in the eastern United States. First, we took an empirical-statistical modeling approach, using randomForest, with species abundance data from national inventories combined with soil, climate, and landscape variables, to build abundance-based habitat models for 134...

Density Driven Removal of Sediment from a Buoyant Muddy Plume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouhnia, M.; Strom, K.

2014-12-01

Experiments were conducted to study the effect of settling driven instabilities on sediment removal from hypopycnal plumes. Traditional approaches scale removal rates with particle settling velocity however, it has been suggested that the removal from buoyant suspensions happens at higher rates. The enhancement of removal is likely due to gravitational instabilities, such as fingering, at two-fluid interface. Previous studies have all sought to suppress flocculation, and no simple model exists to predict the removal rates under the effect of such instabilities. This study examines whether or not flocculation hampers instability formation and presents a simple removal rate model accounting for gravitational instabilities. A buoyant suspension of flocculated Kaolinite overlying a base of clear saltwater was investigated in a laboratory tank. Concentration was continuously measured in both layers with a pair of OBS sensors, and interface was monitored with digital cameras. Snapshots from the video were used to measure finger velocity. Samples of flocculated particles at the interface were extracted to retrieve floc size data using a floc camera. Flocculation did not stop creation of settling-driven fingers. A simple cylinder-based force balance model was capable of predicting finger velocity. Analogy of fingering process of fine grained suspensions to thermal plume formation and the concept of Grashof number enabled us to model finger spacing as a function of initial concentration. Finally, from geometry, the effective cross-sectional area was correlated to finger spacing. Reformulating the outward flux expression was done by substitution of finger velocity, rather than particle settling velocity, and finger area instead of total area. A box model along with the proposed outward flux was used to predict the SSC in buoyant layer. The model quantifies removal flux based on the initial SSC and is in good agreement with the experimental data.

Performance Analysis of a Ring Current Model Driven by Global MHD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falasca, A.; Keller, K. A.; Fok, M.; Hesse, M.; Gombosi, T.

2003-12-01

Effectively modeling the high-energy particles in Earth's inner magnetosphere has the potential to improve safety in both manned and unmanned spacecraft. One model of this environment is the Fok Ring Current Model. This model can utilize as inputs both solar wind data, and empirical ionospheric electric field and magnetic field models. Alternatively, we have a procedure which allows the model to be driven by outputs from the BATS-R-US global MHD model. By using in-situ satellite data we will compare the predictive capability of this model in its original stand-alone form, to that of the model when driven by the BATS-R-US Global Magnetosphere Model. As a basis for comparison we use the April 2002 and May 2003 storms where suitable LANL geosynchronous data are available.

A Data-Driven Preschool PD Model for Literacy and Oral Language Instruction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abbott, Mary; Atwater, Jane; Lee, Younwoo; Edwards, Liesl

2011-01-01

The purpose of this article is to describe the professional development (PD) model for preschool literacy and language instruction that took place in a 3-year, 2-tiered Early Reading First project in 9 Head Start and community-based school classrooms. In our tiered model, the Tier 1 level was classroom instruction and Tier 2 was intervention…

A Research-to-Practice View of an Early Literacy PD Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abbott, Mary

2011-01-01

The purpose of this research-to-practice article is to describe the literacy and oral language professional development (PD) model that took place in a 3-year Early Reading First project in 9 Head Start and community-based school classrooms. Through our data-driven PD model, we provided 55 hr of training workshops for all classroom teaching staff…

Intelligence rules of hysteresis in the feedforward trajectory control of piezoelectrically-driven nanostagers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bashash, Saeid; Jalili, Nader

2007-02-01

Piezoelectrically-driven nanostagers have limited performance in a variety of feedforward and feedback positioning applications because of their nonlinear hysteretic response to input voltage. The hysteresis phenomenon is well known for its complex and multi-path behavior. To realize the underlying physics of this phenomenon and to develop an efficient compensation strategy, the intelligence properties of hysteresis with the effects of non-local memories are discussed here. Through performing a set of experiments on a piezoelectrically-driven nanostager with a high resolution capacitive position sensor, it is shown that for the precise prediction of the hysteresis path, certain memory units are required to store the previous hysteresis trajectory data. Based on the experimental observations, a constitutive memory-based mathematical modeling framework is developed and trained for the precise prediction of the hysteresis path for arbitrarily assigned input profiles. Using the inverse hysteresis model, a feedforward control strategy is then developed and implemented on the nanostager to compensate for the ever-present nonlinearity. Experimental results demonstrate that the controller remarkably eliminates the nonlinear effect, if memory units are sufficiently chosen for the inverse model.

Modeling urban coastal flood severity from crowd-sourced flood reports using Poisson regression and Random Forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sadler, J. M.; Goodall, J. L.; Morsy, M. M.; Spencer, K.

2018-04-01

Sea level rise has already caused more frequent and severe coastal flooding and this trend will likely continue. Flood prediction is an essential part of a coastal city's capacity to adapt to and mitigate this growing problem. Complex coastal urban hydrological systems however, do not always lend themselves easily to physically-based flood prediction approaches. This paper presents a method for using a data-driven approach to estimate flood severity in an urban coastal setting using crowd-sourced data, a non-traditional but growing data source, along with environmental observation data. Two data-driven models, Poisson regression and Random Forest regression, are trained to predict the number of flood reports per storm event as a proxy for flood severity, given extensive environmental data (i.e., rainfall, tide, groundwater table level, and wind conditions) as input. The method is demonstrated using data from Norfolk, Virginia USA from September 2010 to October 2016. Quality-controlled, crowd-sourced street flooding reports ranging from 1 to 159 per storm event for 45 storm events are used to train and evaluate the models. Random Forest performed better than Poisson regression at predicting the number of flood reports and had a lower false negative rate. From the Random Forest model, total cumulative rainfall was by far the most dominant input variable in predicting flood severity, followed by low tide and lower low tide. These methods serve as a first step toward using data-driven methods for spatially and temporally detailed coastal urban flood prediction.

Modeling Dynamic Evolution of Online Friendship Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Lian-Ren; Yan, Qiang

2012-10-01

In this paper, we study the dynamic evolution of friendship network in SNS (Social Networking Site). Our analysis suggests that an individual joining a community depends not only on the number of friends he or she has within the community, but also on the friendship network generated by those friends. In addition, we propose a model which is based on two processes: first, connecting nearest neighbors; second, strength driven attachment mechanism. The model reflects two facts: first, in the social network it is a universal phenomenon that two nodes are connected when they have at least one common neighbor; second, new nodes connect more likely to nodes which have larger weights and interactions, a phenomenon called strength driven attachment (also called weight driven attachment). From the simulation results, we find that degree distribution P(k), strength distribution P(s), and degree-strength correlation are all consistent with empirical data.

Data to Decisions: Creating a Culture of Model-Driven Drug Discovery.

PubMed

Brown, Frank K; Kopti, Farida; Chang, Charlie Zhenyu; Johnson, Scott A; Glick, Meir; Waller, Chris L

2017-09-01

Merck & Co., Inc., Kenilworth, NJ, USA, is undergoing a transformation in the way that it prosecutes R&D programs. Through the adoption of a "model-driven" culture, enhanced R&D productivity is anticipated, both in the form of decreased attrition at each stage of the process and by providing a rational framework for understanding and learning from the data generated along the way. This new approach focuses on the concept of a "Design Cycle" that makes use of all the data possible, internally and externally, to drive decision-making. These data can take the form of bioactivity, 3D structures, genomics, pathway, PK/PD, safety data, etc. Synthesis of high-quality data into models utilizing both well-established and cutting-edge methods has been shown to yield high confidence predictions to prioritize decision-making and efficiently reposition resources within R&D. The goal is to design an adaptive research operating plan that uses both modeled data and experiments, rather than just testing, to drive project decision-making. To support this emerging culture, an ambitious information management (IT) program has been initiated to implement a harmonized platform to facilitate the construction of cross-domain workflows to enable data-driven decision-making and the construction and validation of predictive models. These goals are achieved through depositing model-ready data, agile persona-driven access to data, a unified cross-domain predictive model lifecycle management platform, and support for flexible scientist-developed workflows that simplify data manipulation and consume model services. The end-to-end nature of the platform, in turn, not only supports but also drives the culture change by enabling scientists to apply predictive sciences throughout their work and over the lifetime of a project. This shift in mindset for both scientists and IT was driven by an early impactful demonstration of the potential benefits of the platform, in which expert-level early discovery predictive models were made available from familiar desktop tools, such as ChemDraw. This was built using a workflow-driven service-oriented architecture (SOA) on top of the rigorous registration of all underlying model entities.

A high-speed, large-capacity, 'jukebox' optical disk system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ammon, G. J.; Calabria, J. A.; Thomas, D. T.

1985-01-01

Two optical disk 'jukebox' mass storage systems which provide access to any data in a store of 10 to the 13th bits (1250G bytes) within six seconds have been developed. The optical disk jukebox system is divided into two units, including a hardware/software controller and a disk drive. The controller provides flexibility and adaptability, through a ROM-based microcode-driven data processor and a ROM-based software-driven control processor. The cartridge storage module contains 125 optical disks housed in protective cartridges. Attention is given to a conceptual view of the disk drive unit, the NASA optical disk system, the NASA database management system configuration, the NASA optical disk system interface, and an open systems interconnect reference model.

Process-Structure Linkages Using a Data Science Approach: Application to Simulated Additive Manufacturing Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Popova, Evdokia; Rodgers, Theron M.; Gong, Xinyi

A novel data science workflow is developed and demonstrated to extract process-structure linkages (i.e., reduced-order model) for microstructure evolution problems when the final microstructure depends on (simulation or experimental) processing parameters. Our workflow consists of four main steps: data pre-processing, microstructure quantification, dimensionality reduction, and extraction/validation of process-structure linkages. These methods that can be employed within each step vary based on the type and amount of available data. In this paper, this data-driven workflow is applied to a set of synthetic additive manufacturing microstructures obtained using the Potts-kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) approach. Additive manufacturing techniques inherently produce complex microstructures thatmore » can vary significantly with processing conditions. Using the developed workflow, a low-dimensional data-driven model was established to correlate process parameters with the predicted final microstructure. In addition, the modular workflows developed and presented in this work facilitate easy dissemination and curation by the broader community.« less

Process-Structure Linkages Using a Data Science Approach: Application to Simulated Additive Manufacturing Data

DOE PAGES

Popova, Evdokia; Rodgers, Theron M.; Gong, Xinyi; ...

2017-03-13

A novel data science workflow is developed and demonstrated to extract process-structure linkages (i.e., reduced-order model) for microstructure evolution problems when the final microstructure depends on (simulation or experimental) processing parameters. Our workflow consists of four main steps: data pre-processing, microstructure quantification, dimensionality reduction, and extraction/validation of process-structure linkages. These methods that can be employed within each step vary based on the type and amount of available data. In this paper, this data-driven workflow is applied to a set of synthetic additive manufacturing microstructures obtained using the Potts-kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) approach. Additive manufacturing techniques inherently produce complex microstructures thatmore » can vary significantly with processing conditions. Using the developed workflow, a low-dimensional data-driven model was established to correlate process parameters with the predicted final microstructure. In addition, the modular workflows developed and presented in this work facilitate easy dissemination and curation by the broader community.« less

The influence of data-driven versus conceptually-driven processing on the development of PTSD-like symptoms.

PubMed

Kindt, Merel; van den Hout, Marcel; Arntz, Arnoud; Drost, Jolijn

2008-12-01

Ehlers and Clark [(2000). A cognitive model of posttraumatic stress disorder. Behaviour Research and Therapy, 38, 319-345] propose that a predominance of data-driven processing during the trauma predicts subsequent PTSD. We wondered whether, apart from data-driven encoding, sustained data-driven processing after the trauma is also crucial for the development of PTSD. Both hypotheses were tested in two analogue experiments. Experiment 1 demonstrated that relative to conceptually-driven processing (n=20), data-driven processing after the film (n=14), resulted in more intrusions. Experiment 2 demonstrated that relative to the neutral condition (n=24) and the data-driven encoding condition (n=24), conceptual encoding (n=25) reduced suppression of intrusions and a trend emerged for memory fragmentation. The difference between the two encoding styles was due to the beneficial effect of induced conceptual encoding and not to the detrimental effect of data-driven encoding. The data support the viability of the distinction between data-driven/conceptually-driven processing for the understanding of the development of PTSD.

Data-driven local-scale modeling of ionospheric responses to auroral forcing using incoherent scatter radar and ground-based imaging measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grubbs, G. A., II; Zettergren, M. D.; Samara, M.; Michell, R.; Hampton, D. L.; Lynch, K. A.; Varney, R. H.; Reimer, A.; Burleigh, M.

2017-12-01

The aurora encapsulates a wide range of spatial and temporal scale sizes, particularly during active events such as those that exist during substorm expansion. Of interest to the present work are ionospheric responses to magnetospheric forcing at relatively small scales (0.5-20 km), including formation of structured auroral arc current systems, ion frictional heating, upflow, and density cavity formation among other processes. Even for carefully arranged experiments, it is often difficult to fully assess physical details (time evolution, causality, unobservable parameters) associated with these types of responses, thus highlighting the general need for high-resolution modeling efforts to support the observations. In this work, we develop and test a local-scale model to describe effects of precipitating electrons and electric fields on the ionospheric plasma responses using available remote sensing data (e.g. from ISRs and filtered cameras). Our model is based on a 3D multi-fluid/electrostatic ionospheric model, GEMINI (Zettergren et al., 2015), coupled a two-stream electron transport code which produces auroral intensities, impact ionization, and thermal electron heating GLobal airglOW (GLOW; Solomon, 2017). GEMINI-GLOW thus describes both thermal and suprathermal effects on the ionosphere and is driven by boundary conditions consisting of topside ionospheric field-aligned currents and suprathermal electrons. These boundary conditions are constrained using time and space-dependent electric field and precipitation estimates from recent sounding rocket campaigns, ISINGLASS (02 March 2017) and GREECE (03 March 2014), derived from the Poker Flat incoherent scatter radar (PFISR) drifts and filtered EMCCD cameras respectively. Results from these data-driven case studies are compared to plasma parameter responses (i.e. density and temperature) independently estimated by PFISR and from the sounding rockets. These studies are intended as a first step towards a local-scale assimilative modeling approach where data-derived information will be fed back into the model to update the system state.

Data-Driven Haptic Modeling and Rendering of Viscoelastic and Frictional Responses of Deformable Objects.

PubMed

Yim, Sunghoon; Jeon, Seokhee; Choi, Seungmoon

2016-01-01

In this paper, we present an extended data-driven haptic rendering method capable of reproducing force responses during pushing and sliding interaction on a large surface area. The main part of the approach is a novel input variable set for the training of an interpolation model, which incorporates the position of a proxy - an imaginary contact point on the undeformed surface. This allows us to estimate friction in both sliding and sticking states in a unified framework. Estimating the proxy position is done in real-time based on simulation using a sliding yield surface - a surface defining a border between the sliding and sticking regions in the external force space. During modeling, the sliding yield surface is first identified via an automated palpation procedure. Then, through manual palpation on a target surface, input data and resultant force data are acquired. The data are used to build a radial basis interpolation model. During rendering, this input-output mapping interpolation model is used to estimate force responses in real-time in accordance with the interaction input. Physical performance evaluation demonstrates that our approach achieves reasonably high estimation accuracy. A user study also shows plausible perceptual realism under diverse and extensive exploration.

Particle drift model for Z-pinch-driven magneto-Rayleigh-Taylor instability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dan, Jia Kun; Xu, Qiang; Wang, Kun Lun; Ren, Xiao Dong; Huang, Xian Bin

2016-09-01

A theoretical model of Z-pinch driven magneto-Rayleigh-Taylor instability is proposed based on the particle drift point of view, which can explain the helical instability structure observed in premagnetized imploding liner experiments. It is demonstrated that all possible drift motions, including polarization drift, gradient drift, and curvature drift, which can lead to charge separations, each will attribute to an effective gravity acceleration. Theoretical predictions given by this model are dramatically different from those given by previous theories which have been readily recovered in the theory presented here as a limiting case. The theory shows qualitative agreement with available experimental data of the pitch angle and provides certain predictions to be verified.

Data-driven information retrieval in heterogeneous collections of transcriptomics data links SIM2s to malignant pleural mesothelioma.

PubMed

Caldas, José; Gehlenborg, Nils; Kettunen, Eeva; Faisal, Ali; Rönty, Mikko; Nicholson, Andrew G; Knuutila, Sakari; Brazma, Alvis; Kaski, Samuel

2012-01-15

Genome-wide measurement of transcript levels is an ubiquitous tool in biomedical research. As experimental data continues to be deposited in public databases, it is becoming important to develop search engines that enable the retrieval of relevant studies given a query study. While retrieval systems based on meta-data already exist, data-driven approaches that retrieve studies based on similarities in the expression data itself have a greater potential of uncovering novel biological insights. We propose an information retrieval method based on differential expression. Our method deals with arbitrary experimental designs and performs competitively with alternative approaches, while making the search results interpretable in terms of differential expression patterns. We show that our model yields meaningful connections between biological conditions from different studies. Finally, we validate a previously unknown connection between malignant pleural mesothelioma and SIM2s suggested by our method, via real-time polymerase chain reaction in an independent set of mesothelioma samples. Supplementary data and source code are available from http://www.ebi.ac.uk/fg/research/rex.

Intercomparisons of Prognostic, Diagnostic, and Inversion Modeling Approaches for Estimation of Net Ecosystem Exchange over the Pacific Northwest Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, D. P.; Jacobson, A. R.; Nemani, R. R.

2013-12-01

The recent development of large spatially-explicit datasets for multiple variables relevant to monitoring terrestrial carbon flux offers the opportunity to estimate the terrestrial land flux using several alternative, potentially complimentary, approaches. Here we developed and compared regional estimates of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) over the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S. using three approaches. In the prognostic modeling approach, the process-based Biome-BGC model was driven by distributed meteorological station data and was informed by Landsat-based coverages of forest stand age and disturbance regime. In the diagnostic modeling approach, the quasi-mechanistic CFLUX model estimated net ecosystem production (NEP) by upscaling eddy covariance flux tower observations. The model was driven by distributed climate data and MODIS FPAR (the fraction of incident PAR that is absorbed by the vegetation canopy). It was informed by coarse resolution (1 km) data about forest stand age. In both the prognostic and diagnostic modeling approaches, emissions estimates for biomass burning, harvested products, and river/stream evasion were added to model-based NEP to get NEE. The inversion model (CarbonTracker) relied on observations of atmospheric CO2 concentration to optimize prior surface carbon flux estimates. The Pacific Northwest is heterogeneous with respect to land cover and forest management, and repeated surveys of forest inventory plots support the presence of a strong regional carbon sink. The diagnostic model suggested a stronger carbon sink than the prognostic model, and a much larger sink that the inversion model. The introduction of Landsat data on disturbance history served to reduce uncertainty with respect to regional NEE in the diagnostic and prognostic modeling approaches. The FPAR data was particularly helpful in capturing the seasonality of the carbon flux using the diagnostic modeling approach. The inversion approach took advantage of a global network of CO2 observation stations, but had difficulty resolving regional fluxes such as that in the PNW given the still sparse nature of the CO2 measurement network.

Dynamic Emulation Modelling (DEMo) of large physically-based environmental models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galelli, S.; Castelletti, A.

2012-12-01

In environmental modelling large, spatially-distributed, physically-based models are widely adopted to describe the dynamics of physical, social and economic processes. Such an accurate process characterization comes, however, to a price: the computational requirements of these models are considerably high and prevent their use in any problem requiring hundreds or thousands of model runs to be satisfactory solved. Typical examples include optimal planning and management, data assimilation, inverse modelling and sensitivity analysis. An effective approach to overcome this limitation is to perform a top-down reduction of the physically-based model by identifying a simplified, computationally efficient emulator, constructed from and then used in place of the original model in highly resource-demanding tasks. The underlying idea is that not all the process details in the original model are equally important and relevant to the dynamics of the outputs of interest for the type of problem considered. Emulation modelling has been successfully applied in many environmental applications, however most of the literature considers non-dynamic emulators (e.g. metamodels, response surfaces and surrogate models), where the original dynamical model is reduced to a static map between input and the output of interest. In this study we focus on Dynamic Emulation Modelling (DEMo), a methodological approach that preserves the dynamic nature of the original physically-based model, with consequent advantages in a wide variety of problem areas. In particular, we propose a new data-driven DEMo approach that combines the many advantages of data-driven modelling in representing complex, non-linear relationships, but preserves the state-space representation typical of process-based models, which is both particularly effective in some applications (e.g. optimal management and data assimilation) and facilitates the ex-post physical interpretation of the emulator structure, thus enhancing the credibility of the model to stakeholders and decision-makers. Numerical results from the application of the approach to the reduction of 3D coupled hydrodynamic-ecological models in several real world case studies, including Marina Reservoir (Singapore) and Googong Reservoir (Australia), are illustrated.

Data-driven event-by-event respiratory motion correction using TOF PET list-mode centroid of distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Silin; Jin, Xiao; Chan, Chung; Jian, Yiqiang; Mulnix, Tim; Liu, Chi; E Carson, Richard

2017-06-01

Data-driven respiratory gating techniques were developed to correct for respiratory motion in PET studies, without the help of external motion tracking systems. Due to the greatly increased image noise in gated reconstructions, it is desirable to develop a data-driven event-by-event respiratory motion correction method. In this study, using the Centroid-of-distribution (COD) algorithm, we established a data-driven event-by-event respiratory motion correction technique using TOF PET list-mode data, and investigated its performance by comparing with an external system-based correction method. Ten human scans with the pancreatic β-cell tracer 18F-FP-(+)-DTBZ were employed. Data-driven respiratory motions in superior-inferior (SI) and anterior-posterior (AP) directions were first determined by computing the centroid of all radioactive events during each short time frame with further processing. The Anzai belt system was employed to record respiratory motion in all studies. COD traces in both SI and AP directions were first compared with Anzai traces by computing the Pearson correlation coefficients. Then, respiratory gated reconstructions based on either COD or Anzai traces were performed to evaluate their relative performance in capturing respiratory motion. Finally, based on correlations of displacements of organ locations in all directions and COD information, continuous 3D internal organ motion in SI and AP directions was calculated based on COD traces to guide event-by-event respiratory motion correction in the MOLAR reconstruction framework. Continuous respiratory correction results based on COD were compared with that based on Anzai, and without motion correction. Data-driven COD traces showed a good correlation with Anzai in both SI and AP directions for the majority of studies, with correlation coefficients ranging from 63% to 89%. Based on the determined respiratory displacements of pancreas between end-expiration and end-inspiration from gated reconstructions, there was no significant difference between COD-based and Anzai-based methods. Finally, data-driven COD-based event-by-event respiratory motion correction yielded comparable results to that based on Anzai respiratory traces, in terms of contrast recovery and reduced motion-induced blur. Data-driven event-by-event respiratory motion correction using COD showed significant image quality improvement compared with reconstructions with no motion correction, and gave comparable results to the Anzai-based method.

Data-driven event-by-event respiratory motion correction using TOF PET list-mode centroid of distribution.

PubMed

Ren, Silin; Jin, Xiao; Chan, Chung; Jian, Yiqiang; Mulnix, Tim; Liu, Chi; Carson, Richard E

2017-06-21

Data-driven respiratory gating techniques were developed to correct for respiratory motion in PET studies, without the help of external motion tracking systems. Due to the greatly increased image noise in gated reconstructions, it is desirable to develop a data-driven event-by-event respiratory motion correction method. In this study, using the Centroid-of-distribution (COD) algorithm, we established a data-driven event-by-event respiratory motion correction technique using TOF PET list-mode data, and investigated its performance by comparing with an external system-based correction method. Ten human scans with the pancreatic β-cell tracer 18 F-FP-(+)-DTBZ were employed. Data-driven respiratory motions in superior-inferior (SI) and anterior-posterior (AP) directions were first determined by computing the centroid of all radioactive events during each short time frame with further processing. The Anzai belt system was employed to record respiratory motion in all studies. COD traces in both SI and AP directions were first compared with Anzai traces by computing the Pearson correlation coefficients. Then, respiratory gated reconstructions based on either COD or Anzai traces were performed to evaluate their relative performance in capturing respiratory motion. Finally, based on correlations of displacements of organ locations in all directions and COD information, continuous 3D internal organ motion in SI and AP directions was calculated based on COD traces to guide event-by-event respiratory motion correction in the MOLAR reconstruction framework. Continuous respiratory correction results based on COD were compared with that based on Anzai, and without motion correction. Data-driven COD traces showed a good correlation with Anzai in both SI and AP directions for the majority of studies, with correlation coefficients ranging from 63% to 89%. Based on the determined respiratory displacements of pancreas between end-expiration and end-inspiration from gated reconstructions, there was no significant difference between COD-based and Anzai-based methods. Finally, data-driven COD-based event-by-event respiratory motion correction yielded comparable results to that based on Anzai respiratory traces, in terms of contrast recovery and reduced motion-induced blur. Data-driven event-by-event respiratory motion correction using COD showed significant image quality improvement compared with reconstructions with no motion correction, and gave comparable results to the Anzai-based method.

Modeling the Structure of Helical Assemblies with Experimental Constraints in Rosetta.

PubMed

André, Ingemar

2018-01-01

Determining high-resolution structures of proteins with helical symmetry can be challenging due to limitations in experimental data. In such instances, structure-based protein simulations driven by experimental data can provide a valuable approach for building models of helical assemblies. This chapter describes how the Rosetta macromolecular package can be used to model homomeric protein assemblies with helical symmetry in a range of modeling scenarios including energy refinement, symmetrical docking, comparative modeling, and de novo structure prediction. Data-guided structure modeling of helical assemblies with experimental information from electron density, X-ray fiber diffraction, solid-state NMR, and chemical cross-linking mass spectrometry is also described.

Big data to smart data in Alzheimer's disease: The brain health modeling initiative to foster actionable knowledge.

PubMed

Geerts, Hugo; Dacks, Penny A; Devanarayan, Viswanath; Haas, Magali; Khachaturian, Zaven S; Gordon, Mark Forrest; Maudsley, Stuart; Romero, Klaus; Stephenson, Diane

2016-09-01

Massive investment and technological advances in the collection of extensive and longitudinal information on thousands of Alzheimer patients results in large amounts of data. These "big-data" databases can potentially advance CNS research and drug development. However, although necessary, they are not sufficient, and we posit that they must be matched with analytical methods that go beyond retrospective data-driven associations with various clinical phenotypes. Although these empirically derived associations can generate novel and useful hypotheses, they need to be organically integrated in a quantitative understanding of the pathology that can be actionable for drug discovery and development. We argue that mechanism-based modeling and simulation approaches, where existing domain knowledge is formally integrated using complexity science and quantitative systems pharmacology can be combined with data-driven analytics to generate predictive actionable knowledge for drug discovery programs, target validation, and optimization of clinical development. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Towards Data-Driven Simulations of Wildfire Spread using Ensemble-based Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rochoux, M. C.; Bart, J.; Ricci, S. M.; Cuenot, B.; Trouvé, A.; Duchaine, F.; Morel, T.

2012-12-01

Real-time predictions of a propagating wildfire remain a challenging task because the problem involves both multi-physics and multi-scales. The propagation speed of wildfires, also called the rate of spread (ROS), is indeed determined by complex interactions between pyrolysis, combustion and flow dynamics, atmospheric dynamics occurring at vegetation, topographical and meteorological scales. Current operational fire spread models are mainly based on a semi-empirical parameterization of the ROS in terms of vegetation, topographical and meteorological properties. For the fire spread simulation to be predictive and compatible with operational applications, the uncertainty on the ROS model should be reduced. As recent progress made in remote sensing technology provides new ways to monitor the fire front position, a promising approach to overcome the difficulties found in wildfire spread simulations is to integrate fire modeling and fire sensing technologies using data assimilation (DA). For this purpose we have developed a prototype data-driven wildfire spread simulator in order to provide optimal estimates of poorly known model parameters [*]. The data-driven simulation capability is adapted for more realistic wildfire spread : it considers a regional-scale fire spread model that is informed by observations of the fire front location. An Ensemble Kalman Filter algorithm (EnKF) based on a parallel computing platform (OpenPALM) was implemented in order to perform a multi-parameter sequential estimation where wind magnitude and direction are in addition to vegetation properties (see attached figure). The EnKF algorithm shows its good ability to track a small-scale grassland fire experiment and ensures a good accounting for the sensitivity of the simulation outcomes to the control parameters. As a conclusion, it was shown that data assimilation is a promising approach to more accurately forecast time-varying wildfire spread conditions as new airborne-like observations of the fire front location get available. [*] Rochoux, M.C., Delmotte, B., Cuenot, B., Ricci, S., and Trouvé, A. (2012) "Regional-scale simulations of wildland fire spread informed by real-time flame front observations", Proc. Combust. Inst., 34, in press http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.proci.2012.06.090 EnKF-based tracking of small-scale grassland fire experiment, with estimation of wind and fuel parameters.

Electromagnetic Properties Analysis on Hybrid-driven System of Electromagnetic Motor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jingbo; Han, Bingyuan; Bei, Shaoyi

2018-01-01

The hybrid-driven system made of permanent-and electromagnets applied in the electromagnetic motor was analyzed, equivalent magnetic circuit was used to establish the mathematical models of hybrid-driven system, based on the models of hybrid-driven system, the air gap flux, air-gap magnetic flux density, electromagnetic force was proposed. Taking the air-gap magnetic flux density and electromagnetic force as main research object, the hybrid-driven system was researched. Electromagnetic properties of hybrid-driven system with different working current modes is studied preliminary. The results shown that analysis based on hybrid-driven system can improve the air-gap magnetic flux density and electromagnetic force more effectively and can also guarantee the output stability, the effectiveness and feasibility of the hybrid-driven system are verified, which proved theoretical basis for the design of hybrid-driven system.

Closed-form solutions in stress-driven two-phase integral elasticity for bending of functionally graded nano-beams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barretta, Raffaele; Fabbrocino, Francesco; Luciano, Raimondo; Sciarra, Francesco Marotti de

2018-03-01

Strain-driven and stress-driven integral elasticity models are formulated for the analysis of the structural behaviour of fuctionally graded nano-beams. An innovative stress-driven two-phases constitutive mixture defined by a convex combination of local and nonlocal phases is presented. The analysis reveals that the Eringen strain-driven fully nonlocal model cannot be used in Structural Mechanics since it is ill-posed and the local-nonlocal mixtures based on the Eringen integral model partially resolve the ill-posedeness of the model. In fact, a singular behaviour of continuous nano-structures appears if the local fraction tends to vanish so that the ill-posedness of the Eringen integral model is not eliminated. On the contrary, local-nonlocal mixtures based on the stress-driven theory are mathematically and mechanically appropriate for nanosystems. Exact solutions of inflected functionally graded nanobeams of technical interest are established by adopting the new local-nonlocal mixture stress-driven integral relation. Effectiveness of the new nonlocal approach is tested by comparing the contributed results with the ones corresponding to the mixture Eringen theory.

Remote sensing-based estimation of annual soil respiration at two contrasting forest sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Ni; Gu, Lianhong; Black, T. Andrew; Wang, Li; Niu, Zheng

2015-11-01

Soil respiration (Rs), an important component of the global carbon cycle, can be estimated using remotely sensed data, but the accuracy of this technique has not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we proposed a methodology for the remote estimation of annual Rs at two contrasting FLUXNET forest sites (a deciduous broadleaf forest and an evergreen needleleaf forest). A version of the Akaike's information criterion was used to select the best model from a range of models for annual Rs estimation based on the remotely sensed data products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and root-zone soil moisture product derived from assimilation of the NASA Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer soil moisture products and a two-layer Palmer water balance model. We found that the Arrhenius-type function based on nighttime land surface temperature (LST-night) was the best model by comprehensively considering the model explanatory power and model complexity at the Missouri Ozark and BC-Campbell River 1949 Douglas-fir sites. In addition, a multicollinearity problem among LST-night, root-zone soil moisture, and plant photosynthesis factor was effectively avoided by selecting the LST-night-driven model. Cross validation showed that temporal variation in Rs was captured by the LST-night-driven model with a mean absolute error below 1 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1 at both forest sites. An obvious overestimation that occurred in 2005 and 2007 at the Missouri Ozark site reduced the evaluation accuracy of cross validation because of summer drought. However, no significant difference was found between the Arrhenius-type function driven by LST-night and the function considering LST-night and root-zone soil moisture. This finding indicated that the contribution of soil moisture to Rs was relatively small at our multiyear data set. To predict intersite Rs, maximum leaf area index (LAImax) was used as an upscaling factor to calibrate the site-specific reference respiration rates. Independent validation demonstrated that the model incorporating LST-night and LAImax efficiently predicted the spatial and temporal variabilities of Rs. Based on the Arrhenius-type function using LST-night as an input parameter, the rates of annual C release from Rs were 894-1027 g C m-2 yr-1 at the BC-Campbell River 1949 Douglas-fir site and 818-943 g C m-2 yr-1 at the Missouri Ozark site. The ratio between annual Rs estimates based on remotely sensed data and the total annual ecosystem respiration from eddy covariance measurements fell within the range reported in previous studies. Our results demonstrated that estimating annual Rs based on remote sensing data products was possible at deciduous and evergreen forest sites.

Testing the Accuracy of Data-driven MHD Simulations of Active Region Evolution

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leake, James E.; Linton, Mark G.; Schuck, Peter W., E-mail: james.e.leake@nasa.gov

Models for the evolution of the solar coronal magnetic field are vital for understanding solar activity, yet the best measurements of the magnetic field lie at the photosphere, necessitating the development of coronal models which are “data-driven” at the photosphere. We present an investigation to determine the feasibility and accuracy of such methods. Our validation framework uses a simulation of active region (AR) formation, modeling the emergence of magnetic flux from the convection zone to the corona, as a ground-truth data set, to supply both the photospheric information and to perform the validation of the data-driven method. We focus ourmore » investigation on how the accuracy of the data-driven model depends on the temporal frequency of the driving data. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory produces full-disk vector magnetic field measurements at a 12-minute cadence. Using our framework we show that ARs that emerge over 25 hr can be modeled by the data-driving method with only ∼1% error in the free magnetic energy, assuming the photospheric information is specified every 12 minutes. However, for rapidly evolving features, under-sampling of the dynamics at this cadence leads to a strobe effect, generating large electric currents and incorrect coronal morphology and energies. We derive a sampling condition for the driving cadence based on the evolution of these small-scale features, and show that higher-cadence driving can lead to acceptable errors. Future work will investigate the source of errors associated with deriving plasma variables from the photospheric magnetograms as well as other sources of errors, such as reduced resolution, instrument bias, and noise.« less

Performance of the air2stream model that relates air and stream water temperatures depends on the calibration method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piotrowski, Adam P.; Napiorkowski, Jaroslaw J.

2018-06-01

A number of physical or data-driven models have been proposed to evaluate stream water temperatures based on hydrological and meteorological observations. However, physical models require a large amount of information that is frequently unavailable, while data-based models ignore the physical processes. Recently the air2stream model has been proposed as an intermediate alternative that is based on physical heat budget processes, but it is so simplified that the model may be applied like data-driven ones. However, the price for simplicity is the need to calibrate eight parameters that, although have some physical meaning, cannot be measured or evaluated a priori. As a result, applicability and performance of the air2stream model for a particular stream relies on the efficiency of the calibration method. The original air2stream model uses an inefficient 20-year old approach called Particle Swarm Optimization with inertia weight. This study aims at finding an effective and robust calibration method for the air2stream model. Twelve different optimization algorithms are examined on six different streams from northern USA (states of Washington, Oregon and New York), Poland and Switzerland, located in both high mountains, hilly and lowland areas. It is found that the performance of the air2stream model depends significantly on the calibration method. Two algorithms lead to the best results for each considered stream. The air2stream model, calibrated with the chosen optimization methods, performs favorably against classical streamwater temperature models. The MATLAB code of the air2stream model and the chosen calibration procedure (CoBiDE) are available as Supplementary Material on the Journal of Hydrology web page.

The role of data and inference in the development and application of ecological site concepts and state-and-transition models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Information embodied in ecological site descriptions and their state-and-transition models is crucial to effective land management, and as such is needed now. There is not time (or money) to employ a traditional research-based approach (i.e., inductive/deductive, hypothesis driven inference) to addr...

Fuzzy model-based fault detection and diagnosis for a pilot heat exchanger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habbi, Hacene; Kidouche, Madjid; Kinnaert, Michel; Zelmat, Mimoun

2011-04-01

This article addresses the design and real-time implementation of a fuzzy model-based fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) system for a pilot co-current heat exchanger. The design method is based on a three-step procedure which involves the identification of data-driven fuzzy rule-based models, the design of a fuzzy residual generator and the evaluation of the residuals for fault diagnosis using statistical tests. The fuzzy FDD mechanism has been implemented and validated on the real co-current heat exchanger, and has been proven to be efficient in detecting and isolating process, sensor and actuator faults.

Organization-based Model-driven Development of High-assurance Multiagent Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-02-27

based Model -driven Development of High-assurance Multiagent Systems " performed by Dr. Scott A . DeLoach and Dr Robby at Kansas State University... A Capabilities Based Model for Artificial Organizations. Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems . Volume 16, no. 1, February 2008, pp...Matson, E . T. (2007). A capabilities based theory of artificial organizations. Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems

Combining Human and Machine Intelligence to Derive Agents' Behavioral Rules for Groundwater Irrigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Y.; Quinn, C.; Cai, X.

2015-12-01

One major challenge of agent-based modeling is to derive agents' behavioral rules due to behavioral uncertainty and data scarcity. This study proposes a new approach to combine a data-driven modeling based on the directed information (i.e., machine intelligence) with expert domain knowledge (i.e., human intelligence) to derive the behavioral rules of agents considering behavioral uncertainty. A directed information graph algorithm is applied to identifying the causal relationships between agents' decisions (i.e., groundwater irrigation depth) and time-series of environmental, socio-economical and institutional factors. A case study is conducted for the High Plains aquifer hydrological observatory (HO) area, U.S. Preliminary results show that four factors, corn price (CP), underlying groundwater level (GWL), monthly mean temperature (T) and precipitation (P) have causal influences on agents' decisions on groundwater irrigation depth (GWID) to various extents. Based on the similarity of the directed information graph for each agent, five clusters of graphs are further identified to represent all the agents' behaviors in the study area as shown in Figure 1. Using these five representative graphs, agents' monthly optimal groundwater pumping rates are derived through the probabilistic inference. Such data-driven relationships and probabilistic quantifications are then coupled with a physically-based groundwater model to investigate the interactions between agents' pumping behaviors and the underlying groundwater system in the context of coupled human and natural systems.

The Potential of Knowing More: A Review of Data-Driven Urban Water Management.

PubMed

Eggimann, Sven; Mutzner, Lena; Wani, Omar; Schneider, Mariane Yvonne; Spuhler, Dorothee; Moy de Vitry, Matthew; Beutler, Philipp; Maurer, Max

2017-03-07

The promise of collecting and utilizing large amounts of data has never been greater in the history of urban water management (UWM). This paper reviews several data-driven approaches which play a key role in bringing forward a sea change. It critically investigates whether data-driven UWM offers a promising foundation for addressing current challenges and supporting fundamental changes in UWM. We discuss the examples of better rain-data management, urban pluvial flood-risk management and forecasting, drinking water and sewer network operation and management, integrated design and management, increasing water productivity, wastewater-based epidemiology and on-site water and wastewater treatment. The accumulated evidence from literature points toward a future UWM that offers significant potential benefits thanks to increased collection and utilization of data. The findings show that data-driven UWM allows us to develop and apply novel methods, to optimize the efficiency of the current network-based approach, and to extend functionality of today's systems. However, generic challenges related to data-driven approaches (e.g., data processing, data availability, data quality, data costs) and the specific challenges of data-driven UWM need to be addressed, namely data access and ownership, current engineering practices and the difficulty of assessing the cost benefits of data-driven UWM.

Functional language and data flow architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ercegovac, M. D.; Patel, D. R.; Lang, T.

1983-01-01

This is a tutorial article about language and architecture approaches for highly concurrent computer systems based on the functional style of programming. The discussion concentrates on the basic aspects of functional languages, and sequencing models such as data-flow, demand-driven and reduction which are essential at the machine organization level. Several examples of highly concurrent machines are described.

A weather-driven model of malaria transmission.

PubMed

Hoshen, Moshe B; Morse, Andrew P

2004-09-06

Climate is a major driving force behind malaria transmission and climate data are often used to account for the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in malaria transmission. This paper describes a mathematical-biological model of the parasite dynamics, comprising both the weather-dependent within-vector stages and the weather-independent within-host stages. Numerical evaluations of the model in both time and space show that it qualitatively reconstructs the prevalence of infection. A process-based modelling structure has been developed that may be suitable for the simulation of malaria forecasts based on seasonal weather forecasts.

Assumption-versus data-based approaches to summarizing species' ranges.

PubMed

Peterson, A Townsend; Navarro-Sigüenza, Adolfo G; Gordillo, Alejandro

2018-06-01

For conservation decision making, species' geographic distributions are mapped using various approaches. Some such efforts have downscaled versions of coarse-resolution extent-of-occurrence maps to fine resolutions for conservation planning. We examined the quality of the extent-of-occurrence maps as range summaries and the utility of refining those maps into fine-resolution distributional hypotheses. Extent-of-occurrence maps tend to be overly simple, omit many known and well-documented populations, and likely frequently include many areas not holding populations. Refinement steps involve typological assumptions about habitat preferences and elevational ranges of species, which can introduce substantial error in estimates of species' true areas of distribution. However, no model-evaluation steps are taken to assess the predictive ability of these models, so model inaccuracies are not noticed. Whereas range summaries derived by these methods may be useful in coarse-grained, global-extent studies, their continued use in on-the-ground conservation applications at fine spatial resolutions is not advisable in light of reliance on assumptions, lack of real spatial resolution, and lack of testing. In contrast, data-driven techniques that integrate primary data on biodiversity occurrence with remotely sensed data that summarize environmental dimensions (i.e., ecological niche modeling or species distribution modeling) offer data-driven solutions based on a minimum of assumptions that can be evaluated and validated quantitatively to offer a well-founded, widely accepted method for summarizing species' distributional patterns for conservation applications. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Affordable non-traditional source data mining for context assessment to improve distributed fusion system robustness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowman, Christopher; Haith, Gary; Steinberg, Alan; Morefield, Charles; Morefield, Michael

2013-05-01

This paper describes methods to affordably improve the robustness of distributed fusion systems by opportunistically leveraging non-traditional data sources. Adaptive methods help find relevant data, create models, and characterize the model quality. These methods also can measure the conformity of this non-traditional data with fusion system products including situation modeling and mission impact prediction. Non-traditional data can improve the quantity, quality, availability, timeliness, and diversity of the baseline fusion system sources and therefore can improve prediction and estimation accuracy and robustness at all levels of fusion. Techniques are described that automatically learn to characterize and search non-traditional contextual data to enable operators integrate the data with the high-level fusion systems and ontologies. These techniques apply the extension of the Data Fusion & Resource Management Dual Node Network (DNN) technical architecture at Level 4. The DNN architecture supports effectively assessment and management of the expanded portfolio of data sources, entities of interest, models, and algorithms including data pattern discovery and context conformity. Affordable model-driven and data-driven data mining methods to discover unknown models from non-traditional and `big data' sources are used to automatically learn entity behaviors and correlations with fusion products, [14 and 15]. This paper describes our context assessment software development, and the demonstration of context assessment of non-traditional data to compare to an intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance fusion product based upon an IED POIs workflow.

A patient-specific EMG-driven neuromuscular model for the potential use of human-inspired gait rehabilitation robots.

PubMed

Ma, Ye; Xie, Shengquan; Zhang, Yanxin

2016-03-01

A patient-specific electromyography (EMG)-driven neuromuscular model (PENm) is developed for the potential use of human-inspired gait rehabilitation robots. The PENm is modified based on the current EMG-driven models by decreasing the calculation time and ensuring good prediction accuracy. To ensure the calculation efficiency, the PENm is simplified into two EMG channels around one joint with minimal physiological parameters. In addition, a dynamic computation model is developed to achieve real-time calculation. To ensure the calculation accuracy, patient-specific muscle kinematics information, such as the musculotendon lengths and the muscle moment arms during the entire gait cycle, are employed based on the patient-specific musculoskeletal model. Moreover, an improved force-length-velocity relationship is implemented to generate accurate muscle forces. Gait analysis data including kinematics, ground reaction forces, and raw EMG signals from six adolescents at three different speeds were used to evaluate the PENm. The simulation results show that the PENm has the potential to predict accurate joint moment in real-time. The design of advanced human-robot interaction control strategies and human-inspired gait rehabilitation robots can benefit from the application of the human internal state provided by the PENm. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hourly runoff forecasting for flood risk management: Application of various computational intelligence models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badrzadeh, Honey; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Jayawardena, A. W.

2015-10-01

Reliable river flow forecasts play a key role in flood risk mitigation. Among different approaches of river flow forecasting, data driven approaches have become increasingly popular in recent years due to their minimum information requirements and ability to simulate nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of hydrological processes. In this study, attempts are made to apply four different types of data driven approaches, namely traditional artificial neural networks (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS), wavelet neural networks (WNN), and, hybrid ANFIS with multi resolution analysis using wavelets (WNF). Developed models applied for real time flood forecasting at Casino station on Richmond River, Australia which is highly prone to flooding. Hourly rainfall and runoff data were used to drive the models which have been used for forecasting with 1, 6, 12, 24, 36 and 48 h lead-time. The performance of models further improved by adding an upstream river flow data (Wiangaree station), as another effective input. All models perform satisfactorily up to 12 h lead-time. However, the hybrid wavelet-based models significantly outperforming the ANFIS and ANN models in the longer lead-time forecasting. The results confirm the robustness of the proposed structure of the hybrid models for real time runoff forecasting in the study area.

View subspaces for indexing and retrieval of 3D models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutagaci, Helin; Godil, Afzal; Sankur, Bülent; Yemez, Yücel

2010-02-01

View-based indexing schemes for 3D object retrieval are gaining popularity since they provide good retrieval results. These schemes are coherent with the theory that humans recognize objects based on their 2D appearances. The viewbased techniques also allow users to search with various queries such as binary images, range images and even 2D sketches. The previous view-based techniques use classical 2D shape descriptors such as Fourier invariants, Zernike moments, Scale Invariant Feature Transform-based local features and 2D Digital Fourier Transform coefficients. These methods describe each object independent of others. In this work, we explore data driven subspace models, such as Principal Component Analysis, Independent Component Analysis and Nonnegative Matrix Factorization to describe the shape information of the views. We treat the depth images obtained from various points of the view sphere as 2D intensity images and train a subspace to extract the inherent structure of the views within a database. We also show the benefit of categorizing shapes according to their eigenvalue spread. Both the shape categorization and data-driven feature set conjectures are tested on the PSB database and compared with the competitor view-based 3D shape retrieval algorithms.

Data-driven gradient algorithm for high-precision quantum control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Re-Bing; Chu, Bing; Owens, David H.; Rabitz, Herschel

2018-04-01

In the quest to achieve scalable quantum information processing technologies, gradient-based optimal control algorithms (e.g., grape) are broadly used for implementing high-precision quantum gates, but their performance is often hindered by deterministic or random errors in the system model and the control electronics. In this paper, we show that grape can be taught to be more effective by jointly learning from the design model and the experimental data obtained from process tomography. The resulting data-driven gradient optimization algorithm (d-grape) can in principle correct all deterministic gate errors, with a mild efficiency loss. The d-grape algorithm may become more powerful with broadband controls that involve a large number of control parameters, while other algorithms usually slow down due to the increased size of the search space. These advantages are demonstrated by simulating the implementation of a two-qubit controlled-not gate.

A data-driven soft sensor for needle deflection in heterogeneous tissue using just-in-time modelling.

PubMed

Rossa, Carlos; Lehmann, Thomas; Sloboda, Ronald; Usmani, Nawaid; Tavakoli, Mahdi

2017-08-01

Global modelling has traditionally been the approach taken to estimate needle deflection in soft tissue. In this paper, we propose a new method based on local data-driven modelling of needle deflection. External measurement of needle-tissue interactions is collected from several insertions in ex vivo tissue to form a cloud of data. Inputs to the system are the needle insertion depth, axial rotations, and the forces and torques measured at the needle base by a force sensor. When a new insertion is performed, the just-in-time learning method estimates the model outputs given the current inputs to the needle-tissue system and the historical database. The query is compared to every observation in the database and is given weights according to some similarity criteria. Only a subset of historical data that is most relevant to the query is selected and a local linear model is fit to the selected points to estimate the query output. The model outputs the 3D deflection of the needle tip and the needle insertion force. The proposed approach is validated in ex vivo multilayered biological tissue in different needle insertion scenarios. Experimental results in five different case studies indicate an accuracy in predicting needle deflection of 0.81 and 1.24 mm in the horizontal and vertical lanes, respectively, and an accuracy of 0.5 N in predicting the needle insertion force over 216 needle insertions.

Learning clinically useful information from images: Past, present and future.

PubMed

Rueckert, Daniel; Glocker, Ben; Kainz, Bernhard

2016-10-01

Over the last decade, research in medical imaging has made significant progress in addressing challenging tasks such as image registration and image segmentation. In particular, the use of model-based approaches has been key in numerous, successful advances in methodology. The advantage of model-based approaches is that they allow the incorporation of prior knowledge acting as a regularisation that favours plausible solutions over implausible ones. More recently, medical imaging has moved away from hand-crafted, and often explicitly designed models towards data-driven, implicit models that are constructed using machine learning techniques. This has led to major improvements in all stages of the medical imaging pipeline, from acquisition and reconstruction to analysis and interpretation. As more and more imaging data is becoming available, e.g., from large population studies, this trend is likely to continue and accelerate. At the same time new developments in machine learning, e.g., deep learning, as well as significant improvements in computing power, e.g., parallelisation on graphics hardware, offer new potential for data-driven, semantic and intelligent medical imaging. This article outlines the work of the BioMedIA group in this area and highlights some of the challenges and opportunities for future work. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrated Workforce Planning Model: A Proof of Concept

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guruvadoo, Eranna K.

2001-01-01

Recently, the Workforce and Diversity Management Office at KSC have launched a major initiative to develop and implement a competency/skill approach to Human Resource management. As the competency/skill dictionary is being elaborated, the need for a competency-based workforce-planning model is recognized. A proof of concept for such a model is presented using a multidimensional data model that can provide the data infrastructure necessary to drive intelligent decision support systems for workforce planing. The components of competency-driven workforce planning model are explained. The data model is presented and several schemes that would support the workforce-planning model are presented. Some directions and recommendations for future work are given.

Assessing the predictive capability of randomized tree-based ensembles in streamflow modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galelli, S.; Castelletti, A.

2013-02-01

Combining randomization methods with ensemble prediction is emerging as an effective option to balance accuracy and computational efficiency in data-driven modeling. In this paper we investigate the prediction capability of extremely randomized trees (Extra-Trees), in terms of accuracy, explanation ability and computational efficiency, in a streamflow modeling exercise. Extra-Trees are a totally randomized tree-based ensemble method that (i) alleviates the poor generalization property and tendency to overfitting of traditional standalone decision trees (e.g. CART); (ii) is computationally very efficient; and, (iii) allows to infer the relative importance of the input variables, which might help in the ex-post physical interpretation of the model. The Extra-Trees potential is analyzed on two real-world case studies (Marina catchment (Singapore) and Canning River (Western Australia)) representing two different morphoclimatic contexts comparatively with other tree-based methods (CART and M5) and parametric data-driven approaches (ANNs and multiple linear regression). Results show that Extra-Trees perform comparatively well to the best of the benchmarks (i.e. M5) in both the watersheds, while outperforming the other approaches in terms of computational requirement when adopted on large datasets. In addition, the ranking of the input variable provided can be given a physically meaningful interpretation.

Assessing the predictive capability of randomized tree-based ensembles in streamflow modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galelli, S.; Castelletti, A.

2013-07-01

Combining randomization methods with ensemble prediction is emerging as an effective option to balance accuracy and computational efficiency in data-driven modelling. In this paper, we investigate the prediction capability of extremely randomized trees (Extra-Trees), in terms of accuracy, explanation ability and computational efficiency, in a streamflow modelling exercise. Extra-Trees are a totally randomized tree-based ensemble method that (i) alleviates the poor generalisation property and tendency to overfitting of traditional standalone decision trees (e.g. CART); (ii) is computationally efficient; and, (iii) allows to infer the relative importance of the input variables, which might help in the ex-post physical interpretation of the model. The Extra-Trees potential is analysed on two real-world case studies - Marina catchment (Singapore) and Canning River (Western Australia) - representing two different morphoclimatic contexts. The evaluation is performed against other tree-based methods (CART and M5) and parametric data-driven approaches (ANNs and multiple linear regression). Results show that Extra-Trees perform comparatively well to the best of the benchmarks (i.e. M5) in both the watersheds, while outperforming the other approaches in terms of computational requirement when adopted on large datasets. In addition, the ranking of the input variable provided can be given a physically meaningful interpretation.

A high spatial resolution X-ray and Hα study of hot gas in the halos of star-forming disk galaxies -- testing feedback models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strickland, D. K.; Heckman, T. M.; Colbert, E. J. M.; Hoopes, C. G.; Weaver, K. A.

2002-12-01

We present arcsecond resolution Chandra X-ray and ground-based optical Hα imaging of a sample of ten edge-on star-forming disk galaxies (seven starburst and three ``normal'' spiral galaxies), a sample which covers the full range of star-formation intensity found in disk galaxies. The X-ray observations make use of the unprecented spatial resolution of the Chandra X-ray observatory to robustly remove X-ray emission from point sources, and hence obtain the X-ray properties of the diffuse thermal emission alone. This data has been combined with existing, comparable-resolution, ground-based Hα imaging. We compare these empirically-derived diffuse X-ray properties with various models for the generation of hot gas in the halos of star-forming galaxies: supernova feedback-based models (starburst-driven winds, galactic fountains), cosmologically-motivated accretion of the IGM and AGN-driven winds. SN feedback models best explain the observed diffuse X-ray emission. We then use the data to test basic, but fundamental, aspects of wind and fountain theories, e.g. the critical energy required for disk "break-out." DKS is supported by NASA through Chandra Postdoctoral Fellowship Award Number PF0-10012.

Data Driven Synthesis of Three Term Digital Controllers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keel, Lee H.; Mitra, Sandipan; Bhattacharyya, Shankar P.

This paper presents a method for digital PID and first order controller synthesis based on frequency domain data alone. The techniques given here first determine all stabilizing controllers from measurement data. In both PID and first order controller cases, the only information required are frequency domain data (Nyquist-Bode data) and the number of open-loop RHP poles. Specifically no identification of the plant model is required. Examples are given for illustration.

Data collection and analysis strategies for phMRI.

PubMed

Mandeville, Joseph B; Liu, Christina H; Vanduffel, Wim; Marota, John J A; Jenkins, Bruce G

2014-09-01

Although functional MRI traditionally has been applied mainly to study changes in task-induced brain function, evolving acquisition methodologies and improved knowledge of signal mechanisms have increased the utility of this method for studying responses to pharmacological stimuli, a technique often dubbed "phMRI". The proliferation of higher magnetic field strengths and the use of exogenous contrast agent have boosted detection power, a critical factor for successful phMRI due to the restricted ability to average multiple stimuli within subjects. Receptor-based models of neurovascular coupling, including explicit pharmacological models incorporating receptor densities and affinities and data-driven models that incorporate weak biophysical constraints, have demonstrated compelling descriptions of phMRI signal induced by dopaminergic stimuli. This report describes phMRI acquisition and analysis methodologies, with an emphasis on data-driven analyses. As an example application, statistically efficient data-driven regressors were used to describe the biphasic response to the mu-opioid agonist remifentanil, and antagonism using dopaminergic and GABAergic ligands revealed modulation of the mesolimbic pathway. Results illustrate the power of phMRI as well as our incomplete understanding of mechanisms underlying the signal. Future directions are discussed for phMRI acquisitions in human studies, for evolving analysis methodologies, and for interpretative studies using the new generation of simultaneous PET/MRI scanners. This article is part of the Special Issue Section entitled 'Neuroimaging in Neuropharmacology'. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Supporting Inquiry in Science Classrooms with the Web

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simons, Krista; Clark, Doug

2005-01-01

This paper focuses on Web-based science inquiry and five representative science learning environments. The discussion centers around features that sustain science inquiry, namely, data-driven investigation, modeling, collaboration, and scaffolding. From the perspective of these features five science learning environments are detailed: Whyville,…

Data-driven heterogeneity in mathematical learning disabilities based on the triple code model.

PubMed

Peake, Christian; Jiménez, Juan E; Rodríguez, Cristina

2017-12-01

Many classifications of heterogeneity in mathematical learning disabilities (MLD) have been proposed over the past four decades, however no empirical research has been conducted until recently, and none of the classifications are derived from Triple Code Model (TCM) postulates. The TCM proposes MLD as a heterogeneous disorder, with two distinguishable profiles: a representational subtype and a verbal subtype. A sample of elementary school 3rd to 6th graders was divided into two age cohorts (3rd - 4th grades, and 5th - 6th grades). Using data-driven strategies, based on the cognitive classification variables predicted by the TCM, our sample of children with MLD clustered as expected: a group with representational deficits and a group with number-fact retrieval deficits. In the younger group, a spatial subtype also emerged, while in both cohorts a non-specific cluster was produced whose profile could not be explained by this theoretical approach. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparative study of artificial neural network, adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system and support vector machine for forecasting river flow in the semiarid mountain region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Zhibin; Wen, Xiaohu; Liu, Hu; Du, Jun

2014-02-01

Data driven models are very useful for river flow forecasting when the underlying physical relationships are not fully understand, but it is not clear whether these data driven models still have a good performance in the small river basin of semiarid mountain regions where have complicated topography. In this study, the potential of three different data driven methods, artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and support vector machine (SVM) were used for forecasting river flow in the semiarid mountain region, northwestern China. The models analyzed different combinations of antecedent river flow values and the appropriate input vector has been selected based on the analysis of residuals. The performance of the ANN, ANFIS and SVM models in training and validation sets are compared with the observed data. The model which consists of three antecedent values of flow has been selected as the best fit model for river flow forecasting. To get more accurate evaluation of the results of ANN, ANFIS and SVM models, the four quantitative standard statistical performance evaluation measures, the coefficient of correlation (R), root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS) and mean absolute relative error (MARE), were employed to evaluate the performances of various models developed. The results indicate that the performance obtained by ANN, ANFIS and SVM in terms of different evaluation criteria during the training and validation period does not vary substantially; the performance of the ANN, ANFIS and SVM models in river flow forecasting was satisfactory. A detailed comparison of the overall performance indicated that the SVM model performed better than ANN and ANFIS in river flow forecasting for the validation data sets. The results also suggest that ANN, ANFIS and SVM method can be successfully applied to establish river flow with complicated topography forecasting models in the semiarid mountain regions.

Reconstruction of fire regimes through integrated paleoecological proxy data and ecological modeling.

PubMed

Iglesias, Virginia; Yospin, Gabriel I; Whitlock, Cathy

2014-01-01

Fire is a key ecological process affecting vegetation dynamics and land cover. The characteristic frequency, size, and intensity of fire are driven by interactions between top-down climate-driven and bottom-up fuel-related processes. Disentangling climatic from non-climatic drivers of past fire regimes is a grand challenge in Earth systems science, and a topic where both paleoecology and ecological modeling have made substantial contributions. In this manuscript, we (1) review the use of sedimentary charcoal as a fire proxy and the methods used in charcoal-based fire history reconstructions; (2) identify existing techniques for paleoecological modeling; and (3) evaluate opportunities for coupling of paleoecological and ecological modeling approaches to better understand the causes and consequences of past, present, and future fire activity.

Reconstruction of fire regimes through integrated paleoecological proxy data and ecological modeling

PubMed Central

Iglesias, Virginia; Yospin, Gabriel I.; Whitlock, Cathy

2015-01-01

Fire is a key ecological process affecting vegetation dynamics and land cover. The characteristic frequency, size, and intensity of fire are driven by interactions between top-down climate-driven and bottom-up fuel-related processes. Disentangling climatic from non-climatic drivers of past fire regimes is a grand challenge in Earth systems science, and a topic where both paleoecology and ecological modeling have made substantial contributions. In this manuscript, we (1) review the use of sedimentary charcoal as a fire proxy and the methods used in charcoal-based fire history reconstructions; (2) identify existing techniques for paleoecological modeling; and (3) evaluate opportunities for coupling of paleoecological and ecological modeling approaches to better understand the causes and consequences of past, present, and future fire activity. PMID:25657652

Effects of a Data-Driven District-Level Reform Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Slavin, Robert E.; Holmes, GwenCarol; Madden, Nancy A.; Chamberlain, Anne; Cheung, Alan

2010-01-01

Despite a quarter-century of reform, US schools serving students in poverty continue to lag far behind other schools. There are proven programs, but these are not widely used. This large-scale experiment evaluated a district-level reform model created by the Center for DataDriven Reform in Education (CDDRE). The CDDRE model provided consultation…

Determination of the Parameter Sets for the Best Performance of IPS-driven ENLIL Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yun, Jongyeon; Choi, Kyu-Cheol; Yi, Jonghyuk; Kim, Jaehun; Odstrcil, Dusan

2016-12-01

Interplanetary scintillation-driven (IPS-driven) ENLIL model was jointly developed by University of California, San Diego (UCSD) and National Aeronaucics and Space Administration/Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA/GSFC). The model has been in operation by Korean Space Weather Cetner (KSWC) since 2014. IPS-driven ENLIL model has a variety of ambient solar wind parameters and the results of the model depend on the combination of these parameters. We have conducted researches to determine the best combination of parameters to improve the performance of the IPS-driven ENLIL model. The model results with input of 1,440 combinations of parameters are compared with the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) observation data. In this way, the top 10 parameter sets showing best performance were determined. Finally, the characteristics of the parameter sets were analyzed and application of the results to IPS-driven ENLIL model was discussed.

Data-based adjoint and H2 optimal control of the Ginzburg-Landau equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banks, Michael; Bodony, Daniel

2017-11-01

Equation-free, reduced-order methods of control are desirable when the governing system of interest is of very high dimension or the control is to be applied to a physical experiment. Two-phase flow optimal control problems, our target application, fit these criteria. Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) is a data-driven method for model reduction that can be used to resolve the dynamics of very high dimensional systems and project the dynamics onto a smaller, more manageable basis. We evaluate the effectiveness of DMD-based forward and adjoint operator estimation when applied to H2 optimal control approaches applied to the linear and nonlinear Ginzburg-Landau equation. Perspectives on applying the data-driven adjoint to two phase flow control will be given. Office of Naval Research (ONR) as part of the Multidisciplinary University Research Initiatives (MURI) Program, under Grant Number N00014-16-1-2617.

Scenario driven data modelling: a method for integrating diverse sources of data and data streams

DOEpatents

Brettin, Thomas S.; Cottingham, Robert W.; Griffith, Shelton D.; Quest, Daniel J.

2015-09-08

A system and method of integrating diverse sources of data and data streams is presented. The method can include selecting a scenario based on a topic, creating a multi-relational directed graph based on the scenario, identifying and converting resources in accordance with the scenario and updating the multi-directed graph based on the resources, identifying data feeds in accordance with the scenario and updating the multi-directed graph based on the data feeds, identifying analytical routines in accordance with the scenario and updating the multi-directed graph using the analytical routines and identifying data outputs in accordance with the scenario and defining queries to produce the data outputs from the multi-directed graph.

Petri net model for analysis of concurrently processed complex algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stoughton, John W.; Mielke, Roland R.

1986-01-01

This paper presents a Petri-net model suitable for analyzing the concurrent processing of computationally complex algorithms. The decomposed operations are to be processed in a multiple processor, data driven architecture. Of particular interest is the application of the model to both the description of the data/control flow of a particular algorithm, and to the general specification of the data driven architecture. A candidate architecture is also presented.

Expanding the role of reactive transport models in critical zone processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Li, Li; Maher, Kate; Navarre-Sitchler, Alexis; Druhan, Jennifer; Meile, Christof; Lawrence, Corey; Moore, Joel; Perdrial, Julia; Sullivan, Pamela; Thompson, Aaron; Jin, Lixin; Bolton, Edward W.; Brantley, Susan L.; Dietrich, William E.; Mayer, K. Ulrich; Steefel, Carl; Valocchi, Albert J.; Zachara, John M.; Kocar, Benjamin D.; McIntosh, Jennifer; Tutolo, Benjamin M.; Kumar, Mukesh; Sonnenthal, Eric; Bao, Chen; Beisman, Joe

2017-01-01

Models test our understanding of processes and can reach beyond the spatial and temporal scales of measurements. Multi-component Reactive Transport Models (RTMs), initially developed more than three decades ago, have been used extensively to explore the interactions of geothermal, hydrologic, geochemical, and geobiological processes in subsurface systems. Driven by extensive data sets now available from intensive measurement efforts, there is a pressing need to couple RTMs with other community models to explore non-linear interactions among the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and geosphere. Here we briefly review the history of RTM development, summarize the current state of RTM approaches, and identify new research directions, opportunities, and infrastructure needs to broaden the use of RTMs. In particular, we envision the expanded use of RTMs in advancing process understanding in the Critical Zone, the veneer of the Earth that extends from the top of vegetation to the bottom of groundwater. We argue that, although parsimonious models are essential at larger scales, process-based models offer tools to explore the highly nonlinear coupling that characterizes natural systems. We present seven testable hypotheses that emphasize the unique capabilities of process-based RTMs for (1) elucidating chemical weathering and its physical and biogeochemical drivers; (2) understanding the interactions among roots, micro-organisms, carbon, water, and minerals in the rhizosphere; (3) assessing the effects of heterogeneity across spatial and temporal scales; and (4) integrating the vast quantity of novel data, including “omics” data (genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics), elemental concentration and speciation data, and isotope data into our understanding of complex earth surface systems. With strong support from data-driven sciences, we are now in an exciting era where integration of RTM framework into other community models will facilitate process understanding across disciplines and across scales.

Simulating large-scale pedestrian movement using CA and event driven model: Methodology and case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jun; Fu, Siyao; He, Haibo; Jia, Hongfei; Li, Yanzhong; Guo, Yi

2015-11-01

Large-scale regional evacuation is an important part of national security emergency response plan. Large commercial shopping area, as the typical service system, its emergency evacuation is one of the hot research topics. A systematic methodology based on Cellular Automata with the Dynamic Floor Field and event driven model has been proposed, and the methodology has been examined within context of a case study involving the evacuation within a commercial shopping mall. Pedestrians walking is based on Cellular Automata and event driven model. In this paper, the event driven model is adopted to simulate the pedestrian movement patterns, the simulation process is divided into normal situation and emergency evacuation. The model is composed of four layers: environment layer, customer layer, clerk layer and trajectory layer. For the simulation of movement route of pedestrians, the model takes into account purchase intention of customers and density of pedestrians. Based on evacuation model of Cellular Automata with Dynamic Floor Field and event driven model, we can reflect behavior characteristics of customers and clerks at the situations of normal and emergency evacuation. The distribution of individual evacuation time as a function of initial positions and the dynamics of the evacuation process is studied. Our results indicate that the evacuation model using the combination of Cellular Automata with Dynamic Floor Field and event driven scheduling can be used to simulate the evacuation of pedestrian flows in indoor areas with complicated surroundings and to investigate the layout of shopping mall.

Moisture transfer through the membrane of a cross-flow energy recovery ventilator: Measurement and simple data-driven modeling

Treesearch

CR Boardman; Samuel V. Glass

2015-01-01

The moisture transfer effectiveness (or latent effectiveness) of a cross-flow, membrane based energy recovery ventilator is measured and modeled. Analysis of in situ measurements for a full year shows that energy recovery ventilator latent effectiveness increases with increasing average relative humidity and surprisingly increases with decreasing average temperature. A...

Towards predictive data-driven simulations of wildfire spread - Part I: Reduced-cost Ensemble Kalman Filter based on a Polynomial Chaos surrogate model for parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rochoux, M. C.; Ricci, S.; Lucor, D.; Cuenot, B.; Trouvé, A.

2014-05-01

This paper is the first part in a series of two articles and presents a data-driven wildfire simulator for forecasting wildfire spread scenarios, at a reduced computational cost that is consistent with operational systems. The prototype simulator features the following components: a level-set-based fire propagation solver FIREFLY that adopts a regional-scale modeling viewpoint, treats wildfires as surface propagating fronts, and uses a description of the local rate of fire spread (ROS) as a function of environmental conditions based on Rothermel's model; a series of airborne-like observations of the fire front positions; and a data assimilation algorithm based on an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for parameter estimation. This stochastic algorithm partly accounts for the non-linearities between the input parameters of the semi-empirical ROS model and the fire front position, and is sequentially applied to provide a spatially-uniform correction to wind and biomass fuel parameters as observations become available. A wildfire spread simulator combined with an ensemble-based data assimilation algorithm is therefore a promising approach to reduce uncertainties in the forecast position of the fire front and to introduce a paradigm-shift in the wildfire emergency response. In order to reduce the computational cost of the EnKF algorithm, a surrogate model based on a polynomial chaos (PC) expansion is used in place of the forward model FIREFLY in the resulting hybrid PC-EnKF algorithm. The performance of EnKF and PC-EnKF is assessed on synthetically-generated simple configurations of fire spread to provide valuable information and insight on the benefits of the PC-EnKF approach as well as on a controlled grassland fire experiment. The results indicate that the proposed PC-EnKF algorithm features similar performance to the standard EnKF algorithm, but at a much reduced computational cost. In particular, the re-analysis and forecast skills of data assimilation strongly relate to the spatial and temporal variability of the errors in the ROS model parameters.

Evaluating data-driven causal inference techniques in noisy physical and ecological systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tennant, C.; Larsen, L.

2016-12-01

Causal inference from observational time series challenges traditional approaches for understanding processes and offers exciting opportunities to gain new understanding of complex systems where nonlinearity, delayed forcing, and emergent behavior are common. We present a formal evaluation of the performance of convergent cross-mapping (CCM) and transfer entropy (TE) for data-driven causal inference under real-world conditions. CCM is based on nonlinear state-space reconstruction, and causality is determined by the convergence of prediction skill with an increasing number of observations of the system. TE is the uncertainty reduction based on transition probabilities of a pair of time-lagged variables. With TE, causal inference is based on asymmetry in information flow between the variables. Observational data and numerical simulations from a number of classical physical and ecological systems: atmospheric convection (the Lorenz system), species competition (patch-tournaments), and long-term climate change (Vostok ice core) were used to evaluate the ability of CCM and TE to infer causal-relationships as data series become increasingly corrupted by observational (instrument-driven) or process (model-or -stochastic-driven) noise. While both techniques show promise for causal inference, TE appears to be applicable to a wider range of systems, especially when the data series are of sufficient length to reliably estimate transition probabilities of system components. Both techniques also show a clear effect of observational noise on causal inference. For example, CCM exhibits a negative logarithmic decline in prediction skill as the noise level of the system increases. Changes in TE strongly depend on noise type and which variable the noise was added to. The ability of CCM and TE to detect driving influences suggest that their application to physical and ecological systems could be transformative for understanding driving mechanisms as Earth systems undergo change.

Data-driven reverse engineering of signaling pathways using ensembles of dynamic models.

PubMed

Henriques, David; Villaverde, Alejandro F; Rocha, Miguel; Saez-Rodriguez, Julio; Banga, Julio R

2017-02-01

Despite significant efforts and remarkable progress, the inference of signaling networks from experimental data remains very challenging. The problem is particularly difficult when the objective is to obtain a dynamic model capable of predicting the effect of novel perturbations not considered during model training. The problem is ill-posed due to the nonlinear nature of these systems, the fact that only a fraction of the involved proteins and their post-translational modifications can be measured, and limitations on the technologies used for growing cells in vitro, perturbing them, and measuring their variations. As a consequence, there is a pervasive lack of identifiability. To overcome these issues, we present a methodology called SELDOM (enSEmbLe of Dynamic lOgic-based Models), which builds an ensemble of logic-based dynamic models, trains them to experimental data, and combines their individual simulations into an ensemble prediction. It also includes a model reduction step to prune spurious interactions and mitigate overfitting. SELDOM is a data-driven method, in the sense that it does not require any prior knowledge of the system: the interaction networks that act as scaffolds for the dynamic models are inferred from data using mutual information. We have tested SELDOM on a number of experimental and in silico signal transduction case-studies, including the recent HPN-DREAM breast cancer challenge. We found that its performance is highly competitive compared to state-of-the-art methods for the purpose of recovering network topology. More importantly, the utility of SELDOM goes beyond basic network inference (i.e. uncovering static interaction networks): it builds dynamic (based on ordinary differential equation) models, which can be used for mechanistic interpretations and reliable dynamic predictions in new experimental conditions (i.e. not used in the training). For this task, SELDOM's ensemble prediction is not only consistently better than predictions from individual models, but also often outperforms the state of the art represented by the methods used in the HPN-DREAM challenge.

Data-driven reverse engineering of signaling pathways using ensembles of dynamic models

PubMed Central

Henriques, David; Villaverde, Alejandro F.; Banga, Julio R.

2017-01-01

Despite significant efforts and remarkable progress, the inference of signaling networks from experimental data remains very challenging. The problem is particularly difficult when the objective is to obtain a dynamic model capable of predicting the effect of novel perturbations not considered during model training. The problem is ill-posed due to the nonlinear nature of these systems, the fact that only a fraction of the involved proteins and their post-translational modifications can be measured, and limitations on the technologies used for growing cells in vitro, perturbing them, and measuring their variations. As a consequence, there is a pervasive lack of identifiability. To overcome these issues, we present a methodology called SELDOM (enSEmbLe of Dynamic lOgic-based Models), which builds an ensemble of logic-based dynamic models, trains them to experimental data, and combines their individual simulations into an ensemble prediction. It also includes a model reduction step to prune spurious interactions and mitigate overfitting. SELDOM is a data-driven method, in the sense that it does not require any prior knowledge of the system: the interaction networks that act as scaffolds for the dynamic models are inferred from data using mutual information. We have tested SELDOM on a number of experimental and in silico signal transduction case-studies, including the recent HPN-DREAM breast cancer challenge. We found that its performance is highly competitive compared to state-of-the-art methods for the purpose of recovering network topology. More importantly, the utility of SELDOM goes beyond basic network inference (i.e. uncovering static interaction networks): it builds dynamic (based on ordinary differential equation) models, which can be used for mechanistic interpretations and reliable dynamic predictions in new experimental conditions (i.e. not used in the training). For this task, SELDOM’s ensemble prediction is not only consistently better than predictions from individual models, but also often outperforms the state of the art represented by the methods used in the HPN-DREAM challenge. PMID:28166222

Predicting the stochastic guiding of kinesin-driven microtubules in microfabricated tracks: a statistical-mechanics-based modeling approach.

PubMed

Lin, Chih-Tin; Meyhofer, Edgar; Kurabayashi, Katsuo

2010-01-01

Directional control of microtubule shuttles via microfabricated tracks is key to the development of controlled nanoscale mass transport by kinesin motor molecules. Here we develop and test a model to quantitatively predict the stochastic behavior of microtubule guiding when they mechanically collide with the sidewalls of lithographically patterned tracks. By taking into account appropriate probability distributions of microscopic states of the microtubule system, the model allows us to theoretically analyze the roles of collision conditions and kinesin surface densities in determining how the motion of microtubule shuttles is controlled. In addition, we experimentally observe the statistics of microtubule collision events and compare our theoretical prediction with experimental data to validate our model. The model will direct the design of future hybrid nanotechnology devices that integrate nanoscale transport systems powered by kinesin-driven molecular shuttles.

Novel Formulation of Adaptive MPC as EKF Using ANN Model: Multiproduct Semibatch Polymerization Reactor Case Study.

PubMed

Kamesh, Reddi; Rani, Kalipatnapu Yamuna

2017-12-01

In this paper, a novel formulation for nonlinear model predictive control (MPC) has been proposed incorporating the extended Kalman filter (EKF) control concept using a purely data-driven artificial neural network (ANN) model based on measurements for supervisory control. The proposed scheme consists of two modules focusing on online parameter estimation based on past measurements and control estimation over control horizon based on minimizing the deviation of model output predictions from set points along the prediction horizon. An industrial case study for temperature control of a multiproduct semibatch polymerization reactor posed as a challenge problem has been considered as a test bed to apply the proposed ANN-EKFMPC strategy at supervisory level as a cascade control configuration along with proportional integral controller [ANN-EKFMPC with PI (ANN-EKFMPC-PI)]. The proposed approach is formulated incorporating all aspects of MPC including move suppression factor for control effort minimization and constraint-handling capability including terminal constraints. The nominal stability analysis and offset-free tracking capabilities of the proposed controller are proved. Its performance is evaluated by comparison with a standard MPC-based cascade control approach using the same adaptive ANN model. The ANN-EKFMPC-PI control configuration has shown better controller performance in terms of temperature tracking, smoother input profiles, as well as constraint-handling ability compared with the ANN-MPC with PI approach for two products in summer and winter. The proposed scheme is found to be versatile although it is based on a purely data-driven model with online parameter estimation.

Data-Driven Residential Load Modeling and Validation in GridLAB-D

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gotseff, Peter; Lundstrom, Blake

Accurately characterizing the impacts of high penetrations of distributed energy resources (DER) on the electric distribution system has driven modeling methods from traditional static snap shots, often representing a critical point in time (e.g., summer peak load), to quasi-static time series (QSTS) simulations capturing all the effects of variable DER, associated controls and hence, impacts on the distribution system over a given time period. Unfortunately, the high time resolution DER source and load data required for model inputs is often scarce or non-existent. This paper presents work performed within the GridLAB-D model environment to synthesize, calibrate, and validate 1-second residentialmore » load models based on measured transformer loads and physics-based models suitable for QSTS electric distribution system modeling. The modeling and validation approach taken was to create a typical GridLAB-D model home that, when replicated to represent multiple diverse houses on a single transformer, creates a statistically similar load to a measured load for a given weather input. The model homes are constructed to represent the range of actual homes on an instrumented transformer: square footage, thermal integrity, heating and cooling system definition as well as realistic occupancy schedules. House model calibration and validation was performed using the distribution transformer load data and corresponding weather. The modeled loads were found to be similar to the measured loads for four evaluation metrics: 1) daily average energy, 2) daily average and standard deviation of power, 3) power spectral density, and 4) load shape.« less

Nonlinear Friction Compensation of Ball Screw Driven Stage Based on Variable Natural Length Spring Model and Disturbance Observer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asaumi, Hiroyoshi; Fujimoto, Hiroshi

Ball screw driven stages are used for industrial equipments such as machine tools and semiconductor equipments. Fast and precise positioning is necessary to enhance productivity and microfabrication technology of the system. The rolling friction of the ball screw driven stage deteriorate the positioning performance. Therefore, the control system based on the friction model is necessary. In this paper, we propose variable natural length spring model (VNLS model) as the friction model. VNLS model is simple and easy to implement as friction controller. Next, we propose multi variable natural length spring model (MVNLS model) as the friction model. MVNLS model can represent friction characteristic of the stage precisely. Moreover, the control system based on MVNLS model and disturbance observer is proposed. Finally, the simulation results and experimental results show the advantages of the proposed method.

Adequacy of satellite derived rainfall data for stream flow modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Artan, G.; Gadain, Hussein; Smith, Jodie; Asante, Kwasi; Bandaragoda, C.J.; Verdin, J.P.

2007-01-01

Floods are the most common and widespread climate-related hazard on Earth. Flood forecasting can reduce the death toll associated with floods. Satellites offer effective and economical means for calculating areal rainfall estimates in sparsely gauged regions. However, satellite-based rainfall estimates have had limited use in flood forecasting and hydrologic stream flow modeling because the rainfall estimates were considered to be unreliable. In this study we present the calibration and validation results from a spatially distributed hydrologic model driven by daily satellite-based estimates of rainfall for sub-basins of the Nile and Mekong Rivers. The results demonstrate the usefulness of remotely sensed precipitation data for hydrologic modeling when the hydrologic model is calibrated with such data. However, the remotely sensed rainfall estimates cannot be used confidently with hydrologic models that are calibrated with rain gauge measured rainfall, unless the model is recalibrated. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2007.

The mark of vegetation change on Earth's surface energy balance: data-driven diagnostics and model validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cescatti, A.; Duveiller, G.; Hooker, J.

2017-12-01

Changing vegetation cover not only affects the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases but also alters the radiative and non-radiative properties of the surface. The result of competing biophysical processes on Earth's surface energy balance varies spatially and seasonally, and can lead to warming or cooling depending on the specific vegetation change and on the background climate. To date these effects are not accounted for in land-based climate policies because of the complexity of the phenomena, contrasting model predictions and the lack of global data-driven assessments. To overcome the limitations of available observation-based diagnostics and of the on-going model inter-comparison, here we present a new benchmarking dataset derived from satellite remote sensing. This global dataset provides the potential changes induced by multiple vegetation transitions on the single terms of the surface energy balance. We used this dataset for two major goals: 1) Quantify the impact of actual vegetation changes that occurred during the decade 2000-2010, showing the overwhelming role of tropical deforestation in warming the surface by reducing evapotranspiration despite the concurrent brightening of the Earth. 2) Benchmark a series of ESMs against data-driven metrics of the land cover change impacts on the various terms of the surface energy budget and on the surface temperature. We anticipate that the dataset could be also used to evaluate future scenarios of land cover change and to develop the monitoring, reporting and verification guidelines required for the implementation of mitigation plans that account for biophysical land processes.

Lower extremity EMG-driven modeling of walking with automated adjustment of musculoskeletal geometry

PubMed Central

Meyer, Andrew J.; Patten, Carolynn

2017-01-01

Neuromusculoskeletal disorders affecting walking ability are often difficult to manage, in part due to limited understanding of how a patient’s lower extremity muscle excitations contribute to the patient’s lower extremity joint moments. To assist in the study of these disorders, researchers have developed electromyography (EMG) driven neuromusculoskeletal models utilizing scaled generic musculoskeletal geometry. While these models can predict individual muscle contributions to lower extremity joint moments during walking, the accuracy of the predictions can be hindered by errors in the scaled geometry. This study presents a novel EMG-driven modeling method that automatically adjusts surrogate representations of the patient’s musculoskeletal geometry to improve prediction of lower extremity joint moments during walking. In addition to commonly adjusted neuromusculoskeletal model parameters, the proposed method adjusts model parameters defining muscle-tendon lengths, velocities, and moment arms. We evaluated our EMG-driven modeling method using data collected from a high-functioning hemiparetic subject walking on an instrumented treadmill at speeds ranging from 0.4 to 0.8 m/s. EMG-driven model parameter values were calibrated to match inverse dynamic moments for five degrees of freedom in each leg while keeping musculoskeletal geometry close to that of an initial scaled musculoskeletal model. We found that our EMG-driven modeling method incorporating automated adjustment of musculoskeletal geometry predicted net joint moments during walking more accurately than did the same method without geometric adjustments. Geometric adjustments improved moment prediction errors by 25% on average and up to 52%, with the largest improvements occurring at the hip. Predicted adjustments to musculoskeletal geometry were comparable to errors reported in the literature between scaled generic geometric models and measurements made from imaging data. Our results demonstrate that with appropriate experimental data, joint moment predictions for walking generated by an EMG-driven model can be improved significantly when automated adjustment of musculoskeletal geometry is included in the model calibration process. PMID:28700708

Variations of leaf longevity in tropical moist forests predicted by a trait-driven carbon optimality model

DOE PAGES

Xu, Xiangtao; Medvigy, David; Wright, Stuart Joseph; ...

2017-07-04

Leaf longevity (LL) varies more than 20-fold in tropical evergreen forests, but it remains unclear how to capture these variations using predictive models. Current theories of LL that are based on carbon optimisation principles are challenging to quantitatively assess because of uncertainty across species in the ‘ageing rate:’ the rate at which leaf photosynthetic capacity declines with age. Here in this paper, we present a meta-analysis of 49 species across temperate and tropical biomes, demonstrating that the ageing rate of photosynthetic capacity is positively correlated with the mass-based carboxylation rate of mature leaves. We assess an improved trait-driven carbon optimalitymore » model with in situLL data for 105 species in two Panamanian forests. Additionally, we show that our model explains over 40% of the cross-species variation in LL under contrasting light environment. Collectively, our results reveal how variation in LL emerges from carbon optimisation constrained by both leaf structural traits and abiotic environment.« less

Dynamic modeling and motion simulation for a winged hybrid-driven underwater glider

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shu-Xin; Sun, Xiu-Jun; Wang, Yan-Hui; Wu, Jian-Guo; Wang, Xiao-Ming

2011-03-01

PETREL, a winged hybrid-driven underwater glider is a novel and practical marine survey platform which combines the features of legacy underwater glider and conventional AUV (autonomous underwater vehicle). It can be treated as a multi-rigid-body system with a floating base and a particular hydrodynamic profile. In this paper, theorems on linear and angular momentum are used to establish the dynamic equations of motion of each rigid body and the effect of translational and rotational motion of internal masses on the attitude control are taken into consideration. In addition, due to the unique external shape with fixed wings and deflectable rudders and the dual-drive operation in thrust and glide modes, the approaches of building dynamic model of conventional AUV and hydrodynamic model of submarine are introduced, and the tailored dynamic equations of the hybrid glider are formulated. Moreover, the behaviors of motion in glide and thrust operation are analyzed based on the simulation and the feasibility of the dynamic model is validated by data from lake field trials.

Variations of leaf longevity in tropical moist forests predicted by a trait-driven carbon optimality model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Xiangtao; Medvigy, David; Wright, Stuart Joseph

Leaf longevity (LL) varies more than 20-fold in tropical evergreen forests, but it remains unclear how to capture these variations using predictive models. Current theories of LL that are based on carbon optimisation principles are challenging to quantitatively assess because of uncertainty across species in the ‘ageing rate:’ the rate at which leaf photosynthetic capacity declines with age. Here in this paper, we present a meta-analysis of 49 species across temperate and tropical biomes, demonstrating that the ageing rate of photosynthetic capacity is positively correlated with the mass-based carboxylation rate of mature leaves. We assess an improved trait-driven carbon optimalitymore » model with in situLL data for 105 species in two Panamanian forests. Additionally, we show that our model explains over 40% of the cross-species variation in LL under contrasting light environment. Collectively, our results reveal how variation in LL emerges from carbon optimisation constrained by both leaf structural traits and abiotic environment.« less

The role of climate in the global patterns of ecosystem carbon turnover rates - contrasts between data and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvalhais, N.; Forkel, M.; Khomik, M.; Bellarby, J.; Migliavacca, M.; Thurner, M.; Beer, C.; Jung, M.; Mu, M.; Randerson, J. T.; Saatchi, S. S.; Santoro, M.; Reichstein, M.

2012-12-01

The turnover rates of carbon in terrestrial ecosystems and their sensitivity to climate are instrumental properties for diagnosing the interannual variability and forecasting trends of biogeochemical processes and carbon-cycle-climate feedbacks. We propose to globally look at the spatial distribution of turnover rates of carbon to explore the association between bioclimatic regimes and the rates at which carbon cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. Based on data-driven approaches of ecosystem carbon fluxes and data-based estimates of ecosystem carbon stocks it is possible to build fully observationally supported diagnostics. These data driven diagnostics support the benchmarking of CMIP5 model outputs (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) with observationally based estimates. The models' performance is addressed by confronting spatial patterns of carbon fluxes and stocks with data, as well as the global and regional sensitivities of turnover rates to climate. Our results show strong latitudinal gradients globally, mostly controlled by temperature, which are not always paralleled by CMIP5 simulations. In northern colder regions is also where the largest difference in temperature sensitivity between models and data occurs. Interestingly, there seem to be two different statistical populations in the data (some with high, others with low apparent temperature sensitivity of carbon turnover rates), where the different models only seem to describe either one or the other population. Additionally, the comparisons within bioclimatic classes can even show opposite patterns between turnover rates and temperature in water limited regions. Overall, our analysis emphasizes the role of finding patterns and intrinsic properties instead of plain magnitudes of fluxes for diagnosing the sensitivities of terrestrial biogeochemical cycles to climate. Further, our regional analysis suggests a significant gap in addressing the partial influence of water in the ecosystem carbon turnover rates especially in very cold or water limited regions.

Eyes On the Ground: Path Forward Analysis.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brost, Randolph; Little, Charles Q.; peter-stein, natacha

A previous report assesses our progress to date on the Eyes On the Ground project, and reviews lessons learned [1]. In this report, we address the implications of those lessons in defining the most productive path forward for the remainder of the project. We propose two main concepts: Interactive Diagnosis and Model-Driven Assistance. Among these, the Model-Driven Assistance concept appears the most promising. The Model-Driven Assistance concept is based on an approximate but useful model of a facility, which provides a unified representation for storing, viewing, and analyzing data that is known about the facility. This representation provides value tomore » both inspectors and IAEA headquarters, and facilitates communication between the two. The concept further includes a lightweight, portable field tool to aid the inspector in executing a variety of inspection tasks, including capture of images and 3-d scan data. We develop a detailed description of this concept, including its system components, functionality, and example use cases. The envisioned tool would provide value by reducing inspector cognitive load, streamlining inspection tasks, and facilitating communication between the inspector and teams at IAEA headquarters. We conclude by enumerating the top implementation priorities to pursue in the remaining limited time of the project. Approved for public release; further dissemination unlimited.« less

Data-Driven Learning of Q-Matrix

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Jingchen; Xu, Gongjun; Ying, Zhiliang

2012-01-01

The recent surge of interests in cognitive assessment has led to developments of novel statistical models for diagnostic classification. Central to many such models is the well-known "Q"-matrix, which specifies the item-attribute relationships. This article proposes a data-driven approach to identification of the "Q"-matrix and estimation of…

Pelagic Habitat Analysis Module (PHAM) for GIS Based Fisheries Decision Support

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiefer, D. A.; Armstrong, Edward M.; Harrison, D. P.; Hinton, M. G.; Kohin, S.; Snyder, S.; O'Brien, F. J.

2011-01-01

We have assembled a system that integrates satellite and model output with fisheries data We have developed tools that allow analysis of the interaction between species and key environmental variables Demonstrated the capacity to accurately map habitat of Thresher Sharks Alopias vulpinus & pelagicus. Their seasonal migration along the California Current is at least partly driven by the seasonal migration of sardine, key prey of the sharks.We have assembled a system that integrates satellite and model output with fisheries data We have developed tools that allow analysis of the interaction between species and key environmental variables Demonstrated the capacity to accurately map habitat of Thresher Sharks Alopias vulpinus nd pelagicus. Their seasonal migration along the California Current is at least partly driven by the seasonal migration of sardine, key prey of the sharks.

DeepDeath: Learning to predict the underlying cause of death with Big Data.

PubMed

Hassanzadeh, Hamid Reza; Ying Sha; Wang, May D

2017-07-01

Multiple cause-of-death data provides a valuable source of information that can be used to enhance health standards by predicting health related trajectories in societies with large populations. These data are often available in large quantities across U.S. states and require Big Data techniques to uncover complex hidden patterns. We design two different classes of models suitable for large-scale analysis of mortality data, a Hadoop-based ensemble of random forests trained over N-grams, and the DeepDeath, a deep classifier based on the recurrent neural network (RNN). We apply both classes to the mortality data provided by the National Center for Health Statistics and show that while both perform significantly better than the random classifier, the deep model that utilizes long short-term memory networks (LSTMs), surpasses the N-gram based models and is capable of learning the temporal aspect of the data without a need for building ad-hoc, expert-driven features.

Performance evaluation of four directional emissivity analytical models with thermal SAIL model and airborne images.

PubMed

Ren, Huazhong; Liu, Rongyuan; Yan, Guangjian; Li, Zhao-Liang; Qin, Qiming; Liu, Qiang; Nerry, Françoise

2015-04-06

Land surface emissivity is a crucial parameter in the surface status monitoring. This study aims at the evaluation of four directional emissivity models, including two bi-directional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) models and two gap-frequency-based models. Results showed that the kernel-driven BRDF model could well represent directional emissivity with an error less than 0.002, and was consequently used to retrieve emissivity with an accuracy of about 0.012 from an airborne multi-angular thermal infrared data set. Furthermore, we updated the cavity effect factor relating to multiple scattering inside canopy, which improved the performance of the gap-frequency-based models.

Signature-based search for delayed photons in exclusive photon plus missing transverse energy events from pp¯ collisions with s=1.96TeV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aaltonen, T.; Amerio, S.; Amidei, D.; Anastassov, A.; Annovi, A.; Antos, J.; Apollinari, G.; Appel, J. A.; Arisawa, T.; Artikov, A.; Asaadi, J.; Ashmanskas, W.; Auerbach, B.; Aurisano, A.; Azfar, F.; Badgett, W.; Bae, T.; Barbaro-Galtieri, A.; Barnes, V. E.; Barnett, B. A.; Barria, P.; Bartos, P.; Bauce, M.; Bedeschi, F.; Behari, S.; Bellettini, G.; Bellinger, J.; Benjamin, D.; Beretvas, A.; Bhatti, A.; Bland, K. R.; Blumenfeld, B.; Bocci, A.; Bodek, A.; Bortoletto, D.; Boudreau, J.; Boveia, A.; Brigliadori, L.; Bromberg, C.; Brucken, E.; Budagov, J.; Budd, H. S.; Burkett, K.; Busetto, G.; Bussey, P.; Butti, P.; Buzatu, A.; Calamba, A.; Camarda, S.; Campanelli, M.; Canelli, F.; Carls, B.; Carlsmith, D.; Carosi, R.; Carrillo, S.; Casal, B.; Casarsa, M.; Castro, A.; Catastini, P.; Cauz, D.; Cavaliere, V.; Cavalli-Sforza, M.; Cerri, A.; Cerrito, L.; Chen, Y. C.; Chertok, M.; Chiarelli, G.; Chlachidze, G.; Cho, K.; Chokheli, D.; Ciocci, M. A.; Clark, A.; Clarke, C.; Convery, M. E.; Conway, J.; Corbo, M.; Cordelli, M.; Cox, C. A.; Cox, D. J.; Cremonesi, M.; Cruz, D.; Cuevas, J.; Culbertson, R.; d'Ascenzo, N.; Datta, M.; De Barbaro, P.; Demortier, L.; Deninno, M.; d'Errico, M.; Devoto, F.; Di Canto, A.; Di Ruzza, B.; Dittmann, J. R.; D'Onofrio, M.; Donati, S.; Dorigo, M.; Driutti, A.; Ebina, K.; Edgar, R.; Elagin, A.; Erbacher, R.; Errede, S.; Esham, B.; Eusebi, R.; Farrington, S.; Fernández Ramos, J. P.; Field, R.; Flanagan, G.; Forrest, R.; Franklin, M.; Freeman, J. C.; Frisch, H.; Funakoshi, Y.; Garfinkel, A. F.; Garosi, P.; Gerberich, H.; Gerchtein, E.; Giagu, S.; Giakoumopoulou, V.; Gibson, K.; Ginsburg, C. M.; Giokaris, N.; Giromini, P.; Giurgiu, G.; Glagolev, V.; Glenzinski, D.; Gold, M.; Goldin, D.; Golossanov, A.; Gomez, G.; Gomez-Ceballos, G.; Goncharov, M.; González López, O.; Gorelov, I.; Goshaw, A. T.; Goulianos, K.; Gramellini, E.; Grinstein, S.; Grosso-Pilcher, C.; Group, R. C.; Guimaraes da Costa, J.; Hahn, S. R.; Han, J. Y.; Happacher, F.; Hara, K.; Hare, M.; Harr, R. F.; Harrington-Taber, T.; Hatakeyama, K.; Hays, C.; Heinrich, J.; Herndon, M.; Hocker, A.; Hong, Z.; Hopkins, W.; Hou, S.; Hughes, R. E.; Husemann, U.; Hussein, M.; Huston, J.; Introzzi, G.; Iori, M.; Ivanov, A.; James, E.; Jang, D.; Jayatilaka, B.; Jeon, E. J.; Jindariani, S.; Jones, M.; Joo, K. K.; Jun, S. Y.; Junk, T. R.; Kambeitz, M.; Kamon, T.; Karchin, P. E.; Kasmi, A.; Kato, Y.; Ketchum, W.; Keung, J.; Kilminster, B.; Kim, D. H.; Kim, H. S.; Kim, J. E.; Kim, M. J.; Kim, S. B.; Kim, S. H.; Kim, Y. J.; Kim, Y. K.; Kimura, N.; Kirby, M.; Knoepfel, K.; Kondo, K.; Kong, D. J.; Konigsberg, J.; Kotwal, A. V.; Kreps, M.; Kroll, J.; Kruse, M.; Kuhr, T.; Kurata, M.; Laasanen, A. T.; Lammel, S.; Lancaster, M.; Lannon, K.; Latino, G.; Lee, H. S.; Lee, J. S.; Leo, S.; Leone, S.; Lewis, J. D.; Limosani, A.; Lipeles, E.; Lister, A.; Liu, H.; Liu, Q.; Liu, T.; Lockwitz, S.; Loginov, A.; Lucà, A.; Lucchesi, D.; Lueck, J.; Lujan, P.; Lukens, P.; Lungu, G.; Lys, J.; Lysak, R.; Madrak, R.; Maestro, P.; Malik, S.; Manca, G.; Manousakis-Katsikakis, A.; Margaroli, F.; Marino, P.; Martínez, M.; Matera, K.; Mattson, M. E.; Mazzacane, A.; Mazzanti, P.; McNulty, R.; Mehta, A.; Mehtala, P.; Mesropian, C.; Miao, T.; Mietlicki, D.; Mitra, A.; Miyake, H.; Moed, S.; Moggi, N.; Moon, C. S.; Moore, R.; Morello, M. J.; Mukherjee, A.; Muller, Th.; Murat, P.; Mussini, M.; Nachtman, J.; Nagai, Y.; Naganoma, J.; Nakano, I.; Napier, A.; Nett, J.; Neu, C.; Nigmanov, T.; Nodulman, L.; Noh, S. Y.; Norniella, O.; Oakes, L.; Oh, S. H.; Oh, Y. D.; Oksuzian, I.; Okusawa, T.; Orava, R.; Ortolan, L.; Pagliarone, C.; Palencia, E.; Palni, P.; Papadimitriou, V.; Parker, W.; Pauletta, G.; Paulini, M.; Paus, C.; Phillips, T. J.; Piacentino, G.; Pianori, E.; Pilot, J.; Pitts, K.; Plager, C.; Pondrom, L.; Poprocki, S.; Potamianos, K.; Pranko, A.; Prokoshin, F.; Ptohos, F.; Punzi, G.; Ranjan, N.; Redondo Fernández, I.; Renton, P.; Rescigno, M.; Rimondi, F.; Ristori, L.; Robson, A.; Rodriguez, T.; Rolli, S.; Ronzani, M.; Roser, R.; Rosner, J. L.; Ruffini, F.; Ruiz, A.; Russ, J.; Rusu, V.; Sakumoto, W. K.; Sakurai, Y.; Santi, L.; Sato, K.; Saveliev, V.; Savoy-Navarro, A.; Schlabach, P.; Schmidt, E. E.; Schwarz, T.; Scodellaro, L.; Scuri, F.; Seidel, S.; Seiya, Y.; Semenov, A.; Sforza, F.; Shalhout, S. Z.; Shears, T.; Shepard, P. F.; Shimojima, M.; Shochet, M.; Shreyber-Tecker, I.; Simonenko, A.; Sinervo, P.; Sliwa, K.; Smith, J. R.; Snider, F. D.; Song, H.; Sorin, V.; Stancari, M.; Denis, R. St.; Stelzer, B.; Stelzer-Chilton, O.; Stentz, D.; Strologas, J.; Sudo, Y.; Sukhanov, A.; Suslov, I.; Takemasa, K.; Takeuchi, Y.; Tang, J.; Tecchio, M.; Teng, P. K.; Thom, J.; Thomson, E.; Thukral, V.; Toback, D.; Tokar, S.; Tollefson, K.; Tomura, T.; Tonelli, D.; Torre, S.; Torretta, D.; Totaro, P.; Trovato, M.; Ukegawa, F.; Uozumi, S.; Vázquez, F.; Velev, G.; Vellidis, C.; Vernieri, C.; Vidal, M.; Vilar, R.; Vizán, J.; Vogel, M.; Volpi, G.; Wagner, P.; Wallny, R.; Wang, S. M.; Warburton, A.; Waters, D.; Wester, W. C., III; Whiteson, D.; Wicklund, A. B.; Wilbur, S.; Williams, H. H.; Wilson, J. S.; Wilson, P.; Winer, B. L.; Wittich, P.; Wolbers, S.; Wolfe, H.; Wright, T.; Wu, X.; Wu, Z.; Yamamoto, K.; Yamato, D.; Yang, T.; Yang, U. K.; Yang, Y. C.; Yao, W.-M.; Yeh, G. P.; Yi, K.; Yoh, J.; Yorita, K.; Yoshida, T.; Yu, G. B.; Yu, I.; Zanetti, A. M.; Zeng, Y.; Zhou, C.; Zucchelli, S.

2013-08-01

We present the first signature-based search for delayed photons using an exclusive photon plus missing transverse energy final state. Events are reconstructed in a data sample from the CDF II detector corresponding to 6.3fb-1 of integrated luminosity from s=1.96TeV proton-antiproton collisions. Candidate events are selected if they contain a photon with an arrival time in the detector larger than expected from a promptly produced photon. The mean number of events from standard model sources predicted by the data-driven background model based on the photon timing distribution is 286±24. A total of 322 events are observed. A p value of 12% is obtained, showing consistency of the data with standard model predictions.

A Curriculum Experiment in Climate Change Education Using and Integrated Approach of Content Knowledge Instruction and Student-Driven Research to Promote Civic Engagement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, P. E.; Heinrichs, J. F.

2009-12-01

One of the greatest challenges facing the world is climate change. Coupled with this challenge is an under-informed population that has not received a rigorous education about climate change other than what is available through the media. Fort Hays State University is piloting a course on climate change targeted to students early in their academic careers. The course is modeled after our past work (NSF DUE-0088818) of integrating content knowledge instruction and student-driven research where there was a positive correlation between student research engagement and student knowledge gains. The current course, based on prior findings, utilizes a mix of inquiry-based instruction, problem-based learning, and student-driven research to educate and engage the students in understanding climate change. The course was collaboratively developed by a geoscientist and science educator both of whom are active in citizen science programs. The emphasis on civic engagement by students is reflected in the course structure. The course model is unique in that 50% of the course is dedicated to developing core knowledge and technical skills (e.g. critical analysis, writing, data acquisition, data representation, and research design), and 50% to conducting a research project using available data sets from federal agencies and research groups. A key element of the course is a focus on local and regional data sets to make climate change relevant to the students. The research serves as a means of civic engagement by the students as they are tasked to understand their role in communicating their research findings to the community and coping with the local and regional changes they find through their research.

WIFIRE Data Model and Catalog for Wildfire Data and Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altintas, I.; Crawl, D.; Cowart, C.; Gupta, A.; Block, J.; de Callafon, R.

2014-12-01

The WIFIRE project (wifire.ucsd.edu) is building an end-to-end cyberinfrastructure for real-time and data-driven simulation, prediction and visualization of wildfire behavior. WIFIRE may be used by wildfire management authorities in the future to predict wildfire rate of spread and direction, and assess the effectiveness of high-density sensor networks in improving fire and weather predictions. WIFIRE has created a data model for wildfire resources including sensed and archived data, sensors, satellites, cameras, modeling tools, workflows and social information including Twitter feeds. This data model and associated wildfire resource catalog includes a detailed description of the HPWREN sensor network, SDG&E's Mesonet, and NASA MODIS. In addition, the WIFIRE data-model describes how to integrate the data from multiple heterogeneous sources to provide detailed fire-related information. The data catalog describes 'Observables' captured by each instrument using multiple ontologies including OGC SensorML and NASA SWEET. Observables include measurements such as wind speed, air temperature, and relative humidity, as well as their accuracy and resolution. We have implemented a REST service for publishing to and querying from the catalog using Web Application Description Language (WADL). We are creating web-based user interfaces and mobile device Apps that use the REST interface for dissemination to wildfire modeling community and project partners covering academic, private, and government laboratories while generating value to emergency officials and the general public. Additionally, the Kepler scientific workflow system is instrumented to interact with this data catalog to access real-time streaming and archived wildfire data and stream it into dynamic data-driven wildfire models at scale.

Incorporating New Technologies Into Toxicity Testing and Risk Assessment: Moving From 21st Century Vision to a Data-Driven Framework

PubMed Central

Thomas, Russell S.

2013-01-01

Based on existing data and previous work, a series of studies is proposed as a basis toward a pragmatic early step in transforming toxicity testing. These studies were assembled into a data-driven framework that invokes successive tiers of testing with margin of exposure (MOE) as the primary metric. The first tier of the framework integrates data from high-throughput in vitro assays, in vitro-to-in vivo extrapolation (IVIVE) pharmacokinetic modeling, and exposure modeling. The in vitro assays are used to separate chemicals based on their relative selectivity in interacting with biological targets and identify the concentration at which these interactions occur. The IVIVE modeling converts in vitro concentrations into external dose for calculation of the point of departure (POD) and comparisons to human exposure estimates to yield a MOE. The second tier involves short-term in vivo studies, expanded pharmacokinetic evaluations, and refined human exposure estimates. The results from the second tier studies provide more accurate estimates of the POD and the MOE. The third tier contains the traditional animal studies currently used to assess chemical safety. In each tier, the POD for selective chemicals is based primarily on endpoints associated with a proposed mode of action, whereas the POD for nonselective chemicals is based on potential biological perturbation. Based on the MOE, a significant percentage of chemicals evaluated in the first 2 tiers could be eliminated from further testing. The framework provides a risk-based and animal-sparing approach to evaluate chemical safety, drawing broadly from previous experience but incorporating technological advances to increase efficiency. PMID:23958734

Data driven CAN node reliability assessment for manufacturing system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Leiming; Yuan, Yong; Lei, Yong

2017-01-01

The reliability of the Controller Area Network(CAN) is critical to the performance and safety of the system. However, direct bus-off time assessment tools are lacking in practice due to inaccessibility of the node information and the complexity of the node interactions upon errors. In order to measure the mean time to bus-off(MTTB) of all the nodes, a novel data driven node bus-off time assessment method for CAN network is proposed by directly using network error information. First, the corresponding network error event sequence for each node is constructed using multiple-layer network error information. Then, the generalized zero inflated Poisson process(GZIP) model is established for each node based on the error event sequence. Finally, the stochastic model is constructed to predict the MTTB of the node. The accelerated case studies with different error injection rates are conducted on a laboratory network to demonstrate the proposed method, where the network errors are generated by a computer controlled error injection system. Experiment results show that the MTTB of nodes predicted by the proposed method agree well with observations in the case studies. The proposed data driven node time to bus-off assessment method for CAN networks can successfully predict the MTTB of nodes by directly using network error event data.

Firn Thickness Changes (1982-2015) Driven by SMB from MERRA-2, RACMO2.3, ERA-Int and AVHRR Surface Temperature and the Impacts to Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Balance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Medley, B.; Neumann, T.; Smith, B. E.; Luthcke, S. B.; Zwally, H. J.

2016-12-01

Surface mass balance (SMB) data are essential in the derivation of ice sheet mass balance. This is because ice sheet mass change consists of short-term and long-term variations. The short-term variations are directly given by the SMB data. For altimetry based ice sheet mass balance studies, these short-term mass changes are converted to firn thickness changes by using a firn densification-elevation model, and then the variations are subtracted from the altimetry measurements to give the long-term ice thickness changes that are associated with the density of ice. So far various SMB data sets such as ERA-Interim, RACMO and MERRA are available and some have been widely used in large number of ice sheet mass balance studies. However theses data sets exhibit the clear discrepancies in both random and systematic manner. In this study, we use our time dependent firn densification- elevation model, driven by the SMB data from MERRA-2, RACMO2.3 and ERA-Int for the period of 1982-2015 and the temperature variations from AVHRR for the same period to examine the corresponding firn thickness variations and the impacts to the mass changes over the Greenland ice sheet. The model was initialized with the1980's climate. Our results show that the relative smaller (centimeter level) differences in the firn thickness driven by the different data set occur at the early stage (1980's) of the model run. As the time progressing, the discrepancies between the SMB data sets accumulate, and the corresponding firn thickness differences quickly become larger with the value > 2m at the end of the period. Although the overall rates for the whole period driven by each of the three data sets are small ranging -0.2 - 0.2 cm a-1 (-3.0-2.7 Gt a-1), the decadal rates can vary greatly with magnitude > 3 cm a-1 and the impact to the Greenland mass change exceeds 30 Gt a-1.

Task-Driven Optimization of Fluence Field and Regularization for Model-Based Iterative Reconstruction in Computed Tomography.

PubMed

Gang, Grace J; Siewerdsen, Jeffrey H; Stayman, J Webster

2017-12-01

This paper presents a joint optimization of dynamic fluence field modulation (FFM) and regularization in quadratic penalized-likelihood reconstruction that maximizes a task-based imaging performance metric. We adopted a task-driven imaging framework for prospective designs of the imaging parameters. A maxi-min objective function was adopted to maximize the minimum detectability index ( ) throughout the image. The optimization algorithm alternates between FFM (represented by low-dimensional basis functions) and local regularization (including the regularization strength and directional penalty weights). The task-driven approach was compared with three FFM strategies commonly proposed for FBP reconstruction (as well as a task-driven TCM strategy) for a discrimination task in an abdomen phantom. The task-driven FFM assigned more fluence to less attenuating anteroposterior views and yielded approximately constant fluence behind the object. The optimal regularization was almost uniform throughout image. Furthermore, the task-driven FFM strategy redistribute fluence across detector elements in order to prescribe more fluence to the more attenuating central region of the phantom. Compared with all strategies, the task-driven FFM strategy not only improved minimum by at least 17.8%, but yielded higher over a large area inside the object. The optimal FFM was highly dependent on the amount of regularization, indicating the importance of a joint optimization. Sample reconstructions of simulated data generally support the performance estimates based on computed . The improvements in detectability show the potential of the task-driven imaging framework to improve imaging performance at a fixed dose, or, equivalently, to provide a similar level of performance at reduced dose.

A weather-driven model of malaria transmission

PubMed Central

Hoshen, Moshe B; Morse, Andrew P

2004-01-01

Background Climate is a major driving force behind malaria transmission and climate data are often used to account for the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in malaria transmission. Methods This paper describes a mathematical-biological model of the parasite dynamics, comprising both the weather-dependent within-vector stages and the weather-independent within-host stages. Results Numerical evaluations of the model in both time and space show that it qualitatively reconstructs the prevalence of infection. Conclusion A process-based modelling structure has been developed that may be suitable for the simulation of malaria forecasts based on seasonal weather forecasts. PMID:15350206

Community Coordinated Modeling Center Support of Science Needs for Integrated Data Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuznetsova, M. M.; Hesse, M.; Rastatter, L.; Maddox, M.

2007-01-01

Space science models are essential component of integrated data environment. Space science models are indispensable tools to facilitate effective use of wide variety of distributed scientific sources and to place multi-point local measurements into global context. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) hosts a set of state-of-the- art space science models ranging from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The majority of models residing at CCMC are comprehensive computationally intensive physics-based models. To allow the models to be driven by data relevant to particular events, the CCMC developed an online data file generation tool that automatically downloads data from data providers and transforms them to required format. CCMC provides a tailored web-based visualization interface for the model output, as well as the capability to download simulations output in portable standard format with comprehensive metadata and user-friendly model output analysis library of routines that can be called from any C supporting language. CCMC is developing data interpolation tools that enable to present model output in the same format as observations. CCMC invite community comments and suggestions to better address science needs for the integrated data environment.

Time-driven activity-based costing to identify opportunities for cost reduction in pediatric appendectomy.

PubMed

Yu, Yangyang R; Abbas, Paulette I; Smith, Carolyn M; Carberry, Kathleen E; Ren, Hui; Patel, Binita; Nuchtern, Jed G; Lopez, Monica E

2016-12-01

As reimbursement programs shift to value-based payment models emphasizing quality and efficient healthcare delivery, there exists a need to better understand process management to unearth true costs of patient care. We sought to identify cost-reduction opportunities in simple appendicitis management by applying a time-driven activity-based costing (TDABC) methodology to this high-volume surgical condition. Process maps were created using medical record time stamps. Labor capacity cost rates were calculated using national median physician salaries, weighted nurse-patient ratios, and hospital cost data. Consumable costs for supplies, pharmacy, laboratory, and food were derived from the hospital general ledger. Time-driven activity-based costing resulted in precise per-minute calculation of personnel costs. Highest costs were in the operating room ($747.07), hospital floor ($388.20), and emergency department ($296.21). Major contributors to length of stay were emergency department evaluation (270min), operating room availability (395min), and post-operative monitoring (1128min). The TDABC model led to $1712.16 in personnel costs and $1041.23 in consumable costs for a total appendicitis cost of $2753.39. Inefficiencies in healthcare delivery can be identified through TDABC. Triage-based standing delegation orders, advanced practice providers, and same day discharge protocols are proposed cost-reducing interventions to optimize value-based care for simple appendicitis. II. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Model-driven approach to data collection and reporting for quality improvement

PubMed Central

Curcin, Vasa; Woodcock, Thomas; Poots, Alan J.; Majeed, Azeem; Bell, Derek

2014-01-01

Continuous data collection and analysis have been shown essential to achieving improvement in healthcare. However, the data required for local improvement initiatives are often not readily available from hospital Electronic Health Record (EHR) systems or not routinely collected. Furthermore, improvement teams are often restricted in time and funding thus requiring inexpensive and rapid tools to support their work. Hence, the informatics challenge in healthcare local improvement initiatives consists of providing a mechanism for rapid modelling of the local domain by non-informatics experts, including performance metric definitions, and grounded in established improvement techniques. We investigate the feasibility of a model-driven software approach to address this challenge, whereby an improvement model designed by a team is used to automatically generate required electronic data collection instruments and reporting tools. To that goal, we have designed a generic Improvement Data Model (IDM) to capture the data items and quality measures relevant to the project, and constructed Web Improvement Support in Healthcare (WISH), a prototype tool that takes user-generated IDM models and creates a data schema, data collection web interfaces, and a set of live reports, based on Statistical Process Control (SPC) for use by improvement teams. The software has been successfully used in over 50 improvement projects, with more than 700 users. We present in detail the experiences of one of those initiatives, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease project in Northwest London hospitals. The specific challenges of improvement in healthcare are analysed and the benefits and limitations of the approach are discussed. PMID:24874182

Data-driven non-Markovian closure models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kondrashov, Dmitri; Chekroun, Mickaël D.; Ghil, Michael

2015-03-01

This paper has two interrelated foci: (i) obtaining stable and efficient data-driven closure models by using a multivariate time series of partial observations from a large-dimensional system; and (ii) comparing these closure models with the optimal closures predicted by the Mori-Zwanzig (MZ) formalism of statistical physics. Multilayer stochastic models (MSMs) are introduced as both a generalization and a time-continuous limit of existing multilevel, regression-based approaches to closure in a data-driven setting; these approaches include empirical model reduction (EMR), as well as more recent multi-layer modeling. It is shown that the multilayer structure of MSMs can provide a natural Markov approximation to the generalized Langevin equation (GLE) of the MZ formalism. A simple correlation-based stopping criterion for an EMR-MSM model is derived to assess how well it approximates the GLE solution. Sufficient conditions are derived on the structure of the nonlinear cross-interactions between the constitutive layers of a given MSM to guarantee the existence of a global random attractor. This existence ensures that no blow-up can occur for a broad class of MSM applications, a class that includes non-polynomial predictors and nonlinearities that do not necessarily preserve quadratic energy invariants. The EMR-MSM methodology is first applied to a conceptual, nonlinear, stochastic climate model of coupled slow and fast variables, in which only slow variables are observed. It is shown that the resulting closure model with energy-conserving nonlinearities efficiently captures the main statistical features of the slow variables, even when there is no formal scale separation and the fast variables are quite energetic. Second, an MSM is shown to successfully reproduce the statistics of a partially observed, generalized Lotka-Volterra model of population dynamics in its chaotic regime. The challenges here include the rarity of strange attractors in the model's parameter space and the existence of multiple attractor basins with fractal boundaries. The positivity constraint on the solutions' components replaces here the quadratic-energy-preserving constraint of fluid-flow problems and it successfully prevents blow-up.

A new costing model in hospital management: time-driven activity-based costing system.

PubMed

Öker, Figen; Özyapıcı, Hasan

2013-01-01

Traditional cost systems cause cost distortions because they cannot meet the requirements of today's businesses. Therefore, a new and more effective cost system is needed. Consequently, time-driven activity-based costing system has emerged. The unit cost of supplying capacity and the time needed to perform an activity are the only 2 factors considered by the system. Furthermore, this system determines unused capacity by considering practical capacity. The purpose of this article is to emphasize the efficiency of the time-driven activity-based costing system and to display how it can be applied in a health care institution. A case study was conducted in a private hospital in Cyprus. Interviews and direct observations were used to collect the data. The case study revealed that the cost of unused capacity is allocated to both open and laparoscopic (closed) surgeries. Thus, by using the time-driven activity-based costing system, managers should eliminate the cost of unused capacity so as to obtain better results. Based on the results of the study, hospital management is better able to understand the costs of different surgeries. In addition, managers can easily notice the cost of unused capacity and decide how many employees to be dismissed or directed to other productive areas.

A GIS-based Model for Natural Gas Data Conversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bitik, E.; Seker, D. Z.; Denli, H. H.

2014-12-01

In Turkey gas utility sector has undergone major changes in terms of increased competition between gas providers, efforts in improving services, and applying new technological solutions. This paper discusses the challenges met by gas companies to switch from long workflows of gas distribution, sales and maintenance into IT driven efficient management of complex information both spatially and non-spatially. The aim of this study is migration of all gas data and information into a GIS environment in order to manage and operate all infrastructure investments with a Utility Management System. All data conversion model for migration was designed and tested during the study. A flowchart is formed to transfer the old data layers to the new structure based on geodatabase.

Weakly Nonlinear Model with Exact Coefficients for the Fluttering and Spiraling Motion of Buoyancy-Driven Bodies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tchoufag, Joël; Fabre, David; Magnaudet, Jacques

2015-09-01

Gravity- or buoyancy-driven bodies moving in a slightly viscous fluid frequently follow fluttering or helical paths. Current models of such systems are largely empirical and fail to predict several of the key features of their evolution, especially close to the onset of path instability. Here, using a weakly nonlinear expansion of the full set of governing equations, we present a new generic reduced-order model based on a pair of amplitude equations with exact coefficients that drive the evolution of the first pair of unstable modes. We show that the predictions of this model for the style (e.g., fluttering or spiraling) and characteristics (e.g., frequency and maximum inclination angle) of path oscillations compare well with various recent data for both solid disks and air bubbles.

A weakly nonlinear model with exact coefficients for the fluttering and spiraling motions of buoyancy-driven bodies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magnaudet, Jacques; Tchoufag, Joel; Fabre, David

2015-11-01

Gravity/buoyancy-driven bodies moving in a slightly viscous fluid frequently follow fluttering or helical paths. Current models of such systems are largely empirical and fail to predict several of the key features of their evolution, especially close to the onset of path instability. Using a weakly nonlinear expansion of the full set of governing equations, we derive a new generic reduced-order model of this class of phenomena based on a pair of amplitude equations with exact coefficients that drive the evolution of the first pair of unstable modes. We show that the predictions of this model for the style (eg. fluttering or spiraling) and characteristics (eg. frequency and maximum inclination angle) of path oscillations compare well with various recent data for both solid disks and air bubbles.

Towards a generalized energy prediction model for machine tools

PubMed Central

Bhinge, Raunak; Park, Jinkyoo; Law, Kincho H.; Dornfeld, David A.; Helu, Moneer; Rachuri, Sudarsan

2017-01-01

Energy prediction of machine tools can deliver many advantages to a manufacturing enterprise, ranging from energy-efficient process planning to machine tool monitoring. Physics-based, energy prediction models have been proposed in the past to understand the energy usage pattern of a machine tool. However, uncertainties in both the machine and the operating environment make it difficult to predict the energy consumption of the target machine reliably. Taking advantage of the opportunity to collect extensive, contextual, energy-consumption data, we discuss a data-driven approach to develop an energy prediction model of a machine tool in this paper. First, we present a methodology that can efficiently and effectively collect and process data extracted from a machine tool and its sensors. We then present a data-driven model that can be used to predict the energy consumption of the machine tool for machining a generic part. Specifically, we use Gaussian Process (GP) Regression, a non-parametric machine-learning technique, to develop the prediction model. The energy prediction model is then generalized over multiple process parameters and operations. Finally, we apply this generalized model with a method to assess uncertainty intervals to predict the energy consumed to machine any part using a Mori Seiki NVD1500 machine tool. Furthermore, the same model can be used during process planning to optimize the energy-efficiency of a machining process. PMID:28652687

Towards a generalized energy prediction model for machine tools.

PubMed

Bhinge, Raunak; Park, Jinkyoo; Law, Kincho H; Dornfeld, David A; Helu, Moneer; Rachuri, Sudarsan

2017-04-01

Energy prediction of machine tools can deliver many advantages to a manufacturing enterprise, ranging from energy-efficient process planning to machine tool monitoring. Physics-based, energy prediction models have been proposed in the past to understand the energy usage pattern of a machine tool. However, uncertainties in both the machine and the operating environment make it difficult to predict the energy consumption of the target machine reliably. Taking advantage of the opportunity to collect extensive, contextual, energy-consumption data, we discuss a data-driven approach to develop an energy prediction model of a machine tool in this paper. First, we present a methodology that can efficiently and effectively collect and process data extracted from a machine tool and its sensors. We then present a data-driven model that can be used to predict the energy consumption of the machine tool for machining a generic part. Specifically, we use Gaussian Process (GP) Regression, a non-parametric machine-learning technique, to develop the prediction model. The energy prediction model is then generalized over multiple process parameters and operations. Finally, we apply this generalized model with a method to assess uncertainty intervals to predict the energy consumed to machine any part using a Mori Seiki NVD1500 machine tool. Furthermore, the same model can be used during process planning to optimize the energy-efficiency of a machining process.

General Purpose Data-Driven Monitoring for Space Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iverson, David L.; Martin, Rodney A.; Schwabacher, Mark A.; Spirkovska, Liljana; Taylor, William McCaa; Castle, Joseph P.; Mackey, Ryan M.

2009-01-01

As modern space propulsion and exploration systems improve in capability and efficiency, their designs are becoming increasingly sophisticated and complex. Determining the health state of these systems, using traditional parameter limit checking, model-based, or rule-based methods, is becoming more difficult as the number of sensors and component interactions grow. Data-driven monitoring techniques have been developed to address these issues by analyzing system operations data to automatically characterize normal system behavior. System health can be monitored by comparing real-time operating data with these nominal characterizations, providing detection of anomalous data signatures indicative of system faults or failures. The Inductive Monitoring System (IMS) is a data-driven system health monitoring software tool that has been successfully applied to several aerospace applications. IMS uses a data mining technique called clustering to analyze archived system data and characterize normal interactions between parameters. The scope of IMS based data-driven monitoring applications continues to expand with current development activities. Successful IMS deployment in the International Space Station (ISS) flight control room to monitor ISS attitude control systems has led to applications in other ISS flight control disciplines, such as thermal control. It has also generated interest in data-driven monitoring capability for Constellation, NASA's program to replace the Space Shuttle with new launch vehicles and spacecraft capable of returning astronauts to the moon, and then on to Mars. Several projects are currently underway to evaluate and mature the IMS technology and complementary tools for use in the Constellation program. These include an experiment on board the Air Force TacSat-3 satellite, and ground systems monitoring for NASA's Ares I-X and Ares I launch vehicles. The TacSat-3 Vehicle System Management (TVSM) project is a software experiment to integrate fault and anomaly detection algorithms and diagnosis tools with executive and adaptive planning functions contained in the flight software on-board the Air Force Research Laboratory TacSat-3 satellite. The TVSM software package will be uploaded after launch to monitor spacecraft subsystems such as power and guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C). It will analyze data in real-time to demonstrate detection of faults and unusual conditions, diagnose problems, and react to threats to spacecraft health and mission goals. The experiment will demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of integrated system health management (ISHM) technologies with both ground and on-board experiments.

Evaluation of axial pile bearing capacity based on pile driving analyzer (PDA) test using Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maizir, H.; Suryanita, R.

2018-01-01

A few decades, many methods have been developed to predict and evaluate the bearing capacity of driven piles. The problem of the predicting and assessing the bearing capacity of the pile is very complicated and not yet established, different soil testing and evaluation produce a widely different solution. However, the most important thing is to determine methods used to predict and evaluate the bearing capacity of the pile to the required degree of accuracy and consistency value. Accurate prediction and evaluation of axial bearing capacity depend on some variables, such as the type of soil, diameter, and length of pile, etc. The aims of the study of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are utilized to obtain more accurate and consistent axial bearing capacity of a driven pile. ANNs can be described as mapping an input to the target output data. The method using the ANN model developed to predict and evaluate the axial bearing capacity of the pile based on the pile driving analyzer (PDA) test data for more than 200 selected data. The results of the predictions obtained by the ANN model and the PDA test were then compared. This research as the neural network models give a right prediction and evaluation of the axial bearing capacity of piles using neural networks.

Advances in Optical Fiber-Based Faraday Rotation Diagnostics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

White, A D; McHale, G B; Goerz, D A

2009-07-27

In the past two years, we have used optical fiber-based Faraday Rotation Diagnostics (FRDs) to measure pulsed currents on several dozen capacitively driven and explosively driven pulsed power experiments. We have made simplifications to the necessary hardware for quadrature-encoded polarization analysis, including development of an all-fiber analysis scheme. We have developed a numerical model that is useful for predicting and quantifying deviations from the ideal diagnostic response. We have developed a method of analyzing quadrature-encoded FRD data that is simple to perform and offers numerous advantages over several existing methods. When comparison has been possible, we have seen good agreementmore » with our FRDs and other current sensors.« less

Agent-Based Modeling of Cancer Stem Cell Driven Solid Tumor Growth.

PubMed

Poleszczuk, Jan; Macklin, Paul; Enderling, Heiko

2016-01-01

Computational modeling of tumor growth has become an invaluable tool to simulate complex cell-cell interactions and emerging population-level dynamics. Agent-based models are commonly used to describe the behavior and interaction of individual cells in different environments. Behavioral rules can be informed and calibrated by in vitro assays, and emerging population-level dynamics may be validated with both in vitro and in vivo experiments. Here, we describe the design and implementation of a lattice-based agent-based model of cancer stem cell driven tumor growth.

Evaluating the Sensitivity of Agricultural Model Performance to Different Climate Inputs: Supplemental Material

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glotter, Michael J.; Ruane, Alex C.; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Elliott, Joshua W.

2015-01-01

Projections of future food production necessarily rely on models, which must themselves be validated through historical assessments comparing modeled and observed yields. Reliable historical validation requires both accurate agricultural models and accurate climate inputs. Problems with either may compromise the validation exercise. Previous studies have compared the effects of different climate inputs on agricultural projections but either incompletely or without a ground truth of observed yields that would allow distinguishing errors due to climate inputs from those intrinsic to the crop model. This study is a systematic evaluation of the reliability of a widely used crop model for simulating U.S. maize yields when driven by multiple observational data products. The parallelized Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (pDSSAT) is driven with climate inputs from multiple sources reanalysis, reanalysis that is bias corrected with observed climate, and a control dataset and compared with observed historical yields. The simulations show that model output is more accurate when driven by any observation-based precipitation product than when driven by non-bias-corrected reanalysis. The simulations also suggest, in contrast to previous studies, that biased precipitation distribution is significant for yields only in arid regions. Some issues persist for all choices of climate inputs: crop yields appear to be oversensitive to precipitation fluctuations but under sensitive to floods and heat waves. These results suggest that the most important issue for agricultural projections may be not climate inputs but structural limitations in the crop models themselves.

Evaluating the sensitivity of agricultural model performance to different climate inputs

PubMed Central

Glotter, Michael J.; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Ruane, Alex C.; Elliott, Joshua W.

2017-01-01

Projections of future food production necessarily rely on models, which must themselves be validated through historical assessments comparing modeled to observed yields. Reliable historical validation requires both accurate agricultural models and accurate climate inputs. Problems with either may compromise the validation exercise. Previous studies have compared the effects of different climate inputs on agricultural projections, but either incompletely or without a ground truth of observed yields that would allow distinguishing errors due to climate inputs from those intrinsic to the crop model. This study is a systematic evaluation of the reliability of a widely-used crop model for simulating U.S. maize yields when driven by multiple observational data products. The parallelized Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (pDSSAT) is driven with climate inputs from multiple sources – reanalysis, reanalysis bias-corrected with observed climate, and a control dataset – and compared to observed historical yields. The simulations show that model output is more accurate when driven by any observation-based precipitation product than when driven by un-bias-corrected reanalysis. The simulations also suggest, in contrast to previous studies, that biased precipitation distribution is significant for yields only in arid regions. However, some issues persist for all choices of climate inputs: crop yields appear oversensitive to precipitation fluctuations but undersensitive to floods and heat waves. These results suggest that the most important issue for agricultural projections may be not climate inputs but structural limitations in the crop models themselves. PMID:29097985

A perspective on bridging scales and design of models using low-dimensional manifolds and data-driven model inference

PubMed Central

Zenil, Hector; Kiani, Narsis A.; Ball, Gordon; Gomez-Cabrero, David

2016-01-01

Systems in nature capable of collective behaviour are nonlinear, operating across several scales. Yet our ability to account for their collective dynamics differs in physics, chemistry and biology. Here, we briefly review the similarities and differences between mathematical modelling of adaptive living systems versus physico-chemical systems. We find that physics-based chemistry modelling and computational neuroscience have a shared interest in developing techniques for model reductions aiming at the identification of a reduced subsystem or slow manifold, capturing the effective dynamics. By contrast, as relations and kinetics between biological molecules are less characterized, current quantitative analysis under the umbrella of bioinformatics focuses on signal extraction, correlation, regression and machine-learning analysis. We argue that model reduction analysis and the ensuing identification of manifolds bridges physics and biology. Furthermore, modelling living systems presents deep challenges as how to reconcile rich molecular data with inherent modelling uncertainties (formalism, variables selection and model parameters). We anticipate a new generative data-driven modelling paradigm constrained by identified governing principles extracted from low-dimensional manifold analysis. The rise of a new generation of models will ultimately connect biology to quantitative mechanistic descriptions, thereby setting the stage for investigating the character of the model language and principles driving living systems. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Multiscale modelling at the physics–chemistry–biology interface’. PMID:27698038

Autonomous Soil Assessment System: A Data-Driven Approach to Planetary Mobility Hazard Detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raimalwala, K.; Faragalli, M.; Reid, E.

2018-04-01

The Autonomous Soil Assessment System predicts mobility hazards for rovers. Its development and performance are presented, with focus on its data-driven models, machine learning algorithms, and real-time sensor data fusion for predictive analytics.

Combinatorial and High Throughput Discovery of High Temperature Piezoelectric Ceramics

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-10-10

the known candidate piezoelectric ferroelectric perovskites. Unlike most computational studies on crystal chemistry, where the starting point is some...studies on crystal chemistry, where the starting point is some form of electronic structure calculation, we use a data driven approach to initiate our...experimental measurements reported in the literature. Given that our models are based solely on crystal and electronic structure data and did not

Machine learning classification of medication adherence in patients with movement disorders using non-wearable sensors.

PubMed

Tucker, Conrad S; Behoora, Ishan; Nembhard, Harriet Black; Lewis, Mechelle; Sterling, Nicholas W; Huang, Xuemei

2015-11-01

Medication non-adherence is a major concern in the healthcare industry and has led to increases in health risks and medical costs. For many neurological diseases, adherence to medication regimens can be assessed by observing movement patterns. However, physician observations are typically assessed based on visual inspection of movement and are limited to clinical testing procedures. Consequently, medication adherence is difficult to measure when patients are away from the clinical setting. The authors propose a data mining driven methodology that uses low cost, non-wearable multimodal sensors to model and predict patients' adherence to medication protocols, based on variations in their gait. The authors conduct a study involving Parkinson's disease patients that are "on" and "off" their medication in order to determine the statistical validity of the methodology. The data acquired can then be used to quantify patients' adherence while away from the clinic. Accordingly, this data-driven system may allow for early warnings regarding patient safety. Using whole-body movement data readings from the patients, the authors were able to discriminate between PD patients on and off medication, with accuracies greater than 97% for some patients using an individually customized model and accuracies of 78% for a generalized model containing multiple patient gait data. The proposed methodology and study demonstrate the potential and effectiveness of using low cost, non-wearable hardware and data mining models to monitor medication adherence outside of the traditional healthcare facility. These innovations may allow for cost effective, remote monitoring of treatment of neurological diseases. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Machine Learning Classification of Medication Adherence in Patients with Movement Disorders Using Non-Wearable Sensors

PubMed Central

Tucker, Conrad; Behoora, Ishan; Nembhard, Harriet Black; Lewis, Mechelle; Sterling, Nicholas W; Huang, Xuemei

2017-01-01

Medication non-adherence is a major concern in the healthcare industry and has led to increases in health risks and medical costs. For many neurological diseases, adherence to medication regimens can be assessed by observing movement patterns. However, physician observations are typically assessed based on visual inspection of movement and are limited to clinical testing procedures. Consequently, medication adherence is difficult to measure when patients are away from the clinical setting. The authors propose a data mining driven methodology that uses low cost, non-wearable multimodal sensors to model and predict patients’ adherence to medication protocols, based on variations in their gait. The authors conduct a study involving Parkinson’s Disease patients that are “on” and “off” their medication in order to determine the statistical validity of the methodology. The data acquired can then be used to quantify patients’ adherence while away from the clinic. Accordingly, this data-driven system may allow for early warnings regarding patient safety. Using whole-body movement data readings from the patients, the authors were able to discriminate between PD patients on and off medication, with accuracies greater than 97% for some patients using an individually customized model and accuracies of 78% for a generalized model containing multiple patient gait data. The proposed methodology and study demonstrate the potential and effectiveness of using low cost, non-wearable hardware and data mining models to monitor medication adherence outside of the traditional healthcare facility. These innovations may allow for cost effective, remote monitoring of treatment of neurological diseases. PMID:26406881

A hybrid PCA-CART-MARS-based prognostic approach of the remaining useful life for aircraft engines.

PubMed

Sánchez Lasheras, Fernando; García Nieto, Paulino José; de Cos Juez, Francisco Javier; Mayo Bayón, Ricardo; González Suárez, Victor Manuel

2015-03-23

Prognostics is an engineering discipline that predicts the future health of a system. In this research work, a data-driven approach for prognostics is proposed. Indeed, the present paper describes a data-driven hybrid model for the successful prediction of the remaining useful life of aircraft engines. The approach combines the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) technique with the principal component analysis (PCA), dendrograms and classification and regression trees (CARTs). Elements extracted from sensor signals are used to train this hybrid model, representing different levels of health for aircraft engines. In this way, this hybrid algorithm is used to predict the trends of these elements. Based on this fitting, one can determine the future health state of a system and estimate its remaining useful life (RUL) with accuracy. To evaluate the proposed approach, a test was carried out using aircraft engine signals collected from physical sensors (temperature, pressure, speed, fuel flow, etc.). Simulation results show that the PCA-CART-MARS-based approach can forecast faults long before they occur and can predict the RUL. The proposed hybrid model presents as its main advantage the fact that it does not require information about the previous operation states of the input variables of the engine. The performance of this model was compared with those obtained by other benchmark models (multivariate linear regression and artificial neural networks) also applied in recent years for the modeling of remaining useful life. Therefore, the PCA-CART-MARS-based approach is very promising in the field of prognostics of the RUL for aircraft engines.

A Hybrid PCA-CART-MARS-Based Prognostic Approach of the Remaining Useful Life for Aircraft Engines

PubMed Central

Lasheras, Fernando Sánchez; Nieto, Paulino José García; de Cos Juez, Francisco Javier; Bayón, Ricardo Mayo; Suárez, Victor Manuel González

2015-01-01

Prognostics is an engineering discipline that predicts the future health of a system. In this research work, a data-driven approach for prognostics is proposed. Indeed, the present paper describes a data-driven hybrid model for the successful prediction of the remaining useful life of aircraft engines. The approach combines the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) technique with the principal component analysis (PCA), dendrograms and classification and regression trees (CARTs). Elements extracted from sensor signals are used to train this hybrid model, representing different levels of health for aircraft engines. In this way, this hybrid algorithm is used to predict the trends of these elements. Based on this fitting, one can determine the future health state of a system and estimate its remaining useful life (RUL) with accuracy. To evaluate the proposed approach, a test was carried out using aircraft engine signals collected from physical sensors (temperature, pressure, speed, fuel flow, etc.). Simulation results show that the PCA-CART-MARS-based approach can forecast faults long before they occur and can predict the RUL. The proposed hybrid model presents as its main advantage the fact that it does not require information about the previous operation states of the input variables of the engine. The performance of this model was compared with those obtained by other benchmark models (multivariate linear regression and artificial neural networks) also applied in recent years for the modeling of remaining useful life. Therefore, the PCA-CART-MARS-based approach is very promising in the field of prognostics of the RUL for aircraft engines. PMID:25806876

The application of data mining and cloud computing techniques in data-driven models for structural health monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khazaeli, S.; Ravandi, A. G.; Banerji, S.; Bagchi, A.

2016-04-01

Recently, data-driven models for Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) have been of great interest among many researchers. In data-driven models, the sensed data are processed to determine the structural performance and evaluate the damages of an instrumented structure without necessitating the mathematical modeling of the structure. A framework of data-driven models for online assessment of the condition of a structure has been developed here. The developed framework is intended for automated evaluation of the monitoring data and structural performance by the Internet technology and resources. The main challenges in developing such framework include: (a) utilizing the sensor measurements to estimate and localize the induced damage in a structure by means of signal processing and data mining techniques, and (b) optimizing the computing and storage resources with the aid of cloud services. The main focus in this paper is to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed framework for real-time damage detection of a multi-story shear-building structure in two damage scenarios (change in mass and stiffness) in various locations. Several features are extracted from the sensed data by signal processing techniques and statistical methods. Machine learning algorithms are deployed to select damage-sensitive features as well as classifying the data to trace the anomaly in the response of the structure. Here, the cloud computing resources from Amazon Web Services (AWS) have been used to implement the proposed framework.

Initial Results from an Energy-Aware Airborne Dynamic, Data-Driven Application System Performing Sampling in Coherent Boundary-Layer Structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frew, E.; Argrow, B. M.; Houston, A. L.; Weiss, C.

2014-12-01

The energy-aware airborne dynamic, data-driven application system (EA-DDDAS) performs persistent sampling in complex atmospheric conditions by exploiting wind energy using the dynamic data-driven application system paradigm. The main challenge for future airborne sampling missions is operation with tight integration of physical and computational resources over wireless communication networks, in complex atmospheric conditions. The physical resources considered here include sensor platforms, particularly mobile Doppler radar and unmanned aircraft, the complex conditions in which they operate, and the region of interest. Autonomous operation requires distributed computational effort connected by layered wireless communication. Onboard decision-making and coordination algorithms can be enhanced by atmospheric models that assimilate input from physics-based models and wind fields derived from multiple sources. These models are generally too complex to be run onboard the aircraft, so they need to be executed in ground vehicles in the field, and connected over broadband or other wireless links back to the field. Finally, the wind field environment drives strong interaction between the computational and physical systems, both as a challenge to autonomous path planning algorithms and as a novel energy source that can be exploited to improve system range and endurance. Implementation details of a complete EA-DDDAS will be provided, along with preliminary flight test results targeting coherent boundary-layer structures.

Model-Free Estimation of Tuning Curves and Their Attentional Modulation, Based on Sparse and Noisy Data.

PubMed

Helmer, Markus; Kozyrev, Vladislav; Stephan, Valeska; Treue, Stefan; Geisel, Theo; Battaglia, Demian

2016-01-01

Tuning curves are the functions that relate the responses of sensory neurons to various values within one continuous stimulus dimension (such as the orientation of a bar in the visual domain or the frequency of a tone in the auditory domain). They are commonly determined by fitting a model e.g. a Gaussian or other bell-shaped curves to the measured responses to a small subset of discrete stimuli in the relevant dimension. However, as neuronal responses are irregular and experimental measurements noisy, it is often difficult to determine reliably the appropriate model from the data. We illustrate this general problem by fitting diverse models to representative recordings from area MT in rhesus monkey visual cortex during multiple attentional tasks involving complex composite stimuli. We find that all models can be well-fitted, that the best model generally varies between neurons and that statistical comparisons between neuronal responses across different experimental conditions are affected quantitatively and qualitatively by specific model choices. As a robust alternative to an often arbitrary model selection, we introduce a model-free approach, in which features of interest are extracted directly from the measured response data without the need of fitting any model. In our attentional datasets, we demonstrate that data-driven methods provide descriptions of tuning curve features such as preferred stimulus direction or attentional gain modulations which are in agreement with fit-based approaches when a good fit exists. Furthermore, these methods naturally extend to the frequent cases of uncertain model selection. We show that model-free approaches can identify attentional modulation patterns, such as general alterations of the irregular shape of tuning curves, which cannot be captured by fitting stereotyped conventional models. Finally, by comparing datasets across different conditions, we demonstrate effects of attention that are cell- and even stimulus-specific. Based on these proofs-of-concept, we conclude that our data-driven methods can reliably extract relevant tuning information from neuronal recordings, including cells whose seemingly haphazard response curves defy conventional fitting approaches.

Model-Free Estimation of Tuning Curves and Their Attentional Modulation, Based on Sparse and Noisy Data

PubMed Central

Helmer, Markus; Kozyrev, Vladislav; Stephan, Valeska; Treue, Stefan; Geisel, Theo; Battaglia, Demian

2016-01-01

Tuning curves are the functions that relate the responses of sensory neurons to various values within one continuous stimulus dimension (such as the orientation of a bar in the visual domain or the frequency of a tone in the auditory domain). They are commonly determined by fitting a model e.g. a Gaussian or other bell-shaped curves to the measured responses to a small subset of discrete stimuli in the relevant dimension. However, as neuronal responses are irregular and experimental measurements noisy, it is often difficult to determine reliably the appropriate model from the data. We illustrate this general problem by fitting diverse models to representative recordings from area MT in rhesus monkey visual cortex during multiple attentional tasks involving complex composite stimuli. We find that all models can be well-fitted, that the best model generally varies between neurons and that statistical comparisons between neuronal responses across different experimental conditions are affected quantitatively and qualitatively by specific model choices. As a robust alternative to an often arbitrary model selection, we introduce a model-free approach, in which features of interest are extracted directly from the measured response data without the need of fitting any model. In our attentional datasets, we demonstrate that data-driven methods provide descriptions of tuning curve features such as preferred stimulus direction or attentional gain modulations which are in agreement with fit-based approaches when a good fit exists. Furthermore, these methods naturally extend to the frequent cases of uncertain model selection. We show that model-free approaches can identify attentional modulation patterns, such as general alterations of the irregular shape of tuning curves, which cannot be captured by fitting stereotyped conventional models. Finally, by comparing datasets across different conditions, we demonstrate effects of attention that are cell- and even stimulus-specific. Based on these proofs-of-concept, we conclude that our data-driven methods can reliably extract relevant tuning information from neuronal recordings, including cells whose seemingly haphazard response curves defy conventional fitting approaches. PMID:26785378

Robust PLS approach for KPI-related prediction and diagnosis against outliers and missing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Shen; Wang, Guang; Yang, Xu

2014-07-01

In practical industrial applications, the key performance indicator (KPI)-related prediction and diagnosis are quite important for the product quality and economic benefits. To meet these requirements, many advanced prediction and monitoring approaches have been developed which can be classified into model-based or data-driven techniques. Among these approaches, partial least squares (PLS) is one of the most popular data-driven methods due to its simplicity and easy implementation in large-scale industrial process. As PLS is totally based on the measured process data, the characteristics of the process data are critical for the success of PLS. Outliers and missing values are two common characteristics of the measured data which can severely affect the effectiveness of PLS. To ensure the applicability of PLS in practical industrial applications, this paper introduces a robust version of PLS to deal with outliers and missing values, simultaneously. The effectiveness of the proposed method is finally demonstrated by the application results of the KPI-related prediction and diagnosis on an industrial benchmark of Tennessee Eastman process.

Power-Law Modeling of Cancer Cell Fates Driven by Signaling Data to Reveal Drug Effects

PubMed Central

Zhang, Fan; Wu, Min; Kwoh, Chee Keong; Zheng, Jie

2016-01-01

Extracellular signals are captured and transmitted by signaling proteins inside a cell. An important type of cellular responses to the signals is the cell fate decision, e.g., apoptosis. However, the underlying mechanisms of cell fate regulation are still unclear, thus comprehensive and detailed kinetic models are not yet available. Alternatively, data-driven models are promising to bridge signaling data with the phenotypic measurements of cell fates. The traditional linear model for data-driven modeling of signaling pathways has its limitations because it assumes that the a cell fate is proportional to the activities of signaling proteins, which is unlikely in the complex biological systems. Therefore, we propose a power-law model to relate the activities of all the measured signaling proteins to the probabilities of cell fates. In our experiments, we compared our nonlinear power-law model with the linear model on three cancer datasets with phosphoproteomics and cell fate measurements, which demonstrated that the nonlinear model has superior performance on cell fates prediction. By in silico simulation of virtual protein knock-down, the proposed model is able to reveal drug effects which can complement traditional approaches such as binding affinity analysis. Moreover, our model is able to capture cell line specific information to distinguish one cell line from another in cell fate prediction. Our results show that the power-law data-driven model is able to perform better in cell fate prediction and provide more insights into the signaling pathways for cancer cell fates than the linear model. PMID:27764199

Building interpretable predictive models for pediatric hospital readmission using Tree-Lasso logistic regression.

PubMed

Jovanovic, Milos; Radovanovic, Sandro; Vukicevic, Milan; Van Poucke, Sven; Delibasic, Boris

2016-09-01

Quantification and early identification of unplanned readmission risk have the potential to improve the quality of care during hospitalization and after discharge. However, high dimensionality, sparsity, and class imbalance of electronic health data and the complexity of risk quantification, challenge the development of accurate predictive models. Predictive models require a certain level of interpretability in order to be applicable in real settings and create actionable insights. This paper aims to develop accurate and interpretable predictive models for readmission in a general pediatric patient population, by integrating a data-driven model (sparse logistic regression) and domain knowledge based on the international classification of diseases 9th-revision clinical modification (ICD-9-CM) hierarchy of diseases. Additionally, we propose a way to quantify the interpretability of a model and inspect the stability of alternative solutions. The analysis was conducted on >66,000 pediatric hospital discharge records from California, State Inpatient Databases, Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project between 2009 and 2011. We incorporated domain knowledge based on the ICD-9-CM hierarchy in a data driven, Tree-Lasso regularized logistic regression model, providing the framework for model interpretation. This approach was compared with traditional Lasso logistic regression resulting in models that are easier to interpret by fewer high-level diagnoses, with comparable prediction accuracy. The results revealed that the use of a Tree-Lasso model was as competitive in terms of accuracy (measured by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve-AUC) as the traditional Lasso logistic regression, but integration with the ICD-9-CM hierarchy of diseases provided more interpretable models in terms of high-level diagnoses. Additionally, interpretations of models are in accordance with existing medical understanding of pediatric readmission. Best performing models have similar performances reaching AUC values 0.783 and 0.779 for traditional Lasso and Tree-Lasso, respectfully. However, information loss of Lasso models is 0.35 bits higher compared to Tree-Lasso model. We propose a method for building predictive models applicable for the detection of readmission risk based on Electronic Health records. Integration of domain knowledge (in the form of ICD-9-CM taxonomy) and a data-driven, sparse predictive algorithm (Tree-Lasso Logistic Regression) resulted in an increase of interpretability of the resulting model. The models are interpreted for the readmission prediction problem in general pediatric population in California, as well as several important subpopulations, and the interpretations of models comply with existing medical understanding of pediatric readmission. Finally, quantitative assessment of the interpretability of the models is given, that is beyond simple counts of selected low-level features. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A New Multivariate Approach for Prognostics Based on Extreme Learning Machine and Fuzzy Clustering.

PubMed

Javed, Kamran; Gouriveau, Rafael; Zerhouni, Noureddine

2015-12-01

Prognostics is a core process of prognostics and health management (PHM) discipline, that estimates the remaining useful life (RUL) of a degrading machinery to optimize its service delivery potential. However, machinery operates in a dynamic environment and the acquired condition monitoring data are usually noisy and subject to a high level of uncertainty/unpredictability, which complicates prognostics. The complexity further increases, when there is absence of prior knowledge about ground truth (or failure definition). For such issues, data-driven prognostics can be a valuable solution without deep understanding of system physics. This paper contributes a new data-driven prognostics approach namely, an "enhanced multivariate degradation modeling," which enables modeling degrading states of machinery without assuming a homogeneous pattern. In brief, a predictability scheme is introduced to reduce the dimensionality of the data. Following that, the proposed prognostics model is achieved by integrating two new algorithms namely, the summation wavelet-extreme learning machine and subtractive-maximum entropy fuzzy clustering to show evolution of machine degradation by simultaneous predictions and discrete state estimation. The prognostics model is equipped with a dynamic failure threshold assignment procedure to estimate RUL in a realistic manner. To validate the proposition, a case study is performed on turbofan engines data from PHM challenge 2008 (NASA), and results are compared with recent publications.

Echo State Networks for data-driven downhole pressure estimation in gas-lift oil wells.

PubMed

Antonelo, Eric A; Camponogara, Eduardo; Foss, Bjarne

2017-01-01

Process measurements are of vital importance for monitoring and control of industrial plants. When we consider offshore oil production platforms, wells that require gas-lift technology to yield oil production from low pressure oil reservoirs can become unstable under some conditions. This undesirable phenomenon is usually called slugging flow, and can be identified by an oscillatory behavior of the downhole pressure measurement. Given the importance of this measurement and the unreliability of the related sensor, this work aims at designing data-driven soft-sensors for downhole pressure estimation in two contexts: one for speeding up first-principle model simulation of a vertical riser model; and another for estimating the downhole pressure using real-world data from an oil well from Petrobras based only on topside platform measurements. Both tasks are tackled by employing Echo State Networks (ESN) as an efficient technique for training Recurrent Neural Networks. We show that a single ESN is capable of robustly modeling both the slugging flow behavior and a steady state based only on a square wave input signal representing the production choke opening in the vertical riser. Besides, we compare the performance of a standard network to the performance of a multiple timescale hierarchical architecture in the second task and show that the latter architecture performs better in modeling both large irregular transients and more commonly occurring small oscillations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Role of Guided Induction in Paper-Based Data-Driven Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smart, Jonathan

2014-01-01

This study examines the role of guided induction as an instructional approach in paper-based data-driven learning (DDL) in the context of an ESL grammar course during an intensive English program at an American public university. Specifically, it examines whether corpus-informed grammar instruction is more effective through inductive, data-driven…

Modeling the sustainable development of innovation in transport construction based on the communication approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Revunova, Svetlana; Vlasenko, Vyacheslav; Bukreev, Anatoly

2017-10-01

The article proposes the models of innovative activity development, which is driven by the formation of “points of innovation-driven growth”. The models are based on the analysis of the current state and dynamics of innovative development of construction enterprises in the transport sector and take into account a number of essential organizational and economic changes in management. The authors substantiate implementing such development models as an organizational innovation that has a communication genesis. The use of the communication approach to the formation of “points of innovation-driven growth” allowed the authors to apply the mathematical tools of the graph theory in order to activate the innovative activity of the transport industry in the region. As a result, the authors have proposed models that allow constructing an optimal mechanism for the formation of “points of innovation-driven growth”.

Integration of data-driven and physically-based methods to assess shallow landslides susceptibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lajas, Sara; Oliveira, Sérgio C.; Zêzere, José Luis

2016-04-01

Approaches used to assess shallow landslides susceptibility at the basin scale are conceptually different depending on the use of statistic or deterministic methods. The data-driven methods are sustained in the assumption that the same causes are likely to produce the same effects and for that reason a present/past landslide inventory and a dataset of factors assumed as predisposing factors are crucial for the landslide susceptibility assessment. The physically-based methods are based on a system controlled by physical laws and soil mechanics, where the forces which tend to promote movement are compared with forces that tend to promote resistance to movement. In this case, the evaluation of susceptibility is supported by the calculation of the Factor of safety (FoS), and dependent of the availability of detailed data related with the slope geometry and hydrological and geotechnical properties of the soils and rocks. Within this framework, this work aims to test two hypothesis: (i) although conceptually distinct and based on contrasting procedures, statistic and deterministic methods generate similar shallow landslides susceptibility results regarding the predictive capacity and spatial agreement; and (ii) the integration of the shallow landslides susceptibility maps obtained with data-driven and physically-based methods, for the same study area, generate a more reliable susceptibility model for shallow landslides occurrence. To evaluate these two hypotheses, we select the Information Value data-driven method and the physically-based Infinite Slope model to evaluate shallow landslides in the study area of Monfalim and Louriceira basins (13.9 km2), which is located in the north of Lisbon region (Portugal). The landslide inventory is composed by 111 shallow landslides and was divide in two independent groups based on temporal criteria (age ≤ 1983 and age > 1983): (i) the modelling group (51 cases) was used to define the weights for each predisposing factor (lithology, land use, slope, aspect, curvature, topographic position index and the slope over area ratio) with the Information Value method and was used also to calibrate the strength parameters (cohesion and friction angle) of the different lithological units considered in the Infinity Slope model; and (ii) the validation group (60 cases) was used to independent validate and define the predictive capacity of the shallow landslides susceptibility maps produced with the Information Value method and the Infinite Slope method. The comparison of both landslide susceptibility maps was supported by: (i) the computation of the Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves; (ii) the calculation of the Area Under the Curve (AUC); and (iii) the evaluation of the spatial agreement between the landslide susceptibility classes. Finally, the susceptibility maps produced with the Information Value and the Infinite Slope methods are integrated into a single landslide susceptibility map based on a set of integration rules define by cross-validation of the susceptibility classes of both maps and analysis of the corresponding contingency table. This work was supported by the FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology and is within the framework of the FORLAND Project. Sérgio Oliveira was funded by a postdoctoral grant (SFRH/BPD/85827/2012) from the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT).

Atmospheric CO2 inversions on the mesoscale using data-driven prior uncertainties: quantification of the European terrestrial CO2 fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kountouris, Panagiotis; Gerbig, Christoph; Rödenbeck, Christian; Karstens, Ute; Koch, Thomas F.; Heimann, Martin

2018-03-01

Optimized biogenic carbon fluxes for Europe were estimated from high-resolution regional-scale inversions, utilizing atmospheric CO2 measurements at 16 stations for the year 2007. Additional sensitivity tests with different data-driven error structures were performed. As the atmospheric network is rather sparse and consequently contains large spatial gaps, we use a priori biospheric fluxes to further constrain the inversions. The biospheric fluxes were simulated by the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM) at a resolution of 0.1° and optimized against eddy covariance data. Overall we estimate an a priori uncertainty of 0.54 GtC yr-1 related to the poor spatial representation between the biospheric model and the ecosystem sites. The sink estimated from the atmospheric inversions for the area of Europe (as represented in the model domain) ranges between 0.23 and 0.38 GtC yr-1 (0.39 and 0.71 GtC yr-1 up-scaled to geographical Europe). This is within the range of posterior flux uncertainty estimates of previous studies using ground-based observations.

Personalized mortality prediction driven by electronic medical data and a patient similarity metric.

PubMed

Lee, Joon; Maslove, David M; Dubin, Joel A

2015-01-01

Clinical outcome prediction normally employs static, one-size-fits-all models that perform well for the average patient but are sub-optimal for individual patients with unique characteristics. In the era of digital healthcare, it is feasible to dynamically personalize decision support by identifying and analyzing similar past patients, in a way that is analogous to personalized product recommendation in e-commerce. Our objectives were: 1) to prove that analyzing only similar patients leads to better outcome prediction performance than analyzing all available patients, and 2) to characterize the trade-off between training data size and the degree of similarity between the training data and the index patient for whom prediction is to be made. We deployed a cosine-similarity-based patient similarity metric (PSM) to an intensive care unit (ICU) database to identify patients that are most similar to each patient and subsequently to custom-build 30-day mortality prediction models. Rich clinical and administrative data from the first day in the ICU from 17,152 adult ICU admissions were analyzed. The results confirmed that using data from only a small subset of most similar patients for training improves predictive performance in comparison with using data from all available patients. The results also showed that when too few similar patients are used for training, predictive performance degrades due to the effects of small sample sizes. Our PSM-based approach outperformed well-known ICU severity of illness scores. Although the improved prediction performance is achieved at the cost of increased computational burden, Big Data technologies can help realize personalized data-driven decision support at the point of care. The present study provides crucial empirical evidence for the promising potential of personalized data-driven decision support systems. With the increasing adoption of electronic medical record (EMR) systems, our novel medical data analytics contributes to meaningful use of EMR data.

Personalized Mortality Prediction Driven by Electronic Medical Data and a Patient Similarity Metric

PubMed Central

Lee, Joon; Maslove, David M.; Dubin, Joel A.

2015-01-01

Background Clinical outcome prediction normally employs static, one-size-fits-all models that perform well for the average patient but are sub-optimal for individual patients with unique characteristics. In the era of digital healthcare, it is feasible to dynamically personalize decision support by identifying and analyzing similar past patients, in a way that is analogous to personalized product recommendation in e-commerce. Our objectives were: 1) to prove that analyzing only similar patients leads to better outcome prediction performance than analyzing all available patients, and 2) to characterize the trade-off between training data size and the degree of similarity between the training data and the index patient for whom prediction is to be made. Methods and Findings We deployed a cosine-similarity-based patient similarity metric (PSM) to an intensive care unit (ICU) database to identify patients that are most similar to each patient and subsequently to custom-build 30-day mortality prediction models. Rich clinical and administrative data from the first day in the ICU from 17,152 adult ICU admissions were analyzed. The results confirmed that using data from only a small subset of most similar patients for training improves predictive performance in comparison with using data from all available patients. The results also showed that when too few similar patients are used for training, predictive performance degrades due to the effects of small sample sizes. Our PSM-based approach outperformed well-known ICU severity of illness scores. Although the improved prediction performance is achieved at the cost of increased computational burden, Big Data technologies can help realize personalized data-driven decision support at the point of care. Conclusions The present study provides crucial empirical evidence for the promising potential of personalized data-driven decision support systems. With the increasing adoption of electronic medical record (EMR) systems, our novel medical data analytics contributes to meaningful use of EMR data. PMID:25978419

Adaptive Impact-Driven Detection of Silent Data Corruption for HPC Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di, Sheng; Cappello, Franck

For exascale HPC applications, silent data corruption (SDC) is one of the most dangerous problems because there is no indication that there are errors during the execution. We propose an adaptive impact-driven method that can detect SDCs dynamically. The key contributions are threefold. (1) We carefully characterize 18 real-world HPC applications and discuss the runtime data features, as well as the impact of the SDCs on their execution results. (2) We propose an impact-driven detection model that does not blindly improve the prediction accuracy, but instead detects only influential SDCs to guarantee user-acceptable execution results. (3) Our solution can adaptmore » to dynamic prediction errors based on local runtime data and can automatically tune detection ranges for guaranteeing low false alarms. Experiments show that our detector can detect 80-99.99% of SDCs with a false alarm rate less that 1% of iterations for most cases. The memory cost and detection overhead are reduced to 15% and 6.3%, respectively, for a large majority of applications.« less

Electrically Driven Liquid Film Boiling Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Didion, Jeffrey R.

2016-01-01

This presentation presents the science background and ground based results that form the basis of the Electrically Driven Liquid Film Boiling Experiment. This is an ISS experiment that is manifested for 2021. Objective: Characterize the effects of gravity on the interaction of electric and flow fields in the presence of phase change specifically pertaining to: a) The effects of microgravity on the electrically generated two-phase flow. b) The effects of microgravity on electrically driven liquid film boiling (includes extreme heat fluxes). Electro-wetting of the boiling section will repel the bubbles away from the heated surface in microgravity environment. Relevance/Impact: Provides phenomenological foundation for the development of electric field based two-phase thermal management systems leveraging EHD, permitting optimization of heat transfer surface area to volume ratios as well as achievement of high heat transfer coefficients thus resulting in system mass and volume savings. EHD replaces buoyancy or flow driven bubble removal from heated surface. Development Approach: Conduct preliminary experiments in low gravity and ground-based facilities to refine technique and obtain preliminary data for model development. ISS environment required to characterize electro-wetting effect on nucleate boiling and CHF in the absence of gravity. Will operate in the FIR - designed for autonomous operation.

Using New Remotely-sensed Biomass To Estimate Co2 Fluxes Over Siberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lafont, S.; Kergoat, L.; Dedieu, G.; Le Toan, T.

Two european programs recently focused on Siberia. The first one, Eurosiberian Car- bonflux was a faisability study for an observation system of the regional CO2 fluxes. The second one, SIBERIA was a big effort to develop and validate a biomass map on Siberia using radar data from satelltes (J-ERS, ERS). Here, we extend the simula- tion of NPP performed for the first program by using the biomass data of the second program. The TURC model, used here, is a global NPP model, based on light use efficiency, where photosynthetic assimilation is driven by satellite vegetation index, and au- totrophic respiration is driven by biomass. In this study, we will present a n´ zoom z on siberian region. The TURC model was run with a fine resolution (few kilometers) and a daily time step. We will discuss the impact of a new biomass dataset description on Net Primary Pro- ductivity (NPP) and CO2 fluxes estimation.

A Data-Driven Response Virtual Sensor Technique with Partial Vibration Measurements Using Convolutional Neural Network.

PubMed

Sun, Shan-Bin; He, Yuan-Yuan; Zhou, Si-Da; Yue, Zhen-Jiang

2017-12-12

Measurement of dynamic responses plays an important role in structural health monitoring, damage detection and other fields of research. However, in aerospace engineering, the physical sensors are limited in the operational conditions of spacecraft, due to the severe environment in outer space. This paper proposes a virtual sensor model with partial vibration measurements using a convolutional neural network. The transmissibility function is employed as prior knowledge. A four-layer neural network with two convolutional layers, one fully connected layer, and an output layer is proposed as the predicting model. Numerical examples of two different structural dynamic systems demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach. The excellence of the novel technique is further indicated using a simply supported beam experiment comparing to a modal-model-based virtual sensor, which uses modal parameters, such as mode shapes, for estimating the responses of the faulty sensors. The results show that the presented data-driven response virtual sensor technique can predict structural response with high accuracy.

Facial First Impressions Across Culture: Data-Driven Modeling of Chinese and British Perceivers' Unconstrained Facial Impressions.

PubMed

Sutherland, Clare A M; Liu, Xizi; Zhang, Lingshan; Chu, Yingtung; Oldmeadow, Julian A; Young, Andrew W

2018-04-01

People form first impressions from facial appearance rapidly, and these impressions can have considerable social and economic consequences. Three dimensions can explain Western perceivers' impressions of Caucasian faces: approachability, youthful-attractiveness, and dominance. Impressions along these dimensions are theorized to be based on adaptive cues to threat detection or sexual selection, making it likely that they are universal. We tested whether the same dimensions of facial impressions emerge across culture by building data-driven models of first impressions of Asian and Caucasian faces derived from Chinese and British perceivers' unconstrained judgments. We then cross-validated the dimensions with computer-generated average images. We found strong evidence for common approachability and youthful-attractiveness dimensions across perceiver and face race, with some evidence of a third dimension akin to capability. The models explained ~75% of the variance in facial impressions. In general, the findings demonstrate substantial cross-cultural agreement in facial impressions, especially on the most salient dimensions.

A Data-Driven Response Virtual Sensor Technique with Partial Vibration Measurements Using Convolutional Neural Network

PubMed Central

Sun, Shan-Bin; He, Yuan-Yuan; Zhou, Si-Da; Yue, Zhen-Jiang

2017-01-01

Measurement of dynamic responses plays an important role in structural health monitoring, damage detection and other fields of research. However, in aerospace engineering, the physical sensors are limited in the operational conditions of spacecraft, due to the severe environment in outer space. This paper proposes a virtual sensor model with partial vibration measurements using a convolutional neural network. The transmissibility function is employed as prior knowledge. A four-layer neural network with two convolutional layers, one fully connected layer, and an output layer is proposed as the predicting model. Numerical examples of two different structural dynamic systems demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach. The excellence of the novel technique is further indicated using a simply supported beam experiment comparing to a modal-model-based virtual sensor, which uses modal parameters, such as mode shapes, for estimating the responses of the faulty sensors. The results show that the presented data-driven response virtual sensor technique can predict structural response with high accuracy. PMID:29231868

Real-time flood forecasts & risk assessment using a possibility-theory based fuzzy neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, U. T.

2016-12-01

Globally floods are one of the most devastating natural disasters and improved flood forecasting methods are essential for better flood protection in urban areas. Given the availability of high resolution real-time datasets for flood variables (e.g. streamflow and precipitation) in many urban areas, data-driven models have been effectively used to predict peak flow rates in river; however, the selection of input parameters for these types of models is often subjective. Additionally, the inherit uncertainty associated with data models along with errors in extreme event observations means that uncertainty quantification is essential. Addressing these concerns will enable improved flood forecasting methods and provide more accurate flood risk assessments. In this research, a new type of data-driven model, a quasi-real-time updating fuzzy neural network is developed to predict peak flow rates in urban riverine watersheds. A possibility-to-probability transformation is first used to convert observed data into fuzzy numbers. A possibility theory based training regime is them used to construct the fuzzy parameters and the outputs. A new entropy-based optimisation criterion is used to train the network. Two existing methods to select the optimum input parameters are modified to account for fuzzy number inputs, and compared. These methods are: Entropy-Wavelet-based Artificial Neural Network (EWANN) and Combined Neural Pathway Strength Analysis (CNPSA). Finally, an automated algorithm design to select the optimum structure of the neural network is implemented. The overall impact of each component of training this network is to replace the traditional ad hoc network configuration methods, with one based on objective criteria. Ten years of data from the Bow River in Calgary, Canada (including two major floods in 2005 and 2013) are used to calibrate and test the network. The EWANN method selected lagged peak flow as a candidate input, whereas the CNPSA method selected lagged precipitation and lagged mean daily flow as candidate inputs. Model performance metric show that the CNPSA method had higher performance (with an efficiency of 0.76). Model output was used to assess the risk of extreme peak flows for a given day using an inverse possibility-to-probability transformation.

FireMap: A Web Tool for Dynamic Data-Driven Predictive Wildfire Modeling Powered by the WIFIRE Cyberinfrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Block, J.; Crawl, D.; Artes, T.; Cowart, C.; de Callafon, R.; DeFanti, T.; Graham, J.; Smarr, L.; Srivas, T.; Altintas, I.

2016-12-01

The NSF-funded WIFIRE project has designed a web-based wildfire modeling simulation and visualization tool called FireMap. The tool executes FARSITE to model fire propagation using dynamic weather and fire data, configuration settings provided by the user, and static topography and fuel datasets already built-in. Using GIS capabilities combined with scalable big data integration and processing, FireMap enables simple execution of the model with options for running ensembles by taking the information uncertainty into account. The results are easily viewable, sharable, repeatable, and can be animated as a time series. From these capabilities, users can model real-time fire behavior, analyze what-if scenarios, and keep a history of model runs over time for sharing with collaborators. Firemap runs FARSITE with national and local sensor networks for real-time weather data ingestion and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) weather for forecasted weather. The HRRR is a NOAA/NCEP operational weather prediction system comprised of a numerical forecast model and an analysis/assimilation system to initialize the model. It is run with a horizontal resolution of 3 km, has 50 vertical levels, and has a temporal resolution of 15 minutes. The HRRR requires an Environmental Data Exchange (EDEX) server to receive the feed and generate secondary products out of it for the modeling. UCSD's EDEX server, funded by NSF, makes high-resolution weather data available to researchers worldwide and enables visualization of weather systems and weather events lasting months or even years. The high-speed server aggregates weather data from the University Consortium for Atmospheric Research by way of a subscription service from the Consortium called the Internet Data Distribution system. These features are part of WIFIRE's long term goals to build an end-to-end cyberinfrastructure for real-time and data-driven simulation, prediction and visualization of wildfire behavior. Although Firemap is a research product of WIFIRE, developed in collaboration with a number of fire departments, the tool is operational in pilot form for providing big data-driven predictive fire spread modeling. Most recently, FireMap was used for situational awareness in the July 2016 Sand Fire by LA City and LA County Fire Departments.

Zonal-Mean Temperature Variations Inferred from SABER Measurements on TIMED Compared with UARS Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, Frank T.; Mayr, Hans; Russell, James; Mlynczak, Marty; Reber, Carl A.

2005-01-01

In the Numerical Spectral Model (NSM, Mayr et al., 2003), small-scale gravity waves propagating in the north/south direction can generate zonal mean (m = 0) meridional wind oscillations with periods between 2 and 4 months. These oscillations tend to be confined to low latitudes and have been interpreted to be the meridional counterpart of the wave-driven Quasi Biennial Oscillation in the zonal circulation. Wave driven meridional winds across the equator should generate, due to dynamical heating and cooling, temperature oscillations with opposite phase in the two hemispheres. We have analyzed SABER temperature measurements in the altitude range between 55 and 95 km to investigate the existence such variations. Because there are also strong tidal signatures (up to approximately 20 K) in the data, our algorithm estimates both mean values and tides together from the data. Based on SABER temperature data, the intra-annual variations with periods between 2 and 4 months can have amplitudes up to 5 K or more, depending on the altitude. Their amplitudes are in qualitative agreement with those inferred Erom UARS data (from different years). The SABER temperature variations also reveal pronounced hemispherical asymmetries, which are qualitatively consistent with wave driven meridional wind oscillations across the equator. Oscillations with similar periods have been seen in the meridional winds based on UARS data (Huang and Reber, 2003).

A transparent and data-driven global tectonic regionalization model for seismic hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yen-Shin; Weatherill, Graeme; Pagani, Marco; Cotton, Fabrice

2018-05-01

A key concept that is common to many assumptions inherent within seismic hazard assessment is that of tectonic similarity. This recognizes that certain regions of the globe may display similar geophysical characteristics, such as in the attenuation of seismic waves, the magnitude scaling properties of seismogenic sources or the seismic coupling of the lithosphere. Previous attempts at tectonic regionalization, particularly within a seismic hazard assessment context, have often been based on expert judgements; in most of these cases, the process for delineating tectonic regions is neither reproducible nor consistent from location to location. In this work, the regionalization process is implemented in a scheme that is reproducible, comprehensible from a geophysical rationale, and revisable when new relevant data are published. A spatial classification-scheme is developed based on fuzzy logic, enabling the quantification of concepts that are approximate rather than precise. Using the proposed methodology, we obtain a transparent and data-driven global tectonic regionalization model for seismic hazard applications as well as the subjective probabilities (e.g. degree of being active/degree of being cratonic) that indicate the degree to which a site belongs in a tectonic category.

A Data Driven Model for Predicting RNA-Protein Interactions based on Gradient Boosting Machine.

PubMed

Jain, Dharm Skandh; Gupte, Sanket Rajan; Aduri, Raviprasad

2018-06-22

RNA protein interactions (RPI) play a pivotal role in the regulation of various biological processes. Experimental validation of RPI has been time-consuming, paving the way for computational prediction methods. The major limiting factor of these methods has been the accuracy and confidence of the predictions, and our in-house experiments show that they fail to accurately predict RPI involving short RNA sequences such as TERRA RNA. Here, we present a data-driven model for RPI prediction using a gradient boosting classifier. Amino acids and nucleotides are classified based on the high-resolution structural data of RNA protein complexes. The minimum structural unit consisting of five residues is used as the descriptor. Comparative analysis of existing methods shows the consistently higher performance of our method irrespective of the length of RNA present in the RPI. The method has been successfully applied to map RPI networks involving both long noncoding RNA as well as TERRA RNA. The method is also shown to successfully predict RNA and protein hubs present in RPI networks of four different organisms. The robustness of this method will provide a way for predicting RPI networks of yet unknown interactions for both long noncoding RNA and microRNA.

Development of a data driven process-based model for remote sensing of terrestrial ecosystem productivity, evapotranspiration, and above-ground biomass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Masri, Bassil

2011-12-01

Modeling terrestrial ecosystem functions and structure has been a subject of increasing interest because of the importance of the terrestrial carbon cycle in global carbon budget and climate change. In this study, satellite data were used to estimate gross primary production (GPP), evapotranspiration (ET) for two deciduous forests: Morgan Monroe State forest (MMSF) in Indiana and Harvard forest in Massachusetts. Also, above-ground biomass (AGB) was estimated for the MMSF and the Howland forest (mixed forest) in Maine. Surface reflectance and temperature, vegetation indices, soil moisture, tree height and canopy area derived from the Moderate Resolution Imagining Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMRS-E), LIDAR, and aerial imagery respectively, were used for this purpose. These variables along with others derived from remotely sensed data were used as inputs variables to process-based models which estimated GPP and ET and to a regression model which estimated AGB. The process-based models were BIOME-BGC and the Penman-Monteith equation. Measured values for the carbon and water fluxes obtained from the Eddy covariance flux tower were compared to the modeled GPP and ET. The data driven methods produced good estimation of GPP and ET with an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.17 molC/m2 and 0.40 mm/day, respectively for the MMSF and the Harvard forest. In addition, allometric data for the MMSF were used to develop the regression model relating AGB with stem volume. The performance of the AGB regression model was compared to site measurements using remotely sensed data for the MMSF and the Howland forest where the model AGB RMSE ranged between 2.92--3.30 Kg C/m2. Sensitivity analysis revealed that improvement in maintenance respiration estimation and remotely sensed maximum photosynthetic activity as well as accurate estimate of canopy resistance will result in improved GPP and ET predictions. Moreover, AGB estimates were found to decrease as large grid size is used in rasterizing LIDAR return points. The analysis suggested that this methodology could be used as an operational procedure for monitoring changes in terrestrial ecosystem functions and structure brought by environmental changes.

Optimizing nursing care by integrating theory-driven evidence-based practice.

PubMed

Pipe, Teri Britt

2007-01-01

An emerging challenge for nursing leadership is how to convey the importance of both evidence-based practice (EBP) and theory-driven care in ensuring patient safety and optimizing outcomes. This article describes a specific example of a leadership strategy based on Rosswurm and Larrabee's model for change to EBP, which was effective in aligning the processes of EBP and theory-driven care.

Using subject-specific three-dimensional (3D) anthropometry data in digital human modelling: case study in hand motion simulation.

PubMed

Tsao, Liuxing; Ma, Liang

2016-11-01

Digital human modelling enables ergonomists and designers to consider ergonomic concerns and design alternatives in a timely and cost-efficient manner in the early stages of design. However, the reliability of the simulation could be limited due to the percentile-based approach used in constructing the digital human model. To enhance the accuracy of the size and shape of the models, we proposed a framework to generate digital human models using three-dimensional (3D) anthropometric data. The 3D scan data from specific subjects' hands were segmented based on the estimated centres of rotation. The segments were then driven in forward kinematics to perform several functional postures. The constructed hand models were then verified, thereby validating the feasibility of the framework. The proposed framework helps generate accurate subject-specific digital human models, which can be utilised to guide product design and workspace arrangement. Practitioner Summary: Subject-specific digital human models can be constructed under the proposed framework based on three-dimensional (3D) anthropometry. This approach enables more reliable digital human simulation to guide product design and workspace arrangement.

Comparison between collective coordinate models for domain wall motion in PMA nanostrips in the presence of the Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vandermeulen, J.; Nasseri, S. A.; Van de Wiele, B.; Durin, G.; Van Waeyenberge, B.; Dupré, L.

2018-03-01

Lagrangian-based collective coordinate models for magnetic domain wall (DW) motion rely on an ansatz for the DW profile and a Lagrangian approach to describe the DW motion in terms of a set of time-dependent collective coordinates: the DW position, the DW magnetization angle, the DW width and the DW tilting angle. Another approach was recently used to derive similar equations of motion by averaging the Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert equation without any ansatz, and identifying the relevant collective coordinates afterwards. In this paper, we use an updated version of the semi-analytical equations to compare the Lagrangian-based collective coordinate models with micromagnetic simulations for field- and STT-driven (spin-transfer torque-driven) DW motion in Pt/CoFe/MgO and Pt/Co/AlOx nanostrips. Through this comparison, we assess the accuracy of the different models, and provide insight into the deviations of the models from simulations. It is found that the lack of terms related to DW asymmetry in the Lagrangian-based collective coordinate models significantly contributes to the discrepancy between the predictions of the most accurate Lagrangian-based model and the micromagnetic simulations in the field-driven case. This is in contrast to the STT-driven case where the DW remains symmetric.

On Lack of Robustness in Hydrological Model Development Due to Absence of Guidelines for Selecting Calibration and Evaluation Data: Demonstration for Data-Driven Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Feifei; Maier, Holger R.; Wu, Wenyan; Dandy, Graeme C.; Gupta, Hoshin V.; Zhang, Tuqiao

2018-02-01

Hydrological models are used for a wide variety of engineering purposes, including streamflow forecasting and flood-risk estimation. To develop such models, it is common to allocate the available data to calibration and evaluation data subsets. Surprisingly, the issue of how this allocation can affect model evaluation performance has been largely ignored in the research literature. This paper discusses the evaluation performance bias that can arise from how available data are allocated to calibration and evaluation subsets. As a first step to assessing this issue in a statistically rigorous fashion, we present a comprehensive investigation of the influence of data allocation on the development of data-driven artificial neural network (ANN) models of streamflow. Four well-known formal data splitting methods are applied to 754 catchments from Australia and the U.S. to develop 902,483 ANN models. Results clearly show that the choice of the method used for data allocation has a significant impact on model performance, particularly for runoff data that are more highly skewed, highlighting the importance of considering the impact of data splitting when developing hydrological models. The statistical behavior of the data splitting methods investigated is discussed and guidance is offered on the selection of the most appropriate data splitting methods to achieve representative evaluation performance for streamflow data with different statistical properties. Although our results are obtained for data-driven models, they highlight the fact that this issue is likely to have a significant impact on all types of hydrological models, especially conceptual rainfall-runoff models.

Bridging paradigms: hybrid mechanistic-discriminative predictive models.

PubMed

Doyle, Orla M; Tsaneva-Atansaova, Krasimira; Harte, James; Tiffin, Paul A; Tino, Peter; Díaz-Zuccarini, Vanessa

2013-03-01

Many disease processes are extremely complex and characterized by multiple stochastic processes interacting simultaneously. Current analytical approaches have included mechanistic models and machine learning (ML), which are often treated as orthogonal viewpoints. However, to facilitate truly personalized medicine, new perspectives may be required. This paper reviews the use of both mechanistic models and ML in healthcare as well as emerging hybrid methods, which are an exciting and promising approach for biologically based, yet data-driven advanced intelligent systems.

A Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Model for the Oxime TMB-4: Simulation of Rodent and Human Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-13

concentration gradient–driven diffusion across the membranes, but also on the permeability area (PA) cross product for the tissue, which slows the pene...or slowly (mus- cle, skin, bone) perfused tissues. Diffusion limitation con- stants (permeability area cross products or PAs), metabolism and...al. 1991; Worek et al. 2005). A PBPK model has the advan- tage of interspecies and cross -route extrapolation. This PBPK model was initially developed

Data-driven models of dominantly-inherited Alzheimer's disease progression.

PubMed

Oxtoby, Neil P; Young, Alexandra L; Cash, David M; Benzinger, Tammie L S; Fagan, Anne M; Morris, John C; Bateman, Randall J; Fox, Nick C; Schott, Jonathan M; Alexander, Daniel C

2018-05-01

See Li and Donohue (doi:10.1093/brain/awy089) for a scientific commentary on this article.Dominantly-inherited Alzheimer's disease is widely hoped to hold the key to developing interventions for sporadic late onset Alzheimer's disease. We use emerging techniques in generative data-driven disease progression modelling to characterize dominantly-inherited Alzheimer's disease progression with unprecedented resolution, and without relying upon familial estimates of years until symptom onset. We retrospectively analysed biomarker data from the sixth data freeze of the Dominantly Inherited Alzheimer Network observational study, including measures of amyloid proteins and neurofibrillary tangles in the brain, regional brain volumes and cortical thicknesses, brain glucose hypometabolism, and cognitive performance from the Mini-Mental State Examination (all adjusted for age, years of education, sex, and head size, as appropriate). Data included 338 participants with known mutation status (211 mutation carriers in three subtypes: 163 PSEN1, 17 PSEN2, and 31 APP) and a baseline visit (age 19-66; up to four visits each, 1.1 ± 1.9 years in duration; spanning 30 years before, to 21 years after, parental age of symptom onset). We used an event-based model to estimate sequences of biomarker changes from baseline data across disease subtypes (mutation groups), and a differential equation model to estimate biomarker trajectories from longitudinal data (up to 66 mutation carriers, all subtypes combined). The two models concur that biomarker abnormality proceeds as follows: amyloid deposition in cortical then subcortical regions (∼24 ± 11 years before onset); phosphorylated tau (17 ± 8 years), tau and amyloid-β changes in cerebrospinal fluid; neurodegeneration first in the putamen and nucleus accumbens (up to 6 ± 2 years); then cognitive decline (7 ± 6 years), cerebral hypometabolism (4 ± 4 years), and further regional neurodegeneration. Our models predicted symptom onset more accurately than predictions that used familial estimates: root mean squared error of 1.35 years versus 5.54 years. The models reveal hidden detail on dominantly-inherited Alzheimer's disease progression, as well as providing data-driven systems for fine-grained patient staging and prediction of symptom onset with great potential utility in clinical trials.

Framework for a clinical information system.

PubMed

Van De Velde, R; Lansiers, R; Antonissen, G

2002-01-01

The design and implementation of Clinical Information System architecture is presented. This architecture has been developed and implemented based on components following a strong underlying conceptual and technological model. Common Object Request Broker and n-tier technology featuring centralised and departmental clinical information systems as the back-end store for all clinical data are used. Servers located in the "middle" tier apply the clinical (business) model and application rules. The main characteristics are the focus on modelling and reuse of both data and business logic. Scalability as well as adaptability to constantly changing requirements via component driven computing are the main reasons for that approach.

Mining residential water and electricity demand data in Southern California to inform demand management strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cominola, A.; Spang, E. S.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Loge, F. J.; Lund, J. R.

2016-12-01

Demand side management strategies are key to meet future water and energy demands in urban contexts, promote water and energy efficiency in the residential sector, provide customized services and communications to consumers, and reduce utilities' costs. Smart metering technologies allow gathering high temporal and spatial resolution water and energy consumption data and support the development of data-driven models of consumers' behavior. Modelling and predicting resource consumption behavior is essential to inform demand management. Yet, analyzing big, smart metered, databases requires proper data mining and modelling techniques, in order to extract useful information supporting decision makers to spot end uses towards which water and energy efficiency or conservation efforts should be prioritized. In this study, we consider the following research questions: (i) how is it possible to extract representative consumers' personalities out of big smart metered water and energy data? (ii) are residential water and energy consumption profiles interconnected? (iii) Can we design customized water and energy demand management strategies based on the knowledge of water- energy demand profiles and other user-specific psychographic information? To address the above research questions, we contribute a data-driven approach to identify and model routines in water and energy consumers' behavior. We propose a novel customer segmentation procedure based on data-mining techniques. Our procedure consists of three steps: (i) extraction of typical water-energy consumption profiles for each household, (ii) profiles clustering based on their similarity, and (iii) evaluation of the influence of candidate explanatory variables on the identified clusters. The approach is tested onto a dataset of smart metered water and energy consumption data from over 1000 households in South California. Our methodology allows identifying heterogeneous groups of consumers from the studied sample, as well as characterizing them with respect to consumption profiles features and socio- demographic information. Results show how such better understanding of the considered users' community allows spotting potentially interesting areas for water and energy demand management interventions.

Experimental studies of characteristic combustion-driven flows for CFD validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Santoro, R. J.; Moser, M.; Anderson, W.; Pal, S.; Ryan, H.; Merkle, C. L.

1992-01-01

A series of rocket-related studies intended to develop a suitable data base for validation of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models of characteristic combustion-driven flows was undertaken at the Propulsion Engineering Research Center at Penn State. Included are studies of coaxial and impinging jet injectors as well as chamber wall heat transfer effects. The objective of these studies is to provide fundamental understanding and benchmark quality data for phenomena important to rocket combustion under well-characterized conditions. Diagnostic techniques utilized in these studies emphasize determinations of velocity, temperature, spray and droplet characteristics, and combustion zone distribution. Since laser diagnostic approaches are favored, the development of an optically accessible rocket chamber has been a high priority in the initial phase of the project. During the design phase for this chamber, the advice and input of the CFD modeling community were actively sought through presentations and written surveys. Based on this procedure, a suitable uni-element rocket chamber was fabricated and is presently under preliminary testing. Results of these tests, as well as the survey findings leading to the chamber design, were presented.

Nonlinear data-driven identification of polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells for diagnostic purposes: A Volterra series approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritzberger, D.; Jakubek, S.

2017-09-01

In this work, a data-driven identification method, based on polynomial nonlinear autoregressive models with exogenous inputs (NARX) and the Volterra series, is proposed to describe the dynamic and nonlinear voltage and current characteristics of polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs). The structure selection and parameter estimation of the NARX model is performed on broad-band voltage/current data. By transforming the time-domain NARX model into a Volterra series representation using the harmonic probing algorithm, a frequency-domain description of the linear and nonlinear dynamics is obtained. With the Volterra kernels corresponding to different operating conditions, information from existing diagnostic tools in the frequency domain such as electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and total harmonic distortion analysis (THDA) are effectively combined. Additionally, the time-domain NARX model can be utilized for fault detection by evaluating the difference between measured and simulated output. To increase the fault detectability, an optimization problem is introduced which maximizes this output residual to obtain proper excitation frequencies. As a possible extension it is shown, that by optimizing the periodic signal shape itself that the fault detectability is further increased.

Hybrid Analytical and Data-Driven Modeling for Feed-Forward Robot Control †

PubMed Central

Reinhart, René Felix; Shareef, Zeeshan; Steil, Jochen Jakob

2017-01-01

Feed-forward model-based control relies on models of the controlled plant, e.g., in robotics on accurate knowledge of manipulator kinematics or dynamics. However, mechanical and analytical models do not capture all aspects of a plant’s intrinsic properties and there remain unmodeled dynamics due to varying parameters, unmodeled friction or soft materials. In this context, machine learning is an alternative suitable technique to extract non-linear plant models from data. However, fully data-based models suffer from inaccuracies as well and are inefficient if they include learning of well known analytical models. This paper thus argues that feed-forward control based on hybrid models comprising an analytical model and a learned error model can significantly improve modeling accuracy. Hybrid modeling here serves the purpose to combine the best of the two modeling worlds. The hybrid modeling methodology is described and the approach is demonstrated for two typical problems in robotics, i.e., inverse kinematics control and computed torque control. The former is performed for a redundant soft robot and the latter for a rigid industrial robot with redundant degrees of freedom, where a complete analytical model is not available for any of the platforms. PMID:28208697

Hybrid Analytical and Data-Driven Modeling for Feed-Forward Robot Control.

PubMed

Reinhart, René Felix; Shareef, Zeeshan; Steil, Jochen Jakob

2017-02-08

Feed-forward model-based control relies on models of the controlled plant, e.g., in robotics on accurate knowledge of manipulator kinematics or dynamics. However, mechanical and analytical models do not capture all aspects of a plant's intrinsic properties and there remain unmodeled dynamics due to varying parameters, unmodeled friction or soft materials. In this context, machine learning is an alternative suitable technique to extract non-linear plant models from data. However, fully data-based models suffer from inaccuracies as well and are inefficient if they include learning of well known analytical models. This paper thus argues that feed-forward control based on hybrid models comprising an analytical model and a learned error model can significantly improve modeling accuracy. Hybrid modeling here serves the purpose to combine the best of the two modeling worlds. The hybrid modeling methodology is described and the approach is demonstrated for two typical problems in robotics, i.e., inverse kinematics control and computed torque control. The former is performed for a redundant soft robot and the latter for a rigid industrial robot with redundant degrees of freedom, where a complete analytical model is not available for any of the platforms.

New data-driven estimation of terrestrial CO2 fluxes in Asia using a standardized database of eddy covariance measurements, remote sensing data, and support vector regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichii, Kazuhito; Ueyama, Masahito; Kondo, Masayuki; Saigusa, Nobuko; Kim, Joon; Alberto, Ma. Carmelita; Ardö, Jonas; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Kang, Minseok; Hirano, Takashi; Joiner, Joanna; Kobayashi, Hideki; Marchesini, Luca Belelli; Merbold, Lutz; Miyata, Akira; Saitoh, Taku M.; Takagi, Kentaro; Varlagin, Andrej; Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia; Kitamura, Kenzo; Kosugi, Yoshiko; Kotani, Ayumi; Kumar, Kireet; Li, Sheng-Gong; Machimura, Takashi; Matsuura, Yojiro; Mizoguchi, Yasuko; Ohta, Takeshi; Mukherjee, Sandipan; Yanagi, Yuji; Yasuda, Yukio; Zhang, Yiping; Zhao, Fenghua

2017-04-01

The lack of a standardized database of eddy covariance observations has been an obstacle for data-driven estimation of terrestrial CO2 fluxes in Asia. In this study, we developed such a standardized database using 54 sites from various databases by applying consistent postprocessing for data-driven estimation of gross primary productivity (GPP) and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE). Data-driven estimation was conducted by using a machine learning algorithm: support vector regression (SVR), with remote sensing data for 2000 to 2015 period. Site-level evaluation of the estimated CO2 fluxes shows that although performance varies in different vegetation and climate classifications, GPP and NEE at 8 days are reproduced (e.g., r2 = 0.73 and 0.42 for 8 day GPP and NEE). Evaluation of spatially estimated GPP with Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2 sensor-based Sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence shows that monthly GPP variations at subcontinental scale were reproduced by SVR (r2 = 1.00, 0.94, 0.91, and 0.89 for Siberia, East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, respectively). Evaluation of spatially estimated NEE with net atmosphere-land CO2 fluxes of Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) Level 4A product shows that monthly variations of these data were consistent in Siberia and East Asia; meanwhile, inconsistency was found in South Asia and Southeast Asia. Furthermore, differences in the land CO2 fluxes from SVR-NEE and GOSAT Level 4A were partially explained by accounting for the differences in the definition of land CO2 fluxes. These data-driven estimates can provide a new opportunity to assess CO2 fluxes in Asia and evaluate and constrain terrestrial ecosystem models.

AnaBench: a Web/CORBA-based workbench for biomolecular sequence analysis

PubMed Central

Badidi, Elarbi; De Sousa, Cristina; Lang, B Franz; Burger, Gertraud

2003-01-01

Background Sequence data analyses such as gene identification, structure modeling or phylogenetic tree inference involve a variety of bioinformatics software tools. Due to the heterogeneity of bioinformatics tools in usage and data requirements, scientists spend much effort on technical issues including data format, storage and management of input and output, and memorization of numerous parameters and multi-step analysis procedures. Results In this paper, we present the design and implementation of AnaBench, an interactive, Web-based bioinformatics Analysis workBench allowing streamlined data analysis. Our philosophy was to minimize the technical effort not only for the scientist who uses this environment to analyze data, but also for the administrator who manages and maintains the workbench. With new bioinformatics tools published daily, AnaBench permits easy incorporation of additional tools. This flexibility is achieved by employing a three-tier distributed architecture and recent technologies including CORBA middleware, Java, JDBC, and JSP. A CORBA server permits transparent access to a workbench management database, which stores information about the users, their data, as well as the description of all bioinformatics applications that can be launched from the workbench. Conclusion AnaBench is an efficient and intuitive interactive bioinformatics environment, which offers scientists application-driven, data-driven and protocol-driven analysis approaches. The prototype of AnaBench, managed by a team at the Université de Montréal, is accessible on-line at: . Please contact the authors for details about setting up a local-network AnaBench site elsewhere. PMID:14678565

Analysis of neutral beam driven impurity flow reversal in PLT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Malik, M.A.; Stacey, W.M. Jr.; Thomas, C.E.

1986-10-01

The Stacey-Sigmar impurity transport theory for tokamak plasmas is applied to the analysis of experimental data from the PLT tokamak with a tungsten limiter. The drag term, which is a central piece in the theory, is evaluated from the recently developed gyroviscous theory for radial momentum transfer. An effort is made to base the modeling of the experiment on measured quantities. Where measured data is not available, recourse is made to extrapolation or numerical modeling. The theoretical and the experimental tungsten fluxes are shown to agree very closely within the uncertainties of the experimental data.

Strategies for concurrent processing of complex algorithms in data driven architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stoughton, John W.; Mielke, Roland R.

1988-01-01

Research directed at developing a graph theoretical model for describing data and control flow associated with the execution of large grained algorithms in a special distributed computer environment is presented. This model is identified by the acronym ATAMM which represents Algorithms To Architecture Mapping Model. The purpose of such a model is to provide a basis for establishing rules for relating an algorithm to its execution in a multiprocessor environment. Specifications derived from the model lead directly to the description of a data flow architecture which is a consequence of the inherent behavior of the data and control flow described by the model. The purpose of the ATAMM based architecture is to provide an analytical basis for performance evaluation. The ATAMM model and architecture specifications are demonstrated on a prototype system for concept validation.

Developing a Global Database of Historic Flood Events to Support Machine Learning Flood Prediction in Google Earth Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tellman, B.; Sullivan, J.; Kettner, A.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Slayback, D. A.; Kuhn, C.; Doyle, C.

2016-12-01

There is an increasing need to understand flood vulnerability as the societal and economic effects of flooding increases. Risk models from insurance companies and flood models from hydrologists must be calibrated based on flood observations in order to make future predictions that can improve planning and help societies reduce future disasters. Specifically, to improve these models both traditional methods of flood prediction from physically based models as well as data-driven techniques, such as machine learning, require spatial flood observation to validate model outputs and quantify uncertainty. A key dataset that is missing for flood model validation is a global historical geo-database of flood event extents. Currently, the most advanced database of historical flood extent is hosted and maintained at the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) that has catalogued 4320 floods (1985-2015) but has only mapped 5% of these floods. We are addressing this data gap by mapping the inventory of floods in the DFO database to create a first-of- its-kind, comprehensive, global and historical geospatial database of flood events. To do so, we combine water detection algorithms on MODIS and Landsat 5,7 and 8 imagery in Google Earth Engine to map discrete flood events. The created database will be available in the Earth Engine Catalogue for download by country, region, or time period. This dataset can be leveraged for new data-driven hydrologic modeling using machine learning algorithms in Earth Engine's highly parallelized computing environment, and we will show examples for New York and Senegal.

[An Electroencephalogram-driven Personalized Affective Music Player System: Algorithms and Preliminary Implementation].

PubMed

Ma, Yong; Li, Juan; Lu, Bin

2016-02-01

In order to monitor the emotional state changes of audience on real-time and to adjust the music playlist, we proposed an algorithm framework of an electroencephalogram (EEG) driven personalized affective music recommendation system based on the portable dry electrode shown in this paper. We also further finished a preliminary implementation on the Android platform. We used a two-dimensional emotional model of arousal and valence as the reference, and mapped the EEG data and the corresponding seed songs to the emotional coordinate quadrant in order to establish the matching relationship. Then, Mel frequency cepstrum coefficients were applied to evaluate the similarity between the seed songs and the songs in music library. In the end, during the music playing state, we used the EEG data to identify the audience's emotional state, and played and adjusted the corresponding song playlist based on the established matching relationship.

Air-Breathing Hypersonic Vehicle Tracking Control Based on Adaptive Dynamic Programming.

PubMed

Mu, Chaoxu; Ni, Zhen; Sun, Changyin; He, Haibo

2017-03-01

In this paper, we propose a data-driven supplementary control approach with adaptive learning capability for air-breathing hypersonic vehicle tracking control based on action-dependent heuristic dynamic programming (ADHDP). The control action is generated by the combination of sliding mode control (SMC) and the ADHDP controller to track the desired velocity and the desired altitude. In particular, the ADHDP controller observes the differences between the actual velocity/altitude and the desired velocity/altitude, and then provides a supplementary control action accordingly. The ADHDP controller does not rely on the accurate mathematical model function and is data driven. Meanwhile, it is capable to adjust its parameters online over time under various working conditions, which is very suitable for hypersonic vehicle system with parameter uncertainties and disturbances. We verify the adaptive supplementary control approach versus the traditional SMC in the cruising flight, and provide three simulation studies to illustrate the improved performance with the proposed approach.

Reprocessing the GRACE-derived gravity field time series based on data-driven method for ocean tide alias error mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Wei; Sneeuw, Nico; Jiang, Weiping

2017-04-01

GRACE mission has contributed greatly to the temporal gravity field monitoring in the past few years. However, ocean tides cause notable alias errors for single-pair spaceborne gravimetry missions like GRACE in two ways. First, undersampling from satellite orbit induces the aliasing of high-frequency tidal signals into the gravity signal. Second, ocean tide models used for de-aliasing in the gravity field retrieval carry errors, which will directly alias into the recovered gravity field. GRACE satellites are in non-repeat orbit, disabling the alias error spectral estimation based on the repeat period. Moreover, the gravity field recovery is conducted in non-strictly monthly interval and has occasional gaps, which result in an unevenly sampled time series. In view of the two aspects above, we investigate the data-driven method to mitigate the ocean tide alias error in a post-processing mode.

Reverse engineering systems models of regulation: discovery, prediction and mechanisms.

PubMed

Ashworth, Justin; Wurtmann, Elisabeth J; Baliga, Nitin S

2012-08-01

Biological systems can now be understood in comprehensive and quantitative detail using systems biology approaches. Putative genome-scale models can be built rapidly based upon biological inventories and strategic system-wide molecular measurements. Current models combine statistical associations, causative abstractions, and known molecular mechanisms to explain and predict quantitative and complex phenotypes. This top-down 'reverse engineering' approach generates useful organism-scale models despite noise and incompleteness in data and knowledge. Here we review and discuss the reverse engineering of biological systems using top-down data-driven approaches, in order to improve discovery, hypothesis generation, and the inference of biological properties. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Data-driven region-of-interest selection without inflating Type I error rate.

PubMed

Brooks, Joseph L; Zoumpoulaki, Alexia; Bowman, Howard

2017-01-01

In ERP and other large multidimensional neuroscience data sets, researchers often select regions of interest (ROIs) for analysis. The method of ROI selection can critically affect the conclusions of a study by causing the researcher to miss effects in the data or to detect spurious effects. In practice, to avoid inflating Type I error rate (i.e., false positives), ROIs are often based on a priori hypotheses or independent information. However, this can be insensitive to experiment-specific variations in effect location (e.g., latency shifts) reducing power to detect effects. Data-driven ROI selection, in contrast, is nonindependent and uses the data under analysis to determine ROI positions. Therefore, it has potential to select ROIs based on experiment-specific information and increase power for detecting effects. However, data-driven methods have been criticized because they can substantially inflate Type I error rate. Here, we demonstrate, using simulations of simple ERP experiments, that data-driven ROI selection can indeed be more powerful than a priori hypotheses or independent information. Furthermore, we show that data-driven ROI selection using the aggregate grand average from trials (AGAT), despite being based on the data at hand, can be safely used for ROI selection under many circumstances. However, when there is a noise difference between conditions, using the AGAT can inflate Type I error and should be avoided. We identify critical assumptions for use of the AGAT and provide a basis for researchers to use, and reviewers to assess, data-driven methods of ROI localization in ERP and other studies. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Assessment of exploration bias in data-driven predictive models and the estimation of undiscovered resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coolbaugh, M.F.; Raines, G.L.; Zehner, R.E.

2007-01-01

The spatial distribution of discovered resources may not fully mimic the distribution of all such resources, discovered and undiscovered, because the process of discovery is biased by accessibility factors (e.g., outcrops, roads, and lakes) and by exploration criteria. In data-driven predictive models, the use of training sites (resource occurrences) biased by exploration criteria and accessibility does not necessarily translate to a biased predictive map. However, problems occur when evidence layers correlate with these same exploration factors. These biases then can produce a data-driven model that predicts known occurrences well, but poorly predicts undiscovered resources. Statistical assessment of correlation between evidence layers and map-based exploration factors is difficult because it is difficult to quantify the "degree of exploration." However, if such a degree-of-exploration map can be produced, the benefits can be enormous. Not only does it become possible to assess this correlation, but it becomes possible to predict undiscovered, instead of discovered, resources. Using geothermal systems in Nevada, USA, as an example, a degree-of-exploration model is created, which then is resolved into purely explored and unexplored equivalents, each occurring within coextensive study areas. A weights-of-evidence (WofE) model is built first without regard to the degree of exploration, and then a revised WofE model is calculated for the "explored fraction" only. Differences in the weights between the two models provide a correlation measure between the evidence and the degree of exploration. The data used to build the geothermal evidence layers are perceived to be independent of degree of exploration. Nevertheless, the evidence layers correlate with exploration because exploration has preferred the same favorable areas identified by the evidence patterns. In this circumstance, however, the weights for the "explored" WofE model minimize this bias. Using these revised weights, posterior probability is extrapolated into unexplored areas to estimate undiscovered deposits. ?? International Association for Mathematical Geology 2007.

Helioseismic and neutrino data-driven reconstruction of solar properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Ningqiang; Gonzalez-Garcia, M. C.; Villante, Francesco L.; Vinyoles, Nuria; Serenelli, Aldo

2018-06-01

In this work, we use Bayesian inference to quantitatively reconstruct the solar properties most relevant to the solar composition problem using as inputs the information provided by helioseismic and solar neutrino data. In particular, we use a Gaussian process to model the functional shape of the opacity uncertainty to gain flexibility and become as free as possible from prejudice in this regard. With these tools we first readdress the statistical significance of the solar composition problem. Furthermore, starting from a composition unbiased set of standard solar models (SSMs) we are able to statistically select those with solar chemical composition and other solar inputs which better describe the helioseismic and neutrino observations. In particular, we are able to reconstruct the solar opacity profile in a data-driven fashion, independently of any reference opacity tables, obtaining a 4 per cent uncertainty at the base of the convective envelope and 0.8 per cent at the solar core. When systematic uncertainties are included, results are 7.5 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively. In addition, we find that the values of most of the other inputs of the SSMs required to better describe the helioseismic and neutrino data are in good agreement with those adopted as the standard priors, with the exception of the astrophysical factor S11 and the microscopic diffusion rates, for which data suggests a 1 per cent and 30 per cent reduction, respectively. As an output of the study we derive the corresponding data-driven predictions for the solar neutrino fluxes.

Algebraic reasoning for the enhancement of data-driven building reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meidow, Jochen; Hammer, Horst

2016-04-01

Data-driven approaches for the reconstruction of buildings feature the flexibility needed to capture objects of arbitrary shape. To recognize man-made structures, geometric relations such as orthogonality or parallelism have to be detected. These constraints are typically formulated as sets of multivariate polynomials. For the enforcement of the constraints within an adjustment process, a set of independent and consistent geometric constraints has to be determined. Gröbner bases are an ideal tool to identify such sets exactly. A complete workflow for geometric reasoning is presented to obtain boundary representations of solids based on given point clouds. The constraints are formulated in homogeneous coordinates, which results in simple polynomials suitable for the successful derivation of Gröbner bases for algebraic reasoning. Strategies for the reduction of the algebraical complexity are presented. To enforce the constraints, an adjustment model is introduced, which is able to cope with homogeneous coordinates along with their singular covariance matrices. The feasibility and the potential of the approach are demonstrated by the analysis of a real data set.

Mechanical-magnetic-electric coupled behaviors for stress-driven Terfenol-D energy harvester

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Shuying; Zheng, Jiaju; Wang, Bowen; Pan, Ruzheng; Zhao, Ran; Weng, Ling; Sun, Ying; Liu, Chengcheng

2017-05-01

The stress-driven Terfernol-D energy harvester exhibits the nonlinear mechanical-magnetic-electric coupled (MMEC) behaviors and the eddy current effects. To analyze and design the device, it is necessary to establish an accurate model of the device. Based on the effective magnetic field expression, the constitutive equations with eddy currents and variable coefficients, and the dynamic equations, a nonlinear dynamic MMEC model for the device is founded. Comparisons between the measured and calculated results show that the model can describe the nonlinear coupled curves of magnetization versus stress and strain versus stress under different bias fields, and can provide the reasonable data trends of piezomagnetic coefficients, Young's modulus and relative permeability for Terfenol-D. Moreover, the calculated power results show that the model can determine the optimal bias conditions, optimal resistance, suitable proof mass, suitable slices for the maximum energy extraction of the device under broad stress amplitude and broad frequency.

Algorithms and architecture for multiprocessor based circuit simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deutsch, J.T.

Accurate electrical simulation is critical to the design of high performance integrated circuits. Logic simulators can verify function and give first-order timing information. Switch level simulators are more effective at dealing with charge sharing than standard logic simulators, but cannot provide accurate timing information or discover DC problems. Delay estimation techniques and cell level simulation can be used in constrained design methods, but must be tuned for each application, and circuit simulation must still be used to generate the cell models. None of these methods has the guaranteed accuracy that many circuit designers desire, and none can provide detailed waveformmore » information. Detailed electrical-level simulation can predict circuit performance if devices and parasitics are modeled accurately. However, the computational requirements of conventional circuit simulators make it impractical to simulate current large circuits. In this dissertation, the implementation of Iterated Timing Analysis (ITA), a relaxation-based technique for accurate circuit simulation, on a special-purpose multiprocessor is presented. The ITA method is an SOR-Newton, relaxation-based method which uses event-driven analysis and selective trace to exploit the temporal sparsity of the electrical network. Because event-driven selective trace techniques are employed, this algorithm lends itself to implementation on a data-driven computer.« less

Live Speech Driven Head-and-Eye Motion Generators.

PubMed

Le, Binh H; Ma, Xiaohan; Deng, Zhigang

2012-11-01

This paper describes a fully automated framework to generate realistic head motion, eye gaze, and eyelid motion simultaneously based on live (or recorded) speech input. Its central idea is to learn separate yet interrelated statistical models for each component (head motion, gaze, or eyelid motion) from a prerecorded facial motion data set: 1) Gaussian Mixture Models and gradient descent optimization algorithm are employed to generate head motion from speech features; 2) Nonlinear Dynamic Canonical Correlation Analysis model is used to synthesize eye gaze from head motion and speech features, and 3) nonnegative linear regression is used to model voluntary eye lid motion and log-normal distribution is used to describe involuntary eye blinks. Several user studies are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed speech-driven head and eye motion generator using the well-established paired comparison methodology. Our evaluation results clearly show that this approach can significantly outperform the state-of-the-art head and eye motion generation algorithms. In addition, a novel mocap+video hybrid data acquisition technique is introduced to record high-fidelity head movement, eye gaze, and eyelid motion simultaneously.

Data-Driven Modeling of Complex Systems by means of a Dynamical ANN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seleznev, A.; Mukhin, D.; Gavrilov, A.; Loskutov, E.; Feigin, A.

2017-12-01

The data-driven methods for modeling and prognosis of complex dynamical systems become more and more popular in various fields due to growth of high-resolution data. We distinguish the two basic steps in such an approach: (i) determining the phase subspace of the system, or embedding, from available time series and (ii) constructing an evolution operator acting in this reduced subspace. In this work we suggest a novel approach combining these two steps by means of construction of an artificial neural network (ANN) with special topology. The proposed ANN-based model, on the one hand, projects the data onto a low-dimensional manifold, and, on the other hand, models a dynamical system on this manifold. Actually, this is a recurrent multilayer ANN which has internal dynamics and capable of generating time series. Very important point of the proposed methodology is the optimization of the model allowing us to avoid overfitting: we use Bayesian criterion to optimize the ANN structure and estimate both the degree of evolution operator nonlinearity and the complexity of nonlinear manifold which the data are projected on. The proposed modeling technique will be applied to the analysis of high-dimensional dynamical systems: Lorenz'96 model of atmospheric turbulence, producing high-dimensional space-time chaos, and quasi-geostrophic three-layer model of the Earth's atmosphere with the natural orography, describing the dynamics of synoptical vortexes as well as mesoscale blocking systems. The possibility of application of the proposed methodology to analyze real measured data is also discussed. The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (grant #16-12-10198).

The Impact of Data-Based Science Instruction on Standardized Test Performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrington, Tia W.

Increased teacher accountability efforts have resulted in the use of data to improve student achievement. This study addressed teachers' inconsistent use of data-driven instruction in middle school science. Evidence of the impact of data-based instruction on student achievement and school and district practices has been well documented by researchers. In science, less information has been available on teachers' use of data for classroom instruction. Drawing on data-driven decision making theory, the purpose of this study was to examine whether data-based instruction impacted performance on the science Criterion Referenced Competency Test (CRCT) and to explore the factors that impeded its use by a purposeful sample of 12 science teachers at a data-driven school. The research questions addressed in this study included understanding: (a) the association between student performance on the science portion of the CRCT and data-driven instruction professional development, (b) middle school science teachers' perception of the usefulness of data, and (c) the factors that hindered the use of data for science instruction. This study employed a mixed methods sequential explanatory design. Data collected included 8th grade CRCT data, survey responses, and individual teacher interviews. A chi-square test revealed no improvement in the CRCT scores following the implementation of professional development on data-driven instruction (chi 2 (1) = .183, p = .67). Results from surveys and interviews revealed that teachers used data to inform their instruction, indicating time as the major hindrance to their use. Implications for social change include the development of lesson plans that will empower science teachers to deliver data-based instruction and students to achieve identified academic goals.

Reconstruction of dynamical systems from resampled point processes produced by neuron models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavlova, Olga N.; Pavlov, Alexey N.

2018-04-01

Characterization of dynamical features of chaotic oscillations from point processes is based on embedding theorems for non-uniformly sampled signals such as the sequences of interspike intervals (ISIs). This theoretical background confirms the ability of attractor reconstruction from ISIs generated by chaotically driven neuron models. The quality of such reconstruction depends on the available length of the analyzed dataset. We discuss how data resampling improves the reconstruction for short amount of data and show that this effect is observed for different types of mechanisms for spike generation.

An ISA-TAB-Nano based data collection framework to support data-driven modelling of nanotoxicology.

PubMed

Marchese Robinson, Richard L; Cronin, Mark T D; Richarz, Andrea-Nicole; Rallo, Robert

2015-01-01

Analysis of trends in nanotoxicology data and the development of data driven models for nanotoxicity is facilitated by the reporting of data using a standardised electronic format. ISA-TAB-Nano has been proposed as such a format. However, in order to build useful datasets according to this format, a variety of issues has to be addressed. These issues include questions regarding exactly which (meta)data to report and how to report them. The current article discusses some of the challenges associated with the use of ISA-TAB-Nano and presents a set of resources designed to facilitate the manual creation of ISA-TAB-Nano datasets from the nanotoxicology literature. These resources were developed within the context of the NanoPUZZLES EU project and include data collection templates, corresponding business rules that extend the generic ISA-TAB-Nano specification as well as Python code to facilitate parsing and integration of these datasets within other nanoinformatics resources. The use of these resources is illustrated by a "Toy Dataset" presented in the Supporting Information. The strengths and weaknesses of the resources are discussed along with possible future developments.

An ISA-TAB-Nano based data collection framework to support data-driven modelling of nanotoxicology

PubMed Central

Marchese Robinson, Richard L; Richarz, Andrea-Nicole; Rallo, Robert

2015-01-01

Summary Analysis of trends in nanotoxicology data and the development of data driven models for nanotoxicity is facilitated by the reporting of data using a standardised electronic format. ISA-TAB-Nano has been proposed as such a format. However, in order to build useful datasets according to this format, a variety of issues has to be addressed. These issues include questions regarding exactly which (meta)data to report and how to report them. The current article discusses some of the challenges associated with the use of ISA-TAB-Nano and presents a set of resources designed to facilitate the manual creation of ISA-TAB-Nano datasets from the nanotoxicology literature. These resources were developed within the context of the NanoPUZZLES EU project and include data collection templates, corresponding business rules that extend the generic ISA-TAB-Nano specification as well as Python code to facilitate parsing and integration of these datasets within other nanoinformatics resources. The use of these resources is illustrated by a “Toy Dataset” presented in the Supporting Information. The strengths and weaknesses of the resources are discussed along with possible future developments. PMID:26665069

The NTeQ ISD Model: A Tech-Driven Model for Digital Natives (DNs)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, C.; Anekwe, J. U.

2017-01-01

Integrating Technology for enquiry (NTeQ) instructional development model (ISD), is believed to be a technology-driven model. The authors x-rayed the ten-step model to reaffirm the ICT knowledge demand of the learner and the educator; hence computer-based activities at various stages of the model are core elements. The model also is conscious of…

Efficient GIS-based model-driven method for flood risk management and its application in central China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Zhou, J.; Song, L.; Zou, Q.; Guo, J.; Wang, Y.

2014-02-01

In recent years, an important development in flood management has been the focal shift from flood protection towards flood risk management. This change greatly promoted the progress of flood control research in a multidisciplinary way. Moreover, given the growing complexity and uncertainty in many decision situations of flood risk management, traditional methods, e.g., tight-coupling integration of one or more quantitative models, are not enough to provide decision support for managers. Within this context, this paper presents a beneficial methodological framework to enhance the effectiveness of decision support systems, through the dynamic adaptation of support regarding the needs of the decision-maker. In addition, we illustrate a loose-coupling technical prototype for integrating heterogeneous elements, such as multi-source data, multidisciplinary models, GIS tools and existing systems. The main innovation is the application of model-driven concepts, which put the system in a state of continuous iterative optimization. We define the new system as a model-driven decision support system (MDSS ). Two characteristics that differentiate the MDSS are as follows: (1) it is made accessible to non-technical specialists; and (2) it has a higher level of adaptability and compatibility. Furthermore, the MDSS was employed to manage the flood risk in the Jingjiang flood diversion area, located in central China near the Yangtze River. Compared with traditional solutions, we believe that this model-driven method is efficient, adaptable and flexible, and thus has bright prospects of application for comprehensive flood risk management.

A data driven approach using Takagi-Sugeno models for computationally efficient lumped floodplain modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolfs, Vincent; Willems, Patrick

2013-10-01

Many applications in support of water management decisions require hydrodynamic models with limited calculation time, including real time control of river flooding, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses by Monte-Carlo simulations, and long term simulations in support of the statistical analysis of the model simulation results (e.g. flood frequency analysis). Several computationally efficient hydrodynamic models exist, but little attention is given to the modelling of floodplains. This paper presents a methodology that can emulate output from a full hydrodynamic model by predicting one or several levels in a floodplain, together with the flow rate between river and floodplain. The overtopping of the embankment is modelled as an overflow at a weir. Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) are exploited to cope with the varying factors affecting the flow. Different input sets and identification methods are considered in model construction. Because of the dual use of simplified physically based equations and data-driven techniques, the ANFIS consist of very few rules with a low number of input variables. A second calculation scheme can be followed for exceptionally large floods. The obtained nominal emulation model was tested for four floodplains along the river Dender in Belgium. Results show that the obtained models are accurate with low computational cost.

qPortal: A platform for data-driven biomedical research.

PubMed

Mohr, Christopher; Friedrich, Andreas; Wojnar, David; Kenar, Erhan; Polatkan, Aydin Can; Codrea, Marius Cosmin; Czemmel, Stefan; Kohlbacher, Oliver; Nahnsen, Sven

2018-01-01

Modern biomedical research aims at drawing biological conclusions from large, highly complex biological datasets. It has become common practice to make extensive use of high-throughput technologies that produce big amounts of heterogeneous data. In addition to the ever-improving accuracy, methods are getting faster and cheaper, resulting in a steadily increasing need for scalable data management and easily accessible means of analysis. We present qPortal, a platform providing users with an intuitive way to manage and analyze quantitative biological data. The backend leverages a variety of concepts and technologies, such as relational databases, data stores, data models and means of data transfer, as well as front-end solutions to give users access to data management and easy-to-use analysis options. Users are empowered to conduct their experiments from the experimental design to the visualization of their results through the platform. Here, we illustrate the feature-rich portal by simulating a biomedical study based on publically available data. We demonstrate the software's strength in supporting the entire project life cycle. The software supports the project design and registration, empowers users to do all-digital project management and finally provides means to perform analysis. We compare our approach to Galaxy, one of the most widely used scientific workflow and analysis platforms in computational biology. Application of both systems to a small case study shows the differences between a data-driven approach (qPortal) and a workflow-driven approach (Galaxy). qPortal, a one-stop-shop solution for biomedical projects offers up-to-date analysis pipelines, quality control workflows, and visualization tools. Through intensive user interactions, appropriate data models have been developed. These models build the foundation of our biological data management system and provide possibilities to annotate data, query metadata for statistics and future re-analysis on high-performance computing systems via coupling of workflow management systems. Integration of project and data management as well as workflow resources in one place present clear advantages over existing solutions.

A dynamic, climate-driven model of Rift Valley fever.

PubMed

Leedale, Joseph; Jones, Anne E; Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andrew P

2016-03-31

Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in eastern Africa have previously occurred following specific rainfall dynamics and flooding events that appear to support the emergence of large numbers of mosquito vectors. As such, transmission of the virus is considered to be sensitive to environmental conditions and therefore changes in climate can impact the spatiotemporal dynamics of epizootic vulnerability. Epidemiological information describing the methods and parameters of RVF transmission and its dependence on climatic factors are used to develop a new spatio-temporal mathematical model that simulates these dynamics and can predict the impact of changes in climate. The Liverpool RVF (LRVF) model is a new dynamic, process-based model driven by climate data that provides a predictive output of geographical changes in RVF outbreak susceptibility as a result of the climate and local livestock immunity. This description of the multi-disciplinary process of model development is accessible to mathematicians, epidemiological modellers and climate scientists, uniting dynamic mathematical modelling, empirical parameterisation and state-of-the-art climate information.

Model-driven approach to data collection and reporting for quality improvement.

PubMed

Curcin, Vasa; Woodcock, Thomas; Poots, Alan J; Majeed, Azeem; Bell, Derek

2014-12-01

Continuous data collection and analysis have been shown essential to achieving improvement in healthcare. However, the data required for local improvement initiatives are often not readily available from hospital Electronic Health Record (EHR) systems or not routinely collected. Furthermore, improvement teams are often restricted in time and funding thus requiring inexpensive and rapid tools to support their work. Hence, the informatics challenge in healthcare local improvement initiatives consists of providing a mechanism for rapid modelling of the local domain by non-informatics experts, including performance metric definitions, and grounded in established improvement techniques. We investigate the feasibility of a model-driven software approach to address this challenge, whereby an improvement model designed by a team is used to automatically generate required electronic data collection instruments and reporting tools. To that goal, we have designed a generic Improvement Data Model (IDM) to capture the data items and quality measures relevant to the project, and constructed Web Improvement Support in Healthcare (WISH), a prototype tool that takes user-generated IDM models and creates a data schema, data collection web interfaces, and a set of live reports, based on Statistical Process Control (SPC) for use by improvement teams. The software has been successfully used in over 50 improvement projects, with more than 700 users. We present in detail the experiences of one of those initiatives, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease project in Northwest London hospitals. The specific challenges of improvement in healthcare are analysed and the benefits and limitations of the approach are discussed. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Information driving force and its application in agent-based modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ting-Ting; Zheng, Bo; Li, Yan; Jiang, Xiong-Fei

2018-04-01

Exploring the scientific impact of online big-data has attracted much attention of researchers from different fields in recent years. Complex financial systems are typical open systems profoundly influenced by the external information. Based on the large-scale data in the public media and stock markets, we first define an information driving force, and analyze how it affects the complex financial system. The information driving force is observed to be asymmetric in the bull and bear market states. As an application, we then propose an agent-based model driven by the information driving force. Especially, all the key parameters are determined from the empirical analysis rather than from statistical fitting of the simulation results. With our model, both the stationary properties and non-stationary dynamic behaviors are simulated. Considering the mean-field effect of the external information, we also propose a few-body model to simulate the financial market in the laboratory.

Astrophysics and Big Data: Challenges, Methods, and Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garofalo, Mauro; Botta, Alessio; Ventre, Giorgio

2017-06-01

Nowadays there is no field research which is not flooded with data. Among the sciences, astrophysics has always been driven by the analysis of massive amounts of data. The development of new and more sophisticated observation facilities, both ground-based and spaceborne, has led data more and more complex (Variety), an exponential growth of both data Volume (i.e., in the order of petabytes), and Velocity in terms of production and transmission. Therefore, new and advanced processing solutions will be needed to process this huge amount of data. We investigate some of these solutions, based on machine learning models as well as tools and architectures for Big Data analysis that can be exploited in the astrophysical context.

Virtual sensor models for real-time applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hirsenkorn, Nils; Hanke, Timo; Rauch, Andreas; Dehlink, Bernhard; Rasshofer, Ralph; Biebl, Erwin

2016-09-01

Increased complexity and severity of future driver assistance systems demand extensive testing and validation. As supplement to road tests, driving simulations offer various benefits. For driver assistance functions the perception of the sensors is crucial. Therefore, sensors also have to be modeled. In this contribution, a statistical data-driven sensor-model, is described. The state-space based method is capable of modeling various types behavior. In this contribution, the modeling of the position estimation of an automotive radar system, including autocorrelations, is presented. For rendering real-time capability, an efficient implementation is presented.

Designing a data portal for synthesis modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmes, M. A.

2006-12-01

Processing of field and model data in multi-disciplinary integrated science studies is a vital part of synthesis modeling. Collection and storage techniques for field data vary greatly between the participating scientific disciplines due to the nature of the data being collected, whether it be in situ, remotely sensed, or recorded by automated data logging equipment. Spreadsheets, personal databases, text files and binary files are used in the initial storage and processing of the raw data. In order to be useful to scientists, engineers and modelers the data need to be stored in a format that is easily identifiable, accessible and transparent to a variety of computing environments. The Model Operations and Synthesis (MOAS) database and associated web portal were created to provide such capabilities. The industry standard relational database is comprised of spatial and temporal data tables, shape files and supporting metadata accessible over the network, through a menu driven web-based portal or spatially accessible through ArcSDE connections from the user's local GIS desktop software. A separate server provides public access to spatial data and model output in the form of attributed shape files through an ArcIMS web-based graphical user interface.

Statistical description of turbulent transport for flux driven toroidal plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, J.; Imadera, K.; Kishimoto, Y.; Li, J. Q.; Nordman, H.

2017-06-01

A novel methodology to analyze non-Gaussian probability distribution functions (PDFs) of intermittent turbulent transport in global full-f gyrokinetic simulations is presented. In this work, the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is applied to time series data of intermittent turbulent heat transport to separate noise and oscillatory trends, allowing for the extraction of non-Gaussian features of the PDFs. It was shown that non-Gaussian tails of the PDFs from first principles based gyrokinetic simulations agree with an analytical estimation based on a two fluid model.

Paving the COWpath: data-driven design of pediatric order sets

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yiye; Padman, Rema; Levin, James E

2014-01-01

Objective Evidence indicates that users incur significant physical and cognitive costs in the use of order sets, a core feature of computerized provider order entry systems. This paper develops data-driven approaches for automating the construction of order sets that match closely with user preferences and workflow while minimizing physical and cognitive workload. Materials and methods We developed and tested optimization-based models embedded with clustering techniques using physical and cognitive click cost criteria. By judiciously learning from users’ actual actions, our methods identify items for constituting order sets that are relevant according to historical ordering data and grouped on the basis of order similarity and ordering time. We evaluated performance of the methods using 47 099 orders from the year 2011 for asthma, appendectomy and pneumonia management in a pediatric inpatient setting. Results In comparison with existing order sets, those developed using the new approach significantly reduce the physical and cognitive workload associated with usage by 14–52%. This approach is also capable of accommodating variations in clinical conditions that affect order set usage and development. Discussion There is a critical need to investigate the cognitive complexity imposed on users by complex clinical information systems, and to design their features according to ‘human factors’ best practices. Optimizing order set generation using cognitive cost criteria introduces a new approach that can potentially improve ordering efficiency, reduce unintended variations in order placement, and enhance patient safety. Conclusions We demonstrate that data-driven methods offer a promising approach for designing order sets that are generalizable, data-driven, condition-based, and up to date with current best practices. PMID:24674844

Cryo-EM Data Are Superior to Contact and Interface Information in Integrative Modeling.

PubMed

de Vries, Sjoerd J; Chauvot de Beauchêne, Isaure; Schindler, Christina E M; Zacharias, Martin

2016-02-23

Protein-protein interactions carry out a large variety of essential cellular processes. Cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) is a powerful technique for the modeling of protein-protein interactions at a wide range of resolutions, and recent developments have caused a revolution in the field. At low resolution, cryo-EM maps can drive integrative modeling of the interaction, assembling existing structures into the map. Other experimental techniques can provide information on the interface or on the contacts between the monomers in the complex. This inevitably raises the question regarding which type of data is best suited to drive integrative modeling approaches. Systematic comparison of the prediction accuracy and specificity of the different integrative modeling paradigms is unavailable to date. Here, we compare EM-driven, interface-driven, and contact-driven integrative modeling paradigms. Models were generated for the protein docking benchmark using the ATTRACT docking engine and evaluated using the CAPRI two-star criterion. At 20 Å resolution, EM-driven modeling achieved a success rate of 100%, outperforming the other paradigms even with perfect interface and contact information. Therefore, even very low resolution cryo-EM data is superior in predicting heterodimeric and heterotrimeric protein assemblies. Our study demonstrates that a force field is not necessary, cryo-EM data alone is sufficient to accurately guide the monomers into place. The resulting rigid models successfully identify regions of conformational change, opening up perspectives for targeted flexible remodeling. Copyright © 2016 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cryo-EM Data Are Superior to Contact and Interface Information in Integrative Modeling

PubMed Central

de Vries, Sjoerd J.; Chauvot de Beauchêne, Isaure; Schindler, Christina E.M.; Zacharias, Martin

2016-01-01

Protein-protein interactions carry out a large variety of essential cellular processes. Cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) is a powerful technique for the modeling of protein-protein interactions at a wide range of resolutions, and recent developments have caused a revolution in the field. At low resolution, cryo-EM maps can drive integrative modeling of the interaction, assembling existing structures into the map. Other experimental techniques can provide information on the interface or on the contacts between the monomers in the complex. This inevitably raises the question regarding which type of data is best suited to drive integrative modeling approaches. Systematic comparison of the prediction accuracy and specificity of the different integrative modeling paradigms is unavailable to date. Here, we compare EM-driven, interface-driven, and contact-driven integrative modeling paradigms. Models were generated for the protein docking benchmark using the ATTRACT docking engine and evaluated using the CAPRI two-star criterion. At 20 Å resolution, EM-driven modeling achieved a success rate of 100%, outperforming the other paradigms even with perfect interface and contact information. Therefore, even very low resolution cryo-EM data is superior in predicting heterodimeric and heterotrimeric protein assemblies. Our study demonstrates that a force field is not necessary, cryo-EM data alone is sufficient to accurately guide the monomers into place. The resulting rigid models successfully identify regions of conformational change, opening up perspectives for targeted flexible remodeling. PMID:26846888

Knowledge-driven computational modeling in Alzheimer's disease research: Current state and future trends.

PubMed

Geerts, Hugo; Hofmann-Apitius, Martin; Anastasio, Thomas J

2017-11-01

Neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's disease (AD) follow a slowly progressing dysfunctional trajectory, with a large presymptomatic component and many comorbidities. Using preclinical models and large-scale omics studies ranging from genetics to imaging, a large number of processes that might be involved in AD pathology at different stages and levels have been identified. The sheer number of putative hypotheses makes it almost impossible to estimate their contribution to the clinical outcome and to develop a comprehensive view on the pathological processes driving the clinical phenotype. Traditionally, bioinformatics approaches have provided correlations and associations between processes and phenotypes. Focusing on causality, a new breed of advanced and more quantitative modeling approaches that use formalized domain expertise offer new opportunities to integrate these different modalities and outline possible paths toward new therapeutic interventions. This article reviews three different computational approaches and their possible complementarities. Process algebras, implemented using declarative programming languages such as Maude, facilitate simulation and analysis of complicated biological processes on a comprehensive but coarse-grained level. A model-driven Integration of Data and Knowledge, based on the OpenBEL platform and using reverse causative reasoning and network jump analysis, can generate mechanistic knowledge and a new, mechanism-based taxonomy of disease. Finally, Quantitative Systems Pharmacology is based on formalized implementation of domain expertise in a more fine-grained, mechanism-driven, quantitative, and predictive humanized computer model. We propose a strategy to combine the strengths of these individual approaches for developing powerful modeling methodologies that can provide actionable knowledge for rational development of preventive and therapeutic interventions. Development of these computational approaches is likely to be required for further progress in understanding and treating AD. Copyright © 2017 the Alzheimer's Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

WebGL Visualisation of 3D Environmental Models Based on Finnish Open Geospatial Data Sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krooks, A.; Kahkonen, J.; Lehto, L.; Latvala, P.; Karjalainen, M.; Honkavaara, E.

2014-08-01

Recent developments in spatial data infrastructures have enabled real time GIS analysis and visualization using open input data sources and service interfaces. In this study we present a new concept where metric point clouds derived from national open airborne laser scanning (ALS) and photogrammetric image data are processed, analyzed, finally visualised a through open service interfaces to produce user-driven analysis products from targeted areas. The concept is demonstrated in three environmental applications: assessment of forest storm damages, assessment of volumetric changes in open pit mine and 3D city model visualization. One of the main objectives was to study the usability and requirements of national level photogrammetric imagery in these applications. The results demonstrated that user driven 3D geospatial analyses were possible with the proposed approach and current technology, for instance, the landowner could assess the amount of fallen trees within his property borders after a storm easily using any web browser. On the other hand, our study indicated that there are still many uncertainties especially due to the insufficient standardization of photogrammetric products and processes and their quality indicators.

Detecting robust signals of interannual variability of gross primary productivity in Asia from multiple terrestrial carbon cycle models and long-term satellite-based vegetation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichii, K.; Kondo, M.; Ueyama, M.; Kato, T.; Ito, A.; Sasai, T.; Sato, H.; Kobayashi, H.; Saigusa, N.

2014-12-01

Long term record of satellite-based terrestrial vegetation are important to evaluate terrestrial carbon cycle models. In this study, we demonstrate how multiple satellite observation can be used for evaluating past changes in gross primary productivity (GPP) and detecting robust anomalies in terrestrial carbon cycle in Asia through our model-data synthesis analysis, Asia-MIP. We focused on the two different temporal coverages: long-term (30 years; 1982-2011) and decadal (10 years; 2001-2011; data intensive period) scales. We used a NOAA/AVHRR NDVI record for long-term analysis and multiple satellite data and products (e.g. Terra-MODIS, SPOT-VEGETATION) as historical satellite data, and multiple terrestrial carbon cycle models (e.g. BEAMS, Biome-BGC, ORCHIDEE, SEIB-DGVM, and VISIT). As a results of long-term (30 years) trend analysis, satellite-based time-series data showed that approximately 40% of the area has experienced a significant increase in the NDVI, while only a few areas have experienced a significant decreasing trend over the last 30 years. The increases in the NDVI were dominant in the sub-continental regions of Siberia, East Asia, and India. Simulations using the terrestrial biosphere models also showed significant increases in GPP, similar to the results for the NDVI, in boreal and temperate regions. A modeled sensitivity analysis showed that the increases in GPP are explained by increased temperature and precipitation in Siberia. Precipitation, solar radiation, CO2fertilization and land cover changes are important factors in the tropical regions. However, the relative contributions of each factor to GPP changes are different among the models. Year-to-year variations of terrestrial GPP were overall consistently captured by the satellite data and terrestrial carbon cycle models if the anomalies are large (e.g. 2003 summer GPP anomalies in East Asia and 2002 spring GPP anomalies in mid to high latitudes). The behind mechanisms can be consistently explained by the models if the anomalies are caused in the low temperature regions (e.g. spring in Northern Asia). However, water-driven or radiation-driven GPP anomalies lacks consistent explanation among models. Therefore, terrestrial carbon cycle models require improvement of the sensitivity of climate anomalies to carbon cycles.

CP violation in multibody B decays from QCD factorization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, Rebecca; Mannel, Thomas; Virto, Javier; Vos, K. Keri

2017-10-01

We test a data-driven approach based on QCD factorization for charmless three-body B-decays by confronting it to measurements of CP violation in B - → π - π + π -. While some of the needed non-perturbative objects can be directly extracted from data, some others can, so far, only be modelled. Although this approach is currently model dependent, we comment on the perspectives to reduce this model dependence. While our model naturally accommodates the gross features of the Dalitz distribution, it cannot quantitatively explain the details seen in the current experimental data on local CP asymmetries. We comment on possible refinements of our simple model and conclude by briefly discussing a possible extension of the model to large invariant masses, where large local CP asymmetries have been measured.

Development and validation of a turbulent-mix model for variable-density and compressible flows.

PubMed

Banerjee, Arindam; Gore, Robert A; Andrews, Malcolm J

2010-10-01

The modeling of buoyancy driven turbulent flows is considered in conjunction with an advanced statistical turbulence model referred to as the BHR (Besnard-Harlow-Rauenzahn) k-S-a model. The BHR k-S-a model is focused on variable-density and compressible flows such as Rayleigh-Taylor (RT), Richtmyer-Meshkov (RM), and Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) driven mixing. The BHR k-S-a turbulence mix model has been implemented in the RAGE hydro-code, and model constants are evaluated based on analytical self-similar solutions of the model equations. The results are then compared with a large test database available from experiments and direct numerical simulations (DNS) of RT, RM, and KH driven mixing. Furthermore, we describe research to understand how the BHR k-S-a turbulence model operates over a range of moderate to high Reynolds number buoyancy driven flows, with a goal of placing the modeling of buoyancy driven turbulent flows at the same level of development as that of single phase shear flows.

Rainfall extremes, weather and climatic characterization over complex terrain: A data-driven approach based on signal enhancement methods and extreme value modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pineda, Luis E.; Willems, Patrick

2017-04-01

Weather and climatic characterization of rainfall extremes is both of scientific and societal value for hydrometeorogical risk management, yet discrimination of local and large-scale forcing remains challenging in data-scarce and complex terrain environments. Here, we present an analysis framework that separate weather (seasonal) regimes and climate (inter-annual) influences using data-driven process identification. The approach is based on signal-to-noise separation methods and extreme value (EV) modeling of multisite rainfall extremes. The EV models use a semi-automatic parameter learning [1] for model identification across temporal scales. At weather scale, the EV models are combined with a state-based hidden Markov model [2] to represent the spatio-temporal structure of rainfall as persistent weather states. At climatic scale, the EV models are used to decode the drivers leading to the shift of weather patterns. The decoding is performed into a climate-to-weather signal subspace, built via dimension reduction of climate model proxies (e.g. sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation) We apply the framework to the Western Andean Ridge (WAR) in Ecuador and Peru (0-6°S) using ground data from the second half of the 20th century. We find that the meridional component of winds is what matters for the in-year and inter-annual variability of high rainfall intensities alongside the northern WAR (0-2.5°S). There, low-level southerly winds are found as advection drivers for oceanic moist of the normal-rainy season and weak/moderate the El Niño (EN) type; but, the strong EN type and its unique moisture surplus is locally advected at lowlands in the central WAR. Moreover, the coastal ridges, south of 3°S dampen meridional airflows, leaving local hygrothermal gradients to control the in-year distribution of rainfall extremes and their anomalies. Overall, we show that the framework, which does not make any prior assumption on the explanatory power of the weather and climate drivers, allows identification of well-known features of the regional climate in a purely data-driven fashion. Thus, this approach shows potential for characterization of precipitation extremes in data-scarce and orographically complex regions in which model reconstructions are the only climate proxies References [1] Mínguez, R., F.J. Méndez, C. Izaguirre, M. Menéndez, and I.J. Losada (2010), Pseudooptimal parameter selection of non-stationary generalized extreme value models for environmental variables, Environ. Modell. Softw. 25, 1592-1607. [2] Pineda, L., P. Willems (2016), Multisite Downscaling of Seasonal Predictions to Daily Rainfall Characteristics over Pacific-Andean River Basins in Ecuador and Peru using a non-homogenous hidden Markov model, J. Hydrometeor, 17(2), 481-498, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-15-0040.1, http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0040.1

Data integrity systems for organ contours in radiation therapy planning.

PubMed

Shah, Veeraj P; Lakshminarayanan, Pranav; Moore, Joseph; Tran, Phuoc T; Quon, Harry; Deville, Curtiland; McNutt, Todd R

2018-06-12

The purpose of this research is to develop effective data integrity models for contoured anatomy in a radiotherapy workflow for both real-time and retrospective analysis. Within this study, two classes of contour integrity models were developed: data driven models and contiguousness models. The data driven models aim to highlight contours which deviate from a gross set of contours from similar disease sites and encompass the following regions of interest (ROI): bladder, femoral heads, spinal cord, and rectum. The contiguousness models, which individually analyze the geometry of contours to detect possible errors, are applied across many different ROI's and are divided into two metrics: Extent and Region Growing over volume. After analysis, we found that 70% of detected bladder contours were verified as suspicious. The spinal cord and rectum models verified that 73% and 80% of contours were suspicious respectively. The contiguousness models were the most accurate models and the Region Growing model was the most accurate submodel. 100% of the detected noncontiguous contours were verified as suspicious, but in the cases of spinal cord, femoral heads, bladder, and rectum, the Region Growing model detected additional two to five suspicious contours that the Extent model failed to detect. When conducting a blind review to detect false negatives, it was found that all the data driven models failed to detect all suspicious contours. The Region Growing contiguousness model produced zero false negatives in all regions of interest other than prostate. With regards to runtime, the contiguousness via extent model took an average of 0.2 s per contour. On the other hand, the region growing method had a longer runtime which was dependent on the number of voxels in the contour. Both contiguousness models have potential for real-time use in clinical radiotherapy while the data driven models are better suited for retrospective use. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Applied Clinical Medical Physics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Vector Autoregression, Structural Equation Modeling, and Their Synthesis in Neuroimaging Data Analysis

PubMed Central

Chen, Gang; Glen, Daniel R.; Saad, Ziad S.; Hamilton, J. Paul; Thomason, Moriah E.; Gotlib, Ian H.; Cox, Robert W.

2011-01-01

Vector autoregression (VAR) and structural equation modeling (SEM) are two popular brain-network modeling tools. VAR, which is a data-driven approach, assumes that connected regions exert time-lagged influences on one another. In contrast, the hypothesis-driven SEM is used to validate an existing connectivity model where connected regions have contemporaneous interactions among them. We present the two models in detail and discuss their applicability to FMRI data, and interpretational limits. We also propose a unified approach that models both lagged and contemporaneous effects. The unifying model, structural vector autoregression (SVAR), may improve statistical and explanatory power, and avoids some prevalent pitfalls that can occur when VAR and SEM are utilized separately. PMID:21975109

The Accuracy of Radio Interferometric Measurements of Earth Rotation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eubanks, T. M.; Steppe, J. A.; Spieth, M. A.

1985-01-01

The accuracy of very long base interferometry earth rotation (UT1) measurements is examined by intercomparing TEMPO and POLARIS data for 1982 and the first half of 1983. None of these data are simultaneous, and so a proper intercomparison requires accounting for the scatter introduced by the rapid, unpredictable, UT1 variations driven by exchanges of angular momentum with the atmosphere. A statistical model of these variations, based on meteorological estimates of the Atmospheric Angular Momentum is derived, and the optimal linear (Kalman) smoother for this model is constructed. The scatter between smoothed and independent raw data is consistent with the residual formal errors, which do not depend upon the actual scatter of the UT1 data. This represents the first time that an accurate prediction of the scatter between UT1 data sets were possible.

To react or not to react? Intrinsic stochasticity of human control in virtual stick balancing

PubMed Central

Zgonnikov, Arkady; Lubashevsky, Ihor; Kanemoto, Shigeru; Miyazawa, Toru; Suzuki, Takashi

2014-01-01

Understanding how humans control unstable systems is central to many research problems, with applications ranging from quiet standing to aircraft landing. Increasingly, much evidence appears in favour of event-driven control hypothesis: human operators only start actively controlling the system when the discrepancy between the current and desired system states becomes large enough. The event-driven models based on the concept of threshold can explain many features of the experimentally observed dynamics. However, much still remains unclear about the dynamics of human-controlled systems, which likely indicates that humans use more intricate control mechanisms. This paper argues that control activation in humans may be not threshold-driven, but instead intrinsically stochastic, noise-driven. Specifically, we suggest that control activation stems from stochastic interplay between the operator's need to keep the controlled system near the goal state, on the one hand, and the tendency to postpone interrupting the system dynamics, on the other hand. We propose a model capturing this interplay and show that it matches the experimental data on human balancing of virtual overdamped stick. Our results illuminate that the noise-driven activation mechanism plays a crucial role at least in the considered task, and, hypothetically, in a broad range of human-controlled processes. PMID:25056217

Ionospheric propagation correction modeling for satellite altimeters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nesterczuk, G.

1981-01-01

The theoretical basis and avaliable accuracy verifications were reviewed and compared for ionospheric correction procedures based on a global ionsopheric model driven by solar flux, and a technique in which measured electron content (using Faraday rotation measurements) for one path is mapped into corrections for a hemisphere. For these two techniques, RMS errors for correcting satellite altimeters data (at 14 GHz) are estimated to be 12 cm and 3 cm, respectively. On the basis of global accuracy and reliability after implementation, the solar flux model is recommended.

Modelling irradiation-induced softening in BCC iron by crystal plasticity approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, Xiazi; Terentyev, Dmitry; Yu, Long; Song, Dingkun; Bakaev, A.; Duan, Huiling

2015-11-01

Crystal plasticity model (CPM) for BCC iron to account for radiation-induced strain softening is proposed. CPM is based on the plastically-driven and thermally-activated removal of dislocation loops. Atomistic simulations are applied to parameterize dislocation-defect interactions. Combining experimental microstructures, defect-hardening/absorption rules from atomistic simulations, and CPM fitted to properties of non-irradiated iron, the model achieves a good agreement with experimental data regarding radiation-induced strain softening and flow stress increase under neutron irradiation.

Constraints on single entity driven inflationary and radiation eras

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouhmadi-López, Mariam; Chen, Pisin; Liu, Yen-Wei

2012-07-01

We present a model that attempts to fuse the inflationary era and the subsequent radiation dominated era under a unified framework so as to provide a smooth transition between the two. The model is based on a modification of the generalized Chaplygin gas. We constrain the model observationally by mapping the primordial power spectrum of the scalar perturbations to the latest data of WMAP7. We compute as well the spectrum of the primordial gravitational waves as would be measured today.

Visualization of RNA structure models within the Integrative Genomics Viewer.

PubMed

Busan, Steven; Weeks, Kevin M

2017-07-01

Analyses of the interrelationships between RNA structure and function are increasingly important components of genomic studies. The SHAPE-MaP strategy enables accurate RNA structure probing and realistic structure modeling of kilobase-length noncoding RNAs and mRNAs. Existing tools for visualizing RNA structure models are not suitable for efficient analysis of long, structurally heterogeneous RNAs. In addition, structure models are often advantageously interpreted in the context of other experimental data and gene annotation information, for which few tools currently exist. We have developed a module within the widely used and well supported open-source Integrative Genomics Viewer (IGV) that allows visualization of SHAPE and other chemical probing data, including raw reactivities, data-driven structural entropies, and data-constrained base-pair secondary structure models, in context with linear genomic data tracks. We illustrate the usefulness of visualizing RNA structure in the IGV by exploring structure models for a large viral RNA genome, comparing bacterial mRNA structure in cells with its structure under cell- and protein-free conditions, and comparing a noncoding RNA structure modeled using SHAPE data with a base-pairing model inferred through sequence covariation analysis. © 2017 Busan and Weeks; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press for the RNA Society.

Predicting intensity ranks of peptide fragment ions.

PubMed

Frank, Ari M

2009-05-01

Accurate modeling of peptide fragmentation is necessary for the development of robust scoring functions for peptide-spectrum matches, which are the cornerstone of MS/MS-based identification algorithms. Unfortunately, peptide fragmentation is a complex process that can involve several competing chemical pathways, which makes it difficult to develop generative probabilistic models that describe it accurately. However, the vast amounts of MS/MS data being generated now make it possible to use data-driven machine learning methods to develop discriminative ranking-based models that predict the intensity ranks of a peptide's fragment ions. We use simple sequence-based features that get combined by a boosting algorithm into models that make peak rank predictions with high accuracy. In an accompanying manuscript, we demonstrate how these prediction models are used to significantly improve the performance of peptide identification algorithms. The models can also be useful in the design of optimal multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) transitions, in cases where there is insufficient experimental data to guide the peak selection process. The prediction algorithm can also be run independently through PepNovo+, which is available for download from http://bix.ucsd.edu/Software/PepNovo.html.

Predicting Intensity Ranks of Peptide Fragment Ions

PubMed Central

Frank, Ari M.

2009-01-01

Accurate modeling of peptide fragmentation is necessary for the development of robust scoring functions for peptide-spectrum matches, which are the cornerstone of MS/MS-based identification algorithms. Unfortunately, peptide fragmentation is a complex process that can involve several competing chemical pathways, which makes it difficult to develop generative probabilistic models that describe it accurately. However, the vast amounts of MS/MS data being generated now make it possible to use data-driven machine learning methods to develop discriminative ranking-based models that predict the intensity ranks of a peptide's fragment ions. We use simple sequence-based features that get combined by a boosting algorithm in to models that make peak rank predictions with high accuracy. In an accompanying manuscript, we demonstrate how these prediction models are used to significantly improve the performance of peptide identification algorithms. The models can also be useful in the design of optimal MRM transitions, in cases where there is insufficient experimental data to guide the peak selection process. The prediction algorithm can also be run independently through PepNovo+, which is available for download from http://bix.ucsd.edu/Software/PepNovo.html. PMID:19256476

Examination of the relationship between theory-driven policies and allowed lost-time back claims in workers' compensation: a system dynamics model.

PubMed

Wong, Jessica J; McGregor, Marion; Mior, Silvano A; Loisel, Patrick

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a model that evaluates the impact of policy changes on the number of workers' compensation lost-time back claims in Ontario, Canada, over a 30-year timeframe. The model was used to test the hypothesis that a theory- and policy-driven model would be sufficient in reproducing historical claims data in a robust manner and that policy changes would have a major impact on modeled data. The model was developed using system dynamics methods in the Vensim simulation program. The theoretical effects of policies for compensation benefit levels and experience rating fees were modeled. The model was built and validated using historical claims data from 1980 to 2009. Sensitivity analysis was used to evaluate the modeled data at extreme end points of variable input and timeframes. The degree of predictive value of the modeled data was measured by the coefficient of determination, root mean square error, and Theil's inequality coefficients. Correlation between modeled data and actual data was found to be meaningful (R(2) = 0.934), and the modeled data were stable at extreme end points. Among the effects explored, policy changes were found to be relatively minor drivers of back claims data, accounting for a 13% improvement in error. Simulation results suggested that unemployment, number of no-lost-time claims, number of injuries per worker, and recovery rate from back injuries outside of claims management to be sensitive drivers of back claims data. A robust systems-based model was developed and tested for use in future policy research in Ontario's workers' compensation. The study findings suggest that certain areas within and outside the workers' compensation system need to be considered when evaluating and changing policies around back claims. © 2014. Published by National University of Health Sciences All rights reserved.

Use of machine learning methods to reduce predictive error of groundwater models.

PubMed

Xu, Tianfang; Valocchi, Albert J; Choi, Jaesik; Amir, Eyal

2014-01-01

Quantitative analyses of groundwater flow and transport typically rely on a physically-based model, which is inherently subject to error. Errors in model structure, parameter and data lead to both random and systematic error even in the output of a calibrated model. We develop complementary data-driven models (DDMs) to reduce the predictive error of physically-based groundwater models. Two machine learning techniques, the instance-based weighting and support vector regression, are used to build the DDMs. This approach is illustrated using two real-world case studies of the Republican River Compact Administration model and the Spokane Valley-Rathdrum Prairie model. The two groundwater models have different hydrogeologic settings, parameterization, and calibration methods. In the first case study, cluster analysis is introduced for data preprocessing to make the DDMs more robust and computationally efficient. The DDMs reduce the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of the temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal prediction of piezometric head of the groundwater model by 82%, 60%, and 48%, respectively. In the second case study, the DDMs reduce the RMSE of the temporal prediction of piezometric head of the groundwater model by 77%. It is further demonstrated that the effectiveness of the DDMs depends on the existence and extent of the structure in the error of the physically-based model. © 2013, National GroundWater Association.

Using a Time-Driven Activity-Based Costing Model To Determine the Actual Cost of Services Provided by a Transgenic Core.

PubMed

Gerwin, Philip M; Norinsky, Rada M; Tolwani, Ravi J

2018-03-01

Laboratory animal programs and core laboratories often set service rates based on cost estimates. However, actual costs may be unknown, and service rates may not reflect the actual cost of services. Accurately evaluating the actual costs of services can be challenging and time-consuming. We used a time-driven activity-based costing (ABC) model to determine the cost of services provided by a resource laboratory at our institution. The time-driven approach is a more efficient approach to calculating costs than using a traditional ABC model. We calculated only 2 parameters: the time required to perform an activity and the unit cost of the activity based on employee cost. This method allowed us to rapidly and accurately calculate the actual cost of services provided, including microinjection of a DNA construct, microinjection of embryonic stem cells, embryo transfer, and in vitro fertilization. We successfully implemented a time-driven ABC model to evaluate the cost of these services and the capacity of labor used to deliver them. We determined how actual costs compared with current service rates. In addition, we determined that the labor supplied to conduct all services (10,645 min/wk) exceeded the practical labor capacity (8400 min/wk), indicating that the laboratory team was highly efficient and that additional labor capacity was needed to prevent overloading of the current team. Importantly, this time-driven ABC approach allowed us to establish a baseline model that can easily be updated to reflect operational changes or changes in labor costs. We demonstrated that a time-driven ABC model is a powerful management tool that can be applied to other core facilities as well as to entire animal programs, providing valuable information that can be used to set rates based on the actual cost of services and to improve operating efficiency.

The `Henry Problem' of `density-driven' groundwater flow versus Tothian `groundwater flow systems' with variable density: A review of the influential Biscayne aquifer data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weyer, K. U.

2017-12-01

Coastal groundwater flow investigations at the Biscayne Bay, south of Miami, Florida, gave rise to the concept of density-driven flow of seawater into coastal aquifers creating a saltwater wedge. Within that wedge, convection-driven return flow of seawater and a dispersion zone were assumed by Cooper et al. (1964) to be the cause of the Biscayne aquifer `sea water wedge'. This conclusion was based on the chloride distribution within the aquifer and on an analytical model concept assuming convection flow within a confined aquifer without taking non-chemical field data into consideration. This concept was later labelled the `Henry Problem', which any numerical variable density flow program must be able to simulate to be considered acceptable. Both, `density-driven flow' and Tothian `groundwater flow systems' (with or without variable density conditions) are driven by gravitation. The difference between the two are the boundary conditions. 'Density-driven flow' occurs under hydrostatic boundary conditions while Tothian `groundwater flow systems' occur under hydrodynamic boundary conditions. Revisiting the Cooper et al. (1964) publication with its record of piezometric field data (heads) showed that the so-called sea water wedge has been caused by discharging deep saline groundwater driven by gravitational flow and not by denser sea water. Density driven flow of seawater into the aquifer was not found reflected in the head measurements for low and high tide conditions which had been taken contemporaneously with the chloride measurements. These head measurements had not been included in the flow interpretation. The very same head measurements indicated a clear dividing line between shallow local fresh groundwater flow and saline deep groundwater flow without the existence of a dispersion zone or a convection cell. The Biscayne situation emphasizes the need for any chemical interpretation of flow pattern to be supported by head data as energy indicators of flow fields. At the Biscayne site density-driven flow of seawater did and does not exist. Instead this site and the Florida coast line in general are the end points of local fresh and regional saline groundwater flow systems driven by gravity forces and not by density differences.

Data-driven integration of genome-scale regulatory and metabolic network models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Imam, Saheed; Schauble, Sascha; Brooks, Aaron N.

Microbes are diverse and extremely versatile organisms that play vital roles in all ecological niches. Understanding and harnessing microbial systems will be key to the sustainability of our planet. One approach to improving our knowledge of microbial processes is through data-driven and mechanism-informed computational modeling. Individual models of biological networks (such as metabolism, transcription, and signaling) have played pivotal roles in driving microbial research through the years. These networks, however, are highly interconnected and function in concert a fact that has led to the development of a variety of approaches aimed at simulating the integrated functions of two or moremore » network types. Though the task of integrating these different models is fraught with new challenges, the large amounts of high-throughput data sets being generated, and algorithms being developed, means that the time is at hand for concerted efforts to build integrated regulatory-metabolic networks in a data-driven fashion. Lastly, in this perspective, we review current approaches for constructing integrated regulatory-metabolic models and outline new strategies for future development of these network models for any microbial system.« less

Data-driven integration of genome-scale regulatory and metabolic network models

DOE PAGES

Imam, Saheed; Schauble, Sascha; Brooks, Aaron N.; ...

2015-05-05

Microbes are diverse and extremely versatile organisms that play vital roles in all ecological niches. Understanding and harnessing microbial systems will be key to the sustainability of our planet. One approach to improving our knowledge of microbial processes is through data-driven and mechanism-informed computational modeling. Individual models of biological networks (such as metabolism, transcription, and signaling) have played pivotal roles in driving microbial research through the years. These networks, however, are highly interconnected and function in concert a fact that has led to the development of a variety of approaches aimed at simulating the integrated functions of two or moremore » network types. Though the task of integrating these different models is fraught with new challenges, the large amounts of high-throughput data sets being generated, and algorithms being developed, means that the time is at hand for concerted efforts to build integrated regulatory-metabolic networks in a data-driven fashion. Lastly, in this perspective, we review current approaches for constructing integrated regulatory-metabolic models and outline new strategies for future development of these network models for any microbial system.« less

A Model-Driven Approach to e-Course Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Savic, Goran; Segedinac, Milan; Milenkovic, Dušica; Hrin, Tamara; Segedinac, Mirjana

2018-01-01

This paper presents research on using a model-driven approach to the development and management of electronic courses. We propose a course management system which stores a course model represented as distinct machine-readable components containing domain knowledge of different course aspects. Based on this formally defined platform-independent…

A data driven method for estimation of B(avail) and appK(D) using a single injection protocol with [¹¹C]raclopride in the mouse.

PubMed

Wimberley, Catriona J; Fischer, Kristina; Reilhac, Anthonin; Pichler, Bernd J; Gregoire, Marie Claude

2014-10-01

The partial saturation approach (PSA) is a simple, single injection experimental protocol that will estimate both B(avail) and appK(D) without the use of blood sampling. This makes it ideal for use in longitudinal studies of neurodegenerative diseases in the rodent. The aim of this study was to increase the range and applicability of the PSA by developing a data driven strategy for determining reliable regional estimates of receptor density (B(avail)) and in vivo affinity (1/appK(D)), and validate the strategy using a simulation model. The data driven method uses a time window guided by the dynamic equilibrium state of the system as opposed to using a static time window. To test the method, simulations of partial saturation experiments were generated and validated against experimental data. The experimental conditions simulated included a range of receptor occupancy levels and three different B(avail) and appK(D) values to mimic diseases states. Also the effect of using a reference region and typical PET noise on the stability and accuracy of the estimates was investigated. The investigations showed that the parameter estimates in a simulated healthy mouse, using the data driven method were within 10±30% of the simulated input for the range of occupancy levels simulated. Throughout all experimental conditions simulated, the accuracy and robustness of the estimates using the data driven method were much improved upon the typical method of using a static time window, especially at low receptor occupancy levels. Introducing a reference region caused a bias of approximately 10% over the range of occupancy levels. Based on extensive simulated experimental conditions, it was shown the data driven method provides accurate and precise estimates of B(avail) and appK(D) for a broader range of conditions compared to the original method. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Curriculum Experiment in Climate Change Education Using an Integrated Approach of Content Knowledge Instruction and Student-Driven Research, Year 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, P. E.; Heinrichs, J. F.

2010-12-01

One of the greatest challenges facing the world is climate change. Coupled with this challenge is an under-informed population that has not received a rigorous education about climate change other than what is available through the media. Fort Hays State University is in a second year of piloting a course on climate change targeted to students early in their academic careers. The course is modeled after our past work (NSF DUE-0088818) of integrating content knowledge instruction and student-driven research where there was a positive correlation between student research engagement and student knowledge gains. The second pilot offering utilizes a mix of inquiry-based instruction, problem-based learning, and student-driven research to educate and engage the students in understanding climate change. The course was collaboratively developed by a geoscientist and science educator both of whom are active in citizen science programs. The course model is unique in that 50% of the course is dedicated to developing core knowledge and technical skills (e.g. global climate change, critical analysis, writing, data acquisition, data representation, and research design), and 50% to conducting a research project using available data sets from federal agencies and research groups. A key element of the course is a focus on data sets to make climate change relevant to the students. The research serves as a means of civic engagement by the students as they are tasked to understand their role in communicating their research findings to the community and coping with the local and regional changes they find through their research. The impacts of course changes from the first offering to the second offering of the course will be reported, as well as the structure of the course.

Designing an optimal software intensive system acquisition: A game theoretic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buettner, Douglas John

The development of schedule-constrained software-intensive space systems is challenging. Case study data from national security space programs developed at the U.S. Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center (USAF SMC) provide evidence of the strong desire by contractors to skip or severely reduce software development design and early defect detection methods in these schedule-constrained environments. The research findings suggest recommendations to fully address these issues at numerous levels. However, the observations lead us to investigate modeling and theoretical methods to fundamentally understand what motivated this behavior in the first place. As a result, Madachy's inspection-based system dynamics model is modified to include unit testing and an integration test feedback loop. This Modified Madachy Model (MMM) is used as a tool to investigate the consequences of this behavior on the observed defect dynamics for two remarkably different case study software projects. Latin Hypercube sampling of the MMM with sample distributions for quality, schedule and cost-driven strategies demonstrate that the higher cost and effort quality-driven strategies provide consistently better schedule performance than the schedule-driven up-front effort-reduction strategies. Game theory reasoning for schedule-driven engineers cutting corners on inspections and unit testing is based on the case study evidence and Austin's agency model to describe the observed phenomena. Game theory concepts are then used to argue that the source of the problem and hence the solution to developers cutting corners on quality for schedule-driven system acquisitions ultimately lies with the government. The game theory arguments also lead to the suggestion that the use of a multi-player dynamic Nash bargaining game provides a solution for our observed lack of quality game between the government (the acquirer) and "large-corporation" software developers. A note is provided that argues this multi-player dynamic Nash bargaining game also provides the solution to Freeman Dyson's problem, for a way to place a label of good or bad on systems.

Evaluating mortality rates with a novel integrated framework for nonmonogamous species.

PubMed

Tenan, Simone; Iemma, Aaron; Bragalanti, Natalia; Pedrini, Paolo; De Barba, Marta; Randi, Ettore; Groff, Claudio; Genovart, Meritxell

2016-12-01

The conservation of wildlife requires management based on quantitative evidence, and especially for large carnivores, unraveling cause-specific mortalities and understanding their impact on population dynamics is crucial. Acquiring this knowledge is challenging because it is difficult to obtain robust long-term data sets on endangered populations and, usually, data are collected through diverse sampling strategies. Integrated population models (IPMs) offer a way to integrate data generated through different processes. However, IPMs are female-based models that cannot account for mate availability, and this feature limits their applicability to monogamous species only. We extended classical IPMs to a two-sex framework that allows investigation of population dynamics and quantification of cause-specific mortality rates in nonmonogamous species. We illustrated our approach by simultaneously modeling different types of data from a reintroduced, unhunted brown bear (Ursus arctos) population living in an area with a dense human population. In a population mainly driven by adult survival, we estimated that on average 11% of cubs and 61% of adults died from human-related causes. Although the population is currently not at risk, adult survival and thus population dynamics are driven by anthropogenic mortality. Given the recent increase of human-bear conflicts in the area, removal of individuals for management purposes and through poaching may increase, reversing the positive population growth rate. Our approach can be generalized to other species affected by cause-specific mortality and will be useful to inform conservation decisions for other nonmonogamous species, such as most large carnivores, for which data are scarce and diverse and thus data integration is highly desirable. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

An Adaptation of the Distance Driven Projection Method for Single Pinhole Collimators in SPECT Imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ihsani, Alvin; Farncombe, Troy

2016-02-01

The modelling of the projection operator in tomographic imaging is of critical importance especially when working with algebraic methods of image reconstruction. This paper proposes a distance-driven projection method which is targeted to single-pinhole single-photon emission computed tomograghy (SPECT) imaging since it accounts for the finite size of the pinhole, and the possible tilting of the detector surface in addition to other collimator-specific factors such as geometric sensitivity. The accuracy and execution time of the proposed method is evaluated by comparing to a ray-driven approach where the pinhole is sub-sampled with various sampling schemes. A point-source phantom whose projections were generated using OpenGATE was first used to compare the resolution of reconstructed images with each method using the full width at half maximum (FWHM). Furthermore, a high-activity Mini Deluxe Phantom (Data Spectrum Corp., Durham, NC, USA) SPECT resolution phantom was scanned using a Gamma Medica X-SPECT system and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and structural similarity of reconstructed images was compared at various projection counts. Based on the reconstructed point-source phantom, the proposed distance-driven approach results in a lower FWHM than the ray-driven approach even when using a smaller detector resolution. Furthermore, based on the Mini Deluxe Phantom, it is shown that the distance-driven approach has consistently higher SNR and structural similarity compared to the ray-driven approach as the counts in measured projections deteriorates.

A General and Efficient Method for Incorporating Precise Spike Times in Globally Time-Driven Simulations

PubMed Central

Hanuschkin, Alexander; Kunkel, Susanne; Helias, Moritz; Morrison, Abigail; Diesmann, Markus

2010-01-01

Traditionally, event-driven simulations have been limited to the very restricted class of neuronal models for which the timing of future spikes can be expressed in closed form. Recently, the class of models that is amenable to event-driven simulation has been extended by the development of techniques to accurately calculate firing times for some integrate-and-fire neuron models that do not enable the prediction of future spikes in closed form. The motivation of this development is the general perception that time-driven simulations are imprecise. Here, we demonstrate that a globally time-driven scheme can calculate firing times that cannot be discriminated from those calculated by an event-driven implementation of the same model; moreover, the time-driven scheme incurs lower computational costs. The key insight is that time-driven methods are based on identifying a threshold crossing in the recent past, which can be implemented by a much simpler algorithm than the techniques for predicting future threshold crossings that are necessary for event-driven approaches. As run time is dominated by the cost of the operations performed at each incoming spike, which includes spike prediction in the case of event-driven simulation and retrospective detection in the case of time-driven simulation, the simple time-driven algorithm outperforms the event-driven approaches. Additionally, our method is generally applicable to all commonly used integrate-and-fire neuronal models; we show that a non-linear model employing a standard adaptive solver can reproduce a reference spike train with a high degree of precision. PMID:21031031

Semantically-based priors and nuanced knowledge core for Big Data, Social AI, and language understanding.

PubMed

Olsher, Daniel

2014-10-01

Noise-resistant and nuanced, COGBASE makes 10 million pieces of commonsense data and a host of novel reasoning algorithms available via a family of semantically-driven prior probability distributions. Machine learning, Big Data, natural language understanding/processing, and social AI can draw on COGBASE to determine lexical semantics, infer goals and interests, simulate emotion and affect, calculate document gists and topic models, and link commonsense knowledge to domain models and social, spatial, cultural, and psychological data. COGBASE is especially ideal for social Big Data, which tends to involve highly implicit contexts, cognitive artifacts, difficult-to-parse texts, and deep domain knowledge dependencies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Data-Driven Robust RVFLNs Modeling of a Blast Furnace Iron-Making Process Using Cauchy Distribution Weighted M-Estimation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Ping; Lv, Youbin; Wang, Hong

Optimal operation of a practical blast furnace (BF) ironmaking process depends largely on a good measurement of molten iron quality (MIQ) indices. However, measuring the MIQ online is not feasible using the available techniques. In this paper, a novel data-driven robust modeling is proposed for online estimation of MIQ using improved random vector functional-link networks (RVFLNs). Since the output weights of traditional RVFLNs are obtained by the least squares approach, a robustness problem may occur when the training dataset is contaminated with outliers. This affects the modeling accuracy of RVFLNs. To solve this problem, a Cauchy distribution weighted M-estimation basedmore » robust RFVLNs is proposed. Since the weights of different outlier data are properly determined by the Cauchy distribution, their corresponding contribution on modeling can be properly distinguished. Thus robust and better modeling results can be achieved. Moreover, given that the BF is a complex nonlinear system with numerous coupling variables, the data-driven canonical correlation analysis is employed to identify the most influential components from multitudinous factors that affect the MIQ indices to reduce the model dimension. Finally, experiments using industrial data and comparative studies have demonstrated that the obtained model produces a better modeling and estimating accuracy and stronger robustness than other modeling methods.« less

A menu-driven software package of Bayesian nonparametric (and parametric) mixed models for regression analysis and density estimation.

PubMed

Karabatsos, George

2017-02-01

Most of applied statistics involves regression analysis of data. In practice, it is important to specify a regression model that has minimal assumptions which are not violated by data, to ensure that statistical inferences from the model are informative and not misleading. This paper presents a stand-alone and menu-driven software package, Bayesian Regression: Nonparametric and Parametric Models, constructed from MATLAB Compiler. Currently, this package gives the user a choice from 83 Bayesian models for data analysis. They include 47 Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) infinite-mixture regression models; 5 BNP infinite-mixture models for density estimation; and 31 normal random effects models (HLMs), including normal linear models. Each of the 78 regression models handles either a continuous, binary, or ordinal dependent variable, and can handle multi-level (grouped) data. All 83 Bayesian models can handle the analysis of weighted observations (e.g., for meta-analysis), and the analysis of left-censored, right-censored, and/or interval-censored data. Each BNP infinite-mixture model has a mixture distribution assigned one of various BNP prior distributions, including priors defined by either the Dirichlet process, Pitman-Yor process (including the normalized stable process), beta (two-parameter) process, normalized inverse-Gaussian process, geometric weights prior, dependent Dirichlet process, or the dependent infinite-probits prior. The software user can mouse-click to select a Bayesian model and perform data analysis via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. After the sampling completes, the software automatically opens text output that reports MCMC-based estimates of the model's posterior distribution and model predictive fit to the data. Additional text and/or graphical output can be generated by mouse-clicking other menu options. This includes output of MCMC convergence analyses, and estimates of the model's posterior predictive distribution, for selected functionals and values of covariates. The software is illustrated through the BNP regression analysis of real data.

Cognitive Effects of Mindfulness Training: Results of a Pilot Study Based on a Theory Driven Approach

PubMed Central

Wimmer, Lena; Bellingrath, Silja; von Stockhausen, Lisa

2016-01-01

The present paper reports a pilot study which tested cognitive effects of mindfulness practice in a theory-driven approach. Thirty-four fifth graders received either a mindfulness training which was based on the mindfulness-based stress reduction approach (experimental group), a concentration training (active control group), or no treatment (passive control group). Based on the operational definition of mindfulness by Bishop et al. (2004), effects on sustained attention, cognitive flexibility, cognitive inhibition, and data-driven as opposed to schema-based information processing were predicted. These abilities were assessed in a pre-post design by means of a vigilance test, a reversible figures test, the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test, a Stroop test, a visual search task, and a recognition task of prototypical faces. Results suggest that the mindfulness training specifically improved cognitive inhibition and data-driven information processing. PMID:27462287

Cognitive Effects of Mindfulness Training: Results of a Pilot Study Based on a Theory Driven Approach.

PubMed

Wimmer, Lena; Bellingrath, Silja; von Stockhausen, Lisa

2016-01-01

The present paper reports a pilot study which tested cognitive effects of mindfulness practice in a theory-driven approach. Thirty-four fifth graders received either a mindfulness training which was based on the mindfulness-based stress reduction approach (experimental group), a concentration training (active control group), or no treatment (passive control group). Based on the operational definition of mindfulness by Bishop et al. (2004), effects on sustained attention, cognitive flexibility, cognitive inhibition, and data-driven as opposed to schema-based information processing were predicted. These abilities were assessed in a pre-post design by means of a vigilance test, a reversible figures test, the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test, a Stroop test, a visual search task, and a recognition task of prototypical faces. Results suggest that the mindfulness training specifically improved cognitive inhibition and data-driven information processing.

A Community Publication and Dissemination System for Hydrology Education Materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruddell, B. L.

2015-12-01

Hosted by CUAHSI and the Science Education Resource Center (SERC), federated by the National Science Digital Library (NSDL), and allied with the Water Data Center (WDC), Hydrologic Information System (HIS), and HydroShare projects, a simple cyberinfrastructure has been launched for the publication and dissemination of data and model driven university hydrology education materials. This lightweight system's metadata describes learning content as a data-driven module with defined data inputs and outputs. This structure allows a user to mix and match modules to create sequences of content that teach both hydrology and computer learning outcomes. Importantly, this modular infrastructure allows an instructor to substitute a module based on updated computer methods for one based on outdated computer methods, hopefully solving the problem of rapid obsolescence that has hampered previous community efforts. The prototype system is now available from CUAHSI and SERC, with some example content. The system is designed to catalog, link to, make visible, and make accessible the existing and future contributions of the community; this system does not create content. Submissions from hydrology educators are eagerly solicited, especially for existing content.

Case Studies of Forecasting Ionospheric Total Electron Content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mannucci, A. J.; Meng, X.; Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Tsurutani, B.; McGranaghan, R. M.

2017-12-01

We report on medium-range forecast-mode runs of ionosphere-thermosphere coupled models that calculate ionospheric total electron content (TEC), focusing on low-latitude daytime conditions. A medium-range forecast-mode run refers to simulations that are driven by inputs that can be predicted 2-3 days in advance, for example based on simulations of the solar wind. We will present results from a weak geomagnetic storm caused by a high-speed solar wind stream on June 29, 2012. Simulations based on the Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model (GITM) and the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) significantly over-estimate TEC in certain low latitude daytime regions, compared to TEC maps based on observations. We will present the results from a more intense coronal mass ejection (CME) driven storm where the simulations are closer to observations. We compare high latitude data sets to model inputs, such as auroral boundary and convection patterns, to assess the degree to which poorly estimated high latitude drivers may be the largest cause of discrepancy between simulations and observations. Our results reveal many factors that can affect the accuracy of forecasts, including the fidelity of empirical models used to estimate high latitude precipitation patterns, or observation proxies for solar EUV spectra, such as the F10.7 index. Implications for forecasts with few-day lead times are discussed

Applying cost accounting to operating room staffing in otolaryngology: time-driven activity-based costing and outpatient adenotonsillectomy.

PubMed

Balakrishnan, Karthik; Goico, Brian; Arjmand, Ellis M

2015-04-01

(1) To describe the application of a detailed cost-accounting method (time-driven activity-cased costing) to operating room personnel costs, avoiding the proxy use of hospital and provider charges. (2) To model potential cost efficiencies using different staffing models with the case study of outpatient adenotonsillectomy. Prospective cost analysis case study. Tertiary pediatric hospital. All otolaryngology providers and otolaryngology operating room staff at our institution. Time-driven activity-based costing demonstrated precise per-case and per-minute calculation of personnel costs. We identified several areas of unused personnel capacity in a basic staffing model. Per-case personnel costs decreased by 23.2% by allowing a surgeon to run 2 operating rooms, despite doubling all other staff. Further cost reductions up to a total of 26.4% were predicted with additional staffing rearrangements. Time-driven activity-based costing allows detailed understanding of not only personnel costs but also how personnel time is used. This in turn allows testing of alternative staffing models to decrease unused personnel capacity and increase efficiency. © American Academy of Otolaryngology—Head and Neck Surgery Foundation 2015.

A Data Stream Model For Runoff Simulation In A Changing Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Q.; Shao, J.; Zhang, H.; Wang, G.

2017-12-01

Runoff simulation is of great significance for water engineering design, water disaster control, water resources planning and management in a catchment or region. A large number of methods including concept-based process-driven models and statistic-based data-driven models, have been proposed and widely used in worldwide during past decades. Most existing models assume that the relationship among runoff and its impacting factors is stationary. However, in the changing environment (e.g., climate change, human disturbance), their relationship usually evolves over time. In this study, we propose a data stream model for runoff simulation in a changing environment. Specifically, the proposed model works in three steps: learning a rule set, expansion of a rule, and simulation. The first step is to initialize a rule set. When a new observation arrives, the model will check which rule covers it and then use the rule for simulation. Meanwhile, Page-Hinckley (PH) change detection test is used to monitor the online simulation error of each rule. If a change is detected, the corresponding rule is removed from the rule set. In the second step, for each rule, if it covers more than a given number of instance, the rule is expected to expand. In the third step, a simulation model of each leaf node is learnt with a perceptron without activation function, and is updated with adding a newly incoming observation. Taking Fuxi River catchment as a case study, we applied the model to simulate the monthly runoff in the catchment. Results show that abrupt change is detected in the year of 1997 by using the Page-Hinckley change detection test method, which is consistent with the historic record of flooding. In addition, the model achieves good simulation results with the RMSE of 13.326, and outperforms many established methods. The findings demonstrated that the proposed data stream model provides a promising way to simulate runoff in a changing environment.

A Data-Driven Framework for Incorporating New Tools for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This talk was given during the “Exposure-Based Toxicity Testing” session at the annual meeting of the International Society for Exposure Science. It provided an update on the state of the science and tools that may be employed in risk-based prioritization efforts. It outlined knowledge gained from the data provided using these high-throughput tools to assess chemical bioactivity and to predict chemical exposures and also identified future needs. It provided an opportunity to showcase ongoing research efforts within the National Exposure Research Laboratory and the National Center for Computational Toxicology within the Office of Research and Development to an international audience. The National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) Computational Exposure Division (CED) develops and evaluates data, decision-support tools, and models to be applied to media-specific or receptor-specific problem areas. CED uses modeling-based approaches to characterize exposures, evaluate fate and transport, and support environmental diagnostics/forensics with input from multiple data sources. It also develops media- and receptor-specific models, process models, and decision support tools for use both within and outside of EPA.

A Model-Driven Architecture Approach for Modeling, Specifying and Deploying Policies in Autonomous and Autonomic Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pena, Joaquin; Hinchey, Michael G.; Sterritt, Roy; Ruiz-Cortes, Antonio; Resinas, Manuel

2006-01-01

Autonomic Computing (AC), self-management based on high level guidance from humans, is increasingly gaining momentum as the way forward in designing reliable systems that hide complexity and conquer IT management costs. Effectively, AC may be viewed as Policy-Based Self-Management. The Model Driven Architecture (MDA) approach focuses on building models that can be transformed into code in an automatic manner. In this paper, we look at ways to implement Policy-Based Self-Management by means of models that can be converted to code using transformations that follow the MDA philosophy. We propose a set of UML-based models to specify autonomic and autonomous features along with the necessary procedures, based on modification and composition of models, to deploy a policy as an executing system.

Reverse engineering biomolecular systems using -omic data: challenges, progress and opportunities.

PubMed

Quo, Chang F; Kaddi, Chanchala; Phan, John H; Zollanvari, Amin; Xu, Mingqing; Wang, May D; Alterovitz, Gil

2012-07-01

Recent advances in high-throughput biotechnologies have led to the rapid growing research interest in reverse engineering of biomolecular systems (REBMS). 'Data-driven' approaches, i.e. data mining, can be used to extract patterns from large volumes of biochemical data at molecular-level resolution while 'design-driven' approaches, i.e. systems modeling, can be used to simulate emergent system properties. Consequently, both data- and design-driven approaches applied to -omic data may lead to novel insights in reverse engineering biological systems that could not be expected before using low-throughput platforms. However, there exist several challenges in this fast growing field of reverse engineering biomolecular systems: (i) to integrate heterogeneous biochemical data for data mining, (ii) to combine top-down and bottom-up approaches for systems modeling and (iii) to validate system models experimentally. In addition to reviewing progress made by the community and opportunities encountered in addressing these challenges, we explore the emerging field of synthetic biology, which is an exciting approach to validate and analyze theoretical system models directly through experimental synthesis, i.e. analysis-by-synthesis. The ultimate goal is to address the present and future challenges in reverse engineering biomolecular systems (REBMS) using integrated workflow of data mining, systems modeling and synthetic biology.

Strategies for concurrent processing of complex algorithms in data driven architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stoughton, John W.; Mielke, Roland R.

1987-01-01

The results of ongoing research directed at developing a graph theoretical model for describing data and control flow associated with the execution of large grained algorithms in a spatial distributed computer environment is presented. This model is identified by the acronym ATAMM (Algorithm/Architecture Mapping Model). The purpose of such a model is to provide a basis for establishing rules for relating an algorithm to its execution in a multiprocessor environment. Specifications derived from the model lead directly to the description of a data flow architecture which is a consequence of the inherent behavior of the data and control flow described by the model. The purpose of the ATAMM based architecture is to optimize computational concurrency in the multiprocessor environment and to provide an analytical basis for performance evaluation. The ATAMM model and architecture specifications are demonstrated on a prototype system for concept validation.

Enhancing Transparency and Control When Drawing Data-Driven Inferences About Individuals.

PubMed

Chen, Daizhuo; Fraiberger, Samuel P; Moakler, Robert; Provost, Foster

2017-09-01

Recent studies show the remarkable power of fine-grained information disclosed by users on social network sites to infer users' personal characteristics via predictive modeling. Similar fine-grained data are being used successfully in other commercial applications. In response, attention is turning increasingly to the transparency that organizations provide to users as to what inferences are drawn and why, as well as to what sort of control users can be given over inferences that are drawn about them. In this article, we focus on inferences about personal characteristics based on information disclosed by users' online actions. As a use case, we explore personal inferences that are made possible from "Likes" on Facebook. We first present a means for providing transparency into the information responsible for inferences drawn by data-driven models. We then introduce the "cloaking device"-a mechanism for users to inhibit the use of particular pieces of information in inference. Using these analytical tools we ask two main questions: (1) How much information must users cloak to significantly affect inferences about their personal traits? We find that usually users must cloak only a small portion of their actions to inhibit inference. We also find that, encouragingly, false-positive inferences are significantly easier to cloak than true-positive inferences. (2) Can firms change their modeling behavior to make cloaking more difficult? The answer is a definitive yes. We demonstrate a simple modeling change that requires users to cloak substantially more information to affect the inferences drawn. The upshot is that organizations can provide transparency and control even into complicated, predictive model-driven inferences, but they also can make control easier or harder for their users.

Enhancing Transparency and Control When Drawing Data-Driven Inferences About Individuals

PubMed Central

Chen, Daizhuo; Fraiberger, Samuel P.; Moakler, Robert; Provost, Foster

2017-01-01

Abstract Recent studies show the remarkable power of fine-grained information disclosed by users on social network sites to infer users' personal characteristics via predictive modeling. Similar fine-grained data are being used successfully in other commercial applications. In response, attention is turning increasingly to the transparency that organizations provide to users as to what inferences are drawn and why, as well as to what sort of control users can be given over inferences that are drawn about them. In this article, we focus on inferences about personal characteristics based on information disclosed by users' online actions. As a use case, we explore personal inferences that are made possible from “Likes” on Facebook. We first present a means for providing transparency into the information responsible for inferences drawn by data-driven models. We then introduce the “cloaking device”—a mechanism for users to inhibit the use of particular pieces of information in inference. Using these analytical tools we ask two main questions: (1) How much information must users cloak to significantly affect inferences about their personal traits? We find that usually users must cloak only a small portion of their actions to inhibit inference. We also find that, encouragingly, false-positive inferences are significantly easier to cloak than true-positive inferences. (2) Can firms change their modeling behavior to make cloaking more difficult? The answer is a definitive yes. We demonstrate a simple modeling change that requires users to cloak substantially more information to affect the inferences drawn. The upshot is that organizations can provide transparency and control even into complicated, predictive model-driven inferences, but they also can make control easier or harder for their users. PMID:28933942

Sensor fusion IV: Control paradigms and data structures; Proceedings of the Meeting, Boston, MA, Nov. 12-15, 1991

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schenker, Paul S. (Editor)

1992-01-01

Various papers on control paradigms and data structures in sensor fusion are presented. The general topics addressed include: decision models and computational methods, sensor modeling and data representation, active sensing strategies, geometric planning and visualization, task-driven sensing, motion analysis, models motivated biology and psychology, decentralized detection and distributed decision, data fusion architectures, robust estimation of shapes and features, application and implementation. Some of the individual subjects considered are: the Firefly experiment on neural networks for distributed sensor data fusion, manifold traversing as a model for learning control of autonomous robots, choice of coordinate systems for multiple sensor fusion, continuous motion using task-directed stereo vision, interactive and cooperative sensing and control for advanced teleoperation, knowledge-based imaging for terrain analysis, physical and digital simulations for IVA robotics.

Probabilistic and machine learning-based retrieval approaches for biomedical dataset retrieval

PubMed Central

Karisani, Payam; Qin, Zhaohui S; Agichtein, Eugene

2018-01-01

Abstract The bioCADDIE dataset retrieval challenge brought together different approaches to retrieval of biomedical datasets relevant to a user’s query, expressed as a text description of a needed dataset. We describe experiments in applying a data-driven, machine learning-based approach to biomedical dataset retrieval as part of this challenge. We report on a series of experiments carried out to evaluate the performance of both probabilistic and machine learning-driven techniques from information retrieval, as applied to this challenge. Our experiments with probabilistic information retrieval methods, such as query term weight optimization, automatic query expansion and simulated user relevance feedback, demonstrate that automatically boosting the weights of important keywords in a verbose query is more effective than other methods. We also show that although there is a rich space of potential representations and features available in this domain, machine learning-based re-ranking models are not able to improve on probabilistic information retrieval techniques with the currently available training data. The models and algorithms presented in this paper can serve as a viable implementation of a search engine to provide access to biomedical datasets. The retrieval performance is expected to be further improved by using additional training data that is created by expert annotation, or gathered through usage logs, clicks and other processes during natural operation of the system. Database URL: https://github.com/emory-irlab/biocaddie PMID:29688379

Social Capital in Data-Driven Community College Reform

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kerrigan, Monica Reid

2015-01-01

The current rhetoric around using data to improve community college student outcomes with only limited research on data-driven decision-making (DDDM) within postsecondary education compels a more comprehensive understanding of colleges' capacity for using data to inform decisions. Based on an analysis of faculty and administrators' perceptions and…

Strategies for Early Outbreak Detection of Malaria in the Amhara Region of Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nekorchuk, D.; Gebrehiwot, T.; Mihretie, A.; Awoke, W.; Wimberly, M. C.

2017-12-01

Traditional epidemiological approaches to early detection of disease outbreaks are based on relatively straightforward thresholds (e.g. 75th percentile, standard deviations) estimated from historical case data. For diseases with strong seasonality, these can be modified to create separate thresholds for each seasonal time step. However, for disease processes that are non-stationary, more sophisticated techniques are needed to more accurately estimate outbreak threshold values. Early detection for geohealth-related diseases that also have environmental drivers, such as vector-borne diseases, may also benefit from the integration of time-lagged environmental data and disease ecology models into the threshold calculations. The Epidemic Prognosis Incorporating Disease and Environmental Monitoring for Integrated Assessment (EPIDEMIA) project has been integrating malaria case surveillance with remotely-sensed environmental data for early detection, warning, and forecasting of malaria epidemics in the Amhara region of Ethiopia, and has five years of weekly time series data from 47 woredas (districts). Efforts to reduce the burden of malaria in Ethiopia has been met with some notable success in the past two decades with major reduction in cases and deaths. However, malaria remains a significant public health threat as 60% of the population live in malarious areas, and due to the seasonal and unstable transmission patterns with cyclic outbreaks, protective immunity is generally low which could cause high morbidity and mortality during the epidemics. This study compared several approaches for defining outbreak thresholds and for identifying a potential outbreak based on deviations from these thresholds. We found that model-based approaches that accounted for climate-driven seasonality in malaria transmission were most effective, and that incorporating a trend component improved outbreak detection in areas with active malaria elimination efforts. An advantage of these early detection techniques is that they can detect climate-driven outbreaks as well as outbreaks driven by social factors such as human migration.

Solving Immunology?

PubMed Central

Vodovotz, Yoram; Xia, Ashley; Read, Elizabeth L.; Bassaganya-Riera, Josep; Hafler, David A.; Sontag, Eduardo; Wang, Jin; Tsang, John S.; Day, Judy D.; Kleinstein, Steven; Butte, Atul J.; Altman, Matthew C; Hammond, Ross; Sealfon, Stuart C.

2016-01-01

Emergent responses of the immune system result from integration of molecular and cellular networks over time and across multiple organs. High-content and high-throughput analysis technologies, concomitantly with data-driven and mechanistic modeling, hold promise for systematic interrogation of these complex pathways. However, connecting genetic variation and molecular mechanisms to individual phenotypes and health outcomes has proven elusive. Gaps remain in data, and disagreements persist about the value of mechanistic modeling for immunology. Here, we present the perspectives that emerged from the NIAID workshop “Complex Systems Science, Modeling and Immunity” and subsequent discussions regarding the potential synergy of high-throughput data acquisition, data-driven modeling and mechanistic modeling to define new mechanisms of immunological disease and to accelerate the translation of these insights into therapies. PMID:27986392

High performance cellular level agent-based simulation with FLAME for the GPU.

PubMed

Richmond, Paul; Walker, Dawn; Coakley, Simon; Romano, Daniela

2010-05-01

Driven by the availability of experimental data and ability to simulate a biological scale which is of immediate interest, the cellular scale is fast emerging as an ideal candidate for middle-out modelling. As with 'bottom-up' simulation approaches, cellular level simulations demand a high degree of computational power, which in large-scale simulations can only be achieved through parallel computing. The flexible large-scale agent modelling environment (FLAME) is a template driven framework for agent-based modelling (ABM) on parallel architectures ideally suited to the simulation of cellular systems. It is available for both high performance computing clusters (www.flame.ac.uk) and GPU hardware (www.flamegpu.com) and uses a formal specification technique that acts as a universal modelling format. This not only creates an abstraction from the underlying hardware architectures, but avoids the steep learning curve associated with programming them. In benchmarking tests and simulations of advanced cellular systems, FLAME GPU has reported massive improvement in performance over more traditional ABM frameworks. This allows the time spent in the development and testing stages of modelling to be drastically reduced and creates the possibility of real-time visualisation for simple visual face-validation.

Data-driven modelling of social forces and collective behaviour in zebrafish.

PubMed

Zienkiewicz, Adam K; Ladu, Fabrizio; Barton, David A W; Porfiri, Maurizio; Bernardo, Mario Di

2018-04-14

Zebrafish are rapidly emerging as a powerful model organism in hypothesis-driven studies targeting a number of functional and dysfunctional processes. Mathematical models of zebrafish behaviour can inform the design of experiments, through the unprecedented ability to perform pilot trials on a computer. At the same time, in-silico experiments could help refining the analysis of real data, by enabling the systematic investigation of key neurobehavioural factors. Here, we establish a data-driven model of zebrafish social interaction. Specifically, we derive a set of interaction rules to capture the primary response mechanisms which have been observed experimentally. Contrary to previous studies, we include dynamic speed regulation in addition to turning responses, which together provide attractive, repulsive and alignment interactions between individuals. The resulting multi-agent model provides a novel, bottom-up framework to describe both the spontaneous motion and individual-level interaction dynamics of zebrafish, inferred directly from experimental observations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Human sleep and circadian rhythms: a simple model based on two coupled oscillators.

PubMed

Strogatz, S H

1987-01-01

We propose a model of the human circadian system. The sleep-wake and body temperature rhythms are assumed to be driven by a pair of coupled nonlinear oscillators described by phase variables alone. The novel aspect of the model is that its equations may be solved analytically. Computer simulations are used to test the model against sleep-wake data pooled from 15 studies of subjects living for weeks in unscheduled, time-free environments. On these tests the model performs about as well as the existing models, although its mathematical structure is far simpler.

Explosively driven two-shockwave tools with applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buttler, W. T.; Oró, D. M.; Mariam, F. G.; Saunders, A.; Andrews, M. J.; Cherne, F. J.; Hammerberg, J. E.; Hixson, R. S.; Monfared, S. K.; Morris, C.; Olson, R. T.; Preston, D. L.; Stone, J. B.; Terrones, G.; Tupa, D.; Vogan-McNeil, W.

2014-05-01

We present the development of an explosively driven physics tool to generate two mostly uniaxial shockwaves. The tool is being used to extend single shockwave ejecta models to account for a second shockwave a few microseconds later. We explore techniques to vary the amplitude of both the first and second shockwaves, and we apply the tool experimentally at the Los Alamos National Laboratory Proton Radiography (pRad)facility. The tools have been applied to Sn with perturbations of wavelength λ = 550 μm, and various amplitudes that give wavenumber amplitude products of kh in {3/4,1/2,1/4,1/8}, where h is the perturbation amplitude, and k = 2π/λ is the wavenumber. The pRad data suggest the development of a second shock ejecta model based on unstable Richtmyer-Meshkov physics.

A novel model for simulating the racing effect in capillary-driven underfill process in flip chip

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Wenhui; Wang, Kanglun; Wang, Yan

2018-04-01

Underfill is typically applied in flip chips to increase the reliability of the electronic packagings. In this paper, the evolution of the melt-front shape of the capillary-driven underfill flow is studied through 3D numerical analysis. Two different models, the prevailing surface force model and the capillary model based on the wetted wall boundary condition, are introduced to test their applicability, where level set method is used to track the interface of the two phase flow. The comparison between the simulation results and experimental data indicates that, the surface force model produces better prediction on the melt-front shape, especially in the central area of the flip chip. Nevertheless, the two above models cannot simulate properly the racing effect phenomenon that appears during underfill encapsulation. A novel ‘dynamic pressure boundary condition’ method is proposed based on the validated surface force model. Utilizing this approach, the racing effect phenomenon is simulated with high precision. In addition, a linear relationship is derived from this model between the flow front location at the edge of the flip chip and the filling time. Using the proposed approach, the impact of the underfill-dispensing length on the melt-front shape is also studied.

An evaluation of data-driven motion estimation in comparison to the usage of external-surrogates in cardiac SPECT imaging

PubMed Central

Mukherjee, Joyeeta Mitra; Hutton, Brian F; Johnson, Karen L; Pretorius, P Hendrik; King, Michael A

2014-01-01

Motion estimation methods in single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) can be classified into methods which depend on just the emission data (data-driven), or those that use some other source of information such as an external surrogate. The surrogate-based methods estimate the motion exhibited externally which may not correlate exactly with the movement of organs inside the body. The accuracy of data-driven strategies on the other hand is affected by the type and timing of motion occurrence during acquisition, the source distribution, and various degrading factors such as attenuation, scatter, and system spatial resolution. The goal of this paper is to investigate the performance of two data-driven motion estimation schemes based on the rigid-body registration of projections of motion-transformed source distributions to the acquired projection data for cardiac SPECT studies. Comparison is also made of six intensity based registration metrics to an external surrogate-based method. In the data-driven schemes, a partially reconstructed heart is used as the initial source distribution. The partially-reconstructed heart has inaccuracies due to limited angle artifacts resulting from using only a part of the SPECT projections acquired while the patient maintained the same pose. The performance of different cost functions in quantifying consistency with the SPECT projection data in the data-driven schemes was compared for clinically realistic patient motion occurring as discrete pose changes, one or two times during acquisition. The six intensity-based metrics studied were mean-squared difference (MSD), mutual information (MI), normalized mutual information (NMI), pattern intensity (PI), normalized cross-correlation (NCC) and entropy of the difference (EDI). Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the performance is reported using Monte-Carlo simulations of a realistic heart phantom including degradation factors such as attenuation, scatter and system spatial resolution. Further the visual appearance of motion-corrected images using data-driven motion estimates was compared to that obtained using the external motion-tracking system in patient studies. Pattern intensity and normalized mutual information cost functions were observed to have the best performance in terms of lowest average position error and stability with degradation of image quality of the partial reconstruction in simulations. In all patients, the visual quality of PI-based estimation was either significantly better or comparable to NMI-based estimation. Best visual quality was obtained with PI-based estimation in 1 of the 5 patient studies, and with external-surrogate based correction in 3 out of 5 patients. In the remaining patient study there was little motion and all methods yielded similar visual image quality. PMID:24107647

A model for water discharge based on energy consumption data (WATEN).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moyano, María Carmen; Tornos, Lucía; Juana, Luis

2014-05-01

As the need for water conservation is becoming a major water concern, a lumped model entitled WATEN has been proposed to analyse the water balance in the B-XII Irrigation Sector of the Lower Guadalquivir Irrigated Area, one of the largest irrigated areas in Spain. The aim of this work is to approach the hydrological study of an irrigation district lacking of robust data in such a manner that the water balance is performed from less to more process complexity. WATEN parameters are the total and readily available moisture in the soil, a fix percentage for effective precipitation, and the irrigation efficiency. The Sector presents six different drainage pumping stations, with particular pumping groups and with no water flow measurement devices. Energy consumption depends on the working pumping stations and groups, and on the variable water level to discharge. Energy consumed in the drainage pumping stations has been used for calibration The study has relied on two monthly series of data: the volume of drainage obtained from the model and the energy consumed in the pumping stations. A double mass analysis has permitted the detection of data tendencies. The two resulting series of data have been compared to assess model performance, particularly the Pearson's product moment correlation coefficient and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency, e2, determined for monthly data and for annual and monthly average data. For model calibration, we have followed a classical approach based on objective functions optimization, and a robust approach based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation process, driven in a similar manner to genetic algorithms, entitled Parameters Estimation on Driven Trials (PEDT), and aiming to reduce computational requirements. WATEN has been parameterised maintaining its physical and conceptual rationality. The study approach is outlined as a progressive introduction of data. In this manner, we can observe its effect on the studied objective functions, and visualize if new data adds significant improvements to model results. The model attained an average Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient e2~= 0.90 between based on energy drainage observations and estimated drainage discharge. The study has shown that the Sector crop evapotranspiration, is lower than the expected value in pristine conditions. This reduction would be more noticeable at the end of the summer months, attaining as far as a 40% reduction. Average drainage in the studied period, is about 3700 m3/ha/year. This methodology is thought to be the basis for similar worldwide studies comprising scarce-data irrigation districts with drainage discharge to receiving water bodies, and serve as a guide for future alike applications.

PomBase: a comprehensive online resource for fission yeast

PubMed Central

Wood, Valerie; Harris, Midori A.; McDowall, Mark D.; Rutherford, Kim; Vaughan, Brendan W.; Staines, Daniel M.; Aslett, Martin; Lock, Antonia; Bähler, Jürg; Kersey, Paul J.; Oliver, Stephen G.

2012-01-01

PomBase (www.pombase.org) is a new model organism database established to provide access to comprehensive, accurate, and up-to-date molecular data and biological information for the fission yeast Schizosaccharomyces pombe to effectively support both exploratory and hypothesis-driven research. PomBase encompasses annotation of genomic sequence and features, comprehensive manual literature curation and genome-wide data sets, and supports sophisticated user-defined queries. The implementation of PomBase integrates a Chado relational database that houses manually curated data with Ensembl software that supports sequence-based annotation and web access. PomBase will provide user-friendly tools to promote curation by experts within the fission yeast community. This will make a key contribution to shaping its content and ensuring its comprehensiveness and long-term relevance. PMID:22039153

Inferring Muscle-Tendon Unit Power from Ankle Joint Power during the Push-Off Phase of Human Walking: Insights from a Multiarticular EMG-Driven Model

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Introduction Inverse dynamics joint kinetics are often used to infer contributions from underlying groups of muscle-tendon units (MTUs). However, such interpretations are confounded by multiarticular (multi-joint) musculature, which can cause inverse dynamics to over- or under-estimate net MTU power. Misestimation of MTU power could lead to incorrect scientific conclusions, or to empirical estimates that misguide musculoskeletal simulations, assistive device designs, or clinical interventions. The objective of this study was to investigate the degree to which ankle joint power overestimates net plantarflexor MTU power during the Push-off phase of walking, due to the behavior of the flexor digitorum and hallucis longus (FDHL)–multiarticular MTUs crossing the ankle and metatarsophalangeal (toe) joints. Methods We performed a gait analysis study on six healthy participants, recording ground reaction forces, kinematics, and electromyography (EMG). Empirical data were input into an EMG-driven musculoskeletal model to estimate ankle power. This model enabled us to parse contributions from mono- and multi-articular MTUs, and required only one scaling and one time delay factor for each subject and speed, which were solved for based on empirical data. Net plantarflexing MTU power was computed by the model and quantitatively compared to inverse dynamics ankle power. Results The EMG-driven model was able to reproduce inverse dynamics ankle power across a range of gait speeds (R2 ≥ 0.97), while also providing MTU-specific power estimates. We found that FDHL dynamics caused ankle power to slightly overestimate net plantarflexor MTU power, but only by ~2–7%. Conclusions During Push-off, FDHL MTU dynamics do not substantially confound the inference of net plantarflexor MTU power from inverse dynamics ankle power. However, other methodological limitations may cause inverse dynamics to overestimate net MTU power; for instance, due to rigid-body foot assumptions. Moving forward, the EMG-driven modeling approach presented could be applied to understand other tasks or larger multiarticular MTUs. PMID:27764110

Inferring Muscle-Tendon Unit Power from Ankle Joint Power during the Push-Off Phase of Human Walking: Insights from a Multiarticular EMG-Driven Model.

PubMed

Honert, Eric C; Zelik, Karl E

2016-01-01

Inverse dynamics joint kinetics are often used to infer contributions from underlying groups of muscle-tendon units (MTUs). However, such interpretations are confounded by multiarticular (multi-joint) musculature, which can cause inverse dynamics to over- or under-estimate net MTU power. Misestimation of MTU power could lead to incorrect scientific conclusions, or to empirical estimates that misguide musculoskeletal simulations, assistive device designs, or clinical interventions. The objective of this study was to investigate the degree to which ankle joint power overestimates net plantarflexor MTU power during the Push-off phase of walking, due to the behavior of the flexor digitorum and hallucis longus (FDHL)-multiarticular MTUs crossing the ankle and metatarsophalangeal (toe) joints. We performed a gait analysis study on six healthy participants, recording ground reaction forces, kinematics, and electromyography (EMG). Empirical data were input into an EMG-driven musculoskeletal model to estimate ankle power. This model enabled us to parse contributions from mono- and multi-articular MTUs, and required only one scaling and one time delay factor for each subject and speed, which were solved for based on empirical data. Net plantarflexing MTU power was computed by the model and quantitatively compared to inverse dynamics ankle power. The EMG-driven model was able to reproduce inverse dynamics ankle power across a range of gait speeds (R2 ≥ 0.97), while also providing MTU-specific power estimates. We found that FDHL dynamics caused ankle power to slightly overestimate net plantarflexor MTU power, but only by ~2-7%. During Push-off, FDHL MTU dynamics do not substantially confound the inference of net plantarflexor MTU power from inverse dynamics ankle power. However, other methodological limitations may cause inverse dynamics to overestimate net MTU power; for instance, due to rigid-body foot assumptions. Moving forward, the EMG-driven modeling approach presented could be applied to understand other tasks or larger multiarticular MTUs.

Complementing data-driven and physically-based approaches for predictive morphologic modeling: Results and implication from the Red River Basin, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmitt, R. J.; Bernardi, D.; Bizzi, S.; Castelletti, A.; Soncini-Sessa, R.

2013-12-01

During the last 30 years, the delta of the Red River (Song Hong) in northern Vietnam experienced grave morphologic degradation processes which severely impact economic activities and endanger region-wide livelihoods. Rapidly progressing river bed incision, for example, threatens the irrigation of the delta's paddy rice crops which constitute 20% of Vietnam's annual rice production. Morphologic alteration is related to a drastically changed sediment balance due to major upstream impoundments, sediment mining and land use changes, further aggravated by changing hydro-meteorological conditions. Despite the severe impacts, river morphology was so far not included into the current efforts to optimize basin wide water resource planning for a lack of suitable, not overly resource demanding modeling strategies. This paper assesses the suitability of data-driven models to provide insights into complex hydromorphologic processes and to complement and enrich physically-based modeling strategies. Hence, to identify key drivers of morphological change while evaluating impacts of future socio-economic, management and climate scenarios on river morphology and the resulting effects on key social needs (e.g. water supply, energy production and flood mitigation). Most relevant drivers and time-scales for the considered processes (e.g. incision) - from days to decades - were identified from hydrologic and sedimentologic time-series using a feature ranking algorithm based on random trees. The feature ranking pointed out bimodal response characteristics, with important contributions of long-to-medium (5 - 15 yrs.) and rather short (10d - 6 months) timescales. An artificial neural network (ANN), built from identified variables, subsequently quantified in detail how these temporal components control long term trends, inter-seasonal fluctuations and day to day variations in morphologic processes. Whereas the general trajectory of incision relates, for example, to the overall regional sediment balance over an extended time-horizon (>15 yrs.), upstream impoundments induce a much more rapid adaptation (1-5 yrs.). The applicability of the ANN as predictive model was evaluated by comparing its results with a traditional, 1D bed evolution model. The next decade's morphologic evolution under an ensemble of scenarios, considering uncertainties in climatic change, socio-economic development and upstream reservoir release policies was derived from both models. The ANN greatly outperforms the 1D model in computational requirements and presents a powerful tool for effective assessment of scenario ensembles and quantification of uncertainties in river hydro-morphology. In contrast, the processes-based model provides detailed, spatio-temporally distributed outputs and validation of the ANN's results for selected scenarios. We conclude that the application of both approaches constitutes a mutually enriching strategy for modern, quantitative catchment management. We argue that physically based modeling can have specific spatial and temporal constrains (e.g. in terms of identifying key drivers and associated temporal and spatial domains) and that linking physically-based with data-driven approaches largely increases the potential for including hydro-morphology into basin-scale water resource management.

Re-evaluation of heat flow data near Parkfield, CA: Evidence for a weak San Andreas Fault

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fulton, P.M.; Saffer, D.M.; Harris, Reid N.; Bekins, B.A.

2004-01-01

Improved interpretations of the strength of the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield, CA based on thermal data require quantification of processes causing significant scatter and uncertainty in existing heat flow data. These effects include topographic refraction, heat advection by topographically-driven groundwater flow, and uncertainty in thermal conductivity. Here, we re-evaluate the heat flow data in this area by correcting for full 3-D terrain effects. We then investigate the potential role of groundwater flow in redistributing fault-generated heat, using numerical models of coupled heat and fluid flow for a wide range of hydrologic scenarios. We find that a large degree of the scatter in the data can be accounted for by 3-D terrain effects, and that for plausible groundwater flow scenarios frictional heat generated along a strong fault is unlikely to be redistributed by topographically-driven groundwater flow in a manner consistent with the 3-D corrected data. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

A Finite Element Model for Mixed Porohyperelasticity with Transport, Swelling, and Growth.

PubMed

Armstrong, Michelle Hine; Buganza Tepole, Adrián; Kuhl, Ellen; Simon, Bruce R; Vande Geest, Jonathan P

2016-01-01

The purpose of this manuscript is to establish a unified theory of porohyperelasticity with transport and growth and to demonstrate the capability of this theory using a finite element model developed in MATLAB. We combine the theories of volumetric growth and mixed porohyperelasticity with transport and swelling (MPHETS) to derive a new method that models growth of biological soft tissues. The conservation equations and constitutive equations are developed for both solid-only growth and solid/fluid growth. An axisymmetric finite element framework is introduced for the new theory of growing MPHETS (GMPHETS). To illustrate the capabilities of this model, several example finite element test problems are considered using model geometry and material parameters based on experimental data from a porcine coronary artery. Multiple growth laws are considered, including time-driven, concentration-driven, and stress-driven growth. Time-driven growth is compared against an exact analytical solution to validate the model. For concentration-dependent growth, changing the diffusivity (representing a change in drug) fundamentally changes growth behavior. We further demonstrate that for stress-dependent, solid-only growth of an artery, growth of an MPHETS model results in a more uniform hoop stress than growth in a hyperelastic model for the same amount of growth time using the same growth law. This may have implications in the context of developing residual stresses in soft tissues under intraluminal pressure. To our knowledge, this manuscript provides the first full description of an MPHETS model with growth. The developed computational framework can be used in concert with novel in-vitro and in-vivo experimental approaches to identify the governing growth laws for various soft tissues.

A Finite Element Model for Mixed Porohyperelasticity with Transport, Swelling, and Growth

PubMed Central

Armstrong, Michelle Hine; Buganza Tepole, Adrián; Kuhl, Ellen; Simon, Bruce R.; Vande Geest, Jonathan P.

2016-01-01

The purpose of this manuscript is to establish a unified theory of porohyperelasticity with transport and growth and to demonstrate the capability of this theory using a finite element model developed in MATLAB. We combine the theories of volumetric growth and mixed porohyperelasticity with transport and swelling (MPHETS) to derive a new method that models growth of biological soft tissues. The conservation equations and constitutive equations are developed for both solid-only growth and solid/fluid growth. An axisymmetric finite element framework is introduced for the new theory of growing MPHETS (GMPHETS). To illustrate the capabilities of this model, several example finite element test problems are considered using model geometry and material parameters based on experimental data from a porcine coronary artery. Multiple growth laws are considered, including time-driven, concentration-driven, and stress-driven growth. Time-driven growth is compared against an exact analytical solution to validate the model. For concentration-dependent growth, changing the diffusivity (representing a change in drug) fundamentally changes growth behavior. We further demonstrate that for stress-dependent, solid-only growth of an artery, growth of an MPHETS model results in a more uniform hoop stress than growth in a hyperelastic model for the same amount of growth time using the same growth law. This may have implications in the context of developing residual stresses in soft tissues under intraluminal pressure. To our knowledge, this manuscript provides the first full description of an MPHETS model with growth. The developed computational framework can be used in concert with novel in-vitro and in-vivo experimental approaches to identify the governing growth laws for various soft tissues. PMID:27078495

Calibration and analysis of genome-based models for microbial ecology.

PubMed

Louca, Stilianos; Doebeli, Michael

2015-10-16

Microbial ecosystem modeling is complicated by the large number of unknown parameters and the lack of appropriate calibration tools. Here we present a novel computational framework for modeling microbial ecosystems, which combines genome-based model construction with statistical analysis and calibration to experimental data. Using this framework, we examined the dynamics of a community of Escherichia coli strains that emerged in laboratory evolution experiments, during which an ancestral strain diversified into two coexisting ecotypes. We constructed a microbial community model comprising the ancestral and the evolved strains, which we calibrated using separate monoculture experiments. Simulations reproduced the successional dynamics in the evolution experiments, and pathway activation patterns observed in microarray transcript profiles. Our approach yielded detailed insights into the metabolic processes that drove bacterial diversification, involving acetate cross-feeding and competition for organic carbon and oxygen. Our framework provides a missing link towards a data-driven mechanistic microbial ecology.

Multi-gene genetic programming based predictive models for municipal solid waste gasification in a fluidized bed gasifier.

PubMed

Pandey, Daya Shankar; Pan, Indranil; Das, Saptarshi; Leahy, James J; Kwapinski, Witold

2015-03-01

A multi-gene genetic programming technique is proposed as a new method to predict syngas yield production and the lower heating value for municipal solid waste gasification in a fluidized bed gasifier. The study shows that the predicted outputs of the municipal solid waste gasification process are in good agreement with the experimental dataset and also generalise well to validation (untrained) data. Published experimental datasets are used for model training and validation purposes. The results show the effectiveness of the genetic programming technique for solving complex nonlinear regression problems. The multi-gene genetic programming are also compared with a single-gene genetic programming model to show the relative merits and demerits of the technique. This study demonstrates that the genetic programming based data-driven modelling strategy can be a good candidate for developing models for other types of fuels as well. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Combining Relevance Vector Machines and exponential regression for bearing residual life estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Maio, Francesco; Tsui, Kwok Leung; Zio, Enrico

2012-08-01

In this paper we present a new procedure for estimating the bearing Residual Useful Life (RUL) by combining data-driven and model-based techniques. Respectively, we resort to (i) Relevance Vector Machines (RVMs) for selecting a low number of significant basis functions, called Relevant Vectors (RVs), and (ii) exponential regression to compute and continuously update residual life estimations. The combination of these techniques is developed with reference to partially degraded thrust ball bearings and tested on real world vibration-based degradation data. On the case study considered, the proposed procedure outperforms other model-based methods, with the added value of an adequate representation of the uncertainty associated to the estimates of the quantification of the credibility of the results by the Prognostic Horizon (PH) metric.

Reconstructing shifts in vital rates driven by long-term environmental change: a new demographic method based on readily available data.

PubMed

González, Edgar J; Martorell, Carlos

2013-07-01

Frequently, vital rates are driven by directional, long-term environmental changes. Many of these are of great importance, such as land degradation, climate change, and succession. Traditional demographic methods assume a constant or stationary environment, and thus are inappropriate to analyze populations subject to these changes. They also require repeat surveys of the individuals as change unfolds. Methods for reconstructing such lengthy processes are needed. We present a model that, based on a time series of population size structures and densities, reconstructs the impact of directional environmental changes on vital rates. The model uses integral projection models and maximum likelihood to identify the rates that best reconstructs the time series. The procedure was validated with artificial and real data. The former involved simulated species with widely different demographic behaviors. The latter used a chronosequence of populations of an endangered cactus subject to increasing anthropogenic disturbance. In our simulations, the vital rates and their change were always reconstructed accurately. Nevertheless, the model frequently produced alternative results. The use of coarse knowledge of the species' biology (whether vital rates increase or decrease with size or their plausible values) allowed the correct rates to be identified with a 90% success rate. With real data, the model correctly reconstructed the effects of disturbance on vital rates. These effects were previously known from two populations for which demographic data were available. Our procedure seems robust, as the data violated several of the model's assumptions. Thus, time series of size structures and densities contain the necessary information to reconstruct changing vital rates. However, additional biological knowledge may be required to provide reliable results. Because time series of size structures and densities are available for many species or can be rapidly generated, our model can contribute to understand populations that face highly pressing environmental problems.

Reconstructing shifts in vital rates driven by long-term environmental change: a new demographic method based on readily available data

PubMed Central

González, Edgar J; Martorell, Carlos

2013-01-01

Frequently, vital rates are driven by directional, long-term environmental changes. Many of these are of great importance, such as land degradation, climate change, and succession. Traditional demographic methods assume a constant or stationary environment, and thus are inappropriate to analyze populations subject to these changes. They also require repeat surveys of the individuals as change unfolds. Methods for reconstructing such lengthy processes are needed. We present a model that, based on a time series of population size structures and densities, reconstructs the impact of directional environmental changes on vital rates. The model uses integral projection models and maximum likelihood to identify the rates that best reconstructs the time series. The procedure was validated with artificial and real data. The former involved simulated species with widely different demographic behaviors. The latter used a chronosequence of populations of an endangered cactus subject to increasing anthropogenic disturbance. In our simulations, the vital rates and their change were always reconstructed accurately. Nevertheless, the model frequently produced alternative results. The use of coarse knowledge of the species' biology (whether vital rates increase or decrease with size or their plausible values) allowed the correct rates to be identified with a 90% success rate. With real data, the model correctly reconstructed the effects of disturbance on vital rates. These effects were previously known from two populations for which demographic data were available. Our procedure seems robust, as the data violated several of the model's assumptions. Thus, time series of size structures and densities contain the necessary information to reconstruct changing vital rates. However, additional biological knowledge may be required to provide reliable results. Because time series of size structures and densities are available for many species or can be rapidly generated, our model can contribute to understand populations that face highly pressing environmental problems. PMID:23919169

Event-driven simulations of nonlinear integrate-and-fire neurons.

PubMed

Tonnelier, Arnaud; Belmabrouk, Hana; Martinez, Dominique

2007-12-01

Event-driven strategies have been used to simulate spiking neural networks exactly. Previous work is limited to linear integrate-and-fire neurons. In this note, we extend event-driven schemes to a class of nonlinear integrate-and-fire models. Results are presented for the quadratic integrate-and-fire model with instantaneous or exponential synaptic currents. Extensions to conductance-based currents and exponential integrate-and-fire neurons are discussed.

Non-linear Interactions between Niño region 3 and the Southern Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, A. M. D. T.; Builes-Jaramillo, L. A.; Poveda, G.; Goswami, B.; Macau, E. E. N.; Kurths, J.; Marwan, N.

2016-12-01

Identifying causal relations from the observational dataset has posed great challenges in data-driven inference study. However, complex system framework offers promising approaches to tackle such problems. Here we propose a new data-driven causality inference method using the framework of recurrence plots. We present the Recurrence Measure of Conditional Dependence (RMCD) and its applications. The RMCD incorporates the recurrence behavior into the transfer entropy theory. Therefore, it quantifies the causal dependence between two processes based on joint recurrence patterns between the past of the potential driver and present on the potential driven, except for any contribution that has already been in the past of the driven. We apply this methodology to some paradigmatic models and to investigate the possible influence of the Pacific Ocean temperatures on the South West Amazon for the 2010 and 2005 droughts. The results reveal that for the 2005 drought there is not a significant signal of dependence from the Pacific Ocean and that for 2010 there is a signal of dependence of around 200 days. These outcomes are confirmed by the traditional climatological analysis of these episodes available in the literature and show the accuracy of RMCD inferring causal relations in climate systems.

Variance stabilization and normalization for one-color microarray data using a data-driven multiscale approach.

PubMed

Motakis, E S; Nason, G P; Fryzlewicz, P; Rutter, G A

2006-10-15

Many standard statistical techniques are effective on data that are normally distributed with constant variance. Microarray data typically violate these assumptions since they come from non-Gaussian distributions with a non-trivial mean-variance relationship. Several methods have been proposed that transform microarray data to stabilize variance and draw its distribution towards the Gaussian. Some methods, such as log or generalized log, rely on an underlying model for the data. Others, such as the spread-versus-level plot, do not. We propose an alternative data-driven multiscale approach, called the Data-Driven Haar-Fisz for microarrays (DDHFm) with replicates. DDHFm has the advantage of being 'distribution-free' in the sense that no parametric model for the underlying microarray data is required to be specified or estimated; hence, DDHFm can be applied very generally, not just to microarray data. DDHFm achieves very good variance stabilization of microarray data with replicates and produces transformed intensities that are approximately normally distributed. Simulation studies show that it performs better than other existing methods. Application of DDHFm to real one-color cDNA data validates these results. The R package of the Data-Driven Haar-Fisz transform (DDHFm) for microarrays is available in Bioconductor and CRAN.

A community initiative for developing data and modeling driven curriculum modules for hydrology education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruddell, B. L.; Merwade, V.

2010-12-01

Hydrology and geoscience education at the undergraduate and graduate levels may benefit greatly from a structured approach to pedagogy that utilizes modeling, authentic data, and simulation exercises to engage students in practice-like activities. Extensive evidence in the educational literature suggests that students retain more of their instruction, and attain higher levels of mastery over content, when interactive and practice-like activities are used to contextualize traditional lecture-based and theory-based instruction. However, it is also important that these activities carefully link the use of data and modeling to abstract theory, to promote transfer of knowledge to other contexts. While this type of data-based activity has been practiced in the hydrology classroom for decades, the hydrology community still lacks a set of standards and a mechanism for community-based development, publication, and review of this type of curriculum material. A community-based initiative is underway to develop a set curriculum materials to teach hydrology in the engineering and geoscience university classroom using outcomes-based, pedagogically rigorous modules that use authentic data and modeling experiences to complement traditional lecture-based instruction. A preliminary design for a community cyberinfrastructure for shared module development and publication, and for module topics and outcomes and ametadata and module interoperability standards, will be presented, along with the results of a series of community surveys and workshops informing this design.

A Multi-mission Event-Driven Component-Based System for Support of Flight Software Development, ATLO, and Operations first used by the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dehghani, Navid; Tankenson, Michael

2006-01-01

This paper details an architectural description of the Mission Data Processing and Control System (MPCS), an event-driven, multi-mission ground data processing components providing uplink, downlink, and data management capabilities which will support the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) project as its first target mission. MPCS is developed based on a set of small reusable components, implemented in Java, each designed with a specific function and well-defined interfaces. An industry standard messaging bus is used to transfer information among system components. Components generate standard messages which are used to capture system information, as well as triggers to support the event-driven architecture of the system. Event-driven systems are highly desirable for processing high-rate telemetry (science and engineering) data, and for supporting automation for many mission operations processes.

Model-driven meta-analyses for informing health care: a diabetes meta-analysis as an exemplar.

PubMed

Brown, Sharon A; Becker, Betsy Jane; García, Alexandra A; Brown, Adama; Ramírez, Gilbert

2015-04-01

A relatively novel type of meta-analysis, a model-driven meta-analysis, involves the quantitative synthesis of descriptive, correlational data and is useful for identifying key predictors of health outcomes and informing clinical guidelines. Few such meta-analyses have been conducted and thus, large bodies of research remain unsynthesized and uninterpreted for application in health care. We describe the unique challenges of conducting a model-driven meta-analysis, focusing primarily on issues related to locating a sample of published and unpublished primary studies, extracting and verifying descriptive and correlational data, and conducting analyses. A current meta-analysis of the research on predictors of key health outcomes in diabetes is used to illustrate our main points. © The Author(s) 2014.

MODEL-DRIVEN META-ANALYSES FOR INFORMING HEALTH CARE: A DIABETES META-ANALYSIS AS AN EXEMPLAR

PubMed Central

Brown, Sharon A.; Becker, Betsy Jane; García, Alexandra A.; Brown, Adama; Ramírez, Gilbert

2015-01-01

A relatively novel type of meta-analysis, a model-driven meta-analysis, involves the quantitative synthesis of descriptive, correlational data and is useful for identifying key predictors of health outcomes and informing clinical guidelines. Few such meta-analyses have been conducted and thus, large bodies of research remain unsynthesized and uninterpreted for application in health care. We describe the unique challenges of conducting a model-driven meta-analysis, focusing primarily on issues related to locating a sample of published and unpublished primary studies, extracting and verifying descriptive and correlational data, and conducting analyses. A current meta-analysis of the research on predictors of key health outcomes in diabetes is used to illustrate our main points. PMID:25142707

Data-driven, Interpretable Photometric Redshifts Trained on Heterogeneous and Unrepresentative Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leistedt, Boris; Hogg, David W.

2017-03-01

We present a new method for inferring photometric redshifts in deep galaxy and quasar surveys, based on a data-driven model of latent spectral energy distributions (SEDs) and a physical model of photometric fluxes as a function of redshift. This conceptually novel approach combines the advantages of both machine learning methods and template fitting methods by building template SEDs directly from the spectroscopic training data. This is made computationally tractable with Gaussian processes operating in flux-redshift space, encoding the physics of redshifts and the projection of galaxy SEDs onto photometric bandpasses. This method alleviates the need to acquire representative training data or to construct detailed galaxy SED models; it requires only that the photometric bandpasses and calibrations be known or have parameterized unknowns. The training data can consist of a combination of spectroscopic and deep many-band photometric data with reliable redshifts, which do not need to entirely spatially overlap with the target survey of interest or even involve the same photometric bands. We showcase the method on the I-magnitude-selected, spectroscopically confirmed galaxies in the COSMOS field. The model is trained on the deepest bands (from SUBARU and HST) and photometric redshifts are derived using the shallower SDSS optical bands only. We demonstrate that we obtain accurate redshift point estimates and probability distributions despite the training and target sets having very different redshift distributions, noise properties, and even photometric bands. Our model can also be used to predict missing photometric fluxes or to simulate populations of galaxies with realistic fluxes and redshifts, for example.

WE-EF-207-01: FEATURED PRESENTATION and BEST IN PHYSICS (IMAGING): Task-Driven Imaging for Cone-Beam CT in Interventional Guidance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gang, G; Stayman, J; Ouadah, S

2015-06-15

Purpose: This work introduces a task-driven imaging framework that utilizes a patient-specific anatomical model, mathematical definition of the imaging task, and a model of the imaging system to prospectively design acquisition and reconstruction techniques that maximize task-based imaging performance. Utility of the framework is demonstrated in the joint optimization of tube current modulation and view-dependent reconstruction kernel in filtered-backprojection reconstruction and non-circular orbit design in model-based reconstruction. Methods: The system model is based on a cascaded systems analysis of cone-beam CT capable of predicting the spatially varying noise and resolution characteristics as a function of the anatomical model and amore » wide range of imaging parameters. Detectability index for a non-prewhitening observer model is used as the objective function in a task-driven optimization. The combination of tube current and reconstruction kernel modulation profiles were identified through an alternating optimization algorithm where tube current was updated analytically followed by a gradient-based optimization of reconstruction kernel. The non-circular orbit is first parameterized as a linear combination of bases functions and the coefficients were then optimized using an evolutionary algorithm. The task-driven strategy was compared with conventional acquisitions without modulation, using automatic exposure control, and in a circular orbit. Results: The task-driven strategy outperformed conventional techniques in all tasks investigated, improving the detectability of a spherical lesion detection task by an average of 50% in the interior of a pelvis phantom. The non-circular orbit design successfully mitigated photon starvation effects arising from a dense embolization coil in a head phantom, improving the conspicuity of an intracranial hemorrhage proximal to the coil. Conclusion: The task-driven imaging framework leverages a knowledge of the imaging task within a patient-specific anatomical model to optimize image acquisition and reconstruction techniques, thereby improving imaging performance beyond that achievable with conventional approaches. 2R01-CA-112163; R01-EB-017226; U01-EB-018758; Siemens Healthcare (Forcheim, Germany)« less

The eGo grid model: An open source approach towards a model of German high and extra-high voltage power grids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, Ulf Philipp; Wienholt, Lukas; Kleinhans, David; Cussmann, Ilka; Bunke, Wolf-Dieter; Pleßmann, Guido; Wendiggensen, Jochen

2018-02-01

There are several power grid modelling approaches suitable for simulations in the field of power grid planning. The restrictive policies of grid operators, regulators and research institutes concerning their original data and models lead to an increased interest in open source approaches of grid models based on open data. By including all voltage levels between 60 kV (high voltage) and 380kV (extra high voltage), we dissolve the common distinction between transmission and distribution grid in energy system models and utilize a single, integrated model instead. An open data set for primarily Germany, which can be used for non-linear, linear and linear-optimal power flow methods, was developed. This data set consists of an electrically parameterised grid topology as well as allocated generation and demand characteristics for present and future scenarios at high spatial and temporal resolution. The usability of the grid model was demonstrated by the performance of exemplary power flow optimizations. Based on a marginal cost driven power plant dispatch, being subject to grid restrictions, congested power lines were identified. Continuous validation of the model is nescessary in order to reliably model storage and grid expansion in progressing research.

Investigating the application of Rasch theory in measuring change in middle school student performance in physical science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunningham, Jessica D.

Newton's Universe (NU), an innovative teacher training program, strives to obtain measures from rural, middle school science teachers and their students to determine the impact of its distance learning course on understanding of temperature. No consensus exists on the most appropriate and useful method of analysis to measure change in psychological constructs over time. Several item response theory (IRT) models have been deemed useful in measuring change, which makes the choice of an IRT model not obvious. The appropriateness and utility of each model, including a comparison to a traditional analysis of variance approach, was investigated using middle school science student performance on an assessment over an instructional period. Predetermined criteria were outlined to guide model selection based on several factors including research questions, data properties, and meaningful interpretations to determine the most appropriate model for this study. All methods employed in this study reiterated one common interpretation of the data -- specifically, that the students of teachers with any NU course experience had significantly greater gains in performance over the instructional period. However, clear distinctions were made between an analysis of variance and the racked and stacked analysis using the Rasch model. Although limited research exists examining the usefulness of the Rasch model in measuring change in understanding over time, this study applied these methods and detailed plausible implications for data-driven decisions based upon results for NU and others. Being mindful of the advantages and usefulness of each method of analysis may help others make informed decisions about choosing an appropriate model to depict changes to evaluate other programs. Results may encourage other researchers to consider the meaningfulness of using IRT for this purpose. Results have implications for data-driven decisions for future professional development courses, in science education and other disciplines. KEYWORDS: Item Response Theory, Rasch Model, Racking and Stacking, Measuring Change in Student Performance, Newton's Universe teacher training

Stream-flow forecasting using extreme learning machines: A case study in a semi-arid region in Iraq

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yaseen, Zaher Mundher; Jaafar, Othman; Deo, Ravinesh C.; Kisi, Ozgur; Adamowski, Jan; Quilty, John; El-Shafie, Ahmed

2016-11-01

Monthly stream-flow forecasting can yield important information for hydrological applications including sustainable design of rural and urban water management systems, optimization of water resource allocations, water use, pricing and water quality assessment, and agriculture and irrigation operations. The motivation for exploring and developing expert predictive models is an ongoing endeavor for hydrological applications. In this study, the potential of a relatively new data-driven method, namely the extreme learning machine (ELM) method, was explored for forecasting monthly stream-flow discharge rates in the Tigris River, Iraq. The ELM algorithm is a single-layer feedforward neural network (SLFNs) which randomly selects the input weights, hidden layer biases and analytically determines the output weights of the SLFNs. Based on the partial autocorrelation functions of historical stream-flow data, a set of five input combinations with lagged stream-flow values are employed to establish the best forecasting model. A comparative investigation is conducted to evaluate the performance of the ELM compared to other data-driven models: support vector regression (SVR) and generalized regression neural network (GRNN). The forecasting metrics defined as the correlation coefficient (r), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS), Willmott's Index (WI), root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) computed between the observed and forecasted stream-flow data are employed to assess the ELM model's effectiveness. The results revealed that the ELM model outperformed the SVR and the GRNN models across a number of statistical measures. In quantitative terms, superiority of ELM over SVR and GRNN models was exhibited by ENS = 0.578, 0.378 and 0.144, r = 0.799, 0.761 and 0.468 and WI = 0.853, 0.802 and 0.689, respectively and the ELM model attained lower RMSE value by approximately 21.3% (relative to SVR) and by approximately 44.7% (relative to GRNN). Based on the findings of this study, several recommendations were suggested for further exploration of the ELM model in hydrological forecasting problems.

Nuclear Methods for Transmutation of Nuclear Waste: Problems, Perspextives, Cooperative Research - Proceedings of the International Workshop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khankhasayev, Zhanat B.; Kurmanov, Hans; Plendl, Mikhail Kh.

1996-12-01

The Table of Contents for the full book PDF is as follows: * Preface * I. Review of Current Status of Nuclear Transmutation Projects * Accelerator-Driven Systems — Survey of the Research Programs in the World * The Los Alamos Accelerator-Driven Transmutation of Nuclear Waste Concept * Nuclear Waste Transmutation Program in the Czech Republic * Tentative Results of the ISTC Supported Study of the ADTT Plutonium Disposition * Recent Neutron Physics Investigations for the Back End of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle * Optimisation of Accelerator Systems for Transmutation of Nuclear Waste * Proton Linac of the Moscow Meson Factory for the ADTT Experiments * II. Computer Modeling of Nuclear Waste Transmutation Methods and Systems * Transmutation of Minor Actinides in Different Nuclear Facilities * Monte Carlo Modeling of Electro-nuclear Processes with Nonlinear Effects * Simulation of Hybrid Systems with a GEANT Based Program * Computer Study of 90Sr and 137Cs Transmutation by Proton Beam * Methods and Computer Codes for Burn-Up and Fast Transients Calculations in Subcritical Systems with External Sources * New Model of Calculation of Fission Product Yields for the ADTT Problem * Monte Carlo Simulation of Accelerator-Reactor Systems * III. Data Basis for Transmutation of Actinides and Fission Products * Nuclear Data in the Accelerator Driven Transmutation Problem * Nuclear Data to Study Radiation Damage, Activation, and Transmutation of Materials Irradiated by Particles of Intermediate and High Energies * Radium Institute Investigations on the Intermediate Energy Nuclear Data on Hybrid Nuclear Technologies * Nuclear Data Requirements in Intermediate Energy Range for Improvement of Calculations of ADTT Target Processes * IV. Experimental Studies and Projects * ADTT Experiments at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center * Neutron Multiplicity Distributions for GeV Proton Induced Spallation Reactions on Thin and Thick Targets of Pb and U * Solid State Nuclear Track Detector and Radiochemical Studies on the Transmutation of Nuclei Using Relativistic Heavy Ions * Experimental and Theoretical Study of Radionuclide Production on the Electronuclear Plant Target and Construction Materials Irradiated by 1.5 GeV and 130 MeV Protons * Neutronics and Power Deposition Parameters of the Targets Proposed in the ISTC Project 17 * Multicycle Irradiation of Plutonium in Solid Fuel Heavy-Water Blanket of ADS * Compound Neutron Valve of Accelerator-Driven System Sectioned Blanket * Subcritical Channel-Type Reactor for Weapon Plutonium Utilization * Accelerator Driven Molten-Fluoride Reactor with Modular Heat Exchangers on PB-BI Eutectic * A New Conception of High Power Ion Linac for ADTT * Pions and Accelerator-Driven Transmutation of Nuclear Waste? * V. Problems and Perspectives * Accelerator-Driven Transmutation Technologies for Resolution of Long-Term Nuclear Waste Concerns * Closing the Nuclear Fuel-Cycle and Moving Toward a Sustainable Energy Development * Workshop Summary * List of Participants

Multiple mechanisms of Amazonian forest biomass losses in three dynamic global vegetation models under climate change.

PubMed

Galbraith, David; Levy, Peter E; Sitch, Stephen; Huntingford, Chris; Cox, Peter; Williams, Mathew; Meir, Patrick

2010-08-01

*The large-scale loss of Amazonian rainforest under some future climate scenarios has generally been considered to be driven by increased drying over Amazonia predicted by some general circulation models (GCMs). However, the importance of rainfall relative to other drivers has never been formally examined. *Here, we conducted factorial simulations to ascertain the contributions of four environmental drivers (precipitation, temperature, humidity and CO(2)) to simulated changes in Amazonian vegetation carbon (C(veg)), in three dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) forced with climate data based on HadCM3 for four SRES scenarios. *Increased temperature was found to be more important than precipitation reduction in causing losses of Amazonian C(veg) in two DGVMs (Hyland and TRIFFID), and as important as precipitation reduction in a third DGVM (LPJ). Increases in plant respiration, direct declines in photosynthesis and increases in vapour pressure deficit (VPD) all contributed to reduce C(veg) under high temperature, but the contribution of each mechanism varied greatly across models. Rising CO(2) mitigated much of the climate-driven biomass losses in the models. *Additional work is required to constrain model behaviour with experimental data under conditions of high temperature and drought. Current models may be overly sensitive to long-term elevated temperatures as they do not account for physiological acclimation.

Strong Stellar-driven Outflows Shape the Evolution of Galaxies at Cosmic Dawn

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fontanot, Fabio; De Lucia, Gabriella; Hirschmann, Michaela

We study galaxy mass assembly and cosmic star formation rate (SFR) at high redshift (z ≳ 4), by comparing data from multiwavelength surveys with predictions from the GAlaxy Evolution and Assembly (gaea) model. gaea implements a stellar feedback scheme partially based on cosmological hydrodynamical simulations, which features strong stellar-driven outflows and mass-dependent timescales for the re-accretion of ejected gas. In previous work, we have shown that this scheme is able to correctly reproduce the evolution of the galaxy stellar mass function (GSMF) up to z ∼ 3. We contrast model predictions with both rest-frame ultraviolet (UV) and optical luminosity functionsmore » (LFs), which are mostly sensitive to the SFR and stellar mass, respectively. We show that gaea is able to reproduce the shape and redshift evolution of both sets of LFs. We study the impact of dust on the predicted LFs, and we find that the required level of dust attenuation is in qualitative agreement with recent estimates based on the UV continuum slope. The consistency between data and model predictions holds for the redshift evolution of the physical quantities well beyond the redshift range considered for the calibration of the original model. In particular, we show that gaea is able to recover the evolution of the GSMF up to z ∼ 7 and the cosmic SFR density up to z ∼ 10.« less

Data-driven approach to human motion modeling with Lua and gesture description language

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hachaj, Tomasz; Koptyra, Katarzyna; Ogiela, Marek R.

2017-03-01

The aim of this paper is to present the novel proposition of the human motion modelling and recognition approach that enables real time MoCap signal evaluation. By motions (actions) recognition we mean classification. The role of this approach is to propose the syntactic description procedure that can be easily understood, learnt and used in various motion modelling and recognition tasks in all MoCap systems no matter if they are vision or wearable sensor based. To do so we have prepared extension of Gesture Description Language (GDL) methodology that enables movements description and real-time recognition so that it can use not only positional coordinates of body joints but virtually any type of discreetly measured output MoCap signals like accelerometer, magnetometer or gyroscope. We have also prepared and evaluated the cross-platform implementation of this approach using Lua scripting language and JAVA technology. This implementation is called Data Driven GDL (DD-GDL). In tested scenarios the average execution speed is above 100 frames per second which is an acquisition time of many popular MoCap solutions.

Clinical data interoperability based on archetype transformation.

PubMed

Costa, Catalina Martínez; Menárguez-Tortosa, Marcos; Fernández-Breis, Jesualdo Tomás

2011-10-01

The semantic interoperability between health information systems is a major challenge to improve the quality of clinical practice and patient safety. In recent years many projects have faced this problem and provided solutions based on specific standards and technologies in order to satisfy the needs of a particular scenario. Most of such solutions cannot be easily adapted to new scenarios, thus more global solutions are needed. In this work, we have focused on the semantic interoperability of electronic healthcare records standards based on the dual model architecture and we have developed a solution that has been applied to ISO 13606 and openEHR. The technological infrastructure combines reference models, archetypes and ontologies, with the support of Model-driven Engineering techniques. For this purpose, the interoperability infrastructure developed in previous work by our group has been reused and extended to cover the requirements of data transformation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics-based Wind Representation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prescott, Steven; Smith, Curtis; Hess, Stephen

2016-12-01

As a result of the 2011 accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP and other operational NPP experience, there is an identified need to better characterize and evaluate the potential impacts of externally generated hazards on NPP safety. Due to the ubiquitous occurrence of high winds around the world and the possible extreme magnitude of the hazard that has been observed, the assessment of the impact of the high-winds hazard has been identified as an important activity by both NPP owner-operators and regulatory authorities. However, recent experience obtained from the conduct of high-winds risk assessments indicates that such activities have beenmore » both labor-intensive and expensive to perform. Additionally, the existing suite of methods and tools to conduct such assessments (which were developed decades ago) do not make use of modern computational architectures (e.g., parallel processing, object-oriented programming techniques, or simple user interfaces) or methods (e.g., efficient and robust numerical-solution schemes). As a result, the current suite of methods and tools will rapidly become obsolete. Physics-based 3D simulation methods can provide information to assist in the RISMC PRA methodology. This research is intended to determine what benefits SPH methods could bring to high-winds simulations for the purposes of assessing their potential impact on NPP safety. The initial investigation has determined that SPH can simulate key areas of high-wind events with reasonable accuracy, compared to other methods. Some problems, such as simulation voids, need to be addressed, but possible solutions have been identified and will be tested with continued work. This work also demonstrated that SPH simulations can provide a means for simulating debris movement; however, further investigations into the capability to determine the impact of high winds and the impacts of wind-driven debris that lead to SSC failures need to be done. SPH simulations alone would be limited in size and computation time. An advanced method of combing results from grid-based methods with SPH through a data-driven model is proposed. This method could allow for more accurate simulation of particle movement near rigid bodies even with larger SPH particle sizes. If successful, the data-driven model would eliminate the need for a SPH turbulence model and increase the simulation domain size. Continued research beyond the scope of this project will be needed in order to determine the viability of a data-driven model.« less

Towards predictive data-driven simulations of wildfire spread - Part I: Reduced-cost Ensemble Kalman Filter based on a Polynomial Chaos surrogate model for parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rochoux, M. C.; Ricci, S.; Lucor, D.; Cuenot, B.; Trouvé, A.

2014-11-01

This paper is the first part in a series of two articles and presents a data-driven wildfire simulator for forecasting wildfire spread scenarios, at a reduced computational cost that is consistent with operational systems. The prototype simulator features the following components: an Eulerian front propagation solver FIREFLY that adopts a regional-scale modeling viewpoint, treats wildfires as surface propagating fronts, and uses a description of the local rate of fire spread (ROS) as a function of environmental conditions based on Rothermel's model; a series of airborne-like observations of the fire front positions; and a data assimilation (DA) algorithm based on an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for parameter estimation. This stochastic algorithm partly accounts for the nonlinearities between the input parameters of the semi-empirical ROS model and the fire front position, and is sequentially applied to provide a spatially uniform correction to wind and biomass fuel parameters as observations become available. A wildfire spread simulator combined with an ensemble-based DA algorithm is therefore a promising approach to reduce uncertainties in the forecast position of the fire front and to introduce a paradigm-shift in the wildfire emergency response. In order to reduce the computational cost of the EnKF algorithm, a surrogate model based on a polynomial chaos (PC) expansion is used in place of the forward model FIREFLY in the resulting hybrid PC-EnKF algorithm. The performance of EnKF and PC-EnKF is assessed on synthetically generated simple configurations of fire spread to provide valuable information and insight on the benefits of the PC-EnKF approach, as well as on a controlled grassland fire experiment. The results indicate that the proposed PC-EnKF algorithm features similar performance to the standard EnKF algorithm, but at a much reduced computational cost. In particular, the re-analysis and forecast skills of DA strongly relate to the spatial and temporal variability of the errors in the ROS model parameters.

MO-G-304-01: FEATURED PRESENTATION: Expanding the Knowledge Base for Data-Driven Treatment Planning: Incorporating Patient Outcome Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robertson, SP; Quon, H; Cheng, Z

2015-06-15

Purpose: To extend the capabilities of knowledge-based treatment planning beyond simple dose queries by incorporating validated patient outcome models. Methods: From an analytic, relational database of 684 head and neck cancer patients, 372 patients were identified having dose data for both left and right parotid glands as well as baseline and follow-up xerostomia assessments. For each existing patient, knowledge-based treatment planning was simulated for by querying the dose-volume histograms and geometric shape relationships (overlap volume histograms) for all other patients. Dose predictions were captured at normalized volume thresholds (NVT) of 0%, 10%, 20, 30%, 40%, 50%, and 85% and weremore » compared with the actual achieved doses using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Next, a logistic regression model was used to predict the maximum severity of xerostomia up to three months following radiotherapy. Baseline xerostomia scores were subtracted from follow-up assessments and were also included in the model. The relative risks from predicted doses and actual doses were computed and compared. Results: The predicted doses for both parotid glands were significantly less than the achieved doses (p < 0.0001), with differences ranging from 830 cGy ± 1270 cGy (0% NVT) to 1673 cGy ± 1197 cGy (30% NVT). The modelled risk of xerostomia ranged from 54% to 64% for achieved doses and from 33% to 51% for the dose predictions. Relative risks varied from 1.24 to 1.87, with maximum relative risk occurring at 85% NVT. Conclusions: Data-driven generation of treatment planning objectives without consideration of the underlying normal tissue complication probability may Result in inferior plans, even if quality metrics indicate otherwise. Inclusion of complication models in knowledge-based treatment planning is necessary in order to close the feedback loop between radiotherapy treatments and patient outcomes. Future work includes advancing and validating complication models in the context of knowledge-based treatment planning. This work is supported by Philips Radiation Oncology Systems.« less

Evaluating data distribution and drift vulnerabilities of machine learning algorithms in secure and adversarial environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, Kevin; Corbin, George; Blowers, Misty

2014-05-01

Machine learning is continuing to gain popularity due to its ability to solve problems that are difficult to model using conventional computer programming logic. Much of the current and past work has focused on algorithm development, data processing, and optimization. Lately, a subset of research has emerged which explores issues related to security. This research is gaining traction as systems employing these methods are being applied to both secure and adversarial environments. One of machine learning's biggest benefits, its data-driven versus logic-driven approach, is also a weakness if the data on which the models rely are corrupted. Adversaries could maliciously influence systems which address drift and data distribution changes using re-training and online learning. Our work is focused on exploring the resilience of various machine learning algorithms to these data-driven attacks. In this paper, we present our initial findings using Monte Carlo simulations, and statistical analysis, to explore the maximal achievable shift to a classification model, as well as the required amount of control over the data.

Data-Driven Instructional Leadership

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blink, Rebecca

2006-01-01

With real-world examples from actual schools, this book illustrates how to nurture a culture of continuous improvement, meet the needs of individual students, foster an environment of high expectations, and meet the requirements of NCLB. Each component of the Data-Driven Instructional Leadership (DDIS) model represents several branches of…

Inter-subject phase synchronization for exploratory analysis of task-fMRI.

PubMed

Bolt, Taylor; Nomi, Jason S; Vij, Shruti G; Chang, Catie; Uddin, Lucina Q

2018-08-01

Analysis of task-based fMRI data is conventionally carried out using a hypothesis-driven approach, where blood-oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) time courses are correlated with a hypothesized temporal structure. In some experimental designs, this temporal structure can be difficult to define. In other cases, experimenters may wish to take a more exploratory, data-driven approach to detecting task-driven BOLD activity. In this study, we demonstrate the efficiency and power of an inter-subject synchronization approach for exploratory analysis of task-based fMRI data. Combining the tools of instantaneous phase synchronization and independent component analysis, we characterize whole-brain task-driven responses in terms of group-wise similarity in temporal signal dynamics of brain networks. We applied this framework to fMRI data collected during performance of a simple motor task and a social cognitive task. Analyses using an inter-subject phase synchronization approach revealed a large number of brain networks that dynamically synchronized to various features of the task, often not predicted by the hypothesized temporal structure of the task. We suggest that this methodological framework, along with readily available tools in the fMRI community, provides a powerful exploratory, data-driven approach for analysis of task-driven BOLD activity. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Features of Cross-Correlation Analysis in a Data-Driven Approach for Structural Damage Assessment

PubMed Central

Camacho Navarro, Jhonatan; Ruiz, Magda; Villamizar, Rodolfo; Mujica, Luis

2018-01-01

This work discusses the advantage of using cross-correlation analysis in a data-driven approach based on principal component analysis (PCA) and piezodiagnostics to obtain successful diagnosis of events in structural health monitoring (SHM). In this sense, the identification of noisy data and outliers, as well as the management of data cleansing stages can be facilitated through the implementation of a preprocessing stage based on cross-correlation functions. Additionally, this work evidences an improvement in damage detection when the cross-correlation is included as part of the whole damage assessment approach. The proposed methodology is validated by processing data measurements from piezoelectric devices (PZT), which are used in a piezodiagnostics approach based on PCA and baseline modeling. Thus, the influence of cross-correlation analysis used in the preprocessing stage is evaluated for damage detection by means of statistical plots and self-organizing maps. Three laboratory specimens were used as test structures in order to demonstrate the validity of the methodology: (i) a carbon steel pipe section with leak and mass damage types, (ii) an aircraft wing specimen, and (iii) a blade of a commercial aircraft turbine, where damages are specified as mass-added. As the main concluding remark, the suitability of cross-correlation features combined with a PCA-based piezodiagnostic approach in order to achieve a more robust damage assessment algorithm is verified for SHM tasks. PMID:29762505

Features of Cross-Correlation Analysis in a Data-Driven Approach for Structural Damage Assessment.

PubMed

Camacho Navarro, Jhonatan; Ruiz, Magda; Villamizar, Rodolfo; Mujica, Luis; Quiroga, Jabid

2018-05-15

This work discusses the advantage of using cross-correlation analysis in a data-driven approach based on principal component analysis (PCA) and piezodiagnostics to obtain successful diagnosis of events in structural health monitoring (SHM). In this sense, the identification of noisy data and outliers, as well as the management of data cleansing stages can be facilitated through the implementation of a preprocessing stage based on cross-correlation functions. Additionally, this work evidences an improvement in damage detection when the cross-correlation is included as part of the whole damage assessment approach. The proposed methodology is validated by processing data measurements from piezoelectric devices (PZT), which are used in a piezodiagnostics approach based on PCA and baseline modeling. Thus, the influence of cross-correlation analysis used in the preprocessing stage is evaluated for damage detection by means of statistical plots and self-organizing maps. Three laboratory specimens were used as test structures in order to demonstrate the validity of the methodology: (i) a carbon steel pipe section with leak and mass damage types, (ii) an aircraft wing specimen, and (iii) a blade of a commercial aircraft turbine, where damages are specified as mass-added. As the main concluding remark, the suitability of cross-correlation features combined with a PCA-based piezodiagnostic approach in order to achieve a more robust damage assessment algorithm is verified for SHM tasks.