Impaired decision-making under risk in individuals with alcohol dependence

PubMed Central

Brevers, Damien; Bechara, Antoine; Cleeremans, Axel; Kornreich, Charles; Verbanck, Paul; Noël, Xavier

2014-01-01

Background Alcohol dependence is associated with poor decision-making under ambiguity, that is, when decisions are to be made in the absence of known probabilities of reward and loss. However, little is known regarding decisions made by individuals with alcohol dependence in the context of known probabilities (decision under risk). In this study, we investigated the relative contribution of these distinct aspects of decision making to alcohol dependence. Methods Thirty recently detoxified and sober asymptomatic alcohol-dependent individuals, and thirty healthy control participants were tested for decision-making under ambiguity (using the Iowa Gambling Task), and decision-making under-risk (using the Cups Task and Coin Flipping Task). We also tested their capacities for working memory storage (Digit-span Forward), and dual-tasking (Operation-span Task). Results Compared to healthy control participants, alcohol-dependent individuals made disadvantageous decisions on the Iowa Gambling Task, reflecting poor decisions under ambiguity. They also made more risky choices on the Cups and Coin Flipping Tasks reflecting poor decision-making under risk. In addition, alcohol-dependent participants showed some working memory impairments, as measured by the dual tasking, and the degree of this impairment correlated with high-risk decision-making, thus suggesting a relationship between processes sub-serving working memory and risky decisions. Conclusion These results suggest that alcohol dependent individuals are impaired in their ability to decide optimally in multiple facets of uncertainty (i.e., both risk and ambiguity), and that at least some aspects of these deficits are linked to poor working memory processes. PMID:24948198

Presenting health risk information in different formats: the effect on participants' cognitive and emotional evaluation and decisions.

PubMed

Timmermans, Daniëlle R M; Ockhuysen-Vermey, Caroline F; Henneman, Lidewij

2008-12-01

Effective communication of health risks plays an important role in enabling patients to make adequate decisions. There is little--though contradictory--evidence to indicate which format is most effective for communicating risks, and which risk format is preferred by counselees. In an experiment, subjects were presented health scenarios and risk information in different formats (percentages, frequencies, and population figures) and asked to evaluate the risks and make a decision based on these. Different risk formats had different effects on respondents' evaluation of the health risks presented. Contrary to our expectation, population figures were not evaluated as being the easiest format for all decision problems. Population figures were shown to have the biggest affective impact, and risks presented as population figures were also evaluated as significantly greater than the risks presented in other formats. The format of the presented risks influenced their decision in only one out of four decision-making situations, although in a second situation there was a similar trend. This study suggests that the risk format plays a role in the decision-making process, although it remains unclear which format is the most effective in terms of understanding. More experimental studies based on a theoretical analysis of the factors that promote effective risk communication are needed in the general population as well as in clinical settings with patients actually experiencing the risks and making the decisions.

Risk Communication in Special Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bull, Kay S.; Kimball, Sarah

This paper describes the application of a risk-based decision-making process in education and the use of risk communication with special education students and their parents. Risk-based decision making clarifies uncertainties inherent in a decision by examining the probability of a resulting harmful effect and the consequences of decisions made.…

Risk Stratification and Shared Decision Making for Colorectal Cancer Screening: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Schroy, Paul C; Duhovic, Emir; Chen, Clara A; Heeren, Timothy C; Lopez, William; Apodaca, Danielle L; Wong, John B

2016-05-01

Eliciting patient preferences within the context of shared decision making has been advocated for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, yet providers often fail to comply with patient preferences that differ from their own. To determine whether risk stratification for advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) influences provider willingness to comply with patient preferences when selecting a desired CRC screening option. Randomized controlled trial. Asymptomatic, average-risk patients due for CRC screening in an urban safety net health care setting. Patients were randomized 1:1 to a decision aid alone (n= 168) or decision aid plus risk assessment (n= 173) arm between September 2012 and September 2014. The primary outcome was concordance between patient preference and test ordered; secondary outcomes included patient satisfaction with the decision-making process, screening intentions, test completion rates, and provider satisfaction. Although providers perceived risk stratification to be useful in selecting an appropriate screening test for their average-risk patients, no significant differences in concordance were observed between the decision aid alone and decision aid plus risk assessment groups (88.1% v. 85.0%,P= 0.40) or high- and low-risk groups (84.5% v. 87.1%,P= 0.51). Concordance was highest for colonoscopy and relatively low for tests other than colonoscopy, regardless of study arm or risk group. Failure to comply with patient preferences was negatively associated with satisfaction with the decision-making process, screening intentions, and test completion rates. Single-institution setting; lack of provider education about the utility of risk stratification into their decision making. Providers perceived risk stratification to be useful in their decision making but often failed to comply with patient preferences for tests other than colonoscopy, even among those deemed to be at low risk of ACN. © The Author(s) 2016.

Whose Values? Whose Risk? Exploring Decision Making About Trial of Labor After Cesarean.

PubMed

Charles, Sonya; Wolf, Allison B

2018-06-01

In this article, we discuss decision making during labor and delivery, specifically focusing on decision making around offering women a trial of labor after cesarean section (TOLAC). Many have discussed how humans are notoriously bad at assessing risks and how we often distort the nature of various risks surrounding childbirth. We will build on this discussion by showing that physicians make decisions around TOLAC not only based on distortions of risk, but also based on personal values (i.e. what level of risk are you comfortable with or what types of risks are you willing to take) rather than medical data (or at least medical data alone). As a result of this, we will further suggest that the party who is best epistemically situated to make decisions about TOLAC is the woman herself.

Decision-making under risk in children, adolescents, and young adults.

PubMed

Paulsen, David J; Platt, Michael L; Huettel, Scott A; Brannon, Elizabeth M

2011-01-01

Adolescents often make risky and impulsive decisions. Such behavior has led to the common assumption that a dysfunction in risk-related decision-making peaks during this age. Differences in how risk has been defined across studies, however, make it difficult to draw conclusions about developmental changes in risky decision-making. Here, we developed a non-symbolic economic decision-making task that can be used across a wide age span and that uses coefficient of variation (CV) in reward as an index of risk. We found that young children showed the strongest preference for risky compared to sure bet options of equal expected value, adolescents were intermediate in their risk preference, and young adults showed the strongest risk aversion. Furthermore, children's preference for the risky option increased for larger CVs, while adolescents and young adults showed the opposite pattern, favoring the sure bet more often as CV increased. Finally, when faced with two gambles in a risk-return tradeoff, all three age groups exhibited a greater preference for the option with the lower risk and return as the disparity in risk between the two options increased. These findings demonstrate clear age-related differences in economic risk preferences that vary with choice set and risk. Importantly, adolescence appears to represent an intermediate decision-making phenotype along the transition from childhood to adulthood, rather than an age of heightened preference for economic risk.

On Risk: Risk and Decision Making in Military Combat and Training Environments

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-12-01

DECISION MAKING IN MILITARY COMBAT AND TRAINING ENVIRONMENTS by Matthew R. Myer Jason R. Lojka December 2012 Thesis Advisor...SUBTITLE ON RISK: RISK AND DECISION MAKING IN MILITARY COMBAT AND TRAINING ENVIRONMENTS 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Matthew R. Myer and Jason R...of the nation that has sent them abroad. It is paramount, therefore, that we utilize a decision process to reveal how emotions can affect our

Perception and communication of risk in decision making by persons with dementia.

PubMed

Stevenson, Mabel; Savage, Beverley; Taylor, Brian J

2017-01-01

Communication of risks must involve people with dementia meaningfully to ensure informed and inclusive decision-making processes. This qualitative study explored concepts of risk from the perspective of persons with dementia and their experiences of communicating risk with family members and professionals. Data was analysed using grounded theory. Seventeen people in Northern Ireland with mild-moderate dementia who had recently made a decision about their daily life or care involving consideration of risks were interviewed between November 2015 and November 2016. A wide range of actual or feared risks were identified relating to: daily activities; hobbies and socialising; mental health and medicines; and risks to and from others. 'Risk' often held emotional rather than probability connotations. Constructive communications to address issues were presented. Problem-solving models of both active and passive decision-making about risks were evident. Effective risk communication in informed decision-making processes about health and social care is discussed.

Leadership of risk decision making in a complex, technology organization: The deliberative decision making model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flaming, Susan C.

2007-12-01

The continuing saga of satellite technology development is as much a story of successful risk management as of innovative engineering. How do program leaders on complex, technology projects manage high stakes risks that threaten business success and satellite performance? This grounded theory study of risk decision making portrays decision leadership practices at one communication satellite company. Integrated product team (IPT) leaders of multi-million dollar programs were interviewed and observed to develop an extensive description of the leadership skills required to navigate organizational influences and drive challenging risk decisions to closure. Based on the study's findings the researcher proposes a new decision making model, Deliberative Decision Making, to describe the program leaders' cognitive and organizational leadership practices. This Deliberative Model extends the insights of prominent decision making models including the rational (or classical) and the naturalistic and qualifies claims made by bounded rationality theory. The Deliberative Model describes how leaders proactively engage resources to play a variety of decision leadership roles. The Model incorporates six distinct types of leadership decision activities, undertaken in varying sequence based on the challenges posed by specific risks. Novel features of the Deliberative Decision Model include: an inventory of leadership methods for managing task challenges, potential stakeholder bias and debates; four types of leadership meta-decisions that guide decision processes, and aligned organizational culture. Both supporting and constraining organizational influences were observed as leaders managed major risks, requiring active leadership on the most difficult decisions. Although the company's engineering culture emphasized the importance of data-based decisions, the uncertainties intrinsic to satellite risks required expert engineering judgment to be exercised throughout. An investigation into the co-variation of decision methods with uncertainty suggests that perceived risk severity may serve as a robust indicator for choices about decision practices. The Deliberative Decision processes incorporate multiple organizational and cultural controls as cross-checks to mitigate potential parochial bias of individuals, stakeholder groups, or leaders. Overall the Deliberative Decision framework describes how expert leadership practices, supportive organizational systems along with aligned cultural values and behavioral norms help leaders drive high stakes risk decisions to closure in this complex, advanced-technology setting.

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Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-27

..., ``Integrating Ecological Assessment and Decision-Making at EPA, 2011 RAF Ecological Assessment Action Plan... the EPA Risk Assessment Forum (RAF) document, ``Integrating Ecological Assessment and Decision-Making... Ecological Risk Assessment in Environmental Decision-Making'' (EPA-SAB-08-002), the EPA Risk Assessment Forum...

Decision-Making Under Risk in Children, Adolescents, and Young Adults

PubMed Central

Paulsen, David J.; Platt, Michael L.; Huettel, Scott A.; Brannon, Elizabeth M.

2011-01-01

Adolescents often make risky and impulsive decisions. Such behavior has led to the common assumption that a dysfunction in risk-related decision-making peaks during this age. Differences in how risk has been defined across studies, however, make it difficult to draw conclusions about developmental changes in risky decision-making. Here, we developed a non-symbolic economic decision-making task that can be used across a wide age span and that uses coefficient of variation (CV) in reward as an index of risk. We found that young children showed the strongest preference for risky compared to sure bet options of equal expected value, adolescents were intermediate in their risk preference, and young adults showed the strongest risk aversion. Furthermore, children's preference for the risky option increased for larger CVs, while adolescents and young adults showed the opposite pattern, favoring the sure bet more often as CV increased. Finally, when faced with two gambles in a risk–return tradeoff, all three age groups exhibited a greater preference for the option with the lower risk and return as the disparity in risk between the two options increased. These findings demonstrate clear age-related differences in economic risk preferences that vary with choice set and risk. Importantly, adolescence appears to represent an intermediate decision-making phenotype along the transition from childhood to adulthood, rather than an age of heightened preference for economic risk. PMID:21687443

The role of the anterior cingulate cortex in women's sexual decision making.

PubMed

Rupp, Heather A; James, Thomas W; Ketterson, Ellen D; Sengelaub, Dale R; Janssen, Erick; Heiman, Julia R

2009-01-02

Women's sexual decision making is a complex process balancing the potential rewards of conception and pleasure against the risks of possible low paternal care or sexually transmitted infection. Although neural processes underlying social decision making are suggested to overlap with those involved in economic decision making, the neural systems associated with women's sexual decision making are unknown. Using fMRI, we measured the brain activation of 12 women while they viewed photos of men's faces. Face stimuli were accompanied by information regarding each man's potential risk as a sexual partner, indicated by a written description of the man's number of previous sexual partners and frequency of condom use. Participants were asked to evaluate how likely they would be to have sex with the man depicted. Women reported that they would be more likely to have sex with low compared to high risk men. Stimuli depicting low risk men also elicited stronger activation in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), midbrain, and intraparietal sulcus, possibly reflecting an influence of sexual risk on women's attraction, arousal, and attention during their sexual decision making. Activation in the ACC was positively correlated with women's subjective evaluations of sex likelihood and response times during their evaluations of high, but not low risk men. These findings provide evidence that neural systems involved in sexual decision making in women overlap with those described previously to underlie nonsexual decision making.

Towards an integrated approach to natural hazards risk assessment using GIS: with reference to bushfires.

PubMed

Chen, Keping; Blong, Russell; Jacobson, Carol

2003-04-01

This paper develops a GIS-based integrated approach to risk assessment in natural hazards, with reference to bushfires. The challenges for undertaking this approach have three components: data integration, risk assessment tasks, and risk decision-making. First, data integration in GIS is a fundamental step for subsequent risk assessment tasks and risk decision-making. A series of spatial data integration issues within GIS such as geographical scales and data models are addressed. Particularly, the integration of both physical environmental data and socioeconomic data is examined with an example linking remotely sensed data and areal census data in GIS. Second, specific risk assessment tasks, such as hazard behavior simulation and vulnerability assessment, should be undertaken in order to understand complex hazard risks and provide support for risk decision-making. For risk assessment tasks involving heterogeneous data sources, the selection of spatial analysis units is important. Third, risk decision-making concerns spatial preferences and/or patterns, and a multicriteria evaluation (MCE)-GIS typology for risk decision-making is presented that incorporates three perspectives: spatial data types, data models, and methods development. Both conventional MCE methods and artificial intelligence-based methods with GIS are identified to facilitate spatial risk decision-making in a rational and interpretable way. Finally, the paper concludes that the integrated approach can be used to assist risk management of natural hazards, in theory and in practice.

Prediction of alcohol and gambling problems in young adults by using a measure of decision making.

PubMed

Harvanko, Arit M; Schreiber, Liana R N; Grant, Jon E

2013-01-01

Individuals who regularly gamble, regularly consume alcohol, or meet criteria for an alcohol-use disorder or pathological gambling may make riskier decisions on cognitive tasks. What remains unclear in the literature is whether these decision-making deficits precede or result from these addictive behaviors. This study aimed to determine whether risky decision making on a cognitive task is predictive of increasing gambling behaviors and alcohol use. Fifty-eight young adults (aged 18-29 years) free from Axis I disorders and reporting no symptoms of at-risk gambling behavior or alcohol consumption, who were participating in a longitudinal study of impulsivity, were grouped as either high-risk decision makers (n = 29) or low-risk decision makers (n = 29) by using the Cambridge Gamble Task. Subjects were assessed at 1-year follow-up to examine gambling frequency, alcohol consumption, at-risk alcohol-use criteria, alcohol-use disorder criteria, at-risk gambling criteria, and pathological gambling criteria. High-risk decision makers were found to be more likely to meet at-risk criteria for alcohol use after 1 year. Decision-making group membership was not significantly correlated with frequency of gambling or development of pathological gambling or alcohol-use disorder over 1 year. A variable measuring risky decision making on the Cambridge Gambling Task may be able to predict who is more likely to increase alcohol use per session later in life.

Decision making for wildfires: A guide for applying a risk management process at the incident level

Treesearch

Mary A. Taber; Lisa M. Elenz; Paul G. Langowski

2013-01-01

This publication focuses on the thought processes and considerations surrounding a risk management process for decision making on wildfires. The publication introduces a six element risk management cycle designed to encourage sound risk-informed decision making in accordance with Federal wildland fire policy, although the process is equally applicable to non-Federal...

Ambiguity aversion in schizophrenia: An fMRI study of decision-making under risk and ambiguity.

PubMed

Fujino, Junya; Hirose, Kimito; Tei, Shisei; Kawada, Ryosaku; Tsurumi, Kosuke; Matsukawa, Noriko; Miyata, Jun; Sugihara, Genichi; Yoshihara, Yujiro; Ideno, Takashi; Aso, Toshihiko; Takemura, Kazuhisa; Fukuyama, Hidenao; Murai, Toshiya; Takahashi, Hidehiko

2016-12-01

When making decisions in everyday life, we often have to choose between uncertain outcomes. Economic studies have demonstrated that healthy people tend to prefer options with known probabilities (risk) than those with unknown probabilities (ambiguity), which is referred to as "ambiguity aversion." However, it remains unclear how patients with schizophrenia behave under ambiguity, despite growing evidence of their altered decision-making under uncertainty. In this study, combining economic tools and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we assessed the attitudes toward risk/ambiguity and investigated the neural correlates during decision-making under risk/ambiguity in schizophrenia. Although no significant difference in attitudes under risk was observed, patients with schizophrenia chose ambiguity significantly more often than the healthy controls. Attitudes under risk and ambiguity did not correlate across patients with schizophrenia. Furthermore, unlike in the healthy controls, activation of the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex was not increased during decision-making under ambiguity compared to under risk in schizophrenia. These results suggest that ambiguity aversion, a well-established subjective bias, is attenuated in patients with schizophrenia, highlighting the need to distinguish between risk and ambiguity when assessing decision-making under these situations. Our findings, comprising important clinical implications, contribute to improved understanding of the mechanisms underlying altered decision-making in patients with schizophrenia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of regulating anger and sadness on decision-making.

PubMed

Szasz, Paul Lucian; Hofmann, Stefan G; Heilman, Renata M; Curtiss, Joshua

2016-11-01

The aim of the current study was to investigate the effects of reappraisal, acceptance, and rumination for regulating anger and sadness on decision-making. Participants (N = 165) were asked to recall two autobiographical events in which they felt intense anger and sadness, respectively. Participants were then instructed to reappraise, accept, ruminate, or not use any strategies to regulate their feelings of anger and sadness. Following this manipulation, risk aversion, and decision-making strategies were measured using a computer-based measure of risk-taking and a simulated real-life decision-making task. Participants who were instructed to reappraise their emotions showed the least anger and sadness, the most adaptive decision-making strategies, but the least risk aversion as compared to the participants in the other conditions. These findings suggest that emotion regulation strategies of negative affective states have an immediate effect on decision-making and risk-taking behaviors.

Correlates of healthcare and financial decision making among older adults without dementia.

PubMed

Stewart, Christopher C; Yu, Lei; Wilson, Robert S; Bennett, David A; Boyle, Patricia A

2018-03-22

Healthcare and financial decision making among older persons has been previously associated with cognition, health and financial literacy, and risk aversion; however, the manner by which these resources support decision making remains unclear, as past studies have not systematically investigated the pathways linking these resources with decision making. In the current study, we use path analysis to examine the direct and indirect pathways linking age, education, cognition, literacy, and risk aversion with decision making. We also decomposed literacy into its subcomponents, conceptual knowledge and numeracy, in order to examine their associations with decision making. Participants were 937 community-based older adults without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project who completed a battery of cognitive tests and assessments of healthcare and financial decision making, health and financial literacy, and risk aversion. Age and education exerted effects on decision making, but nearly two thirds of their effects were indirect, working mostly through cognition and literacy. Cognition exerted a strong direct effect on decision making and a robust indirect effect working primarily through literacy. Literacy also exerted a powerful direct effect on decision making, as did its subcomponents, conceptual knowledge and numeracy. The direct effect of risk aversion was comparatively weak. In addition to cognition, health and financial literacy emerged as independent and primary correlates of healthcare and financial decision making. These findings suggest specific actions that might be taken to optimize healthcare and financial decision making and, by extension, improve health and well-being in advanced age. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

The Role of Intuition in Risk/Benefit Decision-Making in Human Subjects Research

PubMed Central

Resnik, David B.

2016-01-01

One of the key principles of ethical research involving human subjects is that the risks of research to should be acceptable in relation to expected benefits. Institutional review board (IRB) members often rely on intuition to make risk/benefit decisions concerning proposed human studies. Some have objected to using intuition to make these decisions because intuition is unreliable and biased and lacks transparency. In this paper, I examine the role of intuition in IRB risk/benefit decision-making and argue that there are practical and philosophical limits to our ability to reduce our reliance on intuition in this process. The fact that IRB risk/benefit decision-making involves intuition need not imply that it is hopelessly subjective or biased, however, since there are strategies that IRBs can employ to improve their decisions, such as using empirical data to estimate the probability of potential harms and benefits, developing classification systems to guide the evaluation of harms and benefits, and engaging in moral reasoning concerning the acceptability of risks. PMID:27294429

The Role of Intuition in Risk/Benefit Decision-Making in Human Subjects Research.

PubMed

Resnik, David B

2017-01-01

One of the key principles of ethical research involving human subjects is that the risks of research to should be acceptable in relation to expected benefits. Institutional review board (IRB) members often rely on intuition to make risk/benefit decisions concerning proposed human studies. Some have objected to using intuition to make these decisions because intuition is unreliable and biased and lacks transparency. In this article, I examine the role of intuition in IRB risk/benefit decision-making and argue that there are practical and philosophical limits to our ability to reduce our reliance on intuition in this process. The fact that IRB risk/benefit decision-making involves intuition need not imply that it is hopelessly subjective or biased, however, since there are strategies that IRBs can employ to improve their decisions, such as using empirical data to estimate the probability of potential harms and benefits, developing classification systems to guide the evaluation of harms and benefits, and engaging in moral reasoning concerning the acceptability of risks.

Decisions for Others Are Less Risk-Averse in the Gain Frame and Less Risk-Seeking in the Loss Frame Than Decisions for the Self

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xiangyi; Liu, Yi; Chen, Xiyou; Shang, Xuesong; Liu, Yongfang

2017-01-01

Despite the fact that people make decisions for others as often as they make decisions for themselves, little is known about how decisions for others are different from those made for the self. In two experiments, we investigated the effect of social distance (i.e., making decisions for oneself, a friend, or a stranger) on risk preferences in both gain and loss situations. We found that people were more risk averse in gain situations when they made decisions for themselves than for a stranger (Studies 1 and 2), but were equally risk averse for themselves and their friends (Study 2). However, people were more risk seeking in loss situations when they made decisions for themselves than for their friends as well as for a stranger, and were more risk seeking for their friends than for a stranger (Study 2). Furthermore, the effect of social distance on risk preferences was stronger in loss than in gain situations. Mediation analysis indicated that outcome-induced loss aversion was responsible for effects of social distance on risk preferences. These findings demonstrate that social distance influences risk preferences via perceived loss aversion, which sheds new light on self-other differences in decision making. PMID:28966604

My Lived Experiences Are More Important Than Your Probabilities: The Role of Individualized Risk Estimates for Decision Making about Participation in the Study of Tamoxifen and Raloxifene (STAR).

PubMed

Holmberg, Christine; Waters, Erika A; Whitehouse, Katie; Daly, Mary; McCaskill-Stevens, Worta

2015-11-01

Decision-making experts emphasize that understanding and using probabilistic information are important for making informed decisions about medical treatments involving complex risk-benefit tradeoffs. Yet empirical research demonstrates that individuals may not use probabilities when making decisions. To explore decision making and the use of probabilities for decision making from the perspective of women who were risk-eligible to enroll in the Study of Tamoxifen and Raloxifene (STAR). We conducted narrative interviews with 20 women who agreed to participate in STAR and 20 women who declined. The project was based on a narrative approach. Analysis included the development of summaries of each narrative, and thematic analysis with developing a coding scheme inductively to code all transcripts to identify emerging themes. Interviewees explained and embedded their STAR decisions within experiences encountered throughout their lives. Such lived experiences included but were not limited to breast cancer family history, a personal history of breast biopsies, and experiences or assumptions about taking tamoxifen or medicines more generally. Women's explanations of their decisions about participating in a breast cancer chemoprevention trial were more complex than decision strategies that rely solely on a quantitative risk-benefit analysis of probabilities derived from populations In addition to precise risk information, clinicians and risk communicators should recognize the importance and legitimacy of lived experience in individual decision making. © The Author(s) 2015.

Factors associated with confidence in decision making and satisfaction with risk communication among patients with atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Hedberg, Berith; Malm, Dan; Karlsson, Jan-Erik; Årestedt, Kristofer; Broström, Anders

2018-06-01

Atrial fibrillation is a prevalent cardiac arrhythmia. Effective communication of risks (e.g. stroke risk) and benefits of treatment (e.g. oral anticoagulants) is crucial for the process of shared decision making. The aim of this study was to explore factors associated with confidence in decision making and satisfaction with risk communication after a follow-up visit among patients who three months earlier had visited an emergency room for atrial fibrillation related symptoms. A cross-sectional design was used and 322 patients (34% women), mean age 66.1 years (SD 10.5 years) with atrial fibrillation were included in the south of Sweden. Clinical examinations were done post an atrial fibrillation episode. Self-rating scales for communication (Combined Outcome Measure for Risk Communication and Treatment Decision Making Effectiveness), uncertainty in illness (Mishel Uncertainty in Illness Scale-Community), mastery of daily life (Mastery Scale), depressive symptoms (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale) and vitality, physical health and mental health (36-item Short Form Health Survey) were used to collect data. Decreased vitality and mastery of daily life, as well as increased uncertainty in illness, were independently associated with lower confidence in decision making. Absence of hypertension and increased uncertainty in illness were independently associated with lower satisfaction with risk communication. Clinical atrial fibrillation variables or depressive symptoms were not associated with satisfaction with confidence in decision making or satisfaction with risk communication. The final models explained 29.1% and 29.5% of the variance in confidence in decision making and satisfaction with risk communication. Confidence in decision making is associated with decreased vitality and mastery of daily life, as well as increased uncertainty in illness, while absence of hypertension and increased uncertainty in illness are associated with risk communication satisfaction.

Brief Report: Risk-Aversion and Rationality in Autism Spectrum Disorders.

PubMed

Gosling, Corentin J; Moutier, Sylvain

2018-05-30

Risk-aversion and rationality have both been highlighted as core features of decision making in individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD). This study tested whether risk-aversion is related to rational decision-making in ASD individuals. ASD and matched control adults completed a decision-making task that discriminated between the use of risk-averse and rational strategies. Results showed that overall, ASD participants were more risk-averse than control participants. Specifically, both groups made similar choices when risk-aversion was the less rational strategy but ASD participants chose more rational options than control participants when risk-aversion was the most rational strategy. This study confirmed that risk-aversion is a core feature of ASD and revealed that ASD individuals can switch their decision-making strategy adaptively to avoid negative consequences.

75 FR 18205 - Notice of Peer Review Meeting for the External Peer Review Drafts of Two Documents on Using...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-09

... Role of Risk Analysis in Decision-Making AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). ACTION: Notice... documents entitled, ``Using Probabilistic Methods to Enhance the Role of Risk Analysis in Decision- Making... Probabilistic Methods to Enhance the Role of Risk Analysis in Decision-Making, with Case Study Examples'' and...

The Impact of Prior Risk Experiences on Subsequent Risky Decision-Making: The Role of the Insula

PubMed Central

Xue, Gui; Lu, Zhonglin; Levin, Irwin P.; Bechara, Antoine

2010-01-01

Risky decision-making is significantly affected by homeostatic states associated with different prior risk experiences, yet the neural mechanisms have not been well understood. Using functional MRI, we examined how gambling decisions and their underlying neural responses were modulated by prior risk experiences, with a focus on the insular cortex since it has been implicated in interoception, emotion and risky decision-making. Fourteen healthy young participants were scanned while performing a gambling task that was designed to simulate daily-life risk taking. Prior risk experience was manipulated by presenting participants with gambles that they were very likely to accept or gambles that they were unlikely to accept. A probe gamble, which was sensitive to individual's risk preference, was presented to examine the effect of prior risk experiences (Risk vs. Norisk) on subsequent risky decisions. Compared to passing on a gamble (Norisk), taking a gamble, especially winning a gamble (Riskwin), was associated with significantly stronger activation in the insular and dorsal medial prefrontal cortices. Decision making after Norisk was more risky and more likely to recruit activation of the insular and anterior cingulate cortices. This insular activity during decision making predicted the extent of risky decisions both within- and across- subjects, and was also correlated with an individual's personality trait of urgency. These findings suggest that the insula plays an important role in activating representations of homeostatic states associated with the experience of risk, which in turn exerts an influence on subsequent decisions. PMID:20045470

Decision making under ambiguity and under risk in mesial temporal lobe epilepsy.

PubMed

Delazer, Margarete; Zamarian, Laura; Bonatti, Elisabeth; Kuchukhidze, Giorgi; Koppelstätter, Florian; Bodner, Thomas; Benke, Thomas; Trinka, Eugen

2010-01-01

Decision making is essential in everyday life. Though the importance of the mesial temporal lobe in emotional processing and feedback learning is generally recognized, decision making in mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (mTLE) is almost unexplored so far. Twenty-eight consecutive epilepsy patients with drug resistant mTLE and fifty healthy controls performed decision tasks under initial ambiguity (participants have to learn by feedback to make advantageous decisions) and under risk (advantageous choices may be made by estimating risks and by rational strategies). A subgroup analysis compared the performance of patients affected by MRI-verified abnormalities of the hippocampus or amygdala. The effect of lesion side was also assessed. In decision under ambiguity, mTLE patients showed marked deficits and did not improve over the task. Patients with hippocampus abnormality and patients with amygdala abnormality showed comparable deficits. No difference was found between right and left TLE groups. In decision under risk, mTLE patients performed at the same level as controls. Results suggest that mTLE patients have difficulties in learning from feedback and in making decisions in uncertain, ambiguous situations. By contrast, they are able to make advantageous decisions when full information is given and risks, possible gains and losses are exactly defined.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making: Frequently Asked Questions

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

General concepts and principles of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), describe how PRA can improve the bases of Agency decisions, and provide illustrations of how PRA has been used in risk estimation and in describing the uncertainty in decision making.

Performing a secondary executive task with affective stimuli interferes with decision making under risk conditions.

PubMed

Gathmann, Bettina; Pawlikowski, Mirko; Schöler, Tobias; Brand, Matthias

2014-05-01

Previous studies demonstrated that executive functions are crucial for advantageous decision making under risk and that therefore decision making is disrupted when working memory capacity is demanded while working on a decision task. While some studies also showed that emotions can affect decision making under risk, it is unclear how affective processing and executive functions predict decision-making performance in interaction. The current experimental study used a between-subjects design to examine whether affective pictures (positive and negative pictures compared to neutral pictures), included in a parallel executive task (working memory 2-back task), have an impact on decision making under risk as assessed by the Game of Dice Task (GDT). Moreover, the performance GDT plus 2-back task was compared to the performance in the GDT without any additional task (GDT solely). The results show that the performance in the GDT differed between groups (positive, negative, neutral, and GDT solely). The groups with affective pictures, especially those with positive pictures in the 2-back task, showed more disadvantageous decisions in the GDT than the groups with neutral pictures and the group performing the GDT without any additional task. However, executive functions moderated the effect of the affective pictures. Regardless of affective influence, subjects with good executive functions performed advantageously in the GDT. These findings support the assumption that executive functions and emotional processing interact in predicting decision making under risk.

Processing speed and memory mediate age-related differences in decision making.

PubMed

Henninger, Debra E; Madden, David J; Huettel, Scott A

2010-06-01

Decision making under risk changes with age. Increases in risk aversion with age have been most commonly characterized, although older adults may be risk seeking in some decision contexts. An important, and unanswered, question is whether these changes in decision making reflect a direct effect of aging or, alternatively, an indirect effect caused by age-related changes in specific cognitive processes. In the current study, older adults (M = 71 years) and younger adults (M = 24 years) completed a battery of tests of cognitive capacities and decision-making preferences. The results indicated systematic effects of age upon decision quality-with both increased risk seeking and increased risk aversion observed in different tasks-consistent with prior studies. Path analyses, however, revealed that age-related effects were mediated by individual differences in processing speed and memory. When those variables were included in the model, age was no longer a significant predictor of decision quality. The authors conclude that the reduction in decision quality and associated changes in risk preferences commonly ascribed to aging are instead mediated by age-related changes in underlying cognitive capacities. (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved

Poor Decision Making is Associated with an Increased Risk of Mortality Among Community-Dwelling Older Persons without Dementia

PubMed Central

Boyle, Patricia A.; Wilson, Robert S.; Yu, Lei; Buchman, Aron S.; Bennett, David A.

2013-01-01

Background Decision making is thought to be an important determinant of health and well-being across the lifespan, but little is known about the association of decision making with mortality. Methods Participants were 675 older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging. Baseline assessments of decision making were used to predict the risk of mortality during up to 4 years of follow-up. Results The mean score on the decision making measure at baseline was 7.1 (SD=2.9, range: 0-12), with lower scores indicating poorer decision making. During up to 4 years of follow-up (mean=1.7 years), 40 (6% of 675) persons died. In a proportional hazards model adjusted for age, sex, and education, the risk of mortality increased by about 20% for each additional decision making error (HR=1.19, 95% CI 1.07, 1.32, p=0.002). Thus, a person who performed poorly on the measure of decision making (score=3, 10th percentile) was about four times more likely to die compared to a person who performed well (score=11, 90th percentile). Further, the association of decision making with mortality persisted after adjustment for the level of cognitive function. Conclusion Poor decision making is associated with an increased risk of mortality in old age even after accounting for cognitive function. PMID:23364306

Poor decision making is associated with an increased risk of mortality among community-dwelling older persons without dementia.

PubMed

Boyle, Patricia A; Wilson, Robert S; Yu, Lei; Buchman, Aron S; Bennett, David A

2013-01-01

Decision making is thought to be an important determinant of health and well-being across the lifespan, but little is known about the association of decision making with mortality. Participants were 675 older persons without dementia from the Rush Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal cohort study of aging. Baseline assessments of decision making were used to predict the risk of mortality during up to 4 years of follow-up. The mean score on the decision making measure at baseline was 7.1 (SD = 2.9, range: 0-12), with lower scores indicating poorer decision making. During up to 4 years of follow-up (mean = 1.7 years), 40 (6% of 675) persons died. In a proportional hazards model adjusted for age, sex and education, the risk of mortality increased by about 20% for each additional decision making error (HR = 1.19, 95% CI = 1.07-1.32, p = 0.002). Thus, a person who performed poorly on the measure of decision making (score = 3, 10th percentile) was about 4 times more likely to die compared to a person who performed well (score = 11, 90th percentile). Further, the association of decision making with mortality persisted after adjustment for the level of cognitive function. Poor decision making is associated with an increased risk of mortality in old age even after accounting for cognitive function. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Police response to domestic violence: making decisions about risk and risk management.

PubMed

Perez Trujillo, Monica; Ross, Stuart

2008-04-01

Assessing and responding to risk are key elements in how police respond to domestic violence. However, relatively little is known about the way police make judgments about the risks associated with domestic violence and how these judgments influence their actions. This study examines police decisions about risk in domestic violence incidents when using a risk assessment instrument. Based on a sample of 501 risk assessments completed by police in Australia, this study shows that a limited number of items on the risk assessment instrument are important in police officers' decisions about risk. Statistical analyses show that the victim's level of fear contributes to police officers' judgment on the level of risk and their decisions on which risk management strategy should be used. These findings suggest that research on police responses to domestic violence needs to pay greater attention to situational dynamics and the task requirements of risk-based decision making.

Different roads to the same destination - The impact of impulsivity on decision-making processes under risk within a rewarding context in a healthy male sample.

PubMed

Dinu-Biringer, Ramona; Nees, Frauke; Falquez, Rosalux; Berger, Moritz; Barnow, Sven

2016-02-28

The results of research about the influences of impulsivity on decision-making in situations of risk have been inconsistent. In this study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging to examine the neural correlates of decision-making under risk in 12 impulsive, as defined by the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale-11, and 13 normal men. Although both groups showed similar decision-making behavior, neural activation regarding decision-making processes differed significantly. Impulsive persons revealed stronger activation in the (ventro-) medial prefrontal cortex and less deactivation of the orbitofrontal cortex while playing for potential gains. These brain regions might be associated with the emotional components of decision-making processes. Significant differences in brain areas linked to cognitive decision-making components were not found. This activation pattern might be seen as an indication for a hypersensitivity to rewarding cues in impulsive persons and might be linked to the propensity for inappropriate risk-taking behavior in persons with more extreme impulsivity levels, especially in situations in which they have a strong emotional involvement in the decision process. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decision Making and Ratio Processing in Patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment.

PubMed

Pertl, Marie-Theres; Benke, Thomas; Zamarian, Laura; Delazer, Margarete

2015-01-01

Making advantageous decisions is important in everyday life. This study aimed at assessing how patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) make decisions under risk. Additionally, it investigated the relationship between decision making, ratio processing, basic numerical abilities, and executive functions. Patients with MCI (n = 22) were compared with healthy controls (n = 29) on a complex task of decision making under risk (Game of Dice Task-Double, GDT-D), on two tasks evaluating basic decision making under risk, on a task of ratio processing, and on several neuropsychological background tests. Patients performed significantly lower than controls on the GDT-D and on ratio processing, whereas groups performed comparably on basic decision tasks. Specifically, in the GDT-D, patients obtained lower net scores and lower mean expected values, which indicate a less advantageous performance relative to that of controls. Performance on the GDT-D correlated significantly with performance in basic decision tasks, ratio processing, and executive-function measures when the analysis was performed on the whole sample. Patients with MCI make sub-optimal decisions in complex risk situations, whereas they perform at the same level as healthy adults in simple decision situations. Ratio processing and executive functions have an impact on the decision-making performance of both patients and healthy older adults. In order to facilitate advantageous decisions in complex everyday situations, information should be presented in an easily comprehensible form and cognitive training programs for patients with MCI should focus--among other abilities--on executive functions and ratio processing.

A Tutorial on Probablilistic Risk Assessement and its Role in Risk-Informed Decision Making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon

2010-01-01

This slide presentation reviews risk assessment and its role in risk-informed decision making. It includes information on probabilistic risk assessment, typical risk management process, origins of risk matrix, performance measures, performance objectives and Bayes theorem.

Gambling for Gatorade: risk-sensitive decision making for fluid rewards in humans

PubMed Central

Platt, Michael L.

2009-01-01

Determining how both humans and animals make decisions in risky situations is a central problem in economics, experimental psychology, behavioral economics, and neurobiology. Typically, humans are risk seeking for gains and risk averse for losses, while animals may display a variety of preferences under risk depending on, amongst other factors, internal state. Such differences in behavior may reflect major cognitive and cultural differences or they may reflect differences in the way risk sensitivity is probed in humans and animals. Notably, in most studies humans make one or a few choices amongst hypothetical or real monetary options, while animals make dozens of repeated choices amongst options offering primary rewards like food or drink. To address this issue, we probed risk-sensitive decision making in human participants using a paradigm modeled on animal studies, in which rewards were either small squirts of Gatorade or small amounts of real money. Possible outcomes and their probabilities were not made explicit in either case. We found that individual patterns of decision making were strikingly similar for both juice and for money, both in overall risk preferences and in trial-to-trial effects of reward outcome on choice. Comparison with decisions made by monkeys for juice in a similar task revealed highly similar gambling styles. These results unite known patterns of risk-sensitive decision making in human and nonhuman primates and suggest that factors such as the way a decision is framed or internal state may underlie observed variation in risk preferences between and within species. PMID:18719953

Risk taking and adult attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder: A gap between real life behavior and experimental decision making.

PubMed

Pollak, Yehuda; Shalit, Reut; Aran, Adi

2018-01-01

Adults with attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are prone to suboptimal decision making and risk taking. The aim of this study was to test performance on a theoretically-based probabilistic decision making task in well-characterized adults with and without ADHD, and examine the relation between experimental risk taking and history of real-life risk-taking behavior, defined as cigarette, alcohol, and street drug use. University students with and without ADHD completed a modified version of the Cambridge Gambling Test, in which they had to choose between alternatives varied by level of risk, and reported their history of substance use. Both groups showed similar patterns of risk taking on the experimental decision making task, suggesting that ADHD is not linked to low sensitivity to risk. Past and present substance use was more prevalent in adults with ADHD. These finding question the validity of experimental probabilistic decision making task as a valid model for ADHD-related risk-taking behavior. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Risky Decision Making in a Laboratory Driving Task Is Associated with Health Risk Behaviors during Late Adolescence but Not Adulthood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim-Spoon, Jungmeen; Kahn, Rachel; Deater-Deckard, Kirby; Chiu, Pearl; Steinberg, Laurence; King-Casas, Brooks

2016-01-01

Adolescence is characterized by increasing incidence of health risk behaviors, including experimentation with drugs and alcohol. To fill the gap in our understanding of the associations between risky decision-making and health risk behaviors, we investigated associations between laboratory-based risky decision-making using the Stoplight task and…

Decision-making deficits in pathological gambling: the role of executive functions, explicit knowledge and impulsivity in relation to decisions made under ambiguity and risk.

PubMed

Ochoa, Cristian; Alvarez-Moya, Eva M; Penelo, Eva; Aymami, M Neus; Gómez-Peña, Mónica; Fernández-Aranda, Fernando; Granero, Roser; Vallejo-Ruiloba, Julio; Menchón, José Manuel; Lawrence, Natalia S; Jiménez-Murcia, Susana

2013-01-01

A variety of cognitive and emotional processes influence the decision-making deficits observed in pathological gambling (PG). This study investigated the role of immediate/delayed sensitivity to reward and punishment, executive functions, impulsivity and explicit knowledge in relation to decision-making performance on the original Iowa Gambling Task (IGT-ABCD) and a variant (IGT-EFGH). We assessed 131 consecutive patients with a diagnosis of PG by using executive functioning and decision-making tasks, self-report measures of impulsivity and explicit knowledge. The majority of pathological gamblers (PGs) showed deficits in decision-making, characterized mainly by myopia for the future. Decisions made under risk showed different predictors. Performance on the IGT-ABCD for decisions made under risk was predicted by medium and high levels of explicit knowledge of the task, as well as by scores on the Disorderliness subscale and the degree of Stroop interference. By contrast, IGT-EFGH results were only associated with self-report impulsivity measures. Decision making in PG involves distinct patterns of deficits, and the predictors differ depending on the reinforcement schedule. Decisions made under risk on the IGT-ABCD are associated with explicit knowledge, executive functions and impulsivity traits related to conscious awareness and control processes. On the IGT-EFGH, however, only impulsivity traits predict decision making. Copyright © American Academy of Addiction Psychiatry.

Impaired decision-making under risk is associated with gaming-specific inhibition deficits among college students with Internet gaming disorder.

PubMed

Yao, Yuan-Wei; Wang, Ling-Jiao; Yip, Sarah W; Chen, Pin-Ru; Li, Song; Xu, Jiansong; Zhang, Jin-Tao; Deng, Lin-Yuan; Liu, Qin-Xue; Fang, Xiao-Yi

2015-09-30

A growing body of evidence indicates that both inhibition and decision-making deficits play essential roles in the development and maintenance of Internet gaming disorder (IGD). Clarifying whether impaired decision-making among individuals with IGD is related to poor inhibition will advance our understanding of IGD and contribute to intervention development. However, the relationship between these two functions remains unclear. In this study, we sought to systemically examine inhibitory processes, decision-making and the relationship between the two among individuals with IGD. Thirty-four individuals with IGD and 32 matched healthy controls (HCs) were recruited. In comparison to HCs, IGD subjects demonstrated inhibition deficits during performance of the gaming-related Go/No-Go task and impaired decision-making under risk. In addition, errors on No-Go trials during the gaming-related Go/No-Go task were positively associated with decision-making impairments under risk but not under ambiguity among IGD subjects. These results suggest individuals with IGD are impaired in some aspects of inhibition and decision-making functions, and that decision-making deficits under risk are linked to poor inhibition specifically related to gaming cues, which has implications for the development of novel intervention. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk-Sensitive Decision-Making Deficit in Adolescent Suicide Attempters

PubMed Central

Ackerman, John P; McBee-Strayer, Sandy M; Mendoza, Kristen; Stevens, Jack; Sheftall, Arielle H; Campo, John V

2015-01-01

Abstract Objective: Suicide among adolescents is a major public health problem. Decision-making deficits may play an important role in vulnerability to suicidal behavior, but few studies have examined decision-making performance in youth at risk for suicide. In this study, we seek to extend recent findings that adolescent suicide attempters process risk evaluations differently than adolescents who have not attempted suicide. Methods: We assessed decision-making in 14 adolescent suicide attempters and 14 non-attempter comparison subjects, ages 15–19, using the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT). Each participant was also administered a diagnostic interview (Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview [MINI]), structured suicide severity measures, and a brief intelligence quotient (IQ) measure. Results: After controlling for gender and IQ differences, suicide attempters displayed an elevated risk-taking propensity on the CGT relative to comparison subjects, such that they were more willing to take a large risk with their bank of points, a decision-making style that proves disadvantageous over time. No group differences in the latency or accuracy of decision-making were observed. Conclusions: Adolescents with a history of suicide attempt display increased risk-taking and greater difficulty predicting probable outcomes on the CGT. Such deficits have been associated with dysfunction in the orbitofrontal prefrontal cortex, which supports other studies implicating impaired decision-making among individuals with a history of suicide attempt. PMID:25265242

Sex and HIV serostatus differences in decision making under risk among substance-dependent individuals.

PubMed

Martin, Eileen; Gonzalez, Raul; Vassileva, Jasmin; Maki, Pauline M; Bechara, Antoine; Brand, Matthias

2016-01-01

HIV+ individuals with and without substance use disorders make significantly poorer decisions when information about the probability and magnitude of wins and losses is not available. We administered the Game of Dice Task, a measure of decision making under risk that provides this information explicitly, to 92 HIV+ and 134 HIV- substance-dependent men and women. HIV+ participants made significantly poorer decisions than HIV- participants, but this deficit appeared more prominent among HIV+ women. These data indicate that decision making under risk is impaired among HIV+ substance-dependent individuals (SDIs). Potential factors for the HIV+ women's relatively greater impairment are discussed.

Towards a more open debate about values in decision-making on agricultural biotechnology.

PubMed

Devos, Yann; Sanvido, Olivier; Tait, Joyce; Raybould, Alan

2014-12-01

Regulatory decision-making over the use of products of new technology aims to be based on science-based risk assessment. In some jurisdictions, decision-making about the cultivation of genetically modified (GM) plants is blocked supposedly because of scientific uncertainty about risks to the environment. However, disagreement about the acceptability of risks is primarily a dispute over normative values, which is not resolvable through natural sciences. Natural sciences may improve the quality and relevance of the scientific information used to support environmental risk assessments and make scientific uncertainties explicit, but offer little to resolve differences about values. Decisions about cultivating GM plants will thus not necessarily be eased by performing more research to reduce scientific uncertainty in environmental risk assessments, but by clarifying the debate over values. We suggest several approaches to reveal values in decision-making: (1) clarifying policy objectives; (2) determining what constitutes environmental harm; (3) making explicit the factual and normative premises on which risk assessments are based; (4) better demarcating environmental risk assessment studies from ecological research; (5) weighing the potential for environmental benefits (i.e., opportunities) as well as the potential for environmental harms (i.e., risks); and (6) expanding participation in the risk governance of GM plants. Recognising and openly debating differences about values will not remove controversy about the cultivation of GM plants. However, by revealing what is truly in dispute, debates about values will clarify decision-making criteria.

Perceived risks around choice and decision making at end-of-life: a literature review.

PubMed

Wilson, F; Gott, M; Ingleton, C

2013-01-01

the World Health Organization identifies meeting patient choice for care as central to effective palliative care delivery. Little is known about how choice, which implies an objective balancing of options and risks, is understood and enacted through decision making at end-of-life. to explore how perceptions of 'risk' may inform decision-making processes at end-of-life. an integrative literature review was conducted between January and February 2010. Papers were reviewed using Hawker et al.'s criteria and evaluated according to clarity of methods, analysis and evidence of ethical consideration. All literature was retained as background data, but given the significant international heterogeneity the final analysis specifically focused on the UK context. the databases Medline, PsycINFO, Assia, British Nursing Index, High Wire Press and CINAHL were explored using the search terms decision*, risk, anxiety, hospice and palliative care, end-of-life care and publication date of 1998-2010. thematic analysis of 25 papers suggests that decision making at end-of-life is multifactorial, involving a balancing of risks related to caregiver support; service provider resources; health inequalities and access; challenges to information giving; and perceptions of self-identity. Overall there is a dissonance in understandings of choice and decision making between service providers and service users. the concept of risk acknowledges the factors that shape and constrain end-of-life choices. Recognition of perceived risks as a central factor in decision making would be of value in acknowledging and supporting meaningful decision making processes for patients with palliative care needs and their families.

Using Risk Assessment Methodologies to Meet Management Objectives

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, D. L.

2015-01-01

Current decision making involves numerous possible combinations of technology elements, safety and health issues, operational aspects and process considerations to satisfy program goals. Identifying potential risk considerations as part of the management decision making process provides additional tools to make more informed management decision. Adapting and using risk assessment methodologies can generate new perspectives on various risk and safety concerns that are not immediately apparent. Safety and operational risks can be identified and final decisions can balance these considerations with cost and schedule risks. Additional assessments can also show likelihood of event occurrence and event consequence to provide a more informed basis for decision making, as well as cost effective mitigation strategies. Methodologies available to perform Risk Assessments range from qualitative identification of risk potential, to detailed assessments where quantitative probabilities are calculated. Methodology used should be based on factors that include: 1) type of industry and industry standards, 2) tasks, tools, and environment 3) type and availability of data and 4) industry views and requirements regarding risk & reliability. Risk Assessments are a tool for decision makers to understand potential consequences and be in a position to reduce, mitigate or eliminate costly mistakes or catastrophic failures.

State-Dependent Risk Preferences in Evolutionary Games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roos, Patrick; Nau, Dana

There is much empirical evidence that human decision-making under risk does not correspond the decision-theoretic notion of "rational" decision making, namely to make choices that maximize the expected value. An open question is how such behavior could have arisen evolutionarily. We believe that the answer to this question lies, at least in part, in the interplay between risk-taking and sequentiality of choice in evolutionary environments.

Ventral striatal response during decision making involving risk and reward is associated with future binge drinking in adolescents.

PubMed

Morales, Angelica M; Jones, Scott A; Ehlers, Alissa; Lavine, Jessye B; Nagel, Bonnie J

2018-05-07

Beginning to engage in heavy alcohol use during adolescence, as opposed to later in life, is associated with elevated risk for a variety of negative consequences, including the development of an alcohol use disorder. Behavioral studies suggest that poor decision making predicts alcohol use during adolescence; however, more research is needed to determine the neurobiological risk factors that underlie this association. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, brain activation during decision making involving risk and reward was assessed in 47 adolescents (14-15 years old) with no significant history or alcohol or drug use. After baseline assessment, participants completed follow-up interviews every 3 months to assess the duration to onset of binge drinking. Adolescents who made a greater number of risky selections and had greater activation in the nucleus accumbens, precuneus, and occipital cortex during decision making involving greater potential for risk and reward began binge drinking sooner. Findings suggest that heightened activation of reward circuitry during decision making under risk is a neurobiological risk factor for earlier onset of binge drinking. Furthermore, brain activation was a significant predictor of onset to binge drinking, even after controlling for decision-making behavior, suggesting that neurobiological markers may provide additional predictive validity over behavioral assessments. Interventions designed to modify these behavioral and neurobiological risk factors may be useful for curbing heavy alcohol use during adolescence.

Alterations of decision making and underlying neural correlates after resection of a mediofrontal cortical dysplasia: A single case study.

PubMed

Labudda, Kirsten; Brand, Matthias; Mertens, Markus; Ebner, Alois; Markowitsch, Hans J; Woermann, Friedrich G

2010-02-01

We investigated the impact of a congenital prefrontal lesion and its resection on decision making under risk and under ambiguity in a patient with right mediofrontal cortical dysplasia. Both kinds of decision making are normally associated with the medial prefrontal cortex. We additionally studied pre- and postsurgical fMRI activations when processing information relevant for risky decision making. Results indicate selective impairments of ambiguous decision making pre- and postsurgically. Decision making under risk was intact. In contrast to healthy subjects the patient exhibited no activation within the dysplastic anterior cingulate cortex but left-sided orbitofrontal activation on the fMRI task suggesting early reorganization processes.

Decision curve analysis for assessing the usefulness of tests for making decisions to treat: an application to tests for prodromal psychosis.

PubMed

Pulleyblank, Ryan; Chuma, Jefter; Gilbody, Simon M; Thompson, Carl

2013-09-01

For a test to be considered useful for making treatment decisions, it is necessary that making treatment decisions based on the results of the test be a preferable strategy to making treatment decisions without the test. Decision curve analysis is a framework for assessing when a test would be expected to be useful, which integrates evidence of a test's performance characteristics (sensitivity and specificity), condition prevalence among at-risk patients, and patient preferences for treatment. We describe decision curve analysis generally and illustrate its potential through an application to tests for prodromal psychosis. Clinical psychosis is often preceded by a prodromal phase, but not all those with prodromal symptoms proceed to develop full psychosis. Patients identified as at risk for developing psychosis may be considered for proactive treatment to mitigate development of clinically defined psychosis. Tests exist to help identify those at-risk patients most likely to develop psychosis, but it is uncertain when these tests would be considered useful for making proactive treatment decisions. We apply decision curve analysis to results from a systematic review of studies investigating clinical tests for predicting the development of psychosis in at-risk populations, and present resulting decision curves that illustrate when the tests may be expected to be useful for making proactive treatment decisions.

European Social Work Research Association SIG to Study Decisions, Assessment, and Risk.

PubMed

Taylor, Brian; Killick, Campbell; Bertotti, Teresa; Enosh, Guy; Gautschi, Joel; Hietamäki, Johanna; Sicora, Alessandro; Whittaker, Andrew

2018-01-01

The increasing interest in professional judgement and decision making is often separate from the discourse about "risk," and the time-honored focus on assessment. The need to develop research in and across these topics was recognized in the founding of a Decisions, Assessment, and Risk Special Interest Group (DARSIG) by the European Social Work Research Association in 2014. The Group's interests include cognitive judgements; decision processes with clients, families, other professionals and courts; assessment tools and processes; the assessment, communication, and management of risk; and legal, ethical, and emotional aspects of these. This article outlines the founding and scope of DARSIG; gives an overview of decision making, assessment, and risk for practice; illustrates connections between these; and highlights future research directions. Professional knowledge about decision making, assessment, and risk complements knowledge about effectiveness of interventions. DARSIG promises to be a useful mechanism for the purpose.

Serotonin Transporter Gene-Linked Polymorphic Region (5-HTTLPR) Influences Decision Making under Ambiguity and Risk in a Large Chinese Sample

PubMed Central

He, Qinghua; Xue, Gui; Chen, Chuansheng; Lu, Zhonglin; Dong, Qi; Lei, Xuemei; Ding, Ni; Li, Jin; Li, He; Chen, Chunhui; Li, Jun; Moyzis, Robert K.; Bechara, Antoine

2010-01-01

Risky decision-making is a complex process that involves weighing the probabilities of alternative options that can be desirable, undesirable, or neutral. Individuals vary greatly in how they make decisions either under ambiguity and/or under risk. Such individual differences may have genetic bases. Based on previous studies on the genetic basis of decision making, two decision making tasks [i.e., Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and Loss Aversion Task (LAT)] were used to test the effect of 5-HTTLPR polymorphism on decision making under ambiguity and under risk in a large Han Chinese sample (572 college students, 312 females). Basic intelligence and memory tests were also included to control for the influence of basic cognitive abilities on decision making. We found that 5-HTTLPR polymorphism significantly influenced performance in both IGT and LAT. After controlling for intellectual and memory abilities, subjects homozygous for s allele had lower IGT scores than l carriers in the first 40 trials of the IGT task. They also exhibited higher loss aversion than l carriers in the LAT task. Moreover, the effects of 5-HTTLPR were stronger for males than for females. These results extend the literature on the important role of emotion in decision under ambiguity and risk, and provide additional lights on how decision-making is influenced by culture as well as sex differences. Combining our results with existing literature, we propose that these effects might be mediated by a neural circuitry that comprises the amygdala, ventromedial prefrontal cortex, and insular cortex. Understanding the genetic factors affecting decision in healthy subjects may allow us better identify at-risk individuals, and target better the development of new potential treatments for specific disorders such as schizophrenia, addiction, and depression. PMID:20659488

Grey situation group decision-making method based on prospect theory.

PubMed

Zhang, Na; Fang, Zhigeng; Liu, Xiaqing

2014-01-01

This paper puts forward a grey situation group decision-making method on the basis of prospect theory, in view of the grey situation group decision-making problems that decisions are often made by multiple decision experts and those experts have risk preferences. The method takes the positive and negative ideal situation distance as reference points, defines positive and negative prospect value function, and introduces decision experts' risk preference into grey situation decision-making to make the final decision be more in line with decision experts' psychological behavior. Based on TOPSIS method, this paper determines the weight of each decision expert, sets up comprehensive prospect value matrix for decision experts' evaluation, and finally determines the optimal situation. At last, this paper verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the method by means of a specific example.

Grey Situation Group Decision-Making Method Based on Prospect Theory

PubMed Central

Zhang, Na; Fang, Zhigeng; Liu, Xiaqing

2014-01-01

This paper puts forward a grey situation group decision-making method on the basis of prospect theory, in view of the grey situation group decision-making problems that decisions are often made by multiple decision experts and those experts have risk preferences. The method takes the positive and negative ideal situation distance as reference points, defines positive and negative prospect value function, and introduces decision experts' risk preference into grey situation decision-making to make the final decision be more in line with decision experts' psychological behavior. Based on TOPSIS method, this paper determines the weight of each decision expert, sets up comprehensive prospect value matrix for decision experts' evaluation, and finally determines the optimal situation. At last, this paper verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the method by means of a specific example. PMID:25197706

Reasoning and mathematical skills contribute to normatively superior decision making under risk: evidence from the game of dice task.

PubMed

Pertl, Marie-Theres; Zamarian, Laura; Delazer, Margarete

2017-08-01

In this study, we assessed to what extent reasoning improves performance in decision making under risk in a laboratory gambling task (Game of Dice Task-Double, GDT-D). We also investigated to what degree individuals with above average mathematical competence decide better than those with average mathematical competence. Eighty-five participants performed the GDT-D and several numerical tasks. Forty-two individuals were asked to calculate the probabilities and the outcomes associated with the different options of the GDT-D before performing it. The other 43 individuals performed the GDT-D at the beginning of the test session. Both reasoning and mathematical competence had a positive effect on decision making. Different measures of mathematical competence correlated with advantageous performance in decision making. Results suggest that decision making under explicit risk conditions improves when individuals are encouraged to reflect about the contingencies of a decision situation. Interventions based on numerical reasoning may also be useful for patients with difficulties in decision making.

Trait Anxiety Has Effect on Decision Making under Ambiguity but Not Decision Making under Risk

PubMed Central

Zhang, Long; Wang, Kai; Zhu, Chunyan; Yu, Fengqiong; Chen, Xingui

2015-01-01

Previous studies have reported that trait anxiety (TA) affects decision making. However, results remain largely inconsistent across studies. The aim of the current study was to further address the interaction between TA and decision making. 304 subjects without depression from a sample consisting of 642 participants were grouped into high TA (HTA), medium TA (MTA) and low TA (LTA) groups based on their TA scores from State Trait Anxiety Inventory. All subjects were assessed with the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) that measures decision making under ambiguity and the Game of Dice Task (GDT) that measures decision making under risk. While the HTA and LTA groups performed worse on the IGT compared to the MTA group, performances on the GDT between the three groups did not differ. Furthermore, the LTA and HTA groups showed different individual deck level preferences in the IGT: the former showed a preference for deck B indicating that these subjects focused more on the magnitude of rewards, and the latter showed a preference for deck A indicating significant decision making impairment. Our findings suggest that trait anxiety has effect on decision making under ambiguity but not decision making under risk and different levels of trait anxiety related differently to individual deck level preferences in the IGT. PMID:26000629

The neuronal substrate of risky choice: an insight into the contributions of neuroimaging to the understanding of theories on decision making under risk.

PubMed

Vorhold, Verena

2008-04-01

This chapter provides an overview of studies in the field of neuroscience that investigate some of the processes and concepts of risk perception, risky choice, and decision making under risk. First, early studies in the field of neuroscience addressing the diminished decision-making abilities in lesion patients are presented. A classical task in this research field is described along with its neural implications. After this, the underlying model, its hypotheses, and neuronal implications are discussed. Different aspects within risky decision making, such as the influence of memory, inhibition, motivation, and personality, on risky choice and the respective underlying neuronal substrate are described. After this, studies of risky decision making in healthy subjects are reviewed. A selection of studies shows that theories focusing on cognitive aspects only have to be enriched in order to allow for additional aspects within risky decision making (e.g., emotion). Next, the classical economic approaches and the development of theories incorporating further aspects within economical decision making and the underlying neuronal substrate will be presented. Finally, research in the field of neuroeconomics, focusing on the role of social decision making and evaluative judgment within risky decision making, is reviewed.

Risk assessment and decision making about in-labour transfer from rural maternity care: a social judgment and signal detection analysis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The importance of respecting women’s wishes to give birth close to their local community is supported by policy in many developed countries. However, persistent concerns about the quality and safety of maternity care in rural communities have been expressed. Safe childbirth in rural communities depends on good risk assessment and decision making as to whether and when the transfer of a woman in labour to an obstetric led unit is required. This is a difficult decision. Wide variation in transfer rates between rural maternity units have been reported suggesting different decision making criteria may be involved; furthermore, rural midwives and family doctors report feeling isolated in making these decisions and that staff in urban centres do not understand the difficulties they face. In order to develop more evidence based decision making strategies greater understanding of the way in which maternity care providers currently make decisions is required. This study aimed to examine how midwives working in urban and rural settings and obstetricians make intrapartum transfer decisions, and describe sources of variation in decision making. Methods The study was conducted in three stages. 1. 20 midwives and four obstetricians described factors influencing transfer decisions. 2. Vignettes depicting an intrapartum scenario were developed based on stage one data. 3. Vignettes were presented to 122 midwives and 12 obstetricians who were asked to assess the level of risk in each case and decide whether to transfer or not. Social judgment analysis was used to identify the factors and factor weights used in assessment. Signal detection analysis was used to identify participants’ ability to distinguish high and low risk cases and personal decision thresholds. Results When reviewing the same case information in vignettes midwives in different settings and obstetricians made very similar risk assessments. Despite this, a wide range of transfer decisions were still made, suggesting that the main source of variation in decision making and transfer rates is not in the assessment but the personal decision thresholds of clinicians. Conclusions Currently health care practice focuses on supporting or improving decision making through skills training and clinical guidelines. However, these methods alone are unlikely to be effective in improving consistency of decision making. PMID:23114289

Involvement and Influence of Healthcare Providers, Family Members, and Other Mutation Carriers in the Cancer Risk Management Decision-Making Process of BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers.

PubMed

Puski, Athena; Hovick, Shelly; Senter, Leigha; Toland, Amanda Ewart

2018-03-29

Deciding between increased cancer screening or prophylactic surgery and the timing of such procedures can be a difficult and complex process for women with BRCA mutations. There are gaps in our understanding of involvement of others in the decision-making process for women with BRCA mutations. This study evaluated the management decision-making process of women with BRCA mutations, focusing on the involvement of others. Grounded theory was used to analyze and code risk management decision-making information from interviews with 20 BRCA mutation carriers. Unaffected at-risk participants with a BRCA mutation, those under age 40, and those with no children described having a difficult time making risk management decisions. Physicians were an integral part of the decision-making process by providing decisional support and management recommendations. Family members and other mutation carriers filled similar yet distinct roles by providing experiential information as well as decisional and emotional support for carriers. Participants described genetic counselors as short-term providers of risk information and management recommendations. The study findings suggest that unaffected at-risk women, women under 40, and those who do not have children may benefit from additional support and information during the decision-making process. Genetic counselors are well trained to help women through this process and connect them with resources, and may be under-utilized in long-term follow-up for women with a BRCA mutation.

The grey matter correlates of impaired decision-making in multiple sclerosis

PubMed Central

Muhlert, Nils; Sethi, Varun; Cipolotti, Lisa; Haroon, Hamied; Parker, Geoff J M; Yousry, Tarek; Wheeler-Kingshott, Claudia; Miller, David; Ron, Maria; Chard, Declan

2015-01-01

Objective People with multiple sclerosis (MS) have difficulties with decision-making but it is unclear if this is due to changes in impulsivity, risk taking, deliberation or risk adjustment, and how this relates to brain pathology. Methods We assessed these aspects of decision-making in 105 people with MS and 43 healthy controls. We used a novel diffusion MRI method, diffusion orientational complexity (DOC), as an index of grey matter pathology in regions associated with decision-making and also measured grey matter tissue volumes and white matter lesion volumes. Results People with MS showed less adjustment to risk and slower decision-making than controls. Moreover, impaired decision-making correlated with reduced executive function, memory and processing speed. Decision-making impairments were most prevalent in people with secondary progressive MS. They were seen in patients with cognitive impairment and those without cognitive impairment. On diffusion MRI, people with MS showed DOC changes in all regions except the occipital cortex, relative to controls. Risk adjustment correlated with DOC in the hippocampi and deliberation time with DOC in the medial prefrontal, middle frontal gyrus, anterior cingulate and caudate parcellations and with white matter lesion volumes. Conclusions These data clarify the features of decision-making deficits in MS, and provide the first evidence that they relate to grey and white matter abnormalities seen using MRI. PMID:25006208

Decision Making Under Objective Risk Conditions-a Review of Cognitive and Emotional Correlates, Strategies, Feedback Processing, and External Influences.

PubMed

Schiebener, Johannes; Brand, Matthias

2015-06-01

While making decisions under objective risk conditions, the probabilities of the consequences of the available options are either provided or calculable. Brand et al. (Neural Networks 19:1266-1276, 2006) introduced a model describing the neuro-cognitive processes involved in such decisions. In this model, executive functions associated with activity in the fronto-striatal loop are important for developing and applying decision-making strategies, and for verifying, adapting, or revising strategies according to feedback. Emotional rewards and punishments learned from such feedback accompany these processes. In this literature review, we found support for the role of executive functions, but also found evidence for the importance of further cognitive abilities in decision making. Moreover, in addition to reflective processing (driven by cognition), decisions can be guided by impulsive processing (driven by anticipation of emotional reward and punishment). Reflective and impulsive processing may interact during decision making, affecting the evaluation of available options, as both processes are affected by feedback. Decision-making processes are furthermore modulated by individual attributes (e.g., age), and external influences (e.g., stressors). Accordingly, we suggest a revised model of decision making under objective risk conditions.

Risk communication and decision-making in the prevention of invasive breast cancer.

PubMed

Partridge, Ann H

2017-08-01

Risk communication surrounding the prevention of invasive breast cancer entails not only understanding of the disease, risks and opportunities for intervention. But it also requires understanding and implementation of optimal strategies for communication with patients who are making these decisions. In this article, available evidence for the issues surrounding risk communication and decision making in the prevention of invasive breast cancer are reviewed and strategies for improvement are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Eating and drinking interventions for people at risk of lacking decision-making capacity: who decides and how?

PubMed

Clarke, Gemma; Galbraith, Sarah; Woodward, Jeremy; Holland, Anthony; Barclay, Stephen

2015-06-11

Some people with progressive neurological diseases find they need additional support with eating and drinking at mealtimes, and may require artificial nutrition and hydration. Decisions concerning artificial nutrition and hydration at the end of life are ethically complex, particularly if the individual lacks decision-making capacity. Decisions may concern issues of life and death: weighing the potential for increasing morbidity and prolonging suffering, with potentially shortening life. When individuals lack decision-making capacity, the standard processes of obtaining informed consent for medical interventions are disrupted. Increasingly multi-professional groups are being utilised to make difficult ethical decisions within healthcare. This paper reports upon a service evaluation which examined decision-making within a UK hospital Feeding Issues Multi-Professional Team. A three month observation of a hospital-based multi-professional team concerning feeding issues, and a one year examination of their records. The key research questions are: a) How are decisions made concerning artificial nutrition for individuals at risk of lacking decision-making capacity? b) What are the key decision-making factors that are balanced? c) Who is involved in the decision-making process? Decision-making was not a singular decision, but rather involved many different steps. Discussions involving relatives and other clinicians, often took place outside of meetings. Topics of discussion varied but the outcome relied upon balancing the information along four interdependent axes: (1) Risks, burdens and benefits; (2) Treatment goals; (3) Normative ethical values; (4) Interested parties. Decision-making was a dynamic ongoing process with many people involved. The multiple points of decision-making, and the number of people involved with the decision-making process, mean the question of 'who decides' cannot be fully answered. There is a potential for anonymity of multiple decision-makers to arise. Decisions in real world clinical practice may not fit precisely into a model of decision-making. The findings from this service evaluation illustrate that within multi-professional team decision-making; decisions may contain elements of both substituted and supported decision-making, and may be better represented as existing upon a continuum.

The Demise of Decision Making: How Information Superiority Degrades Our Ability to Make Decisions

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-20

studied the topic of risk in relation to decision making. In fact, Daniel Bernoulli produced findings in 1738 connecting risk aversion to wealth and...determined that they were stalled for some reason and not fighting. 34 Angry of this unplanned halt and potential loss of momentum , Franks sought answers

Decision making under explicit risk is impaired in individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

PubMed

Fujiwara, Esther; Tomlinson, Sara E; Purdon, Scot E; Gill, M John; Power, Christopher

2015-01-01

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) can affect the frontal-striatal brain regions, which are known to subserve decision-making functions. Previous studies have reported impaired decision making among HIV+ individuals using the Iowa Gambling Task, a task that assesses decision making under ambiguity. Previous study populations often had significant comorbidities such as past or present substance use disorders and/or hepatitis C virus coinfection, complicating conclusions about the unique contributions of HIV-infection to decision making. Decision making under explicit risk has very rarely been examined in HIV+ individuals and was tested here using the Game of Dice Task (GDT). We examined decision making under explicit risk in the GDT in 20 HIV+ individuals without substance use disorder or HCV coinfection, including a demographically matched healthy control group (n = 20). Groups were characterized on a standard neuropsychological test battery. For the HIV+ group, several disease-related parameters (viral load, current and nadir CD4 T-cell count) were included. Analyses focused on the GDT and spanned between-group (t-tests; analysis of covariance, ANCOVA) as well as within-group comparisons (Pearson/Spearman correlations). HIV+ individuals were impaired in the GDT, compared to healthy controls (p = .02). Their decision-making impairments were characterized by less advantageous choices and more random choice strategies, especially towards the end of the task. Deficits in the GDT in the HIV+ group were related to executive dysfunctions, slowed processing/motor speed, and current immune system status (CD4+ T-cell levels, ps < .05). Decision making under explicit risk in the GDT can occur in HIV-infected individuals without comorbidities. The correlational patterns may point to underlying fronto-subcortical dysfunctions in HIV+ individuals. The GDT provides a useful measure to assess risky decision making in this population and should be tested in larger studies.

Serotonin transporter gene-linked polymorphic region (5-HTTLPR) influences decision making under ambiguity and risk in a large Chinese sample.

PubMed

He, Qinghua; Xue, Gui; Chen, Chuansheng; Lu, Zhonglin; Dong, Qi; Lei, Xuemei; Ding, Ni; Li, Jin; Li, He; Chen, Chunhui; Li, Jun; Moyzis, Robert K; Bechara, Antoine

2010-11-01

Risky decision making is a complex process that involves weighing the probabilities of alternative options that can be desirable, undesirable, or neutral. Individuals vary greatly in how they make decisions either under ambiguity and/or under risk. Such individual differences may have genetic bases. Based on previous studies on the genetic basis of decision making, two decision making tasks [i.e., the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and Loss Aversion Task (LAT)] were used to test the effect of 5-HTTLPR polymorphism on decision making under ambiguity and under risk in a large Han Chinese sample (572 college students, 312 females). Basic intelligence and memory tests were also included to control for the influence of basic cognitive abilities on decision making. We found that 5-HTTLPR polymorphism significantly influenced performance in both IGT and LAT. After controlling for intelligence and memory abilities, subjects homozygous for s allele had lower IGT scores than l carriers in the first 40 trials of the IGT task. They also exhibited higher loss aversion than l carriers in the LAT task. Moreover, the effects of 5-HTTLPR were stronger for males than for females. These results extend the literature on the important role of emotion in decision making under ambiguity and risk, and shed additional lights on how decision making is influenced by culture as well as sex differences. Combining our results with existing literature, we propose that these effects might be mediated by a neural circuitry that comprises the amygdala, ventromedial prefrontal cortex, and insular cortex. Understanding the genetic factors affecting decision making in healthy subjects may allow us to better identify at-risk individuals, and better target the development of new potential treatments for specific disorders such as schizophrenia, addiction, and depression. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decision-Making Deficits Among Maltreated Children

PubMed Central

Weller, Joshua A.; Fisher, Philip A.

2013-01-01

Although maltreated children involved with child welfare services are known to exhibit elevated levels of health-risking behaviors, little is known about their decision-making processes leading to these behaviors. Research findings suggest that maltreated children exhibit developmental delays in neurocognitive and emotional regulation systems that could adversely impact their abilities to make decisions under conditions of risk. Whereas prior researchers have examined risky decision making as a global construct, maltreated children’s decision making was examined in two contexts in the present study: potential gains and potential losses. Comparing maltreated children (n = 25) and a nonmaltreated community group (n = 112), it was found that the maltreated children showed decision-making impairments for both domains: This impairment was especially prominent in the loss domain. The maltreated children took excessive risks and were insensitive to changes in expected value. Follow-up analyses revealed that these differences were primarily associated with insensitivity to changes in outcome magnitude for the risky option. Finally, response latency analyses indicated that the maltreated children were slower to make choices, reinforcing underlying differences in decision processes between groups. These results have implications for basic and translational science. PMID:23220788

A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Multiple Myeloma.

PubMed

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, Karthik; Domike, Reuben; Kazandjian, Dickran; Landgren, Ola; Blumenthal, Gideon M; Farrell, Ann; Pazdur, Richard; Woodcock, Janet

2018-01-01

Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analysis. In this work, a quantitative benefit-risk analysis approach captures regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat multiple myeloma (MM). MM assessments have been based on endpoints such as time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR) which are different than benefit-risk analysis based on overall survival (OS). Twenty-three FDA decisions on MM drugs submitted to FDA between 2003 and 2016 were identified and analyzed. The benefits and risks were quantified relative to comparators (typically the control arm of the clinical trial) to estimate whether the median benefit-risk was positive or negative. A sensitivity analysis was demonstrated using ixazomib to explore the magnitude of uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes were consistent and logical using this benefit-risk framework. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Risk Communication Emergency Response Preparedness: Contextual Assessment of the Protective Action Decision Model.

PubMed

Heath, Robert L; Lee, Jaesub; Palenchar, Michael J; Lemon, Laura L

2018-02-01

Studies are continuously performed to improve risk communication campaign designs to better prepare residents to act in the safest manner during an emergency. To that end, this article investigates the predictive ability of the protective action decision model (PADM), which links environmental and social cues, predecision processes (attention, exposure, and comprehension), and risk decision perceptions (threat, alternative protective actions, and stakeholder norms) with protective action decision making. This current quasi-longitudinal study of residents (N = 400 for each year) in a high-risk (chemical release) petrochemical manufacturing community investigated whether PADM core risk perceptions predict protective action decision making. Telephone survey data collected at four intervals (1995, 1998, 2002, 2012) reveal that perceptions of protective actions and stakeholder norms, but not of threat, currently predict protective action decision making (intention to shelter in place). Of significance, rather than threat perceptions, perception of Wally Wise Guy (a spokes-character who advocates shelter in place) correlates with perceptions of protective action, stakeholder norms, and protective action decision making. Wally's response-efficacy advice predicts residents' behavioral intentions to shelter in place, thereby offering contextually sensitive support and refinement for PADM. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Neural mechanisms regulating different forms of risk-related decision-making: Insights from animal models.

PubMed

Orsini, Caitlin A; Moorman, David E; Young, Jared W; Setlow, Barry; Floresco, Stan B

2015-11-01

Over the past 20 years there has been a growing interest in the neural underpinnings of cost/benefit decision-making. Recent studies with animal models have made considerable advances in our understanding of how different prefrontal, striatal, limbic and monoaminergic circuits interact to promote efficient risk/reward decision-making, and how dysfunction in these circuits underlies aberrant decision-making observed in numerous psychiatric disorders. This review will highlight recent findings from studies exploring these questions using a variety of behavioral assays, as well as molecular, pharmacological, neurophysiological, and translational approaches. We begin with a discussion of how neural systems related to decision subcomponents may interact to generate more complex decisions involving risk and uncertainty. This is followed by an overview of interactions between prefrontal-amygdala-dopamine and habenular circuits in regulating choice between certain and uncertain rewards and how different modes of dopamine transmission may contribute to these processes. These data will be compared with results from other studies investigating the contribution of some of these systems to guiding decision-making related to rewards vs. punishment. Lastly, we provide a brief summary of impairments in risk-related decision-making associated with psychiatric disorders, highlighting recent translational studies in laboratory animals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diagnosing Expertise: Human Capital, Decision Making, and Performance among Physicians

PubMed Central

Currie, Janet; MacLeod, W. Bentley

2017-01-01

Expert performance is often evaluated assuming that good experts have good outcomes. We examine expertise in medicine and develop a model that allows for two dimensions of physician performance: decision making and procedural skill. Better procedural skill increases the use of intensive procedures for everyone, while better decision making results in a reallocation of procedures from fewer low-risk to high-risk cases. We show that poor diagnosticians can be identified using administrative data and that improving decision making improves birth outcomes by reducing C-section rates at the bottom of the risk distribution and increasing them at the top of the distribution. PMID:29276336

Self-Regulation Principles Underlying Risk Perception and Decision Making within the Context of Genomic Testing

PubMed Central

Cameron, Linda D.; Biesecker, Barbara Bowles; Peters, Ellen; Taber, Jennifer M.; Klein, William M. P.

2017-01-01

Advances in theory and research on self-regulation and decision-making processes have yielded important insights into how cognitive, emotional, and social processes shape risk perceptions and risk-related decisions. We examine how self-regulation theory can be applied to inform our understanding of decision-making processes within the context of genomic testing, a clinical arena in which individuals face complex risk information and potentially life-altering decisions. After presenting key principles of self-regulation, we present a genomic testing case example to illustrate how principles related to risk representations, approach and avoidance motivations, emotion regulation, defensive responses, temporal construals, and capacities such as numeric abilities can shape decisions and psychological responses during the genomic testing process. We conclude with implications for using self-regulation theory to advance science within genomic testing and opportunities for how this research can inform further developments in self-regulation theory. PMID:29225669

Self-Regulation Principles Underlying Risk Perception and Decision Making within the Context of Genomic Testing.

PubMed

Cameron, Linda D; Biesecker, Barbara Bowles; Peters, Ellen; Taber, Jennifer M; Klein, William M P

2017-05-01

Advances in theory and research on self-regulation and decision-making processes have yielded important insights into how cognitive, emotional, and social processes shape risk perceptions and risk-related decisions. We examine how self-regulation theory can be applied to inform our understanding of decision-making processes within the context of genomic testing, a clinical arena in which individuals face complex risk information and potentially life-altering decisions. After presenting key principles of self-regulation, we present a genomic testing case example to illustrate how principles related to risk representations, approach and avoidance motivations, emotion regulation, defensive responses, temporal construals, and capacities such as numeric abilities can shape decisions and psychological responses during the genomic testing process. We conclude with implications for using self-regulation theory to advance science within genomic testing and opportunities for how this research can inform further developments in self-regulation theory.

Gender Differences in Two Decision-Making Tasks in a Community Sample of Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

d'Acremont, Mathieu; Van der Linden, Martial

2006-01-01

In adolescence, externalized problems such as risk taking and antisocial behavior are more frequent in boys. This suggests that there are differences in the way boys and girls evaluate risk and make decisions during this period. To explore decision making and highlight possible gender differences, 124 adolescents at a junior secondary school…

Spillover Effects of Loss of Control on Risky Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Beisswingert, Birgit M.; Zhang, Keshun; Goetz, Thomas; Fischbacher, Urs

2016-01-01

Decision making in risky situations is frequently required in our everyday lives and has been shown to be influenced by various factors, some of which are independent of the risk context. Based on previous findings and theories about the central role of perceptions of control and their impact on subsequent settings, spillover effects of subjective loss of control on risky decision-making are assumed. After developing an innovative experimental paradigm for inducing loss of control, its hypothesized effects on risky decision-making are investigated. Partially supporting the hypotheses, results demonstrated no increased levels of risk perceptions but decreased risk-taking behavior following experiences of loss of control. Thus, this study makes a methodological contribution by proposing a newly developed experimental paradigm facilitating further research on the effects of subjective loss of control, and additionally provides partial evidence for the spillover effects of loss of control experiences on risky decision-making. PMID:26930066

An Integrated Web-based Decision Support System in Disaster Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aye, Z. C.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Derron, M. H.

2012-04-01

Nowadays, web based decision support systems (DSS) play an essential role in disaster risk management because of their supporting abilities which help the decision makers to improve their performances and make better decisions without needing to solve complex problems while reducing human resources and time. Since the decision making process is one of the main factors which highly influence the damages and losses of society, it is extremely important to make right decisions at right time by combining available risk information with advanced web technology of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS). This paper presents an integrated web-based decision support system (DSS) of how to use risk information in risk management efficiently and effectively while highlighting the importance of a decision support system in the field of risk reduction. Beyond the conventional systems, it provides the users to define their own strategies starting from risk identification to the risk reduction, which leads to an integrated approach in risk management. In addition, it also considers the complexity of changing environment from different perspectives and sectors with diverse stakeholders' involvement in the development process. The aim of this platform is to contribute a part towards the natural hazards and geosciences society by developing an open-source web platform where the users can analyze risk profiles and make decisions by performing cost benefit analysis, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) with the support of others tools and resources provided. There are different access rights to the system depending on the user profiles and their responsibilities. The system is still under development and the current version provides maps viewing, basic GIS functionality, assessment of important infrastructures (e.g. bridge, hospital, etc.) affected by landslides and visualization of the impact-probability matrix in terms of socio-economic dimension.

Treatment decision-making and the form of risk communication: results of a factorial survey.

PubMed

Hembroff, Larry A; Holmes-Rovner, Margaret; Wills, Celia E

2004-11-16

Prospective users of preventive therapies often must evaluate complex information about therapeutic risks and benefits. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of relative and absolute risk information on patient decision-making in scenarios typical of health information for patients. Factorial experiments within a telephone survey of the Michigan adult, non-institutionalized, English-speaking population. Average interview lasted 23 minutes. Subjects and sample design: 952 randomly selected adults within a random-digit dial sample of Michigan households. Completion rate was 54.3%. When presented hypothetical information regarding additional risks of breast cancer from a medication to prevent a bone disease, respondents reduced their willingness to recommend a female friend take the medication compared to the baseline rate (66.8% = yes). The decrease was significantly greater with relative risk information. Additional benefit information regarding preventing heart disease from the medication increased willingness to recommend the medication to a female friend relative to the baseline scenario, but did not differ between absolute and relative risk formats. When information about both increased risk of breast cancer and reduced risk of heart disease were provided, typical respondents appeared to make rational decisions consistent with Expected Utility Theory, but the information presentation format affected choices. Those 11% - 33% making decisions contrary to the medical indications were more likely to be Hispanic, older, more educated, smokers, and to have children in the home. In scenarios typical of health risk information, relative risk information led respondents to make non-normative decisions that were "corrected" when the frame used absolute risk information. This population sample made generally rational decisions when presented with absolute risk information, even in the context of a telephone interview requiring remembering rates given. The lack of effect of gender and race suggests that a standard strategy of presenting absolute risk information may improve patient decision-making.

Family and physician influence on asthma research participation decisions for adolescents: the effects of adolescent gender and research risk.

PubMed

Brody, Janet L; Scherer, David G; Annett, Robert D; Turner, Charles; Dalen, Jeanne

2006-08-01

There is considerable ethical and legal ambiguity surrounding the role of adolescents in the decision-making process for research participation. Depending on the nature of the study and the regulations involved, adolescents may have independent responsibility for providing informed consent, they may be asked to provide their assent, or they may be completely excluded from the decision-making process. This study examined parent and adolescent perceptions of decision-making authority and sources of influence on adolescent research participation decisions, and examined whether perceptions of influence differed based on adolescent gender and level of research risk. Adolescents (n = 36) with asthma and their parents reviewed 9 pediatric research protocols, decided whether they would choose to participate, rated the extent they would be responsible for the actual decision, and indicated the ability of family and physician to influence their decisions. Multivariate analyses of variance were used to evaluate differences in perceptions of decision-making authority and sources of influence on the decisions. Adolescents were less willing to cede decision making authority to parents than parents anticipated. Parents and adolescents acknowledged a greater openness to influence from physicians than from family for above minimal risk studies. Parents were more willing to consider opinions from male adolescents. Adolescents desire responsibility for research participation decisions, though parents may not share these views. Physicians' views on research participation are important to families, especially for above minimal risk studies. Parents may grant more decision-making autonomy to adolescent males than to females. Researchers, physicians, and institutions play a key role in facilitating the ethical enrollment of adolescents into biomedical research. Educational, policy, and oversight processes that support both adolescent autonomy and parental responsibility for research participation decision-making in biomedical research are discussed.

Anthropology and decision making about chronic technological disasters: Mixed waste remediation on the Oak Ridge Reservation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wolfe, A.K.; Schweitzer, M.

This paper discusses two related case studies of decision making about the remediation of mixed (hazardous and radioactive) wastes on the Oak Ridge Reservation in Tennessee. The three goals of the paper are to (1) place current decision-making efforts in the varied and evolving social, political, regulatory, economic, and technological contexts in which they occur; (2) present definitions and attributes of {open_quotes}successful{close_quotes} environmental decision making from the perspectives of key constituency groups that participate in decision making; and (3) discuss the role of anthropology in addressing environmental decision making. Environmental decision making about remediation is extraordinarily complex, involving human healthmore » and ecological risks; uncertainties about risks, technological ability to clean up, the financial costs of clean up; multiple and sometimes conflicting regulations; social equity and justice considerations; and decreasing budgets. Anthropological theories and methods can contribute to better understanding and, potentially, to better decision making.« less

Risk Decision Making Model for Reservoir Floodwater resources Utilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, X.

2017-12-01

Floodwater resources utilization(FRU) can alleviate the shortage of water resources, but there are risks. In order to safely and efficiently utilize the floodwater resources, it is necessary to study the risk of reservoir FRU. In this paper, the risk rate of exceeding the design flood water level and the risk rate of exceeding safety discharge are estimated. Based on the principle of the minimum risk and the maximum benefit of FRU, a multi-objective risk decision making model for FRU is constructed. Probability theory and mathematical statistics method is selected to calculate the risk rate; C-D production function method and emergy analysis method is selected to calculate the risk benefit; the risk loss is related to flood inundation area and unit area loss; the multi-objective decision making problem of the model is solved by the constraint method. Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu Province as an example, the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir is found by using the risk decision making model, and the validity and applicability of the model are verified.

Public and stakeholder participation for managing and reducing the risks of shale gas development.

PubMed

North, D Warner; Stern, Paul C; Webler, Thomas; Field, Patrick

2014-01-01

Emerging technologies pose particularly strong challenges for risk governance when they have multidimensional and inequitable impacts, when there is scientific uncertainty about the technology and its risks, when there are strong value conflicts over the perceived benefits and risks, when decisions must be made urgently, and when the decision making environment is rife with mistrust. Shale gas development is one such emerging technology. Drawing on previous U.S. National Research Council committee reports that examined risk decision making for complex issues like these, we point to the benefits and challenges of applying the analytic-deliberative process recommended in those reports for stakeholder and public engagement in risk decision making about shale gas development in the United States. We discuss the different phases of such a process and conclude by noting the dangers of allowing controversy to ossify and the benefits of sound dialogue and learning among publics, stakeholders, industry, and regulatory decision makers.

Neuropsychological Markers of Suicidal Risk in the Context of Medical Rehabilitation.

PubMed

Pustilnik, Alexandra; Elkana, Odelia; Vatine, Jean-Jacques; Franko, Motty; Hamdan, Sami

2017-01-01

While great strides have been made to advance the understanding of the neurobiology of suicidal behavior (SB), the neural and neuropsychological mechanisms associated with SB are not well understood. The purpose of the current study is to identify neurocognitive markers of SB in the context of medical rehabilitation. The performances of 39 patients at a medical rehabilitation center, aged 21-78, were examined on a series of neurocognitive executive tasks-decision-making (Iowa Gambling Task - IGT), mental flexibility (WCST), response inhibition (SST) and working memory (digit span). Self-report questionnaires were administered, for Suicidal behaviors, depression, Anxiety, and PTSD as well as perceived social support. Suicidal participants performed more poorly on the IGT. A mediation analysis presented a significant direct effect of decision making on suicidal risk (p < 0.14) as well as significant indirect effect of decision making on suicidal risk that was mediated by the depressive symptoms (95% BCa CI [-0.15, -0.018]) with a medium effect size (κ 2  = 0.20, 95% BCa CI [0.067, 0.381]). Despite the complexity of relationship between decision-making and suicidal risk, these results suggest that clinicians should routinely assess decision-making abilities in adults at risk for suicide due to the fact that impaired decision-making may increase suicidal risk above and beyond that conferred by depression.

Developmental changes and individual differences in risk and perspective taking in adolescence.

PubMed

Crone, Eveline A; Bullens, L; van der Plas, E A A; Kijkuit, E J; Zelazo, P D

2008-01-01

Despite the assumed prevalence of risk-taking behavior in adolescence, the laboratory evidence of risk taking remains scarce, and the individual variation poorly understood. Drawing from neuroscience studies, we tested whether risk and reward orientation are influenced by the perspective that adolescents take when making risky decisions. Perspective taking was manipulated by cuing participants prior to each choice whether the decision was made for "self," or from the perspective of an "other" (the experimenter in Experiment 1; a hypothetical peer in Experiment 2). In Experiment 1, we show a developmental decrease in risk-taking behavior across different stages of adolescence. In addition, all age groups made fewer risky choices for the experimenter, but the difference between self and other was larger in early adolescence. In Experiment 2, we show that high sensation-seeking (SS) adolescents make more risky choices than low SS adolescents, but both groups make a similar differentiation for other individuals (low risk-taking or high risk-taking peers). Together, the results show that younger adolescents and high SS adolescents make more risky choices for themselves, but can appreciate that others may make fewer risky choices. The developmental change toward more rational decisions versus emotional, impulsive decisions may reflect, in part, more efficient integration of others' perspectives into one's decision making. These developmental results are discussed regarding brain systems important for risk taking and perspective taking.

Decision Making in the Airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

1995-01-01

The Importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful In improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking In response to a problem, This presentation will examine the relations between leadership, communication, decision making and overall crew performance. Implications of these findings for training will be discussed.

Risky Decision Making in Juvenile Myoclonic Epilepsy.

PubMed

Unterberger, Iris; Zamarian, Laura; Prieschl, Manuela; Bergmann, Melanie; Walser, Gerald; Luef, Gerhard; Javor, Andrija; Ransmayr, Gerhard; Delazer, Margarete

2018-01-01

It is not known whether patients with juvenile myoclonic epilepsy (JME) differ from healthy people in decision making under risk, i.e., when the decision-making context offers explicit information about options, probabilities, and consequences already from the beginning. In this study, we adopted the Game of Dice Task-Double to investigate decision making under risk in a group of 36 patients with JME (mean age 25.25/SD 5.29 years) and a group of 38 healthy controls (mean age 26.03/SD 4.84 years). Participants also underwent a comprehensive neuropsychological assessment focused on frontal executive functions. Significant group differences were found in tests of psychomotor speed and divided attention, with the patients scoring lower than the controls. Importantly, patients made risky decisions more frequently than controls. In the patient group, poor decision making was associated with poor executive control, poor response inhibition, and a short interval since the last seizure episode. Executive control and response inhibition could predict 42% of variance in the frequency of risky decisions. This study indicates that patients with JME with poorer executive functions are more likely to make risky decisions than healthy controls. Decision making under risk is of major importance in every-day life, especially with regard to treatment decisions and adherence to long-term medical therapy. Since even a single disadvantageous decision may have long-lasting consequences, this finding is of high relevance.

Risk perception and decision processes underlying informed consent to research participation.

PubMed

Reynolds, William W; Nelson, Robert M

2007-11-01

According to the rational choice model, informed consent should consist of a systematic, step-by-step evaluation of all information pertinent to the treatment or research participation decision. Research shows that people frequently deviate from this normative model, however, employing decision-making shortcuts, or heuristics. In this paper we report findings from a qualitative study of 32 adolescents and (their) 31 parents who were recruited from two Northeastern US hospitals and asked to consider the risks of and make hypothetical decisions about research participation. The purpose of this study was to increase our understanding of how diabetic and at-risk adolescents (i.e., those who are obese and/or have a family history of diabetes) and their parents perceive risks and make decisions about research participation. Using data collected from adolescents and parents, we identify heuristic decision processes in which participant perceptions of risk magnitude, which are formed quickly and intuitively and appear to be based on affective responses to information, are far more prominent and central to the participation decision than are perceptions of probability. We discuss participants' use of decision-making heuristics in the context of recent research on affect and decision processes, and we consider the implications of these findings for researchers.

Cool Decision-Making in Adolescents with Behavior Disorder and/or Mild-to-Borderline Intellectual Disability.

PubMed

Bexkens, Anika; Jansen, Brenda R J; Van der Molen, Maurits W; Huizenga, Hilde M

2016-02-01

Adolescents with Behavior Disorders (BD), Mild-to-Borderline Intellectual Disability (MBID), and with both BD and MBID (BD + MBID) are known to take more risks than normal controls. To examine the processes underlying this increased risk-taking, the present study investigated cool decision-making strategies in 479 adolescents (12-18 years, 55.9 % male) from these four groups. Cool decision-making was assessed with the paper-and-pencil Gambling Machine Task. This task, in combination with advanced latent group analysis, allows for an assessment of decision strategies. Results indicated that adolescents with BD and controls were almost equivalent in their decision-making strategies, whereas adolescents with MBID and adolescents with BD + MBID were characterized by suboptimal decision-making strategies, with only minor differences between these two clinical groups. These findings may have important clinical implications, as they suggest that risk taking in adolescents with MBID and in adolescents with BD + MBID can be (partly) attributed to the strategies that these adolescents use to make their decisions. Interventions may therefore focus on an improvement of these strategies.

Elucidating Poor Decision-Making in a Rat Gambling Task

PubMed Central

Seriès, Peggy; Marchand, Alain R.; Dellu-Hagedorn, Françoise

2013-01-01

Although poor decision-making is a hallmark of psychiatric conditions such as attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder, pathological gambling or substance abuse, a fraction of healthy individuals exhibit similar poor decision-making performances in everyday life and specific laboratory tasks such as the Iowa Gambling Task. These particular individuals may provide information on risk factors or common endophenotypes of these mental disorders. In a rodent version of the Iowa gambling task – the Rat Gambling Task (RGT), we identified a population of poor decision makers, and assessed how these rats scored for several behavioral traits relevant to executive disorders: risk taking, reward seeking, behavioral inflexibility, and several aspects of impulsivity. First, we found that poor decision-making could not be well predicted by single behavioral and cognitive characteristics when considered separately. By contrast, a combination of independent traits in the same individual, namely risk taking, reward seeking, behavioral inflexibility, as well as motor impulsivity, was highly predictive of poor decision-making. Second, using a reinforcement-learning model of the RGT, we confirmed that only the combination of extreme scores on these traits could induce maladaptive decision-making. Third, the model suggested that a combination of these behavioral traits results in an inaccurate representation of rewards and penalties and inefficient learning of the environment. Poor decision-making appears as a consequence of the over-valuation of high-reward-high-risk options in the task. Such a specific psychological profile could greatly impair clinically healthy individuals in decision-making tasks and may predispose to mental disorders with similar symptoms. PMID:24339988

Elucidating poor decision-making in a rat gambling task.

PubMed

Rivalan, Marion; Valton, Vincent; Seriès, Peggy; Marchand, Alain R; Dellu-Hagedorn, Françoise

2013-01-01

Although poor decision-making is a hallmark of psychiatric conditions such as attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder, pathological gambling or substance abuse, a fraction of healthy individuals exhibit similar poor decision-making performances in everyday life and specific laboratory tasks such as the Iowa Gambling Task. These particular individuals may provide information on risk factors or common endophenotypes of these mental disorders. In a rodent version of the Iowa gambling task--the Rat Gambling Task (RGT), we identified a population of poor decision makers, and assessed how these rats scored for several behavioral traits relevant to executive disorders: risk taking, reward seeking, behavioral inflexibility, and several aspects of impulsivity. First, we found that poor decision-making could not be well predicted by single behavioral and cognitive characteristics when considered separately. By contrast, a combination of independent traits in the same individual, namely risk taking, reward seeking, behavioral inflexibility, as well as motor impulsivity, was highly predictive of poor decision-making. Second, using a reinforcement-learning model of the RGT, we confirmed that only the combination of extreme scores on these traits could induce maladaptive decision-making. Third, the model suggested that a combination of these behavioral traits results in an inaccurate representation of rewards and penalties and inefficient learning of the environment. Poor decision-making appears as a consequence of the over-valuation of high-reward-high-risk options in the task. Such a specific psychological profile could greatly impair clinically healthy individuals in decision-making tasks and may predispose to mental disorders with similar symptoms.

Application of a web-based Decision Support System in risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

2013-04-01

Increasingly, risk information is widely available with the help of advanced technologies such as earth observation satellites, global positioning technologies, coupled with hazard modeling and analysis, and geographical information systems (GIS). Even though it exists, no effort will be put into action if it is not properly presented to the decision makers. These information need to be communicated clearly and show its usefulness so that people can make better informed decision. Therefore, communicating available risk information has become an important challenge and decision support systems have been one of the significant approaches which can help not only in presenting risk information to the decision makers but also in making efficient decisions while reducing human resources and time needed. In this study, the conceptual framework of an internet-based decision support system is presented to highlight its importance role in risk management framework and how it can be applied in case study areas chosen. The main purpose of the proposed system is to facilitate the available risk information in risk reduction by taking into account of the changes in climate, land use and socio-economic along with the risk scenarios. It allows the users to formulate, compare and select risk reduction scenarios (mainly for floods and landslides) through an enhanced participatory platform with diverse stakeholders' involvement in the decision making process. It is based on the three-tier (client-server) architecture which integrates web-GIS plus DSS functionalities together with cost benefit analysis and other supporting tools. Embedding web-GIS provides its end users to make better planning and informed decisions referenced to a geographical location, which is the one of the essential factors in disaster risk reduction programs. Different risk reduction measures of a specific area (local scale) will be evaluated using this web-GIS tool, available risk scenarios obtained from Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) model and the knowledge collected from experts. The visualization of the risk reduction scenarios can also be shared among the users on the web to support the on-line participatory process. In addition, cost-benefit ratios of the different risk reduction scenarios can be prepared in order to serve as inputs for high-level decision makers. The most appropriate risk reduction scenarios will be chosen using Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) method by weighting different parameters according to the preferences and criteria defined by the users. The role of public participation has been changing from one-way communication between authorities, experts, stakeholders and citizens towards more intensive two-way interaction. Involving the affected public and interest groups can enhance the level of legitimacy, transparency, and confidence in the decision making process. Due to its important part in decision making, online participatory tool is included in the DSS in order to allow the involved stakeholders interactively in risk reduction and be aware of the existing vulnerability conditions of the community. Moreover, it aims to achieve a more transparent and better informed decision-making process. The system is under in progress and the first tools implemented will be presented showing the wide possibilities of new web technologies which can have a great impact on the decision making process. It will be applied in four pilot areas in Europe: French Alps, North Eastern Italy, Romania and Poland. Nevertheless, the framework will be designed and implemented in a way to be applicable in any other regions.

Neural correlates of value, risk, and risk aversion contributing to decision making under risk.

PubMed

Christopoulos, George I; Tobler, Philippe N; Bossaerts, Peter; Dolan, Raymond J; Schultz, Wolfram

2009-10-07

Decision making under risk is central to human behavior. Economic decision theory suggests that value, risk, and risk aversion influence choice behavior. Although previous studies identified neural correlates of decision parameters, the contribution of these correlates to actual choices is unknown. In two different experiments, participants chose between risky and safe options. We identified discrete blood oxygen level-dependent (BOLD) correlates of value and risk in the ventral striatum and anterior cingulate, respectively. Notably, increasing inferior frontal gyrus activity to low risk and safe options correlated with higher risk aversion. Importantly, the combination of these BOLD responses effectively decoded the behavioral choice. Striatal value and cingulate risk responses increased the probability of a risky choice, whereas inferior frontal gyrus responses showed the inverse relationship. These findings suggest that the BOLD correlates of decision factors are appropriate for an ideal observer to detect behavioral choices. More generally, these biological data contribute to the validity of the theoretical decision parameters for actual decisions under risk.

Emotion regulation and decision making under risk and uncertainty.

PubMed

Heilman, Renata M; Crişan, Liviu G; Houser, Daniel; Miclea, Mircea; Miu, Andrei C

2010-04-01

It is well established that emotion plays a key role in human social and economic decision making. The recent literature on emotion regulation (ER), however, highlights that humans typically make efforts to control emotion experiences. This leaves open the possibility that decision effects previously attributed to acute emotion may be a consequence of acute ER strategies such as cognitive reappraisal and expressive suppression. In Study 1, we manipulated ER of laboratory-induced fear and disgust, and found that the cognitive reappraisal of these negative emotions promotes risky decisions (reduces risk aversion) in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task and is associated with increased performance in the prehunch/hunch period of the Iowa Gambling Task. In Study 2, we found that naturally occurring negative emotions also increase risk aversion in Balloon Analogue Risk Task, but the incidental use of cognitive reappraisal of emotions impedes this effect. We offer evidence that the increased effectiveness of cognitive reappraisal in reducing the experience of emotions underlies its beneficial effects on decision making. Copyright 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

Do (un)certainty appraisal tendencies reverse the influence of emotions on risk taking in sequential tasks?

PubMed

Bagneux, Virginie; Bollon, Thierry; Dantzer, Cécile

2012-01-01

According to the Appraisal-Tendency Framework (Han, Lerner, & Keltner, 2007), certainty-associated emotions increase risk taking compared with uncertainty-associated emotions. To date, this general effect has only been shown in static judgement and decision-making paradigms; therefore, the present study tested the effect of certainty on risk taking in a sequential decision-making task. We hypothesised that the effect would be reversed due to the kind of processing involved, as certainty is considered to encourage heuristic processing that takes into account the emotional cues arising from previous decisions, whereas uncertainty leads to more systematic processing. One hundred and one female participants were induced to feel one of three emotions (film clips) before performing a decision-making task involving risk (Game of Dice Task; Brand et al., 2005). As expected, the angry and happy participants (certainty-associated emotions) were more likely than the fearful participants (uncertainty-associated emotion) to make safe decisions (vs. risky decisions).

An electrophysiological index of changes in risk decision-making strategies.

PubMed

Zhang, Dandan; Gu, Ruolei; Wu, Tingting; Broster, Lucas S; Luo, Yi; Jiang, Yang; Luo, Yue-jia

2013-07-01

Human decision-making is significantly modulated by previously experienced outcomes. Using event-related potentials (ERPs), we examined whether ERP components evoked by outcome feedbacks could serve as biomarkers to signal the influence of current outcome evaluation on subsequent decision-making. In this study, 18 adult volunteers participated in a simple monetary gambling task, in which they were asked to choose between two options that differed in risk. Their decisions were immediately followed by outcome presentation. Temporospatial principle component analysis (PCA) was applied to the outcome-onset locked ERPs in the 200-1000 ms time window. The PCA factors that approximated classical ERP components (P2, feedback-related negativity, P3a, and P3b) in terms of time course and scalp distribution were tested for their association with subsequent decision-making strategies. Our results revealed that a fronto-central PCA factor approximating the classical P3a was related to changes of decision-making strategies on subsequent trials. The decision to switch between high- and low-risk options resulted in a larger P3a relative to the decision to retain the same choice. According to the results, we suggest that the amplitude of the fronto-central P3a is an electrophysiological index of the influence of current outcome on subsequent risk decision-making. Furthermore, the ERP source analysis indicated that the activations of the frontopolar cortex and sensorimotor cortex were involved in subsequent changes of strategies, which enriches our understanding of the neural mechanisms of adjusting decision-making strategies based on previous experience. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An electrophysiological index of changes in risk decision-making strategies

PubMed Central

Zhang, Dandan; Gu, Ruolei; Wu, Tingting; Broster, Lucas S.; Luo, Yi; Jiang, Yang; Luo, Yue-jia

2014-01-01

Human decision-making is significantly modulated by previously experienced outcomes. Using event-related potentials (ERPs), we examined whether ERP components evoked by outcome feedbacks could serve as biomarkers to signal the influence of current outcome evaluation on subsequent decision-making. In this study, eighteen adult volunteers participated in a simple monetary gambling task, in which they were asked to choose between two options that differed in risk. Their decisions were immediately followed by outcome presentation. Temporospatial principle component analysis (PCA) was applied to the outcome-onset locked ERPs in the -200 – 1000 ms time window. The PCA factors that approximated classical ERP components (P2, feedback-related negativity, P3a, & P3b) in terms of time course and scalp distribution were tested for their association with subsequent decision-making strategies. Our results revealed that a fronto-central PCA factor approximating the classical P3a was related to changes of decision-making strategies on subsequent trials. The decision to switch between high- and low-risk options resulted in a larger P3a relative to the decision to retain the same choice. According to the results, we suggest the amplitude of the fronto-central P3a is an electrophysiological index of the influence of current outcome on subsequent risk decision-making. Furthermore, the ERP source analysis indicated that the activations of the frontopolar cortex and sensorimotor cortex were involved in subsequent changes of strategies, which enriches our understanding of the neural mechanisms of adjusting decision-making strategies based on previous experience. PMID:23643796

The relationship between risk factors and aeronautical decision making in the flight training environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetmore, Michael J.

The purpose of this applied dissertation was to investigate the relationship between risk factors and aeronautical decision making in the flight training environment using a quantitative, non-experimental, ex post facto research design. All 75 of the flight training accidents that involved a fatality from the years 2001-2003 were selected for study from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) aviation accident database. Objective evidence from the Factual Reports was used to construct accident chains and to code and quantify total risk factors and total poor aeronautical decisions. The data were processed using correlational statistical tests at the 1% significance level. There was a statistically significant relationship between total risk factors per flight and poor decisions per flight. Liveware risks were the most prevalent risk factor category. More poor decisions were made during preflight than any other phase of flight. Pilots who made multiple poor decisions per flight had significantly higher risk factors per flight. A risk factor threat to decision making chart is presented for use by flight instructors and/or flight training organizations. The main threat to validity of this study was the NTSB accident investigation team investigative equality assumption.

Impaired Decision-Making, Higher Impulsivity, and Drug Severity in Substance Dependence and Pathological Gambling.

PubMed

Krmpotich, Theodore; Mikulich-Gilbertson, Susan; Sakai, Joseph; Thompson, Laetitia; Banich, Marie T; Tanabe, Jody

2015-01-01

Substance use disorder is characterized by impaired decision making, impulsivity, and risk taking. Pathological gambling shares many of these characteristics, and having both diagnoses may be associated with greater problems than either diagnosis alone. We investigated whether among substance-dependent individuals, comorbid pathological gambling would be associated with worse decision making, greater impulsivity, risk taking, and drug severity. Ninety-six substance-dependent individuals were recruited from a residential treatment program and divided into 1 of the 2 groups depending on whether they met Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, criteria for pathological gambling (SDPG, n = 26) or not (SD, n = 70). Ninety-two controls were recruited from the community. Participants completed a decision-making task (modified Iowa Gambling Task), measures of impulsivity (Barratt Impulsivity Scale and Delay Discounting), and risk taking (Balloon Analog Risk Task). Decision making was analyzed using a computational model. We tested for group differences using analysis of covariance or Kruskal-Wallis and appropriate post-hoc tests. The groups differed in decision-making parameters (P < 0.001) and self-reported impulsivity (P < 0.001). All post-hoc comparisons were significant on these measures, and indicated stepwise changes in controls, followed by SD, followed by SDPG, with SDPG performing worse on decision making and being more impulsive. Compared with SD, SDPG had greater drug severity (P < 0.001). No group differences were observed in delay discounting or risk taking. Compared with individuals with substance dependence without pathological gambling, those with both disorders demonstrated worse decision making and significantly more drug-related symptoms. When evaluating patients with substance dependence, clinicians should consider diagnostic assessments for gambling, as the co-occurrence of both disorders may impact clinical characteristics.

Decision Making in Action: Applying Research to Practice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith; Hart, Sandra G. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment: Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relations between leadership, communication, decision making and overall crew performance. Implications of these findings for training will be discussed.

Influence Diagrams as Decision-Making Tools for Pesticide Risk Management

EPA Science Inventory

The pesticide policy arena is filled with discussion of probabilistic approaches to assess ecological risk, however, similar discussions about implementing formal probabilistic methods in pesticide risk decision making are less common. An influence diagram approach is proposed f...

The role of risk aversion in non-conscious decision making.

PubMed

Wang, Shuo; Krajbich, Ian; Adolphs, Ralph; Tsuchiya, Naotsugu

2012-01-01

To what extent can people choose advantageously without knowing why they are making those choices? This hotly debated question has capitalized on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), in which people often learn to choose advantageously without appearing to know why. However, because the IGT is unconstrained in many respects, this finding remains debated and other interpretations are possible (e.g., risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, limits of working memory, or insensitivity to reward/punishment can explain the finding of the IGT). Here we devised an improved variant of the IGT in which the deck-payoff contingency switches after subjects repeatedly choose from a good deck, offering the statistical power of repeated within-subject measures based on learning the reward contingencies associated with each deck. We found that participants exhibited low confidence in their choices, as probed with post-decision wagering, despite high accuracy in selecting advantageous decks in the task, which is putative evidence for non-conscious decision making. However, such a behavioral dissociation could also be explained by risk aversion, a tendency to avoid risky decisions under uncertainty. By explicitly measuring risk aversion for each individual, we predicted subjects' post-decision wagering using Bayesian modeling. We found that risk aversion indeed does play a role, but that it did not explain the entire effect. Moreover, independently measured risk aversion was uncorrelated with risk aversion exhibited during our version of the IGT, raising the possibility that the latter risk aversion may be non-conscious. Our findings support the idea that people can make optimal choices without being fully aware of the basis of their decision. We suggest that non-conscious decision making may be mediated by emotional feelings of risk that are based on mechanisms distinct from those that support cognitive assessment of risk.

The Role of Risk Aversion in Non-Conscious Decision Making

PubMed Central

Wang, Shuo; Krajbich, Ian; Adolphs, Ralph; Tsuchiya, Naotsugu

2012-01-01

To what extent can people choose advantageously without knowing why they are making those choices? This hotly debated question has capitalized on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), in which people often learn to choose advantageously without appearing to know why. However, because the IGT is unconstrained in many respects, this finding remains debated and other interpretations are possible (e.g., risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, limits of working memory, or insensitivity to reward/punishment can explain the finding of the IGT). Here we devised an improved variant of the IGT in which the deck-payoff contingency switches after subjects repeatedly choose from a good deck, offering the statistical power of repeated within-subject measures based on learning the reward contingencies associated with each deck. We found that participants exhibited low confidence in their choices, as probed with post-decision wagering, despite high accuracy in selecting advantageous decks in the task, which is putative evidence for non-conscious decision making. However, such a behavioral dissociation could also be explained by risk aversion, a tendency to avoid risky decisions under uncertainty. By explicitly measuring risk aversion for each individual, we predicted subjects’ post-decision wagering using Bayesian modeling. We found that risk aversion indeed does play a role, but that it did not explain the entire effect. Moreover, independently measured risk aversion was uncorrelated with risk aversion exhibited during our version of the IGT, raising the possibility that the latter risk aversion may be non-conscious. Our findings support the idea that people can make optimal choices without being fully aware of the basis of their decision. We suggest that non-conscious decision making may be mediated by emotional feelings of risk that are based on mechanisms distinct from those that support cognitive assessment of risk. PMID:22375133

Neural substrates of reward magnitude, probability, and risk during a wheel of fortune decision-making task.

PubMed

Smith, Bruce W; Mitchell, Derek G V; Hardin, Michael G; Jazbec, Sandra; Fridberg, Daniel; Blair, R James R; Ernst, Monique

2009-01-15

Economic decision-making involves the weighting of magnitude and probability of potential gains/losses. While previous work has examined the neural systems involved in decision-making, there is a need to understand how the parameters associated with decision-making (e.g., magnitude of expected reward, probability of expected reward and risk) modulate activation within these neural systems. In the current fMRI study, we modified the monetary wheel of fortune (WOF) task [Ernst, M., Nelson, E.E., McClure, E.B., Monk, C.S., Munson, S., Eshel, N., et al. (2004). Choice selection and reward anticipation: an fMRI study. Neuropsychologia 42(12), 1585-1597.] to examine in 25 healthy young adults the neural responses to selections of different reward magnitudes, probabilities, or risks. Selection of high, relative to low, reward magnitude increased activity in insula, amygdala, middle and posterior cingulate cortex, and basal ganglia. Selection of low-probability, as opposed to high-probability reward, increased activity in anterior cingulate cortex, as did selection of risky, relative to safe reward. In summary, decision-making that did not involve conflict, as in the magnitude contrast, recruited structures known to support the coding of reward values, and those that integrate motivational and perceptual information for behavioral responses. In contrast, decision-making under conflict, as in the probability and risk contrasts, engaged the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex whose role in conflict monitoring is well established. However, decision-making under conflict failed to activate the structures that track reward values per se. Thus, the presence of conflict in decision-making seemed to significantly alter the pattern of neural responses to simple rewards. In addition, this paradigm further clarifies the functional specialization of the cingulate cortex in processes of decision-making.

Cognitive and Emotional Factors Predicting Decisional Conflict among High-Risk Breast Cancer Survivors Who Receive Uninformative BRCA1/2 Results

PubMed Central

Rini, Christine; O’Neill, Suzanne C.; Valdimarsdottir, Heiddis; Goldsmith, Rachel E.; DeMarco, Tiffani A.; Peshkin, Beth N.; Schwartz, Marc D.

2012-01-01

Objective To investigate high-risk breast cancer survivors’ risk reduction decision making and decisional conflict after an uninformative BRCA1/2 test. Design Prospective, longitudinal study of 182 probands undergoing BRCA1/2 testing, with assessments 1-, 6-, and 12-months post-disclosure. Measures Primary predictors were health beliefs and emotional responses to testing assessed 1-month post-disclosure. Main outcomes included women’s perception of whether they had made a final risk management decision (decision status) and decisional conflict related to this issue. Results There were four patterns of decision making, depending on how long it took women to make a final decision and the stability of their decision status across assessments. Late decision makers and non-decision makers reported the highest decisional conflict; however, substantial numbers of women—even early and intermediate decision makers—reported elevated decisional conflict. Analyses predicting decisional conflict 1- and 12-months post-disclosure found that, after accounting for controls and decision status, health beliefs and emotional factors predicted decisional conflict at different timepoints, with health beliefs more important one month after test disclosure and health beliefs more important one year later. Conclusion Many of these women may benefit from decision making assistance. PMID:19751083

Measurement and Modelling: Sequential Use of Analytical Techniques in a Study of Risk-Taking in Decision-Making by School Principals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trimmer, Karen

2016-01-01

This paper investigates reasoned risk-taking in decision-making by school principals using a methodology that combines sequential use of psychometric and traditional measurement techniques. Risk-taking is defined as when decisions are made that are not compliant with the regulatory framework, the primary governance mechanism for public schools in…

Perceptions of disease risk: from social construction of subjective judgments to rational decision making.

PubMed

McRoberts, N; Hall, C; Madden, L V; Hughes, G

2011-06-01

Many factors influence how people form risk perceptions. Farmers' perceptions of risk and levels of risk aversion impact on decision-making about such things as technology adoption and disease management practices. Irrespective of the underlying factors that affect risk perceptions, those perceptions can be summarized by variables capturing impact and uncertainty components of risk. We discuss a new framework that has the subjective probability of disease and the cost of decision errors as its central features, which might allow a better integration of social science and epidemiology, to the benefit of plant disease management. By focusing on the probability and cost (or impact) dimensions of risk, the framework integrates research from the social sciences, economics, decision theory, and epidemiology. In particular, we review some useful properties of expected regret and skill value, two measures of expected cost that are particularly useful in the evaluation of decision tools. We highlight decision-theoretic constraints on the usefulness of decision tools that may partly explain cases of failure of adoption. We extend this analysis by considering information-theoretic criteria that link model complexity and relative performance and which might explain why users reject forecasters that impose even moderate increases in the complexity of decision making despite improvements in performance or accept very simple decision tools that have relatively poor performance.

A risk-based decision support framework for selection of appropriate safety measure system for underground coal mines.

PubMed

Samantra, Chitrasen; Datta, Saurav; Mahapatra, Siba Sankar

2017-03-01

In the context of underground coal mining industry, the increased economic issues regarding implementation of additional safety measure systems, along with growing public awareness to ensure high level of workers safety, have put great pressure on the managers towards finding the best solution to ensure safe as well as economically viable alternative selection. Risk-based decision support system plays an important role in finding such solutions amongst candidate alternatives with respect to multiple decision criteria. Therefore, in this paper, a unified risk-based decision-making methodology has been proposed for selecting an appropriate safety measure system in relation to an underground coal mining industry with respect to multiple risk criteria such as financial risk, operating risk, and maintenance risk. The proposed methodology uses interval-valued fuzzy set theory for modelling vagueness and subjectivity in the estimates of fuzzy risk ratings for making appropriate decision. The methodology is based on the aggregative fuzzy risk analysis and multi-criteria decision making. The selection decisions are made within the context of understanding the total integrated risk that is likely to incur while adapting the particular safety system alternative. Effectiveness of the proposed methodology has been validated through a real-time case study. The result in the context of final priority ranking is seemed fairly consistent.

Risk, rationality, and community: Psychology, ethnography, and transactions in the risk management process

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cantor, R.; Schoepfle, M.

Communities at risk are confronted by an increasingly complex array of opportunities and need for involvement in decisions affecting them. Policy analysis often demands from researchers insights into the complicated process of how best to account for community involvement in decision making. Often, this requires additional understanding of how decisions are made by community members. Researchers trying to capture the important features of decision making will necessarily make assumptions regarding the rationality underlying the decision process. Two implicit and often incompatible sets of research assumptions about decision processes have emerged: outcome rationality and process rationality. Using outcome rationality, the principalmore » goal of risk research often is to predict how people will react to risk regardless of what they say they would do. Using process rationality, the research goal is to determine how people perceive the risks to which they are exposed and how perceptions actually influence responses. The former approach is associated with research in risk communication, conducted by economists and cognitive psychologists; the latter approach is associated with the field of risk negotiation and acceptance, conducted by anthropologists, some sociologists, and planners. This article describes (1) the difference between the assumptions behind outcome and process rationality regarding decision making and the problems resulting from these differences; (2) the promise and limitations of both sets of assumptions; (3) the potential contributions from cognitive psychology, cognitive ethnography, and the theory of transaction costs in reconciling the differences in assumptions and making them more complementary; and (4) the implications of such complementarity.« less

Individual Differences in Subjective Utility and Risk Preferences: The Influence of Hedonic Capacity and Trait Anxiety

PubMed Central

Howlett, Jonathon R.; Paulus, Martin P.

2017-01-01

Individual differences in decision-making are important in both normal populations and psychiatric conditions. Variability in decision-making could be mediated by different subjective utilities or by other processes. For example, while traditional economic accounts attribute risk aversion to a concave subjective utility curve, in practice other factors could affect risk behavior. This distinction may have important implications for understanding the biological basis of variability in decision-making and for developing interventions to improve decision-making. Another aspect of decision-making that may vary between individuals is the sensitivity of subjective utility to counterfactual outcomes (outcomes that could have occurred, but did not). We investigated decision-making in relation to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety, two traits that relate to psychiatric conditions but also vary in the general population. Subjects performed a decision-making task, in which they chose between low- and high-risk gambles to win 0, 20, or 40 points on each trial. Subjects then rated satisfaction after each outcome on a visual analog scale, indicating subjective utility. Hedonic capacity was positively associated with the subjective utility of winning 20 points but was not associated with the concavity of the subjective utility curve (constructed using the mean subjective utility of winning 0, 20, or 40 points). Consistent with economic theory, concavity of the subjective utility curve was associated with risk aversion. Hedonic capacity was independently associated with risk seeking (i.e., not mediated by the shape of the subjective utility curve), while trait anxiety was unrelated to risk preferences. Contrary to our expectations, counterfactual sensitivity was unrelated to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety. Nevertheless, trait anxiety was associated with a self-report measure of regret-proneness, suggesting that counterfactual influences may occur via a pathway that is separate from immediate counterfactual processing biases. Taken together, our results show that hedonic capacity but not trait anxiety affects risk-taking through a mechanism that appears independent of the shape of the subjective utility curve, while hedonic capacity and trait anxiety do not affect the influence of counterfactual outcomes on subjective utility. The results have implications for understanding the underlying mechanisms of variable decision-making and for developing interventions to improve decision-making. PMID:28588508

Individual Differences in Subjective Utility and Risk Preferences: The Influence of Hedonic Capacity and Trait Anxiety.

PubMed

Howlett, Jonathon R; Paulus, Martin P

2017-01-01

Individual differences in decision-making are important in both normal populations and psychiatric conditions. Variability in decision-making could be mediated by different subjective utilities or by other processes. For example, while traditional economic accounts attribute risk aversion to a concave subjective utility curve, in practice other factors could affect risk behavior. This distinction may have important implications for understanding the biological basis of variability in decision-making and for developing interventions to improve decision-making. Another aspect of decision-making that may vary between individuals is the sensitivity of subjective utility to counterfactual outcomes (outcomes that could have occurred, but did not). We investigated decision-making in relation to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety, two traits that relate to psychiatric conditions but also vary in the general population. Subjects performed a decision-making task, in which they chose between low- and high-risk gambles to win 0, 20, or 40 points on each trial. Subjects then rated satisfaction after each outcome on a visual analog scale, indicating subjective utility. Hedonic capacity was positively associated with the subjective utility of winning 20 points but was not associated with the concavity of the subjective utility curve (constructed using the mean subjective utility of winning 0, 20, or 40 points). Consistent with economic theory, concavity of the subjective utility curve was associated with risk aversion. Hedonic capacity was independently associated with risk seeking (i.e., not mediated by the shape of the subjective utility curve), while trait anxiety was unrelated to risk preferences. Contrary to our expectations, counterfactual sensitivity was unrelated to hedonic capacity and trait anxiety. Nevertheless, trait anxiety was associated with a self-report measure of regret-proneness, suggesting that counterfactual influences may occur via a pathway that is separate from immediate counterfactual processing biases. Taken together, our results show that hedonic capacity but not trait anxiety affects risk-taking through a mechanism that appears independent of the shape of the subjective utility curve, while hedonic capacity and trait anxiety do not affect the influence of counterfactual outcomes on subjective utility. The results have implications for understanding the underlying mechanisms of variable decision-making and for developing interventions to improve decision-making.

Making Decisions about an Educational Game, Simulation or Workshop: A 'Game Theory' Perspective.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cryer, Patricia

1988-01-01

Uses game theory to help practitioners make decisions about educational games, simulations, or workshops whose outcomes depend to some extent on chance. Highlights include principles for making decisions involving risk; elementary laws of probability; utility theory; and principles for making decisions involving uncertainty. (eight references)…

The influence of emotion regulation on decision-making under risk.

PubMed

Martin, Laura N; Delgado, Mauricio R

2011-09-01

Cognitive strategies typically involved in regulating negative emotions have recently been shown to also be effective with positive emotions associated with monetary rewards. However, it is less clear how these strategies influence behavior, such as preferences expressed during decision-making under risk, and the underlying neural circuitry. That is, can the effective use of emotion regulation strategies during presentation of a reward-conditioned stimulus influence decision-making under risk and neural structures involved in reward processing such as the striatum? To investigate this question, we asked participants to engage in imagery-focused regulation strategies during the presentation of a cue that preceded a financial decision-making phase. During the decision phase, participants then made a choice between a risky and a safe monetary lottery. Participants who successfully used cognitive regulation, as assessed by subjective ratings about perceived success and facility in implementation of strategies, made fewer risky choices in comparison with trials where decisions were made in the absence of cognitive regulation. Additionally, BOLD responses in the striatum were attenuated during decision-making as a function of successful emotion regulation. These findings suggest that exerting cognitive control over emotional responses can modulate neural responses associated with reward processing (e.g., striatum) and promote more goal-directed decision-making (e.g., less risky choices), illustrating the potential importance of cognitive strategies in curbing risk-seeking behaviors before they become maladaptive (e.g., substance abuse).

Plasticity of Decision-Making Abilities Among Maltreated Adolescents: Evidence From a Random Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Weller, Joshua A.; Leve, Leslie D.; Kim, Hyoun K.; Bhimji, Jabeene; Fisher, Philip A.

2014-01-01

Childhood maltreatment has lasting negative effects throughout the lifespan. Early intervention research has demonstrated that these effects can be remediated through skill-based, family-centered interventions. However, less is known about plasticity during adolescence, and whether interventions are effective many years after children experience maltreatment. This study investigated this question by examining adolescent girls’ ability to make advantageous decisions in the face of risk using a validated decision-making task; performance on this task has been associated with key neural regions involved in affective processing and executive functioning. Maltreated foster girls (n = 92), randomly assigned at age 11 to either an intervention designed to prevent risk-taking behaviors or services as usual (SAU), and non-maltreated age and SES-matched girls living with their biological parent(s) (n = 80), completed a decision-making task (at age 15–17) that assessed risk-taking and sensitivity to expected value, an index of advantageous decision-making. Girls in the SAU condition demonstrated the greatest decision-making difficulties, primarily for risks to avoid losses. In the SAU group, frequency of neglect was related to greater difficulties in this area. Girls in the intervention condition with less neglect performed similarly to non-maltreated peers. This research suggests that early maltreatment may impact decision-making abilities into adolescence and that enriched environments during early adolescence provide a window of plasticity that may ameliorate these negative effects. PMID:25997770

Acute stress affects risk taking but not ambiguity aversion

PubMed Central

Buckert, Magdalena; Schwieren, Christiane; Kudielka, Brigitte M.; Fiebach, Christian J.

2014-01-01

Economic decisions are often made in stressful situations (e.g., at the trading floor), but the effects of stress on economic decision making have not been systematically investigated so far. The present study examines how acute stress influences economic decision making under uncertainty (risk and ambiguity) using financially incentivized lotteries. We varied the domain of decision making as well as the expected value of the risky prospect. Importantly, no feedback was provided to investigate risk taking and ambiguity aversion independent from learning processes. In a sample of 75 healthy young participants, 55 of whom underwent a stress induction protocol (Trier Social Stress Test for Groups), we observed more risk seeking for gains. This effect was restricted to a subgroup of participants that showed a robust cortisol response to acute stress (n = 26). Gambling under ambiguity, in contrast to gambling under risk, was not influenced by the cortisol response to stress. These results show that acute psychosocial stress affects economic decision making under risk, independent of learning processes. Our results further point to the importance of cortisol as a mediator of this effect. PMID:24834024

Acute stress affects risk taking but not ambiguity aversion.

PubMed

Buckert, Magdalena; Schwieren, Christiane; Kudielka, Brigitte M; Fiebach, Christian J

2014-01-01

Economic decisions are often made in stressful situations (e.g., at the trading floor), but the effects of stress on economic decision making have not been systematically investigated so far. The present study examines how acute stress influences economic decision making under uncertainty (risk and ambiguity) using financially incentivized lotteries. We varied the domain of decision making as well as the expected value of the risky prospect. Importantly, no feedback was provided to investigate risk taking and ambiguity aversion independent from learning processes. In a sample of 75 healthy young participants, 55 of whom underwent a stress induction protocol (Trier Social Stress Test for Groups), we observed more risk seeking for gains. This effect was restricted to a subgroup of participants that showed a robust cortisol response to acute stress (n = 26). Gambling under ambiguity, in contrast to gambling under risk, was not influenced by the cortisol response to stress. These results show that acute psychosocial stress affects economic decision making under risk, independent of learning processes. Our results further point to the importance of cortisol as a mediator of this effect.

Risk-Informed Decision Making: Application to Technology Development Alternative Selection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Maggio, Gaspare; Everett, Christopher

2010-01-01

NASA NPR 8000.4A, Agency Risk Management Procedural Requirements, defines risk management in terms of two complementary processes: Risk-informed Decision Making (RIDM) and Continuous Risk Management (CRM). The RIDM process is used to inform decision making by emphasizing proper use of risk analysis to make decisions that impact all mission execution domains (e.g., safety, technical, cost, and schedule) for program/projects and mission support organizations. The RIDM process supports the selection of an alternative prior to program commitment. The CRM process is used to manage risk associated with the implementation of the selected alternative. The two processes work together to foster proactive risk management at NASA. The Office of Safety and Mission Assurance at NASA Headquarters has developed a technical handbook to provide guidance for implementing the RIDM process in the context of NASA risk management and systems engineering. This paper summarizes the key concepts and procedures of the RIDM process as presented in the handbook, and also illustrates how the RIDM process can be applied to the selection of technology investments as NASA's new technology development programs are initiated.

A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

PubMed

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R; Kazandjian, D; Blumenthal, G; Pazdur, R; Woodcock, J

2016-12-01

Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analyses. There is much interest in quantifying regulatory approaches to benefit and risk. In this work the use of a quantitative benefit-risk analysis was applied to regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Benefits and risks associated with 20 US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) decisions associated with a set of candidate treatments submitted between 2003 and 2015 were analyzed. For benefit analysis, the median overall survival (OS) was used where available. When not available, OS was estimated based on overall response rate (ORR) or progression-free survival (PFS). Risks were analyzed based on magnitude (or severity) of harm and likelihood of occurrence. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was explored to demonstrate analysis of systematic uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes considered were found to be consistent with the benefit-risk logic. © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Gunslingers, poker players, and chickens 3: Decision making under mental performance pressure in junior elite athletes.

PubMed

Parkin, Beth L; Walsh, Vincent

2017-01-01

Having investigated the decision making of world class elite and subelite athletes (see Parkin and Walsh, 2017; Parkin et al., 2017), here the abilities of those at the earliest stage of entry to elite sport are examined. Junior elite athletes have undergone initial national selection and are younger than athletes examined previously (mean age 13 years). Decision making under mental pressure is explored in this sample. During performance an athlete encounters a wide array of mental pressures; these include the psychological impact of errors, negative feedback, and requirements for sustained attention in a dynamic environment (Anshel and Wells, 2000; Mellalieu et al., 2009). Such factors increase the cognitive demands of the athletes, inducing distracting anxiety-related thoughts known as rumination (Beilock and Gray, 2007). Mental pressure has been shown to reduce performance of decision-making tasks where reward and loss contingencies are explicit, with a shift toward increased risk taking (Pabst et al., 2013; Starcke et al., 2011). Mental pressure has been shown to be detrimental to decision-making speed in comparison to physical stress, highlighting the importance of considering a range of different pressures encountered by athletes (Hepler, 2015). To investigate the influence of mental pressure on key indicators of decision making in junior elite athletes. This chapter concludes a wider project examining decision making across developmental stages in elite sport. The work further explores how psychological insights can be applied in an elite sporting environment and in particular tailored to the requirements of junior athletes. Seventeen junior elite athletes (10 males, mean age: 13.80 years) enrolled on a national youth athletic development program participated in the study. Performance across three categories of decision making was assessed under conditions of low and high mental pressure. Decision making under risk was measured via the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT; Rogers et al., 1999), decision making under uncertainty via the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART; Lejuez et al., 2002), and fast reactive responses to perceptual stimuli via the Visual Search Task (Treisman, 1982). Mental pressure was induced with the addition of a concurrent verbal memory task, used to increase cognitive load and mimic the distracting effects of anxiety-related rumination. In junior elite athletes, fast reactive responses to perceptual stimuli (on the Visual Search Task) were slower under conditions of mental pressure. For decision making under risk there was an interaction of mental pressure and gender on the amount of points gambled, under pressure there was a higher level of risk taking in male athletes compared to females. There was no influence of mental pressure on decision making under uncertainity. There were no significant correlations in the degree to which individual's responses changed under pressure across the three measures of decision making. When assessing the applicability of results based on group averages there were no junior elite athletes who showed an "average" response (within 1SD of the mean) to mental pressure across all the three decision-making tasks. Mental pressure affects decision making in a sample of junior elite athletes, with a slowing of response times, and modulations to performance of decision making under risk that have a high requirement for working memory. In relation to sport, these findings suggest that novel situations that place high cognitive demands on the athlete may be particularly influenced by mental pressure. The application of this work in junior elite athletes included the feedback of individual results and the implementation of a decision-making taxonomy. © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decision on risk-averse dual-channel supply chain under demand disruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Bo; Jin, Zijie; Liu, Yanping; Yang, Jianbo

2018-02-01

We studied dual-channel supply chains using centralized and decentralized decision-making models. We also conducted a comparative analysis of the decisions before and after demand disruption. The study shows that the amount of change in decision-making is a linear function of the amount of demand disruption, and it is independent of the risk-averse coefficient. The optimal sales volume decision of the disturbing supply chain is related to market share and demand disruption in the decentralized decision-making model. The optimal decision is only influenced by demand disruption in the centralized decision-making model. The stability of the sales volume of the two models is related to market share and demand disruption. The optimal system production of the two models shows robustness, but their stable internals are different.

Linguistic Multi-Attribute Group Decision Making with Risk Preferences and Its Use in Low-Carbon Tourism Destination Selection.

PubMed

Lin, Hui; Wang, Zhou-Jing

2017-09-17

Low-carbon tourism plays an important role in carbon emission reduction and environmental protection. Low-carbon tourism destination selection often involves multiple conflicting and incommensurate attributes or criteria and can be modelled as a multi-attribute decision-making problem. This paper develops a framework to solve multi-attribute group decision-making problems, where attribute evaluation values are provided as linguistic terms and the attribute weight information is incomplete. In order to obtain a group risk preference captured by a linguistic term set with triangular fuzzy semantic information, a nonlinear programming model is established on the basis of individual risk preferences. We first convert individual linguistic-term-based decision matrices to their respective triangular fuzzy decision matrices, which are then aggregated into a group triangular fuzzy decision matrix. Based on this group decision matrix and the incomplete attribute weight information, a linear program is developed to find an optimal attribute weight vector. A detailed procedure is devised for tackling linguistic multi-attribute group decision making problems. A low-carbon tourism destination selection case study is offered to illustrate how to use the developed group decision-making model in practice.

Linguistic Multi-Attribute Group Decision Making with Risk Preferences and Its Use in Low-Carbon Tourism Destination Selection

PubMed Central

Lin, Hui; Wang, Zhou-Jing

2017-01-01

Low-carbon tourism plays an important role in carbon emission reduction and environmental protection. Low-carbon tourism destination selection often involves multiple conflicting and incommensurate attributes or criteria and can be modelled as a multi-attribute decision-making problem. This paper develops a framework to solve multi-attribute group decision-making problems, where attribute evaluation values are provided as linguistic terms and the attribute weight information is incomplete. In order to obtain a group risk preference captured by a linguistic term set with triangular fuzzy semantic information, a nonlinear programming model is established on the basis of individual risk preferences. We first convert individual linguistic-term-based decision matrices to their respective triangular fuzzy decision matrices, which are then aggregated into a group triangular fuzzy decision matrix. Based on this group decision matrix and the incomplete attribute weight information, a linear program is developed to find an optimal attribute weight vector. A detailed procedure is devised for tackling linguistic multi-attribute group decision making problems. A low-carbon tourism destination selection case study is offered to illustrate how to use the developed group decision-making model in practice. PMID:28926985

Police Response to Domestic Violence: Making Decisions about Risk and Risk Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perez Trujillo, Monica; Ross, Stuart

2008-01-01

Assessing and responding to risk are key elements in how police respond to domestic violence. However, relatively little is known about the way police make judgments about the risks associated with domestic violence and how these judgments influence their actions. This study examines police decisions about risk in domestic violence incidents when…

Decision theory and the evaluation of risks and benefits of clinical trials.

PubMed

Bernabe, Rosemarie D C; van Thiel, Ghislaine J M W; Raaijmakers, Jan A M; van Delden, Johannes J M

2012-12-01

Research ethics committees (RECs) are tasked to assess the risks and the benefits of a clinical trial. In previous studies, it was shown that RECs find this task difficult, if not impossible, to do. The current approaches to benefit-risk assessment (i.e. Component Analysis and the Net Risk Test) confound the various risk-benefit tasks, and as such, make balancing impossible. In this article, we show that decision theory, specifically through the expected utility theory and multiattribute utility theory, enable for an explicit and ethically weighted risk-benefit evaluation. This makes a balanced ethical justification possible, and thus a more rationally defensible decision making. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applying the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) to support risk-informed decision making: The Gold Pan Fire, Bitterroot National Forest, Montana, USA

Treesearch

Erin K. Noonan-Wright; Tonja S. Opperman

2015-01-01

In response to federal wildfire policy changes, risk-informed decision-making by way of improved decision support, is increasingly becoming a component of managing wildfires. As fire incidents escalate in size and complexity, the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS) provides support with different analytical tools as fire conditions change. We demonstrate the...

Cognitive and emotional factors predicting decisional conflict among high-risk breast cancer survivors who receive uninformative BRCA1/2 results.

PubMed

Rini, Christine; O'Neill, Suzanne C; Valdimarsdottir, Heiddis; Goldsmith, Rachel E; Jandorf, Lina; Brown, Karen; DeMarco, Tiffani A; Peshkin, Beth N; Schwartz, Marc D

2009-09-01

To investigate high-risk breast cancer survivors' risk reduction decision making and decisional conflict after an uninformative BRCA1/2 test. Prospective, longitudinal study of 182 probands undergoing BRCA1/2 testing, with assessments 1-, 6-, and 12-months postdisclosure. Primary predictors were health beliefs and emotional responses to testing assessed 1-month postdisclosure. Main outcomes included women's perception of whether they had made a final risk management decision (decision status) and decisional conflict related to this issue. There were four patterns of decision making, depending on how long it took women to make a final decision and the stability of their decision status across assessments. Late decision makers and nondecision makers reported the highest decisional conflict; however, substantial numbers of women--even early and intermediate decision makers--reported elevated decisional conflict. Analyses predicting decisional conflict 1- and 12-months postdisclosure found that, after accounting for control variables and decision status, health beliefs and emotional factors predicted decisional conflict at different timepoints, with health beliefs more important 1 month after test disclosure and emotional factors more important 1 year later. Many of these women may benefit from decision making assistance. Copyright 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MEASURES OF IMPULSIVITY AND ALCOHOL MISUSE: AN INTEGRATIVE STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELING APPROACH

PubMed Central

Courtney, Kelly E.; Arellano, Ryan; Barkley-Levenson, Emily; Gálvan, Adriana; Poldrack, Russell A.; MacKillop, James; Jentsch, J. David; Ray, Lara A.

2011-01-01

Background Higher levels of impulsivity have been implicated in the development of alcohol use disorders. Recent findings suggest that impulsivity is not a unitary construct, highlighted by the diverse ways in which the various measures of impulsivity relate to alcohol use outcomes. This study simultaneously tested the following dimensions of impulsivity as determinants of alcohol use and alcohol problems: risky decision-making, self-reported risk attitudes, response inhibition, and impulsive decision-making. Method Participants were a community sample of non-treatment seeking problem drinkers (N = 158). Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) analyses employed behavioral measures of impulsive decision-making (Delay Discounting Task, DDT), response inhibition (Stop Signal Task, SST), and risky decision-making (Balloon Analogue Risk Task, BART), and a self-report measure of risk attitudes (Domain-specific Risk-attitude Scale, DOSPERT), as predictors of alcohol use and of alcohol-related problems in this sample. Results The model fit well, accounting for 38% of the variance in alcohol problems, and identified two impulsivity dimensions that significantly loaded onto alcohol outcomes: (1) impulsive decision-making, indexed by the DDT; and (2) risky decision-making, measured by the BART. Conclusions The impulsive decision-making dimension of impulsivity, indexed by the DDT, was the strongest predictor of alcohol use and alcohol pathology in this sample of problem drinkers. Unexpectedly, a negative relationship was found between risky decision-making and alcohol problems. The results highlight the importance of considering the distinct facets of impulsivity in order to elucidate their individual and combined effects on alcohol use initiation, escalation, and dependence. PMID:22091877

The social nature of engineering and its implications for risk taking.

PubMed

Ross, Allison; Athanassoulis, Nafsika

2010-03-01

Making decisions with an, often significant, element of risk seems to be an integral part of many of the projects of the diverse profession of engineering. Whether it be decisions about the design of products, manufacturing processes, public works, or developing technological solutions to environmental, social and global problems, risk taking seems inherent to the profession. Despite this, little attention has been paid to the topic and specifically to how our understanding of engineering as a distinctive profession might affect how we should make decisions under risk. This paper seeks to remedy this, firstly by offering a nuanced account of risk and then by considering how specific claims about our understanding of engineering as a social profession, with corresponding social values and obligations, should inform how we make decisions about risk in this context.

Modulating activity in the prefrontal cortex changes decision-making for risky gains and losses: a transcranial direct current stimulation study.

PubMed

Ye, Hang; Chen, Shu; Huang, Daqiang; Wang, Siqi; Luo, Jun

2015-06-01

When making choices under uncertainty, people usually consider both the risks and benefits of each option. Previous studies have found that weighing of risks and benefits during decision-making involves a complex neural network that includes the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), but the causal effect of this network on risk decision-making has remained unclear. This experiment was based on a risk-measurement table designed to provide a direct measure of risk preference, with a weighted value of the choices (denoted as weighted risk aversion, WRA) as an index of the participant's degree of risk aversion. We studied whether bifrontal transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) applied over the right and left prefrontal cortex can change the balance of risky vs. safe responses under both gain frame and loss frame. A total of 60 volunteers performed risk tasks while receiving either anodal over the right with cathodal over the left DLPFC, anodal over the left with cathodal over the right DLPFC, or sham stimulation. The participants tended to choose more risky options in the gain frame and more safe options in the loss frame after the right anodal/left cathodal tDCS. We also found that right anodal/left cathodal tDCS significantly decreased the WRA values compared with those associated with sham stimulation. These findings extend the notion that DLPFC activity is critical for risk decision-making, indicating an asymmetric role of the right DLPFC in the gain frame vs. the loss frame of risk decision-making. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Of black swans and tossed coins: is the description-experience gap in risky choice limited to rare events?

PubMed

Ludvig, Elliot A; Spetch, Marcia L

2011-01-01

When faced with risky decisions, people tend to be risk averse for gains and risk seeking for losses (the reflection effect). Studies examining this risk-sensitive decision making, however, typically ask people directly what they would do in hypothetical choice scenarios. A recent flurry of studies has shown that when these risky decisions include rare outcomes, people make different choices for explicitly described probabilities than for experienced probabilistic outcomes. Specifically, rare outcomes are overweighted when described and underweighted when experienced. In two experiments, we examined risk-sensitive decision making when the risky option had two equally probable (50%) outcomes. For experience-based decisions, there was a reversal of the reflection effect with greater risk seeking for gains than for losses, as compared to description-based decisions. This fundamental difference in experienced and described choices cannot be explained by the weighting of rare events and suggests a separate subjective utility curve for experience.

Of Black Swans and Tossed Coins: Is the Description-Experience Gap in Risky Choice Limited to Rare Events?

PubMed Central

Ludvig, Elliot A.; Spetch, Marcia L.

2011-01-01

When faced with risky decisions, people tend to be risk averse for gains and risk seeking for losses (the reflection effect). Studies examining this risk-sensitive decision making, however, typically ask people directly what they would do in hypothetical choice scenarios. A recent flurry of studies has shown that when these risky decisions include rare outcomes, people make different choices for explicitly described probabilities than for experienced probabilistic outcomes. Specifically, rare outcomes are overweighted when described and underweighted when experienced. In two experiments, we examined risk-sensitive decision making when the risky option had two equally probable (50%) outcomes. For experience-based decisions, there was a reversal of the reflection effect with greater risk seeking for gains than for losses, as compared to description-based decisions. This fundamental difference in experienced and described choices cannot be explained by the weighting of rare events and suggests a separate subjective utility curve for experience. PMID:21673807

Making Invasion models useful for decision makers; incorporating uncertainty, knowledge gaps, and decision-making preferences

Treesearch

Denys Yemshanov; Frank H Koch; Mark Ducey

2015-01-01

Uncertainty is inherent in model-based forecasts of ecological invasions. In this chapter, we explore how the perceptions of that uncertainty can be incorporated into the pest risk assessment process. Uncertainty changes a decision maker’s perceptions of risk; therefore, the direct incorporation of uncertainty may provide a more appropriate depiction of risk. Our...

Structured decision making for managing pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sells, Sarah N.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.

2016-01-01

Good decision-making is essential to conserving wildlife populations. Although there may be multiple ways to address a problem, perfect solutions rarely exist. Managers are therefore tasked with identifying decisions that will best achieve desired outcomes. Structured decision making (SDM) is a method of decision analysis used to identify the most effective, efficient, and realistic decisions while accounting for values and priorities of the decision maker. The stepwise process includes identifying the management problem, defining objectives for solving the problem, developing alternative approaches to achieve the objectives, and formally evaluating which alternative is most likely to accomplish the objectives. The SDM process can be more effective than informal decision-making because it provides a transparent way to quantitatively evaluate decisions for addressing multiple management objectives while incorporating science, uncertainty, and risk tolerance. To illustrate the application of this process to a management need, we present an SDM-based decision tool developed to identify optimal decisions for proactively managing risk of pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) in Montana. Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for managers due to long-term impacts to herds, epistemic uncertainty in timing and location of future epizootics, and consequent difficulty knowing how or when to manage risk. The decision tool facilitates analysis of alternative decisions for how to manage herds based on predictions from a risk model, herd-specific objectives, and predicted costs and benefits of each alternative. Decision analyses for 2 example herds revealed that meeting management objectives necessitates specific approaches unique to each herd. The analyses showed how and under what circumstances the alternatives are optimal compared to other approaches and current management. Managers can be confident that these decisions are effective, efficient, and realistic because they explicitly account for important considerations managers implicitly weigh when making decisions, including competing management objectives, uncertainty in potential outcomes, and risk tolerance.

Attraction Effect in Risky Choice Can Be Explained by Subjective Distance Between Choice Alternatives.

PubMed

Mohr, Peter N C; Heekeren, Hauke R; Rieskamp, Jörg

2017-08-21

Individuals make decisions under risk throughout daily life. Standard models of economic decision making typically assume that people evaluate choice options independently. There is, however, substantial evidence showing that this independence assumption is frequently violated in decision making without risk. The present study extends these findings to the domain of decision making under risk. To explain the independence violations, we adapted a sequential sampling model, namely Multialternative Decision Field Theory (MDFT), to decision making under risk and showed how this model can account for the observed preference shifts. MDFT not only better predicts choices compared with the standard Expected Utility Theory, but it also explains individual differences in the size of the observed context effect. Evidence in favor of the chosen option, as predicted by MDFT, was positively correlated with brain activity in the medial orbitofrontal cortex (mOFC) and negatively correlated with brain activity in the anterior insula (aINS). From a neuroscience perspective, the results of the present study show that specific brain regions, such as the mOFC and aINS, not only code the value or risk of a single choice option but also code the evidence in favor of the best option compared with other available choice options.

Risk assessment as standard work in design.

PubMed

Morrill, Patricia W

2013-01-01

This case study article examines a formal risk assessment as part of the decision making process for design solutions in high risk areas. The overview of the Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) tool with examples of its application in hospital building projects will demonstrate the benefit of those structured conversations. This article illustrates how two hospitals used FMEA when integrating operational processes with building projects: (1) adjacency decision for Intensive Care Unit (ICU); and (2) distance concern for handling of specimens from Surgery to Lab. Both case studies involved interviews that exposed facility solution concerns. Just-in-time studies using the FMEA followed the same risk assessment process with the same workshop facilitator involving structured conversations in analyzing risks. In both cases, participants uncovered key areas of risk enabling them to take the necessary next steps. While the focus of this article is not the actual design solution, it is apparent that the risk assessment brought clarity to the situations resulting in prompt decision making about facility solutions. Hospitals are inherently risky environments; therefore, use of the formal risk assessment process, FMEA, is an opportunity for design professionals to apply more rigor to design decision making when facility solutions impact operations in high risk areas. Case study, decision making, hospital, infection control, strategy, work environment.

Gray matter volume and rapid decision-making in major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Nakano, Masayuki; Matsuo, Koji; Nakashima, Mami; Matsubara, Toshio; Harada, Kenichiro; Egashira, Kazuteru; Masaki, Hiroaki; Takahashi, Kanji; Watanabe, Yoshifumi

2014-01-03

Reduced motivation and blunted decision-making are key features of major depressive disorder (MDD). Patients with MDD show abnormal decision-making when given negative feedback regarding a reward. The brain mechanisms underpinning this behavior remain unclear. In the present study, we examined the association between rapid decision-making with negative feedback and brain volume in MDD. Thirty-six patients with MDD and 54 age-, sex- and IQ-matched healthy subjects were studied. Subjects performed a rapid decision-making monetary task in which participants could make high- or low-risk choices. We compared between the 2 groups the probability that a high-risk choice followed negative feedback. In addition, we used voxel-based morphometry (VBM) to compare between group differences in gray matter volume, and the correlation between the probability for high-risk choices and brain volume. Compared to the healthy group, the MDD group showed significantly lower probabilities for high-risk choices following negative feedback. VBM analysis revealed that the MDD group had less gray matter volume in the right medial prefrontal cortex and orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) compared to the healthy group. The right OFC volume was negatively correlated with the probability that a high-risk choice followed negative feedback in patients with MDD. We did not observe these trends in healthy subjects. Patients with MDD show reduced motivation for monetary incentives when they were required to make rapid decisions following negative feedback. We observed a correlation between this reduced motivation and gray matter volume in the medial and ventral prefrontal cortex, which suggests that these brain regions are likely involved in the pathophysiology of aberrant decision-making in MDD. © 2013.

Risk assessment and clinical decision making for colorectal cancer screening.

PubMed

Schroy, Paul C; Caron, Sarah E; Sherman, Bonnie J; Heeren, Timothy C; Battaglia, Tracy A

2015-10-01

Shared decision making (SDM) related to test preference has been advocated as a potentially effective strategy for increasing adherence to colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, yet primary care providers (PCPs) are often reluctant to comply with patient preferences if they differ from their own. Risk stratification advanced colorectal neoplasia (ACN) provides a rational strategy for reconciling these differences. To assess the importance of risk stratification in PCP decision making related to test preference for average-risk patients and receptivity to use of an electronic risk assessment tool for ACN to facilitate SDM. Mixed methods, including qualitative key informant interviews and a cross-sectional survey. PCPs at an urban, academic safety-net institution. Screening preferences, factors influencing patient recommendations and receptivity to use of a risk stratification tool. Nine PCPs participated in interviews and 57 completed the survey. Despite an overwhelming preference for colonoscopy by 95% of respondents, patient risk (67%) and patient preferences (63%) were more influential in their decision making than patient comorbidities (31%; P < 0.001). Age was the single most influential risk factor (excluding family history), with <20% of respondents choosing factors other than age. Most respondents reported that they would be likely to use a risk stratification tool in their practice either 'often' (43%) or sometimes (53%). Risk stratification was perceived to be important in clinical decision making, yet few providers considered risk factors other than age for average-risk patients. Providers were receptive to the use of a risk assessment tool for ACN when recommending an appropriate screening test for select patients. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Insular neural system controls decision-making in healthy and methamphetamine-treated rats

PubMed Central

Mizoguchi, Hiroyuki; Katahira, Kentaro; Inutsuka, Ayumu; Fukumoto, Kazuya; Nakamura, Akihiro; Wang, Tian; Nagai, Taku; Sato, Jun; Sawada, Makoto; Ohira, Hideki; Yamanaka, Akihiro; Yamada, Kiyofumi

2015-01-01

Patients suffering from neuropsychiatric disorders such as substance-related and addictive disorders exhibit altered decision-making patterns, which may be associated with their behavioral abnormalities. However, the neuronal mechanisms underlying such impairments are largely unknown. Using a gambling test, we demonstrated that methamphetamine (METH)-treated rats chose a high-risk/high-reward option more frequently and assigned higher value to high returns than control rats, suggestive of changes in decision-making choice strategy. Immunohistochemical analysis following the gambling test revealed aberrant activation of the insular cortex (INS) and nucleus accumbens in METH-treated animals. Pharmacological studies, together with in vivo microdialysis, showed that the insular neural system played a crucial role in decision-making. Moreover, manipulation of INS activation using designer receptor exclusively activated by designer drug technology resulted in alterations to decision-making. Our findings suggest that the INS is a critical region involved in decision-making and that insular neural dysfunction results in risk-taking behaviors associated with altered decision-making. PMID:26150496

Insular neural system controls decision-making in healthy and methamphetamine-treated rats.

PubMed

Mizoguchi, Hiroyuki; Katahira, Kentaro; Inutsuka, Ayumu; Fukumoto, Kazuya; Nakamura, Akihiro; Wang, Tian; Nagai, Taku; Sato, Jun; Sawada, Makoto; Ohira, Hideki; Yamanaka, Akihiro; Yamada, Kiyofumi

2015-07-21

Patients suffering from neuropsychiatric disorders such as substance-related and addictive disorders exhibit altered decision-making patterns, which may be associated with their behavioral abnormalities. However, the neuronal mechanisms underlying such impairments are largely unknown. Using a gambling test, we demonstrated that methamphetamine (METH)-treated rats chose a high-risk/high-reward option more frequently and assigned higher value to high returns than control rats, suggestive of changes in decision-making choice strategy. Immunohistochemical analysis following the gambling test revealed aberrant activation of the insular cortex (INS) and nucleus accumbens in METH-treated animals. Pharmacological studies, together with in vivo microdialysis, showed that the insular neural system played a crucial role in decision-making. Moreover, manipulation of INS activation using designer receptor exclusively activated by designer drug technology resulted in alterations to decision-making. Our findings suggest that the INS is a critical region involved in decision-making and that insular neural dysfunction results in risk-taking behaviors associated with altered decision-making.

Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

2014-05-01

Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in this case study namely: construction of defense structures, relocation, implementation of an early warning system and spatial planning regulations. Some of the criteria are determined partly in other modules of the CHANGES SDSS, such as the costs for implementation, the risk reduction in monetary values, and societal risk. Other criteria, which could be environmental, economic, cultural, perception in nature, are defined by different stakeholders such as local authorities, expert organizations, private sector, and local public. In the next step, the stakeholders weight the importance of the criteria by pairwise comparison and visualize the decision matrix, which is a matrix based on criteria versus alternatives values. Finally alternatives are ranked by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. We expect that this approach will help the decision makers to ease their works and reduce their costs, because the process is more transparent, more accurate and involves a group decision. In that way there will be more confidence in the overall decision making process. Keywords: MCDM, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), SDSS, Natural Hazard Risk Management

Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

PubMed

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

2016-12-01

The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Frontal, Striatal, and Medial Temporal Sensitivity to Value Distinguishes Risk-Taking from Risk-Aversive Older Adults during Decision Making.

PubMed

Goh, Joshua O S; Su, Yu-Shiang; Tang, Yong-Jheng; McCarrey, Anna C; Tereshchenko, Alexander; Elkins, Wendy; Resnick, Susan M

2016-12-07

Aging compromises the frontal, striatal, and medial temporal areas of the reward system, impeding accurate value representation and feedback processing critical for decision making. However, substantial variability characterizes age-related effects on the brain so that some older individuals evince clear neurocognitive declines whereas others are spared. Moreover, the functional correlates of normative individual differences in older-adult value-based decision making remain unclear. We performed a functional magnetic resonance imaging study in 173 human older adults during a lottery choice task in which costly to more desirable stakes were depicted using low to high expected values (EVs) of points. Across trials that varied in EVs, participants decided to accept or decline the offered stakes to maximize total accumulated points. We found that greater age was associated with less optimal decisions, accepting stakes when losses were likely and declining stakes when gains were likely, and was associated with increased frontal activity for costlier stakes. Critically, risk preferences varied substantially across older adults and neural sensitivity to EVs in the frontal, striatal, and medial temporal areas dissociated risk-aversive from risk-taking individuals. Specifically, risk-averters increased neural responses to increasing EVs as stakes became more desirable, whereas risk-takers increased neural responses with decreasing EV as stakes became more costly. Risk preference also modulated striatal responses during feedback with risk-takers showing more positive responses to gains compared with risk-averters. Our findings highlight the frontal, striatal, and medial temporal areas as key neural loci in which individual differences differentially affect value-based decision-making ability in older adults. Frontal, striatal, and medial temporal functions implicated in value-based decision processing of rewards and costs undergo substantial age-related changes. However, age effects on brain function and cognition differ across individuals. How this normative variation relates to older-adult value-based decision making is unclear. We found that although the ability make optimal decisions declines with age, there is still much individual variability in how this deterioration occurs. Critically, whereas risk-averters showed increased neural activity to increasingly valuable stakes in frontal, striatal, and medial temporal areas, risk-takers instead increased activity as stakes became more costly. Such distinct functional decision-making processing in these brain regions across normative older adults may reflect individual differences in susceptibility to age-related brain changes associated with incipient cognitive impairment. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/3612498-12$15.00/0.

Greater decision-making competence is associated with greater expected-value sensitivity, but not overall risk taking: an examination of concurrent validity.

PubMed

Parker, Andrew M; Weller, Joshua A

2015-01-01

Decision-making competence reflects individual differences in the susceptibility to committing decision-making errors, measured using tasks common from behavioral decision research (e.g., framing effects, under/overconfidence, following decision rules). Prior research demonstrates that those with higher decision-making competence report lower incidence of health-risking and antisocial behaviors, but there has been less focus on intermediate processes that may impact real-world decisions, and, in particular, those implicated by normative models. Here we test the associations between measures of youth decision-making competence (Y-DMC) and one such process, the degree to which individuals make choices consistent with maximizing expected value (EV). Using a task involving hypothetical gambles, we find that greater EV sensitivity is associated with greater Y-DMC. Higher Y-DMC scores are associated with (a) choosing risky options when EV favors those options and (b) avoiding risky options when EV favors a certain option. This relationship is stronger for gambles that involved potential losses. The results suggest that Y-DMC captures decision processes consistent with standard normative evaluations of risky decisions.

Clinician time used for decision making: a best case workflow study using cardiovascular risk assessments and Ask Mayo Expert algorithmic care process models.

PubMed

North, Frederick; Fox, Samuel; Chaudhry, Rajeev

2016-07-20

Risk calculation is increasingly used in lipid management, congestive heart failure, and atrial fibrillation. The risk scores are then used for decisions about statin use, anticoagulation, and implantable defibrillator use. Calculating risks for patients and making decisions based on these risks is often done at the point of care and is an additional time burden for clinicians that can be decreased by automating the tasks and using clinical decision-making support. Using Morae Recorder software, we timed 30 healthcare providers tasked with calculating the overall risk of cardiovascular events, sudden death in heart failure, and thrombotic event risk in atrial fibrillation. Risk calculators used were the American College of Cardiology Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease risk calculator (AHA-ASCVD risk), Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM risk), and CHA2DS2VASc. We also timed the 30 providers using Ask Mayo Expert care process models for lipid management, heart failure management, and atrial fibrillation management based on the calculated risk scores. We used the Mayo Clinic primary care panel to estimate time for calculating an entire panel risk. Mean provider times to complete the CHA2DS2VASc, AHA-ASCVD risk, and SHFM were 36, 45, and 171 s respectively. For decision making about atrial fibrillation, lipids, and heart failure, the mean times (including risk calculations) were 85, 110, and 347 s respectively. Even under best case circumstances, providers take a significant amount of time to complete risk assessments. For a complete panel of patients this can lead to hours of time required to make decisions about prescribing statins, use of anticoagulation, and medications for heart failure. Informatics solutions are needed to capture data in the medical record and serve up automatically calculated risk assessments to physicians and other providers at the point of care.

Dissociable roles for the basolateral amygdala and orbitofrontal cortex in decision-making under risk of punishment.

PubMed

Orsini, Caitlin A; Trotta, Rose T; Bizon, Jennifer L; Setlow, Barry

2015-01-28

Several neuropsychiatric disorders are associated with abnormal decision-making involving risk of punishment, but the neural basis of this association remains poorly understood. Altered activity in brain systems including the basolateral amygdala (BLA) and orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) can accompany these same disorders, and these structures are implicated in some forms of decision-making. The current study investigated the role of the BLA and OFC in decision-making under risk of explicit punishment. Rats were trained in the risky decision-making task (RDT), in which they chose between two levers, one that delivered a small safe reward, and the other that delivered a large reward accompanied by varying risks of footshock punishment. Following training, they received sham or neurotoxic lesions of BLA or OFC, followed by RDT retesting. BLA lesions increased choice of the large risky reward (greater risk-taking) compared to both prelesion performance and sham controls. When reward magnitudes were equated, both BLA lesion and control groups shifted their choice to the safe (no shock) reward lever, indicating that the lesions did not impair punishment sensitivity. In contrast to BLA lesions, OFC lesions significantly decreased risk-taking compared with sham controls, but did not impair discrimination between different reward magnitudes or alter baseline levels of anxiety. Finally, neither lesion significantly affected food-motivated lever pressing under various fixed ratio schedules, indicating that lesion-induced alterations in risk-taking were not secondary to changes in appetitive motivation. Together, these findings indicate distinct roles for the BLA and OFC in decision-making under risk of explicit punishment. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/351368-12$15.00/0.

Return-to-Play in 2017 and the Role of Shared Decision-Making in Patients with Inherited and Acquired Channelopathies and Cardiomyopathies.

PubMed

Afshar, Kia; Bunch, T Jared

2017-09-14

Shared decision-making is based upon a physician-patient encounter in which there is adequate education using aids if needed, a mutual discussion of how to assist the patient in weighing risks and benefits, and a supportive environment that allows the patient to deliberate on the clinical decision and make their own choice. This decision-making paradigm centers on the principles of autonomy and self-determination. Physical activity is a critical part of healthy lifestyle choices that helps lower risk of cardiovascular disease or the progression of it. Exercise is also a significant contributor to quality of life in many patients in additional to the health benefits. In patients with inherited or acquired cardiovascular disease, exercise may increase risk of electrical and hemodynamic instability. There is a paucity of data to guide physicians and committees that create guidelines regarding athletic and fitness participation in these patients, particularly when the patient wants to participate in those activities that are considered moderate-severe in intensity. As a consequence, the principles of shared decision-making are critical for physicians to use to help patients with cardiovascular disease make the best decision regarding fitness participation that will minimize their risk of new disease or progression of their disease and enhance their quality of life.

Neural Basis of Emotional Decision Making in Trait Anxiety

PubMed Central

Xu, Pengfei; Gu, Ruolei; Broster, Lucas S.; Wu, Runguo; Van Dam, Nicholas T.; Jiang, Yang; Fan, Jin

2013-01-01

Although trait anxiety has been associated with risk decision making, whether it is related to risk per se or to the feeling of the risk, as well as the underlying neurocognitive mechanisms, remains unclear. Using a decision-making task with a manipulation of frame (i.e., written description of options as a potential gain or loss) and functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated the neurocognitive relationship between trait anxiety and decision making. The classic framing effect was observed: participants chose the safe option when it was described as a potential gain, but they avoided the same option when it was described as a potential loss. Most importantly, trait anxiety was positively correlated with this behavioral bias. Trait anxiety was also positively correlated with amygdala-based “emotional” system activation and its coupling with the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) when decisions were consistent with the framing effect, but negatively correlated with the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC)-based “analytic” system activation and its connectivity to the vmPFC when decisions ran counter to the framing effect. Our findings suggest that trait anxiety is not associated with subjective risk preference but an evaluative bias of emotional information in decision making, underpinned by a hyperactive emotional system and a hypoactive analytic system in the brain. PMID:24259585

Neural basis of emotional decision making in trait anxiety.

PubMed

Xu, Pengfei; Gu, Ruolei; Broster, Lucas S; Wu, Runguo; Van Dam, Nicholas T; Jiang, Yang; Fan, Jin; Luo, Yue-jia

2013-11-20

Although trait anxiety has been associated with risk decision making, whether it is related to risk per se or to the feeling of the risk, as well as the underlying neurocognitive mechanisms, remains unclear. Using a decision-making task with a manipulation of frame (i.e., written description of options as a potential gain or loss) and functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated the neurocognitive relationship between trait anxiety and decision making. The classic framing effect was observed: participants chose the safe option when it was described as a potential gain, but they avoided the same option when it was described as a potential loss. Most importantly, trait anxiety was positively correlated with this behavioral bias. Trait anxiety was also positively correlated with amygdala-based "emotional" system activation and its coupling with the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) when decisions were consistent with the framing effect, but negatively correlated with the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC)-based "analytic" system activation and its connectivity to the vmPFC when decisions ran counter to the framing effect. Our findings suggest that trait anxiety is not associated with subjective risk preference but an evaluative bias of emotional information in decision making, underpinned by a hyperactive emotional system and a hypoactive analytic system in the brain.

Decision Making in Action

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relations between leadership, communication, decision making and overall crew performance. Implications of these findings for spaceflight and training for offshore installations will be discussed.

Decision Making in Action: Applying Research to Practice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relations between leadership, communication, decision making and overall crew performance. Implications of these findings for spaceflight and training for offshore installations will be discussed.

The influences and neural correlates of past and present during gambling in humans.

PubMed

Sacré, Pierre; Subramanian, Sandya; Kerr, Matthew S D; Kahn, Kevin; Johnson, Matthew A; Bulacio, Juan; González-Martínez, Jorge A; Sarma, Sridevi V; Gale, John T

2017-12-07

During financial decision-making tasks, humans often make "rational" decisions, where they maximize expected reward. However, this rationality may compete with a bias that reflects past outcomes. That is, if one just lost money or won money, this may impact future decisions. It is unclear how past outcomes influence future decisions in humans, and how neural circuits encode present and past information. In this study, six human subjects performed a financial decision-making task while we recorded local field potentials from multiple brain structures. We constructed a model for each subject characterizing bets on each trial as a function of present and past information. The models suggest that some patients are more influenced by previous trial outcomes (i.e., previous return and risk) than others who stick to more fixed decision strategies. In addition, past return and present risk modulated with the activity in the cuneus; while present return and past risk modulated with the activity in the superior temporal gyrus and the angular gyrus, respectively. Our findings suggest that these structures play a role in decision-making beyond their classical functions by incorporating predictions and risks in humans' decision strategy, and provide new insight into how humans link their internal biases to decisions.

Surgical Consultation as Social Process: Implications for Shared Decision Making.

PubMed

Clapp, Justin T; Arriaga, Alexander F; Murthy, Sushila; Raper, Steven E; Schwartz, J Sanford; Barg, Frances K; Fleisher, Lee A

2017-12-12

This qualitative study examines surgical consultation as a social process and assesses its alignment with assumptions of the shared decision-making (SDM) model. SDM stresses the importance of patient preferences and rigorous discussion of therapeutic risks/benefits based on these preferences. However, empirical studies have highlighted discrepancies between SDM and realities of surgical decision making. Qualitative research can inform understanding of the decision-making process and allow for granular assessment of the nature and causes of these discrepancies. We observed consultations between 3 general surgeons and 45 patients considering undergoing 1 of 2 preference-sensitive elective operations: (1) hernia repair, or (2) cholecystectomy. These patients and surgeons also participated in semi-structured interviews. By the time of the consultation, patients and surgeons were predisposed toward certain decisions by preceding events occurring elsewhere. During the visit, surgeons had differential ability to arbitrate surgical intervention and construct the severity of patients' conditions. These upstream dynamics frequently displaced the centrality of the risk/benefit-based consent discussion. The influence of events preceding consultation suggests that decision-making models should account for broader spatiotemporal spans. Given surgeons' authority to define patients' conditions and control service provision, SDM may be premised on an overestimation of patients' power to alter the course of decision making once in a specialist's office. Considering the subordinate role of the risk/benefit discussion in many surgical decisions, it will be important to study if and how the social process of decision making is altered by SDM-oriented decision aids that foreground this discussion.

Multi-view Decision Making (MVDM) Workshop

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-02-01

reflect the realities of system-of-systems development, acquisition, fielding and support: multi-view decision making (MVDM). MVDM addresses the...including mission risk, interoperable acquisition, and operational security and survivability. Hence, a multi-view approach to decision making is

Sensation Seeking and Impulsivity: Combined Associations with Risky Sexual Behavior in a Large Sample of Young Adults

PubMed Central

Charnigo, Richard; Noar, Seth M.; Garnett, Christopher; Crosby, Richard; Palmgreen, Philip; Zimmerman, Rick S.

2015-01-01

Although prior studies have shown that sensation seeking and impulsive decision-making are related to sexual risk-taking, it is still unclear whether these personality traits operate independently or synergistically. The purpose of this study was to elucidate the joint contribution of these personality traits to HIV and sexually transmitted disease (STD) risk behaviors using data from a large sample of sexually active young adults (N = 2,386). Regression modeling indicated that both sensation seeking and impulsive decision-making were consistently associated with sexual risk behaviors across 11 risk-related outcomes. Results further indicated that sensation seeking and impulsive decision-making operated synergistically with respect to the outcome variables of sex acts using drugs, acts with a partner using alcohol, and acts with a partner using drugs. In contrast to this, sensation seeking and impulsive decision-making operated independently with respect to the other sexual risk outcomes. Theoretical implications, as well as implications for HIV/STD prevention among high sensation seekers and impulsive decision-makers, are discussed. PMID:22456443

Scrutinizing screening: a critical interpretive review of primary care provider perspectives on mammography decision-making with average-risk women.

PubMed

Siedlikowski, Sophia; Ells, Carolyn; Bartlett, Gillian

2018-01-01

A decision to undertake screening for breast cancer often takes place within the primary care setting, but current controversies such as overdiagnosis and inconsistent screening recommendations based on evolving evidence render this a challenging process, particularly for average-risk women. Given the responsibility of primary care providers in counseling women in this decision-making process, it is important to understand their thoughts on these controversies and how they manage uncertainty in their practice. To review the perspectives and approaches of primary care providers regarding mammography decision-making with average-risk women. This study is a critical interpretive review of peer-review literature that reports primary care provider perspectives on mammography screening decision-making. Ovid MEDLINE®, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus databases were searched with dates from 2002 to 2017 using search terms related to mammography screening, uncertainty, counseling, decision-making, and primary health care providers. Nine articles were included following a review process involving the three authors. Using an inductive and iterative approach, data were grouped into four thematic categories: (1) perceptions on the effectiveness of screening, screening initiation age, and screening frequency; (2) factors guiding primary care providers in the screening decision-making process, including both provider and patient-related factors, (3) uncertainty faced by primary care providers regarding guidelines and screening discussions with their patients; and (4) informed decision-making with average-risk women, including factors that facilitate and hinder this process. The discussion of results addresses several factors about the diversity of perspectives and practices of physicians counseling average-risk women regarding breast cancer screening. This has implications for the challenge of understanding and explaining evidence, what should be shared with average-risk women considering screening, the forms of knowledge that physicians value to guide screening decision-making, and the consent process for population-based screening initiatives. Within the data, there was little attention placed on how physicians coped with uncertainty in practice. Given the dual responsibility of physicians in caring for both individuals and the larger population, further research should probe more deeply into how they balance their duties to individual patients with those to the larger population they serve.

Effects of stochastic interest rates in decision making under risk: A Markov decision process model for forest management

Treesearch

Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongiorno

2011-01-01

Most economic studies of forest decision making under risk assume a fixed interest rate. This paper investigated some implications of this stochastic nature of interest rates. Markov decision process (MDP) models, used previously to integrate stochastic stand growth and prices, can be extended to include variable interest rates as well. This method was applied to...

The Influence of Emotion Regulation on Decision-making under Risk

PubMed Central

Martin, Laura N.; Delgado, Mauricio R.

2011-01-01

Cognitive strategies typically involved in regulating negative emotions have recently been shown to also be effective with positive emotions associated with monetary rewards. However, it is less clear how these strategies influence behavior, such as preferences expressed during decision-making under risk, and the underlying neural circuitry. That is, can the effective use of emotion regulation strategies during presentation of a reward-conditioned stimulus influence decision-making under risk and neural structures involved in reward processing such as the striatum? To investigate this question, we asked participants to engage in imagery-focused regulation strategies during the presentation of a cue that preceded a financial decision-making phase. During the decision phase, participants then made a choice between a risky and a safe monetary lottery. Participants who successfully used cognitive regulation, as assessed by subjective ratings about perceived success and facility in implementation of strategies, made fewer risky choices in comparison to trials where decisions were made in the absence of cognitive regulation. Additionally, blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) responses in the striatum were attenuated during decision-making as a function of successful emotion regulation. These findings suggest that exerting cognitive control over emotional responses can modulate neural responses associated with reward processing (e.g., striatum), and promote more goal-directed decision-making (e.g., less risky choices), illustrating the potential importance of cognitive strategies in curbing risk-seeking behaviors before they become maladaptive (e.g., substance abuse). PMID:21254801

Individual Differences in Risk Preference Predict Neural Responses during Financial Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Engelmann, Jan B.; Tamir, Diana

2009-01-01

We investigated the neural correlates of subjective valuations during a task involving risky choices about lotteries. Because expected value was held constant across all lotteries, decisions were influenced by subjective preferences, which manifest behaviorally as risk-seeking or risk-averse attitudes. To isolate structures encoding risk preference during choice, we probed for areas showing increased activation as a function of selected risk-level. Such response patterns were obtained in anterior (ACC) and posterior cingulate cortex (PCC), superior frontal gyrus, caudate nucleus, and substantia nigra. Behavioral results revealed the presence of risk-averse and risk-neutral individuals. In parallel, brain signals revealed modulation of activity by risk-attitude during choice. Correlations between risk-seeking attitudes and neural activity during risky choice were obtained in superior and inferior frontal gyri, medial and lateral orbitofrontal cortex, and parahippocampal gyrus, while correlations with risk-averse attitudes were found in the caudate. The dynamics of neural responses relevant to each stage of the task (decision, anticipation, outcome) were investigated via timeseries and conjunction analyses. Though the networks engaged in each of the task stages were mostly distinct, regions of ACC, PCC and caudate were consistently activated during each decision-making phase. These results demonstrate (1) that subjective assessments of risk, as well as individual attitudes toward risk, play a significant role in modulating activity within brain regions recruited during decision-making, and (2) that ACC, PCC and caudate are relevant during each phase of a decision-making task requiring subjective valuations, strengthening the role of these regions in self-referential subjective valuations during choice. PMID:19576868

Metabolic State Alters Economic Decision Making under Risk in Humans

PubMed Central

Drew, Megan E.; Batterham, Rachel L.; Dolan, Raymond J.

2010-01-01

Background Animals' attitudes to risk are profoundly influenced by metabolic state (hunger and baseline energy stores). Specifically, animals often express a preference for risky (more variable) food sources when below a metabolic reference point (hungry), and safe (less variable) food sources when sated. Circulating hormones report the status of energy reserves and acute nutrient intake to widespread targets in the central nervous system that regulate feeding behaviour, including brain regions strongly implicated in risk and reward based decision-making in humans. Despite this, physiological influences per se have not been considered previously to influence economic decisions in humans. We hypothesised that baseline metabolic reserves and alterations in metabolic state would systematically modulate decision-making and financial risk-taking in humans. Methodology/Principal Findings We used a controlled feeding manipulation and assayed decision-making preferences across different metabolic states following a meal. To elicit risk-preference, we presented a sequence of 200 paired lotteries, subjects' task being to select their preferred option from each pair. We also measured prandial suppression of circulating acyl-ghrelin (a centrally-acting orexigenic hormone signalling acute nutrient intake), and circulating leptin levels (providing an assay of energy reserves). We show both immediate and delayed effects on risky decision-making following a meal, and that these changes correlate with an individual's baseline leptin and changes in acyl-ghrelin levels respectively. Conclusions/Significance We show that human risk preferences are exquisitely sensitive to current metabolic state, in a direction consistent with ecological models of feeding behaviour but not predicted by normative economic theory. These substantive effects of state changes on economic decisions perhaps reflect shared evolutionarily conserved neurobiological mechanisms. We suggest that this sensitivity in human risk-preference to current metabolic state has significant implications for both real-world economic transactions and for aberrant decision-making in eating disorders and obesity. PMID:20585383

U.S. EPA Authority to Use Cumulative Risk Assessments in Environmental Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Alves, Sarah; Tilghman, Joan; Rosenbaum, Arlene; Payne-Sturges, Devon C.

2012-01-01

Conventionally, in its decision-making, the U.S. EPA has evaluated the effects and risks associated with a single pollutant in a single exposure medium. In reality, people are exposed to mixtures of pollutants or to the same pollutant through a variety of media, including the air, water, and food. It is now more recognized than before that environmental exposure to pollutants occurs via multiple exposure routes and pathways, including inhalation, ingestion, and dermal absorption. Moreover, chemical, biologic, radiologic, physical, and psychologic stressors are all acknowledged as affecting human health. Although many EPA offices attempt to consider cumulative risk assessment and cumulative effects in various ways, there is no Agency-wide policy for considering these risks and the effects of exposure to these risks when making environmental decisions. This article examines how U.S. courts might assess EPA’s general authority and discretion to use cumulative risk assessment as the basis for developing data in support of environmental decision-making, and how courts might assess the validity of a cumulative risk assessment methodology itself. PMID:22829786

Risk manager formula for success: Influencing decision making.

PubMed

Midgley, Mike

2017-10-01

Providing the ultimate decision makers with a quantitative risk analysis based on thoughtful assessment by the organization's experts enables an efficient decision. © 2017 American Society for Healthcare Risk Management of the American Hospital Association.

77 FR 44613 - Notice of Availability of the External Review Draft of Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-30

... External Review Draft of Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment To Inform Decision Making AGENCY: U.S... external review draft of ``A Framework for Human Health Risk Assessment to Inform Decision Making.'' This... a framework for conducting human health risk assessments that are responsive to the needs of...

Understanding the Harms and Benefits of Cancer Screening: A Model of Factors That Shape Informed Decision Making.

PubMed

Petrova, Dafina; Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Cokely, Edward T

2015-10-01

Decisions about cancer screenings often involve the consideration of complex and counterintuitive evidence. We investigated psychological factors that promote the comprehension of benefits and harms associated with common cancer screenings and their influence on shared decision making. In experiment 1, 256 men received information about PSA-based prostate cancer screening. In experiment 2, 355 women received information about mammography-based breast cancer screening. In both studies, information about potential screening outcomes was provided in 1 of 3 formats: text, a fact box, or a visual aid (e.g., mortality with and without screening and rate of overdiagnosis). We modeled the interplay of comprehension, perceived risks and benefits, intention to participate in screening, and desire for shared decision making. Generally, visual aids were the most effective format, increasing comprehension by up to 18%. Improved comprehension was associated with 1) superior decision making (e.g., fewer intentions to participate in screening when it offered no benefit) and 2) more desire to share in decision making. However, comprehension of the evidence had a limited effect on experienced emotions, risk perceptions, and decision making among those participants who felt that the consequences of cancer were extremely severe. Even when information is counterintuitive and requires the integration of complex harms and benefits, user-friendly risk communications can facilitate comprehension, improve high-stakes decisions, and promote shared decision making. However, previous beliefs about the effectiveness of screening or strong fears about specific cancers may interfere with comprehension and informed decision making. © The Author(s) 2015.

Risky decision-making is associated with residential choice in healthy older adults.

PubMed

Seaman, Kendra L; Stillman, Chelsea M; Howard, Darlene V; Howard, James H

2015-01-01

As our society becomes more mobile and people reside farther away from their immediate families, competent decision-making has become critical for the older adults wishing to maintain their independence. However, very little is known about the relationship between residential choice and decision-making. Here we use the Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART) to examine risk-taking in two samples of older adults, one living in a retirement community and another living independently. We also used a cognitive model to gain insight into the cognitive factors underlying decision-making in these groups. We found that older adults living in a retirement community were more risk averse than their independent counterparts. Furthermore, this difference appeared to be motivated by group differences in initial perception of risk. This study suggests an intriguing difference between these two residential groups, and also points to the utility of using laboratory methods in research on real-world problems.

Developmental changes in decision making under risk: The role of executive functions and reasoning abilities in 8- to 19-year-old decision makers.

PubMed

Schiebener, Johannes; García-Arias, María; García-Villamisar, Domingo; Cabanyes-Truffino, Javier; Brand, Matthias

2015-01-01

Previous studies have shown that children and adolescents often tend toward risky decisions despite explicit knowledge about the potential negative consequences. This phenomenon has been suggested to be associated with the immaturity of brain areas involved in cognitive control functions. Particularly, "frontal lobe functions," such as executive functions and reasoning, mature until young adulthood and are thought to be involved in age-related changes in decision making under explicit risk conditions. We investigated 112 participants, aged 8-19 years, with a frequently used task assessing decisions under risk, the Game of Dice Task (GDT). Additionally, we administered the Modified Card Sorting Test assessing executive functioning (categorization, cognitive flexibility, and strategy maintenance) as well as the Ravens Progressive Matrices assessing reasoning. The results showed that risk taking in the GDT decreased with increasing age and this effect was not moderated by reasoning but by executive functions: Particularly, young persons with weak executive functioning showed very risky decision making. Thus, the individual maturation of executive functions, associated with areas in the prefrontal cortex, seems to be an important factor in young peoples' behavior in risky decision-making situations.

Framing effects in group investment decision making: role of group polarization.

PubMed

Cheng, Pi-Yueh; Chiou, Wen-Bin

2008-02-01

Prospect theory proposes that framing effects result in a preference for risk-averse choices in gain situations and risk-seeking choices in loss situations. However, in group polarization situations, groups show a pronounced tendency to shift toward more extreme positions than those they initially held. Whether framing effects in group decision making are more prominent as a result of the group-polarization effect was examined. Purposive sampling of 120 college students (57 men, 63 women; M age = 20.1 yr., SD = 0.9) allowed assessment of relative preference between cautious and risky choices in individual and group decisions. Findings indicated that both group polarization and framing effects occur in investment decisions. More importantly, group decisions in a gain situation appear to be more cautious, i.e., risk averse, than individual decisions, whereas group decisions in the loss situation appear to be more risky than individual decisions. Thus, group decision making may expand framing effects when it comes to investment choices through group polarization.

Does ambiguity aversion influence the framing effect during decision making?

PubMed

Osmont, Anaïs; Cassotti, Mathieu; Agogué, Marine; Houdé, Olivier; Moutier, Sylvain

2015-04-01

Decision-makers present a systematic tendency to avoid ambiguous options for which the level of risk is unknown. This ambiguity aversion is one of the most striking decision-making biases. Given that human choices strongly depend on the options' presentation, the purpose of the present study was to examine whether ambiguity aversion influences the framing effect during decision making. We designed a new financial decision-making task involving the manipulation of both frame and uncertainty levels. Thirty-seven participants had to choose between a sure option and a gamble depicting either clear or ambiguous probabilities. The results revealed a clear preference for the sure option in the ambiguity condition regardless of frame. However, participants presented a framing effect in both the risk and ambiguity conditions. Indeed, the framing effect was bidirectional in the risk condition and unidirectional in the ambiguity condition given that it did not involve preference reversal but only a more extreme choice tendency.

Prospect theory and body mass: characterizing psychological parameters for weight-related risk attitudes and weight-gain aversion.

PubMed

Lim, Seung-Lark; Bruce, Amanda S

2015-01-01

We developed a novel decision-making paradigm that allows us to apply prospect theory in behavioral economics to body mass. 67 healthy young adults completed self-report measures and two decision-making tasks for weight-loss, as well as for monetary rewards. We estimated risk-related preference and loss aversion parameters for each individual, separately for weight-loss and monetary rewards choice data. Risk-seeking tendency for weight-loss was positively correlated with body mass index in individuals who desired to lose body weight, whereas the risk-seeking for momentary rewards was not. Risk-seeking for weight-loss was correlated to excessive body shape preoccupations, while aversion to weight-gain was correlated with self-reports of behavioral involvement for successful weight-loss. We demonstrated that prospect theory can be useful in explaining the decision-making process related to body mass. Applying prospect theory is expected to advance our understanding of decision-making mechanisms in obesity, which might prove helpful for improving healthy choices.

Prospect theory and body mass: characterizing psychological parameters for weight-related risk attitudes and weight-gain aversion

PubMed Central

Lim, Seung-Lark; Bruce, Amanda S.

2015-01-01

We developed a novel decision-making paradigm that allows us to apply prospect theory in behavioral economics to body mass. 67 healthy young adults completed self-report measures and two decision-making tasks for weight-loss, as well as for monetary rewards. We estimated risk-related preference and loss aversion parameters for each individual, separately for weight-loss and monetary rewards choice data. Risk-seeking tendency for weight-loss was positively correlated with body mass index in individuals who desired to lose body weight, whereas the risk-seeking for momentary rewards was not. Risk-seeking for weight-loss was correlated to excessive body shape preoccupations, while aversion to weight-gain was correlated with self-reports of behavioral involvement for successful weight-loss. We demonstrated that prospect theory can be useful in explaining the decision-making process related to body mass. Applying prospect theory is expected to advance our understanding of decision-making mechanisms in obesity, which might prove helpful for improving healthy choices. PMID:25852628

Altered Risk-Based Decision Making following Adolescent Alcohol Use Results from an Imbalance in Reinforcement Learning in Rats

PubMed Central

Hart, Andrew S.; Collins, Anne L.; Bernstein, Ilene L.; Phillips, Paul E. M.

2012-01-01

Alcohol use during adolescence has profound and enduring consequences on decision-making under risk. However, the fundamental psychological processes underlying these changes are unknown. Here, we show that alcohol use produces over-fast learning for better-than-expected, but not worse-than-expected, outcomes without altering subjective reward valuation. We constructed a simple reinforcement learning model to simulate altered decision making using behavioral parameters extracted from rats with a history of adolescent alcohol use. Remarkably, the learning imbalance alone was sufficient to simulate the divergence in choice behavior observed between these groups of animals. These findings identify a selective alteration in reinforcement learning following adolescent alcohol use that can account for a robust change in risk-based decision making persisting into later life. PMID:22615989

Preferences and decision needs of Boston-area travelers to countries with risk of Yellow fever virus transmission: implications for health care providers.

PubMed

Lown, Beth A; Chen, Lin H; Han, Pauline V; Jentes, Emily S; Wilson, Mary E; Benoit, Christine M; Avery, Karen A; Ooi, Winnie; Hamer, Davidson H; Barnett, Elizabeth D

2014-01-01

Yellow fever (YF), a potentially fatal mosquito-borne infection, is preventable with a live-attenuated vaccine, rarely associated with severe adverse events. We surveyed travelers to assess their reasons for pre-travel medical consultation, information they considered important regarding YF disease and vaccination, whether they recalled receiving this information, and whether they were involved in vaccine decision-making. Travelers aged 18 years and older were surveyed at three Boston-area travel clinics. Only those making YF vaccination decisions were included for analyses. Of 831 travelers surveyed, 589 (70%) indicated making a YF vaccination decision. Travel medicine providers recommended YF vaccination to 537 (91%) of 589 travelers; 92% of these 537 received vaccine. Among 101 travelers aged 60 years and older, 9% declined the vaccine; among those younger than 60 years, 4% declined the vaccine (p = 0.06). Of 589 travelers, most agreed they needed to understand destination-specific YF risks (82%) and vaccine risks (88%), and were involved in YF vaccine decisions (87%). Less than half recalled discussing their concerns about YF vaccine with the provider (42%) or what risks and benefits mattered most to them (32%). Most participants sought YF disease and vaccine risk information and wanted to be involved in decision-making; however, fewer than half recalled discussing their opinions or concerns about YF vaccine. Providers need effective risk communication skills and the ability to elicit and respond to travelers' concerns to help them make informed, shared decisions. © 2014 International Society of Travel Medicine.

Comparing decision making between cancer patients and the general population: thoughts, emotions, or social influence?

PubMed

Yang, Z Janet; McComas, Katherine A; Gay, Geri K; Leonard, John P; Dannenberg, Andrew J; Dillon, Hildy

2012-01-01

This study extends a risk information seeking and processing model to explore the relative effect of cognitive processing strategies, positive and negative emotions, and normative beliefs on individuals' decision making about potential health risks. Most previous research based on this theoretical framework has examined environmental risks. Applying this risk communication model to study health decision making presents an opportunity to explore theoretical boundaries of the model, while also bringing this research to bear on a pressing medical issue: low enrollment in clinical trials. Comparative analysis of data gathered from 2 telephone surveys of a representative national sample (n = 500) and a random sample of cancer patients (n = 411) indicated that emotions played a more substantive role in cancer patients' decisions to enroll in a potential trial, whereas cognitive processing strategies and normative beliefs had greater influences on the decisions of respondents from the national sample.

Applying predictive analytics to develop an intelligent risk detection application for healthcare contexts.

PubMed

Moghimi, Fatemeh Hoda; Cheung, Michael; Wickramasinghe, Nilmini

2013-01-01

Healthcare is an information rich industry where successful outcomes require the processing of multi-spectral data and sound decision making. The exponential growth of data and big data issues coupled with a rapid increase of service demands in healthcare contexts today, requires a robust framework enabled by IT (information technology) solutions as well as real-time service handling in order to ensure superior decision making and successful healthcare outcomes. Such a context is appropriate for the application of real time intelligent risk detection decision support systems using predictive analytic techniques such as data mining. To illustrate the power and potential of data science technologies in healthcare decision making scenarios, the use of an intelligent risk detection (IRD) model is proffered for the context of Congenital Heart Disease (CHD) in children, an area which requires complex high risk decisions that need to be made expeditiously and accurately in order to ensure successful healthcare outcomes.

Designing Visual Aids That Promote Risk Literacy: A Systematic Review of Health Research and Evidence-Based Design Heuristics.

PubMed

Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Cokely, Edward T

2017-06-01

Background Effective risk communication is essential for informed decision making. Unfortunately, many people struggle to understand typical risk communications because they lack essential decision-making skills. Objective The aim of this study was to review the literature on the effect of numeracy on risk literacy, decision making, and health outcomes, and to evaluate the benefits of visual aids in risk communication. Method We present a conceptual framework describing the influence of numeracy on risk literacy, decision making, and health outcomes, followed by a systematic review of the benefits of visual aids in risk communication for people with different levels of numeracy and graph literacy. The systematic review covers scientific research published between January 1995 and April 2016, drawn from the following databases: Web of Science, PubMed, PsycINFO, ERIC, Medline, and Google Scholar. Inclusion criteria were investigation of the effect of numeracy and/or graph literacy, and investigation of the effect of visual aids or comparison of their effect with that of numerical information. Thirty-six publications met the criteria, providing data on 27,885 diverse participants from 60 countries. Results Transparent visual aids robustly improved risk understanding in diverse individuals by encouraging thorough deliberation, enhancing cognitive self-assessment, and reducing conceptual biases in memory. Improvements in risk understanding consistently produced beneficial changes in attitudes, behavioral intentions, trust, and healthy behaviors. Visual aids were found to be particularly beneficial for vulnerable and less skilled individuals. Conclusion Well-designed visual aids tend to be highly effective tools for improving informed decision making among diverse decision makers. We identify five categories of practical, evidence-based guidelines for heuristic evaluation and design of effective visual aids.

"It was an Emotional Baby": Previvors' Family Planning Decision-Making Styles about Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk.

PubMed

Dean, Marleah; Rauscher, Emily A

2017-12-01

Women who test positive for a BRCA genetic mutation are at an increased risk for developing hereditary breast and ovarian cancer and have a 50% chance of passing on their genetic mutation to their children. The purpose of this study was to investigate how women who test positive for a BRCA mutation but have not been diagnosed with cancer make decisions regarding family planning. Analysis of interviews with 20 women revealed they engage in logical and emotional decision-making styles. Although women want to be logical to reduce their hereditary cancer risk, emotions often complicate their decision-making. Women experience fear and worry about a future cancer diagnosis, yet also desire to create a family, particularly having children through natural conception. That is, women negotiate having preventative surgeries in a logical doctor-recommended timeframe but also organize those decisions around emotional desires of motherhood. Overall, this study demonstrates the complex decisions women who test positive for a BRCA mutation must make in regards to genetic testing timing, family planning, and overall quality of life.

Effects of outcome on the covariance between risk level and brain activity in adolescents with internet gaming disorder.

PubMed

Qi, Xin; Yang, Yongxin; Dai, Shouping; Gao, Peihong; Du, Xin; Zhang, Yang; Du, Guijin; Li, Xiaodong; Zhang, Quan

2016-01-01

Individuals with internet gaming disorder (IGD) often have impaired risky decision-making abilities, and IGD-related functional changes have been observed during neuroimaging studies of decision-making tasks. However, it is still unclear how feedback (outcomes of decision-making) affects the subsequent risky decision-making in individuals with IGD. In this study, twenty-four adolescents with IGD and 24 healthy controls (HCs) were recruited and underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging while performing the balloon analog risk task (BART) to evaluate the effects of prior outcomes on brain activity during subsequent risky decision-making in adolescents with IGD. The covariance between risk level and activation of the bilateral ventral medial prefrontal cortex, left inferior frontal cortex, right ventral striatum (VS), left hippocampus/parahippocampus, right inferior occipital gyrus/fusiform gyrus and right inferior temporal gyrus demonstrated interaction effects of group by outcome ( P  < 0.05, AlphaSim correction). The regions with interactive effects were defined as ROI, and ROI-based intergroup comparisons showed that the covariance between risk level and brain activation was significantly greater in adolescents with IGD compared with HCs after a negative outcome occurred ( P  < 0.05). Our results indicated that negative outcomes affected the covariance between risk level and activation of the brain regions related to value estimation (prefrontal cortex), anticipation of rewards (VS), and emotional-related learning (hippocampus/parahippocampus), which may be one of the underlying neural mechanisms of disadvantageous risky decision-making in adolescents with IGD.

Decision-Making for Systemic Water Risks: Insights From a Participatory Risk Assessment Process in Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wyrwoll, Paul R.; Grafton, R. Quentin; Daniell, Katherine A.; Chu, Hoang Long; Ringler, Claudia; Lien, Le Thi Ha; Khoi, Dang Kim; Do, Thang Nam; Tuan, Nguyen Do Anh

2018-03-01

Systemic threats to food-energy-environment-water systems require national policy responses. Yet complete control of these complex systems is impossible and attempts to mitigate systemic risks can generate unexpected feedback effects. Perverse outcomes from national policy can emerge from the diverse responses of decision-makers across different levels and scales of resource governance. Participatory risk assessment processes can help planners to understand subnational dynamics and ensure that policies do not undermine the resilience of social-ecological systems and infrastructure networks. Researchers can play an important role in participatory processes as both technical specialists and brokers of stakeholder knowledge on the feedbacks generated by systemic risks and policy decisions. Here, we evaluate the use of causal modeling and participatory risk assessment to develop national policy on systemic water risks. We present an application of the Risks and Options Assessment for Decision-Making (ROAD) process to a district of Vietnam where national agricultural water reforms are being piloted. The methods and results of this project provide general insights about how to support resilient decision-making, including the transfer of knowledge across administrative levels, identification of feedback effects, and the effective implementation of risk assessment processes.

Theory of mind and decision-making processes are impaired in Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Xi, Chunhua; Zhu, Youling; Mu, Yanfang; Chen, Bing; Dong, Bin; Cheng, Huaidong; Hu, Panpan; Zhu, Chunyan; Wang, Kai

2015-02-15

Prefrontal cortex plays a vital role in the theory of mind (ToM) and decision making, as shown in functional brain imaging and lesion studies. Considering the primary neuropathology of Parkinson's disease (PD) involving the frontal lobe system, patients with PD are expected to exhibit deficits in ToM and social decision making. The aim of this study was to investigate affective ToM and decision making in patients with PD and healthy controls (HC) in a task assessing affective ToM (Reading the Mind in the Eyes, RME) and two decision-making tasks (Iowa Gambling Task, IGT; Game of Dice Task, GDT). Consistent with previous findings, patients with PD were impaired in the affective ToM task, and when making decisions under ambiguity and in risk situations. The score of emotion recognition in the RME task was negatively correlated with the severity of the disease and positively correlated with the total number of advantageous cards chosen in the IGT. However, the final capital in the GDT was correlated with memory impairment. The present study implies that affective ToM and decision making under ambiguity may share similar neural mechanisms, while decision making under ambiguity and decision making under risk may involve processing within different neural networks. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Neuropsychological Approach to Understanding Risk-Taking for Potential Gains and Losses

PubMed Central

Levin, Irwin P.; Xue, Gui; Weller, Joshua A.; Reimann, Martin; Lauriola, Marco; Bechara, Antoine

2012-01-01

Affective neuroscience has helped guide research and theory development in judgment and decision-making by revealing the role of emotional processes in choice behavior, especially when risk is involved. Evidence is emerging that qualitatively and quantitatively different processes may be involved in risky decision-making for gains and losses. We start by reviewing behavioral work by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) and others, which shows that risk-taking differs for potential gains and potential losses. We then turn to the literature in decision neuroscience to support the gain versus loss distinction. Relying in part on data from a new task that separates risky decision-making for gains and losses, we test a neural model that assigns unique mechanisms for risky decision-making involving potential losses. Included are studies using patients with lesions to brain areas specified as important in the model and studies with healthy individuals whose brains are scanned to reveal activation in these and other areas during risky decision-making. In some cases, there is evidence that gains and losses are processed in different regions of the brain, while in other cases the same region appears to process risk in a different manner for gains and losses. At a more general level, we provide strong support for the notion that decisions involving risk-taking for gains and decisions involving risk-taking for losses represent different psychological processes. At a deeper level, we present mounting evidence that different neural structures play different roles in guiding risky choices in these different domains. Some structures are differentially activated by risky gains and risky losses while others respond uniquely in one domain or the other. Taken together, these studies support a clear functional dissociation between risk-taking for gains and risk-taking for losses, and further dissociation at the neural level. PMID:22347161

Modulating the Activity of the DLPFC and OFC Has Distinct Effects on Risk and Ambiguity Decision-Making: A tDCS Study

PubMed Central

Yang, Xiaolan; Gao, Mei; Shi, Jinchuan; Ye, Hang; Chen, Shu

2017-01-01

Human beings are constantly exposed to two types of uncertainty situations, risk and ambiguity. Neuroscientific studies suggest that the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and the orbital frontal cortex (OFC) play significant roles in human decision making under uncertainty. We applied the transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) device to modulate the activity of participants’ DLPFC and OFC separately, comparing the causal relationships between people’s behaviors and the activity of the corresponding brain cortex when confronted with situations of risk and ambiguity. Our experiment employed a pre–post design and a risk/ambiguity decision-making task, from which we could calculate the preferences via an estimation model. We found evidences that modulating the activity of the DLPFC using right anodal/left cathodal tDCS significantly enhanced the participants’ preferences for risk, whereas modulating the activity of the OFC with right anodal/left cathodal tDCS significantly decreased the participants’ preferences for ambiguity. The reverse effects were also observed in the reversed tDCS treatments on the two areas. Our results suggest that decision-making processes under risk and ambiguity are complicated and may be encoded in two distinct circuits in our brains as the DLPFC primarily impacts decisions under risk whereas the OFC affects ambiguity. PMID:28878714

Modulating the Activity of the DLPFC and OFC Has Distinct Effects on Risk and Ambiguity Decision-Making: A tDCS Study.

PubMed

Yang, Xiaolan; Gao, Mei; Shi, Jinchuan; Ye, Hang; Chen, Shu

2017-01-01

Human beings are constantly exposed to two types of uncertainty situations, risk and ambiguity. Neuroscientific studies suggest that the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and the orbital frontal cortex (OFC) play significant roles in human decision making under uncertainty. We applied the transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) device to modulate the activity of participants' DLPFC and OFC separately, comparing the causal relationships between people's behaviors and the activity of the corresponding brain cortex when confronted with situations of risk and ambiguity. Our experiment employed a pre-post design and a risk/ambiguity decision-making task, from which we could calculate the preferences via an estimation model. We found evidences that modulating the activity of the DLPFC using right anodal/left cathodal tDCS significantly enhanced the participants' preferences for risk, whereas modulating the activity of the OFC with right anodal/left cathodal tDCS significantly decreased the participants' preferences for ambiguity. The reverse effects were also observed in the reversed tDCS treatments on the two areas. Our results suggest that decision-making processes under risk and ambiguity are complicated and may be encoded in two distinct circuits in our brains as the DLPFC primarily impacts decisions under risk whereas the OFC affects ambiguity.

The use of logistic regression to enhance risk assessment and decision making by mental health administrators.

PubMed

Menditto, Anthony A; Linhorst, Donald M; Coleman, James C; Beck, Niels C

2006-04-01

Development of policies and procedures to contend with the risks presented by elopement, aggression, and suicidal behaviors are long-standing challenges for mental health administrators. Guidance in making such judgments can be obtained through the use of a multivariate statistical technique known as logistic regression. This procedure can be used to develop a predictive equation that is mathematically formulated to use the best combination of predictors, rather than considering just one factor at a time. This paper presents an overview of logistic regression and its utility in mental health administrative decision making. A case example of its application is presented using data on elopements from Missouri's long-term state psychiatric hospitals. Ultimately, the use of statistical prediction analyses tempered with differential qualitative weighting of classification errors can augment decision-making processes in a manner that provides guidance and flexibility while wrestling with the complex problem of risk assessment and decision making.

Risk perception & strategic decision making :general insights, a framework, and specific application to electricity generation using nuclear energy.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brewer, Jeffrey D.

The objective of this report is to promote increased understanding of decision making processes and hopefully to enable improved decision making regarding high-consequence, highly sophisticated technological systems. This report brings together insights regarding risk perception and decision making across domains ranging from nuclear power technology safety, cognitive psychology, economics, science education, public policy, and neural science (to name a few). It forms them into a unique, coherent, concise framework, and list of strategies to aid in decision making. It is suggested that all decision makers, whether ordinary citizens, academics, or political leaders, ought to cultivate their abilities to separate themore » wheat from the chaff in these types of decision making instances. The wheat includes proper data sources and helpful human decision making heuristics; these should be sought. The chaff includes ''unhelpful biases'' that hinder proper interpretation of available data and lead people unwittingly toward inappropriate decision making ''strategies''; obviously, these should be avoided. It is further proposed that successfully accomplishing the wheat vs. chaff separation is very difficult, yet tenable. This report hopes to expose and facilitate navigation away from decision-making traps which often ensnare the unwary. Furthermore, it is emphasized that one's personal decision making biases can be examined, and tools can be provided allowing better means to generate, evaluate, and select among decision options. Many examples in this report are tailored to the energy domain (esp. nuclear power for electricity generation). The decision making framework and approach presented here are applicable to any high-consequence, highly sophisticated technological system.« less

Adolescent Decision Making: Implications for Prevention Programs. Summary of a Workshop.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fischhoff, Baruch, Ed.; Crowell, Nancy A., Ed.; Kipke, Michele, Ed.

Risk taking is a natural part of teenagers' lives. They need to take some risks in order to grow. However, they can also get into trouble with their risk taking when it involves behaviors such as sex, drinking, smoking, violence, and drug use. Interest in the role that decision making plays in adolescents' involvement in high-risk behaviors led…

Graduate Education in Risk Analysis for Food, Agriculture, and Veterinary Medicine: Challenges and Opportunities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Correia, Ana-Paula; Wolt, Jeffrey D.

2010-01-01

The notion of risk in relation to food and food production has heightened the need to educate students to effectively deal with risk in relation to decision making from a science-based perspective. Curricula and related materials were developed and adopted to support graduate learning opportunities in risk analysis and decision making as applied…

'Sometimes people let love conquer them': how love, intimacy, and trust in relationships between men who have sex with men influence perceptions of sexual risk and sexual decision-making.

PubMed

Goldenberg, Tamar; Finneran, Catherine; Andes, Karen L; Stephenson, Rob

2015-01-01

Men who have sex with men account for a disproportionate burden of HIV incidence in the USA. Although much research has examined the drivers of sexual risk-taking, the emotional contexts in which men make sexual decisions has received little attention. In this three-phase, 10-week longitudinal qualitative study involving 25 gay and bisexual men, we used timeline-based interviews and quantitative web-based diaries about sexual and/or dating partners to examine how emotions influence HIV risk perceptions and sexual decision-making. Participants described love, intimacy, and trust as reducing HIV risk perceptions and facilitating engagement in condomless anal intercourse. Lust was not as linked with risk perceptions, but facilitated non condom-use through an increased willingness to engage in condomless anal intercourse, despite perceptions of risk. Results indicate that gay and bisexual men do not make sexual decisions in an emotional vacuum. Emotions influence perceptions of risk so that they do not necessarily align with biological risk factors. Emotional influences, especially the type and context of emotions, are important to consider to improve HIV prevention efforts among gay and bisexual men.

Impaired decision making under ambiguity but not under risk in individuals with pathological buying-behavioral and psychophysiological evidence.

PubMed

Trotzke, Patrick; Starcke, Katrin; Pedersen, Anya; Müller, Astrid; Brand, Matthias

2015-09-30

Pathological buying (PB) is described as dysfunctional buying behavior, associated with harmful consequences. It is discussed whether decision-making deficits are related to PB, because affected individuals often choose the short-term rewarding option of buying despite persistent negative long-term consequences. We investigated 30 patients suffering from PB and 30 matched control participants with two different decision-making tasks: the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) measures decisions under ambiguity and involves emotional feedback processing, whereas the Game of Dice Task (GDT) measures decisions under risk and can be solved strategically. Potential emotional and cognitive correlates of decision making were investigated by assessing skin conductance response (SCR) and executive functioning. In comparison to the control participants, the patients showed more disadvantageous decisions under ambiguity in the IGT. These data were supported by the SCR results: patients failed to generate SCRs that usually occur before disadvantageous decisions. The physiological and behavioral performance on decisions under risk and executive functioning did not differ between groups. Thus, deficits in emotional feedback processing might be one potential factor in etiology and pathogenesis of PB and should be considered in theory and treatment. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk.

PubMed

Ricci, Paolo F; Cox, Louis A; MacDonald, Thomas R

2004-12-01

Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives--defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely--requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the relevance of new information, relative to the initial (and smaller) set of data on which the decision was based. We exemplify this seemingly simple situation using risk management of BSE. As an integral aspect of causal analysis under risk, the methods developed in this paper permit the addition of non-linear, hormetic dose-response models to the current set of regulatory defaults such as the linear, non-threshold models. This increase in the number of defaults is an important improvement because most of the variants of the precautionary principle require cost-benefit balancing. Specifically, increasing the set of causal defaults accounts for beneficial effects at very low doses. We also show and conclude that quantitative risk assessment dominates qualitative risk assessment, supporting the extension of the set of default causal models.

Polya's bees: A model of decentralized decision-making.

PubMed

Golman, Russell; Hagmann, David; Miller, John H

2015-09-01

How do social systems make decisions with no single individual in control? We observe that a variety of natural systems, including colonies of ants and bees and perhaps even neurons in the human brain, make decentralized decisions using common processes involving information search with positive feedback and consensus choice through quorum sensing. We model this process with an urn scheme that runs until hitting a threshold, and we characterize an inherent tradeoff between the speed and the accuracy of a decision. The proposed common mechanism provides a robust and effective means by which a decentralized system can navigate the speed-accuracy tradeoff and make reasonably good, quick decisions in a variety of environments. Additionally, consensus choice exhibits systemic risk aversion even while individuals are idiosyncratically risk-neutral. This too is adaptive. The model illustrates how natural systems make decentralized decisions, illuminating a mechanism that engineers of social and artificial systems could imitate.

Contralateral prophylactic mastectomy: A qualitative approach to exploring the decision making process.

PubMed

Greener, Judith R; Bass, Sarah Bauerle; Lepore, Stephen J

2018-01-01

The proportion of women with unilateral breast cancer and no familial or genetic risk factors who elect contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) has grown dramatically, even in the absence of clear data demonstrating improved outcomes. To further extend the literature that addresses treatment decision-making, qualitative interviews were conducted with eleven women who considered CPM. A social ecological model of breast cancer treatment decision-making provided the conceptual framework, and grounded theory was used to identify the cognitive, psychosocial, and emotional influences motivating treatment choice. This research identified five themes that give context to women's decision-making experience: (1) variability in physician communication, (2) immediacy of the decision, (3) meaning of being proactive about treatment, (4) meaning of risk, and (5) women's relationship with their breasts. The results suggest that greater emphasis should be placed on a more nuanced understanding of patients' emotional reaction to breast cancer and managing the decision-making environment.

Determinants of Propranolol's Selective Effect on Loss Aversion.

PubMed

Sokol-Hessner, Peter; Lackovic, Sandra F; Tobe, Russell H; Camerer, Colin F; Leventhal, Bennett L; Phelps, Elizabeth A

2015-07-01

Research on emotion and decision making has suggested that arousal mediates risky decisions, but several distinct and often confounded processes drive such choices. We used econometric modeling to separate and quantify the unique contributions of loss aversion, risk attitudes, and choice consistency to risky decision making. We administered the beta-blocker propranolol in a double-blind, placebo-controlled within-subjects study, targeting the neurohormonal basis of physiological arousal. Matching our intervention's pharmacological specificity with a quantitative model delineating decision-making components allowed us to identify the causal relationships between arousal and decision making that do and do not exist. Propranolol selectively reduced loss aversion in a baseline- and dose-dependent manner (i.e., as a function of initial loss aversion and body mass index), and did not affect risk attitudes or choice consistency. These findings provide evidence for a specific, modulatory, and causal relationship between precise components of emotion and risky decision making. © The Author(s) 2015.

Polya’s bees: A model of decentralized decision-making

PubMed Central

Golman, Russell; Hagmann, David; Miller, John H.

2015-01-01

How do social systems make decisions with no single individual in control? We observe that a variety of natural systems, including colonies of ants and bees and perhaps even neurons in the human brain, make decentralized decisions using common processes involving information search with positive feedback and consensus choice through quorum sensing. We model this process with an urn scheme that runs until hitting a threshold, and we characterize an inherent tradeoff between the speed and the accuracy of a decision. The proposed common mechanism provides a robust and effective means by which a decentralized system can navigate the speed-accuracy tradeoff and make reasonably good, quick decisions in a variety of environments. Additionally, consensus choice exhibits systemic risk aversion even while individuals are idiosyncratically risk-neutral. This too is adaptive. The model illustrates how natural systems make decentralized decisions, illuminating a mechanism that engineers of social and artificial systems could imitate. PMID:26601255

Chimpanzees and Bonobos Exhibit Emotional Responses to Decision Outcomes

PubMed Central

Rosati, Alexandra G.; Hare, Brian

2013-01-01

The interface between cognition, emotion, and motivation is thought to be of central importance in understanding complex cognitive functions such as decision-making and executive control in humans. Although nonhuman apes have complex repertoires of emotional expression, little is known about the role of affective processes in ape decision-making. To illuminate the evolutionary origins of human-like patterns of choice, we investigated decision-making in humans' closest phylogenetic relatives, chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and bonobos (Pan paniscus). In two studies, we examined these species' temporal and risk preferences, and assessed whether apes show emotional and motivational responses in decision-making contexts. We find that (1) chimpanzees are more patient and more risk-prone than are bonobos, (2) both species exhibit affective and motivational responses following the outcomes of their decisions, and (3) some emotional and motivational responses map onto species-level and individual-differences in decision-making. These results indicate that apes do exhibit emotional responses to decision-making, like humans. We explore the hypothesis that affective and motivational biases may underlie the psychological mechanisms supporting value-based preferences in these species. PMID:23734175

Cognitive, social, and neural determinants of diminished decision-making and financial exploitation risk in aging and dementia: A review and new model.

PubMed

Spreng, R Nathan; Karlawish, Jason; Marson, Daniel C

2016-01-01

In this article we will briefly review how changes in brain and in cognitive and social functioning, across the spectrum from normal to pathological aging, can lead to decision-making impairments that increase abuse risk in many life domains (e.g., health care, social engagement, financial management). The review will specifically focus on emerging research identifying neural, cognitive, and social markers of declining financial decision-making capacity in older adults. We will highlight how these findings are opening avenues for early detection and new interventions to reduce exploitation risk.

Quantifying Risk of Financial Incapacity and Financial Exploitation in Community-dwelling Older Adults: Utility of a Scoring System for the Lichtenberg Financial Decision-making Rating Scale.

PubMed

Lichtenberg, Peter A; Gross, Evan; Ficker, Lisa J

2018-06-08

This work examines the clinical utility of the scoring system for the Lichtenberg Financial Decision-making Rating Scale (LFDRS) and its usefulness for decision making capacity and financial exploitation. Objective 1 was to examine the clinical utility of a person centered, empirically supported, financial decision making scale. Objective 2 was to determine whether the risk-scoring system created for this rating scale is sufficiently accurate for the use of cutoff scores in cases of decisional capacity and cases of suspected financial exploitation. Objective 3 was to examine whether cognitive decline and decisional impairment predicted suspected financial exploitation. Two hundred independently living, non-demented community-dwelling older adults comprised the sample. Participants completed the rating scale and other cognitive measures. Receiver operating characteristic curves were in the good to excellent range for decisional capacity scoring, and in the fair to good range for financial exploitation. Analyses supported the conceptual link between decision making deficits and risk for exploitation, and supported the use of the risk-scoring system in a community-based population. This study adds to the empirical evidence supporting the use of the rating scale as a clinical tool assessing risk for financial decisional impairment and/or financial exploitation.

Decision Making in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART): Anterior Cingulate Cortex Signals Loss-Aversion but not the Infrequency of Risky Choices

PubMed Central

Fukunaga, Rena; Brown, Joshua W.; Bogg, Tim

2012-01-01

The inferior frontal gyrus/anterior insula (IFG/AI) and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) are key regions involved in risk appraisal during decision making, but accounts of how these regions contribute to decision-making under risk remain contested. To help clarify the roles of these and other related regions, we used a modified version of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (Lejuez et al., 2002) to distinguish between decision-making and feedback-related processes when participants decided to pursue a gain as the probability of loss increased parametrically. Specifically, we set out to test whether ACC and IFG/AI regions correspond to loss-aversion at the time of decision making in a way that is not confounded with either reward-seeking or infrequency effects. When participants chose to discontinue inflating the balloon (win option), we observed greater ACC and mainly bilateral IFG/AI activity at the time of decision as the probability of explosion increased, consistent with increased loss-aversion but inconsistent with an infrequency effect. In contrast, we found robust vmPFC activity when participants chose to continue inflating the balloon (risky option), consistent with reward-seeking. However, in the cingulate and mainly bilateral IFG regions, BOLD activation decreased when participants chose to inflate the balloon as the probability of explosion increased, findings consistent with a reduced loss-aversion signal. Our results highlight the existence of distinct reward-seeking and loss-averse signals during decision-making, as well as the importance of distinguishing decision and feedback signals. PMID:22707378

Environmental risk assessment of chemicals and nanomaterials--The best foundation for regulatory decision-making?

PubMed

Syberg, Kristian; Hansen, Steffen Foss

2016-01-15

Environmental risk assessment (ERA) is often considered as the most transparent, objective and reliable decision-making tool for informing the risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials. ERAs are based on the assumption that it is possible to provide accurate estimates of hazard and exposure and, subsequently, to quantify risk. In this paper we argue that since the quantification of risk is dominated by uncertainties, ERAs do not provide a transparent or an objective foundation for decision-making and they should therefore not be considered as a "holy grail" for informing risk management. We build this thesis on the analysis of two case studies (of nonylphenol and nanomaterials) as well as a historical analysis in which we address the scientific foundation for ERAs. The analyses show that ERAs do not properly address all aspects of actual risk, such as the mixture effect and the environmentally realistic risk from nanomaterials. Uncertainties have been recognised for decades, and assessment factors are used to compensate for the lack of realism in ERAs. The assessment factors' values were pragmatically determined, thus lowering the scientific accuracy of the ERAs. Furthermore, the default choice of standard assay for assessing a hazard might not always be the most biologically relevant, so we therefore argue that an ERA should be viewed as a pragmatic decision-making tool among several, and it should not have a special status for informing risk management. In relation to other relevant decision-making tools we discuss the use of chemical alternative assessments (CAAs) and the precautionary principle. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decision making in young people at familial risk of depression.

PubMed

Mannie, Z N; Williams, C; Browning, M; Cowen, P J

2015-01-01

Major depression is associated with abnormalities in reward processing at neural and behavioural levels. Neural abnormalities in reward have been described in young people at familial risk of depression but behavioural changes in reward-based decision making have been less studied in this group. We studied 63 young people (mean age 18.9 years) with a parent with a diagnosis of major depression but who had never been depressed themselves, that is with a positive family history of depression (the FH+ group). Participants performed the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT), which provides several measures of decision making including deliberation time, quality of decision making, risk taking, risk adjustment and delay aversion. A control group of 49 age- and gender-matched young people with no history of mood disorder in a first-degree relative undertook the same task. Both FH+ participants and controls had low and equivalent scores on anxiety and depression self-rating scales. Compared to controls, the FH+ participants showed overall lower risk taking, although like controls they made more risky choices as the odds of a favourable outcome increased. No other measures of decision making differed between the two groups. Young people at increased familial risk of depression have altered risk taking that is not accounted for by current affective symptomatology. Lowered risk taking might represent an impairment in reward seeking, which is one of several changes in reward-based behaviours seen in acutely depressed patients; however, our findings suggest that decreased reward seeking could be part of a risk endophenotype for depression.

Combination of uncertainty theories and decision-aiding methods for natural risk management in a context of imperfect information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tacnet, Jean-Marc; Dupouy, Guillaume; Carladous, Simon; Dezert, Jean; Batton-Hubert, Mireille

2017-04-01

In mountain areas, natural phenomena such as snow avalanches, debris-flows and rock-falls, put people and objects at risk with sometimes dramatic consequences. Risk is classically considered as a combination of hazard, the combination of the intensity and frequency of the phenomenon, and vulnerability which corresponds to the consequences of the phenomenon on exposed people and material assets. Risk management consists in identifying the risk level as well as choosing the best strategies for risk prevention, i.e. mitigation. In the context of natural phenomena in mountainous areas, technical and scientific knowledge is often lacking. Risk management decisions are therefore based on imperfect information. This information comes from more or less reliable sources ranging from historical data, expert assessments, numerical simulations etc. Finally, risk management decisions are the result of complex knowledge management and reasoning processes. Tracing the information and propagating information quality from data acquisition to decisions are therefore important steps in the decision-making process. One major goal today is therefore to assist decision-making while considering the availability, quality and reliability of information content and sources. A global integrated framework is proposed to improve the risk management process in a context of information imperfection provided by more or less reliable sources: uncertainty as well as imprecision, inconsistency and incompleteness are considered. Several methods are used and associated in an original way: sequential decision context description, development of specific multi-criteria decision-making methods, imperfection propagation in numerical modeling and information fusion. This framework not only assists in decision-making but also traces the process and evaluates the impact of information quality on decision-making. We focus and present two main developments. The first one relates to uncertainty and imprecision propagation in numerical modeling using both classical Monte-Carlo probabilistic approach and also so-called Hybrid approach using possibility theory. Second approach deals with new multi-criteria decision-making methods which consider information imperfection, source reliability, importance and conflict, using fuzzy sets as well as possibility and belief function theories. Implemented methods consider information imperfection propagation and information fusion in total aggregation methods such as AHP (Saaty, 1980) or partial aggregation methods such as the Electre outranking method (see Soft Electre Tri ) or decisions in certain but also risky or uncertain contexts (see new COWA-ER and FOWA-ER- Cautious and Fuzzy Ordered Weighted Averaging-Evidential Reasoning). For example, the ER-MCDA methodology considers expert assessment as a multi-criteria decision process based on imperfect information provided by more or less heterogeneous, reliable and conflicting sources: it mixes AHP, fuzzy sets theory, possibility theory and belief function theory using DSmT (Dezert-Smarandache Theory) framework which provides powerful fusion rules.

Emotions, decisions, and the limits of rationality: symposium introduction.

PubMed

Ubel, Peter A

2005-01-01

In this symposium, three speakers describe research that examines ways in which people's decision-making is affected by emotions. In his paper, Dr. Loewenstein describes research on the properties and effects of "projection bias," the tendency to allow one's immediate, often transient, preferences to influence decisions in the future when one's preferences will be predictable different. Over-shopping on an empty stomach or failing, when not addicted, to appreciate one's future helplessness in the face of drug craving, are examples. Dr. Schwarz focuses on how experiences that accompany the thought process can influence the ease of access to information or the fluency with which new information can be processed. These meta-cognitive experiences can affect decisions. For example, recalling many risk-increasing behaviors is more difficult than recalling only a few. Drawing on this difficulty, people who recall many risk-increasing behaviors infer that they are at lower risk than people who recall merely a few risk-increasing behaviors, in contrast to what the content of recall would suggest. Finally, Dr. Bodenhausen clarifies what is meant by stereotyping, considers how stereotypes might influence decision-making processes, and discuss why this influence often might not be very desirable. He then describes research about factors that amplify the biasing impact of stereotypes in decision making processes. The authors provide examples, discuss implications of their findings for medical decision-making, and describe strategies that we might employ to minimize or eliminate the biases that might be introduced into decision-making processes.

Aviation System Safety and Pilot Risk Perception: Implications for Enhancing Decision-Making Skills

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, Mavis F.

2001-01-01

This research explores risk perception in a defined population of flight instructors and the implications of these views for flight training. Flight instructors and students engaged in collegiate aviation flight training were interviewed for this qualitative study. Thirty-three percent of the instructors interviewed reported that flying is not a risky activity. This is important because research identifies risk perception as one factor influencing instructional choices. These choices can then impact the subsequent decision-making processes of flight students. Facilitating pilot decision-making through the use of an appropriate type of learning that incorporates the modeling of consensually validated cognitive procedures and risk management processes is discussed.

Multiple attribute decision making model and application to food safety risk evaluation.

PubMed

Ma, Lihua; Chen, Hong; Yan, Huizhe; Yang, Lifeng; Wu, Lifeng

2017-01-01

Decision making for supermarket food purchase decisions are characterized by network relationships. This paper analyzed factors that influence supermarket food selection and proposes a supplier evaluation index system based on the whole process of food production. The author established the intuitive interval value fuzzy set evaluation model based on characteristics of the network relationship among decision makers, and validated for a multiple attribute decision making case study. Thus, the proposed model provides a reliable, accurate method for multiple attribute decision making.

Influence of dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and ventral striatum on risk avoidance in addiction: a mediation analysis.

PubMed

Yamamoto, Dorothy J; Woo, Choong-Wan; Wager, Tor D; Regner, Michael F; Tanabe, Jody

2015-04-01

Alterations in frontal and striatal function are hypothesized to underlie risky decision making in drug users, but how these regions interact to affect behavior is incompletely understood. We used mediation analysis to investigate how prefrontal cortex and ventral striatum together influence risk avoidance in abstinent drug users. Thirty-seven abstinent substance-dependent individuals (SDI) and 43 controls underwent fMRI while performing a decision-making task involving risk and reward. Analyses of a priori regions-of-interest tested whether activity in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and ventral striatum (VST) explained group differences in risk avoidance. Whole-brain analysis was conducted to identify brain regions influencing the negative VST-risk avoidance relationship. Right DLPFC (RDLPFC) positively mediated the group-risk avoidance relationship (p < 0.05); RDLPFC activity was higher in SDI and predicted higher risk avoidance across groups, controlling for SDI vs. Conversely, VST activity negatively influenced risk avoidance (p < 0.05); it was higher in SDI, and predicted lower risk avoidance. Whole-brain analysis revealed that, across group, RDLPFC and left temporal-parietal junction positively (p ≤ 0.001) while right thalamus and left middle frontal gyrus negatively (p < 0.005) mediated the VST activity-risk avoidance relationship. RDLPFC activity mediated less risky decision making while VST mediated more risky decision making across drug users and controls. These results suggest a dual pathway underlying decision making, which, if imbalanced, may adversely influence choices involving risk. Modeling contributions of multiple brain systems to behavior through mediation analysis could lead to a better understanding of mechanisms of behavior and suggest neuromodulatory treatments for addiction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influence of dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and ventral striatum on risk avoidance in addiction: a mediation analysis*

PubMed Central

Yamamoto, Dorothy J.; Woo, Choong-Wan; Wager, Tor D.; Regner, Michael F.; Tanabe, Jody

2015-01-01

Background Alterations in frontal and striatal function are hypothesized to underlie risky decision-making in drug users, but how these regions interact to affect behavior is incompletely understood. We used mediation analysis to investigate how prefrontal cortex and ventral striatum together influence risk avoidance in abstinent drug users. Method Thirty-seven abstinent substance-dependent individuals (SDI) and 43 controls underwent fMRI while performing a decision-making task involving risk and reward. Analyses of a priori regions-of-interest tested whether activity in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and ventral striatum (VST) explained group differences in risk avoidance. Whole-brain analysis was conducted to identify brain regions influencing the negative VST-risk avoidance relationship. Results Right DLPFC (RDLPFC) positively mediated the group-risk avoidance relationship (p < 0.05); RDLPFC activity was higher in SDI and predicted higher risk avoidance across groups, controlling for SDI vs. controls. Conversely, VST activity negatively influenced risk avoidance (p < 0.05); it was higher in SDI, and predicted lower risk avoidance. Whole-brain analysis revealed that, across group, RDLPFC and left temporal-parietal junction positively (p ≤ 0.001) while right thalamus and left middle frontal gyrus negatively (p < 0.005) mediated the VST activity-risk avoidance relationship. Conclusion RDLPFC activity mediated less risky decision-making while VST mediated more risky decision-making across drug users and controls. These results suggest a dual pathway underlying decision-making, which, if imbalanced, may adversely influence choices involving risk. Modeling contributions of multiple brain systems to behavior through mediation analysis could lead to a better understanding of mechanisms of behavior and suggest neuromodulatory treatments for addiction. PMID:25736619

Research on efficiency evaluation model of integrated energy system based on hybrid multi-attribute decision-making.

PubMed

Li, Yan

2017-05-25

The efficiency evaluation model of integrated energy system, involving many influencing factors, and the attribute values are heterogeneous and non-deterministic, usually cannot give specific numerical or accurate probability distribution characteristics, making the final evaluation result deviation. According to the characteristics of the integrated energy system, a hybrid multi-attribute decision-making model is constructed. The evaluation model considers the decision maker's risk preference. In the evaluation of the efficiency of the integrated energy system, the evaluation value of some evaluation indexes is linguistic value, or the evaluation value of the evaluation experts is not consistent. These reasons lead to ambiguity in the decision information, usually in the form of uncertain linguistic values and numerical interval values. In this paper, the risk preference of decision maker is considered when constructing the evaluation model. Interval-valued multiple-attribute decision-making method and fuzzy linguistic multiple-attribute decision-making model are proposed. Finally, the mathematical model of efficiency evaluation of integrated energy system is constructed.

Feasibility of functional neuroimaging to understand adolescent women's sexual decision making.

PubMed

Hensel, Devon J; Hummer, Tom A; Acrurio, Lindsay R; James, Thomas W; Fortenberry, J Dennis

2015-04-01

For young women, new sexual experiences normatively increase after puberty and coincide with extensive changes to brain regions governing self-regulation of risk behavior. These neurodevelopmental changes could leave some young women vulnerable for negative sexual outcomes, including sexually transmitted infection and unintended pregnancy. We evaluated the feasibility of using functional neuroimaging to understand the sexual decision making of adolescent women. Adolescent women (N = 14; 14-15 years) completed enrollment interviews, a neuroimaging task gauging neural activation to appetitive stimuli, and 30 days of prospective diaries following the scan characterizing daily affect and sexual behaviors. Descriptive and inferential statistics assessed the association between imaging and behavioral data. Young women were highly compliant with neuroimaging and diary protocol. Neural activity in a cognitive-affective network, including prefrontal and anterior cingulate regions, was significantly greater during low-risk decisions. Compared with other decisions, high-risk sexual decisions elicited greater activity in the anterior cingulate, and low-risk sexual decision elicited greater activity in regions of the visual cortex. Young women's sexual decision ratings were linked to their sexual history characteristics and daily self-reports of sexual emotions and behaviors. It is feasible to recruit and retain a cohort of female participants to perform a functional magnetic resonance imaging task focused on making decisions about sex, on the basis of varying levels of hypothetical sexual risk, and to complete longitudinal prospective diaries following this task. Preliminary evidence suggests that risk level differentially impacts brain activity related to sexual decision making in these women, which may be related to past and future sexual behaviors. Copyright © 2015 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Selective decision-making deficits in at-risk gamblers

PubMed Central

Grant, Jon Edgar; Chamberlain, Samuel Robin; Schreiber, Liana Renne Nelson; Odlaug, Brian Lawrence; Kim, Suck Won

2011-01-01

Despite reasonable knowledge of pathological gambling (PG), little is known of its cognitive antecedents. We evaluated decision-making and impulsivity characteristics in people at risk of developing PG using neuropsychological tests. Non-treatment seeking volunteers (18-29 years) who gamble ≥5 times/year were recruited from the general community, and split into two groups: those “at risk” of developing PG (n=74) and those social, non-problem gamblers (n=112). Participants undertook the Cambridge Gamble and Stop-signal tasks and were assessed with the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview and the Yale Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale Modified for Pathological Gambling. On the Cambridge Gamble task, the at- risk subjects gambled more points overall, were more likely to go bankrupt, and made more irrational decisions under situations of relative risk ambiguity. On the Stop-signal task, at- risk gamblers did not differ from the social, non-problem gamblers in terms of motor impulse control (stop-signal reaction times). Findings suggest that selective cognitive dysfunction may already be present in terms of decision-making in at-risk gamblers, even before psychopathology arises. These findings implicate selective decision-making deficits and dysfunction of orbitofronto-limbic circuitry in the chain of pathogenesis between social, non-problematic and pathological gambling. PMID:21715016

Depression and Anxiety During Pregnancy: Evaluating the Literature in Support of Clinical Risk-Benefit Decision-Making.

PubMed

Dalke, Katharine Baratz; Wenzel, Amy; Kim, Deborah R

2016-06-01

Depression and anxiety during pregnancy are common, and patients and providers are faced with complex decisions regarding various treatment modalities. A structured discussion of the risks and benefits of options with the patient and her support team is recommended to facilitate the decision-making process. This clinically focused review, with emphasis on the last 3 years of published study data, evaluates the major risk categories of medication treatments, namely pregnancy loss, physical malformations, growth impairment, behavioral teratogenicity, and neonatal toxicity. Nonpharmacological treatment options, including neuromodulation and psychotherapy, are also briefly reviewed. Specific recommendations, drawn from the literature and the authors' clinical experience, are also offered to help guide the clinician in decision-making.

Effects of risk attitudes on extended attack fire management decisionmaking

Treesearch

Donald G. MacGregor; Armando González-Cabán

2009-01-01

Fire management inherently involves the assessment and management of risk, and decision making under uncertainty. Although organizational standards and guides are an important determinant of how decision problems are structured and framed, decision makers may view risk-based decisions from a perspective that is unique to their background and experience. Previous...

The neural basis of social risky decision making in females with major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Shao, Robin; Zhang, Hui-jun; Lee, Tatia M C

2015-01-01

Recent evidence indicates that Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) may be associated with reduced tendency of committing noncompliant actions during social decision-making even when the risk of being punished is low. The neural underpinnings of this behavioral pattern are unknown, although it likely relates to compromised functioning of the lateral prefrontal-striatal/limbic networks implicated in executive control, emotion regulation and risk/value-based instrumental behaviors. We employed a modified trust game (TG) that provided explicit information on the risk levels of cheating behaviors being detected and punished. Behavioral and neuro-image data were acquired and analyzed from 14 first-episode female MDD patients and 15 age- and gender-matched controls performing the role of trustee in the TG. Relative to controls, MDD patients exhibited less behavioral switching to making cheating choices under low risk, and reduced activity in the dorsal putamen, anterior insula and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) during making low-risk cheating versus benevolent choices, with limited evidence indicating abnormal bilateral inferior frontal gyrus activities of patients when making high-risk cheating versus benevolent choices. Patients' left dorsal putamen/anterior insular signals correlated positively with their frequency of low-risk cheating. MDD patients' symptom severity correlated positively with their signals in the lateral prefrontal networks during decision-making. A psycho-physiological interaction analysis provided tentative evidence for the recruitment of IFG-striatal/limbic circuitry among the control participants, but greater frontopolar-striatal/limbic connectivity among the MDD patients, during low-risk decision-making. We propose that making risky social decisions based on the balancing of self-gain and other's welfare relies on the functioning of the integrated lateral prefrontal-striatal/limbic networks, which are less efficient and dysregulated among MDD patients compared with controls, impacting negatively on the patients' social capacity and highlighting a key therapeutic target for MDD. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On policies to regulate long-term risks from hazardous waste disposal sites under both intergenerational equity and intragenerational equity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shu, Zhongbin

In recent years, it has been recognized that there is a need for a general philosophic policy to guide the regulation of societal activities that involve long-term and very long-term risks. Theses societal activities not only include the disposal of high-level radioactive wastes and global warming, but also include the disposal of non-radioactive carcinogens that never decay, such as arsenic, nickel, etc. In the past, attention has been focused on nuclear wastes. However, there has been international recognition that large quantities of non-radioactive wastes are being disposed of with little consideration of their long-term risks. The objectives of this dissertation are to present the significant long-term risks posed by non-radioactive carcinogens through case studies; develop the conceptual decision framework for setting the long-term risk policy; and illustrate that certain factors, such as discount rate, can significantly influence the results of long-term risk analysis. Therefore, the proposed decision-making framework can be used to systematically study the important policy questions on long-term risk regulations, and then subsequently help the decision-maker to make informed decisions. Regulatory disparities between high-level radioactive wastes and non-radioactive wastes are summarized. Long-term risk is rarely a consideration in the regulation of disposal of non-radioactive hazardous chemicals; and when it is, the matter has been handled in a somewhat perfunctory manner. Case studies of long-term risks are conducted for five Superfund sites that are contaminated with one or more non-radioactive carcinogens. Under the same assumptions used for the disposal of high-level radioactive wastes, future subsistence farmers would be exposed to significant individual risks, in some cases with lifetime fatality risk equal to unity. The important policy questions on long-term risk regulation are identified, and the conceptual decision-making framework to regulate long-term risk is presented. The results of decision tree analysis of cleanup alternatives for the Crystal Chemical site indicate that discount rate has profound impact on the results of the analysis and significant implication with regard to intergenerational equity. It is expected that other policy factors could have similar impacts. There is a need to use the proposed decision-making framework to systemically study those factors and make rational policy decisions accordingly.

Qualitative analysis of how patients decide that they want risk-reducing mastectomy, and the implications for surgeons in responding to emotionally-motivated patient requests

PubMed Central

Whiting, Demian; Fielden, Hannah G.; Saini, Pooja; Beesley, Helen; Holcombe, Christopher; Holcombe, Susan; Greenhalgh, Lyn; Fairburn, Louise; Salmon, Peter

2017-01-01

Objective Contemporary approaches to medical decision-making advise that clinicians should respect patients’ decisions. However, patients’ decisions are often shaped by heuristics, such as being guided by emotion, rather than by objective risk and benefit. Risk-reducing mastectomy (RRM) decisions focus this dilemma sharply. RRM reduces breast cancer (BC) risk, but is invasive and can have iatrogenic consequences. Previous evidence suggests that emotion guides patients’ decision-making about RRM. We interviewed patients to better understand how they made decisions about RRM, using findings to consider how clinicians could ethically respond to their decisions. Methods Qualitative face-to-face interviews with 34 patients listed for RRM surgery and two who had decided against RRM. Results Patients generally did not use objective risk estimates or, indeed, consider risks and benefits of RRM. Instead emotions guided their decisions: they chose RRM because they feared BC and wanted to do ‘all they could’ to prevent it. Most therefore perceived RRM to be the ‘obvious’ option and made the decision easily. However, many recounted extensive post-decisional deliberation, generally directed towards justifying the original decision. A few patients deliberated before the decision because fears of surgery counterbalanced those of BC. Conclusion Patients seeking RRM were motivated by fear of BC, and the need to avoid potential regret for not doing all they could to prevent it. We suggest that choices such as that for RRM, which are made emotionally, can be respected as autonomous decisions, provided patients have considered risks and benefits. Drawing on psychological theory about how people do make decisions, as well as normative views of how they should, we propose that practitioners can guide consideration of risks and benefits even, where necessary, after patients have opted for surgery. This model of practice could be extended to other medical decisions that are influenced by patients’ emotions. PMID:28552971

Qualitative analysis of how patients decide that they want risk-reducing mastectomy, and the implications for surgeons in responding to emotionally-motivated patient requests.

PubMed

Brown, Stephen L; Whiting, Demian; Fielden, Hannah G; Saini, Pooja; Beesley, Helen; Holcombe, Christopher; Holcombe, Susan; Greenhalgh, Lyn; Fairburn, Louise; Salmon, Peter

2017-01-01

Contemporary approaches to medical decision-making advise that clinicians should respect patients' decisions. However, patients' decisions are often shaped by heuristics, such as being guided by emotion, rather than by objective risk and benefit. Risk-reducing mastectomy (RRM) decisions focus this dilemma sharply. RRM reduces breast cancer (BC) risk, but is invasive and can have iatrogenic consequences. Previous evidence suggests that emotion guides patients' decision-making about RRM. We interviewed patients to better understand how they made decisions about RRM, using findings to consider how clinicians could ethically respond to their decisions. Qualitative face-to-face interviews with 34 patients listed for RRM surgery and two who had decided against RRM. Patients generally did not use objective risk estimates or, indeed, consider risks and benefits of RRM. Instead emotions guided their decisions: they chose RRM because they feared BC and wanted to do 'all they could' to prevent it. Most therefore perceived RRM to be the 'obvious' option and made the decision easily. However, many recounted extensive post-decisional deliberation, generally directed towards justifying the original decision. A few patients deliberated before the decision because fears of surgery counterbalanced those of BC. Patients seeking RRM were motivated by fear of BC, and the need to avoid potential regret for not doing all they could to prevent it. We suggest that choices such as that for RRM, which are made emotionally, can be respected as autonomous decisions, provided patients have considered risks and benefits. Drawing on psychological theory about how people do make decisions, as well as normative views of how they should, we propose that practitioners can guide consideration of risks and benefits even, where necessary, after patients have opted for surgery. This model of practice could be extended to other medical decisions that are influenced by patients' emotions.

Strategic and non-strategic problem gamblers differ on decision-making under risk and ambiguity.

PubMed

Lorains, Felicity K; Dowling, Nicki A; Enticott, Peter G; Bradshaw, John L; Trueblood, Jennifer S; Stout, Julie C

2014-07-01

To analyse problem gamblers' decision-making under conditions of risk and ambiguity, investigate underlying psychological factors associated with their choice behaviour and examine whether decision-making differed in strategic (e.g., sports betting) and non-strategic (e.g., electronic gaming machine) problem gamblers. Cross-sectional study. Out-patient treatment centres and university testing facilities in Victoria, Australia. Thirty-nine problem gamblers and 41 age, gender and estimated IQ-matched controls. Decision-making tasks included the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and a loss aversion task. The Prospect Valence Learning (PVL) model was used to provide an explanation of cognitive, motivational and response style factors involved in IGT performance. Overall, problem gamblers performed more poorly than controls on both the IGT (P = 0.04) and the loss aversion task (P = 0.01), and their IGT decisions were associated with heightened attention to gains (P = 0.003) and less consistency (P = 0.002). Strategic problem gamblers did not differ from matched controls on either decision-making task, but non-strategic problem gamblers performed worse on both the IGT (P = 0.006) and the loss aversion task (P = 0.02). Furthermore, we found differences in the PVL model parameters underlying strategic and non-strategic problem gamblers' choices on the IGT. Problem gamblers demonstrated poor decision-making under conditions of risk and ambiguity. Strategic (e.g. sports betting, poker) and non-strategic (e.g. electronic gaming machines) problem gamblers differed in decision-making and the underlying psychological processes associated with their decisions. © 2014 Society for the Study of Addiction.

NASA Risk-Informed Decision Making Handbook

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Stamatelatos, Michael; Maggio, Gaspare; Everett, Christopher; Youngblood, Robert; Rutledge, Peter; Benjamin, Allan; Williams, Rodney; Smith, Curtis; Guarro, Sergio

2010-01-01

This handbook provides guidance for conducting risk-informed decision making in the context of NASA risk management (RM), with a focus on the types of direction-setting key decisions that are characteristic of the NASA program and project life cycles, and which produce derived requirements in accordance with existing systems engineering practices that flow down through the NASA organizational hierarchy. The guidance in this handbook is not meant to be prescriptive. Instead, it is meant to be general enough, and contain a sufficient diversity of examples, to enable the reader to adapt the methods as needed to the particular decision problems that he or she faces. The handbook highlights major issues to consider when making decisions in the presence of potentially significant uncertainty, so that the user is better able to recognize and avoid pitfalls that might otherwise be experienced.

Cognitive Processes in Decisions Under Risk are not the Same as in Decisions Under Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Volz, Kirsten G.; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2012-01-01

We deal with risk versus uncertainty, a distinction that is of fundamental importance for cognitive neuroscience yet largely neglected. In a world of risk (“small world”), all alternatives, consequences, and probabilities are known. In uncertain (“large”) worlds, some of this information is unknown or unknowable. Most of cognitive neuroscience studies exclusively study the neural correlates for decisions under risk (e.g., lotteries), with the tacit implication that understanding these would lead to an understanding of decision making in general. First, we show that normative strategies for decisions under risk do not generalize to uncertain worlds, where simple heuristics are often the more accurate strategies. Second, we argue that the cognitive processes for making decisions in a world of risk are not the same as those for dealing with uncertainty. Because situations with known risks are the exception rather than the rule in human evolution, it is unlikely that our brains are adapted to them. We therefore suggest a paradigm shift toward studying decision processes in uncertain worlds and provide first examples. PMID:22807893

[The role of information in public health decision-making].

PubMed

Cecchi, Catherine

2008-01-01

Public health, prevention, health education and health promotion are inseparable from the concepts of information and communication. Information should respond as much as possible to the needs of professionals, decision-makers, and consumers who are more and more concerned and conscious of its importance in light of "information overload", various dissemination channels and the multiplicity of its sources. There are numerous issues at stake ranging from comprehension, to the validation of health information, health education, health promotion, prevention, decision-making, as well as issues related to knowledge and power. Irrespective of the type of choice to be made, the need for information, knowledge, and know-how is inseparable from that of other tools or regulatory measures required for decision-making. Information is the same as competence, epidemiological and population data, health data, scientific opinion, and expert conferences--all are needed to assist in decision-making. Based on the principle of precaution, information must increasingly take into account the rejection of a society which often reasons on the basis of a presumption of zero-risk, in an idealistic manner, and which also excludes the possibility of new risks. The consumer positions himself as the regulator of decisions, specifically those with regard to the notion of acceptable level of risk. All of the actors involved in the health system are or become at one moment or another public health decision-makers. Their decision might be based either on an analytical approach, or on an intuitive approach. Although the act of decision-making is the least visible part of public health policy, it is certainly the driving force. This process should integrate the perspective of all of the relevant players, including consumers, who are currently situated more and more frequently at the heart of the health system. Public health decision-making is conducted as a function of political, strategic and environmental issues; of lobbies and their power; and of social maturation. Decision-making is a necessity. Making the right choice at the right time requires high quality information, and it is often necessary to respect a certain amount of time for reflection and ripening of an issue in order to make the best possible decision. The media and consumers play an increasingly significant role in public health decision-making and in the ensuing legislative consequences and debates which come as a result. Access to information is changing, especially thanks to the Internet which is completely modifying the global scenery of knowledge and know-how. Information supports decision-making with calculated risk, and it offers the opportunity to make choices and decisions, recognising that "to choose, is sometimes to relinquish".

Parental decision-making after ultrasound diagnosis of a serious foetal abnormality.

PubMed

Bijma, Hilmar H; Wildschut, Hajo I J; van der Heide, Agnes; Passchier, Jan; Wladimiroff, Juriy W; van der Maas, Paul J

2005-01-01

The purpose of this article is to provide clinicians who are involved in the field of foetal medicine with a comprehensive overview of theories that are relevant for the parental decision-making process after ultrasound diagnosis of a serious foetal abnormality. Since little data are available of parental decision-making after ultrasound diagnosis of foetal abnormality, we reviewed the literature on parental decision-making in genetic counselling of couples at increased genetic risk together with the literature on general decision-making theories. The findings were linked to the specific situation of parental decision-making after an ultrasound diagnosis of foetal abnormality. Based on genetic counselling studies, several cognitive mechanisms play a role in parental decision-making regarding future pregnancies. Parents often have a binary perception of risk. Probabilistic information is translated into two options: the child will or will not be affected. The graduality of chance seems to be of little importance in this process. Instead, the focus shifts to the possible consequences for future family life. General decision-making theories often focus on rationality and coherence of the decision-making process. However, studies of both the influence of framing and the influence of stress indicate that emotional mechanisms can have an important and beneficial function in the decision-making process. Cognitive mechanisms that are elicited by emotions and that are not necessarily rational can have an important and beneficial function in parental decision-making after ultrasound diagnosis of a foetal abnormality. Consequently, the process of parental decision-making should not solely be assessed on the basis of its rationality, but also on the basis of the parental emotional outcome. Copyright (c) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Managing risk during care transitions when approaching end of life: A qualitative study of patients' and health care professionals' decision making.

PubMed

Coombs, Maureen A; Parker, Roses; de Vries, Kay

2017-07-01

Increasing importance is being placed on the coordination of services at the end of life. To describe decision-making processes that influence transitions in care when approaching the end of life. Qualitative study using field observations and longitudinal semi-structured interviews. Field observations were undertaken in three sites: a residential care home, a medical assessment unit and a general medical unit in New Zealand. The Supportive and Palliative Care Indicators Tool was used to identify participants with advanced and progressive illness. Patients and family members were interviewed on recruitment and 3-4 months later. Four weeks of fieldwork were conducted in each site. A total of 40 interviews were conducted: 29 initial interviews and 11 follow-up interviews. Thematic analysis was undertaken. Managing risk was an important factor that influenced transitions in care. Patients and health care staff held different perspectives on how such risks were managed. At home, patients tolerated increasing risk and used specific support measures to manage often escalating health and social problems. In contrast, decisions about discharge in hospital were driven by hospital staff who were risk-adverse. Availability of community and carer services supported risk management while a perceived need for early discharge decision making in hospital and making 'safe' discharge options informed hospital discharge decisions. While managing risk is an important factor during care transitions, patients should be able to make choices on how to live with risk at the end of life. This requires reconsideration of transitional care and current discharge planning processes at the end of life.

Tick-Tock Goes the Croc: A High-Density EEG Study of Risk-Reactivity and Binge-Drinking.

PubMed

Kiat, John E; Cheadle, Jacob E

2018-05-31

Links between individual differences in risk processing and high-risk behaviors such as binge drinking have long been the focus of active research. However, investigations in this area almost exclusively utilize decision-making focused paradigms. This emphasis makes it difficult to assess links between risk behaviors and raw risk reactivity independent of decision and feedback processes. A deeper understanding of this association has the potential to shed light on the role of risk reactivity in high-risk behavior susceptibility. To contribute towards this aim, this study utilizes a popular risk-taking game, the crocodile dentist, to assess links between individual differences in decision-free risk-reactivity and reported binge drinking frequency levels. In this task, participants engage in a series of decision-free escalating risk responses. Risk-reactivity was assessed by measuring Late Positive Potential responses towards risk-taking action initiation cues using high-density 256-Channel EEG. The results indicate that, after controlling for overall alcohol consumption frequency, higher rates of reported binge drinking are associated with both increased general risk-taking responsivity and increased risk-reactivity escalation as a function of risk level. These findings highlight intriguing links between risk reactivity and binge drinking frequency, making key contributions in the areas of risk-taking and affective science.

Risk Assessment Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

The neural basis of financial risk taking.

PubMed

Kuhnen, Camelia M; Knutson, Brian

2005-09-01

Investors systematically deviate from rationality when making financial decisions, yet the mechanisms responsible for these deviations have not been identified. Using event-related fMRI, we examined whether anticipatory neural activity would predict optimal and suboptimal choices in a financial decision-making task. We characterized two types of deviations from the optimal investment strategy of a rational risk-neutral agent as risk-seeking mistakes and risk-aversion mistakes. Nucleus accumbens activation preceded risky choices as well as risk-seeking mistakes, while anterior insula activation preceded riskless choices as well as risk-aversion mistakes. These findings suggest that distinct neural circuits linked to anticipatory affect promote different types of financial choices and indicate that excessive activation of these circuits may lead to investing mistakes. Thus, consideration of anticipatory neural mechanisms may add predictive power to the rational actor model of economic decision making.

What factors do patients consider most important in making lung cancer screening decisions? Findings from a demonstration project conducted in the Veterans Health Administration.

PubMed

Lillie, Sarah E; Fu, Steven S; Fabbrini, Angela E; Rice, Kathryn L; Clothier, Barbara; Nelson, David B; Doro, Elizabeth A; Moughrabieh, M Anas; Partin, Melissa R

2017-02-01

The National Lung Screening Trial recently reported that annual low-dose computed tomography screening is associated with decreased lung cancer mortality in high-risk smokers. This study sought to identify the factors patients consider important in making lung cancer screening (LCS) decisions, and explore variations by patient characteristics and LCS participation. This observational survey study evaluated the Minneapolis VA LCS Clinical Demonstration Project in which LCS-eligible Veterans (N=1388) were randomized to either Direct LCS Invitation (mailed with decision aid, N=926) or Usual Care (provider referral, N=462). We surveyed participants three months post-randomization (response rate 44%) and report the proportion of respondents rating eight decision-making factors (benefits, harms, and neutral factors) as important by condition, patient characteristics, and LCS completion. Overall, the most important factor was personal risk of lung cancer and the least important factor was health risks from LCS. The reported importance varied by patient characteristics, including smoking status, health status, and education level. Overall, the potential harms of LCS were reported less important than the benefits or the neutral decision-making factors. Exposure to Direct LCS Invitation (with decision aid) increased Veterans' attention to specific decision-making factors; compared to Usual Care respondents, a larger proportion of Direct LCS Invitation respondents rated the chance of false-positive results, LCS knowledge, LCS convenience, and anxiety as important. Those completing LCS considered screening harms less important, with the exception of incidental findings. Decision tools influence Veterans' perceptions about LCS decision-making factors. As the factors important to LCS decision making vary by patient characteristics, targeted materials for specific subgroups may be warranted. Attention should be paid to how LCS incidental findings are communicated. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Adolescent Risk Taking, Cocaine Self-Administration, and Striatal Dopamine Signaling

PubMed Central

Mitchell, Marci R; Weiss, Virginia G; Beas, B Sofia; Morgan, Drake; Bizon, Jennifer L; Setlow, Barry

2014-01-01

Poor decision making and elevated risk taking, particularly during adolescence, have been strongly linked to drug use; however the causal relationships among these factors are not well understood. To address these relationships, a rat model (the Risky Decision-making Task; RDT) was used to determine whether individual differences in risk taking during adolescence predict later propensity for cocaine self-administration and/or whether cocaine self-administration causes alterations in risk taking. In addition, the RDT was used to determine how risk taking is modulated by dopamine signaling, particularly in the striatum. Results from these experiments indicated that greater risk taking during adolescence predicted greater intake of cocaine during acquisition of self-administration in adulthood, and that adult cocaine self-administration in turn caused elevated risk taking that was present following 6 weeks of abstinence. Greater adolescent risk taking was associated with lower striatal D2 receptor mRNA expression, and pharmacological activation of D2/3 receptors in the ventral, but not dorsal, striatum induced a decrease in risk taking. These findings indicate that the relationship between elevated risk taking and cocaine self-administration is bi-directional, and that low striatal D2 receptor expression may represent a predisposing factor for both maladaptive decision making and cocaine use. Furthermore, these findings suggest that striatal D2 receptors represent a therapeutic target for attenuating maladaptive decision making when choices include risk of adverse consequences. PMID:24145852

Clinical Equipoise and Shared Decision-making in Pulmonary Nodule Management. A Survey of American Thoracic Society Clinicians.

PubMed

Iaccarino, Jonathan M; Simmons, James; Gould, Michael K; Slatore, Christopher G; Woloshin, Steven; Schwartz, Lisa M; Wiener, Renda Soylemez

2017-06-01

Guidelines for pulmonary nodule evaluation suggest a variety of strategies, reflecting the lack of high-quality evidence demonstrating the superiority of any one approach. It is unclear whether clinicians agree that multiple management options are appropriate at different levels of risk and whether this impacts their decision-making approaches with patients. To assess clinicians' perceptions of the appropriateness of various diagnostic strategies, approach to decision-making, and perceived clinical equipoise in pulmonary nodule evaluation. We developed and administered a web-based survey in March and April, 2014 to clinician members of the American Thoracic Society. The primary outcome was perceived appropriateness of pulmonary nodule evaluation strategies in three clinical vignettes with different malignancy risk. We compared responses to guideline recommendations and analyzed clinician characteristics associated with a reported shared decision-making approach. We also assessed clinicians' likelihood to enroll patients in hypothetical randomized trials comparing nodule evaluation strategies. Of 5,872 American Thoracic Society members e-mailed, 1,444 opened the e-mail and 428 eligible clinicians participated in the survey (response rate, 30.0% among those who opened the invitation; 7% overall). The mean number of options considered appropriate increased with pretest probability of cancer, ranging from 1.8 (SD, 1.2) for the low-risk case to 3.5 (1.1) for the high-risk case (P < 0.0001). As recommended by guidelines, the proportion that deemed surgical resection as an appropriate option also increased with cancer risk (P < 0.0001). One-half of clinicians (50.4%) reported engaging in shared decision-making with patients for pulmonary nodule management; this was more commonly reported by clinicians with more years of experience (P = 0.01) and those who reported greater comfort in managing pulmonary nodules (P = 0.005). Although one-half (49.9%) deemed the evidence for pulmonary nodule evaluation to be strong, most clinicians were willing to enroll patients in randomized trials to compare nodule management strategies in all risk categories (low risk, 87.6%; moderate risk, 89.7%; high risk, 63.0%). Consistent with guideline recommendations, clinicians embrace multiple options for pulmonary nodule evaluation and many are open to shared decision-making. Clinicians support the need for randomized clinical trials to strengthen the evidence for nodule evaluation, which will further improve decision-making.

Adolescent decision making about participation in a hypothetical HIV vaccine trial.

PubMed

Alexander, Andreia B; Ott, Mary A; Lally, Michelle A; Sniecinski, Kevin; Baker, Alyne; Zimet, Gregory D

2015-03-10

The purpose of this study was to examine the process of adolescent decision-making about participation in an HIV vaccine clinical trial, comparing it to adult models of informed consent with attention to developmental differences. As part of a larger study of preventive misconception in adolescent HIV vaccine trials, we interviewed 33 male and female 16-19-year-olds who have sex with men. Participants underwent a simulated HIV vaccine trial consent process, and then completed a semistructured interview about their decision making process when deciding whether or not to enroll in and HIV vaccine trial. An ethnographic content analysis approach was utilized. Twelve concepts related to adolescents' decision-making about participation in an HIV vaccine trial were identified and mapped onto Appelbaum and Grisso's four components of decision making capacity including understanding of vaccines and how they work, the purpose of the study, trial procedures, and perceived trial risks and benefits, an appreciation of their own situation, the discussion and weighing of risks and benefits, discussing the need to consult with others about participation, motivations for participation, and their choice to participate. The results of this study suggest that most adolescents at high risk for HIV demonstrate the key abilities needed to make meaningful decisions about HIV vaccine clinical trial participation. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Backcountry snowmobilers' risk perceptions, avalanche related information seeking behaviours, preparedness and decision-making processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Jennifer

Although there has been substantial research on the avoidance of risk, much less has been completed on voluntary risk. This study examined backcountry snowmobilers' risk perceptions, avalanche related information seeking behaviours, and decision-making processes when dealing with avalanches and backcountry risk in Canada. To accomplish this, in-depth, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 17 participants who were involved in backcountry snowmobiling. Interviews were done both in person and by telephone. The results of this study show that, unlike previous research on snowmobilers, the participants of this study were well prepared and knowledgeable about backcountry risks. All 17 participants stated that they carried a shovel, probe, and transceiver with them on each backcountry trip, and 10 participants had taken an avalanche safety course. Group dynamics and positive peer pressure were influential in promoting safe backcountry behaviour. KEYWORDS: Backcountry snowmobiling, Avalanches, Voluntary Risk, Preparedness, Decision-Making.

"People Can Go against the Government": Risk-Based Decision Making and High School Students' Concepts of Society

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Radakovic, Nenad

2015-01-01

Research in mathematics education stresses the importance of content knowledge in solving authentic tasks in statistics and in risk-based decision making. Existing research supports the claim that students rely on content knowledge and context expertise to make sense of data. In this article, however, I present evidence that the relationship…

Testosterone, Cortisol and Financial Risk-Taking

PubMed Central

Herbert, Joe

2018-01-01

Both testosterone and cortisol have major actions on financial decision-making closely related to their primary biological functions, reproductive success and response to stress, respectively. Financial risk-taking represents a particular example of strategic decisions made in the context of choice under conditions of uncertainty. Such decisions have multiple components, and this article considers how much we know of how either hormone affects risk-appetite, reward value, information processing and estimation of the costs and benefits of potential success or failure, both personal and social. It also considers how far we can map these actions on neural mechanisms underlying risk appetite and decision-making, with particular reference to areas of the brain concerned in either cognitive or emotional functions. PMID:29867399

A Briefing on Metrics and Risks for Autonomous Decision-Making in Aerospace Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frost, Susan; Goebel, Kai Frank; Galvan, Jose Ramon

2012-01-01

Significant technology advances will enable future aerospace systems to safely and reliably make decisions autonomously, or without human interaction. The decision-making may result in actions that enable an aircraft or spacecraft in an off-nominal state or with slightly degraded components to achieve mission performance and safety goals while reducing or avoiding damage to the aircraft or spacecraft. Some key technology enablers for autonomous decision-making include: a continuous state awareness through the maturation of the prognostics health management field, novel sensor development, and the considerable gains made in computation power and data processing bandwidth versus system size. Sophisticated algorithms and physics based models coupled with these technological advances allow reliable assessment of a system, subsystem, or components. Decisions that balance mission objectives and constraints with remaining useful life predictions can be made autonomously to maintain safety requirements, optimal performance, and ensure mission objectives. This autonomous approach to decision-making will come with new risks and benefits, some of which will be examined in this paper. To start, an account of previous work to categorize or quantify autonomy in aerospace systems will be presented. In addition, a survey of perceived risks in autonomous decision-making in the context of piloted aircraft and remotely piloted or completely autonomous unmanned autonomous systems (UAS) will be presented based on interviews that were conducted with individuals from industry, academia, and government.

Communication about colorectal cancer screening in Britain: public preferences for an expert recommendation.

PubMed

Waller, J; Macedo, A; von Wagner, C; Simon, A E; Jones, C; Hammersley, V; Weller, D; Wardle, J; Campbell, C

2012-12-04

Informed decision-making approaches to cancer screening emphasise the importance of decisions being determined by individuals' own values and preferences. However, advice from a trusted source may also contribute to autonomous decision-making. This study examined preferences regarding a recommendation from the NHS and information provision in the context of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. In face-to-face interviews, a population-based sample of adults across Britain (n=1964; age 50-80 years) indicated their preference between: (1) a strong recommendation to participate in CRC screening, (2) a recommendation alongside advice to make an individual decision, and (3) no recommendation but advice to make an individual decision. Other measures included trust in the NHS and preferences for information on benefits and risks. Most respondents (84%) preferred a recommendation (47% strong recommendation, 37% recommendation plus individual decision-making advice), but the majority also wanted full information on risks (77%) and benefits (78%). Men were more in favour of a recommendation than women (86% vs 81%). Trust in the NHS was high overall, but the minority who expressed low trust were less likely to want a recommendation. Most British adults want full information on risks and benefits of screening but they also want a recommendation from an authoritative source. An 'expert' view may be an important part of autonomous health decision-making.

Designing Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways using Many-Objective Robust Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwakkel, Jan; Haasnoot, Marjolijn

2017-04-01

Dealing with climate risks in water management requires confronting a wide variety of deeply uncertain factors, while navigating a many dimensional space of trade-offs amongst objectives. There is an emerging body of literature on supporting this type of decision problem, under the label of decision making under deep uncertainty. Two approaches within this literature are Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. In recent work, these approaches have been compared. One of the main conclusions of this comparison was that they are highly complementary. Many-Objective Robust Decision Making is a model based decision support approach, while Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is primarily a conceptual framework for the design of flexible strategies that can be adapted over time in response to how the future is actually unfolding. In this research we explore this complementarity in more detail. Specifically, we demonstrate how Many-Objective Robust Decision Making can be used to design adaptation pathways. We demonstrate this combined approach using a water management problem, in the Netherlands. The water level of Lake IJselmeer, the main fresh water resource of the Netherlands, is currently managed through discharge by gravity. Due to climate change, this won't be possible in the future, unless water levels are changed. Changing the water level has undesirable flood risk and spatial planning consequences. The challenge is to find promising adaptation pathways that balance objectives related to fresh water supply, flood risk, and spatial issues, while accounting for uncertain climatic and land use change. We conclude that the combination of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is particularly suited for dealing with deeply uncertain climate risks.

Decision making in the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART): anterior cingulate cortex signals loss aversion but not the infrequency of risky choices.

PubMed

Fukunaga, Rena; Brown, Joshua W; Bogg, Tim

2012-09-01

The inferior frontal gyrus/anterior insula (IFG/AI) and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) are key regions involved in risk appraisal during decision making, but accounts of how these regions contribute to decision making under risk remain contested. To help clarify the roles of these and other related regions, we used a modified version of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (Lejuez et al., Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 8, 75-84, 2002) to distinguish between decision-making and feedback-related processes when participants decided to pursue a gain as the probability of loss increased parametrically. Specifically, we set out to test whether the ACC and IFG/AI regions correspond to loss aversion at the time of decision making in a way that is not confounded with either reward-seeking or infrequency effects. When participants chose to discontinue inflating the balloon (win option), we observed greater ACC and mainly bilateral IFG/AI activity at the time of decision as the probability of explosion increased, consistent with increased loss aversion but inconsistent with an infrequency effect. In contrast, we found robust vmPFC activity when participants chose to continue inflating the balloon (risky option), consistent with reward seeking. However, in the cingulate and in mainly bilateral IFG regions, blood-oxygenation-level-dependent activation decreased when participants chose to inflate the balloon as the probability of explosion increased, findings that are consistent with a reduced loss aversion signal. Our results highlight the existence of distinct reward-seeking and loss-averse signals during decision making, as well as the importance of distinguishing between decision and feedback signals.

‘Sometimes people let love conquer them’: how love, intimacy, and trust in relationships between men who have sex with men influence perceptions of sexual risk and sexual decision-making

PubMed Central

Goldenberg, Tamar; Finneran, Catherine; Andes, Karen L.; Stephenson, Rob

2015-01-01

Men who have sex with men account for a disproportionate burden of HIV incidence in the USA. Although much research has examined the drivers of sexual risk-taking, the emotional contexts in which men make sexual decisions has received little attention. In this three-phase, 10-week longitudinal qualitative study involving 25 gay and bisexual men, we used timeline-based interviews and quantitative web-based diaries about sexual and/or dating partners to examine how emotions influence HIV risk perceptions and sexual decision-making. Participants described love, intimacy, and trust as reducing HIV risk perceptions and facilitating engagement in condomless anal intercourse. Lust was not as linked with risk perceptions, but facilitated non condom-use through an increased willingness to engage in condomless anal intercourse, despite perceptions of risk. Results indicate that gay and bisexual men do not make sexual decisions in an emotional vacuum. Emotions influence perceptions of risk so that they do not necessarily align with biological risk factors. Emotional influences, especially the type and context of emotions, are important to consider to improve HIV prevention efforts among gay and bisexual men. PMID:25465292

Balancing Risk and Reward: A Rat Model of Risky Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Simon, Nicholas W.; Gilbert, Ryan J.; Mayse, Jeffrey D.; Bizon, Jennifer L.; Setlow, Barry

2009-01-01

We developed a behavioral task in rats to assess the influence of risk of punishment on decision-making. Male Long-Evans rats were given choices between pressing a lever to obtain a small, “safe” food reward and a large food reward associated with risk of punishment (footshock). Each test session consisted of 5 blocks of 10 choice trials, with punishment risk increasing with each consecutive block (0, 25, 50, 75, 100%). Preference for the large, “risky” reward declined with both increased probability and increased magnitude of punishment, and reward choice was not affected by the level of satiation or the order of risk presentation. Performance in this risky decision-making task was correlated with the degree to which the rats discounted the value of probabilistic rewards, but not delayed rewards. Finally, the acute effects of different doses of amphetamine and cocaine on risky decision-making were assessed. Systemic amphetamine administration caused a dose-dependent decrease in choice of the large risky reward (i.e. – it made rats more risk-averse). Cocaine did not cause a shift in reward choice, but instead impaired rats’ sensitivity to changes in punishment risk. These results should prove useful for investigating neuropsychiatric disorders in which risk taking is a prominent feature, such as attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder and addiction. PMID:19440192

Attitudes toward risk and ambiguity in patients with autism spectrum disorder.

PubMed

Fujino, Junya; Tei, Shisei; Hashimoto, Ryu-Ichiro; Itahashi, Takashi; Ohta, Haruhisa; Kanai, Chieko; Okada, Rieko; Kubota, Manabu; Nakamura, Motoaki; Kato, Nobumasa; Takahashi, Hidehiko

2017-01-01

Although the ability to make optimal decisions under uncertainty is an integral part of everyday life, individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) frequently report that they experience difficulties with this skill. In behavioral economics, researchers distinguish two types of uncertainty to understand decision-making in this setting: risk (known probabilities) and ambiguity (unknown probabilities). However, it remains unclear how individuals with ASD behave under risk and ambiguity, despite growing evidence of their altered decision-making under uncertainty. We therefore extended previous research by studying the attitudes of those with ASD toward risk and ambiguity in both positive and negative contexts (i.e., gain and loss). In gain contexts, no significant difference was observed between the groups in risk attitudes, but ambiguity aversion was attenuated in ASD. In loss contexts, ambiguity attitudes did not significantly differ between the groups, but the ASD participants were less risk-seeking compared with the controls. In addition, insensitivity to the context change under risk and ambiguity in ASD was both significantly associated with poor social skills. These results improve our understanding of altered decision-making under uncertainty by disentangling the attitudes toward risk and ambiguity in ASD individuals. Applying behavioral economic tools may provide insights into the mechanisms underlying behavioral disturbances in ASD.

Balancing risk and reward: a rat model of risky decision making.

PubMed

Simon, Nicholas W; Gilbert, Ryan J; Mayse, Jeffrey D; Bizon, Jennifer L; Setlow, Barry

2009-09-01

We developed a behavioral task in rats to assess the influence of risk of punishment on decision making. Male Long-Evans rats were given choices between pressing a lever to obtain a small, 'safe' food reward and a large food reward associated with risk of punishment (footshock). Each test session consisted of 5 blocks of 10 choice trials, with punishment risk increasing with each consecutive block (0, 25, 50, 75, 100%). Preference for the large, 'risky' reward declined with both increased probability and increased magnitude of punishment, and reward choice was not affected by the level of satiation or the order of risk presentation. Performance in this risky decision-making task was correlated with the degree to which the rats discounted the value of probabilistic rewards, but not delayed rewards. Finally, the acute effects of different doses of amphetamine and cocaine on risky decision making were assessed. Systemic amphetamine administration caused a dose-dependent decrease in choice of the large risky reward (ie, it made rats more risk averse). Cocaine did not cause a shift in reward choice, but instead impaired the rats' sensitivity to changes in punishment risk. These results should prove useful for investigating neuropsychiatric disorders in which risk taking is a prominent feature, such as attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder and addiction.

Deciding for Future Selves Reduces Loss Aversion

PubMed Central

Cheng, Qiqi; He, Guibing

2017-01-01

In this paper, we present an incentivized experiment to investigate the degree of loss aversion when people make decisions for their current selves and future selves under risk. We find that when participants make decisions for their future selves, they are less loss averse compared to when they make decisions for their current selves. This finding is consistent with the interpretation of loss aversion as a bias in decision-making driven by emotions, which are reduced when making decisions for future selves. Our findings endorsed the external validity of previous studies on the impact of emotion on loss aversion in a real world decision-making environment. PMID:28979234

Deciding for Future Selves Reduces Loss Aversion.

PubMed

Cheng, Qiqi; He, Guibing

2017-01-01

In this paper, we present an incentivized experiment to investigate the degree of loss aversion when people make decisions for their current selves and future selves under risk. We find that when participants make decisions for their future selves, they are less loss averse compared to when they make decisions for their current selves. This finding is consistent with the interpretation of loss aversion as a bias in decision-making driven by emotions, which are reduced when making decisions for future selves. Our findings endorsed the external validity of previous studies on the impact of emotion on loss aversion in a real world decision-making environment.

Salivary cortisol and alpha-amylase levels during an assessment procedure correlate differently with risk-taking measures in male and female police recruits

PubMed Central

van den Bos, Ruud; Taris, Ruben; Scheppink, Bianca; de Haan, Lydia; Verster, Joris C.

2013-01-01

Recent laboratory studies have shown that men display more risk-taking behavior in decision-making tasks following stress, whilst women are more risk-aversive or become more task-focused. In addition, these studies have shown that sex differences are related to levels of the stress hormone cortisol (indicative of activation of the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenocortical-axis): the higher the levels of cortisol the more risk-taking behavior is shown by men, whereas women generally display more risk-aversive or task-focused behavior following higher levels of cortisol. Here, we assessed whether such relationships hold outside the laboratory, correlating levels of cortisol obtained during a job-related assessment procedure with decision-making parameters in the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT) in male and female police recruits. The CGT allows for discriminating different aspects of reward-based decision-making. In addition, we correlated levels of alpha-amylase [indicative of activation of the sympatho-adrenomedullary-axis (SAM)] and decision-making parameters. In line with earlier studies men and women only differed in risk-adjustment in the CGT. Salivary cortisol levels correlated positively and strongly with risk-taking measures in men, which was significantly different from the weak negative correlation in women. In contrast, and less strongly so, salivary alpha-amylase levels correlated positively with risk-taking in women, which was significantly different from the weak negative correlation with risk-taking in men. Collectively, these data support and extend data of earlier studies indicating that risky decision-making in men and women is differently affected by stress hormones. The data are briefly discussed in relation to the effects of stress on gambling. PMID:24474909

Factors influencing risky decision-making in patients with cerebral infarction.

PubMed

Gong, Jingjing; Zhang, Yan; Wu, Bing; Feng, Jun; Zhang, Weiwei; Wang, Shijie; Huang, Yonghua; Wu, Xinhuai

2015-01-01

Numerous studies have found that the framing effect is common in medical scenarios, but few studies have examined the influence of the framing effect upon thrombolytic therapy for cerebral infarction. In this study, 1040 inpatients and outpatients in the department of neurology were recruited to explore whether there is a framing effect in decision-making within thrombolytic therapy, and if so, which factors influence that effect. The findings from Study 1 indicate that the framing effect occurred in patients both with and without cerebral infarction (χ(2) = 7.90, p = .005; χ(2) = 5.16, p = .023, respectively), with both groups displaying risk-seeking behavior (thrombolytic therapy) in the positive frame and no risk aversion or risk seeking in the negative frame. The results of Study 2 show that the patients preferred risk seeking in both collaborative and individual decision-making. In the collaborative decision-making group, the patients in the senior group showed the framing effect (χ(2) = 5.35, p < .05), with the patients in the positive frame (G) showing more significant risk seeking than both those in the negative frame (H) and those in the other positive frame (A, C, and E). In summary, decision-making about thrombolytic therapy in patients with cerebral infarction is influenced by the framing effect, and some influencing factors should be attended in clinical practice. Further research is necessary to guide the treatment of cerebral infarction.

Neurobiological and Memory Models of Risky Decision Making in Adolescents versus Young Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reyna, Valerie F.; Estrada, Steven M.; DeMarinis, Jessica A.; Myers, Regina M.; Stanisz, Janine M.; Mills, Britain A.

2011-01-01

Predictions of fuzzy-trace theory and neurobiological approaches are examined regarding risk taking in a classic decision-making task--the framing task--as well as in the context of real-life risk taking. We report the 1st study of framing effects in adolescents versus adults, varying risk and reward, and relate choices to individual differences,…

The Effect of Knowledge of Online Security Risks on Consumer Decision Making in B2C e-Commerce

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Ping An

2010-01-01

This dissertation research studied how different degrees of knowledge of online security risks affect B2C (business-to-consumer) e-commerce consumer decision making. Online information security risks, such as identity theft, have increasingly become a major factor inhibiting the potential growth of e-commerce. On the other hand, e-commerce…

A Tri-Reference Point Theory of Decision Making under Risk

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, X. T.; Johnson, Joseph G.

2012-01-01

The tri-reference point (TRP) theory takes into account minimum requirements (MR), the status quo (SQ), and goals (G) in decision making under risk. The 3 reference points demarcate risky outcomes and risk perception into 4 functional regions: success (expected value of x greater than or equal to G), gain (SQ less than x less than G), loss (MR…

Attitudes toward shared decision-making and risk communication practices in residents and their teachers.

PubMed

van der Horst, Klazine; Giger, Max; Siegrist, Michael

2011-01-01

Health professionals' attitudes toward shared decision-making (SDM) are an important facilitator of SDM, but information on these attitudes is limited. The purpose of this study is to examine attitudes, education and practices around SDM and risk communication in residents and their teachers. A questionnaire was mailed to residents in Swiss hospitals in postgraduate medical training programs assessing risk communication education and SDM. In an Internet survey, teachers of the medical training programs answered questions on SDM and risk communication practices. Data were analyzed with ANOVAs and paired samples t-tests. Significant differences in residents' and teachers' opinions regarding SDM were found between specialties and number of residents in a residency (1-3, 4-10, ≥11 residents). Teachers showed a high use of verbal risk communication. Neither residents nor teachers expressed a strong feeling that they lacked the time for decision-making. Residents were significantly more negative about the ability of patients to participate in decision-making compared to their teachers. As residents are more negative about SDM compared to teachers and teachers do not always use the preferred and best methods for risk communication, more education for teachers and residents is needed to improve communication practices in the future.

Prioritization of information using decision support systems for seismic risk in Bucharest city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armas, Iuliana; Gheorghe, Diana

2014-05-01

Nowadays, because of the ever increasing volume of information, policymakers are faced with decision making problems. Achieving an objective and suitable decision making may become a challenge. In such situations decision support systems (DSS) have been developed. DSS can assist in the decision making process, offering support on how a decision should be made, rather than what decision should be made (Simon, 1979). This in turn potentially involves a huge number of stakeholders and criteria. Regarding seismic risk, Bucharest City is highly vulnerable (Mandrescu et al., 2007). The aim of this study is to implement a spatial decision support system in order to secure a suitable shelter in case of an earthquake occurrence in the historical centre of Bucharest City. In case of a seismic risk, a shelter is essential for sheltering people who lost their homes or whose homes are in danger of collapsing while people at risk receive first aid in the post-disaster phase. For the present study, the SMCE Module for ILWIS 3.4 was used. The methodology included structuring the problem by creating a decision tree, standardizing and weighting of the criteria. The results showed that the most suitable buildings are Tania Hotel, Hanul lui Manuc, The National Bank of Romania, The Romanian Commercial Bank and The National History Museum.

Conceptual and Empirical Approaches to Financial Decision-making by Older Adults: Results from a Financial Decision-making Rating Scale.

PubMed

Lichtenberg, Peter A; Ocepek-Welikson, Katja; Ficker, Lisa J; Gross, Evan; Rahman-Filipiak, Analise; Teresi, Jeanne A

2018-01-01

The objectives of this study were threefold: (1) to empirically test the conceptual model proposed by the Lichtenberg Financial Decision-making Rating Scale (LFDRS); (2) to examine the psychometric properties of the LFDRS contextual factors in financial decision-making by investigating both the reliability and convergent validity of the subscales and total scale, and (3) extending previous work on the scale through the collection of normative data on financial decision-making. A convenience sample of 200 independent function and community dwelling older adults underwent cognitive and financial management testing and were interviewed using the LFDRS. Confirmatory factor analysis, internal consistency measures, and hierarchical regression were used in a sample of 200 community-dwelling older adults, all of whom were making or had recently made a significant financial decision. Results confirmed the scale's reliability and supported the conceptual model. Convergent validity analyses indicate that as hypothesized, cognition is a significant predictor of risk scores. Financial management scores, however, were not predictive of decision-making risk scores. The psychometric properties of the LFDRS support the scale's use as it was proposed. The LFDRS instructions and scale are provided for clinicians to use in financial capacity assessments.

Decision-making under risk and ambiguity in low-birth-weight pigs.

PubMed

Murphy, Eimear; Kraak, Lynn; van den Broek, Jan; Nordquist, Rebecca E; van der Staay, Franz Josef

2015-03-01

Low birth weight (LBW) in humans is a risk factor for later cognitive, behavioural and emotional problems. In pigs, LBW is associated with higher mortality, but little is known about consequences for surviving piglets. Alteration in hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis function in LBW pigs suggests altered emotionality, but no behavioural indicators have been studied. Decision-making under uncertain conditions, e.g., risk or ambiguity, is susceptible to emotional influences and may provide a means of assessing long-term effects of LBW in piglets. We tested LBW (N = 8) and normal-birth-weight (NBW; N = 8) male pigs in two decision-making tasks. For decision-making under risk, we developed a simple two-choice probabilistic task, the Pig Gambling Task (PGT), where an 'advantageous' option offered small but frequent rewards and a 'disadvantageous' option offered large but infrequent rewards. The advantageous option offered greater overall gain. For decision-making under ambiguity, we used a Judgement Bias Task (JBT) where pigs were trained to make an active response to 'positive' and 'negative' tone cues (signalling large and small rewards, respectively). Responses to ambiguous tone cues were rated as more or less optimistic. LBW pigs chose the advantageous option more often in later blocks of the PGT, and were scored as less optimistic in the JBT, than NBW pigs. Our findings demonstrate that LBW pigs have developed different behavioural strategies with respect to decision-making. We propose that this is guided by changes in emotionality in LBW piglets, and we provide behavioural evidence of increased negative affect in LBW piglets.

Risk of predation makes foragers less choosy about their food.

PubMed

Charalabidis, Alice; Dechaume-Moncharmont, François-Xavier; Petit, Sandrine; Bohan, David A

2017-01-01

Animals foraging in the wild have to balance speed of decision making and accuracy of assessment of a food item's quality. If resource quality is important for maximizing fitness, then the duration of decision making may be in conflict with other crucial and time consuming tasks, such as anti-predator behaviours or competition monitoring. Individuals facing the risk of predation and/or competition should adjust the duration of decision making and, as a consequence, their level of choosiness for resources. When exposed to predation, the forager could either maintain its level of choosiness for food items but accept a reduction in the amount of food items consumed or it could reduce its level of choosiness and accept all prey items encountered. Under competition risk, individuals are expected to reduce their level of choosiness as slow decision making exposes individuals to a higher risk of opportunity costs. To test these predictions, the level of choosiness of a seed-eating carabid beetle, Harpalus affinis, was examined under 4 different experimental conditions of risk: i) predation risk; ii) intraspecific competition; iii) interspecific competition; and, iv) control. All the risks were simulated using chemical cues from individual conspecifics or beetles of different species that are predatory or granivorous. Our results show that when foraging under the risk of predation, H. affinis individuals significantly reduce their level of choosiness for seeds. Reductions in level of choosiness for food items might serve as a sensible strategy to reduce both the total duration of a foraging task and the cognitive load of the food quality assessment. No significant differences were observed when individuals were exposed to competition cues. Competition, (i.e opportunity cost) may not be perceived as risk high enough to induce changes in the level of choosiness. Our results suggest that considering the amount of items consumed, alone, would be a misleading metric when assessing individual response to a risk of predation. Foraging studies should therefore also take in account the decision making process.

TYPES OF INTEGRATION IN RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT, AND WHY THEY ARE NEEDED

EPA Science Inventory

Risk-based decision making requires that the decision makers and stakeholders are informed of all risks that are potentially significant and relevant to the decision. The International Programme on Chemical Safety of the World Health Organization has developed a framework for int...

Promising Approaches From Behavioral Economics to Improve Patient Lung Cancer Screening Decisions.

PubMed

Barnes, Andrew J; Groskaufmanis, Lauren; Thomson, Norman B

2016-12-01

Lung cancer is a devastating disease, the deadliest form of cancer in the world and in the United States. As a consequence of CMS's determination to provide low-dose CT (LDCT) as a covered service for at-risk smokers, LDCT lung cancer screening is now a covered service for many at-risk patients that first requires counseling and shared clinical decision making, including discussions of the risks and benefits of LDCT screening. However, shared decision making fundamentally relies on the premise that with better information, patients will arrive at rational decisions that align with their preferences and values. Evidence from the field of behavioral economics offers many contrary viewpoints that take into account patient decision making biases and the role of the shared decision environment that can lead to flawed choices and that are particularly relevant to lung cancer screening and treatment. This article discusses some of the most relevant biases, and suggests incorporating such knowledge into screening and treatment guidelines and shared decision making best practices to increase the likelihood that such efforts will produce their desired objectives to improve survival and quality of life. Copyright © 2016 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Numeracy Predicts Risk of Pre-Hospital Decision Delay: a Retrospective Study of Acute Coronary Syndrome Survival.

PubMed

Petrova, Dafina; Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Catena, Andrés; Cokely, Edward; Heredia Carrasco, Ana; Arrebola Moreno, Antonio; Ramírez Hernández, José Antonio

2017-04-01

Many patients delay seeking medical attention during acute coronary syndromes (ACS), profoundly increasing their risk for death and major disability. Although research has identified several risk factors, efforts to improve patient decision making have generally been unsuccessful, prompting a call for more research into psychological factors. The purpose of this study is to estimate the relationship between ACS decision delay and numeracy, a factor closely related to general decision making skill and risk literacy. About 5 days after experiencing ACS, 102 survivors (mean age = 58, 32-74) completed a questionnaire including measures of numeracy, decision delay, and other relevant factors (e.g., anxiety, depression, symptom severity, knowledge, demographics). Low patient numeracy was related to longer decision delay, OR = 0.64 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.44, 0.92], which was in turn related to higher odds of positive troponin on arrival at the hospital, OR = 1.37 [95 % CI 1.01, 2.01]. Independent of the influence of all other assessed factors, a patient with high (vs. low) numeracy was about four times more likely to seek medical attention within the critical first hour after symptom onset (i.e., OR high-low  = 3.84 [1.127, 11.65]). Numeracy may be one of the largest decision delay risk factors identified to date. Results accord with theories emphasizing potentially pivotal roles of patient deliberation, denial, and outcome understanding during decision making. Findings suggest that brief numeracy assessments may predict which patients are at greater risk for life-threatening decision delay and may also facilitate the design of risk communications that are appropriate for diverse patients who vary in risk literacy.

Making sense of perceptions of risk of diseases and vaccinations: a qualitative study combining models of health beliefs, decision-making and risk perception

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Maintaining high levels of childhood vaccinations is important for public health. Success requires better understanding of parents' perceptions of diseases and consequent decisions about vaccinations, however few studies have considered this from the theoretical perspectives of risk perception and decision-making under uncertainty. The aim of this study was to examine the utility of subjective risk perception and decision-making theories to provide a better understanding of the differences between immunisers' and non-immunisers' health beliefs and behaviours. Methods In a qualitative study we conducted semi-structured in-depth interviews with 45 Australian parents exploring their experiences and perceptions of disease severity and susceptibility. Using scenarios about 'a new strain of flu' we explored how risk information was interpreted. Results We found that concepts of dread, unfamiliarity, and uncontrollability from the subjective perception of risk and ambiguity, optimistic control and omission bias from explanatory theories of decision-making under uncertainty were useful in understanding why immunisers, incomplete immunisers and non-immunisers interpreted severity and susceptibility to diseases and vaccine risk differently. Immunisers dreaded unfamiliar diseases whilst non-immunisers dreaded unknown, long term side effects of vaccines. Participants believed that the risks of diseases and complications from diseases are not equally spread throughout the community, therefore, when listening to reports of epidemics, it is not the number of people who are affected but the familiarity or unfamiliarity of the disease and the characteristics of those who have had the disease that prompts them to take preventive action. Almost all believed they themselves would not be at serious risk of the 'new strain of flu' but were less willing to take risks with their children's health. Conclusion This study has found that health messages about the risks of disease which are communicated as though there is equality of risk in the population may be unproductive as these messages are perceived as unbelievable or irrelevant. The findings from this study have implications beyond the issue of childhood vaccinations as we grapple with communicating risks of new epidemics, and indeed may usefully contribute to the current debate especially in the UK of how these theories of risk and decision-making can be used to 'nudge' other health behaviours. PMID:22182354

Making sense of perceptions of risk of diseases and vaccinations: a qualitative study combining models of health beliefs, decision-making and risk perception.

PubMed

Bond, Lyndal; Nolan, Terry

2011-12-20

Maintaining high levels of childhood vaccinations is important for public health. Success requires better understanding of parents' perceptions of diseases and consequent decisions about vaccinations, however few studies have considered this from the theoretical perspectives of risk perception and decision-making under uncertainty. The aim of this study was to examine the utility of subjective risk perception and decision-making theories to provide a better understanding of the differences between immunisers' and non-immunisers' health beliefs and behaviours. In a qualitative study we conducted semi-structured in-depth interviews with 45 Australian parents exploring their experiences and perceptions of disease severity and susceptibility. Using scenarios about 'a new strain of flu' we explored how risk information was interpreted. We found that concepts of dread, unfamiliarity, and uncontrollability from the subjective perception of risk and ambiguity, optimistic control and omission bias from explanatory theories of decision-making under uncertainty were useful in understanding why immunisers, incomplete immunisers and non-immunisers interpreted severity and susceptibility to diseases and vaccine risk differently. Immunisers dreaded unfamiliar diseases whilst non-immunisers dreaded unknown, long term side effects of vaccines. Participants believed that the risks of diseases and complications from diseases are not equally spread throughout the community, therefore, when listening to reports of epidemics, it is not the number of people who are affected but the familiarity or unfamiliarity of the disease and the characteristics of those who have had the disease that prompts them to take preventive action. Almost all believed they themselves would not be at serious risk of the 'new strain of flu' but were less willing to take risks with their children's health. This study has found that health messages about the risks of disease which are communicated as though there is equality of risk in the population may be unproductive as these messages are perceived as unbelievable or irrelevant. The findings from this study have implications beyond the issue of childhood vaccinations as we grapple with communicating risks of new epidemics, and indeed may usefully contribute to the current debate especially in the UK of how these theories of risk and decision-making can be used to 'nudge' other health behaviours.

Determinants of propranolol’s selective effect on loss aversion

PubMed Central

Sokol-Hessner, Peter; Lackovic, Sandra F.; Tobe, Russell H.; Camerer, Colin F.; Leventhal, Bennett L.; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

2015-01-01

Research on emotion and decision-making has suggested that arousal mediates risky decisions (e.g., Bechara et al., 1997), but several distinct and often confounded processes drive such choices. Here, we used econometric modeling to separate and quantify the unique contributions of loss aversion, risk sensitivity and choice consistency to risky decision-making. We administered the beta-blocker propranolol in a double-blind, placebo-controlled within-subjects study, targeting the neurohormonal basis of physiological arousal. Matching our intervention’s pharmacological specificity with a quantitative model delineating decision-making components allowed us to identify the causal relationships between arousal and decision-making that do and do not exist. Propranolol selectively reduced loss aversion in a baseline- and dose-dependent manner (i.e. as a function of initial loss aversion and body-mass index), and did not affect risk sensitivity or choice consistency. These findings provide evidence for a specific, modulatory, and causal relationship between precise components of both emotion and risky decision-making. PMID:26063441

Diurnal Cortisol Rhythm Is Associated With Increased Risky Decision Making in Older Adults

PubMed Central

Weller, Joshua A.; Buchanan, Tony W.; Shackleford, Crystal; Morganstern, Arielle; Hartman, Joshua J.; Yuska, Jonathan; Denburg, Natalie L.

2014-01-01

Although past research has suggested a link between chronic stress and both physical and mental well-being in older adults, less is known about the degree to which neuroendocrine markers of stress are associated with higher-order cognitive processes such as decision-making. In a sample of healthy older adults (55–85 years), we tested the degree to which variation in the diurnal cortisol rhythm, an index of hypothalamic-adrenal-pituitary axis dynamics, was related to differences in risky decision making. We found that diurnal cortisol fall predicted performance on the Cups Task, a risky decision making task that independently tests risk taking to achieve gains and risk taking to avoid losses. For potential gains, we found that greater risk-taking was associated with lower diurnal cortisol fall, independent of age or sex of the participant. For risks to avoid potential losses, we found that lower diurnal fall selectively was associated with suboptimal decision-making for men only. Compared to males with more typical diurnal fall, those who displayed lower diurnal fall made more risky choices and demonstrated lower sensitivity to the expected value of the risky choice. We integrate these results with the extant literature on the effects of stress on cognitive aging. PMID:24955995

Subthalamic Neural Activity Patterns Anticipate Economic Risk Decisions in Gambling

PubMed Central

Rosa, M.; Carpaneto, J.; Priori, A.

2018-01-01

Abstract Economic decision-making is disrupted in individuals with gambling disorder, an addictive behavior observed in Parkinson’s disease (PD) patients receiving dopaminergic therapy. The subthalamic nucleus (STN) is involved in the inhibition of impulsive behaviors; however, its role in impulse control disorders and addiction is still unclear. Here, we recorded STN local field potentials (LFPs) in PD patients with and without gambling disorder during an economic decision-making task. Reaction times analysis showed that for all patients, the decision whether to risk preceded task onset. We compared then for both groups the STN LFP preceding high- and low-risk economic decisions. We found that risk avoidance in gamblers correlated with larger STN LFP low-frequency (<12-Hz) fluctuations preceding task onset. In particular, the amplitude of low-frequency LFP fluctuations carried significant information about future decisions. Decisions of patients not affected by gambling disorder were instead not correlated with pretask STN LFP. Our results suggest that STN activity preceding task onset affects risk decisions by preemptively inhibiting attraction to high but unlikely rewards in favor of a long-term payoff. PMID:29445770

A decision support framework for characterizing and managing dermal exposures to chemicals during Emergency Management and Operations.

PubMed

Dotson, G Scott; Hudson, Naomi L; Maier, Andrew

2015-01-01

Emergency Management and Operations (EMO) personnel are in need of resources and tools to assist in understanding the health risks associated with dermal exposures during chemical incidents. This article reviews available resources and presents a conceptual framework for a decision support system (DSS) that assists in characterizing and managing risk during chemical emergencies involving dermal exposures. The framework merges principles of three decision-making techniques: 1) scenario planning, 2) risk analysis, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). This DSS facilitates dynamic decision making during each of the distinct life cycle phases of an emergency incident (ie, preparedness, response, or recovery) and identifies EMO needs. A checklist tool provides key questions intended to guide users through the complexities of conducting a dermal risk assessment. The questions define the scope of the framework for resource identification and application to support decision-making needs. The framework consists of three primary modules: 1) resource compilation, 2) prioritization, and 3) decision. The modules systematically identify, organize, and rank relevant information resources relating to the hazards of dermal exposures to chemicals and risk management strategies. Each module is subdivided into critical elements designed to further delineate the resources based on relevant incident phase and type of information. The DSS framework provides a much needed structure based on contemporary decision analysis principles for 1) documenting key questions for EMO problem formulation and 2) a method for systematically organizing, screening, and prioritizing information resources on dermal hazards, exposures, risk characterization, and management.

A decision support framework for characterizing and managing dermal exposures to chemicals during Emergency Management and Operations

PubMed Central

Dotson, G. Scott; Hudson, Naomi L.; Maier, Andrew

2016-01-01

Emergency Management and Operations (EMO) personnel are in need of resources and tools to assist in understanding the health risks associated with dermal exposures during chemical incidents. This article reviews available resources and presents a conceptual framework for a decision support system (DSS) that assists in characterizing and managing risk during chemical emergencies involving dermal exposures. The framework merges principles of three decision-making techniques: 1) scenario planning, 2) risk analysis, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). This DSS facilitates dynamic decision making during each of the distinct life cycle phases of an emergency incident (ie, preparedness, response, or recovery) and identifies EMO needs. A checklist tool provides key questions intended to guide users through the complexities of conducting a dermal risk assessment. The questions define the scope of the framework for resource identification and application to support decision-making needs. The framework consists of three primary modules: 1) resource compilation, 2) prioritization, and 3) decision. The modules systematically identify, organize, and rank relevant information resources relating to the hazards of dermal exposures to chemicals and risk management strategies. Each module is subdivided into critical elements designed to further delineate the resources based on relevant incident phase and type of information. The DSS framework provides a much needed structure based on contemporary decision analysis principles for 1) documenting key questions for EMO problem formulation and 2) a method for systematically organizing, screening, and prioritizing information resources on dermal hazards, exposures, risk characterization, and management. PMID:26312660

Decision making.

PubMed

Chambers, David W

2011-01-01

A decision is a commitment of resources under conditions of risk in expectation of the best future outcome. The smart decision is always the strategy with the best overall expected value-the best combination of facts and values. Some of the special circumstances involved in decision making are discussed, including decisions where there are multiple goals, those where more than one person is involved in making the decision, using trigger points, framing decisions correctly, commitments to lost causes, and expert decision makers. A complex example of deciding about removal of asymptomatic third molars, with and without an EBD search, is discussed.

Interventionist and participatory approaches to flood risk mitigation decisions: two case studies in the Italian Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bianchizza, C.; Del Bianco, D.; Pellizzoni, L.; Scolobig, A.

2012-04-01

Flood risk mitigation decisions pose key challenges not only from a technical but also from a social, economic and political viewpoint. There is an increasing demand for improving the quality of these processes by including different stakeholders - and especially by involving the local residents in the decision making process - and by guaranteeing the actual improvement of local social capacities during and after the decision making. In this paper we analyse two case studies of flood risk mitigation decisions, Malborghetto-Valbruna and Vipiteno-Sterzing, in the Italian Alps. In both of them, mitigation works have been completed or planned, yet following completely different approaches especially in terms of responses of residents and involvement of local authorities. In Malborghetto-Valbruna an 'interventionist' approach (i.e. leaning towards a top down/technocratic decision process) was used to make decisions after the flood event that affected the municipality in the year 2003. In Vipiteno-Sterzing, a 'participatory' approach (i.e. leaning towards a bottom-up/inclusive decision process) was applied: decisions about risk mitigation measures were made by submitting different projects to the local citizens and by involving them in the decision making process. The analysis of the two case studies presented in the paper is grounded on the results of two research projects. Structured and in-depth interviews, as well as questionnaire surveys were used to explore residents' and local authorities' orientations toward flood risk mitigation. Also a SWOT analysis (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) involving key stakeholders was used to better understand the characteristics of the communities and their perception of flood risk mitigation issues. The results highlight some key differences between interventionist and participatory approaches, together with some implications of their adoption in the local context. Strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches, as well as key challenges for the future are also discussed.

Policy-Led Comparative Environmental Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Crops: Testing for Increased Risk Rather Than Profiling Phenotypes Leads to Predictable and Transparent Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Raybould, Alan; Macdonald, Phil

2018-01-01

We describe two contrasting methods of comparative environmental risk assessment for genetically modified (GM) crops. Both are science-based, in the sense that they use science to help make decisions, but they differ in the relationship between science and policy. Policy-led comparative risk assessment begins by defining what would be regarded as unacceptable changes when the use a particular GM crop replaces an accepted use of another crop. Hypotheses that these changes will not occur are tested using existing or new data, and corroboration or falsification of the hypotheses is used to inform decision-making. Science-led comparative risk assessment, on the other hand, tends to test null hypotheses of no difference between a GM crop and a comparator. The variables that are compared may have little or no relevance to any previously stated policy objective and hence decision-making tends to be ad hoc in response to possibly spurious statistical significance. We argue that policy-led comparative risk assessment is the far more effective method. With this in mind, we caution that phenotypic profiling of GM crops, particularly with omics methods, is potentially detrimental to risk assessment. PMID:29755975

Neural activation during risky decision-making in youth at high risk for substance use disorders.

PubMed

Hulvershorn, Leslie A; Hummer, Tom A; Fukunaga, Rena; Leibenluft, Ellen; Finn, Peter; Cyders, Melissa A; Anand, Amit; Overhage, Lauren; Dir, Allyson; Brown, Joshua

2015-08-30

Risky decision-making, particularly in the context of reward-seeking behavior, is strongly associated with the presence of substance use disorders (SUDs). However, there has been little research on the neural substrates underlying reward-related decision-making in drug-naïve youth who are at elevated risk for SUDs. Participants comprised 23 high-risk (HR) youth with a well-established SUD risk phenotype and 27 low-risk healthy comparison (HC) youth, aged 10-14. Participants completed the balloon analog risk task (BART), a task designed to examine risky decision-making, during functional magnetic resonance imaging. The HR group had faster reaction times, but otherwise showed no behavioral differences from the HC group. HR youth experienced greater activation when processing outcome, as the chances of balloon explosion increased, relative to HC youth, in ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC). As explosion probability increased, group-by-condition interactions in the ventral striatum/anterior cingulate and the anterior insula showed increasing activation in HR youth, specifically on trials when explosions occurred. Thus, atypical activation increased with increasing risk of negative outcome (i.e., balloon explosion) in a cortico-striatal network in the HR group. These findings identify candidate neurobiological markers of addiction risk in youth at high familial and phenotypic risk for SUDs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Betting on DBS: Effects of subthalamic nucleus deep brain stimulation on risk taking and decision making in patients with Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Brandt, Jason; Rogerson, Mark; Al-Joudi, Haya; Reckess, Gila; Shpritz, Barnett; Umeh, Chizoba C; Aljehani, Noha; Mills, Kelly; Mari, Zoltan

2015-07-01

Concerns persist that deep brain stimulation (DBS) for Parkinson's disease (PD) increases impulsivity or induces excessive reward seeking. We report here the performance of PD patients with implanted subthalamic nucleus electrodes, with stimulation on and off, on 3 laboratory tasks of risk taking and decision making. They are compared with PD patients maintained on medication and healthy participants. In the Game of Dice Task, a test of "risky" decision making, PD patients with or without DBS made highest risk bets more often and ended up with less money than did healthy participants. There was a trend for DBS stimulation to ameliorate this effect. Deal or No-Deal is an "ambiguous" decision-making task that assessed preference for risk (holding on to one's briefcase) over a "sure thing" (accepting the banker's offer). Here, DBS patients were more conservative with stimulation on than with it off. They accepted smaller offers from the banker and won less money in the DBS-on condition. Overall, the 2 PD groups won less money than did healthy participants. The Framing Paradigm assessed willingness to gamble on a fixed (unambiguous) prize depending on whether the reward was "framed" as a loss or a gain. Nonsurgical PD patients tended to be more risk-averse than were healthy participants, whereas DBS patients were more willing to gamble for gains as well as losses both on and off stimulation. On risky decision-making tasks, DBS patients took more risks than did healthy participants, but stimulation may temper this tendency. In contrast, in an ambiguous-risk situation, DBS patients were more risk-averse (conservative) than were healthy participants, and this tendency was greatest with stimulation. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Making a Good Group Decision (Low Risk) in Singapore Under an Environment That Has Time and Cost Constraints

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

decision-making framework to eliminate bias and promote effective communication. Using a collaborative approach built on systems engineering and...framework to eliminate bias and promote effective communication. Using a collaborative approach built on systems engineering and decision-making...Organization .......................................................................................61 2. Bias

Modulation of risk/reward decision making by dopaminergic transmission within the basolateral amygdala.

PubMed

Larkin, Joshua D; Jenni, Nicole L; Floresco, Stan B

2016-01-01

Dopamine (DA) transmission within cortico-limbic-striatal circuitry is integral in modulating decisions involving reward uncertainty. The basolateral amygdala (BLA) also plays a role in these processes, yet how DA transmission within this nucleus regulates cost/benefit decision making is unknown. We investigated the contribution of DA transmission within the BLA to risk/reward decision making assessed with a probabilistic discounting task. Rats were well-trained to choose between a small/certain reward and a large/risky reward, with the probability of obtaining the larger reward decreasing (100-12.5 %) or increasing (12.5-100 %) over a session. We examined the effects of antagonizing BLA D1 (SCH 23390, 0.1-1 μg) or D2 (eticlopride, 0.1-1 μg) receptors, as well as intra-BLA infusions of agonists for D1 (SKF 81297, 0.1-1 μg) and D2 (quinpirole, 1-10 μg) receptors. We also assessed how DA receptor stimulation may induce differential effects related to baseline levels of risky choice. BLA D1 receptor antagonism reduced risky choice by decreasing reward sensitivity, whereas D2 antagonism did not affect overall choice patterns. Stimulation of BLA D1 receptors optimized decision making in a baseline-dependent manner: in risk-averse rats, infusions of a lower dose of SKF81297 increased risky choice when reward probabilities were high (50 %), whereas in risk-prone rats, this drug reduced risky choice when probabilities were low (12.5 %). Quinpirole reduced risky choice in risk-prone rats, enhancing lose-shift behavior. These data highlight previously uncharacterized roles for BLA DA D1 and D2 receptors in biasing choice during risk/reward decision making through mediation of reward/negative feedback sensitivity.

Criminal decision making: the development of adolescent judgment, criminal responsibility, and culpability.

PubMed

Fried, C S; Reppucci, N D

2001-02-01

Theories of judgment in decision making hypothesize that throughout adolescence, judgment is impaired because the development of several psychosocial factors that are presumed to influence decision making lags behind the development of the cognitive capacities that are required to make mature decisions. This study uses an innovative video technique to examine the role of several psychosocial factors--temporal perspective, peer influence, and risk perception--in adolescent criminal decision making. Results based on data collected from 56 adolescents between the ages of 13 and 18 years revealed that detained youth were more likely to think of future-oriented consequences of engaging in the depicted delinquent act and less likely to anticipate pressure from their friends than nondetained youth. Examination of the developmental functions of the psychosocial factors indicates age-based differences on standardized measures of temporal perspective and resistance to peer influence and on measures of the role of risk perception in criminal decision making. Assessments of criminal responsibility and culpability were predicted by age and ethnicity. Implications for punishment in the juvenile justice system are discussed.

Stereotype threat affects financial decision making.

PubMed

Carr, Priyanka B; Steele, Claude M

2010-10-01

The research presented in this article provides the first evidence that one's decision making can be influenced by concerns about stereotypes and the devaluation of one's identity. Many studies document gender differences in decision making, and often attribute these differences to innate and stable factors, such as biological and hormonal differences. In three studies, we found that stereotype threat affected decision making and led to gender differences in loss-aversion and risk-aversion behaviors. In Study 1, women subjected to stereotype threat in academic and business settings were more loss averse than both men and women who were not facing the threat of being viewed in light of negative stereotypes. We found no gender differences in loss-aversion behavior in the absence of stereotype threat. In Studies 2a and 2b, we found the same pattern of effects for risk-aversion behavior that we had observed for loss-aversion behavior. In addition, in Study 2b, ego depletion mediated the effects of stereotype threat on women's decision making. These results suggest that individuals' decision making can be influenced by stereotype concerns.

Control, Contingency and Delegation in Decision-Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Michael, Stephen R.

1979-01-01

Proposes a model which emphasizes the delegation of decision-making authority and managerial control of operations. Suggests that risks can be reduced by using (1) a contingency approach to delegation, (2) decision rules for consistency, (3) decision models for specific situations, (4) vital indicator reports, (5) management by objectives, and (6)…

Poverty and Economic Decision-Making: Evidence from Changes in Financial Resources at Payday

PubMed Central

Carvalho, Leandro S.; Meier, Stephan; Wang, Stephanie W.

2016-01-01

We study the effect of financial resources on decision-making. Low-income U.S. households are randomly assigned to receive an online survey before or after payday. The survey collects measures of cognitive function and administers risk and intertemporal choice tasks. The study design generates variation in cash, checking and savings balances, and expenditures. Before-payday participants behave as if they are more present-biased when making intertemporal choices about monetary rewards but not when making intertemporal choices about non-monetary real-effort tasks. Nor do we find before-after differences in risk-taking, the quality of decision-making, the performance in cognitive function tasks, or in heuristic judgments. PMID:28003681

Age-related variance in decisions under ambiguity is explained by changes in reasoning, executive functions, and decision-making under risk.

PubMed

Schiebener, Johannes; Brand, Matthias

2017-06-01

Previous literature has explained older individuals' disadvantageous decision-making under ambiguity in the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) by reduced emotional warning signals preceding decisions. We argue that age-related reductions in IGT performance may also be explained by reductions in certain cognitive abilities (reasoning, executive functions). In 210 participants (18-86 years), we found that the age-related variance on IGT performance occurred only in the last 60 trials. The effect was mediated by cognitive abilities and their relation with decision-making performance under risk with explicit rules (Game of Dice Task). Thus, reductions in cognitive functions in older age may be associated with both a reduced ability to gain explicit insight into the rules of the ambiguous decision situation and with failure to choose the less risky options consequently after the rules have been understood explicitly. Previous literature may have underestimated the relevance of cognitive functions for age-related decline in decision-making performance under ambiguity.

"It Was the Best Decision of My Life": a thematic content analysis of former medical tourists' patient testimonials.

PubMed

Hohm, Carly; Snyder, Jeremy

2015-01-22

Medical tourism is international travel with the intention of receiving medical care. Medical tourists travel for many reasons, including cost savings, limited domestic access to specific treatments, and interest in accessing unproven interventions. Medical tourism poses new health and safety risks to patients, including dangers associated with travel following surgery, difficulty assessing the quality of care abroad, and complications in continuity of care. Online resources are important to the decision-making of potential medical tourists and the websites of medical tourism facilitation companies (companies that may or may not be affiliated with a clinic abroad and help patients plan their travel) are an important source of online information for these individuals. These websites fail to address the risks associated with medical tourism, which can undermine the informed decision-making of potential medical tourists. Less is known about patient testimonials on these websites, which can be a particularly powerful influence on decision-making. A thematic content analysis was conducted of patient testimonials hosted on the YouTube channels of four medical tourism facilitation companies. Five videos per company were viewed. The content of these videos was analyzed and themes identified and counted for each video. Ten main themes were identified. These themes were then grouped into three main categories: facilitator characteristics (e.g., mentions of the facilitator by name, reference to the price of the treatment or to cost savings); service characteristics (e.g., the quality and availability of the surgeon, the quality and friendliness of the support staff); and referrals (e.g., referrals to other potential medical tourists). These testimonials were found either not to mention risks associated with medical tourism or to claim that these risks can be effectively managed through the use of the facilitation company. The failure fully to address the risks of medical tourism can undermine the informed decision-making of potential medical tourists, particularly given the considerable influence on decision-making by patient testimonials. Regulation of these global companies is difficult, making the development of testimonials highlighting the risks of medical tourism essential. Additional research is needed on the impact of patient testimonial videos on the decision-making of potential medical tourists.

Women's decision-making processes and the influences on their mode of birth following a previous caesarean section in Taiwan: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Chen, Shu-Wen; Hutchinson, Alison M; Nagle, Cate; Bucknall, Tracey K

2018-01-17

Vaginal birth after caesarean (VBAC) is an alternative option for women who have had a previous caesarean section (CS); however, uptake is limited because of concern about the risks of uterine rupture. The aim of this study was to explore women's decision-making processes and the influences on their mode of birth following a previous CS. A qualitative approach was used. The research comprised three stages. Stage I consisted of naturalistic observation at 33-34 weeks' gestation. Stage II involved interviews with pregnant women at 35-37 weeks' gestation. Stage III consisted of interviews with the same women who were interviewed postnatally, 1 month after birth. The research was conducted in a private medical centre in northern Taiwan. Using a purposive sampling, 21 women and 9 obstetricians were recruited. Data collection involved in-depth interviews, observation and field notes. Constant comparative analysis was employed for data analysis. Ensuring the safety of mother and baby was the focus of women's decisions. Women's decisions-making influences included previous birth experience, concern about the risks of vaginal birth, evaluation of mode of birth, current pregnancy situation, information resources and health insurance. In communicating with obstetricians, some women complied with obstetricians' recommendations for repeat caesarean section (RCS) without being informed of alternatives. Others used four step decision-making processes that included searching for information, listening to obstetricians' professional judgement, evaluating alternatives, and making a decision regarding mode of birth. After birth, women reflected on their decisions in three aspects: reflection on birth choices; reflection on factors influencing decisions; and reflection on outcomes of decisions. The health and wellbeing of mother and baby were the major concerns for women. In response to the decision-making influences, women's interactions with obstetricians regarding birth choices varied from passive decision-making to shared decision-making. All women have the right to be informed of alternative birthing options. Routine provision of explanations by obstetricians regarding risks associated with alternative birth options, in addition to financial coverage for RCS from National Health Insurance, would assist women's decision-making. Establishment of a website to provide women with reliable information about birthing options may also assist women's decision-making.

Sleep duration moderates the association between insula activation and risky decisions under stress in adolescents and adults.

PubMed

Uy, Jessica Phuong; Galván, Adriana

2017-01-27

Insufficient sleep has been associated with increased risk-taking and poor decision-making, enhanced physiological responses to stress, and attenuated anterior insula (AI) activity to risk. The AI has also been linked to risky decision-making under acute stress. However, it is yet unknown how naturalistic sleep habits affect risky decision-making and AI activity when individuals feel stressed. In the current study, a daily diary approach was used to document participants' daily stress. Adolescents and adults reported their recent sleep duration and completed two fMRI visits during which they performed a risky decision-making task: once each when they endorsed a high and low level of stress. Results revealed that, regardless of age, individuals who reported receiving more sleep took fewer non-advantageous risks during high stress relative to those who reported receiving fewer hours of sleep per night while sleep duration was not associated with risky behavior under low stress. Among individuals who reported less sleep, those who exhibited reduced AI activation during risk-taking under high stress also took more disadvantageous risks whereas this effect was attenuated for those who reported longer sleep duration. Moreover, longer sleep duration was associated with greater functional coupling between the AI and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) under high stress whereas sleep duration was not associated with AI-DLPFC functional coupling under low stress. These findings suggest that naturalistic sleep duration may amplify the effects of daily stress and alter risky decision-making behavior through interactions with the AI. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

PubMed

Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

2016-03-01

Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GPs' decision-making when prescribing medicines for breastfeeding women: Content analysis of a survey.

PubMed

Jayawickrama, Hiranya S; Amir, Lisa H; Pirotta, Marie V

2010-03-23

Many breastfeeding women seek medical care from general practitioners (GPs) for various health problems and GPs may consider prescribing medicines in these consultations. Prescribing medicines to a breastfeeding mother may lead to untimely cessation of breastfeeding or a breastfeeding mother may be denied medicines due to the possible risk to her infant, both of which may lead to unwanted consequences. Information on factors governing GPs' decision-making and their views in such situations is limited. GPs providing shared maternity care at the Royal Women's Hospital, Melbourne were surveyed using an anonymous postal survey to determine their knowledge, attitudes and practices on medicines and breastfeeding, in 2007/2008 (n = 640). Content analysis of their response to a question concerning decision-making about the use of medicine for a breastfeeding woman was conducted. A thematic network was constructed with basic, organising and global themes. 335 (52%) GPs responded to the survey, and 253 (76%) provided information on the last time they had to decide about the use of medicine for a breastfeeding woman. Conditions reported were mastitis (24%), other infections (24%) and depressive disorders (21%). The global theme that emerged was "complexity of managing risk in prescribing for breastfeeding women". The organising themes were: certainty around decision-making; uncertainty around decision-making; need for drug information to be available, consistent and reliable; joint decision-making; the vulnerable "third party" and infant feeding decision. Decision-making is a spectrum from a straight forward decision, such as treatment of mastitis, to a complicated one requiring multiple inputs and consideration. GPs use more information seeking and collaboration in decision-making when they perceive the problem to be more complex, for example, in postnatal depression. GPs feel that prescribing medicines for breastfeeding women is a contentious issue. They manage the risk of prescribing by gathering information and assessing the possible effects on the breastfed infant. Without evidence-based information, they sometimes recommend cessation of breastfeeding unnecessarily.

Pilot Decision-Making Training

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-05-01

Pilot Decisional Attitude Questionnaire (PDAQ). 2. Aeronautical Decision Making . a. The pilot judgment problem b. Relationship of judgment to training...lmEr OAT . REPOR TYPE ANO GATES COVEIRO May 1990 Final - June 1985 - December 1988 4 .MU AN m . .m m t 4i C ’u. SUM L FUNING MUMBRS Pilot Decision - Making ...13 AGSTRACT (Maxu’m 200 wo f -The effectiveness of a simulator-based approach to training pilot skills in risk assessment and decision making was

Computerized Decision Aids for Shared Decision Making in Serious Illness: Systematic Review.

PubMed

Staszewska, Anna; Zaki, Pearl; Lee, Joon

2017-10-06

Shared decision making (SDM) is important in achieving patient-centered care. SDM tools such as decision aids are intended to inform the patient. When used to assist in decision making between treatments, decision aids have been shown to reduce decisional conflict, increase ease of decision making, and increase modification of previous decisions. The purpose of this systematic review is to assess the impact of computerized decision aids on patient-centered outcomes related to SDM for seriously ill patients. PubMed and Scopus databases were searched to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that assessed the impact of computerized decision aids on patient-centered outcomes and SDM in serious illness. Six RCTs were identified and data were extracted on study population, design, and results. Risk of bias was assessed by a modified Cochrane Risk of Bias Tool for Quality Assessment of Randomized Controlled Trials. Six RCTs tested decision tools in varying serious illnesses. Three studies compared different computerized decision aids against each other and a control. All but one study demonstrated improvement in at least one patient-centered outcome. Computerized decision tools may reduce unnecessary treatment in patients with low disease severity in comparison with informational pamphlets. Additionally, electronic health record (EHR) portals may provide the opportunity to manage care from the home for individuals affected by illness. The quality of decision aids is of great importance. Furthermore, satisfaction with the use of tools is associated with increased patient satisfaction and reduced decisional conflict. Finally, patients may benefit from computerized decision tools without the need for increased physician involvement. Most computerized decision aids improved at least one patient-centered outcome. All RCTs identified were at a High Risk of Bias or Unclear Risk of Bias. Effort should be made to improve the quality of RCTs testing SDM aids in serious illness. ©Anna Staszewska, Pearl Zaki, Joon Lee. Originally published in JMIR Medical Informatics (http://medinform.jmir.org), 06.10.2017.

Dynamic decision making for dam-break emergency management - Part 1: Theoretical framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, M.; Zhang, L. M.

2013-02-01

An evacuation decision for dam breaks is a very serious issue. A late decision may lead to loss of lives and properties, but a very early evacuation will incur unnecessary expenses. This paper presents a risk-based framework of dynamic decision making for dam-break emergency management (DYDEM). The dam-break emergency management in both time scale and space scale is introduced first to define the dynamic decision problem. The probability of dam failure is taken as a stochastic process and estimated using a time-series analysis method. The flood consequences are taken as functions of warning time and evaluated with a human risk analysis model (HURAM) based on Bayesian networks. A decision criterion is suggested to decide whether to evacuate the population at risk (PAR) or to delay the decision. The optimum time for evacuating the PAR is obtained by minimizing the expected total loss, which integrates the time-related probabilities and flood consequences. When a delayed decision is chosen, the decision making can be updated with available new information. A specific dam-break case study is presented in a companion paper to illustrate the application of this framework to complex dam-breaching problems.

The Role of Psychological and Physiological Factors in Decision Making under Risk and in a Dilemma

PubMed Central

Fooken, Jonas; Schaffner, Markus

2016-01-01

Different methods to elicit risk attitudes of individuals often provide differing results despite a common theory. Reasons for such inconsistencies may be the different influence of underlying factors in risk-taking decisions. In order to evaluate this conjecture, a better understanding of underlying factors across methods and decision contexts is desirable. In this paper we study the difference in result of two different risk elicitation methods by linking estimates of risk attitudes to gender, age, and personality traits, which have been shown to be related. We also investigate the role of these factors during decision-making in a dilemma situation. For these two decision contexts we also investigate the decision-maker's physiological state during the decision, measured by heart rate variability (HRV), which we use as an indicator of emotional involvement. We found that the two elicitation methods provide different individual risk attitude measures which is partly reflected in a different gender effect between the methods. Personality traits explain only relatively little in terms of driving risk attitudes and the difference between methods. We also found that risk taking and the physiological state are related for one of the methods, suggesting that more emotionally involved individuals are more risk averse in the experiment. Finally, we found evidence that personality traits are connected to whether individuals made a decision in the dilemma situation, but risk attitudes and the physiological state were not indicative for the ability to decide in this decision context. PMID:26834591

Impairment in risk-sensitive decision-making in older suicide attempters with depression

PubMed Central

Clark, L; Dombrovski, AY; Siegle, GJ; Butters, MA; Shollenberger, CL; Sahakian, BJ; Szanto, K

2010-01-01

Suicidal behavior is a potentially lethal complication of late-life depression. In younger adults, suicide has been linked to abnormal decision-making ability. Given that there are substantial age-related decreases in decision-making ability, and that older adults experience environmental stressors that require effective decision-making, we reasoned that impaired decision-making may be particularly relevant to suicidal behavior in the elderly. We thus compared performance on a probabilistic decision-making task that does not involve working memory (“Cambridge Gamble Task”) in four groups of older adults: 1) individuals with major depression and a history of suicide attempt (n=25), 2) individuals with major depression with active suicidal ideation but no suicide attempt (n=13), 3) individuals with major depression without suicidality (n=35), and 4) non-depressed control subjects (n=22). There was a significant effect of group on quality of decision-making, whereby the suicide attempters exhibited poorer ability to choose the likely outcome, compared with the non-suicidal depressed and non-depressed comparison subjects. There were no group differences in betting behavior. The suicide attempters differed in several aspects of social problem-solving on a self-report scale. Quality of decision-making was negatively correlated with the score on the impulsive/careless problem-solving subscale. These data suggest that older suicide attempters have a deficit in risk-sensitive decision-making, extending observations in younger adults. More specifically, older suicide attempters seem to neglect outcome probability and make poor choices. These impairments may precipitate and perpetuate suicidal crisis in depressed elders. Identification of decision-making impairment in suicidal elders may help with designing effective interventions. PMID:21443349

Heuristic decision-making about research participation in children with cystic fibrosis.

PubMed

Christofides, Emily; Dobson, Jennifer A; Solomon, Melinda; Waters, Valerie; O'Doherty, Kieran C

2016-08-01

Traditional perspectives on informed consent assume that when faced with decisions about whether to participate in research, individuals behave according to principles of classical rationality, taking into account all available information to weigh risks and benefits to come to a decision that is optimal for them. However, theoretical and empirical research in psychology suggests that people may not make decisions in this way. Less is known about decision-making processes as they pertain to participating in biomedical research, particularly when the participants are children. We sought to better understand research decision processes especially in children who tend to participate extensively in research due to chronic illness. To learn more about children's decision-making in this context, we interviewed 19 young patients with cystic fibrosis (male n = 7; female n = 12) aged 8-18 years (M = 13 years) at a children's hospital in Canada between April and August 2013. We found that participants generally had a default approach to participation decisions, which they attributed to their parents' attitudes to research, experiences of having grown up participating in research, trusting the researchers, and wanting to help. Most of our participants made the decision to participate in research based on a heuristic with a baseline to say "yes", subject to change based on aspects of the research or particular preferences. In particular, concerns with the procedure, unwillingness to talk about cystic fibrosis, logistical challenges, and perceptions of risk all influenced the decision, as did the perceived importance or personal relevance of the research. Our study illustrates that rather than conducting risk/benefit analyses, participants tended to adopt a heuristic-like approach, consistent with decision theories that view heuristic decision-making as ecologically rational. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decision-making when data and inferences are not conclusive: risk-benefit and acceptable regret approach.

PubMed

Hozo, Iztok; Schell, Michael J; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2008-07-01

The absolute truth in research is unobtainable, as no evidence or research hypothesis is ever 100% conclusive. Therefore, all data and inferences can in principle be considered as "inconclusive." Scientific inference and decision-making need to take into account errors, which are unavoidable in the research enterprise. The errors can occur at the level of conclusions that aim to discern the truthfulness of research hypothesis based on the accuracy of research evidence and hypothesis, and decisions, the goal of which is to enable optimal decision-making under present and specific circumstances. To optimize the chance of both correct conclusions and correct decisions, the synthesis of all major statistical approaches to clinical research is needed. The integration of these approaches (frequentist, Bayesian, and decision-analytic) can be accomplished through formal risk:benefit (R:B) analysis. This chapter illustrates the rational choice of a research hypothesis using R:B analysis based on decision-theoretic expected utility theory framework and the concept of "acceptable regret" to calculate the threshold probability of the "truth" above which the benefit of accepting a research hypothesis outweighs its risks.

A mediation model to explain decision making under conditions of risk among adolescents: the role of fluid intelligence and probabilistic reasoning.

PubMed

Donati, Maria Anna; Panno, Angelo; Chiesi, Francesca; Primi, Caterina

2014-01-01

This study tested the mediating role of probabilistic reasoning ability in the relationship between fluid intelligence and advantageous decision making among adolescents in explicit situations of risk--that is, in contexts in which information on the choice options (gains, losses, and probabilities) were explicitly presented at the beginning of the task. Participants were 282 adolescents attending high school (77% males, mean age = 17.3 years). We first measured fluid intelligence and probabilistic reasoning ability. Then, to measure decision making under explicit conditions of risk, participants performed the Game of Dice Task, in which they have to decide among different alternatives that are explicitly linked to a specific amount of gain or loss and have obvious winning probabilities that are stable over time. Analyses showed a significant positive indirect effect of fluid intelligence on advantageous decision making through probabilistic reasoning ability that acted as a mediator. Specifically, fluid intelligence may enhance ability to reason in probabilistic terms, which in turn increases the likelihood of advantageous choices when adolescents are confronted with an explicit decisional context. Findings show that in experimental paradigm settings, adolescents are able to make advantageous decisions using cognitive abilities when faced with decisions under explicit risky conditions. This study suggests that interventions designed to promote probabilistic reasoning, for example by incrementing the mathematical prerequisites necessary to reason in probabilistic terms, may have a positive effect on adolescents' decision-making abilities.

Maternal psychological distress and child decision-making.

PubMed

Flouri, Eirini; Ioakeimidi, Sofia; Midouhas, Emily; Ploubidis, George B

2017-08-15

There is much research to suggest that maternal psychological distress is associated with many adverse outcomes in children. This study examined, for the first time, if it is related to children's affective decision-making. Using data from 12,080 families of the Millennium Cohort Study, we modelled the effect of trajectories of maternal psychological distress in early-to-middle childhood (3-11 years) on child affective decision-making, measured with a gambling task at age 11. Latent class analysis showed four longitudinal types of maternal psychological distress (chronically high, consistently low, moderate-accelerating and moderate-decelerating). Maternal distress typology predicted decision-making but only in girls. Specifically, compared to girls growing up in families with never-distressed mothers, those exposed to chronically high maternal psychological distress showed more risk-taking, bet more and exhibited poorer risk-adjustment, even after correction for confounding. Most of these effects on girls' decision-making were not robust to additional controls for concurrent internalising and externalising problems, but chronically high maternal psychological distress was associated positively with risk-taking even after this adjustment. Importantly, this association was similar for those who had reached puberty and those who had not. Given the study design, causality cannot be inferred. Therefore, we cannot propose that treating chronic maternal psychological distress will reduce decision-making pathology in young females. Our study suggests that young daughters of chronically distressed mothers tend to be particularly reckless decision-makers. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

ACTIVITIES TO DEVELOP AN INTERIM GUIDANCE FOR MICROARRAY-BASED ASSAYS FOR REGULATORY AND RISK ASSESSMENT APPLICATIONS AT EPA

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract for presentation. Advances in genomics will have significant implications for risk assessment policies and regulatory decision making. In 2002, EPA issued its lnterim Policy on Genomics which stated that such data may be considered in the decision making process, but tha...

Prolonged Effects of Acute Stress on Decision-Making under Risk: A Human Psychophysiological Study

PubMed Central

Yamakawa, Kaori; Ohira, Hideki; Matsunaga, Masahiro; Isowa, Tokiko

2016-01-01

This study investigates the prolonged effects of physiological responses induced by acute stress on risk-taking in decision-making. Participants were divided into a Stress group (N = 14) and a Control group (N = 12). The Trier Social Stress Test was administered as an acute stressor, and reading was administered as a control task; thereafter, participants performed a decision-making task in which they needed to choose a sure option or a gamble option in Gain and Loss frame trials 2 h after (non-) exposure to the stressor. Increased cortisol, adrenaline, heart rate (HR), and subjective stress levels validated acute stress manipulation. Stressed participants made fewer risky choices only in the Gain domain, whereas no effect of stress was shown in the Loss domain. Deceleration of HR reflecting attention was greater for Gains compared with Losses only in the Stress group. Risk avoidance was determined by increased levels of cortisol caused by acute stress. These results suggest that processes regarding glucocorticoid might be involved in the prolonged effects of acute stress on the evaluation of risks and the monitoring of outcomes in decision-making. PMID:27679566

Informed decision-making in elective major vascular surgery: analysis of 145 surgeon-patient consultations.

PubMed

Etchells, Edward; Ferrari, Michel; Kiss, Alex; Martyn, Nikki; Zinman, Deborah; Levinson, Wendy

2011-06-01

Prior studies show significant gaps in the informed decision-making process, a central goal of surgical care. These studies have been limited by their focus on low-risk decisions, single visits rather than entire consultations, or both. Our objectives were, first, to rate informed decision-making for major elective vascular surgery based on audiotapes of actual physician-patient conversations and, second, to compare ratings of informed decision-making for first visits to ratings for multiple visits by the same patient over time. We prospectively enrolled patients for whom vascular surgical treatment was a potential option at a tertiary care outpatient vascular surgery clinic. We audio-taped all surgeon-patient conversations, including multiple visits when necessary, until a decision was made. Using an existing method, we evaluated the transcripts for elements of decision-making, including basic elements (e.g., an explanation of the clinical condition), intermediate elements (e.g., risks and benefits) and complex elements (e.g., uncertainty around the decision). We analyzed 145 surgeon-patient consultations. Overall, 45% of consultations contained complex elements, whereas 23% did not contain the basic elements of decision-making. For the 67 consultations that involved multiple visits, ratings were significantly higher when evaluating all visits (50% complex elements) compared with evaluating only the first visit (33% complex elements, p < 0.001.) We found that 45% of consultations contained complex elements, which is higher than prior studies with similar methods. Analyzing decision-making over multiple visits yielded different results than analyzing decision-making for single visits.

Risk-taking and risky decision-making in Internet gaming disorder: Implications regarding online gaming in the setting of negative consequences.

PubMed

Dong, Guangheng; Potenza, Marc N

2016-02-01

Individuals with Internet gaming disorder (IGD) continue gaming despite adverse consequences. However, the precise mechanism underlying this behavior remains unknown. In this study, data from 20 IGD subjects and 16 otherwise comparable healthy control subjects (HCs) were recorded and compared when they were undergoing risk-taking and risky decision-making during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). During risk-taking and as compared to HCs, IGD subjects selected more risk-disadvantageous trials and demonstrated less activation of the anterior cingulate, posterior cingulate and middle temporal gyrus. During risky decision-making and as compared to HCs, IGD subjects showed shorter response times and less activations of the inferior frontal and superior temporal gyri. Taken together, data suggest that IGD subjects show impaired executive control in selecting risk-disadvantageous choices, and they make risky decisions more hastily and with less recruitment of regions implicated in impulse control. These results suggest a possible neurobiological underpinning for why IGD subjects may exhibit poor control over their game-seeking behaviors even when encountering negative consequences and provide possible therapeutic targets for interventions in this population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

To Fear Is to Gain? The Role of Fear Recognition in Risky Decision Making in TBI Patients and Healthy Controls

PubMed Central

Visser-Keizer, Annemarie C.; Westerhof-Evers, Herma J.; Gerritsen, Marleen J. J.; van der Naalt, Joukje; Spikman, Jacoba M.

2016-01-01

Fear is an important emotional reaction that guides decision making in situations of ambiguity or uncertainty. Both recognition of facial expressions of fear and decision making ability can be impaired after traumatic brain injury (TBI), in particular when the frontal lobe is damaged. So far, it has not been investigated how recognition of fear influences risk behavior in healthy subjects and TBI patients. The ability to recognize fear is thought to be related to the ability to experience fear and to use it as a warning signal to guide decision making. We hypothesized that a better ability to recognize fear would be related to a better regulation of risk behavior, with healthy controls outperforming TBI patients. To investigate this, 59 healthy subjects and 49 TBI patients were assessed with a test for emotion recognition (Facial Expression of Emotion: Stimuli and Tests) and a gambling task (Iowa Gambling Task (IGT)). The results showed that, regardless of post traumatic amnesia duration or the presence of frontal lesions, patients were more impaired than healthy controls on both fear recognition and decision making. In both groups, a significant relationship was found between better fear recognition, the development of an advantageous strategy across the IGT and less risk behavior in the last blocks of the IGT. Educational level moderated this relationship in the final block of the IGT. This study has important clinical implications, indicating that impaired decision making and risk behavior after TBI can be preceded by deficits in the processing of fear. PMID:27870900

To Fear Is to Gain? The Role of Fear Recognition in Risky Decision Making in TBI Patients and Healthy Controls.

PubMed

Visser-Keizer, Annemarie C; Westerhof-Evers, Herma J; Gerritsen, Marleen J J; van der Naalt, Joukje; Spikman, Jacoba M

2016-01-01

Fear is an important emotional reaction that guides decision making in situations of ambiguity or uncertainty. Both recognition of facial expressions of fear and decision making ability can be impaired after traumatic brain injury (TBI), in particular when the frontal lobe is damaged. So far, it has not been investigated how recognition of fear influences risk behavior in healthy subjects and TBI patients. The ability to recognize fear is thought to be related to the ability to experience fear and to use it as a warning signal to guide decision making. We hypothesized that a better ability to recognize fear would be related to a better regulation of risk behavior, with healthy controls outperforming TBI patients. To investigate this, 59 healthy subjects and 49 TBI patients were assessed with a test for emotion recognition (Facial Expression of Emotion: Stimuli and Tests) and a gambling task (Iowa Gambling Task (IGT)). The results showed that, regardless of post traumatic amnesia duration or the presence of frontal lesions, patients were more impaired than healthy controls on both fear recognition and decision making. In both groups, a significant relationship was found between better fear recognition, the development of an advantageous strategy across the IGT and less risk behavior in the last blocks of the IGT. Educational level moderated this relationship in the final block of the IGT. This study has important clinical implications, indicating that impaired decision making and risk behavior after TBI can be preceded by deficits in the processing of fear.

Monitoring supports performance in a dual-task paradigm involving a risky decision-making task and a working memory task

PubMed Central

Gathmann, Bettina; Schiebener, Johannes; Wolf, Oliver T.; Brand, Matthias

2015-01-01

Performing two cognitively demanding tasks at the same time is known to decrease performance. The current study investigates the underlying executive functions of a dual-tasking situation involving the simultaneous performance of decision making under explicit risk and a working memory task. It is suggested that making a decision and performing a working memory task at the same time should particularly require monitoring—an executive control process supervising behavior and the state of processing on two tasks. To test the role of a supervisory/monitoring function in such a dual-tasking situation we investigated 122 participants with the Game of Dice Task plus 2-back task (GDT plus 2-back task). This dual task requires participants to make decisions under risk and to perform a 2-back working memory task at the same time. Furthermore, a task measuring a set of several executive functions gathered in the term concept formation (Modified Card Sorting Test, MCST) and the newly developed Balanced Switching Task (BST), measuring monitoring in particular, were used. The results demonstrate that concept formation and monitoring are involved in the simultaneous performance of decision making under risk and a working memory task. In particular, the mediation analysis revealed that BST performance partially mediates the influence of MCST performance on the GDT plus 2-back task. These findings suggest that monitoring is one important subfunction for superior performance in a dual-tasking situation including decision making under risk and a working memory task. PMID:25741308

Making Debris Avoidance Decisions for ESMO's EOS Mission Set

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mantziaras, Dimitrios

2016-01-01

The presentation will cover the aspects of making debris risk decisions from the NASA Mission Director's perspective, specifically for NASA Earth Science Mission Operations (ESMO) Earth Observing System (EOS) mission set. ESMO has been involved in analyzing potential debris risk conjunctions with secondary objects since the inception of this discipline. Through the cumulated years of experience and continued exposure to various debris scenarios, ESMO's understanding of the problem and process to deal with this issue has evolved. The presentation will describe the evolution of the ESMO process, specifically as it relates to the maneuver execution and spacecraft risk management decision process. It will briefly cover the original Drag Make-Up Maneuver, several day, methodical manually intensive, ramp up waive off approach, to the present day more automated, pre-canned onboard command, tools based approach. The presentation will also cover the key information needed to make debris decisions and challenges in doing so while still trying to meet science goals, constellation constraints and manage resources. A slide or two at the end of the presentation, will be devoted to discussing what further improvements could be helpful to improve decision making and future process improvement plans challenges.

Dopaminergic Modulation of Risky Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Simon, Nicholas W.; Montgomery, Karienn S.; Beas, Blanca S.; Mitchell, Marci R.; LaSarge, Candi L.; Mendez, Ian A.; Bañuelos, Cristina; Vokes, Colin M.; Taylor, Aaron B.; Haberman, Rebecca P.; Bizon, Jennifer L.; Setlow, Barry

2012-01-01

Many psychiatric disorders are characterized by abnormal risky decision-making and dysregulated dopamine receptor expression. The current study was designed to determine how different dopamine receptor subtypes modulate risk-taking in young adult rats, using a “Risky Decision-making Task” that involves choices between small “safe” rewards and large “risky” rewards accompanied by adverse consequences. Rats showed considerable, stable individual differences in risk preference in the task, which were not related to multiple measures of reward motivation, anxiety, or pain sensitivity. Systemic activation of D2-like receptors robustly attenuated risk-taking, whereas drugs acting on D1-like receptors had no effect. Systemic amphetamine also reduced risk-taking, an effect which was attenuated by D2-like (but not D1-like) receptor blockade. Dopamine receptor mRNA expression was evaluated in a separate cohort of drug-naive rats characterized in the task. D1 mRNA expression in both nucleus accumbens shell and insular cortex was positively associated with risk-taking, while D2 mRNA expression in orbitofrontal and medial prefrontal cortex predicted risk preference in opposing nonlinear patterns. Additionally, lower levels of D2 mRNA in dorsal striatum were associated with greater risk-taking. These data strongly implicate dopamine signaling in prefrontal corticalstriatal circuitry in modulating decision-making processes involving integration of reward information with risks of adverse consequences. PMID:22131407

Decision Processes and Determinants of Hospital Evacuation and Shelter-in-Place During Hurricane Sandy.

PubMed

McGinty, Meghan D; Burke, Thomas A; Resnick, Beth; Barnett, Daniel J; Smith, Katherine C; Rutkow, Lainie

Evacuation and shelter-in-place decision making for hospitals is complex, and existing literature contains little information about how these decisions are made in practice. To describe decision-making processes and identify determinants of acute care hospital evacuation and shelter-in-place during Hurricane Sandy. Semistructured interviews were conducted from March 2014 to February 2015 with key informants who had authority and responsibility for evacuation and shelter-in-place decisions for hospitals during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and thematically analyzed. Interviewees included hospital executives and state and local public health, emergency management, and emergency medical service officials from Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York. Interviewees identified decision processes and determinants of acute care hospital evacuation and shelter-in-place during Hurricane Sandy. We interviewed 42 individuals from 32 organizations. Decisions makers reported relying on their instincts rather than employing guides or tools to make evacuation and shelter-in-place decisions during Hurricane Sandy. Risk to patient health from evacuation, prior experience, cost, and ability to maintain continuity of operations were the most influential factors in decision making. Flooding and utility outages, which were predicted to or actually impacted continuity of operations, were the primary determinants of evacuation. Evacuation and shelter-in-place decision making for hospitals can be improved by ensuring hospital emergency plans address flooding and include explicit thresholds that, if exceeded, would trigger evacuation. Comparative risk assessments that inform decision making would be enhanced by improved collection, analysis, and communication of data on morbidity and mortality associated with evacuation versus sheltering-in-place of hospitals. In addition, administrators and public officials can improve their preparedness to make evacuation and shelter-in-place decisions by practicing the use of decision-making tools during training and exercises.

Reversal of Alcohol-Induced Dysregulation in Dopamine Network Dynamics May Rescue Maladaptive Decision-making

PubMed Central

Schindler, Abigail G.; Soden, Marta E.; Zweifel, Larry S.

2016-01-01

Alcohol is the most commonly abused substance among adolescents, promoting the development of substance use disorders and compromised decision-making in adulthood. We have previously demonstrated, with a preclinical model in rodents, that adolescent alcohol use results in adult risk-taking behavior that positively correlates with phasic dopamine transmission in response to risky options, but the underlying mechanisms remain unknown. Here, we show that adolescent alcohol use may produce maladaptive decision-making through a disruption in dopamine network dynamics via increased GABAergic transmission within the ventral tegmental area (VTA). Indeed, we find that increased phasic dopamine signaling after adolescent alcohol use is attributable to a midbrain circuit, including the input from the pedunculopontine tegmentum to the VTA. Moreover, we demonstrate that VTA dopamine neurons from adult rats exhibit enhanced IPSCs after adolescent alcohol exposure corresponding to decreased basal dopamine levels in adulthood that negatively correlate with risk-taking. Building on these findings, we develop a model where increased inhibitory tone on dopamine neurons leads to a persistent decrease in tonic dopamine levels and results in a potentiation of stimulus-evoked phasic dopamine release that may drive risky choice behavior. Based on this model, we take a pharmacological approach to the reversal of risk-taking behavior through normalization of this pattern in dopamine transmission. These results isolate the underlying circuitry involved in alcohol-induced maladaptive decision-making and identify a novel therapeutic target. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT One of the primary problems resulting from chronic alcohol use is persistent, maladaptive decision-making that is associated with ongoing addiction vulnerability and relapse. Indeed, studies with the Iowa Gambling Task, a standard measure of risk-based decision-making, have reliably shown that alcohol-dependent individuals make riskier, more maladaptive choices than nondependent individuals, even after periods of prolonged abstinence. Using a preclinical model, in the current work, we identify a selective disruption in dopamine network dynamics that may promote maladaptive decision-making after chronic adolescent alcohol use and demonstrate its pharmacological reversal in adulthood. Together, these results highlight a novel neural mechanism underlying heightened risk-taking behavior in alcohol-dependent individuals and provide a potential therapeutic target for further investigation. PMID:27030756

Shared Decision-Making as the Future of Emergency Cardiology.

PubMed

Probst, Marc A; Noseworthy, Peter A; Brito, Juan P; Hess, Erik P

2018-02-01

Shared decision-making is playing an increasingly large role in emergency cardiovascular care. Although there are many challenges to successfully performing shared decision-making in the emergency department, there are numerous clinical scenarios in which it should be used. In this article, we explore new research and emerging decision aids in the following emergency care scenarios: (1) low-risk chest pain; (2) new-onset atrial fibrillation; and (3) moderate-risk syncope. These decision aids are designed to engage patients and facilitate shared decision-making for specific treatment and disposition (admit vs discharge) decisions. We then offer a 3-step, practical approach to performing shared decision-making in the acute care setting, on the basis of broad stakeholder input and previous conceptual work. Step 1 involves simply acknowledging that a clinical decision needs to be made. Step 2 involves a shared discussion about the working diagnosis and the options for care in the context of the patient's values, preferences, and circumstances. The third and final step requires the patient and provider to agree on a plan of action regarding further medical care. The implementation of shared decision-making in emergency cardiology has the potential to shift the paradigm of clinical practice from paternalism toward mutualism and improve the quality and experience of care for our patients. Copyright © 2017 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

How normative interpretations of climate risk assessment affect local decision-making: an exploratory study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland.

PubMed

McDermott, T K J; Surminski, S

2018-06-13

Urban areas already suffer substantial losses in both economic and human terms from climate-related disasters. These losses are anticipated to grow substantially, in part as a result of the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the process of translating climate risk data into action for the city level. We apply a commonly used decision-framework as our backdrop and explore where in this process climate risk assessment and normative political judgements intersect. We use the case of flood risk management in Cork city in Ireland to investigate what is needed for translating risk assessment into action at the local city level. Evidence presented is based on focus group discussions at two stakeholder workshops, and a series of individual meetings and phone-discussions with stakeholders involved in local decision-making related to flood risk management and adaptation to climate change, in Ireland. Respondents were chosen on the basis of their expertise or involvement in the decision-making processes locally and nationally. Representatives of groups affected by flood risk and flood risk management and climate adaptation efforts were also included. The Cork example highlights that, despite ever more accurate data and an increasing range of theoretical approaches available to local decision-makers, it is the normative interpretation of this information that determines what action is taken. The use of risk assessments for decision-making is a process that requires normative decisions, such as setting 'acceptable risk levels' and identifying 'adequate' protection levels, which will not succeed without broader buy-in and stakeholder participation. Identifying and embracing those normative views up-front could strengthen the urban adaptation process-this may, in fact, turn out to be the biggest advantage of climate risk assessment: it offers an opportunity to create a shared understanding of the problem and enables an informed evaluation and discussion of remedial action.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

How normative interpretations of climate risk assessment affect local decision-making: an exploratory study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDermott, T. K. J.; Surminski, S.

2018-06-01

Urban areas already suffer substantial losses in both economic and human terms from climate-related disasters. These losses are anticipated to grow substantially, in part as a result of the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the process of translating climate risk data into action for the city level. We apply a commonly used decision-framework as our backdrop and explore where in this process climate risk assessment and normative political judgements intersect. We use the case of flood risk management in Cork city in Ireland to investigate what is needed for translating risk assessment into action at the local city level. Evidence presented is based on focus group discussions at two stakeholder workshops, and a series of individual meetings and phone-discussions with stakeholders involved in local decision-making related to flood risk management and adaptation to climate change, in Ireland. Respondents were chosen on the basis of their expertise or involvement in the decision-making processes locally and nationally. Representatives of groups affected by flood risk and flood risk management and climate adaptation efforts were also included. The Cork example highlights that, despite ever more accurate data and an increasing range of theoretical approaches available to local decision-makers, it is the normative interpretation of this information that determines what action is taken. The use of risk assessments for decision-making is a process that requires normative decisions, such as setting `acceptable risk levels' and identifying `adequate' protection levels, which will not succeed without broader buy-in and stakeholder participation. Identifying and embracing those normative views up-front could strengthen the urban adaptation process-this may, in fact, turn out to be the biggest advantage of climate risk assessment: it offers an opportunity to create a shared understanding of the problem and enables an informed evaluation and discussion of remedial action. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Decision making for breast cancer prevention among women at elevated risk.

PubMed

Padamsee, Tasleem J; Wills, Celia E; Yee, Lisa D; Paskett, Electra D

2017-03-24

Several medical management approaches have been shown to be effective in preventing breast cancer and detecting it early among women at elevated risk: 1) prophylactic mastectomy; 2) prophylactic oophorectomy; 3) chemoprevention; and 4) enhanced screening routines. To varying extents, however, these approaches are substantially underused relative to clinical practice recommendations. This article reviews the existing research on the uptake of these prevention approaches, the characteristics of women who are likely to use various methods, and the decision-making processes that underlie the differing choices of women. It also highlights important areas for future research, detailing the types of studies that are particularly needed in four key areas: documenting women's perspectives on their own perceptions of risk and prevention decisions; explicit comparisons of available prevention pathways and their likely health effects; the psychological, interpersonal, and social processes of prevention decision making; and the dynamics of subgroup variation. Ultimately, this research could support the development of interventions that more fully empower women to make informed and values-consistent decisions, and to move towards favorable health outcomes.

Accepting uncertainty, assessing risk: decision quality in managing wildfire, forest resource values, and new technology

Treesearch

Jeffrey G. Borchers

2005-01-01

The risks, uncertainties, and social conflicts surrounding uncharacteristic wildfire and forest resource values have defied conventional approaches to planning and decision-making. Paradoxically, the adoption of technological innovations such as risk assessment, decision analysis, and landscape simulation models by land management organizations has been limited. The...

Risk management frameworks for human health and environmental risks.

PubMed

Jardine, Cindy; Hrudey, Steve; Shortreed, John; Craig, Lorraine; Krewski, Daniel; Furgal, Chris; McColl, Stephen

2003-01-01

A comprehensive analytical review of the risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication approaches currently being undertaken by key national, provincial/state, territorial, and international agencies was conducted. The information acquired for review was used to identify the differences, commonalities, strengths, and weaknesses among the various approaches, and to identify elements that should be included in an effective, current, and comprehensive approach applicable to environmental, human health and occupational health risks. More than 80 agencies, organizations, and advisory councils, encompassing more than 100 risk documents, were examined during the period from February 2000 until November 2002. An overview was made of the most important general frameworks for risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication for human health and ecological risk, and for occupational health risk. In addition, frameworks for specific applications were reviewed and summarized, including those for (1)contaminated sites; (2) northern contaminants; (3) priority substances; (4) standards development; (5) food safety; (6) medical devices; (7) prescription drug use; (8) emergency response; (9) transportation; (10) risk communication. Twelve frameworks were selected for more extensive review on the basis of representation of the areas of human health, ecological, and occupational health risk; relevance to Canadian risk management needs; representation of comprehensive and well-defined approaches; generalizability with their risk areas; representation of "state of the art" in Canada, the United States, and/or internationally; and extent of usage of potential usage within Canada. These 12 frameworks were: 1. Framework for Environmental Health Risk Management (US Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, 1997). 2. Health Risk Determination: The Challenge of Health Protection (Health and Welfare Canada, 1990). 3. Health Canada Decision-Making Framework for Identifying, Assessing and Managing Health Risks (Health Canada, 2000). 4. Canadian Environmental Protection Act: Human Health Risk Assessment of Priority Substances(Health Canada, 1994). 5. CSA-Q8550 Risk Management: Guidelines for Decision-Makers (Canada Standards Association, 1997). 6. Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process (US National Research Council, 1983). 7. Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society (US National Research Council, 1996). 8. Environmental Health Risk Assessment (enHealth Council of Australia, 2002). 9. A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment (CCME, 1996). 10. Ecological Risk Assessments of Priority Substances Under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act (Environment Canada, 1996).11. Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment (US EPA, 1998b). 12. Proposed Model for Occupational Health Risk Assessment and Management (Rampal & Sadhra, 1999). Based on the extensive review of these frameworks, seven key elements that should be included in a comprehensive framework for human health, ecological, and occupational risk assessment and management were identified: 1. Problem formulation stage. 2. Stakeholder involvement. 3. Communication. 4. Quantitative risk assessment components. 5. Iteration and evaluation. 6. Informed decision making. 7. Flexibility. On the basis of this overarching approach to risk management, the following "checklist" to ensure a good risk management decision is proposed: - Make sure you're solving the right problem. - Consider the problem and the risk within the full context of the situation, using a broad perspective. - Acknowledge, incorporate, and balance the multiple dimensions of risk. - Ensure the highest degree of reliability for all components of the risk management process. - Involve interested and effected parties from the outset of the process. - Commit to honest and open communication between all parties. - Employ continuous evaluation throughout the process (formative, process, and outcome evaluation), and be prepared to change the decision if new information becomes available. Comprehensive and sound principles are critical to providing structure and integrity to risk management frameworks. Guiding principles are intended to provide an ethical grounding for considering the many factors involved in risk management decision making. Ten principles are proposed to guide risk management decision making. The first four principles were adapted and modified from Hattis (1996) along with the addition of two more principles by Hrudey (2000). These have been supplemented by another four principles to make the 10 presented. The principles are based in fundamental ethical principles and values. These principles are intended to be aspirational rather than prescriptive--their application requires flexibility and practical judgement. Risk management is inherently a process in search of balance among competing interests and concerns. Each risk management decision will be "balancing act" of competing priorities, and trade-offs may sometimes have to be made between seemingly conflicting principles. The 10 decision-making principles, with the corresponding ethical principle in italics are: 1. Do more good than harm (beneficence, nonmalificence).- The ultimate goal of good risk management is to prevent or minimize risk, or to "do good" as much as possible. 2. Fair process of decision making (fairness, natural justice). - Risk management must be just, equitable, impartial, unbiased, dispassionate, and objective as far as possible given the circumstances of each situation. 3. Ensure an equitable distribution of risk (equity). - An equitable process of risk management would ensure fair outcomes and equal treatment of all concerned through an equal distribution of benefits and burdens (includes the concept of distributive justice, i.e., equal opportunities for all individuals). 4. Seek optimal use of limited risk management resources (utility). - Optimal risk management demands using limited resources where they will achieve the most risk reduction of overall benefit. 5. Promise no more risk management that can be delivered (honesty).- Unrealistic expectations of risk management can be avoided with honest and candid public accounting of what we know and don't know, and what we can and can't do using risk assessment and risk management. 6. Impose no more risk that you would tolerate yourself (the Golden Rule). - The Golden Rule is important in risk management because it forces decision makers to abandon complete detachment from their decisions so they may understand the perspectives of those affected. 7. Be cautious in the face of uncertainty ("better safe than sorry"). - Risk management must adopt a cautious approach when faced with a potentially serous risk, even if the evidence is uncertain. 8. Foster informed risk decision making for all stakeholders (autonomy). - Fostering autonomous decision making involves both providing people with the opportunity to participate, and full and honest disclosure of all the information required for informed decisions. 9. Risk management processes must be flexible and evolutionary to be open to new knowledge and understanding (evolution, evaluation, iterative process). - The incorporation of new evidence requires that risk management be a flexible, evolutionary, and iterative process, and that evaluation is employed at the beginning and througthout the process. 10. the complete elimination fo risk is not possible (life is not risk free).- Risk is pervasive in our society, and cannot be totally eliminated despite an oft-expressed public desire for "zero risk". However, the level of risk that may ve tolerable by any individual is dependent on values of beliefs, as well as scientific information. Each agency must continue to employ a process that meets the needs of their specific application of risk management. A single approach cannot satisfy the diverse areas to which risk decisions are being applied. However, with increasing experience in the application of the approaches, we are evolving to a common understanding of the essential elements and principles required for successful risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. Risk management will continue to be a balancing act of competing priorities and needs. Flexibility and good judgement are ultimately the key to successfully making appropriate risk decisions.

Differential Contributions of Nucleus Accumbens Subregions to Cue-Guided Risk/Reward Decision Making and Implementation of Conditional Rules.

PubMed

Floresco, Stan B; Montes, David R; Tse, Maric M T; van Holstein, Mieke

2018-02-21

The nucleus accumbens (NAc) is a key node within corticolimbic circuitry for guiding action selection and cost/benefit decision making in situations involving reward uncertainty. Preclinical studies have typically assessed risk/reward decision making using assays where decisions are guided by internally generated representations of choice-outcome contingencies. Yet, real-life decisions are often influenced by external stimuli that inform about likelihoods of obtaining rewards. How different subregions of the NAc mediate decision making in such situations is unclear. Here, we used a novel assay colloquially termed the "Blackjack" task that models these types of situations. Male Long-Evans rats were trained to choose between one lever that always delivered a one-pellet reward and another that delivered four pellets with different probabilities [either 50% (good-odds) or 12.5% (poor-odds)], which were signaled by one of two auditory cues. Under control conditions, rats selected the large/risky option more often on good-odds versus poor-odds trials. Inactivation of the NAc core caused indiscriminate choice patterns. In contrast, NAc shell inactivation increased risky choice, more prominently on poor-odds trials. Additional experiments revealed that both subregions contribute to auditory conditional discrimination. NAc core or shell inactivation reduced Pavlovian approach elicited by an auditory CS+, yet shell inactivation also increased responding during presentation of a CS-. These data highlight distinct contributions for NAc subregions in decision making and reward seeking guided by discriminative stimuli. The core is crucial for implementation of conditional rules, whereas the shell refines reward seeking by mitigating the allure of larger, unlikely rewards and reducing expression of inappropriate or non-rewarded actions. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Using external cues to guide decision making is crucial for adaptive behavior. Deficits in cue-guided behavior have been associated with neuropsychiatric disorders, such as attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and schizophrenia, which in turn has been linked to aberrant processing in the nucleus accumbens. However, many preclinical studies have often assessed risk/reward decision making in the absence of explicit cues. The current study fills that gap by using a novel task that allows for the assessment of cue-guided risk/reward decision making in rodents. Our findings identified distinct yet complementary roles for the medial versus lateral portions of this nucleus that provide a broader understanding of the differential contributions it makes to decision making and reward seeking guided by discriminative stimuli. Copyright © 2018 the authors 0270-6474/18/381901-14$15.00/0.

Dynamic fluctuations in dopamine efflux in the prefrontal cortex and nucleus accumbens during risk-based decision making.

PubMed

St Onge, Jennifer R; Ahn, Soyon; Phillips, Anthony G; Floresco, Stan B

2012-11-21

Mesocorticolimbic dopamine (DA) has been implicated in cost/benefit decision making about risks and rewards. The prefrontal cortex (PFC) and nucleus accumbens (NAc) are two DA terminal regions that contribute to decision making in distinct manners. However, how fluctuations of tonic DA levels may relate to different aspects of decision making remains to be determined. The present study measured DA efflux in the PFC and NAc with microdialysis in well trained rats performing a probabilistic discounting task. Selection of a small/certain option always delivered one pellet, whereas another, large/risky option yielded four pellets, with probabilities that decreased (100-12.5%) or increased (12.5-100%) across four blocks of trials. Yoked-reward groups were also included to control for reward delivery. PFC DA efflux during decision making decreased or increased over a session, corresponding to changes in large/risky reward probabilities. Similar profiles were observed from yoked-rewarded rats, suggesting that fluctuations in PFC DA reflect changes in the relative rate of reward received. NAc DA efflux also showed decreasing/increasing trends over the session during both tasks. However, DA efflux was higher during decision making on free- versus forced-choice trials and during periods of greater reward uncertainty. Moreover, changes in NAc DA closely tracked shifts in choice biases. These data reveal dynamic and dissociable fluctuations in PFC and NAc DA transmission associated with different aspects of risk-based decision making. PFC DA may signal changes in reward availability that facilitates modification of choice biases, whereas NAc DA encodes integrated signals about reward rates, uncertainty, and choice, reflecting implementation of decision policies.

Pollinator Protection Strategic Plan

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Developed by EPA, this ensures that pesticide risk assessments and risk management decisions use best available information and scientific methods, and full evaluation of pollinator protection when making registration decisions.

Decision Making in Periodontics: A Review of Outcome Measures.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matthews, Debora C.

1994-01-01

The complexity of decision making concerning periodontic treatment is discussed, and it is suggested that patient input concerning risks and benefits is important. Research into this area is recommended so that decisions can be based on empirical evidence, not opinion. (MSE)

Disgust as a Mechanism for Decision Making Under Risk: Illuminating Sex Differences and Individual Risk-Taking Correlates of Disgust Propensity.

PubMed

Sparks, Adam Maxwell; Fessler, Daniel M T; Chan, Kai Qin; Ashokkumar, Ashwini; Holbrook, Colin

2018-02-01

The emotion disgust motivates costly behavioral strategies that mitigate against potentially larger costs associated with pathogens, sexual behavior, and moral transgressions. Because disgust thereby regulates exposure to harm, it is by definition a mechanism for calibrating decision making under risk. Understanding this illuminates two features of the demographic distribution of this emotion. First, this approach predicts and explains sex differences in disgust. Greater female disgust propensity is often reported and discussed in the literature, but, to date, conclusions have been based on informal comparisons across a small number of studies, while existing functionalist explanations are at best incomplete. We report the results of an extensive meta-analysis documenting this sex difference, arguing that key features of this pattern are best explained as one manifestation of a broad principle of the evolutionary biology of risk-taking: for a given potential benefit, males in an effectively polygynous mating system accept the risk of harm more willingly than do females. Second, viewing disgust as a mechanism for decision making under risk likewise predicts that individual differences in disgust propensity should correlate with individual differences in various forms of risky behavior, because situational and dispositional factors that influence valuation of opportunity and hazard are often correlated across multiple decision contexts. In two large-sample online studies, we find consistent associations between disgust and risk avoidance. We conclude that disgust and related emotions can be usefully examined through the theoretical lens of decision making under risk in light of human evolution. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-05-29

decision under risk is the deriva- .- tion of the expected utility rule from simple principles of rational choice that make no . reference to long-run...corrective power of incentives depends on the nature of the particular error and cannot be taken for granted. The assumption of rationality of decision making ...easily eliminated by experience must be demonstrated. Finally, it is sometimes argued that failures of rationality in individual decision making are

Biotechnology and Consumer Decision-Making.

PubMed

Sax, Joanna K

Society is facing major challenges in climate change, health care and overall quality of life. Scientific advances to address these areas continue to grow, with overwhelming evidence that the application of highly tested forms of biotechnology is safe and effective. Despite scientific consensus in these areas, consumers appear reluctant to support their use. Research that helps to understand consumer decision-making and the public’s resistance to biotechnologies such as vaccines, fluoridated water programs and genetically engineered food, will provide great social value. This article is forward-thinking in that it suggests that important research in behavioral decision-making, specifically affect and ambiguity, can be used to help consumers make informed choices about major applications of biotechnology. This article highlights some of the most controversial examples: vaccinations, genetically engineered food, rbST treated dairy cows, fluoridated water, and embryonic stem cell research. In many of these areas, consumers perceive the risks as high, but the experts calculate the risks as low. Four major thematic approaches are proposed to create a roadmap for policymakers to consider for policy design and implementation in controversial areas of biotechnology. This article articulates future directions for studies that implement decision-making research to allow consumers to appropriately assign risk to their options and make informed decisions.

Cortisol boosts risky decision-making behavior in men but not in women.

PubMed

Kluen, Lisa Marieke; Agorastos, Agorastos; Wiedemann, Klaus; Schwabe, Lars

2017-10-01

Acute stress may escalate risky decision-making in men, while there is no such effect in women. Although first evidence links these gender-specific effects of stress to stress-induced changes in cortisol, whether elevated cortisol is indeed sufficient to boost risk-taking, whether a potential cortisol effect depends on simultaneous noradrenergic activation, and whether cortisol and noradrenergic activation exert distinct effects on risk-taking in men and women is unknown. In this experiment, we therefore set out to elucidate the impact of cortisol and noradrenergic stimulation on risky decision-making in men and women. In a fully-crossed, placebo-controlled, double-blind design, male and female participants received orally either a placebo, hydrocortisone, yohimbine, an alpha-2-adrenoceptor-antagonist leading to increased noradrenergic stimulation, or both drugs before completing the balloon analogue risk task, a validated measure of risk-taking. Overall, participants' choice was risk-sensitive as reflected in reduced responding in high- compared to moderate- and low-risk conditions. Cortisol, however, led to a striking increase in risk-taking in men, whereas it had no effect on risk-taking behavior in women. Yohimbine had no such effect and the gender-specific effect of cortisol was not modulated by yohimbine. Our data show that cortisol boosts risk-taking behavior in men but not in women. This differential effect of cortisol on risk-taking may drive gender differences in risky decision-making under stress. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cycles of shame: menstrual shame, body shame, and sexual decision-making.

PubMed

Schooler, Deborah; Ward, L Monique; Merriwether, Ann; Caruthers, Allison S

2005-11-01

Although numerous factors have been implicated in women's sexual decision-making, less attention has been focused on how their feelings about their bodies and reproductive functions affect these processes. Recent findings link menstrual shame to lower levels of sexual activity and higher levels of sexual risk; however the mechanisms behind these relations remain unexplored. Accordingly, this study investigates the contributions of menstrual shame and global body shame to sexual decision-making among 199 undergraduate women. Using structural equation modeling, we evaluated a mediated model, whereby menstrual shame is indirectly associated with sexual decision-making via body shame. As expected, women who reported feeling more comfort about menstruation also reported more body comfort and, in turn, more sexual assertiveness, more sexual experience, and less sexual risk.

Managing industrial risk--having a tested and proven system to prevent and assess risk.

PubMed

Heller, Stephen

2006-03-17

Some relatively easy techniques exist to improve the risk picture/profile to aid in preventing losses. Today with the advent of computer system resources, focusing on specific aspects of risk through systematic scoring and comparison, the risk analysis can be relatively easy to achieve. Techniques like these demonstrate how working experience and common sense can be combined mathematically into a flexible risk management tool or risk model for analyzing risk. The risk assessment methodology provided by companies today is no longer the ideas and practices of one group or even one company. It is reflective of the practice of many companies, as well as the ideas and expertise of academia and government regulators. The use of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques for making critical decisions has been recognized for many years for a variety of purposes. In today's computer age, the easy accessing and user-friendly nature for using these techniques, makes them a favorable choice for use in the risk assessment environment. The new user of these methodologies should find many ideas directly applicable to his or her needs when approaching risk decision making. The user should find their ideas readily adapted, with slight modification, to accurately reflect a specific situation using MCDM techniques. This makes them an attractive feature for use in assessment and risk modeling. The main advantage of decision making techniques, such as MCDM, is that in the early stages of a risk assessment, accurate data on industrial risk, and failures are lacking. In most cases, it is still insufficient to perform a thorough risk assessment using purely statistical concepts. The practical advantages towards deviating from strict data-driven protocol seem to outweigh the drawbacks. Industry failure data often comes at a high cost when a loss occurs. We can benefit from this unfortunate acquisition of data through the continuous refining of our decisions by incorporating this new information into our assessments. MCDM techniques offer flexibility in accessing comparison within broad data sets to reflect our best estimation of their importance towards contribution to the risk picture. This allows for the accurate determination of the more probable and more consequential issues. This can later be refined using more intensive risk techniques and the avoidance of less critical issues.

The Risky Shift in Policy Decision Making: A Comparative Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilpert, B.; And Others

1976-01-01

Based on analysis of data on 432 decision-makers from around the world, this study examines the decision-making phenomenon that individuals tend to move toward riskier decisions after group discussion. Findings of the analysis contradicted earlier studies, showing a consistent shift toward greater risk avoidance. Available from Elsevier Scientific…

Atlas-guided volumetric diffuse optical tomography enhanced by generalized linear model analysis to image risk decision-making responses in young adults.

PubMed

Lin, Zi-Jing; Li, Lin; Cazzell, Mary; Liu, Hanli

2014-08-01

Diffuse optical tomography (DOT) is a variant of functional near infrared spectroscopy and has the capability of mapping or reconstructing three dimensional (3D) hemodynamic changes due to brain activity. Common methods used in DOT image analysis to define brain activation have limitations because the selection of activation period is relatively subjective. General linear model (GLM)-based analysis can overcome this limitation. In this study, we combine the atlas-guided 3D DOT image reconstruction with GLM-based analysis (i.e., voxel-wise GLM analysis) to investigate the brain activity that is associated with risk decision-making processes. Risk decision-making is an important cognitive process and thus is an essential topic in the field of neuroscience. The Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART) is a valid experimental model and has been commonly used to assess human risk-taking actions and tendencies while facing risks. We have used the BART paradigm with a blocked design to investigate brain activations in the prefrontal and frontal cortical areas during decision-making from 37 human participants (22 males and 15 females). Voxel-wise GLM analysis was performed after a human brain atlas template and a depth compensation algorithm were combined to form atlas-guided DOT images. In this work, we wish to demonstrate the excellence of using voxel-wise GLM analysis with DOT to image and study cognitive functions in response to risk decision-making. Results have shown significant hemodynamic changes in the dorsal lateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) during the active-choice mode and a different activation pattern between genders; these findings correlate well with published literature in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and fNIRS studies. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Human Brain Mapping Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Betting on DBS: Effects of Subthalamic Nucleus Deep Brain Stimulation on Risk-Taking and Decision-Making in Patients with Parkinson’s Disease

PubMed Central

Brandt, Jason; Rogerson, Mark; Al-Joudi, Haya; Reckess, Gila; Shpritz, Barnett; Umeh, Chizoba C.; Aljehani, Noha; Mills, Kelly; Mari, Zoltan

2014-01-01

Objective Concerns persist that deep brain stimulation (DBS) for Parkinson’s disease (PD) increases impulsivity and/or induces excessive reward-seeking. We report here the performance of PD patients with implanted subthalamic nucleus electrodes, with stimulation on and off, on three laboratory tasks of risk-taking and decision-making. They are compared to PD patients maintained on medication and normal control subjects. Methods and Results In the Game of Dice Task, a test of “risky” decision-making, PD patients with or without DBS made highest-risk bets more often, and ended up with less money, than normal controls. There was a trend for DBS stimulation to ameliorate this effect. Deal or No-Deal is an “ambiguous” decision-making task that assessed preference for risk (holding on to one’s briefcase) over a “sure thing” (accepting the banker’s offer). Here, DBS patients were more conservative with stimulation on than off. They accepted smaller offers from the banker and won less money in the DBS-on condition. Overall, the two PD groups won less money than healthy participants. The Framing Paradigm assessed willingness to gamble on a fixed (unambiguous) prize depending on whether the reward was “framed” as a loss or a gain. Nonsurgical PD patients tended to be more risk-averse than normal subjects, whereas DBS patients were more willing to gamble for gains as well as losses both on and off stimulation. Conclusions On “risky” decision-making tasks, DBS patients were more risk-taking than normal, but stimulation may temper this tendency. In contrast, in an “ambiguous risk” situation, DBS patients were more risk-averse (conservative) than normal, and this tendency was greatest with stimulation. PMID:25486385

Effects of Age and Initial Risk Perception on Balloon Analog Risk Task: The Mediating Role of Processing Speed and Need for Cognitive Closure

PubMed Central

Koscielniak, Maciej; Rydzewska, Klara; Sedek, Grzegorz

2016-01-01

According to the dual-process theoretical perspective adopted in the presented research, the efficiency of deliberative processes in decision making declines with age, but experiential processes are relatively well-preserved. The age-related differences in deliberative and experiential processes in risky decision-making were examined in this research by applying the Balloon Analog Risk Task (BART). We analyzed the influence of age on risk acceptance and decision-making performance in two age groups of female participants (younger adults, n = 81; older adults, n = 76), with additional experimental manipulation of initial risk perception. We predicted and confirmed that aging significantly worsens performance on the behavioral BART measures due to age-related decline in deliberative processes. Older participants were found to exhibit significantly higher risk aversion and lower BART performance, and the effect of age was mediated by cognitive (processing speed) and motivational (need for cognitive closure) mechanisms. Moreover, older adults adapt to the initial failure (vs. success) similarly, as younger adults due to preserved efficiency of experiential processes. These results suggest future directions for minimizing negative effects of aging in risky decision-making and indicate compensatory processes, which are preserved during aging. PMID:27199877

Multi-criteria decision analysis and environmental risk assessment for nanomaterials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linkov, Igor; Satterstrom, F. Kyle; Steevens, Jeffery; Ferguson, Elizabeth; Pleus, Richard C.

2007-08-01

Nanotechnology is a broad and complex discipline that holds great promise for innovations that can benefit mankind. Yet, one must not overlook the wide array of factors involved in managing nanomaterial development, ranging from the technical specifications of the material to possible adverse effects in humans. Other opportunities to evaluate benefits and risks are inherent in environmental health and safety (EHS) issues related to nanotechnology. However, there is currently no structured approach for making justifiable and transparent decisions with explicit trade-offs between the many factors that need to be taken into account. While many possible decision-making approaches exist, we believe that multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a powerful and scientifically sound decision analytical framework for nanomaterial risk assessment and management. This paper combines state-of-the-art research in MCDA methods applicable to nanotechnology with a hypothetical case study for nanomaterial management. The example shows how MCDA application can balance societal benefits against unintended side effects and risks, and how it can also bring together multiple lines of evidence to estimate the likely toxicity and risk of nanomaterials given limited information on physical and chemical properties. The essential contribution of MCDA is to link this performance information with decision criteria and weightings elicited from scientists and managers, allowing visualization and quantification of the trade-offs involved in the decision-making process.

Dynamics of Sequential Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rabinovich, Mikhail I.; Huerta, Ramón; Afraimovich, Valentin

2006-11-01

We suggest a new paradigm for intelligent decision-making suitable for dynamical sequential activity of animals or artificial autonomous devices that depends on the characteristics of the internal and external world. To do it we introduce a new class of dynamical models that are described by ordinary differential equations with a finite number of possibilities at the decision points, and also include rules solving this uncertainty. Our approach is based on the competition between possible cognitive states using their stable transient dynamics. The model controls the order of choosing successive steps of a sequential activity according to the environment and decision-making criteria. Two strategies (high-risk and risk-aversion conditions) that move the system out of an erratic environment are analyzed.

Negative Affect, Decision Making, and Attentional Networks.

PubMed

Ortega, Ana Raquel; Ramírez, Encarnación; Colmenero, José María; García-Viedma, Ma Del Rosario

2017-02-01

This study focuses on whether risk avoidance in decision making depends on negative affect or it is specific to anxious individuals. The Balloon Analogue Risk Task was used to obtain an objective measure in a risk situation with anxious, depressive, and control individuals. The role of attentional networks was also studied using the Attentional Network Test-Interaction (ANT-I) task with neutral stimuli. A significant difference was observed between anxious and depressive individuals in assumed risk in decision making. We found no differences between anxious and normal individuals in the alert, orientation, and congruency effects obtained in the ANT-I task. The results showed that there was no significant relationship between the risk avoidance and the indexes of alertness, orienting, and control. Future research shall determine whether emotionally relevant stimulation leads to attentional control deficit or whether differences between anxious and no anxious individuals are due to the type of strategy followed in choice tasks.

Sensitivity and Bias in Decision-Making under Risk: Evaluating the Perception of Reward, Its Probability and Value

PubMed Central

Sharp, Madeleine E.; Viswanathan, Jayalakshmi; Lanyon, Linda J.; Barton, Jason J. S.

2012-01-01

Background There are few clinical tools that assess decision-making under risk. Tests that characterize sensitivity and bias in decisions between prospects varying in magnitude and probability of gain may provide insights in conditions with anomalous reward-related behaviour. Objective We designed a simple test of how subjects integrate information about the magnitude and the probability of reward, which can determine discriminative thresholds and choice bias in decisions under risk. Design/Methods Twenty subjects were required to choose between two explicitly described prospects, one with higher probability but lower magnitude of reward than the other, with the difference in expected value between the two prospects varying from 3 to 23%. Results Subjects showed a mean threshold sensitivity of 43% difference in expected value. Regarding choice bias, there was a ‘risk premium’ of 38%, indicating a tendency to choose higher probability over higher reward. An analysis using prospect theory showed that this risk premium is the predicted outcome of hypothesized non-linearities in the subjective perception of reward value and probability. Conclusions This simple test provides a robust measure of discriminative value thresholds and biases in decisions under risk. Prospect theory can also make predictions about decisions when subjective perception of reward or probability is anomalous, as may occur in populations with dopaminergic or striatal dysfunction, such as Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia. PMID:22493669

To admit or not to admit? The effect of framing on risk assessment decision making in psychiatrists.

PubMed

Jefferies-Sewell, Kiri; Sharma, Shivani; Gale, Tim M; Hawley, Chris J; Georgiou, George J; Laws, Keith R

2015-02-01

The way that information is presented is well known to induce a range of biases in human decision tasks. Little research exists on framing effects in psychiatric decision making, but it is reasonable to assume that psychiatrists are not immune and, if so, there may be implications for the welfare of patients, staff and the general public. To investigate whether presentation of risk information in different formats (frequency, percentage and semantic) influences inpatient admission decisions by psychiatrists. Six-hundred seventy-eight general adult psychiatrists read a short clinical vignette presenting a case scenario of a patient presenting for inpatient admission. One of four condition questions followed the vignette, incorporating either numerical or percentage probabilities and the semantic labels "high" and "low" risk. In each condition, the actual risk was identical, but the way it was presented varied. The decision to admit the patient or not was recorded and compared across conditions. More individuals chose to admit the patient when risk information was presented in numerical form (X2 = 7.43, p = 0.006) and with the semantic label "high" (X2 = 7.27, p = 0.007). Presentation of risk information may influence decision making in psychiatrists. This has important implications for mental health clinical practice where clinicians are required to interpret probabilistic information within their daily work.

Drunk decisions: Alcohol shifts choice from habitual towards goal-directed control in adolescent intermediate-risk drinkers.

PubMed

Obst, Elisabeth; Schad, Daniel J; Huys, Quentin Jm; Sebold, Miriam; Nebe, Stephan; Sommer, Christian; Smolka, Michael N; Zimmermann, Ulrich S

2018-05-01

Studies in humans and animals suggest a shift from goal-directed to habitual decision-making in addiction. We therefore tested whether acute alcohol administration reduces goal-directed and promotes habitual decision-making, and whether these effects are moderated by self-reported drinking problems. Fifty-three socially drinking males completed the two-step task in a randomised crossover design while receiving an intravenous infusion of ethanol (blood alcohol level=80 mg%), or placebo. To minimise potential bias by long-standing heavy drinking and subsequent neuropsychological impairment, we tested 18- to 19-year-old adolescents. Alcohol administration consistently reduced habitual, model-free decisions, while its effects on goal-directed, model-based behaviour varied as a function of drinking problems measured with the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test. While adolescents with low risk for drinking problems (scoring <8) exhibited an alcohol-induced numerical reduction in goal-directed choices, intermediate-risk drinkers showed a shift away from habitual towards goal-directed decision-making, such that alcohol possibly even improved their performance. We assume that alcohol disrupted basic cognitive functions underlying habitual and goal-directed decisions in low-risk drinkers, thereby enhancing hasty choices. Further, we speculate that intermediate-risk drinkers benefited from alcohol as a negative reinforcer that reduced unpleasant emotional states, possibly displaying a novel risk factor for drinking in adolescence.

Sensitivity and bias in decision-making under risk: evaluating the perception of reward, its probability and value.

PubMed

Sharp, Madeleine E; Viswanathan, Jayalakshmi; Lanyon, Linda J; Barton, Jason J S

2012-01-01

There are few clinical tools that assess decision-making under risk. Tests that characterize sensitivity and bias in decisions between prospects varying in magnitude and probability of gain may provide insights in conditions with anomalous reward-related behaviour. We designed a simple test of how subjects integrate information about the magnitude and the probability of reward, which can determine discriminative thresholds and choice bias in decisions under risk. Twenty subjects were required to choose between two explicitly described prospects, one with higher probability but lower magnitude of reward than the other, with the difference in expected value between the two prospects varying from 3 to 23%. Subjects showed a mean threshold sensitivity of 43% difference in expected value. Regarding choice bias, there was a 'risk premium' of 38%, indicating a tendency to choose higher probability over higher reward. An analysis using prospect theory showed that this risk premium is the predicted outcome of hypothesized non-linearities in the subjective perception of reward value and probability. This simple test provides a robust measure of discriminative value thresholds and biases in decisions under risk. Prospect theory can also make predictions about decisions when subjective perception of reward or probability is anomalous, as may occur in populations with dopaminergic or striatal dysfunction, such as Parkinson's disease and schizophrenia.

Direct-to-consumer advertising and its utility in health care decision making: a consumer perspective.

PubMed

Deshpande, Aparna; Menon, Ajit; Perri, Matthew; Zinkhan, George

2004-01-01

The growth in direct-to-consumer advertising(DTCA)over the past two decades has facilitated the communication of prescription drug information directly to consumers. Data from a 1999 national survey are employed to determine the factors influencing consumers' opinions of the utility of DTC ads for health care decision making. We also analyze whether consumers use DTC ad information in health care decision making and who are the key drivers of such information utilization. The study results suggest that consumers have positive opinions of DTCA utility, varying across demographics and perceptions of certain advertisement features. Specifically, consumers value information about both risks and benefits, but the perception of risk information is more important in shaping opinions of ad utility than the perception of benefit information. Consumers still perceive, however that the quality of benefit information in DTC ads is better than that of risk information. Opinions about ad utility significantly influence whether information from DTC ads is used in health care decision making.

The Influence of Math Anxiety, Math Performance, Worry, and Test Anxiety on the Iowa Gambling Task and Balloon Analogue Risk Task.

PubMed

Buelow, Melissa T; Barnhart, Wesley R

2017-01-01

Multiple studies have shown that performance on behavioral decision-making tasks, such as the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART), is influenced by external factors, such as mood. However, the research regarding the influence of worry is mixed, and no research has examined the effect of math or test anxiety on these tasks. The present study investigated the effects of anxiety (including math anxiety) and math performance on the IGT and BART in a sample of 137 undergraduate students. Math performance and worry were not correlated with performance on the IGT, and no variables were correlated with BART performance. Linear regressions indicated math anxiety, physiological anxiety, social concerns/stress, and test anxiety significantly predicted disadvantageous selections on the IGT during the transition from decision making under ambiguity to decision making under risk. Implications for clinical evaluation of decision making are discussed. © The Author(s) 2015.

Vaccine administration decision making: the case of yellow fever vaccine.

PubMed

Lown, Beth A; Chen, Lin H; Wilson, Mary E; Sisson, Emily; Gershman, Mark; Yanni, Emad; Jentes, Emily S; Hochberg, Natasha S; Hamer, Davidson H; Barnett, Elizabeth D

2012-09-01

Providers must counsel travelers to yellow fever (YF)-endemic areas, although risk estimates of disease and vaccine serious adverse events (SAEs) may be imprecise. The impact of risk information and patients' requests for participation in vaccine decisions on providers' recommendations is unknown. Vaccine providers were surveyed regarding decisions for 4 patient scenarios before and after being presented information about risk of YF disease vs vaccine SAEs. Participants' theoretical attitudes were compared with actual responses to scenarios in which patients wanted to share vaccine decisions. Analyses were done by using χ(2) tests with significance level of .05. Forty-six percent of respondents made appropriate initial YF vaccine administration decisions for a pregnant woman, 73% for an immunosuppressed man, and 49% for an 8-month-old infant. After receiving scenario-specific information, 20%, 54%, and 23% of respondents respectively who initially responded incorrectly changed to a more appropriate decision. Thirty-one percent of participants made consistently appropriate decisions. Among participants who made ≥1 incorrect decision, 35.7% made no decision changes after receiving information. In the scenario in which either a decision to withhold or to administer vaccine was acceptable, 19% of respondents refused a patient's request for vaccine. Targeted information is necessary but insufficient to change the process of vaccine administration decision making. Providers need additional education to enable them to apply evidence, overcome cognitive decision-making errors, and involve patients in vaccine decisions.

Prostate cancer survivors with a passive role preference in treatment decision-making are less satisfied with information received: Results from the PROFILES registry.

PubMed

Cuypers, Maarten; Lamers, Romy E D; de Vries, Marieke; Husson, Olga; Kil, Paul J M; van de Poll-Franse, Lonneke V

2016-11-01

To investigate decision-making role preferences and their association with the evaluation of information received in a sample of low-risk and intermediate-risk prostate cancer (Pca) survivors. Cross-sectional study involved 562 men diagnosed with low-risk or intermediate-risk Pca (median time since diagnosis, 48mo), measuring preferred decision-making role (Control Preference Scale) and the evaluation of information received (EORTC QLQ-INFO25). Analyses were performed using analysis of variance, chi-square tests, and multivariable linear regression models. Men who preferred a passive role were older and less educated than other preference groups and more often selected a noninvasive treatment option (all with P<0.001). The passive role preference group reported having received less information, judged the received information as less helpful, and indicated lower overall satisfaction with information received (all with P<0.05). Role preference groups did not differ in their desire to receive more information. Compared with nonpassive preference groups, the preference for a passive role in Pca treatment decision-making is associated with less satisfaction with the information received. Assessment of role preferences and tailored information provision could improve satisfaction with information received and perhaps may ultimately lead to improved patient participation in treatment decision-making. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decision-making for risky gains and losses among college students with Internet gaming disorder.

PubMed

Yao, Yuan-Wei; Chen, Pin-Ru; Li, Song; Wang, Ling-Jiao; Zhang, Jin-Tao; Yip, Sarah W; Chen, Gang; Deng, Lin-Yuan; Liu, Qin-Xue; Fang, Xiao-Yi

2015-01-01

Individuals with Internet gaming disorder (IGD) tend to exhibit disadvantageous risky decision-making not only in their real life but also in laboratory tasks. Decision-making is a complex multifaceted function and different cognitive processes are involved in decision-making for gains and losses. However, the relationship between impaired decision-making and gain versus loss processing in the context of IGD is poorly understood. The main aim of the present study was to separately evaluate decision-making for risky gains and losses among college students with IGD using the Cups task. Additionally, we further examined the effects of outcome magnitude and probability level on decision-making related to risky gains and losses respectively. Sixty college students with IGD and 42 matched healthy controls (HCs) participated. Results indicated that IGD subjects exhibited generally greater risk taking tendencies than HCs. In comparison to HCs, IGD subjects made more disadvantageous risky choices in the loss domain (but not in the gain domain). Follow-up analyses indicated that the impairment was associated to insensitivity to changes in outcome magnitude and probability level for risky losses among IGD subjects. In addition, higher Internet addiction severity scores were associated with percentage of disadvantageous risky options in the loss domain. These findings emphasize the effect of insensitivity to losses on disadvantageous decisions under risk in the context of IGD, which has implications for future intervention studies.

The chronometry of risk processing in the human cortex

PubMed Central

Symmonds, Mkael; Moran, Rosalyn J.; Wright, Nicholas D.; Bossaerts, Peter; Barnes, Gareth; Dolan, Raymond J.

2013-01-01

The neuroscience of human decision-making has focused on localizing brain activity correlating with decision variables and choice, most commonly using functional MRI (fMRI). Poor temporal resolution means these studies are agnostic in relation to how decisions unfold in time. Consequently, here we address the temporal evolution of neural activity related to encoding of risk using magnetoencephalography (MEG), and show modulations of electromagnetic power in posterior parietal and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (DMPFC) which scale with both variance and skewness in a lottery, detectable within 500 ms following stimulus presentation. Electromagnetic responses in somatosensory cortex following this risk encoding predict subsequent choices. Furthermore, within anterior insula we observed early and late effects of subject-specific risk preferences, suggestive of a role in both risk assessment and risk anticipation during choice. The observation that cortical activity tracks specific and independent components of risk from early time-points in a decision-making task supports the hypothesis that specialized brain circuitry underpins risk perception. PMID:23970849

Beyond gains and losses: the effect of need on risky choice in framed decisions.

PubMed

Mishra, Sandeep; Fiddick, Laurence

2012-06-01

Substantial evidence suggests people are risk-averse when making decisions described in terms of gains and risk-prone when making decisions described in terms of losses, a phenomenon known as the framing effect. Little research, however, has examined whether framing effects are a product of normative risk-sensitive cognitive processes. In 5 experiments, it is demonstrated that framing effects in the Asian disease problem can be explained by risk-sensitivity theory, which predicts that decision makers adjust risk acceptance on the basis of minimal acceptable thresholds, or need. Both explicit and self-determined need requirements eliminated framing effects and affected risk acceptance consistent with risk-sensitivity theory. Furthermore, negative language choice in loss frames conferred the perception of high need and led to the construction of higher minimal acceptable thresholds. The results of this study suggest that risk-sensitivity theory provides a normative rationale for framing effects based on sensitivity to minimal acceptable thresholds, or needs. 2012 APA, all rights reserved

The role of decision-making in cannabis-related problems among young adults

PubMed Central

Gonzalez, Raul; Schuster, Randi M.; Mermelstein, Robin M.; Diviak, Kathleen R.

2015-01-01

Background Deficits in decision-making and episodic memory are often reported among heavy cannabis users, yet little is known on how they influence negative consequences from cannabis use. Individual differences in decision-making may explain, in part, why some individuals experience significant problems from their cannabis use whereas others do not. We hypothesized that poor decision-making would moderate relationships between amount of cannabis use and problems from cannabis use whereas episodic memory performance would not. Method Young adult cannabis users (n = 52) with cannabis as their drug of choice and with minimal comorbidities completed semi-structured interviews, self-report questionnaires, and measures of neurocognitive functioning, with decision-making accessed via the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), episodic memory via the Hopkins Verbal Learning Test – Revised (HVLT) and problems from cannabis use with the Marijuana Problems Scale. Results Strong relationships were observed between amount of cannabis use (lifetime, 12-month, and 30-day) and problems reported from use, but only among participants with Low (impaired) decision-making (R2 = .39 to .51; p < .01). No significant relationships were observed among those with better (low average to high average) decision-making performance (p > .05). In contrast, episodic memory performance was not a significant moderator of the relationship between amount of cannabis use and cannabis problems (p > .05). Conclusions Cannabis users with poor decision-making may be at greater risk for experiencing significant negative consequences from their cannabis use. Our results lend further support to emerging evidence of decision-making as a risk factor for addiction and extend these findings to cannabis users. PMID:26199058

Gunslingers, poker players, and chickens 1: Decision making under physical performance pressure in elite athletes.

PubMed

Parkin, Beth L; Warriner, Katie; Walsh, Vincent

2017-01-01

The cognitive skills required during sport are highly demanding; accurate decisions based on the processing of dynamic environments are made in a fraction of a second (Walsh, 2014). Optimal decision-making abilities are crucial for success in sporting competition (Bar-Eli et al., 2011; Kaya, 2014). Moreover, for the elite athlete, decision making is required under conditions of intense mental and physical pressure (Anshel and Wells, 2000), yet much of the work in this area has largely ignored the highly stressful context in which athletes operate. A number of studies have shown that conditions of elevated pressure influence athletes' decision quality (Kinrade et al., 2015; Smith et al., 2016), response times (Hepler, 2015; Smith et al., 2016) and risk taking (Pighin et al., 2015). However, almost all of this work has been undertaken in nonelite athletes and participants who do not routinely operate under conditions of high stress. Thus, there is very little known about the influence of pressure on decision making in elite athletes. This study investigated the influence of physical performance pressure on decision making in a sample of world-class elite athletes. This allowed an examination of whether findings from the previous work in nonelite athletes extend to those who routinely operate under conditions of high stress. How this work could be applied to improve insight and understanding of decision making among sport professionals is examined. We sought to introduce a categorization of decision making useful to practitioners in sport: gunslingers, poker players, and chickens. Twenty-three elite athletes who compete and have frequent success at an international level (including six Olympic medal winners) performed tasks relating to three categories of decision making under conditions of low and high physical pressure. Decision making under risk was measured with performance on the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT; Rogers et al., 1999), decision making under uncertainty with the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART; Lejuez et al., 2002), and fast reactive responses and interference with the Stroop Task (Stroop, 1935). Performance pressures of physical exhaustion was induced via an exercise protocol consisting of intervals of maximal exertion undertaken on a watt bike. At a group level, under physical pressure elite athletes were faster to respond to control trials on the Stroop Task and to simple probabilistic choices on the CGT. Physical pressure was also found to increase risk taking for decisions where probability outcomes were explicit (on the CGT), but did not affect risk taking when probability outcomes were unknown (on the BART). There were no significant correlations in the degree to which individuals' responses changed under pressure across the three tasks, suggesting that elite athletes did not show consistent responses to physical pressure across measures of decision making. When assessing the applicability of results based on group averages to individual athletes, none of the sample showed an "average" response (within 1 SD of the mean) to pressure across all three decision-making tasks. There are three points of conclusion. First, an immediate scientific point that highlights a failure of transfer of work reported from nonelite athletes to elite athletes in the area of decision making under pressure. Second, a practical conclusion with respect to the application of this work to the elite sporting environment, which highlights the limitations of statistical approaches based on group averages and thus the beneficial use of individualized profiling in feedback sessions. Third, the application of this work in a sports setting is described, in particular the development and implementation of a decision-making taxonomy as a framework to conceptualize and communicate psychological skills among elite sporting professionals. © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impaired anterior insular activation during risky decision making in young adults with internet gaming disorder.

PubMed

Lee, Deokjong; Lee, Junghan; Yoon, Kang Joon; Kee, Namkoong; Jung, Young-Chul

2016-05-25

Internet gaming disorder is defined as excessive and compulsive use of the internet to engage in games that leads to clinically significant psychosocial impairment. We tested the hypothesis that individuals with internet gaming disorder would be less sensitive to high-risk situations and show aberrant brain activation related to risk prediction processing. Young adults with internet gaming disorder underwent functional MRI while performing a risky decision-making task. The healthy control group showed stronger activations within the dorsal attention network and the anterior insular cortex, which were not found in the internet gaming disorder group. Our findings imply that young adults with internet gaming disorder show impaired anterior insular activation during risky decision making, which might make them vulnerable when they need to adapt new behavioral strategies in high-risk situations.

Treatment decision-making in ductal carcinoma in situ: A mixed methods systematic review of women's experiences and information needs.

PubMed

Rutherford, Claudia; Mercieca-Bebber, Rebecca; Butow, Phyllis; Wu, Jenny Liang; King, Madeleine T

2017-09-01

Decision-making in ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is complex due to the heterogeneity of the disease. This study aimed to understand women's experience of making treatment decisions for DCIS, their information and support needs, and factors that influenced decisions. We searched six electronic databases, conference proceedings, and key authors. Two reviewers independently applied inclusion and quality criteria, and extracted findings. Thematic analysis was used to combine and summarise findings. We identified six themes and 28 subthemes from 18 studies. Women with DCIS have knowledge deficits about DCIS, experience anxiety related to information given at diagnosis and the complexity of decision-making, and have misconceptions regarding risks and outcomes of treatment. Women's decisions are influenced by their understanding of risk, the clinical features of their DCIS, and the benefits and harms of treatment options. Women are dissatisfied with the decisional support available. Informed and shared decision-making in this complex decision setting requires clear communication of information specific to DCIS and individual's, as well as decision support for patients and clinicians. This approach would educate patients and clinicians, and assist clinicians in supporting patients to an evidence-based treatment plan that aligns with individual values and pReferences. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Finding the numerical compensation in multiple criteria decision-making problems under fuzzy environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Mahima; Mohanty, B. K.

2017-04-01

In this paper, we have developed a methodology to derive the level of compensation numerically in multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems under fuzzy environment. The degree of compensation is dependent on the tranquility and anxiety level experienced by the decision-maker while taking the decision. Higher tranquility leads to the higher realisation of the compensation whereas the increased level of anxiety reduces the amount of compensation in the decision process. This work determines the level of tranquility (or anxiety) using the concept of fuzzy sets and its various level sets. The concepts of indexing of fuzzy numbers, the risk barriers and the tranquility level of the decision-maker are used to derive his/her risk prone or risk averse attitude of decision-maker in each criterion. The aggregation of the risk levels in each criterion gives us the amount of compensation in the entire MCDM problem. Inclusion of the compensation leads us to model the MCDM problem as binary integer programming problem (BIP). The solution to BIP gives us the compensatory decision to MCDM. The proposed methodology is illustrated through a numerical example.

Knowledge, attitudes and decision-making preferences of men considering participation in the TROG RAVES Prostate Cancer Trial (TROG 08.03).

PubMed

Tesson, Stephanie; Sundaresan, Puma; Ager, Brittany; Butow, Phyllis; Kneebone, Andrew; Costa, Daniel; Woo, Henry; Pearse, Maria; Juraskova, Ilona; Turner, Sandra

2016-04-01

The RAVES (Trans-Tasman Radiation Oncology Group 08.03) randomised controlled trial (RCT), compares adjuvant radiotherapy with early salvage radiotherapy in men with high risk histopathological features at prostatectomy. The RAVES Decision Aid study evaluates the utility of a decision aid for men considering participation in the RAVES RCT. We report the RAVES Decision Aid study participants' attitudes and knowledge regarding RCTs, decision-making preferences and decisional-conflict. Baseline questionnaires assessed knowledge and attitudes towards RCTs and RAVES RCT. Sociodemographic and clinical predictors of knowledge were examined. Involvement in decision-making and difficulties with the decision-making process were assessed using validated tools. 127 men (median age=63years) were recruited through urologists (n=91) and radiation oncologists (n=36). Men preferred collaborative (35%) or semi-active (35%) decision-making roles. Most (>75%) felt the RAVES RCT was worthwhile and important with participation being wise. However, nearly half had high decisional-conflict regarding participation. Scores of objective knowledge regarding RCTs and RAVES RCT were low. Most men with high-risk histopathological features at prostatectomy desire active involvement in decision-making regarding further management. Despite positive attitudes towards RCTs and the RAVES RCT, there were gaps in knowledge and high decisional-conflict surrounding participation. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Dual-Process Approach to Health Risk Decision Making: The Prototype Willingness Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gerrard, Meg; Gibbons, Frederick X.; Houlihan, Amy E.; Stock, Michelle L.; Pomery, Elizabeth A.

2008-01-01

Although dual-process models in cognitive, personality, and social psychology have stimulated a large body of research about analytic and heuristic modes of decision making, these models have seldom been applied to the study of adolescent risk behaviors. In addition, the developmental course of these two kinds of information processing, and their…

Risky Business: An Integrated Institutional Theory for Understanding High-Risk Decision Making in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turner, Lauren A.; Angulo, A. J.

2018-01-01

Lauren A. Turner and A. J. Angulo explore how institutional theory can be applied to explain variance in higher education organizational strategies. Given strong regulatory, normative, and cultural-cognitive pressures to conform, they ask, why do some colleges engage in high-risk decision making? To answer this, they bring together classic and…

What Factors Moderate Self-Other Discrepancies in Decision Making? Results from a Vaccination Scenario.

PubMed

Petrova, Dafina; Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; van der Pligt, Joop

2016-09-20

When we make risky decisions for others, we tend to follow social norms about risks. This often results in making different decisions for others than we would make for ourselves in a similar situation (i.e., self-other discrepancies). In an experiment, we investigated self-other discrepancies in young adults' decisions to purchase a vaccine against a sexually-transmitted virus for themselves or for another person (i.e., the target of the decision). When the target's preferences were in line with social norms, surrogates showed large self-other discrepancies in line with these norms. When the target's preferences were contrary to social norms, surrogates did not show self-other discrepancies in line with these preferences; instead they still followed social norms, F(1, 140) = 21.45, p < .001, η p 2 = .13. Surrogates with lower numeracy, F(2, 128) = 3.44, p = .035, η p 2 = .05, and higher empathy, F(2, 128) = 3.72, p = .027, η p 2 = .06, showed self-other discrepancies more in line with the target's preferences, even when these were contrary to the norm. Surrogates whose own risk attitudes were contrary to social norms showed larger self-other discrepancies, F(1, 128) = 5.38, p = .022, η p 2 = .04. These results demonstrate that perceived social norms about risk can predict self-other discrepancies in risky decisions, even when the target's preferences are known and at odds with the social norm. Further, the surrogates' numeracy, empathy, and propensity to take risks influence the extent to which risky decisions for others resemble risky decisions for oneself.

The Effects of Age, Priming, and Working Memory on Decision-Making.

PubMed

Wood, Meagan; Black, Sheila; Gilpin, Ansley

2016-01-11

In the current study, we examined the effects of priming and personality on risky decision-making while playing the Game of Dice Task (GDT). In the GDT, participants decide how risky they wish to be on each trial. In this particular study prior to playing the GDT, participants were randomly assigned to one of three priming conditions: Risk-Aversive, Risk-Seeking, or Control. In the Risk-Seeking condition, a fictional character benefitted from risky behavior while in the Risk-Aversive condition, a fictional character benefitted from exercising caution. Although not explicitly stated in the instructions, participants need to make "safe" rather than risky choices to optimize performance on the GDT. Participants were also given Daneman and Carpenter's assessment of working memory task. Interestingly, although older adults self-reported being more cautious than younger adults on the Domain Specific Risk Attitude scale (DOSPERT), older adults made riskier decisions than younger adults on the GDT. However, after controlling for working memory, the age differences on the GDT became insignificant, indicating that working memory mediated the relation between age and risky decisions on the GDT.

The Effects of Age, Priming, and Working Memory on Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Wood, Meagan; Black, Sheila; Gilpin, Ansley

2016-01-01

In the current study, we examined the effects of priming and personality on risky decision-making while playing the Game of Dice Task (GDT). In the GDT, participants decide how risky they wish to be on each trial. In this particular study prior to playing the GDT, participants were randomly assigned to one of three priming conditions: Risk-Aversive, Risk-Seeking, or Control. In the Risk-Seeking condition, a fictional character benefitted from risky behavior while in the Risk-Aversive condition, a fictional character benefitted from exercising caution. Although not explicitly stated in the instructions, participants need to make “safe” rather than risky choices to optimize performance on the GDT. Participants were also given Daneman and Carpenter’s assessment of working memory task. Interestingly, although older adults self-reported being more cautious than younger adults on the Domain Specific Risk Attitude scale (DOSPERT), older adults made riskier decisions than younger adults on the GDT. However, after controlling for working memory, the age differences on the GDT became insignificant, indicating that working memory mediated the relation between age and risky decisions on the GDT. PMID:26761023

Divergence and Convergence of Risky Decision Making Across Prospective Gains and Losses: Preferences and Strategies

PubMed Central

Kurnianingsih, Yoanna A.; Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A.

2015-01-01

People choose differently when facing potential gains than when facing potential losses. Clear gross differences in decision making between gains and losses have been empirically demonstrated in numerous studies (e.g., framing effect, risk preference, loss aversion). However, theories maintain that there are strong underlying connections (e.g., reflection effect). We investigated the relationship between gains and losses decision making, examining risk preferences, and choice strategies (the reliance on option information) using a monetary gamble task with interleaved trials. For risk preferences, participants were on average risk averse in the gains domain and risk neutral/seeking in the losses domain. We specifically tested for a theoretically hypothesized correlation between individual risk preferences across the gains and losses domains (the reflection effect), but found no significant relationship in the predicted direction. Interestingly, despite the lack of reflected risk preferences, cross-domain risk preferences were still informative of individual choice behavior. For choice strategies, in both domains participants relied more heavily on the maximizing strategy than the satisficing strategy, with increased reliance on the maximizing strategy in the losses domain. Additionally, while there is no mathematical reliance between the risk preference and strategy metrics, within both domains there were significant relationships between risk preferences and strategies—the more participants relied upon the maximizing strategy the more risk neutral they were (equating value and utility maximization). These results demonstrate the complexity of gains and losses decision making, indicating the apparent contradiction that their underlying cognitive/neural processes are both dissociable and overlapping. PMID:26733779

Divergence and Convergence of Risky Decision Making Across Prospective Gains and Losses: Preferences and Strategies.

PubMed

Kurnianingsih, Yoanna A; Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A

2015-01-01

People choose differently when facing potential gains than when facing potential losses. Clear gross differences in decision making between gains and losses have been empirically demonstrated in numerous studies (e.g., framing effect, risk preference, loss aversion). However, theories maintain that there are strong underlying connections (e.g., reflection effect). We investigated the relationship between gains and losses decision making, examining risk preferences, and choice strategies (the reliance on option information) using a monetary gamble task with interleaved trials. For risk preferences, participants were on average risk averse in the gains domain and risk neutral/seeking in the losses domain. We specifically tested for a theoretically hypothesized correlation between individual risk preferences across the gains and losses domains (the reflection effect), but found no significant relationship in the predicted direction. Interestingly, despite the lack of reflected risk preferences, cross-domain risk preferences were still informative of individual choice behavior. For choice strategies, in both domains participants relied more heavily on the maximizing strategy than the satisficing strategy, with increased reliance on the maximizing strategy in the losses domain. Additionally, while there is no mathematical reliance between the risk preference and strategy metrics, within both domains there were significant relationships between risk preferences and strategies-the more participants relied upon the maximizing strategy the more risk neutral they were (equating value and utility maximization). These results demonstrate the complexity of gains and losses decision making, indicating the apparent contradiction that their underlying cognitive/neural processes are both dissociable and overlapping.

Decision Support and Shared Decision Making About Active Surveillance Versus Active Treatment Among Men Diagnosed with Low-Risk Prostate Cancer: a Pilot Study.

PubMed

Myers, Ronald E; Leader, Amy E; Censits, Jean Hoffman; Trabulsi, Edouard J; Keith, Scott W; Petrich, Anett M; Quinn, Anna M; Den, Robert B; Hurwitz, Mark D; Lallas, Costas D; Hegarty, Sarah E; Dicker, Adam P; Zeigler-Johnson, Charnita M; Giri, Veda N; Ayaz, Hasan; Gomella, Leonard G

2018-02-01

This study aimed to explore the effects of a decision support intervention (DSI) and shared decision making (SDM) on knowledge, perceptions about treatment, and treatment choice among men diagnosed with localized low-risk prostate cancer (PCa). At a multidisciplinary clinic visit, 30 consenting men with localized low-risk PCa completed a baseline survey, had a nurse-mediated online DS session to clarify preference for active surveillance (AS) or active treatment (AT), and met with clinicians for SDM. Participants also completed a follow-up survey at 30 days. We assessed change in treatment knowledge, decisional conflict, and perceptions and identified predictors of AS. At follow-up, participants exhibited increased knowledge (p < 0.001), decreased decisional conflict (p < 0.001), and more favorable perceptions of AS (p = 0.001). Furthermore, 25 of the 30 participants (83 %) initiated AS. Increased family and clinician support predicted this choice (p < 0.001). DSI/SDM prepared patients to make an informed decision. Perceived support of the decision facilitated patient choice of AS.

Spatial and Temporal Flood Risk Assessment for Decision Making Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan-Mohd-Sabki Wan

2018-03-01

Heavy rainfall, adversely impacting inundation areas, depends on the magnitude of the flood. Significantly, location of settlements, infrastructure and facilities in floodplains result in many regions facing flooding risks. A problem faced by the decision maker in an assessment of flood vulnerability and evaluation of adaptation measures is recurrent flooding in the same areas. Identification of recurrent flooding areas and frequency of floods should be priorities for flood risk management. However, spatial and temporal variability become major factors of uncertainty in flood risk management. Therefore, dynamic and spatial characteristics of these changes in flood impact assessment are important in making decisions about the future of infrastructure development and community life. System dynamics (SD) simulation and hydrodynamic modelling are presented as tools for modelling the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and spatial variability. This paper discusses the integration between spatial and temporal information that is required by the decision maker for the identification of multi-criteria decision problems involving multiple stakeholders.

Spatial planning using probabilistic flood maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfonso, Leonardo; Mukolwe, Micah; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

2015-04-01

Probabilistic flood maps account for uncertainty in flood inundation modelling and convey a degree of certainty in the outputs. Major sources of uncertainty include input data, topographic data, model structure, observation data and parametric uncertainty. Decision makers prefer less ambiguous information from modellers; this implies that uncertainty is suppressed to yield binary flood maps. Though, suppressing information may potentially lead to either surprise or misleading decisions. Inclusion of uncertain information in the decision making process is therefore desirable and transparent. To this end, we utilise the Prospect theory and information from a probabilistic flood map to evaluate potential decisions. Consequences related to the decisions were evaluated using flood risk analysis. Prospect theory explains how choices are made given options for which probabilities of occurrence are known and accounts for decision makers' characteristics such as loss aversion and risk seeking. Our results show that decision making is pronounced when there are high gains and loss, implying higher payoffs and penalties, therefore a higher gamble. Thus the methodology may be appropriately considered when making decisions based on uncertain information.

Economic Decisions for Others: An Exception to Loss Aversion Law

PubMed Central

Mengarelli, Flavia; Moretti, Laura; Faralla, Valeria; Vindras, Philippe; Sirigu, Angela

2014-01-01

In everyday life, people often make decisions on behalf of others. The current study investigates whether risk preferences of decision-makers differ when the reference point is no longer their own money but somebody else money. Thirty four healthy participants performed three different monetary risky choices tasks by making decisions for oneself and for another unknown person. Results showed that loss aversion bias was significantly reduced when participants were choosing on behalf of another person compared to when choosing for themselves. The influence of emotions like regret on decision-making may explain these results. We discuss the importance of the sense of responsibility embodied in the emotion of regret in modulating economic decisions for self but not for others. Moreover, our findings are consistent with the Risk-as-feelings hypothesis, suggesting that self-other asymmetrical behavior is due to the extent the decision-maker is affected by the real and emotional consequences of his/her decision. PMID:24454788

Differences in Risk Aversion between Young and Older Adults.

PubMed

Albert, Steven M; Duffy, John

2012-01-15

Research on decision-making strategies among younger and older adults suggests that older adults may be more risk averse than younger people in the case of potential losses. These results mostly come from experimental studies involving gambling paradigms. Since these paradigms involve substantial demands on memory and learning, differences in risk aversion or other features of decision-making attributed to age may in fact reflect age-related declines in cognitive abilities. In the current study, older and younger adults completed a simpler, paired lottery choice task used in the experimental economics literature to elicit risk aversion. A similar approach was used to elicit participants' discount rates. The older adult group was more risk averse than younger adults (p < .05) and also had a higher discount rate (15.6-21.0% vs. 10.3-15.5%, p < .01), indicating lower expected utility from future income. Risk aversion and implied discount rates were weakly correlated. It may be valuable to investigate developmental changes in neural correlates of decision-making across the lifespan.

Differences in Risk Aversion between Young and Older Adults

PubMed Central

Albert, Steven M.; Duffy, John

2013-01-01

Research on decision-making strategies among younger and older adults suggests that older adults may be more risk averse than younger people in the case of potential losses. These results mostly come from experimental studies involving gambling paradigms. Since these paradigms involve substantial demands on memory and learning, differences in risk aversion or other features of decision-making attributed to age may in fact reflect age-related declines in cognitive abilities. In the current study, older and younger adults completed a simpler, paired lottery choice task used in the experimental economics literature to elicit risk aversion. A similar approach was used to elicit participants' discount rates. The older adult group was more risk averse than younger adults (p < .05) and also had a higher discount rate (15.6-21.0% vs. 10.3-15.5%, p < .01), indicating lower expected utility from future income. Risk aversion and implied discount rates were weakly correlated. It may be valuable to investigate developmental changes in neural correlates of decision-making across the lifespan. PMID:24319671

Risk-based decision making for terrorism applications.

PubMed

Dillon, Robin L; Liebe, Robert M; Bestafka, Thomas

2009-03-01

This article describes the anti-terrorism risk-based decision aid (ARDA), a risk-based decision-making approach for prioritizing anti-terrorism measures. The ARDA model was developed as part of a larger effort to assess investments for protecting U.S. Navy assets at risk and determine whether the most effective anti-terrorism alternatives are being used to reduce the risk to the facilities and war-fighting assets. With ARDA and some support from subject matter experts, we examine thousands of scenarios composed of 15 attack modes against 160 facility types on two installations and hundreds of portfolios of 22 mitigation alternatives. ARDA uses multiattribute utility theory to solve some of the commonly identified challenges in security risk analysis. This article describes the process and documents lessons learned from applying the ARDA model for this application.

Shame in decision making under risk conditions: Understanding the effect of transparency.

PubMed

Bonavia, Tomas; Brox-Ponce, Josué

2018-01-01

The role played by the emotion of shame in the area of decision-making in situations of risk has hardly been studied. In this article, we show how the socio-moral emotions and the anticipated feeling of shame associated with different options can determine our decisions, even overriding the cognitive choice tendency proposed by the certainty effect. To do so, we carried out an experiment with university students as participants, dividing them into four experimental conditions. Our findings suggest that people avoid making unethical decisions, both when these decisions are made public to others and when they remain in the private sphere. This result seems to indicate that the main factor in not making unethical decisions is related to the need to avoid transgressing an internal moral standard of behavior, and that the role of transparency is less relevant than expected. However, we propose that, although the effect of transparency is limited in reducing unethical economic decisions, it should continue to be taken into account in theoretical models that address the reasons people behave unethically.

Shame in decision making under risk conditions: Understanding the effect of transparency

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

The role played by the emotion of shame in the area of decision-making in situations of risk has hardly been studied. In this article, we show how the socio-moral emotions and the anticipated feeling of shame associated with different options can determine our decisions, even overriding the cognitive choice tendency proposed by the certainty effect. To do so, we carried out an experiment with university students as participants, dividing them into four experimental conditions. Our findings suggest that people avoid making unethical decisions, both when these decisions are made public to others and when they remain in the private sphere. This result seems to indicate that the main factor in not making unethical decisions is related to the need to avoid transgressing an internal moral standard of behavior, and that the role of transparency is less relevant than expected. However, we propose that, although the effect of transparency is limited in reducing unethical economic decisions, it should continue to be taken into account in theoretical models that address the reasons people behave unethically. PMID:29444107

Enhanced Risk Aversion, But Not Loss Aversion, in Unmedicated Pathological Anxiety.

PubMed

Charpentier, Caroline J; Aylward, Jessica; Roiser, Jonathan P; Robinson, Oliver J

2017-06-15

Anxiety disorders are associated with disruptions in both emotional processing and decision making. As a result, anxious individuals often make decisions that favor harm avoidance. However, this bias could be driven by enhanced aversion to uncertainty about the decision outcome (e.g., risk) or aversion to negative outcomes (e.g., loss). Distinguishing between these possibilities may provide a better cognitive understanding of anxiety disorders and hence inform treatment strategies. To address this question, unmedicated individuals with pathological anxiety (n = 25) and matched healthy control subjects (n = 23) completed a gambling task featuring a decision between a gamble and a safe (certain) option on every trial. Choices on one type of gamble-involving weighing a potential win against a potential loss (mixed)-could be driven by both loss and risk aversion, whereas choices on the other type-featuring only wins (gain only)-were exclusively driven by risk aversion. By fitting a computational prospect theory model to participants' choices, we were able to reliably estimate risk and loss aversion and their respective contribution to gambling decisions. Relative to healthy control subjects, pathologically anxious participants exhibited enhanced risk aversion but equivalent levels of loss aversion. Individuals with pathological anxiety demonstrate clear avoidance biases in their decision making. These findings suggest that this may be driven by a reduced propensity to take risks rather than a stronger aversion to losses. This important clarification suggests that psychological interventions for anxiety should focus on reducing risk sensitivity rather than reducing sensitivity to negative outcomes per se. Copyright © 2017 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of context on risk taking and decision times in obsessive-compulsive disorder.

PubMed

Sip, Kamila E; Muratore, Alexandra F; Stern, Emily R

2016-04-01

Despite the fact that OCD patients show altered decision making in everyday life, few studies have investigated how patients make risky decisions and what contextual factors impact choices. We investigated cognitive context with the use of the "framing effect" task, which investigates decision making based on whether monetarily equivalent choice options are framed in terms of a potential to either lose (lose $20 out of $50) or gain (gain $30 out of $50) money. In addition, we manipulated social context by providing positive or neutral feedback on subjects' choices. Overall, participants were risk taking for options framed in terms of potential loss and risk averse for options framed in terms of potential gain (the classic framing effect). Although OCD patients were generally more risk averse, the effect of the frame on choices did not differ significantly from healthy participants and choices were not impacted by social context. Within OCD patients, greater self-reported indecisiveness was associated with a larger effect of the frame on choices. OCD patients were also significantly slower to make choices in the loss compared to gain frame, an effect that was not observed among healthy participants. Overall, our results suggest that the framing of choice options has a differential effect on decision times but not the actual choices made by OCD patients, and that patients are not sensitive to social feedback when making choices. The correlation between indecisiveness and the framing effect in OCD suggests that further work interrogating the relationship between specific symptoms and decision making among patients may yield new insights into the disorder. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a tool to improve the quality of decision making in atrial fibrillation

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Decision-making about appropriate therapy to reduce the stroke risk associated with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) involves the consideration of trade-offs among the benefits, risks, and inconveniences of different treatment options. The objective of this paper is to describe the development of a decision support tool for NVAF based on the provision of individualized risk estimates for stroke and bleeding and on preparing patients to communicate with their physicians about their values and potential treatment options. Methods We developed a tool based on the principles of the International Patient Decision Aids Standards. The tool focuses on the patient-physician dyad as the decision-making unit and emphasizes improving the interaction between the two. It is built on the recognition that the application of patient values to a specific treatment decision is complex and that the final treatment choice is best made through a process of patient-clinician communication. Results The tool provides education incorporating patients ' illness perceptions to explain the relationship between NVAF and stroke, and then presents individualized risk estimates, derived using separate risk calculators for stroke and bleeding over a clinically meaningful time period (5 years) associated with no treatment, aspirin, and warfarin. Sequelae of both stroke and bleeding outcomes are also described. Patients are encouraged to verbalize how they value the incremental risks and benefits associated with each option and write down specific concerns to address with their physician. A physician prompt to encourage patients to discuss their opinions is included as part of the decision support tool. In pilot testing with 11 participants (mean age 78 ± 9 years, 64% with ≤ high-school education), 8 (72%) rated ease of completion as "very easy," and 9 (81%) rated amount of information as "just right." Conclusions The risks and benefits of different treatment options for reduction of stroke in NVAF vary widely according to patients' comorbidities. This tool facilitates the provision of individualized outcome data and encourages patients to communicate with their physicians about these risks and benefits. Future studies will examine whether use of the tool is associated with improved quality of decision making. PMID:21977943

Conceptual and Empirical Approaches to Financial Decision-making by Older Adults: Results from a Financial Decision-Making Rating Scale

PubMed Central

Lichtenberg, Peter A.; Ocepek-Welikson, Katja; Ficker, Lisa J.; Gross, Evan; Rahman-Filipiak, Analise; Teresi, Jeanne A.

2017-01-01

Objectives The objectives of this study were threefold: (1) to empirically test the conceptual model proposed by the Lichtenberg Financial Decision Rating Scale (LFDRS); (2) to examine the psychometric properties of the LFDRS contextual factors in financial decision-making by investigating both the reliability and convergent validity of the subscales and total scale, and (3) extending previous work on the scale through the collection of normative data on financial decision-making. Methods A convenience sample of 200 independent function and community dwelling older adults underwent cognitive and financial management testing and were interviewed using the LFDRS. Confirmatory factor analysis, internal consistency measures, and hierarchical regression were used in a sample of 200 community-dwelling older adults, all of whom were making or had recently made a significant financial decision. Results Results confirmed the scale’s reliability and supported the conceptual model. Convergent validity analyses indicate that as hypothesized, cognition is a significant predictor of risk scores. Financial management scores, however, were not predictive of decision-making risk scores. Conclusions The psychometric properties of the LFDRS support the scale’s use as it was proposed in Lichtenberg et al., 2015. Clinical Implications The LFDRS instructions and scale are provided for clinicians to use in financial capacity assessments. PMID:29077531

Reduced activation in the ventral striatum during probabilistic decision-making in patients in an at-risk mental state

PubMed Central

Rausch, Franziska; Mier, Daniela; Eifler, Sarah; Fenske, Sabrina; Schirmbeck, Frederike; Englisch, Susanne; Schilling, Claudia; Meyer-Lindenberg, Andreas; Kirsch, Peter; Zink, Mathias

2015-01-01

Background Patients with schizophrenia display metacognitive impairments, such as hasty decision-making during probabilistic reasoning — the “jumping to conclusion” bias (JTC). Our recent fMRI study revealed reduced activations in the right ventral striatum (VS) and the ventral tegmental area (VTA) to be associated with decision-making in patients with schizophrenia. It is unclear whether these functional alterations occur in the at-risk mental state (ARMS). Methods We administered the classical beads task and fMRI among ARMS patients and healthy controls matched for age, sex, education and premorbid verbal intelligence. None of the ARMS patients was treated with antipsychotics. Both tasks request probabilistic decisions after a variable amount of stimuli. We evaluated activation during decision-making under certainty versus uncertainty and the process of final decision-making. Results We included 24 AMRS patients and 24 controls in our study. Compared with controls, ARMS patients tended to draw fewer beads and showed significantly more JTC bias in the classical beads task, mirroring findings in patients with schizophrenia. During fMRI, ARMS patients did not demonstrate JTC bias on the behavioural level, but showed a significant hypoactivation in the right VS during the decision stage. Limitations Owing to the cross-sectional design of the study, results are constrained to a better insight into the neurobiology of risk constellations, but not pre-psychotic stages. Nine of the ARMS patients were treated with antidepressants and/or lorazepam. Conclusion As in patients with schizophrenia, a striatal hypoactivation was found in ARMS patients. Confounding effects of antipsychotic medication can be excluded. Our findings indicate that error prediction signalling and reward anticipation may be linked to striatal dysfunction during prodromal stages and should be examined for their utility in predicting transition risk. PMID:25622039

Reduced activation in the ventral striatum during probabilistic decision-making in patients in an at-risk mental state.

PubMed

Rausch, Franziska; Mier, Daniela; Eifler, Sarah; Fenske, Sabrina; Schirmbeck, Frederike; Englisch, Susanne; Schilling, Claudia; Meyer-Lindenberg, Andreas; Kirsch, Peter; Zink, Mathias

2015-05-01

Patients with schizophrenia display metacognitive impairments, such as hasty decision-making during probabilistic reasoning - the "jumping to conclusion" bias (JTC). Our recent fMRI study revealed reduced activations in the right ventral striatum (VS) and the ventral tegmental area (VTA) to be associated with decision-making in patients with schizophrenia. It is unclear whether these functional alterations occur in the at-risk mental state (ARMS). We administered the classical beads task and fMRI among ARMS patients and healthy controls matched for age, sex, education and premorbid verbal intelligence. None of the ARMS patients was treated with antipsychotics. Both tasks request probabilistic decisions after a variable amount of stimuli. We evaluated activation during decision-making under certainty versus uncertainty and the process of final decision-making. We included 24 AMRS patients and 24 controls in our study. Compared with controls, ARMS patients tended to draw fewer beads and showed significantly more JTC bias in the classical beads task, mirroring findings in patients with schizophrenia. During fMRI, ARMS patients did not demonstrate JTC bias on the behavioural level, but showed a significant hypoactivation in the right VS during the decision stage. Owing to the cross-sectional design of the study, results are constrained to a better insight into the neurobiology of risk constellations, but not prepsychotic stages. Nine of the ARMS patients were treated with antidepressants and/or lorazepam. As in patients with schizophrenia, a striatal hypoactivation was found in ARMS patients. Confounding effects of antipsychotic medication can be excluded. Our findings indicate that error prediction signalling and reward anticipation may be linked to striatal dysfunction during prodromal stages and should be examined for their utility in predicting transition risk.

Fuzzy methods in decision making process - A particular approach in manufacturing systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coroiu, A. M.

2015-11-01

We are living in a competitive environment, so we can see and understand that the most of manufacturing firms do the best in order to accomplish meeting demand, increasing quality, decreasing costs, and delivery rate. In present a stake point of interest is represented by the development of fuzzy technology. A particular approach for this is represented through the development of methodologies to enhance the ability to managed complicated optimization and decision making aspects involving non-probabilistic uncertainty with the reason to understand, development, and practice the fuzzy technologies to be used in fields such as economic, engineering, management, and societal problems. Fuzzy analysis represents a method for solving problems which are related to uncertainty and vagueness; it is used in multiple areas, such as engineering and has applications in decision making problems, planning and production. As a definition for decision making process we can use the next one: result of mental processes based upon cognitive process with a main role in the selection of a course of action among several alternatives. Every process of decision making can be represented as a result of a final choice and the output can be represented as an action or as an opinion of choice. Different types of uncertainty can be discovered in a wide variety of optimization and decision making problems related to planning and operation of power systems and subsystems. The mixture of the uncertainty factor in the construction of different models serves for increasing their adequacy and, as a result, the reliability and factual efficiency of decisions based on their analysis. Another definition of decision making process which came to illustrate and sustain the necessity of using fuzzy method: the decision making is an approach of choosing a strategy among many different projects in order to achieve some purposes and is formulated as three different models: high risk decision, usual risk decision and low risk decision - some specific formulas of fuzzy logic. The fuzzy set concepts has some certain parameterization features which are certain extensions of crisp and fuzzy relations respectively and have a rich potential for application to the decision making problems. The proposed approach from this paper presents advantages of fuzzy approach, in comparison with other paradigm and presents a particular way in which fuzzy logic can emerge in decision making process and planning process with implication, as a simulation, in manufacturing - involved in measuring performance of advanced manufacturing systems. Finally, an example is presented to illustrate our simulation.

AHP for Risk Management Based on Expected Utility Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azuma, Rumiko; Miyagi, Hayao

This paper presents a model of decision-making considering the risk assessment. The conventional evaluation in AHP is considered to be a kind of utility. When dealing with the risk, however, it is necessary to consider the probability of damage. In order to take risk into decision-making problem, we construct AHP based on expected utility. The risk is considered as a related element of criterion rather than criterion itself. The expected utility is integrated, considering that satisfaction is positive utility and damage by risk is negative utility. Then, evaluation in AHP is executed using the expected utility.

Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Shuttle Decision Making Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyer, Roger L.; Hamlin, Teri, L.

2011-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to assist in the decision making for the shuttle design and operation. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and disciplined approach to identifying and analyzing risk in complex systems and/or processes that seeks answers to three basic questions: (i.e., what can go wrong? what is the likelihood of these occurring? and what are the consequences that could result if these occur?) The purpose of the Shuttle PRA (SPRA) is to provide a useful risk management tool for the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to identify strengths and possible weaknesses in the Shuttle design and operation. SPRA was initially developed to support upgrade decisions, but has evolved into a tool that supports Flight Readiness Reviews (FRR) and near real-time flight decisions. Examples of the use of PRA for the shuttle are reviewed.

Maternal depression and trajectories of child internalizing and externalizing problems: the roles of child decision making and working memory.

PubMed

Flouri, E; Ruddy, A; Midouhas, E

2017-04-01

Maternal depression may affect the emotional/behavioural outcomes of children with normal neurocognitive functioning less severely than it does those without. To guide prevention and intervention efforts, research must specify which aspects of a child's cognitive functioning both moderate the effect of maternal depression and are amenable to change. Working memory and decision making may be amenable to change and are so far unexplored as moderators of this effect. Our sample was 17 160 Millennium Cohort Study children. We analysed trajectories of externalizing (conduct and hyperactivity) and internalizing (emotional and peer) problems, measured with the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire at the ages 3, 5, 7 and 11 years, using growth curve models. We characterized maternal depression, also time-varying at these ages, by a high score on the K6. Working memory was measured with the Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery Spatial Working Memory Task, and decision making (risk taking and quality of decision making) with the Cambridge Gambling Task, both at age 11 years. Maternal depression predicted both the level and the growth of problems. Risk taking and poor-quality decision making were related positively to externalizing and non-significantly to internalizing problems. Poor working memory was related to both problem types. Neither decision making nor working memory explained the effect of maternal depression on child internalizing/externalizing problems. Importantly, risk taking amplified the effect of maternal depression on internalizing problems, and poor working memory that on internalizing and conduct problems. Impaired decision making and working memory in children amplify the adverse effect of maternal depression on, particularly, internalizing problems.

Gunslingers, poker players, and chickens 2: Decision-making under physical performance pressure in subelite athletes.

PubMed

Parkin, Beth L; Walsh, Vincent

2017-01-01

Having investigated the influence of acute physical exhaustion on decision-making in world-class elite athletes in Parkin et al. (2017), here a similar method is applied to subelite athletes. These subelite athletes were enrolled on a Team GB talent development program and were undergoing training for possible Olympic competition in 4-8 years. They differ from elite athletes examined previously according to expertise and age. While considered elite (Swann et al., 2015), the subelite athletes had approximately 8 years fewer sporting experience and were yet to obtain sustained success on the international stage. Additionally, the average age of the subelite sample is 20 years; thus, they are still undergoing the behavioral, cognitive, and neuronal changes that occur during the transition from late adolescence to young adulthood (Blakemore and Robbins, 2012). Previous work has used broad definitions of elite status in sport, and as such overlooked different categories within the spectrum of elite athletes (Swann et al., 2015). Therefore it is important to consider subelite athletes as a discrete point on the developmental trajectory of elite sporting expertise. This work aims to investigate the influence of physical pressure on key indicators of decision-making in subelite athletes. It forms part of a wider project examining decision-making across different stages of the developmental trajectory in elite sport. In doing so, it aims to examine how to apply and develop psychological insights useful to an elite sporting environment. 32 subelite athletes (18 males, mean age: 20 years) participated in the study. Performance across three categories of decision-making was assessed under conditions of low and high physical pressure. Decision-making under risk was measured with performance of the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT; Rogers et al., 1999), decision-making under uncertainty with the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART; Lejuez et al., 2002), and fast reactive responses and inhibition via the Stop Signal Reaction Time Task (SSRT; Logan, 1994). Physical exhaustion was induced via intervals of maximal exertion exercise on a wattbike. Under pressure subelite athletes showed increased risk taking for both decisions where probability outcomes were explicit (on the CGT), and those where probability outcomes were unknown (on the BART). Despite making quicker decisions under pressure, with fewer errors, on the CGT, subelite athletes showed a reduced ability to optimally adjust betting behavior according to reward and loss contingencies. Fast reactive responses to perceptual stimuli and response inhibition did not change as a result of physical pressure. Individual responses to pressure showed a negative correlation in that a decrease in reaction times on the SSRT Task under pressure was associated with an increase in risk taking on the BART. When assessing the applicability of results based on group averages to individual athletes, 17% of the sample showed an "average" response (within 1 SD of the mean) to pressure across all three decision-making tasks. Indicators of decision-making in a sample of subelite athletes are influenced by physical pressure, with a shift toward increased indiscriminate risk taking. The influence that physical pressure has on decision-making was different to that observed in world-class elite athletes; this highlights the importance of distinguishing between athletes at the elite level (Swann et al., 2015). The application of this work to a novel subgroup of elite athletes, including the implementation of a decision-making taxonomy, is discussed. © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Differences in neural activation as a function of risk-taking task parameters.

PubMed

Congdon, Eliza; Bato, Angelica A; Schonberg, Tom; Mumford, Jeanette A; Karlsgodt, Katherine H; Sabb, Fred W; London, Edythe D; Cannon, Tyrone D; Bilder, Robert M; Poldrack, Russell A

2013-01-01

Despite evidence supporting a relationship between impulsivity and naturalistic risk-taking, the relationship of impulsivity with laboratory-based measures of risky decision-making remains unclear. One factor contributing to this gap in our understanding is the degree to which different risky decision-making tasks vary in their details. We conducted an fMRI investigation of the Angling Risk Task (ART), which is an improved behavioral measure of risky decision-making. In order to examine whether the observed pattern of neural activation was specific to the ART or generalizable, we also examined correlates of the Balloon Analog Risk Taking (BART) task in the same sample of 23 healthy adults. Exploratory analyses were conducted to examine the relationship between neural activation, performance, impulsivity and self-reported risk-taking. While activation in a valuation network was associated with reward tracking during the ART but not the BART, increased fronto-cingulate activation was seen during risky choice trials in the BART as compared to the ART. Thus, neural activation during risky decision-making trials differed between the two tasks, and this observation was likely driven by differences in task parameters, namely the absence vs. presence of ambiguity and/or stationary vs. increasing probability of loss on the ART and BART, respectively. Exploratory association analyses suggest that sensitivity of neural response to the magnitude of potential reward during the ART was associated with a suboptimal performance strategy, higher scores on a scale of dysfunctional impulsivity (DI) and a greater likelihood of engaging in risky behaviors, while this pattern was not seen for the BART. Our results suggest that the ART is decomposable and associated with distinct patterns of neural activation; this represents a preliminary step toward characterizing a behavioral measure of risky decision-making that may support a better understanding of naturalistic risk-taking.

Greater Risk-Sensitivity of Dorsolateral Prefrontal Cortex in Young Smokers than in Nonsmokers

PubMed Central

Galván, Adriana; Schonberg, Tom; Mumford, Jeanette; Kohno, Milky; Poldrack, Russell A.; London, Edythe D.

2013-01-01

Rationale Despite a national reduction in the prevalence of cigarette smoking, ~19% of the adult U.S. population persists in this behavior, with the highest prevalence among 18–25-year-olds. Given that the choice to smoke imposes a known health risk, clarification of brain function related to decision-making, particularly involving risk-taking, in smokers may inform prevention and smoking cessation strategies. Objectives This study aimed to compare brain function related to decision-making in young smokers and nonsmokers. Methods The Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART) is a computerized risky decision-making task in which participants pump virtual balloons, each pump associated with an incremental increase in potential payoff on a given trial but also with greater risk of balloon explosion and loss of payoff. We used this task to compare brain activation associated with risky decision-making in smokers (n=18) and nonsmokers (n=25) while they performed the BART during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). The participants were young men and women, 17–21 years of age. Results Risk level (number of pumps) modulated brain activation in the right dorsolateral and ventrolateral prefrontal cortices more in smokers than in nonsmokers; and smoking severity (Heaviness of Smoking Index) was positively related to this modulation in an adjacent frontal region. Conclusions Given evidence for involvement of the right dorsolateral and ventrolateral prefrontal cortices in inhibitory control, these findings suggest that young smokers have a different contribution of prefrontal cortical substrates to risky decision-making than nonsmokers. Future studies are warranted to determine whether the observed neurobiological differences precede or result from smoking. PMID:23644912

Patient centered decision making: use of conjoint analysis to determine risk-benefit trade-offs for preference sensitive treatment choices.

PubMed

Wilson, Leslie; Loucks, Aimee; Bui, Christine; Gipson, Greg; Zhong, Lixian; Schwartzburg, Amy; Crabtree, Elizabeth; Goodin, Douglas; Waubant, Emmanuelle; McCulloch, Charles

2014-09-15

Understanding patient preferences facilitates shared decision-making and focuses on patient-centered outcomes. Little is known about relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) patient preferences for disease modifying therapies (DMTs). We use choice based conjoint (CBC) analysis to calculate patient preferences for risk/benefit trade-offs for hypothetical DMTs. Patients with RRMS were surveyed between 2012 and 2013. Our CBC survey mimicked the decision-making process and trade-offs of patients choosing DMTs, based on all possible DMT attributes. Mixed-effects logistic regression analyzed preferences. We estimated maximum acceptable risk trade-offs for various DMT benefits. Severe side-effect risks had the biggest impact on patient preference with a 1% risk, decreasing patient preference five-fold compared to no risk. (OR=0.22, p<0.001). Symptom improvement was the most preferred benefit (OR=3.68, p<0.001), followed by prevention of progression of 10 years (OR=2.4, p<0.001). Daily oral administration had the third highest DMT preference rating (OR=2.08, p<0.001). Patients were willing to accept 0.08% severe risk for a year delayed relapse, and 0.22% for 4 vs 2 year prevented progression. We provided patient preferences and risk-benefit trade-offs for attributes of all available DMTs. Evaluation of patient preferences is a key step in shared decision making and may significantly impact early drug initiation and compliance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Understanding clinical and non-clinical decisions under uncertainty: a scenario-based survey.

PubMed

Simianu, Vlad V; Grounds, Margaret A; Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E; Ehlers, Anne P; Agrawal, Nidhi; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Flaxman, Abraham D; Flum, David R

2016-12-01

Prospect theory suggests that when faced with an uncertain outcome, people display loss aversion by preferring to risk a greater loss rather than incurring certain, lesser cost. Providing probability information improves decision making towards the economically optimal choice in these situations. Clinicians frequently make decisions when the outcome is uncertain, and loss aversion may influence choices. This study explores the extent to which prospect theory, loss aversion, and probability information in a non-clinical domain explains clinical decision making under uncertainty. Four hundred sixty two participants (n = 117 non-medical undergraduates, n = 113 medical students, n = 117 resident trainees, and n = 115 medical/surgical faculty) completed a three-part online task. First, participants completed an iced-road salting task using temperature forecasts with or without explicit probability information. Second, participants chose between less or more risk-averse ("defensive medicine") decisions in standardized scenarios. Last, participants chose between recommending therapy with certain outcomes or risking additional years gained or lost. In the road salting task, the mean expected value for decisions made by clinicians was better than for non-clinicians(-$1,022 vs -$1,061; <0.001). Probability information improved decision making for all participants, but non-clinicians improved more (mean improvement of $64 versus $33; p = 0.027). Mean defensive decisions decreased across training level (medical students 2.1 ± 0.9, residents 1.6 ± 0.8, faculty1.6 ± 1.1; p-trend < 0.001) and prospect-theory-concordant decisions increased (25.4%, 33.9%, and 40.7%;p-trend = 0.016). There was no relationship identified between road salting choices with defensive medicine and prospect-theory-concordant decisions. All participants made more economically-rational decisions when provided explicit probability information in a non-clinical domain. However, choices in the non-clinical domain were not related to prospect-theory concordant decision making and risk aversion tendencies in the clinical domain. Recognizing this discordance may be important when applying prospect theory to interventions aimed at improving clinical care.

Environmental change challenges decision-making during post-market environmental monitoring of transgenic crops.

PubMed

Sanvido, Olivier; Romeis, Jörg; Bigler, Franz

2011-12-01

The ability to decide what kind of environmental changes observed during post-market environmental monitoring of genetically modified (GM) crops represent environmental harm is an essential part of most legal frameworks regulating the commercial release of GM crops into the environment. Among others, such decisions are necessary to initiate remedial measures or to sustain claims of redress linked to environmental liability. Given that consensus on criteria to evaluate 'environmental harm' has not yet been found, there are a number of challenges for risk managers when interpreting GM crop monitoring data for environmental decision-making. In the present paper, we argue that the challenges in decision-making have four main causes. The first three causes relate to scientific data collection and analysis, which have methodological limits. The forth cause concerns scientific data evaluation, which is controversial among the different stakeholders involved in the debate on potential impacts of GM crops on the environment. This results in controversy how the effects of GM crops should be valued and what constitutes environmental harm. This controversy may influence decision-making about triggering corrective actions by regulators. We analyse all four challenges and propose potential strategies for addressing them. We conclude that environmental monitoring has its limits in reducing uncertainties remaining from the environmental risk assessment prior to market approval. We argue that remaining uncertainties related to adverse environmental effects of GM crops would probably be assessed in a more efficient and rigorous way during pre-market risk assessment. Risk managers should acknowledge the limits of environmental monitoring programmes as a tool for decision-making.

Decision Making and Learning while Taking Sequential Risks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pleskac, Timothy J.

2008-01-01

A sequential risk-taking paradigm used to identify real-world risk takers invokes both learning and decision processes. This article expands the paradigm to a larger class of tasks with different stochastic environments and different learning requirements. Generalizing a Bayesian sequential risk-taking model to the larger set of tasks clarifies…

Quantitative Decision Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baldwin, Grover H.

The use of quantitative decision making tools provides the decision maker with a range of alternatives among which to decide, permits acceptance and use of the optimal solution, and decreases risk. Training line administrators in the use of these tools can help school business officials obtain reliable information upon which to base district…

Workshop: Community Based Environmental Decision Making, Proceedings of the Fifth Workshop in the Environmental Policy and Economics Workshop Series (2000)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Proceedings from a one-day workshop cosponsored by US EPA Office of Economy and Environment and National Center for Environmental Research and the National Science Foundation Decision, Risk,and Management Science Program on community-based decision making

Testicular tissue cryopreservation in prepubertal male children: an analysis of parental decision-making.

PubMed

Ginsberg, Jill P; Li, Yimei; Carlson, Claire A; Gracia, Clarisa R; Hobbie, Wendy L; Miller, Victoria A; Mulhall, John; Shnorhavorian, Margarett; Brinster, Ralph L; Kolon, Thomas F

2014-09-01

Infertility is an unfortunate treatment-related consequence for some pediatric malignancies as well as some non-malignant conditions treated with stem cell transplant. Unlike pubertal males, prepubertal males cannot produce semen for cryopreservation. This manuscript reports on the acceptability and safety of a multi-institutional protocol for offering testicular tissue cryopreservation to families of prepubertal male children at highest risk for infertility. Data on decision influences, decision-making control, and emotional state when considering this option are described. Prepubertal males facing gonadotoxic therapy were offered testicular cryopreservation. Post-biopsy, patients were followed for acute side effects. In addition, parents and patients were asked to complete questionnaires, whether or not they chose to cryopreserve tissue. Seventy-four prepubertal male children were approached. Fifty-seven families (77%) consented to the testicular biopsy; 48 of 57 underwent the procedure. There was one post-operative side effect. Parents who agreed to testicular cryopreservation and those that did not felt in control of this decision. Parents who consented to the biopsy and refusers were not deterred by the experimental nature of the protocol. An important decision-making influence was the risk of the biopsy. Biopsy and cryopreservation of testicular tissue from prepubertal male children was performed successfully and safely at three institutions. Parents faced with this option at diagnosis can make an informed decision and weigh carefully the risks and benefits. Although asked to make a decision soon after they were given a difficult diagnosis, parents uniformly felt in control of this decision. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Caregivers’ perspectives on decision making about lung transplantation in cystic fibrosis

PubMed Central

Dellon, Elisabeth P.; Shores, Mitchell D.; Nelson, Katherine I.; Wolfe, Joanne; Noah, Terry L.; Hanson, Laura C.

2013-01-01

Context Lung transplantation extends survival for some patients with advanced cystic fibrosis, but it is complicated, has many potential risks, and its outcomes are difficult to predict. No standards exist for informed decision making about transplantation. Objective To assess decision making from the perspective of caregivers of patients who faced the transplant decision before dying of cystic fibrosis or transplant complications. Design Semistructured interviews with descriptive and qualitative content analysis. Participants Twenty-eight caregivers of patients with cystic fibrosis who received care at our center and died between 1996 and 2006. Results Of 28 patients who considered lung transplantation, 19 (68%) received transplants, 6 (21%) died while waiting for transplant, and 3 (11%) declined transplant. Three caregivers (11%) thought that the patient did not fully understand the reason for transplant referral. Five (18%) thought that the patient did not fully understand potential risks. Ten (36%) thought that alternatives were not fully understood. The only alternatives to transplant identified, progressive illness and the possibility of earlier death without transplant, were unacceptable to most. Thirteen caregivers (46%) reported that the patient thought that declining transplant was not an option. Caregivers described the decision as “easy” for 19 (68%), often expressing a sentiment of “do or die.” Those who described the decision as “easy” recalled fewer elements of informed decision making. Conclusions From caregivers’ reports, patients with cystic fibrosis may not fully understand risks of and alternatives to lung transplantation. Because a strong desire to prolong life necessitates honest communication about potential outcomes, interventions are needed to facilitate high-quality decision making. PMID:20050454

Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision making among a group of federal fire managers

Treesearch

Robyn S. Wilson; Patricia L. Winter; Lynn A. Maguire; Timothy Ascher

2011-01-01

Managing wildfire events to achieve multiple management objectives involves a high degree of decision complexity and uncertainty, increasing the likelihood that decisions will be informed by experience-based heuristics triggered by available cues at the time of the decision. The research reported here tests the prevalence of three risk-based biases among 206...

Assessing Affective and Deliberative Decision-Making: Adaptation of the Columbia Card Task to Brazilian Portuguese.

PubMed

Kluwe-Schiavon, Bruno; Sanvicente-Vieira, Breno; Viola, Thiago W; Veiga, Eduardo; Bortolotto, Vanessa; Grassi-Oliveira, Rodrigo

2015-11-20

The ability to predict reward and punishment is essential for decision-making and the ability to learn about an ever-changing environment. Therefore, efforts have been made in understanding the mechanisms underlying decision-making, especially regarding how affective and deliberative processes interact with risk behavior. To adapt to Brazilian Portuguese the Columbia Card Task (CCT) and investigate affective and deliberative processes involved in decision-making. This study had two main phases: (1) a transcultural adaptation and (2) a pilot study. The feedback manipulation among the three conditions of CCT had an effect on the risk-taking level (p < .005, ES = .201). In addition, the feedback manipulation among the three conditions of CCT had an effect on the information use at both the individual and group levels. Further, a linear regression suggested that the use of information, indicated by the advantageous level of the scenarios, predict the number of cards chosen R 2 = .029, p < .001, accounting for 17% of the variance. The Brazilian CCT performs well and is a versatile method for the assessment of affective and deliberative decision-making under risk according to different feedback manipulation scenarios. This study goes further, comparing electrodermal activity during hot and warm conditions and addressing an advantageous level index analysis to asses deliberative processing.

Approach to risk identification in undifferentiated mental disorders

PubMed Central

Silveira, José; Rockman, Patricia; Fulford, Casey; Hunter, Jon

2016-01-01

Abstract Objective To provide primary care physicians with a novel approach to risk identification and related clinical decision making in the management of undifferentiated mental disorders. Sources of information We conducted a review of the literature in PubMed, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Google Scholar using the search terms diagnostic uncertainty, diagnosis, risk identification, risk assessment/methods, risk, risk factors, risk management/methods, cognitive biases and psychiatry, decision making, mental disorders/diagnosis, clinical competence, evidence-based medicine, interviews as topic, psychiatry/education, psychiatry/methods, documentation/methods, forensic psychiatry/education, forensic psychiatry/methods, mental disorders/classification, mental disorders/psychology, violence/prevention and control, and violence/psychology. Main message Mental disorders are a large component of practice in primary care and often present in an undifferentiated manner, remaining so for prolonged periods. The challenging search for a diagnosis can divert attention from risk identification, as diagnosis is commonly presumed to be necessary before treatment can begin. This might inadvertently contribute to preventable adverse events. Focusing on salient aspects of the patient presentation related to risk should be prioritized. This article presents a novel approach to organizing patient information to assist risk identification and decision making in the management of patients with undifferentiated mental disorders. Conclusion A structured approach can help physicians to manage the clinical uncertainty common to risk identification in patients with mental disorders and cope with the common anxiety and cognitive biases that affect priorities in risk-related decision making. By focusing on risk, functional impairments, and related symptoms using a novel framework, physicians can meet their patients’ immediate needs while continuing the search for diagnostic clarity and long-term treatment. PMID:27965330

Approach to risk identification in undifferentiated mental disorders.

PubMed

Silveira, José; Rockman, Patricia; Fulford, Casey; Hunter, Jon

2016-12-01

To provide primary care physicians with a novel approach to risk identification and related clinical decision making in the management of undifferentiated mental disorders. We conducted a review of the literature in PubMed, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Google Scholar using the search terms diagnostic uncertainty, diagnosis, risk identification, risk assessment/methods, risk, risk factors, risk management/methods, cognitive biases and psychiatry, decision making, mental disorders/diagnosis, clinical competence, evidence-based medicine, interviews as topic, psychiatry/education, psychiatry/methods, documentation/methods, forensic psychiatry/education, forensic psychiatry/methods, mental disorders/classification, mental disorders/psychology, violence/prevention and control, and violence/psychology. Mental disorders are a large component of practice in primary care and often present in an undifferentiated manner, remaining so for prolonged periods. The challenging search for a diagnosis can divert attention from risk identification, as diagnosis is commonly presumed to be necessary before treatment can begin. This might inadvertently contribute to preventable adverse events. Focusing on salient aspects of the patient presentation related to risk should be prioritized. This article presents a novel approach to organizing patient information to assist risk identification and decision making in the management of patients with undifferentiated mental disorders. A structured approach can help physicians to manage the clinical uncertainty common to risk identification in patients with mental disorders and cope with the common anxiety and cognitive biases that affect priorities in risk-related decision making. By focusing on risk, functional impairments, and related symptoms using a novel framework, physicians can meet their patients' immediate needs while continuing the search for diagnostic clarity and long-term treatment. Copyright© the College of Family Physicians of Canada.

21 CFR 312.84 - Risk-benefit analysis in review of marketing applications for drugs to treat life-threatening and...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... making the final decision on approvability. As part of this evaluation, consistent with the statement of.... (b) In making decisions on whether to grant marketing approval for products that have been the... 21 Food and Drugs 5 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk-benefit analysis in review of marketing...

Variation in clinical decision-making for induction of labour: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Nippita, Tanya A; Porter, Maree; Seeho, Sean K; Morris, Jonathan M; Roberts, Christine L

2017-09-22

Unexplained variation in induction of labour (IOL) rates exist between hospitals, even after accounting for casemix and hospital differences. We aimed to explore factors that influence clinical decision-making for IOL that may be contributing to the variation in IOL rates between hospitals. We undertook a qualitative study involving semi-structured, audio-recorded interviews with obstetricians and midwives. Using purposive sampling, participants known to have diverse opinions on IOL were selected from ten Australian maternity hospitals (based on differences in hospital IOL rate, size, location and case-mix complexities). Transcripts were indexed, coded, and analysed using the Framework Approach to identify main themes and subthemes. Forty-five participants were interviewed (21 midwives, 24 obstetric medical staff). Variations in decision-making for IOL were based on the obstetrician's perception of medical risk in the pregnancy (influenced by the obstetrician's personality and knowledge), their care relationship with the woman, how they involved the woman in decision-making, and resource availability. The role of a 'gatekeeper' in the procedural aspects of arranging an IOL also influenced decision-making. There was wide variation in the clinical decision-making practices of obstetricians and less accountability for decision-making in hospitals with a high IOL rate, with the converse occurring in hospitals with low IOL rates. Improved communication, standardised risk assessment and accountability for IOL offer potential for reducing variation in hospital IOL rates.

Development of a shared decision-making tool to assist patients and clinicians with decisions on oral anticoagulant treatment for atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Kaiser, Karen; Cheng, Wendy Y; Jensen, Sally; Clayman, Marla L; Thappa, Andrew; Schwiep, Frances; Chawla, Anita; Goldberger, Jeffrey J; Col, Nananda; Schein, Jeff

2015-12-01

Decision aids (DAs) are increasingly used to operationalize shared decision-making (SDM) but their development is not often described. Decisions about oral anticoagulants (OACs) for atrial fibrillation (AF) involve a trade-off between lowering stroke risk and increasing OAC-associated bleeding risk, and consideration of how treatment affects lifestyle. The benefits and risks of OACs hinge upon a patient's risk factors for stroke and bleeding and how they value these outcomes. We present the development of a DA about AF that estimates patients' risks for stroke and bleeding and assesses their preferences for outcomes. Based on a literature review and expert discussions, we identified stroke and major bleeding risk prediction models and embedded them into risk assessment modules. We identified the most important factors in choosing OAC treatment (warfarin used as the default reference OAC) through focus group discussions with AF patients who had used warfarin and clinician interviews. We then designed preference assessment and introductory modules accordingly. We integrated these modules into a prototype AF SDM tool and evaluated its usability through interviews. Our tool included four modules: (1) introduction to AF and OAC treatment risks and benefits; (2) stroke risk assessment; (3) bleeding risk assessment; and (4) preference assessment. Interactive risk calculators estimated patient-specific stroke and bleeding risks; graphics were developed to communicate these risks. After cognitive interviews, the content was improved. The final AF tool calculates patient-specific risks and benefits of OAC treatment and couples these estimates with patient preferences to improve clinical decision-making. The AF SDM tool may help patients choose whether OAC treatment is best for them and represents a patient-centered, integrative approach to educate patients on the benefits and risks of OAC treatment. Future research is needed to evaluate this tool in a real-world setting. The development process presented can be applied to similar SDM tools.

Ecologically rational choice and the structure of the environment.

PubMed

Pleskac, Timothy J; Hertwig, Ralph

2014-10-01

In life, risk is reward and vice versa. Unfortunately, the big rewards people desire are relatively unlikely to occur. This relationship between risk and reward or probabilities and payoffs seems obvious to the financial community and to laypeople alike. Yet theories of decision making have largely ignored it. We conducted an ecological analysis of life's gambles, ranging from the domains of roulette and life insurance to scientific publications and artificial insemination. Across all domains, payoffs and probabilities proved intimately tied, with payoff magnitudes signaling their probabilities. In some cases, the constraints of the market result in these two core elements of choice being related via a power function; in other cases, other factors such as social norms appear to produce the inverse relationship between risks and rewards. We offer evidence that decision makers exploit this relationship in the form of a heuristic--the risk-reward heuristic--to infer the probability of a payoff during decisions under uncertainty. We demonstrate how the heuristic can help explain observed ambiguity aversion. We further show how this ecological relationship can inform other aspects of decision making, particularly the approach of using monetary lotteries to study choice under risk and uncertainty. Taken together, these findings suggest that theories of decision making need to model not only the decision process but also the environment to which the process is adapted.

Risk, rationality, and regret: responding to the uncertainty of childhood food anaphylaxis.

PubMed

Hu, W; Kerridge, I; Kemp, A

2005-06-01

Risk and uncertainty are unavoidable in clinical medicine. In the case of childhood food allergy, the dysphoric experience of uncertainty is heightened by the perception of unpredictable danger to young children. Medicine has tended to respond to uncertainty with forms of rational decision making. Rationality cannot, however, resolve uncertainty and provides an insufficient account of risk. This paper compares the medical and parental accounts of two peanut allergic toddlers to highlight the value of emotions in decision making. One emotion in particular, regret, assists in explaining the actions taken to prevent allergic reactions, given the diffuse nature of responsibility for children. In this light, the assumption that doctors make rational judgments while patients have emotion led preferences is a false dichotomy. Reconciling medical and lay accounts requires acknowledgement of the interrelationship between the rational and the emotional, and may lead to more appropriate clinical decision making under conditions of uncertainty.

Modelling risk aversion to support decision-making for controlling zoonotic livestock diseases.

PubMed

van Asseldonk, M A P M; Bergevoet, R H M; Ge, L

2013-12-01

Zoonotic infectious livestock diseases are becoming a significant burden for both animal and human health and are rapidly gaining the attention of decision-makers who manage public health programmes. If control decisions have only monetary components, governments are generally regarded as being risk-neutral and the intervention strategy with the highest expected benefit (lowest expected net costs) should be preferred. However, preferences will differ and alternative intervention plans will prevail if (human) life and death outcomes are involved. A rational decision framework must therefore consider risk aversion in the decision-maker and controversial values related to public health. In the present study, risk aversion and its impact on both the utility for the monetary component and the utility for the non-monetary component is shown to be an important element when dealing with emerging zoonotic infectious livestock diseases and should not be ignored in the understanding and support of decision-making. The decision framework was applied to several control strategies for the reduction of human cases of brucellosis (Brucella melitensis) originating from sheep in Turkey.

Affective and cognitive mechanisms of risky decision making.

PubMed

Shimp, Kristy G; Mitchell, Marci R; Beas, B Sofia; Bizon, Jennifer L; Setlow, Barry

2015-01-01

The ability to make advantageous decisions under circumstances in which there is a risk of adverse consequences is an important component of adaptive behavior; however, extremes in risk taking (either high or low) can be maladaptive and are characteristic of a number of neuropsychiatric disorders. To better understand the contributions of various affective and cognitive factors to risky decision making, cohorts of male Long-Evans rats were trained in a "Risky Decision making Task" (RDT), in which they made discrete trial choices between a small, "safe" food reward and a large, "risky" food reward accompanied by varying probabilities of footshock. Experiment 1 evaluated the relative contributions of the affective stimuli (i.e., punishment vs. reward) to RDT performance by parametrically varying the magnitudes of the footshock and large reward. Varying the shock magnitude had a significant impact on choice of the large, "risky" reward, such that greater magnitudes were associated with reduced choice of the large reward. In contrast, varying the large, "risky" reward magnitude had minimal influence on reward choice. Experiment 2 compared individual variability in RDT performance with performance in an attentional set shifting task (assessing cognitive flexibility), a delayed response task (assessing working memory), and a delay discounting task (assessing impulsive choice). Rats characterized as risk averse in the RDT made more perseverative errors on the set shifting task than did their risk taking counterparts, whereas RDT performance was not related to working memory abilities or impulsive choice. In addition, rats that showed greater delay discounting (greater impulsive choice) showed corresponding poorer performance in the working memory task. Together, these results suggest that reward-related decision making under risk of punishment is more strongly influenced by the punishment than by the reward, and that risky and impulsive decision making are associated with distinct components of executive function. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Affective and cognitive mechanisms of risky decision making

PubMed Central

Shimp, Kristy G.; Mitchell, Marci R.; Beas, B. Sofia; Bizon, Jennifer L.; Setlow, Barry

2014-01-01

The ability to make advantageous decisions under circumstances in which there is a risk of adverse consequences is an important component of adaptive behavior; however, extremes in risk taking (either high or low) can be maladaptive and are characteristic of a number of neuropsychiatric disorders. To better understand the contributions of various affective and cognitive factors to risky decision making, cohorts of male Long-Evans rats were trained in a “Risky Decision making Task” (RDT), in which they made discrete trial choices between a small, “safe” food reward and a large, “risky” food reward accompanied by varying probabilities of footshock. Experiment 1 evaluated the relative contributions of the affective stimuli (i.e., punishment vs. reward) to RDT performance by parametrically varying the magnitudes of the footshock and large reward. Varying the shock magnitude had a significant impact on choice of the large, “risky” reward, such that greater magnitudes were associated with reduced choice of the large reward. In contrast, varying the large, “risky” reward magnitude had minimal influence on reward choice. Experiment 2 compared individual variability in RDT performance with performance in an attentional set shifting task (assessing cognitive flexibility), a delayed response task (assessing working memory), and a delay discounting task (assessing impulsive choice). Rats characterized as risk averse in the RDT made more perseverative errors on the set shifting task than did their risk taking counterparts, whereas RDT performance was not related to working memory abilities or impulsive choice. In addition, rats that showed greater delay discounting (greater impulsive choice) showed corresponding poorer performance in the working memory task. Together, these results suggest that reward-related decision making under risk of punishment is more strongly influenced by the punishment than by the reward, and that risky and impulsive decision making are associated with distinct components of executive function. PMID:24642448

Revisiting the generation and interpretation of climate models experiments for adaptation decision-making (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranger, N.; Millner, A.; Niehoerster, F.

2010-12-01

Traditionally, climate change risk assessments have taken a roughly four-stage linear ‘chain’ of moving from socioeconomic projections, to climate projections, to primary impacts and then finally onto economic and social impact assessment. Adaptation decisions are then made on the basis of these outputs. The escalation of uncertainty through this chain is well known; resulting in an ‘explosion’ of uncertainties in the final risk and adaptation assessment. The space of plausible future risk scenarios is growing ever wider with the application of new techniques which aim to explore uncertainty ever more deeply; such as those used in the recent ‘probabilistic’ UK Climate Projections 2009, and the stochastic integrated assessment models, for example PAGE2002. This explosion of uncertainty can make decision-making problematic, particularly given that the uncertainty information communicated can not be treated as strictly probabilistic and therefore, is not an easy fit with standard decision-making under uncertainty approaches. Additional problems can arise from the fact that the uncertainty estimated for different components of the ‘chain’ is rarely directly comparable or combinable. Here, we explore the challenges and limitations of using current projections for adaptation decision-making. We report the findings of a recent report completed for the UK Adaptation Sub-Committee on approaches to deal with these challenges and make robust adaptation decisions today. To illustrate these approaches, we take a number of illustrative case studies, including a case of adaptation to hurricane risk on the US Gulf Coast. This is a particularly interesting case as it involves urgent adaptation of long-lived infrastructure but requires interpreting highly uncertain climate change science and modelling; i.e. projections of Atlantic basin hurricane activity. An approach we outline is reversing the linear chain of assessments to put the economics and decision-making first. Such an approach forces one to focus on the information of greatest value for the specific decision. We suggest that such an approach will help to accommodate the uncertainties in the chain and facilitate robust decision-making. Initial findings of these case studies will be presented with the aim of raising open questions and promoting discussion of the methodology. Finally, we reflect on the implications for the design of climate model experiments.

Game Theory and Risk-Based Levee System Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, R.; Lund, J. R.; Madani, K.

2014-12-01

Risk-based analysis has been developed for optimal levee design for economic efficiency. Along many rivers, two levees on opposite riverbanks act as a simple levee system. Being rational and self-interested, land owners on each river bank would tend to independently optimize their levees with risk-based analysis, resulting in a Pareto-inefficient levee system design from the social planner's perspective. Game theory is applied in this study to analyze decision making process in a simple levee system in which the land owners on each river bank develop their design strategies using risk-based economic optimization. For each land owner, the annual expected total cost includes expected annual damage cost and annualized construction cost. The non-cooperative Nash equilibrium is identified and compared to the social planner's optimal distribution of flood risk and damage cost throughout the system which results in the minimum total flood cost for the system. The social planner's optimal solution is not feasible without appropriate level of compensation for the transferred flood risk to guarantee and improve conditions for all parties. Therefore, cooperative game theory is then employed to develop an economically optimal design that can be implemented in practice. By examining the game in the reversible and irreversible decision making modes, the cost of decision making myopia is calculated to underline the significance of considering the externalities and evolution path of dynamic water resource problems for optimal decision making.

Affective differences in Iowa Gambling Task performance associated with sexual risk taking and substance use among HIV-positive and HIV-negative men who have sex with men.

PubMed

Golub, Sarit A; Thompson, Louisa I; Kowalczyk, William J

2016-01-01

We investigated the relationship between emotional distress and decision making in sexual risk and substance use behavior among 174 (ages 25 to 50 years, 53% black) men who have sex with men (MSM), a population at increased risk for HIV. The sample was stratified by HIV status. Measures of affective decision making, depression, anxiety, sex acts, and substance use during the past 60 days were collected at our research center. Negative binomial regression models were used to examine the relationship between age, HIV status, anxiety, depression, and IGT performance in the prediction of number of risky sex acts and substance use days. Among those without anxiety or depression, both number of risky sex acts and drug use days decreased with better performance during risky trials (i.e., last two blocks) of the IGT. For those with higher rates of anxiety, but not depression, IGT risk trial performance and risky sex acts increased concomitantly. Anxiety also interacted with IGT performance across all trials to predict substance use, such that anxiety was associated with greater substance use among those with better IGT performance. The opposite was true for those with depression, but only during risk trials. HIV-positive participants reported fewer substance use days than HIV-negative participants, but there was no difference in association between behavior and IGT performance by HIV status. Our findings suggest that anxiety may exacerbate risk-taking behavior when affective decision-making ability is intact. The relationship between affective decision making and risk taking may be sensitive to different profiles of emotional distress, as well as behavioral context. Investigations of affective decision making in sexual risk taking and substance use should examine different distress profiles separately, with implications for HIV prevention efforts.

Affective differences in Iowa Gambling Task performance associated with sexual risk taking and substance use among HIV-positive and HIV-negative men who have sex with men

PubMed Central

Golub, Sarit A.; Thompson, Louisa I.; Kowalczyk, William J.

2016-01-01

We investigated the relationship between emotional distress and decision-making in sexual risk and substance use behavior among 174 (ages 25 to 50, 53% black) men who have sex with men (MSM), a population at increased risk for HIV. The sample was stratified by HIV status. Measures of affective decision-making (Iowa Gambling Task, IGT, Bechara et al., 1994), depression, anxiety, sex acts, and substance use during the past 60 days were collected at our research center. Negative binomial regression models were used to examine the relationship between age, HIV status, anxiety, depression, and IGT performance in the prediction of number of risky sex acts and substance use days. Among those without anxiety or depression, both number of risky sex acts and drug use days decreased with better performance during risky trials (i.e., last two blocks) of the IGT. For those with higher rates of anxiety, but not depression, IGT risk trial performance and risky sex acts increased concomitantly. Anxiety also interacted with IGT performance across all trials to predict substance use, such that anxiety was associated with greater substance use among those with better IGT performance. The opposite was true for those with depression, but only during risk trials. HIV-positive participants reported fewer substance use days than HIV-negative participants, but there was no difference in association between behavior and IGT performance by HIV status. Our findings suggest that anxiety may exacerbate risk-taking behavior when affective decision-making ability is intact. The relationship between affective decision-making and risk taking may be sensitive to different profiles of emotional distress, as well as behavioral context. Investigations of affective decision-making in sexual risk taking and substance use should examine different distress profiles separately, with implications for HIV prevention efforts. PMID:26745769

Risk Informed Margins Management as part of Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curtis Smith

2014-06-01

The ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin is important to improved decision making about Light Water Reactor (LWR) design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margin management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. In addition, as research and development in the LWR Sustainability (LWRS) Program and other collaborative efforts yield new data, sensors, and improved scientific understanding of physical processes that govern the aging and degradation of plant SSCs needs and opportunities to better optimize plantmore » safety and performance will become known. To support decision making related to economics, readability, and safety, the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway provides methods and tools that enable mitigation options known as risk informed margins management (RIMM) strategies.« less

Agreement on Child Maltreatment Decisions: A Nonrandomized Study on the Effects of Structured Decision-Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bartelink, C.; van Yperen, T. A.; ten Berge, I. J.; de Kwaadsteniet, L.; Witteman, C. L. M.

2014-01-01

Background: Practitioners investigating cases of suspected child maltreatment often disagree whether a child is subject to or at risk of abuse or neglect in the family and, if so, what to do about such abuse or neglect. Structured decision-making is considered to be a solution to the problem of subjective judgments and decisions. Objective: This…

Decision-making competence predicts domain-specific risk attitudes

PubMed Central

Weller, Joshua A.; Ceschi, Andrea; Randolph, Caleb

2015-01-01

Decision-making competence (DMC) reflects individual differences in rational responding across several classic behavioral decision-making tasks. Although it has been associated with real-world risk behavior, less is known about the degree to which DMC contributes to specific components of risk attitudes. Utilizing a psychological risk-return framework, we examined the associations between risk attitudes and DMC. Italian community residents (n = 804) completed an online DMC measure, using a subset of the original Adult-DMC battery. Participants also completed a self-reported risk attitude measure for three components of risk attitudes (risk-taking, risk perceptions, and expected benefits) across six risk domains. Overall, greater performance on the DMC component scales were inversely, albeit modestly, associated with risk-taking tendencies. Structural equation modeling results revealed that DMC was associated with lower perceived expected benefits for all domains. In contrast, its association with perceived risks was more domain-specific. These analyses also revealed stronger indirect effects for the DMC → expected benefits → risk-taking path than the DMC → perceived risk → risk-taking path, especially for behaviors that may be considered more maladaptive in nature. These results suggest that DMC performance differentially impacts specific components of risk attitudes, and may be more strongly related to the evaluation of expected value of a specific behavior. PMID:26029128

Patient autonomy in multiple sclerosis--possible goals and assessment strategies.

PubMed

Heesen, C; Köpke, S; Solari, A; Geiger, F; Kasper, J

2013-08-15

Patient autonomy has been increasingly acknowledged as prerequisite for successful medical decision making in Western countries. In medical decisions with a need to involve a health professional, patient autonomy becomes apparent in the extent of patients' participation in the communication as described in the concept of shared decision making. Patient autonomy can be derived from different perspectives or goals and the focus of evaluation approaches may vary accordingly. Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a paradigmatic disease to study patient autonomy mainly because MS patients are highly disease competent and due to ambiguous evidence on many aspects of disease-related medical decision making. This review gives an overview on measurement issues in studying decision making in MS, categorized according to prerequisites, process measures and outcomes of patient autonomy. As relevant prerequisites role preferences, risk attribution, risk tolerance, and risk knowledge are discussed. Regarding processes, we distinguish intra-psychic and interpersonal aspects. Intra-psychic processes are elucidated using the theory of planned behavior, which guided development of a 30-item scale to capture decisions about immunotherapy. Moreover, a theory of uncertainty management has been created resulting in the development of a corresponding measurement concept. Interpersonal processes evolving between physician and patient can be thoroughly analyzed from different perspectives by use of the newly developed comprehensive MAPPIN'SDM inventory. Concerning outcomes, besides health related outcomes, we discuss match of preferred roles during the decision encounters (preference match), decisional conflict as well as an application of the multidimensional measure of informed choice to decisions of MS patients. These approaches provide an overview on patient-inherent and interpersonal factors and processes modulating medical decision making and health behavior in MS and beyond. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Decisional role preferences, risk knowledge and information interests in patients with multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Heesen, Christoph; Kasper, Jürgen; Segal, Julia; Köpke, Sascha; Mühlhauser, Ingrid

2004-12-01

Shared decision making is increasingly recognized as the ideal model of patient-physician communication especially in chronic diseases with partially effective treatments as multiple sclerosis (MS). To evaluate prerequisite factors for this kind of decision making we studied patients' decisional role preferences in medical decision making, knowledge on risks, information interests and the relations between these factors in MS. After conducting focus groups to generate hypotheses, 219 randomly selected patients from the MS Outpatient Clinic register (n = 1374) of the University Hospital Hamburg received mailed questionnaires on their knowledge of risks in MS, their perception of their own level of knowledge, information interests and role preferences. Most patients (79%) indicated that they preferred an active role in treatment decisions giving the shared decision and the informed choice model the highest priority. MS risk knowledge was low but questionnaire results depended on disease course, disease duration and ongoing immune therapy. Measured knowledge as well as perceived knowledge was only weakly correlated with preferences of active roles. Major information interests were related to symptom alleviation, diagnostic procedures and prognosis. Patients with MS claimed autonomous roles in their health care decisions. The weak correlation between knowledge and preferences for active roles implicates that other factors largely influence role preferences.

A focus group study investigating medical decision making in octogenarians of high socioeconomic status with successful outcomes following cardiac surgery.

PubMed

Oldroyd, John C; Levinson, Michele R; Stephenson, Gemma; Rouse, Alice; Leeuwrik, Tina

2014-09-01

To explore medical decision making in octogenarians having cardiac surgery. Five focus groups conducted in a private hospital setting with octogenarians of high socioeconomic status who had successful cardiac surgery in the previous 3-13 months. Octogenarian's motivations for having cardiac surgery include survival, relief of symptoms, convenience and improving quality of life. The decision to have surgery involved clinical advice by doctors that the time had come to take up a surgical option. Patient's decisions did not take into account alternative treatment options either because these had not been presented by doctors or because medical management had failed. The final decision was made by patients. Decisions to have cardiac surgery in octogenarians are made by patients after discussions with family based on their risks as communicated by their doctors. This underlines the importance of effective risk communication by doctors to help patients make appropriate medical decisions. © 2013 The Authors. Australasian Journal on Ageing © 2013 ACOTA.

Risk analysis theory applied to fishing operations: A new approach on the decision-making problem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cunha, J.C.S.

1994-12-31

In the past the decisions concerning whether to continue or interrupt a fishing operation were based primarily on the operator`s previous experience. This procedure often led to wrong decisions and unnecessary loss of money and time. This paper describes a decision-making method based on risk analysis theory and previous operation results from a field under study. The method leads to more accurate decisions on a daily basis allowing the operator to verify each day of the operation if the decision being carried out is the one with the highest probability to conduct to the best economical result. An example ofmore » the method application is provided at the end of the paper.« less

Group decision making with the analytic hierarchy process in benefit-risk assessment: a tutorial.

PubMed

Hummel, J Marjan; Bridges, John F P; IJzerman, Maarten J

2014-01-01

The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been increasingly applied as a technique for multi-criteria decision analysis in healthcare. The AHP can aid decision makers in selecting the most valuable technology for patients, while taking into account multiple, and even conflicting, decision criteria. This tutorial illustrates the procedural steps of the AHP in supporting group decision making about new healthcare technology, including (1) identifying the decision goal, decision criteria, and alternative healthcare technologies to compare, (2) structuring the decision criteria, (3) judging the value of the alternative technologies on each decision criterion, (4) judging the importance of the decision criteria, (5) calculating group judgments, (6) analyzing the inconsistency in judgments, (7) calculating the overall value of the technologies, and (8) conducting sensitivity analyses. The AHP is illustrated via a hypothetical example, adapted from an empirical AHP analysis on the benefits and risks of tissue regeneration to repair small cartilage lesions in the knee.

Risk-seeking for losses is associated with 5-HTTLPR, but not with transient changes in 5-HT levels.

PubMed

Neukam, Philipp T; Kroemer, Nils B; Deza Araujo, Yacila I; Hellrung, Lydia; Pooseh, Shakoor; Rietschel, Marcella; Witt, Stephanie H; Schwarzenbolz, Uwe; Henle, Thomas; Smolka, Michael N

2018-05-05

Serotonin (5-HT) plays a key role in different aspects of value-based decision-making. A recent framework proposed that tonic 5-HT (together with dopamine, DA) codes future average reward expectations, providing a baseline against which possible choice outcomes are compared to guide decision-making. To test whether high 5-HT levels decrease loss aversion, risk-seeking for gains, and risk-seeking for losses. In a first session, 611 participants were genotyped for 5-HTTLPR and performed a mixed gambles (MGA) task and two probability discounting tasks for gains and losses, respectively (PDG/PDL). Afterwards, a subsample of 105 participants (44 with S/S, 6 with S/L, 55 with L/L genotype) completed the pharmacological study using a crossover design with tryptophan depletion (ATD), loading (ATL), and balanced (BAL) conditions. The same decision constructs were assessed. We found increased risk-seeking for losses in S/S compared to L/L individuals at the first visit (p = 0.002). Neither tryptophan depletion nor loading affected decision-making, nor did we observe an interaction between intervention and 5-HTTLPR genotype. Our data do not support the idea that transient changes of tonic 5-HT affect value-based decision-making. We provide evidence for an association of 5-HTTLPR with risk-seeking for losses, independent of acute 5-HT levels. This indicates that the association of 5-HTTLPR and risk-seeking for losses is mediated via other mechanisms, possibly by differences in the structural development of neural circuits of the 5-HT system during early life phases.

Decisions during Negatively-Framed Messages Yield Smaller Risk-Aversion-Related Brain Activation in Substance-Dependent Individuals

PubMed Central

Fukunaga, Rena; Bogg, Tim; Finn, Peter R.; Brown, Joshua W.

2012-01-01

A sizable segment of addiction research investigates the effects of persuasive message appeals on risky and deleterious behaviors. However, to date, little research has examined how various forms of message framing and corresponding behavioral choices might by mediated by risk-related brain regions. Using event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated brain regions hypothesized to mediate the influence of message appeals on decision making in substance-dependent (SD) compared to non-substance-dependent (non-SD) individuals. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) was modified to include positively-framed, negatively-framed, and control messages about long-term deck payoffs. In the positively-framed condition, the SD and non-SD groups showed improved decision-making performance that corresponded to higher risk-aversion-related brain activity in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and anterior insula (AI). In contrast, in the negatively-framed condition, the SD group showed poorer performance that corresponded to lower risk-aversion-related brain activity in the AI region. In addition, only the non-SD group showed a positive association between decision quality and greater risk-related activity in the ACC, regardless of message type. The findings suggest substance-dependent individuals may have reduced neurocognitive sensitivity in the ACC and AI regions involved in risk perception and aversion during decision-making, especially in response to framed messages that emphasize reduced prospects for long-term gains. PMID:23148798

Reason, emotion and decision-making: risk and reward computation with feeling.

PubMed

Quartz, Steven R

2009-05-01

Many models of judgment and decision-making posit distinct cognitive and emotional contributions to decision-making under uncertainty. Cognitive processes typically involve exact computations according to a cost-benefit calculus, whereas emotional processes typically involve approximate, heuristic processes that deliver rapid evaluations without mental effort. However, it remains largely unknown what specific parameters of uncertain decision the brain encodes, the extent to which these parameters correspond to various decision-making frameworks, and their correspondence to emotional and rational processes. Here, I review research suggesting that emotional processes encode in a precise quantitative manner the basic parameters of financial decision theory, indicating a reorientation of emotional and cognitive contributions to risky choice.

Mapping ecological risks with a portfolio-based technique: incorporating uncertainty and decision-making preferences

Treesearch

Denys Yemshanov; Frank H. Koch; Mark Ducey; Klaus Koehler

2013-01-01

Geographic mapping of risks is a useful analytical step in ecological risk assessments and in particular, in analyses aimed to estimate risks associated with introductions of invasive organisms. In this paper, we approach invasive species risk mapping as a portfolio allocation problem and apply techniques from decision theory to build an invasion risk map that combines...

Risk-Taking Behavior in a Computerized Driving Task: Brain Activation Correlates of Decision-Making, Outcome, and Peer Influence in Male Adolescents.

PubMed

Vorobyev, Victor; Kwon, Myoung Soo; Moe, Dagfinn; Parkkola, Riitta; Hämäläinen, Heikki

2015-01-01

Increased propensity for risky behavior in adolescents, particularly in peer groups, is thought to reflect maturational imbalance between reward processing and cognitive control systems that affect decision-making. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate brain functional correlates of risk-taking behavior and effects of peer influence in 18-19-year-old male adolescents. The subjects were divided into low and high risk-taking groups using either personality tests or risk-taking rates in a simulated driving task. The fMRI data were analyzed for decision-making (whether to take a risk at intersections) and outcome (pass or crash) phases, and for the influence of peer competition. Personality test-based groups showed no difference in the amount of risk-taking (similarly increased during peer competition) and brain activation. When groups were defined by actual task performance, risk-taking activated two areas in the left medial prefrontal cortex (PFC) significantly more in low than in high risk-takers. In the entire sample, risky decision-specific activation was found in the anterior and dorsal cingulate, superior parietal cortex, basal ganglia (including the nucleus accumbens), midbrain, thalamus, and hypothalamus. Peer competition increased outcome-related activation in the right caudate head and cerebellar vermis in the entire sample. Our results suggest that the activation of the medial (rather than lateral) PFC and striatum is most specific to risk-taking behavior of male adolescents in a simulated driving situation, and reflect a stronger conflict and thus increased cognitive effort to take risks in low risk-takers, and reward anticipation for risky decisions, respectively. The activation of the caudate nucleus, particularly for the positive outcome (pass) during peer competition, further suggests enhanced reward processing of risk-taking under peer influence.

An experiment with interactive planning models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Beville, J.; Wagner, J. H.; Zannetos, Z. S.

1970-01-01

Experiments on decision making in planning problems are described. Executives were tested in dealing with capital investments and competitive pricing decisions under conditions of uncertainty. A software package, the interactive risk analysis model system, was developed, and two controlled experiments were conducted. It is concluded that planning models can aid management, and predicted uses of the models are as a central tool, as an educational tool, to improve consistency in decision making, to improve communications, and as a tool for consensus decision making.

Applications of the International Space Station Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grant, Warren; Lutomski, Michael G.

2011-01-01

Recently the International Space Station (ISS) has incorporated more Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) in the decision making process for significant issues. Future PRAs will have major impact to ISS and future spacecraft development and operations. These PRAs will have their foundation in the current complete ISS PRA model and the current PRA trade studies that are being analyzed as requested by ISS Program stakeholders. ISS PRAs have recently helped in the decision making process for determining reliability requirements for future NASA spacecraft and commercial spacecraft, making crew rescue decisions, as well as making operational requirements for ISS orbital orientation, planning Extravehicular activities (EVAs) and robotic operations. This paper will describe some applications of the ISS PRA model and how they impacted the final decision. This paper will discuss future analysis topics such as life extension, requirements of new commercial vehicles visiting ISS.

Blunted insula activation reflects increased risk and reward seeking as an interaction of testosterone administration and the MAOA polymorphism.

PubMed

Wagels, Lisa; Votinov, Mikhail; Radke, Sina; Clemens, Benjamin; Montag, Christian; Jung, Sonja; Habel, Ute

2017-09-01

Testosterone, a male sex hormone, has been suggested to partly explain mixed findings in males and females when investigating behavioral tendencies associated with the MAOA polymorphism. Prior studies indicated that the MAOA polymorphism represents a vulnerability factor for financial risk-taking and harm avoidance and that testosterone increases human risk-taking. We therefore assumed an interactive influence of the MAOA polymorphism and testosterone application on decision making and corresponding neural correlates in a risk and reward context. Stratified for the MAOA polymorphism (S =short, L =long), 103 healthy males were assigned to a placebo or testosterone group (double blind, randomized) receiving a topical gel containing 50 mg testosterone. During a functional MRI scan, the participants performed a sequential decision making task. Our results indicate that testosterone and the MAOA polymorphism jointly influence sequential decision making. The MAOA-S variant was associated with less automatic harm avoidance as reflected in response times on safe decisions. Moreover, after testosterone administration, MAOA-S carriers were more risk-taking. Overall activity in the anterior cingulate cortex, anterior insula and inferior frontal gyrus increased with growing risk for losses. In the anterior insula, testosterone administration mitigated this effect solely in MAOA-S carriers. This might be a reflection of an improved coping during risk-reward conflicts subsequently modulating risky decision making. While the molecular basis is not well defined so far, our results support the assumption of testosterone as a modulatory factor for previously reported sex differences of behavioral associations with the MAOA-S variant. Hum Brain Mapp 38:4574-4593, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Asymmetric effects of positive and negative affect on decision making.

PubMed

Cahir, Caitriona; Thomas, Kevin

2010-02-01

Although affect is a fundamental element of decision making, there are different theoretical accounts and conflicting empirical evidence of its influence. This experiment was done to begin a more coherent account of the influence of affect by using standardised images to induce affect and a betting task to measure decision making. Eighty-five participants were assigned to a positive, a negative, or a neutral affect condition before making decisions on two hypothetical horse races. Analysis indicated that those in the positive and negative conditions made lower-risk decisions than those in the neutral condition; however, this did not differ between the races, suggesting that task familiarity did not moderate the influence of affect. Contrary to previous research, these results indicate that positive and negative affect do not necessarily exert symmetrical effects on decision making. Implications for the major accounts of the influence of affect on decision making are discussed in relation to the findings.

A quantitative risk model for early lifecycle decision making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feather, M. S.; Cornford, S. L.; Dunphy, J.; Hicks, K.

2002-01-01

Decisions made in the earliest phases of system development have the most leverage to influence the success of the entire development effort, and yet must be made when information is incomplete and uncertain. We have developed a scalable cost-benefit model to support this critical phase of early-lifecycle decision-making.

Emotion and Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Physiological arousal predicts increased gambling during ambiguity but not risk

PubMed Central

FeldmanHall, Oriel; Glimcher, Paul; Baker, Augustus L; Phelps, Elizabeth A

2016-01-01

Uncertainty, which is ubiquitous in decision-making, can be fractionated into known probabilities (risk) and unknown probabilities (ambiguity). Although research illustrates that individuals more often avoid decisions associated with ambiguity compared to risk, it remains unclear why ambiguity is perceived as more aversive. Here we examine the role of arousal in shaping the representation of value and subsequent choice under risky and ambiguous decisions. To investigate the relationship between arousal and decisions of uncertainty, we measure skin conductance response—a quantifiable measure reflecting sympathetic nervous system arousal—during choices to gamble under risk and ambiguity. To quantify the discrete influences of risk and ambiguity sensitivity and the subjective value of each option under consideration, we model fluctuating uncertainty, as well as the amount of money that can be gained by taking the gamble. Results reveal that while arousal tracks the subjective value of a lottery regardless of uncertainty type, arousal differentially contributes to the computation of value—i.e. choice—depending on whether the uncertainty is risky or ambiguous: enhanced arousal adaptively decreases risk-taking only when the lottery is highly risky but increases risk-taking when the probability of winning is ambiguous (even after controlling for subjective value). Together, this suggests that the role of arousal during decisions of uncertainty is modulatory and highly dependent on the context in which the decision is framed. PMID:27690508

Emotion, Affect, and Risk Communication with Older Adults: Challenges and Opportunities

PubMed Central

Finucane, Melissa L.

2008-01-01

Recent research suggests that emotion, affect, and cognition play important roles in risk perception and that their roles in judgment and decision-making processes may change over the lifespan. This paper discusses how emotion and affect might help or hinder risk communication with older adults. Currently, there are few guidelines for developing effective risk messages for the world’s aging population, despite the array of complex risk decisions that come with increasing age and the importance of maintaining good decision making in later life. Age-related declines in cognitive abilities such as memory and processing speed, increased reliance on automatic processes, and adaptive motivational shifts toward focusing more on affective (especially positive) information mean that older and younger adults may respond differently to risk messages. Implications for specific risk information formats (probabilities, frequencies, visual displays, and narratives) are discussed and directions for future research are highlighted. PMID:19169420

Treatment preferences and involvement in treatment decision making of patients with endometrial cancer and clinicians.

PubMed

Kunneman, M; Pieterse, A H; Stiggelbout, A M; Nout, R A; Kamps, M; Lutgens, L C H W; Paulissen, J; Mattheussens, O J A; Kruitwagen, R F P M; Creutzberg, C L

2014-08-12

Vaginal brachytherapy (VBT) in high-intermediate-risk endometrial cancer (EC) provides a significant reduction in the risk of local cancer recurrence, but without survival benefit and with increased mucosal atrophy. Five-year local control is estimated to be similar for VBT and a watchful waiting policy (WWP), in which patients receive VBT combined with external radiation in case of a recurrence. Our aim was to assess treatment preferences of EC patients and clinicians regarding VBT and WWP, and to evaluate their preferred and perceived involvement in treatment decision making. Interviews were held with 95 treated EC patients. The treatment trade-off method was used to assess the minimally desired benefit from VBT in local control. Patients' preferred and perceived involvement in decision making were assessed using a questionnaire. Seventy-seven clinicians completed a questionnaire assessing their minimally desired benefit and preferred involvement in decision making. Minimally desired benefit of VBT was significantly lower for patients than for clinicians (median=0 vs 8%, P<0.001), for irradiated than for non-irradiated patients (median=0 vs 6.5%, P<0.001), and for radiation oncologists than for gynaecologists (median=4 vs 13%, P<0.001). Substantial variation existed within the groups of patients and clinicians. Participants preferred the patient and clinician to share in the decision about VBT. However, irradiated patients indicated low perceived involvement in actual treatment decision making. We found variations between and within patients and clinicians in minimally desired benefit from VBT. However, the recurrence risk at which patients preferred VBT was low. Our results showed that patients consider active participation in decision making essential.

Treatment preferences and involvement in treatment decision making of patients with endometrial cancer and clinicians

PubMed Central

Kunneman, M; Pieterse, A H; Stiggelbout, A M; Nout, R A; Kamps, M; Lutgens, L C H W; Paulissen, J; Mattheussens, O J A; Kruitwagen, R F P M; Creutzberg, C L

2014-01-01

Background: Vaginal brachytherapy (VBT) in high–intermediate-risk endometrial cancer (EC) provides a significant reduction in the risk of local cancer recurrence, but without survival benefit and with increased mucosal atrophy. Five-year local control is estimated to be similar for VBT and a watchful waiting policy (WWP), in which patients receive VBT combined with external radiation in case of a recurrence. Our aim was to assess treatment preferences of EC patients and clinicians regarding VBT and WWP, and to evaluate their preferred and perceived involvement in treatment decision making. Methods: Interviews were held with 95 treated EC patients. The treatment trade-off method was used to assess the minimally desired benefit from VBT in local control. Patients' preferred and perceived involvement in decision making were assessed using a questionnaire. Seventy-seven clinicians completed a questionnaire assessing their minimally desired benefit and preferred involvement in decision making. Results: Minimally desired benefit of VBT was significantly lower for patients than for clinicians (median=0 vs 8%, P<0.001), for irradiated than for non-irradiated patients (median=0 vs 6.5%, P<0.001), and for radiation oncologists than for gynaecologists (median=4 vs 13%, P<0.001). Substantial variation existed within the groups of patients and clinicians. Participants preferred the patient and clinician to share in the decision about VBT. However, irradiated patients indicated low perceived involvement in actual treatment decision making. Conclusions: We found variations between and within patients and clinicians in minimally desired benefit from VBT. However, the recurrence risk at which patients preferred VBT was low. Our results showed that patients consider active participation in decision making essential. PMID:24921911

An Investigation of Network Enterprise Risk Management Techniques to Support Military Net-Centric Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-09-01

this information supports the decison - making process as it is applied to the management of risk. 2. Operational Risk Operational risk is the threat... reasonability . However, to make a software system fault tolerant, the system needs to recognize and fix a system state condition. To detect a fault, a fault...Tracking ..........................................51 C. DECISION- MAKING PROCESS................................................................51 1. Risk

Real and hypothetical monetary rewards modulate risk taking in the brain.

PubMed

Xu, Sihua; Pan, Yu; Wang, You; Spaeth, Andrea M; Qu, Zhe; Rao, Hengyi

2016-07-07

Both real and hypothetical monetary rewards are widely used as reinforcers in risk taking and decision making studies. However, whether real and hypothetical monetary rewards modulate risk taking and decision making in the same manner remains controversial. In this study, we used event-related potentials (ERP) with a balloon analogue risk task (BART) paradigm to examine the effects of real and hypothetical monetary rewards on risk taking in the brain. Behavioral data showed reduced risk taking after negative feedback (money loss) during the BART with real rewards compared to those with hypothetical rewards, suggesting increased loss aversion with real monetary rewards. The ERP data demonstrated a larger feedback-related negativity (FRN) in response to money loss during risk taking with real rewards compared to those with hypothetical rewards, which may reflect greater prediction error or regret emotion after real monetary losses. These findings demonstrate differential effects of real versus hypothetical monetary rewards on risk taking behavior and brain activity, suggesting a caution when drawing conclusions about real choices from hypothetical studies of intended behavior, especially when large rewards are used. The results have implications for future utility of real and hypothetical monetary rewards in studies of risk taking and decision making.

Extending decision making competence to special populations: a pilot study of persons on the autism spectrum

PubMed Central

Levin, Irwin P.; Gaeth, Gary J.; Foley-Nicpon, Megan; Yegorova, Vitaliya; Cederberg, Charles; Yan, Haoyang

2015-01-01

The area of decision making has much to offer in our effort to understand special populations. This pilot study is an example of just such a project, where we illustrate how traditional decision making tools and tasks can be used to uncover strengths and weaknesses within a growing population of young adults with autism. In this pilot project we extended accounts of autistic behavior such as those derived from “theory of mind” to predict key components of decision making in high-functioning young adults on the autism spectrum. A battery of tests was administered to 15 high-functioning college students with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), focusing on decision making competence (DMC) and other aspects of decision making related to known deficits associated with autism. Data from this group were compared to data from unselected college students receiving the same measures. First, as a test of a key social deficit associated with autism, the target group scored much lower on the Empathy Quotient scale. Traditional elements of decision making competency such as Numeracy and application of decision rules were comparable across groups. However, there were differences in thinking style, with the ASD group showing lesser ability and engagement in intuitive thinking, and they showed lower levels of risk taking. For comparisons within the ASD group, autobiographical reports concerning individual lifestyles and outcomes were used to derive a scale of Social Functioning. The lowest scoring individuals showed the lowest levels of intuitive thinking, the lowest perceived levels of others’ endorsement of socially undesirable behaviors, and the lowest ability to discriminate between “good” and “bad” risks. Results are discussed in terms of interventions that might aid high-functioning young adults with ASD in their everyday decision making. PMID:25972831

Extending decision making competence to special populations: a pilot study of persons on the autism spectrum.

PubMed

Levin, Irwin P; Gaeth, Gary J; Foley-Nicpon, Megan; Yegorova, Vitaliya; Cederberg, Charles; Yan, Haoyang

2015-01-01

The area of decision making has much to offer in our effort to understand special populations. This pilot study is an example of just such a project, where we illustrate how traditional decision making tools and tasks can be used to uncover strengths and weaknesses within a growing population of young adults with autism. In this pilot project we extended accounts of autistic behavior such as those derived from "theory of mind" to predict key components of decision making in high-functioning young adults on the autism spectrum. A battery of tests was administered to 15 high-functioning college students with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), focusing on decision making competence (DMC) and other aspects of decision making related to known deficits associated with autism. Data from this group were compared to data from unselected college students receiving the same measures. First, as a test of a key social deficit associated with autism, the target group scored much lower on the Empathy Quotient scale. Traditional elements of decision making competency such as Numeracy and application of decision rules were comparable across groups. However, there were differences in thinking style, with the ASD group showing lesser ability and engagement in intuitive thinking, and they showed lower levels of risk taking. For comparisons within the ASD group, autobiographical reports concerning individual lifestyles and outcomes were used to derive a scale of Social Functioning. The lowest scoring individuals showed the lowest levels of intuitive thinking, the lowest perceived levels of others' endorsement of socially undesirable behaviors, and the lowest ability to discriminate between "good" and "bad" risks. Results are discussed in terms of interventions that might aid high-functioning young adults with ASD in their everyday decision making.

Dissociation between decision-making under risk and decision-making under ambiguity in premanifest and manifest Huntington's disease.

PubMed

Adjeroud, Najia; Besnard, Jeremy; Verny, Christophe; Prundean, Adriana; Scherer, Clarisse; Gohier, Bénédicte; Bonneau, Dominique; Massioui, Nicole El; Allain, Philippe

2017-08-01

We investigated decision-making under ambiguity (DM-UA) and decision making under risk (DM-UR) in individuals with premanifest and manifest Huntington's disease (HD). Twenty individuals with premanifest HD and 23 individuals with manifest HD, on one hand, and 39 healthy individuals divided into two control groups, on the other, undertook a modified version of the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), an adaptation of a DM-UA task, and a modified version of the Game of Dice Task (GDT), an adaptation of a DM-UR task. Participants also filled in a questionnaire of impulsivity and responded to cognitive tests specifically designed to assess executive functions. Compared to controls, individuals with premanifest HD were unimpaired in performing executive tests as well as in decision-making tasks, except for the Stroop task. In contrast, individuals with manifest HD were impaired in both the IGT and executive tasks, but not in the GDT. No sign of impulsivity was observed in individuals with premanifest or manifest HD. Our results suggest that the progression of HD impairs DM-UA without affecting DM-UR, and indicate that decision-making abilities are preserved during the premanifest stage of HD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enhancing the role of science in the decision-making of the European Union.

PubMed

Allio, Lorenzo; Ballantine, Bruce; Meads, Richard

2006-02-01

Used well, science provides effective ways of identifying potential risks, protecting citizens, and using resources wisely. It enables government decisions to be based on evidence and provides a foundation for a rule-based framework that supports global trade. To ensure that the best available science becomes a key input in the decisions made by EU institutions, this abridged version of a working paper produced for the European Policy Centre, a leading, independent think tank, considers how science is currently used in the policy and decision-making processes of the EU, what the limitations of scientific evidence are, and how a risk assessment process based on scientific 'good practices' can be advantageous. Finally, the paper makes recommendations on how to improve the use of science by EU institutions.

Forecasted economic change and the self-fulfilling prophecy in economic decision-making

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

This study addresses the self-fulfilling prophecy effect, in the domain of economic decision-making. We present experimental data in support of the hypothesis that speculative forecasts of economic change can impact individuals’ economic decision behavior, prior to any realized changes. In a within-subjects experiment, participants (N = 40) played 180 trials in a Balloon Analogue Risk Talk (BART) in which they could make actual profit. Simple messages about possible (positive and negative) changes in outcome probabilities of future trials had significant effects on measures of risk taking (number of inflations) and actual profits in the game. These effects were enduring, even though no systematic changes in actual outcome probabilities took place following any of the messages. Risk taking also found to be reflected in reaction times revealing increasing reaction times with riskier decisions. Positive and negative economic forecasts affected reaction times slopes differently, with negative forecasts resulting in increased reaction time slopes as a function of risk. These findings suggest that forecasted positive or negative economic change can bias people’s mental model of the economy and reduce or stimulate risk taking. Possible implications for media-fulfilling prophecies in the domain of the economy are considered. PMID:28334031

Visualization support for risk-informed decision making when planning and managing software developments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feather, Martin S.; Kiper, James D.; Menzies, Tim

2005-01-01

Key decisions are made in the early stages of planning and management of software developments. The information basis for these decisions is often a mix of analogy with past developments, and the best judgments of domain experts. Visualization of this information can support to such decision making by clarifying the status of the information and yielding insights into the ramifications of that information vis-a-vis decision alternatives.

Monitoring of human brain functions in risk decision-making task by diffuse optical tomography using voxel-wise general linear model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Zi-Jing; Li, Lin; Cazzell, Marry; Liu, Hanli

2013-03-01

Functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) is a non-invasive imaging technique which measures the hemodynamic changes that reflect the brain activity. Diffuse optical tomography (DOT), a variant of fNIRS with multi-channel NIRS measurements, has demonstrated capability of three dimensional (3D) reconstructions of hemodynamic changes due to the brain activity. Conventional method of DOT image analysis to define the brain activation is based upon the paired t-test between two different states, such as resting-state versus task-state. However, it has limitation because the selection of activation and post-activation period is relatively subjective. General linear model (GLM) based analysis can overcome this limitation. In this study, we combine the 3D DOT image reconstruction with GLM-based analysis (i.e., voxel-wise GLM analysis) to investigate the brain activity that is associated with the risk-decision making process. Risk decision-making is an important cognitive process and thus is an essential topic in the field of neuroscience. The balloon analogue risk task (BART) is a valid experimental model and has been commonly used in behavioral measures to assess human risk taking action and tendency while facing risks. We have utilized the BART paradigm with a blocked design to investigate brain activations in the prefrontal and frontal cortical areas during decision-making. Voxel-wise GLM analysis was performed on 18human participants (10 males and 8females).In this work, we wish to demonstrate the feasibility of using voxel-wise GLM analysis to image and study cognitive functions in response to risk decision making by DOT. Results have shown significant changes in the dorsal lateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) during the active choice mode and a different hemodynamic pattern between genders, which are in good agreements with published literatures in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and fNIRS studies.

Risk-prone individuals prefer the wrong options on a rat version of the Iowa Gambling Task.

PubMed

Rivalan, Marion; Ahmed, Serge H; Dellu-Hagedorn, Françoise

2009-10-15

Decision making in complex and conflicting situations, as measured in the widely used Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), can be profoundly impaired in psychiatric disorders, such as attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, drug addiction, and also in healthy individuals for whom immediate gratification prevails over long-term gain. The cognitive processes underlying these deficits are poorly understood, in part due to a lack of suitable animal models assessing complex decision making with good construct validity. We developed a rat gambling task analogous to the IGT that tracks, for the first time, the ongoing decision process within a single session in an operant cage. Rats could choose between various options. Disadvantageous options, as opposed to advantageous ones, offered bigger immediate food reward but were followed by longer, unpredictable penalties (time-out). The majority of rats can evaluate and deduce favorable options more or less rapidly according to task complexity, whereas others systematically choose disadvantageously. These interindividual differences are stable over time and do not depend on task difficulty or on the level of food restriction. We find that poor decision making does not result from a failure to acquire relevant information but from hypersensitivity to reward and higher risk taking in anxiogenic situations. These results suggest that rats, as well as human poor performers, share similar traits to those observed in decision-making related psychiatric disorders. These traits could constitute risk factors of developing such disorders. The rapid identification of poor decision makers using the rat gambling task should promote the discovery of the specific brain dysfunctions that cause maladapted decision making.

How can we best respect patient autonomy in breast cancer treatment decisions?

PubMed Central

Martinez, Kathryn A; Kurian, Allison W

2015-01-01

SUMMARY Helping patients to maximize their autonomy in breast cancer decision-making is an important aspect of patient-centered care. Shared decision-making is a strategy that aims to maximize patient autonomy by integrating the values and preferences of the patient with the biomedical expertise of the physician. Application of this approach in breast cancer decision-making has not been uniform across cancer-specific interventions (e.g., surgery, chemotherapy), and in some circumstances may present challenges to evidence-based care delivery. Increasingly precise estimates of individual patients’ risk of recurrence and commensurate predicted benefit from certain therapies hold significant promise in helping patients exercise autonomous decision-making for their breast cancer care, yet will also likely complicate decision-making for certain subgroups of patients. PMID:25733982

Impact of ambiguity and risk on decision making in mild Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Sinz, H; Zamarian, L; Benke, T; Wenning, G K; Delazer, M

2008-01-01

Decisions under ambiguity and decisions under risk are crucial types of decision making in daily living at any age. This is the first study assessing these two types of decisions in patients with mild dementia of Alzheimer's type (DAT) by means of the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and a newly developed, Probability-Associated Gambling (PAG) task. While rules for gains and losses are implicit in the IGT, in the PAG task rules are explicit and winning probabilities, which change from trial to trial, can be estimated. Results of the IGT indicated that DAT patients made more disadvantageous decisions than healthy controls. Patients also shifted more frequently among decks, i.e. under ambiguity decisions were taken randomly and no advantageous strategy was established over time by DAT patients. Thus, not only actual choices but also development of advantageous strategies may be revealing about decision making in the IGT. Compared to controls, patients demonstrated less advantageous choices in the PAG task as well. They gambled more often in the low winning probabilities and less frequently in the high probabilities than healthy participants. Patients' performance on both tasks correlated with measures of executive functions. Findings of the present investigation are consistent with the early pathological cerebral changes and related (cognitive, emotional) deficits reported for DAT. As suggested by our study, decisions under ambiguity as well as decisions under risk are impaired in mild DAT. It may thus be expected that patients with mild DAT have difficulties in taking decisions in every-day life situations, both in cases of ambiguity (information on probability is missing or conflicting, and the expected utility of the different options is incalculable) and in cases of risk (outcomes can be predicted by well-defined or estimable probabilities).

Integrated Risk-Informed Decision-Making for an ALMR PRISM

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muhlheim, Michael David; Belles, Randy; Denning, Richard S.

Decision-making is the process of identifying decision alternatives, assessing those alternatives based on predefined metrics, selecting an alternative (i.e., making a decision), and then implementing that alternative. The generation of decisions requires a structured, coherent process, or a decision-making process. The overall objective for this work is that the generalized framework is adopted into an autonomous decision-making framework and tailored to specific requirements for various applications. In this context, automation is the use of computing resources to make decisions and implement a structured decision-making process with limited or no human intervention. The overriding goal of automation is to replace ormore » supplement human decision makers with reconfigurable decision-making modules that can perform a given set of tasks rationally, consistently, and reliably. Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success given the status of the plant/systems and component health, and a deterministic assessment between plant operating parameters and reactor protection parameters to prevent unnecessary trips and challenges to plant safety systems. The probabilistic portion of the decision-making engine of the supervisory control system is based on the control actions associated with an ALMR PRISM. Newly incorporated into the probabilistic models are the prognostic/diagnostic models developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. These allow decisions to incorporate the health of components into the decision–making process. Once the control options are identified and ranked based on the likelihood of success, the supervisory control system transmits the options to the deterministic portion of the platform. The deterministic portion of the decision-making engine uses thermal-hydraulic modeling and components for an advanced liquid-metal reactor Power Reactor Inherently Safe Module. The deterministic multi-attribute decision-making framework uses various sensor data (e.g., reactor outlet temperature, steam generator drum level) and calculates its position within the challenge state, its trajectory, and its margin within the controllable domain using utility functions to evaluate current and projected plant state space for different control decisions. The metrics that are evaluated are based on reactor trip set points. The integration of the deterministic calculations using multi-physics analyses and probabilistic safety calculations allows for the examination and quantification of margin recovery strategies. This also provides validation of the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Thus, the thermalhydraulics analyses are used to validate the control options identified from the probabilistic assessment. Future work includes evaluating other possible metrics and computational efficiencies, and developing a user interface to mimic display panels at a modern nuclear power plant.« less

Understanding Risky Behavior: The Influence of Cognitive, Emotional and Hormonal Factors on Decision-Making under Risk.

PubMed

Kusev, Petko; Purser, Harry; Heilman, Renata; Cooke, Alex J; Van Schaik, Paul; Baranova, Victoria; Martin, Rose; Ayton, Peter

2017-01-01

Financial risky decisions and evaluations pervade many human everyday activities. Scientific research in such decision-making typically explores the influence of socio-economic and cognitive factors on financial behavior. However, very little research has explored the holistic influence of contextual, emotional, and hormonal factors on preferences for risk in insurance and investment behaviors. Accordingly, the goal of this review article is to address the complexity of individual risky behavior and its underlying psychological factors, as well as to critically examine current regulations on financial behavior.

Understanding Risky Behavior: The Influence of Cognitive, Emotional and Hormonal Factors on Decision-Making under Risk

PubMed Central

Kusev, Petko; Purser, Harry; Heilman, Renata; Cooke, Alex J.; Van Schaik, Paul; Baranova, Victoria; Martin, Rose; Ayton, Peter

2017-01-01

Financial risky decisions and evaluations pervade many human everyday activities. Scientific research in such decision-making typically explores the influence of socio-economic and cognitive factors on financial behavior. However, very little research has explored the holistic influence of contextual, emotional, and hormonal factors on preferences for risk in insurance and investment behaviors. Accordingly, the goal of this review article is to address the complexity of individual risky behavior and its underlying psychological factors, as well as to critically examine current regulations on financial behavior. PMID:28203215

Blunted Ambiguity Aversion During Cost-Benefit Decisions in Antisocial Individuals.

PubMed

Buckholtz, Joshua W; Karmarkar, Uma; Ye, Shengxuan; Brennan, Grace M; Baskin-Sommers, Arielle

2017-05-17

Antisocial behavior is often assumed to reflect aberrant risk processing. However, many of the most significant forms of antisocial behavior, including crime, reflect the outcomes of decisions made under conditions of ambiguity rather than risk. While risk and ambiguity are formally distinct and experimentally dissociable, little is known about ambiguity sensitivity in individuals who engage in chronic antisocial behavior. We used a financial decision-making task in a high-risk community-based sample to test for associations between sensitivity to ambiguity, antisocial behavior, and arrest history. Sensitivity to ambiguity was lower in individuals who met diagnostic criteria for Antisocial Personality Disorder. Lower ambiguity sensitivity was also associated with higher externalizing (but not psychopathy) scores, and with higher levels of aggression (but not rule-breaking). Finally, blunted sensitivity to ambiguity also predicted a greater frequency of arrests. Together, these data suggest that alterations in cost-benefit decision-making under conditions of ambiguity may promote antisocial behavior.

Chevron v Echazabal: Public Health Issues Raised by the “Threat-to-Self” Defense to Adverse Employment Actions

PubMed Central

Barnes, Mark; Cleaveland, Kimberlee A.; Florencio, Patrik S.

2003-01-01

In June of 2002, the US Supreme Court upheld a regulation that allows employers, under the Americans with Disabilities Act, to make disability-related employment decisions based on risks to an employee’s own personal health or safety. Previous judicial decisions had allowed employers to make employment decisions based on the threat that a worker’s medical condition posed to others but had not addressed the issue of risk posed to an employee’s health by his or her own disability. The authors comment on the potential effects of the court’s decision for occupational health practitioners charged with assessing the degree of risk and harm of a particular workplace environment and for public health efforts aimed at curbing workplace injury and sickness. PMID:12660192

Adolescents' Neural Processing of Risky Decisions: Effects of Sex and Behavioral Disinhibition.

PubMed

Crowley, Thomas J; Dalwani, Manish S; Mikulich-Gilbertson, Susan K; Young, Susan E; Sakai, Joseph T; Raymond, Kristen M; McWilliams, Shannon K; Roark, Melissa J; Banich, Marie T

2015-01-01

Accidental injury and homicide, relatively common among adolescents, often follow risky behaviors; those are done more by boys and by adolescents with greater behavioral disinhibition (BD). Neural processing during adolescents' risky decision-making will differ in youths with greater BD severity, and in males vs. females, both before cautious behaviors and before risky behaviors. 81 adolescents (PATIENTS with substance and conduct problems, and comparison youths (Comparisons)), assessed in a 2 x 2 design ( Comparisons x Male:Female) repeatedly decided between doing a cautious behavior that earned 1 cent, or a risky one that either won 5 or lost 10 cents. Odds of winning after risky responses gradually decreased. Functional magnetic resonance imaging captured brain activity during 4-sec deliberation periods preceding responses. Most neural activation appeared in known decision-making structures. PATIENTS, who had more severe BD scores and clinical problems than Comparisons, also had extensive neural hypoactivity. Comparisons' greater activation before cautious responses included frontal pole, medial prefrontal cortex, striatum, and other regions; and before risky responses, insula, temporal, and parietal regions. Males made more risky and fewer cautious responses than females, but before cautious responses males activated numerous regions more than females. Before risky behaviors female-greater activation was more posterior, and male-greater more anterior. Neural processing differences during risky-cautious decision-making may underlie group differences in adolescents' substance-related and antisocial risk-taking. Patients reported harmful real-life decisions and showed extensive neural hypoactivity during risky-or-cautious decision-making. Males made more risky responses than females; apparently biased toward risky decisions, males (compared with females) utilized many more neural resources to make and maintain cautious decisions, indicating an important risk-related brain sexual dimorphism. The results suggest new possibilities for prevention and management of excessive, dangerous adolescent risk-taking.

Cross-Cutting Risk Framework: Mining Data for Common Risks Across the Portfolio

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klein, Gerald A., Jr.; Ruark, Valerie

2017-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) defines risk management as an integrated framework, combining risk-informed decision making and continuous risk management to foster forward-thinking and decision making from an integrated risk perspective. Therefore, decision makers must have access to risks outside of their own project to gain the knowledge that provides the integrated risk perspective. Through the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Projects Directorate (FPD) Business Change Initiative (BCI), risks were integrated into one repository to facilitate access to risk data between projects. With the centralized repository, communications between the FPD, project managers, and risk managers improved and GSFC created the cross-cutting risk framework (CCRF) team. The creation of the consolidated risk repository, in parallel with the initiation of monthly FPD risk managers and risk governance board meetings, are now providing a complete risk management picture spanning the entire directorate. This paper will describe the challenges, methodologies, tools, and techniques used to develop the CCRF, and the lessons learned as the team collectively worked to identify risks that FPD programs projects had in common, both past and present.

Expected value information improves financial risk taking across the adult life span.

PubMed

Samanez-Larkin, Gregory R; Wagner, Anthony D; Knutson, Brian

2011-04-01

When making decisions, individuals must often compensate for cognitive limitations, particularly in the face of advanced age. Recent findings suggest that age-related variability in striatal activity may increase financial risk-taking mistakes in older adults. In two studies, we sought to further characterize neural contributions to optimal financial risk taking and to determine whether decision aids could improve financial risk taking. In Study 1, neuroimaging analyses revealed that individuals whose mesolimbic activation correlated with the expected value estimates of a rational actor made more optimal financial decisions. In Study 2, presentation of expected value information improved decision making in both younger and older adults, but the addition of a distracting secondary task had little impact on decision quality. Remarkably, provision of expected value information improved the performance of older adults to match that of younger adults at baseline. These findings are consistent with the notion that mesolimbic circuits play a critical role in optimal choice, and imply that providing simplified information about expected value may improve financial risk taking across the adult life span.

A commentary on decision-making and organisational legitimacy in the Risk Society.

PubMed

Benn, Suzanne; Brown, Paul; North-Samardzic, Andrea

2009-04-01

Key concepts of Risk Society as elaborated by Ulrich Beck and others (Beck, U., 1992 (trans. Mark Ritter). The Risk Society. Sage Publications, London. Beck, U., 1995, Ecological Politics in the Age of Risk. Polity Press, Cambridge. Beck, U., 1999, World Risk Society. Polity Press, Cambridge. Giddens, A., 1994, Beyond Left and Right. Polity Press, Oxford. Beck, U., Giddens, A. and Lash, S., 1994, Reflexive Modernisation: Politics, Tradition and Aesthetics in the Modern Social Order. Stanford University Press, Stanford. Beck, U., Bonss, W. and Lau, C., 2003, Theory, Culture & Society 2003, Sage, London, 20(2), pp. 1-33.) are illuminated though a case study of managed environmental risk, namely the hexachlorobenzene (HCB) controversy at Botany, a southeast suburb of Sydney. We observe the way multiple stakeholder decision-making plays out a number of Risk Society themes, including the emergence of 'unbounded risk' and of highly 'individualised' and 'reflexive' risk communities. Across several decades, the events of the HCB story support Risk Society predictions of legitimacy problems faced by corporations as they harness technoscientific support for innovation in their products and industrial processes without due recognition of social and environmental risk. Tensions involving identity, trust and access to expert knowledge advance our understanding of democratic 'sub-political' decision-making and ways of distributing environmental risk.

Individual differences in risk-taking tendencies modulate the neural processing of risky and ambiguous decision-making in adolescence.

PubMed

Blankenstein, N E; Schreuders, E; Peper, J S; Crone, E A; van Duijvenvoorde, A C K

2018-05-15

Although many neuroimaging studies have investigated adolescent risk taking, few studies have dissociated between decision-making under risk (known probabilities) and ambiguity (unknown probabilities). Furthermore, which brain regions are sensitive to individual differences in task-related and self-reported risk taking remains elusive. We presented 198 adolescents (11-24 years, an age-range in which individual differences in risk taking are prominent) with an fMRI paradigm that separated decision-making (choosing to gamble or not) and reward outcome processing (gains, no gains) under risky and ambiguous conditions, and related this to task-related and self-reported risk taking. We observed distinct neural mechanisms underlying risky and ambiguous gambling, with risk more prominently associated with activation in parietal cortex, and ambiguity more prominently with dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (PFC), as well as medial PFC during outcome processing. Individual differences in task-related risk taking were positively associated with ventral striatum activation in the decision phase, specifically for risk, and negatively associated with insula and dorsomedial PFC activation, specifically for ambiguity. Moreover, dorsolateral PFC activation in the outcome phase seemed a prominent marker for individual differences in task-related risk taking under ambiguity as well as self-reported daily-life risk taking, in which greater risk taking was associated with reduced activation in dorsolateral PFC. Together, this study demonstrates the importance of considering multiple risk-taking measures, and contextual moderators, in understanding the neural mechanisms underlying adolescent risk taking. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Policy, practice and decision making for zoonotic disease management: water and Cryptosporidium.

PubMed

Austin, Zoë; Alcock, Ruth E; Christley, Robert M; Haygarth, Philip M; Heathwaite, A Louise; Latham, Sophia M; Mort, Maggie; Oliver, David M; Pickup, Roger; Wastling, Jonathan M; Wynne, Brian

2012-04-01

Decision making for zoonotic disease management should be based on many forms of appropriate data and sources of evidence. However, the criteria and timing for policy response and the resulting management decisions are often altered when a disease outbreak occurs and captures full media attention. In the case of waterborne disease, such as the robust protozoa, Cryptosporidium spp, exposure can cause significant human health risks and preventing exposure by maintaining high standards of biological and chemical water quality remains a priority for water companies in the UK. Little has been documented on how knowledge and information is translated between the many stakeholders involved in the management of Cryptosporidium, which is surprising given the different drivers that have shaped management decisions. Such information, coupled with the uncertainties that surround these data is essential for improving future management strategies that minimise disease outbreaks. Here, we examine the interplay between scientific information, the media, and emergent government and company policies to examine these issues using qualitative and quantitative data relating to Cryptosporidium management decisions by a water company in the North West of England. Our results show that political and media influences are powerful drivers of management decisions if fuelled by high profile outbreaks. Furthermore, the strength of the scientific evidence is often constrained by uncertainties in the data, and in the way knowledge is translated between policy levels during established risk management procedures. In particular, under or over-estimating risk during risk assessment procedures together with uncertainty regarding risk factors within the wider environment, was found to restrict the knowledge-base for decision-making in Cryptosporidium management. Our findings highlight some key current and future challenges facing the management of such diseases that are widely applicable to other risk management situations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors and outcomes of decision making for cancer clinical trial participation.

PubMed

Biedrzycki, Barbara A

2011-09-01

To describe factors and outcomes related to the decision-making process regarding participation in a cancer clinical trial. Cross-sectional, descriptive. Urban, academic, National Cancer Institute-designated comprehensive cancer center in the mid-Atlantic United States. 197 patients with advanced gastrointestinal cancer. Mailed survey using one investigator-developed instrument, eight instruments used in published research, and a medical record review. disease context, sociodemographics, hope, quality of life, trust in healthcare system, trust in health professional, preference for research decision control, understanding risks, and information. decision to accept or decline research participation and satisfaction with this decision. All of the factors within the Research Decision Making Model together predicted cancer clinical trial participation and satisfaction with this decision. The most frequently preferred decision-making style for research participation was shared (collaborative) (83%). Multiple factors affect decision making for cancer clinical trial participation and satisfaction with this decision. Shared decision making previously was an unrecognized factor and requires further investigation. Enhancing the process of research decision making may facilitate an increase in cancer clinical trial enrollment rates. Oncology nurses have unique opportunities as educators and researchers to support shared decision making by those who prefer this method for deciding whether to accept or decline cancer clinical trial participation.

Robustness of risk maps and survey networks to knowledge gaps about a new invasive pest

Treesearch

Denys Yemshanov; Frank H. Koch; Yakov Ben-Haim; William D. Smith

2010-01-01

In pest risk assessment it is frequently necessary to make management decisions regarding emerging threats under severe uncertainty. Although risk maps provide useful decision support for invasive alien species, they rarely address knowledge gaps associated with the underlying risk model or how they may change the risk estimates. Failure to recognize uncertainty leads...

Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: A choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers

Treesearch

Matthew J. Wibbenmeyer; Michael S. Hand; David E. Calkin; Tyron J. Venn; Matthew P. Thompson

2013-01-01

Federal policy has embraced risk management as an appropriate paradigm for wildfire management. Economic theory suggests that over repeated wildfire events, potential economic costs and risks of ecological damage are optimally balanced when management decisions are free from biases, risk aversion, and risk seeking. Of primary concern in this article is how managers...

Perturbations in different forms of cost/benefit decision making induced by repeated amphetamine exposure.

PubMed

Floresco, Stan B; Whelan, Jennifer M

2009-08-01

Psychostimulant abuse has been linked to impairments in cost-benefit decision making. We assessed the effects of repeated amphetamine (AMPH) treatment in rodents on two distinct forms of decision making. Separate groups of rats were trained for 26 days on either a probabilistic (risk) or effort-discounting task, each consisting of four discrete blocks of ten choice trials. One lever always delivered a smaller reward (one or two pellets), whereas another lever delivered a four-pellet reward. For risk-discounting, the probability of receiving the larger reward decreased across trial blocks (100-12.5%), whereas on the effort task, four pellets could be obtained after a ratio of presses that increased across blocks (2-20). After training, rats received 15 saline or AMPH injections (escalating from 1 to 5 mg/kg) and were then retested during acute and long-term withdrawal. Repeated AMPH administration increased risky choice 2-3 weeks after drug exposure, whereas these treatments did not alter effort-based decision making in a separate group of animals. However, prior AMPH exposure sensitized the effects of acute AMPH on both forms of decision making, whereby lower doses were effective at inducing "risky" and "lazy" patterns of choice. Repeated AMPH exposure leads to relatively long-lasting increases in risky choice, as well as sensitization to the effects of acute AMPH on different forms of cost/benefit decision making. These findings suggest that maladaptive decision-making processes exhibited by psychostimulant abusers may be caused in part by repeated drug exposure.

Executive function, approach sensitivity, and emotional decision making as influences on risk behaviors in young adults.

PubMed

Patrick, Megan E; Blair, Clancy; Maggs, Jennifer L

2008-05-01

Relations among executive function, behavioral approach sensitivity, emotional decision making, and risk behaviors (alcohol use, drug use, and delinquent behavior) were examined in single female college students (N = 72). Hierarchical multiple regressions indicated a significant Approach Sensitivity x Working Memory interaction in which higher levels of alcohol use were associated with the combination of greater approach tendency and better working memory. This Approach Sensitivity x Working Memory interaction was also marginally significant for drug use and delinquency. Poor emotional decision making, as measured by a gambling task, was also associated with higher levels of alcohol use, but only for individuals low in inhibitory control. Findings point to the complexity of relations among aspects of self-regulation and personality and provide much needed data on neuropsychological correlates of risk behaviors in a nonclinical population.

Interactions between risky decisions, impulsiveness and smoking in young tattooed women

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background According to previous studies, one of the common problems of everyday life of persons with tattoos is risky behavior. However, direct examination of the decision making process, as well as factors which determine women’s risk-taking decisions to get tattoos, have not been conducted. This study investigates whether risk taking decision-making is associated with the self-assessment impulsiveness in tattooed women. Methods Young women (aged 18–35 years) with (N = 60) and without (N = 60) tattoos, performed the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), as a measure of decision-making processes, as well as completing the Barratt Impulsivity Scale (BIS-11). Results Tattooed women showed significantly higher scores in the BIS-11 and preference for disadvantageous decks on the IGT compared to non-tattooed women. There was no significant correlation between risky decision-making in the IGT and BIS-11 impulsivity measures. A significantly higher rate of smoking was observed in the tattooed women. However, the analysis did not reveal a group effect after adjustment for smoking in the IGT and the BIS-11 measures. Conclusions The present study was specifically designed to resolve questions regarding associations between impulsiveness and risky decision-making in tattooed women. It shows that in tattooed women, risky decisions are not a direct result of their self-reported impulsiveness. Smoking does not explain the psychometric differences between tattooed women and controls. PMID:24180254

PRA and Conceptual Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeMott, Diana; Fuqua, Bryan; Wilson, Paul

2013-01-01

Once a project obtains approval, decision makers have to consider a variety of alternative paths for completing the project and meeting the project objectives. How decisions are made involves a variety of elements including: cost, experience, current technology, ideologies, politics, future needs and desires, capabilities, manpower, timing, available information, and for many ventures management needs to assess the elements of risk versus reward. The use of high level Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Models during conceptual design phases provides management with additional information during the decision making process regarding the risk potential for proposed operations and design prototypes. The methodology can be used as a tool to: 1) allow trade studies to compare alternatives based on risk, 2) determine which elements (equipment, process or operational parameters) drives the risk, and 3) provide information to mitigate or eliminate risks early in the conceptual design to lower costs. Creating system models using conceptual design proposals and generic key systems based on what is known today can provide an understanding of the magnitudes of proposed systems and operational risks and facilitates trade study comparisons early in the decision making process. Identifying the "best" way to achieve the desired results is difficult, and generally occurs based on limited information. PRA provides a tool for decision makers to explore how some decisions will affect risk before the project is committed to that path, which can ultimately save time and money.

Adolescent psychological development, parenting styles, and pediatric decision making.

PubMed

Partridge, Brian C

2010-10-01

The United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child risks harm to adolescents insofar as it encourages not only poor decision making by adolescents but also parenting styles that will have an adverse impact on the development of mature decision-making capacities in them. The empirical psychological and neurophysiological data weigh against augmenting and expression of the rights of children. Indeed, the data suggest grounds for expanding parental authority, not limiting its scope. At the very least, any adequate appreciation of the moral claims regarding the authority of parents with respect to the decision-making capacity of adolescents needs to be set within an understanding of the psychological and neurophysiological facts regarding the development of adolescent decision-making capacity.

Effects of acute administration of nicotine, amphetamine, diazepam, morphine, and ethanol on risky decision-making in rats

PubMed Central

Mitchell, Marci R.; Vokes, Colin M.; Blankenship, Amy L.; Simon, Nicholas W.

2011-01-01

Rationale Most individuals can accurately assess the risks and rewards associated with choice alternatives and decide accordingly; however, drug users often display maladaptive decision-making, such that choices are biased toward excessively risky options. Objective The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of a range of drugs of abuse on risky decision-making. Methods Male Long–Evans rats were trained in the Risky Decision-Making Task, in which they chose between two levers, one which produced a small, “safe” food reward and the other which produced a large, “risky” food reward. The large reward was accompanied by the risk of a mild footshock, the probability of which increased over the course of each test session (0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%). Results Nicotine (0.6 mg/kg) and amphetamine (1.5 mg/kg) caused a significant decrease in choice of the large risky reward (decreased risk taking). Diazepam (1.0 mg/kg) caused a significant increase in choice of the large risky reward (increased risk taking), whereas morphine (3.0 mg/kg) caused only a trend toward increased choice of the large risky reward. Ethanol had no effect on choice behavior. Conclusions These results show that acute administration of drugs of abuse can modulate risk taking in a drug-specific manner, either increasing or decreasing preference for highly rewarding, but risky, options. PMID:21638222

Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) as a tool in asset allocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zainol Abidin, Siti Nazifah; Mohd Jaffar, Maheran

2013-04-01

Allocation capital investment into different assets is the best way to balance the risk and reward. This can prevent from losing big amount of money. Thus, the aim of this paper is to help investors in making wise investment decision in asset allocation. This paper proposes modifying and adapting Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model. The AHP model is widely used in various fields of study that are related in decision making. The results of the case studies show that the proposed model can categorize stocks and determine the portion of capital investment. Hence, it can assist investors in decision making process and reduce the risk of loss in stock market investment.

Evolution of Public Participation in the Assessment and Management of Environmental Health Risks: A Brief History of Developments in the United States

PubMed Central

Sexton, Ken

2013-01-01

Significance for public health Risk-based decision making is a core feature of government actions aimed at protecting public health from the adverse effects of environmental hazards. In the past, it has often been an expert-driven, mostly obscure process used by federal agencies to justify and defend regulatory decisions made outside the public arena. But the nature of decision making has changed as it has become apparent that environmental health problems are more complicated, controversial, and costly to solve than originally thought. Meaningful public engagement is now an inherent component of all phases of the risk assessment – risk management paradigm because it promotes stakeholder buy in, taps into unique stakeholder knowledge, and promotes the concept of environmental democracy. In the United States, the risk assessment – risk management paradigm that underpins federal decisions about environmental health risks was first established in 1983. In the beginning, the importance of public participation was not explicitly recognized within the paradigm. Over time, however, it has become evident that not only must risk-based decisions be founded on the best available scientific knowledge and understanding, but also that they must take account of the knowledge, values, and preferences of interested and affected parties, including community members, business people, and environmental advocates. This article examines the gradually expanding role of public participation in risk-based decision making in the United States, and traces its evolution from a peripheral issue labeled as an external pressure to an integral element of the 21st century risk assessment – risk management paradigm. Today, and into the foreseeable future, public participation and stakeholder involvement are intrinsic features of the emerging American regulatory landscape, which emphasizes collaborative approaches for achieving cooperative and cost-effective solutions to complicated and often controversial environmental health problems. PMID:25170489

Evolution of public participation in the assessment and management of environmental health risks: a brief history of developments in the United States.

PubMed

Sexton, Ken

2013-09-02

Significance for public healthRisk-based decision making is a core feature of government actions aimed at protecting public health from the adverse effects of environmental hazards. In the past, it has often been an expert-driven, mostly obscure process used by federal agencies to justify and defend regulatory decisions made outside the public arena. But the nature of decision making has changed as it has become apparent that environmental health problems are more complicated, controversial, and costly to solve than originally thought. Meaningful public engagement is now an inherent component of all phases of the risk assessment - risk management paradigm because it promotes stakeholder buy in, taps into unique stakeholder knowledge, and promotes the concept of environmental democracy.In the United States, the risk assessment - risk management paradigm that underpins federal decisions about environmental health risks was first established in 1983. In the beginning, the importance of public participation was not explicitly recognized within the paradigm. Over time, however, it has become evident that not only must risk-based decisions be founded on the best available scientific knowledge and understanding, but also that they must take account of the knowledge, values, and preferences of interested and affected parties, including community members, business people, and environmental advocates. This article examines the gradually expanding role of public participation in risk-based decision making in the United States, and traces its evolution from a peripheral issue labeled as an external pressure to an integral element of the 21st century risk assessment - risk management paradigm. Today, and into the foreseeable future, public participation and stakeholder involvement are intrinsic features of the emerging American regulatory landscape, which emphasizes collaborative approaches for achieving cooperative and cost-effective solutions to complicated and often controversial environmental health problems.

An investigation of the factors effecting high-risk individuals’ decision-making about prophylactic total gastrectomy and surveillance for hereditary diffuse gastric cancer (HDGC)

PubMed Central

Hallowell, Nina; Badger, Shirlene; Richardson, Sue; Caldas, Carlos; Hardwick, Richard H.; Fitzgerald, Rebecca C.; Lawton, Julia

2018-01-01

Because Hereditary Diffuse Gastric Cancer (HDGC) has an early onset and poor prognosis, individuals who carry a pathogenic (CDH1) mutation in the E-cadherin gene (CDH1) are offered endoscopic surveillance and advised to undergo prophylactic total gastrectomy (PTG) in their early to mid-twenties. Patients not ready or fit to undergo gastrectomy, or in whom the genetic testing result is unknown or ambiguous, are offered surveillance. Little is known about the factors that influence decisions to undergo or decline PTG, making it difficult to provide optimal support for those facing these decisions. Qualitative interviews were carried out with 35 high-risk individuals from the Familial Gastric Cancer Study in the UK. Twenty-seven had previously undergone PTG and eight had been identified as carrying a pathogenic CDH1 mutation but had declined surgery at the time of interview. The interviews explored the experience of decision-making and factors influencing risk-management decisions. The data suggest that decisions to proceed with PTG are influenced by a number of potentially competing factors: objective risk confirmation by genetic testing and/or receiving a positive biopsy; perceived familial cancer burden and associated risk perceptions; perceptions of post-surgical life; an increasing inability to tolerate endoscopic procedures; a concern that surveillance could miss a cancer developing and individual’s life stage. These findings have implications for advising this patient group. PMID:27256430

Functional and Structural Signatures of the Anterior Insula are associated with Risk-taking Tendency of Analgesic Decision-making.

PubMed

Lin, Chia-Shu; Lin, Hsiao-Han; Wu, Shih-Yun

2016-11-28

In a medical context, decision-making is associated with complicated assessment of gains, losses and uncertainty of outcomes. We here provide novel evidence about the brain mechanisms underlying decision-making of analgesic treatment. Thirty-six healthy participants were recruited and completed the Analgesic Decision-making Task (ADT), which quantified individual tendency of risk-taking (RPI), as the frequency of choosing a riskier option to relieve pain. All the participants received resting-state (rs) functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and structural MRI. On rs-functional connectome, degree centrality (DC) of the bilateral anterior insula (aINS) was positively correlated with the RPI. The functional connectivity between the aINS, the nucleus accumbens and multiple brain regions, predominantly the medial frontal cortex, was positively correlated with the RPI. On structural signatures, the RPI was positively correlated with grey matter volume at the right aINS, and such an association was mediated by DC of the left aINS. Regression analyses revealed that both DC of the left aINS and participants' imagined pain relief, as the utility of pain reduction, could predict the individual RPI. The findings suggest that the functional and structural brain signature of the aINS is associated with the individual differences of risk-taking tendency in the context of analgesic decision-making.

Workplace bullying in risk and safety professionals.

PubMed

Brewer, Gayle; Holt, Barry; Malik, Shahzeb

2018-02-01

Previous research demonstrates that workplace bullying impacts the welfare of victimized employees, with further consequences for the organization and profession. There is, however, a paucity of information relating to the bullying directed at risk and safety professionals. The present study was conducted to address this issue. Risk and safety professionals (N=420) completed the Negative Acts Questionnaire - Revised and Brief Cope, and reported the extent to which they had been pressured to make or amend a risk or safety based decision. Those experiencing workplace bullying were more likely to engage in a range of coping behaviors, with exposure to work-related and personal bullying particularly influential. Workplace bullying also predicted pressure to make or change a risk or safety based decision. Work related and physically intimidating bullying were particularly important for this aspect of professional practice. Findings are discussed with regard to current practice and the support available to risk and safety professionals. Risk and safety professionals require additional support in relation to workplace bullying and specifically guidance to resist pressure to make or change a risk or safety based decision. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The angular gyrus and visuospatial attention in decision-making under risk.

PubMed

Studer, Bettina; Cen, Danlu; Walsh, Vincent

2014-12-01

Recent neuroimaging studies on decision-making under risk indicate that the angular gyrus (AG) is sensitive to the probability and variance of outcomes during choice. A separate body of research has established the AG as a key area in visual attention. The current study used repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) in healthy volunteers to test whether the causal contribution of the AG to decision-making is independent of or linked to the guidance of visuospatial attention. A within-subject design compared decision making on a laboratory gambling task under three conditions: following rTMS to the AG, following rTMS to the premotor cortex (PMC, as an active control condition) and without TMS. The task presented two different trial types, 'visual' and 'auditory' trials, which entailed a high versus minimal demand for visuospatial attention, respectively. Our results showed a systematic effect of rTMS to the AG upon decision-making behavior in visual trials. Without TMS and following rTMS to the control region, decision latencies reflected the odds of winning; this relationship was disrupted by rTMS to the AG. In contrast, no significant effects of rTMS to the AG (or to the PMC) upon choice behavior in auditory trials were found. Thus, rTMS to the AG affected decision-making only in the task condition requiring visuospatial attention. The current findings suggest that the AG contributes to decision-making by guiding attention to relevant information about reward and punishment in the visual environment. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Decision Making and Risk Management in Adventure Sports Coaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Collins, Loel; Collins, Dave

2013-01-01

Adventure sport coaches practice in environments that are dynamic and high in risk, both perceived and actual. The inherent risks associated with these activities, individuals' responses and the optimal exploitation of both combine to make the processes of risk management more complex and hazardous than the traditional sports where risk management…

[Treatment Decision-Making Process of Cancer Patients].

PubMed

Lee, Shiu-Yu C Katie

2016-10-01

The decision-making process that is used by cancer patients to determine their treatment has become more multi-foci, difficult and complicated in recent years. This has in part been attributed to the increasing incidence rate of cancer in Taiwan and the rapid development of medical technologies and treatment modalities. Oncology nurses must assist patients and family to make informed and value-based treatment decisions. Decision-making is an information process that involves appraising one's own expectation and values based on his/her knowledge on cancer and treatment options. Because cancer treatment involves risks and uncertainties, and impacts quality of life, the treatment decision-making for cancer is often stressful, or even conflicting. This paper discusses the decision-making behaviors of cancer patients and the decisional conflict, participation, and informational needs that are involved in cancer treatment. The trend toward shared decision-making and decisional support will be also explored in order to facilitate the future development of appropriate clinical interventions and research.

A Methodology for Making Early Comparative Architecture Performance Evaluations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doyle, Gerald S.

2010-01-01

Complex and expensive systems' development suffers from a lack of method for making good system-architecture-selection decisions early in the development process. Failure to make a good system-architecture-selection decision increases the risk that a development effort will not meet cost, performance and schedule goals. This research provides a…

Core Competencies for Shared Decision Making Training Programs: Insights From an International, Interdisciplinary Working Group

PubMed Central

Légaré, France; Moumjid-Ferdjaoui, Nora; Drolet, Renée; Stacey, Dawn; Härter, Martin; Bastian, Hilda; Beaulieu, Marie-Dominique; Borduas, Francine; Charles, Cathy; Coulter, Angela; Desroches, Sophie; Friedrich, Gwendolyn; Gafni, Amiram; Graham, Ian D.; Labrecque, Michel; LeBlanc, Annie; Légaré, Jean; Politi, Mary; Sargeant, Joan; Thomson, Richard

2014-01-01

Shared decision making is now making inroads in health care professionals’ continuing education curriculum, but there is no consensus on what core competencies are required by clinicians for effectively involving patients in health-related decisions. Ready-made programs for training clinicians in shared decision making are in high demand, but existing programs vary widely in their theoretical foundations, length, and content. An international, interdisciplinary group of 25 individuals met in 2012 to discuss theoretical approaches to making health-related decisions, compare notes on existing programs, take stock of stakeholders concerns, and deliberate on core competencies. This article summarizes the results of those discussions. Some participants believed that existing models already provide a sufficient conceptual basis for developing and implementing shared decision making competency-based training programs on a wide scale. Others argued that this would be premature as there is still no consensus on the definition of shared decision making or sufficient evidence to recommend specific competencies for implementing shared decision making. However, all participants agreed that there were 2 broad types of competencies that clinicians need for implementing shared decision making: relational competencies and risk communication competencies. Further multidisciplinary research could broaden and deepen our understanding of core competencies for shared decision making training. PMID:24347105

Risk-based analysis and decision making in multi-disciplinary environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feather, Martin S.; Cornford, Steven L.; Moran, Kelly

2003-01-01

A risk-based decision-making process conceived of and developed at JPL and NASA, has been used to help plan and guide novel technology applications for use on spacecraft. These applications exemplify key challenges inherent in multi-disciplinary design of novel technologies deployed in mission-critical settings. 1) Cross-disciplinary concerns are numerous (e.g., spacecraft involve navigation, propulsion, telecommunications). These concems are cross-coupled and interact in multiple ways (e.g., electromagnetic interference, heat transfer). 2) Time and budget pressures constrain development, operational resources constrain the resulting system (e.g., mass, volume, power). 3) Spacecraft are critical systems that must operate correctly the first time in only partially understood environments, with no chance for repair. 4) Past experience provides only a partial guide: New mission concepts are enhanced and enabled by new technologies, for which past experience is lacking. The decision-making process rests on quantitative assessments of the relationships between three classes of information - objectives (the things the system is to accomplish and constraints on its operation and development), risks (whose occurrence detracts from objectives), and mitigations (options for reducing the likelihood and or severity of risks). The process successfully guides experts to pool their knowledge, using custom-built software to support information gathering and decision-making.

Place your bets: psychophysiological correlates of decision-making under risk.

PubMed

Studer, Bettina; Clark, Luke

2011-06-01

Emotions and their psychophysiological correlates are thought to play an important role in decision-making under risk. We used a novel gambling task to measure psychophysiological responses during selection of explicitly presented risky options and feedback processing. Active-choice trials, in which the participant had to select the size of bet, were compared to fixed-bet, no-choice trials. We further tested how the chances of winning and bet size affected choice behavior and psychophysiological arousal. Individual differences in impulsive and risk-taking traits were assessed. The behavioral results showed sensitivity to the choice requirement and to the chances of winning: Participants were faster to make a response on no-choice trials and when the chances of winning were high. In active-choice trials, electrodermal activity (EDA) increased with bet size during both selection and processing of losses. Cardiac responses were sensitive to choice uncertainty: Stronger selection-related heart rate (HR) decelerations were observed in trials with lower chances of winning, particularly on active-choice trials. Finally, betting behavior and psychophysiological responsiveness were moderately correlated with self-reported impulsivity-related traits. In conclusion, we demonstrate that psychophysiological arousal covaries with risk-sensitive decision-making outside of a learning context. Our results further highlight the differential sensitivities of EDA and HR to psychological features of the decision scenario.

A Decision Making Analysis of Persuasive Argumentation and the Choice Shift Effect

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vinokur, Amiram; And Others

1975-01-01

A subjective expected utility (SEU) decision-making analysis was performed on the content of arguments generated by subjects privately or during group discussion in response to choice-dilemmas shown to shift toward risk and caution. (Editor)

International Patients' Travel Decision Making Process- A Conceptual Framework.

PubMed

Khan, Mohammad Jamal; Chelliah, Shankar; Haron, Mahmod Sabri

2016-02-01

Role of information source, perceived benefits and risks, and destination image has significantly been examined in travel and tourism literature; however, in medical tourism it is yet to be examined thoroughly. The concept discussed in this article is drawn form well established models in tourism literature. The purpose of this research was to identify the source of information, travel benefits and perceived risks related to movement of international patients and develop a conceptual model based on well-established theory. Thorough database search (Science Direct, utmj.org, nih.gov, nchu.edu.tw, palgrave-journals, medretreat, Biomedcentral) was performed to fulfill the objectives of the study. International patients always concern about benefits and risks related to travel. These benefits and risks form images of destination in the minds of international patients. Different sources of information make international patients acquaint about the associated benefits and risks, which later leads to development of intention to visit. This conceptual paper helps in establishing model for decision-making process of international patients in developing visit intention. Ample amount of literature is available detailing different factors involved in travel decision making of international patients; however literature explaining relationship between these factors is scarce.

International Patients’ Travel Decision Making Process- A Conceptual Framework

PubMed Central

KHAN, Mohammad Jamal; CHELLIAH, Shankar; HARON, Mahmod Sabri

2016-01-01

Background: Role of information source, perceived benefits and risks, and destination image has significantly been examined in travel and tourism literature; however, in medical tourism it is yet to be examined thoroughly. The concept discussed in this article is drawn form well established models in tourism literature. Methods: The purpose of this research was to identify the source of information, travel benefits and perceived risks related to movement of international patients and develop a conceptual model based on well-established theory. Thorough database search (Science Direct, utmj.org, nih.gov, nchu.edu.tw, palgrave-journals, medretreat, Biomedcentral) was performed to fulfill the objectives of the study. Results: International patients always concern about benefits and risks related to travel. These benefits and risks form images of destination in the minds of international patients. Different sources of information make international patients acquaint about the associated benefits and risks, which later leads to development of intention to visit. This conceptual paper helps in establishing model for decision-making process of international patients in developing visit intention. Conclusion: Ample amount of literature is available detailing different factors involved in travel decision making of international patients; however literature explaining relationship between these factors is scarce. PMID:27114978

Risk Taking and Decision Making in Kidney Paired Donation: A Qualitative Study by Semistructured Interviews.

PubMed

Baines, L S; Dulku, H; Jindal, R M; Papalois, V

2018-06-01

Despite excellent outcomes of kidney paired donation (KPD), little is known about how a patient's frame (apply cognitive bias) or weight (attribute value) and concerns relating to risk, justice, and equity affect his or her decision-making process. A pilot study consisting of 3 KPD transplant recipients and 3 KPD kidney donors in the last year was conducted to identify and explore themes in decision making and risk taking. The pilot study was followed by the main study comprised of 20 recipients who had already undergone KPD transplantation and 20 donors who had undergone donor nephrectomy. We conducted semistructured interviews in this cohort and analyzed the data thematically. Each donor-recipient pair was interviewed together to facilitate dyadic conversation and provide deeper insight into the decision-making process leading to transplant and donation. Common themes to both recipient and donor decision making included quality of life; characteristics of the unknown donor and post-transplant expectations. Recipient-specific themes included failure to reach life span milestones, experiences of fellow patients, and altruistic desire to expand the donor pool. Donor-specific themes included balancing existing life commitments with the recipient's need for a kidney, equity and mental accounting in kidney exchange (comparable quality of the kidney received versus the kidney donated), and logistical justice for the recipient. Donors and recipients frame and weight the concepts of risk, justice, and equity differently. This may have direct implications to facilitating patient-centered communication and engagement in KPD pairs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stakeholders’ Perspectives on Postmastectomy Breast Reconstruction: Recognizing Ways to Improve Shared Decision Making

PubMed Central

Hasak, Jessica M.; Myckatyn, Terence M.; Grabinski, Victoria F.; Philpott, Sydney E.; Parikh, Rajiv P.

2017-01-01

Background: Postmastectomy breast reconstruction (PMBR) is an elective, preference-sensitive decision made during a stressful, time-pressured period after a cancer diagnosis. Shared decision making (SDM) can improve decision quality about preference-sensitive choices. Stakeholders’ perspectives on ways to support PMBR decision-making were explored. Methods: Forty semi-structured interviews with stakeholders (20 postmastectomy patients, 10 PMBR surgeons, 10 PMBR nurses) were conducted. Clinicians were recruited from diverse practices across the United States. Patients were recruited using purposive sampling with varying PMBR experiences, including no reconstruction. The interview guide was based on an implementation research framework. Themes were identified using grounded theory approach, based on frequency and emotive force conveyed. Results: Engagement in SDM was variable. Some patients wanted more information about PMBR from clinicians, particularly about risks. Some clinicians acknowledged highlighting benefits and downplaying risks. Many patients felt pressured to make a choice by their clinicians. Clinicians who successfully engaged patients through decisions often used outside resources to supplement conversations. Conclusions: Patient–clinician trust was critical to high-quality decisions, and many patients expressed decision regret when they were not engaged in PMBR discussions. Patients often perceived a race- or age-related bias in clinician information sharing. Interventions to support SDM may enhance decision quality and reduce decision regret about PMBR, ultimately improving patient-centered care for women with breast cancer. PMID:29263969

Self-reported strategies in decisions under risk: role of feedback, reasoning abilities, executive functions, short-term-memory, and working memory.

PubMed

Schiebener, Johannes; Brand, Matthias

2015-11-01

In decisions under objective risk conditions information about the decision options' possible outcomes and the rules for outcomes' occurrence are provided. Thus, deciders can base decision-making strategies on probabilistic laws. In many laboratory decision-making tasks, choosing the option with the highest winning probability in all trials (=maximization strategy) is probabilistically regarded the most rational behavior. However, individuals often behave less optimal, especially in case the individuals have lower cognitive functions or in case no feedback about consequences is provided in the situation. It is still unclear which cognitive functions particularly predispose individuals for using successful strategies and which strategies profit from feedback. We investigated 195 individuals with two decision-making paradigms, the Game of Dice Task (GDT) (with and without feedback), and the Card Guessing Game. Thereafter, participants reported which strategies they had applied. Interaction effects (feedback × strategy), effect sizes, and uncorrected single group comparisons suggest that feedback in the GDT tended to be more beneficial to individuals reporting exploratory strategies (e.g., use intuition). In both tasks, the self-reported use of more principled and more rational strategies was accompanied by better decision-making performance and better performances in reasoning and executive functioning tasks. The strategy groups did not significantly differ in most short-term and working-memory tasks. Thus, particularly individual differences in reasoning and executive functions seem to predispose individuals toward particular decision-making strategies. Feedback seems to be useful for individuals who rather explore the decision-making situation instead of following a certain plan.

Women's Values and Preferences for Thromboprophylaxis during Pregnancy: A Comparison of Direct-choice and Decision Analysis using Patient Specific Utilities

PubMed Central

Eckman, Mark H.; Alonso-Coello, Pablo; Guyatt, Gordon H.; Ebrahim, Shanil; Tikkinen, Kari A.O.; Lopes, Luciane Cruz; Neumann, Ignacio; McDonald, Sarah D.; Zhang, Yuqing; Zhou, Qi; Akl, Elie A.; Jacobsen, Ann Flem; Santamaría, Amparo; Annichino-Bizzacchi, Joyce Maria; Bitar, Wael; Sandset, Per Morten; Bates, Shannon M.

2016-01-01

Background Women with a history of venous thromboembolism (VTE) have an increased recurrence risk during pregnancy. Low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) reduces this risk, but is costly, burdensome, and may increase risk of bleeding. The decision to start thromboprophylaxis during pregnancy is sensitive to women's values and preferences. Our objective was to compare women's choices using a holistic approach in which they were presented all of the relevant information (direct-choice) versus a personalized decision analysis in which a mathematical model incorporated their preferences and VTE risk to make a treatment recommendation. Methods Multicenter, international study. Structured interviews were on women with a history of VTE who were pregnant, planning, or considering pregnancy. Women indicated their willingness to receive thromboprophylaxis based on scenarios using personalized estimates of VTE recurrence and bleeding risks. We also obtained women's values for health outcomes using a visual analog scale. We performed individualized decision analyses for each participant and compared model recommendations to decisions made when presented with the direct-choice exercise. Results Of the 123 women in the study, the decision model recommended LMWH for 51 women and recommended against LMWH for 72 women. 12% (6/51) of women for whom the decision model recommended thromboprophylaxis chose not to take LMWH; 72% (52/72) of women for whom the decision model recommended against thromboprophylaxis chose LMWH. Conclusions We observed a high degree of discordance between decisions in the direct-choice exercise and decision model recommendations. Although which approach best captures individuals’ true values remains uncertain, personalized decision support tools presenting results based on personalized risks and values may improve decision making. PMID:26033397

Women's values and preferences for thromboprophylaxis during pregnancy: a comparison of direct-choice and decision analysis using patient specific utilities.

PubMed

Eckman, Mark H; Alonso-Coello, Pablo; Guyatt, Gordon H; Ebrahim, Shanil; Tikkinen, Kari A O; Lopes, Luciane Cruz; Neumann, Ignacio; McDonald, Sarah D; Zhang, Yuqing; Zhou, Qi; Akl, Elie A; Jacobsen, Ann Flem; Santamaría, Amparo; Annichino-Bizzacchi, Joyce Maria; Bitar, Wael; Sandset, Per Morten; Bates, Shannon M

2015-08-01

Women with a history of venous thromboembolism (VTE) have an increased recurrence risk during pregnancy. Low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) reduces this risk, but is costly, burdensome, and may increase risk of bleeding. The decision to start thromboprophylaxis during pregnancy is sensitive to women's values and preferences. Our objective was to compare women's choices using a holistic approach in which they were presented all of the relevant information (direct-choice) versus a personalized decision analysis in which a mathematical model incorporated their preferences and VTE risk to make a treatment recommendation. Multicenter, international study. Structured interviews were on women with a history of VTE who were pregnant, planning, or considering pregnancy. Women indicated their willingness to receive thromboprophylaxis based on scenarios using personalized estimates of VTE recurrence and bleeding risks. We also obtained women's values for health outcomes using a visual analog scale. We performed individualized decision analyses for each participant and compared model recommendations to decisions made when presented with the direct-choice exercise. Of the 123 women in the study, the decision model recommended LMWH for 51 women and recommended against LMWH for 72 women. 12% (6/51) of women for whom the decision model recommended thromboprophylaxis chose not to take LMWH; 72% (52/72) of women for whom the decision model recommended against thromboprophylaxis chose LMWH. We observed a high degree of discordance between decisions in the direct-choice exercise and decision model recommendations. Although which approach best captures individuals' true values remains uncertain, personalized decision support tools presenting results based on personalized risks and values may improve decision making. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decision aids for people facing health treatment or screening decisions.

PubMed

Stacey, Dawn; Légaré, France; Col, Nananda F; Bennett, Carol L; Barry, Michael J; Eden, Karen B; Holmes-Rovner, Margaret; Llewellyn-Thomas, Hilary; Lyddiatt, Anne; Thomson, Richard; Trevena, Lyndal; Wu, Julie H C

2014-01-28

Decision aids are intended to help people participate in decisions that involve weighing the benefits and harms of treatment options often with scientific uncertainty. To assess the effects of decision aids for people facing treatment or screening decisions. For this update, we searched from 2009 to June 2012 in MEDLINE; CENTRAL; EMBASE; PsycINFO; and grey literature. Cumulatively, we have searched each database since its start date including CINAHL (to September 2008). We included published randomized controlled trials of decision aids, which are interventions designed to support patients' decision making by making explicit the decision, providing information about treatment or screening options and their associated outcomes, compared to usual care and/or alternative interventions. We excluded studies of participants making hypothetical decisions. Two review authors independently screened citations for inclusion, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. The primary outcomes, based on the International Patient Decision Aid Standards (IPDAS), were:A) 'choice made' attributes;B) 'decision-making process' attributes.Secondary outcomes were behavioral, health, and health-system effects. We pooled results using mean differences (MD) and relative risks (RR), applying a random-effects model. This update includes 33 new studies for a total of 115 studies involving 34,444 participants. For risk of bias, selective outcome reporting and blinding of participants and personnel were mostly rated as unclear due to inadequate reporting. Based on 7 items, 8 of 115 studies had high risk of bias for 1 or 2 items each.Of 115 included studies, 88 (76.5%) used at least one of the IPDAS effectiveness criteria: A) 'choice made' attributes criteria: knowledge scores (76 studies); accurate risk perceptions (25 studies); and informed value-based choice (20 studies); and B) 'decision-making process' attributes criteria: feeling informed (34 studies) and feeling clear about values (29 studies).A) Criteria involving 'choice made' attributes:Compared to usual care, decision aids increased knowledge (MD 13.34 out of 100; 95% confidence interval (CI) 11.17 to 15.51; n = 42). When more detailed decision aids were compared to simple decision aids, the relative improvement in knowledge was significant (MD 5.52 out of 100; 95% CI 3.90 to 7.15; n = 19). Exposure to a decision aid with expressed probabilities resulted in a higher proportion of people with accurate risk perceptions (RR 1.82; 95% CI 1.52 to 2.16; n = 19). Exposure to a decision aid with explicit values clarification resulted in a higher proportion of patients choosing an option congruent with their values (RR 1.51; 95% CI 1.17 to 1.96; n = 13).B) Criteria involving 'decision-making process' attributes:Decision aids compared to usual care interventions resulted in:a) lower decisional conflict related to feeling uninformed (MD -7.26 of 100; 95% CI -9.73 to -4.78; n = 22) and feeling unclear about personal values (MD -6.09; 95% CI -8.50 to -3.67; n = 18);b) reduced proportions of people who were passive in decision making (RR 0.66; 95% CI 0.53 to 0.81; n = 14); andc) reduced proportions of people who remained undecided post-intervention (RR 0.59; 95% CI 0.47 to 0.72; n = 18).Decision aids appeared to have a positive effect on patient-practitioner communication in all nine studies that measured this outcome. For satisfaction with the decision (n = 20), decision-making process (n = 17), and/or preparation for decision making (n = 3), those exposed to a decision aid were either more satisfied, or there was no difference between the decision aid versus comparison interventions. No studies evaluated decision-making process attributes for helping patients to recognize that a decision needs to be made, or understanding that values affect the choice.C) Secondary outcomes Exposure to decision aids compared to usual care reduced the number of people of choosing major elective invasive surgery in favour of more conservative options (RR 0.79; 95% CI 0.68 to 0.93; n = 15). Exposure to decision aids compared to usual care reduced the number of people choosing to have prostate-specific antigen screening (RR 0.87; 95% CI 0.77 to 0.98; n = 9). When detailed compared to simple decision aids were used, fewer people chose menopausal hormone therapy (RR 0.73; 95% CI 0.55 to 0.98; n = 3). For other decisions, the effect on choices was variable.The effect of decision aids on length of consultation varied from 8 minutes shorter to 23 minutes longer (median 2.55 minutes longer) with 2 studies indicating statistically-significantly longer, 1 study shorter, and 6 studies reporting no difference in consultation length. Groups of patients receiving decision aids do not appear to differ from comparison groups in terms of anxiety (n = 30), general health outcomes (n = 11), and condition-specific health outcomes (n = 11). The effects of decision aids on other outcomes (adherence to the decision, costs/resource use) were inconclusive. There is high-quality evidence that decision aids compared to usual care improve people's knowledge regarding options, and reduce their decisional conflict related to feeling uninformed and unclear about their personal values. There is moderate-quality evidence that decision aids compared to usual care stimulate people to take a more active role in decision making, and improve accurate risk perceptions when probabilities are included in decision aids, compared to not being included. There is low-quality evidence that decision aids improve congruence between the chosen option and the patient's values.New for this updated review is further evidence indicating more informed, values-based choices, and improved patient-practitioner communication. There is a variable effect of decision aids on length of consultation. Consistent with findings from the previous review, decision aids have a variable effect on choices. They reduce the number of people choosing discretionary surgery and have no apparent adverse effects on health outcomes or satisfaction. The effects on adherence with the chosen option, cost-effectiveness, use with lower literacy populations, and level of detail needed in decision aids need further evaluation. Little is known about the degree of detail that decision aids need in order to have a positive effect on attributes of the choice made, or the decision-making process.

Physicians' perspectives on communication and decision making in clinical encounters for treatment of latent tuberculosis infection.

PubMed

Dobler, Claudia C; Bosnic-Anticevich, Sinthia; Armour, Carol L

2018-01-01

The aim of the study was to explore the views of tuberculosis (TB) physicians on treatment of latent TB infection (LTBI), focusing on decision making and communication in clinical practice. 20 Australian TB physicians participated in a semistructured interview in person or over the telephone. Interviews were recorded, transcribed and analysed thematically. The study identified challenges that physicians face when discussing treatment for LTBI with patients. These included difficulties explaining the concept of latency (in particular to patients from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds) and providing guidance to patients while still framing treatment decisions as a choice. Tailored estimates of the risk of developing TB and the risk of developing an adverse effect from LTBI treatment were considered the most important information for decision making and discussion with patients. Physicians acknowledged that there is a significant amount of unwarranted treatment variation, which they attributed to the lack of evidence about the risk-benefit balance of LTBI treatment in certain scenarios and guidelines that refer to the need for case-by-case decision making in many instances. In order to successfully implement LTBI treatment at a clinical level, consideration should be given to research on how to best address communication challenges arising in clinical encounters.

Multi-criteria decision-making for flood risk management: a survey of the current state of the art

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Madruga de Brito, Mariana; Evers, Mariele

2016-04-01

This paper provides a review of multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) applications to flood risk management, seeking to highlight trends and identify research gaps. A total of 128 peer-reviewed papers published from 1995 to June 2015 were systematically analysed. Results showed that the number of flood MCDM publications has exponentially grown during this period, with over 82 % of all papers published since 2009. A wide range of applications were identified, with most papers focusing on ranking alternatives for flood mitigation, followed by risk, hazard, and vulnerability assessment. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was the most popular method, followed by Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and Simple Additive Weighting (SAW). Although there is greater interest in MCDM, uncertainty analysis remains an issue and was seldom applied in flood-related studies. In addition, participation of multiple stakeholders has been generally fragmented, focusing on particular stages of the decision-making process, especially on the definition of criteria weights. Therefore, addressing the uncertainties around stakeholders' judgments and endorsing an active participation in all steps of the decision-making process should be explored in future applications. This could help to increase the quality of decisions and the implementation of chosen measures.

Patient Understanding of the Risks and Benefits of Biologic Therapies in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Insights from a Large-scale Analysis of Social Media Platforms.

PubMed

Martinez, Bibiana; Dailey, Francis; Almario, Christopher V; Keller, Michelle S; Desai, Mansee; Dupuy, Taylor; Mosadeghi, Sasan; Whitman, Cynthia; Lasch, Karen; Ursos, Lyann; Spiegel, Brennan M R

2017-07-01

Few studies have examined inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients' knowledge and understanding of biologic therapies outside traditional surveys. Here, we used social media data to examine IBD patients' understanding of the risks and benefits associated with biologic therapies and how this affects decision-making. We collected posts from Twitter and e-forum discussions from >3000 social media sites posted between June 27, 2012 and June 27, 2015. Guided by natural language processing, we identified posts with specific IBD keywords that discussed the risks and/or benefits of biologics. We then manually coded the resulting posts and performed qualitative analysis using ATLAS.ti software. A hierarchical coding structure was developed based on the keyword list and relevant themes were identified through manual coding. We examined 1598 IBD-related posts, of which 452 (28.3%) centered on the risks and/or benefits of biologics. There were 5 main themes: negative experiences and concerns with biologics (n = 247; 54.6%), decision-making surrounding biologic use (n = 169; 37.4%), positive experiences with biologics (n = 168; 37.2%), information seeking from peers (n = 125; 27.7%), and cost (n = 38; 8.4%). Posts describing negative experiences primarily commented on side effects from biologics, concerns about potential side effects and increased cancer risk, and pregnancy safety concerns. Posts on decision-making focused on nonbiologic treatment options, hesitation to initiate biologics, and concerns about changing or discontinuing regimens. Social media reveals a wide range of themes governing patients' experience and choice with IBD biologics. The complexity of navigating their risk-benefit profiles suggests merit in creating online tailored decision tools to support IBD patients' decision-making with biologic therapies.

Effects of selective serotonin reuptake inhibition on neural activity related to risky decisions and monetary rewards in healthy males.

PubMed

Macoveanu, Julian; Fisher, Patrick M; Haahr, Mette E; Frokjaer, Vibe G; Knudsen, Gitte M; Siebner, Hartwig R

2014-10-01

Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) such as fluoxetine are commonly prescribed antidepressant drugs targeting the dysfunctional serotonin (5-HT) system, yet little is known about the functional effects of prolonged serotonin reuptake inhibition in healthy individuals. Here we used functional MRI (fMRI) to investigate how a three-week fluoxetine intervention influences neural activity related to risk taking and reward processing. Employing a double-blinded parallel-group design, 29 healthy young males were randomly assigned to receive 3 weeks of a daily dose of 40 mg fluoxetine or placebo. Participants underwent task-related fMRI prior to and after the three-week intervention while performing a card gambling task. The task required participants to choose between two decks of cards. Choices were associated with different risk levels and potential reward magnitudes. Relative to placebo, the SSRI intervention did not alter individual risk-choice preferences, but modified neural activity during decision-making and reward processing: During the choice phase, SSRI reduced the neural response to increasing risk in lateral orbitofrontal cortex, a key structure for value-based decision-making. During the outcome phase, a midbrain region showed an independent decrease in the responsiveness to rewarding outcomes. This midbrain cluster included the raphe nuclei from which serotonergic modulatory projections originate to both cortical and subcortical regions. The findings corroborate the involvement of the normally functioning 5HT-system in decision-making under risk and processing of monetary rewards. The data suggest that prolonged SSRI treatment might reduce emotional engagement by reducing the impact of risk during decision-making or the impact of reward during outcome evaluation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Incorporating patient-preference evidence into regulatory decision making.

PubMed

Ho, Martin P; Gonzalez, Juan Marcos; Lerner, Herbert P; Neuland, Carolyn Y; Whang, Joyce M; McMurry-Heath, Michelle; Hauber, A Brett; Irony, Telba

2015-10-01

Patients have a unique role in deciding what treatments should be available for them and regulatory agencies should take their preferences into account when making treatment approval decisions. This is the first study designed to obtain quantitative patient-preference evidence to inform regulatory approval decisions by the Food and Drug Administration Center for Devices and Radiological Health. Five-hundred and forty United States adults with body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m(2) evaluated tradeoffs among effectiveness, safety, and other attributes of weight-loss devices in a scientific survey. Discrete-choice experiments were used to quantify the importance of safety, effectiveness, and other attributes of weight-loss devices to obese respondents. A tool based on these measures is being used to inform benefit-risk assessments for premarket approval of medical devices. Respondent choices yielded preference scores indicating their relative value for attributes of weight-loss devices in this study. We developed a tool to estimate the minimum weight loss acceptable by a patient to receive a device with a given risk profile and the maximum mortality risk tolerable in exchange for a given weight loss. For example, to accept a device with 0.01 % mortality risk, a risk tolerant patient will require about 10 % total body weight loss lasting 5 years. Patient preference evidence was used make regulatory decision making more patient-centered. In addition, we captured the heterogeneity of patient preferences allowing market approval of effective devices for risk tolerant patients. CDRH is using the study tool to define minimum clinical effectiveness to evaluate new weight-loss devices. The methods presented can be applied to a wide variety of medical products. This study supports the ongoing development of a guidance document on incorporating patient preferences into medical-device premarket approval decisions.

Public health decisions: Actions and consequences☆

PubMed Central

Pohl, H.R.; Jones, D.E.; Holler, J.S.; Murray, H.E.

2017-01-01

The goal of public health is to promote the best possible health for the whole population. Public health issues are numerous and can be unbelievably complex in form, scope, and possible consequence. Most public health decisions involve assessing several different options, weighing the respective benefits and risks of those options, and making difficult decisions that hopefully provide the greatest benefit to the affected populations. Many risk management decisions involve a variety of societal factors which modify risk assessment choices. The purpose of this paper is to point out difficulties in making decisions that impact public health. The intent of such decisions is to improve public health, but as illustrated in the paper, there can be unintended adverse consequences. Such unplanned issues require continued attention and efforts for responsible officials in the protection of environmental public health. This article presents examples of such events, when in the past, it was necessary to assess and regulate a number of potentially hazardous chemicals commonly used as insecticides, gasoline additives, and wood preservatives. PMID:25092130

Value of information analysis for interventional and counterfactual Bayesian networks in forensic medical sciences.

PubMed

Constantinou, Anthony Costa; Yet, Barbaros; Fenton, Norman; Neil, Martin; Marsh, William

2016-01-01

Inspired by real-world examples from the forensic medical sciences domain, we seek to determine whether a decision about an interventional action could be subject to amendments on the basis of some incomplete information within the model, and whether it would be worthwhile for the decision maker to seek further information prior to suggesting a decision. The method is based on the underlying principle of Value of Information to enhance decision analysis in interventional and counterfactual Bayesian networks. The method is applied to two real-world Bayesian network models (previously developed for decision support in forensic medical sciences) to examine the average gain in terms of both Value of Information (average relative gain ranging from 11.45% and 59.91%) and decision making (potential amendments in decision making ranging from 0% to 86.8%). We have shown how the method becomes useful for decision makers, not only when decision making is subject to amendments on the basis of some unknown risk factors, but also when it is not. Knowing that a decision outcome is independent of one or more unknown risk factors saves us from the trouble of seeking information about the particular set of risk factors. Further, we have also extended the assessment of this implication to the counterfactual case and demonstrated how answers about interventional actions are expected to change when some unknown factors become known, and how useful this becomes in forensic medical science. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Moving toward comprehensive acute heart failure risk assessment in the emergency department: the importance of self-care and shared decision making.

PubMed

Collins, Sean P; Storrow, Alan B

2013-08-01

Nearly 700,000 emergency department (ED) visits were due to acute heart failure (AHF) in 2009. Most visits result in a hospital admission and account for the largest proportion of a projected $70 billion to be spent on heart failure care by 2030. ED-based risk prediction tools in AHF rarely impact disposition decision making. This is a major factor contributing to the 80% admission rate for ED patients with AHF, which has remained unchanged over the last several years. Self-care behaviors such as symptom monitoring, medication taking, dietary adherence, and exercise have been associated with decreased hospital readmissions, yet self-care remains largely unaddressed in ED patients with AHF and thus represents a significant lost opportunity to improve patient care and decrease ED visits and hospitalizations. Furthermore, shared decision making encourages collaborative interaction between patients, caregivers, and providers to drive a care path based on mutual agreement. The observation that “difficult decisions now will simplify difficult decisions later” has particular relevance to the ED, given this is the venue for many such issues. We hypothesize patients as complex and heterogeneous as ED patients with AHF may need both an objective evaluation of physiologic risk as well as an evaluation of barriers to ideal self-care, along with strategies to overcome these barriers. Combining physician gestalt, physiologic risk prediction instruments, an evaluation of self-care, and an information exchange between patient and provider using shared decision making may provide the critical inertia necessary to discharge patients home after a brief ED evaluation.

Informed Decision Making: Assessment of the Quality of Physician Communication about Prostate Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment.

PubMed

Holmes-Rovner, Margaret; Montgomery, Jeffrey S; Rovner, David R; Scherer, Laura D; Whitfield, Jesse; Kahn, Valerie C; Merkle, Edgar C; Ubel, Peter A; Fagerlin, Angela

2015-11-01

Little is known about how physicians present diagnosis and treatment planning in routine practice in preference-sensitive treatment decisions. We evaluated completeness and quality of informed decision making in localized prostate cancer post biopsy encounters. We analyzed audio-recorded office visits of 252 men with presumed localized prostate cancer (Gleason 6 and Gleason 7 scores) who were seeing 45 physicians at 4 Veterans Affairs Medical Centers. Data were collected between September 2008 and May 2012 in a trial of 2 decision aids (DAs). Braddock's previously validated Informed Decision Making (IDM) system was used to measure quality. Latent variable models for ordinal data examined the relationship of IDM score to treatment received. Mean IDM score showed modest quality (7.61±2.45 out of 18) and high variability. Treatment choice and risks and benefits were discussed in approximately 95% of encounters. However, in more than one-third of encounters, physicians provided a partial set of treatment options and omitted surveillance as a choice. Informing quality was greater in patients treated with surveillance (β = 1.1, p = .04). Gleason score (7 vs 6) and lower age were often cited as reasons to exclude surveillance. Patient preferences were elicited in the majority of cases, but not used to guide treatment planning. Encounter time was modestly correlated with IDM score (r = 0.237, p = .01). DA type was not associated with IDM score. Physicians informed patients of options and risks and benefits, but infrequently engaged patients in core shared decision-making processes. Despite patients having received DAs, physicians rarely provided an opportunity for preference-driven decision making. More attention to the underused patient decision-making and engagement elements could result in improved shared decision making. © The Author(s) 2015.

Selective impairment of decision making under ambiguity in alexithymia.

PubMed

Zhang, Lei; Wang, Xue; Zhu, Yu; Li, Hongchen; Zhu, Chunyan; Yu, Fengqiong; Wang, Kai

2017-11-28

Alexithymia is characterised by difficulties identifying and describing emotions. Few studies have investigated how alexithymia influences decision-making under different conditions (ambiguity and risk). This study aimed to examine whether alexithymia contributes to impairment in decision-making. This study included 42 participants with high scores in the Chinese version of Toronto Alexithymia Scale (alexithymia group), and 44 matched subjects with low scores (control group). Decision-making was measured using the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) and the Game of Dice Task (GDT). The main findings of this study revealed selective deficits in IGT performance for the alexithymia group, while GDT performance was unimpaired when compared with the control group. In IGT, total netscores were lower for the alexithymia group compared to the control group, particularly with regard to block 5. Moreover, the alexithymia individuals selected significantly more adverse cards than the controls, indicating significant decision-making impairments. Alexithymia selectively influences decision-making under ambiguity.

Integration of professional judgement and decision-making in high-level adventure sports coaching practice.

PubMed

Collins, Loel; Collins, Dave

2015-01-01

This study examined the integration of professional judgement and decision-making processes in adventure sports coaching. The study utilised a thematic analysis approach to investigate the decision-making practices of a sample of high-level adventure sports coaches over a series of sessions. Results revealed that, in order to make judgements and decisions in practice, expert coaches employ a range of practical and pedagogic management strategies to create and opportunistically use time for decision-making. These approaches include span of control and time management strategies to facilitate the decision-making process regarding risk management, venue selection, aims, objectives, session content, and differentiation of the coaching process. The implication for coaches, coach education, and accreditation is the recognition and training of the approaches that "create time" for the judgements in practice, namely "creating space to think". The paper concludes by offering a template for a more expertise-focused progression in adventure sports coaching.

A brief history of decision making.

PubMed

Buchanan, Leigh; O'Connell, Andrew

2006-01-01

Sometime around the middle of the past century, telephone executive Chester Barnard imported the term decision making from public administration into the business world. There it began to replace narrower terms, like "resource allocation" and "policy making," shifting the way managers thought about their role from continuous, Hamlet-like deliberation toward a crisp series of conclusions reached and actions taken. Yet, decision making is, of course, a broad and ancient human pursuit, flowing back to a time when people sought guidance from the stars. From those earliest days, we have strived to invent better tools for the purpose, from the Hindu-Arabic systems for numbering and algebra, to Aristotle's systematic empiricism, to friar Occam's advances in logic, to Francis Bacon's inductive reasoning, to Descartes's application of the scientific method. A growing sophistication with managing risk, along with a nuanced understanding of human behavior and advances in technology that support and mimic cognitive processes, has improved decision making in many situations. Even so, the history of decision-making strategies--captured in this time line and examined in the four accompanying essays on risk, group dynamics, technology, and instinct--has not marched steadily toward perfect rationalism. Twentieth-century theorists showed that the costs of acquiring information lead executives to make do with only good-enough decisions. Worse, people decide against their own economic interests even when they know better. And in the absence of emotion, it's impossible to make any decisions at all. Erroneous framing, bounded awareness, excessive optimism: The debunking of Descartes's rational man threatens to swamp our confidence in our choices. Is it really surprising, then, that even as technology dramatically increases our access to information, Malcolm Gladwell extols the virtues of gut decisions made, literally, in the blink of an eye?

Evaluation of a Decision-Making Curriculum for Teaching Adolescents with Disabilities to Resist Negative Peer Pressure.

PubMed

Khemka, Ishita; Hickson, Linda; Mallory, Sarah B

2016-07-01

This study was designed to assess the impact of a decision-making curriculum (PEER-DM) on the social peer relationship knowledge and self-protective decision-making skills of adolescents with disabilities in hypothetical situations involving negative peer pressure. A randomized design was used to assign students with disabilities from self-contained special education classes to an intervention group (n = 22) or a wait-list control group (n = 20). ANCOVA analyses, using pretest scores as covariates, indicated that students who were trained on PEER-DM had significantly higher effective decision-making action and correct risk perception scores, relative to participants in the control group. This study provides supporting evidence that PEER-DM is a promising intervention for students with disabilities, including those with identified autism spectrum disorders, during transition years to help them develop a better understanding of positive and negative peer relationships and learn systematic decision-making skills for improved handling of social situations in the school and community, especially situations involving negative peer pressure. The study adds credence to using systematic, strategy-based decision making interventions designed to address the cognitive, emotional and motivational processes underlying adolescent decision making in sensitive interpersonal situations involving peer pressure. The study points to the lack of preparedness to handle situations of negative peer pressure as a serious social and health risk for adolescents with disabilities that deserves urgent and concerted attention in transition services programming. Implications for future curriculum-development efforts and replication of treatment findings are discussed. Future research examining disability-specific patterns of decision-making in peer situations and comparisons with typically developing populations is recommended.

Risky decision-making under risk in schizophrenia: A deliberate choice?

PubMed

Pedersen, Anya; Göder, Robert; Tomczyk, Samuel; Ohrmann, Patricia

2017-09-01

Patients with schizophrenia reveal impaired decision-making strategies causing social, financial and health care problems. The extent to which deficits in decision-making reflect intentional risky choices in schizophrenia is still under debate. Based on previous studies we expected patients with schizophrenia to reveal a riskier performance on the GDT and to make more disadvantageous decisions on the IGT. In the present study, we investigated 38 patients with schizophrenia and 38 matched healthy control subjects with two competing paradigms regarding feedback: (1) The Game of Dice Task (GDT), in which the probabilities of winning or losing are stable and explicitly disclosed to the subject, to assess decision-making under risk and (2) the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), which requires subjects to infer the probabilities of winning or losing from feedback, to investigate decision-making under ambiguity. Patients with schizophrenia revealed an overall riskier performance on the GDT; although they adjusted their strategy over the course of the GDT, they still made significantly more disadvantageous choices than controls. More positive symptoms in patients with schizophrenia indicated by higher PANSS positive scores were associated with riskier choices and less use of negative feedback. Compared to healthy controls, they were not impaired in net score but chose more disadvantageous cards than controls on the first block of the IGT. Effects of medication at the time of testing cannot be ruled out. Our findings suggest that patients with schizophrenia make riskier decisions and are less able to regulate their decision-making to implement advantageous strategies, even when the probabilities of winning or losing are explicitly disclosed. The dissociation between performance on the GDT and IGT suggests a pronounced impairment of executive functions related to the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decision making: the neuroethological turn

PubMed Central

Pearson, John M.; Watson, Karli K.; Platt, Michael L.

2014-01-01

Neuroeconomics applies models from economics and psychology to inform neurobiological studies of choice. This approach has revealed neural signatures of concepts like value, risk, and ambiguity, which are known to influence decision-making. Such observations have led theorists to hypothesize a single, unified decision process that mediates choice behavior via a common neural currency for outcomes like food, money, or social praise. In parallel, recent neuroethological studies of decision-making have focused on natural behaviors like foraging, mate choice, and social interactions. These decisions strongly impact evolutionary fitness and thus are likely to have played a key role in shaping the neural circuits that mediate decision-making. This approach has revealed a suite of computational motifs that appear to be shared across a wide variety of organisms. We argue that the existence of deep homologies in the neural circuits mediating choice may have profound implications for understanding human decision-making in health and disease. PMID:24908481

A randomized trial of decision-making in asymptomatic carotid stenosis.

PubMed

Silver, B; Zaman, I F; Ashraf, K; Majed, Y; Norwood, E M; Schuh, L A; Smith, B J; Smith, R E; Schultz, L R

2012-01-31

We sought to evaluate whether different presentation formats, presenter characteristics, and patient characteristics affect decision-making in asymptomatic carotid stenosis. Subjects included individuals presenting to a neurology clinic. Participants included those over age 18 without known carotid stenosis. Subjects were randomized to a 30-second video with 1 of 5 presentation formats (absolute risk, absolute event-free survival, annualized absolute risk, relative risk, and a qualitative description) delivered by 1 of 4 presenter physicians (black woman, white woman, black man, white man). Subjects then completed a one-page form regarding background demographics and their decision regarding treatment choice. A total of 409 subjects watched the video and completed the survey. Overall, 48.4% of subjects chose surgery. Presentation format strongly predicted choice of surgery (qualitative [64%], relative risk [63%], absolute risk [43%], absolute event-free survival [37%], and annualized absolute risk [35%], p < 0.001). There was a trend for younger age (mean age 52 vs 55, p = 0.054), male gender (53% vs 45%, p = 0.08), and advanced education (42% for high school education or less vs 52% for more than high school education, p = 0.052) to predict surgery choice. Gender and race of presenter, and race of subject, had no influence on the choice of treatment. Presentation format (information framing) strongly determines patient decision-making in asymptomatic carotid stenosis. Subject age, gender, and education level may also influence the decision. Clinicians should consider the influence of these variables when counseling patients.

Decisions during negatively-framed messages yield smaller risk-aversion-related brain activation in substance-dependent individuals.

PubMed

Fukunaga, Rena; Bogg, Tim; Finn, Peter R; Brown, Joshua W

2013-12-01

A sizable segment of addiction research investigates the effects of persuasive message appeals on risky and deleterious behaviors. However, to date, little research has examined how various forms of message framing and corresponding behavioral choices might by mediated by risk-related brain regions. Using event-related functional MRI, we investigated brain regions hypothesized to mediate the influence of message appeals on decision making in substance-dependent (SD) compared with nonsubstance-dependent (non-SD) individuals. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) was modified to include positively-framed, negatively-framed, and control messages about long-term deck payoffs. In the positively-framed condition, the SD and non-SD groups showed improved decision-making performance that corresponded to higher risk-aversion-related brain activity in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and anterior insula (AI). In contrast, in the negatively-framed condition, the SD group showed poorer performance that corresponded to lower risk-aversion-related brain activity in the AI region. In addition, only the non-SD group showed a positive association between decision quality and greater risk-related activity in the ACC, regardless of message type. The findings suggest substance-dependent individuals may have reduced neurocognitive sensitivity in the ACC and AI regions involved in risk perception and aversion during decision-making, especially in response to framed messages that emphasize reduced prospects for long-term gains. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.