Debris supply to mountain glaciers and how it effects their sensitivity to climate change - A case study from the Chhota Shigri Glacier, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherler, D.; Egholm, D. L.

2017-12-01

Debris-covered glaciers are widespread in the Himalaya and other steep mountain ranges. They testify to active erosion of ice-free bedrock hillslopes that tower above valley glaciers, sometimes more than a kilometer high. It is well known that supraglacial debris cover significantly reduces surface ablation rates and thereby influences glacial mass balances and runoff. However, the dynamic evolution of debris cover along with climatic and topographic changes is poorly understood. Here, we present ice-free hillslope erosion rates derived from 10Be concentrations in the ablation-dominated medial moraine of the Chhota Shigri Glacier, Indian Himalaya. We combine our empirical, field-based approach with a numerical model of frost-related sediment production and glacial debris transport to (1) assess patterns of ice-free hillslope erosion that are permissible with observed patterns of debris cover, and (2) explore the coupled response of glaciers and ice-free hillslopes to climatic changes. Measured 10Be concentrations increase downglacier from 3×104 to 6×104 atoms (g quartz) -1, yielding hillslope erosion rates of 1.3-0.6 mm yr-1. The accumulation of 10Be during debris residence on the ice surface can only account for a small fraction (<20%) of the downglacier increase. Other potential explanations include (1) heterogeneous source areas with different average productions rates, and (2) homogeneous source areas but temporally variable erosion rates. We used the 10Be-derived hillslope erosion rates to define debris supply rates from ice-free bedrock hillslopes in the numerical ice and landscape evolution model iSOSIA. Based on available mass balance and ice thickness data, the calibrated model reproduces the medial moraine of the Chhota Shogri Glacier quite well, although uncertainties exist due to the transient disequilibrium of the glacier, i.e., the current debris cover was fed into the glacier during the Little Ice Age (LIA), and thus under different boundary conditions. We currently perform transient experiments during warming and cooling periods for testing models of frost-related and temperature-sensitive debris production, and for assessing the coupled sensitivity of hillslopes and glaciers to climate change.

Millimeter Studies of Nearby Debris Disks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacGregor, Meredith Ann

2017-03-01

At least 20% of nearby main sequence stars are known to be surrounded by disks of dusty material resulting from the collisional erosion of planetesimals, similar to asteroids and comets in our own Solar System. The material in these ‘debris disks’ is directly linked to the larger bodies, like planets, in the system through collisions and gravitational perturbations. Observations at millimeter wavelengths are especially critical to our understanding of these systems, since the large grains that dominate emission at these long wavelengths reliably trace the underlying planetesimal distribution. In this thesis, I have used state-of-the-art observations at millimeter wavelengths to address three related questions concerning debris disks and planetary system evolution: 1) How are wide-separation, substellar companions formed? 2) What is the physical nature of the collisional process in debris disks? And, 3) Can the structure and morphology of debris disks provide probes of planet formation and subsequent dynamical evolution? Using ALMA observations of GQ Lup, a pre-main sequence system with a wide-separation, substellar companion, I have placed constraints on the mass of a circumplanetary disk around the companion, informing formation scenarios for this and other similar systems (Chapter 2). I obtained observations of a sample of fifteen debris disks with both the VLA and ATCA at centimeter wavelengths, and robustly determined the millimeter spectral index of each disk and thus the slope of the grain size distribution, providing the first observational test of collision models of debris disks (Chapter 3). By applying an MCMC modeling framework to resolved millimeter observations with ALMA and SMA, I have placed the first constraints on the position, width, surface density gradient, and any asymmetric structure of the AU Mic, HD 15115, Epsilon Eridani, Tau Ceti, and Fomalhaut debris disks (Chapters 4–8). These observations of individual systems hint at trends in disk structure and dynamics, which can be explored further with a comparative study of a sample of the eight brightest debris disks around Sun-like stars within 20 pc (Chapter 9). This body of work has yielded the first resolved images of notable debris disks at millimeter wavelengths, and complements other ground- and space-based observations by providing constraints on these systems with uniquely high angular resolution and wavelength coverage. Together these results provide a foundation to investigate the dynamical evolution of planetary systems through multi-wavelength observations of debris disks.

Active Debris Removal Using Modified Launch Vehicle Upper Stages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasseri, S. Ali; Emanuelli, Matteo; Raval, Siddharth; Turconi, Andrea

2013-09-01

During the past few years, several research programs have assessed the current state and future evolution of space debris in the Low Earth Orbit region. These studies indicate that space debris density could reach a critical level such that there will be a continuous increase in the number of debris objects, primarily driven by debris-debris collision activity known as the Kessler effect. These studies also highlight the urgency for active debris removal.An Active Debris Removal System (ADRS) is capable of approaching the debris object through a close-range rendezvous, stabilizing its attitude, establishing physical contact, and finally de-orbiting the debris object. The de-orbiting phase could be powered by propulsion systems such as chemical rockets or electrodynamic tether (EDT) systems.The aim of this project is to model and evaluate a debris removal mission in which an adapted rocket upper stage, equipped with an electrodynamic tether (EDT) system, is employed for de-orbiting a debris object. This ADRS package is installed initially as part of a launch vehicle on a normal satellite deployment mission, and a far-approach manoeuvre will be required to align the ADRS' orbit with that of the target debris. We begin by selecting a suitable target debris and launch vehicle, and then proceed with modelling the entire debris removal mission from launch to de-orbiting of the target debris object using Analytical Graphic Inc.'s Systems Tool Kit (STK).

What controls the survival of ice cliffs on debris-covered glaciers? An investigation into the aspect-dependent evolution of supraglacial cliffs in the Nepalese Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellicciotti, F.; Buri, P.

2017-12-01

Supraglacial ice cliffs exist on debris-covered glaciers worldwide, but despite increasing evidence of their important role in the surface melt of debris-covered glaciers, their role and importance at the glacier scale is still little understood. Acting as windows of energy transfer through the debris, they can contribute to very large glacier mass losses. Their abundance and life cycle might thus explain the anomalous behavior of much higher than expected mass losses of the debris-covered glaciers of High Mountain Asia, a controversial finding of recent research in a region where glaciers are highly relevant as water sources for millions of people downstream. Cliffs' evolution in time and distribution in space will determine their total contribution to the mass balance of glaciers, but while spatial distribution has been recently inferred from remote sensing studies, their temporal evolution is largely unknown. Here, we make use of recent advancements in our ability to model these complex features and use a novel 3D numerical model of cliff backwasting and very high resolution topographic data to show that supraglacial ice cliffs existence is controlled by aspect. Because of lack of observed south-facing cliffs, we rotate north-facing cliff systems observed in high detail over the debris-covered Lirung glacier, in the Nepalese Himalaya, towards southerly aspects and use the model coupled to the very high resolution topography to simulate the continuous evolution of selected cliffs over one melt season. Cliffs facing south (in the Northern Hemisphere) do not survive the duration of an ablation season and disappear within few weeks to few months due to very strong solar radiation receipts. Our model shows a progressive, continuous flattening of southerly facing cliffs, which is a result of their vertical gradient of incoming solar radiation. We also show that there is a clear range of aspects (northwest to northeast) that allows cliff survival because of energy and radiative fluxes, while cliffs in the range east to southeast will decline and be reburied within one melt season. We suggest that aspect is the first-order-control of cliff persistence, and that south-facing cliffs do not contribute to the assumed high glacier mass losses.

A depth-averaged debris-flow model that includes the effects of evolving dilatancy. I. physical basis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iverson, Richard M.; George, David L.

2014-01-01

To simulate debris-flow behaviour from initiation to deposition, we derive a depth-averaged, two-phase model that combines concepts of critical-state soil mechanics, grain-flow mechanics and fluid mechanics. The model's balance equations describe coupled evolution of the solid volume fraction, m, basal pore-fluid pressure, flow thickness and two components of flow velocity. Basal friction is evaluated using a generalized Coulomb rule, and fluid motion is evaluated in a frame of reference that translates with the velocity of the granular phase, vs. Source terms in each of the depth-averaged balance equations account for the influence of the granular dilation rate, defined as the depth integral of ∇⋅vs. Calculation of the dilation rate involves the effects of an elastic compressibility and an inelastic dilatancy angle proportional to m−meq, where meq is the value of m in equilibrium with the ambient stress state and flow rate. Normalization of the model equations shows that predicted debris-flow behaviour depends principally on the initial value of m−meq and on the ratio of two fundamental timescales. One of these timescales governs downslope debris-flow motion, and the other governs pore-pressure relaxation that modifies Coulomb friction and regulates evolution of m. A companion paper presents a suite of model predictions and tests.

Modelling the feedbacks between mass balance, ice flow and debris transport to predict the response to climate change of debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowan, Ann V.; Egholm, David L.; Quincey, Duncan J.; Glasser, Neil F.

2015-11-01

Many Himalayan glaciers are characterised in their lower reaches by a rock debris layer. This debris insulates the glacier surface from atmospheric warming and complicates the response to climate change compared to glaciers with clean-ice surfaces. Debris-covered glaciers can persist well below the altitude that would be sustainable for clean-ice glaciers, resulting in much longer timescales of mass loss and meltwater production. The properties and evolution of supraglacial debris present a considerable challenge to understanding future glacier change. Existing approaches to predicting variations in glacier volume and meltwater production rely on numerical models that represent the processes governing glaciers with clean-ice surfaces, and yield conflicting results. We developed a numerical model that couples the flow of ice and debris and includes important feedbacks between debris accumulation and glacier mass balance. To investigate the impact of debris transport on the response of a glacier to recent and future climate change, we applied this model to a large debris-covered Himalayan glacier-Khumbu Glacier in Nepal. Our results demonstrate that supraglacial debris prolongs the response of the glacier to warming and causes lowering of the glacier surface in situ, concealing the magnitude of mass loss when compared with estimates based on glacierised area. Since the Little Ice Age, Khumbu Glacier has lost 34% of its volume while its area has reduced by only 6%. We predict a decrease in glacier volume of 8-10% by AD2100, accompanied by dynamic and physical detachment of the debris-covered tongue from the active glacier within the next 150 yr. This detachment will accelerate rates of glacier decay, and similar changes are likely for other debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya.

Dust evolution from comets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sekanina, Z.

1976-01-01

The studies of the evolution of cometary debris are reviewed. The subject is divided into three major sections: (1) the developments in the immediate vicinity of the cometary nucleus, which is the source of the dust; (2) the formation of the dust tail; and (3) the blending of the debris with the dust component of interplanetary matter. The importance of the physical theory of comets is emphasized for the understanding of the early phase of evolution. A physico-dynamical model designed to analyze the particle-emission mechanism from the distribution of light in the dust tail is described and the results are presented. Increased attention is paid to large particles because of their importance for the evolution of the zodiacal cloud. Finally, implications are discussed for the future in situ investigations of comets.

Dust evolution from comets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sekanina, Z.

1977-01-01

The studies of the evolution of cometary debris are reviewed. The subject is divided into three major sections: (1) the developments in the immediate vicinity of the cometary nucleus, which is the source of the dust; (2) the formation of the dust tail; and (3) the blending of the debris with the dust component of interplanetary matter. The importance of the physical theory of comets is emphasized for the understanding of the early phase of the evolution of cometary dust. A physico-dynamical model designed to analyze the particle-emission mechanism from the distribution of light in the dust tails is described and the results are presented. Increased attention is paid to large particles because of their importance for the evolution of the zodiacal cloud. Finally, implications are discussed for the future in situ investigations of comets.

Comparing long-term projections of the space debris environment to real world data - Looking back to 1990

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radtke, Jonas; Stoll, Enrico

2016-10-01

Long-term projections of the space debris environment are commonly used to assess the trends within different scenarios for the assumed future development of spacefaring. General scenarios investigated include business-as-usual cases in which spaceflight is performed as today and mitigation scenarios, assuming the implementation of Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines at different advances or the effectiveness of more drastic measures, such as active debris removal. One problem that always goes along with the projection of a system's behaviour in the future is that affecting parameters, such as the launch rate, are unpredictable. It is common to look backwards and re-model the past in other fields of research. This is a rather difficult task for spaceflight as it is still quite young, and furthermore mostly influenced by drastic politic changes, as the break-down of the Soviet Union in the end of the 1980s. Furthermore, one major driver of the evolution of the number of on-orbit objects turn out to be collisions between objects. As of today, these collisions are, fortunately, very rare and therefore, a real-world-data modelling approach is difficult. Nevertheless, since the end of the cold war more than 20 years of a comparably stable evolution of spaceflight activities have passed. For this study, this period is used in a comparison between the real evolution of the space debris environment and that one projected using the Institute of Space System's in-house tool for long-term assessment LUCA (Long-Term Utility for Collision Analysis). Four different scenarios are investigated in this comparison; all of them have the common starting point of using an initial population for 1st May 1989. The first scenario, which serves as reference, is simply taken from MASTER-2009. All launch and mission related objects from the Two Line Elements (TLE) catalogue and other available sources are included. All events such as explosion and collision events have been re-modelled as close to the reality as possible and included in the corresponding population. They furthermore have been correlated with TLE catalogue objects. As the latest available validated population snapshot for MASTER is May 2009, this epoch is chosen as endpoint for the simulations. The second scenario uses the knowledge of the past 25 years to perform a Monte-Carlo simulation of the evolution of the space debris environment. Necessary input parameters such as explosions per year, launch rates, and the evolution of the solar cycle are taken from their real evolutions. The third scenario goes a step further by only extracting mean numbers and trends from inputs such as launch and explosion rates and applying them. The final and fourth scenario aims to disregarding all knowledge of the time frame under investigation and inputs are determined based on data available in 1989 only. Results are compared to the reference scenario of the space debris environment.

Design of orbital debris shields for oblique hypervelocity impact

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fahrenthold, Eric P.

1994-01-01

A new impact debris propagation code was written to link CTH simulations of space debris shield perforation to the Lagrangian finite element code DYNA3D, for space structure wall impact simulations. This software (DC3D) simulates debris cloud evolution using a nonlinear elastic-plastic deformable particle dynamics model, and renders computationally tractable the supercomputer simulation of oblique impacts on Whipple shield protected structures. Comparison of three dimensional, oblique impact simulations with experimental data shows good agreement over a range of velocities of interest in the design of orbital debris shielding. Source code developed during this research is provided on the enclosed floppy disk. An abstract based on the work described was submitted to the 1994 Hypervelocity Impact Symposium.

Impact of planet-planet scattering on the formation and survival of debris discs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzari, F.

2014-10-01

Planet-planet scattering is a major dynamical mechanism able to significantly alter the architecture of a planetary system. In addition to that, it may also affect the formation and retention of a debris disc by the system. A violent chaotic evolution of the planets can easily clear leftover planetesimal belts preventing the ignition of a substantial collisional cascade that can give origin to a debris disc. On the other end, a mild evolution with limited steps in eccentricity and semimajor axis can trigger the formation of a debris disc by stirring an initially quiet planetesimal belt. The variety of possible effects that planet-planet scattering can have on the formation of debris discs is analysed and the statistical probability of the different outcomes is evaluated. This leads to the prediction that systems which underwent an episode of chaotic evolution might have a lower probability of harbouring a debris disc.

Erosion of steepland valleys by debris flows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stock, J.D.; Dietrich, W.E.

2006-01-01

Episodic debris flows scour the rock beds of many steepland valleys. Along recent debris-flow runout paths in the western United States, we have observed evidence for bedrock lowering, primarily by the impact of large particles entrained in debris flows. This evidence may persist to the point at which debris-flow deposition occurs, commonly at slopes of less than ???0.03-0.10. We find that debris-flow-scoured valleys have a topographic signature that is fundamentally different from that predicted by bedrock river-incision models. Much of this difference results from the fact that local valley slope shows a tendency to decrease abruptly downstream of tributaries that contribute throughgoing debris flows. The degree of weathering of valley floor bedrock may also decrease abruptly downstream of such junctions. On the basis of these observations, we hypothesize that valley slope is adjusted to the long-term frequency of debris flows, and that valleys scoured by debris flows should not be modeled using conventional bedrock river-incision laws. We use field observations to justify one possible debris-flow incision model, whose lowering rate is proportional to the integral of solid inertial normal stresses from particle impacts along the flow and the number of upvalley debris-flow sources. The model predicts that increases in incision rate caused by increases in flow event frequency and length (as flows gain material) downvalley are balanced by rate reductions from reduced inertial normal stress at lower slopes, and stronger, less weathered bedrock. These adjustments lead to a spatially uniform lowering rate. Although the proposed expression leads to equilibrium long-profiles with the correct topographic signature, the crudeness with which the debris-flow dynamics are parameterized reveals that we are far from a validated debris-flow incision law. However, the vast extent of steepland valley networks above slopes of ???0.03-0.10 illustrates the need to understand debris-flow incision if we hope to understand the evolution of steep topography around the world. ?? 2006 Geological Society of America.

Collision frequency of artificial satellites - The creation of a debris belt

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kessler, D. J.; Cour-Palais, B. G.

1978-01-01

The probability of satellite collisions increases with the number of satellites. In the present paper, possible time scales for the growth of a debris belt from collision fragments are determined, and possible consequences of continued unrestrained launch activities are examined. Use is made of techniques formerly developed for studying the evolution (growth) of the asteroid belt. A model describing the flux from the known earth-orbiting satellites is developed, and the results from this model are extrapolated in time to predict the collision frequency between satellites. Hypervelocity impact phenomena are then examined to predict the debris flux resulting from collisions. The results are applied to design requirements for three types of future space missions.

Coupling continuous damage and debris fragmentation for energy absorption prediction by cfrp structures during crushing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espinosa, Christine; Lachaud, Frédéric; Limido, Jérome; Lacome, Jean-Luc; Bisson, Antoine; Charlotte, Miguel

2015-05-01

Energy absorption during crushing is evaluated using a thermodynamic based continuum damage model inspired from the Matzenmiller-Lubliner-Taylors model. It was found that for crash-worthiness applications, it is necessary to couple the progressive ruin of the material to a representation of the matter openings and debris generation. Element kill technique (erosion) and/or cohesive elements are efficient but not predictive. A technique switching finite elements into discrete particles at rupture is used to create debris and accumulated mater during the crushing of the structure. Switching criteria are evaluated using the contribution of the different ruin modes in the damage evolution, energy absorption, and reaction force generation.

A depth-averaged debris-flow model that includes the effects of evolving dilatancy: II. Numerical predictions and experimental tests.

USGS Publications Warehouse

George, David L.; Iverson, Richard M.

2014-01-01

We evaluate a new depth-averaged mathematical model that is designed to simulate all stages of debris-flow motion, from initiation to deposition. A companion paper shows how the model’s five governing equations describe simultaneous evolution of flow thickness, solid volume fraction, basal pore-fluid pressure, and two components of flow momentum. Each equation contains a source term that represents the influence of state-dependent granular dilatancy. Here we recapitulate the equations and analyze their eigenstructure to show that they form a hyperbolic system with desirable stability properties. To solve the equations we use a shock-capturing numerical scheme with adaptive mesh refinement, implemented in an open-source software package we call D-Claw. As tests of D-Claw, we compare model output with results from two sets of large-scale debris-flow experiments. One set focuses on flow initiation from landslides triggered by rising pore-water pressures, and the other focuses on downstream flow dynamics, runout, and deposition. D-Claw performs well in predicting evolution of flow speeds, thicknesses, and basal pore-fluid pressures measured in each type of experiment. Computational results illustrate the critical role of dilatancy in linking coevolution of the solid volume fraction and pore-fluid pressure, which mediates basal Coulomb friction and thereby regulates debris-flow dynamics.

Reduced melt on debris-covered glaciers: investigations from Changri Nup Glacier, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagnon, Patrick; Vincent, Christian; Shea, Joseph M.; Immerzeel, Walter W.; Kraaijenbrink, Philip; Shrestha, Dibas; Soruco, Alvaro; Arnaud, Yves; Brun, Fanny; Berthier, Etienne; Futi Sherpa, Sonam

2017-04-01

Approximately 25% of the glacierized area in the Everest region is covered by debris, yet the surface mass balance of debris-covered portions of these glaciers has not been measured directly. In this study, ground-based measurements of surface elevation and ice depth are combined with terrestrial photogrammetry, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and satellite elevation models to derive the surface mass balance of the debris-covered tongue of Changri Nup Glacier, located in the Everest region. Over the debris-covered tongue, the mean elevation change between 2011 and 2015 is -0.93 m year-1 or -0.84 m water equivalent per year (w.e. a-1). The mean emergence velocity over this region, estimated from the total ice flux through a cross section immediately above the debris-covered zone, is +0.37mw.e. a-1. The debris-covered portion of the glacier thus has an area averaged mass balance of -1.21+/-0.2mw.e. a-1 between 5240 and 5525 m above sea level (m a.s.l.). Surface mass balances observed on nearby debris-free glaciers suggest that the ablation is strongly reduced (by ca. 1.8mw.e. a-1) by the debris cover. The insulating effect of the debris cover has a larger effect on total mass loss than the enhanced ice ablation due to supraglacial ponds and exposed ice cliffs. This finding contradicts earlier geodetic studies and should be considered for modelling the future evolution of debris-covered glaciers.

An adaptive strategy for active debris removal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, Adam E.; Lewis, Hugh G.

2014-04-01

Many parameters influence the evolution of the near-Earth debris population, including launch, solar, explosion and mitigation activities, as well as other future uncertainties such as advances in space technology or changes in social and economic drivers that effect the utilisation of space activities. These factors lead to uncertainty in the long-term debris population. This uncertainty makes it difficult to identify potential remediation strategies, involving active debris removal (ADR), that will perform effectively in all possible future cases. Strategies that cannot perform effectively, because of this uncertainty, risk either not achieving their intended purpose, or becoming a hindrance to the efforts of spacecraft manufactures and operators to address the challenges posed by space debris. One method to tackle this uncertainty is to create a strategy that can adapt and respond to the space debris population. This work explores the concept of an adaptive strategy, in terms of the number of objects required to be removed by ADR, to prevent the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris population from growing in size. This was demonstrated by utilising the University of Southampton’s Debris Analysis and Monitoring Architecture to the Geosynchronous Environment (DAMAGE) tool to investigate ADR rates (number of removals per year) that change over time in response to the current space environment, with the requirement of achieving zero growth of the LEO population. DAMAGE was used to generate multiple Monte Carlo projections of the future LEO debris environment. Within each future projection, the debris removal rate was derived at five-year intervals, by a new statistical debris evolutionary model called the Computational Adaptive Strategy to Control Accurately the Debris Environment (CASCADE) model. CASCADE predicted the long-term evolution of the current DAMAGE population with a variety of different ADR rates in order to identify a removal rate that produced a zero net growth for that particular projection after 200 years. The results show that using an adaptive ADR rate generated by CASCADE, alongside good compliance with existing mitigation measures, increases the probability of achieving a constant LEO population of objects greater than 10 cm. This was shown to be 12% greater compared with removing five objects per year, with the additional advantage of requiring only 3.1 removals per year, on average.

Comparison of Orbital Parameters for GEO Debris Predicted by LEGEND and Observed by MODEST: Can Sources of Orbital Debris be Identified?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barker, Edwin S.; Matney, M. J.; Liou, J.-C.; Abercromby, K. J.; Rodriquez, H. M.; Seitzer, P.

2006-01-01

Since 2002 the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has carried out an optical survey of the debris environment in the geosynchronous Earth-orbit (GEO) region with the Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) in Chile. The survey coverage has been similar for 4 of the 5 years allowing us to follow the orbital evolution of Correlated Targets (CTs), both controlled and un-controlled objects, and Un-Correlated Targets (UCTs). Under gravitational perturbations the distributions of uncontrolled objects, both CTs and UCTs, in GEO orbits will evolve in predictable patterns, particularly evident in the inclination and right ascension of the ascending node (RAAN) distributions. There are several clusters (others have used a "cloud" nomenclature) in observed distributions that show evolution from year to year in their inclination and ascending node elements. However, when MODEST is in survey mode (field-of-view approx.1.3deg) it provides only short 5-8 minute orbital arcs which can only be fit under the assumption of a circular orbit approximation (ACO) to determine the orbital parameters. These ACO elements are useful only in a statistical sense as dedicated observing runs would be required to obtain sufficient orbital coverage to determine a set of accurate orbital elements and then to follow their evolution. Identification of the source(s) for these "clusters of UCTs" would be advantageous to the overall definition of the GEO orbital debris environment. This paper will set out to determine if the ACO elements can be used to in a statistical sense to identify the source of the "clustering of UCTs" roughly centered on an inclination of 12deg and a RAAN of 345deg. The breakup of the Titan 3C-4 transtage on February 21, 1992 has been modeled using NASA s LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris) code to generate a GEO debris cloud. Breakup fragments are created based on the NASA Standard Breakup Model (including fragment size, area-to-mass (A/M), and delta-V distributions). Once fragments are created, they are propagated forward in time with a subroutine GEOPROP. Perturbations included in GEOPROP are those due to solar/lunar gravity, radiation pressure, and major geopotential terms. The question to be addressed: are the UCTs detected by MODEST in this inclination/RAAN region related to the Titan 3C-4 breakup? Discussion will include the observational biases in attempting to detect a specific, uncontrolled target during given observing session. These restrictions include: (1) the length of the observing session which is 8 hours or less at any given date or declination; (2) the assumption of ACO elements for detected object when the breakup model predicts debris with non-zero eccentricities; (3) the size and illumination or brightness of the debris predicted by the model and the telescope/sky limiting magnitude.

Predicting sediment delivery from debris flows after wildfire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyman, Petter; Smith, Hugh G.; Sherwin, Christopher B.; Langhans, Christoph; Lane, Patrick N. J.; Sheridan, Gary J.

2015-12-01

Debris flows are an important erosion process in wildfire-prone landscapes. Predicting their frequency and magnitude can therefore be critical for quantifying risk to infrastructure, people and water resources. However, the factors contributing to the frequency and magnitude of events remain poorly understood, particularly in regions outside western USA. Against this background, the objectives of this study were to i) quantify sediment yields from post-fire debris flows in southeast Australian highlands and ii) model the effects of landscape attributes on debris flow susceptibility. Sediment yields from post-fire debris flows (113-294 t ha- 1) are 2-3 orders of magnitude higher than annual background erosion rates from undisturbed forests. Debris flow volumes ranged from 539 to 33,040 m3 with hillslope contributions of 18-62%. The distribution of erosion and deposition above the fan were related to a stream power index, which could be used to model changes in yield along the drainage network. Debris flow susceptibility was quantified with a logistic regression and an inventory of 315 debris flow fans deposited in the first year after two large wildfires (total burned area = 2919 km2). The differenced normalised burn ratio (dNBR or burn severity), local slope, radiative index of dryness (AI) and rainfall intensity (from rainfall radar) were significant predictors in a susceptibility model, which produced excellent results in terms identifying channels that were eroded by debris flows (Area Under Curve, AUC = 0.91). Burn severity was the strongest predictor in the model (AUC = 0.87 when dNBR is used as single predictor) suggesting that fire regimes are an important control on sediment delivery from these forests. The analysis showed a positive effect of AI on debris flow probability in landscapes where differences in moisture regimes due to climate are associated with large variation in soil hydraulic properties. Overall, the results from this study based in the southeast Australian highlands provide a novel basis upon which to model sediment delivery from post-fire debris flows. The modelling approach has wider relevance to post-fire debris flow prediction both from risk management and landscape evolution perspectives.

Stellar nucleosynthesis and chemical evolution of the solar neighborhood

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clayton, Donald D.

1988-01-01

Current theoretical models of nucleosynthesis (N) in stars are reviewed, with an emphasis on their implications for Galactic chemical evolution. Topics addressed include the Galactic population II red giants and early N; N in the big bang; star formation, stellar evolution, and the ejection of thermonuclearly evolved debris; the chemical evolution of an idealized disk galaxy; analytical solutions for a closed-box model with continuous infall; and nuclear burning processes and yields. Consideration is given to shell N in massive stars, N related to degenerate cores, and the types of observational data used to constrain N models. Extensive diagrams, graphs, and tables of numerical data are provided.

Global Modeling of Uranium Molecular Species Formation Using Laser-Ablated Plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curreli, Davide; Finko, Mikhail; Azer, Magdi; Armstrong, Mike; Crowhurst, Jonathan; Radousky, Harry; Rose, Timothy; Stavrou, Elissaios; Weisz, David; Zaug, Joseph

2016-10-01

Uranium is chemically fractionated from other refractory elements in post-detonation nuclear debris but the mechanism is poorly understood. Fractionation alters the chemistry of the nuclear debris so that it no longer reflects the chemistry of the source weapon. The conditions of a condensing fireball can be simulated by a low-temperature plasma formed by vaporizing a uranium sample via laser heating. We have developed a global plasma kinetic model in order to model the chemical evolution of U/UOx species within an ablated plasma plume. The model allows to track the time evolution of the density and energy of an uranium plasma plume moving through an oxygen atmosphere of given fugacity, as well as other relevant quantities such as average electron and gas temperature. Comparison of model predictions with absorption spectroscopy of uranium-ablated plasmas provide preliminary insights on the key chemical species and evolution pathways involved during the fractionation process. This project was sponsored by the DoD, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, Grant HDTRA1-16-1-0020. This work was performed in part under the auspices of the U.S. DoE by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Uncovering glacier dynamics beneath a debris mantle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lefeuvre, P.-M.; Ng, F. S. L.

2012-04-01

Debris-covered glaciers (DCGs) have an extensive sediment mantle whose low albedo influences their surface energy balance to cause a buffering effect that could enhance or reduce ablation rates depending on the sediment thickness. The last effect suggests that some DCGs may be less sensitive to climate change and survive for longer than debris-free (or 'clean') glaciers under sustained climatic warming. However, the origin of DCGs is debated and the precise impact of the debris mantle on their flow dynamics and surface geometry has not been quantified. Here we investigate these issues with a numerical model that encapsulates ice-flow physics and surface debris evolution and transport along a glacier flow-line, as well as couples these with glacier mass balance. We model the impact of surface debris on ablation rates by a mathematical function based on published empirical data (including Ostrem's curve). A key interest is potential positive feedback of ablation on debris thickening and lowering of surface albedo. Model simulations show that when DCGs evolve to attain steady-state profiles, they reach lower elevations than clean glaciers do for the same initial and climatic conditions. Their mass-balance profile at steady state displays an inversion near the snout (where the debris cover is thickest) that is not observed in the clean-glacier simulations. In these cases, where the mantle causes complete buffering to inhibit ablation, the DCG does not reach a steady-state profile, and the sediment thickness evolves to a steady value that depends sensitively on the glacier surface velocities. Variation in the assumed englacial debris concentration in our simulations also determines glacier behaviour. With low englacial debris concentration, the DCG retreats initially while its mass-balance gradient steepens, but the glacier re-advances if it subsequently builds up a thick enough debris cover to cause complete buffering. We identify possible ways and challenges of testing this model with field observations of DCGs, given the inherent difficulty that such glaciers may not be in steady state.

Prize of the best thesis 2015: Study of debris discs through state-of-the-art numerical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kral, Q.; Thébault, P.

2015-12-01

This proceeding summarises the thesis entitled ``Study of debris discs with a new generation numerical model'' by Quentin Kral, for which he obtained the prize of the best thesis in 2015. The thesis brought major contributions to the field of debris disc modelling. The main achievement is to have created, almost ex-nihilo, the first truly self-consistent numerical model able to simultaneously follow the coupled collisional and dynamical evolutions of debris discs. Such a code has been thought as being the ``Holy Grail'' of disc modellers for the past decade, and while several codes with partial dynamics/collisions coupling have been presented, the code developed in this thesis, called ``LIDT-DD'' is the first to achieve a full coupling. The LIDT-DD model, which is the first of a new-generation of fully self-consistent debris disc models is able to handle both planetesimals and dust and create new fragments after each collision. The main idea of LIDT-DD development was to merge into one code two approaches that were so far used separately in disc modelling, that is, an N-body algorithm to investigate the dynamics, and a statistical scheme to explore the collisional evolution. This complex scheme is not straightforward to develop as there are major difficulties to overcome: 1) collisions in debris discs are highly destructive and produce clouds of small fragments after each single impact, 2) the smallest (and most numerous) of these fragments have a strongly size-dependent dynamics because of the radiation pressure, and 3) the dust usually observed in discs is precisely these smallest grains. These extreme constraints had so far prevented all previous attempts at developing self-consistent disc models to succeed. The thesis contains many examples of the use of LIDT-DD that are not yet published but the case of the collision between two asteroid-like bodies is studied in detail. In particular, LIDT-DD is able to predict the different stages that should be observed after such massive collisions that happen mainly in the latest stages of planetary formation. Some giant impact signatures and observability predictions for VLT/SPHERE and JWST/MIRI are given. JWST should be able to detect many of such impacts and would enable to see on-going planetary formation in dozens of planetary systems.

Thermal Resistances in the Everest Area derived from Satellite Imagery using a Nonlinear Energy Balance Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rounce, D.; McKinney, D. C.

2013-12-01

Debris cover has a large impact on sub-debris ablation rates and glacier evolution. A thin debris layer may enhance ablation by reducing albedo increasing radiation absorption, while thicker debris insulates the glacier causing ablation to decrease. Debris thickness, thermal conductivity, and meteorological conditions may be measured in the field, but they require extensive fieldwork (Brock et al., 2010; Nicholson and Benn, 2012). This has forced many simplifications and assumptions in models. Satellite imagery combined with an energy balance model has been used with to extract information about debris cover remotely (Nakawo and Rana, 1999; Zhang et al., 2011). The spatial distribution of thermal resistances derived from these studies have agreed well with field values; however, the values were considerably lower than the field values. The difference has been attributed to the mixed pixel effect. Foster et al. (2012) developed an energy balance model that agrees well with debris thickness measured in the field. The model requires knowledge of the thermal conductivity and utilizes a relationship between air and surface temperature to lower sensible heat fluxes. We derive thermal resistances of debris-covered glaciers from satellite imagery in the Everest area. Previous satellite studies have assumed a linear debris temperature gradient, which is valid for time periods of 24 hours or greater (Nicholson and Benn, 2006); however, gradients during the day are nonlinear (Nicholson and Benn, 2006; Reid and Brock, 2010). Landsat 7 imagery is used to account for the non-linear gradient, using the ratio of temperature gradient in the upper 10cm versus the entire debris thickness. These values are derived from temperature profiles on Ngozumpa Glacier (Nicholson, 2004). Meteorological data are obtained from the Pyramid Station. The derived thermal resistances agree well with those found on debris-covered glaciers in the Everest region. Brock, B., Mihalcea, C., Kirkbride, M., Diolaiuti, G., Cutler, M., Smiraglia, C. Meteorology and surface energy fluxes in the 2005-2007 ablation seasons at the Miage debris-covered glacier. J. Geoph. Res., 115, 2010 Foster, L., Brock, B., Cutler, M., Diotri, F. A physically based method for estimating supraglacial debris thickness from thermal band remote-sensing data. J. Glaciol. 58(210):677-691, 2012 Nakawo, M., Rana, B. Estimate of Ablation Rate of Glacier Ice Under a Supraglacial Debris Layer. Geografiska Annaler 81(4):695-701, 1999 Nicholson, L. Modelling melt beneath supraglacial debris: implications for the climatic response of debris-covered glaciers. PhD thesis, Univ. of St Andrews, 2004 Nicholson, L., Benn, D. Calculating ice melt beneath a debris layer using meteorological data. J. Glaciol. 52(178):463-470, 2006 Nicholson, L., Benn, D. Properties of Natural Supraglacial Debris in Relation to Modelling Sub-Debris Ice Ablation. Earth Surf. Proc. and Landforms 38(5):490-501, 2012 Reid, T., Brock, B. An Energy-Balance Model for Debris-Covered Glaciers Including Heat Conduction through the Debris Layer. J. Glaciol. 56(199):903-916, 2010 Zhang, Y., Fujita, K., Liu, S., Liu, Q., Nuimura, T. Distribution of Debris Thickness and its Effect on Ice Melt at Hailuogou Glacier. J. Glaciol. 57(206):1147-1157, 2011

Rapid Evolution of the Gaseous Exoplanetary Debris around the White Dwarf Star HE 1349–2305

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dennihy, E.; Clemens, J. C.; Dunlap, B. H.; Fanale, S. M.; Fuchs, J. T.; Hermes, J. J.

2018-02-01

Observations of heavy metal pollution in white dwarf stars indicate that metal-rich planetesimals are frequently scattered into star-grazing orbits, tidally disrupted, and accreted onto the white dwarf surface, offering direct insight into the dynamical evolution of post-main-sequence exoplanetary systems. Emission lines from the gaseous debris in the accretion disks of some of these systems show variations on timescales of decades, and have been interpreted as the general relativistic precession of a recently formed, elliptical disk. Here we present a comprehensive spectroscopic monitoring campaign of the calcium infrared triplet emission in one system, HE 1349–2305, which shows morphological emission profile variations suggestive of a precessing, asymmetric intensity pattern. The emission profiles are shown to vary on a timescale of one to two years, which is an order of magnitude shorter than what has been observed in other similar systems. We demonstrate that this timescale is likely incompatible with general relativistic precession, and consider alternative explanations for the rapid evolution, including the propagation of density waves within the gaseous debris. We conclude with recommendations for follow-up observations, and discuss how the rapid evolution of the gaseous debris in HE 1349–2305 could be leveraged to test theories of exoplanetary debris disk evolution around white dwarf stars.

The influence of basal-ice debris on patterns and rates of glacial erosion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ugelvig, Sofie V.; Egholm, David L.

2018-05-01

Glaciers have played a key role for shaping much of Earth's high topography during the cold periods of the Late Cenozoic. However, despite of their distinct influence on landscapes, the mechanisms of glacial erosion, and the properties that determine their rate of operation, are still poorly understood. Theoretical models of subglacial erosion generally highlight the influence of basal sliding in setting the pace of erosion, but they also point to a strong influence of other subglacial properties, such as effective bed pressure and basal-ice debris concentration. The latter properties are, however, not easily measured in existing glaciers, and hence their influence cannot readily be confirmed by observations. In order to better connect theoretical models for erosion to measurable properties in glaciers, we used computational landscape evolution experiments to study the expected influence of basal-ice debris concentration for subglacial abrasion at the scale of glaciers. The computational experiments couple the two erosion processes of quarrying and abrasion, and furthermore integrate the flow of ice and transport of debris within the ice, thus allowing for the study of dynamic feedbacks between subglacial erosion and systematic glacier-scale variations in basal-ice debris concentration. The experiments explored several physics-based models for glacial erosion, in combination with different models for basal sliding to elucidate the relationship between sliding speed, erosion rate and basal-ice debris concentration. The results demonstrate how differences in debris concentration can explain large variations in measured rates. The experiments also provide a simple explanation for the observed dependence of glacier-averaged rate of erosion on glacier size: that large glacier uplands feed more debris into their lower-elevation parts, thereby strengthening their erosive power.

Investigating ice cliff evolution and contribution to glacier mass-balance using a physically-based dynamic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buri, Pascal; Miles, Evan; Ragettli, Silvan; Brun, Fanny; Steiner, Jakob; Pellicciotti, Francesca

2016-04-01

Supraglacial cliffs are a surface feature typical of debris-covered glaciers, affecting surface evolution, glacier downwasting and mass balance by providing a direct ice-atmosphere interface. As a result, melt rates can be very high and ice cliffs may account for a significant portion of the total glacier mass loss. However, their contribution to glacier mass balance has rarely been quantified through physically-based models. Most cliff energy balance models are point scale models which calculate energy fluxes at individual cliff locations. Results from the only grid based model to date accurately reflect energy fluxes and cliff melt, but modelled backwasting patterns are in some cases unrealistic, as the distribution of melt rates would lead to progressive shallowing and disappearance of cliffs. Based on a unique multitemporal dataset of cliff topography and backwasting obtained from high-resolution terrestrial and aerial Structure-from-Motion analysis on Lirung Glacier in Nepal, it is apparent that cliffs exhibit a range of behaviours but most do not rapidly disappear. The patterns of evolution cannot be explained satisfactorily by atmospheric melt alone, and are moderated by the presence of supraglacial ponds at the base of cliffs and by cliff reburial with debris. Here, we document the distinct patterns of evolution including disappearance, growth and stability. We then use these observations to improve the grid-based energy balance model, implementing periodic updates of the cliff geometry resulting from modelled melt perpendicular to the ice surface. Based on a slope threshold, pixels can be reburied by debris or become debris-free. The effect of ponds are taken into account through enhanced melt rates in horizontal direction on pixels selected based on an algorithm considering distance to the water surface, slope and lake level. We use the dynamic model to first study the evolution of selected cliffs for which accurate, high resolution DEMs are available, and then apply the model to the entirety of Lirung and Langtang glaciers to quantify the total contributions of cliffs to glacier mass balance. Observations and model results suggest a strong dependency of the cliffs' life cycle on supraglacial ponds, as the water body keeps the cliff geometry constant through a combination of backwasting and calving at the bottom and maintenance of steep slopes in the lowest sections. The absence of ponds causes the progressive flattening of the cliff, which finally leads to complete disappearance. Modelled volume losses from May to October 2013 range from 2650 to 9415 m3 w.e., in agreement with the estimates with the SfM-approach. Mean error of modelled elevation within the cliff outline ranges from -1.3 to 0.6m. This work sheds light on mechanisms of cliffs' changes by quantifying them for the first time with a physically-based, dynamic model, and presents the first complete estimate of the relevance of supraglacial ice-cliffs to total glacier mass-balance for two distinct glaciers.

Investigation of uranium molecular species using laser ablation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curreli, Davide

2017-07-12

The goal of this project is to investigate the dynamic evolution of uranium oxide (UOx) molecular species in a rapidly cooling low-temperature plasma using a coupled experimental and modeling approach. Our purpose is to develop quantitative constraints on the UOx phase chemistry under physical conditions similar to that of a nuclear fireball at the time of debris condensation. This work is motivated by a need to better understand the factors controlling uranium chemical fractionation in post-detonation nuclear debris.

Impact of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China on subsequent long-term debris flow activities in the epicentral area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, S.; Zhang, L. M.

2017-01-01

The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake triggered the largest number of landslides among the recent strong earthquake events around the world. The loose landslide materials were retained on steep terrains and deep gullies. In the period from 2008 to 2015, numerous debris flows occurred during rainstorms along the Provincial Road 303 (PR303) near the epicentre of the earthquake, causing serious damage to the reconstructed highway. Approximately 5.24 × 106 m3 of debris-flow sediment was deposited shortly after the earthquake. This paper evaluates the evolution of the debris flows that occurred after the Wenchuan earthquake, which helps understand long-term landscape evolution and cascading effects in regions impacted by mega earthquakes. With the aid of a GIS platform combined with field investigations, we continuously tracked movements of the loose deposit materials in all the debris flow gullies along an 18 km reach of PR303 and the characteristics of the regional debris flows during several storms in the past seven years. This paper presents five important aspects of the evolution of debris flows: (1) supply of debris flow materials; (2) triggering rainfall; (3) initiation mechanisms and types of debris flows; (4) runout characteristics; and (5) elevated riverbed due to the deposited materials from the debris flows. The hillslope soil deposits gradually evolved into channel deposits and the solid materials in the channels moved towards the ravine mouth. Accordingly, channelized debris flows became dominant gradually. Due to the decreasing source material volume and changes in debris flow characteristics, the triggering rainfall tends to increase from 30 mm h- 1 in 2008 to 64 mm h- 1 in 2013, and the runout distance tends to decrease over time. The runout materials blocked the river and elevated the riverbed by at least 30 m in parts of the study area. The changes in the post-seismic debris flow activity can be categorized into three stages, i.e., active, unstable, and recession.

The recent upgrade and future perspectives of the ESABASE/Debris tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunte, K.; Langwost, A.; Drolshagen, G.

ESABASE is a software tool which provides more than ten applications for space- specific analyses, such as atomic oxygen recession, charging, space debris and meteoroid impacts, outgassing contamination, attitude perturbations, radiation, and others. The proposed paper focuses on the ESABASE/Debris application, which has been upgraded in the course of a recent ESA/ESTEC study. The methods used to calculate the debris and meteoroid flux on, and the related number of failures of a spacecraft surface will be presented. A brief description of the capabilities and features of the program will be given. The main extension of ESABASE/Debris is the implementation of new state-of-the- art particulate flux models. ESA's MASTER 2001 debris model includes the latest findings in the debris research, the considered particle size ranges from 1micron up to 100m. The model covers all orbital altitudes from LEO to GEO, and any target orbit within its altitude range. The user may select or deselect single debris source terms (e.g. fragments, SRM slag particles, NaK droplets). For the first time, the MASTER 2001 model provides realistic population data for historic and future (based on pre- defined debris environment evolution scenario s) epochs. Thus, the ESABASE/Debris user is able to (re-) investigate historic missions (e.g. LDEF), or to assess the risk posed to future missions (e.g. ISS). The Divine-Staubach meteoroid model still represents the best fit to the interplanetary meteoroid environment and its appearance for Earth-bound satellites. Since it is part of the MASTER model, it has been made available for meteoroid analysis within ESABASE/Debris. The most important implementation aspects as well as the general model implementation strategy will be outlined. All new features and capabilities of ESABASE/Debris have been tested and verified by means of pre-defined test cases. Some interesting results of the software verification and validation process will be presented. The upgraded ESABASE/Debris and its new flux models have been applied to the historic LDEF mission. The model results will be discussed by means of a comparison with measured impact data. Additionally, the results of impact flux analyses of a simplified ISS model and of a geostationary satellite will provide an impression of the comprehensive capabilties of ESABASE/Debris. In the near future, some important development steps will significantly facilitate the applicability of the ESABASE tool. It is intended to establish a PC -based version of the complete software including a completely revised graphical user interface. The effort for porting and a simultaneous improvement of ergonomic aspects, and the consideration of the user demands is currently evaluated in an ESA/E TEC study.S The porting activities will also include the establishment of a new spacecraft data model which will allow ESABASE to make use of commonly available software packages for the generation and display of three-dimensional spacecraft models. The presentation of the future development activities will conclude the paper.

Collisional and dynamic evolution of dust from the asteroid belt

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gustafson, Bo A. S.; Gruen, Eberhard; Dermott, Stanley F.; Durda, Daniel D.

1992-01-01

The size and spatial distribution of collisional debris from main belt asteroids is modeled over a 10 million year period. The model dust and meteoroid particles spiral toward the Sun under the action of Poynting-Robertson drag and grind down as they collide with a static background of field particles.

Space Debris Symposium (A6.) Measurements and Space Surveillance (1.): Measurements of the Small Particle Debris Cloud from the 11 January, 2007 Chinese Anti-satellite Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matney, Mark J.; Stansbery, Eugene; J.-C Liou; Stokely, Christopher; Horstman, Matthew; Whitlock, David

2008-01-01

On January 11, 2007, the Chinese military conducted a test of an anti-satellite (ASAT) system, destroying their own Fengyun-1C spacecraft with an interceptor missile. The resulting hypervelocity collision created an unprecedented number of tracked debris - more than 2500 objects. These objects represent only those large enough for the US Space Surveillance Network (SSN) to track - typically objects larger than about 5-10 cm in diameter. There are expected to be even more debris objects at sizes too small to be seen and tracked by the SSN. Because of the altitude of the target satellite (865 x 845 km orbit), many of the debris are expected to have long orbital lifetimes and contribute to the orbital debris environment for decades to come. In the days and weeks following the ASAT test, NASA was able to use Lincoln Laboratory s Haystack radar on several occasions to observe portions of the ASAT debris cloud. Haystack has the capability of detecting objects down to less than one centimeter in diameter, and a large number of centimeter-sized particles corresponding to the ASAT cloud were clearly seen in the data. While Haystack cannot track these objects, the statistical sampling procedures NASA uses can give an accurate statistical picture of the characteristics of the debris from a breakup event. For years computer models based on data from ground hypervelocity collision tests (e.g., the SOCIT test) and orbital collision experiments (e.g., the P-78 and Delta-180 on-orbit collisions) have been used to predict the extent and characteristics of such hypervelocity collision debris clouds, but until now there have not been good ways to verify these models in the centimeter size regime. It is believed that unplanned collisions of objects in space similar to ASAT tests will drive the long-term future evolution of the debris environment in near-Earth space. Therefore, the Chinese ASAT test provides an excellent opportunity to test the models used to predict the future debris environment. For this study, Haystack detection events are compared to model predictions to test the model assumptions, including debris size distribution, velocity distribution, and assumptions about momentum transfer between the target and interceptor. In this paper we will present the results of these and other measurements on the size and extent of collisional breakup debris clouds.

The perfect debris flow? Aggregated results from 28 large-scale experiments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iverson, Richard M.; Logan, Matthew; LaHusen, Richard G.; Berti, Matteo

2010-01-01

Aggregation of data collected in 28 controlled experiments reveals reproducible debris-flow behavior that provides a clear target for model tests. In each experiment ∼10 m3 of unsorted, water-saturated sediment composed mostly of sand and gravel discharged from behind a gate, descended a steep, 95-m flume, and formed a deposit on a nearly horizontal runout surface. Experiment subsets were distinguished by differing basal boundary conditions (1 versus 16 mm roughness heights) and sediment mud contents (1 versus 7 percent dry weight). Sensor measurements of evolving flow thicknesses, basal normal stresses, and basal pore fluid pressures demonstrate that debris flows in all subsets developed dilated, coarse-grained, high-friction snouts, followed by bodies of nearly liquefied, finer-grained debris. Mud enhanced flow mobility by maintaining high pore pressures in flow bodies, and bed roughness reduced flow speeds but not distances of flow runout. Roughness had these effects because it promoted debris agitation and grain-size segregation, and thereby aided growth of lateral levees that channelized flow. Grain-size segregation also contributed to development of ubiquitous roll waves, which had diverse amplitudes exhibiting fractal number-size distributions. Despite the influence of these waves and other sources of dispersion, the aggregated data have well-defined patterns that help constrain individual terms in a depth-averaged debris-flow model. The patterns imply that local flow resistance evolved together with global flow dynamics, contradicting the hypothesis that any consistent rheology applied. We infer that new evolution equations, not new rheologies, are needed to explain how characteristic debris-flow behavior emerges from the interactions of debris constituents.

Jupiter After the 2009 Impact: Hubble Space Telescope Imaging of the Impact-Generated Debris and Its Temporal Evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hammel, H. B.; Wong, M. H.; Clarke, J. T.; de Pater, I.; Fletcher, L. N.; Hueso, R.; Noll, K.; Orton, G. S.; Perez-Hoyos, S.; Sanchez-Lavega, A.;

Predicting debris-flow initiation and run-out with a depth-averaged two-phase model and adaptive numerical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

George, D. L.; Iverson, R. M.

2012-12-01

Numerically simulating debris-flow motion presents many challenges due to the complicated physics of flowing granular-fluid mixtures, the diversity of spatial scales (ranging from a characteristic particle size to the extent of the debris flow deposit), and the unpredictability of the flow domain prior to a simulation. Accurately predicting debris-flows requires models that are complex enough to represent the dominant effects of granular-fluid interaction, while remaining mathematically and computationally tractable. We have developed a two-phase depth-averaged mathematical model for debris-flow initiation and subsequent motion. Additionally, we have developed software that numerically solves the model equations efficiently on large domains. A unique feature of the mathematical model is that it includes the feedback between pore-fluid pressure and the evolution of the solid grain volume fraction, a process that regulates flow resistance. This feature endows the model with the ability to represent the transition from a stationary mass to a dynamic flow. With traditional approaches, slope stability analysis and flow simulation are treated separately, and the latter models are often initialized with force balances that are unrealistically far from equilibrium. Additionally, our new model relies on relatively few dimensionless parameters that are functions of well-known material properties constrained by physical data (eg. hydraulic permeability, pore-fluid viscosity, debris compressibility, Coulomb friction coefficient, etc.). We have developed numerical methods and software for accurately solving the model equations. By employing adaptive mesh refinement (AMR), the software can efficiently resolve an evolving debris flow as it advances through irregular topography, without needing terrain-fit computational meshes. The AMR algorithms utilize multiple levels of grid resolutions, so that computationally inexpensive coarse grids can be used where the flow is absent, and much higher resolution grids evolve with the flow. The reduction in computational cost, due to AMR, makes very large-scale problems tractable on personal computers. Model accuracy can be tested by comparison of numerical predictions and empirical data. These comparisons utilize controlled experiments conducted at the USGS debris-flow flume, which provide detailed data about flow mobilization and dynamics. Additionally, we have simulated historical large-scale debris flows, such as the (≈50 million m^3) debris flow that originated on Mt. Meager, British Columbia in 2010. This flow took a very complex route through highly variable topography and provides a valuable benchmark for testing. Maps of the debris flow deposit and data from seismic stations provide evidence regarding flow initiation, transit times and deposition. Our simulations reproduce many of the complex patterns of the event, such as run-out geometry and extent, and the large-scale nature of the flow and the complex topographical features demonstrate the utility of AMR in flow simulations.

Modelling the response of a Himalayan watershed to climate change: new insights from linking high resolution in-situ data and remote sensing with an advanced simulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragettli, S.; Pellicciotti, F.; Immerzeel, W.

2014-12-01

In high-elevation watersheds of the Himalayan region the correct representation of the internal states and process dynamics in glacio-hydrological models can often not be verified due to missing in-situ measurements. The aim of this study is to provide a fundamental understanding of the hydrology of a Himalayan watershed through the systematic integration of in-situ data in a glacio-hydrological model. We use ground data from the upper Langtang valley in Nepal combined with high resolution satellite data to understand specific processes and test the application of new model components specifically developed. We apply a new model for ablation under debris that takes into account the varying effect of debris thickness on melt rates. A novel approach is tested to reconstruct spatial fields of debris thickness through combination of energy balance modelling, UAV-derived geodetic mass balance and statistical techniques. The systematic integration of in-situ data for model calibration enables the application of a state-of-the art model with many parameters to model glacier evolution and catchment runoff in spite of the lack of continuous long-term historical records. It allows drawing conclusions on the importance of processes that have been suggested as being relevant but never quantified before. The simulations show that 8.7% of total water inputs originate from sub-debris ice melt. 4.5% originate from melted avalanched snow. These components can be locally much more important, since the spatial variability of processes within the valley is high. The model is then used to simulate the response of the catchment to climate change. We show that climate warming leads to an increase in future icemelt and a peak in glacier runoff by mid-century. The increase in total icemelt is due to higher melt rates and large areas that are currently located above the equilibrium line altitude additionally that will contribute to melt. Catchment runoff will not reach below current levels throughout the 21st century due to precipitation increases. Debris covered glacier area will disappear at a slower pace than non-debris covered area. Still, due to the relative climate insensitivity of melt rates below thick debris, the contribution of sub-debris icemelt to runoff will not exceed 10% at all times.

Modeling collisions in circumstellar debris disks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nesvold, Erika

2015-10-01

Observations of resolved debris disks show a spectacular variety of features and asymmetries, including inner cavities and gaps, inclined secondary disks or warps, and eccentric, sharp-edged rings. Embedded exoplanets could create many of these features via gravitational perturbations, which sculpt the disk directly and by generating planetesimal collisions. In this thesis, I present the Superparticle Model/Algorithm for Collisions in Kuiper belts and debris disks (SMACK), a new method for simultaneously modeling, in 3-D, the collisional and dynamical evolution of planetesimals in a debris disk with planets. SMACK can simulate azimuthal asymmetries and how these asymmetries evolve over time. I show that SMACK is stable to numerical viscosity and numerical heating over 107 yr, and that it can reproduce analytic models of disk evolution. As an example of the algorithm's capabilities, I use SMACK to model the evolution of a debris ring containing a planet on an eccentric orbit and demonstrate that differential precession creates a spiral structure as the ring evolves, but collisions subsequently break up the spiral, leaving a narrower eccentric ring. To demonstrate SMACK's utility in studying debris disk physics, I apply SMACK to simulate a planet on a circular orbit near a ring of planetesimals that are experiencing destructive collisions. Previous simulations of a planet opening a gap in a collisionless debris disk have found that the width of the gap scales as the planet mass to the 2/7th power (alpha = 2/7). I find that gap sizes in a collisional disk still obey a power law scaling with planet mass, but that the index alpha of the power law depends on the age of the system t relative to the collisional timescale t coll of the disk by alpha = 0.32(t/ tcoll)-0.04, with inferred planet masses up to five times smaller than those predicted by the classical gap law. The increased gap sizes likely stem from the interaction between collisions and the mean motion resonances near the chaotic zone. I investigate the effects of the initial eccentricity distribution of the disk particles and find a negligible effect on the gap size at Jovian planet masses, since collisions tend to erase memory of the initial particle eccentricity distributions. I also find that the presence of Trojan analogs is a potentially powerful diagnostic of planets in the mass range ˜1--10MJup. I apply my model to place new upper limits on planets around Fomalhaut, HR 4796 A, HD 202628, HD 181327, and beta Pictoris. Finally, to show how SMACK can be used to analyze a single debris disk in detail, I present a new model of the beta Pictoris disk and planet system that, for the first time, combines simulations of the colliding planetesimals and the dynamics of the dust grains, allowing me to model features and asymmetries in both submillimeter and scattered light images of the disk. I combine a 100,000 superparticle SMACK simulation with N-body integrations of the dust produced by the simulated collisions. I find that secular perturbations of the planet's measured inclination and eccentricity can explain the observed warp and planetesimal ring, while collisions between planetesimals shape the disk by eroding close-in material. The complex 3D structure of the disk due to the perturbations from the planet creates an azimuthally asymmetric spatial distribution of collisions, which could contribute to the observed azimuthal clump of CO gas seen with ALMA. My simulations of the small dust grains produced by collisions demonstrate that the "birth ring" approximation for beta Pictoris fails to account for the ˜54% of dust mass produced outside of the planetesimal ring. I also reproduce the gross morphology of high-resolution scattered light images of the disk, including the two-disk "x"-pattern seen in scattered light, which has not been replicated by previous dust dynamics models.

Dynamics and offset control of tethered space-tug system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jingrui; Yang, Keying; Qi, Rui

2018-01-01

Tethered space-tug system is regarded as one of the most promising active debris removal technologies to effectively decrease the steep increasing population of space debris. In order to suppress the spin of space debris, single-tethered space-tug system is employed by regulating the tether. Unfortunately, this system is underactuated as tether length is the only input, and there are two control objectives: the spinning debris and the vibration of tether. Thus, it may suffer great oscillations and result in failure in space debris removal. This paper presents the study of attitude stabilization of the single-tethered space-tug system using not only tether length but also the offset of tether attachment point to suppress the spin of debris, so as to accomplish the space debris removal mission. Firstly, a precise 3D mathematical model in which the debris and tug are both treated as rigid bodies is developed to study the dynamical evolution of the tethered space-tug system. The relative motion equation of the system is described using Lagrange method. Secondly, the dynamic characteristic of the system is analyzed and an offset control law is designed to stabilize the spin of debris by exploiting the variation of tether offset and the regulation of tether length. Besides, an estimation formula is proposed to evaluate the capability of tether for suppressing spinning debris. Finally, the effectiveness of attitude stabilization by the utilization of the proposed scheme is demonstrated via numerical case studies.

A globally complete map of supraglacial debris cover and a new toolkit for debris cover research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herreid, Sam; Pellicciotti, Francesca

2017-04-01

A growing canon of literature is focused on resolving the processes and implications of debris cover on glaciers. However, this work is often confined to a handful of glaciers that were likely selected based on criteria optimizing their suitability to test a specific hypothesis or logistical ease. The role of debris cover in a glacier system is likely to not go overlooked in forthcoming research, yet the magnitude of this role at a global scale has not yet been fully described. Here, we present a map of debris cover for all glacierized regions on Earth including the Greenland Ice Sheet using 30 m Landsat data. This dataset will begin to open a wider context to the high quality, localized findings from the debris-covered glacier research community and help inform large-scale modeling efforts. A global map of debris cover also facilitates analysis attempting to isolate first order geomorphological and climate controls of supraglacial debris production. Furthering the objective of expanding the inclusion of debris cover in forthcoming research, we also present an under development suite of open-source, Python based tools. Requiring minimal and often freely available input data, we have automated the mapping of: i) debris cover, ii) ice cliffs, iii) debris cover evolution over the Landsat era and iv) glacier flow instabilities from altered debris structures. At the present time, debris extent is the only globally complete quantity but with the expanding repository of high quality global datasets and further tool development minimizing manual tasks and computational cost, we foresee all of these tools being applied globally in the near future.

Predictions for the secondary CO, C and O gas content of debris discs from the destruction of volatile-rich planetesimals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kral, Quentin; Matrà, Luca; Wyatt, Mark C.; Kennedy, Grant M.

2017-07-01

This paper uses observations of dusty debris discs, including a growing number of gas detections in these systems, to test our understanding of the origin and evolution of this gaseous component. It is assumed that all debris discs with icy planetesimals create second generation CO, C and O gas at some level, and the aim of this paper is to predict that level and assess its observability. We present a new semi-analytical equivalent of the numerical model of Kral et al. allowing application to large numbers of systems. That model assumes CO is produced from volatile-rich solid bodies at a rate that can be predicted from the debris discs fractional luminosity. CO photodissociates rapidly into C and O that then evolve by viscous spreading. This model provides a good qualitative explanation of all current observations, with a few exceptional systems that likely have primordial gas. The radial location of the debris and stellar luminosity explain some non-detections, e.g. close-in debris (like HD 172555) is too warm to retain CO, while high stellar luminosities (like η Tel) result in short CO lifetimes. We list the most promising targets for gas detections, predicting >15 CO detections and >30 C I detections with ALMA, and tens of C II and O I detections with future far-IR missions. We find that CO, C I, C II and O I gas should be modelled in non-LTE for most stars, and that CO, C I and O I lines will be optically thick for the most gas-rich systems. Finally, we find that radiation pressure, which can blow out C I around early-type stars, can be suppressed by self-shielding.

Signatures of massive collisions in debris discs. A self-consistent numerical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kral, Q.; Thébault, P.; Augereau, J.-C.; Boccaletti, A.; Charnoz, S.

2015-01-01

Context. Violent stochastic collisional events have been invoked as a possible explanation for some debris discs displaying pronounced azimuthal asymmetries or having a luminosity excess exceeding that expected for systems at collisional steady-state. So far, no thorough modelling of the consequences of such stochastic events has been carried out, mainly because of the extreme numerical challenge of coupling the dynamical and collisional evolution of the released dust. Aims: We perform the first fully self-consistent modelling of the aftermath of massive breakups in debris discs. We follow the collisional and dynamical evolution of dust released after the breakup of a Ceres-sized body at 6 AU from its central star. We investigate the duration, magnitude, and spatial structure of the signature left by such a violent event, as well as its observational detectability. Methods: We use the recently developed LIDT-DD code, which handles the coupled collisional and dynamical evolution of debris discs. The main focus is placed on the complex interplay between destructive collisions, Keplerian dynamics, and radiation pressure forces. We use the GRaTer package to estimate the system's luminosity at different wavelengths. Results: The breakup of a Ceres-sized body at 6 AU creates an asymmetric dust disc that is homogenized by the coupled action of collisions and dynamics on a timescale of a few 105 years. After a transient period where it is very steep, the particle size distribution in the system relaxes to a collisional steady-state law after ~104 years. The luminosity excess in the breakup's aftermath should be detectable by mid-IR photometry, from a 30 pc distance, over a period of ~106 years that exceeds the duration of the asymmetric phase of the disc (a few 105 years). As for the asymmetric structures, we derive synthetic images for the VLT/SPHERE and JWST/MIRI instruments, showing that they should be clearly visible and resolved from a 10 pc distance. Images at 1.6 μm (marginally), 11.4, and 15.5 μm show the inner disc structures, while 23 μm images display the outer disc asymmetries.

WIRED for EC: New White Dwarfs with WISE Infrared Excesses and New Classification Schemes from the Edinburgh–Cape Blue Object Survey

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dennihy, E.; Clemens, J. C.; Dunlap, B. H.

We present a simple method for identifying candidate white dwarf systems with dusty exoplanetary debris based on a single temperature blackbody model fit to the infrared excess. We apply this technique to a sample of Southern Hemisphere white dwarfs from the recently completed Edinburgh–Cape Blue Object Survey and identify four new promising dusty debris disk candidates. We demonstrate the efficacy of our selection method by recovering three of the four Spitzer confirmed dusty debris disk systems in our sample. Further investigation using archival high-resolution imaging shows that Spitzer data of the unrecovered fourth object is likely contaminated by a line-of-sightmore » object that either led to a misclassification as a dusty disk in the literature or is confounding our method. Finally, in our diagnostic plot, we show that dusty white dwarfs, which also host gaseous debris, lie along a boundary of our dusty debris disk region, providing clues to the origin and evolution of these especially interesting systems.« less

The physics of debris flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iverson, Richard M.

1997-08-01

Recent advances in theory and experimentation motivate a thorough reassessment of the physics of debris flows. Analyses of flows of dry, granular solids and solid-fluid mixtures provide a foundation for a comprehensive debris flow theory, and experiments provide data that reveal the strengths and limitations of theoretical models. Both debris flow materials and dry granular materials can sustain shear stresses while remaining static; both can deform in a slow, tranquil mode characterized by enduring, frictional grain contacts; and both can flow in a more rapid, agitated mode characterized by brief, inelastic grain collisions. In debris flows, however, pore fluid that is highly viscous and nearly incompressible, composed of water with suspended silt and clay, can strongly mediate intergranular friction and collisions. Grain friction, grain collisions, and viscous fluid flow may transfer significant momentum simultaneously. Both the vibrational kinetic energy of solid grains (measured by a quantity termed the granular temperature) and the pressure of the intervening pore fluid facilitate motion of grains past one another, thereby enhancing debris flow mobility. Granular temperature arises from conversion of flow translational energy to grain vibrational energy, a process that depends on shear rates, grain properties, boundary conditions, and the ambient fluid viscosity and pressure. Pore fluid pressures that exceed static equilibrium pressures result from local or global debris contraction. Like larger, natural debris flows, experimental debris flows of ˜10 m³ of poorly sorted, water-saturated sediment invariably move as an unsteady surge or series of surges. Measurements at the base of experimental flows show that coarse-grained surge fronts have little or no pore fluid pressure. In contrast, finer-grained, thoroughly saturated debris behind surge fronts is nearly liquefied by high pore pressure, which persists owing to the great compressibility and moderate permeability of the debris. Realistic models of debris flows therefore require equations that simulate inertial motion of surges in which high-resistance fronts dominated by solid forces impede the motion of low-resistance tails more strongly influenced by fluid forces. Furthermore, because debris flows characteristically originate as nearly rigid sediment masses, transform at least partly to liquefied flows, and then transform again to nearly rigid deposits, acceptable models must simulate an evolution of material behavior without invoking preternatural changes in material properties. A simple model that satisfies most of these criteria uses depth-averaged equations of motion patterned after those of the Savage-Hutter theory for gravity-driven flow of dry granular masses but generalized to include the effects of viscous pore fluid with varying pressure. These equations can describe a spectrum of debris flow behaviors intermediate between those of wet rock avalanches and sediment-laden water floods. With appropriate pore pressure distributions the equations yield numerical solutions that successfully predict unsteady, nonuniform motion of experimental debris flows.

The physics of debris flows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iverson, R.M.

1997-01-01

Recent advances in theory and experimentation motivate a thorough reassessment of the physics of debris flows. Analyses of flows of dry, granular solids and solid-fluid mixtures provide a foundation for a comprehensive debris flow theory, and experiments provide data that reveal the strengths and limitations of theoretical models. Both debris flow materials and dry granular materials can sustain shear stresses while remaining static; both can deform in a slow, tranquil mode characterized by enduring, frictional grain contacts; and both can flow in a more rapid, agitated mode characterized by brief, inelastic grain collisions. In debris flows, however, pore fluid that is highly viscous and nearly incompressible, composed of water with suspended silt and clay, can strongly mediate intergranular friction and collisions. Grain friction, grain collisions, and viscous fluid flow may transfer significant momentum simultaneously. Both the vibrational kinetic energy of solid grains (measured by a quantity termed the granular temperature) and the pressure of the intervening pore fluid facilitate motion of grains past one another, thereby enhancing debris flow mobility. Granular temperature arises from conversion of flow translational energy to grain vibrational energy, a process that depends on shear rates, grain properties, boundary conditions, and the ambient fluid viscosity and pressure. Pore fluid pressures that exceed static equilibrium pressures result from local or global debris contraction. Like larger, natural debris flows, experimental debris flows of ???10 m3 of poorly sorted, water-saturated sediment invariably move as an unsteady surge or series of surges. Measurements at the base of experimental flows show that coarse-grained surge fronts have little or no pore fluid pressure. In contrast, finer-grained, thoroughly saturated debris behind surge fronts is nearly liquefied by high pore pressure, which persists owing to the great compressibility and moderate permeability of the debris. Realistic models of debris flows therefore require equations that simulate inertial motion of surges in which high-resistance fronts dominated by solid forces impede the motion of low-resistance tails more strongly influenced by fluid forces. Furthermore, because debris flows characteristically originate as nearly rigid sediment masses, transform at least partly to liquefied flows, and then transform again to nearly rigid deposits, acceptable models must simulate an evolution of material behavior without invoking preternatural changes in material properties. A simple model that satisfies most of these criteria uses depth-averaged equations of motion patterned after those of the Savage-Hutter theory for gravity-driven flow of dry granular masses but generalized to include the effects of viscous pore fluid with varying pressure. These equations can describe a spectrum of debris flow behaviors intermediate between those of wet rock avalanches and sediment-laden water floods. With appropriate pore pressure distributions the equations yield numerical solutions that successfully predict unsteady, nonuniform motion of experimental debris flows.

Physical Limits on the Predictability of Erosion and Sediment Transport by Landslides and Debris Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iverson, R. M.

2015-12-01

Episodic landslides and debris flows play a key role in sculpting many steep landscapes, and they also pose significant natural hazards. Field evidence, laboratory experiments, and theoretical analyses show that variations in the quantity, speed, and distance of sediment transport by landslides and debris flows can depend strongly on nuanced differences in initial conditions. Moreover, initial conditions themselves can be strongly dependent on the geological legacy of prior events. The scope of these dependencies is revealed by the results of landslide dynamics experiments [Iverson et al., Science, 2000], debris-flow erosion experiments [Iverson et al., Nature Geosci., 2011], and numerical simulations of the highly destructive 2014 Oso, Washington, landslide [Iverson et al., Earth Planet. Sci. Let., 2015]. In each of these cases, feedbacks between basal sediment deformation and pore-pressure generation cause the speed and distance of sediment transport to be very sensitive to subtle differences in the ambient sediment porosity and water content. On the other hand, the onset of most landslides and debris flows depends largely on pore-water pressure distributions and only indirectly on sediment porosity and water content. Thus, even if perfect predictions of the locations and timing of landslides and debris flows were available, the dynamics of the events - and their consequent hazards and sediment transport - would be difficult to predict. This difficulty is a manifestation of the nonlinear physics involved, rather than of poor understanding of those physics. Consequently, physically based models for assessing the hazards and sediment transport due to landslides and debris flows must take into account both evolving nonlinear dynamics and inherent uncertainties about initial conditions. By contrast, landscape evolution models that use prescribed algebraic formulas to represent sediment transport by landslides and debris flows lack a sound physical basis.

Evolution of large, organic debris after timber harvest: Maybeso Creek, 1949 to1978

Treesearch

Mason D. Bryant

1980-01-01

The Maybeso Creek valley was logged from 1953 to 1960. Stream maps showing large accumulations of debris and stream channel features were made in 1949 and updated to 1960. The objectives of this paper are to document the effects of natural and logging debris on channel morphome try and to examine the fate of logging debris during and after logging. Map sections from...

Collisional Cascades Following Triton's Capture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuk, Matija; Hamilton, Douglas P.; Stewart-Mukhopadhyay, Sarah T.

2017-10-01

Neptune's moon Triton is widely thought to have been captured from heliocentric orbit, most likely through binary dissociation (Agnor and Hamilton, 2006). Triton's original eccentric orbit must have been subsequently circularized by satellite tides (Goldreich et al. 1989). Cuk and Gladman (2005) found that Kozai oscillations make early tidal evolution inefficient, and have proposed that collisions between Triton and debris from pre-existing satellites was the dominant mechanism of shrinking Triton's large post-capture orbit. However, Cuk and Hamilton (DPS 2016), using numerical simulations and results of Stewart and Leinhardt (2012), have found that collisions between regular satellites are unlikely to be destructive, while collisions between prograde moons and Triton are certainly erosive if not catastrophic. An obvious outcome would be pre-existing moon material gradually grinding down Triton and making it reaccrete in the local Laplace plane, in conflict with Triton's large current inclination. We propose that the crucial ingredient for understanding the early evolution of the Neptunian system are the collisions between the moons and the prograde and retrograde debris originating from the pre-existing moons and Triton. In particular, we expect early erosive impact(s) on Triton to generate debris that will, in subsequent collisions, disrupt the regular satellites. If the retrograde material were to dominate at some planetocentric distances, the end result may be a large cloud or disk of retrograde debris that would be accreted by Triton, shrinking Triton's orbit. Some of the prograde debris could survive in a compact disk interior to Triton's pericenter, eventually forming the inner moons of Neptune. We will present results of numerical modeling of these complex dynamical processes at the meeting.

Propagation of a channelized debris-flow: experimental investigation and parameters identification for numerical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Termini, Donatella

2013-04-01

Recent catastrophic events due to intense rainfalls have mobilized large amount of sediments causing extensive damages in vast areas. These events have highlighted how debris-flows runout estimations are of crucial importance to delineate the potentially hazardous areas and to make reliable assessment of the level of risk of the territory. Especially in recent years, several researches have been conducted in order to define predicitive models. But, existing runout estimation methods need input parameters that can be difficult to estimate. Recent experimental researches have also allowed the assessment of the physics of the debris flows. But, the major part of the experimental studies analyze the basic kinematic conditions which determine the phenomenon evolution. Experimental program has been recently conducted at the Hydraulic laboratory of the Department of Civil, Environmental, Aerospatial and of Materials (DICAM) - University of Palermo (Italy). The experiments, carried out in a laboratory flume appositely constructed, were planned in order to evaluate the influence of different geometrical parameters (such as the slope and the geometrical characteristics of the confluences to the main channel) on the propagation phenomenon of the debris flow and its deposition. Thus, the aim of the present work is to give a contribution to defining input parameters in runout estimation by numerical modeling. The propagation phenomenon is analyzed for different concentrations of solid materials. Particular attention is devoted to the identification of the stopping distance of the debris flow and of the involved parameters (volume, angle of depositions, type of material) in the empirical predictive equations available in literature (Rickenmanm, 1999; Bethurst et al. 1997). Bethurst J.C., Burton A., Ward T.J. 1997. Debris flow run-out and landslide sediment delivery model tests. Journal of hydraulic Engineering, ASCE, 123(5), 419-429 Rickenmann D. 1999. Empirical relationships fro debris flow. Natural hazards, 19, pp. 47-77

Debris disks as signposts of terrestrial planet formation. II. Dependence of exoplanet architectures on giant planet and disk properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raymond, S. N.; Armitage, P. J.; Moro-Martín, A.; Booth, M.; Wyatt, M. C.; Armstrong, J. C.; Mandell, A. M.; Selsis, F.; West, A. A.

2012-05-01

We present models for the formation of terrestrial planets, and the collisional evolution of debris disks, in planetary systems that contain multiple marginally unstable gas giants. We previously showed that in such systems, the dynamics of the giant planets introduces a correlation between the presence of terrestrial planets and cold dust, i.e., debris disks, which is particularly pronounced at λ ~ 70 μm. Here we present new simulations that show that this connection is qualitatively robust to a range of parameters: the mass distribution of the giant planets, the width and mass distribution of the outer planetesimal disk, and the presence of gas in the disk when the giant planets become unstable. We discuss how variations in these parameters affect the evolution. We find that systems with equal-mass giant planets undergo the most violent instabilities, and that these destroy both terrestrial planets and the outer planetesimal disks that produce debris disks. In contrast, systems with low-mass giant planets efficiently produce both terrestrial planets and debris disks. A large fraction of systems with low-mass (M ≲ 30 M⊕) outermost giant planets have final planetary separations that, scaled to the planets' masses, are as large or larger than the Saturn-Uranus and Uranus-Neptune separations in the solar system. We find that the gaps between these planets are not only dynamically stable to test particles, but are frequently populated by planetesimals. The possibility of planetesimal belts between outer giant planets should be taken into account when interpreting debris disk SEDs. In addition, the presence of ~ Earth-mass "seeds" in outer planetesimal disks causes the disks to radially spread to colder temperatures, and leads to a slow depletion of the outer planetesimal disk from the inside out. We argue that this may explain the very low frequency of >1 Gyr-old solar-type stars with observed 24 μm excesses. Our simulations do not sample the full range of plausible initial conditions for planetary systems. However, among the configurations explored, the best candidates for hosting terrestrial planets at ~1 AU are stars older than 0.1-1 Gyr with bright debris disks at 70 μm but with no currently-known giant planets. These systems combine evidence for the presence of ample rocky building blocks, with giant planet properties that are least likely to undergo destructive dynamical evolution. Thus, we predict two correlations that should be detected by upcoming surveys: an anti-correlation between debris disks and eccentric giant planets and a positive correlation between debris disks and terrestrial planets. Three movies associated to Figs. 1, 3, and 7 are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Experimental validation of damping properties and solar pressure effects on flexible, high area-to-mass ratio debris model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Channumsin, Sittiporn; Ceriotti, Matteo; Radice, Gianmarco; Watson, Ian

2017-09-01

Multilayer insulation (MLI) is a recently-discovered type of debris originating from delamination of aging spacecraft; it is mostly detected near the geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Observation data indicates that these objects are characterised by high reflectivity, high area-to-mass ratio (HAMR), fast rotation, high sensitivity to perturbations (especially solar radiation pressure) and change of area-to-mass ratio (AMR) over time. As a result, traditional models (e.g. cannonball) are unsuitable to represent and predict this debris' orbital evolution. Previous work by the authors effectively modelled the flexible debris by means of multibody dynamics to improve the prediction accuracy. The orbit evolution with the flexible model resulted significantly different from using the rigid model. This paper aims to present a methodology to determine the dynamic properties of thin membranes with the purpose to validate the deformation characteristics of the flexible model. A high-vacuum chamber (10-4 mbar) to significantly decrease air friction, inside which a thin membrane is hinged at one end but free at the other provides the experimental setup. A free motion test is used to determine the damping characteristics and natural frequency of the thin membrane via logarithmic decrement and frequency response. The membrane can swing freely in the chamber and the motion is tracked by a static, optical camera, and a Kalman filter technique is implemented in the tracking algorithm to reduce noise and increase the tracking accuracy of the oscillating motion. Then, the effect of solar radiation pressure on the thin membrane is investigated: a high power spotlight (500-2000 W) is used to illuminate the sample and any displacement of the membrane is measured by means of a high-resolution laser sensor. Analytic methods from the natural frequency response and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) including multibody simulations of both experimental setups are used for the validation of the flexible model by comparing the experimental results of amplitude decay, natural frequencies and deformation. The experimental results show good agreement with both analytical results and finite element methods.

Glacial lake evolution in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and the cause of rapid expansion of proglacial lakes linked to glacial-hydrogeomorphic processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Chunqiao; Sheng, Yongwei; Ke, Linghong; Nie, Yong; Wang, Jida

2016-09-01

Glacial lakes, as an important component of the cryosphere in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP) in response to climate change, pose significant threats to the downstream lives and properties of people, engineering construction, and ecological environment via outburst floods, yet we currently have limited knowledge of their distribution, evolution, and the driving mechanism of rapid expansions due to the low accessibility and harsh natural conditions. By integrating optical imagery, satellite altimetry and digital elevation model (DEM), this study presents a regional-scale investigation of glacial lake dynamics across two river basins of the SETP during 1988-2013 and further explores the glacial-hydrogeomorphic process of rapidly expanding lakes. In total 1278 and 1396 glacial lakes were inventoried in 1988 and 2013, respectively. Approximately 92.4% of the lakes in 2013 are not in contact with modern glaciers, and the remaining 7.6% includes 27 (1.9%) debris-contact lakes (in contact with debris-covered ice) and 80 (5.7%) cirque lakes. In categorizing lake variations, we found that debris-contact proglacial lakes experienced much more rapid expansions (∼75%) than cirque lakes (∼7%) and non-glacier-contact lakes (∼3%). To explore the cause of rapid expansion for these debris-contact lakes, we further investigated the mass balance of parent glaciers and elevation changes in lake surfaces and debris-covered glacier tongues using time-series Landsat images, ICESat altimetry, and DEM. Results reveal that the upstream expansion of debris-contact proglacial lakes was not directly associated with rising water levels but with a geomorphological alternation of upstream lake basins caused by melting-induced debris subsidence at glacier termini. This suggests that the hydrogeomorphic process of glacier thinning and retreat, in comparison with direct glacial meltwater alone, may have played a dominant role in the recent glacial lake expansion observed across the SETP. Our findings assist in understanding the expansion mechanism of debris-contact proglacial lakes, which facilitates early recognition of potential glacial lake hazards in this region.

Orbital Debris: A Policy Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Nicholas L.

2007-01-01

A viewgraph presentation describing orbital debris from a policy perspective is shown. The contents include: 1) Voyage through near-Earth Space-animation; 2) What is Orbital Debris?; 3) Orbital Debris Detectors and Damage Potential; 4) Hubble Space Telescope; 5) Mir Space Station Solar Array; 6) International Space Station; 7) Space Shuttle; 8) Satellite Explosions; 9) Satellite Collisions; 10) NASA Orbital Debris Mitigation Guidelines; 11) International Space Station Jettison Policy; 12) Controlled/Uncontrolled Satellite Reentries; 13) Return of Space Objects; 14) Orbital Debris and U.S. National Space Policy; 15) U.S Government Policy Strategy; 16) Bankruptcy of the Iridium Satellite System; 17) Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC); 18) Orbital Debris at the United Nations; 19) Chinese Anti-satellite System; 20) Future Evolution of Satellite Population; and 21) Challenge of Orbital Debris

An analysis of the orbital distribution of solid rocket motor slag

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horstman, Matthew F.; Mulrooney, Mark

2009-01-01

The contribution by solid rocket motors (SRMs) to the orbital debris environment is potentially significant and insufficiently studied. Design and combustion processes can lead to the emission of enough by-products to warrant assessment of their contribution to orbital debris. These particles are formed during SRM tail-off, or burn termination, by the rapid solidification of molten Al2O3 slag accumulated during the burn. The propensity of SRMs to generate particles larger than 100μm raises concerns regarding the debris environment. Sizes as large as 1 cm have been witnessed in ground tests, and comparable sizes have been estimated via observations of sub-orbital tail-off events. Utilizing previous research we have developed more sophisticated size distributions and modeled the time evolution of resultant orbital populations using a historical database of SRM launches, propellant, and likely location and time of tail-off. This analysis indicates that SRM ejecta is a significant component of the debris environment.

The 1983 hydraulic jump in Crystal Rapid: implications for river- running and geomorphic evolution in the Grand Canyon.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kieffer, S.W.

1985-01-01

At Crystal Creek, a debris fan was emplaced in 1966, constricting the channel of the Colorado River to about 0.25 of its upstream width between 1967 and 1983, forming a major rapid. The hydraulics of Crystal Creek rapid are described, and an analysis is presented to support the hypothesis that the major wave in the rapid was a normal wave (one type of hydraulic jump). Hydraulic jumps rarely occur in natural river channels with erodible beds, but one was present at Crystal Rapid because of the unusually severe constriction of the Colorado River by the 1966 debris fan. A quantitative model for river debris fan shapes is proposed and is used to estimate prehistoric flood levels from the observed constrictions: the 0.5 value of river constriction found at the more mature debris fans in the Grand Canyon suggests that peak flood discharges of approximately 11 320 m3/s have occurred. -from Author

Sediment transport by runoff on debris-mantled dryland hillslopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michaelides, Katerina; Martin, Gareth J.

2012-09-01

Hillslopes supply sediment to river channels, and therefore impact drainage basin functioning and evolution. The relationship between hillslope attributes and sediment flux forms the basis of geomorphic transport laws used to model the long-term topographic evolution of drainage basins, but their specific interactions during individual storm events are not well understood. Runoff-driven erosion of coarse particles, prevalent in dryland environments, presents a particular set of conditions for sediment transport that is poorly resolved in current models. In order to address this gap, we developed a particle-based, force-balance model for sheetwash sediment transport on coarse, debris-mantled hillslopes within a rainfall-runoff model. We use the model to examine how the interplay between hillslope attributes (gradient, length and grain size distribution) and runoff characteristics affects sediment transport, grain-size changes on the hillslope, and sediment supply to the slope base. The relationship between sediment flux and hillslope gradient was found to transition from linear above a threshold to sigmoidal depending on hillslope length, initial grain sizes, and runoff characteristics. Grain sizes supplied to the slope base vary in a complex manner with hillslope attributes but an overall coarsening of the hillslopes is found to occur with increasing gradient, corroborating previous findings from field measurements. Intense, short duration storms result in within-hillslope sediment redistribution and equifinality in sediment supply for different hillslope characteristics, which explain the lack of field evidence for any systematic relationships. Our model findings provide insights into hillslope responses to climatic forcing and have theoretical implications for modeling hillslope evolution in dry lands.

Exploration of the aftermath of a large collision in an extreme debris disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moor, Attila; Abraham, Peter; Cataldi, Gianni; Kospal, Agnes; Pal, Andras; Vida, Krisztian

2018-05-01

Warm debris disks with extremely high fractional luminosities are exceptional, rare systems. Not explainable by steady-state evolutionary models, these extreme debris disks are believed to stem from a recent large collision of planetary embryos in the terrestrial zone. Our team recently discovered a new extreme debris disk around TYC 4209-1322-1, whose WISE W1/W2 band photometry showed a significant brightening probably related to a giant collision in the inner disk. In Cycle 13 we monitor the system by Spitzer, revealing a fading trend with an e-folding time of 1500 days with hints for a quasi-periodic modulation and a possible second smaller amplitude collision event. Here we propose to continue the monitoring campaign until the end of Cycle 14 to explore the evolution of the current long fading trend and of the second collision, and characterize the hinted modulation. Thanks to a better sampled Spitzer light curve and the unique opportunity that NASA's TESS satellite will obtain high-precision optical photometry in the same period, a new dimension will be opened in Cycle 14 in the study of one of the most spectacular extreme debris disk, scrutinizing for the first time the possible influence of stellar activity on a debris disk.

Debris Discs: Modeling/theory review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thébault, P.

2012-03-01

An impressive amount of photometric, spectroscopic and imaging observations of circumstellar debris discs has been accumulated over the past 3 decades, revealing that they come in all shapes and flavours, from young post-planet-formation systems like Beta-Pic to much older ones like Vega. What we see in these systems are small grains, which are probably only the tip of the iceberg of a vast population of larger (undetectable) collisionally-eroding bodies, leftover from the planet-formation process. Understanding the spatial structure, physical properties, origin and evolution of this dust is of crucial importance, as it is our only window into what is going on in these systems. Dust can be used as a tracer of the distribution of their collisional progenitors and of possible hidden massive pertubers, but can also allow to derive valuable information about the disc's total mass, size distribution or chemical composition. I will review the state of the art in numerical models of debris disc, and present some important issues that are explored by current modelling efforts: planet-disc interactions, link between cold (i.e. Herschel-observed) and hot discs, effect of binarity, transient versus continuous processes, etc. I will finally present some possible perspectives for the development of future models.

The Dynamical Structure of HR 8799's Inner Debris Disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contro, B.; Wittenmyer, Robert A.; Horner, J.; Marshall, Jonathan P.

2015-06-01

The HR 8799 system, with its four giant planets and two debris belts, has an architecture closely mirroring that of our Solar system where the inner, warm asteroid belt and outer, cool Edgeworth-Kuiper belt bracket the giant planets. As such, it is a valuable laboratory for examining exoplanetary dynamics and debris disk-exoplanet interactions. Whilst the outer debris belt of HR 8799 has been well resolved by previous observations, the spatial extent of the inner disk remains unknown. This leaves a significant question mark over both the location of the planetesimals responsible for producing the belt's visible dust and the physical properties of those grains. We have performed the most extensive simulations to date of the inner, unresolved debris belt around HR 8799, using UNSW Australia's Katana supercomputing facility to follow the dynamical evolution of a model inner disk comprising 300,298 particles for a period of 60 Ma. These simulations have enabled the characterisation of the extent and structure of the inner disk in detail, and will in future allow us to provide a first estimate of the small-body impact rate and water delivery prospects for possible (as-yet undetected) terrestrial planet (s) in the inner system.

The dynamical structure of the HR8799 inner debris disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wittenmyer, Robert A.; Contro de Godoy, Bruna; Horner, Jonathan; Marshall, Jonathan P.

2014-11-01

The HR 8799 system, with its four giant planets and two debris belts, has an architecture closely mirroring that of our Solar System where the inner, warm asteroid belt and outer, cool Edgeworth-Kuiper belt bracket the giant planets. As such, it is a valuable laboratory for examining exoplanet dynamics and debris disc-exoplanet interactions. Whilst the outer debris belt of HR 8799 has been well resolved by previous observations, the spatial extent of the inner disc remains unknown, leaving a question mark over both the location of the planetesimals responsible for producing the belt's visible dust and the physical properties of those grains. We have performed the most extensive simulations to date of the inner, unresolved debris belt around HR 8799, using University of New South Wales's Katana supercomputing facility to follow the dynamical evolution of a model inner disc comprising 250,000 particles for a period of 100 million years. These simulations will (1) characterise the extent and structure of the inner disk in detail and (2) provide the first estimate of the small-body impact rate and water delivery prospects for possible (as-yet undetected) terrestrial planet(s) in the inner system.

The Dynamical Structure of HR 8799's Inner Debris Disk.

PubMed

Contro, B; Wittenmyer, Robert A; Horner, J; Marshall, Jonathan P

2015-06-01

The HR 8799 system, with its four giant planets and two debris belts, has an architecture closely mirroring that of our Solar system where the inner, warm asteroid belt and outer, cool Edgeworth-Kuiper belt bracket the giant planets. As such, it is a valuable laboratory for examining exoplanetary dynamics and debris disk-exoplanet interactions. Whilst the outer debris belt of HR 8799 has been well resolved by previous observations, the spatial extent of the inner disk remains unknown. This leaves a significant question mark over both the location of the planetesimals responsible for producing the belt's visible dust and the physical properties of those grains. We have performed the most extensive simulations to date of the inner, unresolved debris belt around HR 8799, using UNSW Australia's Katana supercomputing facility to follow the dynamical evolution of a model inner disk comprising 300,298 particles for a period of 60 Ma. These simulations have enabled the characterisation of the extent and structure of the inner disk in detail, and will in future allow us to provide a first estimate of the small-body impact rate and water delivery prospects for possible (as-yet undetected) terrestrial planet (s) in the inner system.

Elements of an improved model of debris-flow motion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iverson, R.M.

2009-01-01

A new depth-averaged model of debris-flow motion describes simultaneous evolution of flow velocity and depth, solid and fluid volume fractions, and pore-fluid pressure. Non-hydrostatic pore-fluid pressure is produced by dilatancy, a state-dependent property that links the depth-averaged shear rate and volumetric strain rate of the granular phase. Pore-pressure changes caused by shearing allow the model to exhibit rate-dependent flow resistance, despite the fact that the basal shear traction involves only rate-independent Coulomb friction. An analytical solution of simplified model equations shows that the onset of downslope motion can be accelerated or retarded by pore-pressure change, contingent on whether dilatancy is positive or negative. A different analytical solution shows that such effects will likely be muted if downslope motion continues long enough, because dilatancy then evolves toward zero, and volume fractions and pore pressure concurrently evolve toward steady states. ?? 2009 American Institute of Physics.

Evolution of high-Arctic glacial landforms during deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Midgley, N. G.; Tonkin, T. N.; Graham, D. J.; Cook, S. J.

2018-06-01

Glacial landsystems in the high-Arctic have been reported to undergo geomorphological transformation during deglaciation. This research evaluates moraine evolution over a decadal timescale at Midtre Lovénbreen, Svalbard. This work is of interest because glacial landforms developed in Svalbard have been used as an analogue for landforms developed during Pleistocene mid-latitude glaciation. Ground penetrating radar was used to investigate the subsurface characteristics of moraines. To determine surface change, a LiDAR topographic data set (obtained 2003) and a UAV-derived (obtained 2014) digital surface model processed using structure-from-motion (SfM) are also compared. Evaluation of these data sets together enables subsurface character and landform response to climatic amelioration to be linked. Ground penetrating radar evidence shows that the moraine substrate at Midtre Lovénbreen includes ice-rich (radar velocities of 0.17 m ns-1) and debris-rich (radar velocities of 0.1-0.13 m ns-1) zones. The ice-rich zones are demonstrated to exhibit relatively high rates of surface change (mean thresholded rate of -4.39 m over the 11-year observation period). However, the debris-rich zones show a relatively low rate of surface change (mean thresholded rate of -0.98 m over the 11-year observation period), and the morphology of the debris-rich landforms appear stable over the observation period. A complex response of proglacial landforms to climatic warming is shown to occur within and between glacier forelands as indicated by spatially variable surface lowering rates. Landform response is controlled by the ice-debris balance of the moraine substrate, along with the topographic context (such as the influence of meltwater). Site-specific characteristics such as surface debris thickness and glaciofluvial drainage are, therefore, argued to be a highly important control on surface evolution in ice-cored terrain, resulting in a diverse response of high-Arctic glacial landsystems to climatic amelioration. These results highlight that care is needed when assessing the long-term preservation potential of contemporary landforms at high-Arctic glaciers. A better understanding of ice-cored terrain facilitates the development of appropriate age and climatic interpretations that can be obtained from palaeo ice-marginal landsystems.

A TREND BETWEEN COLD DEBRIS DISK TEMPERATURE AND STELLAR TYPE: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FORMATION AND EVOLUTION OF WIDE-ORBIT PLANETS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ballering, Nicholas P.; Rieke, George H.; Su, Kate Y. L.

2013-09-20

Cold debris disks trace the limits of planet formation or migration in the outer regions of planetary systems, and thus have the potential to answer many of the outstanding questions in wide-orbit planet formation and evolution. We characterized the infrared excess spectral energy distributions of 174 cold debris disks around 546 main-sequence stars observed by both the Spitzer Infrared Spectrograph and the Multiband Imaging Photometer for Spitzer. We found a trend between the temperature of the inner edges of cold debris disks and the stellar type of the stars they orbit. This argues against the importance of strictly temperature-dependent processesmore » (e.g., non-water ice lines) in setting the dimensions of cold debris disks. Also, we found no evidence that delayed stirring causes the trend. The trend may result from outward planet migration that traces the extent of the primordial protoplanetary disk, or it may result from planet formation that halts at an orbital radius limited by the efficiency of core accretion.« less

Evolution of the Debris Cloud Generated by the Fengyun-1C Fragmentation Event

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pardini, Carmen; Anselmo, Luciano

2007-01-01

The cloud of cataloged debris produced in low earth orbit by the fragmentation of the Fengyun-1C spacecraft was propagated for 15 years, taking into account all relevant perturbations. Unfortunately, the cloud resulted to be very stable, not suffering substantial debris decay during the time span considered. The only significant short term evolution was the differential spreading of the orbital planes of the fragments, leading to the formation of a debris shell around the earth approximately 7-8 months after the breakup, and the perigee precession of the elliptical orbits. Both effects will render the shell more "isotropic" in the coming years. The immediate consequence of the Chinese anti-satellite test, carried out in an orbital regime populated by many important operational satellites, was to increase significantly the probability of collision with man-made debris. For the two Italian spacecraft launched in the first half of 2007, the collision probability with cataloged objects increased by 12% for AGILE, in equatorial orbit, and by 38% for COSMO-SkyMed 1, in sun-synchronous orbit.

Debris Disk Studies with the ngVLA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilner, David; Matthews, Brenda; Matra, Luca; Kennedy, Grant; Wyatt, Mark; Greaves, Jane

2018-01-01

We discuss the potential for the ngVLA to advance understanding of debris disks around main-sequence stars. Since the dust-producing planetesimals that replenish these disks through collisions persist only in stable regions like belts and resonances, their locations and physical properties encode essential information about the formation of exoplanetary systems and their dynamical evolution. Observations at long millimeter wavelengths can play a special role because the large grains that dominate the emission are faithful tracers of the dust-producing planetesimals, unlike small grains seen at shorter wavelengths that are rapidly redistributed by stellar radiation and winds. Sensitive observations of debris disks with the ngVLA can (1) reveal structures resulting from otherwise inaccessible planets on wide orbits, (2) test collisional models using spectral slopes to constrain mm/cm grain size distributions, and (3) for select sources, probe the water content of exocomets using the 21 cm HI line.

A deformation model of flexible, HAMR objects for accurate propagation under perturbations and the self-shadowing effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Channumsin, Sittiporn; Ceriotti, Matteo; Radice, Gianmarco

2018-02-01

A new type of space debris in near geosynchronous orbit (GEO) was recently discovered and later identified as exhibiting unique characteristics associated with high area-to-mass ratio (HAMR) objects, such as high rotation rates and high reflection properties. Observations have shown that this debris type is very sensitive to environmental disturbances, particularly solar radiation pressure, due to the fact that its motion depends on the actual effective area, orientation of that effective area, reflection properties and the area-to-mass ratio of the object is not stable over time. Previous investigations have modelled this type of debris as rigid bodies (constant area-to-mass ratios) or discrete deformed body; however, these simplifications will lead to inaccurate long term orbital predictions. This paper proposes a simple yet reliable model of a thin, deformable membrane based on multibody dynamics. The membrane is modelled as a series of flat plates, connected through joints, representing the flexibility of the membrane itself. The mass of the membrane, albeit low, is taken into account through lump masses at the joints. The attitude and orbital motion of this flexible membrane model is then propagated near GEO to predict its orbital evolution under the perturbations of solar radiation pressure, Earth's gravity field (J2), third body gravitational fields (the Sun and Moon) and self-shadowing. These results are then compared to those obtained for two rigid body models (cannonball and flat rigid plate). In addition, Monte Carlo simulations of the flexible model by varying initial attitude and deformation angle (different shape) are investigated and compared with the two rigid models (cannonball and flat rigid plate) over a period of 100 days. The numerical results demonstrate that cannonball and rigid flat plate are not appropriate to capture the true dynamical evolution of these objects, at the cost of increased computational time.

Origin and evolution of two-component debris discs and an application to the q1 Eridani system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schüppler, Christian; Krivov, Alexander V.; Löhne, Torsten; Booth, Mark; Kirchschlager, Florian; Wolf, Sebastian

2016-09-01

Many debris discs reveal a two-component structure, with an outer Kuiper-belt analogue and a warm inner component whose origin is still a matter of debate. One possibility is that warm emission stems from an `asteroid belt' closer in to the star. We consider a scenario in which a set of giant planets is formed in an initially extended planetesimal disc. These planets carve a broad gap around their orbits, splitting up the disc into the outer and the inner belts. After the gas dispersal, both belts undergo collisional evolution in a steady-state regime. This scenario is explored with detailed collisional simulations involving realistic physics to describe a long-term collisional depletion of the two-component disc. We find that the inner disc may be able to retain larger amounts of material at older ages than thought before on the basis of simplified analytic models. We show that the proposed scenario is consistent with a suite of thermal emission and scattered light observational data for a bright two-temperature debris disc around a nearby solar-type star q1 Eridani. This implies a Solar system-like architecture of the system, with an outer massive `Kuiper belt', an inner `asteroid belt', and a few Neptune- to Jupiter-mass planets in between.

Orbiting space debris: Dangers, measurement and mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNutt, Ross T.

1992-06-01

Space debris is a growing environmental problem. Accumulation of objects in earth orbit threatens space systems through the possibility of collisions and runaway debris multiplication. The amount of debris in orbit is uncertain due to the lack of information on the population of debris between 1 and 10 centimeters diameter. Collisions with debris even smaller than 1 cm can be catastrophic due to the high orbital velocities involved. Research efforts are under way at NASA, United States Space Command and the Air Force Phillips Laboratory to detect and catalog the debris population in near-earth space. Current international and national laws are inadequate to control the proliferation of space debris. Space debris is a serious problem with large economic, military, technical and diplomatic components. Actions need to be taken now to: determine the full extent of the orbital debris problem; accurately predict the future evolution of the debris population; decide the extent of the debris mitigation procedures required; implement these policies on a global basis via an international treaty. Action must be initiated now, before the loss of critical space systems such as the space shuttle or the space station.

Evolution of a natural debris flow: In situ measurements of flow dynamics, video imagery, and terrestrial laser scanning

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCoy, S.W.; Kean, J.W.; Coe, J.A.; Staley, D.M.; Wasklewicz, T.A.; Tucker, G.E.

2010-01-01

Many theoretical and laboratory studies have been undertaken to understand debris-flow processes and their associated hazards. However, complete and quantitative data sets from natural debris flows needed for confirmation of these results are limited. We used a novel combination of in situ measurements of debris-flow dynamics, video imagery, and pre- and postflow 2-cm-resolution digital terrain models to study a natural debris-flow event. Our field data constrain the initial and final reach morphology and key flow dynamics. The observed event consisted of multiple surges, each with clear variation of flow properties along the length of the surge. Steep, highly resistant, surge fronts of coarse-grained material without measurable pore-fluid pressure were pushed along by relatively fine-grained and water-rich tails that had a wide range of pore-fluid pressures (some two times greater than hydrostatic). Surges with larger nonequilibrium pore-fluid pressures had longer travel distances. A wide range of travel distances from different surges of similar size indicates that dynamic flow properties are of equal or greater importance than channel properties in determining where a particular surge will stop. Progressive vertical accretion of multiple surges generated the total thickness of mapped debris-flow deposits; nevertheless, deposits had massive, vertically unstratified sedimentological textures. ?? 2010 Geological Society of America.

Fossil debris-covered glaciers in Demanda Sierra (Northern Spain): geomorphological research and 10Be cosmogenic exposure dating

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Fernández, José M.; Palacios, David; Andrés, Nuria; Schimmelpfennig, Irene; Gómez-Villar, Amelia; Santos-González, Javier; Álvarez-Martínez, Javier; Arnáez, José; Úbeda, José; García-Ruiz, José M.

2017-04-01

The Demanda Sierra, at altitudes above 2000 m.a.s.l., is located in the Iberian Range (Northern Iberian Peninsula, 42°15' N). The main divide extends from west to east between 3°25' W and 2°52' W. The most relevant evidences of Pleistocene glaciation are found in small cirques above 1800 m a.s.l., most of them in the northern face. These cirques hosted small-size glaciers with ice tongues <1 km in length that deposited moraines composed of angular blocks with scarce fine matrix. Several rock glaciers were identified in previous papers. Nevertheless, recent fieldwork suggests the reinterpretation of the large chaotic angular block accumulations without fine matrix as fossil debris-covered glaciers. To elucidate such a complex issue, two north-facing cirques in the Mencilla Peak (42°11'11" N, 3°18'45" W; 1932 m a.s.l.) and a southeast-facing cirque in the San Lorenzo Peak (42°14'28" N, 2°58'31" W; 2261 m a.s.l.) have been selected as they host similar block accumulations. The aim of this paper is: 1) to identify the debris-covered glacier features in such block accumulations; 2) to present the chronology obtained for the first time from debris-covered glaciers and to put them in the context of deglaciation in the Iberian Range and in the Iberian Peninsula and the Mediterranean mountains; 3) to analyze the glacier evolution during the deglaciation. To carry out these objectives, different methodological approaches and techniques have been applied: 1) detailed geomorphological mapping at 1:1000 scale over stereoscopic pairs, high-resolution LIDAR Digital Elevation Models and fieldwork to identify glacial and debris-covered glacier features (e.g. moraines, ridges, furrows, etc.); 2) Cosmogenic Exposure Dating (CED), 10Be, applied to 18 quartzite samples taken from stable boulders over moraine ridges or fossil debris-covered glaciers; 3) glacier reconstruction for modelling the glacier evolution at different stages; 4) Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) calculation. The results obtained show that the large chaotic block accumulations are fossil debris-covered glaciers given the numerous longitudinal ridges and furrows. These fossil debris-covered glaciers consist of a relatively thin debris mantle (<2 m thick), deposited over the residual ice masses, which partially cover the adjacent moraines. The CED analysis indicated a minimum age of 17.8 ± 2.2 ka for the outermost moraine in the San Lorenzo cirque, attributed to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) or even prior glacial stages, and an age of 16.5 ka (GS-2a stadial, Oldest Dryas) for small moraines located close to the cirque headwall. Thus, the debris-covered glacier developed in the intense deglaciation occurred between the LGM and the Oldest Dryas. The isolating effect of the debris mantle over the ice masses enabled them to endure for thousands years, especially in the western Mencilla Cirque, which melted during the Holocene Thermal Optimum, favored by its northern aspect, whereas the San Lorenzo debris-covered glacier did it earlier during the Late Pleistocene. The ELAs fluctuated between 1673 and 1807 m a.s.l. (Mencilla Peak) and between 1904 and 2007 m a.s.l. (San Lorenzo Peak) within the three/four glacial stages identified in the cirques. Research funded by the projects ESPAS (CGL2015-65569_R) (MINECO/FEDER), CRYOCRISIS (CGL2012-35858), and Deglaciation (CGL2015-65813-R), Government of Spain.

Numerical Model of Channel and Aquatic Habitat Response to Sediment Pulses in Mountain Rivers of Central Idaho

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewicki, M.; Buffington, J. M.; Thurow, R. F.; Isaak, D. J.

2006-12-01

Mountain rivers in central Idaho receive pulsed sediment inputs from a variety of mass wasting processes (side-slope landslides, rockfalls, and tributary debris flows). Tributary debris flows and hyperconcentrated flows are particularly common due to winter "rain-on-snow" events and summer thunderstorms, the effects of which are amplified by frequent wildfire and resultant changes in vegetation, soil characteristics, and basin hydrology. Tributary confluences in the study area are commonly characterized by debris fans built by these repeated sediment pulses, providing long-term controls on channel slope, hydraulics and sediment transport capacity in the mainstem channel network. These long-term impacts are magnified during debris-flow events, which deliver additional sediment and wood debris to the fan and may block the mainstem river. These changes in physical conditions also influence local and downstream habitat for aquatic species, and can impact local human infrastructure (roads, bridges). Here, we conduct numerical simulations using a modified version of Cui's [2005] network routing model to examine bedload transport and debris-fan evolution in medium- sized watersheds (65-570 km2) of south-central Idaho. We test and calibrate the model using data from a series of postfire debris-flow events that occurred from 2003-4. We investigate model sensitivity to different controlling factors (location of the pulse within the stream network, volume of the pulse, and size distribution of the input material). We predict that on decadal time scales, sediment pulses cause a local coarsening of the channel bed in the vicinity of the sediment input, and a wave of downstream fining over several kilometers of the river (as long as the pulse material is not coarser than the stream bed itself). The grain-size distribution of the pulse influences its rate of erosion, the rate and magnitude of downstream fining, and the time required for system recovery. The effects of textural fining on spawning habitat depend on the size of sediment in the wave relative to that of the downstream channel; fining can improve spawning habitat availability in channels that are otherwise too coarse, or degrade habitat availability in finer-grained channels. Despite the perceived negative effects of sediment pulses, they can be important sources of gravel and wood debris, creating downstream spawning sites and productive wood-forced habitats. Field observations illustrate that opportunistic salmonids will spawn along the margins of recently deposited debris fans, emphasizing the biological value of such disturbances and the plasticity of salmonids to natural disturbances.

Effects of CubeSat Deployments in Low-Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matney, M. J.; Vavrin, A. B.; Manis, A. P.

2017-01-01

Long-term models, such as NASA's LEGEND (LEO (Low-Earth Orbit)-to-GEO (Geosynchrous Earth Orbit) Environment Debris) model, are used to make predictions about how space activities will affect the long-term evolution of the debris environment. Part of this process is to predict how spacecraft and rocket bodies will be launched and left in the environment in the future. This has usually been accomplished by repeating past launch history to simulate future launches. It was partially upon the basis of the results of such models that both national and international orbital debris mitigation guidelines - especially the "25-year rule" for post-mission disposal - were determined. The proliferation of Cubesat launches in recent years, however, has raised concerns that we are seeing a fundamental shift in how humans launch satellites into space that may alter the assumptions upon which our current mitigation guidelines are based. The large number of Cubesats, and their short lifetime and general inability to perform collision avoidance, potentially makes them an important new source of debris. The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has conducted a series of LEGEND computations to investigate the long-term effects of adding Cubesats to the environment. Several possible future scenarios were simulated to investigate the effects of the size of future Cubesat launches and the efficiency of post-mission disposal on the proliferation of catastrophic collisions over the next 200 years. These results are compared to a baseline "business-as-usual" scenario where launches are assumed to continue as in the past without major Cubesat deployments. Using these results, we make observations about the continued use of the 25-year rule and the importance of the universal application of post-mission disposal. We also discuss how the proliferation of Cubesats may affect satellite traffic at lower altitudes.

Drainage evolution in the debris avalanche deposits near Mount Saint Helens, Washington

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beach, G. L.; Dzurisin, D.

1984-01-01

The 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens was initiated by a massive rockslide-debris avalanche which completely transformed the upper 25 km of the North Fork Toutle River valley. The debris was generated by one of the largest gravitational mass movements ever recorded on Earth. Moving at an average velocity of 35 m/s, the debris avalanche buried approximately 60 sq km of terrain to an average depth of 45 m with unconsolidated, poorly sorted volcaniclastic material, all within a period of 10 minutes. Where exposed and unaltered by subsequent lahars and pyroclastic flows, the new terrain surface was characterized predominantly by hummocks, closed depressions, and the absence of an identifiable channel network. Following emplacement of the debris avalanche, a complex interrelationship of fluvial and mass wasting processes immediately began operating to return the impacted area to an equilibrium status through the removal of material (potential energy) and re-establishment of graded conditions. In an attempt to chronicle the morphologic evolution of this unique environmental setting, a systematic series of interpretative maps of several selected areas was produced. These maps, which document the rate and character of active geomorphic processes, are discussed.

Orbiting space debris: Dangers, measurement, and mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNutt, Ross T.

1992-01-01

Space debris is a growing environmental problem. Accumulation of objects in Earth orbit threatens space systems through the possibility of collisions and runaway debris multiplication. The amount of debris in orbit is uncertain due to the lack of information on the population of debris between 1 and 10 centimeters diameter. Collisions with debris even smaller than 1 cm can be catastrophic due to the high orbital velocities involved. Research efforts are under way at NASA, Unites States Space Command and the Air Force Phillips Laboratory to detect and catalog the debris population in near-Earth space. Current international and national laws are inadequate to control the proliferation of space debris. Space debris is a serious problem with large economic, military, technical, and diplomatic components. Actions need to be taken now for the following reasons: determine the full extent of the orbital debris problem; accurately predict the future evolution of the debris population; decide the extent of the debris mitigation procedures required; implement these policies on a global basis via an international treaty. Action must be initiated now, before the the loss of critical space systems such as the Space Shuttle or the Space Station.

Bacteria at glacier surfaces: microbial community structures in debris covered glaciers and cryoconites in the Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azzoni, Roberto; Franzetti, Andrea; Ambrosini, Roberto; D'Agata, Carlo; Senese, Antonella; Minora, Umberto; Tagliaferri, Ilario; Diolaiuti, Guglielmina

2014-05-01

Supraglacial debris has an important role in the glacier energy budget and has strong influence on the glacial ecosystem. Sediment derives generally from rock inputs from nesting rockwalls and are abundant and continuous at the surface of debris-covered glaciers (i.e. DCGs; glaciers where the ablation area is mainly covered by rock debris) and sparse and fine on debris-free glaciers (DFGs). Recently, evidence for significant tongue darkening on retreating debris-free glaciers has been drawing increasing attention. Fine particles, the cryoconite, are locally abundant and may form cryoconite holes that are water-filled depressions on the surface of DFGs that form when a thin layer of cryoconite is heated by the sun and melts the underlying ice. There is increasing evidence that cryoconite holes also host highly diverse microbial communities and can significantly contribute to global carbon cycle. However, there is almost no study on microbial communities of the debris cover of DCGs and there is a lack of data from the temporal evolution of the microbial communities in the cryoconites. To fill these gaps in our knowledge we characterized the supraglacial debris of two Italian DCGs and we investigated the temporal evolution of microbial communities on cryoconite holes in DFG. We used the Illumina technology to analyse the V5 and V6 hypervariable regions of the bacterial 16S rRNA gene amplified from samples collected distances from the terminus of two DCGs (Miage and Belvedere Glaciers - Western Italian Alps). Heterotrophic taxa dominated bacterial communities, whose structure changed during downwards debris transport. Organic carbon of these recently exposed substrates therefore is probably provided more by allochthonous deposition of organic matter than by primary production by autotrophic organisms. We used ARISA fingerprinting and quantitative PCR to describe the structure and the evolution of the microbial communities and to estimate the number of the total bacteria and the copy of Rubisco genes found on cryoconite holes collected on a wide Italian DFG (Forni Glacier - Central Alps). The structure of the microbial communities in cryoconite holes seem to be determined mainly by a turnover process. This work was carried out under the umbrella of the SHARE Stelvio Project which has been funded by the Lombardy Region government and managed by FLA (Lombardy Foundation for the Enviroment) and EvK2-CNR Committee.

Colliding worlds: A journey in time and space through the solar system (Farinella Prize Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marchi, S.

2017-09-01

The evolution of the interiors, surfaces, and atmospheres of solid bodies in the solar system is affected by interplanetary collisions. From Mercury to the outskirts of the solar system, collisions with leftover planetesimals -asteroids, comets and their debris- provide a primary evolutionary process. Impact craters mark this evolution and provide a diagnostic tool, which coupled with modeling and, when possible, sample analysis, allow us to unravel the ancient history of the solar system. In this prize talk, I will present a few selected cutting-edge research topics at the frontier between modeling and space exploration that without any doubt would have deeply interested the curious mind of Paolo Farinella.

Euripus Mons - Landform Evolution and Climate Constraints in Promethei Terra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Gasselt, Stephan; Kim, Jungrack; Baik, Hyun-Seob

2016-04-01

The Promethei Terra region of Mars exhibits a variety of geomorphic landforms indicative of ice-assisted creep of debris and ice, similar to features and processes found at the Martian dichotomy boundary in Deuteronilus, Protonilus and Nilosyrtis Mensae. Despite only little doubt about the fact that ice played an integral role in the formation of these features, it is still disputed if these features were formed by glacial processes, requiring precipitation of ice and snow and exhibiting glacial deformation and basal sliding, or if these landforms are a product of periglacial denudation and subject to different deformation regimes. As information about past climate conditions on Mars is sparse, the proper assessment of landform types today allows to put constraints on their environmental conditions in the past. Due to limited knowledge about the internal physical and thermal structure of these landforms, it remains impossible to unambiguously determine their origin [1]. A variety of geomorphic and model-based indicators need to be taken into account when putting constraints on their history and when trying to reconstruct their evolution. For selected features on Mars it has been shown by SHARAD radar observations that the ice content might be relatively high [2], and that some of them might be composed of pure ice, protected from sublimation by a thin debris cover. One of such examples, Euripus Mons, is a 80 km remnant feature with an associated circumferential talus deposit that shows indicators for deformation by downslope movement, i.e. debris apron morphology. Recent modelling assuming glacial deformation helped to reconstruct some internal structural properties [3]. Despite these attempts, Euripus Mons shows clear geomorphic signatures of classical periglacial denudation which do not fit into the concept of glacial-only evolution. Denudation rates as well as ages are similar to those reported from other locations on Mars for which hyperarid climate conditions were proposed [4] and where no positive radar measurements could be acquired. We here report on our observations supporting a periglacial mass wasting evolution and discuss results from numerical modelling applied to the settings of Euripus Mons. References: [1] Souness & Hubbard (2012) Progr. Phys. Gegr., 36(2), 238-261; [2] Holt et al. (2008) Science, 322, 1235-1238; [3] Parsons & Holt (2015) 44th Lun. Planet. Sci. Conf., #1840 [4] van Gasselt et al. (2011) Martian Geomorphology, Geol. Soc. London, 356, 43-67.

Active Space Debris Removal using European Modified Launch Vehicle Upper Stages Equipped with Electrodynamic Tethers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasseri, Ali S.; Emanuelli, Matteo; Raval, Siddharth; Turconi, Andrea; Becker, Cristoph

2013-08-01

During the past few years, several research programs have assessed the current state and future evolution of the Low Earth Orbit region. These studies indicate that space debris density could reach a critical level such that there will be a continuous increase in the number of debris objects, primarily driven by debris-debris collision activity known as the Kessler effect. This cascade effect can be even more significant when intact objects as dismissed rocket bodies are involved in the collision. The majority of the studies until now have highlighted the urgency for active debris removal in the next years. An Active Debris Removal System (ADRS) is a system capable of approaching the debris object through a close-range rendezvous, establishing physical connection, stabilizing its attitude and finally de-orbiting the debris object using a type of propulsion system in a controlled manoeuvre. In its previous work, this group showed that a modified Fregat (Soyuz FG's 4th stage) or Breeze-M upper stage (Proton-M) launched from Plesetsk (Russian Federation) and equipped with an electro-dynamic tether (EDT) system can be used, after an opportune inclination's change, to de-orbit a Kosmos-3M second stage rocket body while also delivering an acceptable payload to orbit. In this paper, we continue our work on the aforementioned concept, presented at the 2012 Beijing Space Sustainability Conference, by comparing its performance to ADR missions using only chemical propulsion from the upper stage for the far approach and the de-orbiting phase. We will also update the EDT model used in our previous work and highlight some of the methods for creating physical contact with the object. Moreover, we will assess this concept also with European launch vehicles (Vega and Soyuz 2-1A) to remove space debris from space. In addition, the paper will cover some economic aspects, like the cost for the launches' operator in term of payload mass' loss at the launch. The entire debris removal mission from launch to de-orbiting of the target debris object will be analysed using Analytical Graphic Inc.'s Systems Tool Kit (STK).

First results of the SONS survey: submillimetre detections of debris discs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panić, O.; Holland, W. S.; Wyatt, M. C.; Kennedy, G. M.; Matthews, B. C.; Lestrade, J. F.; Sibthorpe, B.; Greaves, J. S.; Marshall, J. P.; Phillips, N. M.; Tottle, J.

2013-10-01

New detections of debris discs at submillimetre wavelengths present highly valuable complementary information to prior observations of these sources at shorter wavelengths. Characterization of discs through spectral energy distribution modelling including the submillimetre fluxes is essential for our basic understanding of disc mass and temperature, and presents a starting point for further studies using millimetre interferometric observations. In the framework of the ongoing SCUBA-2 Observations of Nearby Stars, the instrument SCUBA-2 on the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope was used to provide measurements of 450 and 850 μm fluxes towards a large sample of nearby main-sequence stars with debris discs detected previously at shorter wavelengths. We present the first results from the ongoing survey, concerning 850 μm detections and 450 μm upper limits towards 10 stars, the majority of which are detected at submillimetre wavelengths for the first time. One, or possibly two, of these new detections is likely a background source. We fit the spectral energy distributions of the star+disc systems with a blackbody emission approach and derive characteristic disc temperatures. We use these temperatures to convert the observed fluxes to disc masses. We obtain a range of disc masses from 0.001 to 0.1 M⊕, values similar to the prior dust mass measurements towards debris discs. There is no evidence for evolution in dust mass with age on the main sequence, and indeed the upper envelope remains relatively flat at ≈0.5 M⊕ at all ages. The inferred disc masses are lower than those from disc detections around pre-main-sequence stars, which may indicate a depletion of solid mass. This may also be due to a change in disc opacity, though limited sensitivity means that it is not yet known what fraction of pre-main-sequence stars have discs with dust masses similar to debris disc levels. New, high-sensitivity detections are a path towards investigating the trends in dust mass evolution.

Evolution of a giant debris flow in the transitional mountainous region between the Tibetan Plateau and the Qinling Mountain range, Western China: Constraints from broadband seismic records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Xinghui; Li, Zhengyuan; Yu, Dan; Xu, Qiang; Fan, Junyi; Hao, Zhen; Niu, Yanping

2017-10-01

The catastrophic Sanyanyu and Luojiayu debris flows, which were induced by heavy rainfall, occurred at approximately midnight, August 7th, 2010 (Beijing time, UTC + 8) and claimed 1,765 lives. Most seismic stations located within 150 km did not detect the debris flows except for the closest seismic station, ZHQ, indicating that the seismic signals generated by the debris flows decayed rapidly. We analyzed broadband seismic signals from the ZHQ seismic station, beginning approximately 20 min before the outbreak of the Sanyanyu debris flow, to rebuild its evolution processes. Seismic signals can detect development of the Sanyanyu debris flow approximately 20 min after a heavy rain started falling in its initiation area; this time was characterized by a gradual increase in seismic amplitude accompanied by a series of spike signals that were probably generated by rock collapses within the catchment. The frequency contents and the characteristics of seismic signals before and after 23:33:15 (T1) are distinctively different, which we interpret as being generated by a large quantity of flowing material entering the main channel, marking the formation of the Sanyanyu debris flow. We attribute seismic amplitude increases between 23:33:15 (T1) and 23:34:26 (T2) and between 23:35:40 (T3) and 23:36:49 (T4) to entrainment of the deposit material after initiation of the debris flow and to its flow through a colluvial deposit area, respectively. The main frequency band broadening of seismic signals after 23:37:30 (T5) is believed to have been induced by impacts between the flowing material and check dams.

Inside supernova 1987A

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccray, Richard; Shull, J. Michael; Sutherland, Peter

1987-01-01

The future evolution of the electromagnetic spectrum of the supernova 1987A is considered. It is shown that conventional models for supernova explosions predict that within several months a spectacular display of X-rays and UV emission lines will be seen from SN 1987A as the envelope expands to reveal the inner debris of the explosion. Two likely scenarios are considered: first, that the debris produces strong gamma rays from radioactive Co-56, and second, that an X-ray-emitting pulsar exists at the center. It is also predicted that a bright infrared echo will soon appear as a result of reprocessing of the optical/ultraviolet light by circumstellar grains; the luminosity of this echo can provide a sensitive test of the mass-loss history of the supernova progenitor.

Acoustic Fluidization and the Extraordinary Mobility of Sturzstroms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, G. S.; Melosh, H. J.

2002-12-01

Sturzstroms are a rare category of rock avalanche that travel vast horizontal distances with only a comparatively small vertical drop in height. Their extraordinary mobility appears to be a consequence of sustained fluid-like behavior during motion that persists even for driving stresses well below those normally associated with large rock avalanches. One mechanism with the potential for explaining this temporary increase in the mobility of rock debris is acoustic fluidization; where transient, high-frequency pressure fluctuations, generated during the initial collapse and subsequent flow of a mass of rock debris, may locally relieve overburden stresses in the rock mass and thus reduce the frictional resistance to slip between fragments. Here we will present the acoustic fluidization model for the mechanics of sturzstroms, and discuss the conditions under which this process may sustain fluid-like flow of large rock avalanches at low driving stresses. Our work has focused on developing equations for describing the temporal and spatial evolution of acoustic energy within a mass of dry rock debris. We apply this model to the specific process of large, dry rock avalanches. To solve the complex system of equations we have: (1) sought steady state solutions to investigate the circumstances under which acoustic fluidization might facilitate fluid-like motion of the debris at low driving stresses; and (2) simulated the flow of dry rock debris in the presence of acoustic vibrations using a hydrocode, to test the stability of the steady state solutions, investigate the effect of initial conditions and study the avalanche termination process. Results from our modeling work are consistent with the characteristic observations of sturzstroms on Earth. They predict that, under realistic conditions, the flow of a mass of dry rock debris can retain and regenerate enough acoustic energy to perpetuate its own motion, even at very low slope angles; thereby explaining the peculiar long-runout of large rock avalanches. Observations of fluid-like behavior of sturzstroms are supported by our modeling work. The predicted velocity profile through the acoustically fluidized rock avalanche is parabolic; the sturzstrom flows with an effective viscosity that is almost independent of depth within the rock avalanche.

A data-driven approach for modeling post-fire debris-flow volumes and their uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, Michael J.

2011-01-01

This study demonstrates the novel application of genetic programming to evolve nonlinear post-fire debris-flow volume equations from variables associated with a data-driven conceptual model of the western United States. The search space is constrained using a multi-component objective function that simultaneously minimizes root-mean squared and unit errors for the evolution of fittest equations. An optimization technique is then used to estimate the limits of nonlinear prediction uncertainty associated with the debris-flow equations. In contrast to a published multiple linear regression three-variable equation, linking basin area with slopes greater or equal to 30 percent, burn severity characterized as area burned moderate plus high, and total storm rainfall, the data-driven approach discovers many nonlinear and several dimensionally consistent equations that are unbiased and have less prediction uncertainty. Of the nonlinear equations, the best performance (lowest prediction uncertainty) is achieved when using three variables: average basin slope, total burned area, and total storm rainfall. Further reduction in uncertainty is possible for the nonlinear equations when dimensional consistency is not a priority and by subsequently applying a gradient solver to the fittest solutions. The data-driven modeling approach can be applied to nonlinear multivariate problems in all fields of study.

Simulation of debris flow events in Sicily by cellular automata model SCIDDICA_SS3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cancelliere, A.; Lupiano, V.; Peres, D. J.; Stancanelli, L.; Avolio, M.; Foti, E.; Di Gregorio, S.

2013-12-01

Debris flow models are widely used for hazard mapping or for evaluating the effectiveness of risk mitigation measures. Several models analyze the dynamics of debris flow runout solving Partial Differential Equations. In use of such models, difficulties arise in estimating kinematic geotechnical soil parameters for real phenomena. In order to overcome such difficulties, alternative semi-empirical approaches can be employed, such as macroscopic Cellular Automata (CA). In particular, for CA simulation purposes, the runout of debris flows emerges from local interactions in a dynamical system, subdivided into elementary parts, whose state evolves within a spatial and temporal discretum. The attributes of each cell (substates) describe physical characteristics. For computational reasons, the natural phenomenon is splitted into a number of elementary processes, whose proper composition makes up the CA transition function. By simultaneously applying this function to all the cells, the evolution of the phenomenon can be simulated in terms of modifications of the substates. In this study, we present an application of the macroscopic CA semi-empirical model SCIDDICA_SS3 to the Peloritani Mountains area in Sicily island, Italy. The model was applied using detailed data from the 1 October 2009 debris flow event, which was triggered by a rainfall event of about 250 mm falling in 9 hours, that caused the death of 37 persons. This region is characterized by river valleys with large hillslope angles (30°-60°), catchment basins of small extensions (0.5-12 km2) and soil composed by metamorphic material, which is easy to be eroded. CA usage implies a calibration phase, that identifies an optimal set of parameters capable of adequately play back the considered case, and a validation phase, that tests the model on a sufficient (and different) number of cases similar in terms of physical and geomorphological properties. The performance of the model can be measured in terms of a fitness function that compares the observed landslide with the simulated one. This function returns values from 0 (completely wrong simulation) to 1 (perfect match); values greater than 0.7 are considered acceptable. The adopted version SCIDDICA_SS3 was calibrated on debris-flows occurred in Torrente Sopra Urno, that have caused most of the damage in Giampilieri town. Other 5 events, occurred in the same day and on the same area, were used for validation with fitness function ranging from 0.72 to 0.78. Simulations show a good capability of the model to describe the runout of debris in such highly-urbanized area, according to several performance indices. The calibrated parameters may be reasonably used to simulate debris flow runout in the nearby catchments for predictive purposes, aimed at risk assessment. Acknowledgements: This research was funded by the Italian Education, University and Research Ministry (MIUR), PON Project No. 01_01503 'Integrated Systems for Hydrogeological Risk Monitoring, Early Warning and Mitigation Along the Main Lifelines', CUP B31H11000370005

A New M Dwarf Debris Disk Candidate in a Young Moving Group Discovered with Disk Detective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Silverberg, Steven M.; Kuchner, Marc J.; Wisniewski, John P.; Gagne, Jonathan; Bans, Alissa S.; Bhattacharjee, Shambo; Currie, Thayne R.; Debes, John R.; Biggs, Joseph R; Bosch, Milton

2016-01-01

We used the Disk Detective citizen science project and the BANYAN II Bayesian analysis tool to identify a new candidate member of a nearby young association with infrared excess. WISE J080822.18-644357.3, an M5.5-type debris disk system with significant excess at both 12 and 22 microns, is a likely member (approx.90% BANYAN II probability) of the approx.45 Myr old Carina association. Since this would be the oldest M dwarf debris disk detected in a moving group, this discovery could be an important constraint on our understanding of M dwarf debris disk evolution.

An efficient algorithm for orbital evolution of space debris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdel-Aziz, Y.; Abd El-Salam, F.

More than four decades of space exploration have led to accumulation of significant quantities of debris around the Earth. These objects range in size from a tiny piece of junk to a large inoperable satellite, although these objects that have small size they have high are-to-mass ratios, and consequently their orbits are strongly influenced by solar radiation pressure and atmospheric drag. So the increasing population of space debris object in the LEO, MEO and GEO present growing with time, serious hazard for the survival of operating spacecrafts, particularly satellites and astronomical observatories. Since the average collision velocity between any spacecraft orbiting in the LOE and debris objects is about 10 km/s and about 3 km/s in the GEO. Space debris may significantly disturb any satellite operations or cause catastrophic damage to a spacecraft itself. Applying different shielding techniques spacecraft my be protected against impacts of space debris with diameters smaller than 1 cm. For larger debris objects, only one effective method to avoid catastrophic consequence of collision is a manoeuvre that will change the spacecraft orbit. The necessary conditions in this case is to evaluate and predict future positions of the spacecraft and space debris with sufficient accuray. Numerical integration of equations of motion are used until now. Existing analytical methods can solve this problem only with low accuracy. Difficulties are caused mainly by the lack of satisfying analytical solution of the resonance problem for geosynchronous orbit as well as from the lack of efficient analytical theory combining luni-solar perturbation and solar radiation pressure with geopotential attraction. Numerical integration is time consuming in some cases, and then for qualitative analysis of the satellite's and debris's motion it is necessary to apply analytical solution. This is the reason for searching for an accurate model to evaluate the orbital position of the operating satellites and space debris. The present paper developes a second order theory of perturbations (in the sense of the Hori-Lie perturbation method), that include the geopotential effect, luni-solar perturbations, solar radiation pressure and atmospheric drag. Resonance and very long period perturbations are modeled with the use of semi-secular terms for a short time span predictions. We present a comparision of our analytical solution with numerical integration of motion for chosen artificial satellites at (Low, MEO, GEO), also for different spase debris objets with different are-to-mass ratios showing good accuracy of the theory.

The permeability evolution of tuffisites and outgassing from dense rhyolitic magma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heap, M. J.; Tuffen, H.; Wadsworth, F. B.; Reuschlé, T.; Castro, J. M.; Schipper, C. I.

2017-12-01

Recent observations of rhyolitic lava effusion from eruptions in Chile indicate that simultaneous pyroclastic venting facilitates outgassing. Venting from conduit-plugging lava domes is pulsatory and occurs through shallow fracture networks that deliver pyroclastic debris and exsolved gases to the surface. However, these fractures become blocked as the particulate fracture infill sinters viscously, thus drastically reducing permeability. Tuffisites, fossilized debris-filled fractures of this venting process, are abundant in pyroclastic material ejected during hybrid explosive-effusive activity. Dense tuffisite-hosting obsidian bombs ejected from Volcán Chaitén (Chile) in 2008 afford an opportunity to better understand the permeability evolution of tuffisites within low-permeability conduit plugs, wherein gas mobility is reliant upon fracture pathways. We use laboratory measurements of the permeability and porosity of tuffisites that preserve different degrees of sintering, combined with a grainsize-based sintering model and constraints on pressure-time paths from H2O diffusion, to place first-order constraints on tuffisite permeability evolution. Inferred timescales of sintering-driven tuffisite compaction and permeability loss, spanning minutes to hours, coincide with observed vent pulsations during hybrid rhyolitic activity and, more broadly, timescales of pressurization accompanying silicic lava dome extrusion. We therefore conclude that sintering exerts a first-order control on fracture-assisted outgassing from low-permeability, conduit-plugging silicic magma.

Debris-carrying camouflage among diverse lineages of Cretaceous insects.

PubMed

Wang, Bo; Xia, Fangyuan; Engel, Michael S; Perrichot, Vincent; Shi, Gongle; Zhang, Haichun; Chen, Jun; Jarzembowski, Edmund A; Wappler, Torsten; Rust, Jes

2016-06-01

Insects have evolved diverse methods of camouflage that have played an important role in their evolutionary success. Debris-carrying, a behavior of actively harvesting and carrying exogenous materials, is among the most fascinating and complex behaviors because it requires not only an ability to recognize, collect, and carry materials but also evolutionary adaptations in related morphological characteristics. However, the fossil record of such behavior is extremely scarce, and only a single Mesozoic example from Spanish amber has been recorded; therefore, little is known about the early evolution of this complicated behavior and its underlying anatomy. We report a diverse insect assemblage of exceptionally preserved debris carriers from Cretaceous Burmese, French, and Lebanese ambers, including the earliest known chrysopoid larvae (green lacewings), myrmeleontoid larvae (split-footed lacewings and owlflies), and reduviids (assassin bugs). These ancient insects used a variety of debris material, including insect exoskeletons, sand grains, soil dust, leaf trichomes of gleicheniacean ferns, wood fibers, and other vegetal debris. They convergently evolved their debris-carrying behavior through multiple pathways, which expressed a high degree of evolutionary plasticity. We demonstrate that the behavioral repertoire, which is associated with considerable morphological adaptations, was already widespread among insects by at least the Mid-Cretaceous. Together with the previously known Spanish specimen, these fossils are the oldest direct evidence of camouflaging behavior in the fossil record. Our findings provide a novel insight into early evolution of camouflage in insects and ancient ecological associations among plants and insects.

LightForce Photon-pressure Collision Avoidance: Efficiency Analysis in the Current Debris Environment and Long-Term Simulation Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Fan Y.; Nelson, Bron; Carlino, Roberto; Perez, Andres D.; Faber, Nicolas; Henze, Chris; Karacahoglu, Arif G.; O'Toole, Conor; Swenson, Jason; Stupl, Jan

2015-01-01

This work provides an efficiency analysis of the LightForce space debris collision avoidance scheme in the current debris environment and describes a simulation approach to assess its impact on the long-term evolution of the space debris environment. LightForce aims to provide just-in-time collision avoidance by utilizing photon pressure from ground-based industrial lasers. These ground stations impart minimal accelerations to increase the miss distance for a predicted conjunction between two objects. In the first part of this paper we will present research that investigates the short-term effect of a few systems consisting of 10kW class lasers directed by 1.5 m diameter telescopes using adaptive optics. The results found such a network of ground stations to mitigate more than 85 percent of conjunctions and could lower the expected number of collisions in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) by an order of magnitude. While these are impressive numbers that indicate LightForce's utility in the short-term, the remaining 15 percent of possible collisions contain (among others) conjunctions between two massive objects that would add large amount of debris if they collide. Still, conjunctions between massive objects and smaller objects can be mitigated. Hence we choose to expand the capabilities of the simulation software to investigate the overall effect of a network of LightForce stations on the long-term debris evolution. In the second part of this paper, we will present the planed simulation approach for that effort.

Basic processes and factors determining the evolution of collapse sinkholes: a sensitivity study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romanov, Douchko; Kaufmann, Georg

2017-04-01

Collapse sinkholes appear as closed depressions at the surface. The origin of these karst features is related to the continuous dissolution of the soluble rock caused by a focussed sub-surface flow. Water flowing along a preferential pathway through fissures and fractures within the phreatic part of a karst aquifer is able to dissolve the rock (limestone, gypsum, anhydrite). With time, the dissolved void volume increases and part of the ceiling above the stream can become unstable, collapses, and accumulates as debris in the flow path. The debris partially blocks the flow and thus activates new pathways. Because of the low compaction of the debris (high hydraulic conductivity), the flow and the dissolution rates within this crushed zone remain high. This allows a relatively fast dissolutional and erosional removal of the crushed material and the development of new empty voids. The void volume expands upwards towards the surface until a collapse sinkhole is formed. The collapse sinkholes exhibit a large variety of shapes (cylindrical, cone-, bowl-shaped), depths (from few to few hundred meters) and diameters (meters up to hundreds of meters). Two major processes are responsible for this diversity: a) the karst evolution of the aquifer - responsible for the dissolutional and erosional removal of material; b) the mechanical evolution of the host rock and the existence of structural features, faults for example, which determine the stability and the magnitude of the subsequent collapses. In this work we demonstrate the influence of the host rock type, the hydrological and geological boundary conditions, the chemical composition of the flowing water, and the geometry and the scale of the crushed zone, on the location and the evolution of the growing sinkhole. We demonstrate the ability of the karst evolution models to explain, at least qualitatively, the growth and the morphology of the collapse sinkholes and to roughly predict their shape and location. Implementing simple rules that describe the mechanical collapse, we come to the conclusion that a complete quantitative and qualitative description of a collapse sinkhole is possible, but for this it is necessary to take into account also the mechanical properties of the rock and the processes determining the mechanics of the collapses.

Analysis of the Herschel DEBRIS Sun-like star sample

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sibthorpe, B.; Kennedy, G. M.; Wyatt, M. C.; Lestrade, J.-F.; Greaves, J. S.; Matthews, B. C.; Duchêne, G.

2018-04-01

This paper presents a study of circumstellar debris around Sun-like stars using data from the Herschel DEBRIS Key Programme. DEBRIS is an unbiased survey comprising the nearest ˜90 stars of each spectral type A-M. Analysis of the 275 F-K stars shows that excess emission from a debris disc was detected around 47 stars, giving a detection rate of 17.1^{+2.6}_{-2.3} per cent, with lower rates for later spectral types. For each target a blackbody spectrum was fitted to the dust emission to determine its fractional luminosity and temperature. The derived underlying distribution of fractional luminosity versus blackbody radius in the population showed that most detected discs are concentrated at f ˜ 10-5 and at temperatures corresponding to blackbody radii 7-40 au, which scales to ˜40 au for realistic dust properties (similar to the current Kuiper belt). Two outlying populations are also evident; five stars have exceptionally bright emission ( f > 5 × 10-5), and one has unusually hot dust <4 au. The excess emission distributions at all wavelengths were fitted with a steady-state evolution model, showing that these are compatible with all stars being born with a narrow belt that then undergoes collisional grinding. However, the model cannot explain the hot dust systems - likely originating in transient events - and bright emission systems - arising potentially from atypically massive discs or recent stirring. The emission from the present-day Kuiper belt is predicted to be close to the median of the population, suggesting that half of stars have either depleted their Kuiper belts (similar to the Solar system) or had a lower planetesimal formation efficiency.

An important erosion process on steep burnt hillslopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langhans, Christoph; Nyman, Petter; Noske, Philip; Lane, Patrick; Sheridan, Gary

2016-04-01

Steep forested hillslopes often display a high degree of armouring where diffusive erosion processes preferentially remove the fine fraction of the surface soil. High infiltration capacities, hydraulic resistance to overland flow and physical anchoring by cover plants and litter mean that even the most extreme rainfall events usually do not erode the armouring substantially. We argue that fire (wild or planned) is essential to the mobilization and transport of the armouring by increasing the rates of overland flow and decreasing trapping opportunities. We present evidence of the types of erosion that lead to the stripping of the surface armouring using post-event surveys and high-rate overland flow experiments. The type of erosion depends on the relative abundance of non-cohesive surface material to overland flow, but we found that a particular type of transport dominates that has no representation in current erosion models: On steep slopes overland flow can lead to incipient motion of individual stones that transfer their momentum to other stones leading to a rapid mobilization of the whole non-cohesive, armoured surface layer. Once in motion, the layer quickly separates out into a granular flow front and liquefied body, akin to debris flows in channels. Depending on the size of the event, these hillslope debris flows (HDF) either get trapped or enter into the channel, stripping the hillslope of most armouring on their way. They provide channels with the material and shear stress needed to erode into the channel bed, increasing the risk of channel debris flows. We present a simple physical model of HDF initiation, movement, and possible re-mobilization on hillslopes that was derived from debris flow theory. Understanding this process, its frequency, and magnitude are important for assessing the role of fire in landscape evolution and risk to humans through debris flow impacts.

Laboratory study of collisionless coupling between explosive debris plasma and magnetized ambient plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bondarenko, A. S.; Schaeffer, D. B.; Everson, E. T.; Clark, S. E.; Lee, B. R.; Constantin, C. G.; Vincena, S.; Van Compernolle, B.; Tripathi, S. K. P.; Winske, D.; Niemann, C.

2017-08-01

The explosive expansion of a localized plasma cloud into a relatively tenuous, magnetized, ambient plasma characterizes a variety of astrophysical and space phenomena. In these rarified environments, collisionless electromagnetic processes rather than Coulomb collisions typically mediate the transfer of momentum and energy from the expanding "debris" plasma to the surrounding ambient plasma. In an effort to better understand the detailed physics of collisionless coupling mechanisms, compliment in situ measurements of space phenomena, and provide validation of previous computational and theoretical work, the present research jointly utilizes the Large Plasma Device and the Raptor laser facility at the University of California, Los Angeles to study the super-Alfvénic, quasi-perpendicular expansion of laser-produced carbon (C) and hydrogen (H) debris plasma through preformed, magnetized helium (He) ambient plasma via a variety of diagnostics, including emission spectroscopy, wavelength-filtered imaging, and a magnetic flux probe. Doppler shifts detected in a He1+ ion spectral line indicate that the ambient ions initially accelerate transverse to both the debris plasma flow and the background magnetic field. A qualitative analysis in the framework of a "hybrid" plasma model (kinetic ions and inertia-less fluid electrons) demonstrates that the ambient ion trajectories are consistent with the large-scale laminar electric field expected to develop due to the expanding debris. In particular, the transverse ambient ion motion provides direct evidence of Larmor coupling, a collisionless momentum exchange mechanism that has received extensive theoretical and numerical investigation. In order to quantitatively evaluate the observed Doppler shifts, a custom simulation utilizing a detailed model of the laser-produced debris plasma evolution calculates the laminar electric field and computes the initial response of a distribution of ambient test ions. A synthetic Doppler-shifted spectrum constructed from the simulated test ion velocities excellently reproduces the experimental measurements, verifying that the observed ambient ion motion corresponds to collisionless coupling through the laminar electric field.

Radar evidence for ice in lobate debris aprons in the mid-northern latitudes of Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plaut, Jeffrey J.; Safaeinili, Ali; Holt, John W.; Phillips, Roger J.; Head, James W.; Seu, Roberto; Putzig, Nathaniel E.; Frigeri, Alessandro

2009-01-01

Subsurface radar sounding data indicate that lobate debris aprons found in Deuteronilus Mensae in the mid-northern latitudes of Mars are composed predominantly of water ice. The position in time delay and the relatively low amount of signal loss of the apparent basal reflectors below the debris aprons indicate that aprons contain only a minor component of lithic material. The current presence of large ice masses at these latitudes has important implications for the climate evolution of Mars, and for future targets for in situ exploration.

Two populations and models of gamma ray bursts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Katz, J. I.

1993-01-01

Gamma-ray burst statistics are best explained by a source population at cosmological distances, while spectroscopy and intensity histories of some individual bursts imply an origin on Galactic neutron stars. To resolve this inconsistency I suggest the presence of two populations, one at cosmological distances and the other Galactic. I build on ideas of Shemi and Piran (1990) and of Rees and Mesozaros (1992) involving the interaction of fireball debris with surrounding clouds to explain the observed intensity histories in bursts at cosmological distances. The distances to the Galactic population are undetermined because they are too few to affect the statistics of intensity and direction; I explain them as resulting from magnetic reconnection in neutron star magnetospheres. An appendix describes the late evolution of the debris as a relativistic blast wave.

Ejecta cloud from the AIDA space project kinetic impact on the secondary of a binary asteroid: I. mechanical environment and dynamical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Yang; Michel, Patrick; Schwartz, Stephen R.; Naidu, Shantanu P.; Benner, Lance A. M.

2017-01-01

An understanding of the post-impact dynamics of ejecta clouds are crucial to the planning of a kinetic impact mission to an asteroid, and also has great implications for the history of planetary formation. The purpose of this article is to track the evolution of ejecta produced by AIDA mission, which targets for kinetic impact the secondary of near-Earth binary asteroid (65803) Didymos on 2022, and to feedback essential informations to AIDA's ongoing phase-A study. We present a detailed dynamic model for the simulation of an ejecta cloud from a binary asteroid that synthesizes all relevant forces based on a previous analysis of the mechanical environment. We apply our method to gain insight into the expected response of Didymos to the AIDA impact, including the subsequent evolution of debris and dust. The crater scaling relations from laboratory experiments are employed to approximate the distributions of ejecta mass and launching speed. The size distribution of fragments is modeled with a power law fitted from observations of real asteroid surface. A full-scale demonstration is simulated using parameters specified by the mission. We report the results of the simulation, which include the computed spread of the ejecta cloud and the recorded history of ejecta accretion and escape. The violent period of the ejecta evolution is found to be short, and is followed by a stage where the remaining ejecta is gradually cleared. Solar radiation pressure proves to be efficient in cleaning dust-size ejecta, and the simulation results after two weeks shows that large debris on polar orbits (perpendicular to the binary orbital plane) has a survival advantage over smaller ejecta and ejecta that keeps to low latitudes.

Quaternary deposits and landscape evolution of the central Blue Ridge of Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eaton, L. Scott; Morgan, Benjamin A.; Kochel, R. Craig; Howard, Alan D.

2003-01-01

A catastrophic storm that struck the central Virginia Blue Ridge Mountains in June 1995 delivered over 775 mm (30.5 in) of rain in 16 h. The deluge triggered more than 1000 slope failures; and stream channels and debris fans were deeply incised, exposing the stratigraphy of earlier mass movement and fluvial deposits. The synthesis of data obtained from detailed pollen studies and 39 radiometrically dated surficial deposits in the Rapidan basin gives new insights into Quaternary climatic change and landscape evolution of the central Blue Ridge Mountains.The oldest depositional landforms in the study area are fluvial terraces. Their deposits have weathering characteristics similar to both early Pleistocene and late Tertiary terrace surfaces located near the Fall Zone of Virginia. Terraces of similar ages are also present in nearby basins and suggest regional incision of streams in the area since early Pleistocene–late Tertiary time. The oldest debris-flow deposits in the study area are much older than Wisconsinan glaciation as indicated by 2.5YR colors, thick argillic horizons, and fully disintegrated granitic cobbles. Radiocarbon dating indicates that debris flow activity since 25,000 YBP has recurred, on average, at least every 2500 years. The presence of stratified slope deposits, emplaced from 27,410 through 15,800 YBP, indicates hillslope stripping and reduced vegetation cover on upland slopes during the Wisconsinan glacial maximum.Regolith generated from mechanical weathering during the Pleistocene collected in low-order stream channels and was episodically delivered to the valley floor by debris flows. Debris fans prograded onto flood plains during the late Pleistocene but have been incised by Holocene stream entrenchment. The fan incision allows Holocene debris flows to largely bypass many of the higher elevation debris fan surfaces and deposit onto the topographically lower surfaces. These episodic, high-magnitude storm events are responsible for transporting approximately half of the sediment from high gradient, low-order drainage basins to debris fans and flood plains.

An enhanced temperature index model for debris-covered glaciers accounting for thickness effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carenzo, M.; Pellicciotti, F.; Mabillard, J.; Reid, T.; Brock, B. W.

2016-08-01

Debris-covered glaciers are increasingly studied because it is assumed that debris cover extent and thickness could increase in a warming climate, with more regular rockfalls from the surrounding slopes and more englacial melt-out material. Debris energy-balance models have been developed to account for the melt rate enhancement/reduction due to a thin/thick debris layer, respectively. However, such models require a large amount of input data that are not often available, especially in remote mountain areas such as the Himalaya, and can be difficult to extrapolate. Due to their lower data requirements, empirical models have been used extensively in clean glacier melt modelling. For debris-covered glaciers, however, they generally simplify the debris effect by using a single melt-reduction factor which does not account for the influence of varying debris thickness on melt and prescribe a constant reduction for the entire melt across a glacier. In this paper, we present a new temperature-index model that accounts for debris thickness in the computation of melt rates at the debris-ice interface. The model empirical parameters are optimized at the point scale for varying debris thicknesses against melt rates simulated by a physically-based debris energy balance model. The latter is validated against ablation stake readings and surface temperature measurements. Each parameter is then related to a plausible set of debris thickness values to provide a general and transferable parameterization. We develop the model on Miage Glacier, Italy, and then test its transferability on Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland. The performance of the new debris temperature-index (DETI) model in simulating the glacier melt rate at the point scale is comparable to the one of the physically based approach, and the definition of model parameters as a function of debris thickness allows the simulation of the nonlinear relationship of melt rate to debris thickness, summarised by the Østrem curve. Its large number of parameters might be a limitation, but we show that the model is transferable in time and space to a second glacier with little loss of performance. We thus suggest that the new DETI model can be included in continuous mass balance models of debris-covered glaciers, because of its limited data requirements. As such, we expect its application to lead to an improvement in simulations of the debris-covered glacier response to climate in comparison with models that simply recalibrate empirical parameters to prescribe a constant across glacier reduction in melt.

An enhanced temperature index model for debris-covered glaciers accounting for thickness effect.

PubMed

Carenzo, M; Pellicciotti, F; Mabillard, J; Reid, T; Brock, B W

2016-08-01

Debris-covered glaciers are increasingly studied because it is assumed that debris cover extent and thickness could increase in a warming climate, with more regular rockfalls from the surrounding slopes and more englacial melt-out material. Debris energy-balance models have been developed to account for the melt rate enhancement/reduction due to a thin/thick debris layer, respectively. However, such models require a large amount of input data that are not often available, especially in remote mountain areas such as the Himalaya, and can be difficult to extrapolate. Due to their lower data requirements, empirical models have been used extensively in clean glacier melt modelling. For debris-covered glaciers, however, they generally simplify the debris effect by using a single melt-reduction factor which does not account for the influence of varying debris thickness on melt and prescribe a constant reduction for the entire melt across a glacier. In this paper, we present a new temperature-index model that accounts for debris thickness in the computation of melt rates at the debris-ice interface. The model empirical parameters are optimized at the point scale for varying debris thicknesses against melt rates simulated by a physically-based debris energy balance model. The latter is validated against ablation stake readings and surface temperature measurements. Each parameter is then related to a plausible set of debris thickness values to provide a general and transferable parameterization. We develop the model on Miage Glacier, Italy, and then test its transferability on Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland. The performance of the new debris temperature-index (DETI) model in simulating the glacier melt rate at the point scale is comparable to the one of the physically based approach, and the definition of model parameters as a function of debris thickness allows the simulation of the nonlinear relationship of melt rate to debris thickness, summarised by the Østrem curve. Its large number of parameters might be a limitation, but we show that the model is transferable in time and space to a second glacier with little loss of performance. We thus suggest that the new DETI model can be included in continuous mass balance models of debris-covered glaciers, because of its limited data requirements. As such, we expect its application to lead to an improvement in simulations of the debris-covered glacier response to climate in comparison with models that simply recalibrate empirical parameters to prescribe a constant across glacier reduction in melt.

Hillslope response to knickpoint migration in the Southern Appalachians: Implications for the evolution of post-orogenic landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wegmann, S.F.G.; Franke, K.L.; Hughes, S.; Lewis, R.Q.; Lyons, N.; Paris, P.; Ross, K.; Bauer, J.B.; Witt, A.C.

2011-01-01

The southern Appalachians represent a landscape characterized by locally high topographic relief, steep slopes, and frequent mass movement in the absence of significant tectonic forcing for at least the last 200 Ma. The fundamental processes responsible for landscape evolution in a post-orogenic landscape remain enigmatic. The non-glaciated Cullasaja River basin of south-western North Carolina, with uniform lithology, frequent debris flows, and the availability of high-resolution airborne lidar DEMs, is an ideal natural setting to study landscape evolution in a post-orogenic landscape through the lens of hillslope-channel coupling. This investigation is limited to channels with upslope contributing areas >2.7 km2, a conservative estimate of the transition from fluvial to debris-flow dominated channel processes. Values of normalized hypsometry, hypsometric integral, and mean slope vs elevation are used for 14 tributary basins and the Cullasaja basin as a whole to characterize landscape evolution following upstream knickpoint migration. Results highlight the existence of a transient spatial relationship between knickpoints present along the fluvial network of the Cullasaja basin and adjacent hillslopes. Metrics of topography (relief, slope gradient) and hillslope activity (landslide frequency) exhibit significant downstream increases below the current position of major knickpoints. The transient effect of knickpoint-driven channel incision on basin hillslopes is captured by measuring the relief, mean slope steepness, and mass movement frequency of tributary basins and comparing these results with the distance from major knickpoints along the Cullasaja River. A conceptual model of area-elevation and slope distributions is presented that may be representative of post-orogenic landscape evolution in analogous geologic settings. Importantly, the model explains how knickpoint migration and channel- hillslope coupling is an important factor in tectonically-inactive (i.e. post-orogenic) orogens for the maintenance of significant relief, steep slopes, and weathering-limited hillslopes. ?? 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An Overview of NASA's Oribital Debris Environment Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matney, Mark

2010-01-01

Using updated measurement data, analysis tools, and modeling techniques; the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has created a new Orbital Debris Environment Model. This model extends the coverage of orbital debris flux throughout the Earth orbit environment, and includes information on the mass density of the debris as well as the uncertainties in the model environment. This paper will give an overview of this model and its implications for spacecraft risk analysis.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Genda, H.; Kobayashi, H.; Kokubo, E., E-mail: genda@elsi.jp

In our solar system, Mars-sized protoplanets frequently collided with each other during the last stage of terrestrial planet formation, called the giant impact stage. Giant impacts eject a large amount of material from the colliding protoplanets into the terrestrial planet region, which may form debris disks with observable infrared excesses. Indeed, tens of warm debris disks around young solar-type stars have been observed. Here we quantitatively estimate the total mass of ejected materials during the giant impact stages. We found that ∼0.4 times the Earth’s mass is ejected in total throughout the giant impact stage. Ejected materials are ground down bymore » collisional cascade until micron-sized grains are blown out by radiation pressure. The depletion timescale of these ejected materials is determined primarily by the mass of the largest body among them. We conducted high-resolution simulations of giant impacts to accurately obtain the mass of the largest ejected body. We then calculated the evolution of the debris disks produced by a series of giant impacts and depleted by collisional cascades to obtain the infrared excess evolution of the debris disks. We found that the infrared excess is almost always higher than the stellar infrared flux throughout the giant impact stage (∼100 Myr) and is sometimes ∼10 times higher immediately after a giant impact. Therefore, giant impact stages would explain the infrared excess from most observed warm debris disks. The observed fraction of stars with warm debris disks indicates that the formation probability of our solar-system-like terrestrial planets is approximately 10%.« less

Millimeter Studies of Nearby Debris Disks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacGregor, Meredith A.

2017-01-01

At least 20% of nearby main sequence stars are known to be surrounded by disks of dusty material resulting from the collisional erosion of planetesimals, larger bodies similar to asteroids and comets in our own Solar System. Since the dust-producing planetesimals are expected to persist in stable regions like belts and resonances, the locations, morphologies, and physical properties of dust in these ‘debris disks’ provide probes of planet formation and subsequent dynamical evolution. Observations at millimeter wavelengths are especially critical to our understanding of these systems, since the large grains that dominate emission at these long wavelengths do not travel far from their origin and therefore reliably trace the underlying planetesimal distribution. The newly upgraded capabilities of millimeter interferometers like ALMA are providing us with the opportunity to image these disks with unprecedented sensitivity and resolution. In this dissertation talk, I will present my ongoing work, which uses observations of the angularly resolved brightness distribution and the spectral dependence of the flux density to constrain both the structure and grain size distribution of a sample of nearby debris disks. I will present constraints on the position, width, surface density gradient, and any asymmetric structure of several debris disks (including Epsilon Eridani, Tau Ceti, and Fomalhaut) determined from ALMA and SMA observations. In addition, I will present the results of a survey using the VLA and ATCA to measure the long wavelength spectral index and thus the grain size distribution of fifteen debris disks. Together these results provide a foundation to investigate the dynamical evolution of planetary systems through multi-wavelength observations of debris disks.

ALMA Observations of the Molecular Gas in the Debris Disk of the 30 Myr Old Star HD 21997

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kospal, A.; Moor, A.; Juhasz, A.; Abraham, P.; Apai, D.; Csengeri, T.; Grady, C. A.; Henning, Th.; Hughes, A. M.; Kiss, Cs.;

Thirty years of beta Pic and debris disks studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagrange, Anne-Marie; Boccaletti, Anthony

2015-01-01

In the last 30 years, our knowledge of planetary systems has considerably evolved, in particular thanks to the development of observational techniques and computer simulations for modeling. From the observational point of view, emblematic discoveries thirty years ago have opened a way to dedicated studies, among which the IRAS detections of IR excess associated to dust surrounding main-sequence stars. Shortly after these discoveries, the first image of a debris disk around the star beta Pictoris in 1984 was made, followed in the 90's by the indirect detection of extrasolar planets and, a decade later, by the direct imaging of young giant planets. Beta Pictoris is a ground-breaking object for the study of formation and evolution of planetary systems. It is a unique system in many regards, as it is made of dust, planetesimals, comets and at least one giant planet. Observations with various techniques (imaging, spectroscopy, interferometry) at multiple wavelengths (from the UV to radio waves) have allowed significant progress in the understanding of this system. Yet, many questions are still open, and more results are expected in the coming decade thanks to the next generation of instruments like for instance ALMA, JWST, SPHERE and many others. To celebrate the thirtieth anniversary of the first debris disk image, we propose to gather experts on the analysis of beta Pictoris and interested colleagues to review and discuss the observational knowledge on this archetypal system (including the latest results), as well as its current understanding and related open questions to be addressed in the next decade, such as the history of the disk and planet formation, dynamical evolution, etc. Similar, well-studied debris disks systems with significant amount of observational data that allow in-depth modeling will be also presented and discussed. Second, in a two-days dedicated workshop, we will gather to define an action plan for the typically 3-5 next years to achieve a full, comprehensive description of the whole beta Pictoris system, and to organize the necessary work, and possible milestones. In the next years, a similar approach may, eventually, be applicable to other systems.

Thirty years of beta Pic and debris disks studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagrange, A.-M.; Boccaletti, A.

2014-09-01

In the last 30 years, our knowledge of planetary systems has considerably evolved, in particular thanks to the development of observational techniques and computer simulations for modeling. From the observational point of view, emblematic discoveries thirty years ago have opened a way to dedicated studies, among which the IRAS detections of IR excess associated to dust surrounding main-sequence stars. Shortly after these discoveries, the first image of a debris disk around the star beta Pictoris in 1984 was made, followed in the 90's by the indirect detection of extrasolar planets and, a decade later, by the direct imaging of young giant planets. Beta Pictoris is a ground-breaking object for the study of formation and evolution of planetary systems. It is a unique system in many regards, as it is made of dust, planetesimals, comets and at least one giant planet. Observations with various techniques (imaging, spectroscopy, interferometry) at multiple wavelengths (from the UV to radio waves) have allowed significant progress in the understanding of this system. Yet, many questions are still open, and more results are expected in the coming decade thanks to the next generation of instruments like for instance ALMA, JWST, SPHERE and many others. To celebrate the thirtieth anniversary of the first debris disk image, we propose to gather experts on the analysis of beta Pictoris and interested colleagues to review and discuss the observational knowledge on this archetypal system (including the latest results), as well as its current understanding and related open questions to be addressed in the next decade, such as the history of the disk and planet formation, dynamical evolution, etc. Similar, well-studied debris disks systems with significant amount of observational data that allow in-depth modeling will be also presented and discussed. Second, in a two-days dedicated workshop, we will gather to define an action plan for the typically 3-5 next years to achieve a full, comprehensive description of the whole beta Pictoris system, and to organize the necessary work, and possible milestones. In the next years, a similar approach may, eventually, be applicable to other systems.

Assessment of Debris Flow Hazards, North Mountain, Phoenix, AZ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reavis, K. J.; Wasklewicz, T. A.

2014-12-01

Urban sprawl in many western U.S. cities has expanded development onto alluvial fans. In the case of metropolitan Phoenix, AZ (MPA), urban sprawl has led to an exponential outward growth into surrounding mountainous areas and onto alluvial fans. Building on alluvial fans places humans at greater risk to flooding and debris flow hazards. Recent research has shown debris flows often supply large quantities of material to many alluvial fans in MPA. However, the risk of debris flows to built environments is relatively unknown. We use a 2D debris flow modeling approach, aided by high-resolution airborne LiDAR and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) topographic data, to examine debris flow behavior in a densely populated portion of the MPA to assess the risk and vulnerability of debris flow damage to the built infrastructure. A calibrated 2D debris flow model is developed for a "known" recent debris flow at an undeveloped site in MPA. The calibrated model and two other model scenarios are applied to a populated area with historical evidence of debris flow activity. Results from the modeled scenarios show evidence of debris flow damage to houses built on the alluvial fan. Debris flow inundation is also evident on streets on the fan. We use housing values and building damage to estimate the costs assocaited with various modeled debris flow scenarios.

EDDA 1.0: integrated simulation of debris flow erosion, deposition and property changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, H. X.; Zhang, L. M.

2015-03-01

Debris flow material properties change during the initiation, transportation and deposition processes, which influences the runout characteristics of the debris flow. A quasi-three-dimensional depth-integrated numerical model, EDDA (Erosion-Deposition Debris flow Analysis), is presented in this paper to simulate debris flow erosion, deposition and induced material property changes. The model considers changes in debris flow density, yield stress and dynamic viscosity during the flow process. The yield stress of the debris flow mixture determined at limit equilibrium using the Mohr-Coulomb equation is applicable to clear water flow, hyper-concentrated flow and fully developed debris flow. To assure numerical stability and computational efficiency at the same time, an adaptive time stepping algorithm is developed to solve the governing differential equations. Four numerical tests are conducted to validate the model. The first two tests involve a one-dimensional debris flow with constant properties and a two-dimensional dam-break water flow. The last two tests involve erosion and deposition, and the movement of multi-directional debris flows. The changes in debris flow mass and properties due to either erosion or deposition are shown to affect the runout characteristics significantly. The model is also applied to simulate a large-scale debris flow in Xiaojiagou Ravine to test the performance of the model in catchment-scale simulations. The results suggest that the model estimates well the volume, inundated area, and runout distance of the debris flow. The model is intended for use as a module in a real-time debris flow warning system.

EDDA: integrated simulation of debris flow erosion, deposition and property changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, H. X.; Zhang, L. M.

2014-11-01

Debris flow material properties change during the initiation, transportation and deposition processes, which influences the runout characteristics of the debris flow. A quasi-three-dimensional depth-integrated numerical model, EDDA, is presented in this paper to simulate debris flow erosion, deposition and induced material property changes. The model considers changes in debris flow density, yield stress and dynamic viscosity during the flow process. The yield stress of debris flow mixture is determined at limit equilibrium using the Mohr-Coulomb equation, which is applicable to clear water flow, hyper-concentrated flow and fully developed debris flow. To assure numerical stability and computational efficiency at the same time, a variable time stepping algorithm is developed to solve the governing differential equations. Four numerical tests are conducted to validate the model. The first two tests involve a one-dimensional dam-break water flow and a one-dimensional debris flow with constant properties. The last two tests involve erosion and deposition, and the movement of multi-directional debris flows. The changes in debris flow mass and properties due to either erosion or deposition are shown to affect the runout characteristics significantly. The model is also applied to simulate a large-scale debris flow in Xiaojiagou Ravine to test the performance of the model in catchment-scale simulations. The results suggest that the model estimates well the volume, inundated area, and runout distance of the debris flow. The model is intended for use as a module in a real-time debris flow warning system.

Launch Vehicle Debris Models and Crew Vehicle Ascent Abort Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott

2013-01-01

For manned space launch systems, a reliable abort system is required to reduce the risks associated with a launch vehicle failure during ascent. Understanding the risks associated with failure environments can be achieved through the use of physics-based models of these environments. Debris fields due to destruction of the launch vehicle is one such environment. To better analyze the risk posed by debris, a physics-based model for generating launch vehicle debris catalogs has been developed. The model predicts the mass distribution of the debris field based on formulae developed from analysis of explosions. Imparted velocity distributions are computed using a shock-physics code to model the explosions within the launch vehicle. A comparison of the debris catalog with an existing catalog for the Shuttle external tank show good comparison in the debris characteristics and the predicted debris strike probability. The model is used to analyze the effects of number of debris pieces and velocity distributions on the strike probability and risk.

NASA's New Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM2010

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krisko, Paula H.

2010-01-01

This paper describes the functionality and use of ORDEM2010, which replaces ORDEM2000, as the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) debris engineering model. Like its predecessor, ORDEM2010 serves the ODPO mission of providing spacecraft designers/operators and debris observers with a publicly available model to calculate orbital debris flux by current-state-of-knowledge methods. The key advance in ORDEM2010 is the input file structure of the yearly debris populations from 1995-2035 of sizes 10 micron - 1 m. These files include debris from low-Earth orbits (LEO) through geosynchronous orbits (GEO). Stable orbital elements (i.e., those that do not randomize on a sub-year timescale) are included in the files as are debris size, debris number, material density, random error and population error. Material density is implemented from ground-test data into the NASA breakup model and assigned to debris fragments accordingly. The random and population errors are due to machine error and uncertainties in debris sizes. These high-fidelity population files call for a much higher-level model analysis than what was possible with the populations of ORDEM2000. Population analysis in the ORDEM2010 model consists of mapping matrices that convert the debris population elements to debris fluxes. One output mode results in a spacecraft encompassing 3-D igloo of debris flux, compartmentalized by debris size, velocity, pitch, and yaw with respect to spacecraft ram direction. The second output mode provides debris flux through an Earth-based telescope/radar beam from LEO through GEO. This paper compares the new ORDEM2010 with ORDEM2000 in terms of processes and results with examples of specific orbits.

CONSTRAINING A MODEL OF TURBULENT CORONAL HEATING FOR AU MICROSCOPII WITH X-RAY, RADIO, AND MILLIMETER OBSERVATIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cranmer, Steven R.; Wilner, David J.; MacGregor, Meredith A.

2013-08-01

Many low-mass pre-main-sequence stars exhibit strong magnetic activity and coronal X-ray emission. Even after the primordial accretion disk has been cleared out, the star's high-energy radiation continues to affect the formation and evolution of dust, planetesimals, and large planets. Young stars with debris disks are thus ideal environments for studying the earliest stages of non-accretion-driven coronae. In this paper we simulate the corona of AU Mic, a nearby active M dwarf with an edge-on debris disk. We apply a self-consistent model of coronal loop heating that was derived from numerical simulations of solar field-line tangling and magnetohydrodynamic turbulence. We alsomore » synthesize the modeled star's X-ray luminosity and thermal radio/millimeter continuum emission. A realistic set of parameter choices for AU Mic produces simulated observations that agree with all existing measurements and upper limits. This coronal model thus represents an alternative explanation for a recently discovered ALMA central emission peak that was suggested to be the result of an inner 'asteroid belt' within 3 AU of the star. However, it is also possible that the central 1.3 mm peak is caused by a combination of active coronal emission and a bright inner source of dusty debris. Additional observations of this source's spatial extent and spectral energy distribution at millimeter and radio wavelengths will better constrain the relative contributions of the proposed mechanisms.« less

An Overview of NASA's Orbital Debris Engineering Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matney, Mark

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the importance of Orbital debris engineering models. They are mathematical tools to assess orbital debris flux. It briefly reviews the history of the orbital debris engineering models, and reviews the new features in the current model (i.e., ORDEM2010).

Entrainment of bed sediment by debris flows: results from large-scale experiments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reid, Mark E.; Iverson, Richard M.; Logan, Matthew; LaHusen, Richard G.; Godt, Jonathan W.; Griswold, Julie P.

2011-01-01

When debris flows grow by entraining sediment, they can become especially hazardous owing to increased volume, speed, and runout. To investigate the entrainment process, we conducted eight largescale experiments in the USGS debris-flow flume. In each experiment, we released a 6 m3 water-saturated debris flow across a 47-m long, ~12-cm thick bed of partially saturated sediment lining the 31º flume. Prior to release, we used low-intensity overhead sprinkling and real-time monitoring to control the bed-sediment wetness. As each debris flow descended the flume, we measured the evolution of flow thickness, basal total normal stress, basal pore-fluid pressure, and sediment scour depth. When debris flows traveled over relatively dry sediment, net scour was minimal, but when debris flows traveled over wetter sediment (volumetric water content > 0.22), debris-flow volume grew rapidly and flow speed and runout were enhanced. Data from scour sensors showed that entrainment occurred by rapid (5-10 cm/s), progressive scour rather than by mass failure at depth. Overriding debris flows rapidly generated high basal pore-fluid pressures when they loaded and deformed bed sediment, and in wetter beds these pressures approached lithostatic levels. Reduction of intergranular friction within the bed sediment thereby enhanced scour efficiency, entrainment, and runout.

Geomorphological Controls and Land-use Effects on Rainfall Triggered Debris Flows in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, N. F.; Amaral, C. P.; Mota, M.; Gomes, R. A. T.; Guimarães, R. F.; Carvalho, O., Jr.; Vieira, B. C.; Vargas, E. A., Jr.; de Campos, T. M.

2009-04-01

Debris flows are major processes controlling landscape evolution, especially in tropical environments, where thick talus and colluvial deposits are observed filling bedrock topographic hollows and larger valleys. Besides their geomorphological meaning, they also represent an enormous danger to man when soil-mantled steep hillslopes are densely occupied in urban areas. In Brazil, especially in southern and southeastern portions, due to the steep hilly topography, the high precipitation values and the expansion of the urbanization towards the hillslopes, debris flows are becoming more frequent. This has been the case of the catastrophic debris flows observed in Rio de Janeiro (e.g., 1967, 1988, 1996, 2002) and São Paulo (e.g., 1967, 1975). In these states, due to the dense occupation, debris flows tend to frequently achieve catastrophic proportions. However, more recently, even in areas with sparse occupation and with no previous records of catastrophic landslides, like the ones in the southern states of Paraná and Santa Catarina, debris flows are taking place. This is the case of the recent rainfall triggered catastrophic debris flows that occurred last November in the area Morro do Baú, Santa Catarina state, by far, the most important event that took place in this region. In this location, besides the striking pluviometric records and the geological/geomorphological aspects, land-use changes (huge banana plantations and Pines forested areas) seems to have played a major role in amplifying the magnitude of the processes. However, the scientific community in Brazil seems to be still more concerned with small shallow landslides. Although a lot of effort has already been made towards a better understanding of the conditioning factors controlling landslide initiation at a specific site (hillslope scale), it is urgent to improve our ability in predicting landslide instability in larger areas (drainage basin scale), where positive and negative feedbacks between the hillslope and the channel segments play a major role. Modeling hillslope stability, of course, is not an easy task, especially when dealing with large drainage basin. Consequently, different approaches should be combined in order to attain success in prediction landslide hazards. In this study, based on detailed field mapping and modeling, we compare the role played by the geomorphological and geological factors in defining the location of major debris flows in Brazil. Besides, we discuss the effects of land-use changes, especially the introduction of huge banana plantations on steep slopes, on soil hydrology and landsliding. At last, we show some modeling results obtained in combining the models SHALSTAB and FLO-2D to simulate the catastrophic debris flows that took place in Rio de Janeiro city in 1996. Although our ability to predict where landslides might occur in a certain landscape has greatly improved in the last decades, we still have a long way towards being able to define when they will take place.

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM2000

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, Jer-Chyi; Matney, Mark J.; Anz-Meador, Phillip D.; Kessler, Donald; Jansen, Mark; Theall, Jeffery R.

2002-01-01

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office at Johnson Space Center has developed a new computer-based orbital debris engineering model, ORDEM2000, which describes the orbital debris environment in the low Earth orbit region between 200 and 2000 km altitude. The model is appropriate for those engineering solutions requiring knowledge and estimates of the orbital debris environment (debris spatial density, flux, etc.). ORDEM2000 can also be used as a benchmark for ground-based debris measurements and observations. We incorporated a large set of observational data, covering the object size range from 10 mm to 10 m, into the ORDEM2000 debris database, utilizing a maximum likelihood estimator to convert observations into debris population probability distribution functions. These functions then form the basis of debris populations. We developed a finite element model to process the debris populations to form the debris environment. A more capable input and output structure and a user-friendly graphical user interface are also implemented in the model. ORDEM2000 has been subjected to a significant verification and validation effort. This document describes ORDEM2000, which supersedes the previous model, ORDEM96. The availability of new sensor and in situ data, as well as new analytical techniques, has enabled the construction of this new model. Section 1 describes the general requirements and scope of an engineering model. Data analyses and the theoretical formulation of the model are described in Sections 2 and 3. Section 4 describes the verification and validation effort and the sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Finally, Section 5 describes the graphical user interface, software installation, and test cases for the user.

The Dynamics and Implications of Gap Clearing via Planets in Planetesimal (Debris) Disks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrison, Sarah Jane

Exoplanets and debris disks are examples of solar systems other than our own. As the dusty reservoirs of colliding planetesimals, debris disks provide indicators of planetary system evolution on orbital distance scales beyond those probed by the most prolific exoplanet detection methods, and on timescales 10 r to 10 Gyr. The Solar System possesses both planets and small bodies, and through studying the gravitational interactions between both, we gain insight into the Solar System's past. As we enter the era of resolved observations of debris disks residing around other stars, I add to our theoretical understanding of the dynamical interactions between debris, planets, and combinations thereof. I quantify how single planets clear material in their vicinity and how long this process takes for the entire planetary mass regime. I use these relationships to assess the lowest mass planet that could clear a gap in observed debris disks over the system's lifetime. In the distant outer reaches of gaps in young debris systems, this minimum planet mass can exceed Neptune's. To complement the discoveries of wide-orbit, massive, exoplanets by direct imaging surveys, I assess the dynamical stability of high mass multi-planet systems to estimate how many high mass planets could be packed into young, gapped debris disks. I compare these expectations to the planet detection rates of direct imaging surveys and find that high mass planets are not the primary culprits for forming gaps in young debris disk systems. As an alternative model for forming gaps in planetesimal disks with planets, I assess the efficacy of creating gaps with divergently migrating pairs of planets. I find that migrating planets could produce observed gaps and elude detection. Moreover, the inferred planet masses when neglecting migration for such gaps could be expected to be observable by direct imaging surveys for young, nearby systems. Wide gaps in young systems would likely still require more than two planets even with plantesimal-driven migration. These efforts begin to probe the types of potential planets carving gaps in disks of different evolutionary stages and at wide orbit separations on scales similar to our outer Solar System.

Numerical simulation of the debris flow dynamics with an upwind scheme and specific friction treatment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez Burillo, Guillermo; Beguería, Santiago; Latorre, Borja; Burguete, Javier

2014-05-01

Debris flows, snow and rock avalanches, mud and earth flows are often modeled by means of a particular realization of the so called shallow water equations (SWE). Indeed, a number of simulation models have been already developed [1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [6], [7]. Debris flow equations differ from shallow water equations in two main aspects. These are (a) strong bed gradient and (b) rheology friction terms that differ from the traditional SWE. A systematic analysis of the numerical solution of the hyperbolic system of equations rising from the shallow water equations with different rheological laws has not been done. Despite great efforts have been done to deal with friction expressions common in hydraulics (such as Manning friction), landslide rheologies are characterized by more complicated expressions that may deal to unphysical solutions if not treated carefully. In this work, a software that solves the time evolution of sliding masses over complex bed configurations is presented. The set of non- linear equations is treated by means of a first order upwind explicit scheme, and the friction contribution to the dynamics is treated with a suited numerical scheme [8]. In addition, the software incorporates various rheological models to accommodate for different flow types, such as the Voellmy frictional model [9] for rock and debris avalanches, or the Herschley-Bulkley model for debris and mud flows. The aim of this contribution is to release this code as a free, open source tool for the simulation of mass movements, and to encourage the scientific community to make use of it. The code uses as input data the friction coefficients and two input files: the topography of the bed and the initial (pre-failure) position of the sliding mass. In addition, another file with the final (post-event) position of the sliding mass, if desired, can be introduced to be compared with the simulation obtained result. If the deposited mass is given, an error estimation is computed by means of the Nash-Shutcliffe statistic [10]. This error estimation can be used to calibrate the input friction coefficients, providing an efficient tool for risk analysis in many regions of the world and specially in areas with steep topographic gradients such as mountain ranges, heavily incised river networks, coastal cliffs, etc. References: [1] H. J. Koerner, "Reichweite und geschwindigkeit von bergstürzen und fleisschneelawinen". Rock Mechanics, 8, 225-256 (1976) [2] P. J. McLellan and P. K. Kaiser, "Application of a two-parameter model to rock avalanches in the mackenzine mountains". 4th International Symposium on Landslides, 135-140 (1984). [3] A. Kent and O. Hungr, "Runout characteristics of debris from dump failures in mountainous terrain: stage 2: analysis, modelling and prediction". British Columbia Mine Waste Rock Pile Research Committee and CANMET (1995). [4] O. Hungr and S. G. Evans, "Rock avalanche runout prediction using a dynamic model". 7th International Symposium on Landslides, 233-238 (1996). [5] D. Rickenmann and T. Koch, "Comparison of debris flow modelling approaches". First International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Prediction, and Assessment. ASCE, ed. New York. C.L. Chen (1997). [6] P. Bertolo and G. F. Wieczorek, "Calibration of numerical models for small debris flows in Yosemite Valley, California, USA". Natural Hazards in Earth System Sciences (5) 993-1001 (2005). [7] S. Beguería and Th. J. van Asch and J. P. Malet and S. Gröndahl, "A GIS-based numerical model for simulating the kinematics of mud and debris flows over complex terrain". Natural Hazards in Earth System Sciences (9) 1897-1909 (2009). [8] G. Sánchez Burillo, S. Beguería, B. Latorre and J. Burguete, "Numerical treatment of the friction term in upwind schemes in debris flow runout modelling". ASCE Journal of Hydraulic Engineering (sent for publication). [9] A. Voellmy, Über die Zerstörungskraft von Lawinen. Schweizer. Bauzeitung (1955). [10] J. E. Nash and J. V. Shutcliffe, "River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I - A discussion of principles". Journal of Hydrology, 10 (3) 282-290 (1970).

Space Shuttle Propulsion Systems Plume Modeling and Simulation for the Lift-Off Computational Fluid Dynamics Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strutzenberg, L. L.; Dougherty, N. S.; Liever, P. A.; West, J. S.; Smith, S. D.

2007-01-01

This paper details advances being made in the development of Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes numerical simulation tools, models, and methods for the integrated Space Shuttle Vehicle at launch. The conceptual model and modeling approach described includes the development of multiple computational models to appropriately analyze the potential debris transport for critical debris sources at Lift-Off. The conceptual model described herein involves the integration of propulsion analysis for the nozzle/plume flow with the overall 3D vehicle flowfield at Lift-Off. Debris Transport Analyses are being performed using the Shuttle Lift-Off models to assess the risk to the vehicle from Lift-Off debris and appropriately prioritized mitigation of potential debris sources to continue to reduce vehicle risk. These integrated simulations are being used to evaluate plume-induced debris environments where the multi-plume interactions with the launch facility can potentially accelerate debris particles toward the vehicle.

Meteorological tools in support to the railway security system on the Calabria region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laviola, Sante; Gabriele, Salvatore; Iovine, Giulio; Baldini, Luca; Chiravalloti, Francesco; Federico, Stefano; Miglietta, Marcello Mario; Milani, Lisa; Procopio, Antonio; Roberto, Nicoletta; Tiesi, Alessandro; Agostino, Mario; Niccoli, Raffaele; Stassi, Sergio; Rago, Valeria

2017-04-01

RAMSES (RAilway Meteorological SEcurity System) is a pilot project co-funded by the Italian Railway Company - RFI S.p.A. and conceived for the mitigation of the hydrological risk along the Calabria railways. RAMSES aims at improving the forecast of very short life-cycle convection systems, responsible of intense and localized rainfalls affecting small catchment areas, which are often underestimated by the numerical weather models and even non-adequately detected by the network of sparse raingauges. The RAMSES operational design is based on a synergistic and integrated architecture, providing a series of information able to identify the most active convective cells and monitoring their evolution in terms of vertical structure, rain intensity and geo-hydrological effects at ground (debris flow, landslides, collapses of bridges, erosion of the ballast). The RAMSES meteorological component is designed to identify and track the short-term evolution (15-60 min) of convective cells, by means of imaging techniques based on dual-polarization weather radar and Meteosat data. In support of this quasi-real time analysis, the numerical model WRF provides the weather forecast at 3-6 hours range by ingesting, through the assimilation system LAPS, the observational data (rain gauges, ground weather stations, radar, satellites) in order to improve the initial condition. Finally, the hydraulic flow modeling is used to assess the ground effects in terms of landslide susceptibility, rainfall-runoff intensity, debris impact on the drainage network and evaluate of risk along the railway track.

Empirical models to predict the volumes of debris flows generated by recently burned basins in the western U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gartner, J.E.; Cannon, S.H.; Santi, P.M.; deWolfe, V.G.

2008-01-01

Recently burned basins frequently produce debris flows in response to moderate-to-severe rainfall. Post-fire hazard assessments of debris flows are most useful when they predict the volume of material that may flow out of a burned basin. This study develops a set of empirically-based models that predict potential volumes of wildfire-related debris flows in different regions and geologic settings. The models were developed using data from 53 recently burned basins in Colorado, Utah and California. The volumes of debris flows in these basins were determined by either measuring the volume of material eroded from the channels, or by estimating the amount of material removed from debris retention basins. For each basin, independent variables thought to affect the volume of the debris flow were determined. These variables include measures of basin morphology, basin areas burned at different severities, soil material properties, rock type, and rainfall amounts and intensities for storms triggering debris flows. Using these data, multiple regression analyses were used to create separate predictive models for volumes of debris flows generated by burned basins in six separate regions or settings, including the western U.S., southern California, the Rocky Mountain region, and basins underlain by sedimentary, metamorphic and granitic rocks. An evaluation of these models indicated that the best model (the Western U.S. model) explains 83% of the variability in the volumes of the debris flows, and includes variables that describe the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30%, the basin area burned at moderate and high severity, and total storm rainfall. This model was independently validated by comparing volumes of debris flows reported in the literature, to volumes estimated using the model. Eighty-seven percent of the reported volumes were within two residual standard errors of the volumes predicted using the model. This model is an improvement over previous models in that it includes a measure of burn severity and an estimate of modeling errors. The application of this model, in conjunction with models for the probability of debris flows, will enable more complete and rapid assessments of debris flow hazards following wildfire.

Geomorphology and dynamics of supraglacial debris covers in the Western Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deline, P.; Gardent, M.; Kirkbride, M. P.; Le Roy, M.; Martin, B.

2012-04-01

In the alpine regions of France and NW Italy, many glaciers of a variety of sizes are at least partly debris-covered, but these have received less scientific research than clean glaciers. During the present period of glacier shrinkage - the area of glacier cover in France has reduced by 26% over the last 40 years -, growing debris cover needs to be understood as an influence on continuing retreat, with consequences for natural hazards, water resources and tourism. We present the results of a combined ongoing study of an inventory of debris-covered glaciers in France with site-specific studies of c. 12 glaciers of contrasting types, in order to understand spatial and temporal changes in supraglacial debris cover. Our specific aims are: 1. To understand the geomorphology of debris-covers and their formation, investigating the types of debris cover in relation to formative processes including extraglacial supply and development during transport. 2. To document the changing extents of supraglacial debris covers, using historical documents and aerial photographs. 3. To interpret areal changes in terms of glaciological and topographical controls on different glacier and debris cover types (catchment morphology, glacier structure, mass balance history, and rock wall collapse magnitude and frequency). 4. To understand the effect of debris cover on glacier dynamics and geomorphological evolution, related to insulation-related modifications to AAR, long profiles, and length changes on both short and long timescales. This includes investigation of the characteristics of debris-covered glacier depositional systems resulting from their modified dynamics.

The Solid Rocket Motor Slag Population: Results of a Radar-Based Regressive Statistical Evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horstman, Matthew F.; Xu, Yu-Lin

2008-01-01

Solid rocket motor (SRM) slag has been identified as a potential source of man-made orbital debris. The possibility that SRMs (in addition to generating dust particles in the sub-millimeter range) may generate particles up to centimeters in size has caused concern regarding their contribution to the debris environment. Returned surfaces from space do not have sufficient area or exposure time to provide a clear picture of the SRM millimeter and centimeter debris population. Currently, radar observation is probably the only way to collect data showing the debris contribution from SRMs. Such observation is used to sample the debris environment, but it is difficult to obtain accurate orbital elements for the detected debris objects. NASA has developed several models to describe the different orbital debris populations, based on assumed debris production mechanisms to create clouds of debris objects that can be propagated in time. The NASA model, LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris), functions as a time-tested debris model for most debris sources. However, the current LEGEND model does not include contributions from the SRM population. An SRM model has recently been developed by NASA, based on purely theoretical details of SRM production and known SRM launches, but verification with hard data is needed. Because the detections of individual SRM objects cannot be deterministically separated from the total debris observed by radar, the validation of the SRM model can only be done by combining it with the LEGEND breakup model and comparing it with data. By applying observational constraints, the degree of SRM slag contribution to the environment may be estimated. This serves as an observationally sound method from which to calibrate a purely theoretical model into something more realistic. For this study, we use the populations observed by the Haystack radar from 1996 to present. For the SRM debris, we use a historical database of SRM launches, propellant masses, and estimated locations and times of tailoff to produce and propagate the SRM debris clouds. Comparisons with radar data from the ensuing years were made, and the SRM model was altered with respect to size and mass production of slag particles to reflect the populations estimated from the data. The result is a model SRM population that fits within the bounds of the observed environment and estimates of the production and contribution of SRM debris to the environment.

Pluri-decadal (1955-2014) evolution of glacier-rock glacier transitional landforms in the central Andes of Chile (30-33° S)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monnier, Sébastien; Kinnard, Christophe

2017-08-01

Three glacier-rock glacier transitional landforms in the central Andes of Chile are investigated over the last decades in order to highlight and question the significance of their landscape and flow dynamics. Historical (1955-2000) aerial photos and contemporary (> 2000) Geoeye satellite images were used together with common processing operations, including imagery orthorectification, digital elevation model generation, and image feature tracking. At each site, the rock glacier morphology area, thermokarst area, elevation changes, and horizontal surface displacements were mapped. The evolution of the landforms over the study period is remarkable, with rapid landscape changes, particularly an expansion of rock glacier morphology areas. Elevation changes were heterogeneous, especially in debris-covered glacier areas with large heaving or lowering up to more than ±1 m yr-1. The use of image feature tracking highlighted spatially coherent flow vector patterns over rock glacier areas and, at two of the three sites, their expansion over the studied period; debris-covered glacier areas are characterized by a lack of movement detection and/or chaotic displacement patterns reflecting thermokarst degradation; mean landform displacement speeds ranged between 0.50 and 1.10 m yr-1 and exhibited a decreasing trend over the studied period. One important highlight of this study is that, especially in persisting cold conditions, rock glaciers can develop upward at the expense of debris-covered glaciers. Two of the studied landforms initially (prior to the study period) developed from an alternation between glacial advances and rock glacier development phases. The other landform is a small debris-covered glacier having evolved into a rock glacier over the last half-century. Based on these results it is proposed that morphological and dynamical interactions between glaciers and permafrost and their resulting hybrid landscapes may enhance the resilience of the mountain cryosphere against climate change.

Modelling the contribution of supraglacial ice cliffs to the mass-balance of glaciers in the Langtang catchment, Nepalese Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buri, P.; Steiner, J. F.; Miles, E.; Ragettli, S.; Pellicciotti, F.

2017-12-01

Supraglacial cliffs are typical surface features of debris-covered glaciers worldwide, affecting surface evolution, and mass balance by providing a direct ice-atmosphere interface where melt rates can be very high. As a result, ice cliffs act as windows of energy transfer from the atmosphere to the ice, and enhance melt and mass losses of otherwise insulated ice. However, their contribution to glacier mass balance has never been quantified at the glacier scale, and all inference has been obtained from upscaling results of point-scale models or observations at select individual cliffs. Here we use a 3D, physically-based backwasting model to estimate the volume losses associated with the melting and backwasting of supraglacial ice cliffs for the entire debris-covered glacier area of the Langtang catchment. We estimate mass losses for the 2014 melt season and compare them to recent values of glacier mass balance determined from geodetic and numerical modelling approached. Cliff outlines and topography are derived from high-resolution stereo SPOT6-imagery from April 2014. Meteorological data to force the model are provided by automatic weather stations on- and off-glacier within the valley. The model simulates ice cliff backwasting by considering the cliff-atmosphere energy-balance, reburial by debris and the effects of adjacent ponds. In the melt season of 2014, cliffs' distribution and patterns of mass losses vary considerably from glacier to glacier, and we relate rates of volume loss to both glaciers' and cliffs' characteristics. Only cliffs with a northerly aspect account for substantial losses. Uncertainty in our estimates is due to the quality of the stereo DEM, uncertainties in the cliff delineation and the fact that we use a conservative approach to cliff delineation and discard very small cliffs and those for which uncertainty in topography is high. Despite these uncertainties, our work presents the first estimate of the importance of supraglacial ice-cliffs to total glacier mass-balance, and shows that the volume lost by backwasting of ice cliffs is a non-negligible term in the total glacier mass balance of debris-covered glaciers, providing a partial explanation of the higher-than-expected mass losses of debris-covered glaciers of High Mountain Asia.

Modelling debris transport within glaciers by advection in a full-Stokes ice flow model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wirbel, Anna; Jarosch, Alexander H.; Nicholson, Lindsey

2017-04-01

As mountain glaciers recede worldwide, an increasing proportion of the remaining glacierized area is expected to become debris covered. The spatio-temporal development of a surface debris cover has profound effects on the glacier behaviour and meltwater generation, yet little is known about how glacier dynamics influence the spatial distribution of an emerging debris cover. Motivated by this lack of understanding, we present a coupled model to simulate advection and resulting deformation of debris features within glaciers. The finite element model developed in python consists of an advection scheme coupled to a full-Stokes ice flow model, using FEniCS as the numerical framework. We show results from numerical tests that demonstrate its suitability to model advection-dominated transport of concentration in a divergence-free velocity field. The capabilities of the coupled model are demonstrated by simulating transport of debris features of different initial size, shape and location through modelled velocity fields of representative mountain glaciers. The results indicate that deformation of initial debris inputs, as a consequence of being transported through the glacier, plays an important role in determining the location and rate of debris emergence at the glacier surface. The presented work lays the foundation for comprehensive simulations of realistic patterns of debris cover, their spatial and temporal variability and the timescales over which debris covers can form.

Gas in Protoplanetary and Debris Disks: Insights from UV Spectroscopy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberge, Aki

2008-01-01

Over the last two decades, observations of protoplanetary and debris disks have played an important role in the new field of extrasolar planetary studies. Many are familiar with the extensive work on the cold circumstellar dust present in these disks done using infrared and sub-millimeter photometry and spectroscopy. However. UV spectroscopy has made some unique contributions by probing the elusive but vital gas component in protoplanetary and debris disks. In this talk, I will outline our picture of the evolution of protoplanetary disks and discuss the importance of the gas component. New insights obtained from UV spectroscopy will be highlighted, as well as some new puzzles. Finally, I will touch on upcoming studies of gas in protoplanetary and debris disks, some at UV wavelengths, some at far-IR and sub-mm wavelengths.

Linking rainfall-induced landslides with debris flows runout patterns towards catchment scale hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Linfeng; Lehmann, Peter; McArdell, Brian; Or, Dani

2017-03-01

Debris flows and landslides induced by heavy rainfall represent an ubiquitous and destructive natural hazard in steep mountainous regions. For debris flows initiated by shallow landslides, the prediction of the resulting pathways and associated hazard is often hindered by uncertainty in determining initiation locations, volumes and mechanical state of the mobilized debris (and by model parameterization). We propose a framework for linking a simplified physically-based debris flow runout model with a novel Landslide Hydro-mechanical Triggering (LHT) model to obtain a coupled landslide-debris flow susceptibility and hazard assessment. We first compared the simplified debris flow model of Perla (1980) with a state-of-the art continuum-based model (RAMMS) and with an empirical model of Rickenmann (1999) at the catchment scale. The results indicate that predicted runout distances by the Perla model are in reasonable agreement with inventory measurements and with the other models. Predictions of localized shallow landslides by LHT model provides information on water content of released mass. To incorporate effects of water content and flow viscosity as provided by LHT on debris flow runout, we adapted the Perla model. The proposed integral link between landslide triggering susceptibility quantified by LHT and subsequent debris flow runout hazard calculation using the adapted Perla model provides a spatially and temporally resolved framework for real-time hazard assessment at the catchment scale or along critical infrastructure (roads, railroad lines).

Validating early stellar encounters as the cause of dynamically hot planetary systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalas, Paul

2017-08-01

One of the key questions concerning exoplanetary systems is why some are dynamically cold, such as TRAPPIST-1, whereas others are dynamically hot, with highly eccentric planets and/or perturbed debris disks. Dynamical theory describes a variety of plausible mechanisms, but few can be empirically tested since the critical dynamical evolution that sets the final planetary architecture is short-lived. One rare system available for testing dynamical upheaval scenarios is the 400 Myr-old Fomalhaut system. In Cycle 22 we coronagraphically studied Fomalhaut C, which is a wide M-dwarf companion to Fomalhaut A, in order to test our prediction that the unresolved, Herschel-detected debris disk around Fomalhaut C may be highly perturbed because of a recent close interaction with Fomalhaut A. Using HST/STIS we discovered a highly asymmetric feature extending northward of Fomalhaut C by 3 that resembles our model of a dynamically hot disk. However, it may be a background galaxy and the definitive test of its physical relationship to Fomalhaut C is to demonstrate common proper motion. Using Keck adaptive optics follow-up observations in J band, we did not detect the feature, and hence follow-up HST observations are the only way to test for common proper motion. Here we request a very small program to revisit Fomalhaut C with STIS in order to validate the initial discovery as a debris disk (1 proper motion between HST epochs). The astrophysical significance is demonstrating that the Fomalhaut system is a valuable case for studying dynamical upheavals via stellar encounters that are inferred to occur in the evolution of many other planetary systems.

Predicting the occurrence of channelized debris flow by an integrated cascading model: A case study of a small debris flow-prone catchment in Zhejiang Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Zhen-lei; Xu, Yue-Ping; Sun, Hong-yue; Xie, Wei; Wu, Gang

2018-05-01

Excessive water in a channel is an important factor that triggers channelized debris flows. Floods and debris flows often occur in a cascading manner, and thus, calculating the amount of runoff accurately is important for predicting the occurrence of debris flows. In order to explore the runoff-rainfall relationship, we placed two measuring facilities at the outlet of a small, debris flow-prone headwater catchment to explore the hydrological response of the catchment. The runoff responses generally consisted of a rapid increase in runoff followed by a slower decrease. The peak runoff often occurred after the rainfall ended. The runoff discharge data were simulated by two different modeling approaches, i.e., the NAM model and the Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model. The results showed that the NAM model performed better than the HEC-HMS model. The NAM model provided acceptable simulations, while the HEC-HMS model did not. Then, we coupled the calculated results of the NAM model with an empirically based debris flow initiation model to obtain a new integrated cascading disaster modeling system to provide improved disaster preparedness and hazard management. In this case study, we found that the coupled model could correctly predict the occurrence of debris flows. Furthermore, we evaluated the effect of the range of input parameter values on the hydrographical shape of the runoff. We also used the grey relational analysis to conduct a sensitivity analysis of the parameters of the model. This study highlighted the important connections between rainfall, hydrological processes, and debris flow, and it provides a useful prototype model system for operational forecasting of debris flows.

Using Structure-from-Motion to Quantify Sediment Accumulation and Bedrock Erosion in a Debris-Flow Dominated Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reitman, N. G.; Rengers, F.; Kean, J. W.

2016-12-01

One of the highest frequencies of observed debris flows in the US is located at the Chalk Cliffs in central Colorado. This high rate of debris-flow activity ( 3 per year) is supported by a similarly high rate of sediment supply from rock fall and ravel due to frost weathering of the highly-erodible, hydrothermally-altered quartz monzonite cliffs during the winter months. A first step toward understanding debris-flow initiation, and channel and hillslope evolution, is to quantify the magnitude and spatial distribution of sediment that accumulates by the end of the winter period. Here we test the ability of structure-from-motion photogrammetric surveys to produce high-resolution point clouds in order to quantify sediment deposition, and possibly bedrock erosion. We use point clouds obtained from surveys conducted in late September 2015 and early June 2016 to measure sediment deposition in a 42-m-long channel over one winter. All surveys are co-registered with control points (screws drilled into bedrock) measured in a local coordinate system with a total station. Point clouds derived from these surveys have average point densities >200,000 pts/m2, and accuracies within 2 cm. Initial analysis shows accumulation of 10-50 cm ( 10 m3) of unconsolidated loose sediment over eight months, providing ample material for debris-flow initiation during the following summer season. Sediment accumulated in a spatially-variable pattern dependent on existing channel-bottom bedrock topography. Future surveys are planned in order to measure bedrock erosion by debris flows and variation in sediment deposition rate through time. Our analysis indicates that photogrammetric surveys provide a high level of detail at low cost, and thus are a useful geomorphic monitoring tool that will ultimately lead to better understanding of the processes that contribute to debris-flow activity and landscape evolution.

Deglaciation and its impact on permafrost and rock glacier evolution: New insight from two adjacent cirques in Austria.

PubMed

Kellerer-Pirklbauer, Andreas; Kaufmann, Viktor

2018-04-15

Glaciers and permafrost are strongly linked to each other in mid-latitude mountain regions particularly with polythermal glaciers. This linkage is not only climatically defined but also in terms of geomorphic and glaciological processes. We studied two adjacent cirques located in the Central Austria. We focussed on the deglaciation since the Little Ice Age (LIA) maximum (c.1850CE) and its relevance for permafrost and rock glacier evolution since then. One cirque is occupied by a glacier remnant whereas the second one is occupied by an active rock glacier which was partly overridden by a glacier during the LIA. We applied a multidisciplinary approach using field-based techniques including geoelectrics, geodetic measurements, and automatic monitoring as well as historic maps and photographs, remote sensing, and digital terrain analysis. Results indicate almost complete deglaciation by the end of the last millennium. Small-scale tongue-shaped landforms of complex origin formed during the last decades at finer-grained slope deposits below the cirque headwalls. Field evidences and geophysics results proved the existence of widespread sedimentary ice beneath a thin veneer of debris at these slopes. The variable thickness of the debris layer has a major impact on differential ablation and landform evolution in both cirques. The comparison of digital elevation models revealed clear mass losses at both cirques with low rates between 1954 and 2002 and significantly higher rates since then. The central and lower part of the rock glacier moves fast transporting sediments and ice downvalley. In contrast, the upper part of the rock glacier is characterised by low debris and ice input rates. Both effects cause a significant decoupling of the main rock glacier body from its nourishment area leading eventually to rock glacier starvation. This study demonstrates the importance of a decadal-scale and multidisciplinary research approach in determining the development of alpine landforms over both space and time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A combined triggering-propagation modeling approach for the assessment of rainfall induced debris flow susceptibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stancanelli, Laura Maria; Peres, David Johnny; Cancelliere, Antonino; Foti, Enrico

2017-07-01

Rainfall-induced shallow slides can evolve into debris flows that move rapidly downstream with devastating consequences. Mapping the susceptibility to debris flow is an important aid for risk mitigation. We propose a novel practical approach to derive debris flow inundation maps useful for susceptibility assessment, that is based on the integrated use of DEM-based spatially-distributed hydrological and slope stability models with debris flow propagation models. More specifically, the TRIGRS infiltration and infinite slope stability model and the FLO-2D model for the simulation of the related debris flow propagation and deposition are combined. An empirical instability-to-debris flow triggering threshold calibrated on the basis of observed events, is applied to link the two models and to accomplish the task of determining the amount of unstable mass that develops as a debris flow. Calibration of the proposed methodology is carried out based on real data of the debris flow event occurred on 1 October 2009, in the Peloritani mountains area (Italy). Model performance, assessed by receiver-operating-characteristics (ROC) indexes, evidences fairly good reproduction of the observed event. Comparison with the performance of the traditional debris flow modeling procedure, in which sediment and water hydrographs are inputed as lumped at selected points on top of the streams, is also performed, in order to assess quantitatively the limitations of such commonly applied approach. Results show that the proposed method, besides of being more process-consistent than the traditional hydrograph-based approach, can potentially provide a more accurate simulation of debris-flow phenomena, in terms of spatial patterns of erosion and deposition as well on the quantification of mobilized volumes and depths, avoiding overestimation of debris flow triggering volume and, thus, of maximum inundation flow depths.

Hypervelocity impact of mm-size plastic projectile on thin aluminum plate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poniaev, S. A.; Kurakin, R. O.; Sedov, A. I.; Bobashev, S. V.; Zhukov, B. G.; Nechunaev, A. F.

2017-06-01

The experimental studies of the process of hypervelocity (up to 6 km/s) impact of a mm-size projectile on a thin aluminum plate is described. The numerical simulation of this process is presented. The data on the evolution, structure, and composition of the debris cloud formed as a result of the impact are reported. Basic specific features of the debris cloud formation are revealed.

NASA's Orbital Debris Conjuction Assessment and Collision Avoidance Strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gavin, Richard T.

2010-01-01

NASA has successfully used debris avoidance maneuvers to protect our spacecraft for more than 20 . years. This process which started out using parametric data and maneuver boxes has seen considerable evolution and now allows us to continue nominal operations for all but the most threatening objects. This has greatly reduced the interruptions to the critical mission objectives being pursued by NASA s Space Station, Space Shuttle, and robotic satellites.

Active Removal of Large Debris: Electrical Propulsion Capabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Billot Soccodato, Carole; Lorand, Anthony; Perrin, Veronique; Couzin, Patrice; FontdecabaBaig, Jordi

2013-08-01

The risk for current operational spacecraft or future market induced by large space debris, dead satellites or rocket bodies, in Low Earth Orbit has been identified several years ago. Many potential solutions and architectures are traded with a main objective of reducing cost per debris. Based on cost consideration, specially driven by launch cost, solutions constructed on multi debris capture capacities seem to be much affordable The recent technologic evolutions in electric propulsion and solar power generation can be used to combine high potential vehicles for debris removal. The present paper reports the first results of a study funded by CNES that addresses full electric solutions for large debris removal. Some analysis are currently in progress as the study will end in August. It compares the efficiency of in-orbit Active Removal of typical debris using electric propulsion The electric engine performances used in this analysis are demonstrated through a 2012/2013 PPS 5000 on-ground tests campaign. The traded missions are based on a launch in LEO, the possible vehicle architectures with capture means or contact less, the selection of deorbiting or reorbiting strategy. For contact less strategy, the ion-beam shepherd effect towards the debris problematic will be addressed. Vehicle architecture and performance of the overall system will be stated, showing the adequacy and the limits of each solution.

The economics of mitigation and remediation measures - preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiedemann, Carsten; Flegel, Sven Kevin; Vörsmann, Peter; Gelhaus, Johannes; Moeckel, Marek; Braun, Vitali; Kebschull, Christopher; Metz, Manuel

2012-07-01

Today there exists a high spatial density of orbital debris objects at about 800 km altitude. The control of the debris population in this region is important for the long-term evolution of the debris environment. The future debris population is investigated by simulations using the software tool LUCA (Long-Term Orbit Utilization Collision Analysis). It is likely that in the future there will occur more catastrophic collisions. Debris objects generated during such events may again trigger further catastrophic collisions. Current simulations have revealed that the number of debris objects will increase in the future. In a long-term perspective, catastrophic collisions may become the dominating mechanism in generating orbital debris. In this study it is investigated, when the situation will become unstable. To prevent this instability it is necessary to implement mitigation and maybe even remediation measures. It is investigated how these measures affect the future debris environment. It is simulated if the growth of the number of debris objects can be interrupted and how much this may cost. Different mitigation scenarios are considered. Furthermore also one remediation measure, the active removal of high-risk objects, is simulated. Cost drivers for the different measures are identified. It is investigated how selected measures are associated with costs. The goal is to find out which economic benefits may result from mitigation or remediation. First results of a cost benefit analyses are presented.

Time-Accurate Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulation of a Pair of Moving Solid Rocket Boosters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strutzenberg, Louise L.; Williams, Brandon R.

2011-01-01

Since the Columbia accident, the threat to the Shuttle launch vehicle from debris during the liftoff timeframe has been assessed by the Liftoff Debris Team at NASA/MSFC. In addition to engineering methods of analysis, CFD-generated flow fields during the liftoff timeframe have been used in conjunction with 3-DOF debris transport methods to predict the motion of liftoff debris. Early models made use of a quasi-steady flow field approximation with the vehicle positioned at a fixed location relative to the ground; however, a moving overset mesh capability has recently been developed for the Loci/CHEM CFD software which enables higher-fidelity simulation of the Shuttle transient plume startup and liftoff environment. The present work details the simulation of the launch pad and mobile launch platform (MLP) with truncated solid rocket boosters (SRBs) moving in a prescribed liftoff trajectory derived from Shuttle flight measurements. Using Loci/CHEM, time-accurate RANS and hybrid RANS/LES simulations were performed for the timeframe T0+0 to T0+3.5 seconds, which consists of SRB startup to a vehicle altitude of approximately 90 feet above the MLP. Analysis of the transient flowfield focuses on the evolution of the SRB plumes in the MLP plume holes and the flame trench, impingement on the flame deflector, and especially impingment on the MLP deck resulting in upward flow which is a transport mechanism for debris. The results show excellent qualitative agreement with the visual record from past Shuttle flights, and comparisons to pressure measurements in the flame trench and on the MLP provide confidence in these simulation capabilities.

Earth Satellite Population Instability: Underscoring the Need for Debris Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, Jer-chyi; Johnson, N. L.

2006-01-01

A recent study by NASA indicates that the implementation of international orbital debris mitigation measures alone will not prevent a significant increase in the artificial Earth satellite population, beginning in the second half of this century. Whereas the focus of the aerospace community for the past 25 years has been on the curtailment of the generation of long-lived orbital debris, active remediation of the current orbital debris population should now be reconsidered to help preserve near-Earth space for future generations. In particular, we show in this paper that even if launch operations were to cease today, the population of space debris would continue to grow. Further, proposed remediation techniques do not appear to offer a viable solution. We therefore recommend that, while the aerospace community maintains the current debris-limiting mission regulations and postmission disposal procedures, future emphasis should be placed on finding new remediation technologies for solving this growing problem. Since the launch of Sputnik 1, space activities have created an orbital debris environment that poses increasing impact risks to existing space systems, including human space flight and robotic missions (1, 2). Currently, more than 9,000 Earth orbiting man-made objects (including many breakup fragments), with a combined mass exceeding 5 million kilograms, are tracked by the US Space Surveillance Network and maintained in the US satellite catalog (3-5). Three accidental collisions between cataloged satellites during the period from late 1991 to early 2005 have already been documented (6), although fortunately none resulted in the creation of large, trackable debris clouds. Several studies conducted during 1991-2001 demonstrated, with assumed future launch rates, the unintended growth potential of the Earth satellite population, resulting from random, accidental collisions among resident space objects (7-13). In some low Earth orbit (LEO) altitude regimes where the number density of satellites is above a critical spatial density, the production rate of new satellites (i.e., debris) due to collisions exceeds the loss of objects due to orbital decay. NASA s evolutionary satellite population model LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model), developed by the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center, is a high fidelity three-dimensional physical model that is capable of simulating the historical satellite environment, as well as the evolution of future debris populations (14, 15). The subject study assumed no rocket bodies and spacecraft were launched after December 2004, and no future disposal maneuvers were allowed for existing spacecraft, few of which currently have such a capability. The rate of satellite explosions would naturally decrease to zero within a few decades as the current satellite population ages. The LEGEND future projection adopts a Monte Carlo approach to simulate future on-orbit explosions and collisions. Within a given projection time step, once the explosion probability is estimated for an intact object, a random number is drawn and compared with the probability to determine if an explosion would occur. A similar procedure is applied to collisions for each pair of target and projectile involved within the same time step. Due to the nature of the Monte Carlo process, multiple projection runs must be performed and analyzed before one can draw reliable and meaningful conclusions from the outcome. A total of fifty, 200-year future projection Monte Carlo simulations were executed and evaluated (16).

Modeling of LEO Orbital Debris Populations in Centimeter and Millimeter Size Regimes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Y.-L.; Hill, . M.; Horstman, M.; Krisko, P. H.; Liou, J.-C.; Matney, M.; Stansbery, E. G.

2010-01-01

The building of the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, whether ORDEM2000 or its recently updated version ORDEM2010, uses as its foundation a number of model debris populations, each truncated at a minimum object-size ranging from 10 micron to 1 m. This paper discusses the development of the ORDEM2010 model debris populations in LEO (low Earth orbit), focusing on centimeter (smaller than 10 cm) and millimeter size regimes. Primary data sets used in the statistical derivation of the cm- and mm-size model populations are from the Haystack radar operated in a staring mode. Unlike cataloged objects of sizes greater than approximately 10 cm, ground-based radars monitor smaller-size debris only in a statistical manner instead of tracking every piece. The mono-static Haystack radar can detect debris as small as approximately 5 mm at moderate LEO altitudes. Estimation of millimeter debris populations (for objects smaller than approximately 6 mm) rests largely on Goldstone radar measurements. The bi-static Goldstone radar can detect 2- to 3-mm objects. The modeling of the cm- and mm-debris populations follows the general approach to developing other ORDEM2010-required model populations for various components and types of debris. It relies on appropriate reference populations to provide necessary prior information on the orbital structures and other important characteristics of the debris objects. NASA's LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris (LEGEND) model is capable of furnishing such reference populations in the desired size range. A Bayesian statistical inference process, commonly adopted in ORDEM2010 model-population derivations, changes a priori distribution into a posteriori distribution and thus refines the reference populations in terms of data. This paper describes key elements and major steps in the statistical derivations of the cm- and mm-size debris populations and presents results. Due to lack of data for near 1-mm sizes, the model populations of 1- to 3.16-mm objects are an empirical extension from larger debris. The extension takes into account the results of micro-debris (from 10 micron to 1 mm) population modeling that is based on shuttle impact data, in the hope of making a smooth transition between micron and millimeter size regimes. This paper also includes a brief discussion on issues and potential future work concerning the analysis and interpretation of Goldstone radar data.

Erosion and deposition on a debris-flow fan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Densmore, A. L.; Schuerch, P.; Rosser, N. J.; McArdell, B. W.

2011-12-01

The ability of a debris flow to entrain or deposit sediment controls the downstream evolution of flow volume, and ultimately dictates both the geomorphic impact of the flow and the potential hazard that it represents. Our understanding of the patterns of, and controls on, such flow volume changes remains extremely limited, however, partly due to a poor mechanistic grasp of the interactions between debris flows and their bed and banks. In addition, we lack a good understanding of the cumulative long-term effects of sequences of flows in a single catchment-fan system. Here we begin to address these issues by using repeated terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) to characterize the detailed surface change associated with the passage of multiple debris flows on the Illgraben fan, Switzerland. We calculate surface elevation change along a 300 m study reach, and from this derive the downfan rate of flow volume change, or lag rate; for comparison, we also derive the spatially-averaged lag rate over the entire ~2 km length of the fan. Lag rates are broadly comparable over both length scales, indicating that flow behavior does not vary significantly across the fan for most flows, but importantly we find that flow volume at the fan head is a poor predictor of volume at the fan toe. The sign and magnitude of bed elevation change scale with local flow depth; at flow depths < 2 m, erosion and deposition are approximately equally likely, but erosion becomes increasingly dominant for flow depths > 2 m. On the Illgraben fan, this depth corresponds to a basal shear stress of 3-4 kPa. Because flow depth is in part a function of channel cross-sectional topography, which varies strongly both within and between flows, this result indicates that erosion and deposition are likely to be highly dynamic. The dependence of flow volume change on both the channel topography and the flow history may thus complicate efforts to predict debris-flow inundation areas by simple flow routing. We then apply a 2d numerical model of debris-flow fan evolution to explore the key controls on debris-flow routing and topographic development over sequences of multiple flows. We find that fan topographic roughness plays an important role in both channel development and fan surface stability. We also find that, while first-order fan shape is largely insensitive to the input flow sequence, second-order variables such as the pattern of surface exposure ages and the distribution of channel characteristics hold more promise as robust recorders of past flow conditions. Further work is needed to understand the degree to which the TLS-derived (and Illgraben-specific) relationship between bed elevation change and flow depth can be applied in different settings, and to elucidate the role played by coarse debris in controlling patterns of erosion and deposition.

Geomorphic feedbacks between hillslopes and valley glaciers - implications for climate reconstructions and landscape evolution (GM Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture and Penck Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scherler, Dirk

2017-04-01

Glacial landscapes respond rapidly to global warming: glaciers retreat, permafrost degrades, and snow cover diminishes. These changes affect the stability of glacial landscapes, manifested by enhanced rockfall activity and more frequent catastrophic slope failures. Similar changes have accompanied deglaciation after the last glacial maximum, albeit of much greater magnitude, and with potentially important feedbacks between the dynamics of mountain glaciers and the landscapes they reside in. Here, I summarize recent observations from debris-covered valley glaciers and put them into context with a more general conceptual model of how glacial landscapes respond to warming periods. I will identify key research problems and provide preliminary results from ongoing studies. Ice-free areas that are located above glaciers generally consist of steep bedrock hillslopes (headwalls), where ambient temperatures are low enough to form bedrock permafrost, but the topography is too steep to accumulate significant amounts of ice on the surface. Because headwalls erode by rockfalls and rock avalanches that mobilize fractured bedrock, the rate-limiting factor is the growth of bedrock fractures. Current theory posits that bedrock fractures in cold regions primarily expand by segregation ice growth at subfreezing temperatures, which is known as frost cracking. Because frost cracking is temperature sensitive, there exists a temperature window of high frost-cracking intensity, which is thought to correspond to an elevation zone of enhanced sediment production. During warming periods, changes in the frost-cracking intensity combine with permafrost degradation and changing stresses due to ice thinning to destabilize steep headwalls and likely increase the flux of rocks that is shed to valley glaciers below. Even if temporarily buried in the ice, most rocks eventually melt out at the ice surface and form a supraglacial debris cover. Because debris cover thicker than 2 cm reduces conductive heat transport and thus ice melt rates, heavily debris-covered glaciers are longer and extent to lower and warmer elevations compared to debris-free glaciers, all other things being equal. Therefore, if warming induces an increase in headwall erosion rates, the increased supply of rocks should lead to an increase in supraglacial debris cover, which would reduce ice melting and slow down glacier retreat. Theoretically this effect could offset part of the warming-induced glacier shrinking. Large slope failures that result in a sudden increase in debris cover may even trigger glacier advances, as has been proposed for a few glaciers already. Such geomorphic feedbacks between headwalls and valley glaciers ought to be most pronounced in steep landscapes like the Himalaya, where existing glacial chronologies often lack spatial coherence. Some heavily debris-covered valley glaciers can be found to lie entirely below the regional climatic snowline where they are sustained by snow avalanches. Such glaciers typically flow at low velocities and their key role in glacial landscape evolution may lie in keeping the base of headwalls free from talus deposits and thereby sustain a steep and retreating headwall.

Dust in circumstellar disks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodmann, Jens

2006-02-01

This thesis presents observational and theoretical studies of the size and spatial distribution of dust particles in circumstellar disks. Using millimetre interferometric observations of optically thick disks around T Tauri stars, I provide conclusive evidence for the presence of millimetre- to centimetre-sized dust aggregates. These findings demonstrate that dust grain growth to pebble-sized dust particles is completed within less than 1 Myr in the outer disks around low-mass pre-main-sequence stars. The modelling of the infrared spectral energy distributions of several solar-type main-sequence stars and their associated circumstellar debris disks reveals the ubiquity of inner gaps devoid of substantial amounts of dust among Vega-type infrared excess sources. It is argued that the absence of circumstellar material in the inner disks is most likely the result of the gravitational influence of a large planet and/or a lack of dust-producing minor bodies in the dust-free region. Finally, I describe a numerical model to simulate the dynamical evolution of dust particles in debris disks, taking into account the gravitational perturbations by planets, photon radiation pressure, and dissipative drag forces due to the Poynting-Robertson effect and stellar wind. The validity of the code it established by several tests and comparison to semi-analytic approximations. The debris disk model is applied to simulate the main structural features of a ring of circumstellar material around the main-sequence star HD 181327. The best agreement between model and observation is achieved for dust grains a few tens of microns in size locked in the 1:1 resonance with a Jupiter-mass planet (or above) on a circular orbit.

Identifying Likely Disk-hosting M dwarfs with Disk Detective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silverberg, Steven; Wisniewski, John; Kuchner, Marc J.; Disk Detective Collaboration

2018-01-01

M dwarfs are critical targets for exoplanet searches. Debris disks often provide key information as to the formation and evolution of planetary systems around higher-mass stars, alongside the planet themselves. However, less than 300 M dwarf debris disks are known, despite M dwarfs making up 70% of the local neighborhood. The Disk Detective citizen science project has identified over 6000 new potential disk host stars from the AllWISE catalog over the past three years. Here, we present preliminary results of our search for new disk-hosting M dwarfs in the survey. Based on near-infrared color cuts and fitting stellar models to photometry, we have identified over 500 potential new M dwarf disk hosts, nearly doubling the known number of such systems. In this talk, we present our methodology, and outline our ongoing work to confirm systems as M dwarf disks.

The current evolution of complex high mountain debris-covered glacier systems and its relation with ground ice nature and distribution: the case of Rognes and Pierre Ronde area (Mont-Blanc range, France).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosson, Jean-Baptiste; Lambiel, Christophe

2014-05-01

The current climate forcing, through negative glacier mass balance and rockfall intensification, is leading to the rapid burring of many small glacier systems. When the debris mantle exceeds some centimeters of thickness, the climate control on ice melt is mitigated and delayed. As well, debris-covered glaciers respond to climate forcing in a complex way. This situation is emphasised in high mountain environments, where topo-climatic conditions, such as cold temperatures, amount of solid precipitation, duration of snow cover, nebulosity or shadow effect of rockwalls, limit the influence of rising air temperatures in the ground. Beside, due to Holocene climate history, glacier-permafrost interactions are not rare within the periglacial belt. Glacier recurrence may have removed and assimilated former ice-cemented sediments, the negative mass balance may have led to the formation of ice-cored rock glaciers and neopermafrost may have formed recently under cold climate conditions. Hence, in addition to sedimentary ice, high mountain debris-covered glacier systems can contain interstitial magmatic ice. Especially because of their position at the top of alpine cascade systems and of the amount of water and (unconsolidated) sediment involved, it is important to understand and anticipate the evolution of these complex landforms. Due to the continuous and thick debris mantle and to the common existence of dead ice in deglaciated areas, the current extent of debris-covered glacier can be difficult to point out. Thus, the whole system, according to Little Ice Age (LIA) extent, has sometimes to be investigated to understand the current response of glacier systems to the climate warming. In this context, two neighbouring sites, Rognes and Pierre Ronde systems (45°51'38''N, 6°48'40''E; 2600-3100m a.s.l), have been studied since 2011. These sites are almost completely debris-covered and only few ice outcrops in the upper slopes still witness the existence of former glaciers. Electrical resistivity tomographies, kinematic data and ground surface temperature show that heterogeneous responses to climate forcing are occurring despites their small areas (> 0.3 km2). This complex situation is related to Holocene climate history and especially to glacier systems evolution since LIA. The current dynamics depend of ground ice nature and distribution. Five main behaviours can be highlighted: - Debris covered glacier areas are the most active. Their responses to climate forcing are relatively fast, especially through massive ice melt-out each summer. - Ice-cored rock glacier areas are quite active. The existence of massive glacier ice under few meters of debris explain the important surface lowering during the snow free period . - Ice-cemented rock glacier areas are characterised by winter and summer subhorizontal downslope creeping. - Moraine areas containing dead ice have heterogeneous activities (directions and values of detected movements) related to the ice vanishing. - Deglaciated moraine areas are almost inactive, except modest superficial paraglacial rebalancing.

Simple Models of SL-9 Impact Plumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrington, J.; Deming, L. D.

1996-09-01

The impacts of the larger fragments of Comet Shomaker-Levy 9 on Jupiter left debris patterns of consistent appearance, likely caused by the landing of the observed impact plumes. Realistic fluid simulations of impact plume evolution may take months to years for even single computer runs. To provide guidance for these models and to elucidate the most basic aspects of the plumes, debris patterns, and their ultimate effect on the atmosphere, we have developed simple models that reproduce many of the key features. These Monte-Carlo models divide the plume into discrete mass elements, assign to them a velocity distribution based on numerical impact models, and follow their ballistic trajectories until they hit the planet. If particles go no higher than the observed ~ 3,000 km plume heights, they cannot reach the observed crescent pattern located ~ 10,000 km from the impact sites unless they slide horizontally after ballistic flight. By introducing parameterized sliding or higher trajectories, we can reproduce most of the observed impact features, including the central streak, the crescent, and the ephemeral ring located ~ 30,000 km from the impact sites. We also keep track of the amounts of energy and momentum delivered to the atmosphere as a function of time and location, for use in atmospheric models (D. Deming and J. Harrington, this meeting).

The Solid Rocket Motor Slag Population: Results of a Radar-based Regressive Statistical Evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horstman, Matthew F.; Xu, Yu-Lin

2008-01-01

Solid rocket motor (SRM) slag has been identified as a significant source of man-made orbital debris. The propensity of SRMs to generate particles of 100 m and larger has caused concern regarding their contribution to the debris environment. Radar observation, rather than in-situ gathered evidence, is currently the only measurable source for the NASA/ODPO model of the on-orbit slag population. This simulated model includes the time evolution of the resultant orbital populations using a historical database of SRM launches, propellant masses, and estimated locations and times of tail-off. However, due to the small amount of observational evidence, there can be no direct comparison to check the validity of this model. Rather than using the assumed population developed from purely historical and physical assumptions, a regressional approach was used which utilized the populations observed by the Haystack radar from 1996 to present. The estimated trajectories from the historical model of slag sources, and the corresponding plausible detections by the Haystack radar, were identified. Comparisons with observational data from the ensuing years were made, and the SRM model was altered with respect to size and mass production of slag particles to reflect the historical data obtained. The result is a model SRM population that fits within the bounds of the observed environment.

Space Shuttle and Launch Pad Lift-Off Debris Transport Analysis: SRB Plume-Driven

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

West, Jeff; Strutzenberg, Louis; Dougherty, Sam; Radke, Jerry; Liever, Peter

2007-01-01

This paper discusses the Space Shuttle Lift-Off model developed for potential Lift-Off Debris transport. A critical Lift-Off portion of the flight is defined from approximately 1.5 sec after SRB Ignition up to 'Tower Clear', where exhaust plume interactions with the Launch Pad occur. A CFD model containing the Space Shuttle and Launch Pad geometry has been constructed and executed. The CFD model works in conjunction with a debris particle transport model and a debris particle impact damage tolerance model. These models have been used to assess the effects of the Space Shuttle plumes, the wind environment, their interactions with the Launch Pad, and their ultimate effect on potential debris during Lift-Off. Emphasis in this paper is on potential debris that might be caught by the SRB plumes.

Characterization of Space Shuttle Ascent Debris Aerodynamics Using CFD Methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murman, Scott M.; Aftosmis, Michael J.; Rogers, Stuart E.

2005-01-01

An automated Computational Fluid Dynamics process for determining the aerodynamic Characteristics of debris shedding from the Space Shuttle Launch Vehicle during ascent is presented. This process uses Cartesian fully-coupled, six-degree-of-freedom simulations of isolated debris pieces in a Monte Carlo fashion to produce models for the drag and crossrange behavior over a range of debris shapes and shedding scenarios. A validation of the Cartesian methods against ballistic range data for insulating foam debris shapes at flight conditions, as well as validation of the resulting models, are both contained. These models are integrated with the existing shuttle debris transport analysis software to provide an accurate and efficient engineering tool for analyzing debris sources and their potential for damage.

Determining the Location, Number Density and Temporal Evolution of Streams of Hazardous Near-Earth Objects Using the Magnetic Signatures Produced in Destructive Collisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, H.; Russell, C. T.; Wei, H.; Delzanno, G. L.; Connors, M. G.

2014-12-01

Near-Earth objects (NEOs) of tens of meters in diameter are difficult to detect by optical methods from the Earth but they result in the most damage per year. Many of these bodies are produced in non-destructive collisions with larger well-characterized NEOs. After generation, the debris spreads forward and backward in a cocoon around the orbit of the parent body. Thereafter, scattering will occur due to gravitational perturbations when the debris stream passes near a planet even when the parent body has no such close approaches. Therefore "safe" NEOs which have no close encounters to the Earth for thousands of years may be accompanied by potentially hazardous co-orbiting debris. We have developed a technique to identify co-orbiting debris by detecting the magnetic signature produced when some of the debris suffers destructive collisions with meteoroids, which are numerous and can be as small as tens of centimeters in diameter. Clouds of nanoscale dust/gas particles released in such collisions can interact coherently with the solar wind electromagnetically. The resultant magnetic perturbations are readily identified when they pass spacecraft equipped with magnetometers. We can use such observations to obtain the spatial and size distribution as well as temporal variation of the debris streams. A test of this technique has been performed and debris streams both leading and trailing asteroid 138175 have been identified. There is a finite spread across the original orbit and most of the co-orbitals were tens of meters in diameter before the disruptive collisions. We estimate that there were tens of thousands of such co-orbiting objects, comprising only 1% of the original mass of the parent asteroid but greatly increasing the impact hazard. A loss of the co-orbitals since 1970s has been inferred from observations with a decay time consistent with that calculated from the existing collisional model [Grün et al., 1985]. Therefore disruptive collisions are the main loss mechanism of the co-orbiting debris associated with 138175. In summary, our technique helps us to identify which NEOs are accompanied by hazardous debris trails. Although our technique provides only the statistical properties, it indicates where high resolution optical surveys should be obtained in order to identify and track specific hazardous bodies.

EARLY-TYPE GALAXIES WITH TIDAL DEBRIS AND THEIR SCALING RELATIONS IN THE SPITZER SURVEY OF STELLAR STRUCTURE IN GALAXIES (S{sup 4}G)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Taehyun; Sheth, Kartik; Munoz-Mateos, Juan-Carlos

2012-07-01

Tidal debris around galaxies can yield important clues on their evolution. We have identified tidal debris in 11 early-type galaxies (T {<=} 0) from a sample of 65 early types drawn from the Spitzer Survey of Stellar Structure in Galaxies (S{sup 4}G). The tidal debris includes features such as shells, ripples, and tidal tails. A variety of techniques, including two-dimensional decomposition of galactic structures, were used to quantify the residual tidal features. The tidal debris contributes {approx}3%-10% to the total 3.6 {mu}m luminosity of the host galaxy. Structural parameters of the galaxies were estimated using two-dimensional profile fitting. We investigatemore » the locations of galaxies with tidal debris in the fundamental plane and Kormendy relation. We find that galaxies with tidal debris lie within the scatter of early-type galaxies without tidal features. Assuming that the tidal debris is indicative of recent gravitational interaction or merger, this suggests that these galaxies have either undergone minor merging events so that the overall structural properties of the galaxies are not significantly altered, or they have undergone a major merging events but already have experienced sufficient relaxation and phase mixing so that their structural properties become similar to those of the non-interacting early-type galaxies.« less

A Study on the Characteristics of the Structure of Vega's Debris Disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Tao; Ji, Jiang-hui

2013-10-01

The clumpy structure in the Vega's debris disk was reported at millimeter wavelengths previously, and attributed to the concentration of dust grains trapped in resonances with a potential high-eccentricity planet. However, current imaging at multi-wavelengths with higher sensitivity indicates that the Vega's debris disk has a smooth structure. But a planet orbiting Vega could not be neglected, and the present-day observations may place a severe constraint on the orbital parameters for the potential planet. Herein, we utilize the modi- fied MERCURY codes to numerically simulate the Vega system, which consists of a debris disk and a planet. In our simulations, the initial inner and outer boundaries of the debris disk are assumed to be 80 AU and 120 AU, respectively. The dust grains in the disk have the sizes from 10 μm to 100 μm, and the nearly coplanar orbits. From the outcomes, we show that the evolution of debris disk is consistent with recent observations, if there is no planet orbiting Vega. However, if Vega owns a planet with a high eccentricity (e.g., e = 0.6), the planet's semi- major axis cannot be larger than 60 AU, otherwise, an aggregation phenomenon will occur in the debris disk due to the existence of the postulated planet. In addition, the 2:1 mean motion resonances may play a significant role in forming the structure of debris disk.

Can Eccentric Debris Disks Be Long-lived? A First Numerical Investigation and Application to Zeta(exp 2) Reticuli

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Faramaz, V.; Beust, H.; Thebault, P.; Augereau, J.-C.; Bonsor, A.; delBurgo, C.; Ertel, S.; Marshall, J. P.; Milli, J.; Montesinos, B.;

On the connection of permafrost and debris flow activity in Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huber, Thomas; Kaitna, Roland

2016-04-01

Debris flows represent a severe hazard in alpine regions and typically result from a critical combination of relief energy, water, and sediment. Hence, besides water-related trigger conditions, the availability of abundant sediment is a major control on debris flows activity in alpine regions. Increasing temperatures due to global warming are expected to affect periglacial regions and by that the distribution of alpine permafrost and the depth of the active layer, which in turn might lead to increased debris flow activity and increased interference with human interests. In this contribution we assess the importance of permafrost on documented debris flows in the past by connecting the modeled permafrost distribution with a large database of historic debris flows in Austria. The permafrost distribution is estimated based on a published model approach and mainly depends of altitude, relief, and exposition. The database of debris flows includes more than 4000 debris flow events in around 1900 watersheds. We find that 27 % of watersheds experiencing debris flow activity have a modeled permafrost area smaller than 5 % of total area. Around 7 % of the debris flow prone watersheds have an area larger than 5 %. Interestingly, our first results indicate that watersheds without permafrost experience significantly less, but more intense debris flow events than watersheds with modeled permafrost occurrence. Our study aims to contribute to a better understanding of geomorphic activity and the impact of climate change in alpine environments.

Space Debris Modeling at NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Nicholas L.

2001-01-01

Since the Second European Conference on Space Debris in 1997, the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Johnson Space Center has undertaken a major effort to update and improve the principal software tools employed to model the space debris environment and to evaluate mission risks. NASA's orbital debris engineering model, ORDEM, represents the current and near-term Earth orbital debris population from the largest spacecraft to the smallest debris in a manner which permits spacecraft engineers and experimenters to estimate the frequency and velocity with which a satellite may be struck by debris of different sizes. Using expanded databases and a new program design, ORDEM2000 provides a more accurate environment definition combined with a much broader array of output products in comparison with its predecessor, ORDEM96. Studies of the potential long-term space debris environment are now conducted with EVOLVE 4.0, which incorporates significant advances in debris characterization and breakup modeling. An adjunct to EVOLVE 4.0, GEO EVOLVE has been created to examine debris issues near the geosynchronous orbital regime. In support of NASA Safety Standard 1740.14, which establishes debris mitigation guidelines for all NASA space programs, a set of evaluation tools called the Debris Assessment Software (DAS) is specifically designed for program offices to determine whether they are in compliance with NASA debris mitigation guidelines. DAS 1.5 has recently been released with improved WINDOWS compatibility and graphics functions. DAS 2.0 will incorporate guideline changes in a forthcoming revision to NASA Safety Standard 1740.14. Whereas DAS contains a simplified model to calculate possible risks associated with satellite reentries, NASA's higher fidelity Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT) has been upgraded to Version 5.0. With the growing awareness of the potential risks posed by uncontrolled satellite reentries to people and property on Earth, the application of both DAS and ORSAT has increased markedly in the past two years.

Molecular Gas in Young Debris Disks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moor, A.; Abraham, P.; Juhasz, A.; Kiss, Cs.; Pascucci, I.; Kospal, A.; Apai, D.; Henning, T.; Csengeri, T.; Grady, C.

2011-01-01

Gas-rich primordial disks and tenuous gas-poor debris disks are usually considered as two distinct evolutionary phases of the circumstellar matter. Interestingly, the debris disk around the young main-sequence star 49 Ceti possesses a substantial amount of molecular gas and possibly represents the missing link between the two phases. Motivated to understand the evolution of the gas component in circumstellar disks via finding more 49 Ceti-like systems, we carried out a CO J = 3-2 survey with the Atacama Pathfinder EXperiment, targeting 20 infrared-luminous debris disks. These systems fill the gap between primordial and old tenuous debris disks in terms of fractional luminosity. Here we report on the discovery of a second 49 Ceti-like disk around the 30 Myr old A3-type star HD21997, a member of the Columba Association. This system was also detected in the CO(2-1) transition, and the reliable age determination makes it an even clearer example of an old gas-bearing disk than 49 Ceti. While the fractional luminosities of HD21997 and 49 Ceti are not particularly high, these objects seem to harbor the most extended disks within our sample. The double-peaked profiles of HD21997 were reproduced by a Keplerian disk model combined with the LIME radiative transfer code. Based on their similarities, 49 Ceti and HD21997 may be the first representatives of a so far undefined new class of relatively old > or approx.8 Myr), gaseous dust disks. From our results, neither primordia1 origin nor steady secondary production from icy planetesima1s can unequivocally explain the presence of CO gas in the disk ofHD21997.

Variations in debris distribution and thickness on Himalayan debris-covered glaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibson, Morgan; Rowan, Ann; Irvine-Fynn, Tristram; Quincey, Duncan; Glasser, Neil

2016-04-01

Many Himalayan glaciers are characterised by extensive supraglacial debris coverage; in Nepal 33% of glaciers exhibit a continuous layer of debris covering their ablation areas. The presence of such a debris layer modulates a glacier's response to climatic change. However, the impact of this modulation is poorly constrained due to inadequate quantification of the impact of supraglacial debris on glacier surface energy balance. Few data exist to describe spatial and temporal variations in parameters such as debris thickness, albedo and surface roughness in energy balance calculations. Consequently, improved understanding of how debris affects Himalayan glacier ablation requires the assessment of surface energy balance model sensitivity to spatial and temporal variability in these parameters. Measurements of debris thickness, surface temperature, reflectance and roughness were collected across Khumbu Glacier during the pre- and post-monsoon seasons of 2014 and 2015. The extent of the spatial variation in each of these parameters are currently being incorporated into a point-based glacier surface energy balance model (CMB-RES, Collier et al., 2014, The Cryosphere), applied on a pixel-by-pixel basis to the glacier surface, to ascertain the sensitivity of glacier surface energy balance and ablation values to these debris parameters. A time series of debris thickness maps have been produced for Khumbu Glacier over a 15-year period (2000-2015) using Mihalcea et al.'s (2008, Cold Reg. Sci. Technol.) method, which utilised multi-temporal ASTER thermal imagery and our in situ debris surface temperature and thickness measurements. Change detection between these maps allowed the identification of variations in debris thickness that could be compared to discrete measurements, glacier surface velocity and morphology of the debris-covered area. Debris thickness was found to vary spatially between 0.1 and 4 metres within each debris thickness map, and temporally on the order of 1 to 2 m. Temporal variability was a result of differential surface lowering, spatial variability in glacier surface velocities and intermittent input of debris to the glacier surface through mass movement. Most debris thickening is seen in initially thin areas of debris (< 0.4 m) or within ~1 km of the glacier terminus. Surface energy balance modelling is currently underway to determine the effect of these variations in debris thickness, and other parameters mentioned previously. Future work will be to calculate debris transport flux on the surface of Khumbu Glacier using the time series of debris thickness maps. Debris flux and refined energy balance calculations will then be incorporated into a 3-D ice flow model to determine the response of Khumbu Glacier to debris transport and climatic changes.

Rainfall Induced Landslides in Brazil: Geomorphological Controls and Land-use Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, N. F.; Guimarães, R. F.; Gomes, R. A.; Carvalho, O. A., Jr.; Vieira, B. C.; Amaral, C. P.; Vargas, E. A., Jr.; Campos, T. M.

2009-12-01

Landslides are major processes controlling landscape evolution, especially in tropical environments, where thick talus and colluvial deposits are observed filling bedrock topographic hollows and larger valleys. Besides their geomorphological meaning, they also represent an enormous danger to man when soil-mantled steep hillslopes are densely occupied in urban areas. In Brazil, especially in southern and southeastern portions, due to the steep hilly topography, the high precipitation values and the expansion of the urbanization towards the hillslopes, debris flows are becoming more frequent. However, more recently, even in areas with sparse occupation and with no previous records of catastrophic landslides, like the ones in the southern states of Paraná and Santa Catarina, debris flows are taking place. This is the case of the recent rainfall triggered catastrophic debris flows that occurred last November in the area Morro do Baú, Santa Catarina state, by far, the most important event that took place in this region. In this location, besides the striking pluviometric records and the geological/geomorphological aspects, land-use changes (huge banana plantations and Pines forested areas) seems to have played a major role in amplifying the magnitude of the processes. However, the scientific community in Brazil seems to be still more concerned with small shallow landslides. Although a lot of effort has already been made towards a better understanding of the conditioning factors controlling landslide initiation at a specific site (hillslope scale), it is urgent to improve our ability in predicting landslide instability in larger areas (drainage basin scale), where positive and negative feedbacks between the hillslope and the channel segments play a major role. Modeling hillslope stability, of course, is not an easy task, especially when dealing with large drainage basin. Consequently, different approaches should be combined in order to attain success in prediction landslide hazards. In this study, based on detailed field mapping and modeling, we compare the role played by the geomorphological and geological factors in defining the location of major debris flows in Brazil. Besides, we discuss the effects of land-use changes, especially the introduction of huge banana plantations on steep slopes, on soil hydrology and landsliding. At last, we show some modeling results obtained in combining the models SHALSTAB and FLO-2D to simulate the catastrophic debris flows that took place in Rio de Janeiro city in 1996.

Calibration of numerical models for small debris flows in Yosemite Valley, California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bertolo, P.; Wieczorek, G.F.

2005-01-01

This study compares documented debris flow runout distances with numerical simulations in the Yosemite Valley of California, USA, where about 15% of historical events of slope instability can be classified as debris flows and debris slides (Wieczorek and Snyder, 2004). To model debris flows in the Yosemite Valley, we selected six streams with evidence of historical debris flows; three of the debris flow deposits have single channels, and the other three split their pattern in the fan area into two or more channels. From field observations all of the debris flows involved coarse material, with only very small clay content. We applied the one dimensional DAN (Dynamic ANalysis) model (Hungr, 1995) and the two-dimensional FLO2D model (O'Brien et al., 1993) to predict and compare the runout distance and the velocity of the debris flows observed in the study area. As a first step, we calibrated the parameters for the two softwares through the back analysis of three debris- flows channels using a trial-and-error procedure starting with values suggested in the literature. In the second step we applied the selected values to the other channels, in order to evaluate their predictive capabilities. After parameter calibration using three debris flows we obtained results similar to field observations We also obtained a good agreement between the two models for velocities. Both models are strongly influenced by topography: we used the 30 m cell size DTM available for the study area, that is probably not accurate enough for a highly detailed analysis, but it can be sufficient for a first screening. European Geosciences Union ?? 2005 Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

A numerical modeling investigation of erosion and debris flows following the 2016 Fish Fire in the San Gabriel Mountains, CA, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, H.; McGuire, L.; Rengers, F. K.; Kean, J. W.; Staley, D. M.

2017-12-01

Wildfire significantly changes the hydrological characteristics of soil for a period of several years and increases the likelihood of flooding and debris flows during high-intensity rainfall in steep watersheds. Hazards related to post-fire flooding and debris flows increase as populations expand into mountainous areas that are susceptible to wildfire, post-wildfire flooding, and debris flows. However, our understanding of post-wildfire debris flows is limited due to a paucity of direct observations and measurements, partially due to the remote locations where debris flows tend to initiate. In these situations, numerical modeling becomes a very useful tool for studying post-wildfire debris flows. Research based on numerical modeling improves our understanding of the physical mechanisms responsible for the increase in erosion and consequent formation of debris flows in burned areas. In this contribution, we study changes in sediment transport efficiency with time since burning by combining terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) surveys of a hillslope burned during the 2016 Fish Fire with numerical modeling of overland flow and sediment transport. We also combine the numerical model with measurements of debris flow timing to explore relationships between post-wildfire rainfall characteristics, soil infiltration capacity, hillslope erosion, and debris flow initiation at the drainage basin scale. Field data show that an initial rill network developed on the hillslope, and became more efficient over time as the overall rill density decreased. Preliminary model results suggest that this can be achieved when flow driven detachment mechanisms dominate and raindrop-driven detachment is minimized. Results also provide insight into the hydrologic and geomorphic conditions that lead to debris flow initiation within recently burned areas.

Sampling supraglacial debris thickness using terrestrial photogrammetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholson, Lindsey; Mertes, Jordan

2017-04-01

The melt rate of debris-covered ice differs to that of clean ice primarily as a function of debris thickness. The spatial distribution of supraglacial debris thickness must therefore be known in order to understand how it is likely to impact glacier behaviour, and meltwater contribution to local hydrological resources and global sea level rise. However, practical means of determining debris cover thickness remain elusive. In this study we explore the utility of terrestrial photogrammetry to produce high resolution, scaled and texturized digital terrain models of debris cover exposures above ice cliffs as a means of quantifying and characterizing debris thickness. Two Nikon D5000 DSLRs with Tamron 100mm lenses were used to photograph a sample area of the Ngozumpa glacier in the Khumbu Himal of Nepal in April 2016. A Structure from Motion workflow using Agisoft Photoscan software was used to generate a surface models with <10cm resolution. A Trimble Geo7X differential GPS with Zephyr antenna, along with a local base station, was used to precisely measure marked ground control points to scale the photogrammetric surface model. Measurements of debris thickness along the exposed cliffline were made from this scaled model, assuming that the ice surface at the debris-ice boundary is horizontal, and these data are compared to 50 manual point measurements along the same clifftops. We conclude that sufficiently high resolution photogrammetry, with precise scaling information, provides a useful means to determine debris thickness at clifftop exposures. The resolution of the possible measurements depends on image resolution, the accuracy of the ground control points and the computational capacity to generate centimetre scale surface models. Application of such techniques to sufficiently high resolution imagery from UAV-borne cameras may offer a powerful means of determining debris thickness distribution patterns over debris covered glacier termini.

ORDEM 3.0 and the Risk of High-Density Debris

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matney, Mark; Anz-Meador, Philip

2014-01-01

NASA’s Orbital Debris Engineering Model was designed to calculate orbital debris fluxes on spacecraft in order to assess collision risk. The newest of these models, ORDEM 3.0, has a number of features not present in previous models. One of the most important is that the populations and fluxes are now broken out into material density groups. Previous models concentrated on debris size alone, but a particle’s mass and density also determine the amount of damage it can cause. ORDEM 3.0 includes a high-density component, primarily consisting of iron/steel particles that drive much of the risk to spacecraft. This paper will outline the methods that were used to separate and identify the different densities of debris, and how these new densities affect the overall debris flux and risk.

Seamount subduction underneath an accretionary wedge: modelling mass wasting and wedge collapse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mannu, Utsav; Ueda, Kosuke; Willett, Sean; Gerya, Taras; Strasser, Michael

2017-04-01

Seamounts (h >1 km) and knolls (h = 500 m-1000 m) cover about one-fifth of the total ocean floor area. These topographical highs of the ocean floor eventually get subducted. Subduction of these topographical features leads to severe deformation of the overriding plate and can cause extensive tectonic erosion and mass wasting of the frontal prism, which can ultimately cause a forearc wedge collapse. Large submarine landslides and the corresponding wedge collapse have previously been reported, for instance, in the northern part of the Hikurangi margin where the landslide is known as the giant Ruatoria debris avalanche, and have also been frequently reported in several seismic sections along the Costa Rica margin. Size and frequency relation of landslides suggest that the average size of submarine landslides in margins with rough subducting plates tends to be larger. However, this observation has not yet been tested or explained by physical models. In numerical subduction models, landslides take place, if at all, on a much larger timescale (in the order of 104-105 years, depending on the time steps of the model) than in natural cases. On the other hand, numerical models simulating mass wasting events such as avalanches and submarine landslides, typically model single events at a much smaller spatio-temporal domain, and do not consider long-term occurrence patterns of freely forming landslides. In this contribution, we present a multi-scale nested numerical approach to emulate short-term landslides within long-term progressive subduction. The numerical approach dynamically produces instantaneous submarine landslides and the resulting debris flow in the spatially and temporally refined inner model. Then we apply these convoluted changes in topography (e.g. due to the submarine landslide etc.) back to an outer larger-scale model instance that addresses wedge evolution. We use this approach to study the evolution of the accretionary wedge during seamount subduction.

Material Density Distribution of Small Debris in Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krisko, P. H.; Xu, Y.-l.; Opiela, J. N.; Hill, N. M.; Matney, M. J.

2008-01-01

Over 200 spacecraft and rocket body breakups in Earth orbit have populated that regime with debris fragments in the sub-micron through meter size range. Though the largest debris fragments can cause significant collisional damage to active (operational) spacecraft, these are few and trackable by radar. Fragments on the order of a millimeter to a centimeter in size are as yet untrackable. But this smaller debris can result in damage to critical spacecraft systems and, under the worst conditions, fragmenting collision events. Ongoing research at the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office on the sources of these small fragments has focused on the material components of spacecraft and rocket bodies and on breakup event morphology. This has led to fragment material density estimates, and also the beginnings of shape categorizations. To date the NASA Standard Breakup Model has not considered specific material density distinctions of small debris. The basis of small debris in that model is the fourth hypervelocity impact event of the Satellite Orbital Debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT) series. This test targeted a flight-ready, U.S. Transit navigation satellite with a solid aluminum sphere impactor. Results in this event yield characteristic length (size) and area-to-mass distributions of fragments smaller than 10 cm in the NASA model. Recent re-analysis of the SOCIT4 small fragment dataset highlighted the material-specific characteristics of metals and non-metals. Concurrent analysis of Space Shuttle in-situ impact data showed a high percentage of aluminum debris in shuttle orbit regions. Both analyses led to the definition of three main on-orbit debris material density categories -low density (< 2 g/cc), medium density (2 to 6 g/cc), and high density (> 6 g/cc). This report considers the above studies in an explicit extension of the NASA Standard Breakup Model where separate material densities for debris are generated and these debris fragments are propagated in Earth orbit. The near Earth environment is thus parameterized by debris density percentages within subsections of that environment. This model version is used in the upgraded NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM).

Orbital debris: Technical issues and future directions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, Andrew (Editor)

1992-01-01

An international conference on orbital debris sponsored jointly by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, NASA, and the Department of Defense, was held in Baltimore, Maryland, 16-19 Apr. 1990. Thirty-three papers were presented. The papers were grouped into the areas of measurements, modeling, and implications of orbital debris for space flight. New radar and optical measurements of orbital debris were presented that showed the existence of a large population of small debris. Modeling of potential future environments showed that runaway growth of the debris population from random collisions was a real possibility. New techniques for shielding against orbital debris and methods for removal of satellites from orbit were discussed.

Debris-covered Himalayan glaciers under a changing climate: observations and modelling of Khumbu Glacier, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowan, Ann; Quincey, Duncan; Egholm, David; Gibson, Morgan; Irvine-Fynn, Tristram; Porter, Philip; Glasser, Neil

2016-04-01

Many mountain glaciers are characterised in their lower reaches by thick layers of rock debris that insulate the glacier surface from solar radiation and atmospheric warming. Supraglacial debris modifies the response of these glaciers to climate change compared to glaciers with clean-ice surfaces. However, existing modelling approaches to predicting variations in the extent and mass balance of debris-covered glaciers have relied on numerical models that represent the processes governing glaciers with clean-ice surfaces, and yield conflicting results. Moreover, few data exist describing the mass balance of debris-covered glaciers and many observations are only made over short periods of time, but these data are needed to constrain and validate numerical modelling experiments. To investigate the impact of supraglacial debris on the response of a glacier to climate change, we developed a numerical model that couples the flow of ice and debris to include important feedbacks between mass balance, ice flow and debris accumulation. We applied this model to a large debris-covered Himalayan glacier - Khumbu Glacier in the Everest region of Nepal. Our results demonstrate that supraglacial debris prolongs the response of the glacier to warming air temperatures and causes lowering of the glacier surface in situ, concealing the magnitude of mass loss when compared with estimates based on glacierised area. Since the Little Ice Age, the volume of Khumbu Glacier has reduced by 34%, while glacier area has reduced by only 6%. We predict a further decrease in glacier volume of 8-10% by AD2100 accompanied by dynamic and physical detachment of the debris-covered tongue from the active glacier within the next 150 years. For five months during the 2014 summer monsoon, we measured temperature profiles through supraglacial debris and proglacial discharge on Khumbu Glacier. We found that temperatures at the ice surface beneath 0.4-0.7 m of debris were sufficient to promote considerable amounts of ablation. Moreover, although temperatures within the debris layer decreased with depth at the start of the monsoon, later in the monsoon season thicker debris (0.7 m) appeared to retain more heat close to the glacier surface than thin debris (0.4 m). Remote sensing observations indicate that Khumbu Glacier is losing mass more rapidly than is predicted by our model, particularly as ice cliffs and supraglacial ponds enhance ablation locally, and our field observations suggest an additional mechanism for enhanced mass loss.

ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krisko, Paula H.; Flegel, S.

2010-01-01

The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA s ORDEM2010 and ESA s MASTER-2009, have been publicly released. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in near-Earth orbit. The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris but are still large enough to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. This paper details the 1 mm to 1 cm orbital debris populations of both ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009; their sources (both known and presumed), current supporting data and theory, and methods of population analysis. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are also presented and discussed within the context of each model.

Orbital Debris Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, J. C.

2012-01-01

Presentation outlne: (1) The NASA Orbital Debris (OD) Engineering Model -- A mathematical model capable of predicting OD impact risks for the ISS and other critical space assets (2) The NASA OD Evolutionary Model -- A physical model capable of predicting future debris environment based on user-specified scenarios (3) The NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model -- A model describing the outcome of a satellite breakup (explosion or collision)

GIS-based modeling of debris flow processes in an Alpine catchment, Antholz valley, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandmeier, Christine; Damm, Bodo; Terhorst, Birgit

2010-05-01

Debris flows are frequent natural hazards in mountain regions, which seriously can threat human lives and economic values. In the European Alps the occurrence of debris flows might even increase with respect to climate change, including permafrost degradation, glacier retreat and variable precipitation patterns. Thus, detailed understanding of process parameters and spatial distribution of debris flows is necessary to take appropriate protection measures for risk assessment. In this context, numerical models have been developed and applied successfully for simulation and prediction of debris-flow hazards and related process areas. In our study a GIS-based model is applied in an alpine catchment to address the following questions: Where are potential initiating areas of debris flows? How much material can be mobilized? What is the influence of topography and precipitation? The study area is located in the Antholz valley in the eastern Alps of Northern Italy. The investigated catchment of the Klammbach creek comprises 6.5 km² and is divided into two sub-catchments. Geologically it is dominated by metamorphic rock and altitudes range between 1310 and 3270 m. In summer 2005 a debris flow of more than 100000 m³ took place, originating from a steep, sparsely vegetated debris cone in the western part of the catchment. According to a regional study, the lower permafrost boundary in this area has risen by 250 m. In a first step, during a field survey, geomorphological mapping was performed, several channel cross-sections were measured and sediment samples were taken. Using mapping results and aerial images, a geomorphological map was created. In further steps, results from the field work, the geomorphological map and existing digital data sets, including a digital elevation model with 2.5 m resolution, are used to derive input data for the modeling of debris flow processes. The model framework ‘r.debrisflow' based on GRASS GIS is applied (Mergili, 2008*), as it is capable of simulating the potential spatial patterns of debris flow deposition, as well as their initiation and movement. Furthermore it is a freely available and opensource software and can thus be improved and extended. ‘r.debrisflow' couples a hydraulic, a slope stability, a sediment transport and a debris flow runout model, which are combined differently in 6 simulation modes. In a first step, model parameters are calibrated using the runout only mode with known parameters of the 2005 debris flow. Finally, the full mode will be used to evaluate the debris-flow potential of the whole catchment. First results from the geomorphological mapping reveal numerous surface forms, like levees, debris flow lobes or scars that indicate past and recent debris flow activity in the area. In both sub-catchments, there are large areas of unconsolidated, sparsely or unvegetated sediments, surrounded by high rock walls, which conduct precipitation rapidly into the debris. The two sub-catchments, however, have different topographic characteristics, which can be analyzed with the model in more detail. In a next step, the potential starting areas of future debris flows shall be identified and the potential amount of mobilized material shall be estimated by the model. *Mergili, M. (2008): Integrated modelling of debris flows with Open Source GIS. Ph.D. thesis. University of Innsbruck. http://www.uibk.ac.at/geographie/personal/mergili/dissertation.pdf

Assessing the debris flow run-out frequency of a catchment in the French Alps using a parameterization analysis with the RAMMS numerical run-out model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussin, H. Y.; Luna, B. Quan; van Westen, C. J.; Christen, M.; Malet, J.-P.; van Asch, Th. W. J.

2012-04-01

Debris flows occurring in the European Alps frequently cause significant damage to settlements, power-lines and transportation infrastructure which has led to traffic disruptions, economic loss and even death. Estimating the debris flow run-out extent and the parameter uncertainty related to run-out modeling are some of the difficulties found in the Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of debris flows. Also, the process of the entrainment of material into a debris flow is until now not completely understood. Debris flows observed in the French Alps entrain 5 - 50 times the amount of volume compared to the initially mobilized source volume. In this study we analyze a debris flow that occurred in 2003 at the Faucon catchment in the Barcelonnette Basin (Southern French Alps). The analysis was carried out using the Voellmy rheology and an entrainment model imbedded in the RAMMS 2D numerical modeling software. The historic event was back calibrated based on source, entrainment and deposit volumes, including the run-out distance, velocities and deposit heights of the debris flow. This was then followed by a sensitivity analysis of the rheological and entrainment parameters to produce 120 debris flow scenarios leading to a frequency assessment of the run-out distance and deposit height at the debris fan. The study shows that the Voellmy frictional parameters mainly influence the run-out distance and velocity of the flow, while the entrainment parameter has a major impact on the debris flow height. The frequency assessment of the 120 simulated scenarios further gives an indication on the most likely debris flow run-out extents and heights for this catchment. Such an assessment can be an important link between the rheological model parameters and the spatial probability of the run-out for the Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) of debris flows.

Fast and Slow Precession of Gaseous Debris Disks around Planet-accreting White Dwarfs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miranda, Ryan; Rafikov, Roman R.

2018-04-01

Spectroscopic observations of some metal-rich white dwarfs (WDs), believed to be polluted by planetary material, reveal the presence of compact gaseous metallic disks orbiting them. The observed variability of asymmetric, double-peaked emission-line profiles in about half of such systems could be interpreted as the signature of precession of an eccentric gaseous debris disk. The variability timescales—from decades down to 1.4 year (recently inferred for the debris disk around HE 1349–2305)—are in rough agreement with the rate of general relativistic (GR) precession in the test-particle limit. However, it has not been demonstrated that this mechanism can drive such a fast, coherent precession of a radially extended (out to 1 {R}ȯ ) gaseous disk mediated by internal stresses (pressure). Here, we use the linear theory of eccentricity evolution in hydrodynamic disks to determine several key properties of eccentric modes in gaseous debris disks around WDs. We find a critical dependence of both the precession period and radial eccentricity distribution of the modes on the inner disk radius, r in. For small inner radii, {r}in}≲ (0.2{--}0.4) {R}ȯ , the modes are GR-driven, with periods of ≈1–10 year. For {r}in}≳ (0.2{--}0.4) {R}ȯ , the modes are pressure dominated, with periods of ≈3–20 year. Correspondence between the variability periods and inferred inner radii of the observed disks is in general agreement with this trend. In particular, the short period of HE 1349–2305 is consistent with its small r in. Circum-WD debris disks may thus serve as natural laboratories for studying the evolution of eccentric gaseous disks.

Complexity of the Earth's space-atmosphere interaction region (SAIR) response to the solar flux at 10.7 cm as seen through the evaluation of five solar cycle two-line element (TLE) records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molaverdikhani, Karan; Ajabshirizadeh, Ali; Davoudifar, Pantea; Lashkanpour, Majid

2016-09-01

Orbital debris are long-standing threats to space systems. They also contribute to the flux of macroscopic particles into the Earth's atmosphere and eventually affects environmental processes across several other related regions. As impactful space debris may be, debris along with other Low Earth Orbit (LEO) orbiting objects, also serve as valuable long-monitoring probes to deduce the properties of geospace environment in-situ. We define the Daily Decay Rate (DDR) as a suitable indicator of how the Earth's space-atmosphere interaction region (SAIR) responds to solar activity and how solar activity directly affects the orbital evolution of a LEO orbiter. We present a computationally simplified technique that simultaneously solves the motion equations for DDR and cross-sectional area to mass ratio (A/m) from consecutive TLE records. By evaluating more than 50 million TLE records we estimate A/m of 15,307 NORAD-indexed objects and determine how DDR varies. We observe the thermospheric ;natural thermostat; in our results, consistent with previous studies. We compare the observed DDRs with two models based on NRLMSISE-00 and DTM-2013, and present evidence the models display a systemic altitudinal bias. We propose several possibilities to explain this altitudinal bias including the overestimated CD at low altitudes in our models (presumably due to the despinning effect of perturbing forces on the orbiting objects), and incomplete and limited coverage of in-situ observations at high solar activity. We conclude that the density models do not reliably reproduce the densities and atmospheric-thermospheric behaviors at high solar active conditions, especially for F10.7 cm above 300 sfu.

Studies of Planet Formation Using a Hybrid N-Body + Planetesimal Code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenyon, Scott J.

2004-01-01

The goal of our proposal was to use a hybrid multi-annulus planetesimal/n-body code to examine the planetesimal theory, one of the two main theories of planet formation. We developed this code to follow the evolution of numerous 1 m to 1 km planetesimals as they collide, merge, and grow into full-fledged planets. Our goal was to apply the code to several well-posed, topical problems in planet formation and to derive observational consequences of the models. We planned to construct detailed models to address two fundamental issues: (1) icy planets: models for icy planet formation will demonstrate how the physical properties of debris disks - including the Kuiper Belt in our solar system - depend on initial conditions and input physics; and (2) terrestrial planets: calculations following the evolution of 1-10 km planetesimals into Earth-mass planets and rings of dust will provide a better understanding of how terrestrial planets form and interact with their environment.

Modeling sediment concentration in debris flow by Tsallis entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Vijay P.; Cui, Huijuan

2015-02-01

Debris flow is a natural hazard that occurs in landscapes having high slopes, such as mountainous areas. It can be so powerful that it destroys whatever comes in its way, that is, it can kill people and animals; decimate roads, bridges, railway tracks, homes and other property; and fill reservoirs. Owing to its frequent occurrence, it is receiving considerable attention these days. Of fundamental importance in debris flow modeling is the determination of concentration of debris (or sediment) in the flow. The usual approach to determining debris flow concentration is either empirical or hydraulic. Both approaches are deterministic and therefore say nothing about the uncertainty associated with the sediment concentration in the flow. This paper proposes to model debris flow concentration using the Tsallis entropy theory. Verification of the entropy-based distribution of debris flow concentration using the data and equations reported in the literature shows that the Tsallis entropy-proposed model is capable of mimicking the field observed concentration and has potential for practical application.

Incorporating moisture content in modeling the surface energy balance of debris-covered Changri Nup Glacier, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giese, Alexandra; Boone, Aaron; Morin, Samuel; Lejeune, Yves; Wagnon, Patrick; Dumont, Marie; Hawley, Robert

2016-04-01

Glaciers whose ablation zones are covered in supraglacial debris comprise a significant portion of glaciers in High Mountain Asia and two-thirds in the South Central Himalaya. Such glaciers evade traditional proxies for mass balance because they are difficult to delineate remotely and because they lose volume via thinning rather than via retreat. Additionally, their surface energy balance is significantly more complicated than their clean counterparts' due to a conductive heat flux from the debris-air interface to the ice-debris boundary, where melt occurs. This flux is a function of the debris' thickness; thermal, radiative, and physical properties; and moisture content. To date, few surface energy balance models have accounted for debris moisture content and phase changes despite the fact that they are well-known to affect fluxes of mass, latent heat, and conduction. In this study, we introduce a new model, ISBA-DEB, which is capable of solving not only the heat equation but also moisture transport and retention in the debris. The model is based upon Meteo-France's Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA) soil and vegetation model, significantly adapted for debris and coupled with the snowpack model Crocus within the SURFEX platform. We drive the model with continuous ERA-Interim reanalysis data, adapted to the local topography (i.e. considering local elevation and shadowing) and downscaled and de-biased using 5 years of in-situ meteorological data at Changri Nup glacier [(27.859N, 86.847E)] in the Khumbu Himal. The 1-D model output is then evaluated through comparison with measured temperature in and ablation under a 10-cm thick debris layer on Changri Nup. We have found that introducing a non-equilibrium model for water flow, rather than using the mixed-form Richard's equation alone, promotes greater consistency with moisture observations. This explicit incorporation of moisture processes improves simulation of the snow-debris-ice column's temperature gradient - and, thus, energy fluxes - through time.

Troughs on Martian Ice Sheets: Analysis of Their Closure and Mass Balance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fountain, A.; Kargel, J.; Lewis, K.; MacAyeal, D.; Pfeffer, T.; Zwally, J.

2000-01-01

At the Copenhagen workshop on Martian polar processes, Ralf Greve commented that the flow regime surrounding scarps and troughs of the Martian polar ice sheets cannot be modeled using traditional "plan view" ice-sheet models. Such models are inadequate because they typically use reduced equations that embody certain simplifications applicable only to terrestrial ice sheets where the upper ice sheet surface is smooth. In response to this suggestion, we have constructed a 2-dimensional, time dependent "side view" (two spatial dimensions: one horizontal, one vertical) model of scarp closure that is designed to overcome the difficulties described by Greve. The purpose of the model is to evaluate the scales of stress variation and styles of flow closure so as to estimate errors that may be encountered by "plan view" models. We show that there may be avenues whereby the complications associated with scarp closure can be overcome in "plan view" models through appropriate parameterizations of 3-dimensional effects. Following this, we apply the flow model to simulate the evolution of a typical scarp on the North Polar Cap of Mars. Our simulations investigate: (a) the role of "radiation trapping" (see our companion abstract) in creating and maintaining "spiral-like" scarps on the ice sheet, (b) the consequences of different flowlaws and ice compositions on scarp evolution and, in particular, scarp age, and (c) the role of dust and debris in scarp evolution.

Orbital Debris Research in the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stansbery, Gene

2009-01-01

The presentation includes information about growth of the satellite population, the U.S. Space Surveillance Network, tracking and catalog maintenance, Haystack and HAX radar observation, Goldstone radar, the Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST), spacecraft surface examinations and sample of space shuttle impacts. GEO/LEO observations from Kwajalein Atoll, NASA s Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2008), a LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris Model (LEGEND), Debris Assessment Software (DAS) 2.0, the NASA/JSC BUMPER-II meteoroid/debris threat assessment code, satellite reentry risk assessment, optical size and shape determination, work on more complicated fragments, and spectral studies.

Sensitivity Analysis of Launch Vehicle Debris Risk Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gee, Ken; Lawrence, Scott L.

2010-01-01

As part of an analysis of the loss of crew risk associated with an ascent abort system for a manned launch vehicle, a model was developed to predict the impact risk of the debris resulting from an explosion of the launch vehicle on the crew module. The model consisted of a debris catalog describing the number, size and imparted velocity of each piece of debris, a method to compute the trajectories of the debris and a method to calculate the impact risk given the abort trajectory of the crew module. The model provided a point estimate of the strike probability as a function of the debris catalog, the time of abort and the delay time between the abort and destruction of the launch vehicle. A study was conducted to determine the sensitivity of the strike probability to the various model input parameters and to develop a response surface model for use in the sensitivity analysis of the overall ascent abort risk model. The results of the sensitivity analysis and the response surface model are presented in this paper.

Zodiac II: Debris Disk Science from a Balloon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bryden, Geoffrey; Traub, Wesley; Roberts, Lewis C., Jr.; Bruno, Robin; Unwin, Stephen; Backovsky, Stan; Brugarolas, Paul; Chakrabarti, Supriya; Chen, Pin; Hillenbrand, Lynne;

Zodiac II: Debris Disk Science from a Balloon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bryden, Geoffrey; Traub, Wesley; Roberts, Lewis C., Jr.; Bruno, Robin; Unwin, Stephen; Backovsky, Stan; Brugarolas, Paul; Chakrabarti, Supriya; Chen, Pin; Hillenbrand, Lynne;

Probabilistic forecasts of debris-flow hazard at the regional scale with a combination of models.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malet, Jean-Philippe; Remaître, Alexandre

2015-04-01

Debris flows are one of the many active slope-forming processes in the French Alps, where rugged and steep slopes mantled by various slope deposits offer a great potential for triggering hazardous events. A quantitative assessment of debris-flow hazard requires the estimation, in a probabilistic framework, of the spatial probability of occurrence of source areas, the spatial probability of runout areas, the temporal frequency of events, and their intensity. The main objective of this research is to propose a pipeline for the estimation of these quantities at the region scale using a chain of debris-flow models. The work uses the experimental site of the Barcelonnette Basin (South French Alps), where 26 active torrents have produced more than 150 debris-flow events since 1850 to develop and validate the methodology. First, a susceptibility assessment is performed to identify the debris-flow prone source areas. The most frequently used approach is the combination of environmental factors with GIS procedures and statistical techniques, integrating or not, detailed event inventories. Based on a 5m-DEM and derivatives, and information on slope lithology, engineering soils and landcover, the possible source areas are identified with a statistical logistic regression model. The performance of the statistical model is evaluated with the observed distribution of debris-flow events recorded after 1850 in the study area. The source areas in the three most active torrents (Riou-Bourdoux, Faucon, Sanières) are well identified by the model. Results are less convincing for three other active torrents (Bourget, La Valette and Riou-Chanal); this could be related to the type of debris-flow triggering mechanism as the model seems to better spot the open slope debris-flow source areas (e.g. scree slopes), but appears to be less efficient for the identification of landslide-induced debris flows. Second, a susceptibility assessment is performed to estimate the possible runout distance with a process-based model. The MassMov-2D code is a two-dimensional model of mud and debris flow dynamics over complex topography, based on a numerical integration of the depth-averaged motion equations using shallow water approximation. The run-out simulations are performed for the most active torrents. The performance of the model has been evaluated by comparing modelling results with the observed spreading areas of several recent debris flows. Existing data on the debris flow volume, input discharge and deposits were used to back-analyze those events and estimate the values of the model parameters. Third, hazard is estimated on the basis of scenarios computed in a probabilistic way, for volumes in the range 20'000 to 350'000 m3, and for several combinations of rheological parameters. In most cases, the simulations indicate that the debris flows cause significant overflowing on the alluvial fans for volumes exceeding 100'000 m3 (height of deposits > 2 m, velocities > 5 m.s-1). Probabilities of debris flow runout and debris flow intensities are then computed for each terrain units.

Landscape aridity, fire severity and rainfall intensity as controls on debris flow frequency after the 2009 Black Saturday Wildfires in Victoria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyman, Petter; Sherwin, Christopher; Sheridan, Gary; Lane, Patrick

2015-04-01

This study uses aerial imagery and field surveys to develop a statistical model for determining debris flow susceptibility in a landscape with variable terrain, soil and vegetation properties. A measure of landscape scale debris flow response was obtained by recording all debris flow affected drainage lines in the first year after fire in a ~258 000 ha forested area that was burned by the 2009 Black Saturday Wildfire in Victoria. A total of 12 500 points along the drainage network were sampled from catchments ranging in size from 0.0001 km2to 75 km2. Local slope and the attributes of the drainage areas (including the spatially averaged peak intensity) were extracted for each sample point. A logistic regression was used to model how debris flow susceptibility varies with the normalised burn ratio (dNBR, from Landsat imagery), rainfall intensity (from rainfall radar), slope (from DEM) and aridity (from long-term radiation, temperature and rainfall data).The model of debris flow susceptibility produced a good fit with the observed debris flow response of drainage networks within the burned area and was reliable in distinguishing between drainage lines which produced debris flows and those which didn't. The performance of the models was tested through multiple iterations of fitting and testing using unseen data. The local channel slope captured the effect of scale on debris flow susceptibility with debris flow probability approaching zero as the channel slope decreased with increasing drainage area. Aridity emerged as an important predictor of debris flow susceptibility, with increased likelihood of debris flows in drier parts of the landscape, thus reinforcing previous research in the region showing that post-fire surface runoff from wet Eucalypt forests is insufficient for initiating debris flows. Fire severity, measured as dNBR, was also a very important predictor. The inclusion of local channel slope as a predictor of debris flow susceptibility proved to be an effective approach for implicitly incorporating scale and relief as parameters. When combined with models of debris flow magnitude the results from this study can be used obtain continuous probability-magnitude relations of sediment flux from debris flows for drainage networks across entire burned areas.

LEGEND, a LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, Jer Chyi; Hall, Doyle T.

2013-01-01

LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model) is a three-dimensional orbital debris evolutionary model that is capable of simulating the historical and future debris populations in the near-Earth environment. The historical component in LEGEND adopts a deterministic approach to mimic the known historical populations. Launched rocket bodies, spacecraft, and mission-related debris (rings, bolts, etc.) are added to the simulated environment. Known historical breakup events are reproduced, and fragments down to 1 mm in size are created. The LEGEND future projection component adopts a Monte Carlo approach and uses an innovative pair-wise collision probability evaluation algorithm to simulate the future breakups and the growth of the debris populations. This algorithm is based on a new "random sampling in time" approach that preserves characteristics of the traditional approach and captures the rapidly changing nature of the orbital debris environment. LEGEND is a Fortran 90-based numerical simulation program. It operates in a UNIX/Linux environment.

The formation of Pluto's low-mass satellites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kenyon, Scott J.; Bromley, Benjamin C., E-mail: skenyon@cfa.harvard.edu, E-mail: bromley@physics.utah.edu

Motivated by the New Horizons mission, we consider how Pluto's small satellites—currently Styx, Nix, Kerberos, and Hydra—grow in debris from the giant impact that forms the Pluto-Charon binary. After the impact, Pluto and Charon accrete some of the debris and eject the rest from the binary orbit. During the ejection, high-velocity collisions among debris particles produce a collisional cascade, leading to the ejection of some debris from the system and enabling the remaining debris particles to find stable orbits around the binary. Our numerical simulations of coagulation and migration show that collisional evolution within a ring or a disk ofmore » debris leads to a few small satellites orbiting Pluto-Charon. These simulations are the first to demonstrate migration-induced mergers within a particle disk. The final satellite masses correlate with the initial disk mass. More massive disks tend to produce fewer satellites. For the current properties of the satellites, our results strongly favor initial debris masses of 3-10 × 10{sup 19} g and current satellite albedos A ≈ 0.4-1. We also predict an ensemble of smaller satellites, R ≲ 1-3 km, and very small particles, R ≈ 1-100 cm and optical depth τ ≲ 10{sup –10}. These objects should have semimajor axes outside the current orbit of Hydra.« less

A Study on the Characteristics of the Structure of Vega's Debris Disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, T.; Ji, J. H.

2013-03-01

Clumpy structure in the Vega's debris disk has been previously reported at millimeter wavelengths and attributed to the concentrations of dust grains trapped in resonances with a potential planet. However, current imaging at multi-wavelengths with higher sensitivity is against the former observed structure. The disk is now revealed to have a smooth structure. A planet orbiting Vega could not be neglected,but the present-day observations may place a severe constraint on the orbital parameters for the potential planet. Herein, we utilize modified MERCURY codes to numerically simulate Vega system, consisting of debris disk and a planet. In our simulations, the initial inner and outer boundaries of the debris disk are assumed to be 80~AU and 120~AU, respectively. The radius of dust grains distributes in the range from 10 μm to 100 μm, in nearly coplanar orbits. From the outcomes, we show that the evolution of debris disk is consistent with recent observations, if there is no planet orbiting Vega. However, if Vega owns a planet with a high eccentricity (e.g., e=0.6), the planetary semi-major axis cannot be larger than 60~AU, otherwise, the structure of debris disk will congregate due to the existence of the postulated planet. The 2:1 mean motion resonances may play a significant role in sculpting the debris disk.

Particle size reduction in debris flows: Laboratory experiments compared with field data from Inyo Creek, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arabnia, O.; Sklar, L. S.; Mclaughlin, M. K.

2014-12-01

Rock particles in debris flows are reduced in size through abrasion and fracture. Wear of coarse sediments results in production of finer particles, which alter the bulk material rheology and influence flow dynamics and runout distance. Particle wear also affects the size distribution of coarse particles, transforming the initial sediment size distribution produced on hillslopes into that delivered to the fluvial channel network. A better understanding of the controls on particle wear in debris flows would aid in the inferring flow conditions from debris flow deposits, in estimating the initial size of sediments entrained in the flow, and in modeling debris flow dynamics and mapping hazards. The rate of particle size reduction with distance traveled should depend on the intensity of particle interactions with other particles and the flow boundary, and on rock resistance to wear. We seek a geomorphic transport law to predict rate of particle wear with debris flow travel distance as a function of particle size distribution, flow depth, channel slope, fluid composition and rock strength. Here we use four rotating drums to create laboratory debris flows across a range of scales. Drum diameters range from 0.2 to 4.0 m, with the largest drum able to accommodate up to 2 Mg of material, including boulders. Each drum has vanes along the boundary to prevent sliding. Initial experiments use angular clasts of durable granodiorite; later experiments will use less resistant rock types. Shear rate is varied by changing drum rotational velocity. We begin experiments with well-sorted coarse particle size distributions, which are allowed to evolve through particle wear. The fluid is initially clear water, which rapidly acquires fine-grained wear products. After each travel increment all coarse particles (mass > 0.4 g) are weighed individually. We quantify particle wear rates using statistics of size and mass distributions, and by fitting various comminution functions to the data. Laboratory data are compared with longitudinal evolution of grain size and angularity of particles deposited by debris flows along Inyo Creek, Sierra Nevada, California. Preliminary results suggest wear rates can be scaled across drum sizes and to field conditions using non-dimensional metrics of flow dynamics including Savage, Bagnold, and Froude numbers.

Effects of YORP-induced rotational fission on the small size end of the Main Belt asteroid size distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, Alessandro; Jacobson, S.; Marzari, F.; Scheeres, D.; Davis, D. R.

2013-10-01

From the results of a comprehensive asteroid population evolution model, we conclude that the YORP-induced rotational fission hypothesis has strong repercussions for the small size end of the Main Belt asteroid size frequency distribution. These results are consistent with observed asteroid population statistics. The foundation of this model is the asteroid rotation model of Marzari et al. (2011), which incorporates both the YORP effect and collisional evolution. This work adds to that model the rotational fission hypothesis (i.e. when the rotation rate exceeds a critical value, erosion and binary formation occur). The YORP effect timescale for large asteroids with diameters D > ~6 km is longer than the collision timescale in the Main Belt, thus the frequency of large asteroids is determined by a collisional equilibrium (e.g. Bottke 2005), but for small asteroids with diameters D < ~6 km, the asteroid population evolution model confirms that YORP-induced rotational fission destroys small asteroids more frequently than collisions. Therefore, the frequency of these small asteroids is determined by an equilibrium between the creation of new asteroids out of the impact debris of larger asteroids and the destruction of these asteroids by YORP-induced rotational fission. By introducing a new source of destruction that varies strongly with size, YORP-induced rotational fission alters the slope of the size frequency distribution. Using the outputs of the asteroid population evolution model and a 1-D collision evolution model, we can generate this new size frequency distribution and it matches the change in slope observed by the SKADS survey (Gladman 2009). This agreement is achieved with both an accretional power-law or a truncated “Asteroids were Born Big” size frequency distribution (Weidenschilling 2010, Morbidelli 2009).

Determination of debris albedo from visible and infrared brightnesses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambert, John V.; Osteen, Thomas J.; Kraszewski, Butch

1993-09-01

The Air Force Phillips Laboratory is conducting measurements to characterize the orbital debris environment using wide-field optical systems located at the Air Force's Maui, Hawaii, Space Surveillance Site. Conversion of the observed visible brightnesses of detected debris objects to physical sizes require knowledge of the albedo (reflectivity). A thermal model for small debris objects has been developed and is used to calculate albedos from simultaneous visible and thermal infrared observations of catalogued debris objects. The model and initial results will be discussed.

Cooling of core debris and the impact on containment pressure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, J.W.

1981-07-01

An evaluation of the core debris/water interactions associated with a postulated meltdown of a PWR and its impact on the containment pressure is presented. In the event of a complete core meltdown in a PWR, the interaction of molten debris with water in the bottom head of the reactor vessel could result in complete evaporation of water and breach of the vessel wall. In the reactor cavity, the debris-water interaction may lead to a rapid generation of steam, which could lead to pressures beyond the containment building limit. Previous analysis of the debris-water interactions with the MARCH code was basedmore » on the single-sphere model, in which the internal and surface heat transfer are the controlling mechanisms. In this study, the potential in-vessel and ex-vessel debris-water interactions are analyzed in terms of porous debris bed models. The debris cooling and steam generation are controlled by the hydrodynamics of the two-phase flow. The porous models developed by Dhir-Catton and by Lipinski were examined and used to test their impact on containment dynamics. The tests include several particle sizes from 1 mm to 50 mm. Detailed transient data on the pressure, temperature, and mass of steam in the containment building was obtained for all cases. Bands of pressure variation which represents the possible pressure rise under accident conditions were obtained for the Dhir-Catton model and for the Lipinski model. The results show that, for the case of a wet cavity, the magnitude of the predicted pressure rises is not strongly affected by the different models. The occurrence of the peak pressure, however, is considerably delayed by using the debris bed model. For the case of a dry cavity, a large reduction of the peak pressure is obtained by using the debris bed model.« less

The world state of orbital debris measurements and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Nicholas L.

2004-02-01

For more than 20 years orbital debris research around the world has been striving to obtain a sharper, more comprehensive picture of the near-Earth artificial satellite environment. Whereas significant progress has been achieved through better organized and funded programs and with the assistance of advancing technologies in both space surveillance sensors and computational capabilities, the potential of measurements and modeling of orbital debris has yet to be realized. Greater emphasis on a systems-level approach to the characterization and projection of the orbital debris environment would prove beneficial. On-going space surveillance activities, primarily from terrestrial-based facilities, are narrowing the uncertainties of the orbital debris population for objects greater than 2 mm in LEO and offer a better understanding of the GEO regime down to 10 cm diameter objects. In situ data collected in LEO is limited to a narrow range of altitudes and should be employed with great care. Orbital debris modeling efforts should place high priority on improving model fidelity, on clearly and completely delineating assumptions and simplifications, and on more thorough sensitivity studies. Most importantly, however, greater communications and cooperation between the measurements and modeling communities are essential for the efficient advancement of the field. The advent of the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) in 1993 has facilitated this exchange of data and modeling techniques. A joint goal of these communities should be the identification of new sources of orbital debris.

Estimated probabilities, volumes, and inundation areas depths of potential postwildfire debris flows from Carbonate, Slate, Raspberry, and Milton Creeks, near Marble, Gunnison County, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stevens, Michael R.; Flynn, Jennifer L.; Stephens, Verlin C.; Verdin, Kristine L.

2011-01-01

During 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Gunnison County, initiated a study to estimate the potential for postwildfire debris flows to occur in the drainage basins occupied by Carbonate, Slate, Raspberry, and Milton Creeks near Marble, Colorado. Currently (2010), these drainage basins are unburned but could be burned by a future wildfire. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain western United States were used to estimate the probability of postwildfire debris-flow occurrence and debris-flow volumes for drainage basins occupied by Carbonate, Slate, Raspberry, and Milton Creeks near Marble. Data for the postwildfire debris-flow models included drainage basin area; area burned and burn severity; percentage of burned area; soil properties; rainfall total and intensity for the 5- and 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration-rainfall; and topographic and soil property characteristics of the drainage basins occupied by the four creeks. A quasi-two-dimensional floodplain computer model (FLO-2D) was used to estimate the spatial distribution and the maximum instantaneous depth of the postwildfire debris-flow material during debris flow on the existing debris-flow fans that issue from the outlets of the four major drainage basins. The postwildfire debris-flow probabilities at the outlet of each drainage basin range from 1 to 19 percent for the 5-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, and from 3 to 35 percent for 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall. The largest probabilities for postwildfire debris flow are estimated for Raspberry Creek (19 and 35 percent), whereas estimated debris-flow probabilities for the three other creeks range from 1 to 6 percent. The estimated postwildfire debris-flow volumes at the outlet of each creek range from 7,500 to 101,000 cubic meters for the 5-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, and from 9,400 to 126,000 cubic meters for the 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall. The largest postwildfire debris-flow volumes were estimated for Carbonate Creek and Milton Creek drainage basins, for both the 5- and 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfalls. Results from FLO-2D modeling of the 5-year and 25-year recurrence, 1-hour rainfalls indicate that the debris flows from the four drainage basins would reach or nearly reach the Crystal River. The model estimates maximum instantaneous depths of debris-flow material during postwildfire debris flows that exceeded 5 meters in some areas, but the differences in model results between the 5-year and 25-year recurrence, 1-hour rainfalls are small. Existing stream channels or topographic flow paths likely control the distribution of debris-flow material, and the difference in estimated debris-flow volume (about 25 percent more volume for the 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall compared to the 5-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall) does not seem to substantially affect the estimated spatial distribution of debris-flow material. Historically, the Marble area has experienced periodic debris flows in the absence of wildfire. This report estimates the probability and volume of debris flow and maximum instantaneous inundation area depths after hypothetical wildfire and rainfall. This postwildfire debris-flow report does not address the current (2010) prewildfire debris-flow hazards that exist near Marble.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pudasaini, Shiva P.; Miller, Stephen A.

The general two-phase debris flow model proposed by Pudasaini is employed to study subaerial and submarine debris flows, and the tsunami generated by the debris impact at lakes and oceans. The model, which includes three fundamentally new and dominant physical aspects such as enhanced viscous stress, virtual mass, and generalized drag (in addition to buoyancy), constitutes the most generalized two-phase flow model to date. The advantage of this two-phase debris flow model over classical single-phase, or quasi-two-phase models, is that the initial mass can be divided into several parts by appropriately considering the solid volume fraction. These parts include amore » dry (landslide or rock slide), a fluid (water or muddy water; e.g., dams, rivers), and a general debris mixture material as needed in real flow simulations. This innovative formulation provides an opportunity, within a single framework, to simultaneously simulate the sliding debris (or landslide), the water lake or ocean, the debris impact at the lake or ocean, the tsunami generation and propagation, the mixing and separation between the solid and fluid phases, and the sediment transport and deposition process in the bathymetric surface. Applications of this model include (a) sediment transport on hill slopes, river streams, hydraulic channels (e.g., hydropower dams and plants); lakes, fjords, coastal lines, and aquatic ecology; and (b) submarine debris impact and the rupture of fiber optic, submarine cables and pipelines along the ocean floor, and damage to offshore drilling platforms. Numerical simulations reveal that the dynamics of debris impact induced tsunamis in mountain lakes or oceans are fundamentally different than the tsunami generated by pure rock avalanches and landslides. The analysis includes the generation, amplification and propagation of super tsunami waves and run-ups along coastlines, debris slide and deposition at the bottom floor, and debris shock waves. It is observed that the submarine debris speed can be faster than the tsunami speed. This information can be useful for early warning strategies in the coastal regions. These findings substantially increase our understanding of complex multi-phase systems and multi-physics and flows, and allows for the proper modeling of landslide and debris induced tsunami, the dynamics of turbidity currents and sediment transport, and the associated applications to hazard mitigation, geomorphology and sedimentology.« less

Coupling of rainfall-induced landslide triggering model with predictions of debris flow runout distances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehmann, Peter; von Ruette, Jonas; Fan, Linfeng; Or, Dani

2014-05-01

Rapid debris flows initiated by rainfall induced shallow landslides present a highly destructive natural hazard in steep terrain. The impact and run-out paths of debris flows depend on the volume, composition and initiation zone of released material and are requirements to make accurate debris flow predictions and hazard maps. For that purpose we couple the mechanistic 'Catchment-scale Hydro-mechanical Landslide Triggering (CHLT)' model to compute timing, location, and landslide volume with simple approaches to estimate debris flow runout distances. The runout models were tested using two landslide inventories obtained in the Swiss Alps following prolonged rainfall events. The predicted runout distances were in good agreement with observations, confirming the utility of such simple models for landscape scale estimates. In a next step debris flow paths were computed for landslides predicted with the CHLT model for a certain range of soil properties to explore its effect on runout distances. This combined approach offers a more complete spatial picture of shallow landslide and subsequent debris flow hazards. The additional information provided by CHLT model concerning location, shape, soil type and water content of the released mass may also be incorporated into more advanced models of runout to improve predictability and impact of such abruptly-released mass.

The Evolution of a Planet-Forming Disk Artist Concept Animation

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-12-09

This frame from an animation shows the evolution of a planet-forming disk around a star. Initially, the young disk is bright and thick with dust, providing raw materials for building planets. In the first 10 million years or so, gaps appear within the disk as newborn planets coalesce out of the dust, clearing out a path. In time, this planetary "debris disk" thins out as gravitational interactions with numerous planets slowly sweep away the dust. Steady pressure from the starlight and solar winds also blows out the dust. After a few billion years, only a thin ring remains in the outermost reaches of the system, a faint echo of the once-brilliant disk. Our own solar system has a similar debris disk -- a ring of comets called the Kuiper Belt. Leftover dust in the inner portion of the solar system is known as "zodiacal dust." Bright, young disks can be imaged directly by visible-light telescopes, such as NASA's Hubble Space Telescope. Older, fainter debris disks can be detected only by infrared telescopes like NASA's Spitzer Space Telescope, which sense the disks' dim heat. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA07099

SN 1987A: A Unique Laboratory for Shock Physics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sonneborn, George

2012-01-01

Supernova 1987 A is the brightest and nearest supernova observed since Kepler's SN1604, and is the only one close enough to resolve and directly observe the temporal growth of the ejecta. Over the past 25 years, intensive observations across the electromagnetic spectrum with observatories on the ground (Australia Telescope Compact Array, Gemini-S, Magellan, VLT) and in space (IUE, KAO, CGRO, Hubble, Chandra, Spitzer, Herschel) have given us an unprecedented view of the evolution of the debris of the supernova and of its shock interaction with circumstellar matter. The outer supernova debris, now expanding with velocities -8000 km/s, encountered the relatively dense circumstellar ring formed by presupernova mass loss starting in 1994. The resulting shock interaction has been manifested by: rapidly brightening UV-optical "hotspots", an expanding X-ray ring. an expanding ring of knotty non-thermal radio emission, and a ring of thermal IR emission from silicate dust. The recent evolution of these emissions reveal new details about the shock interaction, circumstellar material, and the star that exploded. Certain critical problems about SN 1987 A, such as the still undiscovered compact object formed in the explosion and the structure of the central debris, require the capabilities of JWST.

Model simulations of flood and debris flow timing in steep catchments after wildfire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rengers, F. K.; McGuire, L. A.; Kean, J. W.; Staley, D. M.; Hobley, D. E. J.

2016-08-01

Debris flows are a typical hazard on steep slopes after wildfire, but unlike debris flows that mobilize from landslides, most postwildfire debris flows are generated from water runoff. The majority of existing debris flow modeling has focused on landslide-triggered debris flows. In this study we explore the potential for using process-based rainfall-runoff models to simulate the timing of water flow and runoff-generated debris flows in recently burned areas. Two different spatially distributed hydrologic models with differing levels of complexity were used: the full shallow water equations and the kinematic wave approximation. Model parameter values were calibrated in two different watersheds, spanning two orders of magnitude in drainage area. These watersheds were affected by the 2009 Station Fire in the San Gabriel Mountains, CA, USA. Input data for the numerical models were constrained by time series of soil moisture, flow stage, and rainfall collected at field sites, as well as high-resolution lidar-derived digital elevation models. The calibrated parameters were used to model a third watershed in the burn area, and the results show a good match with observed timing of flow peaks. The calibrated roughness parameter (Manning's n) was generally higher when using the kinematic wave approximation relative to the shallow water equations, and decreased with increasing spatial scale. The calibrated effective watershed hydraulic conductivity was low for both models, even for storms occurring several months after the fire, suggesting that wildfire-induced changes to soil-water infiltration were retained throughout that time. Overall, the two model simulations were quite similar suggesting that a kinematic wave model, which is simpler and more computationally efficient, is a suitable approach for predicting flood and debris flow timing in steep, burned watersheds.

Model simulations of flood and debris flow timing in steep catchments after wildfire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rengers, Francis K.; McGuire, Luke; Kean, Jason W.; Staley, Dennis M.; Hobley, D.E.J

2016-01-01

Debris flows are a typical hazard on steep slopes after wildfire, but unlike debris flows that mobilize from landslides, most post-wildfire debris flows are generated from water runoff. The majority of existing debris-flow modeling has focused on landslide-triggered debris flows. In this study we explore the potential for using process-based rainfall-runoff models to simulate the timing of water flow and runoff-generated debris flows in recently burned areas. Two different spatially distributed hydrologic models with differing levels of complexity were used: the full shallow water equations and the kinematic wave approximation. Model parameter values were calibrated in two different watersheds, spanning two orders of magnitude in drainage area. These watersheds were affected by the 2009 Station Fire in the San Gabriel Mountains, CA, USA. Input data for the numerical models were constrained by time series of soil moisture, flow stage, and rainfall collected at field sites, as well as high-resolution lidar-derived digital elevation models. The calibrated parameters were used to model a third watershed in the burn area, and the results show a good match with observed timing of flow peaks. The calibrated roughness parameter (Manning's $n$) was generally higher when using the kinematic wave approximation relative to the shallow water equations, and decreased with increasing spatial scale. The calibrated effective watershed hydraulic conductivity was low for both models, even for storms occurring several months after the fire, suggesting that wildfire-induced changes to soil-water infiltration were retained throughout that time. Overall the two model simulations were quite similar suggesting that a kinematic wave model, which is simpler and more computationally efficient, is a suitable approach for predicting flood and debris flow timing in steep, burned watersheds.

Hydraulic modeling of unsteady debris-flow surges with solid-fluid interactions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iverson, Richard M.

1997-01-01

Interactions of solid and fluid constituents produce the unique style of motion that typifies debris flows. To simulate this motion, a new hydraulic model represents debris flows as deforming masses of granular solids variably liquefied by viscous pore fluid. The momentum equation of the model describes how internal and boundary forces change as coarse-grained surge heads dominated by grain-contact friction grade into muddy debris-flow bodies more strongly influenced by fluid viscosity and pressure. Scaling analysis reveals that pore-pressure variations can cause flow resistance in surge heads to surpass that in debris-flow bodies by orders of magnitude. Numerical solutions of the coupled momentum and continuity equations provide good predictions of unsteady, nonuniform motion of experimental debris flows from initiation through deposition.

Coronagraphic Imaging of Debris Disks from a High Altitude Balloon Platform

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Unwin, Stephen; Traub, Wesley; Bryden, Geoffrey; Brugarolas, Paul; Chen, Pin; Guyon, Olivier; Hillenbrand, Lynne; Kasdin, Jeremy; Krist, John; Macintosh, Bruce;

Coronagraphic Imaging of Debris Disks from a High Altitude Balloon Platform

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Unwin, Stephen; Traub, Wesley; Bryden, Geoffrey; Brugarolas, Paul; Chen, Pin; Guyon, Olivier; Hillenbrand, Lynne; Krist, John; Macintosh, Bruce; Mawet, Dimitri;

ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krisko, P. H.; Flegel, S.

2014-01-01

The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA's ORDEM 3.0 and ESA's MASTER-2009, have been publically released. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in low Earth orbit (LEO) to geosynchronous orbit (GEO). The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs, particularly in LEO. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris and can have enough momentum to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. In this paper, we present and detail the 1 mm to 1 cm orbital debris populations from both ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009 in LEO. We review population categories: particle sources for MASTER-2009, particle densities for ORDEM 3.0. We describe data sources and their uses, and supporting models. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are also presented and discussed within the context of each model.

Summary of the AIAA/NASA/DOD Orbital Debris Conference - Technical issues and future directions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, A.; Kessler, D.; Nieder, R.; Reynolds, R.

1990-01-01

An international conference on orbital debris was held on April 16-19, 1990, in Baltimore, Maryland. Topics of the conference included the implications of orbital debris for space flight, orbital debris measurements, modeling of the orbital debris environment, and methods to reduce the growth of the orbital debris population. Significant results from this meeting are summarized.

Measurement of Satellite Impact Test Fragments for Modeling Orbital Debris

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, Nicole M.

2009-01-01

There are over 13,000 pieces of catalogued objects 10cm and larger in orbit around Earth [ODQN, January 2009, p12]. More than 6000 of these objects are fragments from explosions and collisions. As the earth-orbiting object count increases, debris-generating collisions in the future become a statistical inevitability. To aid in understanding this collision risk, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has developed computer models that calculate quantity and orbits of debris both currently in orbit and in future epochs. In order to create a reasonable computer model of the orbital debris environment, it is important to understand the mechanics of creation of debris as a result of a collision. The measurement of the physical characteristics of debris resulting from ground-based, hypervelocity impact testing aids in understanding the sizes and shapes of debris produced from potential impacts in orbit. To advance the accuracy of fragment shape/size determination, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office recently implemented a computerized measurement system. The goal of this system is to improve knowledge and understanding of the relation between commonly used dimensions and overall shape. The technique developed involves scanning a single fragment with a hand-held laser device, measuring its size properties using a sophisticated software tool, and creating a three-dimensional computer model to demonstrate how the object might appear in orbit. This information is used to aid optical techniques in shape determination. This more automated and repeatable method provides higher accuracy in the size and shape determination of debris.

Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Y.-L.; Hyde, J. L.; Prior, T.; Matney, Mark

2010-01-01

The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 m and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 m.

Simulation of Micron-Sized Debris Populations in Low Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Y.-L.; Matney, M.; Liou, J.-C.; Hyde, J. L.; Prior, T. G.

2010-01-01

The update of ORDEM2000, the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, to its new version . ORDEM2010, is nearly complete. As a part of the ORDEM upgrade, this paper addresses the simulation of micro-debris (greater than 10 micron and smaller than 1 mm in size) populations in low Earth orbit. The principal data used in the modeling of the micron-sized debris populations are in-situ hypervelocity impact records, accumulated in post-flight damage surveys on the space-exposed surfaces of returned spacecrafts. The development of the micro-debris model populations follows the general approach to deriving other ORDEM2010-required input populations for various components and types of debris. This paper describes the key elements and major steps in the statistical inference of the ORDEM2010 micro-debris populations. A crucial step is the construction of a degradation/ejecta source model to provide prior information on the micron-sized objects (such as orbital and object-size distributions). Another critical step is to link model populations with data, which is rather involved. It demands detailed information on area-time/directionality for all the space-exposed elements of a shuttle orbiter and damage laws, which relate impact damage with the physical properties of a projectile and impact conditions such as impact angle and velocity. Also needed are model-predicted debris fluxes as a function of object size and impact velocity from all possible directions. In spite of the very limited quantity of the available shuttle impact data, the population-derivation process is satisfactorily stable. Final modeling results obtained from shuttle window and radiator impact data are reasonably convergent and consistent, especially for the debris populations with object-size thresholds at 10 and 100 micron.

Empirical model for the volume-change behavior of debris flows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, S.H.; ,

1993-01-01

The potential travel down hillsides; movement stops where the volume-change behavior of flows as they travel down hillsides ; movement stops where the volume of actively flowing debris becomes negligible. The average change in volume over distance for 26 recent debris flows in the Honolulu area was assumed to be a function of the slope over which the debris flow traveled, the degree of flow confinement by the channel, and an assigned value for the type of vegetation through which the debris flow traveled. Analysis of the data yielded a relation that can be incorporated into digital elevation models to characterize debris-flow travel on Oahu.

Reading the Signatures of Extrasolar Planets in Debris Disks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kuchner, Marc J.

2009-01-01

An extrasolar planet sculpts the famous debris dish around Fomalhaut; probably ma ny other debris disks contain planets that we could locate if only we could better recognize their signatures in the dust that surrounds them. But the interaction between planets and debris disks involves both orbital resonances and collisions among grains and rocks in the disks --- difficult processes to model simultanemus]y. I will describe new 3-D models of debris disk dynamics that incorporate both collisions and resonant trapping of dust for the first time, allowing us to decode debris disk images and read the signatures of the planets they contain.

Apical extrusion of debris: a literature review of an inherent occurrence during root canal treatment.

PubMed

Tanalp, J; Güngör, T

2014-03-01

Extrusion of intracanal debris as well as irrigants is a common occurrence during root canal treatment, and no instrument or technique has thoroughly solved this problem. Because flare-ups may arise with any irritation directed towards periapical tissues, a shaping or irrigation technique should minimize the risk of apical extrusion, even though it may not be prevented. There has been a rapid evolution of root canal instruments and irrigation systems through the last decade, and many have been assessed for their debris extrusion potential. The purpose of this review was to identify publications regarding the evaluation of debris, bacteria and irrigant extrusion during root canal treatment. A PubMed, Ovid and MEDLINE search was conducted using the keywords "apical extrusion", "debris extrusion" and "endodontic treatment". The literature search extended over a period of more than 30 years up to 2012. Content of the review was limited to apical extrusion of debris and irrigants, extrusion of liquid by irrigation methods and bacterial extrusion. Issues relevant to apical extrusion were obtained by further search in the reference sections of the retrieved articles. The review provides an update on the current status of apical extrusion. © 2013 International Endodontic Journal. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krisko, P. H.

2014-01-01

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has released its latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM 3.0. It supersedes ORDEM 2.0. This newer model encompasses the Earth satellite and debris flux environment from altitudes of low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Debris sizes of 10 microns through 1 m in non-GEO and 10 cm through 1 m in GEO are modeled. The inclusive years are 2010 through 2035. The ORDEM model series has always been data driven. ORDEM 3.0 has the benefit of many more hours from existing data sources and from new sources that weren't available to past versions. Returned surfaces, ground tests, and remote sensors all contribute data. The returned surface and ground test data reveal material characteristics of small particles. Densities of fragmentation debris particles smaller than 10 cm are grouped in ORDEM 3.0 in terms of high-, medium-, and lowdensities, along with RORSAT sodium-potassium droplets. Supporting models have advanced significantly. The LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND) includes an historical and a future projection component with yearly populations that include launched and maneuvered intacts, mission related debris (MRD), and explosion and collision fragments. LEGEND propagates objects with ephemerides and physical characteristics down to 1 mm in size. The full LEGEND yearly population acts as an a priori condition for a Bayesian statistical model. Specific, well defined populations are added like the Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite (RORSAT) sodium-potassium (NaK) droplets, recent major accidental and deliberate collision fragments, and known anomalous debris event fragments. For microdebris of sizes 10 microns to 1 mm the ODPO uses an in-house Degradation/Ejecta model in which a MLE technique is used with returned surface data to estimate populations. This paper elaborates on the upgrades of this model over previous versions highlighting the material density splits and consequences of that to the penetration risk to spacecraft.

Numerical modelling study of gully recharge and debris flows in Haida Gwaii, British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Yvonne; Johnson, Edward; Chaikina, Olga

2015-04-01

In high mountains, debris flows are a major process responsible for transferring sediment to more downstream fluvial reaches. This sediment transfer begins on mountain hillslopes where various mass wasting processes move sediment from hillslopes to uppermost reaches of the channel system (these reaches are herein referred to as gullies and only experience water flow during high intensity precipitation events). Sediment recharge into gullies, which has received minimal attention in the scientific literature, refers to the transfer of sediment and other debris from surrounding hillslopes into gullies (Jakob and Oden, 2005). Debris flow occurrence and debris flow volumes depend on some precipitation threshold as well as volumes of material contained in the particular gully. For example, if one debris flow has removed all of the accumulated material from the gully, then any subsequent debris flow will be smaller if enough time has not yet passed for notable sediment recharge. Herein, we utilize the numerical model of landscape development, LandMod (Martin, 1998; Dadson and Church, 2005; Martin, 2007), to explore connections between hillslope processes, gully recharge rates, and transfer of sediment to downstream channel reaches in the Haida Gwaii, British Columbia. Hillslope processes in the model include shallow landsliding, bedrock failures and weathering. The updated debris flow algorithm is based on extensive field data available for debris flows in Haida Gwaii (e.g., Rood, 1984; Oden, 1994; Jakob and Oden, 2005), as well as theoretical considerations based on debris flow studies. The most significant model extension is the calculation of gully recharge rates; for each gully, the total accumulated sediment in gullies at each time step is determined using a power-law relation for area-normalized recharge rate versus elapsed time since the last debris flow. Thus, when the stochastic driver for debris flow occurrence triggers an event, the amount of stored material is known and can be transferred and deposited along the channel system. Results show that the size distribution of debris flows and sediment transfers from gullies to downstream reaches are modified by the inclusion of a module that accounts for sediment recharge when compared to model runs that do not consider gully recharge.

Modeling of the Orbital Debris Environment Risks in the Past, Present, and Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matney, Mark

2016-01-01

Despite of the tireless work by space surveillance assets, much of the Earth debris environment is not easily measured or tracked. For every object that is in an orbit we can track, there are hundreds of small debris that are too small to be tracked but still large enough to damage spacecraft. In addition, even if we knew today's environment with perfect knowledge, the debris environment is dynamic and would change tomorrow. Therefore, orbital debris scientists rely on numerical modeling to understand the nature of the debris environment and its risk to space operations throughout Earth orbit and into the future. This talk will summarize the ways in which modeling complements measurements to help give us a better picture of what is occurring in Earth orbit, and helps us to better conduct current and future space operations.

The debris-flow rheology myth

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iverson, R.M.; ,

2003-01-01

Models that employ a fixed rheology cannot yield accurate interpretations or predictions of debris-flow motion, because the evolving behavior of debris flows is too complex to be represented by any rheological equation that uniquely relates stress and strain rate. Field observations and experimental data indicate that debris behavior can vary from nearly rigid to highly fluid as a consequence of temporal and spatial variations in pore-fluid pressure and mixture agitation. Moreover, behavior can vary if debris composition changes as a result of grain-size segregation and gain or loss of solid and fluid constituents in transit. An alternative to fixed-rheology models is provided by a Coulomb mixture theory model, which can represent variable interactions of solid and fluid constituents in heterogeneous debris-flow surges with high-friction, coarse-grained heads and low-friction, liquefied tails. ?? 2003 Millpress.

Deposition of steeply infalling debris around white dwarf stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, John C.; Veras, Dimitri; Gänsicke, Boris T.

2017-06-01

High-metallicity pollution is common in white dwarf (WD) stars hosting remnant planetary systems. However, they rarely have detectable debris accretion discs, possibly because much of the influx is fast steeply infalling debris in star-grazing orbits, producing a more tenuous signature than a slowly accreting disc. Processes governing such deposition between the Roche radius and photosphere have so far received little attention and we model them here analytically by extending recent work on sun-grazing comets to WD systems. We find that the evolution of cm-to-km size (a0) infallers most strongly depends on two combinations of parameters, which effectively measure sublimation rate and binding strength. We then provide an algorithm to determine the fate of infallers for any WD, and apply the algorithm to four limiting combinations of hot versus cool (young/old) WDs with snowy (weak, volatile) versus rocky (strong, refractory) infallers. We find: (I) Total sublimation above the photosphere befalls all small infallers across the entire WD temperature (TWD) range, the threshold size rising with TWD and 100× larger for rock than snow. (II) All very large objects fragment tidally regardless of TWD: for rock, a0 ≽ 105 cm; for snow, a0 ≽ 103-3 × 104 cm across all WD cooling ages. (III) A considerable range of a0 avoids fragmentation and total sublimation, yielding impacts or grazes with cold WDs. This range rapidly narrows with increasing TWD, especially for snowy bodies. Finally, we briefly discuss how the various forms of deposited debris may finally reach the photosphere surface itself.

DebriSat - A Planned Laboratory-Based Satellite Impact Experiment for Breakup Fragment Characterization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, J.-C.; Fitz-Coy, N.; Werremeyer, M.; Huynh, T.; Voelker, M.; Opiela, J.

2012-01-01

DebriSat is a planned laboratory ]based satellite hypervelocity impact experiment. The goal of the project is to characterize the orbital debris that would be generated by a hypervelocity collision involving a modern satellite in low Earth orbit (LEO). The DebriSat project will update and expand upon the information obtained in the 1992 Satellite Orbital Debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT), which characterized the breakup of a 1960 's US Navy Transit satellite. There are three phases to this project: the design and fabrication of an engineering model representing a modern, 50-cm/50-kg class LEO satellite known as DebriSat; conduction of a laboratory-based hypervelocity impact to catastrophically break up the satellite; and characterization of the properties of breakup fragments down to 2 mm in size. The data obtained, including fragment size, area ]to ]mass ratio, density, shape, material composition, optical properties, and radar cross ]section distributions, will be used to supplement the DoD fs and NASA fs satellite breakup models to better describe the breakup outcome of a modern satellite. Updated breakup models will improve mission planning, environmental models, and event response. The DebriSat project is sponsored by the Air Force fs Space and Missile Systems Center and the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office. The design and fabrication of DebriSat is led by University of Florida with subject matter experts f support from The Aerospace Corporation. The major milestones of the project include the complete fabrication of DebriSat by September 2013, the hypervelocity impact of DebriSat at the Air Force fs Arnold Engineering Development Complex in early 2014, and fragment characterization and data analyses in late 2014.

Creating Compositionally-Driven Debris Disk Dust Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimmerman, Mara; Jang-Condell, Hannah; Schneider, Glenn; Chen, Christine; Stark, Chris

2018-06-01

Debris disks play a key role in exoplanet research; planetary formation and composition can be inferred from the nature of the circumstellar disk. In order to characterize the properties of the circumstellar dust, we create models of debris disks in order to find the composition. We apply Mie theory to calculate the dust absorption and emission within debris disks. We have data on nine targets from Spitzer and Hubble Space Telescope. The Spitzer data includes mid-IR spectroscopy and photometry. We have spatially-resolved optical and near-IR images of the disks from HST. Our goal is to compare this data to the model. By using a model that fits for photometric and mid-IR datasimultaneously, we gain a deeper understanding of the structure and composition of the debris disk systems.

Parameterization of a numerical 2-D debris flow model with entrainment: a case study of the Faucon catchment, Southern French Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussin, H. Y.; Luna, B. Quan; van Westen, C. J.; Christen, M.; Malet, J.-P.; van Asch, Th. W. J.

2012-10-01

The occurrence of debris flows has been recorded for more than a century in the European Alps, accounting for the risk to settlements and other human infrastructure that have led to death, building damage and traffic disruptions. One of the difficulties in the quantitative hazard assessment of debris flows is estimating the run-out behavior, which includes the run-out distance and the related hazard intensities like the height and velocity of a debris flow. In addition, as observed in the French Alps, the process of entrainment of material during the run-out can be 10-50 times in volume with respect to the initially mobilized mass triggered at the source area. The entrainment process is evidently an important factor that can further determine the magnitude and intensity of debris flows. Research on numerical modeling of debris flow entrainment is still ongoing and involves some difficulties. This is partly due to our lack of knowledge of the actual process of the uptake and incorporation of material and due the effect of entrainment on the final behavior of a debris flow. Therefore, it is important to model the effects of this key erosional process on the formation of run-outs and related intensities. In this study we analyzed a debris flow with high entrainment rates that occurred in 2003 at the Faucon catchment in the Barcelonnette Basin (Southern French Alps). The historic event was back-analyzed using the Voellmy rheology and an entrainment model imbedded in the RAMMS 2-D numerical modeling software. A sensitivity analysis of the rheological and entrainment parameters was carried out and the effects of modeling with entrainment on the debris flow run-out, height and velocity were assessed.

Using the Data From Accidents and Natural Disasters to Improve Marine Debris Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maximenko, N. A.; Hafner, J.; MacFadyen, A.; Kamachi, M.; Murray, C. C.

2016-02-01

In the absence of satisfactory marine debris observing system, drift models provide a unique tool that can be used to identify main pathways and accumulation areas of the natural and anthropogenic debris, including the plastic pollution having increasing impact on the environment and raising concern of the society. Main problems, limiting the utility of model simulations, include the lack of accurate information on distribution, timing, strength and composition of sources of marine debris and the complexity of the hydrodynamics of an object, floating on the surface of a rough sea. To calculate the drift, commonly, models estimate surface currents first and then add the object motion relative to the water. Importantly, ocean surface velocity can't be measured with the existing instruments. For various applications it is derived from subsurface (such as 15-meter drifter trajectories) and satellite (altimetry, scatterometry) data using simple theories (geostrophy, Ekman spiral, etc.). Similarly, even the best ocean general circulation models (OGCM's), utilizing different parameterizations of the mixed layer, significantly disagree on the ocean surface velocities. Understanding debris motion under the direct wind force and in interaction with the breaking wind waves seems to be a task of even greater complexity. In this presentation, we demonstrate how the data of documented natural disasters (such as tsunamis, hurricanes and floods) and other accidents generating marine debris with known times and coordinates of start and/or end points of the trajectories, can be used to calibrate drift models and obtain meaningful quantitative results that can be generalized for other sources of debris and used to plan the future marine debris observing system. On these examples we also demonstrate how the oceanic and atmospheric circulations couple together to determine the pathways and destination areas of different types of the floating marine debris.

Processes driving rapid morphological changes observed on the Khumbu Glacier, Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quincey, Duncan; Rowan, Ann; Gibson, Morgan; Irvine-Fynn, Tristram; King, Owen; Watson, Scott

2016-04-01

The response of many Himalayan glaciers to climatic change is complicated by the presence of a supraglacial debris cover, which leads to a suite of processes controlling mass loss that are not commonly found where glaciers are debris-free. Here, we present a range of field, surface topographic and ice-dynamical observations acquired from Khumbu Glacier in Nepal, to describe and quantify these processes in fine spatial and temporal resolution. Like many other debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya, the debris-covered tongue of the Khumbu Glacier is heavily in recession. For at least two decades, the lower ablation area has been stagnant as surface lowering in the mid-ablation zone has led to ever decreasing driving stresses. Contemporary velocity data derived from TerraSAR-X imagery confirms that the active-inactive ice boundary can now be found 5 km from the glacier terminus and that the maximum velocity, immediately below the icefall, is around 70 m per year. These data show that in this upper part of the ablation zone, the glacier velocity has not changed during the last 20 years, suggesting that at least above the icefall the glacier remains healthy. Across the stagnant debris-covered tongue there have been marked surface morphological changes. Mapping from 2004 shows relatively few surface ponds, a homogeneous debris-covered surface, and a small area towards the terminus supporting soil formation and low vegetation. Mapping from field observations in 2014 shows an abundance of surface meltwater, a more heterogeneous surface texture associated with many exposed ice cliffs, and a long (3 km) zone of stable terrain where soils are developing and, in places, low scrub can be found. Most dramatically, a string of surface ponds occupying the true-left lowermost 2 km of ice have expanded and coalesced, suggesting the glacier has crossed a threshold leading towards large glacial lake development. Two fine-resolution DEMs derived from Structure-from-Motion in spring 2014 and autumn 2015 elucidate the processes driving mass loss across the debris-covered area. Recession is greatest around surface meltwater ponds and in the upper part of the ablation area where debris cover is thinnest. Comparison with an historic DEM from 1984 shows the evolution of the glacier surface topography, which has become increasingly irregular because of the development of surface ponds and associated ice cliffs. These observations suggest a continuous cycle of relief inversion drives surface lowering across large areas of the debris-covered surface, and we propose a conceptual model to illustrate this cycle that is applicable to all receding debris-covered glaciers in the region.

Orbital Debris: A Chronology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Portree, Davis S. F. (Editor); Loftus, Joseph P., Jr. (Editor)

1999-01-01

This chronology covers the 37-year history of orbital debris concerns. It tracks orbital debris hazard creation, research, observation, experimentation, management, mitigation, protection, and policy. Included are debris-producing, events; U.N. orbital debris treaties, Space Shuttle and space station orbital debris issues; ASAT tests; milestones in theory and modeling; uncontrolled reentries; detection system development; shielding development; geosynchronous debris issues, including reboost policies: returned surfaces studies, seminar papers reports, conferences, and studies; the increasing effect of space activities on astronomy; and growing international awareness of the near-Earth environment.

Thermal models applicable for visual and infrared studies of orbital debris

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lebofsky, Larry A.; Vilas, Faith

1990-01-01

Over the past decade, thermal models have been developed for the determination of asteroid diameters and albedos. As a first step to understanding the size/frequency distribution of the debris population in earth orbit, these thermal models have been modified to determine the sizes of orbiting debris. When possible, the model results have been compared to spherical satellites of known diameter.

Can eccentric debris disks be long-lived?. A first numerical investigation and application to ζ2 Reticuli

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faramaz, V.; Beust, H.; Thébault, P.; Augereau, J.-C.; Bonsor, A.; del Burgo, C.; Ertel, S.; Marshall, J. P.; Milli, J.; Montesinos, B.; Mora, A.; Bryden, G.; Danchi, W.; Eiroa, C.; White, G. J.; Wolf, S.

2014-03-01

Context. Imaging of debris disks has found evidence for both eccentric and offset disks. One hypothesis is that they provide evidence for massive perturbers, for example, planets or binary companions, which sculpt the observed structures. One such disk was recently observed in the far-IR by the Herschel Space Observatory around ζ2 Reticuli. In contrast with previously reported systems, the disk is significantly eccentric, and the system is several Gyr old. Aims: We aim to investigate the long-term evolution of eccentric structures in debris disks caused by a perturber on an eccentric orbit around the star. We hypothesise that the observed eccentric disk around ζ2 Reticuli might be evidence of such a scenario. If so, we are able to constrain the mass and orbit of a potential perturber, either a giant planet or a binary companion. Methods: Analytical techniques were used to predict the effects of a perturber on a debris disk. Numerical N-body simulations were used to verify these results and further investigate the observable structures that may be produced by eccentric perturbers. The long-term evolution of the disk geometry was examined, with particular application to the ζ2 Reticuli system. In addition, synthetic images of the disk were produced for direct comparison with Herschel observations. Results: We show that an eccentric companion can produce both the observed offsets and eccentric disks. These effects are not immediate, and we characterise the timescale required for the disk to develop to an eccentric state (and any spirals to vanish). For ζ2 Reticuli, we derive limits on the mass and orbit of the companion required to produce the observations. Synthetic images show that the pattern observed around ζ2 Reticuli can be produced by an eccentric disk seen close to edge-on, and allow us to bring additional constraints on the disk parameters of our model (disk flux and extent). Conclusions: We conclude that eccentric planets or stellar companions can induce long-lived eccentric structures in debris disks. Observations of such eccentric structures thus provide potential evidence of the presence of such a companion in a planetary system. We considered the specific example of ζ2 Reticuli, whose observed eccentric disk can be explained by a distant companion (at tens of AU) on an eccentric orbit (ep ≳ 0.3). Appendices are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.orgHerschel Space Observatory is an ESA space observatory with science instruments provided by European-led Principal Investigator consortia and with important participation from NASA.

Debris thickness patterns on debris-covered glaciers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Leif S.; Anderson, Robert S.

2018-06-01

Many debris-covered glaciers have broadly similar debris thickness patterns: surface debris thickens and tends to transition from convex- to concave-up-down glacier. We explain this pattern using theory (analytical and numerical models) paired with empirical observations. Down glacier debris thickening results from the conveyor-belt-like nature of the glacier surface in the ablation zone (debris can typically only be added but not removed) and from the inevitable decline in ice surface velocity toward the terminus. Down-glacier thickening of debris leads to the reduction of sub-debris melt and debris emergence toward the terminus. Convex-up debris thickness patterns occur near the up-glacier end of debris covers where debris emergence dominates (ablation controlled). Concave-up debris thickness patterns occur toward glacier termini where declining surface velocities dominate (velocity controlled). A convex-concave debris thickness profile inevitably results from the transition between ablation-control and velocity-control down-glacier. Debris thickness patterns deviating from this longitudinal shape are most likely caused by changes in hillslope debris supply through time. By establishing this expected debris thickness pattern, the effects of climate change on debris cover can be better identified.

Space Debris and Space Safety - Looking Forward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ailor, W.; Krag, H.

Man's activities in space are creating a shell of space debris around planet Earth which provides a growing risk of collision with operating satellites and manned systems. Including both the larger tracked objects and the small, untracked debris, more than 98% of the estimated 600,000 objects larger than 1 cm currently in orbit are “space junk”--dead satellites, expended rocket stages, debris from normal operations, fragments from explosions and collisions, and other material. Recognizing the problem, space faring nations have joined together to develop three basic principles for minimizing the growth of the debris population: prevent on-orbit breakups, remove spacecraft and orbital stages that have reached the end of their mission operations from the useful densely populated orbit regions, and limit the objects released during normal operations. This paper provides an overview of what is being done to support these three principles and describes proposals that an active space traffic control service to warn satellite operators of pending collisions with large objects combined with a program to actively remove large objects may reduce the rate of future collisions. The paper notes that cost and cost effectiveness are important considerations that will affect the evolution of such systems.

Making Debris Avoidance Decisions for ESMO's EOS Mission Set

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mantziaras, Dimitrios

2016-01-01

The presentation will cover the aspects of making debris risk decisions from the NASA Mission Director's perspective, specifically for NASA Earth Science Mission Operations (ESMO) Earth Observing System (EOS) mission set. ESMO has been involved in analyzing potential debris risk conjunctions with secondary objects since the inception of this discipline. Through the cumulated years of experience and continued exposure to various debris scenarios, ESMO's understanding of the problem and process to deal with this issue has evolved. The presentation will describe the evolution of the ESMO process, specifically as it relates to the maneuver execution and spacecraft risk management decision process. It will briefly cover the original Drag Make-Up Maneuver, several day, methodical manually intensive, ramp up waive off approach, to the present day more automated, pre-canned onboard command, tools based approach. The presentation will also cover the key information needed to make debris decisions and challenges in doing so while still trying to meet science goals, constellation constraints and manage resources. A slide or two at the end of the presentation, will be devoted to discussing what further improvements could be helpful to improve decision making and future process improvement plans challenges.

LightForce photon-pressure collision avoidance: Efficiency analysis in the current debris environment and long-term simulation perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang Yang, Fan; Nelson, Bron; Aziz, Jonathan; Carlino, Roberto; Dono Perez, Andres; Faber, Nicolas; Foster, Cyrus; Frost, Chad; Henze, Chris; Karacalıoğlu, Arif Göktuğ; Levit, Creon; Marshall, William; Mason, James; O'Toole, Conor; Swenson, Jason; Worden, Simon P.; Stupl, Jan

2016-09-01

This work provides an efficiency analysis of the LightForce space debris collision avoidance scheme in the current debris environment and describes a simulation approach to assess its impact on the long-term evolution of the space debris environment. LightForce aims to provide just-in-time collision avoidance by utilizing photon pressure from ground-based industrial lasers. These ground stations impart minimal accelerations to increase the miss distance for a predicted conjunction between two objects. In the first part of this paper we will present research that investigates the short-term effect of a few systems consisting of 20 kW class lasers directed by 1.5 m diameter telescopes using adaptive optics. The results found such a network of ground stations to mitigate more than 85 percent of conjunctions and could lower the expected number of collisions in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) by an order of magnitude. While these are impressive numbers that indicate LightForce's utility in the short-term, the remaining 15 % of possible collisions contain (among others) conjunctions between two massive objects that would add large amount of debris if they collide. Still, conjunctions between massive objects and smaller objects can be mitigated. Hence, we choose to expand the capabilities of the simulation software to investigate the overall effect of a network of LightForce stations on the long-term debris evolution. In the second part of this paper, we will present the planned simulation approach for that effort. For the efficiency analysis of collision avoidance in the current debris environment, we utilize a simulation approach that uses the entire Two Line Element (TLE) catalog in LEO for a given day as initial input. These objects are propagated for one year and an all-on-all conjunction analysis is performed. For conjunctions that fall below a range threshold, we calculate the probability of collision and record those values. To assess efficiency, we compare a baseline (without collision avoidance) conjunction analysis with an analysis where LightForce is active. Using that approach, we take into account that collision avoidance maneuvers could have effects on third objects. Performing all-on-all conjunction analyses for extended period of time requires significant computer resources; hence we implemented this simulation utilizing a highly parallel approach on the NASA Pleiades supercomputer.

LightForce photon-pressure collision avoidance: Efficiency analysis in the current debris environment and long-term simulation perspective

PubMed Central

Yang, Fan Yang; Nelson, Bron; Aziz, Jonathan; Carlino, Roberto; Perez, Andres Dono; Faber, Nicolas; Foster, Cyrus; Frost, Chad; Henze, Chris; Karacalıoğlu, Arif Göktuğ; Levit, Creon; Marshall, William; Mason, James; O’Toole, Conor; Swenson, Jason; Worden, Simon P.; Stupl, Jan

2017-01-01

This work provides an efficiency analysis of the LightForce space debris collision avoidance scheme in the current debris environment and describes a simulation approach to assess its impact on the long-term evolution of the space debris environment. LightForce aims to provide just-in-time collision avoidance by utilizing photon pressure from ground-based industrial lasers. These ground stations impart minimal accelerations to increase the miss distance for a predicted conjunction between two objects. In the first part of this paper we will present research that investigates the short-term effect of a few systems consisting of 20 kW class lasers directed by 1.5 m diameter telescopes using adaptive optics. The results found such a network of ground stations to mitigate more than 85 percent of conjunctions and could lower the expected number of collisions in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) by an order of magnitude. While these are impressive numbers that indicate LightForce’s utility in the short-term, the remaining 15 % of possible collisions contain (among others) conjunctions between two massive objects that would add large amount of debris if they collide. Still, conjunctions between massive objects and smaller objects can be mitigated. Hence, we choose to expand the capabilities of the simulation software to investigate the overall effect of a network of LightForce stations on the long-term debris evolution. In the second part of this paper, we will present the planned simulation approach for that effort. For the efficiency analysis of collision avoidance in the current debris environment, we utilize a simulation approach that uses the entire Two Line Element (TLE) catalog in LEO for a given day as initial input. These objects are propagated for one year and an all-on-all conjunction analysis is performed. For conjunctions that fall below a range threshold, we calculate the probability of collision and record those values. To assess efficiency, we compare a baseline (without collision avoidance) conjunction analysis with an analysis where LightForce is active. Using that approach, we take into account that collision avoidance maneuvers could have effects on third objects. Performing all-on-all conjunction analyses for extended period of time requires significant computer resources; hence we implemented this simulation utilizing a highly parallel approach on the NASA Pleiades supercomputer. PMID:29302129

LightForce photon-pressure collision avoidance: Efficiency analysis in the current debris environment and long-term simulation perspective.

PubMed

Yang, Fan Yang; Nelson, Bron; Aziz, Jonathan; Carlino, Roberto; Perez, Andres Dono; Faber, Nicolas; Foster, Cyrus; Frost, Chad; Henze, Chris; Karacalıoğlu, Arif Göktuğ; Levit, Creon; Marshall, William; Mason, James; O'Toole, Conor; Swenson, Jason; Worden, Simon P; Stupl, Jan

2016-09-01

This work provides an efficiency analysis of the LightForce space debris collision avoidance scheme in the current debris environment and describes a simulation approach to assess its impact on the long-term evolution of the space debris environment. LightForce aims to provide just-in-time collision avoidance by utilizing photon pressure from ground-based industrial lasers. These ground stations impart minimal accelerations to increase the miss distance for a predicted conjunction between two objects. In the first part of this paper we will present research that investigates the short-term effect of a few systems consisting of 20 kW class lasers directed by 1.5 m diameter telescopes using adaptive optics. The results found such a network of ground stations to mitigate more than 85 percent of conjunctions and could lower the expected number of collisions in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) by an order of magnitude. While these are impressive numbers that indicate LightForce's utility in the short-term, the remaining 15 % of possible collisions contain (among others) conjunctions between two massive objects that would add large amount of debris if they collide. Still, conjunctions between massive objects and smaller objects can be mitigated. Hence, we choose to expand the capabilities of the simulation software to investigate the overall effect of a network of LightForce stations on the long-term debris evolution. In the second part of this paper, we will present the planned simulation approach for that effort. For the efficiency analysis of collision avoidance in the current debris environment, we utilize a simulation approach that uses the entire Two Line Element (TLE) catalog in LEO for a given day as initial input. These objects are propagated for one year and an all-on-all conjunction analysis is performed. For conjunctions that fall below a range threshold, we calculate the probability of collision and record those values. To assess efficiency, we compare a baseline (without collision avoidance) conjunction analysis with an analysis where LightForce is active. Using that approach, we take into account that collision avoidance maneuvers could have effects on third objects. Performing all-on-all conjunction analyses for extended period of time requires significant computer resources; hence we implemented this simulation utilizing a highly parallel approach on the NASA Pleiades supercomputer.

Tornado Damage Assessment: Reconstructing the Wind Through Debris Tracking and Treefall Pattern Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godfrey, C. M.; Peterson, C. J.; Lombardo, F.

2017-12-01

Efforts to enhance the resilience of communities to tornadoes requires an understanding of the interconnected nature of debris and damage propagation in both the built and natural environment. A first step toward characterizing the interconnectedness of these elements within a given community involves detailed post-event surveys of tornado damage. Such damage surveys immediately followed the 22 January 2017 EF3 tornadoes in the southern Georgia towns of Nashville and Albany. After assigning EF-scale ratings to impacted structures, the authors geotagged hundreds of pieces of debris scattered around selected residential structures and outbuildings in each neighborhood and paired each piece of debris with its source structure. Detailed information on trees in the vicinity of the structures supplements the debris data, including the species, dimensions, location, fall direction, and level of damage. High-resolution satellite imagery helps to identify the location and fall direction of hundreds of additional forest trees. These debris and treefall patterns allow an estimation of the near-surface wind field using a Rankine vortex model coupled with both a tree stability model and an infrastructure fragility model that simulates debris flight. Comparisons between the modeled damage and the actual treefall and debris field show remarkable similarities for a selected set of vortex parameters, indicating the viability of this approach for estimating enhanced Fujita scale levels, determining the near-surface wind field of a tornado during its passage through a neighborhood, and identifying how debris may contribute to the overall risk from tornadoes.

ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krisko, P. H.; Flegel, S.

2012-01-01

The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA's ORDEM 3.0 and ESA's MASTER-2009, have been publicly released within the last year. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in near-Earth orbit. The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris but are still large enough to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. This paper describes the population generation and categorization of both ORDEM 3.0 and MASTER-2009; their sources (both known and presumed), current supporting data and theory, and methods of population verification. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are presented and discussed. Future collaborative analysis is noted.

Synergy of debris mitigation and removal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Hugh G.; White, Adam E.; Crowther, Richard; Stokes, Hedley

2012-12-01

Since the end of the 20th Century there has been considerable effort made to devise mitigation measures to limit the growth of the debris population. This activity has led to the implementation of a "25-year rule" by a number of space-faring nations for the post-mission disposal of spacecraft and orbital stages intersecting the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) region. Through the use of projections made by computer models, it was anticipated that this 25-year rule, together with passivation and suppression of mission-related debris, would be sufficient to prevent the unconstrained growth of the LEO debris population. In the last decade both the LEO debris environment and the debris modelling capability have seen significant changes. In particular, recent population growth has been driven by a number of major break-ups, including the intentional destruction of the Fengyun-1C spacecraft and the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251. State-of-the-art evolutionary models indicate that the LEO debris population will continue to grow in spite of good compliance with the commonly adopted mitigation measures and even in the absence of new launches. Consequently, this has led to considerable interest in the development of remediation measures and, especially, in debris removal. In this paper, we present a new and large study of debris mitigation and removal using the University of Southampton's evolutionary model, DAMAGE, together with the latest MASTER model population of objects ≥10 cm in LEO. Here, we have employed a concurrent approach to mitigation and remediation, whereby changes to the PMD rule and the inclusion of other mitigation measures have been considered together with multiple removal strategies. In this way, we have been able to demonstrate the synergy of these mitigation and remediation measures and to identify potential, aggregate solutions to the space debris problem. The results suggest that reducing the PMD rule offers benefits that include an increase in the effectiveness of debris removal and a corresponding increase in the confidence that these combined measures will lead to the stabilisation of the LEO debris population.

A model of early formation of uranium molecular oxides in laser-ablated plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finko, Mikhail; Curreli, Davide; Azer, Magdi; Weisz, David; Crowhurst, Jonathan; Rose, Timothy; Koroglu, Batikan; Radousky, Harry; Zaug, Joseph; Armstrong, Mike

2017-10-01

An important problem within the field of nuclear forensics is fractionation: the formation of post-detonation nuclear debris whose composition does not reflect that of the source weapon. We are investigating uranium fractionation in rapidly cooling plasma using a combined experimental and modeling approach. In particular, we use laser ablation of uranium metal samples to produce a low-temperature plasma with physical conditions similar to a condensing nuclear fireball. Here we present a first plasma-chemistry model of uranium molecular species formation during the early stage of laser ablated plasma evolution in atmospheric oxygen. The system is simulated using a global kinetic model with rate coefficients calculated according to literature data and the application of reaction rate theory. The model allows for a detailed analysis of the evolution of key uranium molecular species and represents the first step in producing a uranium fireball model that is kinetically validated against spatially and temporally resolved spectroscopy measurements. This project was sponsored by the DoD, Defense Threat Reduction Agency, Grant HDTRA1-16- 1-0020. This work was performed in part under the auspices of the U.S. DoE by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52- 07NA27344.

Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Squire, Michael D.; Cooke, William J.; Williamsen, Joel; Kessler, Donald; Vesely, William E.; Hull, Scott H.; Schonberg, William; Peterson, Glenn E.; Jenkin, Alan B.; Cornford, Steven L.

2015-01-01

The Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Project requested the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) conduct an independent evaluation of the Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) models used in the latest JPSS MMOD risk assessment. The principal focus of the assessment was to compare Orbital Debris Engineering Model version 3 (ORDEM 3.0) with the Meteoroid and Space Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference version 2009 (MASTER-2009) and Aerospace Debris Environment Projection Tool (ADEPT) and provide recommendations to the JPSS Project regarding MMOD protection. The outcome of the NESC assessment is contained in this report.

Satellite Collision Modeling with Physics-Based Hydrocodes: Debris Generation Predictions of the Iridium-Cosmos Collision Event and Other Impact Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Springer, H.; Miller, W.; Levatin, J.; Pertica, A.; Olivier, S.

2010-09-01

Satellite collision debris poses risks to existing space assets and future space missions. Predictive models of debris generated from these hypervelocity collisions are critical for developing accurate space situational awareness tools and effective mitigation strategies. Hypervelocity collisions involve complex phenomenon that spans several time and length-scales. We have developed a satellite collision debris modeling approach consisting of a Lagrangian hydrocode enriched with smooth particle hydrodynamics (SPH), advanced material failure models, detailed satellite mesh models, and massively parallel computers. These computational studies enable us to investigate the influence of satellite center-of-mass (CM) overlap and orientation, relative velocity, and material composition on the size, velocity, and material type distributions of collision debris. We have applied our debris modeling capability to the recent Iridium 33-Cosmos 2251 collision event. While the relative velocity was well understood in this event, the degree of satellite CM overlap and orientation was ill-defined. In our simulations, we varied the collision CM overlap and orientation of the satellites from nearly maximum overlap to partial overlap on the outermost extents of the satellites (i.e, solar panels and gravity boom). As expected, we found that with increased satellite overlap, the overall debris cloud mass and momentum (transfer) increases, the average debris size decreases, and the debris velocity increases. The largest predicted debris can also provide insight into which satellite components were further removed from the impact location. A significant fraction of the momentum transfer is imparted to the smallest debris (< 1-5mm, dependent on mesh resolution), especially in large CM overlap simulations. While the inclusion of the smallest debris is critical to enforcing mass and momentum conservation in hydrocode simulations, there seems to be relatively little interest in their disposition. Based on comparing our results to observations, it is unlikely that the Iridium 33-Cosmos 2251 collision event was a large mass-overlap collision. We also performed separate simulations studying the debris generated by the collision of 5 and 10 cm spherical projectiles on the Iridium 33 satellite at closing velocities of 5, 10, and 15 km/s. It is important to understand the vulnerability of satellites to small debris threats, given their pervasiveness in orbit. These studies can also be merged with probabilistic conjunction analysis to better understand the risk to space assets. In these computational studies, we found that momentum transfer, kinetic energy losses due to dissipative mechanisms (e.g., fracture), fragment number, and fragment velocity increases with increasing velocity for a fixed projectile size. For a fixed velocity, we found that the smaller projectile size more efficiently transfers momentum to the satellite. This latter point has an important implication: Eight (spaced) 5 cm debris objects can impart more momentum to the satellite, and likely cause more damage, than a single 10 cm debris object at the same velocity. Further studies are required to assess the satellite damage induced by 1-5 cm sized debris objects, as well as multiple debris objects, in this velocity range.

Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staley, Dennis; Negri, Jacquelyn; Kean, Jason

2016-04-01

Population expansion into fire-prone steeplands has resulted in an increase in post-fire debris-flow risk in the western United States. Logistic regression methods for determining debris-flow likelihood and the calculation of empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow initiation represent two common approaches for characterizing hazard and reducing risk. Logistic regression models are currently being used to rapidly assess debris-flow hazard in response to design storms of known intensities (e.g. a 10-year recurrence interval rainstorm). Empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds comprise a major component of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Weather Service (NWS) debris-flow early warning system at a regional scale in southern California. However, these two modeling approaches remain independent, with each approach having limitations that do not allow for synergistic local-scale (e.g. drainage-basin scale) characterization of debris-flow hazard during intense rainfall. The current logistic regression equations consider rainfall a unique independent variable, which prevents the direct calculation of the relation between rainfall intensity and debris-flow likelihood. Regional (e.g. mountain range or physiographic province scale) rainfall intensity-duration thresholds fail to provide insight into the basin-scale variability of post-fire debris-flow hazard and require an extensive database of historical debris-flow occurrence and rainfall characteristics. Here, we present a new approach that combines traditional logistic regression and intensity-duration threshold methodologies. This method allows for local characterization of both the likelihood that a debris-flow will occur at a given rainfall intensity, the direct calculation of the rainfall rates that will result in a given likelihood, and the ability to calculate spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in recently burned areas. Our approach synthesizes the two methods by incorporating measured rainfall intensity into each model variable (based on measures of topographic steepness, burn severity and surface properties) within the logistic regression equation. This approach provides a more realistic representation of the relation between rainfall intensity and debris-flow likelihood, as likelihood values asymptotically approach zero when rainfall intensity approaches 0 mm/h, and increase with more intense rainfall. Model performance was evaluated by comparing predictions to several existing regional thresholds. The model, based upon training data collected in southern California, USA, has proven to accurately predict rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for other areas in the western United States not included in the original training dataset. In addition, the improved logistic regression model shows promise for emergency planning purposes and real-time, site-specific early warning. With further validation, this model may permit the prediction of spatially-explicit intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in areas where empirically derived regional thresholds do not exist. This improvement would permit the expansion of the early-warning system into other regions susceptible to post-fire debris flow.

Debris flows resulting from glacial-lake outburst floods in tibet, China

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cui, P.; Dang, C.; Cheng, Z.; Scott, K.

2010-01-01

During the last 70 years of general climatic amelioration, 18 glacial-lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and related debris flows have occurred from 15 moraine-dammed lakes in Tibet, China. Catastrophic loss of life and property has occurred because of the following factors: the large volumes of water discharged, the steep gradients of the U-shaped channels, and the amount and texture of the downstream channel bed and bank material. The peak discharge of each GLOF exceeded 1000 m3/s. These flood discharges transformed to non-cohesive debris flows if the channels contained sufficient loose sediment for entrainment (bulking) and if their gradients were >1%. We focus on this key element, transformation, and suggest that it be included in evaluating future GLOF-related risk, the probability of transformation to debris flow and hyperconcentrated flow. The general, sequential evolution of the flows can be described as from proximal GLOFs, to sedimentladen streamflow, to hyperconcentrated flow, to non-cohesive debris flow (viscous or cohesive debris flow only if sufficient fine sediment is present), and then, distally, back to hyperconcentrated flow and sediment-laden streamflow as sediment is progressively deposited. Most of the Tibet examples transformed only to non-cohesive debris flows. The important lesson for future hazard assessment and mitigation planning is that, as a GLOF entrains (bulks) enough sediment to become a debris flow, the flow volume must increase by at least three times (the "bulking factor"). In fact, the transforming flow waves overrun and mix with downstream streamflow, in addition to adding the entrained sediment (and thus enabling addition of yet more sediment and a bulking factor in excess of three times). To effectively reduce the risk of GLOF debris flows, reducing the level of a potentially dangerous lake with a siphon or excavated spillway or installing gabions in combination with a downstream debris dam are the primary approaches.

Predicting debris

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kessler, Donald J.

1988-01-01

The probable amount, sizes, and relative velocities of debris are discussed, giving examples of the damage caused by debris, and focusing on the use of mathematical models to forecast the debris environment and solar activity now and in the future. Most debris are within 2,000 km of the earth's surface. The average velocity of spacecraft-debris collisions varies from 9 km/sec at 30 degrees of inclination to 13 km/sec near polar orbits. Mathematical models predict a 5 percent per year increase in the large-fragment population, producing a small-fragment population increase of 10 percent per year until the year 2060, the time of critical density. A 10 percent increase in the large population would cause the critical density to be reached around 2025.

Branching pattern in natural drainage network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hooshyar, M.; Singh, A.; Wang, D.

2017-12-01

The formation and growth of river channels and their network evolution are governed by the erosional and depositional processes operating on the landscape due to movement of water. The branching structure of drainage network is an important feature related to the network topology and contain valuable information about the forming mechanisms of the landscape. We studied the branching patterns in natural drainage networks, extracted from 1 m Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of 120 catchments with minimal human impacts across the United States. We showed that the junction angles have two distinct modes an the observed modes are physically explained as the optimal angles that result in minimum energy dissipation and are linked to the exponent characterizing slope-area curve. Our findings suggest that the flow regimes, debris-flow dominated or fluvial, have distinct characteristic angles which are functions of the scaling exponent of the slope-area curve. These findings enable us to understand the geomorphological signature of hydrological processes on drainage networks and develop more refined landscape evolution models.

Space-based detection of space debris by photometric and polarimetric characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pang, Shuxia; Wang, Hu; Lu, Xiaoyun; Shen, Yang; Pan, Yue

2017-10-01

The number of space debris has been increasing dramatically in the last few years, and is expected to increase as much in the future. As the orbital debris population grows, the risk of collision between debris and other orbital objects also grows. Therefore, space debris detection is a particularly important task for space environment security, and then supports for space debris modeling, protection and mitigation. This paper aims to review space debris detection systematically and completely. Firstly, the research status of space debris detection at home and abroad is presented. Then, three kinds of optical observation methods of space debris are summarized. Finally, we propose a space-based detection scheme for space debris by photometric and polarimetric characteristics.

A highly dynamical debris disc in an evolved planetary system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manser, Christopher

2017-08-01

Our HST/COS survey for the photospheric pollution by planetary debris undisputably demonstrates that at least 25% of white dwarfs host an evolved planetary system. The debris discs holding the material that accretes onto the white dwarf are produced by the tidal disruption of asteroids, and are observed in nearly 40 systems by infrared excess emission from micron-sized dust. In a small number of cases, we have also detected double-peaked Ca II 860 nm emission lines from a metal-rich gaseous disc in addition to photospheric pollution and circumstellar dust. Our ground-based monitoring of the brightest of these systems, SDSS J1228+1040, over the last eleven years shows a dramatic morphological change in the emission line profiles on the time-scale of years. The evolution of the line profiles is consistent with the precession of an eccentric disc on a period of 25 years, indicating a recent dynamical interaction within the underlying dust disc. This could either be related to the initial circularisation of the disc, or a secondary impact onto an existing disc. We expect that the accretion rate onto the white dwarf varies on the same timescale as the Ca II emission lines, and there is the tantalising possibility to detect changes in the bulk abundances, if the impact of a planetesimal with a different bulk abundance stirred up the disc. We request a small amount of COS time to monitor the debris abundances over the next three HST Cycles to test this hypothesis, and bolster our understanding of the late evolution of planetary systems.

CONSTELL: NASA's Satellite Constellation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Theall, Jeffrey R.; Krisko, Paula H.; Opiela, John N.; McKay, Gordon A. (Technical Monitor)

1999-01-01

The CONSTELL program represents an initial effort by the orbital debris modeling group at NASA/JSC to address the particular issues and problems raised by the presence of LEO satellite constellations. It was designed to help NASA better understand the potential orbital debris consequences of having satellite constellations operating in the future in LEO. However, it could also be used by constellation planners to evaluate architecture or design alternatives that might lessen debris consequences for their constellation or lessen the debris effects on other users of space. CONSTELL is designed to perform debris environment projections rapidly so it can support parametric assessments involving either the constellations themselves or the background environment which represents non-constellation users of the space. The projections need to be calculated quickly because a number of projections are often required to adequately span the parameter space of interest. To this end CONSTELL uses the outputs of other NASA debris environment models as inputs, thus doing away with the need for time consuming upfront calculations. Specifically, CONSTELL uses EVOLVE or ORDEM96 debris spatial density results as its background environment, debris cloud snapshot templates to simulate debris cloud propagation, and time dependent orbit profiles of the intact non- functional constellation spacecraft and upper stages. In this paper the environmental consequences of the deployment of particular LEO satellite constellations using the CONSTELL model will be evaluated. Constellations that will undergo a parametric assessment will reflect realistic parameter values. Among other results the increase in loss rate of non-constellation spacecraft, the number of collisions involving constellation elements, and the replacement rate of constellation satellites as a result of debris impact will be presented.

An Estimation of Construction and Demolition Debris in Seoul, Korea: Waste Amount, Type, and Estimating Model.

PubMed

Seo, Seongwon; Hwang, Yongwoo

1999-08-01

Construction and demolition (C&D) debris is generated at the site of various construction activities. However, the amount of the debris is usually so large that it is necessary to estimate the amount of C&D debris as accurately as possible for effective waste management and control in urban areas. In this paper, an effective estimation method using a statistical model was proposed. The estimation process was composed of five steps: estimation of the life span of buildings; estimation of the floor area of buildings to be constructed and demolished; calculation of individual intensity units of C&D debris; and estimation of the future C&D debris production. This method was also applied in the city of Seoul as an actual case, and the estimated amount of C&D debris in Seoul in 2021 was approximately 24 million tons. Of this total amount, 98% was generated by demolition, and the main components of debris were concrete and brick.

Temporal variability of marine debris deposition at Tern Island in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands.

PubMed

Agustin, Alyssa E; Merrifield, Mark A; Potemra, James T; Morishige, Carey

2015-12-15

A twenty-two year record of marine debris collected on Tern Island is used to characterize the temporal variability of debris deposition at a coral atoll in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. Debris deposition tends to be episodic, without a significant relationship to local forcing processes associated with winds, sea level, waves, and proximity to the Subtropical Convergence Zone. The General NOAA Operational Modeling Environment is used to estimate likely debris pathways for Tern Island. The majority of modeled arrivals come from the northeast following prevailing trade winds and surface currents, with trajectories indicating the importance of the convergence zone, or garbage patch, in the North Pacific High region. Although debris deposition does not generally exhibit a significant seasonal cycle, some debris types contain considerable 3 cycle/yr variability that is coherent with wind and surface pressure over a broad region north of Tern. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Space Shuttle and Launch Pad Computational Fluid Dynamics Model for Lift-off Debris Transport Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dougherty, Sam; West, Jeff; Droege, Alan; Wilson, Josh; Liever, Peter; Slaby, Matthew

2006-01-01

This paper discusses the Space Shuttle Lift-off CFD model developed for potential Lift-off Debris transport for return-to-flight. The Lift-off portion of the flight is defined as the time starting with tanking of propellants until tower clear, approximately T0+6 seconds, where interactions with the launch pad cease. A CFD model containing the Space Shuttle and launch Pad geometry has been constructed and executed. Simplifications required in the construction of the model are presented and discussed. A body-fitted overset grid of up to 170 million grid points was developed which allowed positioning of the Vehicle relative to the Launch Pad over the first six seconds of Climb-Out. The CFD model works in conjunction with a debris particle transport model and a debris particle impact damage tolerance model. These models have been used to assess the interactions of the Space Shuttle plumes, the wind environment, and their interactions with each other and the Launch Pad and their ultimate effect on potential debris during Lift-off.

Simulations of SSLV Ascent and Debris Transport

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rogers, Stuart; Aftosmis, Michael; Murman, Scott; Chan, William; Gomez, Ray; Gomez, Ray; Vicker, Darby; Stuart, Phil

2006-01-01

A viewgraph presentation on Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) Simulation of Space Shuttle Launch Vehicle (SSLV) ascent and debris transport analysis is shown. The topics include: 1) CFD simulations of the Space Shuttle Launch Vehicle ascent; 2) Debris transport analysis; 3) Debris aerodynamic modeling; and 4) Other applications.

The Effect of a Potentially Low Solar Cycle #24 on Orbital Lifetimes of Fengyun 1-C Debris

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitlock, David; Johnson, Nicholas; Matney, Mark; Krisko, Paula

2008-01-01

The magnitude of Solar Cycle #24 will have a non-trivial impact on the lifetimes of debris pieces that resulted from the intentional hypervelocity impact of the Fengyun 1-C satellite in January 2007. Recent solar flux measurements indicate Solar Cycle #24 has begun in the last few months, and will continue until approximately 2019. While there have been differing opinions on whether the intensity of this solar cycle will be higher or lower than usual, the Space Weather Prediction Center within the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/SWPC) has recently forecast unusually low solar activity, which would result in longer orbital lifetimes. Using models for both the breakup of Fengyun 1-C and the propagation of the resultant debris cloud, the Orbital Debris Program Office at NASA Johnson Space Center conducted a study to better understand the impact of the solar cycle on lifetimes for pieces as small as 1 mm. Using a modified collision breakup model and PROP3D propagation software, the orbits of nearly 2 million objects 1 mm and larger were propagated for up to 200 years. By comparing a normal solar cycle with that of the NOAA/SWPC forecast low cycle, the effect of the solar flux on the lifetimes of the debris pieces is evaluated. The modeling of the low solar cycle shows an additional debris count of 12% for pieces larger than 10 cm by 2019 when compared to the resultant debris count using a normal cycle. The difference becomes more exaggerated (over 15%) for debris count in the smaller size regimes. However, in 50 years, the models predict the differences in debris count from differing models of Solar Cycle #24 to be less than 10% for all size regimes, with less variance in the smaller sizes. Understanding the longevity of the debris cloud will affect collision probabilities for both operational spacecraft and large derelict objects over the next century and beyond.

Development of a debris flow model in a geotechnical centrifuge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cabrera, Miguel Angel; Wu, Wei

2013-04-01

Debris flows occur in three main stages. At first the initial soil mass, which rests in a rigid configuration, reaches a critic state releasing a finite mass over a failure surface. In the second stage the released mass starts being transported downhill in a dynamic motion. Segregation, erosion, entrainment, and variable channel geometry are among the more common characteristics of this stage. Finally, at the third stage the transported mass plus the mass gained or loosed during the transportation stage reach a flat and/or a wide area and its deposition starts, going back to a rigid configuration. The lack of understanding and predictability of debris flow from the traditional theoretical approaches has lead that in the last two decades the mechanics of debris flows started to be analysed around the world. Nevertheless, the validation of recent numerical advances with experimental data is required. Centrifuge modelling is an experimental tool that allows the test of natural processes under defined boundary conditions in a small scale configuration, with a good level of accuracy in comparison with a full scale test. This paper presents the development of a debris flow model in a geotechnical centrifuge focused on the second stage of the debris flow process explained before. A small scale model of an inclined flume will be developed, with laboratory instrumentation able to measure the pore pressure, normal stress, and velocity path, developed in a scaled debris flow in motion. The model aims to reproduce in a controlled environment the main parameters of debris flow motion. This work is carried under the EC 7th Framework Programme as part of the MUMOLADE project. The dataset and data-analysis obtained from the tests will provide a qualitative description of debris flow motion-mechanics and be of valuable information for MUMOLADE co-researchers and for the debris flow research community in general.

Glacial-hydrogeomorphic process of proglacial lake expansion and exploring its amplification effect on glacier recession in the Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, C.; Sheng, Y.; Wang, J.; Ke, L.; Nie, Y.

2016-12-01

Glacial lakes, as a key component of the cryosphere in the Himalayas in response to climate change, pose significant threats to the downstream lives and properties and eco-environment via outburst floods, yet our understanding of their evolution and reaction mechanism with connected glaciers is limited. Here, a regional investigation of glacial lake evolution and glacial-hydrogeomorphic process was conducted by integrating optical imagery, satellite altimetry and DEM. A classification scheme was first used to group glacial lakes of similar glacial and geo-morphology. Our studies show that debris-contact proglacial lakes experienced much more rapid expansions than ice cliff-contact and non-glacier-contact lakes. We further estimate the mass balance of parent glaciers and elevation changes in lake surfaces and debris-covered glacier tongues. Results reveal that the upstream expansion of debris-contact proglacial lakes was not directly related to rising water levels but with a geomorphological alternation of upstream lake basins caused by ice melt-induced debris subsidence at glacier termini. It suggests that the hydrogeomorphic process of glacier thinning and retreat, in comparison with direct meltwater supply alone, may have governed primarily the recent glacial lake expansion across the Himalayas. The mechanism of proglacial lake expansion provides an indirect way to estimate the lowering rates of glacier terminus. The debris-covered glacier fronts show considerable ice melts, with the lowering rate ranging from 1.0 to 9.7 m/yr. The rates exhibit obvious correlations with contacted lake sizes, centerline length and area of glaciers, suggesting that the glacier termini thinning is the combined effect of interplays between glacial lakes and ice flux from parent glaciers. Our study implies that substantial mass loss occurred at lake-contact glacier fronts, which cannot be ignored in assessing the overall mass balance of Himalayan glaciers.

Research and Development on In-Situ Measurement Sensors for Micro-Meteoroid and Small Space Debris at JAXA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitazawa, Yukihito; Matsumoto, Haruhisa; Okudaira, Osamu; Kimoto, Yugo; Hanada, Toshiya; Akahoshi, Yasuhiro; Pauline, Faure; Sakurai, Akira; Funakoshi, Kunihiro; Yasaka, Testuo

2015-04-01

The history of Japanese R&D into in-situ sensors for micro-meteoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) measurements is neither particularly long nor short. Research into active sensors started for the meteoroid observation experiment on the HITEN (MUSES-A) satellite of ISAS/JAXA launched in 1990, which had MDC (Munich Dust Counter) on-board sensors for micro meteoroid measurement. This was a collaboration between Technische Universität München and ISAS/JAXA. The main purpose behind the start of passive sensor research was SOCCOR, a late 80's Japan-US mission that planned to capture cometary dust and return to the Earth. Although this mission was canceled, the research outcomes were employed in a JAXA micro debris sample return mission using calibrated aerogel involving the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station. There have been many other important activities apart from the above, and the knowledge generated from them has contributed to JAXA's development of a new type of active dust sensor. JAXA and its partners have been developing a simple in-situ active dust sensor of a new type to detect dust particles ranging from a hundred micrometers to several millimeters. The distribution and flux of the debris in the size range are not well understood and is difficult to measure using ground observations. However, it is important that the risk caused by such debris is assessed. In-situ measurement of debris in this size range is useful for 1) verifying meteoroid and debris environment models, 2) verifying meteoroid and debris environment evolution models, and 3) the real time detection of explosions, collisions and other unexpected orbital events. Multitudes of thin, conductive copper strips are formed at a fine pitch of 100 um on a film 12.5 um thick of nonconductive polyimide. An MMOD particle impact is detected when one or more strips are severed by being perforated by such an impact. This sensor is simple to produce and use and requires almost no calibration as it is essentially a digital system. Based on this sensor technology, the Kyushu Institute of Technology (Kyutech) has designed and developed an educational version of the sensor, which is currently on board the nano-satellite Horyu-II, which was built at Kyutech and launched on May 18, 2012 by JAXA. Although the sensor has a very small sensing area, sensor data were nonetheless successfully received. Moreover, a laboratory version of the sensor fitted on QSAT-EOS ("Tsukushi"), a small satellite, was be launched in November 2014. This version was developed and manufactured by Japan's QPS Institute to evaluate the sensor's capability regarding hypervelocity impact experiments at JAXA. JAXA's flight version, to be employed on satellites and/or the ISS, will be ready soon and a flight demonstration will be conducted on KOUNOTORI (HTV) in 2015. This paper reports on the R&D into in-situ measurement MMOD sensors at JAXA.

Comparison of debris flux models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sdunnus, H.; Beltrami, P.; Klinkrad, H.; Matney, M.; Nazarenko, A.; Wegener, P.

The availability of models to estimate the impact risk from the man-made space debris and the natural meteoroid environment is essential for both, manned and unmanned satellite missions. Various independent tools based on different approaches have been developed in the past years. Due to an increased knowledge of the debris environment and its sources e.g. from improved measurement capabilities, these models could be updated regularly, providing more detailed and more reliable simulations. This paper addresses an in-depth, quantitative comparison of widely distributed debris flux models which were recently updated, namely ESA's MASTER 2001 model, NASA's ORDEM 2000 and the Russian SDPA 2000 model. The comparison was performed in the frame of the work of the 20t h Interagency Debris Coordination (IADC) meeting held in Surrey, UK. ORDEM 2000ORDEM 2000 uses careful empirical estimates of the orbit populations based onthree primary data sources - the US Space Command Catalog, the H ystackaRadar, and the Long Duration Exposure Facility spacecraft returned surfaces.Further data (e.g. HAX and Goldstone radars, impacts on Shuttle windows andradiators, and others) were used to adjust these populations for regions in time,size, and space not covered by the primary data sets. Some interpolation andextrapolation to regions with no data (such as projections into the future) wasprovided by the EVOLVE model. MASTER 2001The ESA MASTER model offers a full three dimensional description of theterrestrial debris distribution reaching from LEO up to the GEO region. Fluxresults relative to an orbiting target or to an inertial volume can be resolved intosource terms, impactor characteristics and orbit, as well as impact velocity anddirection. All relevant debris source terms are considered by the MASTERmodel. For each simulated source, a corresponding debris generation model interms of mass/diameter distribution, additional velocities, and directionalspreading has been developed. A comprehensive perturbation model was used topropagate all objects to a reference epoch. SDPA 2000The Russian Space Debris Prediction and Analysis (SDPA) model is the semi-analytical stochastic tool for medium- and long-term forecast of the man-madedebris environment (with size larger than 1 mm), for construction of spatialdensity and velocity distribution in LEO and GEO as well as for risk evaluation.The last version of SDPA 2000 consists of ten individual modules related to theaforementioned tasks. The total characteristics of space debris of the differentsizes are considered (without partition of these characteristics into specificsources). The current space debris environment is characterised a) by the spatialdensity dependence on the altitude and latitude of a point, as well as on size ofobjects and b) by a statistical distribution of the magnitude and direction of spaceobjects velocities in an inertial geocentric coordinate system. Thesecharacteristics are constructed on the basis of the complex application of theaccessible measuring information and series of a priori data. The comparison is performed by applying the models to a large number of target orbits specified by a grid in terms of impactor size (6 gridpoints), target orbit perigee altitude (16 gridpoints), and target orbit inclination (15 gridpoints). These result provide a characteristic diagram of integral fluxes for all models, which will be compared. Further to this, the models are applied to orbits of particular interest, namely the ISS orbit, and a sun-synchronous orbit. For these cases, the comparison will include the comparison of flux directionality and velocity. References 1. Liou, J.-C., M. J. Matney, P. D. Anz-Meador, D. Kessler, M. Jansen, and J. R.Theall, 2001, "The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering ModelORDEM2000", NASA/TP-2002-210780. 2. P. Wegener, J. Bendisch, K.D. Bunte, H. Sdunnus; Upgrade of the ESAMASTER Model; Final Report of ESOC/TOS-GMA contract 12318/97/D/IM;May 2000 3. A.I. Nazarenko, I.L. Menchikov. Engineering Model of Space DebrisEnvironment. Third European Conference on Space Debris, Darmstadt,Germany, March 2001.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Springer, H K; Miller, W O; Levatin, J L

Satellite collision debris poses risks to existing space assets and future space missions. Predictive models of debris generated from these hypervelocity collisions are critical for developing accurate space situational awareness tools and effective mitigation strategies. Hypervelocity collisions involve complex phenomenon that spans several time- and length-scales. We have developed a satellite collision debris modeling approach consisting of a Lagrangian hydrocode enriched with smooth particle hydrodynamics (SPH), advanced material failure models, detailed satellite mesh models, and massively parallel computers. These computational studies enable us to investigate the influence of satellite center-of-mass (CM) overlap and orientation, relative velocity, and material composition onmore » the size, velocity, and material type distributions of collision debris. We have applied our debris modeling capability to the recent Iridium 33-Cosmos 2251 collision event. While the relative velocity was well understood in this event, the degree of satellite CM overlap and orientation was ill-defined. In our simulations, we varied the collision CM overlap and orientation of the satellites from nearly maximum overlap to partial overlap on the outermost extents of the satellites (i.e, solar panels and gravity boom). As expected, we found that with increased satellite overlap, the overall debris cloud mass and momentum (transfer) increases, the average debris size decreases, and the debris velocity increases. The largest predicted debris can also provide insight into which satellite components were further removed from the impact location. A significant fraction of the momentum transfer is imparted to the smallest debris (< 1-5mm, dependent on mesh resolution), especially in large CM overlap simulations. While the inclusion of the smallest debris is critical to enforcing mass and momentum conservation in hydrocode simulations, there seems to be relatively little interest in their disposition. Based on comparing our results to observations, it is unlikely that the Iridium 33-Cosmos 2251 collision event was a large mass-overlap collision. We also performed separate simulations studying the debris generated by the collision of 5 and 10 cm spherical projectiles on the Iridium 33 satellite at closing velocities of 5, 10, and 15 km/s. It is important to understand the vulnerability of satellites to small debris threats, given their pervasiveness in orbit. These studies can also be merged with probabilistic conjunction analysis to better understand the risk to space assets. In these computational studies, we found that momentum transfer, kinetic energy losses due to dissipative mechanisms (e.g., fracture), fragment number, and fragment velocity increases with increasing velocity for a fixed projectile size. For a fixed velocity, we found that the smaller projectile size more efficiently transfers momentum to the satellite. This latter point has an important implication: Eight (spaced) 5 cm debris objects can impart more momentum to the satellite, and likely cause more damage, than a single 10 cm debris object at the same velocity. Further studies are required to assess the satellite damage induced by 1-5 cm sized debris objects, as well as multiple debris objects, in this velocity range.« less

Comparing two models for post-wildfire debris flow susceptibility mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cramer, J.; Bursik, M. I.; Legorreta Paulin, G.

2017-12-01

Traditionally, probabilistic post-fire debris flow susceptibility mapping has been performed based on the typical method of failure for debris flows/landslides, where slip occurs along a basal shear zone as a result of rainfall infiltration. Recent studies have argued that post-fire debris flows are fundamentally different in their method of initiation, which is not infiltration-driven, but surface runoff-driven. We test these competing models by comparing the accuracy of the susceptibility maps produced by each initiation method. Debris flow susceptibility maps are generated according to each initiation method for a mountainous region of Southern California that recently experienced wildfire and subsequent debris flows. A multiple logistic regression (MLR), which uses the occurrence of past debris flows and the values of environmental parameters, was used to determine the probability of future debris flow occurrence. The independent variables used in the MLR are dependent on the initiation method; for example, depth to slip plane, and shear strength of soil are relevant to the infiltration initiation, but not surface runoff. A post-fire debris flow inventory serves as the standard to compare the two susceptibility maps, and was generated by LiDAR analysis and field based ground-truthing. The amount of overlap between the true locations where debris flow erosion can be documented, and where the MLR predicts high probability of debris flow initiation was statistically quantified. The Figure of Merit in Space (FMS) was used to compare the two models, and the results of the FMS comparison suggest that surface runoff-driven initiation better explains debris flow occurrence. Wildfire can breed conditions that induce debris flows in areas that normally would not be prone to them. Because of this, nearby communities at risk may not be equipped to protect themselves against debris flows. In California, there are just a few months between wildland fire season and the wet season to assess a community's risk and prepare. It is important, therefore, that researchers have a way to quickly and accurately assess the susceptibility for debris flows in recently burned areas.

Debris-flow mobilization from landslides

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iverson, R.M.; Reid, M.E.; LaHusen, R.G.

1997-01-01

Field observations, laboratory experiments, and theoretical analyses indicate that landslides mobilize to form debris flows by three processes: (a) widespread Coulomb failure within a sloping soil, rock, or sediment mass, (b) partial or complete liquefaction of the mass by high pore-fluid pressures, and (c) conversion of landslide translational energy to internal vibrational energy (i.e. granular temperature). These processes can operate independently, but in many circumstances they appear to operate simultaneously and synergistically. Early work on debris-flow mobilization described a similar interplay of processes but relied on mechanical models in which debris behavior was assumed to be fixed and governed by a Bingham or Bagnold rheology. In contrast, this review emphasizes models in which debris behavior evolves in response to changing pore pressures and granular temperatures. One-dimensional infinite-slope models provide insight by quantifying how pore pressures and granular temperatures can influence the transition from Coulomb failure to liquefaction. Analyses of multidimensional experiments reveal complications ignored in one-dimensional models and demonstrate that debris-flow mobilization may occur by at least two distinct modes in the field.

The Evolution of Gas in Protoplanetary Systems: The Herschel GASPS Open Time Key Programme

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberge, A.; Dent, W.

2010-01-01

The Gas in Protoplanetary Systems (GASPS) Open Time Key Programme for the Herschel Space Observatory will be the first extensive, systematic survey of gas in circumstellar disks over the critical transition from gas-rich protoplanetary through to gas-poor debris. The brightest spectral lines from disks lie in the far-infrared and arise from radii spanning roughly 10 to 100 AU, where giant planets are expected to form. Herschel is uniquely able to observe this wavelength regime with the sensitivity to allow a large scale survey. We will execute a 2-phase study using the PACS instrument. Phase I is a spectroscopic survey about 250 young stars for fine structure emission lines of [CII] (at 157 microns) and [OI] (at 63 microns). In Phase II, the brightest sources will be followed up with additional PACS spectroscopy ([OI] at 145 microns and some rotational lines of water). We expect that the gas mass sensitivity will be more than an order of magnitude lower than that achieved by ISO and Spitzer or expected for SOFIA. We will also measure the dust continuum to an equivalent mass sensitivity. We will observe several nearby clusters with ages from 1 to 30 Myr, encompassing a wide range of disk masses and stellar luminosities. The sample covers disk evolution from protoplanetary disks through to young debris disks, i.e. the main epoch of planet formation. With this extensive dataset, the GASPS project will: 1) trace gas and dust in the planet formation region across a large multivariate parameter space, 2) provide the first definitive measurement of the gas dissipation timescale in disks, 3) elucidate the evolutionary link between protoplanetary and debris disks, 4) investigate water abundances in the planetforming regions of disks, and 5) provide a huge database of disk observations and models with long-lasting legacy value for follow-up studies.

Sedimentary processes in modern and ancient oceanic arc settings: evidence from the Jurassic Talkeetna Formation of Alaska and the Mariana and Tonga Arcs, western Pacific

USGS Publications Warehouse

Draut, Amy E.; Clift, Peter D.

2006-01-01

Sediment deposited around oceanic volcanic ares potentially provides the most complete record of the tectonic and geochemical evolution of active margins. The use of such tectonic and geochemical records requires an accurate understanding of sedimentary dynamics in an arc setting: processes of deposition and reworking that affect the degree to which sediments represent the contemporaneous volcanism at the time of their deposition. We review evidence from the modern Mariana and Tonga arcs and the ancient arc crustal section in the Lower Jurassic Talkeetna Formation of south-central Alaska, and introduce new data from the Mariana Arc, to produce a conceptual model of volcaniclastic sedimentation processes in oceanic arc settings. All three arcs are interpreted to have formed in tectonically erosive margin settings, resulting in long-term extension and subsidence. Debris aprons composed of turbidites and debris flow deposits occur in the immediate vicinity of arc volcanoes, forming relatively continuous mass-wasted volcaniclastic records in abundant accommodation space. There is little erosion or reworking of old volcanic materials near the arc volcanic front. Tectonically generated topography in the forearc effectively blocks sediment flow from the volcanic front to the trench; although some canyons deliver sediment to the trench slope, most volcaniclastic sedimentation is limited to the area immediately around volcanic centers. Arc sedimentary sections in erosive plate margins can provide comprehensive records of volcanism and tectonism spanning < 10 My. The chemical evolution of a limited section of an oceanic arc may be best reconstructed from sediments of the debris aprons for intervals up to ~ 20 My but no longer, because subduction erosion causes migration of the forearc basin crust and its sedimentary cover toward the trench, where there is little volcaniclastic sedimentation and where older sediments are dissected and reworked along the trench slope.

Numerical simulation of failure behavior of granular debris flows based on flume model tests.

PubMed

Zhou, Jian; Li, Ye-xun; Jia, Min-cai; Li, Cui-na

2013-01-01

In this study, the failure behaviors of debris flows were studied by flume model tests with artificial rainfall and numerical simulations (PFC(3D)). Model tests revealed that grain sizes distribution had profound effects on failure mode, and the failure in slope of medium sand started with cracks at crest and took the form of retrogressive toe sliding failure. With the increase of fine particles in soil, the failure mode of the slopes changed to fluidized flow. The discrete element method PFC(3D) can overcome the hypothesis of the traditional continuous medium mechanic and consider the simple characteristics of particle. Thus, a numerical simulations model considering liquid-solid coupled method has been developed to simulate the debris flow. Comparing the experimental results, the numerical simulation result indicated that the failure mode of the failure of medium sand slope was retrogressive toe sliding, and the failure of fine sand slope was fluidized sliding. The simulation result is consistent with the model test and theoretical analysis, and grain sizes distribution caused different failure behavior of granular debris flows. This research should be a guide to explore the theory of debris flow and to improve the prevention and reduction of debris flow.

Assessment of Debris Flow Potential Hazardous Zones Using Numerical Models in the Mountain Foothills of Santiago, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Celis, C.; Sepulveda, S. A.; Castruccio, A.; Lara, M.

2017-12-01

Debris and mudflows are some of the main geological hazards in the mountain foothills of Central Chile. The risk of flows triggered in the basins of ravines that drain the Andean frontal range into the capital city, Santiago, increases with time due to accelerated urban expansion. Susceptibility assessments were made by several authors to detect the main active ravines in the area. Macul and San Ramon ravines have a high to medium debris flow susceptibility, whereas Lo Cañas, Apoquindo and Las Vizcachas ravines have a medium to low debris flow susceptibility. This study emphasizes in delimiting the potential hazardous zones using the numerical simulation program RAMMS-Debris Flows with the Voellmy model approach, and the debris-flow model LAHARZ. This is carried out by back-calculating the frictional parameters in the depositional zone with a known event as the debris and mudflows in Macul and San Ramon ravines, on May 3rd, 1993, for the RAMMS approach. In the same scenario, we calibrate the coefficients to match conditions of the mountain foothills of Santiago for the LAHARZ model. We use the information obtained for every main ravine in the study area, mainly for the similarity in slopes and material transported. Simulations were made for the worst-case scenario, caused by the combination of intense rainfall storms, a high 0°C isotherm level and material availability in the basins where the flows are triggered. The results show that the runout distances are well simulated, therefore a debris-flow hazard map could be developed with these models. Correlation issues concerning the run-up, deposit thickness and transversal areas are reported. Hence, the models do not represent entirely the complexity of the phenomenon, but they are a reliable approximation for preliminary hazard maps.

Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) v.3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matney, Mark; Krisko, Paula; Xu, Yu-Lin; Horstman, Matthew

2013-01-01

A model of the manmade orbital debris environment is required by spacecraft designers, mission planners, and others in order to understand and mitigate the effects of the environment on their spacecraft or systems. A manmade environment is dynamic, and can be altered significantly by intent (e.g., the Chinese anti-satellite weapon test of January 2007) or accident (e.g., the collision of Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 spacecraft in February 2009). Engineering models are used to portray the manmade debris environment in Earth orbit. The availability of new sensor and in situ data, the re-analysis of older data, and the development of new analytical and statistical techniques has enabled the construction of this more comprehensive and sophisticated model. The primary output of this model is the flux [#debris/area/time] as a function of debris size and year. ORDEM may be operated in spacecraft mode or telescope mode. In the former case, an analyst defines an orbit for a spacecraft and "flies" the spacecraft through the orbital debris environment. In the latter case, an analyst defines a ground-based sensor (telescope or radar) in terms of latitude, azimuth, and elevation, and the model provides the number of orbital debris traversing the sensor's field of view. An upgraded graphical user interface (GUI) is integrated with the software. This upgraded GUI uses project-oriented organization and provides the user with graphical representations of numerous output data products. These range from the conventional flux as a function of debris size for chosen analysis orbits (or views), for example, to the more complex color-contoured two-dimensional (2D) directional flux diagrams in local spacecraft elevation and azimuth.

Operational Impact of Improved Space Tracking on Collision Avoidance in the Future LEO Space Debris Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sibert, D.; Borgeson, D.; Peterson, G.; Jenkin, A.; Sorge, M.

2010-09-01

Even if global space policy successfully curtails on orbit explosions and ASAT demonstrations, studies indicate that the number of debris objects in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will continue to grow solely from debris on debris collisions and debris generated from new launches. This study examines the threat posed by this growing space debris population over the next 30 years and how improvements in our space tracking capabilities can reduce the number of Collision Avoidance (COLA) maneuvers required keep the risk of operational satellite loss within tolerable limits. Particular focus is given to satellites operated by the Department of Defense (DoD) and Intelligence Community (IC) in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The following debris field and space tracking performance parameters were varied parametrically in the experiment to study the impact on the number of collision avoidance maneuvers required: - Debris Field Density (by year 2009, 2019, 2029, and 2039) - Quality of Track Update (starting 1 sigma error ellipsoid) - Future Propagator Accuracy (error ellipsoid growth rates - Special Perturbations in 3 axes) - Track Update Rate for Debris (stochastic) - Track Update Rate for Payloads (stochastic) Baseline values matching present day tracking performance for quality of track update, propagator accuracy, and track update rate were derived by analyzing updates to the unclassified Satellite Catalog (SatCat). Track update rates varied significantly for active payloads and debris and as such we used different models for the track update rates for military payloads and debris. The analysis was conducted using the System Effectiveness Analysis Simulation (SEAS) an agent based model developed by the United States Air Force Space Command’s Space and Missile Systems Center to evaluate the military utility of space systems. The future debris field was modeled by The Aerospace Corporation using a tool chain which models the growth of the 10cm+ debris field using high fidelity propagation, collision, and breakup models. Our analysis uses Two Line Element (TLE) sets and surface area data generated by this model sampled at the years 2019, 2029, and 2039. Data for the 2009 debris field is taken from the unclassified SatCat. By using Monte Carlo simulation techniques and varying the epoch of the military constellation relative to the debris field we were able to remove the bias of initial conditions. Additional analysis was conducted looking at the military utility impact of temporarily losing the use of Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) assets due to COLA maneuvers during a large classified scenario with stressful satellite tasking. This paper and presentation will focus only on unclassified results quantifying the potential reduction in the risk assumed by satellite flyers, and the potential reduction in Delta-V usage that is possible if we are able to improve our tracking performance in any of these three areas and reduce the positional uncertainty of space objects at the time of closest approach.

NASA Orbital Debris Large-Object Baseline Population in ORDEM 3.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krisco, Paula H.; Vavrin, A. B.; Anz-Meador, P. D.

2013-01-01

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has created and validated high fidelity populations of the debris environment for the latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM 3.0). Though the model includes fluxes of objects 10 um and larger, this paper considers particle fluxes for 1 cm and larger debris objects from low Earth orbit (LEO) through Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO). These are validated by several reliable radar observations through the Space Surveillance Network (SSN), Haystack, and HAX radars. ORDEM 3.0 populations were designed for the purpose of assisting, debris researchers and sensor developers in planning and testing. This environment includes a background derived from the LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris evolutionary model (LEGEND) with a Bayesian rescaling as well as specific events such as the FY-1C anti-satellite test, the Iridium 33/Cosmos 2251 accidental collision, and the Soviet/Russian Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite (RORSAT) sodium-potassium droplet releases. The environment described in this paper is the most realistic orbital debris population larger than 1 cm, to date. We describe derivations of the background population and added specific populations. We present sample validation charts of our 1 cm and larger LEO population against Space Surveillance Network (SSN), Haystack, and HAX radar measurements.

Hypervelocity impact effects on solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rose, M. Frank

1992-01-01

One of the space hazards of concern is the problem of natural matter and space debris impacting spacecraft. In addition to mechanical damage, impact velocities greater than 5 km/sec can produce shock induced ionization effects with resultant surface charging and complex chemical interactions. The upper limit of the velocity distribution for these particles is on the order of 70 km/sec. The second source of particulate matter is due to the presence of man and the machinery needed to place satellites in orbit. This 'man made' component of the space debris consists of waste, rocket exhaust, and debris caused by satellite break-up. Most of the particles are small. However as the size increases, debris purposefully thrown overboard such as garbage and human waste, combined with paint chips, plastic, wire fragments, bolts, etc., become formidable hazards which completely dominate the distribution function for some orbits. These larger fragments can produce penetration and spalling of the thick metallic structures associated with spacecraft. The particles most often encountered are aluminum oxide, associated with fuel residue, and paint chips. These debris types can have a wide range of particle sizes. It has been stated that the design of spacecraft will have to take the debris evolution into account and provide additional suitable armor for key components in the near future. The purpose of this work was to subject samples from solar power arrays, one of the key components of any spacecraft, to a debris flux typical of what might be found in space, and measure the degradation of the power panels after impact.

Relationship of Basal laminar deposit and membranous debris to the clinical presentation of early age-related macular degeneration.

PubMed

Sarks, Shirley; Cherepanoff, Svetlana; Killingsworth, Murray; Sarks, John

2007-03-01

To correlate basal laminar deposit (BLamD) and membranous debris, including basal linear deposit (BLinD), with the evolution of early age-related macular degeneration (AMD). A clinicopathologic collection of 132 eyes with a continuous layer of BLamD was reviewed. The thickness and type of BLamD and the sites of membranous debris deposition were correlated with the clinical progression of the disease. Two types of BLamD, termed early and late, were identified based on light microscopic appearance by using the picro-Mallory stain. The progressive accumulation of late type BLamD correlated well with increasing BLamD thickness, advancing RPE degeneration, poorer vision, increasing age, and clinically evident pigment changes. Membranous debris initially accumulated diffusely as BLinD, most eyes with BLinD and early BLamD remaining funduscopically normal. However, membranous debris also formed focal collections as basal mounds internal to the RPE basement membrane and as soft drusen external to the basement membrane. Eyes in which membranous debris remained confined to basal mounds belonged to older patients with poorer vision, whereas patients with soft drusen were younger and had better vision. The presence of BLinD and early BLamD define threshold AMD, which manifests clinically as a normal fundus. Although late BLamD correlates most closely with clinical pigment abnormalities, it is the quantity and sites of membranous debris accumulation that appear to determine whether the disease develops pigment changes only or follows the alternative pathway of soft drusen formation with its attendant greater risk of choroidal neovascularization (CNV).

Hypervelocity impact effects on solar cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, M. Frank

1992-09-01

One of the space hazards of concern is the problem of natural matter and space debris impacting spacecraft. In addition to mechanical damage, impact velocities greater than 5 km/sec can produce shock induced ionization effects with resultant surface charging and complex chemical interactions. The upper limit of the velocity distribution for these particles is on the order of 70 km/sec. The second source of particulate matter is due to the presence of man and the machinery needed to place satellites in orbit. This 'man made' component of the space debris consists of waste, rocket exhaust, and debris caused by satellite break-up. Most of the particles are small. However as the size increases, debris purposefully thrown overboard such as garbage and human waste, combined with paint chips, plastic, wire fragments, bolts, etc., become formidable hazards which completely dominate the distribution function for some orbits. These larger fragments can produce penetration and spalling of the thick metallic structures associated with spacecraft. The particles most often encountered are aluminum oxide, associated with fuel residue, and paint chips. These debris types can have a wide range of particle sizes. It has been stated that the design of spacecraft will have to take the debris evolution into account and provide additional suitable armor for key components in the near future. The purpose of this work was to subject samples from solar power arrays, one of the key components of any spacecraft, to a debris flux typical of what might be found in space, and measure the degradation of the power panels after impact.

An Analysis of the Orbital Distribution of Solid Rocket Motor Slag

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horstman, Matthew F.; Mulrooney, Mark

2007-01-01

The contribution made by orbiting solid rocket motors (SRMs) to the orbital debris environment is both potentially significant and insufficiently studied. A combination of rocket motor design and the mechanisms of the combustion process can lead to the emission of sufficiently large and numerous by-products to warrant assessment of their contribution to the orbital debris environment. These particles are formed during SRM tail-off, or the termination of burn, by the rapid expansion, dissemination, and solidification of the molten Al2O3 slag pool accumulated during the main burn phase of SRMs utilizing immersion-type nozzles. Though the usage of SRMs is low compared to the usage of liquid fueled motors, the propensity of SRMs to generate particles in the 100 m and larger size regime has caused concern regarding their contributing to the debris environment. Particle sizes as large as 1 cm have been witnessed in ground tests conducted under vacuum conditions and comparable sizes have been estimated via ground-based telescopic and in-situ observations of sub-orbital SRM tail-off events. Using sub-orbital and post recovery observations, a simplistic number-size-velocity distribution of slag from on-orbit SRM firings was postulated. In this paper we have developed more elaborate distributions and emission scenarios and modeled the resultant orbital population and its time evolution by incorporating a historical database of SRM launches, propellant masses, and likely location and time of particulate deposition. From this analysis a more comprehensive understanding has been obtained of the role of SRM ejecta in the orbital debris environment, indicating that SRM slag is a significant component of the current and future population.

Modelling Internal Heterogeneities in Debris-Covered Glaciers: the Potential to Link Morphology and Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stuurman, C. M.; Holt, J.; Levy, J.

2016-12-01

On Earth and Mars, debris-covered glaciers (DCGs) often exhibit arcuate ridges transverse to the flow direction. Additionally, there exists some evidence linking internal structure (which is controlled in part by climate) in DCGs with surface microtopography. A better understanding of the relationship between englacial debris bands, compressional stresses, and debris-covered glacier microtopography will augment understanding of formational environments and mechanisms for terrestrial and martian DCGs. In order to better understand relationships between DCG surface morphology and internal debris bands, we combine field observations with finite-element modeling techniques to relate internal structure of DCGs to their surface morphologies. A geophysical survey including time-domain electromagnetic and ground-penetrating radar techniques of the Galena Creek Rock Glacier, WY was conducted over two field seasons in 2015/2016. Geomorphic analysis by surface observation and photogrammetry, including examination of a cirque-based thermokarst, was used to guide and complement geophysical sounding methods. Very clean ice below a 1 m thick layer of debris was directly observed on the walls of a 40 m diameter thermokarst pond near the accumulation zone. An englacial debris band 0.7 m thick dipping 30o intersected the wall of the pond. Transverse ridges occur at varying ridge-to-ridge wavelengths at different locations on the glacier. The GPR data supports the idea that surface ridges correlate with the intersection of debris layers and the surface. Modelling evidence is consistent with the observation of ridges at debris-layer/surface intersections, with compressional stresses buckling ice up-stream of the debris band.

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krisko, P. H.

2014-01-01

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has released its latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM 3.0. It supersedes ORDEM 2000, now referred to as ORDEM 2.0. This newer model encompasses the Earth satellite and debris flux environment from altitudes of low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Debris sizes of 10 micron through larger than 1 m in non-GEO and 10 cm through larger than 1 m in GEO are available. The inclusive years are 2010 through 2035. The ORDEM model series has always been data driven. ORDEM 3.0 has the benefit of many more hours of data from existing sources and from new sources than past ORDEM versions. The object data range in size from 10 µm to larger than 1 m, and include in situ and remote measurements. The in situ data reveals material characteristics of small particles. Mass densities are grouped in ORDEM 3.0 in terms of 'high-density', represented by 7.9 g/cc, 'medium-density' represented by 2.8 g/cc and 'low-density' represented by 1.4 g/cc. Supporting models have also advanced significantly. The LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND) includes an historical and a future projection component with yearly populations that include launched and maneuvered intact spacecraft and rocket bodies, mission related debris, and explosion and collision event fragments. LEGEND propagates objects with ephemerides and physical characteristics down to 1 mm in size. The full LEGEND yearly population acts as an a priori condition for a Bayesian statistical model. Specific populations are added from sodium potassium droplet releases, recent major accidental and deliberate collisions, and known anomalous debris events. This paper elaborates on the upgrades of this model over previous versions. Sample validation results with remote and in situ measurements are shown, and the consequences of including material density are discussed as it relates to heightened risks to crewed and robotic spacecraft

Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards for the 2013 Powerhouse fire, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staley, Dennis M.; Smoczyk, Gregory M.; Reeves, Ryan R.

2013-01-01

Wildfire dramatically alters the hydrologic response of a watershed such that even modest rainstorms can produce dangerous flash floods and debris flows. Existing empirical models were used to predict the probability and magnitude of debris-flow occurrence in response to a 10-year recurrence interval rainstorm for the 2013 Powerhouse fire near Lancaster, California. Overall, the models predict a relatively low probability for debris-flow occurrence in response to the design storm. However, volumetric predictions suggest that debris flows that occur may entrain a significant volume of material, with 44 of the 73 basins identified as having potential debris-flow volumes between 10,000 and 100,000 cubic meters. These results suggest that even though the likelihood of debris flow is relatively low, the consequences of post-fire debris-flow initiation within the burn area may be significant for downstream populations, infrastructure, and wildlife and water resources. Given these findings, we recommend that residents, emergency managers, and public works departments pay close attention to weather forecasts and National-Weather-Service-issued Debris Flow and Flash Flood Outlooks, Watches, and Warnings and that residents adhere to any evacuation orders.

Deciphering Debris Disk Structure with the Submillimeter Array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacGregor, Meredith Ann

2018-01-01

More than 20% of nearby main sequence stars are surrounded by dusty disks continually replenished via the collisional erosion of planetesimals, larger bodies similar to asteroids and comets in our own Solar System. The material in these ‘debris disks’ is directly linked to the larger bodies such as planets in the system. As a result, the locations, morphologies, and physical properties of dust in these disks provide important probes of the processes of planet formation and subsequent dynamical evolution. Observations at millimeter wavelengths are especially critical to our understanding of these systems, since they are dominated by larger grains that do not travel far from their origin and therefore reliably trace the underlying planetesimal distribution. The Submillimeter Array (SMA) plays a key role in advancing our understanding of debris disks by providing sensitivity at the short baselines required to determine the structure of wide-field disks, such as the HR 8799 debris disk. Many of these wide-field disks are among the closest systems to us, and will serve as cornerstone templates for the interpretation of more distant, less accessible systems.

JSC Orbital Debris Website Description

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Nicholas L.

2006-01-01

Purpose: The website provides information about the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office at JSC, which is the lead NASA center for orbital debris research. It is recognized world-wide for its leadership in addressing orbital debris issues. The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has taken the international lead in conducting measurements of the environment and in developing the technical consensus for adopting mitigation measures to protect users of the orbital environment. Work at the center continues with developing an improved understanding of the orbital debris environment and measures that can be taken to control its growth. Major Contents: Orbital Debris research is divided into the following five broad efforts. Each area of research contains specific information as follows: 1) Modeling - NASA scientists continue to develop and upgrade orbital debris models to describe and characterize the current and future debris environment. Evolutionary and engineering models are described in detail. Downloadable items include a document in PDF format and executable software. 2) Measurements - Measurements of near-Earth orbital debris are accomplished by conducting ground-based and space-based observations of the orbital debris environment. The data from these sources provide validation of the environment models and identify the presence of new sources. Radar, optical and surface examinations are described. External links to related topics are provided. 3) Protection - Orbital debris protection involves conducting hypervelocity impact measurements to assess the risk presented by orbital debris to operating spacecraft and developing new materials and new designs to provide better protection from the environment with less weight penalty. The data from this work provides the link between the environment defined by the models and the risk presented by that environment to operating spacecraft and provides recommendations on design and operations procedures to reduce the risk as required. These data also help in the analysis and interpretation of impact features on returned spacecraft surfaces. 4) Mitigation - Controlling the growth of the orbital debris population is a high priority for NASA, the United States, and the major space-faring nations of the world to preserve near-Earth space for future generations. Mitigation measures can take the form of curtailing or preventing the creation of new debris, designing satellites to withstand impacts by small debris, and implementing operational procedures ranging from utilizing orbital regimes with less debris, adopting specific spacecraft attitudes, and even maneuvering to avoid collisions with debris. Downloadable items include several documents in PDF format and executable software.and 5) Reentry - Because of the increasing number of objects in space, NASA has adopted guidelines and assessment procedures to reduce the number of non-operational spacecraft and spent rocket upper stages orbiting the Earth. One method of postmission disposal is to allow reentry of these spacecraft, either from orbital decay (uncontrolled entry) or with a controlled entry. Orbital decay may be achieved by firing engines to lower the perigee altitude so that atmospheric drag will eventually cause the spacecraft to enter. However, the surviving debris impact footprint cannot be guaranteed to avoid inhabited landmasses. Controlled entry normally occurs by using a larger amount of propellant with a larger propulsion system to drive the spacecraft to enter the atmosphere at a steeper flight path angle. It will then enter at a more precise latitude, longitude, and footprint in a nearly uninhabited impact region, generally located in the ocean.

Sharp Eccentric Rings in Planetless Hydrodynamical Models of Debris Disks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyra, W.; Kuchner, M. J.

2013-01-01

Exoplanets are often associated with disks of dust and debris, analogs of the Kuiper Belt in our solar system. These "debris disks" show a variety of non-trivial structures attributed to planetary perturbations and utilized to constrain the properties of the planets. However, analyses of these systems have largely ignored the fact that, increasingly, debris disks are found to contain small quantities of gas, a component all debris disks should contain at some level. Several debris disks have been measured with a dust-to-gas ratio around unity where the effect of hydrodynamics on the structure of the disk cannot be ignored. Here we report that dust-gas interactions can produce some of the key patterns seen in debris disks that were previously attributed to planets. Through linear and nonlinear modeling of the hydrodynamical problem, we find that a robust clumping instability exists in this configuration, organizing the dust into narrow, eccentric rings, similar to the Fomalhaut debris disk. The hypothesis that these disks might contain planets, though thrilling, is not necessarily required to explain these systems.

Orbital Debris Shape Characterization Project Abstract

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pease, Jessie

2016-01-01

I have been working on a project to further our understanding of orbital debris by helping create a new dataset previously too complex to be implemented in past orbital debris propagation models. I am doing this by creating documentation and 3D examples and illustrations of the shape categories. Earlier models assumed all orbital debris to be spherical aluminum fragments. My project will help expand our knowledge of shape populations to 6 categories: Straight Needle/Rod/Cylinder, Bent Needle/Rod/Cylinder, Flat Plate, Bent Plate, Nugget/Parallelepiped/Spheroid, and Flexible. The last category, Flexible, is still up for discussion and may be modified. These categories will be used to characterize fragments in the DebriSat experiment.

Resistance formulas in hydraulics-based models for routing debris flows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Cheng-lung; Ling, Chi-Hai

1997-01-01

The one-dimensional, cross-section-averaged flow equations formulated for routing debris flows down a narrow valley are identical to those for clear-water flow, except for the differences in the values of the flow parameters, such as the momentum (or energy) correction factor, resistance coefficient, and friction slope. Though these flow parameters for debris flow in channels with cross-sections of arbitrary geometric shape can only be determined empirically, the theoretical values of such parameters for debris flow in wide channels exist. This paper aims to derive the theoretical resistance coefficient and friction slope for debris flow in wide channels using a rheological model for highly-concentrated, rapidly-sheared granular flows, such as the generalized viscoplastic fluid (GVF) model. Formulating such resistance coefficient or friction slope is equivalent to developing a generally applicable resistance formula for routing debris flows. Inclusion of a nonuniform term in the expression of the resistance formula proves useful in removing the customary assumption that the spatially varied resistance at any section is equal to what would take place with the same rate of flow passing the same section under conditions of uniformity. This in effect implies an improvement in the accuracy of unsteady debris-flow computation.

Updated logistic regression equations for the calculation of post-fire debris-flow likelihood in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staley, Dennis M.; Negri, Jacquelyn A.; Kean, Jason W.; Laber, Jayme L.; Tillery, Anne C.; Youberg, Ann M.

2016-06-30

Wildfire can significantly alter the hydrologic response of a watershed to the extent that even modest rainstorms can generate dangerous flash floods and debris flows. To reduce public exposure to hazard, the U.S. Geological Survey produces post-fire debris-flow hazard assessments for select fires in the western United States. We use publicly available geospatial data describing basin morphology, burn severity, soil properties, and rainfall characteristics to estimate the statistical likelihood that debris flows will occur in response to a storm of a given rainfall intensity. Using an empirical database and refined geospatial analysis methods, we defined new equations for the prediction of debris-flow likelihood using logistic regression methods. We showed that the new logistic regression model outperformed previous models used to predict debris-flow likelihood.

Hydrologic system state at debris flow initiation in the Pitztal catchment, Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mostbauer, Karin; Hrachowitz, Markus; Prenner, David; Kaitna, Roland

2017-04-01

Debris flows represent a severe hazard in mountain regions. Though significant effort has been made to forecast such events, the trigger conditions as well as the hydrologic disposition of a watershed at the time of debris flow occurrence are not well understood. To improve our knowledge on the connection between debris flow initiation and the hydrologic system, this study applies a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff model, linking different system state variables such as soil moisture, snowmelt, or runoff with documented debris flow events in the Pitztal watershed, western Austria. The hydrologic modelling was performed on a daily basis between 1953 and 2012. High-intensity rainfall could be identified as the dominant trigger (31 out of 43 debris flows), while triggering exclusively by low-intensity, long-lasting rainfall was only observed in one single case. The remaining events were related to snowmelt; whether all of these events where triggered by rain-on-snow, or whether some of these events were actually triggered by snowmelt only, remains unclear since the occurrence of un- resp. underrecorded rainfall was detected frequently. The usage of a conceptual hydrological model for investigating debris flow initiation constitutes a novel approach in debris flow research and was assessed as very valuable. For future studies, it is recommended to evaluate also sub-daily information. As antecedent snowmelt was found to be much more important to debris flow initiation than antecedent rainfall, it might prove beneficial to include snowmelt in the commonly used rainfall intensity-duration thresholds.

Debris flow susceptibility mapping using a qualitative heuristic method and Flow-R along the Yukon Alaska Highway Corridor, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blais-Stevens, A.; Behnia, P.

2016-02-01

This research activity aimed at reducing risk to infrastructure, such as a proposed pipeline route roughly parallel to the Yukon Alaska Highway Corridor (YAHC), by filling geoscience knowledge gaps in geohazards. Hence, the Geological Survey of Canada compiled an inventory of landslides including debris flow deposits, which were subsequently used to validate two different debris flow susceptibility models. A qualitative heuristic debris flow susceptibility model was produced for the northern region of the YAHC, from Kluane Lake to the Alaska border, by integrating data layers with assigned weights and class ratings. These were slope angle, slope aspect, surficial geology, plan curvature, and proximity to drainage system. Validation of the model was carried out by calculating a success rate curve which revealed a good correlation with the susceptibility model and the debris flow deposit inventory compiled from air photos, high-resolution satellite imagery, and field verification. In addition, the quantitative Flow-R method was tested in order to define the potential source and debris flow susceptibility for the southern region of Kluane Lake, an area where documented debris flow events have blocked the highway in the past (e.g. 1988). Trial and error calculations were required for this method because there was not detailed information on the debris flows for the YAHC to allow us to define threshold values for some parameters when calculating source areas, spreading, and runout distance. Nevertheless, correlation with known documented events helped define these parameters and produce a map that captures most of the known events and displays debris flow susceptibility in other, usually smaller, steep channels that had not been previously documented.

Debris flow susceptibility mapping using a qualitative heuristic method and Flow-R along the Yukon Alaska Highway Corridor, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blais-Stevens, A.; Behnia, P.

2015-05-01

This research activity aimed at reducing risk to infrastructure, such as a proposed pipeline route roughly parallel to the Yukon Alaska Highway Corridor (YAHC) by filling geoscience knowledge gaps in geohazards. Hence, the Geological Survey of Canada compiled an inventory of landslides including debris flow deposits, which were subsequently used to validate two different debris flow susceptibility models. A qualitative heuristic debris flow susceptibility model was produced for the northern region of the YAHC, from Kluane Lake to the Alaska border, by integrating data layers with assigned weights and class ratings. These were slope angle, slope aspect (derived from a 5 m × 5 m DEM), surficial geology, permafrost distribution, and proximity to drainage system. Validation of the model was carried out by calculating a success rate curve which revealed a good correlation with the susceptibility model and the debris flow deposit inventory compiled from air photos, high resolution satellite imagery, and field verification. In addition, the quantitative Flow-R method was tested in order to define the potential source and debris flow susceptibility for the southern region of Kluane Lake, an area where documented debris flow events have blocked the highway in the past (e.g., 1988). Trial and error calculations were required for this method because there was not detailed information on the debris flows for the YAHC to allow us to define threshold values for some parameters when calculating source areas, spreading, and runout distance. Nevertheless, correlation with known documented events helped define these parameters and produce a map that captures most of the known events and displays debris flow susceptibility in other, usually smaller, steep channels that had not been previously documented.

GEO Collisional Risk Assessment Based on Analysis of NASA-WISE Data and Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, S.; Murray-Krezan, J.; Dao, P.; Surka, D.

From December 2009 thru 2011 the NASA Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) gathered radiometrically exquisite measurements of debris in near Earth orbits, substantially augmenting the current catalog of known debris. The WISE GEO-belt debris population adds approximately 2,000 previously uncataloged objects. This paper describes characterization of the WISE GEO-belt orbital debris population in terms of location, epoch, and size. The WISE GEO-belt debris population characteristics are compared with the publically available U.S. catalog and previous descriptions of the GEO-belt debris population. We found that our results differ from previously published debris distributions, suggesting the need for updates to collision probability models and a better measurement-based understanding of the debris population. Previous studies of collisional rate in GEO invoke the presence of a large number of debris in the regime of sizes too small to track, i.e. not in the catalog, but large enough to cause significant damage and fragmentation in a collision. A common approach is to estimate that population of small debris by assuming that it is dominated by fragments and therefore should follow trends observed in fragmentation events or laboratory fragmentation tests. In other words, the population of debris can be extrapolated from trackable sizes to small sizes using an empirically determined trend of population as a function of size. We use new information suggested by the analysis of WISE IR measurements to propose an updated relationship. Our trend is an improvement because we expect that an IR emissive signature is a more reliable indicator of physical size. Based on the revised relationship, we re-estimate the total collisional rate in the GEO belt with the inclusion of projected uncatalogued debris and applying a conjunction assessment technique. Through modeling, we evaluate the hot spots near the geopotential wells and the effects of fragmentation in the GEO graveyard to the collision with GEO objects.

VISCOPLASTIC FLUID MODEL FOR DEBRIS FLOW ROUTING.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Cheng-lung

1986-01-01

This paper describes how a generalized viscoplastic fluid model, which was developed based on non-Newtonian fluid mechanics, can be successfully applied to routing a debris flow down a channel. The one-dimensional dynamic equations developed for unsteady clear-water flow can be used for debris flow routing if the flow parameters, such as the momentum (or energy) correction factor and the resistance coefficient, can be accurately evaluated. The writer's generalized viscoplastic fluid model can be used to express such flow parameters in terms of the rheological parameters for debris flow in wide channels. A preliminary analysis of the theoretical solutions reveals the importance of the flow behavior index and the so-called modified Froude number for uniformly progressive flow in snout profile modeling.

A Simple Model for the Orbital Debris Environment in GEO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anilkumar, A. K.; Ananthasayanam, M. R.; Subba Rao, P. V.

The increase of space debris and its threat to commercial space activities in the Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) predictably cause concern regarding the environment over the long term. A variety of studies regarding space debris such as detection, modeling, protection and mitigation measures, is being pursued for the past couple of decades. Due to the absence of atmospheric drag to remove debris in GEO and the increasing number of utility satellites therein, the number of objects in GEO will continue to increase. The characterization of the GEO environment is critical for risk assessment and protection of future satellites and also to incorporate effective debris mitigation measures in the design and operations. The debris measurements in GEO have been limited to objects with size more than 60 cm. This paper provides an engineering model of the GEO environment by utilizing the philosophy and approach as laid out for the SIMPLE model proposed recently for LEO by the authors. The present study analyses the statistical characteristics of the GEO catalogued objects in order to arrive at a model for the GEO space debris environment. It is noted that the catalogued objects, as of now of around 800, by USSPACECOM across the years 1998 to 2004 have the same semi major axis mode (highest number density) around 35750 km above the earth. After removing the objects in the small bin around the mode, (35700, 35800) km containing around 40 percent (a value that is nearly constant across the years) of the objects, the number density of the other objects follow a single Laplace distribution with two parameters, namely location and scale. Across the years the location parameter of the above distribution does not significantly vary but the scale parameter shows a definite trend. These observations are successfully utilized in proposing a simple model for the GEO debris environment. References Ananthasayanam, M. R., Anil Kumar, A. K., and Subba Rao, P. V., ``A New Stochastic Impressionistic Low Earth (SIMPLE) Model of the Space Debris Scenario'', Conference Abstract COSPAR 02-A-01772, 2002. Ananthasayanam, M. R., Anilkumar, A. K., Subba Rao, P. V., and V. Adimurthy, ``Characterization of Eccentricity and Ballistic Coefficients of Space Debris in Altitude and Perigee Bins'', IAC-03-IAA5.p.04, Presented at the IAF Conference, Bremen, October 2003 and also to be published in the Proceedings of IAF Conference, Science and Technology Series, 2003.

Rocks of the early lunar crust

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

James, O. B.

1980-01-01

Data are summarized which suggest a model for the early evolution of the lunar crust. According to the model, during the final stages of accretion, the outer part of the moon melted to form a magma ocean approximately 300 km deep. This ocean fractionated to form mafic and ultramafic cumulates at depth and an overlying anorthositic crust made up of ferroan anorthosites. Subsequent partial melting in the primitive mantle underlying the crystallized magma ocean produced melts which segregated, moved upward, intruded the primordial crust, and crystallized to form layered plutons consisting of Mg-rich plutonic rocks. Intense impact bombardment at the lunar surface mixed and melted the rocks of the two suites to form a thick layer of granulated debris, granulitic breccias, and impact-melt rocks.

Using Logistic Regression To Predict the Probability of Debris Flows Occurring in Areas Recently Burned By Wildland Fires

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rupert, Michael G.; Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.

2003-01-01

Logistic regression was used to predict the probability of debris flows occurring in areas recently burned by wildland fires. Multiple logistic regression is conceptually similar to multiple linear regression because statistical relations between one dependent variable and several independent variables are evaluated. In logistic regression, however, the dependent variable is transformed to a binary variable (debris flow did or did not occur), and the actual probability of the debris flow occurring is statistically modeled. Data from 399 basins located within 15 wildland fires that burned during 2000-2002 in Colorado, Idaho, Montana, and New Mexico were evaluated. More than 35 independent variables describing the burn severity, geology, land surface gradient, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated. The models were developed as follows: (1) Basins that did and did not produce debris flows were delineated from National Elevation Data using a Geographic Information System (GIS). (2) Data describing the burn severity, geology, land surface gradient, rainfall, and soil properties were determined for each basin. These data were then downloaded to a statistics software package for analysis using logistic regression. (3) Relations between the occurrence/non-occurrence of debris flows and burn severity, geology, land surface gradient, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated and several preliminary multivariate logistic regression models were constructed. All possible combinations of independent variables were evaluated to determine which combination produced the most effective model. The multivariate model that best predicted the occurrence of debris flows was selected. (4) The multivariate logistic regression model was entered into a GIS, and a map showing the probability of debris flows was constructed. The most effective model incorporates the percentage of each basin with slope greater than 30 percent, percentage of land burned at medium and high burn severity in each basin, particle size sorting, average storm intensity (millimeters per hour), soil organic matter content, soil permeability, and soil drainage. The results of this study demonstrate that logistic regression is a valuable tool for predicting the probability of debris flows occurring in recently-burned landscapes.

Orbital debris research at NASA Johnson Space Center, 1986-1988

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reynolds, Robert C.; Potter, Andrew E., Jr.

1989-01-01

Research on orbital debris has intensified in recent years as the number of debris objects in orbit has grown. The population of small debris has now reached the level that orbital debris has become an important design factor for the Space Station. The most active center of research in this field has been the NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center. Work is being done on the measurement of orbital debris, development of models of the debris population, and development of improved shielding against hypervelocity impacts. Significant advances have been made in these areas. The purpose of this document is to summarize these results and provide references for further study.

Numerical simulation of granular flows : comparison with experimental results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pirulli, M.; Mangeney-Castelnau, A.; Lajeunesse, E.; Vilotte, J.-P.; Bouchut, F.; Bristeau, M. O.; Perthame, B.

2003-04-01

Granular avalanches such as rock or debris flows regularly cause large amounts of human and material damages. Numerical simulation of granular avalanches should provide a useful tool for investigating, within realistic geological contexts, the dynamics of these flows and of their arrest phase and for improving the risk assessment of such natural hazards. Validation of debris avalanche numerical model on granular experiments over inclined plane is performed here. The comparison is performed by simulating granular flow of glass beads from a reservoir through a gate down an inclined plane. This unsteady situation evolves toward the steady state observed in the laboratory. Furthermore simulation exactly reproduces the arrest phase obtained by suddenly closing the gate of the reservoir once a thick flow has developped. The spreading of a granular mass released from rest at the top of a rough inclined plane is also investigated. The evolution of the avalanche shape, the velocity and the characteristics of the arrest phase are compared with experimental results and analysis of the involved forces are studied for various flow laws.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jang-Condell, Hannah; Chen, Christine H.; Mittal, Tushar

We analyze spectra obtained with the Spitzer Infrared Spectrograph (IRS) of 110 B-, A-, F-, and G-type stars with optically thin infrared excess in the Scorpius–Centaurus OB association. The ages of these stars range from 11 to 17 Myr. We fit the infrared excesses observed in these sources by Spitzer IRS and the Multiband Imaging Photometer for Spitzer (MIPS) to simple dust models according to Mie theory. We find that nearly all of the objects in our study can be fit by one or two belts of dust. Dust around lower mass stars appears to be closer in than aroundmore » higher mass stars, particularly for the warm dust component in the two-belt systems, suggesting a mass-dependent evolution of debris disks around young stars. For those objects with stellar companions, all dust distances are consistent with truncation of the debris disk by the binary companion. The gaps between several of the two-belt systems can place limits on the planets that might lie between the belts, potentially constraining the mass and locations of planets that may be forming around these stars.« less

Evolution of pH, organic matter and (226)radium/calcium partitioning in U-mining debris following revegetation with pine trees.

PubMed

Thiry, Y; Van Hees, M

2008-04-01

Natural attenuation processes resulting from the afforestation of some U-waste rock piles have the potential to limit the linkage of radioelements and other trace pollutants, thereby minimizing exposure risks. We determined the evolution of pH and organic matter and compared the (226)Ra and Ca extractability in pyrite-containing mining debris which was revegetated 35 years ago with Scots pine. Oxidation of sulphidic minerals remaining in the substrate appeared to dominate over acidification processes due to vegetation inputs and litter decomposition. The accumulation of organic matter in forest floor had a negligible effect on the (226)Ra upward recycling compared to the migration losses observed mainly from decarbonatation of the surface mining debris. (226)Ra was overall less soluble than Ca in the soil profile but NH(4)Ac-pH 5 had the capacity to extract a (226)Ra fraction of 31.1-41.5%, i.e. at least twice as much as for Ca. In deeper layers, a majority of both Ca and (226)Ra were extractable from the same non-specific adsorption pool, which mainly involved carbonate. In the upper acidified layer, the incorporation of organic matter had no effect on (226)Ra extractability. A further specific adsorption pool for (226)Ra was attributed to the formation of sparingly soluble Fe-Al oxyhydroxides. However, that specific (226)Ra-bearing phase was readily dissolved in NH(4)Ac-pH 5, indicating a relatively reversibility of the precipitation reaction of (226)Ra with amorphous oxide. Trees are effective at reducing hydrological release of many pollutants but in the mining debris studied, four decades of pine growth did not significantly promote (226)Ra remediation in the soil.

Dynamical Evolution of the Debris Disk after a Satellite Catastrophic Disruption around Saturn

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hyodo, Ryuki; Charnoz, Sébastien

The hypothesis of the recent origin of Saturn’s rings and its midsized moons is actively debated. It was suggested that a proto-Rhea and a proto-Dione might have collided recently, giving birth to the modern system of midsized moons. It has also been suggested that the rapid viscous spreading of the debris may have implanted mass inside Saturn’s Roche limit, giving birth to its modern ring system. However, this scenario has only been investigated in a very simplified way for the moment. This paper investigates it in detail to assess its plausibility by using N -body simulations and analytical arguments. When the debris disk is dominatedmore » by its largest remnant, N -body simulations show that the system quickly reaccretes into a single satellite without significant spreading. On the other hand, if the disk is composed of small particles, analytical arguments suggest that the disk experiences dynamical evolutions in three steps. The disk starts significantly excited after the impact and collisional damping dominates over the viscous spreading. After the system flattens, the system can become gravitationally unstable when particles are smaller than ∼100 m. However, the particles grow faster than spreading. Then, the system becomes gravitationally stable again and accretion continues at a slower pace, but spreading is inhibited. Therefore, the debris is expected to reaccrete into several large bodies. In conclusion, our results show that such a scenario may not form today’s ring system. In contrast, our results suggest that today’s midsized moons are likely reaccreted from such a catastrophic event.« less

Tidal disruptions by supermassive black holes - Hydrodynamic evolution of stars on a Schwarzschild background

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laguna, Pablo; Miller, Warner A.; Zurek, Wojciech H.; Davies, Melvyn B.

1993-01-01

We present a three-dimensional numerical study of tidal disruption of a main-sequence star by a supermassive black hole. The simulations include general relativistic effects which are important in this regime. We analyze stars in a marginally bound orbit around the black hole with pericentric separation of a few Schwarzschild radii. We show that during a close passage, as a result of relativistic effects analogous to the perihelion shift, the trajectories of the debris of the star fan out into a crescent-like shape centered on the black hole. We also discuss the increase of the central density of the star as it approaches pericentric distance, the fraction of the debris accreted by the hole, its accretion rate, the distribution of debris orbits bound to the hole, and the velocity of unbound ejected material. We compare these results with the disruption of the star by a Newtonian point mass.

How multiagency partnerships can successfully address large-scale pollution problems: a Hawaii case study.

PubMed

Donohue, Mary J

2003-06-01

Oceanic circulation patterns deposit significant amounts of marine pollution, including derelict fishing gear from North Pacific Ocean fisheries, in the Hawaiian Archipelago [Mar. Pollut. Bull. 42(12) (2001) 1301]. Management responsibility for these islands and their associated natural resources is shared by several government authorities. Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and private industry also have interests in the archipelago. Since the marine debris problem in this region is too large for any single agency to manage, a multiagency marine debris working group (group) was established in 1998 to improve marine debris mitigation in Hawaii. To date, 16 federal, state, and local agencies, working with industry and NGOs, have removed 195 tons of derelict fishing gear from the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. This review details the evolution of the partnership, notes its challenges and rewards, and advocates its continued use as an effective resource management tool.

Empirical models for predicting volumes of sediment deposited by debris flows and sediment-laden floods in the transverse ranges of southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gartner, Joseph E.; Cannon, Susan H.; Santi, Paul M

2014-01-01

Debris flows and sediment-laden floods in the Transverse Ranges of southern California pose severe hazards to nearby communities and infrastructure. Frequent wildfires denude hillslopes and increase the likelihood of these hazardous events. Debris-retention basins protect communities and infrastructure from the impacts of debris flows and sediment-laden floods and also provide critical data for volumes of sediment deposited at watershed outlets. In this study, we supplement existing data for the volumes of sediment deposited at watershed outlets with newly acquired data to develop new empirical models for predicting volumes of sediment produced by watersheds located in the Transverse Ranges of southern California. The sediment volume data represent a broad sample of conditions found in Ventura, Los Angeles and San Bernardino Counties, California. The measured volumes of sediment, watershed morphology, distributions of burn severity within each watershed, the time since the most recent fire, triggering storm rainfall conditions, and engineering soil properties were analyzed using multiple linear regressions to develop two models. A “long-term model” was developed for predicting volumes of sediment deposited by both debris flows and floods at various times since the most recent fire from a database of volumes of sediment deposited by a combination of debris flows and sediment-laden floods with no time limit since the most recent fire (n = 344). A subset of this database was used to develop an “emergency assessment model” for predicting volumes of sediment deposited by debris flows within two years of a fire (n = 92). Prior to developing the models, 32 volumes of sediment, and related parameters for watershed morphology, burn severity and rainfall conditions were retained to independently validate the long-term model. Ten of these volumes of sediment were deposited by debris flows within two years of a fire and were used to validate the emergency assessment model. The models were validated by comparing predicted and measured volumes of sediment. These validations were also performed for previously developed models and identify that the models developed here best predict volumes of sediment for burned watersheds in comparison to previously developed models.

Modelling accumulation of marine plastics in the coastal zone; what are the dominant physical processes?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Critchell, Kay; Lambrechts, Jonathan

2016-03-01

Anthropogenic marine debris, mainly of plastic origin, is accumulating in estuarine and coastal environments around the world causing damage to fauna, flora and habitats. Plastics also have the potential to accumulate in the food web, as well as causing economic losses to tourism and sea-going industries. If we are to manage this increasing threat, we must first understand where debris is accumulating and why these locations are different to others that do not accumulate large amounts of marine debris. This paper demonstrates an advection-diffusion model that includes beaching, settling, resuspension/re-floating, degradation and topographic effects on the wind in nearshore waters to quantify the relative importance of these physical processes governing plastic debris accumulation. The aim of this paper is to prioritise research that will improve modelling outputs in the future. We have found that the physical characteristic of the source location has by far the largest effect on the fate of the debris. The diffusivity, used to parameterise the sub-grid scale movements, and the relationship between debris resuspension/re-floating from beaches and the wind shadow created by high islands also has a dramatic impact on the modelling results. The rate of degradation of macroplastics into microplastics also have a large influence in the result of the modelling. The other processes presented (settling, wind drift velocity) also help determine the fate of debris, but to a lesser degree. These findings may help prioritise research on physical processes that affect plastic accumulation, leading to more accurate modelling, and subsequently management in the future.

Three occurred debris flows in North-Eastern Italian Alps: documentation and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boreggio, Mauro; Gregoretti, Carlo; Degetto, Massimo; Bernard, Martino

2015-04-01

Three occurred events of debris flows are documented and modeled by back-analysis. The three debris flows events are those occurred at Rio Lazer on the 4th of November 1966, at Fiames on the 5th of July 2006 and at Rovina di Cancia on the 18th of July 2009. All the three sites are located in the North-Eastern Italian Alps. In all the events, runoff entrained sediments present on natural channels and formed a solid-liquid wave that routed downstream. The first event concerns the routing of debris flow on an inhabited fan. Map of deposition pattern of sediments are built by using post-events photos through stereoscopy techniques. The second event concerns the routing of debris flow along the main channel descending from Pomagagnon Fork. Due to the obstruction of the cross-section debris flow deviated from the original path on the left side and routed downstream by cutting a new channel on the fan. It dispersed in multiple paths when met the wooden area. Map of erosion and deposition depths are built after using a combination of Lidar and GPS data. The third event concerns the routing of debris flow in the Rovina di Cancia channel that filled the reservoir built at the end of the channel and locally overtopped the retaining wall on the left side. A wave of mud and debris inundated the area downstream the overtopping point. Map of erosion and deposition depths are obtained by subtracting two GPS surveys, pre and post event. All the three occurred debris flows are simulated by modeling runoff that entrained debris flow for determining the solid-liquid hydrograph downstream the triggering areas. The routing of the solid-liquid hydrograph was simulated by a bi-phase cell model based on the kinematic approach. The comparison between simulated and measured erosion and deposition depths is satisfactory. The same parameters for computing erosion and deposition were used for the three occurred events.

Coupled prediction of flash flood response and debris flow occurrence: Application on an alpine extreme flood event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Destro, Elisa; Amponsah, William; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Marchi, Lorenzo; Marra, Francesco; Zoccatelli, Davide; Borga, Marco

2018-03-01

The concurrence of flash floods and debris flows is of particular concern, because it may amplify the hazard corresponding to the individual generative processes. This paper presents a coupled modelling framework for the predictions of flash flood response and of the occurrence of debris flows initiated by channel bed mobilization. The framework combines a spatially distributed flash flood response model and a debris flow initiation model to define a threshold value for the peak flow which permits identification of channelized debris flow initiation. The threshold is defined over the channel network as a function of the upslope area and of the local channel bed slope, and it is based on assumptions concerning the properties of the channel bed material and of the morphology of the channel network. The model is validated using data from an extreme rainstorm that impacted the 140 km2 Vizze basin in the Eastern Italian Alps on August 4-5, 2012. The results show that the proposed methodology has improved skill in identifying the catchments where debris-flows are triggered, compared to the use of simpler thresholds based on rainfall properties.

Determining Distributed Ablation over Dirty Ice Areas of Debris-covered Glaciers Using a UAV-SfM Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodget, A.; Fyffe, C. L.; Kirkbride, M. P.; Deline, P.; Westoby, M.; Brock, B. W.

2017-12-01

Dirty ice areas (where debris cover is discontinuous) are often found on debris-covered glaciers above the limit of continuous debris and are important because they are areas of high melt and have been recognized as the locus of the identified upglacier increase in debris cover. The modelling of glacial ablation in areas of dirty ice is in its infancy and is currently restricted to theoretical studies. Glacial ablation is traditionally determined at point locations using stakes drilled into the ice. However, in areas of dirty ice, ablation is highly spatially variable, since debris a few centimetres thick is near the threshold between enhancing and reducing ablation. As a result, it is very difficult to ascertain if point ablation measurements are representative of ablation of the area surrounding the stake - making these measurements unsuitable for the validation of models of dirty ice ablation. This paper aims to quantify distributed ablation and its relationship to essential dirty ice characteristics with a view to informing the construction of dirty ice melt models. A novel approach to determine distributed ablation is presented which uses repeat aerial imagery acquired from a UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle), processed using SfM (Structure from Motion) techniques, on an area of dirty ice on Miage Glacier, Italian Alps. A spatially continuous ablation map is presented, along with a correlation to the local debris characteristics. Furthermore, methods are developed which link ground truth data on the percentage debris cover, albedo and clast depth to the UAV imagery, allowing these characteristics to be determined for the entire study area, and used as model inputs. For example, debris thickness is determined through a field relationship with clast size, which is then correlated with image texture and point cloud roughness metrics derived from the UAV imagery. Finally, we evaluate the potential of our novel approach to lead to improved modelling of dirty ice ablation.

Design of Installing Check Dam Using RAMMS Model in Seorak National Park of South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jun, K.; Tak, W.; JUN, B. H.; Lee, H. J.; KIM, S. D.

2016-12-01

Design of Installing Check Dam Using RAMMS Model in Seorak National Park of South Korea Kye-Won Jun*, Won-Jun Tak*, Byong-Hee Jun**, Ho-Jin Lee***, Soung-Doug Kim* *Graduate School of Disaster Prevention, Kangwon National University, 346 Joogang-ro, Samcheok-si, Gangwon-do, Korea **School of Fire and Disaster Protection, Kangwon National University, 346 Joogang-ro, Samcheok-si, Gangwon-do, Korea ***School of Civil Engineering, Chungbuk National University, 1 Chungdae-ro, Seowon-gu, Cheongju, Korea Abstract As more than 64% of the land in South Korea is mountainous area, so many regions in South Korea are exposed to the danger of landslide and debris flow. So it is important to understand the behavior of debris flow in mountainous terrains, the various methods and models are being presented and developed based on the mathematical concept. The purpose of this study is to investigate the regions that experienced the debris flow due to typhoon called Ewiniar and to perform numerical modeling to design and layout of the Check dam for reducing the damage by the debris flow. For the performance of numerical modeling, on-site measurement of the research area was conducted including: topographic investigation, research on bridges in the downstream, and precision LiDAR 3D scanning for composed basic data of numerical modeling. The numerical simulation of this study was performed using RAMMS (Rapid Mass Movements Simulation) model for the analysis of the debris flow. This model applied to the conditions of the Check dam which was installed in the upstream, midstream, and downstream. Considering the reduction effect of debris flow, the expansion of debris flow, and the influence on the bridges in the downstream, proper location of the Check dam was designated. The result of present numerical model showed that when the Check dam was installed in the downstream section, 50 m above the bridge, the reduction effect of the debris flow was higher compared to when the Check dam were installed in other sections. Key words: Debris flow, LiDAR, Check dam, RAMMSAcknowledgementsThis research was supported by a grant [MPSS-NH-2014-74] through the Disaster and Safety Management Institute funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security of Korean government

Development of Tsunami Numerical Model Considering the Disaster Debris such as Cars, Ships and Collapsed Buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozono, Y.; Takahashi, T.; Sakuraba, M.; Nojima, K.

2016-12-01

A lot of debris by tsunami, such as cars, ships and collapsed buildings were generated in the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. It is useful for rescue and recovery after tsunami disaster to predict the amount and final position of disaster debris. The transport form of disaster debris varies as drifting, rolling and sliding. These transport forms need to be considered comprehensively in tsunami simulation. In this study, we focused on the following three points. Firstly, the numerical model considering various transport forms of disaster debris was developed. The proposed numerical model was compared with the hydraulic experiment by Okubo et al. (2004) in order to verify transport on the bottom surface such as rolling and sliding. Secondly, a numerical experiment considering transporting on the bottom surface and drifting was studied. Finally, the numerical model was applied for Kesennuma city where serious damage occurred by the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. In this model, the influence of disaster debris was considered as tsunami flow energy loss. The hydraulic experiments conducted in a water tank which was 10 m long by 30 cm wide. The gate confined water in a storage tank, and acted as a wave generator. A slope was set at downstream section. The initial position of a block (width: 3.2 cm, density: 1.55 g/cm3) assuming the disaster debris was placed in front of the slope. The proposed numerical model simulated well the maximum transport distance and the final stop position of the block. In the second numerical experiment, the conditions were the same as the hydraulic experiment, except for the density of the block. The density was set to various values (from 0.30 to 4.20 g/cm3). This model was able to estimate various transport forms including drifting and sliding. In the numerical simulation of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami, the condition of buildings was modeled as follows: (i)the resistance on the bottom using Manning roughness coefficient (conventional method), and (ii)structure of buildings with collapsing and washing-away due to tsunami wave pressure. In this calculation, disaster debris of collapsed buildings, cars and ships was considered. As a result, the proposed model showed that it is necessary to take the disaster debris into account in order to predict tsunami inundation accurately.

An Overview of the Orbital Debris and Meteoroid Environments, Their Effects on Spacecraft, and What Can We Do About It?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matney, Mark

2017-01-01

Because of the high speeds needed for orbital space flight, hypervelocity impacts with objects in space are a constant risk to spacecraft. This includes natural debris - meteoroids - and the debris remnants of our own activities in space. A number of space surveillance assets are used to measure and track spacecraft, used upper stages, and breakup debris. However, much of the debris and meteoroids encountered by spacecraft in Earth orbit is not easily measured or tracked. For every man-made object that we can track, there are hundreds of small debris that are too small to be tracked but still large enough to damage spacecraft. In addition, even if we knew today's environment with perfect knowledge, the debris environment is dynamic and would change tomorrow. This means that much of the risk from both meteoroids and anthropogenic debris is statistical in nature. NASA uses and maintains a number of instruments to statistically monitor the meteoroid and orbital debris environments, and uses this information to compute statistical models for use by spacecraft designers and operators. Because orbital debris is a result of human activities, NASA has led the US government in formulating national and international strategies that space users can employ to limit the growth of debris in the future. This talk will summarize the history and current state of meteoroid and space debris measurements and modeling, how the environment influences spacecraft design and operations, how we are designing the experiments of tomorrow to improve our knowledge, and how we are working internationally to preserve the space environment for the future.

Risk analysis reveals global hotspots for marine debris ingestion by sea turtles.

PubMed

Schuyler, Qamar A; Wilcox, Chris; Townsend, Kathy A; Wedemeyer-Strombel, Kathryn R; Balazs, George; van Sebille, Erik; Hardesty, Britta Denise

2016-02-01

Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with sea turtle habitat maps to predict exposure levels to plastic pollution. Empirical data from necropsies of deceased animals were then utilised to assess the consequence of exposure to plastics. We modelled the risk (probability of debris ingestion) by incorporating exposure to debris and consequence of exposure, and included life history stage, species of sea turtle and date of stranding observation as possible additional explanatory factors. Life history stage is the best predictor of debris ingestion, but the best-fit model also incorporates encounter rates within a limited distance from stranding location, marine debris predictions specific to the date of the stranding study and turtle species. There is no difference in ingestion rates between stranded turtles vs. those caught as bycatch from fishing activity, suggesting that stranded animals are not a biased representation of debris ingestion rates in the background population. Oceanic life-stage sea turtles are at the highest risk of debris ingestion, and olive ridley turtles are the most at-risk species. The regions of highest risk to global sea turtle populations are off of the east coasts of the USA, Australia and South Africa; the east Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia. Model results can be used to predict the number of sea turtles globally at risk of debris ingestion. Based on currently available data, initial calculations indicate that up to 52% of sea turtles may have ingested debris. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Runoff-generated debris flows: observations and modeling of surge initiation, magnitude, and frequency

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kean, Jason W.; McCoy, Scott W.; Tucker, Gregory E.; Staley, Dennis M.; Coe, Jeffrey A.

2013-01-01

Runoff during intense rainstorms plays a major role in generating debris flows in many alpine areas and burned steeplands. Yet compared to debris flow initiation from shallow landslides, the mechanics by which runoff generates a debris flow are less understood. To better understand debris flow initiation by surface water runoff, we monitored flow stage and rainfall associated with debris flows in the headwaters of two small catchments: a bedrock-dominated alpine basin in central Colorado (0.06 km2) and a recently burned area in southern California (0.01 km2). We also obtained video footage of debris flow initiation and flow dynamics from three cameras at the Colorado site. Stage observations at both sites display distinct patterns in debris flow surge characteristics relative to rainfall intensity (I). We observe small, quasiperiodic surges at low I; large, quasiperiodic surges at intermediate I; and a single large surge followed by small-amplitude fluctuations about a more steady high flow at high I. Video observations of surge formation lead us to the hypothesis that these flow patterns are controlled by upstream variations in channel slope, in which low-gradient sections act as “sediment capacitors,” temporarily storing incoming bed load transported by water flow and periodically releasing the accumulated sediment as a debris flow surge. To explore this hypothesis, we develop a simple one-dimensional morphodynamic model of a sediment capacitor that consists of a system of coupled equations for water flow, bed load transport, slope stability, and mass flow. This model reproduces the essential patterns in surge magnitude and frequency with rainfall intensity observed at the two field sites and provides a new framework for predicting the runoff threshold for debris flow initiation in a burned or alpine setting.

Risk Analysis Reveals Global Hotspots for Marine Debris Ingestion by Sea Turtles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuyler, Q. A.; Wilcox, C.; Townsend, K.; Wedemeyer-Strombel, K.; Balazs, G.; van Sebille, E.; Hardesty, B. D.

2016-02-01

Plastic marine debris pollution is rapidly becoming one of the critical environmental concerns facing wildlife in the 21st century. Here we present a risk analysis for plastic ingestion by sea turtles on a global scale. We combined global marine plastic distributions based on ocean drifter data with sea turtle habitat maps to predict exposure levels to plastic pollution. Empirical data from necropsies of deceased animals were then utilised to assess the consequence of exposure to plastics. We modelled the risk (probability of debris ingestion) by incorporating exposure to debris and consequence of exposure, and included life history stage, species of sea turtle, and date of stranding observation as possible additional explanatory factors. Life history stage is the best predictor of debris ingestion, but the best-fit model also incorporates encounter rates within a limited distance from stranding location, marine debris predictions specific to the date of the stranding study, and turtle species. There was no difference in ingestion rates between stranded turtles vs. those caught as bycatch from fishing activity, suggesting that stranded animals are not a biased representation of debris ingestion rates in the background population. Oceanic life-stage sea turtles are at the highest risk of debris ingestion, and olive ridley turtles are the most at-risk species. The regions of highest risk to global sea turtle populations are off of the east coasts of the USA, Australia, and South Africa; the east Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia. Model results can be used to predict the number of sea turtles globally at risk of debris ingestion. Based on currently available data, initial calculations indicate that up to 52% of sea turtles may have ingested debris.

Hyperaccretion during Tidal Disruption Events: Weakly Bound Debris Envelopes and Jets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coughlin, Eric R.; Begelman, Mitchell C.

2014-02-01

After the destruction of the star during a tidal disruption event (TDE), the cataclysmic encounter between a star and the supermassive black hole (SMBH) of a galaxy, approximately half of the original stellar debris falls back onto the hole at a rate that can initially exceed the Eddington limit by orders of magnitude. We argue that the angular momentum of this matter is too low to allow it to attain a disk-like configuration with accretion proceeding at a mildly super-Eddington rate, the excess energy being carried away by a combination of radiative losses and radially distributed winds. Instead, we propose that the infalling gas traps accretion energy until it inflates into a weakly bound, quasi-spherical structure with gas extending nearly to the poles. We study the structure and evolution of such "zero-Bernoulli accretion" flows as a model for the super-Eddington phase of TDEs. We argue that such flows cannot stop extremely super-Eddington accretion from occurring, and that once the envelope is maximally inflated, any excess accretion energy escapes through the poles in the form of powerful jets. We compare the predictions of our model to Swift J1644+57, the putative super-Eddington TDE, and show that it can qualitatively reproduce some of its observed features. Similar models, including self-gravity, could be applicable to gamma-ray bursts from collapsars and the growth of SMBH seeds inside quasi-stars.

Space debris characterization in support of a satellite breakup model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fortson, Bryan H.; Winter, James E.; Allahdadi, Firooz A.

1992-01-01

The Space Kinetic Impact and Debris Branch began an ambitious program to construct a fully analytical model of the breakup of a satellite under hypervelocity impact. In order to provide empirical data with which to substantiate the model, debris from hypervelocity experiments conducted in a controlled laboratory environment were characterized to provide information of its mass, velocity, and ballistic coefficient distributions. Data on the debris were collected in one master data file, and a simple FORTRAN program allows users to describe the debris from any subset of these experiments that may be of interest to them. A statistical analysis was performed, allowing users to determine the precision of the velocity measurements for the data. Attempts are being made to include and correlate other laboratory data, as well as those data obtained from the explosion or collision of spacecraft in low earth orbit.

Capturing spatiotemporal variation in wildfires for improving postwildfire debris-flow hazard assessments: Chapter 20

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haas, Jessica R.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Tillery, Anne C.; Scott, Joe H.

2017-01-01

Wildfires can increase the frequency and magnitude of catastrophic debris flows. Integrated, proactive natural hazard assessment would therefore characterize landscapes based on the potential for the occurrence and interactions of wildfires and postwildfire debris flows. This chapter presents a new modeling effort that can quantify the variability surrounding a key input to postwildfire debris-flow modeling, the amount of watershed burned at moderate to high severity, in a prewildfire context. The use of stochastic wildfire simulation captures variability surrounding the timing and location of ignitions, fire weather patterns, and ultimately the spatial patterns of watershed area burned. Model results provide for enhanced estimates of postwildfire debris-flow hazard in a prewildfire context, and multiple hazard metrics are generated to characterize and contrast hazards across watersheds. Results can guide mitigation efforts by allowing planners to identify which factors may be contributing the most to the hazard rankings of watersheds.

Predicted and observed directional dependence of meteoroid/debris impacts on LDEF thermal blankets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drolshagen, Gerhard

1993-01-01

The number of impacts from meteoroids and space debris particles to the various LDEF rows is calculated using ESABASE/DEBRIS, a 3-D numerical analysis tool. It is based on recent reference environment flux models and includes geometrical and directional effects. A comparison of model predictions and actual observations is made for penetrations of the thermal blankets which covered the UHCR experiment. The thermal blankets were located on all LDEF rows, except 3, 9, and 12. Because of their uniform composition and thickness, these blankets allow a direct analysis of the directional dependence of impacts and provide a test case for the latest meteoroid and debris flux models.

The Influence of Solid Rocket Motor Retro-Burns on the Space Debris Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stabroth, S.; Homeister, M.; Oswald, M.; Wiedemann, C.; Klinkrad, H.; Vörsmann, P.

The ESA space debris population model MASTER Meteoroid and Space Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference considers firings of solid rocket motors SRM as a debris source with the associated generation of slag and dust particles The resulting slag and dust population is a major contribution to the sub-millimetre size debris environment in Earth orbit The current model version MASTER-2005 is based on the simulation of 1 076 orbital SRM firings which contributed to the long-term debris environment A comparison of the modelled flux with impact data from returned surfaces shows that the shape and quantity of the modelled SRM dust distribution matches that of recent Hubble Space Telescope HST solar array measurements very well However the absolute flux level for dust is under-predicted for some of the analysed Long Duration Exposure Facility LDEF surfaces This points into the direction of some past SRM firings not included in the current event database The most suitable candidates for these firings are the large number of SRM retro-burns of return capsules Objects released by those firings have highly eccentric orbits with perigees in the lower regions of the atmosphere Thus they produce no long-term effect on the debris environment However a large number of those firings during the on-orbit time frame of LDEF might lead to an increase of the dust population for some of the LDEF surfaces In this paper the influence of SRM retro-burns on the short- and long-term debris environment is analysed The existing firing database is updated with gathered

Sequential webcam monitoring and modeling of marine debris abundance.

PubMed

Kako, Shin'ichiro; Isobe, Atsuhiko; Kataoka, Tomoya; Yufu, Kei; Sugizono, Shuto; Plybon, Charlie; Murphy, Thomas A

2018-05-14

The amount of marine debris washed ashore on a beach in Newport, Oregon, USA was observed automatically and sequentially using a webcam system. To investigate potential causes of the temporal variability of marine debris abundance, its time series was compared with those of satellite-derived wind speeds and sea surface height off the Oregon coast. Shoreward flow induced by downwelling-favorable southerly winds increases marine debris washed ashore on the beach in winter. We also found that local sea-level rise caused by westerly winds, especially at spring tide, moved the high-tide line toward the land, so that marine debris littered on the beach was likely to re-drift into the ocean. Seasonal and sub-monthly fluctuations of debris abundance were well reproduced using a simple numerical model driven by satellite-derived wind data, with significant correlation at 95% confidence level. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does the Presence of Planets Affect the Frequency and Properties of Extrasolar Kuiper Belts? Results from the Herschel Debris and Dunes Surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moro-Martín, A.; Marshall, J. P.; Kennedy, G.; Sibthorpe, B.; Matthews, B. C.; Eiroa, C.; Wyatt, M. C.; Lestrade, J.-F.; Maldonado, J.; Rodriguez, D.; Greaves, J. S.; Montesinos, B.; Mora, A.; Booth, M.; Duchêne, G.; Wilner, D.; Horner, J.

2015-03-01

The study of the planet-debris disk connection can shed light on the formation and evolution of planetary systems and may help “predict” the presence of planets around stars with certain disk characteristics. In preliminary analyses of subsamples of the Herschel DEBRIS and DUNES surveys, Wyatt et al. and Marshall et al. identified a tentative correlation between debris and the presence of low-mass planets. Here we use the cleanest possible sample out of these Herschel surveys to assess the presence of such a correlation, discarding stars without known ages, with ages \\lt 1 Gyr, and with binary companions \\lt 100 AU to rule out possible correlations due to effects other than planet presence. In our resulting subsample of 204 FGK stars, we do not find evidence that debris disks are more common or more dusty around stars harboring high-mass or low-mass planets compared to a control sample without identified planets. There is no evidence either that the characteristic dust temperature of the debris disks around planet-bearing stars is any different from that in debris disks without identified planets, nor that debris disks are more or less common (or more or less dusty) around stars harboring multiple planets compared to single-planet systems. Diverse dynamical histories may account for the lack of correlations. The data show a correlation between the presence of high-mass planets and stellar metallicity, but no correlation between the presence of low-mass planets or debris and stellar metallicity. Comparing the observed cumulative distribution of fractional luminosity to those expected from a Gaussian distribution in logarithmic scale, we find that a distribution centered on the solar system’s value fits the data well, while one centered at 10 times this value can be rejected. This is of interest in the context of future terrestrial planet detection and characterization because it indicates that there are good prospects for finding a large number of debris disk systems (i.e., with evidence of harboring planetesimals, the building blocks of planets) with exozodiacal emission low enough to be appropriate targets for an ATLAST-type mission to search for biosignatures.

1D numerical model of muddy subaqueous and subaerial debris flows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Imran, J.; Parker, G.; Locat, J.; Lee, H.

2001-01-01

A 1D numerical model of the downslope flow and deposition of muddy subaerial and subaqueous debris flows is presented. The model incorporates the Herschel-Bulkley and bilinear rheologies of viscoplastic fluid. The more familiar Bingham model is integrated into the Herschel-Bulkley rheological model. The conservation equations of mass and momentum of single-phase laminar debris flow are layer-integrated using the slender flow approximation. They are then expressed in a Lagrangian framework and solved numerically using an explicit finite difference scheme. Starting from a given initial shape, a debris flow is allowed to collapse and propagate over a specified topography. Comparison between the model predictions and laboratory experiments shows reasonable agreement. The model is used to study the effect of the ambient fluid density, initial shape of the failed mass, and rheological model on the simulated propagation of the front and runout characteristics of muddy debris flows. It is found that initial failure shape influence the front velocity but has little bearing on the final deposit shape. In the Bingham model, the excess of shear stress above the yield strength is proportional to the strain rate to the first power. This exponent is free to vary in the Herschel-Bulkley model. When it is set at a value lower than unity, the resulting final deposits are thicker and shorter than in the case of the Bingham rheology. The final deposit resulting from the bilinear model is longer and thinner than that from the Bingham model due to the fact that the debris flow is allowed to act as a Newtonian fluid at low shear rate in the bilinear model.

Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards for the 2013 Springs Fire, Ventura County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staley, Dennis M.

2014-01-01

Wildfire can significantly alter the hydrologic response of a watershed to the extent that even modest rainstorms can produce dangerous flash floods and debris flows. In this report, empirical models are used to predict the probability and magnitude of debris-flow occurrence in response to a 10-year rainstorm for the 2013 Springs fire in Ventura County, California. Overall, the models predict a relatively high probability (60–80 percent) of debris flow for 9 of the 99 drainage basins in the burn area in response to a 10-year recurrence interval design storm. Predictions of debris-flow volume suggest that debris flows may entrain a significant volume of material, with 28 of the 99 basins identified as having potential debris-flow volumes greater than 10,000 cubic meters. These results of the relative combined hazard analysis suggest there is a moderate likelihood of significant debris-flow hazard within and downstream of the burn area for nearby populations, infrastructure, wildlife, and water resources. Given these findings, we recommend that residents, emergency managers, and public works departments pay close attention to weather forecasts and National Weather Service-issued Debris Flow and Flash Flood Outlooks, Watches, and Warnings, and that residents adhere to any evacuation orders.

Lunar and Planetary Science Conference, 14th, Houston, TX, March 14-18, 1983, Proceedings. Part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boynton, W. V. (Editor); Schubert, G. (Editor)

1984-01-01

Various topics on the geology and evolution of the moon, planets, and meteorites are addressed. Some of the subjects considered include: Venusian rocks, impact cratering rate in recent time, ice and debris in Martian fretted terrain, geological evolution of Ganymede's Galileo Regio, and Lu-Hf and Sm-Nd evolution in lunar mare basalts. Also discussed are: ages and cosmic ray exposure history of moon rocks, U-Pb geochronology of zircons from lunar breccia, petrologic comparisons of Cayley and Descartes, chemistry and origin of chondrites and condrules, and the petrogenesis of SNC meteorites.

Hyperaccretion during tidal disruption events: weakly bound debris envelopes and jets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coughlin, Eric; Begelman, M. C.

2014-01-01

After the destruction of the star during a tidal disruption event (TDE), the cataclysmic encounter between a star and the supermassive black hole (SMBH) of a galaxy, approximately half of the original stellar debris falls back onto the hole at a rate that can initially exceed the Eddington limit by orders of magnitude. We argue that the angular momentum of this matter is too low to allow it to attain a disk-like configuration with accretion proceeding at a mildly super-Eddington rate, the excess energy being carried away by a combination of radiative losses and radially distributed winds. Instead, we propose that the in-falling gas traps accretion energy until it inflates into a weakly-bound, quasi-spherical structure with gas extending nearly to the poles. We study the structure and evolution of such “Zero-Bernoulli accretion” flows (ZEBRAs) as a model for the super- Eddington phase of TDEs. We argue that such flows cannot stop extremely super-Eddington accretion from occurring, and that once the envelope is maximally inflated, any excess accretion energy escapes through the poles in the form of powerful jets. Similar models, including self-gravity, could be applicable to gamma-ray bursts from collapsars and the growth of supermassive black hole seeds inside quasi-stars.

Debris flow hazards mitigation--Mechanics, prediction, and assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, C.-L.; Major, J.J.

2007-01-01

These proceedings contain papers presented at the Fourth International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Prediction, and Assessment held in Chengdu, China, September 10-13, 2007. The papers cover a wide range of topics on debris-flow science and engineering, including the factors triggering debris flows, geomorphic effects, mechanics of debris flows (e.g., rheology, fluvial mechanisms, erosion and deposition processes), numerical modeling, various debris-flow experiments, landslide-induced debris flows, assessment of debris-flow hazards and risk, field observations and measurements, monitoring and alert systems, structural and non-structural countermeasures against debris-flow hazards and case studies. The papers reflect the latest devel-opments and advances in debris-flow research. Several studies discuss the development and appli-cation of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) technologies in debris-flow hazard/risk assessment. Timely topics presented in a few papers also include the development of new or innovative techniques for debris-flow monitoring and alert systems, especially an infra-sound acoustic sensor for detecting debris flows. Many case studies illustrate a wide variety of debris-flow hazards and related phenomena as well as their hazardous effects on human activities and settlements.

Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Monitoring of a Tidal Disruption Eventd

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kochanek, Chris

2017-08-01

Tidal disruption events (TDE), where supermassive black holes destroy stars toproduce accretion flares, are of great current observational andtheoretical interest. Here we propose a seven epoch STIS UV spectroscopic movie'' of a UV bright TDE spread over the first 90 days after a rapid TOO trigger. The roughly 15 day cadence is comparable to the expected and observed time scales for kinematic changes in theoptical and UV emission and absorption lines. We will measurethe evolution of UV absorption and emission lines from elements(e.g., C, N, Si) and ionization states/potentials not seen in optical spectra of TDEs, which should help to illuminate theirdynamical evolution. In some cases, the debris from the stellar cores should have significantly enhanced [N/C] abundances due to the CNO cycle, so UV spectra can provide a means of differentiating debris fromthe core and the envelope of the disrupted star. Optically-selectedTDEs are energetically dominated by their UV emission, making itthe wavelength range most needed to understand these fascinatingtransients.

Modeling respiration from snags and coarse woody debris before and after an invasive gypsy moth disturbance

Treesearch

Heidi J. Renninger; Nicholas Carlo; Kenneth L. Clark; Karina V.R. Schäfer

2014-01-01

Although snags and coarse woody debris are a small component of ecosystem respiration, disturbances can significantly increase the mass and respiration from these carbon (C) pools. The objectives of this study were to (1) measure respiration rates of snags and coarse woody debris throughout the year in a forest previously defoliated by gypsy moths, (2) develop models...

Discrete Element Modelling of Floating Debris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahaffey, Samantha; Liang, Qiuhua; Parkin, Geoff; Large, Andy; Rouainia, Mohamed

2016-04-01

Flash flooding is characterised by high velocity flows which impact vulnerable catchments with little warning time and as such, result in complex flow dynamics which are difficult to replicate through modelling. The impacts of flash flooding can be made yet more severe by the transport of both natural and anthropogenic debris, ranging from tree trunks to vehicles, wheelie bins and even storage containers, the effects of which have been clearly evident during recent UK flooding. This cargo of debris can have wide reaching effects and result in actual flood impacts which diverge from those predicted. A build-up of debris may lead to partial channel blockage and potential flow rerouting through urban centres. Build-up at bridges and river structures also leads to increased hydraulic loading which may result in damage and possible structural failure. Predicting the impacts of debris transport; however, is difficult as conventional hydrodynamic modelling schemes do not intrinsically include floating debris within their calculations. Subsequently a new tool has been developed using an emerging approach, which incorporates debris transport through the coupling of two existing modelling techniques. A 1D hydrodynamic modelling scheme has here been coupled with a 2D discrete element scheme to form a new modelling tool which predicts the motion and flow-interaction of floating debris. Hydraulic forces arising from flow around the object are applied to instigate its motion. Likewise, an equivalent opposing force is applied to fluid cells, enabling backwater effects to be simulated. Shock capturing capabilities make the tool applicable to predicting the complex flow dynamics associated with flash flooding. The modelling scheme has been applied to experimental case studies where cylindrical wooden dowels are transported by a dam-break wave. These case studies enable validation of the tool's shock capturing capabilities and the coupling technique applied between the two numerical schemes. The results show that the tool is able to adequately replicate water depth and depth-averaged velocity of a dam-break wave, as well as velocity and displacement of floating cylindrical elements, thus validating its shock capturing capabilities and the coupling technique applied for this simple test case. Future development of the tool will incorporate a 2D hydrodynamic scheme and a 3D discrete element scheme in order to model the more complex processes associated with debris transport.

A probabilistic model of debris-flow delivery to stream channels, demonstrated for the Coast Range of Oregon, USA

Treesearch

Daniel J. Miller; Kelly M. Burnett

2008-01-01

Debris flows are important geomorphic agents in mountainous terrains that shape channel environments and add a dynamic element to sediment supply and channel disturbance. Identification of channels susceptible to debris-flow inputs of sediment and organic debris, and quantification of the likelihood and magnitude of those inputs, are key tasks for characterizing...

LIDT-DD: A new self-consistent debris disc model that includes radiation pressure and couples dynamical and collisional evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kral, Q.; Thébault, P.; Charnoz, S.

2013-10-01

Context. In most current debris disc models, the dynamical and the collisional evolutions are studied separately with N-body and statistical codes, respectively, because of stringent computational constraints. In particular, incorporating collisional effects (especially destructive collisions) into an N-body scheme has proven a very arduous task because of the exponential increase of particles it would imply. Aims: We present here LIDT-DD, the first code able to mix both approaches in a fully self-consistent way. Our aim is for it to be generic enough to be applied to any astrophysical case where we expect dynamics and collisions to be deeply interlocked with one another: planets in discs, violent massive breakups, destabilized planetesimal belts, bright exozodiacal discs, etc. Methods: The code takes its basic architecture from the LIDT3D algorithm for protoplanetary discs, but has been strongly modified and updated to handle the very constraining specificities of debris disc physics: high-velocity fragmenting collisions, radiation-pressure affected orbits, absence of gas that never relaxes initial conditions, etc. It has a 3D Lagrangian-Eulerian structure, where grains of a given size at a given location in a disc are grouped into super-particles or tracers whose orbits are evolved with an N-body code and whose mutual collisions are individually tracked and treated using a particle-in-a-box prescription designed to handle fragmenting impacts. To cope with the wide range of possible dynamics for same-sized particles at any given location in the disc, and in order not to lose important dynamical information, tracers are sorted and regrouped into dynamical families depending on their orbits. A complex reassignment routine that searches for redundant tracers in each family and reassignes them where they are needed, prevents the number of tracers from diverging. Results: The LIDT-DD code has been successfully tested on simplified cases for which robust results have been obtained in past studies: we retrieve the classical features of particle size distributions in unperturbed discs and the outer radial density profiles in ~r-1.5 outside narrow collisionally active rings as well as the depletion of small grains in dynamically cold discs. The potential of the new code is illustrated with the test case of the violent breakup of a massive planetesimal within a debris disc. Preliminary results show that we are able for the first time to quantify the timescale over which the signature of such massive break-ups can be detected. In addition to studying such violent transient events, the main potential future applications of the code are planet and disc interactions, and more generally, any configurations where dynamics and collisions are expected to be intricately connected.

The Erebus Montes Debris-Apron Population: Investigation of Amazonian Landscape Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Gasselt, S.; Orgel, C.; Schulz, J.

2014-04-01

Lobate debris aprons are considered to be indicators for the presence of ice and water reservoirs on Mars and are therefore sensitive to climate variability. The northern hemisphere of Mars is characterized by three major populations of debris aprons (see, e.g. [12]): (1) the Tempe Terra/Mareotis Fossae region [2, 5], (2) the Deuteronilus/Protonilus Mensae [1, 4, 8], and (3) the Phlegra Montes (PM) [3]. The broader PM area can subdivided inro a number of smaller populations dispersed across parts of Arcadia Planitia (see figure 1) of which the Erebus Montes located at 180-195oE, 25-41oN form a well-confined set of features. We here focus on age and erosional characteristics of the northern Erebus Montes (see inset in figure 1). Our study makes use of panchromatic image data obtained by the High Resolution Stereo Camera (HRSC) [9, 6] onboard Mars Express and the Context Camera (CTX) [7] onboard Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. Image data analyses are supported by digital terrain-model data derived from HRSC based stereo imaging [10] and from Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) [11]. We performed detailed geologic mapping at a scale of 1:10,000 and analysed age relationships and erosion rates based on a similar approach as outlined in [5] for the northern part of the Erebus Montes. The aim of this study is to compare feature characteristics to other populations in order to assess timing and the overarching control of landforms evolution in the Martian northern hemisphere. The EM compare geologically relatively well with the Phlegra Montes in terms of individual feature morphologies. The concentration based on cluster analysis (figure 1) shows an up to 10 times higher concentration of remnants per 25 km2 area peaking at 3.4×10-3 features for Erebus Montes. Debris aprons show well-defined age signals ranging from 15 Myr up to 145 Myr. Some units even show continuous degradation implying active denudation of the Noachian to Hesperian-aged remnant massifs. Based on the current status of investigations latitudinally dependent age trends cannot be observed which is likely to be related to the small extent of the northern region. Erosion rates determined at selected remnants are comparable to the Tempe Terra region with 0.1-0.3 mm·a-1 (100-300 B) [5], depending on the model that has been used for our calculations. An explanation for such high Amazonian rates could be that much of the apron material has not been accumulated through denudation processes but by atmospheric deposition and removal of material from high-relief areas.

Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards for the 2013 Mountain fire, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staley, Dennis M.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Smoczyk, Greg M.; Reeves, Ryan R.

2013-01-01

Wildfire dramatically alters the hydrologic response of a watershed such that even modest rainstorms can produce dangerous flash floods and debris flows. We use empirical models to predict the probability and magnitude of debris flow occurrence in response to a 10-year rainstorm for the 2013 Mountain fire near Palm Springs, California. Overall, the models predict a relatively high probability (60–100 percent) of debris flow for six of the drainage basins in the burn area in response to a 10-year recurrence interval design storm. Volumetric predictions suggest that debris flows that occur may entrain a significant volume of material, with 8 of the 14 basins identified as having potential debris-flow volumes greater than 100,000 cubic meters. These results suggest there is a high likelihood of significant debris-flow hazard within and downstream of the burn area for nearby populations, infrastructure, and wildlife and water resources. Given these findings, we recommend that residents, emergency managers, and public works departments pay close attention to weather forecasts and National Weather Service–issued Debris Flow and Flash Flood Outlooks, Watches and Warnings and that residents adhere to any evacuation orders.

A Comparison of the SOCIT and DebriSat Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ausay, Erick; Blake, Brandon; Boyle, Colleen; Cornejo, Alex; Horn, Alexa; Palma, Kirsten; Pistella, Frank; Sato, Taishi; Todd, Naromi; Zimmerman, Jeffrey;

Orbital Debris Quarterly News. Volume 13; No. 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, J.-C. (Editor); Shoots, Debi (Editor)

2009-01-01

Topics discussed include: new debris from a decommissioned satellite with a nuclear power source; debris from the destruction of the Fengyun-1C meteorological satellite; quantitative analysis of the European Space Agency's Automated Transfer Vehicle 'Jules Verne' reentry event; microsatellite impact tests; solar cycle 24 predictions and other long-term projections and geosynchronus (GEO) environment for the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2008). Abstracts from the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, examining satellite reentry risk assessments and statistical issues for uncontrolled reentry hazards, are also included.

Updating the NASA LEO Orbital Debris Environment Model with Recent Radar and Optical Observations and in Situ Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, J.-C.; Anz-Meador, P.; Matney, M. J.; Kessler, D. J.; Theall, J.; Johnson, N. L.

2000-01-01

The Low Earth Orbit (LEO, between 200 and 2000 km altitudes) debris environment has been constantly measured by NASA Johnson Space Center's Liquid Mirror Telescope (LMT) since 1996 (Africano et al. 1999, NASA JSC-28826) and by Haystack and Haystack Auxiliary radars at MIT Lincoln Laboratory since 1990 (Settecerri et al. 1999, NASA JSC-28744). Debris particles as small as 3 mm can be detected by the radars and as small as 3 cm can be measured by LMT. Objects about 10 cm in diameter and greater are tracked and catalogued by the US Space Surveillance Network. Much smaller (down to several micrometers) natural and debris particle populations can be estimated based on in situ measurements, such as Long Duration Exposure Facility, and based on analyses of returned surfaces, such as Hubble Space Telescope solar arrays, European Retrievable Carrier, and Space Shuttles. To increase our understanding of the current LEO debris environment, the Orbital Debris Program Office at NASA JSC has initiated an effort to improve and update the ORDEM96 model (Kessler et al. 1996, NASA TM-104825) utilizing the recently available data. This paper gives an overview of the new NASA orbital debris engineering model, ORDEM2000.

Smaller solar system bodies and orbits; Proceedings of Symposium 3, Workshops II, III, and XXVI, and Topical Meetings of the 27th COSPAR Plenary Meeting, Espoo, Finland, July 18-29, 1988

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Runcorn, S. K. (Editor); Carr, M. H. (Editor); Moehlmann, D. (Editor); Stiller, H. (Editor); Matson, D. L. (Editor); Ambrosius, B. A. C. (Editor); Kessler, D. J. (Editor)

1990-01-01

Topics discussed in this volume include the reappraisal of the moon and Mars/Phobos/Deimos; the origin and evolution of planetary and satellite systems; asteroids, comets, and dust (a post-IRAS perspective); satellite dynamics; future planetary missions; and orbital debris. Papers are presented on a comparison of the chemistry of moon and Mars, the use of a mobile surface radar to study the atmosphere and ionosphere, and laser-ionization studies with the technical models of the LIMA-D/Phobos. Attention is given to planetogonic scenarios and the evolution of relatively mass-rich preplanetary disks, the kinetic behavior of planetesimals revolving around the sun, the planetary evolution of Mars, and pre- and post-IRAS asteroid taxonomies. Consideration is also given to ocean tides and tectonic plate motions in high-precision orbit determination, the satellite altimeter calibration techniques, a theory of the motion of an artificial satellite in the earth atmosphere, ESA plans for planetary exploration, and the detection of earth orbiting objects by IRAS.

Smaller solar system bodies and orbits; Proceedings of Symposium 3, Workshops II, III, and XXVI, and Topical Meetings of the 27th COSPAR Plenary Meeting, Espoo, Finland, July 18-29, 1988

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Runcorn, S. K.; Carr, M. H.; Moehlmann, D.; Stiller, H.; Matson, D. L.; Ambrosius, B. A. C.; Kessler, D. J.

Topics discussed in this volume include the reappraisal of the moon and Mars/Phobos/Deimos; the origin and evolution of planetary and satellite systems; asteroids, comets, and dust (a post-IRAS perspective); satellite dynamics; future planetary missions; and orbital debris. Papers are presented on a comparison of the chemistry of moon and Mars, the use of a mobile surface radar to study the atmosphere and ionosphere, and laser-ionization studies with the technical models of the LIMA-D/Phobos. Attention is given to planetogonic scenarios and the evolution of relatively mass-rich preplanetary disks, the kinetic behavior of planetesimals revolving around the sun, the planetary evolution of Mars, and pre- and post-IRAS asteroid taxonomies. Consideration is also given to ocean tides and tectonic plate motions in high-precision orbit determination, the satellite altimeter calibration techniques, a theory of the motion of an artificial satellite in the earth atmosphere, ESA plans for planetary exploration, and the detection of earth orbiting objects by IRAS.

A novel mechanical model for phase-separation in debris flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pudasaini, Shiva P.

2015-04-01

Understanding the physics of phase-separation between solid and fluid phases as a two-phase mass moves down slope is a long-standing challenge. Here, I propose a fundamentally new mechanism, called 'separation-flux', that leads to strong phase-separation in avalanche and debris flows. This new model extends the general two-phase debris flow model (Pudasaini, 2012) to include a separation-flux mechanism. The new flux separation mechanism is capable of describing and controlling the dynamically evolving phase-separation, segregation, and/or levee formation in a real two-phase, geometrically three-dimensional debris flow motion and deposition. These are often observed phenomena in natural debris flows and industrial processes that involve the transportation of particulate solid-fluid mixture material. The novel separation-flux model includes several dominant physical and mechanical aspects that result in strong phase-separation (segregation). These include pressure gradients, volume fractions of solid and fluid phases and their gradients, shear-rates, flow depth, material friction, viscosity, material densities, boundary structures, gravity and topographic constraints, grain shape, size, etc. Due to the inherent separation mechanism, as the mass moves down slope, more and more solid particles are brought to the front, resulting in a solid-rich and mechanically strong frontal surge head followed by a weak tail largely consisting of the viscous fluid. The primary frontal surge head followed by secondary surge is the consequence of the phase-separation. Such typical and dominant phase-separation phenomena are revealed here for the first time in real two-phase debris flow modeling and simulations. However, these phenomena may depend on the bulk material composition and the applied forces. Reference: Pudasaini, Shiva P. (2012): A general two-phase debris flow model. J. Geophys. Res., 117, F03010, doi: 10.1029/2011JF002186.

Debris-flow runout predictions based on the average channel slope (ACS)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prochaska, A.B.; Santi, P.M.; Higgins, J.D.; Cannon, S.H.

2008-01-01

Prediction of the runout distance of a debris flow is an important element in the delineation of potentially hazardous areas on alluvial fans and for the siting of mitigation structures. Existing runout estimation methods rely on input parameters that are often difficult to estimate, including volume, velocity, and frictional factors. In order to provide a simple method for preliminary estimates of debris-flow runout distances, we developed a model that provides runout predictions based on the average channel slope (ACS model) for non-volcanic debris flows that emanate from confined channels and deposit on well-defined alluvial fans. This model was developed from 20 debris-flow events in the western United States and British Columbia. Based on a runout estimation method developed for snow avalanches, this model predicts debris-flow runout as an angle of reach from a fixed point in the drainage channel to the end of the runout zone. The best fixed point was found to be the mid-point elevation of the drainage channel, measured from the apex of the alluvial fan to the top of the drainage basin. Predicted runout lengths were more consistent than those obtained from existing angle-of-reach estimation methods. Results of the model compared well with those of laboratory flume tests performed using the same range of channel slopes. The robustness of this model was tested by applying it to three debris-flow events not used in its development: predicted runout ranged from 82 to 131% of the actual runout for these three events. Prediction interval multipliers were also developed so that the user may calculate predicted runout within specified confidence limits. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Applying genetic algorithms for calibrating a hexagonal cellular automata model for the simulation of debris flows characterised by strong inertial effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iovine, G.; D'Ambrosio, D.; Di Gregorio, S.

2005-03-01

In modelling complex a-centric phenomena which evolve through local interactions within a discrete time-space, cellular automata (CA) represent a valid alternative to standard solution methods based on differential equations. Flow-type phenomena (such as lava flows, pyroclastic flows, earth flows, and debris flows) can be viewed as a-centric dynamical systems, and they can therefore be properly investigated in CA terms. SCIDDICA S 4a is the last release of a two-dimensional hexagonal CA model for simulating debris flows characterised by strong inertial effects. S 4a has been obtained by progressively enriching an initial simplified model, originally derived for simulating very simple cases of slow-moving flow-type landslides. Using an empirical strategy, in S 4a, the inertial character of the flowing mass is translated into CA terms by means of local rules. In particular, in the transition function of the model, the distribution of landslide debris among the cells is obtained through a double cycle of computation. In the first phase, the inertial character of the landslide debris is taken into account by considering indicators of momentum. In the second phase, any remaining debris in the central cell is distributed among the adjacent cells, according to the principle of maximum possible equilibrium. The complexities of the model and of the phenomena to be simulated suggested the need for an automated technique of evaluation for the determination of the best set of global parameters. Accordingly, the model is calibrated using a genetic algorithm and by considering the May 1998 Curti-Sarno (Southern Italy) debris flow. The boundaries of the area affected by the debris flow are simulated well with the model. Errors computed by comparing the simulations with the mapped areal extent of the actual landslide are smaller than those previously obtained without genetic algorithms. As the experiments have been realised in a sequential computing environment, they could be improved by adopting a parallel environment, which allows the performance of a great number of tests in reasonable times.

Modeling the space debris environment with MASTER-2009 and ORDEM2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flegel, Sven Kevin; Krisko, Paula; Gelhaus, Johannes; Wiedemann, Carsten; Moeckel, Marek; Krag, Holger; Klinkrad, Heiner; Xu, Yu-Lin; Horstman, Matthew; Matney, Mark; Vörsmann, Peter

The two software tools MASTER-2009 and ORDEM2010 are the ESA and NASA reference software tools respectively which describe the earth's debris environment. The primary goal of both programs is to allow users to estimate the object flux onto a target object for mission planning. The current paper describes the basic distinctions in the model philosophies. At the core of each model lies the method by which the object environment is established. Cen-tral to this process is the role played by the results from radar/telescope observations or impact fluxes on surfaces returned from earth orbit. The ESA Meteoroid and Space Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference Model (MASTER) is engineered to give a realistic description of the natural and the man-made particulate environment of the earth. Debris sources are simulated based on detailed lists of known historical events such as fragmentations or solid rocket motor firings or through simulation of secondary debris such as impact ejecta or the release of paint flakes from degrading spacecraft surfaces. The resulting population is then validated against historical telescope/radar campaigns using the ESA Program for Radar and Optical Observa-tion Forecasting (PROOF) and against object impact fluxes on surfaces returned from space. The NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) series is designed to provide reliable estimates of orbital debris flux on spacecraft and through telescope or radar fields-of-view. Central to the model series is the empirical nature of the input populations. These are derived from NASA orbital debris modeling but verified, where possible, with measurement data from various sources. The latest version of the series, ORDEM2010, compiles over two decades of data from NASA radar systems, telescopes, in-situ sources, and ground tests that are analyzed by statistical methods. For increased understanding of the application ranges of the two programs, the current paper provides an overview of the two models' main program features and the methods by which simulation results are presented. This paper is written in a combined effort by ESA and NASA.

Using Logistic Regression to Predict the Probability of Debris Flows in Areas Burned by Wildfires, Southern California, 2003-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rupert, Michael G.; Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Helsel, Dennis R.

2008-01-01

Logistic regression was used to develop statistical models that can be used to predict the probability of debris flows in areas recently burned by wildfires by using data from 14 wildfires that burned in southern California during 2003-2006. Twenty-eight independent variables describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties of 306 drainage basins located within those burned areas were evaluated. The models were developed as follows: (1) Basins that did and did not produce debris flows soon after the 2003 to 2006 fires were delineated from data in the National Elevation Dataset using a geographic information system; (2) Data describing the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were compiled for each basin. These data were then input to a statistics software package for analysis using logistic regression; and (3) Relations between the occurrence or absence of debris flows and the basin morphology, burn severity, rainfall, and soil properties were evaluated, and five multivariate logistic regression models were constructed. All possible combinations of independent variables were evaluated to determine which combinations produced the most effective models, and the multivariate models that best predicted the occurrence of debris flows were identified. Percentage of high burn severity and 3-hour peak rainfall intensity were significant variables in all models. Soil organic matter content and soil clay content were significant variables in all models except Model 5. Soil slope was a significant variable in all models except Model 4. The most suitable model can be selected from these five models on the basis of the availability of independent variables in the particular area of interest and field checking of probability maps. The multivariate logistic regression models can be entered into a geographic information system, and maps showing the probability of debris flows can be constructed in recently burned areas of southern California. This study demonstrates that logistic regression is a valuable tool for developing models that predict the probability of debris flows occurring in recently burned landscapes.

Rainfall threshold calculation for debris flow early warning in areas with scarcity of data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Hua-Li; Jiang, Yuan-Jun; Wang, Jun; Ou, Guo-Qiang

2018-05-01

Debris flows are natural disasters that frequently occur in mountainous areas, usually accompanied by serious loss of lives and properties. One of the most commonly used approaches to mitigate the risk associated with debris flows is the implementation of early warning systems based on well-calibrated rainfall thresholds. However, many mountainous areas have little data regarding rainfall and hazards, especially in debris-flow-forming regions. Therefore, the traditional statistical analysis method that determines the empirical relationship between rainstorms and debris flow events cannot be effectively used to calculate reliable rainfall thresholds in these areas. After the severe Wenchuan earthquake, there were plenty of deposits deposited in the gullies, which resulted in several debris flow events. The triggering rainfall threshold has decreased obviously. To get a reliable and accurate rainfall threshold and improve the accuracy of debris flow early warning, this paper developed a quantitative method, which is suitable for debris flow triggering mechanisms in meizoseismal areas, to identify rainfall threshold for debris flow early warning in areas with a scarcity of data based on the initiation mechanism of hydraulic-driven debris flow. First, we studied the characteristics of the study area, including meteorology, hydrology, topography and physical characteristics of the loose solid materials. Then, the rainfall threshold was calculated by the initiation mechanism of the hydraulic debris flow. The comparison with other models and with alternate configurations demonstrates that the proposed rainfall threshold curve is a function of the antecedent precipitation index (API) and 1 h rainfall. To test the proposed method, we selected the Guojuanyan gully, a typical debris flow valley that during the 2008-2013 period experienced several debris flow events, located in the meizoseismal areas of the Wenchuan earthquake, as a case study. The comparison with other threshold models and configurations shows that the selected approach is the most promising starting point for further studies on debris flow early warning systems in areas with a scarcity of data.

Debris Disk Structure and Morphology as Revealed by Aggressive STIS Multi-Roll Coronagraphy: A New Look at Some Old Friends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grady, Carol A; Kuchner, Marc; Woodgate, Bruce E.

2012-01-01

We present new imaging results from a well-selected sample of II circumstellar debris disks, all with HST pedigree, using STIS visible-light 6-roll PSF-template subtracted coronagraphy (PSFTSC). These new observations, pushing HST to its highest levels of coronagraphic performance, simultaneously probe both the interior regions of these debris systems, with inner working distances < app 8 AU for half the stars in this sample (corresponding to the giant planet and Kuiper belt regions within our own solar system), and the exterior regions far beyond. These new images enable direct inter-comparison of the architectures of these exoplanetary debris systems in the context of our own Solar System: These observations also permit us, for the first time, to characterize material in these regions at high spatial resolution and identify disk sub-structures that are signposts of planet formation and evolution; in particular, asymmetries and non-uniform debris structures that signal the presence of co-orbiting perturbing planets, and dynamical interactions (e.g., resulting in posited small grain stripping and disk "pollution") with the ISM. We focus here on recently acquired and reduced images of he circumstellar debris systems about: AU Mic (edge-on, and @ 10 pc the closest star in our sample), HD 61005, HD 32297 and HD 15115 (all with morphologies strongly suggestive of ISM wind interactions), HD 181327 & HDI07146 (close to face-on with respectively narrow and broad debris rings), and MP Mus (a "mature" proto-planetary disk hosted by a cTTS). All of our objects were previously observed in the near-IR with inferior spatial resolution and imaging efficacy, but with NICMOS r = 0.3" inner working angle (IWA) comparable to STIS multi-roll coronagraphy. The combination of new optical and existing near-IR imaging can strongly constrain the dust properties, thus enabling an assessment of grain processing and planetesimal populations. These results will directly inform upon the posited planet formation mechanisms that occur after the approximately 10 My epoch of gas depletion, a time in our solar system when giant planets were migrating and terrestrial planets were forming, and directly test theoretical models of these processes. These observations lmiquely probe both into the interior regions of these systems and are sensitive to and spatially resolve low surface-brightness (SB) material at large stellocentric distances with spatial resolution comparable to ACS and with augmenting NICMOS near-IR disk photometry in hand.

Post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment of the area burned by the 2013 Beaver Creek Fire near Hailey, central Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skinner, Kenneth D.

2013-01-01

A preliminary hazard assessment was developed for debris-flow hazards in the 465 square-kilometer (115,000 acres) area burned by the 2013 Beaver Creek fire near Hailey in central Idaho. The burn area covers all or part of six watersheds and selected basins draining to the Big Wood River and is at risk of substantial post-fire erosion, such as that caused by debris flows. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the Intermountain Region in Western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence, potential volume of debris flows, and the combined debris-flow hazard ranking along the drainage network within the burn area and to estimate the same for analyzed drainage basins within the burn area. Input data for the empirical models included topographic parameters, soil characteristics, burn severity, and rainfall totals and intensities for a (1) 2-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 2-year storm (13 mm); (2) 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 10-year storm (19 mm); and (3) 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 25-year storm (22 mm). Estimated debris-flow probabilities for drainage basins upstream of 130 selected basin outlets ranged from less than 1 to 78 percent with the probabilities increasing with each increase in storm magnitude. Probabilities were high in three of the six watersheds. For the 25-year storm, probabilities were greater than 60 percent for 11 basin outlets and ranged from 50 to 60 percent for an additional 12 basin outlets. Probability estimates for stream segments within the drainage network can vary within a basin. For the 25-year storm, probabilities for stream segments within 33 basins were higher than the basin outlet, emphasizing the importance of evaluating the drainage network as well as basin outlets. Estimated debris-flow volumes for the three modeled storms range from a minimal debris flow volume of 10 cubic meters [m3]) to greater than 100,000 m3. Estimated debris-flow volumes increased with basin size and distance downstream. For the 25-year storm, estimated debris-flow volumes were greater than 100,000 m3 for 4 basins and between 50,000 and 100,000 m3 for 10 basins. The debris-flow hazard rankings did not result in the highest hazard ranking of 5, indicating that none of the basins had a high probability of debris-flow occurrence and a high debris-flow volume estimate. The hazard ranking was 4 for one basin using the 10-year-recurrence storm model and for three basins using the 25-year-recurrence storm model. The maps presented herein may be used to prioritize areas where post-wildfire remediation efforts should take place within the 2- to 3-year period of increased erosional vulnerability.

In situ measurements of post-fire debris flows in southern California: Comparisons of the timing and magnitude of 24 debris-flow events with rainfall and soil moisture conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kean, J.W.; Staley, D.M.; Cannon, S.H.

2011-01-01

Debris flows often occur in burned steeplands of southern California, sometimes causing property damage and loss of life. In an effort to better understand the hydrologic controls on post-fire debris-flow initiation, timing and magnitude, we measured the flow stage, rainfall, channel bed pore fluid pressure and hillslope soil-moisture accompanying 24 debris flows recorded in five different watersheds burned in the 2009 Station and Jesusita Fires (San Gabriel and Santa Ynez Mountains). The measurements show substantial differences in debris-flow dynamics between sites and between sequential events at the same site. Despite these differences, the timing and magnitude of all events were consistently associated with local peaks in short duration (< = 30 min) rainfall intensity. Overall, debris-flow stage was best cross-correlated with time series of 5-min rainfall intensity, and lagged the rainfall by an average of just 5 min. An index of debris-flow volume was also best correlated with short-duration rainfall intensity, but found to be poorly correlated with storm cumulative rainfall and hillslope soil water content. Post-event observations of erosion and slope stability modeling suggest that the debris flows initiated primarily by processes related to surface water runoff, rather than shallow landslides. By identifying the storm characteristics most closely associated with post-fire debris flows, these measurements provide valuable guidance for warning operations and important constraints for developing and testing models of post-fire debris flows. copyright. 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Terminal zone glacial sediment transfer at a temperate overdeepened glacier system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swift, D. A.; Cook, S. J.; Graham, D. J.; Midgley, N. G.; Fallick, A. E.; Storrar, R.; Toubes Rodrigo, M.; Evans, D. J. A.

2018-01-01

Continuity of sediment transfer through glacial systems is essential to maintain subglacial bedrock erosion, yet transfer at temperate glaciers with overdeepened beds, where subglacial fluvial sediment transport should be greatly limited by adverse slopes, remains poorly understood. Complex multiple transfer processes in temperate overdeepened systems has been indicated by the presence of large frontal moraine systems, supraglacial debris of mixed transport origin, thick basal ice sequences, and englacial thrusts and eskers. At Svínafellsjökull, thrusts comprising decimetre-thick debris-rich bands of stratified facies ice of basal origin, with a coarser size distribution and higher clast content than that observed in basal ice layers, contribute substantially to the transfer of subglacial material in the terminal zone. Entrainment and transfer of material occurs by simple shear along the upper surface of bands and by strain-induced deformation of stratified and firnified glacier ice below. Thrust material includes rounded and well-rounded clasts that are also striated, indicating that fluvial bedload is deposited as subglacial channels approach the overdeepening and then entrained along thrusts. Substantial transfer also occurs within basal ice, with facies type and debris content dependent on the hydrological connectedness of the adverse slope. A process model of transfer at glaciers with terminal overdeepenings is proposed, in which the geometry of the overdeepening influences spatial patterns of ice deformation, hydrology, and basal ice formation. We conclude that the significance of thrusting in maintaining sediment transfer continuity has likely been overlooked by glacier sediment budgets and glacial landscape evolution studies.

Modeling of the Orbital Debris Population of RORSAT Sodium-Potassium Droplets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Y.-L.; Krisko, P. H.; Matney, Mark; Stansbery, E. G.

2010-01-01

A large population resident in the orbital debris environment is composed of eutectic sodium-potassium (NaK) droplets, released during the reactor core ejection of 16 nuclear-powered Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellites (RORSATs) launched in the 1980s by the former Soviet Union. These electrically conducting RORSAT debris objects are spherical in shape, generating highly polarized radar returns. Their diameters are mostly in the centimeter and millimeter size regimes. Since the Space Surveillance Network catalog is limited to objects greater than 5 cm in low Earth orbit, our current knowledge about this special class of orbital debris relies largely on the analysis of Haystack radar data. This paper elaborates the simulation of the RORSAT debris populations in the new NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM2010, which replaces ORDEM2000. The estimation of the NaK populations uses the NASA NaK-module as a benchmark. It follows the general statistical approach to developing all other ORDEM2010-required LEO populations (for various types of debris and across a wide range of object sizes). This paper describes, in detail, each major step in the NaK-population derivation, including a specific discussion on the conversion between Haystack-measured radar-cross-sections and object-size distribution for the NaK droplets. Modeling results show that the RORSAT debris population is stable for the time period under study and that Haystack data sets are fairly consistent over the observations of multiple years.

Large craters on the meteoroid and space debris impact experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Humes, Donald H.

1992-01-01

Examination of 29.37 sq m of thick aluminum plates from the LDEF, which were exposed to the meteoroid and man-made orbital debris environments for 5.8 years, revealed 606 craters that were 0.5 mm in diameter or larger. Most were nearly hemispherical. There was a large variation in the number density of craters around the three axis gravity gradient stabilized spacecraft. A new model of the near-Earth meteoroid environment gives good agreement with the crater fluxes measured on the fourteen faces of the LDEF. The man-made orbital debris model of Kessler, which predicts that 16 pct. of the craters would be caused by man-made debris, is plausible. No chemical analyses of impactor residue that will distinguish between meteoroids and man-made debris is yet available.

The influence of solid rocket motor retro-burns on the space debris environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stabroth, Sebastian; Homeister, Maren; Oswald, Michael; Wiedemann, Carsten; Klinkrad, Heiner; Vörsmann, Peter

The ESA space debris population model MASTER (Meteoroid and Space Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference) considers firings of solid rocket motors (SRM) as a debris source with the associated generation of slag and dust particles. The resulting slag and dust population is a major contribution to the sub-millimetre size debris environment in Earth orbit. The current model version, MASTER-2005, is based on the simulation of 1076 orbital SRM firings which contributed to the long-term debris environment. A comparison of the modelled flux with impact data from returned surfaces shows that the shape and quantity of the modelled SRM dust distribution matches that of recent Hubble Space Telescope (HST) solar array measurements very well. However, the absolute flux level for dust is under-predicted for some of the analysed Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) surfaces. This points into the direction of some past SRM firings not included in the current event database. The most suitable candidates for these firings are the large number of SRM retro-burns of return capsules. Objects released by those firings have highly eccentric orbits with perigees in the lower regions of the atmosphere. Thus, they produce no long-term effect on the debris environment. However, a large number of those firings during the on-orbit time frame of LDEF might lead to an increase of the dust population for some of the LDEF surfaces. In this paper, the influence of SRM retro-burns on the short- and long-term debris environment is analysed. The existing firing database is updated with gathered information of some 800 Russian retro-firings. Each firing is simulated with the MASTER population generation module. The resulting population is compared against the existing background population of SRM slag and dust particles in terms of spatial density and flux predictions.

The development of blue ice moraines from englacial debris bands as detected by GPR, Mt Achernar, central Transantarctic Mountains, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kassab, C.; Lindback, K.; Pettersson, R.; Licht, K.; Graly, J. A.; Kaplan, M. R.

2016-12-01

Blue ice moraines cover a small percentage of Antarctica, but can contain a significant record of ice sheet dynamics and climate over multiple glacial cycles. Previous work has focused on the temporal and provenance record contained within these moraines and less on mechanisms by which such deposits form and their temporal evolution. In order to create a conceptual model of their formation, >25 km of ground penetrating radar transects at 25 and 100 MHz frequencies were collected at the Mt Achernar moraine adjacent to Law Glacier. Here, ice ablation causes debris bands to emerge and deliver sediment to the surface. Most transects were collected perpendicular to the ice-moraine margin, and extend from the actively flowing Law Glacier ice to a distance of 2 km into the moraine. The 25 and 100 MHz transects penetrate to a depth of 200 m and 60 m respectively and reveal a relatively complex internal stratigraphy. Closest to the ice-moraine margin, stratigraphy is not well resolved due to a high amount of clutter. Steeply dipping parallel reflections first emerge 400m away from the ice margin and dip toward Law Glacier. These reflections continue inwards to 1450m, where the reflections become more closely spaced. Hummocky topography and parallel ridge/trough topography dominate the geomorphic expression. The hummocky topography corresponds to the region where reflections are not well resolved. The ridges are interpreted to be debris bands that are emerging at the surface, similar to those along the margin of the Law Glacier where debris is newly emerging. The reflections in the GPR transects indicate that debris is transported from depth to the surface of the ice where it accumulates forming the Mt Achernar moraine. It appears that the various reflection patterns correspond to unique surface geomorphic expressions. The reflections also indicate that at least the first 2 km of debris rich buried ice in the moraine can be linked to the actively flowing Law Glacier. Understanding the formation of this moraine will assist with further interpretation of temporal and provenance data also collected at this site and ultimately contribute to the understanding of ice sheet dynamics and climate records contained within blue ice moraines.

Recent Advances in our Understanding of Debris-covered Glacier Response to Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellicciotti, F.

2016-12-01

Debris-covered glaciers are relevant in many mountainous regions, but both modelling and observational studies are less numerous compared to those on traditional "clean" glaciers. A number of conjectures about their behaviour and response to climate have been made. First, it is assumed that in a warming climate debris cover would increase because of slope instability and increased meltout of englacial debris. Second, large-scale remote sensing studies have suggested that their thinning rates are comparable to those of debris-free glaciers, in spite of the insulating effect of a debris mantle. This apparent anomaly has been explained conceptually through high rates of energy absorption at supraglacial cliffs and ponds, but no evidence for this argument exists at the glacier scale. We validate each of these assumptions based on numerical modelling, analysis of satellite data and field observations from High Mountain Asia and the well monitored Langtang catchment in the Himalaya, in particular. First, no change in debris-covered area is apparent for regions of stable or positive mass balance such as the Karakoram, in line with the reasoning that sustained negative mass balance triggers an increase in debris. Second, results from an ensemble of DEM differences for the Langtang glaciers show that thinning rates of the debris-covered glaciers are not equivalent to those of the debris-free glaciers, contradicting results from the large-scale studies. However, thinning rates are higher than would be expected for a debris-covered surface, and can be explained through physically-based models of cliffs and lakes. These dynamic features form on low-gradient glacier sections between stagnant and dynamic zones, evolve in time and can survive or disappear depending on their characteristics. Ablation from cliffs and lakes is very high and can account between 10 to 30% of mass losses from the glaciers, despite covering a small percentage of the glacier area. Among the mechanisms controlling their persistence and relationship to climate, a key finding is that coupling of cliffs and ponds is a prerequisite for their long term survival. Our study provides a significant step towards a better understanding of the response of debris-covered glaciers to climate change, and highlights avenues of future research.

The sensitivity of the ESA DELTA model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, C.; Walker, R.; Klinkrad, H.

Long-term debris environment models play a vital role in furthering our understanding of the future debris environment, and in aiding the determination of a strategy to preserve the Earth orbital environment for future use. By their very nature these models have to make certain assumptions to enable informative future projections to be made. Examples of these assumptions include the projection of future traffic, including launch and explosion rates, and the methodology used to simulate break-up events. To ensure a sound basis for future projections, and consequently for assessing the effectiveness of various mitigation measures, it is essential that the sensitivity of these models to variations in key assumptions is examined. The DELTA (Debris Environment Long Term Analysis) model, developed by QinetiQ for the European Space Agency, allows the future projection of the debris environment throughout Earth orbit. Extensive analyses with this model have been performed under the auspices of the ESA Space Debris Mitigation Handbook and following the recent upgrade of the model to DELTA 3.0. This paper draws on these analyses to present the sensitivity of the DELTA model to changes in key model parameters and assumptions. Specifically the paper will address the variation in future traffic rates, including the deployment of satellite constellations, and the variation in the break-up model and criteria used to simulate future explosion and collision events.

An integrated approach for hazard assessment and mitigation of debris flows in the Italian Dolomites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasuto, Alessandro; Soldati, Mauro

2004-07-01

This paper shows the results of research on a debris flow occurring on 4 September 1997 in the territory of Cortina d'Ampezzo (Dolomites, Italy) where it caused a significant threat owing to the intense urban development, typical of several Alpine valleys. The event, which affected the talus fans at the foot of Mt. Pomagagnon near the village of Fiames, blocked the state road no. 51 "Alemagna" and, after sparing some houses, barred the course of the Torrent Boite and formed an impoundment. This debris flow aroused great concern among local authorities and the Belluno Civil Engineers Board; therefore, the construction of embankments for protecting the buildings threatened by the debris flow was started immediately. This area was studied in detail during this research in order to identify the hazard situations of the whole slope. The investigations made use of an integrated approach including historical, geomorphological, geostructural, meteorological, pedological, and forest-management aspects. Furthermore, assessments of the debris volumes potentially removable in the source area were carried out. The geomorphological evolution of the area was reconstructed, pinpointing the morphological changes occurring in the past 45 years. Taking into account the increased frequency and magnitude of recent events and considering the location of roads and buildings in the accumulation area, the risk conditions were analysed in order to identify a risk zonation and to propose mitigation measures.

Modeling four occurred debris flow events in the Dolomites area (North-Eastern Italian Alps)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boreggio, Mauro; Gregoretti, Carlo; Degetto, Massimo; Bernard, Martino

2016-04-01

Four occurred debris flows in the Dolomites area (North-Eastern Italian Alps) are modeled by back-analysis. The four debris flows events are those occurred at Rio Lazer (Trento) on the 4th of November 1966, at Fiames (Belluno) on the 5th of July 2006, at Rovina di Cancia (Belluno) on the 18th of July 2009 and at Rio Val Molinara (Trento) on the 15th of August 2010. In all the events, runoff entrained sediments present on natural channels and formed a solid-liquid wave that routed downstream. The first event concerns the routing of debris flow on an inhabited fan. The second event the deviation of debris flow from the usual path due to an obstruction with the excavation of a channel in the scree and the downstream spreading in a wood. The third event concerns the routing of debris flow in a channel with an ending the reservoir, its overtopping and final spreading in the inhabited area. The fourth event concerns the routing of debris flow along the main channel downstream the initiation area until spreading just upstream a village. All the four occurred debris flows are simulated by modeling runoff that entrained debris flow for determining the solid-liquid hydrograph. The routing of the solid-liquid hydrograph is simulated by a bi-phase cell model based on the kinematic approach. The comparison between simulated and measured erosion and deposition depths is satisfactory. Nearly the same parameters for computing erosion and deposition were used for all the four occurred events. The maps of erosion and deposition depths are obtained by comparing the results of post-event surveys with the pre-event DEM. The post-event surveys were conducted by using different instruments (LiDAR and GPS) or the combination photos-single points depth measurements (in this last case it is possible obtaining the deposition/erosion depths by means of stereoscopy techniques).

An Imaging System for Satellite Hypervelocity Impact Debris Characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moraguez, M.; Liou, J.; Fitz-Coy, N.; Patankar, K.; Cowardin, H.

This paper discusses the design of an automated imaging system for size characterization of debris produced by the DebriSat hypervelocity impact test. The goal of the DebriSat project is to update satellite breakup models. A representative LEO satellite, DebriSat, was constructed and subjected to a hypervelocity impact test. The impact produced an estimated 85,000 debris fragments. The size distribution of these fragments is required to update the current satellite breakup models. An automated imaging system was developed for the size characterization of the debris fragments. The system uses images taken from various azimuth and elevation angles around the object to produce a 3D representation of the fragment via a space carving algorithm. The system consists of N point-and-shoot cameras attached to a rigid support structure that defines the elevation angle for each camera. The debris fragment is placed on a turntable that is incrementally rotated to desired azimuth angles. The number of images acquired can be varied based on the desired resolution. Appropriate background and lighting is used for ease of object detection. The system calibration and image acquisition process are automated to result in push-button operations. However, for quality assurance reasons, the system is semi-autonomous by design to ensure operator involvement. This paper describes the imaging system setup, calibration procedure, repeatability analysis, and the results of the debris characterization.

An Imaging System for Satellite Hypervelocity Impact Debris Characterization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moraguez, Matthew; Patankar, Kunal; Fitz-Coy, Norman; Liou, J.-C.; Cowardin, Heather

2015-01-01

This paper discusses the design of an automated imaging system for size characterization of debris produced by the DebriSat hypervelocity impact test. The goal of the DebriSat project is to update satellite breakup models. A representative LEO satellite, DebriSat, was constructed and subjected to a hypervelocity impact test. The impact produced an estimated 85,000 debris fragments. The size distribution of these fragments is required to update the current satellite breakup models. An automated imaging system was developed for the size characterization of the debris fragments. The system uses images taken from various azimuth and elevation angles around the object to produce a 3D representation of the fragment via a space carving algorithm. The system consists of N point-and-shoot cameras attached to a rigid support structure that defines the elevation angle for each camera. The debris fragment is placed on a turntable that is incrementally rotated to desired azimuth angles. The number of images acquired can be varied based on the desired resolution. Appropriate background and lighting is used for ease of object detection. The system calibration and image acquisition process are automated to result in push-button operations. However, for quality assurance reasons, the system is semi-autonomous by design to ensure operator involvement. This paper describes the imaging system setup, calibration procedure, repeatability analysis, and the results of the debris characterization.

Emergency assessment of post-fire debris-flow hazards for the 2013 Rim Fire, Stanislaus National Forest and Yosemite National Park, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staley, Dennis M.

2013-01-01

Wildfire can significantly alter the hydrologic response of a watershed to the extent that even modest rainstorms can produce dangerous flash floods and debris flows. In this report, empirical models are used to predict the probability and magnitude of debris-flow occurrence in response to a 10-year rainstorm for the 2013 Rim fire in Yosemite National Park and the Stanislaus National Forest, California. Overall, the models predict a relatively high probability (60–80 percent) of debris flow for 28 of the 1,238 drainage basins in the burn area in response to a 10-year recurrence interval design storm. Predictions of debris-flow volume suggest that debris flows may entrain a significant volume of material, with 901 of the 1,238 basins identified as having potential debris-flow volumes greater than 10,000 cubic meters. These results of the relative combined hazard analysis suggest there is a moderate likelihood of significant debris-flow hazard within and downstream of the burn area for nearby populations, infrastructure, wildlife, and water resources. Given these findings, we recommend that residents, emergency managers, and public works departments pay close attention to weather forecasts and National-Weather-Service-issued Debris Flow and Flash Flood Outlooks, Watches and Warnings and that residents adhere to any evacuation orders.

Nature of the Warm Excess in eps Eri: Asteroid belt or Dragged-in Grains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Kate

2014-10-01

Eps Eri and its debris disk provide a unique opportunity to probe the outer zones of a planetary system, due to its young age (~1 Gyr) and proximity (3.22 pc, the closest prominent debris disk by more than a factor of two). It is the Rosetta Stone for more distant exoplanetary debris systems and thus critical to understanding the mid-term evolution of our Solar System. From resolved images in the far-infrared and submillimeter along with spectra from 10-35 and 55-95 microns, Backman et al. (2009) found that the eps Eri disk has a complex structure, with multiple zones in both warm (asteroid-like) and cold (KBO-like) components. However, Reidemeister et al. (2011), on the contrary, suggested that the system has only one dominant cold belt and the warm excess originates from small grains in the cold disk, which are transported inward by the combination of P-R and stellar wind drags. Although both models fit the disk SED and marginally resolved far-infrared images relatively well, the resultant disk structures in the 15-50 AU range at mid-infrared wavelengths are expected to be very different. We, therefore, propose to obtain a 35 micron image of the eps Eri system using the FORCAST on SOFIA to test the validity of any models for this zone in eps Eri. No other available facilities can obtain such a 35 micron image, which will provide general constraints on the nature of the warm excess and any potential shepherding planets and their orbits in this iconic debris system. This is a re-submission of our approved cycle 2 program (02_0061), which was scheduled to be executed in Oct 2014. Due to the delay and the uncertain length of the SOFIA aircraft maintenance, it is not clear at the time of the cycle 3 deadline whether the approved observations will be executed in cycle 2. If the observations are carried out in cycle 2, we would withdraw the proposal in cycle 3.

Numerical modeling of the debris flows runout

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Federico, Francesco; Cesali, Chiara

2017-06-01

Rapid debris flows are identified among the most dangerous of all landslides. Due to their destructive potential, the runout length has to be predicted to define the hazardous areas and design safeguarding measures. To this purpose, a continuum model to predict the debris flows mobility is developed. It is based on the well known depth-integrated avalanche model proposed by Savage and Hutter (S&H model) to simulate the dry granular materials flows. Conservation of mass and momentum equations, describing the evolving geometry and the depth averaged velocity distribution, are re-written taking into account the effects of the interstitial pressures and the possible variation of mass along the motion due to erosion/deposition processes. Furthermore, the mechanical behaviour of the debris flow is described by a recently developed rheological law, which allows to take into account the dissipative effects of the grain inelastic collisions and friction, simultaneously acting within a `shear layer', typically at the base of the debris flows. The governing PDEs are solved by applying the finite difference method. The analysis of a documented case is finally carried out.

Characterization of Orbital Debris via Hyper-Velocity Laboratory-Based Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cowardin, Heather; Liou, J.-C.; Anz-Meador, Phillip; Sorge, Marlon; Opiela, John; Fitz-Coy, Norman; Huynh, Tom; Krisko, Paula

2017-01-01

Existing DOD and NASA satellite breakup models are based on a key laboratory test, Satellite Orbital debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT), which has supported many applications and matched on-orbit events involving older satellite designs reasonably well over the years. In order to update and improve these models, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, in collaboration with the Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center, The Aerospace Corporation, and the University of Florida, replicated a hypervelocity impact using a mock-up satellite, DebriSat, in controlled laboratory conditions. DebriSat is representative of present-day LEO satellites, built with modern spacecraft materials and construction techniques. Fragments down to 2 mm in size will be characterized by their physical and derived properties. A subset of fragments will be further analyzed in laboratory radar and optical facilities to update the existing radar-based NASA Size Estimation Model (SEM) and develop a comparable optical-based SEM. A historical overview of the project, status of the characterization process, and plans for integrating the data into various models will be discussed herein.

Characterization of Orbital Debris via Hyper-Velocity Laboratory-Based Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cowardin, Heather; Liou, J.-C.; Krisko, Paula; Opiela, John; Fitz-Coy, Norman; Sorge, Marlon; Huynh, Tom

2017-01-01

Existing DoD and NASA satellite breakup models are based on a key laboratory test, Satellite Orbital debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT), which has supported many applications and matched on-orbit events involving older satellite designs reasonably well over the years. In order to update and improve these models, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, in collaboration with the Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center, The Aerospace Corporation, and the University of Florida, replicated a hypervelocity impact using a mock-up satellite, DebriSat, in controlled laboratory conditions. DebriSat is representative of present-day LEO satellites, built with modern spacecraft materials and construction techniques. Fragments down to 2 mm in size will be characterized by their physical and derived properties. A subset of fragments will be further analyzed in laboratory radar and optical facilities to update the existing radar-based NASA Size Estimation Model (SEM) and develop a comparable optical-based SEM. A historical overview of the project, status of the characterization process, and plans for integrating the data into various models will be discussed herein.

The pathways of Marine Plastic into the Ocean Garbage Patches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Sebille, E.; England, M. H.; Froyland, G.

2013-12-01

Much of the plastic debris in the near-surface ocean collects in so-called garbage patches where, due to convergence of the surface flow, the debris is trapped for decades to millennia. Here, we use observational data from the Global Drifter Program in a particle-trajectory tracer approach to study the fate of marine debris in the open ocean from coastal regions around the world on interannual to centennial time scales. We find that garbage patches emerge in each of the five subtropical basins. The evolution of each of the five patches is markedly different, however. With the exception of the North Pacific, all patches are much more dispersive than expected from linear ocean circulation theory, suggesting that on centennial time scales the different basins are much better connected than previously thought and that inter-ocean exchanges play a large role in the spreading of marine debris. In order to increase public awareness on this issue of sustainability in the ocean, we have used the methods and data of this study to create a public website at www.adrift.org.au where all interested can investigate the spread of tracer from any and all points on the ocean surface.

Studies of Planet Formation using a Hybrid N-body + Planetesimal Code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenyon, Scott J.; Bromley, Benjamin C.; Salamon, Michael (Technical Monitor)

2005-01-01

The goal of our proposal was to use a hybrid multi-annulus planetesimal/n-body code to examine the planetesimal theory, one of the two main theories of planet formation. We developed this code to follow the evolution of numerous 1 m to 1 km planetesimals as they collide, merge, and grow into full-fledged planets. Our goal was to apply the code to several well-posed, topical problems in planet formation and to derive observational consequences of the models. We planned to construct detailed models to address two fundamental issues: 1) icy planets - models for icy planet formation will demonstrate how the physical properties of debris disks, including the Kuiper Belt in our solar system, depend on initial conditions and input physics; and 2) terrestrial planets - calculations following the evolution of 1-10 km planetesimals into Earth-mass planets and rings of dust will provide a better understanding of how terrestrial planets form and interact with their environment. During the past year, we made progress on each issue. Papers published in 2004 are summarized. Summaries of work to be completed during the first half of 2005 and work planned for the second half of 2005 are included.

Probability and volume of potential postwildfire debris flows in the 2010 Fourmile burn area, Boulder County, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ruddy, Barbara C.; Stevens, Michael R.; Verdin, Kristine

2010-01-01

This report presents a preliminary emergency assessment of the debris-flow hazards from drainage basins burned by the Fourmile Creek fire in Boulder County, Colorado, in 2010. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and volumes of debris flows for selected drainage basins. Data for the models include burn severity, rainfall total and intensity for a 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainstorm, and topographic and soil property characteristics. Several of the selected drainage basins in Fourmile Creek and Gold Run were identified as having probabilities of debris-flow occurrence greater than 60 percent, and many more with probabilities greater than 45 percent, in response to the 25-year recurrence, 1-hour rainfall. None of the Fourmile Canyon Creek drainage basins selected had probabilities greater than 45 percent. Throughout the Gold Run area and the Fourmile Creek area upstream from Gold Run, the higher probabilities tend to be in the basins with southerly aspects (southeast, south, and southwest slopes). Many basins along the perimeter of the fire area were identified as having low probability of occurrence of debris flow. Volume of debris flows predicted from drainage basins with probabilities of occurrence greater than 60 percent ranged from 1,200 to 9,400 m3. The predicted moderately high probabilities and some of the larger volumes responses predicted for the modeled storm indicate a potential for substantial debris-flow effects to buildings, roads, bridges, culverts, and reservoirs located both within these drainages and immediately downstream from the burned area. However, even small debris flows that affect structures at the basin outlets could cause considerable damage.

The Predicted Growth of the Low Earth Orbit Space Debris Environment: An Assessment of Future Risk for Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krisko, Paula H.

2007-01-01

Space debris is a worldwide-recognized issue concerning the safety of commercial, military, and exploration spacecraft. The space debris environment includes both naturally occuring meteoroids and objects in Earth orbit that are generated by human activity, termed orbital debris. Space agencies around the world are addressing the dangers of debris collisions to both crewed and robotic spacecraft. In the United States, the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Johnson Space Center leads the effort to categorize debris, predict its growth, and formulate mitigation policy for the environment from low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). This paper presents recent results derived from the NASA long-term debris environment model, LEGEND. It includes the revised NASA sodium potassium droplet model, newly corrected for a factor of two over-estimation of the droplet population. The study indicates a LEO environment that is already highly collisionally active among orbital debris larger than 1 cm in size. Most of the modeled collision events are non-catastrophic (i.e., They lead to a cratering of the target, but no large scale fragmentation.). But they are potentially mission-ending, and take place between impactors smaller than 10 cm and targets larger than 10 cm. Given the small size of the impactor these events would likely be undetectable by present-day measurement means. The activity continues into the future as would be expected. Impact rates of about four per year are predicted by the current study within the next 30 years, with the majority of targets being abandoned intacts (spent upper stages and spacecraft). Still, operational spacecraft do show a small collisional activity, one that increases over time as the small fragment population increases.

Morphometric Analysis and Delineation of Debris Flow Susceptible Alluvial Fans in the Philippines after the 2015 Koppu and Melor Typhoon Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llanes, F.; Rodolfo, K. S.; Lagmay, A. M. A.

2017-12-01

On 17 October 2015, Typhoon Koppu brought heavy rains that generated debris flows in the municipalities of Bongabon, Laur, and Gabaldon in Nueva Ecija province. Roughly two months later on 15 December, Typhoon Melor made landfall in the province of Oriental Mindoro, bringing heavy rains that also generated debris flows in multiple watersheds in the municipality of Baco. Despite not being in the direct path of the typhoon, debris flows were triggered in Bongabon, Gabaldon, and Laur, whereas old debris-flow deposits were remobilized in Dingalan, a coastal town in Aurora province adjacent to Gabaldon. During the onslaught of Typhoons Koppu and Melor, landslides of rock, soil, and debris converged in the mountain stream networks where they were remobilized into debris flows that destroyed numerous houses and structures situated on alluvial fans. Satellite images before and after the two typhoons were compared to calculate the deposit extents on the fans and to determine the number and extent of landslides on each watershed. The affected alluvial fans were investigated in the field to determine whether they are debris flow or flood-prone, using a set of established geomorphic and sedimentary characteristics that differentiate deposits of the two processes. Melton ratio, watershed length, and other significant morphometric indices were calculated and analyzed for the affected watersheds using geographic information system (GIS) and high-resolution digital terrain models. A GIS model that can delineate debris flow susceptible alluvial fans in the Philippines was derived and developed from the analysis. Limitations of the model are discussed, as well as recommendations to improve and refine it.

NEW DEBRIS DISKS IN NEARBY YOUNG MOVING GROUPS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moór, A.; Kóspál, Á.; Ábrahám, P.

A significant fraction of nearby young moving group members harbor circumstellar debris dust disks. Due to their proximity and youth, these disks are attractive targets for studying the early evolution of debris dust and planetesimal belts. Here we present 70 and 160 μ m observations of 31 systems in the β Pic moving group, and in the Tucana–Horologium, Columba, Carina, and Argus associations, using the Herschel Space Observatory . None of these stars were observed at far-infrared wavelengths before. Our Herschel measurements were complemented by photometry from the WISE satellite for the whole sample, and by submillimeter/millimeter continuum data formore » one source, HD 48370. We identified six stars with infrared excess, four of them are new discoveries. By combining our new findings with results from the literature, we examined the incidence and general characteristics of debris disks around Sun-like members of the selected groups. With their dust temperatures of <45 K the newly identified disks around HD 38397, HD 48370, HD 160305, and BD-20 951 represent the coldest population within this sample. For HD 38397 and HD 48370, the emission is resolved in the 70 μ m Photodetector Array Camera and Spectrograph images, the estimated radius of these disks is ∼90 au. Together with the well-known disk around HD 61005, these three systems represent the highest mass end of the known debris disk population around young G-type members of the selected groups. In terms of dust content, they resemble the hypothesized debris disk of the ancient solar system.« less

Evaluation of observed blast loading effects on NIF x-ray diagnostic collimators.

PubMed

Masters, N D; Fisher, A; Kalantar, D; Prasad, R; Stölken, J S; Wlodarczyk, C

2014-11-01

We present the "debris wind" models used to estimate the impulsive load to which x-ray diagnostics and other structures are subject during National Ignition Facility experiments. These models are used as part of the engineering design process. Isotropic models, based on simulations or simplified "expanding shell" models, are augmented by debris wind multipliers to account for directional anisotropy. We present improvements to these multipliers based on measurements of the permanent deflections of diagnostic components: 4× for the polar direction and 2× within the equatorial plane-the latter relaxing the previous heuristic debris wind multiplier.

A Case Study on Hydrodynamic Modeling and Design Improvement Evaluation to Manage Debris and Sediment Interference at a Water Intake Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crissman, B. J.; Cunderlik, J. M.; Wong, R. P. L.; Pinero, A.

2017-12-01

Waterford 3 nuclear plant, located in Killona, Louisiana, provides approximately 10% of the state's electricity need. Located along the south bank of the Mississippi River, two miles upstream of the Bonnet Carre Spillway, the plant's single pass through cooling system continuously draws up to 1,000,000 gpm water from the river. On behalf of Entergy Louisiana, the project team evaluated options to improve the aging water intake structure with chronic debris and sediment entrainment issues. The highly complex and dynamic environment in the river coupled with regulatory constraints limited available improvement options: varying river stages allow debris to overflow the intake structure, but the maximum new wall height is restricted to minimize aesthetic intrusion and alteration to levee tie-back; bow waves push debris into the downstream intake wall, but the wall needs to maintain an opening to flush debris out from the intake structure; the river delivers significant sediment load, but any proposed intake structure cannot significantly alter existing bathymetry; EPA Clean Water Act Section 316(b) limited maximum velocity at the intake structure to 0.5 fps for entrainment prevention. To expedite alternative evaluation while providing sufficient data to inform management decision, instead of developing physical models, the project team developed a two-tier approach utilizing the TELEMAC hydrodynamic program to prepare screening analysis in 2D modeling and final evaluation in 3D modeling. The model was built upon the USACE ERDC ADH model, calibrated with river gauge data and peer reviewed by ERDC. TELEMAC, developed by EDF, provides novel features for modeling improvement options, including the recommended design concept, which is a hydraulically optimized intake geometry configured to maintain uniform intake flow while streamlining river flowline for debris and sediment deflection. The design includes submerged inlets with upstream and downstream walls to block floating debris and bed load movement, large intake screens to reduce velocity, and a log-boom debris deflection system that floats with the river level. This project demonstrated a time and cost efficient approach to develop reliable solutions and hydrodynamic data describing design alternatives performance.

Effects of Orbital Lifetime Reduction on the Long-Term Earth Satellite Population as Modeled by EVOLVE 4.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krisko, Paula H.; Opiela, John N.; Liou, Jer-Chyi; Anz-Meador, Phillip D.; Theall, Jeffrey R.

1999-01-01

The latest update of the NASA orbital debris environment model, EVOLVE 4.0, has been used to study the effect of various proposed debris mitigation measures, including the NASA 25-year guideline. EVOLVE 4.0, which includes updates of the NASA breakup, solar activity, and the orbit propagator models, a GEO analysis option, and non-fragmentation debris source models, allows for the statistical modeling and predicted growth of the particle population >1 mm in characteristic length in LEO and GEO orbits. The initial implementation of this &odel has been to study the sensitivity of the overall LEO debris environment to mitigation measures designed to limit the lifetime of intact objects in LEO orbits. The mitigation measures test matrix for this study included several commonly accepted testing schemes, i.e., the variance of the maximum LEO lifetime from 10 to 50 years, the date of the initial implementation of this policy, the shut off of all explosions at some specified date, and the inclusion of disposal orbits. All are timely studies in that all scenarios have been suggested by researchers and satellite operators as options for the removal of debris from LEO orbits.

The application of numerical debris flow modelling for the generation of physical vulnerability curves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luna, B. Quan; Blahut, J.; van Westen, C. J.; Sterlacchini, S.; van Asch, T. W. J.; Akbas, S. O.

2011-07-01

For a quantitative assessment of debris flow risk, it is essential to consider not only the hazardous process itself but also to perform an analysis of its consequences. This should include the estimation of the expected monetary losses as the product of the hazard with a given magnitude and the vulnerability of the elements exposed. A quantifiable integrated approach of both hazard and vulnerability is becoming a required practice in risk reduction management. This study aims at developing physical vulnerability curves for debris flows through the use of a dynamic run-out model. Dynamic run-out models for debris flows are able to calculate physical outputs (extension, depths, velocities, impact pressures) and to determine the zones where the elements at risk could suffer an impact. These results can then be applied to consequence analyses and risk calculations. On 13 July 2008, after more than two days of intense rainfall, several debris and mud flows were released in the central part of the Valtellina Valley (Lombardy Region, Northern Italy). One of the largest debris flows events occurred in a village called Selvetta. The debris flow event was reconstructed after extensive field work and interviews with local inhabitants and civil protection teams. The Selvetta event was modelled with the FLO-2D program, an Eulerian formulation with a finite differences numerical scheme that requires the specification of an input hydrograph. The internal stresses are isotropic and the basal shear stresses are calculated using a quadratic model. The behaviour and run-out of the flow was reconstructed. The significance of calculated values of the flow depth, velocity, and pressure were investigated in terms of the resulting damage to the affected buildings. The physical damage was quantified for each affected structure within the context of physical vulnerability, which was calculated as the ratio between the monetary loss and the reconstruction value. Three different empirical vulnerability curves were obtained, which are functions of debris flow depth, impact pressure, and kinematic viscosity, respectively. A quantitative approach to estimate the vulnerability of an exposed element to a debris flow which can be independent of the temporal occurrence of the hazard event is presented.

Progress toward the determination of correct classification rates in fire debris analysis.

PubMed

Waddell, Erin E; Song, Emma T; Rinke, Caitlin N; Williams, Mary R; Sigman, Michael E

2013-07-01

Principal components analysis (PCA), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), and quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA) were used to develop a multistep classification procedure for determining the presence of ignitable liquid residue in fire debris and assigning any ignitable liquid residue present into the classes defined under the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) E 1618-10 standard method. A multistep classification procedure was tested by cross-validation based on model data sets comprised of the time-averaged mass spectra (also referred to as total ion spectra) of commercial ignitable liquids and pyrolysis products from common building materials and household furnishings (referred to simply as substrates). Fire debris samples from laboratory-scale and field test burns were also used to test the model. The optimal model's true-positive rate was 81.3% for cross-validation samples and 70.9% for fire debris samples. The false-positive rate was 9.9% for cross-validation samples and 8.9% for fire debris samples. © 2013 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Inventory and transport of plastic debris in the Laurentian Great Lakes.

PubMed

Hoffman, Matthew J; Hittinger, Eric

2017-02-15

Plastic pollution in the world's oceans has received much attention, but there has been increasing concern about the high concentrations of plastic debris in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Using census data and methodologies used to study ocean debris we derive a first estimate of 9887 metric tonnes per year of plastic debris entering the Great Lakes. These estimates are translated into population-dependent particle inputs which are advected using currents from a hydrodynamic model to map the spatial distribution of plastic debris in the Great Lakes. Model results compare favorably with previously published sampling data. The samples are used to calibrate the model to derive surface microplastic mass estimates of 0.0211 metric tonnes in Lake Superior, 1.44 metric tonnes in Huron, and 4.41 metric tonnes in Erie. These results have many applications, including informing cleanup efforts, helping target pollution prevention, and understanding the inter-state or international flows of plastic pollution. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Debris flow run-out simulation and analysis using a dynamic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melo, Raquel; van Asch, Theo; Zêzere, José L.

2018-02-01

Only two months after a huge forest fire occurred in the upper part of a valley located in central Portugal, several debris flows were triggered by intense rainfall. The event caused infrastructural and economic damage, although no lives were lost. The present research aims to simulate the run-out of two debris flows that occurred during the event as well as to calculate via back-analysis the rheological parameters and the excess rain involved. Thus, a dynamic model was used, which integrates surface runoff, concentrated erosion along the channels, propagation and deposition of flow material. Afterwards, the model was validated using 32 debris flows triggered during the same event that were not considered for calibration. The rheological and entrainment parameters obtained for the most accurate simulation were then used to perform three scenarios of debris flow run-out on the basin scale. The results were confronted with the existing buildings exposed in the study area and the worst-case scenario showed a potential inundation that may affect 345 buildings. In addition, six streams where debris flow occurred in the past and caused material damage and loss of lives were identified.

[Research progress in post-fire debris flow].

PubMed

Di, Xue-ying; Tao, Yu-zhu

2013-08-01

The occurrence of the secondary disasters of forest fire has significant impacts on the environment quality and human health and safety. Post-fire debris flow is one of the most hazardous secondary disasters of forest fire. To understand the occurrence conditions of post-fire debris flow and to master its occurrence situation are the critical elements in post-fire hazard assessment. From the viewpoints of vegetation, precipitation threshold and debris flow material sources, this paper elaborated the impacts of forest fire on the debris flow, analyzed the geologic and geomorphic conditions, precipitation and slope condition that caused the post-fire debris flow as well as the primary mechanisms of debris-flow initiation caused by shallow landslide or surface runoff, and reviewed the research progress in the prediction and forecast of post-fire debris flow and the related control measures. In the future research, four aspects to be focused on were proposed, i. e., the quantification of the relationships between the fire behaviors and environmental factors and the post-fire debris flow, the quantitative research on the post-fire debris flow initiation and movement processes, the mechanistic model of post-fire debris flow, and the rapid and efficient control countermeasures of post-fire debris flow.

76 FR 4056 - Airworthiness Directives; PIAGGIO AERO INDUSTRIES S.p.A Model PIAGGIO P-180 Airplanes

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-24

... presence of dirt/debris. Take note of dirt/debris found and of its location (which bay). 7. Inspect the... work performed: [YES] [NO] Step 6--debris/dirt in the belly If YES, specify amount and location: [YES...

Four-way coupling of a three-dimensional debris flow solver to a Lagrangian Particle Simulation: method and first results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Boetticher, Albrecht; Rickenmann, Dieter; McArdell, Brian; Kirchner, James W.

2017-04-01

Debris flows are dense flowing mixtures of water, clay, silt, sand and coarser particles. They are a common natural hazard in mountain regions and frequently cause severe damage. Modeling debris flows to design protection measures is still challenging due to the complex interactions within the inhomogeneous material mixture, and the sensitivity of the flow process to the channel geometry. The open-source, OpenFOAM-based finite-volume debris flow model debrisInterMixing (von Boetticher et al, 2016) defines rheology parameters based on the material properties of the debris flow mixture to reduce the number of free model parameters. As a simplification in this first model version, gravel was treated as a Coulomb-viscoplastic fluid, neglecting grain-to-grain collisions and the coupling between the coarser gravel grains and the interstitial fluid. Here we present an extension of that solver, accounting for the particle-to-particle and particle-to-boundary contacts with a Lagrangian Particle Simulation composed of spherical grains and a user-defined grain size distribution. The grain collisions of the Lagrangian particles add granular flow behavior to the finite-volume simulation of the continuous phases. The two-way coupling exchanges momentum between the phase-averaged flow in a finite volume cell, and among all individual particles contained in that cell, allowing the user to choose from a number of different drag models. The momentum exchange is implemented in the momentum equation and in the pressure equation (ensuring continuity) of the so-called PISO-loop, resulting in a stable 4-way coupling (particle-to-particle, particle-to-boundary, particle-to-fluid and fluid-to-particle) that represents the granular and viscous flow behavior of debris flow material. We will present simulations that illustrate the relative benefits and drawbacks of explicitly representing grain collisions, compared to the original debrisInterMixing solver.

Orbital debris and meteoroid population as estimated from LDEF impact data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Jingchang; Kessler, Donald J.

1995-01-01

Examination of LDEF's various surfaces shows numerous craters and holes due to hypervelocity impacts of meteoroids and man-made orbital debris. In this paper, the crater numbers as reported by Humes have been analyzed in an effort to understand the orbital debris and natural meteoroid environment in LEO. To determine the fraction of man-made to natural impacts, the side to top ratio of impacts and results of the Chemistry of Micrometeoroids Experiment are used. For craters in the 100 micron to 500 micron size range, about 25 percent to 30 percent of the impacts on the forward-facing surfaces and about 10 percent of the impacts on the trailing surfaces were estimated due to man-made orbital debris. A technique has been developed to convert crater numbers to particle fluxes, taking the fact into account that the distributions of impact velocity and incidence angle vary over the different surfaces of LDEF, as well as the ratio of the surface area flux to the cross-sectional area flux. Applying this technique, Humes' data concerning craters with limiting lip diameters of 100 micron, 200 micron and 500 micron have been converted into orbital debris and meteoroid fluxes ranging from about 20 micron to 200 micron particle diameter. The results exhibit good agreement with orbital debris model and meteoroid model. The converted meteoroid flux is slightly larger than Grun's model (by 40 to 70 percent). The converted orbital debris flux is slightly lower than Kessler's model for particle diameter smaller than about 30 micron and slightly larger than the model for particle diameter larger than about 40 micron. Taking also into account the IDE data point at about 0.8 micron particle diameter, it suggests to change the slope log (flux) versus log (diameter) of orbital debris flux in the 1 micron to 100 micron particle diameter range from 2.5 to 1.9.

GhostNet marine debris survey in the Gulf of Alaska--satellite guidance and aircraft observations.

PubMed

Pichel, William G; Veenstra, Timothy S; Churnside, James H; Arabini, Elena; Friedman, Karen S; Foley, David G; Brainard, Russell E; Kiefer, Dale; Ogle, Simeon; Clemente-Colón, Pablo; Li, Xiaofeng

2012-01-01

Marine debris, particularly debris that is composed of lost or abandoned fishing gear, is recognized as a serious threat to marine life, vessels, and coral reefs. The goal of the GhostNet project is the detection of derelict nets at sea through the use of weather and ocean models, drifting buoys and satellite imagery to locate convergent areas where nets are likely to collect, followed by airborne surveys with trained observers and remote sensing instruments to spot individual derelict nets. These components of GhostNet were first tested together in the field during a 14-day marine debris survey of the Gulf of Alaska in July and August 2003. Model, buoy, and satellite data were used in flight planning. A manned aircraft survey with visible and IR cameras and a LIDAR instrument located debris in the targeted locations, including 102 individual pieces of debris of anthropogenic or terrestrial origin. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Columbia Debris Hangar, Shuttle Launch Director Mike Leinbach (left) talks to the media about activities that have taken place since the Columbia accident on Feb. 1, 2003. Behind him is a model of the left wing of the orbiter. STS-107 debris recovery and reconstruction operations are winding down. To date, nearly 84,000 pieces of debris have been recovered and sent to KSC. That represents about 38 percent of the dry weight of Columbia, equaling almost 85,000 pounds.

NASA Image and Video Library

2003-06-04

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Columbia Debris Hangar, Shuttle Launch Director Mike Leinbach (left) talks to the media about activities that have taken place since the Columbia accident on Feb. 1, 2003. Behind him is a model of the left wing of the orbiter. STS-107 debris recovery and reconstruction operations are winding down. To date, nearly 84,000 pieces of debris have been recovered and sent to KSC. That represents about 38 percent of the dry weight of Columbia, equaling almost 85,000 pounds.

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Columbia Debris Hangar, Shuttle Launch Director Mike Leinbach talks to the media about activities that have taken place since the Columbia accident on Feb. 1, 2003. Behind him is a model of the left wing of the orbiter. STS-107 debris recovery and reconstruction operations are winding down. To date, nearly 84,000 pieces of debris have been recovered and sent to KSC. That represents about 38 percent of the dry weight of Columbia, equaling almost 85,000 pounds.

NASA Image and Video Library

2003-06-04

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - In the Columbia Debris Hangar, Shuttle Launch Director Mike Leinbach talks to the media about activities that have taken place since the Columbia accident on Feb. 1, 2003. Behind him is a model of the left wing of the orbiter. STS-107 debris recovery and reconstruction operations are winding down. To date, nearly 84,000 pieces of debris have been recovered and sent to KSC. That represents about 38 percent of the dry weight of Columbia, equaling almost 85,000 pounds.

Postwildfire debris-flow hazard assessment of the area burned by the 2013 West Fork Fire Complex, southwestern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdin, Kristine L.; Dupree, Jean A.; Stevens, Michael R.

2013-01-01

This report presents a preliminary emergency assessment of the debris-flow hazards from drainage basins burned by the 2013 West Fork Fire Complex near South Fork in southwestern Colorado. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence, potential volume of debris flows, and the combined debris-flow hazard ranking along the drainage network within and just downstream from the burned area, and to estimate the same for 54 drainage basins of interest within the perimeter of the burned area. Input data for the debris-flow models included topographic variables, soil characteristics, burn severity, and rainfall totals and intensities for a (1) 2-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 2-year storm; (2) 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 10-year storm; and (3) 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 25-year storm. Estimated debris-flow probabilities at the pour points of the 54 drainage basins of interest ranged from less than 1 to 65 percent in response to the 2-year storm; from 1 to 77 percent in response to the 10-year storm; and from 1 to 83 percent in response to the 25-year storm. Twelve of the 54 drainage basins of interest have a 30-percent probability or greater of producing a debris flow in response to the 25-year storm. Estimated debris-flow volumes for all rainfalls modeled range from a low of 2,400 cubic meters to a high of greater than 100,000 cubic meters. Estimated debris-flow volumes increase with basin size and distance along the drainage network, but some smaller drainages also were predicted to produce substantial debris flows. One of the 54 drainage basins of interest had the highest combined hazard ranking, while 9 other basins had the second highest combined hazard ranking. Of these 10 basins with the 2 highest combined hazard rankings, 7 basins had predicted debris-flow volumes exceeding 100,000 cubic meters, while 3 had predicted probabilities of debris flows exceeding 60 percent. The 10 basins with high combined hazard ranking include 3 tributaries in the headwaters of Trout Creek, four tributaries to the West Fork San Juan River, Hope Creek draining toward a county road on the eastern edge of the burn, Lake Fork draining to U.S. Highway 160, and Leopard Creek on the northern edge of the burn. The probabilities and volumes for the modeled storms indicate a potential for debris-flow impacts on structures, reservoirs, roads, bridges, and culverts located within and immediately downstream from the burned area. U.S. Highway 160, on the eastern edge of the burn area, also is susceptible to impacts from debris flows.

Triggering conditions and mobility of debris flows associated to complex earthflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malet, J.-P.; Laigle, D.; Remaître, A.; Maquaire, O.

2005-03-01

Landslides on black marl slopes of the French Alps are, in most cases, complex catastrophic failures in which the initial structural slides transform into slow-moving earthflows. Under specific hydrological conditions, these earthflows can transform into debris flows. Due to their sediment volume and their high mobility, debris flow induced by landslides are far much dangerous than these resulting from continuous erosive processes. A fundamental point to correctly delineate the area exposed to debris flows on the alluvial fans is therefore to understand why and how some earthflows transform into debris flow while most of them stabilize. In this paper, a case of transformation from earthflow to debris flow is presented and analysed. An approach combining geomorphology, hydrology, geotechnics and rheology is adopted to model the debris flow initiation (failure stage) and its runout (postfailure stage). Using the Super-Sauze earthflow (Alpes-de-Haute-Provence, France) as a case study, the objective is to characterize the hydrological and mechanical conditions leading to debris flow initiation in such cohesive material. Results show a very good agreement between the observed runout distances and these calculated using the debris flow modeling code Cemagref 1-D. The deposit thickness in the depositional area and the velocities of the debris flows are also well reproduced. Furthermore, a dynamic slope stability analysis shows that conditions in the debris source area under average pore water pressures and moisture contents are close to failure. A small excess of water can therefore initiate failure. Seepage analysis is used to estimate the volume of debris that can be released for several hydroclimatic conditions. The failed volumes are then introduced in the Cemagref 1-D runout code to propose debris flow hazard scenarios. Results show that clayey earthflow can transform under 5-year return period rainfall conditions into 1-km runout debris flow of volumes ranging between 2000 to 5000 m 3. Slope failures induced by 25-year return period rainfall can trigger large debris flow events (30,000 to 50,000 m 3) that can reach the alluvial fan and cause damage.

The Last Gasp of Gas Giant Planet Formation: A Spitzer Study of the 5 Myr Old Cluster NGC 2362

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Currie, Thayne; Lada, Charles J.; Plavchan, Peter; Robitaille, Thomas P.; Irwin, Jonathan; Kenyon, Scott J.

2009-06-01

Expanding upon the Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) survey from Dahm & Hillenbrand, we describe Spitzer IRAC and Multiband Imaging Photometer for Spitzer observations of the populous, 5 Myr old open cluster NGC 2362. We analyze the mid-IR colors of cluster members and compared their spectral energy distributions (SEDs) to star+circumstellar disk models to constrain the disk morphologies and evolutionary states. Early/intermediate-type confirmed/candidate cluster members either have photospheric mid-IR emission or weak, optically thin IR excess emission at λ >= 24 μm consistent with debris disks. Few late-type, solar/subsolar-mass stars have primordial disks. The disk population around late-type stars is dominated by disks with inner holes (canonical "transition disks") and "homologously depleted" disks. Both types of disks represent an intermediate stage between primordial disks and debris disks. Thus, in agreement with previous results, we find that multiple paths for the primordial-to-debris disk transition exist. Because these "evolved primordial disks" greatly outnumber primordial disks, our results undermine standard arguments in favor of a lsim105 yr timescale for the transition based on data from Taurus-Auriga. Because the typical transition timescale is far longer than 105 yr, these data also appear to rule out standard ultraviolet photoevaporation scenarios as the primary mechanism to explain the transition. Combining our data with other Spitzer surveys, we investigate the evolution of debris disks around high/intermediate-mass stars and investigate timescales for giant planet formation. Consistent with Currie et al., the luminosity of 24 μm emission in debris disks due to planet formation peaks at ≈10-20 Myr. If the gas and dust in disks evolve on similar timescales, the formation timescale for gas giant planets surrounding early-type, high/intermediate-mass (gsim1.4 M sun) stars is likely 1-5 Myr. Most solar/subsolar-mass stars detected by Spitzer have SEDs that indicate their disks may be actively leaving the primordial disk phase. Thus, gas giant planet formation may also occur by ~5 Myr around solar/subsolar-mass stars as well.

Mapping debris-flow hazard in Honolulu using a DEM

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellen, Stephen D.; Mark, Robert K.; ,

1993-01-01

A method for mapping hazard posed by debris flows has been developed and applied to an area near Honolulu, Hawaii. The method uses studies of past debris flows to characterize sites of initiation, volume at initiation, and volume-change behavior during flow. Digital simulations of debris flows based on these characteristics are then routed through a digital elevation model (DEM) to estimate degree of hazard over the area.

On the debris-level origins of adhesive wear

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aghababaei, Ramin; Warner, Derek H.; Molinari, Jean-François

2017-07-01

Every contacting surface inevitably experiences wear. Predicting the exact amount of material loss due to wear relies on empirical data and cannot be obtained from any physical model. Here, we analyze and quantify wear at the most fundamental level, i.e., wear debris particles. Our simulations show that the asperity junction size dictates the debris volume, revealing the origins of the long-standing hypothesized correlation between the wear volume and the real contact area. No correlation, however, is found between the debris volume and the normal applied force at the debris level. Alternatively, we show that the junction size controls the tangential force and sliding distance such that their product, i.e., the tangential work, is always proportional to the debris volume, with a proportionality constant of 1 over the junction shear strength. This study provides an estimation of the debris volume without any empirical factor, resulting in a wear coefficient of unity at the debris level. Discrepant microscopic and macroscopic wear observations and models are then contextualized on the basis of this understanding. This finding offers a way to characterize the wear volume in atomistic simulations and atomic force microscope wear experiments. It also provides a fundamental basis for predicting the wear coefficient for sliding rough contacts, given the statistics of junction clusters sizes.

On the debris-level origins of adhesive wear.

PubMed

Aghababaei, Ramin; Warner, Derek H; Molinari, Jean-François

2017-07-25

Every contacting surface inevitably experiences wear. Predicting the exact amount of material loss due to wear relies on empirical data and cannot be obtained from any physical model. Here, we analyze and quantify wear at the most fundamental level, i.e., wear debris particles. Our simulations show that the asperity junction size dictates the debris volume, revealing the origins of the long-standing hypothesized correlation between the wear volume and the real contact area. No correlation, however, is found between the debris volume and the normal applied force at the debris level. Alternatively, we show that the junction size controls the tangential force and sliding distance such that their product, i.e., the tangential work, is always proportional to the debris volume, with a proportionality constant of 1 over the junction shear strength. This study provides an estimation of the debris volume without any empirical factor, resulting in a wear coefficient of unity at the debris level. Discrepant microscopic and macroscopic wear observations and models are then contextualized on the basis of this understanding. This finding offers a way to characterize the wear volume in atomistic simulations and atomic force microscope wear experiments. It also provides a fundamental basis for predicting the wear coefficient for sliding rough contacts, given the statistics of junction clusters sizes.

On the debris-level origins of adhesive wear

PubMed Central

Warner, Derek H.; Molinari, Jean-François

2017-01-01

Every contacting surface inevitably experiences wear. Predicting the exact amount of material loss due to wear relies on empirical data and cannot be obtained from any physical model. Here, we analyze and quantify wear at the most fundamental level, i.e., wear debris particles. Our simulations show that the asperity junction size dictates the debris volume, revealing the origins of the long-standing hypothesized correlation between the wear volume and the real contact area. No correlation, however, is found between the debris volume and the normal applied force at the debris level. Alternatively, we show that the junction size controls the tangential force and sliding distance such that their product, i.e., the tangential work, is always proportional to the debris volume, with a proportionality constant of 1 over the junction shear strength. This study provides an estimation of the debris volume without any empirical factor, resulting in a wear coefficient of unity at the debris level. Discrepant microscopic and macroscopic wear observations and models are then contextualized on the basis of this understanding. This finding offers a way to characterize the wear volume in atomistic simulations and atomic force microscope wear experiments. It also provides a fundamental basis for predicting the wear coefficient for sliding rough contacts, given the statistics of junction clusters sizes. PMID:28696291

Vulnerability of Space Station Freedom Modules: A Study of the Effects of Module Perforation on Crew and Equipment. Volume 2; Analytical Modeling of Internal Debris Cloud Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schonberg, William P.; Davenport, Quint

1995-01-01

In this part of the report, a first-principles based model is developed to predict the overpressure and temperature effects of a perforating orbital debris particle impact within a pressurized habitable module. While the effects of a perforating debris particles on crew and equipment can be severe, only a limited number of empirical studies focusing on space vehicles have been performed to date. Traditionally, crew loss or incapacitation due to a perforating impact has primarily been of interest to military organizations and as such have focused on military vehicles and systems. The module wall considered in this study is initially assumed to be a standard Whippletype dual-wall system in which the outer wall protects the module and its inhabitants by disrupting impacting particles. The model is developed in a way such that it sequentially characterizes the phenomena comprising the impact event, including the initial impact, the creation and motion of a debris cloud within the dual-wall system, the impact of the debris cloud on the inner wall, the creation and motion of the debris cloud that enters the module interior, and the effects of the debris cloud within the module on module pressure and temperature levels. This is accomplished through the application of elementary shock physics and thermodynamic theory.

The origins of Late Quaternary debris avalanche and debris flow deposits from Cofre de Perote volcano, México

USGS Publications Warehouse

Diaz-Castellon, Rodolfo; Hubbard, Bernard E.; Carrasco-Nunez, Gerardo; Rodríguez-Vargas, José Luis

2012-01-01

Cofre de Perote volcano is a compound, shield-like volcano located in the northeastern Trans-Mexican volcanic belt. Large debris avalanche and lahar deposits are associated with the evolution of Cofre. The two best preserved of these debris-avalanche and debris-flow deposits are the ∼42 ka “Los Pescados debris flow” deposit and the ∼11–13 ka “Xico avalanche” deposit, both of which display contrasting morphological and textural characteristics, source materials, origins and emplacement environments. Laboratory X-ray diffraction and visible-infrared reflectance spectroscopy were used to identify the most abundant clay, sulfate, ferric-iron, and silica minerals in the deposits, which were either related to hydrothermal alteration or chemical weathering processes. Cloud-free Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) remote sensing imagery, supporting EO-1 Hyperion image spectra, and field ground truth samples were used to map the mineralogy and distribution of hydrothermally altered rocks on the modern summit of Cofre de Perote. The results were then compared to minerals identified in the two debris-avalanche and debris-flow deposits in order to assess possible source materials and origins for the two deposits.The older Los Pescados debris-flow deposit contains mostly halloysite and hydrous silica minerals, which match the dominant mineralogy of soils and weathered volcanic deposit in the surrounding flanks of Cofre de Perote. Its source materials were most likely derived from initially noncohesive or clay-poor flows, which subsequently bulked with clay-rich valley soils and alluvium in a manner similar to lahars from Nevado del Ruiz in 1985, but on a larger scale. The younger Xico avalanche deposit contains abundant smectite, jarosite, kaolinite, gypsum, and mixed-layered illite/smectite, which are either definitely or most likely of hydrothermal alteration origin. Smectite in particular appears to be the most abundant and spectrally dominant mineral in summit ground truth samples, ASTER mapping results, Xico avalanche deposit, and an older (pre-Xico avalanche) deposit derived from collapse(s) of ancestral Cofre de Perote edifice. However, both Xico avalanche and Los Pescados debris flow deposits show some evidence of secondary, postemplacement weathering and induration, which is evident by the presence of gibbsite, and hydroxyl interlayered minerals, in addition to recently formed halloysite and hydrous silica (i.e., indurating) cements. Field-based, visible infrared image spectroscopy (VIS/IR) spectral measurements offer the possibility of distinguishing primary minerals of hydrothermal alteration origin in debris-avalanche and debris-flow deposits from those produced either by in situ chemical weathering or bulked from weathered source materials.

Atmospheric Energy Deposition Modeling and Inference for Varied Meteoroid Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, Lorien; Mathias, Donovan; Stokan, Edward; Brown, Peter

2018-01-01

Asteroids populations are highly diverse, ranging from coherent monoliths to loosely-bound rubble piles with a broad range of material and compositional properties. These different structures and properties could significantly affect how an asteroid breaks up and deposits energy in the atmosphere, and how much ground damage may occur from resulting blast waves. We have previously developed a fragment-cloud model (FCM) for assessing the atmospheric breakup and energy deposition of asteroids striking Earth. The approach represents ranges of breakup characteristics by combining progressive fragmentation with releases of variable fractions of debris and larger discrete fragments. In this work, we have extended the FCM to also represent asteroids with varied initial structures, such as rubble piles or fractured bodies. We have used the extended FCM to model the Chelyabinsk, Benesov, Kosice, and Tagish Lake meteors, and have obtained excellent matches to energy deposition profiles derived from their light curves. These matches provide validation for the FCM approach, help guide further model refinements, and enable inferences about pre-entry structure and breakup behavior. Results highlight differences in the amount of small debris vs. discrete fragments in matching the various flare characteristics of each meteor. The Chelyabinsk flares were best represented using relatively high debris fractions, while Kosice and Benesov cases were more notably driven by their discrete fragmentation characteristics, perhaps indicating more cohesive initial structures. Tagish Lake exhibited a combination of these characteristics, with lower-debris fragmentation at high altitudes followed by sudden disintegration into small debris in the lower flares. Results from all cases also suggest that lower ablation coefficients and debris spread rates may be more appropriate for the way in which debris clouds are represented in FCM, offering an avenue for future model refinement.

Global analysis of anthropogenic debris ingestion by sea turtles.

PubMed

Schuyler, Qamar; Hardesty, Britta Denise; Wilcox, Chris; Townsend, Kathy

2014-02-01

Ingestion of marine debris can have lethal and sublethal effects on sea turtles and other wildlife. Although researchers have reported on ingestion of anthropogenic debris by marine turtles and implied incidences of debris ingestion have increased over time, there has not been a global synthesis of the phenomenon since 1985. Thus, we analyzed 37 studies published from 1985 to 2012 that report on data collected from before 1900 through 2011. Specifically, we investigated whether ingestion prevalence has changed over time, what types of debris are most commonly ingested, the geographic distribution of debris ingestion by marine turtles relative to global debris distribution, and which species and life-history stages are most likely to ingest debris. The probability of green (Chelonia mydas) and leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) ingesting debris increased significantly over time, and plastic was the most commonly ingested debris. Turtles in nearly all regions studied ingest debris, but the probability of ingestion was not related to modeled debris densities. Furthermore, smaller, oceanic-stage turtles were more likely to ingest debris than coastal foragers, whereas carnivorous species were less likely to ingest debris than herbivores or gelatinovores. Our results indicate oceanic leatherback turtles and green turtles are at the greatest risk of both lethal and sublethal effects from ingested marine debris. To reduce this risk, anthropogenic debris must be managed at a global level. © 2013 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Society for Conservation Biology.

Characterization of Debris from the DebriSat Hypervelocity Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rivero, M.; Kleespies, J.; Patankar, K.; Fitz-Coy, N.; Liou, J.-C.; Sorge, M.; Huynh, T.; Opiela, J.; Krisko, P.; Cowardin, H.

2015-01-01

The DebriSat project is an effort by NASA and the DoD to update the standard break-up model for objects in orbit. The DebriSat object, a 56 kg representative LEO satellite, was subjected to a hypervelocity impact in April 2014. For the hypervelocity test, the representative satellite was suspended within a "soft-catch" arena formed by polyurethane foam panels to minimize the interactions between the debris generated from the hypervelocity impact and the metallic walls of the test chamber. After the impact, the foam panels and debris not caught by the panels were collected and shipped to the University of Florida where the project has now advanced to the debris characterization stage. The characterization effort has been divided into debris collection, measurement, and cataloguing. Debris collection and cataloguing involves the retrieval of debris from the foam panels and cataloguing the debris in a database. Debris collection is a three-step process: removal of loose debris fragments from the surface of the foam panels; X-ray imaging to identify/locate debris fragments embedded within the foam panel; extraction of the embedded debris fragments identified during the X-ray imaging process. As debris fragments are collected, they are catalogued into a database specifically designed for this project. Measurement involves determination of size, mass, shape, material, and other physical properties and well as images of the fragment. Cataloguing involves a assigning a unique identifier for each fragment along with the characterization information.

NOAA-USGS Debris-Flow Warning System - Final Report

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2005-01-01

Landslides and debris flows cause loss of life and millions of dollars in property damage annually in the United States (National Research Council, 2004). In an effort to reduce loss of life by debris flows, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operated an experimental debris-flow prediction and warning system in the San Francisco Bay area from 1986 to 1995 that relied on forecasts and measurements of precipitation linked to empirical precipitation thresholds to predict the onset of rainfall-triggered debris flows. Since 1995, there have been substantial improvements in quantifying precipitation estimates and forecasts, development of better models for delineating landslide hazards, and advancements in geographic information technology that allow stronger spatial and temporal linkage between precipitation forecasts and hazard models. Unfortunately, there have also been several debris flows that have caused loss of life and property across the United States. Establishment of debris-flow warning systems in areas where linkages between rainfall amounts and debris-flow occurrence have been identified can help mitigate the hazards posed by these types of landslides. Development of a national warning system can help support the NOAA-USGS goal of issuing timely Warnings of potential debris flows to the affected populace and civil authorities on a broader scale. This document presents the findings and recommendations of a joint NOAA-USGS Task Force that assessed the current state-of-the-art in precipitation forecasting and debris-flow hazard-assessment techniques. This report includes an assessment of the science and resources needed to establish a demonstration debris-flow warning project in recently burned areas of southern California and the necessary scientific advancements and resources associated with expanding such a warning system to unburned areas and, possibly, to a national scope.

Dusty Disks, Diffuse Clouds, and Dim Suns: Galactic Science with the Infrared Spectrograph on the Spitzer Space Telescope

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roellig, T. L.; Watson, D. M.; Uchida, K. I.; Forrest, W. J.; VanCleve, J. E.; Herter, T. L.; Sloan, G. C.; Furlan, E.; Wilson, J. C.; Bernard-Salas, J.

2004-01-01

The Infrared Spectrograph (IRS) on the Spitzer Space Telescope has now been in routine science operations since Dec. 14,2003. The IRS Science Team has used a portion of their guaranteed time to pursue three major science themes in galactic astronomy: the evolution of protostellar disks and debris disks; the composition and evolution of diffuse matter and clouds in the interstellar medium; and the composition and structure of brown dwarfs and low-mass main-sequence stars. We report here on the results from the first five months of IRS observations in these programs. Full IRS Spectra have already been obtained for large samples of YSO/protoplanetary disks in the Taurus and TW Hya associations, and or debris disks around main-sequence stars, in which many aspects of the evolution of planetary systems can be addressed for the first time. As anticipated, the mid-infrared IRS observations of brown dwarfs have yielded important new information about their atmospheres, including the identification of NH3 and measurements of new methane features. This work is based on observations made with the Spitzer Space Telescope, which is operated by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology under NASA contract 1407. Support for this work was provided by NASA's Office of Space Science.

Dusty Disks, Diffuse Clouds, and Dim Suns - Galactic Science with the Infrared Spectrograph on the Spitzer Space Telescope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roellig, T. L.; Watson, D. M.; Uchida, K. I.; Forrest, W. J.; Van Cleve, J. E.; Herter, T. L.; Sloan, G. C.; Furlan, E.; Wilson, J. C.; Bernard-Salas, J.; Saumon, D.; Leggett, S.; Chen, C.; Kemper, F.; Hartmann, L.; Marley, M.; Cushing, M.; Mainzer, A. K.; Kirkpatrick, D.; Jura, M.; Houck, J. R.

2004-05-01

The Infrared Spectrograph (IRS) on the Spitzer Space Telescope has now been in routine science operations since Dec. 14, 2003. The IRS Science Team has used a portion of their guaranteed time to pursue three major science themes in galactic astronomy: the evolution of protostellar disks and debris disks; the composition and evolution of diffuse matter and clouds in the interstellar medium; and the composition and structure of brown dwarfs and low-mass main-sequence stars. We report here on the results from the first five months of IRS observations in these programs. Full IRS Spectra have already been obtained for large samples of YSO/protoplanetary disks in the Taurus and TW Hya associations, and of debris disks around main-sequence stars, in which many aspects of the evolution of planetary systems can be addressed for the first time. As anticipated, the mid-infrared IRS observations of brown dwarfs have yielded important new information about their atmospheres, including the identification of NH3 and measurements of new methane features. This work is based on observations made with the Spitzer Space Telescope, which is operated by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology under NASA contract 1407. Support for this work was provided by NASA's Office of Space Science.

76 FR 27865 - Airworthiness Directives; Cessna Aircraft Company Models 150, 152, 170, 172, 175, 177, 180, 182...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-13

... months, whichever occurs first: (1) Visually inspect the pilot and copilot seat rails for dirt and debris... dirt or debris is found, remove the dirt or debris found. (2) Remove the seat from the seat rail. (i...

Analytical Modeling of Pressure Wall Hole Size and Maximum Tip-to-Tip Crack Length for Perforating Normal and Oblique Orbital Debris Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schonberg, William P.; Mohamed, Essam

1997-01-01

This report presents the results of a study whose objective was to develop first-principles-based models of hole size and maximum tip-to-tip crack length for a spacecraft module pressure wall that has been perforated in an orbital debris particle impact. The hole size and crack length models are developed by sequentially characterizing the phenomena comprising the orbital debris impact event, including the initial impact, the creation and motion of a debris cloud within the dual-wall system, the impact of the debris cloud on the pressure wall, the deformation of the pressure wall due to debris cloud impact loading prior to crack formation, pressure wall crack initiation, propagation, and arrest, and finally pressure wall deformation following crack initiation and growth. The model development has been accomplished through the application of elementary shock physics and thermodynamic theory, as well as the principles of mass, momentum, and energy conservation. The predictions of the model developed herein are compared against the predictions of empirically-based equations for hole diameters and maximum tip-to-tip crack length for three International Space Station wall configurations. The ISS wall systems considered are the baseline U.S. Lab Cylinder, the enhanced U.S. Lab Cylinder, and the U.S. Lab Endcone. The empirical predictor equations were derived from experimentally obtained hole diameters and crack length data. The original model predictions did not compare favorably with the experimental data, especially for cases in which pressure wall petalling did not occur. Several modifications were made to the original model to bring its predictions closer in line with the experimental results. Following the adjustment of several empirical constants, the predictions of the modified analytical model were in much closer agreement with the experimental results.

Debris flow initiation by runoff in a recently burned basin: Is grain-by-grain sediment bulking or en masse failure to blame?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGuire, Luke A.; Rengers, Francis K.; Kean, Jason W.; Staley, Dennis M.

2017-07-01

Postwildfire debris flows are frequently triggered by runoff following high-intensity rainfall, but the physical mechanisms by which water-dominated flows transition to debris flows are poorly understood relative to debris flow initiation from shallow landslides. In this study, we combined a numerical model with high-resolution hydrologic and geomorphic data sets to test two different hypotheses for debris flow initiation during a rainfall event that produced numerous debris flows within a recently burned drainage basin. Based on simulations, large volumes of sediment eroded from the hillslopes were redeposited within the channel network throughout the storm, leading to the initiation of numerous debris flows as a result of the mass failure of sediment dams that built up within the channel. More generally, results provide a quantitative framework for assessing the potential of runoff-generated debris flows based on sediment supply and hydrologic conditions.

Debris flow initiation by runoff in a recently burned basin: Is grain-by-grain sediment bulking or en masse failure to blame?

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGuire, Luke; Rengers, Francis K.; Kean, Jason W.; Staley, Dennis M.

2017-01-01

Postwildfire debris flows are frequently triggered by runoff following high-intensity rainfall, but the physical mechanisms by which water-dominated flows transition to debris flows are poorly understood relative to debris flow initiation from shallow landslides. In this study, we combined a numerical model with high-resolution hydrologic and geomorphic data sets to test two different hypotheses for debris flow initiation during a rainfall event that produced numerous debris flows within a recently burned drainage basin. Based on simulations, large volumes of sediment eroded from the hillslopes were redeposited within the channel network throughout the storm, leading to the initiation of numerous debris flows as a result of the mass failure of sediment dams that built up within the channel. More generally, results provide a quantitative framework for assessing the potential of runoff-generated debris flows based on sediment supply and hydrologic conditions.

Highlights of Recent Research Activities at the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, J - C.

2017-01-01

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) was established at the NASA Johnson Space Center in 1979. The ODPO has initiated and led major orbital debris research activities over the past 38 years, including developing the first set of the NASA orbital debris mitigation requirements in 1995 and supporting the establishment of the U.S. Government Orbital Debris Mitigation Standard Practices in 2001. This paper is an overview of the recent ODPO research activities, ranging from ground-based and in-situ measurements, to laboratory tests, and to engineering and long-term orbital debris environment modeling. These activities highlight the ODPO's commitment to continuously improve the orbital debris environment definition to better protect current and future space missions from the low Earth orbit to the geosynchronous Earth orbit regions.

Risk assessment based on a combination of historical analysis, a detailed field study and numerical modeling on the alluvial fan Gadeinerbach as a basis for a risk management concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moser, M.

2009-04-01

The catchment Gadeinerbach in the District of Lungau/Salzburg/Austria is prone to debris flows. Large debris flow events dates back from the years 1934 and 1953. In the upper catchment large mass movements represent debris sources. A field study shows the debris potential and the catchment looks like a "sleeping torrential giant". To carry out mitigation measures a detailed risk management concept, based on a risk assessment in combination of historical analysis, field study and numerical modeling on the alluvial fan was conducted. Human activities have partly altered the surface of the alluvial fan Gadeinerbach but nevertheless some important hazard indicators could be found. With the hazard indicators and photo analysis from the large debris flow event 1934 the catchment character could be pointed out. With the help of these historical data sets (hazard indicators, sediment and debris amount...) it is possible to calibrate the provided numerical models and to win useful knowledge over the pro and cons and their application. The results were used to simulate the design event and furthermore to derive mitigation measures. Therefore the most effective protection against debris with a reduction of the high energy level to a lower level under particular energy change in combination with a debris/bedload deposition place has been carried out. Expert opinion, the study of historical data and a field work is in addition to numerical simulation techniques very necessary for the work in the field of natural hazard management.

Woody debris along an upland chronosequence in boreal Manitoba and its impact on long-term carbon storage

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manies, K.L.; Harden, J.W.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; O'Neill, K. P.

2005-01-01

This study investigated the role of fire-killed woody debris as a source of soil carbon in black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP) stands in Manitoba, Canada. We measured the amount of standing dead and downed woody debris along an upland chronosequence, including wood partially and completely covered by moss growth. Such woody debris is rarely included in measurement protocols and composed up to 26% of the total amount of woody debris in older stands, suggesting that it is important to measure all types of woody debris in ecosystems where burial by organic matter is possible. Based on these data and existing net primary production (NPP) values, we used a mass-balance model to assess the potential impact of fire-killed wood on long-term carbon storage at this site. The amount of carbon stored in deeper soil organic layers, which persists over millennia, was used to represent this long-term carbon. We estimate that between 10% and 60% of the deep-soil carbon is derived from wood biomass. Sensitivity analyses suggest that this estimate is most affected by the fire return interval, decay rate of wood, amount of NPP, and decay rate of the char (postfire) carbon pool. Landscape variations in these terms could account for large differences in deep-soil carbon. The model was less sensitive to fire consumption rates and to rates at which standing dead becomes woody debris. All model runs, however, suggest that woody debris plays an important role in long-term carbon storage for this area. ?? 2005 NRC Canada.

Empirical assessment of debris flow risk on a regional scale in Yunnan province, southwestern China.

PubMed

Liu, Xilin; Yue, Zhong Qi; Tham, Lesliw George; Lee, Chack Fan

2002-08-01

Adopting the definition suggested by the United Nations, a risk model for regional debris flow assessment is presented. Risk is defined as the product of hazard and vulnerability, both of which are necessary for evaluation. A Multiple-Factor Composite Assessment Model is developed for quantifying regional debris flow hazard by taking into account eight variables that contribute to debris flow magnitude and its frequency of occurrence. Vulnerability is a measure of the potential total losses. On a regional scale, it can be measured by the fixed asset, gross domestic product, land resources, population density, as well as the age, education, and wealth of the inhabitants. A nonlinear power-function assessment model that accounts for these indexes is developed. As a case study, the model is applied to compute the hazard, vulnerability and risk for each prefecture of the Yunnan province in southwestern China.

Amplification of postwildfire peak flow by debris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kean, J. W.; McGuire, L. A.; Rengers, F. K.; Smith, J. B.; Staley, D. M.

2016-08-01

In burned steeplands, the peak depth and discharge of postwildfire runoff can substantially increase from the addition of debris. Yet methods to estimate the increase over water flow are lacking. We quantified the potential amplification of peak stage and discharge using video observations of postwildfire runoff, compiled data on postwildfire peak flow (Qp), and a physically based model. Comparison of flood and debris flow data with similar distributions in drainage area (A) and rainfall intensity (I) showed that the median runoff coefficient (C = Qp/AI) of debris flows is 50 times greater than that of floods. The striking increase in Qp can be explained using a fully predictive model that describes the additional flow resistance caused by the emergence of coarse-grained surge fronts. The model provides estimates of the amplification of peak depth, discharge, and shear stress needed for assessing postwildfire hazards and constraining models of bedrock incision.

Amplification of postwildfire peak flow by debris

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kean, Jason W.; McGuire, Luke; Rengers, Francis K.; Smith, Joel B.; Staley, Dennis M.

2016-01-01

In burned steeplands, the peak depth and discharge of postwildfire runoff can substantially increase from the addition of debris. Yet methods to estimate the increase over water flow are lacking. We quantified the potential amplification of peak stage and discharge using video observations of postwildfire runoff, compiled data on postwildfire peak flow (Qp), and a physically based model. Comparison of flood and debris flow data with similar distributions in drainage area (A) and rainfall intensity (I) showed that the median runoff coefficient (C = Qp/AI) of debris flows is 50 times greater than that of floods. The striking increase in Qp can be explained using a fully predictive model that describes the additional flow resistance caused by the emergence of coarse-grained surge fronts. The model provides estimates of the amplification of peak depth, discharge, and shear stress needed for assessing postwildfire hazards and constraining models of bedrock incision.

Orbital debris and near-Earth environmental management: A chronology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Portree, David S. F.; Loftus, Joseph P., Jr.

1993-01-01

This chronology covers the 32-year history of orbital debris and near-Earth environmental concerns. It tracks near-Earth environmental hazard creation, research, observation, experimentation, management, mitigation, protection, and policy-making, with emphasis on the orbital debris problem. Included are the Project West Ford experiments; Soviet ASAT tests and U.S. Delta upper stage explosions; the Ariane V16 explosion, U.N. treaties pertinent to near-Earth environmental problems, the PARCS tests; space nuclear power issues, the SPS/orbital debris link; Space Shuttle and space station orbital debris issues; the Solwind ASAT test; milestones in theory and modeling the Cosmos 954, Salyut 7, and Skylab reentries; the orbital debris/meteoroid research link; detection system development; orbital debris shielding development; popular culture and orbital debris; Solar Max results; LDEF results; orbital debris issues peculiar to geosynchronous orbit, including reboost policies and the stable plane; seminal papers, reports, and studies; the increasing effects of space activities on astronomy; and growing international awareness of the near-Earth environment.

Semi-automatic recognition of marine debris on beaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Zhenpeng; Shi, Huahong; Mei, Xuefei; Dai, Zhijun; Li, Daoji

2016-05-01

An increasing amount of anthropogenic marine debris is pervading the earth’s environmental systems, resulting in an enormous threat to living organisms. Additionally, the large amount of marine debris around the world has been investigated mostly through tedious manual methods. Therefore, we propose the use of a new technique, light detection and ranging (LIDAR), for the semi-automatic recognition of marine debris on a beach because of its substantially more efficient role in comparison with other more laborious methods. Our results revealed that LIDAR should be used for the classification of marine debris into plastic, paper, cloth and metal. Additionally, we reconstructed a 3-dimensional model of different types of debris on a beach with a high validity of debris revivification using LIDAR-based individual separation. These findings demonstrate that the availability of this new technique enables detailed observations to be made of debris on a large beach that was previously not possible. It is strongly suggested that LIDAR could be implemented as an appropriate monitoring tool for marine debris by global researchers and governments.

Geologic, geomorphic, and meteorological aspects of debris flows triggered by Hurricanes Frances and Ivan during September 2004 in the Southern Appalachian Mountains of Macon County, North Carolina (southeastern USA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wooten, R.M.; Gillon, K.A.; Witt, A.C.; Latham, R.S.; Douglas, T.J.; Bauer, J.B.; Fuemmeler, S.J.; Lee, L.G.

2008-01-01

In September 2004, rain from the remnants of Hurricanes Frances and Ivan triggered at least 155 landslides in the Blue Ridge Mountains of North Carolina. At least 33 debris flows occurred in Macon County, causing 5 deaths, destroying 16 homes, and damaging infrastructure. We mapped debris flows and debris deposits using a light-detecting and ranging digital elevation model, remote imagery and field studies integrated in a geographic information system. Evidence of past debris flows was found at all recent debris flow sites. Orographic rainfall enhancement along topographic escarpments influenced debris flow frequency at higher elevations. A possible trigger for the Wayah and fatal Peeks Creek debris flows was a spiral rain band within Ivan that moved across the area with short duration rainfall rates of 150-230 mm/h. Intersecting bedrock structures in polydeformed metamorphic rock influence the formation of catchments within structural-geomorphic domains where debris flows originate. ?? 2007 Springer-Verlag.

On the hyperbolicity of a two-fluid model for debris flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mineo, C.; Torrisi, M.

2010-05-01

We consider the system of partial differential equations associated with the mathematical model for debris flows proposed by E.B. Pitman and L. Le (Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 363, 1573-1601, 2005) and analyze the problem of the hyperbolicity of the model.

Numerical investigation of debris materials prior to debris flow hazards using satellite images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, N.; Matsushima, T.

2018-05-01

The volume of debris flows occurred in mountainous areas is mainly affected by the volume of debris materials deposited at the valley bottom. Quantitative evaluation of debris materials prior to debris flow hazards is important to predict and prevent hazards. At midnight on 7th August 2010, two catastrophic debris flows were triggered by the torrential rain from two valleys in the northern part of Zhouqu City, NW China, resulting in 1765 fatalities and huge economic losses. In the present study, a depth-integrated particle method is adopted to simulate the debris materials, based on 2.5 m resolution satellite images. In the simulation scheme, the materials are modeled as dry granular solids, and they travel down from the slopes and are deposited at the valley bottom. The spatial distributions of the debris materials are investigated in terms of location, volume and thickness. Simulation results show good agreement with post-disaster satellite images and field observation data. Additionally, the effect of the spatial distributions of the debris materials on subsequent debris flows is also evaluated. It is found that the spatial distributions of the debris materials strongly influence affected area, runout distance and flow discharge. This study might be useful in hazard assessments prior to debris flow hazards by investigating diverse scenarios in which the debris materials are unknown.

Structure of the Iconic Vega Debris Disk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Kate

2015-10-01

Debris structures provide the best means to explore planets down to ice-giant masses in the outer (>5 AU) parts of extrasolar planetary systems. It is thought that the iconic Vega debris disk composes of two separate belts shepherded by unseen planets, similar to the Solar System. We will probe this possibility with SOFIA at 35 microns by: 1.) documenting the structure of the debris with sufficient resolution to distinguish a separate warm belt from the alternative model of dust flowing inward from the outer debris ring; and 2.) testing for traces of dust in its 15-60 AU zone and thus probing the possibility that ice giant planets may be shepherding the debris belts.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rodigas, Timothy J.; Hinz, Philip M.; Malhotra, Renu, E-mail: rodigas@as.arizona.edu

Planets can affect debris disk structure by creating gaps, sharp edges, warps, and other potentially observable signatures. However, there is currently no simple way for observers to deduce a disk-shepherding planet's properties from the observed features of the disk. Here we present a single equation that relates a shepherding planet's maximum mass to the debris ring's observed width in scattered light, along with a procedure to estimate the planet's eccentricity and minimum semimajor axis. We accomplish this by performing dynamical N-body simulations of model systems containing a star, a single planet, and an exterior disk of parent bodies and dustmore » grains to determine the resulting debris disk properties over a wide range of input parameters. We find that the relationship between planet mass and debris disk width is linear, with increasing planet mass producing broader debris rings. We apply our methods to five imaged debris rings to constrain the putative planet masses and orbits in each system. Observers can use our empirically derived equation as a guide for future direct imaging searches for planets in debris disk systems. In the fortuitous case of an imaged planet orbiting interior to an imaged disk, the planet's maximum mass can be estimated independent of atmospheric models.« less

A Comparison of the SOCIT and DebriSat Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ausay, E.; Cornejo, A.; Horn, A.; Palma, K.; Sato, T.; Blake, B.; Pistella, F.; Boyle, C.; Todd, N.; Zimmerman, J.;

Tracking the sources and sinks of local marine debris in Hawai'i.

PubMed

Carson, Henry S; Lamson, Megan R; Nakashima, Davis; Toloumu, Derek; Hafner, Jan; Maximenko, Nikolai; McDermid, Karla J

2013-03-01

Plastic pollution has biological, chemical, and physical effects on marine environments and economic effects on coastal communities. These effects are acute on southeastern Hawai'i Island, where volunteers remove 16 metric tons of debris annually from a 15 km coastline. Although the majority is foreign-origin, a portion is locally-generated. We used floating debris-retention booms in two urban waterways to measure the input of debris from Hilo, the island's largest community, and released wooden drifters in nearby coastal waters to track the fate of that debris. In 205 days, 30 kilograms of debris (73.6% plastic) were retained from two watersheds comprising 10.2% of Hilo's developed land area. Of 851 wooden drifters released offshore of Hilo in four events, 23.3% were recovered locally, 1.4% at distant locations, and 6.5% on other islands. Comparisons with modeled surface currents and wind were mixed, indicating the importance of nearshore and tidal dynamics not included in the model. This study demonstrated that local pollutants can be retained nearby, contribute to the island's debris-accumulation area, and quickly contaminate other islands. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional danger assessment of Debris flow and its engineering mitigation practice in Sichuan-Tibet highway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Pengcheng; Sun, Zhengchao; li, Yong

2017-04-01

Luding-Kangding highway cross the eastern edge of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau where belong to the most deep canyon area of plateau and mountains in western Sichuan with high mountain and steep slope. This area belongs to the intersection among Xianshuihe, Longmenshan and Anninghe fault zones which are best known in Sichuan province. In the region, seismic intensity is with high frequency and strength, new tectonic movement is strong, rock is cracked, there are much loose solid materials. Debris flow disaster is well developed under the multiple effects of the earthquake, strong rainfall and human activity which poses a great threat to the local people's life and property security. So this paper chooses Kangding and LuDing as the study area to do the debris flow hazard assessment through the in-depth analysis of development characteristics and formation mechanism of debris flow. Which can provide important evidence for local disaster assessment and early warning forecast. It also has the important scientific significance and practical value to safeguard the people's life and property safety and the security implementation of the national major project. In this article, occurrence mechanism of debris flow disasters in the study area is explored, factor of evaluation with high impact to debris flow hazards is identified, the database of initial evaluation factors is made by the evaluation unit of basin. The factors with high impact to hazards occurrence are selected by using the stepwise regression method of logistic regression model, at the same time the factors with low impact are eliminated, then the hazard evaluation factor system of debris flow is determined in the study area. Then every factors of evaluation factor system are quantified, and the weights of all evaluation factors are determined by using the analysis of stepwise regression. The debris flows hazard assessment and regionalization of all the whole study area are achieved eventually after establishing the hazard assessment model. In this paper, regional debris flows hazard assessment method with strong universality and reliable evaluation result is presented. The whole study area is divided into 1674 units by automatically extracting and artificial identification, and then 11 factors are selected as the initial assessment factors of debris flow hazard assessment in the study area. The factors of the evaluation index system are quantified using the method of standardized watershed unit amount ratio. The relationship between debris flow occurrence and each evaluation factor is simulated using logistic regression model. The weights of evaluation factors are determined, and the model of debris flows hazard assessment is established in the study area. Danger assessment result of debris flow was applied in line optimization and engineering disaster reduction of Sichuan-Tibet highway (section of Luding-Kangding).

Predicting Debris-Slide Locations in Northwestern California

Treesearch

Mark E. Reid; Stephen D. Ellen; Dianne L. Brien; Juan de la Fuente; James N. Falls; Billie G. Hicks; Eric C. Johnson

2007-01-01

We tested four topographic models for predicting locations of debris-slide sources: 1) slope; 2) proximity to stream; 3) SHALSTAB with "standard" parameters; and 4) debris-slide-prone landforms, which delineates areas similar to "inner gorge" and "headwall swale" using experience-based rules. These approaches were compared in three diverse...

Formation of Ice-Rich Lobate Debris Aprons Through Regional Icesheet Collapse and Debris-Cover Armoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fastook, J. L.; Head, J. W.; Marchant, D. R.

2011-03-01

We use a flowband model to assess development of lobate debris apron sublimation lag thickness and lateral extent beneath scarps. We obtain estimates of the climate in place as the LDAs were forming during collapse of a larger, regional ice sheet.

The Use 0f AVIRIS Imagery To Assess Clay Mineralogy And Debris-Flow Potential In Cataract Canyon, Utah: A Preliminary Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rudd, Lawrence; Merenyi, Erzsebet

2004-01-01

Worldwide debris flows destroy property and take human lives every year (Costa, 1984). As a result of extensive property damage and loss of life there is a pressing need to go beyond just describing the nature and extent of debris flows as they occur. Most of the research into debris-flow initiation has centered on rainfall, slope angle, and existing debris-flow deposits (Costa and Wieczorek, 1987). The factor of source lithology has been recently addressed by studies in the sedimentary terranes of Grand Canyon (Webb et al., 1996; Griffiths et al., 1996) and on the Colorado Plateau as a whole.3 On the Colorado Plateau shales dominated by kaolinite and illite clays are significantly more likely to be recent producers of debris-flows than are shales in which smectite clays dominate.3 Establishing the location of shales and colluvial deposits containing kaolinite and illite clays in sedimentary terranes on the Colorado Plateau is essential to predicting where debris flows are likely to occur. AVIRIS imagery can be used to distinguish between types of clay minerals (Chabrillat et al., 2001), providing the basis for surface-materials maps. The ultimate product of this study will be a model that can be used to estimate the debris-flow hazard in Cataract Canyon, Utah. This model will be based on GIS overlay analysis of debris-flow initiation factor maps, including surface-materials maps derived from AVIRIS data.

The sagittarius tidal stream and the shape of the galactic stellar halo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newby, Matthew T.

The stellar halo that surrounds our Galaxy contains clues to understanding galaxy formation, cosmology, stellar evolution, and the nature of dark matter. Gravitationally disrupted dwarf galaxies form tidal streams, which roughly trace orbits through the Galactic halo. The Sagittarius (Sgr) dwarf tidal debris is the most dominant of these streams, and its properties place important constraints on the distribution of mass (including dark matter) in the Galaxy. Stars not associated with substructures form the "smooth" component of the stellar halo, the origin of which is still under investigation. Characterizing halo substructures such as the Sgr stream and the smooth halo provides valuable information on the formation history and evolution of our galaxy, and places constraints on cosmological models. This thesis is primarily concerned with characterizing the 3-dimensional stellar densities of the Sgr tidal debris system and the smooth stellar halo, using data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). F turnoff stars are used to infer distances, as they are relatively bright, numerous, and distributed about a single intrinsic brightness (magnitude). The inherent spread in brightnesses of these stars is overcome through the use of the recently-developed technique of statistical photometric parallax, in which the bulk properties of a stellar population are used to create a probability distribution for a given star's distance. This was used to build a spatial density model for the smooth stellar halo and tidal streams. The free parameters in this model are then fit to SDSS data with a maximum likelihood technique, and the parameters are optimized by advanced computational methods. Several computing platforms are used in this study, including the RPI SUR Bluegene and the Milkyway home volunteer computing project. Fits to the Sgr stream in 18 SDSS data stripes were performed, and a continuous density profile is found for the major Sgr stream. The stellar halo is found to be strongly oblate (flattening parameter q=0.53). A catalog of stars consistent with this density profile is produced as a template for matching future disruption models. The results of this analysis favor a description of the Sgr debris system that includes more than one dwarf galaxy progenitor, with the major streams above and below the Galactic disk being separate substructures. Preliminary results for the minor tidal stream characterizations are presented and discussed. Additionally, a more robust characterization of halo turnoff star brightnesses is performed, and it is found that increasing color errors with distance result in a previously unaccounted for incompleteness in star counts as the SDSS magnitude limit is approached. These corrections are currently in the process of being implemented on MilkyWay home.

High-Performance Computer Modeling of the Cosmos-Iridium Collision

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Olivier, S; Cook, K; Fasenfest, B

2009-08-28

This paper describes the application of a new, integrated modeling and simulation framework, encompassing the space situational awareness (SSA) enterprise, to the recent Cosmos-Iridium collision. This framework is based on a flexible, scalable architecture to enable efficient simulation of the current SSA enterprise, and to accommodate future advancements in SSA systems. In particular, the code is designed to take advantage of massively parallel, high-performance computer systems available, for example, at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. We will describe the application of this framework to the recent collision of the Cosmos and Iridium satellites, including (1) detailed hydrodynamic modeling of the satellitemore » collision and resulting debris generation, (2) orbital propagation of the simulated debris and analysis of the increased risk to other satellites (3) calculation of the radar and optical signatures of the simulated debris and modeling of debris detection with space surveillance radar and optical systems (4) determination of simulated debris orbits from modeled space surveillance observations and analysis of the resulting orbital accuracy, (5) comparison of these modeling and simulation results with Space Surveillance Network observations. We will also discuss the use of this integrated modeling and simulation framework to analyze the risks and consequences of future satellite collisions and to assess strategies for mitigating or avoiding future incidents, including the addition of new sensor systems, used in conjunction with the Space Surveillance Network, for improving space situational awareness.« less

Radar Measurements of Small Debris from HUSIR and HAX

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hamilton J.; Blackwell, C.; McSheehy, R.; Juarez, Q.; Anz-Meador, P.

2017-01-01

For many years, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has been collecting measurements of the orbital debris environment from the Haystack Ultra-wideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR) and its auxiliary (HAX). These measurements sample the small debris population in low earth orbit (LEO). This paper will provide an overview of recent observations and highlight trends in selected debris populations. Using the NASA size estimation model, objects with a characteristic size of 1 cm and larger observed from HUSIR will be presented. Also, objects with a characteristic size of 2 cm and larger observed from HAX will be presented.

A deployable mechanism concept for the collection of small-to-medium-size space debris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

St-Onge, David; Sharf, Inna; Sagnières, Luc; Gosselin, Clément

2018-03-01

Current efforts in active debris removal strategies and mission planning focus on removing the largest, most massive debris. It can be argued, however, that small untrackable debris, specifically those smaller than 5 cm in size, also pose a serious threat. In this work, we propose and analyze a mission to sweep the most crowded Low Earth Orbit with a large cupola device to remove small-to-medium-size debris. The cupola consists of a deployable mechanism expanding more than 25 times its storage size to extend a membrane covering its surface. The membrane is sufficiently stiff to capture most small debris and to slow down the medium-size objects, thus accelerating their fall. An overview of the design of a belt-driven rigid-link mechanism proposed to support the collecting cupola surface is presented, based on our previous work. Because of its large size, the cupola will be subject to significant aerodynamic drag; thus, orbit maintenance analysis is carried out using the DTM-2013 atmospheric density model and it predicts feasible requirements. While in operation, the device will also be subject to numerous hyper-velocity impacts which may significantly perturb its orientation from the desired attitude for debris collection. Thus, another important feature of the proposed debris removal device is a distributed array of flywheels mounted on the cupola for reorienting and stabilizing its attitude during the mission. Analysis using a stochastic modeling framework for hyper-velocity impacts demonstrates that three-axes attitude stabilization is achievable with the flywheels array. MASTER-2009 software is employed to provide relevant data for all debris related estimates, including the debris fluxes for the baseline mission design and for assessment of its expected performance. Space debris removal is a high priority for ensuring sustainability of space and continual launch and operation of man-made space assets. This manuscript presents the first analysis of a small-to-medium size debris removal mission, albeit finding it to not be economically viable at the present time.

Quark-nova remnants. I. The leftover debris with applications to SGRs, AXPs, and XDINs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouyed, R.; Leahy, D.; Niebergal, B.

2007-10-01

We explore the formation and evolution of debris ejected around quark stars in the Quark Nova scenario, and the application to Soft Gamma-ray Repeaters (SGRs) and Anomolous X-ray Pulsars (AXPs). If an isolated neutron star explodes as a Quark Nova, an iron-rich shell of degenerate matter forms from its crust. This model can account for many of the observed features of SGRs and AXPs such as: (i) the two types of bursts (giant and regular); (ii) the spin-up and spin-down episodes during and following the bursts with associated increases in dot{P}; (iii) the energetics of the boxing day burst, SGR1806+20; (iv) the presence of an iron line as observed in SGR1900+14; (v) the correlation between the far-infrared and the X-ray fluxes during the bursting episode and the quiescent phase; (vi) the hard X-ray component observed in SGRs during the giant bursts, and (vii) the discrepancy between the ages of SGRs/AXPs and their supernova remnants. We also find a natural evolutionary relationship between SGRs and AXPs in our model which predicts that the youngest SGRs/AXPs are the most likely to exhibit strong bursting. Many features of X-ray Dim Isolated Neutron stars (XDINs) are also accounted for in our model such as, (i) the two-component blackbody spectra; (ii) the absorption lines around 300 eV; and (iii) the excess optical emission. Table 1 is only available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Christine H.; Mittal, Tushar; Kuchner, Marc

During the Spitzer Space Telescope cryogenic mission, Guaranteed Time Observers, Legacy Teams, and General Observers obtained Infrared Spectrograph (IRS) observations of hundreds of debris disk candidates. We calibrated the spectra of 571 candidates, including 64 new IRAS and Multiband Imaging Photometer for Spitzer (MIPS) debris disks candidates, modeled their stellar photospheres, and produced a catalog of excess spectra for unresolved debris disks. For 499 targets with IRS excess but without strong spectral features (and a subset of 420 targets with additional MIPS 70 μm observations), we modeled the IRS (and MIPS data) assuming that the dust thermal emission was well-describedmore » using either a one- or two-temperature blackbody model. We calculated the probability for each model and computed the average probability to select among models. We found that the spectral energy distributions for the majority of objects (∼66%) were better described using a two-temperature model with warm (T {sub gr} ∼ 100-500 K) and cold (T {sub gr} ∼ 50-150 K) dust populations analogous to zodiacal and Kuiper Belt dust, suggesting that planetary systems are common in debris disks and zodiacal dust is common around host stars with ages up to ∼1 Gyr. We found that younger stars generally have disks with larger fractional infrared luminosities and higher grain temperatures and that higher-mass stars have disks with higher grain temperatures. We show that the increasing distance of dust around debris disks is inconsistent with self-stirred disk models, expected if these systems possess planets at 30-150 AU. Finally, we illustrate how observations of debris disks may be used to constrain the radial dependence of material in the minimum mass solar nebula.« less

The HIP 79977 debris disk in polarized light

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engler, N.; Schmid, H. M.; Thalmann, Ch.; Boccaletti, A.; Bazzon, A.; Baruffolo, A.; Beuzit, J. L.; Claudi, R.; Costille, A.; Desidera, S.; Dohlen, K.; Dominik, C.; Feldt, M.; Fusco, T.; Ginski, C.; Gisler, D.; Girard, J. H.; Gratton, R.; Henning, T.; Hubin, N.; Janson, M.; Kasper, M.; Kral, Q.; Langlois, M.; Lagadec, E.; Ménard, F.; Meyer, M. R.; Milli, J.; Mouillet, D.; Olofsson, J.; Pavlov, A.; Pragt, J.; Puget, P.; Quanz, S. P.; Roelfsema, R.; Salasnich, B.; Siebenmorgen, R.; Sissa, E.; Suarez, M.; Szulagyi, J.; Turatto, M.; Udry, S.; Wildi, F.

2017-11-01

Context. Debris disks are observed around 10 to 20% of FGK main-sequence stars as infrared excess emission. They are important signposts for the presence of colliding planetesimals and therefore provide important information about the evolution of planetary systems. Direct imaging of such disks reveals their geometric structure and constrains their dust-particle properties. Aims: We present observations of the known edge-on debris disk around HIP 79977 (HD 146897) taken with the ZIMPOL differential polarimeter of the SPHERE instrument. We measure the observed polarization signal and investigate the diagnostic potential of such data with model simulations. Methods: SPHERE-ZIMPOL polarimetric data of the 15 Myr-old F star HIP 79977 (Upper Sco, 123 pc) were taken in the Very Broad Band (VBB) filter (λc = 735 nm, Δλ = 290 nm) with a spatial resolution of about 25 mas. Imaging polarimetry efficiently suppresses the residual speckle noise from the AO system and provides a differential signal with relatively small systematic measuring uncertainties. We measure the polarization flux along and perpendicular to the disk spine of the highly inclined disk for projected separations between 0.2'' (25 AU) and 1.6'' (200 AU). We perform model calculations for the polarized flux of an optically thin debris disk which are used to determine or constrain the disk parameters of HIP 79977. Results: We measure a polarized flux contrast ratio for the disk of (Fpol)disk/F∗ = (5.5 ± 0.9) × 10-4 in the VBB filter. The surface brightness of the polarized flux reaches a maximum of SBmax = 16.2 mag arcsec-2 at a separation of 0.2''-0.5'' along the disk spine with a maximum surface brightness contrast of 7.64 mag arcsec-2. The polarized flux has a minimum near the star <0.2'' because no or only little polarization is produced by forward or backward scattering in the disk section lying in front of or behind the star. The width of the disk perpendicular to the spine shows a systematic increase in FWHM from 0.1'' (12 AU) to 0.3''-0.5'', when going from a separation of 0.2'' to >1''. This can be explained by a radial blow-out of small grains. The data are modelled as a circular dust belt with a well defined disk inclination I = 85( ± 1.5)° and a radius between r0 = 60 and 90 AU. The radial density dependence is described by (r/r0)α with a steep (positive) power law index α = 5 inside r0 and a more shallow (negative) index α = -2.5 outside r0. The scattering asymmetry factor lies between g = 0.2 and 0.6 (forward scattering) adopting a scattering-angle dependence for the fractional polarization such as that for Rayleigh scattering. Conclusions: Polarimetric imaging with SPHERE-ZIMPOL of the edge-on debris disk around HIP 79977 provides accurate profiles for the polarized flux. Our data are qualitatively very similar to the case of AU Mic and they confirm that edge-on debris disks have a polarization minimum at a position near the star and a maximum near the projected separation of the main debris belt. The comparison of the polarized flux contrast ratio (Fpol)disk/F∗ with the fractional infrared excess provides strong constraints on the scattering albedo of the dust.

Computational methodology to predict satellite system-level effects from impacts of untrackable space debris

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welty, N.; Rudolph, M.; Schäfer, F.; Apeldoorn, J.; Janovsky, R.

2013-07-01

This paper presents a computational methodology to predict the satellite system-level effects resulting from impacts of untrackable space debris particles. This approach seeks to improve on traditional risk assessment practices by looking beyond the structural penetration of the satellite and predicting the physical damage to internal components and the associated functional impairment caused by untrackable debris impacts. The proposed method combines a debris flux model with the Schäfer-Ryan-Lambert ballistic limit equation (BLE), which accounts for the inherent shielding of components positioned behind the spacecraft structure wall. Individual debris particle impact trajectories and component shadowing effects are considered and the failure probabilities of individual satellite components as a function of mission time are calculated. These results are correlated to expected functional impairment using a Boolean logic model of the system functional architecture considering the functional dependencies and redundancies within the system.

Predicted and observed directional dependence of meteoroid/debris impacts on LDEF thermal blankets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drolshagen, Gerhard

1992-06-01

The number of impacts from meteoroids and space debris particles to the various Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) rows is calculated using ESABASE/DEBRIS, a 3-D numerical analysis tool. It is based on the latest environment flux models and includes geometrical and directional effects. A detailed comparison of model predictions and actual observations is made for impacts on the thermal blankets which covered the USCR experiment. Impact features on these blankets were studied intensively in European laboratories and hypervelocity impacts for calibration were performed. The thermal blankets were located on all LDEF rows, except 3, 9, and 12. Because of their uniform composition and thickness, these blankets allow a direct analysis of the directional dependence of impacts and provide a unique test case for the latest meteoroid and debris flux models.

Micrometeoroids and debris on LDEF

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mandeville, Jean-Claude

1993-01-01

Two experiments within the French Cooperative Payload (FRECOPA) and devoted to the detection of cosmic dust were flown on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF). A variety of sensors and collecting devices have made possible the study of impact processes on dedicated sensors and on materials of technological interest. Examination of hypervelocity impact features on these experiments gives valuable information on the size distribution and nature of interplanetary dust particles in low-Earth orbit (LEO), within the 0.5-300 micrometer size range. However no crater smaller than 1.5 microns has been observed, thus suggesting a cut-off in the near Earth particle distribution. Chemical investigation of craters by EDX clearly shows evidence of elements (Na, Mg, Si, S, Ca, and Fe) consistent with cosmic origin. However, remnants of orbital debris have been found in a few craters; this can be the result of particles in eccentric orbits about the Earth and of the 8 deg offset in the orientation of LDEF. Crater size distribution is compared with results from other dust experiments flown on LDEF and with current models. Possible origin and orbital evolution of micrometeoroids is discussed. Use of thin foil detectors for the chemical study of particle remnants looks promising for future experiments.

Emergency Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazards from Basins Burned by the Padua Fire of 2003, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Rupert, Michael G.; Michael, John A.

2004-01-01

Results of a present preliminary assessment of the probability of debris-flow activity and estimates of peak discharges that can potentially be generated by debris flows issuing from basins burned by the Padua Fire of October 2003 in southern California in response to 25-year, 10-year, and 2-year recurrence, 1-hour duration rain storms are presented. The resulting probability maps are based on the application of a logistic multiple-regression model (Cannon and others, 2004) that describes the percent chance of debris-flow production from an individual basin as a function of burned extent, soil properties, basin gradients, and storm rainfall. The resulting peak discharge maps are based on application of a multiple-regression model (Cannon and others, 2004) that can be used to estimate debris-flow peak discharge at a basin outlet as a function of basin gradient, burn extent, and storm rainfall. Probabilities of debris-flow occurrence for the Padua Fire range between 0 and 99% and estimates of debris-flow peak discharges range between 1211 and 6,096 ft3/s (34 to 173 m3/s). These maps are intended to identify those basins that are most prone to the largest debris-flow events and provide information for the preliminary design of mitigation measures and for the planning of evacuation timing and routes.

Experiment study of mud to the moving process influent about viscous debris flow along slope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jun, JiXian; Ying, Liang; Li, Pan Hua; Qiang, OuGuo

2018-01-01

Mud is the main component of viscous debris flow. The physical model experiments of viscous debris flow were carried out through the mixing mud with different density and fixed components of coarse particles. The width, longitudinal movement distance and motion velocity were recorded by video cameras during experiment. Through viscous debris flow physical model experiments, the influence of mud to transverse width, longitudinal movement distance and motion velocity was discussed. The physical model experiment results show that the motion forms change from inviscid particle flow to viscous debris flow and to the whole mass sliding with the increase of mud density; the width and the length along the slope decrease with mud density increasing; the movement process has classified phenomena about viscous debris flow composed by different mud densities: the velocity increases rapidly with time and the change gradient is steady when the density of mud is lower than 1.413g/cm3; the movement process can be divided into two stages when the density of mud is higher than 1.413g/cm3: the movement velocity is lower and the gradient change is small in the initial stage; but in the second stage, the movement velocity increases quickly, and the gradient is higher than the first stage, and with steady value.

Deposition of steeply infalling debris - pebbles, boulders, snowballs, asteroids, comets - around stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, J. C.; Veras, D.; Gänsicke, B. T.

2017-09-01

When Comet Lovejoy plunged into the Sun, and survived, questions arose about the physics of infall of small bodies. [1,2] has already described this infall in detail. However, a more general analysis for any type of star has been missing. [3] generalized previous studies, with specific applications to white dwarfs. High-metallicity pollution is common in white dwarf stars hosting remnant planetary systems. However, they rarely have detectable debris accretion discs, possibly because much of the influx is fast steeply infalling debris in star-grazing orbits, producing a more tenuous signature than a slowly accreting disc. Processes governing such deposition between the Roche radius and photosphere have so far received little attention and we model them here analytically by extending recent work on sun-grazing comets to white dwarf systems. We find that the evolution of cm-to-km size infallers most strongly depends on two combinations of parameters, which effectively measure sublimation rate and binding strength. We then provide an algorithm to determine the fate of infallers for any white dwarf, and apply the algorithm to four limiting combinations of hot versus cool (young/old) white dwarfs with snowy (weak, volatile) versus rocky (strong, refractory) infallers. We find: (i) Total sublimation above the photosphere befalls all small infallers across the entire white dwarf temperature range, the threshold size rising with it and 100× larger for rock than snow. (ii) All very large objects fragment tidally regardless of temperature: for rock, a0 ≽ 105 cm; for snow, a0 ≽ 103 - 3 × 104 cm across all white dwarf cooling ages. (iii) A considerable range of infaller sizes avoids fragmentation and total sublimation, yielding impacts or grazes with cold white dwarfs. This range rapidly narrows with increasing temperature, especially for snowy bodies. Finally, we briefly discuss how the various forms of deposited debris may finally reach the photosphere surface itself.

Area and Elevation Changes of a Debris-Covered Glacier and a Clean-Ice Glacier Between 1952-2013 Using Aerial Images and Structure-from-Motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lardeux, P.; Glasser, N. F.; Holt, T.; Irvine-Fynn, T. D.; Hubbard, B. P.

2015-12-01

Since 1952, the clean-ice Glacier Blanc has retreated twice as fast as the adjacent debris-covered Glacier Noir. Located in the French Alps and separated by only 1 km, both glaciers experience the same climatic conditions, making them ideal to evaluate the impact of debris cover on glacier evolution. We used aerial photographs from 16 acquisitions from 1952 to 2013 to reconstruct and analyze glacier elevation changes using Structure-from-Motion (SfM) techniques. Here, we present the process of developing sub-metric resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) from these aerial photographs. By combining 16 DEMs, we produced a dataset of elevation changes of Glacier Noir and Glacier Blanc, including time-series analysis of lateral and longitudinal profiles, glacier hypsometry and mass balance variation. Our preliminary results indicate that Glacier Noir and Glacier Blanc have both thinned to a similar magnitude, ≤ 20 m, despite a 1 km retreat for Glacier Blanc and only 500 m for Glacier Noir. However, these elevation change reconstructions are hampered by large uncertainties, principally due to the lack of independent camera calibration on the historical imagery. Initial attempts using posteriori correction grids have proven to significantly increase the accuracy of these data. We will present some of the uncertainties and solutions linked to the use of SfM on such a large scale and on such an old dataset. This study demonstrates how SfM can be used to investigate long-term trends in environmental change, allowing glacier monitoring to be up-scaled. It also highlights the need for on-going validation of methods to increase the accuracy and precision of SfM in glaciology. This work is not only advancing our understanding of the role of the debris layer, but will also aid glacial geology more generally with, for example, detailed geomorphological analysis of proglacial terrain and Quaternary sciences with quick and accurate reconstruction of a glacial paleo-environment.

ALMA observations of the multiplanet system 61 Vir: what lies outside super-Earth systems?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marino, S.; Wyatt, M. C.; Kennedy, G. M.; Holland, W.; Matrà, L.; Shannon, A.; Ivison, R. J.

2017-08-01

A decade of surveys has hinted at a possible higher occurrence rate of debris discs in systems hosting low-mass planets. This could be due to common favourable forming conditions for rocky planets close in and planetesimals at large radii. In this paper, we present the first resolved millimetre study of the debris disc in the 4.6 Gyr old multiplanet system 61 Vir, combining Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array and James Clerk Maxwell Telescope data at 0.86 mm. We fit the data using a parametric disc model, finding that the disc of planetesimals extends from 30 au to at least 150 au, with a surface density distribution of millimetre-sized grains with a power-law slope of 0.1^{+1.1}_{-0.8}. We also present a numerical collisional model that can predict the evolution of the surface density of millimetre grains for a given primordial disc, finding that it does not necessarily have the same radial profile as the total mass surface density (as previous studies suggested for the optical depth), with the former being flatter. Finally, we find that if the planetesimal disc was stirred at 150 au by an additional unseen planet, that planet should be more massive than 10 M⊕ and lie between 10 and 20 au. Lower planet masses and semimajor axes down to 4 au are possible for eccentricities ≫0.1.

Comets as a possible source of nanodust in the Solar System cloud and in planetary debris discs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, Ingrid

2017-05-01

Comets, comet-like objects and their fragments are the most plausible source for the dust in both the inner heliosphere and planetary debris discs around other stars. The smallest size of dust particles in debris discs is not known and recent observational results suggest that the size distribution of the dust extends down to sizes of a few nanometres or a few tens of nanometres. In the Solar System, electric field measurements from spacecraft observe events that are explained with high-velocity impacts of nanometre-sized dust. In some planetary debris discs an observed mid- to near-infrared emission supposedly results from hot dust located in the vicinity of the star. And the observed emission is characteristic of dust of sizes a few tens of nanometres. Rosetta observations, on the other hand, provide little information on the presence of nanodust near comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. This article describes why this is not in contradiction to the observations of nanodust in the heliosphere and in planetary debris discs. The direct ejection of nanodust from the nucleus of the comet would not contribute significantly to the observed nanodust fluxes. We discuss a scenario that nanodust forms in the interplanetary dust cloud through the high-velocity collision process in the interplanetary medium for which the production rates are highest near the Sun. Likewise, fragmentation by collisions occurs near the star in planetary debris discs. The collisional fragmentation process in the inner Solar System occurs at similar velocities to those of the collisional evolution in the interstellar medium. A question for future studies is whether there is a common magic size of the smallest collision fragments and what determines this size. This article is part of the themed issue 'Cometary science after Rosetta'.

Emergency Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazards from Basins Burned by the Piru, Simi, and Verdale Fires of 2003, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Rupert, Michael G.; Michael, John A.

2003-01-01

These maps present preliminary assessments of the probability of debris-flow activity and estimates of peak discharges that can potentially be generated by debris-flows issuing from basins burned by the Piru, Simi and Verdale Fires of October 2003 in southern California in response to the 25-year, 10-year, and 2-year 1-hour rain storms. The probability maps are based on the application of a logistic multiple regression model that describes the percent chance of debris-flow production from an individual basin as a function of burned extent, soil properties, basin gradients and storm rainfall. The peak discharge maps are based on application of a multiple-regression model that can be used to estimate debris-flow peak discharge at a basin outlet as a function of basin gradient, burn extent, and storm rainfall. Probabilities of debris-flow occurrence for the Piru Fire range between 2 and 94% and estimates of debris flow peak discharges range between 1,200 and 6,640 ft3/s (34 to 188 m3/s). Basins burned by the Simi Fire show probabilities for debris-flow occurrence between 1 and 98%, and peak discharge estimates between 1,130 and 6,180 ft3/s (32 and 175 m3/s). The probabilities for debris-flow activity calculated for the Verdale Fire range from negligible values to 13%. Peak discharges were not estimated for this fire because of these low probabilities. These maps are intended to identify those basins that are most prone to the largest debris-flow events and provide information for the preliminary design of mitigation measures and for the planning of evacuation timing and routes.

NASA's Optical Measurement Program 2014

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cowardin, H.; Lederer, S. M.; Stansbery, G.; Seitzer, P.; Buckalew, B.; Abercromby, K.; Barker, E.

2014-01-01

The Optical Measurements Group (OMG) within the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) addresses U.S. National Space Policy goals by monitoring and characterizing debris. Since 2001, the OMG has used the Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) at Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO) in Chile for general orbital debris surveys. The 0.6-m Schmidt MODEST provides calibrated astronomical data of GEO targets, both catalogued and uncatalogued debris, with excellent image quality. The data are utilized by the ODPO modeling group and are included in the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) v. 3.0. MODEST and the CTIO/SMARTS (Small and Moderate Aperture Research Telescope System) 0.9 m are both employed to acquire filter photometry data as well as synchronously observe targets in selected optical filters. Obtaining data synchronously yields data for material composition studies as well as longer orbital arc data on the same target without time delay or bias from a rotating, tumbling, or spinning target. Observations of GEO orbital debris using the twin 6.5-m Magellan telescopes at Las Campanas Observatory in Chile for deep imaging (Baade) and spectroscopic data (Clay) began in 2011. Through the data acquired on Baade, debris has been detected that reaches approx. 3 magnitudes fainter than detections with MODEST, while the spectral data from Clay provide better resolved information used in material characterization analyses. To better characterize and model optical data, the Optical Measurements Center (OMC) at NASA/JSC has been in operation since 2005, resulting in a database of comparison laboratory data. The OMC is designed to emulate illumination conditions in space using equipment and techniques that parallel telescopic observations and sourcetarget- sensor orientations. Lastly, the OMG is building the Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (MCAT) at Ascension Island. The 1.3-m telescope is designed to observe GEO and LEO targets, using a modified Ritchey-Chrétien configuration on a double horseshoe equatorial mount to allow tracking objects at LEO rates through the dome's keyhole at zenith. Through the data collection techniques employed at these unique facilities, NASA's ODPO has developed a multifaceted approach to characterize the orbital debris risk to satellites in various altitudes and provide insight leading toward material characterization of debris via photometric and spectroscopic measurements. Ultimately, the data are used in conjunction with in-situ and radar measurements to provide accurate data for models of our space environment and for facilitating spacecraft risk assessment.

Improvements to NASA's Debris Assessment Software

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Opiela, J.; Johnson, Nicholas L.

2007-01-01

NASA's Debris Assessment Software (DAS) has been substantially revised and expanded. DAS is designed to assist NASA programs in performing orbital debris assessments, as described in NASA s Guidelines and Assessment Procedures for Limiting Orbital Debris. The extensive upgrade of DAS was undertaken to reflect changes in the debris mitigation guidelines, to incorporate recommendations from DAS users, and to take advantage of recent software capabilities for greater user utility. DAS 2.0 includes an updated environment model and enhanced orbital propagators and reentry-survivability models. The ORDEM96 debris environment model has been replaced by ORDEM2000 in DAS 2.0, which is also designed to accept anticipated revisions to the environment definition. Numerous upgrades have also been applied to the assessment of human casualty potential due to reentering debris. Routines derived from the Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool, Version 6 (ORSAT 6), determine which objects are assessed to survive reentry, and the resulting risk of human casualty is calculated directly based upon the orbital inclination and a future world population database. When evaluating reentry risks, the user may enter up to 200 unique hardware components for each launched object, in up to four nested levels. This last feature allows the software to more accurately model components that are exposed below the initial breakup altitude. The new DAS 2.0 provides an updated set of tools for users to assess their mission s compliance with the NASA Safety Standard and does so with a clear and easy-to-understand interface. The new native Microsoft Windows graphical user interface (GUI) is a vast improvement over the previous DOS-based interface. In the new version, functions are more-clearly laid out, and the GUI includes the standard Windows-style Help functions. The underlying routines within the DAS code are also improved.

Characterization of Oribtal Debris via Hyper-Velocity Ground-Based Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cowardin, H.

2015-01-01

Existing DoD and NASA satellite breakup models are based on a key laboratory-based test, Satellite Orbital debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT), which has supported many applications and matched on-orbit events involving older satellite designs reasonably well over the years. In order to update and improve the break-up models and the NASA Size Estimation Model (SEM) for events involving more modern satellite designs, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has worked in collaboration with the University of Florida to replicate a hypervelocity impact using a satellite built with modern-day spacecraft materials and construction techniques. The spacecraft, called DebriSat, was intended to be a representative of modern LEO satellites and all major designs decisions were reviewed and approved by subject matter experts at Aerospace Corporation. DebriSat is composed of 7 major subsystems including attitude determination and control system (ADCS), command and data handling (C&DH), electrical power system (EPS), payload, propulsion, telemetry tracking and command (TT&C), and thermal management. To reduce cost, most components are emulated based on existing design of flight hardware and fabricated with the same materials. All fragments down to 2 mm is size will be characterized via material, size, shape, bulk density, and the associated data will be stored in a database for multiple users to access. Laboratory radar and optical measurements will be performed on a subset of fragments to provide a better understanding of the data products from orbital debris acquired from ground-based radars and telescopes. The resulting data analysis from DebriSat will be used to update break-up models and develop the first optical SEM in conjunction with updates into the current NASA SEM. The characterization of the fragmentation will be discussed in the subsequent presentation.

Improving transferability strategies for debris flow susceptibility assessment: Application to the Saponara and Itala catchments (Messina, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cama, M.; Lombardo, L.; Conoscenti, C.; Rotigliano, E.

2017-07-01

Debris flows can be described as rapid gravity-induced mass movements controlled by topography that are usually triggered as a consequence of storm rainfalls. One of the problems when dealing with debris flow recognition is that the eroded surface is usually very shallow and it can be masked by vegetation or fast weathering as early as one-two years after a landslide has occurred. For this reason, even areas that are highly susceptible to debris flow might suffer of a lack of reliable landslide inventories. However, these inventories are necessary for susceptibility assessment. Model transferability, which is based on calibrating a susceptibility model in a training area in order to predict the distribution of debris flows in a target area, might provide an efficient solution to dealing with this limit. However, when applying a transferability procedure, a key point is the optimal selection of the predictors to be included for calibrating the model in the source area. In this paper, the issue of optimal factor selection is analysed by comparing the predictive performances obtained following three different factor selection criteria. The study includes: i) a test of the similarity between the source and the target areas; ii) the calibration of the susceptibility model in the (training) source area, using different criteria for the selection of the predictors; iii) the validation of the models, both at the source (self-validation, through random partition) and at the target (transferring, through spatial partition) areas. The debris flow susceptibility is evaluated here using binary logistic regression through a R-scripted based procedure. Two separate study areas were selected in the Messina province (southern Italy) in its Ionian (Itala catchment) and Tyrrhenian sides (Saponara catchment), each hit by a severe debris flow event (in 2009 and 2011, respectively). The investigation attested that the best fitting model in the calibration areas resulted poorly performing in predicting the landslides of the test target area. At the same time, the susceptibility models calibrated with an optimal set of covariates in the source area allowed us to produce a robust and accurate prediction image for the debris flows activated in the Saponara catchment in 2011, exploiting only the data known after the Itala-2009 event.

The Space Debris Environment for the ISS Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Theall, Jeff; Liou, Jer-Chyi; Matney, Mark; Kessler, Don

2001-01-01

With thirty-five planned missions over the next five years, the International Space Station (ISS) will be the focus for manned space activity. At least 6 different vehicles will transport crew and supplies to and from the nominally 400 km, 51.6 degree orbit. When completed, the ISS will be the largest space structure ever assembled and hence the largest target for space debris. Recent work at the Johnson Space Center has focused on updating the existing space debris models. The Orbital Debris Engineering Model, has been restructured to take advantage of state of the art desktop computing capability and revised with recent measurements from Haystack and Goldstone radars, additional analysis of LDEF and STS impacts, and the most recent SSN catalog. The new model also contains the capability to extrapolate the current environment in time to the year 2030. A revised meteoroid model based on the work of Divine has also been developed, and is called the JSC Meteoroid Model. The new model defines flux on the target per unit angle per unit speed, and for Earth orbit, includes the meteor showers. This paper quantifies the space debris environment for the ISS orbit from natural and anthropogenic sources. Particle flux and velocity distributions as functions of size and angle are be given for particles 10 microns and larger for altitudes from 350 to 450 km. The environment is projected forward in time until 2030.

On the Detection and Characterization of Polluted White Dwarfs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steele, Amy; Debes, John H.; Deming, Drake

2017-06-01

There is evidence of circumstellar material around main sequence, giant, and white dwarf stars. What happens to this material after the main sequence? With this work, we focus on the characterization of the material around WD 1145+017. The goals are to monitor the white dwarf—which has a transiting, disintegrating planetesimal and determine the composition of the evaporated material for that same white dwarf by looking at high-resolution spectra. We also present preliminary results of follow-up photometric observations of known polluted WDs. If rocky bodies survive red giant branch evolution, then the material raining down on a WD atmosphere is a direct probe of main sequence cosmochemistry. If rocky bodies do not survive the evolution, then this informs the degree of post-main-sequence processing. These case studies will provide the community with further insight about debris disk modeling, the degree of post-main-sequence processing of circumstellar material, and the composition of a disintegrating planetesimal.

Modeling an Ice-rich Lobate Debris Apron in Deuteronilus Mensae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fastook, J. L.; Head, J. W.; Madeleine, J.-B.; Forget, F.; Marchant, D.

2010-03-01

Models help interpret observed glacial deposits and test formation scenarios. We examine a lobate debris apron recently proven to contain pure water ice. Two hypotheses are tested: alcove-only and collapse from a larger ice sheet driven by a GCM.

Catastrophic precipitation-triggered lahar at Casita volcano, Nicaragua: Occurrence, bulking and transformation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scott, K.M.; Vallance, J.W.; Kerle, N.; Macias, J.L.; Strauch, W.; Devoli, G.

2005-01-01

A catastrophic lahar began on 30 October 1998, as hurricane precipitation triggered a small flank collapse of Casita volcano, a complex and probably dormant stratovolcano. The initial rockslide-debris avalanche evolved on the flank to yield a watery debris flood with a sediment concentration less than 60 per cent by volume at the base of the volcano. Within 2-5 km, however, the watery flow entrained (bulked) enough sediment to transform entirely to a debris flow. The debris flow, 6 km downstream and 1??2 km wide and 3 to 6 m deep, killed 2500 people, nearly the entire populations of the communities of El Porvenir and Rolando Rodriguez. These 'new towns' were developed in a prehistoric lahar pathway: at least three flows of similar size since 8330 14C years BP are documented by stratigraphy in the same 30-degree sector. Travel time between perception of the flow and destruction of the towns was only 2??5-3??0 minutes. The evolution of the flow wave occurred with hydraulic continuity and without pause or any extraordinary addition of water. The precipitation trigger of the Casita lahar emphasizes the nee d, in volcano hazard assessments, for including the potential for non-eruption-related collapse lahars with the more predictable potential of their syneruption analogues. The flow behaviour emphasizes that volcano collapses can yield not only volcanic debris avalanches with restricted runouts, but also mobile lahars that enlarge by bulking as they flow. Volumes and hence inundation areas of collapse-runout lahars can increase greatly beyond their sources: the volume of the Casita lahar bulked to at least 2??6 times the contributing volume of the flank collapse and 4??2 times that of the debris flood. At least 78 per cent of the debris flow matrix (sediment < -1??0??; 2 mm) was entrained during flow. Copyright c 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Seeing through the Canopy: Relationship between Coarse Woody Debris and Forest Structure measured by Airborne Lidar in the Brazilian Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scaranello, M. A., Sr.; Keller, M. M.; dos-Santos, M. N.; Longo, M.; Pinagé, E. R.; Leitold, V.

2016-12-01

Coarse woody debris is an important but infrequently quantified carbon pool in tropical forests. Based on studies at 12 sites spread across the Brazilian Amazon, we quantified coarse woody debris stocks in intact forests and forests affected by different intensities of degradation by logging and/or fire. Measurement were made in-situ and for the first time field measurements of coarse woody debris were related to structural metrics derived from airborne lidar. Using the line-intercept method we established 84 transects for sampling fallen coarse woody debris and associated inventory plots for sampling standing dead wood in intact, conventional logging, reduced impact logging, burned and burned after logging forests. Overall mean and standard deviation of total coarse woody debris were 50.0 Mg ha-1 and 26.4 Mg ha-1 respectively. Forest degradation increased coarse woody debris stocks compared to intact forests by a factor of 1.7 in reduced impact logging forests and up to 3-fold in burned forests, in a side-by-side comparison of nearby areas. The ratio between coarse woody debris and biomass increased linearly with number of degradation events (R²: 0.67, p<0.01). Individual lidar-derived structural variables strongly correlated with coarse woody debris in intact and reduced impact logging forests: the 5th percentile of last returns for in intact forests (R²: 0.78, p<0.01) and forest gap area, mapped using lidar-derived canopy height model, for reduced impact logging forests (R²: 0.63, p<0.01). Individual gap area also played a weak but significant role in determining coarse woody debris in burned forests (R2: 0.21, p<0.05), but with contrasting trend. Both degradation-specific and general multiple models using lidar-derived variables were good predictor of coarse woody debris stocks in different degradation levels in the Brazilian Amazon. The strong relation of coarse woody debris with lidar derived structural variables suggests an approach for quantifying infrequently measured coarse woody debris over large areas.

Analyzing costs of space debris mitigation methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiedemann, C.; Krag, H.; Bendisch, J.; Sdunnus, H.

The steadily increasing number of space objects poses a considerable hazard to all kinds of spacecraft. To reduce the risks to future space missions different debris mitigation measures and spacecraft protection techniques have been investigated during the last years. However, the economic efficiency has not been considered yet in this context. This economical background is not always clear to satellite operators and the space industry. Current studies have the objective to evaluate the mission costs due to space debris in a business as usual (no mitigation) scenario compared to the missions costs considering debris mitigation. The aim i an estimation of thes time until the investment in debris mitigation will lead to an effective reduction of mission costs. This paper presents the results of investigations on the key problems of cost estimation for spacecraft and the influence of debris mitigation and shielding on cost. The shielding of a satellite can be an effective method to protect the spacecraft against debris impact. Mitigation strategies like the reduction of orbital lifetime and de- or re-orbit of non-operational satellites are methods to control the space debris environment. These methods result in an increase of costs. In a first step the overall costs of different types of unmanned satellites are analyzed. The key problem is, that it is not possible to provide a simple cost model that can be applied to all types of satellites. Unmanned spacecraft differ very much in mission, complexity of design, payload and operational lifetime. It is important to classify relevant cost parameters and investigate their influence on the respective mission. The theory of empirical cost estimation and existing cost models are discussed. A selected cost model is simplified and generalized for an application on all operational satellites. In a next step the influence of space debris on cost is treated, if the implementation of mitigation strategies is considered.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steele, Amy; Hughes, A. Meredith; Carpenter, John

The presence of debris disks around young main-sequence stars hints at the existence and structure of planetary systems. Millimeter-wavelength observations probe large grains that trace the location of planetesimal belts. The Formation and Evolution of Planetary Systems Spitzer Legacy survey of nearby young solar analogues yielded a sample of five debris disk-hosting stars with millimeter flux suitable for interferometric follow-up. We present observations with the Submillimeter Array (SMA) and the Combined Array for Research in Millimeter-wave Astronomy at ∼2″ resolution that spatially resolve the debris disks around these nearby (d ∼ 50 pc) stars. Two of the five disks (HDmore » 377, HD 8907) are spatially resolved for the first time and one (HD 104860) is resolved at millimeter wavelengths for the first time. We combine our new observations with archival SMA and Atacama Large Millimeter/Submillimeter Array data to enable a uniform analysis of the full five-object sample. We simultaneously model the broadband photometric data and resolved millimeter visibilities to constrain the dust temperatures and disk morphologies, and perform a Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis to fit for basic structural parameters. We find that the radii and widths of the cold outer belts exhibit properties consistent with scaled-up versions of the Solar System's Kuiper Belt. All the disks exhibit characteristic grain sizes comparable to the blowout size, and all the resolved observations of emission from large dust grains are consistent with an axisymmetric dust distribution to within the uncertainties. These results are consistent with comparable studies carried out at infrared wavelengths.« less

Semi-automatic recognition of marine debris on beaches

PubMed Central

Ge, Zhenpeng; Shi, Huahong; Mei, Xuefei; Dai, Zhijun; Li, Daoji

2016-01-01

An increasing amount of anthropogenic marine debris is pervading the earth’s environmental systems, resulting in an enormous threat to living organisms. Additionally, the large amount of marine debris around the world has been investigated mostly through tedious manual methods. Therefore, we propose the use of a new technique, light detection and ranging (LIDAR), for the semi-automatic recognition of marine debris on a beach because of its substantially more efficient role in comparison with other more laborious methods. Our results revealed that LIDAR should be used for the classification of marine debris into plastic, paper, cloth and metal. Additionally, we reconstructed a 3-dimensional model of different types of debris on a beach with a high validity of debris revivification using LIDAR-based individual separation. These findings demonstrate that the availability of this new technique enables detailed observations to be made of debris on a large beach that was previously not possible. It is strongly suggested that LIDAR could be implemented as an appropriate monitoring tool for marine debris by global researchers and governments. PMID:27156433

Volcanic debris flows in developing countries - The extreme need for public education and awareness of debris-flow hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Major, J.J.; Schilling, S.P.; Pullinger, C.R.; ,

2003-01-01

In many developing countries, volcanic debris flows pose a significant societal risk owing to the distribution of dense populations that commonly live on or near a volcano. At many volcanoes, modest volume (up to 500,000 m 3) debris flows are relatively common (multiple times per century) and typically flow at least 5 km along established drainages. Owing to typical debris-flow velocities there is little time for authorities to provide effective warning of the occurrence of a debris flow to populations within 10 km of a source area. Therefore, people living, working, or recreating along channels that drain volcanoes must learn to recognize potentially hazardous conditions, be aware of the extent of debris-flow hazard zones, and be prepared to evacuate to safer ground when hazardous conditions develop rather than await official warnings or intervention. Debris-flow-modeling and hazard-assessment studies must be augmented with public education programs that emphasize recognizing conditions favorable for triggering landslides and debris flows if effective hazard mitigation is to succeed. ?? 2003 Millpress,.

GENERALIZED VISCOPLASTIC MODELING OF DEBRIS FLOW.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Cheng-lung

1988-01-01

The earliest model developed by R. A. Bagnold was based on the concept of the 'dispersive' pressure generated by grain collisions. Some efforts have recently been made by theoreticians in non-Newtonian fluid mechanics to modify or improve Bagnold's concept or model. A viable rheological model should consist both of a rate-independent part and a rate-dependent part. A generalized viscoplastic fluid (GVF) model that has both parts as well as two major rheological properties (i. e. , the normal stress effect and soil yield criterion) is shown to be sufficiently accurate, yet practical for general use in debris-flow modeling. In fact, Bagnold's model is found to be only a particular case of the GVF model. analytical solutions for (steady) uniform debris flows in wide channels are obtained from the GVF model based on Bagnold's simplified assumption of constant grain concentration.

Space program: Space debris a potential threat to Space Station and shuttle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwartz, Stephen A.; Beers, Ronald W.; Phillips, Colleen M.; Ramos, Yvette

1990-01-01

Experts estimate that more than 3.5 million man-made objects are orbiting the earth. These objects - space debris - include whole and fragmentary parts of rocket bodies and other discarded equipment from space missions. About 24,500 of these objects are 1 centimeter across or larger. A 1-centimeter man-made object travels in orbit at roughly 22,000 miles per hour. If it hit a spacecraft, it would do about the same damage as would a 400-pound safe traveling at 60 miles per hour. The Government Accounting Office (GAO) reviews NASA's plans for protecting the space station from debris, the extent and precision of current NASA and Defense Department (DOD) debris-tracking capabilities, and the extent to which debris has already affected shuttle operations. GAO recommends that the space debris model be updated, and that the findings be incorporated into the plans for protecting the space station from such debris. GAO further recommends that the increased risk from debris to the space shuttle operations be analyzed.

Study on Gap Flow Field Simulation in Small Hole Machining of Ultrasonic Assisted EDM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yu; Chang, Hao; Zhang, Wenchao; Ma, Fujian; Sha, Zhihua; Zhang, Shengfang

2017-12-01

When machining a small hole with high aspect ratio in EDM, it is hard for the flushing liquid entering the bottom gap and the debris could hardly be removed, which results in the accumulation of debris and affects the machining efficiency and machining accuracy. The assisted ultrasonic vibration can improve the removal of debris in the gap. Based on dynamics simulation software Fluent, a 3D model of debris movement in the gap flow field of EDM small hole machining assisted with side flushing and ultrasonic vibration is established in this paper. When depth to ratio is 3, the laws of different amplitudes and frequencies on debris distribution and removal are quantitatively analysed. The research results show that periodic ultrasonic vibration can promote the movement of debris, which is beneficial to the removal of debris in the machining gap. Compared to traditional small hole machining in EDM, the debris in the machining gap is greatly reduced, which ensures the stability of machining process and improves the machining efficiency.

The Characteristics and Consequences of the Break-up of the Fengyun-1C Spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Nicholas L.; Stansbery, Eugene; Liou, Jer-chyi; Horstman, Matt; Stokeley, Christopher; Whitlock, David

2007-01-01

The intentional break-up of the Fengyun-1C spacecraft on 11 January 2007 via hypervelocity collision with a ballistic object created the most severe artificial debris cloud in Earth orbit since the beginning of space exploration. More than 900 debris on the order of 10 cm or greater in size have been identified by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN). The majority of these debris reside in long-lived orbits. The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has conducted a thorough examination of the nature of the Fengyun-1C debris cloud, using SSN data for larger debris and special Haystack radar observations for smaller debris. These data have been compared with the NASA standard satellite break-up model for collisions, and the results are presented in this paper. The orbital longevity of the debris have also been evaluated for both small and large debris. The consequent long-term spatial density effects on the low Earth orbit (LEO) regime are then described. Finally, collision probabilities between the Fengyun-1C debris cloud and the resident space object population of 1 January 2007 have been calculated. The potential effect on the growth of the near-Earth satellite population is presented.

Utilizing Weather RADAR for Rapid Location of Meteorite Falls and Space Debris Re-Entry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fries, Marc D.

2016-01-01

This activity utilizes existing NOAA weather RADAR imagery to locate meteorite falls and space debris falls. The near-real-time availability and spatial accuracy of these data allow rapid recovery of material from both meteorite falls and space debris re-entry events. To date, at least 22 meteorite fall recoveries have benefitted from RADAR detection and fall modeling, and multiple debris re-entry events over the United States have been observed in unprecedented detail.

Both size-frequency distribution and sub-populations of the main-belt asteroid population are consistent with YORP-induced rotational fission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobson, S.; Scheeres, D.; Rossi, A.; Marzari, F.; Davis, D.

2014-07-01

From the results of a comprehensive asteroid-population-evolution model, we conclude that the YORP-induced rotational-fission hypothesis has strong repercussions for the small size end of the main-belt asteroid size-frequency distribution and is consistent with observed asteroid-population statistics and with the observed sub-populations of binary asteroids, asteroid pairs and contact binaries. The foundation of this model is the asteroid-rotation model of Marzari et al. (2011) and Rossi et al. (2009), which incorporates both the YORP effect and collisional evolution. This work adds to that model the rotational fission hypothesis (i.e. when the rotation rate exceeds a critical value, erosion and binary formation occur; Scheeres 2007) and binary-asteroid evolution (Jacobson & Scheeres, 2011). The YORP-effect timescale for large asteroids with diameters D > ˜ 6 km is longer than the collision timescale in the main belt, thus the frequency of large asteroids is determined by a collisional equilibrium (e.g. Bottke 2005), but for small asteroids with diameters D < ˜ 6 km, the asteroid-population evolution model confirms that YORP-induced rotational fission destroys small asteroids more frequently than collisions. Therefore, the frequency of these small asteroids is determined by an equilibrium between the creation of new asteroids out of the impact debris of larger asteroids and the destruction of these asteroids by YORP-induced rotational fission. By introducing a new source of destruction that varies strongly with size, YORP-induced rotational fission alters the slope of the size-frequency distribution. Using the outputs of the asteroid-population evolution model and a 1-D collision evolution model, we can generate this new size-frequency distribution and it matches the change in slope observed by the SKADS survey (Gladman 2009). This agreement is achieved with both an accretional power-law or a truncated ''Asteroids were Born Big'' size-frequency distribution (Weidenschilling 2010, Morbidelli 2009). The binary-asteroid evolution model is highly constrained by the modeling done in Jacobson & Scheeres, and therefore the asteroid-population evolution model has only two significant free parameters: the ratio of low-to-high-mass-ratio binaries formed after rotational fission events and the mean strength of the binary YORP (BYORP) effect. Using this model, we successfully reproduce the observed small-asteroid sub-populations, which orthogonally constrain the two free parameters. We find the outcome of rotational fission most likely produces an initial mass-ratio fraction that is four to eight times as likely to produce high-mass-ratio systems as low-mass-ratio systems, which is consistent with rotational fission creating binary systems in a flat distribution with respect to mass ratio. We also find that the mean of the log-normal BYORP coefficient distribution B ≈ 10^{-2}.

Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Booster Debris Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kendall, Kristin; Kanner, Howard; Yu, Weiping

2006-01-01

The Space Shuttle Columbia Accident revealed a fundamental problem of the Space Shuttle Program regarding debris. Prior to the tragedy, the Space Shuttle requirement stated that no debris should be liberated that would jeopardize the flight crew and/or mission success. When the accident investigation determined that a large piece of foam debris was the primary cause of the loss of the shuttle and crew, it became apparent that the risk and scope of - damage that could be caused by certain types of debris, especially - ice and foam, were not fully understood. There was no clear understanding of the materials that could become debris, the path the debris might take during flight, the structures the debris might impact or the damage the impact might cause. In addition to supporting the primary NASA and USA goal of returning the Space Shuttle to flight by understanding the SRB debris environment and capability to withstand that environment, the SRB debris assessment project was divided into four primary tasks that were required to be completed to support the RTF goal. These tasks were (1) debris environment definition, (2) impact testing, (3) model correlation and (4) hardware evaluation. Additionally, the project aligned with USA's corporate goals of safety, customer satisfaction, professional development and fiscal accountability.

Debris Dispersion Model Using Java 3D

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thirumalainambi, Rajkumar; Bardina, Jorge

2004-01-01

This paper describes web based simulation of Shuttle launch operations and debris dispersion. Java 3D graphics provides geometric and visual content with suitable mathematical model and behaviors of Shuttle launch. Because the model is so heterogeneous and interrelated with various factors, 3D graphics combined with physical models provides mechanisms to understand the complexity of launch and range operations. The main focus in the modeling and simulation covers orbital dynamics and range safety. Range safety areas include destruct limit lines, telemetry and tracking and population risk near range. If there is an explosion of Shuttle during launch, debris dispersion is explained. The shuttle launch and range operations in this paper are discussed based on the operations from Kennedy Space Center, Florida, USA.

Space Station: Delays in dealing with space debris may reduce safety and increase costs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1992-06-01

The majority of NASA's current designs for protecting the space station and crew from debris are outdated and its overall debris protection strategy is insufficient. NASA's contractors have designed the station using a 1984 model of the space environment that is obsolete, significantly underestimating the increasing amount of debris that the station will encounter during its 30-year lifetime. In February 1992, NASA directed its space centers to incorporate an updated 1991 model into their designs. However, the agency has not yet made critical decisions on how to implement this change. Preliminary evaluations show that incorporating the 1991 model using currently established safety criteria could entail a major redesign of some components, with significant cost impact and schedule delays. NASA's overall protection strategy for space debris is insufficient. While NASA has concentrated its protection on shielding the space station from small debris and plans to augment this initial shielding in orbit, it has not yet developed designs or studied the cost and operational impact of augmenting its protection with additional shielding. Further, current designs do not provide the capability of warning or protecting the crew from imminent collision with mid-size debris. Finally, although some capabilities exist for maneuvering the station away from large debris, the agency lacks collision-avoidance plans and debris-tracking equipment. In developing a comprehensive strategy to protect the station from the more severe debris environment, NASA cannot avoid some difficult decisions. These decisions involve tradeoffs between how much the agency is willing to pay to protect the station, the schedule delays it may incur, and the risk to station safety it is willing to accept. It is important that these decisions be made before NASA completes its critical design reviews in early 1993. At that time key designs will be made final and manufacturing will begin. Without a comprehensive strategy, NASA will have decided to build the station, knowing the consequences of this decision on station and crew safety, and on life-cycle station cost.

Resolving the cold debris disc around a planet-hosting star . PACS photometric imaging observations of q1 Eridani (HD 10647, HR 506)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liseau, R.; Eiroa, C.; Fedele, D.; Augereau, J.-C.; Olofsson, G.; González, B.; Maldonado, J.; Montesinos, B.; Mora, A.; Absil, O.; Ardila, D.; Barrado, D.; Bayo, A.; Beichman, C. A.; Bryden, G.; Danchi, W. C.; Del Burgo, C.; Ertel, S.; Fridlund, C. W. M.; Heras, A. M.; Krivov, A. V.; Launhardt, R.; Lebreton, J.; Löhne, T.; Marshall, J. P.; Meeus, G.; Müller, S.; Pilbratt, G. L.; Roberge, A.; Rodmann, J.; Solano, E.; Stapelfeldt, K. R.; Thébault, Ph.; White, G. J.; Wolf, S.

2010-07-01

Context. About two dozen exo-solar debris systems have been spatially resolved. These debris discs commonly display a variety of structural features such as clumps, rings, belts, excentric distributions and spiral patterns. In most cases, these features are believed to be formed, shaped and maintained by the dynamical influence of planets orbiting the host stars. In very few cases has the presence of the dynamically important planet(s) been inferred from direct observation. Aims: The solar-type star q1 Eri is known to be surrounded by debris, extended on scales of ⪉30”. The star is also known to host at least one planet, albeit on an orbit far too small to make it responsible for structures at distances of tens to hundreds of AU. The aim of the present investigation is twofold: to determine the optical and material properties of the debris and to infer the spatial distribution of the dust, which may hint at the presence of additional planets. Methods: The Photodetector Array Camera and Spectrometer (PACS) aboard the Herschel Space Observatory allows imaging observations in the far infrared at unprecedented resolution, i.e. at better than 6” to 12” over the wavelength range of 60 μm to 210 μm. Together with the results from ground-based observations, these spatially resolved data can be modelled to determine the nature of the debris and its evolution more reliably than what would be possible from unresolved data alone. Results: For the first time has the q1 Eri disc been resolved at far infrared wavelengths. The PACS observations at 70 μm, 100 μm and 160 μm reveal an oval image showing a disc-like structure in all bands, the size of which increases with wavelength. Assuming a circular shape yields the inclination of its equatorial plane with respect to that of the sky, i > 53°. The results of image de-convolution indicate that i likely is larger than 63°, where 90° corresponds to an edge-on disc. Conclusions: The observed emission is thermal and optically thin. The resolved data are consistent with debris at temperatures below 30 K at radii larger than 120 AU. From image de-convolution, we find that q1 Eri is surrounded by an about 40 AU wide ring at the radial distance of ~85 AU. This is the first real Edgeworth-Kuiper Belt analogue ever observed. Herschel is an ESA space observatory with science instruments provided by European-led Principal Investigator consortia and with important participation from NASA.

Flank collapse at Mount Wrangell, Alaska, recorded by volcanic mass-flow deposits in the Copper River lowland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waythomas, C.F.; Wallace, K.L.

2002-01-01

An areally extensive volcanic mass-flow deposit of Pleistocene age, known as the Chetaslina volcanic mass-flow deposit, is a prominent and visually striking deposit in the southeastern Copper River lowland of south-central Alaska. The mass-flow deposit consists of a diverse mixture of colorful, variably altered volcanic rocks, lahar deposits, glaciolacustrine diamicton, and till that record a major flank collapse on the southwest flank of Mount Wrangell. The deposit is well exposed near its presumed source, and thick, continuous, stratigraphic exposures have permitted us to study its sedimentary characteristics as a means of better understanding the origin, significance, and evolution of the deposit. Deposits of the Chetaslina volcanic mass flow in the Chetaslina River drainage are primary debris-avalanche deposits and consist of two principal facies types, a near-source block facies and a distal mixed facies. The block facies is composed entirely of block-supported, shattered and fractured blocks with individual blocks up to 40 m in diameter. The mixed facies consists of block-sized particles in a matrix of poorly sorted rock rubble, sand, and silt generated by the comminution of larger blocks. Deposits of the Chetaslina volcanic mass flow exposed along the Copper, Tonsina, and Chitina rivers are debris-flow deposits that evolved from the debris-avalanche component of the flow and from erosion and entrainment of local glacial and glaciolacustrine diamicton in the Copper River lowland. The debris-flow deposits were probably generated through mixing of the distal debris avalanche with the ancestral Copper River, or through breaching of a debris-avalanche dam across the ancestral river. The distribution of facies types and major-element chemistry of clasts in the deposit indicate that its source was an ancestral volcanic edifice, informally known as the Chetaslina vent, on the southwest side of Mount Wrangell. A major sector collapse of the Chetaslina vent initiated the Chetaslina volcanic mass flow forming a debris avalanche of about 4 km3 that subsequently transformed to a debris flow of unknown volume.

Faint Debris Detection by Particle Based Track-Before-Detect Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uetsuhara, M.; Ikoma, N.

2014-09-01

This study proposes a particle method to detect faint debris, which is hardly seen in single frame, from an image sequence based on the concept of track-before-detect (TBD). The most widely used detection method is detect-before-track (DBT), which firstly detects signals of targets from single frame by distinguishing difference of intensity between foreground and background then associate the signals for each target between frames. DBT is capable of tracking bright targets but limited. DBT is necessary to consider presence of false signals and is difficult to recover from false association. On the other hand, TBD methods try to track targets without explicitly detecting the signals followed by evaluation of goodness of each track and obtaining detection results. TBD has an advantage over DBT in detecting weak signals around background level in single frame. However, conventional TBD methods for debris detection apply brute-force search over candidate tracks then manually select true one from the candidates. To reduce those significant drawbacks of brute-force search and not-fully automated process, this study proposes a faint debris detection algorithm by a particle based TBD method consisting of sequential update of target state and heuristic search of initial state. The state consists of position, velocity direction and magnitude, and size of debris over the image at a single frame. The sequential update process is implemented by a particle filter (PF). PF is an optimal filtering technique that requires initial distribution of target state as a prior knowledge. An evolutional algorithm (EA) is utilized to search the initial distribution. The EA iteratively applies propagation and likelihood evaluation of particles for the same image sequences and resulting set of particles is used as an initial distribution of PF. This paper describes the algorithm of the proposed faint debris detection method. The algorithm demonstrates performance on image sequences acquired during observation campaigns dedicated to GEO breakup fragments, which would contain a sufficient number of faint debris images. The results indicate the proposed method is capable of tracking faint debris with moderate computational costs at operational level.

Measuring the structure and composition of circumstellar debris disks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballering, Nicholas Paul

In this dissertation, I measure the structure and composition of circumstellar debris disks to probe the underlying planetary systems. In Chapter 1, I provide an introduction to the field of debris disks. I highlight our current observational and theoretical understanding of the field, rather than providing a detailed history. This is intended to give the reader context and motivation for the subsequent chapters. I also describe important developments in debris disk science that are not the focus of this dissertation, but are nevertheless vital for a complete overview. In Chapter 2, I describe my analysis of a large sample of cold (<130 K) debris disks seen in Spitzer/IRS data. Previous work had suggested a common temperature for these disk components, regardless of spectral type. I find that there is trend with spectral type and argue that the locations of cold disks are not set by snow lines, but more likely by the formation/evolution of planets. This work was published in Ballering et al. (2013). In Chapter 3, I turn my focus to the warm (˜190 K) debris components identified in Chapter 2--specifically those exhibiting silicate emission features. I show that these features arise from exozodiacal dust in the habitable zones around these stars. This was published in Ballering et al. (2014). In Chapter 4, I examine the remainder of the warm disks to investigate what mechanism sets their location. I find that for many systems, the locations trace the water snow line in the primordial protoplanetary disk, rather than the current snow line. This favors the interpretation that warm debris components arise from asteroid belts in these systems. This study will be published soon. In Chapter 5, I analyze images of the debris disk around beta Pictoris at five different wavelengths, including in thermal emission and scattered light. I find that matching the disk brightness at all wavelengths constrains the composition of the dust, with a mixture of astronomical silicates and organic refractory material fitting the data well. This was published in Ballering et al. (2016). In Chapter 6, I conclude with a summary of this dissertation and prospects for future progress in these areas.

Characterization of Orbital Debris Via Hyper-Velocity Ground-Based Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cowardin, Heather

2015-01-01

To replicate a hyper-velocity fragmentation event using modern-day spacecraft materials and construction techniques to better improve the existing DoD and NASA breakup models. DebriSat is intended to be representative of modern LEO satellites.Major design decisions were reviewed and approved by Aerospace subject matter experts from different disciplines. DebriSat includes 7 major subsystems. Attitude determination and control system (ADCS), command and data handling (C&DH), electrical power system (EPS), payload, propulsion, telemetry tracking and command (TT&C), and thermal management. To reduce cost, most components are emulated based on existing design of flight hardware and fabricated with the same materials. A key laboratory-based test, Satellite Orbital debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT), supporting the development of the DoD and NASA satellite breakup models was conducted at AEDC in 1992 .Breakup models based on SOCIT have supported many applications and matched on-orbit events reasonably well over the years.

Grain size controls on sediment supply from debris-mantled dryland hillslopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michaelides, K.

2011-12-01

Debris-mantled hillslopes are common in arid and semiarid environments where low rates of chemical weathering give rise to thin, non-cohesive soils mantled with a layer of coarse rock fragments derived from weathered bedrock that can reach boulder size. The grain size distributions (GSDs) on the surface of these hillslopes interact with different magnitudes and frequencies of runoff-producing rainfall events that selectively transport grain sizes of different classes depending on flow, grain position on the slope, and hillslope attributes. Sediment transport over many runoff events determines sediment delivery to the slope base, which ultimately modifies the GSD of valley floors. The relationship between hillslope attributes and sediment flux forms the basis of geomorphic transport laws used to model the topographic evolution of drainage basins over >104 y timescales, but the specific responses of sediment flux across the hillslope and the corresponding changes in GSDs to individual storm events are poorly understood. Sheetwash erosion of coarse fragments presents a particular set of conditions for sediment transport that is poorly resolved in current models. A particle-based model for sheetwash sediment transport on debris-mantled hillslopes was developed within a rainfall-runoff model. The rainfall-runoff model produces spatial values of flow depth and velocity which are used to drive a particle-by-particle force-balance model derived from first principles for grain sizes > 1 mm. Particles on the hillslope surface are represented explicitly and can be composed of mixed grain sizes of any distribution or of uniform sizes of any diameter. The model resolves all the forces on each particle at each time and space step based on the flow hydraulics acting on them, so no assumptions are made about incipient motion using Shield's criterion. This research examines how the interplay between hillslope GSD, hillslope attributes (gradient and length) and runoff characteristics, determine sediment transport dynamics and net flux, GSD supplied to the slope base and the changes in GSD on the hillslope. The results show a strong control of initial hillslope GSD on flux characteristics: (1) GSD controls the degree of non-linearity in the relationship between sediment flux and hillslope gradient. (2) Grain size uniformity controls the degree and form of non-linearity in the relationship between sediment flux and gradient. (3) Over multiple runoff events, slopes coarsen - steeper slopes become coarser than shallow slopes. For individual events, changes in GSD on the slope depend on the magnitude and duration of the runoff event and can result in variable coarsening and fining on different parts of the slope. (4) The GSD of sediment delivered to the slope base is dependent on the hillslope GSD and the hillslope attributes and runoff characteristics. For most runoff events, the GSD of fluxed sediment is finer than the hillslope GSD except for extreme runoff events on very steep slopes with intermediate GSD (not extremely coarse). These findings provide insights into hillslope responses to climatic forcing and have theoretical implications for modeling hillslope evolution in drylands.

Modelling The Energy And Mass Balance Of A Black Glacier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossi, G.; Taschner, S.; Ranzi, R.

A distributed energy balance hydrologic model has been implemented to simulate the melting season of the Belvedere glacier, situated in the Anza river basin (North- Western Italy) for a few years. The Belvedere Glacier is an example of SblackS glacier, ´ since the ablation zone is covered by a significant debris layer. The glacierSs termi- nus has an altitude of 1785 m asl which is very unusual for the Southern side of the European Alps. The model accounts for the energy exchange processes at the inter- face between the atmospheric boundary layer and the snow/ice/debris layer. To run the model hydrometeorological and physiographic data were collected, including the depth of the debris cover and the tritium (3H) concentration in the glacial river. Mea- surements of the soil thermal conductivity were carried out during a field campaign organised within the glaciers monitoring GLIMS project, at the time of the passage of the Landsat and the Terra satellites last 15 August 2001. A comparison of the different energy terms simulated by the model assigns a dominant role to the shortwave radia- tion, which provides the highest positive contribution to the energy available for snow- and ice-melt, while the sensible heat turns out to be the second major source of heat. Longwave radiation balance and latent heat seem to be less relevant and often nega- tive. The role of the debris cover is not negligible, since its thermal insulation causes, on average, a decrease in the ice melt volume. One of the model variables is the tem- perature of the debris cover, which can be a useful information when a black glacier is to be monitored through remote sensing techniques. The visible and near infrared radi- ation data do not always provide sufficient information to detect the glaciers' margins beneath the debris layer. For this reason the information of the different thermal sur- face characteristics (pure ice, debris covered ice, rock), proved by the energy balance model results was applied for the glacierSs classification with a Landsat-TM image. Taking into account also the thermal infrared band leads to an improved classification result.

Hydro-glaciological modeling in the Upper Maipo River basin, extratropical Andes Cordillera, with explicit representation of debris-covered glaciers.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McPhee, J. P.; Castillo, Y.; Escobar, M.; Pellicciotti, F.

2014-12-01

In this work we improve and calibrate a hydro-glaciological model based on a simplified energy balance approach using the WEAP modeling platform for two catchments in the headwaters of the Maipo River Basin, in the Andes Mountains of Central Chile. The Morales Creek catchment includes the San Francisco glacier, a clean glacier occupying 7% of the catchment area. The Pirámide catchment holds the debris-covered Pirámide Glacier, which covers 20% of the catchment area. Detailed field measurements have been carried out on both glaciers to characterize their melt and meteorological regimes. We calibrate an Enhanced Temperature Index melt model against ablation stakes and runoff measurements, and obtain clear differences between the optimal parameters for the clean and debris-covered glaciers. Calibrate melt threshold temperatures are 0,25 and 0,5ºC for the clean and debris-covered glaciers, respectively, while the fraction of net shortwave radiation employed for melting is 90 and 83% for clean and debris-covered glaciers, respectively. These results are coherent with an insulating effect of the debris cover at the Pirámide glacier. The hydrologic contribution of ice melt for the clean, San Francisco glacier is equivalent to 32% of total runoff measured at the Morales Creek outlet during the simulation period; on the other hand, ice melt accounts for 83% of total runoff estimated at the outlet of the Pirámide catchment over the same period. These results are part on an ongoing effort aimed at quantifying cryospheric contribution to the hydrology of the Maipo River basin, one of the key river basins in Chile, on the face of accelerated climate change, and is the first documented work to explicitly include debris-covered glaciers in a context of basin-wide hydrological modeling.

A new debris sensor based on dual excitation sources for online debris monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Wei; Wang, Shaoping; Tomovic, Mileta M.; Liu, Haokuo; Wang, Xingjian

2015-09-01

Mechanical systems could be severely damaged by loose debris generated through wear processes between contact surfaces. Hence, debris detection is necessary for effective fault diagnosis, life prediction, and prevention of catastrophic failures. This paper presents a new in-line debris sensor for hydraulic systems based on dual excitation sources. The proposed sensor makes magnetic lines more concentrated while at the same time improving magnetic field uniformity. As a result the sensor has higher sensitivity and improved precision. This paper develops the sensor model, discusses sensor structural features, and introduces a measurement method for debris size identification. Finally, experimental verification is presented indicating that that the sensor can effectively detect 81 μm (cube) or larger particles in 12 mm outside diameter (OD) organic glass pipe.

Applied Astronomy: An Optical Survey for Space Debris at GEO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seitzer, Patrick; Barker, Edwin S.; Abercromby, K.; Rodriquez, H.

2007-01-01

A viewgraph is presented to discuss space debris at Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO). The topics include: 1) Syncom1 launched February 14, 1963 Failed on orbit insertion 1st piece of GEO debris!; 2) Example of recent GEO payload: XM-2 Rock satellite for direct broadcast radio; 3) MODEST Michigan Orbital DEbrisSurvey Telescope the telescope formerly known as the Curtis-Schmidt; 4) GEO Debris Survey; 5) Examples of Detections; 6) Brightness Variations Common; 7) Observed Angular Rates; 8) Two Populations at GEO; 9) High Area-to-Mass Ratio Material (A/M); 10) Examples of MLI; 11) Examples of MLI Release in LEO; 12) Liou & Weaver (2005) models; 13) ESA 1-m Telescope Survey; 14) Two Telescopes March 2007 Survey and Follow-up; 15) Final Eccentricity; and 16) How control Space Debris?

Biobjective planning of an active debris removal mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madakat, Dalal; Morio, Jérôme; Vanderpooten, Daniel

2013-03-01

The growth of the orbital debris population has been a concern to the international space community for several years. Recent studies have shown that the debris environment in Low Earth Orbit (LEO, defined as the region up to 2000 km altitude) has reached a point where the debris population will continue to increase even if all future launches are suspended. As the orbits of these objects often overlap the trajectories of satellites, debris create a potential collision risk. However, several studies show that about 5 objects per year should be removed in order to keep the future LEO environment stable. In this article, we propose a biobjective time dependent traveling salesman problem (BiTDTSP) model for the problem of optimally removing debris and use a branch and bound approach to deal with it.

New 3D thermal evolution model for icy bodies application to trans-Neptunian objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guilbert-Lepoutre, A.; Lasue, J.; Federico, C.; Coradini, A.; Orosei, R.; Rosenberg, E. D.

2011-05-01

Context. Thermal evolution models have been developed over the years to investigate the evolution of thermal properties based on the transfer of heat fluxes or transport of gas through a porous matrix, among others. Applications of such models to trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) and Centaurs has shown that these bodies could be strongly differentiated from the point of view of chemistry (i.e. loss of most volatile ices), as well as from physics (e.g. melting of water ice), resulting in stratified internal structures with differentiated cores and potential pristine material close to the surface. In this context, some observational results, such as the detection of crystalline water ice or volatiles, remain puzzling. Aims: In this paper, we would like to present a new fully three-dimensional thermal evolution model. With this model, we aim to improve determination of the temperature distribution inside icy bodies such as TNOs by accounting for lateral heat fluxes, which have been proven to be important for accurate simulations. We also would like to be able to account for heterogeneous boundary conditions at the surface through various albedo properties, for example, that might induce different local temperature distributions. Methods: In a departure from published modeling approaches, the heat diffusion problem and its boundary conditions are represented in terms of real spherical harmonics, increasing the numerical efficiency by roughly an order of magnitude. We then compare this new model and another 3D model recently published to illustrate the advantages and limits of the new model. We try to put some constraints on the presence of crystalline water ice at the surface of TNOs. Results: The results obtained with this new model are in excellent agreement with results obtained by different groups with various models. Small TNOs could remain primitive unless they are formed quickly (less than 2 Myr) or are debris from the disruption of larger bodies. We find that, for large objects with a thermal evolution dominated by the decay of long-lived isotopes (objects with a formation period greater than 2 to 3 Myr), the presence of crystalline water ice would require both a large radius (>300 km) and high density (>1500 kg m-3). In particular, objects with intermediate radii and densities would be an interesting transitory population deserving a detailed study of individual fates.

Statistical Estimation of Orbital Debris Populations with a Spectrum of Object Size

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Y. -l; Horstman, M.; Krisko, P. H.; Liou, J. -C; Matney, M.; Stansbery, E. G.; Stokely, C. L.; Whitlock, D.

2008-01-01

Orbital debris is a real concern for the safe operations of satellites. In general, the hazard of debris impact is a function of the size and spatial distributions of the debris populations. To describe and characterize the debris environment as reliably as possible, the current NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2000) is being upgraded to a new version based on new and better quality data. The data-driven ORDEM model covers a wide range of object sizes from 10 microns to greater than 1 meter. This paper reviews the statistical process for the estimation of the debris populations in the new ORDEM upgrade, and discusses the representation of large-size (greater than or equal to 1 m and greater than or equal to 10 cm) populations by SSN catalog objects and the validation of the statistical approach. Also, it presents results for the populations with sizes of greater than or equal to 3.3 cm, greater than or equal to 1 cm, greater than or equal to 100 micrometers, and greater than or equal to 10 micrometers. The orbital debris populations used in the new version of ORDEM are inferred from data based upon appropriate reference (or benchmark) populations instead of the binning of the multi-dimensional orbital-element space. This paper describes all of the major steps used in the population-inference procedure for each size-range. Detailed discussions on data analysis, parameter definition, the correlation between parameters and data, and uncertainty assessment are included.

Debris flow initiation in proglacial gullies on Mount Rainier, Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legg, Nicholas T.; Meigs, Andrew J.; Grant, Gordon E.; Kennard, Paul

2014-12-01

Effects of climate change, retreating glaciers, and changing storm patterns on debris flow hazards concern managers in the Cascade Range (USA) and mountainous areas worldwide. During an intense rainstorm in November 2006, seven debris flows initiated from proglacial gullies of separate basins on the flanks of Mount Rainier. Gully heads at glacier termini and widespread failure of gully walls imply that overland flow was transformed into debris flow along gullies. We characterized gully change and morphology, and assessed spatial distributions of debris flows to infer the processes and conditions for debris flow initiation. Slopes at gully heads were greater than ~ 0.35 m m- 1 (19°) and exhibited a significant negative relationship with drainage area. A break in slope-drainage area trends among debris flow gullies also occurs at ~ 0.35 m m- 1, representing a possible transition to fluvial sediment transport and erosion. An interpreted hybrid model of debris flow initiation involves bed failure near gully heads followed by sediment recruitment from gully walls along gully lengths. Estimates of sediment volume loss from gully walls demonstrate the importance of sediment inputs along gullies for increasing debris flow volumes. Basin comparisons revealed significantly steeper drainage networks and higher elevations in debris flow-producing than non-debris flow-producing proglacial areas. The high slopes and elevations of debris flow-producing proglacial areas reflect positive slope-elevation trends for the Mount Rainier volcano. Glacier extent therefore controls the slope distribution in proglacial areas, and thus potential for debris flow generation. As a result, debris flow activity may increase as glacier termini retreat onto slopes inclined at angles above debris flow initiation thresholds.

Conceptualizing an economically, legally, and politically viable active debris removal option

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emanuelli, M.; Federico, G.; Loughman, J.; Prasad, D.; Chow, T.; Rathnasabapathy, M.

2014-11-01

It has become increasingly clear in recent years that the issue of space debris, particularly in low-Earth orbit, can no longer be ignored or simply mitigated. Orbital debris currently threatens safe space flight for both satellites and humans aboard the International Space Station. Additionally, orbital debris might impact Earth upon re-entry, endangering human lives and damaging the environment with toxic materials. In summary, orbital debris seriously jeopardizes the future not only of human presence in space, but also of human safety on Earth. While international efforts to mitigate the current situation and limit the creation of new debris are useful, recent studies predicting debris evolution have indicated that these will not be enough to ensure humanity's access to and use of the near-Earth environment in the long-term. Rather, active debris removal (ADR) must be pursued if we are to continue benefiting from and conducting space activities. While the concept of ADR is not new, it has not yet been implemented. This is not just because of the technical feasibility of such a scheme, but also because of the host of economic, legal/regulatory, and political issues associated with debris remediation. The costs of ADR are not insignificant and, in today's restrictive fiscal climate, are unlikely/to be covered by any single actor. Similarly, ADR concepts bring up many unresolved questions about liability, the protection of proprietary information, safety, and standards. In addition, because of the dual use nature of ADR technologies, any venture will necessarily require political considerations. Despite the many unanswered questions surrounding ADR, it is an endeavor worth pursuing if we are to continue relying on space activities for a variety of critical daily needs and services. Moreover, we cannot ignore the environmental implications that an unsustainable use of space will imply for life on Earth in the long run. This paper aims to explore some of these challenges and propose an economically, politically, and legally viable ADR option. Much like waste management on Earth, cleaning up space junk will likely lie somewhere between a public good and a private sector service. An international, cooperative, public-private partnership concept can address many of these issues and be economically sustainable, while also driving the creation of a proper set of regulations, standards and best practices.

The AU Microscopii Debris Disk: Multiwavelength Imaging and Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitzgerald, Michael P.; Kalas, Paul G.; Duchêne, Gaspard; Pinte, Christophe; Graham, James R.

2007-11-01

Debris disks around main-sequence stars are produced by the destruction of unseen parent bodies. AU Microscopii (GJ 803) is a compelling object to study in the context of disk evolution across different spectral types, as it is an M dwarf whose nearly edge-on disk may be directly compared to that of its A5 V sibling β Pic. We resolve the disk from 8-60 AU in the near-IR JHK' bands at high resolution with the Keck II Telescope and adaptive optics, and develop a data reduction technique for the removal of the stellar point-spread function. We measure a blue color across the near-IR bands, and confirm the presence of substructure in the inner disk. Some of the structural features exhibit wavelength-dependent positions. Recent measurements of the scattered-light polarization indicate the presence of porous grains. The scattering properties of these porous grains have a strong effect on the inferred structure of the disk relative to the majority of previously modeled grain types. Complementing prior work, we use a Monte Carlo radiative transfer code to compare a relatively simple model of the distribution of porous grains to a broad data set, simultaneously fitting midplane surface brightness profiles and the spectral energy distribution. Our model confirms that the large-scale architecture of the disk is consistent with detailed models of steady state grain dynamics. A belt of parent bodies from 35-40 AU produces dust that is then swept outward by stellar wind and radiation. We infer the presence of very small grains in the region exterior to the belt, down to sizes of ~0.05 μm. These sizes are consistent with stellar mass-loss rates M˙*<<102 M˙solar

STEP-TRAMM - A modeling interface for simulating localized rainfall induced shallow landslides and debris flow runout pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Ruette, Jonas; Lehmann, Peter; Fan, Linfeng; Bickel, Samuel; Or, Dani

2017-04-01

Landslides and subsequent debris-flows initiated by rainfall represent a ubiquitous natural hazard in steep mountainous regions. We integrated a landslide hydro-mechanical triggering model and associated debris flow runout pathways with a graphical user interface (GUI) to represent these natural hazards in a wide range of catchments over the globe. The STEP-TRAMM GUI provides process-based locations and sizes of landslides patterns using digital elevation models (DEM) from SRTM database (30 m resolution) linked with soil maps from global database SoilGrids (250 m resolution) and satellite based information on rainfall statistics for the selected region. In a preprocessing step STEP-TRAMM models soil depth distribution and complements soil information that jointly capture key hydrological and mechanical properties relevant to local soil failure representation. In the presentation we will discuss feature of this publicly available platform and compare landslide and debris flow patterns for different regions considering representative intense rainfall events. Model outcomes will be compared for different spatial and temporal resolutions to test applicability of web-based information on elevation and rainfall for hazard assessment.

Wildfire-related debris-flow initiation processes, Storm King Mountain, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, S.H.; Kirkham, R.M.; Parise, M.

2001-01-01

A torrential rainstorm on September 1, 1994 at the recently burned hillslopes of Storm King Mountain, CO, resulted in the generation of debris flows from every burned drainage basin. Maps (1:5000 scale) of bedrock and surficial materials and of the debris-flow paths, coupled with a 10-m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of topography, are used to evaluate the processes that generated fire-related debris flows in this setting. These evaluations form the basis for a descriptive model for fire-related debris-flow initiation. The prominent paths left by the debris flows originated in 0- and 1st-order hollows or channels. Discrete soil-slip scars do not occur at the heads of these paths. Although 58 soil-slip scars were mapped on hillslopes in the burned basins, material derived from these soil slips accounted for only about 7% of the total volume of material deposited at canyon mouths. This fact, combined with observations of significant erosion of hillslope materials, suggests that a runoff-dominated process of progressive sediment entrainment by surface runoff, rather than infiltration-triggered failure of discrete soil slips, was the primary mechanism of debris-flow initiation. A paucity of channel incision, along with observations of extensive hillslope erosion, indicates that a significant proportion of material in the debris flows was derived from the hillslopes, with a smaller contribution from the channels. Because of the importance of runoff-dominated rather than infiltration-dominated processes in the generation of these fire-related debris flows, the runoff-contributing area that extends upslope from the point of debris-flow initiation to the drainage divide, and its gradient, becomes a critical constraint in debris-flow initiation. Slope-area thresholds for fire-related debris-flow initiation from Storm King Mountain are defined by functions of the form Acr(tan ??)3 = S, where Acr is the critical area extending upslope from the initiation location to the drainage divide, and tan ?? is its gradient. The thresholds vary with different materials. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

DebriSat - A Planned Laboratory-Based Satellite Impact Experiment for Breakup Fragment Characterizations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, Jer-Chyi; Clark, S.; Fitz-Coy, N.; Huynh, T.; Opiela, J.; Polk, M.; Roebuck, B.; Rushing, R.; Sorge, M.; Werremeyer, M.

2013-01-01

The goal of the DebriSat project is to characterize fragments generated by a hypervelocity collision involving a modern satellite in low Earth orbit (LEO). The DebriSat project will update and expand upon the information obtained in the 1992 Satellite Orbital Debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT), which characterized the breakup of a 1960 s US Navy Transit satellite. There are three phases to this project: the design and fabrication of DebriSat - an engineering model representing a modern, 60-cm/50-kg class LEO satellite; conduction of a laboratory-based hypervelocity impact to catastrophically break up the satellite; and characterization of the properties of breakup fragments down to 2 mm in size. The data obtained, including fragment size, area-to-mass ratio, density, shape, material composition, optical properties, and radar cross-section distributions, will be used to supplement the DoD s and NASA s satellite breakup models to better describe the breakup outcome of a modern satellite.

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Mars: Wind, Dust Sand, and Debris

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

The session "Mars: Wind, Dust Sand, and Debris" included: Mars Exploration Rovers: Laboratory Simulations of Aeolian Interactions; Thermal and Spectral Analysis of an Intracrater Dune Field in Amazonis Planitia; How High is that Dune? A Comparison of Methods Used to Constrain the Morphometry of Aeolian Bedforms on Mars; Dust Devils on Mars: Scaling of Dust Flux Based on Laboratory Simulations; A Close Encounter with a Terrestrial Dust Devil; Interpretation of Wind Direction from Eolian Features: Herschel Crater, Mars Erosion Rates at the Viking 2 Landing Site; Mars Dust: Characterization of Particle Size and Electrostatic Charge Distributions; Simple Non-fluvial Models of Planetary Surface Modification, with Application to Mars; Comparison of Geomorphically Determined Winds with a General Circulation Model: Herschel Crater, Mars; Analysis of Martian Debris Aprons in Eastern Hellas Using THEMIS; Origin of Martian Northern Hemisphere Mid-Latitude Lobate Debris Aprons; Debris Aprons in the Tempe/Mareotis Region of Mars;and Constraining Flow Dynamics of Mass Movements on Earth and Mars.

Orbital debris and meteoroids: Results from retrieved spacecraft surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandeville, J. C.

1993-08-01

Near-Earth space contains natural and man-made particles, whose size distribution ranges from submicron sized particles to cm sized objects. This environment causes a grave threat to space missions, mainly for future manned or long duration missions. Several experiments devoted to the study of this environment have been recently retrieved from space. Among them several were located on the NASA Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) and on the Russian MIR Space Station. Evaluation of hypervelocity impact features gives valuable information on size distribution of small dust particles present in low Earth orbit. Chemical identification of projectile remnants is possible in many instances, thus allowing a discrimination between extraterrestrial particles and man-made orbital debris. A preliminary comparison of flight data with current modeling of meteoroids and space debris shows a fair agreement. However impact of particles identified as space debris on the trailing side of LDEF, not predicted by the models, could be the result of space debris in highly excentric orbits, probably associated with GTO objects.

Composition and potential origin of marine debris stranded in the Western Indian Ocean on remote Alphonse Island, Seychelles.

PubMed

Duhec, Aurélie V; Jeanne, Richard F; Maximenko, Nikolai; Hafner, Jan

2015-07-15

The abundance, composition, and potential sources of marine debris were investigated on remote Alphonse Island, during the austral winter 2013. A total of 4743 items, weighing 142 kg, were removed from 1 km of windward beach, facing the prevailing southeasterly trade winds. Our study demonstrates the prevalence of plastic debris as a world-wide marine contaminant. Characteristics of the debris suggest it originated primarily from land-based sources. To determine their potential geographic sources we used the Surface Current from Diagnostic model of near-surface ocean currents, forced by satellite sea level and wind data. While preliminary evidence indicated the Southeast Asia to be the main source of the flotsam, the model highlighted Somalia as another potential primary source. Our study concludes that most of the collected debris entered the sea as a result of inadequate waste management and demonstrates how anthropogenic waste can negatively impact even the most remote environments. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The Evolution of the Atmosphere: The Story and the Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fleming, Alastair

2012-01-01

The Earth's primary atmosphere, which was similar to that of the gas giant planets, was soon lost, and a secondary atmosphere was established by outgassing from the early Earth and from colliding debris. The composition of this atmosphere was probably similar to present-day volcanic emissions but with a tiny percentage of photochemically produced…

Instrumental record of debris flow initiation during natural rainfall: Implications for modeling slope stability

Treesearch

David R. Montgomery; Kevin M. Schmidt; William E. Dietrich; Jim McKean

2009-01-01

The middle of a hillslope hollow in the Oregon Coast Range failed and mobilized as a debris flow during heavy rainfall in November 1996. Automated pressure transducers recorded high spatial variability of pore water pressure within the area that mobilized as a debris flow, which initiated where local upward flow from bedrock developed into overlying colluvium....

Limiting the immediate and subsequent hazards associated with wildfires

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeGraff, Jerome V.; Cannon, Susan H.; Parise, Mario

2013-01-01

Similarly, our capability to limit impacts from post-fire debris flows is improving. Empirical models for estimating the probability of debris-flow occurrence, the volume of such an event, and mapping the inundated area, linked with improved definitions of the rainfall conditions that trigger debris flows, can be used to provide critical information for post-fire hazard mitigation and emergency-response planning.

Interagency Report on Orbital Debris, 1995

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1995-01-01

This 1995 report updates the findings and recommendations of the 1989 report and reflects the authors' progress in understanding and managing the orbital debris environment. It provides an up-to-date portrait of their measurement, modeling, and mitigation efforts; and a set of recommendations outlining specific steps they should pursue, both domestically and internationally, to minimize the potential hazard posed by orbital debris.

75 FR 68543 - Airworthiness Directives; Cessna Aircraft Company Models 150, 152, 170, 172, 175, 177, 180, 182...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-08

... first: (1) Visually inspect the pilot and copilot seat rails for dirt and debris that may prevent engagement of the seat locking pins. Before further flight, after any inspection where dirt or debris is found, remove the dirt or debris found. (2) Lift up the forward edge of each seat to eliminate vertical...

Predicting spatial distribution of postfire debris flows and potential consequences for native trout in headwater streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sedell, Edwin R; Gresswell, Bob; McMahon, Thomas E.

2015-01-01

Habitat fragmentation and degradation and invasion of nonnative species have restricted the distribution of native trout. Many trout populations are limited to headwater streams where negative effects of predicted climate change, including reduced stream flow and increased risk of catastrophic fires, may further jeopardize their persistence. Headwater streams in steep terrain are especially susceptible to disturbance associated with postfire debris flows, which have led to local extirpation of trout populations in some systems. We conducted a reach-scale spatial analysis of debris-flow risk among 11 high-elevation watersheds of the Colorado Rocky Mountains occupied by isolated populations of Colorado River Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus). Stream reaches at high risk of disturbance by postfire debris flow were identified with the aid of a qualitative model based on 4 primary initiating and transport factors (hillslope gradient, flow accumulation pathways, channel gradient, and valley confinement). This model was coupled with a spatially continuous survey of trout distributions in these stream networks to assess the predicted extent of trout population disturbances related to debris flows. In the study systems, debris-flow potential was highest in the lower and middle reaches of most watersheds. Colorado River Cutthroat Trout occurred in areas of high postfire debris-flow risk, but they were never restricted to those areas. Postfire debris flows could extirpate trout from local reaches in these watersheds, but trout populations occupy refugia that should allow recolonization of interconnected, downstream reaches. Specific results of our study may not be universally applicable, but our risk assessment approach can be applied to assess postfire debris-flow risk for stream reaches in other watersheds.

Development and maintenance of a telescoping debris flow fan in response to human-induced fan surface channelization, Chalk Creek Valley Natural Debris Flow Laboratory, Colorado, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wasklewicz, T.; Scheinert, C.

2016-01-01

Channel change has been a constant theme throughout William L. Graf's research career. Graf's work has examined channel changes in the context of natural environmental fluctuations, but more often has focused on quantifying channel change in the context of anthropogenic modifications. Here, we consider how channelization of a debris flows along a bajada has perpetuated and sustained the development of 'telescoping' alluvial fan. Two-dimensional debris-flow modeling shows the importance of the deeply entrenched channelized flow in the development of a telescoping alluvial fan. GIS analyses of repeat (five different debris flows), high-resolution (5 cm) digital elevation models (DEMs) generated from repeat terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) data elucidate sediment and topographic dynamics of the new telescoping portion of the alluvial fan (the embryonic fan). Flow constriction from channelization helps to perpetuate debris-flow runout and to maintain the embryonic fan and telescoping nature of the alluvial fan complex. Embryonic fan development, in response to five debris flows, proceeds with a major portion of the flows depositing on the southern portion of the embryonic fan. The third through the fifth debris flows also begin to shift some deposition to the northern portion of the embryonic. The transfer of sediment from a higher portion of the embryonic fan to a lower portion continues currently on the embryonic fan. While channelized flow has been shown to be critical to the maintenance of the telescoping fan, the flow constriction has led to higher than background levels of sediment deposition in Chalk Creek, a tributary of the Arkansas River. A majority of the sediment from each debris flow is incorporated into Chalk Creek as opposed to being stored on the embryonic fan.

Observations of Human-Made Debris in Earth Orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cowardia, Heather

2011-01-01

Orbital debris is defined as any human-made object in orbit about the Earth that no longer serves a useful purpose. Beginning in 1957 with the launch of Sputnik 1, there have been more than 4,700 launches, with each launch increasing the potential for impacts from orbital debris. Almost 55 years later there are over 16,000 catalogued objects in orbit over 10 cm in size. Agencies world-wide have realized this is a growing issue for all users of the space environment. To address the orbital debris issue, the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) was established to collaborate on monitoring, characterizing, and modeling orbital debris, as well as formulating policies and procedures to help control the risk of collisions and population growth. One area of fundamental interest is measurements of the space debris environment. NASA has been utilizing radar and optical measurements to survey the different orbital regimes of space debris for over 25 years, as well as using returned surfaces to aid in determining the flux and size of debris that are too small to detect with ground-based sensors. This paper will concentrate on the optical techniques used by NASA to observe the space debris environment, specifically in the Geosynchronous earth Orbit (GEO) region where radar capability is severely limited.

An Assessment of the Current LEO Debris Environment and the Need for Active Debris Removal

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liou, Jer-Chyi

2010-01-01

The anti-satellite test on the Fengun-1 C weather satellite in early 2007 and the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 in 2009 dramatically altered the landscape of the human-made orbital debris environment in the low Earth orbit (LEO). The two events generated approximately 5500 fragments large enough to be tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network. Those fragments account for more than 60% increase to the debris population in LEO. However, even before the ASAT test, model analyses already indicated that the debris population (for those larger than 10 cm) in LEO had reached a point where the population would continue to increase, due to collisions among existing objects, even without any future launches. The conclusion implies that as satellites continue to be launched and unexpected breakup events continue to occur, commonly-adopted mitigation measures will not be able to stop the collision-driven population growth. To remediate the debris environment in LEO, active debris removal must be considered. This presentation will provide an updated assessment of the debris environment after the Iridium 33/Cosmos 2251 collision, an analysis of several future environment projections based on different scenarios, and a projection of collision activities in LEO in the near future. The need to use active debris removal to stabilize future debris environment will be demonstrated and the effectiveness of various active debris removal strategies will be quantified.

Estimated probability of postwildfire debris flows in the 2012 Whitewater-Baldy Fire burn area, southwestern New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillery, Anne C.; Matherne, Anne Marie; Verdin, Kristine L.

2012-01-01

In May and June 2012, the Whitewater-Baldy Fire burned approximately 1,200 square kilometers (300,000 acres) of the Gila National Forest, in southwestern New Mexico. The burned landscape is now at risk of damage from postwildfire erosion, such as that caused by debris flows and flash floods. This report presents a preliminary hazard assessment of the debris-flow potential from 128 basins burned by the Whitewater-Baldy Fire. A pair of empirical hazard-assessment models developed by using data from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain Western United States was used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and volume of debris flows along the burned area drainage network and for selected drainage basins within the burned area. The models incorporate measures of areal burned extent and severity, topography, soils, and storm rainfall intensity to estimate the probability and volume of debris flows following the fire. In response to the 2-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, modeling indicated that four basins have high probabilities of debris-flow occurrence (greater than or equal to 80 percent). For the 10-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, an additional 14 basins are included, and for the 25-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall, an additional eight basins, 20 percent of the total, have high probabilities of debris-flow occurrence. In addition, probability analysis along the stream segments can identify specific reaches of greatest concern for debris flows within a basin. Basins with a high probability of debris-flow occurrence were concentrated in the west and central parts of the burned area, including tributaries to Whitewater Creek, Mineral Creek, and Willow Creek. Estimated debris-flow volumes ranged from about 3,000-4,000 cubic meters (m3) to greater than 500,000 m3 for all design storms modeled. Drainage basins with estimated volumes greater than 500,000 m3 included tributaries to Whitewater Creek, Willow Creek, Iron Creek, and West Fork Mogollon Creek. Drainage basins with estimated debris-flow volumes greater than 100,000 m3 for the 25-year-recurrence event, 24 percent of the basins modeled, also include tributaries to Deep Creek, Mineral Creek, Gilita Creek, West Fork Gila River, Mogollon Creek, and Turkey Creek, among others. Basins with the highest combined probability and volume relative hazard rankings for the 25-year-recurrence rainfall include tributaries to Whitewater Creek, Mineral Creek, Willow Creek, West Fork Gila River, West Fork Mogollon Creek, and Turkey Creek. Debris flows from Whitewater, Mineral, and Willow Creeks could affect the southwestern New Mexico communities of Glenwood, Alma, and Willow Creek. The maps presented herein may be used to prioritize areas where emergency erosion mitigation or other protective measures may be necessary within a 2- to 3-year period of vulnerability following the Whitewater-Baldy Fire. This work is preliminary and is subject to revision. It is being provided because of the need for timely "best science" information. The assessment herein is provided on the condition that neither the U.S. Geological Survey nor the U.S. Government may be held liable for any damages resulting from the authorized or unauthorized use of the assessment.

Space Transportation System Liftoff Debris Mitigation Process Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitchell, Michael; Riley, Christopher

2011-01-01

Liftoff debris is a top risk to the Space Shuttle Vehicle. To manage the Liftoff debris risk, the Space Shuttle Program created a team with in the Propulsion Systems Engineering & Integration Office. The Shutt le Liftoff Debris Team harnesses the Systems Engineering process to i dentify, assess, mitigate, and communicate the Liftoff debris risk. T he Liftoff Debris Team leverages off the technical knowledge and expe rtise of engineering groups across multiple NASA centers to integrate total system solutions. These solutions connect the hardware and ana lyses to identify and characterize debris sources and zones contribut ing to the Liftoff debris risk. The solutions incorporate analyses sp anning: the definition and modeling of natural and induced environmen ts; material characterizations; statistical trending analyses, imager y based trajectory analyses; debris transport analyses, and risk asse ssments. The verification and validation of these analyses are bound by conservative assumptions and anchored by testing and flight data. The Liftoff debris risk mitigation is managed through vigilant collab orative work between the Liftoff Debris Team and Launch Pad Operation s personnel and through the management of requirements, interfaces, r isk documentation, configurations, and technical data. Furthermore, o n day of launch, decision analysis is used to apply the wealth of ana lyses to case specific identified risks. This presentation describes how the Liftoff Debris Team applies Systems Engineering in their proce sses to mitigate risk and improve the safety of the Space Shuttle Veh icle.

The extreme mobility of debris avalanches: A new model of transport mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perinotto, Hélène; Schneider, Jean-Luc; Bachèlery, Patrick; Le Bourdonnec, François-Xavier; Famin, Vincent; Michon, Laurent

2015-12-01

Large rockslide-debris avalanches, resulting from flank collapses that shape volcanoes and mountains on Earth and other object of the solar system, are rapid and dangerous gravity-driven granular flows that travel abnormal distances. During the last 50 years, numerous physical models have been put forward to explain their extreme mobility. The principal models are based on fluidization, lubrication, or dynamic disintegration. However, these processes remain poorly constrained. To identify precisely the transport mechanisms during debris avalanches, we examined morphometric (fractal dimension and circularity), grain size, and exoscopic characteristics of the various types of particles (clasts and matrix) from volcanic debris avalanche deposits of La Réunion Island (Indian Ocean). From these data we demonstrate for the first time that syn-transport dynamic disintegration continuously operates with the increasing runout distance from the source down to a grinding limit of 500 µm. Below this limit, the particle size reduction exclusively results from their attrition by frictional interactions. Consequently, the exceptional mobility of debris avalanches may be explained by the combined effect of elastic energy release during the dynamic disintegration of the larger clasts and frictional reduction within the matrix due to interactions between the finer particles.

Large craters on the meteoroid and space debris impact experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Humes, Donald H.

1991-01-01

The distribution around the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) of 532 large craters in the Al plates from the Meteoroid and Space Debris Impact Experiment (S0001) is discussed along with 74 additional large craters in Al plates donated to the Meteoroid and Debris Special Investigation Group by other LDEF experimenters. The craters are 0.5 mm in diameter and larger. Crater shape is discussed. The number of craters and their distribution around the spacecraft are compared with values predicted with models of the meteoroid environment and the manmade orbital debris environment.

Estimates of Marine Debris Accumulation on Beaches Are Strongly Affected by the Temporal Scale of Sampling

PubMed Central

Smith, Stephen D. A.; Markic, Ana

2013-01-01

Marine debris is a global issue with impacts on marine organisms, ecological processes, aesthetics and economies. Consequently, there is increasing interest in quantifying the scale of the problem. Accumulation rates of debris on beaches have been advocated as a useful proxy for at-sea debris loads. However, here we show that past studies may have vastly underestimated the quantity of available debris because sampling was too infrequent. Our study of debris on a small beach in eastern Australia indicates that estimated daily accumulation rates decrease rapidly with increasing intervals between surveys, and the quantity of available debris is underestimated by 50% after only 3 days and by an order of magnitude after 1 month. As few past studies report sampling frequencies of less than a month, estimates of the scale of the marine debris problem need to be critically re-examined and scaled-up accordingly. These results reinforce similar, recent work advocating daily sampling as a standard approach for accurate quantification of available debris in coastal habitats. We outline an alternative approach whereby site-specific accumulation models are generated to correct bias when daily sampling is impractical. PMID:24367607