Big data and visual analytics in anaesthesia and health care.

PubMed

Simpao, A F; Ahumada, L M; Rehman, M A

2015-09-01

Advances in computer technology, patient monitoring systems, and electronic health record systems have enabled rapid accumulation of patient data in electronic form (i.e. big data). Organizations such as the Anesthesia Quality Institute and Multicenter Perioperative Outcomes Group have spearheaded large-scale efforts to collect anaesthesia big data for outcomes research and quality improvement. Analytics--the systematic use of data combined with quantitative and qualitative analysis to make decisions--can be applied to big data for quality and performance improvements, such as predictive risk assessment, clinical decision support, and resource management. Visual analytics is the science of analytical reasoning facilitated by interactive visual interfaces, and it can facilitate performance of cognitive activities involving big data. Ongoing integration of big data and analytics within anaesthesia and health care will increase demand for anaesthesia professionals who are well versed in both the medical and the information sciences. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Decision Support System for Determining Scholarship Selection using an Analytical Hierarchy Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puspitasari, T. D.; Sari, E. O.; Destarianto, P.; Riskiawan, H. Y.

2018-01-01

Decision Support System is a computer program application that analyzes data and presents it so that users can make decision more easily. Determining Scholarship Selection study case in Senior High School in east Java wasn’t easy. It needed application to solve the problem, to improve the accuracy of targets for prospective beneficiaries of poor students and to speed up the screening process. This research will build system uses the method of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a method that solves a complex and unstructured problem into its group, organizes the groups into a hierarchical order, inputs numerical values instead of human perception in comparing relative and ultimately with a synthesis determined elements that have the highest priority. The accuracy system for this research is 90%.

Applying analytic hierarchy process to assess healthcare-oriented cloud computing service systems.

PubMed

Liao, Wen-Hwa; Qiu, Wan-Li

2016-01-01

Numerous differences exist between the healthcare industry and other industries. Difficulties in the business operation of the healthcare industry have continually increased because of the volatility and importance of health care, changes to and requirements of health insurance policies, and the statuses of healthcare providers, which are typically considered not-for-profit organizations. Moreover, because of the financial risks associated with constant changes in healthcare payment methods and constantly evolving information technology, healthcare organizations must continually adjust their business operation objectives; therefore, cloud computing presents both a challenge and an opportunity. As a response to aging populations and the prevalence of the Internet in fast-paced contemporary societies, cloud computing can be used to facilitate the task of balancing the quality and costs of health care. To evaluate cloud computing service systems for use in health care, providing decision makers with a comprehensive assessment method for prioritizing decision-making factors is highly beneficial. Hence, this study applied the analytic hierarchy process, compared items related to cloud computing and health care, executed a questionnaire survey, and then classified the critical factors influencing healthcare cloud computing service systems on the basis of statistical analyses of the questionnaire results. The results indicate that the primary factor affecting the design or implementation of optimal cloud computing healthcare service systems is cost effectiveness, with the secondary factors being practical considerations such as software design and system architecture.

Epilepsy analytic system with cloud computing.

PubMed

Shen, Chia-Ping; Zhou, Weizhi; Lin, Feng-Seng; Sung, Hsiao-Ya; Lam, Yan-Yu; Chen, Wei; Lin, Jeng-Wei; Pan, Ming-Kai; Chiu, Ming-Jang; Lai, Feipei

2013-01-01

Biomedical data analytic system has played an important role in doing the clinical diagnosis for several decades. Today, it is an emerging research area of analyzing these big data to make decision support for physicians. This paper presents a parallelized web-based tool with cloud computing service architecture to analyze the epilepsy. There are many modern analytic functions which are wavelet transform, genetic algorithm (GA), and support vector machine (SVM) cascaded in the system. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the system, it has been verified by two kinds of electroencephalography (EEG) data, which are short term EEG and long term EEG. The results reveal that our approach achieves the total classification accuracy higher than 90%. In addition, the entire training time accelerate about 4.66 times and prediction time is also meet requirements in real time.

Big Data Architectures for Operationalized Seismic and Subsurface Monitoring and Decision Support Workflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Irving, D. H.; Rasheed, M.; Hillman, C.; O'Doherty, N.

2012-12-01

Oilfield management is moving to a more operational footing with near-realtime seismic and sensor monitoring governing drilling, fluid injection and hydrocarbon extraction workflows within safety, productivity and profitability constraints. To date, the geoscientific analytical architectures employed are configured for large volumes of data, computational power or analytical latency and compromises in system design must be made to achieve all three aspects. These challenges are encapsulated by the phrase 'Big Data' which has been employed for over a decade in the IT industry to describe the challenges presented by data sets that are too large, volatile and diverse for existing computational architectures and paradigms. We present a data-centric architecture developed to support a geoscientific and geotechnical workflow whereby: ●scientific insight is continuously applied to fresh data ●insights and derived information are incorporated into engineering and operational decisions ●data governance and provenance are routine within a broader data management framework Strategic decision support systems in large infrastructure projects such as oilfields are typically relational data environments; data modelling is pervasive across analytical functions. However, subsurface data and models are typically non-relational (i.e. file-based) in the form of large volumes of seismic imaging data or rapid streams of sensor feeds and are analysed and interpreted using niche applications. The key architectural challenge is to move data and insight from a non-relational to a relational, or structured, data environment for faster and more integrated analytics. We describe how a blend of MapReduce and relational database technologies can be applied in geoscientific decision support, and the strengths and weaknesses of each in such an analytical ecosystem. In addition we discuss hybrid technologies that use aspects of both and translational technologies for moving data and analytics across these platforms. Moving to a data-centric architecture requires data management methodologies to be overhauled by default and we show how end-to-end data provenancing and dependency management is implicit in such an environment and how it benefits system administration as well as the user community. Whilst the architectural experiences are drawn from the oil industry, we believe that they are more broadly applicable in academic and government settings where large volumes of data are added to incrementally and require revisiting with low analytical latency and we suggest application to earthquake monitoring and remote sensing networks.

Stakeholder perspectives on decision-analytic modeling frameworks to assess genetic services policy.

PubMed

Guzauskas, Gregory F; Garrison, Louis P; Stock, Jacquie; Au, Sylvia; Doyle, Debra Lochner; Veenstra, David L

2013-01-01

Genetic services policymakers and insurers often make coverage decisions in the absence of complete evidence of clinical utility and under budget constraints. We evaluated genetic services stakeholder opinions on the potential usefulness of decision-analytic modeling to inform coverage decisions, and asked them to identify genetic tests for decision-analytic modeling studies. We presented an overview of decision-analytic modeling to members of the Western States Genetic Services Collaborative Reimbursement Work Group and state Medicaid representatives and conducted directed content analysis and an anonymous survey to gauge their attitudes toward decision-analytic modeling. Participants also identified and prioritized genetic services for prospective decision-analytic evaluation. Participants expressed dissatisfaction with current processes for evaluating insurance coverage of genetic services. Some participants expressed uncertainty about their comprehension of decision-analytic modeling techniques. All stakeholders reported openness to using decision-analytic modeling for genetic services assessments. Participants were most interested in application of decision-analytic concepts to multiple-disorder testing platforms, such as next-generation sequencing and chromosomal microarray. Decision-analytic modeling approaches may provide a useful decision tool to genetic services stakeholders and Medicaid decision-makers.

Parameter Estimation of Computationally Expensive Watershed Models Through Efficient Multi-objective Optimization and Interactive Decision Analytics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhtar, Taimoor; Shoemaker, Christine

2016-04-01

Watershed model calibration is inherently a multi-criteria problem. Conflicting trade-offs exist between different quantifiable calibration criterions indicating the non-existence of a single optimal parameterization. Hence, many experts prefer a manual approach to calibration where the inherent multi-objective nature of the calibration problem is addressed through an interactive, subjective, time-intensive and complex decision making process. Multi-objective optimization can be used to efficiently identify multiple plausible calibration alternatives and assist calibration experts during the parameter estimation process. However, there are key challenges to the use of multi objective optimization in the parameter estimation process which include: 1) multi-objective optimization usually requires many model simulations, which is difficult for complex simulation models that are computationally expensive; and 2) selection of one from numerous calibration alternatives provided by multi-objective optimization is non-trivial. This study proposes a "Hybrid Automatic Manual Strategy" (HAMS) for watershed model calibration to specifically address the above-mentioned challenges. HAMS employs a 3-stage framework for parameter estimation. Stage 1 incorporates the use of an efficient surrogate multi-objective algorithm, GOMORS, for identification of numerous calibration alternatives within a limited simulation evaluation budget. The novelty of HAMS is embedded in Stages 2 and 3 where an interactive visual and metric based analytics framework is available as a decision support tool to choose a single calibration from the numerous alternatives identified in Stage 1. Stage 2 of HAMS provides a goodness-of-fit measure / metric based interactive framework for identification of a small subset (typically less than 10) of meaningful and diverse set of calibration alternatives from the numerous alternatives obtained in Stage 1. Stage 3 incorporates the use of an interactive visual analytics framework for decision support in selection of one parameter combination from the alternatives identified in Stage 2. HAMS is applied for calibration of flow parameters of a SWAT model, (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) designed to simulate flow in the Cannonsville watershed in upstate New York. Results from the application of HAMS to Cannonsville indicate that efficient multi-objective optimization and interactive visual and metric based analytics can bridge the gap between the effective use of both automatic and manual strategies for parameter estimation of computationally expensive watershed models.

Security and Communication Improve Community Trust

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schneiderman, Mark

2015-01-01

Using student information in schools is nothing new nor is the reliance on information technologies supported by external service providers. What is new is the adoption of innovations like cloud computing and data analytics that are increasing teacher and family data access, creating actionable information to drive instruction and decision making,…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Qishi; Zhu, Mengxia; Rao, Nageswara S

We propose an intelligent decision support system based on sensor and computer networks that incorporates various component techniques for sensor deployment, data routing, distributed computing, and information fusion. The integrated system is deployed in a distributed environment composed of both wireless sensor networks for data collection and wired computer networks for data processing in support of homeland security defense. We present the system framework and formulate the analytical problems and develop approximate or exact solutions for the subtasks: (i) sensor deployment strategy based on a two-dimensional genetic algorithm to achieve maximum coverage with cost constraints; (ii) data routing scheme tomore » achieve maximum signal strength with minimum path loss, high energy efficiency, and effective fault tolerance; (iii) network mapping method to assign computing modules to network nodes for high-performance distributed data processing; and (iv) binary decision fusion rule that derive threshold bounds to improve system hit rate and false alarm rate. These component solutions are implemented and evaluated through either experiments or simulations in various application scenarios. The extensive results demonstrate that these component solutions imbue the integrated system with the desirable and useful quality of intelligence in decision making.« less

NASA Wrangler: Automated Cloud-Based Data Assembly in the RECOVER Wildfire Decision Support System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schnase, John; Carroll, Mark; Gill, Roger; Wooten, Margaret; Weber, Keith; Blair, Kindra; May, Jeffrey; Toombs, William

2017-01-01

NASA Wrangler is a loosely-coupled, event driven, highly parallel data aggregation service designed to take advantageof the elastic resource capabilities of cloud computing. Wrangler automatically collects Earth observational data, climate model outputs, derived remote sensing data products, and historic biophysical data for pre-, active-, and post-wildfire decision making. It is a core service of the RECOVER decision support system, which is providing rapid-response GIS analytic capabilities to state and local government agencies. Wrangler reduces to minutes the time needed to assemble and deliver crucial wildfire-related data.

Collaborative human-machine analysis to disambiguate entities in unstructured text and structured datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davenport, Jack H.

2016-05-01

Intelligence analysts demand rapid information fusion capabilities to develop and maintain accurate situational awareness and understanding of dynamic enemy threats in asymmetric military operations. The ability to extract relationships between people, groups, and locations from a variety of text datasets is critical to proactive decision making. The derived network of entities must be automatically created and presented to analysts to assist in decision making. DECISIVE ANALYTICS Corporation (DAC) provides capabilities to automatically extract entities, relationships between entities, semantic concepts about entities, and network models of entities from text and multi-source datasets. DAC's Natural Language Processing (NLP) Entity Analytics model entities as complex systems of attributes and interrelationships which are extracted from unstructured text via NLP algorithms. The extracted entities are automatically disambiguated via machine learning algorithms, and resolution recommendations are presented to the analyst for validation; the analyst's expertise is leveraged in this hybrid human/computer collaborative model. Military capability is enhanced by these NLP Entity Analytics because analysts can now create/update an entity profile with intelligence automatically extracted from unstructured text, thereby fusing entity knowledge from structured and unstructured data sources. Operational and sustainment costs are reduced since analysts do not have to manually tag and resolve entities.

Completing the Link between Exposure Science and Toxicology for Improved Environmental Health Decision Making: The Aggregate Exposure Pathway Framework

EPA Science Inventory

Driven by major scientific advances in analytical methods, biomonitoring, computation, and a newly articulated vision for a greater impact in public health, the field of exposure science is undergoing a rapid transition from a field of observation to a field of prediction. Deploy...

Analytic and heuristic processing influences on adolescent reasoning and decision-making.

PubMed

Klaczynski, P A

2001-01-01

The normative/descriptive gap is the discrepancy between actual reasoning and traditional standards for reasoning. The relationship between age and the normative/descriptive gap was examined by presenting adolescents with a battery of reasoning and decision-making tasks. Middle adolescents (N = 76) performed closer to normative ideals than early adolescents (N = 66), although the normative/descriptive gap was large for both groups. Correlational analyses revealed that (1) normative responses correlated positively with each other, (2) nonnormative responses were positively interrelated, and (3) normative and nonnormative responses were largely independent. Factor analyses suggested that performance was based on two processing systems. The "analytic" system operates on "decontextualized" task representations and underlies conscious, computational reasoning. The "heuristic" system operates on "contextualized," content-laden representations and produces "cognitively cheap" responses that sometimes conflict with traditional norms. Analytic processing was more clearly linked to age and to intelligence than heuristic processing. Implications for cognitive development, the competence/performance issue, and rationality are discussed.

The challenge of big data in public health: an opportunity for visual analytics.

PubMed

Ola, Oluwakemi; Sedig, Kamran

2014-01-01

Public health (PH) data can generally be characterized as big data. The efficient and effective use of this data determines the extent to which PH stakeholders can sufficiently address societal health concerns as they engage in a variety of work activities. As stakeholders interact with data, they engage in various cognitive activities such as analytical reasoning, decision-making, interpreting, and problem solving. Performing these activities with big data is a challenge for the unaided mind as stakeholders encounter obstacles relating to the data's volume, variety, velocity, and veracity. Such being the case, computer-based information tools are needed to support PH stakeholders. Unfortunately, while existing computational tools are beneficial in addressing certain work activities, they fall short in supporting cognitive activities that involve working with large, heterogeneous, and complex bodies of data. This paper presents visual analytics (VA) tools, a nascent category of computational tools that integrate data analytics with interactive visualizations, to facilitate the performance of cognitive activities involving big data. Historically, PH has lagged behind other sectors in embracing new computational technology. In this paper, we discuss the role that VA tools can play in addressing the challenges presented by big data. In doing so, we demonstrate the potential benefit of incorporating VA tools into PH practice, in addition to highlighting the need for further systematic and focused research.

The Challenge of Big Data in Public Health: An Opportunity for Visual Analytics

PubMed Central

Ola, Oluwakemi; Sedig, Kamran

2014-01-01

Public health (PH) data can generally be characterized as big data. The efficient and effective use of this data determines the extent to which PH stakeholders can sufficiently address societal health concerns as they engage in a variety of work activities. As stakeholders interact with data, they engage in various cognitive activities such as analytical reasoning, decision-making, interpreting, and problem solving. Performing these activities with big data is a challenge for the unaided mind as stakeholders encounter obstacles relating to the data’s volume, variety, velocity, and veracity. Such being the case, computer-based information tools are needed to support PH stakeholders. Unfortunately, while existing computational tools are beneficial in addressing certain work activities, they fall short in supporting cognitive activities that involve working with large, heterogeneous, and complex bodies of data. This paper presents visual analytics (VA) tools, a nascent category of computational tools that integrate data analytics with interactive visualizations, to facilitate the performance of cognitive activities involving big data. Historically, PH has lagged behind other sectors in embracing new computational technology. In this paper, we discuss the role that VA tools can play in addressing the challenges presented by big data. In doing so, we demonstrate the potential benefit of incorporating VA tools into PH practice, in addition to highlighting the need for further systematic and focused research. PMID:24678376

Towards sustainable infrastructure management: knowledge-based service-oriented computing framework for visual analytics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vatcha, Rashna; Lee, Seok-Won; Murty, Ajeet; Tolone, William; Wang, Xiaoyu; Dou, Wenwen; Chang, Remco; Ribarsky, William; Liu, Wanqiu; Chen, Shen-en; Hauser, Edd

2009-05-01

Infrastructure management (and its associated processes) is complex to understand, perform and thus, hard to make efficient and effective informed decisions. The management involves a multi-faceted operation that requires the most robust data fusion, visualization and decision making. In order to protect and build sustainable critical assets, we present our on-going multi-disciplinary large-scale project that establishes the Integrated Remote Sensing and Visualization (IRSV) system with a focus on supporting bridge structure inspection and management. This project involves specific expertise from civil engineers, computer scientists, geographers, and real-world practitioners from industry, local and federal government agencies. IRSV is being designed to accommodate the essential needs from the following aspects: 1) Better understanding and enforcement of complex inspection process that can bridge the gap between evidence gathering and decision making through the implementation of ontological knowledge engineering system; 2) Aggregation, representation and fusion of complex multi-layered heterogeneous data (i.e. infrared imaging, aerial photos and ground-mounted LIDAR etc.) with domain application knowledge to support machine understandable recommendation system; 3) Robust visualization techniques with large-scale analytical and interactive visualizations that support users' decision making; and 4) Integration of these needs through the flexible Service-oriented Architecture (SOA) framework to compose and provide services on-demand. IRSV is expected to serve as a management and data visualization tool for construction deliverable assurance and infrastructure monitoring both periodically (annually, monthly, even daily if needed) as well as after extreme events.

Analytical Algorithms to Quantify the Uncertainty in Remaining Useful Life Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sankararaman, Shankar; Saxena, Abhinav; Daigle, Matthew; Goebel, Kai

2013-01-01

This paper investigates the use of analytical algorithms to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life (RUL) estimate of components used in aerospace applications. The prediction of RUL is affected by several sources of uncertainty and it is important to systematically quantify their combined effect by computing the uncertainty in the RUL prediction in order to aid risk assessment, risk mitigation, and decisionmaking. While sampling-based algorithms have been conventionally used for quantifying the uncertainty in RUL, analytical algorithms are computationally cheaper and sometimes, are better suited for online decision-making. While exact analytical algorithms are available only for certain special cases (for e.g., linear models with Gaussian variables), effective approximations can be made using the the first-order second moment method (FOSM), the first-order reliability method (FORM), and the inverse first-order reliability method (Inverse FORM). These methods can be used not only to calculate the entire probability distribution of RUL but also to obtain probability bounds on RUL. This paper explains these three methods in detail and illustrates them using the state-space model of a lithium-ion battery.

Influence versus intent for predictive analytics in situation awareness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Biru; Yang, Shanchieh J.; Kadar, Ivan

2013-05-01

Predictive analytics in situation awareness requires an element to comprehend and anticipate potential adversary activities that might occur in the future. Most work in high level fusion or predictive analytics utilizes machine learning, pattern mining, Bayesian inference, and decision tree techniques to predict future actions or states. The emergence of social computing in broader contexts has drawn interests in bringing the hypotheses and techniques from social theory to algorithmic and computational settings for predictive analytics. This paper aims at answering the question on how influence and attitude (some interpreted such as intent) of adversarial actors can be formulated and computed algorithmically, as a higher level fusion process to provide predictions of future actions. The challenges in this interdisciplinary endeavor include drawing existing understanding of influence and attitude in both social science and computing fields, as well as the mathematical and computational formulation for the specific context of situation to be analyzed. The study of `influence' has resurfaced in recent years due to the emergence of social networks in the virtualized cyber world. Theoretical analysis and techniques developed in this area are discussed in this paper in the context of predictive analysis. Meanwhile, the notion of intent, or `attitude' using social theory terminologies, is a relatively uncharted area in the computing field. Note that a key objective of predictive analytics is to identify impending/planned attacks so their `impact' and `threat' can be prevented. In this spirit, indirect and direct observables are drawn and derived to infer the influence network and attitude to predict future threats. This work proposes an integrated framework that jointly assesses adversarial actors' influence network and their attitudes as a function of past actions and action outcomes. A preliminary set of algorithms are developed and tested using the Global Terrorism Database (GTD). Our results reveals the benefits to perform joint predictive analytics with both attitude and influence. At the same time, we discover significant challenges in deriving influence and attitude from indirect observables for diverse adversarial behavior. These observations warrant further investigation of optimal use of influence and attitude for predictive analytics, as well as the potential inclusion of other environmental or capability elements for the actors.

Preparing Accounting Graduates for Digital Revolution: A Critical Review of Information Technology Competencies and Skills Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pan, Gary; Seow, Poh-Sun

2016-01-01

The pervasiveness of information technology (IT) in businesses has altered the nature and economies of accounting activities. In particular, the emergence of cloud computing, eXtensible Business Reporting Language, and business analytics in recent years have transformed the way companies report financial performance and make business decisions. As…

MERRA Analytic Services: Meeting the Big Data Challenges of Climate Science through Cloud-Enabled Climate Analytics-as-a-Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schnase, J. L.; Duffy, D.; Tamkin, G. S.; Nadeau, D.; Thompson, J. H.; Grieg, C. M.; McInerney, M.; Webster, W. P.

2013-12-01

Climate science is a Big Data domain that is experiencing unprecedented growth. In our efforts to address the Big Data challenges of climate science, we are moving toward a notion of Climate Analytics-as-a-Service (CAaaS). We focus on analytics, because it is the knowledge gained from our interactions with Big Data that ultimately produce societal benefits. We focus on CAaaS because we believe it provides a useful way of thinking about the problem: a specialization of the concept of business process-as-a-service, which is an evolving extension of IaaS, PaaS, and SaaS enabled by Cloud Computing. Within this framework, Cloud Computing plays an important role; however, we see it as only one element in a constellation of capabilities that are essential to delivering climate analytics as a service. These elements are essential because in the aggregate they lead to generativity, a capacity for self-assembly that we feel is the key to solving many of the Big Data challenges in this domain. MERRA Analytic Services (MERRA/AS) is an example of cloud-enabled CAaaS built on this principle. MERRA/AS enables MapReduce analytics over NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data collection. The MERRA reanalysis integrates observational data with numerical models to produce a global temporally and spatially consistent synthesis of 26 key climate variables. It represents a type of data product that is of growing importance to scientists doing climate change research and a wide range of decision support applications. MERRA/AS brings together the following generative elements in a full, end-to-end demonstration of CAaaS capabilities: (1) high-performance, data proximal analytics, (2) scalable data management, (3) software appliance virtualization, (4) adaptive analytics, and (5) a domain-harmonized API. The effectiveness of MERRA/AS has been demonstrated in several applications. In our experience, Cloud Computing lowers the barriers and risk to organizational change, fosters innovation and experimentation, facilitates technology transfer, and provides the agility required to meet our customers' increasing and changing needs. Cloud Computing is providing a new tier in the data services stack that helps connect earthbound, enterprise-level data and computational resources to new customers and new mobility-driven applications and modes of work. For climate science, Cloud Computing's capacity to engage communities in the construction of new capabilies is perhaps the most important link between Cloud Computing and Big Data.

MERRA Analytic Services: Meeting the Big Data Challenges of Climate Science Through Cloud-enabled Climate Analytics-as-a-service

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schnase, John L.; Duffy, Daniel Quinn; Tamkin, Glenn S.; Nadeau, Denis; Thompson, John H.; Grieg, Christina M.; McInerney, Mark A.; Webster, William P.

2014-01-01

Climate science is a Big Data domain that is experiencing unprecedented growth. In our efforts to address the Big Data challenges of climate science, we are moving toward a notion of Climate Analytics-as-a-Service (CAaaS). We focus on analytics, because it is the knowledge gained from our interactions with Big Data that ultimately produce societal benefits. We focus on CAaaS because we believe it provides a useful way of thinking about the problem: a specialization of the concept of business process-as-a-service, which is an evolving extension of IaaS, PaaS, and SaaS enabled by Cloud Computing. Within this framework, Cloud Computing plays an important role; however, we it see it as only one element in a constellation of capabilities that are essential to delivering climate analytics as a service. These elements are essential because in the aggregate they lead to generativity, a capacity for self-assembly that we feel is the key to solving many of the Big Data challenges in this domain. MERRA Analytic Services (MERRAAS) is an example of cloud-enabled CAaaS built on this principle. MERRAAS enables MapReduce analytics over NASAs Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data collection. The MERRA reanalysis integrates observational data with numerical models to produce a global temporally and spatially consistent synthesis of 26 key climate variables. It represents a type of data product that is of growing importance to scientists doing climate change research and a wide range of decision support applications. MERRAAS brings together the following generative elements in a full, end-to-end demonstration of CAaaS capabilities: (1) high-performance, data proximal analytics, (2) scalable data management, (3) software appliance virtualization, (4) adaptive analytics, and (5) a domain-harmonized API. The effectiveness of MERRAAS has been demonstrated in several applications. In our experience, Cloud Computing lowers the barriers and risk to organizational change, fosters innovation and experimentation, facilitates technology transfer, and provides the agility required to meet our customers' increasing and changing needs. Cloud Computing is providing a new tier in the data services stack that helps connect earthbound, enterprise-level data and computational resources to new customers and new mobility-driven applications and modes of work. For climate science, Cloud Computing's capacity to engage communities in the construction of new capabilies is perhaps the most important link between Cloud Computing and Big Data.

Can Sophie's Choice Be Adequately Captured by Cold Computation of Minimizing Losses? An fMRI Study of Vital Loss Decisions

PubMed Central

Li, Qi; Qin, Shaozheng; Rao, Li-Lin; Zhang, Wencai; Ying, Xiaoping; Guo, Xiuyan; Guo, Chunyan; Ding, Jinghong; Li, Shu; Luo, Jing

2011-01-01

The vast majority of decision-making research is performed under the assumption of the value maximizing principle. This principle implies that when making decisions, individuals try to optimize outcomes on the basis of cold mathematical equations. However, decisions are emotion-laden rather than cool and analytic when they tap into life-threatening considerations. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), this study investigated the neural mechanisms underlying vital loss decisions. Participants were asked to make a forced choice between two losses across three conditions: both losses are trivial (trivial-trivial), both losses are vital (vital-vital), or one loss is trivial and the other is vital (vital-trivial). Our results revealed that the amygdala was more active and correlated positively with self-reported negative emotion associated with choice during vital-vital loss decisions, when compared to trivial-trivial loss decisions. The rostral anterior cingulate cortex was also more active and correlated positively with self-reported difficulty of choice during vital-vital loss decisions. Compared to the activity observed during trivial-trivial loss decisions, the orbitofrontal cortex and ventral striatum were more active and correlated positively with self-reported positive emotion of choice during vital-trivial loss decisions. Our findings suggest that vital loss decisions involve emotions and cannot be adequately captured by cold computation of minimizing losses. This research will shed light on how people make vital loss decisions. PMID:21412428

Structural analysis at aircraft conceptual design stage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansouri, Reza

In the past 50 years, computers have helped by augmenting human efforts with tremendous pace. The aircraft industry is not an exception. Aircraft industry is more than ever dependent on computing because of a high level of complexity and the increasing need for excellence to survive a highly competitive marketplace. Designers choose computers to perform almost every analysis task. But while doing so, existing effective, accurate and easy to use classical analytical methods are often forgotten, which can be very useful especially in the early phases of the aircraft design where concept generation and evaluation demands physical visibility of design parameters to make decisions [39, 2004]. Structural analysis methods have been used by human beings since the very early civilization. Centuries before computers were invented; the pyramids were designed and constructed by Egyptians around 2000 B.C, the Parthenon was built by the Greeks, around 240 B.C, Dujiangyan was built by the Chinese. Persepolis, Hagia Sophia, Taj Mahal, Eiffel tower are only few more examples of historical buildings, bridges and monuments that were constructed before we had any advancement made in computer aided engineering. Aircraft industry is no exception either. In the first half of the 20th century, engineers used classical method and designed civil transport aircraft such as Ford Tri Motor (1926), Lockheed Vega (1927), Lockheed 9 Orion (1931), Douglas DC-3 (1935), Douglas DC-4/C-54 Skymaster (1938), Boeing 307 (1938) and Boeing 314 Clipper (1939) and managed to become airborne without difficulty. Evidencing, while advanced numerical methods such as the finite element analysis is one of the most effective structural analysis methods; classical structural analysis methods can also be as useful especially during the early phase of a fixed wing aircraft design where major decisions are made and concept generation and evaluation demands physical visibility of design parameters to make decisions. Considering the strength and limitations of both methodologies, the question to be answered in this thesis is: How valuable and compatible are the classical analytical methods in today's conceptual design environment? And can these methods complement each other? To answer these questions, this thesis investigates the pros and cons of classical analytical structural analysis methods during the conceptual design stage through the following objectives: Illustrate structural design methodology of these methods within the framework of Aerospace Vehicle Design (AVD) lab's design lifecycle. Demonstrate the effectiveness of moment distribution method through four case studies. This will be done by considering and evaluating the strength and limitation of these methods. In order to objectively quantify the limitation and capabilities of the analytical method at the conceptual design stage, each case study becomes more complex than the one before.

Final Report: PAGE: Policy Analytics Generation Engine

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-12

develop a parallel framework for it. We also developed policies and methods by which a group of defensive resources (e.g. checkpoints) could be...Sarit Kraus. Learning to Reveal Information in Repeated Human -Computer Negotiation, Human -Agent Interaction Design and Models Workshop 2012. 04-JUN...Joseph Keshet, Sarit Kraus. Predicting Human Strategic Decisions Using Facial Expressions, International Joint Conference on Artificial

Problem-Based Labs and Group Projects in an Introductory University Physics Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kohnle, Antje; Brown, C. Tom A.; Rae, Cameron F.; Sinclair, Bruce D.

2012-01-01

This article describes problem-based labs and analytical and computational project work we have been running at the University of St Andrews in an introductory physics course since 2008/2009. We have found the choice of topics, scaffolding of the process, timing in the year and facilitator guidance decisive for the success of these activities.…

Predicting adverse hemodynamic events in critically ill patients.

PubMed

Yoon, Joo H; Pinsky, Michael R

2018-06-01

The art of predicting future hemodynamic instability in the critically ill has rapidly become a science with the advent of advanced analytical processed based on computer-driven machine learning techniques. How these methods have progressed beyond severity scoring systems to interface with decision-support is summarized. Data mining of large multidimensional clinical time-series databases using a variety of machine learning tools has led to our ability to identify alert artifact and filter it from bedside alarms, display real-time risk stratification at the bedside to aid in clinical decision-making and predict the subsequent development of cardiorespiratory insufficiency hours before these events occur. This fast evolving filed is primarily limited by linkage of high-quality granular to physiologic rationale across heterogeneous clinical care domains. Using advanced analytic tools to glean knowledge from clinical data streams is rapidly becoming a reality whose clinical impact potential is great.

Automated technical validation--a real time expert system for decision support.

PubMed

de Graeve, J S; Cambus, J P; Gruson, A; Valdiguié, P M

1996-04-15

Dealing daily with various machines and various control specimens provides a lot of data that cannot be processed manually. In order to help decision-making we wrote specific software coping with the traditional QC, with patient data (mean of normals, delta check) and with criteria related to the analytical equipment (flags and alarms). Four machines (3 Ektachem 700 and 1 Hitachi 911) analysing 25 common chemical tests are controlled. Every day, three different control specimens and one more once a week (regional survey) are run on the various pieces of equipment. The data are collected on a 486 microcomputer connected to the central computer. For every parameter the standard deviation is compared with the published acceptable limits and the Westgard's rules are computed. The mean of normals is continuously monitored. The final decision induces either an alarm sound and the print-out of the cause of rejection or, if no alarms happen, the daily print-out of recorded data, with or without the Levey Jennings graphs.

A novel computer based expert decision making model for prostate cancer disease management.

PubMed

Richman, Martin B; Forman, Ernest H; Bayazit, Yildirim; Einstein, Douglas B; Resnick, Martin I; Stovsky, Mark D

2005-12-01

We propose a strategic, computer based, prostate cancer decision making model based on the analytic hierarchy process. We developed a model that improves physician-patient joint decision making and enhances the treatment selection process by making this critical decision rational and evidence based. Two groups (patient and physician-expert) completed a clinical study comparing an initial disease management choice with the highest ranked option generated by the computer model. Participants made pairwise comparisons to derive priorities for the objectives and subobjectives related to the disease management decision. The weighted comparisons were then applied to treatment options to yield prioritized rank lists that reflect the likelihood that a given alternative will achieve the participant treatment goal. Aggregate data were evaluated by inconsistency ratio analysis and sensitivity analysis, which assessed the influence of individual objectives and subobjectives on the final rank list of treatment options. Inconsistency ratios less than 0.05 were reliably generated, indicating that judgments made within the model were mathematically rational. The aggregate prioritized list of treatment options was tabulated for the patient and physician groups with similar outcomes for the 2 groups. Analysis of the major defining objectives in the treatment selection decision demonstrated the same rank order for the patient and physician groups with cure, survival and quality of life being more important than controlling cancer, preventing major complications of treatment, preventing blood transfusion complications and limiting treatment cost. Analysis of subobjectives, including quality of life and sexual dysfunction, produced similar priority rankings for the patient and physician groups. Concordance between initial treatment choice and the highest weighted model option differed between the groups with the patient group having 59% concordance and the physician group having only 42% concordance. This study successfully validated the usefulness of a computer based prostate cancer management decision making model to produce individualized, rational, clinically appropriate disease management decisions without physician bias.

Discovering Tradeoffs, Vulnerabilities, and Dependencies within Water Resources Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, P. M.

2015-12-01

There is a growing recognition and interest in using emerging computational tools for discovering the tradeoffs that emerge across complex combinations infrastructure options, adaptive operations, and sign posts. As a field concerned with "deep uncertainties", it is logically consistent to include a more direct acknowledgement that our choices for dealing with computationally demanding simulations, advanced search algorithms, and sensitivity analysis tools are themselves subject to failures that could adversely bias our understanding of how systems' vulnerabilities change with proposed actions. Balancing simplicity versus complexity in our computational frameworks is nontrivial given that we are often exploring high impact irreversible decisions. It is not always clear that accepted models even encompass important failure modes. Moreover as they become more complex and computationally demanding the benefits and consequences of simplifications are often untested. This presentation discusses our efforts to address these challenges through our "many-objective robust decision making" (MORDM) framework for the design and management water resources systems. The MORDM framework has four core components: (1) elicited problem conception and formulation, (2) parallel many-objective search, (3) interactive visual analytics, and (4) negotiated selection of robust alternatives. Problem conception and formulation is the process of abstracting a practical design problem into a mathematical representation. We build on the emerging work in visual analytics to exploit interactive visualization of both the design space and the objective space in multiple heterogeneous linked views that permit exploration and discovery. Many-objective search produces tradeoff solutions from potentially competing problem formulations that can each consider up to ten conflicting objectives based on current computational search capabilities. Negotiated design selection uses interactive visualization, reformulation, and optimization to discover desirable designs for implementation. Multi-city urban water supply portfolio planning will be used to illustrate the MORDM framework.

Eliciting expert opinion for economic models: an applied example.

PubMed

Leal, José; Wordsworth, Sarah; Legood, Rosa; Blair, Edward

2007-01-01

Expert opinion is considered as a legitimate source of information for decision-analytic modeling where required data are unavailable. Our objective was to develop a practical computer-based tool for eliciting expert opinion about the shape of the uncertainty distribution around individual model parameters. We first developed a prepilot survey with departmental colleagues to test a number of alternative approaches to eliciting opinions on the shape of the uncertainty distribution around individual parameters. This information was used to develop a survey instrument for an applied clinical example. This involved eliciting opinions from experts to inform a number of parameters involving Bernoulli processes in an economic model evaluating DNA testing for families with a genetic disease, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. The experts were cardiologists, clinical geneticists, and laboratory scientists working with cardiomyopathy patient populations and DNA testing. Our initial prepilot work suggested that the more complex elicitation techniques advocated in the literature were difficult to use in practice. In contrast, our approach achieved a reasonable response rate (50%), provided logical answers, and was generally rated as easy to use by respondents. The computer software user interface permitted graphical feedback throughout the elicitation process. The distributions obtained were incorporated into the model, enabling the use of probabilistic sensitivity analysis. There is clearly a gap in the literature between theoretical elicitation techniques and tools that can be used in applied decision-analytic models. The results of this methodological study are potentially valuable for other decision analysts deriving expert opinion.

Lightweight Expression of Granular Objects (LEGO) Content Modeling Using the SNOMED CT Observables Model to Represent Nursing Assessment Data.

PubMed

Johnson, Christie

2016-01-01

This poster presentation presents a content modeling strategy using the SNOMED CT Observable Model to represent large amounts of detailed clinical data in a consistent and computable manner that can support multiple use cases. Lightweight Expression of Granular Objects (LEGOs) represent question/answer pairs on clinical data collection forms, where a question is modeled by a (usually) post-coordinated SNOMED CT expression. LEGOs transform electronic patient data into a normalized consumable, which means that the expressions can be treated as extensions of the SNOMED CT hierarchies for the purpose of performing subsumption queries and other analytics. Utilizing the LEGO approach for modeling clinical data obtained from a nursing admission assessment provides a foundation for data exchange across disparate information systems and software applications. Clinical data exchange of computable LEGO patient information enables the development of more refined data analytics, data storage and clinical decision support.

Tool for Ranking Research Options

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ortiz, James N.; Scott, Kelly; Smith, Harold

2005-01-01

Tool for Research Enhancement Decision Support (TREDS) is a computer program developed to assist managers in ranking options for research aboard the International Space Station (ISS). It could likely also be adapted to perform similar decision-support functions in industrial and academic settings. TREDS provides a ranking of the options, based on a quantifiable assessment of all the relevant programmatic decision factors of benefit, cost, and risk. The computation of the benefit for each option is based on a figure of merit (FOM) for ISS research capacity that incorporates both quantitative and qualitative inputs. Qualitative inputs are gathered and partly quantified by use of the time-tested analytical hierarchical process and used to set weighting factors in the FOM corresponding to priorities determined by the cognizant decision maker(s). Then by use of algorithms developed specifically for this application, TREDS adjusts the projected benefit for each option on the basis of levels of technical implementation, cost, and schedule risk. Based partly on Excel spreadsheets, TREDS provides screens for entering cost, benefit, and risk information. Drop-down boxes are provided for entry of qualitative information. TREDS produces graphical output in multiple formats that can be tailored by users.

A 3-states magnetic model of binary decisions in sociophysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, Miguel A.; Korutcheva, Elka; de la Rubia, F. Javier

2016-11-01

We study a diluted Blume-Capel model of 3-states sites as an attempt to understand how some social processes as cooperation or organization happen. For this aim, we study the effect of the complex network topology on the equilibrium properties of the model, by focusing on three different substrates: random graph, Watts-Strogatz and Newman substrates. Our computer simulations are in good agreement with the corresponding analytical results.

Decision problems in management of construction projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szafranko, E.

2017-10-01

In a construction business, one must oftentimes make decisions during all stages of a building process, from planning a new construction project through its execution to the stage of using a ready structure. As a rule, the decision making process is made more complicated due to certain conditions specific for civil engineering. With such diverse decision situations, it is recommended to apply various decision making support methods. Both, literature and hands-on experience suggest several methods based on analytical and computational procedures, some less and some more complex. This article presents the methods which can be helpful in supporting decision making processes in the management of civil engineering projects. These are multi-criteria methods, such as MCE, AHP or indicator methods. Because the methods have different advantages and disadvantages, whereas decision situations have their own specific nature, a brief summary of the methods alongside some recommendations regarding their practical applications has been given at the end of the paper. The main aim of this article is to review the methods of decision support and their analysis for possible use in the construction industry.

Analytical Support Capabilities of Turkish General Staff Scientific Decision Support Centre (SDSC) to Defence Transformation

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-04-01

RTO-MP-SAS-055 4 - 1 UNCLASSIFIED/UNLIMITED UNCLASSIFIED/UNLIMITED Analytical Support Capabilities of Turkish General Staff Scientific...the end failed to achieve anything commensurate with the effort. The analytical support capabilities of Turkish Scientific Decision Support Center to...percent of the İpekkan, Z.; Özkil, A. (2005) Analytical Support Capabilities of Turkish General Staff Scientific Decision Support Centre (SDSC) to

EpiK: A Knowledge Base for Epidemiological Modeling and Analytics of Infectious Diseases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hasan, S. M. Shamimul; Fox, Edward A.; Bisset, Keith

Computational epidemiology seeks to develop computational methods to study the distribution and determinants of health-related states or events (including disease), and the application of this study to the control of diseases and other health problems. Recent advances in computing and data sciences have led to the development of innovative modeling environments to support this important goal. The datasets used to drive the dynamic models as well as the data produced by these models presents unique challenges owing to their size, heterogeneity and diversity. These datasets form the basis of effective and easy to use decision support and analytical environments. Asmore » a result, it is important to develop scalable data management systems to store, manage and integrate these datasets. In this paper, we develop EpiK—a knowledge base that facilitates the development of decision support and analytical environments to support epidemic science. An important goal is to develop a framework that links the input as well as output datasets to facilitate effective spatio-temporal and social reasoning that is critical in planning and intervention analysis before and during an epidemic. The data management framework links modeling workflow data and its metadata using a controlled vocabulary. The metadata captures information about storage, the mapping between the linked model and the physical layout, and relationships to support services. EpiK is designed to support agent-based modeling and analytics frameworks—aggregate models can be seen as special cases and are thus supported. We use semantic web technologies to create a representation of the datasets that encapsulates both the location and the schema heterogeneity. The choice of RDF as a representation language is motivated by the diversity and growth of the datasets that need to be integrated. A query bank is developed—the queries capture a broad range of questions that can be posed and answered during a typical case study pertaining to disease outbreaks. The queries are constructed using SPARQL Protocol and RDF Query Language (SPARQL) over the EpiK. EpiK can hide schema and location heterogeneity while efficiently supporting queries that span the computational epidemiology modeling pipeline: from model construction to simulation output. As a result, we show that the performance of benchmark queries varies significantly with respect to the choice of hardware underlying the database and resource description framework (RDF) engine.« less

EpiK: A Knowledge Base for Epidemiological Modeling and Analytics of Infectious Diseases

DOE PAGES

Hasan, S. M. Shamimul; Fox, Edward A.; Bisset, Keith; ...

2017-11-06

Computational epidemiology seeks to develop computational methods to study the distribution and determinants of health-related states or events (including disease), and the application of this study to the control of diseases and other health problems. Recent advances in computing and data sciences have led to the development of innovative modeling environments to support this important goal. The datasets used to drive the dynamic models as well as the data produced by these models presents unique challenges owing to their size, heterogeneity and diversity. These datasets form the basis of effective and easy to use decision support and analytical environments. Asmore » a result, it is important to develop scalable data management systems to store, manage and integrate these datasets. In this paper, we develop EpiK—a knowledge base that facilitates the development of decision support and analytical environments to support epidemic science. An important goal is to develop a framework that links the input as well as output datasets to facilitate effective spatio-temporal and social reasoning that is critical in planning and intervention analysis before and during an epidemic. The data management framework links modeling workflow data and its metadata using a controlled vocabulary. The metadata captures information about storage, the mapping between the linked model and the physical layout, and relationships to support services. EpiK is designed to support agent-based modeling and analytics frameworks—aggregate models can be seen as special cases and are thus supported. We use semantic web technologies to create a representation of the datasets that encapsulates both the location and the schema heterogeneity. The choice of RDF as a representation language is motivated by the diversity and growth of the datasets that need to be integrated. A query bank is developed—the queries capture a broad range of questions that can be posed and answered during a typical case study pertaining to disease outbreaks. The queries are constructed using SPARQL Protocol and RDF Query Language (SPARQL) over the EpiK. EpiK can hide schema and location heterogeneity while efficiently supporting queries that span the computational epidemiology modeling pipeline: from model construction to simulation output. As a result, we show that the performance of benchmark queries varies significantly with respect to the choice of hardware underlying the database and resource description framework (RDF) engine.« less

A Big Data and Learning Analytics Approach to Process-Level Feedback in Cognitive Simulations.

PubMed

Pecaric, Martin; Boutis, Kathy; Beckstead, Jason; Pusic, Martin

2017-02-01

Collecting and analyzing large amounts of process data for the purposes of education can be considered a big data/learning analytics (BD/LA) approach to improving learning. However, in the education of health care professionals, the application of BD/LA is limited to date. The authors discuss the potential advantages of the BD/LA approach for the process of learning via cognitive simulations. Using the lens of a cognitive model of radiograph interpretation with four phases (orientation, searching/scanning, feature detection, and decision making), they reanalyzed process data from a cognitive simulation of pediatric ankle radiography where 46 practitioners from three expertise levels classified 234 cases online. To illustrate the big data component, they highlight the data available in a digital environment (time-stamped, click-level process data). Learning analytics were illustrated using algorithmic computer-enabled approaches to process-level feedback.For each phase, the authors were able to identify examples of potentially useful BD/LA measures. For orientation, the trackable behavior of re-reviewing the clinical history was associated with increased diagnostic accuracy. For searching/scanning, evidence of skipping views was associated with an increased false-negative rate. For feature detection, heat maps overlaid on the radiograph can provide a metacognitive visualization of common novice errors. For decision making, the measured influence of sequence effects can reflect susceptibility to bias, whereas computer-generated path maps can provide insights into learners' diagnostic strategies.In conclusion, the augmented collection and dynamic analysis of learning process data within a cognitive simulation can improve feedback and prompt more precise reflection on a novice clinician's skill development.

Decision Making in Adults with ADHD

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Montyla, Timo; Still, Johanna; Gullberg, Stina; Del Missier, Fabio

2012-01-01

Objectives: This study examined decision-making competence in ADHD by using multiple decision tasks with varying demands on analytic versus affective processes. Methods: Adults with ADHD and healthy controls completed two tasks of analytic decision making, as measured by the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC) battery, and two affective…

From the Patient Perspective: the Economic Value of Seasonal and H1N1 Influenza Vaccination

PubMed Central

Lee, Bruce Y.; Bacon, Kristina; Donohue, Julie M.; Wiringa, Ann E.; Bailey, Rachel R.; Zimmerman, Richard K.

2011-01-01

Although studies have suggested that a patient’s perceived cost-benefit of a medical intervention could affect his or her utilization of the intervention, the economic value of influenza vaccine from the patient’s perspective remains unclear. Therefore, we developed a stochastic decision analytic computer model representing an adult’s decision of whether to get vaccinated. Different scenarios explored the impact of the patient being insured versus uninsured, influenza attack rate, vaccine administration costs and vaccination time costs. Results indicated that cost of avoiding influenza was fairly low, with one driver being required vaccination time. To encourage vaccination, decision makers may want to focus on ways to reduce this time, such as vaccinating at work, churches, or other normally frequented locations. PMID:21215340

Judicial and legislative viewpoints on physician misestimation of patient dysutilities: a problem for decision analysts.

PubMed

Mazur, D J

1990-01-01

Appellate courts, state legislatures, and ethicists have recently (post-1972) been interested-through the evolving court doctrine of informed consent-in patient-physician joint decision making. Yet these professional groups' approaches differ markedly from that of decision analysis, failing to include an explicit role for patients' rational processing of information in informed consent. In addition, these groups charge that decision analysts are misestimating patient dysutilities. This paper examines three issues: 1) in what sense(s), if any, is decision-analytic work in individualized medical decision making misestimating patient dysutilities, 2) if this misestimation is real, whether it is an example of the normative-descriptive tensions that exist in medical decision making, and 3) in what ways do the relationships between decision-analytic and judicial decision making change when informed consent is viewed in terms of contract law as opposed to tort law. This paper argues that a key link dividing these professional groups is the differing weights given to the "value of information" by decision-analytic vs. non-decision-analytic frameworks.

P.C. disposal decisions: a banking industry case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shah, Sejal P.; Sarkis, Joseph

2002-02-01

The service industry and the manufacturing industry are interlinked in a supply chain situation. Part of the effectiveness of some manufacturing industry environmental performance based on remanufacturing and recycling is dependent on service industry decisions. In the information technology arena, personal computers (PCs) are the hard equipment of the service industry. The end-of-life decisions made by the service industry, and in this case the banking industry will have implications for the amount of systems within the waste or reverse logistics stream for manufacturers. Looking at some of the issues (and presenting a model for evaluation) related to decision making concerning end-of-life disposition for PCs is something this paper investigates. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) is applied in this circumstance. The development of the model, its application, and results, provide the basis for much of the discussion in this paper.

MapReduce Based Parallel Bayesian Network for Manufacturing Quality Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Mao-Kuan; Ming, Xin-Guo; Zhang, Xian-Yu; Li, Guo-Ming

2017-09-01

Increasing complexity of industrial products and manufacturing processes have challenged conventional statistics based quality management approaches in the circumstances of dynamic production. A Bayesian network and big data analytics integrated approach for manufacturing process quality analysis and control is proposed. Based on Hadoop distributed architecture and MapReduce parallel computing model, big volume and variety quality related data generated during the manufacturing process could be dealt with. Artificial intelligent algorithms, including Bayesian network learning, classification and reasoning, are embedded into the Reduce process. Relying on the ability of the Bayesian network in dealing with dynamic and uncertain problem and the parallel computing power of MapReduce, Bayesian network of impact factors on quality are built based on prior probability distribution and modified with posterior probability distribution. A case study on hull segment manufacturing precision management for ship and offshore platform building shows that computing speed accelerates almost directly proportionally to the increase of computing nodes. It is also proved that the proposed model is feasible for locating and reasoning of root causes, forecasting of manufacturing outcome, and intelligent decision for precision problem solving. The integration of bigdata analytics and BN method offers a whole new perspective in manufacturing quality control.

Pitting intuitive and analytical thinking against each other: the case of transitivity.

PubMed

Rusou, Zohar; Zakay, Dan; Usher, Marius

2013-06-01

Identifying which thinking mode, intuitive or analytical, yields better decisions has been a major subject of inquiry by decision-making researchers. Yet studies show contradictory results. One possibility is that the ambiguity is due to the variability in experimental conditions across studies. Our hypothesis is that decision quality depends critically on the level of compatibility between the thinking mode employed in the decision and the nature of the decision-making task. In two experiments, we pitted intuition and analytical thinking against each other on tasks that were either mainly intuitive or mainly analytical. Thinking modes, as well as task characteristics, were manipulated in a factorial design, with choice transitivity as the dependent measure. Results showed higher choice consistency (transitivity) when thinking mode and the characteristics of the decision task were compatible.

A WPS Based Architecture for Climate Data Analytic Services (CDAS) at NASA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, T. P.; McInerney, M.; Duffy, D.; Carriere, L.; Potter, G. L.; Doutriaux, C.

2015-12-01

Faced with unprecedented growth in the Big Data domain of climate science, NASA has developed the Climate Data Analytic Services (CDAS) framework. This framework enables scientists to execute trusted and tested analysis operations in a high performance environment close to the massive data stores at NASA. The data is accessed in standard (NetCDF, HDF, etc.) formats in a POSIX file system and processed using trusted climate data analysis tools (ESMF, CDAT, NCO, etc.). The framework is structured as a set of interacting modules allowing maximal flexibility in deployment choices. The current set of module managers include: Staging Manager: Runs the computation locally on the WPS server or remotely using tools such as celery or SLURM. Compute Engine Manager: Runs the computation serially or distributed over nodes using a parallelization framework such as celery or spark. Decomposition Manger: Manages strategies for distributing the data over nodes. Data Manager: Handles the import of domain data from long term storage and manages the in-memory and disk-based caching architectures. Kernel manager: A kernel is an encapsulated computational unit which executes a processor's compute task. Each kernel is implemented in python exploiting existing analysis packages (e.g. CDAT) and is compatible with all CDAS compute engines and decompositions. CDAS services are accessed via a WPS API being developed in collaboration with the ESGF Compute Working Team to support server-side analytics for ESGF. The API can be executed using either direct web service calls, a python script or application, or a javascript-based web application. Client packages in python or javascript contain everything needed to make CDAS requests. The CDAS architecture brings together the tools, data storage, and high-performance computing required for timely analysis of large-scale data sets, where the data resides, to ultimately produce societal benefits. It is is currently deployed at NASA in support of the Collaborative REAnalysis Technical Environment (CREATE) project, which centralizes numerous global reanalysis datasets onto a single advanced data analytics platform. This service permits decision makers to investigate climate changes around the globe, inspect model trends, compare multiple reanalysis datasets, and variability.

Decision-analytic modeling studies: An overview for clinicians using multiple myeloma as an example.

PubMed

Rochau, U; Jahn, B; Qerimi, V; Burger, E A; Kurzthaler, C; Kluibenschaedl, M; Willenbacher, E; Gastl, G; Willenbacher, W; Siebert, U

2015-05-01

The purpose of this study was to provide a clinician-friendly overview of decision-analytic models evaluating different treatment strategies for multiple myeloma (MM). We performed a systematic literature search to identify studies evaluating MM treatment strategies using mathematical decision-analytic models. We included studies that were published as full-text articles in English, and assessed relevant clinical endpoints, and summarized methodological characteristics (e.g., modeling approaches, simulation techniques, health outcomes, perspectives). Eleven decision-analytic modeling studies met our inclusion criteria. Five different modeling approaches were adopted: decision-tree modeling, Markov state-transition modeling, discrete event simulation, partitioned-survival analysis and area-under-the-curve modeling. Health outcomes included survival, number-needed-to-treat, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life years. Evaluated treatment strategies included novel agent-based combination therapies, stem cell transplantation and supportive measures. Overall, our review provides a comprehensive summary of modeling studies assessing treatment of MM and highlights decision-analytic modeling as an important tool for health policy decision making. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Challenges of Human-Autonomy Teaming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vera, Alonso

2017-01-01

Machine intelligence is improving rapidly based on advances in big data analytics, deep learning algorithms, networked operations, and continuing exponential growth in computing power (Moores Law). This growth in the power and applicability of increasingly intelligent systems will change the roles humans, shifting them to tasks where adaptive problem solving, reasoning and decision-making is required. This talk will address the challenges involved in engineering autonomous systems that function effectively with humans in aeronautics domains.

Emerging Themes in Image Informatics and Molecular Analysis for Digital Pathology.

PubMed

Bhargava, Rohit; Madabhushi, Anant

2016-07-11

Pathology is essential for research in disease and development, as well as for clinical decision making. For more than 100 years, pathology practice has involved analyzing images of stained, thin tissue sections by a trained human using an optical microscope. Technological advances are now driving major changes in this paradigm toward digital pathology (DP). The digital transformation of pathology goes beyond recording, archiving, and retrieving images, providing new computational tools to inform better decision making for precision medicine. First, we discuss some emerging innovations in both computational image analytics and imaging instrumentation in DP. Second, we discuss molecular contrast in pathology. Molecular DP has traditionally been an extension of pathology with molecularly specific dyes. Label-free, spectroscopic images are rapidly emerging as another important information source, and we describe the benefits and potential of this evolution. Third, we describe multimodal DP, which is enabled by computational algorithms and combines the best characteristics of structural and molecular pathology. Finally, we provide examples of application areas in telepathology, education, and precision medicine. We conclude by discussing challenges and emerging opportunities in this area.

Emerging Themes in Image Informatics and Molecular Analysis for Digital Pathology

PubMed Central

Bhargava, Rohit; Madabhushi, Anant

2017-01-01

Pathology is essential for research in disease and development, as well as for clinical decision making. For more than 100 years, pathology practice has involved analyzing images of stained, thin tissue sections by a trained human using an optical microscope. Technological advances are now driving major changes in this paradigm toward digital pathology (DP). The digital transformation of pathology goes beyond recording, archiving, and retrieving images, providing new computational tools to inform better decision making for precision medicine. First, we discuss some emerging innovations in both computational image analytics and imaging instrumentation in DP. Second, we discuss molecular contrast in pathology. Molecular DP has traditionally been an extension of pathology with molecularly specific dyes. Label-free, spectroscopic images are rapidly emerging as another important information source, and we describe the benefits and potential of this evolution. Third, we describe multimodal DP, which is enabled by computational algorithms and combines the best characteristics of structural and molecular pathology. Finally, we provide examples of application areas in telepathology, education, and precision medicine. We conclude by discussing challenges and emerging opportunities in this area. PMID:27420575

Hemispheric Activation Differences in Novice and Expert Clinicians during Clinical Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hruska, Pam; Hecker, Kent G.; Coderre, Sylvain; McLaughlin, Kevin; Cortese, Filomeno; Doig, Christopher; Beran, Tanya; Wright, Bruce; Krigolson, Olav

2016-01-01

Clinical decision making requires knowledge, experience and analytical/non-analytical types of decision processes. As clinicians progress from novice to expert, research indicates decision-making becomes less reliant on foundational biomedical knowledge and more on previous experience. In this study, we investigated how knowledge and experience…

An analytical procedure to assist decision-making in a government research organization

Treesearch

H. Dean Claxton; Giuseppe Rensi

1972-01-01

An analytical procedure to help management decision-making in planning government research is described. The objectives, activities, and restrictions of a government research organization are modeled in a consistent analytical framework. Theory and methodology is drawn from economics and mathe-matical programing. The major analytical aspects distinguishing research...

A Fuzzy-Based Decision Support Model for Selecting the Best Dialyser Flux in Haemodialysis.

PubMed

Oztürk, Necla; Tozan, Hakan

2015-01-01

Decision making is an important procedure for every organization. The procedure is particularly challenging for complicated multi-criteria problems. Selection of dialyser flux is one of the decisions routinely made for haemodialysis treatment provided for chronic kidney failure patients. This study provides a decision support model for selecting the best dialyser flux between high-flux and low-flux dialyser alternatives. The preferences of decision makers were collected via a questionnaire. A total of 45 questionnaires filled by dialysis physicians and nephrologists were assessed. A hybrid fuzzy-based decision support software that enables the use of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP), Analytic Network Process (ANP), and Fuzzy Analytic Network Process (FANP) was used to evaluate the flux selection model. In conclusion, the results showed that a high-flux dialyser is the best. option for haemodialysis treatment.

Computation of Asteroid Proper Elements: Recent Advances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knežević, Z.

2017-12-01

The recent advances in computation of asteroid proper elements are briefly reviewed. Although not representing real breakthroughs in computation and stability assessment of proper elements, these advances can still be considered as important improvements offering solutions to some practical problems encountered in the past. The problem of getting unrealistic values of perihelion frequency for very low eccentricity orbits is solved by computing frequencies using the frequency-modified Fourier transform. The synthetic resonant proper elements adjusted to a given secular resonance helped to prove the existence of Astraea asteroid family. The preliminary assessment of stability with time of proper elements computed by means of the analytical theory provides a good indication of their poorer performance with respect to their synthetic counterparts, and advocates in favor of ceasing their regular maintenance; the final decision should, however, be taken on the basis of more comprehensive and reliable direct estimate of their individual and sample average deviations from constancy.

Research on AHP decision algorithms based on BP algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Ning; Guan, Jianhe

2017-10-01

Decision making is the thinking activity that people choose or judge, and scientific decision-making has always been a hot issue in the field of research. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a simple and practical multi-criteria and multi-objective decision-making method that combines quantitative and qualitative and can show and calculate the subjective judgment in digital form. In the process of decision analysis using AHP method, the rationality of the two-dimensional judgment matrix has a great influence on the decision result. However, in dealing with the real problem, the judgment matrix produced by the two-dimensional comparison is often inconsistent, that is, it does not meet the consistency requirements. BP neural network algorithm is an adaptive nonlinear dynamic system. It has powerful collective computing ability and learning ability. It can perfect the data by constantly modifying the weights and thresholds of the network to achieve the goal of minimizing the mean square error. In this paper, the BP algorithm is used to deal with the consistency of the two-dimensional judgment matrix of the AHP.

Platform for Automated Real-Time High Performance Analytics on Medical Image Data.

PubMed

Allen, William J; Gabr, Refaat E; Tefera, Getaneh B; Pednekar, Amol S; Vaughn, Matthew W; Narayana, Ponnada A

2018-03-01

Biomedical data are quickly growing in volume and in variety, providing clinicians an opportunity for better clinical decision support. Here, we demonstrate a robust platform that uses software automation and high performance computing (HPC) resources to achieve real-time analytics of clinical data, specifically magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data. We used the Agave application programming interface to facilitate communication, data transfer, and job control between an MRI scanner and an off-site HPC resource. In this use case, Agave executed the graphical pipeline tool GRAphical Pipeline Environment (GRAPE) to perform automated, real-time, quantitative analysis of MRI scans. Same-session image processing will open the door for adaptive scanning and real-time quality control, potentially accelerating the discovery of pathologies and minimizing patient callbacks. We envision this platform can be adapted to other medical instruments, HPC resources, and analytics tools.

Algorithmic mechanisms for reliable crowdsourcing computation under collusion.

PubMed

Fernández Anta, Antonio; Georgiou, Chryssis; Mosteiro, Miguel A; Pareja, Daniel

2015-01-01

We consider a computing system where a master processor assigns a task for execution to worker processors that may collude. We model the workers' decision of whether to comply (compute the task) or not (return a bogus result to save the computation cost) as a game among workers. That is, we assume that workers are rational in a game-theoretic sense. We identify analytically the parameter conditions for a unique Nash Equilibrium where the master obtains the correct result. We also evaluate experimentally mixed equilibria aiming to attain better reliability-profit trade-offs. For a wide range of parameter values that may be used in practice, our simulations show that, in fact, both master and workers are better off using a pure equilibrium where no worker cheats, even under collusion, and even for colluding behaviors that involve deviating from the game.

Algorithmic Mechanisms for Reliable Crowdsourcing Computation under Collusion

PubMed Central

Fernández Anta, Antonio; Georgiou, Chryssis; Mosteiro, Miguel A.; Pareja, Daniel

2015-01-01

We consider a computing system where a master processor assigns a task for execution to worker processors that may collude. We model the workers’ decision of whether to comply (compute the task) or not (return a bogus result to save the computation cost) as a game among workers. That is, we assume that workers are rational in a game-theoretic sense. We identify analytically the parameter conditions for a unique Nash Equilibrium where the master obtains the correct result. We also evaluate experimentally mixed equilibria aiming to attain better reliability-profit trade-offs. For a wide range of parameter values that may be used in practice, our simulations show that, in fact, both master and workers are better off using a pure equilibrium where no worker cheats, even under collusion, and even for colluding behaviors that involve deviating from the game. PMID:25793524

Developing an Analytical Framework: Incorporating Ecosystem Services into Decision Making - Proceedings of a Workshop

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hogan, Dianna; Arthaud, Greg; Pattison, Malka; Sayre, Roger G.; Shapiro, Carl

2010-01-01

The analytical framework for understanding ecosystem services in conservation, resource management, and development decisions is multidisciplinary, encompassing a combination of the natural and social sciences. This report summarizes a workshop on 'Developing an Analytical Framework: Incorporating Ecosystem Services into Decision Making,' which focused on the analytical process and on identifying research priorities for assessing ecosystem services, their production and use, their spatial and temporal characteristics, their relationship with natural systems, and their interdependencies. Attendees discussed research directions and solutions to key challenges in developing the analytical framework. The discussion was divided into two sessions: (1) the measurement framework: quantities and values, and (2) the spatial framework: mapping and spatial relationships. This workshop was the second of three preconference workshops associated with ACES 2008 (A Conference on Ecosystem Services): Using Science for Decision Making in Dynamic Systems. These three workshops were designed to explore the ACES 2008 theme on decision making and how the concept of ecosystem services can be more effectively incorporated into conservation, restoration, resource management, and development decisions. Preconference workshop 1, 'Developing a Vision: Incorporating Ecosystem Services into Decision Making,' was held on April 15, 2008, in Cambridge, MA. In preconference workshop 1, participants addressed what would have to happen to make ecosystem services be used more routinely and effectively in conservation, restoration, resource management, and development decisions, and they identified some key challenges in developing the analytical framework. Preconference workshop 3, 'Developing an Institutional Framework: Incorporating Ecosystem Services into Decision Making,' was held on October 30, 2008, in Albuquerque, NM; participants examined the relationship between the institutional framework and the use of ecosystem services in decision making.

Propulsion System Modeling and Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tai, Jimmy C. M.; McClure, Erin K.; Mavris, Dimitri N.; Burg, Cecile

2002-01-01

The Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory at the School of Aerospace Engineering in Georgia Institute of Technology has developed a core competency that enables propulsion technology managers to make technology investment decisions substantiated by propulsion and airframe technology system studies. This method assists the designer/manager in selecting appropriate technology concepts while accounting for the presence of risk and uncertainty as well as interactions between disciplines. This capability is incorporated into a single design simulation system that is described in this paper. This propulsion system design environment is created with a commercially available software called iSIGHT, which is a generic computational framework, and with analysis programs for engine cycle, engine flowpath, mission, and economic analyses. iSIGHT is used to integrate these analysis tools within a single computer platform and facilitate information transfer amongst the various codes. The resulting modeling and simulation (M&S) environment in conjunction with the response surface method provides the designer/decision-maker an analytical means to examine the entire design space from either a subsystem and/or system perspective. The results of this paper will enable managers to analytically play what-if games to gain insight in to the benefits (and/or degradation) of changing engine cycle design parameters. Furthermore, the propulsion design space will be explored probabilistically to show the feasibility and viability of the propulsion system integrated with a vehicle.

Volume and Value of Big Healthcare Data.

PubMed

Dinov, Ivo D

Modern scientific inquiries require significant data-driven evidence and trans-disciplinary expertise to extract valuable information and gain actionable knowledge about natural processes. Effective evidence-based decisions require collection, processing and interpretation of vast amounts of complex data. The Moore's and Kryder's laws of exponential increase of computational power and information storage, respectively, dictate the need rapid trans-disciplinary advances, technological innovation and effective mechanisms for managing and interrogating Big Healthcare Data. In this article, we review important aspects of Big Data analytics and discuss important questions like: What are the challenges and opportunities associated with this biomedical, social, and healthcare data avalanche? Are there innovative statistical computing strategies to represent, model, analyze and interpret Big heterogeneous data? We present the foundation of a new compressive big data analytics (CBDA) framework for representation, modeling and inference of large, complex and heterogeneous datasets. Finally, we consider specific directions likely to impact the process of extracting information from Big healthcare data, translating that information to knowledge, and deriving appropriate actions.

Volume and Value of Big Healthcare Data

PubMed Central

Dinov, Ivo D.

2016-01-01

Modern scientific inquiries require significant data-driven evidence and trans-disciplinary expertise to extract valuable information and gain actionable knowledge about natural processes. Effective evidence-based decisions require collection, processing and interpretation of vast amounts of complex data. The Moore's and Kryder's laws of exponential increase of computational power and information storage, respectively, dictate the need rapid trans-disciplinary advances, technological innovation and effective mechanisms for managing and interrogating Big Healthcare Data. In this article, we review important aspects of Big Data analytics and discuss important questions like: What are the challenges and opportunities associated with this biomedical, social, and healthcare data avalanche? Are there innovative statistical computing strategies to represent, model, analyze and interpret Big heterogeneous data? We present the foundation of a new compressive big data analytics (CBDA) framework for representation, modeling and inference of large, complex and heterogeneous datasets. Finally, we consider specific directions likely to impact the process of extracting information from Big healthcare data, translating that information to knowledge, and deriving appropriate actions. PMID:26998309

Fire behavior modeling-a decision tool

Treesearch

Jack Cohen; Bill Bradshaw

1986-01-01

The usefulness of an analytical model as a fire management decision tool is determined by the correspondence of its descriptive capability to the specific decision context. Fire managers must determine the usefulness of fire models as a decision tool when applied to varied situations. Because the wildland fire phenomenon is complex, analytical fire spread models will...

A MDMP for All Seasons: Modifying the MDMP for Success

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-05-26

4 Rational Decision - Making Theory ............................................................................. 5 Limited Rationality ... making instead of using the MDMP, which is an analytical decision - making process. Limited rationality and analytical decision - making will be discussed...limited rationality decision - making theories. FM 5.0 defines fundamentals of planning, such as commander’s involvement and developing creative plans

Decision exploration lab: a visual analytics solution for decision management.

PubMed

Broeksema, Bertjan; Baudel, Thomas; Telea, Arthur G; Crisafulli, Paolo

2013-12-01

We present a visual analytics solution designed to address prevalent issues in the area of Operational Decision Management (ODM). In ODM, which has its roots in Artificial Intelligence (Expert Systems) and Management Science, it is increasingly important to align business decisions with business goals. In our work, we consider decision models (executable models of the business domain) as ontologies that describe the business domain, and production rules that describe the business logic of decisions to be made over this ontology. Executing a decision model produces an accumulation of decisions made over time for individual cases. We are interested, first, to get insight in the decision logic and the accumulated facts by themselves. Secondly and more importantly, we want to see how the accumulated facts reveal potential divergences between the reality as captured by the decision model, and the reality as captured by the executed decisions. We illustrate the motivation, added value for visual analytics, and our proposed solution and tooling through a business case from the car insurance industry.

The Students Decision Making in Solving Discount Problem

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abdillah; Nusantara, Toto; Subanji; Susanto, Hery; Abadyo

2016-01-01

This research is reviewing students' process of decision making intuitively, analytically, and interactively. The research done by using discount problem which specially created to explore student's intuition, analytically, and interactively. In solving discount problems, researcher exploring student's decision in determining their attitude which…

Research | Argonne National Laboratory

Science.gov Websites

, and Decision Analytics Energy Systems Analysis Engines and Fuels Friction, Wear, and Lubrication Vehicle Technologies Buildings and Climate-Environment Energy, Power, and Decision Analytics Energy

Flat-plate solar array project. Volume 8: Project analysis and integration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcguire, P.; Henry, P.

1986-01-01

Project Analysis and Integration (PA&I) performed planning and integration activities to support management of the various Flat-Plate Solar Array (FSA) Project R&D activities. Technical and economic goals were established by PA&I for each R&D task within the project to coordinate the thrust toward the National Photovoltaic Program goals. A sophisticated computer modeling capability was developed to assess technical progress toward meeting the economic goals. These models included a manufacturing facility simulation, a photovoltaic power station simulation and a decision aid model incorporating uncertainty. This family of analysis tools was used to track the progress of the technology and to explore the effects of alternative technical paths. Numerous studies conducted by PA&I signaled the achievement of milestones or were the foundation of major FSA project and national program decisions. The most important PA&I activities during the project history are summarized. The PA&I planning function is discussed and how it relates to project direction and important analytical models developed by PA&I for its analytical and assessment activities are reviewed.

A review of techniques to determine alternative selection in design for remanufacturing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noor, A. Z. Mohamed; Fauadi, M. H. F. Md; Jafar, F. A.; Mohamad, N. R.; Yunos, A. S. Mohd

2017-10-01

This paper discusses the techniques used for optimization in manufacturing system. Although problem domain is focused on sustainable manufacturing, techniques used to optimize general manufacturing system were also discussed. Important aspects of Design for Remanufacturing (DFReM) considered include indexes, weighted average, grey decision making and Fuzzy TOPSIS. The limitation of existing techniques are most of them is highly based on decision maker’s perspective. Different experts may have different understanding and eventually scale it differently. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to determine available techniques and identify the lacking feature in it. Once all the techniques have been reviewed, a decision will be made by create another technique which should counter the lacking of discussed techniques. In this paper, shows that the hybrid computation of Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is suitable and fill the gap of all discussed technique.

Demonstrating Success: Web Analytics and Continuous Improvement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Loftus, Wayne

2012-01-01

As free and low-cost Web analytics tools become more sophisticated, libraries' approach to user analysis can become more nuanced and precise. Tracking appropriate metrics with a well-formulated analytics program can inform design decisions, demonstrate the degree to which those decisions have succeeded, and thereby inform the next iteration in the…

The Earth Data Analytic Services (EDAS) Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, T. P.; Duffy, D.

2017-12-01

Faced with unprecedented growth in earth data volume and demand, NASA has developed the Earth Data Analytic Services (EDAS) framework, a high performance big data analytics framework built on Apache Spark. This framework enables scientists to execute data processing workflows combining common analysis operations close to the massive data stores at NASA. The data is accessed in standard (NetCDF, HDF, etc.) formats in a POSIX file system and processed using vetted earth data analysis tools (ESMF, CDAT, NCO, etc.). EDAS utilizes a dynamic caching architecture, a custom distributed array framework, and a streaming parallel in-memory workflow for efficiently processing huge datasets within limited memory spaces with interactive response times. EDAS services are accessed via a WPS API being developed in collaboration with the ESGF Compute Working Team to support server-side analytics for ESGF. The API can be accessed using direct web service calls, a Python script, a Unix-like shell client, or a JavaScript-based web application. New analytic operations can be developed in Python, Java, or Scala (with support for other languages planned). Client packages in Python, Java/Scala, or JavaScript contain everything needed to build and submit EDAS requests. The EDAS architecture brings together the tools, data storage, and high-performance computing required for timely analysis of large-scale data sets, where the data resides, to ultimately produce societal benefits. It is is currently deployed at NASA in support of the Collaborative REAnalysis Technical Environment (CREATE) project, which centralizes numerous global reanalysis datasets onto a single advanced data analytics platform. This service enables decision makers to compare multiple reanalysis datasets and investigate trends, variability, and anomalies in earth system dynamics around the globe.

Bits and bytes: the future of radiology lies in informatics and information technology.

PubMed

Brink, James A; Arenson, Ronald L; Grist, Thomas M; Lewin, Jonathan S; Enzmann, Dieter

2017-09-01

Advances in informatics and information technology are sure to alter the practice of medical imaging and image-guided therapies substantially over the next decade. Each element of the imaging continuum will be affected by substantial increases in computing capacity coincident with the seamless integration of digital technology into our society at large. This article focuses primarily on areas where this IT transformation is likely to have a profound effect on the practice of radiology. • Clinical decision support ensures consistent and appropriate resource utilization. • Big data enables correlation of health information across multiple domains. • Data mining advances the quality of medical decision-making. • Business analytics allow radiologists to maximize the benefits of imaging resources.

Value-based decision making via sequential sampling with hierarchical competition and attentional modulation

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

In principle, formal dynamical models of decision making hold the potential to represent fundamental computations underpinning value-based (i.e., preferential) decisions in addition to perceptual decisions. Sequential-sampling models such as the race model and the drift-diffusion model that are grounded in simplicity, analytical tractability, and optimality remain popular, but some of their more recent counterparts have instead been designed with an aim for more feasibility as architectures to be implemented by actual neural systems. Connectionist models are proposed herein at an intermediate level of analysis that bridges mental phenomena and underlying neurophysiological mechanisms. Several such models drawing elements from the established race, drift-diffusion, feedforward-inhibition, divisive-normalization, and competing-accumulator models were tested with respect to fitting empirical data from human participants making choices between foods on the basis of hedonic value rather than a traditional perceptual attribute. Even when considering performance at emulating behavior alone, more neurally plausible models were set apart from more normative race or drift-diffusion models both quantitatively and qualitatively despite remaining parsimonious. To best capture the paradigm, a novel six-parameter computational model was formulated with features including hierarchical levels of competition via mutual inhibition as well as a static approximation of attentional modulation, which promotes “winner-take-all” processing. Moreover, a meta-analysis encompassing several related experiments validated the robustness of model-predicted trends in humans’ value-based choices and concomitant reaction times. These findings have yet further implications for analysis of neurophysiological data in accordance with computational modeling, which is also discussed in this new light. PMID:29077746

Value-based decision making via sequential sampling with hierarchical competition and attentional modulation.

PubMed

Colas, Jaron T

2017-01-01

In principle, formal dynamical models of decision making hold the potential to represent fundamental computations underpinning value-based (i.e., preferential) decisions in addition to perceptual decisions. Sequential-sampling models such as the race model and the drift-diffusion model that are grounded in simplicity, analytical tractability, and optimality remain popular, but some of their more recent counterparts have instead been designed with an aim for more feasibility as architectures to be implemented by actual neural systems. Connectionist models are proposed herein at an intermediate level of analysis that bridges mental phenomena and underlying neurophysiological mechanisms. Several such models drawing elements from the established race, drift-diffusion, feedforward-inhibition, divisive-normalization, and competing-accumulator models were tested with respect to fitting empirical data from human participants making choices between foods on the basis of hedonic value rather than a traditional perceptual attribute. Even when considering performance at emulating behavior alone, more neurally plausible models were set apart from more normative race or drift-diffusion models both quantitatively and qualitatively despite remaining parsimonious. To best capture the paradigm, a novel six-parameter computational model was formulated with features including hierarchical levels of competition via mutual inhibition as well as a static approximation of attentional modulation, which promotes "winner-take-all" processing. Moreover, a meta-analysis encompassing several related experiments validated the robustness of model-predicted trends in humans' value-based choices and concomitant reaction times. These findings have yet further implications for analysis of neurophysiological data in accordance with computational modeling, which is also discussed in this new light.

Hierarchical semi-numeric method for pairwise fuzzy group decision making.

PubMed

Marimin, M; Umano, M; Hatono, I; Tamura, H

2002-01-01

Gradual improvements to a single-level semi-numeric method, i.e., linguistic labels preference representation by fuzzy sets computation for pairwise fuzzy group decision making are summarized. The method is extended to solve multiple criteria hierarchical structure pairwise fuzzy group decision-making problems. The problems are hierarchically structured into focus, criteria, and alternatives. Decision makers express their evaluations of criteria and alternatives based on each criterion by using linguistic labels. The labels are converted into and processed in triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs). Evaluations of criteria yield relative criteria weights. Evaluations of the alternatives, based on each criterion, yield a degree of preference for each alternative or a degree of satisfaction for each preference value. By using a neat ordered weighted average (OWA) or a fuzzy weighted average operator, solutions obtained based on each criterion are aggregated into final solutions. The hierarchical semi-numeric method is suitable for solving a larger and more complex pairwise fuzzy group decision-making problem. The proposed method has been verified and applied to solve some real cases and is compared to Saaty's (1996) analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method.

Influence of analytical bias and imprecision on the number of false positive results using Guideline-Driven Medical Decision Limits.

PubMed

Hyltoft Petersen, Per; Klee, George G

2014-03-20

Diagnostic decisions based on decision limits according to medical guidelines are different from the majority of clinical decisions due to the strict dichotomization of patients into diseased and non-diseased. Consequently, the influence of analytical performance is more critical than for other diagnostic decisions where much other information is included. The aim of this opinion paper is to investigate consequences of analytical quality and other circumstances for the outcome of "Guideline-Driven Medical Decision Limits". Effects of analytical bias and imprecision should be investigated separately and analytical quality specifications should be estimated accordingly. Use of sharp decision limits doesn't consider biological variation and effects of this variation are closely connected with the effects of analytical performance. Such relationships are investigated for the guidelines for HbA1c in diagnosis of diabetes and in risk of coronary heart disease based on serum cholesterol. The effects of a second sampling in diagnosis give dramatic reduction in the effects of analytical quality showing minimal influence of imprecision up to 3 to 5% for two independent samplings, whereas the reduction in bias is more moderate and a 2% increase in concentration doubles the percentage of false positive diagnoses, both for HbA1c and cholesterol. An alternative approach comes from the current application of guidelines for follow-up laboratory tests according to clinical procedure orders, e.g. frequency of parathyroid hormone requests as a function of serum calcium concentrations. Here, the specifications for bias can be evaluated from the functional increase in requests for increasing serum calcium concentrations. In consequence of the difficulties with biological variation and the practical utilization of concentration dependence of frequency of follow-up laboratory tests already in use, a kind of probability function for diagnosis as function of the key-analyte is proposed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reprint of "Influence of analytical bias and imprecision on the number of false positive results using Guideline-Driven Medical Decision Limits".

PubMed

Hyltoft Petersen, Per; Klee, George G

2014-05-15

Diagnostic decisions based on decision limits according to medical guidelines are different from the majority of clinical decisions due to the strict dichotomization of patients into diseased and non-diseased. Consequently, the influence of analytical performance is more critical than for other diagnostic decisions where much other information is included. The aim of this opinion paper is to investigate consequences of analytical quality and other circumstances for the outcome of "Guideline-Driven Medical Decision Limits". Effects of analytical bias and imprecision should be investigated separately and analytical quality specifications should be estimated accordingly. Use of sharp decision limits doesn't consider biological variation and effects of this variation are closely connected with the effects of analytical performance. Such relationships are investigated for the guidelines for HbA1c in diagnosis of diabetes and in risk of coronary heart disease based on serum cholesterol. The effects of a second sampling in diagnosis give dramatic reduction in the effects of analytical quality showing minimal influence of imprecision up to 3 to 5% for two independent samplings, whereas the reduction in bias is more moderate and a 2% increase in concentration doubles the percentage of false positive diagnoses, both for HbA1c and cholesterol. An alternative approach comes from the current application of guidelines for follow-up laboratory tests according to clinical procedure orders, e.g. frequency of parathyroid hormone requests as a function of serum calcium concentrations. Here, the specifications for bias can be evaluated from the functional increase in requests for increasing serum calcium concentrations. In consequence of the difficulties with biological variation and the practical utilization of concentration dependence of frequency of follow-up laboratory tests already in use, a kind of probability function for diagnosis as function of the key-analyte is proposed. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A survey on platforms for big data analytics.

PubMed

Singh, Dilpreet; Reddy, Chandan K

The primary purpose of this paper is to provide an in-depth analysis of different platforms available for performing big data analytics. This paper surveys different hardware platforms available for big data analytics and assesses the advantages and drawbacks of each of these platforms based on various metrics such as scalability, data I/O rate, fault tolerance, real-time processing, data size supported and iterative task support. In addition to the hardware, a detailed description of the software frameworks used within each of these platforms is also discussed along with their strengths and drawbacks. Some of the critical characteristics described here can potentially aid the readers in making an informed decision about the right choice of platforms depending on their computational needs. Using a star ratings table, a rigorous qualitative comparison between different platforms is also discussed for each of the six characteristics that are critical for the algorithms of big data analytics. In order to provide more insights into the effectiveness of each of the platform in the context of big data analytics, specific implementation level details of the widely used k-means clustering algorithm on various platforms are also described in the form pseudocode.

Collaborative Visual Analytics: A Health Analytics Approach to Injury Prevention

PubMed Central

Fisher, Brian; Smith, Jennifer; Pike, Ian

2017-01-01

Background: Accurate understanding of complex health data is critical in order to deal with wicked health problems and make timely decisions. Wicked problems refer to ill-structured and dynamic problems that combine multidimensional elements, which often preclude the conventional problem solving approach. This pilot study introduces visual analytics (VA) methods to multi-stakeholder decision-making sessions about child injury prevention; Methods: Inspired by the Delphi method, we introduced a novel methodology—group analytics (GA). GA was pilot-tested to evaluate the impact of collaborative visual analytics on facilitating problem solving and supporting decision-making. We conducted two GA sessions. Collected data included stakeholders’ observations, audio and video recordings, questionnaires, and follow up interviews. The GA sessions were analyzed using the Joint Activity Theory protocol analysis methods; Results: The GA methodology triggered the emergence of ‘common ground’ among stakeholders. This common ground evolved throughout the sessions to enhance stakeholders’ verbal and non-verbal communication, as well as coordination of joint activities and ultimately collaboration on problem solving and decision-making; Conclusions: Understanding complex health data is necessary for informed decisions. Equally important, in this case, is the use of the group analytics methodology to achieve ‘common ground’ among diverse stakeholders about health data and their implications. PMID:28895928

Collaborative Visual Analytics: A Health Analytics Approach to Injury Prevention.

PubMed

Al-Hajj, Samar; Fisher, Brian; Smith, Jennifer; Pike, Ian

2017-09-12

Background : Accurate understanding of complex health data is critical in order to deal with wicked health problems and make timely decisions. Wicked problems refer to ill-structured and dynamic problems that combine multidimensional elements, which often preclude the conventional problem solving approach. This pilot study introduces visual analytics (VA) methods to multi-stakeholder decision-making sessions about child injury prevention; Methods : Inspired by the Delphi method, we introduced a novel methodology-group analytics (GA). GA was pilot-tested to evaluate the impact of collaborative visual analytics on facilitating problem solving and supporting decision-making. We conducted two GA sessions. Collected data included stakeholders' observations, audio and video recordings, questionnaires, and follow up interviews. The GA sessions were analyzed using the Joint Activity Theory protocol analysis methods; Results : The GA methodology triggered the emergence of ' common g round ' among stakeholders. This common ground evolved throughout the sessions to enhance stakeholders' verbal and non-verbal communication, as well as coordination of joint activities and ultimately collaboration on problem solving and decision-making; Conclusion s : Understanding complex health data is necessary for informed decisions. Equally important, in this case, is the use of the group analytics methodology to achieve ' common ground' among diverse stakeholders about health data and their implications.

The role of decision analytic modeling in the health economic assessment of spinal intervention.

PubMed

Edwards, Natalie C; Skelly, Andrea C; Ziewacz, John E; Cahill, Kevin; McGirt, Matthew J

2014-10-15

Narrative review. To review the common tenets, strengths, and weaknesses of decision modeling for health economic assessment and to review the use of decision modeling in the spine literature to date. For the majority of spinal interventions, well-designed prospective, randomized, pragmatic cost-effectiveness studies that address the specific decision-in-need are lacking. Decision analytic modeling allows for the estimation of cost-effectiveness based on data available to date. Given the rising demands for proven value in spine care, the use of decision analytic modeling is rapidly increasing by clinicians and policy makers. This narrative review discusses the general components of decision analytic models, how decision analytic models are populated and the trade-offs entailed, makes recommendations for how users of spine intervention decision models might go about appraising the models, and presents an overview of published spine economic models. A proper, integrated, clinical, and economic critical appraisal is necessary in the evaluation of the strength of evidence provided by a modeling evaluation. As is the case with clinical research, all options for collecting health economic or value data are not without their limitations and flaws. There is substantial heterogeneity across the 20 spine intervention health economic modeling studies summarized with respect to study design, models used, reporting, and general quality. There is sparse evidence for populating spine intervention models. Results mostly showed that interventions were cost-effective based on $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year threshold. Spine care providers, as partners with their health economic colleagues, have unique clinical expertise and perspectives that are critical to interpret the strengths and weaknesses of health economic models. Health economic models must be critically appraised for both clinical validity and economic quality before altering health care policy, payment strategies, or patient care decisions. 4.

Insight and analysis problem solving in microbes to machines.

PubMed

Clark, Kevin B

2015-11-01

A key feature for obtaining solutions to difficult problems, insight is oftentimes vaguely regarded as a special discontinuous intellectual process and/or a cognitive restructuring of problem representation or goal approach. However, this nearly century-old state of art devised by the Gestalt tradition to explain the non-analytical or non-trial-and-error, goal-seeking aptitude of primate mentality tends to neglect problem-solving capabilities of lower animal phyla, Kingdoms other than Animalia, and advancing smart computational technologies built from biological, artificial, and composite media. Attempting to provide an inclusive, precise definition of insight, two major criteria of insight, discontinuous processing and problem restructuring, are here reframed using terminology and statistical mechanical properties of computational complexity classes. Discontinuous processing becomes abrupt state transitions in algorithmic/heuristic outcomes or in types of algorithms/heuristics executed by agents using classical and/or quantum computational models. And problem restructuring becomes combinatorial reorganization of resources, problem-type substitution, and/or exchange of computational models. With insight bounded by computational complexity, humans, ciliated protozoa, and complex technological networks, for example, show insight when restructuring time requirements, combinatorial complexity, and problem type to solve polynomial and nondeterministic polynomial decision problems. Similar effects are expected from other problem types, supporting the idea that insight might be an epiphenomenon of analytical problem solving and consequently a larger information processing framework. Thus, this computational complexity definition of insight improves the power, external and internal validity, and reliability of operational parameters with which to classify, investigate, and produce the phenomenon for computational agents ranging from microbes to man-made devices. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Value of Information Analysis for Time-lapse Seismic Data by Simulation-Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutta, G.; Mukerji, T.; Eidsvik, J.

2016-12-01

A novel method to estimate the Value of Information (VOI) of time-lapse seismic data in the context of reservoir development is proposed. VOI is a decision analytic metric quantifying the incremental value that would be created by collecting information prior to making a decision under uncertainty. The VOI has to be computed before collecting the information and can be used to justify its collection. Previous work on estimating the VOI of geophysical data has involved explicit approximation of the posterior distribution of reservoir properties given the data and then evaluating the prospect values for that posterior distribution of reservoir properties. Here, we propose to directly estimate the prospect values given the data by building a statistical relationship between them using regression. Various regression techniques such as Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR), Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) and k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN) are used to estimate the VOI, and the results compared. For a univariate Gaussian case, the VOI obtained from simulation-regression has been shown to be close to the analytical solution. Estimating VOI by simulation-regression is much less computationally expensive since the posterior distribution of reservoir properties given each possible dataset need not be modeled and the prospect values need not be evaluated for each such posterior distribution of reservoir properties. This method is flexible, since it does not require rigid model specification of posterior but rather fits conditional expectations non-parametrically from samples of values and data.

Interaction Junk: User Interaction-Based Evaluation of Visual Analytic Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Endert, Alexander; North, Chris

2012-10-14

With the growing need for visualization to aid users in understanding large, complex datasets, the ability for users to interact and explore these datasets is critical. As visual analytic systems have advanced to leverage powerful computational models and data analytics capabilities, the modes by which users engage and interact with the information are limited. Often, users are taxed with directly manipulating parameters of these models through traditional GUIs (e.g., using sliders to directly manipulate the value of a parameter). However, the purpose of user interaction in visual analytic systems is to enable visual data exploration – where users can focusmore » on their task, as opposed to the tool or system. As a result, users can engage freely in data exploration and decision-making, for the purpose of gaining insight. In this position paper, we discuss how evaluating visual analytic systems can be approached through user interaction analysis, where the goal is to minimize the cognitive translation between the visual metaphor and the mode of interaction (i.e., reducing the “Interactionjunk”). We motivate this concept through a discussion of traditional GUIs used in visual analytics for direct manipulation of model parameters, and the importance of designing interactions the support visual data exploration.« less

The Climate Data Analytic Services (CDAS) Framework.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxwell, T. P.; Duffy, D.

2016-12-01

Faced with unprecedented growth in climate data volume and demand, NASA has developed the Climate Data Analytic Services (CDAS) framework. This framework enables scientists to execute data processing workflows combining common analysis operations in a high performance environment close to the massive data stores at NASA. The data is accessed in standard (NetCDF, HDF, etc.) formats in a POSIX file system and processed using vetted climate data analysis tools (ESMF, CDAT, NCO, etc.). A dynamic caching architecture enables interactive response times. CDAS utilizes Apache Spark for parallelization and a custom array framework for processing huge datasets within limited memory spaces. CDAS services are accessed via a WPS API being developed in collaboration with the ESGF Compute Working Team to support server-side analytics for ESGF. The API can be accessed using either direct web service calls, a python script, a unix-like shell client, or a javascript-based web application. Client packages in python, scala, or javascript contain everything needed to make CDAS requests. The CDAS architecture brings together the tools, data storage, and high-performance computing required for timely analysis of large-scale data sets, where the data resides, to ultimately produce societal benefits. It is is currently deployed at NASA in support of the Collaborative REAnalysis Technical Environment (CREATE) project, which centralizes numerous global reanalysis datasets onto a single advanced data analytics platform. This service permits decision makers to investigate climate changes around the globe, inspect model trends and variability, and compare multiple reanalysis datasets.

Enabling Data-Driven Methodologies Across the Data Lifecycle and Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doyle, R. J.; Crichton, D.

2017-12-01

NASA has unlocked unprecedented scientific knowledge through exploration of the Earth, our solar system, and the larger universe. NASA is generating enormous amounts of data that are challenging traditional approaches to capturing, managing, analyzing and ultimately gaining scientific understanding from science data. New architectures, capabilities and methodologies are needed to span the entire observing system, from spacecraft to archive, while integrating data-driven discovery and analytic capabilities. NASA data have a definable lifecycle, from remote collection point to validated accessibility in multiple archives. Data challenges must be addressed across this lifecycle, to capture opportunities and avoid decisions that may limit or compromise what is achievable once data arrives at the archive. Data triage may be necessary when the collection capacity of the sensor or instrument overwhelms data transport or storage capacity. By migrating computational and analytic capability to the point of data collection, informed decisions can be made about which data to keep; in some cases, to close observational decision loops onboard, to enable attending to unexpected or transient phenomena. Along a different dimension than the data lifecycle, scientists and other end-users must work across an increasingly complex data ecosystem, where the range of relevant data is rarely owned by a single institution. To operate effectively, scalable data architectures and community-owned information models become essential. NASA's Planetary Data System is having success with this approach. Finally, there is the difficult challenge of reproducibility and trust. While data provenance techniques will be part of the solution, future interactive analytics environments must support an ability to provide a basis for a result: relevant data source and algorithms, uncertainty tracking, etc., to assure scientific integrity and to enable confident decision making. Advances in data science offer opportunities to gain new insights from space missions and their vast data collections. We are working to innovate new architectures, exploit emerging technologies, develop new data-driven methodologies, and transfer them across disciplines, while working across the dual dimensions of the data lifecycle and the data ecosystem.

Strategic analytics: towards fully embedding evidence in healthcare decision-making.

PubMed

Garay, Jason; Cartagena, Rosario; Esensoy, Ali Vahit; Handa, Kiren; Kane, Eli; Kaw, Neal; Sadat, Somayeh

2015-01-01

Cancer Care Ontario (CCO) has implemented multiple information technology solutions and collected health-system data to support its programs. There is now an opportunity to leverage these data and perform advanced end-to-end analytics that inform decisions around improving health-system performance. In 2014, CCO engaged in an extensive assessment of its current data capacity and capability, with the intent to drive increased use of data for evidence-based decision-making. The breadth and volume of data at CCO uniquely places the organization to contribute to not only system-wide operational reporting, but more advanced modelling of current and future state system management and planning. In 2012, CCO established a strategic analytics practice to assist the agency's programs contextualize and inform key business decisions and to provide support through innovative predictive analytics solutions. This paper describes the organizational structure, services and supporting operations that have enabled progress to date, and discusses the next steps towards the vision of embedding evidence fully into healthcare decision-making. Copyright © 2014 Longwoods Publishing.

Load balancing prediction method of cloud storage based on analytic hierarchy process and hybrid hierarchical genetic algorithm.

PubMed

Zhou, Xiuze; Lin, Fan; Yang, Lvqing; Nie, Jing; Tan, Qian; Zeng, Wenhua; Zhang, Nian

2016-01-01

With the continuous expansion of the cloud computing platform scale and rapid growth of users and applications, how to efficiently use system resources to improve the overall performance of cloud computing has become a crucial issue. To address this issue, this paper proposes a method that uses an analytic hierarchy process group decision (AHPGD) to evaluate the load state of server nodes. Training was carried out by using a hybrid hierarchical genetic algorithm (HHGA) for optimizing a radial basis function neural network (RBFNN). The AHPGD makes the aggregative indicator of virtual machines in cloud, and become input parameters of predicted RBFNN. Also, this paper proposes a new dynamic load balancing scheduling algorithm combined with a weighted round-robin algorithm, which uses the predictive periodical load value of nodes based on AHPPGD and RBFNN optimized by HHGA, then calculates the corresponding weight values of nodes and makes constant updates. Meanwhile, it keeps the advantages and avoids the shortcomings of static weighted round-robin algorithm.

Feasibility study on the use of groupware support for NASA source evaluation boards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bishop, Peter C.; Yoes, Cissy

1991-01-01

Groupware is a class of computer based systems that support groups engaged in a common task (or goal) and that provide an interface to a shared environment. A potential application for groupware is the source evaluation board (SEB) process used in the procurement of government contracts. This study was undertaken to (1) identify parts of the SEB process which are candidates for groupware supports; and (2) identify tools which could be used to support the candidate process. Two processes of the SEB were identified as good candidates for groupware support: (1) document generation - a coordination and communication process required to present and document the findings of an SEB; and (2) group decision making - a highly analytical and integrative decision process requiring a clear and supportable outcome.

BIG DATA ANALYTICS AND PRECISION ANIMAL AGRICULTURE SYMPOSIUM: Data to decisions.

PubMed

White, B J; Amrine, D E; Larson, R L

2018-04-14

Big data are frequently used in many facets of business and agronomy to enhance knowledge needed to improve operational decisions. Livestock operations collect data of sufficient quantity to perform predictive analytics. Predictive analytics can be defined as a methodology and suite of data evaluation techniques to generate a prediction for specific target outcomes. The objective of this manuscript is to describe the process of using big data and the predictive analytic framework to create tools to drive decisions in livestock production, health, and welfare. The predictive analytic process involves selecting a target variable, managing the data, partitioning the data, then creating algorithms, refining algorithms, and finally comparing accuracy of the created classifiers. The partitioning of the datasets allows model building and refining to occur prior to testing the predictive accuracy of the model with naive data to evaluate overall accuracy. Many different classification algorithms are available for predictive use and testing multiple algorithms can lead to optimal results. Application of a systematic process for predictive analytics using data that is currently collected or that could be collected on livestock operations will facilitate precision animal management through enhanced livestock operational decisions.

A Conceptual Analytics Model for an Outcome-Driven Quality Management Framework as Part of Professional Healthcare Education.

PubMed

Hervatis, Vasilis; Loe, Alan; Barman, Linda; O'Donoghue, John; Zary, Nabil

2015-10-06

Preparing the future health care professional workforce in a changing world is a significant undertaking. Educators and other decision makers look to evidence-based knowledge to improve quality of education. Analytics, the use of data to generate insights and support decisions, have been applied successfully across numerous application domains. Health care professional education is one area where great potential is yet to be realized. Previous research of Academic and Learning analytics has mainly focused on technical issues. The focus of this study relates to its practical implementation in the setting of health care education. The aim of this study is to create a conceptual model for a deeper understanding of the synthesizing process, and transforming data into information to support educators' decision making. A deductive case study approach was applied to develop the conceptual model. The analytics loop works both in theory and in practice. The conceptual model encompasses the underlying data, the quality indicators, and decision support for educators. The model illustrates how a theory can be applied to a traditional data-driven analytics approach, and alongside the context- or need-driven analytics approach.

A Conceptual Analytics Model for an Outcome-Driven Quality Management Framework as Part of Professional Healthcare Education

PubMed Central

Loe, Alan; Barman, Linda; O'Donoghue, John; Zary, Nabil

2015-01-01

Background Preparing the future health care professional workforce in a changing world is a significant undertaking. Educators and other decision makers look to evidence-based knowledge to improve quality of education. Analytics, the use of data to generate insights and support decisions, have been applied successfully across numerous application domains. Health care professional education is one area where great potential is yet to be realized. Previous research of Academic and Learning analytics has mainly focused on technical issues. The focus of this study relates to its practical implementation in the setting of health care education. Objective The aim of this study is to create a conceptual model for a deeper understanding of the synthesizing process, and transforming data into information to support educators’ decision making. Methods A deductive case study approach was applied to develop the conceptual model. Results The analytics loop works both in theory and in practice. The conceptual model encompasses the underlying data, the quality indicators, and decision support for educators. Conclusions The model illustrates how a theory can be applied to a traditional data-driven analytics approach, and alongside the context- or need-driven analytics approach. PMID:27731840

Impact of computer-based treatment planning software on clinical judgment of dental students for planning prosthodontic rehabilitation

PubMed Central

Deshpande, Saee; Chahande, Jayashree

2014-01-01

Purpose Successful prosthodontic rehabilitation involves making many interrelated clinical decisions which have an impact on each other. Self-directed computer-based training has been shown to be a very useful tool to develop synthetic and analytical problem-solving skills among students. Thus, a computer-based case study and treatment planning (CSTP) software program was developed which would allow students to work through the process of comprehensive, multidisciplinary treatment planning for patients in a structured and logical manner. The present study was aimed at assessing the effect of this CSTP software on the clinical judgment of dental students while planning prosthodontic rehabilitation and to assess the students’ perceptions about using the program for its intended use. Methods A CSTP software program was developed and validated. The impact of this program on the clinical decision making skills of dental graduates was evaluated by real life patient encounters, using a modified and validated mini-CEX. Students’ perceptions about the program were obtained by a pre-validated feedback questionnaire. Results The faculty assessment scores of clinical judgment improved significantly after the use of this program. The majority of students felt it was an informative, useful, and innovative way of learning and they strongly felt that they had learnt the logical progression of planning, the insight into decision making, and the need for flexibility in treatment planning after using this program. Conclusion CSTP software was well received by the students. There was significant improvement in students’ clinical judgment after using this program. It should thus be envisaged fundamentally as an adjunct to conventional teaching techniques to improve students’ decision making skills and confidence. PMID:25170288

epiDMS: Data Management and Analytics for Decision-Making From Epidemic Spread Simulation Ensembles.

PubMed

Liu, Sicong; Poccia, Silvestro; Candan, K Selçuk; Chowell, Gerardo; Sapino, Maria Luisa

2016-12-01

Carefully calibrated large-scale computational models of epidemic spread represent a powerful tool to support the decision-making process during epidemic emergencies. Epidemic models are being increasingly used for generating forecasts of the spatial-temporal progression of epidemics at different spatial scales and for assessing the likely impact of different intervention strategies. However, the management and analysis of simulation ensembles stemming from large-scale computational models pose challenges, particularly when dealing with multiple interdependent parameters, spanning multiple layers and geospatial frames, affected by complex dynamic processes operating at different resolutions. We describe and illustrate with examples a novel epidemic simulation data management system, epiDMS, that was developed to address the challenges that arise from the need to generate, search, visualize, and analyze, in a scalable manner, large volumes of epidemic simulation ensembles and observations during the progression of an epidemic. epiDMS is a publicly available system that facilitates management and analysis of large epidemic simulation ensembles. epiDMS aims to fill an important hole in decision-making during healthcare emergencies by enabling critical services with significant economic and health impact. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

A Decision Analysis Tool for Climate Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Omitaomu, Olufemi A; Parish, Esther S; Nugent, Philip J

Climate change related extreme events (such as flooding, storms, and drought) are already impacting millions of people globally at a cost of billions of dollars annually. Hence, there are urgent needs for urban areas to develop adaptation strategies that will alleviate the impacts of these extreme events. However, lack of appropriate decision support tools that match local applications is limiting local planning efforts. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis and optimization system with customized decision support modules built on geographic information system (GIS) platform to bridge this gap. This platform is called Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT). Formore » all Urban-CAT models, we divide a city into a grid with tens of thousands of cells; then compute a list of metrics for each cell from the GIS data. These metrics are used as independent variables to predict climate impacts, compute vulnerability score, and evaluate adaptation options. Overall, the Urban-CAT system has three layers: data layer (that contains spatial data, socio-economic and environmental data, and analytic data), middle layer (that handles data processing, model management, and GIS operation), and application layer (that provides climate impacts forecast, adaptation optimization, and site evaluation). The Urban-CAT platform can guide city and county governments in identifying and planning for effective climate change adaptation strategies.« less

Completing the Link between Exposure Science and Toxicology for Improved Environmental Health Decision Making: The Aggregate Exposure Pathway Framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Teeguarden, Justin G.; Tan, Yu-Mei; Edwards, Stephen W.

Driven by major scientific advances in analytical methods, biomonitoring, and computational exposure assessment, and a newly articulated vision for a greater impact in public health, the field of exposure science is undergoing a rapid transition from a field of observation to a field of prediction. Deployment of an organizational and predictive framework for exposure science analogous to the computationally enabled “systems approaches” used in the biological sciences is a necessary step in this evolution. Here we propose the aggregate exposure pathway (AEP) concept as the natural and complementary companion in the exposure sciences to the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) conceptmore » in the toxicological sciences. The AEP framework offers an intuitive approach to successful organization of exposure science data within individual units of prediction common to the field, setting the stage for exposure forecasting. Looking farther ahead, we envision direct linkages between aggregate exposure pathway and adverse outcome pathways, completing the source to outcome continuum and setting the stage for more efficient integration of exposure science and toxicity testing information. Together these frameworks form and inform a decision making framework with the flexibility for risk-based, hazard-based or exposure-based decisions.« less

Just-in-time Time Data Analytics and Visualization of Climate Simulations using the Bellerophon Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anantharaj, V. G.; Venzke, J.; Lingerfelt, E.; Messer, B.

2015-12-01

Climate model simulations are used to understand the evolution and variability of earth's climate. Unfortunately, high-resolution multi-decadal climate simulations can take days to weeks to complete. Typically, the simulation results are not analyzed until the model runs have ended. During the course of the simulation, the output may be processed periodically to ensure that the model is preforming as expected. However, most of the data analytics and visualization are not performed until the simulation is finished. The lengthy time period needed for the completion of the simulation constrains the productivity of climate scientists. Our implementation of near real-time data visualization analytics capabilities allows scientists to monitor the progress of their simulations while the model is running. Our analytics software executes concurrently in a co-scheduling mode, monitoring data production. When new data are generated by the simulation, a co-scheduled data analytics job is submitted to render visualization artifacts of the latest results. These visualization output are automatically transferred to Bellerophon's data server located at ORNL's Compute and Data Environment for Science (CADES) where they are processed and archived into Bellerophon's database. During the course of the experiment, climate scientists can then use Bellerophon's graphical user interface to view animated plots and their associated metadata. The quick turnaround from the start of the simulation until the data are analyzed permits research decisions and projections to be made days or sometimes even weeks sooner than otherwise possible! The supercomputer resources used to run the simulation are unaffected by co-scheduling the data visualization jobs, so the model runs continuously while the data are visualized. Our just-in-time data visualization software looks to increase climate scientists' productivity as climate modeling moves into exascale era of computing.

Knowledge Style Profiling: An Exploration of Cognitive, Temperament, Demographic and Organizational Characteristics among Decision Makers Using Advanced Analytical Technologies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Polito, Vincent A., Jr.

2010-01-01

The objective of this research was to explore the possibilities of identifying knowledge style factors that could be used as central elements of a professional business analyst's (PBA) performance attributes at work for those decision makers that use advanced analytical technologies on decision making tasks. Indicators of knowledge style were…

Patient Perspectives on Low-Dose Computed Tomography for Lung Cancer Screening, New Mexico, 2014

PubMed Central

Sussman, Andrew L.; Murrietta, Ambroshia M.; Getrich, Christina M.; Rhyne, Robert; Crowell, Richard E.; Taylor, Kathryn L.; Reifler, Ellen J.; Wescott, Pamela H.; Saeed, Ali I.; Hoffman, Richard M.

2016-01-01

Introduction National guidelines call for annual lung cancer screening for high-risk smokers using low-dose computed tomography (LDCT). The objective of our study was to characterize patient knowledge and attitudes about lung cancer screening, smoking cessation, and shared decision making by patient and health care provider. Methods We conducted semistructured qualitative interviews with patients with histories of heavy smoking who received care at a Federally Qualified Health Center (FQHC Clinic) and at a comprehensive cancer center-affiliated chest clinic (Chest Clinic) in Albuquerque, New Mexico. The interviews, conducted from February through September 2014, focused on perceptions about health screening, knowledge and attitudes about LDCT screening, and preferences regarding decision aids. We used a systematic iterative analytic process to identify preliminary and emergent themes and to create a coding structure. Results We reached thematic saturation after 22 interviews (10 at the FQHC Clinic, 12 at the Chest Clinic). Most patients were unaware of LDCT screening for lung cancer but were receptive to the test. Some smokers said they would consider quitting smoking if their screening result were positive. Concerns regarding screening were cost, radiation exposure, and transportation issues. To support decision making, most patients said they preferred one-on-one discussions with a provider. They also valued decision support tools (print materials, videos), but raised concerns about readability and Internet access. Conclusion Implementing lung cancer screening in sociodemographically diverse populations poses significant challenges. The value of tobacco cessation counseling cannot be overemphasized. Effective interventions for shared decision making to undergo lung cancer screening will need the active engagement of health care providers and will require the use of accessible decision aids designed for people with low health literacy. PMID:27536900

Next generation data systems and knowledge products to support agricultural producers and science-based policy decision making.

PubMed

Capalbo, Susan M; Antle, John M; Seavert, Clark

2017-07-01

Research on next generation agricultural systems models shows that the most important current limitation is data, both for on-farm decision support and for research investment and policy decision making. One of the greatest data challenges is to obtain reliable data on farm management decision making, both for current conditions and under scenarios of changed bio-physical and socio-economic conditions. This paper presents a framework for the use of farm-level and landscape-scale models and data to provide analysis that could be used in NextGen knowledge products, such as mobile applications or personal computer data analysis and visualization software. We describe two analytical tools - AgBiz Logic and TOA-MD - that demonstrate the current capability of farmlevel and landscape-scale models. The use of these tools is explored with a case study of an oilseed crop, Camelina sativa , which could be used to produce jet aviation fuel. We conclude with a discussion of innovations needed to facilitate the use of farm and policy-level models to generate data and analysis for improved knowledge products.

Overview of Aro Program on Network Science for Human Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

West, Bruce J.

This program brings together researchers from disparate disciplines to work on a complex research problem that defies confinement within any single discipline. Consequently, not only are new and rewarding solutions sought and obtained for a problem of importance to society and the Army, that is, the human dimension of complex networks, but, in addition, collaborations are established that would not otherwise have formed given the traditional disciplinary compartmentalization of research. This program develops the basic research foundation of a science of networks supporting the linkage between the physical and human (cognitive and social) domains as they relate to human decision making. The strategy is to extend the recent methods of non-equilibrium statistical physics to non-stationary, renewal stochastic processes that appear to be characteristic of the interactions among nodes in complex networks. We also pursue understanding of the phenomenon of synchronization, whose mathematical formulation has recently provided insight into how complex networks reach accommodation and cooperation. The theoretical analyses of complex networks, although mathematically rigorous, often elude analytic solutions and require computer simulation and computation to analyze the underlying dynamic process.

Tutorial in medical decision modeling incorporating waiting lines and queues using discrete event simulation.

PubMed

Jahn, Beate; Theurl, Engelbert; Siebert, Uwe; Pfeiffer, Karl-Peter

2010-01-01

In most decision-analytic models in health care, it is assumed that there is treatment without delay and availability of all required resources. Therefore, waiting times caused by limited resources and their impact on treatment effects and costs often remain unconsidered. Queuing theory enables mathematical analysis and the derivation of several performance measures of queuing systems. Nevertheless, an analytical approach with closed formulas is not always possible. Therefore, simulation techniques are used to evaluate systems that include queuing or waiting, for example, discrete event simulation. To include queuing in decision-analytic models requires a basic knowledge of queuing theory and of the underlying interrelationships. This tutorial introduces queuing theory. Analysts and decision-makers get an understanding of queue characteristics, modeling features, and its strength. Conceptual issues are covered, but the emphasis is on practical issues like modeling the arrival of patients. The treatment of coronary artery disease with percutaneous coronary intervention including stent placement serves as an illustrative queuing example. Discrete event simulation is applied to explicitly model resource capacities, to incorporate waiting lines and queues in the decision-analytic modeling example.

78 FR 28631 - Experian, Experian Healthcare (Medical Present Value (MPV)-Credit Services and Decision Analytics...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-15

...), Experian, Experian U.S. Headquarters: Corporate Departments (finance, HRMD, Contracts, Corporate Marketing...: Corporate Departments (finance, HRMD, Contracts, Corporate Marketing, Global Corporate Systems, Legal..., Business Information Services, Corporate Marketing, Credit Services, Data Management, Decision Analytics...

Evaluating child welfare policies with decision-analytic simulation models.

PubMed

Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D; Bailey, Stephanie L; Hurlburt, Michael S; Zhang, Jinjin; Snowden, Lonnie R; Wulczyn, Fred; Landsverk, John; Horwitz, Sarah M

2012-11-01

The objective was to demonstrate decision-analytic modeling in support of Child Welfare policymakers considering implementing evidence-based interventions. Outcomes included permanency (e.g., adoptions) and stability (e.g., foster placement changes). Analyses of a randomized trial of KEEP-a foster parenting intervention-and NSCAW-1 estimated placement change rates and KEEP's effects. A microsimulation model generalized these findings to other Child Welfare systems. The model projected that KEEP could increase permanency and stability, identifying strategies targeting higher-risk children and geographical regions that achieve benefits efficiently. Decision-analytic models enable planners to gauge the value of potential implementations.

Hospital site selection using fuzzy AHP and its derivatives.

PubMed

Vahidnia, Mohammad H; Alesheikh, Ali A; Alimohammadi, Abbas

2009-07-01

Environmental managers are commonly faced with sophisticated decisions, such as choosing the location of a new facility subject to multiple conflicting criteria. This paper considers the specific problem of creating a well-distributed network of hospitals that delivers its services to the target population with minimal time, pollution and cost. We develop a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis process that combines Geographical Information System (GIS) analysis with the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP), and use this process to determine the optimum site for a new hospital in the Tehran urban area. The GIS was used to calculate and classify governing criteria, while FAHP was used to evaluate the decision factors and their impacts on alternative sites. Three methods were used to estimate the total weights and priorities of the candidate sites: fuzzy extent analysis, center-of-area defuzzification, and the alpha-cut method. The three methods yield identical priorities for the five alternatives considered. Fuzzy extent analysis provides less discriminating power, but is simpler to implement and compute than the other two methods. The alpha-cut method is more complicated, but integrates the uncertainty and overall attitude of the decision-maker. The usefulness of the new hospital site is evaluated by computing an accessibility index for each pixel in the GIS, defined as the ratio of population density to travel time. With the addition of a new hospital at the optimum site, this index improved over about 6.5 percent of the geographical area.

Merging spatially variant physical process models under an optimized systems dynamics framework.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cain, William O.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Pierce, Suzanne A.

The complexity of water resource issues, its interconnectedness to other systems, and the involvement of competing stakeholders often overwhelm decision-makers and inhibit the creation of clear management strategies. While a range of modeling tools and procedures exist to address these problems, they tend to be case specific and generally emphasize either a quantitative and overly analytic approach or present a qualitative dialogue-based approach lacking the ability to fully explore consequences of different policy decisions. The integration of these two approaches is needed to drive toward final decisions and engender effective outcomes. Given these limitations, the Computer Assisted Dispute Resolution systemmore » (CADRe) was developed to aid in stakeholder inclusive resource planning. This modeling and negotiation system uniquely addresses resource concerns by developing a spatially varying system dynamics model as well as innovative global optimization search techniques to maximize outcomes from participatory dialogues. Ultimately, the core system architecture of CADRe also serves as the cornerstone upon which key scientific innovation and challenges can be addressed.« less

Introduction to SIMRAND: Simulation of research and development project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miles, R. F., Jr.

1982-01-01

SIMRAND: SIMulation of Research ANd Development Projects is a methodology developed to aid the engineering and management decision process in the selection of the optimal set of systems or tasks to be funded on a research and development project. A project may have a set of systems or tasks under consideration for which the total cost exceeds the allocated budget. Other factors such as personnel and facilities may also enter as constraints. Thus the project's management must select, from among the complete set of systems or tasks under consideration, a partial set that satisfies all project constraints. The SIMRAND methodology uses analytical techniques and probability theory, decision analysis of management science, and computer simulation, in the selection of this optimal partial set. The SIMRAND methodology is truly a management tool. It initially specifies the information that must be generated by the engineers, thus providing information for the management direction of the engineers, and it ranks the alternatives according to the preferences of the decision makers.

Determinants of judgment and decision making quality: the interplay between information processing style and situational factors

PubMed Central

Ayal, Shahar; Rusou, Zohar; Zakay, Dan; Hochman, Guy

2015-01-01

A framework is presented to better characterize the role of individual differences in information processing style and their interplay with contextual factors in determining decision making quality. In Experiment 1, we show that individual differences in information processing style are flexible and can be modified by situational factors. Specifically, a situational manipulation that induced an analytical mode of thought improved decision quality. In Experiment 2, we show that this improvement in decision quality is highly contingent on the compatibility between the dominant thinking mode and the nature of the task. That is, encouraging an intuitive mode of thought led to better performance on an intuitive task but hampered performance on an analytical task. The reverse pattern was obtained when an analytical mode of thought was encouraged. We discuss the implications of these results for the assessment of decision making competence, and suggest practical directions to help individuals better adjust their information processing style to the situation at hand and make optimal decisions. PMID:26284011

Determinants of judgment and decision making quality: the interplay between information processing style and situational factors.

PubMed

Ayal, Shahar; Rusou, Zohar; Zakay, Dan; Hochman, Guy

2015-01-01

A framework is presented to better characterize the role of individual differences in information processing style and their interplay with contextual factors in determining decision making quality. In Experiment 1, we show that individual differences in information processing style are flexible and can be modified by situational factors. Specifically, a situational manipulation that induced an analytical mode of thought improved decision quality. In Experiment 2, we show that this improvement in decision quality is highly contingent on the compatibility between the dominant thinking mode and the nature of the task. That is, encouraging an intuitive mode of thought led to better performance on an intuitive task but hampered performance on an analytical task. The reverse pattern was obtained when an analytical mode of thought was encouraged. We discuss the implications of these results for the assessment of decision making competence, and suggest practical directions to help individuals better adjust their information processing style to the situation at hand and make optimal decisions.

Benefits and limitations of using decision analytic tools to assess uncertainty and prioritize Landscape Conservation Cooperative information needs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Post van der Burg, Max; Cullinane Thomas, Catherine; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Nelson, Richard D.

2016-01-01

The Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) are a network of partnerships throughout North America that are tasked with integrating science and management to support more effective delivery of conservation at a landscape scale. In order to achieve this integration, some LCCs have adopted the approach of providing their partners with better scientific information in an effort to facilitate more effective and coordinated conservation decisions. Taking this approach has led many LCCs to begin funding research to provide the information for improved decision making. To ensure that funding goes to research projects with the highest likelihood of leading to more integrated broad scale conservation, some LCCs have also developed approaches for prioritizing which information needs will be of most benefit to their partnerships. We describe two case studies in which decision analytic tools were used to quantitatively assess the relative importance of information for decisions made by partners in the Plains and Prairie Potholes LCC. The results of the case studies point toward a few valuable lessons in terms of using these tools with LCCs. Decision analytic tools tend to help shift focus away from research oriented discussions and toward discussions about how information is used in making better decisions. However, many technical experts do not have enough knowledge about decision making contexts to fully inform the latter type of discussion. When assessed in the right decision context, however, decision analyses can point out where uncertainties actually affect optimal decisions and where they do not. This helps technical experts understand that not all research is valuable in improving decision making. But perhaps most importantly, our results suggest that decision analytic tools may be more useful for LCCs as way of developing integrated objectives for coordinating partner decisions across the landscape, rather than simply ranking research priorities.

Technosocial Predictive Analytics in Support of Naturalistic Decision Making

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sanfilippo, Antonio P.; Cowell, Andrew J.; Malone, Elizabeth L.

2009-06-23

A main challenge we face in fostering sustainable growth is to anticipate outcomes through predictive and proactive across domains as diverse as energy, security, the environment, health and finance in order to maximize opportunities, influence outcomes and counter adversities. The goal of this paper is to present new methods for anticipatory analytical thinking which address this challenge through the development of a multi-perspective approach to predictive modeling as a core to a creative decision making process. This approach is uniquely multidisciplinary in that it strives to create decision advantage through the integration of human and physical models, and leverages knowledgemore » management and visual analytics to support creative thinking by facilitating the achievement of interoperable knowledge inputs and enhancing the user’s cognitive access. We describe a prototype system which implements this approach and exemplify its functionality with reference to a use case in which predictive modeling is paired with analytic gaming to support collaborative decision-making in the domain of agricultural land management.« less

Tire Changes, Fresh Air, and Yellow Flags: Challenges in Predictive Analytics for Professional Racing.

PubMed

Tulabandhula, Theja; Rudin, Cynthia

2014-06-01

Our goal is to design a prediction and decision system for real-time use during a professional car race. In designing a knowledge discovery process for racing, we faced several challenges that were overcome only when domain knowledge of racing was carefully infused within statistical modeling techniques. In this article, we describe how we leveraged expert knowledge of the domain to produce a real-time decision system for tire changes within a race. Our forecasts have the potential to impact how racing teams can optimize strategy by making tire-change decisions to benefit their rank position. Our work significantly expands previous research on sports analytics, as it is the only work on analytical methods for within-race prediction and decision making for professional car racing.

User needs elicitation via analytic hierarchy process (AHP). A case study on a Computed Tomography (CT) scanner.

PubMed

Pecchia, Leandro; Martin, Jennifer L; Ragozzino, Angela; Vanzanella, Carmela; Scognamiglio, Arturo; Mirarchi, Luciano; Morgan, Stephen P

2013-01-05

The rigorous elicitation of user needs is a crucial step for both medical device design and purchasing. However, user needs elicitation is often based on qualitative methods whose findings can be difficult to integrate into medical decision-making. This paper describes the application of AHP to elicit user needs for a new CT scanner for use in a public hospital. AHP was used to design a hierarchy of 12 needs for a new CT scanner, grouped into 4 homogenous categories, and to prepare a paper questionnaire to investigate the relative priorities of these. The questionnaire was completed by 5 senior clinicians working in a variety of clinical specialisations and departments in the same Italian public hospital. Although safety and performance were considered the most important issues, user needs changed according to clinical scenario. For elective surgery, the five most important needs were: spatial resolution, processing software, radiation dose, patient monitoring, and contrast medium. For emergency, the top five most important needs were: patient monitoring, radiation dose, contrast medium control, speed run, spatial resolution. AHP effectively supported user need elicitation, helping to develop an analytic and intelligible framework of decision-making. User needs varied according to working scenario (elective versus emergency medicine) more than clinical specialization. This method should be considered by practitioners involved in decisions about new medical technology, whether that be during device design or before deciding whether to allocate budgets for new medical devices according to clinical functions or according to hospital department.

Group decision making with the analytic hierarchy process in benefit-risk assessment: a tutorial.

PubMed

Hummel, J Marjan; Bridges, John F P; IJzerman, Maarten J

2014-01-01

The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been increasingly applied as a technique for multi-criteria decision analysis in healthcare. The AHP can aid decision makers in selecting the most valuable technology for patients, while taking into account multiple, and even conflicting, decision criteria. This tutorial illustrates the procedural steps of the AHP in supporting group decision making about new healthcare technology, including (1) identifying the decision goal, decision criteria, and alternative healthcare technologies to compare, (2) structuring the decision criteria, (3) judging the value of the alternative technologies on each decision criterion, (4) judging the importance of the decision criteria, (5) calculating group judgments, (6) analyzing the inconsistency in judgments, (7) calculating the overall value of the technologies, and (8) conducting sensitivity analyses. The AHP is illustrated via a hypothetical example, adapted from an empirical AHP analysis on the benefits and risks of tissue regeneration to repair small cartilage lesions in the knee.

Podium: Ranking Data Using Mixed-Initiative Visual Analytics.

PubMed

Wall, Emily; Das, Subhajit; Chawla, Ravish; Kalidindi, Bharath; Brown, Eli T; Endert, Alex

2018-01-01

People often rank and order data points as a vital part of making decisions. Multi-attribute ranking systems are a common tool used to make these data-driven decisions. Such systems often take the form of a table-based visualization in which users assign weights to the attributes representing the quantifiable importance of each attribute to a decision, which the system then uses to compute a ranking of the data. However, these systems assume that users are able to quantify their conceptual understanding of how important particular attributes are to a decision. This is not always easy or even possible for users to do. Rather, people often have a more holistic understanding of the data. They form opinions that data point A is better than data point B but do not necessarily know which attributes are important. To address these challenges, we present a visual analytic application to help people rank multi-variate data points. We developed a prototype system, Podium, that allows users to drag rows in the table to rank order data points based on their perception of the relative value of the data. Podium then infers a weighting model using Ranking SVM that satisfies the user's data preferences as closely as possible. Whereas past systems help users understand the relationships between data points based on changes to attribute weights, our approach helps users to understand the attributes that might inform their understanding of the data. We present two usage scenarios to describe some of the potential uses of our proposed technique: (1) understanding which attributes contribute to a user's subjective preferences for data, and (2) deconstructing attributes of importance for existing rankings. Our proposed approach makes powerful machine learning techniques more usable to those who may not have expertise in these areas.

NeuroMind: Past, present, and future.

PubMed

Kubben, Pieter L

2017-01-01

This narrative report describes the underlying rationale and technical developments of NeuroMind, a mobile clinical decision support system for neurosurgery. From the perspective of a neurosurgeon - (app) developer it explains how technical progress has shaped the world's "most rated and highest rated" neurosurgical mobile application, with particular attention for operating system diversity on mobile hardware, cookbook medicine, regulatory affairs (in particular regarding software as a medical device), and new developments in the field of clinical data science, machine learning, and predictive analytics. Finally, the concept of "computational neurosurgery" is introduced as a vehicle to reach new horizons in neurosurgery.

NeuroMind: Past, present, and future

PubMed Central

Kubben, Pieter L.

2017-01-01

This narrative report describes the underlying rationale and technical developments of NeuroMind, a mobile clinical decision support system for neurosurgery. From the perspective of a neurosurgeon – (app) developer it explains how technical progress has shaped the world's “most rated and highest rated” neurosurgical mobile application, with particular attention for operating system diversity on mobile hardware, cookbook medicine, regulatory affairs (in particular regarding software as a medical device), and new developments in the field of clinical data science, machine learning, and predictive analytics. Finally, the concept of “computational neurosurgery” is introduced as a vehicle to reach new horizons in neurosurgery. PMID:28966822

Fast, cheap and in control: spectral imaging with handheld devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gooding, Edward A.; Deutsch, Erik R.; Huehnerhoff, Joseph; Hajian, Arsen R.

2017-05-01

Remote sensing has moved out of the laboratory and into the real world. Instruments using reflection or Raman imaging modalities become faster, cheaper and more powerful annually. Enabling technologies include virtual slit spectrometer design, high power multimode diode lasers, fast open-loop scanning systems, low-noise IR-sensitive array detectors and low-cost computers with touchscreen interfaces. High-volume manufacturing assembles these components into inexpensive portable or handheld devices that make possible sophisticated decision-making based on robust data analytics. Examples include threat, hazmat and narcotics detection; remote gas sensing; biophotonic screening; environmental remediation and a host of other applications.

An Advanced Framework for Improving Situational Awareness in Electric Power Grid Operation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Yousu; Huang, Zhenyu; Zhou, Ning

With the deployment of new smart grid technologies and the penetration of renewable energy in power systems, significant uncertainty and variability is being introduced into power grid operation. Traditionally, the Energy Management System (EMS) operates the power grid in a deterministic mode, and thus will not be sufficient for the future control center in a stochastic environment with faster dynamics. One of the main challenges is to improve situational awareness. This paper reviews the current status of power grid operation and presents a vision of improving wide-area situational awareness for a future control center. An advanced framework, consisting of parallelmore » state estimation, state prediction, parallel contingency selection, parallel contingency analysis, and advanced visual analytics, is proposed to provide capabilities needed for better decision support by utilizing high performance computing (HPC) techniques and advanced visual analytic techniques. Research results are presented to support the proposed vision and framework.« less

Combining computational analyses and interactive visualization for document exploration and sensemaking in jigsaw.

PubMed

Görg, Carsten; Liu, Zhicheng; Kihm, Jaeyeon; Choo, Jaegul; Park, Haesun; Stasko, John

2013-10-01

Investigators across many disciplines and organizations must sift through large collections of text documents to understand and piece together information. Whether they are fighting crime, curing diseases, deciding what car to buy, or researching a new field, inevitably investigators will encounter text documents. Taking a visual analytics approach, we integrate multiple text analysis algorithms with a suite of interactive visualizations to provide a flexible and powerful environment that allows analysts to explore collections of documents while sensemaking. Our particular focus is on the process of integrating automated analyses with interactive visualizations in a smooth and fluid manner. We illustrate this integration through two example scenarios: an academic researcher examining InfoVis and VAST conference papers and a consumer exploring car reviews while pondering a purchase decision. Finally, we provide lessons learned toward the design and implementation of visual analytics systems for document exploration and understanding.

A Model for Developing Clinical Analytics Capacity: Closing the Loops on Outcomes to Optimize Quality.

PubMed

Eggert, Corinne; Moselle, Kenneth; Protti, Denis; Sanders, Dale

2017-01-01

Closed Loop Analytics© is receiving growing interest in healthcare as a term referring to information technology, local data and clinical analytics working together to generate evidence for improvement. The Closed Loop Analytics model consists of three loops corresponding to the decision-making levels of an organization and the associated data within each loop - Patients, Protocols, and Populations. The authors propose that each of these levels should utilize the same ecosystem of electronic health record (EHR) and enterprise data warehouse (EDW) enabled data, in a closed-loop fashion, with that data being repackaged and delivered to suit the analytic and decision support needs of each level, in support of better outcomes.

An Analytic Network Process approach for the environmental aspect selection problem — A case study for a hand blender

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bereketli Zafeirakopoulos, Ilke, E-mail: ibereketli@gsu.edu.tr; Erol Genevois, Mujde, E-mail: merol@gsu.edu.tr

Life Cycle Assessment is a tool to assess, in a systematic way, the environmental aspects and its potential environmental impacts and resources used throughout a product's life cycle. It is widely accepted and considered as one of the most powerful tools to support decision-making processes used in ecodesign and sustainable production in order to learn about the most problematic parts and life cycle phases of a product and to have a projection for future improvements. However, since Life Cycle Assessment is a cost and time intensive method, companies do not intend to carry out a full version of it, exceptmore » for large corporate ones. Especially for small and medium sized enterprises, which do not have enough budget for and knowledge on sustainable production and ecodesign approaches, focusing only on the most important possible environmental aspect is unavoidable. In this direction, finding the right environmental aspect to work on is crucial for the companies. In this study, a multi-criteria decision-making methodology, Analytic Network Process is proposed to select the most relevant environmental aspect. The proposed methodology aims at providing a simplified environmental assessment to producers. It is applied for a hand blender, which is a member of the Electrical and Electronic Equipment family. The decision criteria for the environmental aspects and relations of dependence are defined. The evaluation is made by the Analytic Network Process in order to create a realistic approach to inter-dependencies among the criteria. The results are computed via the Super Decisions software. Finally, it is observed that the procedure is completed in less time, with less data, with less cost and in a less subjective way than conventional approaches. - Highlights: • We present a simplified environmental assessment methodology to support LCA. • ANP is proposed to select the most relevant environmental aspect. • ANP deals well with the interdependencies between aspects and impacts. • The methodology is less subjective, less complicated, and less time–money consuming. • The proposed methodology is suitable for use by SMEs.« less

Nationwide Multicenter Reference Interval Study for 28 Common Biochemical Analytes in China.

PubMed

Xia, Liangyu; Chen, Ming; Liu, Min; Tao, Zhihua; Li, Shijun; Wang, Liang; Cheng, Xinqi; Qin, Xuzhen; Han, Jianhua; Li, Pengchang; Hou, Li'an; Yu, Songlin; Ichihara, Kiyoshi; Qiu, Ling

2016-03-01

A nationwide multicenter study was conducted in the China to explore sources of variation of reference values and establish reference intervals for 28 common biochemical analytes, as a part of the International Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine, Committee on Reference Intervals and Decision Limits (IFCC/C-RIDL) global study on reference values. A total of 3148 apparently healthy volunteers were recruited in 6 cities covering a wide area in China. Blood samples were tested in 2 central laboratories using Beckman Coulter AU5800 chemistry analyzers. Certified reference materials and value-assigned serum panel were used for standardization of test results. Multiple regression analysis was performed to explore sources of variation. Need for partition of reference intervals was evaluated based on 3-level nested ANOVA. After secondary exclusion using the latent abnormal values exclusion method, reference intervals were derived by a parametric method using the modified Box-Cox formula. Test results of 20 analytes were made traceable to reference measurement procedures. By the ANOVA, significant sex-related and age-related differences were observed in 12 and 12 analytes, respectively. A small regional difference was observed in the results for albumin, glucose, and sodium. Multiple regression analysis revealed BMI-related changes in results of 9 analytes for man and 6 for woman. Reference intervals of 28 analytes were computed with 17 analytes partitioned by sex and/or age. In conclusion, reference intervals of 28 common chemistry analytes applicable to Chinese Han population were established by use of the latest methodology. Reference intervals of 20 analytes traceable to reference measurement procedures can be used as common reference intervals, whereas others can be used as the assay system-specific reference intervals in China.

Nationwide Multicenter Reference Interval Study for 28 Common Biochemical Analytes in China

PubMed Central

Xia, Liangyu; Chen, Ming; Liu, Min; Tao, Zhihua; Li, Shijun; Wang, Liang; Cheng, Xinqi; Qin, Xuzhen; Han, Jianhua; Li, Pengchang; Hou, Li’an; Yu, Songlin; Ichihara, Kiyoshi; Qiu, Ling

2016-01-01

Abstract A nationwide multicenter study was conducted in the China to explore sources of variation of reference values and establish reference intervals for 28 common biochemical analytes, as a part of the International Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine, Committee on Reference Intervals and Decision Limits (IFCC/C-RIDL) global study on reference values. A total of 3148 apparently healthy volunteers were recruited in 6 cities covering a wide area in China. Blood samples were tested in 2 central laboratories using Beckman Coulter AU5800 chemistry analyzers. Certified reference materials and value-assigned serum panel were used for standardization of test results. Multiple regression analysis was performed to explore sources of variation. Need for partition of reference intervals was evaluated based on 3-level nested ANOVA. After secondary exclusion using the latent abnormal values exclusion method, reference intervals were derived by a parametric method using the modified Box–Cox formula. Test results of 20 analytes were made traceable to reference measurement procedures. By the ANOVA, significant sex-related and age-related differences were observed in 12 and 12 analytes, respectively. A small regional difference was observed in the results for albumin, glucose, and sodium. Multiple regression analysis revealed BMI-related changes in results of 9 analytes for man and 6 for woman. Reference intervals of 28 analytes were computed with 17 analytes partitioned by sex and/or age. In conclusion, reference intervals of 28 common chemistry analytes applicable to Chinese Han population were established by use of the latest methodology. Reference intervals of 20 analytes traceable to reference measurement procedures can be used as common reference intervals, whereas others can be used as the assay system-specific reference intervals in China. PMID:26945390

Strategies in Forecasting Outcomes in Ethical Decision-making: Identifying and Analyzing the Causes of the Problem

PubMed Central

Beeler, Cheryl K.; Antes, Alison L.; Wang, Xiaoqian; Caughron, Jared J.; Thiel, Chase E.; Mumford, Michael D.

2010-01-01

This study examined the role of key causal analysis strategies in forecasting and ethical decision-making. Undergraduate participants took on the role of the key actor in several ethical problems and were asked to identify and analyze the causes, forecast potential outcomes, and make a decision about each problem. Time pressure and analytic mindset were manipulated while participants worked through these problems. The results indicated that forecast quality was associated with decision ethicality, and the identification of the critical causes of the problem was associated with both higher quality forecasts and higher ethicality of decisions. Neither time pressure nor analytic mindset impacted forecasts or ethicality of decisions. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed. PMID:20352056

Prioritization of engineering support requests and advanced technology projects using decision support and industrial engineering models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tavana, Madjid

1995-01-01

The evaluation and prioritization of Engineering Support Requests (ESR's) is a particularly difficult task at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) -- Shuttle Project Engineering Office. This difficulty is due to the complexities inherent in the evaluation process and the lack of structured information. The evaluation process must consider a multitude of relevant pieces of information concerning Safety, Supportability, O&M Cost Savings, Process Enhancement, Reliability, and Implementation. Various analytical and normative models developed over the past have helped decision makers at KSC utilize large volumes of information in the evaluation of ESR's. The purpose of this project is to build on the existing methodologies and develop a multiple criteria decision support system that captures the decision maker's beliefs through a series of sequential, rational, and analytical processes. The model utilizes the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), subjective probabilities, the entropy concept, and Maximize Agreement Heuristic (MAH) to enhance the decision maker's intuition in evaluating a set of ESR's.

Architectural Strategies for Enabling Data-Driven Science at Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crichton, D. J.; Law, E. S.; Doyle, R. J.; Little, M. M.

2017-12-01

The analysis of large data collections from NASA or other agencies is often executed through traditional computational and data analysis approaches, which require users to bring data to their desktops and perform local data analysis. Alternatively, data are hauled to large computational environments that provide centralized data analysis via traditional High Performance Computing (HPC). Scientific data archives, however, are not only growing massive, but are also becoming highly distributed. Neither traditional approach provides a good solution for optimizing analysis into the future. Assumptions across the NASA mission and science data lifecycle, which historically assume that all data can be collected, transmitted, processed, and archived, will not scale as more capable instruments stress legacy-based systems. New paradigms are needed to increase the productivity and effectiveness of scientific data analysis. This paradigm must recognize that architectural and analytical choices are interrelated, and must be carefully coordinated in any system that aims to allow efficient, interactive scientific exploration and discovery to exploit massive data collections, from point of collection (e.g., onboard) to analysis and decision support. The most effective approach to analyzing a distributed set of massive data may involve some exploration and iteration, putting a premium on the flexibility afforded by the architectural framework. The framework should enable scientist users to assemble workflows efficiently, manage the uncertainties related to data analysis and inference, and optimize deep-dive analytics to enhance scalability. In many cases, this "data ecosystem" needs to be able to integrate multiple observing assets, ground environments, archives, and analytics, evolving from stewardship of measurements of data to using computational methodologies to better derive insight from the data that may be fused with other sets of data. This presentation will discuss architectural strategies, including a 2015-2016 NASA AIST Study on Big Data, for evolving scientific research towards massively distributed data-driven discovery. It will include example use cases across earth science, planetary science, and other disciplines.

The Interactive Minority Game: a Web-based investigation of human market interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laureti, Paolo; Ruch, Peter; Wakeling, Joseph; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

2004-01-01

The unprecedented access offered by the World Wide Web brings with it the potential to gather huge amounts of data on human activities. Here we exploit this by using a toy model of financial markets, the Minority Game (MG), to investigate human speculative trading behaviour and information capacity. Hundreds of individuals have played a total of tens of thousands of game turns against computer-controlled agents in the Web-based Interactive Minority Game. The analytical understanding of the MG permits fine-tuning of the market situations encountered, allowing for investigation of human behaviour in a variety of controlled environments. In particular, our results indicate a transition in players’ decision-making, as the markets become more difficult, between deductive behaviour making use of short-term trends in the market, and highly repetitive behaviour that ignores entirely the market history, yet outperforms random decision-making.

An optimization model for energy generation and distribution in a dynamic facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lansing, F. L.

1981-01-01

An analytical model is described using linear programming for the optimum generation and distribution of energy demands among competing energy resources and different economic criteria. The model, which will be used as a general engineering tool in the analysis of the Deep Space Network ground facility, considers several essential decisions for better design and operation. The decisions sought for the particular energy application include: the optimum time to build an assembly of elements, inclusion of a storage medium of some type, and the size or capacity of the elements that will minimize the total life-cycle cost over a given number of years. The model, which is structured in multiple time divisions, employ the decomposition principle for large-size matrices, the branch-and-bound method in mixed-integer programming, and the revised simplex technique for efficient and economic computer use.

An integrated approach of AHP and DEMATEL methods in evaluating the criteria of auto spare parts industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Hsin-Hung; Tsai, Ya-Ning

2012-11-01

This study uses both analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) methods to evaluate the criteria in auto spare parts industry in Taiwan. Traditionally, AHP does not consider indirect effects for each criterion and assumes that criteria are independent without further addressing the interdependence between or among the criteria. Thus, the importance computed by AHP can be viewed as short-term improvement opportunity. On the contrary, DEMATEL method not only evaluates the importance of criteria but also depicts the causal relations of criteria. By observing the causal diagrams, the improvement based on cause-oriented criteria might improve the performance effectively and efficiently for the long-term perspective. As a result, the major advantage of integrating AHP and DEMATEL methods is that the decision maker can continuously improve suppliers' performance from both short-term and long-term viewpoints.

Markovian queue optimisation analysis with an unreliable server subject to working breakdowns and impatient customers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liou, Cheng-Dar

2015-09-01

This study investigates an infinite capacity Markovian queue with a single unreliable service station, in which the customers may balk (do not enter) and renege (leave the queue after entering). The unreliable service station can be working breakdowns even if no customers are in the system. The matrix-analytic method is used to compute the steady-state probabilities for the number of customers, rate matrix and stability condition in the system. The single-objective model for cost and bi-objective model for cost and expected waiting time are derived in the system to fit in with practical applications. The particle swarm optimisation algorithm is implemented to find the optimal combinations of parameters in the pursuit of minimum cost. Two different approaches are used to identify the Pareto optimal set and compared: the epsilon-constraint method and non-dominate sorting genetic algorithm. Compared results allow using the traditional optimisation approach epsilon-constraint method, which is computationally faster and permits a direct sensitivity analysis of the solution under constraint or parameter perturbation. The Pareto front and non-dominated solutions set are obtained and illustrated. The decision makers can use these to improve their decision-making quality.

Multicriteria analysis of ontologically represented information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wasielewska, K.; Ganzha, M.; Paprzycki, M.; Bǎdicǎ, C.; Ivanovic, M.; Lirkov, I.

2014-11-01

Our current work concerns the development of a decision support system for the software selection problem. The main idea is to utilize expert knowledge to help the user in selecting the best software / method / computational resource to solve a computational problem. Obviously, this involves multicriterial decision making and the key open question is: which method to choose. The context of the work is provided by the Agents in Grid (AiG) project, where the software selection (and thus multicriterial analysis) is to be realized when all information concerning the problem, the hardware and the software is ontologically represented. Initially, we have considered the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is well suited for the hierarchical data structures (e.g., such that have been formulated in terms of ontologies). However, due to its well-known shortcomings, we have decided to extend our search for the multicriterial analysis method best suited for the problem in question. In this paper we report results of our search, which involved: (i) TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution), (ii) PROMETHEE, and (iii) GRIP (Generalized Regression with Intensities of Preference). We also briefly argue why other methods have not been considered as valuable candidates.

Integrating Water Quality and River Rehabilitation Management - A Decision-Analytical Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reichert, P.; Langhans, S.; Lienert, J.; Schuwirth, N.

2009-04-01

Integrative river management involves difficult decisions about alternative measures to improve their ecological state. For this reason, it seems useful to apply knowledge from the decision sciences to support river management. We discuss how decision-analytical elements can be employed for designing an integrated river management procedure. An important aspect of this procedure is to clearly separate scientific predictions of the consequences of alternatives from objectives to be achieved by river management. The key elements of the suggested procedure are (i) the quantitative elicitation of the objectives from different stakeholder groups, (ii) the compilation of the current scientific knowledge about the consequences of the effects resulting from suggested measures in the form of a probabilistic mathematical model, and (iii) the use of these predictions and valuations to prioritize alternatives, to uncover conflicting objectives, to support the design of better alternatives, and to improve the transparency of communication about the chosen management strategy. The development of this procedure led to insights regarding necessary steps to be taken for rational decision-making in river management, to guidelines about the use of decision-analytical techniques for performing these steps, but also to new insights about the application of decision-analytical techniques in general. In particular, the consideration of the spatial distribution of the effects of measures and the potential added value of connected rehabilitated river reaches leads to favoring measures that have a positive effect beyond a single river reach. As these effects only propagate within the river network, this results in a river basin oriented management concept as a consequence of a rational decision support procedure, rather than as an a priori management paradigm. There are also limitations to the support that can be expected from the decision-analytical perspective. It will not provide the societal values that are driving prioritization in river management, it will only support their elicitation and rational use. This is particularly important for the assessment of micro-pollutants because of severe limitations in scientific knowledge of their effects on river ecosystems. This makes the influence of pollution by micro-pollutants on prioritization of measures strongly dependent on the weight of the precautionary principle relative to other societal objectives of river management.

A conceptual model for generating and validating in-session clinical judgments

PubMed Central

Jacinto, Sofia B.; Lewis, Cara C.; Braga, João N.; Scott, Kelli

2016-01-01

Objective Little attention has been paid to the nuanced and complex decisions made in the clinical session context and how these decisions influence therapy effectiveness. Despite decades of research on the dual-processing systems, it remains unclear when and how intuitive and analytical reasoning influence the direction of the clinical session. Method This paper puts forth a testable conceptual model, guided by an interdisciplinary integration of the literature, that posits that the clinical session context moderates the use of intuitive versus analytical reasoning. Results A synthesis of studies examining professional best practices in clinical decision-making, empirical evidence from clinical judgment research, and the application of decision science theories indicate that intuitive and analytical reasoning may have profoundly different impacts on clinical practice and outcomes. Conclusions The proposed model is discussed with respect to its implications for clinical practice and future research. PMID:27088962

Agents That Negotiate Proficiently with People

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kraus, Sarit

Negotiation is a process by which interested parties confer with the aim of reaching agreements. The dissemination of technologies such as the Internet has created opportunities for computer agents to negotiate with people, despite being distributed geographically and in time. The inclusion of people presents novel problems for the design of autonomous agent negotiation strategies. People do not adhere to the optimal, monolithic strategies that can be derived analytically, as is the case in settings comprising computer agents alone. Their negotiation behavior is affected by a multitude of social and psychological factors, such as social attributes that influence negotiation deals (e.g., social welfare, inequity aversion) and traits of individual negotiators (e.g., altruism, trustworthiness, helpfulness). Furthermore, culture plays an important role in their decision making and people of varying cultures differ in the way they make offers and fulfill their commitments in negotiation.

Assessing electronic health record systems in emergency departments: Using a decision analytic Bayesian model.

PubMed

Ben-Assuli, Ofir; Leshno, Moshe

2016-09-01

In the last decade, health providers have implemented information systems to improve accuracy in medical diagnosis and decision-making. This article evaluates the impact of an electronic health record on emergency department physicians' diagnosis and admission decisions. A decision analytic approach using a decision tree was constructed to model the admission decision process to assess the added value of medical information retrieved from the electronic health record. Using a Bayesian statistical model, this method was evaluated on two coronary artery disease scenarios. The results show that the cases of coronary artery disease were better diagnosed when the electronic health record was consulted and led to more informed admission decisions. Furthermore, the value of medical information required for a specific admission decision in emergency departments could be quantified. The findings support the notion that physicians and patient healthcare can benefit from implementing electronic health record systems in emergency departments. © The Author(s) 2015.

The Rational Adolescent: Strategic Information Processing during Decision Making Revealed by Eye Tracking.

PubMed

Kwak, Youngbin; Payne, John W; Cohen, Andrew L; Huettel, Scott A

2015-01-01

Adolescence is often viewed as a time of irrational, risky decision-making - despite adolescents' competence in other cognitive domains. In this study, we examined the strategies used by adolescents (N=30) and young adults (N=47) to resolve complex, multi-outcome economic gambles. Compared to adults, adolescents were more likely to make conservative, loss-minimizing choices consistent with economic models. Eye-tracking data showed that prior to decisions, adolescents acquired more information in a more thorough manner; that is, they engaged in a more analytic processing strategy indicative of trade-offs between decision variables. In contrast, young adults' decisions were more consistent with heuristics that simplified the decision problem, at the expense of analytic precision. Collectively, these results demonstrate a counter-intuitive developmental transition in economic decision making: adolescents' decisions are more consistent with rational-choice models, while young adults more readily engage task-appropriate heuristics.

The Rational Adolescent: Strategic Information Processing during Decision Making Revealed by Eye Tracking

PubMed Central

Kwak, Youngbin; Payne, John W.; Cohen, Andrew L.; Huettel, Scott A.

2015-01-01

Adolescence is often viewed as a time of irrational, risky decision-making – despite adolescents' competence in other cognitive domains. In this study, we examined the strategies used by adolescents (N=30) and young adults (N=47) to resolve complex, multi-outcome economic gambles. Compared to adults, adolescents were more likely to make conservative, loss-minimizing choices consistent with economic models. Eye-tracking data showed that prior to decisions, adolescents acquired more information in a more thorough manner; that is, they engaged in a more analytic processing strategy indicative of trade-offs between decision variables. In contrast, young adults' decisions were more consistent with heuristics that simplified the decision problem, at the expense of analytic precision. Collectively, these results demonstrate a counter-intuitive developmental transition in economic decision making: adolescents' decisions are more consistent with rational-choice models, while young adults more readily engage task-appropriate heuristics. PMID:26388664

Fusion Analytics: A Data Integration System for Public Health and Medical Disaster Response Decision Support

PubMed Central

Passman, Dina B.

2013-01-01

Objective The objective of this demonstration is to show conference attendees how they can integrate, analyze, and visualize diverse data type data from across a variety of systems by leveraging an off-the-shelf enterprise business intelligence (EBI) solution to support decision-making in disasters. Introduction Fusion Analytics is the data integration system developed by the Fusion Cell at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR). Fusion Analytics meaningfully augments traditional public and population health surveillance reporting by providing web-based data analysis and visualization tools. Methods Fusion Analytics serves as a one-stop-shop for the web-based data visualizations of multiple real-time data sources within ASPR. The 24-7 web availability makes it an ideal analytic tool for situational awareness and response allowing stakeholders to access the portal from any internet-enabled device without installing any software. The Fusion Analytics data integration system was built using off-the-shelf EBI software. Fusion Analytics leverages the full power of statistical analysis software and delivers reports to users in a secure web-based environment. Fusion Analytics provides an example of how public health staff can develop and deploy a robust public health informatics solution using an off-the shelf product and with limited development funding. It also provides the unique example of a public health information system that combines patient data for traditional disease surveillance with manpower and resource data to provide overall decision support for federal public health and medical disaster response operations. Conclusions We are currently in a unique position within public health. One the one hand, we have been gaining greater and greater access to electronic data of all kinds over the last few years. On the other, we are working in a time of reduced government spending to support leveraging this data for decision support with robust analytics and visualizations. Fusion Analytics provides an opportunity for attendees to see how various types of data are integrated into a single application for population health decision support. It also can provide them with ideas of how they can use their own staff to create analyses and reports that support their public health activities.

SOMFlow: Guided Exploratory Cluster Analysis with Self-Organizing Maps and Analytic Provenance.

PubMed

Sacha, Dominik; Kraus, Matthias; Bernard, Jurgen; Behrisch, Michael; Schreck, Tobias; Asano, Yuki; Keim, Daniel A

2018-01-01

Clustering is a core building block for data analysis, aiming to extract otherwise hidden structures and relations from raw datasets, such as particular groups that can be effectively related, compared, and interpreted. A plethora of visual-interactive cluster analysis techniques has been proposed to date, however, arriving at useful clusterings often requires several rounds of user interactions to fine-tune the data preprocessing and algorithms. We present a multi-stage Visual Analytics (VA) approach for iterative cluster refinement together with an implementation (SOMFlow) that uses Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) to analyze time series data. It supports exploration by offering the analyst a visual platform to analyze intermediate results, adapt the underlying computations, iteratively partition the data, and to reflect previous analytical activities. The history of previous decisions is explicitly visualized within a flow graph, allowing to compare earlier cluster refinements and to explore relations. We further leverage quality and interestingness measures to guide the analyst in the discovery of useful patterns, relations, and data partitions. We conducted two pair analytics experiments together with a subject matter expert in speech intonation research to demonstrate that the approach is effective for interactive data analysis, supporting enhanced understanding of clustering results as well as the interactive process itself.

The use of analytical models in human-computer interface design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gugerty, Leo

1993-01-01

Recently, a large number of human-computer interface (HCI) researchers have investigated building analytical models of the user, which are often implemented as computer models. These models simulate the cognitive processes and task knowledge of the user in ways that allow a researcher or designer to estimate various aspects of an interface's usability, such as when user errors are likely to occur. This information can lead to design improvements. Analytical models can supplement design guidelines by providing designers rigorous ways of analyzing the information-processing requirements of specific tasks (i.e., task analysis). These models offer the potential of improving early designs and replacing some of the early phases of usability testing, thus reducing the cost of interface design. This paper describes some of the many analytical models that are currently being developed and evaluates the usefulness of analytical models for human-computer interface design. This paper will focus on computational, analytical models, such as the GOMS model, rather than less formal, verbal models, because the more exact predictions and task descriptions of computational models may be useful to designers. The paper also discusses some of the practical requirements for using analytical models in complex design organizations such as NASA.

Career Decision Statuses among Portuguese Secondary School Students: A Cluster Analytical Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Santos, Paulo Jorge; Ferreira, Joaquim Armando

2012-01-01

Career indecision is a complex phenomenon and an increasing number of authors have proposed that undecided individuals do not form a group with homogeneous characteristics. This study examines career decision statuses among a sample of 362 12th-grade Portuguese students. A cluster-analytical procedure, based on a battery of instruments designed to…

Completing the Link between Exposure Science and Toxicology for Improved Environmental Health Decision Making: The Aggregate Exposure Pathway Framework.

PubMed

Teeguarden, Justin G; Tan, Yu-Mei; Edwards, Stephen W; Leonard, Jeremy A; Anderson, Kim A; Corley, Richard A; Kile, Molly L; Simonich, Staci M; Stone, David; Tanguay, Robert L; Waters, Katrina M; Harper, Stacey L; Williams, David E

2016-05-03

Driven by major scientific advances in analytical methods, biomonitoring, computation, and a newly articulated vision for a greater impact in public health, the field of exposure science is undergoing a rapid transition from a field of observation to a field of prediction. Deployment of an organizational and predictive framework for exposure science analogous to the "systems approaches" used in the biological sciences is a necessary step in this evolution. Here we propose the aggregate exposure pathway (AEP) concept as the natural and complementary companion in the exposure sciences to the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) concept in the toxicological sciences. Aggregate exposure pathways offer an intuitive framework to organize exposure data within individual units of prediction common to the field, setting the stage for exposure forecasting. Looking farther ahead, we envision direct linkages between aggregate exposure pathways and adverse outcome pathways, completing the source to outcome continuum for more meaningful integration of exposure assessment and hazard identification. Together, the two frameworks form and inform a decision-making framework with the flexibility for risk-based, hazard-based, or exposure-based decision making.

An application of the AHP in water resources management: a case study on urban drainage rehabilitation in Medan City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarigan, A. P. M.; Rahmad, D.; Sembiring, R. A.; Iskandar, R.

2018-02-01

This paper illustrates an application of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) as a potential decision-making method in water resource management related to drainage rehabilitation. The prioritization problem of urban drainage rehabilitation in Medan City due to limited budget is used as a study case. A hierarchical structure is formed for the prioritization criteria and the alternative drainages to be rehabilitated. Based on the AHP, the prioritization criteria are ranked and a descending-order list of drainage is made in order to select the most favorable drainages to have rehabilitation. A sensitivity analysis is then conducted to check the consistency of the final decisions in case of minor changes in judgements. The results of AHP computed manually are compared with that using the software Expert Choice. It is observed that the top three ranked drainages are consistent, and both results of the AHP methods, calculated manually and performed using Expert Choice, are in agreement. It is hoped that the application of the AHP will help the decision-making process by the city government in the problem of urban drainage rehabilitation.

A spatial decision support system (SDSS) for sustainable tourism planning in Cameron Highlands, Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aminu, M.; Matori, A. N.; Yusof, K. W.

2014-02-01

The study describes a methodological approach based on an integrated use of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Analytic Network Process (ANP) of Multi Criteria Evaluation (MCE) to determine nature conservation and tourism development priorities among the highland areas. A set of criteria and indicators were defined to evaluate the highlands biodiversity conservation and tourism development. Pair wise comparison technique was used in order to support solution of a decision problem by evaluating possible alternatives from different perspectives. After the weights have been derived from the pairwise comparison technique, the next step was to compute the unweighted supermatrix, weighted supermatrix and the limit matrix. The limit matrix was normalized to obtain the priorities and the results transferred into GIS environment. Elements evaluated and ranked were represented by criterion maps. Map layers reflecting the opinion of different experts involved were summed using the weighted overlay approach of GIS. Subsequently sustainable tourism development scenarios were generated. The generation of scenarios highlighted the critical issues of the decision problem because it allows one to gradually narrow down a problem.

Present status of computational tools for maglev development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Z.; Chen, S.S.; Rote, D.M.

1991-10-01

High-speed vehicles that employ magnetic levitation (maglev) have received great attention worldwide as a means of relieving both highway and air-traffic congestion. At this time, Japan and Germany are leading the development of maglev. After fifteen years of inactivity that is attributed to technical policy decisions, the federal government of the United States has reconsidered the possibility of using maglev in the United States. The National Maglev Initiative (NMI) was established in May 1990 to assess the potential of maglev in the United States. One of the tasks of the NMI, which is also the objective of this report, ismore » to determine the status of existing computer software that can be applied to maglev-related problems. The computational problems involved in maglev assessment, research, and development can be classified into two categories: electromagnetic and mechanical. Because most maglev problems are complicated and difficult to solve analytically, proper numerical methods are needed to find solutions. To determine the status of maglev-related software, developers and users of computer codes were surveyed. The results of the survey are described in this report. 25 refs.« less

Decision Support | Solar Research | NREL

Science.gov Websites

informed solar decision making with credible, objective, accessible, and timely resources. Solar Energy Decision Support Decision Support NREL provides technical and analytical support to support provide unbiased information on solar policies and issues for state and local government decision makers

Whole mind and shared mind in clinical decision-making.

PubMed

Epstein, Ronald Mark

2013-02-01

To review the theory, research evidence and ethical implications regarding "whole mind" and "shared mind" in clinical practice in the context of chronic and serious illnesses. Selective critical review of the intersection of classical and naturalistic decision-making theories, cognitive neuroscience, communication research and ethics as they apply to decision-making and autonomy. Decision-making involves analytic thinking as well as affect and intuition ("whole mind") and sharing cognitive and affective schemas of two or more individuals ("shared mind"). Social relationships can help processing of complex information that otherwise would overwhelm individuals' cognitive capacities. Medical decision-making research, teaching and practice should consider both analytic and non-analytic cognitive processes. Further, research should consider that decisions emerge not only from the individual perspectives of patients, their families and clinicians, but also the perspectives that emerge from the interactions among them. Social interactions have the potential to enhance individual autonomy, as well as to promote relational autonomy based on shared frames of reference. Shared mind has the potential to result in wiser decisions, greater autonomy and self-determination; yet, clinicians and patients should be vigilant for the potential of hierarchical relationships to foster coercion or silencing of the patient's voice. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the Modeling and Management of Cloud Data Analytics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castillo, Claris; Tantawi, Asser; Steinder, Malgorzata; Pacifici, Giovanni

A new era is dawning where vast amount of data is subjected to intensive analysis in a cloud computing environment. Over the years, data about a myriad of things, ranging from user clicks to galaxies, have been accumulated, and continue to be collected, on storage media. The increasing availability of such data, along with the abundant supply of compute power and the urge to create useful knowledge, gave rise to a new data analytics paradigm in which data is subjected to intensive analysis, and additional data is created in the process. Meanwhile, a new cloud computing environment has emerged where seemingly limitless compute and storage resources are being provided to host computation and data for multiple users through virtualization technologies. Such a cloud environment is becoming the home for data analytics. Consequently, providing good performance at run-time to data analytics workload is an important issue for cloud management. In this paper, we provide an overview of the data analytics and cloud environment landscapes, and investigate the performance management issues related to running data analytics in the cloud. In particular, we focus on topics such as workload characterization, profiling analytics applications and their pattern of data usage, cloud resource allocation, placement of computation and data and their dynamic migration in the cloud, and performance prediction. In solving such management problems one relies on various run-time analytic models. We discuss approaches for modeling and optimizing the dynamic data analytics workload in the cloud environment. All along, we use the Map-Reduce paradigm as an illustration of data analytics.

Shared decision-making – transferring research into practice: the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

PubMed Central

Dolan, James G.

2008-01-01

Objective To illustrate how the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) can be used to promote shared decision-making and enhance clinician-patient communication. Methods Tutorial review. Results The AHP promotes shared decision making by creating a framework that is used to define the decision, summarize the information available, prioritize information needs, elicit preferences and values, and foster meaningful communication among decision stakeholders. Conclusions The AHP and related multi-criteria methods have the potential for improving the quality of clinical decisions and overcoming current barriers to implementing shared decision making in busy clinical settings. Further research is needed to determine the best way to implement these tools and to determine their effectiveness. Practice Implications Many clinical decisions involve preference-based trade-offs between competing risks and benefits. The AHP is a well-developed method that provides a practical approach for improving patient-provider communication, clinical decision-making, and the quality of patient care in these situations. PMID:18760559

The Impact of the Mode of Thought in Complex Decisions: Intuitive Decisions are Better

PubMed Central

Usher, Marius; Russo, Zohar; Weyers, Mark; Brauner, Ran; Zakay, Dan

2011-01-01

A number of recent studies have reported that decision quality is enhanced under conditions of inattention or distraction (unconscious thought; Dijksterhuis, 2004; Dijksterhuis and Nordgren, 2006; Dijksterhuis et al., 2006). These reports have generated considerable controversy, for both experimental (problems of replication) and theoretical reasons (interpretation). Here we report the results of four experiments. The first experiment replicates the unconscious thought effect, under conditions that validate and control the subjective criterion of decision quality. The second and third experiments examine the impact of a mode of thought manipulation (without distraction) on decision quality in immediate decisions. Here we find that intuitive or affective manipulations improve decision quality compared to analytic/deliberation manipulations. The fourth experiment combines the two methods (distraction and mode of thought manipulations) and demonstrates enhanced decision quality, in a situation that attempts to preserve ecological validity. The results are interpreted within a framework that is based on two interacting subsystems of decision-making: an affective/intuition based system and an analytic/deliberation system. PMID:21716605

Patient decision making among older individuals with cancer.

PubMed

Strohschein, Fay J; Bergman, Howard; Carnevale, Franco A; Loiselle, Carmen G

2011-07-01

Patient decision making is an area of increasing inquiry. For older individuals experiencing cancer, variations in health and functional status, physiologic aspects of aging, and tension between quality and quantity of life present unique challenges to treatment-related decision making. We used the pragmatic utility method to analyze the concept of patient decision making in the context of older individuals with cancer. We first evaluated its maturity in existing literature and then posed analytical questions to clarify aspects found to be only partially mature. In this context, we found patient decision making to be an ongoing process, changing with time, reflecting individual and relational components, as well as analytical and emotional ones. Assumptions frequently associated with patient decision making were not consistent with the empirical literature. Careful attention to the multifaceted components of patient decision making among older individuals with cancer provides guidance for research, supportive interventions, and targeted follow-up care.

The use of analytical models in human-computer interface design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gugerty, Leo

1991-01-01

Some of the many analytical models in human-computer interface design that are currently being developed are described. The usefulness of analytical models for human-computer interface design is evaluated. Can the use of analytical models be recommended to interface designers? The answer, based on the empirical research summarized here, is: not at this time. There are too many unanswered questions concerning the validity of models and their ability to meet the practical needs of design organizations.

Accounting for methodological, structural, and parameter uncertainty in decision-analytic models: a practical guide.

PubMed

Bilcke, Joke; Beutels, Philippe; Brisson, Marc; Jit, Mark

2011-01-01

Accounting for uncertainty is now a standard part of decision-analytic modeling and is recommended by many health technology agencies and published guidelines. However, the scope of such analyses is often limited, even though techniques have been developed for presenting the effects of methodological, structural, and parameter uncertainty on model results. To help bring these techniques into mainstream use, the authors present a step-by-step guide that offers an integrated approach to account for different kinds of uncertainty in the same model, along with a checklist for assessing the way in which uncertainty has been incorporated. The guide also addresses special situations such as when a source of uncertainty is difficult to parameterize, resources are limited for an ideal exploration of uncertainty, or evidence to inform the model is not available or not reliable. for identifying the sources of uncertainty that influence results most are also described. Besides guiding analysts, the guide and checklist may be useful to decision makers who need to assess how well uncertainty has been accounted for in a decision-analytic model before using the results to make a decision.

Green analytical chemistry introduction to chloropropanols determination at no economic and analytical performance costs?

PubMed

Jędrkiewicz, Renata; Orłowski, Aleksander; Namieśnik, Jacek; Tobiszewski, Marek

2016-01-15

In this study we perform ranking of analytical procedures for 3-monochloropropane-1,2-diol determination in soy sauces by PROMETHEE method. Multicriteria decision analysis was performed for three different scenarios - metrological, economic and environmental, by application of different weights to decision making criteria. All three scenarios indicate capillary electrophoresis-based procedure as the most preferable. Apart from that the details of ranking results differ for these three scenarios. The second run of rankings was done for scenarios that include metrological, economic and environmental criteria only, neglecting others. These results show that green analytical chemistry-based selection correlates with economic, while there is no correlation with metrological ones. This is an implication that green analytical chemistry can be brought into laboratories without analytical performance costs and it is even supported by economic reasons. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DE-CERTS: A Decision Support System for a Comparative Evaluation Method for Risk Management Methodologies and Tools

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-09-01

iv III. THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS ..... ........ 15 A. INTRODUCTION ...... ................. 15 B. THE AHP PROCESS ...... ................ 16 C...INTRODUCTION ...... ................. 26 B. IMPLEMENTATION OF CERTS USING AHP ........ .. 27 1. Consistency ...... ................ 29 2. User Interface...the proposed technique into a Decision Support System. Expert Choice implements the Analytic Hierarchy Process ( AHP ), an approach to multi- criteria

Development of An Analytic Approach to Determine How Environmental Protection Agency’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Is Used by Non-EPA Decision Makers (Final Contractor Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA announced the availability of the final contractor report entitled, Development of an Analytic Approach to Determine How Environmental Protection Agency’s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) Is Used By Non EPA Decision Makers. This contractor report analyzed how ...

Reporting to Improve Reproducibility and Facilitate Validity Assessment for Healthcare Database Studies V1.0.

PubMed

Wang, Shirley V; Schneeweiss, Sebastian; Berger, Marc L; Brown, Jeffrey; de Vries, Frank; Douglas, Ian; Gagne, Joshua J; Gini, Rosa; Klungel, Olaf; Mullins, C Daniel; Nguyen, Michael D; Rassen, Jeremy A; Smeeth, Liam; Sturkenboom, Miriam

2017-09-01

Defining a study population and creating an analytic dataset from longitudinal healthcare databases involves many decisions. Our objective was to catalogue scientific decisions underpinning study execution that should be reported to facilitate replication and enable assessment of validity of studies conducted in large healthcare databases. We reviewed key investigator decisions required to operate a sample of macros and software tools designed to create and analyze analytic cohorts from longitudinal streams of healthcare data. A panel of academic, regulatory, and industry experts in healthcare database analytics discussed and added to this list. Evidence generated from large healthcare encounter and reimbursement databases is increasingly being sought by decision-makers. Varied terminology is used around the world for the same concepts. Agreeing on terminology and which parameters from a large catalogue are the most essential to report for replicable research would improve transparency and facilitate assessment of validity. At a minimum, reporting for a database study should provide clarity regarding operational definitions for key temporal anchors and their relation to each other when creating the analytic dataset, accompanied by an attrition table and a design diagram. A substantial improvement in reproducibility, rigor and confidence in real world evidence generated from healthcare databases could be achieved with greater transparency about operational study parameters used to create analytic datasets from longitudinal healthcare databases. © 2017 The Authors. Pharmacoepidemiology & Drug Safety Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The MSCA Program: Developing Analytic Unicorns

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Houghton, David M.; Schertzer, Clint; Beck, Scott

2018-01-01

Marketing analytics students who can communicate effectively with decision makers are in high demand. These "analytic unicorns" are hard to find. The Master of Science in Customer Analytics (MSCA) degree program at Xavier University seeks to fill that need. In this paper, we discuss the process of creating the MSCA program. We outline…

Analytic computation of average energy of neutrons inducing fission

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clark, Alexander Rich

2016-08-12

The objective of this report is to describe how I analytically computed the average energy of neutrons that induce fission in the bare BeRP ball. The motivation of this report is to resolve a discrepancy between the average energy computed via the FMULT and F4/FM cards in MCNP6 by comparison to the analytic results.

Computational Complexity and Human Decision-Making.

PubMed

Bossaerts, Peter; Murawski, Carsten

2017-12-01

The rationality principle postulates that decision-makers always choose the best action available to them. It underlies most modern theories of decision-making. The principle does not take into account the difficulty of finding the best option. Here, we propose that computational complexity theory (CCT) provides a framework for defining and quantifying the difficulty of decisions. We review evidence showing that human decision-making is affected by computational complexity. Building on this evidence, we argue that most models of decision-making, and metacognition, are intractable from a computational perspective. To be plausible, future theories of decision-making will need to take into account both the resources required for implementing the computations implied by the theory, and the resource constraints imposed on the decision-maker by biology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Systematic Review of Model-Based Economic Evaluations of Treatments for Alzheimer's Disease.

PubMed

Hernandez, Luis; Ozen, Asli; DosSantos, Rodrigo; Getsios, Denis

2016-07-01

Numerous economic evaluations using decision-analytic models have assessed the cost effectiveness of treatments for Alzheimer's disease (AD) in the last two decades. It is important to understand the methods used in the existing models of AD and how they could impact results, as they could inform new model-based economic evaluations of treatments for AD. The aim of this systematic review was to provide a detailed description on the relevant aspects and components of existing decision-analytic models of AD, identifying areas for improvement and future development, and to conduct a quality assessment of the included studies. We performed a systematic and comprehensive review of cost-effectiveness studies of pharmacological treatments for AD published in the last decade (January 2005 to February 2015) that used decision-analytic models, also including studies considering patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). The background information of the included studies and specific information on the decision-analytic models, including their approach and components, assumptions, data sources, analyses, and results, were obtained from each study. A description of how the modeling approaches and assumptions differ across studies, identifying areas for improvement and future development, is provided. At the end, we present our own view of the potential future directions of decision-analytic models of AD and the challenges they might face. The included studies present a variety of different approaches, assumptions, and scope of decision-analytic models used in the economic evaluation of pharmacological treatments of AD. The major areas for improvement in future models of AD are to include domains of cognition, function, and behavior, rather than cognition alone; include a detailed description of how data used to model the natural course of disease progression were derived; state and justify the economic model selected and structural assumptions and limitations; provide a detailed (rather than high-level) description of the cost components included in the model; and report on the face-, internal-, and cross-validity of the model to strengthen the credibility and confidence in model results. The quality scores of most studies were rated as fair to good (average 87.5, range 69.5-100, in a scale of 0-100). Despite the advancements in decision-analytic models of AD, there remain several areas of improvement that are necessary to more appropriately and realistically capture the broad nature of AD and the potential benefits of treatments in future models of AD.

The Development of a Strategic Prioritisation Method for Green Supply Chain Initiatives.

PubMed

Masoumik, S Maryam; Abdul-Rashid, Salwa Hanim; Olugu, Ezutah Udoncy

2015-01-01

To maintain a competitive position, companies are increasingly required to integrate their proactive environmental strategies into their business strategies. The shift from reactive and compliance-based to proactive and strategic environmental management has driven companies to consider the strategic factors while identifying the areas in which they should focus their green initiatives. In previous studies little attention was given to providing the managers with a basis from which they could strategically prioritise these green initiatives across their companies' supply chains. Considering this lacuna in the literature, we present a decision-making method for prioritising green supply chain initiatives aligned with the preferred green strategies alternatives for the manufacturing companies. To develop this method, the study considered a position between determinism and the voluntarism orientation of environmental management involving both external pressures and internal competitive drivers and key resources as decision factors. This decision-making method was developed using the analytic network process (ANP) technique. The elements of the decision model were derived from the literature. The causal relationships among the multiple decision variables were validated based on the results of structural equation modelling (SEM) using a dataset collected from a survey of the ISO 14001-certified manufacturers in Malaysia. A portion of the relative weights required for computation in ANP was also calculated using the SEM results. A case study is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the method.

The Development of a Strategic Prioritisation Method for Green Supply Chain Initiatives

PubMed Central

Masoumik, S. Maryam; Abdul-Rashid, Salwa Hanim; Olugu, Ezutah Udoncy

2015-01-01

To maintain a competitive position, companies are increasingly required to integrate their proactive environmental strategies into their business strategies. The shift from reactive and compliance-based to proactive and strategic environmental management has driven companies to consider the strategic factors while identifying the areas in which they should focus their green initiatives. In previous studies little attention was given to providing the managers with a basis from which they could strategically prioritise these green initiatives across their companies’ supply chains. Considering this lacuna in the literature, we present a decision-making method for prioritising green supply chain initiatives aligned with the preferred green strategies alternatives for the manufacturing companies. To develop this method, the study considered a position between determinism and the voluntarism orientation of environmental management involving both external pressures and internal competitive drivers and key resources as decision factors. This decision-making method was developed using the analytic network process (ANP) technique. The elements of the decision model were derived from the literature. The causal relationships among the multiple decision variables were validated based on the results of structural equation modelling (SEM) using a dataset collected from a survey of the ISO 14001-certified manufacturers in Malaysia. A portion of the relative weights required for computation in ANP was also calculated using the SEM results. A case study is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the method. PMID:26618353

Visual analytics for semantic queries of TerraSAR-X image content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espinoza-Molina, Daniela; Alonso, Kevin; Datcu, Mihai

2015-10-01

With the continuous image product acquisition of satellite missions, the size of the image archives is considerably increasing every day as well as the variety and complexity of their content, surpassing the end-user capacity to analyse and exploit them. Advances in the image retrieval field have contributed to the development of tools for interactive exploration and extraction of the images from huge archives using different parameters like metadata, key-words, and basic image descriptors. Even though we count on more powerful tools for automated image retrieval and data analysis, we still face the problem of understanding and analyzing the results. Thus, a systematic computational analysis of these results is required in order to provide to the end-user a summary of the archive content in comprehensible terms. In this context, visual analytics combines automated analysis with interactive visualizations analysis techniques for an effective understanding, reasoning and decision making on the basis of very large and complex datasets. Moreover, currently several researches are focused on associating the content of the images with semantic definitions for describing the data in a format to be easily understood by the end-user. In this paper, we present our approach for computing visual analytics and semantically querying the TerraSAR-X archive. Our approach is mainly composed of four steps: 1) the generation of a data model that explains the information contained in a TerraSAR-X product. The model is formed by primitive descriptors and metadata entries, 2) the storage of this model in a database system, 3) the semantic definition of the image content based on machine learning algorithms and relevance feedback, and 4) querying the image archive using semantic descriptors as query parameters and computing the statistical analysis of the query results. The experimental results shows that with the help of visual analytics and semantic definitions we are able to explain the image content using semantic terms and the relations between them answering questions such as what is the percentage of urban area in a region? or what is the distribution of water bodies in a city?

Efficient decision-making by volume-conserving physical object

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Song-Ju; Aono, Masashi; Nameda, Etsushi

2015-08-01

Decision-making is one of the most important intellectual abilities of not only humans but also other biological organisms, helping their survival. This ability, however, may not be limited to biological systems and may be exhibited by physical systems. Here we demonstrate that any physical object, as long as its volume is conserved when coupled with suitable operations, provides a sophisticated decision-making capability. We consider the multi-armed bandit problem (MBP), the problem of finding, as accurately and quickly as possible, the most profitable option from a set of options that gives stochastic rewards. Efficient MBP solvers are useful for many practical applications, because MBP abstracts a variety of decision-making problems in real-world situations in which an efficient trial-and-error is required. These decisions are made as dictated by a physical object, which is moved in a manner similar to the fluctuations of a rigid body in a tug-of-war (TOW) game. This method, called ‘TOW dynamics’, exhibits higher efficiency than conventional reinforcement learning algorithms. We show analytical calculations that validate statistical reasons for TOW dynamics to produce the high performance despite its simplicity. These results imply that various physical systems in which some conservation law holds can be used to implement an efficient ‘decision-making object’. The proposed scheme will provide a new perspective to open up a physics-based analog computing paradigm and to understanding the biological information-processing principles that exploit their underlying physics.

Theoretical aspects and modelling of cellular decision making, cell killing and information-processing in photodynamic therapy of cancer.

PubMed

Gkigkitzis, Ioannis

2013-01-01

The aim of this report is to provide a mathematical model of the mechanism for making binary fate decisions about cell death or survival, during and after Photodynamic Therapy (PDT) treatment, and to supply the logical design for this decision mechanism as an application of rate distortion theory to the biochemical processing of information by the physical system of a cell. Based on system biology models of the molecular interactions involved in the PDT processes previously established, and regarding a cellular decision-making system as a noisy communication channel, we use rate distortion theory to design a time dependent Blahut-Arimoto algorithm where the input is a stimulus vector composed of the time dependent concentrations of three PDT related cell death signaling molecules and the output is a cell fate decision. The molecular concentrations are determined by a group of rate equations. The basic steps are: initialize the probability of the cell fate decision, compute the conditional probability distribution that minimizes the mutual information between input and output, compute the cell probability of cell fate decision that minimizes the mutual information and repeat the last two steps until the probabilities converge. Advance to the next discrete time point and repeat the process. Based on the model from communication theory described in this work, and assuming that the activation of the death signal processing occurs when any of the molecular stimulants increases higher than a predefined threshold (50% of the maximum concentrations), for 1800s of treatment, the cell undergoes necrosis within the first 30 minutes with probability range 90.0%-99.99% and in the case of repair/survival, it goes through apoptosis within 3-4 hours with probability range 90.00%-99.00%. Although, there is no experimental validation of the model at this moment, it reproduces some patterns of survival ratios of predicted experimental data. Analytical modeling based on cell death signaling molecules has been shown to be an independent and useful tool for prediction of cell surviving response to PDT. The model can be adjusted to provide important insights for cellular response to other treatments such as hyperthermia, and diseases such as neurodegeneration.

Evaluation and determination of soil remediation schemes using a modified AHP model and its application in a contaminated coking plant.

PubMed

Li, Xingang; Li, Jia; Sui, Hong; He, Lin; Cao, Xingtao; Li, Yonghong

2018-07-05

Soil remediation has been considered as one of the most difficult pollution treatment tasks due to its high complexity in contaminants, geological conditions, usage, urgency, etc. The diversity in remediation technologies further makes quick selection of suitable remediation schemes much tougher even the site investigation has been done. Herein, a sustainable decision support hierarchical model has been developed to select, evaluate and determine preferred soil remediation schemes comprehensively based on modified analytic hierarchy process (MAHP). This MAHP method combines competence model and the Grubbs criteria with the conventional AHP. It not only considers the competence differences among experts in group decision, but also adjusts the big deviation caused by different experts' preference through sample analysis. This conversion allows the final remediation decision more reasonable. In this model, different evaluation criteria, including economic effect, environmental effect and technological effect, are employed to evaluate the integrated performance of remediation schemes followed by a strict computation using above MAHP. To confirm the feasibility of this developed model, it has been tested by a benzene workshop contaminated site in Beijing coking plant. Beyond soil remediation, this MAHP model would also be applied in other fields referring to multi-criteria group decision making. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Preaching What We Practice: Teaching Ethical Decision-Making to Computer Security Professionals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleischmann, Kenneth R.

The biggest challenge facing computer security researchers and professionals is not learning how to make ethical decisions; rather it is learning how to recognize ethical decisions. All too often, technology development suffers from what Langdon Winner terms technological somnambulism - we sleepwalk through our technology design, following past precedents without a second thought, and fail to consider the perspectives of other stakeholders [1]. Computer security research and practice involves a number of opportunities for ethical decisions. For example, decisions about whether or not to automatically provide security updates involve tradeoffs related to caring versus user autonomy. Decisions about online voting include tradeoffs between convenience and security. Finally, decisions about routinely screening e-mails for spam involve tradeoffs of efficiency and privacy. It is critical that these and other decisions facing computer security researchers and professionals are confronted head on as value-laden design decisions, and that computer security researchers and professionals consider the perspectives of various stakeholders in making these decisions.

Escalation research: Providing new frontiers for applying behavior analysis to organizational behavior

PubMed Central

Goltz, Sonia M.

2000-01-01

Decision fiascoes such as escalation of commitment, the tendency of decision makers to “throw good money after bad,” can have serious consequences for organizations and are therefore of great interest in applied research. This paper discusses the use of behavior analysis in organizational behavior research on escalation. Among the most significant aspects of behavior-analytic research on escalation is that it has indicated that both the patterns of outcomes that decision makers have experienced for past decisions and the patterns of responses that they make are critical for understanding escalation. This research has also stimulated the refinement of methods by researchers to better assess decision making and the role reinforcement plays in it. Finally, behavior-analytic escalation research has not only indicated the utility of reinforcement principles for predicting more complex human behavior but has also suggested some additional areas for future exploration of decision making using behavior analysis. PMID:22478347

Choice-impulsivity in children and adolescents with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD): A meta-analytic review.

PubMed

Patros, Connor H G; Alderson, R Matt; Kasper, Lisa J; Tarle, Stephanie J; Lea, Sarah E; Hudec, Kristen L

2016-02-01

Impulsive behavior is a core DSM-5 diagnostic feature of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) that is associated with several pejorative outcomes. Impulsivity is multidimensional, consisting of two sub-constructs: rapid-response impulsivity and reward-delay impulsivity (i.e., choice-impulsivity). While previous research has extensively examined the presence and implications of rapid-response impulsivity in children with ADHD, reviews of choice-impulsive behavior have been both sparse and relatively circumscribed. This review used meta-analytic methods to comprehensively examine between-group differences in choice-impulsivity among children and adolescents with and without ADHD. Twenty-eight tasks (from 26 studies), consisting of 4320 total children (ADHD=2360, TD=1,960), provided sufficient information to compute an overall between-group effect size for choice-impulsivity performance. Results revealed a medium-magnitude between-group effect size (g=.47), suggesting that children and adolescents with ADHD exhibited moderately increased impulsive decision-making compared to TD children and adolescents. Further, relative to the TD group, children and adolescents with ADHD exhibited similar patterns of impulsive decision-making across delay discounting and delay of gratification tasks. However, the use of single-informant diagnostic procedures relative to multiple informants yielded larger between-group effects, and a similar pattern was observed across samples that excluded females relative to samples that included females. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Comprehensive Optimization Strategy for Real-time Spatial Feature Sharing and Visual Analytics in Cyberinfrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, W.; Shao, H.

2017-12-01

For geospatial cyberinfrastructure enabled web services, the ability of rapidly transmitting and sharing spatial data over the Internet plays a critical role to meet the demands of real-time change detection, response and decision-making. Especially for the vector datasets which serve as irreplaceable and concrete material in data-driven geospatial applications, their rich geometry and property information facilitates the development of interactive, efficient and intelligent data analysis and visualization applications. However, the big-data issues of vector datasets have hindered their wide adoption in web services. In this research, we propose a comprehensive optimization strategy to enhance the performance of vector data transmitting and processing. This strategy combines: 1) pre- and on-the-fly generalization, which automatically determines proper simplification level through the introduction of appropriate distance tolerance (ADT) to meet various visualization requirements, and at the same time speed up simplification efficiency; 2) a progressive attribute transmission method to reduce data size and therefore the service response time; 3) compressed data transmission and dynamic adoption of a compression method to maximize the service efficiency under different computing and network environments. A cyberinfrastructure web portal was developed for implementing the proposed technologies. After applying our optimization strategies, substantial performance enhancement is achieved. We expect this work to widen the use of web service providing vector data to support real-time spatial feature sharing, visual analytics and decision-making.

Health Care Transformation: A Strategy Rooted in Data and Analytics.

PubMed

Koster, John; Stewart, Elizabeth; Kolker, Eugene

2016-02-01

Today's consumers purchasing any product or service are armed with information and have high expectations. They expect service providers and payers to know about their unique needs. Data-driven decisions can help organizations meet those expectations and fulfill those needs.Health care, however, is not strictly a retail relationship-the sacred trust between patient and doctor, the clinician-patient relationship, must be preserved. The opportunities and challenges created by the digitization of health care are at the crux of the most crucial strategic decisions for academic medicine. A transformational vision grounded in data and analytics must guide health care decisions and actions.In this Commentary, the authors describe three examples of the transformational force of data and analytics to improve health care in order to focus attention on academic medicine's vital role in guiding the needed changes.

Attributes Affecting Computer-Aided Decision Making--A Literature Survey.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moldafsky, Neil I; Kwon, Ik-Whan

1994-01-01

Reviews current literature about personal, demographic, situational, and cognitive attributes that affect computer-aided decision making. The effectiveness of computer-aided decision making is explored in relation to decision quality, effectiveness, and confidence. Studies of the effects of age, anxiety, cognitive type, attitude, gender, and prior…

Problem Formulation in Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) for Environmental Risk Management

PubMed Central

Li, Yan; Thomas, Manoj; Osei-Bryson, Kweku-Muata; Levy, Jason

2016-01-01

With the growing popularity of data analytics and data science in the field of environmental risk management, a formalized Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) process that incorporates all applicable analytical techniques for a specific environmental risk management problem is essential. In this emerging field, there is limited research dealing with the use of decision support to elicit environmental risk management (ERM) objectives and identify analytical goals from ERM decision makers. In this paper, we address problem formulation in the ERM understanding phase of the KDDA process. We build a DM3 ontology to capture ERM objectives and to inference analytical goals and associated analytical techniques. A framework to assist decision making in the problem formulation process is developed. It is shown how the ontology-based knowledge system can provide structured guidance to retrieve relevant knowledge during problem formulation. The importance of not only operationalizing the KDDA approach in a real-world environment but also evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed procedure is emphasized. We demonstrate how ontology inferencing may be used to discover analytical goals and techniques by conceptualizing Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) exposure shifts based on a multilevel analysis of the level of urbanization (and related economic activity) and the degree of Socio-Economic Deprivation (SED) at the local neighborhood level. The HAPs case highlights not only the role of complexity in problem formulation but also the need for integrating data from multiple sources and the importance of employing appropriate KDDA modeling techniques. Challenges and opportunities for KDDA are summarized with an emphasis on environmental risk management and HAPs. PMID:27983713

Problem Formulation in Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) for Environmental Risk Management.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Thomas, Manoj; Osei-Bryson, Kweku-Muata; Levy, Jason

2016-12-15

With the growing popularity of data analytics and data science in the field of environmental risk management, a formalized Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) process that incorporates all applicable analytical techniques for a specific environmental risk management problem is essential. In this emerging field, there is limited research dealing with the use of decision support to elicit environmental risk management (ERM) objectives and identify analytical goals from ERM decision makers. In this paper, we address problem formulation in the ERM understanding phase of the KDDA process. We build a DM³ ontology to capture ERM objectives and to inference analytical goals and associated analytical techniques. A framework to assist decision making in the problem formulation process is developed. It is shown how the ontology-based knowledge system can provide structured guidance to retrieve relevant knowledge during problem formulation. The importance of not only operationalizing the KDDA approach in a real-world environment but also evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed procedure is emphasized. We demonstrate how ontology inferencing may be used to discover analytical goals and techniques by conceptualizing Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) exposure shifts based on a multilevel analysis of the level of urbanization (and related economic activity) and the degree of Socio-Economic Deprivation (SED) at the local neighborhood level. The HAPs case highlights not only the role of complexity in problem formulation but also the need for integrating data from multiple sources and the importance of employing appropriate KDDA modeling techniques. Challenges and opportunities for KDDA are summarized with an emphasis on environmental risk management and HAPs.

Group assessment of key indicators of sustainable waste management in developing countries.

PubMed

Tot, Bojana; Vujić, Goran; Srđević, Zorica; Ubavin, Dejan; Russo, Mário Augusto Tavares

2017-09-01

Decision makers in developing countries are struggling to solve the present problems of solid waste management. Prioritisation and ranking of the most important indicators that influence the waste management system is very useful for any decision maker for the future planning and implementation of a sustainable waste management system. The aim of this study is to evaluate key indicators and their related sub-indicators in a group decision-making environment. In order to gain insight into the subject it was necessary to obtain the qualified opinions of decision makers from different countries who understand the situation in the sector of waste management in developing countries. An assessment is performed by 43 decision makers from both developed and developing countries, and the applied methodology is based on a combined use of the analytic hierarchy process, from the multi-criteria decision-making set of tools, and the preferential voting method known as Borda Count, which belongs to social choice theory. Pairwise comparison of indicators is performed with the analytic hierarchy process, and the ranking of indicators once obtained is assessed with Borda Count. Detailed analysis of the final results showed that the Institutional-Administrative indicator was the most important one, with the maximum weight as derived by both groups of decision makers. The results also showed that the combined use of the analytic hierarchy process and Borda Count contributes to the credibility and objectivity of the decision-making process, allowing its use in more complex waste management group decision-making problems to be recommended.

EARL: Exoplanet Analytic Reflected Lightcurves package

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haggard, Hal M.; Cowan, Nicolas B.

2018-05-01

EARL (Exoplanet Analytic Reflected Lightcurves) computes the analytic form of a reflected lightcurve, given a spherical harmonic decomposition of the planet albedo map and the viewing and orbital geometries. The EARL Mathematica notebook allows rapid computation of reflected lightcurves, thus making lightcurve numerical experiments accessible.

Event-related potentials during individual, cooperative, and competitive task performance differ in subjects with analytic vs. holistic thinking.

PubMed

Apanovich, V V; Bezdenezhnykh, B N; Sams, M; Jääskeläinen, I P; Alexandrov, YuI

2018-01-01

It has been presented that Western cultures (USA, Western Europe) are mostly characterized by competitive forms of social interaction, whereas Eastern cultures (Japan, China, Russia) are mostly characterized by cooperative forms. It has also been stated that thinking in Eastern countries is predominantly holistic and in Western countries analytic. Based on this, we hypothesized that subjects with analytic vs. holistic thinking styles show differences in decision making in different types of social interaction conditions. We investigated behavioural and brain-activity differences between subjects with analytic and holistic thinking during a choice reaction time (ChRT) task, wherein the subjects either cooperated, competed (in pairs), or performed the task without interaction with other participants. Healthy Russian subjects (N=78) were divided into two groups based on having analytic or holistic thinking as determined with an established questionnaire. We measured reaction times as well as event-related brain potentials. There were significant differences between the interaction conditions in task performance between subjects with analytic and holistic thinking. Both behavioral performance and physiological measures exhibited higher variance in holistic than in analytic subjects. Differences in amplitude and P300 latency suggest that decision making was easier for the holistic subjects in the cooperation condition, in contrast to analytic subjects for whom decision making based on these measures seemed to be easier in the competition condition. The P300 amplitude was higher in the individual condition as compared with the collective conditions. Overall, our results support the notion that the brains of analytic and holistic subjects work differently in different types of social interaction conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

40 CFR Appendix G to Subpart A of... - UNEP Recommendations for Conditions Applied to Exemption for Essential Laboratory and Analytical...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... and laboratory purposes. Pursuant to Decision XI/15 of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol, effective... laboratory and analytical purposes is authorized provided that these laboratory and analytical chemicals..., restricted to laboratory use and analytical purposes and specifying that used or surplus substances should be...

40 CFR Appendix G to Subpart A of... - UNEP Recommendations for Conditions Applied to Exemption for Essential Laboratory and Analytical...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... and laboratory purposes. Pursuant to Decision XI/15 of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol, effective... laboratory and analytical purposes is authorized provided that these laboratory and analytical chemicals..., restricted to laboratory use and analytical purposes and specifying that used or surplus substances should be...

40 CFR Appendix G to Subpart A of... - UNEP Recommendations for Conditions Applied to Exemption for Essential Laboratory and Analytical...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... and laboratory purposes. Pursuant to Decision XI/15 of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol, effective... laboratory and analytical purposes is authorized provided that these laboratory and analytical chemicals..., restricted to laboratory use and analytical purposes and specifying that used or surplus substances should be...

40 CFR Appendix G to Subpart A of... - UNEP Recommendations for Conditions Applied to Exemption for Essential Laboratory and Analytical...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... and laboratory purposes. Pursuant to Decision XI/15 of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol, effective... laboratory and analytical purposes is authorized provided that these laboratory and analytical chemicals..., restricted to laboratory use and analytical purposes and specifying that used or surplus substances should be...

40 CFR Appendix G to Subpart A of... - UNEP Recommendations for Conditions Applied to Exemption for Essential Laboratory and Analytical...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... and laboratory purposes. Pursuant to Decision XI/15 of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol, effective... laboratory and analytical purposes is authorized provided that these laboratory and analytical chemicals..., restricted to laboratory use and analytical purposes and specifying that used or surplus substances should be...

Almost equivalence of combinatorial and distance processes for discrimination in multielement images.

PubMed

Ferraro, M; Foster, D H

1991-01-01

Under certain experimental conditions, visual discrimination performance in multielement images is closely related to visual identification performance: elements of the image are distinguished only insofar as they appear to have distinct, discrete, internal characterizations. This report is concerned with the detailed relationship between such internal characterizations and observable discrimination performance. Two types of general processes that might underline discrimination are considered. The first is based on computing all possible internal image characterizations that could allow a correct decision, each characterization weighted by the probability of its occurrence and of a correct decision being made. The second process is based on computing the difference between the probabilities associated with the internal characterizations of the individual image elements, the difference quantified naturally with an l(p) norm. The relationship between the two processes was investigated analytically and by Monte Carlo simulations over a plausible range of numbers n of the internal characterizations of each of the m elements in the image. The predictions of the two processes were found to be closely similar. The relationship was precisely one-to-one, however, only for n = 2, m = 3, 4, 6, and for n greater than 2, m = 3, 4, p = 2. For all other cases tested, a one-to-one relationship was shown to be impossible.

Precision Agriculture Design Method Using a Distributed Computing Architecture on Internet of Things Context.

PubMed

Ferrández-Pastor, Francisco Javier; García-Chamizo, Juan Manuel; Nieto-Hidalgo, Mario; Mora-Martínez, José

2018-05-28

The Internet of Things (IoT) has opened productive ways to cultivate soil with the use of low-cost hardware (sensors/actuators) and communication (Internet) technologies. Remote equipment and crop monitoring, predictive analytic, weather forecasting for crops or smart logistics and warehousing are some examples of these new opportunities. Nevertheless, farmers are agriculture experts but, usually, do not have experience in IoT applications. Users who use IoT applications must participate in its design, improving the integration and use. In this work, different industrial agricultural facilities are analysed with farmers and growers to design new functionalities based on IoT paradigms deployment. User-centred design model is used to obtain knowledge and experience in the process of introducing technology in agricultural applications. Internet of things paradigms are used as resources to facilitate the decision making. IoT architecture, operating rules and smart processes are implemented using a distributed model based on edge and fog computing paradigms. A communication architecture is proposed using these technologies. The aim is to help farmers to develop smart systems both, in current and new facilities. Different decision trees to automate the installation, designed by the farmer, can be easily deployed using the method proposed in this document.

Decision Support Model for Introduction of Gamification Solution Using AHP

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Gamification means the use of various elements of game design in nongame contexts including workplace collaboration, marketing, education, military, and medical services. Gamification is effective for both improving workplace productivity and motivating employees. However, introduction of gamification is not easy because the planning and implementation processes of gamification are very complicated and it needs interdisciplinary knowledge such as information systems, organization behavior, and human psychology. Providing a systematic decision making method for gamification process is the purpose of this paper. This paper suggests the decision criteria for selection of gamification platform to support a systematic decision making process for managements. The criteria are derived from previous works on gamification, introduction of information systems, and analytic hierarchy process. The weights of decision criteria are calculated through a survey by the professionals on game, information systems, and business administration. The analytic hierarchy process is used to derive the weights. The decision criteria and weights provided in this paper could support the managements to make a systematic decision for selection of gamification platform. PMID:24892075

Decision support model for introduction of gamification solution using AHP.

PubMed

Kim, Sangkyun

2014-01-01

Gamification means the use of various elements of game design in nongame contexts including workplace collaboration, marketing, education, military, and medical services. Gamification is effective for both improving workplace productivity and motivating employees. However, introduction of gamification is not easy because the planning and implementation processes of gamification are very complicated and it needs interdisciplinary knowledge such as information systems, organization behavior, and human psychology. Providing a systematic decision making method for gamification process is the purpose of this paper. This paper suggests the decision criteria for selection of gamification platform to support a systematic decision making process for managements. The criteria are derived from previous works on gamification, introduction of information systems, and analytic hierarchy process. The weights of decision criteria are calculated through a survey by the professionals on game, information systems, and business administration. The analytic hierarchy process is used to derive the weights. The decision criteria and weights provided in this paper could support the managements to make a systematic decision for selection of gamification platform.

Real-Time and Retrospective Health-Analytics-as-a-Service: A Novel Framework.

PubMed

Khazaei, Hamzeh; McGregor, Carolyn; Eklund, J Mikael; El-Khatib, Khalil

2015-11-18

Analytics-as-a-service (AaaS) is one of the latest provisions emerging from the cloud services family. Utilizing this paradigm of computing in health informatics will benefit patients, care providers, and governments significantly. This work is a novel approach to realize health analytics as services in critical care units in particular. To design, implement, evaluate, and deploy an extendable big-data compatible framework for health-analytics-as-a-service that offers both real-time and retrospective analysis. We present a novel framework that can realize health data analytics-as-a-service. The framework is flexible and configurable for different scenarios by utilizing the latest technologies and best practices for data acquisition, transformation, storage, analytics, knowledge extraction, and visualization. We have instantiated the proposed method, through the Artemis project, that is, a customization of the framework for live monitoring and retrospective research on premature babies and ill term infants in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs). We demonstrated the proposed framework in this paper for monitoring NICUs and refer to it as the Artemis-In-Cloud (Artemis-IC) project. A pilot of Artemis has been deployed in the SickKids hospital NICU. By infusing the output of this pilot set up to an analytical model, we predict important performance measures for the final deployment of Artemis-IC. This process can be carried out for other hospitals following the same steps with minimal effort. SickKids' NICU has 36 beds and can classify the patients generally into 5 different types including surgical and premature babies. The arrival rate is estimated as 4.5 patients per day, and the average length of stay was calculated as 16 days. Mean number of medical monitoring algorithms per patient is 9, which renders 311 live algorithms for the whole NICU running on the framework. The memory and computation power required for Artemis-IC to handle the SickKids NICU will be 32 GB and 16 CPU cores, respectively. The required amount of storage was estimated as 8.6 TB per year. There will always be 34.9 patients in SickKids NICU on average. Currently, 46% of patients cannot get admitted to SickKids NICU due to lack of resources. By increasing the capacity to 90 beds, all patients can be accommodated. For such a provisioning, Artemis-IC will need 16 TB of storage per year, 55 GB of memory, and 28 CPU cores. Our contributions in this work relate to a cloud architecture for the analysis of physiological data for clinical decisions support for tertiary care use. We demonstrate how to size the equipment needed in the cloud for that architecture based on a very realistic assessment of the patient characteristics and the associated clinical decision support algorithms that would be required to run for those patients. We show the principle of how this could be performed and furthermore that it can be replicated for any critical care setting within a tertiary institution.

Real-Time and Retrospective Health-Analytics-as-a-Service: A Novel Framework

PubMed Central

McGregor, Carolyn; Eklund, J Mikael; El-Khatib, Khalil

2015-01-01

Background Analytics-as-a-service (AaaS) is one of the latest provisions emerging from the cloud services family. Utilizing this paradigm of computing in health informatics will benefit patients, care providers, and governments significantly. This work is a novel approach to realize health analytics as services in critical care units in particular. Objective To design, implement, evaluate, and deploy an extendable big-data compatible framework for health-analytics-as-a-service that offers both real-time and retrospective analysis. Methods We present a novel framework that can realize health data analytics-as-a-service. The framework is flexible and configurable for different scenarios by utilizing the latest technologies and best practices for data acquisition, transformation, storage, analytics, knowledge extraction, and visualization. We have instantiated the proposed method, through the Artemis project, that is, a customization of the framework for live monitoring and retrospective research on premature babies and ill term infants in neonatal intensive care units (NICUs). Results We demonstrated the proposed framework in this paper for monitoring NICUs and refer to it as the Artemis-In-Cloud (Artemis-IC) project. A pilot of Artemis has been deployed in the SickKids hospital NICU. By infusing the output of this pilot set up to an analytical model, we predict important performance measures for the final deployment of Artemis-IC. This process can be carried out for other hospitals following the same steps with minimal effort. SickKids’ NICU has 36 beds and can classify the patients generally into 5 different types including surgical and premature babies. The arrival rate is estimated as 4.5 patients per day, and the average length of stay was calculated as 16 days. Mean number of medical monitoring algorithms per patient is 9, which renders 311 live algorithms for the whole NICU running on the framework. The memory and computation power required for Artemis-IC to handle the SickKids NICU will be 32 GB and 16 CPU cores, respectively. The required amount of storage was estimated as 8.6 TB per year. There will always be 34.9 patients in SickKids NICU on average. Currently, 46% of patients cannot get admitted to SickKids NICU due to lack of resources. By increasing the capacity to 90 beds, all patients can be accommodated. For such a provisioning, Artemis-IC will need 16 TB of storage per year, 55 GB of memory, and 28 CPU cores. Conclusions Our contributions in this work relate to a cloud architecture for the analysis of physiological data for clinical decisions support for tertiary care use. We demonstrate how to size the equipment needed in the cloud for that architecture based on a very realistic assessment of the patient characteristics and the associated clinical decision support algorithms that would be required to run for those patients. We show the principle of how this could be performed and furthermore that it can be replicated for any critical care setting within a tertiary institution. PMID:26582268

The role of analytical science in natural resource decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Alan

1993-09-01

There is a continuing debate about the proper role of analytical (positivist) science in natural resource decision making. Two diametrically opposed views are evident, arguing for and against a more extended role for scientific information. The debate takes on a different complexion if one recognizes that certain kinds of problem, referred to here as “wicked” or “trans-science” problems, may not be amenable to the analytical process. Indeed, the mistaken application of analytical methods to trans-science problems may not only be a waste of time and money but also serve to hinder policy development. Since many environmental issues are trans-science in nature, then it follows that alternatives to analytical science need to be developed. In this article, the issues involved in the debate are clarified by examining the impact of the use of analytical methods in a particular case, the spruce budworm controversy in New Brunswick. The article ends with some suggestions about a “holistic” approach to the problem.

Visual analytics in medical education: impacting analytical reasoning and decision making for quality improvement.

PubMed

Vaitsis, Christos; Nilsson, Gunnar; Zary, Nabil

2015-01-01

The medical curriculum is the main tool representing the entire undergraduate medical education. Due to its complexity and multilayered structure it is of limited use to teachers in medical education for quality improvement purposes. In this study we evaluated three visualizations of curriculum data from a pilot course, using teachers from an undergraduate medical program and applying visual analytics methods. We found that visual analytics can be used to positively impacting analytical reasoning and decision making in medical education through the realization of variables capable to enhance human perception and cognition on complex curriculum data. The positive results derived from our evaluation of a medical curriculum and in a small scale, signify the need to expand this method to an entire medical curriculum. As our approach sustains low levels of complexity it opens a new promising direction in medical education informatics research.

Cost effectiveness of ovarian reserve testing in in vitro fertilization: a Markov decision-analytic model.

PubMed

Moolenaar, Lobke M; Broekmans, Frank J M; van Disseldorp, Jeroen; Fauser, Bart C J M; Eijkemans, Marinus J C; Hompes, Peter G A; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben Willem J

2011-10-01

To compare the cost effectiveness of ovarian reserve testing in in vitro fertilization (IVF). A Markov decision model based on data from the literature and original patient data. Decision analytic framework. Computer-simulated cohort of subfertile women aged 20 to 45 years who are eligible for IVF. [1] No treatment, [2] up to three cycles of IVF limited to women under 41 years and no ovarian reserve testing, [3] up to three cycles of IVF with dose individualization of gonadotropins according to ovarian reserve, and [4] up to three cycles of IVF with ovarian reserve testing and exclusion of expected poor responders after the first cycle, with no treatment scenario as the reference scenario. Cumulative live birth over 1 year, total costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. The cumulative live birth was 9.0% in the no treatment scenario, 54.8% for scenario 2, 70.6% for scenario 3 and 51.9% for scenario 4. Absolute costs per woman for these scenarios were €0, €6,917, €6,678, and €5,892 for scenarios 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) for scenarios 2, 3, and 4 were €15,166, €10,837, and €13,743 per additional live birth. Sensitivity analysis showed the model to be robust over a wide range of values. Individualization of the follicle-stimulating hormone dose according to ovarian reserve is likely to be cost effective in women who are eligible for IVF, but this effectiveness needs to be confirmed in randomized clinical trials. Copyright © 2011 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Restoring and Managing Gulf of Mexico Fisheries: A Path Toward Creative Decision-Making

EPA Science Inventory

This chapter introduces decision analysis concepts with examples for managing fisheries. Decision analytic methods provide useful tools for structuring environmental management problems and separating technical judgments from preference judgments to better weigh the prospects fro...

Underground Mining Method Selection Using WPM and PROMETHEE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balusa, Bhanu Chander; Singam, Jayanthu

2018-04-01

The aim of this paper is to represent the solution to the problem of selecting suitable underground mining method for the mining industry. It is achieved by using two multi-attribute decision making techniques. These two techniques are weighted product method (WPM) and preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE). In this paper, analytic hierarchy process is used for weight's calculation of the attributes (i.e. parameters which are used in this paper). Mining method selection depends on physical parameters, mechanical parameters, economical parameters and technical parameters. WPM and PROMETHEE techniques have the ability to consider the relationship between the parameters and mining methods. The proposed techniques give higher accuracy and faster computation capability when compared with other decision making techniques. The proposed techniques are presented to determine the effective mining method for bauxite mine. The results of these techniques are compared with methods used in the earlier research works. The results show, conventional cut and fill method is the most suitable mining method.

Practical Applications of Digital Pathology.

PubMed

Saeed-Vafa, Daryoush; Magliocco, Anthony M

2015-04-01

Virtual microscopy and advances in machine learning have paved the way for the ever-expanding field of digital pathology. Multiple image-based computing environments capable of performing automated quantitative and morphological analyses are the foundation on which digital pathology is built. The applications for digital pathology in the clinical setting are numerous and are explored along with the digital software environments themselves, as well as the different analytical modalities specific to digital pathology. Prospective studies, case-control analyses, meta-analyses, and detailed descriptions of software environments were explored that pertained to digital pathology and its use in the clinical setting. Many different software environments have advanced platforms capable of improving digital pathology and potentially influencing clinical decisions. The potential of digital pathology is vast, particularly with the introduction of numerous software environments available for use. With all the digital pathology tools available as well as those in development, the field will continue to advance, particularly in the era of personalized medicine, providing health care professionals with more precise prognostic information as well as helping them guide treatment decisions.

Modeling and Visualizing Flow of Chemical Agents Across Complex Terrain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kao, David; Kramer, Marc; Chaderjian, Neal

2005-01-01

Release of chemical agents across complex terrain presents a real threat to homeland security. Modeling and visualization tools are being developed that capture flow fluid terrain interaction as well as point dispersal downstream flow paths. These analytic tools when coupled with UAV atmospheric observations provide predictive capabilities to allow for rapid emergency response as well as developing a comprehensive preemptive counter-threat evacuation plan. The visualization tools involve high-end computing and massive parallel processing combined with texture mapping. We demonstrate our approach across a mountainous portion of North California under two contrasting meteorological conditions. Animations depicting flow over this geographical location provide immediate assistance in decision support and crisis management.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steed, Chad A

Interactive data visualization leverages human visual perception and cognition to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of data analysis. When combined with automated data analytics, data visualization systems orchestrate the strengths of humans with the computational power of machines to solve problems neither approach can manage in isolation. In the intelligent transportation system domain, such systems are necessary to support decision making in large and complex data streams. In this chapter, we provide an introduction to several key topics related to the design of data visualization systems. In addition to an overview of key techniques and strategies, we will describe practicalmore » design principles. The chapter is concluded with a detailed case study involving the design of a multivariate visualization tool.« less

Economics of Employer-Sponsored Workplace Vaccination to Prevent Pandemic and Seasonal Influenza

PubMed Central

Lee, Bruce Y.; Bailey, Rachel R.; Wiringa, Ann E.; Afriyie, Abena; Wateska, Angela R.; Smith, Kenneth J.; Zimmerman, Richard K.

2010-01-01

Employers may be loath to fund vaccination programs without understanding the economic consequences. We developed a decision analytic computational simulation model including dynamic transmission elements that determined the cost-benefit of employer-sponsored workplace vaccination from the employer's perspective. Implementing such programs was relatively inexpensive (<$35/vaccinated employee) and, in many cases, cost saving across diverse occupational groups in all seasonal influenza scenarios. Such programs were cost-saving for a 20% serologic attack rate pandemic scenario (−$15 to −$995) per vaccinated employee) and a 30% serologic attack rate pandemic scenario (range −$39 to −$1,494 per vaccinated employee) across all age and major occupational groups. PMID:20620168

Fuzzy logic in control systems: Fuzzy logic controller. I, II

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Chuen Chien

1990-01-01

Recent advances in the theory and applications of fuzzy-logic controllers (FLCs) are examined in an analytical review. The fundamental principles of fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic are recalled; the basic FLC components (fuzzification and defuzzification interfaces, knowledge base, and decision-making logic) are described; and the advantages of FLCs for incorporating expert knowledge into a control system are indicated. Particular attention is given to fuzzy implication functions, the interpretation of sentence connectives (and, also), compositional operators, and inference mechanisms. Applications discussed include the FLC-guided automobile developed by Sugeno and Nishida (1985), FLC hardware systems, FLCs for subway trains and ship-loading cranes, fuzzy-logic chips, and fuzzy computers.

What if Learning Analytics Were Based on Learning Science?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marzouk, Zahia; Rakovic, Mladen; Liaqat, Amna; Vytasek, Jovita; Samadi, Donya; Stewart-Alonso, Jason; Ram, Ilana; Woloshen, Sonya; Winne, Philip H.; Nesbit, John C.

2016-01-01

Learning analytics are often formatted as visualisations developed from traced data collected as students study in online learning environments. Optimal analytics inform and motivate students' decisions about adaptations that improve their learning. We observe that designs for learning often neglect theories and empirical findings in learning…

Incorporating Learning Analytics in the Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thille, Candace; Zimmaro, Dawn

2017-01-01

This chapter describes an open learning analytics system focused on learning process measures and designed to engage instructors and students in an evidence-informed decision-making process to improve learning.

Completing the Link between Exposure Science and Toxicology for Improved Environmental Health Decision Making: The Aggregate Exposure Pathway Framework

PubMed Central

Teeguarden, Justin. G.; Tan, Yu-Mei; Edwards, Stephen W.; Leonard, Jeremy A.; Anderson, Kim A.; Corley, Richard A.; Harding, Anna K; Kile, Molly L.; Simonich, Staci M; Stone, David; Tanguay, Robert L.; Waters, Katrina M.; Harper, Stacey L.; Williams, David E.

2016-01-01

Synopsis Driven by major scientific advances in analytical methods, biomonitoring, computational tools, and a newly articulated vision for a greater impact in public health, the field of exposure science is undergoing a rapid transition from a field of observation to a field of prediction. Deployment of an organizational and predictive framework for exposure science analogous to the “systems approaches” used in the biological sciences is a necessary step in this evolution. Here we propose the Aggregate Exposure Pathway (AEP) concept as the natural and complementary companion in the exposure sciences to the Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) concept in the toxicological sciences. Aggregate exposure pathways offer an intuitive framework to organize exposure data within individual units of prediction common to the field, setting the stage for exposure forecasting. Looking farther ahead, we envision direct linkages between aggregate exposure pathways and adverse outcome pathways, completing the source to outcome continuum for more efficient integration of exposure assessment and hazard identification. Together, the two pathways form and inform a decision-making framework with the flexibility for risk-based, hazard-based, or exposure-based decision making. PMID:26759916

Completing the link between exposure science and toxicology for improved environmental health decision making: The aggregate exposure pathway framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Teeguarden, Justin G.; Tan, Yu -Mei; Edwards, Stephen W.

Here, driven by major scientific advances in analytical methods, biomonitoring, computation, and a newly articulated vision for a greater impact in public health, the field of exposure science is undergoing a rapid transition from a field of observation to a field of prediction. Deployment of an organizational and predictive framework for exposure science analogous to the “systems approaches” used in the biological sciences is a necessary step in this evolution. Here we propose the aggregate exposure pathway (AEP) concept as the natural and complementary companion in the exposure sciences to the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) concept in the toxicological sciences.more » Aggregate exposure pathways offer an intuitive framework to organize exposure data within individual units of prediction common to the field, setting the stage for exposure forecasting. Looking farther ahead, we envision direct linkages between aggregate exposure pathways and adverse outcome pathways, completing the source to outcome continuum for more meaningful integration of exposure assessment and hazard identification. Together, the two frameworks form and inform a decision-making framework with the flexibility for risk-based, hazard-based, or exposure-based decision making.« less

Completing the link between exposure science and toxicology for improved environmental health decision making: The aggregate exposure pathway framework

DOE PAGES

Teeguarden, Justin G.; Tan, Yu -Mei; Edwards, Stephen W.; ...

2016-01-13

Here, driven by major scientific advances in analytical methods, biomonitoring, computation, and a newly articulated vision for a greater impact in public health, the field of exposure science is undergoing a rapid transition from a field of observation to a field of prediction. Deployment of an organizational and predictive framework for exposure science analogous to the “systems approaches” used in the biological sciences is a necessary step in this evolution. Here we propose the aggregate exposure pathway (AEP) concept as the natural and complementary companion in the exposure sciences to the adverse outcome pathway (AOP) concept in the toxicological sciences.more » Aggregate exposure pathways offer an intuitive framework to organize exposure data within individual units of prediction common to the field, setting the stage for exposure forecasting. Looking farther ahead, we envision direct linkages between aggregate exposure pathways and adverse outcome pathways, completing the source to outcome continuum for more meaningful integration of exposure assessment and hazard identification. Together, the two frameworks form and inform a decision-making framework with the flexibility for risk-based, hazard-based, or exposure-based decision making.« less

Economics of influenza vaccine administration timing for children.

PubMed

Lee, Bruce Y; Tai, Julie H Y; Bailey, Rachel R; Smith, Kenneth J; Nowalk, Andrew J

2010-03-01

To determine how much should be invested each year to encourage and operationalize the administration of influenza vaccine to children before November and how late the vaccine should be offered each year. Monte Carlo decision analytic computer simulation models. The children's influenza vaccination timing model quantified the incremental economic value of vaccinating a child earlier in the influenza season and the incremental cost of delaying vaccination. The children's monthly influenza vaccination decision model evaluated the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating versus not vaccinating for every month of the influenza season. Getting children vaccinated by the end of October rather than when they are currently getting vaccinated could save society between $6.4 million and $9.2 million plus 653 and 926 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and third-party payers between $4.1 million and $6.1 million plus 647 to 942 QALYs each year. Decision makers may want to continue offering influenza vaccination to children at least through the end of December. Vaccinating with trivalent inactivated virus vaccine was more cost-effective than vaccinating with live attenuated influenza vaccine for every month. Policymakers could invest up to $6 million to $9 million a year to get children vaccinated in September or October without expending any net costs.

The SIMRAND methodology: Theory and application for the simulation of research and development projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miles, R. F., Jr.

1986-01-01

A research and development (R&D) project often involves a number of decisions that must be made concerning which subset of systems or tasks are to be undertaken to achieve the goal of the R&D project. To help in this decision making, SIMRAND (SIMulation of Research ANd Development Projects) is a methodology for the selection of the optimal subset of systems or tasks to be undertaken on an R&D project. Using alternative networks, the SIMRAND methodology models the alternative subsets of systems or tasks under consideration. Each path through an alternative network represents one way of satisfying the project goals. Equations are developed that relate the system or task variables to the measure of reference. Uncertainty is incorporated by treating the variables of the equations probabilistically as random variables, with cumulative distribution functions assessed by technical experts. Analytical techniques of probability theory are used to reduce the complexity of the alternative networks. Cardinal utility functions over the measure of preference are assessed for the decision makers. A run of the SIMRAND Computer I Program combines, in a Monte Carlo simulation model, the network structure, the equations, the cumulative distribution functions, and the utility functions.

Analytical group decision making in natural resources: methodology and application

Treesearch

Daniel L. Schmoldt; David L. Peterson

2000-01-01

Group decision making is becoming increasingly important in natural resource management and associated scientific applications, because multiple values are treated coincidentally in time and space, multiple resource specialists are needed, and multiple stakeholders must be included in the decision process. Decades of social science research on decision making in groups...

Big Data Analytics in Chemical Engineering.

PubMed

Chiang, Leo; Lu, Bo; Castillo, Ivan

2017-06-07

Big data analytics is the journey to turn data into insights for more informed business and operational decisions. As the chemical engineering community is collecting more data (volume) from different sources (variety), this journey becomes more challenging in terms of using the right data and the right tools (analytics) to make the right decisions in real time (velocity). This article highlights recent big data advancements in five industries, including chemicals, energy, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and food, and then discusses technical, platform, and culture challenges. To reach the next milestone in multiplying successes to the enterprise level, government, academia, and industry need to collaboratively focus on workforce development and innovation.

FDT 2.0: Improving scalability of the fuzzy decision tree induction tool - integrating database storage.

PubMed

Durham, Erin-Elizabeth A; Yu, Xiaxia; Harrison, Robert W

2014-12-01

Effective machine-learning handles large datasets efficiently. One key feature of handling large data is the use of databases such as MySQL. The freeware fuzzy decision tree induction tool, FDT, is a scalable supervised-classification software tool implementing fuzzy decision trees. It is based on an optimized fuzzy ID3 (FID3) algorithm. FDT 2.0 improves upon FDT 1.0 by bridging the gap between data science and data engineering: it combines a robust decisioning tool with data retention for future decisions, so that the tool does not need to be recalibrated from scratch every time a new decision is required. In this paper we briefly review the analytical capabilities of the freeware FDT tool and its major features and functionalities; examples of large biological datasets from HIV, microRNAs and sRNAs are included. This work shows how to integrate fuzzy decision algorithms with modern database technology. In addition, we show that integrating the fuzzy decision tree induction tool with database storage allows for optimal user satisfaction in today's Data Analytics world.

Accelerated bridge construction (ABC) decision making and economic modeling tool.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-12-01

In this FHWA-sponsored pool funded study, a set of decision making tools, based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was developed. This tool set is prepared for transportation specialists and decision-makers to determine if ABC is more effective ...

Training conservation practitioners to be better decision makers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Williams, James H.; Jensen, Gitte H.; Madsen, Jesper

2015-01-01

Traditional conservation curricula and training typically emphasizes only one part of systematic decision making (i.e., the science), at the expense of preparing conservation practitioners with critical skills in values-setting, working with decision makers and stakeholders, and effective problem framing. In this article we describe how the application of decision science is relevant to conservation problems and suggest how current and future conservation practitioners can be trained to be better decision makers. Though decision-analytic approaches vary considerably, they all involve: (1) properly formulating the decision problem; (2) specifying feasible alternative actions; and (3) selecting criteria for evaluating potential outcomes. Two approaches are available for providing training in decision science, with each serving different needs. Formal education is useful for providing simple, well-defined problems that allow demonstrations of the structure, axioms and general characteristics of a decision-analytic approach. In contrast, practical training can offer complex, realistic decision problems requiring more careful structuring and analysis than those used for formal training purposes. Ultimately, the kinds and degree of training necessary depend on the role conservation practitioners play in a decision-making process. Those attempting to facilitate decision-making processes will need advanced training in both technical aspects of decision science and in facilitation techniques, as well as opportunities to apprentice under decision analysts/consultants. Our primary goal should be an attempt to ingrain a discipline for applying clarity of thought to all decisions.

Use of the self-organising map network (SOMNet) as a decision support system for regional mental health planning.

PubMed

Chung, Younjin; Salvador-Carulla, Luis; Salinas-Pérez, José A; Uriarte-Uriarte, Jose J; Iruin-Sanz, Alvaro; García-Alonso, Carlos R

2018-04-25

Decision-making in mental health systems should be supported by the evidence-informed knowledge transfer of data. Since mental health systems are inherently complex, involving interactions between its structures, processes and outcomes, decision support systems (DSS) need to be developed using advanced computational methods and visual tools to allow full system analysis, whilst incorporating domain experts in the analysis process. In this study, we use a DSS model developed for interactive data mining and domain expert collaboration in the analysis of complex mental health systems to improve system knowledge and evidence-informed policy planning. We combine an interactive visual data mining approach, the self-organising map network (SOMNet), with an operational expert knowledge approach, expert-based collaborative analysis (EbCA), to develop a DSS model. The SOMNet was applied to the analysis of healthcare patterns and indicators of three different regional mental health systems in Spain, comprising 106 small catchment areas and providing healthcare for over 9 million inhabitants. Based on the EbCA, the domain experts in the development team guided and evaluated the analytical processes and results. Another group of 13 domain experts in mental health systems planning and research evaluated the model based on the analytical information of the SOMNet approach for processing information and discovering knowledge in a real-world context. Through the evaluation, the domain experts assessed the feasibility and technology readiness level (TRL) of the DSS model. The SOMNet, combined with the EbCA, effectively processed evidence-based information when analysing system outliers, explaining global and local patterns, and refining key performance indicators with their analytical interpretations. The evaluation results showed that the DSS model was feasible by the domain experts and reached level 7 of the TRL (system prototype demonstration in operational environment). This study supports the benefits of combining health systems engineering (SOMNet) and expert knowledge (EbCA) to analyse the complexity of health systems research. The use of the SOMNet approach contributes to the demonstration of DSS for mental health planning in practice.

Technology Enhanced Analytics (TEA) in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Daniel, Ben Kei; Butson, Russell

2013-01-01

This paper examines the role of Big Data Analytics in addressing contemporary challenges associated with current changes in institutions of higher education. The paper first explores the potential of Big Data Analytics to support instructors, students and policy analysts to make better evidence based decisions. Secondly, the paper presents an…

Research implications of science-informed, value-based decision making.

PubMed

Dowie, Jack

2004-01-01

In 'Hard' science, scientists correctly operate as the 'guardians of certainty', using hypothesis testing formulations and value judgements about error rates and time discounting that make classical inferential methods appropriate. But these methods can neither generate most of the inputs needed by decision makers in their time frame, nor generate them in a form that allows them to be integrated into the decision in an analytically coherent and transparent way. The need for transparent accountability in public decision making under uncertainty and value conflict means the analytical coherence provided by the stochastic Bayesian decision analytic approach, drawing on the outputs of Bayesian science, is needed. If scientific researchers are to play the role they should be playing in informing value-based decision making, they need to see themselves also as 'guardians of uncertainty', ensuring that the best possible current posterior distributions on relevant parameters are made available for decision making, irrespective of the state of the certainty-seeking research. The paper distinguishes the actors employing different technologies in terms of the focus of the technology (knowledge, values, choice); the 'home base' mode of their activity on the cognitive continuum of varying analysis-to-intuition ratios; and the underlying value judgements of the activity (especially error loss functions and time discount rates). Those who propose any principle of decision making other than the banal 'Best Principle', including the 'Precautionary Principle', are properly interpreted as advocates seeking to have their own value judgements and preferences regarding mode location apply. The task for accountable decision makers, and their supporting technologists, is to determine the best course of action under the universal conditions of uncertainty and value difference/conflict.

Exploring the Potential of Predictive Analytics and Big Data in Emergency Care.

PubMed

Janke, Alexander T; Overbeek, Daniel L; Kocher, Keith E; Levy, Phillip D

2016-02-01

Clinical research often focuses on resource-intensive causal inference, whereas the potential of predictive analytics with constantly increasing big data sources remains largely unexplored. Basic prediction, divorced from causal inference, is much easier with big data. Emergency care may benefit from this simpler application of big data. Historically, predictive analytics have played an important role in emergency care as simple heuristics for risk stratification. These tools generally follow a standard approach: parsimonious criteria, easy computability, and independent validation with distinct populations. Simplicity in a prediction tool is valuable, but technological advances make it no longer a necessity. Emergency care could benefit from clinical predictions built using data science tools with abundant potential input variables available in electronic medical records. Patients' risks could be stratified more precisely with large pools of data and lower resource requirements for comparing each clinical encounter to those that came before it, benefiting clinical decisionmaking and health systems operations. The largest value of predictive analytics comes early in the clinical encounter, in which diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty are high and resource-committing decisions need to be made. We propose an agenda for widening the application of predictive analytics in emergency care. Throughout, we express cautious optimism because there are myriad challenges related to database infrastructure, practitioner uptake, and patient acceptance. The quality of routinely compiled clinical data will remain an important limitation. Complementing big data sources with prospective data may be necessary if predictive analytics are to achieve their full potential to improve care quality in the emergency department. Copyright © 2015 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Failure detection system design methodology. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chow, E. Y.

1980-01-01

The design of a failure detection and identification system consists of designing a robust residual generation process and a high performance decision making process. The design of these two processes are examined separately. Residual generation is based on analytical redundancy. Redundancy relations that are insensitive to modelling errors and noise effects are important for designing robust residual generation processes. The characterization of the concept of analytical redundancy in terms of a generalized parity space provides a framework in which a systematic approach to the determination of robust redundancy relations are developed. The Bayesian approach is adopted for the design of high performance decision processes. The FDI decision problem is formulated as a Bayes sequential decision problem. Since the optimal decision rule is incomputable, a methodology for designing suboptimal rules is proposed. A numerical algorithm is developed to facilitate the design and performance evaluation of suboptimal rules.

Applying predictive analytics to develop an intelligent risk detection application for healthcare contexts.

PubMed

Moghimi, Fatemeh Hoda; Cheung, Michael; Wickramasinghe, Nilmini

2013-01-01

Healthcare is an information rich industry where successful outcomes require the processing of multi-spectral data and sound decision making. The exponential growth of data and big data issues coupled with a rapid increase of service demands in healthcare contexts today, requires a robust framework enabled by IT (information technology) solutions as well as real-time service handling in order to ensure superior decision making and successful healthcare outcomes. Such a context is appropriate for the application of real time intelligent risk detection decision support systems using predictive analytic techniques such as data mining. To illustrate the power and potential of data science technologies in healthcare decision making scenarios, the use of an intelligent risk detection (IRD) model is proffered for the context of Congenital Heart Disease (CHD) in children, an area which requires complex high risk decisions that need to be made expeditiously and accurately in order to ensure successful healthcare outcomes.

Assessment regarding the use of the computer aided analytical models in the calculus of the general strength of a ship hull

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hreniuc, V.; Hreniuc, A.; Pescaru, A.

2017-08-01

Solving a general strength problem of a ship hull may be done using analytical approaches which are useful to deduce the buoyancy forces distribution, the weighting forces distribution along the hull and the geometrical characteristics of the sections. These data are used to draw the free body diagrams and to compute the stresses. The general strength problems require a large amount of calculi, therefore it is interesting how a computer may be used to solve such problems. Using computer programming an engineer may conceive software instruments based on analytical approaches. However, before developing the computer code the research topic must be thoroughly analysed, in this way being reached a meta-level of understanding of the problem. The following stage is to conceive an appropriate development strategy of the original software instruments useful for the rapid development of computer aided analytical models. The geometrical characteristics of the sections may be computed using a bool algebra that operates with ‘simple’ geometrical shapes. By ‘simple’ we mean that for the according shapes we have direct calculus relations. In the set of ‘simple’ shapes we also have geometrical entities bounded by curves approximated as spline functions or as polygons. To conclude, computer programming offers the necessary support to solve general strength ship hull problems using analytical methods.

Multicriteria decision analysis in ranking of analytical procedures for aldrin determination in water.

PubMed

Tobiszewski, Marek; Orłowski, Aleksander

2015-03-27

The study presents the possibility of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) application when choosing analytical procedures with low environmental impact. A type of MCDA, Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE), was chosen as versatile tool that meets all the analytical chemists--decision makers requirements. Twenty five analytical procedures for aldrin determination in water samples (as an example) were selected as input alternatives to MCDA analysis. Nine different criteria describing the alternatives were chosen from different groups--metrological, economical and the most importantly--environmental impact. The weights for each criterion were obtained from questionnaires that were sent to experts, giving three different scenarios for MCDA results. The results of analysis show that PROMETHEE is very promising tool to choose the analytical procedure with respect to its greenness. The rankings for all three scenarios placed solid phase microextraction and liquid phase microextraction--based procedures high, while liquid-liquid extraction, solid phase extraction and stir bar sorptive extraction--based procedures were placed low in the ranking. The results show that although some of the experts do not intentionally choose green analytical chemistry procedures, their MCDA choice is in accordance with green chemistry principles. The PROMETHEE ranking results were compared with more widely accepted green analytical chemistry tools--NEMI and Eco-Scale. As PROMETHEE involved more different factors than NEMI, the assessment results were only weakly correlated. Oppositely, the results of Eco-Scale assessment were well-correlated as both methodologies involved similar criteria of assessment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lending Officers' Decisions to Recommend Innovative Agricultural Technology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McIntosh, Wm. Alex; Zey-Ferrell, Mary

1986-01-01

Path analysis examines an analytical model of decision making by lending officers of 211 Texas banks when recommending agricultural technology to farmer-clients. Model analyzes effects of loan officers' ascribed/achieved personal characteristics and perceptions of organizational constraints during three stages of decision process: using…

THE FUTURE OF SUSTAINABLE MANAGEMENT APPROACHES AND REVITALIZATION TOOLS-ELECTRONIC (SMARTE): 2006-2010

EPA Science Inventory

SMARTe is being developed to give stakeholders information resources, analytical tools, communication strategies, and a decision analysis approach to be able to make better decisions regarding future uses of property. The development of the communication tools and decision analys...

Multi-criteria decision analysis for waste management in Saharawi refugee camps

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garfi, M.; Tondelli, S.; Bonoli, A.

2009-10-15

The aim of this paper is to compare different waste management solutions in Saharawi refugee camps (Algeria) and to test the feasibility of a decision-making method developed to be applied in particular conditions in which environmental and social aspects must be considered. It is based on multi criteria analysis, and in particular on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a mathematical technique for multi-criteria decision making (Saaty, T.L., 1980. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw-Hill, New York, USA; Saaty, T.L., 1990. How to Make a Decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process. European Journal of Operational Research; Saaty, T.L., 1994. Decision Making for Leaders:more » The Analytic Hierarchy Process in a Complex World. RWS Publications, Pittsburgh, PA), and on participatory approach, focusing on local community's concerns. The research compares four different waste collection and management alternatives: waste collection by using three tipper trucks, disposal and burning in an open area; waste collection by using seven dumpers and disposal in a landfill; waste collection by using seven dumpers and three tipper trucks and disposal in a landfill; waste collection by using three tipper trucks and disposal in a landfill. The results show that the second and the third solutions provide better scenarios for waste management. Furthermore, the discussion of the results points out the multidisciplinarity of the approach, and the equilibrium between social, environmental and technical impacts. This is a very important aspect in a humanitarian and environmental project, confirming the appropriateness of the chosen method.« less

Improving Adolescent Judgment and Decision Making

PubMed Central

Dansereau, Donald F.; Knight, Danica K.; Flynn, Patrick M.

2013-01-01

Human judgment and decision making (JDM) has substantial room for improvement, especially among adolescents. Increased technological and social complexity “ups the ante” for developing impactful JDM interventions and aids. Current explanatory advances in this field emphasize dual processing models that incorporate both experiential and analytic processing systems. According to these models, judgment and decisions based on the experiential system are rapid and stem from automatic reference to previously stored episodes. Those based on the analytic system are viewed as slower and consciously developed. These models also hypothesize that metacognitive (self-monitoring) activities embedded in the analytic system influence how and when the two systems are used. What is not included in these models is the development of an intersection between the two systems. Because such an intersection is strongly suggested by memory and educational research as the basis of wisdom/expertise, the present paper describes an Integrated Judgment and Decision-Making Model (IJDM) that incorporates this component. Wisdom/expertise is hypothesized to contain a collection of schematic structures that can emerge from the accumulation of similar episodes or repeated analytic practice. As will be argued, in comparisons to dual system models, the addition of this component provides a broader basis for selecting and designing interventions to improve adolescent JDM. Its development also has implications for generally enhancing cognitive interventions by adopting principles from athletic training to create automated, expert behaviors. PMID:24391350

NASA program decisions using reliability analysis.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Steinberg, A.

1972-01-01

NASA made use of the analytical outputs of reliability people to make management decisions on the Apollo program. Such decisions affected the amount of the incentive fees, how much acceptance testing was necessary, how to optimize development testing, whether to approve engineering changes, and certification of flight readiness. Examples of such analysis are discussed and related to programmatic decisions.-

Climate Analytics as a Service. Chapter 11

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schnase, John L.

2016-01-01

Exascale computing, big data, and cloud computing are driving the evolution of large-scale information systems toward a model of data-proximal analysis. In response, we are developing a concept of climate analytics as a service (CAaaS) that represents a convergence of data analytics and archive management. With this approach, high-performance compute-storage implemented as an analytic system is part of a dynamic archive comprising both static and computationally realized objects. It is a system whose capabilities are framed as behaviors over a static data collection, but where queries cause results to be created, not found and retrieved. Those results can be the product of a complex analysis, but, importantly, they also can be tailored responses to the simplest of requests. NASA's MERRA Analytic Service and associated Climate Data Services API provide a real-world example of climate analytics delivered as a service in this way. Our experiences reveal several advantages to this approach, not the least of which is orders-of-magnitude time reduction in the data assembly task common to many scientific workflows.

Analytics4Action Evaluation Framework: A Review of Evidence-Based Learning Analytics Interventions at the Open University UK

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rienties, Bart; Boroowa, Avinash; Cross, Simon; Kubiak, Chris; Mayles, Kevin; Murphy, Sam

2016-01-01

There is an urgent need to develop an evidence-based framework for learning analytics whereby stakeholders can manage, evaluate, and make decisions about which types of interventions work well and under which conditions. In this article, we will work towards developing a foundation of an Analytics4Action Evaluation Framework (A4AEF) that is…

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: a novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making.

PubMed

Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Vickers, Andrew; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2010-09-16

Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly in those clinical situations when the best management option is the one associated with the least amount of regret (e.g. diagnosis and treatment of advanced cancer, etc).

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly in those clinical situations when the best management option is the one associated with the least amount of regret (e.g. diagnosis and treatment of advanced cancer, etc). PMID:20846413

An analytical framework to assist decision makers in the use of forest ecosystem model predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larocque, Guy R.; Bhatti, Jagtar S.; Ascough, J.C.; Liu, J.; Luckai, N.; Mailly, D.; Archambault, L.; Gordon, Andrew M.

2011-01-01

The predictions from most forest ecosystem models originate from deterministic simulations. However, few evaluation exercises for model outputs are performed by either model developers or users. This issue has important consequences for decision makers using these models to develop natural resource management policies, as they cannot evaluate the extent to which predictions stemming from the simulation of alternative management scenarios may result in significant environmental or economic differences. Various numerical methods, such as sensitivity/uncertainty analyses, or bootstrap methods, may be used to evaluate models and the errors associated with their outputs. However, the application of each of these methods carries unique challenges which decision makers do not necessarily understand; guidance is required when interpreting the output generated from each model. This paper proposes a decision flow chart in the form of an analytical framework to help decision makers apply, in an orderly fashion, different steps involved in examining the model outputs. The analytical framework is discussed with regard to the definition of problems and objectives and includes the following topics: model selection, identification of alternatives, modelling tasks and selecting alternatives for developing policy or implementing management scenarios. Its application is illustrated using an on-going exercise in developing silvicultural guidelines for a forest management enterprise in Ontario, Canada.

TRAC, a collaborative computer tool for tracer-test interpretation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutierrez, A.; Klinka, T.; Thiéry, D.; Buscarlet, E.; Binet, S.; Jozja, N.; Défarge, C.; Leclerc, B.; Fécamp, C.; Ahumada, Y.; Elsass, J.

2013-05-01

Artificial tracer tests are widely used by consulting engineers for demonstrating water circulation, proving the existence of leakage, or estimating groundwater velocity. However, the interpretation of such tests is often very basic, with the result that decision makers and professionals commonly face unreliable results through hasty and empirical interpretation. There is thus an increasing need for a reliable interpretation tool, compatible with the latest operating systems and available in several languages. BRGM, the French Geological Survey, has developed a project together with hydrogeologists from various other organizations to build software assembling several analytical solutions in order to comply with various field contexts. This computer program, called TRAC, is very light and simple, allowing the user to add his own analytical solution if the formula is not yet included. It aims at collaborative improvement by sharing the tool and the solutions. TRAC can be used for interpreting data recovered from a tracer test as well as for simulating the transport of a tracer in the saturated zone (for the time being). Calibration of a site operation is based on considering the hydrodynamic and hydrodispersive features of groundwater flow as well as the amount, nature and injection mode of the artificial tracer. The software is available in French, English and Spanish, and the latest version can be downloaded from the web site http://trac.brgm.fr">http://trac.brgm.fr.

Hierarchical analysis of bridge decision makers : the role of new technology adoption in the timber bridge market : special project fiscal year 1992

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-08-01

Bridge design engineers and local highway officials make bridge replacement decisions across the : United States. The Analytical Hierarchy Process was used to characterize the bridge material selection : decision of these individuals. State Departmen...

Conflicts of interest improve collective computation of adaptive social structures

PubMed Central

Brush, Eleanor R.; Krakauer, David C.; Flack, Jessica C.

2018-01-01

In many biological systems, the functional behavior of a group is collectively computed by the system’s individual components. An example is the brain’s ability to make decisions via the activity of billions of neurons. A long-standing puzzle is how the components’ decisions combine to produce beneficial group-level outputs, despite conflicts of interest and imperfect information. We derive a theoretical model of collective computation from mechanistic first principles, using results from previous work on the computation of power structure in a primate model system. Collective computation has two phases: an information accumulation phase, in which (in this study) pairs of individuals gather information about their fighting abilities and make decisions about their dominance relationships, and an information aggregation phase, in which these decisions are combined to produce a collective computation. To model information accumulation, we extend a stochastic decision-making model—the leaky integrator model used to study neural decision-making—to a multiagent game-theoretic framework. We then test alternative algorithms for aggregating information—in this study, decisions about dominance resulting from the stochastic model—and measure the mutual information between the resultant power structure and the “true” fighting abilities. We find that conflicts of interest can improve accuracy to the benefit of all agents. We also find that the computation can be tuned to produce different power structures by changing the cost of waiting for a decision. The successful application of a similar stochastic decision-making model in neural and social contexts suggests general principles of collective computation across substrates and scales. PMID:29376116

The Purpose of Analytical Models from the Perspective of a Data Provider.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sheehan, Bernard S.

The purpose of analytical models is to reduce complex institutional management problems and situations to simpler proportions and compressed time frames so that human skills of decision makers can be brought to bear most effectively. Also, modeling cultivates the art of management by forcing explicit and analytical consideration of important…

Towards Secure and Trustworthy Cyberspace: Social Media Analytics on Hacker Communities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Weifeng

2017-01-01

Social media analytics is a critical research area spawned by the increasing availability of rich and abundant online user-generated content. So far, social media analytics has had a profound impact on organizational decision making in many aspects, including product and service design, market segmentation, customer relationship management, and…

Adaptive neural coding: from biological to behavioral decision-making

PubMed Central

Louie, Kenway; Glimcher, Paul W.; Webb, Ryan

2015-01-01

Empirical decision-making in diverse species deviates from the predictions of normative choice theory, but why such suboptimal behavior occurs is unknown. Here, we propose that deviations from optimality arise from biological decision mechanisms that have evolved to maximize choice performance within intrinsic biophysical constraints. Sensory processing utilizes specific computations such as divisive normalization to maximize information coding in constrained neural circuits, and recent evidence suggests that analogous computations operate in decision-related brain areas. These adaptive computations implement a relative value code that may explain the characteristic context-dependent nature of behavioral violations of classical normative theory. Examining decision-making at the computational level thus provides a crucial link between the architecture of biological decision circuits and the form of empirical choice behavior. PMID:26722666

Decision Support Systems and the Conflict Model of Decision Making: A Stimulus for New Computer-Assisted Careers Guidance Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ballantine, R. Malcolm

Decision Support Systems (DSSs) are computer-based decision aids to use when making decisions which are partially amenable to rational decision-making procedures but contain elements where intuitive judgment is an essential component. In such situations, DSSs are used to improve the quality of decision-making. The DSS approach is based on Simon's…

Applying the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) to support risk-informed decision making: The Gold Pan Fire, Bitterroot National Forest, Montana, USA

Treesearch

Erin K. Noonan-Wright; Tonja S. Opperman

2015-01-01

In response to federal wildfire policy changes, risk-informed decision-making by way of improved decision support, is increasingly becoming a component of managing wildfires. As fire incidents escalate in size and complexity, the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) provides support with different analytical tools as fire conditions change. We demonstrate the...

Numerical Nuclear Second Derivatives on a Computing Grid: Enabling and Accelerating Frequency Calculations on Complex Molecular Systems.

PubMed

Yang, Tzuhsiung; Berry, John F

2018-06-04

The computation of nuclear second derivatives of energy, or the nuclear Hessian, is an essential routine in quantum chemical investigations of ground and transition states, thermodynamic calculations, and molecular vibrations. Analytic nuclear Hessian computations require the resolution of costly coupled-perturbed self-consistent field (CP-SCF) equations, while numerical differentiation of analytic first derivatives has an unfavorable 6 N ( N = number of atoms) prefactor. Herein, we present a new method in which grid computing is used to accelerate and/or enable the evaluation of the nuclear Hessian via numerical differentiation: NUMFREQ@Grid. Nuclear Hessians were successfully evaluated by NUMFREQ@Grid at the DFT level as well as using RIJCOSX-ZORA-MP2 or RIJCOSX-ZORA-B2PLYP for a set of linear polyacenes with systematically increasing size. For the larger members of this group, NUMFREQ@Grid was found to outperform the wall clock time of analytic Hessian evaluation; at the MP2 or B2LYP levels, these Hessians cannot even be evaluated analytically. We also evaluated a 156-atom catalytically relevant open-shell transition metal complex and found that NUMFREQ@Grid is faster (7.7 times shorter wall clock time) and less demanding (4.4 times less memory requirement) than an analytic Hessian. Capitalizing on the capabilities of parallel grid computing, NUMFREQ@Grid can outperform analytic methods in terms of wall time, memory requirements, and treatable system size. The NUMFREQ@Grid method presented herein demonstrates how grid computing can be used to facilitate embarrassingly parallel computational procedures and is a pioneer for future implementations.

Robust Decision Making: The Cognitive and Computational Modeling of Team Problem Solving for Decision Making under Complex and Dynamic Conditions

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-14

AFRL-OSR-VA-TR-2015-0202 Robust Decision Making: The Cognitive and Computational Modeling of Team Problem Solving for Decision Making under Complex...Computational Modeling of Team Problem Solving for Decision Making Under Complex and Dynamic Conditions 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER FA9550-12-1...functioning as they solve complex problems, and propose the means to improve the performance of teams, under changing or adversarial conditions. By

MIT CSAIL and Lincoln Laboratory Task Force Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-01

projects have been very diverse, spanning several areas of CSAIL concentration, including robotics, big data analytics , wireless communications...spanning several areas of CSAIL concentration, including robotics, big data analytics , wireless communications, computing architectures and...to machine learning systems and algorithms, such as recommender systems, and “Big Data ” analytics . Advanced computing architectures broadly refer to

Resilience Simulation for Water, Power & Road Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, S. S.; Seager, T. P.; Chester, M.; Eisenberg, D. A.; Sweet, D.; Linkov, I.

2014-12-01

The increasing frequency, scale, and damages associated with recent catastrophic events has called for a shift in focus from evading losses through risk analysis to improving threat preparation, planning, absorption, recovery, and adaptation through resilience. However, neither underlying theory nor analytic tools have kept pace with resilience rhetoric. As a consequence, current approaches to engineering resilience analysis often conflate resilience and robustness or collapse into a deeper commitment to the risk analytic paradigm proven problematic in the first place. This research seeks a generalizable understanding of resilience that is applicable in multiple disciplinary contexts. We adopt a unique investigative perspective by coupling social and technical analysis with human subjects research to discover the adaptive actions, ideas and decisions that contribute to resilience in three socio-technical infrastructure systems: electric power, water, and roadways. Our research integrates physical models representing network objects with examination of the knowledge systems and social interactions revealed by human subjects making decisions in a simulated crisis environment. To ensure a diversity of contexts, we model electric power, water, roadway and knowledge networks for Phoenix AZ and Indianapolis IN. We synthesize this in a new computer-based Resilient Infrastructure Simulation Environment (RISE) to allow individuals, groups (including students) and experts to test different network design configurations and crisis response approaches. By observing simulated failures and best performances, we expect a generalizable understanding of resilience may emerge that yields a measureable understanding of the sensing, anticipating, adapting, and learning processes that are essential to resilient organizations.

Visual Analytics Tools for Sustainable Lifecycle Design: Current Status, Challenges, and Future Opportunities.

PubMed

Ramanujan, Devarajan; Bernstein, William Z; Chandrasegaran, Senthil K; Ramani, Karthik

2017-01-01

The rapid rise in technologies for data collection has created an unmatched opportunity to advance the use of data-rich tools for lifecycle decision-making. However, the usefulness of these technologies is limited by the ability to translate lifecycle data into actionable insights for human decision-makers. This is especially true in the case of sustainable lifecycle design (SLD), as the assessment of environmental impacts, and the feasibility of making corresponding design changes, often relies on human expertise and intuition. Supporting human sense-making in SLD requires the use of both data-driven and user-driven methods while exploring lifecycle data. A promising approach for combining the two is through the use of visual analytics (VA) tools. Such tools can leverage the ability of computer-based tools to gather, process, and summarize data along with the ability of human-experts to guide analyses through domain knowledge or data-driven insight. In this paper, we review previous research that has created VA tools in SLD. We also highlight existing challenges and future opportunities for such tools in different lifecycle stages-design, manufacturing, distribution & supply chain, use-phase, end-of-life, as well as life cycle assessment. Our review shows that while the number of VA tools in SLD is relatively small, researchers are increasingly focusing on the subject matter. Our review also suggests that VA tools can address existing challenges in SLD and that significant future opportunities exist.

The use of the analytic hierarchy process to aid decision making in acquired equinovarus deformity.

PubMed

van Til, Janine A; Renzenbrink, Gerbert J; Dolan, James G; Ijzerman, Maarten J

2008-03-01

To increase the transparency of decision making about treatment in patients with equinovarus deformity poststroke. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used as a structured methodology to study the subjective rationale behind choice of treatment. An 8-hour meeting at a centrally located rehabilitation center in The Netherlands, during which a patient video was shown to all participants (using a personal computer and a large screen) and the patient details were provided on paper. A panel of 10 health professionals from different backgrounds. Not applicable. The performance of the applicable treatments on outcome, impact, comfort, cosmetics, daily effort, and risks and side effects of treatment, as well as the relative importance of criteria in the choice of treatment. According to the model, soft-tissue surgery (.413) ranked first as the preferred treatment, followed by orthopedic footwear (.181), ankle-foot orthosis (.147), surface electrostimulation (.137), and finally implanted electrostimulation (.123). Outcome was the most influential consideration affecting treatment choice (.509), followed by risk and side effects (.194), comfort (.104), daily effort (.098), cosmetics (.065), and impact of treatment (.030). Soft-tissue surgery was judged best on outcome, daily effort, comfortable shoe wear, and cosmetically acceptable result and was thereby preferred as a treatment alternative by the panel in this study. In contrast, orthosis and orthopedic footwear are usually preferred in daily practice. The AHP method was found to be suitable methodology for eliciting subjective opinions and quantitatively comparing treatments in the absence of scientific evidence.

ENergy and Power Evaluation Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1996-11-01

In the late 1970s, national and international attention began to focus on energy issues. Efforts were initiated to design and test analytical tools that could be used to assist energy planners in evaluating energy systems, particularly in developing countries. In 1984, the United States Department of Energy (DOE) commissioned Argonne National Laboratory`s Decision and Information Sciences Division (DIS) to incorporate a set of analytical tools into a personal computer-based package for distribution in developing countries. The package developed by DIS staff, the ENergy and Power Evaluation Program (ENPEP), covers the range of issues that energy planners must face: economic development,more » energy demand projections, supply-and-demand balancing, energy system expansion, and environmental impact analysis. Following the original DOE-supported development effort, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), with the assistance from the US Department of State (DOS) and the US Department of Energy (DOE), provided ENPEP training, distribution, and technical support to many countries. ENPEP is now in use in over 60 countries and is an international standard for energy planning tools. More than 500 energy experts have been trained in the use of the entire ENPEP package or some of its modules during the international training courses organized by the IAEA in collaboration with Argonne`s Decision and Information Sciences (DIS) Division and the Division of Educational Programs (DEP). This report contains the ENPEP program which can be download from the internet. Described in this report is the description of ENPEP Program, news, forums, online support and contacts.« less

On-line confidence monitoring during decision making.

PubMed

Dotan, Dror; Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

2018-02-01

Humans can readily assess their degree of confidence in their decisions. Two models of confidence computation have been proposed: post hoc computation using post-decision variables and heuristics, versus online computation using continuous assessment of evidence throughout the decision-making process. Here, we arbitrate between these theories by continuously monitoring finger movements during a manual sequential decision-making task. Analysis of finger kinematics indicated that subjects kept separate online records of evidence and confidence: finger deviation continuously reflected the ongoing accumulation of evidence, whereas finger speed continuously reflected the momentary degree of confidence. Furthermore, end-of-trial finger speed predicted the post-decisional subjective confidence rating. These data indicate that confidence is computed on-line, throughout the decision process. Speed-confidence correlations were previously interpreted as a post-decision heuristics, whereby slow decisions decrease subjective confidence, but our results suggest an adaptive mechanism that involves the opposite causality: by slowing down when unconfident, participants gain time to improve their decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mobility Data Analytics Center.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-01-01

Mobility Data Analytics Center aims at building a centralized data engine to efficiently manipulate : large-scale data for smart decision making. Integrating and learning the massive data are the key to : the data engine. The ultimate goal of underst...

A data mining system for providing analytical information on brain tumors to public health decision makers.

PubMed

Santos, R S; Malheiros, S M F; Cavalheiro, S; de Oliveira, J M Parente

2013-03-01

Cancer is the leading cause of death in economically developed countries and the second leading cause of death in developing countries. Malignant brain neoplasms are among the most devastating and incurable forms of cancer, and their treatment may be excessively complex and costly. Public health decision makers require significant amounts of analytical information to manage public treatment programs for these patients. Data mining, a technology that is used to produce analytically useful information, has been employed successfully with medical data. However, the large-scale adoption of this technique has been limited thus far because it is difficult to use, especially for non-expert users. One way to facilitate data mining by non-expert users is to automate the process. Our aim is to present an automated data mining system that allows public health decision makers to access analytical information regarding brain tumors. The emphasis in this study is the use of ontology in an automated data mining process. The non-experts who tried the system obtained useful information about the treatment of brain tumors. These results suggest that future work should be conducted in this area. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non-monetary valuation using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: Sensitivity of additive aggregation methods to scaling and compensation assumptions

EPA Science Inventory

Analytical methods for Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) support the non-monetary valuation of ecosystem services for environmental decision making. Many published case studies transform ecosystem service outcomes into a common metric and aggregate the outcomes to set land ...

Past developments and future directions for the AHP in natural resources

Treesearch

Daniel L. Schmoldt; G.A. Mendoza; Jyrki Kangas

2001-01-01

The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) possesses certain characteristics that make it a useful tool for natural resource decision making. The AHP’s capabilities include: participatory decision making, problem structuring and alternative development, group facilitation, consensus building, fairness, qualitative and quantitative information, conflict resolution, decision...

Beyond Decision Making: Cultural Ideology as Heuristic Paradigmatic Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whitley, L. Darrell

A paradigmatic model of cultural ideology provides a context for understanding the relationship between decision-making and personal and cultural rationality. Cultural rules or heuristics exist which indicate that many decisions can be made on the basis of established strategy rather than continual analytical calculations. When an optimal solution…

Decision analysis to address extreme weather : extreme weather effects on ridership and modeling the decision to invest in canopy coverage.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-09-01

This project applies a decision analytic methodology that takes considerations of extreme weather events to quantify and assess canopy investment options. The project collected data for two cases studies in two different transit agencies: Chicago Tra...

The impact of using computer decision-support software in primary care nurse-led telephone triage: interactional dilemmas and conversational consequences.

PubMed

Murdoch, Jamie; Barnes, Rebecca; Pooler, Jillian; Lattimer, Valerie; Fletcher, Emily; Campbell, John L

2015-02-01

Telephone triage represents one strategy to manage demand for face-to-face GP appointments in primary care. Although computer decision-support software (CDSS) is increasingly used by nurses to triage patients, little is understood about how interaction is organized in this setting. Specifically any interactional dilemmas this computer-mediated setting invokes; and how these may be consequential for communication with patients. Using conversation analytic methods we undertook a multi-modal analysis of 22 audio-recorded telephone triage nurse-caller interactions from one GP practice in England, including 10 video-recordings of nurses' use of CDSS during triage. We draw on Goffman's theoretical notion of participation frameworks to make sense of these interactions, presenting 'telling cases' of interactional dilemmas nurses faced in meeting patient's needs and accurately documenting the patient's condition within the CDSS. Our findings highlight troubles in the 'interactional workability' of telephone triage exposing difficulties faced in aligning the proximal and wider distal context that structures CDSS-mediated interactions. Patients present with diverse symptoms, understanding of triage consultations, and communication skills which nurses need to negotiate turn-by-turn with CDSS requirements. Nurses therefore need to have sophisticated communication, technological and clinical skills to ensure patients' presenting problems are accurately captured within the CDSS to determine safe triage outcomes. Dilemmas around how nurses manage and record information, and the issues of professional accountability that may ensue, raise questions about the impact of CDSS and its use in supporting nurses to deliver safe and effective patient care. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A weight based genetic algorithm for selecting views

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Talebian, Seyed H.; Kareem, Sameem A.

2013-03-01

Data warehouse is a technology designed for supporting decision making. Data warehouse is made by extracting large amount of data from different operational systems; transforming it to a consistent form and loading it to the central repository. The type of queries in data warehouse environment differs from those in operational systems. In contrast to operational systems, the analytical queries that are issued in data warehouses involve summarization of large volume of data and therefore in normal circumstance take a long time to be answered. On the other hand, the result of these queries must be answered in a short time to enable managers to make decisions as short time as possible. As a result, an essential need in this environment is in improving the performances of queries. One of the most popular methods to do this task is utilizing pre-computed result of queries. In this method, whenever a new query is submitted by the user instead of calculating the query on the fly through a large underlying database, the pre-computed result or views are used to answer the queries. Although, the ideal option would be pre-computing and saving all possible views, but, in practice due to disk space constraint and overhead due to view updates it is not considered as a feasible choice. Therefore, we need to select a subset of possible views to save on disk. The problem of selecting the right subset of views is considered as an important challenge in data warehousing. In this paper we suggest a Weighted Based Genetic Algorithm (WBGA) for solving the view selection problem with two objectives.

Features of Computer-Based Decision Aids: Systematic Review, Thematic Synthesis, and Meta-Analyses.

PubMed

Syrowatka, Ania; Krömker, Dörthe; Meguerditchian, Ari N; Tamblyn, Robyn

2016-01-26

Patient information and education, such as decision aids, are gradually moving toward online, computer-based environments. Considerable research has been conducted to guide content and presentation of decision aids. However, given the relatively new shift to computer-based support, little attention has been given to how multimedia and interactivity can improve upon paper-based decision aids. The first objective of this review was to summarize published literature into a proposed classification of features that have been integrated into computer-based decision aids. Building on this classification, the second objective was to assess whether integration of specific features was associated with higher-quality decision making. Relevant studies were located by searching MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and CENTRAL databases. The review identified studies that evaluated computer-based decision aids for adults faced with preference-sensitive medical decisions and reported quality of decision-making outcomes. A thematic synthesis was conducted to develop the classification of features. Subsequently, meta-analyses were conducted based on standardized mean differences (SMD) from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that reported knowledge or decisional conflict. Further subgroup analyses compared pooled SMDs for decision aids that incorporated a specific feature to other computer-based decision aids that did not incorporate the feature, to assess whether specific features improved quality of decision making. Of 3541 unique publications, 58 studies met the target criteria and were included in the thematic synthesis. The synthesis identified six features: content control, tailoring, patient narratives, explicit values clarification, feedback, and social support. A subset of 26 RCTs from the thematic synthesis was used to conduct the meta-analyses. As expected, computer-based decision aids performed better than usual care or alternative aids; however, some features performed better than others. Integration of content control improved quality of decision making (SMD 0.59 vs 0.23 for knowledge; SMD 0.39 vs 0.29 for decisional conflict). In contrast, tailoring reduced quality of decision making (SMD 0.40 vs 0.71 for knowledge; SMD 0.25 vs 0.52 for decisional conflict). Similarly, patient narratives also reduced quality of decision making (SMD 0.43 vs 0.65 for knowledge; SMD 0.17 vs 0.46 for decisional conflict). Results were varied for different types of explicit values clarification, feedback, and social support. Integration of media rich or interactive features into computer-based decision aids can improve quality of preference-sensitive decision making. However, this is an emerging field with limited evidence to guide use. The systematic review and thematic synthesis identified features that have been integrated into available computer-based decision aids, in an effort to facilitate reporting of these features and to promote integration of such features into decision aids. The meta-analyses and associated subgroup analyses provide preliminary evidence to support integration of specific features into future decision aids. Further research can focus on clarifying independent contributions of specific features through experimental designs and refining the designs of features to improve effectiveness.

Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) as a tool in asset allocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zainol Abidin, Siti Nazifah; Mohd Jaffar, Maheran

2013-04-01

Allocation capital investment into different assets is the best way to balance the risk and reward. This can prevent from losing big amount of money. Thus, the aim of this paper is to help investors in making wise investment decision in asset allocation. This paper proposes modifying and adapting Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model. The AHP model is widely used in various fields of study that are related in decision making. The results of the case studies show that the proposed model can categorize stocks and determine the portion of capital investment. Hence, it can assist investors in decision making process and reduce the risk of loss in stock market investment.

Application of Adaptive Decision Aiding Systems to Computer-Assisted Instruction. Final Report, January-December 1974.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

May, Donald M.; And Others

The minicomputer-based Computerized Diagnostic and Decision Training (CDDT) system described combines the principles of artificial intelligence, decision theory, and adaptive computer assisted instruction for training in electronic troubleshooting. The system incorporates an adaptive computer program which learns the student's diagnostic and…

Decision analysis to complete diagnostic research by closing the gap between test characteristics and cost-effectiveness.

PubMed

Schaafsma, Joanna D; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Rinkel, Gabriel J E; Buskens, Erik

2009-12-01

The lack of a standard methodology in diagnostic research impedes adequate evaluation before implementation of constantly developing diagnostic techniques. We discuss the methodology of diagnostic research and underscore the relevance of decision analysis in the process of evaluation of diagnostic tests. Overview and conceptual discussion. Diagnostic research requires a stepwise approach comprising assessment of test characteristics followed by evaluation of added value, clinical outcome, and cost-effectiveness. These multiple goals are generally incompatible with a randomized design. Decision-analytic models provide an important alternative through integration of the best available evidence. Thus, critical assessment of clinical value and efficient use of resources can be achieved. Decision-analytic models should be considered part of the standard methodology in diagnostic research. They can serve as a valid alternative to diagnostic randomized clinical trials (RCTs).

Development of a robust space power system decision model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chew, Gilbert; Pelaccio, Dennis G.; Jacobs, Mark; Stancati, Michael; Cataldo, Robert

2001-02-01

NASA continues to evaluate power systems to support human exploration of the Moon and Mars. The system(s) would address all power needs of surface bases and on-board power for space transfer vehicles. Prior studies have examined both solar and nuclear-based alternatives with respect to individual issues such as sizing or cost. What has not been addressed is a comprehensive look at the risks and benefits of the options that could serve as the analytical framework to support a system choice that best serves the needs of the exploration program. This paper describes the SAIC developed Space Power System Decision Model, which uses a formal Two-step Analytical Hierarchy Process (TAHP) methodology that is used in the decision-making process to clearly distinguish candidate power systems in terms of benefits, safety, and risk. TAHP is a decision making process based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process, which employs a hierarchic approach of structuring decision factors by weights, and relatively ranks system design options on a consistent basis. This decision process also includes a level of data gathering and organization that produces a consistent, well-documented assessment, from which the capability of each power system option to meet top-level goals can be prioritized. The model defined on this effort focuses on the comparative assessment candidate power system options for Mars surface application(s). This paper describes the principles of this approach, the assessment criteria and weighting procedures, and the tools to capture and assess the expert knowledge associated with space power system evaluation. .

Deciding about fast and slow decisions.

PubMed

Croskerry, Pat; Petrie, David A; Reilly, James B; Tait, Gordon

2014-02-01

Two reports in this issue address the important topic of clinical decision making. Dual process theory has emerged as the dominant model for understanding the complex processes that underlie human decision making. This theory distinguishes between the reflexive, autonomous processes that characterize intuitive decision making and the deliberate reasoning of an analytical approach. In this commentary, the authors address the polarization of viewpoints that has developed around the relative merits of the two systems. Although intuitive processes are typically fast and analytical processes slow, speed alone does not distinguish them. In any event, the majority of decisions in clinical medicine are not dependent on very short response times. What does appear relevant to diagnostic ease and accuracy is the degree to which the symptoms of the disease being diagnosed are characteristic ones. There are also concerns around some methodological issues related to research design in this area of enquiry. Reductionist approaches that attempt to isolate dependent variables may create such artificial experimental conditions that both external and ecological validity are sacrificed. Clinical decision making is a complex process with many independent (and interdependent) variables that need to be separated out in a discrete fashion and then reflected on in real time to preserve the fidelity of clinical practice. With these caveats in mind, the authors believe that research in this area should promote a better understanding of clinical practice and teaching by focusing less on the deficiencies of intuitive and analytical systems and more on their adaptive strengths.

Use of handheld computers in clinical practice: a systematic review.

PubMed

Mickan, Sharon; Atherton, Helen; Roberts, Nia Wyn; Heneghan, Carl; Tilson, Julie K

2014-07-06

Many healthcare professionals use smartphones and tablets to inform patient care. Contemporary research suggests that handheld computers may support aspects of clinical diagnosis and management. This systematic review was designed to synthesise high quality evidence to answer the question; Does healthcare professionals' use of handheld computers improve their access to information and support clinical decision making at the point of care? A detailed search was conducted using Cochrane, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Science and Social Science Citation Indices since 2001. Interventions promoting healthcare professionals seeking information or making clinical decisions using handheld computers were included. Classroom learning and the use of laptop computers were excluded. Two authors independently selected studies, assessed quality using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool and extracted data. High levels of data heterogeneity negated statistical synthesis. Instead, evidence for effectiveness was summarised narratively, according to each study's aim for assessing the impact of handheld computer use. We included seven randomised trials investigating medical or nursing staffs' use of Personal Digital Assistants. Effectiveness was demonstrated across three distinct functions that emerged from the data: accessing information for clinical knowledge, adherence to guidelines and diagnostic decision making. When healthcare professionals used handheld computers to access clinical information, their knowledge improved significantly more than peers who used paper resources. When clinical guideline recommendations were presented on handheld computers, clinicians made significantly safer prescribing decisions and adhered more closely to recommendations than peers using paper resources. Finally, healthcare professionals made significantly more appropriate diagnostic decisions using clinical decision making tools on handheld computers compared to colleagues who did not have access to these tools. For these clinical decisions, the numbers need to test/screen were all less than 11. Healthcare professionals' use of handheld computers may improve their information seeking, adherence to guidelines and clinical decision making. Handheld computers can provide real time access to and analysis of clinical information. The integration of clinical decision support systems within handheld computers offers clinicians the highest level of synthesised evidence at the point of care. Future research is needed to replicate these early results and to identify beneficial clinical outcomes.

Use of handheld computers in clinical practice: a systematic review

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Many healthcare professionals use smartphones and tablets to inform patient care. Contemporary research suggests that handheld computers may support aspects of clinical diagnosis and management. This systematic review was designed to synthesise high quality evidence to answer the question; Does healthcare professionals’ use of handheld computers improve their access to information and support clinical decision making at the point of care? Methods A detailed search was conducted using Cochrane, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Science and Social Science Citation Indices since 2001. Interventions promoting healthcare professionals seeking information or making clinical decisions using handheld computers were included. Classroom learning and the use of laptop computers were excluded. Two authors independently selected studies, assessed quality using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool and extracted data. High levels of data heterogeneity negated statistical synthesis. Instead, evidence for effectiveness was summarised narratively, according to each study’s aim for assessing the impact of handheld computer use. Results We included seven randomised trials investigating medical or nursing staffs’ use of Personal Digital Assistants. Effectiveness was demonstrated across three distinct functions that emerged from the data: accessing information for clinical knowledge, adherence to guidelines and diagnostic decision making. When healthcare professionals used handheld computers to access clinical information, their knowledge improved significantly more than peers who used paper resources. When clinical guideline recommendations were presented on handheld computers, clinicians made significantly safer prescribing decisions and adhered more closely to recommendations than peers using paper resources. Finally, healthcare professionals made significantly more appropriate diagnostic decisions using clinical decision making tools on handheld computers compared to colleagues who did not have access to these tools. For these clinical decisions, the numbers need to test/screen were all less than 11. Conclusion Healthcare professionals’ use of handheld computers may improve their information seeking, adherence to guidelines and clinical decision making. Handheld computers can provide real time access to and analysis of clinical information. The integration of clinical decision support systems within handheld computers offers clinicians the highest level of synthesised evidence at the point of care. Future research is needed to replicate these early results and to identify beneficial clinical outcomes. PMID:24998515

Extensions to decision curve analysis, a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers

PubMed Central

Vickers, Andrew J; Cronin, Angel M; Elkin, Elena B; Gonen, Mithat

2008-01-01

Background Decision curve analysis is a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers. It combines the mathematical simplicity of accuracy measures, such as sensitivity and specificity, with the clinical applicability of decision analytic approaches. Most critically, decision curve analysis can be applied directly to a data set, and does not require the sort of external data on costs, benefits and preferences typically required by traditional decision analytic techniques. Methods In this paper we present several extensions to decision curve analysis including correction for overfit, confidence intervals, application to censored data (including competing risk) and calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities. All of these extensions are based on straightforward methods that have previously been described in the literature for application to analogous statistical techniques. Results Simulation studies showed that repeated 10-fold crossvalidation provided the best method for correcting a decision curve for overfit. The method for applying decision curves to censored data had little bias and coverage was excellent; for competing risk, decision curves were appropriately affected by the incidence of the competing risk and the association between the competing risk and the predictor of interest. Calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities led to a smoothing of the decision curve. Conclusion Decision curve analysis can be easily extended to many of the applications common to performance measures for prediction models. Software to implement decision curve analysis is provided. PMID:19036144

Extensions to decision curve analysis, a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers.

PubMed

Vickers, Andrew J; Cronin, Angel M; Elkin, Elena B; Gonen, Mithat

2008-11-26

Decision curve analysis is a novel method for evaluating diagnostic tests, prediction models and molecular markers. It combines the mathematical simplicity of accuracy measures, such as sensitivity and specificity, with the clinical applicability of decision analytic approaches. Most critically, decision curve analysis can be applied directly to a data set, and does not require the sort of external data on costs, benefits and preferences typically required by traditional decision analytic techniques. In this paper we present several extensions to decision curve analysis including correction for overfit, confidence intervals, application to censored data (including competing risk) and calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities. All of these extensions are based on straightforward methods that have previously been described in the literature for application to analogous statistical techniques. Simulation studies showed that repeated 10-fold crossvalidation provided the best method for correcting a decision curve for overfit. The method for applying decision curves to censored data had little bias and coverage was excellent; for competing risk, decision curves were appropriately affected by the incidence of the competing risk and the association between the competing risk and the predictor of interest. Calculation of decision curves directly from predicted probabilities led to a smoothing of the decision curve. Decision curve analysis can be easily extended to many of the applications common to performance measures for prediction models. Software to implement decision curve analysis is provided.

Exploring the Use of Computer Simulations in Unraveling Research and Development Governance Problems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balaban, Mariusz A.; Hester, Patrick T.

2012-01-01

Understanding Research and Development (R&D) enterprise relationships and processes at a governance level is not a simple task, but valuable decision-making insight and evaluation capabilities can be gained from their exploration through computer simulations. This paper discusses current Modeling and Simulation (M&S) methods, addressing their applicability to R&D enterprise governance. Specifically, the authors analyze advantages and disadvantages of the four methodologies used most often by M&S practitioners: System Dynamics (SO), Discrete Event Simulation (DES), Agent Based Modeling (ABM), and formal Analytic Methods (AM) for modeling systems at the governance level. Moreover, the paper describes nesting models using a multi-method approach. Guidance is provided to those seeking to employ modeling techniques in an R&D enterprise for the purposes of understanding enterprise governance. Further, an example is modeled and explored for potential insight. The paper concludes with recommendations regarding opportunities for concentration of future work in modeling and simulating R&D governance relationships and processes.

Student Attitudes toward Learning Analytics in Higher Education: "The Fitbit Version of the Learning World".

PubMed

Roberts, Lynne D; Howell, Joel A; Seaman, Kristen; Gibson, David C

2016-01-01

Increasingly, higher education institutions are exploring the potential of learning analytics to predict student retention, understand learning behaviors, and improve student learning through providing personalized feedback and support. The technical development of learning analytics has outpaced consideration of ethical issues surrounding their use. Of particular concern is the absence of the student voice in decision-making about learning analytics. We explored higher education students' knowledge, attitudes, and concerns about big data and learning analytics through four focus groups ( N = 41). Thematic analysis of the focus group transcripts identified six key themes. The first theme, "Uninformed and Uncertain," represents students' lack of knowledge about learning analytics prior to the focus groups. Following the provision of information, viewing of videos and discussion of learning analytics scenarios three further themes; "Help or Hindrance to Learning," "More than a Number," and "Impeding Independence"; represented students' perceptions of the likely impact of learning analytics on their learning. "Driving Inequality" and "Where Will it Stop?" represent ethical concerns raised by the students about the potential for inequity, bias and invasion of privacy and the need for informed consent. A key tension to emerge was how "personal" vs. "collective" purposes or principles can intersect with "uniform" vs. "autonomous" activity. The findings highlight the need the need to engage students in the decision making process about learning analytics.

Analytic models of ducted turbomachinery tone noise sources. Volume 2: Subprogram documentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, T. L.; Ganz, U. W.; Graf, G. A.; Westall, J. S.

1974-01-01

Analytical models were developed for computing the periodic sound pressures of subsonic fans in an infinite hardwall annular duct with uniform flow. The computer programs are described which are used for numerical computations of sound pressure mode amplitudes. The data are applied to the acoustic properties of turbomachinery.

An Overview of Learning Analytics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zilvinskis, John; Willis, James, III; Borden, Victor M. H.

2017-01-01

The purpose of this chapter is to provide administrators and faculty with an understanding of learning analytics and its relationship to existing roles and functions so better institutional decisions can be made about investments and activities related to these technologies.

ClimateSpark: An in-memory distributed computing framework for big climate data analytics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Fei; Yang, Chaowei; Schnase, John L.; Duffy, Daniel Q.; Xu, Mengchao; Bowen, Michael K.; Lee, Tsengdar; Song, Weiwei

2018-06-01

The unprecedented growth of climate data creates new opportunities for climate studies, and yet big climate data pose a grand challenge to climatologists to efficiently manage and analyze big data. The complexity of climate data content and analytical algorithms increases the difficulty of implementing algorithms on high performance computing systems. This paper proposes an in-memory, distributed computing framework, ClimateSpark, to facilitate complex big data analytics and time-consuming computational tasks. Chunking data structure improves parallel I/O efficiency, while a spatiotemporal index is built for the chunks to avoid unnecessary data reading and preprocessing. An integrated, multi-dimensional, array-based data model (ClimateRDD) and ETL operations are developed to address big climate data variety by integrating the processing components of the climate data lifecycle. ClimateSpark utilizes Spark SQL and Apache Zeppelin to develop a web portal to facilitate the interaction among climatologists, climate data, analytic operations and computing resources (e.g., using SQL query and Scala/Python notebook). Experimental results show that ClimateSpark conducts different spatiotemporal data queries/analytics with high efficiency and data locality. ClimateSpark is easily adaptable to other big multiple-dimensional, array-based datasets in various geoscience domains.

Integrated optimisation technique based on computer-aided capacity and safety evaluation for managing downstream lane-drop merging area of signalised junctions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, CHAI; Yiik Diew, WONG

2017-02-01

This study provides an integrated strategy, encompassing microscopic simulation, safety assessment, and multi-attribute decision-making, to optimize traffic performance at downstream merging area of signalized intersections. A Fuzzy Cellular Automata (FCA) model is developed to replicate microscopic movement and merging behavior. Based on simulation experiment, the proposed FCA approach is able to provide capacity and safety evaluation of different traffic scenarios. The results are then evaluated through data envelopment analysis (DEA) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Optimized geometric layout and control strategies are then suggested for various traffic conditions. An optimal lane-drop distance that is dependent on traffic volume and speed limit can thus be established at the downstream merging area.

Learning Analytics: Insights into the Natural Learning Behavior of Our Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Becker, Bernd

2013-01-01

The migration from traditional classrooms to online learning environments is in full effect. In the midst of these changes, a new approach to learning analytics needs to be considered. Learning analytics refers to the process of collecting and studying usage data in order to make instructional decisions that will support student success. In…

Decision analytic models for Alzheimer's disease: state of the art and future directions.

PubMed

Cohen, Joshua T; Neumann, Peter J

2008-05-01

Decision analytic policy models for Alzheimer's disease (AD) enable researchers and policy makers to investigate questions about the costs and benefits of a wide range of existing and potential screening, testing, and treatment strategies. Such models permit analysts to compare existing alternatives, explore hypothetical scenarios, and test the strength of underlying assumptions in an explicit, quantitative, and systematic way. Decision analytic models can best be viewed as complementing clinical trials both by filling knowledge gaps not readily addressed by empirical research and by extrapolating beyond the surrogate markers recorded in a trial. We identified and critiqued 13 distinct AD decision analytic policy models published since 1997. Although existing models provide useful insights, they also have a variety of limitations. (1) They generally characterize disease progression in terms of cognitive function and do not account for other distinguishing features, such as behavioral symptoms, functional performance, and the emotional well-being of AD patients and caregivers. (2) Many describe disease progression in terms of a limited number of discrete states, thus constraining the level of detail that can be used to characterize both changes in patient status and the relationships between disease progression and other factors, such as residential status, that influence outcomes of interest. (3) They have focused almost exclusively on evaluating drug treatments, thus neglecting other disease management strategies and combinations of pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic interventions. Future AD models should facilitate more realistic and compelling evaluations of various interventions to address the disease. An improved model will allow decision makers to better characterize the disease, to better assess the costs and benefits of a wide range of potential interventions, and to better evaluate the incremental costs and benefits of specific interventions used in conjunction with other disease management strategies.

Exploring Effective Decision Making through Human-Centered and Computational Intelligence Methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Han, Kyungsik; Cook, Kristin A.; Shih, Patrick C.

Decision-making has long been studied to understand a psychological, cognitive, and social process of selecting an effective choice from alternative options. Its studies have been extended from a personal level to a group and collaborative level, and many computer-aided decision-making systems have been developed to help people make right decisions. There has been significant research growth in computational aspects of decision-making systems, yet comparatively little effort has existed in identifying and articulating user needs and requirements in assessing system outputs and the extent to which human judgments could be utilized for making accurate and reliable decisions. Our research focus ismore » decision-making through human-centered and computational intelligence methods in a collaborative environment, and the objectives of this position paper are to bring our research ideas to the workshop, and share and discuss ideas.« less

Zero-block mode decision algorithm for H.264/AVC.

PubMed

Lee, Yu-Ming; Lin, Yinyi

2009-03-01

In the previous paper , we proposed a zero-block intermode decision algorithm for H.264 video coding based upon the number of zero-blocks of 4 x 4 DCT coefficients between the current macroblock and the co-located macroblock. The proposed algorithm can achieve significant improvement in computation, but the computation performance is limited for high bit-rate coding. To improve computation efficiency, in this paper, we suggest an enhanced zero-block decision algorithm, which uses an early zero-block detection method to compute the number of zero-blocks instead of direct DCT and quantization (DCT/Q) calculation and incorporates two adequate decision methods into semi-stationary and nonstationary regions of a video sequence. In addition, the zero-block decision algorithm is also applied to the intramode prediction in the P frame. The enhanced zero-block decision algorithm brings out a reduction of average 27% of total encoding time compared to the zero-block decision algorithm.

Enabling Analytics on Sensitive Medical Data with Secure Multi-Party Computation.

PubMed

Veeningen, Meilof; Chatterjea, Supriyo; Horváth, Anna Zsófia; Spindler, Gerald; Boersma, Eric; van der Spek, Peter; van der Galiën, Onno; Gutteling, Job; Kraaij, Wessel; Veugen, Thijs

2018-01-01

While there is a clear need to apply data analytics in the healthcare sector, this is often difficult because it requires combining sensitive data from multiple data sources. In this paper, we show how the cryptographic technique of secure multi-party computation can enable such data analytics by performing analytics without the need to share the underlying data. We discuss the issue of compliance to European privacy legislation; report on three pilots bringing these techniques closer to practice; and discuss the main challenges ahead to make fully privacy-preserving data analytics in the medical sector commonplace.

Optimal and Nonoptimal Computer-Based Test Designs for Making Pass-Fail Decisions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hambleton, Ronald K.; Xing, Dehui

2006-01-01

Now that many credentialing exams are being routinely administered by computer, new computer-based test designs, along with item response theory models, are being aggressively researched to identify specific designs that can increase the decision consistency and accuracy of pass-fail decisions. The purpose of this study was to investigate the…

Adaptive Allocation of Decision Making Responsibility Between Human and Computer in Multi-Task Situations. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chu, Y. Y.

1978-01-01

A unified formulation of computer-aided, multi-task, decision making is presented. Strategy for the allocation of decision making responsibility between human and computer is developed. The plans of a flight management systems are studied. A model based on the queueing theory was implemented.

Analytic Procedures For Designing and Evaluating Decision Aids.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-04-01

the taxonomy of decision charateristics . Chapter 5 applies the taxonomies to the information processing functions needed for AAW decisions, and...rationality emphasizes the extent to which organizations and other social institutions consist of individuals who pursue individual objectives by means of...adaptive rationality is always wrong or naive; most of us know persons that seem to be naturally good decision-makers. There is no logic that guarantees

Approach of Decision Making Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process for Urban Landscape Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srdjevic, Zorica; Lakicevic, Milena; Srdjevic, Bojan

2013-03-01

This paper proposes a two-stage group decision making approach to urban landscape management and planning supported by the analytic hierarchy process. The proposed approach combines an application of the consensus convergence model and the weighted geometric mean method. The application of the proposed approach is shown on a real urban landscape planning problem with a park-forest in Belgrade, Serbia. Decision makers were policy makers, i.e., representatives of several key national and municipal institutions, and experts coming from different scientific fields. As a result, the most suitable management plan from the set of plans is recognized. It includes both native vegetation renewal in degraded areas of park-forest and continued maintenance of its dominant tourism function. Decision makers included in this research consider the approach to be transparent and useful for addressing landscape management tasks. The central idea of this paper can be understood in a broader sense and easily applied to other decision making problems in various scientific fields.

Approach of decision making based on the analytic hierarchy process for urban landscape management.

PubMed

Srdjevic, Zorica; Lakicevic, Milena; Srdjevic, Bojan

2013-03-01

This paper proposes a two-stage group decision making approach to urban landscape management and planning supported by the analytic hierarchy process. The proposed approach combines an application of the consensus convergence model and the weighted geometric mean method. The application of the proposed approach is shown on a real urban landscape planning problem with a park-forest in Belgrade, Serbia. Decision makers were policy makers, i.e., representatives of several key national and municipal institutions, and experts coming from different scientific fields. As a result, the most suitable management plan from the set of plans is recognized. It includes both native vegetation renewal in degraded areas of park-forest and continued maintenance of its dominant tourism function. Decision makers included in this research consider the approach to be transparent and useful for addressing landscape management tasks. The central idea of this paper can be understood in a broader sense and easily applied to other decision making problems in various scientific fields.

The influence of discrete emotions on judgement and decision-making: a meta-analytic review.

PubMed

Angie, Amanda D; Connelly, Shane; Waples, Ethan P; Kligyte, Vykinta

2011-12-01

During the past three decades, researchers interested in emotions and cognition have attempted to understand the relationship that affect and emotions have with cognitive outcomes such as judgement and decision-making. Recent research has revealed the importance of examining more discrete emotions, showing that same-valence emotions (e.g., anger and fear) differentially impact judgement and decision-making outcomes. Narrative reviews of the literature (Lerner & Tiedens, 2006 ; Pham, 2007 ) have identified some under-researched topics, but provide a limited synthesis of findings. The purpose of this study was to review the research examining the influence of discrete emotions on judgement and decision-making outcomes and provide an assessment of the observed effects using a meta-analytic approach. Results, overall, show that discrete emotions have moderate to large effects on judgement and decision-making outcomes. However, moderator analyses revealed differential effects for study-design characteristics and emotion-manipulation characteristics by emotion type. Implications are discussed.

Sustainable energy planning decision using the intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process: choosing energy technology in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdullah, Lazim; Najib, Liana

2016-04-01

Energy consumption for developing countries is sharply increasing due to the higher economic growth due to industrialisation along with population growth and urbanisation. The increasing demand of energy leads to global energy crisis. Selecting the best energy technology and conservation requires both quantitative and qualitative evaluation criteria. The fuzzy set-based approach is one of the well-known theories to handle fuzziness, uncertainty in decision-making and vagueness of information. This paper proposes a new method of intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (IF-AHP) to deal with the uncertainty in decision-making. The new IF-AHP is applied to establish a preference in the sustainable energy planning decision-making problem. Three decision-makers attached with Malaysian government agencies were interviewed to provide linguistic judgement prior to analysing with the new IF-AHP. Nuclear energy has been decided as the best alternative in energy planning which provides the highest weight among all the seven alternatives.

Decision-making under risk conditions is susceptible to interference by a secondary executive task.

PubMed

Starcke, Katrin; Pawlikowski, Mirko; Wolf, Oliver T; Altstötter-Gleich, Christine; Brand, Matthias

2011-05-01

Recent research suggests two ways of making decisions: an intuitive and an analytical one. The current study examines whether a secondary executive task interferes with advantageous decision-making in the Game of Dice Task (GDT), a decision-making task with explicit and stable rules that taps executive functioning. One group of participants performed the original GDT solely, two groups performed either the GDT and a 1-back or a 2-back working memory task as a secondary task simultaneously. Results show that the group which performed the GDT and the secondary task with high executive load (2-back) decided less advantageously than the group which did not perform a secondary executive task. These findings give further evidence for the view that decision-making under risky conditions taps into the rational-analytical system which acts in a serial and not parallel way as performance on the GDT is disturbed by a parallel task that also requires executive resources.

Linking climate change and fish conservation efforts using spatially explicit decision support tools

Treesearch

Douglas P. Peterson; Seth J. Wenger; Bruce E. Rieman; Daniel J. Isaak

2013-01-01

Fisheries professionals are increasingly tasked with incorporating climate change projections into their decisions. Here we demonstrate how a structured decision framework, coupled with analytical tools and spatial data sets, can help integrate climate and biological information to evaluate management alternatives. We present examples that link downscaled climate...

The science of visual analysis at extreme scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowell, Lucy T.

2011-01-01

Driven by market forces and spanning the full spectrum of computational devices, computer architectures are changing in ways that present tremendous opportunities and challenges for data analysis and visual analytic technologies. Leadership-class high performance computing system will have as many as a million cores by 2020 and support 10 billion-way concurrency, while laptop computers are expected to have as many as 1,000 cores by 2015. At the same time, data of all types are increasing exponentially and automated analytic methods are essential for all disciplines. Many existing analytic technologies do not scale to make full use of current platforms and fewer still are likely to scale to the systems that will be operational by the end of this decade. Furthermore, on the new architectures and for data at extreme scales, validating the accuracy and effectiveness of analytic methods, including visual analysis, will be increasingly important.

Outlook Bright for Computers in Chemistry.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baum, Rudy M.

1981-01-01

Discusses the recent decision to close down the National Resource for Computation in Chemistry (NRCC), implications of that decision, and various alternatives in the field of computational chemistry. (CS)

OceanXtremes: Scalable Anomaly Detection in Oceanographic Time-Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, B. D.; Armstrong, E. M.; Chin, T. M.; Gill, K. M.; Greguska, F. R., III; Huang, T.; Jacob, J. C.; Quach, N.

2016-12-01

The oceanographic community must meet the challenge to rapidly identify features and anomalies in complex and voluminous observations to further science and improve decision support. Given this data-intensive reality, we are developing an anomaly detection system, called OceanXtremes, powered by an intelligent, elastic Cloud-based analytic service backend that enables execution of domain-specific, multi-scale anomaly and feature detection algorithms across the entire archive of 15 to 30-year ocean science datasets.Our parallel analytics engine is extending the NEXUS system and exploits multiple open-source technologies: Apache Cassandra as a distributed spatial "tile" cache, Apache Spark for in-memory parallel computation, and Apache Solr for spatial search and storing pre-computed tile statistics and other metadata. OceanXtremes provides these key capabilities: Parallel generation (Spark on a compute cluster) of 15 to 30-year Ocean Climatologies (e.g. sea surface temperature or SST) in hours or overnight, using simple pixel averages or customizable Gaussian-weighted "smoothing" over latitude, longitude, and time; Parallel pre-computation, tiling, and caching of anomaly fields (daily variables minus a chosen climatology) with pre-computed tile statistics; Parallel detection (over the time-series of tiles) of anomalies or phenomena by regional area-averages exceeding a specified threshold (e.g. high SST in El Nino or SST "blob" regions), or more complex, custom data mining algorithms; Shared discovery and exploration of ocean phenomena and anomalies (facet search using Solr), along with unexpected correlations between key measured variables; Scalable execution for all capabilities on a hybrid Cloud, using our on-premise OpenStack Cloud cluster or at Amazon. The key idea is that the parallel data-mining operations will be run "near" the ocean data archives (a local "network" hop) so that we can efficiently access the thousands of files making up a three decade time-series. The presentation will cover the architecture of OceanXtremes, parallelization of the climatology computation and anomaly detection algorithms using Spark, example results for SST and other time-series, and parallel performance metrics.

Features of Computer-Based Decision Aids: Systematic Review, Thematic Synthesis, and Meta-Analyses

PubMed Central

Krömker, Dörthe; Meguerditchian, Ari N; Tamblyn, Robyn

2016-01-01

Background Patient information and education, such as decision aids, are gradually moving toward online, computer-based environments. Considerable research has been conducted to guide content and presentation of decision aids. However, given the relatively new shift to computer-based support, little attention has been given to how multimedia and interactivity can improve upon paper-based decision aids. Objective The first objective of this review was to summarize published literature into a proposed classification of features that have been integrated into computer-based decision aids. Building on this classification, the second objective was to assess whether integration of specific features was associated with higher-quality decision making. Methods Relevant studies were located by searching MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, and CENTRAL databases. The review identified studies that evaluated computer-based decision aids for adults faced with preference-sensitive medical decisions and reported quality of decision-making outcomes. A thematic synthesis was conducted to develop the classification of features. Subsequently, meta-analyses were conducted based on standardized mean differences (SMD) from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that reported knowledge or decisional conflict. Further subgroup analyses compared pooled SMDs for decision aids that incorporated a specific feature to other computer-based decision aids that did not incorporate the feature, to assess whether specific features improved quality of decision making. Results Of 3541 unique publications, 58 studies met the target criteria and were included in the thematic synthesis. The synthesis identified six features: content control, tailoring, patient narratives, explicit values clarification, feedback, and social support. A subset of 26 RCTs from the thematic synthesis was used to conduct the meta-analyses. As expected, computer-based decision aids performed better than usual care or alternative aids; however, some features performed better than others. Integration of content control improved quality of decision making (SMD 0.59 vs 0.23 for knowledge; SMD 0.39 vs 0.29 for decisional conflict). In contrast, tailoring reduced quality of decision making (SMD 0.40 vs 0.71 for knowledge; SMD 0.25 vs 0.52 for decisional conflict). Similarly, patient narratives also reduced quality of decision making (SMD 0.43 vs 0.65 for knowledge; SMD 0.17 vs 0.46 for decisional conflict). Results were varied for different types of explicit values clarification, feedback, and social support. Conclusions Integration of media rich or interactive features into computer-based decision aids can improve quality of preference-sensitive decision making. However, this is an emerging field with limited evidence to guide use. The systematic review and thematic synthesis identified features that have been integrated into available computer-based decision aids, in an effort to facilitate reporting of these features and to promote integration of such features into decision aids. The meta-analyses and associated subgroup analyses provide preliminary evidence to support integration of specific features into future decision aids. Further research can focus on clarifying independent contributions of specific features through experimental designs and refining the designs of features to improve effectiveness. PMID:26813512

Determination of a Testing Threshold for Lumbar Puncture in the Diagnosis of Subarachnoid Hemorrhage after a Negative Head Computed Tomography: A Decision Analysis.

PubMed

Taylor, Richard Andrew; Singh Gill, Harman; Marcolini, Evie G; Meyers, H Pendell; Faust, Jeremy Samuel; Newman, David H

2016-10-01

The objective was to determine the testing threshold for lumbar puncture (LP) in the evaluation of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) after a negative head computed tomography (CT). As a secondary aim we sought to identify clinical variables that have the greatest impact on this threshold. A decision analytic model was developed to estimate the testing threshold for patients with normal neurologic findings, being evaluated for SAH, after a negative CT of the head. The testing threshold was calculated as the pretest probability of disease where the two strategies (LP or no LP) are balanced in terms of quality-adjusted life-years. Two-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSAs) were performed. For the base-case scenario the testing threshold for performing an LP after negative head CT was 4.3%. Results for the two-way sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the test threshold ranged from 1.9% to 15.6%, dominated by the uncertainty in the probability of death from initial missed SAH. In the PSA the mean testing threshold was 4.3% (95% confidence interval = 1.4% to 9.3%). Other significant variables in the model included probability of aneurysmal versus nonaneurysmal SAH after negative head CT, probability of long-term morbidity from initial missed SAH, and probability of renal failure from contrast-induced nephropathy. Our decision analysis results suggest a testing threshold for LP after negative CT to be approximately 4.3%, with a range of 1.4% to 9.3% on robust PSA. In light of these data, and considering the low probability of aneurysmal SAH after a negative CT, classical teaching and current guidelines addressing testing for SAH should be revisited. © 2016 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

A decision support system using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) for the optimal environmental reclamation of an open-pit mine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bascetin, A.

2007-04-01

The selection of an optimal reclamation method is one of the most important factors in open-pit design and production planning. It also affects economic considerations in open-pit design as a function of plan location and depth. Furthermore, the selection is a complex multi-person, multi-criteria decision problem. The group decision-making process can be improved by applying a systematic and logical approach to assess the priorities based on the inputs of several specialists from different functional areas within the mine company. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) can be very useful in involving several decision makers with different conflicting objectives to arrive at a consensus decision. In this paper, the selection of an optimal reclamation method using an AHP-based model was evaluated for coal production in an open-pit coal mine located at Seyitomer region in Turkey. The use of the proposed model indicates that it can be applied to improve the group decision making in selecting a reclamation method that satisfies optimal specifications. Also, it is found that the decision process is systematic and using the proposed model can reduce the time taken to select a optimal method.

Evaluative methodology for prioritizing transportation energy conservation strategies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pang, L.M.G.

An analytical methodology was developed for the purpose of prioritizing a set of transportation energy conservation (TEC) strategies within an urban environment. Steps involved in applying the methodology consist of 1) defining the goals, objectives and constraints of the given urban community, 2) identifying potential TEC strategies, 3) assessing the impact of the strategies, 4) applying the TEC evaluation model, and 5) utilizing a selection process to determine the optimal set of strategies for implementation. This research provides an overview of 21 TEC strategies, a quick-response technique for estimating energy savings, a multiattribute utility theory approach for assessing subjective impacts,more » and a computer program for making the strategy evaluations, all of which assist in expediting the execution of the entire methodology procedure. The critical element of the methodology is the strategy evaluation model which incorporates a number of desirable concepts including 1) a comprehensive accounting of all relevant impacts, 2) the application of multiobjective decision-making techniques, 3) an approach to assure compatibilty among quantitative and qualitative impact measures, 4) the inclusion of the decision maker's preferences in the evaluation procedure, and 5) the cost-effectiveness concept. Application of the methodolgy to Salt Lake City, Utah demonstrated its utility, ease of use and favorability by decision makers.« less

The Role of Scientific Studies in Building Consensus in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We present a new approach for characterizing the potential of scientific studies to reduce conflict among stakeholders in an analytic-deliberative environmental decision-making process. The approach computes a normalized metric, the Expected Consensus Index of New Research (ECINR), for identifying where additional scientific research will best support improved decisions and resolve possible conflicts over preferred management actions. The ECINR reflects the expected change in agreement among parties over preferred management actions with the implementation and consideration of new scientific studies. We demonstrate the ECINR method based on a preliminary application to coral reef protection and restoration in the Gua´nica Bay Watershed, Puerto Rico, focusing on assessing and managing anthropogenic stressors, including sedimentation and pollution from landbased sources such as sewage, agriculture, and development. Structured elicitations of values and beliefs conducted at a coral reef decision support workshop held at La Parguera, Puerto Rico, are used to develop information for illustrating the methodology. The ECINR analysis was focused on a final study group of seven stakeholders, consisting of resource managers and scientists, who were not in agreement on the efficacy and respective benefits of reducing loadings from three sources: sewage, agriculture, and development. The scenario assumed that loadings would be reduced incrementally from each source through

MANAGING UNCERTAINTY IN ENVIRONMENTAL DECISIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Many environmental decision makers and practitioners worldwide assume that the quality of data pertaining to a contaminated site is primarily determined by the nature of thhe analytical chemistry methods used to collect information. This assumption, which diminishes the importan...

Health versus money. Value judgments in the perspective of decision analysis.

PubMed

Thompson, M S

1983-01-01

An important, but largely uninvestigated, value trade-off balances marginal nonhealth consumption against marginal medical care. Benefit-cost analysts have traditionally, if not fully satisfactorily, dealt with this issue by valuing health gains by their effects on productivity. Cost-effectiveness analysts compare monetary and health effects and leave their relative valuations to decision makers. A decision-analytic model using the satisfaction or utility gained from nonhealth consumption and the level of health enables one to calculate willingness to pay--a theoretically superior way of assigning monetary values to effects for benefit-cost analysis-and to determine minimally acceptable cost-effectiveness ratios. Examples show how a decision-analytic model of utility can differentiate medical actions so essential that failure to take them would be considered negligent from actions so expensive as to be unjustifiable, and can help to determine optimal legal arrangements for compensation for medical malpractice.

The Evolution of Big Data and Learning Analytics in American Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Picciano, Anthony G.

2012-01-01

Data-driven decision making, popularized in the 1980s and 1990s, is evolving into a vastly more sophisticated concept known as big data that relies on software approaches generally referred to as analytics. Big data and analytics for instructional applications are in their infancy and will take a few years to mature, although their presence is…

Capacity Enablers and Barriers for Learning Analytics: Implications for Policy and Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wolf, Mary Ann; Jones, Rachel; Hall, Sara; Wise, Bob

2014-01-01

The field of learning analytics is being discussed in many circles as an emerging concept in education. In many districts and states, the core philosophy behind learning analytics is not entirely new; for more than a decade, discussions of data-driven decision making and the use of data to drive instruction have been common. Still, the U.S.…

Effectiveness of an Electronic Performance Support System on Computer Ethics and Ethical Decision-Making Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kert, Serhat Bahadir; Uz, Cigdem; Gecu, Zeynep

2014-01-01

This study examined the effectiveness of an electronic performance support system (EPSS) on computer ethics education and the ethical decision-making processes. There were five different phases to this ten month study: (1) Writing computer ethics scenarios, (2) Designing a decision-making framework (3) Developing EPSS software (4) Using EPSS in a…

Relative humidity from psychrometric data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putnam, T. W.

1976-01-01

Analytical equation for computing relative humidity as function of wet bulb temperature, dry bulb temperature, and atmospheric pressure is suitable for use with calculator or computer. Analytical expressions may be useful for chemical process control systems and building environmental control systems.

The effect of introspection on judgment and decision making is dependent on the quality of conscious thinking.

PubMed

Leisti, Tuomas; Häkkinen, Jukka

2016-05-01

That introspection may impair certain judgments and result in fabrication has been attributed to a distracting shift from more adaptive intuitive processing to more analytic and conscious processing. This phenomenon was studied in an experiment where participants made multidimensional visual choices. It was found that the effect of this shift on decision-making performance was dependent on the quality of the explanations during introspection, while the performance in silent conditions was not. Therefore, it appears that the effect of introspection on judgments is not only influenced by the thinking mode per se, but also by the individual's ability to approach the decision problem analytically. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimating the Expected Value of Sample Information Using the Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis Sample

PubMed Central

Oakley, Jeremy E.; Brennan, Alan; Breeze, Penny

2015-01-01

Health economic decision-analytic models are used to estimate the expected net benefits of competing decision options. The true values of the input parameters of such models are rarely known with certainty, and it is often useful to quantify the value to the decision maker of reducing uncertainty through collecting new data. In the context of a particular decision problem, the value of a proposed research design can be quantified by its expected value of sample information (EVSI). EVSI is commonly estimated via a 2-level Monte Carlo procedure in which plausible data sets are generated in an outer loop, and then, conditional on these, the parameters of the decision model are updated via Bayes rule and sampled in an inner loop. At each iteration of the inner loop, the decision model is evaluated. This is computationally demanding and may be difficult if the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditional on sampled data is hard to sample from. We describe a fast nonparametric regression-based method for estimating per-patient EVSI that requires only the probabilistic sensitivity analysis sample (i.e., the set of samples drawn from the joint distribution of the parameters and the corresponding net benefits). The method avoids the need to sample from the posterior distributions of the parameters and avoids the need to rerun the model. The only requirement is that sample data sets can be generated. The method is applicable with a model of any complexity and with any specification of model parameter distribution. We demonstrate in a case study the superior efficiency of the regression method over the 2-level Monte Carlo method. PMID:25810269

LABORATORY MISCONDUCT - WHAT CAN HAPPEN TO YOU?

EPA Science Inventory

Contracted laboratories perform a vast number of routine and special analytical services that are the foundation of decisions upon which rests the fate of the environment. Guiding these laboratories in the generation of environmental data has been the analytical protocols and ...

Structuring modeling and simulation analysis for evacuation planning and operations.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-06-01

This document is intended to provide guidance to decision-makers at agencies and jurisdictions considering the role of analytical tools in evacuation planning and operations. It is often unclear what kind of analytical approach may be of most value, ...

Analytical Computation of Energy-Energy Correlation at Next-to-Leading Order in QCD [The Energy-Energy Correlation at Next-to-Leading Order in QCD, Analytically

DOE PAGES

Dixon, Lance J.; Luo, Ming-xing; Shtabovenko, Vladyslav; ...

2018-03-09

Here, the energy-energy correlation (EEC) between two detectors in e +e – annihilation was computed analytically at leading order in QCD almost 40 years ago, and numerically at next-to-leading order (NLO) starting in the 1980s. We present the first analytical result for the EEC at NLO, which is remarkably simple, and facilitates analytical study of the perturbative structure of the EEC. We provide the expansion of the EEC in the collinear and back-to-back regions through next-to-leading power, information which should aid resummation in these regions.

Analytical Computation of Energy-Energy Correlation at Next-to-Leading Order in QCD [The Energy-Energy Correlation at Next-to-Leading Order in QCD, Analytically

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dixon, Lance J.; Luo, Ming-xing; Shtabovenko, Vladyslav

Here, the energy-energy correlation (EEC) between two detectors in e +e – annihilation was computed analytically at leading order in QCD almost 40 years ago, and numerically at next-to-leading order (NLO) starting in the 1980s. We present the first analytical result for the EEC at NLO, which is remarkably simple, and facilitates analytical study of the perturbative structure of the EEC. We provide the expansion of the EEC in the collinear and back-to-back regions through next-to-leading power, information which should aid resummation in these regions.

Challenges to Applying a Metamodel for Groundwater Flow Beyond Underlying Numerical Model Boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reeves, H. W.; Fienen, M. N.; Feinstein, D.

2015-12-01

Metamodels of environmental behavior offer opportunities for decision support, adaptive management, and increased stakeholder engagement through participatory modeling and model exploration. Metamodels are derived from calibrated, computationally demanding, numerical models. They may potentially be applied to non-modeled areas to provide screening or preliminary analysis tools for areas that do not yet have the benefit of more comprehensive study. In this decision-support mode, they may be fulfilling a role often accomplished by application of analytical solutions. The major challenge to transferring a metamodel to a non-modeled area is how to quantify the spatial data in the new area of interest in such a way that it is consistent with the data used to derive the metamodel. Tests based on transferring a metamodel derived from a numerical groundwater-flow model of the Lake Michigan Basin to other glacial settings across the northern U.S. show that the spatial scale of the numerical model must be appropriately scaled to adequately represent different settings. Careful GIS analysis of the numerical model, metamodel, and new area of interest is required for successful transfer of results.

A novel hybrid MCDM model for performance evaluation of research and technology organizations based on BSC approach.

PubMed

Varmazyar, Mohsen; Dehghanbaghi, Maryam; Afkhami, Mehdi

2016-10-01

Balanced Scorecard (BSC) is a strategic evaluation tool using both financial and non-financial indicators to determine the business performance of organizations or companies. In this paper, a new integrated approach based on the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) and multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods are proposed to evaluate the performance of research centers of research and technology organization (RTO) in Iran. Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) are employed to reflect the interdependencies among BSC perspectives. Then, Analytic Network Process (ANP) is utilized to weight the indices influencing the considered problem. In the next step, we apply four MCDM methods including Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS), Complex Proportional Assessment (COPRAS), Multi-Objective Optimization by Ratio Analysis (MOORA), and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) for ranking of alternatives. Finally, the utility interval technique is applied to combine the ranking results of MCDM methods. Weighted utility intervals are computed by constructing a correlation matrix between the ranking methods. A real case is presented to show the efficacy of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fuzzy logic based robotic controller

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Attia, F.; Upadhyaya, M.

1994-01-01

Existing Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) robotic controllers rely on an inverse kinematic model to convert user-specified cartesian trajectory coordinates to joint variables. These joints experience friction, stiction, and gear backlash effects. Due to lack of proper linearization of these effects, modern control theory based on state space methods cannot provide adequate control for robotic systems. In the presence of loads, the dynamic behavior of robotic systems is complex and nonlinear, especially where mathematical modeling is evaluated for real-time operators. Fuzzy Logic Control is a fast emerging alternative to conventional control systems in situations where it may not be feasible to formulate an analytical model of the complex system. Fuzzy logic techniques track a user-defined trajectory without having the host computer to explicitly solve the nonlinear inverse kinematic equations. The goal is to provide a rule-based approach, which is closer to human reasoning. The approach used expresses end-point error, location of manipulator joints, and proximity to obstacles as fuzzy variables. The resulting decisions are based upon linguistic and non-numerical information. This paper presents a solution to the conventional robot controller which is independent of computationally intensive kinematic equations. Computer simulation results of this approach as obtained from software implementation are also discussed.

A Hierarchical Analysis of Bridge Decision Makers ... The Role of New Technology Adoption in the Timber Bridge Market: Special Project

Treesearch

Robert L. Smith; Robert J. Bush; Daniel L. Schmoldt

1995-01-01

Bridge design engineers and local highway officials make bridge replacement decisions across the United States. The Analytical Hierarchy Process was used to characterize the bridge material selection decision of these individuals. State Department of Transportation engineers, private consulting engineers, and local highway officials were personally interviewed in...

When Should I Trust My Gut? Linking Domain Expertise to Intuitive Decision-Making Effectiveness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dane, Erik; Rockmann, Kevin W.; Pratt, Michael G.

2012-01-01

Despite a growing body of scholarship on the concept of intuition, there is a scarcity of empirical research spotlighting the circumstances in which intuitive decision making is effective relative to analytical decision making. Seeking to address this deficiency, we conducted two laboratory studies assessing the link between domain expertise (low…

Student Attitudes toward Learning Analytics in Higher Education: “The Fitbit Version of the Learning World”

PubMed Central

Roberts, Lynne D.; Howell, Joel A.; Seaman, Kristen; Gibson, David C.

2016-01-01

Increasingly, higher education institutions are exploring the potential of learning analytics to predict student retention, understand learning behaviors, and improve student learning through providing personalized feedback and support. The technical development of learning analytics has outpaced consideration of ethical issues surrounding their use. Of particular concern is the absence of the student voice in decision-making about learning analytics. We explored higher education students' knowledge, attitudes, and concerns about big data and learning analytics through four focus groups (N = 41). Thematic analysis of the focus group transcripts identified six key themes. The first theme, “Uninformed and Uncertain,” represents students' lack of knowledge about learning analytics prior to the focus groups. Following the provision of information, viewing of videos and discussion of learning analytics scenarios three further themes; “Help or Hindrance to Learning,” “More than a Number,” and “Impeding Independence”; represented students' perceptions of the likely impact of learning analytics on their learning. “Driving Inequality” and “Where Will it Stop?” represent ethical concerns raised by the students about the potential for inequity, bias and invasion of privacy and the need for informed consent. A key tension to emerge was how “personal” vs. “collective” purposes or principles can intersect with “uniform” vs. “autonomous” activity. The findings highlight the need the need to engage students in the decision making process about learning analytics. PMID:28066285

Factors Influencing the Adoption of Cloud Computing by Decision Making Managers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ross, Virginia Watson

2010-01-01

Cloud computing is a growing field, addressing the market need for access to computing resources to meet organizational computing requirements. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the factors that influence an organization in their decision whether to adopt cloud computing as a part of their strategic information technology planning.…

Structural response of bead-stiffened thermoplastic shear webs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rouse, Marshall

1991-01-01

The results of an experimental and analytical study of the structural response and failure characteristics of selected bead-stiffened thermoplastic shear-webs are presented. Results are given for specimens with one stiffeneer, with two stiffeners, and different stiffener geometries. Selected analytical results that were obtained with the Computational Structural Mechanics (CSM) Testbed computer code are presented. Analytical results that describe normal and transverse shear stress are also presented.

Optimization of monitoring networks based on uncertainty quantification of model predictions of contaminant transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vesselinov, V. V.; Harp, D.

2010-12-01

The process of decision making to protect groundwater resources requires a detailed estimation of uncertainties in model predictions. Various uncertainties associated with modeling a natural system, such as: (1) measurement and computational errors; (2) uncertainties in the conceptual model and model-parameter estimates; (3) simplifications in model setup and numerical representation of governing processes, contribute to the uncertainties in the model predictions. Due to this combination of factors, the sources of predictive uncertainties are generally difficult to quantify individually. Decision support related to optimal design of monitoring networks requires (1) detailed analyses of existing uncertainties related to model predictions of groundwater flow and contaminant transport, (2) optimization of the proposed monitoring network locations in terms of their efficiency to detect contaminants and provide early warning. We apply existing and newly-proposed methods to quantify predictive uncertainties and to optimize well locations. An important aspect of the analysis is the application of newly-developed optimization technique based on coupling of Particle Swarm and Levenberg-Marquardt optimization methods which proved to be robust and computationally efficient. These techniques and algorithms are bundled in a software package called MADS. MADS (Model Analyses for Decision Support) is an object-oriented code that is capable of performing various types of model analyses and supporting model-based decision making. The code can be executed under different computational modes, which include (1) sensitivity analyses (global and local), (2) Monte Carlo analysis, (3) model calibration, (4) parameter estimation, (5) uncertainty quantification, and (6) model selection. The code can be externally coupled with any existing model simulator through integrated modules that read/write input and output files using a set of template and instruction files (consistent with the PEST I/O protocol). MADS can also be internally coupled with a series of built-in analytical simulators. MADS provides functionality to work directly with existing control files developed for the code PEST (Doherty 2009). To perform the computational modes mentioned above, the code utilizes (1) advanced Latin-Hypercube sampling techniques (including Improved Distributed Sampling), (2) various gradient-based Levenberg-Marquardt optimization methods, (3) advanced global optimization methods (including Particle Swarm Optimization), and (4) a selection of alternative objective functions. The code has been successfully applied to perform various model analyses related to environmental management of real contamination sites. Examples include source identification problems, quantification of uncertainty, model calibration, and optimization of monitoring networks. The methodology and software codes are demonstrated using synthetic and real case studies where monitoring networks are optimized taking into account the uncertainty in model predictions of contaminant transport.

Selection of finite-element mesh parameters in modeling the growth of hydraulic fracturing cracks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurguzov, V. D.

2016-12-01

The effect of the mesh geometry on the accuracy of solutions obtained by the finite-element method for problems of linear fracture mechanics is investigated. The guidelines have been formulated for constructing an optimum mesh for several routine problems involving elements with linear and quadratic approximation of displacements. The accuracy of finite-element solutions is estimated based on the degree of the difference between the calculated stress-intensity factor (SIF) and its value obtained analytically. In problems of hydrofracturing of oil-bearing formation, the pump-in pressure of injected water produces a distributed load on crack flanks as opposed to standard fracture mechanics problems that have analytical solutions, where a load is applied to the external boundaries of the computational region and the cracks themselves are kept free from stresses. Some model pressure profiles, as well as pressure profiles taken from real hydrodynamic computations, have been considered. Computer models of cracks with allowance for the pre-stressed state, fracture toughness, and elastic properties of materials are developed in the MSC.Marc 2012 finite-element analysis software. The Irwin force criterion is used as a criterion of brittle fracture and the SIFs are computed using the Cherepanov-Rice invariant J-integral. The process of crack propagation in a linearly elastic isotropic body is described in terms of the elastic energy release rate G and modeled using the VCCT (Virtual Crack Closure Technique) approach. It has been found that the solution accuracy is sensitive to the mesh configuration. Several parameters that are decisive in constructing effective finite-element meshes, namely, the minimum element size, the distance between mesh nodes in the vicinity of a crack tip, and the ratio of the height of an element to its length, have been established. It has been shown that a mesh that consists of only small elements does not improve the accuracy of the solution.

An Investment Behavior Analysis using by Brain Computer Interface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Kyoko; Kinoshita, Kanta; Miyagawa, Kazuhiro; Shiomi, Shinichi; Misawa, Tadanobu; Shimokawa, Tetsuya

In this paper, we will construct a new Brain Computer Interface (BCI), for the purpose of analyzing human's investment decision makings. The BCI is made up of three functional parts which take roles of, measuring brain information, determining market price in an artificial market, and specifying investment decision model, respectively. When subjects make decisions, their brain information is conveyed to the part of specifying investment decision model through the part of measuring brain information, whereas, their decisions of investment order are sent to the part of artificial market to form market prices. Both the support vector machine and the 3 layered perceptron are used to assess the investment decision model. In order to evaluate our BCI, we conduct an experiment in which subjects and a computer trader agent trade shares of stock in the artificial market and test how the computer trader agent can forecast market price formation and investment decision makings from the brain information of subjects. The result of the experiment shows that the brain information can improve the accuracy of forecasts, and so the computer trader agent can supply market liquidity to stabilize market volatility without his loss.

AI based HealthCare Platform for Real Time, Predictive and Prescriptive Analytics using Reactive Programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaur, Jagreet; Singh Mann, Kulwinder, Dr.

2018-01-01

AI in Healthcare needed to bring real, actionable insights and Individualized insights in real time for patients and Doctors to support treatment decisions., We need a Patient Centred Platform for integrating EHR Data, Patient Data, Prescriptions, Monitoring, Clinical research and Data. This paper proposes a generic architecture for enabling AI based healthcare analytics Platform by using open sources Technologies Apache beam, Apache Flink Apache Spark, Apache NiFi, Kafka, Tachyon, Gluster FS, NoSQL- Elasticsearch, Cassandra. This paper will show the importance of applying AI based predictive and prescriptive analytics techniques in Health sector. The system will be able to extract useful knowledge that helps in decision making and medical monitoring in real-time through an intelligent process analysis and big data processing.

Classification and Visualization of Physical and Chemical Properties of Falsified Medicines with Handheld Raman Spectroscopy and X-Ray Computed Tomography.

PubMed

Kakio, Tomoko; Yoshida, Naoko; Macha, Susan; Moriguchi, Kazunobu; Hiroshima, Takashi; Ikeda, Yukihiro; Tsuboi, Hirohito; Kimura, Kazuko

2017-09-01

Analytical methods for the detection of substandard and falsified medical products (SFs) are important for public health and patient safety. Research to understand how the physical and chemical properties of SFs can be most effectively applied to distinguish the SFs from authentic products has not yet been investigated enough. Here, we investigated the usefulness of two analytical methods, handheld Raman spectroscopy (handheld Raman) and X-ray computed tomography (X-ray CT), for detecting SFs among oral solid antihypertensive pharmaceutical products containing candesartan cilexetil as an active pharmaceutical ingredient (API). X-ray CT visualized at least two different types of falsified tablets, one containing many cracks and voids and the other containing aggregates with high electron density, such as from the presence of the heavy elements. Generic products that purported to contain equivalent amounts of API to the authentic products were discriminated from the authentic products by the handheld Raman and the different physical structure on X-ray CT. Approach to investigate both the chemical and physical properties with handheld Raman and X-ray CT, respectively, promise the accurate discrimination of the SFs, even if their visual appearance is similar with authentic products. We present a decision tree for investigating the authenticity of samples purporting to be authentic commercial tablets. Our results indicate that the combination approach of visual observation, handheld Raman and X-ray CT is a powerful strategy for nondestructive discrimination of suspect samples.

Accounting for Uncertainty in Decision Analytic Models Using Rank Preserving Structural Failure Time Modeling: Application to Parametric Survival Models.

PubMed

Bennett, Iain; Paracha, Noman; Abrams, Keith; Ray, Joshua

2018-01-01

Rank Preserving Structural Failure Time models are one of the most commonly used statistical methods to adjust for treatment switching in oncology clinical trials. The method is often applied in a decision analytic model without appropriately accounting for additional uncertainty when determining the allocation of health care resources. The aim of the study is to describe novel approaches to adequately account for uncertainty when using a Rank Preserving Structural Failure Time model in a decision analytic model. Using two examples, we tested and compared the performance of the novel Test-based method with the resampling bootstrap method and with the conventional approach of no adjustment. In the first example, we simulated life expectancy using a simple decision analytic model based on a hypothetical oncology trial with treatment switching. In the second example, we applied the adjustment method on published data when no individual patient data were available. Mean estimates of overall and incremental life expectancy were similar across methods. However, the bootstrapped and test-based estimates consistently produced greater estimates of uncertainty compared with the estimate without any adjustment applied. Similar results were observed when using the test based approach on a published data showing that failing to adjust for uncertainty led to smaller confidence intervals. Both the bootstrapping and test-based approaches provide a solution to appropriately incorporate uncertainty, with the benefit that the latter can implemented by researchers in the absence of individual patient data. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

IDESSA: An Integrative Decision Support System for Sustainable Rangeland Management in Southern African Savannas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Hanna; Authmann, Christian; Dreber, Niels; Hess, Bastian; Kellner, Klaus; Morgenthal, Theunis; Nauss, Thomas; Seeger, Bernhard; Tsvuura, Zivanai; Wiegand, Kerstin

2017-04-01

Bush encroachment is a syndrome of land degradation that occurs in many savannas including those of southern Africa. The increase in density, cover or biomass of woody vegetation often has negative effects on a range of ecosystem functions and services, which are hardly reversible. However, despite its importance, neither the causes of bush encroachment, nor the consequences of different resource management strategies to combat or mitigate related shifts in savanna states are fully understood. The project "IDESSA" (An Integrative Decision Support System for Sustainable Rangeland Management in Southern African Savannas) aims to improve the understanding of the complex interplays between land use, climate patterns and vegetation dynamics and to implement an integrative monitoring and decision-support system for the sustainable management of different savanna types. For this purpose, IDESSA follows an innovative approach that integrates local knowledge, botanical surveys, remote-sensing and machine-learning based time-series of atmospheric and land-cover dynamics, spatially explicit simulation modeling and analytical database management. The integration of the heterogeneous data will be implemented in a user oriented database infrastructure and scientific workflow system. Accessible via web-based interfaces, this database and analysis system will allow scientists to manage and analyze monitoring data and scenario computations, as well as allow stakeholders (e. g. land users, policy makers) to retrieve current ecosystem information and seasonal outlooks. We present the concept of the project and show preliminary results of the realization steps towards the integrative savanna management and decision-support system.

Decision-Oriented Health Technology Assessment: One Step Forward in Supporting the Decision-Making Process in Hospitals.

PubMed

Ritrovato, Matteo; Faggiano, Francesco C; Tedesco, Giorgia; Derrico, Pietro

2015-06-01

This article outlines the Decision-Oriented Health Technology Assessment: a new implementation of the European network for Health Technology Assessment Core Model, integrating the multicriteria decision-making analysis by using the analytic hierarchy process to introduce a standardized methodological approach as a valued and shared tool to support health care decision making within a hospital. Following the Core Model as guidance (European network for Health Technology Assessment. HTA core model for medical and surgical interventions. Available from: http://www.eunethta.eu/outputs/hta-core-model-medical-and-surgical-interventions-10r. [Accessed May 27, 2014]), it is possible to apply the analytic hierarchy process to break down a problem into its constituent parts and identify priorities (i.e., assigning a weight to each part) in a hierarchical structure. Thus, it quantitatively compares the importance of multiple criteria in assessing health technologies and how the alternative technologies perform in satisfying these criteria. The verbal ratings are translated into a quantitative form by using the Saaty scale (Saaty TL. Decision making with the analytic hierarchy process. Int J Serv Sci 2008;1:83-98). An eigenvectors analysis is used for deriving the weights' systems (i.e., local and global weights' system) that reflect the importance assigned to the criteria and the priorities related to the performance of the alternative technologies. Compared with the Core Model, this methodological approach supplies a more timely as well as contextualized evidence for a specific technology, making it possible to obtain data that are more relevant and easier to interpret, and therefore more useful for decision makers to make investment choices with greater awareness. We reached the conclusion that although there may be scope for improvement, this implementation is a step forward toward the goal of building a "solid bridge" between the scientific evidence and the final decision maker's choice. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Enabling Big Geoscience Data Analytics with a Cloud-Based, MapReduce-Enabled and Service-Oriented Workflow Framework

PubMed Central

Li, Zhenlong; Yang, Chaowei; Jin, Baoxuan; Yu, Manzhu; Liu, Kai; Sun, Min; Zhan, Matthew

2015-01-01

Geoscience observations and model simulations are generating vast amounts of multi-dimensional data. Effectively analyzing these data are essential for geoscience studies. However, the tasks are challenging for geoscientists because processing the massive amount of data is both computing and data intensive in that data analytics requires complex procedures and multiple tools. To tackle these challenges, a scientific workflow framework is proposed for big geoscience data analytics. In this framework techniques are proposed by leveraging cloud computing, MapReduce, and Service Oriented Architecture (SOA). Specifically, HBase is adopted for storing and managing big geoscience data across distributed computers. MapReduce-based algorithm framework is developed to support parallel processing of geoscience data. And service-oriented workflow architecture is built for supporting on-demand complex data analytics in the cloud environment. A proof-of-concept prototype tests the performance of the framework. Results show that this innovative framework significantly improves the efficiency of big geoscience data analytics by reducing the data processing time as well as simplifying data analytical procedures for geoscientists. PMID:25742012

Enabling big geoscience data analytics with a cloud-based, MapReduce-enabled and service-oriented workflow framework.

PubMed

Li, Zhenlong; Yang, Chaowei; Jin, Baoxuan; Yu, Manzhu; Liu, Kai; Sun, Min; Zhan, Matthew

2015-01-01

Geoscience observations and model simulations are generating vast amounts of multi-dimensional data. Effectively analyzing these data are essential for geoscience studies. However, the tasks are challenging for geoscientists because processing the massive amount of data is both computing and data intensive in that data analytics requires complex procedures and multiple tools. To tackle these challenges, a scientific workflow framework is proposed for big geoscience data analytics. In this framework techniques are proposed by leveraging cloud computing, MapReduce, and Service Oriented Architecture (SOA). Specifically, HBase is adopted for storing and managing big geoscience data across distributed computers. MapReduce-based algorithm framework is developed to support parallel processing of geoscience data. And service-oriented workflow architecture is built for supporting on-demand complex data analytics in the cloud environment. A proof-of-concept prototype tests the performance of the framework. Results show that this innovative framework significantly improves the efficiency of big geoscience data analytics by reducing the data processing time as well as simplifying data analytical procedures for geoscientists.

Use of a decision-analytic model to support the use of a new oral US contrast agent in patients with abdominal pain.

PubMed

Bree, R L; Arnold, R J; Pettit, K G; Kaniecki, D J; O'haeri, C; LaFrance, N D; Toaff, A L

2001-03-01

The authors performed this study to compare the cost and diagnostic abilities of ultrasound (US) performed with and without the use of an oral contrast material recently approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. An interactive decision-analytic model was constructed to compare US performed with and without contrast material (SonoRx; Bracco Diagnostics) for the evaluation of patients with abdominal pain who were suspected of having pancreatic disease. The model considered all resources that might be used to evaluate a patient suspected of having pancreatic disease (eg, US, computed tomography [CT], endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography, fine-needle aspiration biopsy, and open biopsy). The literature and an expert panel were the clinical data sources. Cost estimates were based on Medicare and non-Medicare reimbursements. The primary cost-effectiveness measure was the cost to achieve a diagnosis. SonoRx-enhanced US was less expensive than unenhanced US ($714 vs $808, respectively, with Medicare costs; $1,612 vs $1,878, respectively, with non-Medicare costs) and as effective (0.785 vs 0.782, respectively). SonoRx-enhanced US was more cost-effective than unenhanced US ($909 vs $1,034, respectively, with Medicare costs; $2,052 vs $2,401, respectively, with non-Medicare costs). This relationship was maintained throughout extensive sensitivity analyses. SonoRx-enhanced US is more cost-effective than unenhanced US, primarily because it avoids the need for CT. CT may be avoided owing to the higher probability of obtaining optimal US scans with oral contrast material.

Computational toxicity in 21st century safety sciences (China ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

presentation at the Joint Meeting of Analytical Toxicology and Computational Toxicology Committee (Chinese Society of Toxicology) International Workshop on Advanced Chemical Safety Assessment Technologies on 11 May 2016, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou China presentation at the Joint Meeting of Analytical Toxicology and Computational Toxicology Committee (Chinese Society of Toxicology) International Workshop on Advanced Chemical Safety Assessment Technologies on 11 May 2016, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou China

Pilot testing of SHRP 2 reliability data and analytical products: Florida. [supporting datasets

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-01-01

SHRP 2 initiated the L38 project to pilot test products from five of the programs completed projects. The products support reliability estimation and use based on data analyses, analytical techniques, and decision-making framework. The L38 project...

INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH ANALYTICAL NETWORK PROCESS

EPA Science Inventory

A decision analysis method for integrating environmental indicators was developed. This was a combination of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the Analytic Network Process (ANP). Being able to take into account interdependency among variables, the method was capable of ran...

The approaches for the decision support in case natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vyazilov, Evgeny; Chunyaev, Nikita

2013-04-01

In spite of using highly automated systems of measurement, collecting, storing, handling, prediction and delivery of information on the marine environment, including natural hazards, the amount of damage from natural phenomena increases. Because information on the marine environment delivered to the industrial facilities not effectively used. To such information pays little attention by individual decision-makers and not always perform preventive measures necessary for reduce and prevent damage. Automation of information support will improve the efficiency management of the marine activities. In Russia develops "The Unified system of the information about World ocean" (ESIMO, http://esimo.ru/), that integrates observation, analysis, prognostic and climate data. Necessary to create tools to automatic selection natural disasters through all integrated data; notification decision-makers about arising natural hazards - software agent; provision of information in a compact form for the decision-makers; assessment of possible damage and costs to the preventive measures; providing information on the impacts of environment on economic facilities and recommendations for decision-making; the use of maps, diagrams, tables for reporting. Tools for automatic selection designed for identification of natural phenomena based on the resources ESIMO and corresponding critical values of the indicators environment. The result of this module will be constantly updated database of critical situations of environment for each object or technological process. To operational notify and provide current information about natural hazards proposes using a software agent that is installed on the computer decision-makers, which is activated in case critical situations and provides a minimum of information. In the event of natural disaster software agent should be able to inform decision-makers about this, providing information on the current situation, and the possibility for more and detailed information about natural hazard. Software agent must be able to be configured by the user to a specific object: a specific station or a drilling rigs that region or area, regardless of the size of the object. And depending on the selected settings and parameters it needs to apply the values of critical indexes. There is a need for real-time display hydrometeorological information with compact scheme that reflects the environment indicators that affect industrial facility in the form of devices (thermometer, aneroid, footstock, speedometer, hygrometer, thermograph, barograph, rain gauge, wind vane, etc.) with the ability to display indicators exceed a critical value. This scheme is designed to provide maximum information in the shortest possible time reference that provides an intuitive interface (display by generally accepted standardized instruments). Analytical services ESIMO combined with geographic information service provides information about area or point to decision-makers of showing the dynamics of changes of parameters in the form of graphics, diagrams, maps, tables. If the data sources are updated, analytical services automatically provides the relevance of the data in the analytical views of the complex. Analytical services works with database of integrated data and used for the preparation and presentation of the consumers of the federal and regional level for the analysis of information on the World Oceans. The analytic services show a set of indicators about the situation in the World Ocean. The complex provides the processing, analysis of qualitative and quantitative characteristics (indexes) of the marine environment and maritime activities of the Russian Federation. To assess the need for preventive measures, decision-makers require information in the form of potential economic consequences of natural hazard, cost of preventive measures to prevent damage. We can use for that the economic and mathematical models. When making the decision decision-makers must understand the possible consequences of natural phenomena and rely on the advice that they receive from a decision support system. Such information about the impacts and recommendations are based on the knowledge base (rules of "if, then"), formed on the basis of experience gained in the past. This should take into account not only the critical values for each object and technological process, but also the type of information (observations, forecasting, climate, and after the phenomenon), the level of decision-making, the season of the year, the climate zone where the object is located. Within ESIMO created integrated database that containing the results of the monitoring of the marine environment. The database includes the observation, analysis, and forecasting and climate data. Operational data is updated automatically at specified intervals of a few minutes to a week, depending on the frequency of observations. Climatic data is updated as needed, for example, once a year or once every five years. Integrated database contains a set of indicators related to a specific object, and to a certain geographic area, according to the observations made and the data entered data. In addition to hydrometeorological parameters database contains socio-economic information. At present, was created the database of critical values and information about the impacts of and recommendations for the 30 natural hazards, developed the data structure and software is under development. The interaction of all components of an information support will reduce the economic damage from natural disaster on individual objects economy (ships, ports, etc.) and improve public safety through more prompt delivery of information to decision-makers and the public, besides receive more informative data (district with symptoms natural phenomena , assessment of possible damage, the impact of and recommendations).

10 CFR 431.445 - Determination of small electric motor efficiency.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... statistical analysis, computer simulation or modeling, or other analytic evaluation of performance data. (3... statistical analysis, computer simulation or modeling, and other analytic evaluation of performance data on.... (ii) If requested by the Department, the manufacturer shall conduct simulations to predict the...

Mechanical Properties of Additively Manufactured Thick Honeycombs.

PubMed

Hedayati, Reza; Sadighi, Mojtaba; Mohammadi Aghdam, Mohammad; Zadpoor, Amir Abbas

2016-07-23

Honeycombs resemble the structure of a number of natural and biological materials such as cancellous bone, wood, and cork. Thick honeycomb could be also used for energy absorption applications. Moreover, studying the mechanical behavior of honeycombs under in-plane loading could help understanding the mechanical behavior of more complex 3D tessellated structures such as porous biomaterials. In this paper, we study the mechanical behavior of thick honeycombs made using additive manufacturing techniques that allow for fabrication of honeycombs with arbitrary and precisely controlled thickness. Thick honeycombs with different wall thicknesses were produced from polylactic acid (PLA) using fused deposition modelling, i.e., an additive manufacturing technique. The samples were mechanically tested in-plane under compression to determine their mechanical properties. We also obtained exact analytical solutions for the stiffness matrix of thick hexagonal honeycombs using both Euler-Bernoulli and Timoshenko beam theories. The stiffness matrix was then used to derive analytical relationships that describe the elastic modulus, yield stress, and Poisson's ratio of thick honeycombs. Finite element models were also built for computational analysis of the mechanical behavior of thick honeycombs under compression. The mechanical properties obtained using our analytical relationships were compared with experimental observations and computational results as well as with analytical solutions available in the literature. It was found that the analytical solutions presented here are in good agreement with experimental and computational results even for very thick honeycombs, whereas the analytical solutions available in the literature show a large deviation from experimental observation, computational results, and our analytical solutions.

Computer models for economic and silvicultural decisions

Treesearch

Rosalie J. Ingram

1989-01-01

Computer systems can help simplify decisionmaking to manage forest ecosystems. We now have computer models to help make forest management decisions by predicting changes associated with a particular management action. Models also help you evaluate alternatives. To be effective, the computer models must be reliable and appropriate for your situation.

Common decision limits --The need for harmonised immunoassays.

PubMed

Sturgeon, Catharine M

2014-05-15

The main aim of clinical guidelines is to encourage the best clinical outcome for patients and the best use of resources, no matter where patients are investigated or managed. Where guidelines incorporate decision limits based on levels of analytes in serum, plasma or urine these may determine whether or not to treat or may be used to tailor further treatment. Consideration should be given to the effect of method-related differences in results when implementing common decision limits. Available evidence suggests that for some analytes the implications for the patient may be serious, e.g. in terms of missed biopsies or unnecessary prostatic biopsies when prostate specific antigen is measured. Major causes of between-method differences are reviewed and means of addressing them considered. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Implementing an extension of the analytical hierarchy process using ordered weighted averaging operators with fuzzy quantifiers in ArcGIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boroushaki, Soheil; Malczewski, Jacek

2008-04-01

This paper focuses on the integration of GIS and an extension of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) using quantifier-guided ordered weighted averaging (OWA) procedure. AHP_OWA is a multicriteria combination operator. The nature of the AHP_OWA depends on some parameters, which are expressed by means of fuzzy linguistic quantifiers. By changing the linguistic terms, AHP_OWA can generate a wide range of decision strategies. We propose a GIS-multicriteria evaluation (MCE) system through implementation of AHP_OWA within ArcGIS, capable of integrating linguistic labels within conventional AHP for spatial decision making. We suggest that the proposed GIS-MCE would simplify the definition of decision strategies and facilitate an exploratory analysis of multiple criteria by incorporating qualitative information within the analysis.

The erroneous signals of detection theory.

PubMed

Trimmer, Pete C; Ehlman, Sean M; McNamara, John M; Sih, Andrew

2017-10-25

Signal detection theory has influenced the behavioural sciences for over 50 years. The theory provides a simple equation that indicates numerous 'intuitive' results; e.g. prey should be more prone to take evasive action (in response to an ambiguous cue) if predators are more common. Here, we use analytical and computational models to show that, in numerous biological scenarios, the standard results of signal detection theory do not apply; more predators can result in prey being less responsive to such cues. The standard results need not apply when the probability of danger pertains not just to the present, but also to future decisions. We identify how responses to risk should depend on background mortality and autocorrelation, and that predictions in relation to animal welfare can also be reversed from the standard theory. © 2017 The Author(s).

Measurement and Modelling: Sequential Use of Analytical Techniques in a Study of Risk-Taking in Decision-Making by School Principals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trimmer, Karen

2016-01-01

This paper investigates reasoned risk-taking in decision-making by school principals using a methodology that combines sequential use of psychometric and traditional measurement techniques. Risk-taking is defined as when decisions are made that are not compliant with the regulatory framework, the primary governance mechanism for public schools in…

Energy-Aware Computation Offloading of IoT Sensors in Cloudlet-Based Mobile Edge Computing.

PubMed

Ma, Xiao; Lin, Chuang; Zhang, Han; Liu, Jianwei

2018-06-15

Mobile edge computing is proposed as a promising computing paradigm to relieve the excessive burden of data centers and mobile networks, which is induced by the rapid growth of Internet of Things (IoT). This work introduces the cloud-assisted multi-cloudlet framework to provision scalable services in cloudlet-based mobile edge computing. Due to the constrained computation resources of cloudlets and limited communication resources of wireless access points (APs), IoT sensors with identical computation offloading decisions interact with each other. To optimize the processing delay and energy consumption of computation tasks, theoretic analysis of the computation offloading decision problem of IoT sensors is presented in this paper. In more detail, the computation offloading decision problem of IoT sensors is formulated as a computation offloading game and the condition of Nash equilibrium is derived by introducing the tool of a potential game. By exploiting the finite improvement property of the game, the Computation Offloading Decision (COD) algorithm is designed to provide decentralized computation offloading strategies for IoT sensors. Simulation results demonstrate that the COD algorithm can significantly reduce the system cost compared with the random-selection algorithm and the cloud-first algorithm. Furthermore, the COD algorithm can scale well with increasing IoT sensors.

An initial investigation into methods of computing transonic aerodynamic sensitivity coefficients

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, Leland A.

1991-01-01

The three dimensional quasi-analytical sensitivity analysis and the ancillary driver programs are developed needed to carry out the studies and perform comparisons. The code is essentially contained in one unified package which includes the following: (1) a three dimensional transonic wing analysis program (ZEBRA); (2) a quasi-analytical portion which determines the matrix elements in the quasi-analytical equations; (3) a method for computing the sensitivity coefficients from the resulting quasi-analytical equations; (4) a package to determine for comparison purposes sensitivity coefficients via the finite difference approach; and (5) a graphics package.

Analytical Computation of Energy-Energy Correlation at Next-to-Leading Order in QCD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dixon, Lance J.; Luo, Ming-xing; Shtabovenko, Vladyslav; Yang, Tong-Zhi; Zhu, Hua Xing

2018-03-01

The energy-energy correlation (EEC) between two detectors in e+e- annihilation was computed analytically at leading order in QCD almost 40 years ago, and numerically at next-to-leading order (NLO) starting in the 1980s. We present the first analytical result for the EEC at NLO, which is remarkably simple, and facilitates analytical study of the perturbative structure of the EEC. We provide the expansion of the EEC in the collinear and back-to-back regions through next-to-leading power, information which should aid resummation in these regions.

Analytical effective tensor for flow-through composites

DOEpatents

Sviercoski, Rosangela De Fatima [Los Alamos, NM

2012-06-19

A machine, method and computer-usable medium for modeling an average flow of a substance through a composite material. Such a modeling includes an analytical calculation of an effective tensor K.sup.a suitable for use with a variety of media. The analytical calculation corresponds to an approximation to the tensor K, and follows by first computing the diagonal values, and then identifying symmetries of the heterogeneity distribution. Additional calculations include determining the center of mass of the heterogeneous cell and its angle according to a defined Cartesian system, and utilizing this angle into a rotation formula to compute the off-diagonal values and determining its sign.

Examining the relationship between critical-thinking skills and decision-making ability of emergency medicine students.

PubMed

Heidari, Mohammad; Ebrahimi, Parvin

2016-10-01

Critical-thinking ability would enable students to think creatively and make better decisions and makes them make a greater effort to concentrate on situations related to clinical matters and emergencies. This can bridge the gap between the clinical and theoretical training. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to examine the relationship between critical-thinking ability and decision-making skills of the students of Emergency Medicine. This descriptive and analytical research was conducted on all the students of medical emergency students ( n = 86) in Shahrekord, Iran. The demographic information questionnaire, the California Critical Thinking Skills Test, and a decision-making researcher-made questionnaire were used to collect data. The data were analyzed by SPSS software version 16 using descriptive and analytical statistical tests and Pearson's correlation coefficient. The results of the present study indicate that the total mean score for the critical thinking was 8.32 ± 2.03 and for decision making 8.66 ± 1.89. There is a significant statistical relationship between the critical-thinking score and decision-making score ( P < 0.05). Although critical-thinking skills and decision-making ability are essential for medical emergency professional competence, the results of this study show that these skills are poor among the students.

Neural basis of emotional decision making in trait anxiety.

PubMed

Xu, Pengfei; Gu, Ruolei; Broster, Lucas S; Wu, Runguo; Van Dam, Nicholas T; Jiang, Yang; Fan, Jin; Luo, Yue-jia

2013-11-20

Although trait anxiety has been associated with risk decision making, whether it is related to risk per se or to the feeling of the risk, as well as the underlying neurocognitive mechanisms, remains unclear. Using a decision-making task with a manipulation of frame (i.e., written description of options as a potential gain or loss) and functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated the neurocognitive relationship between trait anxiety and decision making. The classic framing effect was observed: participants chose the safe option when it was described as a potential gain, but they avoided the same option when it was described as a potential loss. Most importantly, trait anxiety was positively correlated with this behavioral bias. Trait anxiety was also positively correlated with amygdala-based "emotional" system activation and its coupling with the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) when decisions were consistent with the framing effect, but negatively correlated with the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC)-based "analytic" system activation and its connectivity to the vmPFC when decisions ran counter to the framing effect. Our findings suggest that trait anxiety is not associated with subjective risk preference but an evaluative bias of emotional information in decision making, underpinned by a hyperactive emotional system and a hypoactive analytic system in the brain.

Examining the relationship between critical-thinking skills and decision-making ability of emergency medicine students

PubMed Central

Heidari, Mohammad; Ebrahimi, Parvin

2016-01-01

Background and Aims: Critical-thinking ability would enable students to think creatively and make better decisions and makes them make a greater effort to concentrate on situations related to clinical matters and emergencies. This can bridge the gap between the clinical and theoretical training. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to examine the relationship between critical-thinking ability and decision-making skills of the students of Emergency Medicine. Materials and Methods: This descriptive and analytical research was conducted on all the students of medical emergency students (n = 86) in Shahrekord, Iran. The demographic information questionnaire, the California Critical Thinking Skills Test, and a decision-making researcher-made questionnaire were used to collect data. The data were analyzed by SPSS software version 16 using descriptive and analytical statistical tests and Pearson's correlation coefficient. Results: The results of the present study indicate that the total mean score for the critical thinking was 8.32 ± 2.03 and for decision making 8.66 ± 1.89. There is a significant statistical relationship between the critical-thinking score and decision-making score (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Although critical-thinking skills and decision-making ability are essential for medical emergency professional competence, the results of this study show that these skills are poor among the students. PMID:27829713

Incorporating uncertainty regarding applicability of evidence from meta-analyses into clinical decision making.

PubMed

Kriston, Levente; Meister, Ramona

2014-03-01

Judging applicability (relevance) of meta-analytical findings to particular clinical decision-making situations remains challenging. We aimed to describe an evidence synthesis method that accounts for possible uncertainty regarding applicability of the evidence. We conceptualized uncertainty regarding applicability of the meta-analytical estimates to a decision-making situation as the result of uncertainty regarding applicability of the findings of the trials that were included in the meta-analysis. This trial-level applicability uncertainty can be directly assessed by the decision maker and allows for the definition of trial inclusion probabilities, which can be used to perform a probabilistic meta-analysis with unequal probability resampling of trials (adaptive meta-analysis). A case study with several fictitious decision-making scenarios was performed to demonstrate the method in practice. We present options to elicit trial inclusion probabilities and perform the calculations. The result of an adaptive meta-analysis is a frequency distribution of the estimated parameters from traditional meta-analysis that provides individually tailored information according to the specific needs and uncertainty of the decision maker. The proposed method offers a direct and formalized combination of research evidence with individual clinical expertise and may aid clinicians in specific decision-making situations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Data visualisation in surveillance for injury prevention and control: conceptual bases and case studies

PubMed Central

Martinez, Ramon; Ordunez, Pedro; Soliz, Patricia N; Ballesteros, Michael F

2016-01-01

Background The complexity of current injury-related health issues demands the usage of diverse and massive data sets for comprehensive analyses, and application of novel methods to communicate data effectively to the public health community, decision-makers and the public. Recent advances in information visualisation, availability of new visual analytic methods and tools, and progress on information technology provide an opportunity for shaping the next generation of injury surveillance. Objective To introduce data visualisation conceptual bases, and propose a visual analytic and visualisation platform in public health surveillance for injury prevention and control. Methods The paper introduces data visualisation conceptual bases, describes a visual analytic and visualisation platform, and presents two real-world case studies illustrating their application in public health surveillance for injury prevention and control. Results Application of visual analytic and visualisation platform is presented as solution for improved access to heterogeneous data sources, enhance data exploration and analysis, communicate data effectively, and support decision-making. Conclusions Applications of data visualisation concepts and visual analytic platform could play a key role to shape the next generation of injury surveillance. Visual analytic and visualisation platform could improve data use, the analytic capacity, and ability to effectively communicate findings and key messages. The public health surveillance community is encouraged to identify opportunities to develop and expand its use in injury prevention and control. PMID:26728006

Computer-aided decision support systems for endoscopy in the gastrointestinal tract: a review.

PubMed

Liedlgruber, Michael; Uhl, Andreas

2011-01-01

Today, medical endoscopy is a widely used procedure to inspect the inner cavities of the human body. The advent of endoscopic imaging techniques-allowing the acquisition of images or videos-created the possibility for the development of the whole new branch of computer-aided decision support systems. Such systems aim at helping physicians to identify possibly malignant abnormalities more accurately. At the beginning of this paper, we give a brief introduction to the history of endoscopy, followed by introducing the main types of endoscopes which emerged so far (flexible endoscope, wireless capsule endoscope, and confocal laser endomicroscope). We then give a brief introduction to computer-aided decision support systems specifically targeted at endoscopy in the gastrointestinal tract. Then we present general facts and figures concerning computer-aided decision support systems and summarize work specifically targeted at computer-aided decision support in the gastrointestinal tract. This summary is followed by a discussion of some common issues concerning the approaches reviewed and suggestions of possible ways to resolve them.

A cost-utility analysis of the use of preoperative computed tomographic angiography in abdomen-based perforator flap breast reconstruction.

PubMed

Offodile, Anaeze C; Chatterjee, Abhishek; Vallejo, Sergio; Fisher, Carla S; Tchou, Julia C; Guo, Lifei

2015-04-01

Computed tomographic angiography is a diagnostic tool increasingly used for preoperative vascular mapping in abdomen-based perforator flap breast reconstruction. This study compared the use of computed tomographic angiography and the conventional practice of Doppler ultrasonography only in postmastectomy reconstruction using a cost-utility model. Following a comprehensive literature review, a decision analytic model was created using the three most clinically relevant health outcomes in free autologous breast reconstruction with computed tomographic angiography versus Doppler ultrasonography only. Cost and utility estimates for each health outcome were used to derive the quality-adjusted life-years and incremental cost-utility ratio. One-way sensitivity analysis was performed to scrutinize the robustness of the authors' results. Six studies and 782 patients were identified. Cost-utility analysis revealed a baseline cost savings of $3179, a gain in quality-adjusted life-years of 0.25. This yielded an incremental cost-utility ratio of -$12,716, implying a dominant choice favoring preoperative computed tomographic angiography. Sensitivity analysis revealed that computed tomographic angiography was costlier when the operative time difference between the two techniques was less than 21.3 minutes. However, the clinical advantage of computed tomographic angiography over Doppler ultrasonography only showed that computed tomographic angiography would still remain the cost-effective option even if it offered no additional operating time advantage. The authors' results show that computed tomographic angiography is a cost-effective technology for identifying lower abdominal perforators for autologous breast reconstruction. Although the perfect study would be a randomized controlled trial of the two approaches with true cost accrual, the authors' results represent the best available evidence.

Grade 8 students' capability of analytical thinking and attitude toward science through teaching and learning about soil and its' pollution based on science technology and society (STS) approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boonprasert, Lapisarin; Tupsai, Jiraporn; Yuenyong, Chokchai

2018-01-01

This study reported Grade 8 students' analytical thinking and attitude toward science in teaching and learning about soil and its' pollution through science technology and society (STS) approach. The participants were 36 Grade 8 students in Naklang, Nongbualumphu, Thailand. The teaching and learning about soil and its' pollution through STS approach had carried out for 6 weeks. The soil and its' pollution unit through STS approach was developed based on framework of Yuenyong (2006) that consisted of five stages including (1) identification of social issues, (2) identification of potential solutions, (3) need for knowledge, (4) decision-making, and (5) socialization stage. Students' analytical thinking and attitude toward science was collected during their learning by participant observation, analytical thinking test, students' tasks, and journal writing. The findings revealed that students could gain their capability of analytical thinking. They could give ideas or behave the characteristics of analytical thinking such as thinking for classifying, compare and contrast, reasoning, interpreting, collecting data and decision making. Students' journal writing reflected that the STS class of soil and its' pollution motivated students. The paper will discuss implications of these for science teaching and learning through STS in Thailand.

SCIENCE MISCONDUCT ACTIVITIES IN ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS - FRAUD DETECTION IN GC/MS/ICP ACTIVITIES

EPA Science Inventory

Contracted laboratories perform a vast number of routine and special analytical services that are the foundation of decisions upon which rests the fate of the environment. Guiding these laboratories in the generation of environmental data has been the analytical protocols and th...

100-N Area Decision Unit Target Analyte List Development for Soil

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ovink, R.

2012-09-18

This report documents the process used to identify source area target analytes in support of the 100-N Area remedial investigation/feasibility study (RI/FS) addendum to the Integrated 100 Area Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study Work Plan (DOE/RL-2008-46, Rev. 0).

Pruning a decision tree for selecting computer-related assistive devices for people with disabilities.

PubMed

Chi, Chia-Fen; Tseng, Li-Kai; Jang, Yuh

2012-07-01

Many disabled individuals lack extensive knowledge about assistive technology, which could help them use computers. In 1997, Denis Anson developed a decision tree of 49 evaluative questions designed to evaluate the functional capabilities of the disabled user and choose an appropriate combination of assistive devices, from a selection of 26, that enable the individual to use a computer. In general, occupational therapists guide the disabled users through this process. They often have to go over repetitive questions in order to find an appropriate device. A disabled user may require an alphanumeric entry device, a pointing device, an output device, a performance enhancement device, or some combination of these. Therefore, the current research eliminates redundant questions and divides Anson's decision tree into multiple independent subtrees to meet the actual demand of computer users with disabilities. The modified decision tree was tested by six disabled users to prove it can determine a complete set of assistive devices with a smaller number of evaluative questions. The means to insert new categories of computer-related assistive devices was included to ensure the decision tree can be expanded and updated. The current decision tree can help the disabled users and assistive technology practitioners to find appropriate computer-related assistive devices that meet with clients' individual needs in an efficient manner.

"Racial bias in mock juror decision-making: A meta-analytic review of defendant treatment": Correction to Mitchell et al. (2005).

PubMed

2017-06-01

Reports an error in "Racial Bias in Mock Juror Decision-Making: A Meta-Analytic Review of Defendant Treatment" by Tara L. Mitchell, Ryann M. Haw, Jeffrey E. Pfeifer and Christian A. Meissner ( Law and Human Behavior , 2005[Dec], Vol 29[6], 621-637). In the article, all of the numbers in Appendix A were correct, but the signs were reversed for z' in a number of studies, which are listed. Also, in Appendix B, some values were incorrect, some signs were reversed, and some values were missing. The corrected appendix is included. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2006-00971-001.) Common wisdom seems to suggest that racial bias, defined as disparate treatment of minority defendants, exists in jury decision-making, with Black defendants being treated more harshly by jurors than White defendants. The empirical research, however, is inconsistent--some studies show racial bias while others do not. Two previous meta-analyses have found conflicting results regarding the existence of racial bias in juror decision-making (Mazzella & Feingold, 1994, Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 24, 1315-1344; Sweeney & Haney, 1992, Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 10, 179-195). This research takes a meta-analytic approach to further investigate the inconsistencies within the empirical literature on racial bias in juror decision-making by defining racial bias as disparate treatment of racial out-groups (rather than focusing upon the minority group alone). Our results suggest that a small, yet significant, effect of racial bias in decision-making is present across studies, but that the effect becomes more pronounced when certain moderators are considered. The state of the research will be discussed in light of these findings. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Progressive Visual Analytics: User-Driven Visual Exploration of In-Progress Analytics.

PubMed

Stolper, Charles D; Perer, Adam; Gotz, David

2014-12-01

As datasets grow and analytic algorithms become more complex, the typical workflow of analysts launching an analytic, waiting for it to complete, inspecting the results, and then re-Iaunching the computation with adjusted parameters is not realistic for many real-world tasks. This paper presents an alternative workflow, progressive visual analytics, which enables an analyst to inspect partial results of an algorithm as they become available and interact with the algorithm to prioritize subspaces of interest. Progressive visual analytics depends on adapting analytical algorithms to produce meaningful partial results and enable analyst intervention without sacrificing computational speed. The paradigm also depends on adapting information visualization techniques to incorporate the constantly refining results without overwhelming analysts and provide interactions to support an analyst directing the analytic. The contributions of this paper include: a description of the progressive visual analytics paradigm; design goals for both the algorithms and visualizations in progressive visual analytics systems; an example progressive visual analytics system (Progressive Insights) for analyzing common patterns in a collection of event sequences; and an evaluation of Progressive Insights and the progressive visual analytics paradigm by clinical researchers analyzing electronic medical records.

Analytical group decision making in natural resources: Methodology and application

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmoldt, D.L.; Peterson, D.L.

2000-01-01

Group decision making is becoming increasingly important in natural resource management and associated scientific applications, because multiple values are treated coincidentally in time and space, multiple resource specialists are needed, and multiple stakeholders must be included in the decision process. Decades of social science research on decision making in groups have provided insights into the impediments to effective group processes and on techniques that can be applied in a group context. Nevertheless, little integration and few applications of these results have occurred in resource management decision processes, where formal groups are integral, either directly or indirectly. A group decision-making methodology is introduced as an effective approach for temporary, formal groups (e.g., workshops). It combines the following three components: (1) brainstorming to generate ideas; (2) the analytic hierarchy process to produce judgments, manage conflict, enable consensus, and plan for implementation; and (3) a discussion template (straw document). Resulting numerical assessments of alternative decision priorities can be analyzed statistically to indicate where group member agreement occurs and where priority values are significantly different. An application of this group process to fire research program development in a workshop setting indicates that the process helps focus group deliberations; mitigates groupthink, nondecision, and social loafing pitfalls; encourages individual interaction; identifies irrational judgments; and provides a large amount of useful quantitative information about group preferences. This approach can help facilitate scientific assessments and other decision-making processes in resource management.

Fracture risk assessment: improved evaluation of vertebral integrity among metastatic cancer patients to aid in surgical decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Augustine, Kurt E.; Camp, Jon J.; Holmes, David R.; Huddleston, Paul M.; Lu, Lichun; Yaszemski, Michael J.; Robb, Richard A.

2012-03-01

Failure of the spine's structural integrity from metastatic disease can lead to both pain and neurologic deficit. Fractures that require treatment occur in over 30% of bony metastases. Our objective is to use computed tomography (CT) in conjunction with analytic techniques that have been previously developed to predict fracture risk in cancer patients with metastatic disease to the spine. Current clinical practice for cancer patients with spine metastasis often requires an empirical decision regarding spinal reconstructive surgery. Early image-based software systems used for CT analysis are time consuming and poorly suited for clinical application. The Biomedical Image Resource (BIR) at Mayo Clinic, Rochester has developed an image analysis computer program that calculates from CT scans, the residual load-bearing capacity in a vertebra with metastatic cancer. The Spine Cancer Assessment (SCA) program is built on a platform designed for clinical practice, with a workflow format that allows for rapid selection of patient CT exams, followed by guided image analysis tasks, resulting in a fracture risk report. The analysis features allow the surgeon to quickly isolate a single vertebra and obtain an immediate pre-surgical multiple parallel section composite beam fracture risk analysis based on algorithms developed at Mayo Clinic. The analysis software is undergoing clinical validation studies. We expect this approach will facilitate patient management and utilization of reliable guidelines for selecting among various treatment option based on fracture risk.

Decision analysis for conservation breeding: Maximizing production for reintroduction of whooping cranes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Des H.V.; Converse, Sarah J.; Gibson, Keith; Moehrenschlager, Axel; Link, William A.; Olsen, Glenn H.; Maguire, Kelly

2011-01-01

Captive breeding is key to management of severely endangered species, but maximizing captive production can be challenging because of poor knowledge of species breeding biology and the complexity of evaluating different management options. In the face of uncertainty and complexity, decision-analytic approaches can be used to identify optimal management options for maximizing captive production. Building decision-analytic models requires iterations of model conception, data analysis, model building and evaluation, identification of remaining uncertainty, further research and monitoring to reduce uncertainty, and integration of new data into the model. We initiated such a process to maximize captive production of the whooping crane (Grus americana), the world's most endangered crane, which is managed through captive breeding and reintroduction. We collected 15 years of captive breeding data from 3 institutions and used Bayesian analysis and model selection to identify predictors of whooping crane hatching success. The strongest predictor, and that with clear management relevance, was incubation environment. The incubation period of whooping crane eggs is split across two environments: crane nests and artificial incubators. Although artificial incubators are useful for allowing breeding pairs to produce multiple clutches, our results indicate that crane incubation is most effective at promoting hatching success. Hatching probability increased the longer an egg spent in a crane nest, from 40% hatching probability for eggs receiving 1 day of crane incubation to 95% for those receiving 30 days (time incubated in each environment varied independently of total incubation period). Because birds will lay fewer eggs when they are incubating longer, a tradeoff exists between the number of clutches produced and egg hatching probability. We developed a decision-analytic model that estimated 16 to be the optimal number of days of crane incubation needed to maximize the number of offspring produced. These results show that using decision-analytic tools to account for uncertainty in captive breeding can improve the rate at which such programs contribute to wildlife reintroductions. 

Estimating the Health Effects of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Strategies: Addressing Parametric, Model, and Valuation Challenges

PubMed Central

Hess, Jeremy J.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Markandya, Anil; Balbus, John M.; Wilkinson, Paul; Haines, Andy; Chalabi, Zaid

2014-01-01

Background: Policy decisions regarding climate change mitigation are increasingly incorporating the beneficial and adverse health impacts of greenhouse gas emission reduction strategies. Studies of such co-benefits and co-harms involve modeling approaches requiring a range of analytic decisions that affect the model output. Objective: Our objective was to assess analytic decisions regarding model framework, structure, choice of parameters, and handling of uncertainty when modeling health co-benefits, and to make recommendations for improvements that could increase policy uptake. Methods: We describe the assumptions and analytic decisions underlying models of mitigation co-benefits, examining their effects on modeling outputs, and consider tools for quantifying uncertainty. Discussion: There is considerable variation in approaches to valuation metrics, discounting methods, uncertainty characterization and propagation, and assessment of low-probability/high-impact events. There is also variable inclusion of adverse impacts of mitigation policies, and limited extension of modeling domains to include implementation considerations. Going forward, co-benefits modeling efforts should be carried out in collaboration with policy makers; these efforts should include the full range of positive and negative impacts and critical uncertainties, as well as a range of discount rates, and should explicitly characterize uncertainty. We make recommendations to improve the rigor and consistency of modeling of health co-benefits. Conclusion: Modeling health co-benefits requires systematic consideration of the suitability of model assumptions, of what should be included and excluded from the model framework, and how uncertainty should be treated. Increased attention to these and other analytic decisions has the potential to increase the policy relevance and application of co-benefits modeling studies, potentially helping policy makers to maximize mitigation potential while simultaneously improving health. Citation: Remais JV, Hess JJ, Ebi KL, Markandya A, Balbus JM, Wilkinson P, Haines A, Chalabi Z. 2014. Estimating the health effects of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies: addressing parametric, model, and valuation challenges. Environ Health Perspect 122:447–455; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306744 PMID:24583270

CorRECTreatment: A Web-based Decision Support Tool for Rectal Cancer Treatment that Uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Decision Tree

PubMed Central

Karakülah, G.; Dicle, O.; Sökmen, S.; Çelikoğlu, C.C.

2015-01-01

Summary Background The selection of appropriate rectal cancer treatment is a complex multi-criteria decision making process, in which clinical decision support systems might be used to assist and enrich physicians’ decision making. Objective The objective of the study was to develop a web-based clinical decision support tool for physicians in the selection of potentially beneficial treatment options for patients with rectal cancer. Methods The updated decision model contained 8 and 10 criteria in the first and second steps respectively. The decision support model, developed in our previous study by combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method which determines the priority of criteria and decision tree that formed using these priorities, was updated and applied to 388 patients data collected retrospectively. Later, a web-based decision support tool named corRECTreatment was developed. The compatibility of the treatment recommendations by the expert opinion and the decision support tool was examined for its consistency. Two surgeons were requested to recommend a treatment and an overall survival value for the treatment among 20 different cases that we selected and turned into a scenario among the most common and rare treatment options in the patient data set. Results In the AHP analyses of the criteria, it was found that the matrices, generated for both decision steps, were consistent (consistency ratio<0.1). Depending on the decisions of experts, the consistency value for the most frequent cases was found to be 80% for the first decision step and 100% for the second decision step. Similarly, for rare cases consistency was 50% for the first decision step and 80% for the second decision step. Conclusions The decision model and corRECTreatment, developed by applying these on real patient data, are expected to provide potential users with decision support in rectal cancer treatment processes and facilitate them in making projections about treatment options. PMID:25848413

CorRECTreatment: a web-based decision support tool for rectal cancer treatment that uses the analytic hierarchy process and decision tree.

PubMed

Suner, A; Karakülah, G; Dicle, O; Sökmen, S; Çelikoğlu, C C

2015-01-01

The selection of appropriate rectal cancer treatment is a complex multi-criteria decision making process, in which clinical decision support systems might be used to assist and enrich physicians' decision making. The objective of the study was to develop a web-based clinical decision support tool for physicians in the selection of potentially beneficial treatment options for patients with rectal cancer. The updated decision model contained 8 and 10 criteria in the first and second steps respectively. The decision support model, developed in our previous study by combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method which determines the priority of criteria and decision tree that formed using these priorities, was updated and applied to 388 patients data collected retrospectively. Later, a web-based decision support tool named corRECTreatment was developed. The compatibility of the treatment recommendations by the expert opinion and the decision support tool was examined for its consistency. Two surgeons were requested to recommend a treatment and an overall survival value for the treatment among 20 different cases that we selected and turned into a scenario among the most common and rare treatment options in the patient data set. In the AHP analyses of the criteria, it was found that the matrices, generated for both decision steps, were consistent (consistency ratio<0.1). Depending on the decisions of experts, the consistency value for the most frequent cases was found to be 80% for the first decision step and 100% for the second decision step. Similarly, for rare cases consistency was 50% for the first decision step and 80% for the second decision step. The decision model and corRECTreatment, developed by applying these on real patient data, are expected to provide potential users with decision support in rectal cancer treatment processes and facilitate them in making projections about treatment options.

Predicting Malignant and Paramalignant Pleural Effusions by Combining Clinical, Radiological and Pleural Fluid Analytical Parameters.

PubMed

Herrera Lara, Susana; Fernández-Fabrellas, Estrella; Juan Samper, Gustavo; Marco Buades, Josefa; Andreu Lapiedra, Rafael; Pinilla Moreno, Amparo; Morales Suárez-Varela, María

2017-10-01

The usefulness of clinical, radiological and pleural fluid analytical parameters for diagnosing malignant and paramalignant pleural effusion is not clearly stated. Hence this study aimed to identify possible predictor variables of diagnosing malignancy in pleural effusion of unknown aetiology. Clinical, radiological and pleural fluid analytical parameters were obtained from consecutive patients who had suffered pleural effusion of unknown aetiology. They were classified into three groups according to their final diagnosis: malignant, paramalignant and benign pleural effusion. The CHAID (Chi-square automatic interaction detector) methodology was used to estimate the implication of the clinical, radiological and analytical variables in daily practice through decision trees. Of 71 patients, malignant (n = 31), paramalignant (n = 15) and benign (n = 25), smoking habit, dyspnoea, weight loss, radiological characteristics (mass, node, adenopathies and pleural thickening) and pleural fluid analytical parameters (pH and glucose) distinguished malignant and paramalignant pleural effusions (all with a p < 0.05). Decision tree 1 classified 77.8% of malignant and paramalignant pleural effusions in step 2. Decision tree 2 classified 83.3% of malignant pleural effusions in step 2, 73.3% of paramalignant pleural effusions and 91.7% of benign ones. The data herein suggest that the identified predictor values applied to tree diagrams, which required no extraordinary measures, have a higher rate of correct identification of malignant, paramalignant and benign effusions when compared to techniques available today and proved most useful for usual clinical practice. Future studies are still needed to further improve the classification of patients.

Analyses of ACPL thermal/fluid conditioning system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephen, L. A.; Usher, L. H.

1976-01-01

Results of engineering analyses are reported. Initial computations were made using a modified control transfer function where the systems performance was characterized parametrically using an analytical model. The analytical model was revised to represent the latest expansion chamber fluid manifold design, and systems performance predictions were made. Parameters which were independently varied in these computations are listed. Systems predictions which were used to characterize performance are primarily transient computer plots comparing the deviation between average chamber temperature and the chamber temperature requirement. Additional computer plots were prepared. Results of parametric computations with the latest fluid manifold design are included.

LATUX: An Iterative Workflow for Designing, Validating, and Deploying Learning Analytics Visualizations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martinez-Maldonado, Roberto; Pardo, Abelardo; Mirriahi, Negin; Yacef, Kalina; Kay, Judy; Clayphan, Andrew

2015-01-01

Designing, validating, and deploying learning analytics tools for instructors or students is a challenge that requires techniques and methods from different disciplines, such as software engineering, human-computer interaction, computer graphics, educational design, and psychology. Whilst each has established its own design methodologies, we now…

Analytical tool for measuring emissions impact of acceleration and deceleration lanes : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-04-01

Air quality has become one of the important factors to be considered in making transportation improvement : decisions. Thus, tools are expected to help such decision-makings. On the other hand, MOBILE5 model, which : has been widely used in evaluatin...

Decision Making in Special Education: The Function of Meta-Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kavale, Kenneth A.

2001-01-01

This article uses meta-analytic findings to evaluate six special education interventions: psycholinguistic training, perceptual-motor training, modality-matched instruction, and treatments for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (stimulant medication, diet modification, and social skills training). Findings are related to decision making in…

Considering Risk and Resilience in Decision-Making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

2015-01-01

This paper examines the concepts of decision-making, risk analysis, uncertainty and resilience analysis. The relation between risk, vulnerability, and resilience is analyzed. The paper describes how complexity, uncertainty, and ambiguity are the most critical factors in the definition of the approach and criteria for decision-making. Uncertainty in its various forms is what limits our ability to offer definitive answers to questions about the outcomes of alternatives in a decision-making process. It is shown that, although resilience-informed decision-making would seem fundamentally different from risk-informed decision-making, this is not the case as resilience-analysis can be easily incorporated within existing analytic-deliberative decision-making frameworks.

An analytical and experimental evaluation of a Fresnel lens solar concentrator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hastings, L. J.; Allums, S. A.; Cosby, R. M.

1976-01-01

An analytical and experimental evaluation of line focusing Fresnel lenses with application potential in the 200 to 370 C range was studied. Analytical techniques were formulated to assess the solar transmission and imaging properties of a grooves down lens. Experimentation was based on a 56 cm wide, f/1.0 lens. A Sun tracking heliostat provided a nonmoving solar source. Measured data indicated more spreading at the profile base than analytically predicted, resulting in a peak concentration 18 percent lower than the computed peak of 57. The measured and computed transmittances were 85 and 87 percent, respectively. Preliminary testing with a subsequent lens indicated that modified manufacturing techniques corrected the profile spreading problem and should enable improved analytical experimental correlation.

Decision Accuracy in Computer-Mediated versus Face-to-Face Decision-Making Teams.

PubMed

Hedlund; Ilgen; Hollenbeck

1998-10-01

Changes in the way organizations are structured and advances in communication technologies are two factors that have altered the conditions under which group decisions are made. Decisions are increasingly made by teams that have a hierarchical structure and whose members have different areas of expertise. In addition, many decisions are no longer made via strictly face-to-face interaction. The present study examines the effects of two modes of communication (face-to-face or computer-mediated) on the accuracy of teams' decisions. The teams are characterized by a hierarchical structure and their members differ in expertise consistent with the framework outlined in the Multilevel Theory of team decision making presented by Hollenbeck, Ilgen, Sego, Hedlund, Major, and Phillips (1995). Sixty-four four-person teams worked for 3 h on a computer simulation interacting either face-to-face (FtF) or over a computer network. The communication mode had mixed effects on team processes in that members of FtF teams were better informed and made recommendations that were more predictive of the correct team decision, but leaders of CM teams were better able to differentiate staff members on the quality of their decisions. Controlling for the negative impact of FtF communication on staff member differentiation increased the beneficial effect of the FtF mode on overall decision making accuracy. Copyright 1998 Academic Press.

"May I Please Tell You a Little Anecdote?" Inter-Professional Decision-Making about Inclusion in the Borderland between General and Special Schooling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Røn Larsen, Maja

2016-01-01

This article addresses inter-professional work and decision-making around inclusion in school, using an approach inspired by social practice theory. Based on a case analysis, the article presents analytical examples of the ways in which knowledge from children's everyday life tends to be considered anecdotal and disregarded in the decision-making…

Numbers Are Not Enough. Why e-Learning Analytics Failed to Inform an Institutional Strategic Plan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Macfadyen, Leah P.; Dawson, Shane

2012-01-01

Learning analytics offers higher education valuable insights that can inform strategic decision-making regarding resource allocation for educational excellence. Research demonstrates that learning management systems (LMSs) can increase student sense of community, support learning communities and enhance student engagement and success, and LMSs…

Analytics that Inform the University: Using Data You Already Have

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dziuban, Charles; Moskal, Patsy; Cavanagh, Thomas; Watts, Andre

2012-01-01

The authors describe the University of Central Florida's top-down/bottom-up action analytics approach to using data to inform decision-making at the University of Central Florida. The top-down approach utilizes information about programs, modalities, and college implementation of Web initiatives. The bottom-up approach continuously monitors…

Building a Metrics-Enabled Marketing Curriculum: The Cornerstone Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pilling, Bruce K.; Rigdon, Edward E.; Brightman, Harvey J.

2012-01-01

The lack of analytical preparation of marketing students was a key concern at a large, public university in southeastern United States, leading to the decision to create a new required undergraduate marketing metrics course. This article describes the development of that course, designed specifically to strengthen analytical skills across the…

The Slow Work of Democracy: Resisting Reductionist Views of Women and Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Serriere, Stephanie C.

2017-01-01

In her research article "State your defense!": Children negotiate analytic frames in the context of deliberative dialogue," Hauver offers important contributions to the field of elementary civic education that illuminate how young people apply various analytical frames to make collective decisions. First, I highlight significant…

Analytic and Heuristic Processing Influences on Adolescent Reasoning and Decision-Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klaczynski, Paul A.

2001-01-01

Examined the relationship between age and the normative/descriptive gap--the discrepancy between actual reasoning and traditional standards for reasoning. Found that middle adolescents performed closer to normative ideals than early adolescents. Factor analyses suggested that performance was based on two processing systems, analytic and heuristic…

Student Career Decisions: The Limits of Rationality.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baumgardner, Steve R.; Rappoport, Leon

This study compares modes of cognitive functioning revealed in student selection of a college major. Students were interviewed in-depth concerning reasons for their choice of majors. Protocol data suggested two distinct modes of thinking were evident on an analytic-intuitive dimension. For operational purposes analytic thinking was defined by…

Heuristic and optimal policy computations in the human brain during sequential decision-making.

PubMed

Korn, Christoph W; Bach, Dominik R

2018-01-23

Optimal decisions across extended time horizons require value calculations over multiple probabilistic future states. Humans may circumvent such complex computations by resorting to easy-to-compute heuristics that approximate optimal solutions. To probe the potential interplay between heuristic and optimal computations, we develop a novel sequential decision-making task, framed as virtual foraging in which participants have to avoid virtual starvation. Rewards depend only on final outcomes over five-trial blocks, necessitating planning over five sequential decisions and probabilistic outcomes. Here, we report model comparisons demonstrating that participants primarily rely on the best available heuristic but also use the normatively optimal policy. FMRI signals in medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) relate to heuristic and optimal policies and associated choice uncertainties. Crucially, reaction times and dorsal MPFC activity scale with discrepancies between heuristic and optimal policies. Thus, sequential decision-making in humans may emerge from integration between heuristic and optimal policies, implemented by controllers in MPFC.

Patient or physician preferences for decision analysis: the prenatal genetic testing decision.

PubMed

Heckerling, P S; Verp, M S; Albert, N

1999-01-01

The choice between amniocentesis and chorionic villus sampling for prenatal genetic testing involves tradeoffs of the benefits and risks of the tests. Decision analysis is a method of explicitly weighing such tradeoffs. The authors examined the relationship between prenatal test choices made by patients and the choices prescribed by decision-analytic models based on their preferences, and separate models based on the preferences of their physicians. Preferences were assessed using written scenarios describing prenatal testing outcomes, and were recorded on linear rating scales. After adjustment for sociodemographic and obstetric confounders, test choice was significantly associated with the choice of decision models based on patient preferences (odds ratio 4.44; Cl, 2.53 to 7.78), but not with the choice of models based on the preferences of the physicians (odds ratio 1.60; Cl, 0.79 to 3.26). Agreement between decision analyses based on patient preferences and on physician preferences was little better than chance (kappa = 0.085+/-0.063). These results were robust both to changes in the decision-analytic probabilities and to changes in the model structure itself to simulate non-expected utility decision rules. The authors conclude that patient but not physician preferences, incorporated in decision models, correspond to the choice of amniocentesis or chorionic villus sampling made by the patient. Nevertheless, because patient preferences were assessed after referral for genetic testing, prospective preference-assessment studies will be necessary to confirm this association.

Estimation of Survival Probabilities for Use in Cost-effectiveness Analyses: A Comparison of a Multi-state Modeling Survival Analysis Approach with Partitioned Survival and Markov Decision-Analytic Modeling

PubMed Central

Williams, Claire; Lewsey, James D.; Mackay, Daniel F.; Briggs, Andrew H.

2016-01-01

Modeling of clinical-effectiveness in a cost-effectiveness analysis typically involves some form of partitioned survival or Markov decision-analytic modeling. The health states progression-free, progression and death and the transitions between them are frequently of interest. With partitioned survival, progression is not modeled directly as a state; instead, time in that state is derived from the difference in area between the overall survival and the progression-free survival curves. With Markov decision-analytic modeling, a priori assumptions are often made with regard to the transitions rather than using the individual patient data directly to model them. This article compares a multi-state modeling survival regression approach to these two common methods. As a case study, we use a trial comparing rituximab in combination with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide v. fludarabine and cyclophosphamide alone for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia. We calculated mean Life Years and QALYs that involved extrapolation of survival outcomes in the trial. We adapted an existing multi-state modeling approach to incorporate parametric distributions for transition hazards, to allow extrapolation. The comparison showed that, due to the different assumptions used in the different approaches, a discrepancy in results was evident. The partitioned survival and Markov decision-analytic modeling deemed the treatment cost-effective with ICERs of just over £16,000 and £13,000, respectively. However, the results with the multi-state modeling were less conclusive, with an ICER of just over £29,000. This work has illustrated that it is imperative to check whether assumptions are realistic, as different model choices can influence clinical and cost-effectiveness results. PMID:27698003

Estimation of Survival Probabilities for Use in Cost-effectiveness Analyses: A Comparison of a Multi-state Modeling Survival Analysis Approach with Partitioned Survival and Markov Decision-Analytic Modeling.

PubMed

Williams, Claire; Lewsey, James D; Mackay, Daniel F; Briggs, Andrew H

2017-05-01

Modeling of clinical-effectiveness in a cost-effectiveness analysis typically involves some form of partitioned survival or Markov decision-analytic modeling. The health states progression-free, progression and death and the transitions between them are frequently of interest. With partitioned survival, progression is not modeled directly as a state; instead, time in that state is derived from the difference in area between the overall survival and the progression-free survival curves. With Markov decision-analytic modeling, a priori assumptions are often made with regard to the transitions rather than using the individual patient data directly to model them. This article compares a multi-state modeling survival regression approach to these two common methods. As a case study, we use a trial comparing rituximab in combination with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide v. fludarabine and cyclophosphamide alone for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia. We calculated mean Life Years and QALYs that involved extrapolation of survival outcomes in the trial. We adapted an existing multi-state modeling approach to incorporate parametric distributions for transition hazards, to allow extrapolation. The comparison showed that, due to the different assumptions used in the different approaches, a discrepancy in results was evident. The partitioned survival and Markov decision-analytic modeling deemed the treatment cost-effective with ICERs of just over £16,000 and £13,000, respectively. However, the results with the multi-state modeling were less conclusive, with an ICER of just over £29,000. This work has illustrated that it is imperative to check whether assumptions are realistic, as different model choices can influence clinical and cost-effectiveness results.

A systematic and critical review of the evolving methods and applications of value of information in academia and practice.

PubMed

Steuten, Lotte; van de Wetering, Gijs; Groothuis-Oudshoorn, Karin; Retèl, Valesca

2013-01-01

This article provides a systematic and critical review of the evolving methods and applications of value of information (VOI) in academia and practice and discusses where future research needs to be directed. Published VOI studies were identified by conducting a computerized search on Scopus and ISI Web of Science from 1980 until December 2011 using pre-specified search terms. Only full-text papers that outlined and discussed VOI methods for medical decision making, and studies that applied VOI and explicitly discussed the results with a view to informing healthcare decision makers, were included. The included papers were divided into methodological and applied papers, based on the aim of the study. A total of 118 papers were included of which 50 % (n = 59) are methodological. A rapidly accumulating literature base on VOI from 1999 onwards for methodological papers and from 2005 onwards for applied papers is observed. Expected value of sample information (EVSI) is the preferred method of VOI to inform decision making regarding specific future studies, but real-life applications of EVSI remain scarce. Methodological challenges to VOI are numerous and include the high computational demands, dealing with non-linear models and interdependency between parameters, estimations of effective time horizons and patient populations, and structural uncertainties. VOI analysis receives increasing attention in both the methodological and the applied literature bases, but challenges to applying VOI in real-life decision making remain. For many technical and methodological challenges to VOI analytic solutions have been proposed in the literature, including leaner methods for VOI. Further research should also focus on the needs of decision makers regarding VOI.

A queueing model of pilot decision making in a multi-task flight management situation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walden, R. S.; Rouse, W. B.

1977-01-01

Allocation of decision making responsibility between pilot and computer is considered and a flight management task, designed for the study of pilot-computer interaction, is discussed. A queueing theory model of pilot decision making in this multi-task, control and monitoring situation is presented. An experimental investigation of pilot decision making and the resulting model parameters are discussed.

Mechanical Properties of Additively Manufactured Thick Honeycombs

PubMed Central

Hedayati, Reza; Sadighi, Mojtaba; Mohammadi Aghdam, Mohammad; Zadpoor, Amir Abbas

2016-01-01

Honeycombs resemble the structure of a number of natural and biological materials such as cancellous bone, wood, and cork. Thick honeycomb could be also used for energy absorption applications. Moreover, studying the mechanical behavior of honeycombs under in-plane loading could help understanding the mechanical behavior of more complex 3D tessellated structures such as porous biomaterials. In this paper, we study the mechanical behavior of thick honeycombs made using additive manufacturing techniques that allow for fabrication of honeycombs with arbitrary and precisely controlled thickness. Thick honeycombs with different wall thicknesses were produced from polylactic acid (PLA) using fused deposition modelling, i.e., an additive manufacturing technique. The samples were mechanically tested in-plane under compression to determine their mechanical properties. We also obtained exact analytical solutions for the stiffness matrix of thick hexagonal honeycombs using both Euler-Bernoulli and Timoshenko beam theories. The stiffness matrix was then used to derive analytical relationships that describe the elastic modulus, yield stress, and Poisson’s ratio of thick honeycombs. Finite element models were also built for computational analysis of the mechanical behavior of thick honeycombs under compression. The mechanical properties obtained using our analytical relationships were compared with experimental observations and computational results as well as with analytical solutions available in the literature. It was found that the analytical solutions presented here are in good agreement with experimental and computational results even for very thick honeycombs, whereas the analytical solutions available in the literature show a large deviation from experimental observation, computational results, and our analytical solutions. PMID:28773735

A Fuzzy Cognitive Model of aeolian instability across the South Texas Sandsheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houser, C.; Bishop, M. P.; Barrineau, C. P.

2014-12-01

Characterization of aeolian systems is complicated by rapidly changing surface-process regimes, spatio-temporal scale dependencies, and subjective interpretation of imagery and spatial data. This paper describes the development and application of analytical reasoning to quantify instability of an aeolian environment using scale-dependent information coupled with conceptual knowledge of process and feedback mechanisms. Specifically, a simple Fuzzy Cognitive Model (FCM) for aeolian landscape instability was developed that represents conceptual knowledge of key biophysical processes and feedbacks. Model inputs include satellite-derived surface biophysical and geomorphometric parameters. FCMs are a knowledge-based Artificial Intelligence (AI) technique that merges fuzzy logic and neural computing in which knowledge or concepts are structured as a web of relationships that is similar to both human reasoning and the human decision-making process. Given simple process-form relationships, the analytical reasoning model is able to map the influence of land management practices and the geomorphology of the inherited surface on aeolian instability within the South Texas Sandsheet. Results suggest that FCMs can be used to formalize process-form relationships and information integration analogous to human cognition with future iterations accounting for the spatial interactions and temporal lags across the sand sheets.

Real-time video analysis for retail stores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassan, Ehtesham; Maurya, Avinash K.

2015-03-01

With the advancement in video processing technologies, we can capture subtle human responses in a retail store environment which play decisive role in the store management. In this paper, we present a novel surveillance video based analytic system for retail stores targeting localized and global traffic estimate. Development of an intelligent system for human traffic estimation in real-life poses a challenging problem because of the variation and noise involved. In this direction, we begin with a novel human tracking system by an intelligent combination of motion based and image level object detection. We demonstrate the initial evaluation of this approach on available standard dataset yielding promising result. Exact traffic estimate in a retail store require correct separation of customers from service providers. We present a role based human classification framework using Gaussian mixture model for this task. A novel feature descriptor named graded colour histogram is defined for object representation. Using, our role based human classification and tracking system, we have defined a novel computationally efficient framework for two types of analytics generation i.e., region specific people count and dwell-time estimation. This system has been extensively evaluated and tested on four hours of real-life video captured from a retail store.

A Framework for Integrating Environmental Justice in Regulatory Analysis

PubMed Central

Nweke, Onyemaechi C.

2011-01-01

With increased interest in integrating environmental justice into the process for developing environmental regulations in the United States, analysts and decision makers are confronted with the question of what methods and data can be used to assess disproportionate environmental health impacts. However, as a first step to identifying data and methods, it is important that analysts understand what information on equity impacts is needed for decision making. Such knowledge originates from clearly stated equity objectives and the reflection of those objectives throughout the analytical activities that characterize Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA), a process that is traditionally used to inform decision making. The framework proposed in this paper advocates structuring analyses to explicitly provide pre-defined output on equity impacts. Specifically, the proposed framework emphasizes: (a) defining equity objectives for the proposed regulatory action at the onset of the regulatory process, (b) identifying specific and related sub-objectives for key analytical steps in the RIA process, and (c) developing explicit analytical/research questions to assure that stated sub-objectives and objectives are met. In proposing this framework, it is envisioned that information on equity impacts informs decision-making in regulatory development, and that this is achieved through a systematic and consistent approach that assures linkages between stated equity objectives, regulatory analyses, selection of policy options, and the design of compliance and enforcement activities. PMID:21776235

Pythagorean fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to multi-criteria decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohd, Wan Rosanisah Wan; Abdullah, Lazim

2017-11-01

A numerous approaches have been proposed in the literature to determine the criteria of weight. The weight of criteria is very significant in the process of decision making. One of the outstanding approaches that used to determine weight of criteria is analytic hierarchy process (AHP). This method involves decision makers (DMs) to evaluate the decision to form the pair-wise comparison between criteria and alternatives. In classical AHP, the linguistic variable of pairwise comparison is presented in terms of crisp value. However, this method is not appropriate to present the real situation of the problems because it involved the uncertainty in linguistic judgment. For this reason, AHP has been extended by incorporating the Pythagorean fuzzy sets. In addition, no one has found in the literature proposed how to determine the weight of criteria using AHP under Pythagorean fuzzy sets. In order to solve the MCDM problem, the Pythagorean fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is proposed to determine the criteria weight of the evaluation criteria. Using the linguistic variables, pairwise comparison for evaluation criteria are made to the weights of criteria using Pythagorean fuzzy numbers (PFNs). The proposed method is implemented in the evaluation problem in order to demonstrate its applicability. This study shows that the proposed method provides us with a useful way and a new direction in solving MCDM problems with Pythagorean fuzzy context.

Intuition: A Concept Analysis.

PubMed

Chilcote, Deborah R

2017-01-01

The purpose of this article is to conceptually examine intuition; identify the importance of intuition in nursing education, clinical practice, and patient care; encourage acceptance of the use of intuition; and add to the body of nursing knowledge. Nurses often report using intuition when making clinical decisions. Intuition is a rapid, unconscious process based in global knowledge that views the patient holistically while synthesizing information to improve patient outcomes. However, with the advent of evidence-based practice (EBP), the use of intuition has become undervalued in nursing. Walker and Avant's framework was used to analyze intuition. A literature search from 1987 to 2014 was conducted using the following keywords: intuition, intuition and nursing, clinical decision making, clinical decision making and intuition, patient outcomes, EBP, and analytical thinking. The use of intuition is reported by nurses, but is not legitimized within the nursing profession. Defining attributes of intuition are an unconscious, holistic knowledge gathered without using an analytical process and knowledge derived through synthesis, not analysis. Consequences include verification of intuition through an analytical process and translating that knowledge into a course of action. This article supports the use of intuition in nursing by offering clarity to the concept, adds to the nursing knowledge base, encourages a holistic view of the patient during clinical decision making, and encourages nurse educators to promote the use of intuition. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Interacting neural networks.

PubMed

Metzler, R; Kinzel, W; Kanter, I

2000-08-01

Several scenarios of interacting neural networks which are trained either in an identical or in a competitive way are solved analytically. In the case of identical training each perceptron receives the output of its neighbor. The symmetry of the stationary state as well as the sensitivity to the used training algorithm are investigated. Two competitive perceptrons trained on mutually exclusive learning aims and a perceptron which is trained on the opposite of its own output are examined analytically. An ensemble of competitive perceptrons is used as decision-making algorithms in a model of a closed market (El Farol Bar problem or the Minority Game. In this game, a set of agents who have to make a binary decision is considered.); each network is trained on the history of minority decisions. This ensemble of perceptrons relaxes to a stationary state whose performance can be better than random.

Interacting neural networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metzler, R.; Kinzel, W.; Kanter, I.

2000-08-01

Several scenarios of interacting neural networks which are trained either in an identical or in a competitive way are solved analytically. In the case of identical training each perceptron receives the output of its neighbor. The symmetry of the stationary state as well as the sensitivity to the used training algorithm are investigated. Two competitive perceptrons trained on mutually exclusive learning aims and a perceptron which is trained on the opposite of its own output are examined analytically. An ensemble of competitive perceptrons is used as decision-making algorithms in a model of a closed market (El Farol Bar problem or the Minority Game. In this game, a set of agents who have to make a binary decision is considered.); each network is trained on the history of minority decisions. This ensemble of perceptrons relaxes to a stationary state whose performance can be better than random.

E-HOSPITAL - A Digital Workbench for Hospital Operations and Services Planning Using Information Technology and Algebraic Languages.

PubMed

Gartner, Daniel; Padman, Rema

2017-01-01

In this paper, we describe the development of a unified framework and a digital workbench for the strategic, tactical and operational hospital management plan driven by information technology and analytics. The workbench can be used not only by multiple stakeholders in the healthcare delivery setting, but also for pedagogical purposes on topics such as healthcare analytics, services management, and information systems. This tool combines the three classical hierarchical decision-making levels in one integrated environment. At each level, several decision problems can be chosen. Extensions of mathematical models from the literature are presented and incorporated into the digital platform. In a case study using real-world data, we demonstrate how we used the workbench to inform strategic capacity planning decisions in a multi-hospital, multi-stakeholder setting in the United Kingdom.

Analysis of an all-digital maximum likelihood carrier phase and clock timing synchronizer for eight phase-shift keying modulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Degaudenzi, Riccardo; Vanghi, Vieri

1994-02-01

In all-digital Trellis-Coded 8PSK (TC-8PSK) demodulator well suited for VLSI implementation, including maximum likelihood estimation decision-directed (MLE-DD) carrier phase and clock timing recovery, is introduced and analyzed. By simply removing the trellis decoder the demodulator can efficiently cope with uncoded 8PSK signals. The proposed MLE-DD synchronization algorithm requires one sample for the phase and two samples per symbol for the timing loop. The joint phase and timing discriminator characteristics are analytically derived and numerical results checked by means of computer simulations. An approximated expression for steady-state carrier phase and clock timing mean square error has been derived and successfully checked with simulation findings. Synchronizer deviation from the Cramer Rao bound is also discussed. Mean acquisition time for the digital synchronizer has also been computed and checked, using the Monte Carlo simulation technique. Finally, TC-8PSK digital demodulator performance in terms of bit error rate and mean time to lose lock, including digital interpolators and synchronization loops, is presented.

Averting Denver Airports on a Chip

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sullivan, Kevin J.

1995-01-01

As a result of recent advances in software engineering capabilities, we are now in a more stable environment. De-facto hardware and software standards are emerging. Work on software architecture and design patterns signals a consensus on the importance of early system-level design decisions, and agreements on the uses of certain paradigmatic software structures. We now routinely build systems that would have been risky or infeasible a few years ago. Unfortunately, technological developments threaten to destabilize software design again. Systems designed around novel computing and peripheral devices will spark ambitious new projects that will stress current software design and engineering capabilities. Micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) and related technologies provide the physical basis for new systems with the potential to produce this kind of destabilizing effect. One important response to anticipated software engineering and design difficulties is carefully directed engineering-scientific research. Two specific problems meriting substantial research attention are: A lack of sufficient means to build software systems by generating, extending, specializing, and integrating large-scale reusable components; and a lack of adequate computational and analytic tools to extend and aid engineers in maintaining intellectual control over complex software designs.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sen, Satyabrata; Rao, Nageswara S; Wu, Qishi

There have been increasingly large deployments of radiation detection networks that require computationally fast algorithms to produce prompt results over ad-hoc sub-networks of mobile devices, such as smart-phones. These algorithms are in sharp contrast to complex network algorithms that necessitate all measurements to be sent to powerful central servers. In this work, at individual sensors, we employ Wald-statistic based detection algorithms which are computationally very fast, and are implemented as one of three Z-tests and four chi-square tests. At fusion center, we apply the K-out-of-N fusion to combine the sensors hard decisions. We characterize the performance of detection methods bymore » deriving analytical expressions for the distributions of underlying test statistics, and by analyzing the fusion performances in terms of K, N, and the false-alarm rates of individual detectors. We experimentally validate our methods using measurements from indoor and outdoor characterization tests of the Intelligence Radiation Sensors Systems (IRSS) program. In particular, utilizing the outdoor measurements, we construct two important real-life scenarios, boundary surveillance and portal monitoring, and present the results of our algorithms.« less

Analytical approximate solutions for a general class of nonlinear delay differential equations.

PubMed

Căruntu, Bogdan; Bota, Constantin

2014-01-01

We use the polynomial least squares method (PLSM), which allows us to compute analytical approximate polynomial solutions for a very general class of strongly nonlinear delay differential equations. The method is tested by computing approximate solutions for several applications including the pantograph equations and a nonlinear time-delay model from biology. The accuracy of the method is illustrated by a comparison with approximate solutions previously computed using other methods.

Decision Making about Computer Acquisition and Use in American Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Becker, Henry Jay

1993-01-01

Discusses the centralization and decentralization of decision making about computer use in elementary and secondary schools based on results of a 1989 national survey. Results unexpectedly indicate that more successful programs are the result of districtwide planning than individual teacher or school-level decision making. (LRW)

Decision support systems for ecosystem management: An evaluation of existing systems

Treesearch

H. Todd Mowrer; Klaus Barber; Joe Campbell; Nick Crookston; Cathy Dahms; John Day; Jim Laacke; Jim Merzenich; Steve Mighton; Mike Rauscher; Rick Sojda; Joyce Thompson; Peter Trenchi; Mark Twery

1997-01-01

This report evaluated 24 computer-aided decision support systems (DSS) that can support management decision-making in forest ecosystems. It compares the scope of each system, spatial capabilities, computational methods, development status, input and output requirements, user support availability, and system performance. Questionnaire responses from the DSS developers (...

Hasse diagram as a green analytical metrics tool: ranking of methods for benzo[a]pyrene determination in sediments.

PubMed

Bigus, Paulina; Tsakovski, Stefan; Simeonov, Vasil; Namieśnik, Jacek; Tobiszewski, Marek

2016-05-01

This study presents an application of the Hasse diagram technique (HDT) as the assessment tool to select the most appropriate analytical procedures according to their greenness or the best analytical performance. The dataset consists of analytical procedures for benzo[a]pyrene determination in sediment samples, which were described by 11 variables concerning their greenness and analytical performance. Two analyses with the HDT were performed-the first one with metrological variables and the second one with "green" variables as input data. Both HDT analyses ranked different analytical procedures as the most valuable, suggesting that green analytical chemistry is not in accordance with metrology when benzo[a]pyrene in sediment samples is determined. The HDT can be used as a good decision support tool to choose the proper analytical procedure concerning green analytical chemistry principles and analytical performance merits.

Bimodal fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (BFAHP) for coronary heart disease risk assessment.

PubMed

Sabahi, Farnaz

2018-04-04

Rooted deeply in medical multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM), risk assessment is very important especially when applied to the risk of being affected by deadly diseases such as coronary heart disease (CHD). CHD risk assessment is a stochastic, uncertain, and highly dynamic process influenced by various known and unknown variables. In recent years, there has been a great interest in fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP), a popular methodology for dealing with uncertainty in MCDM. This paper proposes a new FAHP, bimodal fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (BFAHP) that augments two aspects of knowledge, probability and validity, to fuzzy numbers to better deal with uncertainty. In BFAHP, fuzzy validity is computed by aggregating the validities of relevant risk factors based on expert knowledge and collective intelligence. By considering both soft and statistical data, we compute the fuzzy probability of risk factors using the Bayesian formulation. In BFAHP approach, these fuzzy validities and fuzzy probabilities are used to construct a reciprocal comparison matrix. We then aggregate fuzzy probabilities and fuzzy validities in a pairwise manner for each risk factor and each alternative. BFAHP decides about being affected and not being affected by ranking of high and low risks. For evaluation, the proposed approach is applied to the risk of being affected by CHD using a real dataset of 152 patients of Iranian hospitals. Simulation results confirm that adding validity in a fuzzy manner can accrue more confidence of results and clinically useful especially in the face of incomplete information when compared with actual results. Applying the proposed BFAHP on CHD risk assessment of the dataset, it yields high accuracy rate above 85% for correct prediction. In addition, this paper recognizes that the risk factors of diastolic blood pressure in men and high-density lipoprotein in women are more important in CHD than other risk factors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Information support for decision making on dispatching control of water distribution in irrigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yurchenko, I. F.

2018-05-01

The research has been carried out on developing the technique of supporting decision making for on-line control, operational management of water allocation for the interfarm irrigation projects basing on the analytical patterns of dispatcher control. This technique provides an increase of labour productivity as well as higher management quality due to the improved level of automation, as well as decision making optimization taking into account diagnostics of the issues, solutions classification, information being required to the decision makers.

Current recommendations on the estimation of transition probabilities in Markov cohort models for use in health care decision-making: a targeted literature review.

PubMed

Olariu, Elena; Cadwell, Kevin K; Hancock, Elizabeth; Trueman, David; Chevrou-Severac, Helene

2017-01-01

Although Markov cohort models represent one of the most common forms of decision-analytic models used in health care decision-making, correct implementation of such models requires reliable estimation of transition probabilities. This study sought to identify consensus statements or guidelines that detail how such transition probability matrices should be estimated. A literature review was performed to identify relevant publications in the following databases: Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Library, and PubMed. Electronic searches were supplemented by manual-searches of health technology assessment (HTA) websites in Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, and the UK. One reviewer assessed studies for eligibility. Of the 1,931 citations identified in the electronic searches, no studies met the inclusion criteria for full-text review, and no guidelines on transition probabilities in Markov models were identified. Manual-searching of the websites of HTA agencies identified ten guidelines on economic evaluations (Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, and UK). All identified guidelines provided general guidance on how to develop economic models, but none provided guidance on the calculation of transition probabilities. One relevant publication was identified following review of the reference lists of HTA agency guidelines: the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research taskforce guidance. This provided limited guidance on the use of rates and probabilities. There is limited formal guidance available on the estimation of transition probabilities for use in decision-analytic models. Given the increasing importance of cost-effectiveness analysis in the decision-making processes of HTA bodies and other medical decision-makers, there is a need for additional guidance to inform a more consistent approach to decision-analytic modeling. Further research should be done to develop more detailed guidelines on the estimation of transition probabilities.

FUZZY DECISION ANALYSIS FOR INTEGRATED ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION

EPA Science Inventory

A fuzzy decision analysis method for integrating ecological indicators is developed. This is a combination of a fuzzy ranking method and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The method is capable ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumula...

The Computer as Adaptive Instructional Decision Maker.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kopstein, Felix F.; Seidel, Robert J.

The computer's potential for education, and most particularly for instruction, is contingent on the development of a class of instructional decision models (formal instructional strategies) that interact with the student through appropriate peripheral equipment (man-machine interfaces). Computer hardware and software by themselves should not be…

Making the right decisions about new technologies: a perspective on criteria and preferences in hospitals.

PubMed

Gurtner, Sebastian

2014-01-01

Decision makers in hospitals are regularly faced with choices about the adoption of new technologies. Wrong decisions lead to a waste of resources and can have serious effects on the patients' and hospital's well-being. The goal of this research was to contribute to the understanding of decision making in hospitals. This study produced insights regarding relevant decision criteria and explored their specific relevance. An initial empirical survey was used to collect the relevant criteria for technological decision making in hospitals. In total, 220 experts in the field of health technology assessment from 34 countries participated in the survey. As a second step, the abovementioned criteria were used to form the basis of an analytic hierarchy process model. A group of 115 physicians, medical technical assistants, and other staff, all of whom worked in the field of radiooncology, prioritized the criteria. An analysis of variance was performed to explore differences among groups in terms of institutional and personal categorization variables. The first part of the research revealed seven key criteria for technological decision making in hospitals. The analytic hierarchy process model revealed that organizational impact was the most important criterion, followed by budget impact. The analysis of variance indicated that there were differences in the perceptions of the importance of the identified criteria. This exploration of the criteria for technological decision making in hospitals will help decision makers consider all of the relevant aspects, leading to more structured and rational decisions. For the optimal resource allocation, all of the relevant stakeholder perspectives and local issues must be considered appropriately.

Improved full analytical polygon-based method using Fourier analysis of the three-dimensional affine transformation.

PubMed

Pan, Yijie; Wang, Yongtian; Liu, Juan; Li, Xin; Jia, Jia

2014-03-01

Previous research [Appl. Opt.52, A290 (2013)] has revealed that Fourier analysis of three-dimensional affine transformation theory can be used to improve the computation speed of the traditional polygon-based method. In this paper, we continue our research and propose an improved full analytical polygon-based method developed upon this theory. Vertex vectors of primitive and arbitrary triangles and the pseudo-inverse matrix were used to obtain an affine transformation matrix representing the spatial relationship between the two triangles. With this relationship and the primitive spectrum, we analytically obtained the spectrum of the arbitrary triangle. This algorithm discards low-level angular dependent computations. In order to add diffusive reflection to each arbitrary surface, we also propose a whole matrix computation approach that takes advantage of the affine transformation matrix and uses matrix multiplication to calculate shifting parameters of similar sub-polygons. The proposed method improves hologram computation speed for the conventional full analytical approach. Optical experimental results are demonstrated which prove that the proposed method can effectively reconstruct three-dimensional scenes.

Analytical Cost Metrics : Days of Future Past

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prajapati, Nirmal; Rajopadhye, Sanjay; Djidjev, Hristo Nikolov

As we move towards the exascale era, the new architectures must be capable of running the massive computational problems efficiently. Scientists and researchers are continuously investing in tuning the performance of extreme-scale computational problems. These problems arise in almost all areas of computing, ranging from big data analytics, artificial intelligence, search, machine learning, virtual/augmented reality, computer vision, image/signal processing to computational science and bioinformatics. With Moore’s law driving the evolution of hardware platforms towards exascale, the dominant performance metric (time efficiency) has now expanded to also incorporate power/energy efficiency. Therefore the major challenge that we face in computing systems researchmore » is: “how to solve massive-scale computational problems in the most time/power/energy efficient manner?”« less

Sequential decision tree using the analytic hierarchy process for decision support in rectal cancer.

PubMed

Suner, Aslı; Çelikoğlu, Can Cengiz; Dicle, Oğuz; Sökmen, Selman

2012-09-01

The aim of the study is to determine the most appropriate method for construction of a sequential decision tree in the management of rectal cancer, using various patient-specific criteria and treatments such as surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy. An analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to determine the priorities of variables. Relevant criteria used in two decision steps and their relative priorities were established by a panel of five general surgeons. Data were collected via a web-based application and analyzed using the "Expert Choice" software specifically developed for the AHP. Consistency ratios in the AHP method were calculated for each set of judgments, and the priorities of sub-criteria were determined. A sequential decision tree was constructed for the best treatment decision process, using priorities determined by the AHP method. Consistency ratios in the AHP method were calculated for each decision step, and the judgments were considered consistent. The tumor-related criterion "presence of perforation" (0.331) and the patient-surgeon-related criterion "surgeon's experience" (0.630) had the highest priority in the first decision step. In the second decision step, the tumor-related criterion "the stage of the disease" (0.230) and the patient-surgeon-related criterion "surgeon's experience" (0.281) were the paramount criteria. The results showed some variation in the ranking of criteria between the decision steps. In the second decision step, for instance, the tumor-related criterion "presence of perforation" was just the fifth. The consistency of decision support systems largely depends on the quality of the underlying decision tree. When several choices and variables have to be considered in a decision, it is very important to determine priorities. The AHP method seems to be effective for this purpose. The decision algorithm developed by this method is more realistic and will improve the quality of the decision tree. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Teaching Advance Care Planning to Medical Students with a Computer-Based Decision Aid

PubMed Central

Levi, Benjamin H.

2013-01-01

Discussing end-of-life decisions with cancer patients is a crucial skill for physicians. This article reports findings from a pilot study evaluating the effectiveness of a computer-based decision aid for teaching medical students about advance care planning. Second-year medical students at a single medical school were randomized to use a standard advance directive or a computer-based decision aid to help patients with advance care planning. Students' knowledge, skills, and satisfaction were measured by self-report; their performance was rated by patients. 121/133 (91%) of students participated. The Decision-Aid Group (n=60) outperformed the Standard Group (n=61) in terms of students´ knowledge (p<0.01), confidence in helping patients with advance care planning (p<0.01), knowledge of what matters to patients (p=0.05), and satisfaction with their learning experience (p<0.01). Likewise, patients in the Decision Aid Group were more satisfied with the advance care planning method (p<0.01) and with several aspects of student performance. Use of a computer-based decision aid may be an effective way to teach medical students how to discuss advance care planning with cancer patients. PMID:20632222

Contingent Decision Behavior: A Review and Discussion of Issues.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-02-01

values) will draw more attention (Yates, et. al., 1978). Studies investigating decision making among partially described alternatives are limited in number...theory that attempts to describe human decison making ." More evidence of range effects is provided in Krzysztofowicz and Ouckstein (1980). A good...activities may move along that intuitive-analytic continuum over time. For that reason he argues that decision researchers need to pay more attention to the

Data visualisation in surveillance for injury prevention and control: conceptual bases and case studies.

PubMed

Martinez, Ramon; Ordunez, Pedro; Soliz, Patricia N; Ballesteros, Michael F

2016-04-01

The complexity of current injury-related health issues demands the usage of diverse and massive data sets for comprehensive analyses, and application of novel methods to communicate data effectively to the public health community, decision-makers and the public. Recent advances in information visualisation, availability of new visual analytic methods and tools, and progress on information technology provide an opportunity for shaping the next generation of injury surveillance. To introduce data visualisation conceptual bases, and propose a visual analytic and visualisation platform in public health surveillance for injury prevention and control. The paper introduces data visualisation conceptual bases, describes a visual analytic and visualisation platform, and presents two real-world case studies illustrating their application in public health surveillance for injury prevention and control. Application of visual analytic and visualisation platform is presented as solution for improved access to heterogeneous data sources, enhance data exploration and analysis, communicate data effectively, and support decision-making. Applications of data visualisation concepts and visual analytic platform could play a key role to shape the next generation of injury surveillance. Visual analytic and visualisation platform could improve data use, the analytic capacity, and ability to effectively communicate findings and key messages. The public health surveillance community is encouraged to identify opportunities to develop and expand its use in injury prevention and control. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Development of a Suite of Analytical Tools for Energy and Water Infrastructure Knowledge Discovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morton, A.; Piburn, J.; Stewart, R.; Chandola, V.

2017-12-01

Energy and water generation and delivery systems are inherently interconnected. With demand for energy growing, the energy sector is experiencing increasing competition for water. With increasing population and changing environmental, socioeconomic, and demographic scenarios, new technology and investment decisions must be made for optimized and sustainable energy-water resource management. This also requires novel scientific insights into the complex interdependencies of energy-water infrastructures across multiple space and time scales. To address this need, we've developed a suite of analytical tools to support an integrated data driven modeling, analysis, and visualization capability for understanding, designing, and developing efficient local and regional practices related to the energy-water nexus. This work reviews the analytical capabilities available along with a series of case studies designed to demonstrate the potential of these tools for illuminating energy-water nexus solutions and supporting strategic (federal) policy decisions.

Legal and Constitutional Problems of Public Support for Nonpublic Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whelan, Charles M.; Freund, Paul A.

Two authors analyze the problems facing aid to nonpublic school education and review relevant court decisions, emphasizing the latest Supreme Court decisions on the subject. Charles M. Whelan provides an analytical framework for determining the constitutionality of various assistance forms. He suggests that each program should be submitted to…

Decision making in prioritization of required operational capabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreeva, P.; Karev, M.; Kovacheva, Ts.

2015-10-01

The paper describes an expert heuristic approach to prioritization of required operational capabilities in the field of defense. Based on expert assessment and by application of the method of Analytical Hierarchical Process, a methodology for their prioritization has been developed. It has been applied to practical simulation decision making games.

An analytical framework to assist decision makers in the use of forest ecosystem model predictions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The predictions of most terrestrial ecosystem models originate from deterministic simulations. Relatively few uncertainty evaluation exercises in model outputs are performed by either model developers or users. This issue has important consequences for decision makers who rely on models to develop n...

Revisiting the Psychology of Intelligence Analysis: From Rational Actors to Adaptive Thinkers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Puvathingal, Bess J.; Hantula, Donald A.

2012-01-01

Intelligence analysis is a decision-making process rife with ambiguous, conflicting, irrelevant, important, and excessive information. The U.S. Intelligence Community is primed for psychology to lend its voice to the "analytic transformation" movement aimed at improving the quality of intelligence analysis. Traditional judgment and decision making…

A Hierarchical Analysis of Bridge Decision Makers; the Role of New Technology Adoption in the Timber Bridge Market: Special Project Fiscal Year 1992

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-08-01

Bridge design engineers and local highway officials make bridge replacement decsions across the U.S. The Analytical Hierarchical Process was used to characterize the bridge material selection decisions of these individuals. State Departments of Trans...

Exascale computing and big data

DOE PAGES

Reed, Daniel A.; Dongarra, Jack

2015-06-25

Scientific discovery and engineering innovation requires unifying traditionally separated high-performance computing and big data analytics. The tools and cultures of high-performance computing and big data analytics have diverged, to the detriment of both; unification is essential to address a spectrum of major research domains. The challenges of scale tax our ability to transmit data, compute complicated functions on that data, or store a substantial part of it; new approaches are required to meet these challenges. Finally, the international nature of science demands further development of advanced computer architectures and global standards for processing data, even as international competition complicates themore » openness of the scientific process.« less

Exascale computing and big data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reed, Daniel A.; Dongarra, Jack

Scientific discovery and engineering innovation requires unifying traditionally separated high-performance computing and big data analytics. The tools and cultures of high-performance computing and big data analytics have diverged, to the detriment of both; unification is essential to address a spectrum of major research domains. The challenges of scale tax our ability to transmit data, compute complicated functions on that data, or store a substantial part of it; new approaches are required to meet these challenges. Finally, the international nature of science demands further development of advanced computer architectures and global standards for processing data, even as international competition complicates themore » openness of the scientific process.« less

Digital Analytics in Professional Work and Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edwards, Richard; Fenwick, Tara

2016-01-01

In a wide range of fields, professional practice is being transformed by the increasing influence of digital analytics: the massive volumes of big data, and software algorithms that are collecting, comparing and calculating that data to make predictions and even decisions. Researchers in a number of social sciences have been calling attention to…

Modeling Choice Under Uncertainty in Military Systems Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-11-01

operators rather than fuzzy operators. This is suggested for further research. 4.3 ANALYTIC HIERARCHICAL PROCESS ( AHP ) In AHP , objectives, functions and...14 4.1 IMPRECISELY SPECIFIED MULTIPLE A’ITRIBUTE UTILITY THEORY... 14 4.2 FUZZY DECISION ANALYSIS...14 4.3 ANALYTIC HIERARCHICAL PROCESS ( AHP ) ................................... 14 4.4 SUBJECTIVE TRANSFER FUNCTION APPROACH

Optimizing an Immersion ESL Curriculum Using Analytic Hierarchy Process

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tang, Hui-Wen Vivian

2011-01-01

The main purpose of this study is to fill a substantial knowledge gap regarding reaching a uniform group decision in English curriculum design and planning. A comprehensive content-based course criterion model extracted from existing literature and expert opinions was developed. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was used to identify the relative…

Random Forest as a Predictive Analytics Alternative to Regression in Institutional Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

He, Lingjun; Levine, Richard A.; Fan, Juanjuan; Beemer, Joshua; Stronach, Jeanne

2018-01-01

In institutional research, modern data mining approaches are seldom considered to address predictive analytics problems. The goal of this paper is to highlight the advantages of tree-based machine learning algorithms over classic (logistic) regression methods for data-informed decision making in higher education problems, and stress the success of…

The European Gender Equality Index: Conceptual and Analytical Issues

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bericat, Eduardo

2012-01-01

This article presents a composite indicator designed to measure and compare existing structural gender equality in the countries of the European Union. The construction of an index is always a complex task which requires making a great many important conceptual, analytical and empirical decisions. This complexity explains the wide variety of…

Understanding Customer Product Choices: A Case Study Using the Analytical Hierarchy Process

Treesearch

Robert L. Smith; Robert J. Bush; Daniel L. Schmoldt

1996-01-01

The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used to characterize the bridge material selection decisions of highway officials across the United States. Understanding product choices by utilizing the AHP allowed us to develop strategies for increasing the use of timber in bridge construction. State Department of Transportation engineers, private consulting engineers, and...

What REALLY Works: Optimizing Classroom Discussions to Promote Comprehension and Critical-Analytic Thinking

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murphy, P. Karen; Firetto, Carla M.; Wei, Liwei; Li, Mengyi; Croninger, Rachel M. V.

2016-01-01

Many American students struggle to perform even basic comprehension of text, such as locating information, determining the main idea, or supporting details of a story. Even more students are inadequately prepared to complete more complex tasks, such as critically or analytically interpreting information in text or making reasoned decisions from…

APPLICATION OF THE ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS TO COMPARE ALTERNATIVES FOR THE LONG-TERM MANAGEMENT OF SURPLUS MERCURY

EPA Science Inventory

This paper describes a systematic method for comparing options for the long-term management of surplus elemental mercury in the U.S., using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as embodied in commercially available Expert Choice software. A limited scope multi-criteria decision-a...

Institutional Analytics: A Response to the Pressures of Academic Capitalism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Keefe, Molly Eleanor

2017-01-01

The higher education sector today faces an environment unlike any it has seen before. Serving a wide variety of internal and external stakeholders and facing diverse and fast-changing economic, social, and political pressures, universities can benefit from corporate-like approaches such as the use of analytics to inform strategic decision-making…

Teaching Social Media Analytics: An Assessment Based on Natural Disaster Postings

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goh, Tiong T.; Sun, Pei-Chen

2015-01-01

Unstructured data in social media is as part of the "big data" spectrum. Unstructured data in Social media can provide useful insights into social phenomena and citizen opinions, both of which are critical to government policy and businesses decisions. Teachers of business intelligence and analytics commonly use quantitative data from…

[Cognitive errors in diagnostic decision making].

PubMed

Gäbler, Martin

2017-10-01

Approximately 10-15% of our diagnostic decisions are faulty and may lead to unfavorable and dangerous outcomes, which could be avoided. These diagnostic errors are mainly caused by cognitive biases in the diagnostic reasoning process.Our medical diagnostic decision-making is based on intuitive "System 1" and analytical "System 2" diagnostic decision-making and can be deviated by unconscious cognitive biases.These deviations can be positively influenced on a systemic and an individual level. For the individual, metacognition (internal withdrawal from the decision-making process) and debiasing strategies, such as verification, falsification and rule out worst-case scenarios, can lead to improved diagnostic decisions making.

Analytical control test plan and microbiological methods for the water recovery test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Traweek, M. S. (Editor); Tatara, J. D. (Editor)

1994-01-01

Qualitative and quantitative laboratory results are important to the decision-making process. In some cases, they may represent the only basis for deciding between two or more given options or processes. Therefore, it is essential that handling of laboratory samples and analytical operations employed are performed at a deliberate level of conscientious effort. Reporting erroneous results can lead to faulty interpretations and result in misinformed decisions. This document provides analytical control specifications which will govern future test procedures related to all Water Recovery Test (WRT) Phase 3 activities to be conducted at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Marshall Space Flight Center (NASA/MSFC). This document addresses the process which will be used to verify analytical data generated throughout the test period, and to identify responsibilities of key personnel and participating laboratories, the chains of communication to be followed, and ensure that approved methodology and procedures are used during WRT activities. This document does not outline specifics, but provides a minimum guideline by which sampling protocols, analysis methodologies, test site operations, and laboratory operations should be developed.

Potential of Cognitive Computing and Cognitive Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noor, Ahmed K.

2015-01-01

Cognitive computing and cognitive technologies are game changers for future engineering systems, as well as for engineering practice and training. They are major drivers for knowledge automation work, and the creation of cognitive products with higher levels of intelligence than current smart products. This paper gives a brief review of cognitive computing and some of the cognitive engineering systems activities. The potential of cognitive technologies is outlined, along with a brief description of future cognitive environments, incorporating cognitive assistants - specialized proactive intelligent software agents designed to follow and interact with humans and other cognitive assistants across the environments. The cognitive assistants engage, individually or collectively, with humans through a combination of adaptive multimodal interfaces, and advanced visualization and navigation techniques. The realization of future cognitive environments requires the development of a cognitive innovation ecosystem for the engineering workforce. The continuously expanding major components of the ecosystem include integrated knowledge discovery and exploitation facilities (incorporating predictive and prescriptive big data analytics); novel cognitive modeling and visual simulation facilities; cognitive multimodal interfaces; and cognitive mobile and wearable devices. The ecosystem will provide timely, engaging, personalized / collaborative, learning and effective decision making. It will stimulate creativity and innovation, and prepare the participants to work in future cognitive enterprises and develop new cognitive products of increasing complexity. http://www.aee.odu.edu/cognitivecomp

Physician sex and other factors associated with type of breast cancer surgery in older women.

PubMed

Cyran, E M; Crane, L A; Palmer, L

2001-02-01

Physician-related factors as well as patient characteristics may explain why women aged 65 years or older with early-stage breast cancer undergo lumpectomy less often than younger women, despite National Institutes of Health recommendations favoring lumpectomy over mastectomy. A descriptive and analytical retrospective computer-assisted telephone survey. A population-based random sample of breast cancer survivors in Colorado, identified from the Colorado Central Cancer Registry. Women aged 65 to 84 years when diagnosed as having stage I or II breast cancer, treated 1 to 6 years previously with mastectomy or lumpectomy, and without recurrence or second primary cancers. Among women contacted, 58% participated. Results of 198 interviews are reported. Survey questions included patient decision-making participation and physician recommendations, sources and amount of treatment information provided by physicians, physician characteristics, and patient surgery preferences and demographic characteristics. A multivariate logistic regression model identified factors independently associated with lumpectomy. Lumpectomy was strongly associated with higher patient education, female physician sex, patient age 75 years or older, and amount of physician-provided information. The number of physician-provided information sources was associated with surgery explanations, and female physicians provided more sources of information. A physician decision or recommendation for surgery type was reported by 61% of women, of whom 93% underwent the recommended procedure. A subset of patients (13%) reported deferring the surgery decision to someone else. These results suggest that better-educated and better-informed older women are more likely to undergo lumpectomy, and that physicians may influence breast cancer patients' decisions about surgery type.

Lessons of War: Turning Data Into Decisions.

PubMed

Forsberg, Jonathan A; Potter, Benjamin K; Wagner, Matthew B; Vickers, Andrew; Dente, Christopher J; Kirk, Allan D; Elster, Eric A

2015-09-01

Recent conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq produced a substantial number of critically wounded service-members. We collected biomarker and clinical information from 73 patients who sustained 116 life-threatening combat wounds, and sought to determine if the data could be used to predict the likelihood of wound failure. From each patient, we collected clinical information, serum, wound effluent, and tissue prior to and at each surgical débridement. Inflammatory cytokines were quantified in both the serum and effluent, as were gene expression targets. The primary outcome was successful wound healing. Computer intensive methods were used to derive prognostic models that were internally validated using target shuffling and cross-validation methods. A second cohort of eighteen critically injured civilian patients was evaluated to determine if similar inflammatory responses were observed. The best-performing models enhanced clinical observation with biomarker data from the serum and wound effluent, an indicator that systemic inflammatory conditions contribute to local wound failure. A Random Forest model containing ten variables demonstrated the highest accuracy (AUC 0.79). Decision Curve Analysis indicated that the use of this model would improve clinical outcomes and reduce unnecessary surgical procedures. Civilian trauma patients demonstrated similar inflammatory responses and an equivalent wound failure rate, indicating that the model may be generalizable to civilian settings. Using advanced analytics, we successfully codified clinical and biomarker data from combat patients into a potentially generalizable decision support tool. Analysis of inflammatory data from critically ill patients with acute injury may inform decision-making to improve clinical outcomes and reduce healthcare costs. United States Department of Defense Health Programs.

Reports of the AAAI 2009 Spring Symposia: Technosocial Predictive Analytics.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sanfilippo, Antonio P.

2009-10-01

The Technosocial Predictive Analytics AAAI symposium was held at Stanford University, Stanford, CA, March 23-25, 2009. The goal of this symposium was to explore new methods for anticipatory analytical thinking that provide decision advantage through the integration of human and physical models. Special attention was also placed on how to leverage supporting disciplines to (a) facilitate the achievement of knowledge inputs, (b) improve the user experience, and (c) foster social intelligence through collaborative/competitive work.

Incorporation of RAM techniques into simulation modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, S. C., Jr.; Haire, M. J.; Schryver, J. C.

1995-01-01

This work concludes that reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM) analytical techniques can be incorporated into computer network simulation modeling to yield an important new analytical tool. This paper describes the incorporation of failure and repair information into network simulation to build a stochastic computer model to represent the RAM Performance of two vehicles being developed for the US Army: The Advanced Field Artillery System (AFAS) and the Future Armored Resupply Vehicle (FARV). The AFAS is the US Army's next generation self-propelled cannon artillery system. The FARV is a resupply vehicle for the AFAS. Both vehicles utilize automation technologies to improve the operational performance of the vehicles and reduce manpower. The network simulation model used in this work is task based. The model programmed in this application requirements a typical battle mission and the failures and repairs that occur during that battle. Each task that the FARV performs--upload, travel to the AFAS, refuel, perform tactical/survivability moves, return to logistic resupply, etc.--is modeled. Such a model reproduces a model reproduces operational phenomena (e.g., failures and repairs) that are likely to occur in actual performance. Simulation tasks are modeled as discrete chronological steps; after the completion of each task decisions are programmed that determine the next path to be followed. The result is a complex logic diagram or network. The network simulation model is developed within a hierarchy of vehicle systems, subsystems, and equipment and includes failure management subnetworks. RAM information and other performance measures are collected which have impact on design requirements. Design changes are evaluated through 'what if' questions, sensitivity studies, and battle scenario changes.

Computer modeling of human decision making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gevarter, William B.

1991-01-01

Models of human decision making are reviewed. Models which treat just the cognitive aspects of human behavior are included as well as models which include motivation. Both models which have associated computer programs, and those that do not, are considered. Since flow diagrams, that assist in constructing computer simulation of such models, were not generally available, such diagrams were constructed and are presented. The result provides a rich source of information, which can aid in construction of more realistic future simulations of human decision making.

Reducing the framing effect in older and younger adults by encouraging analytic processing.

PubMed

Thomas, Ayanna K; Millar, Peter R

2012-03-01

The present study explored whether the framing effect could be reduced in older and younger adults using techniques that influenced the accessibility of information relevant to the decision-making processing. Accessibility was manipulated indirectly in Experiment 1 by having participants engage in concurrent tasks, and directly in Experiment 2, through an instructions manipulation that required participants to maintain a goal of analytic processing throughout the experimental trial. We tested 120 older and 120 younger adults in Experiment 1. Participants completed 28 decision trials while concurrently either performing a probability calculation task or a memory task. In Experiment 2, we tested 136 older and 136 younger adults. Participants completed 48 decision trials after either having been instructed to "think like a scientist" or base decisions on "gut reactions." Results demonstrated that the framing effect was reduced in older and younger adults in the probability calculation task in Experiment 1 and under the "think like a scientist" instructions manipulation in Experiment 2. These results suggest that when information relevant to unbiased decision making was made more accessible, both older and younger adults were able to reduce susceptibility to the framing effect.

Application of stochastic multiattribute analysis to assessment of single walled carbon nanotube synthesis processes.

PubMed

Canis, Laure; Linkov, Igor; Seager, Thomas P

2010-11-15

The unprecedented uncertainty associated with engineered nanomaterials greatly expands the need for research regarding their potential environmental consequences. However, decision-makers such as regulatory agencies, product developers, or other nanotechnology stakeholders may not find the results of such research directly informative of decisions intended to mitigate environmental risks. To help interpret research findings and prioritize new research needs, there is an acute need for structured decision-analytic aids that are operable in a context of extraordinary uncertainty. Whereas existing stochastic decision-analytic techniques explore uncertainty only in decision-maker preference information, this paper extends model uncertainty to technology performance. As an illustrative example, the framework is applied to the case of single-wall carbon nanotubes. Four different synthesis processes (arc, high pressure carbon monoxide, chemical vapor deposition, and laser) are compared based on five salient performance criteria. A probabilistic rank ordering of preferred processes is determined using outranking normalization and a linear-weighted sum for different weighting scenarios including completely unknown weights and four fixed-weight sets representing hypothetical stakeholder views. No single process pathway dominates under all weight scenarios, but it is likely that some inferior process technologies could be identified as low priorities for further research.

Phase transition in the countdown problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lacasa, Lucas; Luque, Bartolo

2012-07-01

We present a combinatorial decision problem, inspired by the celebrated quiz show called Countdown, that involves the computation of a given target number T from a set of k randomly chosen integers along with a set of arithmetic operations. We find that the probability of winning the game evidences a threshold phenomenon that can be understood in the terms of an algorithmic phase transition as a function of the set size k. Numerical simulations show that such probability sharply transitions from zero to one at some critical value of the control parameter, hence separating the algorithm's parameter space in different phases. We also find that the system is maximally efficient close to the critical point. We derive analytical expressions that match the numerical results for finite size and permit us to extrapolate the behavior in the thermodynamic limit.

DXplain on the Internet.

PubMed

Barnett, G O; Famiglietti, K T; Kim, R J; Hoffer, E P; Feldman, M J

1998-01-01

DXplain, a computer-based medical education, reference and decision support system has been used by thousands of physicians and medical students on stand-alone systems and over communications networks. For the past two years, we have made DXplain available over the Internet in order to provide DXplain's knowledge and analytical capabilities as a resource to other applications within Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) and at outside institutions. We describe and provide the user experience with two different protocols through which users can access DXplain through the World Wide Web (WWW). The first allows the user to have direct interaction with all the functionality of DXplain where the MGH server controls the interaction and the mode of presentation. In the second mode, the MGH server provides the DXplain functionality as a series of services, which can be called independently by the user application program.

Analysis of SI models with multiple interacting populations using subpopulations.

PubMed

Thomas, Evelyn K; Gurski, Katharine F; Hoffman, Kathleen A

2015-02-01

Computing endemic equilibria and basic reproductive numbers for systems of differential equations describing epidemiological systems with multiple connections between subpopulations is often algebraically intractable. We present an alternative method which deconstructs the larger system into smaller subsystems and captures the interactions between the smaller systems as external forces using an approximate model. We bound the basic reproductive numbers of the full system in terms of the basic reproductive numbers of the smaller systems and use the alternate model to provide approximations for the endemic equilibrium. In addition to creating algebraically tractable reproductive numbers and endemic equilibria, we can demonstrate the influence of the interactions between subpopulations on the basic reproductive number of the full system. The focus of this paper is to provide analytical tools to help guide public health decisions with limited intervention resources.

Feature Geo Analytics and Big Data Processing: Hybrid Approaches for Earth Science and Real-Time Decision Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, D. J.; Raad, M.; Hoel, E.; Park, M.; Mollenkopf, A.; Trujillo, R.

2016-12-01

Introduced is a new approach for processing spatiotemporal big data by leveraging distributed analytics and storage. A suite of temporally-aware analysis tools summarizes data nearby or within variable windows, aggregates points (e.g., for various sensor observations or vessel positions), reconstructs time-enabled points into tracks (e.g., for mapping and visualizing storm tracks), joins features (e.g., to find associations between features based on attributes, spatial relationships, temporal relationships or all three simultaneously), calculates point densities, finds hot spots (e.g., in species distributions), and creates space-time slices and cubes (e.g., in microweather applications with temperature, humidity, and pressure, or within human mobility studies). These "feature geo analytics" tools run in both batch and streaming spatial analysis mode as distributed computations across a cluster of servers on typical "big" data sets, where static data exist in traditional geospatial formats (e.g., shapefile) locally on a disk or file share, attached as static spatiotemporal big data stores, or streamed in near-real-time. In other words, the approach registers large datasets or data stores with ArcGIS Server, then distributes analysis across a cluster of machines for parallel processing. Several brief use cases will be highlighted based on a 16-node server cluster at 14 Gb RAM per node, allowing, for example, the buffering of over 8 million points or thousands of polygons in 1 minute. The approach is "hybrid" in that ArcGIS Server integrates open-source big data frameworks such as Apache Hadoop and Apache Spark on the cluster in order to run the analytics. In addition, the user may devise and connect custom open-source interfaces and tools developed in Python or Python Notebooks; the common denominator being the familiar REST API.

42 CFR 412.278 - Administrator's review.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... or computational errors, or to correct the decision if the evidence that was considered in making the... discretion, may amend the decision to correct mathematical or computational errors, or to correct the...

42 CFR 412.278 - Administrator's review.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... or computational errors, or to correct the decision if the evidence that was considered in making the... discretion, may amend the decision to correct mathematical or computational errors, or to correct the...

42 CFR 412.278 - Administrator's review.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... or computational errors, or to correct the decision if the evidence that was considered in making the... discretion, may amend the decision to correct mathematical or computational errors, or to correct the...

42 CFR 412.278 - Administrator's review.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... or computational errors, or to correct the decision if the evidence that was considered in making the... discretion, may amend the decision to correct mathematical or computational errors, or to correct the...

Of possible cheminformatics futures.

PubMed

Oprea, Tudor I; Taboureau, Olivier; Bologa, Cristian G

2012-01-01

For over a decade, cheminformatics has contributed to a wide array of scientific tasks from analytical chemistry and biochemistry to pharmacology and drug discovery; and although its contributions to decision making are recognized, the challenge is how it would contribute to faster development of novel, better products. Here we address the future of cheminformatics with primary focus on innovation. Cheminformatics developers often need to choose between "mainstream" (i.e., accepted, expected) and novel, leading-edge tools, with an increasing trend for open science. Possible futures for cheminformatics include the worst case scenario (lack of funding, no creative usage), as well as the best case scenario (complete integration, from systems biology to virtual physiology). As "-omics" technologies advance, and computer hardware improves, compounds will no longer be profiled at the molecular level, but also in terms of genetic and clinical effects. Among potentially novel tools, we anticipate machine learning models based on free text processing, an increased performance in environmental cheminformatics, significant decision-making support, as well as the emergence of robot scientists conducting automated drug discovery research. Furthermore, cheminformatics is anticipated to expand the frontiers of knowledge and evolve in an open-ended, extensible manner, allowing us to explore multiple research scenarios in order to avoid epistemological "local information minimum trap".

Economic Value of Dispensing Home-Based Preoperative Chlorhexidine Bathing Cloths to Prevent Surgical Site Infection

PubMed Central

Bailey, Rachel R.; Stuckey, Dianna R.; Norman, Bryan A.; Duggan, Andrew P.; Bacon, Kristina M.; Connor, Diana L.; Lee, Ingi; Muder, Robert R.; Lee, Bruce Y.

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVE To estimate the economic value of dispensing preoperative home-based chlorhexidine bathing cloth kits to orthopedic patients to prevent surgical site infection (SSI). METHODS A stochastic decision-analytic computer simulation model was developed from the hospital’s perspective depicting the decision of whether to dispense the kits preoperatively to orthopedic patients. We varied patient age, cloth cost, SSI-attributable excess length of stay, cost per bed-day, patient compliance with the regimen, and cloth antimicrobial efficacy to determine which variables were the most significant drivers of the model’s outcomes. RESULTS When all other variables remained at baseline and cloth efficacy was at least 50%, patient compliance only had to be half of baseline (baseline mean, 15.3%; range, 8.23%–20.0%) for chlorhexidine cloths to remain the dominant strategy (ie, less costly and providing better health outcomes). When cloth efficacy fell to 10%, 1.5 times the baseline bathing compliance also afforded dominance of the preoperative bath. CONCLUSIONS The results of our study favor the routine distribution of bathing kits. Even with low patient compliance and cloth efficacy values, distribution of bathing kits is an economically beneficial strategy for the prevention of SSI. PMID:21515977

Machine learning and predictive data analytics enabling metrology and process control in IC fabrication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rana, Narender; Zhang, Yunlin; Wall, Donald; Dirahoui, Bachir; Bailey, Todd C.

2015-03-01

Integrate circuit (IC) technology is going through multiple changes in terms of patterning techniques (multiple patterning, EUV and DSA), device architectures (FinFET, nanowire, graphene) and patterning scale (few nanometers). These changes require tight controls on processes and measurements to achieve the required device performance, and challenge the metrology and process control in terms of capability and quality. Multivariate data with complex nonlinear trends and correlations generally cannot be described well by mathematical or parametric models but can be relatively easily learned by computing machines and used to predict or extrapolate. This paper introduces the predictive metrology approach which has been applied to three different applications. Machine learning and predictive analytics have been leveraged to accurately predict dimensions of EUV resist patterns down to 18 nm half pitch leveraging resist shrinkage patterns. These patterns could not be directly and accurately measured due to metrology tool limitations. Machine learning has also been applied to predict the electrical performance early in the process pipeline for deep trench capacitance and metal line resistance. As the wafer goes through various processes its associated cost multiplies. It may take days to weeks to get the electrical performance readout. Predicting the electrical performance early on can be very valuable in enabling timely actionable decision such as rework, scrap, feedforward, feedback predicted information or information derived from prediction to improve or monitor processes. This paper provides a general overview of machine learning and advanced analytics application in the advanced semiconductor development and manufacturing.

Imaging and Analytics: The changing face of Medical Imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foo, Thomas

There have been significant technological advances in imaging capability over the past 40 years. Medical imaging capabilities have developed rapidly, along with technology development in computational processing speed and miniaturization. Moving to all-digital, the number of images that are acquired in a routine clinical examination has increased dramatically from under 50 images in the early days of CT and MRI to more than 500-1000 images today. The staggering number of images that are routinely acquired poses significant challenges for clinicians to interpret the data and to correctly identify the clinical problem. Although the time provided to render a clinical finding has not substantially changed, the amount of data available for interpretation has grown exponentially. In addition, the image quality (spatial resolution) and information content (physiologically-dependent image contrast) has also increased significantly with advances in medical imaging technology. On its current trajectory, medical imaging in the traditional sense is unsustainable. To assist in filtering and extracting the most relevant data elements from medical imaging, image analytics will have a much larger role. Automated image segmentation, generation of parametric image maps, and clinical decision support tools will be needed and developed apace to allow the clinician to manage, extract and utilize only the information that will help improve diagnostic accuracy and sensitivity. As medical imaging devices continue to improve in spatial resolution, functional and anatomical information content, image/data analytics will be more ubiquitous and integral to medical imaging capability.

Rethinking Visual Analytics for Streaming Data Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crouser, R. Jordan; Franklin, Lyndsey; Cook, Kris

In the age of data science, the use of interactive information visualization techniques has become increasingly ubiquitous. From online scientific journals to the New York Times graphics desk, the utility of interactive visualization for both storytelling and analysis has become ever more apparent. As these techniques have become more readily accessible, the appeal of combining interactive visualization with computational analysis continues to grow. Arising out of a need for scalable, human-driven analysis, primary objective of visual analytics systems is to capitalize on the complementary strengths of human and machine analysis, using interactive visualization as a medium for communication between themore » two. These systems leverage developments from the fields of information visualization, computer graphics, machine learning, and human-computer interaction to support insight generation in areas where purely computational analyses fall short. Over the past decade, visual analytics systems have generated remarkable advances in many historically challenging analytical contexts. These include areas such as modeling political systems [Crouser et al. 2012], detecting financial fraud [Chang et al. 2008], and cybersecurity [Harrison et al. 2012]. In each of these contexts, domain expertise and human intuition is a necessary component of the analysis. This intuition is essential to building trust in the analytical products, as well as supporting the translation of evidence into actionable insight. In addition, each of these examples also highlights the need for scalable analysis. In each case, it is infeasible for a human analyst to manually assess the raw information unaided, and the communication overhead to divide the task between a large number of analysts makes simple parallelism intractable. Regardless of the domain, visual analytics tools strive to optimize the allocation of human analytical resources, and to streamline the sensemaking process on data that is massive, complex, incomplete, and uncertain in scenarios requiring human judgment.« less

Clinical decision-making and secondary findings in systems medicine.

PubMed

Fischer, T; Brothers, K B; Erdmann, P; Langanke, M

2016-05-21

Systems medicine is the name for an assemblage of scientific strategies and practices that include bioinformatics approaches to human biology (especially systems biology); "big data" statistical analysis; and medical informatics tools. Whereas personalized and precision medicine involve similar analytical methods applied to genomic and medical record data, systems medicine draws on these as well as other sources of data. Given this distinction, the clinical translation of systems medicine poses a number of important ethical and epistemological challenges for researchers working to generate systems medicine knowledge and clinicians working to apply it. This article focuses on three key challenges: First, we will discuss the conflicts in decision-making that can arise when healthcare providers committed to principles of experimental medicine or evidence-based medicine encounter individualized recommendations derived from computer algorithms. We will explore in particular whether controlled experiments, such as comparative effectiveness trials, should mediate the translation of systems medicine, or if instead individualized findings generated through "big data" approaches can be applied directly in clinical decision-making. Second, we will examine the case of the Riyadh Intensive Care Program Mortality Prediction Algorithm, pejoratively referred to as the "death computer," to demonstrate the ethical challenges that can arise when big-data-driven scoring systems are applied in clinical contexts. We argue that the uncritical use of predictive clinical algorithms, including those envisioned for systems medicine, challenge basic understandings of the doctor-patient relationship. Third, we will build on the recent discourse on secondary findings in genomics and imaging to draw attention to the important implications of secondary findings derived from the joint analysis of data from diverse sources, including data recorded by patients in an attempt to realize their "quantified self." This paper examines possible ethical challenges that are likely to be raised as systems medicine to be translated into clinical medicine. These include the epistemological challenges for clinical decision-making, the use of scoring systems optimized by big data techniques and the risk that incidental and secondary findings will significantly increase. While some ethical implications remain still hypothetical we should use the opportunity to prospectively identify challenges to avoid making foreseeable mistakes when systems medicine inevitably arrives in routine care.

Deflection and Supporting Force Analysis of a Slender Beam under Combined Transverse and Tensile Axial Loads

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-05-01

force T > 0 case (this study) ............................................. 3 3.3 Nonlinear FEA solution for tension force T ≥ 0 case...6 3.4 Computed analytical and nonlinear FEA results...4.1 Analytical modal solution for tension force T = 0 case (textbook) ................................... 8 4.2 Computed nonlinear FEA results for

Measuring Students' Writing Ability on a Computer-Analytic Developmental Scale: An Exploratory Validity Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burdick, Hal; Swartz, Carl W.; Stenner, A. Jackson; Fitzgerald, Jill; Burdick, Don; Hanlon, Sean T.

2013-01-01

The purpose of the study was to explore the validity of a novel computer-analytic developmental scale, the Writing Ability Developmental Scale. On the whole, collective results supported the validity of the scale. It was sensitive to writing ability differences across grades and sensitive to within-grade variability as compared to human-rated…

A Response to "Measuring Students' Writing Ability on a Computer Analytic Developmental Scale: An Exploratory Validity Study"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reutzel, D. Ray; Mohr, Kathleen A. J.

2014-01-01

In this response to "Measuring Students' Writing Ability on a Computer Analytic Developmental Scale: An Exploratory Validity Study," the authors agree that assessments should seek parsimony in both theory and application wherever possible. Doing so allows maximal dissemination and implementation while minimizing costs. The Writing…

Toward Usable Interactive Analytics: Coupling Cognition and Computation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Endert, Alexander; North, Chris; Chang, Remco

Interactive analytics provide users a myriad of computational means to aid in extracting meaningful information from large and complex datasets. Much prior work focuses either on advancing the capabilities of machine-centric approaches by the data mining and machine learning communities, or human-driven methods by the visualization and CHI communities. However, these methods do not yet support a true human-machine symbiotic relationship where users and machines work together collaboratively and adapt to each other to advance an interactive analytic process. In this paper we discuss some of the inherent issues, outlining what we believe are the steps toward usable interactive analyticsmore » that will ultimately increase the effectiveness for both humans and computers to produce insights.« less

INTEGRATING DATA ANALYTICS AND SIMULATION METHODS TO SUPPORT MANUFACTURING DECISION MAKING

PubMed Central

Kibira, Deogratias; Hatim, Qais; Kumara, Soundar; Shao, Guodong

2017-01-01

Modern manufacturing systems are installed with smart devices such as sensors that monitor system performance and collect data to manage uncertainties in their operations. However, multiple parameters and variables affect system performance, making it impossible for a human to make informed decisions without systematic methodologies and tools. Further, the large volume and variety of streaming data collected is beyond simulation analysis alone. Simulation models are run with well-prepared data. Novel approaches, combining different methods, are needed to use this data for making guided decisions. This paper proposes a methodology whereby parameters that most affect system performance are extracted from the data using data analytics methods. These parameters are used to develop scenarios for simulation inputs; system optimizations are performed on simulation data outputs. A case study of a machine shop demonstrates the proposed methodology. This paper also reviews candidate standards for data collection, simulation, and systems interfaces. PMID:28690363

IT vendor selection model by using structural equation model & analytical hierarchy process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maitra, Sarit; Dominic, P. D. D.

2012-11-01

Selecting and evaluating the right vendors is imperative for an organization's global marketplace competitiveness. Improper selection and evaluation of potential vendors can dwarf an organization's supply chain performance. Numerous studies have demonstrated that firms consider multiple criteria when selecting key vendors. This research intends to develop a new hybrid model for vendor selection process with better decision making. The new proposed model provides a suitable tool for assisting decision makers and managers to make the right decisions and select the most suitable vendor. This paper proposes a Hybrid model based on Structural Equation Model (SEM) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for long-term strategic vendor selection problems. The five steps framework of the model has been designed after the thorough literature study. The proposed hybrid model will be applied using a real life case study to assess its effectiveness. In addition, What-if analysis technique will be used for model validation purpose.

Computing Platforms for Big Biological Data Analytics: Perspectives and Challenges.

PubMed

Yin, Zekun; Lan, Haidong; Tan, Guangming; Lu, Mian; Vasilakos, Athanasios V; Liu, Weiguo

2017-01-01

The last decade has witnessed an explosion in the amount of available biological sequence data, due to the rapid progress of high-throughput sequencing projects. However, the biological data amount is becoming so great that traditional data analysis platforms and methods can no longer meet the need to rapidly perform data analysis tasks in life sciences. As a result, both biologists and computer scientists are facing the challenge of gaining a profound insight into the deepest biological functions from big biological data. This in turn requires massive computational resources. Therefore, high performance computing (HPC) platforms are highly needed as well as efficient and scalable algorithms that can take advantage of these platforms. In this paper, we survey the state-of-the-art HPC platforms for big biological data analytics. We first list the characteristics of big biological data and popular computing platforms. Then we provide a taxonomy of different biological data analysis applications and a survey of the way they have been mapped onto various computing platforms. After that, we present a case study to compare the efficiency of different computing platforms for handling the classical biological sequence alignment problem. At last we discuss the open issues in big biological data analytics.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shankar, Arjun

Computer scientist Arjun Shankar is director of the Compute and Data Environment for Science (CADES), ORNL’s multidisciplinary big data computing center. CADES offers computing, networking and data analytics to facilitate workflows for both ORNL and external research projects.

Decision making and problem solving with computer assistance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kraiss, F.

1980-01-01

In modern guidance and control systems, the human as manager, supervisor, decision maker, problem solver and trouble shooter, often has to cope with a marginal mental workload. To improve this situation, computers should be used to reduce the operator from mental stress. This should not solely be done by increased automation, but by a reasonable sharing of tasks in a human-computer team, where the computer supports the human intelligence. Recent developments in this area are summarized. It is shown that interactive support of operator by intelligent computer is feasible during information evaluation, decision making and problem solving. The applied artificial intelligence algorithms comprehend pattern recognition and classification, adaptation and machine learning as well as dynamic and heuristic programming. Elementary examples are presented to explain basic principles.

Pest management in Douglas-fir seed orchards: a microcomputer decision method

Treesearch

James B. Hoy; Michael I. Haverty

1988-01-01

The computer program described provides a Douglas-fir seed orchard manager (user) with a quantitative method for making insect pest management decisions on a desk-top computer. The decision system uses site-specific information such as estimates of seed crop size, insect attack rates, insecticide efficacy and application costs, weather, and crop value. At sites where...

Decision Making and Reward in Frontal Cortex

PubMed Central

Kennerley, Steven W.; Walton, Mark E.

2011-01-01

Patients with damage to the prefrontal cortex (PFC)—especially the ventral and medial parts of PFC—often show a marked inability to make choices that meet their needs and goals. These decision-making impairments often reflect both a deficit in learning concerning the consequences of a choice, as well as deficits in the ability to adapt future choices based on experienced value of the current choice. Thus, areas of PFC must support some value computations that are necessary for optimal choice. However, recent frameworks of decision making have highlighted that optimal and adaptive decision making does not simply rest on a single computation, but a number of different value computations may be necessary. Using this framework as a guide, we summarize evidence from both lesion studies and single-neuron physiology for the representation of different value computations across PFC areas. PMID:21534649

The Design and Development of an Intelligent Planning Aid

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-07-01

reasons why widening the scope of TACPLAK’s applicability make sense. First# plan execution and monitoring (and the re-planning that then occurs) are...Orsssnu, contracting officer’s representative I», KKY voees o Decision Making Tactical Planning Taxonomy Problem Solving ii M ifrntitr *r MM* I...planning aid. It documents the development of a decision- making , planning, and decision-aiding analytical framework comprising a set of models, s generic

The impact of computer self-efficacy, computer anxiety, and perceived usability and acceptability on the efficacy of a decision support tool for colorectal cancer screening

PubMed Central

Lindblom, Katrina; Gregory, Tess; Flight, Ingrid H K; Zajac, Ian

2011-01-01

Objective This study investigated the efficacy of an internet-based personalized decision support (PDS) tool designed to aid in the decision to screen for colorectal cancer (CRC) using a fecal occult blood test. We tested whether the efficacy of the tool in influencing attitudes to screening was mediated by perceived usability and acceptability, and considered the role of computer self-efficacy and computer anxiety in these relationships. Methods Eighty-one participants aged 50–76 years worked through the on-line PDS tool and completed questionnaires on computer self-efficacy, computer anxiety, attitudes to and beliefs about CRC screening before and after exposure to the PDS, and perceived usability and acceptability of the tool. Results Repeated measures ANOVA found that PDS exposure led to a significant increase in knowledge about CRC and screening, and more positive attitudes to CRC screening as measured by factors from the Preventive Health Model. Perceived usability and acceptability of the PDS mediated changes in attitudes toward CRC screening (but not CRC knowledge), and computer self-efficacy and computer anxiety were significant predictors of individuals' perceptions of the tool. Conclusion Interventions designed to decrease computer anxiety, such as computer courses and internet training, may improve the acceptability of new health information technologies including internet-based decision support tools, increasing their impact on behavior change. PMID:21857024

In the Clouds: The Implications of Cloud Computing for Higher Education Information Technology Governance and Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dulaney, Malik H.

2013-01-01

Emerging technologies challenge the management of information technology in organizations. Paradigm changing technologies, such as cloud computing, have the ability to reverse the norms in organizational management, decision making, and information technology governance. This study explores the effects of cloud computing on information technology…

Making Informed Decisions: Management Issues Influencing Computers in the Classroom.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strickland, James

A number of noninstructional factors appear to determine the extent to which computers make a difference in writing instruction. Once computers have been purchased and installed, it is generally school administrators who make management decisions, often from an uninformed pedagogical orientation. Issues such as what hardware and software to buy,…

78 FR 39233 - Data Practices, Computer III Further Remand: BOC Provision of Enhanced Services

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-01

... additional information on the rulemaking process, see the SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION section of this document....702 of the Commission's rules and regulations (Computer II Final Decision), 77 FCC 2d 384 (1980... Commission's decision to lift structural separation in Computer III and the implementation of ONA. In light...

Computer-Assisted Diagnostic Decision Support: History, Challenges, and Possible Paths Forward

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Randolph A.

2009-01-01

This paper presents a brief history of computer-assisted diagnosis, including challenges and future directions. Some ideas presented in this article on computer-assisted diagnostic decision support systems (CDDSS) derive from prior work by the author and his colleagues (see list in Acknowledgments) on the INTERNIST-1 and QMR projects. References…

The Matsu Wheel: A Cloud-Based Framework for Efficient Analysis and Reanalysis of Earth Satellite Imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patterson, Maria T.; Anderson, Nicholas; Bennett, Collin; Bruggemann, Jacob; Grossman, Robert L.; Handy, Matthew; Ly, Vuong; Mandl, Daniel J.; Pederson, Shane; Pivarski, James;

Communication practices that encourage and constrain shared decision making in health-care encounters: Systematic review of conversation analytic research.

PubMed

Land, Victoria; Parry, Ruth; Seymour, Jane

2017-12-01

Shared decision making (SDM) is generally treated as good practice in health-care interactions. Conversation analytic research has yielded detailed findings about decision making in health-care encounters. To map decision making communication practices relevant to health-care outcomes in face-to-face interactions yielded by prior conversation analyses, and to examine their function in relation to SDM. We searched nine electronic databases (last search November 2016) and our own and other academics' collections. Published conversation analyses (no restriction on publication dates) using recordings of health-care encounters in English where the patient (and/or companion) was present and where the data and analysis focused on health/illness-related decision making. We extracted study characteristics, aims, findings relating to communication practices, how these functioned in relation to SDM, and internal/external validity issues. We synthesised findings aggregatively. Twenty-eight publications met the inclusion criteria. We sorted findings into 13 types of communication practices and organized these in relation to four elements of decision-making sequences: (i) broaching decision making; (ii) putting forward a course of action; (iii) committing or not (to the action put forward); and (iv) HCPs' responses to patients' resistance or withholding of commitment. Patients have limited opportunities to influence decision making. HCPs' practices may constrain or encourage this participation. Patients, companions and HCPs together treat and undertake decision making as shared, though to varying degrees. Even for non-negotiable treatment trajectories, the spirit of SDM can be invoked through practices that encourage participation (eg by bringing the patient towards shared understanding of the decision's rationale). © 2017 The Authors Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Antecedents and Consequences of Retirement Planning and Decision-Making: A Meta-Analysis and Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Topa, Gabriela; Moriano, Juan Antonio; Depolo, Marco; Alcover, Carlos-Maria; Morales, J. Francisco

2009-01-01

In this study, meta-analytic procedures were used to examine the relationships between retirement planning, retirement decision and their antecedent and consequences. Our review of the literature generated 341 independent samples obtained from 99 primary studies with 188,222 participants. A small effect size (ES) for antecedents of retirement…

A Data Analytical Framework for Improving Real-Time, Decision Support Systems in Healthcare

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yahav, Inbal

2010-01-01

In this dissertation we develop a framework that combines data mining, statistics and operations research methods for improving real-time decision support systems in healthcare. Our approach consists of three main concepts: data gathering and preprocessing, modeling, and deployment. We introduce the notion of offline and semi-offline modeling to…

Participative Decision Making in Schools: A Mediating-Moderating Analytical Framework for Understanding School and Teacher Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Somech, Anit

2010-01-01

The increasing emergence of participation in decision making (PDM) in schools reflects the widely shared belief that flatter management and decentralized authority structures carry the potential for promoting school effectiveness. However, the literature indicates a discrepancy between the intuitive appeal of PDM and empirical evidence in respect…

Understanding Career Decision Self-Efficacy: A Meta-Analytic Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Choi, Bo Young; Park, Heerak; Yang, Eunjoo; Lee, Seul Ki; Lee, Yedana; Lee, Sang Min

2012-01-01

This study used meta-analysis to investigate the relationships between career decision self-efficacy (CDSE) and its relevant variables. The authors aimed to integrate the mixed results reported by previous empirical studies and obtain a clearer understanding of CDSE's role within the framework of social cognitive career theory (SCCT). For purposes…

Performance Assessment in Serious Games: Compensating for the Effects of Randomness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Westera, Wim

2016-01-01

This paper is about performance assessment in serious games. We conceive serious gaming as a process of player-lead decision taking. Starting from combinatorics and item-response theory we provide an analytical model that makes explicit to what extent observed player performances (decisions) are blurred by chance processes (guessing behaviors). We…

Ontario Universities Statistical Compendium, 1970-90. Part A: Micro-Indicators.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Council of Ontario Universities, Toronto. Research Div.

This publication provides macro-indicators and complementary analyses and supporting data for use by policy and decision makers concerned with Ontario universities. These analytical tools are meant to unambiguously measure what is taking place in Canadian postsecondary education, and therefore, assist in focusing on what decisions need to be made.…

Effectiveness of a Case-Based Computer Program on Students' Ethical Decision Making.

PubMed

Park, Eun-Jun; Park, Mihyun

2015-11-01

The aim of this study was to test the effectiveness of a case-based computer program, using an integrative ethical decision-making model, on the ethical decision-making competency of nursing students in South Korea. This study used a pre- and posttest comparison design. Students in the intervention group used a computer program for case analysis assignments, whereas students in the standard group used a traditional paper assignment for case analysis. The findings showed that using the case-based computer program as a complementary tool for the ethics courses offered at the university enhanced students' ethical preparedness and satisfaction with the course. On the basis of the findings, it is recommended that nurse educators use a case-based computer program as a complementary self-study tool in ethics courses to supplement student learning without an increase in course hours, particularly in terms of analyzing ethics cases with dilemma scenarios and exercising ethical decision making. Copyright 2015, SLACK Incorporated.

Neural correlates and neural computations in posterior parietal cortex during perceptual decision-making

PubMed Central

Huk, Alexander C.; Meister, Miriam L. R.

2012-01-01

A recent line of work has found remarkable success in relating perceptual decision-making and the spiking activity in the macaque lateral intraparietal area (LIP). In this review, we focus on questions about the neural computations in LIP that are not answered by demonstrations of neural correlates of psychological processes. We highlight three areas of limitations in our current understanding of the precise neural computations that might underlie neural correlates of decisions: (1) empirical questions not yet answered by existing data; (2) implementation issues related to how neural circuits could actually implement the mechanisms suggested by both extracellular neurophysiology and psychophysics; and (3) ecological constraints related to the use of well-controlled laboratory tasks and whether they provide an accurate window on sensorimotor computation. These issues motivate the adoption of a more general “encoding-decoding framework” that will be fruitful for more detailed contemplation of how neural computations in LIP relate to the formation of perceptual decisions. PMID:23087623

Curriculum Analytics: Application of Social Network Analysis for Improving Strategic Curriculum Decision-Making in a Research-Intensive University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dawson, Shane; Hubball, Harry

2014-01-01

This paper provides insight into the use of curriculum analytics to enhance learning-centred curricula in diverse higher education contexts. Engagement in evidence-based practice to evaluate and monitor curricula is vital to the success and sustainability of efforts to reform undergraduate and graduate programs. Emerging technology-enabled inquiry…

The Challenges of Teaching Business Analytics: Finding Real Big Data for Business Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yap, Alexander Y.; Drye, Sherrie L.

2018-01-01

This research shares the challenges of bringing in real-world big business data into the classroom so students can experience how today's business decisions can improve with the strategic use of data analytics. Finding a true big data set that provides real world business transactions and operational data has been a challenge for academics…

Knowledge, Skills, and Abilities for Entry-Level Business Analytics Positions: A Multi-Method Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cegielski, Casey G.; Jones-Farmer, L. Allison

2016-01-01

It is impossible to deny the significant impact from the emergence of big data and business analytics on the fields of Information Technology, Quantitative Methods, and the Decision Sciences. Both industry and academia seek to hire talent in these areas with the hope of developing organizational competencies. This article describes a multi-method…

Using Data Mining for Predicting Relationships between Online Question Theme and Final Grade

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abdous, M'hammed; He, Wu; Yen, Cherng-Jyh

2012-01-01

As higher education diversifies its delivery modes, our ability to use the predictive and analytical power of educational data mining (EDM) to understand students' learning experiences is a critical step forward. The adoption of EDM by higher education as an analytical and decision making tool is offering new opportunities to exploit the untapped…

Exercises in molecular computing.

PubMed

Stojanovic, Milan N; Stefanovic, Darko; Rudchenko, Sergei

2014-06-17

CONSPECTUS: The successes of electronic digital logic have transformed every aspect of human life over the last half-century. The word "computer" now signifies a ubiquitous electronic device, rather than a human occupation. Yet evidently humans, large assemblies of molecules, can compute, and it has been a thrilling challenge to develop smaller, simpler, synthetic assemblies of molecules that can do useful computation. When we say that molecules compute, what we usually mean is that such molecules respond to certain inputs, for example, the presence or absence of other molecules, in a precisely defined but potentially complex fashion. The simplest way for a chemist to think about computing molecules is as sensors that can integrate the presence or absence of multiple analytes into a change in a single reporting property. Here we review several forms of molecular computing developed in our laboratories. When we began our work, combinatorial approaches to using DNA for computing were used to search for solutions to constraint satisfaction problems. We chose to work instead on logic circuits, building bottom-up from units based on catalytic nucleic acids, focusing on DNA secondary structures in the design of individual circuit elements, and reserving the combinatorial opportunities of DNA for the representation of multiple signals propagating in a large circuit. Such circuit design directly corresponds to the intuition about sensors transforming the detection of analytes into reporting properties. While this approach was unusual at the time, it has been adopted since by other groups working on biomolecular computing with different nucleic acid chemistries. We created logic gates by modularly combining deoxyribozymes (DNA-based enzymes cleaving or combining other oligonucleotides), in the role of reporting elements, with stem-loops as input detection elements. For instance, a deoxyribozyme that normally exhibits an oligonucleotide substrate recognition region is modified such that a stem-loop closes onto the substrate recognition region, making it unavailable for the substrate and thus rendering the deoxyribozyme inactive. But a conformational change can then be induced by an input oligonucleotide, complementary to the loop, to open the stem, allow the substrate to bind, and allow its cleavage to proceed, which is eventually reported via fluorescence. In this Account, several designs of this form are reviewed, along with their application in the construction of large circuits that exhibited complex logical and temporal relationships between the inputs and the outputs. Intelligent (in the sense of being capable of nontrivial information processing) theranostic (therapy + diagnostic) applications have always been the ultimate motivation for developing computing (i.e., decision-making) circuits, and we review our experiments with logic-gate elements bound to cell surfaces that evaluate the proximal presence of multiple markers on lymphocytes.

A Computational Model of Reasoning from the Clinical Literature

PubMed Central

Rennels, Glenn D.

1986-01-01

This paper explores the premise that a formalized representation of empirical studies can play a central role in computer-based decision support. The specific motivations underlying this research include the following propositions: 1. Reasoning from experimental evidence contained in the clinical literature is central to the decisions physicians make in patient care. 2. A computational model, based upon a declarative representation for published reports of clinical studies, can drive a computer program that selectively tailors knowledge of the clinical literature as it is applied to a particular case. 3. The development of such a computational model is an important first step toward filling a void in computer-based decision support systems. Furthermore, the model may help us better understand the general principles of reasoning from experimental evidence both in medicine and other domains. Roundsman is a developmental computer system which draws upon structured representations of the clinical literature in order to critique plans for the management of primary breast cancer. Roundsman is able to produce patient-specific analyses of breast cancer management options based on the 24 clinical studies currently encoded in its knowledge base. The Roundsman system is a first step in exploring how the computer can help to bring a critical analysis of the relevant literature to the physician, structured around a particular patient and treatment decision.