Linking Effective Project Management to Business Strategy in Oil and Gas Industry through Decision-making Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adeleke, Adeyinka

The construction project in the oil and gas industry covers the entire spectrum of hydrocarbon production from the wellhead (upstream) to downstream facilities. In each of these establishments, the activities in a construction project include: consulting, studies, front-end engineering, detail engineering, procurement, program management, construction, installation, commissioning and start-up. Efficient management of each of the activities involved in construction projects is one of the driving forces for the successful completion of the project. Optimizing the crucial factors in project management during each phase of a project in an oil and gas industry can assist managers to maximize the use of available resources and drive the project to successful conclusions. One of these factors is the decision-making process in the construction project. Current research effort investigated the relationship between decision-making processes and business strategy in oil and gas industry using employee surveys. I recruited employees of different races, age group, genders, and years of experience in order understand their influence on the implementation of the decision-making process in oil and gas industry through a quantitative survey. Decision-making was assessed using five decision measures: (a) rational, (b) intuitive, (c) dependent, (d) avoidant, and (e) spontaneous. The findings indicated gender, age, years of work experience and job titles as primary variables with a negative relationship with decision-making approach for employees working in a major oil and gas industry. The study results revealed that the two most likely decision-making methods in oil and gas industry include: making a decision in a logical and systematic way and seek assistance from others when making a decision. Additionally, the two leading management approaches to decision-making in the oil and gas industry include: decision analysis is part of organization culture and management is committed to the decision-making process. Some recommendations for future studies were presented based on the need to intensify the importance of the current study and enlarge the body of knowledge regarding decision-making process in oil and gas industry.

Environmental impact assessment of transportation projects: An analysis using an integrated GIS, remote sensing, and spatial modeling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Gafy, Mohamed Anwar

Transportation projects will have impact on the environment. The general environmental pollution and damage caused by roads is closely associated with the level of economic activity. Although Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) are dependent on geo-spatial information in order to make an assessment, there are no rules per se how to conduct an environmental assessment. Also, the particular objective of each assessment is dictated case-by-case, based on what information and analyses are required. The conventional way of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) study is a time consuming process because it has large number of dependent and independent variables which have to be taken into account, which also have different consequences. With the emergence of satellite remote sensing technology and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), this research presents a new framework for the analysis phase of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for transportation projects based on the integration between remote sensing technology, geographic information systems, and spatial modeling. By integrating the merits of the map overlay method and the matrix method, the framework analyzes comprehensively the environmental vulnerability around the road and its impact on the environment. This framework is expected to: (1) improve the quality of the decision making process, (2) be applied both to urban and inter-urban projects, regardless of transport mode, and (3) present the data and make the appropriate analysis to support the decision of the decision-makers and allow them to present these data to the public hearings in a simple manner. Case studies, transportation projects in the State of Florida, were analyzed to illustrate the use of the decision support framework and demonstrate its capabilities. This cohesive and integrated system will facilitate rational decisions through cost effective coordination of environmental information and data management that can be tailored to specific projects. The framework would facilitate collecting, organizing, analyzing, archiving, and coordinating the information and data necessary to support technical and policy transportation decisions.

Library Digitisation Project Management.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Middleton, Michael

Supervision of library digitization is the focus of this paper. First outlined are the definition, formalization, implementation, and completion phases of project management. Descriptions of management decisions involved in digitization projects follow on matters such as: collection analysis, resourcing, project personnel, production, access and…

Flat-plate solar array project. Volume 8: Project analysis and integration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcguire, P.; Henry, P.

1986-01-01

Project Analysis and Integration (PA&I) performed planning and integration activities to support management of the various Flat-Plate Solar Array (FSA) Project R&D activities. Technical and economic goals were established by PA&I for each R&D task within the project to coordinate the thrust toward the National Photovoltaic Program goals. A sophisticated computer modeling capability was developed to assess technical progress toward meeting the economic goals. These models included a manufacturing facility simulation, a photovoltaic power station simulation and a decision aid model incorporating uncertainty. This family of analysis tools was used to track the progress of the technology and to explore the effects of alternative technical paths. Numerous studies conducted by PA&I signaled the achievement of milestones or were the foundation of major FSA project and national program decisions. The most important PA&I activities during the project history are summarized. The PA&I planning function is discussed and how it relates to project direction and important analytical models developed by PA&I for its analytical and assessment activities are reviewed.

Outsourcing within aerospace manufacturing enterprises: A phenomenological study and outsourcing leadership model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampson, Enrique, Jr.

Many aerospace workers believe transferring work projects abroad has an erosive effect on the U.S. aerospace industry (Pritchard, 2002). This qualitative phenomenological study examines factors for outsourcing decisions and the perceived effects of outsourcing on U.S. aerospace workers. The research sample consists of aerospace industry leaders and nonleaders from the East Coast, Midwest, and West Coast of the United States. Moustakas' modified van Kaam methods of analysis (1994) and Decision Explorer analysis software were applied to the interview transcripts. Resultant data identified five core themes: communication, best value, opportunities, cost, and offset consideration. The themes provided the framework for a model designed to assist leaders in making effective decisions and communicating the benefits of those decisions when considering outsourcing of work projects.

Reducing Subjectivity in Geothermal Exploration Decision Making (Presentation); NREL(National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Akar, S.; Young, K.

Geothermal exploration projects have a significant amount of risk associated with uncertainties encountered in the discovery of the geothermal resource. Two of the largest challenges for increased geothermal deployment are 1) understanding when and how to proceed in an exploration program, and 2) when to walk away from a site. Current methodologies for exploration decision-making are formulatedby subjective expert opinion which can be incorrectly biased by expertise (e.g. geochemistry, geophysics), geographic location of focus, and the assumed conceptual model. The aim of this project is to develop a methodology for more objective geothermal exploration decision making at a given location,more » including go/no-go decision points to help developers and investors decide when to give up on alocation. In this scope, two different approaches are investigated: 1) value of information analysis (VOIA) which is used for evaluating and quantifying the value of a data before they are purchased, and 2) enthalpy-based exploration targeting based on reservoir size, temperature gradient estimates, and internal rate of return (IRR). The first approach, VOIA, aims to identify the value of aparticular data when making decisions with an uncertain outcome. This approach targets the pre-drilling phase of exploration. These estimated VOIs are highly affected by the size of the project and still have a high degree of subjectivity in assignment of probabilities. The second approach, exploration targeting, is focused on decision making during the drilling phase. It starts with a basicgeothermal project definition that includes target and minimum required production capacity and initial budgeting for exploration phases. Then, it uses average temperature gradient, reservoir temperature estimates, and production capacity to define targets and go/no-go limits. The decision analysis in this approach is based on achieving a minimum IRR at each phase of the project. This secondapproach was determined to be less subjective, since numerical inputs come from the collected data. And it helps to facilitate communication between project managers and exploration geologists in making objective go/no-go decisions throughout the different project phases.« less

Acquisition and production of skilled behavior in dynamic decision-making tasks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kirlik, Alex

1992-01-01

Detailed summaries of two NASA-funded research projects are provided. The first project was an ecological task analysis of the Star Cruiser model. Star Cruiser is a psychological model designed to test a subject's level of cognitive activity. Ecological task analysis is used as a framework to predict the types of cognitive activity required to achieve productive behavior and to suggest how interfaces can be manipulated to alleviate certain types of cognitive demands. The second project is presented in the form of a thesis for the Masters Degree. The thesis discusses the modeling of decision-making through the use of neural network and genetic-algorithm machine learning technologies.

Decision analysis and drug development portfolio management: uncovering the real options value of your projects.

PubMed

Rosati, Nicoletta

2002-04-01

Project selection and portfolio management are particularly challenging in the pharmaceutical industry due to the high risk - high stake nature of the drug development process. In the recent years, scholars and industry experts have agreed that traditional Net-Present-Value evaluation of the projects fails to capture the value of managerial flexibility, and encouraged adopting a real options approach to recover the missed value. In this paper, we take a closer look at the drug development process and at the indices currently used to rank projects. We discuss the economic value of information and of real options arising in drug development and present decision analysis as an ideal framework for the implementation of real options valuation.

Measuring research progress in photovoltaics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, B.; Mcguire, P.

1986-01-01

The role and some results of the project analysis and integration function in the Flat-plate Solar Array (FSA) Project are presented. Activities included supporting the decision-making process, preparation of plans for project direction, setting goals for project activities, measuring progress within the project, and the development and maintenance of analytical models.

Portfolio Analysis Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barth, Tim; Zapata, Edgar; Benjamin, Perakath; Graul, Mike; Jones, Doug

2005-01-01

Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT) is a Web-based, client/server computer program that helps managers of multiple projects funded by different customers to make decisions regarding investments in those projects. PAT facilitates analysis on a macroscopic level, without distraction by parochial concerns or tactical details of individual projects, so that managers decisions can reflect the broad strategy of their organization. PAT is accessible via almost any Web-browser software. Experts in specific projects can contribute to a broad database that managers can use in analyzing the costs and benefits of all projects, but do not have access for modifying criteria for analyzing projects: access for modifying criteria is limited to managers according to levels of administrative privilege. PAT affords flexibility for modifying criteria for particular "focus areas" so as to enable standardization of criteria among similar projects, thereby making it possible to improve assessments without need to rewrite computer code or to rehire experts, and thereby further reducing the cost of maintaining and upgrading computer code. Information in the PAT database and results of PAT analyses can be incorporated into a variety of ready-made or customizable tabular or graphical displays.

Decision problems in management of construction projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szafranko, E.

2017-10-01

In a construction business, one must oftentimes make decisions during all stages of a building process, from planning a new construction project through its execution to the stage of using a ready structure. As a rule, the decision making process is made more complicated due to certain conditions specific for civil engineering. With such diverse decision situations, it is recommended to apply various decision making support methods. Both, literature and hands-on experience suggest several methods based on analytical and computational procedures, some less and some more complex. This article presents the methods which can be helpful in supporting decision making processes in the management of civil engineering projects. These are multi-criteria methods, such as MCE, AHP or indicator methods. Because the methods have different advantages and disadvantages, whereas decision situations have their own specific nature, a brief summary of the methods alongside some recommendations regarding their practical applications has been given at the end of the paper. The main aim of this article is to review the methods of decision support and their analysis for possible use in the construction industry.

Financial Analysis for R&D Decisions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carter, Robert

1997-01-01

Using personal computer spreadsheet software, standard corporate financial analysis can help university research administrators communicate the value of research and development to sponsors and other stakeholders; balance projects, technologies, or categories of research; and continually assess the value of investing in ongoing projects. It also…

Hierarchical analysis of bridge decision makers : the role of new technology adoption in the timber bridge market : special project fiscal year 1992

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-08-01

Bridge design engineers and local highway officials make bridge replacement decisions across the : United States. The Analytical Hierarchy Process was used to characterize the bridge material selection : decision of these individuals. State Departmen...

Potential value of satellite cloud pictures in weather modification projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biswas, K. R.

1972-01-01

Satellite imagery for one project season of cloud seeding programs in the northern Great Plains has been surveyed for its probable usefulness in weather modification programs. The research projects and the meteorological information available are described. A few illustrative examples of satellite imagery analysis are cited and discussed, along with local observations of weather and the seeding decisions made in the research program. This analysis indicates a definite correlation between satellite-observed cloud patterns and the types of cloud seeding activity undertaken, and suggests a high probability of better and/or earlier decisions if the imagery is available in real time. Infrared imagery provides better estimates of cloud height which can be useful in assessing the possibility of a hail threat. The satellite imagery appears to be of more value to area-seeding projects than to single-cloud seeding experiments where the imagery is of little value except as an aid in local forecasting and analysis.

Integrating Efficiency of Industry Processes and Practices Alongside Technology Effectiveness in Space Transportation Cost Modeling and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zapata, Edgar

2012-01-01

This paper presents past and current work in dealing with indirect industry and NASA costs when providing cost estimation or analysis for NASA projects and programs. Indirect costs, when defined as those costs in a project removed from the actual hardware or software hands-on labor; makes up most of the costs of today's complex large scale NASA space/industry projects. This appears to be the case across phases from research into development into production and into the operation of the system. Space transportation is the case of interest here. Modeling and cost estimation as a process rather than a product will be emphasized. Analysis as a series of belief systems in play among decision makers and decision factors will also be emphasized to provide context.

Trajectory selection for the Mariner Jupiter/Saturn 1977 project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dyer, J. S.; Miles, R. F., Jr.

1974-01-01

The use of decision analysis to facilitate a group decision-making problem in the selection of trajectories for the two spacecraft of the Mariner Jupiter/Saturn 1977 Project. A set of 32 candidate trajectory pairs was developed. Cardinal utility function values were assigned to the trajectory pairs, and the data and statistics derived from collective choice rules were used in selecting the science-preferred trajectory pair.

Aids to navigation service force mix 2000 project. Volume 1 : development and application of an aids to navigation service force mix decision support system

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1992-07-01

The Aids to Navigation (ATON) Service Force Mix (SFM) 2000 Project is documented in a Project Overview and three separately bound volumes. This is the Project Overview. The Project Overview describes the purpose, approach, analysis, and results of th...

Risk management of PPP project in the preparation stage based on Fault Tree Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xing, Yuanzhi; Guan, Qiuling

2017-03-01

The risk management of PPP(Public Private Partnership) project can improve the level of risk control between government departments and private investors, so as to make more beneficial decisions, reduce investment losses and achieve mutual benefit as well. Therefore, this paper takes the PPP project preparation stage venture as the research object to identify and confirm four types of risks. At the same time, fault tree analysis(FTA) is used to evaluate the risk factors that belong to different parts, and quantify the influencing degree of risk impact on the basis of risk identification. In addition, it determines the importance order of risk factors by calculating unit structure importance on PPP project preparation stage. The result shows that accuracy of government decision-making, rationality of private investors funds allocation and instability of market returns are the main factors to generate the shared risk on the project.

Risk-benefit analysis and public policy: a bibliography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clark, E.M.; Van Horn, A.J.

1976-11-01

Risk-benefit analysis has been implicitly practiced whenever decision-makers are confronted with decisions involving risks to life, health, or to the environment. Various methodologies have been developed to evaluate relevant criteria and to aid in assessing the impacts of alternative projects. Among these have been cost-benefit analysis, which has been widely used for project evaluation. However, in many cases it has been difficult to assign dollar costs to those criteria involving risks and benefits which are not now assigned explicit monetary values in our economic system. Hence, risk-benefit analysis has evolved to become more than merely an extension of cost-benefit analysis,more » and many methods have been applied to examine the trade-offs between risks and benefits. In addition, new scientific and statistical techniques have been developed for assessing current and future risks. The 950 references included in this bibliography are meant to suggest the breadth of those methodologies which have been applied to decisions involving risk.« less

Demonstration of the application of traffic management center decision support tools.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-03-01

Decision support tools were developed in previous Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) : research projects to allow for better analysis and visualization of historical traffic and incident : data, in support of incident management and traffic ...

Identifying the institutional decision process to introduce decentralized sanitation in the city of Kunming (China).

PubMed

Medilanski, Edi; Chuan, Liang; Mosler, Hans-Joachim; Schertenleib, Roland; Larsen, Tove A

2007-05-01

We conducted a study of the institutional barriers to introducing urine source separation in the urban area of Kunming, China. On the basis of a stakeholder analysis, we constructed stakeholder diagrams showing the relative importance of decision-making power and (positive) interest in the topic. A hypothetical decision-making process for the urban case was derived based on a successful pilot project in a periurban area. All our results were evaluated by the stakeholders. We concluded that although a number of primary stakeholders have a large interest in testing urine source separation also in an urban context, most of the key stakeholders would be reluctant to this idea. However, the success in the periurban area showed that even a single, well-received pilot project can trigger the process of broad dissemination of new technologies. Whereas the institutional setting for such a pilot project is favorable in Kunming, a major challenge will be to adapt the technology to the demands of an urban population. Methodologically, we developed an approach to corroborate a stakeholder analysis with the perception of the stakeholders themselves. This is important not only in order to validate the analysis but also to bridge the theoretical gap between stakeholder analysis and stakeholder involvement. We also show that in disagreement with the assumption of most policy theories, local stakeholders consider informal decision pathways to be of great importance in actual policy-making.

Identifying the Institutional Decision Process to Introduce Decentralized Sanitation in the City of Kunming (China)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medilanski, Edi; Chuan, Liang; Mosler, Hans-Joachim; Schertenleib, Roland; Larsen, Tove A.

2007-05-01

We conducted a study of the institutional barriers to introducing urine source separation in the urban area of Kunming, China. On the basis of a stakeholder analysis, we constructed stakeholder diagrams showing the relative importance of decision-making power and (positive) interest in the topic. A hypothetical decision-making process for the urban case was derived based on a successful pilot project in a periurban area. All our results were evaluated by the stakeholders. We concluded that although a number of primary stakeholders have a large interest in testing urine source separation also in an urban context, most of the key stakeholders would be reluctant to this idea. However, the success in the periurban area showed that even a single, well-received pilot project can trigger the process of broad dissemination of new technologies. Whereas the institutional setting for such a pilot project is favorable in Kunming, a major challenge will be to adapt the technology to the demands of an urban population. Methodologically, we developed an approach to corroborate a stakeholder analysis with the perception of the stakeholders themselves. This is important not only in order to validate the analysis but also to bridge the theoretical gap between stakeholder analysis and stakeholder involvement. We also show that in disagreement with the assumption of most policy theories, local stakeholders consider informal decision pathways to be of great importance in actual policy-making.

Quick Fix for Managing Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

Under a Phase II SBIR contract, Kennedy and Lumina Decision Systems, Inc., jointly developed the Schedule and Cost Risk Analysis Modeling (SCRAM) system, based on a version of Lumina's flagship software product, Analytica(R). Acclaimed as "the best single decision-analysis program yet produced" by MacWorld magazine, Analytica is a "visual" tool used in decision-making environments worldwide to build, revise, and present business models, minus the time-consuming difficulty commonly associated with spreadsheets. With Analytica as their platform, Kennedy and Lumina created the SCRAM system in response to NASA's need to identify the importance of major delays in Shuttle ground processing, a critical function in project management and process improvement. As part of the SCRAM development project, Lumina designed a version of Analytica called the Analytica Design Engine (ADE) that can be easily incorporated into larger software systems. ADE was commercialized and utilized in many other developments, including web-based decision support.

Decision Analysis for Multicandidate Voting Systems. Applications of Elementary Decision Analysis to Political Science. [and] An Application of Voting Theory to Congress. Applications of Decision Theory and Game Theory to American Politics. Modules and Monographs in Undergraduate Mathematics and Its Applications Project. UMAP Units 384 and 386.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merrill, Samuel, III; Enelow, James M.

This document consists of two modules. The first studies a variety of multicandidate voting systems, including approval, Borda, and cumulative voting, using a model which takes account of a voter's intensity of preference for candidates. The voter's optimal strategy is investigated for each voting system using decision criteria under uncertainty…

Assessment of New Approaches in Geothermal Exploration Decision Making: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Akar, S.; Young, K. R.

Geothermal exploration projects have significant amount of risk associated with uncertainties encountered in the discovery of the geothermal resource. Understanding when and how to proceed in an exploration program, and when to walk away from a site, are two of the largest challenges for increased geothermal deployment. Current methodologies for exploration decision making is left to subjective by subjective expert opinion which can be incorrectly biased by expertise (e.g. geochemistry, geophysics), geographic location of focus, and the assumed conceptual model. The aim of this project is to develop a methodology for more objective geothermal exploration decision making at a givenmore » location, including go-no-go decision points to help developers and investors decide when to give up on a location. In this scope, two different approaches are investigated: 1) value of information analysis (VOIA) which is used for evaluating and quantifying the value of a data before they are purchased, and 2) enthalpy-based exploration targeting based on reservoir size, temperature gradient estimates, and internal rate of return (IRR). The first approach, VOIA, aims to identify the value of a particular data when making decisions with an uncertain outcome. This approach targets the pre-drilling phase of exploration. These estimated VOIs are highly affected by the size of the project and still have a high degree of subjectivity in assignment of probabilities. The second approach, exploration targeting, is focused on decision making during the drilling phase. It starts with a basic geothermal project definition that includes target and minimum required production capacity and initial budgeting for exploration phases. Then, it uses average temperature gradient, reservoir temperature estimates, and production capacity to define targets and go/no-go limits. The decision analysis in this approach is based on achieving a minimum IRR at each phase of the project. This second approach was determined to be less subjective, since it requires less subjectivity in the input values.« less

Enabling drug discovery project decisions with integrated computational chemistry and informatics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsui, Vickie; Ortwine, Daniel F.; Blaney, Jeffrey M.

2017-03-01

Computational chemistry/informatics scientists and software engineers in Genentech Small Molecule Drug Discovery collaborate with experimental scientists in a therapeutic project-centric environment. Our mission is to enable and improve pre-clinical drug discovery design and decisions. Our goal is to deliver timely data, analysis, and modeling to our therapeutic project teams using best-in-class software tools. We describe our strategy, the organization of our group, and our approaches to reach this goal. We conclude with a summary of the interdisciplinary skills required for computational scientists and recommendations for their training.

Introduction to SIMRAND: Simulation of research and development project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miles, R. F., Jr.

1982-01-01

SIMRAND: SIMulation of Research ANd Development Projects is a methodology developed to aid the engineering and management decision process in the selection of the optimal set of systems or tasks to be funded on a research and development project. A project may have a set of systems or tasks under consideration for which the total cost exceeds the allocated budget. Other factors such as personnel and facilities may also enter as constraints. Thus the project's management must select, from among the complete set of systems or tasks under consideration, a partial set that satisfies all project constraints. The SIMRAND methodology uses analytical techniques and probability theory, decision analysis of management science, and computer simulation, in the selection of this optimal partial set. The SIMRAND methodology is truly a management tool. It initially specifies the information that must be generated by the engineers, thus providing information for the management direction of the engineers, and it ranks the alternatives according to the preferences of the decision makers.

Data-driven freeway performance evaluation framework for project prioritization and decision making.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-01-01

This report describes methods that potentially can be incorporated into the performance monitoring and planning processes for freeway performance evaluation and decision making. Reliability analysis was conducted on the selected I-15 corridor by empl...

Data-driven freeway performance evaluation framework for project prioritization and decision making.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-03-01

This report describes methods that potentially can be incorporated into the performance monitoring and planning : processes for freeway performance evaluation and decision making. Reliability analysis is conducted on the selected : I-15 corridor by e...

Trajectory selection for the Mariner Jupiter/Saturn 1977 Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dyer, J. S.; Miles, R. F., Jr.

1974-01-01

This paper describes the use of decision analysis to facilitate a group decision-making problem in the selection of trajectories for the two spacecraft of the Mariner Jupiter/Saturn 1977 Project. This NASA project includes the participation of some eighty scientists divided by specialization among eleven science teams. A set of thirty-two candidate trajectory pairs was developed by the Project in collaboration with the science teams. Each science team then ordinally ranked and assigned cardinal utility function values to the trajectory pairs. These data and statistics derived from collective choice rules were used by the scientists in selecting the preferred trajectory pair.

Incremental development and prototyping in current laboratory software development projects: Preliminary analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Griesel, Martha Ann

1988-01-01

Several Laboratory software development projects that followed nonstandard development processes, which were hybrids of incremental development and prototyping, are being studied. Factors in the project environment leading to the decision to use a nonstandard development process and affecting its success are analyzed. A simple characterization of project environment based on this analysis is proposed, together with software development approaches which have been found effective for each category. These approaches include both documentation and review requirements.

SOUTHWEST REGIONAL GAP ANALYSIS PROJECT: THE SECOND GENERATION

EPA Science Inventory

The project goal of providing useful information to the regional, state, and community stakeholders to assist them in understanding the environment, setting priorities, and making important decisions relative to conservation and sustainable resource management.

LEEDS Decision Tools for E-Craft

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-02-15

currently valid 0MB control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 15-Feb-2011 2. REPORT TYPE Final... RIT has received no feedback regarding which system monitoring would be most beneficial to MSB. TASKS 1. Decision support research Data/analysis...project, a Project Initiation Document (PID) was written by RIT and submitted to MSB for its approval. This document is attached in Appendix A. It

A Hierarchical Analysis of Bridge Decision Makers ... The Role of New Technology Adoption in the Timber Bridge Market: Special Project

Treesearch

Robert L. Smith; Robert J. Bush; Daniel L. Schmoldt

1995-01-01

Bridge design engineers and local highway officials make bridge replacement decisions across the United States. The Analytical Hierarchy Process was used to characterize the bridge material selection decision of these individuals. State Department of Transportation engineers, private consulting engineers, and local highway officials were personally interviewed in...

77 FR 6778 - Nez Perce-Clearwater National Forests; Idaho; Clear Creek Integrated Restoration Project

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-09

... Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) analysis and decision making process on the proposal so interested and affected members of the public may participate and contribute to the final decision. DATES: Comments concerning the...Forest Supervisor. 12730 Highway 12, Orofinio, ID 83544. The Decision To Be Made is whether to adopt the...

Development of a requirements management system for technical decision - making processes in the geological disposal project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hiroyoshi Ueda; Katsuhiko Ishiguro; Kazumi Kitayama

2007-07-01

NUMO (Nuclear Waste Management Organization of Japan) has a responsibility for implementing geological disposal of vitrified HLW (High-Level radioactive Waste) in the Japanese nuclear waste management programme. Its staged siting procedure was initiated in 2002 by an open call for volunteer sites. Careful management strategy and methodology for the technical decision-making at every milestone are required to prepare for the volunteer site application and the site investigation stages after that. The formal Requirement Management System (RMS) is planned to support the computerized implementation of the specific management methodology, termed the NUMO Structured Approach (NSA). This planned RMS will help formore » comprehensive management of the decision-making processes in the geological disposal project, change management towards the anticipated project deviations, efficient project driving such as well programmed R and D etc. and structured record-keeping regarding the past decisions, which leads to soundness of the project in terms of the long-term continuity. The system should have handling/management functions for the database including the decisions/requirements in the project in consideration, their associated information and the structures composed of them in every decision-making process. The information relating to the premises, boundary conditions and time plan of the project should also be prepared in the system. Effective user interface and efficient operation on the in-house network are necessary. As a living system for the long-term formal use, flexibility to updating is indispensable. In advance of the formal system development, two-year activity to develop the preliminary RMS was already started. The purpose of this preliminary system is to template the decision/requirement structure, prototype the decision making management and thus show the feasibility of the innovative RMS. The paper describes the current status of the development, focusing on the initial stage including work analysis/modeling and the system conceptualization. (authors)« less

A Stochastic Multi-Attribute Assessment of Energy Options for Fairbanks, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, L.; Madani, K.; Mokhtari, S.; Hanks, C. L.; Sheets, B.

2012-12-01

Many competing projects have been proposed to address Interior Alaska's high cost of energy—both for electricity production and for heating. Public and private stakeholders are considering the costs associated with these competing projects which vary in fuel source, subsidy requirements, proximity, and other factors. As a result, the current projects under consideration involve a complex cost structure of potential subsidies and reliance on present and future market prices, introducing a significant amount of uncertainty associated with each selection. Multi-criteria multi-decision making (MCMDM) problems of this nature can benefit from game theory and systems engineering methods, which account for behavior and preferences of stakeholders in the analysis to produce feasible and relevant solutions. This work uses a stochastic MCMDM framework to evaluate the trade-offs of each proposed project based on a complete cost analysis, environmental impact, and long-term sustainability. Uncertainty in the model is quantified via a Monte Carlo analysis, which helps characterize the sensitivity and risk associated with each project. Based on performance measures and criteria outlined by the stakeholders, a decision matrix will inform policy on selecting a project that is both efficient and preferred by the constituents.

Project Delivery System Mode Decision Based on Uncertain AHP and Fuzzy Sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaishan, Liu; Huimin, Li

2017-12-01

The project delivery system mode determines the contract pricing type, project management mode and the risk allocation among all participants. Different project delivery system modes have different characteristics and applicable scope. For the owners, the selection of the delivery mode is the key point to decide whether the project can achieve the expected benefits, it relates to the success or failure of project construction. Under the precondition of comprehensively considering the influence factors of the delivery mode, the model of project delivery system mode decision was set up on the basis of uncertain AHP and fuzzy sets, which can well consider the uncertainty and fuzziness when conducting the index evaluation and weight confirmation, so as to rapidly and effectively identify the most suitable delivery mode according to project characteristics. The effectiveness of the model has been verified via the actual case analysis in order to provide reference for the construction project delivery system mode.

Study on optimized decision-making model of offshore wind power projects investment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Tian; Yang, Shangdong; Gao, Guowei; Ma, Li

2018-02-01

China’s offshore wind energy is of great potential and plays an important role in promoting China’s energy structure adjustment. However, the current development of offshore wind power in China is inadequate, and is much less developed than that of onshore wind power. On the basis of considering all kinds of risks faced by offshore wind power development, an optimized model of offshore wind power investment decision is established in this paper by proposing the risk-benefit assessment method. To prove the practicability of this method in improving the selection of wind power projects, python programming is used to simulate the investment analysis of a large number of projects. Therefore, the paper is dedicated to provide decision-making support for the sound development of offshore wind power industry.

Establishing Influential Decision Making Factors for University Library Opening Hours: An Exploratory UK Regional Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ravenwood, Clare; Stephens, Derek; Walton, Graham

2015-01-01

Many factors and pressures affect decisions made in UK university libraries on opening hours especially 24/7. This article reports on a project to examine the decision-making process, influential factors, and stakeholders. A workshop for senior library managers in the East Midlands was held to gather data and share experiences. From analysis of…

Analysis and Design of a Decision Support System for Silas B. Hays Army Community Hospital

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-09-01

develop the DSS. This collaboration allows the user to learn about the power decision support can give to the decision maker and... projects under their control. A DSS is developed to provide decision support for a specific manager or group , and con- sequently falls under the ... It is possible the first iteration could be developed in more than one programming language and results compared . Once the first

The application of remote sensing to resource management and environmental quality programs in Kansas

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barr, B. G.; Martinko, E. A.

1976-01-01

Activities of the Kansas Applied Remote Sensing Program (KARS) designed to establish interactions on cooperative projects with decision makers in Kansas agencies in the development and application of remote sensing procedures are reported. Cooperative demonstration projects undertaken with several different agencies involved three principal areas of effort: Wildlife Habitat and Environmental Analysis; Urban and Regional Analysis; Agricultural and Rural Analysis. These projects were designed to concentrate remote sensing concepts and methodologies on existing agency problems to insure the continued relevancy of the program and maximize the possibility for immediate operational use. Completed projects are briefly discussed.

Developpement energetique par modelisation et intelligence territoriale: Un outil de prise de decision participative pour le developpement durable des projets eoliens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vazquez Rascon, Maria de Lourdes

This thesis focuses on the implementation of a participatory and transparent decision making tool about the wind farm projects. This tool is based on an (argumentative) framework that reflects the stakeholder's values systems involved in these projects and it employs two multicriteria methods: the multicriteria decision aide and the participatory geographical information systems, making it possible to represent this value systems by criteria and indicators to be evaluated. The stakeholder's values systems will allow the inclusion of environmental, economic and social-cultural aspects of wind energy projects and, thus, a sustainable development wind projects vision. This vision will be analyzed using the 16 sustainable principles included in the Quebec's Sustainable Development Act. Four specific objectives have been instrumented to favor a logical completion work, and to ensure the development of a successfultool : designing a methodology to couple the MCDA and participatory GIS, testing the developed methodology by a case study, making a robustness analysis to address strategic issues and analyzing the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threads of the developed methodology. Achieving the first goal allowed us to obtain a decision-making tool called Territorial Intelligence Modeling for Energy Development (TIMED approach). The TIMED approach is visually represented by a figure expressing the idea of a co-construction decision and where ail stakeholders are the focus of this methodology. TIMED is composed of four modules: Multi-Criteria decision analysis, participatory geographic Information systems, active involvement of the stakeholders and scientific knowledge/local knowledge. The integration of these four modules allows for the analysis of different implementation scenarios of wind turbines in order to choose the best one based on a participatory and transparent decision-making process that takes into account stakeholders' concerns. The second objective enabled the testing of TIMED in an ex-post experience of a wind farm in operation since 2006. In this test, II people participated representing four stakeholder' categories: the private sector, the public sector, experts and civil society. This test allowed us to analyze the current situation in which wind projects are currently developed in Quebec. The concerns of some stakeholders regarding situations that are not considered in the current context were explored through a third goal. This third objective allowed us to make simulations taking into account the assumptions of strategic levels. Examples of the strategic level are the communication tools used to approach the host community and the park property type. Finally, the fourth objective, a SWOT analysis with the participation of eight experts, allowed us to verify the extent to which TIMED approach succeeded in constructing four fields for participatory decision-making: physical, intellectual, emotional and procedural. From these facts, 116 strengths, 28 weaknesses, 32 constraints and 54 opportunities were identified. Contributions, applications, limitations and extensions of this research are based on giving a participatory decision-making methodology taking into account socio-cultural, environmental and economic variables; making reflection sessions on a wind farm in operation; acquiring MCDA knowledge for participants involved in testing the proposed methodology; taking into account the physical, intellectual, emotional and procedural spaces to al1iculate a participatory decision; using the proposed methodology in renewable energy sources other than wind; the need to an interdisciplinary team for the methodology application; access to quality data; access to information technologies; the right to public participation; the neutrality of experts; the relationships between experts and non-experts; cultural constraints; improvement of designed indicators; the implementation of a Web platform for participatory decision-making and writing a manual on the use of the developed methodology. Keywords: wind farm, multicriteria decision, geographic information systems, TIMED approach, sustainable wind energy projects development, renewable energy, social participation, robustness concern, SWOT analysis.

Aids to navigation service force mix 2000 project. Volume 2 : development and application of an aids to navigation service force mix decision support system : aid assignments and vessel summary reports

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1992-06-01

The Aids to Navigation (ATON) Service Force Mix (SFM) 2000 Project is documented in a Project Overview and three separately bound volumes. This is Volume II. The Project Overview describes the purpose, approach, analysis, and results of the ATON SFM ...

Mainstreaming Climate Change: Recent and Ongoing Efforts to Understand, Improve, and Expand Consideration of Climate Change in Federal Water Resources Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferguson, I. M.; McGuire, M.; Broman, D.; Gangopadhyay, S.

2017-12-01

The Bureau of Reclamation is a Federal agency tasked with developing and managing water supply and hydropower projects in the Western U.S. Climate and hydrologic variability and change significantly impact management actions and outcomes across Reclamation's programs and initiatives, including water resource planning and operations, infrastructure design and maintenance, hydropower generation, and ecosystem restoration, among others. Planning, design, and implementation of these programs therefore requires consideration of future climate and hydrologic conditions will impact program objectives. Over the past decade, Reclamation and other Federal agencies have adopted new guidelines, directives, and mandates that require consideration of climate change in water resources planning and decision making. Meanwhile, the scientific community has developed a large number of climate projections, along with an array of models, methods, and tools to facilitate consideration of climate projections in planning and decision making. However, water resources engineers, planners, and decision makers continue to face challenges regarding how best to use the available data and tools to support major decisions, including decisions regarding infrastructure investments and long-term operating criteria. This presentation will discuss recent and ongoing research towards understanding, improving, and expanding consideration of climate projections and related uncertainties in Federal water resources planning and decision making. These research efforts address a variety of challenges, including: How to choose between available climate projection datasets and related methods, models, and tools—many of which are considered experimental or research tools? How to select an appropriate decision framework when design or operating alternatives may differ between climate scenarios? How to effectively communicate results of a climate impacts analysis to decision makers? And, how to improve robustness and resilience of water resources systems in the face of significant uncertainty? Discussion will focus on the intersection between technical challenges and decision making paradigms and the need for improved scientist-decision maker engagement through the lens of this Federal water management agency.

Deployed Analyst History Report, Volume 2. Analytic Support to Combat Operations in the Philippines (2011-2014)

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) Analysis Center (TRAC) to the Philippines for Operation ENDURING FREEDOM – Philippines (OEF-P). PROJECT...management, doctrine and force development, training management, system testing, system acquisition, decision analysis, and resource management, as...influenced procurement decisions and reshaped Army doctrine . Additionally, CAA itself has benefited in numerous ways. Combat experience provides analysts

Probabilistic approach to long range planning of manpower

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lejk, R. A.

1967-01-01

Publication presents a total long range planning model for project oriented organizations. The total model consists of planning systems which originate - /1/ at the project level and consolidate into an overall plan, and /2/ from a budetary ceiling and allocate to the individual projects. Analysis of /1/ and /2/ is provided for management decision making.

A decision-making tool for incorporating sustainability measures into pavement design : research project capsule.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-10-01

The objective of the proposed study is to conceive and develop a decision-making tool : for evaluating sustainability of pavement designs based on a cradle-to-grave analysis. : This tool will utilize EPDs to enhance the reliability of the assessment ...

Real options analysis for photovoltaic project under climate uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kyeongseok; Kim, Sejong; Kim, Hyoungkwan

2016-08-01

The decision on photovoltaic project depends on the level of climate environments. Changes in temperature and insolation affect photovoltaic output. It is important for investors to consider future climate conditions for determining investments on photovoltaic projects. We propose a real options-based framework to assess economic feasibility of photovoltaic project under climate change. The framework supports investors to evaluate climate change impact on photovoltaic projects under future climate uncertainty.

Research on Bidding Decision-making of International Public-Private Partnership Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zhen Yu; Zhang, Shui Bo; Liu, Xin Yan

2018-06-01

In order to select the optimal quasi-bidding project for an investment enterprise, a bidding decision-making model for international PPP projects was established in this paper. Firstly, the literature frequency statistics method was adopted to screen out the bidding decision-making indexes, and accordingly the bidding decision-making index system for international PPP projects was constructed. Then, the group decision-making characteristic root method, the entropy weight method, and the optimization model based on least square method were used to set the decision-making index weights. The optimal quasi-bidding project was thus determined by calculating the consistent effect measure of each decision-making index value and the comprehensive effect measure of each quasi-bidding project. Finally, the bidding decision-making model for international PPP projects was further illustrated by a hypothetical case. This model can effectively serve as a theoretical foundation and technical support for the bidding decision-making of international PPP projects.

PSP, TSP, XP, CMMI...Eating the Alphabet Soup!

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-05-19

Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other...4 Q tit t Continuous process improvement Organizational Performance Management Causal Analysis and Resolution Level Focus Process Areas Requirements...Project Management process standardization Risk management Decision Analysis and Resolution Product Integration 2 M d R i t t anage Basic Project

Enhancement of the FDOT's project level and network level bridge management analysis tools

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-02-01

Over several years, the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) has been implementing the AASHTO Pontis Bridge Management System to support network-level and project-level decision making in the headquarters and district offices. Pontis is an int...

Triple Value System Dynamics Modeling to Help Stakeholders Engage with Food-Energy-Water Problems

EPA Science Inventory

Triple Value (3V) Community scoping projects and Triple Value Simulation (3VS) models help decision makers and stakeholders apply systems-analysis methodology to complex problems related to food production, water quality, and energy use. 3VS models are decision support tools that...

A Hierarchical Analysis of Bridge Decision Makers; the Role of New Technology Adoption in the Timber Bridge Market: Special Project Fiscal Year 1992

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-08-01

Bridge design engineers and local highway officials make bridge replacement decsions across the U.S. The Analytical Hierarchical Process was used to characterize the bridge material selection decisions of these individuals. State Departments of Trans...

Modeling Hospital Discharge and Placement Decision Making: Whither the Elderly.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clark, William F.; Pelham, Anabel O.

This paper examines the hospital discharge decision making process for elderly patients, based on observations of the operations of a long term care agency, the California Multipurpose Senior Services Project. The analysis is divided into four components: actors, factors, processes, and strategy critique. The first section discusses the major…

Linking land-use projections and forest fragmentation analysis.

Treesearch

Andrew J. Plantinga; Ralph J. Alig; Henry Eichman; David J. Lewis

2007-01-01

An econometric model of private land-use decisions is used to project land use to 2030 for each county in the continental United States. On a national scale, forest area is projected to increase overall between 0.1 and 0.2 percent per year between now and 2030. However, forest area is projected to decrease in a majority of regions, including the key forestry regions of...

Collaborative decision-making on wind power projects based on AHP method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badea, A.; Proştean, G.; Tămăşilă, M.; Vârtosu, A.

2017-01-01

The complexity of projects implementation in Renewable Energy Sources (RES) requires finding collaborative alliances between suppliers and project developers in RES. Links activities in supply chain in RES, respectively, transportation of heavy components, processing orders to purchase quality raw materials, storage and materials handling, packaging, and other complex activities requiring a logistics system collaboratively to be permanently dimensioned properly selected and monitored. Requirements imposed by stringency of wind power energy projects implementation inevitably involves constraints in infrastructure, implementation and logistics. Thus, following an extensive research in RES project, to eliminate these constraints were identified alternative collaboration to provide feasible solutions on different levels of performance. The paper presents a critical analysis of different collaboration alternatives in supply chain for RES projects, selecting the ones most suitable for particular situations by using decision-making method Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The role of AHP method was to formulate a decision model by which can be establish the collaboration alternative choice through mathematical calculation to reduce the impact created by constraints encountered. The solution provided through AHP provides a framework for detecting optimal alternative collaboration between suppliers and project developers in RES and avoids some breaks in the chain by resizing safety buffers for leveling orders in RES projects.

Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment, SAGE III on ISS, An Earth Science Mission on the International Space Station, Schedule Risk Analysis, A Project Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bonine, Lauren

2015-01-01

The presentation provides insight into the schedule risk analysis process used by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III on the International Space Station Project. The presentation focuses on the schedule risk analysis process highlighting the methods for identification of risk inputs, the inclusion of generic risks identified outside the traditional continuous risk management process, and the development of tailored analysis products used to improve risk informed decision making.

Selection of adequate site location during early stages of construction project management: A multi-criteria decision analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marović, Ivan; Hanak, Tomaš

2017-10-01

In the management of construction projects special attention should be given to the planning as the most important phase of decision-making process. Quality decision-making based on adequate and comprehensive collaboration of all involved stakeholders is crucial in project’s early stages. Fundamental reasons for existence of this problem arise from: specific conditions of construction industry (final products are inseparable from the location i.e. location has a strong influence of building design and its structural characteristics as well as technology which will be used during construction), investors’ desires and attitudes, and influence of socioeconomic and environment aspects. Considering all mentioned reasons one can conclude that selection of adequate construction site location for future investment is complex, low structured and multi-criteria problem. To take into account all the dimensions, the proposed model for selection of adequate site location is devised. The model is based on AHP (for designing the decision-making hierarchy) and PROMETHEE (for pairwise comparison of investment locations) methods. As a result of mixing basis feature of both methods, operational synergies can be achieved in multi-criteria decision analysis. Such gives the decision-maker a sense of assurance, knowing that if the procedure proposed by the presented model has been followed, it will lead to a rational decision, carefully and systematically thought out.

An analytical study of the interaction of technological and administrative decision-making in the defining of Mars Project Viking. Ph.D. Thesis - Union College

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcnulty, J. F.

1974-01-01

An analysis of the history and background of the Mars Project Viking is presented. The organization and functions of the engineering group responsible for the project are defined. The design and configuration of the proposed space vehicle are examined. Illustrations and tables of data are provided to complete the coverage of the project.

Decision analysis of shoreline protection under climate change uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chao, Philip T.; Hobbs, Benjamin F.

1997-04-01

If global warming occurs, it could significantly affect water resource distribution and availability. Yet it is unclear whether the prospect of such change is relevant to water resources management decisions being made today. We model a shoreline protection decision problem with a stochastic dynamic program (SDP) to determine whether consideration of the possibility of climate change would alter the decision. Three questions are addressed with the SDP: (l) How important is climate change compared to other uncertainties?, (2) What is the economic loss if climate change uncertainty is ignored?, and (3) How does belief in climate change affect the timing of the decision? In the case study, sensitivity analysis shows that uncertainty in real discount rates has a stronger effect upon the decision than belief in climate change. Nevertheless, a strong belief in climate change makes the shoreline protection project less attractive and often alters the decision to build it.

Project Assessment Framework through Design (PAFTD) - A Project Assessment Framework in Support of Strategic Decision Making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Depenbrock, Brett T.; Balint, Tibor S.; Sheehy, Jeffrey A.

2014-01-01

Research and development organizations that push the innovation edge of technology frequently encounter challenges when attempting to identify an investment strategy and to accurately forecast the cost and schedule performance of selected projects. Fast moving and complex environments require managers to quickly analyze and diagnose the value of returns on investment versus allocated resources. Our Project Assessment Framework through Design (PAFTD) tool facilitates decision making for NASA senior leadership to enable more strategic and consistent technology development investment analysis, beginning at implementation and continuing through the project life cycle. The framework takes an integrated approach by leveraging design principles of useability, feasibility, and viability and aligns them with methods employed by NASA's Independent Program Assessment Office for project performance assessment. The need exists to periodically revisit the justification and prioritization of technology development investments as changes occur over project life cycles. The framework informs management rapidly and comprehensively about diagnosed internal and external root causes of project performance.

Situated Analysis of Team Handball Players' Decisions: An Exploratory Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lenzen, Benoit; Theunissen, Catherine; Cloes, Marc

2009-01-01

This exploratory study aimed to investigate elements involved in decision making in team handball live situations and to provide coaches and educators with teaching recommendations. The study was positioned within the framework of the situated-action paradigm of which two aspects were of particular interest for this project: (a) the relationship…

Manned space flight in debate - An interdisciplinary project for technical decision making will make the discussion more rational

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gethmann, Carl F.; Janich, Peter; Sax, Hartmut

1992-08-01

Arguments for manned spaceflight that do not depend on cost-benefit analysis are examined. Project Safire is used to illustrate arguments based on the need to further international cooperation, promote national morale, and motivate technological investigations.

Issues in NASA Program and Project Management:: A Collection of Papers on Aerospace Management Issues (Supplement 11)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, Edward J. (Editor); Lawbaugh, William M. (Editor)

1996-01-01

Papers address the following topics: NASA's project management development process; Better decisions through structural analysis; NASA's commercial technology management system; Today's management techniques and tools; Program control in NASA - needs and opportunities; and Resources for NASA managers.

Re-examination of sea lamprey control policies for the St. Marys River: Completion of an adaptive management cycle

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Michael L.; Brenden, Travis O.; Irwin, Brian J.

2015-01-01

The St. Marys River (SMR) historically has been a major producer of sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) in the Laurentian Great Lakes. In the early 2000s, a decision analysis (DA) project was conducted to evaluate sea lamprey control policies for the SMR; this project suggested that an integrated policy of trapping, sterile male releases, and Bayluscide treatment was the most cost-effective policy. Further, it concluded that formal assessment of larval sea lamprey abundance and distribution in the SMR would be valuable for future evaluation of control strategies. We updated this earlier analysis, adding information from annual larval assessments conducted since 1999 and evaluating additional control policies. Bayluscide treatments continued to be critical for sea lamprey control, but high recruitment compensation minimized the effectiveness of trapping and sterile male release under current feasible ranges. Because Bayluscide control is costly, development of strategies to enhance trapping success remains a priority. This study illustrates benefits of an adaptive management cycle, wherein models inform decisions, are updated based on learning achieved from those decisions, and ultimately inform future decisions.

Evaluation and selection of decision-making methods to assess landfill mining projects.

PubMed

Hermann, Robert; Baumgartner, Rupert J; Vorbach, Stefan; Ragossnig, Arne; Pomberger, Roland

2015-09-01

For the first time in Austria, fundamental technological and economic studies on recovering secondary raw materials from large landfills have been carried out, based on the 'LAMIS - Landfill Mining Austria' pilot project. A main focus of the research - and the subject of this article - was to develop an assessment or decision-making procedure that allows landfill owners to thoroughly examine the feasibility of a landfill mining project in advance. Currently there are no standard procedures that would sufficiently cover all the multiple-criteria requirements. The basic structure of the multiple attribute decision making process was used to narrow down on selection, conceptual design and assessment of suitable procedures. Along with a breakdown into preliminary and main assessment, the entire foundation required was created, such as definitions of requirements to an assessment method, selection and accurate description of the various assessment criteria and classification of the target system for the present 'landfill mining' vs. 'retaining the landfill in after-care' decision-making problem. Based on these studies, cost-utility analysis and the analytical-hierarchy process were selected from the range of multiple attribute decision-making procedures and examined in detail. Overall, both methods have their pros and cons with regard to their use for assessing landfill mining projects. Merging these methods or connecting them with single-criteria decision-making methods (like the net present value method) may turn out to be reasonable and constitute an appropriate assessment method. © The Author(s) 2015.

Postoptimality Analysis in the Selection of Technology Portfolios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adumitroaie, Virgil; Shelton, Kacie; Elfes, Alberto; Weisbin, Charles R.

2006-01-01

This slide presentation reviews a process of postoptimally analysing the selection of technology portfolios. The rationale for the analysis stems from the need for consistent, transparent and auditable decision making processes and tools. The methodology is used to assure that project investments are selected through an optimization of net mission value. The main intent of the analysis is to gauge the degree of confidence in the optimal solution and to provide the decision maker with an array of viable selection alternatives which take into account input uncertainties and possibly satisfy non-technical constraints. A few examples of the analysis are reviewed. The goal of the postoptimality study is to enhance and improve the decision-making process by providing additional qualifications and substitutes to the optimal solution.

Hydropower Manufacturing and Supply Chain Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cotrell, Jason R

Hydropower Manufacturing and Supply Chain Analysis presentation from the WPTO FY14-FY16 Peer Review. The project objective is to provide data and insights to inform investment strategies, policy, and other decisions to promote economic growth and manufacturing.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pardo-Bosch, Francesc, E-mail: francesc.pardo@upc.edu; Political Science Department, University of California - Berkeley; Aguado, Antonio, E-mail: antonio.aguado@upc.edu

Infrastructure construction, one of the biggest driving forces of the economy nowadays, requires a huge analysis and clear transparency to decide what projects have to be executed with the few resources available. With the aim to provide the public administrations a tool with which they can make their decisions easier, the Sustainability Index of Infrastructure Projects (SIIP) has been defined, with a multi-criteria decision system called MIVES, in order to classify non-uniform investments. This index evaluates, in two inseparable stages, the contribution to the sustainable development of each infrastructure project, analyzing its social, environmental and economic impact. The result ofmore » the SIIP allows to decide the order with which projects will be prioritized. The case of study developed proves the adaptability and utility of this tool for the ordinary budget management.« less

The Application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis to the Ioland Water Treatment Plant in Lusaka, Zambia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kucharski, John; Tkach, Mark; Olszewski, Jennifer; Chaudhry, Rabia; Mendoza, Guillermo

2016-04-01

This presentation demonstrates the application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) at Zambia's principal water treatment facility, The Iolanda Water Treatment Plant. The water treatment plant is prone to unacceptable failures during periods of low hydropower production at the Kafue Gorge Dam Hydroelectric Power Plant. The case study explores approaches of increasing the water treatment plant's ability to deliver acceptable levels of service under the range of current and potential future climate states. The objective of the study is to investigate alternative investments to build system resilience that might have been informed by the CRIDA process, and to evaluate the extra resource requirements by a bilateral donor agency to implement the CRIDA process. The case study begins with an assessment of the water treatment plant's vulnerability to climate change. It does so by following general principals described in "Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resource Planning and Project Design: the Decision Tree Framework". By utilizing relatively simple bootstrapping methods a range of possible future climate states is generated while avoiding the use of more complex and costly downscaling methodologies; that are beyond the budget and technical capacity of many teams. The resulting climate vulnerabilities and uncertainty in the climate states that produce them are analyzed as part of a "Level of Concern" analysis. CRIDA principals are then applied to this Level of Concern analysis in order to arrive at a set of actionable water management decisions. The principal goals of water resource management is to transform variable, uncertain hydrology into dependable services (e.g. water supply, flood risk reduction, ecosystem benefits, hydropower production, etc…). Traditional approaches to climate adaptation require the generation of predicted future climate states but do little guide decision makers how this information should impact decision making. In this context it is not surprising that the increased hydrologic variability and uncertainty produced by many climate risk analyses bedevil water resource decision making. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) approach builds on work found in "Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resource Planning and Project Design: the Decision Tree Framework" which provide guidance of vulnerability assessments. It guides practitioners through a "Level of Concern" analysis where climate vulnerabilities are analyzed to produce actionable alternatives and decisions.

Lakeside: Merging Urban Design with Scientific Analysis

ScienceCinema

Guzowski, Leah; Catlett, Charlie; Woodbury, Ed

2018-01-16

Researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy's Argonne National Laboratory and the University of Chicago are developing tools that merge urban design with scientific analysis to improve the decision-making process associated with large-scale urban developments. One such tool, called LakeSim, has been prototyped with an initial focus on consumer-driven energy and transportation demand, through a partnership with the Chicago-based architectural and engineering design firm Skidmore, Owings & Merrill, Clean Energy Trust and developer McCaffery Interests. LakeSim began with the need to answer practical questions about urban design and planning, requiring a better understanding about the long-term impact of design decisions on energy and transportation demand for a 600-acre development project on Chicago's South Side - the Chicago Lakeside Development project.

NREL's System Advisor Model Simplifies Complex Energy Analysis (Fact Sheet)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

2015-01-01

NREL has developed a tool -- the System Advisor Model (SAM) -- that can help decision makers analyze cost, performance, and financing of any size grid-connected solar, wind, or geothermal power project. Manufacturers, engineering and consulting firms, research and development firms, utilities, developers, venture capital firms, and international organizations use SAM for end-to-end analysis that helps determine whether and how to make investments in renewable energy projects.

Trusted Advisors, Decision Models and Other Keys to Communicating Science to Decision Makers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, E.

2006-12-01

Water resource management decisions often involve multiple parties engaged in contentious negotiations that try to navigate through complex combinations of legal, social, hydrologic, financial, and engineering considerations. The standard approach for resolving these issues is some form of multi-party negotiation, a formal court decision, or a combination of the two. In all these cases, the role of the decision maker(s) is to choose and implement the best option that fits the needs and wants of the community. However, each path to a decision carries the risk of technical and/or financial infeasibility as well as the possibility of unintended consequences. To help reduce this risk, decision makers often rely on some type of predictive analysis from which they can evaluate the projected consequences of their decisions. Typically, decision makers are supported in the analysis process by trusted advisors who engage in the analysis as well as the day to day tasks associated with multi-party negotiations. In the case of water resource management, the analysis is frequently a numerical model or set of models that can simulate various management decisions across multiple systems and output results that illustrate the impact on areas of concern. Thus, in order to communicate scientific knowledge to the decision makers, the quality of the communication between the analysts, the trusted advisor, and the decision maker must be clear and direct. To illustrate this concept, a multi-attribute decision analysis matrix will be used to outline the value of computer model-based collaborative negotiation approaches to guide water resources decision making and communication with decision makers. In addition, the critical role of the trusted advisor and other secondary participants in the decision process will be discussed using examples from recent water negotiations.

The development of a multi-criteria decision analysis aid to help with contraceptive choices: My Contraception Tool.

PubMed

French, Rebecca S; Cowan, Frances M; Wellings, Kaye; Dowie, Jack

2014-04-01

My Contraception Tool (MCT) applies the principles of multi-criteria decision analysis to the choice of contraceptive method. Its purpose is to make the decision-making process transparent to the user and to suggest a method to them based on their own preferences. The contraceptive option that emerges as optimal from the analysis takes account of the probability of a range of outcomes and the relative weight ascribed to them by the user. The development of MCT was a collaborative project between London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Brook, FPA and Maldaba Ltd. MCT is available online via the Brook and FPA websites. In this article we describe MCT's development and how it works. Further work is needed to assess the impact it has on decision quality and contraceptive behaviour.

Hydropower licensing and evolving climate: climate knowledge to support risk assessment for long-term infrastructure decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, A. J.; Walker, S. H.; Trainor, S. F.; Cherry, J. E.

2014-12-01

This presentation focuses on linking climate knowledge to the complicated decision process for hydropower dam licensing, and the affected parties involved in that process. The U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issues of licenses for nonfederal hydroelectric operations, typically 30-50 year licenses, and longer infrastructure lifespan, a similar time frame as the anticipated risks of changing climate and hydrology. Resources managed by other federal and state agencies such as the NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service may be affected by new or re-licensed projects. The federal Integrated Licensing Process gives the opportunity for affected parties to recommend issues for consultative investigation and possible mitigation, such as impacts to downstream fisheries. New or re-licensed projects have the potential to "pre-adapt" by considering and incorporating risks of climate change into their planned operations as license terms and conditions. Hundreds of hydropower facilities will be up for relicensing in the coming years (over 100 in the western Sierra Nevada alone, and large-scale water projects such as the proposed Lake Powell Pipeline), as well as proposed new dams such as the Susitna project in Alaska. Therefore, there is a need for comprehensive guidance on delivering climate analysis to support understanding of risks of hydropower projects to other affected resources, and decisions on licensing. While each project will have a specific context, many of the questions will be similar. We also will discuss best practices for the use of climate science in water project planning and management, and how creating the best and most appropriate science is also still a developing art. We will discuss the potential reliability of that science for consideration in long term planning, licensing, and mitigation planning for those projects. For science to be "actionable," that science must be understood and accepted by the potential users. This process is a negotiation, with climate scientists needing to understand the concerns of users and respond, and users developing a better understanding of the state of climate science in order to make an informed choice. We will also discuss what is needed to streamline providing that analysis for the many re-licensing decisions expected in the upcoming years.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lockwood, Jr., Neil; McLellan, Jason G; Crossley, Brian

The Resident Fish Stock Status above Chief Joseph and Grand Coulee Dams Project, commonly known as the Joint Stock Assessment Project (JSAP) is a management tool using ecosystem principles to manage artificial fish assemblages and native fish in altered environments existing in the Columbia River System above Chief Joseph and Grand Coulee Dams (blocked area). The three-phase approach of this project will enhance the fisheries resources of the blocked area by identifying data gaps, filling data gaps with research, and implementing management recommendations based on research results. The Blocked Area fisheries information housed in a central location will allow managersmore » to view the entire system while making decisions, rather than basing management decisions on isolated portions of the system. The JSAP (NWPPC program measure 10.8B.26) is designed and guided jointly by fisheries managers in the blocked area and the Columbia Basin blocked area management plan (1998). The initial year of the project (1997) identified the need for a central data storage and analysis facility, coordination with the StreamNet project, compilation of blocked area fisheries information, and a report on the ecological condition of the Spokane River System. These needs were addressed in 1998 by acquiring a central location with a data storage and analysis system, coordinating a pilot project with StreamNet, compiling fisheries distribution data throughout the blocked area, identifying data gaps based on compiled information, and researching the ecological condition of the Spokane River. In order to ensure that any additional information collected throughout the life of this project will be easily stored and manipulated by the central storage facility, it was necessary to develop standardized methodologies between the JSAP fisheries managers. The use of common collection and analytical tools is essential to the process of streamlining joint management decisions. In 1999 and 2000 the project began to address some of the identified data gaps, throughout the blocked area, with a variety of newly developed sampling projects, as well as, continuing with ongoing data collection of established projects.« less

Sophisticated Approval Voting, Ignorance Priors, and Plurality Heuristics: A Behavioral Social Choice Analysis in a Thurstonian Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Regenwetter, Michel; Ho, Moon-Ho R.; Tsetlin, Ilia

2007-01-01

This project reconciles historically distinct paradigms at the interface between individual and social choice theory, as well as between rational and behavioral decision theory. The authors combine a utility-maximizing prescriptive rule for sophisticated approval voting with the ignorance prior heuristic from behavioral decision research and two…

Decision analysis for designing marine protected areas for multiple species with uncertain fishery status.

PubMed

White, J Wilson; Botsford, Louis W; Moffitt, Elizabeth A; Fischer, Douglas T

2010-09-01

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are growing in popularity as a conservation tool, and there are increasing calls for additional MPAs. Meta-analyses indicate that most MPAs successfully meet the minimal goal of increasing biomass inside the MPA, while some do not, leaving open the important question of what makes MPAs successful. An often-overlooked aspect of this problem is that the success of fishery management outside MPA boundaries (i.e., whether a population is overfished) affects how well MPAs meet both conservation goals (e.g., increased biomass) and economic goals (e.g., minimal negative effects on fishery yield). Using a simple example of a system with homogeneous habitat and periodically spaced MPAs, we show that, as area in MPAs increases, (1) conservation value (biomass) may initially be zero, implying no benefit, then at some point increases monotonically; and (2) fishery yield may be zero, then increases monotonically to a maximum beyond which further increase in MPA area causes yield to decline. Importantly, the points at which these changes in slope occur vary among species and depend on management outside MPAs. Decision makers considering the effects of a potential system of MPAs on multiple species are confronted by a number of such cost-benefit curves, and it is usually impossible to maximize benefits and minimize costs for all species. Moreover, the precise shape of each curve is unknown due to uncertainty regarding the fishery status of each species. Here we describe a decision-analytic approach that incorporates existing information on fishery stock status to present decision makers with the range of likely outcomes of MPA implementation. To summarize results from many species whose overfishing status is uncertain, our decision-analysis approach involves weighted averages over both overfishing uncertainty and species. In an example from an MPA decision process in California, USA, an optimistic projection of future fishery management success led to recommendation of fewer and smaller MPAs than that derived from a more pessimistic projection of future management success. This example illustrates how information on fishery status can be used to project potential outcomes of MPA implementation within a decision analysis framework and highlights the need for better population information.

Decisions on new product development under uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yeu-Shiang; Liu, Li-Chen; Ho, Jyh-Wen

2015-04-01

In an intensively competitive market, developing a new product has become a valuable strategy for companies to establish their market positions and enhance their competitive advantages. Therefore, it is essential to effectively manage the process of new product development (NPD). However, since various problems may arise in NPD projects, managers should set up some milestones and subsequently construct evaluative mechanisms to assess their feasibility. This paper employed the approach of Bayesian decision analysis to deal with the two crucial uncertainties for NPD, which are the future market share and the responses of competitors. The proposed decision process can provide a systematic analytical procedure to determine whether an NPD project should be continued or not under the consideration of whether effective usage is being made of the organisational resources. Accordingly, the proposed decision model can assist the managers in effectively addressing the NPD issue under the competitive market.

76 FR 66891 - Committee on Rulemaking

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-28

...;and investigations, committee meetings, agency decisions and rulings, #0;delegations of authority... Professor Jack Beermann is the consultant, and the Regulatory Analysis Project, for which Curtis Copeland is...

Proposal of Polish guidelines for conducting financial analysis and their comparison to existing guidance on budget impact in other countries.

PubMed

Orlewska, Ewa; Mierzejewski, Piotr

2004-01-01

Financial analysis (budget impact analysis, BIA) is increasingly required by decision-makers to ascertain the macroeconomic consequences of new product reimbursement in addition to proof of cost-effectiveness. Poland is in the process of drafting country-specific guidelines for BIA, positioned as complementary to economic evaluation in decision-making The aim of this article is to present the Polish project and compare it with currently available guidance. A checklist was developed that focuses on issues that are unique to BIA. An analysis of the differences between different national guidelines and their Polish counterparts was subsequently undertaken. The Polish project of BIA guidelines is composed of two sections. The first section presents the objective, the use of BIA, the responsibility for the preparation, and the target audience. The second section presents important methodological aspects that researchers should keep in mind when carrying out BIA. In comparison to existing guidance the Polish project appears to be more detailed. It includes more precise recommendations on perspective, time horizon, and reliability of data sources; reporting of results; rates of adoption of new therapies; and the probability of redeploying resources. Although there is an increased demand for BIA, there is only limited guidance on how such studies should be undertaken. It is hoped that the Polish guidelines can contribute to the development of such analyses and deliver benefit for Polish health-care decision-makers and beyond.

A decision-analytic approach to the optimal allocation of resources for endangered species consultation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Converse, Sarah J.; Shelley, Kevin J.; Morey, Steve; Chan, Jeffrey; LaTier, Andrea; Scafidi, Carolyn; Crouse, Deborah T.; Runge, Michael C.

2011-01-01

The resources available to support conservation work, whether time or money, are limited. Decision makers need methods to help them identify the optimal allocation of limited resources to meet conservation goals, and decision analysis is uniquely suited to assist with the development of such methods. In recent years, a number of case studies have been described that examine optimal conservation decisions under fiscal constraints; here we develop methods to look at other types of constraints, including limited staff and regulatory deadlines. In the US, Section Seven consultation, an important component of protection under the federal Endangered Species Act, requires that federal agencies overseeing projects consult with federal biologists to avoid jeopardizing species. A benefit of consultation is negotiation of project modifications that lessen impacts on species, so staff time allocated to consultation supports conservation. However, some offices have experienced declining staff, potentially reducing the efficacy of consultation. This is true of the US Fish and Wildlife Service's Washington Fish and Wildlife Office (WFWO) and its consultation work on federally-threatened bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). To improve effectiveness, WFWO managers needed a tool to help allocate this work to maximize conservation benefits. We used a decision-analytic approach to score projects based on the value of staff time investment, and then identified an optimal decision rule for how scored projects would be allocated across bins, where projects in different bins received different time investments. We found that, given current staff, the optimal decision rule placed 80% of informal consultations (those where expected effects are beneficial, insignificant, or discountable) in a short bin where they would be completed without negotiating changes. The remaining 20% would be placed in a long bin, warranting an investment of seven days, including time for negotiation. For formal consultations (those where expected effects are significant), 82% of projects would be placed in a long bin, with an average time investment of 15. days. The WFWO is using this decision-support tool to help allocate staff time. Because workload allocation decisions are iterative, we describe a monitoring plan designed to increase the tool's efficacy over time. This work has general application beyond Section Seven consultation, in that it provides a framework for efficient investment of staff time in conservation when such time is limited and when regulatory deadlines prevent an unconstrained approach. ?? 2010.

Using Spreadsheet Modeling Techniques for Capital Project Review. AIR 1985 Annual Forum Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaynor, Robert K.

The value of microcomputer modeling tools and spreadsheets to help college institutional researchers analyze proposed capital projects is discussed, along with strengths and weaknesses of different software packages. Capital budgeting is the analysis that supports decisions about the allocation and commitment of funds to long-term capital…

Real Option in Capital Budgeting for SMEs: Insight from Steel Company

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muharam, F. M.; Tarrazon, M. A.

2017-06-01

Complex components of investment projects can only be analysed accurately if flexibility and comprehensive consideration of uncertainty are incorporated into valuation. Discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis has failed to cope with strategic future alternatives that affect the right value of investment projects. Real option valuation (ROV) proves to be the right tool for this purpose since it enables to calculate the enlarged or strategic Net Present Value (ENPV). This study attempts to provide an insight of the usage of ROV in capital budgeting and investment decision-making processes of SMEs. Exploring into the first stage processing of steel industry, analysis of alternatives to cancel, to expand, to defer or to abandon is performed. Completed with multiple options interaction and a sensitivity analysis, our findings prove that the application of ROV is beneficial for complex investment projects independently from the size of the company and particularly suitable in scenarios with scarce resources. The application of Real Option Valuation (ROV) is plausible and beneficial for SMEs to be incorporated in the strategic decision making process.

Error Analysis of CM Data Products Sources of Uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hunt, Brian D.; Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia; Cochran, Lainy Dromgoole

This goal of this project is to address the current inability to assess the overall error and uncertainty of data products developed and distributed by DOE’s Consequence Management (CM) Program. This is a widely recognized shortfall, the resolution of which would provide a great deal of value and defensibility to the analysis results, data products, and the decision making process that follows this work. A global approach to this problem is necessary because multiple sources of error and uncertainty contribute to the ultimate production of CM data products. Therefore, this project will require collaboration with subject matter experts across amore » wide range of FRMAC skill sets in order to quantify the types of uncertainty that each area of the CM process might contain and to understand how variations in these uncertainty sources contribute to the aggregated uncertainty present in CM data products. The ultimate goal of this project is to quantify the confidence level of CM products to ensure that appropriate public and worker protections decisions are supported by defensible analysis.« less

eSACP - a new Nordic initiative towards developing statistical climate services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorarinsdottir, Thordis; Thejll, Peter; Drews, Martin; Guttorp, Peter; Venälainen, Ari; Uotila, Petteri; Benestad, Rasmus; Mesquita, Michel d. S.; Madsen, Henrik; Fox Maule, Cathrine

2015-04-01

The Nordic research council NordForsk has recently announced its support for a new 3-year research initiative on "statistical analysis of climate projections" (eSACP). eSACP will focus on developing e-science tools and services based on statistical analysis of climate projections for the purpose of helping decision-makers and planners in the face of expected future challenges in regional climate change. The motivation behind the project is the growing recognition in our society that forecasts of future climate change is associated with various sources of uncertainty, and that any long-term planning and decision-making dependent on a changing climate must account for this. At the same time there is an obvious gap between scientists from different fields and between practitioners in terms of understanding how climate information relates to different parts of the "uncertainty cascade". In eSACP we will develop generic e-science tools and statistical climate services to facilitate the use of climate projections by decision-makers and scientists from all fields for climate impact analyses and for the development of robust adaptation strategies, which properly (in a statistical sense) account for the inherent uncertainty. The new tool will be publically available and include functionality to utilize the extensive and dynamically growing repositories of data and use state-of-the-art statistical techniques to quantify the uncertainty and innovative approaches to visualize the results. Such a tool will not only be valuable for future assessments and underpin the development of dedicated climate services, but will also assist the scientific community in making more clearly its case on the consequences of our changing climate to policy makers and the general public. The eSACP project is led by Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Norwegian Computing Center, and also includes the Finnish Meteorological Institute, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, the Technical University of Denmark and the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway. This poster will present details of focus areas in the project and show some examples of the expected analysis tools.

76 FR 36515 - Rangeland Allotment Management Planning on the Fall River and Oglala Geographic Areas, Pine Ridge...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-22

... full environmental analysis and decision-making process that will occur on the proposal so interested and affected people may become aware of how they may participate in the process and contribute to the... issued to update the project schedule. There will be a record of decision (ROD) for each geographic area...

Engaging stakeholders for adaptive management using structured decision analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Irwin, Elise R.; Kathryn, D.; Kennedy, Mickett

2009-01-01

Adaptive management is different from other types of management in that it includes all stakeholders (versus only policy makers) in the process, uses resource optimization techniques to evaluate competing objectives, and recognizes and attempts to reduce uncertainty inherent in natural resource systems. Management actions are negotiated by stakeholders, monitored results are compared to predictions of how the system should respond, and management strategies are adjusted in a “monitor-compare-adjust” iterative routine. Many adaptive management projects fail because of the lack of stakeholder identification, engagement, and continued involvement. Primary reasons for this vary but are usually related to either stakeholders not having ownership (or representation) in decision processes or disenfranchisement of stakeholders after adaptive management begins. We present an example in which stakeholders participated fully in adaptive management of a southeastern regulated river. Structured decision analysis was used to define management objectives and stakeholder values and to determine initial flow prescriptions. The process was transparent, and the visual nature of the modeling software allowed stakeholders to see how their interests and values were represented in the decision process. The development of a stakeholder governance structure and communication mechanism has been critical to the success of the project.

An adaptive approach to invasive plant management on U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service-owned native prairies in the Prairie Pothole Region: decision support under uncertainity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gannon, Jill J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Flanders-Wanner, Bridgette

2011-01-01

Much of the native prairie managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is extensively invaded by the introduced cool-season grasses smooth brome (Bromus inermis) and Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis). The central challenge to managers is selecting appropriate management actions in the face of biological and environmental uncertainties. We describe the technical components of a USGS management project, and explain how the components integrate and inform each other, how data feedback from individual cooperators serves to reduce uncertainty across the whole region, and how a successful adaptive management project is coordinated and maintained on a large scale. In partnership with the Service, the U.S. Geological Survey is developing an adaptive decision support framework to assist managers in selecting management actions under uncertainty and maximizing learning from management outcomes. The framework is built around practical constraints faced by refuge managers and includes identification of the management objective and strategies, analysis of uncertainty and construction of competing decision models, monitoring, and mechanisms for model feedback and decision selection. Nineteen Service field stations, spanning four states of the PPR, are participating in the project. They share a common management objective, available management strategies, and biological uncertainties. While the scope is broad, the project interfaces with individual land managers who provide refuge-specific information and receive updated decision guidance that incorporates understanding gained from the collective experience of all cooperators.

Consultant psychiatrists’ experiences of and attitudes towards shared decision making in antipsychotic prescribing, a qualitative study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Shared decision making represents a clinical consultation model where both clinician and service user are conceptualised as experts; information is shared bilaterally and joint treatment decisions are reached. Little previous research has been conducted to assess experience of this model in psychiatric practice. The current project therefore sought to explore the attitudes and experiences of consultant psychiatrists relating to shared decision making in the prescribing of antipsychotic medications. Methods A qualitative research design allowed the experiences and beliefs of participants in relation to shared decision making to be elicited. Purposive sampling was used to recruit participants from a range of clinical backgrounds and with varying length of clinical experience. A semi-structured interview schedule was utilised and was adapted in subsequent interviews to reflect emergent themes. Data analysis was completed in parallel with interviews in order to guide interview topics and to inform recruitment. A directed analysis method was utilised for interview analysis with themes identified being fitted to a framework identified from the research literature as applicable to the practice of shared decision making. Examples of themes contradictory to, or not adequately explained by, the framework were sought. Results A total of 26 consultant psychiatrists were interviewed. Participants expressed support for the shared decision making model, but also acknowledged that it was necessary to be flexible as the clinical situation dictated. A number of potential barriers to the process were perceived however: The commonest barrier was the clinician’s beliefs regarding the service users’ insight into their mental disorder, presented in some cases as an absolute barrier to shared decision making. In addition factors external to the clinician - service user relationship were identified as impacting on the decision making process, including; environmental factors, financial constraints as well as societal perceptions of mental disorder in general and antipsychotic medication in particular. Conclusions This project has allowed identification of potential barriers to shared decision making in psychiatric practice. Further work is necessary to observe the decision making process in clinical practice and also to identify means in which the identified barriers, in particular ‘lack of insight’, may be more effectively managed. PMID:24886121

Consultant psychiatrists' experiences of and attitudes towards shared decision making in antipsychotic prescribing, a qualitative study.

PubMed

Shepherd, Andrew; Shorthouse, Oliver; Gask, Linda

2014-05-01

Shared decision making represents a clinical consultation model where both clinician and service user are conceptualised as experts; information is shared bilaterally and joint treatment decisions are reached. Little previous research has been conducted to assess experience of this model in psychiatric practice. The current project therefore sought to explore the attitudes and experiences of consultant psychiatrists relating to shared decision making in the prescribing of antipsychotic medications. A qualitative research design allowed the experiences and beliefs of participants in relation to shared decision making to be elicited. Purposive sampling was used to recruit participants from a range of clinical backgrounds and with varying length of clinical experience. A semi-structured interview schedule was utilised and was adapted in subsequent interviews to reflect emergent themes.Data analysis was completed in parallel with interviews in order to guide interview topics and to inform recruitment. A directed analysis method was utilised for interview analysis with themes identified being fitted to a framework identified from the research literature as applicable to the practice of shared decision making. Examples of themes contradictory to, or not adequately explained by, the framework were sought. A total of 26 consultant psychiatrists were interviewed. Participants expressed support for the shared decision making model, but also acknowledged that it was necessary to be flexible as the clinical situation dictated. A number of potential barriers to the process were perceived however: The commonest barrier was the clinician's beliefs regarding the service users' insight into their mental disorder, presented in some cases as an absolute barrier to shared decision making. In addition factors external to the clinician - service user relationship were identified as impacting on the decision making process, including; environmental factors, financial constraints as well as societal perceptions of mental disorder in general and antipsychotic medication in particular. This project has allowed identification of potential barriers to shared decision making in psychiatric practice. Further work is necessary to observe the decision making process in clinical practice and also to identify means in which the identified barriers, in particular 'lack of insight', may be more effectively managed.

Valuing flexibilities in the design of urban water management systems.

PubMed

Deng, Yinghan; Cardin, Michel-Alexandre; Babovic, Vladan; Santhanakrishnan, Deepak; Schmitter, Petra; Meshgi, Ali

2013-12-15

Climate change and rapid urbanization requires decision-makers to develop a long-term forward assessment on sustainable urban water management projects. This is further complicated by the difficulties of assessing sustainable designs and various design scenarios from an economic standpoint. A conventional valuation approach for urban water management projects, like Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis, fails to incorporate uncertainties, such as amount of rainfall, unit cost of water, and other uncertainties associated with future changes in technological domains. Such approach also fails to include the value of flexibility, which enables managers to adapt and reconfigure systems over time as uncertainty unfolds. This work describes an integrated framework to value investments in urban water management systems under uncertainty. It also extends the conventional DCF analysis through explicit considerations of flexibility in systems design and management. The approach incorporates flexibility as intelligent decision-making mechanisms that enable systems to avoid future downside risks and increase opportunities for upside gains over a range of possible futures. A water catchment area in Singapore was chosen to assess the value of a flexible extension of standard drainage canals and a flexible deployment of a novel water catchment technology based on green roofs and porous pavements. Results show that integrating uncertainty and flexibility explicitly into the decision-making process can reduce initial capital expenditure, improve value for investment, and enable decision-makers to learn more about system requirements during the lifetime of the project. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians: design and methods of a qualitative embedded multiple-case study

PubMed Central

Lessard, Chantale; Contandriopoulos, André-Pierre; Beaulieu, Marie-Dominique

2009-01-01

Background A considerable amount of resource allocation decisions take place daily at the point of the clinical encounter; especially in primary care, where 80 percent of health problems are managed. Ignoring economic evaluation evidence in individual clinical decision-making may have a broad impact on the efficiency of health services. To date, almost all studies on the use of economic evaluation in decision-making used a quantitative approach, and few investigated decision-making at the clinical level. An important question is whether economic evaluations affect clinical practice. The project is an intervention research study designed to understand the role of economic evaluation in the decision-making process of family physicians (FPs). The contributions of the project will be from the perspective of Pierre Bourdieu's sociological theory. Methods/design A qualitative research strategy is proposed. We will conduct an embedded multiple-case study design. Ten case studies will be performed. The FPs will be the unit of analysis. The sampling strategies will be directed towards theoretical generalization. The 10 selected cases will be intended to reflect a diversity of FPs. There will be two embedded units of analysis: FPs (micro-level of analysis) and field of family medicine (macro-level of analysis). The division of the determinants of practice/behaviour into two groups, corresponding to the macro-structural level and the micro-individual level, is the basis for Bourdieu's mode of analysis. The sources of data collection for the micro-level analysis will be 10 life history interviews with FPs, documents and observational evidence. The sources of data collection for the macro-level analysis will be documents and 9 open-ended, focused interviews with key informants from medical associations and academic institutions. The analytic induction approach to data analysis will be used. A list of codes will be generated based on both the original framework and new themes introduced by the participants. We will conduct within-case and cross-case analyses of the data. Discussion The question of the role of economic evaluation in FPs' decision-making is of great interest to scientists, health care practitioners, managers and policy-makers, as well as to consultants, industry, and society. It is believed that the proposed research approach will make an original contribution to the development of knowledge, both empirical and theoretical. PMID:19210787

Application of risk analysis in water resourses management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varouchakis, Emmanouil; Palogos, Ioannis

2017-04-01

A common cost-benefit analysis approach, which is novel in the risk analysis of hydrologic/hydraulic applications, and a Bayesian decision analysis are applied to aid the decision making on whether or not to construct a water reservoir for irrigation purposes. The alternative option examined is a scaled parabolic fine variation in terms of over-pumping violations in contrast to common practices that usually consider short-term fines. Such an application, and in such detail, represents new feedback. The results indicate that the probability uncertainty is the driving issue that determines the optimal decision with each methodology, and depending on the unknown probability handling, each methodology may lead to a different optimal decision. Thus, the proposed tool can help decision makers (stakeholders) to examine and compare different scenarios using two different approaches before making a decision considering the cost of a hydrologic/hydraulic project and the varied economic charges that water table limit violations can cause inside an audit interval. In contrast to practices that assess the effect of each proposed action separately considering only current knowledge of the examined issue, this tool aids decision making by considering prior information and the sampling distribution of future successful audits. This tool is developed in a web service for the easier stakeholders' access.

Learning to Argue with Intermediate Macro Theory: A Semester-Long Team Writing Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strasser, Georg; Wolfe, Marketa Halova

2014-01-01

The authors describe their experience with integrating a semester-long economic analysis project into an intermediate macroeconomic theory course. Students work in teams of "economic advisors" to write a series of nested reports that analyze the current state of the economy, and propose and evaluate policies for a decision-maker. The…

Decision-problem state analysis methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dieterly, D. L.

1980-01-01

A methodology for analyzing a decision-problem state is presented. The methodology is based on the analysis of an incident in terms of the set of decision-problem conditions encountered. By decomposing the events that preceded an unwanted outcome, such as an accident, into the set of decision-problem conditions that were resolved, a more comprehensive understanding is possible. All human-error accidents are not caused by faulty decision-problem resolutions, but it appears to be one of the major areas of accidents cited in the literature. A three-phase methodology is presented which accommodates a wide spectrum of events. It allows for a systems content analysis of the available data to establish: (1) the resolutions made, (2) alternatives not considered, (3) resolutions missed, and (4) possible conditions not considered. The product is a map of the decision-problem conditions that were encountered as well as a projected, assumed set of conditions that should have been considered. The application of this methodology introduces a systematic approach to decomposing the events that transpired prior to the accident. The initial emphasis is on decision and problem resolution. The technique allows for a standardized method of accident into a scenario which may used for review or the development of a training simulation.

Operationalising uncertainty in data and models for integrated water resources management.

PubMed

Blind, M W; Refsgaard, J C

2007-01-01

Key sources of uncertainty of importance for water resources management are (1) uncertainty in data; (2) uncertainty related to hydrological models (parameter values, model technique, model structure); and (3) uncertainty related to the context and the framing of the decision-making process. The European funded project 'Harmonised techniques and representative river basin data for assessment and use of uncertainty information in integrated water management (HarmoniRiB)' has resulted in a range of tools and methods to assess such uncertainties, focusing on items (1) and (2). The project also engaged in a number of discussions surrounding uncertainty and risk assessment in support of decision-making in water management. Based on the project's results and experiences, and on the subsequent discussions a number of conclusions can be drawn on the future needs for successful adoption of uncertainty analysis in decision support. These conclusions range from additional scientific research on specific uncertainties, dedicated guidelines for operational use to capacity building at all levels. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate on these conclusions and anchoring them in the broad objective of making uncertainty and risk assessment an essential and natural part in future decision-making processes.

A novel evaluation method for building construction project based on integrated information entropy with reliability theory.

PubMed

Bai, Xiao-ping; Zhang, Xi-wei

2013-01-01

Selecting construction schemes of the building engineering project is a complex multiobjective optimization decision process, in which many indexes need to be selected to find the optimum scheme. Aiming at this problem, this paper selects cost, progress, quality, and safety as the four first-order evaluation indexes, uses the quantitative method for the cost index, uses integrated qualitative and quantitative methodologies for progress, quality, and safety indexes, and integrates engineering economics, reliability theories, and information entropy theory to present a new evaluation method for building construction project. Combined with a practical case, this paper also presents detailed computing processes and steps, including selecting all order indexes, establishing the index matrix, computing score values of all order indexes, computing the synthesis score, sorting all selected schemes, and making analysis and decision. Presented method can offer valuable references for risk computing of building construction projects.

A Robust Decision-Making Technique for Water Management under Decadal Scale Climate Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callihan, L.; Zagona, E. A.; Rajagopalan, B.

2013-12-01

Robust decision making, a flexible and dynamic approach to managing water resources in light of deep uncertainties associated with climate variability at inter-annual to decadal time scales, is an analytical framework that detects when a system is in or approaching a vulnerable state. It provides decision makers the opportunity to implement strategies that both address the vulnerabilities and perform well over a wide range of plausible future scenarios. A strategy that performs acceptably over a wide range of possible future states is not likely to be optimal with respect to the actual future state. The degree of success--the ability to avoid vulnerable states and operate efficiently--thus depends on the skill in projecting future states and the ability to select the most efficient strategies to address vulnerabilities. This research develops a robust decision making framework that incorporates new methods of decadal scale projections with selection of efficient strategies. Previous approaches to water resources planning under inter-annual climate variability combining skillful seasonal flow forecasts with climatology for subsequent years are not skillful for medium term (i.e. decadal scale) projections as decision makers are not able to plan adequately to avoid vulnerabilities. We address this need by integrating skillful decadal scale streamflow projections into the robust decision making framework and making the probability distribution of this projection available to the decision making logic. The range of possible future hydrologic scenarios can be defined using a variety of nonparametric methods. Once defined, an ensemble projection of decadal flow scenarios are generated from a wavelet-based spectral K-nearest-neighbor resampling approach using historical and paleo-reconstructed data. This method has been shown to generate skillful medium term projections with a rich variety of natural variability. The current state of the system in combination with the probability distribution of the projected flow ensembles enables the selection of appropriate decision options. This process is repeated for each year of the planning horizon--resulting in system outcomes that can be evaluated on their performance and resiliency. The research utilizes the RiverSMART suite of software modeling and analysis tools developed under the Bureau of Reclamation's WaterSMART initiative and built around the RiverWare modeling environment. A case study is developed for the Gunnison and Upper Colorado River Basins. The ability to mitigate vulnerability using the framework is gauged by system performance indicators that measure the ability of the system to meet various water demands (i.e. agriculture, environmental flows, hydropower etc.). Options and strategies for addressing vulnerabilities include measures such as conservation, reallocation and adjustments to operational policy. In addition to being able to mitigate vulnerabilities, options and strategies are evaluated based on benefits, costs and reliability. Flow ensembles are also simulated to incorporate mean and variance from climate change projections for the planning horizon and the above robust decision-making framework is applied to evaluate its performance under changing climate.

Science Operations Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Squibb, Gael F.

1984-10-01

The operation teams for the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) included scientists from the IRAS International Science Team. The scientific decisions on an hour-to-hour basis, as well as the long-term strategic decisions, were made by science team members. The IRAS scientists were involved in the analysis of the instrument performance, the analysis of the quality of the data, the decision to reacquire data that was contaminated by radiation effects, the strategy for acquiring the survey data, and the process for using the telescope for additional observations, as well as the processing decisions required to ensure the publication of the final scientific products by end of flight operations plus one year. Early in the project, two science team members were selected to be responsible for the scientific operational decisions. One, located at the operations control center in England, was responsible for the scientific aspects of the satellite operations; the other, located at the scientific processing center in Pasadena, was responsible for the scientific aspects of the processing. These science team members were then responsible for approving the design and test of the tools to support their responsibilities and then, after launch, for using these tools in making their decisions. The ability of the project to generate the final science data products one year after the end of flight operations is due in a large measure to the active participation of the science team members in the operations. This paper presents a summary of the operational experiences gained from this scientific involvement.

Synthesis of research on work zone delays and simplified application of QuickZone analysis tool.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-03-01

The objectives of this project were to synthesize the latest information on work zone safety and management and identify case studies in which FHWAs decision support tool QuickZone or other appropriate analysis tools could be applied. The results ...

Grizzly Substation Fiber Optics : Environmental Assessment.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

United States. Bonneville Power Administration.

1998-02-01

This notice announces BPA`s decision to construct, operate, and maintain the Grizzly Substation Fiber Optic Project (Project). This Project is part of a continuing effort by BPA to complete a regionwide upgrade of its existing telecommunications system. The US Forest Service and BPA jointly prepared the Grizzly Substation Fiber Optic Project Environmental Assessment (EA) (DOE/EA-1241) evaluating the potential environmental impacts of the Proposed Action, the Underground Installation Alternative, and the No Action Alternative. Based on the analysis in the EA, the US Forest Service and BPA have determined that the Proposed Action is not a major Federal action significantly affectingmore » the quality of the human environment, within the meaning of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) of 1969. Therefore, the preparation of an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) is not required and BPA is issuing this FONSI. The US Forest Service has separately issued a FONSI and Decision Notice authorizing BPA to construct, operate, and maintain the Project within the Crooked River National Grassland (Grassland).« less

Estimating the impact of enterprise resource planning project management decisions on post-implementation maintenance costs: a case study using simulation modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fryling, Meg

2010-11-01

Organisations often make implementation decisions with little consideration for the maintenance phase of an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system, resulting in significant recurring maintenance costs. Poor cost estimations are likely related to the lack of an appropriate framework for enterprise-wide pre-packaged software maintenance, which requires an ongoing relationship with the software vendor (Markus, M.L., Tanis, C., and Fenema, P.C., 2000. Multisite ERP implementation. CACM, 43 (4), 42-46). The end result is that critical project decisions are made with little empirical data, resulting in substantial long-term cost impacts. The product of this research is a formal dynamic simulation model that enables theory testing, scenario exploration and policy analysis. The simulation model ERPMAINT1 was developed by combining and extending existing frameworks in several research domains, and by incorporating quantitative and qualitative case study data. The ERPMAINT1 model evaluates tradeoffs between different ERP project management decisions and their impact on post-implementation total cost of ownership (TCO). Through model simulations a variety of dynamic insights were revealed that could assist ERP project managers. Major findings from the simulation show that upfront investments in mentoring and system exposure translate to long-term cost savings. The findings also indicate that in addition to customisations, add-ons have a significant impact on TCO.

Benefit-Cost Analysis as a Teaching Tool.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dowd, Richard F.

1980-01-01

Demonstrates how benefit-cost and present-value analyses can be used to assess the potential social benefits of government projects and to illustrate how interest rates affect decision-making in government and business. (AYC)

SLUDGE TREATMENT PROJECT KOP CONCEPTUAL DESIGN CONTROL DECISION REPORT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CARRO CA

2010-03-09

This control decision addresses the Knock-Out Pot (KOP) Disposition KOP Processing System (KPS) conceptual design. The KPS functions to (1) retrieve KOP material from canisters, (2) remove particles less than 600 {micro}m in size and low density materials from the KOP material, (3) load the KOP material into Multi-Canister Overpack (MCO) baskets, and (4) stage the MCO baskets for subsequent loading into MCOs. Hazard and accident analyses of the KPS conceptual design have been performed to incorporate safety into the design process. The hazard analysis is documented in PRC-STP-00098, Knock-Out Pot Disposition Project Conceptual Design Hazard Analysis. The accident analysismore » is documented in PRC-STP-CN-N-00167, Knock-Out Pot Disposition Sub-Project Canister Over Lift Accident Analysis. Based on the results of these analyses, and analyses performed in support of MCO transportation and MCO processing and storage activities at the Cold Vacuum Drying Facility (CVDF) and Canister Storage Building (CSB), control decision meetings were held to determine the controls required to protect onsite and offsite receptors and facility workers. At the conceptual design stage, these controls are primarily defined by their safety functions. Safety significant structures, systems, and components (SSCs) that could provide the identified safety functions have been selected for the conceptual design. It is anticipated that some safety SSCs identified herein will be reclassified based on hazard and accident analyses performed in support of preliminary and detailed design.« less

Difficult decisions in times of constraint: Criteria based Resource Allocation in the Vancouver Coastal Health Authority

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Objectives The aim of the project was to develop a plan to address a forecasted deficit of approximately $4.65 million for fiscal year 2010/11 in the Vancouver Communities division of the Vancouver Coastal Health Authority. For disinvestment opportunities identified beyond the forecasted deficit, a commitment was made to consider options for resource re-allocation within the Vancouver Communities division. Methods A standard approach to program budgeting and marginal analysis (PBMA) was taken with a priority setting working committee and a broader advisory panel. An experienced, non-vested internal project manager worked closely with the two-member external research team throughout the process. Face to face evaluation interviews were held with 10 decision makers immediately following the process. Results The recommendations of the working committee included the implementation of 44 disinvestment initiatives with an annualized value of CAD $4.9 million, as well as consideration of possible investments if the realized savings match expectations. Overall, decision makers viewed the process favorably and the primary aim of addressing the deficit gap was met. Discussion A key challenge was the tight timeline which likely lead to less evidence informed decision making then one would hope for. Despite this, decision makers felt that better decisions were made then had the process not been in place. In the end, this project adds value in finding that PBMA can be used to cover a deficit and minimize opportunity cost through systematic application of criteria whilst ensuring process fairness through focusing on communication, transparency and decision maker engagement. PMID:21756357

Decision Support System Requirements Definition for Human Extravehicular Activity Based on Cognitive Work Analysis

PubMed Central

Miller, Matthew James; McGuire, Kerry M.; Feigh, Karen M.

2016-01-01

The design and adoption of decision support systems within complex work domains is a challenge for cognitive systems engineering (CSE) practitioners, particularly at the onset of project development. This article presents an example of applying CSE techniques to derive design requirements compatible with traditional systems engineering to guide decision support system development. Specifically, it demonstrates the requirements derivation process based on cognitive work analysis for a subset of human spaceflight operations known as extravehicular activity. The results are presented in two phases. First, a work domain analysis revealed a comprehensive set of work functions and constraints that exist in the extravehicular activity work domain. Second, a control task analysis was performed on a subset of the work functions identified by the work domain analysis to articulate the translation of subject matter states of knowledge to high-level decision support system requirements. This work emphasizes an incremental requirements specification process as a critical component of CSE analyses to better situate CSE perspectives within the early phases of traditional systems engineering design. PMID:28491008

Decision Support System Requirements Definition for Human Extravehicular Activity Based on Cognitive Work Analysis.

PubMed

Miller, Matthew James; McGuire, Kerry M; Feigh, Karen M

2017-06-01

The design and adoption of decision support systems within complex work domains is a challenge for cognitive systems engineering (CSE) practitioners, particularly at the onset of project development. This article presents an example of applying CSE techniques to derive design requirements compatible with traditional systems engineering to guide decision support system development. Specifically, it demonstrates the requirements derivation process based on cognitive work analysis for a subset of human spaceflight operations known as extravehicular activity . The results are presented in two phases. First, a work domain analysis revealed a comprehensive set of work functions and constraints that exist in the extravehicular activity work domain. Second, a control task analysis was performed on a subset of the work functions identified by the work domain analysis to articulate the translation of subject matter states of knowledge to high-level decision support system requirements. This work emphasizes an incremental requirements specification process as a critical component of CSE analyses to better situate CSE perspectives within the early phases of traditional systems engineering design.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shahidehpour, Mohammad

Integrating 20% or more wind energy into the system and transmitting large sums of wind energy over long distances will require a decision making capability that can handle very large scale power systems with tens of thousands of buses and lines. There is a need to explore innovative analytical and implementation solutions for continuing reliable operations with the most economical integration of additional wind energy in power systems. A number of wind integration solution paths involve the adoption of new operating policies, dynamic scheduling of wind power across interties, pooling integration services, and adopting new transmission scheduling practices. Such practicesmore » can be examined by the decision tool developed by this project. This project developed a very efficient decision tool called Wind INtegration Simulator (WINS) and applied WINS to facilitate wind energy integration studies. WINS focused on augmenting the existing power utility capabilities to support collaborative planning, analysis, and wind integration project implementations. WINS also had the capability of simulating energy storage facilities so that feasibility studies of integrated wind energy system applications can be performed for systems with high wind energy penetrations. The development of WINS represents a major expansion of a very efficient decision tool called POwer Market Simulator (POMS), which was developed by IIT and has been used extensively for power system studies for decades. Specifically, WINS provides the following superiorities; (1) An integrated framework is included in WINS for the comprehensive modeling of DC transmission configurations, including mono-pole, bi-pole, tri-pole, back-to-back, and multi-terminal connection, as well as AC/DC converter models including current source converters (CSC) and voltage source converters (VSC); (2) An existing shortcoming of traditional decision tools for wind integration is the limited availability of user interface, i.e., decision results are often text-based demonstrations. WINS includes a powerful visualization tool and user interface capability for transmission analyses, planning, and assessment, which will be of great interest to power market participants, power system planners and operators, and state and federal regulatory entities; and (3) WINS can handle extended transmission models for wind integration studies. WINS models include limitations on transmission flow as well as bus voltage for analyzing power system states. The existing decision tools often consider transmission flow constraints (dc power flow) alone which could result in the over-utilization of existing resources when analyzing wind integration. WINS can be used to assist power market participants including transmission companies, independent system operators, power system operators in vertically integrated utilities, wind energy developers, and regulatory agencies to analyze economics, security, and reliability of various options for wind integration including transmission upgrades and the planning of new transmission facilities. WINS can also be used by industry for the offline training of reliability and operation personnel when analyzing wind integration uncertainties, identifying critical spots in power system operation, analyzing power system vulnerabilities, and providing credible decisions for examining operation and planning options for wind integration. Researches in this project on wind integration included (1) Development of WINS; (2) Transmission Congestion Analysis in the Eastern Interconnection; (3) Analysis of 2030 Large-Scale Wind Energy Integration in the Eastern Interconnection; (4) Large-scale Analysis of 2018 Wind Energy Integration in the Eastern U.S. Interconnection. The research resulted in 33 papers, 9 presentations, 9 PhD degrees, 4 MS degrees, and 7 awards. The education activities in this project on wind energy included (1) Wind Energy Training Facility Development; (2) Wind Energy Course Development.« less

Providing Decision-Relevant Information for a State Climate Change Action Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wake, C.; Frades, M.; Hurtt, G. C.; Magnusson, M.; Gittell, R.; Skoglund, C.; Morin, J.

2008-12-01

Carbon Solutions New England (CSNE), a public-private partnership formed to promote collective action to achieve a low carbon society, has been working with the Governor appointed New Hampshire Climate Change Policy Task Force (NHCCTF) to support the development of a state Climate Change Action Plan. CSNE's role has been to quantify the potential carbon emissions reduction, implementation costs, and cost savings at three distinct time periods (2012, 2025, 2050) for a range of strategies identified by the Task Force. These strategies were developed for several sectors (transportation and land use, electricity generation and use, building energy use, and agriculture, forestry, and waste).New Hampshire's existing and projected economic and population growth are well above the regional average, creating additional challenges for the state to meet regional emission reduction targets. However, by pursuing an ambitious suite of renewable energy and energy efficiency strategies, New Hampshire may be able to continue growing while reducing emissions at a rate close to 3% per year up to 2025. This suite includes efficiency improvements in new and existing buildings, a renewable portfolio standard for electricity generation, avoiding forested land conversion, fuel economy gains in new vehicles, and a reduction in vehicle miles traveled. Most (over 80%) of these emission reduction strategies are projected to provide net economic savings in 2025.A collaborative and iterative process was developed among the key partners in the project. The foundation for the project's success included: a diverse analysis team with leadership that was committed to the project, an open source analysis approach, weekly meetings and frequent communication among the partners, interim reporting of analysis, and an established and trusting relationship among the partners, in part due to collaboration on previous projects.To develop decision-relevant information for the Task Force, CSNE addressed several challenges, including: allocating the emission reduction and economic impacts of local- to state-scale mitigation strategies that are in reality integrated on regional and/or national scales; incorporating changes to the details of the strategies over time; identifying and quantifying key variables; choosing appropriate levels of detail for over 100 strategies within the limited analysis timeframe; integrating individual strategies into a coherent whole; and structuring data presentation to maximize transparency of analysis without confusing or overwhelming decision makers.

Application of Bayesian and cost benefit risk analysis in water resources management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varouchakis, E. A.; Palogos, I.; Karatzas, G. P.

2016-03-01

Decision making is a significant tool in water resources management applications. This technical note approaches a decision dilemma that has not yet been considered for the water resources management of a watershed. A common cost-benefit analysis approach, which is novel in the risk analysis of hydrologic/hydraulic applications, and a Bayesian decision analysis are applied to aid the decision making on whether or not to construct a water reservoir for irrigation purposes. The alternative option examined is a scaled parabolic fine variation in terms of over-pumping violations in contrast to common practices that usually consider short-term fines. The methodological steps are analytically presented associated with originally developed code. Such an application, and in such detail, represents new feedback. The results indicate that the probability uncertainty is the driving issue that determines the optimal decision with each methodology, and depending on the unknown probability handling, each methodology may lead to a different optimal decision. Thus, the proposed tool can help decision makers to examine and compare different scenarios using two different approaches before making a decision considering the cost of a hydrologic/hydraulic project and the varied economic charges that water table limit violations can cause inside an audit interval. In contrast to practices that assess the effect of each proposed action separately considering only current knowledge of the examined issue, this tool aids decision making by considering prior information and the sampling distribution of future successful audits.

Modeling new coal projects: supercritical or subcritical?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carrino, A.J.; Jones, R.B.

Decisions made on new build coal-fired plants are driven by several factors - emissions, fuel logistics and electric transmission access all provide constraints. The crucial economic decision whether to build supercritical or subcritical units often depends on assumptions concerning the reliability/availability of each technology, the cost of on-fuel operations including maintenance, the generation efficiencies and the potential for emissions credits at some future value. Modeling the influence of these key factors requires analysis and documentation to assure the assets actually meet the projected financial performance. This article addresses some of the issue related to the trade-offs that have the potentialmore » to be driven by the supercritical/subcritical decision. Solomon Associates has been collecting cost, generation and reliability data on coal-fired power generation assets for approximately 10 years using a strict methodology and taxonomy to categorize and compare actual plant operations data. This database provides validated information not only on performance, but also on alternative performance scenarios, which can provide useful insights in the pro forma financial analysis and models of new plants. 1 ref., 1 fig., 3 tabs.« less

Blowing in the wind: evaluating wind energy projects on the national forests

Treesearch

Kerry Schlichting; Evan Mercer

2011-01-01

The 650 million ac of federal lands are facing increased scrutiny for wind energy development. As a result, the US Forest Service has been directed to develop policies and procedures for siting wind energy projects. We incorporate geospatial site suitability analysis with applicable policy and management principles to illustrate the use of a Spatial Decision Support...

Guidelines for appropriate care: the importance of empirical normative analysis.

PubMed

Berg, M; Meulen, R T; van den Burg, M

2001-01-01

The Royal Dutch Medical Association recently completed a research project aimed at investigating how guidelines for 'appropriate medical care' should be construed. The project took as a starting point that explicit attention should be given to ethical and political considerations in addition to data about costs and effectiveness. In the project, two research groups set out to design guidelines and cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) for two circumscribed medical areas (angina pectoris and major depression). Our third group was responsible for the normative analysis. We undertook an explorative, qualitative pilot study of the normative considerations that played a role in constructing the guidelines and CEAs, and simultaneously interviewed specialists about the normative considerations that guided their diagnostic and treatment decisions. Explicating normative considerations, we argue, is important democratically: the issues at stake should not be left to decision analysts and guideline developers to decide. Moreover, it is a necessary condition for a successful implementation of such tools: those who draw upon these tools will only accept them when they can recognize themselves in the considerations implied. Empirical normative analysis, we argue, is a crucial tool in developing guidelines for appropriate medical care.

Interventionist and participatory approaches to flood risk mitigation decisions: two case studies in the Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bianchizza, C.; Del Bianco, D.; Pellizzoni, L.; Scolobig, A.

2012-04-01

Flood risk mitigation decisions pose key challenges not only from a technical but also from a social, economic and political viewpoint. There is an increasing demand for improving the quality of these processes by including different stakeholders - and especially by involving the local residents in the decision making process - and by guaranteeing the actual improvement of local social capacities during and after the decision making. In this paper we analyse two case studies of flood risk mitigation decisions, Malborghetto-Valbruna and Vipiteno-Sterzing, in the Italian Alps. In both of them, mitigation works have been completed or planned, yet following completely different approaches especially in terms of responses of residents and involvement of local authorities. In Malborghetto-Valbruna an 'interventionist' approach (i.e. leaning towards a top down/technocratic decision process) was used to make decisions after the flood event that affected the municipality in the year 2003. In Vipiteno-Sterzing, a 'participatory' approach (i.e. leaning towards a bottom-up/inclusive decision process) was applied: decisions about risk mitigation measures were made by submitting different projects to the local citizens and by involving them in the decision making process. The analysis of the two case studies presented in the paper is grounded on the results of two research projects. Structured and in-depth interviews, as well as questionnaire surveys were used to explore residents' and local authorities' orientations toward flood risk mitigation. Also a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) involving key stakeholders was used to better understand the characteristics of the communities and their perception of flood risk mitigation issues. The results highlight some key differences between interventionist and participatory approaches, together with some implications of their adoption in the local context. Strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches, as well as key challenges for the future are also discussed.

Aeronautics systems technology studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauchspies, J. S.

1983-01-01

Data collection and analysis in the areas of air transportation, aircraft manufacturing and sales, airline operations, market projections, internal trade, and energy consumption; legislation and regulations, technology needs; surveys; decision-making; cost analyses; and technology transfer are discussed.

Class Evolution Tree: A Graphical Tool to Support Decisions on the Number of Classes in Exploratory Categorical Latent Variable Modeling for Rehabilitation Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kriston, Levente; Melchior, Hanne; Hergert, Anika; Bergelt, Corinna; Watzke, Birgit; Schulz, Holger; von Wolff, Alessa

2011-01-01

The aim of our study was to develop a graphical tool that can be used in addition to standard statistical criteria to support decisions on the number of classes in explorative categorical latent variable modeling for rehabilitation research. Data from two rehabilitation research projects were used. In the first study, a latent profile analysis was…

Knowledge to Action - Understanding Natural Hazards-Induced Power Outage Scenarios for Actionable Disaster Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kar, B.; Robinson, C.; Koch, D. B.; Omitaomu, O.

2017-12-01

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 identified the following four priorities to prevent and reduce disaster risks: i) understanding disaster risk; ii) strengthening governance to manage disaster risk; iii) investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience and; iv) enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response, and to "Build Back Better" in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. While forecasting and decision making tools are in place to predict and understand future impacts of natural hazards, the knowledge to action approach that currently exists fails to provide updated information needed by decision makers to undertake response and recovery efforts following a hazard event. For instance, during a tropical storm event advisories are released every two to three hours, but manual analysis of geospatial data to determine potential impacts of the event tends to be time-consuming and a post-event process. Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have developed a Spatial Decision Support System that enables real-time analysis of storm impact based on updated advisory. A prototype of the tool that focuses on determining projected power outage areas and projected duration of outages demonstrates the feasibility of integrating science with decision making for emergency management personnel to act in real time to protect communities and reduce risk.

Role of pharmacoeconomic analysis in R&D decision making: when, where, how?

PubMed

Miller, Paul

2005-01-01

Pharmacoeconomics is vitally important to drug manufacturers in terms of communicating to external decision-makers (payers, prescribers, patients) the value of their products, achieving regulatory and reimbursement approval and contributing to commercial success. Since development of new drugs is long, costly and risky, and decisions must be made how to allocate considerable research and development (R&D) resources, pharmacoeconomics also has an essential role informing internal decision-making (within a company) during drug development. The use of pharmacoeconomics in early development phases is likely to enhance the efficiency of R&D resource use and also provide a solid foundation for communicating product value to external decision-makers further downstream, increasing the likelihood of regulatory (reimbursement) approval and commercial success. This paper puts the case for use of pharmacoeconomic analyses earlier in the development process and outlines five techniques (clinical trial simulation [CTS], option pricing [OP], investment appraisal [IA], threshold analysis [TA] and value of information [VOI] analysis) that can provide useful input into the design of clinical development programmes, portfolio management and optimal pricing strategy. CTS can estimate efficacy and tolerability profiles before clinical data are available. OP can show the value of different clinical programme designs, sequencing of studies and stop decisions. IA can compare expected net present value (NPV) of different product profiles or study designs. TA can be used to understand development drug profile requirements given partial data. VOI can assist risk management by quantifying uncertainty and assessing the economic viability of gathering further information on the development drug. No amount of pharmacoeconomic data can make a bad drug good; what it can do is enhance the drug developers understanding of the characteristics of that drug. Decision-making, in light of this information, is likely to be better than that without it, whether it leads to faster termination of uneconomic projects or the allocation of more appropriate resources to attractive projects.

Projecting Future Land Use Changes in West Africa Driven by Climate and Socioeconomic Factors: Uncertainties and Implications for Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

2015-12-01

Land use changes constitute an important regional climate change forcing in West Africa, a region of strong land-atmosphere coupling. At the same time, climate change can be an important driver for land use, although its importance relative to the impact of socio-economic factors may vary significant from region to region. This study compares the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa and examines various sources of uncertainty using a land use projection model (LandPro) that accounts for the impact of socioeconomic drivers on the demand side and the impact of climate-induced crop yield changes on the supply side. Future crop yield changes were simulated by a process-based crop model driven with future climate projections from a regional climate model, and future changes of food demand is projected using a model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade. The impact of human decision-making on land use was explicitly considered through multiple "what-if" scenarios to examine the range of uncertainties in projecting future land use. Without agricultural intensification, the climate-induced decrease of crop yield together with increase of food demand are found to cause a significant increase in agricultural land use at the expense of forest and grassland by the mid-century, and the resulting land use land cover changes are found to feed back to the regional climate in a way that exacerbates the negative impact of climate on crop yield. Analysis of results from multiple decision-making scenarios suggests that human adaptation characterized by science-informed decision making to minimize land use could be very effective in many parts of the region.

Development of Risk Uncertainty Factors from Historical NASA Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Amer, Tahani R.

2011-01-01

NASA is a good investment of federal funds and strives to provide the best value to the nation. NASA has consistently budgeted to unrealistic cost estimates, which are evident in the cost growth in many of its programs. In this investigation, NASA has been using available uncertainty factors from the Aerospace Corporation, Air Force, and Booz Allen Hamilton to develop projects risk posture. NASA has no insight into the developmental of these factors and, as demonstrated here, this can lead to unrealistic risks in many NASA Programs and projects (P/p). The primary contribution of this project is the development of NASA missions uncertainty factors, from actual historical NASA projects, to aid cost-estimating as well as for independent reviews which provide NASA senior management with information and analysis to determine the appropriate decision regarding P/p. In general terms, this research project advances programmatic analysis for NASA projects.

An integrated strategy of knowledge application for optimal e-health implementation: A multi-method study protocol

PubMed Central

Gagnon, Marie-Pierre; Légaré, France; Fortin, Jean-Paul; Lamothe, Lise; Labrecque, Michel; Duplantie, Julie

2008-01-01

Background E-health is increasingly valued for supporting: 1) access to quality health care services for all citizens; 2) information flow and exchange; 3) integrated health care services and 4) interprofessional collaboration. Nevertheless, several questions remain on the factors allowing an optimal integration of e-health in health care policies, organisations and practices. An evidence-based integrated strategy would maximise the efficacy and efficiency of e-health implementation. However, decisions regarding e-health applications are usually not evidence-based, which can lead to a sub-optimal use of these technologies. This study aims at understanding factors influencing the application of scientific knowledge for an optimal implementation of e-health in the health care system. Methods A three-year multi-method study is being conducted in the Province of Quebec (Canada). Decision-making at each decisional level (political, organisational and clinical) are analysed based on specific approaches. At the political level, critical incidents analysis is being used. This method will identify how decisions regarding the implementation of e-health could be influenced or not by scientific knowledge. Then, interviews with key-decision-makers will look at how knowledge was actually used to support their decisions, and what factors influenced its use. At the organisational level, e-health projects are being analysed as case studies in order to explore the use of scientific knowledge to support decision-making during the implementation of the technology. Interviews with promoters, managers and clinicians will be carried out in order to identify factors influencing the production and application of scientific knowledge. At the clinical level, questionnaires are being distributed to clinicians involved in e-health projects in order to analyse factors influencing knowledge application in their decision-making. Finally, a triangulation of the results will be done using mixed methodologies to allow a transversal analysis of the results at each of the decisional levels. Results This study will identify factors influencing the use of scientific evidence and other types of knowledge by decision-makers involved in planning, financing, implementing and evaluating e-health projects. Conclusion These results will be highly relevant to inform decision-makers who wish to optimise the implementation of e-health in the Quebec health care system. This study is extremely relevant given the context of major transformations in the health care system where e-health becomes a must. PMID:18435853

Analysis of methods of processing of expert information by optimization of administrative decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Churakov, D. Y.; Tsarkova, E. G.; Marchenko, N. D.; Grechishnikov, E. V.

2018-03-01

In the real operation the measure definition methodology in case of expert estimation of quality and reliability of application-oriented software products is offered. In operation methods of aggregation of expert estimates on the example of a collective choice of an instrumental control projects in case of software development of a special purpose for needs of institutions are described. Results of operation of dialogue decision making support system are given an algorithm of the decision of the task of a choice on the basis of a method of the analysis of hierarchies and also. The developed algorithm can be applied by development of expert systems to the solution of a wide class of the tasks anyway connected to a multicriteria choice.

Visual Analysis as a design and decision-making tool in the development of a quarry

Treesearch

Randall Boyd Fitzgerald

1979-01-01

In order to obtain local and state government approvals, an environmental impact analysis of the mining and reclamation of a proposed hard rock quarry was required. High visibility of the proposed mining area from the adjacent community required a visual impact analysis in the planning and design of the project. The Visual Analysis defined design criteria for the...

Iraqi Population Displacement Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-01

CENTER FOR ARMY ANALYSIS 6001 GOETHALS ROAD FORT BELVOIR, VA 22060-5230 CAA-2015098 IRAQI POPULATION DISPLACEMENT ANALYSIS NOVEMBER 2016...CONTRACT NUMBER Iraqi Population Displacement Analysis PDMC 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER Ms...NOTES 14. ABSTRACT The purpose of this study was to inform CJ34 Civil Military Operations decisions on placement of internally displaced person (IDP

Project SHARE Sustainable Hydropower in Alpine Rivers Ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mammoliti Mochet, Andrea

2010-05-01

SHARE - Sustainable Hydropower in Alpine Rivers Ecosystems is a running project early approved and co funded by the European regional development fund in the context of the European Territorial Cooperation Alpine Space programme 2007 - 2013: the project is formally ongoing from August 2009 and it will end July 2012. Hydropower is the most important renewable resource for electricity production in alpine areas: it has advantages for the global CO2 balance but creates serious environmental impacts. RES-e Directives require renewable electricity enhance but, at the same time, the Water Framework Directive obliges member States to reach or maintain a water bodies "good" ecological status, intrinsically limiting the hydropower exploitation. Administrators daily face an increasing demand of water abstraction but lack reliable tools to rigorously evaluate their effects on mountain rivers and the social and economical outputs on longer time scale. The project intends to develop, test and promote a decision support system to merge on an unprejudiced base, river ecosystems and hydropower requirements. This approach will be led using existing scientific tools, adjustable to transnational, national and local normative and carried on by permanent panel of administrators and stakeholders. Scientific knowledge related to HP & river management will be "translated" by the communication tools and spent as a concrete added value to build a decision support system. In particular, the Multicriteria Analysis (MCA) will be applied to assess different management alternatives where a single-criterion approach (such as cost-benefit analysis) falls short, especially where environmental, technical, economic and social criteria can't be quantified by monetary values. All the existing monitoring databases will be used and harmonized with new information collected during the Pilot case studies. At the same time, all information collected will be available to end users and actors of related projects. The project openly pursues integrated river management aims (environmental and economic): - define, share and test a decision making framework based on validated methodologies in order to allow public decision makers to take transparent decisions about planning and management of HP concessions, taking account resulting effects on river ecosystems and on all different stakeholders - creation of a technical panel including public decision makers, stakeholders and PPs to promote & transfer the SHARE approach to local, national & transnational level to concretely upgrade the actual standard of problem solving attitude; - classify scenarios of water use optimization, taking into account the different actor needs; - establish a set of generally applicable and comparable indicators & monitoring standards based on transferable guidelines and metrics considering the specific disparities among power stations, diversity of technical approaches and different river ecosystems; - designation and mapping of alpine hydro systems more vulnerable typologies; - designation and mapping of the most convenient sites and typologies of "low impact" new plants; - contribute to the concrete local integration implementation of WFD and RES-e directives. The project partnership embodies different alpine countries & hydrosystems, profiles, status, end users, networks and previous experiences. At the same time the project official observers represent the links with outside the project networks, end users & stakeholders.

Identification of crew-systems interactions and decision related trends

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-05-01

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Vehicle System Safety Technology (VSST) project management uses systems analysis to identify key issues and maintain a portfolio of research leading to potential solutions to its three identified t...

Optimization of the choice of unmanned aerial vehicles used to monitor the implementation of selected construction projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skorupka, Dariusz; Duchaczek, Artur; Waniewska, Agnieszka; Kowacka, Magdalena

2017-07-01

Due to their properties unmanned aerial vehicles have huge number of possibilities for application in construction engineering. The nature and extent of construction works performedmakes the decision to purchase the right equipment significant for the possibility for its further use while monitoring the implementation of these works. Technical factors, such as the accuracy and quality of the applied measurement instruments are especially important when monitoring the realization of construction projects. The paper presents the optimization of the choice of unmanned aerial vehicles using the Bellinger method. The decision-making analysis takes into account criteria that are particularly crucial by virtue of the range of monitoring of ongoing construction works.

Nuclear power for the future: Implications of some crisis scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Turner, K.H.

1996-12-31

As energy issues have dropped from public awareness, electricity demand growth has remained low, deregulation has destabilized the utility decision process, and least-cost regulation has pointed utilities to gas-fired plants for those additions that are coming on-line, the nuclear power industry has begun to ask the question: What will cause nuclear energy to again compete as an option in new, domestic generating capacity additions? Since virtually all of today`s corporate and societal decisions are driven by short-term factors, the preceding question can be translated into: What crisis might occur that would project nuclear as the solution to an immediately perceivedmore » problem? Thus, an examination of scenarios that would project nuclear power into the country`s immediate consciousness is in order, along with an analysis of the implications for and challenges to the nuclear industry resulting therefrom. This paper undertakes such an analysis.« less

Office of Legacy Management Decision Tree for Solar Photovoltaic Projects - 13317

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elmer, John; Butherus, Michael; Barr, Deborah L.

2013-07-01

To support consideration of renewable energy power development as a land reuse option, the DOE Office of Legacy Management (LM) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) established a partnership to conduct an assessment of wind and solar renewable energy resources on LM lands. From a solar capacity perspective, the larger sites in the western United States present opportunities for constructing solar photovoltaic (PV) projects. A detailed analysis and preliminary plan was developed for three large sites in New Mexico, assessing the costs, the conceptual layout of a PV system, and the electric utility interconnection process. As a result ofmore » the study, a 1,214-hectare (3,000-acre) site near Grants, New Mexico, was chosen for further study. The state incentives, utility connection process, and transmission line capacity were key factors in assessing the feasibility of the project. LM's Durango, Colorado, Disposal Site was also chosen for consideration because the uranium mill tailings disposal cell is on a hillside facing south, transmission lines cross the property, and the community was very supportive of the project. LM worked with the regulators to demonstrate that the disposal cell's long-term performance would not be impacted by the installation of a PV solar system. A number of LM-unique issues were resolved in making the site available for a private party to lease a portion of the site for a solar PV project. A lease was awarded in September 2012. Using a solar decision tree that was developed and launched by the EPA and NREL, LM has modified and expanded the decision tree structure to address the unique aspects and challenges faced by LM on its multiple sites. The LM solar decision tree covers factors such as land ownership, usable acreage, financial viability of the project, stakeholder involvement, and transmission line capacity. As additional sites are transferred to LM in the future, the decision tree will assist in determining whether a solar PV project is feasible on the new sites. (authors)« less

My Lived Experiences Are More Important Than Your Probabilities: The Role of Individualized Risk Estimates for Decision Making about Participation in the Study of Tamoxifen and Raloxifene (STAR).

PubMed

Holmberg, Christine; Waters, Erika A; Whitehouse, Katie; Daly, Mary; McCaskill-Stevens, Worta

2015-11-01

Decision-making experts emphasize that understanding and using probabilistic information are important for making informed decisions about medical treatments involving complex risk-benefit tradeoffs. Yet empirical research demonstrates that individuals may not use probabilities when making decisions. To explore decision making and the use of probabilities for decision making from the perspective of women who were risk-eligible to enroll in the Study of Tamoxifen and Raloxifene (STAR). We conducted narrative interviews with 20 women who agreed to participate in STAR and 20 women who declined. The project was based on a narrative approach. Analysis included the development of summaries of each narrative, and thematic analysis with developing a coding scheme inductively to code all transcripts to identify emerging themes. Interviewees explained and embedded their STAR decisions within experiences encountered throughout their lives. Such lived experiences included but were not limited to breast cancer family history, a personal history of breast biopsies, and experiences or assumptions about taking tamoxifen or medicines more generally. Women's explanations of their decisions about participating in a breast cancer chemoprevention trial were more complex than decision strategies that rely solely on a quantitative risk-benefit analysis of probabilities derived from populations In addition to precise risk information, clinicians and risk communicators should recognize the importance and legitimacy of lived experience in individual decision making. © The Author(s) 2015.

Financial Analysis: A Review of the Methods and Their Application to Employee Training. Training and Development Research Center Project Number Nine.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mosier, Nancy R.

Financial analysis techniques are tools that help managers make sound financial decisions that contribute to general corporate objectives. A literature review reveals that the most commonly used financial analysis techniques are payback time, average rate of return, present value or present worth, and internal rate of return. Despite the success…

Making Decisions about Treatment

MedlinePlus

... advocacy HIV policy HIV prevention CONTRIBUTORS Project Inform Twitter Feed Project Inform ProjectInform ProjectInform #HIV cure : (Let ... February 17, 2011 Making decisions about treatment Facebook Twitter Google + Email Print January 2011Â Â Â View ...

Decision support tool for used oil regeneration technologies assessment and selection.

PubMed

Khelifi, Olfa; Dalla Giovanna, Fabio; Vranes, Sanja; Lodolo, Andrea; Miertus, Stanislav

2006-09-01

Regeneration is the most efficient way of managing used oil. It saves money by preventing costly cleanups and liabilities that are associated with mismanagement of used oil, it helps to protect the environment and it produces a technically renewable resource by enabling an indefinite recycling potential. There are a variety of processes and licensors currently offering ways to deal with used oils. Selecting a regeneration technology for used oil involves "cross-matching" key criteria. Therefore, the first prototype of spent oil regeneration (SPORE), a decision support tool, has been developed to help decision-makers to assess the available technologies and select the preferred used oil regeneration options. The analysis is based on technical, economical and environmental criteria. These criteria are ranked to determine their relative importance for a particular used oil regeneration project. The multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is the core of the SPORE using the PROMETHEE II algorithm.

Station Commander Job Analysis and Preliminary Test Validation Results

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-10-01

Patrick W . Connell Personnel Decisions Research Institutes, Inc. Leonard A. White U.S. Army Research Institute Valentina B. Bruk-Lee, Lisa M. Penney, Walter ...of a "hyperdimensional" taxonomy of managerial competence. Human Performance, 13(3), 205-251. Tornow , W . W ., & Pinto, P. R. (1976). The development...5c. PROJECT NUMBER Kristen E. Horgen, U. Christean Kubisiak, Patrick W . A790 Connell (Personnel Decisions Research Institutes, Inc.); 5d. TASK NUMBER

From ecological test site to geographic information system: lessons for the 1980's

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alexander, Robert H.

1981-01-01

Geographic information systems were common elements in two kinds of interdisciplinary regional demonstration projects in the 1970's. Ecological test sits attempted to provide for more efficient remote-sensing data delivery for regional environmental management. Regional environmental systems analysis attempted to formally describe and model the interacting regional social and environmental processes, including the resource-use decision making process. Lessons for the 1980's are drawn from recent evaluations and assessments of these programs, focusing on cost, rates of system development and technology transfer, program coordination, integrative analysis capability, and the involvement of system users and decision makers.

Environmental Assessment and Finding of No Significant Impact: Kalina Geothermal Demonstration Project Steamboat Springs, Nevada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

N /A

1999-02-22

The Department of Energy (DOE) has prepared an Environmental Assessment (EA) to provide the DOE and other public agency decision makers with the environmental documentation required to take informed discretionary action on the proposed Kalina Geothermal Demonstration project. The EA assesses the potential environmental impacts and cumulative impacts, possible ways to minimize effects associated with partial funding of the proposed project, and discusses alternatives to DOE actions. The DOE will use this EA as a basis for their decision to provide financial assistance to Exergy, Inc. (Exergy), the project applicant. Based on the analysis in the EA, DOE has determinedmore » that the proposed action is not a major Federal action significantly affecting the quality of the human or physical environment, within the meaning of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) of 1969. Therefore, the preparation of an environmental impact statement is not required and DOE is issuing this Finding of No Significant Impact (FONSI).« less

Benchmarking of Decision-Support Tools Used for Tiered Sustainable Remediation Appraisal.

PubMed

Smith, Jonathan W N; Kerrison, Gavin

2013-01-01

Sustainable remediation comprises soil and groundwater risk-management actions that are selected, designed, and operated to maximize net environmental, social, and economic benefit (while assuring protection of human health and safety). This paper describes a benchmarking exercise to comparatively assess potential differences in environmental management decision making resulting from application of different sustainability appraisal tools ranging from simple (qualitative) to more quantitative (multi-criteria and fully monetized cost-benefit analysis), as outlined in the SuRF-UK framework. The appraisal tools were used to rank remedial options for risk management of a subsurface petroleum release that occurred at a petrol filling station in central England. The remediation options were benchmarked using a consistent set of soil and groundwater data for each tier of sustainability appraisal. The ranking of remedial options was very similar in all three tiers, and an environmental management decision to select the most sustainable options at tier 1 would have been the same decision at tiers 2 and 3. The exercise showed that, for relatively simple remediation projects, a simple sustainability appraisal led to the same remediation option selection as more complex appraisal, and can be used to reliably inform environmental management decisions on other relatively simple land contamination projects.

A platform for proactive, risk-based slope asset management, phase II.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-03-01

The lidar visualization technique developed by this project enables highway managers to understand changes in slope characteristics : along highways. This change detection and analysis can be the basis of informed decisions for slope inspection and r...

A platform for proactive, risk-based slope asset management, phase II.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-08-01

The lidar visualization technique developed by this project enables highway managers to understand changes : in slope characteristics along highways. This change detection and analysis can be the basis of informed : decisions for slope inspection and...

[Analyzing consumer preference by using the latest semantic model for verbal protocol].

PubMed

Tamari, Yuki; Takemura, Kazuhisa

2012-02-01

This paper examines consumers' preferences for competing brands by using a preference model of verbal protocols. Participants were 150 university students, who reported their opinions and feelings about McDonalds and Mos Burger (competing hamburger restaurants in Japan). Their verbal protocols were analyzed by using the singular value decomposition method, and the latent decision frames were estimated. The verbal protocols having a large value in the decision frames could be interpreted as showing attributes that consumers emphasize. Based on the estimated decision frames, we predicted consumers' preferences using the logistic regression analysis method. The results indicate that the decision frames projected from the verbal protocol data explained consumers' preferences effectively.

Project-focused activity and knowledge tracker: a unified data analysis, collaboration, and workflow tool for medicinal chemistry project teams.

PubMed

Brodney, Marian D; Brosius, Arthur D; Gregory, Tracy; Heck, Steven D; Klug-McLeod, Jacquelyn L; Poss, Christopher S

2009-12-01

Advances in the field of drug discovery have brought an explosion in the quantity of data available to medicinal chemists and other project team members. New strategies and systems are needed to help these scientists to efficiently gather, organize, analyze, annotate, and share data about potential new drug molecules of interest to their project teams. Herein we describe a suite of integrated services and end-user applications that facilitate these activities throughout the medicinal chemistry design cycle. The Automated Data Presentation (ADP) and Virtual Compound Profiler (VCP) processes automate the gathering, organization, and storage of real and virtual molecules, respectively, and associated data. The Project-Focused Activity and Knowledge Tracker (PFAKT) provides a unified data analysis and collaboration environment, enhancing decision-making, improving team communication, and increasing efficiency.

An Estimation of Profitability of Investment Projects in The Oil and Gas Industry Using Real Options Theory / Ocena Opłacalności Projektów Inwestycyjnych W Przemyśle Naftowym Z Wykorzystaniem Teorii Opcji Realnych

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosowski, Piotr; Stopa, Jerzy

2012-11-01

Paper discusses issues relating to the valuation of investment efficiency in the oil and gas industry using a real options theory. The example of investment pricing using real options was depicted and it was confronted with the analysis executed with the use of traditional methods. Indicators commonly used to evaluate profitability of investment projects, based on a discounted cash flow method, have a few significant drawbacks, the most meaningful of which is staticity which means that any changes resulting from a decision process during the time of investment cannot be taken into consideration. In accordance with a methodology that is currently used, investment projects are analysed in a way that all the key decisions are made at the beginning and are irreversible. This approach assumes, that all the cash flows are specified and does not let the fact that during the time of investment there may appear new information, which could change its original form. What is also not analysed is the possibility of readjustment, due to staff managment's decisions, to the current market conditions, by expanding, speeding up/slowing down, abandoning or changing an outline of the undertaking. In result, traditional methods of investment projects valuation may lead to taking wrong decisions, e.g. giving up an owned exploitation licence or untimely liquidation of boreholes, which seem to be unprofitable. Due to all the above-mentioned there appears the necessity of finding some other methods which would let one make real and adequate estimations about investments in a petroleum industry especially when it comes to unconventional resources extraction. One of the methods which has been recently getting more and more approval in a world petroleum economics, is a real options pricing method. A real option is a right (but not an obligation) to make a decision connected with an investment in a specified time or time interval. According to the method a static model of pricing using DCF is no longer used; an investment project is divided into a series of steps and after each one there is a range of possible investment decisions, technical and organizational issues and all the others called `real options'. This lets one take many different varieties of modyfiying a strategy while pricing the project. This also makes it possible to react to the changing inner and outer situation and introducing new information while accomplishing the investment project. Owing to those, the decision process is a continuous operation, what is an actual vision of a real investment project management in the petroleum industry.

78 FR 4435 - Notice of Availability of the Restoration Design Energy Project Record of Decision/Approved...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-22

... Project (RDEP) Record of Decision (ROD)/approved Resource Management Plan (RMP) amendments for BLM... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Bureau of Land Management [LLAZ910000.L13400000.DT0000.LXSS058A0000] Notice of Availability of the Restoration Design Energy Project Record of Decision/Approved Resource...

THE NGA-DOE GRANT TO EXAMINE CRITICAL ISSUES RELATED TO RADIOACTIVE WASTE AND MATERIALS DISPOSITION INVOLVING DOE FACILITIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1998-01-01

Through the National Governors' Association (NGA) project ''Critical Issues Related to Radioactive Waste and Materials Disposition Involving DOE Facilities'' NGA brings together Governors' policy advisors, state regulators, and DOE officials to examine critical issues related to the cleanup and operation of DOE nuclear weapons and research facilities. Topics explored through this project include: Decisions involving disposal of mixed, low-level, and transuranic (TRU) waste and disposition of nuclear materials. Decisions involving DOE budget requests and their effect on environmental cleanup and compliance at DOE facilities. Strategies to treat mixed, low-level, and transuranic (TRU) waste and their effect on individual sites inmore » the complex. Changes to the FFCA site treatment plans as a result of proposals in the EM 2006 cleanup plans and contractor integration analysis. Interstate waste and materials shipments. Reforms to existing RCRA and CERCLA regulations/guidance to address regulatory overlap and risks posed by DOE wastes. The overarching theme of this project is to help the Department improve coordination of its major program decisions with Governors' offices and state regulators and to ensure such decisions reflect input from these key state officials and stakeholders. This report summarizes activities conducted during the quarter from October 1, 1997 through December 31, 1997, under the NGA project. The work accomplished by the NGA project team during the past four months can be categorized as follows: maintained open communication with DOE on a variety of activities and issues within the DOE environmental management complex; and maintained communication with NGA Federal Facilities Compliance Task Force members regarding DOE efforts to formulate a configuration for mixed low-level waste and low-level treatment and disposal, DOE activities in the area of the Hazardous Waste Identification Rule, and DOE's proposed National Dialogue.« less

Joint High-Speed Sea Truck

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-05-01

The objective of the project was to expand on the design and analysis conducted by the “Seabase to Treeline Connector” Innovation Cell that...from the Seabase to the treeline ashore. Several concepts were developed and decisions factors for the selection of the recommended solution were...analyzed and described in the original report. The objective of this project was to define in more detail the “Seabase to Treeline ” Connector platform

Cyborg practices: call-handlers and computerised decision support systems in urgent and emergency care.

PubMed

Pope, Catherine; Halford, Susan; Turnbull, Joanne; Prichard, Jane

2014-06-01

This article draws on data collected during a 2-year project examining the deployment of a computerised decision support system. This computerised decision support system was designed to be used by non-clinical staff for dealing with calls to emergency (999) and urgent care (out-of-hours) services. One of the promises of computerised decisions support technologies is that they can 'hold' vast amounts of sophisticated clinical knowledge and combine it with decision algorithms to enable standardised decision-making by non-clinical (clerical) staff. This article draws on our ethnographic study of this computerised decision support system in use, and we use our analysis to question the 'automated' vision of decision-making in healthcare call-handling. We show that embodied and experiential (human) expertise remains central and highly salient in this work, and we propose that the deployment of the computerised decision support system creates something new, that this conjunction of computer and human creates a cyborg practice.

System design and improvement of an emergency department using Simulation-Based Multi-Objective Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goienetxea Uriarte, A.; Ruiz Zúñiga, E.; Urenda Moris, M.; Ng, A. H. C.

2015-05-01

Discrete Event Simulation (DES) is nowadays widely used to support decision makers in system analysis and improvement. However, the use of simulation for improving stochastic logistic processes is not common among healthcare providers. The process of improving healthcare systems involves the necessity to deal with trade-off optimal solutions that take into consideration a multiple number of variables and objectives. Complementing DES with Multi-Objective Optimization (SMO) creates a superior base for finding these solutions and in consequence, facilitates the decision-making process. This paper presents how SMO has been applied for system improvement analysis in a Swedish Emergency Department (ED). A significant number of input variables, constraints and objectives were considered when defining the optimization problem. As a result of the project, the decision makers were provided with a range of optimal solutions which reduces considerably the length of stay and waiting times for the ED patients. SMO has proved to be an appropriate technique to support healthcare system design and improvement processes. A key factor for the success of this project has been the involvement and engagement of the stakeholders during the whole process.

Ares Project Technology Assessment: Approach and Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hueter, Uwe; Tyson, Richard

2010-01-01

Technology assessments provide a status of the development maturity of specific technologies. Along with benefit analysis, the risks the project assumes can be quantified. Normally due to budget constraints, the competing technologies are prioritized and decisions are made which ones to fund. A detailed technology development plan is produced for the selected technologies to provide a roadmap to reach the desired maturity by the project s critical design review. Technology assessments can be conducted for both technology only tasks or for product development programs. This paper is primarily biased toward the product development programs. The paper discusses the Ares Project s approach to technology assessment. System benefit analysis, risk assessment, technology prioritization, and technology readiness assessment are addressed. A description of the technology readiness level tool being used is provided.

Enrollment Projection within a Decision-Making Framework.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Armstrong, David F.; Nunley, Charlene Wenckowski

1981-01-01

Two methods used to predict enrollment at Montgomery College in Maryland are compared and evaluated, and the administrative context in which they are used is considered. The two methods involve time series analysis (curve fitting) and indicator techniques (yield from components). (MSE)

Cost-benefit analysis of alternative fuels and motive designs.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-04-01

This project was funded by the Federal Railroad Administration to better understand the potential cost and benefits of using alternative fuels for U.S. freight and passenger locomotive operations. The framework for a decision model was developed by T...

Choosing a Site.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Intercom, 1985

1985-01-01

In this simulation, which involves the location of a low-income housing project, secondary students simulate eight roles--citizens representing the interests of seven different neighborhoods and a federal arbiter. Skills developed by the simulation include analysis, decision making, and oral and written communication. (RM)

Simulation analysis of route diversion strategies for freeway incident management : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-02-01

The purpose of this project was to investigate whether simulation models could : be used as decision aids for defining traffic diversion strategies for effective : incident management. A methodology was developed for using such a model to : determine...

Toward Affordable Systems: Portfolio Analysis and Management for Army Science and Technology Programs

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-01-01

PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR (S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Rand...Decision Authority MDAP major defense acquisition program Abbreviations xxvii MIC marginal implementation cost MOMC marginal operating and...the Milestone Decision Authority (MDA).1 1 This section is based on U.S. Army, 2003, pp. 30–33. This 2003 Army document had taken into account the

A History of Sandia’s Water Decision Modeling and Analysis Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Pate, Ronald C.

This document provides a brief narrative, and selected project descriptions, that represent Sandia’s history involving data, modeling, and analysis related to water, energy-water nexus, and energy-water-agriculture nexus within the context of climate change. Sandia National Laboratories has been engaged since the early-1990s with program development involving data, modeling, and analysis projects that address the interdependent issues, risks, and technology-based mitigations associated with increasing demands and stresses being placed on energy, water, and agricultural/food resources, and the related impacts on their security and sustainability in the face of both domestic and global population growth, expanding economic development, and climate change.

Fault identification of rotor-bearing system based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition and self-zero space projection analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Fan; Zhu, Zhencai; Li, Wei; Zhou, Gongbo; Chen, Guoan

2014-07-01

Accurately identifying faults in rotor-bearing systems by analyzing vibration signals, which are nonlinear and nonstationary, is challenging. To address this issue, a new approach based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and self-zero space projection analysis is proposed in this paper. This method seeks to identify faults appearing in a rotor-bearing system using simple algebraic calculations and projection analyses. First, EEMD is applied to decompose the collected vibration signals into a set of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) for features. Second, these extracted features under various mechanical health conditions are used to design a self-zero space matrix according to space projection analysis. Finally, the so-called projection indicators are calculated to identify the rotor-bearing system's faults with simple decision logic. Experiments are implemented to test the reliability and effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results show that this approach can accurately identify faults in rotor-bearing systems.

Multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: ten years of applications and trends.

PubMed

Huang, Ivy B; Keisler, Jeffrey; Linkov, Igor

2011-09-01

Decision-making in environmental projects requires consideration of trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, and economic impacts and is often complicated by various stakeholder views. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) emerged as a formal methodology to face available technical information and stakeholder values to support decisions in many fields and can be especially valuable in environmental decision making. This study reviews environmental applications of MCDA. Over 300 papers published between 2000 and 2009 reporting MCDA applications in the environmental field were identified through a series of queries in the Web of Science database. The papers were classified by their environmental application area, decision or intervention type. In addition, the papers were also classified by the MCDA methods used in the analysis (analytic hierarchy process, multi-attribute utility theory, and outranking). The results suggest that there is a significant growth in environmental applications of MCDA over the last decade across all environmental application areas. Multiple MCDA tools have been successfully used for environmental applications. Even though the use of the specific methods and tools varies in different application areas and geographic regions, our review of a few papers where several methods were used in parallel with the same problem indicates that recommended course of action does not vary significantly with the method applied. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Diffusion Modelling Reveals the Decision Making Processes Underlying Negative Judgement Bias in Rats.

PubMed

Hales, Claire A; Robinson, Emma S J; Houghton, Conor J

2016-01-01

Human decision making is modified by emotional state. Rodents exhibit similar biases during interpretation of ambiguous cues that can be altered by affective state manipulations. In this study, the impact of negative affective state on judgement bias in rats was measured using an ambiguous-cue interpretation task. Acute treatment with an anxiogenic drug (FG7142), and chronic restraint stress and social isolation both induced a bias towards more negative interpretation of the ambiguous cue. The diffusion model was fit to behavioural data to allow further analysis of the underlying decision making processes. To uncover the way in which parameters vary together in relation to affective state manipulations, independent component analysis was conducted on rate of information accumulation and distances to decision threshold parameters for control data. Results from this analysis were applied to parameters from negative affective state manipulations. These projected components were compared to control components to reveal the changes in decision making processes that are due to affective state manipulations. Negative affective bias in rodents induced by either FG7142 or chronic stress is due to a combination of more negative interpretation of the ambiguous cue, reduced anticipation of the high reward and increased anticipation of the low reward.

Evaluation of Nursing Documentation Completion of Stroke Patients in the Emergency Department: A Pre-Post Analysis Using Flowsheet Templates and Clinical Decision Support.

PubMed

Richardson, Karen J; Sengstack, Patricia; Doucette, Jeffrey N; Hammond, William E; Schertz, Matthew; Thompson, Julie; Johnson, Constance

2016-02-01

The primary aim of this performance improvement project was to determine whether the electronic health record implementation of stroke-specific nursing documentation flowsheet templates and clinical decision support alerts improved the nursing documentation of eligible stroke patients in seven stroke-certified emergency departments. Two system enhancements were introduced into the electronic record in an effort to improve nursing documentation: disease-specific documentation flowsheets and clinical decision support alerts. Using a pre-post design, project measures included six stroke management goals as defined by the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke and three clinical decision support measures based on entry of orders used to trigger documentation reminders for nursing: (1) the National Institutes of Health's Stroke Scale, (2) neurological checks, and (3) dysphagia screening. Data were reviewed 6 months prior (n = 2293) and 6 months following the intervention (n = 2588). Fisher exact test was used for statistical analysis. Statistical significance was found for documentation of five of the six stroke management goals, although effect sizes were small. Customizing flowsheets to meet the needs of nursing workflow showed improvement in the completion of documentation. The effects of the decision support alerts on the completeness of nursing documentation were not statistically significant (likely due to lack of order entry). For example, an order for the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale was entered only 10.7% of the time, which meant no alert would fire for nursing in the postintervention group. Future work should focus on decision support alerts that trigger reminders for clinicians to place relevant orders for this population.

Multicriteria decision analysis for including health interventions in the universal health coverage benefit package in Thailand.

PubMed

Youngkong, Sitaporn; Baltussen, Rob; Tantivess, Sripen; Mohara, Adun; Teerawattananon, Yot

2012-01-01

Considering rising health expenditure on the one hand and increasing public expectations on the other hand, there is a need for explicit health care rationing to secure public acceptance of coverage decisions of health interventions. The National Health Security Office, the institute managing the Universal Coverage Scheme in Thailand, recently called for more rational, transparent, and fair decisions on the public reimbursement of health interventions. This article describes the application of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to guide the coverage decisions on including health interventions in the Universal Coverage Scheme health benefit package in the period 2009-2010. We described the MCDA priority-setting process through participatory observation and evaluated the rational, transparency, and fairness of the priority-setting process against the accountability for reasonableness framework. The MCDA was applied in four steps: 1) 17 interventions were nominated for assessment; 2) nine interventions were selected for further quantitative assessment on the basis of the following criteria: size of population affected by disease, severity of disease, effectiveness of health intervention, variation in practice, economic impact on household expenditure, and equity and social implications; 3) these interventions were then assessed in terms of cost-effectiveness and budget impact; and 4) decision makers qualitatively appraised, deliberated, and reached consensus on which interventions should be adopted in the package. This project was carried out in a real-world context and has considerably contributed to the rational, transparent, and fair priority-setting process through the application of MCDA. Although the present project has applied MCDA in the Thai context, MCDA is adaptable to other settings. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Research applications in digital radiology. Big data and co].

PubMed

Müller, H; Hanbury, A

2016-02-01

Medical imaging produces increasingly complex images (e.g. thinner slices and higher resolution) with more protocols, so that image reading has also become much more complex. More information needs to be processed and usually the number of radiologists available for these tasks has not increased to the same extent. The objective of this article is to present current research results from projects on the use of image data for clinical decision support. An infrastructure that can allow large volumes of data to be accessed is presented. In this way the best performing tools can be identified without the medical data having to leave secure servers. The text presents the results of the VISCERAL and Khresmoi EU-funded projects, which allow the analysis of previous cases from institutional archives to support decision-making and for process automation. The results also represent a secure evaluation environment for medical image analysis. This allows the use of data extracted from past cases to solve information needs occurring when diagnosing new cases. The presented research prototypes allow direct extraction of knowledge from the visual data of the images and to use this for decision support or process automation. Real clinical use has not been tested but several subjective user tests showed the effectiveness and efficiency of the process. The future in radiology will clearly depend on better use of the important knowledge in clinical image archives to automate processes and aid decision-making via big data analysis. This can help concentrate the work of radiologists towards the most important parts of diagnostics.

Influence of Selected Stakeholders of Construction Investment Projects on the Course of Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bizon-Górecka, Jadwiga; Górecki, Jarosław

2017-10-01

The article presents an entity perspective of the construction investment projects. In a course of the project there are stakeholders who have an indirect influence (e.g. decision-makers in the selection of projects) or a direct influence (e.g. members of the project team). An intuitive opinion about a significant influence of project stakeholders on the project’s course encouraged the authors to undertake a research in this area. The article illustrates the initial phases of the construction project life cycle in a perspective of the entities and, in particular, a role of different stakeholders in making decisions that affect a course of the project. An analysis of the structure of the construction project life cycle makes a substantial involvement of various subjects in the initial phases of the project, i.e. in an initial phase and during a creation of the structures. A key point is to underline the factors of decision-making by the participants of the construction process. It was indicated that the stakeholders have a different impact on the course of the project. In large projects, which have many stakeholders, their role in the implementation of the investment project can vary, depending on the life cycle of the project. They can have positive or negative impacts on achieving the project objectives. The paper presents the results of 100 surveys made among participants of the building processes, executors of the construction projects in the Kuyavian-Pomeranian region. The study was conducted in December 2016 and January 2017. It revealed what is the impact of individual stakeholders of the construction projects on the course of the project. A special attention was paid to a complex relationship between objectives of the project and stakeholders’ goals. A great care to the smallest possible number of risks, which may arise from the different objectives of the project and its stakeholders’ goals, should be focused on the augmentation of correlation of measures of the goals. It is crucial to identify the stakeholders, whereas it is a continuous and quite difficult process. However, when ignoring the impact of specific stakeholders on the implementation of the project, a duration of the project and its costs may increase. A main problem, in establishing a relationship of participants in the construction process, is to take into account the risk of all project stakeholders.

THE NGA-DOE GRANT TO EXAMINE CRITICAL ISSUES RELATED TO RADIOACTIVE WASTE AND MATERIALS DISPOSITION INVOLVING DOE FACILITIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ethan W. Brown

2001-09-01

Through the National Governors' Association (NGA) project ''Critical Issues Related to Radioactive Waste and Materials Disposition Involving DOE Facilities'' NGA brings together Governors' policy advisors, state regulators, and DOE officials to examine critical issues related to the cleanup and operation of DOE nuclear weapons and research facilities. Topics explored through this project include: Decisions involving disposal of mixed, low-level, and transuranic (TRU) waste and disposition of nuclear materials. Decisions involving DOE budget requests and their effect on environmental cleanup and compliance at DOE facilities. Strategies to treat mixed, low-level, and transuranic (TRU) waste and their effect on individual sites inmore » the complex. Changes to the FFCA site treatment plans as a result of proposals in the Department's Accelerating Cleanup: Paths to Closure plan and contractor integration analysis. Interstate waste and materials shipments. Reforms to existing RCRA and CERCLA regulations/guidance to address regulatory overlap and risks posed by DOE wastes. The overarching theme of this project is to help the Department improve coordination of its major program decisions with Governors' offices and state regulators and to ensure such decisions reflect input from these key state officials and stakeholders. This report summarizes activities conducted during the period from April 1, 2001 through June 30, 2001, under the NGA grant.« less

16 CFR 1000.25 - Office of Hazard Identification and Reduction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... has line authority over the Directorates for Epidemiology and Health Sciences, Economic Analysis, Engineering Sciences, and Laboratory Sciences. The Office develops strategies for and implements the agency's... social impacts of projects are comprehensively and objectively presented to the Commission for decision. ...

16 CFR 1000.25 - Office of Hazard Identification and Reduction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... has line authority over the Directorates for Epidemiology and Health Sciences, Economic Analysis, Engineering Sciences, and Laboratory Sciences. The Office develops strategies for and implements the agency's... social impacts of projects are comprehensively and objectively presented to the Commission for decision. ...

16 CFR 1000.25 - Office of Hazard Identification and Reduction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... has line authority over the Directorates for Epidemiology and Health Sciences, Economic Analysis, Engineering Sciences, and Laboratory Sciences. The Office develops strategies for and implements the agency's... social impacts of projects are comprehensively and objectively presented to the Commission for decision. ...

16 CFR 1000.25 - Office of Hazard Identification and Reduction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... has line authority over the Directorates for Epidemiology and Health Sciences, Economic Analysis, Engineering Sciences, and Laboratory Sciences. The Office develops strategies for and implements the agency's... social impacts of projects are comprehensively and objectively presented to the Commission for decision. ...

Maintenance Decision Support System: Pilot Study and Cost-Benefit Analysis (Phase 2.5)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-07-01

This project focused on several tasks: development of in-vehicle hardware that permits implementation of an MDSS, development of software to collect and process road and weather data, a cost-benefit study, and pilot-scale implementation. Two Automati...

Maintenance Decision Support System : Pilot Study and Cost-Benefit Analysis (Phase 2)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-07-01

This project focused on several tasks: development of in-vehicle hardware that permits implementation of an MDSS, development of software to collect and process road and weather data, a cost-benefit study, and pilot-scale implementation. Two Automati...

Integrated corridor management initiative : demonstration phase evaluation, San Diego decision support system analysis test plan.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-01-01

This report demonstrates the benefits and potential pitfalls of deploying and operating an integrated freeway and arterial management system. In particular, it discusses the lessons learned about the Medical Center Corridor (MCC) Project deployed in ...

A vulnerability driven approach to identify adverse climate and land use change combinations for critical hydrologic indicator thresholds: Application to a watershed in Pennsylvania, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, R.; Wagener, T.; Crane, R.; Mann, M. E.; Ning, L.

2014-04-01

Large uncertainties in streamflow projections derived from downscaled climate projections of precipitation and temperature can render such simulations of limited value for decision making in the context of water resources management. New approaches are being sought to provide decision makers with robust information in the face of such large uncertainties. We present an alternative approach that starts with the stakeholder's definition of vulnerable ranges for relevant hydrologic indicators. Then the modeled system is analyzed to assess under what conditions these thresholds are exceeded. The space of possible climates and land use combinations for a watershed is explored to isolate subspaces that lead to vulnerability, while considering model parameter uncertainty in the analysis. We implement this concept using classification and regression trees (CART) that separate the input space of climate and land use change into those combinations that lead to vulnerability and those that do not. We test our method in a Pennsylvania watershed for nine ecological and water resources related streamflow indicators for which an increase in temperature between 3°C and 6°C and change in precipitation between -17% and 19% is projected. Our approach provides several new insights, for example, we show that even small decreases in precipitation (˜5%) combined with temperature increases greater than 2.5°C can push the mean annual runoff into a slightly vulnerable regime. Using this impact and stakeholder driven strategy, we explore the decision-relevant space more fully and provide information to the decision maker even if climate change projections are ambiguous.

ANFIS multi criteria decision making for overseas construction projects: a methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utama, W. P.; Chan, A. P. C.; Zulherman; Zahoor, H.; Gao, R.; Jumas, D. Y.

2018-02-01

A critical part when a company targeting a foreign market is how to make a better decision in connection with potential project selection. Since different attributes of information are often incomplete, imprecise and ill-defined in overseas projects selection, the process of decision making by relying on the experiences and intuition is a risky attitude. This paper aims to demonstrate a decision support method in deciding overseas construction projects (OCPs). An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), the amalgamation of Neural Network and Fuzzy Theory, was used as decision support tool to decide to go or not go on OCPs. Root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of correlation (R) were employed to identify the ANFIS system indicating an optimum and efficient result. The optimum result was obtained from ANFIS network with two input membership functions, Gaussian membership function (gaussmf) and hybrid optimization method. The result shows that ANFIS may help the decision-making process for go/not go decision in OCPs.

Bridging the Gap Between NASA Earth Observations and Decision Makers Through the NASA Develop National Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remillard, C. M.; Madden, M.; Favors, J.; Childs-Gleason, L.; Ross, K. W.; Rogers, L.; Ruiz, M. L.

2016-06-01

The NASA DEVELOP National Program bridges the gap between NASA Earth Science and society by building capacity in both participants and partner organizations that collaborate to conduct projects. These rapid feasibility projects highlight the capabilities of satellite and aerial Earth observations. Immersion of decision and policy makers in these feasibility projects increases awareness of the capabilities of Earth observations and contributes to the tools and resources available to support enhanced decision making. This paper will present the DEVELOP model, best practices, and two case studies, the Colombia Ecological Forecasting project and the Miami-Dade County Ecological Forecasting project, that showcase the successful adoption of tools and methods for decision making. Through over 90 projects each year, DEVELOP is always striving for the innovative, practical, and beneficial use of NASA Earth science data.

Recent advances in applying decision science to managing national forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marcot, Bruce G.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Runge, Michael C.; Thompson, Frank R.; McNulty, Steven; Cleaves, David; Tomosy, Monica; Fisher, Larry A.; Andrew, Bliss

2012-01-01

Management of federal public forests to meet sustainability goals and multiple use regulations is an immense challenge. To succeed, we suggest use of formal decision science procedures and tools in the context of structured decision making (SDM). SDM entails four stages: problem structuring (framing the problem and defining objectives and evaluation criteria), problem analysis (defining alternatives, evaluating likely consequences, identifying key uncertainties, and analyzing tradeoffs), decision point (identifying the preferred alternative), and implementation and monitoring the preferred alternative with adaptive management feedbacks. We list a wide array of models, techniques, and tools available for each stage, and provide three case studies of their selected use in National Forest land management and project plans. Successful use of SDM involves participation by decision-makers, analysts, scientists, and stakeholders. We suggest specific areas for training and instituting SDM to foster transparency, rigor, clarity, and inclusiveness in formal decision processes regarding management of national forests.

Isoniazid preventive therapy for tuberculosis. Decision analysis considering ethnicity and gender.

PubMed

Jordan, T J; Lewit, E M; Reichman, L B

1991-12-01

The decision to prescribe or withhold isoniazid (INH) preventive therapy for low-risk tuberculin reactors has been highly controversial, primarily due to isoniazid's possible hepatotoxic effects. Previous analyses have explored the INH decision only from the perspective of patient age, recognizing that the risks of INH-induced hepatotoxicity are age related. Decision analyses presented in this paper assess the impact of gender and ethnic group, as well as age, on the INH decision. Results for low-risk patients favor prescribing INH preventive therapy for all 20-yr-olds, all 35-yr-olds except black women, and no 50-yr-olds, projecting life expectancy benefits that range from 3 to 19 days. A comparison set of analyses performed for high-risk patients favors prescribing INH for all groups except 50-yr-old black women. These findings suggest that ethnicity, gender, and age should be considered when making the decision to prescribe or withhold INH preventive therapy.

Testing the robustness of management decisions to uncertainty: Everglades restoration scenarios.

PubMed

Fuller, Michael M; Gross, Louis J; Duke-Sylvester, Scott M; Palmer, Mark

2008-04-01

To effectively manage large natural reserves, resource managers must prepare for future contingencies while balancing the often conflicting priorities of different stakeholders. To deal with these issues, managers routinely employ models to project the response of ecosystems to different scenarios that represent alternative management plans or environmental forecasts. Scenario analysis is often used to rank such alternatives to aid the decision making process. However, model projections are subject to uncertainty in assumptions about model structure, parameter values, environmental inputs, and subcomponent interactions. We introduce an approach for testing the robustness of model-based management decisions to the uncertainty inherent in complex ecological models and their inputs. We use relative assessment to quantify the relative impacts of uncertainty on scenario ranking. To illustrate our approach we consider uncertainty in parameter values and uncertainty in input data, with specific examples drawn from the Florida Everglades restoration project. Our examples focus on two alternative 30-year hydrologic management plans that were ranked according to their overall impacts on wildlife habitat potential. We tested the assumption that varying the parameter settings and inputs of habitat index models does not change the rank order of the hydrologic plans. We compared the average projected index of habitat potential for four endemic species and two wading-bird guilds to rank the plans, accounting for variations in parameter settings and water level inputs associated with hypothetical future climates. Indices of habitat potential were based on projections from spatially explicit models that are closely tied to hydrology. For the American alligator, the rank order of the hydrologic plans was unaffected by substantial variation in model parameters. By contrast, simulated major shifts in water levels led to reversals in the ranks of the hydrologic plans in 24.1-30.6% of the projections for the wading bird guilds and several individual species. By exposing the differential effects of uncertainty, relative assessment can help resource managers assess the robustness of scenario choice in model-based policy decisions.

Developing a Robust Strategy for Implementing a Water Resources Master Plan in Lima, Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kalra, N.; Groves, D.; Bonzanigo, L.; Molina-Perez, E.

2015-12-01

Lima, the capital of Peru, faces significant water stress. It is the fifth largest metropolitan area in Latin America, and the second largest desert city in the world. The city has developed a Master Plan of major investment projects to improve water reliability until 2040. Yet key questions remain. Is the Master Plan sufficient for ensuring reliability in the face of deeply uncertain future climate change and demand? How do uncertain budget and project feasibility conditions shape Lima's options? How should the investments in the plan be prioritized, and can some be delayed? Lima is not alone in facing these planning challenges. Governments invest billions of dollars annually in long-term projects. Yet deep uncertainties pose formidable challenges to making near-term decisions that make long-term sense. The World Bank has spearheaded a community of practice on methods for Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMU). This pilot project in Peru is the first in-depth application of DMU techniques to water supply planning in a developing country. It builds on prior analysis done in New York, California, and for the Colorado River, yet shows how these methods can be applied in regions which do not have as advanced data or tools available. The project combines three methods in particular -- Robust Decision Making, Decision Scaling, and Adaptive Pathways -- to help Lima implement its Master Plan in a way that is robust, no-regret, and adaptive. It was done in close partnership with SEDAPAL, the water utility company in Lima, and in coordination with other national WRM and meteorological agencies. This talk will: Present the planning challenges Lima and other cities face, including climate change Describe DMU methodologies and how they were applied in collaboration with SEDAPAL Summarize recommendations for achieving long-term water reliability in Lima Suggest how these methodologies can benefit other investment projects in developing countries.

Surface transportation weather decision support requirements : operational concept description : advanced-integrated decision support using weather information for surface transportation decisions makers : draft version 2.0

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-07-14

This is a draft document for the Surface Transportation Weather Decision Support Requirements (STWDSR) project. The STWDSR project is being conducted for the FHWAs Office of Transportation Operations (HOTO) Road Weather Management Program by Mitre...

Integrating NASA Earth Observations into the Global Indicator Framework for Monitoring the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crepps, G.; Gotschalk, E.; Childs-Gleason, L. M.; Favors, J.; Ruiz, M. L.; Allsbrook, K. N.; Rogers, L.; Ross, K. W.

2016-12-01

The NASA DEVELOP National Program conducts rapid 10-week feasibility projects that build decision makers' capacity to utilize NASA Earth observations in their decision making. Teams, in collaboration with partner organizations, conduct projects that create end products such as maps, analyses, and automated tools tailored for their partners' specific decision making needs. These projects illustrate the varied applications about which Earth observations can assist in making better informed decisions, such topics as land use changes, ecological forecasting, public health, and species habitats. As a capacity building program, DEVELOP is interested in understanding how these end products are utilized once the project is over and if Earth observations become a regular tool in the partner's decision making toolkit. While DEVELOP's niche is short-term projects, to assess the impacts of these projects, a longer-term scale is needed. As a result, DEVELOP has created a project strength metrics, and partner assessments, pre- and post-project, as well as a follow up form. This presentation explores the challenges in both quantitative and qualitative assessments of valuing the contributions of these Earth observation tools. This proposal lays out the assessment framework created within the program, and illustrates case studies in which projects have been assessed and long-term partner use of tools examined and quantified.

A Mathematical Framework for Image Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-08-01

The results reported here were derived from the research project ’A Mathematical Framework for Image Analysis ’ supported by the Office of Naval...Research, contract N00014-88-K-0289 to Brown University. A common theme for the work reported is the use of probabilistic methods for problems in image ... analysis and image reconstruction. Five areas of research are described: rigid body recognition using a decision tree/combinatorial approach; nonrigid

Prevalence of clinically significant decisional conflict: an analysis of five studies on decision-making in primary care.

PubMed

Thompson-Leduc, Philippe; Turcotte, Stéphane; Labrecque, Michel; Légaré, France

2016-06-28

Unresolved clinically significant decisional conflict (CSDC) in patients following a consultation with health professionals is often the result of inadequate patient involvement in decision-making and may result in poor outcomes. We sought to identify the prevalence of CSDC in studies on decision-making in primary care and to explore its risk factors. We performed a secondary analysis of existing data sets from studies conducted in Primary Care Practice-Based Research Networks in Québec and Ontario, Canada. Eligible studies included a patient-reported measure on the 16-item Decisional Conflict Scale (DCS) following a decision made with a healthcare professional with no study design restriction. CSDC was defined as a score ≥25/100 on the DCS. The prevalence of CSDC was stratified by sex; and patient-level logistic regression analysis was performed to explore its potential risk factors. Data sets of studies were analysed individually and qualitatively compared. 5 projects conducted between 2003 and 2010 were included. They covered a range of decisions: prenatal genetic screening, antibiotics for acute respiratory infections and miscellaneous. Altogether, the 5 projects gathered data from encounters with a total of 1338 primary care patients (69% female; range of age 15-83). The prevalence of CSDC in patients varied across studies and ranged from 10.3% (95% CI 7.2% to 13.4%) to 31.1% (95% CI 26.6% to 35.6%). Across the 5 studies, risk factors of CSDC included being male, living alone and being 45 or older. Prevalence of CSDC in patients who had enrolled in studies conducted in primary care contexts was substantial and appeared to vary according to the type of decision as well as to patient characteristics such as sex, living arrangement and age. Patients presenting risk factors of CSDC should be offered tools to increase their involvement in decision-making. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Arctic Collaborative Environment: A New Multi-National Partnership for Arctic Science and Decision Support

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laymon, Charles A,; Kress, Martin P.; McCracken, Jeff E.; Spehn, Stephen L.; Tanner, Steve

2011-01-01

The Arctic Collaborative Environment (ACE) project is a new international partnership for information sharing to meet the challenges of addressing Arctic. The goal of ACE is to create an open source, web-based, multi-national monitoring, analysis, and visualization decision-support system for Arctic environmental assessment, management, and sustainability. This paper will describe the concept, system architecture, and data products that are being developed and disseminated among partners and independent users through remote access.

Energy transition strategies: a progress report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Manne, A.S.

1979-09-01

Energy Transition Strategies is an EPRI project that has examined different aspects of the long-term problem of transition from scarce to abundant energy resources. This report presents three papers that were produced as part of that project. The first paper, A Decision Analysis of the US Breeder Reactor Program by Alan S. Manne and Richard G. Richels, applies the ETA-MACRO model to the debate over breeder R and D strategy. The second paper, Alternative Models of Energy Demand by Sergio Granville (EAPA 5:2810), examines the econometric evidence on the elasticity of substitution. The third paper, Exhaustible Resource Models: The Valuemore » of Information by Hung-po Chao, extends the Hotelling-Nordhaus exhaustible resource model by (1) allowing for a gradual shift to the backstop technology and (2) allowing for uncertainty about the cost of this backstop and the price elasticity of energy demand. The Summary of the report also abstracts four other papers produced by the project: ETA-MACRO: A Model of Energy-Economy Interactions EAPA 4:2289, The Fable of the Elephant and the Rabbit; Probability Assessments and Decision Analysis of Alternative Nuclear Fuel Cycles; and Energy Transition Strategies for the Industrialized Nations.« less

Analysis of Aviation Safety Reporting System Incident Data Associated With the Technical Challenges of the Vehicle Systems Safety Technology Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Withrow, Colleen A.; Reveley, Mary S.

2014-01-01

This analysis was conducted to support the Vehicle Systems Safety Technology (VSST) Project of the Aviation Safety Program (AVsP) milestone VSST4.2.1.01, "Identification of VSST-Related Trends." In particular, this is a review of incident data from the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS). The following three VSST-related technical challenges (TCs) were the focus of the incidents searched in the ASRS database: (1) Vechicle health assurance, (2) Effective crew-system interactions and decisions in all conditions; and (3) Aircraft loss of control prevention, mitigation, and recovery.

INVENTORY AND ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE SENSITIVE DECISIONS

EPA Science Inventory

The project will create a pilot inventory of climate-sensitive resource managment decision. The project will develop and demonstrate a new approach to collecting systematic information about the context and characteristics of climate-sensitive decisions and using this informatio...

Key Decision Record Creation and Approval Module

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hebert, Barrt; Messer, Elizabeth A.; Albasini, Colby; Le, Thang; ORourke, William, Sr.; Stiglets, Tim; Strain, Ted

2012-01-01

Retaining good key decision records is critical to ensuring the success of a project or operation. Having adequately documented decisions with supporting documents and rationale can greatly reduce the amount of rework or reinvention over a project's, vehicle's, or facility's lifecycle. Stennis Space Center developed and uses a software tool that automates the Key Decision Record (KDR) process for its engineering and test projects. It provides the ability for a user to log key decisions that are made during the course of a project. By customizing Parametric Technology Corporation's (PTC) Windchill product, the team was able to log all information about a decision, and electronically route that information for approval. Customizing the Windchill product allowed the team to directly connect these decisions to the engineering data that it might affect and notify data owners of the decision. The user interface was created in JSP and Javascript, within the OOTB (Out of the Box) Windchill product, allowing users to create KDRs. Not only does this interface allow users to create and track KDRs, but it also plugs directly into the OOTB ability to associate these decision records with other relevant engineering data such as drawings, designs, models, requirements, or specifications

Early Design Energy Analysis Using Building Information Modeling Technology

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-11-01

building, (a) floor plan and (b) 3D image. ....................................... 50 Figure 28. Comparison of different energy estimates...when they make the biggest impact on building life-cycle costs. Traditionally, most building energy analyses have been conducted late in design, by...complete energy analysis. This method enables project teams to make energy conscious decisions early in design when they impact building life-cycle

Analysis of Decision Making Skills for Large Scale Disaster Response

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-08-21

Capability to influence and collaborate Compassion Teamwork Communication Leadership Provide vision of outcome / set priorities Confidence, courage to make...project evaluates the viability of expanding the use of serious games to augment classroom training, tabletop and full scale exercise, and actual...training, evaluation, analysis, and technology ex- ploration. Those techniques have found successful niches, but their wider applicability faces

Development of Cost Benefit Methodology for Scientific and Technical Information Communication and Application to Information Analysis Centers. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mason, Robert M.; And Others

This document presents a research effort intended to improve the economic information available for formulating politics and making decisions related to Information Analysis Centers (IAC's) and IAC services. The project used a system of IAC information activities to analyze the functional aspects of IAC services, calculate the present value of net…

Rapid Development: A Content Analysis Comparison of Literature and Purposive Sampling of AFRL Rapid Reaction Projects

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-01

systems engineering technical and technical management processes. Technical Planning, Stakeholders Requirements Development, and Architecture Design were...Stakeholder Requirements Definition, Architecture Design and Technical Planning. A purposive sampling of AFRL rapid development program managers and engineers...emphasize one process over another however Architecture Design , Implementation scored higher among Technical Processes. Decision Analysis, Technical

Interim analysis: A rational approach of decision making in clinical trial.

PubMed

Kumar, Amal; Chakraborty, Bhaswat S

2016-01-01

Interim analysis of especially sizeable trials keeps the decision process free of conflict of interest while considering cost, resources, and meaningfulness of the project. Whenever necessary, such interim analysis can also call for potential termination or appropriate modification in sample size, study design, and even an early declaration of success. Given the extraordinary size and complexity today, this rational approach helps to analyze and predict the outcomes of a clinical trial that incorporate what is learned during the course of a study or a clinical development program. Such approach can also fill the gap by directing the resources toward relevant and optimized clinical trials between unmet medical needs and interventions being tested currently rather than fulfilling only business and profit goals.

Louisiana's 2017 Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haase, B.

2017-12-01

The Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority is charged with coordinating restoration and protection investments through the development and implementation of Louisiana's Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast. The first master plan was submitted to the Louisiana Legislature in 2007 and is mandated to be updated every five years. The plan's objectives are to reduce economic losses from flooding, promote sustainability by harnessing natural processes, provide habitats for commercial and recreational activities, sustain cultural heritage and promote a viable working coast. Two goals drive decision making about the appropriate suite of restoration and protection projects to include in the Plan: restore and maintain Louisiana's wetlands and provide flood protection for coastal Louisiana's citizens. As part of the decision making process, a wide range of additional metrics are used to evaluate the complex, competing needs of communities, industries, navigation and fisheries. The master plan decision making process includes the identification of individual protection and restoration projects that are evaluated with landscape, storm surge, and risk assessment models and then ranked by how well they perform over time across the set of decision drivers and metrics. High performing projects are assembled into alternatives constrained by available funding and river resources. The planning process is grounded not only on extensive scientific analysis but also on interdisciplinary collaboration between scientists, engineers, planners, community advocates, and coastal stakeholders which creates the long-term dialogue needed for complex environmental planning decisions. It is through this collaboration that recommended alternatives are reviewed and modified to develop the final Plan. Keywords:alternative formulation, comprehensive planning, ecosystem restoration, flood risk reduction and stakeholder engagement

What Can Funders Do to Better Link Science with Decisions? Case Studies of Coastal Communities and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matso, Kalle E.; Becker, Mimi L.

2014-12-01

Many reports and studies have noted that a significant portion of problem-oriented coastal science does not actually link to decisions. Here, three competitively funded project case studies are studied to determine what funders can and should do to better link science with decisions. The qualitative analysis used for this study indicates that the studied program was seen as being unusually attentive to the issue of linking science to decisions, as opposed to simply generating new knowledge. Nevertheless, much of the data indicate that funders can and should do more. Three ideas figured most prominently in the qualitative data: (1) funders should do more to ensure that the problem itself is defined more thoroughly with people who are envisioned as potential users of the science; (2) funders need to allocate more resources and attention to communicating effectively (with users) throughout the project; and (3) funders need to demand more engagement of users throughout the project. These findings have important implications for how funders review and support science, especially when competitive processes are used. Most importantly, funders should adjust what kind of science they ask for. Secondly, funders need to change who is involved in the review process. Currently, review processes focus on knowledge generation, which means that the reviewers themselves have expertise in that area. Instead, review panels should be balanced between those who focus on knowledge generation and those who focus on linking knowledge to decisions; this is a separate but critical discipline currently left out of the review process.

16 CFR § 1000.25 - Office of Hazard Identification and Reduction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... has line authority over the Directorates for Epidemiology and Health Sciences, Economic Analysis, Engineering Sciences, and Laboratory Sciences. The Office develops strategies for and implements the agency's... social impacts of projects are comprehensively and objectively presented to the Commission for decision. ...

Communication During an Environmental Decision

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stamm, Keith R.; Bowes, John E.

1972-01-01

An analysis of information exchange about a Corps of Engineers water management project reveals inefficiency in mass media communication, thus inhibiting knowledgeable public action. The particular failings of current communication channels and procedures (or lack of them) are documented, and suggestions are made for increasing the contribution of…

Risk assessment as standard work in design.

PubMed

Morrill, Patricia W

2013-01-01

This case study article examines a formal risk assessment as part of the decision making process for design solutions in high risk areas. The overview of the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) tool with examples of its application in hospital building projects will demonstrate the benefit of those structured conversations. This article illustrates how two hospitals used FMEA when integrating operational processes with building projects: (1) adjacency decision for Intensive Care Unit (ICU); and (2) distance concern for handling of specimens from Surgery to Lab. Both case studies involved interviews that exposed facility solution concerns. Just-in-time studies using the FMEA followed the same risk assessment process with the same workshop facilitator involving structured conversations in analyzing risks. In both cases, participants uncovered key areas of risk enabling them to take the necessary next steps. While the focus of this article is not the actual design solution, it is apparent that the risk assessment brought clarity to the situations resulting in prompt decision making about facility solutions. Hospitals are inherently risky environments; therefore, use of the formal risk assessment process, FMEA, is an opportunity for design professionals to apply more rigor to design decision making when facility solutions impact operations in high risk areas. Case study, decision making, hospital, infection control, strategy, work environment.

The no-project alternative analysis: An early product of the Tahoe Decision Support System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halsing, David L.; Hessenflow, Mark L.; Wein, Anne

2005-01-01

We report on the development of a No-project alternative analysis (NPAA) or “business as usual” scenario with respect to a 20-year projection of 21 indicators of environmental and socioeconomic conditions in the Lake Tahoe Basin for the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA). Our effort was inspired by earlier work that investigated the tradeoffs between an environmental and an economic objective. The NPAA study has implications for a longer term goal of building a Tahoe Decision Support System (TDSS) to assist the TRPA and other Basin agencies in assessing the outcomes of management strategies. The NPAA assumes no major deviations from current management practices or from recent environmental or societal trends and planned Environmental Improvement Program (EIP) projects. Quantitative “scenario generation” tools were constructed to simulate site-specific land uses, various population categories, and associated vehicle miles traveled. Projections of each indicator’s attainment status were made by building visual conceptual models of the relevant natural and social processes, extrapolating trends, and using available models, research, and expert opinion. We present results of the NPAA, projected indicator status, key factors affecting the indicators, indicator functionality, and knowledge gaps. One important result is that current management practices may slow the loss or degradation of environmental qualities but not halt or reverse it. Our analysis also predicts an increase in recreation and commuting into and within the basin, primarily in private vehicles. Private vehicles, which are a critical mechanism by which the Basin population affects the surrounding environment, are a key determinant of air-quality indicators, a source of particulate matter affecting Secchi depth, a source of noise, and a factor in recreational and scenic quality, largely owing to congestion. Key uncertainties in the NPAA include climate change, EIP project effectiveness, and external population, economic activity, and air pollution.

Methodology Development for Assessment of Spaceport Technology Returns and Risks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joglekar, Prafulla; Zapata, Edgar

2001-01-01

As part of Kennedy Space Center's (KSC's) challenge to open the space frontier, new spaceport technologies must be developed, matured and successfully transitioned to operational systems. R&D investment decisions can be considered from multiple perspectives. Near mid and far term technology horizons must be understood. Because a multitude of technology investment opportunities are available, we must identify choices that promise the greatest likelihood of significant lifecycle At the same time, the costs and risks of any choice must be well understood and balanced against its potential returns The problem is not one of simply rank- ordering projects in terms of their desirability. KSC wants to determine a portfolio of projects that simultaneously satisfies multiple goals, such as getting the biggest bang for the buck, supporting projects that may be too risky for private funding, staying within annual budget cycles without foregoing the requirements of a long term technology vision, and ensuring the development of a diversity of technologies that, support the variety of operational functions involved in space transportation. This work aims to assist in the development of in methods and techniques that support strategic technology investment decisions and ease the process of determining an optimal portfolio of spaceport R&D investments. Available literature on risks and returns to R&D is reviewed and most useful pieces are brought to the attention of the Spaceport Technology Development Office (STDO). KSC's current project management procedures are reviewed. It is found that the "one size fits all" nature of KSC's existing procedures and project selection criteria is not conducive to prudent decision-making. Directions for improving KSC's - procedures and criteria are outlined. With help of a contractor, STDO is currently developing a tool, named Change Management Analysis Tool (CMAT)/ Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT), to assist KSC's R&D portfolio determination. A critical review of CMAT/PAT is undertaken. Directions for the improvement of this tool are provided. STDO and KSC intend to follow up on many, if not all, of the recommendations provided.

Buying a Car: Decisions, Decisions. Book Two. Project Drive.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zook, Doris; And Others

This Project Drive booklet titled Buying a Car: Decisions, Decisions is one of eight booklets designed for intermediate level English-as-a-second-language students and low-level adult basic education/basic reading students. The goal of the booklet is to aid the student in developing the oral and sight vocabulary necessary for a basic driver…

A Framework for Assessment of Aviation Safety Technology Portfolios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Sharon M.; Reveley, Mary S.

2014-01-01

The programs within NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) conduct research and development to improve the national air transportation system so that Americans can travel as safely as possible. NASA aviation safety systems analysis personnel support various levels of ARMD management in their fulfillment of system analysis and technology prioritization as defined in the agency's program and project requirements. This paper provides a framework for the assessment of aviation safety research and technology portfolios that includes metrics such as projected impact on current and future safety, technical development risk and implementation risk. The paper also contains methods for presenting portfolio analysis and aviation safety Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) output results to management using bubble charts and quantitative decision analysis techniques.

Interrupted Time Series Versus Statistical Process Control in Quality Improvement Projects.

PubMed

Andersson Hagiwara, Magnus; Andersson Gäre, Boel; Elg, Mattias

2016-01-01

To measure the effect of quality improvement interventions, it is appropriate to use analysis methods that measure data over time. Examples of such methods include statistical process control analysis and interrupted time series with segmented regression analysis. This article compares the use of statistical process control analysis and interrupted time series with segmented regression analysis for evaluating the longitudinal effects of quality improvement interventions, using an example study on an evaluation of a computerized decision support system.

Reducing construction waste: A study of urban infrastructure projects.

PubMed

de Magalhães, Ruane Fernandes; Danilevicz, Ângela de Moura Ferreira; Saurin, Tarcisio Abreu

2017-09-01

The construction industry is well-known for producing waste detrimental to the environment, and its impacts have increased with the development process of cities. Although there are several studies focused on the environmental impact of residential and commercial buildings, less knowledge is available regarding decreasing construction waste (CW) generation in urban infrastructure projects. This study presents best practices to reduce waste in the said projects, stressing the role of decision-making in the design stage and the effective management of construction processes in public sector. The best practices were identified from literature review, document analysis in 14 projects of urban infrastructure, and both qualitative and quantitative survey with 18 experts (architects and engineers) playing different roles on those projects. The contributions of these research are: (i) the identification of the main building techniques related to the urban design typologies analyzed; (ii) the identification of cause-effect relationships between the design choices and the CW generation diagnosis; (iii) the proposal of a checklist to support the decision-making process, that can be used as a control and evaluation instrument when developing urban infrastructure designs, focused on the construction waste minimization (CWM). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Critical thinking by nurses on ethical issues like the termination of pregnancies.

PubMed

Botes, A

2000-09-01

This research forms part of a larger interdisciplinary research project on the termination of pregnancies. The focus of this part of the project is on the ethical issues related to termination of pregnancies. The practice of the professional nurse is confronted with ethical dilemmas and disputes. Whether the nurse chooses to participate in the termination of pregnancies or not, the core function of the nurse is that of counseling and ethical decision-making. Effective counseling requires empathy, respect for human rights and unconditional acceptance of a person. Making ethical decisions implies making critical decisions. It is self-evident, therefore, that such decisions should be based on sound arguments and logical reasoning. It is of vital importance that ethical decisions can be justified on rational ground. Decision-making is a critical thinking approach process for choosing the best action to meet a desired goal. The research question that is relevant for this paper is: Are nurses thinking critically about ethical issues like the termination of pregnancies? To answer the research question a qualitative, exploratory, descriptive design was used (Mouton, 1996:103-169). Registered nurses were selected purposively (Creswell, 1994:15). 1200 registered nurses completed the open-ended questionnaires. Focus group interviews were conducted with 22 registered nurses from a public hospital for women and child health services. Data analysis, using secondary data from open-ended questionnaires and transcribed focus group interviews, were based on the approach of Morse and Field (1994:25-34) and Strauss and Corbin (1990). The themes and categories from open coding were compared, conceptualized and linked with theories on critical thinking (Paul, 1994; Watson & Glaser, 1991 and the American Philosophical Association, 1990). The measures of Lincoln and Guba (1985) and Morse (1994) related to secondary data analysis were employed to ensure trustworthiness. Based on these findings the researcher concluded that nurses are not thinking critically when making ethical decisions concerning the termination of pregnancies. Recommendations are made as a possible solution for this problem.

The Multi-Attribute Group Decision-Making Method Based on Interval Grey Trapezoid Fuzzy Linguistic Variables.

PubMed

Yin, Kedong; Wang, Pengyu; Li, Xuemei

2017-12-13

With respect to multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) problems, where attribute values take the form of interval grey trapezoid fuzzy linguistic variables (IGTFLVs) and the weights (including expert and attribute weight) are unknown, improved grey relational MAGDM methods are proposed. First, the concept of IGTFLV, the operational rules, the distance between IGTFLVs, and the projection formula between the two IGTFLV vectors are defined. Second, the expert weights are determined by using the maximum proximity method based on the projection values between the IGTFLV vectors. The attribute weights are determined by the maximum deviation method and the priorities of alternatives are determined by improved grey relational analysis. Finally, an example is given to prove the effectiveness of the proposed method and the flexibility of IGTFLV.

Tools to support GHG emissions reduction : a regional effort, part 1 - carbon footprint estimation and decision support.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-09-01

Tools are proposed for carbon footprint estimation of transportation construction projects and decision support : for construction firms that must make equipment choice and usage decisions that affect profits, project duration : and greenhouse gas em...

Use of structured decision-making to explicitly incorporate environmental process understanding in management of coastal restoration projects: Case study on barrier islands of the northern Gulf of Mexico.

PubMed

Dalyander, P Soupy; Meyers, Michelle; Mattsson, Brady; Steyer, Gregory; Godsey, Elizabeth; McDonald, Justin; Byrnes, Mark; Ford, Mark

2016-12-01

Coastal ecosystem management typically relies on subjective interpretation of scientific understanding, with limited methods for explicitly incorporating process knowledge into decisions that must meet multiple, potentially competing stakeholder objectives. Conversely, the scientific community lacks methods for identifying which advancements in system understanding would have the highest value to decision-makers. A case in point is barrier island restoration, where decision-makers lack tools to objectively use system understanding to determine how to optimally use limited contingency funds when project construction in this dynamic environment does not proceed as expected. In this study, collaborative structured decision-making (SDM) was evaluated as an approach to incorporate process understanding into mid-construction decisions and to identify priority gaps in knowledge from a management perspective. The focus was a barrier island restoration project at Ship Island, Mississippi, where sand will be used to close an extensive breach that currently divides the island. SDM was used to estimate damage that may occur during construction, and guide repair decisions within the confines of limited availability of sand and funding to minimize adverse impacts to project objectives. Sand was identified as more limiting than funds, and unrepaired major breaching would negatively impact objectives. Repairing minor damage immediately was determined to be generally more cost effective (depending on the longshore extent) than risking more damage to a weakened project. Key gaps in process-understanding relative to project management were identified as the relationship of island width to breach formation; the amounts of sand lost during breaching, lowering, or narrowing of the berm; the potential for minor breaches to self-heal versus developing into a major breach; and the relationship between upstream nourishment and resiliency of the berm to storms. This application is a prototype for using structured decision-making in support of engineering projects in dynamic environments where mid-construction decisions may arise; highlights uncertainty about barrier island physical processes that limit the ability to make robust decisions; and demonstrates the potential for direct incorporation of process-based models in a formal adaptive management decision framework. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Use of structured decision-making to explicitly incorporate environmental process understanding in management of coastal restoration projects: Case study on barrier islands of the northern Gulf of Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dalyander, P. Soupy; Meyers, Michelle B.; Mattsson, Brady; Steyer, Gregory; Godsey, Elizabeth; McDonald, Justin; Byrnes, Mark R.; Ford, Mark

2016-01-01

Coastal ecosystem management typically relies on subjective interpretation of scientific understanding, with limited methods for explicitly incorporating process knowledge into decisions that must meet multiple, potentially competing stakeholder objectives. Conversely, the scientific community lacks methods for identifying which advancements in system understanding would have the highest value to decision-makers. A case in point is barrier island restoration, where decision-makers lack tools to objectively use system understanding to determine how to optimally use limited contingency funds when project construction in this dynamic environment does not proceed as expected. In this study, collaborative structured decision-making (SDM) was evaluated as an approach to incorporate process understanding into mid-construction decisions and to identify priority gaps in knowledge from a management perspective. The focus was a barrier island restoration project at Ship Island, Mississippi, where sand will be used to close an extensive breach that currently divides the island. SDM was used to estimate damage that may occur during construction, and guide repair decisions within the confines of limited availability of sand and funding to minimize adverse impacts to project objectives. Sand was identified as more limiting than funds, and unrepaired major breaching would negatively impact objectives. Repairing minor damage immediately was determined to be generally more cost effective (depending on the longshore extent) than risking more damage to a weakened project. Key gaps in process-understanding relative to project management were identified as the relationship of island width to breach formation; the amounts of sand lost during breaching, lowering, or narrowing of the berm; the potential for minor breaches to self-heal versus developing into a major breach; and the relationship between upstream nourishment and resiliency of the berm to storms. This application is a prototype for using structured decision-making in support of engineering projects in dynamic environments where mid-construction decisions may arise; highlights uncertainty about barrier island physical processes that limit the ability to make robust decisions; and demonstrates the potential for direct incorporation of process-based models in a formal adaptive management decision framework.

Entropy-functional-based online adaptive decision fusion framework with application to wildfire detection in video.

PubMed

Gunay, Osman; Toreyin, Behçet Ugur; Kose, Kivanc; Cetin, A Enis

2012-05-01

In this paper, an entropy-functional-based online adaptive decision fusion (EADF) framework is developed for image analysis and computer vision applications. In this framework, it is assumed that the compound algorithm consists of several subalgorithms, each of which yields its own decision as a real number centered around zero, representing the confidence level of that particular subalgorithm. Decision values are linearly combined with weights that are updated online according to an active fusion method based on performing entropic projections onto convex sets describing subalgorithms. It is assumed that there is an oracle, who is usually a human operator, providing feedback to the decision fusion method. A video-based wildfire detection system was developed to evaluate the performance of the decision fusion algorithm. In this case, image data arrive sequentially, and the oracle is the security guard of the forest lookout tower, verifying the decision of the combined algorithm. The simulation results are presented.

Command Decision-Making: Experience Counts

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-03-18

USAWC STRATEGY RESEARCH PROJECT COMMAND DECISION - MAKING : EXPERIENCE COUNTS by Lieutenant Colonel Kelly A. Wolgast United States Army Colonel Charles...1. REPORT DATE 18 MAR 2005 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED - 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Command Decision Making Experience Counts 5a. CONTRACT...Colonel Kelly A. Wolgast TITLE: Command Decision - making : Experience Counts FORMAT: Strategy Research Project DATE: 18 March 2005 PAGES: 30 CLASSIFICATION

Implications of the Bangor Hydro decision on FERC relicensings

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pizzi, L.

1997-01-01

In the next 15 years, over 400 existing nonfederal dams will require new licenses by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in order to continue operations. In many cases, state or federal agencies have a unique opportunity to condition the hydropower licenses to protect environmental values. In 1996, the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit issued an opinion striking down a mandatory license condition imposed by the U.S. Department of the Interior in a FERC relicensing. The case, Bangor Hydro-Electric Company v.Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, is instructive for agencies regarding the procedures to be followed in imposing mandatory FERC licensing conditions in the future. After Bangor Hydro, agencies should: (1) support their decisions by substantial evidence in the FERC record, (2) request applicant studies to support agency decisions and allow public comment on the decisions as a means to test the facts and analysis, and (3) consider intervening in a case to defend the condition on appeal. Bangor Hydro also raises, but does not decide, the issue of whether the agency imposing the mandatory condition should engage in balancing the economics of the hydropower project with the public resources affected by the project.

SSHAC Level 1 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for the Idaho National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Payne, Suzette; Coppersmith, Ryan; Coppersmith, Kevin

A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) was completed for the Materials and Fuels Complex (MFC), Naval Reactors Facility (NRF), and the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) (Figure 1-1). The PSHA followed the approaches and procedures appropriate for a Study Level 1 provided in the guidance advanced by the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) in U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) NUREG/CR-6372 and NUREG-2117 (NRC, 1997; 2012a). The SSHAC Level 1 PSHAs for MFC and ATR were conducted as part of the Seismic Risk Assessment (SRA) project (INL Project number 31287) to develop and apply a new-riskmore » informed methodology, respectively. The SSHAC Level 1 PSHA was conducted for NRF to provide guidance on the potential use of a design margin above rock hazard levels. The SRA project is developing a new risk-informed methodology that will provide a systematic approach for evaluating the need for an update of an existing PSHA. The new methodology proposes criteria to be employed at specific analysis, decision, or comparison points in its evaluation process. The first four of seven criteria address changes in inputs and results of the PSHA and are given in U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Standard, DOE-STD-1020-2012 (DOE, 2012a) and American National Standards Institute/American Nuclear Society (ANSI/ANS) 2.29 (ANS, 2008a). The last three criteria address evaluation of quantitative hazard and risk-focused information of an existing nuclear facility. The seven criteria and decision points are applied to Seismic Design Category (SDC) 3, 4, and 5, which are defined in American Society of Civil Engineers/Structural Engineers Institute (ASCE/SEI) 43-05 (ASCE, 2005). The application of the criteria and decision points could lead to an update or could determine that such update is not necessary.« less

Financial Energy Conservation Projects at Independent Colleges and Universities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrell, L. R.

1981-01-01

Factors affecting financial decisions for energy conservation projects at independent colleges and universities and methods that may be used when making a financial investment decision are examined, along with sources of funding for the projects. Projects that result in the conservation of energy resources might, in a time of extreme shortages,…

Application of expert systems in project management decision aiding

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, Regina; Shaffer, Steven; Stokes, James; Goldstein, David

1987-01-01

The feasibility of developing an expert systems-based project management decision aid to enhance the performance of NASA project managers was assessed. The research effort included extensive literature reviews in the areas of project management, project management decision aiding, expert systems technology, and human-computer interface engineering. Literature reviews were augmented by focused interviews with NASA managers. Time estimation for project scheduling was identified as the target activity for decision augmentation, and a design was developed for an Integrated NASA System for Intelligent Time Estimation (INSITE). The proposed INSITE design was judged feasible with a low level of risk. A partial proof-of-concept experiment was performed and was successful. Specific conclusions drawn from the research and analyses are included. The INSITE concept is potentially applicable in any management sphere, commercial or government, where time estimation is required for project scheduling. As project scheduling is a nearly universal management activity, the range of possibilities is considerable. The INSITE concept also holds potential for enhancing other management tasks, especially in areas such as cost estimation, where estimation-by-analogy is already a proven method.

Diffusion Modelling Reveals the Decision Making Processes Underlying Negative Judgement Bias in Rats

PubMed Central

Hales, Claire A.; Robinson, Emma S. J.; Houghton, Conor J.

2016-01-01

Human decision making is modified by emotional state. Rodents exhibit similar biases during interpretation of ambiguous cues that can be altered by affective state manipulations. In this study, the impact of negative affective state on judgement bias in rats was measured using an ambiguous-cue interpretation task. Acute treatment with an anxiogenic drug (FG7142), and chronic restraint stress and social isolation both induced a bias towards more negative interpretation of the ambiguous cue. The diffusion model was fit to behavioural data to allow further analysis of the underlying decision making processes. To uncover the way in which parameters vary together in relation to affective state manipulations, independent component analysis was conducted on rate of information accumulation and distances to decision threshold parameters for control data. Results from this analysis were applied to parameters from negative affective state manipulations. These projected components were compared to control components to reveal the changes in decision making processes that are due to affective state manipulations. Negative affective bias in rodents induced by either FG7142 or chronic stress is due to a combination of more negative interpretation of the ambiguous cue, reduced anticipation of the high reward and increased anticipation of the low reward. PMID:27023442

The Social Process of Analyzing Real Water Resource Systems Plans and Management Policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loucks, Daniel

2016-04-01

Developing and applying systems analysis methods for improving the development and management of real world water resource systems, I have learned, is primarily a social process. This talk is a call for more recognition of this reality in the modeling approaches we propose in the papers and books we publish. The mathematical models designed to inform planners and managers of water systems that we see in many of our journals often seem more complex than they need be. They also often seem not as connected to reality as they could be. While it may be easier to publish descriptions of complex models than simpler ones, and while adding complexity to models might make them better able to mimic or resemble the actual complexity of the real physical and/or social systems or processes being analyzed, the usefulness of such models often can be an illusion. Sometimes the important features of reality that are of concern or interest to those who make decisions can be adequately captured using relatively simple models. Finding the right balance for the particular issues being addressed or the particular decisions that need to be made is an art. When applied to real world problems or issues in specific basins or regions, systems modeling projects often involve more attention to the social aspects than the mathematical ones. Mathematical models addressing connected interacting interdependent components of complex water systems are in fact some of the most useful methods we have to study and better understand the systems we manage around us. They can help us identify and evaluate possible alternative solutions to problems facing humanity today. The study of real world systems of interacting components using mathematical models is commonly called applied systems analyses. Performing such analyses with decision makers rather than of decision makers is critical if the needed trust between project personnel and their clients is to be developed. Using examples from recent and ongoing modeling projects in different parts of the world, this talk will attempt to show the dependency on the degree of project success with the degree of attention given to the communication between project personnel, the stakeholders and decision making institutions. It will also highlight how initial project terms-of-reference and expected outcomes can change, sometimes in surprising ways, during the course of such projects. Changing project objectives often result from changing stakeholder values, emphasizing the need for analyses that can adapt to this uncertainty.

Project evaluation and selection using fuzzy Delphi method and zero - one goal programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alias, Suriana; Adna, Nofarziah; Arsad, Roslah; Soid, Siti Khuzaimah; Ali, Zaileha Md

2014-12-01

Project evaluation and selection is a factor affecting the impotence of board director in which is trying to maximize all the possible goals. Assessment of the problem occurred in organization plan is the first phase for decision making process. The company needs a group of expert to evaluate the problems. The Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM) is a systematic procedure to evoke the group's opinion in order to get the best result to evaluate the project performance. This paper proposes an evaluation and selection of the best alternative project based on combination of FDM and Zero - One Goal Programming (ZOGP) formulation. ZOGP is used to solve the multi-criteria decision making for final decision part by using optimization software LINDO 6.1. An empirical example on an ongoing decision making project in Johor, Malaysia is implemented for case study.

Merging Air Quality and Public Health Decision Support Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudspeth, W. B.; Bales, C. L.

2003-12-01

The New Mexico Air Quality Mapper (NMAQM) is a Web-based, open source GIS prototype application that Earth Data Analysis Center is developing under a NASA Cooperative Agreement. NMAQM enhances and extends existing data and imagery delivery systems with an existing Public Health system called the Rapid Syndrome Validation Project (RSVP). RSVP is a decision support system operating in several medical and public health arenas. It is evolving to ingest remote sensing data as input to provide early warning of human health threats, especially those related to anthropogenic atmospheric pollutants and airborne pathogens. The NMAQM project applies measurements of these atmospheric pollutants, derived from both remotely sensed data as well as from in-situ air quality networks, to both forecasting and retrospective analyses that influence human respiratory health. NMAQM provides a user-friendly interface for visualizing and interpreting environmentally-linked epidemiological phenomena. The results, and the systems made to provide the information, will be applicable not only to decision-makers in the public health realm, but also to air quality organizations, demographers, community planners, and other professionals in information technology, and social and engineering sciences. As an accessible and interactive mapping and analysis application, it allows environment and health personnel to study historic data for hypothesis generation and trend analysis, and then, potentially, to predict air quality conditions from daily data acquisitions. Additional spin off benefits to such users include the identification of gaps in the distribution of in-situ monitoring stations, the dissemination of air quality data to the public, and the discrimination of local vs. more regional sources of air pollutants that may bear on decisions relating to public health and public policy.

Risk Dimensions and Political Decisions Frame Environmental Communication: A Content Analysis of Seven U.S. Newspapers from 1970-2010

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grantham, Susan; Vieira, Edward T., Jr.

2014-01-01

This project examined the focus of environmental news frames used in seven American newspapers between 1970 and 2010. During this time newspapers were a primary source of news. Based on gatekeeping and agenda-setting theory, as well as source credibility, the content analysis of 2,123 articles examined the environmental topics within the articles,…

A multicriteria decision analysis model and risk assessment framework for carbon capture and storage.

PubMed

Humphries Choptiany, John Michael; Pelot, Ronald

2014-09-01

Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been applied to various energy problems to incorporate a variety of qualitative and quantitative criteria, usually spanning environmental, social, engineering, and economic fields. MCDA and associated methods such as life-cycle assessments and cost-benefit analysis can also include risk analysis to address uncertainties in criteria estimates. One technology now being assessed to help mitigate climate change is carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS is a new process that captures CO2 emissions from fossil-fueled power plants and injects them into geological reservoirs for storage. It presents a unique challenge to decisionmakers (DMs) due to its technical complexity, range of environmental, social, and economic impacts, variety of stakeholders, and long time spans. The authors have developed a risk assessment model using a MCDA approach for CCS decisions such as selecting between CO2 storage locations and choosing among different mitigation actions for reducing risks. The model includes uncertainty measures for several factors, utility curve representations of all variables, Monte Carlo simulation, and sensitivity analysis. This article uses a CCS scenario example to demonstrate the development and application of the model based on data derived from published articles and publicly available sources. The model allows high-level DMs to better understand project risks and the tradeoffs inherent in modern, complex energy decisions. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Evaluation of the effects of the North Carolina Improved Pregnancy Outcome Project: implications for state-level decision-making.

PubMed Central

Peoples, M D; Grimson, R C; Daughtry, G L

1984-01-01

This study was designed to assess the effects of the North Carolina Improved Pregnancy Outcome (IPO) Project on use of prenatal care and incidence of low birthweight among its primarily Black registrants . Weighted least squares and stratified analysis procedures were used to scrutinize vital statistics data for subpopulation effects. IPO services were received by 51.7 per cent of Black women in the counties served by the project. For all Black registrants , the risk of receiving less than adequate prenatal care was 55.1 per cent of that of the comparison group. For Black teenage registrants , the risk was even less: 37.2 per cent of that of the comparison group. Nevertheless, no corresponding effects on the incidence of low birthweight could be detected. The evaluation methods used in this study can be applied to programs for mothers and infants in other locales to generate useful and practical information for state-level decision-making. PMID:6721010

NASA'S SERVIR Gulf of Mexico Project: The Gulf of Mexico Regional Collaborative (GoMRC)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.; Irwin, Daniel; Presson, Joan; Estes, Maury; Estes, Sue; Judd, Kathleen

2006-01-01

The Gulf of Mexico Regional Collaborative (GoMRC) is a NASA-funded project that has as its goal to develop an integrated, working, prototype IT infrastructure for Earth science data, knowledge and models for the five Gulf U.S. states and Mexico, and to demonstrate its ability to help decision-makers better understand critical Gulf-scale issues. Within this preview, the mission of this project is to provide cross cutting solution network and rapid prototyping capability for the Gulf of Mexico region, in order to demonstrate substantial, collaborative, multi-agency research and transitional capabilities using unique NASA data sets and models to address regional problems. SERVIR Mesoamerica is seen as an excellent existing framework that can be used to integrate observational and GIs data bases, provide a sensor web interface, visualization and interactive analysis tools, archival functions, data dissemination and product generation within a Rapid Prototyping concept to assist decision-makers in better understanding Gulf-scale environmental issues.

The influence of science funding agencies in support of effective decision-maker scientist partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnott, J. C.; Lemos, M. C.

2017-12-01

A wealth of evidence supports the idea that collaboration between scientists and decision-makers is an influential factor in generating actionable knowledge. Nevertheless, persistent obstacles across the research-policy-practice interface limit the amount of engagement that may be necessary to satisfy demands for information to support decisions. Funding agencies have been identified as one possible driver of change, but few multi-year studies have been conducted to trace the influence of program designs on research practices or other outcomes. To fill this gap, we examine a body of applied science projects (n=120) funded through NOAA's National Estuarine Research Reserve System from 1998-2014. Periodic innovation in the structure of this funding program, including requirements for end user engagement and the inclusion of collaboration specialists, offers a natural experiment from which to test hypotheses about the how funding program design influences research practice, utilization, and broader impacts. Using content analysis of project reports and interviews of project team members, end users, and program managers (n=40), we produce a data that can be analyzed through both statistical and qualitative methods. We find that funder mandates significantly influence the intensity of interaction between researchers and practitioners as well as affect long-term change in research cultures. When interaction intensifies, corresponding gains appear in the readiness of research to support decision-making and the readiness of user groups to incorporate findings into their work. While collaborative methods transform research practice and positively influence the applied contexts in which partnerships occur, it remains less clear whether this actually increases the direct use of scientific to inform decisions. For example, collaboration may lead to outcomes other than new knowledge or knowledge application, yielding many positive outcomes that are distinct from knowledge use itself. We find that improved and more flexible evaluation approaches at the project level and more nuanced, supported and guided by program sponsors, are needed.

78 FR 57173 - Notice of Availability of the Record of Decision for the Mohave County Wind Farm Project, Mohave...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-17

... generated by the Project. The approved Project includes up to 243 wind turbine generators and associated..., operation, maintenance, and decommissioning of the Project to BP Wind Energy; and for the BLM to issue a ROW...; AZA32315AA] Notice of Availability of the Record of Decision for the Mohave County Wind Farm Project, Mohave...

Association of market, organizational and financial factors with the number, and types of capital expenditures.

PubMed

McCue, Michael J

2011-01-01

Prior literature provides only a descriptive view of the types and numbers of capital expenditures made by hospitals. This study conducted an empirical analysis to assess simultaneously what market, organizational, and financial factors relate to the number of capital projects as well as the specific types: medical equipment, expansion, and maintenance projects. Sampling California hospital capital expenditure data from 2002 to 2007, this study aggregated the number of capital projects by each type of capital investment decision: medical equipment, expansion, and maintenance/renovation per hospital. Using ordinary least squares regression, this study evaluated the association of these factors with these types of capital investment projects. This study found that hospitals capturing a greater share of the market, maintaining high levels of liquidity, and operating with more than 350 beds invested in a greater number of capital projects per hospital as well as medical equipment and expansionary projects per hospital. Within the state of California, the demand for health care services within a hospital market as well as cash and investment reserves were key drivers in the hospital CEOs and boards' decision to increase their capital purchases. The types of purchases included capital outlays related to medical equipment, such as CT scanners, MRIs, and surgical systems, and revenue-generating expansionary projects, such as new bed towers, hospitals wings, operating and emergency rooms, and replacement hospitals from 2002 to 2007.

Lessons from community-based payment for ecosystem service schemes: from forests to rangelands.

PubMed

Dougill, Andrew J; Stringer, Lindsay C; Leventon, Julia; Riddell, Mike; Rueff, Henri; Spracklen, Dominick V; Butt, Edward

2012-11-19

Climate finance investments and international policy are driving new community-based projects incorporating payments for ecosystem services (PES) to simultaneously store carbon and generate livelihood benefits. Most community-based PES (CB-PES) research focuses on forest areas. Rangelands, which store globally significant quantities of carbon and support many of the world's poor, have seen little CB-PES research attention, despite benefitting from several decades of community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) projects. Lessons from CBNRM suggest institutional considerations are vital in underpinning the design and implementation of successful community projects. This study uses documentary analysis to explore the institutional characteristics of three African community-based forest projects that seek to deliver carbon-storage and poverty-reduction benefits. Strong existing local institutions, clear land tenure, community control over land management decision-making and up-front, flexible payment schemes are found to be vital. Additionally, we undertake a global review of rangeland CBNRM literature and identify that alongside the lessons learned from forest projects, rangeland CB-PES project design requires specific consideration of project boundaries, benefit distribution, capacity building for community monitoring of carbon storage together with awareness-raising using decision-support tools to display the benefits of carbon-friendly land management. We highlight that institutional analyses must be undertaken alongside improved scientific studies of the carbon cycle to enable links to payment schemes, and for them to contribute to poverty alleviation in rangelands.

Lessons from community-based payment for ecosystem service schemes: from forests to rangelands

PubMed Central

Dougill, Andrew J.; Stringer, Lindsay C.; Leventon, Julia; Riddell, Mike; Rueff, Henri; Spracklen, Dominick V.; Butt, Edward

2012-01-01

Climate finance investments and international policy are driving new community-based projects incorporating payments for ecosystem services (PES) to simultaneously store carbon and generate livelihood benefits. Most community-based PES (CB-PES) research focuses on forest areas. Rangelands, which store globally significant quantities of carbon and support many of the world's poor, have seen little CB-PES research attention, despite benefitting from several decades of community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) projects. Lessons from CBNRM suggest institutional considerations are vital in underpinning the design and implementation of successful community projects. This study uses documentary analysis to explore the institutional characteristics of three African community-based forest projects that seek to deliver carbon-storage and poverty-reduction benefits. Strong existing local institutions, clear land tenure, community control over land management decision-making and up-front, flexible payment schemes are found to be vital. Additionally, we undertake a global review of rangeland CBNRM literature and identify that alongside the lessons learned from forest projects, rangeland CB-PES project design requires specific consideration of project boundaries, benefit distribution, capacity building for community monitoring of carbon storage together with awareness-raising using decision-support tools to display the benefits of carbon-friendly land management. We highlight that institutional analyses must be undertaken alongside improved scientific studies of the carbon cycle to enable links to payment schemes, and for them to contribute to poverty alleviation in rangelands. PMID:23045714

Conflict translates environmental and social risk into business costs

PubMed Central

Franks, Daniel M.; Davis, Rachel; Bebbington, Anthony J.; Ali, Saleem H.; Kemp, Deanna; Scurrah, Martin

2014-01-01

Sustainability science has grown as a field of inquiry, but has said little about the role of large-scale private sector actors in socio-ecological systems change. However, the shaping of global trends and transitions depends greatly on the private sector and its development impact. Market-based and command-and-control policy instruments have, along with corporate citizenship, been the predominant means for bringing sustainable development priorities into private sector decision-making. This research identifies conflict as a further means through which environmental and social risks are translated into business costs and decision making. Through in-depth interviews with finance, legal, and sustainability professionals in the extractive industries, and empirical case analysis of 50 projects worldwide, this research reports on the financial value at stake when conflict erupts with local communities. Over the past decade, high commodity prices have fueled the expansion of mining and hydrocarbon extraction. These developments profoundly transform environments, communities, and economies, and frequently generate social conflict. Our analysis shows that mining and hydrocarbon companies fail to factor in the full scale of the costs of conflict. For example, as a result of conflict, a major, world-class mining project with capital expenditure of between US$3 and US$5 billion was reported to suffer roughly US$20 million per week of delayed production in net present value terms. Clear analysis of the costs of conflict provides sustainability professionals with a strengthened basis to influence corporate decision making, particularly when linked to corporate values. Perverse outcomes of overemphasizing a cost analysis are also discussed. PMID:24821758

Conflict translates environmental and social risk into business costs.

PubMed

Franks, Daniel M; Davis, Rachel; Bebbington, Anthony J; Ali, Saleem H; Kemp, Deanna; Scurrah, Martin

2014-05-27

Sustainability science has grown as a field of inquiry, but has said little about the role of large-scale private sector actors in socio-ecological systems change. However, the shaping of global trends and transitions depends greatly on the private sector and its development impact. Market-based and command-and-control policy instruments have, along with corporate citizenship, been the predominant means for bringing sustainable development priorities into private sector decision-making. This research identifies conflict as a further means through which environmental and social risks are translated into business costs and decision making. Through in-depth interviews with finance, legal, and sustainability professionals in the extractive industries, and empirical case analysis of 50 projects worldwide, this research reports on the financial value at stake when conflict erupts with local communities. Over the past decade, high commodity prices have fueled the expansion of mining and hydrocarbon extraction. These developments profoundly transform environments, communities, and economies, and frequently generate social conflict. Our analysis shows that mining and hydrocarbon companies fail to factor in the full scale of the costs of conflict. For example, as a result of conflict, a major, world-class mining project with capital expenditure of between US$3 and US$5 billion was reported to suffer roughly US$20 million per week of delayed production in net present value terms. Clear analysis of the costs of conflict provides sustainability professionals with a strengthened basis to influence corporate decision making, particularly when linked to corporate values. Perverse outcomes of overemphasizing a cost analysis are also discussed.

The Development and Validation of a Special Education Intelligent Administration Support Program. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Utah State Univ., Logan. Center for Persons with Disabilities.

This project studied the effects of implementing a computerized management information system developed for special education administrators. The Intelligent Administration Support Program (IASP), an expert system and database program, assisted in information acquisition and analysis pertaining to the district's quality of decisions and procedures…

Planning for Success: Integrating Analysis with Decision Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goho, James; Webb, Ken

2003-01-01

Describes a successful strategic planning process at a large community college, which linked the analytic inputs of research with the authority and intuition of leaders. Reports key factors attributed to the process' success, including a collegial and organized structure, detailed project management plans, and confidence in the environmental scan.…

Integrity of Practice in Lecturers' Accounts of Teaching Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Young, Pat; Irving, Zoe

2005-01-01

This article draws on data collected during a funded research project on undergraduate teaching within a single discipline, social policy. Starting from observations drawn from analysis of the interview transcripts, the article develops the concept of "integrity of practice" from the literature on reflective practice and the scholarship of…

Options for Organizing the Tanker Airlift Control Center Flight Dispatch Function: An Exploratory Concept Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2000-06-01

it poised to fall? Am I prepared to pay the applicable capital gains tax ? Each of these questions could represent a decision frame. The...Center (FEDSIM). AMC Corporate Systems Analysis, Design , and Implementation PEP 18 TACC Project. Falls Chruch , VA: Federal Systems Integration and

Functional Measurement Analysis of Brand Equity: Does Brand Name Affect Perceptions of Quality?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hilgenkamp, Heather; Shanteau, James

2010-01-01

This research project used Functional Measurement to examine how the brand name of consumer products impacts intended purchasing decisions. Thirty undergraduate students tested actual products from three different product categories (crayons, tissues, and tortilla chips). Each product category consisted of three different brands; one with high…

Evaluating the accuracy of VEMAP daily weather data for application in crop simulations on a regional scale

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Weather plays a critical role in eco-environmental and agricultural systems. Limited availability of meteorological records often constrains the applications of simulation models and related decision support tools. The Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) provides daily weather...

Effectiveness Information and Institutional Change: An Exploratory Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ewell, Peter T.

Factors that affect the implementation of information-based improvements in college instruction and decision-making are considered, based on a conceptual scheme for comparing information-based change efforts. Based on a student outcomes project, eight brief case studies of public colleges illustrate different patterns leading to successful use of…

Alabama Vocational Management Information System. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patterson, Douglas; And Others

A project was developed to design and implement a management information system (MIS) to provide decision makers with accurate, usable, and timely data and information concerning input, output, and impact of vocational education. The objectives were to (1) design an MIS embracing student accounting, fiscal accounting, manpower analysis, and…

USING ECONOMIC ANALYSIS TO VALUE WATER REMEDIATION: AN APPLICATION TO THE CHEAT RIVER WATERSHED IN WEST VIRGINIA

EPA Science Inventory

Inherent in any decision to allocate resources is the constraint imposed by a limited budget. In small communities, particularly in rural areas, this often means stark tradeoffs among major public projects (schools, roads, water treatment). When dealing with management options ...

The Limits of Empowerment in Anti-Nuclear Advocacy: A Case Study of Adult Education for Technological Literacy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Regnier, Robert; Penna, Phillip

1996-01-01

Using a theory of technological literacy, analysis of a project to oppose uranium mining in Saskatchewan revealed how the potential for empowerment is often overstated. Informing citizens to participate in critical discourse does not always lead to decisions reflecting their interests. (SK)

A practical guide to value of information analysis.

PubMed

Wilson, Edward C F

2015-02-01

Value of information analysis is a quantitative method to estimate the return on investment in proposed research projects. It can be used in a number of ways. Funders of research may find it useful to rank projects in terms of the expected return on investment from a variety of competing projects. Alternatively, trialists can use the principles to identify the efficient sample size of a proposed study as an alternative to traditional power calculations, and finally, a value of information analysis can be conducted alongside an economic evaluation as a quantitative adjunct to the 'future research' or 'next steps' section of a study write up. The purpose of this paper is to present a brief introduction to the methods, a step-by-step guide to calculation and a discussion of issues that arise in their application to healthcare decision making. Worked examples are provided in the accompanying online appendices as Microsoft Excel spreadsheets.

Uncertainty in benefit cost analysis of smart grid demonstration-projects in the U.S., China, and Italy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karali, Nihan; Flego, Gianluca; Yu, Jiancheng

Given the substantial investments required, there has been keen interest in conducting benefits analysis, i.e., quantifying, and often monetizing, the performance of smart grid technologies. In this study, we compare two different approaches; (1) Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)’s benefits analysis method and its adaptation to the European contexts by the European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), and (2) the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and fuzzy logic decision making method. These are applied to three case demonstration projects executed in three different countries; the U.S., China, and Italy, considering uncertainty in each case. This work is conducted under the U.S.more » (United States)-China Climate Change Working Group, smart grid, with an additional major contribution by the European Commission. The following is a brief description of the three demonstration projects.« less

Development of a decision support system for monitoring, reporting and forecasting ecological conditions of the Appalachian Trail

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wang, Yeqiao; Nemani, Ramakrishna; Dieffenbach, Fred; Stolte, Kenneth; Holcomb, Glenn B.; Robinson, Matt; Reese, Casey C.; McNiff, Marcia; Duhaime, Roland; Tierney, Geri; Mitchell, Brian; August, Peter; Paton, Peter; LaBash, Charles

2010-01-01

This paper introduces a collaborative multi-agency effort to develop an Appalachian Trail (A.T.) MEGA-Transect Decision Support System (DSS) for monitoring, reporting and forecasting ecological conditions of the A.T. and the surrounding lands. The project is to improve decisionmaking on management of the A.T. by providing a coherent framework for data integration, status reporting and trend analysis. The A.T. MEGA-Transect DSS is to integrate NASA multi-platform sensor data and modeling through the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) and in situ measurements from A.T. MEGA-Transect partners to address identified natural resource priorities and improve resource management decisions.

Integrative evaluation for sustainable decisions of urban wastewater system management under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadjimichael, A.; Corominas, L.; Comas, J.

2017-12-01

With sustainable development as their overarching goal, urban wastewater system (UWS) managers need to take into account multiple social, economic, technical and environmental facets related to their decisions. In this complex decision-making environment, uncertainty can be formidable. It is present both in the ways the system is interpreted stochastically, but also in its natural ever-shifting behavior. This inherent uncertainty suggests that wiser decisions would be made under an adaptive and iterative decision-making regime. No decision-support framework has been presented in the literature to effectively addresses all these needs. The objective of this work is to describe such a conceptual framework to evaluate and compare alternative solutions for various UWS challenges within an adaptive management structure. Socio-economic aspects such as externalities are taken into account, along with other traditional criteria as necessary. Robustness, reliability and resilience analyses test the performance of the system against present and future variability. A valuation uncertainty analysis incorporates uncertain valuation assumptions in the decision-making process. The framework is demonstrated with an application to a case study presenting a typical problem often faced by managers: poor river water quality, increasing population, and more stringent water quality legislation. The application of the framework made use of: i) a cost-benefit analysis including monetized environmental benefits and damages; ii) a robustness analysis of system performance against future conditions; iii) reliability and resilience analyses of the system given contextual variability; and iv) a valuation uncertainty analysis of model parameters. The results suggest that the installation of bigger volumes would give rise to increased benefits despite larger capital costs, as well as increased robustness and resilience. Population numbers appear to affect the estimated benefits most, followed by electricity prices and climate change projections. The presented framework is expected to be a valuable tool for the next generation of UWS decision-making and the application demonstrates a novel and valuable integration of metrics and methods for UWS analysis.

The Native Comic Book Project: native youth making comics and healthy decisions.

PubMed

Montgomery, Michelle; Manuelito, Brenda; Nass, Carrie; Chock, Tami; Buchwald, Dedra

2012-04-01

American Indians and Alaska Natives have traditionally used stories and drawings to positively influence the well-being of their communities. The objective of this study was to describe the development of a curriculum that trains Native youth leaders to plan, write, and design original comic books to enhance healthy decision making. Project staff developed the Native Comic Book Project by adapting Dr. Michael Bitz's Comic Book Project to incorporate Native comic book art, Native storytelling, and decision-making skills. After conducting five train-the-trainer sessions for Native youth, staff were invited by youth participants to implement the full curriculum as a pilot test at one tribal community site in the Pacific Northwest. Implementation was accompanied by surveys and weekly participant observations and was followed by an interactive meeting to assess youth engagement, determine project acceptability, and solicit suggestions for curriculum changes. Six youths aged 12 to 15 (average age = 14) participated in the Native Comic Book Project. Youth participants stated that they liked the project and gained knowledge of the harmful effects of commercial tobacco use but wanted better integration of comic book creation, decision making, and Native storytelling themes. Previous health-related comic book projects did not recruit youth as active producers of content. This curriculum shows promise as a culturally appropriate intervention to help Native youth adopt healthy decision-making skills and healthy behaviors by creating their own comic books.

Project analysis and integration economic analyses summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Macomber, H. L.

1986-01-01

An economic-analysis summary was presented for the manufacture of crystalline-silicon modules involving silicon ingot/sheet, growth, slicing, cell manufacture, and module assembly. Economic analyses provided: useful quantitative aspects for complex decision-making to the Flat-plate Solar Array (FSA) Project; yardsticks for design and performance to industry; and demonstration of how to evaluate and understand the worth of research and development both to JPL and other government agencies and programs. It was concluded that future research and development funds for photovoltaics must be provided by the Federal Government because the solar industry today does not reap enough profits from its present-day sales of photovoltaic equipment.

A multimedia electronic patient record (ePR) system to improve decision support in pre- and rehabilitation through clinical and movement analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Brent; Documet, Jorge; McNitt-Gray, Sarah; Requejo, Phil; McNitt-Gray, Jill

2011-03-01

Clinical decisions for improving motor function in patients both with disability as well as improving an athlete's performance are made through clinical and movement analysis. Currently, this analysis facilitates identifying abnormalities in a patient's motor function for a large amount of neuro-musculoskeletal pathologies. However definitively identifying the underlying cause or long-term consequences of a specific abnormality in the patient's movement pattern is difficult since this requires information from multiple sources and formats across different times and currently relies on the experience and intuition of the expert clinician. In addition, this data must be persistent for longitudinal outcomes studies. Therefore a multimedia ePR system integrating imaging informatics data could have a significant impact on decision support within this clinical workflow. We present the design and architecture of such an ePR system as well as the data types that need integration in order to develop relevant decision support tools. Specifically, we will present two data model examples: 1) A performance improvement project involving volleyball athletes and 2) Wheelchair propulsion evaluation of patients with disabilities. The end result is a new frontier area of imaging informatics research within rehabilitation engineering and biomechanics.

Data Sparsity Considerations in Climate Impact Analysis for the Water Sector (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asante, K. O.; Khimsara, P.; Chan, A.

2013-12-01

Scientists and planners are helping governments and communities around the world to prepare for climate change by performing local impact studies and developing adaptation plans. Most studies begin by analyzing global climate models outputs to estimate the magnitude of projected change, assessing vulnerabilities and proposing adaptation measures. In these studies, climate projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Data Distribution Centre (DDC) are either used directly or downscaled using regional models. Since climate projections cover the entire global, climate change analysis can be performed for any location. However, selection of climate projections for use in historically data sparse regions presents special challenges. Key questions arise about the impact of historical data sparsity on quality of climate projections, spatial consistency of results and suitability for applications such as water resource planning. In this paper, a water-sector climate study conducted in a data-rich setting in California is compared to a similar study conducted a data-sparse setting in Mozambique. The challenges of selecting projections, performing analysis and interpreting the results for climate adaption planning are compared to illustrate the decision process and challenges encountered in these two very different settings.

Texas Urban Triangle : pilot study to implement a spatial decision support system (SDSS) for sustainable mobility.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-03-01

This project addressed sustainable transportation in the Texas Urban Triangle (TUT) by conducting a pilot : project at the county scale. The project tested and developed the multi-attribute Spatial Decision Support : System (SDSS) developed in 2009 u...

THE NGA-DOE GRANT TO EXAMINE CRITICAL ISSUES RELATED TO RADIOACTIVE WASTE AND MATERIALS DISPOSITION INVOLVING DOE FACILITIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1998-04-01

Through the National Governors' Association (NGA) project ''Critical Issues Related to Radioactive Waste and Materials Disposition Involving DOE Facilities'' NGA brings together Governors' policy advisors, state regulators, and DOE officials to examine critical issues related to the cleanup and operation of DOE nuclear weapons and research facilities. Topics explored through this project include: Decisions involving disposal of mixed, low-level, and transuranic (TRU) waste and disposition of nuclear materials. Decisions involving DOE budget requests and their effect on environmental cleanup and compliance at DOE facilities. Strategies to treat mixed, low-level, and transuranic (TRU) waste and their effect on individual sites inmore » the complex. Changes to the FFCA site treatment plans as a result of proposals in DOE's Accelerating Cleanup: Paths to Closure strategy and contractor integration analysis. Interstate waste and materials shipments. Reforms to existing RCRA and CERCLA regulations/guidance to address regulatory overlap and risks posed by DOE wastes. The overarching theme of this project is to help the Department improve coordination of its major program decisions with Governors' offices and state regulators and to ensure such decisions reflect input from these key state officials and stakeholders. This report summarizes activities conducted during the quarter from December 31, 1997 through April 30, 1998 under the NGA project. The work accomplished by the NGA project team during the past four months can be categorized as follows: maintained open communication with DOE on a variety of activities and issues within the DOE environmental management complex; and provided ongoing support to state-DOE interactions in preparation for the March 30-31, 1998 NGA Federal Facilities Compliance Task Force Meeting with DOE. maintained communication with NGA Federal Facilities Compliance Task Force members regarding DOE efforts to formulate a configuration for mixed low-level waste and low-level treatment and disposal, DOE's Environmental Management Budget, and DOE's proposed Intersite Discussions.« less

THE NGA-DOE GRANT TO EXAMINE CRITICAL ISSUES RELATED TO RADIOACTIVE WASTE AND MATERIALS DISPOSITION INVOLVING DOE FACILITIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1998-07-01

Through the National Governors' Association (NGA) project ''Critical Issues Related to Radioactive Waste and Materials Disposition Involving DOE Facilities'' NGA brings together Governors' policy advisors, state regulators, and DOE officials to examine critical issues related to the cleanup and operation of DOE nuclear weapons and research facilities. Topics explored through this project include: Decisions involving disposal of mixed, low-level, and transuranic (TRU) waste and disposition of nuclear materials. Decisions involving DOE budget requests and their effect on environmental cleanup and compliance at DOE facilities. Strategies to treat mixed, low-level, and transuranic (TRU) waste and their effect on individual sites inmore » the complex. Changes to the FFCA site treatment plans as a result of proposals in DOE's Accelerating Cleanup: Paths to Closure strategy and contractor integration analysis. Interstate waste and materials shipments. Reforms to existing RCRA and CERCLA regulations/guidance to address regulatory overlap and risks posed by DOE wastes. The overarching theme of this project is to help the Department improve coordination of its major program decisions with Governors' offices and state regulators and to ensure such decisions reflect input from these key state officials and stakeholders. This report summarizes activities conducted during the quarter from April 30, 1998 through June 30, 1998 under the NGA project. The work accomplished by the NGA project team during the past four months can be categorized as follows: maintained open communication with DOE on a variety of activities and issues within the DOE environmental management complex; and provided ongoing support to state-DOE interactions. maintained communication with NGA Federal Facilities Compliance Task Force members regarding DOE efforts to formulate a configuration for mixed low-level waste and low-level treatment and disposal, DOE's Environmental Management Budget, and DOE's proposed Intersite Discussions.« less

Building Capacity to Use Earth Observations in Decision Making: A Case Study of NASA's DEVELOP National Program Methods and Best Practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Childs-Gleason, L. M.; Ross, K. W.; Crepps, G.; Miller, T. N.; Favors, J. E.; Rogers, L.; Allsbrook, K. N.; Bender, M. R.; Ruiz, M. L.

2015-12-01

NASA's DEVELOP National Program fosters an immersive research environment for dual capacity building. Through rapid feasibility Earth science projects, the future workforce and current decision makers are engaged in research projects to build skills and capabilities to use Earth observation in environmental management and policy making. DEVELOP conducts over 80 projects annually, successfully building skills through partnerships with over 150 organizations and providing over 350 opportunities for project participants each year. Filling a void between short-term training courses and long-term research projects, the DEVELOP model has been successful in supporting state, local, federal and international government organizations to adopt methodologies and enhance decision making processes. This presentation will highlight programmatic best practices, feedback from participants and partner organizations, and three sample case studies of successful adoption of methods in the decision making process.

DOE Hydrogen Program: 2006 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milliken, J.

This report summarizes comments from the Peer Review Panel at the FY 2006 DOE Hydrogen Program Annual Merit Review, held on May 16-19, 2006, in Arlington, Virginia. The projects evaluated support the Department of Energy and President Bush's Hydrogen Initiative. The results of this merit review and peer evaluation are major inputs used by DOE to make funding decisions. Project areas include hydrogen production and delivery; hydrogen storage; fuel cells; technology validation; safety, codes and standards; education; and systems analysis.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nichols, Will E.; Mehta, Sunil

The updated Hanford Site Composite Analysis will provide an all-pathways dose projection to a hypothetical future member of the public from all planned low-level radioactive waste disposal facilities and potential contributions from all other projected end-state sources of radioactive material left at Hanford following site closure. Its primary purpose is to support the decision-making process of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under DOE O 435.1-1, Radioactive Waste Management (DOE, 2001), related to managing low-level waste disposal facilities at the Hanford Site.

DOE Hydrogen Program: 2005 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chalk, S. G.

This report summarizes comments from the Peer Review Panel at the FY 2005 DOE Hydrogen Program Annual Merit Review, held on May 23-26, 2005, in Arlington, Virginia. The projects evaluated support the Department of Energy and President Bush's Hydrogen Initiative. The results of this merit review and peer evaluation are major inputs used by DOE to make funding decisions. Project areas include hydrogen production and delivery; hydrogen storage; fuel cells; technology validation; safety, codes and standards; education; and systems analysis.

DOE Hydrogen Program: 2007 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Milliken, J.

This report summarizes comments from the Peer Review Panel at the FY 2007 DOE Hydrogen Program Annual Merit Review, held on May 14-18, 2007, in Washington, D.C. The projects evaluated support the Department of Energy and President Bush's Hydrogen Initiative. The results of this merit review and peer evaluation are major inputs used by DOE to make funding decisions. Project areas include hydrogen production and delivery; hydrogen storage; fuel cells; technology validation; safety, codes and standards; education; and systems analysis.

Climate Change Adaptation Decision Making for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From Palcacocha Lake in Peru

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuellar, A. D.; McKinney, D. C.

2014-12-01

Climate change has accelerated glacial retreat in high altitude glaciated regions of Peru leading to the growth and formation of glacier lakes. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) are sudden events triggered by an earthquake, avalanche into the lake or other shock that causes a sudden outflow of water. These floods are catastrophic because of their sudden onset, the difficulty predicting them, and enormous quantity of water and debris rapidly flooding downstream areas. Palcacocha Lake in the Peruvian Andes has experienced accelerated growth since it burst in 1941 and threatens the major city of Huaraz and surrounding communities. Since the 1941 flood stakeholders have advocated for projects to adapt to the increasing threat posed by Palcacocha Lake. Nonetheless, discussions surrounding projects for Palcacocha have not included a rigorous analysis of the potential consequences of a flood, probability of an event, or costs of mitigation projects. This work presents the first step to rationally analyze the risks posed by Palcacocha Lake and the various adaptation projects proposed. In this work the authors use decision analysis to asses proposed adaptation measures that would mitigate damage in downstream communities from a GLOF. We use an existing hydrodynamic model of the at-risk area to determine how adaptation projects will affect downstream flooding. Flood characteristics are used in the HEC-FIA software to estimate fatalities and injuries from an outburst flood, which we convert to monetary units using the value of a statistical life. We combine the monetary consequences of a GLOF with the cost of the proposed projects and a diffuse probability distribution for the likelihood of an event to estimate the expected cost of the adaptation plans. From this analysis we found that lowering the lake level by 15 meters has the least expected cost of any proposal despite uncertainty in the effect of lake lowering on flooding downstream.

Comparing and using assessments of the value of information to clinical decision-making.

PubMed Central

Urquhart, C J; Hepworth, J B

1996-01-01

This paper discusses the Value project, which assessed the value to clinical decision-making of information supplied by National Health Service (NHS) library and information services. The project not only showed how health libraries in the United Kingdom help clinicians in decision-making but also provided quality assurance guidelines for these libraries to help make their information services more effective. The paper reviews methods and results used in previous studies of the value of health libraries, noting that methodological differences appear to affect the results. The paper also discusses aspects of user involvement, categories of clinical decision-making, the value of information to present and future clinical decisions, and the combination of quantitative and qualitative assessments of value, as applied to the Value project and the studies reviewed. The Value project also demonstrated that the value placed on information depends in part on the career stage of the physician. The paper outlines the structure of the quality assurance tool kit, which is based on the findings and methods used in the Value project. PMID:8913550

The relationships among three factors affecting the financial decision-making abilities of adults with mild intellectual disabilities.

PubMed

Suto, W M I; Clare, I C H; Holland, A J; Watson, P C

2005-03-01

Among adults with intellectual disabilities (IDs), there is a need not only to assess financial decision-making capacity, but also to understand how it can be maximized. Although increased financial independence is a goal for many people, it is essential that individuals' decision-making abilities are sufficient, and many factors may affect the development of such abilities. As part of a wider project on financial decision-making, we analysed previous data from a group of 30 adults with mild IDs, identifying correlations among four variables: (i) financial decision-making abilities; (ii) intellectual ability; (iii) understanding of some basic concepts relevant to finance; and (iv) decision-making opportunities in everyday life. The analysis indicated a direct relationship between ID and basic financial understanding. Strong relationships of a potentially reciprocal nature were identified between basic financial understanding and everyday decision-making opportunities, and between such opportunities and financial decision-making abilities. The findings suggest that the role of intellectual ability in determining financial decision-making abilities is only indirect, and that access to both basic skills education and everyday decision-making opportunities is crucial for maximizing capacity. The implications of this are discussed.

E-DECIDER Decision Support Gateway For Earthquake Disaster Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glasscoe, M. T.; Stough, T. M.; Parker, J. W.; Burl, M. C.; Donnellan, A.; Blom, R. G.; Pierce, M. E.; Wang, J.; Ma, Y.; Rundle, J. B.; Yoder, M. R.

2013-12-01

Earthquake Data Enhanced Cyber-Infrastructure for Disaster Evaluation and Response (E-DECIDER) is a NASA-funded project developing capabilities for decision-making utilizing remote sensing data and modeling software in order to provide decision support for earthquake disaster management and response. E-DECIDER incorporates earthquake forecasting methodology and geophysical modeling tools developed through NASA's QuakeSim project in order to produce standards-compliant map data products to aid in decision-making following an earthquake. Remote sensing and geodetic data, in conjunction with modeling and forecasting tools, help provide both long-term planning information for disaster management decision makers as well as short-term information following earthquake events (i.e. identifying areas where the greatest deformation and damage has occurred and emergency services may need to be focused). E-DECIDER utilizes a service-based GIS model for its cyber-infrastructure in order to produce standards-compliant products for different user types with multiple service protocols (such as KML, WMS, WFS, and WCS). The goal is to make complex GIS processing and domain-specific analysis tools more accessible to general users through software services as well as provide system sustainability through infrastructure services. The system comprises several components, which include: a GeoServer for thematic mapping and data distribution, a geospatial database for storage and spatial analysis, web service APIs, including simple-to-use REST APIs for complex GIS functionalities, and geoprocessing tools including python scripts to produce standards-compliant data products. These are then served to the E-DECIDER decision support gateway (http://e-decider.org), the E-DECIDER mobile interface, and to the Department of Homeland Security decision support middleware UICDS (Unified Incident Command and Decision Support). The E-DECIDER decision support gateway features a web interface that delivers map data products including deformation modeling results (slope change and strain magnitude) and aftershock forecasts, with remote sensing change detection results under development. These products are event triggered (from the USGS earthquake feed) and will be posted to event feeds on the E-DECIDER webpage and accessible via the mobile interface and UICDS. E-DECIDER also features a KML service that provides infrastructure information from the FEMA HAZUS database through UICDS and the mobile interface. The back-end GIS service architecture and front-end gateway components form a decision support system that is designed for ease-of-use and extensibility for end-users.

Vista goes online: Decision-analytic systems for real-time decision-making in mission control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barry, Matthew; Horvitz, Eric; Ruokangas, Corinne; Srinivas, Sampath

1994-01-01

The Vista project has centered on the use of decision-theoretic approaches for managing the display of critical information relevant to real-time operations decisions. The Vista-I project originally developed a prototype of these approaches for managing flight control displays in the Space Shuttle Mission Control Center (MCC). The follow-on Vista-II project integrated these approaches in a workstation program which currently is being certified for use in the MCC. To our knowledge, this will be the first application of automated decision-theoretic reasoning techniques for real-time spacecraft operations. We shall describe the development and capabilities of the Vista-II system, and provide an overview of the use of decision-theoretic reasoning techniques to the problems of managing the complexity of flight controller displays. We discuss the relevance of the Vista techniques within the MCC decision-making environment, focusing on the problems of detecting and diagnosing spacecraft electromechanical subsystems component failures with limited information, and the problem of determining what control actions should be taken in high-stakes, time-critical situations in response to a diagnosis performed under uncertainty. Finally, we shall outline our current research directions for follow-on projects.

Flight deck engine advisor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shontz, W. D.; Records, R. M.; Antonelli, D. R.

1992-01-01

The focus of this project is on alerting pilots to impending events in such a way as to provide the additional time required for the crew to make critical decisions concerning non-normal operations. The project addresses pilots' need for support in diagnosis and trend monitoring of faults as they affect decisions that must be made within the context of the current flight. Monitoring and diagnostic modules developed under the NASA Faultfinder program were restructured and enhanced using input data from an engine model and real engine fault data. Fault scenarios were prepared to support knowledge base development activities on the MONITAUR and DRAPhyS modules of Faultfinder. An analysis of the information requirements for fault management was included in each scenario. A conceptual framework was developed for systematic evaluation of the impact of context variables on pilot action alternatives as a function of event/fault combinations.

Creating quality improvement culture in public health agencies.

PubMed

Davis, Mary V; Mahanna, Elizabeth; Joly, Brenda; Zelek, Michael; Riley, William; Verma, Pooja; Fisher, Jessica Solomon

2014-01-01

We conducted case studies of 10 agencies that participated in early quality improvement efforts. The agencies participated in a project conducted by the National Association of County and City Health Officials (2007-2008). Case study participants included health directors and quality improvement team leaders and members. We implemented multiple qualitative analysis processes, including cross-case analysis and logic modeling. We categorized agencies according to the extent to which they had developed a quality improvement culture. Agencies were conducting informal quality improvement projects (n = 4), conducting formal quality improvement projects (n = 3), or creating a quality improvement culture (n = 4). Agencies conducting formal quality improvement and creating a quality improvement culture had leadership support for quality improvement, participated in national quality improvement initiatives, had a greater number of staff trained in quality improvement and quality improvement teams that met regularly with decision-making authority. Agencies conducting informal quality improvement were likely to report that accreditation is the major driver for quality improvement work. Agencies creating a quality improvement culture were more likely to have a history of evidence-based decision-making and use quality improvement to address emerging issues. Our findings support previous research and add the roles of national public health accreditation and emerging issues as factors in agencies' ability to create and sustain a quality improvement culture.

The concept of health technology assessment. Views of applicants to funding of HTA projects.

PubMed

Lange, M; Jørgensen, T; Kristensen, F B; Stilvén, S

2000-01-01

The purpose of this study is to analyze the perception of the content of health technology assessment (HTA) among health professionals applying for a state grant of DKK 10 million. A total of 113 applications were received and analyzed. When conducting the analysis, it was assumed that the applicants' maximum five-page project description would reflect: a) the applicants' perception of what an HTA is; b) how the assessment was to be conducted; and c) what the results were going to be used for. More than 40% of all applications focused on treatment; in 51% only one or two professional groups were to be involved (thus interdisciplinarity was questionable); only 22% of the HTA cases were intended to form the basis for political/administrative decisions; in general, the HTAs were planned far less comprehensively than was relevant; 76% of the projects did not include a formal synthesis phase; 41% intended to use diffusion as the only method for publication of the HTA result. The analysis reveals several areas where DIHTA has to make an effort in order to secure that HTA in fact constitutes a comprehensive and well-documented basis for decision making. These areas concern the following topics: multidisciplinarity, the objective of HTA, comprehensiveness, the synthesis phase, and publication and utilization of the HTA result.

78 FR 17718 - Notice of Availability of the Record of Decision for the McCoy Solar Energy Project, Riverside...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-22

... McCoy Solar Energy Project (MSEP), a photovoltaic solar electricity generation project. The Secretary of... proposed would have consisted of an up to 750-megawatt photovoltaic solar energy generation facility and....LVRWB09B2510.FX0000] Notice of Availability of the Record of Decision for the McCoy Solar Energy Project...

Commitment of project participants to developing health care services based on the internet technology.

PubMed

Kouri, Pirkko; Karjalainen-Jurvelin, Ritva; Kinnunen, Juha

2005-12-01

When developing Information and Communication Technology (ICT), such as services for the decision-making process, skilled health care professionals with their comprehensive knowledge of patients/clients are essential contributors to the project. Careful evaluation is needed to assess the effectiveness of project management as well as to analyze the commitment of the personnel to goal attainment. In the course of the development of integrated maternity care services, the commitment of project participants (n=48) was evaluated. What factors enhanced or impaired their commitment to the project work? Questionnaire (n=80, response rate 60%) with quantitative analysis as well as open-ended questions with qualitative content analysis. Positive commitment was related to a confidential and open atmosphere during the project. The utilization of personal skills and experience was appreciated. Differences in the working principles and cultures between the participating organizations complicated fluent collaboration. To encourage commitment, a lot of attention should be paid to internal communication as well as the effective realization of project tasks. The strength of the project was the highly innovative and confidential atmosphere. The well-established project goals, the highly inspired project team, and the effective co-operation between the project manager and the core group helped to deepen overall commitment in the project.

AHP-based spatial analysis of water quality impact assessment due to change in vehicular traffic caused by highway broadening in Sikkim Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banerjee, Polash; Ghose, Mrinal Kanti; Pradhan, Ratika

2018-05-01

Spatial analysis of water quality impact assessment of highway projects in mountainous areas remains largely unexplored. A methodology is presented here for Spatial Water Quality Impact Assessment (SWQIA) due to highway-broadening-induced vehicular traffic change in the East district of Sikkim. Pollution load of the highway runoff was estimated using an Average Annual Daily Traffic-Based Empirical model in combination with mass balance model to predict pollution in the rivers within the study area. Spatial interpolation and overlay analysis were used for impact mapping. Analytic Hierarchy Process-Based Water Quality Status Index was used to prepare a composite impact map. Model validation criteria, cross-validation criteria, and spatial explicit sensitivity analysis show that the SWQIA model is robust. The study shows that vehicular traffic is a significant contributor to water pollution in the study area. The model is catering specifically to impact analysis of the concerned project. It can be an aid for decision support system for the project stakeholders. The applicability of SWQIA model needs to be explored and validated in the context of a larger set of water quality parameters and project scenarios at a greater spatial scale.

77 FR 52702 - Notice of Availability of Record of Decision for the Silver Strand Training Complex, California

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-30

... of Decision is available for public viewing on the project Web site at http://www... Decision are available by contacting: Ms. Amy P. Kelley, Naval Facilities Engineering Command Southwest... project Web site is found at http://www.silverstrandtrainingcomplexeis.com . Dated: August 24, 2012. C. K...

Decision support frameworks and tools for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwartz, Mark W.; Cook, Carly N.; Pressey, Robert L.; Pullin, Andrew S.; Runge, Michael C.; Salafsky, Nick; Sutherland, William J.; Williamson, Matthew A.

2018-01-01

The practice of conservation occurs within complex socioecological systems fraught with challenges that require transparent, defensible, and often socially engaged project planning and management. Planning and decision support frameworks are designed to help conservation practitioners increase planning rigor, project accountability, stakeholder participation, transparency in decisions, and learning. We describe and contrast five common frameworks within the context of six fundamental questions (why, who, what, where, when, how) at each of three planning stages of adaptive management (project scoping, operational planning, learning). We demonstrate that decision support frameworks provide varied and extensive tools for conservation planning and management. However, using any framework in isolation risks diminishing potential benefits since no one framework covers the full spectrum of potential conservation planning and decision challenges. We describe two case studies that have effectively deployed tools from across conservation frameworks to improve conservation actions and outcomes. Attention to the critical questions for conservation project planning should allow practitioners to operate within any framework and adapt tools to suit their specific management context. We call on conservation researchers and practitioners to regularly use decision support tools as standard practice for framing both practice and research.

What's the point? The contribution of a sustainability view in contaminated site remediation.

PubMed

Anderson, Robert; Norrman, Jenny; Back, Pär-Erik; Söderqvist, Tore; Rosén, Lars

2018-07-15

Decision support tools (DST) are often used in remediation projects to aid in the complex decision on how best to remediate a contaminated site. In recent years, the sustainable remediation concept has brought increased attention to the often-overlooked contradictory effects of site remediation, with a number of sustainability assessment tools now available. The aim of the present study is twofold: (1) to demonstrate how and when different assessment views affect the decision support outcome on remediation alternatives in a DST, and (2) to demonstrate the contribution of a full sustainability assessment. The SCORE tool was used in the analysis; it is based on a holistic multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach, assessing sustainability in three dimensions: environmental, social, and economic. Four assessment scenarios, compared to a full sustainability assessment, were considered to reflect different possible assessment views; considering public and private problem owner perspectives, as well as green and traditional assessment scopes. Four real case study sites in Sweden were analyzed. The results show that the decision support outcome from a full sustainability assessment most often differs to that of other assessment views, and results in remediation alternatives which balance trade-offs in most of the scenarios. In relation to the public perspective and traditional scope, which is seen to lead to the most extensive and expensive remediation alternatives, the trade-off is related to less contaminant removal in favour of reduced negative secondary effects such as emissions and waste disposal. Compared to the private perspective, associated with the lowest cost alternatives, the trade-off is higher costs, but more positive environmental and social effects. Generally, both the green and traditional assessment scopes miss out on relevant social and local environmental secondary effects which may ultimately be very important for the actual decision in a remediation project. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Partnering Community Decision Makers with Early Career Scientists - The NASA DEVELOP Method for Dual Capacity Building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ross, K. W.; Childs-Gleason, L. M.; Cripps, G. S.; Clayton, A.; Remillard, C.; Watkins, L. E.; Allsbrook, K. N.; Rogers, L.; Ruiz, M. L.

2017-12-01

The NASA DEVELOP National Program carries out many projects every year with the goal of bringing the benefits of NASA Earth science to bear on decision-making challenges that are local in scale. Every DEVELOP project partners end users with early/transitioning science professionals. Many of these projects invited communities to consider NASA science data in new ways to help them make informed decisions. All of these projects shared three characteristics: they were rapid, nimble and risk-taking. These projects work well for some communities, but might best be suited as a feasibility studies that build community/institutional capacity towards eventual solutions. This presentation will discuss DEVELOP's lessons learned and best practices in conducting short-term feasibility projects with communities, as well as highlight several past successes.

A contrast between DEMATEL-ANP and ANP methods for six sigma project selection: a case study in healthcare industry.

PubMed

Ortíz, Miguel A; Felizzola, Heriberto A; Nieto Isaza, Santiago

2015-01-01

The project selection process is a crucial step for healthcare organizations at the moment of implementing six sigma programs in both administrative and caring processes. However, six-sigma project selection is often defined as a decision making process with interaction and feedback between criteria; so that it is necessary to explore different methods to help healthcare companies to determine the Six-sigma projects that provide the maximum benefits. This paper describes the application of both ANP (Analytic Network process) and DEMATEL (Decision Making trial and evaluation laboratory)-ANP in a public medical centre to establish the most suitable six sigma project and finally, these methods were compared to evaluate their performance in the decision making process. ANP and DEMATEL-ANP were used to evaluate 6 six sigma project alternatives under an evaluation model composed by 3 strategies, 4 criteria and 15 sub-criteria. Judgement matrixes were completed by the six sigma team whose participants worked in different departments of the medical centre. The improving of care opportunity in obstetric outpatients was elected as the most suitable six sigma project with a score of 0,117 as contribution to the organization goals. DEMATEL-ANP performed better at decision making process since it reduced the error probability due to interactions and feedback. ANP and DEMATEL-ANP effectively supported six sigma project selection processes, helping to create a complete framework that guarantees the prioritization of projects that provide maximum benefits to healthcare organizations. As DEMATEL- ANP performed better, it should be used by practitioners involved in decisions related to the implementation of six sigma programs in healthcare sector accompanied by the adequate identification of the evaluation criteria that support the decision making model. Thus, this comparative study contributes to choosing more effective approaches in this field. Suggestions of further work are also proposed so that these methods can be applied more adequate in six sigma project selection processes in healthcare.

A contrast between DEMATEL-ANP and ANP methods for six sigma project selection: a case study in healthcare industry

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Background The project selection process is a crucial step for healthcare organizations at the moment of implementing six sigma programs in both administrative and caring processes. However, six-sigma project selection is often defined as a decision making process with interaction and feedback between criteria; so that it is necessary to explore different methods to help healthcare companies to determine the Six-sigma projects that provide the maximum benefits. This paper describes the application of both ANP (Analytic Network process) and DEMATEL (Decision Making trial and evaluation laboratory)-ANP in a public medical centre to establish the most suitable six sigma project and finally, these methods were compared to evaluate their performance in the decision making process. Methods ANP and DEMATEL-ANP were used to evaluate 6 six sigma project alternatives under an evaluation model composed by 3 strategies, 4 criteria and 15 sub-criteria. Judgement matrixes were completed by the six sigma team whose participants worked in different departments of the medical centre. Results The improving of care opportunity in obstetric outpatients was elected as the most suitable six sigma project with a score of 0,117 as contribution to the organization goals. DEMATEL-ANP performed better at decision making process since it reduced the error probability due to interactions and feedback. Conclusions ANP and DEMATEL-ANP effectively supported six sigma project selection processes, helping to create a complete framework that guarantees the prioritization of projects that provide maximum benefits to healthcare organizations. As DEMATEL- ANP performed better, it should be used by practitioners involved in decisions related to the implementation of six sigma programs in healthcare sector accompanied by the adequate identification of the evaluation criteria that support the decision making model. Thus, this comparative study contributes to choosing more effective approaches in this field. Suggestions of further work are also proposed so that these methods can be applied more adequate in six sigma project selection processes in healthcare. PMID:26391445

Advancing the application of systems thinking in health: sustainability evaluation as learning and sense-making in a complex urban health system in Northern Bangladesh.

PubMed

Sarriot, Eric G; Kouletio, Michelle; Jahan, Dr Shamim; Rasul, Izaz; Musha, Akm

2014-08-26

Starting in 1999, Concern Worldwide Inc. (Concern) worked with two Bangladeshi municipal health departments to support delivery of maternal and child health preventive services. A mid-term evaluation identified sustainability challenges. Concern relied on systems thinking implicitly to re-prioritize sustainability, but stakeholders also required a method, an explicit set of processes, to guide their decisions and choices during and after the project. Concern chose the Sustainability Framework method to generate creative thinking from stakeholders, create a common vision, and monitor progress. The Framework is based on participatory and iterative steps: defining (mapping) the local system and articulating a long-term vision, describing scenarios for achieving the vision, defining the elements of the model, and selecting corresponding indicators, setting and executing an assessment plan,, and repeated stakeholder engagement in analysis and decisions . Formal assessments took place up to 5 years post-project (2009). Strategic choices for the project were guided by articulating a collective vision for sustainable health, mapping the system of actors required to effect and sustain change, and defining different components of analysis. Municipal authorities oriented health teams toward equity-oriented service delivery efforts, strengthening of the functionality of Ward Health Committees, resource leveraging between municipalities and the Ministry of Health, and mitigation of contextual risks. Regular reference to a vision (and set of metrics (population health, organizational and community capacity) mitigated political factors. Key structures and processes were maintained following elections and political changes. Post-project achievements included the maintenance or improvement 5 years post-project (2009) in 9 of the 11 health indicator gains realized during the project (1999-2004). Some elements of performance and capacity weakened, but reductions in the equity gap achieved during the project were largely maintained post-project. Sustainability is dynamic and results from local systems processes, which can be strengthened through both implicit and explicit systems thinking steps applied with constancy of purpose.

A Review and Analysis of Remote Sensing Capability for Air Quality Measurements as a Potential Decision Support Tool Conducted by the NASA DEVELOP Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, A.; Richards, A.; Keith, K.; Frew, C.; Boseck, J.; Sutton, S.; Watts, C.; Rickman, D.

2007-01-01

This project focused on a comprehensive utilization of air quality model products as decision support tools (DST) needed for public health applications. A review of past and future air quality measurement methods and their uncertainty, along with the relationship of air quality to national and global public health, is vital. This project described current and future NASA satellite remote sensing and ground sensing capabilities and the potential for using these sensors to enhance the prediction, prevention, and control of public health effects that result from poor air quality. The qualitative uncertainty of current satellite remotely sensed air quality, the ground-based remotely sensed air quality, the air quality/public health model, and the decision making process is evaluated in this study. Current peer-reviewed literature suggests that remotely sensed air quality parameters correlate well with ground-based sensor data. A satellite remote-sensed and ground-sensed data complement is needed to enhance the models/tools used by policy makers for the protection of national and global public health communities

Releases of whooping cranes to the Florida nonmigratory flock: a structured decision-making approach: report to the International Whooping Crane Recovery Team, September 22, 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moore, Clinton T.; Converse, Sarah J.; Folk, Martin J.; Boughton, Robin; Brooks, Bill; French, John B.; O'Meara, Timothy; Putnam, Michael; Rodgers, James; Spalding, Marilyn

2008-01-01

We used a structured decision-making approach to inform the decision of whether the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission should request of the International Whooping Crane Recovery Team that additional whooping crane chicks be released into the Florida Non-Migratory Population (FNMP). Structured decision-making is an application of decision science that strives to produce transparent, replicable, and defensible decisions that recognize the appropriate roles of management policy and science in decision-making. We present a multi-objective decision framework, where management objectives include successful establishment of a whooping crane population in Florida, minimization of costs, positive public relations, information gain, and providing a supply of captive-reared birds to alternative crane release projects, such as the Eastern Migratory Population. We developed models to predict the outcome relative to each of these objectives under 29 different scenarios of the release methodology used from 1993 to 2004, including options of no further releases and variable numbers of releases per year over the next 5-30 years. In particular, we developed a detailed set of population projection models, which make substantially different predictions about the probability of successful establishment of the FNMP. We used expert elicitation to develop prior model weights (measures of confidence in population model predictions); the results of the population model weighting and modelaveraging exercise indicated that the probability of successful establishment of the FNMP ranged from 9% if no additional releases are made, to as high as 41% with additional releases. We also used expert elicitation to develop weights (relative values) on the set of identified objectives, and we then used a formal optimization technique for identifying the optimal decision, which considers the tradeoffs between objectives. The optimal decision was identified as release of 3 cohorts (24 birds) per year over the next 10 years. However, any decision that involved release of 1-3 cohorts (8-24 birds) per year over the next 5 to 20 years, as well as decisions that involve skipping releases in every other year, performed better in our analysis than the alternative of no further releases. These results were driven by the relatively high objective weights that experts placed on the population objective (i.e., successful establishment of the FNMP) and the information gain objective (where releases are expected to accelerate learning on what was identified as a primary uncertainty: the demographic performance of wild-hatched birds). Additional considerations that were not formally integrated into the analysis are also discussed.

The Native Comic Book Project: Native Youth Making Comics and Healthy Decisions

PubMed Central

Montgomery, Michelle; Manuelito, Brenda; Nass, Carrie; Chock, Tami; Buchwald, Dedra

2015-01-01

Background American Indians and Alaska Natives have traditionally used stories and drawings to positively influence the well-being of their communities. Objectives The objective of this study was to describe the development of a curriculum that trains Native youth leaders to plan, write, and design original comic books to enhance healthy decision making. Methods Project staff developed the Native Comic Book Project by adapting Dr. Michael Bitz’s Comic Book Project to incorporate Native comic book art, Native storytelling, and decision-making skills. After conducting five train-the-trainer sessions for Native youth, staff were invited by youth participants to implement the full curriculum as a pilot test at one tribal community site in the Pacific Northwest. Implementation was accompanied by surveys and weekly participant observations and was followed by an interactive meeting to assess youth engagement, determine project acceptability, and solicit suggestions for curriculum changes. Results Six youths aged 12 to 15 (average age = 14) participated in the Native Comic Book Project. Youth participants stated that they liked the project and gained knowledge of the harmful effects of commercial tobacco use but wanted better integration of comic book creation, decision making, and Native storytelling themes. Conclusion Previous health-related comic book projects did not recruit youth as active producers of content. This curriculum shows promise as a culturally appropriate intervention to help Native youth adopt healthy decision-making skills and healthy behaviors by creating their own comic books. PMID:22259070

Discrimination in lexical decision

PubMed Central

Feldman, Laurie Beth; Ramscar, Michael; Hendrix, Peter; Baayen, R. Harald

2017-01-01

In this study we present a novel set of discrimination-based indicators of language processing derived from Naive Discriminative Learning (ndl) theory. We compare the effectiveness of these new measures with classical lexical-distributional measures—in particular, frequency counts and form similarity measures—to predict lexical decision latencies when a complete morphological segmentation of masked primes is or is not possible. Data derive from a re-analysis of a large subset of decision latencies from the English Lexicon Project, as well as from the results of two new masked priming studies. Results demonstrate the superiority of discrimination-based predictors over lexical-distributional predictors alone, across both the simple and primed lexical decision tasks. Comparable priming after masked corner and cornea type primes, across two experiments, fails to support early obligatory segmentation into morphemes as predicted by the morpho-orthographic account of reading. Results fit well with ndl theory, which, in conformity with Word and Paradigm theory, rejects the morpheme as a relevant unit of analysis. Furthermore, results indicate that readers with greater spelling proficiency and larger vocabularies make better use of orthographic priors and handle lexical competition more efficiently. PMID:28235015

Decision Support System for Coastal Protection Layout Design (DSS4CPD) Using Genetic Algorithm (ga) and Multicriteria Analysis (mca)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jinchai, Phinai; Chittaladakorn, Suwatana

This research has its objective to develop the decision support system on GIS to be used in the coastal erosion protection management. The developed model in this research is called Decision Support System for Coastal Protection Layout Design (DSS4CPD). It has created both for systematic protection and solution measures to the problem by using Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Multicriteria Analysis (MCA) for finding the coastal structure layout optimal solution. In this research, three types of coastal structures were used as structure alternatives for the layout, which are seawall, breakwater, and groin. The coastal area in Nakornsrithammaraj, Thailand was used as the case study. The studied result has found the appropriate position of coastal structures considering the suitable rock size relied on the wave energy, and the appropriate coastal structure position based on the wave breaking line. Using GA and MCA in DSS4CPD, it found the best layout in this project. This DSS4CPD will be used by the authorized decision makers to find the most suitable erosion problem solution.

Discrimination in lexical decision.

PubMed

Milin, Petar; Feldman, Laurie Beth; Ramscar, Michael; Hendrix, Peter; Baayen, R Harald

2017-01-01

In this study we present a novel set of discrimination-based indicators of language processing derived from Naive Discriminative Learning (ndl) theory. We compare the effectiveness of these new measures with classical lexical-distributional measures-in particular, frequency counts and form similarity measures-to predict lexical decision latencies when a complete morphological segmentation of masked primes is or is not possible. Data derive from a re-analysis of a large subset of decision latencies from the English Lexicon Project, as well as from the results of two new masked priming studies. Results demonstrate the superiority of discrimination-based predictors over lexical-distributional predictors alone, across both the simple and primed lexical decision tasks. Comparable priming after masked corner and cornea type primes, across two experiments, fails to support early obligatory segmentation into morphemes as predicted by the morpho-orthographic account of reading. Results fit well with ndl theory, which, in conformity with Word and Paradigm theory, rejects the morpheme as a relevant unit of analysis. Furthermore, results indicate that readers with greater spelling proficiency and larger vocabularies make better use of orthographic priors and handle lexical competition more efficiently.

Participation in social forestry re-examined: a case-study from Bangladesh.

PubMed

Khan, N A; Begum, S A

1997-08-01

Bangladesh has enthusiastically launched social forestry projects that make grandiose promises of seeking local community involvement and participation in the management of forest resources. This study examines the functioning of the Chandra Agroforestry Research and Demonstration Project to evaluate the actual extent and nature of popular participation it entails. After discussing the project and its locale, the methodology of the study is described as an analysis of qualitative and quantitative data collected in the period February-August 1994. The theoretical framework was based on a modified version of Zaman's framework that uses prevalence and opportunity as the indicators of participation. Analysis of prevalence indicators reveals that professional foresters make all major decisions for the project without consulting the farmers involved. The government also has sole responsibility for monitoring and evaluating the project, and the farmers are skeptical that the government will allow them to profit from the benefits arising from the project. Analysis of opportunity indicators shows that the project is not decentralized, cooperative and collaborative linkages have not been made, project flexibility has been sacrificed to bureaucracy, and the incentives promised to the farmers have not materialized. It is concluded that the participation of local residents in the Chandra project has been insignificant but that the project has succeeded in reducing 1) the historical distrust and conflict between forestry officials and local farmers, 2) encroachment on government lands, and 3) the rate of deforestation. In addition, the project has given participating farmers a sense of security.

What drives continuous improvement project success in healthcare?

PubMed

Stelson, Paul; Hille, Joshua; Eseonu, Chinweike; Doolen, Toni

2017-02-13

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present findings from a study of factors that affect continuous improvement (CI) project success in hospitals. Design/methodology/approach Quantitative regression analysis was performed on Likert scale survey responses. Qualitative thematic analysis was performed on open-ended survey responses and written reports on CI projects. Findings The paper identifies managerial and employee factors that affect project success. These factors include managerial support, communication, and affective commitment. Affective commitment is the extent to which employees perceive the change as being needed or necessary. Practical implications The results highlight how managerial decisions, approaches to communication - including communication before, during and after CI projects affect project success. The results also show that success depends on the way employees perceive proposed changes. This suggests the need for a more individualized approach to CI, lean, and broader change initiatives. Originality/value This research is the first to fuse project success and sustainability theory to CI projects, beyond Kaizen events, in healthcare environments. The research is particularly important at a time when healthcare organizations are required to make rapid changes with limited resources as they work toward outcome-based assessment and reimbursement rules.

Evaluation of a proposed expert system development methodology: Two case studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilstrap, Lewey

1990-01-01

Two expert system development projects were studied to evaluate a proposed Expert Systems Development Methodology (ESDM). The ESDM was developed to provide guidance to managers and technical personnel and serve as a standard in the development of expert systems. It was agreed that the proposed ESDM must be evaluated before it could be adopted; therefore a study was planned for its evaluation. This detailed study is now underway. Before the study began, however, two ongoing projects were selected for a retrospective evaluation. They were the Ranging Equipment Diagnostic Expert System (REDEX) and the Backup Control Mode Analysis and Utility System (BCAUS). Both projects were approximately 1 year into development. Interviews of project personnel were conducted, and the resulting data was used to prepare the retrospective evaluation. Decision models of the two projects were constructed and used to evaluate the completeness and accuracy of key provisions of ESDM. A major conclusion reached from these case studies is that suitability and risk analysis should be required for all AI projects, large and small. Further, the objectives of each stage of development during a project should be selected to reduce the next largest area of risk or uncertainty on the project.

The Infusion of Dust Model Model Outputs into Public Health Decision Making - an Examination of Differential Adoption of SOAP and Open Geospatial Consortium Service Products into Public Health Decision Support Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benedict, K. K.

2008-12-01

Since 2004 the Earth Data Analysis Center, in collaboration with the researchers at the University of Arizona and George Mason University, with funding from NASA, has been developing a services oriented architecture (SOA) that acquires remote sensing, meteorological forecast, and observed ground level particulate data (EPA AirNow) from NASA, NOAA, and DataFed through a variety of standards-based service interfaces. These acquired data are used to initialize and set boundary conditions for the execution of the Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (DREAM) to generate daily 48-hour dust forecasts, which are then published via a combination of Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) services (WMS and WCS), basic HTTP request-based services, and SOAP services. The goal of this work has been to develop services that can be integrated into existing public health decision support systems (DSS) to provide enhanced environmental data (i.e. ground surface particulate concentration estimates) for use in epidemiological analysis, public health warning systems, and syndromic surveillance systems. While the project has succeeded in deploying these products into the target systems, there has been differential adoption of the different service interface products, with the simple OGC and HTTP interfaces generating much greater interest by DSS developers and researchers than the more complex SOAP service interfaces. This paper reviews the SOA developed as part of this project and provides insights into how different service models may have a significant impact on the infusion of Earth science products into decision making processes and systems.

75 FR 62853 - Notice of Availability of the Record of Decision for the Imperial Valley Solar Project and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-13

..., LVRAB109AA01] Notice of Availability of the Record of Decision for the Imperial Valley Solar Project and...) application CACA-47740 for the proposed SES Solar Two Project. After merging with Tessera Solar, the applicant changed its name to Imperial Valley Solar, LLC, and changed the name of the project to the Imperial Valley...

Decision-making in product portfolios of pharmaceutical research and development – managing streams of innovation in highly regulated markets

PubMed Central

Jekunen, Antti

2014-01-01

Decision-making is a core function of any drug development firm. Developing drugs demands a firm to be highly innovative, while at the same time the activity is strictly regulated. Successful drug development offers the right to apply for a long-term patent that confers exclusive marketing rights. This article addresses the issue of what constitutes an adequate portfolio of drugs for a drug development firm and how it might be managed successfully. The paper investigates decision-making in the industry and specifically in the development of oncology drugs from various perspectives: the need for decisions, their timing, decision-making at the project level, the optimal portfolio, tools for portfolio analysis, the evaluation of patents, and finally the importance of the drug portfolio. Drug development decisions as important organizational elements should get more emphasis, and decisions in drug portfolio using modern decision-making methods should be used more widely than what currently happens. Structured, informed decisions would help avoiding late terminations of drugs in Phase III development. An improved research and development pipeline and drug portfolio management are the major elements in the general strategy targeting success. PMID:25364229

Decision-making in product portfolios of pharmaceutical research and development--managing streams of innovation in highly regulated markets.

PubMed

Jekunen, Antti

2014-01-01

Decision-making is a core function of any drug development firm. Developing drugs demands a firm to be highly innovative, while at the same time the activity is strictly regulated. Successful drug development offers the right to apply for a long-term patent that confers exclusive marketing rights. This article addresses the issue of what constitutes an adequate portfolio of drugs for a drug development firm and how it might be managed successfully. The paper investigates decision-making in the industry and specifically in the development of oncology drugs from various perspectives: the need for decisions, their timing, decision-making at the project level, the optimal portfolio, tools for portfolio analysis, the evaluation of patents, and finally the importance of the drug portfolio. Drug development decisions as important organizational elements should get more emphasis, and decisions in drug portfolio using modern decision-making methods should be used more widely than what currently happens. Structured, informed decisions would help avoiding late terminations of drugs in Phase III development. An improved research and development pipeline and drug portfolio management are the major elements in the general strategy targeting success.

Grade Repetition in Honduran Primary Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marshall, Jeffery H.

2003-01-01

This paper looks at several dimensions of the grade failure issue in Honduras using a unique data set compiled by the UMCE evaluation project in 1998 and 1999. The analytical framework incorporates econometric analysis of standardized tests and teacher pass/fail decisions for roughly 13,000 second and fourth grade students. The results show that…

MLA Panel Finds No "Lost Generation of Scholars" from the Tenure Track

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Howard, Jennifer

2006-01-01

Academic departments should beware of "the tyranny of the monograph," and consider projects like translations and electronic publications in making hiring and tenure decisions, a Modern Language Association panel said in a much-anticipated report. The report gives a thorough historical analysis of "the shifting nature of academic work over the…

The Responsiveness of Public Schools to Their Clientele. Milestone 1: Report of Progress.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zeigler, L. Harmon; And Others

An analysis of the literature dealing with the responsiveness of public institutions to their clientele constitutes the main body of this interim project report. The analysts adopted Dahl and Lindblom's classification of political decision-making processes for summarizing the range of governing systems possible in public education. These four…

The Duality of Information Policy Debates: The Case of the Internet Governance Forum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Epstein, Dmitry

2012-01-01

This project focuses on the dynamics of the Internet Governance Forum (IGF) as a non-binding multistakeholder debate about information policymaking. Using the theory of structuration and critical discourse analysis, I explore how the nation-state-centric and the internet-community-centric perceptions of authority and approaches to decision-making…

Bourdieu and Higher Education Research: A Bricolage Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morrison, Andrew

2017-01-01

I argue for the continuing relevance of the Bourdieusian theoretical schema to research related to higher education. The paper discusses my use of Bourdieu in two research projects: an examination of the educational and occupational decision-making of final-year vocational A-level students; an analysis of the perceptions of final-year…

Greenwich Township Environmental Analysis: A Field Study 1972-74.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bahorik, J. Wesley, Ed.

This project attempted to develop a baseline on which the community could assess its own local environment. The objectives of the study include developing a list of references and resources, developing an assessment model for community use, composing an environmental quality index, determining areas to be protected and persuading decision-making…

"All in Favour, Say Aye!" Voting in Pupils' Collaborative Talk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Newman, Ruth

2015-01-01

This paper draws on the findings of an Economic and Social Research Council and British Telecom-funded project which explored the teaching of collaborative talk in the secondary English classroom. During the analysis of the video data collected, voting was observed as a strategy in pupils' collaborative decision-making. Converse to its democratic…

Practice of Supporting Young People with Chronic Health Conditions in Hospital and Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

St Leger, Pamela

2014-01-01

How do health professionals and teachers make decisions about supporting young people whose lives are disrupted by chronic health conditions to stay in touch with schooling? Analysis of the interview and focus group data from health and education professionals who participated in the "Keeping Connected" project reflected common…

Real Options in Defense R and D: A Decision Tree Analysis Approach for Options to Defer, Abandon, and Expand

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-12-01

chosen rather than complex ones , and responds to the criticism of the DTA approach. Chapter IV provides three separate case studies in defense R&D...defense R&D projects. To this end, the first section describes the case study method and the advantages of using simple models over more complex ones ...the analysis lacked empirical data and relied on subjective data, the analysis successfully combined the DTA approach with the case study method and

Earth Sciences Data and Information System (ESDIS) program planning and evaluation methodology development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dickinson, William B.

1995-01-01

An Earth Sciences Data and Information System (ESDIS) Project Management Plan (PMP) is prepared. An ESDIS Project Systems Engineering Management Plan (SEMP) consistent with the developed PMP is also prepared. ESDIS and related EOS program requirements developments, management and analysis processes are evaluated. Opportunities to improve the effectiveness of these processes and program/project responsiveness to requirements are identified. Overall ESDIS cost estimation processes are evaluated, and recommendations to improve cost estimating and modeling techniques are developed. ESDIS schedules and scheduling tools are evaluated. Risk assessment, risk mitigation strategies and approaches, and use of risk information in management decision-making are addressed.

[The role of epidemiology in the process of decision-making].

PubMed

Prost, A

1997-01-01

Epidemiology is the method of choice for quantifying and interpreting health phenomena, placing them into perspective to allow trend analysis and projections. It is a tool for analysis, evaluation and forecasting and is thus indispensable in the decision-making process. However, this comprehensive technique has its limitations since health is the result of complex interactions: individual requirements do not always correspond to the overall needs of the community; consideration has to be given to solidarity and the necessity for cost-sharing; and the decision process is strongly influenced by social, cultural, religious and political factors which defy quantification and, on occasion, any rational course of action. Each indicator only takes into account one aspect of the situation and the pertinent indicator should therefore be carefully selected. At the same time, any choice implicitly signifies value judgements-often unnoticed-which need to be balanced and validated in relation to the ethical values of the community in order to be of any assistance to decision-making. Decision-making is a qualitative political process which, although based on the quantitative analysis supplied by epidemiology, cannot be limited to it. Each approach enhance the other, but they should not be confused if freedom to act is to be preserved from being locked into some kind of mechanical process that is unacceptable both to man and to society.

A decision support system for map projections of small scale data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Finn, Michael P.; Usery, E. Lynn; Posch, Stephan T.; Seong, Jeong Chang

2004-01-01

The use of commercial geographic information system software to process large raster datasets of terrain elevation, population, land cover, vegetation, soils, temperature, and rainfall requires both projection from spherical coordinates to plane coordinate systems and transformation from one plane system to another. Decision support systems deliver information resulting in knowledge that assists in policies, priorities, or processes. This paper presents an approach to handling the problems of raster dataset projection and transformation through the development of a Web-enabled decision support system to aid users of transformation processes with the selection of appropriate map projections based on data type, areal extent, location, and preservation properties.

76 FR 80961 - Notice of Availability of the Record of Decision for the Sonoran Solar Energy Project, Arizona

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-12-27

... following major components or systems: PV modules/arrays; solar trackers and/or fixed support structures; an...;AZA34187] Notice of Availability of the Record of Decision for the Sonoran Solar Energy Project, Arizona... Management (BLM) announces the availability of the Record of Decision (ROD) for the Sonoran Solar Energy...

Negotiating a Systems Development Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karlsson, Fredrik; Hedström, Karin

Systems development methods (or methods) are often applied in tailored version to fit the actual situation. Method tailoring is in most the existing literature viewed as either (a) a highly rational process with the method engineer as the driver where the project members are passive information providers or (b) an unstructured process where the systems developer makes individual choices, a selection process without any driver. The purpose of this chapter is to illustrate that important design decisions during method tailoring are made by project members through negotiation. The study has been carried out using the perspective of actor-network theory. Our narratives depict method tailoring as more complex than (a) and (b) show the driver role rotates between the project members, and design decisions are based on influences from several project members. However, these design decisions are not consensus decisions.

Application of Risk Assessment Tools in the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Paul S.

2002-01-01

Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is currently implementing the Continuous Risk Management (CRM) Program developed by the Carnegie Mellon University and recommended by NASA as the Risk Management (RM) implementation approach. The four most frequently used risk assessment tools in the center are: (a) Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Hazard Analysis (HA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), and Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA). There are some guidelines for selecting the type of risk assessment tools during the project formulation phase of a project, but there is not enough guidance as to how to apply these tools in the Continuous Risk Management process (CRM). But the ways the safety and risk assessment tools are used make a significant difference in the effectiveness in the risk management function. Decisions regarding, what events are to be included in the analysis, to what level of details should the analysis be continued, make significant difference in the effectiveness of risk management program. Tools of risk analysis also depends on the phase of a project e.g. at the initial phase of a project, when not much data are available on hardware, standard FMEA cannot be applied; instead a functional FMEA may be appropriate. This study attempted to provide some directives to alleviate the difficulty in applying FTA, PRA, and FMEA in the CRM process. Hazard Analysis was not included in the scope of the study due to the short duration of the summer research project.

Cognitive task analysis of network analysts and managers for network situational awareness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erbacher, Robert F.; Frincke, Deborah A.; Wong, Pak Chung; Moody, Sarah; Fink, Glenn

2010-01-01

The goal of our project is to create a set of next-generation cyber situational-awareness capabilities with applications to other domains in the long term. The situational-awareness capabilities being developed focus on novel visualization techniques as well as data analysis techniques designed to improve the comprehensibility of the visualizations. The objective is to improve the decision-making process to enable decision makers to choose better actions. To this end, we put extensive effort into ensuring we had feedback from network analysts and managers and understanding what their needs truly are. This paper discusses the cognitive task analysis methodology we followed to acquire feedback from the analysts. This paper also provides the details we acquired from the analysts on their processes, goals, concerns, etc. A final result we describe is the generation of a task-flow diagram.

Construction Know-How: Making the Best Possible Decisions Regarding School Construction and Renovation Projects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Argon, Joe, Ed.; Spoor, Dana L.; Cox, Susan M.; Brown, Andrew; Ray, Jennifer

1998-01-01

Presents a series of articles that examine decision making in school construction and renovation projects. Topics include preparing for a construction project, purchasing windows that provide protection at a reasonable cost, choosing the best flooring and carpeting, and dealing with deregulation. An industry roundtable discussion on project…

Making Pedagogical Decisions to Address Challenges of Joint Jewish-Bedouin Environmental Projects in Israel

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alkaher, Iris; Tal, Tali

2016-01-01

This interpretive study identifies challenges of working with Bedouin and Jewish Israeli youth in two multicultural projects: education for sustainability and place-conscious education. It also describes the ways the adult project leaders addressed these challenges and their views on the effectiveness of their decisions. Participants comprised 16…

Factual Approach in Decision Making - the Prerequisite of Success in Quality Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kučerová, Marta; Škůrková Lestyánszka, Katarína

2013-12-01

In quality management system as well as in other managerial systems, effective decisions must be always based on the data and information analysis, i.e. based on facts, in accordance with the factual approach principle in quality management. It is therefore necessary to measure and collect the data and information about processes. The article presents the results of a conducted survey, which was focused on application of factual approach in decision making. It also offers suggestions for improvements of application of the principle in business practice. This article was prepared using the research results of VEGA project No. 1/0229/08 "Perspectives of the quality management development in relation to the requirements of market in the Slovak Republic".

Evaluating international development investments based on ecosystem services impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fremier, A. K.; Brauman, K. A.; Mulligan, M.; Chaplin-Kramer, R.; Gordon, L.; Luedeling, E.; Jones, S. K.; DeClerck, F.

2016-12-01

Engineered water-control structures to supply water for agriculture are frequently funded by international development to an effort to improve human wellbeing. Dams, reservoirs, and other forms of water control frequently have negative impacts on other water users; however, their sustainability in the face of climate change and evolving watershed processes have been called into question. Increasingly, planning for and evaluation of investments in water control require integration of these larger scale impacts and dependencies. Ecosystem service approaches can use local to regional scale knowledge to integrate a broader scope of project impacts by quantifying trade-offs in multiple services across proposed development interventions and future scenarios (economic, climate, demographic). Here, we illustrate the role an ecosystem service approach can play in investment decision making to evaluate the impact of small reservoirs on human wellbeing in the Upper Volta Basin of West Africa. Our project has four components: (1) design of a spatially explicit regional-level social-ecological characterization; (2) construction of future scenario analyses for rainfed and irrigated production system interventions; (3) co-design and co-development of benefit sharing mechanisms at the reservoir catchment level and enhancing institutional capacity to implement these mechanisms through training, professional development and targeting tools; and (4) intervention decision analysis to identify benefits, costs and risks associated with decision options. We illustrate how this approach highlights different outcomes than standard cost-benefit analysis focused narrowly on the single project. Anticipated outcomes are development of ecosystem services-based methods for more equitably and sustainably evaluating development interventions and identifying management approaches to water-impoundment structures that promote a range of ecosystem services to provide food security to a broader population.

Adapting to Uncertainty: Comparing Methodological Approaches to Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huda, J.; Kauneckis, D. L.

2013-12-01

Climate change adaptation represents a number of unique policy-making challenges. Foremost among these is dealing with the range of future climate impacts to a wide scope of inter-related natural systems, their interaction with social and economic systems, and uncertainty resulting from the variety of downscaled climate model scenarios and climate science projections. These cascades of uncertainty have led to a number of new approaches as well as a reexamination of traditional methods for evaluating risk and uncertainty in policy-making. Policy makers are required to make decisions and formulate policy irrespective of the level of uncertainty involved and while a debate continues regarding the level of scientific certainty required in order to make a decision, incremental change in the climate policy continues at multiple governance levels. This project conducts a comparative analysis of the range of methodological approaches that are evolving to address uncertainty in climate change policy. It defines 'methodologies' to include a variety of quantitative and qualitative approaches involving both top-down and bottom-up policy processes that attempt to enable policymakers to synthesize climate information into the policy process. The analysis examines methodological approaches to decision-making in climate policy based on criteria such as sources of policy choice information, sectors to which the methodology has been applied, sources from which climate projections were derived, quantitative and qualitative methods used to deal with uncertainty, and the benefits and limitations of each. A typology is developed to better categorize the variety of approaches and methods, examine the scope of policy activities they are best suited for, and highlight areas for future research and development.

Evaluating local policy adoption campaigns in California: Tobacco Retail License (TRL) adoption.

PubMed

Satterlund, Travis D; Treiber, Jeanette; Haun, Sue; Cassady, Diana

2014-06-01

As part of its state-wide "denormalization" campaign, the California Tobacco Control Program has funded local tobacco control projects to secure tobacco retail licenses (TRLs) in their communities. TRL policies generate funding by requiring tobacco retailers within a jurisdiction to obtain a license, which is in addition to the state license that tobacco retailers are legally required to purchase to sell tobacco products. The funding provided by TRLs enables local law enforcement to carry out inspection and enforcement operations. This paper examines the unique processes by which local project campaigns attempt to get TRL policies adopted in communities across the State of California. Twenty-two local projects submitted final evaluation reports pertaining to the adoption of TRLs, and the reports from these projects form the basis of the analysis. Successful campaigns tended to include the following strategies: (1) determining policy readiness; (2) gathering local data; (3) identifying and working with a "champion"; (4) building relationships with local law enforcement agencies and decision makers; and (5) educating community and decision makers. The major challenges faced by local projects included budget cuts and staffing issues, concern about creating an unfavorable environment for business by imposing more regulations and fees, and complaints about using law enforcement resources for tobacco control in light of more "pressing" public safety issues. These challenges proved difficult for local projects to overcome, and also highlight the need for projects to create and carry out strong but flexible tactical plans that incorporate the aforementioned strategies.

Analysis of return on investment for Naval air station fallon energy project Alternatives

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-01

Second Reader: Daniel Nussbaum THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK i REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704–0188 Public reporting...Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2–89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239–18 ii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iii Approved for public release...be awarded in its current form as an Energy Savings Performance Contract (ESPC). This analysis can support the decision- making process for similar

ACHP | News

Science.gov Websites

Chairman of FERC in reaching his final decision on the project. The Chairman of FERC must take into account these comments and respond to them prior to reaching a decision on the project. Read the ACHP's comments

An Overview of the Role of Systems Analysis in NASA's Hypersonics Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, Jeffrey S.; Martin John G.; Bowles, Jeffrey V> ; Mehta, Unmeel B.; Snyder, CHristopher A.

2006-01-01

NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate recently restructured its Vehicle Systems Program, refocusing it towards understanding the fundamental physics that govern flight in all speed regimes. Now called the Fundamental Aeronautics Program, it is comprised of four new projects, Subsonic Fixed Wing, Subsonic Rotary Wing, Supersonics, and Hypersonics. The Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate has charged the Hypersonics Project with having a basic understanding of all systems that travel at hypersonic speeds within the Earth's and other planets atmospheres. This includes both powered and unpowered systems, such as re-entry vehicles and vehicles powered by rocket or airbreathing propulsion that cruise in and accelerate through the atmosphere. The primary objective of the Hypersonics Project is to develop physics-based predictive tools that enable the design, analysis and optimization of such systems. The Hypersonics Project charges the systems analysis discipline team with providing it the decision-making information it needs to properly guide research and technology development. Credible, rapid, and robust multi-disciplinary system analysis processes and design tools are required in order to generate this information. To this end, the principal challenges for the systems analysis team are the introduction of high fidelity physics into the analysis process and integration into a design environment, quantification of design uncertainty through the use of probabilistic methods, reduction in design cycle time, and the development and implementation of robust processes and tools enabling a wide design space and associated technology assessment capability. This paper will discuss the roles and responsibilities of the systems analysis discipline team within the Hypersonics Project as well as the tools, methods, processes, and approach that the team will undertake in order to perform its project designated functions.

Lunar-Ultraviolet Telescope Experiment (LUTE) integrated program plan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Janice F. (Compiler); Forrest, Larry

1993-01-01

A detailed Lunar Ultraviolet Telescope Experiment (LUTE) program plan representing major decisions and tasks leading to those decisions for program execution are presented. The purpose of this task was to develop an integrated plan of project activities for the LUTE project, and to display the plan as an integrated network that shows the project activities, all critical interfaces, and schedules. The integrated network will provide the project manager with a frame work for strategic planning and risk management throughout the life of the project.

Proposing a Formalised Model for Mindful Information Systems Offshoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Costello, Gabriel J.; Coughlan, Chris; Donnellan, Brian; Gadatsch, Andreas

The central thesis of this chapter is that mathematical economics can provide a novel approach to the examination of offshoring business decisions and provide an impetus for future research in the area. A growing body of research indicates that projected cost savings from IT offshoring projects are not being met. Furthermore, evidence suggests that decision-making processes have been more emotional than rational, and that many offshoring arrangements have been rushed into without adequate analysis of the true costs involved. Building on the concept of mindfulness and mindlessness introduced to the IS literature by Swanson and Ramiller, a cost equation is developed using “deductive reasoning rather than inductive study” in the tradition of mathematical economics. The model endeavours to capture a wide range of both the quantitative and qualitative parameters. Although the economic model is illustrated against the background of a European scenario, the theoretical framework is generic and applicable to organisations in any global location.

Modeling the transfer of land and water from agricultural to urban uses in the Middle Rio Grande Basin, New Mexico.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jarratt, Janet; Passell, Howard David; Kelly, Susan

2004-11-01

Social and ecological scientists emphasize that effective natural resource management depends in part on understanding the dynamic relationship between the physical and non-physical process associated with resource consumption. In this case, the physical processes include hydrological, climatological and ecological dynamics, and the non-physical process include social, economic and cultural dynamics among humans who do the resource consumption. This project represents a case study aimed at modeling coupled social and physical processes in a single decision support system. In central New Mexico, individual land use decisions over the past five decades have resulted in the gradual transformation of the Middle Riomore » Grande Valley from a primarily rural agricultural landscape to a largely urban one. In the arid southwestern U.S., the aggregate impact of individual decisions about land use is uniquely important to understand, because scarce hydrological resources will likely limit the viability of resulting growth and development trajectories. This decision support tool is intended to help planners in the area look forward in their efforts to create a collectively defined 'desired' social landscape in the Middle Rio Grande. Our research question explored the ways in which socio-cultural values impact decisions regarding that landscape and associated land use. Because of the constraints hydrological resources place on land use, we first assumed that water use, as embodied in water rights, was a reasonable surrogate for land use. We thought that modeling the movement of water rights over time and across water source types (surface and ground) would provide planners with insight into the possibilities for certain types of decisions regarding social landscapes, and the impact those same decisions would have on those landscapes. We found that water rights transfer data in New Mexico is too incomplete and inaccurate to use as the basis for the model. Furthermore, because of its lack of accuracy and completeness, water rights ownership was a poor indicator of water and land usage habits and patterns. We also found that commitment among users in the Middle Rio Grande Valley is to an agricultural lifestyle, not to a community or place. This commitment is conditioned primarily by generational cohort and past experience. If conditions warrant, many would be willing to practice the lifestyle elsewhere. A related finding was that sometimes the pressure to sell was not the putative price of the land, but the taxes on the land. These taxes were, in turn, a function of the level of urbanization of the neighborhood. This urbanization impacted the quality of the agricultural lifestyle. The project also yielded some valuable lessons regarding the model development process. A facilitative and collaborative style (rather than a top-down, directive style) was most productive with the inter-disciplinary , inter-institutional team that worked on the project. This allowed for the emergence of a process model which combined small, discipline- and/or task-specific subgroups with larger, integrating team meetings. The project objective was to develop a model that could be used to run test scenarios in which we explored the potential impact of different policy options. We achieved that objective, although not with the level of success or modeling fidelity which we had hoped for. This report only describes very superficially the results of test scenarios, since more complete analysis of scenarios would require more time and effort. Our greatest obstacle in the successful completion of the project was that required data were sparse, of poor quality, or completely nonexistent. Moreover, we found no similar modeling or research efforts taking place at either the state or local level. This leads to a key finding of this project: that state and local policy decisions regarding land use, development, urbanization, and water resource allocation are being made with minimal data and without the benefit of economic or social policy analysis.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nakafuji, Dora; Gouveia, Lauren

This project supports development of the next generation, integrated energy management infrastructure (EMS) able to incorporate advance visualization of behind-the-meter distributed resource information and probabilistic renewable energy generation forecasts to inform real-time operational decisions. The project involves end-users and active feedback from an Utility Advisory Team (UAT) to help inform how information can be used to enhance operational functions (e.g. unit commitment, load forecasting, Automatic Generation Control (AGC) reserve monitoring, ramp alerts) within two major EMS platforms. Objectives include: Engaging utility operations personnel to develop user input on displays, set expectations, test and review; Developing ease of use and timelinessmore » metrics for measuring enhancements; Developing prototype integrated capabilities within two operational EMS environments; Demonstrating an integrated decision analysis platform with real-time wind and solar forecasting information and timely distributed resource information; Seamlessly integrating new 4-dimensional information into operations without increasing workload and complexities; Developing sufficient analytics to inform and confidently transform and adopt new operating practices and procedures; Disseminating project lessons learned through industry sponsored workshops and conferences;Building on collaborative utility-vendor partnership and industry capabilities« less

78 FR 33101 - Notice of Availability of the Record of Decision for the Alta East Wind Project, Kern County...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-03

... turbines, access roads, collector substation, operation and maintenance facility, temporary portable... wind turbines capable of generating up to 153 megawatts. The project site is within the planning....LVRWB11B4520.FX0000] Notice of Availability of the Record of Decision for the Alta East Wind Project, Kern...

75 FR 1408 - Notice of Availability of the Record of Decision for the Lincoln County Land Act Groundwater...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-11

... County Land Act Groundwater Development and Utility Right-of-Way Project, Nevada AGENCY: Bureau of Land... the availability of the Record of Decision (ROD) for the Lincoln County Land Act Groundwater... appeal should also be filed with: Project Manager, Nevada Groundwater Projects Office, Bureau of Land...

Multi Criteria Evaluation Module for RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; Jaboyedoff, Michel; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim

2015-04-01

Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) module is one of the five modules of RiskChanges spatial decision support system. RiskChanges web-based platform aims to analyze changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provides tools for selecting the best risk reduction alternative. It is developed under CHANGES framework (changes-itn.eu) and INCREO project (increo-fp7.eu). MCE tool helps decision makers and spatial planners to evaluate, sort and rank the decision alternatives. The users can choose among different indicators that are defined within the system using Risk and Cost Benefit analysis results besides they can add their own indicators. Subsequently the system standardizes and prioritizes them. Finally, the best decision alternative is selected by using the weighted sum model (WSM). The Application of this work is to facilitate the effect of MCE for analyzing changing risk over the time under different scenarios and future years by adopting a group decision making into practice and comparing the results by numeric and graphical view within the system. We believe that this study helps decision-makers to achieve the best solution by expressing their preferences for strategies under future scenarios. Keywords: Multi-Criteria Evaluation, Spatial Decision Support System, Weighted Sum Model, Natural Hazard Risk Management

Heuristics in Managing Complex Clinical Decision Tasks in Experts’ Decision Making

PubMed Central

Islam, Roosan; Weir, Charlene; Del Fiol, Guilherme

2016-01-01

Background Clinical decision support is a tool to help experts make optimal and efficient decisions. However, little is known about the high level of abstractions in the thinking process for the experts. Objective The objective of the study is to understand how clinicians manage complexity while dealing with complex clinical decision tasks. Method After approval from the Institutional Review Board (IRB), three clinical experts were interviewed the transcripts from these interviews were analyzed. Results We found five broad categories of strategies by experts for managing complex clinical decision tasks: decision conflict, mental projection, decision trade-offs, managing uncertainty and generating rule of thumb. Conclusion Complexity is created by decision conflicts, mental projection, limited options and treatment uncertainty. Experts cope with complexity in a variety of ways, including using efficient and fast decision strategies to simplify complex decision tasks, mentally simulating outcomes and focusing on only the most relevant information. Application Understanding complex decision making processes can help design allocation based on the complexity of task for clinical decision support design. PMID:27275019

Heuristics in Managing Complex Clinical Decision Tasks in Experts' Decision Making.

PubMed

Islam, Roosan; Weir, Charlene; Del Fiol, Guilherme

2014-09-01

Clinical decision support is a tool to help experts make optimal and efficient decisions. However, little is known about the high level of abstractions in the thinking process for the experts. The objective of the study is to understand how clinicians manage complexity while dealing with complex clinical decision tasks. After approval from the Institutional Review Board (IRB), three clinical experts were interviewed the transcripts from these interviews were analyzed. We found five broad categories of strategies by experts for managing complex clinical decision tasks: decision conflict, mental projection, decision trade-offs, managing uncertainty and generating rule of thumb. Complexity is created by decision conflicts, mental projection, limited options and treatment uncertainty. Experts cope with complexity in a variety of ways, including using efficient and fast decision strategies to simplify complex decision tasks, mentally simulating outcomes and focusing on only the most relevant information. Understanding complex decision making processes can help design allocation based on the complexity of task for clinical decision support design.

Final Report: Towards an Emergent Model of Technology Adoption for Accelerating the Diffusion of Residential Solar PV

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rai, Varun

This project sought to enable electric utilities in Texas to accelerate diffusion of residential solar photovoltaic (PV) by systematically identifying and targeting existing barriers to PV adoption. A core goal of the project was to develop an integrated research framework that combines survey research, econometric modeling, financial modeling, and implementation and evaluation of pilot projects to study the PV diffusion system. This project considered PV diffusion as an emergent system, with attention to the interactions between the constituent parts of the PV socio-technical system including: economics of individual decision-making; peer and social influences; behavioral responses; and information and transaction costs.more » We also conducted two pilot projects, which have yielded new insights into behavioral and informational aspects of PV adoption. Finally, this project has produced robust and generalizable results that will provide deeper insights into the technology-diffusion process that will be applicable for the design of utility programs for other technologies such as home-energy management systems and plug-in electric vehicles. When we started this project in 2013 there was little systematic research on characterizing the decision-making process of households interested in adopting PV. This project was designed to fill that research gap by analyzing the PV adoption process from the consumers' decision-making perspective and with the objective to systematically identifying and addressing the barriers that consumers face in the adoption of PV. The two key components of that decision-making process are consumers' evaluation of: (i) uncertainties and non-monetary costs associated with the technology and (ii) the direct monetary cost-benefit. This project used an integrated approach to study both the non-monetary and the monetary components of the consumer decision-making process.« less

[Involving patients, the insured and the general public in healthcare decision making].

PubMed

Mühlbacher, Axel C; Juhnke, Christin

2016-01-01

No doubt, the public should be involved in healthcare decision making, especially when decision makers from politics and self-government agencies are faced with the difficult task of setting priorities. There is a general consensus on the need for a stronger patient centeredness, even in HTA processes, and internationally different ways of public participation are discussed and tested in decision making processes. This paper describes how the public can be involved in different decision situations, and it shows how preference measurement methods are currently being used in an international context to support decision making. It distinguishes between different levels of decision making on health technologies: approval, assessment, pricing, and finally utilization. The range of participation efforts extends from qualitative surveys of patients' needs (Citizen Councils of NICE in the UK) to science-based documentation of quantitative patient preferences, such as in the current pilot projects of the FDA in the US and the EMA at the European level. Possible approaches for the elicitation and documentation of preference structures and trade-offs in relation to alternate health technologies are decision aids, such as multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), that provide the necessary information for weighting and prioritizing decision criteria. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Algorithms for optimizing the treatment of depression: making the right decision at the right time.

PubMed

Adli, M; Rush, A J; Möller, H-J; Bauer, M

2003-11-01

Medication algorithms for the treatment of depression are designed to optimize both treatment implementation and the appropriateness of treatment strategies. Thus, they are essential tools for treating and avoiding refractory depression. Treatment algorithms are explicit treatment protocols that provide specific therapeutic pathways and decision-making tools at critical decision points throughout the treatment process. The present article provides an overview of major projects of algorithm research in the field of antidepressant therapy. The Berlin Algorithm Project and the Texas Medication Algorithm Project (TMAP) compare algorithm-guided treatments with treatment as usual. The Sequenced Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression Project (STAR*D) compares different treatment strategies in treatment-resistant patients.

Milestones for Selection, Characterization, and Analysis of the Performance of a Repository for Spent Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste at Yucca Mountain.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rechard, Robert P.

This report presents a concise history in tabular form of events leading up to site identification in 1978, site selection in 1987, subsequent characterization, and ongoing analysis through 2008 of the performance of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain in southern Nevada. The tabulated events generally occurred in five periods: (1) commitment to mined geologic disposal and identification of sites; (2) site selection and analysis, based on regional geologic characterization through literature and analogous data; (3) feasibility analysis demonstrating calculation procedures and importance of system components, based on rough measures of performance usingmore » surface exploration, waste process knowledge, and general laboratory experiments; (4) suitability analysis demonstrating viability of disposal system, based on environment-specific laboratory experiments, in-situ experiments, and underground disposal system characterization; and (5) compliance analysis, based on completed site-specific characterization. Because the relationship is important to understanding the evolution of the Yucca Mountain Project, the tabulation also shows the interaction between four broad categories of political bodies and government agencies/institutions: (a) technical milestones of the implementing institutions, (b) development of the regulatory requirements and related federal policy in laws and court decisions, (c) Presidential and agency directives and decisions, and (d) critiques of the Yucca Mountain Project and pertinent national and world events related to nuclear energy and radioactive waste.« less

An overview and discussion of the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute's decision aid portfolio.

PubMed

Gayer, Christopher C; Crowley, Matthew J; Lawrence, William F; Gierisch, Jennifer M; Gaglio, Bridget; Williams, John W; Myers, Evan R; Kendrick, Amy; Slutsky, Jean; Sanders, Gillian D

2016-07-01

Decision aids (DAs) help patients make informed healthcare decisions in a manner consistent with their values and preferences. Despite their promise, DAs developed with public research dollars are not being implemented and adopted in real-world patient care settings at a rate consistent with which they are being developed. To appraise the sum of the parts of the portfolio and create a strategic imperative surrounding future funding, the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute (PCORI) tasked the Duke Evidence Synthesis Group with evaluating its DA portfolio. This paper describes PCORI's portfolio of DAs according to the Duke Evidence Synthesis Group's analysis in the context of PCORI's mission and the field of decision science. The results revealed a diversity within PCORI's portfolio of funded DA projects. Findings support the movement toward more rigorous DA development, assessment and maintenance. PCORI's funding priorities related to DAs are clarified and comparative questions of interest are posed.

The Importance Of Integrating Narrative Into Health Care Decision Making.

PubMed

Dohan, Daniel; Garrett, Sarah B; Rendle, Katharine A; Halley, Meghan; Abramson, Corey

2016-04-01

When making health care decisions, patients and consumers use data but also gather stories from family and friends. When advising patients, clinicians consult the medical evidence but also use professional judgment. These stories and judgments, as well as other forms of narrative, shape decision making but remain poorly understood. Furthermore, qualitative research methods to examine narrative are rarely included in health science research. We illustrate how narratives shape decision making and explain why it is difficult but necessary to integrate qualitative research on narrative into the health sciences. We draw on social-scientific insights on rigorous qualitative research and our ongoing studies of decision making by patients with cancer, and we describe new tools and approaches that link qualitative research findings with the predominantly quantitative health science scholarship. Finally, we highlight the benefits of more fully integrating qualitative research and narrative analysis into the medical evidence base and into evidence-based medical practice. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Application of a plume model for decision makers' situation awareness during an outdoor airborne HAZMAT release.

PubMed

Meris, Ronald G; Barbera, Joseph A

2014-01-01

In a large-scale outdoor, airborne, hazardous materials (HAZMAT) incident, such as ruptured chlorine rail cars during a train derailment, the local Incident Commanders and HAZMAT emergency responders must obtain accurate information quickly to assess the situation and act promptly and appropriately. HAZMAT responders must have a clear understanding of key information and how to integrate it into timely and effective decisions for action planning. This study examined the use of HAZMAT plume modeling as a decision support tool during incident action planning in this type of extreme HAZMAT incident. The concept of situation awareness as presented by Endsley's dynamic situation awareness model contains three levels: perception, comprehension, and projection. It was used to examine the actions of incident managers related to adequate data acquisition, current situational understanding, and accurate situation projection. Scientists and engineers have created software to simulate and predict HAZMAT plume behavior, the projected hazard impact areas, and the associated health effects. Incorporating the use of HAZMAT plume projection modeling into an incident action plan may be a complex process. The present analysis used a mixed qualitative and quantitative methodological approach and examined the use and limitations of a "HAZMAT Plume Modeling Cycle" process that can be integrated into the incident action planning cycle. HAZMAT response experts were interviewed using a computer-based simulation. One of the research conclusions indicated the "HAZMAT Plume Modeling Cycle" is a critical function so that an individual/team can be tasked with continually updating the hazard plume model with evolving data, promoting more accurate situation awareness.

Lay and professional stakeholder involvement in scoping palliative care issues: Methods used in seven European countries.

PubMed

Brereton, Louise; Ingleton, Christine; Gardiner, Clare; Goyder, Elizabeth; Mozygemba, Kati; Lysdahl, Kristin Bakke; Tummers, Marcia; Sacchini, Dario; Leppert, Wojciech; Blaževičienė, Aurelija; van der Wilt, Gert Jan; Refolo, Pietro; De Nicola, Martina; Chilcott, James; Oortwijn, Wija

2017-02-01

Stakeholders are people with an interest in a topic. Internationally, stakeholder involvement in palliative care research and health technology assessment requires development. Stakeholder involvement adds value throughout research (from prioritising topics to disseminating findings). Philosophies and understandings about the best ways to involve stakeholders in research differ internationally. Stakeholder involvement took place in seven countries (England, Germany, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway and Poland). Findings informed a project that developed concepts and methods for health technology assessment and applied these to evaluate models of palliative care service delivery. To report on stakeholder involvement in the INTEGRATE-HTA project and how issues identified informed project development. Using stakeholder consultation or a qualitative research design, as appropriate locally, stakeholders in seven countries acted as 'advisors' to aid researchers' decision making. Thematic analysis was used to identify key issues across countries. A total of 132 stakeholders (82 professionals and 50 'lay' people) aged ⩾18 participated in individual face-to-face or telephone interviews, consultation meetings or focus groups. Different stakeholder involvement methods were used successfully to identify key issues in palliative care. A total of 23 issues common to three or more countries informed decisions about the intervention and comparator of interest, sub questions and specific assessments within the health technology assessment. Stakeholders, including patients and families undergoing palliative care, can inform project decision making using various involvement methods according to the local context. Researchers should consider local understandings about stakeholder involvement as views of appropriate and feasible methods vary. Methods for stakeholder involvement, especially consultation, need further development.

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis for the Selection of a Near Road Ambient Air Monitoring Site for the Measurement of Mobile Source Air Toxics

EPA Science Inventory

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) was involved in a legal action concerning the U.S. 95 Widening Project in Las Vegas, Nevada. In that action, the Sierra Club challenged FHWA's and the Nevada Department of Transportation's (DOT) National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) en...

Capital Budgeting Guidelines: How to Decide Whether to Fund a New Dorm or an Upgraded Computer Lab.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Swiger, John; Klaus, Allen

1996-01-01

A process for college and university decision making and budgeting for capital outlays that focuses on evaluating the qualitative and quantitative benefits of each proposed project is described and illustrated. The process provides a means to solicit suggestions from those involved and provide detailed information for cost-benefit analysis. (MSE)

Choices and Challenges: A Qualitative Exploration of Professional Women's Career Patterns

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whitmarsh, Lona; Brown, Donalee; Cooper, Jane; Hawkins-Rodgers, Yolanda; Wentworth, Diane Keyser

2007-01-01

With the rapid changes occurring in the role of work in women's lives, this research project was designed to examine the career planning, career decision making, and work history of women in both female-dominated and gender-neutral careers (U.S. Department of Labor, n.d.-a). A qualitative analysis of structured interviews identified 6 emerging…

Description of inpatient medication management using cognitive work analysis.

PubMed

Pingenot, Alleene Anne; Shanteau, James; Sengstacke, L T C Daniel N

2009-01-01

The purpose of this article was to describe key elements of an inpatient medication system using the cognitive work analysis method of Rasmussen et al (Cognitive Systems Engineering. Wiley Series in Systems Engineering; 1994). The work of nurses and physicians were observed in routine care of inpatients on a medical-surgical unit and attached ICU. Interaction with pharmacists was included. Preoperative, postoperative, and medical care was observed. Personnel were interviewed to obtain information not easily observable during routine work. Communication between healthcare workers was projected onto an abstraction/decomposition hierarchy. Decision ladders and information flow charts were developed. Results suggest that decision making on an inpatient medical/surgical unit or ICU setting is a parallel, distributed process. Personnel are highly mobile and often are working on multiple issues concurrently. In this setting, communication is key to maintaining organization and synchronization for effective care. Implications for research approaches to system and interface designs and decision support for personnel involved in the process are discussed.

Methods to achieve accurate projection of regional and global raster databases

USGS Publications Warehouse

Usery, E.L.; Seong, J.C.; Steinwand, D.R.; Finn, M.P.

2002-01-01

This research aims at building a decision support system (DSS) for selecting an optimum projection considering various factors, such as pixel size, areal extent, number of categories, spatial pattern of categories, resampling methods, and error correction methods. Specifically, this research will investigate three goals theoretically and empirically and, using the already developed empirical base of knowledge with these results, develop an expert system for map projection of raster data for regional and global database modeling. The three theoretical goals are as follows: (1) The development of a dynamic projection that adjusts projection formulas for latitude on the basis of raster cell size to maintain equal-sized cells. (2) The investigation of the relationships between the raster representation and the distortion of features, number of categories, and spatial pattern. (3) The development of an error correction and resampling procedure that is based on error analysis of raster projection.

Data and information integration framework for highway project decision making.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

This report presents a three-tiered framework to integrate data, information, and decision-making in highway projects. The study uses the Jurans Triple Role concept and context graph to illustrate the relationship between data, information, and de...

Watch for pitfalls of discounted cash flow techniques.

PubMed

Chow, C W; McNamee, A H

1991-04-01

Discounted cash flow (DCF) techniques can enhance the effectiveness of a healthcare organization's capital budgeting decisions. But a financial manager unaware of common misapplications of DCF techniques may make capital decisions with a hidden bias against long-term projects, an inaccurate evaluation of options, or inappropriate estimations of expected inflation and risk. Social and psychological factors also can impede effective decisions on projects already introduced.

Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

2013-01-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

Creating Quality Improvement Culture in Public Health Agencies

PubMed Central

Mahanna, Elizabeth; Joly, Brenda; Zelek, Michael; Riley, William; Verma, Pooja; Fisher, Jessica Solomon

2014-01-01

Objectives. We conducted case studies of 10 agencies that participated in early quality improvement efforts. Methods. The agencies participated in a project conducted by the National Association of County and City Health Officials (2007–2008). Case study participants included health directors and quality improvement team leaders and members. We implemented multiple qualitative analysis processes, including cross-case analysis and logic modeling. We categorized agencies according to the extent to which they had developed a quality improvement culture. Results. Agencies were conducting informal quality improvement projects (n = 4), conducting formal quality improvement projects (n = 3), or creating a quality improvement culture (n = 4). Agencies conducting formal quality improvement and creating a quality improvement culture had leadership support for quality improvement, participated in national quality improvement initiatives, had a greater number of staff trained in quality improvement and quality improvement teams that met regularly with decision-making authority. Agencies conducting informal quality improvement were likely to report that accreditation is the major driver for quality improvement work. Agencies creating a quality improvement culture were more likely to have a history of evidence-based decision-making and use quality improvement to address emerging issues. Conclusions. Our findings support previous research and add the roles of national public health accreditation and emerging issues as factors in agencies’ ability to create and sustain a quality improvement culture. PMID:24228680

A New Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Impact and Adaptation in Agricultural Systems (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antle, J. M.; Valdivia, R. O.; Jones, J.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A. C.

2013-12-01

This presentation provides an overview of the new methods developed by researchers in the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for regional climate impact assessment and analysis of adaptation in agricultural systems. This approach represents a departure from approaches in the literature in several dimensions. First, the approach is based on the analysis of agricultural systems (not individual crops) and is inherently trans-disciplinary: it is based on a deep collaboration among a team of climate scientists, agricultural scientists and economists to design and implement regional integrated assessments of agricultural systems. Second, in contrast to previous approaches that have imposed future climate on models based on current socio-economic conditions, this approach combines bio-physical and economic models with a new type of pathway analysis (Representative Agricultural Pathways) to parameterize models consistent with a plausible future world in which climate change would be occurring. Third, adaptation packages for the agricultural systems in a region are designed by the research team with a level of detail that is useful to decision makers, such as research administrators and donors, who are making agricultural R&D investment decisions. The approach is illustrated with examples from AgMIP's projects currently being carried out in Africa and South Asia.

Sexual Behavior, Risk Compensation, and HIV Prevention Strategies Among Participants in the San Francisco PrEP Demonstration Project: A Qualitative Analysis of Counseling Notes.

PubMed

Carlo Hojilla, J; Koester, Kimberly A; Cohen, Stephanie E; Buchbinder, Susan; Ladzekpo, Deawodi; Matheson, Tim; Liu, Albert Y

2016-07-01

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a viable HIV prevention strategy but risk compensation could undermine potential benefits. There are limited data that examine this phenomenon outside of clinical trials. We conducted a qualitative analysis of counseling notes from the San Francisco site of the US PrEP demonstration project to assess how men who have sex with men used PrEP as a prevention strategy and its impact on their sexual practices. Four major themes emerged from our analysis of 130 distinct notes associated with 26 participants. Prevention strategy decision-making was dynamic, often influenced by the context and perceived risk of a sexual encounter. Counselors noted that participants used PrEP in conjunction with other health promotion strategies like condoms, asking about HIV status of their sex partners, and seroadaptation. With few exceptions, existing risk reduction strategies were not abandoned upon initiation of PrEP. Risk-taking behavior was 'seasonal' and fluctuations were influenced by various personal, psychosocial, and health-related factors. PrEP also helped relieve anxiety regarding sex and HIV, particularly among serodiscordant partners. Understanding sexual decision-making and how PrEP is incorporated into existing prevention strategies can help inform future PrEP implementation efforts.

Sexual Behavior, Risk Compensation, and HIV Prevention Strategies Among Participants in the San Francisco PrEP Demonstration Project: A Qualitative Analysis of Counseling Notes

PubMed Central

Hojilla, J. Carlo; Koester, Kimberly A.; Cohen, Stephanie E.; Buchbinder, Susan; Ladzekpo, Deawodi; Matheson, Tim; Liu, Albert Y

2015-01-01

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a viable HIV prevention strategy but risk compensation could undermine potential benefits. There are limited data that examine this phenomenon outside of clinical trials. We conducted a qualitative analysis of counseling notes from the San Francisco site of the US PrEP Demonstration Project to assess how men who have sex with men (MSM) used PrEP as a prevention strategy and its impact on their sexual practices. Four major themes emerged from our analysis of 130 distinct notes associated with 26 participants. Prevention strategy decision-making was dynamic, often influenced by the context and perceived risk of a sexual encounter. Counselors noted that participants used PrEP in conjunction with other health promotion strategies like condoms, asking about HIV status of their sex partners, and seroadaptation. With few exceptions, existing risk reduction strategies were not abandoned upon initiation of PrEP. Risk-taking behavior was ‘seasonal’ and fluctuations were influenced by various personal, psychosocial, and health-related factors. PrEP also helped relieve anxiety regarding sex and HIV, particularly among serodiscordant partners. Understanding sexual decision-making and how PrEP is incorporated into existing prevention strategies can help inform future PrEP implementation efforts. PMID:25835463

A model for making project funding decisions at the National Cancer Institute.

PubMed

Hall, N G; Hershey, J C; Kessler, L G; Stotts, R C

1992-01-01

This paper describes the development of a model for making project funding decisions at The National Cancer Institute (NCI). The American Stop Smoking Intervention Study (ASSIST) is a multiple-year, multiple-site demonstration project, aimed at reducing smoking prevalence. The initial request for ASSIST proposals was answered by about twice as many states as could be funded. Scientific peer review of the proposals was the primary criterion used for funding decisions. However, a modified Delphi process made explicit several criteria of secondary importance. A structured questionnaire identified the relative importance of these secondary criteria, some of which we incorporated into a composite preference function. We modeled the proposal funding decision as a zero-one program, and adjusted the preference function and available budget parametrically to generate many suitable outcomes. The actual funding decision, identified by our model, offers significant advantages over manually generated solutions found by experts at NCI.

Understanding Data Needs for Vulnerability Assessment and Decision Making to Manage Vulnerability of Department of Defense Installations to Climate Change

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-02-01

frequency...................................................................... 81 Figure 46. Return period analysis at Sewell’s Point (across the mouth ...Return period analysis at Sewell’s Point (across the mouth of the James River from both Langley AFB and Fort Eustis with sea level rise projections...a digital elevation model as an input and calculates the water level necessary to fill each grid cell. In other words , the fill tool takes into

Environmental Cost Analysis System (ECAS) Status and Compliance Requirements for EM Consolidated Business Center Contracts - 13204

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sanford, P.C.; Moe, M.A.; Hombach, W.G.

2013-07-01

The Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) has developed a web-accessible database to collect actual cost data from completed EM projects to support cost estimating and analysis. This Environmental Cost Analysis System (ECAS) database was initially deployed in early 2009 containing the cost and parametric data from 77 decommissioning, restoration, and waste management projects completed under the Rocky Flats Closure Project. In subsequent years we have added many more projects to ECAS and now have a total of 280 projects from 8 major DOE sites. This data is now accessible to DOE users through a web-based reportingmore » tool that allows users to tailor report outputs to meet their specific needs. We are using it as a principal resource supporting the EM Consolidated Business Center (EMCBC) and the EM Applied Cost Engineering (ACE) team cost estimating and analysis efforts across the country. The database has received Government Accountability Office review as supporting its recommended improvements in DOE's cost estimating process, as well as review from the DOE Office of Acquisition and Project Management (APM). Moving forward, the EMCBC has developed a Special Contract Requirement clause or 'H-Clause' to be included in all current and future EMCBC procurements identifying the process that contractors will follow to provide DOE their historical project data in a format compatible with ECAS. Changes to DOE O 413.3B implementation are also in progress to capture historical costs as part of the Critical Decision project closeout process. (authors)« less

THE NGA-DOE GRANT TO EXAMINE CRITICAL ISSUES RELATED TO RADIOACTIVE WASTE AND MATERIALS DISPOSITION INVOLVING DOE FACILITIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ann M. Beauchesne

1999-04-30

Through the National Governors' Association (NGA) project ''Critical Issues Related to Radioactive Waste and Materials Disposition Involving DOE Facilities'' NGA brings together Governors' policy advisors, state regulators, and DOE officials to examine critical issues related to the cleanup and operation of DOE nuclear weapons and research facilities. Topics explored through this project include: Decisions involving disposal of mixed, low-level, and transuranic (TRU) waste and disposition of nuclear materials; Decisions involving DOE budget requests and their effect on environmental cleanup and compliance at DOE facilities; Strategies to treat mixed, low-level, and transuranic (TRU) waste and their effect on individual sites inmore » the complex; Changes to the FFCA site treatment plans as a result of proposals in the Department's Accelerating Cleanup: Paths to Closure plan and contractor integration analysis; Interstate waste and materials shipments; and Reforms to existing RCRA and CERCLA regulations/guidance to address regulatory overlap and risks posed by DOE wastes. The overarching theme of this project is to help the Department improve coordination of its major program decisions with Governors' offices and state regulators and to ensure such decisions reflect input from these key state officials and stakeholders. This report summarizes activities conducted during the quarter from February 1, 1999, through April 30, 1999, under the NGA grant. The work accomplished by the NGA project team during the past four months can be categorized as follows: maintained open communication with DOE on a variety of activities and issues within the DOE environmental management complex; maintained communication with NGA Federal Facilities Compliance Task Force members regarding DOE efforts to formulate a configuration for mixed low-level waste and low-level treatment and disposal, external regulation of DOE; and EM Integration activities; and continued to serve as a liaison between the NGA FFCA Task Force states and the Department.« less

THE NGA-DOE GRANT TO EXAMINE CRITICAL ISSUES RELATED TO RADIOACTIVE WASTE AND MATERIALS DISPOSITION INVOLVING DOE FACILITIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ann B. Beauchesne

1998-09-30

Through the National Governors' Association (NGA) project ''Critical Issues Related to Radioactive Waste and Materials Disposition Involving DOE Facilities'' NGA brings together Governors' policy advisors, state regulators, and DOE officials to examine critical issues related to the cleanup and operation of DOE nuclear weapons and research facilities. Topics explored through this project include: (1) Decisions involving disposal of mixed, low-level, and transuranic (TRU) waste and disposition of nuclear materials; (2) Decisions involving DOE budget requests and their effect on environmental cleanup and compliance at DOE facilities; (3) Strategies to treat mixed, low-level, and transuranic (TRU) waste and their effect onmore » individual sites in the complex; (4) Changes to the FFCA site treatment plans as a result of proposals in the Department's Accelerating Cleanup: Paths to Closure plan and contractor integration analysis; (5) Interstate waste and materials shipments; and (6) Reforms to existing RCRA and CERCLA regulations/guidance to address regulatory overlap and risks posed by DOE wastes. The overarching theme of this project is to help the Department improve coordination of its major program decisions with Governors' offices and state regulators and to ensure such decisions reflect input from these key state officials and stakeholders. This report summarizes activities conducted during the quarter from June 1, 1998 through September 30, 1998, under the NGA grant. The work accomplished by the NGA project team during the past four months can be categorized as follows: (1) maintained open communication with DOE on a variety of activities and issues within the DOE environmental management complex; (2) maintained communication with NGA Federal Facilities Compliance Task Force members regarding DOE efforts to formulate a configuration for mixed low-level waste and low-level treatment and disposal, external regulation of DOE; and EM Integration activities; and (3) continued to serve as a liaison between the NGA FFCA Task Force states and the Department.« less

THE NGA-DOE GRANT TO EXAMINE CRITICAL ISSUES RELATED TO RADIOACTIVE WASTE AND MATERIALS DISPOSITION INVOLVING DOE FACILITIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ann M. Beauchesne

1999-07-30

Through the National Governors' Association (NGA) project ''Critical Issues Related to Radioactive Waste and Materials Disposition Involving DOE Facilities'' NGA brings together Governors' policy advisors, state regulators, and DOE officials to examine critical issues related to the cleanup and operation of DOE nuclear weapons and research facilities. Topics explored through this project include: Decisions involving disposal of mixed, low-level, and transuranic (TRU) waste and disposition of nuclear materials; Decisions involving DOE budget requests and their effect on environmental cleanup and compliance at DOE facilities; Strategies to treat mixed, low-level, and transuranic (TRU) waste and their effect on individual sites inmore » the complex; Changes to the FFCA site treatment plans as a result of proposals in the Department's Accelerating Cleanup: Paths to Closure plan and contractor integration analysis; Interstate waste and materials shipments; and Reforms to existing RCRA and CERCLA regulations/guidance to address regulatory overlap and risks posed by DOE wastes. The overarching theme of this project is to help the Department improve coordination of its major program decisions with Governors' offices and state regulators and to ensure such decisions reflect input from these key state officials and stakeholders. This report summarizes activities conducted during the quarter from May 1, 1999, through July 30, 1999, under the NGA grant. The work accomplished by the NGA project team during the past four months can be categorized as follows: maintained open communication with DOE on a variety of activities and issues within the DOE environmental management complex; maintained communication with NGA Federal Facilities Compliance Task Force members regarding DOE efforts to formulate a configuration for mixed low-level waste and low-level treatment and disposal, external regulation of DOE; and continued to facilitate interactions between the states and DOE to develop a foundation for an ongoing substantive relationship between the Governors of key states and Secretary Richardson.« less

THE NGA-DOE GRANT TO EXAMINE CRITICAL ISSUES RELATED TO RADIOACTIVE WASTE AND MATERIALS DISPOSITION INVOLVING DOE FACILITIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ann M. Beauchesne

1999-01-31

Through the National Governors' Association (NGA) project ''Critical Issues Related to Radioactive Waste and Materials Disposition Involving DOE Facilities'' NGA brings together Governors' policy advisors, state regulators, and DOE officials to examine critical issues related to the cleanup and operation of DOE nuclear weapons and research facilities. Topics explored through this project include: (1) Decisions involving disposal of mixed, low-level, and transuranic (TRU) waste and disposition of nuclear materials; (2) Decisions involving DOE budget requests and their effect on environmental cleanup and compliance at DOE facilities; (3) Strategies to treat mixed, low-level, and transuranic (TRU) waste and their effect onmore » individual sites in the complex; (4) Changes to the FFCA site treatment plans as a result of proposals in the Department's Accelerating Cleanup: Paths to Closure plan and contractor integration analysis; (5) Interstate waste and materials shipments; and (6) Reforms to existing RCRA and CERCLA regulations/guidance to address regulatory overlap and risks posed by DOE wastes. The overarching theme of this project is to help the Department improve coordination of its major program decisions with Governors' offices and state regulators and to ensure such decisions reflect input from these key state officials and stakeholders. This report summarizes activities conducted during the quarter from October 1, 1998 through January 31, 1999, under the NGA grant. The work accomplished by the NGA project team during the past four months can be categorized as follows: (1) maintained open communication with DOE on a variety of activities and issues within the DOE environmental management complex; (2) maintained communication with NGA Federal Facilities Compliance Task Force members regarding DOE efforts to formulate a configuration for mixed low-level waste and low-level treatment and disposal, external regulation of DOE; and EM Integration activities; and (3) continued to serve as a liaison between the NGA FFCA Task Force states and the Department.« less

Linking climate projections to performance: A yield-based decision scaling assessment of a large urban water resources system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turner, Sean W. D.; Marlow, David; Ekström, Marie; Rhodes, Bruce G.; Kularathna, Udaya; Jeffrey, Paul J.

2014-04-01

Despite a decade of research into climate change impacts on water resources, the scientific community has delivered relatively few practical methodological developments for integrating uncertainty into water resources system design. This paper presents an application of the "decision scaling" methodology for assessing climate change impacts on water resources system performance and asks how such an approach might inform planning decisions. The decision scaling method reverses the conventional ethos of climate impact assessment by first establishing the climate conditions that would compel planners to intervene. Climate model projections are introduced at the end of the process to characterize climate risk in such a way that avoids the process of propagating those projections through hydrological models. Here we simulated 1000 multisite synthetic monthly streamflow traces in a model of the Melbourne bulk supply system to test the sensitivity of system performance to variations in streamflow statistics. An empirical relation was derived to convert decision-critical flow statistics to climatic units, against which 138 alternative climate projections were plotted and compared. We defined the decision threshold in terms of a system yield metric constrained by multiple performance criteria. Our approach allows for fast and simple incorporation of demand forecast uncertainty and demonstrates the reach of the decision scaling method through successful execution in a large and complex water resources system. Scope for wider application in urban water resources planning is discussed.

Performance evaluation of restaurant food waste and biowaste to biogas pilot projects in China and implications for national policy.

PubMed

De Clercq, Djavan; Wen, Zongguo; Fan, Fei

2017-03-15

The objective of this research was to conduct a performance evaluation of three food waste/biowaste-to-biogas pilot projects across 7 scenarios in China based on multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methodology. The projects ranked included a food waste-biogas project in Beijing, a food waste-biogas project in Suzhou and a co-digestion project producing biomethane in Hainan. The projects were ranked from best to worst based on technical, economic and environmental criteria under the MCDA framework. The results demonstrated that some projects are encountering operational problems. Based on these findings, six national policy recommendations were provided: (1) shift away from capital investment subsidies to performance-based subsidies; (2) re-design feed in tariffs; (3) promote bio-methane and project clustering; (4) improve collection efficiency by incentivizing FW producers to direct waste to biogas projects; (5) incentivize biogas projects to produce multiple outputs; (6) incentivize food waste-based projects to co-digest food waste with other substrates for higher gas output. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

VESTA Project: Phase 0 report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perret, A.

1986-01-01

This report presents the results of technical studies conducted at CNES/PMF/APS between October 1984 and September 1985 on the VESTA project. These preliminary studies were conducted to establish mission feasibility in terms ofthe trajectory and the scientific objectives, and to determine the type of interfaces which will be required with the Soviets and to measure the magnitude of French participation. A joint French-Soviet report recommends that the project enter phase A, and was approved by CNES and INTERCOSMOS in September, 1985. The mission analysis is made for a mid-1991 launch, and a development schedule for an end-1992 launch is suggested. The decision to postpone the mission was made during the course of the study.

Managing the Right Projects: Best Practices to Align Project and Corporate Strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watkins, Bobby

2012-01-01

If there's a human endeavor that exemplifies teamwork, it is space exploration. And that teamwork absolutely cannot happen effectively if the boots on the ground the people doing the work - don't understand how their work aligns with the larger goal. This presentation will discuss some best management practices from NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center that have succeeded in helping employees become informed, engaged and committed to the space agency's important missions. Specific topics include: Alignment Criteria: Linking Projects To Corporate Strategy. Resource Management: Best Practices For Resource Management. Strategic Analysis: Supporting Decision Making In A Changing Environment. Communication Strategies: Best Practices To Communicate Change. Benefits Achieved And Lessons Learned.

Useful Life Prediction for Payload Carrier Hardware

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ben-Arieh, David

2002-01-01

The Space Shuttle has been identified for use through 2020. Payload carrier systems will be needed to support missions through the same time frame. To support the future decision making process with reliable systems, it is necessary to analyze design integrity, identify possible sources of undesirable risk and recognize required upgrades for carrier systems. This project analyzed the information available regarding the carriers and developed the probability of becoming obsolete under different scenarios. In addition, this project resulted in a plan for an improved information system that will improve monitoring and control of the various carriers. The information collected throughout this project is presented in this report as process flow, historical records, and statistical analysis.

17th Chromosome-Centric Human Proteome Project Symposium in Tehran.

PubMed

Meyfour, Anna; Pahlavan, Sara; Sobhanian, Hamid; Salekdeh, Ghasem Hosseini

2018-04-01

This report describes the 17th Chromosome-Centric Human Proteome Project which was held in Tehran, Iran, April 27 and 28, 2017. A brief summary of the symposium's talks including new technical and computational approaches for the identification of novel proteins from non-coding genomic regions, physicochemical and biological causes of missing proteins, and the close interactions between Chromosome- and Biology/Disease-driven Human Proteome Project are presented. A synopsis of decisions made on the prospective programs to maintain collaborative works, share resources and information, and establishment of a newly organized working group, the task force for missing protein analysis are discussed. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A multi-phase network situational awareness cognitive task analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Erbacher, Robert; Frincke, Deborah A.; Wong, Pak C.

Abstract The goal of our project is to create a set of next-generation cyber situational-awareness capabilities with applications to other domains in the long term. The objective is to improve the decision-making process to enable decision makers to choose better actions. To this end, we put extensive effort into making certain that we had feedback from network analysts and managers and understand what their genuine needs are. This article discusses the cognitive task-analysis methodology that we followed to acquire feedback from the analysts. This article also provides the details we acquired from the analysts on their processes, goals, concerns, themore » data and metadata that they analyze. Finally, we describe the generation of a novel task-flow diagram representing the activities of the target user base.« less

A concept analysis of situational awareness in nursing.

PubMed

Fore, Amanda M; Sculli, Gary L

2013-12-01

This article reports an analysis of the concept of situational awareness in nursing. Situational awareness is a fundamental and well-understood concept used to maintain operational safety in high reliability organizations; however, it has not been studied in nursing. Nurses play a critical role in providing vigilance in health care and what they do or fail to do is directly related to patient outcomes. Multiple databases, including PubMed, CINAHL, JSTOR, and Google Scholar, were searched with the term, 'situational awareness'. The primary search, used to identify all uses of the concept, did not employ date criteria. A secondary search for articles measuring situational awareness as an independent or dependent variable was completed using 2009-2011 articles. Concept Analysis. The concept of situational awareness was examined using Walker and Avant's eight step method of analysis. Three defining attributes of situational awareness include perception, comprehension, and projection. Situational awareness is defined as the perception of the elements in the environment in a volume of time and space, the comprehension of their meaning and the projection of their status in the near future. Although situational awareness is related to other terms in nursing, there is increasing recognition that the concept, which is likely a consolidation of the related terms, has an impact on healthcare professionals. Failures in perception, comprehension, and/or projection can significantly reduce the accuracy and appropriateness of patient care decisions. Therefore, as a precursor to decision making, poor or inadequate levels of situational awareness present serious threats to patient safety. Situational awareness needs to be examined in a theoretical context, studied systematically and openly recognized as a key factor in the delivery of safe patient care. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Tethys: A Platform for Water Resources Modeling and Decision Support Apps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, N. R.; Christensen, S. D.; Jones, N.; Nelson, E. J.

2014-12-01

Cloud-based applications or apps are a promising medium through which water resources models and data can be conveyed in a user-friendly environment—making them more accessible to decision-makers and stakeholders. In the context of this work, a water resources web app is a web application that exposes limited modeling functionality for a scenario exploration activity in a structured workflow (e.g.: land use change runoff analysis, snowmelt runoff prediction, and flood potential analysis). The technical expertise required to develop water resources web apps can be a barrier to many potential developers of water resources apps. One challenge that developers face is in providing spatial storage, analysis, and visualization for the spatial data that is inherent to water resources models. The software projects that provide this functionality are non-standard to web development and there are a large number of free and open source software (FOSS) projects to choose from. In addition, it is often required to synthesize several software projects to provide all of the needed functionality. Another challenge for the developer will be orchestrating the use of several software components. Consequently, the initial software development investment required to deploy an effective water resources cloud-based application can be substantial. The Tethys Platform has been developed to lower the technical barrier and minimize the initial development investment that prohibits many scientists and engineers from making use of the web app medium. Tethys synthesizes several software projects including PostGIS for spatial storage, 52°North WPS for spatial analysis, GeoServer for spatial publishing, Google Earth™, Google Maps™ and OpenLayers for spatial visualization, and Highcharts for plotting tabular data. The software selection came after a literature review of software projects being used to create existing earth sciences web apps. All of the software is linked via a Python-powered software development kit (SDK). Tethys developers use the SDK to build their apps and incorporate the needed functionality from the software suite. The presentation will include several apps that have been developed using Tethys to demonstrate its capabilities. Based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. 1135483.

Decision support tools to support the operations of traffic management centers (TMC)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-31

The goal of this project is to develop decision support tools to support traffic management operations based on collected intelligent transportation system (ITS) data. The project developments are in accordance with the needs of traffic management ce...

Palmdale Energy Project; Final Decision; Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) Permit

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA Region 9 is issuing a final decision to grant conditional approval, in accordance with the Clean Air Act, for the construction of a natural gas-fired combined cycle power plant known as the Palmdale Energy Project.

Does Tropical Cyclone Modification Make Sense? A Decision-Analytic Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klima, K.; Morgan, M. G.; Grossmann, I.

2009-12-01

Since the demise of project Stormfury in 1983, little attention has been devoted to the possibility of intentionally modifying tropical cyclones (TC). However, following Hurricane Katrina and three other Category 5 hurricanes (Emily, Rita, and Wilma), which together resulted in at least 2,280 deaths and over $120-billion in damages (Blake et al., 2007), the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has recently begun to support an effort to identify and evaluate hurricane mitigation strategies through Project HURRMIT ([http://www.ofcm.noaa.gov/ihc09/Presentations/Session10/s10-01Woodley.ppt]). Using a decision analytic framing and FEMA's HAZUS-MH MR3 damage model (http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/]), this paper asks, how sure must one be that an intervention will reduce TC damages before choosing to undertake a program of modification? The analysis is formulated in probabilistic terms, and assesses net benefits. In contrast to a much earlier application of decision analysis to TC-modification (Howard et al., 1972) , this work uses census data on the value of property at risk, and prior distributions on changing storm behavior based on data from hurricanes approaching the east coast of Florida since 1953. Even before considering both issues of liability that may arise from the fact that a modified storm is no longer "an act of God" as well as unforeseen environmental consequences, our results suggest that while TC modification techniques will likely alter TC behavior, one will have to be significantly more confident of the predictability and effectiveness of modification methods before their use can be justified. This work is supported by the Climate Decision Making Center through a cooperative agreement between the National Science Foundation (SES-0345798) and Carnegie Mellon University.

Communication with U.S. federal decision makers : a primer with notes on the use of computer models as a means of communication.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Webb, Erik Karl; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll

2009-10-01

This document outlines ways to more effectively communicate with U.S. Federal decision makers by outlining the structure, authority, and motivations of various Federal groups, how to find the trusted advisors, and how to structure communication. All three branches of Federal governments have decision makers engaged in resolving major policy issues. The Legislative Branch (Congress) negotiates the authority and the resources that can be used by the Executive Branch. The Executive Branch has some latitude in implementation and prioritizing resources. The Judicial Branch resolves disputes. The goal of all decision makers is to choose and implement the option that best fitsmore » the needs and wants of the community. However, understanding the risk of technical, political and/or financial infeasibility and possible unintended consequences is extremely difficult. Primarily, decision makers are supported in their deliberations by trusted advisors who engage in the analysis of options as well as the day-to-day tasks associated with multi-party negotiations. In the best case, the trusted advisors use many sources of information to inform the process including the opinion of experts and if possible predictive analysis from which they can evaluate the projected consequences of their decisions. The paper covers the following: (1) Understanding Executive and Legislative decision makers - What can these decision makers do? (2) Finding the target audience - Who are the internal and external trusted advisors? (3) Packaging the message - How do we parse and integrate information, and how do we use computer simulation or models in policy communication?« less

The SIMRAND methodology - Simulation of Research and Development Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miles, R. F., Jr.

1984-01-01

In research and development projects, a commonly occurring management decision is concerned with the optimum allocation of resources to achieve the project goals. Because of resource constraints, management has to make a decision regarding the set of proposed systems or tasks which should be undertaken. SIMRAND (Simulation of Research and Development Projects) is a methodology which was developed for aiding management in this decision. Attention is given to a problem description, aspects of model formulation, the reduction phase of the model solution, the simulation phase, and the evaluation phase. The implementation of the considered approach is illustrated with the aid of an example which involves a simplified network of the type used to determine the price of silicon solar cells.

A decision tool to guide the ethics review of a challenging breed of emerging genomic projects.

PubMed

Joly, Yann; So, Derek; Osien, Gladys; Crimi, Laura; Bobrow, Martin; Chalmers, Don; Wallace, Susan E; Zeps, Nikolajs; Knoppers, Bartha

2016-08-01

Recent projects conducted by the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) have raised the important issue of distinguishing quality assurance (QA) activities from research in the context of genomics. Research was historically defined as a systematic effort to expand a shared body of knowledge, whereas QA was defined as an effort to ascertain whether a specific project met desired standards. However, the two categories increasingly overlap due to advances in bioinformatics and the shift toward open science. As few ethics review policies take these changes into account, it is often difficult to determine the appropriate level of review. Mislabeling can result in unnecessary burdens for the investigators or, conversely, in underestimation of the risks to participants. Therefore, it is important to develop a consistent method of selecting the review process for genomics and bioinformatics projects. This paper begins by discussing two case studies from the ICGC, followed by a literature review on the distinction between QA and research and a comparative analysis of ethics review policies from Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia. These results are synthesized into a novel two-step decision tool for researchers and policymakers, which uses traditional criteria to sort clearly defined activities while requiring the use of actual risk levels to decide more complex cases.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

In the Bear Creek Valley Watershed Remedial Investigation, the Boneyard/Burnyard was identified as the source of the largest releases of uranium into groundwater and surface water in Bear Creek Valley. The proposed action for remediation of this site is selective excavation and removal of source material and capping of the remainder of the site. The schedule for this action has been accelerated so that this is the first remedial action planned to be implemented in the Bear Creek Valley Record of Decision. Additional data needs to support design of the remedial action were identified at a data quality objectives meetingmore » held for this project. Sampling at the Boneyard/Burnyard will be conducted through the use of a phased approach. Initial or primary samples will be used to make in-the-field decisions about where to locate follow-up or secondary samples. On the basis of the results of surface water, soil, and groundwater analysis, up to six test pits will be dug. The test pits will be used to provide detailed descriptions of source materials and bulk samples. This document sets forth the requirements and procedures to protect the personnel involved in this project. This document also contains the health and safety plan, quality assurance project plan, waste management plan, data management plan, implementation plan, and best management practices plan for this project as appendices.« less

Designing Colorectal Cancer Screening Decision Support: A Cognitive Engineering Enterprise.

PubMed

Militello, Laura G; Saleem, Jason J; Borders, Morgan R; Sushereba, Christen E; Haverkamp, Donald; Wolf, Steven P; Doebbeling, Bradley N

2016-03-01

Adoption of clinical decision support has been limited. Important barriers include an emphasis on algorithmic approaches to decision support that do not align well with clinical work flow and human decision strategies, and the expense and challenge of developing, implementing, and refining decision support features in existing electronic health records (EHRs). We applied decision-centered design to create a modular software application to support physicians in managing and tracking colorectal cancer screening. Using decision-centered design facilitates a thorough understanding of cognitive support requirements from an end user perspective as a foundation for design. In this project, we used an iterative design process, including ethnographic observation and cognitive task analysis, to move from an initial design concept to a working modular software application called the Screening & Surveillance App. The beta version is tailored to work with the Veterans Health Administration's EHR Computerized Patient Record System (CPRS). Primary care providers using the beta version Screening & Surveillance App more accurately answered questions about patients and found relevant information more quickly compared to those using CPRS alone. Primary care providers also reported reduced mental effort and rated the Screening & Surveillance App positively for usability.

Designing Colorectal Cancer Screening Decision Support: A Cognitive Engineering Enterprise

PubMed Central

Militello, Laura G.; Saleem, Jason J.; Borders, Morgan R.; Sushereba, Christen E.; Haverkamp, Donald; Wolf, Steven P.; Doebbeling, Bradley N.

2016-01-01

Adoption of clinical decision support has been limited. Important barriers include an emphasis on algorithmic approaches to decision support that do not align well with clinical work flow and human decision strategies, and the expense and challenge of developing, implementing, and refining decision support features in existing electronic health records (EHRs). We applied decision-centered design to create a modular software application to support physicians in managing and tracking colorectal cancer screening. Using decision-centered design facilitates a thorough understanding of cognitive support requirements from an end user perspective as a foundation for design. In this project, we used an iterative design process, including ethnographic observation and cognitive task analysis, to move from an initial design concept to a working modular software application called the Screening & Surveillance App. The beta version is tailored to work with the Veterans Health Administration’s EHR Computerized Patient Record System (CPRS). Primary care providers using the beta version Screening & Surveillance App more accurately answered questions about patients and found relevant information more quickly compared to those using CPRS alone. Primary care providers also reported reduced mental effort and rated the Screening & Surveillance App positively for usability. PMID:26973441

Decision support model for assessing archaeological survey needs for bridge replacement projects in Iowa.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-01-01

The Bridges Decision Support Model is a geographic information system (GIS) that assembles existing : data on archaeological sites, surveys, and their geologic contexts to assess the risk of bridge replacement : projects encountering 13,000- to 150-y...

Using Argumentation Theory to Identify the Challenges of Shared Decision-Making when the Doctor and the Patient have a Difference of Opinion

PubMed Central

Zanini, Claudia A.; Rubinelli, Sara

2012-01-01

This paper aims to identify the challenges in the implementation of shared decision-making (SDM) when the doctor and the patient have a difference of opinion. It analyses the preconditions of the resolution of this difference of opinion by using an analytical and normative framework known in the field of argumentation theory as the ideal model of critical discussion. This analysis highlights the communication skills and attitudes that both doctors and patients must apply in a dispute resolution-oriented communication. Questions arise over the methods of empowerment of doctors and patients in these skills and attitudes as the preconditions of SDM. Overall, the paper highlights aspects in which research is needed to design appropriate programmes of training, education and support in order to equip doctors and patients with the means to successfully engage in shared decision-making. Acknowledgements the authors would like to thank the Swiss National Science Foundation for funding this project (project number: PDFMP1_132523. Enhancing doctor-patient argumentation through the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF). Insights from a study in the field of chronic pain). PMID:25170461

From climate-change spaghetti to climate-change distributions for 21st Century California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.

2005-01-01

The uncertainties associated with climate-change projections for California are unlikely to disappear any time soon, and yet important long-term decisions will be needed to accommodate those potential changes. Projection uncertainties have typically been addressed by analysis of a few scenarios, chosen based on availability or to capture the extreme cases among available projections. However, by focusing on more common projections rather than the most extreme projections (using a new resampling method), new insights into current projections emerge: (1) uncertainties associated with future greenhouse-gas emissions are comparable with the differences among climate models, so that neither source of uncertainties should be neglected or underrepresented; (2) twenty-first century temperature projections spread more, overall, than do precipitation scenarios; (3) projections of extremely wet futures for California are true outliers among current projections; and (4) current projections that are warmest tend, overall, to yield a moderately drier California, while the cooler projections yield a somewhat wetter future. The resampling approach applied in this paper also provides a natural opportunity to objectively incorporate measures of model skill and the likelihoods of various emission scenarios into future assessments.

Choosing Healthcare Options by Involving Canada's Elderly: a protocol for the CHOICE realist synthesis project on engaging older persons in healthcare decision-making

PubMed Central

Stolee, Paul; Elliott, Jacobi; McNeil, Heather; Boscart, Veronique; Heckman, George A; Hutchinson, Rebecca; Hedley, Margaret; Glouberman, Sholom; Judd, Maria

2015-01-01

Introduction While patient and citizen engagement has been recognised as a crucial element in healthcare reform, limited attention has been paid to how best to engage seniors—the fastest growing segment of the population and the largest users of the healthcare system. To improve the healthcare services for this population, seniors and their families need to be engaged as active partners in healthcare decision-making, research and planning. This synthesis aims to understand the underlying context and mechanisms needed to achieve meaningful engagement of older adults in healthcare decision-making, research and planning. Methods and analysis The CHOICE Knowledge Synthesis Project: Choosing Healthcare Options by Involving Canada's Elderly aims to address this issue by synthesising current knowledge on patient, family, and caregiver engagement. A realist synthesis will support us to learn from other patient and citizen engagement initiatives, from previous research, and from seniors, families and caregivers themselves. The synthesis will guide development or adaptation of a framework, leading to the development of best practice guidelines and recommendations for engagement of older people and their families and caregivers in clinical decision-making, healthcare delivery, planning and research. Ethics and dissemination The components of this protocol involving consultation with patients or caregivers have received ethics clearance from the University of Waterloo, Office of Research Ethics (ORE#19094). After completion of the project, we will amalgamate the information collected into a knowledge synthesis report which will include best practice guidelines and recommendations for patient, family and caregiver engagement in clinical and health system planning and research contexts. Results Will be further disseminated to citizens, clinicians, researchers and policymakers with the help of our partners. Trial registration number CRD42015024749. PMID:26534730

A Cost and Performance System (CAPS) in a Federal agency

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huseonia, W. F.; Penton, P. G.

1994-01-01

Cost and Performance System (CAPS) is an automated system used from the planning phase through implementation to analysis and documentation. Data is retrievable or available for analysis of cost versus performance anomalies. CAPS provides a uniform system across intra- and international elements. A common system is recommended throughout an entire cost or profit center. Data can be easily accumulated and aggregated into higher levels of tracking and reporting of cost and performance.The level and quality of performance or productivity is indicated in the CAPS model and its process. The CAPS model provides the necessary decision information and insight to the principal investigator/project engineer for a successful project management experience. CAPS provides all levels of management with the appropriate detailed level of data.

Systems Analysis Approach for the NASA Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kimmel, William M.

2011-01-01

This conference paper describes the current systems analysis approach being implemented for the Environmentally Responsible Aviation Project within the Integrated Systems Research Program under the NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate. The scope and purpose of these systems studies are introduced followed by a methodology overview. The approach involves both top-down and bottoms-up components to provide NASA s stakeholders with a rationale for the prioritization and tracking of a portfolio of technologies which enable the future fleet of aircraft to operate with a simultaneous reduction of aviation noise, emissions and fuel-burn impacts to our environment. Examples of key current results and relevant decision support conclusions are presented along with a forecast of the planned analyses to follow.

75 FR 65650 - Notice of Availability of the Record of Decision for the Calico Solar Project and Associated...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-26

..., the BLM is also amending the CDCA Plan to allow for the siting of a solar energy power plant on the... Calico Solar Project into the Energy Production and Utility Corridors Element of the CDCA Plan. The BLM's..., LVRAM109AA03] Notice of Availability of the Record of Decision for the Calico Solar Project and Associated...

The Global Oscillation Network Group site survey. 1: Data collection and analysis methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hill, Frank; Fischer, George; Grier, Jennifer; Leibacher, John W.; Jones, Harrison B.; Jones, Patricia P.; Kupke, Renate; Stebbins, Robin T.

1994-01-01

The Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) Project is planning to place a set of instruments around the world to observe solar oscillations as continuously as possible for at least three years. The Project has now chosen the sites that will comprise the network. This paper describes the methods of data collection and analysis that were used to make this decision. Solar irradiance data were collected with a one-minute cadence at fifteen sites around the world and analyzed to produce statistics of cloud cover, atmospheric extinction, and transparency power spectra at the individual sites. Nearly 200 reasonable six-site networks were assembled from the individual stations, and a set of statistical measures of the performance of the networks was analyzed using a principal component analysis. An accompanying paper presents the results of the survey.

Beyond Box Checking: Toward Sound Environmental Justice Analyses for Informed Decision-Making and Meaningful Tribal Consultation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emanuel, R. E.; Rivers, L., III; Blank, G. B.

2017-12-01

Environmental justice analyses are mandatory components of federal environmental reviews in the United States. They are intended to help regulators and developers identify and address disproportionate impacts on poor and/or minority populations. In many cases, however, environmental justice analyses are treated as "box checking" exercises that employ weak or flawed designs unable to detect disparate impacts on vulnerable populations. We use a recent example of an environmental review led by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to demonstrate how flawed analyses mask disproportionate impacts on poor and/or minority populations. In this case, regulators conducted a flawed environmental justice analysis for the proposed Atlantic Coast Pipeline concluding no disproportionate impacts on vulnerable populations. We reanalyze data from the project's environmental impact statement and provide a more accurate assessment of impacts on Native Americans in North Carolina. Specifically, we show that Native Americans make up a disproportionately large fraction of residents along the proposed pipeline route (13.2%) compared to their representation in the affected counties (6.2%) or in the state at large (1.2%). We discuss implications of the original, flawed analysis for tribes representing nearly 30,000 Native Americans along the project route, and we discuss efforts by affected tribes to have their unique perspectives incorporated into the decision-making process. We conclude with general recommendations for designing environmental justice analyses that serve as useful tools to guide environmental decision-making and consultation with affected groups.

Building Technological Capability within Satellite Programs in Developing Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Danielle Renee

Global participation in space activity is growing as satellite technology matures and spreads. Countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America are creating or reinvigorating national satellite programs. These countries are building local capability in space through technological learning. They sometimes pursue this via collaborative satellite development projects with foreign firms that provide training. This phenomenon of collaborative satellite development projects is poorly understood by researchers of technological learning and technology transfer. The approach has potential to facilitate learning, but there are also challenges due to misaligned incentives and the tacit nature of the technology. Perspectives from literature on Technological Learning, Technology Transfer, Complex Product Systems and Product Delivery provide useful but incomplete insight for decision makers in such projects. This work seeks a deeper understanding of capability building through collaborative technology projects by conceiving of the projects as complex, socio-technical systems with architectures. The architecture of a system is the assignment of form to execute a function along a series of dimensions. The research questions explore the architecture of collaborative satellite projects, the nature of capability building during such projects, and the relationship between architecture and capability building. The research design uses inductive, exploratory case studies to investigate six collaborative satellite development projects. Data collection harnesses international field work driven by interviews, observation, and documents. The data analysis develops structured narratives, architectural comparison and capability building assessment. The architectural comparison reveals substantial variation in project implementation, especially in the areas of project initiation, technical specifications of the satellite, training approaches and the supplier selection process. The individual capability building assessment shows that most trainee engineers gradually progressed from no experience with satellites through theoretical training to supervised experience; a minority achieved independent experience. At the organizational level, the emerging space organizations achieved high levels of autonomy in project definition and satellite operation, but they were dependent on foreign firms for satellite design, manufacture, test and launch. The case studies can be summarized by three archetypal projects defined as "Politically Pushed," "Structured," and "Risk Taking." Countries in the case studies tended to start in a Politically Pushed mode, and then moved into either Structured or Risk Taking mode. Decision makers in emerging satellite programs can use the results of this dissertation to consider the broad set of architectural options for capability building. Future work will continue to probe how specific architectural decisions impact capability building outcomes in satellite projects and other technologies. (Copies available exclusively from MIT Libraries, libraries.mit.edu/docs - docs@mit.edu)

Electric Propulsion Requirements and Mission Analysis Under NASA's In-Space Propulsion Technology Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dudzinski, Leonard a.; Pencil, Eric J.; Dankanich, John W.

2007-01-01

The In-Space Propulsion Technology Project (ISPT) is currently NASA's sole investment in electric propulsion technologies. This project is managed at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) for the NASA Headquarters Science Mission Directorate (SMD). The objective of the electric propulsion project area is to develop near-term and midterm electric propulsion technologies to enhance or enable future NASA science missions while minimizing risk and cost to the end user. Systems analysis activities sponsored by ISPT seek to identify future mission applications in order to quantify mission requirements, as well as develop analytical capability in order to facilitate greater understanding and application of electric propulsion and other propulsion technologies in the ISPT portfolio. These analyses guide technology investments by informing decisions and defining metrics for technology development to meet identified mission requirements. This paper discusses the missions currently being studied for electric propulsion by the ISPT project, and presents the results of recent electric propulsion (EP) mission trades. Recent ISPT systems analysis activities include: an initiative to standardize life qualification methods for various electric propulsion systems in order to retire perceived risk to proposed EP missions; mission analysis to identify EP requirements from Discovery, New Frontiers, and Flagship classes of missions; and an evaluation of system requirements for radioisotope-powered electric propulsion. Progress and early results of these activities is discussed where available.

A Value Analysis of Lean Processes in Target Value Design and Integrated Project Delivery.

PubMed

Nanda, Upali; K Rybkowski, Zofia; Pati, Sipra; Nejati, Adeleh

2017-04-01

To investigate what key stakeholders consider to be the advantages and the opportunities for improvement in using lean thinking and tools in the integrated project delivery (IPD) process. A detailed literature review was followed by case study of a Lean-IPD project. Interviews with members of the project leadership team, focus groups with the integrated team as well as the design team, and an online survey of all stakeholders were conducted. Statistical analysis and thematic content analysis were used to analyze the data, followed by a plus-delta analysis. (1) Learning is a large, implicit benefit of Lean-IPD that is not currently captured by any success metric; (2) the cardboard mock-up was the most successful lean strategy; (3) although a collaborative project, the level of influence of different stakeholder groups was perceived to be different by different stakeholders; (4) overall, Lean-IPD was rated as better than traditional design-bid-build methods; and (5) opportunities for improvement reported were increase in accurate cost estimating, more efficient use of time, perception of imbalance of control/influence, and need for facilitation (which represents different points of view). While lean tools and an IPD method are preferred to traditional design-bid-build methods, the perception of different stakeholders varies and more work needs to be done to allow a truly shared decision-making model. Learning was identified as one of the biggest advantages.

LORS. Learning Oriented Reality Structure...Or How to Keep Your Sanity and Have Fun Besides in All Those Crazy Meetings!

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hollis, Joseph W.; And Others

The LORS technique is a combination of several techniques such as role projection, simulation, psychodrama, feedback, value clarification, role reversal, dramatization, decision making, process analysis, and others. The significant difference is that, when the techniques are used together, each often undergoes changes to the point that the effect…

An Analysis of a Computerized System for Managing Curriculum Decisions and Tracking Student Progress in a Home-Based Pre-School Education Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lutz, John E.; And Others

The degree of success of the computerized Child-Based Information System (CBIS) was analyzed in two areas--presenting, delivering, and managing a developmental curriculum; and recording, filing, and monitoring child tracking data, including requirements for Individualized Education Plans (IEP's). Preschool handicapped and high-risk children and…

Advising a Bus Company on Number of Needed Buses: How High-School Physics Students' Deal With a "Complex Problem"?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Balukovic, Jasmina; Slisko, Josip; Hadzibegovic, Zalkida

2011-01-01

Since 2003, international project PISA evaluates 15-year old students in solving problems that include "decision taking", "analysis and design of systems" and "trouble-shooting". This article presents the results of a pilot research conducted with 215 students from first to fourth grade of a high school in Sarajevo…

Demographic projection of high-elevation white pines infected with white pine blister rust: a nonlinear disease model

Treesearch

S. G. Field; A. W. Schoettle; J. G. Klutsch; S. J. Tavener; M. F. Antolin

2012-01-01

Matrix population models have long been used to examine and predict the fate of threatened populations. However, the majority of these efforts concentrate on long-term equilibrium dynamics of linear systems and their underlying assumptions and, therefore, omit the analysis of transience. Since management decisions are typically concerned with the short term (

Network Analysis of Beliefs about the Scientific Enterprise: A Comparison of Scientists, Middle School Science Teachers and Eighth-Grade Science Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peters-Burton, Erin; Baynard, Liz R.

2013-01-01

An understanding of the scientific enterprise is useful because citizens need to make systematic, rational decisions about projects involving scientific endeavors and technology, and a clearer understanding of scientific epistemology is beneficial because it could encourage more public engagement with science. The purpose of this study was to…

Financial management of a hospice program.

PubMed

Simione, Robert J; Simione, Kathleen A

2002-07-01

Agencies interested in starting hospice programs or maximizing the benefits of existing programs need to implement and maintain accurate and effective internal cost accounting systems. Once established, a cost accounting system provides the administrators of the hospice program with information to prepare budget projections, perform break-even analysis, and develop other reports to assist in making sound business decisions to ensure success.

Family and Community Studies (FACS) Fourth Interim Report, Phase I and Activities and Timelines for Phase II.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Espinoza, Renato; And Others

Discussed in this paper is a preliminary analysis of findings from data gathered during the first phase of a research project exploring the processes whereby the nature of the mother's occupation affects her family life, especially (1) her partnership in decisions about housework, child care and education and (2) the negotiation of the allocation…

The South Carolina Title V Program in Perspective: Three Models of Purposive Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jacob, Nelson L.; And Others

The utility of Rothman's three ideal types of social action as applied to community issues and Extension agents were explored via analysis of condensed case study materials describing decisions and activities surrounding a specific issue in the target county of a Title V (Rural Development Act of 1972) Project in South Carolina. The three Rothman…

Quality management for space systems in ISRO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satish, S.; Selva Raju, S.; Nanjunda Swamy, T. S.; Kulkarni, P. L.

2009-11-01

In a little over four decades, the Indian Space Program has carved a niche for itself with the unique application driven program oriented towards National development. The end-to-end capability approach of the space projects in the country call for innovative practices and procedures in assuring the quality and reliability of space systems. The System Reliability (SR) efforts initiated at the start of the projects continue during the entire life cycle of the project encompassing design, development, realisation, assembly, testing and integration and during launch. Even after the launch, SR groups participate in the on-orbit evaluation of transponders in communication satellites and camera systems in remote sensing satellites. SR groups play a major role in identification, evaluation and inculcating quality practices in work centres involved in the fabrication of mechanical, electronics and propulsion systems required for Indian Space Research Organization's (ISRO's) launch vehicle and spacecraft projects. Also the reliability analysis activities like prediction, assessment and demonstration as well as de-rating analysis, Failure Mode Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) and worst-case analysis are carried out by SR groups during various stages of project realisation. These activities provide the basis for project management to take appropriate techno-managerial decisions to ensure that the required reliability goals are met. Extensive test facilities catering to the needs of the space program has been set up. A system for consolidating the experience and expertise gained for issue of standards called product assurance specifications to be used in all ISRO centres has also been established.

[The inclusion of health in environmental impact studies: case report of a coal-fired power plant in Ceará State].

PubMed

Rigotto, Raquel Maria

2009-01-01

The study discusses the inclusion of health in the evaluation of environmental impacts to allow actors potentially involved in decision-making to determine the need and technological and geographic adequacy of projects ahead of implementation. The point of departure was a request from the Public Attorney to the Federal University of Ceará to analyze the project of a coal-fired power plant to be built within the Port of Pecém Industrial Compound in Ceará State, Brazil. The methodology included a description of the social and historical context of the area, a bibliographical study of health and environmental impacts and dialogues with affected communities, followed by an analysis of state environmental guidelines for this type of enterprise. The results shows the main categories of analysis identified and proposed additions to current regulations intended to anticipate relations between production processes, the environment and an uneven distribution of health impacts. Besides, it also assesses the need to advance the development of the approach in order to subsidize and democratize decision-making processes closer to actual circumstances in the present and near future.

Quantifying the Value of Downscaled Climate Model Information for Adaptation Decisions: When is Downscaling a Smart Decision?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terando, A. J.; Wootten, A.; Eaton, M. J.; Runge, M. C.; Littell, J. S.; Bryan, A. M.; Carter, S. L.

2015-12-01

Two types of decisions face society with respect to anthropogenic climate change: (1) whether to enact a global greenhouse gas abatement policy, and (2) how to adapt to the local consequences of current and future climatic changes. The practice of downscaling global climate models (GCMs) is often used to address (2) because GCMs do not resolve key features that will mediate global climate change at the local scale. In response, the development of downscaling techniques and models has accelerated to aid decision makers seeking adaptation guidance. However, quantifiable estimates of the value of information are difficult to obtain, particularly in decision contexts characterized by deep uncertainty and low system-controllability. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify the additional value that decision makers could expect if research investments are directed towards developing new downscaled climate projections. As a proof of concept we focus on a real-world management problem: whether to undertake assisted migration for an endangered tropical avian species. We also take advantage of recently published multivariate methods that account for three vexing issues in climate impacts modeling: maximizing climate model quality information, accounting for model dependence in ensembles of opportunity, and deriving probabilistic projections. We expand on these global methods by including regional (Caribbean Basin) and local (Puerto Rico) domains. In the local domain, we test whether a high resolution (2km) dynamically downscaled GCM reduces the multivariate error estimate compared to the original coarse-scale GCM. Initial tests show little difference between the downscaled and original GCM multivariate error. When propagated through to a species population model, the Value of Information analysis indicates that the expected utility that would accrue to the manager (and species) if this downscaling were completed may not justify the cost compared to alternative actions.

The challenge of obtaining information necessary for multi-criteria decision analysis implementation: the case of physiotherapy services in Canada

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background As fiscal constraints dominate health policy discussions across Canada and globally, priority-setting exercises are becoming more common to guide the difficult choices that must be made. In this context, it becomes highly desirable to have accurate estimates of the value of specific health care interventions. Economic evaluation is a well-accepted method to estimate the value of health care interventions. However, economic evaluation has significant limitations, which have lead to an increase in the use of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). One key concern with MCDA is the availability of the information necessary for implementation. In the Fall 2011, the Canadian Physiotherapy Association embarked on a project aimed at providing a valuation of physiotherapy services that is both evidence-based and relevant to resource allocation decisions. The framework selected for this project was MCDA. We report on how we addressed the challenge of obtaining some of the information necessary for MCDA implementation. Methods MCDA criteria were selected and areas of physiotherapy practices were identified. The building up of the necessary information base was a three step process. First, there was a literature review for each practice area, on each criterion. The next step was to conduct interviews with experts in each of the practice areas to critique the results of the literature review and to fill in gaps where there was no or insufficient literature. Finally, the results of the individual interviews were validated by a national committee to ensure consistency across all practice areas and that a national level perspective is applied. Results Despite a lack of research evidence on many of the considerations relevant to the estimation of the value of physiotherapy services (the criteria), sufficient information was obtained to facilitate MCDA implementation at the local level. Conclusions The results of this research project serve two purposes: 1) a method to obtain information necessary to implement MCDA is described, and 2) the results in terms of information on the benefits provided by each of the twelve areas of physiotherapy practice can be used by decision-makers as a starting point in the implementation of MCDA at the local level. PMID:23688138

Multi-criteria decision analysis using hydrological indicators for decision support - a conceptual framework.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butchart-Kuhlmann, Daniel; Kralisch, Sven; Meinhardt, Markus; Fleischer, Melanie

2017-04-01

Assessing the quantity and quality of water available in water stressed environments under various potential climate and land-use changes is necessary for good water and environmental resources management and governance. Within the region covered by the Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL) project, such areas are common. One goal of the SASSCAL project is to develop and provide an integrated decision support system (DSS) with which decision makers (DMs) within a given catchment can obtain objective information regarding potential changes in water flow quantity and timing. The SASSCAL DSS builds upon existing data storage and distribution capability, through the SASSCAL Information System (IS), as well as the J2000 hydrological model. Using output from validated J2000 models, the SASSCAL DSS incorporates the calculation of a range of hydrological indicators based upon Indicators of Hydrological Alteration/Environmental Flow Components (IHA/EFC) calculated for a historic time series (pre-impact) and a set of model simulations based upon a selection of possible climate and land-use change scenarios (post-impact). These indicators, obtained using the IHA software package, are then used as input for a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) undertaken using the open source diviz software package. The results of these analyses will provide DMs with an indication as to how various hydrological indicators within a catchment may be altered under different future scenarios, as well providing a ranking of how each scenario is preferred according to different DM preferences. Scenarios are represented through a combination of model input data and parameter settings in J2000, and preferences are represented through criteria weighting in the MCDA. Here, the methodology is presented and applied to the J2000 Luanginga model results using a set of hypothetical decision maker preference values as input for an MCDA based on the PROMETHEE II outranking method. Future work on the SASSCAL DSS will entail automation of this process, as well as its application to other hydrological models and land-use and/or climate change scenarios.

Systematic design for trait introgression projects.

PubMed

Cameron, John N; Han, Ye; Wang, Lizhi; Beavis, William D

2017-10-01

Using an Operations Research approach, we demonstrate design of optimal trait introgression projects with respect to competing objectives. We demonstrate an innovative approach for designing Trait Introgression (TI) projects based on optimization principles from Operations Research. If the designs of TI projects are based on clear and measurable objectives, they can be translated into mathematical models with decision variables and constraints that can be translated into Pareto optimality plots associated with any arbitrary selection strategy. The Pareto plots can be used to make rational decisions concerning the trade-offs between maximizing the probability of success while minimizing costs and time. The systematic rigor associated with a cost, time and probability of success (CTP) framework is well suited to designing TI projects that require dynamic decision making. The CTP framework also revealed that previously identified 'best' strategies can be improved to be at least twice as effective without increasing time or expenses.

Advanced Interval Management: A Benefit Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Timer, Sebastian; Peters, Mark

2016-01-01

This document is the final report for the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC)- sponsored task order 'Possible Benefits for Advanced Interval Management Operations.' Under this research project, Architecture Technology Corporation performed an analysis to determine the maximum potential benefit to be gained if specific Advanced Interval Management (AIM) operations were implemented in the National Airspace System (NAS). The motivation for this research is to guide NASA decision-making on which Interval Management (IM) applications offer the most potential benefit and warrant further research.

Assessment of Graph Databases as a Viable Materiel Solution for the Army’s Dynamic Force Structure (DFS) Portal Implementation

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-03-30

information : Francisco L. Loaiza-Lemos, Project Leader floaiza@ida.org, 703-845-687 Margaret E. Myers, Director, Information Technology and Systems...analysis is aligned with the goals and objectives of the Department of Defense (DoD) as expressed in its Global Force Management Data Initiative...the previous phases of the analysis and how can they help inform the decision process for determining the optimal mix needed to implement the planned

Research Design for an Automated Behavioral Intelligence (ABI) Project

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-05-14

resolution of immediate short range problems to attainment of ultimate millenial goals. In specifying 1-15 KAPPA @ SSTEMJI INC. CNJ (%.J U C Ul 41I -o0...to be pursued, and of what perceptions are held by the foreign decision-makers. It should be possible through retrospective analysis to build a rich ...retrospective analysis should be able to provide a relatively rich data base as to what kinds of change may occur as the result of given types of

The Establishment of a Management Information Systems Research Center at the Naval Postgraduate School

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-09-01

Project WP 88-03 GDSS Technology in Practice: A Study D. Straub R. Beauclair WP 88-04 Interaction Analysis in GDSS Research: I. Zigurs Description of an...03 GDSS Technology in Practice: A Study (D. Straub and R. Beauclair ) 4. WP 88-04 Interaction Analysis in GDSS Research: Description of an Experience...Implementing an Information Architecture," Data Base, forthcoming. 25 Straub, D. W. and R. A. Beauclair . "A New Dimension to Decision Support

Funding Based on Needs? A Study on the Use of Needs Assessment Data by a Major Humanitarian Health Assistance Donor in its Decisions to Allocate Funds

PubMed Central

Olin, Emma; von Schreeb, Johan

2014-01-01

Background: International humanitarian assistance is essential for disaster-affected populations, particularly in resource scarce settings. To target such assistance, needs assessments are required. According to internationally endorsed principles, donor governments should provide funding for humanitarian assistance based on need. Aim: The aim of this study is to explore a major donor’s use of needs assessment data in decision-making for allocations of funds for health-related humanitarian assistance contributions. Setting: This is a case study of the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida), a major and respected international donor of humanitarian assistance. Methods: To explore Sida’s use of needs assessment data in practice for needs-based allocations, we reviewed all decision documents and assessment memoranda for humanitarian assistance contributions for 2012 using content analysis; this was followed by interviews with key personnel at Sida. Results: Our document analysis found that needs assessment data was not systematically included in Sida’s assessment memoranda and decision documents. In the interviews, we observed various descriptions of the concept of needs assessments, the importance of contextual influences as well as previous collaborations with implementing humanitarian assistance organizations. Our findings indicate that policies guiding funding decisions on humanitarian assistance need to be matched with available needs assessment data and that terminologies and concepts have to be clearly defined. Conclusion: Based on the document analysis and the interviews, it is unclear how well Sida used needs assessment data for decisions to allocate funds. However, although our observations show that needs assessments are seldom used in decision making, Sida’s use of needs assessments has improved compared to a previous study. To improve project funds allocations based on needs assessment data, it will be critical to develop distinct frameworks for allocation distributions based on needs assessment and clear definitions, measurements and interpretations of needs. Key words: Needs assessment, humanitarian assistance, disasters, donor decision-making PMID:24894417

Development of Distributed Research Center for analysis of regional climatic and environmental changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordov, E.; Shiklomanov, A.; Okladnikov, I.; Prusevich, A.; Titov, A.

2016-11-01

We present an approach and first results of a collaborative project being carried out by a joint team of researchers from the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems, Russia and Earth Systems Research Center UNH, USA. Its main objective is development of a hardware and software platform prototype of a Distributed Research Center (DRC) for monitoring and projecting of regional climatic and environmental changes in the Northern extratropical areas. The DRC should provide the specialists working in climate related sciences and decision-makers with accurate and detailed climatic characteristics for the selected area and reliable and affordable tools for their in-depth statistical analysis and studies of the effects of climate change. Within the framework of the project, new approaches to cloud processing and analysis of large geospatial datasets (big geospatial data) inherent to climate change studies are developed and deployed on technical platforms of both institutions. We discuss here the state of the art in this domain, describe web based information-computational systems developed by the partners, justify the methods chosen to reach the project goal, and briefly list the results obtained so far.

2D Hydrodynamic Based Logic Modeling Tool for River Restoration Decision Analysis: A Quantitative Approach to Project Prioritization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandrowski, D.; Lai, Y.; Bradley, N.; Gaeuman, D. A.; Murauskas, J.; Som, N. A.; Martin, A.; Goodman, D.; Alvarez, J.

2014-12-01

In the field of river restoration sciences there is a growing need for analytical modeling tools and quantitative processes to help identify and prioritize project sites. 2D hydraulic models have become more common in recent years and with the availability of robust data sets and computing technology, it is now possible to evaluate large river systems at the reach scale. The Trinity River Restoration Program is now analyzing a 40 mile segment of the Trinity River to determine priority and implementation sequencing for its Phase II rehabilitation projects. A comprehensive approach and quantitative tool has recently been developed to analyze this complex river system referred to as: 2D-Hydrodynamic Based Logic Modeling (2D-HBLM). This tool utilizes various hydraulic output parameters combined with biological, ecological, and physical metrics at user-defined spatial scales. These metrics and their associated algorithms are the underpinnings of the 2D-HBLM habitat module used to evaluate geomorphic characteristics, riverine processes, and habitat complexity. The habitat metrics are further integrated into a comprehensive Logic Model framework to perform statistical analyses to assess project prioritization. The Logic Model will analyze various potential project sites by evaluating connectivity using principal component methods. The 2D-HBLM tool will help inform management and decision makers by using a quantitative process to optimize desired response variables with balancing important limiting factors in determining the highest priority locations within the river corridor to implement restoration projects. Effective river restoration prioritization starts with well-crafted goals that identify the biological objectives, address underlying causes of habitat change, and recognizes that social, economic, and land use limiting factors may constrain restoration options (Bechie et. al. 2008). Applying natural resources management actions, like restoration prioritization, is essential for successful project implementation (Conroy and Peterson, 2013). Evaluating tradeoffs and examining alternatives to improve fish habitat through optimization modeling is not just a trend but rather the scientific strategy by which management needs embrace and apply in its decision framework.

75 FR 19670 - Notice of Availability of the Record of Decision for the I-65 to US 31W Access Improvement Final...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-15

...)] Notice of Availability of the Record of Decision for the I-65 to US 31W Access Improvement Final... implement the I-65 to US 31W Access Improvement project in Warren County, Kentucky. The Division... US 31W Access Improvement project can be viewed and downloaded from the project Web site at http...

Propulsion Airframe Aeroacoustics Technology Evaluation and Selection Using a Multi-Attribute Decision Making Process and Non-Deterministic Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burg, Cecile M.; Hill, Geoffrey A.; Brown, Sherilyn A.; Geiselhart, Karl A.

2004-01-01

The Systems Analysis Branch at NASA Langley Research Center has investigated revolutionary Propulsion Airframe Aeroacoustics (PAA) technologies and configurations for a Blended-Wing-Body (BWB) type aircraft as part of its research for NASA s Quiet Aircraft Technology (QAT) Project. Within the context of the long-term NASA goal of reducing the perceived aircraft noise level by a factor of 4 relative to 1997 state of the art, major configuration changes in the propulsion airframe integration system were explored with noise as a primary design consideration. An initial down-select and assessment of candidate PAA technologies for the BWB was performed using a Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM) process consisting of organized brainstorming and decision-making tools. The assessments focused on what effect the PAA technologies had on both the overall noise level of the BWB and what effect they had on other major design considerations such as weight, performance and cost. A probabilistic systems analysis of the PAA configurations that presented the best noise reductions with the least negative impact on the system was then performed. Detailed results from the MADM study and the probabilistic systems analysis will be published in the near future.

Distortionary effects of a production-sharing fiscal system in a sequential modular offshore petroleum project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neves de Campos, Thiago

This research examines the distortionary effects of a discovered and undeveloped sequential modular offshore project under five different designs for a production-sharing agreement (PSA). The model differs from previous research by looking at the effect of taxation from the perspective of a host government, where the objective is to maximize government utility over government revenue generated by the project and the non-pecuniary benefits to society. This research uses Modern Asset Pricing (MAP) theory, which is able to provide a good measure of the asset value accruing to various stakeholders in the project combined with the optimal decision rule for the development of the investment opportunity. Monte Carlo simulation was also applied to incorporate into the model the most important sources of risk associated with the project and to account for non-linearity in the cash flows. For a complete evaluation of how the fiscal system affects the project development, an investor's behavioral model was constructed, incorporating three operational decisions: investment timing, capacity size and early abandonment. The model considers four sources of uncertainty that affect the project value and the firm's optimal decision: the long run oil price and short-run deviations from that price, cost escalation and the reservoir recovery rate. The optimizations outcomes show that all fiscal systems evaluated produce distortion over the companies' optimal decisions, and companies adjust their choices to avoid taxation in different ways according to the fiscal system characteristics. Moreover, it is revealed that fiscal systems with tax provisions that try to capture additional project profits based on production profitability measures leads to stronger distortions in the project investment and output profile. It is also shown that a model based on a fixed percentage rate is the system that creates the least distortion. This is because companies will be subjected to the same government share of profit oil independently of any operational decision which they can make to change the production profile to evade taxation.

Application of life cycle thinking in multidisciplinary multistakeholder contexts for cross-sectoral planning and implementation of sustainable development projects.

PubMed

Thabrew, Lanka; Ries, Robert

2009-07-01

Development planning and implementation is a multifaceted and multiscale task mainly because of the involvement of multiple stakeholders across sectors and disciplines. Even though top-down sectoral planning is commonly practiced, bottom-up cross-sectoral planning involving all relevant stakeholders in a transdisciplinary learning environment has been recognized as a better option, especially if the goal is to drive development projects toward sustainable implementation (Rowe and Fudge 2003; Müller et al. 2005; Global Development Research Center 2008). Even though many planning approaches have this goal, there are limited decision frameworks that are suitable for achieving consensus among stakeholders from multiple disciplines with sectoral objectives and priorities. In most instances, the upstream and downstream effects of development decisions are not thoroughly investigated or communicated with the relevant stakeholders, strongly affecting cross-sectoral integration in the real world (Wiek, Brundiers, et al. 2006). This article presents methodological aspects of developing a stakeholder based life cycle assessment framework (SBLCA) for upstream-downstream decision analysis in a multistakeholder development planning context. The applicability of the framework is demonstrated using simple examples extracted from a pilot case study conducted in Sri Lanka for sustainable posttsunami reconstruction at a village scale. The applicability of SBLCA in specific planning stages, how it promotes transdisciplinary learning and cross-sectoral stakeholder integration in phases of project cycles, and how local stakeholders can practice life cycle thinking in their village development planning and implementation are discussed.

Towards a Fuzzy Bayesian Network Based Approach for Safety Risk Analysis of Tunnel-Induced Pipeline Damage.

PubMed

Zhang, Limao; Wu, Xianguo; Qin, Yawei; Skibniewski, Miroslaw J; Liu, Wenli

2016-02-01

Tunneling excavation is bound to produce significant disturbances to surrounding environments, and the tunnel-induced damage to adjacent underground buried pipelines is of considerable importance for geotechnical practice. A fuzzy Bayesian networks (FBNs) based approach for safety risk analysis is developed in this article with detailed step-by-step procedures, consisting of risk mechanism analysis, the FBN model establishment, fuzzification, FBN-based inference, defuzzification, and decision making. In accordance with the failure mechanism analysis, a tunnel-induced pipeline damage model is proposed to reveal the cause-effect relationships between the pipeline damage and its influential variables. In terms of the fuzzification process, an expert confidence indicator is proposed to reveal the reliability of the data when determining the fuzzy probability of occurrence of basic events, with both the judgment ability level and the subjectivity reliability level taken into account. By means of the fuzzy Bayesian inference, the approach proposed in this article is capable of calculating the probability distribution of potential safety risks and identifying the most likely potential causes of accidents under both prior knowledge and given evidence circumstances. A case concerning the safety analysis of underground buried pipelines adjacent to the construction of the Wuhan Yangtze River Tunnel is presented. The results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed FBN approach and its application potential. The proposed approach can be used as a decision tool to provide support for safety assurance and management in tunnel construction, and thus increase the likelihood of a successful project in a complex project environment. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Wisdom within: unlocking the potential of big data for nursing regulators.

PubMed

Blumer, L; Giblin, C; Lemermeyer, G; Kwan, J A

2017-03-01

This paper explores the potential for incorporating big data in nursing regulators' decision-making and policy development. Big data, commonly described as the extensive volume of information that individuals and agencies generate daily, is a concept familiar to the business community but is only beginning to be explored by the public sector. Using insights gained from a recent research project, the College and Association of Registered Nurses of Alberta, in Canada is creating an organizational culture of data-driven decision-making throughout its regulatory and professional functions. The goal is to enable the organization to respond quickly and profoundly to nursing issues in a rapidly changing healthcare environment. The evidence includes a review of the Learning from Experience: Improving the Process of Internationally Educated Nurses' Applications for Registration (LFE) research project (2011-2016), combined with a literature review on data-driven decision-making within nursing and healthcare settings, and the incorporation of big data in the private and public sectors, primarily in North America. This paper discusses experience and, more broadly, how data can enhance the rigour and integrity of nursing and health policy. Nursing regulatory bodies have access to extensive data, and the opportunity to use these data to inform decision-making and policy development by investing in how it is captured, analysed and incorporated into decision-making processes. Understanding and using big data is a critical part of developing relevant, sound and credible policy. Rigorous collection and analysis of big data supports the integrity of the evidence used by nurse regulators in developing nursing and health policy. © 2016 International Council of Nurses.

Decision Analysis Tools for Volcano Observatories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hincks, T. H.; Aspinall, W.; Woo, G.

2005-12-01

Staff at volcano observatories are predominantly engaged in scientific activities related to volcano monitoring and instrumentation, data acquisition and analysis. Accordingly, the academic education and professional training of observatory staff tend to focus on these scientific functions. From time to time, however, staff may be called upon to provide decision support to government officials responsible for civil protection. Recognizing that Earth scientists may have limited technical familiarity with formal decision analysis methods, specialist software tools that assist decision support in a crisis should be welcome. A review is given of two software tools that have been under development recently. The first is for probabilistic risk assessment of human and economic loss from volcanic eruptions, and is of practical use in short and medium-term risk-informed planning of exclusion zones, post-disaster response, etc. A multiple branch event-tree architecture for the software, together with a formalism for ascribing probabilities to branches, have been developed within the context of the European Community EXPLORIS project. The second software tool utilizes the principles of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for evidence-based assessment of volcanic state and probabilistic threat evaluation. This is of practical application in short-term volcano hazard forecasting and real-time crisis management, including the difficult challenge of deciding when an eruption is over. An open-source BBN library is the software foundation for this tool, which is capable of combining synoptically different strands of observational data from diverse monitoring sources. A conceptual vision is presented of the practical deployment of these decision analysis tools in a future volcano observatory environment. Summary retrospective analyses are given of previous volcanic crises to illustrate the hazard and risk insights gained from use of these tools.

Prioritization of engineering support requests and advanced technology projects using decision support and industrial engineering models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tavana, Madjid

1995-01-01

The evaluation and prioritization of Engineering Support Requests (ESR's) is a particularly difficult task at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) -- Shuttle Project Engineering Office. This difficulty is due to the complexities inherent in the evaluation process and the lack of structured information. The evaluation process must consider a multitude of relevant pieces of information concerning Safety, Supportability, O&M Cost Savings, Process Enhancement, Reliability, and Implementation. Various analytical and normative models developed over the past have helped decision makers at KSC utilize large volumes of information in the evaluation of ESR's. The purpose of this project is to build on the existing methodologies and develop a multiple criteria decision support system that captures the decision maker's beliefs through a series of sequential, rational, and analytical processes. The model utilizes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), subjective probabilities, the entropy concept, and Maximize Agreement Heuristic (MAH) to enhance the decision maker's intuition in evaluating a set of ESR's.

Career Choices: Reducing Sex-Role Stereotyping in Careers. A Model Career Decision-Making Program to Reduce the Effects of Sex-Role Stereotyping in the Career Choices of Senior High Students. Final Project Performance Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, Jody

A model career decision-making program to reduce the effects of sex-role stereotyping in career choices of senior high school students was conducted at Columbine High School (Lakewood, Colorado). Project goals included the following: (1) to provide students with self-awareness and career-decision-making activities designed to broaden options these…

The Course Development Plan: Macro-Level Decisions and Micro-Level Processes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Franker, Karen; James, Dennis

2016-01-01

A key step in distance learning project management is the creation of a course development plan. The plan should account for decisions related to materials, curriculum, delivery methods, staffing, technology applications, resources, reporting lines, and project management--issues that may require administrator involvement and support, particularly…

PRA and Conceptual Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, Diana; Fuqua, Bryan; Wilson, Paul

2013-01-01

Once a project obtains approval, decision makers have to consider a variety of alternative paths for completing the project and meeting the project objectives. How decisions are made involves a variety of elements including: cost, experience, current technology, ideologies, politics, future needs and desires, capabilities, manpower, timing, available information, and for many ventures management needs to assess the elements of risk versus reward. The use of high level Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Models during conceptual design phases provides management with additional information during the decision making process regarding the risk potential for proposed operations and design prototypes. The methodology can be used as a tool to: 1) allow trade studies to compare alternatives based on risk, 2) determine which elements (equipment, process or operational parameters) drives the risk, and 3) provide information to mitigate or eliminate risks early in the conceptual design to lower costs. Creating system models using conceptual design proposals and generic key systems based on what is known today can provide an understanding of the magnitudes of proposed systems and operational risks and facilitates trade study comparisons early in the decision making process. Identifying the "best" way to achieve the desired results is difficult, and generally occurs based on limited information. PRA provides a tool for decision makers to explore how some decisions will affect risk before the project is committed to that path, which can ultimately save time and money.

NASA Space Radiation Risk Project: Overview and Recent Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blattnig, Steve R.; Chappell, Lori J.; George, Kerry A.; Hada, Megumi; Hu, Shaowen; Kidane, Yared H.; Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Kovyrshina, Tatiana; Norman, Ryan B.; Nounu, Hatem N.;

Lessons Learned from Applications of a Climate Change Decision Tree toWater System Projects in Kenya and Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, P. A.; Bonzanigo, L.; Taner, M. U.; Wi, S.; Yang, Y. C. E.; Brown, C.

2015-12-01

The Decision Tree Framework developed for the World Bank's Water Partnership Program provides resource-limited project planners and program managers with a cost-effective and effort-efficient, scientifically defensible, repeatable, and clear method for demonstrating the robustness of a project to climate change. At the conclusion of this process, the project planner is empowered to confidently communicate the method by which the vulnerabilities of the project have been assessed, and how the adjustments that were made (if any were necessary) improved the project's feasibility and profitability. The framework adopts a "bottom-up" approach to risk assessment that aims at a thorough understanding of a project's vulnerabilities to climate change in the context of other nonclimate uncertainties (e.g., economic, environmental, demographic, political). It helps identify projects that perform well across a wide range of potential future climate conditions, as opposed to seeking solutions that are optimal in expected conditions but fragile to conditions deviating from the expected. Lessons learned through application of the Decision Tree to case studies in Kenya and Nepal will be presented, and aspects of the framework requiring further refinement will be described.

Systems analysis - a new paradigm and decision support tools for the water framework directive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruen, M.

2007-06-01

In the early days of Systems Analysis the focus was on providing tools for optimisation, modelling and simulation for use by experts. Now there is a recognition of the need to develop and disseminate tools to assist in making decisions, negotiating compromises and communicating preferences that can easily be used by stakeholders without the need for specialist training. The Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires public participation and thus provides a strong incentive for progress in this direction. This paper places the new paradigm in the context of the classical one and discusses some of the new approaches which can be used in the implementation of the WFD. These include multi-criteria decision support methods suitable for environmental problems, adaptive management, cognitive mapping, social learning and cooperative design and group decision-making. Concordance methods (such as ELECTRE) and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) are identified as multi-criteria methods that can be readily integrated into Decision Support Systems (DSS) that deal with complex environmental issues with very many criteria, some of which are qualitative. The expanding use of the new paradigm provides an opportunity to observe and learn from the interaction of stakeholders with the new technology and to assess its effectiveness. This is best done by trained sociologists fully integrated into the processes. The WINCOMS research project is an example applied to the implementation of the WFD in Ireland.

Integrative sensing and prediction of urban water for sustainable cities (iSPUW)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seo, D. J.; Fang, N. Z.; Yu, X.; Zink, M.; Gao, J.; Kerkez, B.

2014-12-01

We describe a newly launched project in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex (DFW) area to develop a cyber-physical prototype system that integrates advanced sensing, modeling and prediction of urban water, to support its early adoption by a spectrum of users and stakeholders, and to educate a new generation of future sustainability scientists and engineers. The project utilizes the very high-resolution precipitation and other sensing capabilities uniquely available in DFW as well as crowdsourcing and cloud computing to advance understanding of the urban water cycle and to improve urban sustainability from transient shocks of heavy-to-extreme precipitation under climate change and urbanization. All available water information from observations and models will be fused objectively via advanced data assimilation to produce the best estimate of the state of the uncertain system. Modeling, prediction and decision support tools will be developed in the ensemble framework to increase the information content of the analysis and prediction and to support risk-based decision making.

Risk Evaluation for Identification and Intervention in Dual Use Research of Concern (DURC) for International Biological R&D Activity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Katherine A.; DeMenno, Mercy; Hoffman, Matthew John

This report summarizes the work performed as part of a Laboratory Directed Research and Development project focused on evaluating and mitigating risk associated with biological dual use research of concern. The academic and scientific community has identified the funding stage as the appropriate place to intervene and mitigate risk, so the framework developed here uses a portfolio-level approach and balances biosafety and biosecurity risks, anticipated project benefits, and available mitigations to identify the best available investment strategies subject to cost constraints. The modeling toolkit was designed for decision analysis for dual use research of concern, but is flexible enough tomore » support a wide variety of portfolio-level funding decisions where risk/benefit tradeoffs are involved. Two mathematical optimization models with two solution methods are included to accommodate stakeholders with varying levels of certainty about priorities between metrics. An example case study is presented.« less

HELIOS Third Joint Working Group Meeting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ousley, Gilbert; Kutzer, Ants

1970-01-01

During the past six months since the Second Helios Joint Working Group Meeting held 27-30 April 1970 at Goddard Space Flight Center, the TDS Sub-Group supported the Helios Project Office and the other Sub-Groups in the timely disposition of action items and the dissemination of information pertinent to the development of interface documentation. Of particular importance during this time period was the Project's decision to incorporate a single-channel telemetry system design aboard the spacecraft. The TDS Sub-Group participated actively in the process that led to this decision. Still under active study with TDS participation is the pending Project Office decision regarding the incorporation of a ranging capability within the telecommunications design. The TDS Sub-Group assisted the Mission Analysis and Operations Sub-Group in establishment of a study effort concerning the Near-Earth Sequence of Events from launch to launch plus 8 hours. This study, which will provide valuable data for the spacecraft telecommunications design, will include participation by the Experiment, Launch Vehicle, Spacecraft, as well as the TDS and MA&O Sub-Groups. Also during the past 6-month period, the TDS, in conjunction with the Spacecraft Sub-Group, initiated activity to develop the Helios Spacecraft/TDS Compatibility Test Plans and Procedures. Activity concerning the foregoing interface discussions has been and will continue to be based upon the "TDS Estimated Capabilities Document for the Helios Missions" (613-1), and the "DSN/Flight Project Interface Design Handbook" (810-5). These will continue to be considered TDS controlling documents until specific Helios Project/TDS interface documentation is generated and signed off by the respective parties. In addition to the above, the DSN continued the Helios Trainee Program with seven GfW/DFVLR trainees in residence at JPL. Two trainees will complete their year's residency concurrent with the Third Helios Joint Working Group Meeting, while four new trainees are expected to arrive following the Third Helios Joint Working Group Meeting. These and other activities are reported in detail in the paragraphs that follow.

Effective Decision Maker-Scientist Engagement:Climate Change Vulnerability Analysis of California's Water System to Using Decision Scaling.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwarz, A. M.; Ray, P.; Brown, C.; Wi, S.

2016-12-01

For nearly 2 years the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR) has been working with the University of Massachusetts Amherst (UMass) to evaluate climate change vulnerabilities to the California State Water Project. Working cooperatively, the team has developed tools and methods to employ a decision scaling approach to CDWR's existing water system model (CalSim-II/CalLite 3.0). This presentation will discuss how and why this partnership came to be, the co-production model the team has developed to share expertise, the new understanding of the system that has been gained through the process, and current and future efforts to influence planning and investments based on the findings of the work. This cooperative decision-maker-with-scientist engagement is unique in that CDWR has not outsourced the application of the science to their systems, and instead has worked directly with UMass researchers to develop the process, produce results, and interpret findings. Further, CDWR staff has worked with UMass researchers to present results in ways that are more useable and actionable for decision-makers. As will be shown, many of these graphics allow the team to use the science differently to improve decision making.

Application of decision science to resilience management in Jamaica Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eaton, Mitchell; Fuller, Angela K.; Johnson, Fred A.; Hare, M. P.; Stedman, Richard C.; Sanderson, E.W.; Solecki, W. D.; Waldman, J.R.; Paris, A. S.

2016-01-01

This book highlights the growing interest in management interventions designed to enhance the resilience of the Jamaica Bay socio-ecological system. Effective management, whether the focus is on managing biological processes or human behavior or (most likely) both, requires decision makers to anticipate how the managed system will respond to interventions (i.e., via predictions or projections). In systems characterized by many interacting components and high uncertainty, making probabilistic predictions is often difficult and requires careful thinking not only about system dynamics, but also about how management objectives are specified and the analytic method used to select the preferred action(s). Developing a clear statement of the problem(s) and articulation of management objectives is often best achieved by including input from managers, scientists and other stakeholders affected by the decision through a process of joint problem framing (Marcot and others 2012; Keeney and others 1990). Using a deliberate, coherent and transparent framework for deciding among management alternatives to best meet these objectives then ensures a greater likelihood for successful intervention. Decision science provides the theoretical and practical basis for developing this framework and applying decision analysis methods for making complex decisions under uncertainty and risk.

Medical Device Plug-and-Play Interoperability Standards & Technology Leadership

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-10-01

official Department of the Army position, policy or decision unless so designated by other documentation. REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved...biomedical engineering students completed their senior design project on the X-Ray / Ventilator Use Case. We worked closely with the students to...Supporting Medical Device Adverse Event Analysis in an Interoperable Clinical Environment: Design of a Data Logging and Playback System,” Publication in

The role of strategic forest inventories in aiding land management decision-making: Examples from the U.S

Treesearch

W. Keith Moser; Renate Bush; John D. Shaw; Mark H. Hansen; Mark D. Nelson

2010-01-01

A major challenge for today’s resource managers is the linking of standand landscape-scale dynamics. The U.S. Forest Service has made major investments in programs at both the stand- (national forest project) and landscape/regional (Forest Inventory and Analysis [FIA] program) levels. FIA produces the only comprehensive and consistent statistical information on the...

Identifying environmental features for land management decisions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1982-01-01

The major accomplishments of the Center for Remote Sensing and Cartography are outlined. The analysis and inventory of the Parker Mountain rangeland and the use of multitemporal data to study aspen succession stages are discussed. New and continuing projects are also described including a Salt Lake County land use study, Wasatch-Cache riparian study, and Humboldt River riparian habitat study. Finally, progress in digital processing techniques is reported.

Use of technical and economic analysis for optimizing technology selection and remedial design for contaminated sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hardisty, P.E.; Brown, A.

1996-12-01

The decision to remediate a contaminated site can be seen from the macroeconomic and microeconomic viewpoints. Macroeconomics can be used to plan and account for the overall cost of pollution as part of a firm`s production, and thus make overall decisions on the real cost of pollution and the level of clean-up which may be called for. Valuation of damaged resources, option values and intrinsic worth is an important part of this process. Once the decision to remediate has been taken, the question becomes how best to remediate. Microeconomic analysis deals with providing efficient allocative decisions for reaching specified goals.more » it is safe to say that cost is one of the single most important factors in site clean-up decision making. A basic rule of remediation is often taken to be the maximization of contaminant mass removed per dollar spent. However, remediation may also be governed by other objectives and constraints. In some situations, minimization of time, rather than cost, could be the constraint. Or perhaps the objective could be to achieve a set level of clean-up for the lowest possible cost, even if a large program would result in unit-cost reductions. Evaluation of the economics of a clean-up project is directly linked to the objectives of the site owner, and the constraints within which the remediation is to be performed. Economic analysis of remedial options for containment of a 350,000 L hydrocarbon spill migrating through fractured rock into a river in Alberta, Canada, clear direction to the site owner.« less

Applicability of aquifer impact models to support decisions at CO 2 sequestration sites

DOE PAGES

Keating, Elizabeth; Bacon, Diana; Carroll, Susan; ...

2016-07-25

The National Risk Assessment Partnership has developed a suite of tools to assess and manage risk at CO 2 sequestration sites. This capability includes polynomial or look-up table based reduced-order models (ROMs) that predict the impact of CO 2 and brine leaks on overlying aquifers. The development of these computationally-efficient models and the underlying reactive transport simulations they emulate has been documented elsewhere (Carroll et al., 2014a; Carroll et al., 2014b; Dai et al., 2014 ; Keating et al., 2016). Here in this paper, we seek to demonstrate applicability of ROM-based analysis by considering what types of decisions and aquifermore » types would benefit from the ROM analysis. We present four hypothetical examples where applying ROMs, in ensemble mode, could support decisions during a geologic CO 2 sequestration project. These decisions pertain to site selection, site characterization, monitoring network evaluation, and health impacts. In all cases, we consider potential brine/CO 2 leak rates at the base of the aquifer to be uncertain. We show that derived probabilities provide information relevant to the decision at hand. Although the ROMs were developed using site-specific data from two aquifers (High Plains and Edwards), the models accept aquifer characteristics as variable inputs and so they may have more broad applicability. We conclude that pH and TDS predictions are the most transferable to other aquifers based on the analysis of the nine water quality metrics (pH, TDS, 4 trace metals, 3 organic compounds). Guidelines are presented for determining the aquifer types for which the ROMs should be applicable.« less

Working with South Florida County Planners to Understand and Mitigate Uncertain Climate Risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knopman, D.; Groves, D. G.; Berg, N.

2017-12-01

This talk describes a novel approach for evaluating climate change vulnerabilities and adaptations in Southeast Florida to support long-term resilience planning. The work is unique in that it combines state-of-the-art hydrologic modeling with the region's long-term land use and transportation plans to better assess the future climate vulnerability and adaptations for the region. Addressing uncertainty in future projections is handled through the use of decisionmaking under deep uncertainty methods. Study findings, including analysis of key tradeoffs, were conveyed to the region's stakeholders through an innovative web-based decision support tool. This project leverages existing groundwater models spanning Miami-Dade and Broward Counties developed by the USGS, along with projections of land use and asset valuations for Miami-Dade and Broward County planning agencies. Model simulations are executed on virtual cloud-based servers for a highly scalable and parallelized platform. Groundwater elevations and the saltwater-freshwater interface and intrusion zones from the integrated modeling framework are analyzed under a wide range of long-term climate futures, including projected sea level rise and precipitation changes. The hydrologic hazards are then combined with current and future land use and asset valuation projections to estimate assets at risk across the range of futures. Lastly, an interactive decision support tool highlights the areas with critical climate vulnerabilities; distinguishes between vulnerability due to new development, increased climate hazards, or both; and provides guidance for adaptive management and development practices and decisionmaking in Southeast Florida.

Community action against asthma: examining the partnership process of a community-based participatory research project.

PubMed

Parker, Edith A; Israel, Barbara A; Williams, Melina; Brakefield-Caldwell, Wilma; Lewis, Toby C; Robins, Thomas; Ramirez, Erminia; Rowe, Zachary; Keeler, Gerald

2003-07-01

Community Action Against Asthma (CAAA) is a community-based participatory research (CBPR) project that assesses the effects of outdoor and indoor air quality on exacerbation of asthma in children, and tests household- and neighborhood-level interventions to reduce exposure to environmental asthma triggers. Representatives of community-based organizations, academia, an integrated health system, and the local health department work in partnership on CAAA's Steering Committee (SC) to design and implement the project. To conduct a process evaluation of the CAAA community-academic partnership. In-depth interviews containing open-ended questions were conducted with SC members. Analysis included established methods for qualitative data, including focused coding and constant comparison methods. Community setting in Detroit, Michigan. Twenty-three members of the CAAA SC. Common themes identified by SC members relating to the partnership's ability to achieve project goals and the successes and challenges facing the partnership itself. Identified partnership accomplishments included: successful implementation of a complex project, identification of children with previously undiagnosed asthma, and diverse participation and community influence in SC decisions. Challenges included ensuring all partners' influence in decision-making, the need to adjust to "a different way of doing things" in CBPR, constraints and costs of doing CBPR felt by all partners, ongoing need for communication and maintaining trust, and balancing the needs of science and the community through intervention. CBPR can enhance and facilitate basic research, but care must be given to trust issues, governance issues, organizational culture, and costs of participation for all organizations involved.

Ego Network Analysis of Upper Division Physics Student Survey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brewe, Eric

2017-01-01

We present the analysis of student networks derived from a survey of upper division physics students. Ego networks focus on the connections that center on one person (the ego). The ego networks in this talk come from a survey that is part of an overall project focused on understanding student retention and persistence. The theory underlying this work is that social and academic integration are essential components to supporting students continued enrollment and ultimately graduation. This work uses network analysis as a way to investigate the role of social and academic interactions in retention and persistence decisions. We focus on student interactions with peers, on mentoring interactions with physics department faculty, and on engagement in physics groups and how they influence persistence. Our results, which are preliminary, will help frame the ongoing research project and identify ways in which departments can support students. This work supported by NSF grant #PHY 1344247.

Forecasting of Seasonal Rainfall using ENSO and IOD teleconnection with Classification Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Silva, T.; Hornberger, G. M.

2017-12-01

Seasonal to annual forecasts of precipitation patterns are very important for water infrastructure management. In particular, such forecasts can be used to inform decisions about the operation of multipurpose reservoir systems in the face of changing climate conditions. Success in making useful forecasts often is achieved by considering climate teleconnections such as the El-Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as related to sea surface temperature variations. We present an analysis to explore the utility of using rainfall relationships in Sri Lanka with ENSO and IOD to predict rainfall to the Mahaweli, river basin. Forecasting of rainfall as classes - above normal, normal, and below normal - can be useful for water resource management decision making. Quadratic discrimination analysis (QDA) and random forest models are used to identify the patterns of rainfall classes with respect to ENSO and IOD indices. These models can be used to forecast the likelihood of areal rainfall anomalies using predicted climate indices. Results can be used for decisions regarding allocation of water for agriculture and electricity generation within the Mahaweli project of Sri Lanka.

The study on stage financing model of IT project investment.

PubMed

Chen, Si-hua; Xu, Sheng-hua; Lee, Changhoon; Xiong, Neal N; He, Wei

2014-01-01

Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.

The Study on Stage Financing Model of IT Project Investment

PubMed Central

Xu, Sheng-hua; Xiong, Neal N.

2014-01-01

Stage financing is the basic operation of venture capital investment. In investment, usually venture capitalists use different strategies to obtain the maximum returns. Due to its advantages to reduce the information asymmetry and agency cost, stage financing is widely used by venture capitalists. Although considerable attentions are devoted to stage financing, very little is known about the risk aversion strategies of IT projects. This paper mainly addresses the problem of risk aversion of venture capital investment in IT projects. Based on the analysis of characteristics of venture capital investment of IT projects, this paper introduces a real option pricing model to measure the value brought by the stage financing strategy and design a risk aversion model for IT projects. Because real option pricing method regards investment activity as contingent decision, it helps to make judgment on the management flexibility of IT projects and then make a more reasonable evaluation about the IT programs. Lastly by being applied to a real case, it further illustrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the model. PMID:25147845

A method to harness global crowd-sourced data to understand travel behavior in avalanche terrain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendrikx, J.; Johnson, J.

2015-12-01

To date, most studies of the human dimensions of decision making in avalanche terrain has focused on two areas - post-accident analysis using accident reports/interviews and, the development of tools as decision forcing aids. We present an alternate method using crowd-sourced citizen science, for understanding decision-making in avalanche terrain. Our project combines real-time GPS tracking via a smartphone application, with internet based surveys of winter backcountry users as a method to describe and quantify travel practices in concert with group decision-making dynamics, and demographic data of participants during excursions. Effectively, we use the recorded GPS track taken within the landscape as an expression of the decision making processes and terrain usage by the group. Preliminary data analysis shows that individual experience levels, gender, avalanche hazard, and group composition all influence the ways in which people travel in avalanche terrain. Our results provide the first analysis of coupled real-time GPS tracking of the crowd while moving in avalanche terrain combined with psychographic and demographic correlates. This research will lead to an improved understanding of real-time decision making in avalanche terrain. In this paper we will specifically focus on the presentation of the methods used to solicit, and then harness the crowd to obtain data in a unique and innovative application of citizen science where the movements within the terrain are the desired output data (Figure 1). Figure 1: Example GPS tracks sourced from backcountry winter users in the Teton Pass area (Wyoming), from the 2014-15 winter season, where tracks in red represent those recorded as self-assessed experts (as per our survey), and where tracks in blue represent those recorded as self-assessed intermediates. All tracks shown were obtained under similar avalanche conditions. Statistical analysis of terrain metrics showed that the experts used steeper terrain than the intermediate users under similar avalanche conditions, demonstrating different terrain choice and use as a function of experience rather than hazard level.

Interfacing Computer Aided Parallelization and Performance Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jost, Gabriele; Jin, Haoqiang; Labarta, Jesus; Gimenez, Judit; Biegel, Bryan A. (Technical Monitor)

2003-01-01

When porting sequential applications to parallel computer architectures, the program developer will typically go through several cycles of source code optimization and performance analysis. We have started a project to develop an environment where the user can jointly navigate through program structure and performance data information in order to make efficient optimization decisions. In a prototype implementation we have interfaced the CAPO computer aided parallelization tool with the Paraver performance analysis tool. We describe both tools and their interface and give an example for how the interface helps within the program development cycle of a benchmark code.

Cost-effectiveness of Project ADAM: a project to prevent sudden cardiac death in high school students.

PubMed

Berger, S; Whitstone, B N; Frisbee, S J; Miner, J T; Dhala, A; Pirrallo, R G; Utech, L M; Sachdeva, R C

2004-01-01

Public access defibrillation (PAD) in the adult population is thought to be both efficacious and cost-effective. Similar programs aimed at children and adolescents have not been evaluated for their cost-effectiveness. This study evaluates the potential cost-effectiveness of implementing Project ADAM, a program targeting children and adolescents in high schools in the Milwaukee Public School System. Project ADAM provides education about cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and the warning signs of sudden cardiac death (SCD) and training in the use and placement of automated external defibrillators (AEDs) in high schools. We developed decision analysis models to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the decision to implement Project ADAM in public high schools in Milwaukee. We examined clinical model and public policy applications. Data on costs included estimates of hospital-based charges derived from a pediatric medical center where a series of patients were treated for SCD, educational programming, and the direct costs of one AED and training for 15 personnel per school. We performed sensitivity analyses to assess the variation in outputs with respect to changes to input data. The main outcome measures were Life years saved and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. At an arbitrary societal willingness to pay $100,000 per life year saved, the policy to implement Project ADAM in schools is a cost-effective strategy at a threshold of approximately 5 patients over 5 years for the clinical model and approximately 8 patients over 5 years for the public policy model. Implementation of Project ADAM in high schools in the United States is potentially associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio that is favorable.

Environmental cost of using poor decision metrics to prioritize environmental projects.

PubMed

Pannell, David J; Gibson, Fiona L

2016-04-01

Conservation decision makers commonly use project-scoring metrics that are inconsistent with theory on optimal ranking of projects. As a result, there may often be a loss of environmental benefits. We estimated the magnitudes of these losses for various metrics that deviate from theory in ways that are common in practice. These metrics included cases where relevant variables were omitted from the benefits metric, project costs were omitted, and benefits were calculated using a faulty functional form. We estimated distributions of parameters from 129 environmental projects from Australia, New Zealand, and Italy for which detailed analyses had been completed previously. The cost of using poor prioritization metrics (in terms of lost environmental values) was often high--up to 80% in the scenarios we examined. The cost in percentage terms was greater when the budget was smaller. The most costly errors were omitting information about environmental values (up to 31% loss of environmental values), omitting project costs (up to 35% loss), omitting the effectiveness of management actions (up to 9% loss), and using a weighted-additive decision metric for variables that should be multiplied (up to 23% loss). The latter 3 are errors that occur commonly in real-world decision metrics, in combination often reducing potential benefits from conservation investments by 30-50%. Uncertainty about parameter values also reduced the benefits from investments in conservation projects but often not by as much as faulty prioritization metrics. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Funder Report on Decision Support Systems Project Dissemination Activities, Fiscal Year 1985.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tetlow, William L.

Dissemination activities for the Decision Support Systems (DSS) for fiscal year (FY) 1985 are reported by the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (NCHEMS). The main means for disseminating results of the DSS research and development project has been through computer-generated video presentations at meetings of higher education…

Application of Domain Knowledge to Software Quality Assurance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wild, Christian W.

1997-01-01

This work focused on capturing, using, and evolving a qualitative decision support structure across the life cycle of a project. The particular application of this study was towards business process reengineering and the representation of the business process in a set of Business Rules (BR). In this work, we defined a decision model which captured the qualitative decision deliberation process. It represented arguments both for and against proposed alternatives to a problem. It was felt that the subjective nature of many critical business policy decisions required a qualitative modeling approach similar to that of Lee and Mylopoulos. While previous work was limited almost exclusively to the decision capture phase, which occurs early in the project life cycle, we investigated the use of such a model during the later stages as well. One of our significant developments was the use of the decision model during the operational phase of a project. By operational phase, we mean the phase in which the system or set of policies which were earlier decided are deployed and put into practice. By making the decision model available to operational decision makers, they would have access to the arguments pro and con for a variety of actions and can thus make a more informed decision which balances the often conflicting criteria by which the value of action is measured. We also developed the concept of a 'monitored decision' in which metrics of performance were identified during the decision making process and used to evaluate the quality of that decision. It is important to monitor those decision which seem at highest risk of not meeting their stated objectives. Operational decisions are also potentially high risk decisions. Finally, we investigated the use of performance metrics for monitored decisions and audit logs of operational decisions in order to feed an evolutionary phase of the the life cycle. During evolution, decisions are revisisted, assumptions verified or refuted, and possible reassessments resulting in new policy are made. In this regard we implemented a machine learning algorithm which automatically defined business rules based on expert assessment of the quality of operational decisions as recorded during deployment.

IDESSA: An Integrative Decision Support System for Sustainable Rangeland Management in Southern African Savannas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Hanna; Authmann, Christian; Dreber, Niels; Hess, Bastian; Kellner, Klaus; Morgenthal, Theunis; Nauss, Thomas; Seeger, Bernhard; Tsvuura, Zivanai; Wiegand, Kerstin

2017-04-01

Bush encroachment is a syndrome of land degradation that occurs in many savannas including those of southern Africa. The increase in density, cover or biomass of woody vegetation often has negative effects on a range of ecosystem functions and services, which are hardly reversible. However, despite its importance, neither the causes of bush encroachment, nor the consequences of different resource management strategies to combat or mitigate related shifts in savanna states are fully understood. The project "IDESSA" (An Integrative Decision Support System for Sustainable Rangeland Management in Southern African Savannas) aims to improve the understanding of the complex interplays between land use, climate patterns and vegetation dynamics and to implement an integrative monitoring and decision-support system for the sustainable management of different savanna types. For this purpose, IDESSA follows an innovative approach that integrates local knowledge, botanical surveys, remote-sensing and machine-learning based time-series of atmospheric and land-cover dynamics, spatially explicit simulation modeling and analytical database management. The integration of the heterogeneous data will be implemented in a user oriented database infrastructure and scientific workflow system. Accessible via web-based interfaces, this database and analysis system will allow scientists to manage and analyze monitoring data and scenario computations, as well as allow stakeholders (e. g. land users, policy makers) to retrieve current ecosystem information and seasonal outlooks. We present the concept of the project and show preliminary results of the realization steps towards the integrative savanna management and decision-support system.

The Space Station decision - Incremental politics and technological choice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccurdy, Howard E.

1990-01-01

Using primary documents and interviews with participants, this book describes the events that led up to the 1984 decision that NASA should build a permanently occupied, international space station in low earth orbit. The role that civil servants in NASA played in initiating the program is highlighted. The trail of the Space Station proposal as its advocates devised strategies to push it through the White House policy review process is followed. The critical analysis focuses on the way in which 'incrementalism' (the tendency of policy makers to introduce incremental changes once projects are under way) operated in connection with the Space Station program. The book calls for a commitment to a long-range space policy.

Ethical Guidelines for Structural Interventions to Small-Scale Historic Stone Masonry Buildings.

PubMed

Hurol, Yonca; Yüceer, Hülya; Başarır, Hacer

2015-12-01

Structural interventions to historic stone masonry buildings require that both structural and heritage values be considered simultaneously. The absence of one of these value systems in implementation can be regarded as an unethical professional action. The research objective of this article is to prepare a guideline for ensuring ethical structural interventions to small-scale stone historic masonry buildings in the conservation areas of Northern Cyprus. The methodology covers an analysis of internationally accepted conservation documents and national laws related to the conservation of historic buildings, an analysis of building codes, especially Turkish building codes, which have been used in Northern Cyprus, and an analysis of the structural interventions introduced to a significant historic building in a semi-intact state in the walled city of Famagusta. This guideline covers issues related to whether buildings are intact or ruined, the presence of earthquake risk, the types of structural decisions in an architectural conservation project, and the values to consider during the decision making phase.

Applications of Decision Theory to Test-Based Decision Making. Project Psychometric Aspects of Item Banking No. 23. Research Report 87-9.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van der Linden, Wim J.

The use of Bayesian decision theory to solve problems in test-based decision making is discussed. Four basic decision problems are distinguished: (1) selection; (2) mastery; (3) placement; and (4) classification, the situation where each treatment has its own criterion. Each type of decision can be identified as a specific configuration of one or…

Correlates of healthcare and financial decision making among older adults without dementia.

PubMed

Stewart, Christopher C; Yu, Lei; Wilson, Robert S; Bennett, David A; Boyle, Patricia A

2018-03-22

Healthcare and financial decision making among older persons has been previously associated with cognition, health and financial literacy, and risk aversion; however, the manner by which these resources support decision making remains unclear, as past studies have not systematically investigated the pathways linking these resources with decision making. In the current study, we use path analysis to examine the direct and indirect pathways linking age, education, cognition, literacy, and risk aversion with decision making. We also decomposed literacy into its subcomponents, conceptual knowledge and numeracy, in order to examine their associations with decision making. Participants were 937 community-based older adults without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project who completed a battery of cognitive tests and assessments of healthcare and financial decision making, health and financial literacy, and risk aversion. Age and education exerted effects on decision making, but nearly two thirds of their effects were indirect, working mostly through cognition and literacy. Cognition exerted a strong direct effect on decision making and a robust indirect effect working primarily through literacy. Literacy also exerted a powerful direct effect on decision making, as did its subcomponents, conceptual knowledge and numeracy. The direct effect of risk aversion was comparatively weak. In addition to cognition, health and financial literacy emerged as independent and primary correlates of healthcare and financial decision making. These findings suggest specific actions that might be taken to optimize healthcare and financial decision making and, by extension, improve health and well-being in advanced age. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Changes in DSTO Support to Projects Arising From the 6th July 2006 DCIC Decision: Updated Guidance for Project S&T Plans

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-02-01

responsible to the Government for certifying these technical risks [4] and [5] The current funding model for Project S&T Plans is: • Pre-First...the new costing spreadsheets at Annexes C-E. 3.1 A complete set of S&T Activities The 6th July 2006 DCIC decisions to change the funding model increase...changes to the funding model mean that the set of S&T Activities in the Project S&T Plans will need to be categorised in new ways to fit in with the

Identifying environmental features for land management decisions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

The benefits of changes in management organization and facilities for the Center for Remote Sensing and Cartography in Utah are reported as well as interactions with and outreach to state and local agencies. Completed projects are described which studied (1) Unita Basin wetland/land use; (2) Davis County foothill development; (3) Farmington Bay shoreline fluctuation; (4) irrigation detection; and (5) satellite investigation of snow cover/mule deer relationships. Techniques developed for composite computer mapping, contrast enhancement, U-2 CIR/LANDSAT digital interface; factor analysis, and multivariate statistical analysis are described.

THE NGA-DOE GRANT TO EXAMINE CRITICAL ISSUES RELATED TO RADIOACTIVE WASTE AND MATERIALS DISPOSITION INVOLVING DOE FACILITIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ann M. Beauchesne

2000-01-01

Through the National Governors Association (NGA) project ``Critical Issues Related to Radioactive Waste and Materials Disposition Involving DOE Facilities'' NGA brings together Governors' policy advisors, state regulators, and DOE officials to examine critical issues related to the cleanup and operation of DOE nuclear weapons and research facilities. Topics explored through this project include: Decisions involving disposal of mixed, low-level, and transuranic (TRU) waste and disposition of nuclear materials; Decisions involving DOE budget requests and their effect on environmental cleanup and compliance at DOE facilities; Strategies to treat mixed, low-level, and transuranic (TRU) waste and their effect on individual sites inmore » the complex; Changes to the FFCA site treatment plans as a result of proposals in the Department's Accelerating Cleanup: Paths to Closure plan and contractor integration analysis; Interstate waste and materials shipments; and Reforms to existing RCRA and CERCLA regulations/guidance to address regulatory overlap and risks posed by DOE wastes. The overarching theme of this project is to help the Department improve coordination of its major program decisions with Governors' offices and state regulators and to ensure such decisions reflect input from these key state officials and stakeholders. This report summarizes activities conducted during the period from October 1, 1999 through January 31, 2000, under the NGA grant. The work accomplished by the NGA project team during the past three months can be categorized as follows: maintained open communication with DOE on a variety of activities and issues within the DOE environmental management complex; convened and facilitated the October 6--8 NGA FFCA Task Force Meeting in Oak Ridge, Tennessee; maintained communication with NGA Federal Facilities Compliance Task Force members regarding DOE efforts to formulate a configuration for mixed low-level waste and low-level treatment and disposal, external regulation of DOE; and continued to facilitate interactions between the states and DOE to develop a foundation for an ongoing substantive relationship between the Governors of key states and the Department.« less

Mapping moderate-scale land-cover over very large geographic areas within a collaborative framework: A case study of the Southwest Regional Gap Analysis Project (SWReGAP)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lowry, J.; Ramsey, R.D.; Thomas, K.; Schrupp, D.; Sajwaj, T.; Kirby, J.; Waller, E.; Schrader, S.; Falzarano, S.; Langs, L.; Manis, G.; Wallace, C.; Schulz, K.; Comer, P.; Pohs, K.; Rieth, W.; Velasquez, C.; Wolk, B.; Kepner, W.; Boykin, K.; O'Brien, L.; Bradford, D.; Thompson, B.; Prior-Magee, J.

2007-01-01

Land-cover mapping efforts within the USGS Gap Analysis Program have traditionally been state-centered; each state having the responsibility of implementing a project design for the geographic area within their state boundaries. The Southwest Regional Gap Analysis Project (SWReGAP) was the first formal GAP project designed at a regional, multi-state scale. The project area comprises the southwestern states of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The land-cover map/dataset was generated using regionally consistent geospatial data (Landsat ETM+ imagery (1999-2001) and DEM derivatives), similar field data collection protocols, a standardized land-cover legend, and a common modeling approach (decision tree classifier). Partitioning of mapping responsibilities amongst the five collaborating states was organized around ecoregion-based "mapping zones". Over the course of 21/2 field seasons approximately 93,000 reference samples were collected directly, or obtained from other contemporary projects, for the land-cover modeling effort. The final map was made public in 2004 and contains 125 land-cover classes. An internal validation of 85 of the classes, representing 91% of the land area was performed. Agreement between withheld samples and the validated dataset was 61% (KHAT = .60, n = 17,030). This paper presents an overview of the methodologies used to create the regional land-cover dataset and highlights issues associated with large-area mapping within a coordinated, multi-institutional management framework. ?? 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Causative factors of cost overrun in highway projects of Sindh province of Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sohu, S.; Halid, A.; Nagapan, S.; Fattah, A.; Latif, I.; Ullah, K.

2017-11-01

Cost overrun is an increase of cost of project from approved budget which was signed by parties at the time of tender. Cost overrun in construction of highway projects is a common problem worldwide and construction industry of Pakistan is also facing this crucial problem of cost overrun in highway projects of Pakistan. The main objective of this research is to identify the causative factors of cost overrun in highway projects of Sindh province of Pakistan. A well designed questionnaire was developed based on 64 common factors of cost overrun from literature review. Developed questionnaire was distributed among selected 30 experts from owner/client, designer/consultant and contractor who have experience more than 20 years’ experience in highway projects. The collected data was statistical analyzed. After analysis results showed that delay process in payment by client, inadequate planning, client interference, poor contract management, delay of decision making, change of scope of project and financial problems faced by client were most causative factors of cost overrun in highway projects. This research will provide alertness to stakeholders of highway projects of Sindh province to avoid cost overrun in projects.

"ATLAS" Advanced Technology Life-cycle Analysis System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lollar, Louis F.; Mankins, John C.; ONeil, Daniel A.

2004-01-01

Making good decisions concerning research and development portfolios-and concerning the best systems concepts to pursue - as early as possible in the life cycle of advanced technologies is a key goal of R&D management This goal depends upon the effective integration of information from a wide variety of sources as well as focused, high-level analyses intended to inform such decisions Life-cycle Analysis System (ATLAS) methodology and tool kit. ATLAS encompasses a wide range of methods and tools. A key foundation for ATLAS is the NASA-created Technology Readiness. The toolkit is largely spreadsheet based (as of August 2003). This product is being funded by the Human and Robotics The presentation provides a summary of the Advanced Technology Level (TRL) systems Technology Program Office, Office of Exploration Systems, NASA Headquarters, Washington D.C. and is being integrated by Dan O Neil of the Advanced Projects Office, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL

Cognitive Task Analysis of Network Analysts and Managers for Network Situational Awareness

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Erbacher, Robert; Frincke, Deborah A.; Wong, Pak C.

The goal of the project was to create a set of next generation cyber situational awareness capabilities with applications to other domains in the long term. The goal is to improve the decision making process such that decision makers can choose better actions. To this end, we put extensive effort into ensuring we had feedback from network analysts and managers and understood what their needs truly were. Consequently, this is the focus of this portion of the research. This paper discusses the methodology we followed to acquire this feedback from the analysts, namely a cognitive task analysis. Additionally, this papermore » provides the details we acquired from the analysts. This essentially provides details on their processes, goals, concerns, the data and meta-data they analyze, etc. A final result we describe is the generation of a task-flow diagram.« less

Community governance of the Kahnawake Schools Diabetes Prevention Project, Kahnawake Territory, Mohawk Nation, Canada.

PubMed

Cargo, Margaret; Lévesque, Lucie; Macaulay, Ann C; McComber, Alex; Desrosiers, Serge; Delormier, Treena; Potvin, Louise

2003-09-01

Health promotion emphasizes the importance of community ownership in the governance of community-based programmes, yet little research has been conducted in this area. This study examined perceptions of community ownership among project partners taking responsibility for decision-making related to the Kahnawake Schools Diabetes Prevention Project (KSDPP). Project partners were surveyed cross-sectionally at 18 months (T1) and 60 months (T2) into the project. The perceived influence of each project partner was assessed at T1 and T2 for three domains: (i) KSDPP activities; (ii) KSDPP operations; and (iii) Community Advisory Board (CAB) activities. Project staff were perceived to have the greatest influence on KSDPP activities, KSDPP operations and CAB activities at both T1 and T2. High mean scores of perceived influence for CAB members and community researchers, however, suggests that project decision-making was a shared responsibility among multiple community partners. Although academic researcher influence was consistently low, they were satisfied with their level of influence. This was unlike community affiliates, who were less satisfied with their lower level of influence. In keeping with Kanien'kehaka (Mohawk) culture, the findings suggest a participatory democracy or shared decision-making as the primary mode of governance of KSDPP.

36 CFR 1010.5 - Major decision points.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

...-making process. Most Trust projects have three distinct stages in the decision-making process: (1... stage. (b) Environmental review will be integrated into the decision-making process of the Trust as... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Major decision points. 1010.5...

36 CFR 907.6 - Major decision points.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... decisionmaking process. For most Corporation projects there are three distinct stages in the decision making...) Implementation stage. (b) Environmental review will be integrated into the decision making process of the... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Major decision points. 907.6...

Workplace Factors That Shape Information Technology Project Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nguyen, Dan Schilling

2013-01-01

Information technology (IT) project success depends on having a project manager with effective decision making, leadership, and project management skills. Project success also depends on completing the project in a given budget, time, and scope. Despite these critical qualities of a successful project manager, little research has explored the…

Truck Choice Modeling: Understanding California's Transition to Zero-Emission Vehicle Trucks Taking into Account Truck Technologies, Costs, and Fleet Decision Behavior

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-11-01

This report presents the results of a project to develop a truck vehicle/fuel decision choice model for California and to use that model to make initial projections of truck sales by technology out to 2050. The report also describes the linkage of th...

Supporting Managers, Hearing the Public: A Decision Support Approach for Evaluating Ecosystem Services and Social Benefits from Urban Wetland and Stream-Buffer Restoration

EPA Science Inventory

Public officials and environmental managers face difficult decisions about how to allocate limited funds to the most beneficial restoration projects and how to define what a “beneficial” project is. Beneficial to what? Or to whom? And where? Traditionally, managers ha...

75 FR 63198 - Notice of Availability of the Record of Decision for the Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-14

... Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System (ISEGS) Project located in San Bernardino County, California. The... FX0000 LVRWB09B2400 LLCAD09000] Notice of Availability of the Record of Decision for the Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System Project and Approved Plan Amendment to the California Desert Conservation Area...

75 FR 71144 - Notice of Availability of Record of Decision for the Solar Millennium, LLC, Amargosa Farm Road...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-22

... 241A; 11-08807; TAS:14X5017] Notice of Availability of Record of Decision for the Solar Millennium, LLC, Amargosa Farm Road Solar Energy Project AGENCY: Bureau of Land Management, Interior. ACTION: Notice of... (ROD) for the Solar Millennium, LLC, Amargosa Farm Road Solar Energy Project Environmental Impact...

77 FR 24980 - Record of Decision for Authorizing the Use of Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Sand Resources in the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-26

... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Bureau of Ocean Energy Management Record of Decision for Authorizing... Damage Reduction Project AGENCY: Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), Interior. ACTION: Notice of... Project, the USACE will nourish 4 miles of beach using a sea-turtle friendly design template. The purpose...

75 FR 69458 - Notice of Availability of the Record of Decision for the Genesis Solar Energy Project and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-12

..., LVRWB09B2520] Notice of Availability of the Record of Decision for the Genesis Solar Energy Project [email protected] . SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Genesis Solar, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of NextEra Energy Resources, filed right-of-way (ROW) application CACA-048880 for the proposed Genesis Solar Energy...

On the Brink: Activity and Resource Guide to Teaching about Massachusetts Endangered Species.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cervoni, Cleti, Ed.

Project WILD is the first large-scale curriculum supplement focusing on wildlife concepts and integrated with many areas of the general school curriculum. It features decision-making processes and explores a diversity of attitudes toward wildlife. The goal of Project WILD is to prepare young people to make decisions affecting people and wildlife…

Five reasons not to use numerical models in water resource management (Arne Richter Award Lecture for OYS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pianosi, Francesca

2015-04-01

Sustainable water resource management in a quickly changing world poses new challenges to hydrology and decision sciences. Systems analysis can contribute to promote sustainable practices by providing the theoretical background and the operational tools for an objective and transparent appraisal of policy options for water resource systems (WRS) management. Traditionally, limited availability of data and computing resources imposed to use oversimplified WRS models, with little consideration of modeling uncertainties and of the non-stationarity and feedbacks between WRS drivers, and a priori aggregation of costs and benefits. Nowadays we increasingly recognize the inadequacy of these simplifications, and consider them among the reasons for the limited use of model-generated information in actual decision-making processes. On the other hand, fast-growing availability of data and computing resources are opening up unprecedented possibilities in the way we build and apply numerical models. In this talk I will discuss my experiences and ideas on how we can exploit this potential to improve model-informed decision-making while facing the challenges of uncertainty, non-stationarity, feedbacks and conflicting objectives. In particular, through practical examples of WRS design and operation problems, my talk will aim at stimulating discussion about the impact of uncertainty on decisions: can inaccurate and imprecise predictions still carry valuable information for decision-making? Does uncertainty in predictions necessarily limit our ability to make 'good' decisions? Or can uncertainty even be of help for decision-making, for instance by reducing the projected conflict between competing water use? Finally, I will also discuss how the traditionally separate disciplines of numerical modelling, optimization, and uncertainty and sensitivity analysis have in my experience been just different facets of the same 'systems approach'.

Choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions.

PubMed

Snover, Amy K; Mantua, Nathan J; Littell, Jeremy S; Alexander, Michael A; McClure, Michelle M; Nye, Janet

2013-12-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

The introduction of mentorship to Project 2000 in Wales.

PubMed

Neary, M; Phillips, R; Davies, B

1996-03-13

This study focused upon the introduction of mentors in the Common Foundation Programme (CFP) of Project 2000 (UKCC 1986) in Wales. It was commissioned by the Department of Health Research and Development Division on behalf of the Welsh Office Nursing Division. The study was policy oriented and its purpose was to inform future policy decision making through an analysis of the implementation of current policies for pre-registration education. The full title of our research project, 'The practitioner teacher: a study in the introduction of mentors in the pre-registration nurse education programme', implied that a clinically-based nurse practitioner with a designated teaching remit, fulfills a particular role (that of mentor) in the pre-registration nurse education programme. It was the nature, scope and impact of this mentor role during the initial implementation period of the CFP of Project 2000 in Wales to which this study addressed itself.

Climate Change Impacts at Department of Defense

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kotamarthi, Rao; Wang, Jiali; Zoebel, Zach

This project is aimed at providing the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) with a comprehensive analysis of the uncertainty associated with generating climate projections at the regional scale that can be used by stakeholders and decision makers to quantify and plan for the impacts of future climate change at specific locations. The merits and limitations of commonly used downscaling models, ranging from simple to complex, are compared, and their appropriateness for application at installation scales is evaluated. Downscaled climate projections are generated at selected DoD installations using dynamic and statistical methods with an emphasis on generating probability distributions of climatemore » variables and their associated uncertainties. The sites selection and selection of variables and parameters for downscaling was based on a comprehensive understanding of the current and projected roles that weather and climate play in operating, maintaining, and planning DoD facilities and installations.« less

Robust Decision Making to Support Water Quality Climate Adaptation: a Case Study in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischbach, J. R.; Lempert, R. J.; Molina-Perez, E.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), together with state and local partners, develops watershed implementation plans designed to meet water quality standards. Climate uncertainty, along with uncertainty about future land use changes or the performance of water quality best management practices (BMPs), may make it difficult for these implementation plans to meet water quality goals. In this effort, we explored how decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) methods such as Robust Decision Making (RDM) could help USEPA and its partners develop implementation plans that are more robust to future uncertainty. The study focuses on one part of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, the Patuxent River, which is 2,479 sq km in area, highly urbanized, and has a rapidly growing population. We simulated the contribution of stormwater contaminants from the Patuxent to the overall Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for the Chesapeake Bay under multiple scenarios reflecting climate and other uncertainties. Contaminants considered included nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads. The assessment included a large set of scenario simulations using the USEPA Chesapeake Bay Program's Phase V watershed model. Uncertainties represented in the analysis included 18 downscaled climate projections (based on 6 general circulation models and 3 emissions pathways), 12 land use scenarios with different population projections and development patterns, and alternative assumptions about BMP performance standards and efficiencies associated with different suites of stormwater BMPs. Finally, we developed cost estimates for each of the performance standards and compared cost to TMDL performance as a key tradeoff for future water quality management decisions. In this talk, we describe how this research can help inform climate-related decision support at USEPA's Chesapeake Bay Program, and more generally how RDM and other DMDU methods can support improved water quality management under climate uncertainty.

A further examination of word frequency and age-of-acquisition effects in English lexical decision task performance: The role of frequency trajectory.

PubMed

Juhasz, Barbara J; Yap, Melvin J; Raoul, Akila; Kaye, Micaela

2018-04-23

Word frequency is an important predictor of lexical-decision task performance. The current study further examined the role of this variable by exploring the influence of frequency trajectory. Frequency trajectory is measured by how often a word occurs in childhood relative to adulthood. Past research on the role of this variable in word recognition has produced equivocal results. In the current study, words were selected based on their frequencies in Grade 1 (child frequency) and Grade 13 (college frequency). In Experiment 1, four frequency trajectory conditions were factorially examined in a lexical-decision task with English words: high-to-high (world), high-to-low (uncle), low-to-high (brain) and low-to-low (opera). an interaction between Grade 1 and college frequency demonstrated that words in the low-to-high condition were processed significantly faster and more accurately than words in the low-to-low condition, whereas the high-to-high and high-to-low conditions did not differ significantly. In Experiment 2, an advantage for words with an increasing frequency trajectory was also supported in regression analyses on both lexical decision and naming times for 3,039 items selected from the English Lexicon Project (Balota et al., 2007). This was replicated in Experiment 3, based on a regression analysis of 2,680 words from the British Lexicon Project (BLP; Keuleers, Lacey, Rastle, & Brysbaert, 2012). In all analyses, rated age-of-acquisition also significantly impacted word recognition. Together, the results suggest that the age at which a word is initially learned as well as its frequency trajectory across childhood impact performance in the lexical-decision task. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Land cover map for map zones 8 and 9 developed from SAGEMAP, GNN, and SWReGAP: a pilot for NWGAP

Treesearch

James S. Kagan; Janet L. Ohmann; Matthew Gregory; Claudine Tobalske

2008-01-01

As part of the Northwest Gap Analysis Project, land cover maps were generated for most of eastern Washington and eastern Oregon. The maps were derived from regional SAGEMAP and SWReGAP data sets using decision tree classifiers for nonforest areas, and Gradient Nearest Neighbor imputation modeling for forests and woodlands. The maps integrate data from regional...

The Mission Planning Lab: A Visualization and Analysis Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daugherty, Sarah C.; Cervantes, Benjamin W.

2009-01-01

Simulation and visualization are powerful decision making tools that are time-saving and cost-effective. Space missions pose testing and e valuation challenges that can be overcome through modeling, simulatio n, and visualization of mission parameters. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration?s (NASA) Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) capi talizes on the benefits of modeling, simulation, and visualization to ols through a project initiative called The Mission Planning Lab (MPL ).

A regional land use survey based on remote sensing and other data: A report on a LANDSAT and computer mapping project, volume 1. [Arizona, Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nez, G. (Principal Investigator); Mutter, D.

1977-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. New LANDSAT analysis software and linkages with other computer mapping software were developed. Significant results were also achieved in training, communication, and identification of needs for developing the LANDSAT/computer mapping technologies into operational tools for use by decision makers.

Projecting the impact of a nationwide school plain water access intervention on childhood obesity: a cost-benefit analysis.

PubMed

An, R; Xue, H; Wang, L; Wang, Y

2017-09-22

This study aimed to project the societal cost and benefit of an expansion of a water access intervention that promotes lunchtime plain water consumption by placing water dispensers in New York school cafeterias to all schools nationwide. A decision model was constructed to simulate two events under Markov chain processes - placing water dispensers at lunchtimes in school cafeterias nationwide vs. no action. The incremental cost pertained to water dispenser purchase and maintenance, whereas the incremental benefit was resulted from cases of childhood overweight/obesity prevented and corresponding lifetime direct (medical) and indirect costs saved. Based on the decision model, the estimated incremental cost of the school-based water access intervention is $18 per student, and the corresponding incremental benefit is $192, resulting in a net benefit of $174 per student. Subgroup analysis estimates the net benefit per student to be $199 and $149 among boys and girls, respectively. Nationwide adoption of the intervention would prevent 0.57 million cases of childhood overweight, resulting in a lifetime cost saving totalling $13.1 billion. The estimated total cost saved per dollar spent was $14.5. The New York school-based water access intervention, if adopted nationwide, may have a considerably favourable benefit-cost portfolio. © 2017 World Obesity Federation.

A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

2014-10-01

Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in order to examine the impact of uncertainties. Finally, the need for further analysis, data collection, or refinement is determined. The first steps of defining the problem and the objectives are critical to constructing an informative decision analysis. Such steps must be undertaken with participation from experts, decision-makers, and stakeholders (defined here as "decision participants"). The basic problem here can be framed as: “What is the best strategy to manage risk associated with NEOs?” Some high-level objectives might be to minimize: mortality and injuries, damage to critical infrastructure (e.g., power, communications and food distribution), ecosystem damage, property damage, ungrounded media and public speculation, resources expended, and overall cost. Another valuable objective would be to maximize inter-agency/government coordination. Some of these objectives (e.g., “minimize mortality”) are readily quantified (e.g., deaths and injuries averted). Others are less so (e.g., “maximize inter-agency/government coordination”), but these can be scaled. Objectives may be inversely related: e.g., a strategy that minimizes mortality may cost more. They are also unlikely to be weighted equally. Defining objectives and assessing their relative weight and interactions requires early engagement with decision participants. High-level decisions include whether to deflect a NEO, when to deflect, what is the best alternative for deflection/destruction, and disaster management strategies if an impact occurs. Important influences include, for example: NEO characteristics (orbital characteristics, diameter, mass, spin and composition), impact probability and location, interval between discovery and projected impact date, interval between discovery and deflection target date, costs of information collection, costs and technological feasibility of deflection alternatives, risks of deflection campaigns, requirements for inter-agency and international cooperation, and timing of informing the public. The analytical aspects of decision analysis center on estimation of the expected value (i.e. utility) of different alternatives. The expected value of an alternative is a function of the probability-weighted consequences, estimated using Bayesian calculations in a decision tree or influence diagram model. The result is a set of expected-value estimates for all alternatives evaluated that enables a ranking; the higher the expected value, the more preferred the alternative. A common way to include resource limitations is by framing the decision analysis in the context of economics (e.g., cost-effectiveness analysis). An important aspect of decision analysis in the NEO risk management case is the ability, known as sensitivity analysis, to examine the effect of parameter uncertainty upon decisions. The simplest way to evaluate uncertainty associated with the information used in a decision analysis is to adjust the input values one at a time (or simultaneously) to examine how the results change. Monte Carlo simulations can be used to adjust the inputs over ranges or distributions of values; statistical means then are used to determine the most influential variables. These techniques yield a measure known as the expected value of imperfect information. This value is highly informative, because it allows the decision-maker with imperfect information to evaluate the impact of using experiments, tests, or data collection (e.g. Earth-based observations, space-based remote sensing, etc.) to refine judgments; and indeed to estimate how much should be spent to reduce uncertainty.

The Lunar Lander "HabiTank" Concept

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kennedy, Kriss J.

2007-01-01

This paper will summarize the study that was conducted under the auspices of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), lead by Johnson Space Center s Engineering Directorate in support of the Lunar Lander Preparatory Study (LLPS) as sponsored by the Constellation Program Office (CxPO), Advanced Projects Office (APO). The lunar lander conceptual design and analysis is intended to provide an understanding of requirements for human space exploration of the Moon using the Advanced Projects Office Pre-Lander Project Office selected "HabiTank" Lander concept. In addition, these analyses help identify system "drivers," or significant sources of cost, performance, risk, and schedule variation along with areas needing technology development. Recommendations, results, and conclusions in this paper do not reflect NASA policy or programmatic decisions. This paper is an executive summary of this study.

Family participation in care plan meetings: promoting a collaborative organizational culture in nursing homes.

PubMed

Dijkstra, Ate

2007-04-01

In this study, the author evaluated a project in The Netherlands that aimed to promote family members' participation in care plan meetings at a psychogeriatric nursing home. The small-scale pilot project, which was conducted in four wards of the nursing home, was designed to involve families in health care decisions by allowing family members to participate in care plan meetings. Both qualitative (participant observation and interview) and quantitative (observation matrix and index analysis) approaches were used to evaluate the project. Findings showed family members were involved in approximately half of the interactions, and many of the questions family members asked were not about the illness, but about its effects. This study indicates there is a need for family members to participate in the multidisciplinary care plan meeting.

Feature extraction through parallel Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis for heart disease diagnosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shah, Syed Muhammad Saqlain; Batool, Safeera; Khan, Imran; Ashraf, Muhammad Usman; Abbas, Syed Hussnain; Hussain, Syed Adnan

2017-09-01

Automatic diagnosis of human diseases are mostly achieved through decision support systems. The performance of these systems is mainly dependent on the selection of the most relevant features. This becomes harder when the dataset contains missing values for the different features. Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis (PPCA) has reputation to deal with the problem of missing values of attributes. This research presents a methodology which uses the results of medical tests as input, extracts a reduced dimensional feature subset and provides diagnosis of heart disease. The proposed methodology extracts high impact features in new projection by using Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis (PPCA). PPCA extracts projection vectors which contribute in highest covariance and these projection vectors are used to reduce feature dimension. The selection of projection vectors is done through Parallel Analysis (PA). The feature subset with the reduced dimension is provided to radial basis function (RBF) kernel based Support Vector Machines (SVM). The RBF based SVM serves the purpose of classification into two categories i.e., Heart Patient (HP) and Normal Subject (NS). The proposed methodology is evaluated through accuracy, specificity and sensitivity over the three datasets of UCI i.e., Cleveland, Switzerland and Hungarian. The statistical results achieved through the proposed technique are presented in comparison to the existing research showing its impact. The proposed technique achieved an accuracy of 82.18%, 85.82% and 91.30% for Cleveland, Hungarian and Switzerland dataset respectively.

Seeking and Accepting: U.S. Clergy Theological and Moral Perspectives Informing Decision Making at the End of Life.

PubMed

Sanders, Justin J; Chow, Vinca; Enzinger, Andrea C; Lam, Tai-Chung; Smith, Patrick T; Quiñones, Rebecca; Baccari, Andrew; Philbrick, Sarah; White-Hammond, Gloria; Peteet, John; Balboni, Tracy A; Balboni, Michael J

2017-10-01

People with serious illness frequently rely on religion/spirituality to cope with their diagnosis, with potentially positive and negative consequences. Clergy are uniquely positioned to help patients consider medical decisions at or near the end of life within a religious/spiritual framework. We aimed to examine clergy knowledge of end-of-life (EOL) care and beliefs about the role of faith in EOL decision making for patients with serious illness. Key informant interviews, focus groups, and survey. A purposive sample of 35 active clergy in five U.S. states as part of the National Clergy End-of-Life Project. We assessed participant knowledge of and desire for further education about EOL care. We transcribed interviews and focus groups for the purpose of qualitative analysis. Clergy had poor knowledge of EOL care; 75% desired more EOL training. Qualitative analysis revealed a theological framework for decision making in serious illness that balances seeking life and accepting death. Clergy viewed comfort-focused treatments as consistent with their faith traditions' views of a good death. They employed a moral framework to determine the appropriateness of EOL decisions, which weighs the impact of multiple factors and upholds the importance of God-given free will. They viewed EOL care choices to be the primary prerogative of patients and families. Clergy described ambivalence about and a passive approach to counseling congregants about decision making despite having defined beliefs regarding EOL care. Poor knowledge of EOL care may lead clergy to passively enable congregants with serious illness to pursue potentially nonbeneficial treatments that are associated with increased suffering.

Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management.

PubMed

Oddo, Perry C; Lee, Ben S; Garner, Gregory G; Srikrishnan, Vivek; Reed, Patrick M; Forest, Chris E; Keller, Klaus

2017-09-05

Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Improvement of General Electric’s Chilled Ammonia Process with the use of Membrane Technology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muraskin, Dave; Dube, Sanjay; Baburao, Barath

General Electric Environmental Control Solutions (formerly Alstom Power Environmental Control Systems) set out to complete the Phase 1 award requirements for a Phase II renewal application for their project selected under DOE-FOA-0001190 “Small and Large Scale Pilots for Reducing the Cost of CO 2 Capture and Compression”. The project focus was to implement several improvement concepts utilizing membrane technology at the recipient’s Chilled Ammonia Process (CAP) CO 2 capture large-scale pilot plant. The goal was to lower the overall cost of technology. During the development of costs for the preliminary techno-economic assessment (TEA), it became clear that the capital andmore » operating costs of this concept were not economically attractive. All work related to a Phase II renewal application at that point was halted as GE made the decision not to submit a Phase II renewal application. Discussions with DOE resulted in a path towards useful information produced from the design and cost work already completed on the project. With the reverse osmosis (RO) unit providing most of the cost issues, GE would provide a sensitivity analysis of the RO unit with respect to project cost. This information would be included with the Techno-Economic Analysis along with the Technology Gap Analysis.« less

Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Kelly, Dana; Smith, Curtis; Vedros, Kurt; Galyean, William

2009-01-01

This document, Bayesian Inference for NASA Probabilistic Risk and Reliability Analysis, is intended to provide guidelines for the collection and evaluation of risk and reliability-related data. It is aimed at scientists and engineers familiar with risk and reliability methods and provides a hands-on approach to the investigation and application of a variety of risk and reliability data assessment methods, tools, and techniques. This document provides both: A broad perspective on data analysis collection and evaluation issues. A narrow focus on the methods to implement a comprehensive information repository. The topics addressed herein cover the fundamentals of how data and information are to be used in risk and reliability analysis models and their potential role in decision making. Understanding these topics is essential to attaining a risk informed decision making environment that is being sought by NASA requirements and procedures such as 8000.4 (Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements), NPR 8705.05 (Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects), and the System Safety requirements of NPR 8715.3 (NASA General Safety Program Requirements).

CHANGES SDSS: the development of a Spatial Decision Support System for analysing changing hydro-meteorological risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim; Zhang, Kaixi; Jäger, Stefan; Assmann, Andre; Kass, Steve; Andrejchenko, Vera; Olyazadeh, Roya; Berlin, Julian; Cristal, Irina

2014-05-01

Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES (www.changes-itn.eu) and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO (http://www.increo-fp7.eu) a spatial decision support system is under development with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. The Spatial Decision Support System will be composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to quantitative analysis (using different hazard types, temporal scenarios and vulnerability curves) resulting into risk curves. The platform does not include a component to calculate hazard maps, and existing hazard maps are used as input data for the risk component. The second component of the SDSS is a risk reduction planning component, which forms the core of the platform. This component includes the definition of risk reduction alternatives (related to disaster response planning, risk reduction measures and spatial planning) and links back to the risk assessment module to calculate the new level of risk if the measure is implemented, and a cost-benefit (or cost-effectiveness/ Spatial Multi Criteria Evaluation) component to compare the alternatives and make decision on the optimal one. The third component of the SDSS is a temporal scenario component, which allows to define future scenarios in terms of climate change, land use change and population change, and the time periods for which these scenarios will be made. The component doesn't generate these scenarios but uses input maps for the effect of the scenarios on the hazard and assets maps. The last component is a communication and visualization component, which can compare scenarios and alternatives, not only in the form of maps, but also in other forms (risk curves, tables, graphs). The envisaged users of the platform are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analysing spatial data at a municipal scale.

Development Optimization and Uncertainty Analysis Methods for Oil and Gas Reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ettehadtavakkol, Amin, E-mail: amin.ettehadtavakkol@ttu.edu; Jablonowski, Christopher; Lake, Larry

Uncertainty complicates the development optimization of oil and gas exploration and production projects, but methods have been devised to analyze uncertainty and its impact on optimal decision-making. This paper compares two methods for development optimization and uncertainty analysis: Monte Carlo (MC) simulation and stochastic programming. Two example problems for a gas field development and an oilfield development are solved and discussed to elaborate the advantages and disadvantages of each method. Development optimization involves decisions regarding the configuration of initial capital investment and subsequent operational decisions. Uncertainty analysis involves the quantification of the impact of uncertain parameters on the optimum designmore » concept. The gas field development problem is designed to highlight the differences in the implementation of the two methods and to show that both methods yield the exact same optimum design. The results show that both MC optimization and stochastic programming provide unique benefits, and that the choice of method depends on the goal of the analysis. While the MC method generates more useful information, along with the optimum design configuration, the stochastic programming method is more computationally efficient in determining the optimal solution. Reservoirs comprise multiple compartments and layers with multiphase flow of oil, water, and gas. We present a workflow for development optimization under uncertainty for these reservoirs, and solve an example on the design optimization of a multicompartment, multilayer oilfield development.« less

Assessing the influence of Environmental Impact Assessments on science and policy: an analysis of the Three Gorges Project.

PubMed

Tullos, Desiree

2009-07-01

The need to understand and minimize negative environmental outcomes associated with large dams has both contributed to and benefited from the introduction and subsequent improvements in the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) process. However, several limitations in the EIA process remain, including those associated with the uncertainty and significance of impact projections. These limitations are directly related to the feedback between science and policy, with information gaps in scientific understanding discovered through the EIA process contributing valuable recommendations on critical focus areas for prioritizing and funding research within the fields of ecological conservation and river engineering. This paper presents an analysis of the EIA process for the Three Gorges Project (TGP) in China as a case study for evaluating this feedback between the EIA and science and policy. For one of the best-studied public development projects in the world, this paper presents an investigation into whether patterns exist between the scientific interest (via number of publications) in environmental impacts and (a) the identification of impacts as uncertain or priority by the EIA, (b) decisions or political events associated with the dam, and (c) impact type. This analysis includes the compilation of literature on TGP, characterization of ecosystem interactions and responses to TGP through a hierarchy of impacts, coding of EIA impacts as "uncertain" impacts that require additional study and "priority" impacts that have particularly high significance, mapping of an event chronology to relate policies, institutional changes, and decisions about TGP as "events" that could influence the focus and intensity of scientific investigation, and analysis of the number of publications by impact type and order within the impact hierarchy. From these analyses, it appears that the availability and consistency of scientific information limit the accuracy of environmental impact projections. These analyses also suggest a lack of direct feedback between the EIA process and emerging science, as indicated by the failure of literature to focus on issues related to the design and management of TGP, ultimately challenging the environmental sustainability of the project. While the EIA process has enormous potential for improving both the basic sciences and the planning and sustainability of hydrodevelopment, important institutional changes need to occur for this potential to be realized. This paper concludes with recommendations about those institutional changes needed to improve the feedback between the science and policy, and ultimately the environmental sustainability, of large dams.

Women in EPOS: the role of women in a large pan-European Research Infrastructure for Solid Earth sciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calignano, Elisa; Freda, Carmela; Baracchi, Laura

2017-04-01

Women are outnumbered by men in geosciences senior research positions, but what is the situation if we consider large pan-European Research Infrastructures? With this contribution we want to show an analysis of the role of women in the implementation of the European Plate Observing System (EPOS): a planned research infrastructure for European Solid Earth sciences, integrating national and transnational research infrastructures to enable innovative multidisciplinary research. EPOS involves 256 national research infrastructures, 47 partners (universities and research institutes) from 25 European countries and 4 international organizations. The EPOS integrated platform demands significant coordination between diverse solid Earth disciplinary communities, national research infrastructures and the policies and initiatives they drive, geoscientists and information technologists. The EPOS architecture takes into account governance, legal, financial and technical issues and is designed so that the enterprise works as a single, but distributed, sustainable research infrastructure. A solid management structure is vital for the successful implementation and sustainability of EPOS. The internal organization relies on community-specific Working Packages (WPs), Transversal WPs in charge of the overall EPOS integration and implementation, several governing, executive and advisory bodies, a Project Management Office (PMO) and the Project Coordinator. Driven by the timely debate on gender balance and commitment of the European Commission to promote gender equality in research and innovation, we decided to conduct a mapping exercise on a project that crosses European national borders and that brings together diverse geoscience disciplines under one management structure. We present an analysis of women representation in decision-making positions in each EPOS Working Package (WP Leader, proxy, legal, financial and IT contact persons), in the Boards and Councils and in the PMO, together with statistics on women participation based on the project intranet, which counts more than 500 users. The analysis allows us not only to assess the gender balance in decision-making positions in a pan-European research infrastructure, but also to investigate how women's participation varies with different aspects of the project implementation (management, coordination, legal, financial or technical). Most of the women in EPOS are active geoscientists (academic or in national research institutes), or have a scientific background. By interviewing some of them we report also on how being involved in the project affects their careers. We believe this kind of analysis is an important starting point to promote awareness and achieve gender equality in research and innovation.

Understanding complex clinical reasoning in infectious diseases for improving clinical decision support design.

PubMed

Islam, Roosan; Weir, Charlene R; Jones, Makoto; Del Fiol, Guilherme; Samore, Matthew H

2015-11-30

Clinical experts' cognitive mechanisms for managing complexity have implications for the design of future innovative healthcare systems. The purpose of the study is to examine the constituents of decision complexity and explore the cognitive strategies clinicians use to control and adapt to their information environment. We used Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) methods to interview 10 Infectious Disease (ID) experts at the University of Utah and Salt Lake City Veterans Administration Medical Center. Participants were asked to recall a complex, critical and vivid antibiotic-prescribing incident using the Critical Decision Method (CDM), a type of Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA). Using the four iterations of the Critical Decision Method, questions were posed to fully explore the incident, focusing in depth on the clinical components underlying the complexity. Probes were included to assess cognitive and decision strategies used by participants. The following three themes emerged as the constituents of decision complexity experienced by the Infectious Diseases experts: 1) the overall clinical picture does not match the pattern, 2) a lack of comprehension of the situation and 3) dealing with social and emotional pressures such as fear and anxiety. All these factors contribute to decision complexity. These factors almost always occurred together, creating unexpected events and uncertainty in clinical reasoning. Five themes emerged in the analyses of how experts deal with the complexity. Expert clinicians frequently used 1) watchful waiting instead of over- prescribing antibiotics, engaged in 2) theory of mind to project and simulate other practitioners' perspectives, reduced very complex cases into simple 3) heuristics, employed 4) anticipatory thinking to plan and re-plan events and consulted with peers to share knowledge, solicit opinions and 5) seek help on patient cases. The cognitive strategies to deal with decision complexity found in this study have important implications for design future decision support systems for the management of complex patients.