Multiobjective Decision Making Policies and Coordination Mechanisms in Hierarchical Organizations: Results of an Agent-Based Simulation

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

This paper analyses how different coordination modes and different multiobjective decision making approaches interfere with each other in hierarchical organizations. The investigation is based on an agent-based simulation. We apply a modified NK-model in which we map multiobjective decision making as adaptive walk on multiple performance landscapes, whereby each landscape represents one objective. We find that the impact of the coordination mode on the performance and the speed of performance improvement is critically affected by the selected multiobjective decision making approach. In certain setups, the performances achieved with the more complex multiobjective decision making approaches turn out to be less sensitive to the coordination mode than the performances achieved with the less complex multiobjective decision making approaches. Furthermore, we present results on the impact of the nature of interactions among decisions on the achieved performance in multiobjective setups. Our results give guidance on how to control the performance contribution of objectives to overall performance and answer the question how effective certain multiobjective decision making approaches perform under certain circumstances (coordination mode and interdependencies among decisions). PMID:25152926

INTEGRATING DATA ANALYTICS AND SIMULATION METHODS TO SUPPORT MANUFACTURING DECISION MAKING

PubMed Central

Kibira, Deogratias; Hatim, Qais; Kumara, Soundar; Shao, Guodong

2017-01-01

Modern manufacturing systems are installed with smart devices such as sensors that monitor system performance and collect data to manage uncertainties in their operations. However, multiple parameters and variables affect system performance, making it impossible for a human to make informed decisions without systematic methodologies and tools. Further, the large volume and variety of streaming data collected is beyond simulation analysis alone. Simulation models are run with well-prepared data. Novel approaches, combining different methods, are needed to use this data for making guided decisions. This paper proposes a methodology whereby parameters that most affect system performance are extracted from the data using data analytics methods. These parameters are used to develop scenarios for simulation inputs; system optimizations are performed on simulation data outputs. A case study of a machine shop demonstrates the proposed methodology. This paper also reviews candidate standards for data collection, simulation, and systems interfaces. PMID:28690363

RPA Field Simulations:Dilemma Training for Legal and Ethical Decision Making

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-07

Simulation  Two phases in RPA Field Simulation – classroom phase and field phase  Purpose: link theoretical understanding/ moral reasoning with...rapid, informed decision-making/ moral behavior IRREGULAR WARFARE  U.S. dominates conventional warfare, but irregular warfare falls under Things...aspects: Mental simulation of action Modify Implement Will it work? MORAL REASONING/BEHAVIOR Military-Leader Responsibility requires

Exchange Service Station Gasoline Pumping Operation Simulation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-06-01

an event step simulation model of the Naval operation.s The model has been developed as a management tool and aid to decision making. The environment...has been developed as a management tool and aid to decision making. The environment in which the system operates is discussed and the significant...of the variables such as arrival rates; while others are primarily controlled by managerial decision making, for example the number of pumps available

Enhancing nurse and physician collaboration in clinical decision making through high-fidelity interdisciplinary simulation training.

PubMed

Maxson, Pamela M; Dozois, Eric J; Holubar, Stefan D; Wrobleski, Diane M; Dube, Joyce A Overman; Klipfel, Janee M; Arnold, Jacqueline J

2011-01-01

To determine whether interdisciplinary simulation team training can positively affect registered nurse and/or physician perceptions of collaboration in clinical decision making. Between March 1 and April 21, 2009, a convenience sample of volunteer nurses and physicians was recruited to undergo simulation training consisting of a team response to 3 clinical scenarios. Participants completed the Collaboration and Satisfaction About Care Decisions (CSACD) survey before training and at 2 weeks and 2 months after training. Differences in CSACD summary scores between the time points were assessed with paired t tests. Twenty-eight health care professionals (19 nurses, 9 physicians) underwent simulation training. Nurses were of similar age to physicians (27.3 vs 34.5 years; p = .82), were more likely to be women (95.0% vs 12.5%; p < .001), and were less likely to have undergone prior simulation training (0% vs 37.5%; p = .02). The pretest showed that physicians were more likely to perceive that open communication exists between nurses and physicians (p = .04) and that both medical and nursing concerns influence the decision-making process (p = .02). Pretest CSACD analysis revealed that most participants were dissatisfied with the decision-making process. The CSACD summary score showed significant improvement from baseline to 2 weeks (4.2 to 5.1; p < .002), a trend that persisted at 2 months (p < .002). Team training using high-fidelity simulation scenarios promoted collaboration between nurses and physicians and enhanced the patient care decision-making process.

Design and Evaluation of Simulations for the Development of Complex Decision-Making Skills.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartley, Roger; Varley, Glen

2002-01-01

Command and Control Training Using Simulation (CACTUS) is a computer digital mapping system used by police to manage large-scale public events. Audio and video records of adaptive training scenarios using CACTUS show how the simulation develops decision-making skills for strategic and tactical event management. (SK)

Dynamic Decision Making under Uncertainty and Partial Information

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-01-30

order to address these problems, we investigated efficient computational methodologies for dynamic decision making under uncertainty and partial...information. In the course of this research, we developed and studied efficient simulation-based methodologies for dynamic decision making under...uncertainty and partial information; (ii) studied the application of these decision making models and methodologies to practical problems, such as those

Case Study: An Examination of the Decision Making Process for Selecting Simulations for an Online MBA Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neely, Pat; Tucker, Jan

2013-01-01

Purpose: Simulations are designed as activities which imitate real world scenarios and are often used to teach and enhance skill building. The purpose of this case study is to examine the decision making process and outcomes of a faculty committee tasked with examining simulations in the marketplace to determine if the simulations could be used as…

A hybrid fuzzy logic/constraint satisfaction problem approach to automatic decision making in simulation game models.

PubMed

Braathen, Sverre; Sendstad, Ole Jakob

2004-08-01

Possible techniques for representing automatic decision-making behavior approximating human experts in complex simulation model experiments are of interest. Here, fuzzy logic (FL) and constraint satisfaction problem (CSP) methods are applied in a hybrid design of automatic decision making in simulation game models. The decision processes of a military headquarters are used as a model for the FL/CSP decision agents choice of variables and rulebases. The hybrid decision agent design is applied in two different types of simulation games to test the general applicability of the design. The first application is a two-sided zero-sum sequential resource allocation game with imperfect information interpreted as an air campaign game. The second example is a network flow stochastic board game designed to capture important aspects of land manoeuvre operations. The proposed design is shown to perform well also in this complex game with a very large (billionsize) action set. Training of the automatic FL/CSP decision agents against selected performance measures is also shown and results are presented together with directions for future research.

Enhancing Nurse and Physician Collaboration in Clinical Decision Making Through High-fidelity Interdisciplinary Simulation Training

PubMed Central

Maxson, Pamela M.; Dozois, Eric J.; Holubar, Stefan D.; Wrobleski, Diane M.; Dube, Joyce A. Overman; Klipfel, Janee M.; Arnold, Jacqueline J.

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether interdisciplinary simulation team training can positively affect registered nurse and/or physician perceptions of collaboration in clinical decision making. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: Between March 1 and April 21, 2009, a convenience sample of volunteer nurses and physicians was recruited to undergo simulation training consisting of a team response to 3 clinical scenarios. Participants completed the Collaboration and Satisfaction About Care Decisions (CSACD) survey before training and at 2 weeks and 2 months after training. Differences in CSACD summary scores between the time points were assessed with paired t tests. RESULTS: Twenty-eight health care professionals (19 nurses, 9 physicians) underwent simulation training. Nurses were of similar age to physicians (27.3 vs 34.5 years; p=.82), were more likely to be women (95.0% vs 12.5%; p<.001), and were less likely to have undergone prior simulation training (0% vs 37.5%; p=.02). The pretest showed that physicians were more likely to perceive that open communication exists between nurses and physicians (p=.04) and that both medical and nursing concerns influence the decision-making process (p=.02). Pretest CSACD analysis revealed that most participants were dissatisfied with the decision-making process. The CSACD summary score showed significant improvement from baseline to 2 weeks (4.2 to 5.1; p<.002), a trend that persisted at 2 months (p<.002). CONCLUSION: Team training using high-fidelity simulation scenarios promoted collaboration between nurses and physicians and enhanced the patient care decision-making process. PMID:21193653

Computer modeling of human decision making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gevarter, William B.

1991-01-01

Models of human decision making are reviewed. Models which treat just the cognitive aspects of human behavior are included as well as models which include motivation. Both models which have associated computer programs, and those that do not, are considered. Since flow diagrams, that assist in constructing computer simulation of such models, were not generally available, such diagrams were constructed and are presented. The result provides a rich source of information, which can aid in construction of more realistic future simulations of human decision making.

Using Social Simulations to Assess and Train Potential Leaders to Make Effective Decisions in Turbulent Environments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hunsaker, L. Phillip

2007-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to describe two social simulations created to assess leadership potential and train leaders to make effective decisions in turbulent environments. One is set in the novel environment of a lunar moon colony and the other is a military combat command. The research generated from these simulations for assessing…

Decision Making in Computer-Simulated Experiments.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suits, J. P.; Lagowski, J. J.

A set of interactive, computer-simulated experiments was designed to respond to the large range of individual differences in aptitude and reasoning ability generally exhibited by students enrolled in first-semester general chemistry. These experiments give students direct experience in the type of decision making needed in an experimental setting.…

Simulation of California's Major Reservoirs Outflow Using Data Mining Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, T.; Gao, X.; Sorooshian, S.

2014-12-01

The reservoir's outflow is controlled by reservoir operators, which is different from the upstream inflow. The outflow is more important than the reservoir's inflow for the downstream water users. In order to simulate the complicated reservoir operation and extract the outflow decision making patterns for California's 12 major reservoirs, we build a data-driven, computer-based ("artificial intelligent") reservoir decision making tool, using decision regression and classification tree approach. This is a well-developed statistical and graphical modeling methodology in the field of data mining. A shuffled cross validation approach is also employed to extract the outflow decision making patterns and rules based on the selected decision variables (inflow amount, precipitation, timing, water type year etc.). To show the accuracy of the model, a verification study is carried out comparing the model-generated outflow decisions ("artificial intelligent" decisions) with that made by reservoir operators (human decisions). The simulation results show that the machine-generated outflow decisions are very similar to the real reservoir operators' decisions. This conclusion is based on statistical evaluations using the Nash-Sutcliffe test. The proposed model is able to detect the most influential variables and their weights when the reservoir operators make an outflow decision. While the proposed approach was firstly applied and tested on California's 12 major reservoirs, the method is universally adaptable to other reservoir systems.

Training of perceptual-cognitive skills in offside decision making.

PubMed

Catteeuw, Peter; Gilis, Bart; Jaspers, Arne; Wagemans, Johan; Helsen, Werner

2010-12-01

This study investigates the effect of two off-field training formats to improve offside decision making. One group trained with video simulations and another with computer animations. Feedback after every offside situation allowed assistant referees to compensate for the consequences of the flash-lag effect and to improve their decision-making accuracy. First, response accuracy improved and flag errors decreased for both training groups implying that training interventions with feedback taught assistant referees to better deal with the flash-lag effect. Second, the results demonstrated no effect of format, although assistant referees rated video simulations higher for fidelity than computer animations. This implies that a cognitive correction to a perceptual effect can be learned also when the format does not correspond closely with the original perceptual situation. Off-field offside decision-making training should be considered as part of training because it is a considerable help to gain more experience and to improve overall decision-making performance.

"To Thine Own Self Be True": Values, Framing, and Voter Decision-Making Strategies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shah, Dhavan V.; And Others

1996-01-01

Builds on multidisciplinary research on framing, motivation, and decision making to examine the relationships among media frames, individual interpretations of issues, and voter decision making. Shows how two groups, evangelical Christians and undergraduates, responded to simulated newspaper articles on election candidates. Finds that media frames…

The Teaching Decisions Simulation: An Interactive Vehicle for Mapping Teaching Decisions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strang, Harold R.

1996-01-01

Describes the Teaching Decisions Simulation, a program that allows participants to make decisions regarding lesson plan activities and student and teacher spatial arrangement or interactions. Postlesson feedback includes variables such as completion time and performance measures. Experienced teachers exhibited more deliberation in completing the…

BEING EMOTIONAL DURING DECISION MAKING—GOOD OR BAD? AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

PubMed Central

SEO, MYEONG-GU; BARRETT, LISA FELDMAN

2008-01-01

This paper examines the link between affective experience and decision-making performance. In a stock investment simulation, 101 stock investors rated their feelings on an Internet Web site while making investment decisions each day for 20 consecutive business days. Contrary to the popular belief that feelings are generally bad for decision making, we found that individuals who experienced more intense feelings achieved higher decision-making performance. Moreover, individuals who were better able to identify and distinguish among their current feelings achieved higher decision-making performance via their enhanced ability to control the possible biases induced by those feelings. PMID:18449361

Decision making on fitness landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arthur, R.; Sibani, P.

2017-04-01

We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et al. that we call the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures.

Assessing Professional Decision-Making Abilities.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McNergney, Robert; Hinson, Stephanie

1985-01-01

Describes Teacher Development Decision Exercises, a computer-based method of diagnosing abilities of elementary and secondary school supervisors (principals, staff developers, curriculum coordinators) to make professional preactive or planning decisions. This approval simulates assessment of supervisors' abilities to use professional knowledge to…

Improving Decision Making Skill Using an Online Volcanic Crisis Simulation: Impact of Data Presentation Format

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barclay, Elizabeth J.; Renshaw, Carl E.; Taylor, Holly A.; Bilge, A. Reyan

2011-01-01

Creating effective computer-based learning exercises requires an understanding of optimal user interface designs for improving higher order cognitive skills. Using an online volcanic crisis simulation previously shown to improve decision making skill, we find that a user interface using a graphical presentation of the volcano monitoring data…

Pioneers: A Simulation of Decision-Making on a Wagon Train.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wesley, John

This simulation allows students to participate in situations and events similar to those experienced by pioneers who headed west in early wagon trains. Students face problems such as floods, droughts, blocked trails, snakes, Indians, and the lack of food. Students must make numerous individual and small-group decisions that provide them with a…

A Pilot Study of Neonatologists' Decision-Making Roles in Delivery Room Resuscitation Counseling for Periviable Births.

PubMed

Tucker Edmonds, Brownsyne; McKenzie, Fatima; Panoch, Janet E; White, Douglas B; Barnato, Amber E

2016-07-01

Relatively little is known about neonatologists' roles in helping families navigate the difficult decision to attempt or withhold resuscitation for a neonate delivering at the threshold of viability. Therefore, we aimed to describe the "decision-making role" of neonatologists in simulated periviable counseling sessions. We conducted a qualitative content analysis of audio-recorded simulation encounters and post-encounter debriefing interviews collected as part of a single-center simulation study of neonatologists' resuscitation counseling practices in the face of ruptured membranes at 23 weeks gestation. We trained standardized patients to request a recommendation if the physician presented multiple treatment options. We coded each encounter for communication behaviors, applying an adapted, previously developed coding scheme to classify physicians into four decision-making roles (informative, facilitative, collaborative, or directive). We also coded post-simulation debriefing interviews for responses to the open-ended prompt: "During this encounter, what did you feel was your role in the management decision-making process?" Fifteen neonatologists (33% of the division) participated in the study; audio-recorded debriefing interviews were available for 13. We observed 9 (60%) take an informative role, providing medical information only; 2 (13%) take a facilitative role, additionally eliciting the patient's values; 3 (20%) take a collaborative role, additionally engaging the patient in deliberation and providing a recommendation; and 1 (7%) take a directive role, making a treatment decision independent of the patient. Almost all (10/13, 77%) of the neonatologists described their intended role as informative. Neonatologists did not routinely elicit preferences, engage in deliberation, or provide treatment recommendations-even in response to requests for recommendations. These findings suggest there may be a gap between policy recommendations calling for shared decision making and actual clinical practice.

RESTSIM: A Simulation Model That Highlights Decision Making under Conditions of Uncertainty.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zinkhan, George M.; Taylor, James R.

1983-01-01

Describes RESTSIM, an interactive computer simulation program for graduate and upper-level undergraduate management, marketing, and retailing courses, which introduces naive users to simulation as a decision support technique, and provides a vehicle for studying various statistical procedures for evaluating simulation output. (MBR)

A Time-Aware Routing Map for Indoor Evacuation †

PubMed Central

Zhao, Haifeng; Winter, Stephan

2016-01-01

Knowledge of dynamic environments expires over time. Thus, using static maps of the environment for decision making is problematic, especially in emergency situations, such as evacuations. This paper suggests a fading memory model for mapping dynamic environments: a mechanism to put less trust on older knowledge in decision making. The model has been assessed by simulating indoor evacuations, adopting and comparing various strategies in decision making. Results suggest that fading memory generally improves this decision making. PMID:26797610

Pilot Decision-Making Training

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-05-01

Pilot Decisional Attitude Questionnaire (PDAQ). 2. Aeronautical Decision Making . a. The pilot judgment problem b. Relationship of judgment to training...lmEr OAT . REPOR TYPE ANO GATES COVEIRO May 1990 Final - June 1985 - December 1988 4 .MU AN m . .m m t 4i C ’u. SUM L FUNING MUMBRS Pilot Decision - Making ...13 AGSTRACT (Maxu’m 200 wo f -The effectiveness of a simulator-based approach to training pilot skills in risk assessment and decision making was

Application of Decision Making and Team Training Research to Operational Training. A Translative Technique.

DTIC Science & Technology

DECISION MAKING , * GROUP DYNAMICS, NAVAL TRAINING, TRANSFER OF TRAINING, SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH, CLASSIFICATION, PROBLEM SOLVING, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, SUBMARINES, SIMULATORS, PERFORMANCE(HUMAN), UNDERSEA WARFARE.

Simulation and Modeling Efforts to Support Decision Making in Healthcare Supply Chain Management

PubMed Central

Lazarova-Molnar, Sanja

2014-01-01

Recently, most healthcare organizations focus their attention on reducing the cost of their supply chain management (SCM) by improving the decision making pertaining processes' efficiencies. The availability of products through healthcare SCM is often a matter of life or death to the patient; therefore, trial and error approaches are not an option in this environment. Simulation and modeling (SM) has been presented as an alternative approach for supply chain managers in healthcare organizations to test solutions and to support decision making processes associated with various SCM problems. This paper presents and analyzes past SM efforts to support decision making in healthcare SCM and identifies the key challenges associated with healthcare SCM modeling. We also present and discuss emerging technologies to meet these challenges. PMID:24683333

Altered Risk-Based Decision Making following Adolescent Alcohol Use Results from an Imbalance in Reinforcement Learning in Rats

PubMed Central

Hart, Andrew S.; Collins, Anne L.; Bernstein, Ilene L.; Phillips, Paul E. M.

2012-01-01

Alcohol use during adolescence has profound and enduring consequences on decision-making under risk. However, the fundamental psychological processes underlying these changes are unknown. Here, we show that alcohol use produces over-fast learning for better-than-expected, but not worse-than-expected, outcomes without altering subjective reward valuation. We constructed a simple reinforcement learning model to simulate altered decision making using behavioral parameters extracted from rats with a history of adolescent alcohol use. Remarkably, the learning imbalance alone was sufficient to simulate the divergence in choice behavior observed between these groups of animals. These findings identify a selective alteration in reinforcement learning following adolescent alcohol use that can account for a robust change in risk-based decision making persisting into later life. PMID:22615989

Processes and Factors Underlying Adolescent Males' Attitudes and Decision-Making in Relation to an Unplanned Pregnancy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Condon, John T.; Corkindale, Carolyn J.; Russell, Alan; Quinlivan, Julie A.

2006-01-01

This research examined adolescent males' decision-making when confronted with a hypothetical unplanned pregnancy in a sexual partner. An innovative methodology, involving a computerized simulation game was utilized with 386 Australian males (mean age of 15 years). Data were gathered from responses made during the simulation, and questionnaires…

Spiking Phineas Gage: a neurocomputational theory of cognitive-affective integration in decision making.

PubMed

Wagar, Brandon M; Thagard, Paul

2004-01-01

The authors present a neurological theory of how cognitive information and emotional information are integrated in the nucleus accumbens during effective decision making. They describe how the nucleus accumbens acts as a gateway to integrate cognitive information from the ventromedial prefrontal cortex and the hippocampus with emotional information from the amygdala. The authors have modeled this integration by a network of spiking artificial neurons organized into separate areas and used this computational model to simulate 2 kinds of cognitive-affective integration. The model simulates successful performance by people with normal cognitive-affective integration. The model also simulates the historical case of Phineas Gage as well as subsequent patients whose ability to make decisions became impeded by damage to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex.

Clinical decision-making by midwives: managing case complexity.

PubMed

Cioffi, J; Markham, R

1997-02-01

In making clinical judgements, it is argued that midwives use 'shortcuts' or heuristics based on estimated probabilities to simplify the decision-making task. Midwives (n = 30) were given simulated patient assessment situations of high and low complexity and were required to think aloud. Analysis of verbal protocols showed that subjective probability judgements (heuristics) were used more frequently in the high than low complexity case and predominated in the last quarter of the assessment period for the high complexity case. 'Representativeness' was identified more frequently in the high than in the low case, but was the dominant heuristic in both. Reports completed after each simulation suggest that heuristics based on memory for particular conditions affect decisions. It is concluded that midwives use heuristics, derived mainly from their clinical experiences, in an attempt to save cognitive effort and to facilitate reasonably accurate decisions in the decision-making process.

Simulation of cyber attacks with applications in homeland defense training

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Bill; Cutts, Andrew; McGrath, Dennis; Nicol, David M.; Smith, Timothy P.; Tofel, Brett

2003-09-01

We describe a tool to help exercise and train IT managers who make decisions about IP networks in the midst of cyber calamity. Our tool is interactive, centered around a network simulation. It includes various modes of communications one would use to make informed decisions. Our tool is capable of simulating networks with hundreds of components and dozens of players. Test indicate that it could support an exercise an order of magnitude larger and more complex.

The Values of College Students in Business Simulation Game: A Means-End Chain Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lin, Yu-Ling; Tu, Yu-Zu

2012-01-01

Business simulation games (BSGs) enable students to practice making decisions in a virtual environment, accumulate experience in application of strategies, and train themselves in modes of decision-making. This study examines the value sought by players of BSG. In this study, a means-end chain (MEC) model was adopted as the basis, and ladder…

Simulating cyber warfare and cyber defenses: information value considerations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stytz, Martin R.; Banks, Sheila B.

2011-06-01

Simulating cyber warfare is critical to the preparation of decision-makers for the challenges posed by cyber attacks. Simulation is the only means we have to prepare decision-makers for the inevitable cyber attacks upon the information they will need for decision-making and to develop cyber warfare strategies and tactics. Currently, there is no theory regarding the strategies that should be used to achieve objectives in offensive or defensive cyber warfare, and cyber warfare occurs too rarely to use real-world experience to develop effective strategies. To simulate cyber warfare by affecting the information used for decision-making, we modify the information content of the rings that are compromised during in a decision-making context. The number of rings affected and value of the information that is altered (i.e., the closeness of the ring to the center) is determined by the expertise of the decision-maker and the learning outcome(s) for the simulation exercise. We determine which information rings are compromised using the probability that the simulated cyber defenses that protect each ring can be compromised. These probabilities are based upon prior cyber attack activity in the simulation exercise as well as similar real-world cyber attacks. To determine which information in a compromised "ring" to alter, the simulation environment maintains a record of the cyber attacks that have succeeded in the simulation environment as well as the decision-making context. These two pieces of information are used to compute an estimate of the likelihood that the cyber attack can alter, destroy, or falsify each piece of information in a compromised ring. The unpredictability of information alteration in our approach adds greater realism to the cyber event. This paper suggests a new technique that can be used for cyber warfare simulation, the ring approach for modeling context-dependent information value, and our means for considering information value when assigning cyber resources to information protection tasks. The first section of the paper introduces the cyber warfare simulation challenge and the reasons for its importance. The second section contains background information related to our research. The third section contains a discussion of the information ring technique and its use for simulating cyber attacks. The fourth section contains a summary and suggestions for research.

The Effects of Conflict, Quality and Time on Small Group Information Use and Behavior in Evaluative Decision-Making Situations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pflum, Glenn D.; Brown, Robert D.

This study investigated information needs and use by groups in decision-making processes. Problem contexts were varied by conflict, quality, and time conditions and presented to 89 graduate level education students who simulated school board members making decisions about educational programs. The research hypotheses were: (1) there are no…

Smart Grid as Multi-layer Interacting System for Complex Decision Makings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bompard, Ettore; Han, Bei; Masera, Marcelo; Pons, Enrico

This chapter presents an approach to the analysis of Smart Grids based on a multi-layer representation of their technical, cyber, social and decision-making aspects, as well as the related environmental constraints. In the Smart Grid paradigm, self-interested active customers (prosumers), system operators and market players interact among themselves making use of an extensive cyber infrastructure. In addition, policy decision makers define regulations, incentives and constraints to drive the behavior of the competing operators and prosumers, with the objective of ensuring the global desired performance (e.g. system stability, fair prices). For these reasons, the policy decision making is more complicated than in traditional power systems, and needs proper modeling and simulation tools for assessing "in vitro" and ex-ante the possible impacts of the decisions assumed. In this chapter, we consider the smart grids as multi-layered interacting complex systems. The intricacy of the framework, characterized by several interacting layers, cannot be captured by closed-form mathematical models. Therefore, a new approach using Multi Agent Simulation is described. With case studies we provide some indications about how to develop agent-based simulation tools presenting some preliminary examples.

Echocardiography for Intraoperative Decision Making in Mitral Valve Surgery-A Pilot Simulation-Based Training Module.

PubMed

Morais, Rex Joseph; Ashokka, Balakrishnan; Paranjothy, Suresh; Siau, Chiang; Ti, Lian Kah

2017-10-01

Echocardiographic assessment of the repaired or replaced mitral valve intraoperatively involves making a high-impact joint decision with the surgeon, in a time-sensitive manner, in a dynamic clinical situation. These decisions have to take into account the degree of imperfection if any, the likelihood of obtaining a better result, the underlying condition of the patient, and the impact of a longer cardiopulmonary bypass period if the decision is made to reintervene. Traditional echocardiography teaching is limited in its ability to provide this training. The authors report the development and implementation of a training module simulating the dynamic clinical environment of a mitral valve surgery in progress and the critical echo-based intraoperative decision making involved in the assessment of the acceptability of the surgical result. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of Two Desk-Top Computer Simulations Used to Train Tactical Decision Making (TDM) of Small Unit Infantry Leaders

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-04-01

judgmental self-doubt, depression, and causal uncertainty, tend to take fewer risks, and have lower self-esteem. Results from two studies (Nygren, 2000...U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences Research Report 1869 Assessment of Two Desk-Top Computer Simulations Used to...SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMBER Assessment of Two Desk-Top Computer Simulations Used to Train Tactical Decision Making (TDM) of Small Unit

New approaches for real time decision support systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hair, D. Charles; Pickslay, Kent

1994-01-01

NCCOSC RDT&E Division (NRaD) is conducting research into ways of improving decision support systems (DSS) that are used in tactical Navy decision making situations. The research has focused on the incorporation of findings about naturalistic decision-making processes into the design of the DSS. As part of that research, two computer tools were developed that model the two primary naturalistic decision-making strategies used by Navy experts in tactical settings. Current work is exploring how best to incorporate the information produced by those tools into an existing simulation of current Navy decision support systems. This work has implications for any applications involving the need to make decisions under time constraints, based on incomplete or ambiguous data.

E Pluribus Analysis: Applying a Superforecasting Methodology to the Detection of Homegrown Violence

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-03-01

actor violence and a set of predefined decision-making protocols. This research included running four simulations using the Monte Carlo technique, which...actor violence and a set of predefined decision-making protocols. This research included running four simulations using the Monte Carlo technique...PREDICTING RANDOMNESS.............................................................24 1. Using a “ Runs Test” to Determine a Temporal Pattern in Lone

A Neural Information Field Approach to Computational Cognition

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-18

We have extended our perceptual decision making model to account for the effects of context in this flexible DISTRIBUTION A. Approved for public...developed a new perceptual decision making model; demonstrated adaptive motor control in a large-scale cognitive simulation with spiking neurons (Spaun...TERMS EOARD, Computational Cognition, Mixed-initiative decision making 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT SAR 18. NUMBER OF

Exploring the Learning from an Enterprise Simulation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sawyer, John E.; Gopinath, C.

1999-01-01

A computer simulation used in teams by 151 business students tested their ability to translate strategy into decisions. Over eight weeks, the experiential learning activity encouraged strategic decision making and group behavior consistent with long-term strategy. (SK)

Simulations and the Curriculum.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ediger, Marlow

Microcomputers can be used with simulation software to provide students both with experience in the "real world" of decision making and feedback on the decisions made. Such software allows individual students to choose the roles they wish to play from a menu of diverse roles and provides alternatives for them to consider for each decision to be…

Increasing independent decision-making skills of women with mental retardation in simulated interpersonal situations of abuse.

PubMed

Khemka, I

2000-09-01

The effectiveness of two decision-making training approaches in increasing independent decision-making skills of 36 women with mild mental retardation in response to hypothetical social interpersonal situations involving abuse was evaluated. Participants were randomly assigned to a control or one of two training conditions (a decision-making training approach that either addressed both cognitive and motivational aspects of decision-making or included only instruction on the cognitive aspect of decision-making). Although both approaches were effective relative to a control condition, the combined cognitive and motivational training approach was superior to the cognitive only training approach. The superiority of this approach was also reflected on a verbally presented generalization task requiring participants to respond to a decision-making situation involving abuse from their own perspective and on a locus of control scale that measured perceptions of control.

Naturalistic Decision Making in Power Grid Operations: Implications for Dispatcher Training and Usability Testing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greitzer, Frank L.; Podmore, Robin

2008-11-17

The focus of the present study is on improved training approaches to accelerate learning and improved methods for analyzing effectiveness of tools within a high-fidelity power grid simulated environment. A theory-based model has been developed to document and understand the mental processes that an expert power system operator uses when making critical decisions. The theoretical foundation for the method is based on the concepts of situation awareness, the methods of cognitive task analysis, and the naturalistic decision making (NDM) approach of Recognition Primed Decision Making. The method has been systematically explored and refined as part of a capability demonstration ofmore » a high-fidelity real-time power system simulator under normal and emergency conditions. To examine NDM processes, we analyzed transcripts of operator-to-operator conversations during the simulated scenario to reveal and assess NDM-based performance criteria. The results of the analysis indicate that the proposed framework can be used constructively to map or assess the Situation Awareness Level of the operators at each point in the scenario. We can also identify the mental models and mental simulations that the operators employ at different points in the scenario. This report documents the method, describes elements of the model, and provides appendices that document the simulation scenario and the associated mental models used by operators in the scenario.« less

A Full Mission Simulator Study of Aircrew Performances: the Measurement of Crew Coordination and Decisionmaking Factors and Their Relationships to Flight Task Performances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, M. R.; Randle, R. J.; Tanner, T. A.; Frankel, R. M.; Goguen, J. A.; Linde, C.

1984-01-01

Sixteen three man crews flew a full mission scenario in an airline flight simulator. A high level of verbal interaction during instances of critical decision making was located. Each crew flew the scenario only once, without prior knowledge of the scenario problem. Following a simulator run and in accord with formal instructions, each of the three crew members independently viewed and commented on a videotape of their performance. Two check pilot observers rated pilot performance across all crews and, following each run, also commented on the video tape of the crew's performance. A linguistic analysis of voice transcript is made to provide assessment of crew coordination and decision making qualities. Measures of crew coordination and decision making factors are correlated with flight task performance measures.

Development of a Search and Rescue Simulation to Study the Effects of Prolonged Isolation on Team Decision Making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Entin, Elliot E.; Kerrigan, Caroline; Serfaty, Daniel; Young, Philip

1998-01-01

The goals of this project were to identify and investigate aspects of team and individual decision-making and risk-taking behaviors hypothesized to be most affected by prolonged isolation. A key premise driving our research approach is that effects of stressors that impact individual and team cognitive processes in an isolated, confined, and hazardous environment will be projected onto the performance of a simulation task. To elicit and investigate these team behaviors we developed a search and rescue task concept as a scenario domain that would be relevant for isolated crews. We modified the Distributed Dynamic Decision-making (DDD) simulator, a platform that has been extensively used for empirical research in team processes and taskwork performance, to portray the features of a search and rescue scenario and present the task components incorporated into that scenario. The resulting software is called DD-Search and Rescue (Version 1.0). To support the use of the DDD-Search and Rescue simulator in isolated experiment settings, we wrote a player's manual for teaching team members to operate the simulator and play the scenario. We then developed a research design and experiment plan that would allow quantitative measures of individual and team decision making skills using the DDD-Search and Rescue simulator as the experiment platform. A description of these activities and the associated materials that were produced under this contract are contained in this report.

Quantum decision-maker theory and simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zak, Michail; Meyers, Ronald E.; Deacon, Keith S.

2000-07-01

A quantum device simulating the human decision making process is introduced. It consists of quantum recurrent nets generating stochastic processes which represent the motor dynamics, and of classical neural nets describing the evolution of probabilities of these processes which represent the mental dynamics. The autonomy of the decision making process is achieved by a feedback from the mental to motor dynamics which changes the stochastic matrix based upon the probability distribution. This feedback replaces unavailable external information by an internal knowledge- base stored in the mental model in the form of probability distributions. As a result, the coupled motor-mental dynamics is described by a nonlinear version of Markov chains which can decrease entropy without an external source of information. Applications to common sense based decisions as well as to evolutionary games are discussed. An example exhibiting self-organization is computed using quantum computer simulation. Force on force and mutual aircraft engagements using the quantum decision maker dynamics are considered.

Neural basis of quasi-rational decision making.

PubMed

Lee, Daeyeol

2006-04-01

Standard economic theories conceive homo economicus as a rational decision maker capable of maximizing utility. In reality, however, people tend to approximate optimal decision-making strategies through a collection of heuristic routines. Some of these routines are driven by emotional processes, and others are adjusted iteratively through experience. In addition, routines specialized for social decision making, such as inference about the mental states of other decision makers, might share their origins and neural mechanisms with the ability to simulate or imagine outcomes expected from alternative actions that an individual can take. A recent surge of collaborations across economics, psychology and neuroscience has provided new insights into how such multiple elements of decision making interact in the brain.

Taking on the doctor role in whole-task simulation.

PubMed

Bartlett, Maggie; Gay, Simon P; Kinston, Ruth; McKinley, Robert

2018-06-01

Untimed simulated primary care consultations focusing on safe and effective clinical outcomes were first introduced into undergraduate medical education in Otago, New Zealand, in 2004. We extended this concept and included a secondary care version for final-year students. We offer students opportunities to manage entire consultations, which include making and implementing clinical decisions with simulated patients (SPs). Formative feedback is given by SPs on the achievement of pre-determined outcomes and by faculty members on clinical decision making, medical record keeping and case presentation. We explored students' perceptions of the educational value of the sessions using post-session questionnaires (n = 194) and focus groups (n = 36 participants overall). Students are offered opportunities to manage entire consultations with simulated patients RESULTS: Students perceived that the sessions were useful, enjoyable and relevant to early postgraduate practice. They identified useful learning in time management, communication, decision making, prescribing and managing uncertainty. Students identified gaps in their knowledge and recognised that they had been offered opportunities to develop decision-making skills by having to take responsibility for whole consultations and all the decisions included within them. Most students reported positive impacts on learning, although a small minority reported negative impacts on their perceptions of their ability to cope as a junior doctor. These simulated consultation sessions appear to lead to the effective learning of a range of skills that students need in order to work as junior doctors. Facilitators leading such sessions must be alert to the possibility of educational harm arising from such simulations, and the need to address this during the debriefing. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and The Association for the Study of Medical Education.

Lifelong Transfer Learning for Heterogeneous Teams of Agents in Sequential Decision Processes

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

making (SDM) tasks in dynamic environments with simulated and physical robots . 15. SUBJECT TERMS Sequential decision making, lifelong learning, transfer...sequential decision-making (SDM) tasks in dynamic environments with both simple benchmark tasks and more complex aerial and ground robot tasks. Our work...and ground robots in the presence of disturbances: We applied our methods to the problem of learning controllers for robots with novel disturbances in

MoCog1: A computer simulation of recognition-primed human decision making, considering emotions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gevarter, William B.

1992-01-01

The successful results of the first stage of a research effort to develop a versatile computer model of motivated human cognitive behavior are reported. Most human decision making appears to be an experience-based, relatively straightforward, largely automatic response to situations, utilizing cues and opportunities perceived from the current environment. The development, considering emotions, of the architecture and computer program associated with such 'recognition-primed' decision-making is described. The resultant computer program (MoCog1) was successfully utilized as a vehicle to simulate earlier findings that relate how an individual's implicit theories orient the individual toward particular goals, with resultant cognitions, affects, and behavior in response to their environment.

MoCog1: A computer simulation of recognition-primed human decision making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gevarter, William B.

1991-01-01

The results of the first stage of a research effort to develop a 'sophisticated' computer model of human cognitive behavior are described. Most human decision making is an experience-based, relatively straight-forward, largely automatic response to internal goals and drives, utilizing cues and opportunities perceived from the current environment. The development of the architecture and computer program (MoCog1) associated with such 'recognition-primed' decision making is discussed. The resultant computer program was successfully utilized as a vehicle to simulate earlier findings that relate how an individual's implicit theories orient the individual toward particular goals, with resultant cognitions, affects, and behavior in response to their environment.

Thinking in Pharmacy Practice: A Study of Community Pharmacists’ Clinical Reasoning in Medication Supply Using the Think-Aloud Method

PubMed Central

Croft, Hayley; Gilligan, Conor; Rasiah, Rohan; Levett-Jones, Tracy; Schneider, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Medication review and supply by pharmacists involves both cognitive and technical skills related to the safety and appropriateness of prescribed medicines. The cognitive ability of pharmacists to recall, synthesise and memorise information is a critical aspect of safe and optimal medicines use, yet few studies have investigated the clinical reasoning and decision-making processes pharmacists use when supplying prescribed medicines. The objective of this study was to examine the patterns and processes of pharmacists’ clinical reasoning and to identify the information sources used, when making decisions about the safety and appropriateness of prescribed medicines. Ten community pharmacists participated in a simulation in which they were required to review a prescription and make decisions about the safety and appropriateness of supplying the prescribed medicines to the patient, whilst at the same time thinking aloud about the tasks required. Following the simulation each pharmacist was asked a series of questions to prompt retrospective thinking aloud using video-stimulated recall. The simulated consultation and retrospective interview were recorded and transcribed for thematic analysis. All of the pharmacists made a safe and appropriate supply of two prescribed medicines to the simulated patient. Qualitative analysis identified seven core thinking processes used during the supply process: considering prescription in context, retrieving information, identifying medication-related issues, processing information, collaborative planning, decision making and reflection; and align closely with other health professionals. The insights from this study have implications for enhancing awareness of decision making processes in pharmacy practice and informing teaching and assessment approaches in medication supply. PMID:29301223

Towards a conceptual multi-agent-based framework to simulate the spatial group decision-making process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghavami, Seyed Morsal; Taleai, Mohammad

2017-04-01

Most spatial problems are multi-actor, multi-issue and multi-phase in nature. In addition to their intrinsic complexity, spatial problems usually involve groups of actors from different organizational and cognitive backgrounds, all of whom participate in a social structure to resolve or reduce the complexity of a given problem. Hence, it is important to study and evaluate what different aspects influence the spatial problem resolution process. Recently, multi-agent systems consisting of groups of separate agent entities all interacting with each other have been put forward as appropriate tools to use to study and resolve such problems. In this study, then in order to generate a better level of understanding regarding the spatial problem group decision-making process, a conceptual multi-agent-based framework is used that represents and specifies all the necessary concepts and entities needed to aid group decision making, based on a simulation of the group decision-making process as well as the relationships that exist among the different concepts involved. The study uses five main influencing entities as concepts in the simulation process: spatial influence, individual-level influence, group-level influence, negotiation influence and group performance measures. Further, it explains the relationship among different concepts in a descriptive rather than explanatory manner. To illustrate the proposed framework, the approval process for an urban land use master plan in Zanjan—a provincial capital in Iran—is simulated using MAS, the results highlighting the effectiveness of applying an MAS-based framework when wishing to study the group decision-making process used to resolve spatial problems.

Thinking in Pharmacy Practice: A Study of Community Pharmacists' Clinical Reasoning in Medication Supply Using the Think-Aloud Method.

PubMed

Croft, Hayley; Gilligan, Conor; Rasiah, Rohan; Levett-Jones, Tracy; Schneider, Jennifer

2017-12-31

Medication review and supply by pharmacists involves both cognitive and technical skills related to the safety and appropriateness of prescribed medicines. The cognitive ability of pharmacists to recall, synthesise and memorise information is a critical aspect of safe and optimal medicines use, yet few studies have investigated the clinical reasoning and decision-making processes pharmacists use when supplying prescribed medicines. The objective of this study was to examine the patterns and processes of pharmacists' clinical reasoning and to identify the information sources used, when making decisions about the safety and appropriateness of prescribed medicines. Ten community pharmacists participated in a simulation in which they were required to review a prescription and make decisions about the safety and appropriateness of supplying the prescribed medicines to the patient, whilst at the same time thinking aloud about the tasks required. Following the simulation each pharmacist was asked a series of questions to prompt retrospective thinking aloud using video-stimulated recall. The simulated consultation and retrospective interview were recorded and transcribed for thematic analysis. All of the pharmacists made a safe and appropriate supply of two prescribed medicines to the simulated patient. Qualitative analysis identified seven core thinking processes used during the supply process: considering prescription in context, retrieving information, identifying medication-related issues, processing information, collaborative planning, decision making and reflection; and align closely with other health professionals. The insights from this study have implications for enhancing awareness of decision making processes in pharmacy practice and informing teaching and assessment approaches in medication supply.

Making sense of information in noisy networks: human communication, gossip, and distortion.

PubMed

Laidre, Mark E; Lamb, Alex; Shultz, Susanne; Olsen, Megan

2013-01-21

Information from others can be unreliable. Humans nevertheless act on such information, including gossip, to make various social calculations, thus raising the question of whether individuals can sort through social information to identify what is, in fact, true. Inspired by empirical literature on people's decision-making when considering gossip, we built an agent-based simulation model to examine how well simple decision rules could make sense of information as it propagated through a network. Our simulations revealed that a minimalistic decision-rule 'Bit-wise mode' - which compared information from multiple sources and then sought a consensus majority for each component bit within the message - was consistently the most successful at converging upon the truth. This decision rule attained high relative fitness even in maximally noisy networks, composed entirely of nodes that distorted the message. The rule was also superior to other decision rules regardless of its frequency in the population. Simulations carried out with variable agent memory constraints, different numbers of observers who initiated information propagation, and a variety of network types suggested that the single most important factor in making sense of information was the number of independent sources that agents could consult. Broadly, our model suggests that despite the distortion information is subject to in the real world, it is nevertheless possible to make sense of it based on simple Darwinian computations that integrate multiple sources. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CET exSim: mineral exploration experience via simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Jason C.; Holden, Eun-Jung; Kovesi, Peter; McCuaig, T. Campbell; Hronsky, Jon

2013-08-01

Undercover mineral exploration is a challenging task as it requires understanding of subsurface geology by relying heavily on remotely sensed (i.e. geophysical) data. Cost-effective exploration is essential in order to increase the chance of success using finite budgets. This requires effective decision-making in both the process of selecting the optimum data collection methods and in the process of achieving accuracy during subsequent interpretation. Traditionally, developing the skills, behaviour and practices of exploration decision-making requires many years of experience through working on exploration projects under various geological settings, commodities and levels of available resources. This implies long periods of sub-optimal exploration decision-making, before the necessary experience has been successfully obtained. To address this critical industry issue, our ongoing research focuses on the development of the unique and novel e-learning environment, exSim, which simulates exploration scenarios where users can test their strategies and learn the consequences of their choices. This simulator provides an engaging platform for self-learning and experimentation in exploration decision strategies, providing a means to build experience more effectively. The exSim environment also provides a unique platform on which numerous scenarios and situations (e.g. deposit styles) can be simulated, potentially allowing the user to become virtually familiarised with a broader scope of exploration practices. Harnessing the power of computer simulation, visualisation and an intuitive graphical user interface, the simulator provides a way to assess the user's exploration decisions and subsequent interpretations. In this paper, we present the prototype functionalities in exSim including: simulation of geophysical surveys, follow-up drill testing and interpretation assistive tools.

A cognitive prosthesis for complex decision-making.

PubMed

Tremblay, Sébastien; Gagnon, Jean-François; Lafond, Daniel; Hodgetts, Helen M; Doiron, Maxime; Jeuniaux, Patrick P J M H

2017-01-01

While simple heuristics can be ecologically rational and effective in naturalistic decision making contexts, complex situations require analytical decision making strategies, hypothesis-testing and learning. Sub-optimal decision strategies - using simplified as opposed to analytic decision rules - have been reported in domains such as healthcare, military operational planning, and government policy making. We investigate the potential of a computational toolkit called "IMAGE" to improve decision-making by developing structural knowledge and increasing understanding of complex situations. IMAGE is tested within the context of a complex military convoy management task through (a) interactive simulations, and (b) visualization and knowledge representation capabilities. We assess the usefulness of two versions of IMAGE (desktop and immersive) compared to a baseline. Results suggest that the prosthesis helped analysts in making better decisions, but failed to increase their structural knowledge about the situation once the cognitive prosthesis is removed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decisions and Macroeconomics: Development and Implementation of a Simulation Game

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woltjer, Geert B.

2005-01-01

For many students macroeconomics is very abstract; it is difficult for them to imagine that the theories are fundamentally about the coordination of human decisions. The author developed a simulation game called Steer the Economy that creates the possibility for students to make the decisions of the firms that are implicit in macroeconomic models.…

Two Validated Ways of Improving the Ability of Decision-Making in Emergencies; Results from a Literature Review

PubMed Central

Khorram-Manesh, Amir; Berlin, Johan; Carlström, Eric

2016-01-01

The aim of the current review wasto study the existing knowledge about decision-making and to identify and describe validated training tools.A comprehensive literature review was conducted by using the following keywords: decision-making, emergencies, disasters, crisis management, training, exercises, simulation, validated, real-time, command and control, communication, collaboration, and multi-disciplinary in combination or as an isolated word. Two validated training systems developed in Sweden, 3 level collaboration (3LC) and MacSim, were identified and studied in light of the literature review in order to identify how decision-making can be trained. The training models fulfilled six of the eight identified characteristics of training for decision-making.Based on the results, these training models contained methods suitable to train for decision-making. PMID:27878123

A Multi-layer Dynamic Model for Coordination Based Group Decision Making in Water Resource Allocation and Scheduling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Wei; Zhang, Xingnan; Li, Chenming; Wang, Jianying

Management of group decision-making is an important issue in water source management development. In order to overcome the defects in lacking of effective communication and cooperation in the existing decision-making models, this paper proposes a multi-layer dynamic model for coordination in water resource allocation and scheduling based group decision making. By introducing the scheme-recognized cooperative satisfaction index and scheme-adjusted rationality index, the proposed model can solve the problem of poor convergence of multi-round decision-making process in water resource allocation and scheduling. Furthermore, the problem about coordination of limited resources-based group decision-making process can be solved based on the effectiveness of distance-based group of conflict resolution. The simulation results show that the proposed model has better convergence than the existing models.

Stress-induced cortisol facilitates threat-related decision making among police officers.

PubMed

Akinola, Modupe; Mendes, Wendy Berry

2012-02-01

Previous research suggests that cortisol can affect cognitive functions such as memory, decision making, and attentiveness to threat-related cues. Here, we examine whether increases in cortisol, brought on by an acute social stressor, influence threat-related decision making. Eighty-one police officers completed a standardized laboratory stressor and then immediately completed a computer simulated decision-making task designed to examine decisions to accurately shoot or not shoot armed and unarmed Black and White targets. Results indicated that police officers who had larger cortisol increases to the social-stress task subsequently made fewer errors when deciding to shoot armed Black targets relative to armed White targets, suggesting that hypothalamic pituitary adrenal (HPA) activation may exacerbate vigilance for threat cues. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of threat-initiated decision making.

Effects of Information Availability on Command-and-Control Decision Making: Performance, Trust, and Situation Awareness.

PubMed

Marusich, Laura R; Bakdash, Jonathan Z; Onal, Emrah; Yu, Michael S; Schaffer, James; O'Donovan, John; Höllerer, Tobias; Buchler, Norbou; Gonzalez, Cleotilde

2016-03-01

We investigated how increases in task-relevant information affect human decision-making performance, situation awareness (SA), and trust in a simulated command-and-control (C2) environment. Increased information is often associated with an improvement of SA and decision-making performance in networked organizations. However, previous research suggests that increasing information without considering the task relevance and the presentation can impair performance. We used a simulated C2 task across two experiments. Experiment 1 varied the information volume provided to individual participants and measured the speed and accuracy of decision making for task performance. Experiment 2 varied information volume and information reliability provided to two participants acting in different roles and assessed decision-making performance, SA, and trust between the paired participants. In both experiments, increased task-relevant information volume did not improve task performance. In Experiment 2, increased task-relevant information volume reduced self-reported SA and trust, and incorrect source reliability information led to poorer task performance and SA. These results indicate that increasing the volume of information, even when it is accurate and task relevant, is not necessarily beneficial to decision-making performance. Moreover, it may even be detrimental to SA and trust among team members. Given the high volume of available and shared information and the safety-critical and time-sensitive nature of many decisions, these results have implications for training and system design in C2 domains. To avoid decrements to SA, interpersonal trust, and decision-making performance, information presentation within C2 systems must reflect human cognitive processing limits and capabilities. © 2016, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Using manufacturing simulators to evaluate important processing decisions in the furniture and cabinet industries

Treesearch

Janice K. Wiedenbeck; Philip A. Araman

1995-01-01

We've been telling the wood industry about our process simulation modeling research and development work for several years. We've demonstrated our crosscut-first and rip-first rough mill simulation and animation models. Weâve advised companies on how they could use simulation modeling to help make critically important, pending decisions related to mill layout...

Research Using In Vivo Simulation of Meta-Organizational Shared Decision-making (SDM). Task 4: Modeling of Communication and Decision Functions within a Shared Decision-making (SDM) Framework

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-01

la Reine (en droit du Canada), telle que représentée par le ministre de la Défense nationale 2011, Abstract...modélisation des fonctions de communication et de prise de décision dans le cadre de la prise de décision partagée (PDP) du volet de travail « Recherche par... la simulation in-vivo sur la prise de décision partagée des méta-organisations ». Cette composante du programme

Helicopter simulation: Making it work

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Payne, Barry

1992-01-01

The opportunities for improved training and checking by using helicopter simulators are greater than they are for airplane pilot training. Simulators permit the safe creation of training environments that are conducive to the development of pilot decision-making, situational awareness, and cockpit management. This paper defines specific attributes required in a simulator to meet a typical helicopter operator's training and checking objectives.

Effect of regulating anger and sadness on decision-making.

PubMed

Szasz, Paul Lucian; Hofmann, Stefan G; Heilman, Renata M; Curtiss, Joshua

2016-11-01

The aim of the current study was to investigate the effects of reappraisal, acceptance, and rumination for regulating anger and sadness on decision-making. Participants (N = 165) were asked to recall two autobiographical events in which they felt intense anger and sadness, respectively. Participants were then instructed to reappraise, accept, ruminate, or not use any strategies to regulate their feelings of anger and sadness. Following this manipulation, risk aversion, and decision-making strategies were measured using a computer-based measure of risk-taking and a simulated real-life decision-making task. Participants who were instructed to reappraise their emotions showed the least anger and sadness, the most adaptive decision-making strategies, but the least risk aversion as compared to the participants in the other conditions. These findings suggest that emotion regulation strategies of negative affective states have an immediate effect on decision-making and risk-taking behaviors.

Naturalistic Decision Making for Power System Operators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greitzer, Frank L.; Podmore, Robin; Robinson, Marck

2010-02-01

Motivation – Investigations of large-scale outages in the North American interconnected electric system often attribute the causes to three T’s: Trees, Training and Tools. To document and understand the mental processes used by expert operators when making critical decisions, a naturalistic decision making (NDM) model was developed. Transcripts of conversations were analyzed to reveal and assess NDM-based performance criteria. Findings/Design – An item analysis indicated that the operators’ Situation Awareness Levels, mental models, and mental simulations can be mapped at different points in the training scenario. This may identify improved training methods or analytical/ visualization tools. Originality/Value – This studymore » applies for the first time, the concepts of Recognition Primed Decision Making, Situation Awareness Levels and Cognitive Task Analysis to training of electric power system operators. Take away message – The NDM approach provides a viable framework for systematic training management to accelerate learning in simulator-based training scenarios for power system operators and teams.« less

"Sugar-Ray" School-Based Decision Groups.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hunt, John J.; And Others

1992-01-01

Investigates differences between high-achieving and low-achieving school-based decision groups in decision making. Decision groups (207 groups of 3 members each) used computer simulations to address problems facing principals concerning fourth grade academic achievement. Higher-achieving groups made more decisions and made a combination of related…

Developing Digital Dashboard Management for Learning System Dynamic Cooperative Simulation Behavior of Indonesia. (Study on Cooperative Information Organization in the Ministry of Cooperatives and SME)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eni, Yuli; Aryanto, Rudy

2014-03-01

There are problems being experienced by the Ministry of cooperatives and SME (Small and Medium Enterprise) including the length of time in the decision by the Government to establish a policy that should be taken for local cooperatives across the province of Indonesia. The decision-making process is still analyzed manually, so that sometimes the decisions taken are also less appropriate, effective and efficient. The second problem is the lack of monitoring data cooperative process province that is too much, making it difficult for the analysis of dynamic information to be useful. Therefore the authors want to fix the system that runs by using digital dashboard management system supported by the modeling of system dynamics. In addition, the author also did the design of a system that can support the system. Design of this system is aimed to ease the experts, head, and the government to decide (DSS - Decision Support System) accurately effectively and efficiently, because in the system are raised alternative simulation in a description of the decision to be taken and the result from the decision. The system is expected to be designed dan simulated can ease and expedite the decision making. The design of dynamic digital dashboard management conducted by method of OOAD (Objects Oriented Analysis and Design) complete with UML notation.

Use of statistical and pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modeling and simulation to improve decision-making: A section summary report of the trends and innovations in clinical trial statistics conference.

PubMed

Kimko, Holly; Berry, Seth; O'Kelly, Michael; Mehrotra, Nitin; Hutmacher, Matthew; Sethuraman, Venkat

2017-01-01

The application of modeling and simulation (M&S) methods to improve decision-making was discussed during the Trends & Innovations in Clinical Trial Statistics Conference held in Durham, North Carolina, USA on May 1-4, 2016. Uses of both pharmacometric and statistical M&S were presented during the conference, highlighting the diversity of the methods employed by pharmacometricians and statisticians to address a broad range of quantitative issues in drug development. Five presentations are summarized herein, which cover the development strategy of employing M&S to drive decision-making; European initiatives on best practice in M&S; case studies of pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics modeling in regulatory decisions; estimation of exposure-response relationships in the presence of confounding; and the utility of estimating the probability of a correct decision for dose selection when prior information is limited. While M&S has been widely used during the last few decades, it is expected to play an essential role as more quantitative assessments are employed in the decision-making process. By integrating M&S as a tool to compile the totality of evidence collected throughout the drug development program, more informed decisions will be made.

Identification of Barriers to Pediatric Care in Limited-Resource Settings: A Simulation Study.

PubMed

Shilkofski, Nicole; Hunt, Elizabeth A

2015-12-01

Eighty percent of the 10 million annual deaths in children aged <5 years in developing countries are estimated to be avoidable, with improvements in education for pediatric emergency management being a key factor. Education must take into account cultural considerations to be effective. Study objectives were: (1) to use simulation to identify factors posing barriers to patient care in limited resource settings (LRS); and (2) to understand how simulations in LRS can affect communication and decision-making processes. A qualitative study was conducted at 17 different sites in 12 developing countries in Asia, Latin America, and Africa. Data from observations of 68 in situ simulated pediatric emergencies were coded for thematic analysis. Sixty-two different "key informants" were interviewed regarding perceived benefit of simulations. Coding of observations and interviews yielded common themes: impact of culture on team hierarchy, impact of communication and language barriers on situational awareness, systematic emergency procedures, role delineation, shared cognition and resource awareness through simulation, logistic barriers to patient care, and use of recognition-primed decision-making by experienced clinicians. Changes in clinical environments were implemented as a result of simulations. Ad hoc teams in LRS face challenges in caring safely for patients; these include language and cultural barriers, as well as environmental and resource constraints. Engaging teams in simulations may promote improved communication, identification of systems issues and latent threats to target for remediation. There may be a role for training novices in use of recognition-primed or algorithmic decision-making strategies to improve rapidity and efficiency of decisions in LRS. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Integration of Dynamic Models in Range Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bardina, Jorge; Thirumalainambi, Rajkumar

2004-01-01

This work addresses the various model interactions in real-time to make an efficient internet based decision making tool for Shuttle launch. The decision making tool depends on the launch commit criteria coupled with physical models. Dynamic interaction between a wide variety of simulation applications and techniques, embedded algorithms, and data visualizations are needed to exploit the full potential of modeling and simulation. This paper also discusses in depth details of web based 3-D graphics and applications to range safety. The advantages of this dynamic model integration are secure accessibility and distribution of real time information to other NASA centers.

How the risky features of previous selection affect subsequent decision-making: evidence from behavioral and fMRI measures.

PubMed

Dong, Guangheng; Zhang, Yifen; Xu, Jiaojing; Lin, Xiao; Du, Xiaoxia

2015-01-01

Human decision making is rarely conducted in temporal isolation. It is often biased and affected by environmental variables, particularly prior selections. In this study, we used a task that simulates a real gambling process to explore the effect of the risky features of a previous selection on subsequent decision making. Compared with decision making after an advantageous risk-taking situation (Risk_Adv), that after a disadvantageous risk-taking situation (Risk_Disadv) is associated with a longer response time (RT, the time spent in making decisions) and higher brain activations in the caudate and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). Compared with decisions after Risk_Adv, those after Risk_Disadv in loss trials are associated with higher brain activations in the left superior temporal gyrus (STG) and the precuneus. Brain activity and relevant RTs significantly correlated. Overall, people who experience disadvantageous risk-taking selections tend to focus on current decision making and engage cognitive endeavors in value evaluation and in the regulation of their risk-taking behaviors during decision making.

Memory and Processing Limits in Decision-Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Klapp, Stuart T.

According to the classical working memory perspective, tasks such as command and control decision-making should be performed less effectively if extraneous material must be retained in short-term memory. Only marginal support for this prediction was obtained for a simulation involving scheduling trucking and transportation missions, although…

Development of a safety decision-making scenario to measure worker safety in agriculture.

PubMed

Mosher, G A; Keren, N; Freeman, S A; Hurburgh, C R

2014-04-01

Human factors play an important role in the management of occupational safety, especially in high-hazard workplaces such as commercial grain-handling facilities. Employee decision-making patterns represent an essential component of the safety system within a work environment. This research describes the process used to create a safety decision-making scenario to measure the process that grain-handling employees used to make choices in a safety-related work task. A sample of 160 employees completed safety decision-making simulations based on a hypothetical but realistic scenario in a grain-handling environment. Their choices and the information they used to make their choices were recorded. Although the employees emphasized safety information in their decision-making process, not all of their choices were safe choices. Factors influencing their choices are discussed, and implications for industry, management, and workers are shared.

Deepening the quality of clinical reasoning and decision-making in rural hospital nursing practice.

PubMed

Sedgwick, M G; Grigg, L; Dersch, S

2014-01-01

Rural acute care nursing requires an extensive breadth and depth of knowledge as well as the ability to quickly reason through problems in order to make sound clinical decisions. This reasoning often occurs within an environment that has minimal medical or ancillary support. Registered nurses (RN) new to rural nursing, and employers, have raised concerns about patient safety while new nurses make the transition into rural practice. In addition, feeling unprepared for the rigors of rural hospital nursing practice is a central issue influencing RN recruitment and retention. Understanding how rural RNs reason is a key element for identifying professional development needs and may support recruitment and retention of skilled rural nurses. The purpose of this study was to explore how rural RNs reason through clinical problems as well as to assess the quality of such reasoning. This study used a non-traditional approach for data collection. Fifteen rural acute care nurses with varying years of experience working in southern Alberta, Canada, were observed while they provided care to patients of varying acuity within a simulated rural setting. Following the simulation, semi-structured interviews were conducted using a substantive approach to critical thinking. Findings revealed that the ability to engage in deep clinical reasoning varied considerably among participants despite being given the same information under the same circumstances. Furthermore, the number of years of experience did not seem to be directly linked to the ability to engage in sound clinical reasoning. Novice nurses, however, did rely heavily on others in their decision making in order to ensure they were making the right decision. Hence, their relationships with other staff members influenced their ability to engage in clinical reasoning and decision making. In situations where the patient's condition was deteriorating quickly, regardless of years of experience, all of the participants depended on their colleagues when making decisions and reasoning throughout the simulation. Deep clinical reasoning and decision making is a function of reflection and self-correction that requires a critical self-awareness and is more about how nurses think than what they think. The degree of sophistication in reasoning of experts and novices is at times equivalent in that the reasoning of experts and novices can be somewhat limited and focused primarily on human physicality and less on conceptual knowledge. To become proficient in clinical reasoning, practice is necessary. The study supports the accumulating evidence that using clinical simulation and reflective interviewing that emphasize how clinical decisions are made enhances reasoning skills and confidence.

Communication practices in physician decision-making for an unstable critically ill patient with end-stage cancer.

PubMed

Mohan, Deepika; Alexander, Stewart C; Garrigues, Sarah K; Arnold, Robert M; Barnato, Amber E

2010-08-01

Shared decision-making has become the standard of care for most medical treatments. However, little is known about physician communication practices in the decision making for unstable critically ill patients with known end-stage disease. To describe communication practices of physicians making treatment decisions for unstable critically ill patients with end-stage cancer, using the framework of shared decision-making. Analysis of audiotaped encounters between physicians and a standardized patient, in a high-fidelity simulation scenario, to identify best practice communication behaviors. The simulation depicted a 78-year-old man with metastatic gastric cancer, life-threatening hypoxia, and stable preferences to avoid intensive care unit (ICU) admission and intubation. Blinded coders assessed the encounters for verbal communication behaviors associated with handling emotions and discussion of end-of-life goals. We calculated a score for skill at handling emotions (0-6) and at discussing end of life goals (0-16). Twenty-seven hospital-based physicians. Independent variables included physician demographics and communication behaviors. We used treatment decisions (ICU admission and initiation of palliation) as a proxy for accurate identification of patient preferences. Eight physicians admitted the patient to the ICU, and 16 initiated palliation. Physicians varied, but on average demonstrated low skill at handling emotions (mean, 0.7) and moderate skill at discussing end-of-life goals (mean, 7.4). We found that skill at discussing end-of-life goals was associated with initiation of palliation (p = 0.04). It is possible to analyze the decision making of physicians managing unstable critically ill patients with end-stage cancer using the framework of shared decision-making.

Use of the AHP methodology in system dynamics: Modelling and simulation for health technology assessments to determine the correct prosthesis choice for hernia diseases.

PubMed

Improta, Giovanni; Russo, Mario Alessandro; Triassi, Maria; Converso, Giuseppe; Murino, Teresa; Santillo, Liberatina Carmela

2018-05-01

Health technology assessments (HTAs) are often difficult to conduct because of the decisive procedures of the HTA algorithm, which are often complex and not easy to apply. Thus, their use is not always convenient or possible for the assessment of technical requests requiring a multidisciplinary approach. This paper aims to address this issue through a multi-criteria analysis focusing on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). This methodology allows the decision maker to analyse and evaluate different alternatives and monitor their impact on different actors during the decision-making process. However, the multi-criteria analysis is implemented through a simulation model to overcome the limitations of the AHP methodology. Simulations help decision-makers to make an appropriate decision and avoid unnecessary and costly attempts. Finally, a decision problem regarding the evaluation of two health technologies, namely, the evaluation of two biological prostheses for incisional infected hernias, will be analysed to assess the effectiveness of the model. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Overview of NASA's IM&S Verification and Validation Process Plan and Specification for Space Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gravitz, Robert M.; Hale, Joseph

2006-01-01

NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) is implementing a management approach for modeling and simulation (M&S) that will provide decision-makers information on the model's fidelity, credibility, and quality. This information will allow the decision-maker to understand the risks involved in using a model's results in the decision-making process. This presentation will discuss NASA's approach for verification and validation (V&V) of its models or simulations supporting space exploration. This presentation will describe NASA's V&V process and the associated M&S verification and validation (V&V) activities required to support the decision-making process. The M&S V&V Plan and V&V Report templates for ESMD will also be illustrated.

Discrete event simulation for healthcare organizations: a tool for decision making.

PubMed

Hamrock, Eric; Paige, Kerrie; Parks, Jennifer; Scheulen, James; Levin, Scott

2013-01-01

Healthcare organizations face challenges in efficiently accommodating increased patient demand with limited resources and capacity. The modern reimbursement environment prioritizes the maximization of operational efficiency and the reduction of unnecessary costs (i.e., waste) while maintaining or improving quality. As healthcare organizations adapt, significant pressures are placed on leaders to make difficult operational and budgetary decisions. In lieu of hard data, decision makers often base these decisions on subjective information. Discrete event simulation (DES), a computerized method of imitating the operation of a real-world system (e.g., healthcare delivery facility) over time, can provide decision makers with an evidence-based tool to develop and objectively vet operational solutions prior to implementation. DES in healthcare commonly focuses on (1) improving patient flow, (2) managing bed capacity, (3) scheduling staff, (4) managing patient admission and scheduling procedures, and (5) using ancillary resources (e.g., labs, pharmacies). This article describes applicable scenarios, outlines DES concepts, and describes the steps required for development. An original DES model developed to examine crowding and patient flow for staffing decision making at an urban academic emergency department serves as a practical example.

Truel Conflict and Complex Decision Making. The Effects of the Three-Party-Duel on Military and Economic Behavior of Decision Making Groups in a Complex Environment.

DTIC Science & Technology

of their decisions in a simulated internation conflict. The duel conflict (conflict between two nations) was maintained for the control groups during...four one-half hour playing periods. Experimental groups were exposed to one duel playing period, and were then exposed to increasing threat of truel

Prioritization of water management for sustainability using hydrologic simulation model and multicriteria decision making techniques.

PubMed

Chung, Eun-Sung; Lee, Kil Seong

2009-03-01

The objective of this study is to develop an alternative evaluation index (AEI) in order to determine the priorities of a range of alternatives using both the hydrological simulation program in FORTRAN (HSPF) and multicriteria decision making (MCDM) techniques. In order to formulate the HSPF model, sensitivity analyses of water quantity (peak discharge and total volume) and quality (BOD peak concentrations and total loads) are conducted and a number of critical parameters were selected. To achieve a more precise simulation, the study watershed is divided into four regions for calibration and verification according to landuse, location, slope, and climate data. All evaluation criteria were selected using the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model, a sustainability evaluation concept. The Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to estimate the weights of the criteria and the effects of water quantity and quality were quantified by HSPF simulation. In addition, AEIs that reflected residents' preferences for management objectives are proposed in order to induce the stakeholder to participate in the decision making process.

Modeling Common-Sense Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zak, Michail

This paper presents a methodology for efficient synthesis of dynamical model simulating a common-sense decision making process. The approach is based upon the extension of the physics' First Principles that includes behavior of living systems. The new architecture consists of motor dynamics simulating actual behavior of the object, and mental dynamics representing evolution of the corresponding knowledge-base and incorporating it in the form of information flows into the motor dynamics. The autonomy of the decision making process is achieved by a feedback from mental to motor dynamics. This feedback replaces unavailable external information by an internal knowledgebase stored in the mental model in the form of probability distributions.

A Structured approach to incidental take decision making

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.

2013-01-01

Decision making related to incidental take of endangered species under U.S. law lends itself well to a structured decision making approach. Incidental take is the permitted killing, harming, or harassing of a protected species under the law as long as that harm is incidental to an otherwise lawful activity and does not “reduce appreciably the probability of survival and recovery in the wild.” There has been inconsistency in the process used for determining incidental take allowances across species and across time for the same species, and structured decision making has been proposed to improve decision making. I use an example decision analysis to demonstrate the process and its applicability to incidental take decisions, even under significant demographic uncertainty and multiple, competing objectives. I define the example problem, present an objectives statement and a value function, use a simulation model to assess the consequences of a set of management actions, and evaluate the tradeoffs among the different actions. The approach results in transparent and repeatable decisions.

Crew decision making under stress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, J.

1992-01-01

Flight crews must make decisions and take action when systems fail or emergencies arise during flight. These situations may involve high stress. Full-missiion flight simulation studies have shown that crews differ in how effectively they cope in these circumstances, judged by operational errors and crew coordination. The present study analyzed the problem solving and decision making strategies used by crews led by captains fitting three different personality profiles. Our goal was to identify more and less effective strategies that could serve as the basis for crew selection or training. Methods: Twelve 3-member B-727 crews flew a 5-leg mission simulated flight over 1 1/2 days. Two legs included 4 abnormal events that required decisions during high workload periods. Transcripts of videotapes were analyzed to describe decision making strategies. Crew performance (errors and coordination) was judged on-line and from videotapes by check airmen. Results: Based on a median split of crew performance errors, analyses to date indicate a difference in general strategy between crews who make more or less errors. Higher performance crews showed greater situational awareness - they responded quickly to cues and interpreted them appropriately. They requested more decision relevant information and took into account more constraints. Lower performing crews showed poorer situational awareness, planning, constraint sensitivity, and coordination. The major difference between higher and lower performing crews was that poorer crews made quick decisions and then collected information to confirm their decision. Conclusion: Differences in overall crew performance were associated with differences in situational awareness, information management, and decision strategy. Captain personality profiles were associated with these differences, a finding with implications for crew selection and training.

The Computer in Educational Decision Making. An Introduction and Guide for School Administrators.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sanders, Susan; And Others

This text provides educational administrators with a working knowledge of the problem-solving techniques of PERT (planning, evaluation, and review technique), Linear Programming, Queueing Theory, and Simulation. The text includes an introduction to decision-making and operations research, four chapters consisting of indepth explanations of each…

Decision making in prioritization of required operational capabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreeva, P.; Karev, M.; Kovacheva, Ts.

2015-10-01

The paper describes an expert heuristic approach to prioritization of required operational capabilities in the field of defense. Based on expert assessment and by application of the method of Analytical Hierarchical Process, a methodology for their prioritization has been developed. It has been applied to practical simulation decision making games.

Decision-Making Accuracy of CBM Progress-Monitoring Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hintze, John M.; Wells, Craig S.; Marcotte, Amanda M.; Solomon, Benjamin G.

2018-01-01

This study examined the diagnostic accuracy associated with decision making as is typically conducted with curriculum-based measurement (CBM) approaches to progress monitoring. Using previously published estimates of the standard errors of estimate associated with CBM, 20,000 progress-monitoring data sets were simulated to model student reading…

Nutrient Loading Impacts on Culturable E. coli and other Heterotrophic Bacteria Fate in Simulated Stream Mesocosms

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Understanding fecal indicator bacteria persistence in aquatic environments is important when making management decisions to improve instream water quality. Routinely, bacteria fate and transport models that rely on published kinetic decay constants are used to inform such decision making. The object...

MoCog1: A computer simulation of recognition-primed human decision making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gevarter, William B.

1991-01-01

This report describes the successful results of the first stage of a research effort to develop a 'sophisticated' computer model of human cognitive behavior. Most human decision-making is of the experience-based, relatively straight-forward, largely automatic, type of response to internal goals and drives, utilizing cues and opportunities perceived from the current environment. This report describes the development of the architecture and computer program associated with such 'recognition-primed' decision-making. The resultant computer program was successfully utilized as a vehicle to simulate findings that relate how an individual's implicit theories orient them toward particular goals, with resultant cognitions, affects, and behavior in response to their environment. The present work is an expanded version and is based on research reported while the author was an employee of NASA ARC.

Moral imagination: Facilitating prosocial decision-making through scene imagery and theory of mind.

PubMed

Gaesser, Brendan; Keeler, Kerri; Young, Liane

2018-02-01

How we imagine and subjectively experience the future can inform how we make decisions in the present. Here, we examined a prosocial effect of imagining future episodes in motivating moral decisions about helping others in need, as well as the underlying cognitive mechanisms. Across three experiments we found that people are more willing to help others in specific situations after imagining helping them in those situations. Manipulating the spatial representation of imagined future episodes in particular was effective at increasing intentions to help others, suggesting that scene imagery plays an important role in the prosocial effect of episodic simulation. Path modeling analyses revealed that episodic simulation interacts with theory of mind in facilitating prosocial responses but can also operate independently. Moreover, we found that our manipulations of the imagined helping episode increased actual prosocial behavior, which also correlated with changes in reported willingness to help. Based on these findings, we propose a new model that begins to capture the multifaceted mechanisms by which episodic simulation contributes to prosocial decision-making, highlighting boundaries and promising future directions to explore. Implications for research in moral cognition, imagination, and patients with impairments in episodic simulation are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Medical students, clinical preventive services, and shared decision-making.

PubMed

Keefe, Carole W; Thompson, Margaret E; Noel, Mary Margaret

2002-11-01

Improving access to preventive care requires addressing patient, provider, and systems barriers. Patients often lack knowledge or are skeptical about the importance of prevention. Physicians feel that they have too little time, are not trained to deliver preventive services, and are concerned about the effectiveness of prevention. We have implemented an educational module in the required family practice clerkship (1) to enhance medical student learning about common clinical preventive services and (2) to teach students how to inform and involve patients in shared decision making about those services. Students are asked to examine available evidence-based information for preventive screening services. They are encouraged to look at the recommendations of various organizations and use such resources as reports from the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force to determine recommendations they want to be knowledgeable about in talking with their patients. For learning shared decision making, students are trained to use a model adapted from Braddock and colleagues(1) to discuss specific screening services and to engage patients in the process of making informed decisions about what is best for their own health. The shared decision making is presented and modeled by faculty, discussed in small groups, and students practice using Web-based cases and simulations. The students are evaluated using formative and summative performance-based assessments as they interact with simulated patients about (1) screening for high blood cholesterol and other lipid abnormalities, (2) screening for colorectal cancer, (3) screening for prostate cancer, and (4) screening for breast cancer. The final student evaluation is a ten-minute, videotaped discussion with a simulated patient about screening for colorectal cancer that is graded against a checklist that focuses primarily on the elements of shared decision making. Our medical students appear quite willing to accept shared decision making as a skill that they should have in working with patients, and this was the primary focus of the newly implemented module. However, we have learned that students need to deepen their understanding of screening services in order to help patients understand the associated benefits and risks. The final videotaped interaction with a simulated patient about colorectal cancer screening has been very helpful in making it more obvious to faculty what students believe and know about screening for colorectal cancer. As the students are asked to discuss clinical issues with patients and discuss the pros and cons of screening tests as part of the shared decision-making process, their thinking becomes transparent and it is evident where curricular changes and enhancements are required. We have found that an explicit model that allows students to demonstrate a process for shared decision making is a good introductory tool. We think it would be helpful to provide students with more formative feedback. We would like to develop faculty development programs around shared decision making so that more of our clinical faculty would model such a process with patients. Performance-based assessments are resource-intensive, but they appear to be worth the added effort in terms of enhanced skills development and a more comprehensive appraisal of student learning.

Family nurse practitioner student perception of journal abstract usefulness in clinical decision making: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Johnson, Heather L; Fontelo, Paul; Olsen, Cara H; Jones, Kenneth D; Gimbel, Ronald W

2013-11-01

To assess family nurse practitioner (FNP) student perception of research abstract usefulness in clinical decision making. A randomized controlled trial conducted in a simulated environment with graduate FNP students of the Graduate School of Nursing, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences. Given a clinical case study and modified MEDLINE search tool accessible via an iPad device, participants were asked to develop a treatment plan and complete a data collection form. The primary measure was perceived usefulness of the research abstracts in clinical decision making regarding a simulated obese patient seeking to prevent type 2 diabetes. Secondary measures related to participant demographics and accessibility and usefulness of full-text manuscripts. The majority of NP students identified readily available research abstracts as useful in shaping their clinical decision making. The presence or absence of full-text manuscripts associated with the abstracts did not appear to influence the perceived abstract usefulness. The majority of students with full-text manuscript access in the timed simulated clinical encounter read at least one paper, but cited insufficient time to read full-text as a constraint. Research abstracts at point of care may be valuable to FNPs if easily accessible and integrated into clinical workflow. ©2013 The Author(s) ©2013 American Association of Nurse Practitioners.

Range Systems Simulation for the NASA Shuttle: Emphasis on Disaster and Prevention Management During Lift-Off

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rabelo, Lisa; Sepulveda, Jose; Moraga, Reinaldo; Compton, Jeppie; Turner, Robert

2005-01-01

This article describes a decision-making system composed of a number of safety and environmental models for the launch phase of a NASA Space Shuttle mission. The components of this distributed simulation environment represent the different systems that must collaborate to establish the Expectation of Casualties (E(sub c)) caused by a failed Space Shuttle launch and subsequent explosion (accidental or instructed) of the spacecraft shortly after liftoff. This decision-making tool employs Space Shuttle reliability models, trajectory models, a blast model, weather dissemination systems, population models, amount and type of toxicants, gas dispersion models, human response functions to toxicants, and a geographical information system. Since one of the important features of this proposed simulation environment is to measure blast, toxic, and debris effects, the clear benefits is that it can help safety managers not only estimate the population at risk, but also to help plan evacuations, make sheltering decisions, establish the resources required to provide aid and comfort, and mitigate damages in case of a disaster.

A new computational account of cognitive control over reinforcement-based decision-making: Modeling of a probabilistic learning task.

PubMed

Zendehrouh, Sareh

2015-11-01

Recent work on decision-making field offers an account of dual-system theory for decision-making process. This theory holds that this process is conducted by two main controllers: a goal-directed system and a habitual system. In the reinforcement learning (RL) domain, the habitual behaviors are connected with model-free methods, in which appropriate actions are learned through trial-and-error experiences. However, goal-directed behaviors are associated with model-based methods of RL, in which actions are selected using a model of the environment. Studies on cognitive control also suggest that during processes like decision-making, some cortical and subcortical structures work in concert to monitor the consequences of decisions and to adjust control according to current task demands. Here a computational model is presented based on dual system theory and cognitive control perspective of decision-making. The proposed model is used to simulate human performance on a variant of probabilistic learning task. The basic proposal is that the brain implements a dual controller, while an accompanying monitoring system detects some kinds of conflict including a hypothetical cost-conflict one. The simulation results address existing theories about two event-related potentials, namely error related negativity (ERN) and feedback related negativity (FRN), and explore the best account of them. Based on the results, some testable predictions are also presented. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Analysis of the Verdicts and Decision-Making Variables of Simulated Juries.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anapol, Malthon M.

In order to examine jury deliberations, researchers simulated and videotaped court proceedings and jury deliberations based upon an actual civil court case. Special care was taken to make the simulated trial as authentic as the original trial. College students and the general public provided the jurors, which were then divided into twelve separate…

Simulator: A Pilot Interactive Simulation Program for Use in Teaching Public Relations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pavlik, John V.

An interactive simulation program was developed for use in teaching students how to handle public relations problems. The program user is placed in the role of assistant newsletter editor, facing a series of decision-making situations. Each choice the user makes affects the subsequent reality created by the program, which is designed to provide…

A taxonomy of decision problems on the flight deck

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith M.; Fischer, Ute; Tarrel, Richard J.

1993-01-01

Examining cases of real crews making decisions in full-mission simulators or through Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) reports shows that there are many different types of decisions that crews must make. Features of the situation determine the type of decision that must be made. The paper identifies six types of decisions that require different types of cognitive work and are also subject to different types of error or failure. These different requirements, along with descriptions of effective crew strategies, can serve as a basis for developing training practices and for evaluating crews.

Optimization Research of Generation Investment Based on Linear Programming Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Juan; Ge, Xueqian

Linear programming is an important branch of operational research and it is a mathematical method to assist the people to carry out scientific management. GAMS is an advanced simulation and optimization modeling language and it will combine a large number of complex mathematical programming, such as linear programming LP, nonlinear programming NLP, MIP and other mixed-integer programming with the system simulation. In this paper, based on the linear programming model, the optimized investment decision-making of generation is simulated and analyzed. At last, the optimal installed capacity of power plants and the final total cost are got, which provides the rational decision-making basis for optimized investments.

Toward Fidelity: Simulation-Based Learning for School Principal Preparation and Professional Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shakeshaft, Charol; Becker, Jonathan; Mann, Dale; Reardon, Martin; Robinson, Kerry

2013-01-01

The authors describe a simulation-based set of full-motion video scenarios which require students studying educational leadership to make decisions that solve problems presented in "A Year in the Life of a Middle School Principal." The decision points were designed to reflect the proficiencies emphasized in ISLLC [Interstate School…

An interactive driving simulation for driver control and decision-making research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, R. W.; Hogge, J. R.; Schwartz, S. H.

1975-01-01

Display techniques and equations of motion for a relatively simple fixed base car simulation are described. The vehicle dynamics include simplified lateral (steering) and longitudinal (speed) degrees of freedom. Several simulator tasks are described which require a combination of operator control and decision making, including response to wind gust inputs, curved roads, traffic signal lights, and obstacles. Logic circuits are used to detect speeding, running red lights, and crashes. A variety of visual and auditory cues are used to give the driver appropriate performance feedback. The simulated equations of motion are reviewed and the technique for generating the line drawing CRT roadway display is discussed. On-line measurement capabilities and experimenter control features are presented, along with previous and current research results demonstrating simulation capabilities and applications.

Using M and S to Improve Human Decision Making and Achieve Effective Problem Solving in an International Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christie, Vanessa L.; Landess, David J.

2012-01-01

In the international arena, decision makers are often swayed away from fact-based analysis by their own individual cultural and political bias. Modeling and Simulation-based training can raise awareness of individual predisposition and improve the quality of decision making by focusing solely on fact vice perception. This improved decision making methodology will support the multinational collaborative efforts of military and civilian leaders to solve challenges more effectively. The intent of this experimental research is to create a framework that allows decision makers to "come to the table" with the latest and most significant facts necessary to determine an appropriate solution for any given contingency.

A Cooperative Human-Adaptive Traffic Simulation (CHATS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Phillips, Charles T.; Ballin, Mark G.

1999-01-01

NASA is considering the development of a Cooperative Human-Adaptive Traffic Simulation (CHATS), to examine and evaluate performance of the National Airspace System (NAS) as the aviation community moves toward free flight. CHATS will be specifically oriented toward simulating strategic decision-making by airspace users and by the service provider s traffic management personnel, within the context of different airspace and rules assumptions. It will use human teams to represent these interests and make decisions, and will rely on computer modeling and simulation to calculate the impacts of these decisions. The simulation objectives will be to examine: 1. evolution of airspace users and the service provider s strategies, through adaptation to new operational environments; 2. air carriers competitive and cooperative behavior; 3. expected benefits to airspace users and the service provider as compared to the current NAS; 4. operational limitations of free flight concepts due to congestion and safety concerns. This paper describes an operational concept for CHATS, and presents a high-level functional design which would utilize a combination of existing and new models and simulation capabilities.

Middle School Students' Decision-Making on Solid Waste Management in Taiwan.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Kuo-Hua

The purpose of the study was to determine the effectiveness of a HyperCard simulation upon student's concepts, opinions, and option-rankings on solid waste management, and to investigate what cognitive activities of the students were involved in the decision-making processes. One hundred eighth-grade students in Taiwan participated in this…

Fire Ground Decision-Making: Transferring Virtual Knowledge to the Physical Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gillespie, Steven

2013-01-01

The primary purpose of this quantitative study was to examine if simulation training correlated with the decision-making abilities of firefighters from two departments (one in a mountain state and one in a southwest state). The other purposes were to determine if firefighter demographics were correlated with the completion of the simulation…

Decision-Making and Thought Processes among Poker Players

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

St. Germain, Joseph; Tenenbaum, Gershon

2011-01-01

This study was aimed at delineating decision-making and thought processing among poker players who vary in skill-level. Forty-five participants, 15 in each group, comprised expert, intermediate, and novice poker players. They completed the Computer Poker Simulation Task (CPST) comprised of 60 hands of No-Limit Texas Hold 'Em. During the CPST, they…

The Ultimate Sampling Dilemma in Experience-Based Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fiedler, Klaus

2008-01-01

Computer simulations and 2 experiments demonstrate the ultimate sampling dilemma, which constitutes a serious obstacle to inductive inferences in a probabilistic world. Participants were asked to take the role of a manager who is to make purchasing decisions based on positive versus negative feedback about 3 providers in 2 different product…

Power and Flow Experience in Time-Intensive Business Simulation Game

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kiili, Kristian; Lainema, Timo

2010-01-01

Power is an influential component of social interaction and there are reasons for thinking that it may have important effects both on decision-making and psychological and interpersonal processes. The aim of this paper was to study the relations between the feeling of power, decision-making and flow experience in a collaborative business…

Experimental Evaluation of Suitability of Selected Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methods for Large-Scale Agent-Based Simulations.

PubMed

Tučník, Petr; Bureš, Vladimír

2016-01-01

Multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) can be formally implemented by various methods. This study compares suitability of four selected MCDM methods, namely WPM, TOPSIS, VIKOR, and PROMETHEE, for future applications in agent-based computational economic (ACE) models of larger scale (i.e., over 10 000 agents in one geographical region). These four MCDM methods were selected according to their appropriateness for computational processing in ACE applications. Tests of the selected methods were conducted on four hardware configurations. For each method, 100 tests were performed, which represented one testing iteration. With four testing iterations conducted on each hardware setting and separated testing of all configurations with the-server parameter de/activated, altogether, 12800 data points were collected and consequently analyzed. An illustrational decision-making scenario was used which allows the mutual comparison of all of the selected decision making methods. Our test results suggest that although all methods are convenient and can be used in practice, the VIKOR method accomplished the tests with the best results and thus can be recommended as the most suitable for simulations of large-scale agent-based models.

Simulating Spatial Growth Patterns in Developing Countries: A Case of Shama in the Western Region of Ghana.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inkoom, J. N.; Nyarko, B. K.

2014-12-01

The integration of geographic information systems (GIS) and agent-based modelling (ABM) can be an efficient tool to improve spatial planning practices. This paper utilizes GIS and ABM approaches to simulate spatial growth patterns of settlement structures in Shama. A preliminary household survey on residential location decision-making choice served as the behavioural rule for household agents in the model. Physical environment properties of the model were extracted from a 2005 image implemented in NetLogo. The resulting growth pattern model was compared with empirical growth patterns to ascertain the model's accuracy. The paper establishes that the development of unplanned structures and its evolving structural pattern are a function of land price, proximity to economic centres, household economic status and location decision-making patterns. The application of the proposed model underlines its potential for integration into urban planning policies and practices, and for understanding residential decision-making processes in emerging cities in developing countries. Key Words: GIS; Agent-based modelling; Growth patterns; NetLogo; Location decision making; Computational Intelligence.

Shared Problem Models and Crew Decision Making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

The importance of crew decision making to aviation safety has been well established through NTSB accident analyses: Crew judgment and decision making have been cited as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents in commercial air transport, general aviation, and military aviation. Yet the bulk of research on decision making has not proven helpful in improving the quality of decisions in the cockpit. One reason is that traditional analytic decision models are inappropriate to the dynamic complex nature of cockpit decision making and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions. A new model of dynamic naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove more useful for training or aiding cockpit decision making. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulation and National Transportation Safety Board accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation and reflect the crew's metacognitive skill. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relation between communication that serves to build performance. Implications of these findings for crew training will be discussed.

Following Human Footsteps: Proposal of a Decision Theory Based on Human Behavior

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mahmud, Faisal

2011-01-01

Human behavior is a complex nature which depends on circumstances and decisions varying from time to time as well as place to place. The way a decision is made either directly or indirectly related to the availability of the options. These options though appear at random nature, have a solid directional way for decision making. In this paper, a decision theory is proposed which is based on human behavior. The theory is structured with model sets that will show the all possible combinations for making a decision, A virtual and simulated environment is considered to show the results of the proposed decision theory

Clinic Workflow Simulations using Secondary EHR Data

PubMed Central

Hribar, Michelle R.; Biermann, David; Read-Brown, Sarah; Reznick, Leah; Lombardi, Lorinna; Parikh, Mansi; Chamberlain, Winston; Yackel, Thomas R.; Chiang, Michael F.

2016-01-01

Clinicians today face increased patient loads, decreased reimbursements and potential negative productivity impacts of using electronic health records (EHR), but have little guidance on how to improve clinic efficiency. Discrete event simulation models are powerful tools for evaluating clinical workflow and improving efficiency, particularly when they are built from secondary EHR timing data. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate that these simulation models can be used for resource allocation decision making as well as for evaluating novel scheduling strategies in outpatient ophthalmology clinics. Key findings from this study are that: 1) secondary use of EHR timestamp data in simulation models represents clinic workflow, 2) simulations provide insight into the best allocation of resources in a clinic, 3) simulations provide critical information for schedule creation and decision making by clinic managers, and 4) simulation models built from EHR data are potentially generalizable. PMID:28269861

Low cognitive load and reduced arousal impede practice effects on executive functioning, metacognitive confidence and decision making.

PubMed

Jackson, Simon A; Kleitman, Sabina; Aidman, Eugene

2014-01-01

The present study investigated the effects of low cognitive workload and the absence of arousal induced via external physical stimulation (motion) on practice-related improvements in executive (inhibitory) control, short-term memory, metacognitive monitoring and decision making. A total of 70 office workers performed low and moderately engaging passenger tasks in two successive 20-minute simulated drives and repeated a battery of decision making and inhibitory control tests three times—before, between and after these drives. For half the participants, visual simulation was synchronised with (moderately arousing) motion generated through LAnd Motion Platform, with vibration levels corresponding to a well-maintained unsealed road. The other half performed the same simulated drive without motion. Participants' performance significantly improved over the three test blocks, which is indicative of typical practice effects. The magnitude of these improvements was the highest when both motion and moderate cognitive load were present. The same effects declined either in the absence of motion (low arousal) or following a low cognitive workload task, thus suggesting two distinct pathways through which practice-related improvements in cognitive performance may be hampered. Practice, however, degraded certain aspects of metacognitive performance, as participants became less likely to detect incorrect decisions in the decision-making test with each subsequent test block. Implications include consideration of low cognitive load and arousal as factors responsible for performance decline and targets for the development of interventions/strategies in low load/arousal conditions such as autonomous vehicle operations and highway driving.

Simulation modelling as a tool for knowledge mobilisation in health policy settings: a case study protocol.

PubMed

Freebairn, L; Atkinson, J; Kelly, P; McDonnell, G; Rychetnik, L

2016-09-21

Evidence-informed decision-making is essential to ensure that health programs and services are effective and offer value for money; however, barriers to the use of evidence persist. Emerging systems science approaches and advances in technology are providing new methods and tools to facilitate evidence-based decision-making. Simulation modelling offers a unique tool for synthesising and leveraging existing evidence, data and expert local knowledge to examine, in a robust, low risk and low cost way, the likely impact of alternative policy and service provision scenarios. This case study will evaluate participatory simulation modelling to inform the prevention and management of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). The risks associated with GDM are well recognised; however, debate remains regarding diagnostic thresholds and whether screening and treatment to reduce maternal glucose levels reduce the associated risks. A diagnosis of GDM may provide a leverage point for multidisciplinary lifestyle modification interventions. This research will apply and evaluate a simulation modelling approach to understand the complex interrelation of factors that drive GDM rates, test options for screening and interventions, and optimise the use of evidence to inform policy and program decision-making. The study design will use mixed methods to achieve the objectives. Policy, clinical practice and research experts will work collaboratively to develop, test and validate a simulation model of GDM in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). The model will be applied to support evidence-informed policy dialogues with diverse stakeholders for the management of GDM in the ACT. Qualitative methods will be used to evaluate simulation modelling as an evidence synthesis tool to support evidence-based decision-making. Interviews and analysis of workshop recordings will focus on the participants' engagement in the modelling process; perceived value of the participatory process, perceived commitment, influence and confidence of stakeholders in implementing policy and program decisions identified in the modelling process; and the impact of the process in terms of policy and program change. The study will generate empirical evidence on the feasibility and potential value of simulation modelling to support knowledge mobilisation and consensus building in health settings.

Fuzzy methods in decision making process - A particular approach in manufacturing systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coroiu, A. M.

2015-11-01

We are living in a competitive environment, so we can see and understand that the most of manufacturing firms do the best in order to accomplish meeting demand, increasing quality, decreasing costs, and delivery rate. In present a stake point of interest is represented by the development of fuzzy technology. A particular approach for this is represented through the development of methodologies to enhance the ability to managed complicated optimization and decision making aspects involving non-probabilistic uncertainty with the reason to understand, development, and practice the fuzzy technologies to be used in fields such as economic, engineering, management, and societal problems. Fuzzy analysis represents a method for solving problems which are related to uncertainty and vagueness; it is used in multiple areas, such as engineering and has applications in decision making problems, planning and production. As a definition for decision making process we can use the next one: result of mental processes based upon cognitive process with a main role in the selection of a course of action among several alternatives. Every process of decision making can be represented as a result of a final choice and the output can be represented as an action or as an opinion of choice. Different types of uncertainty can be discovered in a wide variety of optimization and decision making problems related to planning and operation of power systems and subsystems. The mixture of the uncertainty factor in the construction of different models serves for increasing their adequacy and, as a result, the reliability and factual efficiency of decisions based on their analysis. Another definition of decision making process which came to illustrate and sustain the necessity of using fuzzy method: the decision making is an approach of choosing a strategy among many different projects in order to achieve some purposes and is formulated as three different models: high risk decision, usual risk decision and low risk decision - some specific formulas of fuzzy logic. The fuzzy set concepts has some certain parameterization features which are certain extensions of crisp and fuzzy relations respectively and have a rich potential for application to the decision making problems. The proposed approach from this paper presents advantages of fuzzy approach, in comparison with other paradigm and presents a particular way in which fuzzy logic can emerge in decision making process and planning process with implication, as a simulation, in manufacturing - involved in measuring performance of advanced manufacturing systems. Finally, an example is presented to illustrate our simulation.

Take the first heuristic, self-efficacy, and decision-making in sport.

PubMed

Hepler, Teri J; Feltz, Deborah L

2012-06-01

Can taking the first (TTF) option in decision-making lead to the best decisions in sports contexts? And, is one's decision-making self-efficacy in that context linked to TTF decisions? The purpose of this study was to examine the role of the TTF heuristic and self-efficacy in decision-making on a simulated sports task. Undergraduate and graduate students (N = 72) participated in the study and performed 13 trials in each of two video-based basketball decision tasks. One task required participants to verbally generate options before making a final decision on what to do next, while the other task simply asked participants to make a decision regarding the next move as quickly as possible. Decision-making self-efficacy was assessed using a 10-item questionnaire comprising various aspects of decision-making in basketball. Participants also rated their confidence in the final decision. Results supported many of the tenets of the TTF heuristic, such that people used the heuristic on a majority of the trials (70%), earlier generated options were better than later ones, first options were meaningfully generated, and final options were meaningfully selected. Results did not support differences in dynamic inconsistency or decision confidence based on the number of options. Findings also supported the link between self-efficacy and the TTF heuristic. Participants with higher self-efficacy beliefs used TTF more frequently and generated fewer options than those with low self-efficacy. Thus, not only is TTF an important heuristic when making decisions in dynamic, time-pressure situations, but self-efficacy plays an influential role in TTF.

Current Scientific Approaches to Decision Making in Complex Systems. 3. Volume 2. Conference Position Papers

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-01-01

Search: Traffic on a Multi- dimensional Structure R. i. Atkin, University of Essex, England b. Annex. Volume 3: Decision: Foundation and Practice Brian R...Gaines, University of Essex, England Volume 4: Competing Modes of Cognition and Communication in Simulated and Self-Reflective Systems Stein Braten... University of Oslo, Norway Volume 5: On the Spontaneous Emergence of Decision Making Constraints in Communicating Hierarchical Structure John S

ENABLING SMART MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGIES FOR DECISION-MAKING SUPPORT

PubMed Central

Helu, Moneer; Libes, Don; Lubell, Joshua; Lyons, Kevin; Morris, KC

2017-01-01

Smart manufacturing combines advanced manufacturing capabilities and digital technologies throughout the product lifecycle. These technologies can provide decision-making support to manufacturers through improved monitoring, analysis, modeling, and simulation that generate more and better intelligence about manufacturing systems. However, challenges and barriers have impeded the adoption of smart manufacturing technologies. To begin to address this need, this paper defines requirements for data-driven decision making in manufacturing based on a generalized description of decision making. Using these requirements, we then focus on identifying key barriers that prevent the development and use of data-driven decision making in industry as well as examples of technologies and standards that have the potential to overcome these barriers. The goal of this research is to promote a common understanding among the manufacturing community that can enable standardization efforts and innovation needed to continue adoption and use of smart manufacturing technologies. PMID:28649678

Heuristics in Managing Complex Clinical Decision Tasks in Experts’ Decision Making

PubMed Central

Islam, Roosan; Weir, Charlene; Del Fiol, Guilherme

2016-01-01

Background Clinical decision support is a tool to help experts make optimal and efficient decisions. However, little is known about the high level of abstractions in the thinking process for the experts. Objective The objective of the study is to understand how clinicians manage complexity while dealing with complex clinical decision tasks. Method After approval from the Institutional Review Board (IRB), three clinical experts were interviewed the transcripts from these interviews were analyzed. Results We found five broad categories of strategies by experts for managing complex clinical decision tasks: decision conflict, mental projection, decision trade-offs, managing uncertainty and generating rule of thumb. Conclusion Complexity is created by decision conflicts, mental projection, limited options and treatment uncertainty. Experts cope with complexity in a variety of ways, including using efficient and fast decision strategies to simplify complex decision tasks, mentally simulating outcomes and focusing on only the most relevant information. Application Understanding complex decision making processes can help design allocation based on the complexity of task for clinical decision support design. PMID:27275019

Heuristics in Managing Complex Clinical Decision Tasks in Experts' Decision Making.

PubMed

Islam, Roosan; Weir, Charlene; Del Fiol, Guilherme

2014-09-01

Clinical decision support is a tool to help experts make optimal and efficient decisions. However, little is known about the high level of abstractions in the thinking process for the experts. The objective of the study is to understand how clinicians manage complexity while dealing with complex clinical decision tasks. After approval from the Institutional Review Board (IRB), three clinical experts were interviewed the transcripts from these interviews were analyzed. We found five broad categories of strategies by experts for managing complex clinical decision tasks: decision conflict, mental projection, decision trade-offs, managing uncertainty and generating rule of thumb. Complexity is created by decision conflicts, mental projection, limited options and treatment uncertainty. Experts cope with complexity in a variety of ways, including using efficient and fast decision strategies to simplify complex decision tasks, mentally simulating outcomes and focusing on only the most relevant information. Understanding complex decision making processes can help design allocation based on the complexity of task for clinical decision support design.

R&D for computational cognitive and social models : foundations for model evaluation through verification and validation (final LDRD report).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Slepoy, Alexander; Mitchell, Scott A.; Backus, George A.

2008-09-01

Sandia National Laboratories is investing in projects that aim to develop computational modeling and simulation applications that explore human cognitive and social phenomena. While some of these modeling and simulation projects are explicitly research oriented, others are intended to support or provide insight for people involved in high consequence decision-making. This raises the issue of how to evaluate computational modeling and simulation applications in both research and applied settings where human behavior is the focus of the model: when is a simulation 'good enough' for the goals its designers want to achieve? In this report, we discuss two years' worthmore » of review and assessment of the ASC program's approach to computational model verification and validation, uncertainty quantification, and decision making. We present a framework that extends the principles of the ASC approach into the area of computational social and cognitive modeling and simulation. In doing so, we argue that the potential for evaluation is a function of how the modeling and simulation software will be used in a particular setting. In making this argument, we move from strict, engineering and physics oriented approaches to V&V to a broader project of model evaluation, which asserts that the systematic, rigorous, and transparent accumulation of evidence about a model's performance under conditions of uncertainty is a reasonable and necessary goal for model evaluation, regardless of discipline. How to achieve the accumulation of evidence in areas outside physics and engineering is a significant research challenge, but one that requires addressing as modeling and simulation tools move out of research laboratories and into the hands of decision makers. This report provides an assessment of our thinking on ASC Verification and Validation, and argues for further extending V&V research in the physical and engineering sciences toward a broader program of model evaluation in situations of high consequence decision-making.« less

Using medical simulation to teach crisis resource management and decision-making skills to otolaryngology housestaff.

PubMed

Volk, Mark S; Ward, Jessica; Irias, Noel; Navedo, Andres; Pollart, Jennifer; Weinstock, Peter H

2011-07-01

Develop a course to use in situ high-fidelity medical simulation (HFS) in an actual operating room (OR) to (1) teach teamwork and crisis resource management (CRM) skills simultaneously to otolaryngology and anesthesia trainees and OR nurses and (2) provide decision-making experience to ear, nose, and throat residents and OR teams in simulated high-risk, low-frequency airway emergencies. A simulation-based, in situ CRM course was developed to teach airway management and CRM in the OR. Upon completion of each course, the participants were surveyed using questions with (1-5) scale answers. The simulated clinical scenarios took place in the intensive care unit and OR at Children's Hospital Boston. The participants consisted of pediatric otolaryngology fellows, otolaryngology residents, anesthesiology residents, fellows, and certified registered nurse anesthetists as well as OR nurses. Fifty-nine individuals participated in 9 simulation-based courses given between October 2008 and May 2010. The team members participated together in 3 simulated medical crises that centered on airway and anesthesia issues. Each simulated crisis was followed by a structured debriefing session conducted by trained debriefers. Embedded within the course were didactics on CRM principles. The participants' responses on the survey included General Course Organization, Realism, Debriefing, and Relevance to Future Practice. Ninety percent of the responses were favorable or very favorable. Using a newly developed, in situ HFS-based course, clinical decision-making skills and teamwork can be effectively taught concurrently to members of an OR team.

Who do you trust? The impact of facial emotion and behaviour on decision making

PubMed Central

Campellone, Timothy R.; Kring, Ann M.

2014-01-01

During social interactions, we use available information to guide our decisions, including behaviour and emotional displays. In some situations, behaviour and emotional displays may be incongruent, complicating decision making. This study had two main aims: first, to investigate the independent contributions of behaviour and facial displays of emotion on decisions to trust, and, second, to examine what happens when the information being signalled by a facial display is incongruent with behaviour. Participants played a modified version of the Trust Game in which they learned simulated players’ behaviour with or without concurrent displays of facial emotion. Results indicated that displays of anger, but not happiness, influenced decisions to trust during initial encounters. Over the course of repeated interactions, however, emotional displays consistent with an established pattern of behaviour made independent contributions to decision making, strengthening decisions to trust. When facial display and behaviour were incongruent, participants used current behaviour to inform decision making. PMID:23017055

Applying a multi-replication framework to support dynamic situation assessment and predictive capabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lammers, Craig; McGraw, Robert M.; Steinman, Jeffrey S.

2005-05-01

Technological advances and emerging threats reduce the time between target detection and action to an order of a few minutes. To effectively assist with the decision-making process, C4I decision support tools must quickly and dynamically predict and assess alternative Courses Of Action (COAs) to assist Commanders in anticipating potential outcomes. These capabilities can be provided through the faster-than-real-time predictive simulation of plans that are continuously re-calibrating with the real-time picture. This capability allows decision-makers to assess the effects of re-tasking opportunities, providing the decision-maker with tremendous freedom to make time-critical, mid-course decisions. This paper presents an overview and demonstrates the use of a software infrastructure that supports DSAP capabilities. These DSAP capabilities are demonstrated through the use of a Multi-Replication Framework that supports (1) predictivie simulations using JSAF (Joint Semi-Automated Forces); (2) real-time simulation, also using JSAF, as a state estimation mechanism; and, (3) real-time C4I data updates through TBMCS (Theater Battle Management Core Systems). This infrastructure allows multiple replications of a simulation to be executed simultaneously over a grid faster-than-real-time, calibrated with live data feeds. A cost evaluator mechanism analyzes potential outcomes and prunes simulations that diverge from the real-time picture. In particular, this paper primarily serves to walk a user through the process for using the Multi-Replication Framework providing an enhanced decision aid.

epiDMS: Data Management and Analytics for Decision-Making From Epidemic Spread Simulation Ensembles.

PubMed

Liu, Sicong; Poccia, Silvestro; Candan, K Selçuk; Chowell, Gerardo; Sapino, Maria Luisa

2016-12-01

Carefully calibrated large-scale computational models of epidemic spread represent a powerful tool to support the decision-making process during epidemic emergencies. Epidemic models are being increasingly used for generating forecasts of the spatial-temporal progression of epidemics at different spatial scales and for assessing the likely impact of different intervention strategies. However, the management and analysis of simulation ensembles stemming from large-scale computational models pose challenges, particularly when dealing with multiple interdependent parameters, spanning multiple layers and geospatial frames, affected by complex dynamic processes operating at different resolutions. We describe and illustrate with examples a novel epidemic simulation data management system, epiDMS, that was developed to address the challenges that arise from the need to generate, search, visualize, and analyze, in a scalable manner, large volumes of epidemic simulation ensembles and observations during the progression of an epidemic. epiDMS is a publicly available system that facilitates management and analysis of large epidemic simulation ensembles. epiDMS aims to fill an important hole in decision-making during healthcare emergencies by enabling critical services with significant economic and health impact. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Effects of Safety Information on Aeronautical Decision Making

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Jang R.; Fanjoy, Richard O.; Dillman, Brian G.

2005-01-01

The importance of aeronautical decision making (ADM) has been considered one of the most critical issues of flight education for future professional pilots. Researchers have suggested that a safety information system based on information from incidents and near misses is an important tool to improve the intelligence and readiness of pilots. This paper describes a study that examines the effect of safety information on aeronautical decision making for students in a collegiate flight program. Data was collected from study participants who were exposed to periodic information about local aircraft malfunctions. Participants were then evaluated using a flight simulator profile and a pen and pencil test of situational judgment. Findings suggest that regular access to the described safety information program significantly improves decision making of student pilots.

On Using Simulations to Inform Decision Making during Instrument Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morgan, Grant B.; Moore, Courtney A.; Floyd, Harlee S.

2018-01-01

Although content validity--how well each item of an instrument represents the construct being measured--is foundational in the development of an instrument, statistical validity is also important to the decisions that are made based on the instrument. The primary purpose of this study is to demonstrate how simulation studies can be used to assist…

User Oriented Techniques to Support Interaction and Decision Making with Large Educational Databases

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartley, Roger; Almuhaidib, Saud M. Y.

2007-01-01

Information Technology is developing rapidly and providing policy/decision makers with large amounts of information that require processing and analysis. Decision support systems (DSS) aim to provide tools that not only help such analyses, but enable the decision maker to experiment and simulate the effects of different policies and selection…

Finding shared decisions in stakeholder networks: An agent-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Pira, Michela; Inturri, Giuseppe; Ignaccolo, Matteo; Pluchino, Alessandro; Rapisarda, Andrea

2017-01-01

We address the problem of a participatory decision-making process where a shared priority list of alternatives has to be obtained while avoiding inconsistent decisions. An agent-based model (ABM) is proposed to mimic this process in different social networks of stakeholders who interact according to an opinion dynamics model. Simulations' results show the efficacy of interaction in finding a transitive and, above all, shared decision. These findings are in agreement with real participation experiences regarding transport planning decisions and can give useful suggestions on how to plan an effective participation process for sustainable policy-making based on opinion consensus.

Overrepresentation of extreme events in decision making reflects rational use of cognitive resources.

PubMed

Lieder, Falk; Griffiths, Thomas L; Hsu, Ming

2018-01-01

People's decisions and judgments are disproportionately swayed by improbable but extreme eventualities, such as terrorism, that come to mind easily. This article explores whether such availability biases can be reconciled with rational information processing by taking into account the fact that decision makers value their time and have limited cognitive resources. Our analysis suggests that to make optimal use of their finite time decision makers should overrepresent the most important potential consequences relative to less important, put potentially more probable, outcomes. To evaluate this account, we derive and test a model we call utility-weighted sampling. Utility-weighted sampling estimates the expected utility of potential actions by simulating their outcomes. Critically, outcomes with more extreme utilities have a higher probability of being simulated. We demonstrate that this model can explain not only people's availability bias in judging the frequency of extreme events but also a wide range of cognitive biases in decisions from experience, decisions from description, and memory recall. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Using Gaming Technology to Teach Ethical Decision-Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sloane, Sharon; Holmes, Elizabeth

2009-01-01

The authors describe the steps in the ethical decision-making process and show how employers and educators are addressing ethical gray areas using innovative simulations in order to better prepare employees and other personnel to face ethical challenges head-on. The model outlined in this article can be used as a teaching and training tool to…

Teacher Knowledge about Technology Integration: An Examination of Inservice and Preservice Teachers' Instructional Decision-Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Greenhow, Christine; Dexter, Sara; Hughes, Joan E.

2008-01-01

This study compared the abilities of inservice and preservice teachers to demonstrate an understanding of technology integration and to apply such knowledge to instructional decision-making. Using a set of online content-specific multimedia scenarios to resolve complex problems of teaching with technology in a simulated school environment,…

The Academic Game. A Simulation of Policy-Making in a University For 8 to 20 Players.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jaques, David

The Academic Game, considered a valuable exercise for academics and administrators in investigating some of the problems of decision-making and possible ways of facilitating organizational decisions, is described. The major objective of the game is to achieve on agreed promotion policy. The roles and organization structure are designed to ensure…

Facilitating Adoption of News Tool to Develop Clinical Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Robin T.

2017-01-01

This scholarly project was a non-experimental, pre/post-test design to (a) facilitate the voluntary adoption of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS), and (b) develop clinical decision making (CDM) in one cohort of junior level nursing students participating in a simulation lab. NEWS is an evidence-based predictive scoring tool developed by the…

Social Studies Materials--"A Simulating Experience"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Place, Daniel R.

1976-01-01

Maintains that simulation games in social studies education are successful because they combine factual content, skills development, and experience in decision making. The five simulations described are Explorers I, River City, Boxcars, The Union Divides, and Starpower. (Author/DB)

A dataset of human decision-making in teamwork management.

PubMed

Yu, Han; Shen, Zhiqi; Miao, Chunyan; Leung, Cyril; Chen, Yiqiang; Fauvel, Simon; Lin, Jun; Cui, Lizhen; Pan, Zhengxiang; Yang, Qiang

2017-01-17

Today, most endeavours require teamwork by people with diverse skills and characteristics. In managing teamwork, decisions are often made under uncertainty and resource constraints. The strategies and the effectiveness of the strategies different people adopt to manage teamwork under different situations have not yet been fully explored, partially due to a lack of detailed large-scale data. In this paper, we describe a multi-faceted large-scale dataset to bridge this gap. It is derived from a game simulating complex project management processes. It presents the participants with different conditions in terms of team members' capabilities and task characteristics for them to exhibit their decision-making strategies. The dataset contains detailed data reflecting the decision situations, decision strategies, decision outcomes, and the emotional responses of 1,144 participants from diverse backgrounds. To our knowledge, this is the first dataset simultaneously covering these four facets of decision-making. With repeated measurements, the dataset may help establish baseline variability of decision-making in teamwork management, leading to more realistic decision theoretic models and more effective decision support approaches.

A dataset of human decision-making in teamwork management

PubMed Central

Yu, Han; Shen, Zhiqi; Miao, Chunyan; Leung, Cyril; Chen, Yiqiang; Fauvel, Simon; Lin, Jun; Cui, Lizhen; Pan, Zhengxiang; Yang, Qiang

2017-01-01

Today, most endeavours require teamwork by people with diverse skills and characteristics. In managing teamwork, decisions are often made under uncertainty and resource constraints. The strategies and the effectiveness of the strategies different people adopt to manage teamwork under different situations have not yet been fully explored, partially due to a lack of detailed large-scale data. In this paper, we describe a multi-faceted large-scale dataset to bridge this gap. It is derived from a game simulating complex project management processes. It presents the participants with different conditions in terms of team members’ capabilities and task characteristics for them to exhibit their decision-making strategies. The dataset contains detailed data reflecting the decision situations, decision strategies, decision outcomes, and the emotional responses of 1,144 participants from diverse backgrounds. To our knowledge, this is the first dataset simultaneously covering these four facets of decision-making. With repeated measurements, the dataset may help establish baseline variability of decision-making in teamwork management, leading to more realistic decision theoretic models and more effective decision support approaches. PMID:28094787

A dataset of human decision-making in teamwork management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Han; Shen, Zhiqi; Miao, Chunyan; Leung, Cyril; Chen, Yiqiang; Fauvel, Simon; Lin, Jun; Cui, Lizhen; Pan, Zhengxiang; Yang, Qiang

2017-01-01

Today, most endeavours require teamwork by people with diverse skills and characteristics. In managing teamwork, decisions are often made under uncertainty and resource constraints. The strategies and the effectiveness of the strategies different people adopt to manage teamwork under different situations have not yet been fully explored, partially due to a lack of detailed large-scale data. In this paper, we describe a multi-faceted large-scale dataset to bridge this gap. It is derived from a game simulating complex project management processes. It presents the participants with different conditions in terms of team members' capabilities and task characteristics for them to exhibit their decision-making strategies. The dataset contains detailed data reflecting the decision situations, decision strategies, decision outcomes, and the emotional responses of 1,144 participants from diverse backgrounds. To our knowledge, this is the first dataset simultaneously covering these four facets of decision-making. With repeated measurements, the dataset may help establish baseline variability of decision-making in teamwork management, leading to more realistic decision theoretic models and more effective decision support approaches.

Decision Making in the Airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

1995-01-01

The Importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful In improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking In response to a problem, This presentation will examine the relations between leadership, communication, decision making and overall crew performance. Implications of these findings for training will be discussed.

Hirarchical emotion calculation model for virtual human modellin - biomed 2010.

PubMed

Zhao, Yue; Wright, David

2010-01-01

This paper introduces a new emotion generation method for virtual human modelling. The method includes a novel hierarchical emotion structure, a group of emotion calculation equations and a simple heuristics decision making mechanism, which enables virtual humans to perform emotionally in real-time according to their internal and external factors. Emotion calculation equations used in this research were derived from psychologic emotion measurements. Virtual humans can utilise the information in virtual memory and emotion calculation equations to generate their own numerical emotion states within the hierarchical emotion structure. Those emotion states are important internal references for virtual humans to adopt appropriate behaviours and also key cues for their decision making. A simple heuristics theory is introduced and integrated into decision making process in order to make the virtual humans decision making more like a real human. A data interface which connects the emotion calculation and the decision making structure together has also been designed and simulated to test the method in Virtools environment.

A constructivist approach to studying the bullwhip effect by simulating the supply chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Torre, Pilar L.; Adenso-Díaz, B.; Moreno, Plácido

2015-11-01

The Cider Game is a simulator for a supply chain-related learning environment. Its main feature is that it provides support to students in the constructivist discovery process when learning how to make logistics decisions, at the same time as noting the occurrence of the bullwhip phenomenon. This learning environment seeks a balance between direct instruction in the learning process on the part of the tutor, and a suitable and sufficient degree of freedom to regulate independent learning on the part of students. This article describes the basic learning mechanisms using the Cider Game and the graphical learning environments that it provides. We describe the functionality provided by this application, and analyse the effect over the rational understanding of the bullwhip phenomenon by the students and whether they are able to make decisions to minimise its impact, studying the differences when that decision-making learning is done individually or in groups.

Nursing Student Perceptions Regarding Simulation Experience Sequencing.

PubMed

Woda, Aimee A; Gruenke, Theresa; Alt-Gehrman, Penny; Hansen, Jamie

2016-09-01

The use of simulated learning experiences (SLEs) have increased within nursing curricula with positive learning outcomes for nursing students. The purpose of this study is to explore nursing students' perceptions of their clinical decision making (CDM) related to the block sequencing of different patient care experiences, SLEs versus hospital-based learning experiences (HLEs). A qualitative descriptive design used open-ended survey questions to generate information about the block sequencing of SLEs and its impact on nursing students' perceived CDM. Three themes emerged from the data: Preexperience Anxiety, Real-Time Decision Making, and Increased Patient Care Experiences. Nursing students identified that having SLEs prior to HLEs provided several benefits. Even when students preferred SLEs prior to HLEs, the sequence did not impact their CDM. This suggests that alternating block sequencing can be used without impacting the students' perceptions of their ability to make decisions. [J Nurs Educ. 2016;55(9):528-532.]. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

The role of conviction and narrative in decision-making under radical uncertainty.

PubMed

Tuckett, David; Nikolic, Milena

2017-08-01

We propose conviction narrative theory (CNT) to broaden decision-making theory in order to better understand and analyse how subjectively means-end rational actors cope in contexts in which the traditional assumptions in decision-making models fail to hold. Conviction narratives enable actors to draw on their beliefs, causal models, and rules of thumb to identify opportunities worth acting on, to simulate the future outcome of their actions, and to feel sufficiently convinced to act. The framework focuses on how narrative and emotion combine to allow actors to deliberate and to select actions that they think will produce the outcomes they desire. It specifies connections between particular emotions and deliberative thought, hypothesising that approach and avoidance emotions evoked during narrative simulation play a crucial role. Two mental states, Divided and Integrated, in which narratives can be formed or updated, are introduced and used to explain some familiar problems that traditional models cannot.

The role of conviction and narrative in decision-making under radical uncertainty

PubMed Central

Tuckett, David; Nikolic, Milena

2017-01-01

We propose conviction narrative theory (CNT) to broaden decision-making theory in order to better understand and analyse how subjectively means–end rational actors cope in contexts in which the traditional assumptions in decision-making models fail to hold. Conviction narratives enable actors to draw on their beliefs, causal models, and rules of thumb to identify opportunities worth acting on, to simulate the future outcome of their actions, and to feel sufficiently convinced to act. The framework focuses on how narrative and emotion combine to allow actors to deliberate and to select actions that they think will produce the outcomes they desire. It specifies connections between particular emotions and deliberative thought, hypothesising that approach and avoidance emotions evoked during narrative simulation play a crucial role. Two mental states, Divided and Integrated, in which narratives can be formed or updated, are introduced and used to explain some familiar problems that traditional models cannot. PMID:28804217

Three-Dimension Visualization for Primary Wheat Diseases Based on Simulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shijuan, Li; Yeping, Zhu

Crop simulation model has been becoming the core of agricultural production management and resource optimization management. Displaying crop growth process makes user observe the crop growth and development intuitionisticly. On the basis of understanding and grasping the occurrence condition, popularity season, key impact factors for main wheat diseases of stripe rust, leaf rust, stem rust, head blight and powdery mildew from research material and literature, we designed 3D visualization model for wheat growth and diseases occurrence. The model system will help farmer, technician and decision-maker to use crop growth simulation model better and provide decision-making support. Now 3D visualization model for wheat growth on the basis of simulation model has been developed, and the visualization model for primary wheat diseases is in the process of development.

Decision Making in Action: Applying Research to Practice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith; Hart, Sandra G. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment: Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relations between leadership, communication, decision making and overall crew performance. Implications of these findings for training will be discussed.

Making It Real: Using a Collaborative Simulation to Teach Crisis Communications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olson, K. S.

2012-01-01

Even seasoned public relations (PR) practitioners can find it difficult to handle communications during a crisis situation when the consequences of making poor decisions may seem overwhelming. This article shares results from using a collaborative simulation to teach college students about crisis communications in an advanced-level PR course.…

The Effect of Introducing Coaching from an Experienced Business Professional on Performance in a Computer Simulation Classroom Exercise

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dickinson, J. Barry; Dickinson, Carleen D.

2012-01-01

This study examines the impact that experienced mentoring has on business decisions in a higher education business school. Students, arranged in teams, were given the opportunity to operate virtual companies in a well-known, business simulation program called Capsim. They were required to make decisions concerning marketing, production, finance,…

Use of Business Simulations and Games in Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lloyd, John W.

Simulation and business games can meet the need to teach decision making in that they offer a dynamic context in which the results of a decision has to be lived with. This view was reached after a switch from business to higher education prompted a search for teaching methods more suitable and effective for business education than the lecture…

Desktop microsimulation: a tool to improve efficiency in the medical office practice.

PubMed

Montgomery, James B; Linville, Beth A; Slonim, Anthony D

2013-01-01

Because the economic crisis in the United States continues to have an impact on healthcare organizations, industry leaders must optimize their decision making. Discrete-event computer simulation is a quality tool with a demonstrated track record of improving the precision of analysis for process redesign. However, the use of simulation to consolidate practices and design efficiencies into an unfinished medical office building was a unique task. A discrete-event computer simulation package was used to model the operations and forecast future results for four orthopedic surgery practices. The scenarios were created to allow an evaluation of the impact of process change on the output variables of exam room utilization, patient queue size, and staff utilization. The model helped with decisions regarding space allocation and efficient exam room use by demonstrating the impact of process changes in patient queues at check-in/out, x-ray, and cast room locations when compared to the status quo model. The analysis impacted decisions on facility layout, patient flow, and staff functions in this newly consolidated practice. Simulation was found to be a useful tool for process redesign and decision making even prior to building occupancy. © 2011 National Association for Healthcare Quality.

Low Cognitive Load and Reduced Arousal Impede Practice Effects on Executive Functioning, Metacognitive Confidence and Decision Making

PubMed Central

Jackson, Simon A.; Kleitman, Sabina; Aidman, Eugene

2014-01-01

The present study investigated the effects of low cognitive workload and the absence of arousal induced via external physical stimulation (motion) on practice-related improvements in executive (inhibitory) control, short-term memory, metacognitive monitoring and decision making. A total of 70 office workers performed low and moderately engaging passenger tasks in two successive 20-minute simulated drives and repeated a battery of decision making and inhibitory control tests three times – before, between and after these drives. For half the participants, visual simulation was synchronised with (moderately arousing) motion generated through LAnd Motion Platform, with vibration levels corresponding to a well-maintained unsealed road. The other half performed the same simulated drive without motion. Participants’ performance significantly improved over the three test blocks, which is indicative of typical practice effects. The magnitude of these improvements was the highest when both motion and moderate cognitive load were present. The same effects declined either in the absence of motion (low arousal) or following a low cognitive workload task, thus suggesting two distinct pathways through which practice-related improvements in cognitive performance may be hampered. Practice, however, degraded certain aspects of metacognitive performance, as participants became less likely to detect incorrect decisions in the decision-making test with each subsequent test block. Implications include consideration of low cognitive load and arousal as factors responsible for performance decline and targets for the development of interventions/strategies in low load/arousal conditions such as autonomous vehicle operations and highway driving. PMID:25549327

The Effects of Stress on Pilot Judgment in a MIDIS Simulator

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-02-01

stress were relatively independent of problem demands for working memory and knowledge. Keywords: Decision making; Stress psychology; Pilot judgment; Divided attention; Cognitive task analysis ; Flight simulators.

Student Workshops for Severe Weather Warning Decision Making using AWIPS-2 at the University of Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zwink, A. B.; Morris, D.; Ware, P. J.; Ernst, S.; Holcomb, B.; Riley, S.; Hardy, J.; Mullens, S.; Bowlan, M.; Payne, C.; Bates, A.; Williams, B.

2016-12-01

For several years, employees at the Cooperative Institute of Mesoscale Meteorological Studies at the University of Oklahoma (OU) that are affiliated with Warning Decision Training Division (WDTD) of the National Weather Service (NWS) provided training simulations to students from OU's School of Meteorology (SoM). These simulations focused on warning decision making using Dual-Pol radar data products in an AWIPS-1 environment. Building on these previous experiences, CIMMS/WDTD recently continued the collaboration with the SoM Oklahoma Weather Lab (OWL) by holding a warning decision workshop simulating a NWS Weather Forecast Office (WFO) experience. The workshop took place in the WDTD AWIPS-2 computer laboratory with 25 AWIPS-2 workstations and the WES-2 Bridge (Weather Event Simulator) software which replayed AWIPS-2 data. Using the WES-2 Bridge and the WESSL-2 (WES Scripting Language) event display, this computer lab has the state-of-the-art ability to simulate severe weather events and recreate WFO warning operations. OWL Student forecasters attending the workshop worked in teams in a multi-player simulation of the Hastings, Nebraska WFO on May 6th, 2015, where thunderstorms across the service area produced large hail, damaging winds, and multiple tornadoes. This paper will discuss the design and goals of the WDTD/OWL workshop, as well as plans for holding similar workshops in the future.

Sensemaking Strategies for Ethical Decision-making.

PubMed

Caughron, Jay J; Antes, Alison L; Stenmark, Cheryl K; Thiel, Chaise E; Wang, Xiaoqian; Mumford, Michael D

2011-01-01

The current study uses a sensemaking model and thinking strategies identified in earlier research to examine ethical decision-making. Using a sample of 163 undergraduates, a low fidelity simulation approach is used to study the effects personal involvement (in causing the problem and personal involvement in experiencing the outcomes of the problem) could have on the use of cognitive reasoning strategies that have been shown to promote ethical decision-making. A mediated model is presented which suggests that environmental factors influence reasoning strategies, reasoning strategies influence sensemaking, and sensemaking in turn influences ethical decision-making. Findings were mixed but generally supported the hypothesized model. Interestingly, framing the outcomes of ethically charged situations in terms of more global organizational outcomes rather than personal outcomes was found to promote the use of pro-ethical cognitive reasoning strategies.

Sensemaking Strategies for Ethical Decision-making

PubMed Central

Caughron, Jay J.; Antes, Alison L.; Stenmark, Cheryl K.; Thiel, Chaise E.; Wang, Xiaoqian; Mumford, Michael D.

2015-01-01

The current study uses a sensemaking model and thinking strategies identified in earlier research to examine ethical decision-making. Using a sample of 163 undergraduates, a low fidelity simulation approach is used to study the effects personal involvement (in causing the problem and personal involvement in experiencing the outcomes of the problem) could have on the use of cognitive reasoning strategies that have been shown to promote ethical decision-making. A mediated model is presented which suggests that environmental factors influence reasoning strategies, reasoning strategies influence sensemaking, and sensemaking in turn influences ethical decision-making. Findings were mixed but generally supported the hypothesized model. Interestingly, framing the outcomes of ethically charged situations in terms of more global organizational outcomes rather than personal outcomes was found to promote the use of pro-ethical cognitive reasoning strategies. PMID:26257505

Advanced Productivity Analysis Methods for Air Traffic Control Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

1976-12-01

Routine Work ............................... 37 4.2.2. Surveillance Work .......................... 40 4.2.3. Conflict Prcessing Work ................... 41...crossing and overtake conflicts) includes potential- conflict recognition, assessment, and resolution decision making and A/N voice communications...makers to utilize £ .quantitative and dynamic analysis as a tool for decision - making. 1.1.3 Types of Simulation Models Although there are many ways to

How Do Expert Soccer Players Encode Visual Information to Make Decisions in Simulated Game Situations?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Poplu, Gerald; Ripoll, Hubert; Mavromatis, Sebastien; Baratgin, Jean

2008-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine what visual information expert soccer players encode when they are asked to make a decision. We used a repetition-priming paradigm to test the hypothesis that experts encode a soccer pattern's structure independently of the players' physical characteristics (i.e., posture and morphology). The participants…

Experimental Evaluation of Suitability of Selected Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methods for Large-Scale Agent-Based Simulations

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) can be formally implemented by various methods. This study compares suitability of four selected MCDM methods, namely WPM, TOPSIS, VIKOR, and PROMETHEE, for future applications in agent-based computational economic (ACE) models of larger scale (i.e., over 10 000 agents in one geographical region). These four MCDM methods were selected according to their appropriateness for computational processing in ACE applications. Tests of the selected methods were conducted on four hardware configurations. For each method, 100 tests were performed, which represented one testing iteration. With four testing iterations conducted on each hardware setting and separated testing of all configurations with the–server parameter de/activated, altogether, 12800 data points were collected and consequently analyzed. An illustrational decision-making scenario was used which allows the mutual comparison of all of the selected decision making methods. Our test results suggest that although all methods are convenient and can be used in practice, the VIKOR method accomplished the tests with the best results and thus can be recommended as the most suitable for simulations of large-scale agent-based models. PMID:27806061

Decision making in urological surgery.

PubMed

Abboudi, Hamid; Ahmed, Kamran; Normahani, Pasha; Abboudi, May; Kirby, Roger; Challacombe, Ben; Khan, Mohammed Shamim; Dasgupta, Prokar

2012-06-01

Non-technical skills are important behavioural aspects that a urologist must be fully competent at to minimise harm to patients. The majority of surgical errors are now known to be due to errors in judgment and decision making as opposed to the technical aspects of the craft. The authors reviewed the published literature regarding decision-making theory and in practice related to urology as well as the current tools available to assess decision-making skills. Limitations include limited number of studies, and the available studies are of low quality. Decision making is the psychological process of choosing between alternative courses of action. In the surgical environment, this can often be a complex balance of benefit and risk within a variable time frame and dynamic setting. In recent years, the emphasis of new surgical curriculums has shifted towards non-technical surgical skills; however, the assessment tools in place are far from objective, reliable and valid. Surgical simulators and video-assisted questionnaires are useful methods for appraisal of trainees. Well-designed, robust and validated tools need to be implemented in training and assessment of decision-making skills in urology. Patient safety can only be ensured when safe and effective decisions are made.

Assessing the value of post-processed state-of-the-art long-term weather forecast ensembles for agricultural water management mediated by farmers' behaviours

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yu; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea

2016-04-01

Recent advances in modelling of coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics significantly improved skills of long-term climate forecast from global circulation models (GCMs). These more accurate weather predictions are supposed to be a valuable support to farmers in optimizing farming operations (e.g. crop choice, cropping and watering time) and for more effectively coping with the adverse impacts of climate variability. Yet, assessing how actually valuable this information can be to a farmer is not straightforward and farmers' response must be taken into consideration. Indeed, in the context of agricultural systems potentially useful forecast information should alter stakeholders' expectation, modify their decisions, and ultimately produce an impact on their performance. Nevertheless, long-term forecast are mostly evaluated in terms of accuracy (i.e., forecast quality) by comparing hindcast and observed values and only few studies investigated the operational value of forecast looking at the gain of utility within the decision-making context, e.g. by considering the derivative of forecast information, such as simulated crop yields or simulated soil moisture, which are essential to farmers' decision-making process. In this study, we contribute a step further in the assessment of the operational value of long-term weather forecasts products by embedding these latter into farmers' behavioral models. This allows a more critical assessment of the forecast value mediated by the end-users' perspective, including farmers' risk attitudes and behavioral patterns. Specifically, we evaluate the operational value of thirteen state-of-the-art long-range forecast products against climatology forecast and empirical prediction (i.e. past year climate and historical average) within an integrated agronomic modeling framework embedding an implicit model of the farmers' decision-making process. Raw ensemble datasets are bias-corrected and downscaled using a stochastic weather generator, in order to address the mismatch of the spatio-temporal scale between forecast data from GCMs and our model. For each product, the experiment is composed by two cascade simulations: 1) an ex-ante simulation using forecast data, and 2) an ex-post simulation with observations. Multi-year simulations are performed to account for climate variability, and the operational value of the different forecast products is evaluated against the perfect foresight on the basis of expected crop productivity as well as the final decisions under different decision-making criterions. Our results show that not all products generate beneficial effects to farmers' performance, and the forecast errors might be amplified due to farmers' decision-making process and risk attitudes, yielding little or even worse performance compared with the empirical approaches.

An agent-based simulation combined with group decision-making technique for improving the performance of an emergency department.

PubMed

Yousefi, M; Ferreira, R P M

2017-03-30

This study presents an agent-based simulation modeling in an emergency department. In a traditional approach, a supervisor (or a manager) allocates the resources (receptionist, nurses, doctors, etc.) to different sections based on personal experience or by using decision-support tools. In this study, each staff agent took part in the process of allocating resources based on their observation in their respective sections, which gave the system the advantage of utilizing all the available human resources during the workday by being allocated to a different section. In this simulation, unlike previous studies, all staff agents took part in the decision-making process to re-allocate the resources in the emergency department. The simulation modeled the behavior of patients, receptionists, triage nurses, emergency room nurses and doctors. Patients were able to decide whether to stay in the system or leave the department at any stage of treatment. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, 6 different scenarios were introduced. In each scenario, various key performance indicators were investigated before and after applying the group decision-making. The outputs of each simulation were number of deaths, number of patients who leave the emergency department without being attended, length of stay, waiting time and total number of discharged patients from the emergency department. Applying the self-organizing approach in the simulation showed an average of 12.7 and 14.4% decrease in total waiting time and number of patients who left without being seen, respectively. The results showed an average increase of 11.5% in total number of discharged patients from emergency department.

An agent-based simulation combined with group decision-making technique for improving the performance of an emergency department

PubMed Central

Yousefi, M.; Ferreira, R.P.M.

2017-01-01

This study presents an agent-based simulation modeling in an emergency department. In a traditional approach, a supervisor (or a manager) allocates the resources (receptionist, nurses, doctors, etc.) to different sections based on personal experience or by using decision-support tools. In this study, each staff agent took part in the process of allocating resources based on their observation in their respective sections, which gave the system the advantage of utilizing all the available human resources during the workday by being allocated to a different section. In this simulation, unlike previous studies, all staff agents took part in the decision-making process to re-allocate the resources in the emergency department. The simulation modeled the behavior of patients, receptionists, triage nurses, emergency room nurses and doctors. Patients were able to decide whether to stay in the system or leave the department at any stage of treatment. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, 6 different scenarios were introduced. In each scenario, various key performance indicators were investigated before and after applying the group decision-making. The outputs of each simulation were number of deaths, number of patients who leave the emergency department without being attended, length of stay, waiting time and total number of discharged patients from the emergency department. Applying the self-organizing approach in the simulation showed an average of 12.7 and 14.4% decrease in total waiting time and number of patients who left without being seen, respectively. The results showed an average increase of 11.5% in total number of discharged patients from emergency department. PMID:28380196

Using simulation to assess the influence of race and insurer on shared decision making in periviable counseling.

PubMed

Tucker Edmonds, Brownsyne; McKenzie, Fatima; Fadel, William F; Matthias, Marianne S; Salyers, Michelle P; Barnato, Amber E; Frankel, Richard M

2014-12-01

Sociodemographic differences have been observed in the treatment of extremely premature (periviable) neonates, but the source of this variation is not well understood. We assessed the feasibility of using simulation to test the effect of maternal race and insurance status on shared decision making (SDM) in periviable counseling. We conducted a 2 × 2 factorial simulation experiment in which obstetricians and neonatologists counseled 2 consecutive standardized patients diagnosed with ruptured membranes at 23 weeks, counterbalancing race (black/white) and insurance status using random permutation. We assessed verisimilitude of the simulation in semistructured debriefing interviews. We coded physician communication related to resuscitation, mode of delivery, and steroid decisions using a 9-point SDM coding framework and then compared communication scores by standardized patient race and insurer using analysis of variance. Sixteen obstetricians and 15 neonatologists participated; 71% were women, 84% were married, and 75% were parents; 91% of the physicians rated the simulation as highly realistic. Overall, SDM scores were relatively high, with means ranging from 6.4 to 7.9 (of 9). There was a statistically significant interaction between race and insurer for SDM related to steroid use and mode of delivery (P < 0.01 and P = 0.01, respectively). Between-group comparison revealed nonsignificant differences (P = <0.10) between the SDM scores for privately insured black patients versus privately insured white patients, Medicaid-insured white patients versus Medicaid-insured black patients, and privately insured black patients versus Medicaid-insured black patients. This study confirms that simulation is a feasible method for studying sociodemographic effects on periviable counseling. Shared decision making may occur differentially based on patients' sociodemographic characteristics and deserves further study.

Simulations in the Consumer Economics Classroom. Consumer Education Training Module.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kachaturoff, Grace

This inservice manual provides guidelines to help elementary, secondary, and adult education teachers select, use, and design simulation experiences for consumer education. Four example simulations provide students with opportunities to develop decision-making skills as consumers. Simulations may be used as an introductory, developmental, or…

Choosing a Site.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Intercom, 1985

1985-01-01

In this simulation, which involves the location of a low-income housing project, secondary students simulate eight roles--citizens representing the interests of seven different neighborhoods and a federal arbiter. Skills developed by the simulation include analysis, decision making, and oral and written communication. (RM)

Knowledge mobilisation for policy development: implementing systems approaches through participatory dynamic simulation modelling.

PubMed

Freebairn, Louise; Rychetnik, Lucie; Atkinson, Jo-An; Kelly, Paul; McDonnell, Geoff; Roberts, Nick; Whittall, Christine; Redman, Sally

2017-10-02

Evidence-based decision-making is an important foundation for health policy and service planning decisions, yet there remain challenges in ensuring that the many forms of available evidence are considered when decisions are being made. Mobilising knowledge for policy and practice is an emergent process, and one that is highly relational, often messy and profoundly context dependent. Systems approaches, such as dynamic simulation modelling can be used to examine both complex health issues and the context in which they are embedded, and to develop decision support tools. This paper reports on the novel use of participatory simulation modelling as a knowledge mobilisation tool in Australian real-world policy settings. We describe how this approach combined systems science methodology and some of the core elements of knowledge mobilisation best practice. We describe the strategies adopted in three case studies to address both technical and socio-political issues, and compile the experiential lessons derived. Finally, we consider the implications of these knowledge mobilisation case studies and provide evidence for the feasibility of this approach in policy development settings. Participatory dynamic simulation modelling builds on contemporary knowledge mobilisation approaches for health stakeholders to collaborate and explore policy and health service scenarios for priority public health topics. The participatory methods place the decision-maker at the centre of the process and embed deliberative methods and co-production of knowledge. The simulation models function as health policy and programme dynamic decision support tools that integrate diverse forms of evidence, including research evidence, expert knowledge and localised contextual information. Further research is underway to determine the impact of these methods on health service decision-making.

Simulated Order Verification and Medication Reconciliation during an Introductory Pharmacy Practice Experience.

PubMed

Metzger, Nicole L; Chesson, Melissa M; Momary, Kathryn M

2015-09-25

Objective. To create, implement, and assess a simulated medication reconciliation and an order verification activity using hospital training software. Design. A simulated patient with medication orders and home medications was built into existing hospital training software. Students in an institutional introductory pharmacy practice experience (IPPE) reconciled the patient's medications and determined whether or not to verify the inpatient orders based on his medical history and laboratory data. After reconciliation, students identified medication discrepancies and documented their rationale for rejecting inpatient orders. Assessment. For a 3-year period, the majority of students agreed the simulation enhanced their learning, taught valuable clinical decision-making skills, integrated material from previous courses, and stimulated their interest in institutional pharmacy. Overall feedback from student evaluations about the IPPE also was favorable. Conclusion. Use of existing hospital training software can affordably simulate the pharmacist's role in order verification and medication reconciliation, as well as improve clinical decision-making.

Discovering mental models and frames in learning of nursing ethics through simulations.

PubMed

Díaz Agea, J L; Martín Robles, M R; Jiménez Rodríguez, D; Morales Moreno, I; Viedma Viedma, I; Leal Costa, C

2018-05-15

The acquisition of ethical competence is necessary in nursing. The aims of the study were to analyse students' perceptions of the process of learning ethics through simulations and to describe the underlying frames that inform the decision making process of nursing students. A qualitative study based on the analysis of simulated experiences and debriefings of six simulated scenarios with ethical content in three different groups of fourth-year nursing students (n = 30), was performed. The simulated situations were designed to contain ethical dilemmas. The students' perspective regarding their learning and acquisition of ethical competence through simulations was positive. A total of 15 mental models were identified that underlie the ethical decision making of the students. The student's opinions reinforce the use of simulations as a tool for learning ethics. Thus, the putting into practice the knowledge regarding the frames that guide ethical actions is a suitable pedagogical strategy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-objective optimisation and decision-making of space station logistics strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Yue-he; Luo, Ya-zhong

2016-10-01

Space station logistics strategy optimisation is a complex engineering problem with multiple objectives. Finding a decision-maker-preferred compromise solution becomes more significant when solving such a problem. However, the designer-preferred solution is not easy to determine using the traditional method. Thus, a hybrid approach that combines the multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, physical programming, and differential evolution (DE) algorithm is proposed to deal with the optimisation and decision-making of space station logistics strategies. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm is used to acquire a Pareto frontier and help determine the range parameters of the physical programming. Physical programming is employed to convert the four-objective problem into a single-objective problem, and a DE algorithm is applied to solve the resulting physical programming-based optimisation problem. Five kinds of objective preference are simulated and compared. The simulation results indicate that the proposed approach can produce good compromise solutions corresponding to different decision-makers' preferences.

Aircraft accident investigation: the decision-making in initial action scenario.

PubMed

Barreto, Marcia M; Ribeiro, Selma L O

2012-01-01

In the complex aeronautical environment, the efforts in terms of operational safety involve the adoption of proactive and reactive measures. The process of investigation begins right after the occurrence of the aeronautical accident, through the initial action. Thus, it is in the crisis scenario, that the person responsible for the initial action makes decisions and gathers the necessary information for the subsequent phases of the investigation process. Within this scenario, which is a natural environment, researches have shown the fragility of rational models of decision making. The theoretical perspective of naturalistic decision making constitutes a breakthrough in the understanding of decision problems demanded by real world. The proposal of this study was to verify if the initial action, after the occurrence of an accident, and the decision-making strategies, used by the investigators responsible for this activity, are characteristic of the naturalistic decision making theoretical approach. To attend the proposed objective a descriptive research was undertaken with a sample of professionals that work in this activity. The data collected through individual interviews were analyzed and the results demonstrated that the initial action environment, which includes restricted time, dynamic conditions, the presence of multiple actors, stress and insufficient information is characteristic of the naturalistic decision making. They also demonstrated that, when the investigators make their decisions, they use their experience and the mental simulation, intuition, improvisation, metaphors and analogues cases, as strategies, all of them related to the naturalistic approach of decision making, in order to satisfy the needs of the situation and reach the objectives of the initial action in the accident scenario.

Can streamlined multi-criteria decision analysis be used to implement shared decision making for colorectal cancer screening?

PubMed Central

Dolan, James G.; Boohaker, Emily; Allison, Jeroan; Imperiale, Thomas F.

2013-01-01

Background Current US colorectal cancer screening guidelines that call for shared decision making regarding the choice among several recommended screening options are difficult to implement. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is an established methodology well suited for supporting shared decision making. Our study goal was to determine if a streamlined form of MCDA using rank order based judgments can accurately assess patients’ colorectal cancer screening priorities. Methods We converted priorities for four decision criteria and three sub-criteria regarding colorectal cancer screening obtained from 484 average risk patients using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in a prior study into rank order-based priorities using rank order centroids. We compared the two sets of priorities using Spearman rank correlation and non-parametric Bland-Altman limits of agreement analysis. We assessed the differential impact of using the rank order-based versus the AHP-based priorities on the results of a full MCDA comparing three currently recommended colorectal cancer screening strategies. Generalizability of the results was assessed using Monte Carlo simulation. Results Correlations between the two sets of priorities for the seven criteria ranged from 0.55 to 0.92. The proportions of absolute differences between rank order-based and AHP-based priorities that were more than ± 0.15 ranged from 1% to 16%. Differences in the full MCDA results were minimal and the relative rankings of the three screening options were identical more than 88% of the time. The Monte Carlo simulation results were similar. Conclusion Rank order-based MCDA could be a simple, practical way to guide individual decisions and assess population decision priorities regarding colorectal cancer screening strategies. Additional research is warranted to further explore the use of these methods for promoting shared decision making. PMID:24300851

A Simulation Approach to Decision Making in IT Service Strategy

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

We propose to use simulation modeling to support decision making in IT service strategy scope. Our main contribution is a simulation model that helps service providers analyze the consequences of changes in both the service capacity assigned to their customers and the tendency of service requests received on the fulfillment of a business rule associated with the strategic goal of customer satisfaction. This business rule is set in the SLAs that service provider and its customers agree to, which determine the maximum percentage of service requests that are permitted to be abandoned because they have exceeded the waiting time allowed. To illustrate the use and applications of the model, we include some of the experiments conducted and describe our conclusions. PMID:24790583

Based on a multi-agent system for multi-scale simulation and application of household's LUCC: a case study for Mengcha village, Mizhi county, Shaanxi province.

PubMed

Chen, Hai; Liang, Xiaoying; Li, Rui

2013-01-01

Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) offer a conceptual approach to include multi-actor decision making into models of land use change. Through the simulation based on the MAS, this paper tries to show the application of MAS in the micro scale LUCC, and reveal the transformation mechanism of difference scale. This paper starts with a description of the context of MAS research. Then, it adopts the Nested Spatial Choice (NSC) method to construct the multi-scale LUCC decision-making model. And a case study for Mengcha village, Mizhi County, Shaanxi Province is reported. Finally, the potentials and drawbacks of the following approach is discussed and concluded. From our design and implementation of the MAS in multi-scale model, a number of observations and conclusions can be drawn on the implementation and future research directions. (1) The use of the LUCC decision-making and multi-scale transformation framework provides, according to us, a more realistic modeling of multi-scale decision making process. (2) By using continuous function, rather than discrete function, to construct the decision-making of the households is more realistic to reflect the effect. (3) In this paper, attempts have been made to give a quantitative analysis to research the household interaction. And it provides the premise and foundation for researching the communication and learning among the households. (4) The scale transformation architecture constructed in this paper helps to accumulate theory and experience for the interaction research between the micro land use decision-making and the macro land use landscape pattern. Our future research work will focus on: (1) how to rational use risk aversion principle, and put the rule on rotation between household parcels into model. (2) Exploring the methods aiming at researching the household decision-making over a long period, it allows us to find the bridge between the long-term LUCC data and the short-term household decision-making. (3) Researching the quantitative method and model, especially the scenario analysis model which may reflect the interaction among different household types.

Interactive Simulated Patient: Experiences with Collaborative E-Learning in Medicine

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bergin, Rolf; Youngblood, Patricia; Ayers, Mary K.; Boberg, Jonas; Bolander, Klara; Courteille, Olivier; Dev, Parvati; Hindbeck, Hans; Edward, Leonard E., II; Stringer, Jennifer R.; Thalme, Anders; Fors, Uno G. H.

2003-01-01

Interactive Simulated Patient (ISP) is a computer-based simulation tool designed to provide medical students with the opportunity to practice their clinical problem solving skills. The ISP system allows students to perform most clinical decision-making procedures in a simulated environment, including history taking in natural language, many…

Simulation in Sport Finance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Drayer, Joris; Rascher, Dan

2010-01-01

Simulations have long been used in business schools to give students experience making real-world decisions in a relatively low risk environment. The OAKLAND A'S BASEBALL BUSINESS SIMULATOR takes a traditional business simulation and applies it to the sport industry, in which sales of tangible products are replaced by sales of experiences provided…

A simple threshold rule is sufficient to explain sophisticated collective decision-making.

PubMed

Robinson, Elva J H; Franks, Nigel R; Ellis, Samuel; Okuda, Saki; Marshall, James A R

2011-01-01

Decision-making animals can use slow-but-accurate strategies, such as making multiple comparisons, or opt for simpler, faster strategies to find a 'good enough' option. Social animals make collective decisions about many group behaviours including foraging and migration. The key to the collective choice lies with individual behaviour. We present a case study of a collective decision-making process (house-hunting ants, Temnothorax albipennis), in which a previously proposed decision strategy involved both quality-dependent hesitancy and direct comparisons of nests by scouts. An alternative possible decision strategy is that scouting ants use a very simple quality-dependent threshold rule to decide whether to recruit nest-mates to a new site or search for alternatives. We use analytical and simulation modelling to demonstrate that this simple rule is sufficient to explain empirical patterns from three studies of collective decision-making in ants, and can account parsimoniously for apparent comparison by individuals and apparent hesitancy (recruitment latency) effects, when available nests differ strongly in quality. This highlights the need to carefully design experiments to detect individual comparison. We present empirical data strongly suggesting that best-of-n comparison is not used by individual ants, although individual sequential comparisons are not ruled out. However, by using a simple threshold rule, decision-making groups are able to effectively compare options, without relying on any form of direct comparison of alternatives by individuals. This parsimonious mechanism could promote collective rationality in group decision-making.

The Use of Simulation and Cases to Teach Real World Decision Making: Applied Example for Health Care Management Graduate Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eisenhardt, Alyson; Ninassi, Susanne Bruno

2016-01-01

Many pedagogy experts suggest the use of real world scenarios and simulations as a means of teaching students to apply decision analysis concepts to their field of study. These methods allow students an opportunity to synthesize knowledge, skills, and abilities by presenting a field-based dilemma. The use of real world scenarios and simulations…

Crisis on Mars: Classroom Energy Simulation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pribble, Donald A.

1979-01-01

Described in this article is an energy conservation simulation game in which students participate in a space mission to Mars. Activities such as decision making, valuing, and problem solving occur during the game. (SA)

Naturalistic Decision Making For Power System Operators

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greitzer, Frank L.; Podmore, Robin; Robinson, Marck

2009-06-23

Abstract: Motivation -- As indicated by the Blackout of 2003, the North American interconnected electric system is vulnerable to cascading outages and widespread blackouts. Investigations of large scale outages often attribute the causes to the three T’s: Trees, Training and Tools. A systematic approach has been developed to document and understand the mental processes that an expert power system operator uses when making critical decisions. The approach has been developed and refined as part of a capability demonstration of a high-fidelity real-time power system simulator under normal and emergency conditions. To examine naturalistic decision making (NDM) processes, transcripts of operator-to-operatormore » conversations are analyzed to reveal and assess NDM-based performance criteria. Findings/Design -- The results of the study indicate that we can map the Situation Awareness Level of the operators at each point in the scenario. We can also identify clearly what mental models and mental simulations are being performed at different points in the scenario. As a result of this research we expect that we can identify improved training methods and improved analytical and visualization tools for power system operators. Originality/Value -- The research applies for the first time, the concepts of Recognition Primed Decision Making, Situation Awareness Levels and Cognitive Task Analysis to training of electric power system operators. Take away message -- The NDM approach provides an ideal framework for systematic training management and mitigation to accelerate learning in team-based training scenarios with high-fidelity power grid simulators.« less

How the win-lose balance situation affects subsequent decision-making: functional magnetic resonance imaging evidence from a gambling task.

PubMed

Dong, G; Lin, X; Zhou, H; Lu, Q

2014-07-11

Humans have been consistently shown to be bad at making decisions, especially in disadvantageous situations. In this study, we designed a task that simulates real-life non-strategic gambling to examine the effect of win-lose balance situations (WIN, LOSS, TIE) on decision-making. In behavioral performances, participants showed shorter response time (RT) in LOSS than in WIN and TIE conditions. Imaging results revealed that decisions in WIN are associated with increased brain activations in the posterior cingulate cortex; decisions in LOSS are associated with increased brain activations in the insula and decreased activations in the inferior frontal gyrus (IFG). Positive correlation was found between brain activation in IFG and RT in LOSS. Overall, we concluded that, in disadvantageous conditions, participants are frustrated by their negative results and tend to make a random selection without full consideration. In advantageous conditions, participants' motivations to gamble are elicited and they tend to engage in more endeavors in making decisions. Copyright © 2014 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Research on the decision-making model of land-use spatial optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Jianhua; Yu, Yan; Liu, Yanfang; Liang, Fei; Cai, Yuqiu

2009-10-01

Using the optimization result of landscape pattern and land use structure optimization as constraints of CA simulation results, a decision-making model of land use spatial optimization is established coupled the landscape pattern model with cellular automata to realize the land use quantitative and spatial optimization simultaneously. And Huangpi district is taken as a case study to verify the rationality of the model.

Critical multi-level governance issues of integrated modelling: An example of low-water management in the Adour-Garonne basin (France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzega, Pierre; Therond, Olivier; Debril, Thomas; March, Hug; Sibertin-Blanc, Christophe; Lardy, Romain; Sant'ana, Daniel

2014-11-01

This paper presents the experience gained related to the development of an integrated simulation model of water policy. Within this context, we analyze particular difficulties raised by the inclusion of multi-level governance that assigns the responsibility of individual or collective decision-making to a variety of actors, regarding measures of which the implementation has significant effects toward the sustainability of socio-hydrosystems. Multi-level governance procedures are compared with the potential of model-based impact assessment. Our discussion is illustrated on the basis of the exploitation of the multi-agent platform MAELIA dedicated to the simulation of social, economic and environmental impacts of low-water management in a context of climate and regulatory changes. We focus on three major decision-making processes occurring in the Adour-Garonne basin, France: (i) the participatory development of the Master Scheme for Water Planning and Management (SDAGE) under the auspices of the Water Agency; (ii) the publication of water use restrictions in situations of water scarcity; and (iii) the determination of the abstraction volumes for irrigation and their allocation. The MAELIA platform explicitly takes into account the mode of decision-making when it is framed by a procedure set beforehand, focusing on the actors' participation and on the nature and parameters of the measures to be implemented. It is observed that in some water organizations decision-making follows patterns that can be represented as rule-based actions triggered by thresholds of resource states. When decisions are resulting from individual choice, endowing virtual agents with bounded rationality allows us to reproduce (in silico) their behavior and decisions in a reliable way. However, the negotiation processes taking place during the period of time simulated by the models in arenas of collective choices are not all reproducible. Outcomes of some collective decisions are very little or not at all predictable. The development and simulation of a priori policy scenarios capturing the most plausible or interesting outcomes of such collective decisions on measures for low-water management allows these difficulties to be overcome. The building of these kind of scenarios requires close collaboration between researchers and stakeholders involved in arenas of collective choice, and implies the integration of the production of model and the analysis of scenarios as one component of the polycentric political process of water management.

Teachers' Decisions about Mathematics Tasks When Planning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sullivan, Peter; Clarke, David; Clarke, Doug; Roche, Anne

2013-01-01

At some stage when planning, teachers make decisions about the mathematics tasks they will pose and how they will structure lessons. It seems, though, that these decisions are complex, and that this complexity has been underestimated by curriculum developers and teacher educators. The following is a report of data collection that simulated some of…

Accepting uncertainty, assessing risk: decision quality in managing wildfire, forest resource values, and new technology

Treesearch

Jeffrey G. Borchers

2005-01-01

The risks, uncertainties, and social conflicts surrounding uncharacteristic wildfire and forest resource values have defied conventional approaches to planning and decision-making. Paradoxically, the adoption of technological innovations such as risk assessment, decision analysis, and landscape simulation models by land management organizations has been limited. The...

Decision Making in Action

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relations between leadership, communication, decision making and overall crew performance. Implications of these findings for spaceflight and training for offshore installations will be discussed.

Decision Making in Action: Applying Research to Practice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relations between leadership, communication, decision making and overall crew performance. Implications of these findings for spaceflight and training for offshore installations will be discussed.

Optimal decision making modeling for copper-matte Peirce-Smith converting process by means of data mining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Yanpo; Peng, Xiaoqi; Tang, Ying; Hu, Zhikun

2013-07-01

To improve the operation level of copper converter, the approach to optimal decision making modeling for coppermatte converting process based on data mining is studied: in view of the characteristics of the process data, such as containing noise, small sample size and so on, a new robust improved ANN (artificial neural network) modeling method is proposed; taking into account the application purpose of decision making model, three new evaluation indexes named support, confidence and relative confidence are proposed; using real production data and the methods mentioned above, optimal decision making model for blowing time of S1 period (the 1st slag producing period) are developed. Simulation results show that this model can significantly improve the converting quality of S1 period, increase the optimal probability from about 70% to about 85%.

Some Results of Weak Anticipative Concept Applied in Simulation Based Decision Support in Enterprise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kljajić, Miroljub; Kofjač, Davorin; Kljajić Borštnar, Mirjana; Škraba, Andrej

2010-11-01

The simulation models are used as for decision support and learning in enterprises and in schools. Tree cases of successful applications demonstrate usefulness of weak anticipative information. Job shop scheduling production with makespan criterion presents a real case customized flexible furniture production optimization. The genetic algorithm for job shop scheduling optimization is presented. Simulation based inventory control for products with stochastic lead time and demand describes inventory optimization for products with stochastic lead time and demand. Dynamic programming and fuzzy control algorithms reduce the total cost without producing stock-outs in most cases. Values of decision making information based on simulation were discussed too. All two cases will be discussed from optimization, modeling and learning point of view.

Conceptualizing intragroup and intergroup dynamics within a controlled crowd evacuation.

PubMed

Elzie, Terra; Frydenlund, Erika; Collins, Andrew J; Robinson, R Michael

2015-01-01

Social dynamics play a critical role in successful pedestrian evacuations. Crowd modeling research has made progress in capturing the way individual and group dynamics affect evacuations; however, few studies have simultaneously examined how individuals and groups interact with one another during egress. To address this gap, the researchers present a conceptual agent-based model (ABM) designed to study the ways in which autonomous, heterogeneous, decision-making individuals negotiate intragroup and intergroup behavior while exiting a large venue. A key feature of this proposed model is the examination of the dynamics among and between various groupings, where heterogeneity at the individual level dynamically affects group behavior and subsequently group/group interactions. ABM provides a means of representing the important social factors that affect decision making among diverse social groups. Expanding on the 2013 work of Vizzari et al., the researchers focus specifically on social factors and decision making at the individual/group and group/group levels to more realistically portray dynamic crowd systems during a pedestrian evacuation. By developing a model with individual, intragroup, and intergroup interactions, the ABM provides a more representative approximation of real-world crowd egress. The simulation will enable more informed planning by disaster managers, emergency planners, and other decision makers. This pedestrian behavioral concept is one piece of a larger simulation model. Future research will build toward an integrated model capturing decision-making interactions between pedestrians and vehicles that affect evacuation outcomes.

An Agent-Based Model of Farmer Decision Making in Jordan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selby, Philip; Medellin-Azuara, Josue; Harou, Julien; Klassert, Christian; Yoon, Jim

2016-04-01

We describe an agent based hydro-economic model of groundwater irrigated agriculture in the Jordan Highlands. The model employs a Multi-Agent-Simulation (MAS) framework and is designed to evaluate direct and indirect outcomes of climate change scenarios and policy interventions on farmer decision making, including annual land use, groundwater use for irrigation, and water sales to a water tanker market. Land use and water use decisions are simulated for groups of farms grouped by location and their behavioural and economic similarities. Decreasing groundwater levels, and the associated increase in pumping costs, are important drivers for change within Jordan'S agricultural sector. We describe how this is considered by coupling of agricultural and groundwater models. The agricultural production model employs Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP), a method for calibrating agricultural production functions to observed planted areas. PMP has successfully been used with disaggregate models for policy analysis. We adapt the PMP approach to allow explicit evaluation of the impact of pumping costs, groundwater purchase fees and a water tanker market. The work demonstrates the applicability of agent-based agricultural decision making assessment in the Jordan Highlands and its integration with agricultural model calibration methods. The proposed approach is designed and implemented with software such that it could be used to evaluate a variety of physical and human influences on decision making in agricultural water management.

MINEXP, A Computer-Simulated Mineral Exploration Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Michael J.; And Others

1978-01-01

This computer simulation is designed to put students into a realistic decision making situation in mineral exploration. This program can be used with different exploration situations such as ore deposits, petroleum, ground water, etc. (MR)

Contrasting models of driver behaviour in emergencies using retrospective verbalisations and network analysis.

PubMed

Banks, Victoria A; Stanton, Neville A

2015-01-01

Automated assistance in driving emergencies aims to improve the safety of our roads by avoiding or mitigating the effects of accidents. However, the behavioural implications of such systems remain unknown. This paper introduces the driver decision-making in emergencies (DDMiEs) framework to investigate how the level and type of automation may affect driver decision-making and subsequent responses to critical braking events using network analysis to interrogate retrospective verbalisations. Four DDMiE models were constructed to represent different levels of automation within the driving task and its effects on driver decision-making. Findings suggest that whilst automation does not alter the decision-making pathway (e.g. the processes between hazard detection and response remain similar), it does appear to significantly weaken the links between information-processing nodes. This reflects an unintended yet emergent property within the task network that could mean that we may not be improving safety in the way we expect. This paper contrasts models of driver decision-making in emergencies at varying levels of automation using the Southampton University Driving Simulator. Network analysis of retrospective verbalisations indicates that increasing the level of automation in driving emergencies weakens the link between information-processing nodes essential for effective decision-making.

Goal-directed decision making as probabilistic inference: A computational framework and potential neural correlates

PubMed Central

Solway, A.; Botvinick, M.

2013-01-01

Recent work has given rise to the view that reward-based decision making is governed by two key controllers: a habit system, which stores stimulus-response associations shaped by past reward, and a goal-oriented system that selects actions based on their anticipated outcomes. The current literature provides a rich body of computational theory addressing habit formation, centering on temporal-difference learning mechanisms. Less progress has been made toward formalizing the processes involved in goal-directed decision making. We draw on recent work in cognitive neuroscience, animal conditioning, cognitive and developmental psychology and machine learning, to outline a new theory of goal-directed decision making. Our basic proposal is that the brain, within an identifiable network of cortical and subcortical structures, implements a probabilistic generative model of reward, and that goal-directed decision making is effected through Bayesian inversion of this model. We present a set of simulations implementing the account, which address benchmark behavioral and neuroscientific findings, and which give rise to a set of testable predictions. We also discuss the relationship between the proposed framework and other models of decision making, including recent models of perceptual choice, to which our theory bears a direct connection. PMID:22229491

Changes of mind in an attractor network of decision-making.

PubMed

Albantakis, Larissa; Deco, Gustavo

2011-06-01

Attractor networks successfully account for psychophysical and neurophysiological data in various decision-making tasks. Especially their ability to model persistent activity, a property of many neurons involved in decision-making, distinguishes them from other approaches. Stable decision attractors are, however, counterintuitive to changes of mind. Here we demonstrate that a biophysically-realistic attractor network with spiking neurons, in its itinerant transients towards the choice attractors, can replicate changes of mind observed recently during a two-alternative random-dot motion (RDM) task. Based on the assumption that the brain continues to evaluate available evidence after the initiation of a decision, the network predicts neural activity during changes of mind and accurately simulates reaction times, performance and percentage of changes dependent on difficulty. Moreover, the model suggests a low decision threshold and high incoming activity that drives the brain region involved in the decision-making process into a dynamical regime close to a bifurcation, which up to now lacked evidence for physiological relevance. Thereby, we further affirmed the general conformance of attractor networks with higher level neural processes and offer experimental predictions to distinguish nonlinear attractor from linear diffusion models.

Uncertainty analysis for effluent trading planning using a Bayesian estimation-based simulation-optimization modeling approach.

PubMed

Zhang, J L; Li, Y P; Huang, G H; Baetz, B W; Liu, J

2017-06-01

In this study, a Bayesian estimation-based simulation-optimization modeling approach (BESMA) is developed for identifying effluent trading strategies. BESMA incorporates nutrient fate modeling with soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), Bayesian estimation, and probabilistic-possibilistic interval programming with fuzzy random coefficients (PPI-FRC) within a general framework. Based on the water quality protocols provided by SWAT, posterior distributions of parameters can be analyzed through Bayesian estimation; stochastic characteristic of nutrient loading can be investigated which provides the inputs for the decision making. PPI-FRC can address multiple uncertainties in the form of intervals with fuzzy random boundaries and the associated system risk through incorporating the concept of possibility and necessity measures. The possibility and necessity measures are suitable for optimistic and pessimistic decision making, respectively. BESMA is applied to a real case of effluent trading planning in the Xiangxihe watershed, China. A number of decision alternatives can be obtained under different trading ratios and treatment rates. The results can not only facilitate identification of optimal effluent-trading schemes, but also gain insight into the effects of trading ratio and treatment rate on decision making. The results also reveal that decision maker's preference towards risk would affect decision alternatives on trading scheme as well as system benefit. Compared with the conventional optimization methods, it is proved that BESMA is advantageous in (i) dealing with multiple uncertainties associated with randomness and fuzziness in effluent-trading planning within a multi-source, multi-reach and multi-period context; (ii) reflecting uncertainties existing in nutrient transport behaviors to improve the accuracy in water quality prediction; and (iii) supporting pessimistic and optimistic decision making for effluent trading as well as promoting diversity of decision alternatives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

78 FR 24232 - Record of Decision for the Denali Park Road Final Vehicle Management Plan and Environmental...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-24

... the decision making process. ADDRESSES: Copies of the ROD will be available in an electronic format... at the Savage River Check Station. The 160-vehicle limit is derived from traffic model simulation...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Radojcic, Riko; Nowak, Matt; Nakamoto, Mark

The status of the development of a Design-for-Stress simulation flow that captures the stress effects in packaged 3D-stacked Si products like integrated circuits (ICs) using advanced via-middle Through Si Via technology is outlined. The next set of challenges required to proliferate the methodology and to deploy it for making and dispositioning real Si product decisions are described here. These include the adoption and support of a Process Design Kit (PDK) that includes the relevant material properties, the development of stress simulation methodologies that operate at higher levels of abstraction in a design flow, and the development and adoption of suitablemore » models required to make real product reliability decisions.« less

Simulating motivated cognition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gevarter, William B.

1991-01-01

A research effort to develop a sophisticated computer model of human behavior is described. A computer framework of motivated cognition was developed. Motivated cognition focuses on the motivations or affects that provide the context and drive in human cognition and decision making. A conceptual architecture of the human decision-making approach from the perspective of information processing in the human brain is developed in diagrammatic form. A preliminary version of such a diagram is presented. This architecture is then used as a vehicle for successfully constructing a computer program simulation Dweck and Leggett's findings that relate how an individual's implicit theories orient them toward particular goals, with resultant cognitions, affects, and behavior.

Neuromorphic Implementation of Attractor Dynamics in a Two-Variable Winner-Take-All Circuit with NMDARs: A Simulation Study

PubMed Central

You, Hongzhi; Wang, Da-Hui

2017-01-01

Neural networks configured with winner-take-all (WTA) competition and N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR)-mediated synaptic dynamics are endowed with various dynamic characteristics of attractors underlying many cognitive functions. This paper presents a novel method for neuromorphic implementation of a two-variable WTA circuit with NMDARs aimed at implementing decision-making, working memory and hysteresis in visual perceptions. The method proposed is a dynamical system approach of circuit synthesis based on a biophysically plausible WTA model. Notably, slow and non-linear temporal dynamics of NMDAR-mediated synapses was generated. Circuit simulations in Cadence reproduced ramping neural activities observed in electrophysiological recordings in experiments of decision-making, the sustained activities observed in the prefrontal cortex during working memory, and classical hysteresis behavior during visual discrimination tasks. Furthermore, theoretical analysis of the dynamical system approach illuminated the underlying mechanisms of decision-making, memory capacity and hysteresis loops. The consistence between the circuit simulations and theoretical analysis demonstrated that the WTA circuit with NMDARs was able to capture the attractor dynamics underlying these cognitive functions. Their physical implementations as elementary modules are promising for assembly into integrated neuromorphic cognitive systems. PMID:28223913

Neuromorphic Implementation of Attractor Dynamics in a Two-Variable Winner-Take-All Circuit with NMDARs: A Simulation Study.

PubMed

You, Hongzhi; Wang, Da-Hui

2017-01-01

Neural networks configured with winner-take-all (WTA) competition and N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR)-mediated synaptic dynamics are endowed with various dynamic characteristics of attractors underlying many cognitive functions. This paper presents a novel method for neuromorphic implementation of a two-variable WTA circuit with NMDARs aimed at implementing decision-making, working memory and hysteresis in visual perceptions. The method proposed is a dynamical system approach of circuit synthesis based on a biophysically plausible WTA model. Notably, slow and non-linear temporal dynamics of NMDAR-mediated synapses was generated. Circuit simulations in Cadence reproduced ramping neural activities observed in electrophysiological recordings in experiments of decision-making, the sustained activities observed in the prefrontal cortex during working memory, and classical hysteresis behavior during visual discrimination tasks. Furthermore, theoretical analysis of the dynamical system approach illuminated the underlying mechanisms of decision-making, memory capacity and hysteresis loops. The consistence between the circuit simulations and theoretical analysis demonstrated that the WTA circuit with NMDARs was able to capture the attractor dynamics underlying these cognitive functions. Their physical implementations as elementary modules are promising for assembly into integrated neuromorphic cognitive systems.

A Simulation Game for an Introductory Course in International Business

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGuinness, Michael J.

2004-01-01

An international business simulation game designed for an introductory International Business course. The simulation game allows for student decision making and allows for the ready introduction of many topics which are covered in an International Business course. The simulation game has continued to be improved with student suggestions and has…

Understanding older adults' medication decision making and behavior: A study on over-the-counter (OTC) anticholinergic medications.

PubMed

Holden, Richard J; Srinivas, Preethi; Campbell, Noll L; Clark, Daniel O; Bodke, Kunal S; Hong, Youngbok; Boustani, Malaz A; Ferguson, Denisha; Callahan, Christopher M

2018-03-06

Older adults purchase and use over-the-counter (OTC) medications with potentially significant adverse effects. Some OTC medications, such as those with anticholinergic effects, are relatively contraindicated for use by older adults due to evidence of impaired cognition and other adverse effects. To inform the design of future OTC medication safety interventions for older adults, this study investigated consumers' decision making and behavior related to OTC medication purchasing and use, with a focus on OTC anticholinergic medications. The study had a cross-sectional design with multiple methods. A total of 84 adults participated in qualitative research interviews (n = 24), in-store shopper observations (n = 39), and laboratory-based simulated OTC shopping tasks (n = 21). Simulated shopping participants also rank-ordered eight factors on their importance for OTC decision making. Findings revealed that many participants had concerns about medication adverse effects, generally, but were not aware of age-related risk associated with the use of anticholinergic medications. Analyses produced a map of the workflow of OTC-related behavior and decision making as well as related barriers such as difficulty locating medications or comparing them to an alternative. Participants reported effectiveness, adverse effects or health risks, and price as most important to their OTC medication purchase and use decisions. A persona analysis identified two types of consumers: the habit follower, who frequently purchased OTC medications and considered them safe; and the deliberator, who was more likely to weigh their options and consider alternatives to OTC medications. A conceptual model of OTC medication purchase and use is presented. Drawing on study findings and behavioral theories, the model depicts dual processes for OTC medication decision making - habit-based and deliberation-based - as well as the antecedents and consequences of decision making. This model suggests several design directions for consumer-oriented interventions to promote OTC medication safety. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding the Marketplace: A Simulation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vickers, Carole A.

1978-01-01

Describes a marketplace simulation game to help students understand the role of competition and the rationale behind buying and selling food and restaurant services. Cutouts (given in the article) are used to simulate elements in the game. Emphasis is on making decisions in business operation and consumer purchases. (MF)

The Chinese House Game.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, James R.

1989-01-01

Discussion of the use of simulations to teach international relations (IR) highlights the Chinese House Game, a computer-based decision-making game based on Inter Nation Simulation (INS). Topics discussed include the increasing role of artificial intelligence in IR simulations, multi-disciplinary approaches, and the direction of IR as a…

Microprocessor Simulation: A Training Technique.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oscarson, David J.

1982-01-01

Describes the design and application of a microprocessor simulation using BASIC for formal training of technicians and managers and as a management tool. Illustrates the utility of the modular approach for the instruction and practice of decision-making techniques. (SK)

Constructive Engineering of Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Snyder, Daniel R.; Barsness, Brendan

2011-01-01

Joint experimentation that investigates sensor optimization, re-tasking and management has far reaching implications for Department of Defense, Interagency and multinational partners. An adaption of traditional human in the loop (HITL) Modeling and Simulation (M&S) was one approach used to generate the findings necessary to derive and support these implications. Here an entity-based simulation was re-engineered to run on USJFCOM's High Performance Computer (HPC). The HPC was used to support the vast number of constructive runs necessary to produce statistically significant data in a timely manner. Then from the resulting sensitivity analysis, event designers blended the necessary visualization and decision making components into a synthetic environment for the HITL simulations trials. These trials focused on areas where human decision making had the greatest impact on the sensor investigations. Thus, this paper discusses how re-engineering existing M&S for constructive applications can positively influence the design of an associated HITL experiment.

STANFORD ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE PROJECT.

DTIC Science & Technology

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE , GAME THEORY, DECISION MAKING, BIONICS, AUTOMATA, SPEECH RECOGNITION, GEOMETRIC FORMS, LEARNING MACHINES, MATHEMATICAL MODELS, PATTERN RECOGNITION, SERVOMECHANISMS, SIMULATION, BIBLIOGRAPHIES.

Investigating a self-scoring interview simulation for learning and assessment in the medical consultation.

PubMed

Bruen, Catherine; Kreiter, Clarence; Wade, Vincent; Pawlikowska, Teresa

2017-01-01

Experience with simulated patients supports undergraduate learning of medical consultation skills. Adaptive simulations are being introduced into this environment. The authors investigate whether it can underpin valid and reliable assessment by conducting a generalizability analysis using IT data analytics from the interaction of medical students (in psychiatry) with adaptive simulations to explore the feasibility of adaptive simulations for supporting automated learning and assessment. The generalizability (G) study was focused on two clinically relevant variables: clinical decision points and communication skills. While the G study on the communication skills score yielded low levels of true score variance, the results produced by the decision points, indicating clinical decision-making and confirming user knowledge of the process of the Calgary-Cambridge model of consultation, produced reliability levels similar to what might be expected with rater-based scoring. The findings indicate that adaptive simulations have potential as a teaching and assessment tool for medical consultations.

Exploring the clinical decision-making used by experienced cardiorespiratory physiotherapists: A mixed method qualitative design of simulation, video recording and think aloud techniques.

PubMed

Thackray, Debbie; Roberts, Lisa

2017-02-01

The ability of physiotherapists to make clinical decisions is a vital component of being an autonomous practitioner, yet this complex phenomenon has been under-researched in cardiorespiratory physiotherapy. The purpose of this study was to explore clinical decision-making (CDM) by experienced physiotherapists in a scenario of a simulated patient experiencing acute deterioration of their respiratory function. The main objective of this observational study was to identify the actions, thoughts, and behaviours used by experienced cardiorespiratory physiotherapists in their clinical decision-making processes. A mixed-methods (qualitative) design employing observation and think-aloud, was adopted using a computerised manikin in a simulated environment. The participants clinically assessed the manikin programmed with the same clinical signs, under standardised conditions in the clinical skills practice suite, which was set up as a ward environment. Experienced cardiorespiratory physiotherapists, recruited from clinical practice within a 50-mile radius of the University(*). Participants were video-recorded throughout the assessment and treatment and asked to verbalise their thought processes using the 'think-aloud' method. The recordings were transcribed verbatim and managed using a Framework approach. Eight cardiorespiratory physiotherapists participated (mean 7years clinical experience, range 3.5-16years. CDM was similar to the collaborative hypothetico-deductive model, five-rights nursing model, reasoning strategies, inductive reasoning and pattern recognition. However, the CDM demonstrated by the physiotherapists was complex, interactive and iterative. Information processing occurred continuously throughout the whole interaction with the patient, and the specific cognitive skills of recognition, matching, discriminating, relating, inferring, synthesising and prediction were identified as being used sequentially. The findings from this study were used to develop a new conceptual model of clinical decision-making for cardiorespiratory physiotherapy. This conceptual model can be used to inform future educational strategies to prepare physiotherapists and nurses for working in acute respiratory care. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decision blocks: A tool for automating decision making in CLIPS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eick, Christoph F.; Mehta, Nikhil N.

1991-01-01

The human capability of making complex decision is one of the most fascinating facets of human intelligence, especially if vague, judgemental, default or uncertain knowledge is involved. Unfortunately, most existing rule based forward chaining languages are not very suitable to simulate this aspect of human intelligence, because of their lack of support for approximate reasoning techniques needed for this task, and due to the lack of specific constructs to facilitate the coding of frequently reoccurring decision block to provide better support for the design and implementation of rule based decision support systems. A language called BIRBAL, which is defined on the top of CLIPS, for the specification of decision blocks, is introduced. Empirical experiments involving the comparison of the length of CLIPS program with the corresponding BIRBAL program for three different applications are surveyed. The results of these experiments suggest that for decision making intensive applications, a CLIPS program tends to be about three times longer than the corresponding BIRBAL program.

Capturing a Commander's decision making style

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, Eugene; Nguyen, Hien; Russell, Jacob; Kim, Keumjoo; Veenhuis, Luke; Boparai, Ramnjit; Stautland, Thomas Kristoffer

2017-05-01

A Commander's decision making style represents how he weighs his choices and evaluates possible solutions with regards to his goals. Specifically, in the naval warfare domain, it relates the way he processes a large amount of information in dynamic, uncertain environments, allocates resources, and chooses appropriate actions to pursue. In this paper, we describe an approach to capture a Commander's decision style by creating a cognitive model that captures his decisionmaking process and evaluate this model using a set of scenarios using an online naval warfare simulation game. In this model, we use the Commander's past behaviors and generalize Commander's actions across multiple problems and multiple decision making sequences in order to recommend actions to a Commander in a manner that he may have taken. Our approach builds upon the Double Transition Model to represent the Commander's focus and beliefs to estimate his cognitive state. Each cognitive state reflects a stage in a Commander's decision making process, each action reflects the tasks that he has taken to move himself closer to a final decision, and the reward reflects how close he is to achieving his goal. We then use inverse reinforcement learning to compute a reward for each of the Commander's actions. These rewards and cognitive states are used to compare between different styles of decision making. We construct a set of scenarios in the game where rational, intuitive and spontaneous decision making styles will be evaluated.

Integrated modelling of stormwater treatment systems uptake.

PubMed

Castonguay, A C; Iftekhar, M S; Urich, C; Bach, P M; Deletic, A

2018-05-24

Nature-based solutions provide a variety of benefits in growing cities, ranging from stormwater treatment to amenity provision such as aesthetics. However, the decision-making process involved in the installation of such green infrastructure is not straightforward, as much uncertainty around the location, size, costs and benefits impedes systematic decision-making. We developed a model to simulate decision rules used by local municipalities to install nature-based stormwater treatment systems, namely constructed wetlands, ponds/basins and raingardens. The model was used to test twenty-four scenarios of policy-making, by combining four asset selection, two location selection and three budget constraint decision rules. Based on the case study of a local municipality in Metropolitan Melbourne, Australia, the modelled uptake of stormwater treatment systems was compared with attributes of real-world systems for the simulation period. Results show that the actual budgeted funding is not reliable to predict systems' uptake and that policy-makers are more likely to plan expenditures based on installation costs. The model was able to replicate the cumulative treatment capacity and the location of systems. As such, it offers a novel approach to investigate the impact of using different decision rules to provide environmental services considering biophysical and economic factors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of flight planning in aircrew decision performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pepitone, Dave; King, Teresa; Murphy, Miles

1989-01-01

The role of flight planning in increasing the safety and decision-making performance of the air transport crews was investigated in a study that involved 48 rated airline crewmembers on a B720 simulator with a model-board-based visual scene and motion cues with three degrees of freedom. The safety performance of the crews was evaluated using videotaped replays of the flight. Based on these evaluations, the crews could be divided into high- and low-safety groups. It was found that, while collecting information before flights, the high-safety crews were more concerned with information about alternative airports, especially the fuel required to get there, and were characterized by making rapid and appropriate decisions during the emergency part of the flight scenario, allowing these crews to make an early diversion to other airports. These results suggest that contingency planning that takes into account alternative courses of action enhances rapid and accurate decision-making under time pressure.

Scalable methodology for large scale building energy improvement: Relevance of calibration in model-based retrofit analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heo, Yeonsook; Augenbroe, Godfried; Graziano, Diane

2015-05-01

The increasing interest in retrofitting of existing buildings is motivated by the need to make a major contribution to enhancing building energy efficiency and reducing energy consumption and CO2 emission by the built environment. This paper examines the relevance of calibration in model-based analysis to support decision-making for energy and carbon efficiency retrofits of individual buildings and portfolios of buildings. The authors formulate a set of real retrofit decision-making situations and evaluate the role of calibration by using a case study that compares predictions and decisions from an uncalibrated model with those of a calibrated model. The case study illustratesmore » both the mechanics and outcomes of a practical alternative to the expert- and time-intense application of dynamic energy simulation models for large-scale retrofit decision-making under uncertainty.« less

Cortical topography of intracortical inhibition influences the speed of decision making.

PubMed

Wilimzig, Claudia; Ragert, Patrick; Dinse, Hubert R

2012-02-21

The neocortex contains orderly topographic maps; however, their functional role remains controversial. Theoretical studies have suggested a role in minimizing computational costs, whereas empirical studies have focused on spatial localization. Using a tactile multiple-choice reaction time (RT) task before and after the induction of perceptual learning through repetitive sensory stimulation, we extend the framework of cortical topographies by demonstrating that the topographic arrangement of intracortical inhibition contributes to the speed of human perceptual decision-making processes. RTs differ among fingers, displaying an inverted U-shaped function. Simulations using neural fields show the inverted U-shaped RT distribution as an emergent consequence of lateral inhibition. Weakening inhibition through learning shortens RTs, which is modeled through topographically reorganized inhibition. Whereas changes in decision making are often regarded as an outcome of higher cortical areas, our data show that the spatial layout of interaction processes within representational maps contributes to selection and decision-making processes.

Cortical topography of intracortical inhibition influences the speed of decision making

PubMed Central

Wilimzig, Claudia; Ragert, Patrick; Dinse, Hubert R.

2012-01-01

The neocortex contains orderly topographic maps; however, their functional role remains controversial. Theoretical studies have suggested a role in minimizing computational costs, whereas empirical studies have focused on spatial localization. Using a tactile multiple-choice reaction time (RT) task before and after the induction of perceptual learning through repetitive sensory stimulation, we extend the framework of cortical topographies by demonstrating that the topographic arrangement of intracortical inhibition contributes to the speed of human perceptual decision-making processes. RTs differ among fingers, displaying an inverted U-shaped function. Simulations using neural fields show the inverted U-shaped RT distribution as an emergent consequence of lateral inhibition. Weakening inhibition through learning shortens RTs, which is modeled through topographically reorganized inhibition. Whereas changes in decision making are often regarded as an outcome of higher cortical areas, our data show that the spatial layout of interaction processes within representational maps contributes to selection and decision-making processes. PMID:22315409

The Effect of Screen-to-Screen Versus Face-to-Face Consultation on Doctor-Patient Communication: An Experimental Study with Simulated Patients

PubMed Central

Tates, Kiek; Kanters, Saskia; Nieboer, Theodoor E; Gerritse, Maria BE

2017-01-01

Background Despite the emergence of Web-based patient-provider contact, it is still unclear how the quality of Web-based doctor-patient interactions differs from face-to-face interactions. Objective This study aimed to examine (1) the impact of a consultation medium on doctors’ and patients’ communicative behavior in terms of information exchange, interpersonal relationship building, and shared decision making and (2) the mediating role of doctors’ and patients’ communicative behavior on satisfaction with both types of consultation medium. Methods Doctor-patient consultations on pelvic organ prolapse were simulated, both in a face-to-face and in a screen-to-screen (video) setting. Twelve medical interns and 6 simulated patients prepared 4 different written scenarios and were randomized to perform a total of 48 consultations. Effects of the consultations were measured by questionnaires that participants filled out directly after the consultation. Results With respect to patient-related outcomes, satisfaction, perceived information exchange, interpersonal relationship building, and perceived shared decision making showed no significant differences between face-to-face and screen-to-screen consultations. Patients’ attitude toward Web-based communication (b=−.249, P=.02 and patients’ perceived time and attention (b=.271, P=.03) significantly predicted patients’ perceived interpersonal relationship building. Patients’ perceived shared decision making was positively related to their satisfaction with the consultation (b=.254, P=.005). Overall, patients experienced significantly greater shared decision making with a female doctor (mean 4.21, SD 0.49) than with a male doctor (mean 3.66 [SD 0.73]; b=.401, P=.009). Doctor-related outcomes showed no significant differences in satisfaction, perceived information exchange, interpersonal relationship building, and perceived shared decision making between the conditions. There was a positive relationship between perceived information exchange and doctors’ satisfaction with the consultation (b=.533, P<.001). Furthermore, doctors’ perceived interpersonal relationship building was positively related to doctors’ satisfaction with the consultation (b=.331, P=.003). Conclusions In this study, the quality of doctor-patient communication, as indicated by information exchange, interpersonal relationship building, and shared decision making, did not differ significantly between Web-based and face-to-face consultations. Doctors and simulated patients were equally satisfied with both types of consultation medium, and no differences were found in the manner in which participants perceived communicative behavior during these consultations. The findings suggest that worries about a negative impact of Web-based video consultation on the quality of patient-provider consultations seem unwarranted as they offer the same interaction quality and satisfaction level as regular face-to-face consultations. PMID:29263017

Specification of Training Simulator Fidelity: A Research Plan. Technical Report 558.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baum, David R.; And Others

This report presents a research plan to guide the determination of the empirical relationship between level of maintenance training simulator fidelity and training effectiveness. Chapter I describes data collection and analysis activities undertaken to provide guidance for fidelity decision making by the training simulator development community.…

Plant Closings and Capital Flight: A Computer-Assisted Simulation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Warner, Stanley; Breitbart, Myrna M.

1989-01-01

A course at Hampshire College was designed to simulate the decision-making environment in which constituencies in a medium-sized city would respond to the closing and relocation of a major corporate plant. The project, constructed as a role simulation with a computer component, is described. (MLW)

Instructional Simulation of a Commercial Banking System.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hester, Donald D.

1991-01-01

Describes an instructional simulation of a commercial banking system. Identifies the teaching of portfolio theory, market robustness, and the subtleties of institutional constraints and decision making under uncertainty as the project's goals. Discusses the results of applying the simulation in an environment of local and national markets and a…

Considerations for Reporting Finite Element Analysis Studies in Biomechanics

PubMed Central

Erdemir, Ahmet; Guess, Trent M.; Halloran, Jason; Tadepalli, Srinivas C.; Morrison, Tina M.

2012-01-01

Simulation-based medicine and the development of complex computer models of biological structures is becoming ubiquitous for advancing biomedical engineering and clinical research. Finite element analysis (FEA) has been widely used in the last few decades to understand and predict biomechanical phenomena. Modeling and simulation approaches in biomechanics are highly interdisciplinary, involving novice and skilled developers in all areas of biomedical engineering and biology. While recent advances in model development and simulation platforms offer a wide range of tools to investigators, the decision making process during modeling and simulation has become more opaque. Hence, reliability of such models used for medical decision making and for driving multiscale analysis comes into question. Establishing guidelines for model development and dissemination is a daunting task, particularly with the complex and convoluted models used in FEA. Nonetheless, if better reporting can be established, researchers will have a better understanding of a model’s value and the potential for reusability through sharing will be bolstered. Thus, the goal of this document is to identify resources and considerate reporting parameters for FEA studies in biomechanics. These entail various levels of reporting parameters for model identification, model structure, simulation structure, verification, validation, and availability. While we recognize that it may not be possible to provide and detail all of the reporting considerations presented, it is possible to establish a level of confidence with selective use of these parameters. More detailed reporting, however, can establish an explicit outline of the decision-making process in simulation-based analysis for enhanced reproducibility, reusability, and sharing. PMID:22236526

Three-dimensional Virtual Simulation of Oil Spill of Yangtze River in Chongqing Area Based on Emergency Decision

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shuzhe; Huang, Liwen

the river of Yangtze River in Chongqing area is continuous curved. Hydrology and channel situation is complex, and the transportation is busy. With the increasing of shipments of hazardous chemicals year by year, oil spill accident risk is rising. So establishment of three-dimensional virtual simulation of oil spill and its application in decision-making has become an urgent task. This paper detailed the process of three-dimensional virtual simulation of oil spill and established a system of three-dimensional virtual Simulation of oil spill of Yangtze River in Chongqing area by establishing an oil spill model of the Chongqing area based on oil particles model, and the system has been used in emergency decision to provide assistance for the oil spill response.

Effects of imperfect automation on decision making in a simulated command and control task.

PubMed

Rovira, Ericka; McGarry, Kathleen; Parasuraman, Raja

2007-02-01

Effects of four types of automation support and two levels of automation reliability were examined. The objective was to examine the differential impact of information and decision automation and to investigate the costs of automation unreliability. Research has shown that imperfect automation can lead to differential effects of stages and levels of automation on human performance. Eighteen participants performed a "sensor to shooter" targeting simulation of command and control. Dependent variables included accuracy and response time of target engagement decisions, secondary task performance, and subjective ratings of mental work-load, trust, and self-confidence. Compared with manual performance, reliable automation significantly reduced decision times. Unreliable automation led to greater cost in decision-making accuracy under the higher automation reliability condition for three different forms of decision automation relative to information automation. At low automation reliability, however, there was a cost in performance for both information and decision automation. The results are consistent with a model of human-automation interaction that requires evaluation of the different stages of information processing to which automation support can be applied. If fully reliable decision automation cannot be guaranteed, designers should provide users with information automation support or other tools that allow for inspection and analysis of raw data.

ERP Correlates of Simulated Purchase Decisions

PubMed Central

Gajewski, Patrick D.; Drizinsky, Jessica; Zülch, Joachim; Falkenstein, Michael

2016-01-01

Decision making in economic context is an everyday activity but its neuronal correlates are poorly understood. The present study aimed at investigating the electrophysiological brain activity during simulated purchase decisions of technical products for a lower or higher price relative to a mean price estimated in a pilot study. Expectedly, participants mostly decided to buy a product when it was cheap and not to buy when it was expensive. However, in some trials they made counter-conformity decisions to buy a product for a higher than the average price or not to buy it despite an attractive price. These responses took more time and the variability of the response latency was enhanced relative to conformity responses. ERPs showed enhanced conflict related fronto-central N2 during both types of counter-conformity compared to conformity decisions. A reverse pattern was found for the P3a and P3b. The response-locked P3 (r-P3) was larger and the subsequent CNV smaller for counter-conformity than conformity decisions. We assume that counter-conformity decisions elevate the response threshold (larger N2), intensify response evaluation (r-P3) and attenuate the preparation for the next trial (CNV). These effects were discussed in the framework of the functional role of the fronto-parietal cortex in economic decision making. PMID:27551258

ERP Correlates of Simulated Purchase Decisions.

PubMed

Gajewski, Patrick D; Drizinsky, Jessica; Zülch, Joachim; Falkenstein, Michael

2016-01-01

Decision making in economic context is an everyday activity but its neuronal correlates are poorly understood. The present study aimed at investigating the electrophysiological brain activity during simulated purchase decisions of technical products for a lower or higher price relative to a mean price estimated in a pilot study. Expectedly, participants mostly decided to buy a product when it was cheap and not to buy when it was expensive. However, in some trials they made counter-conformity decisions to buy a product for a higher than the average price or not to buy it despite an attractive price. These responses took more time and the variability of the response latency was enhanced relative to conformity responses. ERPs showed enhanced conflict related fronto-central N2 during both types of counter-conformity compared to conformity decisions. A reverse pattern was found for the P3a and P3b. The response-locked P3 (r-P3) was larger and the subsequent CNV smaller for counter-conformity than conformity decisions. We assume that counter-conformity decisions elevate the response threshold (larger N2), intensify response evaluation (r-P3) and attenuate the preparation for the next trial (CNV). These effects were discussed in the framework of the functional role of the fronto-parietal cortex in economic decision making.

Age and expertise effects in aviation decision making and flight control in a flight simulator.

PubMed

Kennedy, Quinn; Taylor, Joy L; Reade, Gordon; Yesavage, Jerome A

2010-05-01

Age (due to declines in cognitive abilities necessary for navigation) and level of aviation expertise are two factors that may affect aviation performance and decision making under adverse weather conditions. We examined the roles of age, expertise, and their relationship on aviation decision making and flight control performance during a flight simulator task. Seventy-two IFR-rated general aviators, aged 19-79 yr, made multiple approach, holding pattern entry, and landing decisions while navigating under Instrument Flight Rules weather conditions. Over three trials in which the fog level varied, subjects decided whether or not to land the aircraft. They also completed two holding pattern entries. Subjects' flight control during approaches and holding patterns was measured. Older pilots (41+ yr) were more likely than younger pilots to land when visibility was inadequate (older pilots' mean false alarm rate: 0.44 vs 0.25). They also showed less precise flight control for components of the approach, performing 0.16 SD below mean approach scores. Expertise attenuated an age-related decline in flight control during holding patterns: older IFR/CFI performed 0.73 SD below mean score; younger IFR/CFI, younger CFII/ATP, older CFII/ATP: 0.32, 0.26, 0.03 SD above mean score. Additionally, pilots with faster processing speed (by median split) had a higher mean landing decision false alarm rate (0.42 vs 0.28), yet performed 0.14 SD above the mean approach control score. Results have implications regarding specialized training for older pilots and for understanding processes involved in older adults' real world decision making and performance.

Toward the Computational Representation of Individual Cultural, Cognitive, and Physiological State: The Sensor Shooter Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

RAYBOURN,ELAINE M.; FORSYTHE,JAMES C.

2001-08-01

This report documents an exploratory FY 00 LDRD project that sought to demonstrate the first steps toward a realistic computational representation of the variability encountered in individual human behavior. Realism, as conceptualized in this project, required that the human representation address the underlying psychological, cultural, physiological, and environmental stressors. The present report outlines the researchers' approach to representing cognitive, cultural, and physiological variability of an individual in an ambiguous situation while faced with a high-consequence decision that would greatly impact subsequent events. The present project was framed around a sensor-shooter scenario as a soldier interacts with an unexpected target (twomore » young Iraqi girls). A software model of the ''Sensor Shooter'' scenario from Desert Storm was developed in which the framework consisted of a computational instantiation of Recognition Primed Decision Making in the context of a Naturalistic Decision Making model [1]. Recognition Primed Decision Making was augmented with an underlying foundation based on our current understanding of human neurophysiology and its relationship to human cognitive processes. While the Gulf War scenario that constitutes the framework for the Sensor Shooter prototype is highly specific, the human decision architecture and the subsequent simulation are applicable to other problems similar in concept, intensity, and degree of uncertainty. The goal was to provide initial steps toward a computational representation of human variability in cultural, cognitive, and physiological state in order to attain a better understanding of the full depth of human decision-making processes in the context of ambiguity, novelty, and heightened arousal.« less

Modelling the impacts of new diagnostic tools for tuberculosis in developing countries to enhance policy decisions.

PubMed

Langley, Ivor; Doulla, Basra; Lin, Hsien-Ho; Millington, Kerry; Squire, Bertie

2012-09-01

The introduction and scale-up of new tools for the diagnosis of Tuberculosis (TB) in developing countries has the potential to make a huge difference to the lives of millions of people living in poverty. To achieve this, policy makers need the information to make the right decisions about which new tools to implement and where in the diagnostic algorithm to apply them most effectively. These decisions are difficult as the new tools are often expensive to implement and use, and the health system and patient impacts uncertain, particularly in developing countries where there is a high burden of TB. The authors demonstrate that a discrete event simulation model could play a significant part in improving and informing these decisions. The feasibility of linking the discrete event simulation to a dynamic epidemiology model is also explored in order to take account of longer term impacts on the incidence of TB. Results from two diagnostic districts in Tanzania are used to illustrate how the approach could be used to improve decisions.

Study of application of adaptive systems to the exploration of the solar system. Volume 2: Survey of solar system missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1973-01-01

Ways in which human intelligence might be simulated onboard an unmanned mission to achieve some of the decision making capability or adaptability of the manned mission are examined. The relative cost and simplicity advantages of the unmanned spacecraft missions are emphasized. Reliable techniques for making onboard decisions and for modifying mission science operations in response to the findings are analyzed.

Using the Reliability Theory for Assessing the Decision Confidence Probability for Comparative Life Cycle Assessments.

PubMed

Wei, Wei; Larrey-Lassalle, Pyrène; Faure, Thierry; Dumoulin, Nicolas; Roux, Philippe; Mathias, Jean-Denis

2016-03-01

Comparative decision making process is widely used to identify which option (system, product, service, etc.) has smaller environmental footprints and for providing recommendations that help stakeholders take future decisions. However, the uncertainty problem complicates the comparison and the decision making. Probability-based decision support in LCA is a way to help stakeholders in their decision-making process. It calculates the decision confidence probability which expresses the probability of a option to have a smaller environmental impact than the one of another option. Here we apply the reliability theory to approximate the decision confidence probability. We compare the traditional Monte Carlo method with a reliability method called FORM method. The Monte Carlo method needs high computational time to calculate the decision confidence probability. The FORM method enables us to approximate the decision confidence probability with fewer simulations than the Monte Carlo method by approximating the response surface. Moreover, the FORM method calculates the associated importance factors that correspond to a sensitivity analysis in relation to the probability. The importance factors allow stakeholders to determine which factors influence their decision. Our results clearly show that the reliability method provides additional useful information to stakeholders as well as it reduces the computational time.

A methodology for eliciting, representing, and analysing stakeholder knowledge for decision making on complex socio-ecological systems: from cognitive maps to agent-based models.

PubMed

Elsawah, Sondoss; Guillaume, Joseph H A; Filatova, Tatiana; Rook, Josefine; Jakeman, Anthony J

2015-03-15

This paper aims to contribute to developing better ways for incorporating essential human elements in decision making processes for modelling of complex socio-ecological systems. It presents a step-wise methodology for integrating perceptions of stakeholders (qualitative) into formal simulation models (quantitative) with the ultimate goal of improving understanding and communication about decision making in complex socio-ecological systems. The methodology integrates cognitive mapping and agent based modelling. It cascades through a sequence of qualitative/soft and numerical methods comprising: (1) Interviews to elicit mental models; (2) Cognitive maps to represent and analyse individual and group mental models; (3) Time-sequence diagrams to chronologically structure the decision making process; (4) All-encompassing conceptual model of decision making, and (5) computational (in this case agent-based) Model. We apply the proposed methodology (labelled ICTAM) in a case study of viticulture irrigation in South Australia. Finally, we use strengths-weakness-opportunities-threats (SWOT) analysis to reflect on the methodology. Results show that the methodology leverages the use of cognitive mapping to capture the richness of decision making and mental models, and provides a combination of divergent and convergent analysis methods leading to the construction of an Agent Based Model. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adolescent decision making about participation in a hypothetical HIV vaccine trial.

PubMed

Alexander, Andreia B; Ott, Mary A; Lally, Michelle A; Sniecinski, Kevin; Baker, Alyne; Zimet, Gregory D

2015-03-10

The purpose of this study was to examine the process of adolescent decision-making about participation in an HIV vaccine clinical trial, comparing it to adult models of informed consent with attention to developmental differences. As part of a larger study of preventive misconception in adolescent HIV vaccine trials, we interviewed 33 male and female 16-19-year-olds who have sex with men. Participants underwent a simulated HIV vaccine trial consent process, and then completed a semistructured interview about their decision making process when deciding whether or not to enroll in and HIV vaccine trial. An ethnographic content analysis approach was utilized. Twelve concepts related to adolescents' decision-making about participation in an HIV vaccine trial were identified and mapped onto Appelbaum and Grisso's four components of decision making capacity including understanding of vaccines and how they work, the purpose of the study, trial procedures, and perceived trial risks and benefits, an appreciation of their own situation, the discussion and weighing of risks and benefits, discussing the need to consult with others about participation, motivations for participation, and their choice to participate. The results of this study suggest that most adolescents at high risk for HIV demonstrate the key abilities needed to make meaningful decisions about HIV vaccine clinical trial participation. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

PSYCHE: An Object-Oriented Approach to Simulating Medical Education

PubMed Central

Mullen, Jamie A.

1990-01-01

Traditional approaches to computer-assisted instruction (CAI) do not provide realistic simulations of medical education, in part because they do not utilize heterogeneous knowledge bases for their source of domain knowledge. PSYCHE, a CAI program designed to teach hypothetico-deductive psychiatric decision-making to medical students, uses an object-oriented implementation of an intelligent tutoring system (ITS) to model the student, domain expert, and tutor. It models the transactions between the participants in complex transaction chains, and uses heterogeneous knowledge bases to represent both domain and procedural knowledge in clinical medicine. This object-oriented approach is a flexible and dynamic approach to modeling, and represents a potentially valuable tool for the investigation of medical education and decision-making.

Using Decision Trees to Detect and Isolate Simulated Leaks in the J-2X Rocket Engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schwabacher, Mark A.; Aguilar, Robert; Figueroa, Fernando F.

2009-01-01

The goal of this work was to use data-driven methods to automatically detect and isolate faults in the J-2X rocket engine. It was decided to use decision trees, since they tend to be easier to interpret than other data-driven methods. The decision tree algorithm automatically "learns" a decision tree by performing a search through the space of possible decision trees to find one that fits the training data. The particular decision tree algorithm used is known as C4.5. Simulated J-2X data from a high-fidelity simulator developed at Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne and known as the Detailed Real-Time Model (DRTM) was used to "train" and test the decision tree. Fifty-six DRTM simulations were performed for this purpose, with different leak sizes, different leak locations, and different times of leak onset. To make the simulations as realistic as possible, they included simulated sensor noise, and included a gradual degradation in both fuel and oxidizer turbine efficiency. A decision tree was trained using 11 of these simulations, and tested using the remaining 45 simulations. In the training phase, the C4.5 algorithm was provided with labeled examples of data from nominal operation and data including leaks in each leak location. From the data, it "learned" a decision tree that can classify unseen data as having no leak or having a leak in one of the five leak locations. In the test phase, the decision tree produced very low false alarm rates and low missed detection rates on the unseen data. It had very good fault isolation rates for three of the five simulated leak locations, but it tended to confuse the remaining two locations, perhaps because a large leak at one of these two locations can look very similar to a small leak at the other location.

SILHIL Replication of Electric Aircraft Powertrain Dynamics and Inner-Loop Control for V&V of System Health Management Routines

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bole, Brian; Teubert, Christopher Allen; Cuong Chi, Quach; Hogge, Edward; Vazquez, Sixto; Goebel, Kai; George, Vachtsevanos

2013-01-01

Software-in-the-loop and Hardware-in-the-loop testing of failure prognostics and decision making tools for aircraft systems will facilitate more comprehensive and cost-effective testing than what is practical to conduct with flight tests. A framework is described for the offline recreation of dynamic loads on simulated or physical aircraft powertrain components based on a real-time simulation of airframe dynamics running on a flight simulator, an inner-loop flight control policy executed by either an autopilot routine or a human pilot, and a supervisory fault management control policy. The creation of an offline framework for verifying and validating supervisory failure prognostics and decision making routines is described for the example of battery charge depletion failure scenarios onboard a prototype electric unmanned aerial vehicle.

A Computational Approach to Characterizing the Impact of Social Influence on Individuals’ Vaccination Decision Making

PubMed Central

Xia, Shang; Liu, Jiming

2013-01-01

In modeling individuals vaccination decision making, existing studies have typically used the payoff-based (e.g., game-theoretical) approaches that evaluate the risks and benefits of vaccination. In reality, whether an individual takes vaccine or not is also influenced by the decisions of others, i.e., due to the impact of social influence. In this regard, we present a dual-perspective view on individuals decision making that incorporates both the cost analysis of vaccination and the impact of social influence. In doing so, we consider a group of individuals making their vaccination decisions by both minimizing the associated costs and evaluating the decisions of others. We apply social impact theory (SIT) to characterize the impact of social influence with respect to individuals interaction relationships. By doing so, we propose a novel modeling framework that integrates an extended SIT-based characterization of social influence with a game-theoretical analysis of cost minimization. We consider the scenario of voluntary vaccination against an influenza-like disease through a series of simulations. We investigate the steady state of individuals’ decision making, and thus, assess the impact of social influence by evaluating the coverage of vaccination for infectious diseases control. Our simulation results suggest that individuals high conformity to social influence will increase the vaccination coverage if the cost of vaccination is low, and conversely, will decrease it if the cost is high. Interestingly, if individuals are social followers, the resulting vaccination coverage would converge to a certain level, depending on individuals’ initial level of vaccination willingness rather than the associated costs. We conclude that social influence will have an impact on the control of an infectious disease as they can affect the vaccination coverage. In this respect, our work can provide a means for modeling the impact of social influence as well as for estimating the effectiveness of a voluntary vaccination program. PMID:23585835

A computational approach to characterizing the impact of social influence on individuals' vaccination decision making.

PubMed

Xia, Shang; Liu, Jiming

2013-01-01

In modeling individuals vaccination decision making, existing studies have typically used the payoff-based (e.g., game-theoretical) approaches that evaluate the risks and benefits of vaccination. In reality, whether an individual takes vaccine or not is also influenced by the decisions of others, i.e., due to the impact of social influence. In this regard, we present a dual-perspective view on individuals decision making that incorporates both the cost analysis of vaccination and the impact of social influence. In doing so, we consider a group of individuals making their vaccination decisions by both minimizing the associated costs and evaluating the decisions of others. We apply social impact theory (SIT) to characterize the impact of social influence with respect to individuals interaction relationships. By doing so, we propose a novel modeling framework that integrates an extended SIT-based characterization of social influence with a game-theoretical analysis of cost minimization. We consider the scenario of voluntary vaccination against an influenza-like disease through a series of simulations. We investigate the steady state of individuals' decision making, and thus, assess the impact of social influence by evaluating the coverage of vaccination for infectious diseases control. Our simulation results suggest that individuals high conformity to social influence will increase the vaccination coverage if the cost of vaccination is low, and conversely, will decrease it if the cost is high. Interestingly, if individuals are social followers, the resulting vaccination coverage would converge to a certain level, depending on individuals' initial level of vaccination willingness rather than the associated costs. We conclude that social influence will have an impact on the control of an infectious disease as they can affect the vaccination coverage. In this respect, our work can provide a means for modeling the impact of social influence as well as for estimating the effectiveness of a voluntary vaccination program.

A fuzzy stochastic framework for managing hydro-environmental and socio-economic interactions under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subagadis, Yohannes Hagos; Schütze, Niels; Grundmann, Jens

2014-05-01

An amplified interconnectedness between a hydro-environmental and socio-economic system brings about profound challenges of water management decision making. In this contribution, we present a fuzzy stochastic approach to solve a set of decision making problems, which involve hydrologically, environmentally, and socio-economically motivated criteria subjected to uncertainty and ambiguity. The proposed methodological framework combines objective and subjective criteria in a decision making procedure for obtaining an acceptable ranking in water resources management alternatives under different type of uncertainty (subjective/objective) and heterogeneous information (quantitative/qualitative) simultaneously. The first step of the proposed approach involves evaluating the performance of alternatives with respect to different types of criteria. The ratings of alternatives with respect to objective and subjective criteria are evaluated by simulation-based optimization and fuzzy linguistic quantifiers, respectively. Subjective and objective uncertainties related to the input information are handled through linking fuzziness and randomness together. Fuzzy decision making helps entail the linguistic uncertainty and a Monte Carlo simulation process is used to map stochastic uncertainty. With this framework, the overall performance of each alternative is calculated using an Order Weighted Averaging (OWA) aggregation operator accounting for decision makers' experience and opinions. Finally, ranking is achieved by conducting pair-wise comparison of management alternatives. This has been done on the basis of the risk defined by the probability of obtaining an acceptable ranking and mean difference in total performance for the pair of management alternatives. The proposed methodology is tested in a real-world hydrosystem, to find effective and robust intervention strategies for the management of a coastal aquifer system affected by saltwater intrusion due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture and municipal use. The results show that the approach gives useful support for robust decision-making and is sensitive to the decision makers' degree of optimism.

Simulating Terrorism: Credible Commitment, Costly Signaling, and Strategic Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Siegel, David A.; Young, Joseph K.

2009-01-01

We present two simulations designed to convey the strategic nature of terrorism and counterterrorism. The first is a simulated hostage crisis, designed primarily to illustrate the concepts of credible commitment and costly signaling. The second explores high-level decision making of both a terrorist group and the state, and is designed to…

Parameterization of ALMANAC crop simulation model for non-irrigated dry bean in semi-arid temperate areas in Mexico

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Simulation models can be used to make management decisions when properly parameterized. This study aimed to parameterize the ALMANAC (Agricultural Land Management Alternatives with Numerical Assessment Criteria) crop simulation model for dry bean in the semi-arid temperate areas of Mexico. The par...

Using Simulation to Develop Entrepreneurial Skills and Mind-Set: An Exploratory Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Costin, Yvonne; O'Brien, Michael P.; Slattery, Darina M.

2018-01-01

Entrepreneurs need to develop a range of skills to be successful, including skills in decision making, risk management, problem solving, communication, and teamwork. Games and simulations are increasingly being used in both academia and business to encourage such skills development. This paper describes a business simulation module whereby…

The SIMRAND methodology - Simulation of Research and Development Projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miles, R. F., Jr.

1984-01-01

In research and development projects, a commonly occurring management decision is concerned with the optimum allocation of resources to achieve the project goals. Because of resource constraints, management has to make a decision regarding the set of proposed systems or tasks which should be undertaken. SIMRAND (Simulation of Research and Development Projects) is a methodology which was developed for aiding management in this decision. Attention is given to a problem description, aspects of model formulation, the reduction phase of the model solution, the simulation phase, and the evaluation phase. The implementation of the considered approach is illustrated with the aid of an example which involves a simplified network of the type used to determine the price of silicon solar cells.

Evaluation of weather-based rice yield models in India.

PubMed

Sudharsan, D; Adinarayana, J; Reddy, D Raji; Sreenivas, G; Ninomiya, S; Hirafuji, M; Kiura, T; Tanaka, K; Desai, U B; Merchant, S N

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to compare two different rice simulation models--standalone (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer [DSSAT]) and web based (SImulation Model for RIce-Weather relations [SIMRIW])--with agrometeorological data and agronomic parameters for estimation of rice crop production in southern semi-arid tropics of India. Studies were carried out on the BPT5204 rice variety to evaluate two crop simulation models. Long-term experiments were conducted in a research farm of Acharya N G Ranga Agricultural University (ANGRAU), Hyderabad, India. Initially, the results were obtained using 4 years (1994-1997) of data with weather parameters from a local weather station to evaluate DSSAT simulated results with observed values. Linear regression models used for the purpose showed a close relationship between DSSAT and observed yield. Subsequently, yield comparisons were also carried out with SIMRIW and DSSAT, and validated with actual observed values. Realizing the correlation coefficient values of SIMRIW simulation values in acceptable limits, further rice experiments in monsoon (Kharif) and post-monsoon (Rabi) agricultural seasons (2009, 2010 and 2011) were carried out with a location-specific distributed sensor network system. These proximal systems help to simulate dry weight, leaf area index and potential yield by the Java based SIMRIW on a daily/weekly/monthly/seasonal basis. These dynamic parameters are useful to the farming community for necessary decision making in a ubiquitous manner. However, SIMRIW requires fine tuning for better results/decision making.

Developing a Corrective Action Simulator to Support Decision Making Research and Training

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-05-01

positions, and any time-based simulation injects (e.g., JSTARS reporting tracks, the Engineer reporting a new aircraft bingo time, a threat being active...future instantiations would benefit from migrating to the IMPRINT Pro version. During the course of this development effort the Army Research...initiating corrective action when a subordinate is observed to make an error (of omission or commission) 58 • Benefits of a Corrective

Learning and Treatment of Anaphylaxis by Laypeople: A Simulation Study Using Pupilar Technology

PubMed Central

Fernandez-Mendez, Felipe; Barcala-Furelos, Roberto; Padron-Cabo, Alexis; Garcia-Magan, Carlos; Moure-Gonzalez, Jose; Contreras-Jordan, Onofre; Rodriguez-Nuñez, Antonio

2017-01-01

An anaphylactic shock is a time-critical emergency situation. The decision-making during emergencies is an important responsibility but difficult to study. Eye-tracking technology allows us to identify visual patterns involved in the decision-making. The aim of this pilot study was to evaluate two training models for the recognition and treatment of anaphylaxis by laypeople, based on expert assessment and eye-tracking technology. A cross-sectional quasi-experimental simulation study was made to evaluate the identification and treatment of anaphylaxis. 50 subjects were randomly assigned to four groups: three groups watching different training videos with content supervised by sanitary personnel and one control group who received face-to-face training during paediatric practice. To evaluate the learning, a simulation scenario represented by an anaphylaxis' victim was designed. A device capturing eye movement as well as expert valuation was used to evaluate the performance. The subjects that underwent paediatric face-to-face training achieved better and faster recognition of the anaphylaxis. They also used the adrenaline injector with better precision and less mistakes, and they needed a smaller number of visual fixations to recognise the anaphylaxis and to make the decision to inject epinephrine. Analysing the different video formats, mixed results were obtained. Therefore, they should be tested to evaluate their usability before implementation. PMID:28758128

PTSD, Acute Stress, Performance and Decision-Making in Emergency Service Workers.

PubMed

Regehr, Cheryl; LeBlanc, Vicki R

2017-06-01

Despite research identifying high levels of stress and traumatic stress symptoms among those in the emergency services, the impact of these symptoms on performance and hence public safety remains uncertain. This review paper discusses a program of research that has examined the effects of prior critical incident exposure, acute stress, and current post-traumatic symptoms on the performance and decision-making during an acutely stressful event among police officers, police communicators, paramedics and child protection workers. Four studies, using simulation methods involving video simulators, human-patient simulators, and/or standardized patients, examined the performance of emergency workers in typical workplace situations related to their individual profession. Results varied according to level of acuity of stress and the nature of performance and decision-making. There was no evidence that PTSD had a direct impact on global performance on tasks for which emergency responders are highly trained. However, PTSD was associated with assessment of risk in situations that required professional judgement. Further, individuals experiencing PTSD symptoms reported higher levels of acute stress when faced with high acuity situations. Acute stress in these studies was associated with performance deficits on complex cognitive tasks, verbal memory impairment and heightened assessment of risk. © 2017 American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law.

Learning and Treatment of Anaphylaxis by Laypeople: A Simulation Study Using Pupilar Technology.

PubMed

Fernandez-Mendez, Felipe; Saez-Gallego, Nieves Maria; Barcala-Furelos, Roberto; Abelairas-Gomez, Cristian; Padron-Cabo, Alexis; Perez-Ferreiros, Alexandra; Garcia-Magan, Carlos; Moure-Gonzalez, Jose; Contreras-Jordan, Onofre; Rodriguez-Nuñez, Antonio

2017-01-01

An anaphylactic shock is a time-critical emergency situation. The decision-making during emergencies is an important responsibility but difficult to study. Eye-tracking technology allows us to identify visual patterns involved in the decision-making. The aim of this pilot study was to evaluate two training models for the recognition and treatment of anaphylaxis by laypeople, based on expert assessment and eye-tracking technology. A cross-sectional quasi-experimental simulation study was made to evaluate the identification and treatment of anaphylaxis. 50 subjects were randomly assigned to four groups: three groups watching different training videos with content supervised by sanitary personnel and one control group who received face-to-face training during paediatric practice. To evaluate the learning, a simulation scenario represented by an anaphylaxis' victim was designed. A device capturing eye movement as well as expert valuation was used to evaluate the performance. The subjects that underwent paediatric face-to-face training achieved better and faster recognition of the anaphylaxis. They also used the adrenaline injector with better precision and less mistakes, and they needed a smaller number of visual fixations to recognise the anaphylaxis and to make the decision to inject epinephrine. Analysing the different video formats, mixed results were obtained. Therefore, they should be tested to evaluate their usability before implementation.

Using Simulation in a Vocational Programme: Does the Method Support the Theory?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rush, Sue; Acton, Lesley; Tolley, Kim; Marks-Maran, Di; Burke, Linda

2010-01-01

Use of simulation is well established as a way of learning and assessing skills in vocational disciplines. In many institutions the use of simulation with student nurses is being tested as a way of helping them learn clinical skills, problem-solving, clinical assessment and decision-making. This paper explores the value of simulation as a learning…

Disaster Response Modeling Through Discrete-Event Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Jeffrey; Gilmer, Graham

2012-01-01

Organizations today are required to plan against a rapidly changing, high-cost environment. This is especially true for first responders to disasters and other incidents, where critical decisions must be made in a timely manner to save lives and resources. Discrete-event simulations enable organizations to make better decisions by visualizing complex processes and the impact of proposed changes before they are implemented. A discrete-event simulation using Simio software has been developed to effectively analyze and quantify the imagery capabilities of domestic aviation resources conducting relief missions. This approach has helped synthesize large amounts of data to better visualize process flows, manage resources, and pinpoint capability gaps and shortfalls in disaster response scenarios. Simulation outputs and results have supported decision makers in the understanding of high risk locations, key resource placement, and the effectiveness of proposed improvements.

The Role of Mental Models in Dynamic Decision-Making

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

Humansystems® Incorporated 111 Farquhar St., Guelph, ON N1H 3N4 Project Manager : Lisa A. Rehak PWGSC Contract No.: W7711-078110/001/TOR Call...simulate the processes that people use to manage complex systems. These analogies, moreover, represent one way to help people to form more accurate...make complex decisions. Control theory’s primary emphasis is on the role of feedback while managing a complex system. What is common to all of these

Validation of educational assessments: a primer for simulation and beyond.

PubMed

Cook, David A; Hatala, Rose

2016-01-01

Simulation plays a vital role in health professions assessment. This review provides a primer on assessment validation for educators and education researchers. We focus on simulation-based assessment of health professionals, but the principles apply broadly to other assessment approaches and topics. Validation refers to the process of collecting validity evidence to evaluate the appropriateness of the interpretations, uses, and decisions based on assessment results. Contemporary frameworks view validity as a hypothesis, and validity evidence is collected to support or refute the validity hypothesis (i.e., that the proposed interpretations and decisions are defensible). In validation, the educator or researcher defines the proposed interpretations and decisions, identifies and prioritizes the most questionable assumptions in making these interpretations and decisions (the "interpretation-use argument"), empirically tests those assumptions using existing or newly-collected evidence, and then summarizes the evidence as a coherent "validity argument." A framework proposed by Messick identifies potential evidence sources: content, response process, internal structure, relationships with other variables, and consequences. Another framework proposed by Kane identifies key inferences in generating useful interpretations: scoring, generalization, extrapolation, and implications/decision. We propose an eight-step approach to validation that applies to either framework: Define the construct and proposed interpretation, make explicit the intended decision(s), define the interpretation-use argument and prioritize needed validity evidence, identify candidate instruments and/or create/adapt a new instrument, appraise existing evidence and collect new evidence as needed, keep track of practical issues, formulate the validity argument, and make a judgment: does the evidence support the intended use? Rigorous validation first prioritizes and then empirically evaluates key assumptions in the interpretation and use of assessment scores. Validation science would be improved by more explicit articulation and prioritization of the interpretation-use argument, greater use of formal validation frameworks, and more evidence informing the consequences and implications of assessment.

Effects of visual, seat, and platform motion during flight simulator air transport pilot training and evaluation

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-04-27

Access to affordable and effective flight-simulation training devices (FSTDs) is critical to safely train airline crews in aviating, navigating, communicating, making decisions, and managing flight-deck and crew resources. This paper provides an over...

The effectiveness of simulation activities on the cognitive abilities of undergraduate third-year nursing students: a randomised control trial.

PubMed

Secomb, Jacinta; McKenna, Lisa; Smith, Colleen

2012-12-01

To provide evidence on the effectiveness of simulation activities on the clinical decision-making abilities of undergraduate nursing students. Based on previous research, it was hypothesised that the higher the cognitive score, the greater the ability a nursing student would have to make informed valid decisions in their clinical practice. Globally, simulation is being espoused as an education method that increases the competence of health professionals. At present, there is very little evidence to support current investment in time and resources. Following ethical approval, fifty-eight third-year undergraduate nursing students were randomised in a pretest-post-test group-parallel controlled trial. The learning environment preferences (LEP) inventory was used to test cognitive abilities in order to refute the null hypothesis that activities in computer-based simulated learning environments have a negative effect on cognitive abilities when compared with activities in skills laboratory simulated learning environments. There was no significant difference in cognitive development following two cycles of simulation activities. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that two simulation tasks, either computer-based or laboratory-based, have no effect on an undergraduate student's ability to make clinical decisions in practice. However, there was a significant finding for non-English first-language students, which requires further investigation. More longitudinal studies that quantify the education effects of simulation on the cognitive, affective and psychomotor attributes of health science students and professionals from both English-speaking and non-English-speaking backgrounds are urgently required. It is also recommended that to achieve increased participant numbers and prevent non-participation owing to absenteeism, further studies need to be imbedded directly into curricula. This investigation confirms the effect of simulation activities on real-life clinical practice, and the comparative learning benefits with traditional clinical practice and university education remain unknown. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Principal Selection Decisions Made by Teachers: The Influence of Principal Candidate Experience

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Winter, Paul A.; Jaeger, Mary Grace

2004-01-01

Public school teachers (N = 189) role-played as members of school councils making principal selection decisions by rating simulated candidates for principal vacancies. The independent variables were principal candidate job experience, candidate person characteristics, and teacher school level. The dependent variable was teacher rating of the job…

How Do Raters Judge Spoken Vocabulary?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Hui

2016-01-01

The aim of the study was to investigate how raters come to their decisions when judging spoken vocabulary. Segmental rating was introduced to quantify raters' decision-making process. It is hoped that this simulated study brings fresh insight to future methodological considerations with spoken data. Twenty trainee raters assessed five Chinese…

An Application of Markov Chains and a Monte-Carlo Simulation to Decision-Making Behavior of an Educational Administrator

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yoda, Koji

1973-01-01

Develops models to systematically forecast the tendency of an educational administrator in charge of personnel selection processes to shift from one decision strategy to another under generally stable environmental conditions. Urges further research on these processes by educational planners. (JF)

A predictive model of nuclear power plant crew decision-making and performance in a dynamic simulation environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coyne, Kevin Anthony

The safe operation of complex systems such as nuclear power plants requires close coordination between the human operators and plant systems. In order to maintain an adequate level of safety following an accident or other off-normal event, the operators often are called upon to perform complex tasks during dynamic situations with incomplete information. The safety of such complex systems can be greatly improved if the conditions that could lead operators to make poor decisions and commit erroneous actions during these situations can be predicted and mitigated. The primary goal of this research project was the development and validation of a cognitive model capable of simulating nuclear plant operator decision-making during accident conditions. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment methods can improve the prediction of human error events by providing rich contextual information and an explicit consideration of feedback arising from man-machine interactions. The Accident Dynamics Simulator paired with the Information, Decision, and Action in a Crew context cognitive model (ADS-IDAC) shows promise for predicting situational contexts that might lead to human error events, particularly knowledge driven errors of commission. ADS-IDAC generates a discrete dynamic event tree (DDET) by applying simple branching rules that reflect variations in crew responses to plant events and system status changes. Branches can be generated to simulate slow or fast procedure execution speed, skipping of procedure steps, reliance on memorized information, activation of mental beliefs, variations in control inputs, and equipment failures. Complex operator mental models of plant behavior that guide crew actions can be represented within the ADS-IDAC mental belief framework and used to identify situational contexts that may lead to human error events. This research increased the capabilities of ADS-IDAC in several key areas. The ADS-IDAC computer code was improved to support additional branching events and provide a better representation of the IDAC cognitive model. An operator decision-making engine capable of responding to dynamic changes in situational context was implemented. The IDAC human performance model was fully integrated with a detailed nuclear plant model in order to realistically simulate plant accident scenarios. Finally, the improved ADS-IDAC model was calibrated, validated, and updated using actual nuclear plant crew performance data. This research led to the following general conclusions: (1) A relatively small number of branching rules are capable of efficiently capturing a wide spectrum of crew-to-crew variabilities. (2) Compared to traditional static risk assessment methods, ADS-IDAC can provide a more realistic and integrated assessment of human error events by directly determining the effect of operator behaviors on plant thermal hydraulic parameters. (3) The ADS-IDAC approach provides an efficient framework for capturing actual operator performance data such as timing of operator actions, mental models, and decision-making activities.

Multiple methods for multiple futures: Integrating qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modeling for natural resource decision making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Symstad, Amy J.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Miller, Brian W.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.

2017-01-01

Scenario planning helps managers incorporate climate change into their natural resource decision making through a structured “what-if” process of identifying key uncertainties and potential impacts and responses. Although qualitative scenarios, in which ecosystem responses to climate change are derived via expert opinion, often suffice for managers to begin addressing climate change in their planning, this approach may face limits in resolving the responses of complex systems to altered climate conditions. In addition, this approach may fall short of the scientific credibility managers often require to take actions that differ from current practice. Quantitative simulation modeling of ecosystem response to climate conditions and management actions can provide this credibility, but its utility is limited unless the modeling addresses the most impactful and management-relevant uncertainties and incorporates realistic management actions. We use a case study to compare and contrast management implications derived from qualitative scenario narratives and from scenarios supported by quantitative simulations. We then describe an analytical framework that refines the case study’s integrated approach in order to improve applicability of results to management decisions. The case study illustrates the value of an integrated approach for identifying counterintuitive system dynamics, refining understanding of complex relationships, clarifying the magnitude and timing of changes, identifying and checking the validity of assumptions about resource responses to climate, and refining management directions. Our proposed analytical framework retains qualitative scenario planning as a core element because its participatory approach builds understanding for both managers and scientists, lays the groundwork to focus quantitative simulations on key system dynamics, and clarifies the challenges that subsequent decision making must address.

Identifying psychophysiological indices of expert vs. novice performance in deadly force judgment and decision making

PubMed Central

Johnson, Robin R.; Stone, Bradly T.; Miranda, Carrie M.; Vila, Bryan; James, Lois; James, Stephen M.; Rubio, Roberto F.; Berka, Chris

2014-01-01

Objective: To demonstrate that psychophysiology may have applications for objective assessment of expertise development in deadly force judgment and decision making (DFJDM). Background: Modern training techniques focus on improving decision-making skills with participative assessment between trainees and subject matter experts primarily through subjective observation. Objective metrics need to be developed. The current proof of concept study explored the potential for psychophysiological metrics in deadly force judgment contexts. Method: Twenty-four participants (novice, expert) were recruited. All wore a wireless Electroencephalography (EEG) device to collect psychophysiological data during high-fidelity simulated deadly force judgment and decision-making simulations using a modified Glock firearm. Participants were exposed to 27 video scenarios, one-third of which would have justified use of deadly force. Pass/fail was determined by whether the participant used deadly force appropriately. Results: Experts had a significantly higher pass rate compared to novices (p < 0.05). Multiple metrics were shown to distinguish novices from experts. Hierarchical regression analyses indicate that psychophysiological variables are able to explain 72% of the variability in expert performance, but only 37% in novices. Discriminant function analysis (DFA) using psychophysiological metrics was able to discern between experts and novices with 72.6% accuracy. Conclusion: While limited due to small sample size, the results suggest that psychophysiology may be developed for use as an objective measure of expertise in DFDJM. Specifically, discriminant function measures may have the potential to objectively identify expert skill acquisition. Application: Psychophysiological metrics may create a performance model with the potential to optimize simulator-based DFJDM training. These performance models could be used for trainee feedback, and/or by the instructor to assess performance objectively. PMID:25100966

Decision-making in honeybee swarms based on quality and distance information of candidate nest sites.

PubMed

Laomettachit, Teeraphan; Termsaithong, Teerasit; Sae-Tang, Anuwat; Duangphakdee, Orawan

2015-01-07

In the nest-site selection process of honeybee swarms, an individual bee performs a waggle dance to communicate information about direction, quality, and distance of a discovered site to other bees at the swarm. Initially, different groups of bees dance to represent different potential sites, but eventually the swarm usually reaches an agreement for only one site. Here, we model the nest-site selection process in honeybee swarms of Apis mellifera and show how the swarms make adaptive decisions based on a trade-off between the quality and distance to candidate nest sites. We use bifurcation analysis and stochastic simulations to reveal that the swarm's site distance preference is moderate>near>far when the swarms choose between low quality sites. However, the distance preference becomes near>moderate>far when the swarms choose between high quality sites. Our simulations also indicate that swarms with large population size prefer nearer sites and, in addition, are more adaptive at making decisions based on available information compared to swarms with smaller population size. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Multi-Operator Simulation for Investigation of Distributed Air Traffic Management Concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peters, Mark E.; Ballin, Mark G.; Sakosky, John S.

2002-01-01

This paper discusses the current development of an air traffic operations simulation that supports feasibility research for advanced air traffic management concepts. The Air Traffic Operations Simulation (ATOS) supports the research of future concepts that provide a much greater role for the flight crew in traffic management decision-making. ATOS provides representations of the future communications, navigation, and surveillance (CNS) infrastructure, a future flight deck systems architecture, and advanced crew interfaces. ATOS also provides a platform for the development of advanced flight guidance and decision support systems that may be required for autonomous operations.

Contribution to solving the energy crisis - Simulating the prospects for low cost energy through silicon solar cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kran, A.

1978-01-01

PECAN (Photovoltaic Energy Conversion Analysis) is a highly interactive decision analysis and support system. It simulates the prospects for widespread use of solar cells for the generation of electrical power. PECAN consists of a set of integrated APL functions for evaluating the potential of terrestrial photovoltaics. Specifically, the system is a deterministic simulator, which translates present and future manufacturing technology into economic and financial terms, using the production unit concept. It guides solar cell development in three areas: tactical decision making, strategic planning, and the formulation of alternative options.

Decision-making after continuous wins or losses in a randomized guessing task: implications for how the prior selection results affect subsequent decision-making.

PubMed

Dong, Guangheng; Lin, Xiao; Zhou, Hongli; Du, Xiaoxia

2014-04-03

Human decision-making is often affected by prior selections and their outcomes, even in situations where decisions are independent and outcomes are unpredictable. In this study, we created a task that simulated real-life non-strategic gambling to examine the effect of prior outcomes on subsequent decisions in a group of male college students. Behavioral performance showed that participants needed more time to react after continuous losses (LOSS) than continuous wins (WIN) and discontinuous outcomes (CONTROL). In addition, participants were more likely to repeat their selections in both WIN and LOSS conditions. Functional MRI data revealed that decisions in WINs were associated with increased activation in the mesolimbic pathway, but decreased activation in the inferior frontal gyrus relative to LOSS. Increased prefrontal cortical activation was observed during LOSS relative to WIN and CONTROL conditions. Taken together, the behavioral and neuroimaging findings suggest that participants tended to repeat previous selections during LOSS trials, a pattern resembling the gambler's fallacy. However, during WIN trials, participants tended to follow their previous lucky decisions, like the 'hot hand' fallacy.

Assessment, design and control strategy development of a fuel cell hybrid electric vehicle for CSU's EcoCAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, Matthew D.

Advanced automotive technology assessment and powertrain design are increasingly performed through modeling, simulation, and optimization. But technology assessments usually target many competing criteria making any individual optimization challenging and arbitrary. Further, independent design simulations and optimizations take considerable time to execute, and design constraints and objectives change throughout the design process. Changes in design considerations usually require re-processing of simulations and more time. In this thesis, these challenges are confronted through CSU's participation in the EcoCAR2 hybrid vehicle design competition. The complexity of the competition's design objectives leveraged development of a decision support system tool to aid in multi-criteria decision making across technologies and to perform powertrain optimization. To make the decision support system interactive, and bypass the problem of long simulation times, a new approach was taken. The result of this research is CSU's architecture selection and component sizing, which optimizes a composite objective function representing the competition score. The selected architecture is an electric vehicle with an onboard range extending hydrogen fuel cell system. The vehicle has a 145kW traction motor, 18.9kWh of lithium ion battery, a 15kW fuel cell system, and 5kg of hydrogen storage capacity. Finally, a control strategy was developed that improves the vehicles performance throughout the driving range under variable driving conditions. In conclusion, the design process used in this research is reviewed and evaluated against other common design methodologies. I conclude, through the highlighted case studies, that the approach is more comprehensive than other popular design methodologies and is likely to lead to a higher quality product. The upfront modeling work and decision support system formulation will pay off in superior and timely knowledge transfer and more informed design decisions. The hypothesis is supported by the three case studies examined in this thesis.

The Impact of Prior Risk Experiences on Subsequent Risky Decision-Making: The Role of the Insula

PubMed Central

Xue, Gui; Lu, Zhonglin; Levin, Irwin P.; Bechara, Antoine

2010-01-01

Risky decision-making is significantly affected by homeostatic states associated with different prior risk experiences, yet the neural mechanisms have not been well understood. Using functional MRI, we examined how gambling decisions and their underlying neural responses were modulated by prior risk experiences, with a focus on the insular cortex since it has been implicated in interoception, emotion and risky decision-making. Fourteen healthy young participants were scanned while performing a gambling task that was designed to simulate daily-life risk taking. Prior risk experience was manipulated by presenting participants with gambles that they were very likely to accept or gambles that they were unlikely to accept. A probe gamble, which was sensitive to individual's risk preference, was presented to examine the effect of prior risk experiences (Risk vs. Norisk) on subsequent risky decisions. Compared to passing on a gamble (Norisk), taking a gamble, especially winning a gamble (Riskwin), was associated with significantly stronger activation in the insular and dorsal medial prefrontal cortices. Decision making after Norisk was more risky and more likely to recruit activation of the insular and anterior cingulate cortices. This insular activity during decision making predicted the extent of risky decisions both within- and across- subjects, and was also correlated with an individual's personality trait of urgency. These findings suggest that the insula plays an important role in activating representations of homeostatic states associated with the experience of risk, which in turn exerts an influence on subsequent decisions. PMID:20045470

Age and Expertise Effects in Aviation Decision Making and Flight Control in a Flight Simulator

PubMed Central

Kennedy, Quinn; Taylor, Joy L.; Reade, Gordon; Yesavage, Jerome A.

2010-01-01

Introduction Age (due to declines in cognitive abilities necessary for navigation) and level of aviation expertise are two factors that may affect aviation performance and decision making under adverse weather conditions. We examined the roles of age, expertise, and their relationship on aviation decision making and flight control performance during a flight simulator task. Methods Seventy-two IFR-rated general aviators, aged 19–79 yr, made multiple approach, holding pattern entry, and landing decisions while navigating under Instrument Flight Rules weather conditions. Over three trials in which the fog level varied, subjects decided whether or not to land the aircraft. They also completed two holding pattern entries. Subjects’ flight control during approaches and holding patterns was measured. Results Older pilots (41+ yr) were more likely than younger pilots to land when visibility was inadequate (older pilots’ mean false alarm rate: 0.44 vs 0.25). They also showed less precise flight control for components of the approach, performing 0.16 SD below mean approach scores. Expertise attenuated an age-related decline in flight control during holding patterns: older IFR/CFI performed 0.73 SD below mean score; younger IFR/CFI, younger CFII/ATP, older CFII/ATP: 0.32, 0.26, 0.03 SD above mean score. Additionally, pilots with faster processing speed (by median split) had a higher mean landing decision false alarm rate (0.42 vs 0.28), yet performed 0.14 SD above the mean approach control score. Conclusions Results have implications regarding specialized training for older pilots and for understanding processes involved in older adults’ real world decision making and performance. PMID:20464816

Differences in Simulated Doctor and Patient Medical Decision Making: A Construal Level Perspective

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yan; Liu, Quanhui; Miao, Danmin; Xiao, Wei

2013-01-01

Background Patients are often confronted with diverse medical decisions. Often lacking relevant medical knowledge, patients fail to independently make medical decisions and instead generally rely on the advice of doctors. Objective This study investigated the characteristics of and differences in doctor–patient medical decision making on the basis of construal level theory. Methods A total of 420 undergraduates majoring in clinical medicine were randomly assigned to six groups. Their decisions to opt for radiotherapy and surgery were investigated, with the choices described in a positive/neutral/negative frame × decision making for self/others. Results Compared with participants giving medical advice to patients, participants deciding for themselves were more likely to select radiotherapy (F1, 404 = 13.92, p = 011). Participants from positive or neutral frames exhibited a higher tendency to choose surgery than did those from negative frames (F2, 404 = 22.53, p<.001). The effect of framing on independent decision making was nonsignificant (F2, 404 = 1.07, p = 35); however the effect of framing on the provision of advice to patients was significant (F2, 404 = 12.95, p<.001). The effect of construal level was significant in the positive frame (F1, 404 = 8.06, p = 005) and marginally significant in the neutral frame (F2, 404 = 3.31, p = 07) but nonsignificant in the negative frame (F2, 404 = .29, p = 59). Conclusion Both social distance and framing depiction significantly affected medical decision making and exhibited a significant interaction. Differences in medical decision making between doctors and patients need further investigation. PMID:24244445

Differences in simulated doctor and patient medical decision making: a construal level perspective.

PubMed

Peng, Jiaxi; He, Fei; Zhang, Yan; Liu, Quanhui; Miao, Danmin; Xiao, Wei

2013-01-01

Patients are often confronted with diverse medical decisions. Often lacking relevant medical knowledge, patients fail to independently make medical decisions and instead generally rely on the advice of doctors. This study investigated the characteristics of and differences in doctor-patient medical decision making on the basis of construal level theory. A total of 420 undergraduates majoring in clinical medicine were randomly assigned to six groups. Their decisions to opt for radiotherapy and surgery were investigated, with the choices described in a positive/neutral/negative frame × decision making for self/others. Compared with participants giving medical advice to patients, participants deciding for themselves were more likely to select radiotherapy (F1, 404 = 13.92, p = 011). Participants from positive or neutral frames exhibited a higher tendency to choose surgery than did those from negative frames (F2, 404 = 22.53, p<.001). The effect of framing on independent decision making was nonsignificant (F2, 404 = 1.07, p = 35); however the effect of framing on the provision of advice to patients was significant (F2, 404 = 12.95, p<.001). The effect of construal level was significant in the positive frame (F1, 404 = 8.06, p = 005) and marginally significant in the neutral frame (F2, 404 = 3.31, p = 07) but nonsignificant in the negative frame (F2, 404 = .29, p = 59). Both social distance and framing depiction significantly affected medical decision making and exhibited a significant interaction. Differences in medical decision making between doctors and patients need further investigation.

Modeling spatial decisions with graph theory: logging roads and forest fragmentation in the Brazilian Amazon.

PubMed

Walker, Robert; Arima, Eugenio; Messina, Joe; Soares-Filho, Britaldo; Perz, Stephen; Vergara, Dante; Sales, Marcio; Pereira, Ritaumaria; Castro, Williams

2013-01-01

This article addresses the spatial decision-making of loggers and implications for forest fragmentation in the Amazon basin. It provides a behavioral explanation for fragmentation by modeling how loggers build road networks, typically abandoned upon removal of hardwoods. Logging road networks provide access to land, and the settlers who take advantage of them clear fields and pastures that accentuate their spatial signatures. In shaping agricultural activities, these networks organize emergent patterns of forest fragmentation, even though the loggers move elsewhere. The goal of the article is to explicate how loggers shape their road networks, in order to theoretically explain an important type of forest fragmentation found in the Amazon basin, particularly in Brazil. This is accomplished by adapting graph theory to represent the spatial decision-making of loggers, and by implementing computational algorithms that build graphs interpretable as logging road networks. The economic behavior of loggers is conceptualized as a profit maximization problem, and translated into spatial decision-making by establishing a formal correspondence between mathematical graphs and road networks. New computational approaches, adapted from operations research, are used to construct graphs and simulate spatial decision-making as a function of discount rates, land tenure, and topographic constraints. The algorithms employed bracket a range of behavioral settings appropriate for areas of terras de volutas, public lands that have not been set aside for environmental protection, indigenous peoples, or colonization. The simulation target sites are located in or near so-called Terra do Meio, once a major logging frontier in the lower Amazon Basin. Simulation networks are compared to empirical ones identified by remote sensing and then used to draw inferences about factors influencing the spatial behavior of loggers. Results overall suggest that Amazonia's logging road networks induce more fragmentation than necessary to access fixed quantities of wood. The paper concludes by considering implications of the approach and findings for Brazil's move to a system of concession logging.

Trial Maneuver Generation and Selection in the Paladin Tactical Decision Generation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chappell, Alan R.; McManus, John W.; Goodrich, Kenneth H.

1992-01-01

To date, increased levels of maneuverability and controllability in aircraft have been postulated as tactically advantageous, but little research has studied maneuvers or tactics that make use of these capabilities. In order to help fill this void, a real time tactical decision generation system for air combat engagements, Paladin, has been developed. Paladin models an air combat engagement as a series of discrete decisions. A detailed description of Paladin's decision making process is presented. This includes the sources of data used, methods of generating reasonable maneuvers for the Paladin aircraft, and selection criteria for choosing the "best" maneuver. Simulation results are presented that show Paladin to be relatively insensitive to errors introduced into the decision process by estimation of future positional and geometric data.

Trial maneuver generation and selection in the Paladin tactical decision generation system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chappell, Alan R.; Mcmanus, John W.; Goodrich, Kenneth H.

1993-01-01

To date, increased levels of maneuverability and controllability in aircraft have been postulated as tactically advantageous, but little research has studied maneuvers or tactics that make use of these capabilities. In order to help fill this void, a real-time tactical decision generation system for air combat engagements, Paladin, has been developed. Paladin models an air combat engagement as a series of discrete decisions. A detailed description of Paladin's decision making process is presented. This includes the sources of data used, methods of generating reasonable maneuvers for the Paladin aircraft, and selection criteria for choosing the 'best' maneuver. Simulation results are presented that show Paladin to be relatively insensitive to errors introduced into the decision process by estimation of future positional and geometric data.

Quantum-like dynamics of decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asano, Masanari; Basieva, Irina; Khrennikov, Andrei; Ohya, Masanori; Tanaka, Yoshiharu

2012-03-01

In cognitive psychology, some experiments for games were reported, and they demonstrated that real players did not use the “rational strategy” provided by classical game theory and based on the notion of the Nasch equilibrium. This psychological phenomenon was called the disjunction effect. Recently, we proposed a model of decision making which can explain this effect (“irrationality” of players) Asano et al. (2010, 2011) [23,24]. Our model is based on the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics, because psychological fluctuations inducing the irrationality are formally represented as quantum fluctuations Asano et al. (2011) [55]. In this paper, we reconsider the process of quantum-like decision-making more closely and redefine it as a well-defined quantum dynamics by using the concept of lifting channel, which is an important concept in quantum information theory. We also present numerical simulation for this quantum-like mental dynamics. It is non-Markovian by its nature. Stabilization to the steady state solution (determining subjective probabilities for decision making) is based on the collective effect of mental fluctuations collected in the working memory of a decision maker.

Thresholds of Extinction: Simulation Strategies in Environmental Values Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glew, Frank

1990-01-01

Describes a simulation exercise for campers and an accompanying curriculum unit--"Thresholds of Extinction"--that addresses the issues of endangered species. Uses this context to illustrate steps in the process of values development: awareness, gathering data, resolution (decision making), responsibility (acting on values), and…

75 FR 65385 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Proposed Collection; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-22

... Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES). SUMMARY: In compliance with the requirement of section 3506(c)(2)(A... of the Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation. Type of Information Collection Request: New... inform decision making regarding the future of NSF support for earthquake engineering research...

Application of wildfire simulation models for risk analysis

Treesearch

Alan A. Ager; Mark A. Finney

2009-01-01

Wildfire simulation models are being widely used by fire and fuels specialists in the U.S. to support tactical and strategic decisions related to the mitigation of wildfire risk. Much of this application has resulted from the development of a minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm (M. Finney) that makes it computationally feasible to simulate thousands of...

Incorporating Reflective Practice into Team Simulation Projects for Improved Learning Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wills, Katherine V.; Clerkin, Thomas A.

2009-01-01

The use of simulation games in business courses is a popular method for providing undergraduate students with experiences similar to those they might encounter in the business world. As such, in 2003 the authors were pleased to find a classroom simulation tool that combined the decision-making and team experiences of a senior management group with…

System Dynamics Modeling for Supply Chain Information Sharing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Yang

In this paper, we try to use the method of system dynamics to model supply chain information sharing. Firstly, we determine the model boundaries, establish system dynamics model of supply chain before information sharing, analyze the model's simulation results under different changed parameters and suggest improvement proposal. Then, we establish system dynamics model of supply chain information sharing and make comparison and analysis on the two model's simulation results, to show the importance of information sharing in supply chain management. We wish that all these simulations would provide scientific supports for enterprise decision-making.

See Change: Classifying single observation transients from HST using SNCosmo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofiatti Nunes, Caroline; Perlmutter, Saul; Nordin, Jakob; Rubin, David; Lidman, Chris; Deustua, Susana E.; Fruchter, Andrew S.; Aldering, Greg Scott; Brodwin, Mark; Cunha, Carlos E.; Eisenhardt, Peter R.; Gonzalez, Anthony H.; Jee, Myungkook J.; Hildebrandt, Hendrik; Hoekstra, Henk; Santos, Joana; Stanford, S. Adam; Stern, Dana R.; Fassbender, Rene; Richard, Johan; Rosati, Piero; Wechsler, Risa H.; Muzzin, Adam; Willis, Jon; Boehringer, Hans; Gladders, Michael; Goobar, Ariel; Amanullah, Rahman; Hook, Isobel; Huterer, Dragan; Huang, Jiasheng; Kim, Alex G.; Kowalski, Marek; Linder, Eric; Pain, Reynald; Saunders, Clare; Suzuki, Nao; Barbary, Kyle H.; Rykoff, Eli S.; Meyers, Joshua; Spadafora, Anthony L.; Hayden, Brian; Wilson, Gillian; Rozo, Eduardo; Hilton, Matt; Dixon, Samantha; Yen, Mike

2016-01-01

The Supernova Cosmology Project (SCP) is executing "See Change", a large HST program to look for possible variation in dark energy using supernovae at z>1. As part of the survey, we often must make time-critical follow-up decisions based on multicolor detection at a single epoch. We demonstrate the use of the SNCosmo software package to obtain simulated fluxes in the HST filters for type Ia and core-collapse supernovae at various redshifts. These simulations allow us to compare photometric data from HST with the distribution of the simulated SNe through methods such as Random Forest, a learning method for classification, and Gaussian Kernel Estimation. The results help us make informed decisions about triggered follow up using HST and ground based observatories to provide time-critical information needed about transients. Examples of this technique applied in the context of See Change are shown.

Design and application of a CA-BDI model to determine farmers' land-use behavior.

PubMed

Liang, Xiaoying; Chen, Hai; Wang, Yanni; Song, Shixiong

2016-01-01

The belief-desire-intention (BDI) model has been widely used to construct reasoning systems for complex tasks in dynamic environments. We have designed a capabilities and abilities (CA)-BDI farmer decision-making model, which is an extension of the BDI architecture and includes internal representations for farmer household Capabilities and Abilities. This model is used to explore farmer learning mechanisms and to simulate the bounded rational decisions made by farmer households. Our case study focuses on the Gaoqu Commune of Mizhi County, Shaanxi Province, China, where scallion is one of the main cash crops. After comparing the differences between actual land-use changes from 2007 to 2009 and the simulation results, we analyze the validity of the model and discuss the potential and limitations of the farmer land-use decision-making model under three scenarios. Based on the design and implementation of the model, the following conclusions can be drawn: (1) the CA-BDI framework is an appropriate model for exploring learning mechanisms and simulating bounded rational decisions; and (2) local governments should encourage scallion planting by assisting scallion farmer cooperatives and farmers to understand the market risk, standardize the rules of their cooperation, and supervise the contracts made between scallion cooperatives and farmers.

The Evaluation of ERP Sandtable Simulation Based on AHP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Lan

Due to the trend of world globalization, many enterprises have extended their business to operate globally. Enterprise resource planning is a powerful management system providing the best business resources information. This paper proposed the theory of AHP, and presented ERP sandtable simulation evaluation to discuss how to make a decision using AHP. Using this method can make enterprises consider factors influence operation of enterprise adequately, including feedback and dependence among the factors.

The Effect of Screen-to-Screen Versus Face-to-Face Consultation on Doctor-Patient Communication: An Experimental Study with Simulated Patients.

PubMed

Tates, Kiek; Antheunis, Marjolijn L; Kanters, Saskia; Nieboer, Theodoor E; Gerritse, Maria Be

2017-12-20

Despite the emergence of Web-based patient-provider contact, it is still unclear how the quality of Web-based doctor-patient interactions differs from face-to-face interactions. This study aimed to examine (1) the impact of a consultation medium on doctors' and patients' communicative behavior in terms of information exchange, interpersonal relationship building, and shared decision making and (2) the mediating role of doctors' and patients' communicative behavior on satisfaction with both types of consultation medium. Doctor-patient consultations on pelvic organ prolapse were simulated, both in a face-to-face and in a screen-to-screen (video) setting. Twelve medical interns and 6 simulated patients prepared 4 different written scenarios and were randomized to perform a total of 48 consultations. Effects of the consultations were measured by questionnaires that participants filled out directly after the consultation. With respect to patient-related outcomes, satisfaction, perceived information exchange, interpersonal relationship building, and perceived shared decision making showed no significant differences between face-to-face and screen-to-screen consultations. Patients' attitude toward Web-based communication (b=-.249, P=.02 and patients' perceived time and attention (b=.271, P=.03) significantly predicted patients' perceived interpersonal relationship building. Patients' perceived shared decision making was positively related to their satisfaction with the consultation (b=.254, P=.005). Overall, patients experienced significantly greater shared decision making with a female doctor (mean 4.21, SD 0.49) than with a male doctor (mean 3.66 [SD 0.73]; b=.401, P=.009). Doctor-related outcomes showed no significant differences in satisfaction, perceived information exchange, interpersonal relationship building, and perceived shared decision making between the conditions. There was a positive relationship between perceived information exchange and doctors' satisfaction with the consultation (b=.533, P<.001). Furthermore, doctors' perceived interpersonal relationship building was positively related to doctors' satisfaction with the consultation (b=.331, P=.003). In this study, the quality of doctor-patient communication, as indicated by information exchange, interpersonal relationship building, and shared decision making, did not differ significantly between Web-based and face-to-face consultations. Doctors and simulated patients were equally satisfied with both types of consultation medium, and no differences were found in the manner in which participants perceived communicative behavior during these consultations. The findings suggest that worries about a negative impact of Web-based video consultation on the quality of patient-provider consultations seem unwarranted as they offer the same interaction quality and satisfaction level as regular face-to-face consultations. ©Kiek Tates, Marjolijn L Antheunis, Saskia Kanters, Theodoor E Nieboer, Maria BE Gerritse. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 20.12.2017.

Training for Aviation Decision Making: The Naturalistic Decision Making Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

1995-01-01

This paper describes the implications of a naturalistic decision making (NDM) perspective for training air crews to make flight-related decisions. The implications are based on two types of analyses: (a) identification of distinctive features that serve as a basis for classifying a diverse set of decision events actually encountered by flight crews, and (b) performance strategies that distinguished more from less effective crews flying full-mission simulators, as well as performance analyses from NTSB accident investigations. Six training recommendations are offered: (1) Because of the diversity of decision situations, crews need to be aware that different strategies may be appropriate for different problems; (2) Given that situation assessment is essential to making a good decision, it is important to train specific content knowledge needed to recognize critical conditions, to assess risks and available time, and to develop strategies to verify or diagnose the problem; (3) Tendencies to oversimplify problems may be overcome by training to evaluate options in terms of goals, constraints, consequences, and prevailing conditions; (4) In order to provide the time to gather information and consider options, it is essential to manage the situation, which includes managing crew workload, prioritizing tasks, contingency planning, buying time (e.g., requesting holding or vectors), and using low workload periods to prepare for high workload; (5) Evaluating resource requirements ("What do I need?") and capabilities ("'What do I have?" ) are essential to making good decisions. Using resources to meet requirements may involve the cabin crew, ATC, dispatchers, and maintenance personnel; (6) Given that decisions must often be made under high risk, time pressure, and workload, train under realistic flight conditions to promote the development of robust decision skills.

Research Using In Vivo Simulation of Meta-Organizational Shared Decision Making (SDM). Task 3: Testing the Shared Decision Making Framework in Vivo

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-01

developed to address the two main research questions (see Annex A). Exact wording of the questions varied during interviews to accommodate the...centre at DMS 3rd floor. All electronic files (including digital audio and video recordings) with participant data are being encrypted and password...locked filing cabinet at the University of Ottawa. Electronic files will remain encrypted, password protected and stored on a server to which only the

Psychopathic individuals exhibit but do not avoid regret during counterfactual decision making.

PubMed

Baskin-Sommers, Arielle; Stuppy-Sullivan, Allison M; Buckholtz, Joshua W

2016-12-13

Psychopathy is associated with persistent antisocial behavior and a striking lack of regret for the consequences of that behavior. Although explanatory models for psychopathy have largely focused on deficits in affective responsiveness, recent work indicates that aberrant value-based decision making may also play a role. On that basis, some have suggested that psychopathic individuals may be unable to effectively use prospective simulations to update action value estimates during cost-benefit decision making. However, the specific mechanisms linking valuation, affective deficits, and maladaptive decision making in psychopathy remain unclear. Using a counterfactual decision-making paradigm, we found that individuals who scored high on a measure of psychopathy were as or more likely than individuals low on psychopathy to report negative affect in response to regret-inducing counterfactual outcomes. However, despite exhibiting intact affective regret sensitivity, they did not use prospective regret signals to guide choice behavior. In turn, diminished behavioral regret sensitivity predicted a higher number of prior incarcerations, and moderated the relationship between psychopathy and incarceration history. These findings raise the possibility that maladaptive decision making in psychopathic individuals is not a consequence of their inability to generate or experience negative emotions. Rather, antisocial behavior in psychopathy may be driven by a deficit in the generation of forward models that integrate information about rules, costs, and goals with stimulus value representations to promote adaptive behavior.

Towards an integrated approach to natural hazards risk assessment using GIS: with reference to bushfires.

PubMed

Chen, Keping; Blong, Russell; Jacobson, Carol

2003-04-01

This paper develops a GIS-based integrated approach to risk assessment in natural hazards, with reference to bushfires. The challenges for undertaking this approach have three components: data integration, risk assessment tasks, and risk decision-making. First, data integration in GIS is a fundamental step for subsequent risk assessment tasks and risk decision-making. A series of spatial data integration issues within GIS such as geographical scales and data models are addressed. Particularly, the integration of both physical environmental data and socioeconomic data is examined with an example linking remotely sensed data and areal census data in GIS. Second, specific risk assessment tasks, such as hazard behavior simulation and vulnerability assessment, should be undertaken in order to understand complex hazard risks and provide support for risk decision-making. For risk assessment tasks involving heterogeneous data sources, the selection of spatial analysis units is important. Third, risk decision-making concerns spatial preferences and/or patterns, and a multicriteria evaluation (MCE)-GIS typology for risk decision-making is presented that incorporates three perspectives: spatial data types, data models, and methods development. Both conventional MCE methods and artificial intelligence-based methods with GIS are identified to facilitate spatial risk decision-making in a rational and interpretable way. Finally, the paper concludes that the integrated approach can be used to assist risk management of natural hazards, in theory and in practice.

Psychopathic individuals exhibit but do not avoid regret during counterfactual decision making

PubMed Central

Baskin-Sommers, Arielle; Stuppy-Sullivan, Allison M.; Buckholtz, Joshua W.

2016-01-01

Psychopathy is associated with persistent antisocial behavior and a striking lack of regret for the consequences of that behavior. Although explanatory models for psychopathy have largely focused on deficits in affective responsiveness, recent work indicates that aberrant value-based decision making may also play a role. On that basis, some have suggested that psychopathic individuals may be unable to effectively use prospective simulations to update action value estimates during cost–benefit decision making. However, the specific mechanisms linking valuation, affective deficits, and maladaptive decision making in psychopathy remain unclear. Using a counterfactual decision-making paradigm, we found that individuals who scored high on a measure of psychopathy were as or more likely than individuals low on psychopathy to report negative affect in response to regret-inducing counterfactual outcomes. However, despite exhibiting intact affective regret sensitivity, they did not use prospective regret signals to guide choice behavior. In turn, diminished behavioral regret sensitivity predicted a higher number of prior incarcerations, and moderated the relationship between psychopathy and incarceration history. These findings raise the possibility that maladaptive decision making in psychopathic individuals is not a consequence of their inability to generate or experience negative emotions. Rather, antisocial behavior in psychopathy may be driven by a deficit in the generation of forward models that integrate information about rules, costs, and goals with stimulus value representations to promote adaptive behavior. PMID:27911790

AFFECT AND THE FRAMING EFFECT WITHIN INDIVIDUALS OVER TIME: RISK TAKING IN A DYNAMIC INVESTMENT SIMULATION

PubMed Central

SEO, MYEONG-GU; GOLDFARB, BRENT; BARRETT, LISA FELDMAN

2011-01-01

We examined the role of affect (pleasant or unpleasant feelings) and decision frames (gains or losses) in risk taking in a 20-day stock investment simulation in which 101 participants rated their current feelings while making investment decisions. As predicted, affect attenuated the relationships between decision frames and risk taking. After experiencing losses, individuals made more risky choices, in keeping with the framing effect. However, this tendency decreased and/or disappeared when loss was simultaneously experienced with either pleasant or unpleasant feelings. Similarly, individuals’ tendency to avoid risk after experiencing gains disappeared or even reversed when they simultaneously experienced pleasant feelings. PMID:26412860

AFFECT AND THE FRAMING EFFECT WITHIN INDIVIDUALS OVER TIME: RISK TAKING IN A DYNAMIC INVESTMENT SIMULATION.

PubMed

Seo, Myeong-Gu; Goldfarb, Brent; Barrett, Lisa Feldman

2010-04-01

We examined the role of affect (pleasant or unpleasant feelings) and decision frames (gains or losses) in risk taking in a 20-day stock investment simulation in which 101 participants rated their current feelings while making investment decisions. As predicted, affect attenuated the relationships between decision frames and risk taking. After experiencing losses, individuals made more risky choices, in keeping with the framing effect. However, this tendency decreased and/or disappeared when loss was simultaneously experienced with either pleasant or unpleasant feelings. Similarly, individuals' tendency to avoid risk after experiencing gains disappeared or even reversed when they simultaneously experienced pleasant feelings.

Use of a Data-Linked Weather Information Display and Effects on Pilot Navigation Decision Making in a Piloted Simulation Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yuchnovicz, Daniel E.; Novacek, Paul F.; Burgess, Malcolm A.; Heck, Michael L.; Stokes, Alan F.

2001-01-01

This study provides recommendations to the FAA and to prospective manufacturers based on an exploration of the effects of data link weather displays upon pilot decision performance. An experiment was conducted with twenty-four current instrument rated pilots who were divided into two equal groups and presented with a challenging but realistic flight scenario involving weather containing significant embedded convective activity. All flights were flown in a full-mission simulation facility within instrument meteorological conditions. The inflight weather display depicted NexRad images, graphical METARs and textual METARs. The objective was to investigate the potential for misuse of a weather display, and incorporate recommendations for the design and use of these displays. The primary conclusion of the study found that the inflight weather display did not improve weather avoidance decision making. Some of the reasons to support this finding include: the pilot's inability to easily perceive their proximity to the storms, increased workload and difficulty in deciphering METAR textual data. The compelling nature of a graphical weather display caused many pilots to reduce their reliance on corroborating weather information from other sources. Minor changes to the weather display could improve the ability of a pilot to make better decisions on hazard avoidance.

Modeling and Simulation of Shuttle Launch and Range Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bardina, Jorge; Thirumalainambi, Rajkumar

2004-01-01

The simulation and modeling test bed is based on a mockup of a space flight operations control suitable to experiment physical, procedural, software, hardware and psychological aspects of space flight operations. The test bed consists of a weather expert system to advise on the effect of weather to the launch operations. It also simulates toxic gas dispersion model, impact of human health risk, debris dispersion model in 3D visualization. Since all modeling and simulation is based on the internet, it could reduce the cost of operations of launch and range safety by conducting extensive research before a particular launch. Each model has an independent decision making module to derive the best decision for launch.

A probabilistic, distributed, recursive mechanism for decision-making in the brain

PubMed Central

Gurney, Kevin N.

2018-01-01

Decision formation recruits many brain regions, but the procedure they jointly execute is unknown. Here we characterize its essential composition, using as a framework a novel recursive Bayesian algorithm that makes decisions based on spike-trains with the statistics of those in sensory cortex (MT). Using it to simulate the random-dot-motion task, we demonstrate it quantitatively replicates the choice behaviour of monkeys, whilst predicting losses of otherwise usable information from MT. Its architecture maps to the recurrent cortico-basal-ganglia-thalamo-cortical loops, whose components are all implicated in decision-making. We show that the dynamics of its mapped computations match those of neural activity in the sensorimotor cortex and striatum during decisions, and forecast those of basal ganglia output and thalamus. This also predicts which aspects of neural dynamics are and are not part of inference. Our single-equation algorithm is probabilistic, distributed, recursive, and parallel. Its success at capturing anatomy, behaviour, and electrophysiology suggests that the mechanism implemented by the brain has these same characteristics. PMID:29614077

Adding ecosystem function to agent-based land use models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The objective of this paper is to examine issues in the inclusion of simulations of ecosystem functions in agent-based models of land use decision-making. The reasons for incorporating these simulations include local interests in land fertility and global interests in carbon sequestration. Biogeoche...

Intervention: Simulating the War on Global Terrorism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steinbrink, John E.; Helmer, Joel W.

2004-01-01

Students analyze a contemporary geopolitical event from a comprehensive geographic perspective using role play simulation, discussion, and decision-making. The three-day activity provides teachers with a realistic, ready-made classroom lesson that combines powerful conceptual learning with drama and surprise. The task of the teacher is to…

Global sensitivity analysis for UNSATCHEM simulations of crop production with degraded waters

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

One strategy for maintaining irrigated agricultural productivity in the face of diminishing resource availability is to make greater use of marginal quality waters and lands. A key to sustaining systems using degraded irrigation waters is salinity management. Advanced simulation models and decision ...

Eco-informatics for decision makers advancing a research agenda

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cushing, J.B.; Wilson, T.; Brandt, L.; Gregg, V.; Spengler, S.; Borning, A.; Delcambre, L.; Bowker, G.; Frame, M.; Fulop, J.; Hert, C.; Hovy, E.; Jones, J.; Landis, E.; Schnase, J.L.; Schweik, C.; Sonntag, W.; ,

2005-01-01

Resource managers often face significant information technology (IT) problems when integrating ecological or environmental information to make decisions. At a workshop sponsored by the NSF and USGS in December 2004, university researchers, natural resource managers, and information managers met to articulate IT problems facing ecology and environmental decision makers. Decision making IT problems were identified in five areas: 1) policy, 2) data presentation, 3) data gaps, 4) tools, and 5) indicators. To alleviate those problems, workshop participants recommended specific informatics research in modeling and simulation, data quality, information integration and ontologies, and social and human aspects. This paper reports the workshop findings, and briefly compares these with research that traditionally falls under the emerging eco-informatics rubric. ?? Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2005.

Forestry Decisions

Treesearch

Stephen G. Boyce

1985-01-01

Viewing the forest as a system that self-organizes in response to a schedule of harvest and culture provides a new basis for making forestry decisions. Computer simulations of states of forest organization through time provide displays of tne production of forest benefits ranging from timber and water to wildlife and recreation. From these displays, the manager chooses...

[Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies].

PubMed

de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho; Soares, Marta Oliveira; Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh

2014-10-01

Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

Heuristic-based information acquisition and decision making among pilots.

PubMed

Wiggins, Mark W; Bollwerk, Sandra

2006-01-01

This research was designed to examine the impact of heuristic-based approaches to the acquisition of task-related information on the selection of an optimal alternative during simulated in-flight decision making. The work integrated features of naturalistic and normative decision making and strategies of information acquisition within a computer-based, decision support framework. The study comprised two phases, the first of which involved familiarizing pilots with three different heuristic-based strategies of information acquisition: frequency, elimination by aspects, and majority of confirming decisions. The second stage enabled participants to choose one of the three strategies of information acquisition to resolve a fourth (choice) scenario. The results indicated that task-oriented experience, rather than the information acquisition strategies, predicted the selection of the optimal alternative. It was also evident that of the three strategies available, the elimination by aspects information acquisition strategy was preferred by most participants. It was concluded that task-oriented experience, rather than the process of information acquisition, predicted task accuracy during the decision-making task. It was also concluded that pilots have a preference for one particular approach to information acquisition. Applications of outcomes of this research include the development of decision support systems that adapt to the information-processing capabilities and preferences of users.

Simulation as a preoperative planning approach in advanced heart failure patients. A retrospective clinical analysis.

PubMed

Capoccia, Massimo; Marconi, Silvia; Singh, Sanjeet Avtaar; Pisanelli, Domenico M; De Lazzari, Claudio

2018-05-02

Modelling and simulation may become clinically applicable tools for detailed evaluation of the cardiovascular system and clinical decision-making to guide therapeutic intervention. Models based on pressure-volume relationship and zero-dimensional representation of the cardiovascular system may be a suitable choice given their simplicity and versatility. This approach has great potential for application in heart failure where the impact of left ventricular assist devices has played a significant role as a bridge to transplant and more recently as a long-term solution for non eligible candidates. We sought to investigate the value of simulation in the context of three heart failure patients with a view to predict or guide further management. CARDIOSIM © was the software used for this purpose. The study was based on retrospective analysis of haemodynamic data previously discussed at a multidisciplinary meeting. The outcome of the simulations addressed the value of a more quantitative approach in the clinical decision process. Although previous experience, co-morbidities and the risk of potentially fatal complications play a role in clinical decision-making, patient-specific modelling may become a daily approach for selection and optimisation of device-based treatment for heart failure patients. Willingness to adopt this integrated approach may be the key to further progress.

Using simulation to isolate physician variation in intensive care unit admission decision making for critically ill elders with end-stage cancer: a pilot feasibility study.

PubMed

Barnato, Amber E; Hsu, Heather E; Bryce, Cindy L; Lave, Judith R; Emlet, Lillian L; Angus, Derek C; Arnold, Robert M

2008-12-01

To determine the feasibility of high-fidelity simulation for studying variation in intensive care unit admission decision making for critically ill elders with end-stage cancer. Mixed qualitative and quantitative analysis of physician subjects participating in a simulation scenario using hospital set, actors, medical chart, and vital signs tracings. The simulation depicted a 78-yr-old man with metastatic gastric cancer, life-threatening hypoxia most likely attributable to cancer progression, and stable preferences to avoid intensive care unit admission and intubation. Two independent raters assessed the simulations and subjects completed a postsimulation web-based survey and debriefing interview. Peter M. Winter Institute for Simulation Education and Research at the University of Pittsburgh. Twenty-seven hospital-based attending physicians, including 6 emergency physicians, 13 hospitalists, and 8 intensivists. Outcomes included qualitative report of clinical verisimilitude during the debriefing interview, survey-reported diagnosis and prognosis, and observed treatment decisions. Independent variables included physician demographics, risk attitude, and reactions to uncertainty. All (100%) reported that the case and simulation were highly realistic, and their diagnostic and prognostic assessments were consistent with our intent. Eight physicians (29.6%) admitted the patient to the intensive care unit. Among the eight physicians who admitted the patient to the intensive care unit, three (37%) initiated palliation, two (25%) documented the patient's code status (do not intubate/do not resuscitate), and one intubated the patient. Among the 19 physicians who did not admit the patient to the intensive care unit, 13 (68%) initiated palliation and 5 (42%) documented code status. Intensivists and emergency physicians (p = 0.048) were more likely to admit the patient to the intensive care unit. Years since medical school graduation were inversely associated with the initiation of palliative care (p = 0.043). Simulation can reproduce the decision context of intensive care unit triage for a critically ill patient with terminal illness. When faced with an identical patient, hospital-based physicians from the same institution vary significantly in their treatment decisions.

Load index model: An advanced tool to support decision making during mass-casualty incidents.

PubMed

Adini, Bruria; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor; Israeli, Avi

2015-03-01

In mass-casualty events, accessing information concerning hospital congestion levels is crucial to improving patient distribution and optimizing care. The study aimed to develop a decision support tool for distributing casualties to hospitals in an emergency scenario involving multiple casualties. A comprehensive literature review and structured interviews with 20 content experts produced a shortlist of relevant criteria for inclusion in the model. A "load index model" was prepared, incorporating results of a modified Delphi survey of 100 emergency response experts. The model was tested in three simulation exercises in which an emergency scenario was presented to six groups of senior emergency managers. Information was provided regarding capacities of 11 simulated admitting hospitals in the region, and evacuation destinations were requested for 600 simulated casualties. Of the three simulation rounds, two were performed without the model and one after its presentation. Following simulation experiments and implementation during a real-life security threat, the efficacy of the model was assessed. Variability between experts concerning casualties' evacuation destinations decreased significantly following the model's introduction. Most responders (92%) supported the need for standardized data, and 85% found that the model improved policy setting regarding casualty evacuation in an emergency situation. These findings were reaffirmed in a real-life emergency scenario. The proposed model improved capacity to ensure evacuation of patients to less congested medical facilities in emergency situations, thereby enhancing lifesaving medical services. The model supported decision-making processes in both simulation exercises and an actual emergency situation.

Evaluation of weather-based rice yield models in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudharsan, D.; Adinarayana, J.; Reddy, D. Raji; Sreenivas, G.; Ninomiya, S.; Hirafuji, M.; Kiura, T.; Tanaka, K.; Desai, U. B.; Merchant, S. N.

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to compare two different rice simulation models—standalone (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer [DSSAT]) and web based (SImulation Model for RIce-Weather relations [SIMRIW])—with agrometeorological data and agronomic parameters for estimation of rice crop production in southern semi-arid tropics of India. Studies were carried out on the BPT5204 rice variety to evaluate two crop simulation models. Long-term experiments were conducted in a research farm of Acharya N G Ranga Agricultural University (ANGRAU), Hyderabad, India. Initially, the results were obtained using 4 years (1994-1997) of data with weather parameters from a local weather station to evaluate DSSAT simulated results with observed values. Linear regression models used for the purpose showed a close relationship between DSSAT and observed yield. Subsequently, yield comparisons were also carried out with SIMRIW and DSSAT, and validated with actual observed values. Realizing the correlation coefficient values of SIMRIW simulation values in acceptable limits, further rice experiments in monsoon (Kharif) and post-monsoon (Rabi) agricultural seasons (2009, 2010 and 2011) were carried out with a location-specific distributed sensor network system. These proximal systems help to simulate dry weight, leaf area index and potential yield by the Java based SIMRIW on a daily/weekly/monthly/seasonal basis. These dynamic parameters are useful to the farming community for necessary decision making in a ubiquitous manner. However, SIMRIW requires fine tuning for better results/decision making.

Make or buy decision model with multi-stage manufacturing process and supplier imperfect quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pratama, Mega Aria; Rosyidi, Cucuk Nur

2017-11-01

This research develops an make or buy decision model considering supplier imperfect quality. This model can be used to help companies make the right decision in case of make or buy component with the best quality and the least cost in multistage manufacturing process. The imperfect quality is one of the cost component that must be minimizing in this model. Component with imperfect quality, not necessarily defective. It still can be rework and used for assembly. This research also provide a numerical example and sensitivity analysis to show how the model work. We use simulation and help by crystal ball to solve the numerical problem. The sensitivity analysis result show that percentage of imperfect generally not affect to the model significantly, and the model is not sensitive to changes in these parameters. This is because the imperfect cost are smaller than overall total cost components.

Investigating the Environment: Investigating Resource Acquisition and Use.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sheridan, Jack

This unit provides the student with a simulated experience in the development of decision making skills. The acquisition of petroleum resources in a hypothetical republic provides the basic scenario around which the simulation develops. Students are supplied with specific information about petroleum geology, finances, and drilling. With this…

Evaluating the Relationship between Simulation and Clinical Decision-Making in Physical Therapy Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Macauley, Kelly

2017-01-01

Physical therapy students are frequently ill-prepared to practice in the dynamic healthcare environment immediately after graduation. Implementing other teaching modalities may help to better prepare physical therapy graduates. Medical student and nursing education have effectively used simulation to help prepare students effectively for clinical…

Synergy across the Curriculum: Simulating the Institution of Postwar Iraqi Government

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Austin, W. Chadwick; McDowell, Todd; Sacko, David H.

2006-01-01

This article describes an undergraduate simulation that formulates Iraqi regimes following the removal of Saddam Hussein's Baathist regime. This exercise reinforces student comprehension and awareness for a range of legal and political topics--including group decision making, international law, diplomacy, and human rights--by actively engaging the…

"Aid to Thought"--Just Simulate It!

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kinczkowski, Linda; Cardon, Phillip; Speelman, Pamela

2015-01-01

This paper provides examples of Aid-to-Thought uses in urban decision making, classroom laboratory planning, and in a ship antiaircraft defense system. Aid-to-Thought modeling and simulations are tools students can use effectively in a STEM classroom while meeting Standards for Technological Literacy Benchmarks O and R. These projects prepare…

School System Simulation: An Effective Model for Educational Leaders.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson, Jorge O.

This study reviews the literature regarding the theoretical rationale for creating a computer-based school system simulation for educational leaders' use in problem solving and decision making. Like all social systems, educational systems are so complex that individuals are hard-pressed to consider all interrelated parts as a totality. A…

Application of bayesian networks to real-time flood risk estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrote, L.; Molina, M.; Blasco, G.

2003-04-01

This paper presents the application of a computational paradigm taken from the field of artificial intelligence - the bayesian network - to model the behaviour of hydrologic basins during floods. The final goal of this research is to develop representation techniques for hydrologic simulation models in order to define, develop and validate a mechanism, supported by a software environment, oriented to build decision models for the prediction and management of river floods in real time. The emphasis is placed on providing decision makers with tools to incorporate their knowledge of basin behaviour, usually formulated in terms of rainfall-runoff models, in the process of real-time decision making during floods. A rainfall-runoff model is only a step in the process of decision making. If a reliable rainfall forecast is available and the rainfall-runoff model is well calibrated, decisions can be based mainly on model results. However, in most practical situations, uncertainties in rainfall forecasts or model performance have to be incorporated in the decision process. The computation paradigm adopted for the simulation of hydrologic processes is the bayesian network. A bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph that represents causal influences between linked variables. Under this representation, uncertain qualitative variables are related through causal relations quantified with conditional probabilities. The solution algorithm allows the computation of the expected probability distribution of unknown variables conditioned to the observations. An approach to represent hydrologic processes by bayesian networks with temporal and spatial extensions is presented in this paper, together with a methodology for the development of bayesian models using results produced by deterministic hydrologic simulation models

The Use of Simulations in a Teacher Education Program: The Impact on Student Development. A Critical Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sottile, James M., Jr.; Brozik, Dallas

2004-01-01

Simulations and games have been used in education for decades, but most of this development has been in the areas of business and economics. Well-designed simulations and games have been shown to improve decision-making and critical thinking skills as well as teaching discipline-specific concepts. Active learning also helps students develop…

Applying fire spread simulators in New Zealand and Australia: Results from an international seminar

Treesearch

Tonja Opperman; Jim Gould; Mark Finney; Cordy Tymstra

2006-01-01

There is currently no spatial wildfire spread and growth simulation model used commonly across New Zealand or Australia. Fire management decision-making would be enhanced through the use of spatial fire simulators. Various groups from around the world met in January 2006 to evaluate the applicability of different spatial fire spread applications for common use in both...

IFC BIM-Based Methodology for Semi-Automated Building Energy Performance Simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bazjanac, Vladimir

2008-07-01

Building energy performance (BEP) simulation is still rarely used in building design, commissioning and operations. The process is too costly and too labor intensive, and it takes too long to deliver results. Its quantitative results are not reproducible due to arbitrary decisions and assumptions made in simulation model definition, and can be trusted only under special circumstances. A methodology to semi-automate BEP simulation preparation and execution makes this process much more effective. It incorporates principles of information science and aims to eliminate inappropriate human intervention that results in subjective and arbitrary decisions. This is achieved by automating every part ofmore » the BEP modeling and simulation process that can be automated, by relying on data from original sources, and by making any necessary data transformation rule-based and automated. This paper describes the new methodology and its relationship to IFC-based BIM and software interoperability. It identifies five steps that are critical to its implementation, and shows what part of the methodology can be applied today. The paper concludes with a discussion of application to simulation with EnergyPlus, and describes data transformation rules embedded in the new Geometry Simplification Tool (GST).« less

Simulation Credibility: Advances in Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mehta, Unmeel B. (Editor); Eklund, Dean R.; Romero, Vicente J.; Pearce, Jeffrey A.; Keim, Nicholas S.

2016-01-01

Decision makers and other users of simulations need to know quantified simulation credibility to make simulation-based critical decisions and effectively use simulations, respectively. The credibility of a simulation is quantified by its accuracy in terms of uncertainty, and the responsibility of establishing credibility lies with the creator of the simulation. In this volume, we present some state-of-the-art philosophies, principles, and frameworks. The contributing authors involved in this publication have been dedicated to advancing simulation credibility. They detail and provide examples of key advances over the last 10 years in the processes used to quantify simulation credibility: verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification. The philosophies and assessment methods presented here are anticipated to be useful to other technical communities conducting continuum physics-based simulations; for example, issues related to the establishment of simulation credibility in the discipline of propulsion are discussed. We envision that simulation creators will find this volume very useful to guide and assist them in quantitatively conveying the credibility of their simulations.

Risk Reduction and Training using Simulation Based Tools - 12180

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hall, Irin P.

2012-07-01

Process Modeling and Simulation (M and S) has been used for many years in manufacturing and similar domains, as part of an industrial engineer's tool box. Traditionally, however, this technique has been employed in small, isolated projects where models were created from scratch, often making it time and cost prohibitive. Newport News Shipbuilding (NNS) has recognized the value of this predictive technique and what it offers in terms of risk reduction, cost avoidance and on-schedule performance of highly complex work. To facilitate implementation, NNS has been maturing a process and the software to rapidly deploy and reuse M and Smore » based decision support tools in a variety of environments. Some examples of successful applications by NNS of this technique in the nuclear domain are a reactor refueling simulation based tool, a fuel handling facility simulation based tool and a tool for dynamic radiation exposure tracking. The next generation of M and S applications include expanding simulation based tools into immersive and interactive training. The applications discussed here take a tool box approach to creating simulation based decision support tools for maximum utility and return on investment. This approach involves creating a collection of simulation tools that can be used individually or integrated together for a larger application. The refueling simulation integrates with the fuel handling facility simulation to understand every aspect and dependency of the fuel handling evolutions. This approach translates nicely to other complex domains where real system experimentation is not feasible, such as nuclear fuel lifecycle and waste management. Similar concepts can also be applied to different types of simulation techniques. For example, a process simulation of liquid waste operations may be useful to streamline and plan operations, while a chemical model of the liquid waste composition is an important tool for making decisions with respect to waste disposition. Integrating these tools into a larger virtual system provides a tool for making larger strategic decisions. The key to integrating and creating these virtual environments is the software and the process used to build them. Although important steps in the direction of using simulation based tools for nuclear domain, the applications described here represent only a small cross section of possible benefits. The next generation of applications will, likely, focus on situational awareness and adaptive planning. Situational awareness refers to the ability to visualize in real time the state of operations. Some useful tools in this area are Geographic Information Systems (GIS), which help monitor and analyze geographically referenced information. Combined with such situational awareness capability, simulation tools can serve as the platform for adaptive planning tools. These are the tools that allow the decision maker to react to the changing environment in real time by synthesizing massive amounts of data into easily understood information. For the nuclear domains, this may mean creation of Virtual Nuclear Systems, from Virtual Waste Processing Plants to Virtual Nuclear Reactors. (authors)« less

Robust Decision Making in a Nonlinear World

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dougherty, Michael R.; Thomas, Rick P.

2012-01-01

The authors propose a general modeling framework called the general monotone model (GeMM), which allows one to model psychological phenomena that manifest as nonlinear relations in behavior data without the need for making (overly) precise assumptions about functional form. Using both simulated and real data, the authors illustrate that GeMM…

A Comparative Study of Exact versus Propensity Matching Techniques Using Monte Carlo Simulation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Itang'ata, Mukaria J. J.

2013-01-01

Often researchers face situations where comparative studies between two or more programs are necessary to make causal inferences for informed policy decision-making. Experimental designs employing randomization provide the strongest evidence for causal inferences. However, many pragmatic and ethical challenges may preclude the use of randomized…

A Land-Use-Planning Simulation Using Google Earth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bodzin, Alec M.; Cirucci, Lori

2009-01-01

Google Earth (GE) is proving to be a valuable tool in the science classroom for understanding the environment and making responsible environmental decisions (Bodzin 2008). GE provides learners with a dynamic mapping experience using a simple interface with a limited range of functions. This interface makes geospatial analysis accessible and…

What Makes a Simulation Useful

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eubank, S.G.

1999-10-12

Modern computers make possible a new blending of systems, man, and cybernetics in the detailed simulation of large sociotechnical systems. Several such simulations are currently under development at Los Alamos National Laboratory and elsewhere. When deployed, they will affect the daily lives of hundreds of millions of people and the allocation of billions of dollars. Whether they are deployed depends entirely on their perceived usefulness, which in turn depends on answers to the following: What kinds of questions does the simulation address and what kinds of solutions does it provide? How can the solutions be validated? Is simulation more cost-effectivemore » than other methods? Answers to these questions lead us to define a useful simulation as one which efficiently provides correct, robust estimates required by decision-making needs, together with well understood variability for the outcomes in hypothetical situations. This paper examines the implications of this criterion for the design o f TRANSIMS, a regional transportation network simulation, and by extension, for simulations of other sociotechnical systems.« less

Panel: Eco-informatics and decision making managing our natural resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gushing, J.B.; Wilson, T.; Martin, F.; Schnase, J.; Spengler, S.; Sugarbaker, L.; Pardo, T.

2006-01-01

This panel responds to the December 2004 workshop on Eco-Informatics and Decision Making [1], which addressed how informatics tools can help with better management of natural resources and policy making. The workshop was jointly sponsored by the NSF, NBII, NASA, and EPA. Workshop participants recommended that informatics research in four IT areas be funded: modeling and simulation, data quality, information integration and ontologies, and social and human aspects. Additionally, they recommend that funding agencies provide infrastructure and some changes in funding habits to assure cycles of innovation in the domain were addressed. This panel brings issues raised in that workshop to the attention of digital government researchers.

Health Science Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartsell, Horace C.

1970-01-01

Briefly describes several instructional techniques including computer aid simulation of the medical encounter, media-biased approaches for teaching doctor-patient relationships, and programed media for teaching decision-making to nursing students." (Author/AA)

Framing effects in medical situations: distinctions of attribute, goal and risky choice frames.

PubMed

Peng, Jiaxi; Jiang, Yuan; Miao, Danmin; Li, Rui; Xiao, Wei

2013-06-01

To verify whether three different framing effects (risky choice, attribute and goal) exist in simulated medical situations and to analyse any differences. Medical decision-making problems were established, relating to medical skill evaluation, patient compliance and a selection of treatment options. All problems were described in positive and negative frame conditions. Significantly more positive evaluations were made if the doctor's medical records were described as 'of 100 patients, 70 patients became better' compared with those described as 'of 100 patients, 30 patients didn't become better'. Doctor's advice described in a negative frame resulted in significantly more decisions to comply, compared with advice described in a positive frame. Treatment options described in terms of survival rates resulted in significantly more adventurous choices compared with options described in terms of mortality rates. Decision-making reversal appeared in the risky choice and attribute frames, but not the goal frame. Framing effects were shown to exist in simulated medical situations, but there were significant differences among the three kinds of such effects.

Decision-making after continuous wins or losses in a randomized guessing task: implications for how the prior selection results affect subsequent decision-making

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Human decision-making is often affected by prior selections and their outcomes, even in situations where decisions are independent and outcomes are unpredictable. Methods In this study, we created a task that simulated real-life non-strategic gambling to examine the effect of prior outcomes on subsequent decisions in a group of male college students. Results Behavioral performance showed that participants needed more time to react after continuous losses (LOSS) than continuous wins (WIN) and discontinuous outcomes (CONTROL). In addition, participants were more likely to repeat their selections in both WIN and LOSS conditions. Functional MRI data revealed that decisions in WINs were associated with increased activation in the mesolimbic pathway, but decreased activation in the inferior frontal gyrus relative to LOSS. Increased prefrontal cortical activation was observed during LOSS relative to WIN and CONTROL conditions. Conclusion Taken together, the behavioral and neuroimaging findings suggest that participants tended to repeat previous selections during LOSS trials, a pattern resembling the gambler’s fallacy. However, during WIN trials, participants tended to follow their previous lucky decisions, like the ‘hot hand’ fallacy. PMID:24708897

Simulations in Cyber-Security: A Review of Cognitive Modeling of Network Attackers, Defenders, and Users.

PubMed

Veksler, Vladislav D; Buchler, Norbou; Hoffman, Blaine E; Cassenti, Daniel N; Sample, Char; Sugrim, Shridat

2018-01-01

Computational models of cognitive processes may be employed in cyber-security tools, experiments, and simulations to address human agency and effective decision-making in keeping computational networks secure. Cognitive modeling can addresses multi-disciplinary cyber-security challenges requiring cross-cutting approaches over the human and computational sciences such as the following: (a) adversarial reasoning and behavioral game theory to predict attacker subjective utilities and decision likelihood distributions, (b) human factors of cyber tools to address human system integration challenges, estimation of defender cognitive states, and opportunities for automation, (c) dynamic simulations involving attacker, defender, and user models to enhance studies of cyber epidemiology and cyber hygiene, and (d) training effectiveness research and training scenarios to address human cyber-security performance, maturation of cyber-security skill sets, and effective decision-making. Models may be initially constructed at the group-level based on mean tendencies of each subject's subgroup, based on known statistics such as specific skill proficiencies, demographic characteristics, and cultural factors. For more precise and accurate predictions, cognitive models may be fine-tuned to each individual attacker, defender, or user profile, and updated over time (based on recorded behavior) via techniques such as model tracing and dynamic parameter fitting.

FORBEEF: A Forage-Livestock System Computer Model Used as a Teaching Aid for Decision Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stringer, W. C.; And Others

1987-01-01

Describes the development of a computer simulation model of forage-beef production systems, which is intended to incorporate soil, forage, and animal decisions into an enterprise scenario. Produces a summary of forage production and livestock needs. Cites positive assessment of the program's value by participants in inservice training workshops.…

Professional Competence and Intuitive Decision Making: A Simulation Study in the Domain of Emergency Medicine

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harteis, Christian; Morgenthaler, Barbara; Kugler, Christine; Ittner, Karl-Peter; Roth, Gabriel; Graf, Bernhard

2012-01-01

Intuition presents as a crucial component of professional competence for many occupations, including emergency physicians because many of their decisions have to be made quickly. When arriving at the scene of an accident, they promptly have to assess the circumstances and initiate immediate life-saving measures without opportunities for deep…

Ranking of Business Process Simulation Software Tools with DEX/QQ Hierarchical Decision Model.

PubMed

Damij, Nadja; Boškoski, Pavle; Bohanec, Marko; Mileva Boshkoska, Biljana

2016-01-01

The omnipresent need for optimisation requires constant improvements of companies' business processes (BPs). Minimising the risk of inappropriate BP being implemented is usually performed by simulating the newly developed BP under various initial conditions and "what-if" scenarios. An effectual business process simulations software (BPSS) is a prerequisite for accurate analysis of an BP. Characterisation of an BPSS tool is a challenging task due to the complex selection criteria that includes quality of visual aspects, simulation capabilities, statistical facilities, quality reporting etc. Under such circumstances, making an optimal decision is challenging. Therefore, various decision support models are employed aiding the BPSS tool selection. The currently established decision support models are either proprietary or comprise only a limited subset of criteria, which affects their accuracy. Addressing this issue, this paper proposes a new hierarchical decision support model for ranking of BPSS based on their technical characteristics by employing DEX and qualitative to quantitative (QQ) methodology. Consequently, the decision expert feeds the required information in a systematic and user friendly manner. There are three significant contributions of the proposed approach. Firstly, the proposed hierarchical model is easily extendible for adding new criteria in the hierarchical structure. Secondly, a fully operational decision support system (DSS) tool that implements the proposed hierarchical model is presented. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical model is assessed by comparing the resulting rankings of BPSS with respect to currently available results.

The solution of target assignment problem in command and control decision-making behaviour simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ni; Huai, Wenqing; Wang, Shaodan

2017-08-01

C2 (command and control) has been understood to be a critical military component to meet an increasing demand for rapid information gathering and real-time decision-making in a dynamically changing battlefield environment. In this article, to improve a C2 behaviour model's reusability and interoperability, a behaviour modelling framework was proposed to specify a C2 model's internal modules and a set of interoperability interfaces based on the C-BML (coalition battle management language). WTA (weapon target assignment) is a typical C2 autonomous decision-making behaviour modelling problem. Different from most WTA problem descriptions, here sensors were considered to be available resources of detection and the relationship constraints between weapons and sensors were also taken into account, which brought it much closer to actual application. A modified differential evolution (MDE) algorithm was developed to solve this high-dimension optimisation problem and obtained an optimal assignment plan with high efficiency. In case study, we built a simulation system to validate the proposed C2 modelling framework and interoperability interface specification. Also, a new optimisation solution was used to solve the WTA problem efficiently and successfully.

Robust Decision Making to Support Water Quality Climate Adaptation: a Case Study in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischbach, J. R.; Lempert, R. J.; Molina-Perez, E.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), together with state and local partners, develops watershed implementation plans designed to meet water quality standards. Climate uncertainty, along with uncertainty about future land use changes or the performance of water quality best management practices (BMPs), may make it difficult for these implementation plans to meet water quality goals. In this effort, we explored how decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) methods such as Robust Decision Making (RDM) could help USEPA and its partners develop implementation plans that are more robust to future uncertainty. The study focuses on one part of the Chesapeake Bay watershed, the Patuxent River, which is 2,479 sq km in area, highly urbanized, and has a rapidly growing population. We simulated the contribution of stormwater contaminants from the Patuxent to the overall Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) for the Chesapeake Bay under multiple scenarios reflecting climate and other uncertainties. Contaminants considered included nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads. The assessment included a large set of scenario simulations using the USEPA Chesapeake Bay Program's Phase V watershed model. Uncertainties represented in the analysis included 18 downscaled climate projections (based on 6 general circulation models and 3 emissions pathways), 12 land use scenarios with different population projections and development patterns, and alternative assumptions about BMP performance standards and efficiencies associated with different suites of stormwater BMPs. Finally, we developed cost estimates for each of the performance standards and compared cost to TMDL performance as a key tradeoff for future water quality management decisions. In this talk, we describe how this research can help inform climate-related decision support at USEPA's Chesapeake Bay Program, and more generally how RDM and other DMDU methods can support improved water quality management under climate uncertainty.

A model study on the circuit mechanism underlying decision-making in Drosophila.

PubMed

Wu, Zhihua; Guo, Aike

2011-05-01

Previous elegant experiments in a flight simulator showed that conditioned Drosophila is able to make a clear-cut decision to avoid potential danger. When confronted with conflicting visual cues, the relative saliency of two competing cues is found to be a sensory ruler for flies to judge which cue should be used for decision-making. Further genetic manipulations and immunohistological analysis revealed that the dopamine system and mushroom bodies are indispensable for such a clear-cut or nonlinear decision. The neural circuit mechanism, however, is far from being clear. In this paper, we adopt a computational modeling approach to investigate how different brain areas and the dopamine system work together to drive a fly to make a decision. By developing a systems-level neural network, a two-pathway circuit is proposed. Besides a direct pathway from a feature binding area to the motor center, another connects two areas via the mushroom body, a target of dopamine release. A raised dopamine level is hypothesized to be induced by complex choice tasks and to enhance lateral inhibition and steepen the units' response gain in the mushroom body. Simulations show that training helps to assign values to formerly neutral features. For a circuit model with a blocked mushroom body, the direct pathway passes all alternatives to the motor center without changing original values, giving rise to a simple choice characterized by a linear choice curve. With respect to an intact circuit, enhanced lateral inhibition dependent on dopamine critically promotes competition between alternatives, turning the linear- into nonlinear choice behavior. Results account well for experimental data, supporting the reasonableness of model working hypotheses. Several testable predictions are made for future studies. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

MDCT quantification is the dominant parameter in decision–making regarding chest tube drainage for stable patients with traumatic pneumothorax

PubMed Central

Cai, Wenli; Lee, June-Goo; Fikry, Karim; Yoshida, Hiroyuki; Novelline, Robert; de Moya, Marc

2013-01-01

It is commonly believed that the size of a pneumothorax is an important determinant of treatment decision, in particular regarding whether chest tube drainage (CTD) is required. However, the volumetric quantification of pneumothoraces has not routinely been performed in clinics. In this paper, we introduced an automated computer-aided volumetry (CAV) scheme for quantification of volume of pneumothoraces in chest multi-detect CT (MDCT) images. Moreover, we investigated the impact of accurate volume of pneumothoraces in the improvement of the performance in decision-making regarding CTD in the management of traumatic pneumothoraces. For this purpose, an occurrence frequency map was calculated for quantitative analysis of the importance of each clinical parameter in the decision-making regarding CTD by a computer simulation of decision-making using a genetic algorithm (GA) and a support vector machine (SVM). A total of 14 clinical parameters, including volume of pneumothorax calculated by our CAV scheme, was collected as parameters available for decision-making. The results showed that volume was the dominant parameter in decision-making regarding CTD, with an occurrence frequency value of 1.00. The results also indicated that the inclusion of volume provided the best performance that was statistically significant compared to the other tests in which volume was excluded from the clinical parameters. This study provides the scientific evidence for the application of CAV scheme in MDCT volumetric quantification of pneumothoraces in the management of clinically stable chest trauma patients with traumatic pneumothorax. PMID:22560899

MDCT quantification is the dominant parameter in decision-making regarding chest tube drainage for stable patients with traumatic pneumothorax.

PubMed

Cai, Wenli; Lee, June-Goo; Fikry, Karim; Yoshida, Hiroyuki; Novelline, Robert; de Moya, Marc

2012-07-01

It is commonly believed that the size of a pneumothorax is an important determinant of treatment decision, in particular regarding whether chest tube drainage (CTD) is required. However, the volumetric quantification of pneumothoraces has not routinely been performed in clinics. In this paper, we introduced an automated computer-aided volumetry (CAV) scheme for quantification of volume of pneumothoraces in chest multi-detect CT (MDCT) images. Moreover, we investigated the impact of accurate volume of pneumothoraces in the improvement of the performance in decision-making regarding CTD in the management of traumatic pneumothoraces. For this purpose, an occurrence frequency map was calculated for quantitative analysis of the importance of each clinical parameter in the decision-making regarding CTD by a computer simulation of decision-making using a genetic algorithm (GA) and a support vector machine (SVM). A total of 14 clinical parameters, including volume of pneumothorax calculated by our CAV scheme, was collected as parameters available for decision-making. The results showed that volume was the dominant parameter in decision-making regarding CTD, with an occurrence frequency value of 1.00. The results also indicated that the inclusion of volume provided the best performance that was statistically significant compared to the other tests in which volume was excluded from the clinical parameters. This study provides the scientific evidence for the application of CAV scheme in MDCT volumetric quantification of pneumothoraces in the management of clinically stable chest trauma patients with traumatic pneumothorax. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Attentional Filter Training but Not Memory Training Improves Decision-Making.

PubMed

Schmicker, Marlen; Müller, Patrick; Schwefel, Melanie; Müller, Notger G

2017-01-01

Decision-making has a high practical relevance for daily performance. Its relation to other cognitive abilities such as executive control and memory is not fully understood. Here we asked whether training of either attentional filtering or memory storage would influence decision-making as indexed by repetitive assessments of the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). The IGT was developed to assess and simulate real-life decision-making (Bechara et al., 2005). In this task, participants gain or lose money by developing advantageous or disadvantageous decision strategies. On five consecutive days we trained 29 healthy young adults (20-30 years) either in working memory (WM) storage or attentional filtering and measured their IGT scores after each training session. During memory training (MT) subjects performed a computerized delayed match-to-sample task where two displays of bars were presented in succession. During filter training (FT) participants had to indicate whether two simultaneously presented displays of bars matched or not. Whereas in MT the relevant target stimuli stood alone, in FT the targets were embedded within irrelevant distractors (bars in a different color). All subjects within each group improved their performance in the trained cognitive task. For the IGT, we observed an increase over time in the amount of money gained in the FT group only. Decision-making seems to be influenced more by training to filter out irrelevant distractors than by training to store items in WM. Selective attention could be responsible for the previously noted relationship between IGT performance and WM and is therefore more important for enhancing efficiency in decision-making.

History matching through dynamic decision-making

PubMed Central

Maschio, Célio; Santos, Antonio Alberto; Schiozer, Denis; Rocha, Anderson

2017-01-01

History matching is the process of modifying the uncertain attributes of a reservoir model to reproduce the real reservoir performance. It is a classical reservoir engineering problem and plays an important role in reservoir management since the resulting models are used to support decisions in other tasks such as economic analysis and production strategy. This work introduces a dynamic decision-making optimization framework for history matching problems in which new models are generated based on, and guided by, the dynamic analysis of the data of available solutions. The optimization framework follows a ‘learning-from-data’ approach, and includes two optimizer components that use machine learning techniques, such as unsupervised learning and statistical analysis, to uncover patterns of input attributes that lead to good output responses. These patterns are used to support the decision-making process while generating new, and better, history matched solutions. The proposed framework is applied to a benchmark model (UNISIM-I-H) based on the Namorado field in Brazil. Results show the potential the dynamic decision-making optimization framework has for improving the quality of history matching solutions using a substantial smaller number of simulations when compared with a previous work on the same benchmark. PMID:28582413

Simulation of human decision making

DOEpatents

Forsythe, J Chris [Sandia Park, NM; Speed, Ann E [Albuquerque, NM; Jordan, Sabina E [Albuquerque, NM; Xavier, Patrick G [Albuquerque, NM

2008-05-06

A method for computer emulation of human decision making defines a plurality of concepts related to a domain and a plurality of situations related to the domain, where each situation is a combination of at least two of the concepts. Each concept and situation is represented in the computer as an oscillator output, and each situation and concept oscillator output is distinguishable from all other oscillator outputs. Information is input to the computer representative of detected concepts, and the computer compares the detected concepts with the stored situations to determine if a situation has occurred.

Acute Exposure to Low-to-Moderate Carbon Dioxide Levels and Submariner Decision Making.

PubMed

Rodeheffer, Christopher D; Chabal, Sarah; Clarke, John M; Fothergill, David M

2018-06-01

Submarines routinely operate with higher levels of ambient carbon dioxide (CO2) (i.e., 2000 - 5000 ppm) than what is typically considered normal (i.e., 400 - 600 ppm). Although significant cognitive impairments are rarely reported at these elevated CO2 levels, recent studies using the Strategic Management Simulation (SMS) test have found impairments in decision-making performance during acute CO2 exposure at levels as low as 1000 ppm. This is a potential concern for submarine operations, as personnel regularly make mission-critical decisions that affect the safety and efficiency of the vessel and its crew while exposed to similar levels of CO2. The objective of this study was to determine if submariner decision-making performance is impacted by acute exposure to levels of CO2 routinely present in the submarine atmosphere during sea patrols. Using a subject-blinded balanced design, 36 submarine-qualified sailors were randomly assigned to receive 1 of 3 CO2 exposure conditions (600, 2500, or 15,000 ppm). After a 45-min atmospheric acclimation period, participants completed an 80-min computer-administered SMS test as a measure of decision making. There were no significant differences for any of the nine SMS measures of decision making between the CO2 exposure conditions. In contrast to recent research demonstrating cognitive deficits on the SMS test in students and professional-grade office workers, we were unable to replicate this effect in a submariner population-even with acute CO2 exposures more than an order of magnitude greater than those used in previous studies that demonstrated such effects.Rodeheffer CD, Chabal S, Clarke JM, Fothergill DM. Acute exposure to low-to-moderate carbon dioxide levels and submariner decision making. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2018; 89(6):520-525.

Multiscale modelling and analysis of collective decision making in swarm robotics.

PubMed

Vigelius, Matthias; Meyer, Bernd; Pascoe, Geoffrey

2014-01-01

We present a unified approach to describing certain types of collective decision making in swarm robotics that bridges from a microscopic individual-based description to aggregate properties. Our approach encompasses robot swarm experiments, microscopic and probabilistic macroscopic-discrete simulations as well as an analytic mathematical model. Following up on previous work, we identify the symmetry parameter, a measure of the progress of the swarm towards a decision, as a fundamental integrated swarm property and formulate its time evolution as a continuous-time Markov process. Contrary to previous work, which justified this approach only empirically and a posteriori, we justify it from first principles and derive hard limits on the parameter regime in which it is applicable.

Dynamic afferent synapses to decision-making networks improve performance in tasks requiring stimulus associations and discriminations

PubMed Central

Bourjaily, Mark A.

2012-01-01

Animals must often make opposing responses to similar complex stimuli. Multiple sensory inputs from such stimuli combine to produce stimulus-specific patterns of neural activity. It is the differences between these activity patterns, even when small, that provide the basis for any differences in behavioral response. In the present study, we investigate three tasks with differing degrees of overlap in the inputs, each with just two response possibilities. We simulate behavioral output via winner-takes-all activity in one of two pools of neurons forming a biologically based decision-making layer. The decision-making layer receives inputs either in a direct stimulus-dependent manner or via an intervening recurrent network of neurons that form the associative layer, whose activity helps distinguish the stimuli of each task. We show that synaptic facilitation of synapses to the decision-making layer improves performance in these tasks, robustly increasing accuracy and speed of responses across multiple configurations of network inputs. Conversely, we find that synaptic depression worsens performance. In a linearly nonseparable task with exclusive-or logic, the benefit of synaptic facilitation lies in its superlinear transmission: effective synaptic strength increases with presynaptic firing rate, which enhances the already present superlinearity of presynaptic firing rate as a function of stimulus-dependent input. In linearly separable single-stimulus discrimination tasks, we find that facilitating synapses are always beneficial because synaptic facilitation always enhances any differences between inputs. Thus we predict that for optimal decision-making accuracy and speed, synapses from sensory or associative areas to decision-making or premotor areas should be facilitating. PMID:22457467

The integration of quantitative information with an intelligent decision support system for residential energy retrofits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, Yunjeong

The purpose of this research is to support the development of an intelligent Decision Support System (DSS) by integrating quantitative information with expert knowledge in order to facilitate effective retrofit decision-making. To achieve this goal, the Energy Retrofit Decision Process Framework is analyzed. Expert system shell software, a retrofit measure cost database, and energy simulation software are needed for developing the DSS; Exsys Corvid, the NREM database and BEopt were chosen for implementing an integration model. This integration model demonstrates the holistic function of a residential energy retrofit system for existing homes, by providing a prioritized list of retrofit measures with cost information, energy simulation and expert advice. The users, such as homeowners and energy auditors, can acquire all of the necessary retrofit information from this unified system without having to explore several separate systems. The integration model plays the role of a prototype for the finalized intelligent decision support system. It implements all of the necessary functions for the finalized DSS, including integration of the database, energy simulation and expert knowledge.

Simulated International Politics: Classroom Exercises.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, Robert M.; And Others

The manual consists of six easy to use simulation exercises for foreign relation classes at the secondary level. The games are designed to teach decision making skills, to sensitize students to the manner in which Americans have come to view the world, to help students understand the need to manage problems before they become too severe, and to…

Effects of Crew Resource Management Training on Medical Errors in a Simulated Prehospital Setting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carhart, Elliot D.

2012-01-01

This applied dissertation investigated the effect of crew resource management (CRM) training on medical errors in a simulated prehospital setting. Specific areas addressed by this program included situational awareness, decision making, task management, teamwork, and communication. This study is believed to be the first investigation of CRM…

Handbook of Games and Simulation Exercises.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gibbs, G. I., Ed.

Nearly 2,000 games and simulations are listed along with details of their content, suppliers, and audience. The games range in level from those designed to teach young children to read, to those intended for postgraduate study of political decision-making. The subject range is equally wide. Management topics convered include: industrial relations,…

Adapting the RoboCup Simulation for Autonomous Vehicle Team Information Fusion and Decision Making Experimentation

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

researchers outside the government to produce the kinds of algorithms and software that would easily transition into solutions for teams of autonomous ... vehicles for military scenarios. To accomplish this, we began modifying the RoboCup soccer game step-by-step to incorporate rules that simulate these

Team-Based Simulations: Learning Ethical Conduct in Teacher Trainee Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shapira-Lishchinsky, Orly

2013-01-01

This study aimed to identify the learning aspects of team-based simulations (TBS) through the analysis of ethical incidents experienced by 50 teacher trainees. A four-dimensional model emerged: learning to make decisions in a "supportive-forgiving" environment; learning to develop standards of care; learning to reduce misconduct; and learning to…

Designing High Fidelity Simulation to Maximize Student Registered Nursing Decision-Making Ability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deckers, Cathleen

2011-01-01

The current healthcare environment is a complex system of patients, procedures, and equipment that strives to deliver safe and effective medical care. High fidelity simulation provides healthcare educators with a tool to create safety conscious practitioners utilizing an environment that replicates practice without risk to patients. Using HFS…

Teacher's Guide for "Tightrope," a Simulation Game in Economics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baskind, Larry; And Others

"Tightrope" is a simulation based on economic stability and growth in a country. Several small groups of students, acting as Economic Advisory Councils, make fiscal and monetary policy decisions for their country based on their knowledge of business cycles, monetary policy, and fiscal policy. In each of the four rounds the Advisory Councils study…

Safety evaluation of driver cognitive failures and driving errors on right-turn filtering movement at signalized road intersections based on Fuzzy Cellular Automata (FCA) model.

PubMed

Chai, Chen; Wong, Yiik Diew; Wang, Xuesong

2017-07-01

This paper proposes a simulation-based approach to estimate safety impact of driver cognitive failures and driving errors. Fuzzy Logic, which involves linguistic terms and uncertainty, is incorporated with Cellular Automata model to simulate decision-making process of right-turn filtering movement at signalized intersections. Simulation experiments are conducted to estimate the relationships between cognitive failures and driving errors with safety performance. Simulation results show Different types of cognitive failures are found to have varied relationship with driving errors and safety performance. For right-turn filtering movement, cognitive failures are more likely to result in driving errors with denser conflicting traffic stream. Moreover, different driving errors are found to have different safety impacts. The study serves to provide a novel approach to linguistically assess cognitions and replicate decision-making procedures of the individual driver. Compare to crash analysis, the proposed FCA model allows quantitative estimation of particular cognitive failures, and the impact of cognitions on driving errors and safety performance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decision Accuracy in Computer-Mediated versus Face-to-Face Decision-Making Teams.

PubMed

Hedlund; Ilgen; Hollenbeck

1998-10-01

Changes in the way organizations are structured and advances in communication technologies are two factors that have altered the conditions under which group decisions are made. Decisions are increasingly made by teams that have a hierarchical structure and whose members have different areas of expertise. In addition, many decisions are no longer made via strictly face-to-face interaction. The present study examines the effects of two modes of communication (face-to-face or computer-mediated) on the accuracy of teams' decisions. The teams are characterized by a hierarchical structure and their members differ in expertise consistent with the framework outlined in the Multilevel Theory of team decision making presented by Hollenbeck, Ilgen, Sego, Hedlund, Major, and Phillips (1995). Sixty-four four-person teams worked for 3 h on a computer simulation interacting either face-to-face (FtF) or over a computer network. The communication mode had mixed effects on team processes in that members of FtF teams were better informed and made recommendations that were more predictive of the correct team decision, but leaders of CM teams were better able to differentiate staff members on the quality of their decisions. Controlling for the negative impact of FtF communication on staff member differentiation increased the beneficial effect of the FtF mode on overall decision making accuracy. Copyright 1998 Academic Press.

Supporting Collaboration with Technology: Does Shared Cognition Lead to Co-Regulation in Medicine?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lajoie, Susanne P.; Lu, Jingyan

2012-01-01

The theoretical distinctions between metacognition, self-regulation and self-regulated learning are often blurred which makes the definition of co-regulation in group learning situations even more difficult. We have started to explore co-regulation in the context of decision making in simulated emergencies where medical teams work together to…

Decision Making In A High-Tech World: Automation Bias and Countermeasures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mosier, Kathleen L.; Skitka, Linda J.; Burdick, Mark R.; Heers, Susan T.; Rosekind, Mark R. (Technical Monitor)

1996-01-01

Automated decision aids and decision support systems have become essential tools in many high-tech environments. In aviation, for example, flight management systems computers not only fly the aircraft, but also calculate fuel efficient paths, detect and diagnose system malfunctions and abnormalities, and recommend or carry out decisions. Air Traffic Controllers will soon be utilizing decision support tools to help them predict and detect potential conflicts and to generate clearances. Other fields as disparate as nuclear power plants and medical diagnostics are similarly becoming more and more automated. Ideally, the combination of human decision maker and automated decision aid should result in a high-performing team, maximizing the advantages of additional cognitive and observational power in the decision-making process. In reality, however, the presence of these aids often short-circuits the way that even very experienced decision makers have traditionally handled tasks and made decisions, and introduces opportunities for new decision heuristics and biases. Results of recent research investigating the use of automated aids have indicated the presence of automation bias, that is, errors made when decision makers rely on automated cues as a heuristic replacement for vigilant information seeking and processing. Automation commission errors, i.e., errors made when decision makers inappropriately follow an automated directive, or automation omission errors, i.e., errors made when humans fail to take action or notice a problem because an automated aid fails to inform them, can result from this tendency. Evidence of the tendency to make automation-related omission and commission errors has been found in pilot self reports, in studies using pilots in flight simulations, and in non-flight decision making contexts with student samples. Considerable research has found that increasing social accountability can successfully ameliorate a broad array of cognitive biases and resultant errors. To what extent these effects generalize to performance situations is not yet empirically established. The two studies to be presented represent concurrent efforts, with student and professional pilot samples, to determine the effects of accountability pressures on automation bias and on the verification of the accurate functioning of automated aids. Students (Experiment 1) and commercial pilots (Experiment 2) performed simulated flight tasks using automated aids. In both studies, participants who perceived themselves as accountable for their strategies of interaction with the automation were significantly more likely to verify its correctness, and committed significantly fewer automation-related errors than those who did not report this perception.

A conceptual evolutionary aseismic decision support framework for hospitals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Yufeng; Dargush, Gary F.; Shao, Xiaoyun

2012-12-01

In this paper, aconceptual evolutionary framework for aseismic decision support for hospitalsthat attempts to integrate a range of engineering and sociotechnical models is presented. Genetic algorithms are applied to find the optimal decision sets. A case study is completed to demonstrate how the frameworkmay applytoa specific hospital.The simulations show that the proposed evolutionary decision support framework is able to discover robust policy sets in either uncertain or fixed environments. The framework also qualitatively identifies some of the characteristicbehavior of the critical care organization. Thus, by utilizing the proposedframework, the decision makers are able to make more informed decisions, especially toenhance the seismic safety of the hospitals.

A Comprehensive, Simulation-Based Approach to Teaching Clinical Skills: The Medical Students’ Perspective

PubMed Central

Evans, Leigh V.; Crimmins, Ashley C.; Bonz, James W.; Gusberg, Richard J.; Tsyrulnik, Alina; Dziura, James D.; Dodge, Kelly L.

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine if third-year medical students participating in a mandatory 12-week simulation course perceived improvement in decision-making, communication, and teamwork skills. Students participated in or observed 24 acute emergency scenarios. At 4-week intervals, students completed 0-10 point Likert scale questionnaires evaluating the curriculum and role of team leader. Linear contrasts were used to examine changes in outcomes. P-values were Bonferroni-corrected for multiple pairwise comparisons. Student evaluations (n = 96) demonstrated increases from week 4 to 12 in educational value (p = 0.006), decision-making (p < 0.001), communication (p = 0.02), teamwork (p = 0.01), confidence in management (p < 0.001), and translation to clinical experience (p < 0.001). Regarding the team leader role, students reported a decrease in stress (p = 0.001) and increase in ability to facilitate team function (p < 0.001) and awareness of team building (p = <0.001). Ratings demonstrate a positive impact of simulation on both clinical management skills and team leadership skills. A simulation curriculum can enhance the ability to manage acute clinical problems and translates well to the clinical experience. These positive perceptions increase as the exposure to simulation increases. PMID:25506290

Nurses' Responses and Reactions to an Emergent Pediatric Simulation Exercise.

PubMed

Hoffman, Kenneth; von Sadovszky, Victoria

Pediatric nurses' responses and reactions in emergent simulations are understudied. Using authority gradient theory as a guide, the purpose of this study was to examine nurses' reactions during an emergency simulation exercise when directed to give an incorrect medication dose. Ten groups of noncritical care nurses were videotaped from the beginning of the simulation through debriefing. Although errors were made during the simulation event, all groups responded correctly during debriefing, indicating that authority gradient may play a role in clinical decision-making.

Cognitive Task Analysis of Business Jet Pilots' Weather Flying Behaviors: Preliminary Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Latorella, Kara; Pliske, Rebecca; Hutton, Robert; Chrenka, Jason

2001-01-01

This report presents preliminary findings from a cognitive task analysis (CTA) of business aviation piloting. Results describe challenging weather-related aviation decisions and the information and cues used to support these decisions. Further, these results demonstrate the role of expertise in business aviation decision-making in weather flying, and how weather information is acquired and assessed for reliability. The challenging weather scenarios and novice errors identified in the results provide the basis for experimental scenarios and dependent measures to be used in future flight simulation evaluations of candidate aviation weather information systems. Finally, we analyzed these preliminary results to recommend design and training interventions to improve business aviation decision-making with weather information. The primary objective of this report is to present these preliminary findings and to document the extended CTA methodology used to elicit and represent expert business aviator decision-making with weather information. These preliminary findings will be augmented with results from additional subjects using this methodology. A summary of the complete results, absent the detailed treatment of methodology provided in this report, will be documented in a separate publication.

Contextual information influences diagnosis accuracy and decision making in simulated emergency medicine emergencies.

PubMed

McRobert, Allistair Paul; Causer, Joe; Vassiliadis, John; Watterson, Leonie; Kwan, James; Williams, Mark A

2013-06-01

It is well documented that adaptations in cognitive processes with increasing skill levels support decision making in multiple domains. We examined skill-based differences in cognitive processes in emergency medicine physicians, and whether performance was significantly influenced by the removal of contextual information related to a patient's medical history. Skilled (n=9) and less skilled (n=9) emergency medicine physicians responded to high-fidelity simulated scenarios under high- and low-context information conditions. Skilled physicians demonstrated higher diagnostic accuracy irrespective of condition, and were less affected by the removal of context-specific information compared with less skilled physicians. The skilled physicians generated more options, and selected better quality options during diagnostic reasoning compared with less skilled counterparts. These cognitive processes were active irrespective of the level of context-specific information presented, although high-context information enhanced understanding of the patients' symptoms resulting in higher diagnostic accuracy. Our findings have implications for scenario design and the manipulation of contextual information during simulation training.

The simulated gambling paradigm applied to young adults: an examination of university students' performance.

PubMed

Caroselli, Jerome Silvio; Hiscock, Merrill; Scheibel, Randall S; Ingram, Fred

2006-01-01

Simulated gambling tasks have become popular as sensitive tools for identifying individuals with real-time impairment in decision making. Various clinical samples, especially patients with damage to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, perform poorly on these tasks. The patients typically persist in choosing risky (disadvantageous) card decks instead of switching to safer (advantageous) decks. In terms of Damasio's (1994) somatic marker hypothesis, the poor performance stems from defective integration of emotional and rational aspects of decision making. Less information is available about performance in healthy populations, particularly young adults. After administering a computerized gambling task to 141 university students, we found that individuals in this population also tend to prefer disadvantageous decks to advantageous decks. The results indicate that performance is governed primarily by the frequency of positive outcomes on a trial-by-trial basis rather than by the accumulation of winnings in the longer term. These findings are discussed in light of the cognitive literature pertaining to the simulated gambling paradigm.

A multimetric, map-aware routing protocol for VANETs in urban areas.

PubMed

Tripp-Barba, Carolina; Urquiza-Aguiar, Luis; Aguilar Igartua, Mónica; Rebollo-Monedero, David; de la Cruz Llopis, Luis J; Mezher, Ahmad Mohamad; Aguilar-Calderón, José Alfonso

2014-01-28

In recent years, the general interest in routing for vehicular ad hoc networks (VANETs) has increased notably. Many proposals have been presented to improve the behavior of the routing decisions in these very changeable networks. In this paper, we propose a new routing protocol for VANETs that uses four different metrics. which are the distance to destination, the vehicles' density, the vehicles' trajectory and the available bandwidth, making use of the information retrieved by the sensors of the vehicle, in order to make forwarding decisions, minimizing packet losses and packet delay. Through simulation, we compare our proposal to other protocols, such as AODV (Ad hoc On-Demand Distance Vector), GPSR (Greedy Perimeter Stateless Routing), I-GPSR (Improvement GPSR) and to our previous proposal, GBSR-B (Greedy Buffer Stateless Routing Building-aware). Besides, we present a performance evaluation of the individual importance of each metric to make forwarding decisions. Experimental results show that our proposed forwarding decision outperforms existing solutions in terms of packet delivery.

Basic physiological systems indicator's informative assessment for children and adolescents obesity diagnosis tasks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marukhina, O. V.; Berestneva, O. G.; Emelyanova, Yu A.; Romanchukov, S. V.; Petrova, L.; Lombardo, C.; Kozlova, N. V.

2018-05-01

The healthcare computerization creates opportunities to the clinical decision support system development. In the course of diagnosis, doctor manipulates a considerable amount of data and makes a decision in the context of uncertainty basing upon the first-hand experience and knowledge. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that the knowledge scope in medicine is incrementally growing, but the decision-making time does not increase. The amount of medical malpractice is growing and it leads to various negative effects, even the mortality rate increase. IT-solution's development for clinical purposes is one of the most promising and efficient ways to prevent these effects. That is why the efforts of many IT specialists are directed to the doctor's heuristics simulating software or expert-based medical decision-making algorithms development. Thus, the objective of this study is to develop techniques and approaches for the body physiological system's informative value assessment index for the obesity degree evaluation based on the diagnostic findings.

Distributed Web-Based Expert System for Launch Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bardina, Jorge E.; Thirumalainambi, Rajkumar

2005-01-01

The simulation and modeling of launch operations is based on a representation of the organization of the operations suitable to experiment of the physical, procedural, software, hardware and psychological aspects of space flight operations. The virtual test bed consists of a weather expert system to advice on the effect of weather to the launch operations. It also simulates toxic gas dispersion model, and the risk impact on human health. Since all modeling and simulation is based on the internet, it could reduce the cost of operations of launch and range safety by conducting extensive research before a particular launch. Each model has an independent decision making module to derive the best decision for launch.

The analysis of the pilot's cognitive and decision processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Curry, R. E.

1975-01-01

Articles are presented on pilot performance in zero-visibility precision approach, failure detection by pilots during automatic landing, experiments in pilot decision-making during simulated low visibility approaches, a multinomial maximum likelihood program, and a random search algorithm for laboratory computers. Other topics discussed include detection of system failures in multi-axis tasks and changes in pilot workload during an instrument landing.

Progress towards and barriers to implementation of a risk framework for US federal wildland fire policy and decision making

Treesearch

David C. Calkin; Mark A. Finney; Alan A. Ager; Matthew P. Thompson; Krista M. Gebert

2011-01-01

In this paper we review progress towards the implementation of a riskmanagement framework for US federal wildland fire policy and operations. We first describe new developments in wildfire simulation technology that catalyzed the development of risk-based decision support systems for strategic wildfire management. These systems include new analytical methods to measure...

Agent-based Decision Support System for the Third Generation Distributed Dynamic Decision-making (DDD-III) Simulator

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-06-01

suitable form of organizational adaptation is effective organizational diagnosis and analysis. The organizational diagnosis and analysis involve...related to the mission environment, organizational structure, and strategy is imperative for an effective and efficient organizational diagnosis . The...not easily articulated nor expressed otherwise. These displays are crucial to facilitate effective organizational diagnosis and analysis, and

Integrated Modeling and Simulation Verification, Validation, and Accreditation Strategy for Exploration Systems Mission Directorate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hale, Joseph P.

2006-01-01

Models and simulations (M&S) are critical resources in the exploration of space. They support program management, systems engineering, integration, analysis, test, and operations and provide critical information and data supporting key analyses and decisions (technical, cost and schedule). Consequently, there is a clear need to establish a solid understanding of M&S strengths and weaknesses, and the bounds within which they can credibly support decision-making. Their usage requires the implementation of a rigorous approach to verification, validation and accreditation (W&A) and establishment of formal process and practices associated with their application. To ensure decision-making is suitably supported by information (data, models, test beds) from activities (studies, exercises) from M&S applications that are understood and characterized, ESMD is establishing formal, tailored W&A processes and practices. In addition, to ensure the successful application of M&S within ESMD, a formal process for the certification of analysts that use M&S is being implemented. This presentation will highlight NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) management approach for M&S W&A to ensure decision-makers receive timely information on the model's fidelity, credibility, and quality.

Effects of automation of information-processing functions on teamwork.

PubMed

Wright, Melanie C; Kaber, David B

2005-01-01

We investigated the effects of automation as applied to different stages of information processing on team performance in a complex decision-making task. Forty teams of 2 individuals performed a simulated Theater Defense Task. Four automation conditions were simulated with computer assistance applied to realistic combinations of information acquisition, information analysis, and decision selection functions across two levels of task difficulty. Multiple measures of team effectiveness and team coordination were used. Results indicated different forms of automation have different effects on teamwork. Compared with a baseline condition, an increase in automation of information acquisition led to an increase in the ratio of information transferred to information requested; an increase in automation of information analysis resulted in higher team coordination ratings; and automation of decision selection led to better team effectiveness under low levels of task difficulty but at the cost of higher workload. The results support the use of early and intermediate forms of automation related to acquisition and analysis of information in the design of team tasks. Decision-making automation may provide benefits in more limited contexts. Applications of this research include the design and evaluation of automation in team environments.

Abductive networks applied to electronic combat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montgomery, Gerard J.; Hess, Paul; Hwang, Jong S.

1990-08-01

A practical approach to dealing with combinatorial decision problems and uncertainties associated with electronic combat through the use of networks of high-level functional elements called abductive networks is presented. It describes the application of the Abductory Induction Mechanism (AIMTM) a supervised inductive learning tool for synthesizing polynomial abductive networks to the electronic combat problem domain. From databases of historical expert-generated or simulated combat engagements AIM can often induce compact and robust network models for making effective real-time electronic combat decisions despite significant uncertainties or a combinatorial explosion of possible situations. The feasibility of applying abductive networks to realize advanced combat decision aiding capabilities was demonstrated by applying AIM to a set of electronic combat simulations. The networks synthesized by AIM generated accurate assessments of the intent lethality and overall risk associated with a variety of simulated threats and produced reasonable estimates of the expected effectiveness of a group of electronic countermeasures for a large number of simulated combat scenarios. This paper presents the application of abductive networks to electronic combat summarizes the results of experiments performed using AIM discusses the benefits and limitations of applying abductive networks to electronic combat and indicates why abductive networks can often result in capabilities not attainable using alternative approaches. 1. ELECTRONIC COMBAT. UNCERTAINTY. AND MACHINE LEARNING Electronic combat has become an essential part of the ability to make war and has become increasingly complex since

Development and evaluation of a trauma decision-making simulator in Oculus virtual reality.

PubMed

Harrington, Cuan M; Kavanagh, Dara O; Quinlan, John F; Ryan, Donncha; Dicker, Patrick; O'Keeffe, Dara; Traynor, Oscar; Tierney, Sean

2018-01-01

Consumer-available virtual-reality technology was launched in 2016 with strong foundations in the entertainment-industry. We developed an innovative medical-training simulator on the Oculus™ Gear-VR platform. This novel application was developed utilising internationally recognised Advanced Trauma Life Support (ATLS) principles, requiring decision-making skills for critically-injured virtual-patients. Participants were recruited in June, 2016 at a single-centre trauma-course (ATLS, Leinster, Ireland) and trialled the platform. Simulator performances were correlated with individual expertise and course-performance measures. A post-intervention questionnaire relating to validity-aspects was completed. Eighteen(81.8%) eligible-candidates and eleven(84.6%) course-instructors voluntarily participated. The survey-responders mean-age was 38.9(±11.0) years with 80.8% male predominance. The instructor-group caused significantly less fatal-errors (p < 0.050) and proportions of incorrect-decisions (p < 0.050). The VR-hardware and trauma-application's mean ratings were 5.09 and 5.04 out of 7 respectively. Participants reported it was an enjoyable method of learning (median-6.0), the learning platform of choice (median-5.0) and a cost-effective training tool (median-5.0). Our research has demonstrated evidence of validity-criteria for a concept application on virtual-reality headsets. We believe that virtual-reality technology is a viable platform for medical-simulation into the future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Operating room managerial decision-making on the day of surgery with and without computer recommendations and status displays.

PubMed

Dexter, Franklin; Willemsen-Dunlap, Ann; Lee, John D

2007-08-01

There are three basic types of decision aids to facilitate operating room (OR) management decision-making on the day of surgery. Decision makers can rely on passive status displays (e.g., big screens or whiteboards), active status displays (e.g., text pager notification), and/or command displays (e.g., text recommendations about what to do). Anesthesiologists, OR nurses, and housekeepers were given nine simulated scenarios (vignettes) involving multiple ORs to study their decision-making. Participants were randomized to one of four groups, all with an updated paper OR schedule: with/without command display and with/without passive status display. Participants making decisions without command displays performed no better than random chance in terms of increasing the predictability of work hours, reducing over-utilized OR time, and increasing OR efficiency. Status displays had no effect on these end-points, whereas command displays improved the quality of decisions. In the scenarios for which the command displays provided recommendations that adversely affected safety, participants appropriately ignored advice. Anesthesia providers and nursing staff made decisions that increased clinical work per unit time in each OR, even when doing so resulted in an increase in over-utilized OR time, higher staffing costs, unpredictable work hours, and/or mandatory overtime. Organizational culture and socialization during clinical training may be a cause. Command displays showed promise in mitigating this tendency. Additional investigations are in our companion paper.

Higher landing accuracy in expert pilots is associated with lower activity in the caudate nucleus.

PubMed

Adamson, Maheen M; Taylor, Joy L; Heraldez, Daniel; Khorasani, Allen; Noda, Art; Hernandez, Beatriz; Yesavage, Jerome A

2014-01-01

The most common lethal accidents in General Aviation are caused by improperly executed landing approaches in which a pilot descends below the minimum safe altitude without proper visual references. To understand how expertise might reduce such erroneous decision-making, we examined relevant neural processes in pilots performing a simulated landing approach inside a functional MRI scanner. Pilots (aged 20-66) were asked to "fly" a series of simulated "cockpit view" instrument landing scenarios in an MRI scanner. The scenarios were either high risk (heavy fog-legally unsafe to land) or low risk (medium fog-legally safe to land). Pilots with one of two levels of expertise participated: Moderate Expertise (Instrument Flight Rules pilots, n = 8) or High Expertise (Certified Instrument Flight Instructors or Air-Transport Pilots, n = 12). High Expertise pilots were more accurate than Moderate Expertise pilots in making a "land" versus "do not land" decision (CFII: d' = 3.62 ± 2.52; IFR: d' = 0.98 ± 1.04; p<.01). Brain activity in bilateral caudate nucleus was examined for main effects of expertise during a "land" versus "do not land" decision with the no-decision control condition modeled as baseline. In making landing decisions, High Expertise pilots showed lower activation in the bilateral caudate nucleus (0.97 ± 0.80) compared to Moderate Expertise pilots (1.91 ± 1.16) (p<.05). These findings provide evidence for increased "neural efficiency" in High Expertise pilots relative to Moderate Expertise pilots. During an instrument approach the pilot is engaged in detailed examination of flight instruments while monitoring certain visual references for making landing decisions. The caudate nucleus regulates saccade eye control of gaze, the brain area where the "expertise" effect was observed. These data provide evidence that performing "real world" aviation tasks in an fMRI provide objective data regarding the relative expertise of pilots and brain regions involved in it.

Research on the use of data fusion technology to evaluate the state of electromechanical equipment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Lin

2018-04-01

Aiming at the problems of different testing information modes and the coexistence of quantitative and qualitative information in the state evaluation of electromechanical equipment, the paper proposes the use of data fusion technology to evaluate the state of electromechanical equipment. This paper introduces the state evaluation process of mechanical and electrical equipment in detail, uses the D-S evidence theory to fuse the decision-making layers of mechanical and electrical equipment state evaluation and carries out simulation tests. The simulation results show that it is feasible and effective to apply the data fusion technology to the state evaluation of the mechatronic equipment. After the multiple decision-making information provided by different evaluation methods are fused repeatedly and the useful information is extracted repeatedly, the fuzziness of judgment can be reduced and the state evaluation Credibility.

Use of a Virtual Learning Platform for Distance-Based Simulation in an Acute Care Nurse Practitioner Curriculum.

PubMed

Carman, Margaret; Xu, Shu; Rushton, Sharron; Smallheer, Benjamin A; Williams, Denise; Amarasekara, Sathya; Oermann, Marilyn H

Acute care nurse practitioner (ACNP) programs that use high-fidelity simulation as a teaching tool need to consider innovative strategies to provide distance-based students with learning experiences that are comparable to those in a simulation laboratory. The purpose of this article is to describe the use of virtual simulations in a distance-based ACNP program and student performance in the simulations. Virtual simulations using iSimulate were integrated into the ACNP course to promote the translation of content into a clinical context and enable students to develop their knowledge and decision-making skills. With these simulations, students worked as a team, even though they were at different sites from each other and from the faculty, to manage care of an acutely ill patient. The students were assigned to simulation groups of 4 students each. One week before the simulation, they reviewed past medical records. The virtual simulation sessions were recorded and then evaluated. The evaluation tools assessed 8 areas of performance and included key behaviors in each of these areas to be performed by students in the simulation. More than 80% of the student groups performed the key behaviors. Virtual simulations provide a learning platform that allows live interaction between students and faculty, at a distance, and application of content to clinical situations. With simulation, learners have an opportunity to practice assessment and decision-making in emergency and high-risk situations. Simulations not only are valuable for student learning but also provide a nonthreatening environment for staff to practice, receive feedback on their skills, and improve their confidence.

Simulation-optimization model for production planning in the blood supply chain.

PubMed

Osorio, Andres F; Brailsford, Sally C; Smith, Honora K; Forero-Matiz, Sonia P; Camacho-Rodríguez, Bernardo A

2017-12-01

Production planning in the blood supply chain is a challenging task. Many complex factors such as uncertain supply and demand, blood group proportions, shelf life constraints and different collection and production methods have to be taken into account, and thus advanced methodologies are required for decision making. This paper presents an integrated simulation-optimization model to support both strategic and operational decisions in production planning. Discrete-event simulation is used to represent the flows through the supply chain, incorporating collection, production, storing and distribution. On the other hand, an integer linear optimization model running over a rolling planning horizon is used to support daily decisions, such as the required number of donors, collection methods and production planning. This approach is evaluated using real data from a blood center in Colombia. The results show that, using the proposed model, key indicators such as shortages, outdated units, donors required and cost are improved.

Range Sensor-Based Efficient Obstacle Avoidance through Selective Decision-Making.

PubMed

Shim, Youngbo; Kim, Gon-Woo

2018-03-29

In this paper, we address a collision avoidance method for mobile robots. Many conventional obstacle avoidance methods have been focused solely on avoiding obstacles. However, this can cause instability when passing through a narrow passage, and can also generate zig-zag motions. We define two strategies for obstacle avoidance, known as Entry mode and Bypass mode. Entry mode is a pattern for passing through the gap between obstacles, while Bypass mode is a pattern for making a detour around obstacles safely. With these two modes, we propose an efficient obstacle avoidance method based on the Expanded Guide Circle (EGC) method with selective decision-making. The simulation and experiment results show the validity of the proposed method.

BUILD: A community development simulation game, appendix A

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orlando, J. A.; Pennington, A. J.

1973-01-01

The computer based urban decision-making game BUILD is described. BUILD is aimed at: (1) allowing maximum expression of value positions by participants through resolution of intense, task-oriented conflicts: (2) heuristically gathering information on both the technical and social functioning of the city through feedback from participants: (3) providing community participants with access to technical expertise in urban decision making, and to expose professionals to the value positions of the community: and (4) laying the groundwork for eventual development of an actual policy making tool. A brief description of the roles, sample input/output formats, an initial scenario, and information on accessing the game through a time-sharing system are included.

Artificial Intelligence (Al) Center of Excellence at the University of Pennsylvania

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-07-01

Approach and repel behaviors were implemented in order to study higher level behavioral simulation . Parallel algorithms for motion planning (as a...of decision-making accuracy can be specified for this graph-reduction process. We have also developed a mixed qualitative/quantitative simulation ...system, called QobiSIM. QobiSIM has been used to develop a cardiovascular simulation to be incorporated into the TraumAID system. This cardiovascular

Science-based HRA: experimental comparison of operator performance to IDAC (Information-Decision-Action Crew) simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shirley, Rachel; Smidts, Carol; Boring, Ronald

Information-Decision-Action Crew (IDAC) operator model simulations of a Steam Generator Tube Rupture are compared to student operator performance in studies conducted in the Ohio State University’s Nuclear Power Plant Simulator Facility. This study is presented as a prototype for conducting simulator studies to validate key aspects of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) methods. Seven student operator crews are compared to simulation results for crews designed to demonstrate three different decision-making strategies. The IDAC model used in the simulations is modified slightly to capture novice behavior rather that expert operators. Operator actions and scenario pacing are compared. A preliminary review of availablemore » performance shaping factors (PSFs) is presented. After the scenario in the NPP Simulator Facility, student operators review a video of the scenario and evaluate six PSFs at pre-determined points in the scenario. This provides a dynamic record of the PSFs experienced by the OSU student operators. In this preliminary analysis, Time Constraint Load (TCL) calculated in the IDAC simulations is compared to TCL reported by student operators. We identify potential modifications to the IDAC model to develop an “IDAC Student Operator Model.” This analysis provides insights into how similar experiments could be conducted using expert operators to improve the fidelity of IDAC simulations.« less

Using multi-objective robust decision making to support seasonal water management in the Chao Phraya River basin, Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riegels, Niels; Jessen, Oluf; Madsen, Henrik

2016-04-01

A multi-objective robust decision making approach is demonstrated that supports seasonal water management in the Chao Phraya River basin in Thailand. The approach uses multi-objective optimization to identify a Pareto-optimal set of management alternatives. Ensemble simulation is used to evaluate how each member of the Pareto set performs under a range of uncertain future conditions, and a robustness criterion is used to select a preferred alternative. Data mining tools are then used to identify ranges of uncertain factor values that lead to unacceptable performance for the preferred alternative. The approach is compared to a multi-criteria scenario analysis approach to estimate whether the introduction of additional complexity has the potential to improve decision making. Dry season irrigation in Thailand is managed through non-binding recommendations about the maximum extent of rice cultivation along with incentives for less water-intensive crops. Management authorities lack authority to prevent river withdrawals for irrigation when rice cultivation exceeds recommendations. In practice, this means that water must be provided to irrigate the actual planted area because of downstream municipal water supply requirements and water quality constraints. This results in dry season reservoir withdrawals that exceed planned withdrawals, reducing carryover storage to hedge against insufficient wet season runoff. The dry season planning problem in Thailand can therefore be framed in terms of decisions, objectives, constraints, and uncertainties. Decisions include recommendations about the maximum extent of rice cultivation and incentives for growing less water-intensive crops. Objectives are to maximize benefits to farmers, minimize the risk of inadequate carryover storage, and minimize incentives. Constraints include downstream municipal demands and water quality requirements. Uncertainties include the actual extent of rice cultivation, dry season precipitation, and precipitation in the following wet season. The multi-objective robust decision making approach is implemented as follows. First, three baseline simulation models are developed, including a crop water demand model, a river basin simulation model, and model of the impact of incentives on cropping patterns. The crop water demand model estimates irrigation water demands; the river basin simulation model estimates reservoir drawdown required to meet demands given forecasts of precipitation, evaporation, and runoff; the model of incentive impacts estimates the cost of incentives as function of marginal changes in rice yields. Optimization is used to find a set of non-dominated alternatives as a function of rice area and incentive decisions. An ensemble of uncertain model inputs is generated to represent uncertain hydrological and crop area forecasts. An ensemble of indicator values is then generated for each of the decision objectives: farmer benefits, end-of-wet-season reservoir storage, and the cost of incentives. A single alternative is selected from the Pareto set using a robustness criterion. Threshold values are defined for each of the objectives to identify ensemble members for which objective values are unacceptable, and the PRIM data mining algorithm is then used to identify input values associated with unacceptable model outcomes.

Pharmacy student decision making in over-the-counter medicine supply: A critical incident study.

PubMed

McMillan, Sara S; Thangarajah, Thachaayini; Anderson, Claire; Kelly, Fiona

2017-09-28

Various factors influence decision making in over-the-counter (OTC) medicine consultations, yet limited studies have focused, in-depth, on the thought process of pharmacy staff. This includes pharmacy students as pharmacists-in-training. To explore the factors that influence pharmacy students' decisions in relation to OTC consultations and choice of OTC medicine/s. Semi-structured interviews using the critical incident technique were undertaken with ten pharmacy students in Australia, who also worked as part-time pharmacy staff. Nine key themes were identified to influence pharmacy student decision making in OTC consultations, including customer response, confidence and scope of practice. Product requests were reported as more challenging due to customer expectations and experiences in other pharmacies, states or countries. Although negative customer response influenced some students to supply medicines in contradiction of evidence, an overarching concern for safety meant that a medicine was only supplied if unlikely to cause harm. Students reported developing confidence in OTC decision making more from real-life practice than university training; greater confidence was identified for inquiries more frequently experienced in the pharmacy. Students perceived that customers had assumptions around support staff, and were happier to talk to students than assistants. This study further identified that OTC decision making is a complex process for pharmacy students. Additional opportunities for experiential learning within this area are suggested, such as work-based placements or in-class activities such as role-plays with simulated patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adaptive decision making in a dynamic environment: a test of a sequential sampling model of relative judgment.

PubMed

Vuckovic, Anita; Kwantes, Peter J; Neal, Andrew

2013-09-01

Research has identified a wide range of factors that influence performance in relative judgment tasks. However, the findings from this research have been inconsistent. Studies have varied with respect to the identification of causal variables and the perceptual and decision-making mechanisms underlying performance. Drawing on the ecological rationality approach, we present a theory of the judgment and decision-making processes involved in a relative judgment task that explains how people judge a stimulus and adapt their decision process to accommodate their own uncertainty associated with those judgments. Undergraduate participants performed a simulated air traffic control conflict detection task. Across two experiments, we systematically manipulated variables known to affect performance. In the first experiment, we manipulated the relative distances of aircraft to a common destination while holding aircraft speeds constant. In a follow-up experiment, we introduced a direct manipulation of relative speed. We then fit a sequential sampling model to the data, and used the best fitting parameters to infer the decision-making processes responsible for performance. Findings were consistent with the theory that people adapt to their own uncertainty by adjusting their criterion and the amount of time they take to collect evidence in order to make a more accurate decision. From a practical perspective, the paper demonstrates that one can use a sequential sampling model to understand performance in a dynamic environment, allowing one to make sense of and interpret complex patterns of empirical findings that would otherwise be difficult to interpret using standard statistical analyses. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Core Self-Evaluations as Causes of Satisfaction: The Mediating Role of Seeking Task Complexity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Srivastava, Abhishek; Locke, Edwin A.; Judge, Timothy A.; Adams, John W.

2010-01-01

This study examined the mediating role of task complexity in the relationship between core self-evaluations (CSE) and satisfaction. In Study 1, eighty three undergraduate business students worked on a strategic decision-making simulation. The simulated environment enabled us to verify the temporal sequence of variables, use an objective measure of…

Simulating post-wildfire forest trajectories under alternative climate and management scenarios

Treesearch

Alicia Azpeleta Tarancon; Peter Z. Fule; Kristen L. Shive; Carolyn H. Sieg; Andrew Sanchez Meador; Barbara Strom

2014-01-01

Post-fire predictions of forest recovery under future climate change and management actions are necessary for forest managers to make decisions about treatments. We applied the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS), a new version of a widely used forest management model, to compare alternative climate and management scenarios in a severely burned...

In Search of Consensus: Role Versus Belief Systems in Bureaucratic Bargaining. An American Foreign Policy Simulation (AFPS).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hobbs, Heidi H.; Moreno, Dario V.

Reported are results from two runs of the simulation "Bureaucratic Bargaining," developed to help students understand the inherent tension between roles and belief systems in American foreign policy decision making. To determine their belief systems, 165 students enrolled in an introductory international relations course were tested with…

Validation of FIBER 3.0 for tolerant hardwood stands in Ontario

Treesearch

Jacek Bankowski; Daniel C. Dey; Murray Woods; Jim Rice; Eric Boysen; Brian Batchelor; Roj Miller

1995-01-01

Growth and yield projections aid foresters in assessing timber management opportunities and in making management decisions. With these uses, questions arise about the reliability and limits of growth and yield simulators. Using long-term studies of hardwood stands in Ontario the growth simulator FIBER 3.0 has been tested. Short-term (5 years) projections of stand...

Simulating spatial and temporally related fire weather

Treesearch

Isaac C. Grenfell; Mark Finney; Matt Jolly

2010-01-01

Use of fire behavior models has assumed an increasingly important role for managers of wildfire incidents to make strategic decisions. For fire risk assessments and danger rating at very large spatial scales, these models depend on fire weather variables or fire danger indices. Here, we describe a method to simulate fire weather at a national scale that captures the...

Perceptions of the Effectiveness of System Dynamics-Based Interactive Learning Environments: An Empirical Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan

2010-01-01

The use of simulations in general and of system dynamics simulation based interactive learning environments (SDILEs) in particular is well recognized as an effective way of improving users' decision making and learning in complex, dynamic tasks. However, the effectiveness of SDILEs in classrooms has rarely been evaluated. This article describes…

A Framework for the Design of Computer-Assisted Simulation Training for Complex Police Situations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Söderström, Tor; Åström, Jan; Anderson, Greg; Bowles, Ron

2014-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to report progress concerning the design of a computer-assisted simulation training (CAST) platform for developing decision-making skills in police students. The overarching aim is to outline a theoretical framework for the design of CAST to facilitate police students' development of search techniques in…

Best opening face system for sweepy, eccentric logs : a user’s guide

Treesearch

David W. Lewis

1985-01-01

Log breakdown simulation models have gained rapid acceptance within the sawmill industry in the last 15 years. Although they have many advantages over traditional decision making tools, the existing models do not calculate yield correctly when used to simulate the breakdown of eccentric, sweepy logs in North American sawmills producing softwood dimension lumber. In an...

Dealing with Environmental Issues: The Use of Simulation. Environmental Education Occasional Paper No. 5.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patton, William E.; Wilen, William W.

The paper provides a rationale for using a decision-making model in teaching environmental issues, outlines specific steps in creating a simulation, and illustrates its use in the classroom. The objectives of environmental education are to provide learning opportunities for students to know, think, choose, and act regarding pervasive social issues…

Basic Economics for Consumers: Living Tomorrow Today. BANK-ED III: Personal Money Management Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foster, Francine; And Others

This course in consumer economics for high school students is organized around a semester-long simulation in which students assume the responsibilities of young adults in making decisions related to the economics of work and domestic life. During the simulation, the students: (1) set individual goals; (2) choose occupations based on their goals…

Evolution of Fairness in the Not Quite Ultimatum Game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ichinose, Genki; Sayama, Hiroki

2014-05-01

The Ultimatum Game (UG) is an economic game where two players (proposer and responder) decide how to split a certain amount of money. While traditional economic theories based on rational decision making predict that the proposer should make a minimal offer and the responder should accept it, human subjects tend to behave more fairly in UG. Previous studies suggested that extra information such as reputation, empathy, or spatial structure is needed for fairness to evolve in UG. Here we show that fairness can evolve without additional information if players make decisions probabilistically and may continue interactions when the offer is rejected, which we call the Not Quite Ultimatum Game (NQUG). Evolutionary simulations of NQUG showed that the probabilistic decision making contributes to the increase of proposers' offer amounts to avoid rejection, while the repetition of the game works to responders' advantage because they can wait until a good offer comes. These simple extensions greatly promote evolution of fairness in both proposers' offers and responders' acceptance thresholds.

Ranking of Business Process Simulation Software Tools with DEX/QQ Hierarchical Decision Model

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The omnipresent need for optimisation requires constant improvements of companies’ business processes (BPs). Minimising the risk of inappropriate BP being implemented is usually performed by simulating the newly developed BP under various initial conditions and “what-if” scenarios. An effectual business process simulations software (BPSS) is a prerequisite for accurate analysis of an BP. Characterisation of an BPSS tool is a challenging task due to the complex selection criteria that includes quality of visual aspects, simulation capabilities, statistical facilities, quality reporting etc. Under such circumstances, making an optimal decision is challenging. Therefore, various decision support models are employed aiding the BPSS tool selection. The currently established decision support models are either proprietary or comprise only a limited subset of criteria, which affects their accuracy. Addressing this issue, this paper proposes a new hierarchical decision support model for ranking of BPSS based on their technical characteristics by employing DEX and qualitative to quantitative (QQ) methodology. Consequently, the decision expert feeds the required information in a systematic and user friendly manner. There are three significant contributions of the proposed approach. Firstly, the proposed hierarchical model is easily extendible for adding new criteria in the hierarchical structure. Secondly, a fully operational decision support system (DSS) tool that implements the proposed hierarchical model is presented. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical model is assessed by comparing the resulting rankings of BPSS with respect to currently available results. PMID:26871694

InterSpread Plus: a spatial and stochastic simulation model of disease in animal populations.

PubMed

Stevenson, M A; Sanson, R L; Stern, M W; O'Leary, B D; Sujau, M; Moles-Benfell, N; Morris, R S

2013-04-01

We describe the spatially explicit, stochastic simulation model of disease spread, InterSpread Plus, in terms of its epidemiological framework, operation, and mode of use. The input data required by the model, the method for simulating contact and infection spread, and methods for simulating disease control measures are described. Data and parameters that are essential for disease simulation modelling using InterSpread Plus are distinguished from those that are non-essential, and it is suggested that a rational approach to simulating disease epidemics using this tool is to start with core data and parameters, adding additional layers of complexity if and when the specific requirements of the simulation exercise require it. We recommend that simulation models of disease are best developed as part of epidemic contingency planning so decision makers are familiar with model outputs and assumptions and are well-positioned to evaluate their strengths and weaknesses to make informed decisions in times of crisis. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How do expert soccer players encode visual information to make decisions in simulated game situations?

PubMed

Poplu, Gérald; Ripoll, Hubert; Mavromatis, Sébastien; Baratgin, Jean

2008-09-01

The aim of this study was to determine what visual information expert soccer players encode when they are asked to make a decision. We used a repetition-priming paradigm to test the hypothesis that experts encode a soccer pattern's structure independently of the players' physical characteristics (i.e., posture and morphology). The participants were given either realistic (digital photos) or abstract (three-dimensional schematic representations) soccer game patterns. The results showed that the experts benefited from priming effects regardless of how abstract the stimuli were. This suggests that an abstract representation of a realistic pattern (i.e., one that does not include visual information related to the players'physical characteristics) is sufficient to activate experts'specific knowledge during decision making. These results seem to show that expert soccer players encode and store abstract representations of visual patterns in memory.

Abstraction of an Affective-Cognitive Decision Making Model Based on Simulated Behaviour and Perception Chains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharpanskykh, Alexei; Treur, Jan

Employing rich internal agent models of actors in large-scale socio-technical systems often results in scalability issues. The problem addressed in this paper is how to improve computational properties of a complex internal agent model, while preserving its behavioral properties. The problem is addressed for the case of an existing affective-cognitive decision making model instantiated for an emergency scenario. For this internal decision model an abstracted behavioral agent model is obtained, which ensures a substantial increase of the computational efficiency at the cost of approximately 1% behavioural error. The abstraction technique used can be applied to a wide range of internal agent models with loops, for example, involving mutual affective-cognitive interactions.

Politics in evaluation: Politically responsive evaluation in high stakes environments.

PubMed

Azzam, Tarek; Levine, Bret

2015-12-01

The role of politics has often been discussed in evaluation theory and practice. The political influence of the situation can have major effects on the evaluation design, approach and methods. Politics also has the potential to influence the decisions made from the evaluation findings. The current study focuses on the influence of the political context on stakeholder decision making. Utilizing a simulation scenario, this study compares stakeholder decision making in high and low stakes evaluation contexts. Findings suggest that high stakes political environments are more likely than low stakes environments to lead to reduced reliance on technically appropriate measures and increased dependence on measures better reflect the broader political environment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiscale Modelling and Analysis of Collective Decision Making in Swarm Robotics

PubMed Central

Vigelius, Matthias; Meyer, Bernd; Pascoe, Geoffrey

2014-01-01

We present a unified approach to describing certain types of collective decision making in swarm robotics that bridges from a microscopic individual-based description to aggregate properties. Our approach encompasses robot swarm experiments, microscopic and probabilistic macroscopic-discrete simulations as well as an analytic mathematical model. Following up on previous work, we identify the symmetry parameter, a measure of the progress of the swarm towards a decision, as a fundamental integrated swarm property and formulate its time evolution as a continuous-time Markov process. Contrary to previous work, which justified this approach only empirically and a posteriori, we justify it from first principles and derive hard limits on the parameter regime in which it is applicable. PMID:25369026

Use of cognitive task analysis to guide the development of performance-based assessments for intraoperative decision making.

PubMed

Pugh, Carla M; DaRosa, Debra A

2013-10-01

There is a paucity of performance-based assessments that focus on intraoperative decision making. The purpose of this article is to review the performance outcomes and usefulness of two performance-based assessments that were developed using cognitive task analysis (CTA) frameworks. Assessment-A used CTA to create a "think aloud" oral examination that was administered while junior residents (PGY 1-2's, N = 69) performed a porcine-based laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Assessment-B used CTA to create a simulation-based, formative assessment of senior residents' (PGY 4-5's, N = 29) decision making during a laparoscopic ventral hernia repair. In addition to survey-based assessments of usefulness, a multiconstruct evaluation was performed using eight variables. When comparing performance outcomes, both approaches revealed major deficiencies in residents' intraoperative decision-making skills. Multiconstruct evaluation of the two CTA approaches revealed assessment method advantages for five of the eight evaluation areas: (1) Cognitive Complexity, (2) Content Quality, (3) Content Coverage, (4) Meaningfulness, and (5) Transfer and Generalizability. The two CTA performance assessments were useful in identifying significant training needs. While there are pros and cons to each approach, the results serve as a useful blueprint for program directors seeking to develop performance-based assessments for intraoperative decision making. Reprint & Copyright © 2013 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

Emergent collective decision-making: Control, model and behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Tian

In this dissertation we study emergent collective decision-making in social groups with time-varying interactions and heterogeneously informed individuals. First we analyze a nonlinear dynamical systems model motivated by animal collective motion with heterogeneously informed subpopulations, to examine the role of uninformed individuals. We find through formal analysis that adding uninformed individuals in a group increases the likelihood of a collective decision. Secondly, we propose a model for human shared decision-making with continuous-time feedback and where individuals have little information about the true preferences of other group members. We study model equilibria using bifurcation analysis to understand how the model predicts decisions based on the critical threshold parameters that represent an individual's tradeoff between social and environmental influences. Thirdly, we analyze continuous-time data of pairs of human subjects performing an experimental shared tracking task using our second proposed model in order to understand transient behavior and the decision-making process. We fit the model to data and show that it reproduces a wide range of human behaviors surprisingly well, suggesting that the model may have captured the mechanisms of observed behaviors. Finally, we study human behavior from a game-theoretic perspective by modeling the aforementioned tracking task as a repeated game with incomplete information. We show that the majority of the players are able to converge to playing Nash equilibrium strategies. We then suggest with simulations that the mean field evolution of strategies in the population resemble replicator dynamics, indicating that the individual strategies may be myopic. Decisions form the basis of control and problems involving deciding collectively between alternatives are ubiquitous in nature and in engineering. Understanding how multi-agent systems make decisions among alternatives also provides insight for designing decentralized control laws for engineering applications from mobile sensor networks for environmental monitoring to collective construction robots. With this dissertation we hope to provide additional methodology and mathematical models for understanding the behavior and control of collective decision-making in multi-agent systems.

Pitfalls of Counterfactual Thinking in Medical Practice: Preventing Errors by Using More Functional Reference Points

PubMed Central

Petrocelli, John V.

2013-01-01

Background Counterfactual thinking involves mentally simulating alternatives to reality. The current article reviews literature pertaining to the relevance counterfactual thinking has for the quality of medical decision making. Although earlier counterfactual thought research concluded that counterfactuals have important benefits for the individual, there are reasons to believe that counterfactual thinking is also associated with dysfunctional consequences. Of particular focus is whether or not medical experience, and its influence on counterfactual thinking, actually informs or improves medical practice. It is hypothesized that relatively more probable decision alternatives, followed by undesirable outcomes and counterfactual thought responses, can be abandoned for relatively less probable decision alternatives. Design and Methods Building on earlier research demonstrating that counterfactual thinking can impede memory and learning in a decision paradigm with undergraduate students, the current study examines the extent to which earlier findings can be generalized to practicing physicians (N=10). Participants were asked to complete 60 trials of a computerized Monty Hall Problem simulation. Learning by experience was operationalized as the frequency of switch-decisions. Results Although some learning was evidenced by a general increase in switch-decision frequency across block trials, the extent of learning demonstrated was not ideal, nor practical. Conclusions A simple, multiple-trial, decision paradigm demonstrated that doctors fail to learn basic decision-outcome associations through experience. An agenda for future research, which tests the functionality of reference points (other than counterfactual alternatives) for the purposes of medical decision making, is proposed. Significance for public health The quality of healthcare depends heavily on the judgments and decisions made by doctors and other medical professionals. Findings from this research indicate that doctors fail to learn basic decision-outcome associations through experience, as evidenced by the sample’s tendency to select the optimal decision strategy in only 50% of 60 trials (each of which was followed by veridical feedback). These findings suggest that professional experience is unlikely to enhance the quality of medical decision making. Thus, this research has implications for understanding how doctors’ reactions to medical outcomes shape their judgments and affect the degree to which their future treatment intentions are consistent with clinical practice guidelines. The current research is integrated with earlier research on counter-factual thinking, which appears to be a primary element inhibiting the learning of decision-outcome associations. An agenda for future research is proposed. PMID:25170495

Using Crisis Simulations in Public Relations Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Veil, Shari R.

2010-01-01

Objectives: Students will demonstrate research, decision making, team building, and public speaking skills, while applying issues management and crisis communication concepts in a realistic setting. Courses: Introduction to Public Relations, Public Relations Cases, Crisis Communication.

Self-Organized Transport System

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-09-28

This report presents the findings of the simulation model for a self-organized transport system where traffic lights communicate with neighboring traffic lights and make decisions locally to adapt to traffic conditions in real time. The model is insp...

Cyber-Ed.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ruben, Barbara

1994-01-01

Reviews a number of interactive environmental computer education networks and software packages. Computer networks include National Geographic Kids Network, Global Lab, and Global Rivers Environmental Education Network. Computer software involve environmental decision making, simulation games, tropical rainforests, the ocean, the greenhouse…

Spares Management : Optimizing Hardware Usage for the Space Shuttle Main Engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gulbrandsen, K. A.

1999-01-01

The complexity of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME), combined with mounting requirements to reduce operations costs have increased demands for accurate tracking, maintenance, and projections of SSME assets. The SSME Logistics Team is developing an integrated asset management process. This PC-based tool provides a user-friendly asset database for daily decision making, plus a variable-input hardware usage simulation with complex logic yielding output that addresses essential asset management issues. Cycle times on critical tasks are significantly reduced. Associated costs have decreased as asset data quality and decision-making capability has increased.

Pilot interaction with automated airborne decision making systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hammer, John M.

1990-01-01

Ways in which computers can aid the decision making of an human operator of an aerospace system are investigated. The approach taken is to aid rather than replace the human operator, because operational experience has shown that humans can enhance the effectiveness of systems. As systems become more automated, the role of the operator has shifted to that of a manager and problem solver. This shift has created the research area of how to aid the human in this role. Published research in four areas is described. A discussion is presented of the DC-8 flight simulator at Georgia Tech.

Simulations in Cyber-Security: A Review of Cognitive Modeling of Network Attackers, Defenders, and Users

PubMed Central

Veksler, Vladislav D.; Buchler, Norbou; Hoffman, Blaine E.; Cassenti, Daniel N.; Sample, Char; Sugrim, Shridat

2018-01-01

Computational models of cognitive processes may be employed in cyber-security tools, experiments, and simulations to address human agency and effective decision-making in keeping computational networks secure. Cognitive modeling can addresses multi-disciplinary cyber-security challenges requiring cross-cutting approaches over the human and computational sciences such as the following: (a) adversarial reasoning and behavioral game theory to predict attacker subjective utilities and decision likelihood distributions, (b) human factors of cyber tools to address human system integration challenges, estimation of defender cognitive states, and opportunities for automation, (c) dynamic simulations involving attacker, defender, and user models to enhance studies of cyber epidemiology and cyber hygiene, and (d) training effectiveness research and training scenarios to address human cyber-security performance, maturation of cyber-security skill sets, and effective decision-making. Models may be initially constructed at the group-level based on mean tendencies of each subject's subgroup, based on known statistics such as specific skill proficiencies, demographic characteristics, and cultural factors. For more precise and accurate predictions, cognitive models may be fine-tuned to each individual attacker, defender, or user profile, and updated over time (based on recorded behavior) via techniques such as model tracing and dynamic parameter fitting. PMID:29867661

Decision-analytic modeling studies: An overview for clinicians using multiple myeloma as an example.

PubMed

Rochau, U; Jahn, B; Qerimi, V; Burger, E A; Kurzthaler, C; Kluibenschaedl, M; Willenbacher, E; Gastl, G; Willenbacher, W; Siebert, U

2015-05-01

The purpose of this study was to provide a clinician-friendly overview of decision-analytic models evaluating different treatment strategies for multiple myeloma (MM). We performed a systematic literature search to identify studies evaluating MM treatment strategies using mathematical decision-analytic models. We included studies that were published as full-text articles in English, and assessed relevant clinical endpoints, and summarized methodological characteristics (e.g., modeling approaches, simulation techniques, health outcomes, perspectives). Eleven decision-analytic modeling studies met our inclusion criteria. Five different modeling approaches were adopted: decision-tree modeling, Markov state-transition modeling, discrete event simulation, partitioned-survival analysis and area-under-the-curve modeling. Health outcomes included survival, number-needed-to-treat, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life years. Evaluated treatment strategies included novel agent-based combination therapies, stem cell transplantation and supportive measures. Overall, our review provides a comprehensive summary of modeling studies assessing treatment of MM and highlights decision-analytic modeling as an important tool for health policy decision making. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI is better than MDCT in decision making of curative treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma.

PubMed

Yoo, Sun Hong; Choi, Jong Young; Jang, Jeong Won; Bae, Si Hyun; Yoon, Seung Kew; Kim, Dong Goo; Yoo, Young Kyoung; Rha, Sung Eun; Lee, Young Joon; Jung, Eun Sun

2013-09-01

We assessed the change in the therapeutic decision among curative treatments after adding Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI to triple-phase MDCT for patients with early-stage HCC. This study retrospectively investigated two groups: 33 pathologically confirmed HCC patients after liver transplantation in group 1; 34 HCC patients without pathology in group 2. In group 1, we simulated the therapeutic decision-making process by pretransplant MDCT and Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI. In group 2, including the 34 early-stage HCC patients consecutively enrolled, we investigated the change of therapeutic decision after adding Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI to MDCT. In the simulation from group 1, after adding Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI, 33.3% (11/33 patients) of treatment decisions were changed from the decision based on MDCT alone. Among 22 patients considered eligible for resection and 33 patients for radiofrequency ablation, the therapeutic decision was changed for 10 patients in the surgical group and 4 patients for the RFA group (45.5 and 12.1%). In group 2, the rate of change in the therapeutic decision after adding Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI to MDCT was 41.2% (14/34 patients). In group 1 with explants pathology, the median diameter of HCCs not detected by MDCT but detected by Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI was 1.15 cm (0.3-3.0 cm). The median diameter of HCCs seen only in the explanted liver was 1.0 cm (0.3-1.7 cm), and 60.7% of them were well-differentiated HCCs. This study suggests that performing Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI before deciding on curative treatment for early-stage HCC may improve the accuracy of treatment decision for early-stage HCC.

Learning Reverse Engineering and Simulation with Design Visualization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hemsworth, Paul J.

2018-01-01

The Design Visualization (DV) group supports work at the Kennedy Space Center by utilizing metrology data with Computer-Aided Design (CAD) models and simulations to provide accurate visual representations that aid in decision-making. The capability to measure and simulate objects in real time helps to predict and avoid potential problems before they become expensive in addition to facilitating the planning of operations. I had the opportunity to work on existing and new models and simulations in support of DV and NASA’s Exploration Ground Systems (EGS).

Optimal strategies for electric energy contract decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Haili

2000-10-01

The power industry restructuring in various countries in recent years has created an environment where trading of electric energy is conducted in a market environment. In such an environment, electric power companies compete for the market share through spot and bilateral markets. Being profit driven, electric power companies need to make decisions on spot market bidding, contract evaluation, and risk management. New methods and software tools are required to meet these upcoming needs. In this research, bidding strategy and contract pricing are studied from a market participant's viewpoint; new methods are developed to guide a market participant in spot and bilateral market operation. A supplier's spot market bidding decision is studied. Stochastic optimization is formulated to calculate a supplier's optimal bids in a single time period. This decision making problem is also formulated as a Markov Decision Process. All the competitors are represented by their bidding parameters with corresponding probabilities. A systematic method is developed to calculate transition probabilities and rewards. The optimal strategy is calculated to maximize the expected reward over a planning horizon. Besides the spot market, a power producer can also trade in the bilateral markets. Bidding strategies in a bilateral market are studied with game theory techniques. Necessary and sufficient conditions of Nash Equilibrium (NE) bidding strategy are derived based on the generators' cost and the loads' willingness to pay. The study shows that in any NE, market efficiency is achieved. Furthermore, all Nash equilibria are revenue equivalent for the generators. The pricing of "Flexible" contracts, which allow delivery flexibility over a period of time with a fixed total amount of electricity to be delivered, is analyzed based on the no-arbitrage pricing principle. The proposed algorithm calculates the price based on the optimality condition of the stochastic optimization formulation. Simulation examples illustrate the tradeoffs between prices and scheduling flexibility. Spot bidding and contract pricing are not independent decision processes. The interaction between spot bidding and contract evaluation is demonstrated with game theory equilibrium model and market simulation results. It leads to the conclusion that a market participant's contract decision making needs to be further investigated as an integrated optimization formulation.

Multi-criteria multi-stakeholder decision analysis using a fuzzy-stochastic approach for hydrosystem management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subagadis, Y. H.; Schütze, N.; Grundmann, J.

2014-09-01

The conventional methods used to solve multi-criteria multi-stakeholder problems are less strongly formulated, as they normally incorporate only homogeneous information at a time and suggest aggregating objectives of different decision-makers avoiding water-society interactions. In this contribution, Multi-Criteria Group Decision Analysis (MCGDA) using a fuzzy-stochastic approach has been proposed to rank a set of alternatives in water management decisions incorporating heterogeneous information under uncertainty. The decision making framework takes hydrologically, environmentally, and socio-economically motivated conflicting objectives into consideration. The criteria related to the performance of the physical system are optimized using multi-criteria simulation-based optimization, and fuzzy linguistic quantifiers have been used to evaluate subjective criteria and to assess stakeholders' degree of optimism. The proposed methodology is applied to find effective and robust intervention strategies for the management of a coastal hydrosystem affected by saltwater intrusion due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture and municipal use. Preliminary results show that the MCGDA based on a fuzzy-stochastic approach gives useful support for robust decision-making and is sensitive to the decision makers' degree of optimism.

A decision model for planetary missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.; Brigadier, W. L.

1976-01-01

Many techniques developed for the solution of problems in economics and operations research are directly applicable to problems involving engineering trade-offs. This paper investigates the use of utility theory for decision making in planetary exploration space missions. A decision model is derived that accounts for the objectives of the mission - science - the cost of flying the mission and the risk of mission failure. A simulation methodology for obtaining the probability distribution of science value and costs as a function spacecraft and mission design is presented and an example application of the decision methodology is given for various potential alternatives in a comet Encke mission.

Evidence from a Large Sample on the Effects of Group Size and Decision-Making Time on Performance in a Marketing Simulation Game

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Treen, Emily; Atanasova, Christina; Pitt, Leyland; Johnson, Michael

2016-01-01

Marketing instructors using simulation games as a way of inducing some realism into a marketing course are faced with many dilemmas. Two important quandaries are the optimal size of groups and how much of the students' time should ideally be devoted to the game. Using evidence from a very large sample of teams playing a simulation game, the study…

Human judgment vs. quantitative models for the management of ecological resources.

PubMed

Holden, Matthew H; Ellner, Stephen P

2016-07-01

Despite major advances in quantitative approaches to natural resource management, there has been resistance to using these tools in the actual practice of managing ecological populations. Given a managed system and a set of assumptions, translated into a model, optimization methods can be used to solve for the most cost-effective management actions. However, when the underlying assumptions are not met, such methods can potentially lead to decisions that harm the environment and economy. Managers who develop decisions based on past experience and judgment, without the aid of mathematical models, can potentially learn about the system and develop flexible management strategies. However, these strategies are often based on subjective criteria and equally invalid and often unstated assumptions. Given the drawbacks of both methods, it is unclear whether simple quantitative models improve environmental decision making over expert opinion. In this study, we explore how well students, using their experience and judgment, manage simulated fishery populations in an online computer game and compare their management outcomes to the performance of model-based decisions. We consider harvest decisions generated using four different quantitative models: (1) the model used to produce the simulated population dynamics observed in the game, with the values of all parameters known (as a control), (2) the same model, but with unknown parameter values that must be estimated during the game from observed data, (3) models that are structurally different from those used to simulate the population dynamics, and (4) a model that ignores age structure. Humans on average performed much worse than the models in cases 1-3, but in a small minority of scenarios, models produced worse outcomes than those resulting from students making decisions based on experience and judgment. When the models ignored age structure, they generated poorly performing management decisions, but still outperformed students using experience and judgment 66% of the time. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Drivers' decision-making when attempting to cross an intersection results from choice between affordances

PubMed Central

Marti, Geoffrey; Morice, Antoine H. P.; Montagne, Gilles

2015-01-01

In theory, a safe approach to an intersection implies that drivers can simultaneously manage two scenarios: they either choose to cross or to give way to an oncoming vehicle. In this article we formalize the critical time for safe crossing (CTcross) and the critical time for safe stopping (CTstop) to represent crossing and stopping possibilities, respectively. We describe these critical times in terms of affordances and empirically test their respective contribution to the driver's decision-making process. Using a driving simulator, three groups of participants drove cars with identical acceleration capabilities and different braking capabilities. They were asked to try to cross an intersection where there was an oncoming vehicle, if they deemed the maneuver to be safe. If not, they could decide to stop or, as a last resort, make an emergency exit. The intersections were identical among groups. Results showed that although the crossing possibilities (CTcross) were the same for all groups, there were between-group differences in crossing frequency. This suggests that stopping possibilities (CTstop) play a role in the driver's decision-making process, in addition to the crossing possibilities. These results can be accounted for by a behavioral model of decision making, and provide support for the hypothesis of choice between affordances. PMID:25620922

Using Simulation to Assess the Influence of Race and Insurer on Shared Decision-making in Periviable Counseling

PubMed Central

Edmonds, Brownsyne Tucker; McKenzie, Fatima; Fadel, William F.; Matthias, Marianne S.; Salyers, Michelle P.; Barnato, Amber E.; Frankel, Richard M.

2014-01-01

Introduction Sociodemographic differences have been observed in the treatment of extremely premature (periviable) neonates, but the source of this variation is not well understood. We assessed the feasibility of using simulation to test the effect of maternal race and insurance status on shared decision-making (SDM) in periviable counseling. Methods We conducted a 2 × 2 factorial simulation experiment in which obstetricians and neonatologists counseled two consecutive standardized patients (SPs) diagnosed with ruptured membranes at 23 weeks, counterbalancing race (black/white) and insurance status using random permutation. We assessed verisimilitude of the simulation in semi-structured debriefing interviews. We coded physician communication related to resuscitation, mode of delivery, and steroid decisions using a 9-point SDM coding framework; then compared communication scores by SP race and insurer using ANOVA. Results Sixteen obstetricians and 15 neonatologists participated; 71% were women, 84% married, and 75% parents; 91% of physicians rated the simulation as highly realistic. Overall, SDM scores were relatively high, with means ranging from 6.4–7.9 (out of 9). There was a statistically significant interaction between race and insurer for SDM related to steroid use and mode of delivery (p<0.01 and p=0.01, respectively). Between group comparison revealed non-significant differences p=<0.10) between SDM scores for privately-insured black patients vs privately-insured white patients, Medicaid-insured white patients vs Medicaid-insured black patients, and privately-insured black patients vs Medicaid-insured black patients. Conclusions This study confirms that simulation is a feasible method for studying sociodemographic effects on periviable counseling. SDM may occur differentially based on patients’ sociodemographic characteristics and deserves further study. PMID:25188489

The End-to-end Demonstrator for improved decision making in the water sector in Europe (EDgE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Eric; Wanders, Niko; Pan, Ming; Sheffield, Justin; Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohinni; Prudhomme, Christel; Houghton-Carr, Helen

2017-04-01

High-resolution simulations of water resources from hydrological models are vital to supporting important climate services. Apart from a high level of detail, both spatially and temporally, it is important to provide simulations that consistently cover a range of timescales, from historical reanalysis to seasonal forecast and future projections. In the new EDgE project commissioned by the ECMWF (C3S) we try to fulfill these requirements. EDgE is a proof-of-concept project which combines climate data and state-of-the-art hydrological modelling to demonstrate a water-oriented information system implemented through a web application. EDgE is working with key European stakeholders representative of private and public sectors to jointly develop and tailor approaches and techniques. With these tools, stakeholders are assisted in using improved climate information in decision-making, and supported in the development of climate change adaptation and mitigation policies. Here, we present the first results of the EDgE modelling chain, which is divided into three main processes: 1) pre-processing and downscaling; 2) hydrological modelling; 3) post-processing. Consistent downscaling and bias corrections for historical simulations, seasonal forecasts and climate projections ensure that the results across scales are robust. The daily temporal resolution and 5km spatial resolution ensure locally relevant simulations. With the use of four hydrological models (PCR-GLOBWB, VIC, mHM, Noah-MP), uncertainty between models is properly addressed, while consistency is guaranteed by using identical input data for static land surface parameterizations. The forecast results are communicated to stakeholders via Sectoral Climate Impact Indicators (SCIIs) that have been created in collaboration with the end-user community of the EDgE project. The final product of this project is composed of 15 years of seasonal forecast and 10 climate change projections, all combined with four hydrological models. These unique high-resolution climate information simulations in the EDgE project provide an unprecedented information system for decision-making over Europe.

"Nuclear Deterrence" as an Adaptive Game Frame for Crisis Decision-Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sorenson, David S.

1981-01-01

Describes the simulation game "Nuclear Deterrence," which was developed to model an international relations crisis situation involving a bargaining framework potentially applicable to crisis modeling in other disciplines. Eight references are listed. (Author/LLS)

Leadership as an Emergent Feature in Social Organizations: Insights from A Laboratory Simulation Experiment.

PubMed

Curral, Luis; Marques-Quinteiro, Pedro; Gomes, Catarina; Lind, Pedro G

2016-01-01

Recent theoretical contributions have suggested a theory of leadership that is grounded in complexity theory, hence regarding leadership as a complex process (i.e., nonlinear; emergent). This article tests if complexity leadership theory promotes efficiency in work groups. 40 groups of five participants each had to complete four decision making tasks using the city simulation game SimCity4. Before engaging in the four decision making tasks, participants received information regarding what sort of leadership behaviors were more adequate to help them perform better. Results suggest that if complexity leadership theory is applied, groups can achieve higher efficiency over time, when compared with other groups where complexity leadership is not applied. This study goes beyond traditional views of leadership as a centralized form of control, and presents new evidence suggesting that leadership is a collective and emergent phenomenon, anchored in simple rules of behavior.

Leadership as an Emergent Feature in Social Organizations: Insights from A Laboratory Simulation Experiment

PubMed Central

Marques-Quinteiro, Pedro; Gomes, Catarina; Lind, Pedro G.

2016-01-01

Recent theoretical contributions have suggested a theory of leadership that is grounded in complexity theory, hence regarding leadership as a complex process (i.e., nonlinear; emergent). This article tests if complexity leadership theory promotes efficiency in work groups. 40 groups of five participants each had to complete four decision making tasks using the city simulation game SimCity4. Before engaging in the four decision making tasks, participants received information regarding what sort of leadership behaviors were more adequate to help them perform better. Results suggest that if complexity leadership theory is applied, groups can achieve higher efficiency over time, when compared with other groups where complexity leadership is not applied. This study goes beyond traditional views of leadership as a centralized form of control, and presents new evidence suggesting that leadership is a collective and emergent phenomenon, anchored in simple rules of behavior. PMID:27973596

The effects of alcohol on driver performance in a decision making situation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, R. W.; Schwartz, S. H.; Stein, A. C.; Hogge, J. R.

1978-01-01

The results are reviewed of driving simulator and in-vehicle field test experiments of alcohol effects on driver risk taking. The objective was to investigate changes in risk taking under alcoholic intoxication and relate these changes to effects on traffic safety. The experiments involved complex 15 minute driving scenarios requiring decision making and steering and speed control throughout a series of typical driving situations. Monetary rewards and penalties were employed to simulate the real-world motivations inherent in driving. A full placebo experimental design was employed, and measures related to traffic safety, driver/vehicle performance and driver behavior were obtained. Alcohol impairment was found to increase the rate of accidents and speeding tickets. Behavioral measures showed these traffic safety effects to be due to impaired psychomotor performance and perceptual distortions. Subjective estimates of risk failed to show any change in the driver's willingness to take risks when intoxicated.

A Constructivist Approach to Studying the Bullwhip Effect by Simulating the Supply Chain

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

González-Torre, Pilar L.; Adenso-Díaz, B.; Moreno, Plácido

2015-01-01

The Cider Game is a simulator for a supply chain-related learning environment. Its main feature is that it provides support to students in the constructivist discovery process when learning how to make logistics decisions, at the same time as noting the occurrence of the bullwhip phenomenon. This learning environment seeks a balance between direct…

Pilgrims: A Simulation of the First Year at Plymouth Colony.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flint, Myron

This simulation allows students to learn about the struggle of daily life in Plymouth Colony. Students experience the hardships of life in the New World as they make decisions and face consequences as the Pilgrims did nearly 400 years ago. The unit is divided into nine phases with each phase taking approximately one hour of class time. Students…

The Relationship between a Business Simulator, Constructivist Practices, and Motivation toward Developing Business Intelligence Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Hsun-Ming; Long, Ju; Visinescu, Lucian L.

2016-01-01

Developing Business Intelligence (BI) has been a top priority for enterprise executives in recent years. To meet these demands, universities need to prepare students to work with BI in enterprise settings. In this study, we considered a business simulator that offers students opportunities to apply BI and make top-management decisions in a system…

Towards Application of NASA Standard for Models and Simulations in Aeronautical Design Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vincent, Luc; Dunyach, Jean-Claude; Huet, Sandrine; Pelissier, Guillaume; Merlet, Joseph

2012-08-01

Even powerful computational techniques like simulation endure limitations in their validity domain. Consequently using simulation models requires cautions to avoid making biased design decisions for new aeronautical products on the basis of inadequate simulation results. Thus the fidelity, accuracy and validity of simulation models shall be monitored in context all along the design phases to build confidence in achievement of the goals of modelling and simulation.In the CRESCENDO project, we adapt the Credibility Assessment Scale method from NASA standard for models and simulations from space programme to the aircraft design in order to assess the quality of simulations. The proposed eight quality assurance metrics aggregate information to indicate the levels of confidence in results. They are displayed in management dashboard and can secure design trade-off decisions at programme milestones.The application of this technique is illustrated in aircraft design context with specific thermal Finite Elements Analysis. This use case shows how to judge the fitness- for-purpose of simulation as Virtual testing means and then green-light the continuation of Simulation Lifecycle Management (SLM) process.

Quantum-mechanical machinery for rational decision-making in classical guessing game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bang, Jeongho; Ryu, Junghee; Pawłowski, Marcin; Ham, Byoung S.; Lee, Jinhyoung

2016-02-01

In quantum game theory, one of the most intriguing and important questions is, “Is it possible to get quantum advantages without any modification of the classical game?” The answer to this question so far has largely been negative. So far, it has usually been thought that a change of the classical game setting appears to be unavoidable for getting the quantum advantages. However, we give an affirmative answer here, focusing on the decision-making process (we call ‘reasoning’) to generate the best strategy, which may occur internally, e.g., in the player’s brain. To show this, we consider a classical guessing game. We then define a one-player reasoning problem in the context of the decision-making theory, where the machinery processes are designed to simulate classical and quantum reasoning. In such settings, we present a scenario where a rational player is able to make better use of his/her weak preferences due to quantum reasoning, without any altering or resetting of the classically defined game. We also argue in further analysis that the quantum reasoning may make the player fail, and even make the situation worse, due to any inappropriate preferences.

Quantum-mechanical machinery for rational decision-making in classical guessing game

PubMed Central

Bang, Jeongho; Ryu, Junghee; Pawłowski, Marcin; Ham, Byoung S.; Lee, Jinhyoung

2016-01-01

In quantum game theory, one of the most intriguing and important questions is, “Is it possible to get quantum advantages without any modification of the classical game?” The answer to this question so far has largely been negative. So far, it has usually been thought that a change of the classical game setting appears to be unavoidable for getting the quantum advantages. However, we give an affirmative answer here, focusing on the decision-making process (we call ‘reasoning’) to generate the best strategy, which may occur internally, e.g., in the player’s brain. To show this, we consider a classical guessing game. We then define a one-player reasoning problem in the context of the decision-making theory, where the machinery processes are designed to simulate classical and quantum reasoning. In such settings, we present a scenario where a rational player is able to make better use of his/her weak preferences due to quantum reasoning, without any altering or resetting of the classically defined game. We also argue in further analysis that the quantum reasoning may make the player fail, and even make the situation worse, due to any inappropriate preferences. PMID:26875685

Quantum-mechanical machinery for rational decision-making in classical guessing game.

PubMed

Bang, Jeongho; Ryu, Junghee; Pawłowski, Marcin; Ham, Byoung S; Lee, Jinhyoung

2016-02-15

In quantum game theory, one of the most intriguing and important questions is, "Is it possible to get quantum advantages without any modification of the classical game?" The answer to this question so far has largely been negative. So far, it has usually been thought that a change of the classical game setting appears to be unavoidable for getting the quantum advantages. However, we give an affirmative answer here, focusing on the decision-making process (we call 'reasoning') to generate the best strategy, which may occur internally, e.g., in the player's brain. To show this, we consider a classical guessing game. We then define a one-player reasoning problem in the context of the decision-making theory, where the machinery processes are designed to simulate classical and quantum reasoning. In such settings, we present a scenario where a rational player is able to make better use of his/her weak preferences due to quantum reasoning, without any altering or resetting of the classically defined game. We also argue in further analysis that the quantum reasoning may make the player fail, and even make the situation worse, due to any inappropriate preferences.

A Multimetric Approach for Handoff Decision in Heterogeneous Wireless Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kustiawan, I.; Purnama, W.

2018-02-01

Seamless mobility and service continuity anywhere at any time are an important issue in the wireless Internet. This research proposes a scheme to make handoff decisions effectively in heterogeneous wireless networks using a fuzzy system. Our design lies in an inference engine which takes RSS (received signal strength), data rate, network latency, and user preference as strategic determinants. The logic of our engine is realized on a UE (user equipment) side in faster reaction to network dynamics while roaming across different radio access technologies. The fuzzy system handles four metrics jointly to deduce a moderate decision about when to initiate handoff. The performance of our design is evaluated by simulating move-out mobility scenarios. Simulation results show that our scheme outperforms other approaches in terms of reducing unnecessary handoff.

Incorporating individual health-protective decisions into disease transmission models: a mathematical framework.

PubMed

Durham, David P; Casman, Elizabeth A

2012-03-07

It is anticipated that the next generation of computational epidemic models will simulate both infectious disease transmission and dynamic human behaviour change. Individual agents within a simulation will not only infect one another, but will also have situational awareness and a decision algorithm that enables them to modify their behaviour. This paper develops such a model of behavioural response, presenting a mathematical interpretation of a well-known psychological model of individual decision making, the health belief model, suitable for incorporation within an agent-based disease-transmission model. We formalize the health belief model and demonstrate its application in modelling the prevalence of facemask use observed over the course of the 2003 Hong Kong SARS epidemic, a well-documented example of behaviour change in response to a disease outbreak.

Incorporating individual health-protective decisions into disease transmission models: a mathematical framework

PubMed Central

Durham, David P.; Casman, Elizabeth A.

2012-01-01

It is anticipated that the next generation of computational epidemic models will simulate both infectious disease transmission and dynamic human behaviour change. Individual agents within a simulation will not only infect one another, but will also have situational awareness and a decision algorithm that enables them to modify their behaviour. This paper develops such a model of behavioural response, presenting a mathematical interpretation of a well-known psychological model of individual decision making, the health belief model, suitable for incorporation within an agent-based disease-transmission model. We formalize the health belief model and demonstrate its application in modelling the prevalence of facemask use observed over the course of the 2003 Hong Kong SARS epidemic, a well-documented example of behaviour change in response to a disease outbreak. PMID:21775324

Rehearsing decisions may help teenagers: an evaluation of a simulation game.

PubMed

Alemi, F; Cherry, F; Meffert, G

1989-01-01

This paper presents a new approach to preventing adolescent pregnancy. Information alone is not sufficient to prevent teenage pregnancy. The teenagers ability to choose and remain committed to a decision also needs to be developed. Because decision making skills are best learned through practice in an environment with frequent feedback, we have developed a computer game which simulates the consequences of different sexual roles. In addition, the game is intended to increase communication about sex between teenagers and their role models (peers, teachers and/or parents). Increased communication is expected to reduce the feeling of guilt and lead to either consistent abstention from sex or consistent contraceptive use. The paper reports on the development of the computer game and the preliminary evaluation of its impact.

Application of an interactive water simulation model in urban water management: a case study in Amsterdam.

PubMed

Leskens, J G; Brugnach, M; Hoekstra, A Y

2014-01-01

Water simulation models are available to support decision-makers in urban water management. To use current water simulation models, special expertise is required. Therefore, model information is prepared prior to work sessions, in which decision-makers weigh different solutions. However, this model information quickly becomes outdated when new suggestions for solutions arise and are therefore limited in use. We suggest that new model techniques, i.e. fast and flexible computation algorithms and realistic visualizations, allow this problem to be solved by using simulation models during work sessions. A new Interactive Water Simulation Model was applied for two case study areas in Amsterdam and was used in two workshops. In these workshops, the Interactive Water Simulation Model was positively received. It included non-specialist participants in the process of suggesting and selecting possible solutions and made them part of the accompanying discussions and negotiations. It also provided the opportunity to evaluate and enhance possible solutions more often within the time horizon of a decision-making process. Several preconditions proved to be important for successfully applying the Interactive Water Simulation Model, such as the willingness of the stakeholders to participate and the preparation of different general main solutions that can be used for further iterations during a work session.

Spatial and Temporal Flood Risk Assessment for Decision Making Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan-Mohd-Sabki Wan

2018-03-01

Heavy rainfall, adversely impacting inundation areas, depends on the magnitude of the flood. Significantly, location of settlements, infrastructure and facilities in floodplains result in many regions facing flooding risks. A problem faced by the decision maker in an assessment of flood vulnerability and evaluation of adaptation measures is recurrent flooding in the same areas. Identification of recurrent flooding areas and frequency of floods should be priorities for flood risk management. However, spatial and temporal variability become major factors of uncertainty in flood risk management. Therefore, dynamic and spatial characteristics of these changes in flood impact assessment are important in making decisions about the future of infrastructure development and community life. System dynamics (SD) simulation and hydrodynamic modelling are presented as tools for modelling the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and spatial variability. This paper discusses the integration between spatial and temporal information that is required by the decision maker for the identification of multi-criteria decision problems involving multiple stakeholders.

External audit of clinical practice and medical decision making in a new Asian oncology center: Results and implications for both developing and developed nations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shakespeare, Thomas P.; Back, Michael F.; Lu, Jiade J.

2006-03-01

Purpose: The external audit of oncologist clinical practice is increasingly important because of the incorporation of audits into national maintenance of certification (MOC) programs. However, there are few reports of external audits of oncology practice or decision making. Our institution (The Cancer Institute, Singapore) was asked to externally audit an oncology department in a developing Asian nation, providing a unique opportunity to explore the feasibility of such a process. Methods and Materials: We audited 100 randomly selected patients simulated for radiotherapy in 2003, using a previously reported audit instrument assessing clinical documentation/quality assurance and medical decision making. Results: Clinical documentation/qualitymore » assurance, decision making, and overall performance criteria were adequate 74.4%, 88.3%, and 80.2% of the time, respectively. Overall 52.0% of cases received suboptimal management. Multivariate analysis revealed palliative intent was associated with improved documentation/clinical quality assurance (p = 0.07), decision making (p 0.007), overall performance (p = 0.003), and optimal treatment rates (p 0.07); non-small-cell lung cancer or central nervous system primary sites were associated with better decision making (p = 0.001), overall performance (p = 0.03), and optimal treatment rates (p = 0.002). Conclusions: Despite the poor results, the external audit had several benefits. It identified learning needs for future targeting, and the auditor provided facilitating feedback to address systematic errors identified. Our experience was also helpful in refining our national revalidation audit instrument. The feasibility of the external audit supports the consideration of including audit in national MOC programs.« less

Beyond pain: modeling decision-making deficits in chronic pain

PubMed Central

Hess, Leonardo Emanuel; Haimovici, Ariel; Muñoz, Miguel Angel; Montoya, Pedro

2014-01-01

Risky decision-making seems to be markedly disrupted in patients with chronic pain, probably due to the high cost that impose pain and negative mood on executive control functions. Patients’ behavioral performance on decision-making tasks such as the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is characterized by selecting cards more frequently from disadvantageous than from advantageous decks, and by switching often between competing responses in comparison with healthy controls (HCs). In the present study, we developed a simple heuristic model to simulate individuals’ choice behavior by varying the level of decision randomness and the importance given to gains and losses. The findings revealed that the model was able to differentiate the behavioral performance of patients with chronic pain and HCs at the group, as well as at the individual level. The best fit of the model in patients with chronic pain was yielded when decisions were not based on previous choices and when gains were considered more relevant than losses. By contrast, the best account of the available data in HCs was obtained when decisions were based on previous experiences and losses loomed larger than gains. In conclusion, our model seems to provide useful information to measure each individual participant extensively, and to deal with the data on a participant-by-participant basis. PMID:25136301

Beyond pain: modeling decision-making deficits in chronic pain.

PubMed

Hess, Leonardo Emanuel; Haimovici, Ariel; Muñoz, Miguel Angel; Montoya, Pedro

2014-01-01

Risky decision-making seems to be markedly disrupted in patients with chronic pain, probably due to the high cost that impose pain and negative mood on executive control functions. Patients' behavioral performance on decision-making tasks such as the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) is characterized by selecting cards more frequently from disadvantageous than from advantageous decks, and by switching often between competing responses in comparison with healthy controls (HCs). In the present study, we developed a simple heuristic model to simulate individuals' choice behavior by varying the level of decision randomness and the importance given to gains and losses. The findings revealed that the model was able to differentiate the behavioral performance of patients with chronic pain and HCs at the group, as well as at the individual level. The best fit of the model in patients with chronic pain was yielded when decisions were not based on previous choices and when gains were considered more relevant than losses. By contrast, the best account of the available data in HCs was obtained when decisions were based on previous experiences and losses loomed larger than gains. In conclusion, our model seems to provide useful information to measure each individual participant extensively, and to deal with the data on a participant-by-participant basis.

Better Decision Making Through Representation and Reduction of Uncertainty in C3I Information Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-11-01

preparatory experiments 61 Research objectives 61 Researchers roles 61 Experimental methods 62 The Battle Lab experiment 62 The Field experiment 63...2004). Previous stages of research were based on observations by the research team in a company-level simulation experiment and a brigade-level field ...times , ,.." , , ,.. 26 III Request for infonnation 26 Frequencies ofinformation requests 27 Effects ofadditional information on decision quality 28

Newtonian chimpanzees? A molecular dynamics approach to understanding decision-making by wild chimpanzees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westley, Matthew; Sen, Surajit; Sinha, Anindya

2014-07-01

In this study, we computationally investigate decision-making by individuals and the ensuing social structure of a primate species, chimpanzees, using Newton's equations of classical mechanics, as opposed to agentbased analyses in which individual chimpanzees make independent decisions. Our model uses molecular dynamics simulation techniques to solve Newton's equations and is able to approximate the movements of female and male chimpanzees, especially in relation to the available food resources, in a manner that is consistent with their observed behavior in natural habitats. It is noteworthy that our Newtonian dynamics-based model may allow us to make certain specific observations of their behaviour, some of which may be difficult to achieve through agent-based modelling exercises or even field studies. Chimpanzees tend to live in fission-fusion social groups, with varying number of individuals, in which both females and males tend to display intrasexual competition for valuable food resources while the males also compete for oestrus females. Most populations of the species are also restricted to a small range of habitats, a clear indication that they are especially vulnerable to the availability and distribution of food sources. With reasonable assumptions of chimpanzee behaviour, we have been able to analyse the clustering behaviour of individuals in relation to local food sources as also patterns of their migration across groups. Our simulated results are qualitatively consistent with field observations conducted on a particular semi-isolated population of chimpanzees in Bossou, Guinea, in western Africa.

Risk-Taking Behavior in a Computerized Driving Task: Brain Activation Correlates of Decision-Making, Outcome, and Peer Influence in Male Adolescents.

PubMed

Vorobyev, Victor; Kwon, Myoung Soo; Moe, Dagfinn; Parkkola, Riitta; Hämäläinen, Heikki

2015-01-01

Increased propensity for risky behavior in adolescents, particularly in peer groups, is thought to reflect maturational imbalance between reward processing and cognitive control systems that affect decision-making. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate brain functional correlates of risk-taking behavior and effects of peer influence in 18-19-year-old male adolescents. The subjects were divided into low and high risk-taking groups using either personality tests or risk-taking rates in a simulated driving task. The fMRI data were analyzed for decision-making (whether to take a risk at intersections) and outcome (pass or crash) phases, and for the influence of peer competition. Personality test-based groups showed no difference in the amount of risk-taking (similarly increased during peer competition) and brain activation. When groups were defined by actual task performance, risk-taking activated two areas in the left medial prefrontal cortex (PFC) significantly more in low than in high risk-takers. In the entire sample, risky decision-specific activation was found in the anterior and dorsal cingulate, superior parietal cortex, basal ganglia (including the nucleus accumbens), midbrain, thalamus, and hypothalamus. Peer competition increased outcome-related activation in the right caudate head and cerebellar vermis in the entire sample. Our results suggest that the activation of the medial (rather than lateral) PFC and striatum is most specific to risk-taking behavior of male adolescents in a simulated driving situation, and reflect a stronger conflict and thus increased cognitive effort to take risks in low risk-takers, and reward anticipation for risky decisions, respectively. The activation of the caudate nucleus, particularly for the positive outcome (pass) during peer competition, further suggests enhanced reward processing of risk-taking under peer influence.

Individual differences in cognition, affect, and performance: Behavioral, neuroimaging, and molecular genetic approaches

PubMed Central

Parasuraman, Raja; Jiang, Yang

2012-01-01

We describe the use of behavioral, neuroimaging, and genetic methods to examine individual differences in cognition and affect, guided by three criteria: (1) relevance to human performance in work and everyday settings; (2) interactions between working memory, decision-making, and affective processing; and (3) examination of individual differences. The results of behavioral, functional MRI (fMRI), event-related potential (ERP), and molecular genetic studies show that analyses at the group level often mask important findings associated with sub-groups of individuals. Dopaminergic/noradrenergic genes influencing prefrontal cortex activity contribute to inter-individual variation in working memory and decision behavior, including performance in complex simulations of military decision-making. The interactive influences of individual differences in anxiety, sensation seeking, and boredom susceptibility on evaluative decision-making can be systematically described using ERP and fMRI methods. We conclude that a multi-modal neuroergonomic approach to examining brain function (using both neuroimaging and molecular genetics) can be usefully applied to understanding individual differences in cognition and affect and has implications for human performance at work. PMID:21569853

The Effect of Ownship Information and NexRad Resolution on Pilot Decision Making in the Use of a Cockpit Weather Information Display

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Novacek, Paul F.; Burgess, Malcolm A.; Heck, Michael L.; Stokes, Alan F.; Stough, H. Paul, III (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A two-phase experiment was conducted to explore the effects of data-link weather displays upon pilot decision performance. The experiment was conducted with 49 instrument rated pilots who were divided into four groups and placed in a simulator with a realistic flight scenario involving weather containing convective activity. The inflight weather display depicted NEXRAD images, with graphical and textual METARs over a moving map display. The experiment explored the effect of weather information, ownship position symbology and NEXRAD cell size resolution. The phase-two experiment compared two groups using the data-linked weather display with ownship position symbology. These groups were compared to the phase-one group that did not have ownship position symbology. The phase-two pilots were presented with either large NEXRAD cell size (8 km) or small cell size (4 km). Observations noted that the introduction of ownship symbology did not appear to significantly impact the decision making process, however, the introduction of ownship did reduce workload. Additionally, NEXRAD cell size resolution did appear to influence the tactical decision making process.

Multi-Criteria Decision Making For Determining A Simple Model of Supplier Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harwati

2017-06-01

Supplier selection is a decision with many criteria. Supplier selection model usually involves more than five main criteria and more than 10 sub-criteria. In fact many model includes more than 20 criteria. Too many criteria involved in supplier selection models sometimes make it difficult to apply in many companies. This research focuses on designing supplier selection that easy and simple to be applied in the company. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to weighting criteria. The analysis results there are four criteria that are easy and simple can be used to select suppliers: Price (weight 0.4) shipment (weight 0.3), quality (weight 0.2) and services (weight 0.1). A real case simulation shows that simple model provides the same decision with a more complex model.

AQUATOOL, a generalized decision-support system for water-resources planning and operational management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreu, J.; Capilla, J.; Sanchís, E.

1996-04-01

This paper describes a generic decision-support system (DSS) which was originally designed for the planning stage of dicision-making associated with complex river basins. Subsequently, it was expanded to incorporate modules relating to the operational stage of decision-making. Computer-assisted design modules allow any complex water-resource system to be represented in graphical form, giving access to geographically referenced databases and knowledge bases. The modelling capability includes basin simulation and optimization modules, an aquifer flow modelling module and two modules for risk assessment. The Segura and Tagus river basins have been used as case studies in the development and validation phases. The value of this DSS is demonstrated by the fact that both River Basin Agencies currently use a version for the efficient management of their water resources.

Study on optimized decision-making model of offshore wind power projects investment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Tian; Yang, Shangdong; Gao, Guowei; Ma, Li

2018-02-01

China’s offshore wind energy is of great potential and plays an important role in promoting China’s energy structure adjustment. However, the current development of offshore wind power in China is inadequate, and is much less developed than that of onshore wind power. On the basis of considering all kinds of risks faced by offshore wind power development, an optimized model of offshore wind power investment decision is established in this paper by proposing the risk-benefit assessment method. To prove the practicability of this method in improving the selection of wind power projects, python programming is used to simulate the investment analysis of a large number of projects. Therefore, the paper is dedicated to provide decision-making support for the sound development of offshore wind power industry.

Distributed decision support for the 21st century mission space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McQuay, William K.

2002-07-01

The past decade has produced significant changes in the conduct of military operations: increased humanitarian missions, asymmetric warfare, the reliance on coalitions and allies, stringent rules of engagement, concern about casualties, and the need for sustained air operations. Future mission commanders will need to assimilate a tremendous amount of information, make quick-response decisions, and quantify the effects of those decisions in the face of uncertainty. Integral to this process is creating situational assessment-understanding the mission space, simulation to analyze alternative futures, current capabilities, planning assessments, course-of-action assessments, and a common operational picture-keeping everyone on the same sheet of paper. Decision support tools in a distributed collaborative environment offer the capability of decomposing these complex multitask processes and distributing them over a dynamic set of execution assets. Decision support technologies can semi-automate activities, such as planning an operation, that have a reasonably well-defined process and provide machine-level interfaces to refine the myriad of information that is not currently fused. The marriage of information and simulation technologies provides the mission commander with a collaborative virtual environment for planning and decision support.

Hydraulic Characteristics Of Two Bicycle-Safe Grate Inlet Designs

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1988-12-01

Expert Systems are computer programs designed to include a simulation of the reasoning and decision-making processes of human experts. This report provides a set of general guidelines for the development and distribution of highway related expert sys...

Growth Dynamics of Information Search Services

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lindquist, Mats G.

1978-01-01

An analysis of computer-based search services (ISSs) from a system's viewpoint, using a continuous simulation model to reveal growth and stagnation of a typical system is presented, as well as an analysis of decision making for an ISS. (Author/MBR)

Practice Options and Decision Making for Dental Students.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Manski, Richard J.

1987-01-01

One dental school implemented in its fourth-year curriculum an intensive simulation exercise to teach students the application of fundamental economic concepts such as capital costs, leasehold improvements, operating expenses, working capital, and financial risk in dental practice. (MSE)

SARDA: An Integrated Concept for Airport Surface Operations Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, Gautam; Hoang, Ty; Jung, Yoon Chul

2013-01-01

The Spot and Runway Departure Advisor (SARDA) is an integrated decision support tool for airlines and air traffic control tower enabling surface collaborative decision making (CDM) and departure metering in order to enhance efficiency of surface operations at congested airports. The presentation describes the concept and architecture of the SARDA as a CDM tool, and the results from a human-in-the-loop simulation of the tool conducted in 2012 at the FutureFlight Central, the tower simulation facility. Also, presented is the current activities and future plan for SARDA development. The presentation was given at the meeting with the FAA senior advisor of the Surface Operations Office.

Incorporating population viability models into species status assessment and listing decisions under the U.S. Endangered Species Act

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Allan, Nathan; Servoss, Jeff; Hedwall, Shaula J.; Wooldridge, Brian

2017-01-01

Assessment of a species' status is a key part of management decision making for endangered and threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Predicting the future state of the species is an essential part of species status assessment, and projection models can play an important role in developing predictions. We built a stochastic simulation model that incorporated parametric and environmental uncertainty to predict the probable future status of the Sonoran desert tortoise in the southwestern United States and North Central Mexico. Sonoran desert tortoise was a Candidate species for listing under the Endangered Species Act, and decision makers wanted to use model predictions in their decision making process. The model accounted for future habitat loss and possible effects of climate change induced droughts to predict future population growth rates, abundances, and quasi-extinction probabilities. Our model predicts that the population will likely decline over the next few decades, but there is very low probability of quasi-extinction less than 75 years into the future. Increases in drought frequency and intensity may increase extinction risk for the species. Our model helped decision makers predict and characterize uncertainty about the future status of the species in their listing decision. We incorporated complex ecological processes (e.g., climate change effects on tortoises) in transparent and explicit ways tailored to support decision making processes related to endangered species.

Knowledge Co-production Strategies for Water Resources Modeling and Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gober, P.

2016-12-01

The limited impact of scientific information on policy making and climate adaptation in North America has raised awareness of the need for new modeling strategies and knowledge transfer processes. This paper outlines the rationale for a new paradigm in water resources modeling and management, using examples from the USA and Canada. Principles include anticipatory modeling, complex system dynamics, decision making under uncertainty, visualization, capacity to represent and manipulate critical trade-offs, stakeholder engagement, local knowledge, context-specific activities, social learning, vulnerability analysis, iterative and collaborative modeling, and the concept of a boundary organization. In this framework, scientists and stakeholders are partners in the production and dissemination of knowledge for decision making, and local knowledge is fused with scientific observation and methodology. Discussion draws from experience in building long-term collaborative boundary organizations in Phoenix, Arizona in the USA and the Saskatchewan River Basin (SRB) in Canada. Examples of boundary spanning activities include the use of visualization, the concept of a decision theater, infrastructure to support social learning, social networks, and reciprocity, simulation modeling to explore "what if" scenarios of the future, surveys to elicit how water problems are framed by scientists and stakeholders, and humanistic activities (theatrical performances, art exhibitions, etc.) to draw attention to local water issues. The social processes surrounding model development and dissemination are at least as important as modeling assumptions, procedures, and results in determining whether scientific knowledge will be used effectively for water resources decision making.

A Strategic Model for the Business Communication Field Training Decision in the Commercial Enterprises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ioannis, Seimenis; Damianos, Sakas P.; Nikolaos, Konstantopoulos

2009-08-01

This article examines the factors that affect the decision making of the training managers responsible in case of business communication field as they have emerged from the study of the decision that have taken place in the commercial sector in this specific Greek market. Previous researches have indicated the participation of a number of variables in this kind of decision. The aim of this article is to locate the main factors which determine, in the commercial sector the decision for the training of the employees in the field of business communication. On the basis of quality research, dynamic simulation model have been created for some of this main factors.

RELATING ACCUMULATOR MODEL PARAMETERS AND NEURAL DYNAMICS

PubMed Central

Purcell, Braden A.; Palmeri, Thomas J.

2016-01-01

Accumulator models explain decision-making as an accumulation of evidence to a response threshold. Specific model parameters are associated with specific model mechanisms, such as the time when accumulation begins, the average rate of evidence accumulation, and the threshold. These mechanisms determine both the within-trial dynamics of evidence accumulation and the predicted behavior. Cognitive modelers usually infer what mechanisms vary during decision-making by seeing what parameters vary when a model is fitted to observed behavior. The recent identification of neural activity with evidence accumulation suggests that it may be possible to directly infer what mechanisms vary from an analysis of how neural dynamics vary. However, evidence accumulation is often noisy, and noise complicates the relationship between accumulator dynamics and the underlying mechanisms leading to those dynamics. To understand what kinds of inferences can be made about decision-making mechanisms based on measures of neural dynamics, we measured simulated accumulator model dynamics while systematically varying model parameters. In some cases, decision- making mechanisms can be directly inferred from dynamics, allowing us to distinguish between models that make identical behavioral predictions. In other cases, however, different parameterized mechanisms produce surprisingly similar dynamics, limiting the inferences that can be made based on measuring dynamics alone. Analyzing neural dynamics can provide a powerful tool to resolve model mimicry at the behavioral level, but we caution against drawing inferences based solely on neural analyses. Instead, simultaneous modeling of behavior and neural dynamics provides the most powerful approach to understand decision-making and likely other aspects of cognition and perception. PMID:28392584

Estimating the impact of enterprise resource planning project management decisions on post-implementation maintenance costs: a case study using simulation modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fryling, Meg

2010-11-01

Organisations often make implementation decisions with little consideration for the maintenance phase of an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system, resulting in significant recurring maintenance costs. Poor cost estimations are likely related to the lack of an appropriate framework for enterprise-wide pre-packaged software maintenance, which requires an ongoing relationship with the software vendor (Markus, M.L., Tanis, C., and Fenema, P.C., 2000. Multisite ERP implementation. CACM, 43 (4), 42-46). The end result is that critical project decisions are made with little empirical data, resulting in substantial long-term cost impacts. The product of this research is a formal dynamic simulation model that enables theory testing, scenario exploration and policy analysis. The simulation model ERPMAINT1 was developed by combining and extending existing frameworks in several research domains, and by incorporating quantitative and qualitative case study data. The ERPMAINT1 model evaluates tradeoffs between different ERP project management decisions and their impact on post-implementation total cost of ownership (TCO). Through model simulations a variety of dynamic insights were revealed that could assist ERP project managers. Major findings from the simulation show that upfront investments in mentoring and system exposure translate to long-term cost savings. The findings also indicate that in addition to customisations, add-ons have a significant impact on TCO.

Nine Men Plus. Supreme Court Opinions on Free Speech and Free Press. An Academic Game Simulation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gorden, William I.

The format of this text is dialogue--dialogue which involves formulating answers to knotty kinds of questions about free speech and free press which have worked their way to the Supreme Court. But it is a test meant to be played rather than read. Small groups within a classroom can simulate the Court's decision making process after minimal…

Using multi-criteria decision making for selection of the optimal strategy for municipal solid waste management.

PubMed

Jovanovic, Sasa; Savic, Slobodan; Jovicic, Nebojsa; Boskovic, Goran; Djordjevic, Zorica

2016-09-01

Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) is a relatively new tool for decision makers who deal with numerous and often contradictory factors during their decision making process. This paper presents a procedure to choose the optimal municipal solid waste (MSW) management system for the area of the city of Kragujevac (Republic of Serbia) based on the MCDM method. Two methods of multiple attribute decision making, i.e. SAW (simple additive weighting method) and TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution), respectively, were used to compare the proposed waste management strategies (WMS). Each of the created strategies was simulated using the software package IWM2. Total values for eight chosen parameters were calculated for all the strategies. Contribution of each of the six waste treatment options was valorized. The SAW analysis was used to obtain the sum characteristics for all the waste management treatment strategies and they were ranked accordingly. The TOPSIS method was used to calculate the relative closeness factors to the ideal solution for all the alternatives. Then, the proposed strategies were ranked in form of tables and diagrams obtained based on both MCDM methods. As shown in this paper, the results were in good agreement, which additionally confirmed and facilitated the choice of the optimal MSW management strategy. © The Author(s) 2016.

Modeling the value for money of changing clinical practice change: a stochastic application in diabetes care.

PubMed

Hoomans, Ties; Abrams, Keith R; Ament, Andre J H A; Evers, Silvia M A A; Severens, Johan L

2009-10-01

Decision making about resource allocation for guideline implementation to change clinical practice is inevitably undertaken in a context of uncertainty surrounding the cost-effectiveness of both clinical guidelines and implementation strategies. Adopting a total net benefit approach, a model was recently developed to overcome problems with the use of combined ratio statistics when analyzing decision uncertainty. To demonstrate the stochastic application of the model for informing decision making about the adoption of an audit and feedback strategy for implementing a guideline recommending intensive blood glucose control in type 2 diabetes in primary care in the Netherlands. An integrated Bayesian approach to decision modeling and evidence synthesis is adopted, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation in WinBUGs. Data on model parameters is gathered from various sources, with effectiveness of implementation being estimated using pooled, random-effects meta-analysis. Decision uncertainty is illustrated using cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and frontier. Decisions about whether to adopt intensified glycemic control and whether to adopt audit and feedback alter for the maximum values that decision makers are willing to pay for health gain. Through simultaneously incorporating uncertain economic evidence on both guidance and implementation strategy, the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier show an increase in decision uncertainty concerning guideline implementation. The stochastic application in diabetes care demonstrates that the model provides a simple and useful tool for quantifying and exploring the (combined) uncertainty associated with decision making about adopting guidelines and implementation strategies and, therefore, for informing decisions about efficient resource allocation to change clinical practice.

Development of the KOSMS management simulation training system and its application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takatsu, Yoshiki

The use of games which simulate actual corporate management has recently become more common and is now utilized in various ways for in-house corporate training courses. KOSMS (Kobe Steel Management Simulation System), a training system designed to help improve the management skills of senior management staff, is a unique management simulation training system in which the participants, using personal computers, must make decisions concerning a variety of management activities, in simulated competition with other corporations. This report outlines the KOSMS system, and describes the basic structure and detailed contents of the management simulation models, and actual application of the KOSMS management simulation training.

Higher Landing Accuracy in Expert Pilots is Associated with Lower Activity in the Caudate Nucleus

PubMed Central

Adamson, Maheen M.; Taylor, Joy L.; Heraldez, Daniel; Khorasani, Allen; Noda, Art; Hernandez, Beatriz; Yesavage, Jerome A.

2014-01-01

The most common lethal accidents in General Aviation are caused by improperly executed landing approaches in which a pilot descends below the minimum safe altitude without proper visual references. To understand how expertise might reduce such erroneous decision-making, we examined relevant neural processes in pilots performing a simulated landing approach inside a functional MRI scanner. Pilots (aged 20–66) were asked to “fly” a series of simulated “cockpit view” instrument landing scenarios in an MRI scanner. The scenarios were either high risk (heavy fog–legally unsafe to land) or low risk (medium fog–legally safe to land). Pilots with one of two levels of expertise participated: Moderate Expertise (Instrument Flight Rules pilots, n = 8) or High Expertise (Certified Instrument Flight Instructors or Air-Transport Pilots, n = 12). High Expertise pilots were more accurate than Moderate Expertise pilots in making a “land” versus “do not land” decision (CFII: d′ = 3.62±2.52; IFR: d′ = 0.98±1.04; p<.01). Brain activity in bilateral caudate nucleus was examined for main effects of expertise during a “land” versus “do not land” decision with the no-decision control condition modeled as baseline. In making landing decisions, High Expertise pilots showed lower activation in the bilateral caudate nucleus (0.97±0.80) compared to Moderate Expertise pilots (1.91±1.16) (p<.05). These findings provide evidence for increased “neural efficiency” in High Expertise pilots relative to Moderate Expertise pilots. During an instrument approach the pilot is engaged in detailed examination of flight instruments while monitoring certain visual references for making landing decisions. The caudate nucleus regulates saccade eye control of gaze, the brain area where the “expertise” effect was observed. These data provide evidence that performing “real world” aviation tasks in an fMRI provide objective data regarding the relative expertise of pilots and brain regions involved in it. PMID:25426935

Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation in the Dilemma Zone

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-12-01

The goal of this study is to develop a realistic dilemma zone (DZ) model that considers the effects of factors surrounding vehicles at an intersection, particularly focusing on driver decision-making behavior, such as the presence of a pedestrian cou...

Discussing Animal Rights and Animal Research in the Classroom.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herzog, Harold A.

1990-01-01

Reviews two prominent philosophical justifications for animal liberation and describes a simulation that facilitates class discussion of animal research issues. Students reported that the exercise increased their awareness of the issues and of the complexity of making ethical decisions. (DB)

The AgESGUI geospatial simulation system for environmental model application and evaluation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Practical decision making in spatially-distributed environmental assessment and management is increasingly being based on environmental process-based models linked to geographical information systems (GIS). Furthermore, powerful computers and Internet-accessible assessment tools are providing much g...

HUMAN DECISIONS AND MACHINE PREDICTIONS.

PubMed

Kleinberg, Jon; Lakkaraju, Himabindu; Leskovec, Jure; Ludwig, Jens; Mullainathan, Sendhil

2018-02-01

Can machine learning improve human decision making? Bail decisions provide a good test case. Millions of times each year, judges make jail-or-release decisions that hinge on a prediction of what a defendant would do if released. The concreteness of the prediction task combined with the volume of data available makes this a promising machine-learning application. Yet comparing the algorithm to judges proves complicated. First, the available data are generated by prior judge decisions. We only observe crime outcomes for released defendants, not for those judges detained. This makes it hard to evaluate counterfactual decision rules based on algorithmic predictions. Second, judges may have a broader set of preferences than the variable the algorithm predicts; for instance, judges may care specifically about violent crimes or about racial inequities. We deal with these problems using different econometric strategies, such as quasi-random assignment of cases to judges. Even accounting for these concerns, our results suggest potentially large welfare gains: one policy simulation shows crime reductions up to 24.7% with no change in jailing rates, or jailing rate reductions up to 41.9% with no increase in crime rates. Moreover, all categories of crime, including violent crimes, show reductions; and these gains can be achieved while simultaneously reducing racial disparities. These results suggest that while machine learning can be valuable, realizing this value requires integrating these tools into an economic framework: being clear about the link between predictions and decisions; specifying the scope of payoff functions; and constructing unbiased decision counterfactuals. JEL Codes: C10 (Econometric and statistical methods and methodology), C55 (Large datasets: Modeling and analysis), K40 (Legal procedure, the legal system, and illegal behavior).

HUMAN DECISIONS AND MACHINE PREDICTIONS*

PubMed Central

Kleinberg, Jon; Lakkaraju, Himabindu; Leskovec, Jure; Ludwig, Jens; Mullainathan, Sendhil

2018-01-01

Can machine learning improve human decision making? Bail decisions provide a good test case. Millions of times each year, judges make jail-or-release decisions that hinge on a prediction of what a defendant would do if released. The concreteness of the prediction task combined with the volume of data available makes this a promising machine-learning application. Yet comparing the algorithm to judges proves complicated. First, the available data are generated by prior judge decisions. We only observe crime outcomes for released defendants, not for those judges detained. This makes it hard to evaluate counterfactual decision rules based on algorithmic predictions. Second, judges may have a broader set of preferences than the variable the algorithm predicts; for instance, judges may care specifically about violent crimes or about racial inequities. We deal with these problems using different econometric strategies, such as quasi-random assignment of cases to judges. Even accounting for these concerns, our results suggest potentially large welfare gains: one policy simulation shows crime reductions up to 24.7% with no change in jailing rates, or jailing rate reductions up to 41.9% with no increase in crime rates. Moreover, all categories of crime, including violent crimes, show reductions; and these gains can be achieved while simultaneously reducing racial disparities. These results suggest that while machine learning can be valuable, realizing this value requires integrating these tools into an economic framework: being clear about the link between predictions and decisions; specifying the scope of payoff functions; and constructing unbiased decision counterfactuals. JEL Codes: C10 (Econometric and statistical methods and methodology), C55 (Large datasets: Modeling and analysis), K40 (Legal procedure, the legal system, and illegal behavior) PMID:29755141

Simulation of Optimal Decision-Making Under the Impacts of Climate Change.

PubMed

Møller, Lea Ravnkilde; Drews, Martin; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

2017-07-01

Climate change causes transformations to the conditions of existing agricultural practices appointing farmers to continuously evaluate their agricultural strategies, e.g., towards optimising revenue. In this light, this paper presents a framework for applying Bayesian updating to simulate decision-making, reaction patterns and updating of beliefs among farmers in a developing country, when faced with the complexity of adapting agricultural systems to climate change. We apply the approach to a case study from Ghana, where farmers seek to decide on the most profitable of three agricultural systems (dryland crops, irrigated crops and livestock) by a continuous updating of beliefs relative to realised trajectories of climate (change), represented by projections of temperature and precipitation. The climate data is based on combinations of output from three global/regional climate model combinations and two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) representing moderate and unsubstantial greenhouse gas reduction policies, respectively. The results indicate that the climate scenario (input) holds a significant influence on the development of beliefs, net revenues and thereby optimal farming practices. Further, despite uncertainties in the underlying net revenue functions, the study shows that when the beliefs of the farmer (decision-maker) opposes the development of the realised climate, the Bayesian methodology allows for simulating an adjustment of such beliefs, when improved information becomes available. The framework can, therefore, help facilitating the optimal choice between agricultural systems considering the influence of climate change.

Monte Carlo Simulation of Effective Coordination Mechanisms for e-Commerce

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sakas, D. P.; Vlachos, D. S.; Simos, T. E.

2008-11-01

Making decisions in a dynamic environment is considered extremely important in today's market. Decision trees which can be used to model these systems, are not easily constructed and solved, especially in the case of infinite sets of consequences (for example, consider the case where only the mean and the variance of an outcome is known). In this work, discrete approximation and Monte Carlo techniques are used to overcome the aforementioned difficulties.

Attitudes and decision-making about early-infant versus early-adolescent male circumcision: Demand-side insights for sustainable HIV prevention strategies in Zambia and Zimbabwe.

PubMed

Sgaier, Sema K; Sharma, Sunny; Eletskaya, Maria; Prasad, Ram; Mugurungi, Owen; Tambatamba, Bushimbwa; Ncube, Getrude; Xaba, Sinokuthemba; Nanga, Alice; Gumede-Moyo, Sehlulekile; Kretschmer, Steve

2017-01-01

As countries approach their scale-up targets for the voluntary medical male circumcision program for HIV prevention, they are strategizing and planning for the sustainability phase to follow. Global guidance recommends circumcising adolescent (below 14 years) and/or early infant boys (aged 0-60 days), and countries need to consider several factors before prioritizing a cohort for their sustainability phase. We provide community and healthcare provider-side insights on attitudes and decision-making process as a key input for this strategic decision in Zambia and Zimbabwe. We studied expectant parents, parents of infant boys (aged 0-60 days), family members and neo-natal and ante-natal healthcare providers in Zambia and Zimbabwe. Our integrated methodology consisted of in-depth qualitative and quantitative one-on-one interviews, and a simulated-decision-making game, to uncover attitudes towards, and the decision-making process for, early adolescent or early infant medical circumcision (EAMC or EIMC). In both countries, parents viewed early infancy and early adolescence as equally ideal ages for circumcision (38% EIMC vs. 37% EAMC in Zambia; 24% vs. 27% in Zimbabwe). If offered for free, about half of Zambian parents and almost 2 in 5 Zimbabwean parents indicated they would likely circumcise their infant boy; however, half of parents in each country perceived that the community would not accept EIMC. Nurses believed their facilities currently could not absorb EIMC services and that they would have limited ability to influence fathers, who were seen as having the primary decision-making authority. Our analysis suggests that EAMC is more accepted by the community than EIMC and is the path of least resistance for the sustainability phase of VMMC. However, parents or community members do not reject EIMC. Should countries choose to prioritize this cohort for their sustainability phase, a number of barriers around information, decision-making by parents, and supply side will need to be addressed.

Attitudes and decision-making about early-infant versus early-adolescent male circumcision: Demand-side insights for sustainable HIV prevention strategies in Zambia and Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

Sgaier, Sema K.; Sharma, Sunny; Eletskaya, Maria; Prasad, Ram; Mugurungi, Owen; Tambatamba, Bushimbwa; Ncube, Getrude; Xaba, Sinokuthemba; Nanga, Alice; Gumede-Moyo, Sehlulekile; Kretschmer, Steve

2017-01-01

As countries approach their scale-up targets for the voluntary medical male circumcision program for HIV prevention, they are strategizing and planning for the sustainability phase to follow. Global guidance recommends circumcising adolescent (below 14 years) and/or early infant boys (aged 0–60 days), and countries need to consider several factors before prioritizing a cohort for their sustainability phase. We provide community and healthcare provider-side insights on attitudes and decision-making process as a key input for this strategic decision in Zambia and Zimbabwe. We studied expectant parents, parents of infant boys (aged 0–60 days), family members and neo-natal and ante-natal healthcare providers in Zambia and Zimbabwe. Our integrated methodology consisted of in-depth qualitative and quantitative one-on-one interviews, and a simulated-decision-making game, to uncover attitudes towards, and the decision-making process for, early adolescent or early infant medical circumcision (EAMC or EIMC). In both countries, parents viewed early infancy and early adolescence as equally ideal ages for circumcision (38% EIMC vs. 37% EAMC in Zambia; 24% vs. 27% in Zimbabwe). If offered for free, about half of Zambian parents and almost 2 in 5 Zimbabwean parents indicated they would likely circumcise their infant boy; however, half of parents in each country perceived that the community would not accept EIMC. Nurses believed their facilities currently could not absorb EIMC services and that they would have limited ability to influence fathers, who were seen as having the primary decision-making authority. Our analysis suggests that EAMC is more accepted by the community than EIMC and is the path of least resistance for the sustainability phase of VMMC. However, parents or community members do not reject EIMC. Should countries choose to prioritize this cohort for their sustainability phase, a number of barriers around information, decision-making by parents, and supply side will need to be addressed. PMID:28749979

Multistable binary decision making on networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucas, Andrew; Lee, Ching Hua

2013-03-01

We propose a simple model for a binary decision making process on a graph, motivated by modeling social decision making with cooperative individuals. The model is similar to a random field Ising model or fiber bundle model, but with key differences in behavior on heterogeneous networks. For many types of disorder and interactions between the nodes, we predict with mean field theory discontinuous phase transitions that are largely independent of network structure. We show how these phase transitions can also be understood by studying microscopic avalanches and describe how network structure enhances fluctuations in the distribution of avalanches. We suggest theoretically the existence of a “glassy” spectrum of equilibria associated with a typical phase, even on infinite graphs, so long as the first moment of the degree distribution is finite. This behavior implies that the model is robust against noise below a certain scale and also that phase transitions can switch from discontinuous to continuous on networks with too few edges. Numerical simulations suggest that our theory is accurate.

Brain pathways for cognitive-emotional decision making in the human animal.

PubMed

Levine, Daniel S

2009-04-01

As roles for different brain regions become clearer, a picture emerges of how primate prefrontal cortex executive circuitry influences subcortical decision making pathways inherited from other mammals. The human's basic needs or drives can be interpreted as residing in an on-center off-surround network in motivational regions of the hypothalamus and brain stem. Such a network has multiple attractors that, in this case, represent the amount of satisfaction of these needs, and we consider and interpret neurally a continuous-time simulated annealing algorithm for moving between attractors under the influence of noise that represents "discontent" combined with "initiative." For decision making on specific tasks, we employ a variety of rules whose neural circuitry appears to involve the amygdala and the orbital, cingulate, and dorsolateral regions of prefrontal cortex. These areas can be interpreted as connected in a three-layer adaptive resonance network. The vigilance of the network, which is influenced by the state of the hypothalamic needs network, determines the level of sophistication of the rule being utilized.

Does Simulator Sickness Impair Learning Decision Making While Driving a Police Vehicle? (Le mal du simulateur: un frein à l'apprentissage de la prise de décision en conduite d'un véhicule de police?)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paquette, Eve; Bélanger, Danielle-Claude

2015-01-01

The use of driving simulators is an innovation for police training in Quebec. There are some issues related to their impact on training objectives. This article presents the results of a study involving 71 police cadets who participated in six training sessions with a driving simulator. The training sessions were designed for developing the…

Regulator Loss Functions and Hierarchical Modeling for Safety Decision Making.

PubMed

Hatfield, Laura A; Baugh, Christine M; Azzone, Vanessa; Normand, Sharon-Lise T

2017-07-01

Regulators must act to protect the public when evidence indicates safety problems with medical devices. This requires complex tradeoffs among risks and benefits, which conventional safety surveillance methods do not incorporate. To combine explicit regulator loss functions with statistical evidence on medical device safety signals to improve decision making. In the Hospital Cost and Utilization Project National Inpatient Sample, we select pediatric inpatient admissions and identify adverse medical device events (AMDEs). We fit hierarchical Bayesian models to the annual hospital-level AMDE rates, accounting for patient and hospital characteristics. These models produce expected AMDE rates (a safety target), against which we compare the observed rates in a test year to compute a safety signal. We specify a set of loss functions that quantify the costs and benefits of each action as a function of the safety signal. We integrate the loss functions over the posterior distribution of the safety signal to obtain the posterior (Bayes) risk; the preferred action has the smallest Bayes risk. Using simulation and an analysis of AMDE data, we compare our minimum-risk decisions to a conventional Z score approach for classifying safety signals. The 2 rules produced different actions for nearly half of hospitals (45%). In the simulation, decisions that minimize Bayes risk outperform Z score-based decisions, even when the loss functions or hierarchical models are misspecified. Our method is sensitive to the choice of loss functions; eliciting quantitative inputs to the loss functions from regulators is challenging. A decision-theoretic approach to acting on safety signals is potentially promising but requires careful specification of loss functions in consultation with subject matter experts.

Bringing simulation to engineers in the field: a Web 2.0 approach.

PubMed

Haines, Robert; Khan, Kashif; Brooke, John

2009-07-13

Field engineers working on water distribution systems have to implement day-to-day operational decisions. Since pipe networks are highly interconnected, the effects of such decisions are correlated with hydraulic and water quality conditions elsewhere in the network. This makes the provision of predictive decision support tools (DSTs) for field engineers critical to optimizing the engineering work on the network. We describe how we created DSTs to run on lightweight mobile devices by using the Web 2.0 technique known as Software as a Service. We designed our system following the architectural style of representational state transfer. The system not only displays static geographical information system data for pipe networks, but also dynamic information and prediction of network state, by invoking and displaying the results of simulations running on more powerful remote resources.

Mock Pages Are a Valid Construct for Assessment of Clinical Decision Making and Interprofessional Communication.

PubMed

Boehler, Margaret L; Schwind, Cathy J; Markwell, Stephen J; Minter, Rebecca M

2017-01-01

Answering pages from nurses about patients in need of immediate attention is one of the most difficult challenges a resident faces during their first days as a physician. A Mock Page program has been developed and adopted into a national surgical resident preparatory curriculum to prepare senior medical students for this important skill. The purpose of this study is to assess standardized mock page cases as a valid construct to assess clinical decision making and interprofessional communication skills. Mock page cases (n = 16) were administered to 213 senior medical students from 12 medical schools participating in a national surgical resident preparatory curriculum in 2013 and 2014. Clinical decision making and interprofessional communication were measured by case-specific assessments evaluating these skills which have undergone rigorous standard-setting to determine pass/fail cut points. Students' performance improved in general for both communication and clinical decision making over the 4-week course. Cases have been identified that seem to be best suited for differentiating high- from low-performing students. Chest pain, pulmonary embolus, and mental status change cases posed the greatest difficulty for student learners. Simulated mock pages demonstrate an innovative technique for training students in both effective interprofessional communication and management of common postoperative conditions they will encounter as new surgical interns.

Test and Evaluation Metrics of Crew Decision-Making And Aircraft Attitude and Energy State Awareness

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bailey, Randall E.; Ellis, Kyle K. E.; Stephens, Chad L.

2013-01-01

NASA has established a technical challenge, under the Aviation Safety Program, Vehicle Systems Safety Technologies project, to improve crew decision-making and response in complex situations. The specific objective of this challenge is to develop data and technologies which may increase a pilot's (crew's) ability to avoid, detect, and recover from adverse events that could otherwise result in accidents/incidents. Within this technical challenge, a cooperative industry-government research program has been established to develop innovative flight deck-based counter-measures that can improve the crew's ability to avoid, detect, mitigate, and recover from unsafe loss-of-aircraft state awareness - specifically, the loss of attitude awareness (i.e., Spatial Disorientation, SD) or the loss-of-energy state awareness (LESA). A critical component of this research is to develop specific and quantifiable metrics which identify decision-making and the decision-making influences during simulation and flight testing. This paper reviews existing metrics and methods for SD testing and criteria for establishing visual dominance. The development of Crew State Monitoring technologies - eye tracking and other psychophysiological - are also discussed as well as emerging new metrics for identifying channelized attention and excessive pilot workload, both of which have been shown to contribute to SD/LESA accidents or incidents.

An extreme events laboratory to provide network centric collaborative situation assessment and decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panulla, Brian J.; More, Loretta D.; Shumaker, Wade R.; Jones, Michael D.; Hooper, Robert; Vernon, Jeffrey M.; Aungst, Stanley G.

2009-05-01

Rapid improvements in communications infrastructure and sophistication of commercial hand-held devices provide a major new source of information for assessing extreme situations such as environmental crises. In particular, ad hoc collections of humans can act as "soft sensors" to augment data collected by traditional sensors in a net-centric environment (in effect, "crowd-sourcing" observational data). A need exists to understand how to task such soft sensors, characterize their performance and fuse the data with traditional data sources. In order to quantitatively study such situations, as well as study distributed decision-making, we have developed an Extreme Events Laboratory (EEL) at The Pennsylvania State University. This facility provides a network-centric, collaborative situation assessment and decision-making capability by supporting experiments involving human observers, distributed decision making and cognition, and crisis management. The EEL spans the information chain from energy detection via sensors, human observations, signal and image processing, pattern recognition, statistical estimation, multi-sensor data fusion, visualization and analytics, and modeling and simulation. The EEL command center combines COTS and custom collaboration tools in innovative ways, providing capabilities such as geo-spatial visualization and dynamic mash-ups of multiple data sources. This paper describes the EEL and several on-going human-in-the-loop experiments aimed at understanding the new collective observation and analysis landscape.

Network approaches for expert decisions in sports.

PubMed

Glöckner, Andreas; Heinen, Thomas; Johnson, Joseph G; Raab, Markus

2012-04-01

This paper focuses on a model comparison to explain choices based on gaze behavior via simulation procedures. We tested two classes of models, a parallel constraint satisfaction (PCS) artificial neuronal network model and an accumulator model in a handball decision-making task from a lab experiment. Both models predict action in an option-generation task in which options can be chosen from the perspective of a playmaker in handball (i.e., passing to another player or shooting at the goal). Model simulations are based on a dataset of generated options together with gaze behavior measurements from 74 expert handball players for 22 pieces of video footage. We implemented both classes of models as deterministic vs. probabilistic models including and excluding fitted parameters. Results indicated that both classes of models can fit and predict participants' initially generated options based on gaze behavior data, and that overall, the classes of models performed about equally well. Early fixations were thereby particularly predictive for choices. We conclude that the analyses of complex environments via network approaches can be successfully applied to the field of experts' decision making in sports and provide perspectives for further theoretical developments. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ising model for collective decision making during group motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinkoviezky, Itai; Gov, Nir; Couzin, Iain

Collective decision making is a key feature during natural motion of animal groups and is also crucial for human groups. This phenomenon can be exemplified by the scenario of two subgroups that hold conflicting preferred directions of motion. The constraint of group cohesion drives the motion either towards a compromise or towards one of the preferred targets. The transition between compromise and decision has been found in simulations of flock models, but the nature of this transition is not well understood. We present a minimal spin model for this system where we interpret the spin-spin interaction as a social force. This model exhibits both first and second order transitions. The group motion changes from size-dependent diffusion at high temperatures to run-and-tumble motion below the critical temperature. In the presence of minority and majority subgroups, we find that there is a trade-off between the speed of reaching a target and the accuracy. We then compare the results of the spin model to detailed simulations of a flock model, and find overall very similar dynamics, with the role of the temperature taken by the inverse of the number of uninformed individuals.