Decoupling processes and scales of shoreline morphodynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hapke, Cheryl J.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Henderson, Rachel E.; Schwab, William C.; Nelson, Timothy R.

2016-01-01

Behavior of coastal systems on time scales ranging from single storm events to years and decades is controlled by both small-scale sediment transport processes and large-scale geologic, oceanographic, and morphologic processes. Improved understanding of coastal behavior at multiple time scales is required for refining models that predict potential erosion hazards and for coastal management planning and decision-making. Here we investigate the primary controls on shoreline response along a geologically-variable barrier island on time scales resolving extreme storms and decadal variations over a period of nearly one century. An empirical orthogonal function analysis is applied to a time series of shoreline positions at Fire Island, NY to identify patterns of shoreline variance along the length of the island. We establish that there are separable patterns of shoreline behavior that represent response to oceanographic forcing as well as patterns that are not explained by this forcing. The dominant shoreline behavior occurs over large length scales in the form of alternating episodes of shoreline retreat and advance, presumably in response to storms cycles. Two secondary responses include long-term response that is correlated to known geologic variations of the island and the other reflects geomorphic patterns with medium length scale. Our study also includes the response to Hurricane Sandy and a period of post-storm recovery. It was expected that the impacts from Hurricane Sandy would disrupt long-term trends and spatial patterns. We found that the response to Sandy at Fire Island is not notable or distinguishable from several other large storms of the prior decade.

Universal fractal scaling in stream chemistry and its implications for solute transport and water quality trend detection

PubMed Central

Kirchner, James W.; Neal, Colin

2013-01-01

The chemical dynamics of lakes and streams affect their suitability as aquatic habitats and as water supplies for human needs. Because water quality is typically monitored only weekly or monthly, however, the higher-frequency dynamics of stream chemistry have remained largely invisible. To illuminate a wider spectrum of water quality dynamics, rainfall and streamflow were sampled in two headwater catchments at Plynlimon, Wales, at 7-h intervals for 1–2 y and weekly for over two decades, and were analyzed for 45 solutes spanning the periodic table from H+ to U. Here we show that in streamflow, all 45 of these solutes, including nutrients, trace elements, and toxic metals, exhibit fractal 1/fα scaling on time scales from hours to decades (α = 1.05 ± 0.15, mean ± SD). We show that this fractal scaling can arise through dispersion of random chemical inputs distributed across a catchment. These 1/f time series are non–self-averaging: monthly, yearly, or decadal averages are approximately as variable, one from the next, as individual measurements taken hours or days apart, defying naive statistical expectations. (By contrast, stream discharge itself is nonfractal, and self-averaging on time scales of months and longer.) In the solute time series, statistically significant trends arise much more frequently, on all time scales, than one would expect from conventional t statistics. However, these same trends are poor predictors of future trends—much poorer than one would expect from their calculated uncertainties. Our results illustrate how 1/f time series pose fundamental challenges to trend analysis and change detection in environmental systems. PMID:23842090

Universal fractal scaling in stream chemistry and its implications for solute transport and water quality trend detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchner, James W.; Neal, Colin

2013-07-01

The chemical dynamics of lakes and streams affect their suitability as aquatic habitats and as water supplies for human needs. Because water quality is typically monitored only weekly or monthly, however, the higher-frequency dynamics of stream chemistry have remained largely invisible. To illuminate a wider spectrum of water quality dynamics, rainfall and streamflow were sampled in two headwater catchments at Plynlimon, Wales, at 7-h intervals for 1-2 y and weekly for over two decades, and were analyzed for 45 solutes spanning the periodic table from H+ to U. Here we show that in streamflow, all 45 of these solutes, including nutrients, trace elements, and toxic metals, exhibit fractal 1/fα scaling on time scales from hours to decades (α = 1.05 ± 0.15, mean ± SD). We show that this fractal scaling can arise through dispersion of random chemical inputs distributed across a catchment. These 1/f time series are non-self-averaging: monthly, yearly, or decadal averages are approximately as variable, one from the next, as individual measurements taken hours or days apart, defying naive statistical expectations. (By contrast, stream discharge itself is nonfractal, and self-averaging on time scales of months and longer.) In the solute time series, statistically significant trends arise much more frequently, on all time scales, than one would expect from conventional t statistics. However, these same trends are poor predictors of future trends-much poorer than one would expect from their calculated uncertainties. Our results illustrate how 1/f time series pose fundamental challenges to trend analysis and change detection in environmental systems.

Consistency of near-death experience accounts over two decades: are reports embellished over time?

PubMed

Greyson, Bruce

2007-06-01

"Near-death experiences," commonly reported after clinical death and resuscitation, may require intervention and, if reliable, may elucidate altered brain functioning under extreme stress. It has been speculated that accounts of near-death experiences are exaggerated over the years. The objective of this study was to test the reliability over two decades of accounts of near-death experiences. Seventy-two patients with near-death experience who had completed the NDE scale in the 1980s (63% of the original cohort still alive) completed the scale a second time, without reference to the original scale administration. The primary outcome was differences in NDE scale scores on the two administrations. The secondary outcome was the statistical association between differences in scores and years elapsed between the two administrations. Mean scores did not change significantly on the total NDE scale, its 4 factors, or its 16 items. Correlation coefficients between scores on the two administrations were significant at P<0.001 for the total NDE scale, for its 4 factors, and for its 16 items. Correlation coefficients between score changes and time elapsed between the two administrations were not significant for the total NDE scale, for its 4 factors, or for its 16 items. Contrary to expectation, accounts of near-death experiences, and particularly reports of their positive affect, were not embellished over a period of almost two decades. These data support the reliability of near-death experience accounts.

Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, Andrea; Catalano, Franco; De Felice, Matteo; Van Den Hurk, Bart; Doblas Reyes, Francisco; Boussetta, Souhail; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Miller, Paul

2016-04-01

The EC-Earth earth system model has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning retrospective predictions at the decadal (5-years), seasonal and sub-seasonal time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation cover tends to correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and sub-seasonal time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in the surface evapotranspiration.

Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, A.; Catalano, F.; De Felice, M.; van den Hurk, B.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Miller, P. A.

2016-12-01

The European consortium earth system model (EC-Earth; http://www.ec-earth.org) has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (20th Century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal and weather time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation cover tends to correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in the surface evapotranspiration.

Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, Andrea; Catalano, Franco; De Felice, Matteo; Van Den Hurk, Bart; Doblas Reyes, Francisco; Boussetta, Souhail; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Miller, Paul A.

2017-08-01

The EC-Earth earth system model has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (twentieth century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal and weather time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation cover tends to correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2 m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in the surface evapotranspiration.

Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, Andrea; Catalano, Franco; De Felice, Matteo; Van Den Hurk, Bart; Doblas Reyes, Francisco; Boussetta, Souhail; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Miller, Paul A.

2017-04-01

The EC-Earth earth system model has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (20th Century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal and weather time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation cover tends to correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in the surface evapotranspiration.

Long-term reconstructions of total solar irradiance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krivova, Natalie; Solanki, Sami K.; Dasi Espuig, Maria

2012-07-01

Solar irradiance is the main external driver of the Earth's climate, although its relative contribution compared to other internal and anthropogenic factors is not yet well determined. Variations of total solar irradiance have being measured for over three decades and are relatively well understood. Reconstructions of the irradiance into the past remain, however, rather uncertain. In particular, the magnitude of the secular change is highly debated. The reason is the lack of direct and well-sampled proxies of solar magnetic activity on time scales longer than a few decades. Reconstructions on time scales of centuries rely on sunspot observations available since 1610. Reconstructions on millennial time scales use concentrations of the cosmogenic isotopes in terrestrial archives. We will review long-term reconstructions of the solar irradiance using the SATIRE set of models, compare them with other recent models and discuss the remaining uncertainties.

CYCLIC THERMAL SIGNATURE IN A GLOBAL MHD SIMULATION OF SOLAR CONVECTION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cossette, Jean-Francois; Charbonneau, Paul; Smolarkiewicz, Piotr K.

Global magnetohydrodynamical simulations of the solar convection zone have recently achieved cyclic large-scale axisymmetric magnetic fields undergoing polarity reversals on a decadal time scale. In this Letter, we show that these simulations also display a thermal convective luminosity that varies in-phase with the magnetic cycle, and trace this modulation to deep-seated magnetically mediated changes in convective flow patterns. Within the context of the ongoing debate on the physical origin of the observed 11 yr variations in total solar irradiance, such a signature supports the thesis according to which all, or part, of the variations on decadal time scales and longermore » could be attributed to a global modulation of the Sun's internal thermal structure by magnetic activity.« less

Decadal climate variability and the spatial organization of deep hydrological drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barros, Ana P.; Hodes, Jared L.; Arulraj, Malarvizhi

2017-10-01

Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), wavelet, and wavelet coherence analysis of baseflow time-series from 126 streamgauges (record-length > 50 years; small and mid-size watersheds) in the US South Atlantic (USSA) region reveal three principal modes of space-time variability: (1) a region-wide dominant mode tied to annual precipitation that exhibits non-stationary decadal variability after the mid 1990s concurrent with the warming of the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation); (2) two spatial modes, east and west of the Blue Ridge, exhibiting nonstationary seasonal to sub-decadal variability before and after 1990 attributed to complex nonlinear interactions between ENSO and AMO impacting precipitation and recharge; and (3) deep (decadal) and shallow (< 6 years) space-time modes of groundwater variability separating basins with high and low annual mean baseflow fraction (MBF) by physiographic region. The results explain the propagation of multiscale climate variability into the regional groundwater system through recharge modulated by topography, geomorphology, and geology to determine the spatial organization of baseflow variability at decadal (and longer) time-scales, that is, deep hydrologic drought. Further, these findings suggest potential for long-range predictability of hydrological drought in small and mid-size watersheds, where baseflow is a robust indicator of nonstationary yield capacity of the underlying groundwater basins. Predictive associations between climate mode indices and deep baseflow (e.g. persistent decreases of the decadal-scale components of baseflow during the cold phase of the AMO in the USSA) can be instrumental toward improving forecast lead-times and long-range mitigation of severe drought.

Characteristic variations of sea surface temperature with multiple time scales in the North Pacific

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tanimoto, Youichi; Hanawa, Kimio; Toba, Yoshiaki

1993-06-01

It is unclear whether the recent increases in global temperatures are really due to the increase of greenhouse gases or are a manifestation of natural variability. Temporal evolution and spectral structure of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Pacific over the last 37 years are investigated on the three characteristic time scales: shorter than 24 months (HF), 24-60 months (ES), and longer than 60 months (DC). The leading empirical-orthogonal function (EOF) for the DC time scale is characterized by a zonally elongated monopole centered at around 40[degrees]N, 180[degrees]. The leading EOF for the HF time scale is somewhatmore » similar to that for the DC time scale, although there are two centers of action with the same polarity at the mid and western Pacific. The leading EOF for the ES time scale, however, exhibits a different pattern whose center of action at the mid Pacific is located farther southeastward. In the time evolution of the SST anomalies associated with the leading EOF of the DC time scale, several anomaly periods can be identified that last five years or longer. The transition from a persistent period to another with the opposite polarity is generally very brief, except for the one that lasts throughout the late 1960s. The EOF analysis was repeated separately on these persistent anomaly periods and the long transition period. The spatial structure of the leading EOF of the SST variability with the ES time scale is found to be sensitive to the polarity of the decadal anomaly. These results are suggestive of the possible influence of the decadal SST variability upon the spatial structure of the variability with shorter time scales. 31 refs., 8 figs.« less

Impact of the time scale of model sensitivity response on coupled model parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Chang; Zhang, Shaoqing; Li, Shan; Liu, Zhengyu

2017-11-01

That a model has sensitivity responses to parameter uncertainties is a key concept in implementing model parameter estimation using filtering theory and methodology. Depending on the nature of associated physics and characteristic variability of the fluid in a coupled system, the response time scales of a model to parameters can be different, from hourly to decadal. Unlike state estimation, where the update frequency is usually linked with observational frequency, the update frequency for parameter estimation must be associated with the time scale of the model sensitivity response to the parameter being estimated. Here, with a simple coupled model, the impact of model sensitivity response time scales on coupled model parameter estimation is studied. The model includes characteristic synoptic to decadal scales by coupling a long-term varying deep ocean with a slow-varying upper ocean forced by a chaotic atmosphere. Results show that, using the update frequency determined by the model sensitivity response time scale, both the reliability and quality of parameter estimation can be improved significantly, and thus the estimated parameters make the model more consistent with the observation. These simple model results provide a guideline for when real observations are used to optimize the parameters in a coupled general circulation model for improving climate analysis and prediction initialization.

Remote and Local Influences in Forecasting Pacific SST: a Linear Inverse Model and a Multimodel Ensemble Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faggiani Dias, D.; Subramanian, A. C.; Zanna, L.; Miller, A. J.

2017-12-01

Sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific sector is well known to vary on time scales from seasonal to decadal, and the ability to predict these SST fluctuations has many societal and economical benefits. Therefore, we use a suite of statistical linear inverse models (LIMs) to understand the remote and local SST variability that influences SST predictions over the North Pacific region and further improve our understanding on how the long-observed SST record can help better guide multi-model ensemble forecasts. Observed monthly SST anomalies in the Pacific sector (between 15oS and 60oN) are used to construct different regional LIMs for seasonal to decadal prediction. The forecast skills of the LIMs are compared to that from two operational forecast systems in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) revealing that the LIM has better skill in the Northeastern Pacific than NMME models. The LIM is also found to have comparable forecast skill for SST in the Tropical Pacific with NMME models. This skill, however, is highly dependent on the initialization month, with forecasts initialized during the summer having better skill than those initialized during the winter. The forecast skill with LIM is also influenced by the verification period utilized to make the predictions, likely due to the changing character of El Niño in the 20th century. The North Pacific seems to be a source of predictability for the Tropics on seasonal to interannual time scales, while the Tropics act to worsen the skill for the forecast in the North Pacific. The data were also bandpassed into seasonal, interannual and decadal time scales to identify the relationships between time scales using the structure of the propagator matrix. For the decadal component, this coupling occurs the other way around: Tropics seem to be a source of predictability for the Extratropics, but the Extratropics don't improve the predictability for the Tropics. These results indicate the importance of temporal scale interactions in improving predictability on decadal timescales. Hence, we show that LIMs are not only useful as benchmarks for estimates of statistical skill, but also to isolate contributions to the forecast skills from different timescales, spatial scales or even model components.

Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts. A Review in the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Mohino, Elsa; Mechoso, Carlos R.; Caminade, Cyril; Biasutti, Michela; Gaetani, Marco; Garcia-Serrano, J.; Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry; Xue, Yongkang;

Decadal changes in north-American tundra plant communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villarreal, S.; Johnson, D. R.; Webber, P.; Ebert-May, D.; Hollister, R. D.; Tweedie, C. E.

2013-12-01

Improving our understanding of how tundra vegetation responds to environmental change over decadal time scales is important. Tundra plants and ecosystems are well-recognized for their susceptibility to be impacted by climate warming; changes in land-atmosphere carbon, water, and energy balance in tundra landscapes have the potential to impact regional to global-scale climate, and relatively few studies examining change in tundra landscapes have spanned decadal time scales. The majority of our understanding of tundra vegetation responses to environmental change has been derived from studies along environmental gradients, experimental manipulations, and modeling. This study synthesizes the rescue and resampling of historic vegetation study sites established during the 1960's and 1970's at three arctic tundra locations (Baffin Island, Canada, Barrow, Alaska, and Atqasuk, Alaska), and one alpine tundra location (Niwot Ridge, Colorado). We conducted a meta-analysis to examine decadal changes in plant community composition, species richness, species evenness, and species diversity at all locations and for three broad soil moisture classes (dry, moist, wet). For all sites, except Baffin Island, change over the last decade was compared with long term change to determine if rates of change have altered over time. Change in plant community composition was most dramatic at Barrow and Baffin Island (P < 0.05), while less change was detected at Niwot Ridge (P < 0.10), and Atqasuk. Plant communities also changed for all soil moisture classes. The rate of change at Barrow and in moist soil classes appears to have quickened over the last decade. Rates of early plant successional change at Baffin Island appear to have quickened relative to rates documented in the mid 1960's. There were no changes in species richness at any of the locations, but there appears to be acceleration in the loss of species richness for dry and moist tundra. Species evenness increased at Atqasuk and in dry and wet tundra but decreased at Niwot Ridge in moist tundra. A loss in species diversity was detected in moist tundra in the decadal study, while diversity increased for dry and wet tundra. Baffin Island was the only location to show evidence of an increase in species diversity. This study appears to be among the first to document an acceleration of vegetation change in tundra landscapes using decadal time scale observational data, and highlights the importance of both sustained monitoring, and the rescue and resampling of historic sites, which have proven to be effective in advancing our knowledge of vegetation change dynamics. This project was a contribution to the International Polar Year Back to the Future project (IPY#512).

Continent-scale global change attribution in European birds - combining annual and decadal time scales.

PubMed

Jørgensen, Peter Søgaard; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Thorup, Kasper; Tøttrup, Anders P; Chylarecki, Przemysław; Jiguet, Frédéric; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Noble, David G; Reif, Jiri; Schmid, Hans; van Turnhout, Chris; Burfield, Ian J; Foppen, Ruud; Voříšek, Petr; van Strien, Arco; Gregory, Richard D; Rahbek, Carsten

2016-02-01

Species attributes are commonly used to infer impacts of environmental change on multiyear species trends, e.g. decadal changes in population size. However, by themselves attributes are of limited value in global change attribution since they do not measure the changing environment. A broader foundation for attributing species responses to global change may be achieved by complementing an attributes-based approach by one estimating the relationship between repeated measures of organismal and environmental changes over short time scales. To assess the benefit of this multiscale perspective, we investigate the recent impact of multiple environmental changes on European farmland birds, here focusing on climate change and land use change. We analyze more than 800 time series from 18 countries spanning the past two decades. Analysis of long-term population growth rates documents simultaneous responses that can be attributed to both climate change and land-use change, including long-term increases in populations of hot-dwelling species and declines in long-distance migrants and farmland specialists. In contrast, analysis of annual growth rates yield novel insights into the potential mechanisms driving long-term climate induced change. In particular, we find that birds are affected by winter, spring, and summer conditions depending on the distinct breeding phenology that corresponds to their migratory strategy. Birds in general benefit from higher temperatures or higher primary productivity early on or in the peak of the breeding season with the largest effect sizes observed in cooler parts of species' climatic ranges. Our results document the potential of combining time scales and integrating both species attributes and environmental variables for global change attribution. We suggest such an approach will be of general use when high-resolution time series are available in large-scale biodiversity surveys. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

MiKlip-PRODEF: Probabilistic Decadal Forecast for Central and Western Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyers, Mark; Haas, Rabea; Ludwig, Patrick; Pinto, Joaquim

2013-04-01

The demand for skilful climate predictions on time-scales of several years to decades has increased in recent years, in particular for economic, societal and political terms. Within the BMBF MiKlip consortium, a decadal prediction system on the global to local scale is currently being developed. The subproject PRODEF is part of the MiKlip-Module C, which aims at the regionalisation of decadal predictability for Central and Western Europe. In PRODEF, a combined statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) and a probabilistic forecast tool are developed and applied to the new Earth system model of the Max-Planck Institute Hamburg (MPI-ESM), which is part of the CMIP5 experiment. Focus is given on the decadal predictability of windstorms, related wind gusts as well as wind energy potentials. SDD combines the benefits of both high resolution dynamical downscaling and purely statistical downscaling of GCM output. Hence, the SDD approach is used to obtain a very large ensemble of highly resolved decadal forecasts. With respect to the focal points of PRODEF, a clustering of temporal evolving atmospheric fields, a circulation weather type (CWT) analysis, and a storm damage indices analysis is applied to the full ensemble of the decadal hindcast experiments of the MPI-ESM in its lower resolution (MPI-ESM-LR). The ensemble consists of up to ten realisations per yearly initialised decadal hindcast experiments for the period 1960-2010 (altogether 287 realisations). Representatives of CWTs / clusters and single storm episodes are dynamical downscaled with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM with a horizontal resolution of 0.22°. For each model grid point, the distributions of the local climate parameters (e.g. surface wind gusts) are determined for different periods (e.g. each decades) by recombining dynamical downscaled episodes weighted with the respective weather type frequencies. The applicability of the SDD approach is illustrated with examples of decadal forecasts of the MPI-ESM. We are able to perform a bias correction of the frequencies of large scale weather types and to quantify the uncertainties of decadal predictability on large and local scale arising from different initial conditions. Further, probability density functions of local parameters like e.g. wind gusts for different periods and decades derived from the SDD approach is compared to observations and reanalysis data. Skill scores are used to quantify the decadal predictability for different leading time periods and to analyse whether the SDD approach shows systematic errors for some regions.

Tracking the Pacific Decadal Precession

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Bruce T.; Furtado, Jason C.; Di Lorenzo, Emanuele; Short Gianotti, Daniel J.

2017-03-01

Events of recent years—including extended droughts across California, record fires across western Canada, and destabilization of marine ecosystems—highlight the profound impact of multiannual to decadal-scale climate shifts upon physical, biological, and socioeconomic systems. While previous research has focused on the influence of decadal-scale climate oscillations such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation/Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, recent research has revealed the presence of a quasi-decadal mode of climate variability that, unlike the quasi-stationary standing wave-like structure of the oscillatory modes, involves a progression of atmospheric pressure anomalies around the North Pacific, which has been termed the Pacific Decadal Precession (PDP). In this paper we develop a set of methods to track the spatial and temporal evolutions of the PDP within historical observations as well as numerical model simulations. In addition, we provide a method that approximates the time evolution of the PDP across the full period of available data for real-time monitoring of the PDP. Through the development of these tracking methods, we hope to provide the community with a consistent framework for future analysis and diagnosis of the PDP's characteristics and underlying processes, thereby avoiding the use of different, and disparate, phenomenological- and mathematical-based indices that can confound our understanding of the PDP and its evolution.

Wavelet-based time series bootstrap model for multidecadal streamflow simulation using climate indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erkyihun, Solomon Tassew; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Zagona, Edith; Lall, Upmanu; Nowak, Kenneth

2016-05-01

A model to generate stochastic streamflow projections conditioned on quasi-oscillatory climate indices such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) is presented. Recognizing that each climate index has underlying band-limited components that contribute most of the energy of the signals, we first pursue a wavelet decomposition of the signals to identify and reconstruct these features from annually resolved historical data and proxy based paleoreconstructions of each climate index covering the period from 1650 to 2012. A K-Nearest Neighbor block bootstrap approach is then developed to simulate the total signal of each of these climate index series while preserving its time-frequency structure and marginal distributions. Finally, given the simulated climate signal time series, a K-Nearest Neighbor bootstrap is used to simulate annual streamflow series conditional on the joint state space defined by the simulated climate index for each year. We demonstrate this method by applying it to simulation of streamflow at Lees Ferry gauge on the Colorado River using indices of two large scale climate forcings: Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), which are known to modulate the Colorado River Basin (CRB) hydrology at multidecadal time scales. Skill in stochastic simulation of multidecadal projections of flow using this approach is demonstrated.

Modulation of the SSTA decadal variation on ENSO events and relationships of SSTA With LOD,SOI, etc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, D. C.; Zhou, Y. H.; Liao, X. H.

2007-01-01

Interannual and decadal components of the length of day (LOD), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Sea Surface Temperature anomaly (SSTA) in Nino regions are extracted by band-pass filtering, and used for research of the modulation of the SSTA on the ENSO events. Results show that besides the interannual components, the decadal components in SSTA have strong impacts on monitoring and representing of the ENSO events. When the ENSO events are strong, the modulation of the decadal components of the SSTA tends to prolong the life-time of the events and enlarge the extreme anomalies of the SST, while the ENSO events, which are so weak that they can not be detected by the interannual components of the SSTA, can also be detected with the help of the modulation of the SSTA decadal components. The study further draws attention to the relationships of the SSTA interannual and decadal components with those of LOD, SOI, both of the sea level pressure anomalies (SLPA) and the trade wind anomalies (TWA) in tropic Pacific, and also with those of the axial components of the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and oceanic angular momentum (OAM). Results of the squared coherence and coherent phases among them reveal close connections with the SSTA and almost all of the parameters mentioned above on the interannual time scales, while on the decadal time scale significant connections are among the SSTA and SOI, SLPA, TWA, ?3w and ?3w+v as well, and slight weaker connections between the SSTA and LOD, ?3pib and ?3bp

Climate and wildfires in the North American boreal forest.

PubMed

Macias Fauria, Marc; Johnson, E A

2008-07-12

The area burned in the North American boreal forest is controlled by the frequency of mid-tropospheric blocking highs that cause rapid fuel drying. Climate controls the area burned through changing the dynamics of large-scale teleconnection patterns (Pacific Decadal Oscillation/El Niño Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, PDO/ENSO and AO) that control the frequency of blocking highs over the continent at different time scales. Changes in these teleconnections may be caused by the current global warming. Thus, an increase in temperature alone need not be associated with an increase in area burned in the North American boreal forest. Since the end of the Little Ice Age, the climate has been unusually moist and variable: large fire years have occurred in unusual years, fire frequency has decreased and fire-climate relationships have occurred at interannual to decadal time scales. Prolonged and severe droughts were common in the past and were partly associated with changes in the PDO/ENSO system. Under these conditions, large fire years become common, fire frequency increases and fire-climate relationships occur at decadal to centennial time scales. A suggested return to the drier climate regimes of the past would imply major changes in the temporal dynamics of fire-climate relationships and in area burned, a reduction in the mean age of the forest, and changes in species composition of the North American boreal forest.

Asymmetry of agricultural water consumption in arid regions during alternating decadal scale wet and dry periods: explanation using behavioral economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Fuqiang

2017-04-01

Increase of human water consumption for agriculture and consequent degradation of the ecological environment is a common feature in many arid regions. Understanding the driving mechanisms behind this phenomenon is of critical importance for regional sustainable development. In this study, analyses of temporal patterns of human water consumption are carried out in three hyper-arid inland basins, i.e., Aral Sea Basin in Central Asia, and the Tarim and Heihe River Basins in Northwestern China. Multi-decadal time series of hydrological and human consumption data are divided into decadal sequences of wet and dry years. During the wet phases, the greater water availability inspires economic expansion and human water consumption experiences growth at a rate faster than that of incoming water. During the dry phases, however, the expanded economy (e.g., irrigation land expansion in an agriculture-based economy) has been managed to sustain or even to increase production by over-exploitation of water with sophisticated technologies. Inability to reduce human water consumption at a rate commensurate with the decrease of incoming water supply leads to serious ecosystem degradation. This asymmetric human water consumption response of society to decadal scale hydrologic variability can be explained in terms of prospect theory drawn from behavioral economics, which states that people tend to be risk averse when facing gains and show risk preference when facing losses. In the three socio-hydrological case studies, direct economic gain/loss has relatively low value but high certainty when compared to indirect economic loss/gain (such as environmental or sustainability loss/gain), which has high value but with high uncertainty. According to prospect theory, people tend to gain direct economic benefits at the expense of environmental degradation and at the risk of system collapse. The outcomes of this study have major implications for water resources management at long time scales, and in particular calls for increased understanding of human-water system interactions and feedbacks at the decadal time scale.

Asymmetric variations in the tropical ascending branches of Hadley circulations and the associated mechanisms and effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Bo

2018-03-01

This study investigates the variations in the tropical ascending branches (TABs) of Hadley circulations (HCs) during past decades, using a variety of reanalysis datasets. The northern tropical ascending branch (NTAB) and the southern tropical ascending branch (STAB), which are defined as the ascending branches of the Northern Hemisphere HC and Southern Hemisphere HC, respectively, are identified and analyzed regarding their trends and variability. The reanalysis datasets consistently show a persistent increase in STAB during past decades, whereas they show less consistency in NTAB regarding its decadalto multidecadal variability, which generally features a decreasing trend. These asymmetric trends in STAB and NTAB are attributed to asymmetric trends in the tropical SSTs. The relationship between STAB/NTAB and tropical SSTs is further examined regarding their interannual and decadal- to multidecadal variability. On the interannual time scale, the STAB and NTAB are essentially modulated by the eastern-Pacific type of ENSO, with a strengthened (weakened) STAB (NTAB) under an El Niño condition. On the decadal- to multidecadal time scale, the variability of STAB and NTAB is closely related to the southern tropical SSTs and the meridional asymmetry of global tropical SSTs, respectively. The tropical eastern Pacific SSTs (southern tropical SSTs) dominate the tropical SST-NTAB/STAB relationship on the interannual (decadal- to multidecadal) scale, whereas the NTAB is a passive factor in this relationship. Moreover, a cross-hemispheric relationship between the NTAB/STAB and the HC upper-level meridional winds is revealed.

Multilevel Item Response Modeling: Applications to Large-Scale Assessment of Academic Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zheng, Xiaohui

2009-01-01

The call for standards-based reform and educational accountability has led to increased attention to large-scale assessments. Over the past two decades, large-scale assessments have been providing policymakers and educators with timely information about student learning and achievement to facilitate their decisions regarding schools, teachers and…

Sediment dynamics over multiple time scales in Dyke Marsh Preserve (Potomac River, VA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palinkas, C. M.; Walters, D.

2010-12-01

Tidal freshwater marshes are critical components of fluvial and estuarine ecosystems, yet sediment dynamics within them have not received as much attention as their saltwater counterparts. This study examines sedimentation in Dyke Marsh Preserve, located on the Potomac River (VA), focusing on understanding the spatial variability present over multiple time scales. Bimonthly sediment data were collected using ceramic tiles, and seasonal- and decadal-scale sedimentation was determined via 7Be (half-life 53.3 days) and 210Pb (half-life 22.3 years), respectively. Results were also compared to SET data collected by the National Park Service since 2006. Preliminary data indicate that sites at lower elevations have higher sedimentation rates, likely related to their close proximity to the sediment source. Mass accumulation rates generally decreased with increasing time scale, such that the seasonal rates were greater than the SET-derived accretion rates, which were in turn greater than the decadal-scale rates. However, the bimonthly rates were the lowest observed, probably because the sampling period (May-October 2010) did not include the main depositional period of the year, which would be integrated by the other techniques.

Trends and natural variability of North American spring onset as evaluated by a new gridded dataset of spring indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ault, Toby R.; Schwartz, Mark D.; Zurita-Milla, Raul; Weltzin, Jake F.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to modify the timing of seasonal transitions this century, impacting wildlife migrations, ecosystem function, and agricultural activity. Tracking seasonal transitions in a consistent manner across space and through time requires indices that can be used for monitoring and managing biophysical and ecological systems during the coming decades. Here a new gridded dataset of spring indices is described and used to understand interannual, decadal, and secular trends across the coterminous United States. This dataset is derived from daily interpolated meteorological data, and the results are compared with historical station data to ensure the trends and variations are robust. Regional trends in the first leaf index range from 20.8 to 21.6 days decade21, while first bloom index trends are between20.4 and 21.2 for most regions. However, these trends are modulated by interannual to multidecadal variations, which are substantial throughout the regions considered here. These findings emphasize the important role large-scale climate modes of variability play in modulating spring onset on interannual to multidecadal time scales. Finally, there is some potential for successful subseasonal forecasts of spring onset, as indices from most regions are significantly correlated with antecedent large-scale modes of variability.

Development of National Future Extreme Heat Scenario to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Cresson, William L.; Al-Hamdan, Mohammad Z.; Estes, Maurice G.

2013-01-01

The project's emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of EHEs to facilitate public health studies. We focus on the daily to weekly time scales on which EHEs occur, not on decadal-scale climate changes. There is, however, a very strong connection between air temperature patterns at the two time scales and long-term climatic changes will certainly alter the frequency of EHEs.

Competitive exclusion over broad spatial extents is a slow process: Evidence and implications for species distribution modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yackulic, Charles B.

2016-01-01

There is considerable debate about the role of competition in shaping species distributions over broad spatial extents. This debate has practical implications because predicting changes in species' geographic ranges in response to ongoing environmental change would be simpler if competition could be ignored. While this debate has been the subject of many reviews, recent literature has not addressed the rates of relevant processes. This omission is surprising in that ecologists hypothesized decades ago that regional competitive exclusion is a slow process. The goal of this review is to reassess the debate under the hypothesis that competitive exclusion over broad spatial extents is a slow process.Available evidence, including simulations presented for the first time here, suggests that competitive exclusion over broad spatial extents occurs slowly over temporal extents of many decades to millennia. Ecologists arguing against an important role for competition frequently study modern patterns and/or range dynamics over periods of decades, while much of the evidence for competition shaping geographic ranges at broad spatial extents comes from paleoecological studies over time scales of centuries or longer. If competition is slow, as evidence suggests, the geographic distributions of some, perhaps many species, would continue to change over time scales of decades to millennia, even if environmental conditions did not continue to change. If the distributions of competing species are at equilibrium it is possible to predict species distributions based on observed species–environment relationships. However, disequilibrium is widespread as a result of competition and many other processes. Studies whose goal is accurate predictions over intermediate time scales (decades to centuries) should focus on factors associated with range expansion (colonization) and loss (local extinction), as opposed to current patterns. In general, understanding of modern range dynamics would be enhanced by considering the rates of relevant processes.

The Oceanic Contribution to Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wills, R. C.; Armour, K.; Battisti, D. S.; Hartmann, D. L.

2017-12-01

Atlantic multi-decadal variability (AMV) is typically associated with variability in ocean heat transport (OHT) by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, recent work has cast doubt on this connection by showing that slab-ocean climate models, in which OHT cannot vary, exhibit similar variability. Here, we apply low-frequency component analysis to isolate the variability of Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) that occurs on decadal and longer time scales. In observations and in pre-industrial control simulations of comprehensive climate models, we find that AMV is confined to the extratropics, with the strongest temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. We show that warm subpolar temperatures are associated with a strengthened AMOC, increased poleward OHT, and local heat fluxes from the ocean into the atmosphere. In contrast, the traditional index of AMV based on the basin-averaged SST anomaly shows warm temperatures preceded by heat fluxes from the atmosphere into the ocean, consistent with the atmosphere driving this variability, and shows a weak relationship with AMOC. The autocorrelation time of the basin-averaged SST index is 1 year compared to an autocorrelation time of 5 years for the variability of subpolar temperatures. This shows that multi-decadal variability of Atlantic SSTs is sustained by OHT variability associated with AMOC, while atmosphere-driven SST variability, such as exists in slab-ocean models, contributes primarily on interannual time scales.

Seasonal to multi-decadal trends in apparent optical properties in the Sargasso Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, James G.; Nelson, Norman B.; Siegel, David A.

2017-01-01

Multi-decadal, monthly observations of optical and biogeochemical properties, made as part of the Bermuda Bio-Optics Project (BBOP) at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site in the Sargasso Sea, allow for the examination of temporal trends in vertical light attenuation and their potential controls. Trends in the magnitude of the diffuse attenuation coefficient, Kd(λ), and a proxy for its spectral shape reflect changes in phytoplankton and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) characteristics. The length and methodological consistency of this time series provide an excellent opportunity to extend analyses of seasonal cycles of apparent optical properties to interannual and decadal time scales. Here, we characterize changes in the magnitude and spectral shape proxy of diffuse attenuation coefficient spectra and compare them to available biological and optical data from the BATS time series program. The time series analyses reveal a 1.01%±0.18% annual increase of the magnitude of the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 443 nm over the upper 75 m of the water column while showing no significant change in selected spectral characteristics over the study period. These and other observations indicate that changes in phytoplankton rather than changes in CDOM abundance are the primary driver for the diffuse attenuation trends on multi-year timescales for this region. Our findings are inconsistent with previous decadal-scale global ocean water clarity and global satellite ocean color analyses yet are consistent with recent analyses of the BATS time series and highlight the value of long-term consistent observation at ocean time series sites.

A note on Bjerkne's hypothesis for North Atlantic variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bryan, Kirk; Stouffer, Ron

1991-01-01

On decadal time-scales the historical surface temperature record over land in the Northern Hemisphere is dominated by polar amplified variations. These variations are coherent with SST anomalies concentrated in the Northwest Atlantic, but extending with lesser amplitude into the North Pacific as well. Bierknes suggested that multi-year SST anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic were due to irregular changes in the intensity of the thermohaline circulation. In support of the Bjerknes hypothesis there is evidence that winter overturning in the Labrador Sea was suppressed for a brief period from 1967-1969 by a cap of relative fresh water at the surface. Cause and effect are unclear, but this event was associated with a marked cooling of the entire Northern Hemisphere. The difference in SST averaged over the Northern Hemisphere oceans and SST averaged over the Southern Hemisphere oceans from the equator to 40°S is coherent with Sahel summer rainfall on decadal time scales. Empirical evidence is supported by numerical experiments with the British Meteorological Office atmospheric climate model which simulate augmented monsoonal rainfall in the Sahel region of Africa in response to realistic warm SST anomalies in the Northwest Atlantic. A coupled ocean-atmosphere global model exhibits two equilibrium climate states. One has an active thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic and the other does not. The two climate states provide an extreme example which illustrates the type of large scale air sea interaction Bjerknes visualized as a mechanism for North Atlantic climate variability on decadal time-scales.

Cycles, scaling and crossover phenomenon in length of the day (LOD) time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Telesca, Luciano

2007-06-01

The dynamics of the temporal fluctuations of the length of the day (LOD) time series from January 1, 1962 to November 2, 2006 were investigated. The power spectrum of the whole time series has revealed annual, semi-annual, decadal and daily oscillatory behaviors, correlated with oceanic-atmospheric processes and interactions. The scaling behavior was analyzed by using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), which has revealed two different scaling regimes, separated by a crossover timescale at approximately 23 days. Flicker-noise process can describe the dynamics of the LOD time regime involving intermediate and long timescales, while Brownian dynamics characterizes the LOD time series for small timescales.

Relations of Water Quality to Agricultural Chemical Use and Environmental Setting at Various Scales - Results from Selected Studies of the National Water-Quality Assessment Program

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2008-01-01

In 1991, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began studies of 51 major river basins and aquifers across the United States as part of the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program to provide scientifically sound information for managing the Nation's water resources. The major goals of the NAWQA Program are to assess the status and long-term trends of the Nation's surface- and ground-water quality and to understand the natural and human factors that affect it (Gilliom and others, 1995). In 2001, the NAWQA Program began a second decade of intensive water-quality assessments. The 42 study units for this second decade were selected to represent a wide range of important hydrologic environments and potential contaminant sources. These NAWQA studies continue to address the goals of the first decade of the assessments to determine how water-quality conditions are changing over time. In addition to local- and regional-scale studies, NAWQA began to analyze and synthesize water-quality status and trends at the principal aquifer and major river-basin scales. This fact sheet summarizes results from four NAWQA studies that relate water quality to agricultural chemical use and environmental setting at these various scales: * Comparison of ground-water quality in northern and southern High Plains agricultural settings (principal aquifer scale); * Distribution patterns of pesticides and degradates in rain (local scale); * Occurrence of pesticides in shallow ground water underlying four agricultural areas (local and regional scales); and * Trends in nutrients and sediment over time in the Missouri River and its tributaries (major river-basin scale).

Model under-representation of decadal Pacific trade wind trends and its link to tropical Atlantic bias

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kajtar, Jules B.; Santoso, Agus; McGregor, Shayne; England, Matthew H.; Baillie, Zak

2018-02-01

The strengthening of the Pacific trade winds in recent decades has been unmatched in the observational record stretching back to the early twentieth century. This wind strengthening has been connected with numerous climate-related phenomena, including accelerated sea-level rise in the western Pacific, alterations to Indo-Pacific ocean currents, increased ocean heat uptake, and a slow-down in the rate of global-mean surface warming. Here we show that models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 underestimate the observed range of decadal trends in the Pacific trade winds, despite capturing the range in decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Analysis of observational data suggests that tropical Atlantic SST contributes considerably to the Pacific trade wind trends, whereas the Atlantic feedback in coupled models is muted. Atmosphere-only simulations forced by observed SST are capable of recovering the time-variation and the magnitude of the trade wind trends. Hence, we explore whether it is the biases in the mean or in the anomalous SST patterns that are responsible for the under-representation in fully coupled models. Over interannual time-scales, we find that model biases in the patterns of Atlantic SST anomalies are the strongest source of error in the precipitation and atmospheric circulation response. In contrast, on decadal time-scales, the magnitude of the model biases in Atlantic mean SST are directly linked with the trade wind variability response.

Improving crop condition monitoring at field scale by using optimal Landsat and MODIS images

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Satellite remote sensing data at coarse resolution (kilometers) have been widely used in monitoring crop condition for decades. However, crop condition monitoring at field scale requires high resolution data in both time and space. Although a large number of remote sensing instruments with different...

Hydrographic trends in Prince William Sound, Alaska, 1960-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, Robert W.

2018-01-01

A five-decade time series of temperature and salinity profiles within Prince William Sound (PWS) and the immediately adjacent shelf was assembled from several archives and ongoing field programs, and augmented with archived SST observations. Observations matched with recent cool (2007-2013) and warm (2013-onward) periods in the region, and also showed an overall regional warming trend ( 0.1 to 0.2 °C decade-1) that matched long-term increases in heat transport to the surface ocean. A cooling and freshening trend ( - 0.2 °C decade-1 and 0.02 respectively) occurred in the near surface waters in some portions of PWS, particularly the northwestern margin, which is also the location of most of the ice mass in the region; discharge (estimated from other studies) has increased over time, suggesting that those patterns were due to increased meltwater inputs. Increases in salinity at depth were consistent with enhanced entrainment of deep water by estuarine circulations, and by enhanced deep water renewal caused by reductions in downwelling-favorable winds. As well as local-scale effects, temperature and salinity were positively cross correlated with large scale climate and lunar indexes at long lags (years to months), indicating the longer time scales of atmospheric and transport connections with the Gulf of Alaska. Estimates of mixed layer depths show a shoaling of the seasonal mixed layer over time by several meters, which may have implications for ecosystem productivity in the region.

Spring onset variations and long-term trends from new hemispheric-scale products and remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dye, D. G.; Li, X.; Ault, T.; Zurita-Milla, R.; Schwartz, M. D.

2015-12-01

Spring onset is commonly characterized by plant phenophase changes among a variety of biophysical transitions and has important implications for natural and man-managed ecosystems. Here, we present a new integrated analysis of variability in gridded Northern Hemisphere spring onset metrics. We developed a set of hemispheric temperature-based spring indices spanning 1920-2013. As these were derived solely from meteorological data, they are used as a benchmark for isolating the climate system's role in modulating spring "green up" estimated from the annual cycle of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Spatial patterns of interannual variations, teleconnections, and long-term trends were also analyzed in all metrics. At mid-to-high latitudes, all indices exhibit larger variability at interannual to decadal time scales than at spatial scales of a few kilometers. Trends of spring onset vary across space and time. However, compared to long-term trend, interannual to decadal variability generally accounts for a larger portion of the total variance in spring onset timing. Therefore, spring onset trends identified from short existing records may be aliased by decadal climate variations due to their limited temporal depth, even when these records span the entire satellite era. Based on our findings, we also demonstrated that our indices have skill in representing ecosystem-level spring phenology and may have important implications in understanding relationships between phenology, atmosphere dynamics and climate variability.

Climate Benchmark Missions: CLARREO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A.; Young, David F.

2010-01-01

CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) is one of the four Tier 1 missions recommended by the recent NRC decadal survey report on Earth Science and Applications from Space (NRC, 2007). The CLARREO mission addresses the need to rigorously observe climate change on decade time scales and to use decadal change observations as the most critical method to determine the accuracy of climate change projections such as those used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). A rigorously known accuracy of both decadal change observations as well as climate projections is critical in order to enable sound policy decisions. The CLARREO mission accomplishes this critical objective through highly accurate and SI traceable decadal change observations sensitive to many of the key uncertainties in climate radiative forcings, responses, and feedbacks that in turn drive uncertainty in current climate model projections. The same uncertainties also lead to uncertainty in attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing. The CLARREO breakthrough in decadal climate change observations is to achieve the required levels of accuracy and traceability to SI standards for a set of observations sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables. These accuracy levels are determined both by the projected decadal changes as well as by the background natural variability that such signals must be detected against. The accuracy for decadal change traceability to SI standards includes uncertainties of calibration, sampling, and analysis methods. Unlike most other missions, all of the CLARREO requirements are judged not by instantaneous accuracy, but instead by accuracy in large time/space scale average decadal changes. Given the focus on decadal climate change, the NRC Decadal Survey concluded that the single most critical issue for decadal change observations was their lack of accuracy and low confidence in observing the small but critical climate change signals. CLARREO is the recommended attack on this challenge, and builds on the last decade of climate observation advances in the Earth Observing System as well as metrological advances at NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) and other standards laboratories.

Variability and prediction of freshwater and nitrate fluxes for the Louisiana-Texas shelf: Mississippi and Atchafalaya River source functions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bratkovich, A.; Dinnel, S.P.; Goolsby, D.A.

1994-01-01

Time histories of riverine water discharge, nitrate concentration, and nitrate, flux have been analyzed for the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers. Results indicate that water discharge variability is dominated by the annual cycle and shorter-time-scale episodic events presumably associated with snowmelt runoff and spring or summer rains. Interannual variability in water discharge is relatively small compared to the above. In contrast, nitrate concentration exhibits strongest variability at decadal time scales. The interannual variability is not monotonic but more complicated in structure. Weak covariability between water discharge and nitrate concentration leads to a relatively “noisy” nitrate flux signal. Nitrate flux variations exhibit a low-amplitude, long-term modulation of a dominant annual cycle. Predictor-hindcastor analyses indicate that skilled forecasts of nitrate concentration and nitrate flux fields are feasible. Water discharge was the most reliably hindcast (on seasonal to interannual time scales) due to the fundamental strength of the annual hydrologic cycle. However, the forecasting effort for this variable was less successful than the hindcasting effort, mostly due to a phase shift in the annual cycle during our relatively short test period (18 mo). Nitrate concentration was more skillfully predicted (seasonal to interannual time scales) due to the relative dominance of the decadal-scale portion of the signal. Nitrate flux was also skillfully forecast even though historical analyses seemed to indicate that it should be more difficult to predict than either water discharge or nitrate concentration.

Time Scales in the JPL and CfA Ephemerides

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Standish, E. M.

1998-01-01

Over the past decades, the IAU has repeatedly attempted to correct its definition of the basic fundamental argument used in the emphemerides. Finally, they have defined a time system which is physically possible, according to the accepted standard theory of gravitation.

Hydrologic impacts of land cover variability and change at seasonal to decadal time scales over North America, 1992-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bohn, T. J.; Vivoni, E. R.

2017-12-01

Land cover variability and change have been shown to influence the terrestrial hydrologic cycle by altering the partitioning of moisture and energy fluxes. However, the magnitude and directionality of the relationship between land cover and surface hydrology has been shown to vary substantially across regions. Here, we provide an assessment of the impacts of land cover change on hydrologic processes at seasonal (vegetation phenology) to decadal scales (land cover conversion) in the United States and Mexico. To this end, we combine time series of remotely-sensed land surface characteristics with land cover maps for different decades as input to the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model. Land surface characteristics (leaf area index, surface albedo, and canopy fraction derived from normalized difference vegetation index) were obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) at 8-day intervals over the period 2000-2016. Land cover maps representing conditions in 1992, 2001, and 2011 were derived by homogenizing the National Land Cover Database over the US and the INEGI Series I through V maps over Mexico. An additional map covering all of North America was derived from the most frequent land cover class observed in each pixel of the MODIS MOD12Q1 product during 2001-2013. Land surface characteristics were summarized over land cover fractions at 1/16 degree (6 km) resolution. For each land cover map, hydrologic simulations were conducted that covered the period 1980-2013, using the best-available, hourly meteorological forcings at a similar spatial resolution. Based on these simulations, we present a comparison of the contributions of land cover change and climate variability at seasonal to decadal scales on the hydrologic and energy budgets, identifying the dominant components through time and space. This work also offers a valuable dataset on land cover variability and its hydrologic response for continental-scale assessments and modeling.

Series Overview. Sustaining School Turnaround at Scale. Brief 1

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Education Resource Strategies, 2012

2012-01-01

Members of the non-profit organization Education Resource Strategies (ERS) have worked for over a decade with leaders of urban school systems to help them organize talent, time and technology to support great schools at scale. One year into the Federal program they are noticing significant differences in district turnaround approaches, engagement…

Coordinated Approaches to Quantify Long-Term Ecosystem dynamics in Response to Global Change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change and its impact on ecosystems are usually assessed at decadal and century time scales. Ecological responses to climate change at those scales are strongly regulated by long-term processes, such as changes in species composition, carbon dynamics in soil and by big trees, and nutrient r...

On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdon-Kidd, D. C.; Kiem, A. S.

2009-04-01

In this paper regional (synoptic) and large-scale climate drivers of rainfall are investigated for Victoria, Australia. A non-linear classification methodology known as self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify 20 key regional synoptic patterns, which are shown to capture a range of significant synoptic features known to influence the climate of the region. Rainfall distributions are assigned to each of the 20 patterns for nine rainfall stations located across Victoria, resulting in a clear distinction between wet and dry synoptic types at each station. The influence of large-scale climate modes on the frequency and timing of the regional synoptic patterns is also investigated. This analysis revealed that phase changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and/or the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) are associated with a shift in the relative frequency of wet and dry synoptic types on an annual to inter-annual timescale. In addition, the relative frequency of synoptic types is shown to vary on a multi-decadal timescale, associated with changes in the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Importantly, these results highlight the potential to utilise the link between the regional synoptic patterns derived in this study and large-scale climate modes to improve rainfall forecasting for Victoria, both in the short- (i.e. seasonal) and long-term (i.e. decadal/multi-decadal scale). In addition, the regional and large-scale climate drivers identified in this study provide a benchmark by which the performance of Global Climate Models (GCMs) may be assessed.

Using First Differences to Reduce Inhomogeneity in Radiosonde Temperature Datasets.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Free, Melissa; Angell, James K.; Durre, Imke; Lanzante, John; Peterson, Thomas C.; Seidel, Dian J.

2004-11-01

The utility of a “first difference” method for producing temporally homogeneous large-scale mean time series is assessed. Starting with monthly averages, the method involves dropping data around the time of suspected discontinuities and then calculating differences in temperature from one year to the next, resulting in a time series of year-to-year differences for each month at each station. These first difference time series are then combined to form large-scale means, and mean temperature time series are constructed from the first difference series. When applied to radiosonde temperature data, the method introduces random errors that decrease with the number of station time series used to create the large-scale time series and increase with the number of temporal gaps in the station time series. Root-mean-square errors for annual means of datasets produced with this method using over 500 stations are estimated at no more than 0.03 K, with errors in trends less than 0.02 K decade-1 for 1960 97 at 500 mb. For a 50-station dataset, errors in trends in annual global means introduced by the first differencing procedure may be as large as 0.06 K decade-1 (for six breaks per series), which is greater than the standard error of the trend. Although the first difference method offers significant resource and labor advantages over methods that attempt to adjust the data, it introduces an error in large-scale mean time series that may be unacceptable in some cases.

Precipitation changes in the western tropical Pacific over the past millennium

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richey, Julie; Sachs, Julian P.

2016-01-01

Palau is linked to both meridional movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and changes in the Pacific Walker Circula- tion (PWC) associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Thus, Palau’s hydroclimate should be sensitive to mean shifts in the ITCZ and PWC on decadal to centennial time scales. Using compound- specific hydrogen isotope ratios (δ2H) of dinosterol in lake sediments, we generated a decadal-resolution proxy record of hydroclimatic variability in Palau spanning the past 800 yr. Results indicate a dry- ing trend during the Little Ice Age in Palau, consistent with a south- ward displacement of the ITCZ. In addition to the secular drying trend, there are persistent large (~20‰) multi-decadal to centennial oscillations in the δ2H record, the most recent of which indicates an abrupt shift to drier conditions in the mid-1970s that coincides with a decadal-scale negative shift in the Southern Oscillation Index.

Modes and emergent time scales of embayed beach dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratliff, Katherine M.; Murray, A. Brad

2014-10-01

In this study, we use a simple numerical model (the Coastline Evolution Model) to explore alongshore transport-driven shoreline dynamics within generalized embayed beaches (neglecting cross-shore effects). Using principal component analysis (PCA), we identify two primary orthogonal modes of shoreline behavior that describe shoreline variation about its unchanging mean position: the rotation mode, which has been previously identified and describes changes in the mean shoreline orientation, and a newly identified breathing mode, which represents changes in shoreline curvature. Wavelet analysis of the PCA mode time series reveals characteristic time scales of these modes (typically years to decades) that emerge within even a statistically constant white-noise wave climate (without changes in external forcing), suggesting that these time scales can arise from internal system dynamics. The time scales of both modes increase linearly with shoreface depth, suggesting that the embayed beach sediment transport dynamics exhibit a diffusive scaling.

Quantitative Assessment of the Integrated Response in Global Heat and Moisture Budgets to Changing Solar Irradiance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, Warren B.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael; Sharber, James (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Earlier, we found time sequences of basin- and global-average upper ocean temperature (that is, diabatic heat storage above the main pycnocline) for 40 years from 1955-1994 and of sea surface temperature for 95 years from 1900-1994 associated with changes in the Sun's radiative forcing on decadal and interdecadal timescales, lagging by 10 deg.- 30 deg. of phase and confined to the upper 60-120 m. Yet, the observed changes in upper ocean temperature (approx. 0.1 K) were approximately twice those expected from the Stefan-Boltzmann black-body radiation law for the Earth's surface, with phase lags (0 deg. to 30 deg. of phase) much shorter than the 90 deg. phase shift expected as well. Moreover, White et al. (1997, 1998) found the Earth's global decadal mode in covarying SST and SLP anomalies phase locked to the decadal signal in the Sun's irradiance. Yet, Allan (2000) found this decadal signal also characterized by patterns similar to those observed on biennial and interannual time scales; that is, the Troposphere Biennial Oscillation (TBO) and the El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This suggested that small changes in the Sun's total irradiance could excite this global decadal mode in the Earth's ocean-atmosphere-terrestrial system similar to those excited internally on biennial and interannual period scales. This is a significant finding, proving that energy budget models (that is, models based on globally-averaged radiation balances) yield unrealistic responses. Thus, the true response must include positive and negative feedbacks in the Earth's ocean-atmosphere-terrestrial system as its internal mode (that is, the natural mode of the system) respond in damped resonance to quasi-periodic decadal changes in the Sun's irradiance. Moreover, these responses are not much different from those occurring internally on biennial and interannual period scales.

Understanding the Patterns and Drivers of Air Pollution on Multiple Time Scales: The Case of Northern China.

PubMed

Liu, Yupeng; Wu, Jianguo; Yu, Deyong; Hao, Ruifang

2018-06-01

China's rapid economic growth during the past three decades has resulted in a number of environmental problems, including the deterioration of air quality. It is necessary to better understand how the spatial pattern of air pollutants varies with time scales and what drive these changes. To address these questions, this study focused on one of the most heavily air-polluted areas in North China. We first quantified the spatial pattern of air pollution, and then systematically examined the relationships of air pollution to several socioeconomic and climatic factors using the constraint line method, correlation analysis, and stepwise regression on decadal, annual, and seasonal scales. Our results indicate that PM 2.5 was the dominant air pollutant in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, while PM 2.5 and PM 10 were both important pollutants in the Agro-pastoral Transitional Zone (APTZ) region. Our statistical analyses suggest that energy consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) in the industry were the most important factors for air pollution on the decadal scale, but the impacts of climatic factors could also be significant. On the annual and seasonal scales, high wind speed, low relative humidity, and long sunshine duration constrained PM 2.5 accumulation; low wind speed and high relative humidity constrained PM 10 accumulation; and short sunshine duration and high wind speed constrained O 3 accumulation. Our study showed that analyses on multiple temporal scales are not only necessary to determine key drivers of air pollution, but also insightful for understanding the spatial patterns of air pollution, which was important for urban planning and air pollution control.

Understanding the Patterns and Drivers of Air Pollution on Multiple Time Scales: The Case of Northern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yupeng; Wu, Jianguo; Yu, Deyong; Hao, Ruifang

2018-06-01

China's rapid economic growth during the past three decades has resulted in a number of environmental problems, including the deterioration of air quality. It is necessary to better understand how the spatial pattern of air pollutants varies with time scales and what drive these changes. To address these questions, this study focused on one of the most heavily air-polluted areas in North China. We first quantified the spatial pattern of air pollution, and then systematically examined the relationships of air pollution to several socioeconomic and climatic factors using the constraint line method, correlation analysis, and stepwise regression on decadal, annual, and seasonal scales. Our results indicate that PM2.5 was the dominant air pollutant in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, while PM2.5 and PM10 were both important pollutants in the Agro-pastoral Transitional Zone (APTZ) region. Our statistical analyses suggest that energy consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) in the industry were the most important factors for air pollution on the decadal scale, but the impacts of climatic factors could also be significant. On the annual and seasonal scales, high wind speed, low relative humidity, and long sunshine duration constrained PM2.5 accumulation; low wind speed and high relative humidity constrained PM10 accumulation; and short sunshine duration and high wind speed constrained O3 accumulation. Our study showed that analyses on multiple temporal scales are not only necessary to determine key drivers of air pollution, but also insightful for understanding the spatial patterns of air pollution, which was important for urban planning and air pollution control.

Optimal satellite sampling to resolve global-scale dynamics in the I-T system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowland, D. E.; Zesta, E.; Connor, H. K.; Pfaff, R. F., Jr.

2016-12-01

The recent Decadal Survey highlighted the need for multipoint measurements of ion-neutral coupling processes to study the pathways by which solar wind energy drives dynamics in the I-T system. The emphasis in the Decadal Survey is on global-scale dynamics and processes, and in particular, mission concepts making use of multiple identical spacecraft in low earth orbit were considered for the GDC and DYNAMIC missions. This presentation will provide quantitative assessments of the optimal spacecraft sampling needed to significantly advance our knowledge of I-T dynamics on the global scale.We will examine storm time and quiet time conditions as simulated by global circulation models, and determine how well various candidate satellite constellations and satellite schemes can quantify the plasma and neutral convection patterns and global-scale distributions of plasma density, neutral density, and composition, and their response to changes in the IMF. While the global circulation models are data-starved, and do not contain all the physics that we might expect to observe with a global-scale constellation mission, they are nonetheless an excellent "starting point" for discussions of the implementation of such a mission. The result will be of great utility for the design of future missions, such as GDC, to study the global-scale dynamics of the I-T system.

A new look at ocean ventilation time scales and their uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fine, Rana A.; Peacock, Synte; Maltrud, Mathew E.; Bryan, Frank O.

2017-05-01

A suite of eddy-resolving ocean transient tracer model simulations are first compared to observations. Observational and model pCFC-11 ages agree quite well, with the eddy-resolving model adding detail. The CFC ages show that the thermocline is a barrier to interior ocean exchange with the atmosphere on time scales of 45 years, the measureable CFC transient, although there are exceptions. Next, model simulations are used to quantify effects on tracer ages of the spatial dependence of internal ocean tracer variability due to stirring from eddies and biases from nonstationarity of the atmospheric transient when there is mixing. These add to tracer age uncertainties and biases, which are large in frontal boundary regions, and small in subtropical gyre interiors. These uncertainties and biases are used to reinterpret observed temporal trends in tracer-derived ventilation time scales taken from observations more than a decade apart, and to assess whether interpretations of changes in tracer ages being due to changes in ocean ventilation hold water. For the southern hemisphere subtropical gyres, we infer that the rate of ocean ventilation 26-27.2 σθ increased between the mid-1990s and the decade of the 2000s. However, between the mid-1990s and the decade of the 2010s, there is no significant trend—perhaps except for South Atlantic. Observed age/AOU/ventilation changes are linked to a combination of natural cycles and climate change, and there is regional variability. Thus, for the future it is not clear how strong or steady in space and time ocean ventilation changes will be.

A new look at ocean ventilation time scales and their uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fine, Rana A.; Peacock, Synte; Maltrud, Mathew E.

A suite of eddy-resolving ocean transient tracer model simulations are first compared to observations. Observational and model pCFC-11 ages agree quite well, with the eddy-resolving model adding detail. The CFC ages show that the thermocline is a barrier to interior ocean exchange with the atmosphere on time scales of 45 years, the measureable CFC transient, although there are exceptions. Next, model simulations are used to quantify effects on tracer ages of the spatial dependence of internal ocean tracer variability due to stirring from eddies and biases from nonstationarity of the atmospheric transient when there is mixing. These add to tracermore » age uncertainties and biases, which are large in frontal boundary regions, and small in subtropical gyre interiors. These uncertainties and biases are used to reinterpret observed temporal trends in tracer-derived ventilation time scales taken from observations more than a decade apart, and to assess whether interpretations of changes in tracer ages being due to changes in ocean ventilation hold water. For the southern hemisphere subtropical gyres, we infer that the rate of ocean ventilation 26–27.2 σ θ increased between the mid-1990s and the decade of the 2000s. However, between the mid-1990s and the decade of the 2010s, there is no significant trend—perhaps except for South Atlantic. Observed age/AOU/ventilation changes are linked to a combination of natural cycles and climate change, and there is regional variability. Thus, for the future it is not clear how strong or steady in space and time ocean ventilation changes will be.« less

A new look at ocean ventilation time scales and their uncertainties

DOE PAGES

Fine, Rana A.; Peacock, Synte; Maltrud, Mathew E.; ...

2017-03-17

A suite of eddy-resolving ocean transient tracer model simulations are first compared to observations. Observational and model pCFC-11 ages agree quite well, with the eddy-resolving model adding detail. The CFC ages show that the thermocline is a barrier to interior ocean exchange with the atmosphere on time scales of 45 years, the measureable CFC transient, although there are exceptions. Next, model simulations are used to quantify effects on tracer ages of the spatial dependence of internal ocean tracer variability due to stirring from eddies and biases from nonstationarity of the atmospheric transient when there is mixing. These add to tracermore » age uncertainties and biases, which are large in frontal boundary regions, and small in subtropical gyre interiors. These uncertainties and biases are used to reinterpret observed temporal trends in tracer-derived ventilation time scales taken from observations more than a decade apart, and to assess whether interpretations of changes in tracer ages being due to changes in ocean ventilation hold water. For the southern hemisphere subtropical gyres, we infer that the rate of ocean ventilation 26–27.2 σ θ increased between the mid-1990s and the decade of the 2000s. However, between the mid-1990s and the decade of the 2010s, there is no significant trend—perhaps except for South Atlantic. Observed age/AOU/ventilation changes are linked to a combination of natural cycles and climate change, and there is regional variability. Thus, for the future it is not clear how strong or steady in space and time ocean ventilation changes will be.« less

Terrestrial Waters and Sea Level Variations on Interannual Time Scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Llovel, W.; Becker, M.; Cazenave, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; Alkama, R.; Decharme, B.; Douville, H.; Ablain, M.; Beckley, B.

2011-01-01

On decadal to multi-decadal time scales, thermal expansion of sea waters and land ice loss are the main contributors to sea level variations. However, modification of the terrestrial water cycle due to climate variability and direct anthropogenic forcing may also affect sea level. For the past decades, variations in land water storage and corresponding effects on sea level cannot be directly estimated from observations because these are almost non-existent at global continental scale. However, global hydrological models developed for atmospheric and climatic studies can be used for estimating total water storage. For the recent years (since mid-2002), terrestrial water storage change can be directly estimated from observations of the GRACE space gravimetry mission. In this study, we analyse the interannual variability of total land water storage, and investigate its contribution to mean sea level variability at interannual time scale. We consider three different periods that, each, depend on data availability: (1) GRACE era (2003-2009), (2) 1993-2003 and (3) 1955-1995. For the GRACE era (period 1), change in land water storage is estimated using different GRACE products over the 33 largest river basins worldwide. For periods 2 and 3, we use outputs from the ISBA-TRIP (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere-Total Runoff Integrating Pathways) global hydrological model. For each time span, we compare change in land water storage (expressed in sea level equivalent) to observed mean sea level, either from satellite altimetry (periods 1 and 2) or tide gauge records (period 3). For each data set and each time span, a trend has been removed as we focus on the interannual variability. We show that whatever the period considered, interannual variability of the mean sea level is essentially explained by interannual fluctuations in land water storage, with the largest contributions arising from tropical river basins.

Partnering for Improvement: "Communities of Practice and Their Role in Scale Up." Conference Paper

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cannata, Marisa; Cohen-Vogel, Lora; Sorum, Michael

2015-01-01

The past several decades have seen a substantial amount of time, resources, and expertise focused on producing sustainable improvement in schools at scale. Research on these efforts have highlighted how complex this challenge is, as it needs to attend to building teacher support and participation, aligning with the organizational context, and…

A Decade-Long European-Scale Convection-Resolving Climate Simulation on GPUs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leutwyler, D.; Fuhrer, O.; Ban, N.; Lapillonne, X.; Lüthi, D.; Schar, C.

2016-12-01

Convection-resolving models have proven to be very useful tools in numerical weather prediction and in climate research. However, due to their extremely demanding computational requirements, they have so far been limited to short simulations and/or small computational domains. Innovations in the supercomputing domain have led to new supercomputer designs that involve conventional multi-core CPUs and accelerators such as graphics processing units (GPUs). One of the first atmospheric models that has been fully ported to GPUs is the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling weather and climate model COSMO. This new version allows us to expand the size of the simulation domain to areas spanning continents and the time period up to one decade. We present results from a decade-long, convection-resolving climate simulation over Europe using the GPU-enabled COSMO version on a computational domain with 1536x1536x60 gridpoints. The simulation is driven by the ERA-interim reanalysis. The results illustrate how the approach allows for the representation of interactions between synoptic-scale and meso-scale atmospheric circulations at scales ranging from 1000 to 10 km. We discuss some of the advantages and prospects from using GPUs, and focus on the performance of the convection-resolving modeling approach on the European scale. Specifically we investigate the organization of convective clouds and on validate hourly rainfall distributions with various high-resolution data sets.

Anthropogenic hydrological cycle disturbance at a regional scale: State-wide evapotranspiration trends (1979-2015) across Nebraska, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szilagyi, Jozsef

2018-02-01

Trends in monthly evapotranspiration (ET) rates across Nebraska, the most intensely irrigated state within the US, were calculated by the calibration-free version of the nonlinear complementary relationship of evaporation over the 1979-2015 period utilizing North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) net radiation, 10-m wind velocity, as well as Parameter Regression Independent Slope Model (PRISM) air- and dew-point temperature data. State-averaged modeled ET rates rose by 5.5 mm decade-1 due to the presence of wide-spread large-scale irrigation projects in accordance with a 2.4 mm decade-1 increase in PRISM precipitation (P) and a simultaneous -2.8 mm decade-1 drop in United States Geological Survey's state-averaged annual streamflow rates, raising the state-wide ET to P ratio from 0.89 to 0.91 over the modeled time-period. ET rates over irrigated crops increased by 7 mm decade-1 despite a -4.4 mm decade-1 drop in precipitation rates. A similar increase in ET rates (6 mm decade-1) required 8.1 mm decade-1 increase in precipitation rates across the non-irrigated Sand Hills of Nebraska. Published NARR ET rates are unable to pick up this unusual regional trend. Since an increase in precipitation rates should normally decrease the ET ratio, as predicted by the Budyko curve, this study yields evidence on how dramatically sustained large-scale irrigation can alter the regional hydrologic cycle not only through a) trivially depleting streamflow rates and/or lowering groundwater table levels; b) suppressing precipitation locally (while enhancing it a long distance downwind), but also; c) reversing the trajectory of the regional ET ratio under generally increasing trends of precipitation.

Fast X-Ray Timing: A Window into the Strong-Field Regime

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strohmayer, Tod

2010-01-01

The dynamical time-scales in the vicinity of neutron star surfaces and black hole horizons are in the millisecond range. Over the past decade, timing signatures on such scales, either quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) and/or coherent pulsations, have been discovered and studied from both neutron stars and black holes with NASA's Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer, Although theoretical interpretations are still hotly debated, these timing properties almost certainly reflect the dynamics of matter in regions dominated by relativistic gravity. I will survey our current understanding of these timing properties, with a focus on how they might he used as probes of fundamental physics.

Changing climate in the Gulf of California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lluch-Cota, Salvador E.; Parés-Sierra, Alejandro; Magaña-Rueda, Víctor O.; Arreguín-Sánchez, Francisco; Bazzino, Gastón; Herrera-Cervantes, Hugo; Lluch-Belda, Daniel

2010-10-01

We conducted a four year interdisciplinary collaborative project focused in the Gulf of California, the most important fishing region for Mexico. We reviewed published reports, collected and analyzed physical, chemical and ecological data sets, and developed models for the physical (atmosphere and ocean) and ecological components of this large marine ecosystem, to examine prevalent scientific questions regarding climate variability and change in the region, covering three time scales (ENSO, decadal-to-interdecadal, and long-term trend). We were able to describe how the Gulf of California influences the northward propagation of coastal trapped Kelvin waves associated with El Niño (ENSO) events, and how this signal, together with changes in the atmospheric forcing, results in a ENSO signature inside the Gulf. For the decadal-to-multidecadal scales, we found coherent trends among series, and with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The long-term temperature signal for the Gulf of California shows a warming that occurred in the mid 20th century, approximately a decade before that in the California Current. This signal is coherent with fluctuations in the industrial fisheries catch records (sardine and shrimps). For the recent decades we found no significant sustained long-term trend in any of the time series of physical and ecological variables that we considered. Instead, variability seems to be fully dominated by the interaction of PDO and ENSO. We stress the urgent need for more modeling efforts and the establishment of interdisciplinary (physical and biological) observation platforms for the marine environment in the Gulf of California.

Collaborative Research: Separating Forced and Unforced Decadal Predictability in Models and Observations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tippett, Michael K.

2014-04-09

This report is a progress report of the accomplishments of the research grant “Collaborative Research: Separating Forced and Unforced Decadal Predictability in Models and Observa- tions” during the period 1 May 2011- 31 August 2013. This project is a collaborative one between Columbia University and George Mason University. George Mason University will submit a final technical report at the conclusion of their no-cost extension. The purpose of the proposed research is to identify unforced predictable components on decadal time scales, distinguish these components from forced predictable components, and to assess the reliability of model predictions of these components. Components ofmore » unforced decadal predictability will be isolated by maximizing the Average Predictability Time (APT) in long, multimodel control runs from state-of-the-art climate models. Components with decadal predictability have large APT, so maximizing APT ensures that components with decadal predictability will be detected. Optimal fingerprinting techniques, as used in detection and attribution analysis, will be used to separate variations due to natural and anthropogenic forcing from those due to unforced decadal predictability. This methodology will be applied to the decadal hindcasts generated by the CMIP5 project to assess the reliability of model projections. The question of whether anthropogenic forcing changes decadal predictability, or gives rise to new forms of decadal predictability, also will be investigated.« less

Multi-time scale Climate Informed Stochastic Hybrid Simulation-Optimization Model (McISH model) for Multi-Purpose Reservoir System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, M.; Lall, U.

2013-12-01

In order to mitigate the impacts of climate change, proactive management strategies to operate reservoirs and dams are needed. A multi-time scale climate informed stochastic model is developed to optimize the operations for a multi-purpose single reservoir by simulating decadal, interannual, seasonal and sub-seasonal variability. We apply the model to a setting motivated by the largest multi-purpose dam in N. India, the Bhakhra reservoir on the Sutlej River, a tributary of the Indus. This leads to a focus on timing and amplitude of the flows for the monsoon and snowmelt periods. The flow simulations are constrained by multiple sources of historical data and GCM future projections, that are being developed through a NSF funded project titled 'Decadal Prediction and Stochastic Simulation of Hydroclimate Over Monsoon Asia'. The model presented is a multilevel, nonlinear programming model that aims to optimize the reservoir operating policy on a decadal horizon and the operation strategy on an updated annual basis. The model is hierarchical, in terms of having a structure that two optimization models designated for different time scales are nested as a matryoshka doll. The two optimization models have similar mathematical formulations with some modifications to meet the constraints within that time frame. The first level of the model is designated to provide optimization solution for policy makers to determine contracted annual releases to different uses with a prescribed reliability; the second level is a within-the-period (e.g., year) operation optimization scheme that allocates the contracted annual releases on a subperiod (e.g. monthly) basis, with additional benefit for extra release and penalty for failure. The model maximizes the net benefit of irrigation, hydropower generation and flood control in each of the periods. The model design thus facilitates the consistent application of weather and climate forecasts to improve operations of reservoir systems. The decadal flow simulations are re-initialized every year with updated climate projections to improve the reliability of the operation rules for the next year, within which the seasonal operation strategies are nested. The multi-level structure can be repeated for monthly operation with weekly subperiods to take advantage of evolving weather forecasts and seasonal climate forecasts. As a result of the hierarchical structure, sub-seasonal even weather time scale updates and adjustment can be achieved. Given an ensemble of these scenarios, the McISH reservoir simulation-optimization model is able to derive the desired reservoir storage levels, including minimum and maximum, as a function of calendar date, and the associated release patterns. The multi-time scale approach allows adaptive management of water supplies acknowledging the changing risks, meeting both the objectives over the decade in expected value and controlling the near term and planning period risk through probabilistic reliability constraints. For the applications presented, the target season is the monsoon season from June to September. The model also includes a monthly flood volume forecast model, based on a Copula density fit to the monthly flow and the flood volume flow. This is used to guide dynamic allocation of the flood control volume given the forecasts.

Effects of lateral boundary condition resolution and update frequency on regional climate model predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pankatz, Klaus; Kerkweg, Astrid

2015-04-01

The work presented is part of the joint project "DecReg" ("Regional decadal predictability") which is in turn part of the project "MiKlip" ("Decadal predictions"), an effort funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research to improve decadal predictions on a global and regional scale. In MiKlip, one big question is if regional climate modeling shows "added value", i.e. to evaluate, if regional climate models (RCM) produce better results than the driving models. However, the scope of this study is to look more closely at the setup specific details of regional climate modeling. As regional models only simulate a small domain, they have to inherit information about the state of the atmosphere at their lateral boundaries from external data sets. There are many unresolved questions concerning the setup of lateral boundary conditions (LBC). External data sets come from global models or from global reanalysis data-sets. A temporal resolution of six hours is common for this kind of data. This is mainly due to the fact, that storage space is a limiting factor, especially for climate simulations. However, theoretically, the coupling frequency could be as high as the time step of the driving model. Meanwhile, it is unclear if a more frequent update of the LBCs has a significant effect on the climate in the domain of the RCM. The first study examines how the RCM reacts to a higher update frequency. The study is based on a 30 year time slice experiment for three update frequencies of the LBC, namely six hours, one hour and six minutes. The evaluation of means, standard deviations and statistics of the climate in the regional domain shows only small deviations, some statistically significant though, of 2m temperature, sea level pressure and precipitation. The second part of the first study assesses parameters linked to cyclone activity, which is affected by the LBC update frequency. Differences in track density and strength are found when comparing the simulations. Theoretically, regional down-scaling should act like a magnifying glass. It should reveal details on small scales which a global model cannot resolve, but it should not affect the large scale flow. As the development of the small scale features takes some time, it is important that the air stays long enough within the regional domain. The spin-up time of the small scale features is, of course, dependent on the resolution of the LBC and the resolution of the RCM. The second study examines the quality of decadal hind-casts over Europe of the decade 2001-2010 when the horizontal resolution of the driving model, namely 2.8°, 1.8°, 1.4°, 1.1°, from which the LBC are calculated, is altered. The study shows, that a smaller resolution gap between LBC resolution and RCM resolution might be beneficial.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elber, Ron

Atomically detailed computer simulations of complex molecular events attracted the imagination of many researchers in the field as providing comprehensive information on chemical, biological, and physical processes. However, one of the greatest limitations of these simulations is of time scales. The physical time scales accessible to straightforward simulations are too short to address many interesting and important molecular events. In the last decade significant advances were made in different directions (theory, software, and hardware) that significantly expand the capabilities and accuracies of these techniques. This perspective describes and critically examines some of these advances.

Demographic disequilibrium caused by canopy gap expansion and recruitment failure triggers forest cover loss

Treesearch

Martin Barrette; Louis Bélanger; Louis De Grandpré; Alejandro A. Royo

2017-01-01

In the absence of large-scale stand replacing disturbances, boreal forests can remain in the old-growth stage over time because of a dynamic equilibrium between small-scale mortality and regeneration processes. Although this gap paradigm has been a cornerstone of forest dynamics theory and practice for decades, evidence suggests that it could be disrupted, threatening...

Time and length scales within a fire and implications for numerical simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

TIESZEN,SHELDON R.

2000-02-02

A partial non-dimensionalization of the Navier-Stokes equations is used to obtain order of magnitude estimates of the rate-controlling transport processes in the reacting portion of a fire plume as a function of length scale. Over continuum length scales, buoyant times scales vary as the square root of the length scale; advection time scales vary as the length scale, and diffusion time scales vary as the square of the length scale. Due to the variation with length scale, each process is dominant over a given range. The relationship of buoyancy and baroclinc vorticity generation is highlighted. For numerical simulation, first principlesmore » solution for fire problems is not possible with foreseeable computational hardware in the near future. Filtered transport equations with subgrid modeling will be required as two to three decades of length scale are captured by solution of discretized conservation equations. By whatever filtering process one employs, one must have humble expectations for the accuracy obtainable by numerical simulation for practical fire problems that contain important multi-physics/multi-length-scale coupling with up to 10 orders of magnitude in length scale.« less

Long-range persistence in the global mean surface temperature and the global warming "time bomb"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rypdal, M.; Rypdal, K.

2012-04-01

Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) and Maximum Likelihood Estimations (MLE) based on instrumental data over the last 160 years indicate that there is Long-Range Persistence (LRP) in Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) on time scales of months to decades. The persistence is much higher in sea surface temperature than in land temperatures. Power spectral analysis of multi-model, multi-ensemble runs of global climate models indicate further that this persistence may extend to centennial and maybe even millennial time-scales. We also support these conclusions by wavelet variogram analysis, DFA, and MLE of Northern hemisphere mean surface temperature reconstructions over the last two millennia. These analyses indicate that the GMST is a strongly persistent noise with Hurst exponent H>0.9 on time scales from decades up to at least 500 years. We show that such LRP can be very important for long-term climate prediction and for the establishment of a "time bomb" in the climate system due to a growing energy imbalance caused by the slow relaxation to radiative equilibrium under rising anthropogenic forcing. We do this by the construction of a multi-parameter dynamic-stochastic model for the GMST response to deterministic and stochastic forcing, where LRP is represented by a power-law response function. Reconstructed data for total forcing and GMST over the last millennium are used with this model to estimate trend coefficients and Hurst exponent for the GMST on multi-century time scale by means of MLE. Ensembles of solutions generated from the stochastic model also allow us to estimate confidence intervals for these estimates.

Time scale bias in erosion rates of glaciated landscapes

PubMed Central

Ganti, Vamsi; von Hagke, Christoph; Scherler, Dirk; Lamb, Michael P.; Fischer, Woodward W.; Avouac, Jean-Philippe

2016-01-01

Deciphering erosion rates over geologic time is fundamental for understanding the interplay between climate, tectonic, and erosional processes. Existing techniques integrate erosion over different time scales, and direct comparison of such rates is routinely done in earth science. On the basis of a global compilation, we show that erosion rate estimates in glaciated landscapes may be affected by a systematic averaging bias that produces higher estimated erosion rates toward the present, which do not reflect straightforward changes in erosion rates through time. This trend can result from a heavy-tailed distribution of erosional hiatuses (that is, time periods where no or relatively slow erosion occurs). We argue that such a distribution can result from the intermittency of erosional processes in glaciated landscapes that are tightly coupled to climate variability from decadal to millennial time scales. In contrast, we find no evidence for a time scale bias in spatially averaged erosion rates of landscapes dominated by river incision. We discuss the implications of our findings in the context of the proposed coupling between climate and tectonics, and interpreting erosion rate estimates with different averaging time scales through geologic time. PMID:27713925

Time scale bias in erosion rates of glaciated landscapes.

PubMed

Ganti, Vamsi; von Hagke, Christoph; Scherler, Dirk; Lamb, Michael P; Fischer, Woodward W; Avouac, Jean-Philippe

2016-10-01

Deciphering erosion rates over geologic time is fundamental for understanding the interplay between climate, tectonic, and erosional processes. Existing techniques integrate erosion over different time scales, and direct comparison of such rates is routinely done in earth science. On the basis of a global compilation, we show that erosion rate estimates in glaciated landscapes may be affected by a systematic averaging bias that produces higher estimated erosion rates toward the present, which do not reflect straightforward changes in erosion rates through time. This trend can result from a heavy-tailed distribution of erosional hiatuses (that is, time periods where no or relatively slow erosion occurs). We argue that such a distribution can result from the intermittency of erosional processes in glaciated landscapes that are tightly coupled to climate variability from decadal to millennial time scales. In contrast, we find no evidence for a time scale bias in spatially averaged erosion rates of landscapes dominated by river incision. We discuss the implications of our findings in the context of the proposed coupling between climate and tectonics, and interpreting erosion rate estimates with different averaging time scales through geologic time.

The frequency response of a coupled ice sheet-ice shelf-ocean system to climate forcing variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldberg, D.; Snow, K.; Jordan, J. R.; Holland, P.; Arthern, R. J.

2017-12-01

Changes at the West Antarctic ice-ocean boundary in recent decades has triggered significant increases in the regions contribution to global sea-level rise, coincident with large scale, and in some cases potentially unstable, grounding line retreat. Much of the induced change is thought to be driven by fluctuations in the oceanic heat available at the ice-ocean boundary, transported on-shelf via warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW). However, the processes in which ocean heat drives ice-sheet loss remains poorly understood, with observational studies routinely hindered by the extreme environment notorious to the Antarctic region. In this study we apply a novel synchronous coupled ice-ocean model, developed within the MITgcm, and are thus able to provide detailed insight into the impacts of short time scale (interannual to decadal) climate variability and feedbacks within the ice-ocean system. Feedbacks and response are assessed in an idealised ice-sheet/ocean-cavity configuration in which the far field ocean condition is adjusted to emulate periodic climate variability patterns. We reveal a non-linear response of the ice-sheet to periodic variations in thermocline depth. These non-linearities illustrate the heightened sensitivity of fast flowing ice-shelves to periodic perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at interannual and decadal time scales. The results thus highlight how small perturbations in variable climate forcing, like that of ENSO, may trigger large changes in ice-sheet response.

A High-Resolution Record of Holocene Climate Variability from a Western Canadian Coastal Inlet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallimore, A.; Thomson, R. E.; Enkin, R. J.; Kulikov, E. A.; Bertram, M. A.; Wright, C. A.; Southon, J. R.; Barrie, J. V.; Baker, J.; Pienitz, R.; Calvert, S. E.; Chang, A. S.; Pedersen, T. F.

2004-12-01

Conditions within the Pacific Ocean have a major effect on the climate of northwestern North America. High resolution records of present and past northeast Pacific climate are revealed in our multi-disciplinary study of annually laminated marine sediments from anoxic coastal inlets of British Columbia. Past climate conditions for the entire Holocene are recorded in the sediment record contained in a 40 meter, annually laminated marine sediment core taken in Effingham Inlet, on the west coast of Vancouver Island, British Columbia, from the French ship the Marion Dufresne, as part of the international IMAGES program. By combining our eight year continuous instrument record of modern coastal ocean dynamics and climate with high-resolution analysis of depositional processes, we have been able to develop proxy measurements of past climatic and oceanographic changes on annual to millennial time scales. Results indicate that regional climate has oscillated on a variety of time scales throughout the Holocene. At times, climatic change has been dramatically rapid. We are also developing digital methods for statistical time-series analyses of physical sediment properties through the Holocene in order to obtain a more objective quantitative approach for detecting cyclicity in our data. Results of the time series analysis of lamination thickness reveals statistically significant spectral peaks of climate scale variability at established decadal to century time scales. These in turn may be related to solar cycles and quasi-cyclical ocean processes such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. However, the annually laminated time series are periodically interrupted by massive mud intervals which are related to bottom currents and at times paleo-seismic events, illustrating the need for a full understanding of modern oceanographic and sedimentation processes, so an accurate proxy record of past climate can be established.

The summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) variability on decadal to paleoclimate time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linderholm, H. W.; Folland, C. K.; Zhang, P.; Gunnarson, B. E.; Jeong, J. H.; Ren, H.

2017-12-01

The summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO), strongly related to the latitude of the North Atlantic and European summer storm tracks, exerts a considerable influence on European summer climate variability and extremes. Here we extend the period covered by the SNAO from July and August to June, July and August (JJA). As well as marked interannual variability, the JJA SNAO has shown a large inter-decadal change since the 1970s. Decadally averaged, there has been a change from a very positive to a rather negative SNAO phase. This change in SNAO phase is opposite in sign from that expected by a number of climate models under enhanced greenhouse forcing by the late twenty first century. It has led to noticeably wetter summers in North West Europe in the last decade. On interannual to multidecadal timescales, SNAO variability is linked to variations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST): observations and models indicate an association between the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) where the cold (warm) phase of the AMO corresponds a positive (negative) phase of the SNAO. Observations also indicate a link with SST in the Gulf Stream region of the North Atlantic where, particularly on decadal time scales, SST warming may favour a more positive phase of the SNAO. Influences of Arctic climate change on North Atlantic and European atmospheric circulation may also exist, particularly reduced sea ice coverage, perhaps favouring the negative phase of the SNAO. A new tree-ring data based JJA SNAO reconstruction extending over the last millennium, as well as climate model output for the same period, enables us to examine the influence of North Atlantic SST and Arctic sea-ice coverage, as well as SNAO impacts on European summer climate, in a long-term, pre-industrial context.

Drought and Heat Waves: The Role of SST and Land Surface Feedbacks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried

2011-01-01

Drought occurs on a wide range of time scales, and within a variety of different types of regional climates. At the shortest time scales it is often associated with heat waves that last only several weeks to a few months but nevertheless can have profound detrimental impacts on society (e.g., heat-related impacts on human health, desiccation of croplands, increased fire hazard), while at the longest time scales it can extend over decades and can lead to long term structural changes in many aspects of society (e.g., agriculture, water resources, wetlands, tourism, population shifts). There is now considerable evidence that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) play a leading role in the development of drought world-wide, especially at seasonal and longer time scales, though land-atmosphere feedbacks can also play an important role. At shorter (subseasonal) time scales, SSTs are less important, but land feedbacks can play a critical role in maintaining and amplifying the atmospheric conditions associated with heat waves and short-term droughts. This talk reviews our current understanding of the physical mechanisms that drive precipitation and temperature variations on subseasonal to centennial time scales. This includes an assessment of predictability, prediction skill, and user needs at all time scales.

Characteristics of variations of climate change and atmospheric CO2 concentration at different time scales over the past 500 Ma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LIU, Z.; Huang, S. S. X. E. C.; Tang, X.

2015-12-01

It is generally believed that current global warming is due to the persistent rise of atmospheric greenhouse gas CO2. The consensus is based mostly on the observational data of past decades and the polar ice core records. To understand the relationship between climate change and atmospheric CO2, their behaviors over a longer interval at different time scales need to be appreciated. Here, we collect and analyze past 500 Ma records of atmospheric CO2 and temperature in six time periods, namely Phanerozoic, Cenozoic, middle Pleistocene, last deglaciation, past millennium, and recent decades. According to the carriers and time spans, we divide these records into three categories: 1.The millionaire and longer records from model calculation and paleosols/paleobotany proxies. Although the trends of both variables are generally consistent on this time scale, it is difficult to establish a clear causal relationship because of great uncertainties and low resolutions of both sets of data. 2.The orbital scale mainly from the polar ice core. High precise CO2 and temperature reconstructions allow for an examination of the possible role of atmospheric CO2 in the glacial-interglacial transformation. 3.The records at centennial and shorter time scales over the past millennium from ice, snow, and instrumental data. The past millennium records are most abundant and accurate, especially CO2 has been measured directly in recent decades. However, due to the difficulties in distinguishing the effect of CO2 from other factors, there are great uncertainties in the interpretation of climate change versus CO2. Overall, we come to the following conclusions:1.Paleoclimatic reconstructions show that both temperature and atmospheric CO2 have generally decreased over the past 500 Ma. However, there are no consistent sequential orders in the changes between these two variables. 2.The Earth's atmospheric CO2 has a drastic oscillation history. There were many high CO2 periods when the values were higher than 5000 ppm, and there are several low CO2 periods when the values dropped to less than 100 ppm. 3.According to global observational data, atmospheric CO2 has recently exceeded 400 ppm. Although there is no conclusive evidence that shows this value has a special significance, it is the highest since the last 800 ka, and rare over the Quaternary.

Decadal water quality variations at three typical basins of Mekong, Murray and Yukon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Afed U.; Jiang, Jiping; Wang, Peng

2018-02-01

Decadal distribution of water quality parameters is essential for surface water management. Decadal distribution analysis was conducted to assess decadal variations in water quality parameters at three typical watersheds of Murray, Mekong and Yukon. Right distribution shifts were observed for phosphorous and nitrogen parameters at the Mekong watershed monitoring sites while left shifts were noted at the Murray and Yukon monitoring sites. Nutrients pollution increases with time at the Mekong watershed while decreases at the Murray and Yukon watershed monitoring stations. The results implied that watershed located in densely populated developing area has higher risk of water quality deterioration in comparison to thinly populated developed area. The present study suggests best management practices at watershed scale to modulate water pollution.

Relationship between the Arctic oscillation and surface air temperature in multi-decadal time-scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Hiroshi L.; Tamura, Mina

2016-09-01

In this study, a simple energy balance model (EBM) was integrated in time, considering a hypothetical long-term variability in ice-albedo feedback mimicking the observed multi-decadal temperature variability. A natural variability was superimposed on a linear warming trend due to the increasing radiative forcing of CO2. The result demonstrates that the superposition of the natural variability and the background linear trend can offset with each other to show the warming hiatus for some period. It is also stressed that the rapid warming during 1970-2000 can be explained by the superposition of the natural variability and the background linear trend at least within the simple model. The key process of the fluctuating planetary albedo in multi-decadal time scale is investigated using the JRA-55 reanalysis data. It is found that the planetary albedo increased for 1958-1970, decreased for 1970-2000, and increased for 2000-2012, as expected by the simple EBM experiments. The multi-decadal variability in the planetary albedo is compared with the time series of the AO mode and Barents Sea mode of surface air temperature. It is shown that the recent AO negative pattern showing warm Arctic and cold mid-latitudes is in good agreement with planetary albedo change indicating negative anomaly in high latitudes and positive anomaly in mid-latitudes. Moreover, the Barents Sea mode with the warm Barents Sea and cold mid-latitudes shows long-term variability similar to planetary albedo change. Although further studies are needed, the natural variabilities of both the AO mode and Barents Sea mode indicate some possible link to the planetary albedo as suggested by the simple EBM to cause the warming hiatus in recent years.

Continental-Scale Temperature Reconstructions from the PAGES 2k Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaufman, D. S.

2012-12-01

We present a major new synthesis of seven regional temperature reconstructions to elucidate the global pattern of variations and their association with climate-forcing mechanisms over the past two millennia. To coordinate the integration of new and existing data of all proxy types, the Past Global Changes (PAGES) project developed the 2k Network. It comprises nine working groups representing eight continental-scale regions and the oceans. The PAGES 2k Consortium, authoring this paper, presently includes 79 representatives from 25 countries. For this synthesis, each of the PAGES 2k working groups identified the proxy climate records for reconstructing past temperature and associated uncertainty using the data and methodologies that they deemed most appropriate for their region. The datasets are from 973 sites where tree rings, pollen, corals, lake and marine sediment, glacier ice, speleothems, and historical documents record changes in biologically and physically mediated processes that are sensitive to temperature change, among other climatic factors. The proxy records used for this synthesis are available through the NOAA World Data Center for Paleoclimatology. On long time scales, the temperature reconstructions display similarities among regions, and a large part of this common behavior can be explained by known climate forcings. Reconstructed temperatures in all regions show an overall long-term cooling trend until around 1900 C.E., followed by strong warming during the 20th century. On the multi-decadal time scale, we assessed the variability among the temperature reconstructions using principal component (PC) analysis of the standardized decadal mean temperatures over the period of overlap among the reconstructions (1200 to 1980 C.E.). PC1 explains 35% of the total variability and is strongly correlated with temperature reconstructions from the four Northern Hemisphere regions, and with the sum of external forcings including solar, volcanic, and greenhouse gases. PC2 captures 18% of the variability and is correlated most strongly with the Southern Hemisphere regions of Australasia and South America. PC3 captures 15% of the variability in the temperature reconstructions with a predominant loading from Antarctica. The timing of extremely warm and cold decades (10th percentiles) in each region were analyzed and compared with climate forcings. Only 22% of the regionally coldest decades can be ascribed to extreme minima in solar forcing, and 17% to volcanic forcing. The association between extremely warm regional temperatures and solar maxima is weaker than for cold temperatures and their corresponding solar minima. Spatially, volcanic forcing moderately increased the frequency of extremely cold decades in the Northern Hemisphere reconstructions, but had no significant effect in the Southern Hemisphere. Solar and volcanic impacts do not induce globally consistent decadal temperature shifts, but they increase the probability of cooling or warming at the continental scale. The majority of cold and warm decades identified here cannot be explained by changes in the records of volcanic activity or solar forcing. This indicates that at this timescale, prior to the anthropogenic buildup of greenhouse gases, unforced internal variability in the coupled ocean/atmosphere system was the dominant control on temperature variation.

Herbivore Impact on Tundra Plant Community Dynamics Using Long-term Remote Sensing Observation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Q.; Engstrom, R.; Shiklomanov, N. I.

2014-12-01

Arctic tundra biome is now experiencing dramatic environmental changes accentuated by summer sea-ice decline, permafrost thaw, and shrub expansion. Multi-decadal time-series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, a spectral metric of vegetation productivity) shows an overall "greening" trend across the Arctic tundra biome. Regional trends in climate plausibly explain large-scale patterns of increasing plant productivity, as diminished summer sea-ice extent warms the adjacent land causing tundra vegetation to respond positively (increased photosynthetic aboveground biomass). However, at more local scales, there is a great deal of spatial variability in NDVI trends that likely reflects differences in hydrology and soil conditions, disturbance history, and use by wildlife and humans. Particularly, habitat use by large herbivores, such as reindeer and caribou, has large impacts on vegetation dynamics at local and regional scales, but the role of herbivores in modulating the response of vegetation to warming climate has received little attention. This study investigates regional tundra plant community dynamics within inhabits of different sizes of wild caribou/reindeer herds across the Arctic using GIMMS NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) 3g data product. The Taimyr herd in Russia is one of the largest herds in the world with a population increase from 450,000 in 1975 to about 1 million animals in 2000. The population of the porcupine caribou herd has fluctuated in the past three decades between 100,000 and 180,000. Time-series of the maximum NDVI within the inhabit area of the Taimyr herd has increased about 2% per decade over the past three decades, while within the inhabit area of the Porcupine herd the maximum NDVI has increased about 5% per decade. Our results indicate that the impact of large herbivores can be detected from space and further analyses on seasonal dynamics of vegetation indices and herbivore behavior may provide more understanding of the plant-herbivore interactions within the context of a 'greening' Arctic.

Decadal variability of precipitation over Western North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, D.R.; Dettinger, M.D.; Diaz, Henry F.; Graham, N.E.

1998-01-01

Decadal (>7- yr period) variations of precipitation over western North America account for 20%-50% of the variance of annual precipitation. Spatially, the decadal variability is broken into several regional [O(1000 km)] components. These decadal variations are contributed by fluctuations in precipitation from seasons of the year that vary from region to region and that are not necessarily concentrated in the wettest season(s) alone. The precipitation variations are linked to various decadal atmospheric circulation and SST anomaly patterns where scales range from regional to global scales and that emphasize tropical or extratropical connections, depending upon which precipitation region is considered. Further, wet or dry decades are associated with changes in frequency of at least a few short-period circulation 'modes' such as the Pacific-North American pattern. Precipitation fluctuations over the southwestern United States and the Saskatchewan region of western Canada are associated with extensive shifts of sea level pressure and SST anomalies, suggesting that they are components of low-frequency precipitation variability from global-scale climate proceses. Consistent with the global scale of its pressure and SST connection, the Southwest decadal precipitation is aligned with opposing precipitation fluctuations in northern Africa.Decadal (>7-yr period) variations of precipitation over western North America account for 20%-50% of the variance of annual precipitation. Spatially, the decadal variability is broken into several regional [O(1000 km)] components. These decadal variations are contributed by fluctuations in precipitation from seasons of the year that vary from region to region and that are not necessarily concentrated in the wettest season(s) alone. The precipitation variations are linked to various decadal atmospheric circulation and SST anomaly patterns where scales range from regional to global scales and that emphasize tropical or extratropical connections, depending upon which precipitation region is considered. Further, wet or dry decades are associated with changes in frequency of at least a few short-period circulation `modes' such as the Pacific-North American pattern. Precipitation fluctuations over the southwestern United States and the Saskatchewan region of western Canada are associated with extensive shifts of sea level pressure and SST anomalies, suggesting that they are components of low-frequency precipitation variability from global-scale climate processes. Consistent with the global scale of its pressure and SST connection, the Southwest decadal precipitation is aligned with opposing precipitation fluctuations in northern Africa.

Climate-change driven increase in high intensity rainfall events: Analysis of development in the last decades and towards an extrapolation of future progression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Eva; Pfister, Angela; Gerd, Büger; Maik, Heistermann; Bronstert, Axel

2015-04-01

Hydrological extreme events can be triggered by rainfall on different spatiotemporal scales: river floods are typically caused by event durations of between hours and days, while urban flash floods as well as soil erosion or contaminant transport rather result from storms events of very short duration (minutes). Still, the analysis of climate change impacts on rainfall-induced extreme events is usually carried out using daily precipitation data at best. Trend analyses of extreme rainfall at sub-daily or even sub-hourly time scales are rare. In this contribution two lines of research are combined: first, we analyse sub-hourly rainfall data for several decades in three European regions.Second, we investigate the scaling behaviour of heavy short-term precipitation with temperature, i.e. the dependence of high intensity rainfall on the atmospheric temperature at that particular time and location. The trend analysis of high-resolution rainfall data shows for the first time that the frequency of short and intensive storm events in the temperate lowland regions in Germany has increased by up to 0.5 events per year over the last decades. I.e. this trend suggests that the occurrence of these types of storms have multiplied over only a few decades. Parallel to the changes in the rainfall regime, increases in the annual and seasonal average temperature and changes in the occurrence of circulation patterns responsible for the generation of high-intensity storms have been found. The analysis of temporally highly resolved rainfall records from three European regions further indicates that extreme precipitation events are more intense with warmer temperatures during the rainfall event. These observations follow partly the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Based on this relation one may derive a general rule of maximum rainfall intensity associated to the event temperature, roughly following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This rule might be used for scenarios of future maximum rainfall intensities under a warming climate.

Unforced decadal fluctuations in a coupled model of the atmosphere and ocean mixed layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnett, T. P.; Del Genio, A. D.; Ruedy, R. A.

1992-01-01

Global average temperature in a 100-year control run of a model used for greenhouse gas response simulations showed low-frequency natural variability comparable in magnitude to that observed over the last 100 years. The model variability was found to be barotropic in the atmosphere, and located in the tropical strip with largest values near the equator in the Pacific. The model variations were traced to complex, low-frequency interactions between the meridional sea surface temperature gradients in the eastern equatorial Pacific, clouds at both high and low levels, and features of the tropical atmospheric circulation. The variations in these and other model parameters appear to oscillate between two limiting climate states. The physical scenario accounting for the oscillations on decadal time scales is almost certainly not found in the real world on shorter time scales due to limited resolution and the omission of key physics (e.g., equatorial ocean dynamics) in the model. The real message is that models with dynamical limitations can still produce significant long-term variability. Only a thorough physical diagnosis of such simulations and comparisons with decadal-length data sets will allow one to decide if faith in the model results is, or is not, warranted.

Individual differences influence two-digit number processing, but not their analog magnitude processing: a large-scale online study.

PubMed

Huber, Stefan; Nuerk, Hans-Christoph; Reips, Ulf-Dietrich; Soltanlou, Mojtaba

2017-12-23

Symbolic magnitude comparison is one of the most well-studied cognitive processes in research on numerical cognition. However, while the cognitive mechanisms of symbolic magnitude processing have been intensively studied, previous studies have paid less attention to individual differences influencing symbolic magnitude comparison. Employing a two-digit number comparison task in an online setting, we replicated previous effects, including the distance effect, the unit-decade compatibility effect, and the effect of cognitive control on the adaptation to filler items, in a large-scale study in 452 adults. Additionally, we observed that the most influential individual differences were participants' first language, time spent playing computer games and gender, followed by reported alcohol consumption, age and mathematical ability. Participants who used a first language with a left-to-right reading/writing direction were faster than those who read and wrote in the right-to-left direction. Reported playing time for computer games was correlated with faster reaction times. Female participants showed slower reaction times and a larger unit-decade compatibility effect than male participants. Participants who reported never consuming alcohol showed overall slower response times than others. Older participants were slower, but more accurate. Finally, higher grades in mathematics were associated with faster reaction times. We conclude that typical experiments on numerical cognition that employ a keyboard as an input device can also be run in an online setting. Moreover, while individual differences have no influence on domain-specific magnitude processing-apart from age, which increases the decade distance effect-they generally influence performance on a two-digit number comparison task.

Changes in intense tropical cyclone activity for the western North Pacific during the last decades derived from a regional climate model simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcikowska, Monika; Feser, Frauke; Zhang, Wei; Mei, Wei

2017-11-01

An atmospheric regional climate model (CCLM) was employed to dynamically downscale atmospheric reanalyses (NCEP/NCAR 1, ERA 40) over the western North Pacific and South East Asia. This approach is used for the first time to reconstruct a tropical cyclone climatology, which extends beyond the satellite era and serves as an alternative data set for inhomogeneous observation-derived records (Best Track Data sets). The simulated TC climatology skillfully reproduces observations of the recent decades (1978-2010), including spatial patterns, frequency, lifetime, trends, variability on interannual and decadal time scales and their association with the large-scale circulation patterns. These skills, facilitated here with the spectral nudging method, seem to be a prerequisite to understand the factors determining spatio-temporal variability of TC activity over the western North Pacific. Long-term trends (1948-2011 and 1959-2001) in both simulations show a strong increase of intense tropical cyclone activity. This contrasts with pronounced multidecadal variations found in observations. The discrepancy may partly originate from temporal inhomogeneities in atmospheric reanalyses and Best Track Data, which affect both the model-based and observational-based trends. An adjustment, which removes the simulated upward trend, reduces the apparent discrepancy. Ultimately, our observational and modeling analysis suggests an important contribution of multi-decadal fluctuations in the TC activity during the last six decades. Nevertheless, due to the uncertainties associated with the inconsistencies and quality changes of those data sets, we call for special caution when reconstructing long-term TC statistics either from atmospheric reanalyses or Best Track Data.

Evidence for a possible modern and mid-Holocene solar influence on climate from Lake Titicaca, South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theissen, K. M.; Dunbar, R. B.

2005-12-01

In tropical regions, there are few paleoclimate archives with the necessary resolution to investigate climate variability at interannual-to-decadal timescales prior to the onset of the instrumental record. Interannual variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well documented in the instrumental record and the importance of the precessional forcing of millennial variability has been established in studies of tropical paleoclimate records. In contrast, decade-to-century variability is still poorly understood. Here, we examine interannual to decadal variability in the northern Altiplano of South America using digital image analysis of a floating interval of varved sediments of middle Holocene age (~6160-6310 yr BP) from Lake Titicaca. Multi-taper method (MTM) and wavelet frequency-domain analyses were performed on a time series generated from a gray-scaled digital image of the mm-thick laminations. Our results indicate significant power at a decadal periodicity (10-12 years) associated with the Schwabe cycle of solar activity. Frequency-domain analysis also indicates power at 2-2.5 year periodicities associated with ENSO. Similarly, spectral analysis of a 75 year instrumental record of Titicaca lake level shows significant power at both solar and ENSO periodicities. Although both of the examined records are short, our results imply that during both the mid-Holocene and modern times, solar and ENSO variability may have contributed to high frequency climate fluctuations over the northern Altiplano. We suspect that solar influence on large-scale atmospheric circulation features may account for the decadal variability in the mid-Holocene and present-day water balance of the Altiplano.

Geomagnetic field declination: from decadal to centennial scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dobrica, Venera; Demetrescu, Crisan; Mandea, Mioara

2018-04-01

Declination annual mean time series longer than 1 century provided by 24 geomagnetic observatories worldwide, together with 5 Western European reconstructed declination series over the last 4 centuries, have been analyzed in terms of the frequency constituents of the secular variation at inter-decadal and sub-centennial timescales of 20-35 and 70-90 years. Observatory and reconstructed time series have been processed by several types of filtering, namely Hodrick-Prescott, running averages, and Butterworth. The Hodrick-Prescott filtering allows us to separate a quasi-oscillation at a decadal timescale, which is assumed to be related to external variations and called the 11-year constituent, from a long-term trend. The latter has been decomposed into two other oscillations called inter-decadal and sub-centennial constituents by applying a Butterworth filtering with cutoffs at 30 and 73 years, respectively. The analysis shows that the generally accepted geomagnetic jerks occur around extrema in the time derivative of the trend and coincide with extrema in the time derivative of the 11-year constituent. The sub-centennial constituent is traced back to 1600 in the five 400-year-long time series and seems to be a major constituent of the secular variation, geomagnetic jerks included.

A Decade-long Continental-Scale Convection-Resolving Climate Simulation on GPUs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leutwyler, David; Fuhrer, Oliver; Lapillonne, Xavier; Lüthi, Daniel; Schär, Christoph

2016-04-01

The representation of moist convection in climate models represents a major challenge, due to the small scales involved. Convection-resolving models have proven to be very useful tools in numerical weather prediction and in climate research. Using horizontal grid spacings of O(1km), they allow to explicitly resolve deep convection leading to an improved representation of the water cycle. However, due to their extremely demanding computational requirements, they have so far been limited to short simulations and/or small computational domains. Innovations in the supercomputing domain have led to new supercomputer-designs that involve conventional multicore CPUs and accelerators such as graphics processing units (GPUs). One of the first atmospheric models that has been fully ported to GPUs is the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling weather and climate model COSMO. This new version allows us to expand the size of the simulation domain to areas spanning continents and the time period up to one decade. We present results from a decade-long, convection-resolving climate simulation using the GPU-enabled COSMO version. The simulation is driven by the ERA-interim reanalysis. The results illustrate how the approach allows for the representation of interactions between synoptic-scale and meso-scale atmospheric circulations at scales ranging from 1000 to 10 km. We discuss the performance of the convection-resolving modeling approach on the European scale. Specifically we focus on the annual cycle of convection in Europe, on the organization of convective clouds and on the verification of hourly rainfall with various high resolution datasets.

Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations in National Parks of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, H.; McGlynn, D. F.; Wu, Z.; Sive, B. C.

2017-12-01

A time scale decomposition technique, the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), has been employed to decompose the time scales in long-term ozone measurement data at 24 US National Park Service sites. Time scales of interest include the annual cycle, variability by large scale climate oscillations, and the long-term trend. The implementation of policy regulations was found to have had a greater effect on sites nearest to urban regions. Ozone daily mean values increased until around the late 1990s followed by decreasing trends during the ensuing decades for sites in the East, southern California, and northwestern Washington. Sites in the Midwest did not experience a reversal of trends from positive to negative until the mid- to late 2000s. The magnitude of the annual amplitude decreased for nine sites and increased for three sites. Stronger decreases in the annual amplitude occurred in the East, with more sites in the East experiencing decreases in annual amplitude than in the West. The date of annual ozone peaks and minimums has changed for 12 sites in total, but those with a shift in peak date did not necessarily have a shift in the trough date. There appeared to be a link between peak dates occurring earlier and a decrease in the annual amplitude. This is likely related to a decrease in ozone titration due to NOx emission reductions. Furthermore, it was found that the shift in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) regime from positive to negative in 1998-1999 resulting in an increase in occurrences of La Niña-like conditions had the effect of directing more polluted air masses from East Asia to higher latitudes over North America. This change in PDO regime was likely one main factor causing the increase in ozone concentrations on all time scales at an Alaskan site DENA-HQ.

Variable solar irradiance as a plausible agent for multidecadal variations in the Arctic-wide surface air temperature record of the past 130 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soon, Willie W.-H.

2005-08-01

This letter offers new evidence motivating a more serious consideration of the potential Arctic temperature responses as a consequence of the decadal, multidecadal and longer-term persistent forcing by the ever-changing solar irradiance both in terms of total solar irradiance (TSI, i.e., integrated over all wavelengths) and the related UV irradiance. The support for such a solar modulator can be minimally derived from the large (>75%) explained variance for the decadally-smoothed Arctic surface air temperatures (SATs) by TSI and from the time-frequency structures of the TSI and Arctic SAT variability as examined by wavelet analyses. The reconstructed Arctic SAT time series based on the inverse wavelet transform, which includes decadal (5-15 years) and multidecadal (40-80 years) variations and a longer-term trend, contains nonstationary but persistent features that are highly correlated with the Sun's intrinsic magnetic variability especially on multidecadal time scales.

Functional connectivity dynamically evolves on multiple time-scales over a static structural connectome: Models and mechanisms.

PubMed

Cabral, Joana; Kringelbach, Morten L; Deco, Gustavo

2017-10-15

Over the last decade, we have observed a revolution in brain structural and functional Connectomics. On one hand, we have an ever-more detailed characterization of the brain's white matter structural connectome. On the other, we have a repertoire of consistent functional networks that form and dissipate over time during rest. Despite the evident spatial similarities between structural and functional connectivity, understanding how different time-evolving functional networks spontaneously emerge from a single structural network requires analyzing the problem from the perspective of complex network dynamics and dynamical system's theory. In that direction, bottom-up computational models are useful tools to test theoretical scenarios and depict the mechanisms at the genesis of resting-state activity. Here, we provide an overview of the different mechanistic scenarios proposed over the last decade via computational models. Importantly, we highlight the need of incorporating additional model constraints considering the properties observed at finer temporal scales with MEG and the dynamical properties of FC in order to refresh the list of candidate scenarios. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multi-Decadal to Millennial Scale Holocene Hydrologic Variation in the Southern Hemisphere Tropics of South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ekdahl, E. J.; Fritz, S. C.; Baker, P. A.; Burns, S. J.; Coley, K.; Rigsby, C. A.

2005-12-01

Numerous sites in the Northern Hemisphere show multi-decadal to millennial scale climate variation during the Holocene, many of which have been correlated with changes in atmospheric radiocarbon production or with changes in North Atlantic oceanic circulation. The manifestation of such climate variability in the hydrology of the Southern Hemisphere tropics of South America is unclear, because of the limited number of records at suitably high resolution. In the Lake Titicaca drainage basin of Bolivia and Peru, high-resolution lacustrine records reveal the overall pattern of Holocene lake-level change, the influence of precessional forcing of the South American Summer Monsoon, and the effects of high-frequency climate variability in records of lake productivity and lake ecology. Precessional forcing of regional precipitation is evident in the Lake Titicaca basin as a massive (ca. 85 m) mid-Holocene decline in lake level beginning about 7800 cal yr BP and a subsequent rise in lake level after 4000 cal yr BP. Here we show that multi-decadal to millennial-scale climate variability, superimposed upon the envelope of change at orbital time scales, is similar in timing and pattern to the ice-rafted debris record of Holocene Bond events in the North Atlantic. A high-resolution carbon isotopic record from Lake Titicaca that spans the entire Holocene suggests that cold intervals of Holocene Bond events are periods of increased precipitation, thus indicating an anti-phasing of precipitation variation on the Altiplano relative to the Northern Hemisphere tropics. A similar pattern of variation is also evident in high-resolution (2-30 yr spacing) diatom and geochemical records that span the last 7000 yr from two smaller lakes, Lagos Umayo and Lagunillas, in the Lake Titicaca drainage basin.

Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hongmei; Ilyina, Tatiana

2018-01-01

We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemble mean), and the largest internal variability is found in major carbon sink regions, that is, the 50-65°S band of the Southern Ocean, the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic. The MPI-ESM ensemble produces both positive and negative 10 year trends in the ocean carbon uptake in agreement with observational estimates. Negative decadal trends are projected to occur in the future under RCP4.5 scenario. Due to the large internal variability, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific require the most ensemble members (more than 53 and 46, respectively) to reproduce the forced decadal trends. This number increases up to 79 in future decades as CO2 emission trajectory changes.

Hysteresis, regime shifts, and non-stationarity in aquifer recharge-storage-discharge systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klammler, Harald; Jawitz, James; Annable, Michael; Hatfield, Kirk; Rao, Suresh

2016-04-01

Based on physical principles and geological information we develop a parsimonious aquifer model for Silver Springs, one of the largest karst springs in Florida. The model structure is linear and time-invariant with recharge, aquifer head (storage) and spring discharge as dynamic variables at the springshed (landscape) scale. Aquifer recharge is the hydrological driver with trends over a range of time scales from seasonal to multi-decadal. The freshwater-saltwater interaction is considered as a dynamic storage mechanism. Model results and observed time series show that aquifer storage causes significant rate-dependent hysteretic behavior between aquifer recharge and discharge. This leads to variable discharge per unit recharge over time scales up to decades, which may be interpreted as a gradual and cyclic regime shift in the aquifer drainage behavior. Based on field observations, we further amend the aquifer model by assuming vegetation growth in the spring run to be inversely proportional to stream velocity and to hinder stream flow. This simple modification introduces non-linearity into the dynamic system, for which we investigate the occurrence of rate-independent hysteresis and of different possible steady states with respective regime shifts between them. Results may contribute towards explaining observed non-stationary behavior potentially due to hydrological regime shifts (e.g., triggered by gradual, long-term changes in recharge or single extreme events) or long-term hysteresis (e.g., caused by aquifer storage). This improved understanding of the springshed hydrologic response dynamics is fundamental for managing the ecological, economic and social aspects at the landscape scale.

Acoustic Model Testing Chronology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nesman, Tom

2017-01-01

Scale models have been used for decades to replicate liftoff environments and in particular acoustics for launch vehicles. It is assumed, and analyses supports, that the key characteristics of noise generation, propagation, and measurement can be scaled. Over time significant insight was gained not just towards understanding the effects of thruster details, pad geometry, and sound mitigation but also to the physical processes involved. An overview of a selected set of scale model tests are compiled here to illustrate the variety of configurations that have been tested and the fundamental knowledge gained. The selected scale model tests are presented chronologically.

Tipping the Scales: National Trends of Declining Social Studies Instructional Time in Elementary Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heafner, Tina L.; Fitchett, Paul G.

2012-01-01

By means of data from the most comprehensive source of teacher data in the nation, Schools and Public School Teacher Staffing Survey (SASS), we designed a follow-up quantitative study to test the effects of two decades of national policy mandates on instructional time allotments for core academic subjects. We used data from the SASS data from…

Accuracy requirements. [for monitoring of climate changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delgenio, Anthony

1993-01-01

Satellite and surface measurements, if they are to serve as a climate monitoring system, must be accurate enough to permit detection of changes of climate parameters on decadal time scales. The accuracy requirements are difficult to define a priori since they depend on unknown future changes of climate forcings and feedbacks. As a framework for evaluation of candidate Climsat instruments and orbits, we estimate the accuracies that would be needed to measure changes expected over two decades based on theoretical considerations including GCM simulations and on observational evidence in cases where data are available for rates of change. One major climate forcing known with reasonable accuracy is that caused by the anthropogenic homogeneously mixed greenhouse gases (CO2, CFC's, CH4 and N2O). Their net forcing since the industrial revolution began is about 2 W/sq m and it is presently increasing at a rate of about 1 W/sq m per 20 years. Thus for a competing forcing or feedback to be important, it needs to be of the order of 0.25 W/sq m or larger on this time scale. The significance of most climate feedbacks depends on their sensitivity to temperature change. Therefore we begin with an estimate of decadal temperature change. Presented are the transient temperature trends simulated by the GISS GCM when subjected to various scenarios of trace gas concentration increases. Scenario B, which represents the most plausible near-term emission rates and includes intermittent forcing by volcanic aerosols, yields a global mean surface air temperature increase Delta Ts = 0.7 degrees C over the time period 1995-2015. This is consistent with the IPCC projection of about 0.3 degrees C/decade global warming (IPCC, 1990). Several of our estimates below are based on this assumed rate of warming.

Decadal variability on the Northwest European continental shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Sam; Cottier, Finlo; Inall, Mark; Griffiths, Colin

2018-02-01

Decadal scale time series of the shelf seas are important for understanding both climate and process studies. Despite numerous investigations of long-term temperature variability in the shelf seas, studies of salinity variability are few. Salt is a more conservative tracer than temperature in shallow seas, and it can reveal changes in local hydrographic conditions as well as transmitted basin-scale changes. Here, new inter-annual salinity time series on the northwest European shelf are developed and a 13 year high resolution salinity record from a coastal mooring in western Scotland is presented and analysed. We find strong temporal variability in coastal salinity on timescales ranging from tidal to inter-annual, with the magnitude of variability greatest during winter months. There is little seasonality and no significant decadal trend in the coastal time series of salinity. We propose 4 hydrographic states to explain salinity variance in the shelf area west of Scotland based on the interaction between a baroclinic coastal current and wind-forced barotropic flow: while wind forcing is important, we find that changes in the buoyancy-driven flow are more likely to influence long-term salinity observations. We calculate that during prevailing westerly wind conditions, surface waters in the Sea of the Hebrides receive a mix of 62% Atlantic origin water to 38% coastal sources. This contrasts with easterly wind conditions, during which the mix is 6% Atlantic to 94% coastal sources on average. This 'switching' between hydrographic states is expected to impact nutrient transport and therefore modify the level of primary productivity on the shelf. This strong local variability in salinity is roughly an order of magnitude greater than changes in the adjacent ocean basin, and we infer from this that Scottish coastal waters are likely to be resilient to decadal changes in ocean climate.

The impact of multi-decadal sub-surface circulation changes on sea surface chlorophyll patterns in the tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schollaert Uz, S.; Busalacchi, A. J.; Smith, T. M.; Evans, M. N.; Brown, C.; Hackert, E. C.; Wang, X.

2016-12-01

The tropical Pacific is a region of strong forcing where physical oceanography primarily controls biological variability over the seasonal to interannual time scales observed since dedicated ocean color satellite remote sensing began in 1997. To quantify how multi-decadal, climate-scale changes impact marine biological dynamics, we used the correlation with sea-surface temperature and height to reconstruct a 50-year time series of surface chlorophyll concentrations. The reconstruction demonstrates greatest skill away from the coast and within 10o of the equator where chlorophyll variance is greatest and primarily associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics and secondarily associated with decadal variability. We observe significant basin-wide differences between east and central Pacific events when the El Niño events are strong: chlorophyll increases with La Niña and decreases with El Niño, with larger declines east of 180o for remotely-forced east Pacific events and west of 180o for locally-forced central Pacific events. Chlorophyll variations also reflect the physical dynamics of Pacific decadal variability with small but significant differences between cool and warm eras: consistent with advection variability west of 180o and likely driven by subsurface changes in the nutricline depth between 110-140oW. Comparisons with output from a fully-coupled biogeochemical model support the hypothesis that this anomalous region is controlled by lower frequency changes in subsurface circulation patterns that transport nutrients to the surface. Basin-wide chlorophyll distributions exhibiting spatial heterogeneity in response to multi-decadal climate forcing imply similar long-term changes in phytoplankton productivity, with implications for the marine food web and the ocean's role as a carbon sink.

Climate change-driven cliff and beach evolution at decadal to centennial time scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erikson, Li; O'Neill, Andrea; Barnard, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Limber, Patrick

2017-01-01

Here we develop a computationally efficient method that evolves cross-shore profiles of sand beaches with or without cliffs along natural and urban coastal environments and across expansive geographic areas at decadal to centennial time-scales driven by 21st century climate change projections. The model requires projected sea level rise rates, extrema of nearshore wave conditions, bluff recession and shoreline change rates, and cross-shore profiles representing present-day conditions. The model is applied to the ~470-km long coast of the Southern California Bight, USA, using recently available projected nearshore waves and bluff recession and shoreline change rates. The results indicate that eroded cliff material, from unarmored cliffs, contribute 11% to 26% to the total sediment budget. Historical beach nourishment rates will need to increase by more than 30% for a 0.25 m sea level rise (~2044) and by at least 75% by the year 2100 for a 1 m sea level rise, if evolution of the shoreline is to keep pace with rising sea levels.

Towards the 1 mm/y stability of the radial orbit error at regional scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couhert, Alexandre; Cerri, Luca; Legeais, Jean-François; Ablain, Michael; Zelensky, Nikita P.; Haines, Bruce J.; Lemoine, Frank G.; Bertiger, William I.; Desai, Shailen D.; Otten, Michiel

2015-01-01

An estimated orbit error budget for the Jason-1 and Jason-2 GDR-D solutions is constructed, using several measures of orbit error. The focus is on the long-term stability of the orbit time series for mean sea level applications on a regional scale. We discuss various issues related to the assessment of radial orbit error trends; in particular this study reviews orbit errors dependent on the tracking technique, with an aim to monitoring the long-term stability of all available tracking systems operating on Jason-1 and Jason-2 (GPS, DORIS, SLR). The reference frame accuracy and its effect on Jason orbit is assessed. We also examine the impact of analysis method on the inference of Geographically Correlated Errors as well as the significance of estimated radial orbit error trends versus the time span of the analysis. Thus a long-term error budget of the 10-year Jason-1 and Envisat GDR-D orbit time series is provided for two time scales: interannual and decadal. As the temporal variations of the geopotential remain one of the primary limitations in the Precision Orbit Determination modeling, the overall accuracy of the Jason-1 and Jason-2 GDR-D solutions is evaluated through comparison with external orbits based on different time-variable gravity models. This contribution is limited to an East-West “order-1” pattern at the 2 mm/y level (secular) and 4 mm level (seasonal), over the Jason-2 lifetime. The possibility of achieving sub-mm/y radial orbit stability over interannual and decadal periods at regional scales and the challenge of evaluating such an improvement using in situ independent data is discussed.

Towards the 1 mm/y Stability of the Radial Orbit Error at Regional Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Couhert, Alexandre; Cerri, Luca; Legeais, Jean-Francois; Ablain, Michael; Zelensky, Nikita P.; Haines, Bruce J.; Lemoine, Frank G.; Bertiger, William I.; Desai, Shailen D.; Otten, Michiel

2015-01-01

An estimated orbit error budget for the Jason-1 and Jason-2 GDR-D solutions is constructed, using several measures of orbit error. The focus is on the long-term stability of the orbit time series for mean sea level applications on a regional scale. We discuss various issues related to the assessment of radial orbit error trends; in particular this study reviews orbit errors dependent on the tracking technique, with an aim to monitoring the long-term stability of all available tracking systems operating on Jason-1 and Jason-2 (GPS, DORIS, SLR). The reference frame accuracy and its effect on Jason orbit is assessed. We also examine the impact of analysis method on the inference of Geographically Correlated Errors as well as the significance of estimated radial orbit error trends versus the time span of the analysis. Thus a long-term error budget of the 10-year Jason-1 and Envisat GDR-D orbit time series is provided for two time scales: interannual and decadal. As the temporal variations of the geopotential remain one of the primary limitations in the Precision Orbit Determination modeling, the overall accuracy of the Jason-1 and Jason-2 GDR-D solutions is evaluated through comparison with external orbits based on different time-variable gravity models. This contribution is limited to an East-West "order-1" pattern at the 2 mm/y level (secular) and 4 mm level (seasonal), over the Jason-2 lifetime. The possibility of achieving sub-mm/y radial orbit stability over interannual and decadal periods at regional scales and the challenge of evaluating such an improvement using in situ independent data is discussed.

Towards the 1 mm/y Stability of the Radial Orbit Error at Regional Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Couhert, Alexandre; Cerri, Luca; Legeais, Jean-Francois; Ablain, Michael; Zelensky, Nikita P.; Haines, Bruce J.; Lemoine, Frank G.; Bertiger, William I.; Desai, Shailen D.; Otten, Michiel

2014-01-01

An estimated orbit error budget for the Jason-1 and Jason-2 GDR-D solutions is constructed, using several measures of orbit error. The focus is on the long-term stability of the orbit time series for mean sea level applications on a regional scale. We discuss various issues related to the assessment of radial orbit error trends; in particular this study reviews orbit errors dependent on the tracking technique, with an aim to monitoring the long-term stability of all available tracking systems operating on Jason-1 and Jason-2 (GPS, DORIS,SLR). The reference frame accuracy and its effect on Jason orbit is assessed. We also examine the impact of analysis method on the inference of Geographically Correlated Errors as well as the significance of estimated radial orbit error trends versus the time span of the analysis. Thus a long-term error budget of the 10-year Jason-1 and Envisat GDR-D orbit time series is provided for two time scales: interannual and decadal. As the temporal variations of the geopotential remain one of the primary limitations in the Precision Orbit Determination modeling, the overall accuracy of the Jason-1 and Jason-2 GDR-D solutions is evaluated through comparison with external orbits based on different time-variable gravity models. This contribution is limited to an East-West "order-1" pattern at the 2 mm/y level (secular) and 4 mm level (seasonal), over the Jason-2 lifetime. The possibility of achieving sub-mm/y radial orbit stability over interannual and decadal periods at regional scales and the challenge of evaluating such an improvement using in situ independent data is discussed.

Forcing of Climate Variations by Mev-gev Particles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tinsley, Brian A.

1990-01-01

Changes in ionization production in the lower stratosphere by a few percent during Forbush decreases have been shown to correlate well with changes in winter tropospheric dynamics by a similar relatively small amount. Changes in ionization production by tens of percent on the decadal time scale have been shown to be correlated with changes in winter storm frequencies by tens of percent in the western North Atlantic. Changes in total solar irradiance or solar UV do not have time variations to match the tropospheric variations on the day to day time scales discussed here. Forcing related to magnetic activity is not supported. Thus solar wind/MeV-GeV particle changes appear to be the only viable forcing function for these day to day variations. If solar wind/particle forcing of a few percent amplitude can produce short term weather responses, then observed changes by tens of percent on the decadal and centennial time scale could produce climate changes on these longer time scales. The changes in circulation involved would produce regional climate changes, as observed. At present the relations between stratospheric ionization, electric fields and chemistry and aerosol and cloud microphysics are as poorly known as the relations between the latter and storm feedback processes. However, the capability for investigating these relationships now exists and has recently been most successfully used for elucidating the stratospheric chemistry and cloud microphysics associated with the Antarctic ozone hole. The economic benefits of being able to predict winter severity on an interannual basis, and the extent to which climate change related to solar variability will add to or substract from the greenhouse effect, should be more than adequate to justify support for research in this area.

D/H Ratios From Sierra Nevada Varved Lake Sediments Record Decadal Hydroclimate Variability During The Medieval Period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roach, L. D.; Cayan, D. R.; Sessions, A. L.; Charles, C. D.; Anderson, R. S.

2009-12-01

Assessment of the risks of persistent drought requires multiple realizations of decadal and centennial scale hydroclimate variability that extend beyond the relatively short period of instrumental record. Much remains to be learned about the so called “mega droughts” in the Sierra Nevada Mountains, where various lines of evidence point toward the occurrence of severe, decades-long droughts during Medieval times, approximately 900-1400 AD. Here we present a continuous, decadal scale record of hydroclimate variability in the Sierra Nevada Mountains that extends through the heart of the purported Medieval mega droughts. Previous work on the stable hydrogen isotope (D/H) ratios of refractory plant lipid compounds stored in lake sediments demonstrated that these compounds reflect the D/H values of lake water and/or shallow ground water--reservoirs both fed by local precipitation. Lake sediment D/H can therefore reflect the processes that determine D/H of precipitation, including temperature, humidity and moisture source. We have measured D/H of aquatic and terrestrial plant fatty acids extracted from a suite of sediment cores collected at Swamp Lake (elevation: 1554m), in Yosemite National Park, along the Sierra Nevada crest. Measurements with biennial resolution were made for two time periods: the 20th century and the 13th-15th centuries. D/H fluctuations in 20th century sediment contain relatively strong decadal structure. Comparison with instrumentally recorded climate variability reveals that lower D/H concentrations are associated with years of higher than normal annual precipitation, cooler than normal wintertime temperatures, and positive April 1 Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) anomalies throughout the Sierra Nevada, (and conversely for elevated D/H concentrations). The range of variability is approximately 50‰. These associations may be driven by the variable mass-balance impact of evaporation on the isotopic composition of lake water and shallow groundwater in the Swamp Lake watershed, depending on the extent to which these reservoirs are replenished seasonally by wintertime precipitation. Throughout the Medieval period, we observe significant (>30‰), reproducible D/H variability that also fluctuates on multi-year to decadal time scales, with mean values falling within the same range as those recorded over the 20th century. Strong covariance among the aquatic and terrestrial plant fatty acids analyzed, along with the mean values, lends confidence that primary isotopic signatures have been retained. These results can therefore be compared directly to other measures of hydroclimate variability throughout the last millennium, offering a unique new perspective on the mega-drought intervals.

Trend and variability in western and central Africa streamflow, and their relation to climate variability between 1950 and 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidibe, Moussa; Dieppois, Bastien; Mahé, Gil; Paturel, Jean-Emmanuel; Rouché, Nathalie; Amoussou, Ernest; Anifowose, Babatunde; Lawler, Damian

2017-04-01

Unprecedented drought episodes that struck western and central Africa between the late 1960s and 1980s. This triggered many studies investigating rainfall variability and its impacts on food production systems. However, most studies were focused at the catchment scale. In this study, we examine how rainfall variability has impacted on river flow at the subcontinental scale between 1950 and 2010, as well as the key large-scale controls on this relationship. For the first time, we establish a complete, gap-filled, monthly streamflow data set, which extends from 1950 to 2010, over the western and central African region. To achieve this, we used linear regression modelling across and between 600 flow gauging stations (see initial database information at http://www.hydrosciences.fr/sierem/index_en.htm). Streamflow trend and variability are then seasonally assessed at this subcontinental scale and compared to those observed in three different rainfall data sets (i.e. CRU TS3.24, GPCC V7, IRD-HSM). Long-term trends and variability in streamflow are mainly consistent with trends in rainfall. However, these relationships may have been moderated by: i) changes in land use; and ii) contributions from groundwater resources. In particular, we note that the recent post 1990s partial recovery in Sahel rainfall could have, at least partially, positively impacted river flows (e.g. the Senegal and Niger rivers). Using multi-temporal trend and continuous wavelet analysis, the time-evolution of western and central African river flows are analysed, and are all characterized by very strong decadal fluctuations, which can be interpreted as modulations in the baseflow. These decadal fluctuations, which are also significantly detected in rainfall, are likely related to large-scale sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns, such as the tropical Atlantic SST variability, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and/or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Furthermore, hitherto-poorly understood hydroclimatic processes related to these teleconnections at decadal timescales will be examined in this study. Influences of the catchment properties (e.g. size, shape, vegetation and landuse cover, soil type, ground-water level, direction of stream flow across climate zones) on these decadal fluctuations in river flows will also be assessed. This study therefore aims to improve the ability of current regional and global climate models to simulate such ranges of variability, to significantly improve regional hydroclimate understanding, as a means for improving the development of future scenarios for water resources in western and central Africa.

Does the Atmosphere Precess?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hester, R. E., Jr.

2015-12-01

The study considers a north-south pair of mid-latitude rings of atmospheric mass, symmetric with respect to the equator, and rotating with respect to the distant stars. The mass and angular velocity are assigned similar to the annual and zonal mean upper level westerlies. Their relatively rapid rotation is assumed to allow a rigid body approximation on long time and space scales. The rings are constrained to move as if rigidly connected to a common axis of rotation. The pair thus constitutes a symmetric top with a fixed pivot point at the center of mass. Analysis of the dynamics follows the classical mechanics approach used for precession of the equinoxes. The theoretical rate of precession for this highly idealized system yields a period on the order of decades. The predicted dynamics appears consistent with three prior studies of observational data: latitudinal movements of atmospheric circulation above far Southern Australia, latitudinal movements of ocean circulation in the Kuroshio Extension, and changes in global Atmospheric Angular Momentum before and after 1976. Each of these observational records indicates correlation with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The theoretical dynamics in combination with the observations suggests the axis of rotation of the atmospheric westerlies is offset from the Earth axis by a few degrees, and further, that this axis precesses around a mean axis on a time scale of a few decades.

Decadal predictability of winter windstorm frequency in Eastern Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höschel, Ines; Grieger, Jens; Ulbrich, Uwe

2017-04-01

Winter windstorms are one of the most impact relevant extreme-weather events in Europe. This study is focussed on windstorm frequency in Eastern Europe at multi-year time scale. Individual storms are identified by using 6-hourly 10m-wind-fields. The impact-oriented tracking algorithm is based on the exceedance of the local 98 percentile of wind speed and a minimum duration of 18 hours. Here, storm frequency is the number of 1000km-footprints of identified windstorms touching the location during extended boreal winter from October to March. The temporal development of annual storm frequencies in Eastern Europe shows variations on a six to fifteen years period. Higher than normal windstorm frequency occurred end of the 1950s and in beginning of the seventies, while lower than normal frequency were around 1960 and in the forties, for example. The correlation between bandpass filtered storm frequency and North Atlantic sea surface temperature shows a significant pattern with a positive correlation in the subtropical East Atlantic and significant negative correlations in the Gulfstream region. The relationship between these multi-year variations and predictability on decadal time scales is discussed. The resulting skill of winter wind storms in the German decadal prediction system MiKlip, based on the numerical earth system model MPI-ESM, will be presented.

Trends and Natural Variability of Spring Onset in the Coterminous United States as Evaluated by a New Gridded Dataset of Spring Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ault, T.; Schwartz, M. D.; Zurita-Milla, R.; Weltzin, J. F.; Betancourt, J. L.

2015-12-01

Climate change is expected to modify the timing of seasonal transitions this century, impacting wildlife migrations, ecosystem function, and agricultural activity. Tracking seasonal transitions in a consistent manner across space and through time requires indices that can be used for monitoring and managing biophysical and ecological systems during the coming decades. Here a new gridded dataset of spring indices is described and used to understand interannual, decadal, and secular trends across the coterminous US. This dataset is derived from daily interpolated meteorological data, and results are compared with historical station data to ensure the trends and variations are robust. Regional trends in the first leaf index range from -0.8 to -1.6 days per decade, while first bloom index trends are between -0.4 and -1.2 for most regions. However, these trends are modulated by interannual to multidecadal variations, which are substantial throughout the regions considered here. These findings emphasize the important role large-scale climate modes of variability play in modulating spring onset on interannual to multidecadal timescales. Finally, there is some potential for successful sub-seasonal forecasts of spring onset, as indices from most regions are significantly correlated with antecedent large-scale modes of variability.

Long term hydrographic variability near Bermuda and relation to surface forcing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joyce, T.M.

1997-11-01

This paper provides an extremely brief description of long-term hydrographic observations at Bermuda. The time series of observations near the island goes back to 1922. A secular increase of temperature of approximately 0.5 C per century in the deep water pressure range has been observed; this depth layer is the only one observed at Bermuda to have such a long-term increase. Decadal time scale fluctuations have also been identified, and are correlated to decadal variations in the Labrador Sea. The recent period of decreasing temperature at Bermuda may be a reflection of the increased cooling in the Labrador Sea inmore » recent years. 2 figs.« less

Electronic State Decomposition of Energetic Materials and Model Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-11-17

Nitromethane at 226 nm and 271 nm at both Nanosecond and Femtosecond Temporal Scales," J. Phys. Chem. A 113, 85 (2009). Y. Q. Guo, A. Bhattacharya and E...less "energetic". 8. Photodissociation Dynamics of Nitromethane at 226 and 271 nm at Both Nanosecond and Femtosecond Time Scales Photodissociation...of nitromethane has been investigated for decades both theoretically and experimentally; however, as a whole picture, the dissociation dynamics for

Non-stationarity of extreme weather events in a changing climate - an application to long-term droughts in the US Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossmann, I.

2013-12-01

Return periods of many extreme weather events are not stationary over time, given increasing risks due to global warming and multidecadal variability resulting from large scale climate patterns. This is problematic as extreme weather events and long-term climate risks such as droughts are typically conceptualized via measures such as return periods that implicitly assume non-stationarity. I briefly review these problems and present an application to the non-stationarity of droughts in the US Southwest. The US Southwest relies on annual precipitation maxima during winter and the North American Monsoon (NAM), both of which vary with large-scale climate patterns, in particular ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The latter two exhibit variability on longer (multi-decadal) time scales in addition to short-term variations. The region is also part of the subtropical belt projected to become more arid in a warming climate. The possible multidecadal impacts of the PDO on precipitation in the study region are analyzed with a focus on Arizona and New Mexico, using GPCC and CRU data since 1900. The projected impacts of the PDO on annual precipitation during the next three decades with GPCC data are similar in scale to the impacts of global warming on precipitation according to the A1B scenario and the CMIP2 multi-model means, while the combined impact of the PDO and AMO is about 19% larger. The effects according to the CRU dataset are about half as large as the projected global warming impacts. Given the magnitude of the projected impacts from both multidecadal variability and global warming, water management needs to explicitly incorporate both of these trends into long-term planning. Multi-decadal variability could be incorporated into the concept of return periods by presenting return periods as time-varying or as conditional on the respective 'phase' of relevant multidecadal patterns and on global warming. Problems in detecting the PDO signal and potential solutions are also discussed. We find that the long-term effect of the PDO can be more clearly separated from short-term variability by considering return periods of multi-year drought measures rather than return periods of simple drought measures that are more affected by short-term variations.

Can decadal climate predictions be improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kadow, C.; Illing, S.; Kröner, I.; Ulbrich, U.; Cubasch, U.

2017-12-01

Decadal predictions by Earth system models aim to capture the state and phase of the climate several years inadvance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. While short-termweather forecasts represent an initial value problem and long-term climate projections represent a boundarycondition problem, the decadal climate prediction falls in-between these two time scales. The ocean memorydue to its heat capacity holds big potential skill on the decadal scale. In recent years, more precise initializationtechniques of coupled Earth system models (incl. atmosphere and ocean) have improved decadal predictions.Ensembles are another important aspect. Applying slightly perturbed predictions results in an ensemble. Insteadof using and evaluating one prediction, but the whole ensemble or its ensemble average, improves a predictionsystem. However, climate models in general start losing the initialized signal and its predictive skill from oneforecast year to the next. Here we show that the climate prediction skill of an Earth system model can be improvedby a shift of the ocean state toward the ensemble mean of its individual members at seasonal intervals. Wefound that this procedure, called ensemble dispersion filter, results in more accurate results than the standarddecadal prediction. Global mean and regional temperature, precipitation, and winter cyclone predictions showan increased skill up to 5 years ahead. Furthermore, the novel technique outperforms predictions with largerensembles and higher resolution. Our results demonstrate how decadal climate predictions benefit from oceanensemble dispersion filtering toward the ensemble mean. This study is part of MiKlip (fona-miklip.de) - a major project on decadal climate prediction in Germany.We focus on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model using the low-resolution version (MPI-ESM-LR) andMiKlip's basic initialization strategy as in 2017 published decadal climate forecast: http://www.fona-miklip.de/decadal-forecast-2017-2026/decadal-forecast-for-2017-2026/ More informations about this study in JAMES:DOI: 10.1002/2016MS000787

People search for meaning when they approach a new decade in chronological age

PubMed Central

Alter, Adam L.; Hershfield, Hal E.

2014-01-01

Although humans measure time using a continuous scale, certain numerical ages inspire greater self-reflection than others. Six studies show that adults undertake a search for existential meaning when they approach a new decade in age (e.g., at ages 29, 39, 49, etc.) or imagine entering a new epoch, which leads them to behave in ways that suggest an ongoing or failed search for meaning (e.g., by exercising more vigorously, seeking extramarital affairs, or choosing to end their lives). PMID:25404347

Stars in Alignment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sailor, Wayne S.; McCart, Amy B.

2014-01-01

After decades of effort to create inclusive education, the authors assert that the time for full inclusion to manifest at scale may finally be at hand. This article first briefly considers the background and history of the inclusive education movement. The authors then reframe the discourse by defining inclusion through structures and…

Allan deviation analysis of financial return series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández-Pérez, R.

2012-05-01

We perform a scaling analysis for the return series of different financial assets applying the Allan deviation (ADEV), which is used in the time and frequency metrology to characterize quantitatively the stability of frequency standards since it has demonstrated to be a robust quantity to analyze fluctuations of non-stationary time series for different observation intervals. The data used are opening price daily series for assets from different markets during a time span of around ten years. We found that the ADEV results for the return series at short scales resemble those expected for an uncorrelated series, consistent with the efficient market hypothesis. On the other hand, the ADEV results for absolute return series for short scales (first one or two decades) decrease following approximately a scaling relation up to a point that is different for almost each asset, after which the ADEV deviates from scaling, which suggests that the presence of clustering, long-range dependence and non-stationarity signatures in the series drive the results for large observation intervals.

Ocean time-series near Bermuda: Hydrostation S and the US JGOFS Bermuda Atlantic time-series study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Michaels, Anthony F.; Knap, Anthony H.

1992-01-01

Bermuda is the site of two ocean time-series programs. At Hydrostation S, the ongoing biweekly profiles of temperature, salinity and oxygen now span 37 years. This is one of the longest open-ocean time-series data sets and provides a view of decadal scale variability in ocean processes. In 1988, the U.S. JGOFS Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study began a wide range of measurements at a frequency of 14-18 cruises each year to understand temporal variability in ocean biogeochemistry. On each cruise, the data range from chemical analyses of discrete water samples to data from electronic packages of hydrographic and optics sensors. In addition, a range of biological and geochemical rate measurements are conducted that integrate over time-periods of minutes to days. This sampling strategy yields a reasonable resolution of the major seasonal patterns and of decadal scale variability. The Sargasso Sea also has a variety of episodic production events on scales of days to weeks and these are only poorly resolved. In addition, there is a substantial amount of mesoscale variability in this region and some of the perceived temporal patterns are caused by the intersection of the biweekly sampling with the natural spatial variability. In the Bermuda time-series programs, we have added a series of additional cruises to begin to assess these other sources of variation and their impacts on the interpretation of the main time-series record. However, the adequate resolution of higher frequency temporal patterns will probably require the introduction of new sampling strategies and some emerging technologies such as biogeochemical moorings and autonomous underwater vehicles.

Precipitation driven decadal scale decline and recovery of wetlands of Lake Pannon during the Tortonian

PubMed Central

Kern, Andrea K.; Harzhauser, Mathias; Soliman, Ali; Piller, Werner E.; Gross, Martin

2012-01-01

High resolution pollen and dinoflagellate analyses were performed on a continuous 98-cm-long core from Tortonian deposits of Lake Pannon in the Styrian Basin in Austria. The sample distance of 1-cm corresponds to a resolution of roughly one decade, allowing insights into environmental and climatic changes over a millennium of Late Miocene time. Shifts in lake level, surface water productivity on a decadal- to centennial-scale can be explained by variations of rainfall during the Tortonian climatic optimum. Related to negative fine scale shifts of mean annual precipitation, shoreline vegetation belts reacted in an immediate replacement of Poaceae by Cyperaceae as dominant grasses in the marshes fringing the lake. In contrast to such near-synchronous ecosystem-responses to precipitation, a delayed lake level rise of 4–6 decades is evident in the hydrological budget of Lake Pannon. This transgression, caused by a precipitation increase up to > 1200 mm/yr, resulted in a complete dieback of marshes. Simultaneously, “open-water” dinoflagellates, such as Impagidinium, took over in the brackish lagoon and fresh water dinoflagellates disappeared. As soon as the rainfall switched back to moderate levels of ~ 1100–1200 mm/yr, the rise of the lake level slowed down, the marsh plants could keep up again and the former vegetation belts became re-established. Thus, mean annual precipitation, more than temperature, was the main driving force for high-frequency fluctuations in the Tortonian wetlands and surface water conditions of Lake Pannon. Such high resolution studies focusing on Tortonian decadal to centennial climate change will be crucial to test climate models which try to compare the Tortonian models with predictions for future climate change. PMID:23576820

Influences of roughness on the inertial mechanism of turbulent boundary-layer scale separation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebner, Rachel

Measurements and scaling analyses are conducted to clarify the combined effects of roughness and Reynolds number on momentum transport in the rough-wall zero pressure gradient turbulent boundary layer. A series of multi-sensor hot-wire experiments are presented that cover nearly a decade in Reynolds number and nearly three decades in the inner-normalized sand grain roughness. This dissertation utilizes the difference between two velocity-vorticity correlations to represent the turbulent inertia term in the statement of the mean dynamics for turbulent boundary layer flow. Analyses focus on the first term on the right hand side of the equation, because it is physically affiliated with change-of-scale effects (Tennekes and Lumley, 1972). Similarity analysis, streamwise correlations, and spectral methods are performed to elucidate the scaling behaviors of the turbulent inertia term relative to the mean dynamics. The present results reveal complex behaviors in the long-time statistics of the velocity-vorticity correlation that exhibit both Reynolds number and roughness dependencies. The results broadly support the combined roughness-Reynolds number description provided by Mehdi et al, (2013).

An absolutely dated high-resolution stalagmite record from Lianhua Cave in central China: Climate forcing and comparison with Wanxiang Cave and Dongge Cave records over the past 2000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hong-Chun; Yin, Jian-Jun; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Mii, Horng-Sheng; Li, Ting-Yong

2015-04-01

A 33-cm long aragonite stalagmite (LHD-1) from Lianhua Cave has been dated by MC-ICPMS 230Th/U method on 41 horizons. Very high U contents (1~6ppm) and low Th contents yield excellent 230Th/U dates which provide reliable chronology of the stalagmite on sub-decadal time scale over the past 3350 years. A total of 1716 samples have been measured for δ18O and δ13C, spanning annual resolution over the past 1820 years. The stalagmite δ18O is not only influenced by the 'amount effect', but also affected by the moisture source. Enhanced the tropical monsoon trough under strong EASM brings higher spring quarter rainfall with isotopically light monsoonal moisture in the cave site, resulting in lighter stalagmite δ18O. On decadal or longer time scales, increased solar activity produces warmer condition and stronger summer monsoon which lead to wet climates. On interannual-to-decadal scales, the Walker Circulation under El Niño conditions during cold periods will shift toward the central Pacific and result in weakening of EASM. Under such a circumstance, dry climates will be prevailed in the study area. Based on the δ18O and δ13C records, we have deciphered climatic and vegetation changes of the study area in decadal scales. The highly precise dated LHD-1 record has been compared with previous published Wanxiang Cave and Dongge Cave records. Although some similarities can be found, there are major discrepancies among the three well-dated records, especially during AD 500-700 and AD 1300-1600. In additional, the major weak monsoon periods defined in the Wanxiang Cave record during late Tang Dynasty, late Yuan Dynasty and late Ming Dynasty are not supported by the LHD-1 record. The heaviest δ18O peaks (more than five continuous heavy values) over the past 2000 years appeared around AD 1990-2003, 1657-1662, 1220-1228, 663-669, 363-370, and 1082-1090 (in the order of heavy to light). None of these periods occurred Chinese dynasty collapse.

Interannual, solar cycle, and trend terms in middle atmospheric temperature time series from HALOE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remsberg, E. E.; Deaver, L. E.

2005-03-01

Temperature versus pressure or T(p) time series from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) have been generated and analyzed for the period of 1991-2004 and for the mesosphere and upper stratosphere for latitude zones from 40N to 40S. Multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques were used for the analysis of the seasonal and the significant interannual and solar cycle (or decadal-scale) terms. An 11-yr solar cycle (SC) term of amplitude 0.5 to 1.7 K was found for the middle to upper mesosphere; its phase was determined by a Fourier fit to the de-seasonalized residual. This SC term is largest and has a lag of several years for northern hemisphere middle latitudes of the middle mesosphere, perhaps due to the interfering effects of wintertime wave dissipation. The SC response from the MLR models is weaker but essentially in-phase at low latitudes and in the southern hemisphere. An in-phase SC response term is also significant near the tropical stratopause with an amplitude of about 0.4 to 0.6 K, which is somewhat less than predicted from models. Both sub-biennial (688-dy) and QBO (800-dy) terms are resolved for the mid to upper stratosphere along with a decadal-scale term that is presumed to have a 13.5-yr period due to their predicted modulation. This decadal-scale term is out-of-phase with the SC during 1991-2004. However, the true nature and source of this term is still uncertain, especially at 5 hPa. Significant linear cooling trends ranging from -0.3 K to -1.1 K per decade were found in the tropical upper stratosphere and subtropical mesosphere. Trends have not emerged so far for the tropical mesosphere, so it is concluded that the cooling rates that have been resolved for the subtropics are likely upper limits. As HALOE-like measurements continue and their time series lengthen, it is anticipated that better accuracy can be achieved for these interannual, SC, and trend terms.

Prediction Activities at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried

2010-01-01

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) is a core NASA resource for the development and use of satellite observations through the integrating tools of models and assimilation systems. Global ocean, atmosphere and land surface models are developed as components of assimilation and forecast systems that are used for addressing the weather and climate research questions identified in NASA's science mission. In fact, the GMAO is actively engaged in addressing one of NASA's science mission s key questions concerning how well transient climate variations can be understood and predicted. At weather time scales the GMAO is developing ultra-high resolution global climate models capable of resolving high impact weather systems such as hurricanes. The ability to resolve the detailed characteristics of weather systems within a global framework greatly facilitates addressing fundamental questions concerning the link between weather and climate variability. At sub-seasonal time scales, the GMAO is engaged in research and development to improve the use of land information (especially soil moisture), and in the improved representation and initialization of various sub-seasonal atmospheric variability (such as the MJO) that evolves on time scales longer than weather and involves exchanges with both the land and ocean The GMAO has a long history of development for advancing the seasonal-to-interannual (S-I) prediction problem using an older version of the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). This includes the development of an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to facilitate the multivariate assimilation of ocean surface altimetry, and an EnKF developed for the highly inhomogeneous nature of the errors in land surface models, as well as the multivariate assimilation needed to take advantage of surface soil moisture and snow observations. The importance of decadal variability, especially that associated with long-term droughts is well recognized by the climate community. An improved understanding of the nature of decadal variability and its predictability has important implications for efforts to assess the impacts of global change in the coming decades. In fact, the GMAO has taken on the challenge of carrying out experimental decadal predictions in support of the IPCC AR5 effort.

Antarctic Ice Mass Balance from GRACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boening, C.; Firing, Y. L.; Wiese, D. N.; Watkins, M. M.; Schlegel, N.; Larour, E. Y.

2014-12-01

The Antarctic ice mass balance and rates of change of ice mass over the past decade are analyzed based on observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites, in the form of JPL RL05M mascon solutions. Surface mass balance (SMB) fluxes from ERA-Interim and other atmospheric reanalyses successfully account for the seasonal GRACE-measured mass variability, and explain 70-80% of the continent-wide mass variance at interannual time scales. Trends in the residual (GRACE mass - SMB accumulation) mass time series in different Antarctic drainage basins are consistent with time-mean ice discharge rates based on radar-derived ice velocities and thicknesses. GRACE also resolves accelerations in regional ice mass change rates, including increasing rates of mass gain in East Antarctica and accelerating ice mass loss in West Antarctica. The observed East Antarctic mass gain is only partially explained by anomalously large SMB events in the second half of the record, potentially implying that ice discharge rates are also decreasing in this region. Most of the increasing mass loss rate in West Antarctica, meanwhile, is explained by decreasing SMB (principally precipitation) over this time period, part of the characteristic decadal variability in regional SMB. The residual acceleration of 2+/-1 Gt/yr, which is concentrated in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) basins, represents the contribution from increasing ice discharge rates. An Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) run with constant ocean forcing and stationary grounding lines both underpredicts the largest trends in the ASE and produces negligible acceleration or interannual variability in discharge, highlighting the potential importance of ocean forcing for setting ice discharge rates at interannual to decadal time scales.

An integrated investigation of lake storage and water level changes in the Paiku Co basin, central Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Yanbin; Yao, Tandong; Yang, Kun; Bird, Broxton W.; Tian, Lide; Zhang, Xiaowen; Wang, Weicai; Xiang, Yang; Dai, Yufeng; Lazhu; Zhou, Jing; Wang, Lei

2018-07-01

Since the late 1990s, lakes in the southern Tibetan Plateau (TP) have shrunk considerably, which contrasts with the rapid expansion of lakes in the interior TP. Although these spatial trends have been well documented, the underlying hydroclimatic mechanisms are not well understood. Since 2013, we have carried out comprehensive water budget observations at Paiku Co, an alpine lake in the central Himalayas. In this study, we investigate water storage and lake level changes on seasonal to decadal time scales based on extensive in-situ measurements and satellite observations. Bathymetric surveys show that Paiku Co has a mean and maximum water depth of 41.1 m and 72.8 m, respectively, and its water storage was estimated to be 109.3 × 108 m3 in June 2016. On seasonal scale between 2013 and 2017, Paiku Co's lake level decreased slowly between January and May, increased considerably between June and September, and then decreased rapidly between October and January. On decadal time scale, Paiku Co's lake level decreased by 3.7 ± 0.3 m and water storage reduced by (10.2 ± 0.8) × 108 m3 between 1972 and 2015, accounting for 8.5% of the total water storage in 1972. This change is consistent with a trend towards drier conditions in the Himalaya region during the recent decades. In contrast, glacial lakes within Paiku Co's basin expanded rapidly, indicating that, unlike Paiku Co, glacial meltwater was sufficient to compensate the effect of the reduced precipitation.

Shifting gears: Diversification, intensification, and effort increases in small-scale fisheries (1950-2010)

PubMed Central

Gergel, Sarah E.; Vincent, Amanda C. J.

2018-01-01

Locally sustainable resource extraction activities, at times, transform into ecologically detrimental enterprises. Understanding such transitions is a primary challenge for conservation and management of many ecosystems. In marine systems, over-exploitation of small-scale fisheries creates problems such as reduced biodiversity and lower catches. However, long-term documentation of how governance and associated changes in fishing gears may have contributed to such declines is often lacking. Using fisher interviews, we characterized fishing gear dynamics over 60 years (1950–2010) in a coral reef ecosystem in the Philippines subject to changing fishing regulations. In aggregate fishers greatly diversified their use of fishing gears. However, most individual fishers used one or two gears at a time (mean number of fishing gears < 2 in all years). Individual fishing effort (days per year) was fairly steady over the study period, but cumulative fishing effort by all fishers increased 240%. In particular, we document large increases in total effort by fishers using nets and diving. Other fishing gears experienced less pronounced changes in total effort over time. Fishing intensified through escalating use of non-selective, active, and destructive fishing gears. We also found that policies promoting higher production over sustainability influenced the use of fishing gears, with changes in gear use persisting decades after those same policies were stopped. Our quantitative evidence shows dynamic changes in fishing gear use over time and indicates that gears used in contemporary small-scale fisheries impact oceans more than those used in earlier decades. PMID:29538370

The Need for a Harmonized Repository for Next-Generation Human Activity Data

EPA Science Inventory

Multi-tiered human time-activity-location data can inform many efforts to describe human exposures to air pollutants and other chemicals on a range of temporal and spatial scales. In the last decade, EPA's Consolidated Human Activity Database (CHAD) has served as a harmonized rep...

Data related uncertainty in near-surface vulnerability assessments for agrochemicals in the San Joaquin Valley

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Precious groundwater resources across the USA have been contaminated due to decades-long nonpoint-source applications of agricultural chemicals. Assessing the impact of past, ongoing, and future chemical applications for large-scale agriculture operations is timely for designing best-management prac...

Stellar-mass black holes and ultraluminous x-ray sources.

PubMed

Fender, Rob; Belloni, Tomaso

2012-08-03

We review the likely population, observational properties, and broad implications of stellar-mass black holes and ultraluminous x-ray sources. We focus on the clear empirical rules connecting accretion and outflow that have been established for stellar-mass black holes in binary systems in the past decade and a half. These patterns of behavior are probably the keys that will allow us to understand black hole feedback on the largest scales over cosmological time scales.

Two Centuries of Climate Variability From a Gulf of Papua Coral Confirms a Coherent, Widespread Multidecadal Signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cole, J. E.; Lough, J.; Reed, E. V.; Schrag, D. P.

2016-12-01

The Indo-Pacific warm pool is intimately involved with large-scale climate variability on seasonal to secular time scales. The lack of long instrumental observations in this region has motivated paleoclimatic analyses using diverse proxy data sources. We present here new multicentury paleoclimate records from a Gulf of Papua coral that capture past variability with a Pacific-wide signature. We have developed stable isotope, Sr/Ca, skeletal density, and luminescence data from a coral core recovered at Bramble Cay, Australia (9°S, 144°E). The geochemical records span CE 1775-1993 and are dominated by low-frequency (decade-century scale) variability that is consistent with records from other proxies in the same region, and with other coral records from far-flung sites across the southwest Pacific. Unlike in many Pacific coral records, we observe no strong trend towards warmer conditions. Although skeletal density bands are clearly visible, they show inconsistent seasonal phasing with the geochemical tracers of sea surface temperature (SST; Sr/Ca and oxygen isotope content), and skeletal density does not correlate with these tracers on longer time scales. In this coral, density banding must be controlled by a more complex mix of internal and/or external factors. Luminescent banding and reconstructed salinity provide similar histories, suggesting a common hydroclimatic signal with significant variability at periods of decades and longer. The strong low-frequency behavior in these new climate records of SST and hydroclimate, from a remote region of the Indo-Pacific, confirms an important source of internal climate variability, on a poorly documented time scale, from a region with far-reaching climatic importance.

The effect of land use intensity on soil organic carbon stocks of European croplands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dechow, Rene; Gebbert, Sören; Franko, Uwe; Kätterer, Thomas; Kolbe, Hartmut

2013-04-01

Croplands cover about one third of Europe and are assumed to be the biggest source of greenhouse gas emissions of the European biosphere with the degradation of soil organic carbon (SOC) being a major contributor of this source. Soil carbon stocks of croplands are subjected to ranges of natural and anthropogenic influences that control the release or uptake of CO2. The separation of drivers is essential for assessing recent and prospective GHG mitigation potentials by cropland management. Within the last decades the management of European croplands is characterized by an ongoing intensification. The increasing influence of the global market on farmers' decision and the establishment of industrialized farming practise in Europe had significant impact on the shift of crop rotations during the last decades. Due to the high spatial variability and the dominating fraction of slowly degradable carbon it needs at least decades to detect changes while agricultural management is characterized by short term system interventions. Long term observations representing time intervals of decades to hundreds of years are therefore essential to make reliable suggestions about the sensitivity of soil carbon turnover against external impacts because the temporal scale of these experiments corresponds to the temporal scale of soil C turnover. A data set of about 32 European long-term experiments (380 variants) was used to quantify the uncertainty of the RothC soil carbon model. The parameters of the model were adapted to represent the sensitivity of SOC on weather conditions and crop types found in the data set by applying an Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithm. Integrated in a GIS environment the modified model was used to run scenarios that vary in terms of climate conditions and crop rotations within the time period 1970-2010 on a European scale. Regionalized sensitivities of SOC on natural drivers and crop rotations will be presented.

How well do the GCMs/RCMs capture the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in the Southwestern United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Peng; Gautam, Mahesh R.; Zhu, Jianting; Yu, Zhongbo

2013-02-01

SummaryMulti-scale temporal variability of precipitation has an established relationship with floods and droughts. In this paper, we present the diagnostics on the ability of 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Bias Corrected and Downscaled (BCSD) World Climate Research Program's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) projections and 10 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that participated in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to represent multi-scale temporal variability determined from the observed station data. Four regions (Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Tucson, and Cimarron) in the Southwest United States are selected as they represent four different precipitation regions classified by clustering method. We investigate how storm properties and seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal precipitation variabilities differed between GCMs/RCMs and observed records in these regions. We find that current GCMs/RCMs tend to simulate longer storm duration and lower storm intensity compared to those from observed records. Most GCMs/RCMs fail to produce the high-intensity summer storms caused by local convective heat transport associated with the summer monsoon. Both inter-annual and decadal bands are present in the GCM/RCM-simulated precipitation time series; however, these do not line up to the patterns of large-scale ocean oscillations such as El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Our results show that the studied GCMs/RCMs can capture long-term monthly mean as the examined data is bias-corrected and downscaled, but fail to simulate the multi-scale precipitation variability including flood generating extreme events, which suggests their inadequacy for studies on floods and droughts that are strongly associated with multi-scale temporal precipitation variability.

Long-term wave measurements in a climate change perspective.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pomaro, Angela; Bertotti, Luciana; Cavaleri, Luigi; Lionello, Piero; Portilla-Yandun, Jesus

2017-04-01

At present multi-decadal time series of wave data needed for climate studies are generally provided by long term model simulations (hindcasts) covering the area of interest. Examples, among many, at different scales are wave hindcasts adopting the wind fields of the ERA-Interim reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, Reading, U.K.) at the global level and by regional re-analysis as for the Mediterranean Sea (Lionello and Sanna, 2006). Valuable as they are, these estimates are necessarily affected by the approximations involved, the more so because of the problems encountered within modelling processes in small basins using coarse resolution wind fields (Cavaleri and Bertotti, 2004). On the contrary, multi-decadal observed time series are rare. They have the evident advantage of somehow representing the real evolution of the waves, without the shortcomings associated with the limitation of models in reproducing the actual processes and the real variability within the wave fields. Obviously, observed wave time series are not exempt of problems. They represent a very local information, hence their use to describe the wave evolution at large scale is sometimes arguable and, in general, it needs the support of model simulations assessing to which extent the local value is representative of a large scale evolution. Local effects may prevent the identification of trends that are indeed present at large scale. Moreover, a regular maintenance, accurate monitoring and metadata information are crucial issues when considering the reliability of a time series for climate applications. Of course, where available, especially if for several decades, measured data are of great value for a number of reasons and can be valuable clues to delve further into the physics of the processes of interest, especially if considering that waves, as an integrated product of the local climate, if available in an area sensitive to even limited changes of the large scale pattern, can provide related compact and meaningful information. In addition, the availability for the area of interest of a 20-year long dataset of directional spectra (in frequency and direction) offers an independent, but theoretically corresponding and significantly long dataset, allowing to penetrate the wave problem through different perspectives. In particular, we investigate the contribution of the individual wave systems that modulate the variability of waves in the Adriatic Sea. A characterization of wave conditions based on wave spectra in fact brings out a more detailed description of the different wave regimes, their associated meteorological conditions and their variation in time and geographical space.

Multi-Decadal Coastal Behavioural States From A Fusion Of Geohistorical Conceptual Modelling With 2-D Morphodynamic Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodwin, I. D.; Mortlock, T.

2016-02-01

Geohistorical archives of shoreline and foredune planform geometry provides a unique evidence-based record of the time integral response to coupled directional wave climate and sediment supply variability on annual to multi-decadal time scales. We develop conceptual shoreline modelling from the geohistorical shoreline archive using a novel combination of methods, including: LIDAR DEM and field mapping of coastal geology; a decadal-scale climate reconstruction of sea-level pressure, marine windfields, and paleo-storm synoptic type and frequency, and historical bathymetry. The conceptual modelling allows for the discrimination of directional wave climate shifts and the relative contributions of cross-shore and along-shore sand supply rates at multi-decadal resolution. We present regional examples from south-eastern Australia over a large latitudinal gradient from subtropical Queensland (S 25°) to mid-latitude Bass Strait (S 40°) that illustrate the morphodynamic evolution and reorganization to wave climate change. We then use the conceptual modeling to inform a two-dimensional coupled spectral wave-hydrodynamic-morphodynamic model to investigate the shoreface response to paleo-directional wind and wave climates. Unlike one-line shoreline modelling, this fully dynamical approach allows for the investigation of cumulative and spatial bathymetric change due to wave-induced currents, as well as proxy-shoreline change. The fusion of the two modeling approaches allows for: (i) the identification of the natural range of coastal planform geometries in response to wave climate shifts; and, (ii) the decomposition of the multidecadal coastal change into the cross-shore and along-shore sand supply drivers, according to the best-matching planforms.

Getting It Right Matters: Climate Spectra and Their Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Privalsky, Victor; Yushkov, Vladislav

2018-06-01

In many recent publications, climate spectra estimated with different methods from observed, GCM-simulated, and reconstructed time series contain many peaks at time scales from a few years to many decades and even centuries. However, respective spectral estimates obtained with the autoregressive (AR) and multitapering (MTM) methods showed that spectra of climate time series are smooth and contain no evidence of periodic or quasi-periodic behavior. Four order selection criteria for the autoregressive models were studied and proven sufficiently reliable for 25 time series of climate observations at individual locations or spatially averaged at local-to-global scales. As time series of climate observations are short, an alternative reliable nonparametric approach is Thomson's MTM. These results agree with both the earlier climate spectral analyses and the Markovian stochastic model of climate.

Changes toward earlier streamflow timing across western North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, I.T.; Cayan, D.R.; Dettinger, M.D.

2005-01-01

The highly variable timing of streamflow in snowmelt-dominated basins across western North America is an important consequence, and indicator, of climate fluctuations. Changes in the timing of snowmelt-derived streamflow from 1948 to 2002 were investigated in a network of 302 western North America gauges by examining the center of mass for flow, spring pulse onset dates, and seasonal fractional flows through trend and principal component analyses. Statistical analysis of the streamflow timing measures with Pacific climate indicators identified local and key large-scale processes that govern the regionally coherent parts of the changes and their relative importance. Widespread and regionally coherent trends toward earlier onsets of springtime snowmelt and streamflow have taken place across most of western North America, affecting an area that is much larger than previously recognized. These timing changes have resulted in increasing fractions of annual flow occurring earlier in the water year by 1-4 weeks. The immediate (or proximal) forcings for the spatially coherent parts of the year-to-year fluctuations and longer-term trends of streamflow timing have been higher winter and spring temperatures. Although these temperature changes are partly controlled by the decadal-scale Pacific climate mode [Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)], a separate and significant part of the variance is associated with a springtime warming trend that spans the PDO phases. ?? 2005 American Meteorological Society.

Inner core rotation from event-pair analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Xiaodong; Poupinet, Georges

2007-09-01

The last decade has witnessed an animated debate on whether the inner core rotation is a fact or an artifact. Here we examine the temporal change of inner core waves using a technique that compares differential travel times at the same station but between two events. The method does not require precise knowledge of earthquake locations and earth models. The pairing of the events creates a large data set for the application of statistical tools. Using measurements from 87 events in the South Sandwich Islands recorded at College, Alaska station, we conclude the temporal change is robust. The estimates of the temporal change range from about 0.07 to 0.10 s/decade over the past 50 yr. If we used only pairs with small inter-event distances, which reduce the influence of mantle heterogeneity, the rates range from 0.084 to 0.098 s/decade, nearly identical to the rate inferred by Zhang et al. [Zhang, J., Song, X.D., Li, Y.C., Richards, P.G., Sun, X.L., Waldhauser, F., Inner core differential motion confirmed by earthquake waveform doublets, Science 309 (5739) (2005) 1357-1360.] from waveform doublets. The rate of the DF change seems to change with time, which may be explained by lateral variation of the inner core structure or the change in rotation rate on decadal time scale.

An 1800-yr record of decadal-scale hydroclimatic variability in the upper Arkansas River basin from bristlecone pine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodhouse, C.A.; Pederson, G.T.; Gray, S.T.

2011-01-01

Bristlecone pine trees are exceptionally long-lived, and with the incorporation of remnant material have been used to construct multi-millennial length ring-width chronologies. These chronologies can provide valuable information about past temperature and moisture variability. In this study, we outline a method to build a moisture-sensitive bristlecone chronology and assess the robustness and consistency of this sensitivity over the past 1200. yr using new reconstructions of Arkansas River flow (AD 1275-2002 and 1577-2002) and the summer Palmer Drought Sensitivity Index. The chronology, a composite built from parts of three collections in the central Rocky Mountains, is a proxy for decadal-scale moisture variability for the past 18 centuries. Since the sample size is small in some portions of the time series, the chronology should be considered preliminary; the timing and duration of drought events are likely the most robust characteristics. This chronology suggests that the region experienced increased aridity during the medieval period, as did much of western North America, but that the timing and duration of drought episodes within this period were somewhat different from those in other western locations, such as the upper Colorado River basin. ?? 2010 University of Washington.

Stratospheric Temperature Trends Observed by TIMED/SABER

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xian, T.; Tan, R.

2017-12-01

Trends in the stratospheric temperature are studied based on the temperature profile observation from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). The spatially trends are evaluated in different time scales ranging from decadal to monthly resolved. The results indicate a signature of BDC acceleration. There are strong warming trends (up to 9 K/decade) in the middle to upper stratosphere in the high latitude spring, summer, and autumn seasons, accompanied by strong cooling trends in the lower stratosphere. Besides, strong warming trends occurs through the whole stratosphere over the Southern Hemisphere, which confirms Antarctic ozone layer healing since 2000. In addition, the results demonstrate a significant warming trends in the middle of tropical stratosphere, which becomes strongest during June-July-August.

A novel way to detect correlations on multi-time scales, with temporal evolution and for multi-variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Naiming; Xoplaki, Elena; Zhu, Congwen; Luterbacher, Juerg

2016-06-01

In this paper, two new methods, Temporal evolution of Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (TDCCA) and Temporal evolution of Detrended Partial-Cross-Correlation Analysis (TDPCCA), are proposed by generalizing DCCA and DPCCA. Applying TDCCA/TDPCCA, it is possible to study correlations on multi-time scales and over different periods. To illustrate their properties, we used two climatological examples: i) Global Sea Level (GSL) versus North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); and ii) Summer Rainfall over Yangtze River (SRYR) versus previous winter Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). We find significant correlations between GSL and NAO on time scales of 60 to 140 years, but the correlations are non-significant between 1865-1875. As for SRYR and PDO, significant correlations are found on time scales of 30 to 35 years, but the correlations are more pronounced during the recent 30 years. By combining TDCCA/TDPCCA and DCCA/DPCCA, we proposed a new correlation-detection system, which compared to traditional methods, can objectively show how two time series are related (on which time scale, during which time period). These are important not only for diagnosis of complex system, but also for better designs of prediction models. Therefore, the new methods offer new opportunities for applications in natural sciences, such as ecology, economy, sociology and other research fields.

Warming of the Global Ocean: Spatial Structure and Water-Mass Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hakkinen, Sirpa; Rhines, Peter B.; Worthen, Denise L.

2016-01-01

This study investigates the multidecadal warming and interannual-to-decadal heat content changes in the upper ocean (0-700 m), focusing on vertical and horizontal patterns of variability. These results support a nearly monotonic warming over much of the World Ocean, with a shift toward Southern Hemisphere warming during the well-observed past decade. This is based on objectively analyzed gridded observational datasets and on a modeled state estimate. Besides the surface warming, a warming climate also has a subsurface effect manifesting as a strong deepening of the midthermocline isopycnals, which can be diagnosed directly from hydrographic data. This deepening appears to be a result of heat entering via subduction and spreading laterally from the high-latitude ventilation regions of subtropical mode waters. The basin-average multidecadal warming mainly expands the subtropical mode water volume, with weak changes in the temperature-salinity (u-S) relationship (known as ''spice'' variability). However, the spice contribution to the heat content can be locally large, for example in Southern Hemisphere. Multidecadal isopycnal sinking has been strongest over the southern basins and weaker elsewhere with the exception of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current/subtropical recirculation gyre. At interannual to decadal time scales, wind-driven sinking and shoaling of density surfaces still dominate ocean heat content changes, while the contribution from temperature changes along density surfaces tends to decrease as time scales shorten.

Determination of channel change for selected streams, Maricopa County, Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Capesius, Joseph P.; Lehman, Ted W.

2002-01-01

In Maricopa County, Arizona, 10 sites on seven streams were studied to determine the lateral and vertical change of the channel. Channel change was studied over time scales ranging from individual floods to decades using cross-section surveys, discharge measurements, changes in the point of zero flow, and repeat photography. All of the channels showed some change in cross-section area or hydraulic radius over the time scales studied, but the direction and mag-nitude of change varied considerably from one flow, or series of flows, to another. The documentation of cross-section geometry for streams in Maricopa County for long-term monitoring was begun in this study.

Climate Information Responding to User Needs (CIRUN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busalacchi, A. J.

2009-05-01

For the past several decades many different US agencies have been involved in collecting Earth observations, e.g., NASA, NOAA, DoD, USGS, USDA. More recently, the US has led the international effort to design a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). Yet, there has been little substantive progress at the synthesis and integration of the various research and operational, space-based and in situ, observations. Similarly, access to such a range of observations across the atmosphere, ocean, and land surface remains fragmented. With respect to prediction of the Earth System, the US has not developed a comprehensive strategy. For climate, the US (e.g., NOAA, NASA, DoE) has taken a two-track strategy. At the more immediate time scale, coupled ocean-atmosphere models of the physical climate system have built upon the tradition of daily numerical weather prediction in order to extend the forecast window to seasonal to interannual times scales. At the century time scale, the nascent development of Earth System models, combining components of the physical climate system with biogeochemical cycles, are being used to provide future climate change projections in response to anticipated greenhouse gas forcings. Between these to two approaches to prediction lies a key deficiency of interest to decision makers, especially as it pertains to adaptation, i.e., deterministic prediction of the Earth System at time scales from days to decades with spatial scales from global to regional. One of many obstacles to be overcome is the design of present day observation and prediction products based on user needs. To date, most of such products have evolved from the technology and research "push" rather than the user or stakeholder "pull". In the future as planning proceeds for a national climate service, emphasis must be given to a more coordinated approach in which stakeholders' needs help design future Earth System observational and prediction products, and similarly, such products need to be tailored to provide decision support.

Identification of unknown apple cultivars demonstrates the impact of local breeding program on cultivar diversity

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Apple trees, either abandoned or cared for, are common on the North American landscape. These trees can live for decades, and therefore represent a record of large- and small-scale agricultural practices through time. Here, we assessed the genetic diversity and identity of 330 unknown apple trees in...

Divergence of species responses to climate change

Treesearch

Songlin Fei; Johanna M. Desprez; Kevin M. Potter; Insu Jo; Jonathan A. Knott; Christopher M. Oswalt

2017-01-01

Climate change can have profound impacts on biodiversity and the sustainability of many ecosystems. Various studies have investigated the impacts of climate change, but large-scale, trait-specific impactsare less understood.Weanalyze abundance data over time for 86 tree species/groups across the eastern United States spanning the last three decades. We show that more...

Triton Blushes: A Clue to Global Warming?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buratti, B. J.; Hicks, M. D.; Newburn, R. L., Jr.

1998-01-01

The large Neptunian satellite Triton is a geologically active body that apparently undergoes complex seasonal changes in its 165 year journey around the sun. Because it is the vehicle for the seasonal transport of volatiles, Triton's atmosphere is expected to undergo large changes in temperature and pressure on a time scale of decades.

Organizational Agility and Complex Enterprise System Innovations: A Mixed Methods Study of the Effects of Enterprise Systems on Organizational Agility

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kharabe, Amol T.

2012-01-01

Over the last two decades, firms have operated in "increasingly" accelerated "high-velocity" dynamic markets, which require them to become "agile." During the same time frame, firms have increasingly deployed complex enterprise systems--large-scale packaged software "innovations" that integrate and automate…

Analyzing Whitebark Pine Distribution in the Northern Rocky Mountains in Support of Grizzly Bear Recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrence, R.; Landenburger, L.; Jewett, J.

2007-12-01

Whitebark pine seeds have long been identified as the most significant vegetative food source for grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) and, hence, a crucial element of suitable grizzly bear habitat. The overall health and status of whitebark pine in the GYE is currently threatened by mountain pine beetle infestations and the spread of whitepine blister rust. Whitebark pine distribution (presence/absence) was mapped for the GYE using Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) imagery and topographic data as part of a long-term inter-agency monitoring program. Logistic regression was compared with classification tree analysis (CTA) with and without boosting. Overall comparative classification accuracies for the central portion of the GYE covering three ETM+ images along a single path ranged from 91.6% using logistic regression to 95.8% with See5's CTA algorithm with the maximum 99 boosts. The analysis is being extended to the entire northern Rocky Mountain Ecosystem and extended over decadal time scales. The analysis is being extended to the entire northern Rocky Mountain Ecosystem and extended over decadal time scales.

Decadal sea level variability in the East China Sea linked to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Jae-Hong; Song, Y. Tony

2017-07-01

In view of coastal community's need for adapting to sea level rise (SLR), understanding and predicting regional variability on decadal to longer time scales still remain a challenging issue in SLR research. Here, we have examined the low-frequency sea level signals in the East China Sea (ECS) from the 50-year hindcast of a non-Boussinesq ocean model in comparison with data sets from altimeters, tide-gauges, and steric sea level produced by in-situ profiles. It is shown that the mean sea levels in the ECS represent significant decadal fluctuations over the past 50 years, with a multi-decadal trend shift since the mid-1980s compared to the preceding 30 years. The decadal fluctuations in sea level are more closely linked to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) rather than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which reflects the multi-decadal trend shift. A composite analysis indicates that wind patterns associated with the NPGO is shown to control the decadal variability of the western subtropical North Pacific. A positive NPGO corresponds to cyclonic wind stress curl anomaly in the western subtropical regions that results in a higher sea level in the ECS, particularly along the continental shelf, and lower sea levels off the ECS. The reverse occurs in years of negative NPGO.

The progress on time & frequency during the past 5 decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zheng-Ming

2002-06-01

The number and variety of applications using precise timing are astounding and increasing along with the new technology in communication, computer science, space science as well as in other fields. The world has evolved into the information age, and precise timing is at the heart of managing the flow of that information, which prompts the progress on precise timing itself rapidly. The development of time scales, UT1 determination, frequency standards, time transfer and the time dissemination for the past half century in the world and in China are described in this paper. The expectation in this field is discussed.

Prospects for Improved Forecasts of Weather and Short-Term Climate Variability on Subseasonal (2-Week to 2-Month) Times Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Dole, Randall; vandenDool, Huug; Suarez, Max; Waliser, Duane

2002-01-01

This workshop, held in April 2002, brought together various Earth Sciences experts to focus on the subseasonal prediction problem. While substantial advances have occurred over the last few decades in both weather and seasonal prediction, progress in improving predictions on these intermediate time scales (time scales ranging from about two weeks to two months) has been slow. The goals of the workshop were to get an assessment of the "state of the art" in predictive skill on these time scales, to determine the potential sources of "untapped" predictive skill, and to make recommendations for a course of action that will accelerate progress in this area. One of the key conclusions of the workshop was that there is compelling evidence for predictability at forecast lead times substantially longer than two weeks. Tropical diabatic heating and soil wetness were singled out as particularly important processes affecting predictability on these time scales. Predictability was also linked to various low-frequency atmospheric "phenomena" such as the annular modes in high latitudes (including their connections to the stratosphere), the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern, and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The latter, in particular, was highlighted as a key source of untapped predictability in the tropics and subtropics, including the Asian and Australian monsoon regions.

Radio variability in the Phoenix Deep Survey at 1.4 GHz

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hancock, P. J.; Drury, J. A.; Bell, M. E.; Murphy, T.; Gaensler, B. M.

2016-09-01

We use archival data from the Phoenix Deep Survey to investigate the variable radio source population above 1 mJy beam-1 at 1.4 GHz. Given the similarity of this survey to other such surveys we take the opportunity to investigate the conflicting results which have appeared in the literature. Two previous surveys for variability conducted with the Very Large Array (VLA) achieved a sensitivity of 1 mJy beam-1. However, one survey found an areal density of radio variables on time-scales of decades that is a factor of ˜4 times greater than a second survey which was conducted on time-scales of less than a few years. In the Phoenix deep field we measure the density of variable radio sources to be ρ = 0.98 deg-2 on time-scales of 6 months to 8 yr. We make use of Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer infrared cross-ids, and identify all variable sources as an active galactic nucleus of some description. We suggest that the discrepancy between previous VLA results is due to the different time-scales probed by each of the surveys, and that radio variability at 1.4 GHz is greatest on time-scales of 2-5 yr.

Occurrence of major ozone episodes and their time-series trends over the past decade in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lai, Tzu-Ling

The purpose of this dissertation was to examine the influence of meteorology on ozone (O3) magnitudes and variations over the past decade in the New England area. The major results are summarized as follows. First, the highest O3 episodes were driven by multi-scale processes, and the regional/local scale processes controlled the magnitude and timing of the local pollution episodes. For instance, the highest episode on 14 August 2002 at Thompson Farm (TF) was under a stagnant synoptic high-pressure which resulted in accumulation of pollutants in the boundary layer. Ozone mixing ratios in the 2002 episode showed continual high values (>100 ppbv) at the beginning of the episode, and reached 151 ppbv on August 14. At the same time, the mesoscale low-level-jet (LLJ) played an important role in transporting air masses from the polluted Mid-Atlantic areas to the Northeast. Local land-sea-breeze circulations also added to the impact on this episode. Another highest O 3 event on 22 July 2004 at Castle Springs (CS) was driven by two mechanisms, stratospheric intrusion and the Appalachian lee trough (APLT), which was not found during other O3 episodes at the site in the decade long data record. Second, decadal O3 trends revealed that daytime O 3 mixing ratios increased by ˜0.9 ppbv per year in spring and by ˜0.8 ppbv per year in winter, while it decreased by ˜0.2 ppbv per year in summer. The increasing O3 values in spring and winter coincided with warmer temperatures which increased +2.8 (°F/decade) in spring and +0.6 (°F/decade) in winter in New Hampshire (NH). Furthermore, trends in low-, medium-, and the daily maximum of O3 were increasing in both spring and winter with rates between 0.3 to 1.1 ppb per year. Summertime O3 trends either decreased or did not have significant changes. The decreasing summer O3 trends coincided with a weakening of the Bermuda High. Overall, average O3 exhibited higher O3 mixing ratios in spring than in other seasons. However, the highest episodes occurred in summer. Average diurnal patterns indicated that O3 was reduced to its lowest mixing ratios in summer during nighttime, with the strongest O 3 depletion in September.

Interactions Between the Thermohaline Circulation and Tropical Atlantic SST in a Coupled General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, Ron; Jiang, Xing-Jian; Travis, Larry (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Tropical Atlantic SST shows a (statistically well-defined) decadal time scale in a 104-year simulation of unforced variability by a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The SST anomalies superficially resemble observed Tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), and are associated with changes in the atmospheric circulation. Brazilian rainfall is modulated with a decadal time scale, along with the strength of the Atlantic trade winds, which are associated with variations in evaporation and the net surface heat flux. However, in contrast to observed tropical Atlantic variability, the trade winds damp the associated anomalies in ocean temperature, indicating a negative feedback. Tropical SST anomalies in the CGCM, though opposed by the surface heat flux, are advected in from the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. These variations modulate the strength of the thermohaline circulation (THC): warm, salty anomalies at the equator sink drawing cold, fresh mid-latitude water. Upon reaching the equator, the latter inhibit vertical overturning and advection from higher latitudes, which allows warm, salty anomalies to reform, returning the cycle to its original state. Thus, the cycle results from advection of density anomalies and the effect of these anomalies upon the rate of vertical overturning and surface advection. This decadal modulation of Tropical Atlantic SST and the thermohaline circulation is correlated with ocean heat transport to the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and Norwegian Sea SST. Because of the central role of equatorial convection, we question whether this mechanism is present in the current climate, although we speculate that it may have operated in palaeo times, depending upon the stability of the tropical water column.

Progress in fast, accurate multi-scale climate simulations

DOE PAGES

Collins, W. D.; Johansen, H.; Evans, K. J.; ...

2015-06-01

We present a survey of physical and computational techniques that have the potential to contribute to the next generation of high-fidelity, multi-scale climate simulations. Examples of the climate science problems that can be investigated with more depth with these computational improvements include the capture of remote forcings of localized hydrological extreme events, an accurate representation of cloud features over a range of spatial and temporal scales, and parallel, large ensembles of simulations to more effectively explore model sensitivities and uncertainties. Numerical techniques, such as adaptive mesh refinement, implicit time integration, and separate treatment of fast physical time scales are enablingmore » improved accuracy and fidelity in simulation of dynamics and allowing more complete representations of climate features at the global scale. At the same time, partnerships with computer science teams have focused on taking advantage of evolving computer architectures such as many-core processors and GPUs. As a result, approaches which were previously considered prohibitively costly have become both more efficient and scalable. In combination, progress in these three critical areas is poised to transform climate modeling in the coming decades.« less

Simulating mesoscale coastal evolution for decadal coastal management: A new framework integrating multiple, complementary modelling approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Maanen, Barend; Nicholls, Robert J.; French, Jon R.; Barkwith, Andrew; Bonaldo, Davide; Burningham, Helene; Brad Murray, A.; Payo, Andres; Sutherland, James; Thornhill, Gillian; Townend, Ian H.; van der Wegen, Mick; Walkden, Mike J. A.

2016-03-01

Coastal and shoreline management increasingly needs to consider morphological change occurring at decadal to centennial timescales, especially that related to climate change and sea-level rise. This requires the development of morphological models operating at a mesoscale, defined by time and length scales of the order 101 to 102 years and 101 to 102 km. So-called 'reduced complexity' models that represent critical processes at scales not much smaller than the primary scale of interest, and are regulated by capturing the critical feedbacks that govern landform behaviour, are proving effective as a means of exploring emergent coastal behaviour at a landscape scale. Such models tend to be computationally efficient and are thus easily applied within a probabilistic framework. At the same time, reductionist models, built upon a more detailed description of hydrodynamic and sediment transport processes, are capable of application at increasingly broad spatial and temporal scales. More qualitative modelling approaches are also emerging that can guide the development and deployment of quantitative models, and these can be supplemented by varied data-driven modelling approaches that can achieve new explanatory insights from observational datasets. Such disparate approaches have hitherto been pursued largely in isolation by mutually exclusive modelling communities. Brought together, they have the potential to facilitate a step change in our ability to simulate the evolution of coastal morphology at scales that are most relevant to managing erosion and flood risk. Here, we advocate and outline a new integrated modelling framework that deploys coupled mesoscale reduced complexity models, reductionist coastal area models, data-driven approaches, and qualitative conceptual models. Integration of these heterogeneous approaches gives rise to model compositions that can potentially resolve decadal- to centennial-scale behaviour of diverse coupled open coast, estuary and inner shelf settings. This vision is illustrated through an idealised composition of models for a ~ 70 km stretch of the Suffolk coast, eastern England. A key advantage of model linking is that it allows a wide range of real-world situations to be simulated from a small set of model components. However, this process involves more than just the development of software that allows for flexible model coupling. The compatibility of radically different modelling assumptions remains to be carefully assessed and testing as well as evaluating uncertainties of models in composition are areas that require further attention.

Rapid climate fluctuations over the past millennium: evidence from a lacustrine record of Basomtso Lake, southeastern Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Li, Kai; Liu, Xingqi; Herzschuh, Ulrike; Wang, Yongbo

2016-01-01

Abrupt climate changes and fluctuations over short time scales are superimposed on long-term climate changes. Understanding rapid climate fluctuations at the decadal time scale over the past millennium will enhance our understanding of patterns of climate variability and aid in forecasting climate changes in the future. In this study, climate changes on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau over the past millennium were determined from a 4.82-m-long sediment core from Basomtso Lake. At the centennial time scale, the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Little Ice Age (LIA) and Current Warm Period (CWP) are distinct in the Basomtso region. Rapid climate fluctuations inferred from five episodes with higher sediment input and likely warmer conditions, as well as seven episodes with lower sediment input and likely colder conditions, were well preserved in our record. These episodes with higher and lower sediment input are characterized by abrupt climate changes and short time durations. Spectral analysis indicates that the climate variations at the centennial scale on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau are influenced by solar activity during the past millennium. PMID:27091591

Up-scaling expectations among Pakistan's HIV bureaucrats: entrepreneurs of the self and job precariousness post-scale-up.

PubMed

Qureshi, Ayaz

2014-01-01

Existing research has documented how the expansion of HIV programming has produced new subjectivities among the recipients of interventions. However, this paper contends that changes in politics, power and subjectivities may also be seen among the HIV bureaucracy in the decade of scale-up. One year's ethnographic fieldwork was conducted among AIDS control officials in Pakistan at a moment of rolling back a World Bank-financed Enhanced Programme. In 2003, the World Bank convinced the Musharraf regime to scale up the HIV response, offering a multimillion dollar soft loan package. I explore how the Enhanced Programme initiated government employees into a new transient work culture and turned the AIDS control programmes into a hybrid bureaucracy. However, the donor money did not last long and individuals' entrepreneurial abilities were tested in a time of crisis engendered by dependence on aid, leaving them precariously exposed to job insecurity, and undermining the continuity of AIDS prevention and treatment in the country. I do not offer a story of global 'best practices' thwarted by local 'lack of capacity', but an ethnographic critique of the transnational HIV apparatus and its neoliberal underpinning. I suggest that this Pakistan-derived analysis is more widely relevant in the post-scale-up decade.

Testing Einstein's Gravity on Large Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prescod-Weinstein, Chandra

2011-01-01

A little over a decade has passed since two teams studying high redshift Type Ia supernovae announced the discovery that the expansion of the universe was accelerating. After all this time, we?re still not sure how cosmic acceleration fits into the theory that tells us about the large-scale universe: General Relativity (GR). As part of our search for answers, we have been forced to question GR itself. But how will we test our ideas? We are fortunate enough to be entering the era of precision cosmology, where the standard model of gravity can be subjected to more rigorous testing. Various techniques will be employed over the next decade or two in the effort to better understand cosmic acceleration and the theory behind it. In this talk, I will describe cosmic acceleration, current proposals to explain it, and weak gravitational lensing, an observational effect that allows us to do the necessary precision cosmology.

Rainfall Climatology over Asir Region, Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharif, H.; Furl, C.; Al-Zahrani, M.

2012-04-01

Arid and semi-arid lands occupy about one-third of the land surface of the earth and support about one-fifth of the world population. The Asir area in Saudi Arabia is an example of these areas faced with the problem of maintaining sustainable water resources. This problem is exacerbated by the high levels of population growth, land use changes, increasing water demand, and climate variability. In this study, the characteristics of decade-scale variations in precipitation are examined in more detail for Asir region. The spatio-temporal distributions of rainfall over the region are analyzed. The objectives are to identify the sensitivity, magnitude, and range of changes in annual and seasonal evapotranspiration resulting from observed decade-scale precipitation variations. An additional objective is to characterize orographic controls on the space-time variability of rainfall. The rainfall data is obtained from more than 30 rain gauges spread over the region.

A propagating freshwater mode in the Arctic Ocean with multidecadal time scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmith, Torben; Malskær Olsen, Steffen; Margrethe Ringgaard, Ida

2017-04-01

We apply Principal Oscillatory Pattern analysis to the Arctic Ocean fresh water content as simulated in a 500 year long control run with constant preindustrial forcing with the EC-Earth global climate model. Two modes emerge from this analysis. One mode is a standing mode with decadal time scale describing accumulation and release of fresh water in the Beaufort Gyre, known in the literature as the Beaufort Gyre flywheel. In addition, we identify a propagating mode with a time scale around 80 years, propagating along the rim of the Canadian Basin. This mode has maximum variability of the fresh water content in the Transpolar Drift and represents the bulk of the total variability of the fresh water content in the Arctic Ocean and also projects on the fresh water through the Fram Strait. Therefore, potentially, it can introduce a multidecadal variability to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. We will discuss the physical origin of this propagating mode. This include planetary-scale internal Rossby waves with multidecadal time scale, due to the slow variation of the Coriolis parameter at these high latitudes, as well as topographic steering of these Rossby waves.

Improve projections of changes in southern African summer rainfall through comprehensive multi-timescale empirical statistical downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieppois, B.; Pohl, B.; Eden, J.; Crétat, J.; Rouault, M.; Keenlyside, N.; New, M. G.

2017-12-01

The water management community has hitherto neglected or underestimated many of the uncertainties in climate impact scenarios, in particular, uncertainties associated with decadal climate variability. Uncertainty in the state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) is time-scale-dependant, e.g. stronger at decadal than at interannual timescales, in response to the different parameterizations and to internal climate variability. In addition, non-stationarity in statistical downscaling is widely recognized as a key problem, in which time-scale dependency of predictors plays an important role. As with global climate modelling, therefore, the selection of downscaling methods must proceed with caution to avoid unintended consequences of over-correcting the noise in GCMs (e.g. interpreting internal climate variability as a model bias). GCM outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) have therefore first been selected based on their ability to reproduce southern African summer rainfall variability and their teleconnections with Pacific sea-surface temperature across the dominant timescales. In observations, southern African summer rainfall has recently been shown to exhibit significant periodicities at the interannual timescale (2-8 years), quasi-decadal (8-13 years) and inter-decadal (15-28 years) timescales, which can be interpret as the signature of ENSO, the IPO, and the PDO over the region. Most of CMIP5 GCMs underestimate southern African summer rainfall variability and their teleconnections with Pacific SSTs at these three timescales. In addition, according to a more in-depth analysis of historical and pi-control runs, this bias is might result from internal climate variability in some of the CMIP5 GCMs, suggesting potential for bias-corrected prediction based empirical statistical downscaling. A multi-timescale regression based downscaling procedure, which determines the predictors across the different timescales, has thus been used to simulate southern African summer rainfall. This multi-timescale procedure shows much better skills in simulating decadal timescales of variability compared to commonly used statistical downscaling approaches.

Application of global weather and climate model output to the design and operation of wind-energy systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curry, Judith

This project addressed the challenge of providing weather and climate information to support the operation, management and planning for wind-energy systems. The need for forecast information is extending to longer projection windows with increasing penetration of wind power into the grid and also with diminishing reserve margins to meet peak loads during significant weather events. Maintenance planning and natural gas trading is being influenced increasingly by anticipation of wind generation on timescales of weeks to months. Future scenarios on decadal time scales are needed to support assessment of wind farm siting, government planning, long-term wind purchase agreements and the regulatorymore » environment. The challenge of making wind forecasts on these longer time scales is associated with a wide range of uncertainties in general circulation and regional climate models that make them unsuitable for direct use in the design and planning of wind-energy systems. To address this challenge, CFAN has developed a hybrid statistical/dynamical forecasting scheme for delivering probabilistic forecasts on time scales from one day to seven months using what is arguably the best forecasting system in the world (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, ECMWF). The project also provided a framework to assess future wind power through developing scenarios of interannual to decadal climate variability and change. The Phase II research has successfully developed an operational wind power forecasting system for the U.S., which is being extended to Europe and possibly Asia.« less

Stochastic simulation and decadal prediction of hydroclimate in the Western Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robertson, A. W.; Chekroun, M. D.; Cook, E.; D'Arrigo, R.; Ghil, M.; Greene, A. M.; Holsclaw, T.; Kondrashov, D. A.; Lall, U.; Lu, M.; Smyth, P.

2012-12-01

Improved estimates of climate over the next 10 to 50 years are needed for long-term planning in water resource and flood management. However, the task of effectively incorporating the results of climate change research into decision-making face a ``double conflict of scales'': the temporal scales of climate model projections are too long, while their usable spatial scales (global to planetary) are much larger than those needed for actual decision making (at the regional to local level). This work is designed to help tackle this ``double conflict'' in the context of water management over monsoonal Asia, based on dendroclimatic multi-century reconstructions of drought indices and river flows. We identify low-frequency modes of variability with time scales from interannual to interdecadal based on these series, and then generate future scenarios based on (a) empirical model decadal predictions, and (b) stochastic simulations generated with autoregressive models that reproduce the power spectrum of the data. Finally, we consider how such scenarios could be used to develop reservoir optimization models. Results will be presented based on multi-century Upper Indus river discharge reconstructions that exhibit a strong periodicity near 27 years that is shown to yield some retrospective forecasting skill over the 1700-2000 period, at a 15-yr yield time. Stochastic simulations of annual PDSI drought index values over the Upper Indus basin are constructed using Empirical Model Reduction; their power spectra are shown to be quite realistic, with spectral peaks near 5--8 years.

Decadal time-scale monitoring of forest fires in Similipal Biosphere Reserve, India using remote sensing and GIS.

PubMed

Saranya, K R L; Reddy, C Sudhakar; Rao, P V V Prasada; Jha, C S

2014-05-01

Analyzing the spatial extent and distribution of forest fires is essential for sustainable forest resource management. There is no comprehensive data existing on forest fires on a regular basis in Biosphere Reserves of India. The present work have been carried out to locate and estimate the spatial extent of forest burnt areas using Resourcesat-1 data and fire frequency covering decadal fire events (2004-2013) in Similipal Biosphere Reserve. The anomalous quantity of forest burnt area was recorded during 2009 as 1,014.7 km(2). There was inconsistency in the fire susceptibility across the different vegetation types. The spatial analysis of burnt area shows that an area of 34.2 % of dry deciduous forests, followed by tree savannah, shrub savannah, and grasslands affected by fires in 2013. The analysis based on decadal time scale satellite data reveals that an area of 2,175.9 km(2) (59.6 % of total vegetation cover) has been affected by varied rate of frequency of forest fires. Fire density pattern indicates low count of burnt area patches in 2013 estimated at 1,017 and high count at 1,916 in 2004. An estimate of fire risk area over a decade identifies 12.2 km(2) is experiencing an annual fire damage. Summing the fire frequency data across the grids (each 1 km(2)) indicates 1,211 (26 %) grids are having very high disturbance regimes due to repeated fires in all the 10 years, followed by 711 grids in 9 years and 418 in 8 years and 382 in 7 years. The spatial database offers excellent opportunities to understand the ecological impact of fires on biodiversity and is helpful in formulating conservation action plans.

Variability modes of precipitation along a Central Mediterranean area and their relations with ENSO, NAO, and other climatic patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalimeris, Anastasios; Ranieri, Ezio; Founda, Dimitra; Norrant, Caroline

2017-12-01

This study analyses a century-long set of precipitation time series in the Central Mediterranean (encompassing the Greek Ionian and the Italian Puglia regions) and investigates the statistically significant modes of the interannual precipitation variability using efficient methods of spectral decomposition. The statistical relations and the possible physical couplings between the detected modes and the global or hemispheric patterns of climatic variability (the El Niño Southern Oscillation or ENSO, the North Atlantic Oscillation or NAO, the East Atlantic or EA, the Scandinavian or SCAND, and others) were examined in the time-frequency domain and low-order synchronization events were sought. Significant modes of precipitation variability were detected in the Taranto Gulf and the southern part of the Greek Ionian region at the sub-decadal scales (mostly driven by the SCAND pattern) and particularly at the decadal and quasi-decadal scales, where strong relations found with the ENSO activity (under complex implications of EA and NAO) prior to the 1930s or after the early-1970s. The precipitation variations in the Adriatic stations of Puglia are dominated by significant bi-decadal modes which found to be coherent with the ENSO activity and also weakly related with the Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature intrinsic variability. Additionally, important discontinuities characterize the evolution of precipitation in certain stations of the Taranto Gulf and the Greek Ionian region during the early-1960s and particularly during the early-1970s, followed by significant reductions in the mean annual precipitation. These discontinuities seem to be associated with regional effects of NAO and SCAND, probably combined with the impact of the 1970s climatic shift in the Pacific and the ENSO variability.

Improving seasonal forecasts of hydroclimatic variables through the state of multiple large-scale climate signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castelletti, A.; Giuliani, M.; Block, P. J.

2017-12-01

Increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes combined with more frequent and intense extreme events are challenging water systems management worldwide, emphasizing the need of accurate medium- to long-term predictions to timely prompt anticipatory operations. Despite modern forecasts are skillful over short lead time (from hours to days), predictability generally tends to decrease on longer lead times. Global climate teleconnection, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), may contribute in extending forecast lead times. However, ENSO teleconnection is well defined in some locations, such as Western USA and Australia, while there is no consensus on how it can be detected and used in other regions, particularly in Europe, Africa, and Asia. In this work, we generalize the Niño Index Phase Analysis (NIPA) framework by contributing the Multi Variate Niño Index Phase Analysis (MV-NIPA), which allows capturing the state of multiple large-scale climate signals (i.e. ENSO, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole) to forecast hydroclimatic variables on a seasonal time scale. Specifically, our approach distinguishes the different phases of the considered climate signals and, for each phase, identifies relevant anomalies in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) that influence the local hydrologic conditions. The potential of the MV-NIPA framework is demonstrated through an application to the Lake Como system, a regulated lake in northern Italy which is mainly operated for flood control and irrigation supply. Numerical results show high correlations between seasonal SST values and one season-ahead precipitation in the Lake Como basin. The skill of the resulting MV-NIPA forecast outperforms the one of ECMWF products. This information represents a valuable contribution to partially anticipate the summer water availability, especially during drought events, ultimately supporting the improvement of the Lake Como operations.

When at what scale will trends in European mean and heavy precipitation emerge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maraun, Douglas

2013-04-01

A multi-model ensemble of regional climate projections for Europe is employed to investigate how the time of emergence (TOE) for seasonal sums and maxima of daily precipitation depends on spatial scale. The TOE is redefined for emergence from internal variability only, the spread of the TOE due to imperfect climate model formulation is used as a measure of uncertainty in the TOE itself. Thereby the TOE becomes a fundamentally limiting time scale and translates into a minimum spatial scale on which robust conclusions can be drawn about precipitation trends. Thus also minimum temporal and spatial scales for adaptation planning are given. In northern Europe, positive winter trends in mean and heavy precipitation, in southwestern and southeastern Europe summer trends in mean precipitation emerge already within the next decades. Yet across wide areas, especially for heavy summer precipitation, the local trend emerges only late in the 21st century or later. For precipitation averaged to larger scales, the trend in general emerges earlier. Douglas Maraun, When at what scale will trends in European mean and heavy precipitation emerge? Env. Res. Lett., in press, 2013.

On the relationship between large-scale climate modes and regional synoptic patterns that drive Victorian rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verdon-Kidd, D.; Kiem, A. S.

2008-10-01

In this paper regional (synoptic) and large-scale climate drivers of rainfall are investigated for Victoria, Australia. A non-linear classification methodology known as self-organizing maps (SOM) is used to identify 20 key regional synoptic patterns, which are shown to capture a range of significant synoptic features known to influence the climate of the region. Rainfall distributions are assigned to each of the 20 patterns for nine rainfall stations located across Victoria, resulting in a clear distinction between wet and dry synoptic types at each station. The influence of large-scale climate modes on the frequency and timing of the regional synoptic patterns is also investigated. This analysis revealed that phase changes in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and/or Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are associated with a shift in the relative frequency of wet and dry synoptic types. Importantly, these results highlight the potential to utilise the link between the regional synoptic patterns derived in this study and large-scale climate modes to improve rainfall forecasting for Victoria, both in the short- (i.e. seasonal) and long-term (i.e. decadal/multi-decadal scale). In addition, the regional and large-scale climate drivers identified in this study provide a benchmark by which the performance of Global Climate Models (GCMs) may be assessed.

Melt inclusion shapes: Timekeepers of short-lived giant magma bodies

DOE PAGES

Pamukcu, Ayla S.; Gualda, Guilherme A. R.; Bégué, Florence; ...

2015-09-24

The longevity of giant magma bodies in the Earth’s crust prior to eruption is poorly constrained, but recognition of short time scales by multiple methods suggests that the accumulation and eruption of these giant bodies may occur rapidly. We describe a new method that uses textures of quartz-hosted melt inclusions, determined using quantitative three-dimensional propagation phase-contrast X-ray tomography, to estimate quartz crystallization times and growth rates, and we compare the results to those from Ti diffusion profiles. We investigate three large-volume, high-silica rhyolite eruptions: the 240 ka Ohakuri-Mamaku and 26.5 ka Oruanui (Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand), and the 760more » ka Bishop Tuff (California, USA). Our results show that (1) longevity estimates from melt inclusion textures and Ti diffusion profiles are comparable, (2) quartz growth rates average ∼10−12 m/s, and (3) quartz melt inclusions give decadal to centennial time scales, revealing that giant magma bodies can develop over notably short historical time scales.« less

Observations and 3D hydrodynamics-based modeling of decadal-scale shoreline change along the Outer Banks, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Safak, Ilgar; List, Jeffrey; Warner, John C.; Kumar, Nirnimesh

2017-01-01

Long-term decadal-scale shoreline change is an important parameter for quantifying the stability of coastal systems. The decadal-scale coastal change is controlled by processes that occur on short time scales (such as storms) and long-term processes (such as prevailing waves). The ability to predict decadal-scale shoreline change is not well established and the fundamental physical processes controlling this change are not well understood. Here we investigate the processes that create large-scale long-term shoreline change along the Outer Banks of North Carolina, an uninterrupted 60 km stretch of coastline, using both observations and a numerical modeling approach. Shoreline positions for a 24-yr period were derived from aerial photographs of the Outer Banks. Analysis of the shoreline position data showed that, although variable, the shoreline eroded an average of 1.5 m/yr throughout this period. The modeling approach uses a three-dimensional hydrodynamics-based numerical model coupled to a spectral wave model and simulates the full 24-yr time period on a spatial grid running on a short (second scale) time-step to compute the sediment transport patterns. The observations and the model results show similar magnitudes (O(105 m3/yr)) and patterns of alongshore sediment fluxes. Both the observed and the modeled alongshore sediment transport rates have more rapid changes at the north of our section due to continuously curving coastline, and possible effects of alongshore variations in shelf bathymetry. The southern section with a relatively uniform orientation, on the other hand, has less rapid transport rate changes. Alongshore gradients of the modeled sediment fluxes are translated into shoreline change rates that have agreement in some locations but vary in others. Differences between observations and model results are potentially influenced by geologic framework processes not included in the model. Both the observations and the model results show higher rates of erosion (∼−1 m/yr) averaged over the northern half of the section as compared to the southern half where the observed and modeled averaged net shoreline changes are smaller (<0.1 m/yr). The model indicates accretion in some shallow embayments, whereas observations indicate erosion in these locations. Further analysis identifies that the magnitude of net alongshore sediment transport is strongly dominated by events associated with high wave energy. However, both big- and small- wave events cause shoreline change of the same order of magnitude because it is the gradients in transport, not the magnitude, that are controlling shoreline change. Results also indicate that alongshore momentum is not a simple balance between wave breaking and bottom stress, but also includes processes of horizontal vortex force, horizontal advection and pressure gradient that contribute to long-term alongshore sediment transport. As a comparison to a more simple approach, an empirical formulation for alongshore sediment transport is used. The empirical estimates capture the effect of the breaking term in the hydrodynamics-based model, however, other processes that are accounted for in the hydrodynamics-based model improve the agreement with the observed alongshore sediment transport.

Projecting Global Decadal Change in Water Supply for Strategic Planning: Window Size Sensitivity in CMIP5 GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luck, M.; Landis, M.; Gassert, F.; Luo, T.; Reig, P.

2013-12-01

Climate adaptation and strategic planning by states, corporations, and long-term investors require reliable information on the range of possible climatic changes. However, most decision makers are incapable of planning over the century-scale time horizons for which global climate models (GCMs) are developed. Even the most forward-looking actors rarely consider scenarios more than several decades into the future. The mismatch in model design and practical demands poses a challenge in extracting useful information on the decadal scale from global climate change models. Here, we explore options and limitations in generating decadal water supply change projections, as evaluated for the World Resources Institute's Aqueduct project's estimates of future change in water stress. Our approach uses an ensemble of six CMIP5 GCMs, selected to represent a broad lineage of models that best reproduce the mean and standard deviation of recent streamflow records in 18 large river basins, bias corrected to GLDAS-2.0 runoff. We examine sensitivity of point estimates of climate normal supply and water supply variability (interannual and seasonal) at the years 2020, 2030, and 2040, with a focus on using temporal windows of different lengths (11-, 21-, and 31-years) to generate the point estimates. With the aim of creating practical information for non-expert audiences, we will discuss the persistent question of 'how can we balance uncertainty and usability in designing scientific data products?'

Climate-FVS Version 2: Content, users guide, applications, and behavior

Treesearch

Nicholas L. Crookston

2014-01-01

Climate change in the 21st Century is projected to cause widespread changes in forest ecosystems. Climate-FVS is a modification to the Forest Vegetation Simulator designed to take climate change into account when predicting forest dynamics at decadal to century time scales. Individual tree climate viability scores measure the likelihood that the climate at a given...

Economic analysis in support of broad scale land management strategies.

Treesearch

Richard Haynes

2003-01-01

The US has a century of experience with the development of forest policies that have benefited from or been influenced by economic research activities in the forest sector. At the same time, increasing rigor in policy debates stimulated economics research. During the past four decades economic research has evolved to include increased understanding of consumer demands...

Dendroecological applications in air pollution and environmental chemistry: research needs

Treesearch

Samuel B. McLaughlin; Walter C. Shortle; Kevin T. Smith

2002-01-01

During the past two decades, dendrochronology has evolved in new dimensions that have helped address both the extent and causes of impacts of regional scale environmental pollution on the productivity and function of forest ecosystems. Initial focus on the magnitude and timing of alterations of baseline growth levels of individual forest trees has now broadened to...

Caution Ahead: Overdue Investments for New York's Aging Infrastructure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Forman, Adam

2014-01-01

Following the devastation of Superstorm Sandy in October 2012, New York City's essential infrastructure needs were made a top policy priority for the first time in decades. The scale and severity of the storm prompted numerous studies to assess the damage and led policymakers to take steps to shore up the city's coastal infrastructure weaknesses.…

How Robust Are the Surface Temperature Fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Meridional Circulation on Monthly Time Scales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander-Turner, R.; Ortega, P.; Robson, J. I.

2018-04-01

It has been suggested that changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can drive sea surface temperature (SST) on monthly time scales (Duchez et al., 2016, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GB005667). However, with only 11 years of continuous observations, the validity of this result over longer, or different, time periods is uncertain. In this study, we use a 120 yearlong control simulation from a high-resolution climate model to test the robustness of the AMOC fingerprints. The model reproduces the observed AMOC seasonal cycle and its variability, and the observed 5-month lagged AMOC-SST fingerprints derived from 11 years of data. However, the AMOC-SST fingerprints are very sensitive to the particular time period considered. In particular, both the Florida current and the upper mid-ocean transport produce highly inconsistent fingerprints when using time periods shorter than 30 years. Therefore, several decades of RAPID observations will be necessary to determine the real impact of the AMOC on SSTs at monthly time scales.

Monitoring and understanding changes in heat waves, cold waves, floods, and droughts in the United States: State of knowledge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, Thomas C.; Heim, Richard R.; Hirsch, Robert M.; Kaiser, Dale P.; Brooks, Harold; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Dole, Randall M.; Giovannettone, Jason P.; Guirguis, Kristen; Karl, Thomas R.; Katz, Richard W.; Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Ryberg, Karen R.; K Wolter, BS Silva; Schubert, Siegfried; Silva, Viviane B. S.; Stewart, Brooke C.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Villarini, Gabriele; Vose, Russell S.; Walsh, John; Wehner, Michael; Wolock, David; Wolter, Klaus; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Wuebbles, Donald

2013-01-01

Weather and climate extremes have been varying and changing on many different time scales. In recent decades, heat waves have generally become more frequent across the United States, while cold waves have been decreasing. While this is in keeping with expectations in a warming climate, it turns out that decadal variations in the number of U.S. heat and cold waves do not correlate well with the observed U.S. warming during the last century. Annual peak flow data reveal that river flooding trends on the century scale do not show uniform changes across the country. While flood magnitudes in the Southwest have been decreasing, flood magnitudes in the Northeast and north-central United States have been increasing. Confounding the analysis of trends in river flooding is multiyear and even multidecadal variability likely caused by both large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and basin-scale “memory” in the form of soil moisture. Droughts also have long-term trends as well as multiyear and decadal variability. Instrumental data indicate that the Dust Bowl of the 1930s and the drought in the 1950s were the most significant twentieth-century droughts in the United States, while tree ring data indicate that the megadroughts over the twelfth century exceeded anything in the twentieth century in both spatial extent and duration. The state of knowledge of the factors that cause heat waves, cold waves, floods, and drought to change is fairly good with heat waves being the best understood.

Universal scaling law in human behavioral organization.

PubMed

Nakamura, Toru; Kiyono, Ken; Yoshiuchi, Kazuhiro; Nakahara, Rika; Struzik, Zbigniew R; Yamamoto, Yoshiharu

2007-09-28

We describe the nature of human behavioral organization, specifically how resting and active periods are interwoven throughout daily life. Active period durations with physical activity count successively above a predefined threshold, when rescaled with individual means, follow a universal stretched exponential (gamma-type) cumulative distribution with characteristic time, both in healthy individuals and in patients with major depressive disorder. On the other hand, resting period durations below the threshold for both groups obey a scale-free power-law cumulative distribution over two decades, with significantly lower scaling exponents in the patients. We thus find universal distribution laws governing human behavioral organization, with a parameter altered in depression.

Universal Scaling Law in Human Behavioral Organization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, Toru; Kiyono, Ken; Yoshiuchi, Kazuhiro; Nakahara, Rika; Struzik, Zbigniew R.; Yamamoto, Yoshiharu

2007-09-01

We describe the nature of human behavioral organization, specifically how resting and active periods are interwoven throughout daily life. Active period durations with physical activity count successively above a predefined threshold, when rescaled with individual means, follow a universal stretched exponential (gamma-type) cumulative distribution with characteristic time, both in healthy individuals and in patients with major depressive disorder. On the other hand, resting period durations below the threshold for both groups obey a scale-free power-law cumulative distribution over two decades, with significantly lower scaling exponents in the patients. We thus find universal distribution laws governing human behavioral organization, with a parameter altered in depression.

Decadal variations in the strength of ENSO teleconnections with precipitation in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Dettinger, M.D.

1999-01-01

Changing patterns of correlations between the historical average June-November Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and October-March precipitation totals for 84 climate divisions in the western US indicate a large amount of variability in SOI/precipitation relations on decadal time scales. Correlations of western US precipitation with SOI and other indices of tropical El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) processes were much weaker from 1920 to 1950 than during recent decades. This variability in teleconnections is associated with the character of tropical air-sea interactions as indexed by the number of out-of-phase SOI/tropical sea surface temperature (SST) episodes, and with decadal variability in the North Pacific Ocean as indexed by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). ENSO teleconnections with precipitation in the western US are strong when SOI and NINO3 are out-of-phase and PDO is negative. ENSO teleconnections are weak when SOI and NINO3 are weakly correlated and PDO is positive. Decadal modes of tropical and North Pacific Ocean climate variability are important indicators of periods when ENSO indices, like SOI, can be used as reliable predictors of winter precipitation in the US.

Reoccupation of floodplains by rivers and its relation to the age structure of floodplain vegetation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konrad, Christopher P.

2012-01-01

River channel dynamics over many decades provide a physical control on the age structure of floodplain vegetation as a river occupies and abandons locations. Floodplain reoccupation by a river, in particular, determines the interval of time during which vegetation can establish and mature. A general framework for analyzing floodplain reoccupation and a time series model are developed and applied to five alluvial rivers in the United States. Channel dynamics in these rivers demonstrate time-scale dependence with short-term oscillation in active channel area in response to floods and subsequent vegetation growth and progressive lateral movement that accounts for much of the cumulative area occupied by the rivers over decades. Rivers preferentially reoccupy locations recently abandoned causing a decreasing probability of reoccupation with time since abandonment. For a typical case, a river is 10 times more likely to reoccupy an area it abandoned in the past decade than it is to reoccupy an area it abandoned 30 yrs ago. The decreasing probability of reoccupation over time is consistent with observations of persistent stands of late seral stage floodplain forest. A power function provides a robust approach for estimating the cumulative area occupied by a river and the age structure of riparian forests resulting from a specific historical sequence of streamflow in comparison to either linear or exponential alternatives.

The Baltic Sea natural long-term variability of salinity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schimanke, Semjon; Markus Meier, H. E.

2015-04-01

The Baltic Sea is one of the largest brackish sea areas of the world. The sensitive state of the Baltic Sea is sustained by a fresh-water surplus by river discharge and precipitation on one hand as well as inflows of highly saline and oxygen-rich water masses from the North Sea on the other. Major inflows which are crucial for the renewal of the deep water occur very intermittent with a mean frequency of approximately one per year. Stagnation periods (periods without major inflows) lead for instance to a reduction of oxygen concentration in the deep Baltic Sea spreading hypoxic conditions. Depending on the amount of salt water inflow and fresh-water supply the deep water salinity of the Baltic Sea varies between 11 to 14 PSU on the decadal scale. The goal of this study is to understand the contribution of different driving factors for the decadal to multi-decadal variability of salinity in the Baltic Sea. Continuous measurement series of salinity exist from the 1950 but are not sufficiently long for the investigation of long-term fluctuations. Therefore, a climate simulation of more than 800 years has been carried out with the Rossby Center Ocean model (RCO). RCO is a biogeochemical regional climate model which covers the entire Baltic Sea. It is driven with atmospheric data dynamical downscaled from a GCM mimicking natural climate variability. The analysis focus on the role of variations in river discharge and precipitation, changes in wind speed and direction, fluctuations in temperature and shifts in large scale pressure patterns (e.g. NAO). Hereby, the length of the simulation will allow to identify mechanisms working on decadal to multi-decadal time scales. Moreover, it will be discussed how likely long stagnation periods are under natural climate variability and if the observed exceptional long stagnation period between 1983-1993 might be related to beginning climate change.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Herrnstein, Aaron R.

An ocean model with adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) capability is presented for simulating ocean circulation on decade time scales. The model closely resembles the LLNL ocean general circulation model with some components incorporated from other well known ocean models when appropriate. Spatial components are discretized using finite differences on a staggered grid where tracer and pressure variables are defined at cell centers and velocities at cell vertices (B-grid). Horizontal motion is modeled explicitly with leapfrog and Euler forward-backward time integration, and vertical motion is modeled semi-implicitly. New AMR strategies are presented for horizontal refinement on a B-grid, leapfrog time integration,more » and time integration of coupled systems with unequal time steps. These AMR capabilities are added to the LLNL software package SAMRAI (Structured Adaptive Mesh Refinement Application Infrastructure) and validated with standard benchmark tests. The ocean model is built on top of the amended SAMRAI library. The resulting model has the capability to dynamically increase resolution in localized areas of the domain. Limited basin tests are conducted using various refinement criteria and produce convergence trends in the model solution as refinement is increased. Carbon sequestration simulations are performed on decade time scales in domains the size of the North Atlantic and the global ocean. A suggestion is given for refinement criteria in such simulations. AMR predicts maximum pH changes and increases in CO 2 concentration near the injection sites that are virtually unattainable with a uniform high resolution due to extremely long run times. Fine scale details near the injection sites are achieved by AMR with shorter run times than the finest uniform resolution tested despite the need for enhanced parallel performance. The North Atlantic simulations show a reduction in passive tracer errors when AMR is applied instead of a uniform coarse resolution. No dramatic or persistent signs of error growth in the passive tracer outgassing or the ocean circulation are observed to result from AMR.« less

Slow Invariant Manifolds in Chemically Reactive Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paolucci, Samuel; Powers, Joseph M.

2006-11-01

The scientific design of practical gas phase combustion devices has come to rely on the use of mathematical models which include detailed chemical kinetics. Such models intrinsically admit a wide range of scales which renders their accurate numerical approximation difficult. Over the past decade, rational strategies, such as Intrinsic Low Dimensional Manifolds (ILDM) or Computational Singular Perturbations (CSP), for equilibrating fast time scale events have been successfully developed, though their computation can be challenging and their accuracy in most cases uncertain. Both are approximations to the preferable slow invariant manifold which best describes how the system evolves in the long time limit. Strategies for computing the slow invariant manifold are examined, and results are presented for practical combustion systems.

Effect of Modulation of ENSO by Decadal and Multidecadal Ocean-Atmospheric Oscillations on Continental US Streamflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, S.; Abebe, A.; Srivastava, P.; Chaubey, I.

2017-12-01

Evaluation of the influences of individual and coupled oceanic-atmospheric oscillations on streamflow at a regional scale in the United States is the focus of this study. The main climatic oscillations considered in this study are: El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Unimpacted or minimally impacted by water management streamflow data from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) were used in this study. Two robust and novel non-parametric tests, namely, the rank based partial least square (PLS) and the Joint Rank Fit (JRFit) procedures were used to identify the individual and coupled effect of oscillations on streamflow across continental U.S. (CONUS), respectively. Moreover, the interactive effects of ENSO with decadal and multidecadal cycles were tested and quantified using the JRFit interaction test. The analysis of ENSO indicated higher streamflows during La Niña phase compared to the El Niño phase in Northwest, Northeast and the lower part of Ohio Valley while the opposite occurs for rest of the climatic regions in US. Two distinct climate regions (Northwest and Southeast) were identified from the PDO analysis where PDO negative phase results in increased streamflow than PDO positive phase. Consistent negative and positive correlated regions around the CONUS were identified for AMO and NAO, respectively. The interaction test of ENSO with decadal and multidecadal oscillations showed that El Niño is modulated by the negative phase of PDO and NAO, and the positive phase of AMO, respectively, in the Upper Midwest. However, La Niña is modulated by the positive phase of AMO and PDO in Ohio Valley and Northeast while in Southeast and the South it is modulated by AMO negative phase. Results of this study will assist water managers to understand the streamflow change patterns across the CONUS at decadal and multi-decadal time scales. The information derived from this study would be helpful for regional water managers in forecasting regional water availability and help them develop drought adaptation and mitigation policies by incorporating information based on the large scale ocean-atmospheric cycles.

Lessons Learned from a Decade of Sudden Oak Death in California: Evaluating Local Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander, Janice; Lee, Christopher A.

2010-09-01

Sudden Oak Death has been impacting California’s coastal forests for more than a decade. In that time, and in the absence of a centrally organized and coordinated set of mandatory management actions for this disease in California’s wildlands and open spaces, many local communities have initiated their own management programs. We present five case studies to explore how local-level management has attempted to control this disease. From these case studies, we glean three lessons: connections count, scale matters, and building capacity is crucial. These lessons may help management, research, and education planning for future pest and disease outbreaks.

Lessons Learned from a Decade of Sudden Oak Death in California: Evaluating Local Management

PubMed Central

Alexander, Janice

2010-01-01

Sudden Oak Death has been impacting California’s coastal forests for more than a decade. In that time, and in the absence of a centrally organized and coordinated set of mandatory management actions for this disease in California’s wildlands and open spaces, many local communities have initiated their own management programs. We present five case studies to explore how local-level management has attempted to control this disease. From these case studies, we glean three lessons: connections count, scale matters, and building capacity is crucial. These lessons may help management, research, and education planning for future pest and disease outbreaks. PMID:20559634

Decadal Prediction Efforts in GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rienecker, Michele M.; Suarez, Max; Schubert, Siegfried

2010-01-01

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) plans to use our GEOS-5 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) to explore issues associated with predictability on decadal time scales and to contribute to the decadal prediction project that is part ofCMIP5. The GEOS-5 AOGCM is comprised of the GEOS-5 AGCM with the Catchment Land Surface Model, coupled to GFDL's MOM, version 4. We have assimilation systems for both the atmosphere and ocean. For our climate prediction efforts, the atmosphere will be initialized from the GEOS-5 Modem Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), available from 1979 to present at 112 resolution, and from 1948 to present at 2 resolution. The ocean assimilation is conducted within the coupled model framework, using the MERRA as a constraint for both the atmosphere and the ocean. The decadal prediction experiments will be conducted with a 1 atmosphere and a 112 ocean. Some initial results will be presented, focusing on initialization aspects of the GEOS-5 system.

Factors Affecting the Inter-annual to Centennial Time Scale Variability of All Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan

2016-04-01

The All Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) is highly important for the livelihood of more than 1 billion people living in the Indian sub-continent. The agriculture of this region is heavily dependent on seasonal (JJAS) monsoon rainfall. An early start or a slight delay of monsoon, or an early withdrawal or prolonged monsoon season may upset the farmer's agricultural plans, can cause significant reduction in crop yield, and hence economic loss. Understanding of AISMR is also vital because it is a part of global atmospheric circulation system. Several studies show that AISMR is influenced by internal climate forcings (ICFs) viz. ENSO, AMO, PDO etc. as well as external climate forcings (ECFs) viz. Greenhouse Gases, volcanic eruptions, and Total Solar Irradiance (TSI). We investigate the influence of ICFs and ECFs on AISMR using recently developed statistical technique called De-trended Partial-Cross-Correlation Analysis (DPCCA). DPCCA can analyse a complex system of several interlinked variables. Often, climatic variables, being cross correlated, are simultaneously tele-connected with several other variables and it is not easy to isolate their intrinsic relationship. In the presence of non-stationarities and background signals the calculated correlation coefficients can be overestimated and erroneous. DPCCA method removes the non-stationarities and partials out the influence of background signals from the variables being cross correlated and thus give a robust estimate of correlation. We have performed the analysis using NOAA Reconstructed SSTs and homogenised instrumental AISMR data set from 1854-1999. By employing the DPCCA method we find that there is a statistically insignificant negative intrinsic relation (by excluding the influence of ICFs, and ECFs except TSI) between AISMR and TSI on decadal to centennial time scale. The ICFs considerably modulate the relation between AISMR and solar activity between 50-80 year time scales and transform this relationship to statistically significant positive. We conclude that the positive relation between AISMR and solar activity, as found by other authors, is due to the combined effect of AMO, PDO and multi-decadal ENSO variability on AISMR. The solar activity influences the ICFs and this influence is then transmitted to AISMR. Further, we find that there is statistically positive intrinsic relation between AISMR and AMO from 26 to 100 year time scales which is modulated by ICFs (PDO, ENSO) and ECFs. PDO, ENSO, and solar activity weaken this intrinsic relationship whereas the combined effect of ECFc (solar activity, volcanic eruptions, CO2, & tropospheric aerosol optical depth) results in strengthening of this relationship from 70 to 100 year time scales. There is a negative intrinsic relation between AISMR and PDO which is not statistically significant at any time scale. However this relationship becomes statistically significant only in the presence of combined effect of North Atlantic SSTs and ENSO (4-39 year time scale) and individual effect of TSI (3-26 year time scale) on AISMR. We also find that there is statistical significant negative relationship between AISMR and ENSO on inter-annual to centennial time scale and the strength of this relationship is modulated by solar activity from 3 to 40 year time scale.

Trend and variability in western and central Africa streamflow, and major drivers of variability between 1950 and 2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dieppois, B.; Sidibe, M.; Mahe, G. M.; Paturel, J. E.; Anifowose, B. A.; Lawler, D.; Amoussou, E.

2017-12-01

Unprecedented drought episodes that struck western and central Africa between the late 1960s and 1980s, triggered many studies investigating rainfall variability and its impacts on water resources and food production systems. However, most studies were focused at the catchment scale. In this study, we aim at investigating the key large-scale controls determining and modulating climate-river flows relationships at the subcontinental scale between 1950 and 2005. Using the first complete monthly streamflow data set (1950-2005) over western and central Africa, streamflow trend and variability are seasonally assessed at this subcontinental scale and compared to those observed in other hydroclimatic variables (precipitation, temperature and potential evapotranspiration). Long-term trends and variability in streamflow are mainly consistent with trends in rainfall. In particular, the recent post-1990s partial recovery in Sahel rainfall could have, at least partially, positively impacted river flows (e.g. the Senegal and Niger rivers). However, these relationships may have been moderated by: i) changes in land use; and ii) contributions from groundwater resources. In addition, the time-evolution of river flows is shown to be primarily driven by very strong decadal fluctuations, which can be interpreted as modulations in the baseflow, as determined using multi-temporal trend and continuous wavelet analysis. These decadal fluctuations, which are also significantly detected in rainfall, are likely related to large-scale sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns (such as the tropical Atlantic SST variability, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation), which are together modulating the West African monsoon. Furthermore, influences of the catchment properties (e.g. size, vegetation and land use cover, soil properties, direction of stream flow across climate zones) on these decadal fluctuations in river flows have been examined. This study therefore aims to improve the ability of current global to regional climate models to simulate such ranges of variability and understand regional hydroclimate, as a means for improving the development of future scenarios for water resources in western and central Africa.

The Space-Time Conservative Schemes for Large-Scale, Time-Accurate Flow Simulations with Tetrahedral Meshes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Venkatachari, Balaji Shankar; Streett, Craig L.; Chang, Chau-Lyan; Friedlander, David J.; Wang, Xiao-Yen; Chang, Sin-Chung

2016-01-01

Despite decades of development of unstructured mesh methods, high-fidelity time-accurate simulations are still predominantly carried out on structured, or unstructured hexahedral meshes by using high-order finite-difference, weighted essentially non-oscillatory (WENO), or hybrid schemes formed by their combinations. In this work, the space-time conservation element solution element (CESE) method is used to simulate several flow problems including supersonic jet/shock interaction and its impact on launch vehicle acoustics, and direct numerical simulations of turbulent flows using tetrahedral meshes. This paper provides a status report for the continuing development of the space-time conservation element solution element (CESE) numerical and software framework under the Revolutionary Computational Aerosciences (RCA) project. Solution accuracy and large-scale parallel performance of the numerical framework is assessed with the goal of providing a viable paradigm for future high-fidelity flow physics simulations.

Biogeochemistry from Gliders at the Hawaii Ocean Times-Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholson, D. P.; Barone, B.; Karl, D. M.

2016-02-01

At the Hawaii Ocean Time-series (HOT) autonomous, underwater gliders equipped with biogeochemical sensors observe the oceans for months at a time, sampling spatiotemporal scales missed by the ship-based programs. Over the last decade, glider data augmented by a foundation of time-series observations have shed light on biogeochemical dynamics occuring spatially at meso- and submesoscales and temporally on scales from diel to annual. We present insights gained from the synergy between glider observations, time-series measurements and remote sensing in the subtropical North Pacific. We focus on diel variability observed in dissolved oxygen and bio-optics and approaches to autonomously quantify net community production and gross primary production (GPP) as developed during the 2012 Hawaii Ocean Experiment - DYnamics of Light And Nutrients (HOE-DYLAN). Glider-based GPP measurements were extended to explore the relationship between GPP and mesoscale context over multiple years of Seaglider deployments.

A fast time-difference inverse solver for 3D EIT with application to lung imaging.

PubMed

Javaherian, Ashkan; Soleimani, Manuchehr; Moeller, Knut

2016-08-01

A class of sparse optimization techniques that require solely matrix-vector products, rather than an explicit access to the forward matrix and its transpose, has been paid much attention in the recent decade for dealing with large-scale inverse problems. This study tailors application of the so-called Gradient Projection for Sparse Reconstruction (GPSR) to large-scale time-difference three-dimensional electrical impedance tomography (3D EIT). 3D EIT typically suffers from the need for a large number of voxels to cover the whole domain, so its application to real-time imaging, for example monitoring of lung function, remains scarce since the large number of degrees of freedom of the problem extremely increases storage space and reconstruction time. This study shows the great potential of the GPSR for large-size time-difference 3D EIT. Further studies are needed to improve its accuracy for imaging small-size anomalies.

Evaluating Commercial and Private Cloud Services for Facility-Scale Geodetic Data Access, Analysis, and Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meertens, C. M.; Boler, F. M.; Ertz, D. J.; Mencin, D.; Phillips, D.; Baker, S.

2017-12-01

UNAVCO, in its role as a NSF facility for geodetic infrastructure and data, has succeeded for over two decades using on-premises infrastructure, and while the promise of cloud-based infrastructure is well-established, significant questions about suitability of such infrastructure for facility-scale services remain. Primarily through the GeoSciCloud award from NSF EarthCube, UNAVCO is investigating the costs, advantages, and disadvantages of providing its geodetic data and services in the cloud versus using UNAVCO's on-premises infrastructure. (IRIS is a collaborator on the project and is performing its own suite of investigations). In contrast to the 2-3 year time scale for the research cycle, the time scale of operation and planning for NSF facilities is for a minimum of five years and for some services extends to a decade or more. Planning for on-premises infrastructure is deliberate, and migrations typically take months to years to fully implement. Migrations to a cloud environment can only go forward with similar deliberate planning and understanding of all costs and benefits. The EarthCube GeoSciCloud project is intended to address the uncertainties of facility-level operations in the cloud. Investigations are being performed in a commercial cloud environment (Amazon AWS) during the first year of the project and in a private cloud environment (NSF XSEDE resource at the Texas Advanced Computing Center) during the second year. These investigations are expected to illuminate the potential as well as the limitations of running facility scale production services in the cloud. The work includes running parallel equivalent cloud-based services to on premises services and includes: data serving via ftp from a large data store, operation of a metadata database, production scale processing of multiple months of geodetic data, web services delivery of quality checked data and products, large-scale compute services for event post-processing, and serving real time data from a network of 700-plus GPS stations. The evaluation is based on a suite of metrics that we have developed to elucidate the effectiveness of cloud-based services in price, performance, and management. Services are currently running in AWS and evaluation is underway.

Sensitivity of soil moisture initialization for decadal predictions under different regional climatic conditions in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khodayar, S.; Sehlinger, A.; Feldmann, H.; Kottmeier, C.

2015-12-01

The impact of soil initialization is investigated through perturbation simulations with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. The focus of the investigation is to assess the sensitivity of simulated extreme periods, dry and wet, to soil moisture initialization in different climatic regions over Europe and to establish the necessary spin up time within the framework of decadal predictions for these regions. Sensitivity experiments consisted of a reference simulation from 1968 to 1999 and 5 simulations from 1972 to 1983. The Effective Drought Index (EDI) is used to select and quantify drought status in the reference run to establish the simulation time period for the sensitivity experiments. Different soil initialization procedures are investigated. The sensitivity of the decadal predictions to soil moisture initial conditions is investigated through the analysis of water cycle components' (WCC) variability. In an episodic time scale the local effects of soil moisture on the boundary-layer and the propagated effects on the large-scale dynamics are analysed. The results show: (a) COSMO-CLM reproduces the observed features of the drought index. (b) Soil moisture initialization exerts a relevant impact on WCC, e.g., precipitation distribution and intensity. (c) Regional characteristics strongly impact the response of the WCC. Precipitation and evapotranspiration deviations are larger for humid regions. (d) The initial soil conditions (wet/dry), the regional characteristics (humid/dry) and the annual period (wet/dry) play a key role in the time that soil needs to restore quasi-equilibrium and the impact on the atmospheric conditions. Humid areas, and for all regions, a humid initialization, exhibit shorter spin up times, also soil reacts more sensitive when initialised during dry periods. (e) The initial soil perturbation may markedly modify atmospheric pressure field, wind circulation systems and atmospheric water vapour distribution affecting atmospheric stability conditions, thus modifying precipitation intensity and distribution even several years after the initialization.

Spatial variability in the trends in extreme storm surges and weekly-scale high water levels in the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soomere, Tarmo; Pindsoo, Katri

2016-03-01

We address the possibilities of a separation of the overall increasing trend in maximum water levels of semi-enclosed water bodies into associated trends in the heights of local storm surges and basin-scale components of the water level based on recorded and modelled local water level time series. The test area is the Baltic Sea. Sequences of strong storms may substantially increase its water volume and raise the average sea level by almost 1 m for a few weeks. Such events are singled out from the water level time series using a weekly-scale average. The trends in the annual maxima of the weekly average have an almost constant value along the entire eastern Baltic Sea coast for averaging intervals longer than 4 days. Their slopes are ~4 cm/decade for 8-day running average and decrease with an increase of the averaging interval. The trends for maxima of local storm surge heights represent almost the entire spatial variability in the water level maxima. Their slopes vary from almost zero for the open Baltic Proper coast up to 5-7 cm/decade in the eastern Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga. This pattern suggests that an increase in wind speed in strong storms is unlikely in this area but storm duration may have increased and wind direction may have rotated.

Effects of Telecoupling on Global Vegetation Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viña, A.; Liu, J.

2016-12-01

With the ever increasing trend in telecoupling processes, such as international trade, all countries around the world are becoming more interdependent. However, the effects of this growing interdependence on vegetation (e.g., shifts in the geographic extent and distribution) remain unknown even though vegetation dynamics are crucially important for food production, carbon sequestration, provision of other ecosystem services, and biodiversity conservation. In this study we evaluate the effects of international trade on the spatio-temporal trajectories of vegetation at national and global scales, using vegetation index imagery collected over more than three decades by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite sensor series together with concurrent national and international data on international trade (and its associated movement of people, goods, services and information). The spatio-temporal trajectories of vegetation are obtained using the scale of fluctuation technique, which is based on the decomposition of the AVHRR image time series to obtain information on its spatial dependence structure over time. Similar to the correlation length, the scale of fluctuation corresponds to the range over which fluctuations in the vegetation index are spatially correlated. Results indicate that global vegetation has changed drastically over the last three decades. These changes are not uniform across space, with hotspots in active trading countries. This study not only has direct implications for understanding global vegetation dynamics, but also sheds important insights on the complexity of human-nature interactions across telecoupled systems.

Reassessing regime shifts in the North Pacific: incremental climate change and commercial fishing are necessary for explaining decadal-scale biological variability.

PubMed

Litzow, Michael A; Mueter, Franz J; Hobday, Alistair J

2014-01-01

In areas of the North Pacific that are largely free of overfishing, climate regime shifts - abrupt changes in modes of low-frequency climate variability - are seen as the dominant drivers of decadal-scale ecological variability. We assessed the ability of leading modes of climate variability [Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA), North Pacific Index (NPI), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] to explain decadal-scale (1965-2008) patterns of climatic and biological variability across two North Pacific ecosystems (Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea). Our response variables were the first principle component (PC1) of four regional climate parameters [sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), freshwater input, ice cover], and PCs 1-2 of 36 biological time series [production or abundance for populations of salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), groundfish, herring (Clupea pallasii), shrimp, and jellyfish]. We found that the climate modes alone could not explain ecological variability in the study region. Both linear models (for climate PC1) and generalized additive models (for biology PC1-2) invoking only the climate modes produced residuals with significant temporal trends, indicating that the models failed to capture coherent patterns of ecological variability. However, when the residual climate trend and a time series of commercial fishery catches were used as additional candidate variables, resulting models of biology PC1-2 satisfied assumptions of independent residuals and out-performed models constructed from the climate modes alone in terms of predictive power. As measured by effect size and Akaike weights, the residual climate trend was the most important variable for explaining biology PC1 variability, and commercial catch the most important variable for biology PC2. Patterns of climate sensitivity and exploitation history for taxa strongly associated with biology PC1-2 suggest plausible mechanistic explanations for these modeling results. Our findings suggest that, even in the absence of overfishing and in areas strongly influenced by internal climate variability, climate regime shift effects can only be understood in the context of other ecosystem perturbations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Characterizing Air Temperature Changes in the Tarim Basin over 1960–2012

PubMed Central

Peng, Dongmei; Wang, Xiujun; Zhao, Chenyi; Wu, Xingren; Jiang, Fengqing; Chen, Pengxiang

2014-01-01

There has been evidence of warming rate varying largely over space and between seasons. However, little has been done to evaluate the spatial and temporal variability of air temperature in the Tarim Basin, northwest China. In this study, we collected daily air temperature from 19 meteorological stations for the period of 1960–2012, and analyzed annual mean temperature (AMT), the annual minimum (Tmin) and maximum temperature (Tmax), and mean temperatures of all twelve months and four seasons and their anomalies. Trend analyses, standard deviation of the detrended anomaly (SDDA) and correlations were carried out to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of various mean air temperatures. Our data showed that increasing trend was much greater in the Tmin (0.55°C/10a) than in the AMT (0.25°C/10a) and Tmax (0.12°C/10a), and the fluctuation followed the same order. There were large spatial variations in the increasing trends of both AMT (from −0.09 to 0.43 °C/10a) and Tmin (from 0.15 to 1.12°C/10a). Correlation analyses indicated that AMT had a significantly linear relationship with Tmin and the mean temperatures of four seasons. There were also pronounced changes in the monthly air temperature from November to March at decadal time scale. The seasonality (i.e., summer and winter difference) of air temperature was stronger during the period of 1960–1979 than over the recent three decades. Our preliminary analyses indicated that local environmental conditions (such as elevation) might be partly responsible for the spatial variability, and large scale climate phenomena might have influences on the temporal variability of air temperature in the Tarim Basin. In particular, there was a significant correlation between index of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and air temperature of May (P = 0.004), and between the index of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and air temperature of July (P = 0.026) over the interannual to decadal time scales. PMID:25375648

Trends in educational inequalities in cause specific mortality in Norway from 1960 to 2010: a turning point for educational inequalities in cause specific mortality of Norwegian men after the millennium?

PubMed

Strand, Bjørn Heine; Steingrímsdóttir, Ólöf Anna; Grøholt, Else-Karin; Ariansen, Inger; Graff-Iversen, Sidsel; Næss, Øyvind

2014-11-24

Educational inequalities in total mortality in Norway have widened during 1960-2000. We wanted to investigate if inequalities have continued to increase in the post millennium decade, and which causes of deaths were the main drivers. All deaths (total and cause specific) in the adult Norwegian population aged 45-74 years over five decades, until 2010 were included; in all 708,449 deaths and over 62 million person years. Two indices of inequalities were used to measure inequality and changes in inequalities over time, on the relative scale (Relative Index of Inequality, RII) and on the absolute scale (Slope Index of Inequality, SII). Relative inequalities in total mortality increased over the five decades in both genders. Among men absolute inequalities stabilized during 2000-2010, after steady, significant increases each decade back to the 1960s, while in women, absolute inequalities continued to increase significantly during the last decade. The stabilization in absolute inequalities among men in the last decade was mostly due to a fall in inequalities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and lung cancer and respiratory disease mortality. Still, in this last decade, the absolute inequalities in cause-specific mortality among men were mostly due to cardiovascular diseases (CVD) (34% of total mortality inequality), lung cancer and respiratory diseases (21%). Among women the absolute inequalities in mortality were mostly due to lung cancer and chronic lower respiratory tract diseases (30%) and CVD (27%). In men, absolute inequalities in mortality have stopped increasing, seemingly due to reduction in inequalities in CVD mortality. Absolute inequality in mortality continues to widen among women, mostly due to death from lung cancer and chronic lung disease. Relative educational inequalities in mortality are still on the rise for Norwegian men and women.

Phase Transitions and Scaling in Systems Far from Equilibrium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Täuber, Uwe C.

2017-03-01

Scaling ideas and renormalization group approaches proved crucial for a deep understanding and classification of critical phenomena in thermal equilibrium. Over the past decades, these powerful conceptual and mathematical tools were extended to continuous phase transitions separating distinct nonequilibrium stationary states in driven classical and quantum systems. In concordance with detailed numerical simulations and laboratory experiments, several prominent dynamical universality classes have emerged that govern large-scale, long-time scaling properties both near and far from thermal equilibrium. These pertain to genuine specific critical points as well as entire parameter space regions for steady states that display generic scale invariance. The exploration of nonstationary relaxation properties and associated physical aging scaling constitutes a complementary potent means to characterize cooperative dynamics in complex out-of-equilibrium systems. This review describes dynamic scaling features through paradigmatic examples that include near-equilibrium critical dynamics, driven lattice gases and growing interfaces, correlation-dominated reaction-diffusion systems, and basic epidemic models.

Decadal time scale variability recorded in the Quelccaya summit ice core δ18O isotopic ratio series and its relation with the sea surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mélice, J. L.; Roucou, P.

The spectral characteristics of the δ18O isotopic ratio time series of the Quelccaya ice cap summit core are investigated with the multi taper method (MTM), the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and the wavelet transform (WT) techniques for the 500 y long 1485-1984 period. The most significant (at the 99.8% level) cycle according to the MTM F-test has a period centered at 14.4 y while the largest variance explaining oscillation according to the SSA technique has a period centered at 12.9 y. The stability over time of these periods is investigated by performing evolutive MTM and SSA on the 500 y long δ18O series with a 100 y wide moving window. It is shown that the cycles with largest amplitude and that the oscillations with largest extracting variance have corresponding periods aggregated around 13.5 y that are very stable over the period between 1485 and 1984. The WT of the same isotopic time series reveals the existence of a main oscillation around 12 y which are also very stable in time. The relation between the isotopic data at Quelccaya and the annual sea surface temperature (SST) field anomalies is then evaluated for the overlapping 1919-1984 period. Significant global correlation and significant coherency at 12.1 y are found between the isotopic series and the annual global sea surface temperature (GSST) series. Moreover, the correlation between the low (over 8 y) frequency component of the isotopic time series and the annual SST field point out significant values in the tropical North Atlantic. This region is characterized by a main SST variability at 12.8 y. The Quelccaya δ18O isotopic ratio series may therefore be considered as a good recorder of the tropical North Atlantic SSTs. This may be explained by the following mechanism: the water vapor amount evaporated by the tropical North Atlantic is function of the SST. So is the water vapor δ18O isotopic ratio. This water vapor is advected during the rainy season by northeast winds and precipitates at the Quelccaya summit with its tropical North Atlantic isotopic signature. It is also suggested from this described stability of the decadal time scale variability observed in the Quelccaya isotopic series, that the decadal time scale GSST variability was also stable during the last five centuries.

Time Series Analysis of Subsidence and Water-Level Data for Aquifer System Characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burbey, T. J.

2012-12-01

The accessibility of high resolution surface displacement data in the form of InSAR, PS-InSAR, GPS, and extensometer data in heavily pumped basins provides diagnostic information that can be used in powerful ways to characterize the hydraulic properties of both confining units and aquifers that water-level data alone cannot accomplish. Land surface deformation signals reflect the elastic and inelastic properties of the heterogeneous aquifer system. These deformation signals can be quite complex and coupled with water level data often exhibit temporal signals at daily, seasonal, and decadal scales resulting from accompanying cyclical pumping patterns. In Las Vegas Valley, for example, cyclical seasonal and daily water-level fluctuations are superimposed on long-term water-level declines. The resulting changes in effective stress have resulted in decades of inelastic land surface lowering with superimposed seasonal elastic deformation signals. In this investigation signal processing of both water level and deformation data was done to filter separate signals at daily, seasonal, and decadal time scales that can be individually evaluated to more accurately estimate the hydraulic properties of the principle aquifer system in the valley that consists of multiple aquifers and confining units. Both elastic and inelastic skeletal specific storage, the horizontal hydraulic conductivity of the aquifers, and the vertical hydraulic conductivity of the confining units can be readily evaluated in this manner. The results compare favorably with the parameters calculated from a complex one-dimensional numerical compaction model. The advantage of the time series approach is that a more thorough description of the system can be made and the analytical approach is far simpler than constructing and calibrating a numerical model.

Robust multiscale prediction of Po River discharge using a twofold AR-NN approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessio, Silvia; Taricco, Carla; Rubinetti, Sara; Zanchettin, Davide; Rubino, Angelo; Mancuso, Salvatore

2017-04-01

The Mediterranean area is among the regions most exposed to hydroclimatic changes, with a likely increase of frequency and duration of droughts in the last decades and potentially substantial future drying according to climate projections. However, significant decadal variability is often superposed or even dominates these long-term hydrological trend as observed, for instance, in North Italian precipitation and river discharge records. The capability to accurately predict such decadal changes is, therefore, of utmost environmental and social importance. In order to forecast short and noisy hydroclimatic time series, we apply a twofold statistical approach that we improved with respect to previous works [1]. Our prediction strategy consists in the application of two independent methods that use autoregressive models and feed-forward neural networks. Since all prediction methods work better on clean signals, the predictions are not performed directly on the series, but rather on each significant variability components extracted with Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). In this contribution, we will illustrate the multiscale prediction approach and its application to the case of decadal prediction of annual-average Po River discharges (Italy). The discharge record is available for the last 209 years and allows to work with both interannual and decadal time-scale components. Fifteen-year forecasts obtained with both methods robustly indicate a prominent dry period in the second half of the 2020s. We will discuss advantages and limitations of the proposed statistical approach in the light of the current capabilities of decadal climate prediction systems based on numerical climate models, toward an integrated dynamical and statistical approach for the interannual-to-decadal prediction of hydroclimate variability in medium-size river basins. [1] Alessio et. al., Natural variability and anthropogenic effects in a Central Mediterranean core, Clim. of the Past, 8, 831-839, 2012.

Decadal Modulation of Repeating Slow Slip Event Activity in the Southwestern Ryukyu Arc Possibly Driven by Rifting Episodes at the Okinawa Trough

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tu, Yoko; Heki, Kosuke

2017-09-01

We studied 38 slow slip events (SSEs) in 1997-2016 beneath the Iriomote Island, southwestern Ryukyu Arc, Japan, using continuous Global Navigation Satellite Systems data. These SSEs occur biannually on the same fault patch at a depth of 30 km on the subducting Philippine Sea Plate slab with average moment magnitudes (Mw) of 6.6. Here we show that the slip accumulation rate (cumulative slip/lapse time) of these SSEs fluctuated over a decadal time scale. The rate increased twice around 2002 and 2013 concurrently with earthquake swarms in the Okinawa Trough. This suggests that episodic activations of the back-arc spreading at the Okinawa Trough caused extra southward movement of the block south of the trough and accelerated convergence at the Ryukyu Trench.

Challenges in scaling NLO generators to leadership computers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benjamin, D.; Childers, JT; Hoeche, S.; LeCompte, T.; Uram, T.

2017-10-01

Exascale computing resources are roughly a decade away and will be capable of 100 times more computing than current supercomputers. In the last year, Energy Frontier experiments crossed a milestone of 100 million core-hours used at the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility, Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility, and NERSC. The Fortran-based leading-order parton generator called Alpgen was successfully scaled to millions of threads to achieve this level of usage on Mira. Sherpa and MadGraph are next-to-leading order generators used heavily by LHC experiments for simulation. Integration times for high-multiplicity or rare processes can take a week or more on standard Grid machines, even using all 16-cores. We will describe our ongoing work to scale the Sherpa generator to thousands of threads on leadership-class machines and reduce run-times to less than a day. This work allows the experiments to leverage large-scale parallel supercomputers for event generation today, freeing tens of millions of grid hours for other work, and paving the way for future applications (simulation, reconstruction) on these and future supercomputers.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Collins, William D; Johansen, Hans; Evans, Katherine J

We present a survey of physical and computational techniques that have the potential to con- tribute to the next generation of high-fidelity, multi-scale climate simulations. Examples of the climate science problems that can be investigated with more depth include the capture of remote forcings of localized hydrological extreme events, an accurate representation of cloud features over a range of spatial and temporal scales, and parallel, large ensembles of simulations to more effectively explore model sensitivities and uncertainties. Numerical techniques, such as adaptive mesh refinement, implicit time integration, and separate treatment of fast physical time scales are enabling improved accuracy andmore » fidelity in simulation of dynamics and allow more complete representations of climate features at the global scale. At the same time, part- nerships with computer science teams have focused on taking advantage of evolving computer architectures, such as many-core processors and GPUs, so that these approaches which were previously considered prohibitively costly have become both more efficient and scalable. In combination, progress in these three critical areas is poised to transform climate modeling in the coming decades.« less

"Two's up and Poncing Fags": Young Women's Smoking Practices, Reciprocity and Friendship

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cullen, Fin

2010-01-01

Over the past decade much has been written by journalists, policy makers, and academics, about young women's leisure time pursuits. A great deal of this interest has focused around a concern that teenage girls in the UK are taking up smoking in larger numbers than their male peers. This paper draws on findings from my small-scale doctoral research…

From macro-scale to micro-scale computational anatomy: a perspective on the next 20 years.

PubMed

Mori, Kensaku

2016-10-01

This paper gives our perspective on the next two decades of computational anatomy, which has made great strides in the recognition and understanding of human anatomy from conventional clinical images. The results from this field are now used in a variety of medical applications, including quantitative analysis of organ shapes, interventional assistance, surgical navigation, and population analysis. Several anatomical models have also been used in computational anatomy, and these mainly target millimeter-scale shapes. For example, liver-shape models are almost completely modeled at the millimeter scale, and shape variations are described at such scales. Most clinical 3D scanning devices have had just under 1 or 0.5 mm per voxel resolution for over 25 years, and this resolution has not changed drastically in that time. Although Z-axis (head-to-tail direction) resolution has been drastically improved by the introduction of multi-detector CT scanning devices, in-plane resolutions have not changed very much either. When we look at human anatomy, we can see different anatomical structures at different scales. For example, pulmonary blood vessels and lung lobes can be observed in millimeter-scale images. If we take 10-µm-scale images of a lung specimen, the alveoli and bronchiole regions can be located in them. Most work in millimeter-scale computational anatomy has been done by the medical-image analysis community. In the next two decades, we encourage our community to focus on micro-scale computational anatomy. In this perspective paper, we briefly review the achievements of computational anatomy and its impacts on clinical applications; furthermore, we show several possibilities from the viewpoint of microscopic computational anatomy by discussing experimental results from our recent research activities. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Methods for evaluating temporal groundwater quality data and results of decadal-scale changes in chloride, dissolved solids, and nitrate concentrations in groundwater in the United States, 1988-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindsey, Bruce D.; Rupert, Michael G.

2012-01-01

Decadal-scale changes in groundwater quality were evaluated by the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program. Samples of groundwater collected from wells during 1988-2000 - a first sampling event representing the decade ending the 20th century - were compared on a pair-wise basis to samples from the same wells collected during 2001-2010 - a second sampling event representing the decade beginning the 21st century. The data set consists of samples from 1,236 wells in 56 well networks, representing major aquifers and urban and agricultural land-use areas, with analytical results for chloride, dissolved solids, and nitrate. Statistical analysis was done on a network basis rather than by individual wells. Although spanning slightly more or less than a 10-year period, the two-sample comparison between the first and second sampling events is referred to as an analysis of decadal-scale change based on a step-trend analysis. The 22 principal aquifers represented by these 56 networks account for nearly 80 percent of the estimated withdrawals of groundwater used for drinking-water supply in the Nation. Well networks where decadal-scale changes in concentrations were statistically significant were identified using the Wilcoxon-Pratt signed-rank test. For the statistical analysis of chloride, dissolved solids, and nitrate concentrations at the network level, more than half revealed no statistically significant change over the decadal period. However, for networks that had statistically significant changes, increased concentrations outnumbered decreased concentrations by a large margin. Statistically significant increases of chloride concentrations were identified for 43 percent of 56 networks. Dissolved solids concentrations increased significantly in 41 percent of the 54 networks with dissolved solids data, and nitrate concentrations increased significantly in 23 percent of 56 networks. At least one of the three - chloride, dissolved solids, or nitrate - had a statistically significant increase in concentration in 66 percent of the networks. Statistically significant decreases in concentrations were identified in 4 percent of the networks for chloride, 2 percent of the networks for dissolved solids, and 9 percent of the networks for nitrate. A larger percentage of urban land-use networks had statistically significant increases in chloride, dissolved solids, and nitrate concentrations than agricultural land-use networks. In order to assess the magnitude of statistically significant changes, the median of the differences between constituent concentrations from the first full-network sampling event and those from the second full-network sampling event was calculated using the Turnbull method. The largest median decadal increases in chloride concentrations were in networks in the Upper Illinois River Basin (67 mg/L) and in the New England Coastal Basins (34 mg/L), whereas the largest median decadal decrease in chloride concentrations was in the Upper Snake River Basin (1 mg/L). The largest median decadal increases in dissolved solids concentrations were in networks in the Rio Grande Valley (260 mg/L) and the Upper Illinois River Basin (160 mg/L). The largest median decadal decrease in dissolved solids concentrations was in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin (6.0 mg/L). The largest median decadal increases in nitrate as nitrogen (N) concentrations were in networks in the South Platte River Basin (2.0 mg/L as N) and the San Joaquin-Tulare Basins (1.0 mg/L as N). The largest median decadal decrease in nitrate concentrations was in the Santee River Basin and Coastal Drainages (0.63 mg/L). The magnitude of change in networks with statistically significant increases typically was much larger than the magnitude of change in networks with statistically significant decreases. The magnitude of change was greatest for chloride in the urban land-use networks and greatest for dissolved solids and nitrate in the agricultural land-use networks. Analysis of data from all networks combined indicated statistically significant increases for chloride, dissolved solids, and nitrate. Although chloride, dissolved solids, and nitrate concentrations were typically less than the drinking-water standards and guidelines, a statistical test was used to determine whether or not the proportion of samples exceeding the drinking-water standard or guideline changed significantly between the first and second full-network sampling events. The proportion of samples exceeding the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Secondary Maximum Contaminant Level for dissolved solids (500 milligrams per liter) increased significantly between the first and second full-network sampling events when evaluating all networks combined at the national level. Also, for all networks combined, the proportion of samples exceeding the USEPA Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) of 10 mg/L as N for nitrate increased significantly. One network in the Delmarva Peninsula had a significant increase in the proportion of samples exceeding the MCL for nitrate. A subset of 261 wells was sampled every other year (biennially) to evaluate decadal-scale changes using a time-series analysis. The analysis of the biennial data set showed that changes were generally similar to the findings from the analysis of decadal-scale change that was based on a step-trend analysis. Because of the small number of wells in a network with biennial data (typically 4-5 wells), the time-series analysis is more useful for understanding water-quality responses to changes in site-specific conditions rather than as an indicator of the change for the entire network.

Impact of Desiccation of Aral Sea on the Regional Climate of Central Asia Using WRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Ashish; Huang, Huei-Ping; Zavialov, Peter; Khan, Valentina

2018-01-01

This study explores the impacts of the desiccation of the Aral Sea and large-scale climate change on the regional climate of Central Asia in the post-1960 era. A series of climate downscaling experiments for the 1960's and 2000's decades were performed using the Weather Research and Forecast model at 12-km horizontal resolution. To quantify the impacts of the changing surface boundary condition, a set of simulations with an identical lateral boundary condition but different extents of the Aral Sea were performed. It was found that the desiccation of the Aral Sea leads to more snow (and less rain) as desiccated winter surface is relatively much colder than water surface. In summer, desiccation led to substantial warming over the Aral Sea. These impacts were largely confined to within the area covered by the former Aral Sea and its immediate vicinity, although desiccation of the Sea also led to minor cooling over the greater Central Asia in winter. A contrasting set of simulations with an identical surface boundary condition but different lateral boundary conditions produced more identifiable changes in regional climate over the greater Central Asia which was characterized by a warming trend in both winter and summer. Simulations also showed that while the desiccation of the Aral Sea has significant impacts on the local climate over the Sea, the climate over the greater Central Asia on inter-decadal time scale was more strongly influenced by the continental or global-scale climate change on that time scale.

Supernova Science with an Advanced Compton Telescope

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-12-04

Older SNRs must be galactic, but the emission can be detected on decadal- millenial time-scales. SNR studies thus concentrate upon 57Co(122 keV), 22Na...early and is a probe of the mass overlying the outermost 56Ni- rich ejecta. The 847 keV line peaks later (at which time the ejecta for most models has... rich super-luminous SNe Ia will be detected to the largest distances, but the larger SN rate of normally-luminous SNe Ia make them the most frequently

Atmospheric River Characteristics under Decadal Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Done, J.; Ge, M.

2017-12-01

How does decadal climate variability change the nature and predictability of atmospheric river events? Decadal swings in atmospheric river frequency, or shifts in the proportion of precipitation falling as rain, could challenge current water resource and flood risk management practice. Physical multi-scale processes operating between Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric rivers over the Western U.S. are explored using the global Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). A 45km global mesh is refined over the Western U.S. to 12km to capture the major terrain effects on precipitation. The performance of the MPAS is first evaluated for a case study atmospheric river event over California. Atmospheric river characteristics are then compared in a pair of idealized simulations, each driven by Pacific SST patterns characteristic of opposite phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Given recent evidence that we have entered a positive phase of the IPO, implications for current reservoir management practice over the next decade will be discussed. This work contributes to the NSF-funded project UDECIDE (Understanding Decision-Climate Interactions on Decadal Scales). UDECIDE brings together practitioners, engineers, statisticians, and climate scientists to understand the role of decadal climate information for water management and decisions.

An efficient and reliable predictive method for fluidized bed simulation

DOE PAGES

Lu, Liqiang; Benyahia, Sofiane; Li, Tingwen

2017-06-13

In past decades, the continuum approach was the only practical technique to simulate large-scale fluidized bed reactors because discrete approaches suffer from the cost of tracking huge numbers of particles and their collisions. This study significantly improved the computation speed of discrete particle methods in two steps: First, the time-driven hard-sphere (TDHS) algorithm with a larger time-step is proposed allowing a speedup of 20-60 times; second, the number of tracked particles is reduced by adopting the coarse-graining technique gaining an additional 2-3 orders of magnitude speedup of the simulations. A new velocity correction term was introduced and validated in TDHSmore » to solve the over-packing issue in dense granular flow. The TDHS was then coupled with the coarse-graining technique to simulate a pilot-scale riser. The simulation results compared well with experiment data and proved that this new approach can be used for efficient and reliable simulations of large-scale fluidized bed systems.« less

Past and future changes in streamflow in the U.S. Midwest: Bridging across time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villarini, G.; Slater, L. J.; Salvi, K. A.

2017-12-01

Streamflows have increased notably across the U.S. Midwest over the past century, principally due to changes in precipitation and land use / land cover. Improving our understanding of the physical drivers that are responsible for the observed changes in discharge may enhance our capability of predicting and projecting these changes, and may have large implications for water resources management over this area. This study will highlight our efforts towards the statistical attribution of changes in discharge across the U.S. Midwest, with analyses performed at the seasonal scale from low to high flows. The main drivers of changing streamflows that we focus on are: urbanization, agricultural land cover, basin-averaged temperature, basin-averaged precipitation, and antecedent soil moisture. Building on the insights from this attribution, we will examine the potential predictability of streamflow across different time scales, with lead times ranging from seasonal to decadal, and discuss a potential path forward for engineering design for future conditions.

An efficient and reliable predictive method for fluidized bed simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Liqiang; Benyahia, Sofiane; Li, Tingwen

2017-06-29

In past decades, the continuum approach was the only practical technique to simulate large-scale fluidized bed reactors because discrete approaches suffer from the cost of tracking huge numbers of particles and their collisions. This study significantly improved the computation speed of discrete particle methods in two steps: First, the time-driven hard-sphere (TDHS) algorithm with a larger time-step is proposed allowing a speedup of 20-60 times; second, the number of tracked particles is reduced by adopting the coarse-graining technique gaining an additional 2-3 orders of magnitude speedup of the simulations. A new velocity correction term was introduced and validated in TDHSmore » to solve the over-packing issue in dense granular flow. The TDHS was then coupled with the coarse-graining technique to simulate a pilot-scale riser. The simulation results compared well with experiment data and proved that this new approach can be used for efficient and reliable simulations of large-scale fluidized bed systems.« less

The timing of sediment transport down Monterey Submarine Canyon, offshore California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stevens, Thomas; Paull, Charles K.; Ussler, William III; McGann, Mary; Buylaert, Jan-Pieter; Lundsten, Eve M.

2013-01-01

While submarine canyons are the major conduits through which sediments are transported from the continents out into the deep sea, the time it takes for sediment to pass down through a submarine canyon system is poorly constrained. Here we report on the first study to couple optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages of quartz sand deposits and accelerator mass spectrometry 14C ages measured on benthic foraminifera to examine the timing of sediment transport through the axial channel of Monterey Submarine Canyon and Fan, offshore California. The OSL ages date the timing of sediment entry into the canyon head while the 14C ages of benthic foraminifera record the deposition of hemipelagic sediments that bound the sand horizons. We use both single-grain and small (∼2 mm area) single-aliquot regeneration approaches on vibracore samples from fining-upward sequences at various water depths to demonstrate relatively rapid, decadal-scale sand transport to at least 1.1 km depth and more variable decadal- to millennial-scale transport to a least 3.5 km depth on the fan. Significant differences between the time sand was last exposed at the canyon head (OSL age) and the timing of deposition of the sand (from 14C ages of benthic foraminifera in bracketing hemipelagic sediments) are interpreted as indicating that the sand does not pass through the entire canyon instantly in large individual events, but rather moves multiple times before emerging onto the fan. The increased spread in single-grain OSL dates with water depth provides evidence of mixing and temporary storage of sediment as it moves through the canyon system. The ages also indicate that the frequency of sediment transport events decreases with distance down the canyon channel system. The amalgamated sands near the canyon head yield OSL ages that are consistent with a sub-decadal recurrence frequency while the fining-upward sand sequences on the fan indicate that the channel is still experiencing events with a 150–250 year recurrence frequency out to 3.5 km water depths.    

Continuing upward trend in Mt Read Huon pine ring widths - Temperature or divergence?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, K. J.; Cook, E. R.; Buckley, B. M.; Larsen, S. H.; Drew, D. M.; Downes, G. M.; Francey, R. J.; Peterson, M. J.; Baker, P. J.

2014-10-01

To date, no attempt has been made to assess the presence or otherwise of the “Divergence Problem” (DP) in existing multi-millennial Southern Hemisphere tree-ring chronologies. We have updated the iconic Mt Read Huon pine chronology from Tasmania, southeastern Australia, to now include the warmest decade on record, AD 2000-2010, and used the Kalman Filter (KF) to examine it for signs of divergence against four different temperature series available for the region. Ring-width growth for the past two decades is statistically unprecedented for the past 1048 years. Although we have identified a decoupling between temperature and growth in the past two decades, the relationship between some of the temperature records and growth has varied over time since the start of instrumental records. Rather than the special case of ‘divergence', we have identified a more general time-dependence between growth and temperature over the last 100 years. This time-dependence appears particularly problematic at interdecadal time scales. Due to the time-dependent relationships, and uncertainties related to the climate data, the use of any of the individual temperature series examined here potentially complicates temperature reconstruction. Some of the uncertainty in the climate data may be associated with changing climatic conditions, such as the intensification of the sub-tropical ridge (STR) and its impact on the frequency of anticyclonic conditions over the Mt Read site. Increased growth at the site, particularly in the last decade, over and above what would be expected based on a linear temperature model alone, may be consistent with a number of hypotheses. Existing uncertainties in the climate data need to be resolved and independent physiological information obtained before a range of hypotheses for this increased growth can be effectively evaluated.

Searching for forcing signatures in decadal patterns of shoreline change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burningham, H.; French, J.

2016-12-01

Analysis of shoreline position at spatial scales of the order 10 - 100 km and at a multi-decadal time-scale has the potential to reveal regional coherence (or lack of) in the primary controls on shoreline tendencies and trends. Such information is extremely valuable for the evaluation of climate forcing on coastal behaviour. Segmenting a coast into discrete behaviour units based on these types of analyses is often subjective, however, and in the context of pervasive human interventions and alongshore variability in ocean climate, determining the most important controls on shoreline dynamics can be challenging. Multivariate analyses provide one means to resolve common behaviours across shoreline position datasets, thereby underpinning a more objective evaluation of possible coupling between shorelines at different scales. In an analysis of the Suffolk coast (eastern England) we explore the use of multivariate statistics to understand and classify mesoscale coastal behaviour. Suffolk comprises a relatively linear shoreline that shifts from east-facing in the north to southeast-facing in the south. Although primarily formed of a beach foreshore backed by cliffs or shingle barrier, the shoreline is punctuated at 3 locations by narrow tidal inlets with offset entrances that imply a persistent north to south sediment transport direction. Tidal regime decreases south to north from mesotidal (3.6m STR) to microtidal (1.9m STR), and the bimodal wave climate (northeast and southwest modes) presents complex local-scale variability in nearshore conditions. Shorelines exhibit a range of decadal behaviours from rapid erosion (up to 4m/yr) to quasi-stability that cannot be directly explained by the spatial organisation of contemporary landforms or coastal defences. A multivariate statistical approach to shoreline change analysis helps to define the key modes of change and determine the most likely forcing factors.

Changing climate shifts timing of European floods.

PubMed

Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A P; Merz, Bruno; Arheimer, Berit; Aronica, Giuseppe T; Bilibashi, Ardian; Bonacci, Ognjen; Borga, Marco; Čanjevac, Ivan; Castellarin, Attilio; Chirico, Giovanni B; Claps, Pierluigi; Fiala, Károly; Frolova, Natalia; Gorbachova, Liudmyla; Gül, Ali; Hannaford, Jamie; Harrigan, Shaun; Kireeva, Maria; Kiss, Andrea; Kjeldsen, Thomas R; Kohnová, Silvia; Koskela, Jarkko J; Ledvinka, Ondrej; Macdonald, Neil; Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria; Mediero, Luis; Merz, Ralf; Molnar, Peter; Montanari, Alberto; Murphy, Conor; Osuch, Marzena; Ovcharuk, Valeryia; Radevski, Ivan; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José L; Sauquet, Eric; Šraj, Mojca; Szolgay, Jan; Viglione, Alberto; Volpi, Elena; Wilson, Donna; Zaimi, Klodian; Živković, Nenad

2017-08-11

A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

Decoding the spatial signatures of multi-scale climate variability - a climate network perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donner, R. V.; Jajcay, N.; Wiedermann, M.; Ekhtiari, N.; Palus, M.

2017-12-01

During the last years, the application of complex networks as a versatile tool for analyzing complex spatio-temporal data has gained increasing interest. Establishing this approach as a new paradigm in climatology has already provided valuable insights into key spatio-temporal climate variability patterns across scales, including novel perspectives on the dynamics of the El Nino Southern Oscillation or the emergence of extreme precipitation patterns in monsoonal regions. In this work, we report first attempts to employ network analysis for disentangling multi-scale climate variability. Specifically, we introduce the concept of scale-specific climate networks, which comprises a sequence of networks representing the statistical association structure between variations at distinct time scales. For this purpose, we consider global surface air temperature reanalysis data and subject the corresponding time series at each grid point to a complex-valued continuous wavelet transform. From this time-scale decomposition, we obtain three types of signals per grid point and scale - amplitude, phase and reconstructed signal, the statistical similarity of which is then represented by three complex networks associated with each scale. We provide a detailed analysis of the resulting connectivity patterns reflecting the spatial organization of climate variability at each chosen time-scale. Global network characteristics like transitivity or network entropy are shown to provide a new view on the (global average) relevance of different time scales in climate dynamics. Beyond expected trends originating from the increasing smoothness of fluctuations at longer scales, network-based statistics reveal different degrees of fragmentation of spatial co-variability patterns at different scales and zonal shifts among the key players of climate variability from tropically to extra-tropically dominated patterns when moving from inter-annual to decadal scales and beyond. The obtained results demonstrate the potential usefulness of systematically exploiting scale-specific climate networks, whose general patterns are in line with existing climatological knowledge, but provide vast opportunities for further quantifications at local, regional and global scales that are yet to be explored.

Paleoclimate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartlein, Patrick J.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Alder, Jay R.; Ohring, G.

2014-01-01

As host to one of the major continental-scale ice sheets, and with considerable spatial variability of climate related to its physiography and location, North America has experienced a wide range of climates over time. The aim of this chapter is to review the history of those climate variations, focusing in particular on the continental-scale climatic variations between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 21,000 years ago or 21 ka) and the present, which were as large in amplitude as any experienced over a similar time span during the past several million years. As background to that discussion, the climatic variations over the Cenozoic (the past 65.5 Myr, or 65.5 Ma to present) that led ultimately to the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation at 2.59 Ma will also be discussed. Superimposed on the large-amplitude, broad-scale variations from the LGM to present, are climatic variations on millennial-to-decadal scales, and these will be reviewed in particular for the Holocene (11.7 ka to present) and the past millennium.

Coral Luminescence Identifies the Pacific Decadal Oscillation as a Primary Driver of River Runoff Variability Impacting the Southern Great Barrier Reef

PubMed Central

Rodriguez-Ramirez, Alberto; Grove, Craig A.; Zinke, Jens; Pandolfi, John M.; Zhao, Jian-xin

2014-01-01

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a large-scale climatic phenomenon modulating ocean-atmosphere variability on decadal time scales. While precipitation and river flow variability in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments are sensitive to PDO phases, the extent to which the PDO influences coral reefs is poorly understood. Here, six Porites coral cores were used to produce a composite record of coral luminescence variability (runoff proxy) and identify drivers of terrestrial influence on the Keppel reefs, southern GBR. We found that coral skeletal luminescence effectively captured seasonal, inter-annual and decadal variability of river discharge and rainfall from the Fitzroy River catchment. Most importantly, although the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was evident in the luminescence records, the variability in the coral luminescence composite record was significantly explained by the PDO. Negative luminescence anomalies (reduced runoff) were associated with El Niño years during positive PDO phases while positive luminescence anomalies (increased runoff) coincided with strong/moderate La Niña years during negative PDO phases. This study provides clear evidence that not only ENSO but also the PDO have significantly affected runoff regimes at the Keppel reefs for at least a century, and suggests that upcoming hydrological disturbances and ecological responses in the southern GBR region will be mediated by the future evolution of these sources of climate variability. PMID:24416214

Coral luminescence identifies the Pacific Decadal Oscillation as a primary driver of river runoff variability impacting the southern Great Barrier Reef.

PubMed

Rodriguez-Ramirez, Alberto; Grove, Craig A; Zinke, Jens; Pandolfi, John M; Zhao, Jian-xin

2014-01-01

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a large-scale climatic phenomenon modulating ocean-atmosphere variability on decadal time scales. While precipitation and river flow variability in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments are sensitive to PDO phases, the extent to which the PDO influences coral reefs is poorly understood. Here, six Porites coral cores were used to produce a composite record of coral luminescence variability (runoff proxy) and identify drivers of terrestrial influence on the Keppel reefs, southern GBR. We found that coral skeletal luminescence effectively captured seasonal, inter-annual and decadal variability of river discharge and rainfall from the Fitzroy River catchment. Most importantly, although the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was evident in the luminescence records, the variability in the coral luminescence composite record was significantly explained by the PDO. Negative luminescence anomalies (reduced runoff) were associated with El Niño years during positive PDO phases while positive luminescence anomalies (increased runoff) coincided with strong/moderate La Niña years during negative PDO phases. This study provides clear evidence that not only ENSO but also the PDO have significantly affected runoff regimes at the Keppel reefs for at least a century, and suggests that upcoming hydrological disturbances and ecological responses in the southern GBR region will be mediated by the future evolution of these sources of climate variability.

Centennial-scale fluctuations and regional complexity characterize Pacific salmon population dynamics over the past five centuries.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Schindler, Daniel E; Lisi, Peter J; Holtgrieve, Gordon W; Leavitt, Peter R; Bunting, Lynda; Finney, Bruce P; Selbie, Daniel T; Chen, Guangjie; Gregory-Eaves, Irene; Lisac, Mark J; Walsh, Patrick B

2013-01-29

Observational data from the past century have highlighted the importance of interdecadal modes of variability in fish population dynamics, but how these patterns of variation fit into a broader temporal and spatial context remains largely unknown. We analyzed time series of stable nitrogen isotopes from the sediments of 20 sockeye salmon nursery lakes across western Alaska to characterize temporal and spatial patterns in salmon abundance over the past ∼500 y. Although some stocks varied on interdecadal time scales (30- to 80-y cycles), centennial-scale variation, undetectable in modern-day catch records and survey data, has dominated salmon population dynamics over the past 500 y. Before 1900, variation in abundance was clearly not synchronous among stocks, and the only temporal signal common to lake sediment records from this region was the onset of commercial fishing in the late 1800s. Thus, historical changes in climate did not synchronize stock dynamics over centennial time scales, emphasizing that ecosystem complexity can produce a diversity of ecological responses to regional climate forcing. Our results show that marine fish populations may alternate between naturally driven periods of high and low abundance over time scales of decades to centuries and suggest that management models that assume time-invariant productivity or carrying capacity parameters may be poor representations of the biological reality in these systems.

Centennial-scale fluctuations and regional complexity characterize Pacific salmon population dynamics over the past five centuries

PubMed Central

Rogers, Lauren A.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Lisi, Peter J.; Holtgrieve, Gordon W.; Leavitt, Peter R.; Bunting, Lynda; Finney, Bruce P.; Selbie, Daniel T.; Chen, Guangjie; Gregory-Eaves, Irene; Lisac, Mark J.; Walsh, Patrick B.

2013-01-01

Observational data from the past century have highlighted the importance of interdecadal modes of variability in fish population dynamics, but how these patterns of variation fit into a broader temporal and spatial context remains largely unknown. We analyzed time series of stable nitrogen isotopes from the sediments of 20 sockeye salmon nursery lakes across western Alaska to characterize temporal and spatial patterns in salmon abundance over the past ∼500 y. Although some stocks varied on interdecadal time scales (30- to 80-y cycles), centennial-scale variation, undetectable in modern-day catch records and survey data, has dominated salmon population dynamics over the past 500 y. Before 1900, variation in abundance was clearly not synchronous among stocks, and the only temporal signal common to lake sediment records from this region was the onset of commercial fishing in the late 1800s. Thus, historical changes in climate did not synchronize stock dynamics over centennial time scales, emphasizing that ecosystem complexity can produce a diversity of ecological responses to regional climate forcing. Our results show that marine fish populations may alternate between naturally driven periods of high and low abundance over time scales of decades to centuries and suggest that management models that assume time-invariant productivity or carrying capacity parameters may be poor representations of the biological reality in these systems. PMID:23322737

Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate: Assessing Current Predictive Knowledge and Capabilities, User Requirements and Research Priorities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried

2011-01-01

Drought is fundamentally the result of an extended period of reduced precipitation lasting anywhere from a few weeks to decades and even longer. As such, addressing drought predictability and prediction in a changing climate requires foremost that we make progress on the ability to predict precipitation anomalies on subseasonal and longer time scales. From the perspective of the users of drought forecasts and information, drought is however most directly viewed through its impacts (e.g., on soil moisture, streamflow, crop yields). As such, the question of the predictability of drought must extend to those quantities as well. In order to make progress on these issues, the WCRP drought information group (DIG), with the support of WCRP, the Catalan Institute of Climate Sciences, the La Caixa Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Science Foundation, has organized a workshop to focus on: 1. User requirements for drought prediction information on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 2. Current understanding of the mechanisms and predictability of drought on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 3. Current drought prediction/projection capabilities on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales 4. Advancing regional drought prediction capabilities for variables and scales most relevant to user needs on sub-seasonal to centennial time scales. This introductory talk provides an overview of these goals, and outlines the occurrence and mechanisms of drought world-wide.

Conference Summary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanders, David B.

2014-07-01

This conference on ``Multi-wavelength AGN Surveys and Studies'' has provided a detailed look at the explosive growth over the past decade, of available astronomical data from a growing list of large scale sky surveys, from radio-to-gamma rays. We are entering an era were multi-epoch (months to weeks) surveys of the entire sky, and near-instantaneous follow-up observations of variable sources, are elevating time-domain astronomy to where it is becoming a major contributor to our understanding of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN). While we can marvel at the range of extragalactic phenomena dispayed by sources discovered in the original ``Markarian Survey'' - the first large-scale objective prism survey of the Northern Sky carried out at the Byurakan Astronomical Observtory almost a half-century ago - it is clear from the talks and posters presented at this meeting that the data to be be obtained over the next decade will be needed if we are to finally understand which phase of galaxy evolution each Markarian Galaxy represents.

Analysis of Decadal Vegetation Dynamics Using Multi-Scale Satellite Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, Y.; Chen, K.

2013-12-01

This study aims at quantifying vegetation fractional cover (VFC) by incorporating multi-resolution satellite images, including Formosat-2(RSI), SPOT(HRV/HRG), Landsat (MSS/TM) and Terra/Aqua(MODIS), to investigate long-term and seasonal vegetation dynamics in Taiwan. We used 40-year NDVI records for derivation of VFC, with field campaigns routinely conducted to calibrate the critical NDVI threshold. Given different sensor capabilities in terms of their spatial and spectral properties, translation and infusion of NDVIs was used to assure NDVI coherence and to determine the fraction of vegetation cover at different spatio-temporal scales. Based on the proposed method, a bimodal sequence of intra-annual VFC which corresponds to the dual-cropping agriculture pattern was observed. Compared to seasonal VFC variation (78~90%), decadal VFC reveals moderate oscillations (81~86%), which were strongly linked with landuse changes and several major disturbances. This time-series mapping of VFC can be used to examine vegetation dynamics and its response associated with short-term and long-term anthropogenic/natural events.

Decadal-scale changes of nitrate in ground water of the United States, 1988-2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rupert, Michael G.

2008-01-01

This study evaluated decadal-scale changes of nitrate concentrations in groundwater samples collected by the USGS National Water-Quality Assessment Program from 495 wells in 24 well networks across the USA in predominantly agricultural areas. Each well network was sampled once during 1988-1995 and resampled once during 2000-2004. Statistical tests of decadal-scale changes of nitrate concentrations in water from all 495 wells combined indicate there is a significant increase in nitrate concentrations in the data set as a whole. Eight out of the 24 well networks, or about 33%, had significant changes of nitrate concentrations. Of the eight well networks with significant decadal-scale changes of nitrate, all except one, the Willamette Valley of Oregon, had increasing nitrate concentrations. Median nitrate concentrations of three of those eight well networks increased above the USEPA maximum contaminant level of 10 mg L-1. Nitrate in water from wells with reduced conditions had significantly smaller decadal-scale changes in nitrate concentrations than oxidized and mixed waters. A subset of wells had data on ground water recharge date; nitrate concentrations increased in response to the increase of N fertilizer use since about 1950. Determining ground water recharge dates is an important component of a ground water trends investigation because recharge dates provide a link between changes in ground water quality and changes in land-use practices. Copyright ?? 2008 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Information transfer across the scales of climate data variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palus, Milan; Jajcay, Nikola; Hartman, David; Hlinka, Jaroslav

2015-04-01

Multitude of scales characteristic of the climate system variability requires innovative approaches in analysis of instrumental time series. We present a methodology which starts with a wavelet decomposition of a multi-scale signal into quasi-oscillatory modes of a limited band-with, described using their instantaneous phases and amplitudes. Then their statistical associations are tested in order to search for interactions across time scales. In particular, an information-theoretic formulation of the generalized, nonlinear Granger causality is applied together with surrogate data testing methods [1]. The method [2] uncovers causal influence (in the Granger sense) and information transfer from large-scale modes of climate variability with characteristic time scales from years to almost a decade to regional temperature variability on short time scales. In analyses of daily mean surface air temperature from various European locations an information transfer from larger to smaller scales has been observed as the influence of the phase of slow oscillatory phenomena with periods around 7-8 years on amplitudes of the variability characterized by smaller temporal scales from a few months to annual and quasi-biennial scales [3]. In sea surface temperature data from the tropical Pacific area an influence of quasi-oscillatory phenomena with periods around 4-6 years on the variability on and near the annual scale has been observed. This study is supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic within the Program KONTAKT II, Project No. LH14001. [1] M. Palus, M. Vejmelka, Phys. Rev. E 75, 056211 (2007) [2] M. Palus, Entropy 16(10), 5263-5289 (2014) [3] M. Palus, Phys. Rev. Lett. 112, 078702 (2014)

Dynamics of behavioral organization and its alteration in major depression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, Toru; Kiyono, Ken; Yoshiuchi, Kazuhiro; Nakahara, Rika; Struzik, Zbigniew R.; Yamamoto, Yoshiharu

2007-07-01

We describe the nature of human behavioral organization, specifically how resting and active periods are interwoven throughout daily life. Active period durations with physical activity counts successively above a predefined threshold follow a stretched exponential (gamma-type) cumulative distribution with characteristic time, both in healthy individuals and in patients with major depressive disorder. On the contrary, resting period durations below the threshold for both groups obey a scale free power law cumulative distribution over two decades, with significantly lower scaling exponents in the patients. We thus find underlying robust laws governing human behavioral organization, with a parameter altered in depression.

The Influence of Financial, Human and Social Capital on Japanese Men's and Women's Health in Single- and Two-Parent Family Structures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bassani, Cherylynn

2008-01-01

Large-scale demographic changes have been occurring in Japan over the last few decades. During this time, the proportion of two-parent (nuclear) and single-parent families have doubled. Despite this rapid increase, the health of individuals in these family structures have received limited attention, as the focus has been directed towards the…

The influence of decadal scale climactic events on the transport of larvae.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmuson, L. K.; Edwards, C. A.; Shanks, A.

2016-02-01

Understanding the processes that influence larval transport remains an important, yet difficult, task. This is especially true as more studies demonstrate that biological and physical oceanographic processes vary at long (e.g. decadal+) time scales. We used individual based biophysical models to study transport of Dungeness crab larvae (the most economically valuable fishery on the West Coast of the Continental United States) over a 10-year period; during both positive and negative phases of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). A physical oceanographic model of the California current was developed using the Regional Ocean Modeling System with 1/30-degree resolution. Measured and modeled PDO indices were positively correlated. The biological model was implemented using the Lagrangian Transport Model, and modified to incorporate temperature dependent development and stage specific behaviors. Super individuals were used to scale production and incorporate mortality. Models were validated using time series statistics to compare measured and modeled daily recruitment. More larvae recruited, in both our measured and modeled time series, during negative PDOs. Our work suggests larvae exhibit a vertically migratory behavior too or almost too the bottom each day. During positive PDO years larvae were competent to settle earlier than negative PDO years, however, pelagic larval durations did not differ. The southern end of the population appears to be a sink population, which likely explains the decline in commercial catch. Ultimately, the population is much more demographically closed than previously thought. We hypothesize the stronger flow in the California current during negative PDO's enhances membership of larvae in the current. Further, migrating almost too the bottom causes larvae to enter the benthic boundary layer on the continental shelf and the California undercurrent on the continental slope, both, which decrease net alongshore advection. These factors result in a higher number of larvae closing their larval phase within the California current. We hypothesize Dungeness crabs have evolved to complete their larval phase within the oceanographic context of the California current and differences with the oceanography in the Alaska current may explain the difficulties in managing fisheries.

Pyrodiversity promotes avian diversity over the decade following forest fire.

PubMed

Tingley, Morgan W; Ruiz-Gutiérrez, Viviana; Wilkerson, Robert L; Howell, Christine A; Siegel, Rodney B

2016-10-12

An emerging hypothesis in fire ecology is that pyrodiversity increases species diversity. We test whether pyrodiversity-defined as the standard deviation of fire severity-increases avian biodiversity at two spatial scales, and whether and how this relationship may change in the decade following fire. We use a dynamic Bayesian community model applied to a multi-year dataset of bird surveys at 1106 points sampled across 97 fires in montane California. Our results provide strong support for a positive relationship between pyrodiversity and bird diversity. This relationship interacts with time since fire, with pyrodiversity having a greater effect on biodiversity at 10 years post-fire than at 1 year post-fire. Immediately after fires, patches of differing burn severities hold similar bird communities, but over the ensuing decade, bird assemblages within patches of contrasting severities differentiate. When evaluated at the scale of individual fires, fires with a greater heterogeneity of burn severities hold substantially more species. High spatial heterogeneity in severity, sometimes called 'mixed-severity fire', is a natural part of wildfire regimes in western North America, but may be jeopardized by climate change and a legacy of fire suppression. Forest management that encourages mixed-severity fire may be critical for sustaining biodiversity across fire-prone landscapes. © 2016 The Author(s).

Pyrodiversity promotes avian diversity over the decade following forest fire

PubMed Central

Ruiz-Gutiérrez, Viviana; Wilkerson, Robert L.; Howell, Christine A.; Siegel, Rodney B.

2016-01-01

An emerging hypothesis in fire ecology is that pyrodiversity increases species diversity. We test whether pyrodiversity—defined as the standard deviation of fire severity—increases avian biodiversity at two spatial scales, and whether and how this relationship may change in the decade following fire. We use a dynamic Bayesian community model applied to a multi-year dataset of bird surveys at 1106 points sampled across 97 fires in montane California. Our results provide strong support for a positive relationship between pyrodiversity and bird diversity. This relationship interacts with time since fire, with pyrodiversity having a greater effect on biodiversity at 10 years post-fire than at 1 year post-fire. Immediately after fires, patches of differing burn severities hold similar bird communities, but over the ensuing decade, bird assemblages within patches of contrasting severities differentiate. When evaluated at the scale of individual fires, fires with a greater heterogeneity of burn severities hold substantially more species. High spatial heterogeneity in severity, sometimes called ‘mixed-severity fire', is a natural part of wildfire regimes in western North America, but may be jeopardized by climate change and a legacy of fire suppression. Forest management that encourages mixed-severity fire may be critical for sustaining biodiversity across fire-prone landscapes. PMID:27708152

Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring.

PubMed

Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

2016-06-05

Prior work shows western US forest wildfire activity increased abruptly in the mid-1980s. Large forest wildfires and areas burned in them have continued to increase over recent decades, with most of the increase in lightning-ignited fires. Northern US Rockies forests dominated early increases in wildfire activity, and still contributed 50% of the increase in large fires over the last decade. However, the percentage growth in wildfire activity in Pacific northwestern and southwestern US forests has rapidly increased over the last two decades. Wildfire numbers and burned area are also increasing in non-forest vegetation types. Wildfire activity appears strongly associated with warming and earlier spring snowmelt. Analysis of the drivers of forest wildfire sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring demonstrates that forests at elevations where the historical mean snow-free season ranged between two and four months, with relatively high cumulative warm-season actual evapotranspiration, have been most affected. Increases in large wildfires associated with earlier spring snowmelt scale exponentially with changes in moisture deficit, and moisture deficit changes can explain most of the spatial variability in forest wildfire regime response to the timing of spring.This article is part of the themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Prior work shows western US forest wildfire activity increased abruptly in the mid-1980s. Large forest wildfires and areas burned in them have continued to increase over recent decades, with most of the increase in lightning-ignited fires. Northern US Rockies forests dominated early increases in wildfire activity, and still contributed 50% of the increase in large fires over the last decade. However, the percentage growth in wildfire activity in Pacific northwestern and southwestern US forests has rapidly increased over the last two decades. Wildfire numbers and burned area are also increasing in non-forest vegetation types. Wildfire activity appears strongly associated with warming and earlier spring snowmelt. Analysis of the drivers of forest wildfire sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring demonstrates that forests at elevations where the historical mean snow-free season ranged between two and four months, with relatively high cumulative warm-season actual evapotranspiration, have been most affected. Increases in large wildfires associated with earlier spring snowmelt scale exponentially with changes in moisture deficit, and moisture deficit changes can explain most of the spatial variability in forest wildfire regime response to the timing of spring. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’. PMID:27216510

A photometric study of the nova-like variable TT Arietis with the MOST satellite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogt, N.; Chené, A.-N.; Moffat, A. F. J.; Matthews, J. M.; Kuschnig, R.; Guenther, D. B.; Rowe, J. F.; Rucinski, S. M.; Sasselov, D.; Weiss, W. W.

2013-12-01

Variability on all time scales between seconds and decades is typical for cataclysmic variables (CVs). One of the brightest and best studied CVs is TT Ari, a nova-like variable which belongs to the VY Scl subclass, characterized by occasional low states in their light curves. It is also known as a permanent superhumper at high state, revealing ``positive'' (PS> P0) as well as ``negative'' (PS< P0) superhumps, where PS is the period of the superhump and P0 the orbital period. TT Ari was observed by the Canadian space telescope MOST for about 230 hours nearly continuously in 2007, with a time resolution of 48 seconds. Here we analyze these data, obtaining a dominant ``negative'' superhump signal with a period PS = 0.1331 days and a mean amplitude of 0.09 mag. Strong flickering with amplitudes up to 0.2 mag and peak-to-peak time scales of 15-20 minutes is superimposed on the periodic variations. We found no indications for significant quasi-periodic oscillations with periods around 15 minutes, reported by other authors. We discuss the known superhump behaviour of TT Ari during the last five decades and conclude that our period value is at the upper limit of all hitherto determined ``negative'' superhump periods of TT Ari, before and after the MOST run.

Recent Studies of the Behavior of the Sun's White-Light Corona Over Time

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

SaintCyr, O. C.; Young, D. E.; Pesnell, W. D.; Lecinski, A.; Eddy, J.

2008-01-01

Predictions of upcoming solar cycles are often related to the nature and dynamics of the Sun's polar magnetic field and its influence on the corona. For the past 30 years we have a more-or-less continuous record of the Sun's white-light corona from groundbased and spacebased coronagraphs. Over that interval, the large scale features of the corona have varied in what we now consider a 'predictable' fashion--complex, showing multiple streamers at all latitudes during solar activity maximum; and a simple dipolar shape aligned with the rotational pole during solar minimum. Over the past three decades the white-light corona appears to be a better indicator of 'true' solar minimum than sunspot number since sunspots disappear for months (even years) at solar minimum. Since almost all predictions of the timing of the next solar maximum depend on the timing of solar minimum, the white-light corona is a potentially important observational discriminator for future predictors. In this contribution we describe recent work quantifying the large-scale appearance of the Sun's corona to correlate it with the sunspot record, especially around solar minimum. These three decades can be expanded with the HAO archive of eclipse photographs which, although sparse compared to the coronagraphic coverage, extends back to 1869. A more extensive understanding of this proxy would give researchers confidence in using the white-light corona as an indicator of solar minimum conditions.

Quantifying climate changes of the Common Era for Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luoto, Tomi P.; Nevalainen, Liisa

2017-10-01

In this study, we aim to quantify summer air temperatures from sediment records from Southern, Central and Northern Finland over the past 2000 years. We use lake sediment archives to estimate paleotemperatures applying fossil Chironomidae assemblages and the transfer function approach. The used enhanced Chironomidae-based temperature calibration set was validated in a 70-year high-resolution sediment record against instrumentally measured temperatures. Since the inferred and observed temperatures showed close correlation, we deduced that the new calibration model is reliable for reconstructions beyond the monitoring records. The 700-year long temperature reconstructions from three sites at multi-decadal temporal resolution showed similar trends, although they had differences in timing of the cold Little Ice Age (LIA) and the initiation of recent warming. The 2000-year multi-centennial reconstructions from three different sites showed resemblance with each other having clear signals of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and LIA, but with differences in their timing. The influence of external forcing on climate of the southern and central sites appeared to be complex at the decadal scale, but the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) was closely linked to the temperature development of the northern site. Solar activity appears to be synchronous with the temperature fluctuations at the multi-centennial scale in all the sites. The present study provides new insights into centennial and decadal variability in air temperature dynamics in Northern Europe and on the external forcing behind these trends. These results are particularly useful in comparing regional responses and lags of temperature trends between different parts of Scandinavia.

Assessing the robustness and uncertainties of projected changes in temperature and precipitation in AR5 Global Climate Models over the Arabian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almazroui, Mansour; Islam, M. Nazrul; Saeed, Fahad; Alkhalaf, Abdulrahman K.; Dambul, Ramzah

2017-09-01

The current study presents the future projection of temperature and precipitation based on ensemble from Couple Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) at seasonal and annual time scales over the Arabian Peninsula. Various analysis methods and techniques including spatial plots with robustness analysis, line plots with likelihood spread, and bar plots as well as annual cycles with likelihood ranges of both temperature and precipitation have been employed. The Northern Arabian Peninsula (NAP) region shows an increase in projected signal of temperature higher than the Southern Arabian Peninsula (SAP). Moreover, the northwestern part of NAP shows a large decrease in precipitation for both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. However, the SAP region shows a great increase in precipitation for both the scenarios. Further, the central, southern and eastern parts of Saudi Arabia also show a tendency of increase in precipitation. Moreover at annual time scale, NAP shows a consistent statistically significant (95% level) decreasing trend of precipitation at the rate of 0.66% (- 1.18/- 0.14 for RCP4.5/RCP8.5) per decade, whereas SAP shows statistically significant (99% level) increasing trend in precipitation at the rate of 1.67% (0.34/2.99 for RCP4.5/RCP8.5) per decade, while the precipitation significant (99% level) increasing trend 0.86% (- 0.27/2.00 for RCP4.5/RCP8.5) per decade over the Arabian Peninsula. The significant (99% level) warming is projected 0.42 °C (0.23 °C/0.60 °C for RCP4.5/RCP8.5) and 0.37 °C (0.20 °C/0.53 °C for RCP4.5/RCP8.5) per decade over NAP and SAP respectively, which is 0.39 °C (0.22 °C/0.57 °C for RCP4.5/RCP8.5) per decade over the whole Peninsula. Our results call for the development of immediate actions and policies in order to combat negative impacts of climate change over the Arabian Peninsula.

Mapping Greenland’s mass loss in space and time

PubMed Central

Harig, Christopher; Simons, Frederik J.

2012-01-01

The melting of polar ice sheets is a major contributor to global sea-level rise. Early estimates of the mass lost from the Greenland ice cap, based on satellite gravity data collected by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, have widely varied. Although the continentally and decadally averaged estimated trends have now more or less converged, to this date, there has been little clarity on the detailed spatial distribution of Greenland’s mass loss and how the geographical pattern has varied on relatively shorter time scales. Here, we present a spatially and temporally resolved estimation of the ice mass change over Greenland between April of 2002 and August of 2011. Although the total mass loss trend has remained linear, actively changing areas of mass loss were concentrated on the southeastern and northwestern coasts, with ice mass in the center of Greenland steadily increasing over the decade. PMID:23169646

Idiocultural Design as a Tool of Cultural Psychology.

PubMed

Cole, Michael

2017-09-01

The study of small group idiocultures offers a productive way to study the role of culture in human cognitive and social development. My evidence is drawn from a multi-decade long study of groups of mixed-aged participants engaged in deliberately designed forms of joint activity taking place several times a week over periods extending over decades in a variety of institutional settings. In each such system, participants ranging from middle childhood to adulthood participate in an after-school program composed of a wide variety of games brought together in a fantasy world watched over by a Wizard. Insights offered by this approach include comparative analysis of skill development in different idiocultural systems, intergenerational changes in the local cultural systems themselves, and intra-cultural variations in the behavioral changes of individual children occurring over different time scales. Implications of this comparative approach for psychology science are discussed.

Decadal atmosphere-ocean variations in the Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenberth, Kevin E.; Hurrell, James W.

1994-03-01

Considerable evidence has emerged of a substantial decade-long change in the north Pacific atmosphere and ocean lasting from about 1976 to 1988. Observed significant changes in the atmospheric circulation throughout the troposphere revealed a deeper and eastward shifted Aleutian low pressure system in the winter half year which advected warmer and moister air along the west coast of North America and into Alaska and colder air over the north Pacific. Consequently, there were increases in temperatures and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) along the west coast of North America and Alaska but decreases in SSTs over the central north Pacific, as well as changes in coastal rainfall and streamflow, and decreases in sea ice in the Bering Sea. Associated changes occurred in the surface wind stress, and, by inference, in the Sverdrup transport in the north Pacific Ocean. Changes in the monthly mean flow were accompanied by a southward shift in the storm tracks and associated synoptic eddy activity and in the surface ocean sensible and latent heat fluxes. In addition to the changes in the physical environment, the deeper Aleutian low increased the nutrient supply as seen through increases in total chlorophyll in the water column, phytoplankton and zooplankton. These changes, along with the altered ocean currents and temperatures, changed the migration patterns and increased the stock of many fish species. A north Pacific (NP) index is defined to measure the decadal variations, and the temporal variability of the index is explored on daily, annual, interannual and decadal time scales. The dominant atmosphere-ocean relation in the north Pacific is one where atmospheric changes lead SSTs by one to two months. However, strong ties are revealed with events in the tropical Pacific, with changes in tropical Pacific SSTs leading SSTs in the north Pacific by three months. Changes in the storm tracks in the north Pacific help to reinforce and maintain the anomalous circulation in the upper troposphere. A hypothesis is put forward outlining the tropical and extratropical realtionships which stresses the role of tropical forcing but with important feed-backs in the extratropics that serve to emphasize the decadal relative to interannual time scales. The Pacific decadal timescale variations are linked to recent changes in the frequency and intensity of El Niño versus La Nina events but whether climate change associated with “global warming” is a factor is an open question.

Representation of Precipitation in a Decade-long Continental-Scale Convection-Resolving Climate Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leutwyler, D.; Fuhrer, O.; Ban, N.; Lapillonne, X.; Lüthi, D.; Schar, C.

2017-12-01

The representation of moist convection in climate models represents a major challenge, due to the small scales involved. Regional climate simulations using horizontal resolutions of O(1km) allow to explicitly resolve deep convection leading to an improved representation of the water cycle. However, due to their extremely demanding computational requirements, they have so far been limited to short simulations and/or small computational domains. A new version of the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling weather and climate model (COSMO) is capable of exploiting new supercomputer architectures employing GPU accelerators, and allows convection-resolving climate simulations on computational domains spanning continents and time periods up to one decade. We present results from a decade-long, convection-resolving climate simulation on a European-scale computational domain. The simulation has a grid spacing of 2.2 km, 1536x1536x60 grid points, covers the period 1999-2008, and is driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Specifically we present an evaluation of hourly rainfall using a wide range of data sets, including several rain-gauge networks and a remotely-sensed lightning data set. Substantial improvements are found in terms of the diurnal cycles of precipitation amount, wet-hour frequency and all-hour 99th percentile. However the results also reveal substantial differences between regions with and without strong orographic forcing. Furthermore we present an index for deep-convective activity based on the statistics of vertical motion. Comparison of the index with lightning data shows that the convection-resolving climate simulations are able to reproduce important features of the annual cycle of deep convection in Europe. Leutwyler D., D. Lüthi, N. Ban, O. Fuhrer, and C. Schär (2017): Evaluation of the Convection-Resolving Climate Modeling Approach on Continental Scales , J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, doi:10.1002/2016JD026013.

Decadal-scale sensitivity of Northeast Greenland ice flow to errors in surface mass balance using ISSM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlegel, N.-J.; Larour, E.; Seroussi, H.; Morlighem, M.; Box, J. E.

2013-06-01

The behavior of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which is considered a major contributor to sea level changes, is best understood on century and longer time scales. However, on decadal time scales, its response is less predictable due to the difficulty of modeling surface climate, as well as incomplete understanding of the dynamic processes responsible for ice flow. Therefore, it is imperative to understand how modeling advancements, such as increased spatial resolution or more comprehensive ice flow equations, might improve projections of ice sheet response to climatic trends. Here we examine how a finely resolved climate forcing influences a high-resolution ice stream model that considers longitudinal stresses. We simulate ice flow using a two-dimensional Shelfy-Stream Approximation implemented within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) and use uncertainty quantification tools embedded within the model to calculate the sensitivity of ice flow within the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream to errors in surface mass balance (SMB) forcing. Our results suggest that the model tends to smooth ice velocities even when forced with extreme errors in SMB. Indeed, errors propagate linearly through the model, resulting in discharge uncertainty of 16% or 1.9 Gt/yr. We find that mass flux is most sensitive to local errors but is also affected by errors hundreds of kilometers away; thus, an accurate SMB map of the entire basin is critical for realistic simulation. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses indicate that SMB forcing needs to be provided at a resolution of at least 40 km.

Santa Ana Winds of Southern California: Their Climatology and Variability Spanning 6.5 Decades from Regional Dynamical Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzman-Morales, J.; Gershunov, A.

2015-12-01

Santa Ana Winds (SAWs) are an integral feature of the regional climate of Southern California/Northern Baja California region. In spite of their tremendous episodic impacts on the health, economy and mood of the region, climate-scale behavior of SAW is poorly understood. In the present work, we identify SAWs in mesoscale dynamical downscaling of a global reanalysis product and construct an hourly SAW catalogue spanning 65 years. We describe the long-term SAW climatology at relevant time-space resolutions, i.e, we developed local and regional SAW indices and analyse their variability on hourly, daily, annual, and multi-decadal timescales. Local and regional SAW indices are validated with available anemometer observations. Characteristic behaviors are revealed, e.g. the SAW intensity-duration relationship. At interdecadal time scales, we find that seasonal SAW activity is sensitive to prominent large-scale low-frequency modes of climate variability rooted in the tropical and north Pacific ocean-atmosphere system that are also known to affect the hydroclimate of this region. Lastly, we do not find any long-term trend in SAW frequency and intensity as previously reported. Instead, we identify a significant long-term trend in SAW behavior whereby contribution of extreme SAW events to total seasonal SAW activity has been increasing at the expense of moderate events. These findings motivate further investigation on SAW evolution in future climate and its impact on wildfires.

Orbit-related sea level errors for TOPEX altimetry at seasonal to decadal timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esselborn, Saskia; Rudenko, Sergei; Schöne, Tilo

2018-03-01

Interannual to decadal sea level trends are indicators of climate variability and change. A major source of global and regional sea level data is satellite radar altimetry, which relies on precise knowledge of the satellite's orbit. Here, we assess the error budget of the radial orbit component for the TOPEX/Poseidon mission for the period 1993 to 2004 from a set of different orbit solutions. The errors for seasonal, interannual (5-year), and decadal periods are estimated on global and regional scales based on radial orbit differences from three state-of-the-art orbit solutions provided by different research teams: the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), the Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS), and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The global mean sea level error related to orbit uncertainties is of the order of 1 mm (8 % of the global mean sea level variability) with negligible contributions on the annual and decadal timescales. In contrast, the orbit-related error of the interannual trend is 0.1 mm yr-1 (27 % of the corresponding sea level variability) and might hamper the estimation of an acceleration of the global mean sea level rise. For regional scales, the gridded orbit-related error is up to 11 mm, and for about half the ocean the orbit error accounts for at least 10 % of the observed sea level variability. The seasonal orbit error amounts to 10 % of the observed seasonal sea level signal in the Southern Ocean. At interannual and decadal timescales, the orbit-related trend uncertainties reach regionally more than 1 mm yr-1. The interannual trend errors account for 10 % of the observed sea level signal in the tropical Atlantic and the south-eastern Pacific. For decadal scales, the orbit-related trend errors are prominent in a several regions including the South Atlantic, western North Atlantic, central Pacific, South Australian Basin, and the Mediterranean Sea. Based on a set of test orbits calculated at GFZ, the sources of the observed orbit-related errors are further investigated. The main contributors on all timescales are uncertainties in Earth's time-variable gravity field models and on annual to interannual timescales discrepancies of the tracking station subnetworks, i.e. satellite laser ranging (SLR) and Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS).

Temporal Changes in Forest Contexts at Multiple Extents: Three Decades of Fragmentation in the Gran Chaco (1979-2010), Central Argentina.

PubMed

Frate, Ludovico; Acosta, Alicia T R; Cabido, Marcelo; Hoyos, Laura; Carranza, Maria Laura

2015-01-01

The context in which a forest exists strongly influences its function and sustainability. Unveiling the multi-scale nature of forest fragmentation context is crucial to understand how human activities affect the spatial patterns of forests across a range of scales. However, this issue remains almost unexplored in subtropical ecosystems. In this study, we analyzed temporal changes (1979-2010) in forest contexts in the Argentinean dry Chaco at multiple extents. We classified forests over the last three decades based on forest context amount (Pf) and structural connectivity (Pff), which were measured using a moving window approach fixed at eight different extents (from local, ~ 6 ha, to regional, ~ 8300 ha). Specific multi-scale forest context profiles (for the years 1979 and 2010) were defined by projecting Pf vs. Pff mean values and were compared across spatial extents. The distributions of Pf across scales were described by scalograms and their shapes over time were compared. The amount of agricultural land and rangelands across the scales were also analyzed. The dry Chaco has undergone an intensive process of fragmentation, resulting in a shift from landscapes dominated by forests with gaps of rangelands to landscapes where small forest patches are embedded in agricultural lands. Multi-scale fragmentation analysis depicted landscapes in which local exploitation, which perforates forest cover, occurs alongside extensive forest clearings, reducing forests to small and isolated patches surrounded by agricultural lands. In addition, the temporal diminution of Pf's variability along with the increment of the mean slope of the Pf 's scalograms, indicate a simplification of the spatial pattern of forest over time. The observed changes have most likely been the result of the interplay between human activities and environmental constraints, which have shaped the spatial patterns of forests across scales. Based on our results, strategies for the conservation and sustainable management of the dry Chaco should take into account both the context of each habitat location and the scales over which a forest pattern might be preserved, altered or restored.

Regional hydro-climatic impacts of contemporary Amazonian deforestation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khanna, Jaya

More than 17% of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared in the past three decades triggering important climatological and societal impacts. This thesis is devoted to identifying and explaining the regional hydroclimatic impacts of this change employing multidecadal satellite observations and numerical simulations providing an integrated perspective on this topic. The climatological nature of this study motivated the implementation and application of a cloud detection technique to a new geostationary satellite dataset. The resulting sub daily, high spatial resolution, multidecadal time series facilitated the detection of trends and variability in deforestation triggered cloud cover changes. The analysis was complemented by satellite precipitation, reanalysis and ground based datasets and attribution with the variable resolution Ocean-Land-Atmosphere-Model. Contemporary Amazonian deforestation affects spatial scales of hundreds of kilometers. But, unlike the well-studied impacts of a few kilometers scale deforestation, the climatic response to contemporary, large scale deforestation is neither well observed nor well understood. Employing satellite datasets, this thesis shows a transition in the regional hydroclimate accompanying increasing scales of deforestation, with downwind deforested regions receiving 25% more and upwind deforested regions receiving 25% less precipitation from the deforested area mean. Simulations robustly reproduce these shifts when forced with increasing deforestation alone, suggesting a negligible role of large-scale decadal climate variability in causing the shifts. Furthermore, deforestation-induced surface roughness variations are found necessary to reproduce the observed spatial patterns in recent times illustrating the strong scale-sensitivity of the climatic response to Amazonian deforestation. This phenomenon, inconsequential during the wet season, is found to substantially affect the regional hydroclimate in the local dry and parts of transition seasons, hence occurring in atmospheric conditions otherwise less conducive to thermal convection. Evidence of this phenomenon is found at two large scale deforested areas considered in this thesis. Hence, the 'dynamical' mechanism, which affects the seasons most important for regional ecology, emerges as an impactful convective triggering mechanism. The phenomenon studied in this thesis provides context for thinking about the climate of a future, more patchily forested Amazonia, by articulating relationships between climate and spatial scales of deforestation.

Temporal Changes in Forest Contexts at Multiple Extents: Three Decades of Fragmentation in the Gran Chaco (1979-2010), Central Argentina

PubMed Central

Frate, Ludovico; Acosta, Alicia T. R.; Cabido, Marcelo; Hoyos, Laura; Carranza, Maria Laura

2015-01-01

The context in which a forest exists strongly influences its function and sustainability. Unveiling the multi-scale nature of forest fragmentation context is crucial to understand how human activities affect the spatial patterns of forests across a range of scales. However, this issue remains almost unexplored in subtropical ecosystems. In this study, we analyzed temporal changes (1979–2010) in forest contexts in the Argentinean dry Chaco at multiple extents. We classified forests over the last three decades based on forest context amount (P f) and structural connectivity (P ff), which were measured using a moving window approach fixed at eight different extents (from local, ~ 6 ha, to regional, ~ 8300 ha). Specific multi-scale forest context profiles (for the years 1979 and 2010) were defined by projecting P f vs. P ff mean values and were compared across spatial extents. The distributions of P f across scales were described by scalograms and their shapes over time were compared. The amount of agricultural land and rangelands across the scales were also analyzed. The dry Chaco has undergone an intensive process of fragmentation, resulting in a shift from landscapes dominated by forests with gaps of rangelands to landscapes where small forest patches are embedded in agricultural lands. Multi-scale fragmentation analysis depicted landscapes in which local exploitation, which perforates forest cover, occurs alongside extensive forest clearings, reducing forests to small and isolated patches surrounded by agricultural lands. In addition, the temporal diminution of P f’s variability along with the increment of the mean slope of the P f ‘s scalograms, indicate a simplification of the spatial pattern of forest over time. The observed changes have most likely been the result of the interplay between human activities and environmental constraints, which have shaped the spatial patterns of forests across scales. Based on our results, strategies for the conservation and sustainable management of the dry Chaco should take into account both the context of each habitat location and the scales over which a forest pattern might be preserved, altered or restored. PMID:26630387

Role of the North Atlantic Ocean in Low Frequency Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danabasoglu, G.; Yeager, S. G.; Kim, W. M.; Castruccio, F. S.

2017-12-01

The Atlantic Ocean is a unique basin with its extensive, North - South overturning circulation, referred to as the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). AMOC is thought to represent the dynamical memory of the climate system, playing an important role in decadal and longer time scale climate variability as well as prediction of the earth's future climate on these time scales via its large heat and salt transports. This oceanic memory is communicated to the atmosphere primarily through the influence of persistent sea surface temperature (SST) variations. Indeed, many modeling studies suggest that ocean circulation, i.e., AMOC, is largely responsible for the creation of coherent SST variability in the North Atlantic, referred to as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV). AMV has been linked to many (multi)decadal climate variations in, e.g., Sahel and Brazilian rainfall, Atlantic hurricane activity, and Arctic sea-ice extent. In the absence of long, continuous observations, much of the evidence for the ocean's role in (multi)decadal variability comes from model simulations. Although models tend to agree on the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation in creating the density anomalies that proceed the changes in ocean circulation, model fidelity in representing variability characteristics, mechanisms, and air-sea interactions remains a serious concern. In particular, there is increasing evidence that models significantly underestimate low frequency variability in the North Atlantic compared to available observations. Such model deficiencies can amplify the relative influence of external or stochastic atmospheric forcing in generating (multi)decadal variability, i.e., AMV, at the expense of ocean dynamics. Here, a succinct overview of the current understanding of the (North) Atlantic Ocean's role on the regional and global climate, including some outstanding questions, will be presented. In addition, a few examples of the climate impacts of the AMV via atmospheric teleconnections from a set of coupled simulations, also considering the relative roles of its tropical and extratropical components, will be highlighted.

Cooling rate and stress relaxation in silica melts and glasses via microsecond molecular dyanmics

DOE PAGES

Lane, J. Matthew D.

2015-07-22

We have conducted extremely long molecular dynamics simulations of glasses to microsecond times, which close the gap between experimental and atomistic simulation time scales by two to three orders of magnitude. The static, thermal, and structural properties of silica glass are reported for glass cooling rates down to 5×10 9 K/s and viscoelastic response in silica melts and glasses are studied over nine decades of time. We finally present results from relaxation of hydrostatic compressive stress in silica and show that time-temperature superposition holds in these systems for temperatures from 3500 to 1000 K.

Diffuse pollution of soil and water: Long term trends at large scales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grathwohl, P.

2012-04-01

Industrialization and urbanization, which consequently increased pressure on the environment to cause degradation of soil and water quality over more than a century, is still ongoing. The number of potential environmental contaminants detected in surface and groundwater is continuously increasing; from classical industrial and agricultural chemicals, to flame retardants, pharmaceuticals, and personal care products. While point sources of pollution can be managed in principle, diffuse pollution is only reversible at very long time scales if at all. Compounds which were phased out many decades ago such as PCBs or DDT are still abundant in soils, sediments and biota. How diffuse pollution is processed at large scales in space (e.g. catchments) and time (centuries) is unknown. The relevance to the field of processes well investigated at the laboratory scale (e.g. sorption/desorption and (bio)degradation kinetics) is not clear. Transport of compounds is often coupled to the water cycle and in order to assess trends in diffuse pollution, detailed knowledge about the hydrology and the solute fluxes at the catchment scale is required (e.g. input/output fluxes, transformation rates at the field scale). This is also a prerequisite in assessing management options for reversal of adverse trends.

Macroweather Predictions and Climate Projections using Scaling and Historical Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hébert, R.; Lovejoy, S.; Del Rio Amador, L.

2017-12-01

There are two fundamental time scales that are pertinent to decadal forecasts and multidecadal projections. The first is the lifetime of planetary scale structures, about 10 days (equal to the deterministic predictability limit), and the second is - in the anthropocene - the scale at which the forced anthropogenic variability exceeds the internal variability (around 16 - 18 years). These two time scales define three regimes of variability: weather, macroweather and climate that are respectively characterized by increasing, decreasing and then increasing varibility with scale.We discuss how macroweather temperature variability can be skilfully predicted to its theoretical stochastic predictability limits by exploiting its long-range memory with the Stochastic Seasonal and Interannual Prediction System (StocSIPS). At multi-decadal timescales, the temperature response to forcing is approximately linear and this can be exploited to make projections with a Green's function, or Climate Response Function (CRF). To make the problem tractable, we exploit the temporal scaling symmetry and restrict our attention to global mean forcing and temperature response using a scaling CRF characterized by the scaling exponent H and an inner scale of linearity τ. An aerosol linear scaling factor α and a non-linear volcanic damping exponent ν were introduced to account for the large uncertainty in these forcings. We estimate the model and forcing parameters by Bayesian inference using historical data and these allow us to analytically calculate a median (and likely 66% range) for the transient climate response, and for the equilibrium climate sensitivity: 1.6K ([1.5,1.8]K) and 2.4K ([1.9,3.4]K) respectively. Aerosol forcing typically has large uncertainty and we find a modern (2005) forcing very likely range (90%) of [-1.0, -0.3] Wm-2 with median at -0.7 Wm-2. Projecting to 2100, we find that to keep the warming below 1.5 K, future emissions must undergo cuts similar to Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 for which the probability to remain under 1.5 K is 48%. RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5-like futures overshoot with very high probability. This underscores that over the next century, the state of the environment will be strongly influenced by past, present and future economical policies.

Methodology and results of calculating central California surface temperature trends: Evidence of human-induced climate change?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christy, J.R.; Norris, W.B.; Redmond, K.; Gallo, K.P.

2006-01-01

A procedure is described to construct time series of regional surface temperatures and is then applied to interior central California stations to test the hypothesis that century-scale trend differences between irrigated and nonirrigated regions may be identified. The procedure requires documentation of every point in time at which a discontinuity in a station record may have occurred through (a) the examination of metadata forms (e.g., station moves) and (b) simple statistical tests. From this "homogeneous segments" of temperature records for each station are defined. Biases are determined for each segment relative to all others through a method employing mathematical graph theory. The debiased segments are then merged, forming a complete regional time series. Time series of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for stations in the irrigated San Joaquin Valley (Valley) and nearby nonirrigated Sierra Nevada (Sierra) were generated for 1910-2003. Results show that twentieth-century Valley minimum temperatures are warming at a highly significant rate in all seasons, being greatest in summer and fall (> +0.25??C decade-1). The Valley trend of annual mean temperatures is +0.07?? ?? 0.07??C decade-1. Sierra summer and fall minimum temperatures appear to be cooling, but at a less significant rate, while the trend of annual mean Sierra temperatures is an unremarkable -0.02?? ?? 0.10??C decade-1. A working hypothesis is that the relative positive trends in Valley minus Sierra minima (>0.4??C decade-1 for summer and fall) are related to the altered surface environment brought about by the growth of irrigated agriculture, essentially changing a high-albedo desert into a darker, moister, vegetated plain. ?? 2006 American Meteorological Society.

Possible forcing of global temperature by the oceanic tides

PubMed Central

Keeling, Charles D.; Whorf, Timothy P.

1997-01-01

An approximately decadal periodicity in surface air temperature is discernable in global observations from A.D. 1855 to 1900 and since A.D. 1945, but with a periodicity of only about 6 years during the intervening period. Changes in solar irradiance related to the sunspot cycle have been proposed to account for the former, but cannot account for the latter. To explain both by a single mechanism, we propose that extreme oceanic tides may produce changes in sea surface temperature at repeat periods, which alternate between approximately one-third and one-half of the lunar nodal cycle of 18.6 years. These alternations, recurring at nearly 90-year intervals, reflect varying slight degrees of misalignment and departures from the closest approach of the Earth with the Moon and Sun at times of extreme tide raising forces. Strong forcing, consistent with observed temperature periodicities, occurred at 9-year intervals close to perihelion (solar perigee) for several decades centered on A.D. 1881 and 1974, but at 6-year intervals for several decades centered on A.D. 1923. As a physical explanation for tidal forcing of temperature we propose that the dissipation of extreme tides increases vertical mixing of sea water, thereby causing episodic cooling near the sea surface. If this mechanism correctly explains near-decadal temperature periodicities, it may also apply to variability in temperature and climate on other times-scales, even millennial and longer. PMID:11607740

Selective environmental stress from sulphur emitted by continental flood basalt eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Anja; Skeffington, Richard; Thordarson, Thorvaldur; Self, Stephen; Forster, Piers; Rap, Alexandru; Ridgwell, Andy; Fowler, David; Wilson, Marjorie; Mann, Graham; Wignall, Paul; Carslaw, Ken

2016-04-01

Several biotic crises during the past 300 million years have been linked to episodes of continental flood basalt volcanism, and in particular to the release of massive quantities of magmatic sulphur gas species. Flood basalt provinces were typically formed by numerous individual eruptions, each lasting years to decades. However, the environmental impact of these eruptions may have been limited by the occurrence of quiescent periods that lasted hundreds to thousands of years. Here we use a global aerosol model to quantify the sulphur-induced environmental effects of individual, decade-long flood basalt eruptions representative of the Columbia River Basalt Group, 16.5-14.5 million years ago, and the Deccan Traps, 65 million years ago. For a decade-long eruption of Deccan scale, we calculate a decadal-mean reduction in global surface temperature of 4.5 K, which would recover within 50 years after an eruption ceased unless climate feedbacks were very different in deep-time climates. Acid mists and fogs could have caused immediate damage to vegetation in some regions, but acid-sensitive land and marine ecosystems were well-buffered against volcanic sulphur deposition effects even during century-long eruptions. We conclude that magmatic sulphur from flood basalt eruptions would have caused a biotic crisis only if eruption frequencies and lava discharge rates had been high and sustained for several centuries at a time.

Selective environmental stress from sulphur emitted by continental flood basalt eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Anja; Skeffington, Richard A.; Thordarson, Thorvaldur; Self, Stephen; Forster, Piers M.; Rap, Alexandru; Ridgwell, Andy; Fowler, David; Wilson, Marjorie; Mann, Graham W.; Wignall, Paul B.; Carslaw, Kenneth S.

2016-01-01

Several biotic crises during the past 300 million years have been linked to episodes of continental flood basalt volcanism, and in particular to the release of massive quantities of magmatic sulphur gas species. Flood basalt provinces were typically formed by numerous individual eruptions, each lasting years to decades. However, the environmental impact of these eruptions may have been limited by the occurrence of quiescent periods that lasted hundreds to thousands of years. Here we use a global aerosol model to quantify the sulphur-induced environmental effects of individual, decade-long flood basalt eruptions representative of the Columbia River Basalt Group, 16.5-14.5 million years ago, and the Deccan Traps, 65 million years ago. For a decade-long eruption of Deccan scale, we calculate a decadal-mean reduction in global surface temperature of 4.5 K, which would recover within 50 years after an eruption ceased unless climate feedbacks were very different in deep-time climates. Acid mists and fogs could have caused immediate damage to vegetation in some regions, but acid-sensitive land and marine ecosystems were well-buffered against volcanic sulphur deposition effects even during century-long eruptions. We conclude that magmatic sulphur from flood basalt eruptions would have caused a biotic crisis only if eruption frequencies and lava discharge rates had been high and sustained for several centuries at a time.

Studies of regional-scale climate variability and change. Hidden Markov models and coupled ocean-atmosphere modes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghil, M.; Kravtsov, S.; Robertson, A. W.

2008-10-14

This project was a continuation of previous work under DOE CCPP funding, in which we had developed a twin approach of probabilistic network (PN) models (sometimes called dynamic Bayesian networks) and intermediate-complexity coupled ocean-atmosphere models (ICMs) to identify the predictable modes of climate variability and to investigate their impacts on the regional scale. We had developed a family of PNs (similar to Hidden Markov Models) to simulate historical records of daily rainfall, and used them to downscale GCM seasonal predictions. Using an idealized atmospheric model, we had established a novel mechanism through which ocean-induced sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies might influencemore » large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns on interannual and longer time scales; we had found similar patterns in a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea-ice model. The goal of the this continuation project was to build on these ICM results and PN model development to address prediction of rainfall and temperature statistics at the local scale, associated with global climate variability and change, and to investigate the impact of the latter on coupled ocean-atmosphere modes. Our main results from the grant consist of extensive further development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling together with the development of associated software; new intermediate coupled models; a new methodology of inverse modeling for linking ICMs with observations and GCM results; and, observational studies of decadal and multi-decadal natural climate results, informed by ICM results.« less

Water Vapor Feedback and Links to Mechanisms of Recent Tropical Climate Variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, F. R.; Miller, Tim L.

2008-01-01

Recent variations of tropical climate on interannual to near-decadal scales have provided a useful target for studying feedback processes. A strong warm/cold ENSO couplet (e.g. 1997-2000) along with several subsequent weaker events are prominent interannual signals that are part of an apparent longer term strengthening of the Walker circulation during the mid to late1990 s with some weakening thereafter. Decadal scale changes in tropical SST structure during the 1990s are accompanied by focusing of precipitation over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and an increase in tropical ocean evaporation of order 1.0 %/decade. Here we use a number of diverse satellite measurements to explore connections between upper-tropospheric humidity (UTH) variations on these time scales and changes in other water and energy fluxes. Precipitation (GPCP, TRMM), turbulent fluxes (OAFlux), and radiative fluxes (ERBE / CERES, SRB) are use to analyze vertically-integrated divergence of moist static energy, divMSE, and its dry and moist components. Strong signatures of MSE flux transport linking ascending and descending regions of tropical circulations are found. Relative strengths of these transports compared to radiative flux changes are interpreted as a measure of efficiency in the overall process of heat rejection during episodes of warm or cold SST forcing. In conjunction with the diagnosed energy transports we explore frequency distributions of upper-tropospheric humidity as inferred from SSM/T-2 and AMSU-B passive microwave measurements. Relating these variations to SST changes suggests positive water vapor feedback, but at a level reduced from constant relative humidity.

Corrigendum to "Decadal to millennial variations in water column parameters in pelagic marine environments of the Western Tethys (Carpathian realm) during Middle-Late Jurassic - Evidence from the radiolarian record" [Glob. Planet. Chang. 162 (2018) 148-162

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bąk, Marta; Bąk, Krzysztof; Michalik, Mariola

2018-04-01

The authors regret (Abstract. The causal link between changes in Middle-Late Jurassic radiolarian habitat group abundances, microfacies and water column conditions in the Western Tethys was studied based on the examination of siliceous limestones and cherts from the Tatra Mountains, Central Western Carpathians. Deposition occurred on a morphological high with incised pelagic sedimentation within a tropical zone. High-resolution quantitative analyses of millimetre-thick microlaminae show changes in microfacies constituents that most likely record the fluxes of nutrients and biological activity in superficial waters. Variability of radiolarian assemblages that are classified to represent (i) upwelling and (ii) stratified water taxa suggest successive changes in water conditions that fluctuated between periods of upwelling and periods of formation of a thick, stratified, warm superficial layer above a deep thermocline during middle Bajocian-late Oxfordian time. Such variations would be strongly influenced by ocean-atmosphere global circulation patterns, which are caused by pressure gradients and are the result of Walker circulation along the equatorial part of the Tethys and the Panthalassa Ocean, including the duration of El Niño-like and La Niña-like cycles, which affect sea surface temperature trends on decadal scales. The fluctuations in radiolarian assemblages in the sediments indicate that long-term palaeoceanographic changes occurred on multi-decadal to centennial-scales during the Bajocian, but lengthened in duration to millennial-scale during the Bathonian through the Oxfordian.)

300 Years of East African Climate Variability from Oxygen Isotopes in a Kenya Coral

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunbar, R.

2003-04-01

Instrumental records of climate variability from the western Indian Ocean are relatively scarce and short. Here I present a monthly resolution stable isotopic record acquired from a large living coral head (Porites) from the Malindi Marine Reserve, Kenya (3^oS, 40^oE). The annual chronology is precise and is based on exceptionally clear high and low density growth band couplets. The record extends from 1696 to 1996 A.D., making it the longest coral climate record from the Indian Ocean and one of the longest available worldwide. We have analyzed the uppermost portion of the coral colony in triplicate, using 3 separate cores. This upper section, used for calibration purposes, also provides estimates of signal fidelity and noise in the climate recording system internal to the colony. Coral δ18O at this site primarily records SST; linear regression of monthly coral δ18O vs. SST yields a slope of -0.26 ppm δ18O per ^oC, and δ18O explains ˜57% of the SST variance. Additional isotopic variability may result from changes in seawater δ18O due to local runoff or regional evaporation/precipitation balance, but these changes are likely to be small because local rainfall δ18O is not strongly depleted relative to seawater and salinity gradients are small. The coral record indicates a clear warming trend of about 1.5^oC that accelerates in the latest 20th century, superimposed on strong decadal variability that persists throughout the record. In fact, δ18O values in the 1990's exceed the 300 year envelope (they are lower) and correspond with apparently unprecedented coral bleaching in coastal East Africa. The decadal component of the Malindi coral record reflects a regional climate signal spanning much of the western equatorial Indian Ocean. In general, East African SST and rainfall are better correlated with Pacific ENSO indicators than with the Indian Monsoon at all periods (inter-annual through multi-decadal) but the correlation weakens after 1975. One dramatic new result we report here is a strong indication of a major cool and dry period from 1750--1820 A.D. This is the single largest multi-decadal anomaly of the past 300 years and correlates perfectly in time with the historically and anecdotally defined Lapanarat Drought. Our results indicate a strong link between multi-decadal tropical cold SST anomalies And far-reaching continental droughts in East Africa. Causes and links to other climate recording systems will be explored. Interannual-decadal SST variations are strongly coherent with ENSO indices and other ENSO-sensitive coral records on decadal and interannual time scales. The decadal component of the Malindi coral record reflects a regional climate signal spanning much of the western equatorial Indian Ocean. Previous work has argued that this component likely reflects a monsoonal influence. However, decadal variance in both Malindi and Seychelles (Charles et al. 1997) coral records is more strongly coherent with ENSO indices than with the India or East Africa rain indices. The coherency of both coral records with Pacific indicators suggests instead that Indian Ocean variability reflects decadal ENSO-like variability originating in the Pacific. These records don't correlate significantly with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation implying a dominant role for the tropical Pacific (as opposed to extra-tropical regions) as a source of regional decadal variability in the western Indian Ocean. This work confirms that the tropical Pacific can act as an agent of decadal climate variability over a very large spatial scale.

Parameter Studies, time-dependent simulations and design with automated Cartesian methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aftosmis, Michael

2005-01-01

Over the past decade, NASA has made a substantial investment in developing adaptive Cartesian grid methods for aerodynamic simulation. Cartesian-based methods played a key role in both the Space Shuttle Accident Investigation and in NASA's return to flight activities. The talk will provide an overview of recent technological developments focusing on the generation of large-scale aerodynamic databases, automated CAD-based design, and time-dependent simulations with of bodies in relative motion. Automation, scalability and robustness underly all of these applications and research in each of these topics will be presented.

North Pacific decadal climate variability since 1661

USGS Publications Warehouse

Biondi, Franco; Gershunov, Alexander; Cayan, Daniel R.

2001-01-01

Climate in the North Pacific and North American sectors has experienced interdecadal shifts during the twentieth century. A network of recently developed tree-ring chronologies for Southern and Baja California extends the instrumental record and reveals decadal-scale variability back to 1661. The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is closely matched by the dominant mode of tree-ring variability that provides a preliminary view of multiannual climate fluctuations spanning the past four centuries. The reconstructed PDO index features a prominent bidecadal oscillation, whose amplitude weakened in the late l700s to mid-1800s. A comparison with proxy records of ENSO suggests that the greatest decadal-scale oscillations in Pacific climate between 1706 and 1977 occurred around 1750, 1905, and 1947.

A Robust Decision-Making Technique for Water Management under Decadal Scale Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callihan, L.; Zagona, E. A.; Rajagopalan, B.

2013-12-01

Robust decision making, a flexible and dynamic approach to managing water resources in light of deep uncertainties associated with climate variability at inter-annual to decadal time scales, is an analytical framework that detects when a system is in or approaching a vulnerable state. It provides decision makers the opportunity to implement strategies that both address the vulnerabilities and perform well over a wide range of plausible future scenarios. A strategy that performs acceptably over a wide range of possible future states is not likely to be optimal with respect to the actual future state. The degree of success--the ability to avoid vulnerable states and operate efficiently--thus depends on the skill in projecting future states and the ability to select the most efficient strategies to address vulnerabilities. This research develops a robust decision making framework that incorporates new methods of decadal scale projections with selection of efficient strategies. Previous approaches to water resources planning under inter-annual climate variability combining skillful seasonal flow forecasts with climatology for subsequent years are not skillful for medium term (i.e. decadal scale) projections as decision makers are not able to plan adequately to avoid vulnerabilities. We address this need by integrating skillful decadal scale streamflow projections into the robust decision making framework and making the probability distribution of this projection available to the decision making logic. The range of possible future hydrologic scenarios can be defined using a variety of nonparametric methods. Once defined, an ensemble projection of decadal flow scenarios are generated from a wavelet-based spectral K-nearest-neighbor resampling approach using historical and paleo-reconstructed data. This method has been shown to generate skillful medium term projections with a rich variety of natural variability. The current state of the system in combination with the probability distribution of the projected flow ensembles enables the selection of appropriate decision options. This process is repeated for each year of the planning horizon--resulting in system outcomes that can be evaluated on their performance and resiliency. The research utilizes the RiverSMART suite of software modeling and analysis tools developed under the Bureau of Reclamation's WaterSMART initiative and built around the RiverWare modeling environment. A case study is developed for the Gunnison and Upper Colorado River Basins. The ability to mitigate vulnerability using the framework is gauged by system performance indicators that measure the ability of the system to meet various water demands (i.e. agriculture, environmental flows, hydropower etc.). Options and strategies for addressing vulnerabilities include measures such as conservation, reallocation and adjustments to operational policy. In addition to being able to mitigate vulnerabilities, options and strategies are evaluated based on benefits, costs and reliability. Flow ensembles are also simulated to incorporate mean and variance from climate change projections for the planning horizon and the above robust decision-making framework is applied to evaluate its performance under changing climate.

A Study of the Interrelationship between the Behaviour and Social Status of a Class of Year 2 Pupils

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Slade, Melanie

2008-01-01

The influence of social status on child development has been the subject of research for several decades, with children who are not accepted by their peers being shown to be at risk of a range of difficulties both at the time and in later life. Strong links have also been established between behaviour and social status. A small-scale action…

Interannual evolutions of (sub)mesoscale dynamics in the Bay of Biscay and the English Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charria, G.; Vandermeirsch, F.; Theetten, S.; Yelekçi, Ö.; Assassi, C.; Audiffren, N. J.

2016-02-01

In a context of global change, ocean regions as the Bay of the Biscay and the English Channel represent key domains to estimate the local impact on the coasts of interannual evolutions. Indeed, the coastal (considering in this project regions above the continental shelf) and regional (including the continental slope and the abyssal plain) environments are sensitive to the long-term fluctuations driven by the open ocean, the atmosphere and the watersheds. These evolutions can have impacts on the whole ecosystem. To understand and, by extension, forecast evolutions of these ecosystems, we need to go further in the description and the analysis of the past interannual variability over decadal to pluri-decadal periods. This variability can be described at different spatial scales from small (< 1 km) to basin scales (> 100 km). With a focus on smaller scales, the modelled dynamics, using a Coastal Circulation Model on national computing resources (GENCI/CINES), is discussed from interannual simulations (10 to 53 years) with different spatial (4 km to 1 km) and vertical (40 to 100 sigma levels) resolutions compared with available in situ observations. Exploring vorticity and kinetic energy based diagnostics; dynamical patterns are described including the vertical distribution of the mesoscale activity. Despite the lack of deep and spatially distributed observations, present numerical experiments draw a first picture of the 3D mesoscale distribution and its evolution at interannual time scales.

Climate effects of non-compliant Volkswagen diesel cars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Katsumasa; Lund, Marianne T.; Aamaas, Borgar; Berntsen, Terje

2018-04-01

On-road operations of Volkswagen light-duty diesel vehicles equipped with defeat devices cause emissions of NOx up to 40 times above emission standards. Higher on-road NOx emissions are a widespread problem not limited to Volkswagen vehicles, but the Volkswagen violations brought this issue under the spotlight. While several studies investigated the health impacts of high NOx emissions, the climatic impacts have not been quantified. Here we show that such diesel cars generate a larger warming on the time scale of several years but a smaller warming on the decadal time scale during actual on-road operations than in vehicle certification tests. The difference in longer-term warming levels, however, depends on underlying driving conditions. Furthermore, in the presence of defeat devices, the climatic advantage of ‘clean diesel’ cars over gasoline cars, in terms of global-mean temperature change, is in our view not necessarily the case.

The Response of Ice Sheets to Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snow, K.; Goldberg, D. N.; Holland, P. R.; Jordan, J. R.; Arthern, R. J.; Jenkins, A.

2017-12-01

West Antarctic Ice Sheet loss is a significant contributor to sea level rise. While the ice loss is thought to be triggered by fluctuations in oceanic heat at the ice shelf bases, ice sheet response to ocean variability remains poorly understood. Using a synchronously coupled ice-ocean model permitting grounding line migration, this study evaluates the response of an ice sheet to periodic variations in ocean forcing. Resulting oscillations in grounded ice volume amplitude is shown to grow as a nonlinear function of ocean forcing period. This implies that slower oscillations in climatic forcing are disproportionately important to ice sheets. The ice shelf residence time offers a critical time scale, above which the ice response amplitude is a linear function of ocean forcing period and below which it is quadratic. These results highlight the sensitivity of West Antarctic ice streams to perturbations in heat fluxes occurring at decadal time scales.

Large short-term deviations from dipolar field during the Levantine Iron Age Geomagnetic Anomaly ca. 1050-700 BCE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaar, R.; Tauxe, L.; Ebert, Y.

2017-12-01

Continuous decadal-resolution paleomagnetic data from archaeological and sedimentary sources in the Levant revealed the existence a local high-field anomaly, which spanned the first 350 years of the first millennium BCE. This so-called "the Levantine Iron Age geomagnetic Anomaly" (LIAA) was characterized by a high averaged geomagnetic field (virtual axial dipole moments, VADM > 140 Z Am2, nearly twice of today's field), short decadal-scale geomagnetic spikes (VADM of 160-185 Z Am2), fast directional and intensity variations, and substantial deviation (20°-25°) from dipole field direction. Similar high field values in the time frame of LIAA have been observed north, and northeast to the Levant: Eastern Anatolia, Turkmenistan, and Georgia. West of the Levant, in the Balkans, field values in the same time are moderate to low. The overall data suggest that the LIAA is a manifestation of a local positive geomagnetic field anomaly similar in magnitude and scale to the presently active negative South Atlantic Anomaly. In this presentation we review the overall archaeomagnetic and sedimentary evidences supporting the local anomaly hypothesis, and compare these observations with today's IGRF field. We analyze the global data during the first two millennia BCE, which suggest some unexpected large deviations from a simple dipolar geomagnetic structure.

GISS GCMAM Modeled Climate Responses to Total and Spectral Solar Forcing on Decadal and Centennial Time Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Guoyong; Cahalan, Robert; Rind, David; Jonas, Jeffrey; Pilewskie, Peter; Harder, Jerry

2014-05-01

We examine the influence of the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor) observed spectral solar irradiance (SSI) variations on Earth's climate. We apply two reconstructed spectral solar forcing scenarios, one SIM based, the other based on the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) model, as inputs to the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) GCMAM (Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model) to examine the climate responses on decadal and centennial time scales. We show that the atmosphere has different temperature, ozone, and dynamic responses to the two solar spectral forcing scenarios, even when the variations in TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) are the same. We find that solar variations under either scenario contribute a small fraction of the observed temperature increase since the industrial revolution. The trend of global averaged surface air temperature response to the SIM-based solar forcing is 0.02 °C/century, about half of the temperature trend to the SATIRE-based SSI. However the temporal variation of the surface air temperature for the SIM-based solar forcing scenario is much larger compared to its SATIRE counterpart. Further research is required to examine TSI and SSI variations in the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, to assess their implications for the solar influence on climate.

GISS GCMAM Modeled Climate Responses to Total and Spectral Solar Forcing on Decadal and Centennial Time Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, G.; Cahalan, R. F.; Rind, D. H.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J. W.; Krivova, N.

2014-12-01

We examine the influence of the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral Irradiance Monitor) observed spectral solar irradiance (SSI) variations on Earth's climate. We apply two reconstructed spectral solar forcing scenarios, one SIM based, the other based on the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) model, as inputs to the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) GCMAM (Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model) to examine the climate responses on decadal and centennial time scales. We show that the atmosphere has different temperature, ozone, and dynamic responses to the two solar spectral forcing scenarios, even when the variations in TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) are the same. We find that solar variations under either scenario contribute a small fraction of the observed temperature increase since the industrial revolution. The trend of global averaged surface air temperature response to the SIM-based solar forcing is 0.02 °C/century, about half of the temperature trend to the SATIRE-based SSI. However the temporal variation of the surface air temperature for the SIM-based solar forcing scenario is much larger compared to its SATIRE counterpart. Further research is required to examine TSI and SSI variations in the ascending phase of solar cycle 24, to assess their implications for the solar influence on climate.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of black-tailed prairie dog colonies affected by plague

USGS Publications Warehouse

Augustine, D.J.; Matchett, M.R.; Toombs, T.P.; Cully, J.F.; Johnson, T.L.; Sidle, John G.

2008-01-01

Black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) are a key component of the disturbance regime in semi-arid grasslands of central North America. Many studies have compared community and ecosystem characteristics on prairie dog colonies to grasslands without prairie dogs, but little is known about landscape-scale patterns of disturbance that prairie dog colony complexes may impose on grasslands over long time periods. We examined spatiotemporal dynamics in two prairie dog colony complexes in southeastern Colorado (Comanche) and northcentral Montana (Phillips County) that have been strongly influenced by plague, and compared them to a complex unaffected by plague in northwestern Nebraska (Oglala). Both plague-affected complexes exhibited substantial spatiotemporal variability in the area occupied during a decade, in contrast to the stability of colonies in the Oglala complex. However, the plague-affected complexes differed in spatial patterns of colony movement. Colonies in the Comanche complex in shortgrass steppe shifted locations over a decade. Only 10% of the area occupied in 1995 was still occupied by prairie dogs in 2006. In 2005 and 2006 respectively, 74 and 83% of the total area of the Comanche complex occurred in locations that were not occupied in 1995, and only 1% of the complex was occupied continuously over a decade. In contrast, prairie dogs in the Phillips County complex in mixed-grass prairie and sagebrush steppe primarily recolonized previously occupied areas after plague-induced colony declines. In Phillips County, 62% of the area occupied in 1993 was also occupied by prairie dogs in 2004, and 12% of the complex was occupied continuously over a decade. Our results indicate that plague accelerates spatiotemporal movement of prairie dog colonies, and have significant implications for landscape-scale effects of prairie dog disturbance on grassland composition and productivity. These findings highlight the need to combine landscape-scale measures of habitat suitability with long-term measures of colony locations to understand the role of plague-affected prairie dogs as a grassland disturbance process. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Relationship of the South Asian Monsoon and Regional Drought with Distinct Equatorial Pacific SST Patterns on Interannual and Decadal Timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, M.; Ummenhofer, C.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2014-12-01

The Asian monsoon system influences the lives of over 60% of the planet's population, with widespread socioeconomic effects resulting from weakening or failure of monsoon rains. Spatially broad and temporally extended drought episodes have been known to dramatically influence human history, including the Strange Parallels Drought in the mid-18th century. Here, we explore the dynamics of sustained monsoon failure using the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas - a high-resolution network of hydro-climatically sensitive tree-ring records - and a 1300-year pre-industrial control run of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Spatial drought patterns in the instrumental and model-based Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) during years with extremely weakened South Asian monsoon are similar to those reconstructed during the Strange Parallels Drought in the MADA. We further explore how the large-scale Indo-Pacific climate during weakened South Asian monsoon differs between interannual and decadal timescales. The Strange Parallels Drought pattern is observed during March-April-May primarily over Southeast Asia, with decreased precipitation and reduced moisture fluxes, while anomalies in June-July-August are confined to the Indian subcontinent during both individual and decadal events. Individual years with anomalous drying exhibit canonical El Niño conditions over the eastern equatorial Pacific and associated shifts in the Walker circulation, while decadal events appear to be related to anomalous warming around the dateline in the equatorial Pacific, typical of El Niño Modoki events. The results suggest different dynamical processes influence drought at different time scales through distinct remote ocean influences.

Fast laboratory-based micro-computed tomography for pore-scale research: Illustrative experiments and perspectives on the future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bultreys, Tom; Boone, Marijn A.; Boone, Matthieu N.; De Schryver, Thomas; Masschaele, Bert; Van Hoorebeke, Luc; Cnudde, Veerle

2016-09-01

Over the past decade, the wide-spread implementation of laboratory-based X-ray micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) scanners has revolutionized both the experimental and numerical research on pore-scale transport in geological materials. The availability of these scanners has opened up the possibility to image a rock's pore space in 3D almost routinely to many researchers. While challenges do persist in this field, we treat the next frontier in laboratory-based micro-CT scanning: in-situ, time-resolved imaging of dynamic processes. Extremely fast (even sub-second) micro-CT imaging has become possible at synchrotron facilities over the last few years, however, the restricted accessibility of synchrotrons limits the amount of experiments which can be performed. The much smaller X-ray flux in laboratory-based systems bounds the time resolution which can be attained at these facilities. Nevertheless, progress is being made to improve the quality of measurements performed on the sub-minute time scale. We illustrate this by presenting cutting-edge pore scale experiments visualizing two-phase flow and solute transport in real-time with a lab-based environmental micro-CT set-up. To outline the current state of this young field and its relevance to pore-scale transport research, we critically examine its current bottlenecks and their possible solutions, both on the hardware and the software level. Further developments in laboratory-based, time-resolved imaging could prove greatly beneficial to our understanding of transport behavior in geological materials and to the improvement of pore-scale modeling by providing valuable validation.

Solar Changes and Climate Changes. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feynman, J.

2009-12-01

During the early decades of the Space Age there was general agreement in the scientific community on two facts: (1) sunspot cycles continued without interruption; (2) decadal timescale variations in the solar output has no effect on Earth’s climate. Then in 1976 Jack Eddy published a paper called ‘The Maunder Minimum” in Science magazine arguing that neither of these two established facts was true. He reviewed the observations from the 17th century that show the Sun did not appear to cycle for several decades and he related that to the cold winters in Northern Europe at that time. The paper has caused three decades of hot discussions. When Jack Eddy died on June 10th of this year the arguments were sill going on, and there were no sunspots that day. The Sun was in the longest and deepest solar minimum since 1900. In this talk I will describe the changes in the solar output that have taken place over the last few decades and put them in their historical context. I will also review recent work on the influence of decadal and century scale solar variations on the Earth’s climate. It is clear that this long, deep “solar minimum” is an opportunity to make fundamental progress on our understanding of the solar dynamo and to separate climate change due to the Sun from anthropogenic climate change.

Mesoscale to Synoptic Scale Cloud Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rossow, William B.

1998-01-01

The atmospheric circulation and its interaction with the oceanic circulation involve non-linear and non-local exchanges of energy and water over a very large range of space and time scales. These exchanges are revealed, in part, by the related variations of clouds, which occur on a similar range of scales as the atmospheric motions that produce them. Collection of comprehensive measurements of the properties of the atmosphere, clouds and surface allows for diagnosis of some of these exchanges. The use of a multi-satellite-network approach by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) comes closest to providing complete coverage of the relevant range space and time scales over which the clouds, atmosphere and ocean vary. A nearly 15-yr dataset is now available that covers the range from 3 hr and 30 km to decade and planetary. This paper considers three topics: (1) cloud variations at the smallest scales and how they may influence radiation-cloud interactions, and (2) cloud variations at "moderate" scales and how they may cause natural climate variability, and (3) cloud variations at the largest scales and how they affect the climate. The emphasis in this discussion is on the more mature subject of cloud-radiation interactions. There is now a need to begin similar detailed diagnostic studies of water exchange processes.

Variability and change of sea level and its components in the Indo-Pacific region during the altimetry era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Quran; Zhang, Xuebin; Church, John A.; Hu, Jianyu

2017-03-01

Previous studies have shown that regional sea level exhibits interannual and decadal variations associated with the modes of climate variability. A better understanding of those low-frequency sea level variations benefits the detection and attribution of climate change signals. Nonetheless, the contributions of thermosteric, halosteric, and mass sea level components to sea level variability and trend patterns remain unclear. By focusing on signals associated with dominant climate modes in the Indo-Pacific region, we estimate the interannual and decadal fingerprints and trend of each sea level component utilizing a multivariate linear regression of two adjoint-based ocean reanalyses. Sea level interannual, decadal, and trend patterns primarily come from thermosteric sea level (TSSL). Halosteric sea level (HSSL) is of regional importance in the Pacific Ocean on decadal time scale and dominates sea level trends in the northeast subtropical Pacific. The compensation between TSSL and HSSL is identified in their decadal variability and trends. The interannual and decadal variability of temperature generally peak at subsurface around 100 m but that of salinity tend to be surface-intensified. Decadal temperature and salinity signals extend deeper into the ocean in some regions than their interannual equivalents. Mass sea level (MassSL) is critical for the interannual and decadal variability of sea level over shelf seas. Inconsistencies exist in MassSL trend patterns among various estimates. This study highlights regions where multiple processes work together to control sea level variability and change. Further work is required to better understand the interaction of different processes in those regions.

CLARREO Cornerstone of the Earth Observing System: Measuring Decadal Change Through Accurate Emitted Infrared and Reflected Solar Spectra and Radio Occultation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sandford, Stephen P.

2010-01-01

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) is one of four Tier 1 missions recommended by the recent NRC Decadal Survey report on Earth Science and Applications from Space (NRC, 2007). The CLARREO mission addresses the need to provide accurate, broadly acknowledged climate records that are used to enable validated long-term climate projections that become the foundation for informed decisions on mitigation and adaptation policies that address the effects of climate change on society. The CLARREO mission accomplishes this critical objective through rigorous SI traceable decadal change observations that are sensitive to many of the key uncertainties in climate radiative forcings, responses, and feedbacks that in turn drive uncertainty in current climate model projections. These same uncertainties also lead to uncertainty in attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing. For the first time CLARREO will make highly accurate, global, SI-traceable decadal change observations sensitive to the most critical, but least understood, climate forcings, responses, and feedbacks. The CLARREO breakthrough is to achieve the required levels of accuracy and traceability to SI standards for a set of observations sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables. The required accuracy levels are determined so that climate trend signals can be detected against a background of naturally occurring variability. Climate system natural variability therefore determines what level of accuracy is overkill, and what level is critical to obtain. In this sense, the CLARREO mission requirements are considered optimal from a science value perspective. The accuracy for decadal change traceability to SI standards includes uncertainties associated with instrument calibration, satellite orbit sampling, and analysis methods. Unlike most space missions, the CLARREO requirements are driven not by the instantaneous accuracy of the measurements, but by accuracy in the large time/space scale averages that are key to understanding decadal changes.

Interannual and Decadal Variability of Summer Rainfall over South America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhou, Jiayu; Lau, K.-M.

1999-01-01

Using the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) Merged Analysis of Precipitation product along with the Goddard Earth Observing System reanalysis and the Climate Analysis Center sea surface temperature (SST) data, we conduct a diagnostic study of the interannual and decadal scale variability of summer rainfall over South America. Results show three leading modes of rainfall variation identified with interannual, decadal, and long-term trend variability. Together, these modes explain more than half the total variance. The first mode is highly correlated with El Nino/southern oscillation (ENSO), showing severe drought over Northeast Brazil and copious rainfall over the Ecuador coast and the area of Uruguay-Southern Brazil in El Nino years. This pattern is attributed to the large scale zonal shift of the Walker circulation and local Hadley cell anomaly induced by positive (negative) SST anomaly over the eastern (western) equatorial Pacific. In El Nino years, two convective belts indicated by upper tropospheric velocity potential trough and mid-tropospheric rising motion, which are somewhat symmetric about the equator, extend toward the northeast and the southeast into the tropical North and South Atlantic respectively. Sandwiched between the ascent is a region of descending motion over Northeast Brazil. The southern branch of the anomalous Hadley cell is dynamically linked to the increase of rainfall over Uruguay-Southern Brazil. The regional response of anomalous circulation shows a stronger South American summer monsoon and an enhanced (weakened) subtropical high over the South Atlantic (South Pacific) Ocean. The decadal variation displays a meridional shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is tie to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient over the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific. In conjunction with this mode is a large scale mass swing between the polar regions and midlatitudes in both hemispheres. Over the South Atlantic and the South Pacific, the changes of the strength of the subtropical high and the associated surface wind are dynamically consistent with the distribution of local SST anomalies, suggesting the importance of the atmospheric forcing in the decadal time scale. The decadal mode also presents a weak summer monsoon in its positive phase, which reduces the moisture supply from the equatorial Atlantic and the Amazon Basin and results in negative rainfall anomalies over the central Andes and Gran Chaco. The long-term trend shows decrease of rainfall from the northwest coast to the southeast subtropical region and a southward shift of Atlantic ITCZ that leads to increased rainfall over northern and eastern Brazil. Our result shows a close link of this mode to the observed SST warming trend over the subtropical South Atlantic and a remote connection to the interdecadal SST variation over the extratropical North Atlantic found in previous studies.

Synchronous multi-decadal climate variability of the whole Pacific areas revealed in tree rings since 1567

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Keyan; Cook, Edward; Guo, Zhengtang; Chen, Deliang; Ou, Tinghai; Zhao, Yan

2018-02-01

Oceanic and atmospheric patterns play a crucial role in modulating climate variability from interannual to multi-decadal timescales by causing large-scale co-varying climate changes. The brevity of the existing instrumental records hinders the ability to recognize climate patterns before the industrial era, which can be alleviated using proxies. Unfortunately, proxy based reconstructions of oceanic and atmospheric modes of the past millennia often have modest agreements with each other before the instrumental period, raising questions about the robustness of the reconstructions. To ensure the stability of climate signals in proxy data through time, we first identified tree-ring datasets from distant regions containing coherent variations in Asia and North America, and then interpreted their climate information. We found that the multi-decadal covarying climate patterns of the middle and high latitudinal regions around the northern Pacific Ocean agreed quite well with the climate reconstructions of the tropical and southern Pacific areas. This indicates a synchronous variability at the multi-decadal timescale of the past 430 years for the entire Pacific Ocean. This pattern is closely linked to the dominant mode of the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) after removing the warming trend. This Pacific multi-decadal SST variability resembles the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation.

Physical understanding of complex multiscale biochemical models via algorithmic simplification: Glycolysis in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kourdis, Panayotis D.; Steuer, Ralf; Goussis, Dimitris A.

2010-09-01

Large-scale models of cellular reaction networks are usually highly complex and characterized by a wide spectrum of time scales, making a direct interpretation and understanding of the relevant mechanisms almost impossible. We address this issue by demonstrating the benefits provided by model reduction techniques. We employ the Computational Singular Perturbation (CSP) algorithm to analyze the glycolytic pathway of intact yeast cells in the oscillatory regime. As a primary object of research for many decades, glycolytic oscillations represent a paradigmatic candidate for studying biochemical function and mechanisms. Using a previously published full-scale model of glycolysis, we show that, due to fast dissipative time scales, the solution is asymptotically attracted on a low dimensional manifold. Without any further input from the investigator, CSP clarifies several long-standing questions in the analysis of glycolytic oscillations, such as the origin of the oscillations in the upper part of glycolysis, the importance of energy and redox status, as well as the fact that neither the oscillations nor cell-cell synchronization can be understood in terms of glycolysis as a simple linear chain of sequentially coupled reactions.

Decadal-scale changes in forest soil carbon and nitrogen storage are influenced by organic matter removal during timber harvest

Treesearch

Ryan M. Mushinski; Thomas W. Boutton; D. Andrew Scott

2017-01-01

This study investigates whether different intensities of organic matter removal associated with timber harvest influence decadal-scale storage of soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (TN) in the top 1 m of mineral soil 18 years postharvest in a Pinus taeda L. forest in the Gulf Coastal Plain. We quantified forest harvest-related changes in...

Detrended Partial-Cross-Correlation Analysis: A New Method for Analyzing Correlations in Complex System

PubMed Central

Yuan, Naiming; Fu, Zuntao; Zhang, Huan; Piao, Lin; Xoplaki, Elena; Luterbacher, Juerg

2015-01-01

In this paper, a new method, detrended partial-cross-correlation analysis (DPCCA), is proposed. Based on detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA), this method is improved by including partial-correlation technique, which can be applied to quantify the relations of two non-stationary signals (with influences of other signals removed) on different time scales. We illustrate the advantages of this method by performing two numerical tests. Test I shows the advantages of DPCCA in handling non-stationary signals, while Test II reveals the “intrinsic” relations between two considered time series with potential influences of other unconsidered signals removed. To further show the utility of DPCCA in natural complex systems, we provide new evidence on the winter-time Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the winter-time Nino3 Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (Nino3-SSTA) affecting the Summer Rainfall over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River (SRYR). By applying DPCCA, better significant correlations between SRYR and Nino3-SSTA on time scales of 6 ~ 8 years are found over the period 1951 ~ 2012, while significant correlations between SRYR and PDO on time scales of 35 years arise. With these physically explainable results, we have confidence that DPCCA is an useful method in addressing complex systems. PMID:25634341

Large-scale disturbance legacies and the climate sensitivity of primary Picea abies forests.

PubMed

Schurman, Jonathan S; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Bače, Radek; Čada, Vojtěch; Fraver, Shawn; Janda, Pavel; Kulakowski, Dominik; Labusova, Jana; Mikoláš, Martin; Nagel, Thomas A; Seidl, Rupert; Synek, Michal; Svobodová, Kristýna; Chaskovskyy, Oleh; Teodosiu, Marius; Svoboda, Miroslav

2018-05-01

Determining the drivers of shifting forest disturbance rates remains a pressing global change issue. Large-scale forest dynamics are commonly assumed to be climate driven, but appropriately scaled disturbance histories are rarely available to assess how disturbance legacies alter subsequent disturbance rates and the climate sensitivity of disturbance. We compiled multiple tree ring-based disturbance histories from primary Picea abies forest fragments distributed throughout five European landscapes spanning the Bohemian Forest and the Carpathian Mountains. The regional chronology includes 11,595 tree cores, with ring dates spanning the years 1750-2000, collected from 560 inventory plots in 37 stands distributed across a 1,000 km geographic gradient, amounting to the largest disturbance chronology yet constructed in Europe. Decadal disturbance rates varied significantly through time and declined after 1920, resulting in widespread increases in canopy tree age. Approximately 75% of current canopy area recruited prior to 1900. Long-term disturbance patterns were compared to an historical drought reconstruction, and further linked to spatial variation in stand structure and contemporary disturbance patterns derived from LANDSAT imagery. Historically, decadal Palmer drought severity index minima corresponded to higher rates of canopy removal. The severity of contemporary disturbances increased with each stand's estimated time since last major disturbance, increased with mean diameter, and declined with increasing within-stand structural variability. Reconstructed spatial patterns suggest that high small-scale structural variability has historically acted to reduce large-scale susceptibility and climate sensitivity of disturbance. Reduced disturbance rates since 1920, a potential legacy of high 19th century disturbance rates, have contributed to a recent region-wide increase in disturbance susceptibility. Increasingly common high-severity disturbances throughout primary Picea forests of Central Europe should be reinterpreted in light of both legacy effects (resulting in increased susceptibility) and climate change (resulting in increased exposure to extreme events). © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reconstructions of solar irradiance on centennial time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krivova, Natalie; Solanki, Sami K.; Dasi Espuig, Maria; Kok Leng, Yeo

Solar irradiance is the main external source of energy to Earth's climate system. The record of direct measurements covering less than 40 years is too short to study solar influence on Earth's climate, which calls for reconstructions of solar irradiance into the past with the help of appropriate models. An obvious requirement to a competitive model is its ability to reproduce observed irradiance changes, and a successful example of such a model is presented by the SATIRE family of models. As most state-of-the-art models, SATIRE assumes that irradiance changes on time scales longer than approximately a day are caused by the evolving distribution of dark and bright magnetic features on the solar surface. The surface coverage by such features as a function of time is derived from solar observations. The choice of these depends on the time scale in question. Most accurate is the version of the model that employs full-disc spatially-resolved solar magnetograms and reproduces over 90% of the measured irradiance variation, including the overall decreasing trend in the total solar irradiance over the last four cycles. Since such magnetograms are only available for about four decades, reconstructions on time scales of centuries have to rely on disc-integrated proxies of solar magnetic activity, such as sunspot areas and numbers. Employing a surface flux transport model and sunspot observations as input, we have being able to produce synthetic magnetograms since 1700. This improves the temporal resolution of the irradiance reconstructions on centennial time scales. The most critical aspect of such reconstructions remains the uncertainty in the magnitude of the secular change.

Coherent response of the Indo-African boreal summer monsoon to Pacific SST captured in Ethiopian rain δ18O

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madhavan, M.; Palliyil, L. R.; Ramesh, R.

2017-12-01

Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST) plays an important role in the inter-annual to inter-decadal variability of boreal monsoons. We identified a common mode of inter annual variability in the Indian and African boreal summer monsoon (June to September) rainfalls, which is linked to Pacific SSTs, using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. Temporal coefficients (Principle component: PC1) of the leading mode of variability (EOF-1) is well correlated with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and Sahel rainfall. About forty year long monthly observations of δ18O (and δD) at Addis Ababa, Ethiopia show a strong association with PC1 (r=0.69 for δ18O and r=0.75 for δD). Analysis of SST, sea level pressure and lower tropospheric winds suggest that 18O depletion in Ethiopian rainfall (and wet phases of PC1) is associated with cooler eastern tropical Pacific and warmer western Pacific and strengthening of Pacific subtropical high in both the hemispheres. Associated changes in the trade winds cause enhanced westerly moisture transport into the Indian subcontinent and northern Africa and cause enhanced rainfall. The intrusion of Atlantic westerly component of moisture transport at Addis Ababa during wet phases of PC1 is clearly recorded in δ18O of rain. We also observe the same common mode of variability (EOF1) of Indo-African boreal summer monsoon rain on decadal time scales. A 100 year long δ18O record of actively growing speleothem from the Mechara cave, Ethiopia, matches very well with the PC1 on the decadal time scale. This highlights the potential of speleothem δ18O and leaf wax δD from Ethiopia to investigate the natural variability and teleconnections of Indo-African boreal monsoon.

Hotspots and key periods of Greenland climate change during the past six decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abermann, J.; Hansen, B. U.; Lund, M.; Wacker, S.; Karami, M.; Cappelen, J.

2016-12-01

We investigate spatial gradients of air temperature and pressure and their trends in Greenland and compare these considering varying time window lengths since 1958. Both latitudinal temperature and pressure gradients are strongest during winter. An overall temperature increase of up to 0.15°C yr-1 has been observed for 1996-2014. The strongest warming happened during February at the West Coast (up to 0.6°C/yr), weaker but significant warming occurred during summer months (up to 0.3°C/yr) both in West and in East Greenland. Pressure trends are mainly negative if at all, but largely not significant. We discuss the relevance of these findings in an upscaling context of an extensive ecosystem monitoring program that was established in 1996 in Northeast Greenland (Zackenberg, www.g-e-m.dk). Improving the understanding of the interaction between the individual components of the ecosystem is its core idea, climate being the main driver. A series of studies highlights trends and variability for biotic and abiotic parameters for this period on a point scale. In order to expand trend assessments to a Greenland-wide scale, local climate trends in Zackenberg have to be put into a larger spatio-temporal context. We find that temperature trends in Northeast Greenland and the area around Zackenberg follow the general pattern but are smaller than the average in Greenland. Compared with other time windows in the past 6 decades, the study period 1996 - 2014 marks an above average warming trend; peak warming however occurred half a decade earlier. We therefore conclude that temperature-driven ecosystem changes observed in Zackenberg mark a lower boundary for environmental changes in Greenland.

Next Generation Extended Lagrangian Quantum-based Molecular Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Negre, Christian

2017-06-01

A new framework for extended Lagrangian first-principles molecular dynamics simulations is presented, which overcomes shortcomings of regular, direct Born-Oppenheimer molecular dynamics, while maintaining important advantages of the unified extended Lagrangian formulation of density functional theory pioneered by Car and Parrinello three decades ago. The new framework allows, for the first time, energy conserving, linear-scaling Born-Oppenheimer molecular dynamics simulations, which is necessary to study larger and more realistic systems over longer simulation times than previously possible. Expensive, self-consinstent-field optimizations are avoided and normal integration time steps of regular, direct Born-Oppenheimer molecular dynamics can be used. Linear scaling electronic structure theory is presented using a graph-based approach that is ideal for parallel calculations on hybrid computer platforms. For the first time, quantum based Born-Oppenheimer molecular dynamics simulation is becoming a practically feasible approach in simulations of +100,000 atoms-representing a competitive alternative to classical polarizable force field methods. In collaboration with: Anders Niklasson, Los Alamos National Laboratory.

Tropical Rainfall Variability on Interannual-to-Interdecadal/Longer-Time Scales Derived from the GPCP Monthly Product

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gu, Guojun; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Curtis, Scott

2006-01-01

Global and large regional rainfall variations and possible long-term changes are examined using the 26-year (1979-2004) GPCP monthly dataset (Adler et al., 2003). Our emphasis is to discriminate among variations due to ENSO, volcanic events, and possible long-term climate changes in the tropics. Although the global linear change of precipitation in the data set is near zero during the time period, an increase in tropical rainfall is noted, with a weaker decrease over northern hemisphere middle latitudes. Focusing on the tropics (25degS-25degN), the data set indicates an upward trend (0.06 mm/day/decade) and a downward trend (-0.02 mm/day/decade) over tropical ocean and land, respectively. This corresponds to an about 4.9% increase (ocean) and 1.6% decrease (land) during the entire 26-year time period. Techniques are applied to isolate and quantify variations due to ENSO and two major volcanic eruptions (El Chichon, March 1982; Pinatubo, June 1991) in order to examine longer time-scale changes. The ENSO events generally do not impact the tropical total rainfall, but, of course, induce significant anomalies with opposite signs over tropical land and ocean. The impact of the two volcanic eruptions is estimated to be about a 5% reduction in tropical rainfall over both land and ocean. A modified data set (with ENSO and volcano effects removed) retains the same approximate linear change slopes, but with reduced variance, thereby increasing the confidence levels associated with the long-term rainfall changes in the tropics 2

Progress and Challenges in Subseasonal Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried

2003-01-01

While substantial advances have occurred over the last few decades in both weather and seasonal prediction, progress in improving predictions on subseasonal time scales (approximately 2 weeks to 2 months) has been slow. In this talk I will highlight some of the recent progress that has been made to improve forecasts on subseasonal time scales and outline the challenges that we face both from an observational and modeling perspective. The talk will be based primarily on the results and conclusions of a recent NASA-sponsored workshop that focused on the subseasonal prediction problem. One of the key conclusions of that workshop was that there is compelling evidence for predictability at forecast lead times substantially longer than two weeks, and that much of that predictability is currently untapped. Tropical diabatic heating and soil wetness were singled out as particularly important processes affecting predictability on these time scales. Predictability was also linked to various low-frequency atmospheric phenomena such as the annular modes in high latitudes (including their connections to the stratosphere), the Pacific/North American pattern, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. I will end the talk by summarizing the recommendations and plans that have been put forward for accelerating progress on the subseasonal prediction problem.

Tree-ring based reconstructions of interannual to decadal scale precipitation variability for northeastern Utah since 1226 A.D.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gray, S.T.; Jackson, S.T.; Betancourt, J.L.

2004-01-01

Samples from 107 pin??on pines (Pinus edulis) at four sites were used to develop a proxy record of annual (June to June) precipitation spanning the 1226 to 2001 AD interval for the Uinta Basin Watershed of northeastern Utah. The reconstruction reveals significant precipitation variability at interannual to decadal scales. Single-year dry events before the instrumental period tended to be more severe than those after 1900. In general, decadal scale dry events were longer and more severe prior to 1900. In particular, dry events in the late 13th, 16th, and 18th Centuries surpass the magnitude and duration of droughts seen in the Uinta Basin after 1900. The last four decades of the 20th Century also represent one of the wettest periods in the reconstruction. The proxy record indicates that the instrumental record (approximately 1900 to the Present) underestimates the potential frequency and severity of severe, sustained droughts in this area, while over representing the prominence of wet episodes. In the longer record, the empirical probability of any decadal scale drought exceeding the duration of the 1954 through 1964 drought is 94 percent, while the probability for any wet event exceeding the duration of the 1965 through 1999 wet spell is only 1 percent. Hence, estimates of future water availability in the Uinta Basin and forecasts for exports to the Colorado River, based on the 1961 to 1990 and 1971 to 2000 "normal" periods, may be overly optimistic.

High nutrient pulses, tidal mixing and biological response in a small California estuary: Variability in nutrient concentrations from decadal to hourly time scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Caffrey, J.M.; Chapin, T.P.; Jannasch, H.W.; Haskins, J.C.

2007-01-01

Elkhorn Slough is a small estuary in Central California, where nutrient inputs are dominated by runoff from agricultural row crops, a golf course, and residential development. We examined the variability in nutrient concentrations from decadal to hourly time scales in Elkhorn Slough to compare forcing by physical and biological factors. Hourly data were collected using in situ nitrate analyzers and water quality data sondes, and two decades of monthly monitoring data were analyzed. Nutrient concentrations increased from the mid 1970s to 1990s as pastures and woodlands were converted to row crops and population increased in the watershed. Climatic variability was also a significant factor controlling interannual nutrient variability, with higher nutrient concentrations during wet than drought years. Elkhorn Slough has a Mediterranean climate with dry and rainy seasons. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) concentrations were relatively low (10-70 ??mol L-1) during the dry season and high (20-160 ??mol L-1) during the rainy season. Dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIP) concentrations showed the inverse pattern, with higher concentrations during the dry season. Pulsed runoff events were a consistent feature controlling nitrate concentrations during the rainy season. Peak nitrate concentrations lagged runoff events by 1 to 6 days. Tidal exchange with Monterey Bay was also an important process controlling nutrient concentrations, particularly near the mouth of the Slough. Biological processes had the greatest effect on nitrate concentrations during the dry season and were less important during the rainy season. While primary production was enhanced by nutrient pulses, chlorophyll a concentrations were not. We believe that the generally weak biological response compared to the strong physical forcing in Elkhorn Slough occurred because the short residence time and tidal mixing rapidly diluted nutrient pulses. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Water Stress on U.S. Power Production at Decadal Time Horizons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganguli, P.; Kumar, D.; Yun, J.; Short, G.; Klausner, J.; Ganguly, A. R.

2014-12-01

Thermoelectric power production at risk, owing to current and projected water scarcity and rising stream temperatures, is assessed for the continental United States (US) at decadal scales. Regional water scarcity is driven by climate variability and change, as well as by multi-sector water demand. While a planning horizon of zero to about thirty years is occasionally prescribed by stakeholders, the challenges to risk assessment at these scales include the difficulty in delineating decadal climate trends from intrinsic natural or multiple model variability. Current generation global climate or earth system models are not credible at the spatial resolutions of power plants, especially for surface water quantity and stream temperatures, which further exacerbates the assessment challenge. Population changes, which are anyway difficult to project, cannot serve as adequate proxies for changes in the water demand across sectors. The hypothesis that robust assessments of power production at risks are possible, despite the uncertainties, has been examined as a proof of concept. An approach is presented for delineating water scarcity and temperature from climate models, observations and population storylines, as well as for assessing power production at risk by examining geospatial correlations of power plant locations within regions where the usable water supply for energy production happens to be scarcer and warmer. Acknowledgment: Funding provided by US DOE's ARPA-E through Award DE-AR0000374.

Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Steven J.; Edmonds, James; Hartin, Corinne A.; Mundra, Anupriya; Calvin, Katherine

2015-04-01

Anthropogenically driven climate changes, which are expected to impact human and natural systems, are often expressed in terms of global-mean temperature. The rate of climate change over multi-decadal scales is also important, with faster rates of change resulting in less time for human and natural systems to adapt. We find that present trends in greenhouse-gas and aerosol emissions are now moving the Earth system into a regime in terms of multi-decadal rates of change that are unprecedented for at least the past 1,000 years. The rate of global-mean temperature increase in the CMIP5 (ref. ) archive over 40-year periods increases to 0.25 +/- 0.05 °C (1σ) per decade by 2020, an average greater than peak rates of change during the previous one to two millennia. Regional rates of change in Europe, North America and the Arctic are higher than the global average. Research on the impacts of such near-term rates of change is urgently needed.

A Century Trend of Precipitation in Forest Watersheds from the Lower Mississippi River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, G.; Ouyang, Y.; Leininger, T.; Han, Y.

2017-12-01

Estimates of hydrological processes in forest watersheds are essential to water supply planning, water quality protection, water resources management, and ecological restoration; whereas the century precipitation variation due to climate change could exacerbate forest watershed hydrological processes and add uncertainties to the processes. In this study, the multivariate statisitcal analysis technique was employed to identify a century temporal trend of precipitation in forest watersheds from the Lower Mississippi River Basin (LMRB). Seveal surface water monitoring stations in the LMRB, located in forest watersheds with very little land use disturbance and a century record, were selected to obtain precipitation data. Using frequency distribution analysis with HYDSTRA model, we found that the mean annual precipitation in a decadal scale increased as time elapsed over a 100-year period. Our study further revealed that the precipitation intensity for one-hour duration increased sigificantly in every 10 years for a 100-year period. During this period, the annual mean dry day frequency decreased in a decadal scale, whereas the annual mean wet day frequency increased for the same scale. Results indicated the precipitation pattern has been altered in the LMRB and the selected forest watersheds in this basin seems to become wetter during the past 100 years as a result of climate change.

Limits on an energy dependence of the speed of light from a flare of the active galaxy PKS 2155-304.

PubMed

Aharonian, F; Akhperjanian, A G; Barres de Almeida, U; Bazer-Bachi, A R; Becherini, Y; Behera, B; Beilicke, M; Benbow, W; Bernlöhr, K; Boisson, C; Bochow, A; Borrel, V; Braun, I; Brion, E; Brucker, J; Brun, P; Bühler, R; Bulik, T; Büsching, I; Boutelier, T; Carrigan, S; Chadwick, P M; Charbonnier, A; Chaves, R C G; Chounet, L-M; Clapson, A C; Coignet, G; Costamante, L; Dalton, M; Degrange, B; Deil, C; Dickinson, H J; Djannati-Ataï, A; Domainko, W; Drury, L O'C; Dubois, F; Dubus, G; Dyks, J; Egberts, K; Emmanoulopoulos, D; Espigat, P; Farnier, C; Feinstein, F; Fiasson, A; Förster, A; Fontaine, G; Füssling, M; Gabici, S; Gallant, Y A; Gérard, L; Giebels, B; Glicenstein, J F; Glück, B; Goret, P; Hadjichristidis, C; Hauser, D; Hauser, M; Heinz, S; Heinzelmann, G; Henri, G; Hermann, G; Hinton, J A; Hoffmann, A; Hofmann, W; Holleran, M; Hoppe, S; Horns, D; Jacholkowska, A; de Jager, O C; Jung, I; Katarzyński, K; Kaufmann, S; Kendziorra, E; Kerschhaggl, M; Khangulyan, D; Khélifi, B; Keogh, D; Komin, Nu; Kosack, K; Lamanna, G; Lenain, J-P; Lohse, T; Marandon, V; Martin, J M; Martineau-Huynh, O; Marcowith, A; Maurin, D; McComb, T J L; Medina, C; Moderski, R; Moulin, E; Naumann-Godo, M; de Naurois, M; Nedbal, D; Nekrassov, D; Niemiec, J; Nolan, S J; Ohm, S; Olive, J-F; de Oña Wilhelmi, E; Orford, K J; Osborne, J L; Ostrowski, M; Panter, M; Pedaletti, G; Pelletier, G; Petrucci, P-O; Pita, S; Pühlhofer, G; Punch, M; Quirrenbach, A; Raubenheimer, B C; Raue, M; Rayner, S M; Renaud, M; Rieger, F; Ripken, J; Rob, L; Rosier-Lees, S; Rowell, G; Rudak, B; Ruppel, J; Sahakian, V; Santangelo, A; Schlickeiser, R; Schöck, F M; Schröder, R; Schwanke, U; Schwarzburg, S; Schwemmer, S; Shalchi, A; Skilton, J L; Sol, H; Spangler, D; Stawarz, Ł; Steenkamp, R; Stegmann, C; Superina, G; Tam, P H; Tavernet, J-P; Terrier, R; Tibolla, O; van Eldik, C; Vasileiadis, G; Venter, C; Vialle, J P; Vincent, P; Vivier, M; Völk, H J; Volpe, F; Wagner, S J; Ward, M; Zdziarski, A A; Zech, A

2008-10-24

In the past few decades, several models have predicted an energy dependence of the speed of light in the context of quantum gravity. For cosmological sources such as active galaxies, this minuscule effect can add up to measurable photon-energy dependent time lags. In this Letter a search for such time lags during the High Energy Stereoscopic System observations of the exceptional very high energy flare of the active galaxy PKS 2155-304 on 28 July 2006 is presented. Since no significant time lag is found, lower limits on the energy scale of speed of light modifications are derived.

The MST radar technique: Requirements for operational weather forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larsen, M. F.

1983-01-01

There is a feeling that the accuracy of mesoscale forecasts for spatial scales of less than 1000 km and time scales of less than 12 hours can be improved significantly if resources are applied to the problem in an intensive effort over the next decade. Since the most dangerous and damaging types of weather occur at these scales, there are major advantages to be gained if such a program is successful. The interest in improving short term forecasting is evident. The technology at the present time is sufficiently developed, both in terms of new observing systems and the computing power to handle the observations, to warrant an intensive effort to improve stormscale forecasting. An assessment of the extent to which the so-called MST radar technique fulfills the requirements for an operational mesoscale observing network is reviewed and the extent to which improvements in various types of forecasting could be expected if such a network is put into operation are delineated.

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: A Measurement of the Primordial Power Spectrum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hlozek, Renee; Dunkley, Joanna; Addison, Graeme; Appel, John William; Bond, J. Richard; Carvalho, C. Sofia; Das, Sudeep; Devlin, Mark J.; Duenner, Rolando; Essinger-Hileman, Thomas;

Information transfer across the scales of climate variability: The effect of the 7-8 year cycle on the annual and interannual scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palus, Milan; Jajcay, Nikola; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Kravtsov, Sergey; Tsonis, Anastasios

2016-04-01

Complexity of the climate system stems not only from the fact that it is variable over a huge range of spatial and temporal scales, but also from the nonlinear character of the climate system that leads to interactions of dynamics across scales. The dynamical processes on large time scales influence variability on shorter time scales. This nonlinear phenomenon of cross-scale causal interactions can be observed due to the recently introduced methodology [1] which starts with a wavelet decomposition of a multi-scale signal into quasi-oscillatory modes of a limited bandwidth, described using their instantaneous phases and amplitudes. Then their statistical associations are tested in order to search for interactions across time scales. An information-theoretic formulation of the generalized, nonlinear Granger causality [2] uncovers causal influence and information transfer from large-scale modes of climate variability with characteristic time scales from years to almost a decade to regional temperature variability on short time scales. In analyses of air temperature records from various European locations, a quasioscillatory phenomenon with the period around 7-8 years has been identified as the factor influencing variability of surface air temperature (SAT) on shorter time scales. Its influence on the amplitude of the SAT annual cycle was estimated in the range 0.7-1.4 °C and the effect on the overall variability of the SAT anomalies (SATA) leads to the changes 1.5-1.7 °C in the annual SATA means. The strongest effect of the 7-8 year cycle was observed in the winter SATA means where it reaches 4-5 °C in central European station and reanalysis data [3]. This study is supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic within the Program KONTAKT II, Project No. LH14001. [1] M. Palus, Phys. Rev. Lett. 112 078702 (2014) [2] M. Palus, M. Vejmelka, Phys. Rev. E 75, 056211 (2007) [3] N. Jajcay, J. Hlinka, S. Kravtsov, A. A. Tsonis, M. Palus, Time-scales of the European surface air temperature variability: The role of the 7-8 year cycle. Geophys. Res. Lett., in press, DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067325

Cross-biome transplants of plant litter show decomposition models extend to a broader climatic range but lose predictability at the decadal time scale

Treesearch

William S. Currie; Mark E. Harmon; Ingrid C. Burke; Stephen C. Hart; William J. Parton; Whendee L. Silver

2009-01-01

We analyzed results from 10-year long field incubations of foliar and fine root litter from the Long-term lntersite Decomposition Experiment Team (LIDET) study. We tested whether a variety of climate and litter quality variables could be used to develop regression models of decomposition parameters across wide ranges in litter quality and climate and whether these...

Short-term climate change impacts on Mara basin hydrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demaria, E. M.; Roy, T.; Valdés, J. B.; Lyon, B.; Valdés-Pineda, R.; Serrat-Capdevila, A.; Durcik, M.; Gupta, H.

2017-12-01

The predictability of climate diminishes significantly at shorter time scales (e.g. decadal). Both natural variability as well as sampling variability of climate can obscure or enhance climate change signals in these shorter scales. Therefore, in order to assess the impacts of climate change on basin hydrology, it is important to design climate projections with exhaustive climate scenarios. In this study, we first create seasonal climate scenarios by combining (1) synthetic precipitation projections generated from a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model using the University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit (UEA-CRU) data with (2) seasonal trends calculated from 31 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP). The seasonal climate projections are then disaggregated to daily level using the Agricultural Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (AgMERRA) data. The daily climate data are then bias-corrected and used as forcings to the land-surface model, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), to generate different hydrological projections for the Mara River basin in East Africa, which are then evaluated to study the hydrologic changes in the basin in the next three decades (2020-2050).

Protein complexes, big data, machine learning and integrative proteomics: lessons learned over a decade of systematic analysis of protein interaction networks.

PubMed

Havugimana, Pierre C; Hu, Pingzhao; Emili, Andrew

2017-10-01

Elucidation of the networks of physical (functional) interactions present in cells and tissues is fundamental for understanding the molecular organization of biological systems, the mechanistic basis of essential and disease-related processes, and for functional annotation of previously uncharacterized proteins (via guilt-by-association or -correlation). After a decade in the field, we felt it timely to document our own experiences in the systematic analysis of protein interaction networks. Areas covered: Researchers worldwide have contributed innovative experimental and computational approaches that have driven the rapidly evolving field of 'functional proteomics'. These include mass spectrometry-based methods to characterize macromolecular complexes on a global-scale and sophisticated data analysis tools - most notably machine learning - that allow for the generation of high-quality protein association maps. Expert commentary: Here, we recount some key lessons learned, with an emphasis on successful workflows, and challenges, arising from our own and other groups' ongoing efforts to generate, interpret and report proteome-scale interaction networks in increasingly diverse biological contexts.

Towards decadal soil salinity mapping using Landsat time series data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fan, Xingwang; Weng, Yongling; Tao, Jinmei

2016-10-01

Salinization is one of the major soil problems around the world. However, decadal variation in soil salinization has not yet been extensively reported. This study exploited thirty years (1985-2015) of Landsat sensor data, including Landsat-4/5 TM (Thematic Mapper), Landsat-7 ETM+ (Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus) and Landsat-8 OLI (Operational Land Imager), for monitoring soil salinity of the Yellow River Delta, China. The data were initially corrected for atmospheric effects, and then matched the spectral bands of EO-1 (Earth Observing One) ALI (Advanced Land Imager). Subsequently, soil salinity maps were derived with a previously developed PLSR (Partial Least Square Regression) model. On intra-annual scale, the retrievals showed that soil salinity increased in February, stabilized in March, and decreased in April. On inter-annual scale, soil salinity decreased within 1985-2000 (-0.74 g kg-1/10a, p < 0.001), and increased within 2000-2015 (0.79 g kg-1/10a, p < 0.001). Our study presents a new perspective for use of multiple Landsat data in soil salinity retrieval, and further the understanding of soil salinization development over the Yellow River Delta.

Multi-decadal to centennial scale variations in sea surface temperature off southeast Korea over the last 2000 yr

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, K. E.; Park, W.; Bae, S. W.; Nam, S. I.

2016-12-01

We have reconstructed variations in sea surface temperature (SST) for the last 2000 yr by using the alkenone unsaturation index of marine sediments of cores TY2010 PC4 and ARA/ES 03-01 GC01 recovered from the southwestern part of the East Sea. The core site is chracterized by very high sedimentation rate so that a new high-resolution continuous SST record can be reconstructed with an average temporal resolution of 2-7 years. The core top alkenone temperature (20.5°C) is higher than the annual averaged in situ SST (18 °C) and it corresponds to those of summer to autumn. During the last 2000 yr, the alkenone temperatures exhibited fluctuations on multi-decadal to centennial time scales. The temperatures were relatively warm fluctuating between 19.6°C and 21°C on centennial time scale during the period of AD 0- 1200. There were two evident cold periods: AD 1200-1400 and AD 1600-1800. The lowest temperature (approximately 18°C) occurred at AD 1290 and AD 1650. The temperatures increased toward 20 centry, which is consistent with anthropogenic global warming. Results of singular spectrum analysis of the last 2000 yr SST record suggest that there is characteristic periodicity of 100 yr and 160 yr and 50-60 yr, which can be natural variability of climate system. In addition, a comparison of the SST record with global volcanic forcing data shows that volcanic events also can be correlated to the distinct cooling events.

Elimination of Plasmodium vivax Malaria in Azerbaijan

PubMed Central

Mammadov, Suleyman; Gasimov, Elkhan; Kurdova-Mintcheva, Rossitza; Wongsrichanalai, Chansuda

2016-01-01

Azerbaijan in the south caucasus region of far southeastern Europe has a long history of malaria endemicity but just successfully eliminated local transmission. After a period of relatively stable malaria situation (1960–1970), the country witnessed an epidemic followed by a series of outbreaks of various magnitudes in the following two decades, all caused by Plasmodium vivax. Compared with 1993, the number of malaria cases in the country jumped 29 times in 1994, 123 times in 1995, and 571 times in 1996 at the peak of the epidemic, when 13,135 cases were officially registered. Incidence rate increased dramatically from 0.2/100,000 population in 1991 to over 17/100,000 population in 1996. Scaled-up malaria control led to the containment of the epidemic and to a dramatic decrease of malaria burden nationwide. Azerbaijan has applied contemporary, complex control and surveillance strategies and approaches and is currently in the prevention of reintroduction phase. This article describes Azerbaijan's public health experience in conducting malaria control and elimination interventions over several decades until 2013 when the country reached an important milestone—no indigenous malaria cases were recorded. PMID:27708184

Trends in scale and shape of survival curves.

PubMed

Weon, Byung Mook; Je, Jung Ho

2012-01-01

The ageing of the population is an issue in wealthy countries worldwide because of increasing costs for health care and welfare. Survival curves taken from demographic life tables may help shed light on the hypotheses that humans are living longer and that human populations are growing older. We describe a methodology that enables us to obtain separate measurements of scale and shape variances in survival curves. Specifically, 'living longer' is associated with the scale variance of survival curves, whereas 'growing older' is associated with the shape variance. We show how the scale and shape of survival curves have changed over time during recent decades, based on period and cohort female life tables for selected wealthy countries. Our methodology will be useful for performing better tracking of ageing statistics and it is possible that this methodology can help identify the causes of current trends in human ageing.

The science of visual analysis at extreme scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowell, Lucy T.

2011-01-01

Driven by market forces and spanning the full spectrum of computational devices, computer architectures are changing in ways that present tremendous opportunities and challenges for data analysis and visual analytic technologies. Leadership-class high performance computing system will have as many as a million cores by 2020 and support 10 billion-way concurrency, while laptop computers are expected to have as many as 1,000 cores by 2015. At the same time, data of all types are increasing exponentially and automated analytic methods are essential for all disciplines. Many existing analytic technologies do not scale to make full use of current platforms and fewer still are likely to scale to the systems that will be operational by the end of this decade. Furthermore, on the new architectures and for data at extreme scales, validating the accuracy and effectiveness of analytic methods, including visual analysis, will be increasingly important.

Circumpolar spatio-temporal patterns and contributing climatic factors of wildfire activity in the Arctic tundra from 2001-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masrur, Arif; Petrov, Andrey N.; DeGroote, John

2018-01-01

Recent years have seen an increased frequency of wildfire events in different parts of Arctic tundra ecosystems. Contemporary studies have largely attributed these wildfire events to the Arctic’s rapidly changing climate and increased atmospheric disturbances (i.e. thunderstorms). However, existing research has primarily examined the wildfire-climate dynamics of individual large wildfire events. No studies have investigated wildfire activity, including climatic drivers, for the entire tundra biome across multiple years, i.e. at the planetary scale. To address this limitation, this paper provides a planetary/circumpolar scale analyses of space-time patterns of tundra wildfire occurrence and climatic association in the Arctic over a 15 year period (2001-2015). In doing so, we have leveraged and analyzed NASA Terra’s MODIS active fire and MERRA climate reanalysis products at multiple temporal scales (decadal, seasonal and monthly). Our exploratory spatial data analysis found that tundra wildfire occurrence was spatially clustered and fire intensity was spatially autocorrelated across the Arctic regions. Most of the wildfire events occurred in the peak summer months (June-August). Our multi-temporal (decadal, seasonal and monthly) scale analyses provide further support to the link between climate variability and wildfire activity. Specifically, we found that warm and dry conditions in the late spring to mid-summer influenced tundra wildfire occurrence, spatio-temporal distribution, and fire intensity. Additionally, reduced average surface precipitation and soil moisture levels in the winter-spring period were associated with increased fire intensity in the following summer. These findings enrich contemporary knowledge on tundra wildfire’s spatial and seasonal patterns, and shed new light on tundra wildfire-climate relationships in the circumpolar context. Furthermore, this first pan-Arctic analysis provides a strong incentive and direction for future studies which integrate multiple datasets (i.e. climate, fuels, topography, and ignition sources) to accurately estimate carbon emission from tundra burning and its global climate feedbacks in coming decades.

Recent changes of sediment flux to the western Pacific Ocean from major rivers in East and Southeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Houjie; Saito, Yoshiki; Zhang, Yong; Bi, Naishuang; Sun, Xiaoxiao; Yang, Zuosheng

2011-09-01

The five largest rivers in East and Southeast Asia (Yellow, Yangtze, Pearl, Red and Mekong) are important contributors of terrigenous sediment to the western Pacific Ocean. Although they have annually delivered ~ 2000 × 10 9 kg of sediment to the ocean since 1000 yr BP, they presently contribute only ~ 600 × 10 9 kg/yr, which is reverting to a level typical of the relatively undisturbed watersheds before the rise in human activities in East and Southeast Asia at 2000 yr BP. During the most recent decades flow regulation by dams and sediment entrapment by reservoirs, as well as human-influenced soil erosion in the river basins, have sharply reduced the sediment delivered from the large river basins to the ocean. We constructed a time series of data on annual water discharges and sediment fluxes from these large rivers to the western Pacific Ocean covering the period 1950-2008. These data indicate that the short-term (interannual scale) variation of sediment flux is dominated by natural climatic oscillations such as the El Niño/La Niña cycle and that anthropogenic causes involving dams and land use control the long-term (decadal scale) decrease in sediment flux to the ocean. In contrast to the relatively slow historical increase in sediment flux during the period 2000-1000 yr BP, the recent sediment flux has been decreased at an accelerating rate over centennial scales. The alterations of these large river systems by both natural and anthropogenic forcing present severe environmental challenges in the coastal ocean, including the sinking of deltas and declines in coastal wetland areas due to the decreasing sediment supply. Our work thus provides a regional perspective on the large river-derived sediment flux to the ocean over millennial and decadal scales, which will be important for understanding and managing the present and future trends of delivery of terrigenous sediment to the ocean in the context of global change.

Beach-ridge sedimentology as an archive of terrestrial climate change: Insights from a geochemical and stratigraphic study of the Tijucas Strandplain, southern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krask, J. L.; Hein, C. J.; Galy, V.; FitzGerald, D.; Henrique de Fontoura Klein, A.

2017-12-01

Whereas millennial-scale variations in climate forcing drives changes in terrestrial processes, which are in turn directly linked to fluvial sediment loads (e.g., weathering and erosion), the impact of decadal- to centennial- scale climate fluctuations on downstream coastal sedimentation patterns and landscape evolution remains unclear. Specifically, the connection between long-term (decades or more) precipitation seasonality and sediment export from river systems has not been established. This study examines the manner in which sub-millennial-scale fluctuations in precipitation over river catchments may be recorded in coastal progradational sedimentary archives. The 5-km wide Tijucas Strandplain (southern Brazil) formed over the last 5800 years through the rapid reworking of sediment discharged from the Tijucas River in a regime of falling sea level. In an overall regime shift from sand- to mud- dominance (linked to a long-term reduction in wave energy caused by bay shoaling) are nearly 70 distinct transitions between shore-parallel sand- and mud- dominated facies. Bulk organic carbon and terrestrial plant-wax fatty acid stable hydrogen (δD) and carbon (δ13C) isotopic measurements from sediments from select sandy and muddy ridges across the plain reveal that these two sedimentological regimes are geochemically distinct. Specifically, waxes from sediments deposited during periods of sandy progradation had δD values, on average, >10 ‰ higher than those from mud-dominated periods, indicating that these sedimentary units reflect different hydroclimatic conditions within the river drainage basin at the time of deposition. Comparison of plant wax isotopic signatures of river, bay, and beach sediments during the current period of mud-dominated progradation reveals a close correlation with earlier periods of mud deposition within the Tijucas Strandplain. Thus, decadal- to centennial- scale sedimentologic transitions within the plain are interpreted to reflect climate-driven changes in mud export rates, as product of modifications in river basin vegetation and soil formation and erosional processes.

On the use of satellite VEGETATION time series for monitoring post fire vegetation recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Santis, F.; Didonna, I.

2009-04-01

Fire is one of the most critical factors of disturbance in worldwide ecosystems. The effects of fires on soil, plants, landscape and ecosystems depend on many factors, among them fire frequency, fire severity and plant resistance. The characterization of vegetation post-fire behaviour is a fundamental issue to model and evaluate the fire resilience, which the ability of vegetation to recover after fire. Recent changes in fire regime, due to abandonment of local land use practice and climate change, can induce significant variations in vegetation fire resilience. In the Mediterranean-type communities, post fire vegetation trends have been analysed in a wide range of habitats, although pre- and post-fire investigation has been widely performed at stand level. But, factors controlling regeneration at the landscape scale are less well known. In this study, a time series of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data derived from SPOT-VEGETATION was used to examine the recovery characteristics of fire affected vegetation in some test areas of the Mediterranean ecosystems of Southern Italy. The vegetation indices operate by contrasting intense chlorophyll pigment absorption in the red against the high reflectance of leaf mesophyll in the near infrared. SPOT-VEGETATION Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 1998 to 2005 were analyzed in order to evaluate the resilient effects in a some significant test sites of southern Italy. In particular, we considered: (i) one stable area site, one site affected by one fire during the investigated time window, (iii) one site affected by two consecutive fires during the investigated time window. In order to eliminate the phenological fluctuations, for each decadal composition of each pixel, we focused on the departure NDVId = [NDVI - ]/, where is the decadal mean and  is the decadal standard deviation. The decadal mean and the standard deviation were calculated for each decade, e.g. 1st decade of January, by averaging over all years in the record. We analyzed both: 1) Time variation of NDVI from 1998 to 2005 of pixels for the fire affected and fire unaffected areas. 2) Post-fire NDVI spatial patterns on each image date were compared to the pre-fire pattern to determine the extent to which the pre-fire pattern was re-established, and the rate of this recovery. Results show the ability of vegetation to recovery after a single fire. Nevertheless, such ability can be strongly reduced by successive fires. The recursive fire occurrence can significantly diminish the green biomass especially when disturbances occur at short intervals of time.

Centennial- to decadal scale environmental shifts in and around Lake Pannon (Vienna Basin) related to a major Late Miocene lake level rise

PubMed Central

Harzhauser, Mathias; Kern, Andrea; Soliman, Ali; Minati, Klaus; Piller, Werner E.; Danielopol, Dan L.; Zuschin, Martin

2010-01-01

A detailed ultra-high-resolution analysis of a 37-cm-long core of Upper Miocene lake sediments of the long-lived Lake Pannon has been performed. Despite a general stable climate at c. 11–9 Ma, several high-frequency oscillations of the paleoenvironments and depositional environments are revealed by the analysis over a short time span of less than 1000 years. Shifts of the lake level, associated with one major 3rd order flooding are reflected by all organisms by a cascade of environmental changes on a decadal scale. Within a few decades, the pollen record documents shifting vegetation zones due to the landward migration of the coast; the dinoflagellate assemblages switch towards “offshore-type” due to the increasing distance to the shore; the benthos is affected by low oxygen conditions due to the deepening. This general trend is interrupted by smaller scale cycles, which lack this tight interconnection. Especially, the pollen data document a clear cyclicity that is expressed by iterative low pollen concentration events. These “negative” cycles are partly reflected by dinoflagellate blooms suggesting a common trigger-mechanism and a connection between terrestrial environments and surface waters of Lake Pannon. The benthic fauna of the core, however, does not reflect these surface water cycles. This forcing mechanism is not understood yet but periodic climatic fluctuations are favoured as hypothesis instead of further lake level changes. Short phases of low precipitation, reducing pollen production and suppressing effective transport by local streams, might be a plausible mechanism. This study is the first hint towards solar activity related high-frequency climate changes during the Vallesian (Late Miocene) around Lake Pannon and should encourage further ultra-high-resolution analyses in the area. PMID:21179376

The physics of rainclouds, what is behind rainfall trends?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Junkermann, Wolfgang; Hacker, Jorg

2017-04-01

In several locations in the world rainfall was significantly declining during the last four decades since about 1970, despite during the same timespan the water vapor availability in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) was increasing by about five percent. Increasing water vapor levels in the PBL are a result of climate change and well in agreement with the observed one degree increase of air temperature over the oceans. Increasing water vapor availability due to an increase in evaporation should lead to a higher turnover rate within the hydrological cycle, which should result either in more frequent or in more intense rainfall. Several regional observations especially along the Australian coastline show a contrary picture. Often rainfall is less frequent and the annual rainfall is declining. Also the number of rainy days goes down. This behavior could be caused by a number of different processes affecting both, the amount of liquid water in the atmosphere and the microphysical properties of clouds. Within the discussions are: -A change in the large scale advection patterns due to global warming, shifting the trajectories of low pressure systems, a slow process that takes several decades. -A change in land use by deforestation leading to lower roughness, higher albedo and lower convective energy. Such a land use change might happen within about one decade (e.g. Western Australia). -A change in aerosol abundance. Addition of anthropogenic cloud condensation nuclei lead instantly to smaller cloud droplets and subsequently to a regional to continental scale redistribution of rainfall within the time scales of cloud lifetime (hours to days). Airborne experiments show that indeed the number of aerosols in several of the respective areas investigated up to now was increasing roughly in time with the observed rainfall changes. However, only in few of the areas the availability of historical aerosol data is sufficient for a more detailed investigation. We show results from experiments in search for physical reasons for a regional scale rainfall decline observed along the Australian coastline. Here the historical database including an airborne survey in the early 70's allows to reconstruct a 'laboratory' notebook an aerosol trends. This makes the area a perfect 'natural laboratory' for such studies on the physical background for climate change trends and to disentangle different climate / hydrological cycle relevant physical processes.

Biological consequences of ENSO: What have we learned recently?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavez, F.; Messié, M.

2013-12-01

A comprehensive theory regarding the biological response to El Niño was developed from observations during the 1982-83 event. The theory has withstood the test of time but additional information from remote sensing and growing in situ databases has allowed for a more comprehensive evaluation of the biological consequences of the full ENSO cycle on global scales and in relation to other climatic variability and change. Here we review the major developments over the past few decades that include a greater appreciation for the cool or La Niña phase and the relation of ENSO to other climatic variability including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. The use of ENSO as an analog for biological consequences of a warmer world is also discussed.

A design for integration.

PubMed

Fenna, D

1977-09-01

For nearly two decades, the development of computerized information systems has struggled for acceptable compromises between the unattainable "total system" and the unacceptable separate applications. Integration of related applications is essential if the computer is to be exploited fully, yet relative simplicity is necessary for systems to be implemented in a reasonable time-scale. This paper discusses a system being progressively developed from minimal beginnings but which, from the outset, had a highly flexible and fully integrated system basis. The system is for batch processing, but can accommodate on-line data input; it is similar in its approach to many transaction-processing real-time systems.

Time-dependent shock acceleration of particles. Effect of the time-dependent injection, with application to supernova remnants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petruk, O.; Kopytko, B.

2016-11-01

Three approaches are considered to solve the equation which describes the time-dependent diffusive shock acceleration of test particles at the non-relativistic shocks. At first, the solution of Drury for the particle distribution function at the shock is generalized to any relation between the acceleration time-scales upstream and downstream and for the time-dependent injection efficiency. Three alternative solutions for the spatial dependence of the distribution function are derived. Then, the two other approaches to solve the time-dependent equation are presented, one of which does not require the Laplace transform. At the end, our more general solution is discussed, with a particular attention to the time-dependent injection in supernova remnants. It is shown that, comparing to the case with the dominant upstream acceleration time-scale, the maximum momentum of accelerated particles shifts towards the smaller momenta with increase of the downstream acceleration time-scale. The time-dependent injection affects the shape of the particle spectrum. In particular, (I) the power-law index is not solely determined by the shock compression, in contrast to the stationary solution; (II) the larger the injection efficiency during the first decades after the supernova explosion, the harder the particle spectrum around the high-energy cutoff at the later times. This is important, in particular, for interpretation of the radio and gamma-ray observations of supernova remnants, as demonstrated on a number of examples.

Tracking Expected Improvements of Decadal Prediction in Climate Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suckling, E.; Thompson, E.; Smith, L. A.

2013-12-01

Physics-based simulation models are ultimately expected to provide the best available (decision-relevant) probabilistic climate predictions, as they can capture the dynamics of the Earth System across a range of situations, situations for which observations for the construction of empirical models are scant if not nonexistent. This fact in itself provides neither evidence that predictions from today's Earth Systems Models will outperform today's empirical models, nor a guide to the space and time scales on which today's model predictions are adequate for a given purpose. Empirical (data-based) models are employed to make probability forecasts on decadal timescales. The skill of these forecasts is contrasted with that of state-of-the-art climate models, and the challenges faced by each approach are discussed. The focus is on providing decision-relevant probability forecasts for decision support. An empirical model, known as Dynamic Climatology is shown to be competitive with CMIP5 climate models on decadal scale probability forecasts. Contrasting the skill of simulation models not only with each other but also with empirical models can reveal the space and time scales on which a generation of simulation models exploits their physical basis effectively. It can also quantify their ability to add information in the formation of operational forecasts. Difficulties (i) of information contamination (ii) of the interpretation of probabilistic skill and (iii) of artificial skill complicate each modelling approach, and are discussed. "Physics free" empirical models provide fixed, quantitative benchmarks for the evaluation of ever more complex climate models, that is not available from (inter)comparisons restricted to only complex models. At present, empirical models can also provide a background term for blending in the formation of probability forecasts from ensembles of simulation models. In weather forecasting this role is filled by the climatological distribution, and can significantly enhance the value of longer lead-time weather forecasts to those who use them. It is suggested that the direct comparison of simulation models with empirical models become a regular component of large model forecast intercomparison and evaluation. This would clarify the extent to which a given generation of state-of-the-art simulation models provide information beyond that available from simpler empirical models. It would also clarify current limitations in using simulation forecasting for decision support. No model-based probability forecast is complete without a quantitative estimate if its own irrelevance; this estimate is likely to increase as a function of lead time. A lack of decision-relevant quantitative skill would not bring the science-based foundation of anthropogenic warming into doubt. Similar levels of skill with empirical models does suggest a clear quantification of limits, as a function of lead time, for spatial and temporal scales on which decisions based on such model output are expected to prove maladaptive. Failing to clearly state such weaknesses of a given generation of simulation models, while clearly stating their strength and their foundation, risks the credibility of science in support of policy in the long term.

Self-affinity in the dengue fever time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azevedo, S. M.; Saba, H.; Miranda, J. G. V.; Filho, A. S. Nascimento; Moret, M. A.

2016-06-01

Dengue is a complex public health problem that is common in tropical and subtropical regions. This disease has risen substantially in the last three decades, and the physical symptoms depict the self-affine behavior of the occurrences of reported dengue cases in Bahia, Brazil. This study uses detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) to verify the scale behavior in a time series of dengue cases and to evaluate the long-range correlations that are characterized by the power law α exponent for different cities in Bahia, Brazil. The scaling exponent (α) presents different long-range correlations, i.e. uncorrelated, anti-persistent, persistent and diffusive behaviors. The long-range correlations highlight the complex behavior of the time series of this disease. The findings show that there are two distinct types of scale behavior. In the first behavior, the time series presents a persistent α exponent for a one-month period. For large periods, the time series signal approaches subdiffusive behavior. The hypothesis of the long-range correlations in the time series of the occurrences of reported dengue cases was validated. The observed self-affinity is useful as a forecasting tool for future periods through extrapolation of the α exponent behavior. This complex system has a higher predictability in a relatively short time (approximately one month), and it suggests a new tool in epidemiological control strategies. However, predictions for large periods using DFA are hidden by the subdiffusive behavior.

Relative importance of time, land use and lithology on determining aquifer-scale denitrification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolbe, Tamara; de Dreuzy, Jean-Raynald; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Marçais, Jean; Babey, Tristan; Thomas, Zahra; Peiffer, Stefan; Aquilina, Luc; Labasque, Thierry; Laverman, Anniet; Fleckenstein, Jan; Boulvais, Philippe; Pinay, Gilles

2017-04-01

Unconfined shallow aquifers are commonly contaminated by nitrate in agricultural regions, because of excess fertilizer application over the last decades. Watershed studies have indicated that 1) changes in agricultural practices have caused changes in nitrate input over time, 2) denitrification occurs in localized hotspots within the aquifer, and 3) heterogeneous groundwater flow circulation has led to strong nitrate gradients in aquifers that are not yet well understood. In this study we investigated the respective influence of land use, groundwater transit time distribution, and hotspot distribution on groundwater denitrification with a particular interest on how a detailed understanding of transit time distributions could be used to upscale the point denitrification measurements to the aquifer-scale. We measured CFC-based groundwater age, oxygen, nitrate, and dinitrogen gas excess in 16 agricultural wells of an unconfined crystalline aquifer in Brittany, France. Groundwater age data was used to calibrate a mechanistic groundwater flow model of the study site. Historical nitrate inputs were reconstructed by using measured nitrate concentrations, dinitrogen gas excess and transit time distributions of the wells. Field data showed large differences in denitrification activity among wells, strongly associated with differences in transit time distribution. This suggests that knowing groundwater flow dynamics and consequent transit time distributions at the catchment-scale could be used to estimate the overall denitrification capacity of agricultural aquifers.

Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: A Challenge to Science and Society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plag, H.

2009-12-01

Society is challenged by the risk of an anticipated rise of coastal Local Sea Level (LSL) as a consequence of future global warming. Many low-lying and often subsiding and densely populated coastal areas are under risk of increased inundation, with potentially devastating consequences for the global economy, society, and environment. Faced with a trade-off between imposing the very high costs of coastal protection and adaptation upon today's national economies and leaving the costs of potential major disasters to future generations, governments and decision makers are in need of scientific support for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies for the coastal zone. Low-frequency to secular changes in LSL are the result of many interacting Earth system processes. The complexity of the Earth system makes it difficult to predict Global Sea Level (GSL) rise and, even more so, LSL changes over the next 100 to 200 years. Humans have re-engineered the planet and changed major features of the Earth surface and the atmosphere, thus ruling out extrapolation of past and current changes into the future as a reasonable approach. The risk of rapid changes in ocean circulation and ice sheet mass balance introduces the possibility of unexpected changes. Therefore, science is challenged with understanding and constraining the full range of plausible future LSL trajectories and with providing useful support for informed decisions. In the face of largely unpredictable future sea level changes, monitoring of the relevant processes and development of a forecasting service on realistic time scales is crucial as decision support. Forecasting and "early warning" for LSL rise would have to aim at decadal time scales, giving coastal managers sufficient time to react if the onset of rapid changes would require an immediate response. The social, environmental, and economic risks associated with potentially large and rapid LSL changes are enormous. Therefore, in the light of the current uncertainties and the unpredictable nature of some of the forcing processes for LSL changes, the focus of scientific decision support may have to shift from projections of LSL trajectories on century time scales to the development of models and monitoring systems for a forecasting service on decadal time scales. The requirements for such a LSL forecasting service and the current obstacles will be discussed.

Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Youngsteadt, Elsa; Dale, Adam G.; Terando, Adam; Dunn, Robert R.; Frank, Steven D.

2014-01-01

Cities experience elevated temperature, CO2, and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long-term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present-day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural-forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms.

How effective is albedo modification (solar radiation management geoengineering) in preventing sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Applegate, Patrick J.; Keller, Klaus

2015-08-01

Albedo modification (AM) is sometimes characterized as a potential means of avoiding climate threshold responses, including large-scale ice sheet mass loss. Previous work has investigated the effects of AM on total sea-level rise over the present century, as well as AM’s ability to reduce long-term (≫103 yr) contributions to sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). These studies have broken new ground, but neglect important feedbacks in the GIS system, or are silent on AM’s effectiveness over the short time scales that may be most relevant for decision-making (<103 yr). Here, we assess AM’s ability to reduce GIS sea-level contributions over decades to centuries, using a simplified ice sheet model. We drive this model using a business-as-usual base temperature forcing scenario, as well as scenarios that reflect AM-induced temperature stabilization or temperature drawdown. Our model results suggest that (i) AM produces substantial near-term reductions in the rate of GIS-driven sea-level rise. However, (ii) sea-level rise contributions from the GIS continue after AM begins. These continued sea level rise contributions persist for decades to centuries after temperature stabilization and temperature drawdown begin, unless AM begins in the next few decades. Moreover, (iii) any regrowth of the GIS is delayed by decades or centuries after temperature drawdown begins, and is slow compared to pre-AM rates of mass loss. Combined with recent work that suggests AM would not prevent mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, our results provide a nuanced picture of AM’s possible effects on future sea-level rise.

Multi-Decadal Oscillations of the Ocean Active Upper-Layer Heat Content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byshev, Vladimir I.; Neiman, Victor G.; Anisimov, Mikhail V.; Gusev, Anatoly V.; Serykh, Ilya V.; Sidorova, Alexandra N.; Figurkin, Alexander L.; Anisimov, Ivan M.

2017-07-01

Spatial patterns in multi-decadal variability in upper ocean heat content for the last 60 years are examined using a numerical model developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of Russia (INM Model) and sea water temperature-salinity data from the World Ocean Database (in: Levitus, NOAA Atlas NESDIS 66, U.S. Wash.: Gov. Printing Office, 2009). Both the model and the observational data show that the heat content of the Active Upper Layer (AUL) in particular regions of the Atlantic, Pacific and Southern oceans have experienced prominent simultaneous variations on multi-decadal (25-35 years) time scales. These variations are compared earlier revealed climatic alternations in the Northern Atlantic region during the last century (Byshev et al. in Doklady Earth Sci 438(2):887-892, 2011). We found that from the middle of 1970s to the end of 1990s the AUL heat content decreased in several oceanic regions, while the mean surface temperature increased on Northern Hemisphere continents according to IPCC (in: Stocker et al. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2013). This means that the climate-forcing effect of the ocean-atmosphere interaction in certain energy-active areas determines not only local climatic processes, but also have an influence on global-scale climate phenomena. Here we show that specific regional features of the AUL thermal structure are in a good agreement with climatic conditions on the adjacent continents. Further, the ocean AUL in the five distinctive regions identified in our study have resumed warming in the first decade of this century. By analogy inference from previous climate scenarios, this may signal the onset of more continental climate over mainlands.

A century of Amazon burning driven by Atlantic climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makou, M.; Thompson, L. G.; Davis, M. E.; Eglinton, T. I.

2011-12-01

Very little is known about annual burning trends in the Amazon Basin prior to remote sensing of fires beginning in the late 1970's. Fires reduce Amazon forest biomass and species richness, release pollutant aerosols, and impact the carbon cycle, compelling further investigation of fire-climate dynamics. We measured organic compounds derived from vegetation burning in ice core samples from the Quelccaya Ice Cap in Peru at better than annual resolution to reconstruct wet and dry season burning throughout the Twentieth Century. Variations in the abundance of methyl hexadecanoate, which is produced by thermal alteration of vascular plant alkanoic acids, were used as a proxy for past fire activity. Concentrations of this compound in Quelccaya ice varied strongly on seasonal, interannual, and decadal time scales over the last 100 years, with high-amplitude dry season variability and muted, decadal-scale changes in wet season fire activity. Decade-long periods of repeatedly enhanced burning occurred during the 1930's and 1960's when dry season precipitation was perpetually reduced, as evidenced by low stages of the Rio Negro. These decadal trends suggest that changes in dry season precipitation drive fire activity in the western Amazon and highlight the potential of Amazon forests to undergo repeated strong burning. Fires occurred during years when sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the north tropical Atlantic were elevated and the north-south tropical Atlantic SST gradient was enhanced; this SST pattern likely displaced the intertropical convergence zone northward, driving subsidence and drought in the western and southern Amazon basin. Thus, our novel ice core record suggests that Amazon forest fire activity during the Twentieth Century was driven primarily by Atlantic climate processes, and future forest health will depend heavily on the evolution of tropical climate.

Historical And Modern Deep-Sea Transmissometry Data In World Ocean Database - Its Status, Challenges, And Utilization.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishonov, A. V.; Richardson, M. J.; Gardner, W. D.; Boyer, T.

2016-12-01

The World Ocean Database (WOD) contains over 13 million profiles of major oceanographic variables (T, S, etc.) with new data added continually, and is available without restriction. A subset of more than 24000 profiles include data from deep-sea transmissometers (Tr), instruments that measure the attenuation of a beam of red light (c) over a fixed path length (typically 25cm). Full water column Tr data collected along with standard hydrographic data can be applied to a variety of important scientific questions, e.g., why and how does primary production biomass change in the euphotic zone on decadal time scales? can sources of natural bottom nepheloid layers of resuspended sediment be differentiated from `industrial' sources due from future deep-sea mining? what is the role of resuspended sediment in the biogeochemical cycles of trace elements in the deep sea? Tr measurements were made over the past four decades during 550 cruises throughout all the world's ocean basins. We present a synopsis of these optical data collected during international, global programs such as the WOCE, JGOFS, and CLIVAR. Some of the transects were repeated two-three times over 10-15 years, purposely to allow an assessment of the variability of hydrographic conditions on decadal time scales. The optical measurements (c due to water and particles) throughout the entire water column made over recent decades along with the hydrographic data allow us to understand how optical conditions might be affected by climate change. Tr data have also been collected in many regional programs, e.g. SAVE in the late 1980's, and AMT beginning in the mid-1990's and continuing to today. Tr data held in WOD has been acquired using different instruments by different research teams and this brings some challenges to data post-processing and comparison. The majority of data now in WOD has been post-processed by our team, but incomplete metadata and methodology documentation have added to the difficulty of mining the historical data. New data collected by ongoing programs such as CLIVAR and GEOTRACES are being post-processed and coming to WOD on a regular basis. We encourage others who are making hydrographic measurements to include Tr measurements and submit data to WOD along with complete metadata / methodology to maximize the use of these valuable measurements.

Scale-dependency of the global mean surface temperature trend and its implication for the recent hiatus of global warming.

PubMed

Lin, Yong; Franzke, Christian L E

2015-08-11

Studies of the global mean surface temperature trend are typically conducted at a single (usually annual or decadal) time scale. The used scale does not necessarily correspond to the intrinsic scales of the natural temperature variability. This scale mismatch complicates the separation of externally forced temperature trends from natural temperature fluctuations. The hiatus of global warming since 1999 has been claimed to show that human activities play only a minor role in global warming. Most likely this claim is wrong due to the inadequate consideration of the scale-dependency in the global surface temperature (GST) evolution. Here we show that the variability and trend of the global mean surface temperature anomalies (GSTA) from January 1850 to December 2013, which incorporate both land and sea surface data, is scale-dependent and that the recent hiatus of global warming is mainly related to natural long-term oscillations. These results provide a possible explanation of the recent hiatus of global warming and suggest that the hiatus is only temporary.

Prototype ultrasonic instrument for quantitative testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lynnworth, L. C.; Dubois, J. L.; Kranz, P. R.

1972-01-01

A prototype ultrasonic instrument has been designed and developed for quantitative testing. The complete delivered instrument consists of a pulser/receiver which plugs into a standard oscilloscope, an rf power amplifier, a standard decade oscillator, and a set of broadband transducers for typical use at 1, 2, 5 and 10 MHz. The system provides for its own calibration, and on the oscilloscope, presents a quantitative (digital) indication of time base and sensitivity scale factors and some measurement data.

Lack of Evidence for Onshore Sediment Transport from Deep Water at Decadal Time Scales: Fire Island, New York

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

the net volume change within the cell.  Qsource includes net longshore transport, net onshore transport, and contributions from bluff or dune erosion...in restoration of the downcoast beach at Westhampton Dunes (Daley et al., 2000; Terchunian and Merkert, 1994) and after the Westhampton groin...nourishment, backshore dune erosion added to the control volume, and overwash losses out of the control volume or losses due to equilibrium profile

The role of palaeoecological records in assessing ecosystem services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeffers, Elizabeth S.; Nogué, Sandra; Willis, Katherine J.

2015-03-01

Biological conservation and environmental management are increasingly focussing on the preservation and restoration of ecosystem services (i.e. the benefits that humans receive from the natural functioning of healthy ecosystems). Over the past decade there has been a rapid increase in the number of palaeoecological studies that have contributed to conservation of biodiversity and management of ecosystem processes; however, there are relatively few instances in which attempts have been made to estimate the continuity of ecosystem goods and services over time. How resistant is an ecosystem service to environmental perturbations? And, if damaged, how long it does it take an ecosystem service to recover? Both questions are highly relevant to conservation and management of landscapes that are important for ecosystem service provision and require an in-depth understanding of the way ecosystems function in space and time. An understanding of time is particularly relevant for those ecosystem services - be they supporting, provisioning, regulating or cultural services that involve processes that vary over a decadal (or longer) timeframe. Most trees, for example, have generation times >50 years. Understanding the response of forested ecosystems to environmental perturbations and therefore the continuity of the ecosystem services they provide for human well-being - be it for example, carbon draw-down (regulating service) or timber (provisioning service) - requires datasets that reflect the typical replacement rates in these systems and the lifecycle of processes that alter their trajectories of change. Therefore, data are required that span decadal to millennial time-scales. Very rarely, however, is this information available from neo-ecological datasets and in many ecosystem service assessments, this lack of a temporal record is acknowledged as a significant information gap. This review aims to address this knowledge gap by examining the type and nature of palaeoecological datasets that might be critical to assessing the persistence of ecosystem services across a variety of time scales. Specifically we examine the types of palaeoecological records that can inform on the dynamics of ecosystem processes and services over time - and their response to complex environmental changes. We focus on three key areas: a) exploring the suitability of palaeoecological records for examining variability in space and time of ecosystem processes; b) using palaeoecological data to determine the resilience and persistence of ecosystem services and goods over time in response to drivers of change; and c) how best to translate raw palaeoecological data into the relevant currencies required for ecosystem service assessments.

Digital Accessible Knowledge and well-inventoried sites for birds in Mexico: baseline sites for measuring faunistic change.

PubMed

Peterson, A Townsend; Navarro-Sigüenza, Adolfo G; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique

2016-01-01

Faunal change is a basic and fundamental element in ecology, biogeography, and conservation biology, yet vanishingly few detailed studies have documented such changes rigorously over decadal time scales. This study responds to that gap in knowledge, providing a detailed analysis of Digital Accessible Knowledge of the birds of Mexico, designed to marshal DAK to identify sites that were sampled and inventoried rigorously prior to the beginning of major global climate change (1980). We accumulated DAK records for Mexican birds from all relevant online biodiversity data portals. After extensive cleaning steps, we calculated completeness indices for each 0.05° pixel across the country; we also detected 'hotspots' of sampling, and calculated completeness indices for these broader areas as well. Sites were designated as well-sampled if they had completeness indices above 80% and >200 associated DAK records. We identified 100 individual pixels and 20 broader 'hotspots' of sampling that were demonstrably well-inventoried prior to 1980. These sites are catalogued and documented to promote and enable resurvey efforts that can document events of avifaunal change (and non-change) across the country on decadal time scales. Development of repeated surveys for many sites across Mexico, and particularly for sites for which historical surveys document their avifaunas prior to major climate change processes, would pay rich rewards in information about distributional dynamics of Mexican birds.

Recent variations in seasonality of temperature and precipitation in Canada, 1976-95

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whitfield, Paul H.; Bodtker, Karin; Cannon, Alex J.

2002-11-01

A previously reported analysis of rehabilitated monthly temperature and precipitation time series for several hundred stations across Canada showed generally spatially coherent patterns of variation between two decades (1976-85 and 1986-95). The present work expands that analysis to finer time scales and a greater number of stations. We demonstrate how the finer temporal resolution, at 5 day or 11 day intervals, increases the separation between clusters of recent variations in seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation. We also expand the analysis by increasing the number of stations from only rehabilitated monthly data sets to rehabilitated daily sets, then to approximately 1500 daily observation stations. This increases the spatial density of data and allows a finer spatial resolution of patterns between the two decades. We also examine the success of clustering partial records, i.e. sites where the data record is incomplete. The intent of this study was to be consistent with previous work and explore how greater temporal and spatial detail in the climate data affects the resolution of patterns of recent climate variations. The variations we report for temperature and precipitation are taking place at different temporal and spatial scales. Further, the spatial patterns are much broader than local climate regions and ecozones, indicating that the differences observed may be the result of variations in atmospheric circulation.

Hydro-Geological Hazard Temporal Evolution during the last seven decades in the Solofrana River Basin—Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Longobardi, Antonia; Diodato, Nazzareno; Mobilia, Mirka

2017-04-01

Extremes precipitation events are frequently associated to natural disasters falling within the broad spectrum of multiple damaging hydrological events (MDHEs), defined as the simultaneously triggering of different types of phenomena, such as landslides and floods. The power of the rainfall (duration, magnitude, intensity), named storm erosivity, is an important environmental indicator of multiple damaging hydrological phenomena. At the global scale, research interest is actually devoted to the investigation of non-stationary features of extreme events, and consequently of MDHEs, which appear to be increasing in frequency and severity. The Mediterranean basin appears among the most vulnerable regions with an expected increase in occurring damages of about 100% by the end of the century. A high concentration of high magnitude and short duration rainfall events are, in fact, responsible for the largest rainfall erosivity and erosivity density values within Europe. The aim of the reported work is to investigate the relationship between the temporal evolution of severe geomorphological events and combined precipitation indices as a tool to improve understanding the hydro-geological hazard at the catchment scale. The case study is the Solofrana river basin, Southern Italy, which has been seriously and consistently in time affected by natural disasters. Data for about 45 MDH events, spanning on a decadal scale 1951-2014, have been collected and analyzed for this purpose. A preliminary monthly scale analysis of event occurrences highlights a pronounced seasonal characterization of the phenomenon, as about 60% of the total number of reported events take place during the period from September to November. Following, a statistical analysis clearly indicates a significant increase in the frequency of occurrences of MDHEs during the last decades. Such an increase appears to be related to non-stationary features of an average catchment scale rainfall-runoff erosivity index, which combines maximum monthly, maximum daily, and a proxy of maximum hourly precipitation data. The main findings of the reported study relate to the fact that climate evolving tendencies do not appear significant in most of the cases and that MDHEs occurred within the studied catchment also for rainfall events of very moderate intensity and/or severity. The illustrated results seems to indicate that climate variability has not assumed the main role in the large number of damaging event, and that the relative increase hazardous hydro-geological events in the last decade, is instead most likely caused by incorrect urban planning policies.

Pesticides in groundwater of the United States: decadal-scale changes, 1993-2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Toccalino, Patricia L.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Lindsey, Bruce D.; Rupert, Michael G.

2014-01-01

The national occurrence of 83 pesticide compounds in groundwater of the United States and decadal-scale changes in concentrations for 35 compounds were assessed for the 20-year period from 1993–2011. Samples were collected from 1271 wells in 58 nationally distributed well networks. Networks consisted of shallow (mostly monitoring) wells in agricultural and urban land-use areas and deeper (mostly domestic and public supply) wells in major aquifers in mixed land-use areas. Wells were sampled once during 1993–2001 and once during 2002–2011. Pesticides were frequently detected (53% of all samples), but concentrations seldom exceeded human-health benchmarks (1.8% of all samples). The five most frequently detected pesticide compounds—atrazine, deethylatrazine, simazine, metolachlor, and prometon—each had statistically significant (p < 0.1) changes in concentrations between decades in one or more categories of well networks nationally aggregated by land use. For agricultural networks, concentrations of atrazine, metolachlor, and prometon decreased from the first decade to the second decade. For urban networks, deethylatrazine concentrations increased and prometon concentrations decreased. For major aquifers, concentrations of deethylatrazine and simazine increased. The directions of concentration changes for individual well networks generally were consistent with changes determined from nationally aggregated data. Altogether, 36 of the 58 individual well networks had statistically significant changes in concentrations of one or more pesticides between decades, with the majority of changes attributed to the five most frequently detected pesticide compounds. The magnitudes of median decadal-scale concentration changes were small—ranging from −0.09 to 0.03 µg/L—and were 35- to 230,000-fold less than human-health benchmarks.

Tracing sediment dispersal on nourished beaches: Two case studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thieler, E. Robert; Gayes, Paul T.; Schwab, William C.; Harris, M. Scott

1999-01-01

The event- to decade-scale patterns of sediment dispersal on two artificially nourished beaches have been mapped using a combination of geophysical surveys, closely-spaced vibracores, and repeated beach profiles. At both Wrightsville Beach, NC and Folly Island, SC the sediment used for beach nourishment is macroscopically distinct from native sediment and can be used to identify sediment transport pathways and infer mechanisms for across-shelf transport. The data from both sites demonstrate that significant quantities of nourishment sediment are being transported seaward onto the inner continental shelf. The time and space scales of this transport are of engineering interest for the planning, design and long-term maintenance of nourished beaches.

Effects of the 7-8-year cycle in daily mean air temperature as a cross-scale information transfer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jajcay, Nikola; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Paluš, Milan

2015-04-01

Using a novel nonlinear time-series analysis method, an information transfer from larger to smaller scales of the air temperature variability has been observed in daily mean surface air temperature (SAT) data from European stations as the influence of the phase of slow oscillatory phenomena with periods around 6-11 years on amplitudes of the variability characterized by smaller temporal scales from a few months to 4-5 years [1]. The strongest effect is exerted by an oscillatory mode with the period close to 8 years and its influence can be seen in 1-2 °C differences of the conditional SAT means taken conditionally on the phase of the 8-year cycle. The size of this effect, however, changes in space and time. The changes in time are studied using sliding window technique, showing that the effect evolves in time, and during the last decades the effect is stronger and significant. Sliding window technique was used along with seasonal division of the data, and it has been found that the cycle is most pronounced in the winter season. Different types of surrogate data are applied in order to establish statistical significance and distinguish the effect of the 7-8-yr cycle from climate variability on shorter time scales. [1] M. Palus, Phys. Rev. Lett. 112 078702 (2014) This study is supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic within the Program KONTAKT II, Project No. LH14001.

Long-term variability of T Tauri stars using WASP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rigon, Laura; Scholz, Alexander; Anderson, David; West, Richard

2017-03-01

We present a reference study of the long-term optical variability of young stars using data from the WASP project. Our primary sample is a group of well-studied classical T Tauri stars (CTTSs), mostly in Taurus-Auriga. WASP light curves cover time-scales of up to 7 yr and typically contain 10 000-30 000 data points. We quantify the variability as a function of time-scale using the time-dependent standard deviation 'pooled sigma'. We find that the overwhelming majority of CTTSs have a low-level variability with σ < 0.3 mag dominated by time-scales of a few weeks, consistent with rotational modulation. Thus, for most young stars, monitoring over a month is sufficient to constrain the total amount of variability over time-scales of up to a decade. The fraction of stars with a strong optical variability (σ > 0.3 mag) is 21 per cent in our sample and 21 per cent in an unbiased control sample. An even smaller fraction (13 per cent in our sample, 6 per cent in the control) show evidence for an increase in variability amplitude as a function of time-scale from weeks to months or years. The presence of long-term variability correlates with the spectral slope at 3-5 μm, which is an indicator of inner disc geometry, and with the U-B band slope, which is an accretion diagnostics. This shows that the long-term variations in CTTSs are predominantly driven by processes in the inner disc and in the accretion zone. Four of the stars with long-term variations show periods of 20-60 d, significantly longer than the rotation periods and stable over months to years. One possible explanation is cyclic changes in the interaction between the disc and the stellar magnetic field.

Three-decade neurological and neurocognitive follow-up of HIV-1-infected patients on best-available antiretroviral therapy in Finland.

PubMed

Heikinheimo, T; Poutiainen, E; Salonen, O; Elovaara, I; Ristola, M

2015-11-05

Is it possible to live without neurocognitive or neurological symptoms after being infected with HIV for a very long time? These study patients with decades-long HIV infection in Finland were observed in this follow-up study during three time periods: 1986-1990, in 1997 and in 2013. Patients from greater Helsinki area were selected from outpatient's unit of infectious diseases. The study included 80 HIV patients. Patients with heavy alcohol consumption, central nervous system disorder or psychiatric disease were excluded. The patients underwent neurological and neuropsychological examinations, MRI of the brain and laboratory tests, including blood CD4 cells and plasma HIV-1 RNA. Neuropsychological examination included several measures: subtests of Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale, Wechsler Memory Scale-Revised, list learning, Stroop and Trail-Making-B test. The Beck Depression Inventory and Fatigue Severity Scale were also carried out. The obtained data from the three time periods were compared with each other. Owing to high mortality among the original 80 patients, eventually, 17 participated in all three examinations performed between 1986 and 2013. The time from the HIV diagnosis was 27 (23-30) years. Blood CD4 cells at the diagnosis were 610 (29-870) cells/mm(3), and the nadir CD4 168 (4-408) cells/mm(3). The time on combined antiretroviral treatment was 13 (5-17) years. 9 patients suffered from fatigue, 5 had polyneuropathy and 3 had lacunar cerebral infarcts. There was a subtle increase of brain atrophy in 2 patients. Mild depressive symptoms were common. The neuropsychological follow-up showed typical age-related cognitive changes. No HIV-associated dementia features were detected. Polyneuropathy, fatigue and mild depression were common, but more severe neurological abnormalities were absent. These long-term surviving HIV-seropositive patients, while on best-available treatment, showed no evidence of HIV-associated neurocognitive disorder in neuropsychological and neuroradiological evaluations. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Collapse and recovery of forage fish populations prior to commercial exploitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClatchie, S.; Hendy, I. L.; Thompson, A. R.; Watson, W.

2017-02-01

We use a new, well-calibrated 500 year paleorecord off southern California to determine collapse frequency, cross correlation, persistence, and return times of exploited forage fish populations. The paleorecord shows that "collapse" (defined as <10% of the mean peak biomass) is a normal state repeatedly experienced by northern anchovy, Pacific hake, and Pacific sardine which were collapsed 29-40% of the time, prior to commercial fishing exploitation. Mean (± SD) persistence of "fishable biomass" (defined as one third mean peak biomass from the paleorecord) was 19 ± 18, 15 ± 17, and 12 ± 7 years for anchovy, hake, and sardine. Mean return times to the same biomass was 8 years for anchovy but 22 years for sardine and hake. Further, we find that sardine and anchovy are positively correlated over 400 years, consistent with coherent declines of both species off California. Persistence and return times combined with positive sardine-anchovy correlation indicate that on average 1-2 decades of fishable biomass will be followed by 1-2 decades of low forage. Forage populations are resilient on the 500 year time scale, but their collapse and recovery cycle (based on the paleorecord) are suited to alternating periods of high fishing mortality and periods of little or no fishing.

Updates on Pairing Issues with the US Antarctic Meteorite Collection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Righter, K.; Satterwhite, C.; Schutt, J.

2015-01-01

The US Antarctic meteorite program has re-covered >21,000 meteorites since 1976, with thousands of those recovered from several icefields over multiple seasons, some-times spanning over a decade [1]. Pairing is assigned as best as possible at the time of classification, based on information from the field team, macro-scale hand sample features in the lab, and petrography, but later focused studies can reveal details that suggest re-evaluation of pairing groups. As a result, pairing groups are revealed over time, and must be continuously updated. Here we examine a few groups with known issues and give an update on some of the larger or more significant pairing groups.

Spatiotemporal patterns of drought at various time scales in Shandong Province of Eastern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuo, Depeng; Cai, Siyang; Xu, Zongxue; Li, Fulin; Sun, Wenchao; Yang, Xiaojing; Kan, Guangyuan; Liu, Pin

2018-01-01

The temporal variations and spatial patterns of drought in Shandong Province of Eastern China were investigated by calculating the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-month time scales. Monthly precipitation and air temperature time series during the period 1960-2012 were collected at 23 meteorological stations uniformly distributed over the region. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to explore the temporal trends of precipitation, air temperature, and the SPEI drought index. S-mode principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to identify the spatial patterns of drought. The results showed that an insignificant decreasing trend in annual total precipitation was detected at most stations, a significant increase of annual average air temperature occurred at all the 23 stations, and a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI was mainly detected at the coastal stations for all the time scales. The frequency of occurrence of extreme and severe drought at different time scales generally increased with decades; higher frequency and larger affected area of extreme and severe droughts occurred as the time scale increased, especially for the northwest of Shandong Province and Jiaodong peninsular. The spatial pattern of drought for SPEI-1 contains three regions: eastern Jiaodong Peninsular and northwestern and southern Shandong. As the time scale increased to 3, 6, and 12 months, the order of the three regions was transformed into another as northwestern Shandong, eastern Jiaodong Peninsular, and southern Shandong. For SPEI-24, the location identified by REOF1 was slightly shifted from northwestern Shandong to western Shandong, and REOF2 and REOF3 identified another two weak patterns in the south edge and north edge of Jiaodong Peninsular, respectively. The potential causes of drought and the impact of drought on agriculture in the study area have also been discussed. The temporal variations and spatial patterns of drought obtained in this study provide valuable information for water resources planning and drought disaster prevention and mitigation in Eastern China.

Uncovering the Anthropogenic Sea Level Change using an Improved Sea Level Reconstruction for the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, P.; Hamlington, B.; Thompson, P. R.; Han, W.

2016-12-01

Despite having some of the world's most densely populated and vulnerable coastal regions, sea level (SL) variability in the Indian Ocean (IO) has received considerably less attention than the Pacific Ocean. Differentiating the internal variability from the long-term trend in global mean sea level (GMSL) at decadal time-scales is vital for planning and mitigation efforts in the IO region. Understanding the dynamics of internal and anthropogenic SL change is essential for understanding the dynamic pathways that link the IO basin to terrestrial climates world-wide. With a sparse pre-satellite observational record of the IO, the Indo-Pacific internal climate variability is difficult to represent accurately. However, an improved representation of pre-satellite SL variability can be achieved by using a multivariate reconstruction technique. By using cyclostationary empirical orthogonal functions (CSEOFs) that can capture time-varying spatial patterns, gaps in the historical record when observations are sparse are filled using spatial relationships from time periods when the observational network is dense. This reconstruction method combines SL data and sea surface temperature (SST) to create a SL reconstruction that spans a period from 1900 to present, long enough to study climate signals over interannual to decadal time scales. This study aims at estimating the component of SL rise that relates to anthropogenic forcing by identifying and removing the fraction related to internal variability. An improved understanding of how the internal climate variability can affect the IO SL trend and variability, will provide an insight into the future SL changes. It is also important to study links between SL and climate variability in the past to understand how SL will respond to similar climatic events in the future and if this response will be influenced by the changing climate.

Ventilation variability of Labrador Sea Water and its impact on oxygen and anthropogenic carbon: a review.

PubMed

Rhein, Monika; Steinfeldt, Reiner; Kieke, Dagmar; Stendardo, Ilaria; Yashayaev, Igor

2017-09-13

Ventilation of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) receives ample attention because of its potential relation to the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here, we provide an overview of the changes of LSW from observations in the Labrador Sea and from the southern boundary of the subpolar gyre at 47° N. A strong winter-time atmospheric cooling over the Labrador Sea led to intense and deep convection, producing a thick and dense LSW layer as, for instance, in the early to mid-1990s. The weaker convection in the following years mostly ventilated less dense LSW vintages and also reduced the supply of oxygen. As a further consequence, the rate of uptake of anthropogenic carbon by LSW decreased between the two time periods 1996-1999 and 2007-2010 in the western subpolar North Atlantic. In the eastern basins, the rate of increase in anthropogenic carbon became greater due to the delayed advection of LSW that was ventilated in previous years. Starting in winter 2013/2014 and prevailing at least into winter 2015/2016, production of denser and more voluminous LSW resumed. Increasing oxygen signals have already been found in the western boundary current at 47° N. On decadal and shorter time scales, anomalous cold atmospheric conditions over the Labrador Sea lead to an intensification of convection. On multi-decadal time scales, the 'cold blob' in the subpolar North Atlantic projected by climate models in the next 100 years is linked to a weaker AMOC and weaker convection (and thus deoxygenation) in the Labrador Sea.This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Ventilation variability of Labrador Sea Water and its impact on oxygen and anthropogenic carbon: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhein, Monika; Steinfeldt, Reiner; Kieke, Dagmar; Stendardo, Ilaria; Yashayaev, Igor

2017-08-01

Ventilation of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) receives ample attention because of its potential relation to the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here, we provide an overview of the changes of LSW from observations in the Labrador Sea and from the southern boundary of the subpolar gyre at 47° N. A strong winter-time atmospheric cooling over the Labrador Sea led to intense and deep convection, producing a thick and dense LSW layer as, for instance, in the early to mid-1990s. The weaker convection in the following years mostly ventilated less dense LSW vintages and also reduced the supply of oxygen. As a further consequence, the rate of uptake of anthropogenic carbon by LSW decreased between the two time periods 1996-1999 and 2007-2010 in the western subpolar North Atlantic. In the eastern basins, the rate of increase in anthropogenic carbon became greater due to the delayed advection of LSW that was ventilated in previous years. Starting in winter 2013/2014 and prevailing at least into winter 2015/2016, production of denser and more voluminous LSW resumed. Increasing oxygen signals have already been found in the western boundary current at 47° N. On decadal and shorter time scales, anomalous cold atmospheric conditions over the Labrador Sea lead to an intensification of convection. On multi-decadal time scales, the `cold blob' in the subpolar North Atlantic projected by climate models in the next 100 years is linked to a weaker AMOC and weaker convection (and thus deoxygenation) in the Labrador Sea. This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'.

Do quantitative decadal forecasts from GCMs provide decision relevant skill?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suckling, E. B.; Smith, L. A.

2012-04-01

It is widely held that only physics-based simulation models can capture the dynamics required to provide decision-relevant probabilistic climate predictions. This fact in itself provides no evidence that predictions from today's GCMs are fit for purpose. Empirical (data-based) models are employed to make probability forecasts on decadal timescales, where it is argued that these 'physics free' forecasts provide a quantitative 'zero skill' target for the evaluation of forecasts based on more complicated models. It is demonstrated that these zero skill models are competitive with GCMs on decadal scales for probability forecasts evaluated over the last 50 years. Complications of statistical interpretation due to the 'hindcast' nature of this experiment, and the likely relevance of arguments that the lack of hindcast skill is irrelevant as the signal will soon 'come out of the noise' are discussed. A lack of decision relevant quantiative skill does not bring the science-based insights of anthropogenic warming into doubt, but it does call for a clear quantification of limits, as a function of lead time, for spatial and temporal scales on which decisions based on such model output are expected to prove maladaptive. Failing to do so may risk the credibility of science in support of policy in the long term. The performance amongst a collection of simulation models is evaluated, having transformed ensembles of point forecasts into probability distributions through the kernel dressing procedure [1], according to a selection of proper skill scores [2] and contrasted with purely data-based empirical models. Data-based models are unlikely to yield realistic forecasts for future climate change if the Earth system moves away from the conditions observed in the past, upon which the models are constructed; in this sense the empirical model defines zero skill. When should a decision relevant simulation model be expected to significantly outperform such empirical models? Probability forecasts up to ten years ahead (decadal forecasts) are considered, both on global and regional spatial scales for surface air temperature. Such decadal forecasts are not only important in terms of providing information on the impacts of near-term climate change, but also from the perspective of climate model validation, as hindcast experiments and a sufficient database of historical observations allow standard forecast verification methods to be used. Simulation models from the ENSEMBLES hindcast experiment [3] are evaluated and contrasted with static forecasts of the observed climatology, persistence forecasts and against simple statistical models, called dynamic climatology (DC). It is argued that DC is a more apropriate benchmark in the case of a non-stationary climate. It is found that the ENSEMBLES models do not demonstrate a significant increase in skill relative to the empirical models even at global scales over any lead time up to a decade ahead. It is suggested that the contsruction and co-evaluation with the data-based models become a regular component of the reporting of large simulation model forecasts. The methodology presented may easily be adapted to other forecasting experiments and is expected to influence the design of future experiments. The inclusion of comparisons with dynamic climatology and other data-based approaches provide important information to both scientists and decision makers on which aspects of state-of-the-art simulation forecasts are likely to be fit for purpose. [1] J. Bröcker and L. A. Smith. From ensemble forecasts to predictive distributions, Tellus A, 60(4), 663-678 (2007). [2] J. Bröcker and L. A. Smith. Scoring probabilistic forecasts: The importance of being proper, Weather and Forecasting, 22, 382-388 (2006). [3] F. J. Doblas-Reyes, A. Weisheimer, T. N. Palmer, J. M. Murphy and D. Smith. Forecast quality asessment of the ENSEMBLES seasonal-to-decadal stream 2 hindcasts, ECMWF Technical Memorandum, 621 (2010).

Global Night-Time Lights for Observing Human Activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hipskind, Stephen R.; Elvidge, Chris; Gurney, K.; Imhoff, Mark; Bounoua, Lahouari; Sheffner, Edwin; Nemani, Ramakrishna R.; Pettit, Donald R.; Fischer, Marc

2011-01-01

We present a concept for a small satellite mission to make systematic, global observations of night-time lights with spatial resolution suitable for discerning the extent, type and density of human settlements. The observations will also allow better understanding of fine scale fossil fuel CO2 emission distribution. The NASA Earth Science Decadal Survey recommends more focus on direct observations of human influence on the Earth system. The most dramatic and compelling observations of human presence on the Earth are the night light observations taken by the Defence Meteorological System Program (DMSP) Operational Linescan System (OLS). Beyond delineating the footprint of human presence, night light data, when assembled and evaluated with complementary data sets, can determine the fine scale spatial distribution of global fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Understanding fossil fuel carbon emissions is critical to understanding the entire carbon cycle, and especially the carbon exchange between terrestrial and oceanic systems.

Global patterns of phytoplankton dynamics in coastal ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paerl, H.; Yin, Kedong; Cloern, J.

2011-01-01

Scientific Committee on Ocean Research Working Group 137 Meeting; Hangzhou, China, 17-21 October 2010; Phytoplankton biomass and community structure have undergone dramatic changes in coastal ecosystems over the past several decades in response to climate variability and human disturbance. These changes have short- and long-term impacts on global carbon and nutrient cycling, food web structure and productivity, and coastal ecosystem services. There is a need to identify the underlying processes and measure the rates at which they alter coastal ecosystems on a global scale. Hence, the Scientific Committee on Ocean Research (SCOR) formed Working Group 137 (WG 137), "Global Patterns of Phytoplankton Dynamics in Coastal Ecosystems: A Comparative Analysis of Time Series Observations" (http://wg137.net/). This group evolved from a 2007 AGU-sponsored Chapman Conference entitled "Long Time-Series Observations in Coastal Ecosystems: Comparative Analyses of Phytoplankton Dynamics on Regional to Global Scales.".

Understanding climate: A strategy for climate modeling and predictability research, 1985-1995

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thiele, O. (Editor); Schiffer, R. A. (Editor)

1985-01-01

The emphasis of the NASA strategy for climate modeling and predictability research is on the utilization of space technology to understand the processes which control the Earth's climate system and it's sensitivity to natural and man-induced changes and to assess the possibilities for climate prediction on time scales of from about two weeks to several decades. Because the climate is a complex multi-phenomena system, which interacts on a wide range of space and time scales, the diversity of scientific problems addressed requires a hierarchy of models along with the application of modern empirical and statistical techniques which exploit the extensive current and potential future global data sets afforded by space observations. Observing system simulation experiments, exploiting these models and data, will also provide the foundation for the future climate space observing system, e.g., Earth observing system (EOS), 1985; Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) North, et al. NASA, 1984.

Unmixing the young fossil record using radiocarbon-calibrated amino-acid racemization (Gulf of Trieste, northern Adriatic Sea)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomašových, Adam; Gallmetzer, Ivo; Haselmair, Alex; Kaufman, Darrell S.; Vidović, Jelena; Zuschin, Martin

2017-04-01

Marine coastal habitats globally have been affected by eutrophication, hypoxia, habitat alteration, overfishing, and resource exploitation over recent decades. However, reconstruction of past natural ecosystem states is compromised by short-term archives and biotic surveys limited to the past decades and/or by low stratigraphic resolution of fossil assemblages in sedimentary cores due to slow sedimentation and bioturbation. In the northern Adriatic Sea, which was affected by eutrophication, algal blooms and mucilage blooms, and hypoxia during the second half of the 20th century, the composition of natural baseline states of benthic ecosystems and their responses to natural and anthropogenic disturbances over longer, centennial scales are poorly known. In this study, we evaluate the timing and forcing of past hypoxia events in the northern Adriatic Sea (Gulf of Trieste) based on the production history of the opportunistic, hypoxia-tolerant bivalve Corbula gibba, using 210Pb data, radiocarbon dating, amino acid racemization, and distribution of foraminifers in 1.5-m-thick sediment cores that capture the past 500 yr. Corbula gibba tolerates eutrophied and polluted conditions and survives seasonal hypoxic and mass mortality events affecting most of the benthic macrofauna in the northern Adriatic Sea. In the aftermath of such events, it can achieve density of thousands of individuals/1 m2 and can contribute with more than 80% of individuals to the bivalve assemblage. Unmixing the stratigraphic record of cores on the basis of 311 shells of C. gibba, we show that production of this species underwent major decadal-scale fluctuations since the 18th century, with outbreaks corresponding to density of more than 1000 individuals per square meter. A positive correlation between abundances of hypoxia-tolerant foraminifers and C. gibba, the temporal coincidence between the peak in abundance at 1980 and several hypoxic crises in the Gulf of Trieste in 1974, 1980, and 1983, and the temporal coincidence between the decline in C. gibba abundance and low frequency of hypoxia in the past two decades, suggest that outbreaks of C. gibba do correspond to past hypoxia events. We suggest that the outbreaks of C. gibba represent long-term phenomena in the northern Adriatic ecosystem rather than novel states characteristic of the 20th century eutrophication. These outbreaks correlate significantly positively with maxima in sea-surface temperature, indicating that the hypoxia events were connected with water-column stratification rather than with eutrophication events. The reconstructed fluctuations in production do not correlate with abundances of C. gibba in the raw stratigraphic record due to centennial-scale time averaging of bivalve assemblages.

A Zonal Mode in the Indian Ocean over the Past Millennium? Isotopic Evidence from Continental Climate Archives and Model Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konecky, B.; Russell, J. M.; Vuille, M.; Rodysill, J. R.; Cohen, L. R.; Chuman, A. F.; Huang, Y.

2011-12-01

We present new evidence for multi-decadal to millennial scale hydro-climatic change in the continental Indian Ocean region over the past two millennia. We assess regional hydrological variability using new records of the δD of terrestrial plant waxes from the sediments of several lakes in tropical East Africa and Indonesia. We compare these new data to previous δ18O and δD records from the region and interpret these results in light of an isotope-enabled climate model simulation of the past 130 years. Long-term trends in our data support a southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)'s mean position over the past millennium, bringing progressively wetter conditions and D-depleted waxes to our southernmost site (~8°S) starting around 950 C.E. while maintaining overall wet conditions at our northernmost site (~0°N) until the end of the 19th century. Superimposed on this long-term trend are a series of pronounced, multi-decadal to centennial scale isotopic excursions that are of the same timing but in opposite directions on the two sides of the Indian Ocean. These zonally asymmetric isotopic fluctuations become progressively more pronounced beginning around 1400 C.E., with the onset of Little Ice Age cool conditions recorded in sea surface temperature reconstructions from the Northern Hemisphere and the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP). Previous work in the IPWP region suggests cooler SST, reduced boreal summer Asian monsoon intensity, and less ENSO-like activity during the Little Ice Age [Oppo et al., 2009, Nature 460:1113, and references therein], although recent paleolimnological reconstructions from Java indicate punctuated droughts during this time [Rodysill et al., 2010, Eos Trans. AGU, 91(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract PP51B-04]. Our records suggest that multi-decadal to centennial precipitation variability was in fact enhanced during this time period in parts of equatorial East Africa and western Indonesia. The direction of isotopic excursions in our records resembles the variations associated with the negative mode of the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM) observed in modern seasonal data. To investigate the potential for an IOZM-like mode to explain multi-decadal phenomena over the past millennium, we compare the variations in our records and in other previously published δ18O and δD records from the region to a model simulation of the past 130 years by the Stable Water Isotope INtercomparison Group (SWING). We find significant multi-decadal isotopic variability associated with the IOZM in the SWING experiment. We analyze the isotopic signature associated with both the IOZM and ENSO and use these findings to help interpret the multi-decadal variability evident in continental paleoclimate archives over the past millennium in the Indian Ocean region.

Accretion of a New England (U.S.A.) salt march in response to inlet migration, storms, and sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roman, C.T.; Peck, J.A.; Allen, J.R.; King, J.W.; Appleby, P.G.

1997-01-01

Sediment accumulation rates were determined at several sites throughout Nauset Marsh (Massachusetts, U.S.A.), a back-barrier lagoonal system, using feldspar marker horizons to evaluate short-term rates (1 to 2 year scales) and radiometric techniques to estimate rates over longer time scales (137Cs, 210Pb, 14C). The barrier spit fronting the Spartina-dominated study site has a complex geomorphic history of inlet migration and over-wash events. This study evaluates sediment accumulation rates in relation to inlet migration, storm events, and sea-level rise. The marker horizon technique displayed strong temporal and spatial variability in response to storm events and proximity to the inlet. Sediment accumulation rates of up to 24 mm year -1 were recorded in the immediate vicinity of the inlet during a period that included several major coastal storms, while feldspar sites remote from the inlet had substantially lower rates (trace accumulation to 2.2 mm year -1). During storm-free periods, accumulation rates did not exceed 6.7 mm year -1, but remained quite variable among sites. Based on 137Cs (3.8 to 4.5 mm year -1) and 210Pb (2.6 to 4.2 mm year -1) radiometric techniques, integrating sediment accumulation over decadal time scales, the marsh appeared to be keeping pace with the relative rate of sealevel rise from 1921 to 1993 of 2.4 mm year -1. At one site, the 210Pb-based sedimentation rate and rate of relative sea-level rise were nearly similar and peat rhizome analysis revealed that Distichlis spicata recently replaced this once S.patens site, suggesting that this portion of Nauset Marsh may be getting wetter, thus representing an initial response to wetland submergence. Horizon markers are useful in evaluating the role of short-term events, such as storms or inlet migration, influencing marsh sedimentation processes. However, sampling methods that integrate marsh sedimentation over decadal time scales are preferable when evaluating a systems response to sea-level rise.

Accretion of a New England (U.S.A.) salt marsh in response to inlet migration, storms, and sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roman, C.T.; Peck, J.A.; Allen, J.R.; King, J.W.; Appleby, P.G.

1997-01-01

Sediment accumulation rates were determined at several sites throughout Nauset Marsh (Massachusetts, U.S.A.), a back-barrier lagoonal system, using feldspar marker horizons to evaluate short-term rates (1 to 2 year scales) and radiometric techniques to estimate rates over longer time scales (137Cs, 210Pb, 14C). The barrier spit fronting the Spartima-dominated study site has a complex geomorphic history of inlet migration and overwash events. This study evaluates sediment accumulation rates in relation to inlet migration, storm events and sea-level rise. The marker horizon technique displayed strong temporal and spatial variability in response to storm events and proximity to the inlet. Sediment accumulation rates of up to 24 mm year-1 were recorded in the immediate vicinity of the inlet during a period that included several major coastal storms, while feldspar sites remote from the inlet had substantially lower rates (trace accumulation to 2.2 mm year-1). During storm-free periods, accumulation rates did not exceed 6.7 mm year-1, but remained quite variable among sites. Based on 137Cs (3.8 to 4.5 mm year-1) and 210Pb (2.6 to 4.2 mm year-1) radiometric techniques, integrating sediment accumulation over decadal time scales, the marsh appeared to be keeping pace with the relative rate of sea-level rise from 1921 to 1993 of 2.4 mm year-1. At one site, the 210Pb-based sedimentation rate and rate of relative sea-level rise were nearly similar and peat rhizome analysis revealed that Distichlis spicata recently replaced this once S. patens site, suggesting that this portion of Nauset Marsh may be getting wetter, thus representing an initial response to wetland submergence. Horizon markers are useful in evaluating the role of short-term events, such as storms or inlet migration, influencing marsh sedimentation processes. However, sampling methods that integrate marsh sedimentation over decadal time scales are preferable when evaluating a systems response to sea-level rise.

Coral Microatolls and Their Role as Fixed Biological Indicators of Holocene Sea-Level Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodroffe, C. D.; Smithers, S. G.; McGregor, H. V.

2008-12-01

Corals microatolls are individual colonies of massive coral that have grown up to a level at which further upward growth is constrained by exposure at low tide, and which then continue to grow outwards, resulting in a flat-topped discoid morphology. Typically, microatolls comprise a single colony of massive Porites up to several metres in diameter. Modern microatolls are living on their outer margin but are predominantly dead on their upper surface. Microatolls are fixed biological sea-level indicators of the former upper limits to coral growth providing information on sea level at several temporal scales. Fossil microatolls have been used extensively to reconstruct broad patterns of Holocene sea-level trends in the Indo-Pacific reef province. Where they are preserved at a height above that of their living counterparts in the eastern Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia, northern Australia, and across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, they indicate that reef flats have experienced relatively higher sea levels in the mid- and late Holocene. Progressively lower corals have been interpreted to record the fall in sea level to its present position over millennial time scales. Large specimens of microatolls can reach several metres in diameter and contain a growth record of tens to hundreds of years; the upper surfaces of these can be used to track the pattern of sea-level variation over several decades. In this paper we explore the potential for using concentric annuli and subtle undulations preserved on microatoll upper surfaces to interpret sea-level changes over decadal to millennial time scales. We demonstrate that in the central Pacific modern microatolls preserve a surface morphology that reflects oscillations of sea level associated with El Niño. We evaluate the extent to which similar fluctuations may be recorded in the morphology of Indian Ocean microatolls, and the circumstances which promote the preservation of these morphological records of sea-level change over longer time scales. We discuss the potential to reconstruct extended records of sea-level change by using geochemical signatures preserved within microatoll skeletons to improve cross-correlations between colonies, and assess the precision with which sea level can be inferred.

Influence of prolonged Anomalies in North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature on Winter Windstorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höschel, Ines; Schuster, Mareike; Grieger, Jens; Ulbrich, Uwe

2016-04-01

The focus of this presentation is on decadal scale variations in the frequency and in the intensity of mid-latitude winter windstorms. Projections for the end of the next century are often beyond the time horizon of business, thus there is an increasing interest on decadal prediction, especially for infrastructural planning and in the insurance industry. One source of decadal predictability is the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), a change in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic, strongly linked to the meridional overturning circulation. Correlation patterns between annual AMV-indices and annual mean of geopotential height at 500 hPa in reanalysis data show an anti-correlation in the North Atlantic. That is, during AMV warm phases the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is more negative. Consequently, AMV should influence the characteristics of winter windstorms at multi-year scales. For the presented investigations a 10-member ensemble of 38-year-long idealized simulations with the atmosphere model ECHAM6 with lower boundary conditions, representing warm and cool phases of the AMV, is used. In the idealized simulations, the anti-correlation between AMV and NAO is well represented. For the identification of winter windstorms an objective wind tracking algorithm based on the exceedance of the local 98th percentile of 10m wind speed is applied. Storms under AMV-warm and AMV-cool conditions will be compared in terms of storm track density and probability distribution of storm characteristics.

A model ensemble for projecting multi‐decadal coastal cliff retreat during the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Limber, Patrick; Barnard, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Erikson, Li

2018-01-01

Sea cliff retreat rates are expected to accelerate with rising sea levels during the 21st century. Here we develop an approach for a multi‐model ensemble that efficiently projects time‐averaged sea cliff retreat over multi‐decadal time scales and large (>50 km) spatial scales. The ensemble consists of five simple 1‐D models adapted from the literature that relate sea cliff retreat to wave impacts, sea level rise (SLR), historical cliff behavior, and cross‐shore profile geometry. Ensemble predictions are based on Monte Carlo simulations of each individual model, which account for the uncertainty of model parameters. The consensus of the individual models also weights uncertainty, such that uncertainty is greater when predictions from different models do not agree. A calibrated, but unvalidated, ensemble was applied to the 475 km‐long coastline of Southern California (USA), with 4 SLR scenarios of 0.5, 0.93, 1.5, and 2 m by 2100. Results suggest that future retreat rates could increase relative to mean historical rates by more than two‐fold for the higher SLR scenarios, causing an average total land loss of 19 – 41 m by 2100. However, model uncertainty ranges from +/‐ 5 – 15 m, reflecting the inherent difficulties of projecting cliff retreat over multiple decades. To enhance ensemble performance, future work could include weighting each model by its skill in matching observations in different morphological settings

Sequence analysis by iterated maps, a review.

PubMed

Almeida, Jonas S

2014-05-01

Among alignment-free methods, Iterated Maps (IMs) are on a particular extreme: they are also scale free (order free). The use of IMs for sequence analysis is also distinct from other alignment-free methodologies in being rooted in statistical mechanics instead of computational linguistics. Both of these roots go back over two decades to the use of fractal geometry in the characterization of phase-space representations. The time series analysis origin of the field is betrayed by the title of the manuscript that started this alignment-free subdomain in 1990, 'Chaos Game Representation'. The clash between the analysis of sequences as continuous series and the better established use of Markovian approaches to discrete series was almost immediate, with a defining critique published in same journal 2 years later. The rest of that decade would go by before the scale-free nature of the IM space was uncovered. The ensuing decade saw this scalability generalized for non-genomic alphabets as well as an interest in its use for graphic representation of biological sequences. Finally, in the past couple of years, in step with the emergence of BigData and MapReduce as a new computational paradigm, there is a surprising third act in the IM story. Multiple reports have described gains in computational efficiency of multiple orders of magnitude over more conventional sequence analysis methodologies. The stage appears to be now set for a recasting of IMs with a central role in processing nextgen sequencing results.

Hazard from far-field tsunami at Hilo: Earthquakes from the Ring of Fire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arcas, D.; Weiss, R.; Titov, V.

2007-12-01

Historical data and modeling are used to study tsunami hazard at Hilo, Hawaii. Hilo has one of the best historical tsunami record in the US. Considering the tsunami observations from the early eighteen hundreds until today reveals that the number of observed events per decade depends on the awareness of tsunami events. The awareness appears to be a function of the observation techniques such as seismometers and communication devices, as well as direct measurements. Three time periods can be identified, in which the number of observed events increases from one event per decade in the first period to 7.7 in the second, to 9.4 events per decade in the third one. A total of 89 events from far-field sources have been encountered. In contrast only 11 events have been observed with sources in the near field. To remove this historical observation bias from the hazard estimate, we have complimented the historical analysis with a modeling study. We have carried out modeling of 1476 individual earthquakes along the subduction zones of the Pacific Ocean in four different magnitude levels (7.5, 8.2, 8.7 and 9.3). The maximum run up and maximum peak at the tide gauge is plotted for the different magnitude levels to reveal sensitive and source areas of tsunami waves for Hilo and a linear scaling of both parameters for small, but non-linear scaling for larger earthquakes

Untangling the causes a decadal-scale drought: a case study in southeast Australia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Sophie; Gallant, Ailie

2017-04-01

Prolonged droughts on the order of multiple years to a decade have recently afflicted many parts of highly populated regions around the globe, for example, the southwest United States and southeast Australia. However, the causes of these droughts remain unclear. A significant contribution from natural decadal-scale climate variability is likely, but there is also conflicting evidence of any contribution from anthropogenic climate change. This work aims to untangle the causes of a 13-year drought in southeast Australia spanning 1997-2009. A suite of historical and control simulations from fully coupled GCMs contained in the CMIP5 archive are employed, and the potential contributions of random climate variability, SST forcing and anthropogenic forcing to the drought are examined. It is likely that random, decadal-scale variability played a significant role in producing the prolonged rainfall deficits across southeast Australia. These were reinforced by several years with El Niño-like conditions, which commonly induce drought in the region, and a lack of La Niña conditions, which are more likely to bring rain. Evidence of contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the drought is limited

Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015.

PubMed

Cheng, Lijing; Trenberth, Kevin E; Fasullo, John; Boyer, Tim; Abraham, John; Zhu, Jiang

2017-03-01

Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) drives the ongoing global warming and can best be assessed across the historical record (that is, since 1960) from ocean heat content (OHC) changes. An accurate assessment of OHC is a challenge, mainly because of insufficient and irregular data coverage. We provide updated OHC estimates with the goal of minimizing associated sampling error. We performed a subsample test, in which subsets of data during the data-rich Argo era are colocated with locations of earlier ocean observations, to quantify this error. Our results provide a new OHC estimate with an unbiased mean sampling error and with variability on decadal and multidecadal time scales (signal) that can be reliably distinguished from sampling error (noise) with signal-to-noise ratios higher than 3. The inferred integrated EEI is greater than that reported in previous assessments and is consistent with a reconstruction of the radiative imbalance at the top of atmosphere starting in 1985. We found that changes in OHC are relatively small before about 1980; since then, OHC has increased fairly steadily and, since 1990, has increasingly involved deeper layers of the ocean. In addition, OHC changes in six major oceans are reliable on decadal time scales. All ocean basins examined have experienced significant warming since 1998, with the greatest warming in the southern oceans, the tropical/subtropical Pacific Ocean, and the tropical/subtropical Atlantic Ocean. This new look at OHC and EEI changes over time provides greater confidence than previously possible, and the data sets produced are a valuable resource for further study.

CALICE: Calibrating Plant Biodiversity in Glacier Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Festi, Daniela; Cristofori, Antonella; Vernesi, Cristiano; Zerbe, Stefan; Wellstein, Camilla; Maggi, Valter; Oeggl, Klaus

2017-04-01

The objective of the project is to reconstruct plant biodiversity and its trend archived in Alpine glacier ice by pollen and eDNA (environmental DNA) during the last five decades by analyzing a 40 m ice core. For our study we chose the Adamello glacier (Trentino - Südtirol, Lombardia) because of i) the good preservation conditions for pollen and eDNA in ice, ii) the thickness of the ice cap (270m) and iii) the expected high time resolution. The biodiversity estimates gained by pollen analysis and eDNA will be validated by historical biodiversity assessments mainly based on vegetation maps, aerial photos and vegetation surveys in the catchment area of the Adamello glacier for the last five decades. This historical reconstruction of biodiversity trends will be performed on a micro-, meso- and macro-scale (5, 20-50 and 50-100 Km radius, respectively). The results will serve as a calibration data set on biodiversity for future studies, such as the second step of the coring by the POLLiCE research consortium (pollice.fmach.it). In fact, arrangements are currently been made to drill the complete ice cap and retrieve a 270 m thick core which has the potential to cover a time span of minimum 400 years up to several millennia. This second stage will extend the time scale and enable the evaluation of dissimilarity/similarity of modern biodiversity in relation to Late Holocene trends. Finally, we believe this case study has the potential to be applied in other glaciated areas to evaluate biodiversity for large regions (e.g. central Asian mountain ranges, Tibet and Tian Shan or the Andes).

Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015

PubMed Central

Cheng, Lijing; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John; Boyer, Tim; Abraham, John; Zhu, Jiang

2017-01-01

Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) drives the ongoing global warming and can best be assessed across the historical record (that is, since 1960) from ocean heat content (OHC) changes. An accurate assessment of OHC is a challenge, mainly because of insufficient and irregular data coverage. We provide updated OHC estimates with the goal of minimizing associated sampling error. We performed a subsample test, in which subsets of data during the data-rich Argo era are colocated with locations of earlier ocean observations, to quantify this error. Our results provide a new OHC estimate with an unbiased mean sampling error and with variability on decadal and multidecadal time scales (signal) that can be reliably distinguished from sampling error (noise) with signal-to-noise ratios higher than 3. The inferred integrated EEI is greater than that reported in previous assessments and is consistent with a reconstruction of the radiative imbalance at the top of atmosphere starting in 1985. We found that changes in OHC are relatively small before about 1980; since then, OHC has increased fairly steadily and, since 1990, has increasingly involved deeper layers of the ocean. In addition, OHC changes in six major oceans are reliable on decadal time scales. All ocean basins examined have experienced significant warming since 1998, with the greatest warming in the southern oceans, the tropical/subtropical Pacific Ocean, and the tropical/subtropical Atlantic Ocean. This new look at OHC and EEI changes over time provides greater confidence than previously possible, and the data sets produced are a valuable resource for further study. PMID:28345033

Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth

DOE PAGES

Mitchell, Logan E.; Lin, John C.; Bowling, David R.; ...

2018-03-05

Cities are concentrated areas of CO 2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO 2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine “excess” CO 2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO 2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find longterm trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO 2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends atmore » a residentialindustrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO 2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of populationwithin the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO 2, implying a nonlinear relationshipwith CO 2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO 2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.« less

Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, Logan E.; Lin, John C.; Bowling, David R.; Pataki, Diane E.; Strong, Courtenay; Schauer, Andrew J.; Bares, Ryan; Bush, Susan E.; Stephens, Britton B.; Mendoza, Daniel; Mallia, Derek; Holland, Lacey; Gurney, Kevin R.; Ehleringer, James R.

2018-03-01

Cities are concentrated areas of CO2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine “excess” CO2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find long-term trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends at a residential-industrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of population within the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO2, implying a nonlinear relationship with CO2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.

Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mitchell, Logan E.; Lin, John C.; Bowling, David R.

Cities are concentrated areas of CO 2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO 2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine “excess” CO 2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO 2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find longterm trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO 2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends atmore » a residentialindustrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO 2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of populationwithin the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO 2, implying a nonlinear relationshipwith CO 2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO 2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.« less

Increasing Influence of Societal Response Variables in Coastal Evolution Projections (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gayes, P. T.; McCoy, C. A.; Pietrafesa, L. J.

2010-12-01

Recent efforts to project changes in coastal erosion and vulnerability of the state of South Carolina’s (SC’s) oceanfront for different scenarios of future sea level have reinforced the significance of the influence of societal modifications and response to past and anticipated coastal change in these systems. For large reaches of the SC coast human interactions have been a dominant signal driving coastal change across annual to decadal scales. Over the last 20 years, SC’s shoreline has been advanced seawards in many areas due to a combination of sustained societal commitment to beach nourishment and to a lull in atmospheric storms; reversing the long-term erosional trend of shoreline change. Adjacent areas not yet threatened or where coastal defense is unsupported economically have continued to migrate landwards. Locally, efforts focused on stabilizing the subaerial beach have not moderated long-term shoreward migration of the shoreface changing the overall morphology of the coastal boundary waves and currents are operating against. These societal effects, coupled with realistic, substative assessments of future atmospheric storm activity and sea level variability, both over scales of seasons to multi-decades, require consideration to realistically project future coastal behavior across time and spatial scales for planning and resource management. As with future climate and sea level variability effects on the shoreline, the scale and intensity of societal response is not static or precisely projected spatially and temporally into the future. With continued expansion of coastal development and erosion into previously lightly developed and defended coastal areas, societal influences should be expected to increase. Increasing cost of larger scale defenses will likely drive pressure for hardened structures to enhance ”softer” nourishment strategies. However, this strategy would further modify the ability of nature to respond to natural forces. Nourishment programs are strongly cyclic and can act in or out of phase with natural cyclic (inlet migration, sea level variability) or stochastic (storms) drivers with significant effects on coastal response and predictions of coastal behavior. Economic cycles and events may similarly moderate timing and scale of coastal defense relative to natural drivers. Societal decisions to not, enhance and or even abandon and remove existing engineering structures as future forces and costs increase, can result in a disproportional response and potentially failure of a section of coast. Some communities have expressed confidence in the ability to maintain the oceanfront shoreline against most projections of sea level rise over the next 100 years. The long-term trend in sea level change may be less important than naturally occurring regional scale, seasonal to inter-annual to multi-decadal variability in sea level; and these are complex but deterministic. There is less confidence, however, in the ability to combat passive submergence and associated flooding issues behind the immediate oceanfront. To the extent that may influence commitment to defend the oceanfront could strongly influence coastal behavior and stability in the long term.

Final Technical Report for "Collaborative Research: Regional climate-change projections through next-generation empirical and dynamical models"

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robertson, A.W.; Ghil, M.; Kravtsov, K.

2011-04-08

This project was a continuation of previous work under DOE CCPP funding in which we developed a twin approach of non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHMMs) and coupled ocean-atmosphere (O-A) intermediate-complexity models (ICMs) to identify the potentially predictable modes of climate variability, and to investigate their impacts on the regional-scale. We have developed a family of latent-variable NHMMs to simulate historical records of daily rainfall, and used them to downscale seasonal predictions. We have also developed empirical mode reduction (EMR) models for gaining insight into the underlying dynamics in observational data and general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Using coupled O-A ICMs,more » we have identified a new mechanism of interdecadal climate variability, involving the midlatitude oceans mesoscale eddy field and nonlinear, persistent atmospheric response to the oceanic anomalies. A related decadal mode is also identified, associated with the oceans thermohaline circulation. The goal of the continuation was to build on these ICM results and NHMM/EMR model developments and software to strengthen two key pillars of support for the development and application of climate models for climate change projections on time scales of decades to centuries, namely: (a) dynamical and theoretical understanding of decadal-to-interdecadal oscillations and their predictability; and (b) an interface from climate models to applications, in order to inform societal adaptation strategies to climate change at the regional scale, including model calibration, correction, downscaling and, most importantly, assessment and interpretation of spread and uncertainties in multi-model ensembles. Our main results from the grant consist of extensive further development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling specifically within the non-stationary climate change context together with the development of parallelized software; application of NHMMs to downscaling of rainfall projections over India; identification and analysis of decadal climate signals in data and models; and, studies of climate variability in terms of the dynamics of atmospheric flow regimes. Each of these project components is elaborated on below, followed by a list of publications resulting from the grant.« less

Final Technical Report for "Collaborative Research. Regional climate-change projections through next-generation empirical and dynamical models"

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kravtsov, S.; Robertson, Andrew W.; Ghil, Michael

2011-04-08

This project was a continuation of previous work under DOE CCPP funding in which we developed a twin approach of non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHMMs) and coupled ocean-atmosphere (O-A) intermediate-complexity models (ICMs) to identify the potentially predictable modes of climate variability, and to investigate their impacts on the regional-scale. We have developed a family of latent-variable NHMMs to simulate historical records of daily rainfall, and used them to downscale seasonal predictions. We have also developed empirical mode reduction (EMR) models for gaining insight into the underlying dynamics in observational data and general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Using coupled O-A ICMs,more » we have identified a new mechanism of interdecadal climate variability, involving the midlatitude oceans mesoscale eddy field and nonlinear, persistent atmospheric response to the oceanic anomalies. A related decadal mode is also identified, associated with the oceans thermohaline circulation. The goal of the continuation was to build on these ICM results and NHMM/EMR model developments and software to strengthen two key pillars of support for the development and application of climate models for climate change projections on time scales of decades to centuries, namely: (a) dynamical and theoretical understanding of decadal-to-interdecadal oscillations and their predictability; and (b) an interface from climate models to applications, in order to inform societal adaptation strategies to climate change at the regional scale, including model calibration, correction, downscaling and, most importantly, assessment and interpretation of spread and uncertainties in multi-model ensembles. Our main results from the grant consist of extensive further development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling specifically within the non-stationary climate change context together with the development of parallelized software; application of NHMMs to downscaling of rainfall projections over India; identification and analysis of decadal climate signals in data and models; and, studies of climate variability in terms of the dynamics of atmospheric flow regimes. Each of these project components is elaborated on below, followed by a list of publications resulting from the grant.« less

Temporal clustering of floods in Germany: Do flood-rich and flood-poor periods exist?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merz, Bruno; Nguyen, Viet Dung; Vorogushyn, Sergiy

2016-10-01

The repeated occurrence of exceptional floods within a few years, such as the Rhine floods in 1993 and 1995 and the Elbe and Danube floods in 2002 and 2013, suggests that floods in Central Europe may be organized in flood-rich and flood-poor periods. This hypothesis is studied by testing the significance of temporal clustering in flood occurrence (peak-over-threshold) time series for 68 catchments across Germany for the period 1932-2005. To assess the robustness of the results, different methods are used: Firstly, the index of dispersion, which quantifies the departure from a homogeneous Poisson process, is investigated. Further, the time-variation of the flood occurrence rate is derived by non-parametric kernel implementation and the significance of clustering is evaluated via parametric and non-parametric tests. Although the methods give consistent overall results, the specific results differ considerably. Hence, we recommend applying different methods when investigating flood clustering. For flood estimation and risk management, it is of relevance to understand whether clustering changes with flood severity and time scale. To this end, clustering is assessed for different thresholds and time scales. It is found that the majority of catchments show temporal clustering at the 5% significance level for low thresholds and time scales of one to a few years. However, clustering decreases substantially with increasing threshold and time scale. We hypothesize that flood clustering in Germany is mainly caused by catchment memory effects along with intra- to inter-annual climate variability, and that decadal climate variability plays a minor role.

Trends in publications in fluvial geomorphology over two decades: A truly new era in the discipline owing to recent technological revolution?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Piégay, Hervé; Kondolf, G. Mathias; Minear, J. Toby; Vaudor, Lise

2015-01-01

Trends in the field of fluvial geomorphology have been reviewed by a number of authors, who have emphasized the dramatic change occuring in the field in the last two decades of the twentieth century, largely as a result of technological advances. Nevertheless, no prior authors have systematically compiled data on publications in fluvial geomorphology over a long period and statistically analyzed the resulting data set. In this contribution we present a quantitative analysis of fluvial geomorphology papers published in the twenty-two-year period 1987–2009 in five journals of the discipline with a more specific focus on Geomorphology and Earth Surface Processes and Landforms (ESPL), identifying authorships, geographic origin of authors, and spatial and temporal scales covered. We also documented the tools employed, demonstrating the transformation of the field with the emergence of new tools over this period, and conducted a cluster to highlight links between tools and a set of factors (country of author's origin, journals, time, and spatial and temporal scales). Of the 1717 papers published in the five journals during this period, the results showed an increased diversity in the nationality of the first author, mainly when dealing with present time scale, and channel feature. Our data show a significant change in methods used in the field as a result of the increase in data availability and new sources of information from remote sensing (ground, airborne and, satellite). Clearly, a new era in knowledge production is observed since 2000, showing the emergence of a second period of active quantification and an internationalization of the fields.

Global Meteorological Drought: A Synthesis of Current Understanding with a Focus on SST Drivers of Precipitation Deficits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, S.; Stewart, R.; Wang, H.; Barlow, M.; Berbery, H.; Cai, W.; Hoerling, M.; Kanikicharla, K.; Koster, R.; Lyon, B.;

Uncertainties in Past and Future Global Water Availability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, J.; Kam, J.

2014-12-01

Understanding how water availability changes on inter-annual to decadal time scales and how it may change in the future under climate change are a key part of understanding future stresses on water and food security. Historic evaluations of water availability on regional to global scales are generally based on large-scale model simulations with their associated uncertainties, in particular for long-term changes. Uncertainties are due to model errors and missing processes, parameter uncertainty, and errors in meteorological forcing data. Recent multi-model inter-comparisons and impact studies have highlighted large differences for past reconstructions, due to different simplifying assumptions in the models or the inclusion of physical processes such as CO2 fertilization. Modeling of direct anthropogenic factors such as water and land management also carry large uncertainties in their physical representation and from lack of socio-economic data. Furthermore, there is little understanding of the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings that underpin these historic simulations. Similarly, future changes in water availability are highly uncertain due to climate model diversity, natural variability and scenario uncertainty, each of which dominates at different time scales. In particular, natural climate variability is expected to dominate any externally forced signal over the next several decades. We present results from multi-land surface model simulations of the historic global availability of water in the context of natural variability (droughts) and long-term changes (drying). The simulations take into account the impact of uncertainties in the meteorological forcings and the incorporation of water management in the form of reservoirs and irrigation. The results indicate that model uncertainty is important for short-term drought events, and forcing uncertainty is particularly important for long-term changes, especially uncertainty in precipitation due to reduced gauge density in recent years. We also discuss uncertainties in future projections from these models as driven by bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP5 climate projections, in the context of the balance between climate model robustness and climate model diversity.

Can GRACE Explain Some of the Main Interannual Polar Motion Signatures?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, S.; Ivins, E. R.; Larour, E. Y.

2016-12-01

GRACE has provided a series of monthly solutions for water mass transport that now span a 14-year period. A natural question to ask is how much of this mass transport information might be used to reconstruct, theoretically, the non-tidal and non-Chandlerian polar motion at interannual time scales. Reconstruction of the pole position at interannual time scales since 2002 has been performed by Chen et al. (2013, GRL) and Adhikari and Ivins (2016, Science Advances). (The main feature of polar motion that has been evolving since the mid 1990's is the increasing dominance of Greenland ice mass loss.) Here we discuss this reconstruction and the level of error that occurs because of missing information about the spherical harmonic degree 1 and 2 terms and the lack of terms associated with angular momentum transfer in the Louiville equations. Using GRACE observations and complementary solutions of self-attraction/loading problem on an elastically compressible rotating earth, we show that ice mass losses from polar ice sheets, and when combined with changes in continental hydrology, explain nearly the entire amplitude (83±23%) and mean directional shift (within 5.9±7.6°) of recently observed eastward polar motion. We also show that decadal scale pole variations are directly linked to global changes in continental hydrology. The energy sources for such motions are likely to be associated with decadal scale ocean and atmospheric oscillations that also drive 20th century continental wet-dry variability. Interannual variability in pole position, therefore, offers a tool for assessing past stability of our climate, and for the future, now faced with an increased intensity in the water cycle and more vulnerable to ice sheet instability. Figure caption: Observed and reconstructed mean annual pole positions with respect to the 2003-2015 mean position. Blue error band is associated with the reconstructed solution; red signifies additional errors that are related to uncertainty in the long-term linear trend. Notice the interannual variability during the GRACE period.

No evidence for consistent long-term growth stimulation of 13 tropical tree species: results from tree-ring analysis.

PubMed

Groenendijk, Peter; van der Sleen, Peter; Vlam, Mart; Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh; Bongers, Frans; Zuidema, Pieter A

2015-10-01

The important role of tropical forests in the global carbon cycle makes it imperative to assess changes in their carbon dynamics for accurate projections of future climate-vegetation feedbacks. Forest monitoring studies conducted over the past decades have found evidence for both increasing and decreasing growth rates of tropical forest trees. The limited duration of these studies restrained analyses to decadal scales, and it is still unclear whether growth changes occurred over longer time scales, as would be expected if CO2 -fertilization stimulated tree growth. Furthermore, studies have so far dealt with changes in biomass gain at forest-stand level, but insights into species-specific growth changes - that ultimately determine community-level responses - are lacking. Here, we analyse species-specific growth changes on a centennial scale, using growth data from tree-ring analysis for 13 tree species (~1300 trees), from three sites distributed across the tropics. We used an established (regional curve standardization) and a new (size-class isolation) growth-trend detection method and explicitly assessed the influence of biases on the trend detection. In addition, we assessed whether aggregated trends were present within and across study sites. We found evidence for decreasing growth rates over time for 8-10 species, whereas increases were noted for two species and one showed no trend. Additionally, we found evidence for weak aggregated growth decreases at the site in Thailand and when analysing all sites simultaneously. The observed growth reductions suggest deteriorating growth conditions, perhaps due to warming. However, other causes cannot be excluded, such as recovery from large-scale disturbances or changing forest dynamics. Our findings contrast growth patterns that would be expected if elevated CO2 would stimulate tree growth. These results suggest that commonly assumed growth increases of tropical forests may not occur, which could lead to erroneous predictions of carbon dynamics of tropical forest under climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The bivalve Glycymeris planicostalis as a high-resolution paleoclimate archive for Rupelian (Early Oligocene) of Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walliser, E. O.; Schöne, B. R.; Tütken, T.; Zirkel, J.; Grimm, K. I.; Pross, J.

2014-10-01

Current global warming is likely to result in a unipolar glaciated world with unpredictable repercussions on atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. These changes are expected to affect seasonality as well as the frequency and intensity of decadal climate oscillations. To better constrain the mode and tempo of the anticipated changes, climatologists require high-resolution proxy data of time intervals in the past, e.g. the Early Oligocene during which boundary conditions were similar to those predicted for the near future. As demonstrated by the present study, pristinely preserved shells of the long-lived bivalve mollusk Glycymeris planicostalis from the late Rupelian of the Mainz Basin, Germany, provide an excellent archive to reconstruct changes of sea surface temperature on seasonal to inter-annual time scales. Their shells grew uninterruptedly during winter and summer and therefore recorded the full seasonal temperature amplitude that prevailed in the Mainz Basin 30 Ma ago. Absolute sea surface temperature data were faithfully reconstructed from δ18 Oshell values assuming a δ18Owater signature that was extrapolated from coeval sirenian tooth enamel. Extreme values ranged between 12.3 and 22.0°C and agree well with previous estimates based on planktonic foraminifera and shark teeth. However, summer and winter temperatures varied greatly on inter-annual time-scales. Winter and summer temperatures averaged over 40 annual increments of three specimens equaled 13.6 ± 0.8°C and 17.3 ± 1.2°C, respectively. Unless many samples are analyzed, this variability is hardly seen in foraminiferan tests. Our data also revealed decadal-scale oscillations of seasonal extremes which have - in the absence of appropriate climate archives - never been identified before for the Oligocene. This information can be highly relevant for numerical climate studies aiming to predict possible future climates in a unipolar glaciated or, ultimately, polar ice-free world.

Gained insights from combined high-frequency and long-term water quality monitoring in agricultural catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jomaa, Seifeddine; Dupas, Rémi; Musolff, Andreas; Rozemeijer, Joachim; Borchardt, Dietrich; Rode, Michael

2017-04-01

Despite extensive efforts to reduce nitrate (NO3) transfer in agricultural areas, the NO3 concentration in rivers often changes little. To investigate the reasons for this limited response, NO3 dynamics in a 100 km2 agricultural catchment in eastern Germany was analysed from decadal to infra-hourly time scales. First, Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) analysis of a 32-year (1982-2014) record of NO3 and discharge revealed that i) the long-term trend in NO3 concentration was closely related to that in discharge, suggesting that large-scale weather and climate patterns were masking the effect of improved nitrogen management on NO3 trends; ii) maximum winter and minimum summer concentrations had a persistent seasonal pattern, which was interpreted as a dynamic NO3 concentration from the soil and subsoil columns; and iii) the catchment progressively changed from chemodynamic to more chemostatic behaviour over the three decades of study, which is a sign of long-term homogenisation of NO3 concentrations in the profile. Second, infra-hourly (15 min time interval) analysis of storm-event dynamics during a typical hydrological year (2005-2006) was performed to identify periods of the year with high leaching risk and to link the latter to agricultural management practices in the catchment. Also, intra-hourly data was used to improve NO3 load estimation during storm events. An Event Response Reconstruction (ERR) model was built using NO3 concentration response descriptor variables and predictor variables deduced from discharge and precipitation records. The ERR approach significantly improved NO3 load estimates compared to linear interpolation of grab-sampling data (error was reduced from 10 to 1%). Finally, this study shows that detailed physical understanding of NO3 dynamics across time scales can be obtained only through combined analysis of long-term records and high-resolution sensor data. Hence, a joint effort is advocated between environmental authorities, who usually perform long-term monitoring, and scientific programmes, which usually perform high-resolution monitoring.

Watershed erosion estimated from a high-resolution sediment core reveals a non-stationary frequency-magnitude relationship and importance of seasonal climate drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gavin, D. G.; Colombaroli, D.; Morey, A. E.

2015-12-01

The inclusion of paleo-flood events greatly affects estimates of peak magnitudes (e.g., Q100) in flood-frequency analysis. Likewise, peak events also are associated with certain synoptic climatic patterns that vary on all time scales. Geologic records preserved in lake sediments have the potential to capture the non-stationarity in frequency-magnitude relationships, but few such records preserve a continuous history of event magnitudes. We present a 10-meter 2000-yr record from Upper Squaw Lake, Oregon, that contains finely laminated silt layers that reflect landscape erosion events from the 40 km2 watershed. CT-scans of the core (<1 mm resolution) and a 14C-dated chronology yielded a pseudo-annual time series of erosion magnitudes. The most recent 80 years of the record correlates strongly with annual peak stream discharge and road construction. We examined the frequency-magnitude relationship for the entire pre-road period and show that the seven largest events fall above a strongly linear relationship, suggesting a distinct process (e.g., severe fires or earthquakes) operating at low-frequency to generate large-magnitude events. Expressing the record as cumulative sediment accumulation anomalies showed the importance of the large events in "returning the system" to the long-term mean rate. Applying frequency-magnitude analysis in a moving window showed that the Q100 and Q10 of watershed erosion varied by 1.7 and 1.0 orders of magnitude, respectively. The variations in watershed erosion are weakly correlated with temperature and precipitation reconstructions at the decadal to centennial scale. This suggests that dynamics both internal (i.e., sediment production) and external (i.e., earthquakes) to the system, as well as more stochastic events (i.e., single severe wildfires) can at least partially over-ride external climate forcing of watershed erosion at decadal to centennial time scales.

Wildfires and geochemical change in a subalpine forest over the past six millennia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leys, Bérangère; Higuera, Philip E.; McLauchlan, Kendra K.; Dunnette, Paul V.

2016-12-01

The frequency of large wildfires in western North America has been increasing in recent decades, yet the geochemical impacts of these events are poorly understood. The multidecadal timescales of both disturbance-regime variability and ecosystem responses make it challenging to study the effects of fire on terrestrial nutrient cycling. Nonetheless, disturbance-mediated changes in nutrient concentrations could ultimately limit forest productivity over centennial to millennial time scales. Here, we use a novel approach that combines quantitative elemental analysis of lake sediments using x-ray fluorescence to assess the geochemical impacts of high-severity fires in a 6200 year long sedimentary record from a small subalpine lake in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA. Immediately after 17 high-severity fires, the sedimentary concentrations of five elements increased (Ti, Ca, K, Al, and P), but returned to pre-fire levels within three decades. Multivariate analyses indicate that erosion of weathered mineral material from the catchment is a primary mechanism though which high-severity fires impact element cycling. A longer-term trend in sediment geochemistry was also identified over millennial time scales. This decrease in the concentrations of six elements (Al, Si, K, Ti, Mn, and Fe) over the past 6200 years may have been due to a decreased rate of high-severity fires, long-term ecosystem development, or changes in precipitation regime. Our results indicate that high-severity fire events can determine elemental concentrations in subalpine forests. The degree of variability in geochemical response across time scales suggests that shifting rates of high-severity burning can cause significant changes in key rock-derived nutrients. To our knowledge, these results are the first to reveal repeated loss of rock-derived nutrients from the terrestrial ecosystem due to high-severity fires. Understanding the future of fire-prone coniferous forests requires further documentation and quantification of this important mechanism linking fire regimes and biogeochemical cycles.

Collaborative Research: Improving Decadal Prediction of Arctic Climate Variability and Change Using a Regional Arctic

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gutowski, William J.

This project developed and applied a regional Arctic System model for enhanced decadal predictions. It built on successful research by four of the current PIs with support from the DOE Climate Change Prediction Program, which has resulted in the development of a fully coupled Regional Arctic Climate Model (RACM) consisting of atmosphere, land-hydrology, ocean and sea ice components. An expanded RACM, a Regional Arctic System Model (RASM), has been set up to include ice sheets, ice caps, mountain glaciers, and dynamic vegetation to allow investigation of coupled physical processes responsible for decadal-scale climate change and variability in the Arctic. RASMmore » can have high spatial resolution (~4-20 times higher than currently practical in global models) to advance modeling of critical processes and determine the need for their explicit representation in Global Earth System Models (GESMs). The pan-Arctic region is a key indicator of the state of global climate through polar amplification. However, a system-level understanding of critical arctic processes and feedbacks needs further development. Rapid climate change has occurred in a number of Arctic System components during the past few decades, including retreat of the perennial sea ice cover, increased surface melting of the Greenland ice sheet, acceleration and thinning of outlet glaciers, reduced snow cover, thawing permafrost, and shifts in vegetation. Such changes could have significant ramifications for global sea level, the ocean thermohaline circulation and heat budget, ecosystems, native communities, natural resource exploration, and commercial transportation. The overarching goal of the RASM project has been to advance understanding of past and present states of arctic climate and to improve seasonal to decadal predictions. To do this the project has focused on variability and long-term change of energy and freshwater flows through the arctic climate system. The three foci of this research are: - Changes in the freshwater flux between arctic climate system components resulting from decadal changes in land and sea ice, seasonal snow, vegetation, and ocean circulation. - Changing energetics due to decadal changes in ice mass, vegetation, and air-sea interactions. - The role of small-scale atmospheric and oceanic processes that influence decadal variability. This research has been addressing modes of natural climate variability as well as extreme and rapid climate change. RASM can facilitate studies of climate impacts (e.g., droughts and fires) and of ecosystem adaptations to these impacts.« less

Unlocking the Secrets of Brain Signals (4K)

ScienceCinema

None

2018-06-21

Scientists have for the first time determined, at atomic-scale resolution, the 3-D structure of a protein complex that provides the ultrafast trigger for chemicals messages sent between nerve cells in our brains. The discovery, which provides a new understanding of the molecular machinery driving brain function, builds on decades of research at Stanford University, the Stanford School of Medicine and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory was made possible by SLAC’s Linac Coherent Light Source, an ultrabright X-ray laser.

Microstructurally Based Cross-slip Mechanisms and Their Effects on Dislocation Microstructure Evolution in fcc Crystals

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

still necessary. One such model that could bridge this gap is discrete dis- location dynamics ( DDD ) simulations, in which both the time- and length-scale...limitations from atomic simulations are greatly reduced. Over the past two decades, two-dimen- sional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) DDD methods have...dislocation ensem- bles according to physics-based rules [27–34]. The physics that can be incorporated in DDD simulations can range http://dx.doi.org

Unlocking the Secrets of Brain Signals (4K)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2015-08-17

Scientists have for the first time determined, at atomic-scale resolution, the 3-D structure of a protein complex that provides the ultrafast trigger for chemicals messages sent between nerve cells in our brains. The discovery, which provides a new understanding of the molecular machinery driving brain function, builds on decades of research at Stanford University, the Stanford School of Medicine and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory was made possible by SLAC’s Linac Coherent Light Source, an ultrabright X-ray laser.

Associations of multi-decadal sea-surface temperature variability with US drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Betancourt, J.L.; Gray, S.T.; Palecki, M.A.; Hidalgo, H.G.

2008-01-01

Recent research suggests a link between drought occurrence in the conterminous United States (US) and sea surface temperature (SST) variability in both the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans on decadal to multidecadal (D2M) time scales. Results show that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is the most consistent indicator of D2M drought variability in the conterminous US during the 20th century, but during the 19th century the tropical Pacific is a more consistent indicator of D2 M drought. The interaction between El Nin??o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the AMO explain a large part of the D2M drought variability in the conterminous US. More modeling studies are needed to reveal possible mechanisms linking low-frequency ENSO variability and the AMO with drought in the conterminous US. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA.

Timescales of Massive Human Entrainment

PubMed Central

Fusaroli, Riccardo; Perlman, Marcus; Mislove, Alan; Paxton, Alexandra; Matlock, Teenie; Dale, Rick

2015-01-01

The past two decades have seen an upsurge of interest in the collective behaviors of complex systems composed of many agents entrained to each other and to external events. In this paper, we extend the concept of entrainment to the dynamics of human collective attention. We conducted a detailed investigation of the unfolding of human entrainment—as expressed by the content and patterns of hundreds of thousands of messages on Twitter—during the 2012 US presidential debates. By time-locking these data sources, we quantify the impact of the unfolding debate on human attention at three time scales. We show that collective social behavior covaries second-by-second to the interactional dynamics of the debates: A candidate speaking induces rapid increases in mentions of his name on social media and decreases in mentions of the other candidate. Moreover, interruptions by an interlocutor increase the attention received. We also highlight a distinct time scale for the impact of salient content during the debates: Across well-known remarks in each debate, mentions in social media start within 5–10 seconds after it occurs; peak at approximately one minute; and slowly decay in a consistent fashion across well-known events during the debates. Finally, we show that public attention after an initial burst slowly decays through the course of the debates. Thus we demonstrate that large-scale human entrainment may hold across a number of distinct scales, in an exquisitely time-locked fashion. The methods and results pave the way for careful study of the dynamics and mechanisms of large-scale human entrainment. PMID:25880357

Characterizing Relativistic Electrons Flux Enhancement Events using sensors onboard SAMPEX and POLAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanekal, S. G.; Selesnick, R. S.; Baker, D. N.; Blake, J. B.

2004-12-01

Relativistic electron fluxes in the Earth's outer Van Allen belt are highly variable with flux enhancements of several orders of magnitude occurring on time scales of a few days. Radiation belt electrons often are energized to relativistic energies when the magnetosphere is subjected to high solar wind speed and the southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field. Characterization of electron acceleration properties such as electron spectra and flux isotropization are important in understanding acceleration models. We use sensors onboard SAMPEX and POLAR to measure and survey systematically these properties. SAMPEX measurements cover the entire outer zone for more than a decade from mid 1992 to mid 2004 and POLAR covers the time period from mid 1996 to the present. We use the pulse height analyzed data from the PET detector onboard SAMPEX to measure electron spectra. Fluxes measured by the HIST detector onboard POLAR together with the PET measurements are used to characterize isotropization times. This paper presents electron spectra and isotropization time scales for a few representative events. We will eventually extend these measurements and survey the entire solar cycle 23.

Spatiotemporal evolution of the chlorophyll a trend in the North Atlantic Ocean.

PubMed

Zhang, Min; Zhang, Yuanling; Shu, Qi; Zhao, Chang; Wang, Gang; Wu, Zhaohua; Qiao, Fangli

2018-01-15

Analyses of the chlorophyll a concentration (chla) from satellite ocean color products have suggested the decadal-scale variability of chla linked to the climate change. The decadal-scale variability in chla is both spatially and temporally non-uniform. We need to understand the spatiotemporal evolution of chla in decadal or multi-decadal timescales to better evaluate its linkage to climate variability. Here, the spatiotemporal evolution of the chla trend in the North Atlantic Ocean for the period 1997-2016 is analyzed using the multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition method. We find that this variable trend signal of chla shows a dipole pattern between the subpolar gyre and along the Gulf Stream path, and propagation along the opposite direction of the North Atlantic Current. This propagation signal has an overlapping variability of approximately twenty years. Our findings suggest that the spatiotemporal evolution of chla during the two most recent decades is part of the multidecadal variations and possibly regulated by the changes of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, whereas the mechanisms of such evolution patterns still need to be explored. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Historical analysis of interannual rainfall variability and trends in southeastern Brazil based on observational and remotely sensed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vásquez P., Isela L.; de Araujo, Lígia Maria Nascimento; Molion, Luiz Carlos Baldicero; de Araujo Abdalad, Mariana; Moreira, Daniel Medeiros; Sanchez, Arturo; Barbosa, Humberto Alves; Rotunno Filho, Otto Corrêa

2018-02-01

The Brazilian Southeast is considered a humid region. It is also prone to landslides and floods, a result of significant increases in rainfall during spring and summer caused by the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ). Recently, however, the region has faced a striking rainfall shortage, raising serious concerns regarding water availability. The present work endeavored to explain the meteorological drought that has led to hydrological imbalance and water scarcity in the region. Hodrick-Prescott smoothing and wavelet transform techniques were applied to long-term hydrologic and sea surface temperature (SST)—based climate indices monthly time series data in an attempt to detect cycles and trends that could help explain rainfall patterns and define a framework for improving the predictability of extreme events in the region. Historical observational hydrologic datasets available include monthly precipitation amounts gauged since 1888 and 1940 and stream flow measured since the 1930s. The spatial representativeness of rain gauges was tested against gridded rainfall satellite estimates from 2000 to 2015. The analyses revealed variability in four time scale domains—infra-annual, interannual, quasi-decadal and inter-decadal or multi-decadal. The strongest oscillations periods revealed were: for precipitation—8 months, 2, 8 and 32 years; for Pacific SST in the Niño-3.4 region—6 months, 2, 8 and 35.6 years, for North Atlantic SST variability—6 months, 2, 8 and 32 years and for Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index—6.19 months, 2.04, 8.35 and 27.31 years. Other periodicities less prominent but still statistically significant were also highlighted.

On the Observed Changes in Upper Stratospheric and Mesospheric Temperatures from UARS HALOE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remsberg, Ellis E.

2006-01-01

Temperature versus pressure or T(p) time series from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) have been extended and re-analyzed for the period of 1991-2005 and for the upper stratosphere and mesosphere in 10-degree wide latitude zones from 60S to 60N. Even though sampling from a solar occultation experiment is somewhat limited, it is shown to be quite adequate for developing both the seasonal and longer-term variations in T(p). Multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques were used in the re-analyses for the seasonal and the significant interannual, solar cycle (SC-like or decadal-scale), and linear trend terms. A simple SC-like term of 11-yr period was fitted to the time series residuals after accounting for the seasonal and interannual terms. Highly significant SC-like responses were found for both the upper mesosphere and the upper stratosphere. The phases of these SC-like terms were checked for their continuity with latitude and pressure-altitude, and in almost all cases they are directly in-phase with that of standard proxies for the solar flux variations. The analyzed, max minus min, responses at low latitudes are of order 1 K, while at middle latitudes they are as large as 3 K in the upper mesosphere. Highly significant, linear cooling trends were found at middle latitudes of the middle to upper mesosphere (about -2 K/decade), at tropical latitudes of the middle mesosphere (about -1 K/decade), and at 2 hPa (or order -1 K/decade).

Increasing of eddy activity in the northeastern Pacific during 1993-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, M.; Lin, P.; Liu, H.; Chai, F.

2017-12-01

We study the long-term behaviors of eddy activity in the northeastern Pacific (NEP) and the dynamic mechanism behind them based on the 3rd version of the mesoscale eddy trajectories dataset released by Chelton et al. (2013) combined with other observation and reanalysis datasets. Both the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) and eddy occurrence number (EON) present prominent increasing trends, with inter-annual and decadal variabilities northeast of the Hawaii-Emperor seamounts. The increasing trend of the EON is mainly due to prolongation of the eddy lifetime associated with the eddy intensification, particularly for anticyclonic eddies (AEs). Weakened surface winds tend to prolong the eddy lifetimes, as the eddy attenuation time scale is inversely proportional to the wind speed. The enhanced anticyclonic wind stress curl (WSC) anomalies inject more energy into the AE over the study region and provide a more suitable environment for AEs growth. The decadal climate modes, such as the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the North Pacific gyre oscillation (NPGO), may also modulate eddy activities in the NEP by exerting fluctuations in the surface wind system.

Time dependent data, time independent models: challenges of updating Australia's National Seismic Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Griffin, J.; Clark, D.; Allen, T.; Ghasemi, H.; Leonard, M.

2017-12-01

Standard probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) simulates earthquake occurrence as a time-independent process. However paleoseismic studies in slowly deforming regions such as Australia show compelling evidence that large earthquakes on individual faults cluster within active periods, followed by long periods of quiescence. Therefore the instrumental earthquake catalog, which forms the basis of PSHA earthquake recurrence calculations, may only capture the state of the system over the period of the catalog. Together this means that data informing our PSHA may not be truly time-independent. This poses challenges in developing PSHAs for typical design probabilities (such as 10% in 50 years probability of exceedance): Is the present state observed through the instrumental catalog useful for estimating the next 50 years of earthquake hazard? Can paleo-earthquake data, that shows variations in earthquake frequency over time-scales of 10,000s of years or more, be robustly included in such PSHA models? Can a single PSHA logic tree be useful over a range of different probabilities of exceedance? In developing an updated PSHA for Australia, decadal-scale data based on instrumental earthquake catalogs (i.e. alternative area based source models and smoothed seismicity models) is integrated with paleo-earthquake data through inclusion of a fault source model. Use of time-dependent non-homogeneous Poisson models allows earthquake clustering to be modeled on fault sources with sufficient paleo-earthquake data. This study assesses the performance of alternative models by extracting decade-long segments of the instrumental catalog, developing earthquake probability models based on the remaining catalog, and testing performance against the extracted component of the catalog. Although this provides insights into model performance over the short-term, for longer timescales it is recognised that model choice is subject to considerable epistemic uncertainty. Therefore a formal expert elicitation process has been used to assign weights to alternative models for the 2018 update to Australia's national PSHA.

Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society.

PubMed

Santo, H; Taylor, P H; Gibson, R

2016-09-01

Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958-2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different.

An inter-decadal increase in summer sea level pressure over the Mongolian region around the early 1990s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Haiyan; Wen, Zhiping; Wu, Renguang; Li, Xiuzhen; Chen, Ruidan

2018-05-01

The East Asian summer monsoon is affected by processes in the mid-high latitudes in addition to various tropical and subtropical systems. The present study investigates the summer sea level pressure (SLP) variability over northern East Asia (NEA) and emphasizes the closed active center over the Mongolian region. It is found that the seasonal mean Mongolian SLP (MSLP) anomaly is closely connected with the variability of summertime regional synoptic extra-tropical cyclones on longer time scales. A significant inter-decadal increase in the MSLP around the early 1990s has been detected, which is accompanied by a weakening in the activity of regional extra-tropical cyclones. Recent warming over NEA may have a contribution to the inter-decadal change, which features evidently meridional inhomogeneity around 45°N. The inhomogeneous air temperature anomaly distribution results in decreased vertical wind shear, reduced atmospheric baroclinicity over the Mongolian region, and thus inactive regional cyclones and increased MSLP in the latter decade. The associated temperature anomaly distribution may be partly attributed to regional inhomogeneity in cloud and radiation anomalies, and it is further maintained by two positive feedback mechanisms associated with atmospheric internal processes: one via adiabatic heating and the other via horizontal temperature advection.

Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santo, H.; Taylor, P. H.; Gibson, R.

2016-09-01

Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958-2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different.

Early summer precipitation in the lower Yangtze River basin for AD 1845-2011 based on tree-ring cellulose oxygen isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Chenxi; Shi, Jiangfeng; Zhao, Yesi; Nakatsuka, Takeshi; Sano, Masaki; Shi, Shiyuan; Guo, Zhengtang

2018-04-01

Precipitation from June to August is generally used to reflect the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) variability. However, the principal modes of the EASM rainfall are different between May-June (MJ) and July-August due to the seasonal march of East Asian subtropical front. Therefore, it is necessary to study them separately. In this study, we reconstruct a 167-year MJ precipitation time series using tree-ring cellulose δ18O that explains 46.9% of the variance in the lower Yangtze River basin, Southeast China, that extends the meteorological data back more than 100 years and makes the precipitation study at decadal scales possible. The decades with 5 or more anomalously dry or wet years are the 1880s, 1890s, and 1910s, and the 1980s and 2000s have only one anomalous year per decade. MJ precipitation shows a significantly negative relationship with absolute Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature, especially during the developing phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation, indicating that there is less rainfall during El Niño events. However, the relationship is not uniform throughout the period. Further analyses show that it is stronger when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is in its positive phases.

Vegetation Interaction Enhances Interdecadal Climate Variability in the Sahel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeng, Ning; Neelin, J. David; Lau, William K.-M.

1999-01-01

The role of naturally varying vegetation in influencing the climate variability in the Sahel is explored in a coupled atmosphere-land-vegetation model. The Sahel rainfall variability is influenced by sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the oceans. Land-surface feedback is found to increase this variability both on interannual and interdecadal time scales. Interactive vegetation enhances the interdecadal variation significantly, but can reduce year to year variability due to a phase lag introduced by the relatively slow vegetation adjustment time. Variations in vegetation accompany the changes in rainfall, in particular, the multi-decadal drying trend from the 1950s to the 80s.

Evaluation of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) for remote wetland monitoring: design and initial results.

PubMed

Watras, Carl J; Morrow, Michael; Morrison, Ken; Scannell, Sean; Yaziciaglu, Steve; Read, Jordan S; Hu, Yu-Hen; Hanson, Paul C; Kratz, Tim

2014-02-01

Here, we describe and evaluate two low-power wireless sensor networks (WSNs) designed to remotely monitor wetland hydrochemical dynamics over time scales ranging from minutes to decades. Each WSN (one student-built and one commercial) has multiple nodes to monitor water level, precipitation, evapotranspiration, temperature, and major solutes at user-defined time intervals. Both WSNs can be configured to report data in near real time via the internet. Based on deployments in two isolated wetlands, we report highly resolved water budgets, transient reversals of flow path, rates of transpiration from peatlands and the dynamics of chromophoric-dissolved organic matter and bulk ionic solutes (specific conductivity)-all on daily or subdaily time scales. Initial results indicate that direct precipitation and evapotranspiration dominate the hydrologic budget of both study wetlands, despite their relatively flat geomorphology and proximity to elevated uplands. Rates of transpiration from peatland sites were typically greater than evaporation from open waters but were more challenging to integrate spatially. Due to the high specific yield of peat, the hydrologic gradient between peatland and open water varied with precipitation events and intervening periods of dry out. The resultant flow path reversals implied that the flux of solutes across the riparian boundary varied over daily time scales. We conclude that WSNs can be deployed in remote wetland-dominated ecosystems at relatively low cost to assess the hydrochemical impacts of weather, climate, and other perturbations.

Comparing emerging and mature markets during times of crises: A non-extensive statistical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Namaki, A.; Koohi Lai, Z.; Jafari, G. R.; Raei, R.; Tehrani, R.

2013-07-01

One of the important issues in finance and economics for both scholars and practitioners is to describe the behavior of markets, especially during times of crises. In this paper, we analyze the behavior of some mature and emerging markets with a Tsallis entropy framework that is a non-extensive statistical approach based on non-linear dynamics. During the past decade, this technique has been successfully applied to a considerable number of complex systems such as stock markets in order to describe the non-Gaussian behavior of these systems. In this approach, there is a parameter q, which is a measure of deviation from Gaussianity, that has proved to be a good index for detecting crises. We investigate the behavior of this parameter in different time scales for the market indices. It could be seen that the specified pattern for q differs for mature markets with regard to emerging markets. The findings show the robustness of the stated approach in order to follow the market conditions over time. It is obvious that, in times of crises, q is much greater than in other times. In addition, the response of emerging markets to global events is delayed compared to that of mature markets, and tends to a Gaussian profile on increasing the scale. This approach could be very useful in application to risk and portfolio management in order to detect crises by following the parameter q in different time scales.

A Cutoff in the X-Ray Fluctuation Power Density Spectrum of the Seyfert 1 Galaxy NGC 3516

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Edelson, Rick; Nandra, Kirpal

1999-01-01

During 1997 March-July, RXTE observed the bright, strongly variable Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 3516 once every approx. 12.8 hr for 4.5 months and nearly continuously (with interruptions due to SAA passage but not Earth occultation) for a 4.2 day period in the middle. These were followed by ongoing monitoring once every approx. 4.3 days. These data are used to construct the first well-determined X-ray fluctuation power density spectrum (PDS) of an active galaxy to span more than 4 decades of usable temporal frequency. The PDS shows no signs of any strict or quasi-periodicity, but does show a progressive flattening of the power-low slope from -1.74 at short time scales to -0.73 at longer time scales. This is the clearest observation to date of the long-predicted cutoff in the PDS. The characteristic variability time scale corresponding to this cutoff temporal frequency is approx. 1 month. Although it is unclear how this time scale may be interpreted in terms of a physical size or process, there are several promising candidate models. The PDS appears similar to those seen for Galactic black hole candidates such as Cyg X-1, suggesting that these two classes of objects with very different luminosities and putative black hole masses (differing by more than a factor of 10(exp 5)) may have similar X-ray generation processes and structures.

A new reference frame for astronomically-tuned Plio-Pleistocene climate variability derived from a benthic oxygen isotope splice of the Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lourens, L. J.; Ziegler, M.; Konijnendijk, T. Y. M.; Hilgen, F. J.; Bos, R.; Beekvelt, B.; van Loevezijn, A.; Collin, S.

2017-12-01

The astronomical theory of climate has revolutionized our understanding of past climate change and the development of highly accurate geologic time scales for the entire Cenozoic. Most of this understanding has come from the construction of astronomically tuned global ocean benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope (δ18O) stacked record, derived by the international drilling operations of DSDP, ODP and IODP. The tuning includes fixed phase relationships between the obliquity and precession cycles and the inferred high-latitude climate, i.e. glacial-interglacial, response, which hark back to SPECMAP, using simple ice sheet models and a limited number of radiometric dates. This approach was largely implemented in the widely applied LR04 stack, though LR04 assumed shorter response times for the smaller ice caps during the Pliocene. In the past decades, an astronomically calibrated time scale for the Pliocene and Pleistocene of the Mediterranean has been developed, which has become the reference for the standard Geologic Time Scale. Typical of the Mediterranean marine sediments are the cyclic lithological alternations, reflecting the interference between obliquity and precession-paced low latitude climate variability, such as the African monsoon. Here we present the first benthic foraminiferal based oxygen isotope record of the Mediterranean reference scale, which strikingly mirrors the LR04. We will use this record to discuss the assumed open ocean glacial-interglacial related phase relations over the past 5.3 million years.

Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming.

PubMed

Youngsteadt, Elsa; Dale, Adam G; Terando, Adam J; Dunn, Robert R; Frank, Steven D

2015-01-01

Cities experience elevated temperature, CO2 , and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long-term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present-day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural-forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Land surface phenological responses to land use and climate variation in a changing Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kariyeva, Jahan

During the last few decades Central Asia has experienced widespread changes in land cover and land use following the socio-economic and institutional transformations of the region catalyzed by the USSR collapse in 1991. The decade-long drought events and steadily increasing temperature regimes in the region came on top of these institutional transformations, affecting the long term and landscape scale vegetation responses. This research is based on the need to better understand the potential ecological and policy implications of climate variation and land use practices in the contexts of landscape-scale changes dynamics and variability patterns of land surface phenology responses in Central Asia. The land surface phenology responses -- the spatio-temporal dynamics of terrestrial vegetation derived from the remotely sensed data -- provide measurements linked to the timing of vegetation growth cycles (e.g., start of growing season) and total vegetation productivity over the growing season, which are used as a proxy for the assessment of effects of variations in environmental settings. Local and regional scale assessment of the before and after the USSR collapse vegetation response patterns in the natural and agricultural systems of the Central Asian drylands was conducted to characterize newly emerging links (since 1991) between coupled human and natural systems, e.g., socio-economic and policy drivers of altered land and water use and distribution patterns. Spatio-temporal patterns of bioclimatic responses were examined to determine how phenology is associated with temperature and precipitation in different land use types, including rainfed and irrigated agricultural types. Phenological models were developed to examine relationship between environmental drivers and effect of their altitudinal and latitudinal gradients on the broad-scale vegetation response patterns in non-cropland ecosystems of the desert, steppe, and mountainous regional landscapes of Central Asia. The study results demonstrated that the satellite derived measurements of temporal cycles of vegetation greenness and productivity data was a valuable bioclimatic integrator of climatic and land use variation in Central Asia. The synthesis of broad-scale phenological changes in Central Asia showed that linkages of natural and human systems vary across space and time comprising complex and tightly integrated patterns and processes that are not evident when studied separately.

Real-time evolution of a large-scale relativistic jet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martí, Josep; Luque-Escamilla, Pedro L.; Romero, Gustavo E.; Sánchez-Sutil, Juan R.; Muñoz-Arjonilla, Álvaro J.

2015-06-01

Context. Astrophysical jets are ubiquitous in the Universe on all scales, but their large-scale dynamics and evolution in time are hard to observe since they usually develop at a very slow pace. Aims: We aim to obtain the first observational proof of the expected large-scale evolution and interaction with the environment in an astrophysical jet. Only jets from microquasars offer a chance to witness the real-time, full-jet evolution within a human lifetime, since they combine a "short", few parsec length with relativistic velocities. Methods: The methodology of this work is based on a systematic recalibraton of interferometric radio observations of microquasars available in public archives. In particular, radio observations of the microquasar GRS 1758-258 over less than two decades have provided the most striking results. Results: Significant morphological variations in the extended jet structure of GRS 1758-258 are reported here that were previously missed. Its northern radio lobe underwent a major morphological variation that rendered the hotspot undetectable in 2001 and reappeared again in the following years. The reported changes confirm the Galactic nature of the source. We tentatively interpret them in terms of the growth of instabilities in the jet flow. There is also evidence of surrounding cocoon. These results can provide a testbed for models accounting for the evolution of jets and their interaction with the environment.

Neighborhood street scale elements, sedentary time and cardiometabolic risk factors in inactive ethnic minority women.

PubMed

Lee, Rebecca E; Mama, Scherezade K; Adamus-Leach, Heather J

2012-01-01

Cardiometabolic risk factors such as obesity, excess percent body fat, high blood pressure, elevated resting heart rate and sedentary behavior have increased in recent decades due to changes in the environment and lifestyle. Neighborhood micro-environmental, street scale elements may contribute to health above and beyond individual characteristics of residents. To investigate the relationship between neighborhood street scale elements and cardiometabolic risk factors among inactive ethnic minority women. Women (N = 410) completed measures of BMI, percent body fat, blood pressure, resting heart rate, sedentary behavior and demographics. Trained field assessors completed the Pedestrian Environment Data Scan in participants' neighborhoods. Data were collected from 2006-2008. Multiple regression models were conducted in 2011 to estimate the effect of environmental factors on cardiometabolic risk factors. Adjusted regression models found an inverse association between sidewalk buffers and blood pressure, between traffic control devices and resting heart rate, and a positive association between presence of pedestrian crossing aids and BMI (ps<.05). Neighborhood attractiveness and safety for walking and cycling were related to more time spent in a motor vehicle (ps<.05). Findings suggest complex relationships among micro-environmental, street scale elements that may confer important cardiometabolic benefits and risks for residents. Living in the most attractive and safe neighborhoods for physical activity may be associated with longer times spent sitting in the car.

Ghost reefs: Nautical charts document large spatial scale of coral reef loss over 240 years

PubMed Central

McClenachan, Loren; O’Connor, Grace; Neal, Benjamin P.; Pandolfi, John M.; Jackson, Jeremy B. C.

2017-01-01

Massive declines in population abundances of marine animals have been documented over century-long time scales. However, analogous loss of spatial extent of habitat-forming organisms is less well known because georeferenced data are rare over long time scales, particularly in subtidal, tropical marine regions. We use high-resolution historical nautical charts to quantify changes to benthic structure over 240 years in the Florida Keys, finding an overall loss of 52% (SE, 6.4%) of the area of the seafloor occupied by corals. We find a strong spatial dimension to this decline; the spatial extent of coral in Florida Bay and nearshore declined by 87.5% (SE, 7.2%) and 68.8% (SE, 7.5%), respectively, whereas that of offshore areas of coral remained largely intact. These estimates add to finer-scale loss in live coral cover exceeding 90% in some locations in recent decades. The near-complete elimination of the spatial coverage of nearshore coral represents an underappreciated spatial component of the shifting baseline syndrome, with important lessons for other species and ecosystems. That is, modern surveys are typically designed to assess change only within the species’ known, extant range. For species ranging from corals to sea turtles, this approach may overlook spatial loss over longer time frames, resulting in both overly optimistic views of their current conservation status and underestimates of their restoration potential. PMID:28913420

Semantic transparency affects morphological priming . . . eventually.

PubMed

Heyer, Vera; Kornishova, Dana

2018-05-01

Semantic transparency has been in the focus of psycholinguistic research for decades, with the controversy about the time course of the application of morpho-semantic information during the processing of morphologically complex words not yet resolved. This study reports two masked priming studies with English - ness and Russian - ost' nominalisations, investigating how semantic transparency modulates native speakers' morphological priming effects at short and long stimulus onset asynchronies (SOAs). In both languages, we found increased morphological priming for nominalisations at the transparent end of the scale (e.g. paleness - pale) in comparison to items at the opaque end of the scale (e.g. business - busy) but only at longer prime durations. The present findings are in line with models that posit an initial phase of morpho-orthographic (semantically blind) decomposition.

Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security Worldwide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua

2015-01-01

The combination of a warming Earth and an increasing population will likely strain the world's food systems in the coming decades. Experts involved with the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) focus on quantifying the changes through time. AgMIP, a program begun in 2010, involves about 800 climate scientists, economists, nutritionists, information technology specialists, and crop and livestock experts. In mid-September 2015, the Aspen Global Change Institute convened an AgMIP workshop to draft plans and protocols for assessing global- and regional-scale modeling of crops, livestock, economics, and nutrition across major agricultural regions worldwide. The goal of this Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments (CGRA) project is to characterize climate effects on large- and small-scale farming systems.

Applying Metrological Techniques to Satellite Fundamental Climate Data Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woolliams, Emma R.; Mittaz, Jonathan PD; Merchant, Christopher J.; Hunt, Samuel E.; Harris, Peter M.

2018-02-01

Quantifying long-term environmental variability, including climatic trends, requires decadal-scale time series of observations. The reliability of such trend analysis depends on the long-term stability of the data record, and understanding the sources of uncertainty in historic, current and future sensors. We give a brief overview on how metrological techniques can be applied to historical satellite data sets. In particular we discuss the implications of error correlation at different spatial and temporal scales and the forms of such correlation and consider how uncertainty is propagated with partial correlation. We give a form of the Law of Propagation of Uncertainties that considers the propagation of uncertainties associated with common errors to give the covariance associated with Earth observations in different spectral channels.

When Worlds Collide: Witnessing Planetary-Scale Impacts in the Coming Decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masiero, J. R.; Bauer, J. M.; Grav, T.; Mainzer, A. K.

2017-02-01

Asteroid impacts offer a unique opportunity to study the collisional processes that shape planetary systems. In the coming decades, expanded surveys may give us the chance to predict an impact with enough advance warning to observe it in situ.

Application of Millisecond Pulsar Timing to the Long-Term Stability of Clock Ensembles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foster, Roger S.; Matsakis, Demetrios N.

1996-01-01

We review the application of millisecond pulsars to define a precise long-term standard and positional reference system in a nearly inertial reference frame. We quantify the current timing precision of the best millisecond pulsars and define the required precise time and time interval (PTTI) accuracy and stability to enable time transfer via pulsars. Pulsars may prove useful as independent standards to examine decade-long timing stability and provide an independent natural system within which to calibrate any new, perhaps vastly improved atomic time scale. Since pulsar stability appears to be related to the lifetime of the pulsar, the new millisecond pulsar J173+0747 is projected to have a 100-day accuracy equivalent to a single HP5071 cesium standard. Over the last five years, dozens of new millisecond pulsars have been discovered. A few of the new millisecond pulsars may have even better timing properties.

Recent Trends in Local-Scale Marine Biodiversity Reflect Community Structure and Human Impacts.

PubMed

Elahi, Robin; O'Connor, Mary I; Byrnes, Jarrett E K; Dunic, Jillian; Eriksson, Britas Klemens; Hensel, Marc J S; Kearns, Patrick J

2015-07-20

The modern biodiversity crisis reflects global extinctions and local introductions. Human activities have dramatically altered rates and scales of processes that regulate biodiversity at local scales. Reconciling the threat of global biodiversity loss with recent evidence of stability at fine spatial scales is a major challenge and requires a nuanced approach to biodiversity change that integrates ecological understanding. With a new dataset of 471 diversity time series spanning from 1962 to 2015 from marine coastal ecosystems, we tested (1) whether biodiversity changed at local scales in recent decades, and (2) whether we can ignore ecological context (e.g., proximate human impacts, trophic level, spatial scale) and still make informative inferences regarding local change. We detected a predominant signal of increasing species richness in coastal systems since 1962 in our dataset, though net species loss was associated with localized effects of anthropogenic impacts. Our geographically extensive dataset is unlikely to be a random sample of marine coastal habitats; impacted sites (3% of our time series) were underrepresented relative to their global presence. These local-scale patterns do not contradict the prospect of accelerating global extinctions but are consistent with local species loss in areas with direct human impacts and increases in diversity due to invasions and range expansions in lower impact areas. Attempts to detect and understand local biodiversity trends are incomplete without information on local human activities and ecological context. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

When will trends in European mean and heavy daily precipitation emerge?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maraun, Douglas

2013-03-01

A multi-model ensemble of regional climate projections for Europe is employed to investigate how the time of emergence (TOE) for seasonal sums and maxima of daily precipitation depends on spatial scale. The TOE is redefined for emergence from internal variability only; the spread of the TOE due to imperfect climate model formulation is used as a measure of uncertainty in the TOE itself. Thereby, the TOE becomes a fundamentally limiting timescale and translates into a minimum spatial scale on which robust conclusions can be drawn about precipitation trends. Thus, minimum temporal and spatial scales for adaptation planning are also given. In northern Europe, positive winter trends in mean and heavy precipitation, and in southwestern and southeastern Europe, summer trends in mean precipitation already emerge within the next few decades. However, across wide areas, especially for heavy summer precipitation, the local trend emerges only late in the 21st century or later. For precipitation averaged to larger scales, the trend, in general, emerges earlier.

Saving Moore’s Law Down To 1 nm Channels With Anisotropic Effective Mass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ilatikhameneh, Hesameddin; Ameen, Tarek; Novakovic, Bozidar; Tan, Yaohua; Klimeck, Gerhard; Rahman, Rajib

2016-08-01

Scaling transistors’ dimensions has been the thrust for the semiconductor industry in the last four decades. However, scaling channel lengths beyond 10 nm has become exceptionally challenging due to the direct tunneling between source and drain which degrades gate control, switching functionality, and worsens power dissipation. Fortunately, the emergence of novel classes of materials with exotic properties in recent times has opened up new avenues in device design. Here, we show that by using channel materials with an anisotropic effective mass, the channel can be scaled down to 1 nm and still provide an excellent switching performance in phosphorene nanoribbon MOSFETs. To solve power consumption challenge besides dimension scaling in conventional transistors, a novel tunnel transistor is proposed which takes advantage of anisotropic mass in both ON- and OFF-state of the operation. Full-band atomistic quantum transport simulations of phosphorene nanoribbon MOSFETs and TFETs based on the new design have been performed as a proof.

A Historical Perspective on Dynamics Testing at the Langley Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horta, Lucas G.; Kvaternik, Raymond G.

2000-01-01

The history of structural dynamics testing research over the past four decades at the Langley Research Center of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration is reviewed. Beginning in the early sixties, Langley investigated several scale model and full-scale spacecraft including the NIMBUS and various concepts for Apollo and Viking landers. Langley engineers pioneered the use of scaled models to study the dynamics of launch vehicles including Saturn I, Saturn V, and Titan III. In the seventies, work emphasized the Space Shuttle and advanced test and data analysis methods. In the eighties, the possibility of delivering large structures to orbit by the Space Shuttle shifted focus towards understanding the interaction of flexible space structures with attitude control systems. Although Langley has maintained a tradition of laboratory-based research, some flight experiments were supported. This review emphasizes work that, in some way, advanced the state of knowledge at the time.

Remembrance of ecohydrologic extremes past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Band, L. E.; Hwang, T.

2013-12-01

Ecohydrological systems operate at time scales that span several orders of magnitude. Significant processes and feedbacks range from subdaily physiologic response to meteorological drivers, to soil forming and geomorphic processes ranging up through 10^3-10^4 years. While much attention in ecohydrology has focused on ecosystem optimization paradigms, these systems can show significant transience in structure and function, with apparent memory of hydroclimate extremes and regime shifts. While optimization feedbacks can be reconciled with system transience, a better understanding of the time scales and mechanisms of adjustment to increased hydroclimate variability and to specific events is required to understand and predict dynamics and vulnerability of ecosystems. Under certain circumstances of slowly varying hydroclimate, we hypothesize that ecosystems can remain adjusted to changing climate regimes, without displaying apparent system memory. Alternatively, rapid changes in hydroclimate and increased hydroclimate variability, amplified with well expressed non-linearity in the processes controlling feedbacks between water, carbon and nutrients, can move ecosystems far from adjusted states. The Coweeta Hydrological Laboratory is typical of humid, broadleaf forests in eastern North America, with a range of forest biomes from northern hardwoods at higher elevations, to oak-pine assemblages at lower elevations. The site provides almost 80 years of rainfall-runoff records for a set of watersheds under different management, along with multi-decadal forest plot structural information, soil moisture conditions and stream chemistry. An initial period of multi-decadal cooling, was followed by three decades of warming and increased hydroclimate variability. While mean temperature has risen over this time period, precipitation shows no long term trends in the mean, but has had a significant rise in variability with repeated extreme drought and wet periods. Over this latter period, intra and interannual shifts of canopy structure and phenology are discernable, along with long term canopy adjustment. We use a combination of field observations, long term remote sensing records and distributed ecohydrological modeling to investigate transient behavior, apparent memory and mechanisms of ecosystem adjustment to hydroclimate variability and change over the range of biomes in the watershed.

Multidecadal Rates of Disturbance- and Climate Change-Induced Land Cover Change in Arctic and Boreal Ecosystems over Western Canada and Alaska Inferred from Dense Landsat Time Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Sulla-menashe, D. J.; Woodcock, C. E.; Sonnentag, O.; Friedl, M. A.

2017-12-01

Rapid climate change in arctic and boreal ecosystems is driving changes to land cover composition, including woody expansion in the arctic tundra, successional shifts following boreal fires, and thaw-induced wetland expansion and forest collapse along the southern limit of permafrost. The impacts of these land cover transformations on the physical climate and the carbon cycle are increasingly well-documented from field and model studies, but there have been few attempts to empirically estimate rates of land cover change at decadal time scale and continental spatial scale. Previous studies have used too coarse spatial resolution or have been too limited in temporal range to enable broad multi-decadal assessment of land cover change. As part of NASA's Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE), we are using dense time series of Landsat remote sensing data to map disturbances and classify land cover types across the ABoVE extended domain (spanning western Canada and Alaska) over the last three decades (1982-2014) at 30 m resolution. We utilize regionally-complete and repeated acquisition high-resolution (<2 m) DigitalGlobe imagery to generate training data from across the region that follows a nested, hierarchical classification scheme encompassing plant functional type and cover density, understory type, wetland status, and land use. Additionally, we crosswalk plot-level field data into our scheme for additional high quality training sites. We use the Continuous Change Detection and Classification algorithm to estimate land cover change dates and temporal-spectral features in the Landsat data. These features are used to train random forest classification models and map land cover and analyze land cover change processes, focusing primarily on tundra "shrubification", post-fire succession, and boreal wetland expansion. We will analyze the high resolution data based on stratified random sampling of our change maps to validate and assess the accuracy of our model predictions. In this paper, we present initial results from this effort, including sub-regional analyses focused on several key areas, such as the Taiga Plains and the Southern Arctic ecozones, to calibrate our random forest models and assess results.

Low order climate models as a tool for cross-disciplinary collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newton, R.; Pfirman, S. L.; Tremblay, B.; Schlosser, P.

2014-12-01

Human impacts on climate are pervasive and significant and project future states cannot be projected without taking human influence into account. We recently helped convene a meeting of climatologists, policy analysts, lawyers and social scientists to discuss the dramatic loss in Arctic summer sea ice. A dialogue emerged around distinct time scales in the integrated human/natural climate system. Climate scientists tended to discuss engineering solutions as though they could be implemented immediately, whereas lags of 2 or more decades were estimated by social scientists for societal shifts and similar lags were cited for deployment by the engineers. Social scientists tended to project new climate states virtually overnight, while climatologists described time scales of decades to centuries for the system to respond to changes in forcing functions. For the conversation to develop, the group had to come to grips with an increasingly complex set of transient effect time scales and lags between decisions, changes in forcing, and system outputs. We use several low-order dynamical system models to explore mismatched timescales, ranges of lags, and uncertainty in cost estimates on climate outcomes, focusing on Arctic-specific issues. In addition to lessons regarding what is/isn't feasible from a policy and engineering perspective, these models provide a useful tool to concretize cross-disciplinary thinking. They are fast and easy to iterate through a large region of the problem space, while including surprising complexity in their evolution. Thus they are appropriate for investigating the implications of policy in an efficient, but not unrealistic physical setting. (Earth System Models, by contrast, can be too resource- and time-intensive for iteratively testing "what if" scenarios in cross-disciplinary collaborations.) Our runs indicate, for example, that the combined social, engineering and climate physics lags make it extremely unlikely that an ice-free summer ecology in the Arctic can be avoided. Further, if prospective remediation strategies are successful, a return to perennial ice conditions between one and two centuries from now is entirely likely, with interesting and large impacts on Northern economies.

Digital Accessible Knowledge and well-inventoried sites for birds in Mexico: baseline sites for measuring faunistic change

PubMed Central

Navarro-Sigüenza, Adolfo G.; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique

2016-01-01

Background Faunal change is a basic and fundamental element in ecology, biogeography, and conservation biology, yet vanishingly few detailed studies have documented such changes rigorously over decadal time scales. This study responds to that gap in knowledge, providing a detailed analysis of Digital Accessible Knowledge of the birds of Mexico, designed to marshal DAK to identify sites that were sampled and inventoried rigorously prior to the beginning of major global climate change (1980). Methods We accumulated DAK records for Mexican birds from all relevant online biodiversity data portals. After extensive cleaning steps, we calculated completeness indices for each 0.05° pixel across the country; we also detected ‘hotspots’ of sampling, and calculated completeness indices for these broader areas as well. Sites were designated as well-sampled if they had completeness indices above 80% and >200 associated DAK records. Results We identified 100 individual pixels and 20 broader ‘hotspots’ of sampling that were demonstrably well-inventoried prior to 1980. These sites are catalogued and documented to promote and enable resurvey efforts that can document events of avifaunal change (and non-change) across the country on decadal time scales. Conclusions Development of repeated surveys for many sites across Mexico, and particularly for sites for which historical surveys document their avifaunas prior to major climate change processes, would pay rich rewards in information about distributional dynamics of Mexican birds. PMID:27651986

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of WRF-CMAQ ozone ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Dynamic evaluation of the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)– Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ozone simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two decades of simulations covering the period from 1990 to 2010 is conducted to assess how well the changes in observed ozone air quality are simulated by the model. The changes induced by variations in meteorology and/or emissions are also evaluated during the same timeframe using spectral decomposition of observed and modeled ozone time series with the aim of identifying the underlying forcing mechanisms that control ozone exceedances and making informed recommendations for the optimal use of regional-scale air quality models. The evaluation is focused on the warm season's (i.e., May–September) daily maximum 8-hr (DM8HR) ozone concentrations, the 4th highest (4th) and average of top 10 DM8HR ozone values (top10), as well as the spectrally-decomposed components of the DM8HR ozone time series using the Kolmogorov-Zurbenko (KZ) filter. Results of the dynamic evaluation are presented for six regions in the U.S., consistent with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climatic regions. During the earlier 11-yr period (1990–2000), the simulated and observed trends are not statistically significant. During the more recent 2000–2010 period, all trends are statistically significant and WRF-CMAQ captures the observed trend in most regions. Given large n

Robust non-Gaussian statistics and long-range correlation of total ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toumi, R.; Syroka, J.; Barnes, C.; Lewis, P.

2001-01-01

Three long-term total ozone time series at Camborne, Lerwick and Arosa are examined for their statistical properties. Non-Gaussian behaviour is seen for all locations. There are large interannual fluctuations in the higher moments of the probability distribution. However, only the mean for all stations and summer standard deviation at Lerwick show significant trends. This suggests that there has been no long-term change in the stratospheric circulation, but there are decadal variations. The time series can be also characterised as scale invariant with a Hurst exponent of about 0.8 for all three sites. The Arosa time series was found to be weakly intermittent, in agreement with the non-Gaussian characteristics of the data set

Precipitation and temperature changes in the major Chinese river basins during 1957-2013 and links to sea surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, Qing; Prange, Matthias; Merkel, Ute

2016-05-01

The variation characteristics of precipitation and temperature in the three major Chinese river basins (Yellow River, Yangtze River and Pearl River) in the period of 1957-2013 were analyzed on an annual and seasonal basis, as well as their links to sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean on both interannual and decadal time scales. Annual mean temperature of the three river basins increased significantly overall since 1957, with an average warming rate of about 0.19 °C/10a, but the warming was characterized by a staircase form with steps around 1987 and 1998. The significant increase of annual mean temperature could mostly be attributed to the remarkable warming trend in spring, autumn and winter. Warming rates in the northern basins were generally much higher than in the southern basins. However, both the annual precipitation and seasonal mean precipitation of the three river basins showed little change in the study area average, but distinct interannual variations since 1957 and clear regional differences. An overall warming-wetting tendency was found in the northwestern and southeastern river basins in 1957-2013, while the central regions tended to become warmer and drier. Results from a Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) showed that the interannual variations of seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature over the three river basins were both associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since 1957. ENSO SST patterns affected precipitation and surface air temperature variability throughout the year, but with very different response patterns in the different seasons. For instance, temperature in most of the river basins was positively correlated with central-eastern equatorial Pacific SST in winter and spring, but negatively correlated in summer and autumn. On the decadal time scale, the seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature variations were strongly associated with the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation.

Recent breakthroughs on C-2U: Norman’s legacy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Binderbauer, M. W.; Tajima, T.; Tuszewski, M.

Conventional field-reversed configurations (FRC) face notable stability and confinement concerns, which can be ameliorated by introducing and maintaining a significant fast ion population in the system. This is the conjecture first introduced by Norman Rostoker multiple decades ago and adopted as the central design tenet in Tri Alpha Energy’s advanced beam driven FRC concept. In fact, studying the physics of such neutral beam (NB) driven FRCs over the past decade, considerable improvements were made in confinement and stability. Next to NB injection, the addition of axially streaming plasma guns, magnetic end plugs, as well as advanced surface conditioning lead tomore » dramatic reductions in turbulence driven losses and greatly improved stability. In turn, fast ion confinement improved significantly and allowed for the build-up of a dominant fast particle population. This recently led to the breakthrough of sustaining an advanced beam driven FRC, thereby demonstrating successful maintenance of trapped magnetic flux, plasma dimensions and total pressure inventory for times much longer than all characteristic system time scales and only limited by hardware and electric supply constraints.« less

Convectively driven decadal zonal accelerations in Earth's fluid core

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

More, Colin; Dumberry, Mathieu

2018-04-01

Azimuthal accelerations of cylindrical surfaces co-axial with the rotation axis have been inferred to exist in Earth's fluid core on the basis of magnetic field observations and changes in the length-of-day. These accelerations have a typical timescale of decades. However, the physical mechanism causing the accelerations is not well understood. Scaling arguments suggest that the leading order torque averaged over cylindrical surfaces should arise from the Lorentz force. Decadal fluctuations in the magnetic field inside the core, driven by convective flows, could then force decadal changes in the Lorentz torque and generate zonal accelerations. We test this hypothesis by constructing a quasi-geostrophic model of magnetoconvection, with thermally driven flows perturbing a steady, imposed background magnetic field. We show that when the Alfvén number in our model is similar to that in Earth's fluid core, temporal fluctuations in the torque balance are dominated by the Lorentz torque, with the latter generating mean zonal accelerations. Our model reproduces both fast, free Alfvén waves and slow, forced accelerations, with ratios of relative strength and relative timescale similar to those inferred for the Earth's core. The temporal changes in the magnetic field which drive the time-varying Lorentz torque are produced by the underlying convective flows, shearing and advecting the magnetic field on a timescale associated with convective eddies. Our results support the hypothesis that temporal changes in the magnetic field deep inside Earth's fluid core drive the observed decadal zonal accelerations of cylindrical surfaces through the Lorentz torque.

Managing the Nation's water in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lins, H.F.; Stakhiv, E.Z.

1998-01-01

Among the many concerns associated with global climate change, the potential effects on water resources are frequently cited as the most worrisome. In contrast, those who manage water resources do not rate climatic change among their top planning and operational concerns. The difference in these views can be associated with how water managers operate their systems and the types of stresses, and the operative time horizons, that affect the Nation's water resources infrastructure. Climate, or more precisely weather, is an important variable in the management of water resources at daily to monthly time scales because water resources systems generally are operated on a daily basis. At decadal to centennial time scales, though, climate is much less important because (1) forecasts, particularly of regional precipitation, are extremely uncertain over such time periods, and (2) the magnitude of effects due to changes in climate on water resources is small relative to changes in other variables such as population, technology, economics, and environmental regulation. Thus, water management agencies find it difficult to justify changing design features or operating rules on the basis of simulated climatic change at the present time, especially given that reservoir-design criteria incorporate considerable buffering capacity for extreme meteorological and hydrological events.

What more have we learned from thermal infrared remote sensing of active volcanoes other than they are hot? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramsey, M.

2009-12-01

Thermal infrared (TIR) remote sensing has been used for decades to detect changes in the heat output of active and reawakening volcanoes. The data from these thermally anomalous pixels are commonly used either as a monitoring tool or to calculate parameters such as effusion rate and eruptive style. First and second generation TIR data have been limited in the number of spectral channels and/or the spatial resolution. Two spectral channels with only one km spatial resolution has been the norm and therefore the number of science applications is limited to very large or very hot events. The one TIR channel of the Landsat ETM+ instrument improved the spatial resolution to 60 m, but it was not until the launch of ASTER in late 1999 that orbital TIR spectral resolution increased to five channels at 90 m per pixel. For the first time, the ability existed to capture multispectral emitted radiance from volcanic surfaces, which has allowed the extraction of emissivity as well as temperature. Over the past decade ASTER TIR emissivity data have been examined for a variety of volcanic processes including lava flow emplacement at Kilauea and Kluichevskoi, silicic lava dome composition at Sheveluch, Bezymianny and Mt. St. Helens, low temperature fumaroles emissions at Cerro Negro, and textural changes on the pyroclastic flow deposits at Merapi, Sheveluch and Bezymianny. Thermal-temporal changes at the 90 m scale are still an important monitoring tool for active volcanoes using ASTER TIR data. However, the ability to extract physical parameters such as micron-scale roughness and bulk mineralogy has added tremendously to the science derived from the TIR region. This new information has also presented complications such as the effects of sub-pixel thermal heterogeneities and amorphous glass on the emissivity spectra. If better understood, these complications can provide new insights into the physical state of the volcanic surfaces. Therefore, new data processing algorithms, laboratory, and field-based TIR instrumentation have been developed to more accurately model and correct these data. This presentation will summarize the results from nearly a decade of ASTER TIR remote sensing of active volcanoes around the globe. It will also document the first results of a micro furnace designed to capture emission of molten surfaces in real time as well as a field TIR camera modified to extract emissivity of surfaces at the cm pixel scale. The integration of laboratory, field, and orbital TIR remote sensing of active volcanoes provide a more complete picture of processes operating a variety of spatial, temporal and physical scales.

Watershed-scale response of groundwater recharge to inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in precipitation (Alberta, Canada)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayashi, Masaki; Farrow, Christopher R.

2014-12-01

Groundwater recharge sets a constraint on aquifer water balance in the context of water management. Historical data on groundwater and other relevant hydrological processes can be used to understand the effects of climatic variability on recharge, but such data sets are rare. The climate of the Canadian prairies is characterized by large inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in precipitation, which provides opportunities to examine the response of groundwater recharge to changes in meteorological conditions. A decadal study was conducted in a small (250 km2) prairie watershed in Alberta, Canada. Relative magnitude of annual recharge, indicated by water-level rise, was significantly correlated with a combination of growing-season precipitation and snowmelt runoff, which drives depression-focussed infiltration of meltwater. Annual precipitation was greater than vapour flux at an experimental site in some years and smaller in other years. On average precipitation minus vapour flux was 10 mm y-1, which was comparable to the magnitude of watershed-scale groundwater recharge estimated from creek baseflow. Average baseflow showed a distinct shift from a low value (4 mm y-1) in 1982-1995 to a high value (15 mm y-1) in 2003-2013, indicating the sensitivity of groundwater recharge to a decadal-scale variability of meteorological conditions.

Functional Topology of Evolving Urban Drainage Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Soohyun; Paik, Kyungrock; McGrath, Gavan S.; Urich, Christian; Krueger, Elisabeth; Kumar, Praveen; Rao, P. Suresh C.

2017-11-01

We investigated the scaling and topology of engineered urban drainage networks (UDNs) in two cities, and further examined UDN evolution over decades. UDN scaling was analyzed using two power law scaling characteristics widely employed for river networks: (1) Hack's law of length (L)-area (A) [L∝Ah] and (2) exceedance probability distribution of upstream contributing area (δ) [P>(A≥δ>)˜aδ-ɛ]. For the smallest UDNs (<2 km2), length-area scales linearly (h ˜ 1), but power law scaling (h ˜ 0.6) emerges as the UDNs grow. While P>(A≥δ>) plots for river networks are abruptly truncated, those for UDNs display exponential tempering [P>(A≥δ>)=aδ-ɛexp⁡>(-cδ>)]. The tempering parameter c decreases as the UDNs grow, implying that the distribution evolves in time to resemble those for river networks. However, the power law exponent ɛ for large UDNs tends to be greater than the range reported for river networks. Differences in generative processes and engineering design constraints contribute to observed differences in the evolution of UDNs and river networks, including subnet heterogeneity and nonrandom branching.

Role of Erosion in Shaping Point Bars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moody, J.; Meade, R.

2012-04-01

A powerful metaphor in fluvial geomorphology has been that depositional features such as point bars (and other floodplain features) constitute the river's historical memory in the form of uniformly thick sedimentary deposits waiting for the geomorphologist to dissect and interpret the past. For the past three decades, along the channel of Powder River (Montana USA) we have documented (with annual cross-sectional surveys and pit trenches) the evolution of the shape of three point bars that were created when an extreme flood in 1978 cut new channels across the necks of two former meander bends and radically shifted the location of a third bend. Subsequent erosion has substantially reshaped, at different time scales, the relic sediment deposits of varying age. At the weekly to monthly time scale (i.e., floods from snowmelt or floods from convective or cyclonic storms), the maximum scour depth was computed (by using a numerical model) at locations spaced 1 m apart across the entire point bar for a couple of the largest floods. The maximum predicted scour is about 0.22 m. At the annual time scale, repeated cross-section topographic surveys (25 during 32 years) indicate that net annual erosion at a single location can be as great as 0.5 m, and that the net erosion is greater than net deposition during 8, 16, and 32% of the years for the three point bars. On average, the median annual net erosion was 21, 36, and 51% of the net deposition. At the decadal time scale, an index of point bar preservation often referred to as completeness was defined for each cross section as the percentage of the initial deposit (older than 10 years) that was still remaining in 2011; computations indicate that 19, 41, and 36% of the initial deposits of sediment were eroded. Initial deposits were not uniform in thickness and often represented thicker pods of sediment connected by thin layers of sediment or even isolated pods at different elevations across the point bar in response to multiple floods during a water year. Erosion often was preferential and removed part or all of pods at lower elevations, and in time left what appears to be a random arrangement of sediment pods forming the point bar. Thus, we conclude that the erosional process is as important as the deposition process in shaping the final form of the point bar, and that point bars are not uniformly aggradational or transgressive deposits of sediment in which the age of the deposit increases monotonically downward at all locations across the point bar.

Revisiting Caveiro Lake sediment record: the Holocene NAO and AMO impact on Pico Island (Azores archipelago)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, A.; Giralt, S.; Raposeiro, P. M.; Gonçalves, V. M.; Pueyo, J. J.; Trigo, R. M.; Bao, R.; Sáez, A.

2017-12-01

Northern Hemisphere climate is partly conditioned by a number of atmospheric and oceanic patterns which occur in the North Atlantic sector. The favourable location of the Azores Archipelago (37°-40° N, 25°-31° W) results in a privileged place to generate high-resolution Holocene climatic proxy data that can contribute to deep our understanding on the evolution of these atmospheric and oceanic patterns. In the frame of three research projects, namely PALEONAO (CGL2010-15767), RAPIDNAO (CGL2013-40608-R) and PALEOMODES (CGL2016-75281-C2), high-resolution proxy-based reconstructions from Azores Archipelago have recently shown a combined impact of atmospheric and oceanic patterns at multiannual and decadal time-scales (Rubio-Inglés et al. 2016; Hernández et al. 2017). However, the long-term evolution coupling/uncoupling of these patterns is not well-determined yet. Here, we present a new high-resolution climate reconstruction based on the Caveiro Lake sedimentary sequence in order to fill this gap. Previously, Björck et al. (2006) studied a section of this sequence (the uppermost 4.6 m covering last 6 Ka cal BP) concluding that changes in the thermohaline circulation and the SST were the main drivers in the long-term precipitation variability, whereas the NAO impact was the main atmospheric driver of short-term precipitation changes. However, they only distinguished the NAO impact for the last 600 years owing to the low resolution of the study for the lower portion of the core. The new studied sequence (8.40 m long, 8.2 Ka cal BP) has been analysed at decadal-to centennial time-scale resolution for X-ray diffraction (XRD), X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning and elemental and isotope geochemistry on bulk organic matter. The statistical multivariate analysis of the data highlights the main drivers triggering the sedimentary infill of the lake would be the NAO and AMO by controlling the lacustrine productivity via nutrients input. This new high-resolution climate reconstruction from Caveiro Lake disentangles the combined influences of the NAO and AMO through the Holocene at decadal-to-centennial time scales. References Björck et al. (2006) - Quat Sci Rev 25, 9-32. Rubio-Inglés et al. (2016) - AGU fall meeting, PP51A­-2287. Hernández et al. (2017) - Glob Planet Change 154, 61-74.

UNAVCO: A Decade Supporting EarthScope - Three Decades of Supporting Geodesy for Science Innovation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, M.

2013-12-01

UNAVCO supports research that establishes Earth's reference frame, enabling mapping of the planet's shape and mass; determines changes in the distribution of ice, water resources, and sea level; characterizes processes that contribute to natural and man-made hazards; and recognizes land-use changes (including subsidence, soil moisture, and health of wetlands). UNAVCO began as an investigator cooperative in 1984 - with the goal of sharing equipment and technologies that were expensive, rapidly changing, and extraordinarily powerful. Today as NSF's National Earth Science Geodetic Facility, on the eve of our 30th anniversary, we are excited to highlight a decade of support for major components of EarthScope, especially the Plate Boundary Observatory (PBO). Innovations by UNAVCO and the UNAVCO community have supported steady advancement towards millimeter-level global geodesy. Modern space geodesy provides new observational capability for contemporary deformation and magmatism in active convergent margin systems that operate over a spectrum of temporal and spatial scales, especially the PBO. Time scales vary from seconds to millennia, and spatial scales from borehole nanostrains to the global plate circuit. High-precision strain or 3-D point observations with borehole strainmeter or Global Positioning System (GPS) observations and geodetic imaging with SAR and LiDAR are used in combination to reveal these complex systems. GPS now combines with strong ground motion accelerometer time series to provide important enhancements to conventional seismology. The resulting 3-D fully georeferenced dynamic positioning time series are free of ambiguities associated with seismometer tilt and displacement. Geodesy constrains plate kinematics for convergence rate and direction, co-seismic deformation during great and moderate earthquakes, episodic tremor and slip events and related transient deformation, tectono-magmatic interactions, and the possible triggering effects of atmospheric or geomorphic unloading. Space geodesy furthers research on earthquake and tsunami hazards, volcanic eruptions, severe weather, hurricanes, coastal subsidence, wetlands health, soil moisture, groundwater distribution, and space weather. Of particular importance are contributions to the understanding of processes related to global warming and climate change, including sea level rise and dynamic changes in glaciers and large polar ice sheets. The discoveries of virtually every global geodesy study are supported - directly or indirectly - by some aspect of UNAVCO's work. Beyond research, a large international community of surveyors and civil engineers access UNAVCO data streams, software, and on-line resources daily. In a global society that is increasingly technology-dependent, consistently risk-averse, and often natural resource-limited, communities need geodetic research, education, and infrastructure to make informed decisions about living on a dynamic planet.

Will growing forests make the global warming problem better or worse?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldeira, K.; Gibbard, S.; Bala, G.; Wickett, M. E.; Phillips, T. J.

2005-12-01

Carbon storage in forests has been promoted as a means to slow global warming. However, forests affect climate not only through the carbon cycle; forests also affect both the absorption of solar radiation and evapotranspiration. Previously, it has been shown that boreal forests have the potential to warm the planet, offsetting the benefits of carbon storage in boreal forests (Betts, Nature 408, 187-190, 2000). Here, we show that direct climate effects of forest growth in mid-latitudes also have the potential to offset benefits of carbon storage. This suggests that mid-latitude afforestation projects must be evaluated very carefully, taking direct climate effects into account. In contrast, low-latitude tropical forests appear to cool the planet both by storing carbon and by increasing evapotranspiration; thus, slowing or reversing tropical deforestation is a win/win strategy from both carbon storage and direct climate perspectives. Evaluation of costs and benefits of afforestation depends on the time scales under consideration. On the shortest time scale, each unit of CO2 taken up by a plant is removed from the atmosphere. However, over centuries most of this CO2 taken up from the atmosphere by plants is replaced by outgassing from the ocean. On the longest time scales, atmospheric carbon dioxide content is controlled by the carbonate-silicate cycle, so the amount of carbon stored in a forest is not relevant to long-term climate change. While atmospheric CO2 impacts of afforestation diminish over time, the direct effects on climate (and silicate weathering) persist, so these effects become more important as the time scale of concern lengthens. In some cases, afforestation is predicted to lead to cooling on the time scale of decades followed by warming on the time scale of centuries. Our study involves simulations using the NCAR CAM3 atmospheric general circulation model with a slab ocean to perform idealized (and extreme) land-cover change simulations. We explore the time-dependent carbon-cycle/climate implications of these results using a schematic model of the long-term carbon cycle and climate.

Interdecadal variability of El Niño onset and its impact on monsoon systems over areas encircling the Pacific Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Jiaxi; Xu, Jianjun; Guan, Zhaoyong; Powell, Alfred M.

2016-10-01

Based on previous study by Xu and Chan (J Clim 14:418-433, 2001), two types of El Niño distinguished by the onset time, a Spring (SP) type and a Summer (SU) type, have been investigated from 1871 through 2011. As can be classified by the spatial patterns of sea surface temperature anomaly into the Warm Pool (WP) and Cold Tongue (CT) El Niño, the temporal features of the CT are dominated by the SP events whereas the SU events mostly display the spatial pattern of WP or Mixed events. The approximate 140-year data analysis shows that the frequency of SP events tends to increase in the most recent 30 years (1980-2009) while the SU events show very strong activity in the beginning of the twentieth century (1900-1929), which are closely associated with the decadal changes in oceanic and atmospheric background conditions. The air-sea processes indicate that the pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between tropical and extratropical Pacific Ocean on decadal time scales is related to the sea level pressure distribution, which tends to produce wind anomalies. The wind anomalies in turn affect the SST anomalies on inter-annual time scales over the equatorial areas and finally result in the early onset of El Niño in SP time or late onset of El Nino in SU time. A spring onset El Niño favors a Kelvin wave that propagates across the basin and a summer onset favors a Kelvin wave that does not traverse the basin or the related effects are not strong enough. The early or late onset of El Niño significantly impacts the precipitation distribution correlated with the monsoon systems including the Asian-Australian monsoon and North-South American monsoon. The El Niño-monsoon relationship is modulated by decadal changes in atmospheric and oceanic background conditions. The precipitation in the monsoonal area circling the Pacific Ocean exhibits characteristic quasi-biennial variations that are closely associated with the onset time of El Niño events, especially with the early onset of El Niño. For the Spring (SP) type, drought is observed over the central China, Australia, southwestern North America and northern South America in boreal summer, but the opposite pattern appears in the subsequent summer of the following year.

Prediction of mean monthly river discharges in Colombia through Empirical Mode Decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carmona, A. M.; Poveda, G.

2015-04-01

The hydro-climatology of Colombia exhibits strong natural variability at a broad range of time scales including: inter-decadal, decadal, inter-annual, annual, intra-annual, intra-seasonal, and diurnal. Diverse applied sectors rely on quantitative predictions of river discharges for operational purposes including hydropower generation, agriculture, human health, fluvial navigation, territorial planning and management, risk preparedness and mitigation, among others. Various methodologies have been used to predict monthly mean river discharges that are based on "Predictive Analytics", an area of statistical analysis that studies the extraction of information from historical data to infer future trends and patterns. Our study couples the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) with traditional methods, e.g. Autoregressive Model of Order 1 (AR1) and Neural Networks (NN), to predict mean monthly river discharges in Colombia, South America. The EMD allows us to decompose the historical time series of river discharges into a finite number of intrinsic mode functions (IMF) that capture the different oscillatory modes of different frequencies associated with the inherent time scales coexisting simultaneously in the signal (Huang et al. 1998, Huang and Wu 2008, Rao and Hsu, 2008). Our predictive method states that it is easier and simpler to predict each IMF at a time and then add them up together to obtain the predicted river discharge for a certain month, than predicting the full signal. This method is applied to 10 series of monthly mean river discharges in Colombia, using calibration periods of more than 25 years, and validation periods of about 12 years. Predictions are performed for time horizons spanning from 1 to 12 months. Our results show that predictions obtained through the traditional methods improve when the EMD is used as a previous step, since errors decrease by up to 13% when the AR1 model is used, and by up to 18% when using Neural Networks is combined with the EMD.

Numerical Modeling of the Hydrothermal System at East Pacific Rise 9°50'N Including Anhydrite Precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolandaivelu, K. P.; Lowell, R. P.

2015-12-01

To better understand the effects of anhydrite precipitation on mid-ocean ridge hydrothermal systems, we conducted 2-D numerical simulations of two-phase hydrothermal circulation in a NaCl-H2O fluid at the East Pacific Rise 9°50'N. The simulations were constrained by key observational thermal data and seismicity that suggests the fluid flow is primarily along axis with recharge focused into a small zone near a 4th order discontinuity. The simulations considered an open-top square box with a fixed seafloor pressure of 25 MPa, and nominal seafloor temperature of 10 °C. The sides of the box were assumed to be impermeable and insulated. We considered two models: a homogeneous model with a permeability of 10-13 m2 and a heterogeneous model in which layer 2A extrusives were given a higher permeability. Both models had a fixed bottom temperature distribution and initial porosity of 0.1. Assuming that anhydrite precipitation resulted from the decrease in solubility with increasing temperature as downwelling fluid gets heated, we calculated the rate of porosity decrease and sealing times in each cell at certain time snapshots in the simulations. The results showed that sealing would occur most rapidly in limited regions near the base of the high-temperature plumes, where complete sealing could occur on decadal time scales. Though more detailed analysis is needed, it appeared that the areas of rapid sealing would likely have negligible impact on the overall circulation pattern and hydrothermal vent temperatures. The simulations also indicated that sealing due to anhydrite precipitation would occur more slowly at the margins of the ascending plumes. The sealing times in the deep recharge zone determined in these simulations were considerably greater than estimated from 1D analytical calculations, suggesting that with a 2D model, focused recharge at the EPR 9°50'N site may occur, at least on a decadal time scale.

Comparison of environmental forcings affecting suspended sediments variability in two macrotidal, highly-turbid estuaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jalón-Rojas, Isabel; Schmidt, Sabine; Sottolichio, Aldo

2017-11-01

The relative contribution of environmental forcing frequencies on turbidity variability is, for the first time, quantified at seasonal and multiannual time scales in tidal estuarine systems. With a decade of high-frequency, multi-site turbidity monitoring, the two nearby, macrotidal and highly-turbid Gironde and Loire estuaries (west France) are excellent natural laboratories for this purpose. Singular Spectrum Analyses, combined with Lomb-Scargle periodograms and Wavelet Transforms, were applied to the continuous multiannual turbidity time series. Frequencies of the main environmental factors affecting turbidity were identified: hydrological regime (high versus low river discharges), river flow variability, tidal range, tidal cycles, and turbulence. Their relative influences show similar patterns in both estuaries and depend on the estuarine region (lower or upper estuary) and the time scale (multiannual or seasonal). On the multiannual time scale, the relative contribution of tidal frequencies (tidal cycles and range) to turbidity variability decreases up-estuary from 68% to 47%, while the influence of river flow frequencies increases from 3% to 42%. On the seasonal time scale, the relative influence of forcings frequencies remains almost constant in the lower estuary, dominated by tidal frequencies (60% and 30% for tidal cycles and tidal range, respectively); in the upper reaches, it is variable depending on hydrological regime, even if tidal frequencies are responsible for up 50% of turbidity variance. These quantifications show the potential of combined spectral analyses to compare the behavior of suspended sediment in tidal estuaries throughout the world and to evaluate long-term changes in environmental forcings, especially in a context of global change. The relevance of this approach to compare nearby and overseas systems and to support management strategies is discussed (e.g., selection of effective operation frequencies/regions, prediction of the most affected regions by the implementation of operational management plans).

Three decades of monitoring in the Rio Cordon instrumented basin: Sediment budget and temporal trend of sediment yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rainato, R.; Mao, L.; García-Rama, A.; Picco, L.; Cesca, M.; Vianello, A.; Preciso, E.; Scussel, G. R.; Lenzi, M. A.

2017-08-01

This paper investigates nearly 30 years of monitoring of sediment fluxes in an instrumented Alpine basin (Rio Cordon, Italy). The collected bedload and suspended sediment transport data allows sediment dynamics to be analyzed at different time scales, ranging from short- (single event) to long-term (three decades). The Rio Cordon monitoring station has been operating since 1986, continuously recording water discharge, bedload and suspended load. At the flood event scale, a good relationship was found between peak discharges (Qpeak) and sediment load (bedload and suspended load). The inter-annual sediment yields were analyzed, also assessing the contribution of the single floods to the total sediment budget. The annual suspended load ranges from 10 to 2524 t yr- 1, while the bedload varies from 0 to 1543 t yr- 1. The higher annual yields were recorded in the years when large floods occurred, highlighting that the sediment budget in the Rio Cordon is strongly controlled by the occurrence of high magnitude events. Investigation of the seasonal suspended load contribution demonstrated that from 1986 to 1993 most fine sediments were transported during the snowmelt/summer seasons, while autumn and snowmelt were the dominant seasons contributing to sediment yield in the periods 1994-2002 and 2003-2014, respectively. The mean annual sediment yield from 1986 to 2014 is equal to 103 t km- 2 yr- 1, and overall, bedload accounts for 21% of the total sediment yield. The ratio between the sediment transport and the effective runoff of the events allowed the temporal trends of transport efficiency to be inferred, highlighting the existence of periods characterized by different sediment availability. In particular, despite no significant changes in the hydrological variables (i.e. rainfall), nearly a decade (1994-2002) with high transport efficiency appears to have occurred after an exceptional event (recurrence interval > 100 years). This event affected the sediment availability at the basin and channel bed scales, and provided a legacy influencing the sediment dynamics in the basin over the long-term by increasing the transport efficiency for approximately a decade. This work benefits from the long-lasting monitoring program undertaken in the Rio Cordon and is the product of long-term data series. The quasi-unique dataset has provided detailed evidence of sediment dynamics over about three decades in a small Alpine basin, also enabling the effects triggered by an exceptional event to be analyzed.

Observations of changes in the dissolved CO2 system in the North Sea, in four summers of the 2001-2011 decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clargo, Nicola; Salt, Lesley; Thomas, Helmuth; de Baar, Hein

2015-04-01

Since the industrial revolution, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) have risen dramatically, largely due to the combustion of fossil fuels, changes in land-use patterns and the production of cement. The oceans have absorbed a large amount of this CO2, with resulting impacts on ocean chemistry. Coastal seas play a significant role in the mitigation of anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 as they contribute approximately 10-30% of global primary productivity despite accounting for only 7% of the surface area. The North Sea is a perfect natural laboratory in which to study the CO2 system as it consists of two biogeochemically distinct regions displaying both oceanic and relatively coastal behaviour. It has also been identified as a continental shelf pump with respect to CO2, transporting it to the deeper waters of the North Atlantic. Large scale forcing has been shown to have a significant impact on the CO2 system over varying time scales, often masking the effects of anthropogenic influence. Here, we present data from the North Sea spanning the 2001-2011 decade. In order to investigate the dynamics of the dissolved CO2 system in this region in the face of climate change, four basin-wide cruises were conducted during the summers of 2001, 2005, 2008 and 2011. The acquired Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC) and alkalinity data were then used to fully resolve the carbon system in order to assess trends over the 2001-2011 decade. We find significant interannual variability, but with a consistent, notable trend in decreasing pH. We found that surface alkalinity remained relatively constant over the decade, whereas DIC increased, indicating that the pH decline is DIC-driven. We also found that the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) increased faster than concurrent atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and that the CO2 buffering capacity of the North Sea decreased over the decade, with implications for future CO2 uptake.

Final Technical Report for DOE Award SC0006616

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robertson, Andrew

2015-08-01

This report summarizes research carried out by the project "Collaborative Research, Type 1: Decadal Prediction and Stochastic Simulation of Hydroclimate Over Monsoonal Asia. This collaborative project brought together climate dynamicists (UCLA, IRI), dendroclimatologists (LDEO Tree Ring Laboratory), computer scientists (UCI), and hydrologists (Columbia Water Center, CWC), together with applied scientists in climate risk management (IRI) to create new scientific approaches to quantify and exploit the role of climate variability and change in the growing water crisis across southern and eastern Asia. This project developed new tree-ring based streamflow reconstructions for rivers in monsoonal Asia; improved understanding of hydrologic spatio-temporal modesmore » of variability over monsoonal Asia on interannual-to-centennial time scales; assessed decadal predictability of hydrologic spatio-temporal modes; developed stochastic simulation tools for creating downscaled future climate scenarios based on historical/proxy data and GCM climate change; and developed stochastic reservoir simulation and optimization for scheduling hydropower, irrigation and navigation releases.« less

Observing the Anthropocene from Space: Challenges and Needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burrows, John

2016-07-01

The rapid growth of human population since the industrial revolution has been coupled with a much increased standard of living and bountiful production of food. The dominant energy source sustaining this development has been fossil fuel combustion. However this has resulted in pollution which now spans all scales. There have significant impacts on air quality, water quality, stratospheric ozone and climate. The impacts can sudden and large and also slowly accumulate over time in the long term. The first decades of the space age resulted in pioneering efforts to establish adequate measurement capability. This process is continuing to evolve. Over the past two decades there have been a number of efforts to define the contribution and needs for a space segment which can separate anthropogenic form natural changes in the earth system. This talk introduces this topic of the use of the space segment to deconvolve change from anthropogenic activity and natural phenomena.

A Model Assessment of Satellite Observed Trends in Polar Sea Ice Extents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vinnikov, Konstantin Y.; Cavalieri, Donald J.; Parkinson, Claire L.

2005-01-01

For more than three decades now, satellite passive microwave observations have been used to monitor polar sea ice. Here we utilize sea ice extent trends determined from primarily satellite data for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres for the period 1972(73)-2004 and compare them with results from simulations by eleven climate models. In the Northern Hemisphere, observations show a statistically significant decrease of sea ice extent and an acceleration of sea ice retreat during the past three decades. However, from the modeled natural variability of sea ice extents in control simulations, we conclude that the acceleration is not statistically significant and should not be extrapolated into the future. Observations and model simulations show that the time scale of climate variability in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere is much larger than in the Northern Hemisphere and that the Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent trends are not statistically significant.

Exploring the Earth's crust: history and results of controlled-source seismology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prodehl, Claus; Mooney, Walter D.

2012-01-01

This volume contains a comprehensive, worldwide history of seismological studies of the Earth’s crust using controlled sources from 1850 to 2005. Essentially all major seismic projects on land and the most important oceanic projects are covered. The time period 1850 to 1939 is presented as a general synthesis, and from 1940 onward the history and results are presented in separate chapters for each decade, with the material organized by geographical region. Each chapter highlights the major advances achieved during that decade in terms of data acquisition, processing technology, and interpretation methods. For all major seismic projects, the authors provide specific details on field observations, interpreted crustal cross sections, and key references. They conclude with global and continental-scale maps of all field measurements and interpreted Moho contours. An accompanying DVD contains important out-of-print publications and an extensive collection of controlled-source data, location maps, and crustal cross sections.

Revealing climate modes in steric sea levels: lessons learned from satellite geodesy, objective analyses and ocean reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfeffer, J.; Tregoning, P.; Purcell, A. P.

2017-12-01

Due to increased greenhouse gases emissions, the oceans are accumulating heat. In response to the ocean circulation and atmospheric forcing, the heat is irregularly redistributed within the oceans, causing sea level to rise at variable rates in space and time. These rates of steric expansion are extremely difficult to assess because of the sparsity of in-situ hydrographic observations available within the course of the 20th century. We compare here three methods to reconstruct the steric sea levels over the past 13, 25 and 58 years based on satellite geodesy, objective analyses and ocean reanalyses. The interannual to decadal variability of each dataset is explored with a model merging six climate indices representative of the natural variability of the ocean and climate system. Consistent regional patterns are identified for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in all datasets at all timescales. Despite the short time coverage (13 years), the combination of satellite geodetic data (altimetry and GRACE) also reveals significant steric responses to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Indian Dipole (IOD) and Indian ocean basinwide (IOBM) mode. The richer information content in the ocean reanalyses allows us to recover the regional fingerprints of the PDO, ENSO, NPGO, IOD and IOBM, but also of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) acting over longer time scales (40 to 60 years). Therefore, ocean reanalyses, coupled with climate mode analyses, constitute innovative and promising tools to investigate the mechanisms triggering the variability of sea level rise over the past decades.

Population-level consequences of herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics on a long-lived invasive shrub.

PubMed

van Klinken, R D; Pichancourt, J B

2015-12-01

Long-lived plant species are highly valued environmentally, economically, and socially, but can also cause substantial harm as invaders. Realistic demographic predictions can guide management decisions, and are particularly valuable for long-lived species where population response times can be long. Long-lived species are also challenging, given population dynamics can be affected by factors as diverse as herbivory, climate, and dispersal. We developed a matrix model to evaluate the effects of herbivory by a leaf-feeding biological control agent released in Australia against a long-lived invasive shrub (mesquite, Leguminoseae: Prosopis spp.). The stage-structured, density-dependent model used an annual time step and 10 climatically diverse years of field data. Mesquite population demography is sensitive to source-sink dynamics as most seeds are consumed and redistributed spatially by livestock. In addition, individual mesquite plants, because they are long lived, experience natural climate variation that cycles over decadal scales, as well as anthropogenic climate change. The model therefore explicitly considered the effects of both net dispersal and climate variation. Herbivory strongly regulated mesquite populations through reduced growth and fertility, but additional mortality of older plants will be required to reach management goals within a reasonable time frame. Growth and survival of seeds and seedlings were correlated with daily soil moisture. As a result, population dynamics were sensitive to rainfall scenario, but population response times were typically slow (20-800 years to reach equilibrium or extinction) due to adult longevity. Equilibrium population densities were expected to remain 5% higher, and be more dynamic, if historical multi-decadal climate patterns persist, the effect being dampened by herbivory suppressing seed production irrespective of preceding rainfall. Dense infestations were unlikely to form under a drier climate, and required net dispersal under the current climate. Seed input wasn't required to form dense infestations under a wetter climate. Each factor we considered (ongoing herbivory, changing climate, and source-sink dynamics) has a strong bearing on how this invasive species should be managed, highlighting the need for considering both ecological context (in this case, source-sink dynamics) and the effect of climate variability at relevant temporal scales (daily, multi-decadal, and anthropogenic) when deriving management recommendations for long-lived species.

Final Report, University of California Merced: Uranium and strontium fate in waste-weathered sediments: Scaling of molecular processes to predict reactive transport

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chorover, Jon; Mueller, Karl; O'Day, Peggy Anne

2016-06-30

Objectives of the Project: 1. Determine the process coupling that occurs between mineral transformation and contaminant (U and Sr) speciation in acid-uranium waste weathered Hanford sediments. 2. Establish linkages between molecular-scale contaminant speciation and meso-scale contaminant lability, release and reactive transport. 3. Make conjunctive use of molecular- to bench-scale data to constrain the development of a mechanistic, reactive transport model that includes coupling of contaminant sorption-desorption and mineral transformation reactions. Hypotheses Tested: Uranium and strontium speciation in legacy sediments from the U-8 and U-12 Crib sites can be reproduced in bench-scale weathering experiments conducted on unimpacted Hanford sediments from themore » same formations; Reactive transport modeling of future uranium and strontium releases from the vadose zone of acid-waste weathered sediments can be effectively constrained by combining molecular-scale information on contaminant bonding environment with grain-scale information on contaminant phase partitioning, and meso-scale kinetic data on contaminant release from the waste-weathered porous media; Although field contamination and laboratory experiments differ in their diagenetic time scales (decades for field vs. months to years for lab), sediment dissolution, neophase nucleation, and crystal growth reactions that occur during the initial disequilibrium induced by waste-sediment interaction leave a strong imprint that persists over subsequent longer-term equilibration time scales and, therefore, give rise to long-term memory effects. Enabling Capabilities Developed: Our team developed an iterative measure-model approach that is broadly applicable to elucidate the mechanistic underpinnings of reactive contaminant transport in geomedia subject to active weathering.« less

Two-decade reconstruction of algal blooms in China's Lake Taihu.

PubMed

Duan, Hongtao; Ma, Ronghua; Xu, Xiaofeng; Kong, Fanxiang; Zhang, Shouxuan; Kong, Weijuan; Hao, Jingyan; Shang, Linlin

2009-05-15

The algal blooming in the inland lakes has become a critically important issue for its impacts not only on local natural and social environments, but also on global human community. However, the occurrences of blooming on larger spatial scale and longer time scale have rarely been studied. As the third largest freshwater lake in China, Lake Taihu has drawn increasing attention from both public and scientific communities concerning its degradation. Using available satellite images, we reconstructed the spatial and temporal patterns of algal blooms in Lake Taihu through the pasttwo decades. The blooming characteristics over the past two decades were examined with the dynamic of initial blooming date being highlighted. The initial blooming dates were gradually becoming later and later from 1987 to 1997. Since 1998, however, the initial blooming date came earlier and earlier year by year, with approximately 11.42 days advancement per year. From 1987 to 2007, the annual duration of algal blooms lengthened year by year, in line with the substantial increases in the occurrences of algal blooms in spring and summer months. The algal blooms usually occur in northern bays and spread to center and south parts of Lake Taihu. The increases in previous winter's mean daily minimum temperature partially contributed to the earlier blooming onset. However, human activities, expressed as total gross domestic product (GDP) and population, outweighed the climatic contribution on the initial blooming date and blooming duration. This study may provide insights for the policy makers who try to curb the algal blooming and improve the water quality of inland freshwater lakes.

A new, high-resolution global mass coral bleaching database

PubMed Central

Rickbeil, Gregory J. M.; Heron, Scott F.

2017-01-01

Episodes of mass coral bleaching have been reported in recent decades and have raised concerns about the future of coral reefs on a warming planet. Despite the efforts to enhance and coordinate coral reef monitoring within and across countries, our knowledge of the geographic extent of mass coral bleaching over the past few decades is incomplete. Existing databases, like ReefBase, are limited by the voluntary nature of contributions, geographical biases in data collection, and the variations in the spatial scale of bleaching reports. In this study, we have developed the first-ever gridded, global-scale historical coral bleaching database. First, we conducted a targeted search for bleaching reports not included in ReefBase by personally contacting scientists and divers conducting monitoring in under-reported locations and by extracting data from the literature. This search increased the number of observed bleaching reports by 79%, from 4146 to 7429. Second, we employed spatial interpolation techniques to develop annual 0.04° × 0.04° latitude-longitude global maps of the probability that bleaching occurred for 1985 through 2010. Initial results indicate that the area of coral reefs with a more likely than not (>50%) or likely (>66%) probability of bleaching was eight times higher in the second half of the assessed time period, after the 1997/1998 El Niño. The results also indicate that annual maximum Degree Heating Weeks, a measure of thermal stress, for coral reefs with a high probability of bleaching increased over time. The database will help the scientific community more accurately assess the change in the frequency of mass coral bleaching events, validate methods of predicting mass coral bleaching, and test whether coral reefs are adjusting to rising ocean temperatures. PMID:28445534

A new, high-resolution global mass coral bleaching database.

PubMed

Donner, Simon D; Rickbeil, Gregory J M; Heron, Scott F

2017-01-01

Episodes of mass coral bleaching have been reported in recent decades and have raised concerns about the future of coral reefs on a warming planet. Despite the efforts to enhance and coordinate coral reef monitoring within and across countries, our knowledge of the geographic extent of mass coral bleaching over the past few decades is incomplete. Existing databases, like ReefBase, are limited by the voluntary nature of contributions, geographical biases in data collection, and the variations in the spatial scale of bleaching reports. In this study, we have developed the first-ever gridded, global-scale historical coral bleaching database. First, we conducted a targeted search for bleaching reports not included in ReefBase by personally contacting scientists and divers conducting monitoring in under-reported locations and by extracting data from the literature. This search increased the number of observed bleaching reports by 79%, from 4146 to 7429. Second, we employed spatial interpolation techniques to develop annual 0.04° × 0.04° latitude-longitude global maps of the probability that bleaching occurred for 1985 through 2010. Initial results indicate that the area of coral reefs with a more likely than not (>50%) or likely (>66%) probability of bleaching was eight times higher in the second half of the assessed time period, after the 1997/1998 El Niño. The results also indicate that annual maximum Degree Heating Weeks, a measure of thermal stress, for coral reefs with a high probability of bleaching increased over time. The database will help the scientific community more accurately assess the change in the frequency of mass coral bleaching events, validate methods of predicting mass coral bleaching, and test whether coral reefs are adjusting to rising ocean temperatures.

Climate Local Information over the Mediterranean to Respond User Needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruti, P.

2012-12-01

CLIM-RUN aims at developing a protocol for applying new methodologies and improved modeling and downscaling tools for the provision of adequate climate information at regional to local scale that is relevant to and usable by different sectors of society (policymakers, industry, cities, etc.). Differently from current approaches, CLIM-RUN will develop a bottom-up protocol directly involving stakeholders early in the process with the aim of identifying well defined needs at the regional to local scale. The improved modeling and downscaling tools will then be used to optimally respond to these specific needs. The protocol is assessed by application to relevant case studies involving interdependent sectors, primarily tourism and energy, and natural hazards (wild fires) for representative target areas (mountainous regions, coastal areas, islands). The region of interest for the project is the Greater Mediterranean area, which is particularly important for two reasons. First, the Mediterranean is a recognized climate change hot-spot, i.e. a region particularly sensitive and vulnerable to global warming. Second, while a number of countries in Central and Northern Europe have already in place well developed climate service networks (e.g. the United Kingdom and Germany), no such network is available in the Mediterranean. CLIM-RUN is thus also intended to provide the seed for the formation of a Mediterranean basin-side climate service network which would eventually converge into a pan-European network. The general time horizon of interest for the project is the future period 2010-2050, a time horizon that encompasses the contributions of both inter-decadal variability and greenhouse-forced climate change. In particular, this time horizon places CLIM-RUN within the context of a new emerging area of research, that of decadal prediction, which will provide a strong potential for novel research.

Characterization of the time-dependent strain field at seismogenic depths using first-motion focal mechanisms: Observations of large-scale decadal variations in stress along the San Andrea fault system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sipkin, S.A.; Silver, P.G.

2003-01-01

We present a method for summing moment tensors derived from first-motion focal mechanisms to study temporal dependence in features of the subsurface regional strain field. Time-dependent processes are inferred by comparing mechanisms summed over differing time periods. We apply this methodology to seismogenic zones in central and southern California using focal mechanisms produced by the Northern and Southern California Seismograph Networks for events during 1980-1999. We find a consistent pattern in both the style of deformation (strike-slip versus compressional) and seismicity rate across the entire region. If these temporal variations are causally related, it suggests a temporal change in the regional-scale stress field. One change consistent with the observations is a rotation in the regional maximum horizontal compressive stress direction, followed by a reversal to the original direction. Depending upon the dominant style of deformation locally, this change in orientation of the regional stress will tend to either enhance or hinder deformation. The mode of enhanced deformation can range from increased microseismicity and creep to major earthquakes. We hypothesize that these temporal changes in the regional stress field are the result of subtle changes in apparent relative plate motion between the Pacific and North American plates, perhaps due to long-range postseismic stress diffusion. Others have hypothesized that small changes in plate motion over thousands of years, and/or over decades, are responsible for changes in the style of deformation in southern California. We propose that such changes, over the course of just a few years, also affect the style of deformation.

Rapid changes and long-term cycles in the benthic megafaunal community observed over 24 years in the abyssal northeast Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuhnz, Linda A.; Ruhl, Henry A.; Huffard, Christine L.; Smith, Kenneth L.

2014-05-01

The abyssal seafloor community in the NE Pacific (Station M, ∼4000 m depth) was studied between 2006 and 2012 using remotely operated vehicles (ROVs) as part of a continuing 24-year time-series study. New patterns continue to emerge showing that the deep-sea can be dynamic on short time scales, rather than static over long periods. In just over 2 years the community shifted from a sessile, suspension-feeding, sponge-dominated community to a mobile, detritus-feeding, sea cucumber-dominated assemblage. In 2006 megafaunal diversity (Simpson’s Diversity Index, SDI) was high, yet the community was depauperate in terms of density compared to later periods. Over an 18-month period beginning in spring 2011, the densities of mobile organisms increased by nearly an order of magnitude while diversity decreased below 2006 levels. In late 2012 four sea cucumbers (two Peniagone spp., Elpidia sp. A, and Scotoplanes globosa) were at the highest densities recorded since investigations began at Station M in 1989. For a group of 10 echinoderms investigated over the entire study period, we saw evidence of a long-term cycle spanning 2 decades. These changes can be tied to a variable food supply originating in shallow water. Large variations over decadal-scales indicate that remote abyssal communities are dynamic and likely subject to impacts from anthropogenic changes like ocean warming, acidification, and pollution manifested in the upper ocean. The degree of dynamism indicates that one-time or short-term investigations are not sufficient for assessing biological community structure in conservation or exploitation studies in the deep sea.

A decadal glimpse on climate and burn severity influences on ponderosa pine post-fire recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newingham, B. A.; Hudak, A. T.; Bright, B. C.; Smith, A.; Khalyani, A. H.

2016-12-01

Climate change is predicted to affect plants at the margins of their distribution. Thus, ecosystem recovery after fire is likely to vary with climate and may be slowest in drier and hotter areas. However, fire regime characteristics, including burn severity, may also affect vegetation recovery. We assessed vegetation recovery one and 9-15 years post-fire in North American ponderosa pine ecosystems distributed across climate and burn severity gradients. Using climate predictors derived from downscaled 1993-2011 climate normals, we predicted vegetation recovery as indicated by Normalized Burn Ratio derived from 1984-2012 Landsat time series imagery. Additionally, we collected field vegetation measurements to examine local topographic controls on burn severity and post-fire vegetation recovery. At a regional scale, we hypothesized a positive relationship between precipitation and recovery time and a negative relationship between temperature and recovery time. At the local scale, we hypothesized southern aspects to recovery slower than northern aspects. We also predicted higher burn severity to slow recovery. Field data found attenuated ponderosa pine recovery in hotter and drier regions across all burn severity classes. We concluded that downscaled climate data and Landsat imagery collected at commensurate scales may provide insight into climate effects on post-fire vegetation recovery relevant to ponderosa pine forest managers.

Solar Spectral Irradiance Reconstruction over 9 Millennia from a Composite 14C and 10Be Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, C. J.; Usoskin, I. G.; Krivova, N.; Kovaltsov, G.; Solanki, S. K.

2017-12-01

The Sun is the main external energy source to the Earth and thus the knowledge of solar variability on different time scales is important for understanding the solar influence on the terrestrial atmosphere and climate. The overall energy input and its spectral distribution are described by the total (TSI) and spectral (SSI) solar irradiance, respectively. Direct measurements of the solar irradiance provide information on solar variability on the decadal and shorter time scales, while the sunspot number record covers four centuries. On yet longer time scales only indirect proxies can be used, such as the concentrations of the cosmogenic isotopes 10Be and 14C in terrestrial archives. These isotopes are produced in the terrestrial atmosphere by impinging cosmic rays, whose flux is modulated by solar activity. Therefore the isotope data retrieved from various natural archives around the globe show a very high degree of similarity reflecting changes in the solar activity. Nevertheless, significant short-term deviations can be observed due to the different geochemical production processes and local climatic conditions. We will present the newest TSI/SSI reconstruction over the last 9000 years based on a new consistent composite multi-isotope proxy series. The solar irradiance reconstruction reveals the global and robust pattern of solar variability in the past.

The Change in Oceanic O2 Inventory Associated with Recent Global Warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keeling, Ralph; Garcia, Hernan

2002-01-01

Oceans general circulation models predict that global warming may cause a decrease in the oceanic O2 inventory and an associated O2 outgassing. An independent argument is presented here in support of this prediction based on observational evidence of the ocean's biogeochemical response to natural warming. On time scales from seasonal to centennial, natural O2 flux/heat flux ratios are shown to occur in a range of 2 to 10 nmol O2 per Joule of warming, with larger ratios typically occurring at higher latitudes and over longer time scales. The ratios are several times larger than would be expected solely from the effect of heating on the O2 solubility, indicating that most of the O2 exchange is biologically mediated through links between heating and stratification. The change in oceanic O2 inventory through the 1990's is estimated to be 0.3 - 0.4 x 10(exp 14) mol O2 per year based on scaling the observed anomalous long-term ocean warming by natural O2 flux/heating ratios and allowing for uncertainty due to decadal variability. Implications are discussed for carbon budgets based on observed changes in atmospheric O2/N2 ratio and based on observed changes in ocean dissolved inorganic carbon.

Long-Term Changes in the Distributions of Larval and Adult Fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem.

PubMed

Walsh, Harvey J; Richardson, David E; Marancik, Katrin E; Hare, Jonathan A

2015-01-01

Many studies have documented long-term changes in adult marine fish distributions and linked these changes to climate change and multi-decadal climate variability. Most marine fish, however, have complex life histories with morphologically distinct stages, which use different habitats. Shifts in distribution of one stage may affect the connectivity between life stages and thereby impact population processes including spawning and recruitment. Specifically, many marine fish species have a planktonic larval stage, which lasts from weeks to months. We compared the spatial distribution and seasonal occurrence of larval fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem to test whether spatial and temporal distributions changed between two decades. Two large-scale ichthyoplankton programs sampled using similar methods and spatial domain each decade. Adult distributions from a long-term bottom trawl survey over the same time period and spatial area were also analyzed using the same analytical framework to compare changes in larval and adult distributions between the two decades. Changes in spatial distribution of larvae occurred for 43% of taxa, with shifts predominately northward (i.e., along-shelf). Timing of larval occurrence shifted for 49% of the larval taxa, with shifts evenly split between occurring earlier and later in the season. Where both larvae and adults of the same species were analyzed, 48% exhibited different shifts between larval and adult stages. Overall, these results demonstrate that larval fish distributions are changing in the ecosystem. The spatial changes are largely consistent with expectations from a changing climate. The temporal changes are more complex, indicating we need a better understanding of reproductive timing of fishes in the ecosystem. These changes may impact population productivity through changes in life history connectivity and recruitment, and add to the accumulating evidence for changes in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem with potential to impact fisheries and other ecosystem services.

Long-Term Changes in the Distributions of Larval and Adult Fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Many studies have documented long-term changes in adult marine fish distributions and linked these changes to climate change and multi-decadal climate variability. Most marine fish, however, have complex life histories with morphologically distinct stages, which use different habitats. Shifts in distribution of one stage may affect the connectivity between life stages and thereby impact population processes including spawning and recruitment. Specifically, many marine fish species have a planktonic larval stage, which lasts from weeks to months. We compared the spatial distribution and seasonal occurrence of larval fish in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem to test whether spatial and temporal distributions changed between two decades. Two large-scale ichthyoplankton programs sampled using similar methods and spatial domain each decade. Adult distributions from a long-term bottom trawl survey over the same time period and spatial area were also analyzed using the same analytical framework to compare changes in larval and adult distributions between the two decades. Changes in spatial distribution of larvae occurred for 43% of taxa, with shifts predominately northward (i.e., along-shelf). Timing of larval occurrence shifted for 49% of the larval taxa, with shifts evenly split between occurring earlier and later in the season. Where both larvae and adults of the same species were analyzed, 48% exhibited different shifts between larval and adult stages. Overall, these results demonstrate that larval fish distributions are changing in the ecosystem. The spatial changes are largely consistent with expectations from a changing climate. The temporal changes are more complex, indicating we need a better understanding of reproductive timing of fishes in the ecosystem. These changes may impact population productivity through changes in life history connectivity and recruitment, and add to the accumulating evidence for changes in the Northeast U.S. Shelf Ecosystem with potential to impact fisheries and other ecosystem services. PMID:26398900

How to Define the Mean Square Amplitude of Solar Wind Fluctuations With Respect to the Local Mean Magnetic Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podesta, John J.

2017-12-01

Over the last decade it has become popular to analyze turbulent solar wind fluctuations with respect to a coordinate system aligned with the local mean magnetic field. This useful analysis technique has provided new information and new insights about the nature of solar wind fluctuations and provided some support for phenomenological theories of MHD turbulence based on the ideas of Goldreich and Sridhar. At the same time it has drawn criticism suggesting that the use of a scale-dependent local mean field is somehow inconsistent or irreconcilable with traditional analysis techniques based on second-order structure functions and power spectra that, for stationary time series, are defined with respect to the constant (scale-independent) ensemble average magnetic field. Here it is shown that for fluctuations with power law spectra, such as those observed in solar wind turbulence, it is possible to define the local mean magnetic field in a special way such that the total mean square amplitude (trace amplitude) of turbulent fluctuations is approximately the same, scale by scale, as that obtained using traditional second-order structure functions or power spectra. This fact should dispel criticism concerning the physical validity or practical usefulness of the local mean magnetic field in these applications.

Influences of the MJO on the space-time organization of tropical convection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dias, Juliana; Sakaeda, Naoko; Kiladis, George N.; Kikuchi, Kazuyoshi

2017-08-01

The fact that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is characterized by large-scale patterns of enhanced tropical rainfall has been widely recognized for decades. However, the precise nature of any two-way feedback between the MJO and the properties of smaller-scale organization that makes up its convective envelope is not well understood. Satellite estimates of brightness temperature are used here as a proxy for tropical rainfall, and a variety of diagnostics are applied to determine the degree to which tropical convection is affected either locally or globally by the MJO. To address the multiscale nature of tropical convective organization, the approach ranges from space-time spectral analysis to an object-tracking algorithm. In addition to the intensity and distribution of global tropical rainfall, the relationship between the MJO and other tropical processes such as convectively coupled equatorial waves, mesoscale convective systems, and the diurnal cycle of tropical convection is also analyzed. The main findings of this paper are that, aside from the well-known increase in rainfall activity across scales within the MJO convective envelope, the MJO does not favor any particular scale or type of organization, and there is no clear signature of the MJO in terms of the globally integrated distribution of brightness temperature or rainfall.

Catchment Legacies and Time Lags: A Parsimonious Watershed Model to Predict the Effects of Legacy Storage on Nitrogen Export

PubMed Central

Van Meter, Kimberly J.; Basu, Nandita B.

2015-01-01

Nutrient legacies in anthropogenic landscapes, accumulated over decades of fertilizer application, lead to time lags between implementation of conservation measures and improvements in water quality. Quantification of such time lags has remained difficult, however, due to an incomplete understanding of controls on nutrient depletion trajectories after changes in land-use or management practices. In this study, we have developed a parsimonious watershed model for quantifying catchment-scale time lags based on both soil nutrient accumulations (biogeochemical legacy) and groundwater travel time distributions (hydrologic legacy). The model accurately predicted the time lags observed in an Iowa watershed that had undergone a 41% conversion of area from row crop to native prairie. We explored the time scales of change for stream nutrient concentrations as a function of both natural and anthropogenic controls, from topography to spatial patterns of land-use change. Our results demonstrate that the existence of biogeochemical nutrient legacies increases time lags beyond those due to hydrologic legacy alone. In addition, we show that the maximum concentration reduction benefits vary according to the spatial pattern of intervention, with preferential conversion of land parcels having the shortest catchment-scale travel times providing proportionally greater concentration reductions as well as faster response times. In contrast, a random pattern of conversion results in a 1:1 relationship between percent land conversion and percent concentration reduction, irrespective of denitrification rates within the landscape. Our modeling framework allows for the quantification of tradeoffs between costs associated with implementation of conservation measures and the time needed to see the desired concentration reductions, making it of great value to decision makers regarding optimal implementation of watershed conservation measures. PMID:25985290

Catchment legacies and time lags: a parsimonious watershed model to predict the effects of legacy storage on nitrogen export.

PubMed

Van Meter, Kimberly J; Basu, Nandita B

2015-01-01

Nutrient legacies in anthropogenic landscapes, accumulated over decades of fertilizer application, lead to time lags between implementation of conservation measures and improvements in water quality. Quantification of such time lags has remained difficult, however, due to an incomplete understanding of controls on nutrient depletion trajectories after changes in land-use or management practices. In this study, we have developed a parsimonious watershed model for quantifying catchment-scale time lags based on both soil nutrient accumulations (biogeochemical legacy) and groundwater travel time distributions (hydrologic legacy). The model accurately predicted the time lags observed in an Iowa watershed that had undergone a 41% conversion of area from row crop to native prairie. We explored the time scales of change for stream nutrient concentrations as a function of both natural and anthropogenic controls, from topography to spatial patterns of land-use change. Our results demonstrate that the existence of biogeochemical nutrient legacies increases time lags beyond those due to hydrologic legacy alone. In addition, we show that the maximum concentration reduction benefits vary according to the spatial pattern of intervention, with preferential conversion of land parcels having the shortest catchment-scale travel times providing proportionally greater concentration reductions as well as faster response times. In contrast, a random pattern of conversion results in a 1:1 relationship between percent land conversion and percent concentration reduction, irrespective of denitrification rates within the landscape. Our modeling framework allows for the quantification of tradeoffs between costs associated with implementation of conservation measures and the time needed to see the desired concentration reductions, making it of great value to decision makers regarding optimal implementation of watershed conservation measures.

Two decades of progress in understanding and control of laser plasma instabilities in indirect drive inertial fusion

DOE PAGES

Montgomery, David S.

2016-04-14

Our understanding of laser-plasma instability (LPI) physics has improved dramatically over the past two decades through advancements in experimental techniques, diagnostics, and theoretical and modeling approaches. We have progressed from single-beam experiments—ns pulses with ~kJ energy incident on hundred-micron-scale target plasmas with ~keV electron temperatures—to ones involving nearly 2 MJ energy in 192 beams onto multi-mm-scale plasmas with temperatures ~4 keV. At the same time, we have also been able to use smaller-scale laser facilities to substantially improve our understanding of LPI physics and evaluate novel approaches to their control. These efforts have led to a change in paradigm formore » LPI research, ushering in an era of engineering LPI to accomplish specific objectives, from tuning capsule implosion symmetry to fixing nonlinear saturation of LPI processes at acceptable levels to enable the exploration of high energy density physics in novel plasma regimes. A tutorial is provided that reviews the progress in the field from the vantage of the foundational LPI experimental results. The pedagogical framework of the simplest models of LPI will be employed, but attention will also be paid to settings where more sophisticated models are needed to understand the observations. Prospects for the application of our improved understanding for inertial fusion (both indirect- and direct-drive) and other applications will also be discussed.« less

Toward a U.S. National Phenological Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henebry, Geoffrey M.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2010-01-01

Third USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) and Research Coordination Network (RCN) Annual Meeting; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 5-9 October 2009; Directional climate change will have profound and lasting effects throughout society that are best understood through fundamental physical and biological processes. One such process is phenology: how the timing of recurring biological events is affected by biotic and abiotic forces. Phenology is an early and integrative indicator of climate change readily understood by nonspecialists. Phenology affects the planting, maturation, and harvesting of food and fiber; pollination; timing and magnitude of allergies and disease; recreation and tourism; water quantity and quality; and ecosystem function and resilience. Thus, phenology is the gateway to climatic effects on both managed and unmanaged ecosystems. Adaptation to climatic variability and change will require integration of phenological data and models with climatic forecasts at seasonal to decadal time scales. Changes in phenologies have already manifested myriad effects of directional climate change. As these changes continue, it is critical to establish a comprehensive suite of benchmarks that can be tracked and mapped at local to continental scales with observations and climate models.

Land use change and precipitation feedbacks across the Tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCurley, K.; Jawitz, J. W.

2017-12-01

We investigated the relationship between agricultural land expansion, resulting in deforestation in the Tropics (South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia), and the local/regional hydroclimatic cycle. We hypothesized that changes in physical catchment properties in recent decades have resulted in measurable impacts on elements of the water budget, specifically evapotranspiration and precipitation. Using high resolution, gridded global precipitation and potential evapotranspiration data, as well as discharge time series (1960-2007) from the Global Runoff Data Center, we computed the components of the water budget on a catchment scale from 81 tropical basins that have experienced land use change. We estimated the landscape-driven component of evapotranspiration for two time periods, 1960-1983 and 1984-2007, and compared it to the relative change in forest cover across time. The findings show a negative relationship between the landscape-driven component of evapotranspiration and deforestation, suggesting that a decrease in forest cover causes a decrease in evapotranspiration. We further illustrate how this dynamic implicates basin-scale water availability due to land use change stimulated by agricultural production, including potential negative feedback of agricultural area expansion onto precipitation recycling.

The QBO Impact on Stratospheric Composition as Revealed by the MERRA-2 GMI Simulation and NASA Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oman, L.; Strahan, S. E.

2017-12-01

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is the dominant mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere on interannual time scales. It has been shown to impact both stratospheric dynamics and important trace gas constituent distributions. The QBO timing with respect to the seasonal cycle in each hemisphere is significant in determining its impact on up to decadal scale variability. The composition response to the QBO is examined using the new MERRA-2 GMI "Replay" simulation, an atmospheric composition community resource, run at the native MERRA-2 approximately ½° horizontal resolution on the cubed sphere. MERRA-2 GMI is driven by the online use of key MERRA-2 meteorological quantities (i.e. U, V, T, and P) with all other variables calculated in response to those and boundary condition forcings from 1980-2016. The simulation combined with NASA's UARS and Aura satellite measurements have allowed us to quantify the impact of the QBO on stratospheric composition in more detail than was ever possible before. Revealing preferential pathways and transport timings necessary in understanding the QBO impact on composition throughout the stratosphere.

Data management for JGOFS: Theory and design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Flierl, Glenn R.; Bishop, James K. B.; Glover, David M.; Paranjpe, Satish

1992-01-01

The Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS), currently being organized under the auspices of the Scientific Committee for Ocean Research (SCOR), is intended to be a decade long internationally coordinated program. The main goal of JGOFS is to determine and understand on a global scale the processes controlling the time-varying fluxes of carbon and associated biogenic elements in the ocean and to evaluate the related exchanges with the atmosphere, sea floor and continental boundaries. 'A long-term goal of JGOFS will be to establish strategies for observing, on long time scales, changes in ocean biogeochemical cycles in relation to climate change'. Participation from a large number of U.S. and foreign institutions is expected. JGOFS investigators have begun a set of time-series measurements and global surveys of a wide variety of biological, chemical and physical quantities, detailed process-oriented studies, satellite observations of ocean color and wind stress and modeling of the bio-geochemical processes. These experiments will generate data in amounts unprecedented in the biological and chemical communities; rapid and effortless exchange of these data will be important to the success of JGOFS.

Climate control of decadal-scale increases in apparent ages of eogenetic karst spring water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Jonathan B.; Kurz, Marie J.; Khadka, Mitra B.

2016-09-01

Water quantity and quality in karst aquifers may depend on decadal-scale variations in recharge or withdrawal, which we hypothesize could be assessed through time-series measurements of apparent ages of spring water. We tested this hypothesis with analyses of various age tracers (3H/3He, SF6, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113) and selected solute concentrations [dissolved oxygen (DO), NO3, Mg, and SO4] from 6 springs in a single spring complex (Ichetucknee springs) in northern Florida over a 16-yr period. These springs fall into two groups that reflect shallow short (Group 1) and deep long (Group 2) flow paths. Some tracer concentrations are altered, with CFC-12 and CFC-113 concentrations yielding the most robust apparent ages. These tracers show a 10-20-yr monotonic increase in apparent age from 1997 to 2013, including the flood recession that followed Tropical Storm Debby in mid-2012. This increase in age indicates most water discharged during the study period recharged the aquifer within a few years of 1973 for Group 2 springs and 1980 for Group 1 springs. Inverse correlations between apparent age and DO and NO3 concentrations reflect reduced redox state in older water. Positive correlations between apparent age and Mg and SO4 concentrations reflect increased water-rock reactions. Concentrated recharge in the decade around 1975 resulted from nearly 2 m of rain in excess of the monthly average that fell between 1960 and 2014, followed by a nearly 4 m deficit to 2014. This excess rain coincided with two major El Niño events during the maximum cool phase in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Although regional water withdrawal increased nearly 5-fold between 1980 and 2005, withdrawals represent only 2-5% of Ichetucknee River flow and are less important than decadal-long variations in precipitation. These results suggest that groundwater management should consider climate cycles as predictive tools for future water resources.

Paleoclimatological perspective on the hydrometeorology of the Mekong Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Räsänen, T. A.; Lehr, C.; Mellin, I.; Ward, P. J.; Kummu, M.

2012-11-01

During recent decades the Mekong River has experienced substantial interannual variations between droughts and major floods. The causes of these variations have been sought in climate change and dam construction. However, so far little research has addressed whether these recent variations are significantly different to long-term variations in the past. Hence, the aim of our paper is to place the recent variations between droughts and floods into a historical and paleoclimatological context. To achieve this we analysed the Mekong's meteorological conditions over the period 1300-2005 with a basin scale approach by using the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA), which is a Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) dataset derived from tree-ring growth records. The correlation analyses, both in time and frequency domains, showed correlation between MADA and the Mekong's discharge over the period 1910-2005 which suggests that MADA can be used as proxy for the hydrometeorology of the Mekong Basin. We found that the meteorological conditions of the Mekong varied at multi-annual, decadal and centennial scales over the study period. We found two especially distinct features: firstly, multi-annual and decadal variation between prolonged wet and dry epochs; and secondly, epochs with higher or lower interannual variability between very dry and wet years. Furthermore we found two epochs with exceptionally large interannual variability, one at the beginning of 17th century and the other in the post 1950 epoch. Both epochs are characterized by distinct increases in variability between very wet and dry years. The variability in the post 1950 epoch is much higher compared to any of the other epochs included in this study. Thus, during recent decades the climate in the Mekong has exhibited features that have not been experienced for at least several centuries. These findings call for further climate research, particularly regarding increased climate variability, and resilient adaptation and development approaches in the basin.

A subcontinental view of forest plant invasions

Treesearch

Christopher M. Oswalt; Songlin Fei; Qinfeng Guo; Basil V. Iannone III; Sonja N. Oswalt; Bryan C. Pijanowski; Kevin M. Potter

2015-01-01

Over the last few decades, considerable attention has focused on small-scale studies of invasive plants and invaded systems. Unfortunately, small scale studies rarely provide comprehensive insight into the complexities of biological invasions at macroscales. Systematic and repeated monitoring of biological invasions at broad scales are rare. In this report, we...

Decadal-Scale Responses in Middle and Upper Stratospheric Ozone From SAGE II Version 7 Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remsberg, E. E.

2014-01-01

Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE II) version 7 (v7) ozone profiles are analyzed for their decadal-scale responses in the middle and upper stratosphere for 1991 and 1992-2005 and compared with those from its previous version 6.2 (v6.2). Multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis is applied to time series of its ozone number density vs. altitude data for a range of latitudes and altitudes. The MLR models that are fit to the time series data include a periodic 11 yr term, and it is in-phase with that of the 11 yr, solar UV (Ultraviolet)-flux throughout most of the latitude/ altitude domain of the middle and upper stratosphere. Several regions that have a response that is not quite in-phase are interpreted as being affected by decadal-scale, dynamical forcings. The maximum minus minimum, solar cycle (SClike) responses for the ozone at the low latitudes are similar from the two SAGE II data versions and vary from about 5 to 2.5% from 35 to 50 km, although they are resolved better with v7. SAGE II v7 ozone is also analyzed for 1984-1998, in order to mitigate effects of end-point anomalies that bias its ozone in 1991 and the analyzed results for 1991-2005 or following the Pinatubo eruption. Its SC-like ozone response in the upper stratosphere is of the order of 4%for 1984-1998 vs. 2.5 to 3%for 1991-2005. The SAGE II v7 results are also recompared with the responses in ozone from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) that are in terms of mixing ratio vs. pressure for 1991-2005 and then for late 1992- 2005 to avoid any effects following Pinatubo. Shapes of their respective response profiles agree very well for 1992-2005. The associated linear trends of the ozone are not as negative in 1992-2005 as in 1984-1998, in accord with a leveling off of the effects of reactive chlorine on ozone. It is concluded that the SAGE II v7 ozone yields SC-like ozone responses and trends that are of better quality than those from v6.2.

MATERIALS SCIENCE: New Tigers in the Fuel Cell Tank.

PubMed

Service, R F

2000-06-16

After decades of incremental advances, a spurt of findings suggests that fuel cells that run on good old fossil fuels are almost ready for prime time. Although conventional ceramic cells, known as solid oxide fuel cells, require expensive heat-resistant materials, a new generation of SOFCs, including one featured on page 2031, converts hydrocarbons directly into electricity at lower temperatures. And a recent demonstration of a system of standard SOFCs large enough to light up more than 200 homes showed that it is the most efficient large-scale electrical generator ever designed.

Toward broadband mechanical spectroscopy.

PubMed

Hecksher, Tina; Torchinsky, Darius H; Klieber, Christoph; Johnson, Jeremy A; Dyre, Jeppe C; Nelson, Keith A

2017-08-15

Diverse material classes exhibit qualitatively similar behavior when made viscous upon cooling toward the glass transition, suggesting a common theoretical basis. We used seven different measurement methods to determine the mechanical relaxation kinetics of a prototype molecular glass former over a temporal range of 13 decades and over a temperature range spanning liquid to glassy states. The data conform to time-temperature superposition for the main (alpha) process and to a scaling relation of schematic mode-coupling theory. The broadband mechanical measurements demonstrated have fundamental and practical applications in polymer science, geophysics, multifunctional materials, and other areas.

Basin-Wide Oceanographic Array Bridges the South Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ansorge, I. J.; Baringer, M. O.; Campos, E. J. D.; Dong, S.; Fine, R. A.; Garzoli, S. L.; Goni, G.; Meinen, C. S.; Perez, R. C.; Piola, A. R.; Roberts, M. J.; Speich, S.; Sprintall, J.; Terre, T.; Van den Berg, M. A.

2014-02-01

The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is a global system of surface, intermediate, and deep ocean currents. The MOC connects the surface layer of the ocean and the atmosphere with the huge reservoir of the deep sea and is the primary mechanism for transporting heat, freshwater, and carbon between ocean basins. Climate models show that past changes in the strength of the MOC were linked to historical climate variations. Further research suggests that the MOC will continue to modulate climate change scenarios on time scales ranging from decades to centuries [Latif et al., 2006].

Decadal Prediction Skill in the GEOS-5 Forecast System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Rienecker, Michael M.; Suarez, M.; Vikhliaev, Yury V.; Zhao, Bin; Marshak, Jelena; Vernieres, Guillaume; Schubert, Siegfried D.

2012-01-01

A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office?s GEOS-5 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM). The hindcasts are initialized every December from 1959 to 2010 following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multi-variate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from the atmospheric reanalysis (MERRA, the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) generated using the GEOS-5 atmospheric model. The forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble mean is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but forced with observed CO2. The results show that initialization acts to increase the forecast skill of Northern Atlantic SST compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. The annual-mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) index is predictable up to a 5-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the Northern Atlantic. While the skill measured by Mean Squared Skill Score (MSSS) shows 50% improvement up to 10-year lead forecast over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, however, prediction skill is relatively low in the subpolar gyre, due in part to the fact that the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region appears to be unrealistic. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts.

Whether the decadal shift of South Asia High intensity around the late 1970s exists or not

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Xu; Chen, Wen; Nath, Debashis; Zhou, Dingwen

2015-05-01

This study compares the decadal means of the seasonal (June-July-August (JJA)) mean geopotential heights available from the NCEP1 and ERA-40 reanalysis data in the Northern Hemisphere. The interdecadal changes in the South Asia High (SAH) intensity derived from the reanalysis data are also compared with ground-based radiosonde observations and atmospheric model outputs. The JJA mean geopotential heights in the 1980s are distinctly larger than the 1970s in NCEP1 over most of the regions in the Northern Hemisphere, while no obvious difference is observed in ERA-40. The interannual variation of the SAH strength is very close in the two reanalysis data, so that it is appropriate to utilize the reanalysis data to study the interannual variation of SAH strength after removing the interdecadal trend. However, the discrepancy in SAH intensity between NCEP1 and ERA-40 mainly exists on the interdecadal time scale. The SAH intensity in the NCEP1 was close to that in the ERA-40 before the late 1970s but became remarkably stronger after the late 1970s, leading to a much larger decadal strengthening during the period 1970-1990. Based on the six radiosonde observation stations in the area of the SAH, the results indicate that the decadal reinforcing in the SAH strength occurs around the mid-1980s. Thus, NCEP1 may overestimate the decadal shift in the SAH intensity around the late 1970s, while ERA-40 may underestimate it. Much attention needs to be paid when we use the reanalysis data to study the decadal variability of the SAH intensity.

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of WRF-CMAQ ozone simulations over the contiguous United States

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic evaluation of the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)– Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ozone simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two decades of simulations covering the period from 1990 to 2010 is conducted to ...

Dynamic evaluation of two decades of WRF-CMAQ ozone simulations over the contiguous United States

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic evaluation of the fully coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)– Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model ozone simulations over the contiguous United States (CONUS) using two decades of simulations covering the period from 1990 to 2010 is conducted to assess...

Creating Near-Term Climate Scenarios for AgMIP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goddard, L.; Greene, A. M.; Baethgen, W.

2012-12-01

For the next assessment report of the IPCC (AR5), attention is being given to development of climate information that is appropriate for adaptation, such as decadal-scale and near-term predictions intended to capture the combined effects of natural climate variability and the emerging climate change signal. While the science and practice evolve for the production and use of dynamic decadal prediction, information relevant to agricultural decision-makers can be gained from analysis of past decadal-scale trends and variability. Statistical approaches that mimic the characteristics of observed year-to-year variability can indicate the range of possibilities and their likelihood. In this talk we present work towards development of near-term climate scenarios, which are needed to engage decision-makers and stakeholders in the regions in current decision-making. The work includes analyses of decadal-scale variability and trends in the AgMIP regions, and statistical approaches that capture year-to-year variability and the associated persistence of wet and dry years. We will outline the general methodology and some of the specific considerations in the regional application of the methodology for different AgMIP regions, such those for Western Africa versus southern Africa. We will also show some examples of quality checks and informational summaries of the generated data, including (1) metrics of information quality such as probabilistic reliability for a suite of relevant climate variables and indices important for agriculture; (2) quality checks relative to the use of this climate data in crop models; and, (3) summary statistics (e.g., for 5-10-year periods or across given spatial scales).

Long-term change of potential evapotranspiration over Southwest China and teleconnections with large-scale climate anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, B.; Chen, X.; Li, Y.; Chen, Z.

2017-12-01

bstract: Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a sensitive factor for atmospheric and ecological systems over Southwest China which is characterized by intensive karst geomorphology and fragile environment. Based on daily meteorological data of 94 stations during 1961-2013, the spatiotemporal characteristics of PET are analyzed. The changing characteristics of local meteorological factors and large-scale climatic features are also investigated to explain the potential reasons for changing PET. Study results are as follows: (1) The high-value center of PET with a mean value of 1097 mm/a locates in the south mainly resulted from the regional climatic features of higher air temperature (TEM), sunshine duration (SSD) and lower relative humidity (RHU); and the low-value center of PET with a mean value of 831 mm/a is in the northeast primarily attributed to higher RHU and weaker SSD. (2) Annual PET decreases at -10.04 mm decade-1 before the year 2000 but increases at 50.65 mm decade-1 thereafter; and the dominant factors of PET change are SSD, RHU and wind speed (WIN), with the relative contributions of 33.29%, 25.42% and 22.16%, respectively. (3) The abrupt change of PET in 2000 is strongly dominated by large-scale climatic anomalies. The strengthened 850hPa geostrophic wind (0.51 ms-1 decade-1), weakened total cloud cover (-2.25 % decade-1) and 500hPa water vapor flux (-2.85 % decade-1) have provided advantageous dynamic, thermal and dry conditions for PET over Southwest China since the 21st century.

Pacific Decadal Variability and Central Pacific Warming El Niño in a Changing Climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Di Lorenzo, Emanuele

This research aimed at understanding the dynamics controlling decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean and its interactions with global-scale climate change. The first goal was to assess how the dynamics and statistics of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the modes of Pacific decadal variability are represented in global climate models used in the IPCC. The second goal was to quantify how decadal dynamics are projected to change under continued greenhouse forcing, and determine their significance in the context of paleo-proxy reconstruction of long-term climate.

Exploring landscapes and ecosystems by studying their streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchner, J. W.

2016-12-01

Streams integrate fluxes of water, solutes, and sediment from their catchments, and thus they act as mirrors of the surrounding landscape. Patterns of streamflow, chemistry, and sediment flux can therefore shed light on physical, chemical, and biological processes at the scale of whole ecosystems. However, landscapes also exhibit preferential flow and pervasive heterogeneity on all scales, and therefore store waters over a wide spectrum of time scales, complicating efforts to interpret hydrological and geochemical signals in streamwaters. Here I review current and recent research exploring how landscapes store, mix, and release water and solutes to streams. Groundwater levels and stream flows exhibit diurnal cycles in response to snowmelt in springtime and transpiration during the growing season. These cycles vividly illustrate how aquifers and streams mirror ecological processes in their surrounding landscapes. Stream networks extend and retract, both seasonally and in response to individual rainfall events, dynamically mapping out variations in subsurface transmissivity and in the balance between precipitation and transpiration. Water quality time series spanning the periodic table, from H+ to U, exhibit universal fractal scaling on time scales from hours to decades. This scaling behavior is a temporal expression of the spatial heterogeneity that pervades the subsurface, and it confounds efforts to identify water quality trends. Isotope tracers such as 18O, 2H, 3H, and 14C can used to quantify water ages over seven orders of magnitude, from hours to thousands of years. These tracers show that substantial fractions of streamflow are hours, days, and months old, even in streams fed by aquifers with significant proportions of pre-Holocene groundwater. Examples such as these will be presented to illustrate the close coupling between landscapes and the waters that drain them, and to demonstrate how streams can be used as windows into landscape processes.

RECONCILIATION OF WAITING TIME STATISTICS OF SOLAR FLARES OBSERVED IN HARD X-RAYS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aschwanden, Markus J.; McTiernan, James M., E-mail: aschwanden@lmsal.co, E-mail: jimm@ssl.berkeley.ed

2010-07-10

We study the waiting time distributions of solar flares observed in hard X-rays with ISEE-3/ICE, HXRBS/SMM, WATCH/GRANAT, BATSE/CGRO, and RHESSI. Although discordant results and interpretations have been published earlier, based on relatively small ranges (<2 decades) of waiting times, we find that all observed distributions, spanning over 6 decades of waiting times ({Delta}t {approx} 10{sup -3}-10{sup 3} hr), can be reconciled with a single distribution function, N({Delta}t) {proportional_to} {lambda}{sub 0}(1 + {lambda}{sub 0{Delta}}t){sup -2}, which has a power-law slope of p {approx} 2.0 at large waiting times ({Delta}t {approx} 1-1000 hr) and flattens out at short waiting times {Delta}t {approx}

Hydroclimate variability in NE Brazil over the last 2K

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giselle, Utida; Ioanna, Bouloubassi; Francisco, Cruz; Enno, Schefuβ; Abdel, Sifeddine; Vincent, Klein; Johan, Etourneau; Renata, Zocatelli; André, Zular; Hai, Cheng; Laurence, Edwards R.

2016-04-01

Precipitation associated with the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) supplies more than 70% of tropical South America's annual precipitation and is fundamental in sustaining the water regime for regional socioeconomic activities. Motivated by the fact that the greatest uncertainty in model projections of future precipitation trends lies in the tropics, and particularly in South America, a number of recent proxy and modeling studies have aimed at understanding SASM spatiotemporal variability regarding its dynamics, driving mechanisms and teleconnections. Exact reconstructions of past meridional ITCZ displacements (timing, sign, amplitude), however, are currently lacking, mainly because of the paucity of suited high-resolution archives. This restricts our ability to assess regional rainfall variability at decadal to centennial timescales, especially in the hydroclimatic-sensitive semi-arid Nordeste, needed to understand the interactions between SASM and ITCZ and to evaluate the impact of Pacific-Atlantic climate interactions on the regional rainfall variability at decadal/multi-decadal scale. Here we present two new and complementary high-resolution records of past precipitation over the last 2K from the north area of Nordeste, an area ideally located to track fluctuations in the southernmost edge of ITCZ movement. We present a new δO18 record from a local speleothem and combine it, for the first time, with δD analyses of wax lipids in well-dated sediments from a nearby lake. The two independent records show a remarkable similarity and are characterized by strong decadal to multidecadal variability as well as century-scale changes. The period 250-450 yrs CE appears as the wettest phase over the last 2K, while the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) is characterized by extremely dry conditions. Following the MCA, the Little Ice Age (LIA) is a relatively wetter phase. The data document fluctuations of southern meridional ITCZ movements during the last millennium that compare well with available records of fluctuations in northern ITCZ extension (Cariaco Basin). Comparisons to proxy records from tropical South America regions affected by the SASM and the South America Convergence Zone (SACZ) allow evaluating the SAMS/SACZ-ITCZ linkages. Furthermore, the data are discussed in terms of the role of the Atlantic and Pacific modes of variability in modulating regional hydroclimate.