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Sample records for decision analysis approach

  1. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more

  2. Decision analysis of polluted sites -- A fuzzy set approach

    SciTech Connect

    Mohamed, A.M.O.; Cote, K.

    1999-07-01

    A decision analysis based model (DAPS 1.0, Decision Analysis of Polluted Sites) has been developed to evaluate risks that polluted sites might pose to human health. Pollutants present in soils and sediments can potentially migrate from source to receptor(s), via different pathways. in the developed model, pathways are simulated via transport models (i.e., groundwater transport model, runoff-erosion model, air diffusion model, and sediment diffusion, and resuspension model in water bodies). Humans can be affected by pollutant migration through land and water use. health risks can arise from ingestion of and dermal contact with polluted water and soil, as well as through inhalation of polluted air. Quantitative estimates of risks are calculated for both carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic pollutants. Being very heterogeneous, soil and sediment systems are characterized by uncertain parameters. Concepts of fuzzy set theory have been adopted to account for uncertainty in the input parameters which are represented by fuzzy numbers. An inference model using fuzzy logic has been constructed for reasoning in the decision analysis.

  3. A review and classification of approaches for dealing with uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis for healthcare decisions.

    PubMed

    Broekhuizen, Henk; Groothuis-Oudshoorn, Catharina G M; van Til, Janine A; Hummel, J Marjan; IJzerman, Maarten J

    2015-05-01

    Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is increasingly used to support decisions in healthcare involving multiple and conflicting criteria. Although uncertainty is usually carefully addressed in health economic evaluations, whether and how the different sources of uncertainty are dealt with and with what methods in MCDA is less known. The objective of this study is to review how uncertainty can be explicitly taken into account in MCDA and to discuss which approach may be appropriate for healthcare decision makers. A literature review was conducted in the Scopus and PubMed databases. Two reviewers independently categorized studies according to research areas, the type of MCDA used, and the approach used to quantify uncertainty. Selected full text articles were read for methodological details. The search strategy identified 569 studies. The five approaches most identified were fuzzy set theory (45% of studies), probabilistic sensitivity analysis (15%), deterministic sensitivity analysis (31%), Bayesian framework (6%), and grey theory (3%). A large number of papers considered the analytic hierarchy process in combination with fuzzy set theory (31%). Only 3% of studies were published in healthcare-related journals. In conclusion, our review identified five different approaches to take uncertainty into account in MCDA. The deterministic approach is most likely sufficient for most healthcare policy decisions because of its low complexity and straightforward implementation. However, more complex approaches may be needed when multiple sources of uncertainty must be considered simultaneously.

  4. A distance-based uncertainty analysis approach to multi-criteria decision analysis for water resource decision making.

    PubMed

    Hyde, K M; Maier, H R; Colby, C B

    2005-12-01

    The choice among alternative water supply sources is generally based on the fundamental objective of maximising the ratio of benefits to costs. There is, however, a need to consider sustainability, the environment and social implications in regional water resources planning, in addition to economics. In order to achieve this, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques can be used. Various sources of uncertainty exist in the application of MCDA methods, including the selection of the MCDA method, elicitation of criteria weights and assignment of criteria performance values. The focus of this paper is on the uncertainty in the criteria weights. Sensitivity analysis can be used to analyse the effects of uncertainties associated with the criteria weights. Two existing sensitivity methods are described in this paper and a new distance-based approach is proposed which overcomes limitations of these methods. The benefits of the proposed approach are the concurrent alteration of the criteria weights, the applicability of the method to a range of MCDA techniques and the identification of the most critical criteria weights. The existing and proposed methods are applied to three case studies and the results indicate that simultaneous consideration of the uncertainty in the criteria weights should be an integral part of the decision making process.

  5. A decision analysis approach to climate adaptation: comparing multiple pathways for multi-decadal decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, B. B.; Little, L.

    2013-12-01

    Policy planners around the world are required to consider the implications of adapting to climatic change across spatial contexts and decadal timeframes. However, local level information for planning is often poorly defined, even though climate adaptation decision-making is made at this scale. This is especially true when considering sea level rise and coastal impacts of climate change. We present a simple approach using sea level rise simulations paired with adaptation scenarios to assess a range of adaptation options available to local councils dealing with issues of beach recession under present and future sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and beach recession pose a large socioeconomic risk to coastal communities because of the loss of key coastal infrastructure. We examine the well-known adaptation technique of beach nourishment and assess various timings and amounts of beach nourishment at decadal time spans in relation to beach recession impacts. The objective was to identify an adaptation strategy that would allow for a low frequency of management interventions, the maintenance of beach width, and the ability to minimize variation in beach width over the 2010 to 2100 simulation period. 1000 replications of each adaptation option were produced against the 90 year simulation in order to model the ability each adaptation option to achieve the three key objectives. Three sets of adaptation scenarios were identified. Within each scenario, a number of adaptation options were tested. The three scenarios were: 1) Fixed periodic beach replenishment of specific amounts at 20 and 50 year intervals, 2) Beach replenishment to the initial beach width based on trigger levels of recession (5m, 10m, 20m), and 3) Fixed period beach replenishment of a variable amount at decadal intervals (every 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years). For each adaptation option, we show the effectiveness of each beach replenishment scenario to maintain beach width and consider the implications of more

  6. The decision analysis interview approach in the collaborative management of a large regulated water course.

    PubMed

    Marttunen, Mika; Hämäläinen, Raimo P

    2008-12-01

    There are always conflicting goals in the management of large water courses. However, by involving stakeholders actively in the planning and decision-making processes, it is possible to work together toward commonly acceptable solutions. In this article, we describe how we applied interactive multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) in a collaborative process which aimed at an ecologically, socially, and economically sustainable water course regulation policy. The stakeholders' opinions about the alternative regulation schemes and the relative importance of their impacts were elicited with the HIPRE software. Altogether, 20 personal interactive decision analysis interviews (DAIs) were carried out with the stakeholders. Our experience suggests that the DAIs can considerably improve the quality and efficiency of the collaborative planning process. By improving communication and understanding of the decision situation in the steering group, the approach helped to develop a consensus solution in a case having strong conflicts of interest. In order to gain the full benefits of the MCDA approach, interactive preference elicitation is vital. It is also essential to integrate the approach tightly into the planning and decision-making process. The project's home pages are available to the public at http://www.paijanne.hut.fi/. PMID:18830741

  7. The Decision Analysis Interview Approach in the Collaborative Management of a Large Regulated Water Course

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marttunen, Mika; Hämäläinen, Raimo P.

    2008-12-01

    There are always conflicting goals in the management of large water courses. However, by involving stakeholders actively in the planning and decision-making processes, it is possible to work together toward commonly acceptable solutions. In this article, we describe how we applied interactive multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) in a collaborative process which aimed at an ecologically, socially, and economically sustainable water course regulation policy. The stakeholders’ opinions about the alternative regulation schemes and the relative importance of their impacts were elicited with the HIPRE software. Altogether, 20 personal interactive decision analysis interviews (DAIs) were carried out with the stakeholders. Our experience suggests that the DAIs can considerably improve the quality and efficiency of the collaborative planning process. By improving communication and understanding of the decision situation in the steering group, the approach helped to develop a consensus solution in a case having strong conflicts of interest. In order to gain the full benefits of the MCDA approach, interactive preference elicitation is vital. It is also essential to integrate the approach tightly into the planning and decision-making process. The project’s home pages are available to the public at http://www.paijanne.hut.fi/ .

  8. The decision analysis interview approach in the collaborative management of a large regulated water course.

    PubMed

    Marttunen, Mika; Hämäläinen, Raimo P

    2008-12-01

    There are always conflicting goals in the management of large water courses. However, by involving stakeholders actively in the planning and decision-making processes, it is possible to work together toward commonly acceptable solutions. In this article, we describe how we applied interactive multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) in a collaborative process which aimed at an ecologically, socially, and economically sustainable water course regulation policy. The stakeholders' opinions about the alternative regulation schemes and the relative importance of their impacts were elicited with the HIPRE software. Altogether, 20 personal interactive decision analysis interviews (DAIs) were carried out with the stakeholders. Our experience suggests that the DAIs can considerably improve the quality and efficiency of the collaborative planning process. By improving communication and understanding of the decision situation in the steering group, the approach helped to develop a consensus solution in a case having strong conflicts of interest. In order to gain the full benefits of the MCDA approach, interactive preference elicitation is vital. It is also essential to integrate the approach tightly into the planning and decision-making process. The project's home pages are available to the public at http://www.paijanne.hut.fi/.

  9. Shared Decision-Making Models Acknowledging an Interprofessional Approach: A Theory Analysis to Inform Nursing Practice.

    PubMed

    Lewis, Krystina B; Stacey, Dawn; Squires, Janet E; Carroll, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    Patient engagement in collaboration with health professionals is essential to deliver quality health care. A shared decision-making (SDM) approach requires that patients are involved in decisions regarding their health. SDM is expanding from the patient-physician dyad to incorporate an interprofessional perspective. Conceptual models can be used to better understand theoretical underpinnings for application in clinical practice. The aim of this article was to conduct a theory analysis of conceptual models using an interprofessional approach to SDM and discuss each model's relevance to nursing practice. Walker and Avant's theory analysis approach was used. Three conceptual models were eligible. For all models, the decision-making process was considered iterative. The development process was described for 1 model. All models were logical, parsimonious, and generalizable. One was supported by empirical testing. No model described how partnerships are enacted to achieve interprofessional SDM. Also, there was limited articulation as to how nurses' roles and contributions differ from other team members. This theory analysis highlights the need for a model that explains how partnerships among interprofessional team members are enacted to better understand the operationalization of interprofessional SDM. Implications for nursing practice at all system levels are offered and supported by the 3 models. PMID:27024998

  10. Shared Decision-Making Models Acknowledging an Interprofessional Approach: A Theory Analysis to Inform Nursing Practice.

    PubMed

    Lewis, Krystina B; Stacey, Dawn; Squires, Janet E; Carroll, Sandra

    2016-01-01

    Patient engagement in collaboration with health professionals is essential to deliver quality health care. A shared decision-making (SDM) approach requires that patients are involved in decisions regarding their health. SDM is expanding from the patient-physician dyad to incorporate an interprofessional perspective. Conceptual models can be used to better understand theoretical underpinnings for application in clinical practice. The aim of this article was to conduct a theory analysis of conceptual models using an interprofessional approach to SDM and discuss each model's relevance to nursing practice. Walker and Avant's theory analysis approach was used. Three conceptual models were eligible. For all models, the decision-making process was considered iterative. The development process was described for 1 model. All models were logical, parsimonious, and generalizable. One was supported by empirical testing. No model described how partnerships are enacted to achieve interprofessional SDM. Also, there was limited articulation as to how nurses' roles and contributions differ from other team members. This theory analysis highlights the need for a model that explains how partnerships among interprofessional team members are enacted to better understand the operationalization of interprofessional SDM. Implications for nursing practice at all system levels are offered and supported by the 3 models.

  11. A new approach to hazardous materials transportation risk analysis: decision modeling to identify critical variables.

    PubMed

    Clark, Renee M; Besterfield-Sacre, Mary E

    2009-03-01

    We take a novel approach to analyzing hazardous materials transportation risk in this research. Previous studies analyzed this risk from an operations research (OR) or quantitative risk assessment (QRA) perspective by minimizing or calculating risk along a transport route. Further, even though the majority of incidents occur when containers are unloaded, the research has not focused on transportation-related activities, including container loading and unloading. In this work, we developed a decision model of a hazardous materials release during unloading using actual data and an exploratory data modeling approach. Previous studies have had a theoretical perspective in terms of identifying and advancing the key variables related to this risk, and there has not been a focus on probability and statistics-based approaches for doing this. Our decision model empirically identifies the critical variables using an exploratory methodology for a large, highly categorical database involving latent class analysis (LCA), loglinear modeling, and Bayesian networking. Our model identified the most influential variables and countermeasures for two consequences of a hazmat incident, dollar loss and release quantity, and is one of the first models to do this. The most influential variables were found to be related to the failure of the container. In addition to analyzing hazmat risk, our methodology can be used to develop data-driven models for strategic decision making in other domains involving risk.

  12. A new approach to hazardous materials transportation risk analysis: decision modeling to identify critical variables.

    PubMed

    Clark, Renee M; Besterfield-Sacre, Mary E

    2009-03-01

    We take a novel approach to analyzing hazardous materials transportation risk in this research. Previous studies analyzed this risk from an operations research (OR) or quantitative risk assessment (QRA) perspective by minimizing or calculating risk along a transport route. Further, even though the majority of incidents occur when containers are unloaded, the research has not focused on transportation-related activities, including container loading and unloading. In this work, we developed a decision model of a hazardous materials release during unloading using actual data and an exploratory data modeling approach. Previous studies have had a theoretical perspective in terms of identifying and advancing the key variables related to this risk, and there has not been a focus on probability and statistics-based approaches for doing this. Our decision model empirically identifies the critical variables using an exploratory methodology for a large, highly categorical database involving latent class analysis (LCA), loglinear modeling, and Bayesian networking. Our model identified the most influential variables and countermeasures for two consequences of a hazmat incident, dollar loss and release quantity, and is one of the first models to do this. The most influential variables were found to be related to the failure of the container. In addition to analyzing hazmat risk, our methodology can be used to develop data-driven models for strategic decision making in other domains involving risk. PMID:19087232

  13. Helping patients make choices about breast reconstruction: a decision analysis approach.

    PubMed

    Sun, Clement S; Cantor, Scott B; Reece, Gregory P; Fingeret, Michelle C; Crosby, Melissa A; Markey, Mia K

    2014-10-01

    Decision analysis can help breast reconstruction patients and their surgeons to methodically evaluate clinical alternatives and make hard decisions. The purpose of this article is to help plastic surgeons guide patients in making decisions though a case study in breast reconstruction. By making good decisions, patient outcomes may be improved. This article aims to illustrate decision analysis techniques from the patient perspective, with an emphasis on her values and preferences. The authors introduce normative decision-making through a fictional breast reconstruction patient and systematically build the decision basis to help her make a good decision. The authors broadly identify alternatives of breast reconstruction, propose types of outcomes that the patient should consider, discuss sources of probabilistic information and outcome values, and demonstrate how to make a good decision. The concepts presented here may be extended to other shared decision-making problems in plastic and reconstructive surgery. In addition, the authors discuss how sensitivity analysis may test the robustness of the decision and how to evaluate the quality of decisions. The authors also present tools to help implement these concepts in practice. Finally, the authors examine limitations that hamper adoption of patient decision analysis in reconstructive surgery and health care in general. In particular, the authors emphasize the need for routine collection of quality-of-life information, out-of-pocket expense, and recovery time.

  14. A decision-theory approach to interpretable set analysis for high-dimensional data.

    PubMed

    Boca, Simina M; Bravo, Héctor Céorrada; Caffo, Brian; Leek, Jeffrey T; Parmigiani, Giovanni

    2013-09-01

    A key problem in high-dimensional significance analysis is to find pre-defined sets that show enrichment for a statistical signal of interest; the classic example is the enrichment of gene sets for differentially expressed genes. Here, we propose a new decision-theory approach to the analysis of gene sets which focuses on estimating the fraction of non-null variables in a set. We introduce the idea of "atoms," non-overlapping sets based on the original pre-defined set annotations. Our approach focuses on finding the union of atoms that minimizes a weighted average of the number of false discoveries and missed discoveries. We introduce a new false discovery rate for sets, called the atomic false discovery rate (afdr), and prove that the optimal estimator in our decision-theory framework is to threshold the afdr. These results provide a coherent and interpretable framework for the analysis of sets that addresses the key issues of overlapping annotations and difficulty in interpreting p values in both competitive and self-contained tests. We illustrate our method and compare it to a popular existing method using simulated examples, as well as gene-set and brain ROI data analyses.

  15. A decision-theory approach to interpretable set analysis for high-dimensional data.

    PubMed

    Boca, Simina M; Bravo, Héctor Céorrada; Caffo, Brian; Leek, Jeffrey T; Parmigiani, Giovanni

    2013-09-01

    A key problem in high-dimensional significance analysis is to find pre-defined sets that show enrichment for a statistical signal of interest; the classic example is the enrichment of gene sets for differentially expressed genes. Here, we propose a new decision-theory approach to the analysis of gene sets which focuses on estimating the fraction of non-null variables in a set. We introduce the idea of "atoms," non-overlapping sets based on the original pre-defined set annotations. Our approach focuses on finding the union of atoms that minimizes a weighted average of the number of false discoveries and missed discoveries. We introduce a new false discovery rate for sets, called the atomic false discovery rate (afdr), and prove that the optimal estimator in our decision-theory framework is to threshold the afdr. These results provide a coherent and interpretable framework for the analysis of sets that addresses the key issues of overlapping annotations and difficulty in interpreting p values in both competitive and self-contained tests. We illustrate our method and compare it to a popular existing method using simulated examples, as well as gene-set and brain ROI data analyses. PMID:23909925

  16. Adapting a GIS-Based Multicriteria Decision Analysis Approach for Evaluating New Power Generating Sites

    SciTech Connect

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Blevins, Brandon R; Jochem, Warren C; Mays, Gary T; Belles, Randy; Hadley, Stanton W; Harrison, Thomas J; Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Neish, Bradley S; Rose, Amy N

    2012-01-01

    There is a growing need to site new power generating plants that use cleaner energy sources due to increased regulations on air and water pollution and a sociopolitical desire to develop more clean energy sources. To assist utility and energy companies as well as policy-makers in evaluating potential areas for siting new plants in the contiguous United States, a geographic information system (GIS)-based multicriteria decision analysis approach is presented in this paper. The presented approach has led to the development of the Oak Ridge Siting Analysis for power Generation Expansion (OR-SAGE) tool. The tool takes inputs such as population growth, water availability, environmental indicators, and tectonic and geological hazards to provide an in-depth analysis for siting options. To the utility and energy companies, the tool can quickly and effectively provide feedback on land suitability based on technology specific inputs. However, the tool does not replace the required detailed evaluation of candidate sites. To the policy-makers, the tool provides the ability to analyze the impacts of future energy technology while balancing competing resource use.

  17. An Alternative Methodological Approach for Cost-Effectiveness Analysis and Decision Making in Genomic Medicine.

    PubMed

    Fragoulakis, Vasilios; Mitropoulou, Christina; van Schaik, Ron H; Maniadakis, Nikolaos; Patrinos, George P

    2016-05-01

    Genomic Medicine aims to improve therapeutic interventions and diagnostics, the quality of life of patients, but also to rationalize healthcare costs. To reach this goal, careful assessment and identification of evidence gaps for public health genomics priorities are required so that a more efficient healthcare environment is created. Here, we propose a public health genomics-driven approach to adjust the classical healthcare decision making process with an alternative methodological approach of cost-effectiveness analysis, which is particularly helpful for genomic medicine interventions. By combining classical cost-effectiveness analysis with budget constraints, social preferences, and patient ethics, we demonstrate the application of this model, the Genome Economics Model (GEM), based on a previously reported genome-guided intervention from a developing country environment. The model and the attendant rationale provide a practical guide by which all major healthcare stakeholders could ensure the sustainability of funding for genome-guided interventions, their adoption and coverage by health insurance funds, and prioritization of Genomic Medicine research, development, and innovation, given the restriction of budgets, particularly in developing countries and low-income healthcare settings in developed countries. The implications of the GEM for the policy makers interested in Genomic Medicine and new health technology and innovation assessment are also discussed. PMID:27096406

  18. Prenatal Diagnosis: A Directive Approach to Genetic Counseling Using Decision Analysis 1

    PubMed Central

    Pauker, Susan P.; Pauker, Stephen G.

    1977-01-01

    The decision which prospective parents face concerning mid-trimester amniocentesis for prenatal diagnosis was examined by decision analysis. The prospective parents' decision depends on the likelihood of the birth of a child affected by a genetic disorder, the risk of amniocentesis, and the probability that the diagnoses provided by the amniocentesis will be correct. The couple's decision must also depend on their attitudes toward each possible outcome. The likelihoods of the outcomes can be obtained from appropriate medical consultation, while the relative costs or burdens of the outcomes should be obtained from the prospective parents. A truly informed decision for this couple can then be formulated from these probabilities and values, thus allowing genetic counseling to be more directive. The technique is illustrated for the prenatal diagnosis of Down's syndrome, meningomyelocele, and Duchenne muscular dystrophy. PMID:142379

  19. A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

    2014-10-01

    Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in

  20. A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

    2014-10-01

    Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in

  1. Multi-criteria multi-stakeholder decision analysis using a fuzzy-stochastic approach for hydrosystem management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Subagadis, Y. H.; Schütze, N.; Grundmann, J.

    2014-09-01

    The conventional methods used to solve multi-criteria multi-stakeholder problems are less strongly formulated, as they normally incorporate only homogeneous information at a time and suggest aggregating objectives of different decision-makers avoiding water-society interactions. In this contribution, Multi-Criteria Group Decision Analysis (MCGDA) using a fuzzy-stochastic approach has been proposed to rank a set of alternatives in water management decisions incorporating heterogeneous information under uncertainty. The decision making framework takes hydrologically, environmentally, and socio-economically motivated conflicting objectives into consideration. The criteria related to the performance of the physical system are optimized using multi-criteria simulation-based optimization, and fuzzy linguistic quantifiers have been used to evaluate subjective criteria and to assess stakeholders' degree of optimism. The proposed methodology is applied to find effective and robust intervention strategies for the management of a coastal hydrosystem affected by saltwater intrusion due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture and municipal use. Preliminary results show that the MCGDA based on a fuzzy-stochastic approach gives useful support for robust decision-making and is sensitive to the decision makers' degree of optimism.

  2. Initial decision analysis (IDA): a participatory approach for developing resource policies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonnicksen, Thomas M.

    1985-09-01

    Initial decision analysis (IDA) is a microcomputer based decision-making technique that is organized so that a rational, step-by-step, procedure can be followed to use existing knowledge to develop resource policies. The IDA process provides a systematic way for participants to define their own problem and to explore jointly alternative solutions. IDA is particularly suited to resolving complex problems involving many groups with conflicting interests. IDA is illustrated with data from the US Forest Service's Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the 1985 to 2030 Resource Planning Act Program for the United States. Four policy options are evaluated: maximization of timber production, of grazing, and of wilderness, and a dominant use policy that concentrates timber management on productive sites. Policies were evaluated using a new mathematical satisficing procedure. Mathematical satisficing of simulated policy consequences showed that, for selected performance standards, current RPA policies are superior to the four alternative policies examined.

  3. Outline of a new approach to the analysis of complex systems and decision processes.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zadeh, L. A.

    1973-01-01

    Development of a conceptual framework for dealing with systems which are too complex or too ill-defined to admit of precise quantitative analysis. The approach outlined is based on the premise that the key elements in human thinking are not numbers, but labels of fuzzy sets - i.e., classes of objects in which the transition from membership to nonmembership is gradual rather than abrupt. The approach in question has three main distinguishing features - namely, the use of so-called 'linguistic' variables in place of or in addition to numerical variables, the characterization of simple relations between variables by conditional fuzzy statements, and the characterization of complex relations by fuzzy algorithms.

  4. Selection of remedial alternatives for mine sites: a multicriteria decision analysis approach.

    PubMed

    Betrie, Getnet D; Sadiq, Rehan; Morin, Kevin A; Tesfamariam, Solomon

    2013-04-15

    The selection of remedial alternatives for mine sites is a complex task because it involves multiple criteria and often with conflicting objectives. However, an existing framework used to select remedial alternatives lacks multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) aids and does not consider uncertainty in the selection of alternatives. The objective of this paper is to improve the existing framework by introducing deterministic and probabilistic MCDA methods. The Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) methods have been implemented in this study. The MCDA analysis involves processing inputs to the PROMETHEE methods that are identifying the alternatives, defining the criteria, defining the criteria weights using analytical hierarchical process (AHP), defining the probability distribution of criteria weights, and conducting Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS); running the PROMETHEE methods using these inputs; and conducting a sensitivity analysis. A case study was presented to demonstrate the improved framework at a mine site. The results showed that the improved framework provides a reliable way of selecting remedial alternatives as well as quantifying the impact of different criteria on selecting alternatives.

  5. A Risk-Constrained Multi-Stage Decision Making Approach to the Architectural Analysis of Mars Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kuwata, Yoshiaki; Pavone, Marco; Balaram, J. (Bob)

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a novel risk-constrained multi-stage decision making approach to the architectural analysis of planetary rover missions. In particular, focusing on a 2018 Mars rover concept, which was considered as part of a potential Mars Sample Return campaign, we model the entry, descent, and landing (EDL) phase and the rover traverse phase as four sequential decision-making stages. The problem is to find a sequence of divert and driving maneuvers so that the rover drive is minimized and the probability of a mission failure (e.g., due to a failed landing) is below a user specified bound. By solving this problem for several different values of the model parameters (e.g., divert authority), this approach enables rigorous, accurate and systematic trade-offs for the EDL system vs. the mobility system, and, more in general, cross-domain trade-offs for the different phases of a space mission. The overall optimization problem can be seen as a chance-constrained dynamic programming problem, with the additional complexity that 1) in some stages the disturbances do not have any probabilistic characterization, and 2) the state space is extremely large (i.e, hundreds of millions of states for trade-offs with high-resolution Martian maps). To this purpose, we solve the problem by performing an unconventional combination of average and minimax cost analysis and by leveraging high efficient computation tools from the image processing community. Preliminary trade-off results are presented.

  6. A GIS based spatially-explicit sensitivity and uncertainty analysis approach for multi-criteria decision analysis☆

    PubMed Central

    Feizizadeh, Bakhtiar; Jankowski, Piotr; Blaschke, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    GIS multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques are increasingly used in landslide susceptibility mapping for the prediction of future hazards, land use planning, as well as for hazard preparedness. However, the uncertainties associated with MCDA techniques are inevitable and model outcomes are open to multiple types of uncertainty. In this paper, we present a systematic approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. We access the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility maps produced with GIS-MCDA techniques. A new spatially-explicit approach and Dempster–Shafer Theory (DST) are employed to assess the uncertainties associated with two MCDA techniques, namely Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) implemented in GIS. The methodology is composed of three different phases. First, weights are computed to express the relative importance of factors (criteria) for landslide susceptibility. Next, the uncertainty and sensitivity of landslide susceptibility is analyzed as a function of weights using Monte Carlo Simulation and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Finally, the results are validated using a landslide inventory database and by applying DST. The comparisons of the obtained landslide susceptibility maps of both MCDA techniques with known landslides show that the AHP outperforms OWA. However, the OWA-generated landslide susceptibility map shows lower uncertainty than the AHP-generated map. The results demonstrate that further improvement in the accuracy of GIS-based MCDA can be achieved by employing an integrated uncertainty–sensitivity analysis approach, in which the uncertainty of landslide susceptibility model is decomposed and attributed to model's criteria weights. PMID:25843987

  7. An approach for automated fault diagnosis based on a fuzzy decision tree and boundary analysis of a reconstructed phase space.

    PubMed

    Aydin, Ilhan; Karakose, Mehmet; Akin, Erhan

    2014-03-01

    Although reconstructed phase space is one of the most powerful methods for analyzing a time series, it can fail in fault diagnosis of an induction motor when the appropriate pre-processing is not performed. Therefore, boundary analysis based a new feature extraction method in phase space is proposed for diagnosis of induction motor faults. The proposed approach requires the measurement of one phase current signal to construct the phase space representation. Each phase space is converted into an image, and the boundary of each image is extracted by a boundary detection algorithm. A fuzzy decision tree has been designed to detect broken rotor bars and broken connector faults. The results indicate that the proposed approach has a higher recognition rate than other methods on the same dataset. PMID:24296116

  8. Analysis of the impact of recreational trail usage for prioritising management decisions: a regression tree approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tomczyk, Aleksandra; Ewertowski, Marek; White, Piran; Kasprzak, Leszek

    2016-04-01

    The dual role of many Protected Natural Areas in providing benefits for both conservation and recreation poses challenges for management. Although recreation-based damage to ecosystems can occur very quickly, restoration can take many years. The protection of conservation interests at the same as providing for recreation requires decisions to be made about how to prioritise and direct management actions. Trails are commonly used to divert visitors from the most important areas of a site, but high visitor pressure can lead to increases in trail width and a concomitant increase in soil erosion. Here we use detailed field data on condition of recreational trails in Gorce National Park, Poland, as the basis for a regression tree analysis to determine the factors influencing trail deterioration, and link specific trail impacts with environmental, use related and managerial factors. We distinguished 12 types of trails, characterised by four levels of degradation: (1) trails with an acceptable level of degradation; (2) threatened trails; (3) damaged trails; and (4) heavily damaged trails. Damaged trails were the most vulnerable of all trails and should be prioritised for appropriate conservation and restoration. We also proposed five types of monitoring of recreational trail conditions: (1) rapid inventory of negative impacts; (2) monitoring visitor numbers and variation in type of use; (3) change-oriented monitoring focusing on sections of trail which were subjected to changes in type or level of use or subjected to extreme weather events; (4) monitoring of dynamics of trail conditions; and (5) full assessment of trail conditions, to be carried out every 10-15 years. The application of the proposed framework can enhance the ability of Park managers to prioritise their trail management activities, enhancing trail conditions and visitor safety, while minimising adverse impacts on the conservation value of the ecosystem. A.M.T. was supported by the Polish Ministry of

  9. An Analysis of the EPA Report on Pipeline Renewal Decision Making Tools and Approaches

    EPA Science Inventory

    Few DSS are commercially available for technology selection as most utilities make decisions based on in-house and consultant expertise (Matthews et al., 2011). This review presents some of the models proposed over the past 15 years for selecting technologies in the U.S. and wor...

  10. Analysis of Wastewater and Water System Renewal Decision-Making Tools and Approaches

    EPA Science Inventory

    In regards to the development of software for decision support for pipeline renewal, most of the attention to date has been paid to the development of asset management models which help an owner decide on which portions of a system to prioritize for needed actions. There has not ...

  11. Decision Analysis Using Spreadsheets.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sounderpandian, Jayavel

    1989-01-01

    Discussion of decision analysis and its importance in a business curriculum focuses on the use of spreadsheets instead of commercial software packages for computer assisted instruction. A hypothetical example is given of a company drilling for oil, and suggestions are provided for classroom exercises using spreadsheets. (seven references) (LRW)

  12. SCORE: a novel multi-criteria decision analysis approach to assessing the sustainability of contaminated land remediation.

    PubMed

    Rosén, Lars; Back, Pär-Erik; Söderqvist, Tore; Norrman, Jenny; Brinkhoff, Petra; Norberg, Tommy; Volchko, Yevheniya; Norin, Malin; Bergknut, Magnus; Döberl, Gernot

    2015-04-01

    The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method provides for a comprehensive and transparent basis for performing sustainability assessments. Development of a relevant MCDA-method requires consideration of a number of key issues, e.g. (a) definition of assessment boundaries, (b) definition of performance scales, both temporal and spatial, (c) selection of relevant criteria (indicators) that facilitate a comprehensive sustainability assessment while avoiding double-counting of effects, and (d) handling of uncertainties. Adding to the complexity is the typically wide variety of inputs, including quantifications based on existing data, expert judgements, and opinions expressed in interviews. The SCORE (Sustainable Choice Of REmediation) MCDA-method was developed to provide a transparent assessment of the sustainability of possible remediation alternatives for contaminated sites relative to a reference alternative, considering key criteria in the economic, environmental, and social sustainability domains. The criteria were identified based on literature studies, interviews and focus-group meetings. SCORE combines a linear additive model to rank the alternatives with a non-compensatory approach to identify alternatives regarded as non-sustainable. The key strengths of the SCORE method are as follows: a framework that at its core is designed to be flexible and transparent; the possibility to integrate both quantitative and qualitative estimations on criteria; its ability, unlike other sustainability assessment tools used in industry and academia, to allow for the alteration of boundary conditions where necessary; the inclusion of a full uncertainty analysis of the results, using Monte Carlo simulation; and a structure that allows preferences and opinions of involved stakeholders to be openly integrated into the analysis. A major insight from practical application of SCORE is that its most important contribution may be that it initiates a process where criteria

  13. SCORE: a novel multi-criteria decision analysis approach to assessing the sustainability of contaminated land remediation.

    PubMed

    Rosén, Lars; Back, Pär-Erik; Söderqvist, Tore; Norrman, Jenny; Brinkhoff, Petra; Norberg, Tommy; Volchko, Yevheniya; Norin, Malin; Bergknut, Magnus; Döberl, Gernot

    2015-04-01

    The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method provides for a comprehensive and transparent basis for performing sustainability assessments. Development of a relevant MCDA-method requires consideration of a number of key issues, e.g. (a) definition of assessment boundaries, (b) definition of performance scales, both temporal and spatial, (c) selection of relevant criteria (indicators) that facilitate a comprehensive sustainability assessment while avoiding double-counting of effects, and (d) handling of uncertainties. Adding to the complexity is the typically wide variety of inputs, including quantifications based on existing data, expert judgements, and opinions expressed in interviews. The SCORE (Sustainable Choice Of REmediation) MCDA-method was developed to provide a transparent assessment of the sustainability of possible remediation alternatives for contaminated sites relative to a reference alternative, considering key criteria in the economic, environmental, and social sustainability domains. The criteria were identified based on literature studies, interviews and focus-group meetings. SCORE combines a linear additive model to rank the alternatives with a non-compensatory approach to identify alternatives regarded as non-sustainable. The key strengths of the SCORE method are as follows: a framework that at its core is designed to be flexible and transparent; the possibility to integrate both quantitative and qualitative estimations on criteria; its ability, unlike other sustainability assessment tools used in industry and academia, to allow for the alteration of boundary conditions where necessary; the inclusion of a full uncertainty analysis of the results, using Monte Carlo simulation; and a structure that allows preferences and opinions of involved stakeholders to be openly integrated into the analysis. A major insight from practical application of SCORE is that its most important contribution may be that it initiates a process where criteria

  14. The basics of decision analysis.

    PubMed

    Kent, D L

    1992-12-01

    Historically, decision analysis (DA) arose from economics, psychology, and statistics. Medical and dental applications have developed over the past two decades. While decision psychology explores how people make their decisions, the DA process involves construction of a model and development of insights into the strengths and uncertainties about recommendations derived from analysis of model outputs. Uncertainties are represented as probabilities and values are assigned to desirable or adverse outcomes according to preferences expressed by the decision maker. The model unifies probabilities and values by calculation of the expected value for each decision choice. The decision maker can improve his or her insight into uncertainties in the model by conducting sensitivity analyses, and can take action based on this improved insight. The DA process is illustrated using the decision to take or skip influenza vaccination. People's decision making behavior for this problem has also been analyzed using methods from decision psychology. Distinctions between clinical DA and cost-effectiveness analysis are given, as are caveats about especially complicated subtopics in decision analysis for medical problems. In closing, opportunities for further study of decision analysis are presented. PMID:1487581

  15. Probabilistic approach to decision making under uncertainty during volcanic crises. Retrospective analysis of the 2011 eruption of El Hierro, in the Canary Islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobradelo, Rosa; Martí, Joan; Kilburn, Christopher; López, Carmen

    2014-05-01

    Understanding the potential evolution of a volcanic crisis is crucial to improving the design of effective mitigation strategies. This is especially the case for volcanoes close to densely-populated regions, where inappropriate decisions may trigger widespread loss of life, economic disruption and public distress. An outstanding goal for improving the management of volcanic crises, therefore, is to develop objective, real-time methodologies for evaluating how an emergency will develop and how scientists communicate with decision makers. Here we present a new model BADEMO (Bayesian Decision Model) that applies a general and flexible, probabilistic approach to managing volcanic crises. The model combines the hazard and risk factors that decision makers need for a holistic analysis of a volcanic crisis. These factors include eruption scenarios and their probabilities of occurrence, the vulnerability of populations and their activities, and the costs of false alarms and failed forecasts. The model can be implemented before an emergency, to identify actions for reducing the vulnerability of a district; during an emergency, to identify the optimum mitigating actions and how these may change as new information is obtained; and after an emergency, to assess the effectiveness of a mitigating response and, from the results, to improve strategies before another crisis occurs. As illustrated by a retrospective analysis of the 2011 eruption of El Hierro, in the Canary Islands, BADEMO provides the basis for quantifying the uncertainty associated with each recommended action as an emergency evolves, and serves as a mechanism for improving communications between scientists and decision makers.

  16. The decision tree approach to classification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wu, C.; Landgrebe, D. A.; Swain, P. H.

    1975-01-01

    A class of multistage decision tree classifiers is proposed and studied relative to the classification of multispectral remotely sensed data. The decision tree classifiers are shown to have the potential for improving both the classification accuracy and the computation efficiency. Dimensionality in pattern recognition is discussed and two theorems on the lower bound of logic computation for multiclass classification are derived. The automatic or optimization approach is emphasized. Experimental results on real data are reported, which clearly demonstrate the usefulness of decision tree classifiers.

  17. Multiscale analysis of collective motion and decision-making in swarms: an advection-diffusion equation with memory approach.

    PubMed

    Raghib, M; Levin, S A; Kevrekidis, I G

    2010-06-01

    We propose a (time) multiscale method for the coarse-grained analysis of collective motion and decision-making in self-propelled particle models of swarms comprising a mixture of 'naïve' and 'informed' individuals. The method is based on projecting the particle configuration onto a single 'meta-particle' that consists of the elongation of the flock together with the mean group velocity and position. We find that the collective states can be associated with the transient and asymptotic transport properties of the random walk followed by the meta-particle, which we assume follows a continuous time random walk (CTRW). These properties can be accurately predicted at the macroscopic level by an advection-diffusion equation with memory (ADEM) whose parameters are obtained from a mean group velocity time series obtained from a single simulation run of the individual-based model.

  18. 2D Hydrodynamic Based Logic Modeling Tool for River Restoration Decision Analysis: A Quantitative Approach to Project Prioritization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bandrowski, D.; Lai, Y.; Bradley, N.; Gaeuman, D. A.; Murauskas, J.; Som, N. A.; Martin, A.; Goodman, D.; Alvarez, J.

    2014-12-01

    In the field of river restoration sciences there is a growing need for analytical modeling tools and quantitative processes to help identify and prioritize project sites. 2D hydraulic models have become more common in recent years and with the availability of robust data sets and computing technology, it is now possible to evaluate large river systems at the reach scale. The Trinity River Restoration Program is now analyzing a 40 mile segment of the Trinity River to determine priority and implementation sequencing for its Phase II rehabilitation projects. A comprehensive approach and quantitative tool has recently been developed to analyze this complex river system referred to as: 2D-Hydrodynamic Based Logic Modeling (2D-HBLM). This tool utilizes various hydraulic output parameters combined with biological, ecological, and physical metrics at user-defined spatial scales. These metrics and their associated algorithms are the underpinnings of the 2D-HBLM habitat module used to evaluate geomorphic characteristics, riverine processes, and habitat complexity. The habitat metrics are further integrated into a comprehensive Logic Model framework to perform statistical analyses to assess project prioritization. The Logic Model will analyze various potential project sites by evaluating connectivity using principal component methods. The 2D-HBLM tool will help inform management and decision makers by using a quantitative process to optimize desired response variables with balancing important limiting factors in determining the highest priority locations within the river corridor to implement restoration projects. Effective river restoration prioritization starts with well-crafted goals that identify the biological objectives, address underlying causes of habitat change, and recognizes that social, economic, and land use limiting factors may constrain restoration options (Bechie et. al. 2008). Applying natural resources management actions, like restoration prioritization, is

  19. Latent effects decision analysis

    DOEpatents

    Cooper, J. Arlin; Werner, Paul W.

    2004-08-24

    Latent effects on a system are broken down into components ranging from those far removed in time from the system under study (latent) to those which closely effect changes in the system. Each component is provided with weighted inputs either by a user or from outputs of other components. A non-linear mathematical process known as `soft aggregation` is performed on the inputs to each component to provide information relating to the component. This information is combined in decreasing order of latency to the system to provide a quantifiable measure of an attribute of a system (e.g., safety) or to test hypotheses (e.g., for forensic deduction or decisions about various system design options).

  20. Multicriteria decision analysis in oncology

    PubMed Central

    Adunlin, Georges; Diaby, Vakaramoko; Montero, Alberto J.; Xiao, Hong

    2015-01-01

    Background There has been a growing interest in the development and application of alternative decision-making frameworks within health care, including multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). Even though the literature includes several reviews on MCDA methods, applications of MCDA in oncology are lacking. Aim The aim of this paper is to discuss a rationale for the use of MCDA in oncology. In this context, the following research question emerged: How can MCDA be used to develop a clinical decision support tool in oncology? Methods In this paper, a brief background on decision making is presented, followed by an overview of MCDA methods and process. The paper discusses some applications of MCDA, proposes research opportunities in the context of oncology and presents an illustrative example of how MCDA can be applied to oncology. Findings Decisions in oncology involve trade-offs between possible benefits and harms. MCDA can help analyse trade-off preferences. A wide range of MCDA methods exist. Each method has its strengths and weaknesses. Choosing the appropriate method varies depending on the source and nature of information used to inform decision making. The literature review identified eight studies. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was the most often used method in the identified studies. Conclusion Overall, MCDA appears to be a promising tool that can be used to assist clinical decision making in oncology. Nonetheless, field testing is desirable before MCDA becomes an established decision-making tool in this field. PMID:24635949

  1. Initial Decision and Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-29

    Decision and Risk Analysis capabilities will be developed for industry consideration and possible adoption within Year 1. These tools will provide a methodology for merging qualitative ranking of technology maturity and acknowledged risk contributors with quantitative metrics that drive investment decision processes. Methods and tools will be initially introduced as applications to the A650.1 case study, but modular spreadsheets and analysis routines will be offered to industry collaborators as soon as possible to stimulate user feedback and co-development opportunities.

  2. A decision theoretical approach for diffusion promotion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ding, Fei; Liu, Yun

    2009-09-01

    In order to maximize cost efficiency from scarce marketing resources, marketers are facing the problem of which group of consumers to target for promotions. We propose to use a decision theoretical approach to model this strategic situation. According to one promotion model that we develop, marketers balance between probabilities of successful persuasion and the expected profits on a diffusion scale, before making their decisions. In the other promotion model, the cost for identifying influence information is considered, and marketers are allowed to ignore individual heterogeneity. We apply the proposed approach to two threshold influence models, evaluate the utility of each promotion action, and provide discussions about the best strategy. Our results show that efforts for targeting influentials or easily influenced people might be redundant under some conditions.

  3. Ethical Decision-Making and Ethical Responding: An Analysis and Critique of Various Approaches through Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sun, Jing-Ping

    2011-01-01

    For three decades, the scholars in the area of values in educational administration and the moral dimension of leadership have conceptually argued for and empirically explored the centrality of values to educational administration. This centrality may be expressed as the roles and nature of values in decision-making and conflict resolution.…

  4. Multi-criteria decision analysis as an innovative approach to managing zoonoses: results from a study on Lyme disease in Canada

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Zoonoses are a growing international threat interacting at the human-animal-environment interface and call for transdisciplinary and multi-sectoral approaches in order to achieve effective disease management. The recent emergence of Lyme disease in Quebec, Canada is a good example of a complex health issue for which the public health sector must find protective interventions. Traditional preventive and control interventions can have important environmental, social and economic impacts and as a result, decision-making requires a systems approach capable of integrating these multiple aspects of interventions. This paper presents the results from a study of a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach for the management of Lyme disease in Quebec, Canada. MCDA methods allow a comparison of interventions or alternatives based on multiple criteria. Methods MCDA models were developed to assess various prevention and control decision criteria pertinent to a comprehensive management of Lyme disease: a first model was developed for surveillance interventions and a second was developed for control interventions. Multi-criteria analyses were conducted under two epidemiological scenarios: a disease emergence scenario and an epidemic scenario. Results In general, we observed a good level of agreement between stakeholders. For the surveillance model, the three preferred interventions were: active surveillance of vectors by flagging or dragging, active surveillance of vectors by trapping of small rodents and passive surveillance of vectors of human origin. For the control interventions model, basic preventive communications, human vaccination and small scale landscaping were the three preferred interventions. Scenarios were found to only have a small effect on the group ranking of interventions in the control model. Conclusions MCDA was used to structure key decision criteria and capture the complexity of Lyme disease management. This facilitated the

  5. A Structured approach to incidental take decision making

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McGowan, Conor P.

    2013-01-01

    Decision making related to incidental take of endangered species under U.S. law lends itself well to a structured decision making approach. Incidental take is the permitted killing, harming, or harassing of a protected species under the law as long as that harm is incidental to an otherwise lawful activity and does not “reduce appreciably the probability of survival and recovery in the wild.” There has been inconsistency in the process used for determining incidental take allowances across species and across time for the same species, and structured decision making has been proposed to improve decision making. I use an example decision analysis to demonstrate the process and its applicability to incidental take decisions, even under significant demographic uncertainty and multiple, competing objectives. I define the example problem, present an objectives statement and a value function, use a simulation model to assess the consequences of a set of management actions, and evaluate the tradeoffs among the different actions. The approach results in transparent and repeatable decisions.

  6. A Structured Approach to Incidental Take Decision Making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGowan, Conor P.

    2013-01-01

    Decision making related to incidental take of endangered species under U.S. law lends itself well to a structured decision making approach. Incidental take is the permitted killing, harming, or harassing of a protected species under the law as long as that harm is incidental to an otherwise lawful activity and does not "reduce appreciably the probability of survival and recovery in the wild." There has been inconsistency in the process used for determining incidental take allowances across species and across time for the same species, and structured decision making has been proposed to improve decision making. I use an example decision analysis to demonstrate the process and its applicability to incidental take decisions, even under significant demographic uncertainty and multiple, competing objectives. I define the example problem, present an objectives statement and a value function, use a simulation model to assess the consequences of a set of management actions, and evaluate the tradeoffs among the different actions. The approach results in transparent and repeatable decisions.

  7. Assessment of New Approaches in Geothermal Exploration Decision Making: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Akar, S.; Young, K. R.

    2015-02-01

    Geothermal exploration projects have significant amount of risk associated with uncertainties encountered in the discovery of the geothermal resource. Understanding when and how to proceed in an exploration program, and when to walk away from a site, are two of the largest challenges for increased geothermal deployment. Current methodologies for exploration decision making is left to subjective by subjective expert opinion which can be incorrectly biased by expertise (e.g. geochemistry, geophysics), geographic location of focus, and the assumed conceptual model. The aim of this project is to develop a methodology for more objective geothermal exploration decision making at a given location, including go-no-go decision points to help developers and investors decide when to give up on a location. In this scope, two different approaches are investigated: 1) value of information analysis (VOIA) which is used for evaluating and quantifying the value of a data before they are purchased, and 2) enthalpy-based exploration targeting based on reservoir size, temperature gradient estimates, and internal rate of return (IRR). The first approach, VOIA, aims to identify the value of a particular data when making decisions with an uncertain outcome. This approach targets the pre-drilling phase of exploration. These estimated VOIs are highly affected by the size of the project and still have a high degree of subjectivity in assignment of probabilities. The second approach, exploration targeting, is focused on decision making during the drilling phase. It starts with a basic geothermal project definition that includes target and minimum required production capacity and initial budgeting for exploration phases. Then, it uses average temperature gradient, reservoir temperature estimates, and production capacity to define targets and go/no-go limits. The decision analysis in this approach is based on achieving a minimum IRR at each phase of the project. This second approach was

  8. Decision-problem state analysis methodology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dieterly, D. L.

    1980-01-01

    A methodology for analyzing a decision-problem state is presented. The methodology is based on the analysis of an incident in terms of the set of decision-problem conditions encountered. By decomposing the events that preceded an unwanted outcome, such as an accident, into the set of decision-problem conditions that were resolved, a more comprehensive understanding is possible. All human-error accidents are not caused by faulty decision-problem resolutions, but it appears to be one of the major areas of accidents cited in the literature. A three-phase methodology is presented which accommodates a wide spectrum of events. It allows for a systems content analysis of the available data to establish: (1) the resolutions made, (2) alternatives not considered, (3) resolutions missed, and (4) possible conditions not considered. The product is a map of the decision-problem conditions that were encountered as well as a projected, assumed set of conditions that should have been considered. The application of this methodology introduces a systematic approach to decomposing the events that transpired prior to the accident. The initial emphasis is on decision and problem resolution. The technique allows for a standardized method of accident into a scenario which may used for review or the development of a training simulation.

  9. ALTERNATIVE FUTURES ANALYSIS: A FRAMEWORK FOR COMMUNITY DECISION-MAKING

    EPA Science Inventory

    Alternative futures analysis is an assessment approach designed to inform community decisions about land and water use. We conducted an alternative futures analysis in Oregon's Willamette River Basin. Three alternative future landscapes for the year 2050 were depicted and compare...

  10. Robust Decision Making Approach to Managing Water Resource Risks (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lempert, R.

    2010-12-01

    The IPCC and US National Academies of Science have recommended iterative risk management as the best approach for water management and many other types of climate-related decisions. Such an approach does not rely on a single set of judgments at any one time but rather actively updates and refines strategies as new information emerges. In addition, the approach emphasizes that a portfolio of different types of responses, rather than any single action, often provides the best means to manage uncertainty. Implementing an iterative risk management approach can however prove difficult in actual decision support applications. This talk will suggest that robust decision making (RDM) provides a particularly useful set of quantitative methods for implementing iterative risk management. This RDM approach is currently being used in a wide variety of water management applications. RDM employs three key concepts that differentiate it from most types of probabilistic risk analysis: 1) characterizing uncertainty with multiple views of the future (which can include sets of probability distributions) rather than a single probabilistic best-estimate, 2) employing a robustness rather than an optimality criterion to assess alternative policies, and 3) organizing the analysis with a vulnerability and response option framework, rather than a predict-then-act framework. This talk will summarize the RDM approach, describe its use in several different types of water management applications, and compare the results to those obtained with other methods.

  11. Network approaches for expert decisions in sports.

    PubMed

    Glöckner, Andreas; Heinen, Thomas; Johnson, Joseph G; Raab, Markus

    2012-04-01

    This paper focuses on a model comparison to explain choices based on gaze behavior via simulation procedures. We tested two classes of models, a parallel constraint satisfaction (PCS) artificial neuronal network model and an accumulator model in a handball decision-making task from a lab experiment. Both models predict action in an option-generation task in which options can be chosen from the perspective of a playmaker in handball (i.e., passing to another player or shooting at the goal). Model simulations are based on a dataset of generated options together with gaze behavior measurements from 74 expert handball players for 22 pieces of video footage. We implemented both classes of models as deterministic vs. probabilistic models including and excluding fitted parameters. Results indicated that both classes of models can fit and predict participants' initially generated options based on gaze behavior data, and that overall, the classes of models performed about equally well. Early fixations were thereby particularly predictive for choices. We conclude that the analyses of complex environments via network approaches can be successfully applied to the field of experts' decision making in sports and provide perspectives for further theoretical developments.

  12. From Career Decision-Making Styles to Career Decision-Making Profiles: A Multidimensional Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gati, Itamar; Landman, Shiri; Davidovitch, Shlomit; Asulin-Peretz, Lisa; Gadassi, Reuma

    2010-01-01

    Previous research on individual differences in career decision-making processes has often focused on classifying individuals into a few types of decision-making "styles" based on the most dominant trait or characteristic of their approach to the decision process (e.g., rational, intuitive, dependent; Harren, 1979). In this research, an alternative…

  13. Making Career Decisions--A Sequential Elimination Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gati, Itamar

    1986-01-01

    Presents a model for career decision making based on the sequential elimination of occupational alternatives, an adaptation for career decisions of Tversky's (1972) elimination-by-aspects theory of choice. The expected utility approach is reviewed as a representative compensatory model for career decisions. Advantages, disadvantages, and…

  14. Understanding The Decision Context: DPSIR, Decision Landscape, And Social Network Analysis

    EPA Science Inventory

    Establishing the decision context for a management problem is the critical first step for effective decision analysis. Understanding the decision context allow stakeholders and decision-makers to integrate the societal, environmental, and economic considerations that must be con...

  15. Neural substrates of approach-avoidance conflict decision-making.

    PubMed

    Aupperle, Robin L; Melrose, Andrew J; Francisco, Alex; Paulus, Martin P; Stein, Murray B

    2015-02-01

    Animal approach-avoidance conflict paradigms have been used extensively to operationalize anxiety, quantify the effects of anxiolytic agents, and probe the neural basis of fear and anxiety. Results from human neuroimaging studies support that a frontal-striatal-amygdala neural circuitry is important for approach-avoidance learning. However, the neural basis of decision-making is much less clear in this context. Thus, we combined a recently developed human approach-avoidance paradigm with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to identify neural substrates underlying approach-avoidance conflict decision-making. Fifteen healthy adults completed the approach-avoidance conflict (AAC) paradigm during fMRI. Analyses of variance were used to compare conflict to nonconflict (avoid-threat and approach-reward) conditions and to compare level of reward points offered during the decision phase. Trial-by-trial amplitude modulation analyses were used to delineate brain areas underlying decision-making in the context of approach/avoidance behavior. Conflict trials as compared to the nonconflict trials elicited greater activation within bilateral anterior cingulate cortex, anterior insula, and caudate, as well as right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (PFC). Right caudate and lateral PFC activation was modulated by level of reward offered. Individuals who showed greater caudate activation exhibited less approach behavior. On a trial-by-trial basis, greater right lateral PFC activation related to less approach behavior. Taken together, results suggest that the degree of activation within prefrontal-striatal-insula circuitry determines the degree of approach versus avoidance decision-making. Moreover, the degree of caudate and lateral PFC activation related to individual differences in approach-avoidance decision-making. Therefore, the approach-avoidance conflict paradigm is ideally suited to probe anxiety-related processing differences during approach-avoidance decision

  16. A Bayesian sequential processor approach to spectroscopic portal system decisions

    SciTech Connect

    Sale, K; Candy, J; Breitfeller, E; Guidry, B; Manatt, D; Gosnell, T; Chambers, D

    2007-07-31

    The development of faster more reliable techniques to detect radioactive contraband in a portal type scenario is an extremely important problem especially in this era of constant terrorist threats. Towards this goal the development of a model-based, Bayesian sequential data processor for the detection problem is discussed. In the sequential processor each datum (detector energy deposit and pulse arrival time) is used to update the posterior probability distribution over the space of model parameters. The nature of the sequential processor approach is that a detection is produced as soon as it is statistically justified by the data rather than waiting for a fixed counting interval before any analysis is performed. In this paper the Bayesian model-based approach, physics and signal processing models and decision functions are discussed along with the first results of our research.

  17. Neural substrates of approach-avoidance conflict decision-making

    PubMed Central

    Aupperle, Robin L.; Melrose, Andrew J.; Francisco, Alex; Paulus, Martin P.; Stein, Murray B.

    2014-01-01

    Animal approach-avoidance conflict paradigms have been used extensively to operationalize anxiety, quantify the effects of anxiolytic agents, and probe the neural basis of fear and anxiety. Results from human neuroimaging studies support that a frontal-striatal-amygdala neural circuitry is important for approach-avoidance learning. However, the neural basis of decision-making is much less clear in this context. Thus, we combined a recently developed human approach-avoidance paradigm with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to identify neural substrates underlying approach-avoidance conflict decision-making. Fifteen healthy adults completed the approach-avoidance conflict (AAC) paradigm during fMRI. Analyses of variance were used to compare conflict to non-conflict (avoid-threat and approach-reward) conditions and to compare level of reward points offered during the decision phase. Trial-by-trial amplitude modulation analyses were used to delineate brain areas underlying decision-making in the context of approach/avoidance behavior. Conflict trials as compared to the non-conflict trials elicited greater activation within bilateral anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), anterior insula, and caudate, as well as right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. Right caudate and lateral PFC activation was modulated by level of reward offered. Individuals who showed greater caudate activation exhibited less approach behavior. On a trial-by-trial basis, greater right lateral PFC activation related to less approach behavior. Taken together, results suggest that the degree of activation within prefrontal-striatal-insula circuitry determines the degree of approach versus avoidance decision-making. Moreover, the degree of caudate and lateral PFC activation is related to individual differences in approach-avoidance decision-making. Therefore, the AAC paradigm is ideally suited to probe anxiety-related processing differences during approach-avoidance decision-making. PMID:25224633

  18. Variations in Decision-Making Approach to Tertiary Teaching: A Case Study in Vietnam

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nguyen, Thanh Tien

    2016-01-01

    Although the question of what to teach and how to teach has received much attention from the literature, little was known about the way in which academics in teaching groups make decision on what and how to teach. This paper reports an analysis of variations in the decision-making approach to tertiary teaching through academics' practices of…

  19. Reducing Post-Decision Dissonance in International Decisions: The Analytic Hierarchy Process Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DuBois, Frank L.

    1999-01-01

    Describes use of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) as a teaching tool to illustrate the complexities of decision making in an international environment. The AHP approach uses managerial input to develop pairwise comparisons of relevant decision criteria to efficiently generate an appropriate solution. (DB)

  20. Cloud Service Selection Using Multicriteria Decision Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Anuar, Nor Badrul; Shiraz, Muhammad; Haque, Israat Tanzeena

    2014-01-01

    Cloud computing (CC) has recently been receiving tremendous attention from the IT industry and academic researchers. CC leverages its unique services to cloud customers in a pay-as-you-go, anytime, anywhere manner. Cloud services provide dynamically scalable services through the Internet on demand. Therefore, service provisioning plays a key role in CC. The cloud customer must be able to select appropriate services according to his or her needs. Several approaches have been proposed to solve the service selection problem, including multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). MCDA enables the user to choose from among a number of available choices. In this paper, we analyze the application of MCDA to service selection in CC. We identify and synthesize several MCDA techniques and provide a comprehensive analysis of this technology for general readers. In addition, we present a taxonomy derived from a survey of the current literature. Finally, we highlight several state-of-the-art practical aspects of MCDA implementation in cloud computing service selection. The contributions of this study are four-fold: (a) focusing on the state-of-the-art MCDA techniques, (b) highlighting the comparative analysis and suitability of several MCDA methods, (c) presenting a taxonomy through extensive literature review, and (d) analyzing and summarizing the cloud computing service selections in different scenarios. PMID:24696645

  1. Cloud service selection using multicriteria decision analysis.

    PubMed

    Whaiduzzaman, Md; Gani, Abdullah; Anuar, Nor Badrul; Shiraz, Muhammad; Haque, Mohammad Nazmul; Haque, Israat Tanzeena

    2014-01-01

    Cloud computing (CC) has recently been receiving tremendous attention from the IT industry and academic researchers. CC leverages its unique services to cloud customers in a pay-as-you-go, anytime, anywhere manner. Cloud services provide dynamically scalable services through the Internet on demand. Therefore, service provisioning plays a key role in CC. The cloud customer must be able to select appropriate services according to his or her needs. Several approaches have been proposed to solve the service selection problem, including multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). MCDA enables the user to choose from among a number of available choices. In this paper, we analyze the application of MCDA to service selection in CC. We identify and synthesize several MCDA techniques and provide a comprehensive analysis of this technology for general readers. In addition, we present a taxonomy derived from a survey of the current literature. Finally, we highlight several state-of-the-art practical aspects of MCDA implementation in cloud computing service selection. The contributions of this study are four-fold: (a) focusing on the state-of-the-art MCDA techniques, (b) highlighting the comparative analysis and suitability of several MCDA methods, (c) presenting a taxonomy through extensive literature review, and (d) analyzing and summarizing the cloud computing service selections in different scenarios.

  2. A Practical Approach to Modified Condition/Decision Coverage

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hayhurst, Kelly J.; Veerhusem, Dan S.

    2001-01-01

    Testing of software intended for safety-critical applications in commercial transport aircraft must achieve modified condition/decision coverage (MC/DC) of the software structure. This requirement causes anxiety for many within the aviation software community. Results of a survey of the aviation software industry indicate that many developers believe that meeting the MC/DC requirement is difficult, and the cost is exorbitant. Some of the difficulties stem, no doubt, from the scant information available on the subject. This paper provides a practical 5-step approach for assessing MC/DC for aviation software products, and an analysis of some types of errors expected to be caught when MC/DC is achieved1.

  3. A Variable Precision Attribute Reduction Approach in Multilabel Decision Tables

    PubMed Central

    Li, Hua; Li, Deyu; Zhai, Yanhui; Wang, Suge; Zhang, Jing

    2014-01-01

    Owing to the high dimensionality of multilabel data, feature selection in multilabel learning will be necessary in order to reduce the redundant features and improve the performance of multilabel classification. Rough set theory, as a valid mathematical tool for data analysis, has been widely applied to feature selection (also called attribute reduction). In this study, we propose a variable precision attribute reduct for multilabel data based on rough set theory, called δ-confidence reduct, which can correctly capture the uncertainty implied among labels. Furthermore, judgement theory and discernibility matrix associated with δ-confidence reduct are also introduced, from which we can obtain the approach to knowledge reduction in multilabel decision tables. PMID:25170521

  4. Aiding Lay Decision Making Using a Cognitive Competencies Approach

    PubMed Central

    Maule, A. J.; Maule, Simon

    2016-01-01

    Two prescriptive approaches have evolved to aid human decision making: just in time interventions that provide support as a decision is being made; and just in case interventions that educate people about future events that they may encounter so that they are better prepared to make an informed decision when these events occur. We review research on these two approaches developed in the context of supporting everyday decisions such as choosing an apartment, a financial product or a medical procedure. We argue that the lack of an underlying prescriptive theory has limited the development and evaluation of these interventions. We draw on recent descriptive research on the cognitive competencies that underpin human decision making to suggest new ways of interpreting how and why existing decision aids may be effective and suggest a different way of evaluating their effectiveness. We also briefly outline how our approach has the potential to develop new interventions to support everyday decision making and highlight the benefits of drawing on descriptive research when developing and evaluating interventions. PMID:26779052

  5. Decisions, decisions: analysis of age, cohort, and time of testing on framing of risky decision options.

    PubMed

    Mayhorn, Christopher B; Fisk, Arthur D; Whittle, Justin D

    2002-01-01

    Decision making in uncertain environments is a daily challenge faced by adults of all ages. Framing decision options as either gains or losses is a common method of altering decision-making behavior. In the experiment reported here, benchmark decision-making data collected in the 1970s by Tversky and Kahneman (1981, 1988) were compared with data collected from current samples of young and older adults to determine whether behavior was consistent across time. Although differences did emerge between the benchmark and the present samples, the effect of framing on decision behavior was relatively stable. The present findings suggest that adults of all ages are susceptible to framing effects. Results also indicated that apparent age differences might be better explained by an analysis of cohort and time-of-testing effects. Actual or potential applications of this research include an understanding of how framing might influence the decision-making behavior of people of all ages in a number of applied contexts, such as product warning interactions and medical decision scenarios.

  6. New approaches with surrogate decision makers.

    PubMed

    Howe, Edmund G

    2014-01-01

    A first principle in ethics consultation is that reasoning is essential. A second principle is that the religious and cultural views of patients and their surrogates are usually respected. What can be done when these principles collide-when patients or surrogates have religious or cultural views and beliefs that clinicians find unreasonable or even offensive? Mediation may provide some approaches to assist us in providing the most ethically appropriate assistance.

  7. Architecting Space Exploration Campaigns: A Decision-Analytic Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baker, Erin; Morse, Elisabeth L.; Gray, Andrew A.; Easter, Robert W.

    2006-01-01

    This paper shows the benefits of Decision Analysis techniques for campaign design and evaluation. Important concepts of decision analysis are reviewed through the lens of designing a campaign to find exploitable equatorial water on Mars. The method developed herein is general to any search campaign. The paper concludes with a discussion of the challenges and opportunities in applying similar techniques to other types of campaigns.

  8. Beyond Bioethics: A Child Rights-Based Approach to Complex Medical Decision-Making.

    PubMed

    Wade, Katherine; Melamed, Irene; Goldhagen, Jeffrey

    2016-01-01

    This analysis adopts a child rights approach-based on the principles, standards, and norms of child rights and the U.N. Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC)-to explore how decisions could be made with regard to treatment of a severely impaired infant (Baby G). While a child rights approach does not provide neat answers to ethically complex issues, it does provide a framework for decision-making in which the infant is viewed as an independent rights-holder. The state has obligations to develop the capacity of those who make decisions for infants in such situations to meet their obligations to respect, protect, and fulfill their rights as delineated in the CRC. Furthermore, a child rights approach requires procedural clarity and transparency in decision-making processes. As all rights in the CRC are interdependent and indivisible, all must be considered in the process of ethical decision-making, and the reasons for decisions must be delineated by reference to how these rights were considered. It is also important that decisions that are made in this context be monitored and reviewed to ensure consistency. A rights-based framework ensures decision-making is child-centered and that there are transparent criteria and legitimate procedures for making decisions regarding the child's most basic human right: the right to life, survival, and development. PMID:27157351

  9. Decision analysis applications and the CERCLA process

    SciTech Connect

    Purucker, S.T.; Lyon, B.F. |

    1994-06-01

    Quantitative decision methods can be developed during environmental restoration projects that incorporate stakeholder input and can complement current efforts that are undertaken for data collection and alternatives evaluation during the CERCLA process. These decision-making tools can supplement current EPA guidance as well as focus on problems that arise as attempts are made to make informed decisions regarding remedial alternative selection. In examining the use of such applications, the authors discuss the use of decision analysis tools and their impact on collecting data and making environmental decisions from a risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based perspective. They will look at the construction of objective functions for quantifying different risk-based decision rules that incorporate stakeholder concerns. This represents a quantitative method for implementing the Data Quality Objective (DQO) process. These objective functions can be expressed using a variety of indices to analyze problems that currently arise in the environmental field. Examples include cost, magnitude of risk, efficiency, and probability of success or failure. Based on such defined objective functions, a project can evaluate the impact of different risk and decision selection strategies on data worth and alternative selection.

  10. Clinical decision-making and therapeutic approaches in osteopathy - a qualitative grounded theory study.

    PubMed

    Thomson, Oliver P; Petty, Nicola J; Moore, Ann P

    2014-02-01

    There is limited understanding of how osteopaths make decisions in relation to clinical practice. The aim of this research was to construct an explanatory theory of the clinical decision-making and therapeutic approaches of experienced osteopaths in the UK. Twelve UK registered osteopaths participated in this constructivist grounded theory qualitative study. Purposive and theoretical sampling was used to select participants. Data was collected using semi-structured interviews which were audio-recorded and transcribed. As the study approached theoretical sufficiency, participants were observed and video-recorded during a patient appointment, which was followed by a video-prompted interview. Constant comparative analysis was used to analyse and code data. Data analysis resulted in the construction of three qualitatively different therapeutic approaches which characterised participants and their clinical practice, termed; Treater, Communicator and Educator. Participants' therapeutic approach influenced their approach to clinical decision-making, the level of patient involvement, their interaction with patients, and therapeutic goals. Participants' overall conception of practice lay on a continuum ranging from technical rationality to professional artistry, and contributed to their therapeutic approach. A range of factors were identified which influenced participants' conception of practice. The findings indicate that there is variation in osteopaths' therapeutic approaches to practice and clinical decision-making, which are influenced by their overall conception of practice. This study provides the first explanatory theory of the clinical decision-making and therapeutic approaches of osteopaths.

  11. Geospatial Approach on Landslide Hazard Zonation Mapping Using Multicriteria Decision Analysis: A Study on Coonoor and Ooty, Part of Kallar Watershed, The Nilgiris, Tamil Nadu

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahamana, S. Abdul; Aruchamy, S.; Jegankumar, R.

    2014-12-01

    Landslides are one of the critical natural phenomena that frequently lead to serious problems in hilly area, resulting to loss of human life and property, as well as causing severe damage to natural resources. The local geology with high degree of slope coupled with high intensity of rainfall along with unplanned human activities of the study area causes many landslides in this region. The present study area is more attracted by tourist throughout the year, so this area must be considered for preventive measures. Geospatial based Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) technique is increasingly used for landslide vulnerability and hazard zonation mapping. It enables the integration of different data layers with different levels of uncertainty. In this present study, it is used analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method to prepare landslide hazard zones of the Coonoor and Ooty, part of Kallar watershed, The Nilgiris, Tamil Nadu. The study was carried out using remote sensing data, field surveys and geographic information system (GIS) tools. The ten factors that influence landslide occurrence, such as elevation, slope aspect, slope angle, drainage density, lineament density, soil, precipitation, land use/land cover (LULC), distance from road and NDVI were considered. These factors layers were extracted from the various related spatial data's. These factors were evaluated, and then, the individual factor weight and class weight were assigned to each of the related factors. The Landslide Hazard Zone Index (LHZI) was calculated using Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) the technique based on the assigned weight and the rating is given by the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. The final cumulative map of the study area was categorized into four hazard zones and classified as zone I to IV. There are 3.56% of the area comes under the hazard zone IV fallowed by 48.19% of the area comes under zone III, 43.63 % of the area in zone II and 4.61% of the area comes hazard

  12. Decision Analysis for Equipment Selection

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cilliers, J. J.

    2005-01-01

    Equipment selection during process design is a critical aspect of chemical engineering and requires engineering judgment and subjective analysis. When educating chemical engineering students in the selection of proprietary equipment during design, the focus is often on the types of equipment available and their operating characteristics. The…

  13. Decision making in bipolar disorder: a cognitive modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Yechiam, Eldad; Hayden, Elizabeth P; Bodkins, Misty; O'Donnell, Brian F; Hetrick, William P

    2008-11-30

    A formal modeling approach was used to characterize decision-making processes in bipolar disorder. Decision making was examined in 28 bipolar patients (14 acute and 14 remitted) and 25 controls using the Iowa Gambling Task (Bechara et al., 1994), a decision-making task used for assessing cognitive impulsivity. To disentangle motivational and cognitive aspects of decision-making processes, we applied a formal cognitive model to the performance on the Iowa Gambling Task. The model has three parameters: The relative impact of rewards and punishments on evaluations, the impact of recent and past payoffs, and the degree of choice consistency. The results indicated that acute bipolar patients were characterized by low choice consistency, or a tendency to make erratic choices. Low choice consistency improved the prediction of acute bipolar disorder beyond that provided by cognitive functioning and self-report measures of personality and temperament. PMID:18848361

  14. Decision making in bipolar disorder: a cognitive modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Yechiam, Eldad; Hayden, Elizabeth P; Bodkins, Misty; O'Donnell, Brian F; Hetrick, William P

    2008-11-30

    A formal modeling approach was used to characterize decision-making processes in bipolar disorder. Decision making was examined in 28 bipolar patients (14 acute and 14 remitted) and 25 controls using the Iowa Gambling Task (Bechara et al., 1994), a decision-making task used for assessing cognitive impulsivity. To disentangle motivational and cognitive aspects of decision-making processes, we applied a formal cognitive model to the performance on the Iowa Gambling Task. The model has three parameters: The relative impact of rewards and punishments on evaluations, the impact of recent and past payoffs, and the degree of choice consistency. The results indicated that acute bipolar patients were characterized by low choice consistency, or a tendency to make erratic choices. Low choice consistency improved the prediction of acute bipolar disorder beyond that provided by cognitive functioning and self-report measures of personality and temperament.

  15. Closed-Loop Analysis of Soft Decisions for Serial Links

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lansdowne, Chatwin A.; Steele, Glen F.; Zucha, Joan P.; Schlesinger, Adam M.

    2013-01-01

    We describe the benefit of using closed-loop measurements for a radio receiver paired with a counterpart transmitter. We show that real-time analysis of the soft decision output of a receiver can provide rich and relevant insight far beyond the traditional hard-decision bit error rate (BER) test statistic. We describe a Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in live-time during the development of software defined radios. This test technique gains importance as modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more protocol overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios (SDRs) use error-correction codes that approach Shannon's theoretical limit of performance.

  16. Interventionist and participatory approaches to flood risk mitigation decisions: two case studies in the Italian Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bianchizza, C.; Del Bianco, D.; Pellizzoni, L.; Scolobig, A.

    2012-04-01

    Flood risk mitigation decisions pose key challenges not only from a technical but also from a social, economic and political viewpoint. There is an increasing demand for improving the quality of these processes by including different stakeholders - and especially by involving the local residents in the decision making process - and by guaranteeing the actual improvement of local social capacities during and after the decision making. In this paper we analyse two case studies of flood risk mitigation decisions, Malborghetto-Valbruna and Vipiteno-Sterzing, in the Italian Alps. In both of them, mitigation works have been completed or planned, yet following completely different approaches especially in terms of responses of residents and involvement of local authorities. In Malborghetto-Valbruna an 'interventionist' approach (i.e. leaning towards a top down/technocratic decision process) was used to make decisions after the flood event that affected the municipality in the year 2003. In Vipiteno-Sterzing, a 'participatory' approach (i.e. leaning towards a bottom-up/inclusive decision process) was applied: decisions about risk mitigation measures were made by submitting different projects to the local citizens and by involving them in the decision making process. The analysis of the two case studies presented in the paper is grounded on the results of two research projects. Structured and in-depth interviews, as well as questionnaire surveys were used to explore residents' and local authorities' orientations toward flood risk mitigation. Also a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) involving key stakeholders was used to better understand the characteristics of the communities and their perception of flood risk mitigation issues. The results highlight some key differences between interventionist and participatory approaches, together with some implications of their adoption in the local context. Strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches

  17. Decision support models for solid waste management: Review and game-theoretic approaches

    SciTech Connect

    Karmperis, Athanasios C.; Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.; Sotirchos, Anastasios

    2013-05-15

    Highlights: ► The mainly used decision support frameworks for solid waste management are reviewed. ► The LCA, CBA and MCDM models are presented and their strengths, weaknesses, similarities and possible combinations are analyzed. ► The game-theoretic approach in a solid waste management context is presented. ► The waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework. ► Cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches to decision support for solid waste management are discussed. - Abstract: This paper surveys decision support models that are commonly used in the solid waste management area. Most models are mainly developed within three decision support frameworks, which are the life-cycle assessment, the cost–benefit analysis and the multi-criteria decision-making. These frameworks are reviewed and their strengths and weaknesses as well as their critical issues are analyzed, while their possible combinations and extensions are also discussed. Furthermore, the paper presents how cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches can be used for the purpose of modeling and analyzing decision-making in situations with multiple stakeholders. Specifically, since a waste management model is sustainable when considering not only environmental and economic but also social aspects, the waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework in which future models can be developed.

  18. Optimal Decision Stimuli for Risky Choice Experiments: An Adaptive Approach.

    PubMed

    Cavagnaro, Daniel R; Gonzalez, Richard; Myung, Jay I; Pitt, Mark A

    2013-02-01

    Collecting data to discriminate between models of risky choice requires careful selection of decision stimuli. Models of decision making aim to predict decisions across a wide range of possible stimuli, but practical limitations force experimenters to select only a handful of them for actual testing. Some stimuli are more diagnostic between models than others, so the choice of stimuli is critical. This paper provides the theoretical background and a methodological framework for adaptive selection of optimal stimuli for discriminating among models of risky choice. The approach, called Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO), adapts the stimulus in each experimental trial based on the results of the preceding trials. We demonstrate the validity of the approach with simulation studies aiming to discriminate Expected Utility, Weighted Expected Utility, Original Prospect Theory, and Cumulative Prospect Theory models. PMID:24532856

  19. Optimal Decision Stimuli for Risky Choice Experiments: An Adaptive Approach

    PubMed Central

    Cavagnaro, Daniel R.; Gonzalez, Richard; Myung, Jay I.; Pitt, Mark A.

    2014-01-01

    Collecting data to discriminate between models of risky choice requires careful selection of decision stimuli. Models of decision making aim to predict decisions across a wide range of possible stimuli, but practical limitations force experimenters to select only a handful of them for actual testing. Some stimuli are more diagnostic between models than others, so the choice of stimuli is critical. This paper provides the theoretical background and a methodological framework for adaptive selection of optimal stimuli for discriminating among models of risky choice. The approach, called Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO), adapts the stimulus in each experimental trial based on the results of the preceding trials. We demonstrate the validity of the approach with simulation studies aiming to discriminate Expected Utility, Weighted Expected Utility, Original Prospect Theory, and Cumulative Prospect Theory models. PMID:24532856

  20. A Fuzzy Set Theory Approach to Periodical Binding Decisions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Turner, Stephen J.; O'Brien, Gregory

    1984-01-01

    Results of data analysis on 470 journal titles illustrate complexity of the fuzzy set theory modeling process, which consists of three factors--number of missing issues, citations, circulations--and its limitations in making journal binding decisions. Procedures of research, data collection, and data analysis are discussed. Matrices are included.…

  1. Multiobjective Integrated Decision Analysis System (MIDAS): Volume 1, Model overview: Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Farber, M.; Brusger, E.; Gerber, M.

    1988-04-01

    MIDAS (Multiobjective Integrated Decision Analysis System) is an innovative utility planning tool that facilitates the analysis of risk. Three features distinguish this framework from other planning models: it incorporates a generalized decision analysis approach; it includes a completely integrated planning model for demand-supply evaluation; and the complete model runs on a microcomputer. 24 figs.

  2. Methodical Approach to Developing a Decision Support System for Well Interventions Planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silich, V. A.; Savelev, A. O.; Isaev, A. N.

    2016-04-01

    The paper contains aspects of developing a decision support systems aimed for well interventions planning within the process of oil production engineering. The specific approach described by authors is based on system analysis methods and object model for system design. Declared number of problem-decision principles as follows: the principle of consolidated information area, the principle of integrated control, the principle of development process transparency. Also observed a set of models (class model, object model, attribute interdependence model, component model, coordination model) specified for designing decision support system for well intervention planning.

  3. The Melbourne Code Appendices: announcing a new approach for tracking nomenclatural decisions and a analysis of the history of nomenclatural proposals

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A newly expanded digital resource exists for tracking decisions on all nomenclature proposals potentially contributing to Appendices II-VIII of the International Code of Nomenclature for algae, fungi, and plants. This resource originated with the Smithsonian Institution's Proposals and Disposals web...

  4. Improving Intelligence Analysis With Decision Science.

    PubMed

    Dhami, Mandeep K; Mandel, David R; Mellers, Barbara A; Tetlock, Philip E

    2015-11-01

    Intelligence analysis plays a vital role in policy decision making. Key functions of intelligence analysis include accurately forecasting significant events, appropriately characterizing the uncertainties inherent in such forecasts, and effectively communicating those probabilistic forecasts to stakeholders. We review decision research on probabilistic forecasting and uncertainty communication, drawing attention to findings that could be used to reform intelligence processes and contribute to more effective intelligence oversight. We recommend that the intelligence community (IC) regularly and quantitatively monitor its forecasting accuracy to better understand how well it is achieving its functions. We also recommend that the IC use decision science to improve these functions (namely, forecasting and communication of intelligence estimates made under conditions of uncertainty). In the case of forecasting, decision research offers suggestions for improvement that involve interventions on data (e.g., transforming forecasts to debias them) and behavior (e.g., via selection, training, and effective team structuring). In the case of uncertainty communication, the literature suggests that current intelligence procedures, which emphasize the use of verbal probabilities, are ineffective. The IC should, therefore, leverage research that points to ways in which verbal probability use may be improved as well as exploring the use of numerical probabilities wherever feasible.

  5. Decerns: A framework for multi-criteria decision analysis

    DOE PAGES

    Yatsalo, Boris; Didenko, Vladimir; Gritsyuk, Sergey; Sullivan, Terry

    2015-02-27

    A new framework, Decerns, for multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) of a wide range of practical problems on risk management is introduced. Decerns framework contains a library of modules that are the basis for two scalable systems: DecernsMCDA for analysis of multicriteria problems, and DecernsSDSS for multicriteria analysis of spatial options. DecernsMCDA includes well known MCDA methods and original methods for uncertainty treatment based on probabilistic approaches and fuzzy numbers. As a result, these MCDA methods are described along with a case study on analysis of multicriteria location problem.

  6. Use of a pro-fibrogenic mechanism-based predictive toxicological approach for tiered testing and decision analysis of carbonaceous nanomaterials.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xiang; Duch, Matthew C; Mansukhani, Nikhita; Ji, Zhaoxia; Liao, Yu-Pei; Wang, Meiying; Zhang, Haiyuan; Sun, Bingbing; Chang, Chong Hyun; Li, Ruibin; Lin, Sijie; Meng, Huan; Xia, Tian; Hersam, Mark C; Nel, André E

    2015-03-24

    Engineered carbonaceous nanomaterials (ECNs), including single-wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs), multiwall carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs), graphene, and graphene oxide (GO), are potentially hazardous to the lung. With incremental experience in the use of predictive toxicological approaches, seeking to relate ECN physicochemical properties to adverse outcome pathways (AOPs), it is logical to explore the existence of a common AOP that allows comparative analysis of broad ECN categories. We established an ECN library comprising three different types of SWCNTs, graphene, and graphene oxide (two sizes) for comparative analysis according to a cell-based AOP that also plays a role in the pathogenesis of pulmonary fibrosis. SWCNTs synthesized by Hipco, arc discharge and Co-Mo catalyst (CoMoCAT) methods were obtained in their as-prepared (AP) state, following which they were further purified (PD) or coated with Pluronic F108 (PF108) or bovine serum albumin (BSA) to improve dispersal and colloidal stability. GO was prepared as two sizes, GO-small (S) and GO-large (L), while the graphene samples were coated with BSA and PF108 to enable dispersion in aqueous solution. In vitro screening showed that AP- and PD-SWCNTs, irrespective of the method of synthesis, as well as graphene (BSA) and GO (S and L) could trigger interleukin-1β (IL-1β) and transforming growth factor-β1 (TGF-β1) production in myeloid (THP-1) and epithelial (BEAS-2B) cell lines, respectively. Oropharyngeal aspiration in mice confirmed that AP-Hipco tubes, graphene (BSA-dispersed), GO-S and GO-L could induce IL-1β and TGF-β1 production in the lung in parallel with lung fibrosis. Notably, GO-L was the most pro-fibrogenic material based on rapid kinetics of pulmonary injury. In contrast, PF108-dispersed SWCNTs and -graphene failed to exert fibrogenic effects. Collectively, these data indicate that the dispersal state and surface reactivity of ECNs play key roles in triggering a pro-fibrogenic AOP, which could prove

  7. Choices, choices: the application of multi-criteria decision analysis to a food safety decision-making problem.

    PubMed

    Fazil, A; Rajic, A; Sanchez, J; McEwen, S

    2008-11-01

    In the food safety arena, the decision-making process can be especially difficult. Decision makers are often faced with social and fiscal pressures when attempting to identify an appropriate balance among several choices. Concurrently, policy and decision makers in microbial food safety are under increasing pressure to demonstrate that their policies and decisions are made using transparent and accountable processes. In this article, we present a multi-criteria decision analysis approach that can be used to address the problem of trying to select a food safety intervention while balancing various criteria. Criteria that are important when selecting an intervention were determined, as a result of an expert consultation, to include effectiveness, cost, weight of evidence, and practicality associated with the interventions. The multi-criteria decision analysis approach we present is able to consider these criteria and arrive at a ranking of interventions. It can also provide a clear justification for the ranking as well as demonstrate to stakeholders, through a scenario analysis approach, how to potentially converge toward common ground. While this article focuses on the problem of selecting food safety interventions, the range of applications in the food safety arena is truly diverse and can be a significant tool in assisting decisions that need to be coherent, transparent, and justifiable. Most importantly, it is a significant contributor when there is a need to strike a fine balance between various potentially competing alternatives and/or stakeholder groups.

  8. Fuzzy methods in decision making process - A particular approach in manufacturing systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coroiu, A. M.

    2015-11-01

    We are living in a competitive environment, so we can see and understand that the most of manufacturing firms do the best in order to accomplish meeting demand, increasing quality, decreasing costs, and delivery rate. In present a stake point of interest is represented by the development of fuzzy technology. A particular approach for this is represented through the development of methodologies to enhance the ability to managed complicated optimization and decision making aspects involving non-probabilistic uncertainty with the reason to understand, development, and practice the fuzzy technologies to be used in fields such as economic, engineering, management, and societal problems. Fuzzy analysis represents a method for solving problems which are related to uncertainty and vagueness; it is used in multiple areas, such as engineering and has applications in decision making problems, planning and production. As a definition for decision making process we can use the next one: result of mental processes based upon cognitive process with a main role in the selection of a course of action among several alternatives. Every process of decision making can be represented as a result of a final choice and the output can be represented as an action or as an opinion of choice. Different types of uncertainty can be discovered in a wide variety of optimization and decision making problems related to planning and operation of power systems and subsystems. The mixture of the uncertainty factor in the construction of different models serves for increasing their adequacy and, as a result, the reliability and factual efficiency of decisions based on their analysis. Another definition of decision making process which came to illustrate and sustain the necessity of using fuzzy method: the decision making is an approach of choosing a strategy among many different projects in order to achieve some purposes and is formulated as three different models: high risk decision, usual risk

  9. A decision class analysis of critical care life-support decision-making.

    PubMed

    Seiver, A

    1993-02-01

    Decision analysis is a powerful methodology that can help clinicians make good decisions. Because it is not practical to place a decision analyst at the bedside in critical care units, the application of this methodology will require leveraging the analyst through computer-based systems. A decision class analysis is a collective analysis of a group of decisions that provides the high-level specification for such a computer system. This paper presents a decision class analysis of critical care life-support decisions. Key elements of this analysis are: the simplification of an otherwise extremely complex multistage sequential decision problem by using a sequence of two-stage models, and the use of six generic knowledge maps that capture the extremely complex relevant medical knowledge. PMID:8326214

  10. Decision framework for technology choice. Volume 2: decision analysis user's manual. [TCM computer code

    SciTech Connect

    Sicherman, A.; Keeney, R.L.

    1982-03-01

    A computer program was developed to aid decision makers in choosing among alternatives. It facilitiates the implementation of the decision analysis approach to multiobjective decision-making problems. The program's main functions are to store the information and perform all the necessary computations required by the approach. The program is designed so that only a few basic commands need to be understood in order to use it effectively. The style of input can be both batch and interactively oriented. Detailed specification of preferences and alternatives is usually done in batch mode while sensitivity analysis can be performed interactively. The output consists of ranking, preference and alternative information displays. The program is quite general and should be applicable to a wide variety of problems. The code allows for an interface to user supplied models when that is desirable. It is designed to run on most computer systems without or with very minor system-specific modifications. This report presents a user's manual for the program that includes a simple illustrative example.

  11. The Aeronautical Data Link: Decision Framework for Architecture Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris, A. Terry; Goode, Plesent W.

    2003-01-01

    A decision analytic approach that develops optimal data link architecture configuration and behavior to meet multiple conflicting objectives of concurrent and different airspace operations functions has previously been developed. The approach, premised on a formal taxonomic classification that correlates data link performance with operations requirements, information requirements, and implementing technologies, provides a coherent methodology for data link architectural analysis from top-down and bottom-up perspectives. This paper follows the previous research by providing more specific approaches for mapping and transitioning between the lower levels of the decision framework. The goal of the architectural analysis methodology is to assess the impact of specific architecture configurations and behaviors on the efficiency, capacity, and safety of operations. This necessarily involves understanding the various capabilities, system level performance issues and performance and interface concepts related to the conceptual purpose of the architecture and to the underlying data link technologies. Efficient and goal-directed data link architectural network configuration is conditioned on quantifying the risks and uncertainties associated with complex structural interface decisions. Deterministic and stochastic optimal design approaches will be discussed that maximize the effectiveness of architectural designs.

  12. Decision analysis for INEL hazardous waste storage

    SciTech Connect

    Page, L.A.; Roach, J.A.

    1994-01-01

    In mid-November 1993, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) Waste Reduction Operations Complex (WROC) Manager requested that the INEL Hazardous Waste Type Manager perform a decision analysis to determine whether or not a new Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) was needed to store INEL hazardous waste (HW). In response to this request, a team was formed to perform a decision analysis for recommending the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. Personnel who participated in the decision analysis are listed in Appendix B. The results of the analysis indicate that the existing HWSF is not the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. The analysis detailed in Appendix C concludes that the best HW storage configuration would be to modify and use a portion of the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) Waste Storage Building (WWSB), PBF-623 (Alternative 3). This facility was constructed in 1991 to serve as a waste staging facility for WERF incineration. The modifications include an extension of the current Room 105 across the south end of the WWSB and installing heating, ventilation, and bay curbing, which would provide approximately 1,600 ft{sup 2} of isolated HW storage area. Negotiations with the State to discuss aisle space requirements along with modifications to WWSB operating procedures are also necessary. The process to begin utilizing the WWSB for HW storage includes planned closure of the HWSF, modification to the WWSB, and relocation of the HW inventory. The cost to modify the WWSB can be funded by a reallocation of funding currently identified to correct HWSF deficiencies.

  13. Investigation of Multi-Criteria Decision Consistency: A Triplex Approach to Optimal Oilfield Portfolio Investment Decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qaradaghi, Mohammed

    Complexity of the capital intensive oil and gas portfolio investments is continuously growing. It is manifested in the constant increase in the type, number and degree of risks and uncertainties, which consequently lead to more challenging decision making problems. A typical complex decision making problem in petroleum exploration and production (E&P) is the selection and prioritization of oilfields/projects in a portfolio investment. Prioritizing oilfields maybe required for different purposes, including the achievement of a targeted production and allocation of limited available development resources. These resources cannot be distributed evenly nor can they be allocated based on the oilfield size or production capacity alone since various other factors need to be considered simultaneously. These factors may include subsurface complexity, size of reservoir, plateau production and needed infrastructure in addition to other issues of strategic concern, such as socio-economic, environmental and fiscal policies, particularly when the decision making involves governments or national oil companies. Therefore, it would be imperative to employ decision aiding tools that not only address these factors, but also incorporate the decision makers' preferences clearly and accurately. However, the tools commonly used in project portfolio selection and optimization, including intuitive approaches, vary in their focus and strength in addressing the different criteria involved in such decision problems. They are also disadvantaged by a number of drawbacks, which may include lacking the capacity to address multiple and interrelated criteria, uncertainty and risk, project relationship with regard to value contribution and optimum resource utilization, non-monetary attributes, decision maker's knowledge and expertise, in addition to varying levels of ease of use and other practical and theoretical drawbacks. These drawbacks have motivated researchers to investigate other tools and

  14. The value of decision tree analysis in planning anaesthetic care in obstetrics.

    PubMed

    Bamber, J H; Evans, S A

    2016-08-01

    The use of decision tree analysis is discussed in the context of the anaesthetic and obstetric management of a young pregnant woman with joint hypermobility syndrome with a history of insensitivity to local anaesthesia and a previous difficult intubation due to a tongue tumour. The multidisciplinary clinical decision process resulted in the woman being delivered without complication by elective caesarean section under general anaesthesia after an awake fibreoptic intubation. The decision process used is reviewed and compared retrospectively to a decision tree analytical approach. The benefits and limitations of using decision tree analysis are reviewed and its application in obstetric anaesthesia is discussed. PMID:27026589

  15. What can decision analysis do for invasive species management?

    PubMed

    Maguire, Lynn A

    2004-08-01

    Decisions about management of invasive species are difficult for all the reasons typically addressed by multiattribute decision analysis: uncertain outcomes, multiple and conflicting objectives, and many interested parties with differing views on both facts and values. This article illustrates how the tools of multiattribute analysis can improve management of invasive species, with an emphasis on making explicit the social values and preferences that must inform invasive species management. Risk assessment protocols developed previously for invasive species management typically suffer from two interacting flaws: (1) separating risk assessment from risk management, thus disrupting essential connections between the social values at stake in invasive species decisions and the scientific knowledge necessary to predict the likely impacts of management actions, and (2) relying on expert judgment about risk framed in qualitative and value-laden terms, inadvertently mixing the expert's judgment about what is likely to happen with personal preferences. Using the values structuring and probability-modeling elements of formal decision analysis can remedy these difficulties and make invasive species management responsive to both good science and public values. The management of feral pigs in Hawaiian ecosystems illustrates the need for such an integrated approach.

  16. What can decision analysis do for invasive species management?

    PubMed

    Maguire, Lynn A

    2004-08-01

    Decisions about management of invasive species are difficult for all the reasons typically addressed by multiattribute decision analysis: uncertain outcomes, multiple and conflicting objectives, and many interested parties with differing views on both facts and values. This article illustrates how the tools of multiattribute analysis can improve management of invasive species, with an emphasis on making explicit the social values and preferences that must inform invasive species management. Risk assessment protocols developed previously for invasive species management typically suffer from two interacting flaws: (1) separating risk assessment from risk management, thus disrupting essential connections between the social values at stake in invasive species decisions and the scientific knowledge necessary to predict the likely impacts of management actions, and (2) relying on expert judgment about risk framed in qualitative and value-laden terms, inadvertently mixing the expert's judgment about what is likely to happen with personal preferences. Using the values structuring and probability-modeling elements of formal decision analysis can remedy these difficulties and make invasive species management responsive to both good science and public values. The management of feral pigs in Hawaiian ecosystems illustrates the need for such an integrated approach. PMID:15357805

  17. A decision science approach for integrating social science in climate and energy solutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Krishnamurti, Tamar; Davis, Alex; Schwartz, Daniel; Fischhoff, Baruch

    2016-06-01

    The social and behavioural sciences are critical for informing climate- and energy-related policies. We describe a decision science approach to applying those sciences. It has three stages: formal analysis of decisions, characterizing how well-informed actors should view them; descriptive research, examining how people actually behave in such circumstances; and interventions, informed by formal analysis and descriptive research, designed to create attractive options and help decision-makers choose among them. Each stage requires collaboration with technical experts (for example, climate scientists, geologists, power systems engineers and regulatory analysts), as well as continuing engagement with decision-makers. We illustrate the approach with examples from our own research in three domains related to mitigating climate change or adapting to its effects: preparing for sea-level rise, adopting smart grid technologies in homes, and investing in energy efficiency for office buildings. The decision science approach can facilitate creating climate- and energy-related policies that are behaviourally informed, realistic and respectful of the people whom they seek to aid.

  18. Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water

    SciTech Connect

    Khadam, Ibrahim M.; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J

    2003-10-01

    Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost-benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost-benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis through a multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology introduces several important concepts and definitions in decision analysis related to subsurface contamination. These are the trade-off between population risk and individual risk, the trade-off between the residual risk and the cost of risk reduction, and cost-effectiveness as a justification for remediation. The proposed decision analysis framework integrates probabilistic health risk assessment into a comprehensive, yet simple, cost-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology focuses on developing decision criteria that provide insight into the common questions of the decision-maker that involve a number of remedial alternatives. The paper then explores three potential approaches for alternative ranking, a structured explicit decision analysis, a heuristic approach of importance of the order of criteria, and a fuzzy logic approach based on fuzzy dominance and similarity analysis. Using formal alternative ranking procedures, the methodology seeks to present a structured decision analysis framework that can be applied consistently across many different and complex remediation settings. A simple numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results showed the importance of using an integrated approach for decision-making considering both costs and risks. Future work should focus on the application of the methodology to a variety of complex field conditions to

  19. Thermal power systems small power systems applications project. Decision analysis for evaluating and ranking small solar thermal power system technologies. Volume 1: A brief introduction to multiattribute decision analysis. [explanation of multiattribute decision analysis methods used in evaluating alternatives for small powered systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feinberg, A.; Miles, R. F., Jr.

    1978-01-01

    The principal concepts of the Keeney and Raiffa approach to multiattribute decision analysis are described. Topics discussed include the concepts of decision alternatives, outcomes, objectives, attributes and their states, attribute utility functions, and the necessary independence properties for the attribute states to be aggregated into a numerical representation of the preferences of the decision maker for the outcomes and decision alternatives.

  20. [HEALTH ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FAIR DECISION MAKING].

    PubMed

    Jeantet, Marine; Lopez, Alain

    2015-09-01

    Health technology assessment consists in evaluating the incremental cost-benefit ratio of a medicine, a medical device, a vaccine, a health strategy, in comparison to alternative health technologies. This form of socio-eoonomic evaluation aims at optimizing resource allocation within the health system. By setting the terms of valid alternatives, it is useful to highlight public choices, but it cannot in itself make the decision as regards the public funding of patient's access to the considered technology. The decision to include such technology in the basket of health goods and sercices covered, the levels and conditions of the coverage, also result from budget constraints, from economic situation and from a political vision about health policy, social protection and public expenditure. Accordingly, health economic analysis must be implemented on specific and targeted topics. The decision making process, with its health, economic and ethical stakes, calls for a public procedure and debate, based on shared information and argument. Otherwise, health system regulation, confronted with radical and costly innovations in the coming years, will become harder to handle. This requires the development of health economic research teams able to contribute to this assessment exercise. PMID:26619723

  1. Training in Decision-making Strategies: An approach to enhance students' competence to deal with socio-scientific issues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gresch, Helge; Hasselhorn, Marcus; Bögeholz, Susanne

    2013-10-01

    Dealing with socio-scientific issues in science classes enables students to participate productively in controversial discussions concerning ethical topics, such as sustainable development. In this respect, well-structured decision-making processes are essential for elaborate reasoning. To foster decision-making competence, a computer-based programme was developed that trains secondary school students (grades 11-13) in decision-making strategies. The main research question is: does training students to use these strategies foster decision-making competence? In addition, the influence of meta-decision aids was examined. Students conducted a task analysis to select an appropriate strategy prior to the decision-making process. Hence, the second research question is: does combining decision-making training with a task analysis enhance decision-making competence at a higher rate? To answer these questions, 386 students were tested in a pre-post-follow-up control-group design that included two training groups (decision-making strategies/decision-making strategies combined with a task analysis) and a control group (decision-making with additional ecological information instead of strategic training). An open-ended questionnaire was used to assess decision-making competence in situations related to sustainable development. The decision-making training led to a significant improvement in the post-test and the follow-up, which was administered three months after the training. Long-term effects on the quality of the students' decisions were evident for both training groups. Gains in competence when reflecting upon the decision-making processes of others were found, to a lesser extent, in the training group that received the additional meta-decision training. In conclusion, training in decision-making strategies is a promising approach to deal with socio-scientific issues related to sustainable development.

  2. Decision-theoretic refinement planning: a new method for clinical decision analysis.

    PubMed Central

    Doan, A.; Haddawy, P.; Kahn, C. E.

    1995-01-01

    Clinical decision analysis seeks to identify the optimal management strategy by modelling the uncertainty and risks entailed in the diagnosis, natural history, and treatment of a particular problem or disorder. Decision trees are the most frequently used model in clinical decision analysis, but can be tedious to construct, cumbersome to use, and computationally prohibitive, especially with large, complex decision problems. We present a new method for clinical decision analysis that combines the techniques of decision theory and artificial intelligence. Our model uses a modular representation of knowledge that simplifies model building and enables more fully automated decision making. Moreover, the model exploits problem structures to yield better computational efficiency. As an example we apply our techniques to the problem of management of acute deep venous thrombosis. PMID:8563289

  3. Fuzzy Logic Approaches to Multi-Objective Decision-Making in Aerospace Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hardy, Terry L.

    1994-01-01

    Fuzzy logic allows for the quantitative representation of multi-objective decision-making problems which have vague or fuzzy objectives and parameters. As such, fuzzy logic approaches are well-suited to situations where alternatives must be assessed by using criteria that are subjective and of unequal importance. This paper presents an overview of fuzzy logic and provides sample applications from the aerospace industry. Applications include an evaluation of vendor proposals, an analysis of future space vehicle options, and the selection of a future space propulsion system. On the basis of the results provided in this study, fuzzy logic provides a unique perspective on the decision-making process, allowing the evaluator to assess the degree to which each option meets the evaluation criteria. Future decision-making should take full advantage of fuzzy logic methods to complement existing approaches in the selection of alternatives.

  4. Setting the optimal erythrocyte protoporphyrin screening decision threshold for lead poisoning: a decision analytic approach

    SciTech Connect

    DeBaun, M.R.; Sox, H.C. Jr. )

    1991-07-01

    Erythrocyte protoporphyrin (EP) was introduced in the 1970s as an inexpensive screening test for lead poisoning. As greater knowledge of lead poisoning has accumulated, the recommended EP level at which further evaluation for lead poisoning should be initiated has been lowered from greater than or equal to 50 micrograms/dL to greater than or equal to 35 micrograms/dL. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the utility of this EP threshold. A receiver operator characteristic curve was constructed to assess the relationship between the true-positive rate and false-positive rate of EP at various decision thresholds. The receiver operator characteristic curve was constructed with data from the second National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 1976 to 1980, which included 2673 children 6 years of age or younger who had both blood lead and EP level determinations. Decision analysis was then used to determine the optimal EP decision threshold for detecting a blood lead level greater than or equal to 25 micrograms/dL. The receiver operator characteristic curve demonstrated that EP is a poor predictor of a blood lead level greater than or equal to 25 micrograms/dL. At the currently recommended EP decision threshold of 35 micrograms/dL, the true-positive rates and false-positive rates of EP are 0.23 and 0.04, respectively. As a result of the inadequate performance of EP screening for lead poisoning, when the prevalence of lead poisoning is greater than 8%, there is no EP decision threshold that optimizes the relationship between the cost of screening normal children and the benefit of detecting lead-poisoned children. Erythrocyte protoporphyrin measurement is not sufficiently sensitive to be recommended uniformly as a screening test for lead poisoning.

  5. [Rational drug use: an economic approach to decision making].

    PubMed

    Mota, Daniel Marques; da Silva, Marcelo Gurgel Carlos; Sudo, Elisa Cazue; Ortún, Vicente

    2008-04-01

    The present article approaches rational drug use (RDU) from the economical point of view. The implementation of RDU implies in costs and involves acquisition of knowledge and behavioral changes of several agents. The difficulties in implementing RDU may be due to shortage problems, information asymmetry, lack of information, uncertain clinical decisions, externalities, time-price, incentives for drug prescribers and dispensers, drug prescriber preferences and marginal utility. Health authorities, among other agencies, must therefore regularize, rationalize and control drug use to minimize inefficiency in pharmaceutical care and to prevent exposing the population to unnecessary health risks.

  6. A Wireless Sensor Network-Based Approach with Decision Support for Monitoring Lake Water Quality.

    PubMed

    Huang, Xiaoci; Yi, Jianjun; Chen, Shaoli; Zhu, Xiaomin

    2015-01-01

    Online monitoring and water quality analysis of lakes are urgently needed. A feasible and effective approach is to use a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN). Lake water environments, like other real world environments, present many changing and unpredictable situations. To ensure flexibility in such an environment, the WSN node has to be prepared to deal with varying situations. This paper presents a WSN self-configuration approach for lake water quality monitoring. The approach is based on the integration of a semantic framework, where a reasoner can make decisions on the configuration of WSN services. We present a WSN ontology and the relevant water quality monitoring context information, which considers its suitability in a pervasive computing environment. We also propose a rule-based reasoning engine that is used to conduct decision support through reasoning techniques and context-awareness. To evaluate the approach, we conduct usability experiments and performance benchmarks. PMID:26610496

  7. A Wireless Sensor Network-Based Approach with Decision Support for Monitoring Lake Water Quality

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Xiaoci; Yi, Jianjun; Chen, Shaoli; Zhu, Xiaomin

    2015-01-01

    Online monitoring and water quality analysis of lakes are urgently needed. A feasible and effective approach is to use a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN). Lake water environments, like other real world environments, present many changing and unpredictable situations. To ensure flexibility in such an environment, the WSN node has to be prepared to deal with varying situations. This paper presents a WSN self-configuration approach for lake water quality monitoring. The approach is based on the integration of a semantic framework, where a reasoner can make decisions on the configuration of WSN services. We present a WSN ontology and the relevant water quality monitoring context information, which considers its suitability in a pervasive computing environment. We also propose a rule-based reasoning engine that is used to conduct decision support through reasoning techniques and context-awareness. To evaluate the approach, we conduct usability experiments and performance benchmarks. PMID:26610496

  8. ISHM Decision Analysis Tool: Operations Concept

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2006-01-01

    The state-of-the-practice Shuttle caution and warning system warns the crew of conditions that may create a hazard to orbiter operations and/or crew. Depending on the severity of the alarm, the crew is alerted with a combination of sirens, tones, annunciator lights, or fault messages. The combination of anomalies (and hence alarms) indicates the problem. Even with much training, determining what problem a particular combination represents is not trivial. In many situations, an automated diagnosis system can help the crew more easily determine an underlying root cause. Due to limitations of diagnosis systems,however, it is not always possible to explain a set of alarms with a single root cause. Rather, the system generates a set of hypotheses that the crew can select from. The ISHM Decision Analysis Tool (IDAT) assists with this task. It presents the crew relevant information that could help them resolve the ambiguity of multiple root causes and determine a method for mitigating the problem. IDAT follows graphical user interface design guidelines and incorporates a decision analysis system. I describe both of these aspects.

  9. The Risky Shift in Policy Decision Making: A Comparative Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilpert, B.; And Others

    1976-01-01

    Based on analysis of data on 432 decision-makers from around the world, this study examines the decision-making phenomenon that individuals tend to move toward riskier decisions after group discussion. Findings of the analysis contradicted earlier studies, showing a consistent shift toward greater risk avoidance. Available from Elsevier Scientific…

  10. Task Analysis: A Top-Down Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harmon, Paul

    1983-01-01

    This approach to task analysis includes descriptions of (1) inputs, outputs, and jobs; (2) flow of materials and decisions between jobs; (3) inputs, major tasks, and outputs of each job; (4) sequence of steps for major tasks; (5) heuristics/algorithms for each sequence step; and (6) information needed to use heuristics algorithms. (EAO)

  11. The approaches for the decision support in case natural hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vyazilov, Evgeny; Chunyaev, Nikita

    2013-04-01

    In spite of using highly automated systems of measurement, collecting, storing, handling, prediction and delivery of information on the marine environment, including natural hazards, the amount of damage from natural phenomena increases. Because information on the marine environment delivered to the industrial facilities not effectively used. To such information pays little attention by individual decision-makers and not always perform preventive measures necessary for reduce and prevent damage. Automation of information support will improve the efficiency management of the marine activities. In Russia develops "The Unified system of the information about World ocean" (ESIMO, http://esimo.ru/), that integrates observation, analysis, prognostic and climate data. Necessary to create tools to automatic selection natural disasters through all integrated data; notification decision-makers about arising natural hazards - software agent; provision of information in a compact form for the decision-makers; assessment of possible damage and costs to the preventive measures; providing information on the impacts of environment on economic facilities and recommendations for decision-making; the use of maps, diagrams, tables for reporting. Tools for automatic selection designed for identification of natural phenomena based on the resources ESIMO and corresponding critical values of the indicators environment. The result of this module will be constantly updated database of critical situations of environment for each object or technological process. To operational notify and provide current information about natural hazards proposes using a software agent that is installed on the computer decision-makers, which is activated in case critical situations and provides a minimum of information. In the event of natural disaster software agent should be able to inform decision-makers about this, providing information on the current situation, and the possibility for more and detailed

  12. Application of decision tree on land suitability analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hou, Yajuan; Liu, Yaolin; Ren, Zhouqiao

    2008-12-01

    With increasing volume of data in modern science, there has been a rapid expansion of interests and researches on data mining, which is an increasingly popular tool in data analysis to obtain implicit knowledge. Decision Tree (DT), as one of widespread used classification approaches in data mining, is used successfully in many diverse areas. This paper attempts to show how to apply Decision Tree on land suitability analysis and make some conclusions for its application. Firstly, the approach of application of DT on Land Suitability and the popular learning algorithm is discussed. Then 3 towns' land units in Hainan province are selected as study case to demonstrate our approach by C4.5 implemented using C++ language, and the obtained results are compared to the results in the literature and are checked by random sample investigation. The major conclusion is that DT is suitable for land suitability analysis, by which a high veracity result can be obtained, and the obtained classifying knowledge is readable and can be interpreted well. In some sense, it can adjust knowledge by updated training dataset naturally and avoid the highly dependence with experience.

  13. Application of portfolio theory in decision tree analysis.

    PubMed

    Galligan, D T; Ramberg, C; Curtis, C; Ferguson, J; Fetrow, J

    1991-07-01

    A general application of portfolio analysis for herd decision tree analysis is described. In the herd environment, this methodology offers a means of employing population-based decision strategies that can help the producer control economic variation in expected return from a given set of decision options. An economic decision tree model regarding the use of prostaglandin in dairy cows with undetected estrus was used to determine the expected return of the decisions to use prostaglandin and breed on a timed basis, use prostaglandin and then breed on sign of estrus, or breed on signs of estrus. The risk attributes of these decision alternatives were calculated from the decision tree, and portfolio theory was used to find the efficient decision combinations (portfolios with the highest return for a given variance). The resulting combinations of decisions could be used to control return variation.

  14. Multi-stakeholder decision analysis and comparative risk assessment for reuse-recycle oriented e-waste management strategies: a game theoretic approach.

    PubMed

    Kaushal, Rajendra Kumar; Nema, Arvind K

    2013-09-01

    This article deals with assessment of the potential health risk posed by carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic substances, namely lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), copper, chromium (CrVI), zinc, nickel and mercury, present in e-waste. A multi-objective, multi-stakeholder approach based on strategic game theory model has been developed considering cost, as well as human health risk. The trade-off due to cost difference between a hazardous substances-free (HSF) and a hazardous substance (HS)-containing desktop computer, and the risk posed by them at the time of disposal, has been analyzed. The cancer risk due to dust inhalation for workers at a recycling site in Bangalore for Pb, Cr(VI) and Cd was found to be 4, 33 and 101 in 1 million respectively. Pb and Cr(VI) result in a very high risk owing to dust ingestion at slums near the recycling site--175 and 81 in 1 million for children, and 24 and 11 in 1 million for adults respectively. The concentration of Pb at a battery workshop in Mayapuri, Delhi (hazard quotient = 3.178) was found to pose adverse health hazards. The government may impose an appropriate penalty on the land disposal of computer waste and/or may give an incentive to manufacturer for producing HSF computers through, for example, relaxing taxes, but there should be no such incentive for manufacturing HS-containing computers.

  15. Multi-stakeholder decision analysis and comparative risk assessment for reuse-recycle oriented e-waste management strategies: a game theoretic approach.

    PubMed

    Kaushal, Rajendra Kumar; Nema, Arvind K

    2013-09-01

    This article deals with assessment of the potential health risk posed by carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic substances, namely lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), copper, chromium (CrVI), zinc, nickel and mercury, present in e-waste. A multi-objective, multi-stakeholder approach based on strategic game theory model has been developed considering cost, as well as human health risk. The trade-off due to cost difference between a hazardous substances-free (HSF) and a hazardous substance (HS)-containing desktop computer, and the risk posed by them at the time of disposal, has been analyzed. The cancer risk due to dust inhalation for workers at a recycling site in Bangalore for Pb, Cr(VI) and Cd was found to be 4, 33 and 101 in 1 million respectively. Pb and Cr(VI) result in a very high risk owing to dust ingestion at slums near the recycling site--175 and 81 in 1 million for children, and 24 and 11 in 1 million for adults respectively. The concentration of Pb at a battery workshop in Mayapuri, Delhi (hazard quotient = 3.178) was found to pose adverse health hazards. The government may impose an appropriate penalty on the land disposal of computer waste and/or may give an incentive to manufacturer for producing HSF computers through, for example, relaxing taxes, but there should be no such incentive for manufacturing HS-containing computers. PMID:23856790

  16. Cost/Effort Drivers and Decision Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Seidel, Jonathan

    2010-01-01

    Engineering trade study analyses demand consideration of performance, cost and schedule impacts across the spectrum of alternative concepts and in direct reference to product requirements. Prior to detailed design, requirements are too often ill-defined (only goals ) and prone to creep, extending well beyond the Systems Requirements Review. Though lack of engineering design and definitive requirements inhibit the ability to perform detailed cost analyses, affordability trades still comprise the foundation of these future product decisions and must evolve in concert. This presentation excerpts results of the recent NASA subsonic Engine Concept Study for an Advanced Single Aisle Transport to demonstrate an affordability evaluation of performance characteristics and the subsequent impacts on engine architecture decisions. Applying the Process Based Economic Analysis Tool (PBEAT), development cost, production cost, as well as operation and support costs were considered in a traditional weighted ranking of the following system-level figures of merit: mission fuel burn, take-off noise, NOx emissions, and cruise speed. Weighting factors were varied to ascertain the architecture ranking sensitivities to these performance figures of merit with companion cost considerations. A more detailed examination of supersonic variable cycle engine cost is also briefly presented, with observations and recommendations for further refinements.

  17. Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardin, D. M.; Keiser, K.; Graves, S. J.; Conover, H.; Ebersole, S.

    2009-12-01

    Since the year 2000, Eastern Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida panhandle have been affected by 28 tropical storms, seven of which were hurricanes. These tropical cyclones have significantly altered normal coastal processes and characteristics in the Gulf region through sediment disturbance. Although tides, seasonality, and agricultural development influence suspended sediment and sediment deposition over periods of time, tropical storm activity has the capability of moving the largest sediment loads in the shortest periods of time for coastal areas. The importance of sediments upon water quality, coastal erosion, habitats and nutrients has made their study and monitoring vital to decision makers in the region. Currently agencies such as United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), NASA, and Geological Survey of Alabama (GSA) are employing a variety of in-situ and airborne based measurements to assess and monitor sediment loading and deposition. These methods provide highly accurate information but are limited in geographic range, are not continuous over a region and, in the case of airborne LIDAR are expensive and do not recur on a regular basis. Multi-temporal and multi-spectral satellite imagery that shows tropical-storm-induced suspended sediment and storm-surge sediment deposits can provide decision makers with immediate and long-term information about the impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes. It can also be valuable for those conducting research and for projects related to coastal issues such as recovery, planning, management, and mitigation. The recently awarded Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support will generate decision support products using NASA satellite observations from MODIS, Landsat and SeaWiFS instruments to support resource management, planning, and decision making activities in the Gulf of Mexico. Specifically, SANDS will generate decision support products that address the impacts of tropical storms

  18. Decision analysis of treatment choices in the osteochondroses.

    PubMed

    Bunch, W H

    1981-01-01

    Physicians tend to decry the lack of data on which they can make decisions. This is commendable, and all should encourage the pursuit of better data and more precise analysis. But decisions must be made, and each physician must deal with what data are available and evaluate them against all the general uncertainties. Equally important are the values that we place on the outcome of treatment. Much of the disagreement among physicians about treatment protocols involves a difference in values. While this is not necessarily bad, it points to the need to consider explicitly the value we place on a result or the morbidity possibly accompanying that result. In the osteochondroses, consideration of values will protect patients from overzealous treatment. Finally, the formality of a decision process should not necessarily modify a plan of treatment based on fundamentally sound principles, intuition, and anecdotal experience. Regardless of which factors represent the basis for an individual surgeon's selection of a particular approach, evaluation of both desirable and undesirable aspects of each alternative prevents impulsive acceptance of the most recently described, often unproven operation. Salter's aphorism: "The decision is more important than the incision," is particularly applicable in treatment of the osteochondroses.

  19. Demographics of reintroduced populations: estimation, modeling, and decision analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Armstrong, Doug P.

    2013-01-01

    Reintroduction can be necessary for recovering populations of threatened species. However, the success of reintroduction efforts has been poorer than many biologists and managers would hope. To increase the benefits gained from reintroduction, management decision making should be couched within formal decision-analytic frameworks. Decision analysis is a structured process for informing decision making that recognizes that all decisions have a set of components—objectives, alternative management actions, predictive models, and optimization methods—that can be decomposed, analyzed, and recomposed to facilitate optimal, transparent decisions. Because the outcome of interest in reintroduction efforts is typically population viability or related metrics, models used in decision analysis efforts for reintroductions will need to include population models. In this special section of the Journal of Wildlife Management, we highlight examples of the construction and use of models for informing management decisions in reintroduced populations. In this introductory contribution, we review concepts in decision analysis, population modeling for analysis of decisions in reintroduction settings, and future directions. Increased use of formal decision analysis, including adaptive management, has great potential to inform reintroduction efforts. Adopting these practices will require close collaboration among managers, decision analysts, population modelers, and field biologists.

  20. DECISION ANALYSIS OF INCINERATION COSTS IN SUPERFUND SITE REMEDIATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This study examines the decision-making process of the remedial design (RD) phase of on-site incineration projects conducted at Superfund sites. Decisions made during RD affect the cost and schedule of remedial action (RA). Decision analysis techniques are used to determine the...

  1. Interstage Flammability Analysis Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Little, Jeffrey K.; Eppard, William M.

    2011-01-01

    The Interstage of the Ares I launch platform houses several key components which are on standby during First Stage operation: the Reaction Control System (ReCS), the Upper Stage (US) Thrust Vector Control (TVC) and the J-2X with the Main Propulsion System (MPS) propellant feed system. Therefore potentially dangerous leaks of propellants could develop. The Interstage leaks analysis addresses the concerns of localized mixing of hydrogen and oxygen gases to produce deflagration zones in the Interstage of the Ares I launch vehicle during First Stage operation. This report details the approach taken to accomplish the analysis. Specified leakage profiles and actual flammability results are not presented due to proprietary and security restrictions. The interior volume formed by the Interstage walls, bounding interfaces with the Upper and First Stages, and surrounding the J2-X engine was modeled using Loci-CHEM to assess the potential for flammable gas mixtures to develop during First Stage operations. The transient analysis included a derived flammability indicator based on mixture ratios to maintain achievable simulation times. Validation of results was based on a comparison to Interstage pressure profiles outlined in prior NASA studies. The approach proved useful in the bounding of flammability risk in supporting program hazard reviews.

  2. A Developmental Approach to the Teaching of Ethical Decision Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neukrug, Edward S.

    1996-01-01

    Examines the newly adopted code of ethics, reviews some ethical decision-making models, and hypothesizes how the maturity of a student might mediate the effective use of codes and of decision-making models. Provides a model for human service educators that integrates ethical guidelines and ethical decision-making models. (RJM)

  3. An information theory analysis of spatial decisions in cognitive development

    PubMed Central

    Scott, Nicole M.; Sera, Maria D.; Georgopoulos, Apostolos P.

    2015-01-01

    Performance in a cognitive task can be considered as the outcome of a decision-making process operating across various knowledge domains or aspects of a single domain. Therefore, an analysis of these decisions in various tasks can shed light on the interplay and integration of these domains (or elements within a single domain) as they are associated with specific task characteristics. In this study, we applied an information theoretic approach to assess quantitatively the gain of knowledge across various elements of the cognitive domain of spatial, relational knowledge, as a function of development. Specifically, we examined changing spatial relational knowledge from ages 5 to 10 years. Our analyses consisted of a two-step process. First, we performed a hierarchical clustering analysis on the decisions made in 16 different tasks of spatial relational knowledge to determine which tasks were performed similarly at each age group as well as to discover how the tasks clustered together. We next used two measures of entropy to capture the gradual emergence of order in the development of relational knowledge. These measures of “cognitive entropy” were defined based on two independent aspects of chunking, namely (1) the number of clusters formed at each age group, and (2) the distribution of tasks across the clusters. We found that both measures of entropy decreased with age in a quadratic fashion and were positively and linearly correlated. The decrease in entropy and, therefore, gain of information during development was accompanied by improved performance. These results document, for the first time, the orderly and progressively structured “chunking” of decisions across the development of spatial relational reasoning and quantify this gain within a formal information-theoretic framework. PMID:25698915

  4. An information theory analysis of spatial decisions in cognitive development.

    PubMed

    Scott, Nicole M; Sera, Maria D; Georgopoulos, Apostolos P

    2015-01-01

    Performance in a cognitive task can be considered as the outcome of a decision-making process operating across various knowledge domains or aspects of a single domain. Therefore, an analysis of these decisions in various tasks can shed light on the interplay and integration of these domains (or elements within a single domain) as they are associated with specific task characteristics. In this study, we applied an information theoretic approach to assess quantitatively the gain of knowledge across various elements of the cognitive domain of spatial, relational knowledge, as a function of development. Specifically, we examined changing spatial relational knowledge from ages 5 to 10 years. Our analyses consisted of a two-step process. First, we performed a hierarchical clustering analysis on the decisions made in 16 different tasks of spatial relational knowledge to determine which tasks were performed similarly at each age group as well as to discover how the tasks clustered together. We next used two measures of entropy to capture the gradual emergence of order in the development of relational knowledge. These measures of "cognitive entropy" were defined based on two independent aspects of chunking, namely (1) the number of clusters formed at each age group, and (2) the distribution of tasks across the clusters. We found that both measures of entropy decreased with age in a quadratic fashion and were positively and linearly correlated. The decrease in entropy and, therefore, gain of information during development was accompanied by improved performance. These results document, for the first time, the orderly and progressively structured "chunking" of decisions across the development of spatial relational reasoning and quantify this gain within a formal information-theoretic framework.

  5. DAUBERT DECISION APPLIED TO GEOSPATIAL ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Protection of the environment is, in part, dependent on the quality of data used in decision making. Whether the decisions are part of the scientific process or relate to application of the laws governing people and their living conditions, good quality data are required/needed ...

  6. An information theoretic approach for generating an aircraft avoidance Markov Decision Process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weinert, Andrew J.

    Developing a collision avoidance system that can meet safety standards required of commercial aviation is challenging. A dynamic programming approach to collision avoidance has been developed to optimize and generate logics that are robust to the complex dynamics of the national airspace. The current approach represents the aircraft avoidance problem as Markov Decision Processes and independently optimizes a horizontal and vertical maneuver avoidance logics. This is a result of the current memory requirements for each logic, simply combining the logics will result in a significantly larger representation. The "curse of dimensionality" makes it computationally inefficient and unfeasible to optimize this larger representation. However, existing and future collision avoidance systems have mostly defined the decision process by hand. In response, a simulation-based framework was built to better understand how each potential state quantifies the aircraft avoidance problem with regards to safety and operational components. The framework leverages recent advances in signals processing and database, while enabling the highest fidelity analysis of Monte Carlo aircraft encounter simulations to date. This framework enabled the calculation of how well each state of the decision process quantifies the collision risk and the associated memory requirements. Using this analysis, a collision avoidance logic that leverages both horizontal and vertical actions was built and optimized using this simulation based approach.

  7. An Integrated Approach to Life Cycle Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chytka, T. M.; Brown, R. W.; Shih, A. T.; Reeves, J. D.; Dempsey, J. A.

    2006-01-01

    Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) is the evaluation of the impacts that design decisions have on a system and provides a framework for identifying and evaluating design benefits and burdens associated with the life cycles of space transportation systems from a "cradle-to-grave" approach. Sometimes called life cycle assessment, life cycle approach, or "cradle to grave analysis", it represents a rapidly emerging family of tools and techniques designed to be a decision support methodology and aid in the development of sustainable systems. The implementation of a Life Cycle Analysis can vary and may take many forms; from global system-level uncertainty-centered analysis to the assessment of individualized discriminatory metrics. This paper will focus on a proven LCA methodology developed by the Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate (SACD) at NASA Langley Research Center to quantify and assess key LCA discriminatory metrics, in particular affordability, reliability, maintainability, and operability. This paper will address issues inherent in Life Cycle Analysis including direct impacts, such as system development cost and crew safety, as well as indirect impacts, which often take the form of coupled metrics (i.e., the cost of system unreliability). Since LCA deals with the analysis of space vehicle system conceptual designs, it is imperative to stress that the goal of LCA is not to arrive at the answer but, rather, to provide important inputs to a broader strategic planning process, allowing the managers to make risk-informed decisions, and increase the likelihood of meeting mission success criteria.

  8. Factual Approach in Decision Making - the Prerequisite of Success in Quality Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kučerová, Marta; Škůrková Lestyánszka, Katarína

    2013-12-01

    In quality management system as well as in other managerial systems, effective decisions must be always based on the data and information analysis, i.e. based on facts, in accordance with the factual approach principle in quality management. It is therefore necessary to measure and collect the data and information about processes. The article presents the results of a conducted survey, which was focused on application of factual approach in decision making. It also offers suggestions for improvements of application of the principle in business practice. This article was prepared using the research results of VEGA project No. 1/0229/08 "Perspectives of the quality management development in relation to the requirements of market in the Slovak Republic".

  9. The prediction of breast cancer biopsy outcomes using two CAD approaches that both emphasize an intelligible decision process

    SciTech Connect

    Elter, M.; Schulz-Wendtland, R.; Wittenberg, T.

    2007-11-15

    Mammography is the most effective method for breast cancer screening available today. However, the low positive predictive value of breast biopsy resulting from mammogram interpretation leads to approximately 70% unnecessary biopsies with benign outcomes. To reduce the high number of unnecessary breast biopsies, several computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) systems have been proposed in the last several years. These systems help physicians in their decision to perform a breast biopsy on a suspicious lesion seen in a mammogram or to perform a short term follow-up examination instead. We present two novel CAD approaches that both emphasize an intelligible decision process to predict breast biopsy outcomes from BI-RADS findings. An intelligible reasoning process is an important requirement for the acceptance of CAD systems by physicians. The first approach induces a global model based on decison-tree learning. The second approach is based on case-based reasoning and applies an entropic similarity measure. We have evaluated the performance of both CAD approaches on two large publicly available mammography reference databases using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, bootstrap sampling, and the ANOVA statistical significance test. Both approaches outperform the diagnosis decisions of the physicians. Hence, both systems have the potential to reduce the number of unnecessary breast biopsies in clinical practice. A comparison of the performance of the proposed decision tree and CBR approaches with a state of the art approach based on artificial neural networks (ANN) shows that the CBR approach performs slightly better than the ANN approach, which in turn results in slightly better performance than the decision-tree approach. The differences are statistically significant (p value <0.001). On 2100 masses extracted from the DDSM database, the CRB approach for example resulted in an area under the ROC curve of A(z)=0.89{+-}0.01, the decision-tree approach in A(z)=0

  10. Decision Analysis For A Sustainable Environment, Economy, & Society

    EPA Science Inventory

    Environmental decisions are often made without consideration of the roles that ecosystem services play. Most decision-makers do not currently have access to useful or usable methods and approaches when they are presented with choices that will have significant ecosystem impacts....

  11. Decision Analysis for a Sustainable Environment, Economy & Society

    EPA Science Inventory

    Environmental decisions are often made without consideration of the roles that ecosystem services play. Most decision-makers do not currently have access to useful or usable methods and approaches when they are presented with choices that will have significant ecosystem impacts. ...

  12. New approaches for real time decision support systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hair, D. Charles; Pickslay, Kent

    1994-01-01

    NCCOSC RDT&E Division (NRaD) is conducting research into ways of improving decision support systems (DSS) that are used in tactical Navy decision making situations. The research has focused on the incorporation of findings about naturalistic decision-making processes into the design of the DSS. As part of that research, two computer tools were developed that model the two primary naturalistic decision-making strategies used by Navy experts in tactical settings. Current work is exploring how best to incorporate the information produced by those tools into an existing simulation of current Navy decision support systems. This work has implications for any applications involving the need to make decisions under time constraints, based on incomplete or ambiguous data.

  13. A Decision Analytic Approach to Exposure-Based Chemical Prioritization

    PubMed Central

    Mitchell, Jade; Pabon, Nicolas; Collier, Zachary A.; Egeghy, Peter P.; Cohen-Hubal, Elaine; Linkov, Igor; Vallero, Daniel A.

    2013-01-01

    The manufacture of novel synthetic chemicals has increased in volume and variety, but often the environmental and health risks are not fully understood in terms of toxicity and, in particular, exposure. While efforts to assess risks have generally been effective when sufficient data are available, the hazard and exposure data necessary to assess risks adequately are unavailable for the vast majority of chemicals in commerce. The US Environmental Protection Agency has initiated the ExpoCast Program to develop tools for rapid chemical evaluation based on potential for exposure. In this context, a model is presented in which chemicals are evaluated based on inherent chemical properties and behaviorally-based usage characteristics over the chemical’s life cycle. These criteria are assessed and integrated within a decision analytic framework, facilitating rapid assessment and prioritization for future targeted testing and systems modeling. A case study outlines the prioritization process using 51 chemicals. The results show a preliminary relative ranking of chemicals based on exposure potential. The strength of this approach is the ability to integrate relevant statistical and mechanistic data with expert judgment, allowing for an initial tier assessment that can further inform targeted testing and risk management strategies. PMID:23940664

  14. Stochastic dominance: an approach to decision making under risk.

    PubMed

    Buckley, J J

    1986-03-01

    This paper introduces stochastic dominance as a technique to reduce the set of possible actions that a decision maker must consider in a decision problem under risk. The procedure usually does not choose an optimal action, but instead eliminates certain actions as unacceptable. Very little need be known about the decision maker's utility function. Two possible applications are presented: upgrading buildings to better withstand an earthquake; and choosing a site for a LNG facility.

  15. Markov Modeling with Soft Aggregation for Safety and Decision Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    COOPER,J. ARLIN

    1999-09-01

    The methodology in this report improves on some of the limitations of many conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. A top-down mathematical approach is developed for decomposing systems and for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers. A ''Markov-like'' model is developed that facilitates combining (aggregating) inputs into overall metrics and decision aids, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. A major goal of Markov modeling is to help convey the top-down system perspective. One of the constituent methodologies allows metrics to be weighted according to significance of the attribute and aggregated nonlinearly as to contribution. This aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed ''soft'' mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on ''overlap'' of the factors as well as by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on considering new controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to obtain significant information% including cyclic information for the decision process. A practical example from the air transportation industry is used to demonstrate application of the methodology. Illustrations are given for developing a structure (along with recommended inputs and weights) for air transportation oversight at three different levels, for developing and using cycle information, for developing Importance and

  16. Using explicit decision rules to manage issues of justice, risk, and ethics in decision analysis: when is it not rational to maximize expected utility?

    PubMed

    Deber, R B; Goel, V

    1990-01-01

    Concepts of justice, risk, and ethics can be merged with decision analysis by requiring the analyst to specify explicity a decision rule or sequence of rules. Decision rules are categorized by whether they consider: 1) aspects of outcome distributions beyond central tendencies; 2) probabilities as well as utilities of outcomes; and 3) means as well as ends. This formulation suggests that distribution-based decision rules could address both risk (for an individual) and justice (for the population). Rational choice under risk if choices are one-time only (vs. repeated events) or if one branch contains unlikely but disastrous outcomes might ignore probability information. Incorporating risk attitude into decision rules rather than utilities could facilitate use of multiattribute approaches to measuring outcomes. Certain ethical concerns could be addressed by prior specification of rules for allowing particular branches. Examples, including selection of polio vaccine strategies, are discussed, and theoretical and practical implications of a decision rule approach noted. PMID:2196412

  17. Decision Aid Tool and Ontology-Based Reasoning for Critical Infrastructure Vulnerabilities and Threats Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choraś, Michał; Flizikowski, Adam; Kozik, Rafał; Hołubowicz, Witold

    In this paper, a decision aid tool (DAT) for Critical Infrastructure threats analysis and ranking is presented. We propose the ontology-based approach that provides classification, relationships and reasoning about vulnerabilities and threats of the critical infrastructures. Our approach is a part of research within INSPIRE project for increasing security and protection through infrastructure resilience.

  18. Improving "At-Action" Decision-Making in Team Sports through a Holistic Coaching Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Light, Richard L.; Harvey, Stephen; Mouchet, Alain

    2014-01-01

    This article draws on Game Sense pedagogy and complex learning theory (CLT) to make suggestions for improving decision-making ability in team sports by adopting a holistic approach to coaching with a focus on decision-making "at-action". It emphasizes the complexity of decision-making and the need to focus on the game as a whole entity,…

  19. How to use multi-criteria decision analysis methods for reimbursement decision-making in healthcare: a step-by-step guide.

    PubMed

    Diaby, Vakaramoko; Goeree, Ron

    2014-02-01

    In recent years, the quest for more comprehensiveness, structure and transparency in reimbursement decision-making in healthcare has prompted the research into alternative decision-making frameworks. In this environment, multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is arising as a valuable tool to support healthcare decision-making. In this paper, we present the main MCDA decision support methods (elementary methods, value-based measurement models, goal programming models and outranking models) using a case study approach. For each family of methods, an example of how an MCDA model would operate in a real decision-making context is presented from a critical perspective, highlighting the parameters setting, the selection of the appropriate evaluation model as well as the role of sensitivity and robustness analyses. This study aims to provide a step-by-step guide on how to use MCDA methods for reimbursement decision-making in healthcare.

  20. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    PubMed

    Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L James

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of

  1. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management

    PubMed Central

    Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L. James

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of

  2. Towards a controlled sensitivity analysis of model development decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, Martyn; Nijssen, Bart

    2016-04-01

    The current generation of hydrologic models have followed a myriad of different development paths, making it difficult for the community to test underlying hypotheses and identify a clear path to model improvement. Model comparison studies have been undertaken to explore model differences, but these studies have not been able to meaningfully attribute inter-model differences in predictive ability to individual model components because there are often too many structural and implementation differences among the models considered. As a consequence, model comparison studies to date have provided limited insight into the causes of differences in model behavior, and model development has often relied on the inspiration and experience of individual modelers rather than a systematic analysis of model shortcomings. This presentation will discuss a unified approach to process-based hydrologic modeling to enable controlled and systematic analysis of multiple model representations (hypotheses) of hydrologic processes and scaling behavior. Our approach, which we term the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA), formulates a general set of conservation equations, providing the flexibility to experiment with different spatial representations, different flux parameterizations, different model parameter values, and different time stepping schemes. We will discuss the use of SUMMA to systematically analyze different model development decisions, focusing on both analysis of simulations for intensively instrumented research watersheds as well as simulations across a global dataset of FLUXNET sites. The intent of the presentation is to demonstrate how the systematic analysis of model shortcomings can help identify model weaknesses and inform future model development priorities.

  3. Decentralisation of Health Services in Fiji: A Decision Space Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Mohammed, Jalal; North, Nicola; Ashton, Toni

    2016-01-01

    Background: Decentralisation aims to bring services closer to the community and has been advocated in the health sector to improve quality, access and equity, and to empower local agencies, increase innovation and efficiency and bring healthcare and decision-making as close as possible to where people live and work. Fiji has attempted two approaches to decentralisation. The current approach reflects a model of deconcentration of outpatient services from the tertiary level hospital to the peripheral health centres in the Suva subdivision. Methods: Using a modified decision space approach developed by Bossert, this study measures decision space created in five broad categories (finance, service organisation, human resources, access rules, and governance rules) within the decentralised services. Results: Fiji’s centrally managed historical-based allocation of financial resources and management of human resources resulted in no decision space for decentralised agents. Narrow decision space was created in the service organisation category where, with limited decision space created over access rules, Fiji has seen greater usage of its decentralised health centres. There remains limited decision space in governance. Conclusion: The current wave of decentralisation reveals that, whilst the workload has shifted from the tertiary hospital to the peripheral health centres, it has been accompanied by limited transfer of administrative authority, suggesting that Fiji’s deconcentration reflects the transfer of workload only with decision-making in the five functional areas remaining largely centralised. As such, the benefits of decentralisation for users and providers are likely to be limited. PMID:26927588

  4. Decision-theoretic analysis of forensic sampling criteria using bayesian decision networks.

    PubMed

    Biedermann, A; Bozza, S; Garbolino, P; Taroni, F

    2012-11-30

    Sampling issues represent a topic of ongoing interest to the forensic science community essentially because of their crucial role in laboratory planning and working protocols. For this purpose, forensic literature described thorough (bayesian) probabilistic sampling approaches. These are now widely implemented in practice. They allow, for instance, to obtain probability statements that parameters of interest (e.g., the proportion of a seizure of items that present particular features, such as an illegal substance) satisfy particular criteria (e.g., a threshold or an otherwise limiting value). Currently, there are many approaches that allow one to derive probability statements relating to a population proportion, but questions on how a forensic decision maker--typically a client of a forensic examination or a scientist acting on behalf of a client--ought actually to decide about a proportion or a sample size, remained largely unexplored to date. The research presented here intends to address methodology from decision theory that may help to cope usefully with the wide range of sampling issues typically encountered in forensic science applications. The procedures explored in this paper enable scientists to address a variety of concepts such as the (net) value of sample information, the (expected) value of sample information or the (expected) decision loss. All of these aspects directly relate to questions that are regularly encountered in casework. Besides probability theory and bayesian inference, the proposed approach requires some additional elements from decision theory that may increase the efforts needed for practical implementation. In view of this challenge, the present paper will emphasise the merits of graphical modelling concepts, such as decision trees and bayesian decision networks. These can support forensic scientists in applying the methodology in practice. How this may be achieved is illustrated with several examples. The graphical devices invoked

  5. A decision-analytic approach to the optimal allocation of resources for endangered species consultation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Converse, Sarah J.; Shelley, Kevin J.; Morey, Steve; Chan, Jeffrey; LaTier, Andrea; Scafidi, Carolyn; Crouse, Deborah T.; Runge, Michael C.

    2011-01-01

    The resources available to support conservation work, whether time or money, are limited. Decision makers need methods to help them identify the optimal allocation of limited resources to meet conservation goals, and decision analysis is uniquely suited to assist with the development of such methods. In recent years, a number of case studies have been described that examine optimal conservation decisions under fiscal constraints; here we develop methods to look at other types of constraints, including limited staff and regulatory deadlines. In the US, Section Seven consultation, an important component of protection under the federal Endangered Species Act, requires that federal agencies overseeing projects consult with federal biologists to avoid jeopardizing species. A benefit of consultation is negotiation of project modifications that lessen impacts on species, so staff time allocated to consultation supports conservation. However, some offices have experienced declining staff, potentially reducing the efficacy of consultation. This is true of the US Fish and Wildlife Service's Washington Fish and Wildlife Office (WFWO) and its consultation work on federally-threatened bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). To improve effectiveness, WFWO managers needed a tool to help allocate this work to maximize conservation benefits. We used a decision-analytic approach to score projects based on the value of staff time investment, and then identified an optimal decision rule for how scored projects would be allocated across bins, where projects in different bins received different time investments. We found that, given current staff, the optimal decision rule placed 80% of informal consultations (those where expected effects are beneficial, insignificant, or discountable) in a short bin where they would be completed without negotiating changes. The remaining 20% would be placed in a long bin, warranting an investment of seven days, including time for negotiation. For formal

  6. Depression: a decision-theoretic analysis.

    PubMed

    Huys, Quentin J M; Daw, Nathaniel D; Dayan, Peter

    2015-07-01

    The manifold symptoms of depression are common and often transient features of healthy life that are likely to be adaptive in difficult circumstances. It is when these symptoms enter a seemingly self-propelling spiral that the maladaptive features of a disorder emerge. We examine this malignant transformation from the perspective of the computational neuroscience of decision making, investigating how dysfunction of the brain's mechanisms of evaluation might lie at its heart. We start by considering the behavioral implications of pessimistic evaluations of decision variables. We then provide a selective review of work suggesting how such pessimism might arise via specific failures of the mechanisms of evaluation or state estimation. Finally, we analyze ways that miscalibration between the subject and environment may be self-perpetuating. We employ the formal framework of Bayesian decision theory as a foundation for this study, showing how most of the problems arise from one of its broad algorithmic facets, namely model-based reasoning. PMID:25705929

  7. Depression: a decision-theoretic analysis.

    PubMed

    Huys, Quentin J M; Daw, Nathaniel D; Dayan, Peter

    2015-07-01

    The manifold symptoms of depression are common and often transient features of healthy life that are likely to be adaptive in difficult circumstances. It is when these symptoms enter a seemingly self-propelling spiral that the maladaptive features of a disorder emerge. We examine this malignant transformation from the perspective of the computational neuroscience of decision making, investigating how dysfunction of the brain's mechanisms of evaluation might lie at its heart. We start by considering the behavioral implications of pessimistic evaluations of decision variables. We then provide a selective review of work suggesting how such pessimism might arise via specific failures of the mechanisms of evaluation or state estimation. Finally, we analyze ways that miscalibration between the subject and environment may be self-perpetuating. We employ the formal framework of Bayesian decision theory as a foundation for this study, showing how most of the problems arise from one of its broad algorithmic facets, namely model-based reasoning.

  8. Probabilistic seasonal Forecasts to deterministic Farm Leve Decisions: Innovative Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mwangi, M. W.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change and vulnerability are major challenges in ensuring household food security. Climate information services have the potential to cushion rural households from extreme climate risks. However, most the probabilistic nature of climate information products is not easily understood by majority of smallholder farmers. Despite the probabilistic nature, climate information have proved to be a valuable climate risk adaptation strategy at the farm level. This calls for innovative ways to help farmers understand and apply climate information services to inform their farm level decisions. The study endeavored to co-design and test appropriate innovation systems for climate information services uptake and scale up necessary for achieving climate risk development. In addition it also determined the conditions necessary to support the effective performance of the proposed innovation system. Data and information sources included systematic literature review, secondary sources, government statistics, focused group discussions, household surveys and semi-structured interviews. Data wasanalyzed using both quantitative and qualitative data analysis techniques. Quantitative data was analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software. Qualitative data was analyzed using qualitative techniques, which involved establishing the categories and themes, relationships/patterns and conclusions in line with the study objectives. Sustainable livelihood, reduced household poverty and climate change resilience were the impact that resulted from the study.

  9. Resilience thinking and a decision-analytic approach to conservation: strange bedfellows or essential partners?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Fred A.; Williams, Byron K.; Nichols, James D.

    2013-01-01

    There has been some tendency to view decision science and resilience theory as opposing approaches, or at least as contending perspectives, for natural resource management. Resilience proponents have been especially critical of optimization in decision science, at least for those cases where it is focused on the aggressive pursuit of efficiency. In general, optimization of resource systems is held to reduce spatial, temporal, or organizational heterogeneity that would otherwise limit efficiency, leading to homogenization of a system and making it less able to cope with unexpected changes or disturbances. For their part, decision analysts have been critical of resilience proponents for not providing much practical advice to decision makers. We believe a key source of tension between resilience thinking and application of decision science is the pursuit of efficiency in the latter (i.e., choosing the “best” management action or strategy option to maximize productivity of one or few resource components), vs. a desire in the former to keep options open (i.e., maintaining and enhancing diversity). It seems obvious, however, that with managed natural systems, there must be a principle by which to guide decision making, which at a minimumallows for a comparison of projected outcomes associated with decision alternatives. This is true even if the primary concern of decision making is the preservation of system resilience. We describe how a careful framing of conservation problems, especially in terms of management objectives and predictive models, can help reduce the purported tension between resiliencethinking and decision analysis. In particular, objective setting in conservation problems needs to be more attuned to the dynamics of ecological systems and to the possibility of deep uncertainties that underlie the risk of unintended, if not irreversible, outcomes. Resilience thinking also leads to the suggestion that model development should focus more on process

  10. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making--An Introduction: Report 1 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

    PubMed

    Thokala, Praveen; Devlin, Nancy; Marsh, Kevin; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kalo, Zoltan; Longrenn, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; Ijzerman, Maarten

    2016-01-01

    Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting, objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making and a set of techniques, known under the collective heading multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), are useful for this purpose. MCDA methods are widely used in other sectors, and recently there has been an increase in health care applications. In 2014, ISPOR established an MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force. It was charged with establishing a common definition for MCDA in health care decision making and developing good practice guidelines for conducting MCDA to aid health care decision making. This initial ISPOR MCDA task force report provides an introduction to MCDA - it defines MCDA; provides examples of its use in different kinds of decision making in health care (including benefit risk analysis, health technology assessment, resource allocation, portfolio decision analysis, shared patient clinician decision making and prioritizing patients' access to services); provides an overview of the principal methods of MCDA; and describes the key steps involved. Upon reviewing this report, readers should have a solid overview of MCDA methods and their potential for supporting health care decision making. PMID:26797229

  11. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making--An Introduction: Report 1 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

    PubMed

    Thokala, Praveen; Devlin, Nancy; Marsh, Kevin; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kalo, Zoltan; Longrenn, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; Ijzerman, Maarten

    2016-01-01

    Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting, objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making and a set of techniques, known under the collective heading multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), are useful for this purpose. MCDA methods are widely used in other sectors, and recently there has been an increase in health care applications. In 2014, ISPOR established an MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force. It was charged with establishing a common definition for MCDA in health care decision making and developing good practice guidelines for conducting MCDA to aid health care decision making. This initial ISPOR MCDA task force report provides an introduction to MCDA - it defines MCDA; provides examples of its use in different kinds of decision making in health care (including benefit risk analysis, health technology assessment, resource allocation, portfolio decision analysis, shared patient clinician decision making and prioritizing patients' access to services); provides an overview of the principal methods of MCDA; and describes the key steps involved. Upon reviewing this report, readers should have a solid overview of MCDA methods and their potential for supporting health care decision making.

  12. Identifying Risk and Protective Factors in Recidivist Juvenile Offenders: A Decision Tree Approach

    PubMed Central

    Ortega-Campos, Elena; García-García, Juan; Gil-Fenoy, Maria José; Zaldívar-Basurto, Flor

    2016-01-01

    Research on juvenile justice aims to identify profiles of risk and protective factors in juvenile offenders. This paper presents a study of profiles of risk factors that influence young offenders toward committing sanctionable antisocial behavior (S-ASB). Decision tree analysis is used as a multivariate approach to the phenomenon of repeated sanctionable antisocial behavior in juvenile offenders in Spain. The study sample was made up of the set of juveniles who were charged in a court case in the Juvenile Court of Almeria (Spain). The period of study of recidivism was two years from the baseline. The object of study is presented, through the implementation of a decision tree. Two profiles of risk and protective factors are found. Risk factors associated with higher rates of recidivism are antisocial peers, age at baseline S-ASB, problems in school and criminality in family members. PMID:27611313

  13. Identifying Risk and Protective Factors in Recidivist Juvenile Offenders: A Decision Tree Approach.

    PubMed

    Ortega-Campos, Elena; García-García, Juan; Gil-Fenoy, Maria José; Zaldívar-Basurto, Flor

    2016-01-01

    Research on juvenile justice aims to identify profiles of risk and protective factors in juvenile offenders. This paper presents a study of profiles of risk factors that influence young offenders toward committing sanctionable antisocial behavior (S-ASB). Decision tree analysis is used as a multivariate approach to the phenomenon of repeated sanctionable antisocial behavior in juvenile offenders in Spain. The study sample was made up of the set of juveniles who were charged in a court case in the Juvenile Court of Almeria (Spain). The period of study of recidivism was two years from the baseline. The object of study is presented, through the implementation of a decision tree. Two profiles of risk and protective factors are found. Risk factors associated with higher rates of recidivism are antisocial peers, age at baseline S-ASB, problems in school and criminality in family members. PMID:27611313

  14. Impact of proximity-adjusted preferences on rank-order stability in geographical multicriteria decision analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ligmann-Zielinska, Arika; Jankowski, Piotr

    2012-04-01

    This paper presents a new approach to deriving preferences assigned to evaluation criteria in geographical multicriteria decision analysis. In this approach, the preferences, expressed by numeric weights, are adjusted by distance measures derived from the explicit consideration of a locational structure. The structure is given by locations of decision options and high importance reference objects. The approach is demonstrated on the example of a house selection case study in San Diego, California. The results show that proximity-adjusted preferences for the evaluation criteria can alter significantly the rank order of decision options. Consequently, the explicit modeling of spatial preference variability may be needed in order to better account for decision-maker's preferences.

  15. Using Cluster Analysis to Examine Husband-Wife Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonds-Raacke, Jennifer M.

    2006-01-01

    Cluster analysis has a rich history in many disciplines and although cluster analysis has been used in clinical psychology to identify types of disorders, its use in other areas of psychology has been less popular. The purpose of the current experiments was to use cluster analysis to investigate husband-wife decision making. Cluster analysis was…

  16. Decision Analysis of Dynamic Spectrum Access Rules

    SciTech Connect

    Juan D. Deaton; Luiz A. DaSilva; Christian Wernz

    2011-12-01

    A current trend in spectrum regulation is to incorporate spectrum sharing through the design of spectrum access rules that support Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA). This paper develops a decision-theoretic framework for regulators to assess the impacts of different decision rules on both primary and secondary operators. We analyze access rules based on sensing and exclusion areas, which in practice can be enforced through geolocation databases. Our results show that receiver-only sensing provides insufficient protection for primary and co-existing secondary users and overall low social welfare. On the other hand, using sensing information between the transmitter and receiver of a communication link, provides dramatic increases in system performance. The performance of using these link end points is relatively close to that of using many cooperative sensing nodes associated to the same access point and large link exclusion areas. These results are useful to regulators and network developers in understanding in developing rules for future DSA regulation.

  17. Vascular access choice in incident hemodialysis patients: a decision analysis.

    PubMed

    Drew, David A; Lok, Charmaine E; Cohen, Joshua T; Wagner, Martin; Tangri, Navdeep; Weiner, Daniel E

    2015-01-01

    Hemodialysis vascular access recommendations promote arteriovenous (AV) fistulas first; however, it may not be the best approach for all hemodialysis patients, because likelihood of successful fistula placement, procedure-related and subsequent costs, and patient survival modify the optimal access choice. We performed a decision analysis evaluating AV fistula, AV graft, and central venous catheter (CVC) strategies for patients initiating hemodialysis with a CVC, a scenario occurring in over 70% of United States dialysis patients. A decision tree model was constructed to reflect progression from hemodialysis initiation. Patients were classified into one of three vascular access choices: maintain CVC, attempt fistula, or attempt graft. We explicitly modeled probabilities of primary and secondary patency for each access type, with success modified by age, sex, and diabetes. Access-specific mortality was incorporated using preexisting cohort data, including terms for age, sex, and diabetes. Costs were ascertained from the 2010 USRDS report and Medicare for procedure costs. An AV fistula attempt strategy was found to be superior to AV grafts and CVCs in regard to mortality and cost for the majority of patient characteristic combinations, especially younger men without diabetes. Women with diabetes and elderly men with diabetes had similar outcomes, regardless of access type. Overall, the advantages of an AV fistula attempt strategy lessened considerably among older patients, particularly women with diabetes, reflecting the effect of lower AV fistula success rates and lower life expectancy. These results suggest that vascular access-related outcomes may be optimized by considering individual patient characteristics.

  18. Forecasting for energy and chemical decision analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Cazalet, E.G.

    1984-08-01

    This paper focuses on uncertainty and bias in forecasts used for major energy and chemical investment decisions. Probability methods for characterizing uncertainty in the forecast are reviewed. Sources of forecasting bias are classified based on the results of relevant psychology research. Examples are drawn from the energy and chemical industry to illustrate the value of explicit characterization of uncertainty and reduction of bias in forecasts.

  19. Approach to uncertainty in risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Rish, W.R.

    1988-08-01

    In the Fall of 1985 EPA's Office of Radiation Programs (ORP) initiated a project to develop a formal approach to dealing with uncertainties encountered when estimating and evaluating risks to human health and the environment. Based on a literature review of modeling uncertainty, interviews with ORP technical and management staff, and input from experts on uncertainty analysis, a comprehensive approach was developed. This approach recognizes by design the constraints on budget, time, manpower, expertise, and availability of information often encountered in ''real world'' modeling. It is based on the observation that in practice risk modeling is usually done to support a decision process. As such, the approach focuses on how to frame a given risk modeling problem, how to use that framing to select an appropriate mixture of uncertainty analyses techniques, and how to integrate the techniques into an uncertainty assessment that effectively communicates important information and insight to decision-makers. The approach is presented in this report. Practical guidance on characterizing and analyzing uncertainties about model form and quantities and on effectively communicating uncertainty analysis results is included. Examples from actual applications are presented.

  20. A novel anomaly detection approach based on clustering and decision-level fusion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhong, Shengwei; Zhang, Ye

    2015-09-01

    In hyperspectral image processing, anomaly detection is a valuable way of searching targets whose spectral characteristics are not known, and the estimation of background signals is the key procedure. On account of the high dimensionality and complexity of hyperspectral image, dimensionality reduction and background suppression is necessary. In addition, the complementarity of different anomaly detection algorithms can be utilized to improve the effectiveness of anomaly detection. In this paper, we propose a novel method of anomaly detection, which is based on clustering of optimized K-means and decision-level fusion. In our proposed method, pixels with similar features are firstly clustered using an optimized k-means method. Secondly, dimensionality reduction is conducted using principle component analysis to reduce the amount of calculation. Then, to increase the accuracy of detection and decrease the false-alarm ratio, both Reed-Xiaoli (RX) and Kernel RX algorithm are used on processed image. Lastly, a decision-level fusion is processed on the detection results. A simulated hyperspectral image and a real hyperspectral one are both used to evaluate the performance of our proposed method. Visual analysis and quantative analysis of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves show that our algorithm can achieve better performance when compared with other classic approaches and state-of-the-art approaches.

  1. SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND DECISION ASSISTANCE (SADA) TRAINING COURSE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

  2. Thinking styles and decision making: A meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    Phillips, Wendy J; Fletcher, Jennifer M; Marks, Anthony D G; Hine, Donald W

    2016-03-01

    This meta-analysis examined whether tendencies to use reflective and intuitive thinking styles predicted decision performance (normatively correct responding) and decision experience (e.g., speed, enjoyment) on a range of decision-making tasks. A pooled sample of 17,704 participants (Mage = 25 years) from 89 samples produced small but significant weighted average effects for reflection on performance (r = .11) and experience (r = .14). Intuition was negatively associated with performance (r = -.09) but positively associated with experience (r = .06). Moderation analyses using 499 effect sizes revealed heterogeneity across task-theory match/mismatch, task type, description-based versus experience-based decisions, time pressure, age, and measure type. Effects of both thinking styles were strongest when the task matched the theoretical strengths of the thinking style (up to r = .29). Specific tasks that produced the largest thinking style effects (up to r = .35) were also consistent with system characteristics. Time pressure weakened the effects of reflection, but not intuition, on performance. Effect sizes for reflection on performance were largest for individuals aged either 12 to 18 years or 25+ (up to r = .18), and the effects of both reflection and intuition on experience were largest for adults aged 25+ (up to r = .27). Overall, our results indicate that associations between thinking styles and decision outcomes are context dependent. To improve decision performance and experience, decision architects and educators should carefully consider both individual differences in the decision maker and the nature of the decision task.

  3. [Decision-making process and health management councils: theoretical approaches].

    PubMed

    Wendhausen, Agueda; Cardoso, Sandra de Mello

    2007-01-01

    With the institutionalization of participation in health, through conferences and management councils at national, state, municipal and local levels, a process of democratization is initiated in the health area. However, in relation to the health councils in particular, there is still much to be done, including improving the quality of the decision-making process. This work aims to place the decision-making process in its theoretical context in terms of participatory democracy, elements which make up, factors which influence its development, and finally, to explore some possibilities of this theoretical basis to analyze the practices of the health councils in the area of health. It is hoped that it will make a theoretical contribution to the analyses carried out in this area, in order to provide a decision-making process that is more inclusive in terms of participation.

  4. Hospital management decision support: a balanced scorecard approach.

    PubMed

    Gordon, D; Chapman, R; Kunov, H; Dolan, A; Carter, M

    1998-01-01

    Hospital management teams receive voluminous data from a wide variety of sources, but are unable to distill the essential data they require to make good decisions. We have used a methodology, which helps teams define and use important management data coupled with an information system that makes this data accessible. Results of our evaluation indicate that the process of developing a Balanced Scorecard indicator system helps management teams to define meaningful strategic objectives and measurable performance indicators. The framework combined with the information acts as an integrating force, providing a shared understanding of the unit's goals. We conclude that a customized decision support system, which integrates multiple measures in a balanced Scorecard framework, is a powerful tool for enabling complex decision making by a management team. PMID:10384497

  5. The application of decision analysis to life support research and technology development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ballin, Mark G.

    1994-01-01

    Applied research and technology development is often characterized by uncertainty, risk, and significant delays before tangible returns are obtained. Decision making regarding which technologies to advance and what resources to devote to them is a challenging but essential task. In the application of life support technology to future manned space flight, new technology concepts typically are characterized by nonexistent data and rough approximations of technology performance, uncertain future flight program needs, and a complex, time-intensive process to develop technology to a flight-ready status. Decision analysis is a quantitative, logic-based discipline that imposes formalism and structure to complex problems. It also accounts for the limits of knowledge that may be available at the time a decision is needed. The utility of decision analysis to life support technology R & D was evaluated by applying it to two case studies. The methodology was found to provide insight that is not possible from more traditional analysis approaches.

  6. Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in

  7. Understanding Decision Making in Teachers' Curriculum Design Approaches

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boschman, Ferry; McKenney, Susan; Voogt, Joke

    2014-01-01

    The goal of this study was to reach a better understanding of the intuitive decisions teachers make when designing a technology-rich learning environment. A multiple case-study design was employed to examine what kinds of factors (external priorities, existing orientations or practical concerns) influence design interactions of teams of…

  8. Multicriteria decision-making approach with hesitant interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets.

    PubMed

    Peng, Juan-juan; Wang, Jian-qiang; Wang, Jing; Chen, Xiao-hong

    2014-01-01

    The definition of hesitant interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (HIVIFSs) is developed based on interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IVIFSs) and hesitant fuzzy sets (HFSs). Then, some operations on HIVIFSs are introduced in detail, and their properties are further discussed. In addition, some hesitant interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy number aggregation operators based on t-conorms and t-norms are proposed, which can be used to aggregate decision-makers' information in multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) problems. Some valuable proposals of these operators are studied. In particular, based on algebraic and Einstein t-conorms and t-norms, some hesitant interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy algebraic aggregation operators and Einstein aggregation operators can be obtained, respectively. Furthermore, an approach of MCDM problems based on the proposed aggregation operators is given using hesitant interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy information. Finally, an illustrative example is provided to demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the developed approach, and the study is supported by a sensitivity analysis and a comparison analysis.

  9. Multicriteria Decision-Making Approach with Hesitant Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets

    PubMed Central

    Peng, Juan-juan; Wang, Jian-qiang; Wang, Jing; Chen, Xiao-hong

    2014-01-01

    The definition of hesitant interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (HIVIFSs) is developed based on interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IVIFSs) and hesitant fuzzy sets (HFSs). Then, some operations on HIVIFSs are introduced in detail, and their properties are further discussed. In addition, some hesitant interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy number aggregation operators based on t-conorms and t-norms are proposed, which can be used to aggregate decision-makers' information in multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) problems. Some valuable proposals of these operators are studied. In particular, based on algebraic and Einstein t-conorms and t-norms, some hesitant interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy algebraic aggregation operators and Einstein aggregation operators can be obtained, respectively. Furthermore, an approach of MCDM problems based on the proposed aggregation operators is given using hesitant interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy information. Finally, an illustrative example is provided to demonstrate the applicability and effectiveness of the developed approach, and the study is supported by a sensitivity analysis and a comparison analysis. PMID:24983009

  10. Effect of Epistemic Uncertainty Modeling Approach on Decision-Making: Example using Equipment Performance Indicator

    SciTech Connect

    Dana Kelly; Robert Youngblood

    2012-06-01

    Quantitative risk assessments are an integral part of risk-informed regulation of current and future nuclear plants in the U.S. The Bayesian approach to uncertainty, in which both stochastic and epistemic uncertainties are represented with precise probability distributions, is the standard approach to modeling uncertainties in such quantitative risk assessments. However, there are long-standing criticisms of the Bayesian approach to epistemic uncertainty from many perspectives, and a number of alternative approaches have been proposed. Among these alternatives, the most promising (and most rapidly developing) would appear to be the concept of imprecise probability. In this paper, we employ a performance indicator example to focus the discussion. We first give a short overview of the traditional Bayesian paradigm and review some its controversial aspects, for example, issues with so-called noninformative prior distributions. We then discuss how the imprecise probability approach treats these issues and compare it with two other approaches: sensitivity analysis and hierarchical Bayes modeling. We conclude with some practical implications for risk-informed decision making.

  11. Treatment decision-making among Canadian youth with severe haemophilia: a qualitative approach.

    PubMed

    Lane, S J; Walker, I; Chan, A K; Heddle, N M; Poon, M-C; Minuk, L; Jardine, L; Arnold, E; Sholapur, N; Webert, K E

    2015-03-01

    The first generation of young men using primary prophylaxis is coming of age. Important questions regarding the management of severe haemophilia with prophylaxis persist: Can prophylaxis be stopped? At what age? To what effect? Can the regimen be individualized? The reasons why some individuals discontinue or poorly comply with prophylaxis are not well understood. These issues have been explored using predominantly quantitative research approaches, yielding little insight into treatment decision-making from the perspectives of persons with haemophilia (PWH). Positioning the PWH as a source of expertise about their condition and its management, we undertook a qualitative study: (i) to explore and understand the lived experience of young men with severe haemophilia A or B and (ii) to identify the factors and inter-relationships between factors that affect young men's treatment decision-making. This manuscript reports primarily on the second objective. A modified Straussian, grounded theory methodology was used for data collection (interviews) and preliminary analysis. The study sample, youth aged 15-29, with severe haemophilia A or B, was chosen selectively and recruited through three Canadian Haemophilia Treatment Centres. We found treatment decision-making to be multi-factorial and used the Framework method to analyze the inter-relationships between factors. A typology of four distinct approaches to treatment was identified: lifestyle routine prophylaxis, situational prophylaxis, strict routine prophylaxis and no prophylaxis. Standardized treatment definitions (i.e.: 'primary' and 'secondary', 'prophylaxis') do not adequately describe the ways participants treat. Naming the variation of approaches documented in this study can improve PWH/provider communication, treatment planning and education.

  12. Development of policies for Natura 2000 sites: a multi-criteria approach to support decision makers.

    PubMed

    Cortina, Carla; Boggia, Antonio

    2014-08-01

    The aim of this study is to present a methodology to support decision makers in the choice of Natura 2000 sites needing an appropriate management plan to ensure a sustainable socio-economic development. In order to promote sustainable development in the Natura 2000 sites compatible with nature preservation, conservation measures or management plans are necessary. The main issue is to decide when only conservation measures can be applied and when the sites need an appropriate management plan. We present a case study for the Italian Region of Umbria. The methodology is based on a multi-criteria approach to identify the biodiversity index (BI), and on the development of a human activities index (HAI). By crossing the two indexes for each site on a Cartesian plane, four groups of sites were identified. Each group corresponds to a specific need for an appropriate management plan. Sites in the first group with a high level both of biodiversity and human activities have the most urgent need of an appropriate management plan to ensure sustainable development. The proposed methodology and analysis is replicable in other regions or countries by using the data available for each site in the Natura 2000 standard data form. A multi-criteria analysis is especially suitable for supporting decision makers when they deal with a multidimensional decision process. We found the multi-criteria approach particularly sound in this case, due to the concept of biodiversity itself, which is complex and multidimensional, and to the high number of alternatives (Natura 2000 sites) to be assessed.

  13. Embodied cognition of movement decisions: a computational modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Joseph G

    2009-01-01

    This chapter presents a cognitive computational view of decision making as the search for, and accumulation of, evidence for options under consideration. It is based on existing models that have been successful in traditional decision tasks involving preferential choice. The model assumes shifting attention over time that determines momentary inputs to an evolving preference state. In this chapter, the cognitive model is extended to illustrate how links from the motor system may be incorporated. These links can basically be categorized into one of three influences: modifying the subjective evaluation of choice options, restricting attention, and altering the options that are to be found in the choice set. The implications for the formal model are introduced and preliminary evidence is drawn from the extant literature.

  14. Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Ebadian, M.A.; Boudreaux, J.F.; Chinta, S.; Zanakis, S.H.

    1998-01-01

    The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites.

  15. An analysis of symbolic linguistic computing models in decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodríguez, Rosa M.; Martínez, Luis

    2013-01-01

    It is common that experts involved in complex real-world decision problems use natural language for expressing their knowledge in uncertain frameworks. The language is inherent vague, hence probabilistic decision models are not very suitable in such cases. Therefore, other tools such as fuzzy logic and fuzzy linguistic approaches have been successfully used to model and manage such vagueness. The use of linguistic information implies to operate with such a type of information, i.e. processes of computing with words (CWW). Different schemes have been proposed to deal with those processes, and diverse symbolic linguistic computing models have been introduced to accomplish the linguistic computations. In this paper, we overview the relationship between decision making and CWW, and focus on symbolic linguistic computing models that have been widely used in linguistic decision making to analyse if all of them can be considered inside of the CWW paradigm.

  16. What Satisfies Students?: Mining Student-Opinion Data with Regression and Decision Tree Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomas, Emily H.; Galambos, Nora

    2004-01-01

    To investigate how students' characteristics and experiences affect satisfaction, this study uses regression and decision tree analysis with the CHAID algorithm to analyze student-opinion data. A data mining approach identifies the specific aspects of students' university experience that most influence three measures of general satisfaction. The…

  17. An integrated modeling approach to support management decisions of coupled groundwater-agricultural systems under multiple uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hagos Subagadis, Yohannes; Schütze, Niels; Grundmann, Jens

    2015-04-01

    The planning and implementation of effective water resources management strategies need an assessment of multiple (physical, environmental, and socio-economic) issues, and often requires new research in which knowledge of diverse disciplines are combined in a unified methodological and operational frameworks. Such integrative research to link different knowledge domains faces several practical challenges. Such complexities are further compounded by multiple actors frequently with conflicting interests and multiple uncertainties about the consequences of potential management decisions. A fuzzy-stochastic multiple criteria decision analysis tool was developed in this study to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with complex hydrosystems management. It integrated physical process-based models, fuzzy logic, expert involvement and stochastic simulation within a general framework. Subsequently, the proposed new approach is applied to a water-scarce coastal arid region water management problem in northern Oman, where saltwater intrusion into a coastal aquifer due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture has affected the aquifer sustainability, endangering associated socio-economic conditions as well as traditional social structure. Results from the developed method have provided key decision alternatives which can serve as a platform for negotiation and further exploration. In addition, this approach has enabled to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with the decision problem. Sensitivity analysis applied within the developed tool has shown that the decision makers' risk aversion and risk taking attitude may yield in different ranking of decision alternatives. The developed approach can be applied to address the complexities and uncertainties inherent in water resources systems to support management decisions, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation.

  18. Using multi-criteria decision analysis to assess the vulnerability of drinking water utilities.

    PubMed

    Joerin, Florent; Cool, Geneviève; Rodriguez, Manuel J; Gignac, Marc; Bouchard, Christian

    2010-07-01

    Outbreaks of microbiological waterborne disease have increased governmental concern regarding the importance of drinking water safety. Considering the multi-barrier approach to safe drinking water may improve management decisions to reduce contamination risks. However, the application of this approach must consider numerous and diverse kinds of information simultaneously. This makes it difficult for authorities to apply the approach to decision making. For this reason, multi-criteria decision analysis can be helpful in applying the multi-barrier approach to vulnerability assessment. The goal of this study is to propose an approach based on a multi-criteria analysis method in order to rank drinking water systems (DWUs) based on their vulnerability to microbiological contamination. This approach is illustrated with an application carried out on 28 DWUs supplied by groundwater in the Province of Québec, Canada. The multi-criteria analysis method chosen is measuring attractiveness by a categorical based evaluation technique methodology allowing the assessment of a microbiological vulnerability indicator (MVI) for each DWU. Results are presented on a scale ranking DWUs from less vulnerable to most vulnerable to contamination. MVI results are tested using a sensitivity analysis on barrier weights and they are also compared with historical data on contamination at the utilities. The investigation demonstrates that MVI provides a good representation of the vulnerability of DWUs to microbiological contamination.

  19. The Role of Research and Analysis in Resource Allocation Decisions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lea, Dennis; Polster, Patty Poppe

    2011-01-01

    In a time of diminishing resources and increased accountability, it is important for school leaders to make the most of every dollar they spend. One approach to ensuring responsible resource allocation is to closely examine the organizational culture surrounding decision making and provide a structure and process to incorporate research and data…

  20. The analysis of the pilot's cognitive and decision processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curry, R. E.

    1975-01-01

    Articles are presented on pilot performance in zero-visibility precision approach, failure detection by pilots during automatic landing, experiments in pilot decision-making during simulated low visibility approaches, a multinomial maximum likelihood program, and a random search algorithm for laboratory computers. Other topics discussed include detection of system failures in multi-axis tasks and changes in pilot workload during an instrument landing.

  1. Making Good Decisions in Healthcare with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: The Use, Current Research and Future Development of MCDA.

    PubMed

    Mühlbacher, Axel C; Kaczynski, Anika

    2016-02-01

    Healthcare decision making is usually characterized by a low degree of transparency. The demand for transparent decision processes can be fulfilled only when assessment, appraisal and decisions about health technologies are performed under a systematic construct of benefit assessment. The benefit of an intervention is often multidimensional and, thus, must be represented by several decision criteria. Complex decision problems require an assessment and appraisal of various criteria; therefore, a decision process that systematically identifies the best available alternative and enables an optimal and transparent decision is needed. For that reason, decision criteria must be weighted and goal achievement must be scored for all alternatives. Methods of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are available to analyse and appraise multiple clinical endpoints and structure complex decision problems in healthcare decision making. By means of MCDA, value judgments, priorities and preferences of patients, insurees and experts can be integrated systematically and transparently into the decision-making process. This article describes the MCDA framework and identifies potential areas where MCDA can be of use (e.g. approval, guidelines and reimbursement/pricing of health technologies). A literature search was performed to identify current research in healthcare. The results showed that healthcare decision making is addressing the problem of multiple decision criteria and is focusing on the future development and use of techniques to weight and score different decision criteria. This article emphasizes the use and future benefit of MCDA.

  2. Review of various approaches for assessing public health risks in regulatory decision making: choosing the right approach for the problem.

    PubMed

    Dearfield, Kerry L; Hoelzer, Karin; Kause, Janell R

    2014-08-01

    Stakeholders in the public health risk analysis community can possess differing opinions about what is meant by "conduct a risk assessment." In reality, there is no one-size-fits-all risk assessment that can address all public health issues, problems, and regulatory needs. Although several international and national organizations (e.g., Codex Alimentarius Commission, Office International des Epizooties, Food and Agricultural Organization, World Health Organization, National Research Council, and European Food Safety Authority) have addressed this issue, confusion remains. The type and complexity of a risk assessment must reflect the risk management needs to appropriately inform a regulatory or nonregulatory decision, i.e., a risk assessment is ideally "fit for purpose" and directly applicable to risk management issues of concern. Frequently however, there is a lack of understanding by those not completely familiar with risk assessment regarding the specific utility of different approaches for assessing public health risks. This unfamiliarity can unduly hamper the acceptance of risk assessment results by risk managers and may reduce the usefulness of such results for guiding public health policies, practices, and operations. Differences in interpretation of risk assessment terminology further complicate effective communication among risk assessors, risk managers, and stakeholders. This article provides an overview of the types of risk assessments commonly conducted, with examples primarily from the food and agricultural sectors, and a discussion of the utility and limitations of these specific approaches for assessing public health risks. Clarification of the risk management issues and corresponding risk assessment design needs during the formative stages of the risk analysis process is a key step for ensuring that the most appropriate assessment of risk is developed and used to guide risk management decisions. PMID:25198609

  3. SIDEKICK: Genomic data driven analysis and decision-making framework

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Scientists striving to unlock mysteries within complex biological systems face myriad barriers in effectively integrating available information to enhance their understanding. While experimental techniques and available data sources are rapidly evolving, useful information is dispersed across a variety of sources, and sources of the same information often do not use the same format or nomenclature. To harness these expanding resources, scientists need tools that bridge nomenclature differences and allow them to integrate, organize, and evaluate the quality of information without extensive computation. Results Sidekick, a genomic data driven analysis and decision making framework, is a web-based tool that provides a user-friendly intuitive solution to the problem of information inaccessibility. Sidekick enables scientists without training in computation and data management to pursue answers to research questions like "What are the mechanisms for disease X" or "Does the set of genes associated with disease X also influence other diseases." Sidekick enables the process of combining heterogeneous data, finding and maintaining the most up-to-date data, evaluating data sources, quantifying confidence in results based on evidence, and managing the multi-step research tasks needed to answer these questions. We demonstrate Sidekick's effectiveness by showing how to accomplish a complex published analysis in a fraction of the original time with no computational effort using Sidekick. Conclusions Sidekick is an easy-to-use web-based tool that organizes and facilitates complex genomic research, allowing scientists to explore genomic relationships and formulate hypotheses without computational effort. Possible analysis steps include gene list discovery, gene-pair list discovery, various enrichments for both types of lists, and convenient list manipulation. Further, Sidekick's ability to characterize pairs of genes offers new ways to approach genomic analysis that

  4. Use of multicriteria decision analysis to address conservation conflicts.

    PubMed

    Davies, A L; Bryce, R; Redpath, S M

    2013-10-01

    Conservation conflicts are increasing on a global scale and instruments for reconciling competing interests are urgently needed. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a structured, decision-support process that can facilitate dialogue between groups with differing interests and incorporate human and environmental dimensions of conflict. MCDA is a structured and transparent method of breaking down complex problems and incorporating multiple objectives. The value of this process for addressing major challenges in conservation conflict management is that MCDA helps in setting realistic goals; entails a transparent decision-making process; and addresses mistrust, differing world views, cross-scale issues, patchy or contested information, and inflexible legislative tools. Overall we believe MCDA provides a valuable decision-support tool, particularly for increasing awareness of the effects of particular values and choices for working toward negotiated compromise, although an awareness of the effect of methodological choices and the limitations of the method is vital before applying it in conflict situations.

  5. Employing Conjoint Analysis in Making Compensation Decisions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kienast, Philip; And Others

    1983-01-01

    Describes a method employing conjoint analysis that generates utility/cost ratios for various elements of the compensation package. Its superiority to simple preference surveys is examined. Results of a study of the use of this method in fringe benefit planning in a large financial institution are reported. (Author/JAC)

  6. Do choosing wisely tools meet criteria for patient decision aids? A descriptive analysis of patient materials

    PubMed Central

    Légaré, France; Hébert, Jessica; Goh, Larissa; Lewis, Krystina B; Leiva Portocarrero, Maria Ester; Robitaille, Hubert; Stacey, Dawn

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Choosing Wisely is a remarkable physician-led campaign to reduce unnecessary or harmful health services. Some of the literature identifies Choosing Wisely as a shared decision-making approach. We evaluated the patient materials developed by Choosing Wisely Canada to determine whether they meet the criteria for shared decision-making tools known as patient decision aids. Design Descriptive analysis of all Choosing Wisely Canada patient materials. Data source In May 2015, we selected all Choosing Wisely Canada patient materials from its official website. Main outcomes and measures Four team members independently extracted characteristics of the English materials using the International Patient Decision Aid Standards (IPDAS) modified 16-item minimum criteria for qualifying and certifying patient decision aids. The research team discussed discrepancies between data extractors and reached a consensus. Descriptive analysis was conducted. Results Of the 24 patient materials assessed, 12 were about treatments, 11 were about screening and 1 was about prevention. The median score for patient materials using IPDAS criteria was 10/16 (range: 8–11) for screening topics and 6/12 (range: 6–9) for prevention and treatment topics. Commonly missed criteria were stating the decision (21/24 did not), providing balanced information on option benefits/harms (24/24 did not), citing evidence (24/24 did not) and updating policy (24/24 did not). Out of 24 patient materials, only 2 met the 6 IPDAS criteria to qualify as patient decision aids, and neither of these 2 met the 6 certifying criteria. Conclusions Patient materials developed by Choosing Wisely Canada do not meet the IPDAS minimal qualifying or certifying criteria for patient decision aids. Modifications to the Choosing Wisely Canada patient materials would help to ensure that they qualify as patient decision aids and thus as more effective shared decision-making tools. PMID:27566638

  7. A Novel Approach on Designing Augmented Fuzzy Cognitive Maps Using Fuzzified Decision Trees

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papageorgiou, Elpiniki I.

    This paper proposes a new methodology for designing Fuzzy Cognitive Maps using crisp decision trees that have been fuzzified. Fuzzy cognitive map is a knowledge-based technique that works as an artificial cognitive network inheriting the main aspects of cognitive maps and artificial neural networks. Decision trees, in the other hand, are well known intelligent techniques that extract rules from both symbolic and numeric data. Fuzzy theoretical techniques are used to fuzzify crisp decision trees in order to soften decision boundaries at decision nodes inherent in this type of trees. Comparisons between crisp decision trees and the fuzzified decision trees suggest that the later fuzzy tree is significantly more robust and produces a more balanced decision making. The approach proposed in this paper could incorporate any type of fuzzy decision trees. Through this methodology, new linguistic weights were determined in FCM model, thus producing augmented FCM tool. The framework is consisted of a new fuzzy algorithm to generate linguistic weights that describe the cause-effect relationships among the concepts of the FCM model, from induced fuzzy decision trees.

  8. Dichlorvos and carcinogenicity: a systematic approach to a regulatory decision.

    PubMed

    Van Maele-Fabry, G; Laurent, C; Willems, J L

    2000-02-01

    On the request of the Belgian Health Council, the authors performed a systematic review of the available evidence in the literature and in expert panel reports, with regard to a possible carcinogenic effect of dichlorvos. Following the evaluation procedure developed by IARC, they first concluded that dichlorvos should be classified as a possible carcinogen for man. This preliminary conclusion, and its possible consequences of withdrawal of several product authorizations, was then communicated by the Health Council to all stakeholders. As a result, the interpretation of the animal experimental data was confronted with the conclusions of a U.S. "Blue Ribbon Panel" of independent experts, who reviewed all the data that were available to them. After an exchange of views, the Health Council downgraded its classification of dichlorvos toward nonclassifiable with regard to cancer in man. This paper describes the review and decision-making processes, focusing on the major arguments underlying the original interpretation of the animal data and its eventual modification.

  9. Two-stage decision approach to material accounting

    SciTech Connect

    Opelka, J.H.; Sutton, W.B.

    1982-01-01

    The validity of the alarm threshold 4sigma has been checked for hypothetical large and small facilities using a two-stage decision model in which the diverter's strategic variable is the quantity diverted, and the defender's strategic variables are the alarm threshold and the effectiveness of the physical security and material control systems in the possible presence of a diverter. For large facilities, the material accounting system inherently appears not to be a particularly useful system for the deterrence of diversions, and essentially no improvement can be made by lowering the alarm threshold below 4sigma. For small facilities, reduction of the threshold to 2sigma or 3sigma is a cost effective change for the accounting system, but is probably less cost effective than making improvements in the material control and physical security systems.

  10. A Simulation Approach to Decision Making in IT Service Strategy

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    We propose to use simulation modeling to support decision making in IT service strategy scope. Our main contribution is a simulation model that helps service providers analyze the consequences of changes in both the service capacity assigned to their customers and the tendency of service requests received on the fulfillment of a business rule associated with the strategic goal of customer satisfaction. This business rule is set in the SLAs that service provider and its customers agree to, which determine the maximum percentage of service requests that are permitted to be abandoned because they have exceeded the waiting time allowed. To illustrate the use and applications of the model, we include some of the experiments conducted and describe our conclusions. PMID:24790583

  11. Initial Risk Analysis and Decision Making Framework

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.

    2012-02-01

    Commercialization of new carbon capture simulation initiative (CCSI) technology will include two key elements of risk management, namely, technical risk (will process and plant performance be effective, safe, and reliable) and enterprise risk (can project losses and costs be controlled within the constraints of market demand to maintain profitability and investor confidence). Both of these elements of risk are incorporated into the risk analysis subtask of Task 7. Thus far, this subtask has developed a prototype demonstration tool that quantifies risk based on the expected profitability of expenditures when retrofitting carbon capture technology on a stylized 650 MW pulverized coal electric power generator. The prototype is based on the selection of specific technical and financial factors believed to be important determinants of the expected profitability of carbon capture, subject to uncertainty. The uncertainty surrounding the technical performance and financial variables selected thus far is propagated in a model that calculates the expected profitability of investments in carbon capture and measures risk in terms of variability in expected net returns from these investments. Given the preliminary nature of the results of this prototype, additional work is required to expand the scope of the model to include additional risk factors, additional information on extant and proposed risk factors, the results of a qualitative risk factor elicitation process, and feedback from utilities and other interested parties involved in the carbon capture project. Additional information on proposed distributions of these risk factors will be integrated into a commercial implementation framework for the purpose of a comparative technology investment analysis.

  12. Learning from examples - Generation and evaluation of decision trees for software resource analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Selby, Richard W.; Porter, Adam A.

    1988-01-01

    A general solution method for the automatic generation of decision (or classification) trees is investigated. The approach is to provide insights through in-depth empirical characterization and evaluation of decision trees for software resource data analysis. The trees identify classes of objects (software modules) that had high development effort. Sixteen software systems ranging from 3,000 to 112,000 source lines were selected for analysis from a NASA production environment. The collection and analysis of 74 attributes (or metrics), for over 4,700 objects, captured information about the development effort, faults, changes, design style, and implementation style. A total of 9,600 decision trees were automatically generated and evaluated. The trees correctly identified 79.3 percent of the software modules that had high development effort or faults, and the trees generated from the best parameter combinations correctly identified 88.4 percent of the modules on the average.

  13. Selection of Representative Models for Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meira, Luis A. A.; Coelho, Guilherme P.; Santos, Antonio Alberto S.; Schiozer, Denis J.

    2016-03-01

    The decision-making process in oil fields includes a step of risk analysis associated with the uncertainties present in the variables of the problem. Such uncertainties lead to hundreds, even thousands, of possible scenarios that are supposed to be analyzed so an effective production strategy can be selected. Given this high number of scenarios, a technique to reduce this set to a smaller, feasible subset of representative scenarios is imperative. The selected scenarios must be representative of the original set and also free of optimistic and pessimistic bias. This paper is devoted to propose an assisted methodology to identify representative models in oil fields. To do so, first a mathematical function was developed to model the representativeness of a subset of models with respect to the full set that characterizes the problem. Then, an optimization tool was implemented to identify the representative models of any problem, considering not only the cross-plots of the main output variables, but also the risk curves and the probability distribution of the attribute-levels of the problem. The proposed technique was applied to two benchmark cases and the results, evaluated by experts in the field, indicate that the obtained solutions are richer than those identified by previously adopted manual approaches. The program bytecode is available under request.

  14. Comparing Drools and ontology reasoning approaches for telecardiology decision support.

    PubMed

    Van Hille, Pascal; Jacques, Julie; Taillard, Julien; Rosier, Arnaud; Delerue, David; Burgun, Anita; Dameron, Olivier

    2012-01-01

    Implantable cardioverter defibrillators can generate numerous alerts. Automatically classifying these alerts according to their severity hinges on the CHA2DS2VASc score. It requires some reasoning capabilities for interpreting the patient's data. We compared two approaches for implementing the reasoning module. One is based on the Drools engine, and the other is based on semantic web formalisms. Both were valid approaches with correct performances. For a broader domain, their limitations are the number and complexity of Drools rules and the performances of ontology-based reasoning, which suggests using the ontology for automatically generating a part of the Drools rules.

  15. Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilroy, Kristin; Mens, Marjolein; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Jeuken, Ad

    2016-04-01

    More frequent and intense hydrologic events under climate change are expected to enhance water security and flood risk management challenges worldwide. Traditional planning approaches must be adapted to address climate change and develop solutions with an appropriate level of robustness and flexibility. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) method is a novel planning approach embodying a suite of complementary methods, including decision scaling and adaptation pathways. Decision scaling offers a bottom-up approach to assess risk and tailors the complexity of the analysis to the problem at hand and the available capacity. Through adaptation pathway,s an array of future strategies towards climate robustness are developed, ranging in flexibility and immediacy of investments. Flexible pathways include transfer points to other strategies to ensure that the system can be adapted if future conditions vary from those expected. CRIDA combines these two approaches in a stakeholder driven process which guides decision makers through the planning and decision process, taking into account how the confidence in the available science, the consequences in the system, and the capacity of institutions should influence strategy selection. In this presentation, we will explain the CRIDA method and compare it to existing planning processes, such as the US Army Corps of Engineers Principles and Guidelines as well as Integrated Water Resources Management Planning. Then, we will apply the approach to a hypothetical case study for the Waas Region, a large downstream river basin facing rapid development threatened by increased flood risks. Through the case study, we will demonstrate how a stakeholder driven process can be used to evaluate system robustness to climate change; develop adaptation pathways for multiple objectives and criteria; and illustrate how varying levels of confidence, consequences, and capacity would play a role in the decision making process, specifically

  16. Application of multicriteria decision analysis in health care: a systematic review and bibliometric analysis

    PubMed Central

    Adunlin, Georges; Diaby, Vakaramoko; Xiao, Hong

    2015-01-01

    Background The use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) in health care has become common. However, the literature lacks systematic review trend analysis on the application of MCDA in health care. Aim To systematically identify applications of MCDA to the areas of health care, and to report on publication trends. Methods English language studies published from January 1, 1980 until October 1, 2013 were included. Electronic databases searches were supplemented by searching conference proceedings and relevant journals. Studies considered for inclusion were those using MCDA techniques within the areas of health care, and involving the participation of decision makers. A bibliometric analysis was undertaken to present the publication trends. Results A total of 66 citations met the inclusion criteria. An increase in publication trend occurred in the years 1990, 1997, 1999, 2005, 2008, and 2012. For the remaining years, the publication trend was either steady or declining. The trend shows that the number of publications reached its highest peak in 2012 (n = 9). Medical Decision Making was the dominant with the highest number published papers (n = 7). The majority of the studies were conducted in the US (n = 29). Medical Decision Making journal published the highest number of articles (n = 7). Analytic Hierarchy Process (n = 33) was the most used MCDA technique. Cancer was the most researched disease topic (n = 12). The most covered area of application was diagnosis and treatment (n = 26). Conclusion The review shows that MCDA has been applied to a broad range of areas in the health care, with the use of a variety of methodological approaches. Further research is needed to develop practice guidelines for the appropriate application and reporting of MCDA methods. PMID:25327341

  17. A Simplified Decision Support Approach for Evaluating Wetlands Ecosystem Services

    EPA Science Inventory

    State-level managers and restoration advocates have expressed a desire for approaches that address wetlands services and benefits for two purposes: to demonstrate the benefits of money budgeted for restoration, and to compare proposals when awarding restoration funds for specific...

  18. Embracing Excellence: A Positive Approach to Ethical Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hinz, Lisa D.

    2011-01-01

    Ethics courses may provoke fear and uncertainty in art therapy students and practitioners if taught from a risk management perspective, which focuses on reducing therapist exposure to risk and avoiding harm to clients. In contrast, a positive ethical approach fosters empowerment, embraces limits, and enhances trust between art therapists and their…

  19. Decision analysis in the clinical neurosciences: a systematic review of the literature.

    PubMed

    Dippel, D W; Habbema, J D

    1995-12-01

    Clinical decision analysis can be a useful scientific tool for individual patient management, for planning of clinical research and for reaching consensus about clinical problems. We systematically reviewed the decision analytic studies in the clinical neurosciences that were published between 1975 and July 1994. All studies were assessed on aspects of clinical applicability: presence of case and context description, completeness of the analysed strategies from a clinical point of view, extendibility of the analyses to different patient profiles, and up-to-date-ness. Fifty-nine decision analyses of twenty-eight different clinical problems were identified. Twenty-eight analyses were based on the theory of subjective expected utility, twelve on cost-effectiveness analysis. Four studies used ROC analysis, and fifteen were risk-, or risk-benefit analyses. At least six studies could have been improved by more elaborately disclosing the context of the clinical problem that was addressed. In eleven studies, the effect of different, yet plausible assumptions was not explored, and in eighteen studies the reader was not informed how to extend the results of the analysis to patients with (slightly) different clinical characterisitics. All studies had, by nature, the potential to promote insight into the clinical problem and focus the discussion on clinically important aspects, and gave clinically useful advice. We conclude that clinical decision analysis, as an explicit, quantitative approach to uncertainty in decision making in the clinical neurosciences will fulfill a growing need in the near future. PMID:24283779

  20. A Decision Theoretic Approach to Evaluate Radiation Detection Algorithms

    SciTech Connect

    Nobles, Mallory A.; Sego, Landon H.; Cooley, Scott K.; Gosink, Luke J.; Anderson, Richard M.; Hays, Spencer E.; Tardiff, Mark F.

    2013-07-01

    There are a variety of sensor systems deployed at U.S. border crossings and ports of entry that scan for illicit nuclear material. In this work, we develop a framework for comparing the performance of detection algorithms that interpret the output of these scans and determine when secondary screening is needed. We optimize each algorithm to minimize its risk, or expected loss. We measure an algorithm’s risk by considering its performance over a sample, the probability distribution of threat sources, and the consequence of detection errors. While it is common to optimize algorithms by fixing one error rate and minimizing another, our framework allows one to simultaneously consider multiple types of detection errors. Our framework is flexible and easily adapted to many different assumptions regarding the probability of a vehicle containing illicit material, and the relative consequences of a false positive and false negative errors. Our methods can therefore inform decision makers of the algorithm family and parameter values which best reduce the threat from illicit nuclear material, given their understanding of the environment at any point in time. To illustrate the applicability of our methods, in this paper, we compare the risk from two families of detection algorithms and discuss the policy implications of our results.

  1. Reliability analysis framework for computer-assisted medical decision systems

    SciTech Connect

    Habas, Piotr A.; Zurada, Jacek M.; Elmaghraby, Adel S.; Tourassi, Georgia D.

    2007-02-15

    We present a technique that enhances computer-assisted decision (CAD) systems with the ability to assess the reliability of each individual decision they make. Reliability assessment is achieved by measuring the accuracy of a CAD system with known cases similar to the one in question. The proposed technique analyzes the feature space neighborhood of the query case to dynamically select an input-dependent set of known cases relevant to the query. This set is used to assess the local (query-specific) accuracy of the CAD system. The estimated local accuracy is utilized as a reliability measure of the CAD response to the query case. The underlying hypothesis of the study is that CAD decisions with higher reliability are more accurate. The above hypothesis was tested using a mammographic database of 1337 regions of interest (ROIs) with biopsy-proven ground truth (681 with masses, 656 with normal parenchyma). Three types of decision models, (i) a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), (ii) a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), and (iii) a support vector machine (SVM), were developed to detect masses based on eight morphological features automatically extracted from each ROI. The performance of all decision models was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The study showed that the proposed reliability measure is a strong predictor of the CAD system's case-specific accuracy. Specifically, the ROC area index for CAD predictions with high reliability was significantly better than for those with low reliability values. This result was consistent across all decision models investigated in the study. The proposed case-specific reliability analysis technique could be used to alert the CAD user when an opinion that is unlikely to be reliable is offered. The technique can be easily deployed in the clinical environment because it is applicable with a wide range of classifiers regardless of their structure and it requires neither additional

  2. Testing a structured decision approach: value-focused thinking for deliberative risk communication.

    PubMed

    Arvai, J L; Gregory, R; McDaniels, T L

    2001-12-01

    Public participation is now part of many decision making processes for managing environmental and technical risks. This article describes a test of a strategy to improve the quality of public input by combining themes from risk communication with the prescriptive decision process of value-focused thinking. It was hypothesized that participating in a structured, value-focused risk communication approach would lead people to make more thoughtful, better informed, and hence higher quality decisions by helping them to consider and discuss a wider array of decision-relevant issues and address key value trade-offs. It is also anticipated that utilizing a value-focused decision structure would make participants feel more comfortable with their decisions; more satisfied that their selected alternative reflected their key concerns; and, in the end, more satisfied with their decisions. To test these hypotheses, six groups comprised of 7 to 10 people participated in conventional "alternative-focused" risk communication workshops and eight groups participated in similar "value-focused" workshops. All workshops dealt with the management of risks to riverine salmon habitat from hydroelectric electricity generation. The results provided support for the hypotheses: the value-focused decision structure led to more thoughtful and better informed risk management decisions.

  3. Testing a structured decision approach: value-focused thinking for deliberative risk communication.

    PubMed

    Arvai, J L; Gregory, R; McDaniels, T L

    2001-12-01

    Public participation is now part of many decision making processes for managing environmental and technical risks. This article describes a test of a strategy to improve the quality of public input by combining themes from risk communication with the prescriptive decision process of value-focused thinking. It was hypothesized that participating in a structured, value-focused risk communication approach would lead people to make more thoughtful, better informed, and hence higher quality decisions by helping them to consider and discuss a wider array of decision-relevant issues and address key value trade-offs. It is also anticipated that utilizing a value-focused decision structure would make participants feel more comfortable with their decisions; more satisfied that their selected alternative reflected their key concerns; and, in the end, more satisfied with their decisions. To test these hypotheses, six groups comprised of 7 to 10 people participated in conventional "alternative-focused" risk communication workshops and eight groups participated in similar "value-focused" workshops. All workshops dealt with the management of risks to riverine salmon habitat from hydroelectric electricity generation. The results provided support for the hypotheses: the value-focused decision structure led to more thoughtful and better informed risk management decisions. PMID:11824682

  4. Philosophical Foundations for Curriculum Decision: A Reflective Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Belbase, Shashidhar

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses the author's curriculum experiences under different philosophical, epistemological and theoretical backdrops. The analysis of different perspectives bridges epistemological and philosophical/theoretical lenses to my understanding of curriculum and different curricular decisions. This praxeological experience as a student and…

  5. Child Custody Decisions: Content Analysis of a Judicial Survey.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Settle, Shirley A; Lowery, Carol R.

    1982-01-01

    Surveyed judges and trial commissioners (N=80) regarding child custody decisions in divorce. The content analysis described the responents' comments which clarified their reasons for attaching greater or lesser importance to a particular consideration or the method using in assessing a particular consideration during a court proceeding. (JAC)

  6. How a Venture Capitalist Approaches an Investment Decision

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colbert, Daniel

    2012-02-01

    In this talk, I will provide a high-level overview of the venture capital history, structure, process and approaches to investing in early-stage companies. I will discuss what VCs look for, and share some dos and don'ts for entrepreneurs looking for venture funding. I will close with a description of the Tatarstand CleanTech Fund, and some examples of deals we invested in and passed over and why.

  7. Investigating Habitat Value in Support of Contaminant Remediation Decisions: Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Efroymson, Rebecca Ann; Peterson, Mark J; Welsh, Christopher John Edward; Druckenbrod, Daniel L; Ryon, Michael G; Smith, John G; Hargrove, William Walter; Giffen, Neil R; Roy, W Kelly; Quarles III, Harry Dewitt

    2008-01-01

    Habitat valuation methods are most often developed and used to prioritize candidate lands for conservation. In this study the intent of habitat valuation was to inform the decision-making process for remediation of chemical contaminants on specific lands or surface water bodies. Methods were developed to summarize dimensions of habitat value for six representative aquatic and terrestrial contaminated sites at the East Tennessee Technology Park (ETTP) on the US Department of Energy Oak Ridge Reservation in Oak Ridge, TN, USA. Several general valuation metrics were developed for three broad categories: site use by groups of organisms, site rarity, and use value added from spatial context. Examples of use value metrics are taxa richness, a direct measure of number of species that inhabit an area, complexity of habitat structure, an indirect measure of potential number of species that may use the area, and land use designation, a measure of the length of time that the area will be available for use. Measures of rarity included presence of rare species or communities. Examples of metrics for habitat use value added from spatial context included similarity or complementarity of neighboring habitat patches and presence of habitat corridors. More specific metrics were developed for groups of organisms in contaminated streams, ponds, and terrestrial ecosystems. For each of these metrics, cutoff values for high, medium, and low habitat value were suggested, based on available information on distributions of organisms and landscape features, as well as habitat use information. A companion paper describes the implementation of these habitat valuation metrics and scoring criteria in the remedial investigation for ETTP.

  8. Improving the Process of Career Decision Making: An Action Research Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greenbank, Paul

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: This study adopts an action research approach with the aim of improving the process of career decision making among undergraduates in a business school at a "new" university in the UK. Design/methodology/approach: The study utilised unfreezing techniques, multiple case studies in conjunction with the principle of analogical encoding, and…

  9. A Relational Approach to Moral Decision-Making: The Majority Opinion in "Planned Parenthood v. Casey."

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sullivan, Patricia A.; Goldzwig, Steven R.

    1995-01-01

    Defines a relational approach to moral reasoning. Notes that the Supreme Court, in "Planned Parenthood v. Casey," rejected simplistic approaches to moral reasoning and acknowledged the complex web of relationships involved in abortion decision making. Suggests that rhetoricians "revision" the art of persuasion to place more emphasis on relational…

  10. Consumer Education Curriculum Modules: A Spiral-Process Approach. 3. Decision Process.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murphy, Patricia D.; And Others

    The Decision Process curriculum module is part of a consumer education series (grades 9-14; adults, including elderly) that emphasizes a process approach with a spiral organization. The process approach helps the student in a changing consumer world to function rationally and in a manner consistent with personal values, while the spiral…

  11. Assessing the Benefits of Wetland Restoration: A Rapid Benefit Indicators Approach for Decision Makers

    EPA Science Inventory

    This guide presents the Rapid Benefits Indicators (RBI) Approach, a rapid process for assessing the social benefits of ecosystem restoration. Created for those who conduct, advocate for, or support restoration, the RBI approach consists of five steps: (1) Describe the decision co...

  12. Exposure models for the prior distribution in bayesian decision analysis for occupational hygiene decision making.

    PubMed

    Lee, Eun Gyung; Kim, Seung Won; Feigley, Charles E; Harper, Martin

    2013-01-01

    This study introduces two semi-quantitative methods, Structured Subjective Assessment (SSA) and Control of Substances Hazardous to Health (COSHH) Essentials, in conjunction with two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations for determining prior probabilities. Prior distribution using expert judgment was included for comparison. Practical applications of the proposed methods were demonstrated using personal exposure measurements of isoamyl acetate in an electronics manufacturing facility and of isopropanol in a printing shop. Applicability of these methods in real workplaces was discussed based on the advantages and disadvantages of each method. Although these methods could not be completely independent of expert judgments, this study demonstrated a methodological improvement in the estimation of the prior distribution for the Bayesian decision analysis tool. The proposed methods provide a logical basis for the decision process by considering determinants of worker exposure. PMID:23252451

  13. Exposure models for the prior distribution in bayesian decision analysis for occupational hygiene decision making.

    PubMed

    Lee, Eun Gyung; Kim, Seung Won; Feigley, Charles E; Harper, Martin

    2013-01-01

    This study introduces two semi-quantitative methods, Structured Subjective Assessment (SSA) and Control of Substances Hazardous to Health (COSHH) Essentials, in conjunction with two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations for determining prior probabilities. Prior distribution using expert judgment was included for comparison. Practical applications of the proposed methods were demonstrated using personal exposure measurements of isoamyl acetate in an electronics manufacturing facility and of isopropanol in a printing shop. Applicability of these methods in real workplaces was discussed based on the advantages and disadvantages of each method. Although these methods could not be completely independent of expert judgments, this study demonstrated a methodological improvement in the estimation of the prior distribution for the Bayesian decision analysis tool. The proposed methods provide a logical basis for the decision process by considering determinants of worker exposure.

  14. Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA): A novel practical guidance for Climate Resilient Investments and Planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeuken, Ad; Mendoza, Guillermo; Matthews, John; Ray, Patrick; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Gilroy, Kristin; Olsen, Rolf; Kucharski, John; Stakhiv, Gene; Cushing, Janet; Brown, Casey

    2016-04-01

    over time. They are part of the Dutch adaptive planning approach Adaptive Delta Management, executed and develop by the Dutch Delta program. Both decision scaling and adaptation pathways have been piloted in studies worldwide. The objective of CRIDA is to mainstream effective climate adaptation for professional water managers. The CRIDA publication, due in april 2016, follows the generic water design planning design cycle. At each step, CRIDA describes stepwise guidance for incorporating climate robustness: problem definition, stress test, alternatives formulation and recommendation, evaluation and selection. In the presentation the origin, goal, steps and practical tools available at each step of CRIDA will be explained. In two other abstracts ("Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region" by Gilroy et al., "The Application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis to the Ioland Water Treatment Plant in Lusaka, Zambia, by Kucharski et al.), the application of CRIDA to cases is explained

  15. Using the fuzzy majority approach for GIS-based multicriteria group decision-making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boroushaki, Soheil; Malczewski, Jacek

    2010-03-01

    This paper is concerned with developing a framework for GIS-based multicriteria group decision-making using the fuzzy majority approach. The procedure for solving a spatial group decision-making problem involves two stages. First, each decision-maker solves the problem individually. Second, the individual solutions are aggregated to obtain a group solution. The first stage is operationalized by a linguistic quantifier-guided ordered weighted averaging (OWA) procedure to create individual decision-maker's solution maps. Then the individual maps are combined using the fuzzy majority procedure to generate the group solution map which synthesizes the majority of the decision-makers' preferences. The paper provides an illustrative example of the fuzzy majority method for a land suitability problem. It also demonstrates the implementation of the framework within the ArcGIS environment.

  16. Accommodating complexity and human behaviors in decision analysis.

    SciTech Connect

    Backus, George A.; Siirola, John Daniel; Schoenwald, David Alan; Strip, David R.; Hirsch, Gary B.; Bastian, Mark S.; Braithwaite, Karl R.; Homer, Jack

    2007-11-01

    This is the final report for a LDRD effort to address human behavior in decision support systems. One sister LDRD effort reports the extension of this work to include actual human choices and additional simulation analyses. Another provides the background for this effort and the programmatic directions for future work. This specific effort considered the feasibility of five aspects of model development required for analysis viability. To avoid the use of classified information, healthcare decisions and the system embedding them became the illustrative example for assessment.

  17. Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

    2013-06-01

    Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

  18. The potential for meta-analysis to support decision analysis in ecology.

    PubMed

    Mengersen, Kerrie; MacNeil, M Aaron; Caley, M Julian

    2015-06-01

    Meta-analysis and decision analysis are underpinned by well-developed methods that are commonly applied to a variety of problems and disciplines. While these two fields have been closely linked in some disciplines such as medicine, comparatively little attention has been paid to the potential benefits of linking them in ecology, despite reasonable expectations that benefits would be derived from doing so. Meta-analysis combines information from multiple studies to provide more accurate parameter estimates and to reduce the uncertainty surrounding them. Decision analysis involves selecting among alternative choices using statistical information that helps to shed light on the uncertainties involved. By linking meta-analysis to decision analysis, improved decisions can be made, with quantification of the costs and benefits of alternate decisions supported by a greater density of information. Here, we briefly review concepts of both meta-analysis and decision analysis, illustrating the natural linkage between them and the benefits from explicitly linking one to the other. We discuss some examples in which this linkage has been exploited in the medical arena and how improvements in precision and reduction of structural uncertainty inherent in a meta-analysis can provide substantive improvements to decision analysis outcomes by reducing uncertainty in expected loss and maximising information from across studies. We then argue that these significant benefits could be translated to ecology, in particular to the problem of making optimal ecological decisions in the face of uncertainty.

  19. A Semantic Approach with Decision Support for Safety Service in Smart Home Management.

    PubMed

    Huang, Xiaoci; Yi, Jianjun; Zhu, Xiaomin; Chen, Shaoli

    2016-01-01

    Research on smart homes (SHs) has increased significantly in recent years because of the convenience provided by having an assisted living environment. The functions of SHs as mentioned in previous studies, particularly safety services, are seldom discussed or mentioned. Thus, this study proposes a semantic approach with decision support for safety service in SH management. The focus of this contribution is to explore a context awareness and reasoning approach for risk recognition in SH that enables the proper decision support for flexible safety service provision. The framework of SH based on a wireless sensor network is described from the perspective of neighbourhood management. This approach is based on the integration of semantic knowledge in which a reasoner can make decisions about risk recognition and safety service. We present a management ontology for a SH and relevant monitoring contextual information, which considers its suitability in a pervasive computing environment and is service-oriented. We also propose a rule-based reasoning method to provide decision support through reasoning techniques and context-awareness. A system prototype is developed to evaluate the feasibility, time response and extendibility of the approach. The evaluation of our approach shows that it is more effective in daily risk event recognition. The decisions for service provision are shown to be accurate.

  20. A Semantic Approach with Decision Support for Safety Service in Smart Home Management

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Xiaoci; Yi, Jianjun; Zhu, Xiaomin; Chen, Shaoli

    2016-01-01

    Research on smart homes (SHs) has increased significantly in recent years because of the convenience provided by having an assisted living environment. The functions of SHs as mentioned in previous studies, particularly safety services, are seldom discussed or mentioned. Thus, this study proposes a semantic approach with decision support for safety service in SH management. The focus of this contribution is to explore a context awareness and reasoning approach for risk recognition in SH that enables the proper decision support for flexible safety service provision. The framework of SH based on a wireless sensor network is described from the perspective of neighbourhood management. This approach is based on the integration of semantic knowledge in which a reasoner can make decisions about risk recognition and safety service. We present a management ontology for a SH and relevant monitoring contextual information, which considers its suitability in a pervasive computing environment and is service-oriented. We also propose a rule-based reasoning method to provide decision support through reasoning techniques and context-awareness. A system prototype is developed to evaluate the feasibility, time response and extendibility of the approach. The evaluation of our approach shows that it is more effective in daily risk event recognition. The decisions for service provision are shown to be accurate. PMID:27527170

  1. A Semantic Approach with Decision Support for Safety Service in Smart Home Management.

    PubMed

    Huang, Xiaoci; Yi, Jianjun; Zhu, Xiaomin; Chen, Shaoli

    2016-01-01

    Research on smart homes (SHs) has increased significantly in recent years because of the convenience provided by having an assisted living environment. The functions of SHs as mentioned in previous studies, particularly safety services, are seldom discussed or mentioned. Thus, this study proposes a semantic approach with decision support for safety service in SH management. The focus of this contribution is to explore a context awareness and reasoning approach for risk recognition in SH that enables the proper decision support for flexible safety service provision. The framework of SH based on a wireless sensor network is described from the perspective of neighbourhood management. This approach is based on the integration of semantic knowledge in which a reasoner can make decisions about risk recognition and safety service. We present a management ontology for a SH and relevant monitoring contextual information, which considers its suitability in a pervasive computing environment and is service-oriented. We also propose a rule-based reasoning method to provide decision support through reasoning techniques and context-awareness. A system prototype is developed to evaluate the feasibility, time response and extendibility of the approach. The evaluation of our approach shows that it is more effective in daily risk event recognition. The decisions for service provision are shown to be accurate. PMID:27527170

  2. Considering a decision-making approach to youth violence prevention programs.

    PubMed

    Haynie, D L; Alexander, C; Walters, S R

    1997-05-01

    The unfortunate exception to a general downturn in violent crime involves an upsurge in violence among youth. Violence often results when minor confrontations escalate. As school violence increasingly has become widespread, schools have become the location of many violence prevention efforts, few of which have been evaluated adequately. This paper focuses on enhancing decision-making skills as one approach to increase adolescents' ability to manage interpersonal violence. Adolescents can be considered fairly skilled decision-makers and their unique perspective must be considered in development of effective intervention programs. Data from a pilot study were examined for insights about adolescents' ability to make decisions in situations of interpersonal conflict. PMID:9210100

  3. An efficient fusion approach for combining human and machine decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Hyungtae; Kwon, Heesung; Robinson, Ryan M.; Nothwang, William D.; Marathe, Amar R.

    2016-05-01

    A novel approach for the fusion of heterogeneous object classification methods is proposed. In order to effectively integrate the outputs of multiple classifiers, the level of ambiguity in each individual classification score is estimated using the precision/recall relationship of the corresponding classifier. The main contribution of the proposed work is a novel fusion method, referred to as Dynamic Belief Fusion (DBF), which dynamically assigns probabilities to hypotheses (target, non-target, intermediate state (target or non-target) based on confidence levels in the classification results conditioned on the prior performance of individual classifiers. In DBF, a joint basic probability assignment, which is obtained from optimally fusing information from all classifiers, is determined by the Dempster's combination rule, and is easily reduced to a single fused classification score. Experiments on RSVP dataset demonstrates that the recognition accuracy of DBF is considerably greater than that of the conventional naive Bayesian fusion as well as individual classifiers used for the fusion.

  4. Risk-Based Prioritization of Research for Aviation Security Using Logic-Evolved Decision Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eisenhawer, S. W.; Bott, T. F.; Sorokach, M. R.; Jones, F. P.; Foggia, J. R.

    2004-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is developing advanced technologies to reduce terrorist risk for the air transportation system. Decision support tools are needed to help allocate assets to the most promising research. An approach to rank ordering technologies (using logic-evolved decision analysis), with risk reduction as the metric, is presented. The development of a spanning set of scenarios using a logic-gate tree is described. Baseline risk for these scenarios is evaluated with an approximate reasoning model. Illustrative risk and risk reduction results are presented.

  5. A new tool for analysis of cleanup criteria decisions.

    PubMed

    Klemic, Gladys A; Bailey, Paul; Elcock, Deborah

    2003-08-01

    Radionuclides and other hazardous materials resulting from processes used in nuclear weapons production contaminate soil, groundwater, and buildings around the United States. Cleanup criteria for environmental contaminants are agreed on prior to remediation and underpin the scope and legacy of the cleanup process. Analysis of cleanup criteria can be relevant for future agreements and may also provide insight into a complex decision making process where science and policy issues converge. An Internet accessible database has been established to summarize cleanup criteria and related factors involved in U.S. Department of Energy remediation decisions. This paper reports on a new user interface for the database that is designed to integrate related information into graphic displays and tables with interactive features that allow exploratory data analysis of cleanup criteria. Analysis of 137Cs in surface soil is presented as an example.

  6. Use of stochastic multi-criteria decision analysis to support sustainable management of contaminated sediments.

    PubMed

    Sparrevik, Magnus; Barton, David N; Bates, Mathew E; Linkov, Igor

    2012-02-01

    Sustainable management of contaminated sediments requires careful prioritization of available resources and focuses on efforts to optimize decisions that consider environmental, economic, and societal aspects simultaneously. This may be achieved by combining different analytical approaches such as risk analysis (RA), life cycle analysis (LCA), multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), and economic valuation methods. We propose the use of stochastic MCDA based on outranking algorithms to implement integrative sustainability strategies for sediment management. In this paper we use the method to select the best sediment management alternatives for the dibenzo-p-dioxin and -furan (PCDD/F) contaminated Grenland fjord in Norway. In the analysis, the benefits of health risk reductions and socio-economic benefits from removing seafood health advisories are evaluated against the detriments of remedial costs and life cycle environmental impacts. A value-plural based weighing of criteria is compared to criteria weights mimicking traditional cost-effectiveness (CEA) and cost-benefit (CBA) analyses. Capping highly contaminated areas in the inner or outer fjord is identified as the most preferable remediation alternative under all criteria schemes and the results are confirmed by a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The proposed methodology can serve as a flexible framework for future decision support and can be a step toward more sustainable decision making for contaminated sediment management. It may be applicable to the broader field of ecosystem restoration for trade-off analysis between ecosystem services and restoration costs.

  7. The JPL Cost Risk Analysis Approach that Incorporates Engineering Realism

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harmon, Corey C.; Warfield, Keith R.; Rosenberg, Leigh S.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the JPL Cost Engineering Group (CEG) cost risk analysis approach that accounts for all three types of cost risk. It will also describe the evaluation of historical cost data upon which this method is based. This investigation is essential in developing a method that is rooted in engineering realism and produces credible, dependable results to aid decision makers.

  8. Decision trees for symbolic knowledge based on contingency table analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rauber, Thomas W.; Steiger-Garcao, A. S.

    1993-09-01

    In this paper we point out an alternative basis for splitting a node of a decision tree. We use exactly the same framework of the tree generation as ID3 does, in order to be able to compare the results properly. The splitting of the sample set is also done locally at a tree node, without considering earlier decisions about the partition of the samples. Only one attribute is used to split the samples. We point out different splitting criteria. Contingency tables are a technique in nonparametric statistics to analyze categorical (symbolic) populations. Among other useful applications of contingency tables, dependence tests between rows and columns of the table can be performed. A sample set is inserted into a contingency table with classes as columns and all values of an attribute as rows. A variety of measurements of dependence can then be derived. Results in respect to the two most important qualities of decision trees, the error rate and tree complexity, are presented. For a set of selected benchmark examples the performance of ID3 and the contingency table approach are compared. It is shown that in many cases the contingency table method exhibits lower estimated error rates or has less nodes for the generated decision tree.

  9. Decerns: A framework for multi-criteria decision analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Yatsalo, Boris; Didenko, Vladimir; Gritsyuk, Sergey; Sullivan, Terry

    2015-02-27

    A new framework, Decerns, for multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) of a wide range of practical problems on risk management is introduced. Decerns framework contains a library of modules that are the basis for two scalable systems: DecernsMCDA for analysis of multicriteria problems, and DecernsSDSS for multicriteria analysis of spatial options. DecernsMCDA includes well known MCDA methods and original methods for uncertainty treatment based on probabilistic approaches and fuzzy numbers. As a result, these MCDA methods are described along with a case study on analysis of multicriteria location problem.

  10. Multi-criteria decision analysis: Limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties

    SciTech Connect

    Kujawski, Edouard

    2003-02-01

    The 2002 Winter Olympics women's figure skating competition is used as a case study to illustrate some of the limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The paper compares several widely used models for synthesizing the multiple attributes into a single aggregate value. The various MCDA models can provide conflicting rankings of the alternatives for a common set of information even under states of certainty. Analysts involved in MCDA need to deal with the following challenging tasks: (1) selecting an appropriate analysis method, and (2) properly interpreting the results. An additional trap is the availability of software tools that implement specific MCDA models that can beguile the user with quantitative scores. These conclusions are independent of the decision domain and they should help foster better MCDA practices in many fields including systems engineering trade studies.

  11. Guide to IDAP, Version 2: an interactive decision analysis procedure

    SciTech Connect

    Jusko, M.J.; Whitfield, R.G.

    1980-11-01

    This document is intended to serve as both a programmer's and user's guide to the current version of the IDAP; and to prompt interested individuals into making suggestions for the future development of IDAP. The majority of the sections pertain to the main IDA program rather than to the IDAIN procedure. A brief discussion is presented of the theory of decision analysis. The aspects of decision analysis that are relevant to the IDAP are discussed. A complete list and description of the commands used in the IDAP program is provided and, including three complete examples. This section may be considered a user's guide to the IDAP. The programmer's guide to the IDAP discusses the various technical aspects of the programs, and may be skipped by users not involved with programming the IDAP. A list of the error messages generated by the IDAP is presented. As the program is developed, error handling and messages will improve.

  12. Closed-Loop Analysis of Soft Decisions for Serial Links

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lansdowne, Chatwin A.; Steele, Glen F.; Zucha, Joan P.; Schlensinger, Adam M.

    2012-01-01

    Modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios use error-correction techniques that approach Shannon s theoretical limit of performance. The authors describe the benefit of closed-loop measurements for a receiver when paired with a counterpart transmitter and representative channel conditions. We also describe a real-time Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in real-time during the development of software defined radios.

  13. An approach to solve group-decision-making problems with ordinal interval numbers.

    PubMed

    Fan, Zhi-Ping; Liu, Yang

    2010-10-01

    The ordinal interval number is a form of uncertain preference information in group decision making (GDM), while it is seldom discussed in the existing research. This paper investigates how the ranking order of alternatives is determined based on preference information of ordinal interval numbers in GDM problems. When ranking a large quantity of ordinal interval numbers, the efficiency and accuracy of the ranking process are critical. A new approach is proposed to rank alternatives using ordinal interval numbers when every ranking ordinal in an ordinal interval number is thought to be uniformly and independently distributed in its interval. First, we give the definition of possibility degree on comparing two ordinal interval numbers and the related theory analysis. Then, to rank alternatives, by comparing multiple ordinal interval numbers, a collective expectation possibility degree matrix on pairwise comparisons of alternatives is built, and an optimization model based on this matrix is constructed. Furthermore, an algorithm is also presented to rank alternatives by solving the model. Finally, two examples are used to illustrate the use of the proposed approach. PMID:20172834

  14. A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karjalainen, T. P.; Rossi, P. M.; Ala-aho, P.; Eskelinen, R.; Reinikainen, K.; Kløve, B.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Yang, H.

    2013-07-01

    Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI) approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of an MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assess their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context, and the critical issues for the further process.

  15. A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karjalainen, T. P.; Rossi, P. M.; Ala-aho, P.; Eskelinen, R.; Reinikainen, K.; Kløve, B.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Yang, H.

    2013-12-01

    Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision-making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI) approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of the MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assessed their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context and the critical issues for the further process.

  16. Determining location and size of medical departments in a hospital network: a multiobjective decision support approach.

    PubMed

    Stummer, Christian; Doerner, Karl; Focke, Axel; Heidenberger, Kurt

    2004-02-01

    Decisions on the location and size of medical departments in a given hospital network are prime examples of priority setting in health care, which is an issue of growing political importance. As such decisions are regularly characterized by multiple and often conflicting objectives in real-life, this paper integrates the fields of hospital planning and multiobjective decision support. The proposed two-phase solution procedure for our corresponding mathematical programming model does not require a priori preference information. Instead, it seeks efficient solutions by means of multiobjective tabu search in the first phase, while applying clustering in the second phase to allow the decision makers to interactively explore the solution space until the "best" configuration is determined. The real-world applicability of our approach is illustrated through a numerical example based on hospital data from Germany. PMID:14977095

  17. The First Flight Decision for New Human Spacecraft Vehicles - A General Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schaible, Dawn M.; Sumrall, John Phillip

    2011-01-01

    Determining when it is safe to fly a crew on a launch vehicle/spacecraft for the first time, especially when the test flight is a part of the overall system certification process, has long been a challenge for program decision makers. The decision on first flight is ultimately the judgment of the program and agency management in conjunction with the design and operations team. To aid in this decision process, a NASA team undertook the task to develop a generic framework for evaluating whether any given program or commercial provider has sufficiently complete and balanced plans in place to allow crewmembers to safely fly on human spaceflight systems for the first time. It was the team s goal to establish a generic framework that could easily be applied to any new system, although the system design and intended mission would require specific assessment. Historical data shows that there are multiple approaches that have been successful in first flight with crew. These approaches have always been tailored to the specific system design, mission objectives, and launch environment. Because specific approaches may vary significantly between different system designs and situations, prescriptive instructions or thorough checklists cannot be provided ahead of time. There are, however, certain general approaches that should be applied in thinking through the decision for first flight. This paper addresses some of the most important factors to consider when developing a new system or evaluating an existing system for whether or not it is safe to fly humans to/from space. In the simplest terms, it is time to fly crew for the first time when it is safe to do so and the benefit of the crewed flight is greater than the residual risk. This is rarely a straight-forward decision. The paper describes the need for experience, sound judgment, close involvement of the technical and management teams, and established decision processes. In addition, the underlying level of confidence the

  18. Spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis for managing vector-borne diseases.

    PubMed

    Hongoh, Valerie; Hoen, Anne Gatewood; Aenishaenslin, Cécile; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Bélanger, Denise; Michel, Pascal

    2011-12-29

    The complex epidemiology of vector-borne diseases creates significant challenges in the design and delivery of prevention and control strategies, especially in light of rapid social and environmental changes. Spatial models for predicting disease risk based on environmental factors such as climate and landscape have been developed for a number of important vector-borne diseases. The resulting risk maps have proven value for highlighting areas for targeting public health programs. However, these methods generally only offer technical information on the spatial distribution of disease risk itself, which may be incomplete for making decisions in a complex situation. In prioritizing surveillance and intervention strategies, decision-makers often also need to consider spatially explicit information on other important dimensions, such as the regional specificity of public acceptance, population vulnerability, resource availability, intervention effectiveness, and land use. There is a need for a unified strategy for supporting public health decision making that integrates available data for assessing spatially explicit disease risk, with other criteria, to implement effective prevention and control strategies. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a decision support tool that allows for the consideration of diverse quantitative and qualitative criteria using both data-driven and qualitative indicators for evaluating alternative strategies with transparency and stakeholder participation. Here we propose a MCDA-based approach to the development of geospatial models and spatially explicit decision support tools for the management of vector-borne diseases. We describe the conceptual framework that MCDA offers as well as technical considerations, approaches to implementation and expected outcomes. We conclude that MCDA is a powerful tool that offers tremendous potential for use in public health decision-making in general and vector-borne disease management in particular.

  19. Spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis for managing vector-borne diseases

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    The complex epidemiology of vector-borne diseases creates significant challenges in the design and delivery of prevention and control strategies, especially in light of rapid social and environmental changes. Spatial models for predicting disease risk based on environmental factors such as climate and landscape have been developed for a number of important vector-borne diseases. The resulting risk maps have proven value for highlighting areas for targeting public health programs. However, these methods generally only offer technical information on the spatial distribution of disease risk itself, which may be incomplete for making decisions in a complex situation. In prioritizing surveillance and intervention strategies, decision-makers often also need to consider spatially explicit information on other important dimensions, such as the regional specificity of public acceptance, population vulnerability, resource availability, intervention effectiveness, and land use. There is a need for a unified strategy for supporting public health decision making that integrates available data for assessing spatially explicit disease risk, with other criteria, to implement effective prevention and control strategies. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a decision support tool that allows for the consideration of diverse quantitative and qualitative criteria using both data-driven and qualitative indicators for evaluating alternative strategies with transparency and stakeholder participation. Here we propose a MCDA-based approach to the development of geospatial models and spatially explicit decision support tools for the management of vector-borne diseases. We describe the conceptual framework that MCDA offers as well as technical considerations, approaches to implementation and expected outcomes. We conclude that MCDA is a powerful tool that offers tremendous potential for use in public health decision-making in general and vector-borne disease management in particular

  20. Using a service oriented architecture approach to clinical decision support: performance results from two CDS Consortium demonstrations.

    PubMed

    Paterno, Marilyn D; Goldberg, Howard S; Simonaitis, Linas; Dixon, Brian E; Wright, Adam; Rocha, Beatriz H; Ramelson, Harley Z; Middleton, Blackford

    2012-01-01

    The Clinical Decision Support Consortium has completed two demonstration trials involving a web service for the execution of clinical decision support (CDS) rules in one or more electronic health record (EHR) systems. The initial trial ran in a local EHR at Partners HealthCare. A second EHR site, associated with Wishard Memorial Hospital, Indianapolis, IN, was added in the second trial. Data were gathered during each 6 month period and analyzed to assess performance, reliability, and response time in the form of means and standard deviations for all technical components of the service, including assembling and preparation of input data. The mean service call time for each period was just over 2 seconds. In this paper we report on the findings and analysis to date while describing the areas for further analysis and optimization as we continue to expand our use of a Services Oriented Architecture approach for CDS across multiple institutions.

  1. Power system distributed on-line fault section estimation using decision tree based neural nets approach

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, H.T.; Chang, W.Y.; Huang, C.L.

    1995-01-01

    This paper proposes a distributed neural nets decision approach to on-line estimation of the fault section of a transmission and distribution (T and D) system. The distributed processing alleviates the burden of communication between the control center and local substations, and increases the reliability and flexibility of the diagnosis system. Besides, by using the algorithms of data-driven decision tree induction and direct mapping from the decision tree into neural net, the proposed diagnosis system features parallel processing and easy implementation, overcoming the limitations of overly large and complex system. The approach has been practically tested on a typical Taiwan Power (Taipower) T and D system. The feasibility of such a diagnosis system is presented.

  2. Decision Consequence Model (DCM): Integrating environmental data and analysis into real time decision making

    SciTech Connect

    Cimorelli, A.J.; Stahl, C.H.; Chow, A.H.; Fernandez, C.

    1999-07-01

    A critical evaluation of the many environmental issues facing EPA Region 3 has established five major priorities: (1) ozone pollution (and its precursors); (2) impacts of acidification (acid deposition and acid mine drainage); (3) eutrophication of the Chesapeake Bay from atmospheric nitrogen deposition; (4) Cities/Urban Environment (ozone, particulate matter (PM), air toxics are some of the air components); and (5) Climate Change. Recognizing the complex nature of the systems controlling these issues, Region III's Air Protection Division (APD) is developing a decision support tool, i.e., the Decision Consequence Model (DCM), that will integrate and automate the analysis of environmental impacts in a manner that allows them to holistically address these regional priorities. Using this tool the authors intend to consider the interdependency of pollutants and their environmental impacts in order to support real-time decision making. The purpose of this paper is to outline the basic concept of the DCM and to present an example set of environmental indicators to illustrate how the DCM will be used to evaluate environmental impacts. The authors will discuss their process of indicator development, and present an example suite of indicators to provide a concrete example of the concepts presented above and, to illustrate the utility of the DCM to simultaneously evaluate multiple effects of a single pollutant. They will discuss the type of indicators chosen for this example as well as the general criteria the DCM indicators must satisfy. The framework that was developed to construct the indicators is discussed and used to calculate the example indicators. The yearly magnitudes of these example indicators are calculated for various multi-year periods to show their behavior over time.

  3. DISPLA: decision information system for procurement and logistics analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Calvo, Alberto B.; Danish, Alexander J.; Lamonakis, Gregory G.

    2002-08-01

    This paper describes an information-exchange system for Display systems acquisition and logistics support. DISPLA (Decision Information System for Procurement and Logistics Analysis) is an Internet-based system concept for bringing sellers (display system and component suppliers) and buyers (Government Program Offices and System Integrators) together in an electronic exchange to improve the acquisition and logistics analysis support of Flat Panel Displays for the military. A proof-of-concept demonstration is presented in this paper using sample data from vendor Web sites and Government data sources.

  4. Approach of decision making based on the analytic hierarchy process for urban landscape management.

    PubMed

    Srdjevic, Zorica; Lakicevic, Milena; Srdjevic, Bojan

    2013-03-01

    This paper proposes a two-stage group decision making approach to urban landscape management and planning supported by the analytic hierarchy process. The proposed approach combines an application of the consensus convergence model and the weighted geometric mean method. The application of the proposed approach is shown on a real urban landscape planning problem with a park-forest in Belgrade, Serbia. Decision makers were policy makers, i.e., representatives of several key national and municipal institutions, and experts coming from different scientific fields. As a result, the most suitable management plan from the set of plans is recognized. It includes both native vegetation renewal in degraded areas of park-forest and continued maintenance of its dominant tourism function. Decision makers included in this research consider the approach to be transparent and useful for addressing landscape management tasks. The central idea of this paper can be understood in a broader sense and easily applied to other decision making problems in various scientific fields.

  5. Examining Preservice Teachers' Classroom Management Decisions in Three Case-Based Teaching Approaches

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cevik, Yasemin Demiraslan; Andre, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    This study was aimed at comparing the impact of three types of case-based approaches (worked example, faded work example, and case-based reasoning) on preservice teachers' decision making and reasoning skills related to realistic classroom management situations. Participants in this study received a short-term implementation of one of these three…

  6. SDSM-DC: A smarter approach to downscaling for decision-making? (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilby, R. L.; Dawson, C. W.

    2013-12-01

    General Circulation Model (GCM) output has been used for downscaling and impact assessments for at least 25 years. Downscaling methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to human and natural systems. However, there are relatively few instances where these analyses have translated into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that conventional ';top down' downscaling typically yields very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and local scales. Consequently, there are growing calls to use downscaling tools in smarter ways that refocus attention on the decision problem rather than on the climate modelling per se. The talk begins with an overview of various application of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) over the last decade. This sample offers insights to downscaling practice in terms of regions and sectors of interest, modes of application and adaptation outcomes. The decision-centred rationale and functionality of the latest version of SDSM is then explained. This new downscaling tool does not require GCM input but enables the user to generate plausible daily weather scenarios that may be informed by climate model and/or palaeoenvironmental information. Importantly, the tool is intended for stress-testing adaptation options rather than for exhaustive analysis of uncertainty components. The approach is demonstrated by downscaling multi-basin, multi-elevation temperature and precipitation scenarios for the Upper Colorado River Basin. These scenarios are used alongside other narratives of future conditions that might potential affect the security of water supplies, and for evaluating steps that can be taken to manage these risks.

  7. Strategic Technology Investment Analysis: An Integrated System Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Adumitroaie, V.; Weisbin, C. R.

    2010-01-01

    Complex technology investment decisions within NASA are increasingly difficult to make such that the end results are satisfying the technical objectives and all the organizational constraints. Due to a restricted science budget environment and numerous required technology developments, the investment decisions need to take into account not only the functional impact on the program goals, but also development uncertainties and cost variations along with maintaining a healthy workforce. This paper describes an approach for optimizing and qualifying technology investment portfolios from the perspective of an integrated system model. The methodology encompasses multi-attribute decision theory elements and sensitivity analysis. The evaluation of the degree of robustness of the recommended portfolio provides the decision-maker with an array of viable selection alternatives, which take into account input uncertainties and possibly satisfy nontechnical constraints. The methodology is presented in the context of assessing capability development portfolios for NASA technology programs.

  8. The xeroderma pigmentosum pathway: decision tree analysis of DNA quality.

    PubMed

    Naegeli, Hanspeter; Sugasawa, Kaoru

    2011-07-15

    The nucleotide excision repair (NER) system is a fundamental cellular stress response that uses only a handful of DNA binding factors, mutated in the cancer-prone syndrome xeroderma pigmentosum (XP), to detect an astounding diversity of bulky base lesions, including those induced by ultraviolet light, electrophilic chemicals, oxygen radicals and further genetic insults. Several of these XP proteins are characterized by a mediocre preference for damaged substrates over the native double helix but, intriguingly, none of them recognizes injured bases with sufficient selectivity to account for the very high precision of bulky lesion excision. Instead, substrate versatility as well as damage specificity and strand selectivity are achieved by a multistage quality control strategy whereby different subunits of the XP pathway, in succession, interrogate the DNA double helix for a distinct abnormality in its structural or dynamic parameters. Through this step-by-step filtering procedure, the XP proteins operate like a systematic decision making tool, generally known as decision tree analysis, to sort out rare damaged bases embedded in a vast excess of native DNA. The present review is focused on the mechanisms by which multiple XP subunits of the NER pathway contribute to the proposed decision tree analysis of DNA quality in eukaryotic cells. PMID:21684221

  9. Health care priority setting in Norway a multicriteria decision analysis

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Priority setting in population health is increasingly based on explicitly formulated values. The Patients Rights Act of the Norwegian tax-based health service guaranties all citizens health care in case of a severe illness, a proven health benefit, and proportionality between need and treatment. This study compares the values of the country's health policy makers with these three official principles. Methods In total 34 policy makers participated in a discrete choice experiment, weighting the relative value of six policy criteria. We used multi-variate logistic regression with selection as dependent valuable to derive odds ratios for each criterion. Next, we constructed a composite league table - based on the sum score for the probability of selection - to rank potential interventions in five major disease areas. Results The group considered cost effectiveness, large individual benefits and severity of disease as the most important criteria in decision making. Priority interventions are those related to cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases. Less attractive interventions rank those related to mental health. Conclusions Norwegian policy makers' values are in agreement with principles formulated in national health laws. Multi-criteria decision approaches may provide a tool to support explicit allocation decisions. PMID:22335815

  10. Toward image analysis and decision support for ultrasound technology.

    PubMed

    Crofts, Gillian; Padman, Rema; Maharaja, Nisha

    2013-01-01

    Ultrasound is a low cost and efficient method of detecting diseases and abnormalities in the body. Yet there is a lack of precision and reliability associated with the technology, partly due to the operator dependent nature of ultrasound scanning. When scanning is performed to an agreed protocol, ultrasound has been shown to be highly reliable. This research aims to minimize these limitations that arise during ultrasound training, scanning and reporting by developing and evaluating an image analysis and decision support system that can aid the decision making process. We hypothesize that this intervention will likely increase the role of ultrasound in diagnosis when compared with other imaging technologies, particularly in low resource settings. PMID:23920862

  11. Levels of Analysis in Mass Media Decision Making: A Taxonomy, Research Strategy, and Illustrative Data Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dimmick, John; Coit, Philip

    1982-01-01

    Presents a taxonomy of influences on decision making in mass media. Illustrates the use of the taxonomy and research strategy in a quantitative analysis of influences on the decision autonomy of reporters. Results indicate that reporters' experience plays the most important role in explaining their story selection/content autonomy. (PD)

  12. HUMAN HEALTH METRICS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS: LESSONS FROM HEALTH ECONOMICS AND DECISION ANALYSIS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Decision makers using environmental decision support tools are often confronted with information that predicts a multitude of different human health effects due to environmental stressors. If these health effects need to be contrasted with costs or compared with alternative scena...

  13. A dynamic novel approach for bid/no-bid decision-making.

    PubMed

    Shi, Huawang; Yin, Hang; Wei, Lianyu

    2016-01-01

    The process of bid/no-bid decision-making is su bjected to uncertainty and influence of complex criteria. This paper proposed an application of the integration of rough sets (RS) and improved general regression neural network (GRNN) based on niche particle swarm optimization (NPSO) algorithm for tendering decision making. The decision table of RS and the attribution reduction was processed by MIBARK algorithm to simply the samples of GRNN. In order to improve the general regression neural network (GRNN) network performance, the niche particle swarm optimization (NPSO) was used to optimize the spread parameter σ of GRNN neural network, then a novel Bid/no-bid decision model was established based on RS and NPSO-GRNN neural network algorithm. The applicability of the proposed model was tested using real cases in Beijing. The results indicate that NPSO-GRNN algorithm has an advantage such as in prediction accuracy and generalization ability. The proposed decision support system approach is useful to help manager to make better Bid/no-bid decisions in uncertain construction markets, so they can take steps to prevent bid distress. PMID:27652162

  14. A dynamic novel approach for bid/no-bid decision-making.

    PubMed

    Shi, Huawang; Yin, Hang; Wei, Lianyu

    2016-01-01

    The process of bid/no-bid decision-making is su bjected to uncertainty and influence of complex criteria. This paper proposed an application of the integration of rough sets (RS) and improved general regression neural network (GRNN) based on niche particle swarm optimization (NPSO) algorithm for tendering decision making. The decision table of RS and the attribution reduction was processed by MIBARK algorithm to simply the samples of GRNN. In order to improve the general regression neural network (GRNN) network performance, the niche particle swarm optimization (NPSO) was used to optimize the spread parameter σ of GRNN neural network, then a novel Bid/no-bid decision model was established based on RS and NPSO-GRNN neural network algorithm. The applicability of the proposed model was tested using real cases in Beijing. The results indicate that NPSO-GRNN algorithm has an advantage such as in prediction accuracy and generalization ability. The proposed decision support system approach is useful to help manager to make better Bid/no-bid decisions in uncertain construction markets, so they can take steps to prevent bid distress.

  15. Variations in Decision-Making Profiles by Age and Gender: A Cluster-Analytic Approach

    PubMed Central

    Delaney, Rebecca; Strough, JoNell; Parker, Andrew M.; de Bruin, Wandi Bruine

    2015-01-01

    Using cluster-analysis, we investigated whether rational, intuitive, spontaneous, dependent, and avoidant styles of decision making (Scott & Bruce, 1995) combined to form distinct decision-making profiles that differed by age and gender. Self-report survey data were collected from 1,075 members of RAND’s American Life Panel (56.2% female, 18–93 years, Mage = 53.49). Three decision-making profiles were identified: affective/experiential, independent/self-controlled, and an interpersonally-oriented dependent profile. Older people were less likely to be in the affective/experiential profile and more likely to be in the independent/self-controlled profile. Women were less likely to be in the affective/experiential profile and more likely to be in the interpersonally-oriented dependent profile. Interpersonally-oriented profiles are discussed as an overlooked but important dimension of how people make important decisions. PMID:26005238

  16. Leadership Style, Decision Context, and the Poliheuristic Theory of Decision Making: An Experimental Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keller, Jonathan W.; Yang, Yi Edward

    2008-01-01

    The poliheuristic (PH) theory of decision making has made important contributions to our understanding of political decision making but remains silent about certain key aspects of the decision process. Specifically, PH theory contends that leaders screen out politically unacceptable options, but it provides no guidance on (1) the crucial threshold…

  17. Prioritizing groundwater remediation policies: a fuzzy compatibility analysis decision aid.

    PubMed

    Nasiri, Fuzhan; Huang, Gordon; Fuller, Norma

    2007-01-01

    The implementation of groundwater remediation strategies in contaminated areas includes not only a cost-benefit analysis and an environmental risk assessment but also another type of study called compatibility analysis. A compatibility analysis targets the interactions between remediation technologies and site characteristics, such as the types of active contaminants and their concentrations, soil composition and geological features, etc. The purpose of this analysis is to identify the most compatible remediation plan for the contaminated site. In this paper, we introduce a decision support system for the prioritization of remediation plans based on their estimated compatibility index. As this model receives data in terms of linguistic judgments and experts' opinions, we use fuzzy sets theory to deal with these uncertainties. First, we break down the concept of compatibility into the measurable factors. Then by using a multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) outline, we compute a factorial, regional and overall compatibility indicator for each plan. Finally, by comparing these generated indicators, we rank the remediation policies.

  18. Life support technology investment strategies for flight programs: An application of decision analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schlater, Nelson J.; Simonds, Charles H.; Ballin, Mark G.

    1993-01-01

    Applied research and technology development (R&TD) is often characterized by uncertainty, risk, and significant delays before tangible returns are obtained. Given the increased awareness of limitations in resources, effective R&TD today needs a method for up-front assessment of competing technologies to help guide technology investment decisions. Such an assessment approach must account for uncertainties in system performance parameters, mission requirements and architectures, and internal and external events influencing a development program. The methodology known as decision analysis has the potential to address these issues. It was evaluated by performing a case study assessment of alternative carbon dioxide removal technologies for NASA"s proposed First Lunar Outpost program. An approach was developed that accounts for the uncertainties in each technology's cost and performance parameters as well as programmatic uncertainties such as mission architecture. Life cycle cost savings relative to a baseline, adjusted for the cost of money, was used as a figure of merit to evaluate each of the alternative carbon dioxide removal technology candidates. The methodology was found to provide a consistent decision-making strategy for the develpoment of new life support technology. The case study results provided insight that was not possible from more traditional analysis approaches.

  19. Life support technology investment strategies for flight programs: An application of decision analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schlater, Nelson J.; Simonds, Charles H.; Ballin, Mark G.

    1993-01-01

    Applied research and technology development (R&TD) is often characterized by uncertainty, risk, and significant delays before tangible returns are obtained. Given the increased awareness of limitations in resources, effective R&TD today needs a method for up-front assessment of competing technologies to help guide technology investment decisions. Such an assessment approach must account for uncertainties in system performance parameters, mission requirements and architectures, and internal and external events influencing a development program. The methodology known as decision analysis has the potential to address these issues. It was evaluated by performing a case study assessment of alternative carbon dioxide removal technologies for NASA's proposed First Lunar Outpost program. An approach was developed that accounts for the uncertainties in each technology's cost and performance parameters as well as programmatic uncertainties such as mission architecture. Life cycle cost savings relative to a baseline, adjusted for the cost of money, was used as a figure of merit to evaluate each of the alternative carbon dioxide removal technology candidates. The methodology was found to provide a consistent decision-making strategy for development of new life support technology. The case study results provided insight that was not possible from more traditional analysis approaches.

  20. Visual Cluster Analysis in Support of Clinical Decision Intelligence

    PubMed Central

    Gotz, David; Sun, Jimeng; Cao, Nan; Ebadollahi, Shahram

    2011-01-01

    Electronic health records (EHRs) contain a wealth of information about patients. In addition to providing efficient and accurate records for individual patients, large databases of EHRs contain valuable information about overall patient populations. While statistical insights describing an overall population are beneficial, they are often not specific enough to use as the basis for individualized patient-centric decisions. To address this challenge, we describe an approach based on patient similarity which analyzes an EHR database to extract a cohort of patient records most similar to a specific target patient. Clusters of similar patients are then visualized to allow interactive visual refinement by human experts. Statistics are then extracted from the refined patient clusters and displayed to users. The statistical insights taken from these refined clusters provide personalized guidance for complex decisions. This paper focuses on the cluster refinement stage where an expert user must interactively (a) judge the quality and contents of automatically generated similar patient clusters, and (b) refine the clusters based on his/her expertise. We describe the DICON visualization tool which allows users to interactively view and refine multidimensional similar patient clusters. We also present results from a preliminary evaluation where two medical doctors provided feedback on our approach. PMID:22195102

  1. A National Approach to Reimbursement Decision-Making on Drugs for Rare Diseases in Canada? Insights from Across the Ponds

    PubMed Central

    Short, Hilary; Stafinski, Tania

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Regardless of the type of health system or payer, coverage decisions on drugs for rare diseases (DRDs) are challenging. While these drugs typically represent the only active treatment option for a progressive and/or life-threatening condition, evidence of clinical benefit is often limited because of small patient populations and the costs are high. Thus, decisions come with considerable uncertainty and risk. In Canada, interest in developing a pan-Canadian decision-making approach informed by international experiences exists. Objective: To develop an inventory of existing policies and processes for making coverage decisions on DRDs around the world. Methods: A systematic review of published and unpublished documents describing current policies and processes in the top 20 gross domestic product countries was conducted. Bibliographic databases, the Internet and government/health technology assessment organization websites in each country were searched. Two researchers independently extracted information and tabulated it to facilitate qualitative comparative analyses. Policy experts from each country were contacted and asked to review the information collected for accuracy and completeness. Results: Almost all countries have multiple mechanisms through which coverage for a DRD may be sought. However, they typically begin with a review that follows the same process as drugs for more common conditions (i.e., the centralized review process), although specific submission requirements could differ (e.g., no need to submit a cost-effectiveness analysis). When drugs fail to receive a positive recommendation/decision, they are reconsidered by “safety net”-type programs. Eligibility criteria vary across countries, as do the decision options, which may be applied to individual patients or patient groups. Conclusions: With few exceptions, countries have not created separate centralized review processes for DRDs. Instead, they have modified components of

  2. Soft Mathematical Aggregation in Safety Assessment and Decision Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Cooper, J. Arlin

    1999-06-10

    This paper improves on some of the limitations of conventional safety assessment and decision analysis methods. It develops a top-down mathematical method for expressing imprecise individual metrics as possibilistic or fuzzy numbers and shows how they may be combined (aggregated) into an overall metric, also portraying the inherent uncertainty. Both positively contributing and negatively contributing factors are included. Metrics are weighted according to significance of the attribute and evaluated as to contribution toward the attribute. Aggregation is performed using exponential combination of the metrics, since the accumulating effect of such factors responds less and less to additional factors. This is termed soft mathematical aggregation. Dependence among the contributing factors is accounted for by incorporating subjective metrics on overlap of the factors and by correspondingly reducing the overall contribution of these combinations to the overall aggregation. Decisions corresponding to the meaningfulness of the results are facilitated in several ways. First, the results are compared to a soft threshold provided by a sigmoid function. Second, information is provided on input ''Importance'' and ''Sensitivity,'' in order to know where to place emphasis on controls that may be necessary. Third, trends in inputs and outputs are tracked in order to add important information to the decision process. The methodology has been implemented in software.

  3. Engaging stakeholders for adaptive management using structured decision analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Irwin, Elise R.; Kathryn, D.; Kennedy, Mickett

    2009-01-01

    Adaptive management is different from other types of management in that it includes all stakeholders (versus only policy makers) in the process, uses resource optimization techniques to evaluate competing objectives, and recognizes and attempts to reduce uncertainty inherent in natural resource systems. Management actions are negotiated by stakeholders, monitored results are compared to predictions of how the system should respond, and management strategies are adjusted in a “monitor-compare-adjust” iterative routine. Many adaptive management projects fail because of the lack of stakeholder identification, engagement, and continued involvement. Primary reasons for this vary but are usually related to either stakeholders not having ownership (or representation) in decision processes or disenfranchisement of stakeholders after adaptive management begins. We present an example in which stakeholders participated fully in adaptive management of a southeastern regulated river. Structured decision analysis was used to define management objectives and stakeholder values and to determine initial flow prescriptions. The process was transparent, and the visual nature of the modeling software allowed stakeholders to see how their interests and values were represented in the decision process. The development of a stakeholder governance structure and communication mechanism has been critical to the success of the project.

  4. Dynamic sensor action selection with Bayesian decision analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kristensen, Steen; Hansen, Volker; Kondak, Konstantin

    1998-10-01

    The aim of this work is to create a framework for the dynamic planning of sensor actions for an autonomous mobile robot. The framework uses Bayesian decision analysis, i.e., a decision-theoretic method, to evaluate possible sensor actions and selecting the most appropriate ones given the available sensors and what is currently known about the state of the world. Since sensing changes the knowledge of the system and since the current state of the robot (task, position, etc.) determines what knowledge is relevant, the evaluation and selection of sensing actions is an on-going process that effectively determines the behavior of the robot. The framework has been implemented on a real mobile robot and has been proven to be able to control in real-time the sensor actions of the system. In current work we are investigating methods to reduce or automatically generate the necessary model information needed by the decision- theoretic method to select the appropriate sensor actions.

  5. Decision-Making and Problem-Solving Approaches in Pharmacy Education.

    PubMed

    Martin, Lindsay C; Donohoe, Krista L; Holdford, David A

    2016-04-25

    Domain 3 of the Center for the Advancement of Pharmacy Education (CAPE) 2013 Educational Outcomes recommends that pharmacy school curricula prepare students to be better problem solvers, but are silent on the type of problems they should be prepared to solve. We identified five basic approaches to problem solving in the curriculum at a pharmacy school: clinical, ethical, managerial, economic, and legal. These approaches were compared to determine a generic process that could be applied to all pharmacy decisions. Although there were similarities in the approaches, generic problem solving processes may not work for all problems. Successful problem solving requires identification of the problems faced and application of the right approach to the situation. We also advocate that the CAPE Outcomes make explicit the importance of different approaches to problem solving. Future pharmacists will need multiple approaches to problem solving to adapt to the complexity of health care.

  6. Managing maritime automobile terminals: an approach toward decision-support model for higher productivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beškovnik, Bojan; Twrdy, Elen

    2011-12-01

    The article describes actions and strategies to obtain higher productivity on maritime automobile terminals. The main focus is on elaboration of efficient and effective organizational structure to model and implement short-term, mid-term and long-term strategies. In addition, with an empiric approach we combined the analyses of current findings in important scientific papers and our acknowledgments in practical research of north Adriatic maritime automobile terminals. The main goal is to propose actions towards increasing system's productivity. Based on our research of the north Adriatic maritime automobile terminals and with Lambert's model an in-deep analysis of limiting factors, user's expectations and possibilities for productivity increase has been performed. Moreover, with our acknowledgments a three-level decision-support model is presented. With an adequate model implementation it is possible to efficiently develop and implement different strategies of productivity measurement and productivity increase, especially in the fields of internal transport productivity, entrance/exit truck gates operations and wagon manipulations. According to our observation a significant increase might be achieved in all three fields.

  7. Development of a decision support system for residential construction using panellised walls: approach and preliminary results.

    PubMed

    Nussbaum, Maury A; Shewchuk, John P; Kim, Sunwook; Seol, Hyang; Guo, Cheng

    2009-01-01

    There is a high prevalence of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) among residential construction workers, yet control in this industry can be difficult for a number of reasons. A decision support system (DSS) is described here to allow early assessment of both ergonomic and productivity concerns, specifically by designers. Construction using prefabricated walls (panels) is the focus of current DSS development and is based conceptually on an existing 'Safety in Construction Design' model. A stepwise description of the development process is provided, including input from end users, taxonomy development and task analysis, construction worker input, detailed laboratory-based simulations and modelling/solution approaches and implementation. Preliminary results are presented for several steps. These results suggest that construction activities using panels can be efficiently represented, that some of these activities involve exposure to high levels of WMSD risk and that several assumptions are required to allow for ease of mathematical and computational implementation of the DSS. Successful development of such tools, which allow for proactive control of exposures, is argued as having substantial potential benefit.

  8. Multi-criteria decision analysis for waste management in Saharawi refugee camps.

    PubMed

    Garfì, M; Tondelli, S; Bonoli, A

    2009-10-01

    The aim of this paper is to compare different waste management solutions in Saharawi refugee camps (Algeria) and to test the feasibility of a decision-making method developed to be applied in particular conditions in which environmental and social aspects must be considered. It is based on multi criteria analysis, and in particular on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a mathematical technique for multi-criteria decision making (Saaty, T.L., 1980. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw-Hill, New York, USA; Saaty, T.L., 1990. How to Make a Decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process. European Journal of Operational Research; Saaty, T.L., 1994. Decision Making for Leaders: The Analytic Hierarchy Process in a Complex World. RWS Publications, Pittsburgh, PA), and on participatory approach, focusing on local community's concerns. The research compares four different waste collection and management alternatives: waste collection by using three tipper trucks, disposal and burning in an open area; waste collection by using seven dumpers and disposal in a landfill; waste collection by using seven dumpers and three tipper trucks and disposal in a landfill; waste collection by using three tipper trucks and disposal in a landfill. The results show that the second and the third solutions provide better scenarios for waste management. Furthermore, the discussion of the results points out the multidisciplinarity of the approach, and the equilibrium between social, environmental and technical impacts. This is a very important aspect in a humanitarian and environmental project, confirming the appropriateness of the chosen method.

  9. Multi-criteria decision analysis for waste management in Saharawi refugee camps

    SciTech Connect

    Garfi, M. Tondelli, S.; Bonoli, A.

    2009-10-15

    The aim of this paper is to compare different waste management solutions in Saharawi refugee camps (Algeria) and to test the feasibility of a decision-making method developed to be applied in particular conditions in which environmental and social aspects must be considered. It is based on multi criteria analysis, and in particular on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a mathematical technique for multi-criteria decision making (Saaty, T.L., 1980. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw-Hill, New York, USA; Saaty, T.L., 1990. How to Make a Decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process. European Journal of Operational Research; Saaty, T.L., 1994. Decision Making for Leaders: The Analytic Hierarchy Process in a Complex World. RWS Publications, Pittsburgh, PA), and on participatory approach, focusing on local community's concerns. The research compares four different waste collection and management alternatives: waste collection by using three tipper trucks, disposal and burning in an open area; waste collection by using seven dumpers and disposal in a landfill; waste collection by using seven dumpers and three tipper trucks and disposal in a landfill; waste collection by using three tipper trucks and disposal in a landfill. The results show that the second and the third solutions provide better scenarios for waste management. Furthermore, the discussion of the results points out the multidisciplinarity of the approach, and the equilibrium between social, environmental and technical impacts. This is a very important aspect in a humanitarian and environmental project, confirming the appropriateness of the chosen method.

  10. Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, N.

    2006-12-01

    The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals

  11. Three approaches to reliability analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Palumbo, Daniel L.

    1989-01-01

    It is noted that current reliability analysis tools differ not only in their solution techniques, but also in their approach to model abstraction. The analyst must be satisfied with the constraints that are intrinsic to any combination of solution technique and model abstraction. To get a better idea of the nature of these constraints, three reliability analysis tools (HARP, ASSIST/SURE, and CAME) were used to model portions of the Integrated Airframe/Propulsion Control System architecture. When presented with the example problem, all three tools failed to produce correct results. In all cases, either the tool or the model had to be modified. It is suggested that most of the difficulty is rooted in the large model size and long computational times which are characteristic of Markov model solutions.

  12. 77 FR 38856 - An Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Decisions on Plant-Specific...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-06-29

    ... COMMISSION An Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Decisions on Plant-Specific Changes...; extension of comment period. SUMMARY: On May 17, 2012 (77 FR 29391), the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission... Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Decisions on Plant-Specific Changes to...

  13. 77 FR 29391 - An Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Decisions on Plant-Specific...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-05-17

    ... COMMISSION An Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Decisions on Plant-Specific Changes... Assessment in Risk- Informed Decisions on Plant-Specific Changes to the Licensing Basis,'' (proposed Revision 3 of Regulatory Guide 1.174); DG-1286, ``An Approach for Plant-Specific,...

  14. A transdisciplinary approach to the decision-making process in extreme prematurity

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background A wide range of dilemmas encountered in the health domain can be addressed more efficiently by a transdisciplinary approach. The complex context of extreme prematurity, which is raising important challenges for caregivers and parents, warrants such an approach. Methods In the present work, experts from various disciplinary fields, namely biomedical, epidemiology, psychology, ethics, and law, were enrolled to participate in a reflection. Gathering a group of experts could be very demanding, both in terms of time and resources, so we created a web-based discussion forum to facilitate the exchanges. The participants were mandated to solve two questions: “Which parameters should be considered before delivering survival care to a premature baby born at the threshold of viability?” and “Would it be acceptable to give different information to parents according to the sex of the baby considering that outcome differences exist between sexes?” Results The discussion forum was performed over a period of nine months and went through three phases: unidisciplinary, interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary, which required extensive discussions and the preparation of several written reports. Those steps were successfully achieved and the participants finally developed a consensual point of view regarding the initial questions. This discussion board also led to a concrete knowledge product, the publication of the popularized results as an electronic book. Conclusions We propose, with our transdisciplinary analysis, a relevant and innovative complement to existing guidelines regarding the decision-making process for premature infants born at the threshold of viability, with an emphasis on the respective responsabilities of the caregivers and the parents. PMID:25023324

  15. Divide and Conquer: A Valid Approach for Risk Assessment and Decision Making under Uncertainty for Groundwater-Related Diseases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanchez-Vila, X.; de Barros, F.; Bolster, D.; Nowak, W.

    2010-12-01

    Assessing the potential risk of hydro(geo)logical supply systems to human population is an interdisciplinary field. It relies on the expertise in fields as distant as hydrogeology, medicine, or anthropology, and needs powerful translation concepts to provide decision support and policy making. Reliable health risk estimates need to account for the uncertainties in hydrological, physiological and human behavioral parameters. We propose the use of fault trees to address the task of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) and to support related management decisions. Fault trees allow decomposing the assessment of health risk into individual manageable modules, thus tackling a complex system by a structural “Divide and Conquer” approach. The complexity within each module can be chosen individually according to data availability, parsimony, relative importance and stage of analysis. The separation in modules allows for a true inter- and multi-disciplinary approach. This presentation highlights the three novel features of our work: (1) we define failure in terms of risk being above a threshold value, whereas previous studies used auxiliary events such as exceedance of critical concentration levels, (2) we plot an integrated fault tree that handles uncertainty in both hydrological and health components in a unified way, and (3) we introduce a new form of stochastic fault tree that allows to weaken the assumption of independent subsystems that is required by a classical fault tree approach. We illustrate our concept in a simple groundwater-related setting.

  16. Composite tissue allotransplantation of the face: Decision analysis model

    PubMed Central

    Cugno, Sabrina; Sprague, Sheila; Duku, Eric; Thoma, Achilleas

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Facial composite tissue allotransplantation is a potential reconstructive option for severe facial disfigurement. The purpose of the present investigation was to use decision analysis modelling to ascertain the expected quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained with face transplantation (versus remaining in a disfigured state) in an effort to assist surgeons with the decision of whether to adopt this procedure. STUDY DESIGN: The probabilities of potential complications associated with facial allotransplantation were identified by a comprehensive review of kidney and hand transplant literature. A decision analysis tree illustrating possible health states for face allotransplantation was then constructed. Utilities were obtained from 30 participants, using the standard gamble and time trade-off measures. The utilities were then translated into QALYs, and the expected QALYs gained with transplantation were computed. RESULTS: Severe facial deformity was associated with an average of 7.34 QALYs. Allotransplantation of the face imparted an expected gain in QALYs of between 16.2 and 27.3 years. CONCLUSIONS: The current debate within the medical community surrounding facial composite tissue allotransplantation has centred on the issue of inducing a state of immunocompromise in a physically healthy individual for a non-life-saving procedure. However, the latter must be weighed against the potential social and psychological benefits that transplantation would confer. As demonstrated by a gain of 26.9 QALYs, participants’ valuation of quality of life is notably greater for face transplantation with its side effects of immunosuppression than for a state of uncompromised physical health with severe facial disfigurement. PMID:19554146

  17. An Approach for Web Service Selection Based on Confidence Level of Decision Maker

    PubMed Central

    Khezrian, Mojtaba; Jahan, Ali; Wan Kadir, Wan Mohd Nasir; Ibrahim, Suhaimi

    2014-01-01

    Web services today are among the most widely used groups for Service Oriented Architecture (SOA). Service selection is one of the most significant current discussions in SOA, which evaluates discovered services and chooses the best candidate from them. Although a majority of service selection techniques apply Quality of Service (QoS), the behaviour of QoS-based service selection leads to service selection problems in Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM). In the existing works, the confidence level of decision makers is neglected and does not consider their expertise in assessing Web services. In this paper, we employ the VIKOR (VIšekriterijumskoKOmpromisnoRangiranje) method, which is absent in the literature for service selection, but is well-known in other research. We propose a QoS-based approach that deals with service selection by applying VIKOR with improvement of features. This research determines the weights of criteria based on user preference and accounts for the confidence level of decision makers. The proposed approach is illustrated by an example in order to demonstrate and validate the model. The results of this research may facilitate service consumers to attain a more efficient decision when selecting the appropriate service. PMID:24897426

  18. Application of probabilistic and fuzzy cognitive approaches in semantic web framework for medical decision support.

    PubMed

    Papageorgiou, Elpiniki I; Huszka, Csaba; De Roo, Jos; Douali, Nassim; Jaulent, Marie-Christine; Colaert, Dirk

    2013-12-01

    This study aimed to focus on medical knowledge representation and reasoning using the probabilistic and fuzzy influence processes, implemented in the semantic web, for decision support tasks. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) and fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs), as dynamic influence graphs, were applied to handle the task of medical knowledge formalization for decision support. In order to perform reasoning on these knowledge models, a general purpose reasoning engine, EYE, with the necessary plug-ins was developed in the semantic web. The two formal approaches constitute the proposed decision support system (DSS) aiming to recognize the appropriate guidelines of a medical problem, and to propose easily understandable course of actions to guide the practitioners. The urinary tract infection (UTI) problem was selected as the proof-of-concept example to examine the proposed formalization techniques implemented in the semantic web. The medical guidelines for UTI treatment were formalized into BBN and FCM knowledge models. To assess the formal models' performance, 55 patient cases were extracted from a database and analyzed. The results showed that the suggested approaches formalized medical knowledge efficiently in the semantic web, and gave a front-end decision on antibiotics' suggestion for UTI.

  19. A Clinical Decision Support System for Integrating Tuberculosis and HIV Care in Kenya: A Human-Centered Design Approach

    PubMed Central

    Catalani, Caricia; Green, Eric; Owiti, Philip; Keny, Aggrey; Diero, Lameck; Yeung, Ada; Israelski, Dennis; Biondich, Paul

    2014-01-01

    With the aim of integrating HIV and tuberculosis care in rural Kenya, a team of researchers, clinicians, and technologists used the human-centered design approach to facilitate design, development, and deployment processes of new patient-specific TB clinical decision support system for medical providers. In Kenya, approximately 1.6 million people are living with HIV and have a 20-times higher risk of dying of tuberculosis. Although tuberculosis prevention and treatment medication is widely available, proven to save lives, and prioritized by the World Health Organization, ensuring that it reaches the most vulnerable communities remains challenging. Human-centered design, used in the fields of industrial design and information technology for decades, is an approach to improving the effectiveness and impact of innovations that has been scarcely used in the health field. Using this approach, our team followed a 3-step process, involving mixed methods assessment to (1) understand the situation through the collection and analysis of site observation sessions and key informant interviews; (2) develop a new clinical decision support system through iterative prototyping, end-user engagement, and usability testing; and, (3) implement and evaluate the system across 24 clinics in rural West Kenya. Through the application of this approach, we found that human-centered design facilitated the process of digital innovation in a complex and resource-constrained context. PMID:25170939

  20. A clinical decision support system for integrating tuberculosis and HIV care in Kenya: a human-centered design approach.

    PubMed

    Catalani, Caricia; Green, Eric; Owiti, Philip; Keny, Aggrey; Diero, Lameck; Yeung, Ada; Israelski, Dennis; Biondich, Paul

    2014-01-01

    With the aim of integrating HIV and tuberculosis care in rural Kenya, a team of researchers, clinicians, and technologists used the human-centered design approach to facilitate design, development, and deployment processes of new patient-specific TB clinical decision support system for medical providers. In Kenya, approximately 1.6 million people are living with HIV and have a 20-times higher risk of dying of tuberculosis. Although tuberculosis prevention and treatment medication is widely available, proven to save lives, and prioritized by the World Health Organization, ensuring that it reaches the most vulnerable communities remains challenging. Human-centered design, used in the fields of industrial design and information technology for decades, is an approach to improving the effectiveness and impact of innovations that has been scarcely used in the health field. Using this approach, our team followed a 3-step process, involving mixed methods assessment to (1) understand the situation through the collection and analysis of site observation sessions and key informant interviews; (2) develop a new clinical decision support system through iterative prototyping, end-user engagement, and usability testing; and, (3) implement and evaluate the system across 24 clinics in rural West Kenya. Through the application of this approach, we found that human-centered design facilitated the process of digital innovation in a complex and resource-constrained context.

  1. Statistical approach to partial equilibrium analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yougui; Stanley, H. E.

    2009-04-01

    A statistical approach to market equilibrium and efficiency analysis is proposed in this paper. One factor that governs the exchange decisions of traders in a market, named willingness price, is highlighted and constitutes the whole theory. The supply and demand functions are formulated as the distributions of corresponding willing exchange over the willingness price. The laws of supply and demand can be derived directly from these distributions. The characteristics of excess demand function are analyzed and the necessary conditions for the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium point of the market are specified. The rationing rates of buyers and sellers are introduced to describe the ratio of realized exchange to willing exchange, and their dependence on the market price is studied in the cases of shortage and surplus. The realized market surplus, which is the criterion of market efficiency, can be written as a function of the distributions of willing exchange and the rationing rates. With this approach we can strictly prove that a market is efficient in the state of equilibrium.

  2. Two hypothetical problems in radioactive waste management: a comparison of cost/benefit analysis and decision analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Watson, S.R.; Hayward, G.M.

    1982-03-01

    In particular the presentation has argued that Decision Analysis (DA) has considerable advantages over Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA), a view which may not be acceptable to practitioners of CBA. The criticism may be levelled that the authors have misinterpreted CBA in order to make their point. As mentioned above, however, the authors have taken a particular view of CBA in order to emphasize the distinction between an approach based in economics, and one based in psychology and management studies. Moreover many formal analyses of public policy today contain elements from both approaches, so that the distinction between CBA and DA may not be as clear-cut as indicated. There is however a basic difference of approach which it is hoped has been spelt out in the studies of chapters 2 and 3; the essential difference is between a device which seeks to determine what is socially best, in an objective manner, and a device to assist a group of decision-makers in clarifying their understanding of a complex decision problem.

  3. Use of decision analysis interviews to support the sustainable use of the forests in Finnish Upper Lapland.

    PubMed

    Mustajoki, Jyri; Saarikoski, Heli; Marttunen, Mika; Ahtikoski, Anssi; Hallikainen, Ville; Helle, Timo; Hyppönen, Mikko; Jokinen, Mikko; Naskali, Arto; Tuulentie, Seija; Varmola, Martti; Vatanen, Eero; Ylisirniö, Anna-Liisa

    2011-06-01

    Controversy between alternative uses of forests in Finnish Upper Lapland has been going on for decades, and in recent years it has been escalated to a serious conflict. The core of the conflict is the adverse impacts of forestry on old forests which are important grazing areas for reindeer and which are regarded as intact nature and wilderness areas. This paper describes the experiences of applying multi-criteria decision analysis interview approach on this conflict. The approach provides tools for structuring the problem and preferences of the stakeholders as well as for analyzing the effects of different alternatives in a common framework. We focus on the practical experiences gained from the application of this approach in this context. Multi-criteria decision analysis was found to be a useful approach to evaluate the economic, ecological and cultural aspects of this intense conflict. The obtained experiences also support the view that the approach works best when tightly integrated into the planning process.

  4. Analysis of obstetricians' decision making on CTG recordings.

    PubMed

    Spilka, Jiří; Chudáček, Václav; Janků, Petr; Hruban, Lukáš; Burša, Miroslav; Huptych, Michal; Zach, Lukáš; Lhotská, Lenka

    2014-10-01

    Interpretation of cardiotocogram (CTG) is a difficult task since its evaluation is complicated by a great inter- and intra-individual variability. Previous studies have predominantly analyzed clinicians' agreement on CTG evaluation based on quantitative measures (e.g. kappa coefficient) that do not offer any insight into clinical decision making. In this paper we aim to examine the agreement on evaluation in detail and provide data-driven analysis of clinical evaluation. For this study, nine obstetricians provided clinical evaluation of 634 CTG recordings (each ca. 60min long). We studied the agreement on evaluation and its dependence on the increasing number of clinicians involved in the final decision. We showed that despite of large number of clinicians the agreement on CTG evaluations is difficult to reach. The main reason is inherent inter- and intra-observer variability of CTG evaluation. Latent class model provides better and more natural way to aggregate the CTG evaluation than the majority voting especially for larger number of clinicians. Significant improvement was reached in particular for the pathological evaluation - giving a new insight into the process of CTG evaluation. Further, the analysis of latent class model revealed that clinicians unconsciously use four classes when evaluating CTG recordings, despite the fact that the clinical evaluation was based on FIGO guidelines where three classes are defined.

  5. Assessing the value of healthcare interventions using multi-criteria decision analysis: a review of the literature.

    PubMed

    Marsh, Kevin; Lanitis, Tereza; Neasham, David; Orfanos, Panagiotis; Caro, Jaime

    2014-04-01

    The objective of this study is to support those undertaking a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) by reviewing the approaches adopted in healthcare MCDAs to date, how these varied with the objective of the study, and the lessons learned from this experience. Searches of EMBASE and MEDLINE identified 40 studies that provided 41 examples of MCDA in healthcare. Data were extracted on the objective of the study, methods employed, and decision makers' and study authors' reflections on the advantages and disadvantages of the methods. The recent interest in MCDA in healthcare is mirrored in an increase in the application of MCDA to evaluate healthcare interventions. Of the studies identified, the first was published in 1990, but more than half were published since 2011. They were undertaken in 18 different countries, and were designed to support investment (coverage and reimbursement), authorization, prescription, and research funding allocation decisions. Many intervention types were assessed: pharmaceuticals, public health interventions, screening, surgical interventions, and devices. Most used the value measurement approach and scored performance using predefined scales. Beyond these similarities, a diversity of different approaches were adopted, with only limited correspondence between the approach and the type of decision or product. Decision makers consulted as part of these studies, as well as the authors of the studies are positive about the potential of MCDA to improve decision making. Further work is required, however, to develop guidance for those undertaking MCDA.

  6. A multicriteria decision analysis model and risk assessment framework for carbon capture and storage.

    PubMed

    Humphries Choptiany, John Michael; Pelot, Ronald

    2014-09-01

    Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been applied to various energy problems to incorporate a variety of qualitative and quantitative criteria, usually spanning environmental, social, engineering, and economic fields. MCDA and associated methods such as life-cycle assessments and cost-benefit analysis can also include risk analysis to address uncertainties in criteria estimates. One technology now being assessed to help mitigate climate change is carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS is a new process that captures CO2 emissions from fossil-fueled power plants and injects them into geological reservoirs for storage. It presents a unique challenge to decisionmakers (DMs) due to its technical complexity, range of environmental, social, and economic impacts, variety of stakeholders, and long time spans. The authors have developed a risk assessment model using a MCDA approach for CCS decisions such as selecting between CO2 storage locations and choosing among different mitigation actions for reducing risks. The model includes uncertainty measures for several factors, utility curve representations of all variables, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis. This article uses a CCS scenario example to demonstrate the development and application of the model based on data derived from published articles and publicly available sources. The model allows high-level DMs to better understand project risks and the tradeoffs inherent in modern, complex energy decisions. PMID:24772997

  7. A multicriteria decision analysis model and risk assessment framework for carbon capture and storage.

    PubMed

    Humphries Choptiany, John Michael; Pelot, Ronald

    2014-09-01

    Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been applied to various energy problems to incorporate a variety of qualitative and quantitative criteria, usually spanning environmental, social, engineering, and economic fields. MCDA and associated methods such as life-cycle assessments and cost-benefit analysis can also include risk analysis to address uncertainties in criteria estimates. One technology now being assessed to help mitigate climate change is carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS is a new process that captures CO2 emissions from fossil-fueled power plants and injects them into geological reservoirs for storage. It presents a unique challenge to decisionmakers (DMs) due to its technical complexity, range of environmental, social, and economic impacts, variety of stakeholders, and long time spans. The authors have developed a risk assessment model using a MCDA approach for CCS decisions such as selecting between CO2 storage locations and choosing among different mitigation actions for reducing risks. The model includes uncertainty measures for several factors, utility curve representations of all variables, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis. This article uses a CCS scenario example to demonstrate the development and application of the model based on data derived from published articles and publicly available sources. The model allows high-level DMs to better understand project risks and the tradeoffs inherent in modern, complex energy decisions.

  8. Spaceborne power systems preference analyses. Volume 2: Decision analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, J. H.; Feinberg, A.; Miles, R. F., Jr.

    1985-01-01

    Sixteen alternative spaceborne nuclear power system concepts were ranked using multiattribute decision analysis. The purpose of the ranking was to identify promising concepts for further technology development and the issues associated with such development. Four groups were interviewed to obtain preference. The four groups were: safety, systems definition and design, technology assessment, and mission analysis. The highest ranked systems were the heat-pipe thermoelectric systems, heat-pipe Stirling, in-core thermionic, and liquid-metal thermoelectric systems. The next group contained the liquid-metal Stirling, heat-pipe Alkali Metal Thermoelectric Converter (AMTEC), heat-pipe Brayton, liquid-metal out-of-core thermionic, and heat-pipe Rankine systems. The least preferred systems were the liquid-metal AMTEC, heat-pipe thermophotovoltaic, liquid-metal Brayton and Rankine, and gas-cooled Brayton. The three nonheat-pipe technologies selected matched the top three nonheat-pipe systems ranked by this study.

  9. Seismic slope-performance analysis: from hazard map to decision support system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miles, Scott B.; Keefer, David K.; Ho, Carlton L.

    1999-01-01

    In response to the growing recognition of engineers and decision-makers of the regional effects of earthquake-induced landslides, this paper presents a general approach to conducting seismic landslide zonation, based on the popular Newmark's sliding block analogy for modeling coherent landslides. Four existing models based on the sliding block analogy are compared. The comparison shows that the models forecast notably different levels of slope performance. Considering this discrepancy along with the limitations of static maps as a decision tool, a spatial decision support system (SDSS) for seismic landslide analysis is proposed, which will support investigations over multiple scales for any number of earthquake scenarios and input conditions. Most importantly, the SDSS will allow use of any seismic landslide analysis model and zonation approach. Developments associated with the SDSS will produce an object-oriented model for encapsulating spatial data, an object-oriented specification to allow construction of models using modular objects, and a direct-manipulation, dynamic user-interface that adapts to the particular seismic landslide model configuration.

  10. Applications of decision analysis and related techniques to industrial engineering problems at KSC

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Evans, Gerald W.

    1995-01-01

    This report provides: (1) a discussion of the origination of decision analysis problems (well-structured problems) from ill-structured problems; (2) a review of the various methodologies and software packages for decision analysis and related problem areas; (3) a discussion of how the characteristics of a decision analysis problem affect the choice of modeling methodologies, thus providing a guide as to when to choose a particular methodology; and (4) examples of applications of decision analysis to particular problems encountered by the IE Group at KSC. With respect to the specific applications at KSC, particular emphasis is placed on the use of the Demos software package (Lumina Decision Systems, 1993).

  11. A Behavioural Approach to Understanding Semi-Subsistence Farmers' Technology Adoption Decisions: The Case of Improved Paddy-Prawn System in Indonesia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sambodo, Leonardo A. A. T.; Nuthall, Peter L.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: This study traced the origins of subsistence Farmers' technology adoption attitudes and extracted the critical elements in their decision making systems. Design/Methodology/Approach: The analysis was structured using a model based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB). The role of a "bargaining process" was particularly explored to…

  12. Ignorance- versus Evidence-Based Decision Making: A Decision Time Analysis of the Recognition Heuristic

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hilbig, Benjamin E.; Pohl, Rudiger F.

    2009-01-01

    According to part of the adaptive toolbox notion of decision making known as the recognition heuristic (RH), the decision process in comparative judgments--and its duration--is determined by whether recognition discriminates between objects. By contrast, some recently proposed alternative models predict that choices largely depend on the amount of…

  13. Output orientation in R and D: A better approach?. [decision making in R and D

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Black, G.

    1974-01-01

    Research and development management is examined as it might be performed under an output-oriented approach in which the company's needs for innovations in various product and production areas were identified. It is shown that a company's R and D program is the aggregate of its needs in various areas of its business. The planning, programming and budgeting approach is applied to R and D. The state of theory on R and D decision making in economics is summarized. Abstracts of articles concerning R and D in industry are included.

  14. What Satisfies Students? Mining Student-Opinion Data with Regression and Decision-Tree Analysis. AIR 2002 Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomas, Emily H.; Galambos, Nora

    To investigate how students' characteristics and experiences affect satisfaction, this study used regression and decision-tree analysis with the CHAID algorithm to analyze student opinion data from a sample of 1,783 college students. A data-mining approach identifies the specific aspects of students' university experience that most influence three…

  15. Selecting essential information for biosurveillance--a multi-criteria decision analysis.

    PubMed

    Generous, Nicholas; Margevicius, Kristen J; Taylor-McCabe, Kirsten J; Brown, Mac; Daniel, W Brent; Castro, Lauren; Hengartner, Andrea; Deshpande, Alina

    2014-01-01

    The National Strategy for Biosurveillance defines biosurveillance as "the process of gathering, integrating, interpreting, and communicating essential information related to all-hazards threats or disease activity affecting human, animal, or plant health to achieve early detection and warning, contribute to overall situational awareness of the health aspects of an incident, and to enable better decision-making at all levels." However, the strategy does not specify how "essential information" is to be identified and integrated into the current biosurveillance enterprise, or what the metrics qualify information as being "essential". The question of data stream identification and selection requires a structured methodology that can systematically evaluate the tradeoffs between the many criteria that need to be taken in account. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a type of multi-criteria decision analysis, can provide a well-defined, structured approach that can offer solutions to this problem. While the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theoryas a practical method to apply formal scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, multi-criteria problems has been demonstrated in a variety of fields, this method has never been applied to decision support in biosurveillance.We have developed a formalized decision support analytic framework that can facilitate identification of "essential information" for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and we offer this framework to the global BSV community as a tool for optimizing the BSV enterprise. To demonstrate utility, we applied the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an integrated global infectious disease surveillance system.

  16. Selecting Essential Information for Biosurveillance—A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Generous, Nicholas; Margevicius, Kristen J.; Taylor-McCabe, Kirsten J.; Brown, Mac; Daniel, W. Brent; Castro, Lauren; Hengartner, Andrea; Deshpande, Alina

    2014-01-01

    The National Strategy for Biosurveillancedefines biosurveillance as “the process of gathering, integrating, interpreting, and communicating essential information related to all-hazards threats or disease activity affecting human, animal, or plant health to achieve early detection and warning, contribute to overall situational awareness of the health aspects of an incident, and to enable better decision-making at all levels.” However, the strategy does not specify how “essential information” is to be identified and integrated into the current biosurveillance enterprise, or what the metrics qualify information as being “essential”. Thequestion of data stream identification and selection requires a structured methodology that can systematically evaluate the tradeoffs between the many criteria that need to be taken in account. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a type of multi-criteria decision analysis, can provide a well-defined, structured approach that can offer solutions to this problem. While the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theoryas a practical method to apply formal scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, multi-criteria problems has been demonstrated in a variety of fields, this method has never been applied to decision support in biosurveillance.We have developed a formalized decision support analytic framework that can facilitate identification of “essential information” for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and we offer this framework to the global BSV community as a tool for optimizing the BSV enterprise. To demonstrate utility, we applied the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an integrated global infectious disease surveillance system. PMID:24489748

  17. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making--Emerging Good Practices: Report 2 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

    PubMed

    Marsh, Kevin; IJzerman, Maarten; Thokala, Praveen; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kaló, Zoltán; Lönngren, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; Devlin, Nancy

    2016-01-01

    Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making. A set of techniques, known under the collective heading, multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), are useful for this purpose. In 2014, ISPOR established an Emerging Good Practices Task Force. The task force's first report defined MCDA, provided examples of its use in health care, described the key steps, and provided an overview of the principal methods of MCDA. This second task force report provides emerging good-practice guidance on the implementation of MCDA to support health care decisions. The report includes: a checklist to support the design, implementation and review of an MCDA; guidance to support the implementation of the checklist; the order in which the steps should be implemented; illustrates how to incorporate budget constraints into an MCDA; provides an overview of the skills and resources, including available software, required to implement MCDA; and future research directions.

  18. Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making--Emerging Good Practices: Report 2 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

    PubMed

    Marsh, Kevin; IJzerman, Maarten; Thokala, Praveen; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kaló, Zoltán; Lönngren, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; Devlin, Nancy

    2016-01-01

    Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making. A set of techniques, known under the collective heading, multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), are useful for this purpose. In 2014, ISPOR established an Emerging Good Practices Task Force. The task force's first report defined MCDA, provided examples of its use in health care, described the key steps, and provided an overview of the principal methods of MCDA. This second task force report provides emerging good-practice guidance on the implementation of MCDA to support health care decisions. The report includes: a checklist to support the design, implementation and review of an MCDA; guidance to support the implementation of the checklist; the order in which the steps should be implemented; illustrates how to incorporate budget constraints into an MCDA; provides an overview of the skills and resources, including available software, required to implement MCDA; and future research directions. PMID:27021745

  19. A Decision Analysis Tool for Climate Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Parish, Esther S; Nugent, Philip J

    2016-01-01

    Climate change related extreme events (such as flooding, storms, and drought) are already impacting millions of people globally at a cost of billions of dollars annually. Hence, there are urgent needs for urban areas to develop adaptation strategies that will alleviate the impacts of these extreme events. However, lack of appropriate decision support tools that match local applications is limiting local planning efforts. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis and optimization system with customized decision support modules built on geographic information system (GIS) platform to bridge this gap. This platform is called Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT). For all Urban-CAT models, we divide a city into a grid with tens of thousands of cells; then compute a list of metrics for each cell from the GIS data. These metrics are used as independent variables to predict climate impacts, compute vulnerability score, and evaluate adaptation options. Overall, the Urban-CAT system has three layers: data layer (that contains spatial data, socio-economic and environmental data, and analytic data), middle layer (that handles data processing, model management, and GIS operation), and application layer (that provides climate impacts forecast, adaptation optimization, and site evaluation). The Urban-CAT platform can guide city and county governments in identifying and planning for effective climate change adaptation strategies.

  20. A decision-directed approach for prioritizing research into the impact of nanomaterials on the environment and human health

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Linkov, Igor; Bates, Matthew E.; Canis, Laure J.; Seager, Thomas P.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.

    2011-12-01

    The emergence of nanotechnology has coincided with an increased recognition of the need for new approaches to understand and manage the impact of emerging technologies on the environment and human health. Important elements in these new approaches include life-cycle thinking, public participation and adaptive management of the risks associated with emerging technologies and new materials. However, there is a clear need to develop a framework for linking research on the risks associated with nanotechnology to the decision-making needs of manufacturers, regulators, consumers and other stakeholder groups. Given the very high uncertainties associated with nanomaterials and their impact on the environment and human health, research resources should be directed towards creating the knowledge that is most meaningful to these groups. Here, we present a model (based on multi-criteria decision analysis and a value of information approach) for prioritizing research strategies in a way that is responsive to the recommendations of recent reports on the management of the risk and impact of nanomaterials on the environment and human health.

  1. Systems Analysis - a new paradigm and decision support tools for the water framework directive

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruen, M.

    2008-05-01

    In the early days of Systems Analysis the focus was on providing tools for optimisation, modelling and simulation for use by experts. Now there is a recognition of the need to develop and disseminate tools to assist in making decisions, negotiating compromises and communicating preferences that can easily be used by stakeholders without the need for specialist training. The Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires public participation and thus provides a strong incentive for progress in this direction. This paper places the new paradigm in the context of the classical one and discusses some of the new approaches which can be used in the implementation of the WFD. These include multi-criteria decision support methods suitable for environmental problems, adaptive management, cognitive mapping, social learning and cooperative design and group decision-making. Concordance methods (such as ELECTRE) and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) are identified as multi-criteria methods that can be readily integrated into Decision Support Systems (DSS) that deal with complex environmental issues with very many criteria, some of which are qualitative. The expanding use of the new paradigm provides an opportunity to observe and learn from the interaction of stakeholders with the new technology and to assess its effectiveness.

  2. Systems analysis - a new paradigm and decision support tools for the water framework directive

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruen, M.

    2007-06-01

    In the early days of Systems Analysis the focus was on providing tools for optimisation, modelling and simulation for use by experts. Now there is a recognition of the need to develop and disseminate tools to assist in making decisions, negotiating compromises and communicating preferences that can easily be used by stakeholders without the need for specialist training. The Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires public participation and thus provides a strong incentive for progress in this direction. This paper places the new paradigm in the context of the classical one and discusses some of the new approaches which can be used in the implementation of the WFD. These include multi-criteria decision support methods suitable for environmental problems, adaptive management, cognitive mapping, social learning and cooperative design and group decision-making. Concordance methods (such as ELECTRE) and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) are identified as multi-criteria methods that can be readily integrated into Decision Support Systems (DSS) that deal with complex environmental issues with very many criteria, some of which are qualitative. The expanding use of the new paradigm provides an opportunity to observe and learn from the interaction of stakeholders with the new technology and to assess its effectiveness. This is best done by trained sociologists fully integrated into the processes. The WINCOMS research project is an example applied to the implementation of the WFD in Ireland.

  3. Trustworthy patient decision aids: a qualitative analysis addressing the risk of competing interests

    PubMed Central

    Elwyn, Glyn; Dannenberg, Michelle; Blaine, Arianna; Poddar, Urbashi; Durand, Marie-Anne

    2016-01-01

    Objective Our aim in this study was to examine the competing interest policies and procedures of organisations who develop and maintain patient decision aids. Design Descriptive and thematic analysis of data collected from a cross-sectional survey of patient decision aid developer's competing interest policies and disclosure forms. Results We contacted 25 organisations likely to meet the inclusion criteria. 12 eligible organisations provided data. 11 organisations did not reply and 2 declined to participate. Most patient decision aid developers recognise the need to consider the issue of competing interests. Assessment processes vary widely and, for the most part, are insufficiently robust to minimise the risk of competing interests. Only half of the 12 organisations had competing interest policies. Some considered disclosure to be sufficient, while others imposed differing levels of exclusion. Conclusions Patient decision aid developers do not have a consistent approach to managing competing interests. Some have developed policies and procedures, while others pay no attention to the issue. As is the case for clinical practice guidelines, increasing attention will need to be given to how the competing interests of contributors of evidence-based publications may influence materials, especially if they are designed for patient use. PMID:27612542

  4. School Board Decision Making: An Analysis of the Process

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crum, Karen S.

    2007-01-01

    The goal of this study was to analyze the characteristics in the school board decision-making process and to discover whether school board members are aware of the characteristics surrounding the school board's decision-making process. Specifically, this study examines the decision-making process of a school board in Virginia, and it provides…

  5. A Speedy Cardiovascular Diseases Classifier Using Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Wah Ching; Hung, Faan Hei; Tsang, Kim Fung; Tung, Hoi Ching; Lau, Wing Hong; Rakocevic, Veselin; Lai, Loi Lei

    2015-01-01

    Each year, some 30 percent of global deaths are caused by cardiovascular diseases. This figure is worsening due to both the increasing elderly population and severe shortages of medical personnel. The development of a cardiovascular diseases classifier (CDC) for auto-diagnosis will help address solve the problem. Former CDCs did not achieve quick evaluation of cardiovascular diseases. In this letter, a new CDC to achieve speedy detection is investigated. This investigation incorporates the analytic hierarchy process (AHP)-based multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to develop feature vectors using a Support Vector Machine. The MCDA facilitates the efficient assignment of appropriate weightings to potential patients, thus scaling down the number of features. Since the new CDC will only adopt the most meaningful features for discrimination between healthy persons versus cardiovascular disease patients, a speedy detection of cardiovascular diseases has been successfully implemented. PMID:25587978

  6. Transmission Bearing Damage Detection Using Decision Fusion Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dempsey, Paula J.; Lewicki, David G.; Decker, Harry J.

    2004-01-01

    A diagnostic tool was developed for detecting fatigue damage to rolling element bearings in an OH-58 main rotor transmission. Two different monitoring technologies, oil debris analysis and vibration, were integrated using data fusion into a health monitoring system for detecting bearing surface fatigue pitting damage. This integrated system showed improved detection and decision-making capabilities as compared to using individual monitoring technologies. This diagnostic tool was evaluated by collecting vibration and oil debris data from tests performed in the NASA Glenn 500 hp Helicopter Transmission Test Stand. Data was collected during experiments performed in this test rig when two unanticipated bearing failures occurred. Results show that combining the vibration and oil debris measurement technologies improves the detection of pitting damage on spiral bevel gears duplex ball bearings and spiral bevel pinion triplex ball bearings in a main rotor transmission.

  7. Climate policy decisions require policy-based lifecycle analysis.

    PubMed

    Bento, Antonio M; Klotz, Richard

    2014-05-20

    Lifecycle analysis (LCA) metrics of greenhouse gas emissions are increasingly being used to select technologies supported by climate policy. However, LCAs typically evaluate the emissions associated with a technology or product, not the impacts of policies. Here, we show that policies supporting the same technology can lead to dramatically different emissions impacts per unit of technology added, due to multimarket responses to the policy. Using a policy-based consequential LCA, we find that the lifecycle emissions impacts of four US biofuel policies range from a reduction of 16.1 gCO2e to an increase of 24.0 gCO2e per MJ corn ethanol added by the policy. The differences between these results and representative technology-based LCA measures, which do not account for the policy instrument driving the expansion in the technology, illustrate the need for policy-based LCA measures when informing policy decision making.

  8. Spiral Bevel Gear Damage Detection Using Decision Fusion Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dempsey, Paula J.; Handschuh, Robert F.; Afjeh, Abdollah A.

    2002-01-01

    A diagnostic tool for detecting damage to spiral bevel gears was developed. Two different monitoring technologies, oil debris analysis and vibration, were integrated using data fusion into a health monitoring system for detecting surface fatigue pitting damage on gears. This integrated system showed improved detection and decision-making capabilities as compared to using individual monitoring technologies. This diagnostic tool was evaluated by collecting vibration and oil debris data from fatigue tests performed in the NASA Glenn Spiral Bevel Gear Fatigue Rigs. Data was collected during experiments performed in this test rig when pitting damage occurred. Results show that combining the vibration and oil debris measurement technologies improves the detection of pitting damage on spiral bevel gears.

  9. The Potential for Meta-Analysis to Support Decision Analysis in Ecology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mengersen, Kerrie; MacNeil, M. Aaron; Caley, M. Julian

    2015-01-01

    Meta-analysis and decision analysis are underpinned by well-developed methods that are commonly applied to a variety of problems and disciplines. While these two fields have been closely linked in some disciplines such as medicine, comparatively little attention has been paid to the potential benefits of linking them in ecology, despite reasonable…

  10. An event-based approach for examining the effects of wildland fire decisions on communities.

    PubMed

    McCool, Stephen F; Burchfield, James A; Williams, Daniel R; Carroll, Matthew S

    2006-04-01

    Public concern over the consequences of forest fire to wildland interface communities has led to increased resources devoted to fire suppression, fuel treatment, and management of fire events. The social consequences of the decisions involved in these and other fire-related actions are largely unknown, except in an anecdotal sense, but do occur at a variety of temporal and social organizational scales. These consequences are not limited to the fire event itself. Preparation for the possibility of a fire, actions that suppression agencies take during a fire, and postfire decisions all have consequences, if unknown currently. This article presents an "event-based" approach that can be useful for constructing and systematic discussion about the consequences of wildland fire to human communities. For each of the three major periods within this approach, agencies, communities, and individuals make decisions and take actions that have consequences. The article presents an integrated, temporally based process for examining these consequences, which is similar to others developed in the natural hazards and disaster management literature.

  11. Harnessing ecosystem models and multi-criteria decision analysis for the support of forest management.

    PubMed

    Wolfslehner, Bernhard; Seidl, Rupert

    2010-12-01

    The decision-making environment in forest management (FM) has changed drastically during the last decades. Forest management planning is facing increasing complexity due to a widening portfolio of forest goods and services, a societal demand for a rational, transparent decision process and rising uncertainties concerning future environmental conditions (e.g., climate change). Methodological responses to these challenges include an intensified use of ecosystem models to provide an enriched, quantitative information base for FM planning. Furthermore, multi-criteria methods are increasingly used to amalgamate information, preferences, expert judgments and value expressions, in support of the participatory and communicative dimensions of modern forestry. Although the potential of combining these two approaches has been demonstrated in a number of studies, methodological aspects in interfacing forest ecosystem models (FEM) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are scarcely addressed explicitly. In this contribution we review the state of the art in FEM and MCDA in the context of FM planning and highlight some of the crucial issues when combining ecosystem and preference modeling. We discuss issues and requirements in selecting approaches suitable for supporting FM planning problems from the growing body of FEM and MCDA concepts. We furthermore identify two major challenges in a harmonized application of FEM-MCDA: (i) the design and implementation of an indicator-based analysis framework capturing ecological and social aspects and their interactions relevant for the decision process, and (ii) holistic information management that supports consistent use of different information sources, provides meta-information as well as information on uncertainties throughout the planning process.

  12. Harnessing Ecosystem Models and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the Support of Forest Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolfslehner, Bernhard; Seidl, Rupert

    2010-12-01

    The decision-making environment in forest management (FM) has changed drastically during the last decades. Forest management planning is facing increasing complexity due to a widening portfolio of forest goods and services, a societal demand for a rational, transparent decision process and rising uncertainties concerning future environmental conditions (e.g., climate change). Methodological responses to these challenges include an intensified use of ecosystem models to provide an enriched, quantitative information base for FM planning. Furthermore, multi-criteria methods are increasingly used to amalgamate information, preferences, expert judgments and value expressions, in support of the participatory and communicative dimensions of modern forestry. Although the potential of combining these two approaches has been demonstrated in a number of studies, methodological aspects in interfacing forest ecosystem models (FEM) and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are scarcely addressed explicitly. In this contribution we review the state of the art in FEM and MCDA in the context of FM planning and highlight some of the crucial issues when combining ecosystem and preference modeling. We discuss issues and requirements in selecting approaches suitable for supporting FM planning problems from the growing body of FEM and MCDA concepts. We furthermore identify two major challenges in a harmonized application of FEM-MCDA: (i) the design and implementation of an indicator-based analysis framework capturing ecological and social aspects and their interactions relevant for the decision process, and (ii) holistic information management that supports consistent use of different information sources, provides meta-information as well as information on uncertainties throughout the planning process.

  13. Decision-level fusion approach to face recognition with multiple cameras

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeom, Seokwon

    2014-05-01

    Face classification of multiple cameras has wide applications in surveillance. In this paper, the efficacy of a multi-frame decision-level fusion scheme for face classification based on the photon-counting linear discriminant analysis is investigated. The photon-counting linear discriminant analysis method is able to realize Fisher's criterion without preprocessing for dimensionality reduction. The decision-level fusion scheme is comprised of three stages: score normalization, score validation, and score combination. After normalization, the candidate scores are selected and combined by means of a score validation process and a fusion rule, respectively, in order to generate a final score. In the experiments, out-of-focus and motion blurs are rendered on test images simulating harsh conditions.

  14. Validation of decision-making models and analysis of decision variables in the rat basal ganglia.

    PubMed

    Ito, Makoto; Doya, Kenji

    2009-08-01

    Reinforcement learning theory plays a key role in understanding the behavioral and neural mechanisms of choice behavior in animals and humans. Especially, intermediate variables of learning models estimated from behavioral data, such as the expectation of reward for each candidate choice (action value), have been used in searches for the neural correlates of computational elements in learning and decision making. The aims of the present study are as follows: (1) to test which computational model best captures the choice learning process in animals and (2) to elucidate how action values are represented in different parts of the corticobasal ganglia circuit. We compared different behavioral learning algorithms to predict the choice sequences generated by rats during a free-choice task and analyzed associated neural activity in the nucleus accumbens (NAc) and ventral pallidum (VP). The major findings of this study were as follows: (1) modified versions of an action-value learning model captured a variety of choice strategies of rats, including win-stay-lose-switch and persevering behavior, and predicted rats' choice sequences better than the best multistep Markov model; and (2) information about action values and future actions was coded in both the NAc and VP, but was less dominant than information about trial types, selected actions, and reward outcome. The results of our model-based analysis suggest that the primary role of the NAc and VP is to monitor information important for updating choice behaviors. Information represented in the NAc and VP might contribute to a choice mechanism that is situated elsewhere.

  15. Constructing Clinical Decision Support Systems for Adverse Drug Event Prevention: A Knowledge-based Approach.

    PubMed

    Koutkias, Vassilis; Kilintzis, Vassilis; Stalidis, George; Lazou, Katerina; Collyda, Chrysa; Chazard, Emmanuel; McNair, Peter; Beuscart, Regis; Maglaveras, Nicos

    2010-11-13

    A knowledge-based approach is proposed that is employed for the construction of a framework suitable for the management and effective use of knowledge on Adverse Drug Event (ADE) prevention. The framework has as its core part a Knowledge Base (KB) comprised of rule-based knowledge sources, that is accompanied by the necessary inference and query mechanisms to provide healthcare professionals and patients with decision support services in clinical practice, in terms of alerts and recommendations on preventable ADEs. The relevant Knowledge Based System (KBS) is developed in the context of the EU-funded research project PSIP (Patient Safety through Intelligent Procedures in Medication). In the current paper, we present the foundations of the framework, its knowledge model and KB structure, as well as recent progress as regards the population of the KB, the implementation of the KBS, and results on the KBS verification in decision support operation.

  16. A simulator-based approach to training in aeronautical decision making.

    PubMed

    Connolly, T J; Blackwell, B B; Lester, L F

    1989-01-01

    The effectiveness of a simulator-based approach to training pilot skills in risk assessment and decision making was evaluated in a sample of pilots enrolled in a university aviation science program. The 16 experimental group subjects received 4 hours (h) of classroom instruction designed to enhance pilot judgment skills, followed by 4 simulated cross-country flights during which several critical inflight events occurred. Subjects in the control group received classroom instruction in basic instrument flying, followed by simulator sessions emphasizing instrument flight. Measures of pilot judgment were obtained on all subjects before and after the training, and subjects in the experimental judgment-trained group performed significantly better on the posttraining simulation than did control group subjects. The findings suggest that significant gains in pilot decision-making skill can be obtained through the use of the judgment training materials along with simulator practice.

  17. Patient electronic health data-driven approach to clinical decision support.

    PubMed

    Mane, Ketan K; Bizon, Chris; Owen, Phillips; Gersing, Ken; Mostafa, Javed; Schmitt, Charles

    2011-10-01

    This article presents a novel visual analytics (VA)-based clinical decision support (CDS) tool prototype that was designed as a collaborative work between Renaissance Computing Institute and Duke University. Using Major Depressive Disorder data from MindLinc electronic health record system at Duke, the CDS tool shows an approach to leverage data from comparative population (patients with similar medical profile) to enhance a clinicians' decision making process at the point of care. The initial work is being extended in collaboration with the University of North Carolina CTSA to address the key challenges of CDS, as well as to show the use of VA to derive insight from large volumes of Electronic Health Record patient data.

  18. Decision tree approach for classification of remotely sensed satellite data using open source support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, Richa; Ghosh, Aniruddha; Joshi, P. K.

    2013-10-01

    In this study, an attempt has been made to develop a decision tree classification (DTC) algorithm for classification of remotely sensed satellite data (Landsat TM) using open source support. The decision tree is constructed by recursively partitioning the spectral distribution of the training dataset using WEKA, open source data mining software. The classified image is compared with the image classified using classical ISODATA clustering and Maximum Likelihood Classifier (MLC) algorithms. Classification result based on DTC method provided better visual depiction than results produced by ISODATA clustering or by MLC algorithms. The overall accuracy was found to be 90% (kappa = 0.88) using the DTC, 76.67% (kappa = 0.72) using the Maximum Likelihood and 57.5% (kappa = 0.49) using ISODATA clustering method. Based on the overall accuracy and kappa statistics, DTC was found to be more preferred classification approach than others.

  19. Different approaches for centralized and decentralized water system management in multiple decision makers' problems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anghileri, D.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.

    2012-04-01

    There is a general agreement that one of the most challenging issues related to water system management is the presence of many and often conflicting interests as well as the presence of several and independent decision makers. The traditional approach to multi-objective water systems management is a centralized management, in which an ideal central regulator coordinates the operation of the whole system, exploiting all the available information and balancing all the operating objectives. Although this approach allows to obtain Pareto-optimal solutions representing the maximum achievable benefit, it is based on assumptions which strongly limits its application in real world contexts: 1) top-down management, 2) existence of a central regulation institution, 3) complete information exchange within the system, 4) perfect economic efficiency. A bottom-up decentralized approach seems therefore to be more suitable for real case applications since different reservoir operators may maintain their independence. In this work we tested the consequences of a change in the water management approach moving from a centralized toward a decentralized one. In particular we compared three different cases: the centralized management approach, the independent management approach where each reservoir operator takes the daily release decision maximizing (or minimizing) his operating objective independently from each other, and an intermediate approach, leading to the Nash equilibrium of the associated game, where different reservoir operators try to model the behaviours of the other operators. The three approaches are demonstrated using a test case-study composed of two reservoirs regulated for the minimization of flooding in different locations. The operating policies are computed by solving one single multi-objective optimal control problem, in the centralized management approach; multiple single-objective optimization problems, i.e. one for each operator, in the independent case

  20. An MDO augmented value-based systems engineering approach to holistic design decision-making: A satellite system case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kannan, Hanumanthrao

    The design of large scale complex engineered systems (LSCES) involves hundreds or thousands of designers making decisions at different levels of an organizational hierarchy. Traditionally, these LSCES are designed using systems engineering methods and processes, where the preferences of the stakeholder are flowed down the hierarchy using requirements that act as surrogates for preference. Current processes do not provide a system level guidance to subsystem designers. Value-Driven Design (VDD) offers a new perspective on complex system design, where the value preferences of the stakeholder are communicated directly through a decomposable value function, thereby providing a mechanism for improved system consistency. Requirements-based systems engineering approaches do not offer a mathematically rigorous way to capture the couplings present in the system. Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) was specifically developed to address couplings in both analysis and optimization thereby enabling physics-based consistency. MDO uses an objective function with constraints but does not provide a way to formulate the objective function. Current systems engineering processes do not provide a mathematically sound way to make design decisions when designers are faced with uncertainties. Designers tend to choose designs based on their preferences towards risky/uncertain designs, and past research has shown that there needs to be a consistency in risk preferences to enable design decisions that are consistent with stakeholder's desires. This research exploits the complimentary nature of VDD, MDO and Decision Analysis (DA) to enable consistency in communication of system preferences, consistency in physics and consistency in risk preferences. The role of VDD in this research is in formulating a value function for true preferences, whereas the role of MDO is to capture couplings and enable optimization using the value function, and the role of DA is to enable consistent design

  1. Structured decision making as a proactive approach to dealing with sea level rise in Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, J.; Fackler, P.L.; Nichols, J.D.; Lubow, B.C.; Eaton, M.J.; Runge, M.C.; Stith, B.M.; Langtimm, C.A.

    2011-01-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) projections along the coast of Florida present an enormous challenge for management and conservation over the long term. Decision makers need to recognize and adopt strategies to adapt to the potentially detrimental effects of SLR. Structured decision making (SDM) provides a rigorous framework for the management of natural resources. The aim of SDM is to identify decisions that are optimal with respect to management objectives and knowledge of the system. Most applications of SDM have assumed that the managed systems are governed by stationary processes. However, in the context of SLR it may be necessary to acknowledge that the processes underlying managed systems may be non-stationary, such that systems will be continuously changing. Therefore, SLR brings some unique considerations to the application of decision theory for natural resource management. In particular, SLR is expected to affect each of the components of SDM. For instance, management objectives may have to be reconsidered more frequently than under more stable conditions. The set of potential actions may also have to be adapted over time as conditions change. Models have to account for the non-stationarity of the modeled system processes. Each of the important sources of uncertainty in decision processes is expected to be exacerbated by SLR. We illustrate our ideas about adaptation of natural resource management to SLR by modeling a non-stationary system using a numerical example. We provide additional examples of an SDM approach for managing species that may be affected by SLR, with a focus on the endangered Florida manatee. ?? 2011 U.S. Government.

  2. Structured decision making as a proactive approach to dealing with sea level rise in Florida

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Martin, Julien; Fackler, Paul L.; Nichols, James D.; Lubow, Bruce C.; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Runge, Michael C.; Stith, Bradley M.; Langtimm, Catherine A.

    2011-01-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) projections along the coast of Florida present an enormous challenge for management and conservation over the long term. Decision makers need to recognize and adopt strategies to adapt to the potentially detrimental effects of SLR. Structured decision making (SDM) provides a rigorous framework for the management of natural resources. The aim of SDM is to identify decisions that are optimal with respect to management objectives and knowledge of the system. Most applications of SDM have assumed that the managed systems are governed by stationary processes. However, in the context of SLR it may be necessary to acknowledge that the processes underlying managed systems may be non-stationary, such that systems will be continuously changing. Therefore, SLR brings some unique considerations to the application of decision theory for natural resource management. In particular, SLR is expected to affect each of the components of SDM. For instance, management objectives may have to be reconsidered more frequently than under more stable conditions. The set of potential actions may also have to be adapted over time as conditions change. Models have to account for the non-stationarity of the modeled system processes. Each of the important sources of uncertainty in decision processes is expected to be exacerbated by SLR. We illustrate our ideas about adaptation of natural resource management to SLR by modeling a non-stationary system using a numerical example. We provide additional examples of an SDM approach for managing species that may be affected by SLR, with a focus on the endangered Florida manatee.

  3. Approaches to verification/validation of imbedded decision support systems applied to launch vehicle operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szatkowski, G. P.

    A methodology for incorporating expert decision support systems into launch vehicle operations is suggested based on a review of the current state of the art in verification and validation (V & V). Particular attention is given to the following areas that are believed to contribute to the overall V & V process: rapid prototyping, checking toolset utilities, and dynamic simulation analysis. Opportunities in operations that reduce costs and improve autonomy are considered.

  4. A risk-based focused decision-management approach for justifying characterization of Hanford tank waste. June 1996, Revision 1; April 1997, Revision 2

    SciTech Connect

    Colson, S.D.; Gephart, R.E.; Hunter, V.L.; Janata, J.; Morgan, L.G.

    1997-12-31

    This report describes a disciplined, risk-based decision-making approach for determining characterization needs and resolving safety issues during the storage and remediation of radioactive waste stored in Hanford tanks. The strategy recommended uses interactive problem evaluation and decision analysis methods commonly used in industry to solve problems under conditions of uncertainty (i.e., lack of perfect knowledge). It acknowledges that problem resolution comes through both the application of high-quality science and human decisions based upon preferences and sometimes hard-to-compare choices. It recognizes that to firmly resolve a safety problem, the controlling waste characteristics and chemical phenomena must be measurable or estimated to an acceptable level of confidence tailored to the decision being made.

  5. Opportunities and Examples for Integration of Socio-environmental Approaches to Support Climate-informed Decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kenney, M. A.

    2014-12-01

    Climate and environmental decisions require science that couples human and natural systems to quantify or articulate the observed physical, natural, and societal changes or likely consequences of different decision options. Despite the need for such policy-relevant research, multidisciplinary collaborations can be wrought with challenges of data integration, model interoperability, and communication across disciplinary divides. In this talk, I will present several examples where I have collaborated with colleagues from the physical, natural, and social sciences to develop novel, actionable science to inform decision-making. Specifically, I will discuss a cost analysis of water and sediment diversions to optimize land building in the Mississippi River delta (winner of American Geophysical Union Water Resources Research Editor's Choice Award 2014) and the development of a National Climate Indicator System that uses knowledge across the physical, natural, and social sciences to establish an end-to-end indicator system of climate changes, impacts, vulnerabilities, and responses. The latter project is in the process of moving from research to operations, an additional challenge and opportunity, as we work with the U.S. Global Change Research Program and their affiliated Federal agencies to establish it beyond the research prototype. Using these examples, I will provide some lessons learned that would have general applicability to socio-environmental research collaborations and integration of data, models, and information systems to support climate and environmental decision-making.

  6. Decision analysis for designing marine protected areas for multiple species with uncertain fishery status.

    PubMed

    White, J Wilson; Botsford, Louis W; Moffitt, Elizabeth A; Fischer, Douglas T

    2010-09-01

    Marine protected areas (MPAs) are growing in popularity as a conservation tool, and there are increasing calls for additional MPAs. Meta-analyses indicate that most MPAs successfully meet the minimal goal of increasing biomass inside the MPA, while some do not, leaving open the important question of what makes MPAs successful. An often-overlooked aspect of this problem is that the success of fishery management outside MPA boundaries (i.e., whether a population is overfished) affects how well MPAs meet both conservation goals (e.g., increased biomass) and economic goals (e.g., minimal negative effects on fishery yield). Using a simple example of a system with homogeneous habitat and periodically spaced MPAs, we show that, as area in MPAs increases, (1) conservation value (biomass) may initially be zero, implying no benefit, then at some point increases monotonically; and (2) fishery yield may be zero, then increases monotonically to a maximum beyond which further increase in MPA area causes yield to decline. Importantly, the points at which these changes in slope occur vary among species and depend on management outside MPAs. Decision makers considering the effects of a potential system of MPAs on multiple species are confronted by a number of such cost-benefit curves, and it is usually impossible to maximize benefits and minimize costs for all species. Moreover, the precise shape of each curve is unknown due to uncertainty regarding the fishery status of each species. Here we describe a decision-analytic approach that incorporates existing information on fishery stock status to present decision makers with the range of likely outcomes of MPA implementation. To summarize results from many species whose overfishing status is uncertain, our decision-analysis approach involves weighted averages over both overfishing uncertainty and species. In an example from an MPA decision process in California, USA, an optimistic projection of future fishery management success led

  7. A decision-theoretic framework for the application of cost-effectiveness analysis in regulatory processes.

    PubMed

    Baio, Gianluca; Russo, Pierluigi

    2009-01-01

    Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) represents the most important tool in the health economics literature to quantify and qualify the reasoning behind the optimal decision process in terms of the allocation of resources to a given health intervention. However, the practical application of CEA in the regulatory process is often limited by some critical barriers, and decisions in clinical practice are frequently influenced by factors that do not contribute to efficient resource allocation, leading to inappropriate drug prescription and utilization. Moreover, most of the time there is uncertainty about the real cost-effectiveness profile of an innovative intervention, with the consequence that it is usually impossible to obtain an immediate and perfect substitution of a product with another having a better cost-effectiveness ratio. The objective of this article is to propose a rational approach to CEA within regulatory processes, basing our analysis in a Bayesian decision-theoretic framework and proposing an extension of the application of well known tools (such as the expected value of information) to such cases. The regulator can use these tools to identify the economic value of reducing the uncertainty surrounding the cost-effectiveness profile of the several alternatives. This value can be compared with the one that is generated by the actual market share of the different treatment options: one that is the most cost effective and others in the same therapeutic category that, despite producing clinical benefits, are less cost effective.

  8. Application of multicriteria decision analysis tools to two contaminated sediment case studies.

    PubMed

    Yatsalo, Boris I; Kiker, Gregory A; Kim, St Jongbum; Bridges, Todd S; Seager, Thomas P; Gardner, Kevin; Satterstrom, F Kyle; Linkov, Igor

    2007-04-01

    Environmental decision making is becoming increasingly more information intensive and complex. Our previous work shows that multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) tools offer a scientifically sound decision analytical framework for environmental management, in general, and specifically for selecting optimal sediment management alternatives. Integration of MCDA into risk assessment and sediment management may require linkage of different models and software platforms whose results may lead to somewhat different conclusions. This paper illustrates the application of 3 different MCDA methods in 2 case studies involving contaminated sediment management. These case studies are based on real sediment management problems experienced by the US Army Corps of Engineers and other stakeholders in New York/New Jersey Harbor, USA, and the Cocheco River Superfund Site in New Hampshire, USA. Our analysis shows that application of 3 different MCDA tools points to similar management solutions no matter which tool is applied. MCDA tools and approaches were constructively used to elicit the strengths and weaknesses of each method when solving the problem. PMID:17477290

  9. INTEGRATING SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND ECOLOGICAL ANALYSIS TO IMPROVE WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT IN THE U.S.: TESTING A NEW ORGANIZING APPROACH FOR ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Conducting an integrated analysis to evaluate the societal and ecological consequences of environmental management actions requires decisions about data collection, theory development, modeling and valuation. Approaching these decisions in coordinated fashion necessitates a syste...

  10. Analysis of ETMS Data Quality for Traffic Flow Management Decisions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chatterji, Gano B.; Sridhar, Banavar; Kim, Douglas

    2003-01-01

    The data needed for air traffic flow management decision support tools is provided by the Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS). This includes both the tools that are in current use and the ones being developed for future deployment. Since the quality of decision support provided by all these tools will be influenced by the quality of the input ETMS data, an assessment of ETMS data quality is needed. Motivated by this desire, ETMS data quality is examined in this paper in terms of the unavailability of flight plans, deviation from the filed flight plans, departure delays, altitude errors and track data drops. Although many of these data quality issues are not new, little is known about their extent. A goal of this paper is to document the magnitude of data quality issues supported by numerical analysis of ETMS data. Guided by this goal, ETMS data for a 24-hour period were processed to determine the number of aircraft with missing flight plan messages at any given instant of time. Results are presented for aircraft above 18,000 feet altitude and also at all altitudes. Since deviation from filed flight plan is also a major cause of trajectory-modeling errors, statistics of deviations are presented. Errors in proposed departure times and ETMS-generated vertical profiles are also shown. A method for conditioning the vertical profiles for improving demand prediction accuracy is described. Graphs of actual sector counts obtained using these vertical profiles are compared with those obtained using the Host data for sectors in the Fort Worth Center to demonstrate the benefit of preprocessing. Finally, results are presented to quantify the extent of data drops. A method for propagating track positions during ETMS data drops is also described.

  11. How to guide therapeutic decisions in a patient-tailored approach to treatment of IBD?

    PubMed

    Rutgeerts, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Therapeutic decisions in the treatment of IBD involve the initial choice of therapy(ies) and designing a long-term strategy for the individual patient. Putting forward clear therapeutic aims is therefore critical in order to assess treatment success and to guide the sequential use of therapies. Although the ultimate goal of therapy is to achieve steroid-free remission and avoid complications and surgeries, the first therapeutic intervention will achieve these aims only in a minority of patients. Depending on the requirements and successes of each stage of therapy, interim goals are pursued which may be small steps towards the total control of the disease. A patient-tailored approach does not necessarily conflict with algorithm-based decision-making; indeed, they are complementary. The former allows the skipping of some steps in the algorithm, based on the individual patient characteristics. The latter supplies a basis for the rational sequential use of drugs. Many physicians use an accelerated step-up approach in the treatment of IBD, although it has not yet been established whether this is associated with a better outcome. Whether or not an endoscopic or (and) CT or MRI assessment is conducted, the therapeutic approach should be based on mucosal activity and the location and extent of the disease. Treatments that do not heal (or at least improve) ulcers are not to be continued if they have been given a reasonable time to work. Biomarkers like C-reactive protein and calprotectin can be useful surrogates in this setting.

  12. Opportunities for Sentinel-2 in an Integrated Sensor Approach to Support Decision Making in Precision Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kooistra, L.; Clevers, J.; Beza, E.; van Vliet, P.; van den Borne, J.; van der Velde, W.

    2012-04-01

    With the upcoming availability of the Sentinel-2 sensor, an important new data stream is becoming available which will provide images with high spatial, spectral and temporal resolution relevant for operational support of precision agricultural practices. The objective of the study presented in this paper is to develop innovative approaches for the integration and analysis of information from multiple sensors which allow timely detection and diagnosis of crop status in precision agriculture. Our hypothesis was that sensing based nutrient management of crops can be improved by combining structure and bio-chemistry based vegetation indices and also taking into account the spectral changes over the growing season. Based on controlled fertilization experiments sensor based decision rules were developed which in a next stage were applied to steer near-real variable rate fertilizer application within a parcel. As a case study, a detailed field experiment was conducted for two potato fields in the South of the Netherlands. In the field sub-plots (30*30 m) were prepared with four levels of nitrogen fertilization including two replicates. For all fields, detailed spectral measurements were made over the 2010 and 2011 growing season on a weekly basis using field spectrometers (Fieldspec FR, Cropscan) and commercial near-sensing instruments (Greenseeker, Yara, Cropcircle, Isaria) on the spraying boom of a tractor. In addition, satellite based remote sensing data (WorldView-2, DMC, Rapid-Eye) for a selection of dates were available. The nitrogen status of the crop was measured bi-weekly using the Minolta Spad instrument in the field and soil and crop nutrient status of the plots was also measured monthly by sampling and wet-chemistry analysis. In this paper we present the first results of the field experiment which will focus on three aspects: 1) investigate existing spectral indices for their ability to characterize crop nitrogen status in potato; 2) investigate the added

  13. GAIA - A New Approach To Decision Making on Climate Disruption Issues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paxton, L. J.; Weiss, M.; Schaefer, R. K.; Swartz, W. H.; Nix, M.; Strong, S. B.; Fountain, G. H.; Babin, S. M.; Pikas, C. K.; Parker, C. L.; Global Assimilation of InformationAction

    2011-12-01

    GAIA - the Global Assimilation of Information for Action program - provides a broadly extensible framework for enabling the development of a deeper understanding of the issues associated with climate disruption. The key notion of GAIA is that the global climate problem is so complex that a "system engineering" approach is needed in order to make it understandable. The key tenet of system engineering is to focus on requirements and to develop a cost-effective process for satisfying those requirements. To demonstrate this approach we focused first on the impact of climate disruption on public health. GAIA is described in some detail on our website (http://gaia.jhuapl.edu). Climate disruption is not just a scientific problem; one of the key issues that our community has is that of translating scientific results into knowledge that can be used to make informed decisions. In order to support decision makers we have to understand their issues and how to communicate with them. In this talk, we describe how we have built a community of interest that combines subject matter experts from diverse communities (public health, climate change, government, public policy, industry, etc) with policy makers and representatives from industry to develop, on a "level playing field", an understanding of each other's points of view and issues. The first application of this technology was the development of a workshop on Climate, Climate Change and Public Health held April 12-14, 2011. This paper describes our approach to going beyond the workshop environment to continue to engage the decision maker's community in a variety of ways that translate abstract scientific data into actionable information. Key ideas we will discuss include the development of social media, simulations of global/national/local environments affected by climate disruption, and visualizations of the monetary and health impacts of choosing not to address mitigation or adaptation to climate disruption.

  14. Decision analysis framing study; in-valley drainage management strategies for the western San Joaquin Valley, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Presser, Theresa S.; Jenni, Karen E.; Nieman, Timothy; Coleman, James

    2010-01-01

    Constraints on drainage management in the western San Joaquin Valley and implications of proposed approaches to management were recently evaluated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The USGS found that a significant amount of data for relevant technical issues was available and that a structured, analytical decision support tool could help optimize combinations of specific in-valley drainage management strategies, address uncertainties, and document underlying data analysis for future use. To follow-up on USGS's technical analysis and to help define a scientific basis for decisionmaking in implementing in-valley drainage management strategies, this report describes the first step (that is, a framing study) in a Decision Analysis process. In general, a Decision Analysis process includes four steps: (1) problem framing to establish the scope of the decision problem(s) and a set of fundamental objectives to evaluate potential solutions, (2) generation of strategies to address identified decision problem(s), (3) identification of uncertainties and their relationships, and (4) construction of a decision support model. Participation in such a systematic approach can help to promote consensus and to build a record of qualified supporting data for planning and implementation. In December 2008, a Decision Analysis framing study was initiated with a series of meetings designed to obtain preliminary input from key stakeholder groups on the scope of decisions relevant to drainage management that were of interest to them, and on the fundamental objectives each group considered relevant to those decisions. Two key findings of this framing study are: (1) participating stakeholders have many drainage management objectives in common; and (2) understanding the links between drainage management and water management is necessary both for sound science-based decisionmaking and for resolving stakeholder differences about the value of proposed drainage management solutions. Citing

  15. EPA Growing DASEES (Decision Analysis For A Sustainable Environment, Economy & Society) - To Aid In Making Decisions On Complex Environmental Issues

    EPA Science Inventory

    Having a framework and tools to help sort through complicated environmental issues in an objective way would be useful to communities and risk managers, and all the stakeholders affected by these issues. This is one need that DASEES (Decision Analysis for a Sustainable En...

  16. A multi-criteria decision making approach to identify a vaccine formulation.

    PubMed

    Dewé, Walthère; Durand, Christelle; Marion, Sandie; Oostvogels, Lidia; Devaster, Jeanne-Marie; Fourneau, Marc

    2016-01-01

    This article illustrates the use of a multi-criteria decision making approach, based on desirability functions, to identify an appropriate adjuvant composition for an influenza vaccine to be used in elderly. The proposed adjuvant system contained two main elements: monophosphoryl lipid and α-tocopherol with squalene in an oil/water emulsion. The objective was to elicit a stronger immune response while maintaining an acceptable reactogenicity and safety profile. The study design, the statistical models, the choice of the desirability functions, the computation of the overall desirability index, and the assessment of the robustness of the ranking are all detailed in this manuscript.

  17. The effects of stress on nuclear power plant operational decision making and training approaches to reduce stress effects

    SciTech Connect

    Mumaw, R.J.

    1994-08-01

    Operational personnel may be exposed to significant levels of stress during unexpected changes in plant state an plant emergencies. The decision making that identifies operational actions, which is strongly determined by procedures, may be affected by stress, and performance may be impaired. ER report analyzes potential effects of stress in nuclear power plant (NPP) settings, especially in the context of severe accident management (SAM). First, potential sources of stress in the NPP setting are identified. This analysis is followed by a review of the ways in which stress is likely to affect performance, with an emphasis on performance of cognitive skills that are linked to operational decision making. Finally, potential training approaches for reducing or eliminating stress effects are identified. Several training approaches have the potential to eliminate or mitigate stress effects on cognitive skill performance. First, the use of simulated events for training can reduce the novelty and uncertainty that can lead to stress and performance impairments. Second, training to make cognitive processing more efficient and less reliant on attention and memory resources can offset the reductions in these resources that occur under stressful conditions. Third, training that targets crew communications skills can reduce the likelihood that communications will fail under stress.

  18. Slower Perception Followed by Faster Lexical Decision in Longer Words: A Diffusion Model Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Oganian, Yulia; Froehlich, Eva; Schlickeiser, Ulrike; Hofmann, Markus J.; Heekeren, Hauke R.; Jacobs, Arthur M.

    2016-01-01

    Effects of stimulus length on reaction times (RTs) in the lexical decision task are the topic of extensive research. While slower RTs are consistently found for longer pseudo-words, a finding coined the word length effect (WLE), some studies found no effects for words, and yet others reported faster RTs for longer words. Moreover, the WLE depends on the orthographic transparency of a language, with larger effects in more transparent orthographies. Here we investigate processes underlying the WLE in lexical decision in German-English bilinguals using a diffusion model (DM) analysis, which we compared to a linear regression approach. In the DM analysis, RT-accuracy distributions are characterized using parameters that reflect latent sub-processes, in particular evidence accumulation and decision-independent perceptual encoding, instead of typical parameters such as mean RT and accuracy. The regression approach showed a decrease in RTs with length for pseudo-words, but no length effect for words. However, DM analysis revealed that the null effect for words resulted from opposing effects of length on perceptual encoding and rate of evidence accumulation. Perceptual encoding times increased with length for words and pseudo-words, whereas the rate of evidence accumulation increased with length for real words but decreased for pseudo-words. A comparison between DM parameters in German and English suggested that orthographic transparency affects perceptual encoding, whereas effects of length on evidence accumulation are likely to reflect contextual information and the increase in available perceptual evidence with length. These opposing effects may account for the inconsistent findings on WLEs. PMID:26779075

  19. Slower Perception Followed by Faster Lexical Decision in Longer Words: A Diffusion Model Analysis.

    PubMed

    Oganian, Yulia; Froehlich, Eva; Schlickeiser, Ulrike; Hofmann, Markus J; Heekeren, Hauke R; Jacobs, Arthur M

    2015-01-01

    Effects of stimulus length on reaction times (RTs) in the lexical decision task are the topic of extensive research. While slower RTs are consistently found for longer pseudo-words, a finding coined the word length effect (WLE), some studies found no effects for words, and yet others reported faster RTs for longer words. Moreover, the WLE depends on the orthographic transparency of a language, with larger effects in more transparent orthographies. Here we investigate processes underlying the WLE in lexical decision in German-English bilinguals using a diffusion model (DM) analysis, which we compared to a linear regression approach. In the DM analysis, RT-accuracy distributions are characterized using parameters that reflect latent sub-processes, in particular evidence accumulation and decision-independent perceptual encoding, instead of typical parameters such as mean RT and accuracy. The regression approach showed a decrease in RTs with length for pseudo-words, but no length effect for words. However, DM analysis revealed that the null effect for words resulted from opposing effects of length on perceptual encoding and rate of evidence accumulation. Perceptual encoding times increased with length for words and pseudo-words, whereas the rate of evidence accumulation increased with length for real words but decreased for pseudo-words. A comparison between DM parameters in German and English suggested that orthographic transparency affects perceptual encoding, whereas effects of length on evidence accumulation are likely to reflect contextual information and the increase in available perceptual evidence with length. These opposing effects may account for the inconsistent findings on WLEs.

  20. Costs of Lygus herbivory on cotton associated with farmer decision-making: an ecoinformatics approach.

    PubMed

    Rosenheim, Jay A

    2013-06-01

    Because the farmer is typically excluded from the experimental research setting, experimental research may face challenges in evaluating pest management tactics whose costs and benefits hinge on farmer decision-making. In these cases an ecoinformatics approach, in which observational data collected from the commercial farming setting are "mined" to quantify both biological variables and farmer behavior, can complement experimentation as a useful research tool. Here I analyze such an observational data set to characterize associations between early- (June) and mid-season (July) Lygus hesperus Knight populations and farmer decisions to apply plant growth regulators and defoliants. Previous experimental work suggested the hypothesis that Lygus herbivory, by inducing abscission of young flower buds, might generate increased use of plant growth regulators and defoliants. Cotton's ability to compensate for loss of flower buds may, however, increase as plants grow. On upland cotton, June Lygus populations were associated with increased use of plant growth regulators, as expected, but this relationship was not observed for July Lygus populations. June Lygus populations were not associated with the use of defoliants, whereas, surprisingly, July Lygus populations were associated with decreases in defoliant use. In contrast to these positive and negative associations observed on upland cotton, on Pima cotton Lygus populations exhibited no associations with use of either plant growth regulators or defoliants. These results suggest that cotton responses to Lygus herbivory, as demonstrated in previously published experimental studies, can translate into economically meaningful changes in farmer decisions to apply agricultural chemicals. PMID:23865193

  1. Abnormal causal attribution leads to advantageous economic decision-making: A neuropsychological approach

    PubMed Central

    Koscik, Timothy R.; Tranel, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    People tend to assume that outcomes are caused by dispositional factors, e.g., a person’s constitution or personality, even when the actual cause is due to situational factors, e.g., luck or coincidence. This is known as the ‘correspondence bias.’ This tendency can lead normal, intelligent persons to make suboptimal decisions. Here, we used a neuropsychological approach to investigate the neural basis of the correspondence bias, by studying economic decision-making in patients with damage to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC). Given the role of the vmPFC in social cognition, we predicted that vmPFC is necessary for the normal correspondence bias. In our experiment, consistent with expectations, healthy (N=46) and brain-damaged (N=30) comparison participants displayed the correspondence bias when investing and invested no differently when given dispositional or situational information. By contrast, vmPFC patients (N=17) displayed a lack of correspondence bias and invested more when given dispositional than situational information. The results support the conclusion that vmPFC is critical for normal social inference and the correspondence bias, and our findings help clarify the important (and potentially disadvantageous) role of social inference in economic decision-making. PMID:23574584

  2. Costs of Lygus herbivory on cotton associated with farmer decision-making: an ecoinformatics approach.

    PubMed

    Rosenheim, Jay A

    2013-06-01

    Because the farmer is typically excluded from the experimental research setting, experimental research may face challenges in evaluating pest management tactics whose costs and benefits hinge on farmer decision-making. In these cases an ecoinformatics approach, in which observational data collected from the commercial farming setting are "mined" to quantify both biological variables and farmer behavior, can complement experimentation as a useful research tool. Here I analyze such an observational data set to characterize associations between early- (June) and mid-season (July) Lygus hesperus Knight populations and farmer decisions to apply plant growth regulators and defoliants. Previous experimental work suggested the hypothesis that Lygus herbivory, by inducing abscission of young flower buds, might generate increased use of plant growth regulators and defoliants. Cotton's ability to compensate for loss of flower buds may, however, increase as plants grow. On upland cotton, June Lygus populations were associated with increased use of plant growth regulators, as expected, but this relationship was not observed for July Lygus populations. June Lygus populations were not associated with the use of defoliants, whereas, surprisingly, July Lygus populations were associated with decreases in defoliant use. In contrast to these positive and negative associations observed on upland cotton, on Pima cotton Lygus populations exhibited no associations with use of either plant growth regulators or defoliants. These results suggest that cotton responses to Lygus herbivory, as demonstrated in previously published experimental studies, can translate into economically meaningful changes in farmer decisions to apply agricultural chemicals.

  3. Assessment of three approaches for regulatory decision making on pesticides with endocrine disrupting properties.

    PubMed

    Marx-Stoelting, P; Niemann, L; Ritz, V; Ulbrich, B; Gall, A; Hirsch-Ernst, K I; Pfeil, R; Solecki, R

    2014-12-01

    Recent EU legislation has introduced endocrine disrupting properties as a hazard-based "cut-off" criterion for the approval of active substances as pesticides and biocides. Currently, no specific science-based approach for the assessment of substances with endocrine disrupting properties has been agreed upon, although this new legislation provides interim criteria based on classification and labelling. Different proposals for decision making on potential endocrine disrupting properties in human health risk assessment have been developed by the German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment (BfR) and other regulatory bodies. All these frameworks, although differing with regard to hazard characterisation, include a toxicological assessment of adversity of the effects, the evaluation of underlying modes/mechanisms of action in animals and considerations concerning the relevance of effects to humans. Three options for regulatory decision making were tested upon 39 pesticides for their applicability and to analyze their potential impact on the regulatory status of active substances that are currently approved for use in Europe: Option 1, based purely on hazard identification (adversity, mode of action, and the plausibility that both are related); Option 2, based on hazard identification and additional elements of hazard characterisation (severity and potency); Option 3, based on the interim criteria laid down in the recent EU pesticides legislation. Additionally, the data analysed in this study were used to address the questions, which parts of the endocrine system were affected, which studies were the most sensitive and whether no observed adverse effect levels were observed for substance with ED properties. The results of this exercise represent preliminary categorisations and must not be used as a basis for definitive regulatory decisions. They demonstrate that a combination of criteria for hazard identification with additional criteria of hazard characterisation

  4. A decision-making approach for delineating sites which are potentially contaminated by heavy metals via joint simulation.

    PubMed

    Lin, Wei-Chih; Lin, Yu-Pin; Wang, Yung-Chieh

    2016-04-01

    This work develops a new approach for delineating sites that are contaminated by multiple soil heavy metals and applies it to a case study. First a number of contaminant sample data are transformed into multiple spatially un-correlated factors using Uniformly Weighted Exhaustive Diagonalization with Gauss iterations (U-WEDGE). Sequential Gaussian simulation (sGs) is then used to generate sets of realizations of each resultant factor. These are then transformed into sets of sGs contaminant distribution realizations, which are then used to analyze the local and spatial (global) uncertainties in the distribution and concentration of contaminants via joint simulation. Finally, Info-Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) is used to consider different monitoring and or remediation regimes based on the analysis of contaminant realization spatial uncertainty. In our case study each heavy metal contaminant was considered individually and together with all other heavy metals; as the number of heavy metals considered increased, higher critical proportion values of local probability were chosen to obtain a low global uncertainty (to provide high reliability). Info-Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) yielded the most appropriate critical proportion values which minimized information loss in terms of specific goals. When the false negative rate is set to zero, meaning that it is necessary to monitor all potentially polluted areas, the corresponding false positive rates are at least 63%, 65%, 66%, 68%, 70%, and 78% to yield robustness levels of 0.50, 0.60, 0.70, 0.80, 0.90, and 1.00 respectively. However, when the false negative rate tolerance threshold is raised to 50%, the false positive rate tolerance which yields robustness levels of 0.50, 0.60, 0.70, 0.80, 0.90 and 1.00 drop to 12%, 14%, 15%, 18%, 20%, and 39%. The case study demonstrates the effectiveness of the developed approach at making robust decisions concerning the delineation of sites contaminated by multiple heavy metals.

  5. The Application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis to the Ioland Water Treatment Plant in Lusaka, Zambia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kucharski, John; Tkach, Mark; Olszewski, Jennifer; Chaudhry, Rabia; Mendoza, Guillermo

    2016-04-01

    This presentation demonstrates the application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) at Zambia's principal water treatment facility, The Iolanda Water Treatment Plant. The water treatment plant is prone to unacceptable failures during periods of low hydropower production at the Kafue Gorge Dam Hydroelectric Power Plant. The case study explores approaches of increasing the water treatment plant's ability to deliver acceptable levels of service under the range of current and potential future climate states. The objective of the study is to investigate alternative investments to build system resilience that might have been informed by the CRIDA process, and to evaluate the extra resource requirements by a bilateral donor agency to implement the CRIDA process. The case study begins with an assessment of the water treatment plant's vulnerability to climate change. It does so by following general principals described in "Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resource Planning and Project Design: the Decision Tree Framework". By utilizing relatively simple bootstrapping methods a range of possible future climate states is generated while avoiding the use of more complex and costly downscaling methodologies; that are beyond the budget and technical capacity of many teams. The resulting climate vulnerabilities and uncertainty in the climate states that produce them are analyzed as part of a "Level of Concern" analysis. CRIDA principals are then applied to this Level of Concern analysis in order to arrive at a set of actionable water management decisions. The principal goals of water resource management is to transform variable, uncertain hydrology into dependable services (e.g. water supply, flood risk reduction, ecosystem benefits, hydropower production, etc…). Traditional approaches to climate adaptation require the generation of predicted future climate states but do little guide decision makers how this information should impact decision making. In

  6. Decision analysis for conservation breeding: Maximizing production for reintroduction of whooping cranes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, Des H.V.; Converse, Sarah J.; Gibson, Keith; Moehrenschlager, Axel; Link, William A.; Olsen, Glenn H.; Maguire, Kelly

    2011-01-01

    Captive breeding is key to management of severely endangered species, but maximizing captive production can be challenging because of poor knowledge of species breeding biology and the complexity of evaluating different management options. In the face of uncertainty and complexity, decision-analytic approaches can be used to identify optimal management options for maximizing captive production. Building decision-analytic models requires iterations of model conception, data analysis, model building and evaluation, identification of remaining uncertainty, further research and monitoring to reduce uncertainty, and integration of new data into the model. We initiated such a process to maximize captive production of the whooping crane (Grus americana), the world's most endangered crane, which is managed through captive breeding and reintroduction. We collected 15 years of captive breeding data from 3 institutions and used Bayesian analysis and model selection to identify predictors of whooping crane hatching success. The strongest predictor, and that with clear management relevance, was incubation environment. The incubation period of whooping crane eggs is split across two environments: crane nests and artificial incubators. Although artificial incubators are useful for allowing breeding pairs to produce multiple clutches, our results indicate that crane incubation is most effective at promoting hatching success. Hatching probability increased the longer an egg spent in a crane nest, from 40% hatching probability for eggs receiving 1 day of crane incubation to 95% for those receiving 30 days (time incubated in each environment varied independently of total incubation period). Because birds will lay fewer eggs when they are incubating longer, a tradeoff exists between the number of clutches produced and egg hatching probability. We developed a decision-analytic model that estimated 16 to be the optimal number of days of crane incubation needed to maximize the number of

  7. Child Protection Decision Making: A Factorial Analysis Using Case Vignettes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stokes, Jacqueline; Schmidt, Glen

    2012-01-01

    This study explored decision making by child protection social workers in the province of British Columbia, Canada. A factorial survey method was used in which case vignettes were constructed by randomly assigning a number of key characteristics associated with decision making in child protection. Child protection social workers (n = 118) assessed…

  8. Managing physician lipid management: a population wide, risk-based decision support approach.

    PubMed

    Rubenstein, Lisa V

    2015-01-01

    Successful implementation of clinical guidelines for preventing complications of dyslipidemias has been an ongoing challenge. The article by Vinker and colleagues in this journal investigates the results of implementing risk-based guidelines for LDL (Low Density Lipoprotein) management in comparison to the prior approach of using the same LDL cutoff for patients at all levels of risk. Results show LDL levels dropped across the primary care population using the new risk-based approach, suggesting that clinical decision aids that link to individual patient characteristics, rather than promoting a universal target for all, may provide a particularly strong stimulus for changing provider and patient behavior. Results also challenge healthcare organizations, providers and patients to learn more about the pathway from guidelines to clinical reminders and from reminders to lower LDL levels and better population health. PMID:26175893

  9. Dynamic waste management (DWM): towards an evolutionary decision-making approach.

    PubMed

    Rojo, Gabriel; Glaus, Mathias; Laforest, Valerie; Laforest, Valérie; Bourgois, Jacques; Bourgeois, Jacques; Hausler, Robert

    2013-12-01

    To guarantee sustainable and dynamic waste management, the dynamic waste management approach (DWM) suggests an evolutionary new approach that maintains a constant flow towards the most favourable waste treatment processes (facilities) within a system. To that end, DWM is based on the law of conservation of energy, which allows the balancing of a network, while considering the constraints of incoming (h1 ) and outgoing (h2 ) loads, as well as the distribution network (ΔH) characteristics. The developed approach lies on the identification of the prioritization index (PI) for waste generators (analogy to h1 ), a global allocation index for each of the treatment processes (analogy to h2 ) and the linear index load loss (ΔH) associated with waste transport. To demonstrate the scope of DWM, we outline this approach, and then present an example of its application. The case study shows that the variable monthly waste from the three considered sources is dynamically distributed in priority to the more favourable processes. Moreover, the reserve (stock) helps temporarily store waste in order to ease the global load of the network and favour a constant feeding of the treatment processes. The DWM approach serves as a decision-making tool by evaluating new waste treatment processes, as well as their location and new means of transport for waste.

  10. Dynamic waste management (DWM): towards an evolutionary decision-making approach.

    PubMed

    Rojo, Gabriel; Glaus, Mathias; Laforest, Valerie; Laforest, Valérie; Bourgois, Jacques; Bourgeois, Jacques; Hausler, Robert

    2013-12-01

    To guarantee sustainable and dynamic waste management, the dynamic waste management approach (DWM) suggests an evolutionary new approach that maintains a constant flow towards the most favourable waste treatment processes (facilities) within a system. To that end, DWM is based on the law of conservation of energy, which allows the balancing of a network, while considering the constraints of incoming (h1 ) and outgoing (h2 ) loads, as well as the distribution network (ΔH) characteristics. The developed approach lies on the identification of the prioritization index (PI) for waste generators (analogy to h1 ), a global allocation index for each of the treatment processes (analogy to h2 ) and the linear index load loss (ΔH) associated with waste transport. To demonstrate the scope of DWM, we outline this approach, and then present an example of its application. The case study shows that the variable monthly waste from the three considered sources is dynamically distributed in priority to the more favourable processes. Moreover, the reserve (stock) helps temporarily store waste in order to ease the global load of the network and favour a constant feeding of the treatment processes. The DWM approach serves as a decision-making tool by evaluating new waste treatment processes, as well as their location and new means of transport for waste. PMID:24135550

  11. Impact of contour on aesthetic judgments and approach-avoidance decisions in architecture.

    PubMed

    Vartanian, Oshin; Navarrete, Gorka; Chatterjee, Anjan; Fich, Lars Brorson; Leder, Helmut; Modroño, Cristián; Nadal, Marcos; Rostrup, Nicolai; Skov, Martin

    2013-06-18

    On average, we urban dwellers spend about 90% of our time indoors, and share the intuition that the physical features of the places we live and work in influence how we feel and act. However, there is surprisingly little research on how architecture impacts behavior, much less on how it influences brain function. To begin closing this gap, we conducted a functional magnetic resonance imaging study to examine how systematic variation in contour impacts aesthetic judgments and approach-avoidance decisions, outcome measures of interest to both architects and users of spaces alike. As predicted, participants were more likely to judge spaces as beautiful if they were curvilinear than rectilinear. Neuroanatomically, when contemplating beauty, curvilinear contour activated the anterior cingulate cortex exclusively, a region strongly responsive to the reward properties and emotional salience of objects. Complementing this finding, pleasantness--the valence dimension of the affect circumplex--accounted for nearly 60% of the variance in beauty ratings. Furthermore, activation in a distributed brain network known to underlie the aesthetic evaluation of different types of visual stimuli covaried with beauty ratings. In contrast, contour did not affect approach-avoidance decisions, although curvilinear spaces activated the visual cortex. The results suggest that the well-established effect of contour on aesthetic preference can be extended to architecture. Furthermore, the combination of our behavioral and neural evidence underscores the role of emotion in our preference for curvilinear objects in this domain.

  12. Impact of contour on aesthetic judgments and approach-avoidance decisions in architecture.

    PubMed

    Vartanian, Oshin; Navarrete, Gorka; Chatterjee, Anjan; Fich, Lars Brorson; Leder, Helmut; Modroño, Cristián; Nadal, Marcos; Rostrup, Nicolai; Skov, Martin

    2013-06-18

    On average, we urban dwellers spend about 90% of our time indoors, and share the intuition that the physical features of the places we live and work in influence how we feel and act. However, there is surprisingly little research on how architecture impacts behavior, much less on how it influences brain function. To begin closing this gap, we conducted a functional magnetic resonance imaging study to examine how systematic variation in contour impacts aesthetic judgments and approach-avoidance decisions, outcome measures of interest to both architects and users of spaces alike. As predicted, participants were more likely to judge spaces as beautiful if they were curvilinear than rectilinear. Neuroanatomically, when contemplating beauty, curvilinear contour activated the anterior cingulate cortex exclusively, a region strongly responsive to the reward properties and emotional salience of objects. Complementing this finding, pleasantness--the valence dimension of the affect circumplex--accounted for nearly 60% of the variance in beauty ratings. Furthermore, activation in a distributed brain network known to underlie the aesthetic evaluation of different types of visual stimuli covaried with beauty ratings. In contrast, contour did not affect approach-avoidance decisions, although curvilinear spaces activated the visual cortex. The results suggest that the well-established effect of contour on aesthetic preference can be extended to architecture. Furthermore, the combination of our behavioral and neural evidence underscores the role of emotion in our preference for curvilinear objects in this domain. PMID:23754408

  13. Impact of contour on aesthetic judgments and approach-avoidance decisions in architecture

    PubMed Central

    Vartanian, Oshin; Navarrete, Gorka; Chatterjee, Anjan; Fich, Lars Brorson; Leder, Helmut; Modroño, Cristián; Nadal, Marcos; Rostrup, Nicolai; Skov, Martin

    2013-01-01

    On average, we urban dwellers spend about 90% of our time indoors, and share the intuition that the physical features of the places we live and work in influence how we feel and act. However, there is surprisingly little research on how architecture impacts behavior, much less on how it influences brain function. To begin closing this gap, we conducted a functional magnetic resonance imaging study to examine how systematic variation in contour impacts aesthetic judgments and approach-avoidance decisions, outcome measures of interest to both architects and users of spaces alike. As predicted, participants were more likely to judge spaces as beautiful if they were curvilinear than rectilinear. Neuroanatomically, when contemplating beauty, curvilinear contour activated the anterior cingulate cortex exclusively, a region strongly responsive to the reward properties and emotional salience of objects. Complementing this finding, pleasantness—the valence dimension of the affect circumplex—accounted for nearly 60% of the variance in beauty ratings. Furthermore, activation in a distributed brain network known to underlie the aesthetic evaluation of different types of visual stimuli covaried with beauty ratings. In contrast, contour did not affect approach-avoidance decisions, although curvilinear spaces activated the visual cortex. The results suggest that the well-established effect of contour on aesthetic preference can be extended to architecture. Furthermore, the combination of our behavioral and neural evidence underscores the role of emotion in our preference for curvilinear objects in this domain. PMID:23754408

  14. VisualDecisionLinc: a visual analytics approach for comparative effectiveness-based clinical decision support in psychiatry.

    PubMed

    Mane, Ketan K; Bizon, Chris; Schmitt, Charles; Owen, Phillips; Burchett, Bruce; Pietrobon, Ricardo; Gersing, Kenneth

    2012-02-01

    Comparative Effectiveness Research (CER) is designed to provide research evidence on the effectiveness and risks of different therapeutic options on the basis of data compiled from subpopulations of patients with similar medical conditions. Electronic Health Record (EHR) system contain large volumes of patient data that could be used for CER, but the data contained in EHR system are typically accessible only in formats that are not conducive to rapid synthesis and interpretation of therapeutic outcomes. In the time-pressured clinical setting, clinicians faced with large amounts of patient data in formats that are not readily interpretable often feel 'information overload'. Decision support tools that enable rapid access at the point of care to aggregate data on the most effective therapeutic outcomes derived from CER would greatly aid the clinical decision-making process and individualize patient care. In this manuscript, we highlight the role that visual analytics can play in CER-based clinical decision support. We developed a 'VisualDecisionLinc' (VDL) tool prototype that uses visual analytics to provide summarized CER-derived data views to facilitate rapid interpretation of large amounts of data. We highlight the flexibility that visual analytics offers to gain an overview of therapeutic options and outcomes and if needed, to instantly customize the evidence to the needs of the patient or clinician. The VDL tool uses visual analytics to help the clinician evaluate and understand the effectiveness and risk of different therapeutic options for different subpopulations of patients.

  15. Ecosystem Decision Support: A Living Database of Existing Tools, Approaches and Techniques for Supporting Decisions Related to Ecosystem Services

    EPA Science Inventory

    Planners and decision makers are challenged to consider not only direct market costs, but also ecological externalities. There is an increasing emphasis on ecosystem services in the context of human well-being, and therefore the valuation and accounting of ecosystem services is b...

  16. Suitability analysis for siting MSW landfills and its multicriteria spatial decision support system: method, implementation and case study.

    PubMed

    Demesouka, O E; Vavatsikos, A P; Anagnostopoulos, K P

    2013-05-01

    Multicriteria spatial decision support systems (MC-SDSS) have emerged as an integration of geographical information systems (GIS) and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods for incorporating conflicting objectives and decision makers' (DMs') preferences into spatial decision models. This article presents a raster-based MC-SDSS that combines the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and compromise programming methods, such as TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution) and Ideal Point Methods. To the best of our knowledge it is the first time that a synergy of AHP and compromise programming methods is implemented in raster-driven GIS-based landfill suitability analysis. This procedure is supported by a spatial decision support system (SDSS) that was developed within a widely used commercial GIS software package. A real case study in the Thrace region in northeast Greece serves as a guide on how to conduct a suitability analysis for a MSW landfill site with the proposed MC-SDSS. Moreover, the procedure for identifying MSW disposal sites is accomplished by performing four computational models for synthesizing the DMs per criterion preferential system. Based on the case study results, a comparison analysis is performed according to suitability index estimations. According to them Euclidean distance metric and TOPSIS present strong similarities. When compared with Euclidean distance metric, TOPSIS seems to generate results closer to that derived by Manhattan distance metric. The comparison of Chebychev distance metric with all the other approaches revealed the greatest deviations. PMID:23453354

  17. Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. Method This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA), which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK) to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1) Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA), and 2) Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR). In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. Results EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1) Data collection and data preparation; 2) acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK) and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB); 3) PKB-guided analysis; 4) support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited); 5) incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6) post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering), applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. Discussion This paper presents Eb

  18. Social decision-making and life skills development: a critical thinking approach to health promotion in the middle school.

    PubMed

    Elias, M J; Kress, J S

    1994-02-01

    This article discusses a classroom-based social decision-making intervention for health promotion and prevention of problem behaviors. The social decision-making approach brings together social-cognitive, affective, behavioral, and social relationship areas with critical thinking skills important for academic achievement. These skills are the same ones needed to promote children's health and prevent substance abuse and related health-compromising behaviors. Key components of this program, its development, and theoretical background are discussed, focusing on implications for school-based health promotion. As such, social decision-making provides an approach to health promotion that enhances coordination among classroom and health education personnel. The middle school years, a time of increasing risk for negative health-related outcomes, are examined as a key period for intervention. Finally, empirical evidence supporting use of social decision-making and related approaches is discussed. PMID:8028301

  19. The influence of expert opinions on the selection of wastewater treatment alternatives: a group decision-making approach.

    PubMed

    Kalbar, Pradip P; Karmakar, Subhankar; Asolekar, Shyam R

    2013-10-15

    The application of multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) to real life decision problems suggests that avoiding the loss of information through scenario-based approaches and including expert opinions in the decision-making process are two major challenges that require more research efforts. Recently, a wastewater treatment technology selection effort has been made with a 'scenario-based' method of MADM. This paper focuses on a novel approach to incorporate expert opinions into the scenario-based decision-making process, as expert opinions play a major role in the selection of treatment technologies. The sets of criteria and the indicators that are used consist of both qualitative and quantitative criteria. The group decision-making (GDM) approach that is implemented for aggregating expert opinions is based on an analytical hierarchy process (AHP), which is the most widely used MADM method. The pairwise comparison matrices (PCMs) for qualitative criteria are formed based on expert opinions, whereas, a novel approach is proposed for generating PCMs for quantitative criteria. It has been determined that the experts largely prefer natural treatment systems because they are more sustainable in any scenario. However, PCMs based on expert opinions suggest that advanced technologies such as the sequencing batch reactor (SBR) can also be appropriate for a given decision scenario. The proposed GDM approach is a rationalized process that will be more appropriate in realistic scenarios where multiple stakeholders with local and regional societal priorities are involved in the selection of treatment technology.

  20. The influence of expert opinions on the selection of wastewater treatment alternatives: a group decision-making approach.

    PubMed

    Kalbar, Pradip P; Karmakar, Subhankar; Asolekar, Shyam R

    2013-10-15

    The application of multiple-attribute decision-making (MADM) to real life decision problems suggests that avoiding the loss of information through scenario-based approaches and including expert opinions in the decision-making process are two major challenges that require more research efforts. Recently, a wastewater treatment technology selection effort has been made with a 'scenario-based' method of MADM. This paper focuses on a novel approach to incorporate expert opinions into the scenario-based decision-making process, as expert opinions play a major role in the selection of treatment technologies. The sets of criteria and the indicators that are used consist of both qualitative and quantitative criteria. The group decision-making (GDM) approach that is implemented for aggregating expert opinions is based on an analytical hierarchy process (AHP), which is the most widely used MADM method. The pairwise comparison matrices (PCMs) for qualitative criteria are formed based on expert opinions, whereas, a novel approach is proposed for generating PCMs for quantitative criteria. It has been determined that the experts largely prefer natural treatment systems because they are more sustainable in any scenario. However, PCMs based on expert opinions suggest that advanced technologies such as the sequencing batch reactor (SBR) can also be appropriate for a given decision scenario. The proposed GDM approach is a rationalized process that will be more appropriate in realistic scenarios where multiple stakeholders with local and regional societal priorities are involved in the selection of treatment technology. PMID:23872214

  1. Applicability of risk-based management and the need for risk-based economic decision analysis at hazardous waste contaminated sites.

    PubMed

    Khadam, Ibrahim; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J

    2003-07-01

    Decision analysis in subsurface contamination management is generally carried out through a traditional engineering economic viewpoint. However, new advances in human health risk assessment, namely, the probabilistic risk assessment, and the growing awareness of the importance of soft data in the decision-making process, require decision analysis methodologies that are capable of accommodating non-technical and politically biased qualitative information. In this work, we discuss the major limitations of the currently practiced decision analysis framework, which evolves around the definition of risk and cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. A demonstration using a numerical example was conducted to provide insight on these limitations of the current decision analysis framework. The results from this simple ground water contamination and remediation scenario were identical to those obtained from studies carried out on existing Superfund sites, which suggests serious flaws in the current risk management framework. In order to provide a perspective on how these limitations may be avoided in future formulation of the management framework, more matured and well-accepted approaches to decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, where public health and public investment are of great concern, are presented and their applicability in subsurface remediation management is discussed. Finally, in light of the success of the application of risk-based decision analysis in dam safety and the utility industry, potential options for decision analysis in subsurface contamination management are discussed.

  2. Comparison of residents’ approaches to clinical decisions before and after the implementation of Evidence Based Medicine course

    PubMed Central

    KARIMIAN, ZAHRA; KOJURI, JAVAD; SAGHEB, MOHAMMAD MAHDI; MAHBOUDI, ALI; SABER, MAHBOOBEH; AMINI, MITRA; DEHGHANI, MOHAMMAD REZA

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: It has been found that the decision-making process in medicine is affected, to a large extent, by one’s experience, individual mentality, previous models, and common habitual approaches, in addition to scientific principles. Evidence-based medicine is an approach attempting to reinforce scientific, systematic and critical thinking in physicians and provide the ground for optimal decision making. In this connection, the purpose of the present study is to find out to what extent the education of evidence based medicine affects clinical decision making. Methods: The present quasi-experimental study was carried out on 110 clinical residents, who started their education in September, 2012 and finally 62 residents filled out the questionnaires. The instrument used was a researcher-made questionnaire containing items on four decision-making approaches. The questionnaire was used both as a pre-test and a post-test to assess the residents’ viewpoints on decision making approaches. The validity of the questionnaire was determined using medical education and clinical professionals’ viewpoints, and the reliability was calculated through Chronbach alpha; it was found to be 0.93. The results were analyzed by paired t-test using SPSS, version 14. Results: The results demonstrated that evidence-based medicine workshop significantly affected the residents’ decision-making approaches (p<0.001). The pre-test showed that principles-based, reference-based and routine model-based approaches were more preferred before the program (p<0.001). However, after the implementation of the program, the dominant approaches used by the residents in their decision making were evidence-based ones.  Conclusion: To develop the evidence-based approach, it is necessary for educational programs to continue steadily and goal-orientedly. In addition, the equipment infrastructure such as the Internet, access to data bases, scientific data, and clinical guides should develop more in the

  3. Flow Analysis: A Novel Approach For Classification.

    PubMed

    Vakh, Christina; Falkova, Marina; Timofeeva, Irina; Moskvin, Alexey; Moskvin, Leonid; Bulatov, Andrey

    2016-09-01

    We suggest a novel approach for classification of flow analysis methods according to the conditions under which the mass transfer processes and chemical reactions take place in the flow mode: dispersion-convection flow methods and forced-convection flow methods. The first group includes continuous flow analysis, flow injection analysis, all injection analysis, sequential injection analysis, sequential injection chromatography, cross injection analysis, multi-commutated flow analysis, multi-syringe flow injection analysis, multi-pumping flow systems, loop flow analysis, and simultaneous injection effective mixing flow analysis. The second group includes segmented flow analysis, zone fluidics, flow batch analysis, sequential injection analysis with a mixing chamber, stepwise injection analysis, and multi-commutated stepwise injection analysis. The offered classification allows systematizing a large number of flow analysis methods. Recent developments and applications of dispersion-convection flow methods and forced-convection flow methods are presented.

  4. Flow Analysis: A Novel Approach For Classification.

    PubMed

    Vakh, Christina; Falkova, Marina; Timofeeva, Irina; Moskvin, Alexey; Moskvin, Leonid; Bulatov, Andrey

    2016-09-01

    We suggest a novel approach for classification of flow analysis methods according to the conditions under which the mass transfer processes and chemical reactions take place in the flow mode: dispersion-convection flow methods and forced-convection flow methods. The first group includes continuous flow analysis, flow injection analysis, all injection analysis, sequential injection analysis, sequential injection chromatography, cross injection analysis, multi-commutated flow analysis, multi-syringe flow injection analysis, multi-pumping flow systems, loop flow analysis, and simultaneous injection effective mixing flow analysis. The second group includes segmented flow analysis, zone fluidics, flow batch analysis, sequential injection analysis with a mixing chamber, stepwise injection analysis, and multi-commutated stepwise injection analysis. The offered classification allows systematizing a large number of flow analysis methods. Recent developments and applications of dispersion-convection flow methods and forced-convection flow methods are presented. PMID:26364745

  5. IDHEAS – A NEW APPROACH FOR HUMAN RELIABILITY ANALYSIS

    SciTech Connect

    G. W. Parry; J.A Forester; V.N. Dang; S. M. L. Hendrickson; M. Presley; E. Lois; J. Xing

    2013-09-01

    This paper describes a method, IDHEAS (Integrated Decision-Tree Human Event Analysis System) that has been developed jointly by the US NRC and EPRI as an improved approach to Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) that is based on an understanding of the cognitive mechanisms and performance influencing factors (PIFs) that affect operator responses. The paper describes the various elements of the method, namely the performance of a detailed cognitive task analysis that is documented in a crew response tree (CRT), and the development of the associated time-line to identify the critical tasks, i.e. those whose failure results in a human failure event (HFE), and an approach to quantification that is based on explanations of why the HFE might occur.

  6. NASA Water-Cycle Solutions Networks and Community of Practice Approaches to enhance Decision-making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pozzi, W.; Ward, J.; Cox, E. L.; Lawford, R. G.; Matthews, D.; Houser, P.; Doherty, M.

    2009-12-01

    The Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has created the Asian Water Cycle Initiative regional network for South Asia and NASA has launched two networks to enhance the rapid transitioning of scientific achievements and NASA technology into operational use. All three networks meet a new type of scientific challenge by providing strong linkage among the scientific communities, the space agencies, and decision makers. We focus here on the two NASA-sponsored networks that carry out complementary approaches: WaterNet focused on large-scale national/international collaborations; North Olympic Peninsula Solution Network developed a local proof of concept project first, then began integration and collaboration at progressively larger scales, culminating with a national-level discourse via the National Association of Resource, Conservation and Development councils (NARC&DC). The ultimate goals of both groups were to bring NASA Science and Technology products to organizations/groups to improve decision making and to create collaborations and networks that would extend beyond the parent groups and expand and continue to be sustainable, after the original projects were completed. This paper provides a summary of lessons learned. The primary objective of the NOPSN is to bring NASA science and technology tools to watershed managers to improve the scientific basis of decision making in NASA national application areas of water management, agricultural efficiency, and ecological forecasting. To achieve this objective, the NOPSN team first developed and implemented a local proof-of-concept project for the Dungeness River, Washington, to improve water forecasting. The team then developed local and regional collaborations with water resource managers, stakeholder groups, and local, state, and federal agencies to identify environmental issues, challenges, and needs that could be addressed with NASA technology. Finally,through its partnership with NARC&D, it provided the NOPSN

  7. Hurricane risk assessment to rollback or ride out a cost versus loss decision making approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wohlman, Richard A.

    1992-01-01

    The potential exists that a hurricane striking the Kennedy Space Center while a Space Shuttle is on the pad. Winds in excess of 74.5 knots could cause the failure of the holddown bolts bringing about the catastrophic loss of the entire vehicle. Current plans call for the rollback of the shuttle when winds of that magnitude are forecast to strike the center. As this is costly, a new objective method for making rollback/rideout decisions based upon Bayesian Analysis and economic cost versus loss is presented.

  8. Decision-making during gambling: an integration of cognitive and psychobiological approaches

    PubMed Central

    Clark, Luke

    2010-01-01

    Gambling is a widespread form of entertainment that may afford unique insights into the interaction between cognition and emotion in human decision-making. It is also a behaviour that can become harmful, and potentially addictive, in a minority of individuals. This article considers the status of two dominant approaches to gambling behaviour. The cognitive approach has identified a number of erroneous beliefs held by gamblers, which cause them to over-estimate their chances of winning. The psychobiological approach has examined case-control differences between groups of pathological gamblers and healthy controls, and has identified dysregulation of brain areas linked to reward and emotion, including the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and striatum, as well as alterations in dopamine neurotransmission. In integrating these two approaches, recent data are discussed that reveal anomalous recruitment of the brain reward system (including the vmPFC and ventral striatum) during two common cognitive distortions in gambling games: the near-miss effect and the effect of personal control. In games of chance, near-misses and the presence of control have no objective influence on the likelihood of winning. These manipulations appear to harness a reward system that evolved to learn skill-oriented behaviours, and by modulating activity in this system, these cognitive distortions may promote continued, and potentially excessive, gambling. PMID:20026469

  9. Trends in Governance and Decision-Making: A Democratic Analysis with Attention to Application in Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edwards, D. Brent, Jr.

    2010-01-01

    Recent decades have witnessed the rise in popularity of a handful of related yet distinct approaches to governance and decision-making in many different contexts that either relocate the level and location at which decisions are made or how they are made, or both. True for developing as well as developed countries, and for both the public and…

  10. Validating a conceptual model for an inter-professional approach to shared decision making: a mixed methods study

    PubMed Central

    Légaré, France; Stacey, Dawn; Gagnon, Susie; Dunn, Sandy; Pluye, Pierre; Frosch, Dominick; Kryworuchko, Jennifer; Elwyn, Glyn; Gagnon, Marie-Pierre; Graham, Ian D

    2011-01-01

    Rationale, aims and objectives Following increased interest in having inter-professional (IP) health care teams engage patients in decision making, we developed a conceptual model for an IP approach to shared decision making (SDM) in primary care. We assessed the validity of the model with stakeholders in Canada. Methods In 15 individual interviews and 7 group interviews with 79 stakeholders, we asked them to: (1) propose changes to the IP-SDM model; (2) identify barriers and facilitators to the model's implementation in clinical practice; and (3) assess the model using a theory appraisal questionnaire. We performed a thematic analysis of the transcripts and a descriptive analysis of the questionnaires. Results Stakeholders suggested placing the patient at its centre; extending the concept of family to include significant others; clarifying outcomes; highlighting the concept of time; merging the micro, meso and macro levels in one figure; and recognizing the influence of the environment and emotions. The most common barriers identified were time constraints, insufficient resources and an imbalance of power among health professionals. The most common facilitators were education and training in inter-professionalism and SDM, motivation to achieve an IP approach to SDM, and mutual knowledge and understanding of disciplinary roles. Most stakeholders considered that the concepts and relationships between the concepts were clear and rated the model as logical, testable, having clear schematic representation, and being relevant to inter-professional collaboration, SDM and primary care. Conclusions Stakeholders validated the new IP-SDM model for primary care settings and proposed few modifications. Future research should assess if the model helps implement SDM in IP clinical practice. PMID:20695950

  11. Using social network analysis to examine the decision-making process on new vaccine introduction in Nigeria.

    PubMed

    Wonodi, C B; Privor-Dumm, L; Aina, M; Pate, A M; Reis, R; Gadhoke, P; Levine, O S

    2012-05-01

    The decision-making process to introduce new vaccines into national immunization programmes is often complex, involving many stakeholders who provide technical information, mobilize finance, implement programmes and garner political support. Stakeholders may have different levels of interest, knowledge and motivations to introduce new vaccines. Lack of consensus on the priority, public health value or feasibility of adding a new vaccine can delay policy decisions. Efforts to support country-level decision-making have largely focused on establishing global policies and equipping policy makers with the information to support decision-making on new vaccine introduction (NVI). Less attention has been given to understanding the interactions of policy actors and how the distribution of influence affects the policy process and decision-making. Social network analysis (SNA) is a social science technique concerned with explaining social phenomena using the structural and relational features of the network of actors involved. This approach can be used to identify how information is exchanged and who is included or excluded from the process. For this SNA of vaccine decision-making in Nigeria, we interviewed federal and state-level government officials, officers of bilateral and multilateral partner organizations, and other stakeholders such as health providers and the media. Using data culled from those interviews, we performed an SNA in order to map formal and informal relationships and the distribution of influence among vaccine decision-makers, as well as to explore linkages and pathways to stakeholders who can influence critical decisions in the policy process. Our findings indicate a relatively robust engagement of key stakeholders in Nigeria. We hypothesized that economic stakeholders and implementers would be important to ensure sustainable financing and strengthen programme implementation, but some economic and implementation stakeholders did not appear centrally on

  12. A predictive Bayesian approach to risk analysis in health care

    PubMed Central

    Aven, Terje; Eidesen, Karianne

    2007-01-01

    Background The Bayesian approach is now widely recognised as a proper framework for analysing risk in health care. However, the traditional text-book Bayesian approach is in many cases difficult to implement, as it is based on abstract concepts and modelling. Methods The essential points of the risk analyses conducted according to the predictive Bayesian approach are identification of observable quantities, prediction and uncertainty assessments of these quantities, using all the relevant information. The risk analysis summarizes the knowledge and lack of knowledge concerning critical operations and other activities, and give in this way a basis for making rational decisions. Results It is shown that Bayesian risk analysis can be significantly simplified and made more accessible compared to the traditional text-book Bayesian approach by focusing on predictions of observable quantities and performing uncertainty assessments of these quantities using subjective probabilities. Conclusion The predictive Bayesian approach provides a framework for ensuring quality of risk analysis. The approach acknowledges that risk cannot be adequately described and evaluated simply by reference to summarising probabilities. Risk is defined by the combination of possible consequences and associated uncertainties. PMID:17714597

  13. The Counseling, Self-Care, Adherence Approach to Person-Centered Care and Shared Decision Making: Moral Psychology, Executive Autonomy, and Ethics in Multi-Dimensional Care Decisions.

    PubMed

    Herlitz, Anders; Munthe, Christian; Törner, Marianne; Forsander, Gun

    2016-08-01

    This article argues that standard models of person-centred care (PCC) and shared decision making (SDM) rely on simplistic, often unrealistic assumptions of patient capacities that entail that PCC/SDM might have detrimental effects in many applications. We suggest a complementary PCC/SDM approach to ensure that patients are able to execute rational decisions taken jointly with care professionals when performing self-care. Illustrated by concrete examples from a study of adolescent diabetes care, we suggest a combination of moral and psychological considerations to support the claim that standard PCC/SDM threatens to systematically undermine its own goals. This threat is due to a tension between the ethical requirements of SDM in ideal circumstances and more long-term needs actualized by the context of self-care handled by patients with limited capacities for taking responsibility and adhere to their own rational decisions. To improve this situation, we suggest a counseling, self-care, adherence approach to PCC/SDM, where more attention is given to how treatment goals are internalized by patients, how patients perceive choice situations, and what emotional feedback patients are given. This focus may involve less of a concentration on autonomous and rational clinical decision making otherwise stressed in standard PCC/SDM advocacy.

  14. The Counseling, Self-Care, Adherence Approach to Person-Centered Care and Shared Decision Making: Moral Psychology, Executive Autonomy, and Ethics in Multi-Dimensional Care Decisions.

    PubMed

    Herlitz, Anders; Munthe, Christian; Törner, Marianne; Forsander, Gun

    2016-08-01

    This article argues that standard models of person-centred care (PCC) and shared decision making (SDM) rely on simplistic, often unrealistic assumptions of patient capacities that entail that PCC/SDM might have detrimental effects in many applications. We suggest a complementary PCC/SDM approach to ensure that patients are able to execute rational decisions taken jointly with care professionals when performing self-care. Illustrated by concrete examples from a study of adolescent diabetes care, we suggest a combination of moral and psychological considerations to support the claim that standard PCC/SDM threatens to systematically undermine its own goals. This threat is due to a tension between the ethical requirements of SDM in ideal circumstances and more long-term needs actualized by the context of self-care handled by patients with limited capacities for taking responsibility and adhere to their own rational decisions. To improve this situation, we suggest a counseling, self-care, adherence approach to PCC/SDM, where more attention is given to how treatment goals are internalized by patients, how patients perceive choice situations, and what emotional feedback patients are given. This focus may involve less of a concentration on autonomous and rational clinical decision making otherwise stressed in standard PCC/SDM advocacy. PMID:26756477

  15. Modular Approach to Instrumental Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Deming, Richard L.; And Others

    1982-01-01

    To remedy certain deficiencies, an instrument analysis course was reorganized into six one-unit modules: optical spectroscopy, magnetic resonance, separations, electrochemistry, radiochemistry, and computers and interfacing. Selected aspects of the course are discussed. (SK)

  16. Addressing preference heterogeneity in public health policy by combining Cluster Analysis and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: Proof of Method.

    PubMed

    Kaltoft, Mette Kjer; Turner, Robin; Cunich, Michelle; Salkeld, Glenn; Nielsen, Jesper Bo; Dowie, Jack

    2015-01-01

    The use of subgroups based on biological-clinical and socio-demographic variables to deal with population heterogeneity is well-established in public policy. The use of subgroups based on preferences is rare, except when religion based, and controversial. If it were decided to treat subgroup preferences as valid determinants of public policy, a transparent analytical procedure is needed. In this proof of method study we show how public preferences could be incorporated into policy decisions in a way that respects both the multi-criterial nature of those decisions, and the heterogeneity of the population in relation to the importance assigned to relevant criteria. It involves combining Cluster Analysis (CA), to generate the subgroup sets of preferences, with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), to provide the policy framework into which the clustered preferences are entered. We employ three techniques of CA to demonstrate that not only do different techniques produce different clusters, but that choosing among techniques (as well as developing the MCDA structure) is an important task to be undertaken in implementing the approach outlined in any specific policy context. Data for the illustrative, not substantive, application are from a Randomized Controlled Trial of online decision aids for Australian men aged 40-69 years considering Prostate-specific Antigen testing for prostate cancer. We show that such analyses can provide policy-makers with insights into the criterion-specific needs of different subgroups. Implementing CA and MCDA in combination to assist in the development of policies on important health and community issues such as drug coverage, reimbursement, and screening programs, poses major challenges -conceptual, methodological, ethical-political, and practical - but most are exposed by the techniques, not created by them.

  17. Different approaches of spectral analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lacoume, J. L.

    1977-01-01

    Several approaches to the problem of the calculation of spectral power density of a random function from an estimate of the autocorrelation function were studied. A comparative study was presented of these different methods. The principles on which they are based and the hypothesis implied were pointed out. Some indications on the optimization of the length of the estimated correlation function was given. An example of application of the different methods discussed in this paper was included.

  18. An empirical analysis of the corporate call decision

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carlson, Murray Dean

    1998-12-01

    In this thesis we provide insights into the behavior of financial managers of utility companies by studying their decisions to redeem callable preferred shares. In particular, we investigate whether or not an option pricing based model of the call decision, with managers who maximize shareholder value, does a better job of explaining callable preferred share prices and call decisions than do other models of the decision. In order to perform these tests, we extend an empirical technique introduced by Rust (1987) to include the use of information from preferred share prices in addition to the call decisions. The model we develop to value the option embedded in a callable preferred share differs from standard models in two ways. First, as suggested in Kraus (1983), we explicitly account for transaction costs associated with a redemption. Second, we account for state variables that are observed by the decision makers but not by the preferred shareholders. We interpret these unobservable state variables as the benefits and costs associated with a change in capital structure that can accompany a call decision. When we add this variable, our empirical model changes from one which predicts exactly when a share should be called to one which predicts the probability of a call as the function of the observable state. These two modifications of the standard model result in predictions of calls, and therefore of callable preferred share prices, that are consistent with several previously unexplained features of the data; we show that the predictive power of the model is improved in a statistical sense by adding these features to the model. The pricing and call probability functions from our model do a good job of describing call decisions and preferred share prices for several utilities. Using data from shares of the Pacific Gas and Electric Co. (PGE) we obtain reasonable estimates for the transaction costs associated with a call. Using a formal empirical test, we are able to

  19. tropical cyclone risk analysis: a decisive role of its track

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chelsea Nam, C.; Park, Doo-Sun R.; Ho, Chang-Hoi

    2016-04-01

    The tracks of 85 tropical cyclones (TCs) that made landfall to South Korea for the period 1979-2010 are classified into four clusters by using a fuzzy c-means clustering method. The four clusters are characterized by 1) east-short, 2) east-long, 3) west-long, and 4) west-short based on the moving routes around Korean peninsula. We conducted risk comparison analysis for these four clusters regarding their hazards, exposure, and damages. Here, hazard parameters are calculated from two different sources independently, one from the best-track data (BT) and the other from the 60 weather stations over the country (WS). The results show distinct characteristics of the four clusters in terms of the hazard parameters and economic losses (EL), suggesting that there is a clear track-dependency in the overall TC risk. It is appeared that whether there occurred an "effective collision" overweighs the intensity of the TC per se. The EL ranking did not agree with the BT parameters (maximum wind speed, central pressure, or storm radius), but matches to WS parameter (especially, daily accumulated rainfall and TC-influenced period). The west-approaching TCs (i.e. west-long and west-short clusters) generally recorded larger EL than the east-approaching TCs (i.e. east-short and east-long clusters), although the east-long clusters are the strongest in BT point of view. This can be explained through the spatial distribution of the WS parameters and the regional EL maps corresponding to it. West-approaching TCs accompanied heavy rainfall on the southern regions with the helps of the topographic effect on their tracks, and of the extended stay on the Korean Peninsula in their extratropical transition, that were not allowed to the east-approaching TCs. On the other hand, some regions had EL that are not directly proportional to the hazards, and this is partly attributed to spatial disparity in wealth and vulnerability. Correlation analysis also revealed the importance of rainfall; daily

  20. Development of Decision Model for Selection of Appropriate Power Generation System Using Distance Based Approach Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Widiyanto, Anugerah; Kato, Seizo; Maruyama, Naoki

    For solving decision problems in electric generation planning, a matrix operation based deterministic quantitative model called the Distance Based Approach (DBA) has been proposed for comparing the technical-economical and environmental features of various electric power plants. The customized computer code is developed to evaluate the overall function of alternative energy systems from the performance pattern corresponding to the selected energy attributes. For the purpose of exploring the applicability and the effectiveness of the proposed model, the model is applied to decision problems concerning the selection of energy sources for power generation in Japan. The set of nine energy alternatives includes conventional and new energy technologies of oil fired-, natural gas fired-, coal fired-, nuclear power, hydropower, geothermal, solar photovoltaic, wind power and solar thermal plants. Also, a set of criteria for optimized selection includes five areas of concern; energy economy, energy security, environmental protection, socio-economic development and technological aspects for electric power generation. The result will be a ranking of alternative sources of energy based on the Euclidean composite distance of each alternative to the designated optimal source of energy.

  1. A haptic-inspired audio approach for structural health monitoring decision-making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mao, Zhu; Todd, Michael; Mascareñas, David

    2015-03-01

    Haptics is the field at the interface of human touch (tactile sensation) and classification, whereby tactile feedback is used to train and inform a decision-making process. In structural health monitoring (SHM) applications, haptic devices have been introduced and applied in a simplified laboratory scale scenario, in which nonlinearity, representing the presence of damage, was encoded into a vibratory manual interface. In this paper, the "spirit" of haptics is adopted, but here ultrasonic guided wave scattering information is transformed into audio (rather than tactile) range signals. After sufficient training, the structural damage condition, including occurrence and location, can be identified through the encoded audio waveforms. Different algorithms are employed in this paper to generate the transformed audio signals and the performance of each encoding algorithms is compared, and also compared with standard machine learning classifiers. In the long run, the haptic decision-making is aiming to detect and classify structural damages in a more rigorous environment, and approaching a baseline-free fashion with embedded temperature compensation.

  2. A Multicriteria Decision Making Approach Based on Fuzzy Theory and Credibility Mechanism for Logistics Center Location Selection

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Bowen; Jiang, Chengrui

    2014-01-01

    As a hot topic in supply chain management, fuzzy method has been widely used in logistics center location selection to improve the reliability and suitability of the logistics center location selection with respect to the impacts of both qualitative and quantitative factors. However, it does not consider the consistency and the historical assessments accuracy of experts in predecisions. So this paper proposes a multicriteria decision making model based on credibility of decision makers by introducing priority of consistency and historical assessments accuracy mechanism into fuzzy multicriteria decision making approach. In this way, only decision makers who pass the credibility check are qualified to perform the further assessment. Finally, a practical example is analyzed to illustrate how to use the model. The result shows that the fuzzy multicriteria decision making model based on credibility mechanism can improve the reliability and suitability of site selection for the logistics center. PMID:25215319

  3. REMOTE SENSING AND GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS FOR DECISION ANALYSIS IN PUBLIC RESOURCE ADMINISTRATION: A CASE STUDY OF 25 YEARS OF LANDSCAPE CHANGE IN A SOUTHWESTERN WATERSHED

    EPA Science Inventory

    Alternative futures analysis is a scenario-based approach to regional land planning that attempts to synthesize existing scientific information in a format useful to community decision-makers. Typically, this approach attempts to investigate the impacts of several alternative set...

  4. Assessing regional wind energy resources with biological indicators: A decision-analytic approach

    SciTech Connect

    Katzman, M.T. )

    1989-01-01

    The nation's substantial wind-energy resources are unevenly distributed, with highly profitable sites being relatively rare. The absence of long-term wind speed makes siting of wind-energy conversion systems (WECS) extremely risky. Before investing in precise anemometry, wind prospectors may arrive at a first approximation with biological indicators, which are fairly inexpensive. This article describes an effort at calibrating three characteristics of mesquite trees at two sites in Texas, with wind speeds above and below the apparent economic threshold. These indicators differ in their cost of data acquisition. A discriminant analysis indicates the accuracy of these indicators in classifying samples. The value, risks, and cost effectiveness of biological information in assessing regional wind resources is illustrated through decision analysis.

  5. Adaptation and Evaluation of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Model for Lyme Disease Prevention.

    PubMed

    Aenishaenslin, Cécile; Gern, Lise; Michel, Pascal; Ravel, André; Hongoh, Valérie; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Milord, François; Bélanger, Denise

    2015-01-01

    Designing preventive programs relevant to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease (LD) can be complex given the need to include multiple issues and perspectives into prioritizing public health actions. A multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) model was previously used to rank interventions for LD prevention in Quebec, Canada, where the disease is emerging. The aim of the current study was to adapt and evaluate the decision model constructed in Quebec under a different epidemiological context, in Switzerland, where LD has been endemic for the last thirty years. The model adaptation was undertaken with a group of Swiss stakeholders using a participatory approach. The PROMETHEE method was used for multi-criteria analysis. Key elements and results of the MCDA model are described and contrasted with the Quebec model. All criteria and most interventions of the MCDA model developed for LD prevention in Quebec were directly transferable to the Swiss context. Four new decision criteria were added, and the list of proposed interventions was modified. Based on the overall group ranking, interventions targeting human populations were prioritized in the Swiss model, with the top ranked action being the implementation of a large communication campaign. The addition of criteria did not significantly alter the intervention rankings, but increased the capacity of the model to discriminate between highest and lowest ranked interventions. The current study suggests that beyond the specificity of the MCDA models developed for Quebec and Switzerland, their general structure captures the fundamental and common issues that characterize the complexity of vector-borne disease prevention. These results should encourage public health organizations to adapt, use and share MCDA models as an effective and functional approach to enable the integration of multiple perspectives and considerations in the prevention and control of complex public health issues such as Lyme disease or other vector

  6. Adaptation and Evaluation of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Model for Lyme Disease Prevention

    PubMed Central

    Aenishaenslin, Cécile; Gern, Lise; Michel, Pascal; Ravel, André; Hongoh, Valérie; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Milord, François; Bélanger, Denise

    2015-01-01

    Designing preventive programs relevant to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease (LD) can be complex given the need to include multiple issues and perspectives into prioritizing public health actions. A multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) model was previously used to rank interventions for LD prevention in Quebec, Canada, where the disease is emerging. The aim of the current study was to adapt and evaluate the decision model constructed in Quebec under a different epidemiological context, in Switzerland, where LD has been endemic for the last thirty years. The model adaptation was undertaken with a group of Swiss stakeholders using a participatory approach. The PROMETHEE method was used for multi-criteria analysis. Key elements and results of the MCDA model are described and contrasted with the Quebec model. All criteria and most interventions of the MCDA model developed for LD prevention in Quebec were directly transferable to the Swiss context. Four new decision criteria were added, and the list of proposed interventions was modified. Based on the overall group ranking, interventions targeting human populations were prioritized in the Swiss model, with the top ranked action being the implementation of a large communication campaign. The addition of criteria did not significantly alter the intervention rankings, but increased the capacity of the model to discriminate between highest and lowest ranked interventions. The current study suggests that beyond the specificity of the MCDA models developed for Quebec and Switzerland, their general structure captures the fundamental and common issues that characterize the complexity of vector-borne disease prevention. These results should encourage public health organizations to adapt, use and share MCDA models as an effective and functional approach to enable the integration of multiple perspectives and considerations in the prevention and control of complex public health issues such as Lyme disease or other vector

  7. Multi-criteria decision making approaches for quality control of genome-wide association studies.

    PubMed

    Malovini, Alberto; Rognoni, Carla; Puca, Annibale; Bellazzi, Riccardo

    2009-03-01

    Experimental errors in the genotyping phases of a Genome-Wide Association Study (GWAS) can lead to false positive findings and to spurious associations. An appropriate quality control phase could minimize the effects of this kind of errors. Several filtering criteria can be used to perform quality control. Currently, no formal methods have been proposed for taking into account at the same time these criteria and the experimenter's preferences. In this paper we propose two strategies for setting appropriate genotyping rate thresholds for GWAS quality control. These two approaches are based on the Multi-Criteria Decision Making theory. We have applied our method on a real dataset composed by 734 individuals affected by Arterial Hypertension (AH) and 486 nonagenarians without history of AH. The proposed strategies appear to deal with GWAS quality control in a sound way, as they lead to rationalize and make explicit the experimenter's choices thus providing more reproducible results.

  8. The role of emotion in decision-making: a cognitive neuroeconomic approach towards understanding sexual risk behavior.

    PubMed

    Gutnik, Lily A; Hakimzada, A Forogh; Yoskowitz, Nicole A; Patel, Vimla L

    2006-12-01

    Models of decision-making usually focus on cognitive, situational, and socio-cultural variables in accounting for human performance. However, the emotional component is rarely addressed within these models. This paper reviews evidence for the emotional aspect of decision-making and its role within a new framework of investigation, called neuroeconomics. The new approach aims to build a comprehensive theory of decision-making, through the unification of theories and methods from economics, psychology, and neuroscience. In this paper, we review these integrative research methods and their applications to issues of public health, with illustrative examples from our research on young adults' safe sex practices. This approach promises to be valuable as a comprehensively descriptive and possibly, better predictive model for construction and customization of decision support tools for health professionals and consumers. PMID:16759915

  9. A Predictive Analysis Approach to Adaptive Testing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kirisci, Levent; Hsu, Tse-Chi

    The predictive analysis approach to adaptive testing originated in the idea of statistical predictive analysis suggested by J. Aitchison and I.R. Dunsmore (1975). The adaptive testing model proposed is based on parameter-free predictive distribution. Aitchison and Dunsmore define statistical prediction analysis as the use of data obtained from an…

  10. Development of a Decision Support System for Analysis and Solutions of Prolonged Standing in the Workplace

    PubMed Central

    Halim, Isa; Arep, Hambali; Kamat, Seri Rahayu; Abdullah, Rohana; Omar, Abdul Rahman; Ismail, Ahmad Rasdan

    2014-01-01

    Background Prolonged standing has been hypothesized as a vital contributor to discomfort and muscle fatigue in the workplace. The objective of this study was to develop a decision support system that could provide systematic analysis and solutions to minimize the discomfort and muscle fatigue associated with prolonged standing. Methods The integration of object-oriented programming and a Model Oriented Simultaneous Engineering System were used to design the architecture of the decision support system. Results Validation of the decision support system was carried out in two manufacturing companies. The validation process showed that the decision support system produced reliable results. Conclusion The decision support system is a reliable advisory tool for providing analysis and solutions to problems related to the discomfort and muscle fatigue associated with prolonged standing. Further testing of the decision support system is suggested before it is used commercially. PMID:25180141

  11. SNR and noise measurements for medical imaging: I. A practical approach based on statistical decision theory.

    PubMed

    Tapiovaara, M J; Wagner, R F

    1993-01-01

    A method of measuring the image quality of medical imaging equipment is considered within the framework of statistical decision theory. In this approach, images are regarded as random vectors and image quality is defined in the context of the image information available for performing a specified detection or discrimination task. The approach provides a means of measuring image quality, as related to the detection of an image detail of interest, without reference to the actual physical mechanisms involved in image formation and without separate measurements of signal transfer characteristics or image noise. The measurement does not, however, consider deterministic errors in the image; they need a separate evaluation for imaging modalities where they are of concern. The detectability of an image detail can be expressed in terms of the ideal observer's signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) at the decision level. Often a good approximation to this SNR can be obtained by employing sub-optimal observers, whose performance correlates well with the performance of human observers as well. In this paper the measurement of SNR is based on implementing algorithmic realizations of specified observers and analysing their responses while actually performing a specified detection task of interest. Three observers are considered: the ideal prewhitening matched filter, the non-prewhitening matched filter, and the DC-suppressing non-prewhitening matched filter. The construction of the ideal observer requires an impractical amount of data and computing, except for the most simple imaging situations. Therefore, the utilization of sub-optimal observers is advised and their performance in detecting a specified signal is discussed. Measurement of noise and SNR has been extended to include temporally varying images and dynamic imaging systems. PMID:8426870

  12. SCOPE safety-controls optimization by performance evaluation: A systematic approach for safety-related decisions at the Hanford Tank Remediation System. Phase 1, final report

    SciTech Connect

    Bergeron, K.D.; Williams, D.C.; Slezak, S.E.; Young, M.L.

    1996-12-01

    The Department of Energy`s Hanford Tank Waste Remediation system poses a significant challenge for hazard management because of the uncertainty that surrounds many of the variables that must be considered in decisions on safety and control strategies. As a result, site managers must often operate under excessively conservative and expensive assumptions. This report describes a systematic approach to quantifying the uncertainties surrounding the critical parameters in control decisions (e.g., condition of the tanks, kinds of wastes, types of possible accidents) through the use of expert elicitation methods. The results of the elicitations would then be used to build a decision support system and accident analysis model that would allow managers to see how different control strategies would affect the cost and safety of a facility configuration.

  13. A demonstration of the necessity and feasibility of using a clumsy decision analytic approach on wicked environmental problems.

    PubMed

    Stahl, Cynthia; Cimorelli, Alan

    2013-01-01

    Because controversy, conflict, and lawsuits frequently characterize US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) decisions, it is important that USEPA decision makers understand how to evaluate and then make decisions that have simultaneously science-based, social, and political implications. Air quality management is one category of multidimensional decision making at USEPA. The Philadelphia, Pennsylvania metropolitan area experiences unhealthy levels of ozone, fine particulate matter, and air toxics. Many ozone precursors are precursors for particulate matter and certain air toxics. Additionally, some precursors for particulate matter are air toxics. However, air quality management practices have typically evaluated these problems separately. This approach has led to the development of independent (and potentially counterproductive) implementation strategies. This is a methods article about the necessity and feasibility of using a clumsy approach on wicked problems, using an example case study. Air quality management in Philadelphia is a wicked problem. Wicked problems are those where stakeholders define or view the problem differently, there are many different ways to describe the problem (i.e., different dimensions or levels of abstraction), no efficient or optimal solutions exist, and they are often complicated by moral, political, or professional dimensions. The USEPA has developed the multicriteria integrated resource assessment (MIRA) decision analytic approach that engages stakeholder participation through transparency, transdisciplinary learning, and the explicit use of value sets; in other words, a clumsy approach. MIRA's approach to handling technical indicators, expert judgment, and stakeholder values makes it a potentially effective method for tackling wicked environmental problems.

  14. Factors influencing first childbearing timing decisions among men: Path analysis

    PubMed Central

    Kariman, Nourossadat; Amerian, Maliheh; Jannati, Padideh; Salmani, Fatemeh

    2016-01-01

    Background: Factors that influence men’s childbearing intentions have been relatively unexplored in the literature. Objective: This study aimed to determine the influencing factors about the first childbearing timing decisions of men. Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 300 men who were referred to private and governmental healthcare centers in Shahrood, Iran were randomly recruited from April to September 2014. Data were collected using a demographic questionnaire, the Quality of Life Questionnaire; ENRICH Marital Satisfaction Questionnaire, Synder’s Hope Scale, and the Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support. Results: After removing the statistically insignificant paths, men’s age at marriage had the highest direct effect (β=0.86) on their first childbearing decision. Marital satisfaction (β=-0.09), social support (β=0.06), economic status (β=0.06), and quality of life (β=-0.08) were other effective factors on men’s first childbearing decisions. Moreover, marital satisfaction and social support had significant indirect effects on men’s childbearing decisions (β=-0.04 and -0.01, respectively). Conclusion: Many factors, including personal factors (age at marriage and quality of life), family factors (marital satisfaction), and social factors (social support), can affect men’s decision to have a child. Policymakers are hence required to develop strategies to promote the socioeconomic and family conditions of the couples and to encourage them to have as many children as they desire at an appropriate time. PMID:27738661

  15. Strategic rehabilitation planning of piped water networks using multi-criteria decision analysis.

    PubMed

    Scholten, Lisa; Scheidegger, Andreas; Reichert, Peter; Maurer, Max; Mauer, Max; Lienert, Judit

    2014-02-01

    To overcome the difficulties of strategic asset management of water distribution networks, a pipe failure and a rehabilitation model are combined to predict the long-term performance of rehabilitation strategies. Bayesian parameter estimation is performed to calibrate the failure and replacement model based on a prior distribution inferred from three large water utilities in Switzerland. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and scenario planning build the framework for evaluating 18 strategic rehabilitation alternatives under future uncertainty. Outcomes for three fundamental objectives (low costs, high reliability, and high intergenerational equity) are assessed. Exploitation of stochastic dominance concepts helps to identify twelve non-dominated alternatives and local sensitivity analysis of stakeholder preferences is used to rank them under four scenarios. Strategies with annual replacement of 1.5-2% of the network perform reasonably well under all scenarios. In contrast, the commonly used reactive replacement is not recommendable unless cost is the only relevant objective. Exemplified for a small Swiss water utility, this approach can readily be adapted to support strategic asset management for any utility size and based on objectives and preferences that matter to the respective decision makers.

  16. Application of Effective Discharge Analysis to Environmental Flow Decision-Making.

    PubMed

    McKay, S Kyle; Freeman, Mary C; Covich, Alan P

    2016-06-01

    Well-informed river management decisions rely on an explicit statement of objectives, repeatable analyses, and a transparent system for assessing trade-offs. These components may then be applied to compare alternative operational regimes for water resource infrastructure (e.g., diversions, locks, and dams). Intra- and inter-annual hydrologic variability further complicates these already complex environmental flow decisions. Effective discharge analysis (developed in studies of geomorphology) is a powerful tool for integrating temporal variability of flow magnitude and associated ecological consequences. Here, we adapt the effectiveness framework to include multiple elements of the natural flow regime (i.e., timing, duration, and rate-of-change) as well as two flow variables. We demonstrate this analytical approach using a case study of environmental flow management based on long-term (60 years) daily discharge records in the Middle Oconee River near Athens, GA, USA. Specifically, we apply an existing model for estimating young-of-year fish recruitment based on flow-dependent metrics to an effective discharge analysis that incorporates hydrologic variability and multiple focal taxa. We then compare three alternative methods of environmental flow provision. Percentage-based withdrawal schemes outcompete other environmental flow methods across all levels of water withdrawal and ecological outcomes.

  17. Application of effective discharge analysis to environmental flow decision-making

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McKay, S. Kyle; Freeman, Mary C.; Covich, A.P.

    2016-01-01

    Well-informed river management decisions rely on an explicit statement of objectives, repeatable analyses, and a transparent system for assessing trade-offs. These components may then be applied to compare alternative operational regimes for water resource infrastructure (e.g., diversions, locks, and dams). Intra- and inter-annual hydrologic variability further complicates these already complex environmental flow decisions. Effective discharge analysis (developed in studies of geomorphology) is a powerful tool for integrating temporal variability of flow magnitude and associated ecological consequences. Here, we adapt the effectiveness framework to include multiple elements of the natural flow regime (i.e., timing, duration, and rate-of-change) as well as two flow variables. We demonstrate this analytical approach using a case study of environmental flow management based on long-term (60 years) daily discharge records in the Middle Oconee River near Athens, GA, USA. Specifically, we apply an existing model for estimating young-of-year fish recruitment based on flow-dependent metrics to an effective discharge analysis that incorporates hydrologic variability and multiple focal taxa. We then compare three alternative methods of environmental flow provision. Percentage-based withdrawal schemes outcompete other environmental flow methods across all levels of water withdrawal and ecological outcomes.

  18. Application of Effective Discharge Analysis to Environmental Flow Decision-Making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McKay, S. Kyle; Freeman, Mary C.; Covich, Alan P.

    2016-06-01

    Well-informed river management decisions rely on an explicit statement of objectives, repeatable analyses, and a transparent system for assessing trade-offs. These components may then be applied to compare alternative operational regimes for water resource infrastructure (e.g., diversions, locks, and dams). Intra- and inter-annual hydrologic variability further complicates these already complex environmental flow decisions. Effective discharge analysis (developed in studies of geomorphology) is a powerful tool for integrating temporal variability of flow magnitude and associated ecological consequences. Here, we adapt the effectiveness framework to include multiple elements of the natural flow regime (i.e., timing, duration, and rate-of-change) as well as two flow variables. We demonstrate this analytical approach using a case study of environmental flow management based on long-term (60 years) daily discharge records in the Middle Oconee River near Athens, GA, USA. Specifically, we apply an existing model for estimating young-of-year fish recruitment based on flow-dependent metrics to an effective discharge analysis that incorporates hydrologic variability and multiple focal taxa. We then compare three alternative methods of environmental flow provision. Percentage-based withdrawal schemes outcompete other environmental flow methods across all levels of water withdrawal and ecological outcomes.

  19. Application of Effective Discharge Analysis to Environmental Flow Decision-Making.

    PubMed

    McKay, S Kyle; Freeman, Mary C; Covich, Alan P

    2016-06-01

    Well-informed river management decisions rely on an explicit statement of objectives, repeatable analyses, and a transparent system for assessing trade-offs. These components may then be applied to compare alternative operational regimes for water resource infrastructure (e.g., diversions, locks, and dams). Intra- and inter-annual hydrologic variability further complicates these already complex environmental flow decisions. Effective discharge analysis (developed in studies of geomorphology) is a powerful tool for integrating temporal variability of flow magnitude and associated ecological consequences. Here, we adapt the effectiveness framework to include multiple elements of the natural flow regime (i.e., timing, duration, and rate-of-change) as well as two flow variables. We demonstrate this analytical approach using a case study of environmental flow management based on long-term (60 years) daily discharge records in the Middle Oconee River near Athens, GA, USA. Specifically, we apply an existing model for estimating young-of-year fish recruitment based on flow-dependent metrics to an effective discharge analysis that incorporates hydrologic variability and multiple focal taxa. We then compare three alternative methods of environmental flow provision. Percentage-based withdrawal schemes outcompete other environmental flow methods across all levels of water withdrawal and ecological outcomes. PMID:26961419

  20. Safer approaches and landings: A multivariate analysis of critical factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heinrich, Durwood J.

    The approach-and-landing phases of flight represent 27% of mission time while resulting in 61 of the accidents and 39% of the fatalities. The landing phase itself represents only 1% of flight time but claims 45% of the accidents. Inadequate crew situation awareness (SA), crew resource management (CRM), and crew decision-making (DM) have been implicated in 51%, 63%, and 73% respectively of these accidents. The human factors constructs of SA, CRM, and DM were explored; a comprehensive definition of SA was proposed; and a "proactive defense" safety strategy was recommended. Data from a 1997 analysis of worldwide fatal accidents by the Flight Safety Foundation (FSF) Approach-and-Landing Accident Reduction (ALAR) Task Force was used to isolate crew- and weather-related causal factors that lead to approach-and-landing accidents (ALAs). Logistic regression and decision tree analysis were used on samplings of NASA's Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) incident records ("near misses") and the National Transportation Safety Board's (NTSB) accident reports to examine hypotheses regarding factors and factor combinations that can dramatically increase the opportunity for accidents. An effective scale of risk factors was introduced for use by crews to proactively counter safety-related error-chain situations.

  1. Releases of whooping cranes to the Florida nonmigratory flock: a structured decision-making approach: report to the International Whooping Crane Recovery Team, September 22, 2008

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moore, Clinton T.; Converse, Sarah J.; Folk, Martin J.; Boughton, Robin; Brooks, Bill; French, John B.; O'Meara, Timothy; Putnam, Michael; Rodgers, James; Spalding, Marilyn

    2008-01-01

    We used a structured decision-making approach to inform the decision of whether the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission should request of the International Whooping Crane Recovery Team that additional whooping crane chicks be released into the Florida Non-Migratory Population (FNMP). Structured decision-making is an application of decision science that strives to produce transparent, replicable, and defensible decisions that recognize the appropriate roles of management policy and science in decision-making. We present a multi-objective decision framework, where management objectives include successful establishment of a whooping crane population in Florida, minimization of costs, positive public relations, information gain, and providing a supply of captive-reared birds to alternative crane release projects, such as the Eastern Migratory Population. We developed models to predict the outcome relative to each of these objectives under 29 different scenarios of the release methodology used from 1993 to 2004, including options of no further releases and variable numbers of releases per year over the next 5-30 years. In particular, we developed a detailed set of population projection models, which make substantially different predictions about the probability of successful establishment of the FNMP. We used expert elicitation to develop prior model weights (measures of confidence in population model predictions); the results of the population model weighting and modelaveraging exercise indicated that the probability of successful establishment of the FNMP ranged from 9% if no additional releases are made, to as high as 41% with additional releases. We also used expert elicitation to develop weights (relative values) on the set of identified objectives, and we then used a formal optimization technique for identifying the optimal decision, which considers the tradeoffs between objectives. The optimal decision was identified as release of 3 cohorts (24

  2. Decision making in healthy participants on the Iowa Gambling Task: new insights from an operant approach

    PubMed Central

    Bull, Peter N.; Tippett, Lynette J.; Addis, Donna Rose

    2015-01-01

    The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) has contributed greatly to the study of affective decision making. However, researchers have observed high inter-study and inter-individual variability in IGT performance in healthy participants, and many are classified as impaired using standard criteria. Additionally, while decision-making deficits are often attributed to atypical sensitivity to reward and/or punishment, the IGT lacks an integrated sensitivity measure. Adopting an operant perspective, two experiments were conducted to explore these issues. In Experiment 1, 50 healthy participants completed a 200-trial version of the IGT which otherwise closely emulated Bechara et al.'s (1999) original computer task. Group data for Trials 1–100 closely replicated Bechara et al.'s original findings of high net scores and preferences for advantageous decks, suggesting that implementations that depart significantly from Bechara's standard IGT contribute to inter-study variability. During Trials 101–200, mean net scores improved significantly and the percentage of participants meeting the “impaired” criterion was halved. An operant-style stability criterion applied to individual data revealed this was likely related to individual differences in learning rate. Experiment 2 used a novel operant card task—the Auckland Card Task (ACT)—to derive quantitative estimates of sensitivity using the generalized matching law. Relative to individuals who mastered the IGT, persistent poor performers on the IGT exhibited significantly lower sensitivity to magnitudes (but not frequencies) of rewards and punishers on the ACT. Overall, our findings demonstrate the utility of operant-style analysis of IGT data and the potential of applying operant concurrent-schedule procedures to the study of human decision making. PMID:25904884

  3. Decisions, Science, and Values: Crafting Regulatory Alternatives Analysis.

    PubMed

    Malloy, Timothy; Blake, Ann; Linkov, Igor; Sinsheimer, Peter

    2015-12-01

    Emerging "prevention-based" approaches to chemical regulation seek to minimize the use of toxic chemicals by mandating or directly incentivizing the adoption of viable safer alternative chemicals or processes. California and Maine are beginning to implement such programs, requiring manufacturers of consumer products containing certain chemicals of concern to identify and evaluate potential safer alternatives. In the European Union, the REACH program imposes similar obligations on manufacturers of certain substances of very high concern. Effective prevention-based regulation requires regulatory alternatives analysis (RAA), a methodology for comparing and evaluating the regulated chemical or process and its alternatives across a range of relevant criteria. RAA has both public and private dimensions. To a significant degree, alternatives analysis is an aspect of product design; that is, the process by which private industry designs the goods it sells. Accordingly, an RAA method should reflect the attributes of well-crafted product design tools used by businesses. But RAA adds health and environmental objectives to the mix of concerns taken into account by the product designer. Moreover, as part of a prevention-based regulatory regime, it implicates important public values such as legitimacy, equity, public engagement, and accountability. Thus, an RAA should reflect both private standards and public values, and be evaluated against them. This article adopts that perspective, identifying an integrated set of design principles for RAA, and illustrating the application of those principles. PMID:26299695

  4. Conceptualizing Surrogate Decision-Making at End of Life in the Intensive Care Unit using Cognitive Task Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Dionne-Odom, J. Nicholas; Willis, Danny G.; Bakitas, Marie; Crandall, Beth; Grace, Pamela J.

    2014-01-01

    Background Surrogate decision-makers (SDMs) face difficult decisions at end of life (EOL) for decisionally incapacitated intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Purpose Identify and describe the underlying psychological processes of surrogate decision-making for adults at EOL in the ICU. Method Qualitative case study design using a cognitive task analysis (CTA) interviewing approach. Participants were recruited from October 2012 to June 2013 from an academic tertiary medical center’s ICU located in the rural Northeastern United States. Nineteen SDMs for patients who had died in the ICU completed in-depth semi-structured CTA interviews. Discussion The conceptual framework formulated from data analysis reveals that three underlying, iterative, psychological dimensions: gist impressions, distressing emotions, and moral intuitions impact a SDM’s judgment about the acceptability of either the patient’s medical treatments or his or her condition. Conclusion The framework offers initial insights about the underlying psychological processes of surrogate decision-making and may facilitate enhanced decision support for SDMs. PMID:25982772

  5. Portfolio theory and the alternative decision rule of cost-effectiveness analysis: theoretical and practical considerations.

    PubMed

    Sendi, Pedram; Al, Maiwenn J; Gafni, Amiram; Birch, Stephen

    2004-05-01

    Bridges and Terris (Soc. Sci. Med. (2004)) critique our paper on the alternative decision rule of economic evaluation in the presence of uncertainty and constrained resources within the context of a portfolio of health care programs (Sendi et al. Soc. Sci. Med. 57 (2003) 2207). They argue that by not adopting a formal portfolio theory approach we overlook the optimal solution. We show that these arguments stem from a fundamental misunderstanding of the alternative decision rule of economic evaluation. In particular, the portfolio theory approach advocated by Bridges and Terris is based on the same theoretical assumptions that the alternative decision rule set out to relax. Moreover, Bridges and Terris acknowledge that the proposed portfolio theory approach may not identify the optimal solution to resource allocation problems. Hence, it provides neither theoretical nor practical improvements to the proposed alternative decision rule.

  6. Radiological emergency response for community agencies with cognitive task analysis, risk analysis, and decision support framework.

    PubMed

    Meyer, Travis S; Muething, Joseph Z; Lima, Gustavo Amoras Souza; Torres, Breno Raemy Rangel; del Rosario, Trystyn Keia; Gomes, José Orlando; Lambert, James H

    2012-01-01

    Radiological nuclear emergency responders must be able to coordinate evacuation and relief efforts following the release of radioactive material into populated areas. In order to respond quickly and effectively to a nuclear emergency, high-level coordination is needed between a number of large, independent organizations, including police, military, hazmat, and transportation authorities. Given the complexity, scale, time-pressure, and potential negative consequences inherent in radiological emergency responses, tracking and communicating information that will assist decision makers during a crisis is crucial. The emergency response team at the Angra dos Reis nuclear power facility, located outside of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, presently conducts emergency response simulations once every two years to prepare organizational leaders for real-life emergency situations. However, current exercises are conducted without the aid of electronic or software tools, resulting in possible cognitive overload and delays in decision-making. This paper describes the development of a decision support system employing systems methodologies, including cognitive task analysis and human-machine interface design. The decision support system can aid the coordination team by automating cognitive functions and improving information sharing. A prototype of the design will be evaluated by plant officials in Brazil and incorporated to a future trial run of a response simulation.

  7. Radiological emergency response for community agencies with cognitive task analysis, risk analysis, and decision support framework.

    PubMed

    Meyer, Travis S; Muething, Joseph Z; Lima, Gustavo Amoras Souza; Torres, Breno Raemy Rangel; del Rosario, Trystyn Keia; Gomes, José Orlando; Lambert, James H

    2012-01-01

    Radiological nuclear emergency responders must be able to coordinate evacuation and relief efforts following the release of radioactive material into populated areas. In order to respond quickly and effectively to a nuclear emergency, high-level coordination is needed between a number of large, independent organizations, including police, military, hazmat, and transportation authorities. Given the complexity, scale, time-pressure, and potential negative consequences inherent in radiological emergency responses, tracking and communicating information that will assist decision makers during a crisis is crucial. The emergency response team at the Angra dos Reis nuclear power facility, located outside of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, presently conducts emergency response simulations once every two years to prepare organizational leaders for real-life emergency situations. However, current exercises are conducted without the aid of electronic or software tools, resulting in possible cognitive overload and delays in decision-making. This paper describes the development of a decision support system employing systems methodologies, including cognitive task analysis and human-machine interface design. The decision support system can aid the coordination team by automating cognitive functions and improving information sharing. A prototype of the design will be evaluated by plant officials in Brazil and incorporated to a future trial run of a response simulation. PMID:22317163

  8. A decision-theoretic approach to the display of information for time-critical decisions: The Vista project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Horvitz, Eric; Ruokangas, Corinne; Srinivas, Sampath; Barry, Matthew

    1993-01-01

    We describe a collaborative research and development effort between the Palo Alto Laboratory of the Rockwell Science Center, Rockwell Space Operations Company, and the Propulsion Systems Section of NASA JSC to design computational tools that can manage the complexity of information displayed to human operators in high-stakes, time-critical decision contexts. We shall review an application from NASA Mission Control and describe how we integrated a probabilistic diagnostic model and a time-dependent utility model, with techniques for managing the complexity of computer displays. Then, we shall describe the behavior of VPROP, a system constructed to demonstrate promising display-management techniques. Finally, we shall describe our current research directions on the Vista 2 follow-on project.

  9. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making

    PubMed Central

    Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E.

    2015-01-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people’s confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality. PMID:26517475

  10. Situated Analysis of Team Handball Players' Decisions: An Exploratory Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lenzen, Benoit; Theunissen, Catherine; Cloes, Marc

    2009-01-01

    This exploratory study aimed to investigate elements involved in decision making in team handball live situations and to provide coaches and educators with teaching recommendations. The study was positioned within the framework of the situated-action paradigm of which two aspects were of particular interest for this project: (a) the relationship…

  11. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.

    PubMed

    Aitchison, Laurence; Bang, Dan; Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E

    2015-10-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people's confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality. PMID:26517475

  12. Ethanol or Biodiesel? A Systems-Analysis Decision

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dinan, Frank; Stabler, Tom

    2008-01-01

    This case study stresses the need to broadly consider an entire system, including all of the energy inputs and outputs involved, to determine the real efficiency of that system. It also asks its student audience to consider the role that scientific input plays in policy decision-making processes. It emphasizes that, despite the importance of this…

  13. An analysis of CPR decision-making by elderly patients.

    PubMed Central

    Sayers, G M; Schofield, I; Aziz, M

    1997-01-01

    Traditionally clinicians have determined their patients' resuscitation status without consultation. This has been condemned as morally indefensible in cases where not for resuscitation (NFR) orders are based on quality of life considerations and when the patient's true wishes are not known. Such instances would encompass most resuscitation decisions in elderly patients. Having previously involved patients in CPR decision-making, we chose formally to explore the reasons behind the choices made. Although the patients were not upset, and readily decided at the time of initial consultation, on later analysing the decision-making we found poor understanding of the procedure, poor recall of information given and in some cases evidence of harm. This may be attributed to impaired decision-making capacity of elderly hospitalised patients as previously shown, or to the discomfort precipitated by having to contemplate the apparent immediacy of cardiac arrest by these patients. We propose that subscribing to autonomy as a general principle needs to be balanced against particular cases where distress may be caused by, or result in, diminished competence and limited autonomy. PMID:9279741

  14. Marital Decision Making: A Language-Action Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Krueger, Dorothy Lenk

    A study analyzed the decision making process of a dual-career married couple debating whether they should relocate for his or her career. Their interaction was examined and interpreted through multiple components of conversational context, such as institutional constraints influencing the couple, their shared knowledge and perceptions, the…

  15. Managerial Analysis and Decision Support: A Guidebook and Case Studies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Association of College and University Business Officers (NJ3), 2004

    2004-01-01

    Developed and edited by the National Association of College and University Business Officers' (NACUBO's) Accounting Principles Council, this guidebook, written by highly experienced, seasoned college and university leaders, is designed to help readers make sense of today's world and provide the right tools to make the right decisions. The book,…

  16. Counseling Students' Decision Making Regarding Teaching Effectiveness: A Conjoint Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pietrzak, Dale; Duncan, Kelly; Korcuska, James S.

    2008-01-01

    The authors examined the relative importance of 4 attributes of decision making for student evaluation of teaching effectiveness: perceived knowledge base of the professor, professor's delivery style, course organization, and course workload. Participants were 234 counseling graduate students from 6 midwestern universities in the United States.…

  17. Multi-objective Decision Based Available Transfer Capability in Deregulated Power System Using Heuristic Approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pasam, Gopi Krishna; Manohar, T. Gowri

    2015-07-01

    Determination of available transfer capability (ATC) requires the use of experience, intuition and exact judgment in order to meet several significant aspects in the deregulated environment. Based on these points, this paper proposes two heuristic approaches to compute ATC. The first proposed heuristic algorithm integrates the five methods known as continuation repeated power flow, repeated optimal power flow, radial basis function neural network, back propagation neural network and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system to obtain ATC. The second proposed heuristic model is used to obtain multiple ATC values. Out of these, a specific ATC value will be selected based on a number of social, economic, deregulated environmental constraints and related to specific applications like optimization, on-line monitoring, and ATC forecasting known as multi-objective decision based optimal ATC. The validity of results obtained through these proposed methods are scrupulously verified on various buses of the IEEE 24-bus reliable test system. The results presented and derived conclusions in this paper are very useful for planning, operation, maintaining of reliable power in any power system and its monitoring in an on-line environment of deregulated power system. In this way, the proposed heuristic methods would contribute the best possible approach to assess multiple objective ATC using integrated methods.

  18. Multi-objective Decision Based Available Transfer Capability in Deregulated Power System Using Heuristic Approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pasam, Gopi Krishna; Manohar, T. Gowri

    2016-09-01

    Determination of available transfer capability (ATC) requires the use of experience, intuition and exact judgment in order to meet several significant aspects in the deregulated environment. Based on these points, this paper proposes two heuristic approaches to compute ATC. The first proposed heuristic algorithm integrates the five methods known as continuation repeated power flow, repeated optimal power flow, radial basis function neural network, back propagation neural network and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system to obtain ATC. The second proposed heuristic model is used to obtain multiple ATC values. Out of these, a specific ATC value will be selected based on a number of social, economic, deregulated environmental constraints and related to specific applications like optimization, on-line monitoring, and ATC forecasting known as multi-objective decision based optimal ATC. The validity of results obtained through these proposed methods are scrupulously verified on various buses of the IEEE 24-bus reliable test system. The results presented and derived conclusions in this paper are very useful for planning, operation, maintaining of reliable power in any power system and its monitoring in an on-line environment of deregulated power system. In this way, the proposed heuristic methods would contribute the best possible approach to assess multiple objective ATC using integrated methods.

  19. Alternative Approaches to Modeling the Individual Enlistment Decision: A Literature Review. Technical Report 738.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zirk, Deborah A.; And Others

    Findings of previous scientific decision-making literature are reviewed in an effort to specify a model depicting the many facets of the individual military enlistment decision. Theories and/or models reviewed include decision theory, social judgment theory, information integration theory, conjoint measurement/unfolding theory, cognitive decision…

  20. Material degradation analysis and maintenance decisions based on material condition monitoring during in-service inspections

    SciTech Connect

    Yacout, A.M.; Orechwa, Y.

    1996-03-01

    The degradation of the material in critical components is shown to be an effective measure which can be used to compute the risk adjusted economic penalty associated with different maintenance decisions. The approach of estimating the probability, with confidence interval, of the time that a prescribed degradation level is exceeded is shown to be practical, as demonstrated in the analysis of irradiated fuel cladding. The methodology for the estimation of the probability is predicated on the existence of a parsimonious and robust mixed-effects model of the evolution of the degradation. This model, in general, relates measured surrogates of the degradation level to computed or measured variables, which characterize the environment during the operating history of the component. We propose and demonstrate the efficacy of using an artificial neural network, constructed via a genetic supervisor, as an aid in developing the requisite mixed-effects model and testing its continued validity as new data are obtained.

  1. Decision analysis and drug development portfolio management: uncovering the real options value of your projects.

    PubMed

    Rosati, Nicoletta

    2002-04-01

    Project selection and portfolio management are particularly challenging in the pharmaceutical industry due to the high risk - high stake nature of the drug development process. In the recent years, scholars and industry experts have agreed that traditional Net-Present-Value evaluation of the projects fails to capture the value of managerial flexibility, and encouraged adopting a real options approach to recover the missed value. In this paper, we take a closer look at the drug development process and at the indices currently used to rank projects. We discuss the economic value of information and of real options arising in drug development and present decision analysis as an ideal framework for the implementation of real options valuation. PMID:19807328

  2. A flexible and national scale approach to coastal decision tools incorporating sea level rise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strauss, B.; Kulp, S. A.; Tebaldi, C.

    2014-12-01

    Climate science and sea level models constantly evolve. In this context, maps and analyses of exposure to sea level rise - or coastal flooding aggravated by rise - quickly fall out of date when based upon a specific model projection or projection set. At the same time, policy makers and planners prefer simple and stable risk assessments for their future planning. Here, using Climate Central's Surging Seas Risk Finder, we describe and illustrate a decision tool framework that separates the spatial and temporal dimensions of coastal exposure in order to help alleviate this tension. The Risk Finder presents local maps and exposure analyses simply as functions of a discrete set of local water levels. In turn, each water level may be achieved at different times, with different probabilities, according to different combinations of sea level change, storm surge and tide. This temporal dimension is expressed in a separate module of the Risk Finder, so that users may explore the probabilities and time frames of different water levels, as a function of different sea level models and emissions scenarios. With such an approach, decision-makers can quickly get a sense of the range of risks for each water level given current understanding. At the same time, the models and scenarios can easily be updated over time as the science evolves, while avoiding the labor of regenerating maps and exposure analyses. In this talk, we will also use the tool to highlight key findings from a new U.S. national assessment of sea level and coastal flood risk. For example, more than 2.5 million people and $500 billion dollars of property value sit on land less than 2 meters above the high tide line in Florida alone.

  3. A decision support system prototype including human factors based on the TOGA meta-theory approach

    SciTech Connect

    Cappelli, M.; Memmi, F.; Gadomski, A. M.; Sepielli, M.

    2012-07-01

    The human contribution to the risk of operation of complex technological systems is often not negligible and sometimes tends to become significant, as shown by many reports on incidents and accidents occurred in the past inside Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). An error of a human operator of a NPP can derive by both omission and commission. For instance, complex commission errors can also lead to significant catastrophic technological accidents, as for the case of the Three Mile Island accident. Typically, the problem is analyzed by focusing on the single event chain that has provoked the incident or accident. What is needed is a general framework able to include as many parameters as possible, i.e. both technological and human factors. Such a general model could allow to envisage an omission or commission error before it can happen or, alternatively, suggest preferred actions to do in order to take countermeasures to neutralize the effect of the error before it becomes critical. In this paper, a preliminary Decision Support System (DSS) based on the so-called (-) TOGA meta-theory approach is presented. The application of such a theory to the management of nuclear power plants has been presented in the previous ICAPP 2011. Here, a human factor simulator prototype is proposed in order to include the effect of human errors in the decision path. The DSS has been developed using a TRIGA research reactor as reference plant, and implemented using the LabVIEW programming environment and the Finite State Machine (FSM) model The proposed DSS shows how to apply the Universal Reasoning Paradigm (URP) and the Universal Management Paradigm (UMP) to a real plant context. The DSS receives inputs from instrumentation data and gives as output a suggested decision. It is obtained as the result of an internal elaborating process based on a performance function. The latter, describes the degree of satisfaction and efficiency, which are dependent on the level of responsibility related to

  4. Decision Support Systems for Academic Administration.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moore, Laurence J.; Greenwood, Allen G.

    1984-01-01

    The history and features of Decision Support Systems (DSS) and use of the approach by academic administrators are discussed. The objective of DSS is to involve the manager/decision maker in the decision-analysis process while simultaneously relieving that person of the burden of developing and performing detailed analysis. DSS represents a…

  5. Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)

    SciTech Connect

    Gajewski, S.; Glantz, C.; Harper, B.; Bilyard, G.; Miller, P.

    1995-10-01

    Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare.

  6. An Efficient Soft Set-Based Approach for Conflict Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Sutoyo, Edi; Mungad, Mungad; Hamid, Suraya; Herawan, Tutut

    2016-01-01

    Conflict analysis has been used as an important tool in economic, business, governmental and political dispute, games, management negotiations, military operations and etc. There are many mathematical formal models have been proposed to handle conflict situations and one of the most popular is rough set theory. With the ability to handle vagueness from the conflict data set, rough set theory has been successfully used. However, computational time is still an issue when determining the certainty, coverage, and strength of conflict situations. In this paper, we present an alternative approach to handle conflict situations, based on some ideas using soft set theory. The novelty of the proposed approach is that, unlike in rough set theory that uses decision rules, it is based on the concept of co-occurrence of parameters in soft set theory. We illustrate the proposed approach by means of a tutorial example of voting analysis in conflict situations. Furthermore, we elaborate the proposed approach on real world dataset of political conflict in Indonesian Parliament. We show that, the proposed approach achieves lower computational time as compared to rough set theory of up to 3.9%. PMID:26928627

  7. An Efficient Soft Set-Based Approach for Conflict Analysis.

    PubMed

    Sutoyo, Edi; Mungad, Mungad; Hamid, Suraya; Herawan, Tutut

    2016-01-01

    Conflict analysis has been used as an important tool in economic, business, governmental and political dispute, games, management negotiations, military operations and etc. There are many mathematical formal models have been proposed to handle conflict situations and one of the most popular is rough set theory. With the ability to handle vagueness from the conflict data set, rough set theory has been successfully used. However, computational time is still an issue when determining the certainty, coverage, and strength of conflict situations. In this paper, we present an alternative approach to handle conflict situations, based on some ideas using soft set theory. The novelty of the proposed approach is that, unlike in rough set theory that uses decision rules, it is based on the concept of co-occurrence of parameters in soft set theory. We illustrate the proposed approach by means of a tutorial example of voting analysis in conflict situations. Furthermore, we elaborate the proposed approach on real world dataset of political conflict in Indonesian Parliament. We show that, the proposed approach achieves lower computational time as compared to rough set theory of up to 3.9%.

  8. Analysis of acid rain patterns in northeastern China using a decision tree method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xiuying; Jiang, Hong; Jin, Jiaxin; Xu, Xiaohua; Zhang, Qingxin

    2012-01-01

    Acid rain is a major regional-scale environmental problem in China. To control acid rain pollution and to protect the ecological environment, it is urgent to document acid rain patterns in various regions of China. Taking Liaoning Province as the study area, the present work focused on the spatial and temporal variations of acid rains in northeastern China. It presents a means for predicting the occurrence of acid rain using geographic position, terrain characteristics, routinely monitored meteorological factors and column concentrations of atmospheric SO 2 and NO 2. The analysis applies a decision tree approach to the foregoing observation data. Results showed that: (1) acid rain occurred at 17 stations among the 81 monitoring stations in Liaoning Province, with the frequency of acid rain from 0 to 84.38%; (2) summer had the most acid rain occurrences followed by spring and autumn, and the winter had the least; (3) the total accuracy for the simulation of precipitation pH (pH ≤ 4.5, 4.5 < pH ≤ 5.6, and pH > 5.6) was 98.04% using the decision tree method known as C5. The simulation results also indicated that the distance to coastline, elevation, wind direction, wind speed, rainfall amount, atmospheric pressure, and the precursors of acid rain all have a strong influence on the occurrence of acid rains in northeastern China.

  9. Warfighter decision making performance analysis as an investment priority driver

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thornley, David J.; Dean, David F.; Kirk, James C.

    2010-04-01

    Estimating the relative value of alternative tactics, techniques and procedures (TTP) and information systems requires measures of the costs and benefits of each, and methods for combining and comparing those measures. The NATO Code of Best Practice for Command and Control Assessment explains that decision making quality would ideally be best assessed on outcomes. Lessons learned in practice can be assessed statistically to support this, but experimentation with alternate measures in live conflict is undesirable. To this end, the development of practical experimentation to parameterize effective constructive simulation and analytic modelling for system utility prediction is desirable. The Land Battlespace Systems Department of Dstl has modeled human development of situational awareness to support constructive simulation by empirically discovering how evidence is weighed according to circumstance, personality, training and briefing. The human decision maker (DM) provides the backbone of the information processing activity associated with military engagements because of inherent uncertainty associated with combat operations. To develop methods for representing the process in order to assess equipment and non-technological interventions such as training and TTPs we are developing componentized or modularized timed analytic stochastic model components and instruments as part of a framework to support quantitative assessment of intelligence production and consumption methods in a human decision maker-centric mission space. In this paper, we formulate an abstraction of the human intelligence fusion process from the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory's (Dstl's) INCIDER model to include in our framework, and synthesize relevant cost and benefit characteristics.

  10. Model-based decision analysis of remedial alternatives using info-gap theory and Agent-Based Analysis of Global Uncertainty and Sensitivity (ABAGUS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harp, D.; Vesselinov, V. V.

    2011-12-01

    A newly developed methodology to model-based decision analysis is presented. The methodology incorporates a sampling approach, referred to as Agent-Based Analysis of Global Uncertainty and Sensitivity (ABAGUS; Harp & Vesselinov; 2011), that efficiently collects sets of acceptable solutions (i.e. acceptable model parameter sets) for different levels of a model performance metric representing the consistency of model predictions to observations. In this case, the performance metric is based on model residuals (i.e. discrepancies between observations and simulations). ABAGUS collects acceptable solutions from a discretized parameter space and stores them in a KD-tree for efficient retrieval. The parameter space domain (parameter minimum/maximum ranges) and discretization are predefined. On subsequent visits to collected locations, agents are provided with a modified value of the performance metric, and the model solution is not recalculated. The modified values of the performance metric sculpt the response surface (convexities become concavities), repulsing agents from collected regions. This promotes global exploration of the parameter space and discourages reinvestigation of regions of previously collected acceptable solutions. The resulting sets of acceptable solutions are formulated into a decision analysis using concepts from info-gap theory (Ben-Haim, 2006). Using info-gap theory, the decision robustness and opportuneness are quantified, providing measures of the immunity to failure and windfall, respectively, of alternative decisions. The approach is intended for cases where the information is extremely limited, resulting in non-probabilistic uncertainties concerning model properties such as boundary and initial conditions, model parameters, conceptual model elements, etc. The information provided by this analysis is weaker than the information provided by probabilistic decision analyses (i.e. posterior parameter distributions are not produced), however, this

  11. Decision Analysis Methods Used to Make Appropriate Investments in Human Exploration Capabilities and Technologies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams-Byrd, Julie; Arney, Dale C.; Hay, Jason; Reeves, John D.; Craig, Douglas

    2016-01-01

    NASA is transforming human spaceflight. The Agency is shifting from an exploration-based program with human activities in low Earth orbit (LEO) and targeted robotic missions in deep space to a more sustainable and integrated pioneering approach. Through pioneering, NASA seeks to address national goals to develop the capacity for people to work, learn, operate, live, and thrive safely beyond Earth for extended periods of time. However, pioneering space involves daunting technical challenges of transportation, maintaining health, and enabling crew productivity for long durations in remote, hostile, and alien environments. Prudent investments in capability and technology developments, based on mission need, are critical for enabling a campaign of human exploration missions. There are a wide variety of capabilities and technologies that could enable these missions, so it is a major challenge for NASA's Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) to make knowledgeable portfolio decisions. It is critical for this pioneering initiative that these investment decisions are informed with a prioritization process that is robust and defensible. It is NASA's role to invest in targeted technologies and capabilities that would enable exploration missions even though specific requirements have not been identified. To inform these investments decisions, NASA's HEOMD has supported a variety of analysis activities that prioritize capabilities and technologies. These activities are often based on input from subject matter experts within the NASA community who understand the technical challenges of enabling human exploration missions. This paper will review a variety of processes and methods that NASA has used to prioritize and rank capabilities and technologies applicable to human space exploration. The paper will show the similarities in the various processes and showcase instances were customer specified priorities force modifications to the process. Specifically

  12. Approaches to remote sensing data analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pettinger, Lawrence R.

    1978-01-01

    Objectives: To present an overview of the essential steps in the remote sensing data analysis process, and to compare and contrast manual (visual) and automated analysis methods Rationale: This overview is intended to provide a framework for choosing a manual of digital analysis approach to collecting resource information. It can also be used as a basis for understanding/evaluating invited papers and poster sessions during the Symposium

  13. Analysis and Management of Animal Populations: Modeling, Estimation and Decision Making

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Williams, B.K.; Nichols, J.D.; Conroy, M.J.

    2002-01-01

    This book deals with the processes involved in making informed decisions about the management of animal populations. It covers the modeling of population responses to management actions, the estimation of quantities needed in the modeling effort, and the application of these estimates and models to the development of sound management decisions. The book synthesizes and integrates in a single volume the methods associated with these themes, as they apply to ecological assessment and conservation of animal populations. KEY FEATURES * Integrates population modeling, parameter estimation and * decision-theoretic approaches to management in a single, cohesive framework * Provides authoritative, state-of-the-art descriptions of quantitative * approaches to modeling, estimation and decision-making * Emphasizes the role of mathematical modeling in the conduct of science * and management * Utilizes a unifying biological context, consistent mathematical notation, * and numerous biological examples

  14. Spatial multi-criteria decision analysis to predict suitability for African swine fever endemicity in Africa

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background African swine fever (ASF) is endemic in several countries of Africa and may pose a risk to all pig producing areas on the continent. Official ASF reporting is often rare and there remains limited awareness of the continent-wide distribution of the disease. In the absence of accurate ASF outbreak data and few quantitative studies on the epidemiology of the disease in Africa, we used spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to derive predictions of the continental distribution of suitability for ASF persistence in domestic pig populations as part of sylvatic or domestic transmission cycles. In order to incorporate the uncertainty in the relative importance of different criteria in defining suitability, we modelled decisions within the MCDA framework using a stochastic approach. The predictive performance of suitability estimates was assessed via a partial ROC analysis using ASF outbreak data reported to the OIE since 2005. Results Outputs from the spatial MCDA indicate that large areas of sub-Saharan Africa may be suitable for ASF persistence as part of either domestic or sylvatic transmission cycles. Areas with high suitability for pig to pig transmission (‘domestic cycles’) were estimated to occur throughout sub-Saharan Africa, whilst areas with high suitability for introduction from wildlife reservoirs (‘sylvatic cycles’) were found predominantly in East, Central and Southern Africa. Based on average AUC ratios from the partial ROC analysis, the predictive ability of suitability estimates for domestic cycles alone was considerably higher than suitability estimates for sylvatic cycles alone, or domestic and sylvatic cycles in combination. Conclusions This study provides the first standardised estimates of the distribution of suitability for ASF transmission associated with domestic and sylvatic cycles in Africa. We provide further evidence for the utility of knowledge-driven risk mapping in animal health, particularly in data

  15. Systems Analysis Approach for the NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kimmel, William M.

    2011-01-01

    This conference paper describes the current systems analysis approach being implemented for the Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project within the Integrated Systems Research Program under the NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate. The scope and purpose of these systems studies are introduced followed by a methodology overview. The approach involves both top-down and bottoms-up components to provide NASA s stakeholders with a rationale for the prioritization and tracking of a portfolio of technologies which enable the future fleet of aircraft to operate with a simultaneous reduction of aviation noise, emissions and fuel-burn impacts to our environment. Examples of key current results and relevant decision support conclusions are presented along with a forecast of the planned analyses to follow.

  16. Decision Styles and Rationality: An Analysis of the Predictive Validity of the General Decision-Making Style Inventory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curseu, Petru Lucian; Schruijer, Sandra G. L.

    2012-01-01

    This study investigates the relationship between the five decision-making styles evaluated by the General Decision-Making Style Inventory, indecisiveness, and rationality in decision making. Using a sample of 102 middle-level managers, the results show that the rational style positively predicts rationality in decision making and negatively…

  17. A Decision-Oriented Approach for Detecting and Modeling Non-Stationary Flood Frequency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hecht, J. S.; Vogel, R. M.

    2014-12-01

    Changes in the frequency of extreme floods have been observed and anticipated in many hydrologic settings in response to numerous drivers of environmental change, including climate, land cover, and infrastructure. To help decision-makers design flood control infrastructure in settings with non-stationary hydrologic regimes, a parsimonious approach for detecting and modeling trends in extreme floods is needed. An approach using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression can accommodate nonstationarity in both the mean and variance of flood series while simultaneously offering a means of (i) analytically evaluating type I and type II trend detection errors, (ii) analytically generating expressions of uncertainty, such as confidence and prediction intervals, (iii) providing updated estimates of the frequency of floods exceeding the flood of record, (iv) accommodating a wide range of non-linear functions through ladder of powers transformations, and (v) communicating hydrologic changes in a single graphical image. Previous research has shown that the two-parameter lognormal distribution can adequately model the annual maximum flood distribution of both stationary and non-stationary hydrologic regimes in many regions of the United States. A simple logarithmic transformation of annual maximum flood series makes an OLS regression modeling approach especially suitable for creating a non-stationary flood frequency distribution with parameters that are conditional upon time or a physically meaningful covariate. While the heteroscedasticity of some OLS models may be viewed as an impediment, it also presents an opportunity for characterizing both the conditional mean and variance of annual maximum floods. Through a case study of an urbanizing watershed, we demonstrate that accounting for trends in both the mean and variance can yield substantially different estimates of time-dependent extreme flood quantiles than only considering trends in the mean. When applied to risk

  18. On the spot ethical decision-making in CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear event) response: approaches to on the spot ethical decision-making for first responders to large-scale chemical incidents.

    PubMed

    Rebera, Andrew P; Rafalowski, Chaim

    2014-09-01

    First responders to chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) events face decisions having significant human consequences. Some operational decisions are supported by standard operating procedures, yet these may not suffice for ethical decisions. Responders will be forced to weigh their options, factoring-in contextual peculiarities; they will require guidance on how they can approach novel (indeed unique) ethical problems: they need strategies for "on the spot" ethical decision making. The primary aim of this paper is to examine how first responders should approach on the spot ethical decision-making amid the stress and uncertainty of a CBRN event. Drawing on the long-term professional CBRN experience of one of the authors, this paper sets out a series of practical ethical dilemmas potentially arising in the context of a large-scale chemical incident. We propose a broadly consequentialist approach to on the spot ethical decision-making, but one which incorporates ethical values and rights as "side-constraints".

  19. A Remote Sensing Approach for Urban Environmental Decision-Making: An Atlanta, Georgia Case Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Luvall, Jeffrey C.; Rickman, Douglas L.; Laymon, Charles A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Howell, Burgess F.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Unquestionably, urbanization causes tremendous changes in land cover and land use, as well as impacting a host of environmental characteristics. For example, unlike natural surfaces, urban surfaces have very different thermal energy properties whereby they store solar energy throughout the day and continue to release it as heat well after sunset. This effect, known as the 'Urban Heat Island', serves as a catalyst for chemical reactions from vehicular exhaust and industrial activities leading to the deterioration in air quality, especially exacerbating the production of ground level ozone. 'Cool Community' strategies that utilize remote sensing data, are now being implemented as a way to reduce the impacts of the urban heat island and its subsequent environmental impacts. This presentation focuses on how remote sensing data have been used to provide descriptive and quantitative data for characterizing the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area - particularly for measuring surface energy fluxes, such as the thermal or "heat" energy that emanates from different land cover types across the Atlanta urban landscape. In turn, this information is useful for developing a better understanding of how the thermal characteristics of the city surface affect the urban heat island phenomena and, ultimately, air quality and other environmental parameters over the Atlanta metropolitan region. Additionally, this paper also provides insight on how remote sensing, with its synoptic approach, can be used to provide urban planners, local, state, and federal government officials, and other decision-makers, as well as the general public, with information to better manage urban areas as sustainable environments.

  20. Research and collaboration overview of Institut Pasteur International Network: a bibliometric approach toward research funding decisions

    PubMed Central

    Mostafavi, Ehsan; Bazrafshan, Azam

    2014-01-01

    Background: Institut Pasteur International Network (IPIN), which includes 32 research institutes around the world, is a network of research and expertise to fight against infectious diseases. A scientometric approach was applied to describe research and collaboration activities of IPIN. Methods: Publications were identified using a manual search of IPIN member addresses in Science Citation Index Expanded (SCIE) between 2006 and 2011. Total publications were then subcategorized by geographic regions. Several scientometric indicators and the H-index were employed to estimate the scientific production of each IPIN member. Subject and geographical overlay maps were also applied to visualize the network activities of the IPIN members. Results: A total number of 12667 publications originated from IPIN members. Each author produced an average number of 2.18 papers and each publication received an average of 13.40 citations. European Pasteur Institutes had the largest amount of publications, authored papers, and H-index values. Biochemistry and molecular biology, microbiology, immunology and infectious diseases were the most important research topics, respectively. Geographic mapping of IPIN publications showed wide international collaboration among IPIN members around the world. Conclusion: IPIN has strong ties with national and international authorities and organizations to investigate the current and future health issues. It is recommended to use scientometric and collaboration indicators as measures of research performance in IPIN future policies and investment decisions. PMID:24596896

  1. Group personality during collective decision-making: a multi-level approach.

    PubMed

    Planas-Sitjà, Isaac; Deneubourg, Jean-Louis; Gibon, Céline; Sempo, Grégory

    2015-03-01

    Collective decision-making processes emerge from social feedback networks within a group. Many studies on collective behaviour underestimate the role of individual personality and, as a result, personality is rarely analysed in the context of collective dynamics. Here, we show evidence of sheltering behaviour personality in a gregarious insect (Periplaneta americana), which is characterized by a collective personality at the group level. We also highlight that the individuals within groups exhibited consistent personality traits in their probability of sheltering and total time sheltered during the three trials over one week. Moreover, the group personality, which arises from the synergy between the distribution of behaviour profiles in the group and social amplifications, affected the sheltering dynamics. However, owing to its robustness, personality did not affect the group probability of reaching a consensus. Finally, to prove social interactions, we developed a new statistical method that will be helpful for future research on personality traits and group behaviour. This approach will help to identify the circumstances under which particular group compositions may improve the fitness of individuals in gregarious species.

  2. Toward understanding Malaysian fishermen's decision making on the use of fishing technology: a mental model approach.

    PubMed

    Hamzah, Azimi; Krauss, Steven E; Shaffril, Hayrol A M; Suandi, Turiman; Ismail, Ismi A; Abu Samah, Bahaman

    2014-10-01

    The vast majority of Malaysia's fishermen are located in rural areas, specifically in the Western and Eastern coastal regions of Peninsular Malaysia and the Sabah and Sarawak central zones. In these areas, the fishing industry is relied upon as a major economic contributor to the region's residents. Despite the widespread application of various modern technologies into the fishing industry (i.e., GPS, sonar, echo sounder, remote sensing), and the Malaysian government's efforts to encourage their adoption, many small-scale fishermen in the country's rural areas continue to rely on traditional fishing methods. This refusal to embrace new technologies has resulted in significant losses in fish yields and needed income, and has raised many questions regarding the inputs to decision making of the fishermen. Drawing on multiple literatures, in this article we argue for the use of a mental model approach to gain an in-depth understanding of rural Malaysian fishermen's choices of technology adoption according to four main constructs--prior experience, knowledge, expertise and beliefs or values. To provide needed inputs to agricultural specialists and related policy makers for the development of relevant plans of action, this article aims to provide a way forward for others to understand dispositional barriers to technology adoption among fishermen who use traditional methods in non-Western contexts. PMID:25178962

  3. Helping E-Commerce Consumers Make Good Purchase Decisions: A User Reviews-Based Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Richong; Tran, Thomas T.

    Online product reviews provided by the consumers, who have previously purchased and used some particular products, form a rich source of information for other consumers who would like to study about these products in order to make their purchase decisions. Realizing this great need of consumers, several e-commerce web sites such as Amazon.com offer facilities for consumers to review products and exchange their purchase opinions. Unfortunately, reading through the massive amounts of product reviews available online from many e-communities, forums and newsgroups is not only a tedious task but also an impossible one. Indeed, nowadays consumers need an effective and reliable method to search through those huge sources of information and sort out the most appropriate and helpful product reviews. This paper proposes a model to discover the helpfulness of online product reviews. Product reviews can be analyzed and ranked by our scoring system and those reviews that may help consumers better than others will be found. In addition, we compare our model with a number of machine learning techniques. Our experimental results confirm that our approach is effective in ranking and classifying online product reviews.

  4. Toward understanding Malaysian fishermen's decision making on the use of fishing technology: a mental model approach.

    PubMed

    Hamzah, Azimi; Krauss, Steven E; Shaffril, Hayrol A M; Suandi, Turiman; Ismail, Ismi A; Abu Samah, Bahaman

    2014-10-01

    The vast majority of Malaysia's fishermen are located in rural areas, specifically in the Western and Eastern coastal regions of Peninsular Malaysia and the Sabah and Sarawak central zones. In these areas, the fishing industry is relied upon as a major economic contributor to the region's residents. Despite the widespread application of various modern technologies into the fishing industry (i.e., GPS, sonar, echo sounder, remote sensing), and the Malaysian government's efforts to encourage their adoption, many small-scale fishermen in the country's rural areas continue to rely on traditional fishing methods. This refusal to embrace new technologies has resulted in significant losses in fish yields and needed income, and has raised many questions regarding the inputs to decision making of the fishermen. Drawing on multiple literatures, in this article we argue for the use of a mental model approach to gain an in-depth understanding of rural Malaysian fishermen's choices of technology adoption according to four main constructs--prior experience, knowledge, expertise and beliefs or values. To provide needed inputs to agricultural specialists and related policy makers for the development of relevant plans of action, this article aims to provide a way forward for others to understand dispositional barriers to technology adoption among fishermen who use traditional methods in non-Western contexts.

  5. Systemic Analysis Approaches for Air Transportation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Conway, Sheila

    2005-01-01

    Air transportation system designers have had only limited success using traditional operations research and parametric modeling approaches in their analyses of innovations. They need a systemic methodology for modeling of safety-critical infrastructure that is comprehensive, objective, and sufficiently concrete, yet simple enough to be used with reasonable investment. The methodology must also be amenable to quantitative analysis so issues of system safety and stability can be rigorously addressed. However, air transportation has proven itself an extensive, complex system whose behavior is difficult to describe, no less predict. There is a wide range of system analysis techniques available, but some are more appropriate for certain applications than others. Specifically in the area of complex system analysis, the literature suggests that both agent-based models and network analysis techniques may be useful. This paper discusses the theoretical basis for each approach in these applications, and explores their historic and potential further use for air transportation analysis.

  6. Approaches to end-of-life decision-making in the NICU: insights from Dostoevsky's The Grand Inquisitor.

    PubMed

    Paris, J J; Graham, N; Schreiber, M D; Goodwin, M

    2006-07-01

    For many parents stopping life-sustaining medical treatment on their dying infant is psychologically impossible. Dostoevsky's insights into human behavior, particularly the fact that individuals do not want the anxiety and guilt associated with responsibility for making difficult decisions, might change the way physicians approach parents for permission to withdraw life-prolonging medical interventions on dying infants.

  7. Approaches Employed by Sixth-Graders to Compare Rival Solutions in Socio-Scientific Decision-Making Tasks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Papadouris, Nicos; Constantinou, Constantinos P.

    2010-01-01

    The present study explores the approaches employed by sixth-grade students to compare rival solutions in socio-scientific decision-making situations. Data were collected using three specially developed open-ended tasks. Two of them were administered to 96 students in a written form while the third was administered to 20 of these students through…

  8. A Fourth-Generation Approach to Decision Support in a Private University. AIR Annual 1984 Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glover, Robert H.

    The demand for decision-support systems (DSSs) at the University of Hartford and the use of current software systems based on an information center approach are discussed. It is noted that declining enrollment demand and financial stress in tuition and enrollment-dependent universities requires a flexible and dynamic DSS for effective planning and…

  9. Comparison of Deck- and Trial-Based Approaches to Advantageous Decision Making on the Iowa Gambling Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Visagan, Ravindran; Xiang, Ally; Lamar, Melissa

    2012-01-01

    We compared the original deck-based model of advantageous decision making assessed with the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) with a trial-based approach across behavioral and physiological outcomes in 33 younger adults (15 men, 18 women; 22.2 [plus or minus] 3.7 years of age). One administration of the IGT with simultaneous measurement of skin conductance…

  10. Cost-Benefit Analysis in Environmental Decision Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Singer, S. Fred

    1977-01-01

    Discusses how to set the ambient standards for water and air based on cost-benefit analysis. Describes marginal analysis, the basis of cost-benefit analysis and how dynamic cost-benefit analysis is carried out with application to the automobile pollution problem. (HM)

  11. Developing shape analysis tools to assist complex spatial decision making

    SciTech Connect

    Mackey, H.E.; Ehler, G.B.; Cowen, D.

    1996-05-31

    The objective of this research was to develop and implement a shape identification measure within a geographic information system, specifically one that incorporates analytical modeling for site location planning. The application that was developed incorporated a location model within a raster-based GIS, which helped address critical performance issues for the decision support system. Binary matrices, which approximate the object`s geometrical form, are passed over the grided data structure and allow identification of irregular and regularly shaped objects. Lastly, the issue of shape rotation is addressed and is resolved by constructing unique matrices corresponding to the object`s orientation

  12. [Forgoing treatments: a kind of euthanasia? A scientific approach to the debate about end of life decisions].

    PubMed

    Riccioni, Luigi; Busca, Maria Teresa; Busatta, Lucia; Orsi, Luciano; Gristina, Giuseppe R

    2016-03-01

    In the last decade an extensive debate on the topic of end of life decisions has developed in western countries, obtaining a worldwide media relevance. Philosophers, theologians, legal experts and doctors, focus their attention on the three thorny issues of the topic: forgoing treatments, euthanasia and assisted suicide. A thorough and respectful discussion on these issues should include all stakeholders - above all palliative care physicians - and should be encouraged in order to understand the views in favor or against the three practices, checking the different moral positions, and analyzing the cultural, social and legal aspects in the background on one hand, and, on the other, their impact on the health care systems. At present, in the fields of communications and politics, the debate related to the topic of these end of life practices is characterized by a confusion of terms and meanings. As an outcome, the term "euthanasia" is misused as a "container" including forgoing treatments, euthanasia and assisted suicide, while palliative sedation is wrongly considered as a procedure to cause death. This confusing approach does not permit to understand the real issues at the stake, keeping the debate at the tabloid level. Conversely, sharing the precise meaning of the words is the only way to provide tools to make rational, autonomous and responsible decisions, allowing individual informed choices in compliance with the principle of autonomy. This article is not aimed to take a moral stand in favor or against forgoing treatments, euthanasia and assisted suicide. Through an analysis based on scientific criteria, the authors firstly review the definitions of these three practices, examining the concepts enclosed in each term; secondly, they offer a glance on the legal approach to end of life issues in western countries; lastly, they investigate the relationship between these practices and palliative care culture in light of the medical societies official statements

  13. [Forgoing treatments: a kind of euthanasia? A scientific approach to the debate about end of life decisions].

    PubMed

    Riccioni, Luigi; Busca, Maria Teresa; Busatta, Lucia; Orsi, Luciano; Gristina, Giuseppe R

    2016-03-01

    In the last decade an extensive debate on the topic of end of life decisions has developed in western countries, obtaining a worldwide media relevance. Philosophers, theologians, legal experts and doctors, focus their attention on the three thorny issues of the topic: forgoing treatments, euthanasia and assisted suicide. A thorough and respectful discussion on these issues should include all stakeholders - above all palliative care physicians - and should be encouraged in order to understand the views in favor or against the three practices, checking the different moral positions, and analyzing the cultural, social and legal aspects in the background on one hand, and, on the other, their impact on the health care systems. At present, in the fields of communications and politics, the debate related to the topic of these end of life practices is characterized by a confusion of terms and meanings. As an outcome, the term "euthanasia" is misused as a "container" including forgoing treatments, euthanasia and assisted suicide, while palliative sedation is wrongly considered as a procedure to cause death. This confusing approach does not permit to understand the real issues at the stake, keeping the debate at the tabloid level. Conversely, sharing the precise meaning of the words is the only way to provide tools to make rational, autonomous and responsible decisions, allowing individual informed choices in compliance with the principle of autonomy. This article is not aimed to take a moral stand in favor or against forgoing treatments, euthanasia and assisted suicide. Through an analysis based on scientific criteria, the authors firstly review the definitions of these three practices, examining the concepts enclosed in each term; secondly, they offer a glance on the legal approach to end of life issues in western countries; lastly, they investigate the relationship between these practices and palliative care culture in light of the medical societies official statements

  14. A Self-Instructional Approach to Environmental Decision Making: Focus on Land Use

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haakonsen, Harry O.; And Others

    1977-01-01

    The Land Use Decision Making Kit (LUK), an audio-tutorial program, is described. Topics detailed include: kit construction, design, orientation, organization, accessing information, packaging, and distribution. (BT)

  15. Beyond autonomy: diversifying end-of-life decision-making approaches to serve patients and families.

    PubMed

    Winzelberg, Gary S; Hanson, Laura C; Tulsky, James A

    2005-06-01

    Efforts to improve end-of-life decision-making quality have emphasized the principle of individual autonomy to better ensure that patients receive care consistent with their preferences. This principle has primarily been defined through court decisions during the past 3 decades as a patient's right to refuse medical technologies and avoid life-prolonging treatments. However, autonomy as traditionally defined only serves a small segment of dying patients. Patients might not value autonomy or consider autonomy important but define it differently than decision-making self-determination. Some patients also think in terms of their care goals rather than individual treatment preferences. Patients' functional and cognitive abilities, age, racial and ethnic backgrounds, and desire to avoid burdening loved ones may influence attitudes and definitions regarding autonomy. To improve end-of-life decision-making for an increasingly multicultural and aging population, the following priorities should be set: (1) Increase the flexibility of advance care planning and decision-making strategies used with capable patients to encompass diverse perceptions of autonomy; and (2) Improve communication between physicians and patients' families when patients lack decision-making capacity to facilitate decision-making and address families' emotional burdens. The goal of these priorities is to promote understanding of patients' and families' decision-making preferences and goals and to minimize decision-making burdens on families.

  16. An analysis of soil arsenic records of decision.

    PubMed

    Davis, A; Sherwin, D; Ditmars, R; Hoenke, K A

    2001-06-15

    In 1986 the US EPA created the National Priority List (NPL) that now comprises in excess of 2,000 sites nationwide, with arsenic the second most common inorganic constituent. A survey of 69 Records of Decision (RODs) written between 1985 and 1998 for which arsenic was a major driver found that 84% of cleanup goals were risk-driven and 16% were background-driven, with a wide range of soil-arsenic cleanup standards for 10(-6) residential risk goals (2-305 mg/kg). In comparison, the range of background-based cleanup goals was much narrower (8-21 mg/kg). ROD soil arsenic concentrations exhibit no statistically significanttemporal trend, but on a geographic basis, EPA Regions 6, 8, 9, and 10 had some of the higher decisions. The risk assessment process is important in defining cleanup goals; however routine use of site-specific variables (i.e., bioavailability, realistic tenure in both residential and occupational settings, natural attenuation of arsenic in groundwater, etc.) is necessary to ensure an accurate assessment of potential site risks and to preclude over-remediation that may result from the use of default risk variables.

  17. Using fuzzy logic analysis for siting decisions of infiltration trenches for highway runoff control.

    PubMed

    Ki, Seo Jin; Ray, Chittaranjan

    2014-09-15

    Determining optimal locations for best management practices (BMPs), including their field considerations and limitations, plays an important role for effective stormwater management. However, these issues have been often overlooked in modeling studies that focused on downstream water quality benefits. This study illustrates the methodology of locating infiltration trenches at suitable locations from spatial overlay analyses which combine multiple layers that address different aspects of field application into a composite map. Using seven thematic layers for each analysis, fuzzy logic was employed to develop a site suitability map for infiltration trenches, whereas the DRASTIC method was used to produce a groundwater vulnerability map on the island of Oahu, Hawaii, USA. In addition, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), one of the most popular overlay analyses, was used for comparison to fuzzy logic. The results showed that the AHP and fuzzy logic methods developed significantly different index maps in terms of best locations and suitability scores. Specifically, the AHP method provided a maximum level of site suitability due to its inherent aggregation approach of all input layers in a linear equation. The most eligible areas in locating infiltration trenches were determined from the superposition of the site suitability and groundwater vulnerability maps using the fuzzy AND operator. The resulting map successfully balanced qualification criteria for a low risk of groundwater contamination and the best BMP site selection. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that the suitability scores were strongly affected by the algorithms embedded in fuzzy logic; therefore, caution is recommended with their use in overlay analysis. Accordingly, this study demonstrates that the fuzzy logic analysis can not only be used to improve spatial decision quality along with other overlay approaches, but also is combined with general water quality models for initial and refined

  18. Geothermal well-field and power-plant investment-decision analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Amundsen, C.B.; Edelstein, R.H.; Blair, P.D.

    1981-05-31

    Investment decisions pertaining to hydrothermal well fields and electric power plants are analyzed. Geothermal investment decision models were developed which, when coupled to a site-specific stochastic cash flow model, estimate the conditional probability of a positive decision to invest in the development of geothermal resource areas. Quantitative decision models have been developed for each major category of investor currently involved in the hydrothermal projects. These categories include: large, diversified energy resource corporations; independently operating resource firms; investor-owned electric utilities; municipal electric utilities; state-run resource agencies; and private third-party power plant investors. The geothermal cash flow, the investment decision analysis, and an example of model application for assessing the likely development of geothermal resource areas are described. The sensitivity of this investment behavior to federal incentives and research goals is also analyzed and discussed.

  19. Mission Planning and Decision Support for Underwater Glider Networks: A Sampling on-Demand Approach

    PubMed Central

    Ferri, Gabriele; Cococcioni, Marco; Alvarez, Alberto

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes an optimal sampling approach to support glider fleet operators and marine scientists during the complex task of planning the missions of fleets of underwater gliders. Optimal sampling, which has gained considerable attention in the last decade, consists in planning the paths of gliders to minimize a specific criterion pertinent to the phenomenon under investigation. Different criteria (e.g., A, G, or E optimality), used in geosciences to obtain an optimum design, lead to different sampling strategies. In particular, the A criterion produces paths for the gliders that minimize the overall level of uncertainty over the area of interest. However, there are commonly operative situations in which the marine scientists may prefer not to minimize the overall uncertainty of a certain area, but instead they may be interested in achieving an acceptable uncertainty sufficient for the scientific or operational needs of the mission. We propose and discuss here an approach named sampling on-demand that explicitly addresses this need. In our approach the user provides an objective map, setting both the amount and the geographic distribution of the uncertainty to be achieved after assimilating the information gathered by the fleet. A novel optimality criterion, called Aη, is proposed and the resulting minimization problem is solved by using a Simulated Annealing based optimizer that takes into account the constraints imposed by the glider navigation features, the desired geometry of the paths and the problems of reachability caused by ocean currents. This planning strategy has been implemented in a Matlab toolbox called SoDDS (Sampling on-Demand and Decision Support). The tool is able to automatically download the ocean fields data from MyOcean repository and also provides graphical user interfaces to ease the input process of mission parameters and targets. The results obtained by running SoDDS on three different scenarios are provided and show that So

  20. Mission Planning and Decision Support for Underwater Glider Networks: A Sampling on-Demand Approach.

    PubMed

    Ferri, Gabriele; Cococcioni, Marco; Alvarez, Alberto

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes an optimal sampling approach to support glider fleet operators and marine scientists during the complex task of planning the missions of fleets of underwater gliders. Optimal sampling, which has gained considerable attention in the last decade, consists in planning the paths of gliders to minimize a specific criterion pertinent to the phenomenon under investigation. Different criteria (e.g., A, G, or E optimality), used in geosciences to obtain an optimum design, lead to different sampling strategies. In particular, the A criterion produces paths for the gliders that minimize the overall level of uncertainty over the area of interest. However, there are commonly operative situations in which the marine scientists may prefer not to minimize the overall uncertainty of a certain area, but instead they may be interested in achieving an acceptable uncertainty sufficient for the scientific or operational needs of the mission. We propose and discuss here an approach named sampling on-demand that explicitly addresses this need. In our approach the user provides an objective map, setting both the amount and the geographic distribution of the uncertainty to be achieved after assimilating the information gathered by the fleet. A novel optimality criterion, called A η , is proposed and the resulting minimization problem is solved by using a Simulated Annealing based optimizer that takes into account the constraints imposed by the glider navigation features, the desired geometry of the paths and the problems of reachability caused by ocean currents. This planning strategy has been implemented in a Matlab toolbox called SoDDS (Sampling on-Demand and Decision Support). The tool is able to automatically download the ocean fields data from MyOcean repository and also provides graphical user interfaces to ease the input process of mission parameters and targets. The results obtained by running SoDDS on three different scenarios are provided and show that So

  1. Mission Planning and Decision Support for Underwater Glider Networks: A Sampling on-Demand Approach.

    PubMed

    Ferri, Gabriele; Cococcioni, Marco; Alvarez, Alberto

    2015-12-26

    This paper describes an optimal sampling approach to support glider fleet operators and marine scientists during the complex task of planning the missions of fleets of underwater gliders. Optimal sampling, which has gained considerable attention in the last decade, consists in planning the paths of gliders to minimize a specific criterion pertinent to the phenomenon under investigation. Different criteria (e.g., A, G, or E optimality), used in geosciences to obtain an optimum design, lead to different sampling strategies. In particular, the A criterion produces paths for the gliders that minimize the overall level of uncertainty over the area of interest. However, there are commonly operative situations in which the marine scientists may prefer not to minimize the overall uncertainty of a certain area, but instead they may be interested in achieving an acceptable uncertainty sufficient for the scientific or operational needs of the mission. We propose and discuss here an approach named sampling on-demand that explicitly addresses this need. In our approach the user provides an objective map, setting both the amount and the geographic distribution of the uncertainty to be achieved after assimilating the information gathered by the fleet. A novel optimality criterion, called A η , is proposed and the resulting minimization problem is solved by using a Simulated Annealing based optimizer that takes into account the constraints imposed by the glider navigation features, the desired geometry of the paths and the problems of reachability caused by ocean currents. This planning strategy has been implemented in a Matlab toolbox called SoDDS (Sampling on-Demand and Decision Support). The tool is able to automatically download the ocean fields data from MyOcean repository and also provides graphical user interfaces to ease the input process of mission parameters and targets. The results obtained by running SoDDS on three different scenarios are provided and show that So

  2. Teaching a Rational Approach to Career Decision Making: Who Benefits Most?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Krumboltz, John D.; And Others

    1986-01-01

    Rational, intuitive, fatalistic, and dependent decision makers were compared on how much they learned from a rational decision-making training intervention. Individuals who had been highly impulsive, dependent, or fatalistic in prior course selections and those who exhibited dependency in prior job choices appeared to learn most from the rational…

  3. Assessment of New Approaches in Geothermal Exploration Decision Making; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

    SciTech Connect

    Akar, S.; Young, K. R.

    2015-05-11

    This poster describes the findings in a related paper and information gleaned from the project. The aim of the project is to develop a methodology for more objective geothermal decision making, including more solid go/no-go decisions at specific points in the process, and to reduce subjectivity and increase reproducibility in the future.

  4. School-Based Management: An Approach to Decision-Making Quality in Egyptian General Secondary Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Elmelegy, Reda Ibrahim

    2015-01-01

    The current research aims at clarifying how school-based management (SBM) can contribute to achieve the decision-making quality in Egyptian general secondary schools and determine the requirements of quality decision-making. It depends on the descriptive method in order to acknowledge the basics of the SBM and its relationship with the quality of…

  5. Sexuality Education: Building an Evidence- and Rights-Based Approach to Healthy Decision-Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bridges, Emily; Hauser, Debra

    2014-01-01

    As they grow up, young people face important decisions about relationships, sexuality, and sexual behavior. The decisions they make can impact their health and well-being for the rest of their lives. Young people have the right to lead healthy lives, and society has the responsibility to prepare youth by providing them with comprehensive sexual…

  6. Studies in Curriculum Decision Making: A Conflict Theory Approach. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mann, Leon

    This research project investigates the application of principles derived from a conflict theory of decision making (Janis & Mann 1968) to the study of decision making among high school and college students. Three studies were carried out to test derivations from conflict theory. The first study tested the effectiveness of a balance sheet or…

  7. Decision-Making Competence in Biology Education: Implementation into German Curricula in Relation to International Approaches

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Steffen, Benjamin; Hößle, Corinna

    2014-01-01

    The integration of decision-making competence or comparable constructs into science education has been strongly enforced during the last twenty years. Germany captured the tendency with the introduction of national standards for science education that included a domain that refers to decision-making competence. This domain--"evaluation and…

  8. Counterfactual Thinking and Ethical Decision Making: A New Approach to an Old Problem for Marketing Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Celuch, Kevin; Saxby, Carl

    2013-01-01

    The present study extends understanding of the self-regulatory aspects of ethical decision making by integrating and exploring relationships among counterfactual thinking, attribution, anticipatory emotions, and ethical decision-making constructs and processes. Specifically, we examine the effects of a manipulation designed to stimulate a…

  9. Systemic Data-Based Decision Making: A Systems Approach for Using Data in Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walser, Tamara M.

    2009-01-01

    No Child Left Behind has increased data collection and reporting, the development of data systems, and interest in using data for decision-making in schools and classrooms. Ends-driven decision making has become common educational practice, where the ends justify the means at all costs, and short-term results trump longer-term outcomes and the…

  10. Toward Reflective Judgment in Exploratory Factor Analysis Decisions: Determining the Extraction Method and Number of Factors To Retain.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knight, Jennifer L.

    This paper considers some decisions that must be made by the researcher conducting an exploratory factor analysis. The primary purpose is to aid the researcher in making informed decisions during the factor analysis instead of relying on defaults in statistical programs or traditions of previous researchers. Three decision areas are addressed.…

  11. Women's Values and Preferences for Thromboprophylaxis during Pregnancy: A Comparison of Direct-choice and Decision Analysis using Patient Specific Utilities

    PubMed Central

    Eckman, Mark H.; Alonso-Coello, Pablo; Guyatt, Gordon H.; Ebrahim, Shanil; Tikkinen, Kari A.O.; Lopes, Luciane Cruz; Neumann, Ignacio; McDonald, Sarah D.; Zhang, Yuqing; Zhou, Qi; Akl, Elie A.; Jacobsen, Ann Flem; Santamaría, Amparo; Annichino-Bizzacchi, Joyce Maria; Bitar, Wael; Sandset, Per Morten; Bates, Shannon M.

    2016-01-01

    Background Women with a history of venous thromboembolism (VTE) have an increased recurrence risk during pregnancy. Low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) reduces this risk, but is costly, burdensome, and may increase risk of bleeding. The decision to start thromboprophylaxis during pregnancy is sensitive to women's values and preferences. Our objective was to compare women's choices using a holistic approach in which they were presented all of the relevant information (direct-choice) versus a personalized decision analysis in which a mathematical model incorporated their preferences and VTE risk to make a treatment recommendation. Methods Multicenter, international study. Structured interviews were on women with a history of VTE who were pregnant, planning, or considering pregnancy. Women indicated their willingness to receive thromboprophylaxis based on scenarios using personalized estimates of VTE recurrence and bleeding risks. We also obtained women's values for health outcomes using a visual analog scale. We performed individualized decision analyses for each participant and compared model recommendations to decisions made when presented with the direct-choice exercise. Results Of the 123 women in the study, the decision model recommended LMWH for 51 women and recommended against LMWH for 72 women. 12% (6/51) of women for whom the decision model recommended thromboprophylaxis chose not to take LMWH; 72% (52/72) of women for whom the decision model recommended against thromboprophylaxis chose LMWH. Conclusions We observed a high degree of discordance between decisions in the direct-choice exercise and decision model recommendations. Although which approach best captures individuals’ true values remains uncertain, personalized decision support tools presenting results based on personalized risks and values may improve decision making. PMID:26033397

  12. Green Cutting Fluid Selection using Multi-attribute Decision Making Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jagadish; Ray, A.

    2015-01-01

    Optimal cutting fluid selection for Green Manufacturing (GM) alleviates environmental burdens. In the traditional manufacturing system, the selection of cutting fluid is based on economic and technical factors. But the environmental factors play a vital role in green manufacturing process. Therefore, the selection of green cutting fluid depends on various attributes and it is a multi-attribute decision making process. In this work, a combined method of Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) with multi objective optimization on the basis of ratio analysis has been developed for optimum selection of cutting fluid for green manufacturing that minimizes the environmental impact, cost and maximizes the quality. AHP method has been used to extract the precise value of each of the criterion which influences the assessment values for finding the optimal cutting fluid in this work. A case study of cutting fluid selection in the gear hobbing process has been presented to validate the proposed model. The research result shows that, Syntilo 9930c is the optimal cutting fluid.

  13. Environmental and economic impacts of decision-making at an arable farm: an integrative modeling approach.

    PubMed

    Lindgren, Urban; Elmquist, Helena

    2005-06-01

    This study examines the dependency between physical and anthropogenic systems in arable farming. The dynamic simulation model, which has its methodological origins in the modeling traditions of environmental systems analysis and microsimulation, reproduces the mutual links between the physical flows (e.g. energy, materials, emissions, and products), the farmer as a decision-making agent, and structural conditions influencing the farm. In running the model, the intention is to answer the question: What are the impacts on profitability and the environment (i.e. greenhouse gas effects, eutrophication, acidification, and energy use) of variations in prices, subsidies, the farmer's environmental values, and the farmer's skill in making production allocation choices? The results of the model simulations indicate, for example, that in terms of economic performance, a farmer can choose between two relatively sustainable strategies--either to specialize in organic production (thereby benefiting from higher subsidies and output prices), or to focus on conventional cultivation and use of pesticides and fertilizers (thereby benefiting from large yields). Regarding environmental impacts, there was no clear-cut divide between organic and conventional farming due to difficulties in allocating the use of manure. This finding is essentially related to the choice of system boundary, which is thoroughly discussed in the paper. PMID:16092275

  14. Integrated Evaluation of Urban Water Bodies for Pollution Abatement Based on Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Approach.

    PubMed

    Hashim, Sarfraz; Yuebo, Xie; Saifullah, Muhammad; Nabi Jan, Ramila; Muhetaer, Adila

    2015-01-01

    Today's ecology is erected with miscellaneous framework. However, numerous sources deteriorate it, such as urban rivers that directly cause the environmental pollution. For chemical pollution abatement from urban water bodies, many techniques were introduced to rehabilitate the water quality of these water bodies. In this research, Bacterial Technology (BT) was applied to urban rivers escalating the necessity to control the water pollution in different places (Xuxi River (XXU); Gankeng River (GKS); Xia Zhang River (XZY); Fenghu and Song Yang Rivers (FSR); Jiu Haogang River (JHH)) in China. For data analysis, the physiochemical parameters such as temperature, chemical oxygen demand (COD), dissolved oxygen (DO), total phosphorus (TP), and ammonia nitrogen (NH3N) were determined before and after the treatment. Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) method was used for relative significance of different water quality on each station, based on fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP). The overall results revealed that the pollution is exceeding at "JHH" due to the limit of "COD" as critical water quality parameter and after treatment, an abrupt recovery of the rivers compared with the average improved efficiency of nutrients was 79%, 74%, 68%, and 70% of COD, DO, TP, and NH3N, respectively. The color of the river's water changed to its original form and aquatic living organism appeared with clear effluents from them.

  15. Integrated Evaluation of Urban Water Bodies for Pollution Abatement Based on Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Approach.

    PubMed

    Hashim, Sarfraz; Yuebo, Xie; Saifullah, Muhammad; Nabi Jan, Ramila; Muhetaer, Adila

    2015-01-01

    Today's ecology is erected with miscellaneous framework. However, numerous sources deteriorate it, such as urban rivers that directly cause the environmental pollution. For chemical pollution abatement from urban water bodies, many techniques were introduced to rehabilitate the water quality of these water bodies. In this research, Bacterial Technology (BT) was applied to urban rivers escalating the necessity to control the water pollution in different places (Xuxi River (XXU); Gankeng River (GKS); Xia Zhang River (XZY); Fenghu and Song Yang Rivers (FSR); Jiu Haogang River (JHH)) in China. For data analysis, the physiochemical parameters such as temperature, chemical oxygen demand (COD), dissolved oxygen (DO), total phosphorus (TP), and ammonia nitrogen (NH3N) were determined before and after the treatment. Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) method was used for relative significance of different water quality on each station, based on fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP). The overall results revealed that the pollution is exceeding at "JHH" due to the limit of "COD" as critical water quality parameter and after treatment, an abrupt recovery of the rivers compared with the average improved efficiency of nutrients was 79%, 74%, 68%, and 70% of COD, DO, TP, and NH3N, respectively. The color of the river's water changed to its original form and aquatic living organism appeared with clear effluents from them. PMID:26516623

  16. Integrated Evaluation of Urban Water Bodies for Pollution Abatement Based on Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Approach

    PubMed Central

    Hashim, Sarfraz; Yuebo, Xie; Saifullah, Muhammad; Nabi Jan, Ramila; Muhetaer, Adila

    2015-01-01

    Today's ecology is erected with miscellaneous framework. However, numerous sources deteriorate it, such as urban rivers that directly cause the environmental pollution. For chemical pollution abatement from urban water bodies, many techniques were introduced to rehabilitate the water quality of these water bodies. In this research, Bacterial Technology (BT) was applied to urban rivers escalating the necessity to control the water pollution in different places (Xuxi River (XXU); Gankeng River (GKS); Xia Zhang River (XZY); Fenghu and Song Yang Rivers (FSR); Jiu Haogang River (JHH)) in China. For data analysis, the physiochemical parameters such as temperature, chemical oxygen demand (COD), dissolved oxygen (DO), total phosphorus (TP), and ammonia nitrogen (NH3N) were determined before and after the treatment. Multicriteria Decision Making (MCDM) method was used for relative significance of different water quality on each station, based on fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP). The overall results revealed that the pollution is exceeding at “JHH” due to the limit of “COD” as critical water quality parameter and after treatment, an abrupt recovery of the rivers compared with the average improved efficiency of nutrients was 79%, 74%, 68%, and 70% of COD, DO, TP, and NH3N, respectively. The color of the river's water changed to its original form and aquatic living organism appeared with clear effluents from them. PMID:26516623

  17. Research-based-decision-making in Canadian health organizations: a behavioural approach.

    PubMed

    Jbilou, Jalila; Amara, Nabil; Landry, Réjean

    2007-06-01

    Decision making in Health sector is affected by a several elements such as economic constraints, political agendas, epidemiologic events, managers' values and environment... These competing elements create a complex environment for decision making. Research-Based-Decision-Making (RBDM) offers an opportunity to reduce the generated uncertainty and to ensure efficacy and efficiency in health administrations. We assume that RBDM is dependant on decision makers' behaviour and the identification of the determinants of this behaviour can help to enhance research results utilization in health sector decision making. This paper explores the determinants of RBDM as a personal behaviour among managers and professionals in health administrations in Canada. From the behavioural theories and the existing literature, we build a model measuring "RBDM" as an index based on five items. These items refer to the steps accomplished by a decision maker while developing a decision which is based on evidence. The determinants of RBDM behaviour are identified using data collected from 942 health care decision makers in Canadian health organizations. Linear regression is used to model the behaviour RBDM. Determinants of this behaviour are derived from Triandis Theory and Bandura's construct "self-efficacy." The results suggest that to improve research use among managers in Canadian governmental health organizations, strategies should focus on enhancing exposition to evidence through facilitating communication networks, partnerships and links between researchers and decision makers, with the key long-term objective of developing a culture that supports and values the contribution that research can make to decision making in governmental health organizations. Nevertheless, depending on the organizational level, determinants of RBDM are different. This difference has to be taken into account if RBDM adoption is desired. Decision makers in Canadian health organizations (CHO) can help to build

  18. Heterogeneous Factor Analysis Models: A Bayesian Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ansari, Asim; Jedidi, Kamel; Dube, Laurette

    2002-01-01

    Developed Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedures to perform Bayesian inference, model checking, and model comparison in heterogeneous factor analysis. Tested the approach with synthetic data and data from a consumption emotion study involving 54 consumers. Results show that traditional psychometric methods cannot fully capture the heterogeneity in…

  19. A Mellin transform approach to wavelet analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alotta, Gioacchino; Di Paola, Mario; Failla, Giuseppe

    2015-11-01

    The paper proposes a fractional calculus approach to continuous wavelet analysis. Upon introducing a Mellin transform expression of the mother wavelet, it is shown that the wavelet transform of an arbitrary function f(t) can be given a fractional representation involving a suitable number of Riesz integrals of f(t), and corresponding fractional moments of the mother wavelet. This result serves as a basis for an original approach to wavelet analysis of linear systems under arbitrary excitations. In particular, using the proposed fractional representation for the wavelet transform of the excitation, it is found that the wavelet transform of the response can readily be computed by a Mellin transform expression, with fractional moments obtained from a set of algebraic equations whose coefficient matrix applies for any scale a of the wavelet transform. Robustness and computationally efficiency of the proposed approach are shown in the paper.

  20. Lean production tools and decision latitude enable conditions for innovative learning in organizations: a multilevel analysis.

    PubMed

    Fagerlind Ståhl, Anna-Carin; Gustavsson, Maria; Karlsson, Nadine; Johansson, Gun; Ekberg, Kerstin

    2015-03-01

    The effect of lean production on conditions for learning is debated. This study aimed to investigate how tools inspired by lean production (standardization, resource reduction, visual monitoring, housekeeping, value flow analysis) were associated with an innovative learning climate and with collective dispersion of ideas in organizations, and whether decision latitude contributed to these associations. A questionnaire was sent out to employees in public, private, production and service organizations (n = 4442). Multilevel linear regression analyses were used. Use of lean tools and decision latitude were positively associated with an innovative learning climate and collective dispersion of ideas. A low degree of decision latitude was a modifier in the association to collective dispersion of ideas. Lean tools can enable shared understanding and collective spreading of ideas, needed for the development of work processes, especially when decision latitude is low. Value flow analysis played a pivotal role in the associations. PMID:25479999

  1. Lean production tools and decision latitude enable conditions for innovative learning in organizations: a multilevel analysis.

    PubMed

    Fagerlind Ståhl, Anna-Carin; Gustavsson, Maria; Karlsson, Nadine; Johansson, Gun; Ekberg, Kerstin

    2015-03-01

    The effect of lean production on conditions for learning is debated. This study aimed to investigate how tools inspired by lean production (standardization, resource reduction, visual monitoring, housekeeping, value flow analysis) were associated with an innovative learning climate and with collective dispersion of ideas in organizations, and whether decision latitude contributed to these associations. A questionnaire was sent out to employees in public, private, production and service organizations (n = 4442). Multilevel linear regression analyses were used. Use of lean tools and decision latitude were positively associated with an innovative learning climate and collective dispersion of ideas. A low degree of decision latitude was a modifier in the association to collective dispersion of ideas. Lean tools can enable shared understanding and collective spreading of ideas, needed for the development of work processes, especially when decision latitude is low. Value flow analysis played a pivotal role in the associations.

  2. Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M.; Keisler, Jeffrey M.; Scarlett, Lynn; Loschiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A.; Linkov, Igor

    2013-10-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information.

  3. Utilizing Home Healthcare Electronic Health Records for Telehomecare Patients With Heart Failure: A Decision Tree Approach to Detect Associations With Rehospitalizations.

    PubMed

    Kang, Youjeong; McHugh, Matthew D; Chittams, Jesse; Bowles, Kathryn H

    2016-04-01

    Heart failure is a complex condition with a significant impact on patients' lives. A few studies have identified risk factors associated with rehospitalization among telehomecare patients with heart failure using logistic regression or survival analysis models. To date, there are no published studies that have used data mining techniques to detect associations with rehospitalizations among telehomecare patients with heart failure. This study is a secondary analysis of the home healthcare electronic medical record called the Outcome and Assessment Information Set-C for 552 telemonitored heart failure patients. Bivariate analyses using SAS and a decision tree technique using Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis were used. From the decision tree technique, the presence of skin issues was identified as the top predictor of rehospitalization that could be identified during the start of care assessment, followed by patient's living situation, patient's overall health status, severe pain experiences, frequency of activity-limiting pain, and total number of anticipated therapy visits combined. Examining risk factors for rehospitalization from the Outcome and Assessment Information Set-C database using a decision tree approach among a cohort of telehomecare patients provided a broad understanding of the characteristics of patients who are appropriate for the use of telehomecare or who need additional supports. PMID:26848645

  4. Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

    PubMed

    Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

    2016-03-01

    Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health.

  5. Environmental criteria in industrial facility siting decisions: An analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Briassoulis, Helen

    1995-03-01

    Environmental criteria are increasingly being employed in industrial facility siting, usually in multicriteria decision contexts, together with technical, socioeconomic and other considerations. This paper analyzes the criteria that have appeared in the published literature with the aim to offer guidance for their selection in a particular facility location problem. A number of alternative classification schemes are presented, first based on the most prevalent classification dimensions which are: the economy-environment relationship, purpose of the criterion, complexity, spatial and temporal scale, and level of measurement. The major scheme adopted draws from the economy-environment relationship and assigns environmental critera to one of seven categories: general characterizations of the environment, characteristics of individual environmental components, measures of the magnitude and intensity of the activity, measures of the nature and volume of wastes which are produced, characteristics of impacts on separate environmental media and receptors, general characterizations of environmental quality, and impacts on humans. Within each of these categories the criteria are analyzed in terms of the other classification dimensions. Common characteristics among the various criteria as well as future trends in their development are identified. This paper also discusses the most important factors conditioning the choice of criteria in a particular facility siting context and outlines a systematic procedure for their selection in real-world applications.

  6. Multivariate analysis: A statistical approach for computations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michu, Sachin; Kaushik, Vandana

    2014-10-01

    Multivariate analysis is a type of multivariate statistical approach commonly used in, automotive diagnosis, education evaluating clusters in finance etc and more recently in the health-related professions. The objective of the paper is to provide a detailed exploratory discussion about factor analysis (FA) in image retrieval method and correlation analysis (CA) of network traffic. Image retrieval methods aim to retrieve relevant images from a collected database, based on their content. The problem is made more difficult due to the high dimension of the variable space in which the images are represented. Multivariate correlation analysis proposes an anomaly detection and analysis method based on the correlation coefficient matrix. Anomaly behaviors in the network include the various attacks on the network like DDOs attacks and network scanning.

  7. Applying Decision-Making Approaches to Health Risk-Taking Behaviors: Progress and Remaining Challenges.

    PubMed

    Cho; Keller; Cooper

    1999-06-01

    This paper critically examines how risk-taking behaviors can be modeled from a decision-making perspective. We first review several applications of a decision perspective to the study of risk-taking behaviors, including studies that investigate consequence generation and the components of the overall utility (i.e., consequence, desirability, and likelihood) of risk-taking and studies that investigate the validity of two decision-oriented models (subjective expected utility and the theory of reasoned action) in predicting risk-taking behaviors. We then discuss challenges in modeling risk-taking behaviors from a decision-making perspective. These challenges include (i) finding the factors that are necessary to improve the predictability of models, (ii) difficulties in eliciting the individual components of overall utility, and (iii) incorporating overall utility changes over time. Copyright 1999 Academic Press. PMID:10366518

  8. A Model For Change: An Approach for Forecasting Well-Being From Service-Based Decisions

    EPA Science Inventory

    Every community decision incorporates a "forecasting" strategy (whether formal or implicit) to help visualize expected results and evaluate the potential “feelings” that people living in that community may have about those results. With more communities seek...

  9. Fuzzy inference game approach to uncertainty in business decisions and market competitions.

    PubMed

    Oderanti, Festus Oluseyi

    2013-01-01

    The increasing challenges and complexity of business environments are making business decisions and operations more difficult for entrepreneurs to predict the outcomes of these processes. Therefore, we developed a decision support scheme that could be used and adapted to various business decision processes. These involve decisions that are made under uncertain situations such as business competition in the market or wage negotiation within a firm. The scheme uses game strategies and fuzzy inference concepts to effectively grasp the variables in these uncertain situations. The games are played between human and fuzzy players. The accuracy of the fuzzy rule base and the game strategies help to mitigate the adverse effects that a business may suffer from these uncertain factors. We also introduced learning which enables the fuzzy player to adapt over time. We tested this scheme in different scenarios and discover that it could be an invaluable tool in the hand of entrepreneurs that are operating under uncertain and competitive business environments. PMID:24109562

  10. From Data to Optimal Decision Making: A Data-Driven, Probabilistic Machine Learning Approach to Decision Support for Patients With Sepsis

    PubMed Central

    Tsoukalas, Athanasios; Albertson, Timothy

    2015-01-01

    Background A tantalizing question in medical informatics is how to construct knowledge from heterogeneous datasets, and as an extension, inform clinical decisions. The emergence of large-scale data integration in electronic health records (EHR) presents tremendous opportunities. However, our ability to efficiently extract informed decision support is limited due to the complexity of the clinical states and decision process, missing data and lack of analytical tools to advice based on statistical relationships. Objective Development and assessment of a data-driven method that infers the probability distribution of the current state of patients with sepsis, likely trajectories, optimal actions related to antibiotic administration, prediction of mortality and length-of-stay. Methods We present a data-driven, probabilistic framework for clinical decision support in sepsis-related cases. We first define states, actions, observations and rewards based on clinical practice, expert knowledge and data representations in an EHR dataset of 1492 patients. We then use Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) model to derive the optimal policy based on individual patient trajectories and we evaluate the performance of the model-derived policies in a separate test set. Policy decisions were focused on the type of antibiotic combinations to administer. Multi-class and discriminative classifiers were used to predict mortality and length of stay. Results Data-derived antibiotic administration policies led to a favorable patient outcome in 49% of the cases, versus 37% when the alternative policies were followed (P=1.3e-13). Sensitivity analysis on the model parameters and missing data argue for a highly robust decision support tool that withstands parameter variation and data uncertainty. When the optimal policy was followed, 387 patients (25.9%) have 90% of their transitions to better states and 503 patients (33.7%) patients had 90% of their transitions to worse states

  11. Levels of Analysis in Mass Media Decision-Making: A Taxonomy and Research Strategy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dimmick, John W.

    A taxonomy of levels of analysis in mass media decision making is presented in this paper, and a strategy is proposed for incorporating the different levels into the design of research. Following a clarification of the concept of influence and its relationship to the levels of analysis used in the taxonomic structure, the paper describes the…

  12. Realtime Decision Making on EO-1 Using Onboard Science Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sherwood, Robert; Chien, Steve; Davies, Ashley; Mandl, Dan; Frye, Stu

    2004-01-01

    Recent autonomy experiments conducted on Earth Observing 1 (EO-1) using the Autonomous Sciencecraft Experiment (ASE) flight software has been used to classify key features in hyperspectral images captured by EO-1. Furthermore, analysis is performed by this software onboard EO-1 and then used to modify the operational plan without interaction from the ground. This paper will outline the overall operations concept and provide some details and examples of the onboard science processing, science analysis, and replanning.

  13. A Psychometric Evaluation of the Career Decision Self-Efficacy Scale with Korean Students: A Rasch Model Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nam, Suk Kyung; Yang, Eunjoo; Lee, Sang Min; Lee, Sang Hee; Seol, Hyunsoo

    2011-01-01

    The Career Decision Self-Efficacy Scale (CDSE) is one of the most frequently used in the field of career development and counseling. In this study, using the Rasch rating scale model analysis, the CDSE Scale was evaluated by the content, structural, and substantive aspects of validity in a sample of college students from South Korea. Overall, the…

  14. Risk perception and communication in vaccination decisions: a fuzzy-trace theory approach.

    PubMed

    Reyna, Valerie F

    2012-05-28

    The tenets of fuzzy-trace theory, along with prior research on risk perception and risk communication, are used to develop a process model of vaccination decisions in the era of Web 2.0. The theory characterizes these decisions in terms of background knowledge, dual mental representations (verbatim and gist), retrieval of values, and application of values to representations in context. Lack of knowledge interferes with the ability to extract the essential meaning, or gist, of vaccination messages. Prevention decisions have, by definition, a status quo option of "feeling okay." Psychological evidence from other prevention decisions, such as cancer screening, indicates that many people initially mentally represent their decision options in terms of simple, categorical gist: a choice between (a) a feeling-okay option (e.g., the unvaccinated status quo) versus (b) taking up preventive behavior that can have two potential categorical outcomes: feeling okay or not feeling okay. Hence, applying the same theoretical rules as used to explain framing effects and the Allais paradox, the decision to get a flu shot, for example, boils down to feeling okay (not sick) versus feeling okay (not sick) or not feeling okay (sick, side effects, or death). Because feeling okay is superior to not feeling okay (a retrieved value), this impoverished gist supports choosing not to have the flu vaccine. Anti-vaccination sources provide more coherent accounts of the gist of vaccination than official sources, filling a need to understand rare adverse outcomes.

  15. Disease transmission models for public health decision making: analysis of epidemic and endemic conditions caused by waterborne pathogens.

    PubMed Central

    Eisenberg, Joseph N S; Brookhart, M Alan; Rice, Glenn; Brown, Mary; Colford, John M

    2002-01-01

    Developing effective policy for environmental health issues requires integrating large collections of information that are diverse, highly variable, and uncertain. Despite these uncertainties in the science, decisions must be made. These decisions often have been based on risk assessment. We argue that two important features of risk assessment are to identify research needs and to provide information for decision making. One type of information that a model can provide is the sensitivity of making one decision over another on factors that drive public health risk. To achieve this goal, a risk assessment framework must be based on a description of the exposure and disease processes. Regarding exposure to waterborne pathogens, the appropriate framework is one that explicitly models the disease transmission pathways of pathogens. This approach provides a crucial link between science and policy. Two studies--a Giardia risk assessment case study and an analysis of the 1993 Milwaukee, Wisconsin, Cryptosporidium outbreak--illustrate the role that models can play in policy making. PMID:12153759

  16. Environmental risk management for radiological accidents: integrating risk assessment and decision analysis for remediation at different spatial scales.

    PubMed

    Yatsalo, Boris; Sullivan, Terrence; Didenko, Vladimir; Linkov, Igor

    2011-07-01

    The consequences of the Tohuku earthquake and subsequent tsunami in March 2011 caused a loss of power at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, in Japan, and led to the release of radioactive materials into the environment. Although the full extent of the contamination is not currently known, the highly complex nature of the environmental contamination (radionuclides in water, soil, and agricultural produce) typical of nuclear accidents requires a detailed geospatial analysis of information with the ability to extrapolate across different scales with applications to risk assessment models and decision making support. This article briefly summarizes the approach used to inform risk-based land management and remediation decision making after the Chernobyl, Soviet Ukraine, accident in 1986. PMID:21608109

  17. Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual

  18. Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual

  19. Four Common Simplifications of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis do not hold for River Rehabilitation

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    River rehabilitation aims at alleviating negative effects of human impacts such as loss of biodiversity and reduction of ecosystem services. Such interventions entail difficult trade-offs between different ecological and often socio-economic objectives. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is a very suitable approach that helps assessing the current ecological state and prioritizing river rehabilitation measures in a standardized way, based on stakeholder or expert preferences. Applications of MCDA in river rehabilitation projects are often simplified, i.e. using a limited number of objectives and indicators, assuming linear value functions, aggregating individual indicator assessments additively, and/or assuming risk neutrality of experts. Here, we demonstrate an implementation of MCDA expert preference assessments to river rehabilitation and provide ample material for other applications. To test whether the above simplifications reflect common expert opinion, we carried out very detailed interviews with five river ecologists and a hydraulic engineer. We defined essential objectives and measurable quality indicators (attributes), elicited the experts´ preferences for objectives on a standardized scale (value functions) and their risk attitude, and identified suitable aggregation methods. The experts recommended an extensive objectives hierarchy including between 54 and 93 essential objectives and between 37 to 61 essential attributes. For 81% of these, they defined non-linear value functions and in 76% recommended multiplicative aggregation. The experts were risk averse or risk prone (but never risk neutral), depending on the current ecological state of the river, and the experts´ personal importance of objectives. We conclude that the four commonly applied simplifications clearly do not reflect the opinion of river rehabilitation experts. The optimal level of model complexity, however, remains highly case-study specific depending on data and resource

  20. Four Common Simplifications of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis do not hold for River Rehabilitation.

    PubMed

    Langhans, Simone D; Lienert, Judit

    2016-01-01

    River rehabilitation aims at alleviating negative effects of human impacts such as loss of biodiversity and reduction of ecosystem services. Such interventions entail difficult trade-offs between different ecological and often socio-economic objectives. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is a very suitable approach that helps assessing the current ecological state and prioritizing river rehabilitation measures in a standardized way, based on stakeholder or expert preferences. Applications of MCDA in river rehabilitation projects are often simplified, i.e. using a limited number of objectives and indicators, assuming linear value functions, aggregating individual indicator assessments additively, and/or assuming risk neutrality of experts. Here, we demonstrate an implementation of MCDA expert preference assessments to river rehabilitation and provide ample material for other applications. To test whether the above simplifications reflect common expert opinion, we carried out very detailed interviews with five river ecologists and a hydraulic engineer. We defined essential objectives and measurable quality indicators (attributes), elicited the experts´ preferences for objectives on a standardized scale (value functions) and their risk attitude, and identified suitable aggregation methods. The experts recommended an extensive objectives hierarchy including between 54 and 93 essential objectives and between 37 to 61 essential attributes. For 81% of these, they defined non-linear value functions and in 76% recommended multiplicative aggregation. The experts were risk averse or risk prone (but never risk neutral), depending on the current ecological state of the river, and the experts´ personal importance of objectives. We conclude that the four commonly applied simplifications clearly do not reflect the opinion of river rehabilitation experts. The optimal level of model complexity, however, remains highly case-study specific depending on data and resource