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Sample records for decision making strategy

  1. Expert decision-making strategies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mosier, Kathleen L.

    1991-01-01

    A recognition-primed decisions (RPD) model is employed as a framework to investigate crew decision-making processes. The quality of information transfer, a critical component of the team RPD model and an indicator of the team's 'collective consciouness', is measured and analyzed with repect to crew performance. As indicated by the RPD model, timing and patterns of information search transfer were expected to reflect extensive and continual situation assessment, and serial evaluation of alternative states of the world or decision response options.

  2. Decision-Making Strategies for College Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morey, Janis T.; Dansereau, Donald F.

    2010-01-01

    College students' decision making is often less than optimal and sometimes leads to negative consequences. The effectiveness of two strategies for improving student decision making--node-link mapping and social perspective taking (SPT)--are examined. Participants using SPT were significantly better able to evaluate decision options and develop…

  3. Strategies for cellular decision-making

    PubMed Central

    Perkins, Theodore J; Swain, Peter S

    2009-01-01

    Stochasticity pervades life at the cellular level. Cells receive stochastic signals, perform detection and transduction with stochastic biochemistry, and grow and die in stochastic environments. Here we review progress in going from the molecular details to the information-processing strategies cells use in their decision-making. Such strategies are fundamentally influenced by stochasticity. We argue that the cellular decision-making can only be probabilistic and occurs at three levels. First, cells must infer from noisy signals the probable current and anticipated future state of their environment. Second, they must weigh the costs and benefits of each potential response, given that future. Third, cells must decide in the presence of other, potentially competitive, decision-makers. In this context, we discuss cooperative responses where some individuals can appear to sacrifice for the common good. We believe that decision-making strategies will be conserved, with comparatively few strategies being implemented by different biochemical mechanisms in many organisms. Determining the strategy of a decision-making network provides a potentially powerful coarse-graining that links systems and evolutionary biology to understand biological design. PMID:19920811

  4. The Effect of Sport on Decision Making Strategies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tozoglu, Erdogan

    2013-01-01

    The decisions people make in the face of circumstances they encounter influence their life in favourable or unfavourable ways. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between sporting habits and decision making strategies among university students. The research involved 1298 students (526 women and 772 men) studying during 2011-2012…

  5. Physician participation in hospital strategic decision making: the effect of hospital strategy and decision content.

    PubMed Central

    Ashmos, D P; McDaniel, R R

    1991-01-01

    An exploratory study examined variation in the participation of physicians in hospital strategic decision making as a function of (1) strategic decision content or (2) hospital strategy, or both. The findings revealed that who participates is a function of decision content while how physicians participate is a function of decision content and the interaction of decision content and hospital strategy. PMID:1869445

  6. Entrepreneurial Decision Making Styles and Learning Strategies Preferences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hestand, Yana

    2012-01-01

    Scope and Method of Study: The scope of this study was the decision making styles and the learning strategies preferences among entrepreneurs. The study utilized a descriptive research design. Internet was utilized as a data collection tool, Participant in the study were 240 entrepreneurs from the Oklahoma state, Tulsa county members of the SBA.…

  7. Cognitive Fatigue Destabilizes Economic Decision Making Preferences and Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Mullette-Gillman, O’Dhaniel A.; Leong, Ruth L. F.; Kurnianingsih, Yoanna A.

    2015-01-01

    Objective It is common for individuals to engage in taxing cognitive activity for prolonged periods of time, resulting in cognitive fatigue that has the potential to produce significant effects in behaviour and decision making. We sought to examine whether cognitive fatigue modulates economic decision making. Methods We employed a between-subject manipulation design, inducing fatigue through 60 to 90 minutes of taxing cognitive engagement against a control group that watched relaxing videos for a matched period of time. Both before and after the manipulation, participants engaged in two economic decision making tasks (one for gains and one for losses). The analyses focused on two areas of economic decision making—preferences and choice strategies. Uncertainty preferences (risk and ambiguity) were quantified as premium values, defined as the degree and direction in which participants alter the valuation of the gamble in comparison to the certain option. The strategies that each participant engaged in were quantified through a choice strategy metric, which contrasts the degree to which choice behaviour relies upon available satisficing or maximizing information. We separately examined these metrics for alterations within both the gains and losses domains, through the two choice tasks. Results The fatigue manipulation resulted in significantly greater levels of reported subjective fatigue, with correspondingly higher levels of reported effort during the cognitively taxing activity. Cognitive fatigue did not alter uncertainty preferences (risk or ambiguity) or informational strategies, in either the gains or losses domains. Rather, cognitive fatigue resulted in greater test-retest variability across most of our economic measures. These results indicate that cognitive fatigue destabilizes economic decision making, resulting in inconsistent preferences and informational strategies that may significantly reduce decision quality. PMID:26230404

  8. Strategy selection in cue-based decision making.

    PubMed

    Bryant, David J

    2014-06-01

    People can make use of a range of heuristic and rational, compensatory strategies to perform a multiple-cue judgment task. It has been proposed that people are sensitive to the amount of cognitive effort required to employ decision strategies. Experiment 1 employed a dual-task methodology to investigate whether participants' preference for heuristic versus compensatory decision strategies can be altered by increasing the cognitive demands of the task. As indicated by participants' decision times, a secondary task interfered more with the performance of a heuristic than compensatory decision strategy but did not affect the proportions of participants using either type of strategy. A stimulus set effect suggested that the conjunction of cue salience and cue validity might play a determining role in strategy selection. The results of Experiment 2 indicated that when a perceptually salient cue was also the most valid, the majority of participants preferred a single-cue heuristic strategy. Overall, the results contradict the view that heuristics are more likely to be adopted when a task is made more cognitively demanding. It is argued that people employ 2 learning processes during training, one an associative learning process in which cue-outcome associations are developed by sampling multiple cues, and another that involves the sequential examination of single cues to serve as a basis for a single-cue heuristic.

  9. Strategy selection in cue-based decision making.

    PubMed

    Bryant, David J

    2014-06-01

    People can make use of a range of heuristic and rational, compensatory strategies to perform a multiple-cue judgment task. It has been proposed that people are sensitive to the amount of cognitive effort required to employ decision strategies. Experiment 1 employed a dual-task methodology to investigate whether participants' preference for heuristic versus compensatory decision strategies can be altered by increasing the cognitive demands of the task. As indicated by participants' decision times, a secondary task interfered more with the performance of a heuristic than compensatory decision strategy but did not affect the proportions of participants using either type of strategy. A stimulus set effect suggested that the conjunction of cue salience and cue validity might play a determining role in strategy selection. The results of Experiment 2 indicated that when a perceptually salient cue was also the most valid, the majority of participants preferred a single-cue heuristic strategy. Overall, the results contradict the view that heuristics are more likely to be adopted when a task is made more cognitively demanding. It is argued that people employ 2 learning processes during training, one an associative learning process in which cue-outcome associations are developed by sampling multiple cues, and another that involves the sequential examination of single cues to serve as a basis for a single-cue heuristic. PMID:24884389

  10. Optimal strategies for electric energy contract decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Haili

    2000-10-01

    The power industry restructuring in various countries in recent years has created an environment where trading of electric energy is conducted in a market environment. In such an environment, electric power companies compete for the market share through spot and bilateral markets. Being profit driven, electric power companies need to make decisions on spot market bidding, contract evaluation, and risk management. New methods and software tools are required to meet these upcoming needs. In this research, bidding strategy and contract pricing are studied from a market participant's viewpoint; new methods are developed to guide a market participant in spot and bilateral market operation. A supplier's spot market bidding decision is studied. Stochastic optimization is formulated to calculate a supplier's optimal bids in a single time period. This decision making problem is also formulated as a Markov Decision Process. All the competitors are represented by their bidding parameters with corresponding probabilities. A systematic method is developed to calculate transition probabilities and rewards. The optimal strategy is calculated to maximize the expected reward over a planning horizon. Besides the spot market, a power producer can also trade in the bilateral markets. Bidding strategies in a bilateral market are studied with game theory techniques. Necessary and sufficient conditions of Nash Equilibrium (NE) bidding strategy are derived based on the generators' cost and the loads' willingness to pay. The study shows that in any NE, market efficiency is achieved. Furthermore, all Nash equilibria are revenue equivalent for the generators. The pricing of "Flexible" contracts, which allow delivery flexibility over a period of time with a fixed total amount of electricity to be delivered, is analyzed based on the no-arbitrage pricing principle. The proposed algorithm calculates the price based on the optimality condition of the stochastic optimization formulation

  11. A Simulation Approach to Decision Making in IT Service Strategy

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    We propose to use simulation modeling to support decision making in IT service strategy scope. Our main contribution is a simulation model that helps service providers analyze the consequences of changes in both the service capacity assigned to their customers and the tendency of service requests received on the fulfillment of a business rule associated with the strategic goal of customer satisfaction. This business rule is set in the SLAs that service provider and its customers agree to, which determine the maximum percentage of service requests that are permitted to be abandoned because they have exceeded the waiting time allowed. To illustrate the use and applications of the model, we include some of the experiments conducted and describe our conclusions. PMID:24790583

  12. Dairy cow culling strategies: making economical culling decisions.

    PubMed

    Lehenbauer, T W; Oltjen, J W

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of this report was to examine important economic elements of culling decisions, to review progress in development of culling decision support systems, and to discern some of the potentially rewarding areas for future research on culling models. Culling decisions have an important influence on the economic performance of the dairy but are often made in a nonprogrammed fashion and based partly on the intuition of the decision maker. The computer technology that is available for dairy herd management has made feasible the use of economic models to support culling decisions. Financial components--including profit, cash flow, and risk--are major economic factors affecting culling decisions. Culling strategies are further influenced by short-term fluctuations in cow numbers as well as by planned herd expansion. Changes in herd size affect the opportunity cost for postponed replacement and may alter the relevance of optimization strategies that assume a fixed herd size. Improvements in model components related to biological factors affecting future cow performance, including milk production, reproductive status, and mastitis, appear to offer the greatest economic potential for enhancing culling decision support systems. The ultimate value of any culling decision support system for developing economic culling strategies will be determined by its results under field conditions.

  13. How High School Students Construct Decision-Making Strategies for Choosing Colleges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Govan, George V.; Patrick, Sondra; Yen, Cherng-Jyn

    2006-01-01

    This study examined how high school seniors construct decision-making strategies for choosing a college to attend. To comprehend their decision-making strategies, we chose to examine this process through the theoretical lens of bounded rationality, which brings to light the complexity in constructing a college choice decision-making strategy…

  14. Visual search strategies and decision making in baseball batting.

    PubMed

    Takeuchi, Takayuki; Inomata, Kimihiro

    2009-06-01

    The goal was to examine the differences in visual search strategies between expert and nonexpert baseball batters during the preparatory phase of a pitcher's pitching and accuracy and timing of swing judgments during the ball's trajectory. 14 members of a college team (Expert group), and graduate and college students (Nonexpert group), were asked to observe 10 pitches thrown by a pitcher and respond by pushing a button attached to a bat when they thought the bat should be swung to meet the ball (swing judgment). Their eye movements, accuracy, and the timing of the swing judgment were measured. The Expert group shifted their point of observation from the proximal part of the body such as the head, chest, or trunk of the pitcher to the pitching arm and the release point before the pitcher released a ball, while the gaze point of the Nonexpert group visually focused on the head and the face. The accuracy in swing judgments of the Expert group was significantly higher, and the timing of their swing judgments was significantly earlier. Expert baseball batters used visual search strategies to gaze at specific cues (the pitching arm of the pitcher) and were more accurate and relatively quicker at decision making than Nonexpert batters. PMID:19725330

  15. Visual search strategies and decision making in baseball batting.

    PubMed

    Takeuchi, Takayuki; Inomata, Kimihiro

    2009-06-01

    The goal was to examine the differences in visual search strategies between expert and nonexpert baseball batters during the preparatory phase of a pitcher's pitching and accuracy and timing of swing judgments during the ball's trajectory. 14 members of a college team (Expert group), and graduate and college students (Nonexpert group), were asked to observe 10 pitches thrown by a pitcher and respond by pushing a button attached to a bat when they thought the bat should be swung to meet the ball (swing judgment). Their eye movements, accuracy, and the timing of the swing judgment were measured. The Expert group shifted their point of observation from the proximal part of the body such as the head, chest, or trunk of the pitcher to the pitching arm and the release point before the pitcher released a ball, while the gaze point of the Nonexpert group visually focused on the head and the face. The accuracy in swing judgments of the Expert group was significantly higher, and the timing of their swing judgments was significantly earlier. Expert baseball batters used visual search strategies to gaze at specific cues (the pitching arm of the pitcher) and were more accurate and relatively quicker at decision making than Nonexpert batters.

  16. Preschool Teaching Students' Prediction of Decision Making Strategies and Academic Achievement on Learning Motivations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Acat, M. Bahaddin; Dereli, Esra

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify problems and motivation sources and strategies of decision-making of the students' attending preschool education teacher department, was to determine the relationship between learning motivation and strategies of decision-making, academic achievement of students, was to determine whether strategies of…

  17. Manipulating Decisiveness in Decision Making: Effects of Clonidine on Hippocampal Search Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Amemiya, Seiichiro

    2016-01-01

    Decisiveness is the ability to commit to a decision quickly and efficiently; in contrast, indecision entails the repeated consideration of multiple alternative possibilities. In humans, the α2-adrenergic receptor agonist clonidine increases decisiveness in tasks that require planning through unknown neural mechanisms. In rats, indecision is manifested as reorienting behaviors at choice points (vicarious trial and error [VTE]), during which hippocampal representations alternate between prospective options. To determine whether the increase in decisiveness driven by clonidine also entails changes in hippocampal search processes, we compared the effect of clonidine on spatial representations in hippocampal neural ensembles as rats passed through a T-shaped decision point. Consistent with previous experiments, hippocampal representations reflected both chosen and unchosen paths during VTE events under saline control conditions. Also, consistent with previous experiments, hippocampal representations reflected the chosen path more than the unchosen path when the animal did not show VTE at the choice point. Injection of clonidine suppressed the spatial representation of the unchosen path at the choice point on VTE laps and hastened the differentiation of spatial representations of the chosen path from the unchosen path on non-VTE laps to appear before reaching the choice point. These results suggest that the decisiveness seen under clonidine is due to limited exploration of potential options in hippocampus, and suggest novel roles for noradrenaline as a modulator of the hippocampal search processes. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Clonidine, an α2-adrenergic receptor agonist, which decreases the level of noradrenaline in vivo, has an interesting effect in humans and other animals: it makes them more decisive. However, the mechanisms by which clonidine makes them more decisive remain unknown. Researchers have speculated that clonidine limits the amount of mental search that

  18. Manipulating Decisiveness in Decision Making: Effects of Clonidine on Hippocampal Search Strategies.

    PubMed

    Amemiya, Seiichiro; Redish, A David

    2016-01-20

    Decisiveness is the ability to commit to a decision quickly and efficiently; in contrast, indecision entails the repeated consideration of multiple alternative possibilities. In humans, the α2-adrenergic receptor agonist clonidine increases decisiveness in tasks that require planning through unknown neural mechanisms. In rats, indecision is manifested as reorienting behaviors at choice points (vicarious trial and error [VTE]), during which hippocampal representations alternate between prospective options. To determine whether the increase in decisiveness driven by clonidine also entails changes in hippocampal search processes, we compared the effect of clonidine on spatial representations in hippocampal neural ensembles as rats passed through a T-shaped decision point. Consistent with previous experiments, hippocampal representations reflected both chosen and unchosen paths during VTE events under saline control conditions. Also, consistent with previous experiments, hippocampal representations reflected the chosen path more than the unchosen path when the animal did not show VTE at the choice point. Injection of clonidine suppressed the spatial representation of the unchosen path at the choice point on VTE laps and hastened the differentiation of spatial representations of the chosen path from the unchosen path on non-VTE laps to appear before reaching the choice point. These results suggest that the decisiveness seen under clonidine is due to limited exploration of potential options in hippocampus, and suggest novel roles for noradrenaline as a modulator of the hippocampal search processes. Significance statement: Clonidine, an α2-adrenergic receptor agonist, which decreases the level of noradrenaline in vivo, has an interesting effect in humans and other animals: it makes them more decisive. However, the mechanisms by which clonidine makes them more decisive remain unknown. Researchers have speculated that clonidine limits the amount of mental search that

  19. Manipulating Decisiveness in Decision Making: Effects of Clonidine on Hippocampal Search Strategies.

    PubMed

    Amemiya, Seiichiro; Redish, A David

    2016-01-20

    Decisiveness is the ability to commit to a decision quickly and efficiently; in contrast, indecision entails the repeated consideration of multiple alternative possibilities. In humans, the α2-adrenergic receptor agonist clonidine increases decisiveness in tasks that require planning through unknown neural mechanisms. In rats, indecision is manifested as reorienting behaviors at choice points (vicarious trial and error [VTE]), during which hippocampal representations alternate between prospective options. To determine whether the increase in decisiveness driven by clonidine also entails changes in hippocampal search processes, we compared the effect of clonidine on spatial representations in hippocampal neural ensembles as rats passed through a T-shaped decision point. Consistent with previous experiments, hippocampal representations reflected both chosen and unchosen paths during VTE events under saline control conditions. Also, consistent with previous experiments, hippocampal representations reflected the chosen path more than the unchosen path when the animal did not show VTE at the choice point. Injection of clonidine suppressed the spatial representation of the unchosen path at the choice point on VTE laps and hastened the differentiation of spatial representations of the chosen path from the unchosen path on non-VTE laps to appear before reaching the choice point. These results suggest that the decisiveness seen under clonidine is due to limited exploration of potential options in hippocampus, and suggest novel roles for noradrenaline as a modulator of the hippocampal search processes. Significance statement: Clonidine, an α2-adrenergic receptor agonist, which decreases the level of noradrenaline in vivo, has an interesting effect in humans and other animals: it makes them more decisive. However, the mechanisms by which clonidine makes them more decisive remain unknown. Researchers have speculated that clonidine limits the amount of mental search that

  20. The Minimal Control Principle Predicts Strategy Shifts in the Abstract Decision Making Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taatgen, Niels A.

    2011-01-01

    The minimal control principle (Taatgen, 2007) predicts that people strive for problem-solving strategies that require as few internal control states as possible. In an experiment with the Abstract Decision Making task (ADM task; Joslyn & Hunt, 1998) the reward structure was manipulated to make either a low-control strategy or a high-strategy…

  1. Levels of Analysis in Mass Media Decision Making: A Taxonomy, Research Strategy, and Illustrative Data Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dimmick, John; Coit, Philip

    1982-01-01

    Presents a taxonomy of influences on decision making in mass media. Illustrates the use of the taxonomy and research strategy in a quantitative analysis of influences on the decision autonomy of reporters. Results indicate that reporters' experience plays the most important role in explaining their story selection/content autonomy. (PD)

  2. A framework for designing and analyzing binary decision-making strategies in cellular systems†

    PubMed Central

    Porter, Joshua R.; Andrews, Burton W.; Iglesias, Pablo A.

    2015-01-01

    Cells make many binary (all-or-nothing) decisions based on noisy signals gathered from their environment and processed through noisy decision-making pathways. Reducing the effect of noise to improve the fidelity of decision-making comes at the expense of increased complexity, creating a tradeoff between performance and metabolic cost. We present a framework based on rate distortion theory, a branch of information theory, to quantify this tradeoff and design binary decision-making strategies that balance low cost and accuracy in optimal ways. With this framework, we show that several observed behaviors of binary decision-making systems, including random strategies, hysteresis, and irreversibility, are optimal in an information-theoretic sense for various situations. This framework can also be used to quantify the goals around which a decision-making system is optimized and to evaluate the optimality of cellular decision-making systems by a fundamental information-theoretic criterion. As proof of concept, we use the framework to quantify the goals of the externally triggered apoptosis pathway. PMID:22370552

  3. Teachers' Attitude toward Decision Making as a Subcategory of Learner's Control Strategy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kutlu, M. Oguz

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the usage levels of learner's control strategy among teachers according to their field and length of service in using option of decision making covered by learner's control strategy. The participants of this research were 219 teachers teaching in Adana (Turkey) State primary schools in 2010 to 2011 education…

  4. Optimization as a Reasoning Strategy for Dealing with Socioscientific Decision-Making Situations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Papadouris, Nicos

    2012-01-01

    This paper reports on an attempt to help 12-year-old students develop a specific optimization strategy for selecting among possible solutions in socioscientific decision-making situations. We have developed teaching and learning materials for elaborating this strategy, and we have implemented them in two intact classes (N = 48). Prior to and after…

  5. Prefrontal cortex and decision making in a mixed-strategy game.

    PubMed

    Barraclough, Dominic J; Conroy, Michelle L; Lee, Daeyeol

    2004-04-01

    In a multi-agent environment, where the outcomes of one's actions change dynamically because they are related to the behavior of other beings, it becomes difficult to make an optimal decision about how to act. Although game theory provides normative solutions for decision making in groups, how such decision-making strategies are altered by experience is poorly understood. These adaptive processes might resemble reinforcement learning algorithms, which provide a general framework for finding optimal strategies in a dynamic environment. Here we investigated the role of prefrontal cortex (PFC) in dynamic decision making in monkeys. As in reinforcement learning, the animal's choice during a competitive game was biased by its choice and reward history, as well as by the strategies of its opponent. Furthermore, neurons in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) encoded the animal's past decisions and payoffs, as well as the conjunction between the two, providing signals necessary to update the estimates of expected reward. Thus, PFC might have a key role in optimizing decision-making strategies.

  6. Information search and decision making: effects of age and complexity on strategy use.

    PubMed

    Queen, Tara L; Hess, Thomas M; Ennis, Gilda E; Dowd, Keith; Grühn, Daniel

    2012-12-01

    The impact of task complexity on information search strategy and decision quality was examined in a sample of 135 young, middle-aged, and older adults. We were particularly interested in the competing roles of fluid cognitive ability and domain knowledge and experience, with the former being a negative influence and the latter being a positive influence on older adults' performance. Participants utilized 2 decision matrices, which varied in complexity, regarding a consumer purchase. Using process tracing software and an algorithm developed to assess decision strategy, we recorded search behavior, strategy selection, and final decision. Contrary to expectations, older adults were not more likely than the younger age groups to engage in information-minimizing search behaviors in response to increases in task complexity. Similarly, adults of all ages used comparable decision strategies and adapted their strategies to the demands of the task. We also examined decision outcomes in relation to participants' preferences. Overall, it seems that older adults utilize simpler sets of information primarily reflecting the most valued attributes in making their choice. The results of this study suggest that older adults are adaptive in their approach to decision making and that this ability may benefit from accrued knowledge and experience.

  7. Decision-Making Models with Sets of Strategies for Applications to Individuals and Groups in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gill, Wanda E.

    Three decision-making models that have applications for college presidents and administrators are reviewed. While both individual and group decision-making are addressed, emphasis is placed on the importance of group decisions on institutional policy planning. The model of Edmund M. Burke (1979) presents specific decision-making strategies in…

  8. The Influence of Temporal Orientation and Affective Frame on use of Ethical Decision-Making Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Martin, Laura E.; Stenmark, Cheryl K.; Thiel, Chase E.; Antes, Alison L.; Mumford, Michael D.; Connelly, Shane; Devenport, Lynn D.

    2011-01-01

    This study examined the role of temporal orientation and affective frame in the execution of ethical decision-making strategies. In reflecting on a past experience or imagining a future experience, participants thought about experiences that they considered either positive or negative. The participants recorded their thinking about that experience by responding to several questions, and their responses were content-analyzed for the use of ethical decision-making strategies. The findings indicated that a future temporal orientation was associated with greater strategy use. Likewise, a positive affective frame was associated with greater strategy use. Future orientation may permit better strategy execution than a past orientation because it facilitates more objective, balanced contemplation of the reflected-upon situation, and minimizes potential self-threat associated with past behavior. A positive affective frame likely improves strategy execution because it facilitates active analysis of the experience. Future directions and implications of these findings are discussed. PMID:21572582

  9. Divergence and Convergence of Risky Decision Making Across Prospective Gains and Losses: Preferences and Strategies.

    PubMed

    Kurnianingsih, Yoanna A; Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A

    2015-01-01

    People choose differently when facing potential gains than when facing potential losses. Clear gross differences in decision making between gains and losses have been empirically demonstrated in numerous studies (e.g., framing effect, risk preference, loss aversion). However, theories maintain that there are strong underlying connections (e.g., reflection effect). We investigated the relationship between gains and losses decision making, examining risk preferences, and choice strategies (the reliance on option information) using a monetary gamble task with interleaved trials. For risk preferences, participants were on average risk averse in the gains domain and risk neutral/seeking in the losses domain. We specifically tested for a theoretically hypothesized correlation between individual risk preferences across the gains and losses domains (the reflection effect), but found no significant relationship in the predicted direction. Interestingly, despite the lack of reflected risk preferences, cross-domain risk preferences were still informative of individual choice behavior. For choice strategies, in both domains participants relied more heavily on the maximizing strategy than the satisficing strategy, with increased reliance on the maximizing strategy in the losses domain. Additionally, while there is no mathematical reliance between the risk preference and strategy metrics, within both domains there were significant relationships between risk preferences and strategies-the more participants relied upon the maximizing strategy the more risk neutral they were (equating value and utility maximization). These results demonstrate the complexity of gains and losses decision making, indicating the apparent contradiction that their underlying cognitive/neural processes are both dissociable and overlapping.

  10. Levels of Analysis in Mass Media Decision-Making: A Taxonomy and Research Strategy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dimmick, John W.

    A taxonomy of levels of analysis in mass media decision making is presented in this paper, and a strategy is proposed for incorporating the different levels into the design of research. Following a clarification of the concept of influence and its relationship to the levels of analysis used in the taxonomic structure, the paper describes the…

  11. Training in Decision-making Strategies: An approach to enhance students' competence to deal with socio-scientific issues

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gresch, Helge; Hasselhorn, Marcus; Bögeholz, Susanne

    2013-10-01

    Dealing with socio-scientific issues in science classes enables students to participate productively in controversial discussions concerning ethical topics, such as sustainable development. In this respect, well-structured decision-making processes are essential for elaborate reasoning. To foster decision-making competence, a computer-based programme was developed that trains secondary school students (grades 11-13) in decision-making strategies. The main research question is: does training students to use these strategies foster decision-making competence? In addition, the influence of meta-decision aids was examined. Students conducted a task analysis to select an appropriate strategy prior to the decision-making process. Hence, the second research question is: does combining decision-making training with a task analysis enhance decision-making competence at a higher rate? To answer these questions, 386 students were tested in a pre-post-follow-up control-group design that included two training groups (decision-making strategies/decision-making strategies combined with a task analysis) and a control group (decision-making with additional ecological information instead of strategic training). An open-ended questionnaire was used to assess decision-making competence in situations related to sustainable development. The decision-making training led to a significant improvement in the post-test and the follow-up, which was administered three months after the training. Long-term effects on the quality of the students' decisions were evident for both training groups. Gains in competence when reflecting upon the decision-making processes of others were found, to a lesser extent, in the training group that received the additional meta-decision training. In conclusion, training in decision-making strategies is a promising approach to deal with socio-scientific issues related to sustainable development.

  12. The Relation between Career Decision-Making Strategies and Person-Job Fit: A Study of Job Changers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Singh, Romila; Greenhaus, Jeffrey H.

    2004-01-01

    This study examined relations between three career decision-making strategies (rational, intuitive, and dependent) and person--job fit among 361 professionals who had recently changed jobs. We found that the relation between each decision-making strategy and fit was contingent upon the concurrent use of other strategies. A rational strategy…

  13. Multi Criteria Decision Making to evaluate control strategies of contagious animal diseases.

    PubMed

    Mourits, M C M; van Asseldonk, M A P M; Huirne, R B M

    2010-09-01

    The decision on which strategy to use in the control of contagious animal diseases involves complex trade-offs between multiple objectives. This paper describes a Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) application to illustrate its potential support to policy makers in choosing the control strategy that best meets all of the conflicting interests. The presented application focused on the evaluation of alternative strategies to control Classical Swine Fever (CSF) epidemics within the European Union (EU) according to the preferences of the European Chief Veterinary Officers (CVO). The performed analysis was centred on the three high-level objectives of epidemiology, economics and social ethics. The appraised control alternatives consisted of the EU compulsory control strategy, a pre-emptive slaughter strategy, a protective vaccination strategy and a suppressive vaccination strategy. Using averaged preference weights of the elicited CVOs, the preference ranking of the control alternatives was determined for six EU regions. The obtained results emphasized the need for EU region-specific control. Individual CVOs differed in their views on the relative importance of the various (sub)criteria by which the performance of the alternatives were judged. Nevertheless, the individual rankings of the control alternatives within a region appeared surprisingly similar. Based on the results of the described application it was concluded that the structuring feature of the MCDM technique provides a suitable tool in assisting the complex decision making process of controlling contagious animal diseases.

  14. Vocationally Mature Coping Strategies and Progress in the Decision-Making Process: A Canonical Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Phillips, Susan D.; Strohmer, Douglas C.

    1983-01-01

    Examined the relationship between factors influencing career development and the decision-making process in 174 students. Results suggested that planning orientation will hinder or facilitate movement beyond the exploratory phase of decision making, and decision-making skills reduce the effort of the prechoice portion of decision making. (WAS)

  15. Divergence and Convergence of Risky Decision Making Across Prospective Gains and Losses: Preferences and Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Kurnianingsih, Yoanna A.; Mullette-Gillman, O'Dhaniel A.

    2015-01-01

    People choose differently when facing potential gains than when facing potential losses. Clear gross differences in decision making between gains and losses have been empirically demonstrated in numerous studies (e.g., framing effect, risk preference, loss aversion). However, theories maintain that there are strong underlying connections (e.g., reflection effect). We investigated the relationship between gains and losses decision making, examining risk preferences, and choice strategies (the reliance on option information) using a monetary gamble task with interleaved trials. For risk preferences, participants were on average risk averse in the gains domain and risk neutral/seeking in the losses domain. We specifically tested for a theoretically hypothesized correlation between individual risk preferences across the gains and losses domains (the reflection effect), but found no significant relationship in the predicted direction. Interestingly, despite the lack of reflected risk preferences, cross-domain risk preferences were still informative of individual choice behavior. For choice strategies, in both domains participants relied more heavily on the maximizing strategy than the satisficing strategy, with increased reliance on the maximizing strategy in the losses domain. Additionally, while there is no mathematical reliance between the risk preference and strategy metrics, within both domains there were significant relationships between risk preferences and strategies—the more participants relied upon the maximizing strategy the more risk neutral they were (equating value and utility maximization). These results demonstrate the complexity of gains and losses decision making, indicating the apparent contradiction that their underlying cognitive/neural processes are both dissociable and overlapping. PMID:26733779

  16. Decision Making in Action

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication

  17. Knowledge Translation Strategies for Enhancing Nurses’ Evidence-Informed Decision Making: A Scoping Review

    PubMed Central

    Yost, Jennifer; Thompson, David; Ganann, Rebecca; Aloweni, Fazila; Newman, Kristine; McKibbon, Ann; Dobbins, Maureen; Ciliska, Donna

    2014-01-01

    Background Nurses are increasingly expected to engage in evidence-informed decision making (EIDM); the use of research evidence with information about patient preferences, clinical context and resources, and their clinical expertise in decision making. Strategies for enhancing EIDM have been synthesized in high-quality systematic reviews, yet most relate to physicians or mixed disciplines. Existing reviews, specific to nursing, have not captured a broad range of strategies for promoting the knowledge and skills for EIDM, patient outcomes as a result of EIDM, or contextual information for why these strategies “work.” Aim To conduct a scoping review to identify and map the literature related to strategies implemented among nurses in tertiary care for promoting EIDM knowledge, skills, and behaviours, as well as patient outcomes and contextual implementation details. Methods A search strategy was developed and executed to identify relevant research evidence. Participants included registered nurses, clinical nurse specialists, nurse practitioners, and advanced practice nurses. Strategies were those enhancing nurses’ EIDM knowledge, skills, or behaviours, as well as patient outcomes. Relevant studies included systematic reviews, randomized controlled trials, cluster randomized controlled trials, non-randomized trials (including controlled before and after studies), cluster non-randomized trials, interrupted time series designs, prospective cohort studies, mixed-method studies, and qualitative studies. Two reviewers performed study selection and data extraction using standardized forms. Disagreements were resolved through discussion or third party adjudication. Results Using a narrative synthesis, the body of research was mapped by design, clinical areas, strategies, and provider and patient outcomes to determine areas appropriate for a systematic review. Conclusions There are a sufficiently high number of studies to conduct a more focused systematic review by care

  18. Data-Informed Decision Making on High-Impact Strategies: Developing and Validating an Instrument for Principals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shen, Jianping; Cooley, Van E.; Ma, Xin; Reeves, Patricia L.; Burt, Walter L.; Rainey, J. Mark; Yuan, Wenhui

    2012-01-01

    In this study, the authors connect 3 streams of literature to develop an instrument for measuring the degree to which principals engage in data-informed decision making on high-impact strategies that are empirically associated with higher student achievement. The 3 literature streams are (a) the importance of data-informed decision making, (b) the…

  19. Achieving collaboration in ethical decision making: strategies for nurses in clinical practice.

    PubMed

    Wocial, L D

    1996-01-01

    Ethical decision making is a process that combines justice and caring in moral reflection to select sound choices. Nurses and physicians often have different perspectives on how to resolve ethical dilemmas. Satisfactory resolution depends on overcoming conflict and achieving collaboration between members of the health care team. Conflict can occur on a number of different levels. For example, it can be between nurses, nurses and physicians or the entire health care team and the patient. This article helps prepare critical care nurses to handle ethical dilemmas in crisis situations by providing them with specific strategies that help promote collaboration in resolving ethical dilemmas. PMID:8715871

  20. Ecological models supporting environmental decision making: a strategy for the future

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schmolke, Amelie; Thorbek, Pernille; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Grimm, Volker

    2010-01-01

    Ecological models are important for environmental decision support because they allow the consequences of alternative policies and management scenarios to be explored. However, current modeling practice is unsatisfactory. A literature review shows that the elements of good modeling practice have long been identified but are widely ignored. The reasons for this might include lack of involvement of decision makers, lack of incentives for modelers to follow good practice, and the use of inconsistent terminologies. As a strategy for the future, we propose a standard format for documenting models and their analyses: transparent and comprehensive ecological modeling (TRACE) documentation. This standard format will disclose all parts of the modeling process to scrutiny and make modeling itself more efficient and coherent.

  1. Multi-objective optimisation and decision-making of space station logistics strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Yue-he; Luo, Ya-zhong

    2016-10-01

    Space station logistics strategy optimisation is a complex engineering problem with multiple objectives. Finding a decision-maker-preferred compromise solution becomes more significant when solving such a problem. However, the designer-preferred solution is not easy to determine using the traditional method. Thus, a hybrid approach that combines the multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, physical programming, and differential evolution (DE) algorithm is proposed to deal with the optimisation and decision-making of space station logistics strategies. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm is used to acquire a Pareto frontier and help determine the range parameters of the physical programming. Physical programming is employed to convert the four-objective problem into a single-objective problem, and a DE algorithm is applied to solve the resulting physical programming-based optimisation problem. Five kinds of objective preference are simulated and compared. The simulation results indicate that the proposed approach can produce good compromise solutions corresponding to different decision-makers' preferences.

  2. Age differences in strategy selection and risk preference during risk-based decision making.

    PubMed

    Samson, Rachel D; Venkatesh, Anu; Lester, Adam W; Weinstein, A Tobias; Lipa, Peter; Barnes, Carol A

    2015-04-01

    Studies of the effects of aging on decision making suggest that choices can be altered in a variety of ways depending on the situation, the nature of the outcome and risk, or certainty levels. To better characterize how aging impacts decision making in rodents, young and aged Fischer 344 rats underwent a series of probabilistic discounting tasks in which reward magnitude and probabilities were manipulated. Young rats tended to choose 1 of 2 different strategies: (a) to press for the large/uncertain reward, regardless of the reward probability; or (b) to continually adapt their behavior according to the odds of winning. The first strategy was adopted by about half of the younger rats, the second by the remaining young animals and the entire group of aged rats. Additionally, we found that when the odds of winning were varied from uncertain to certain during a session, aged rats chose most often the lever associated with the small/certain reward. This is consistent with an interpretation of increased risk aversion. When this behavior was further characterized using a lose-shift analysis, it appears that older rats exhibited an increased sensitivity to negative feedback. In contrast, sensitivity to wins was unaltered in aged rats compared with young, suggesting that aging selectively impacts rat's behavior following losses. In line with some human aging studies, it appears that aged rats are either more risk averse or have a greater certainty bias, which may result from age differences in emotion regulation. PMID:25664565

  3. Effects of Computer-Assisted Instruction in Using Formal Decision-Making Strategies to Choose a College Major.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mau, Wei-Cheng; Jepsen, David A.

    1992-01-01

    Compared decision-making strategies and college major choice among 113 first-year students assigned to Elimination by Aspects Strategy (EBA), Subjective Expected Utility Strategy (SEU), and control groups. "Rational" EBA students scored significantly higher on choice certainty; lower on choice anxiety and career indecision than "rational"…

  4. Spacecraft Design-for-Demise implementation strategy & decision-making methodology for low earth orbit missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waswa, Peter M. B.; Elliot, Michael; Hoffman, Jeffrey A.

    2013-05-01

    Space missions designed to completely ablate upon an uncontrolled Earth atmosphere reentry are likely to be simpler and cheaper than those designed to execute controlled reentry. This is because mission risk (unavailability) stemming from controlled reentry subsystem failure(s) is essentially eliminated. NASA has not customarily implemented Design-for-Demise meticulously. NASA has rather approached Design-for-Demise in an ad hoc manner that fails to entrench Design-for-Demise as a mission design driver. Thus, enormous demisability challenges at later formulation stages of missions aspired to be demisable are evident due to these perpetuated oversights in entrenching Design-for-Demise practices. The investigators hence propose a strategy for a consistent integration of Design-for-Demise practices in all phases of a space mission lifecycle. Secondly, an all-inclusive risk-informed, decision-making methodology referred to as Analytic Deliberative Process is proposed. This criterion facilitates in making a choice between an uncontrolled reentry demisable or controlled reentry. The authors finally conceive and synthesize Objectives Hierarchy, Attributes, and Quantitative Performance Measures of the Analytical Deliberative Process for a Design-for-Demise risk-informed decision-making process.

  5. Decision-making strategies: ignored to the detriment of healthcare training and delivery?

    PubMed

    Desmond, Chris; Brubaker, Kathryn A; Ellner, Andrew L

    2013-01-01

    Context: People do not always make health-related decisions which reflect their best interest - best interest being defined as the decision they would make if they carefully considered the options and fully understood the information available. A substantial literature has developed in behavioral economics and social psychology that seeks to elucidate the patterns in individual decision-making. While this is particularly relevant to healthcare, the insights from these fields have only been applied in a limited way. To address the health challenges of the twenty-first century, healthcare providers and healthcare systems designers need to more fully understand how individuals are making decisions. Methods: We provide an overview of the theories of behavioral economics and social psychology that relate to how individuals make health-related decisions. The concentration on health-related decisions leads to a focus on three topics: (1) mental shortcuts and motivated reasoning; (2) implications of time; and (3) implications of affect. The first topic is relevant because health-related decisions are often made in a hurry without a full appreciation of the implications and the deliberation they warrant. The second topic is included because the link between a decision and its health-related outcomes can involve a significant time lag. The final topic is included because health and affect are so often linked. Findings: The literature reviewed has implications for healthcare training and delivery. Selection for medical training must consider the skills necessary to understand and adapt to how patients make decisions. Training on the insights garnered from behavioral economics and social psychology would better prepare healthcare providers to effectively support their clients to lead healthy lives. Healthcare delivery should be structured to respond to the way in which decisions are made. Conclusions: These patterns in decision-making call into question basic assumptions our

  6. Decision-making strategies: ignored to the detriment of healthcare training and delivery?

    PubMed Central

    Desmond, Chris; Brubaker, Kathryn A.; Ellner, Andrew L.

    2013-01-01

    Context: People do not always make health-related decisions which reflect their best interest – best interest being defined as the decision they would make if they carefully considered the options and fully understood the information available. A substantial literature has developed in behavioral economics and social psychology that seeks to elucidate the patterns in individual decision-making. While this is particularly relevant to healthcare, the insights from these fields have only been applied in a limited way. To address the health challenges of the twenty-first century, healthcare providers and healthcare systems designers need to more fully understand how individuals are making decisions. Methods: We provide an overview of the theories of behavioral economics and social psychology that relate to how individuals make health-related decisions. The concentration on health-related decisions leads to a focus on three topics: (1) mental shortcuts and motivated reasoning; (2) implications of time; and (3) implications of affect. The first topic is relevant because health-related decisions are often made in a hurry without a full appreciation of the implications and the deliberation they warrant. The second topic is included because the link between a decision and its health-related outcomes can involve a significant time lag. The final topic is included because health and affect are so often linked. Findings: The literature reviewed has implications for healthcare training and delivery. Selection for medical training must consider the skills necessary to understand and adapt to how patients make decisions. Training on the insights garnered from behavioral economics and social psychology would better prepare healthcare providers to effectively support their clients to lead healthy lives. Healthcare delivery should be structured to respond to the way in which decisions are made. Conclusions: These patterns in decision-making call into question basic assumptions our

  7. Categorization = Decision Making + Generalization

    PubMed Central

    Seger, Carol A; Peterson, Erik J.

    2013-01-01

    We rarely, if ever, repeatedly encounter exactly the same situation. This makes generalization crucial for real world decision making. We argue that categorization, the study of generalizable representations, is a type of decision making, and that categorization learning research would benefit from approaches developed to study the neuroscience of decision making. Similarly, methods developed to examine generalization and learning within the field of categorization may enhance decision making research. We first discuss perceptual information processing and integration, with an emphasis on accumulator models. We then examine learning the value of different decision making choices via experience, emphasizing reinforcement learning modeling approaches. Next we discuss how value is combined with other factors in decision making, emphasizing the effects of uncertainty. Finally, we describe how a final decision is selected via thresholding processes implemented by the basal ganglia and related regions. We also consider how memory related functions in the hippocampus may be integrated with decision making mechanisms and contribute to categorization. PMID:23548891

  8. Decision Making Under Objective Risk Conditions-a Review of Cognitive and Emotional Correlates, Strategies, Feedback Processing, and External Influences.

    PubMed

    Schiebener, Johannes; Brand, Matthias

    2015-06-01

    While making decisions under objective risk conditions, the probabilities of the consequences of the available options are either provided or calculable. Brand et al. (Neural Networks 19:1266-1276, 2006) introduced a model describing the neuro-cognitive processes involved in such decisions. In this model, executive functions associated with activity in the fronto-striatal loop are important for developing and applying decision-making strategies, and for verifying, adapting, or revising strategies according to feedback. Emotional rewards and punishments learned from such feedback accompany these processes. In this literature review, we found support for the role of executive functions, but also found evidence for the importance of further cognitive abilities in decision making. Moreover, in addition to reflective processing (driven by cognition), decisions can be guided by impulsive processing (driven by anticipation of emotional reward and punishment). Reflective and impulsive processing may interact during decision making, affecting the evaluation of available options, as both processes are affected by feedback. Decision-making processes are furthermore modulated by individual attributes (e.g., age), and external influences (e.g., stressors). Accordingly, we suggest a revised model of decision making under objective risk conditions.

  9. Integrated EPA Science for Decision-Making: Lawrence, MA Water Strategy

    EPA Science Inventory

    Powerpoint presentation on the Lawrence MA Making a Visible Difference in Communities project’s comprehensive water quality strategy, demonstrating a systems approach applying integrated EPA science

  10. Sustainability Based Decision Making

    EPA Science Inventory

    With sustainability as the “true north” for EPA research, a premium is placed on the ability to make decisions under highly complex and uncertain conditions. The primary challenge is reconciling disparate criteria toward credible and defensible decisions. Making decisions on on...

  11. Assessment of distance-based multi-attribute group decision-making methods from a maintenance strategy perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ding, Siew-Hong; Kamaruddin, Shahrul

    2015-07-01

    Maintenance has been acknowledged by industrial management as a significant influencing factor of plant performance. Effective plant maintenance can be realized by developing a proper maintenance strategy. However, selecting an appropriate maintenance strategy is difficult because maintenance is a non-repetitive task such as production activity. Maintenance also does not leave a consistent traceable record that can be referred to during the decision-making process. The involvement of tangible and intangible factors in the assessment process further increases the complexity of the decision-making process. The technique of preference order by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) is one of the most well-known decision-making methods and has been widely used by organizations to conduct effective decisions regarding maintenance issues. TOPSIS has also evolved by integrating different approaches such as the fuzzy concept. Although numerous TOPSIS applications for maintenance decision making have been published, the effectiveness of crisp TOPSIS and fuzzy TOPSIS needs to be investigated further. This paper attempts to present a comparison between conventional crisp TOPSIS and fuzzy TOPSIS from a group maintenance decision-making perspective by an empirical illustration. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to demonstrate further the resilience of crisp TOPSIS and fuzzy TOPSIS.

  12. Dignity-driven decision making: a compelling strategy for improving care for people with advanced illness.

    PubMed

    Vladeck, Bruce C; Westphal, Erin

    2012-06-01

    The concept of dignity-driven decision making builds on previous efforts to define and develop patient- and family-centered care for people with advanced illness. More a framework than a rigid structure, the dignity-driven decision making model emphasizes the centrality of a collaborative process in which patients, most of whom are elderly; their families; and clinicians work together continuously to define the goals of care and how best to implement them. The early experiences of some organizations already practicing dignity-driven decision making in their care suggest that the model can improve patient care. Whether the system of care can produce enough savings to pay for its increased costs in the form of additional clinicians and managers is not yet known. Policy-driven actions, such as payment reform and closer alignment of quality incentives with the model's objectives, will be integral to further development and dissemination of the model.

  13. Using multi-criteria decision making for selection of the optimal strategy for municipal solid waste management.

    PubMed

    Jovanovic, Sasa; Savic, Slobodan; Jovicic, Nebojsa; Boskovic, Goran; Djordjevic, Zorica

    2016-09-01

    Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) is a relatively new tool for decision makers who deal with numerous and often contradictory factors during their decision making process. This paper presents a procedure to choose the optimal municipal solid waste (MSW) management system for the area of the city of Kragujevac (Republic of Serbia) based on the MCDM method. Two methods of multiple attribute decision making, i.e. SAW (simple additive weighting method) and TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution), respectively, were used to compare the proposed waste management strategies (WMS). Each of the created strategies was simulated using the software package IWM2. Total values for eight chosen parameters were calculated for all the strategies. Contribution of each of the six waste treatment options was valorized. The SAW analysis was used to obtain the sum characteristics for all the waste management treatment strategies and they were ranked accordingly. The TOPSIS method was used to calculate the relative closeness factors to the ideal solution for all the alternatives. Then, the proposed strategies were ranked in form of tables and diagrams obtained based on both MCDM methods. As shown in this paper, the results were in good agreement, which additionally confirmed and facilitated the choice of the optimal MSW management strategy. PMID:27354012

  14. Using multi-criteria decision making for selection of the optimal strategy for municipal solid waste management.

    PubMed

    Jovanovic, Sasa; Savic, Slobodan; Jovicic, Nebojsa; Boskovic, Goran; Djordjevic, Zorica

    2016-09-01

    Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) is a relatively new tool for decision makers who deal with numerous and often contradictory factors during their decision making process. This paper presents a procedure to choose the optimal municipal solid waste (MSW) management system for the area of the city of Kragujevac (Republic of Serbia) based on the MCDM method. Two methods of multiple attribute decision making, i.e. SAW (simple additive weighting method) and TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution), respectively, were used to compare the proposed waste management strategies (WMS). Each of the created strategies was simulated using the software package IWM2. Total values for eight chosen parameters were calculated for all the strategies. Contribution of each of the six waste treatment options was valorized. The SAW analysis was used to obtain the sum characteristics for all the waste management treatment strategies and they were ranked accordingly. The TOPSIS method was used to calculate the relative closeness factors to the ideal solution for all the alternatives. Then, the proposed strategies were ranked in form of tables and diagrams obtained based on both MCDM methods. As shown in this paper, the results were in good agreement, which additionally confirmed and facilitated the choice of the optimal MSW management strategy.

  15. Type of learning task impacts performance and strategy selection in decision making.

    PubMed

    Pachur, Thorsten; Olsson, Henrik

    2012-09-01

    In order to be adaptive, cognition requires knowledge about the statistical structure of the environment. We show that decision performance and the selection between cue-based and exemplar-based inference mechanisms can depend critically on how this knowledge is acquired. Two types of learning tasks are distinguished: learning by comparison, by which the decision maker learns which of two objects has a higher criterion value, and direct criterion learning, by which the decision maker learns an object's criterion value directly. In three experiments, participants were trained either with learning by comparison or with direct criterion learning and subsequently tested with paired-comparison, classification, and estimation tasks. Experiments 1 and 2 showed that although providing less information, learning by comparison led to better generalization (at test), both when generalizing to new objects and when the task format at test differed from the task format during training. Moreover, learning by comparison enabled participants to provide rather accurate continuous estimates. Computational modeling suggests that the advantage of learning by comparison is due to differences in strategy selection: whereas direct criterion learning fosters the reliance on exemplar processing, learning by comparison fosters cue-based mechanisms. The pattern in decision performance reversed when the task environment was changed from a linear (Experiments 1 and 2) to a nonlinear structure (Experiment 3), where direct criterion learning led to better decisions. Our results demonstrate the critical impact of learning conditions for the subsequent selection of decision strategies and highlight the key role of comparison processes in cognition.

  16. Strategies in Forecasting Outcomes in Ethical Decision-making: Identifying and Analyzing the Causes of the Problem

    PubMed Central

    Beeler, Cheryl K.; Antes, Alison L.; Wang, Xiaoqian; Caughron, Jared J.; Thiel, Chase E.; Mumford, Michael D.

    2010-01-01

    This study examined the role of key causal analysis strategies in forecasting and ethical decision-making. Undergraduate participants took on the role of the key actor in several ethical problems and were asked to identify and analyze the causes, forecast potential outcomes, and make a decision about each problem. Time pressure and analytic mindset were manipulated while participants worked through these problems. The results indicated that forecast quality was associated with decision ethicality, and the identification of the critical causes of the problem was associated with both higher quality forecasts and higher ethicality of decisions. Neither time pressure nor analytic mindset impacted forecasts or ethicality of decisions. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed. PMID:20352056

  17. Heuristic decision making.

    PubMed

    Gigerenzer, Gerd; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang

    2011-01-01

    As reflected in the amount of controversy, few areas in psychology have undergone such dramatic conceptual changes in the past decade as the emerging science of heuristics. Heuristics are efficient cognitive processes, conscious or unconscious, that ignore part of the information. Because using heuristics saves effort, the classical view has been that heuristic decisions imply greater errors than do "rational" decisions as defined by logic or statistical models. However, for many decisions, the assumptions of rational models are not met, and it is an empirical rather than an a priori issue how well cognitive heuristics function in an uncertain world. To answer both the descriptive question ("Which heuristics do people use in which situations?") and the prescriptive question ("When should people rely on a given heuristic rather than a complex strategy to make better judgments?"), formal models are indispensable. We review research that tests formal models of heuristic inference, including in business organizations, health care, and legal institutions. This research indicates that (a) individuals and organizations often rely on simple heuristics in an adaptive way, and (b) ignoring part of the information can lead to more accurate judgments than weighting and adding all information, for instance for low predictability and small samples. The big future challenge is to develop a systematic theory of the building blocks of heuristics as well as the core capacities and environmental structures these exploit.

  18. Modeling the Occupational/Career Decision-Making Processes of Intellectually Gifted Adolescents: A Competing Models Strategy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jung, Jae Yup

    2014-01-01

    This study developed and empirically tested two related models of the occupational/career decision-making processes of gifted adolescents using a competing models strategy. The two models that guided the study, which acknowledged cultural orientations, social influences from the family, occupational/career values, and characteristics of…

  19. Participative Decision-Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lindelow, John; And Others

    Chapter 6 in a volume on school leadership, this chapter makes a case for the use of participative decision-making (PDM) at the school-site level, outlines guidelines for its implementation, and describes the experiences of some schools with PDM systems. It begins by citing research indicating the advantages of PDM, including better decisions,…

  20. Culinary Decision Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curtis, Rob

    1987-01-01

    Advises directors of ways to include day care workers in the decision-making process. Enumerates benefits of using staff to help focus and direct changes in the day care center and discusses possible pitfalls in implementation of a collective decision-making approach to management. (NH)

  1. Stasis Theory as a Strategy for Workplace Teaming and Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brizee, H. Allen

    2008-01-01

    Current scholarship tells us that skills in teaming are essential for students and practitioners of professional communication. Writers must be able to cooperate with subject-matter experts and team members to make effective decisions and complete projects. Scholarship also suggests that rapid changes in technology and changes in teaming processes…

  2. Enhancing Students' Aeronautical Decision-Making through Scaffolding Strategies for Higher Order Thinking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murray, Rita Marie

    2012-01-01

    Over the last few decades, classroom training in aviation education has continued mostly unchanged. It remains a highly structured presentation of information in a lecture format. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of a method of teaching aeronautical decision making in aviation education based on integrated and scaffolded…

  3. IT Strategy and Decision-Making: A Comparison of Four Universities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilmore, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Universities are increasingly dependent on information technology (IT) to support delivery of their objectives. It is crucial, therefore, that the IT investments made lead to successful outcomes. This study analyses the governance structures and decision-making processes used to approve and prioritise IT projects. Factors influencing an…

  4. Make better decisions.

    PubMed

    Davenport, Thomas H

    2009-11-01

    Traditionally, decision making in organizations has rarely been the focus of systematic analysis. That may account for the astounding number of recent poor calls, such as decisions to invest in and securitize subprime mortgage loans or to hedge risk with credit default swaps. Business books are rich with insights about the decision process, but organizations have been slow to adopt their recommendations. It's time to focus on decision making, Davenport says, and he proposes four steps: (1) List and prioritize the decisions that must be made; (2) assess the factors that go into each, such as who plays what role, how often the decision must be made, and what information is available to support it; (3) design the roles, processes, systems, and behaviors your organization needs; and (4) institutionalize decision tools and assistance. The Educational Testing Service and The Stanley Works, among others, have succeeded in improving their decisions. ETS established a centralized deliberative body to make evidence-based decisions about new-product offerings, and Stanley has a Pricing Center of Excellence with internal consultants dedicated to its various business units. Leaders should bring multiple perspectives to their decision making, beware of analytical models that managers don't understand, be clear about their assumptions, practice "model management," and--because only people can revise decision criteria over time--cultivate human backups. PMID:19891389

  5. Single-process versus multiple-strategy models of decision making: evidence from an information intrusion paradigm.

    PubMed

    Söllner, Anke; Bröder, Arndt; Glöckner, Andreas; Betsch, Tilmann

    2014-02-01

    When decision makers are confronted with different problems and situations, do they use a uniform mechanism as assumed by single-process models (SPMs) or do they choose adaptively from a set of available decision strategies as multiple-strategy models (MSMs) imply? Both frameworks of decision making have gathered a lot of support, but only rarely have they been contrasted with each other. Employing an information intrusion paradigm for multi-attribute decisions from givens, SPM and MSM predictions on information search, decision outcomes, attention, and confidence judgments were derived and tested against each other in two experiments. The results consistently support the SPM view: Participants seemingly using a "take-the-best" (TTB) strategy do not ignore TTB-irrelevant information as MSMs would predict, but adapt the amount of information searched, choose alternative choice options, and show varying confidence judgments contingent on the quality of the "irrelevant" information. The uniformity of these findings underlines the adequacy of the novel information intrusion paradigm and comprehensively promotes the notion of a uniform decision making mechanism as assumed by single-process models.

  6. Modulators of decision making.

    PubMed

    Doya, Kenji

    2008-04-01

    Human and animal decisions are modulated by a variety of environmental and intrinsic contexts. Here I consider computational factors that can affect decision making and review anatomical structures and neurochemical systems that are related to contextual modulation of decision making. Expectation of a high reward can motivate a subject to go for an action despite a large cost, a decision that is influenced by dopamine in the anterior cingulate cortex. Uncertainty of action outcomes can promote risk taking and exploratory choices, in which norepinephrine and the orbitofrontal cortex appear to be involved. Predictable environments should facilitate consideration of longer-delayed rewards, which depends on serotonin in the dorsal striatum and dorsal prefrontal cortex. This article aims to sort out factors that affect the process of decision making from the viewpoint of reinforcement learning theory and to bridge between such computational needs and their neurophysiological substrates.

  7. Designing for Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jonassen, David H.

    2012-01-01

    Decision making is the most common kind of problem solving. It is also an important component skill in other more ill-structured and complex kinds of problem solving, including policy problems and design problems. There are different kinds of decisions, including choices, acceptances, evaluations, and constructions. After describing the centrality…

  8. Repeated Causal Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hagmayer, York; Meder, Bjorn

    2013-01-01

    Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in…

  9. Quantitative Decision Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baldwin, Grover H.

    The use of quantitative decision making tools provides the decision maker with a range of alternatives among which to decide, permits acceptance and use of the optimal solution, and decreases risk. Training line administrators in the use of these tools can help school business officials obtain reliable information upon which to base district…

  10. Shared decision making

    MedlinePlus

    ... Shared decision making to improve care and reduce costs. N Engl J Med . 2013 Jan 3;368(1):6-8. ... UW Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA. Also reviewed by David ...

  11. Integrated Decision-Making Tool to Develop Spent Fuel Strategies for Research Reactors

    SciTech Connect

    Beatty, Randy L; Harrison, Thomas J

    2016-01-01

    IAEA Member States operating or having previously operated a Research Reactor are responsible for the safe and sustainable management and disposal of associated radioactive waste, including research reactor spent nuclear fuel (RRSNF). This includes the safe disposal of RRSNF or the corresponding equivalent waste returned after spent fuel reprocessing. One key challenge to developing general recommendations lies in the diversity of spent fuel types, locations and national/regional circumstances rather than mass or volume alone. This is especially true given that RRSNF inventories are relatively small, and research reactors are rarely operated at a high power level or duration typical of commercial power plants. Presently, many countries lack an effective long-term policy for managing RRSNF. This paper presents results of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Coordinated Research Project (CRP) #T33001 on Options and Technologies for Managing the Back End of the Research Reactor Nuclear Fuel Cycle which includes an Integrated Decision Making Tool called BRIDE (Back-end Research reactor Integrated Decision Evaluation). This is a multi-attribute decision-making tool that combines the Total Estimated Cost of each life-cycle scenario with Non-economic factors such as public acceptance, technical maturity etc and ranks optional back-end scenarios specific to member states situations in order to develop a specific member state strategic plan with a preferred or recommended option for managing spent fuel from Research Reactors.

  12. Data quality and processing for decision making: divergence between corporate strategy and manufacturing processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNeil, Ronald D.; Miele, Renato; Shaul, Dennis

    2000-10-01

    Information technology is driving improvements in manufacturing systems. Results are higher productivity and quality. However, corporate strategy is driven by a number of factors and includes data and pressure from multiple stakeholders, which includes employees, managers, executives, stockholders, boards, suppliers and customers. It is also driven by information about competitors and emerging technology. Much information is based on processing of data and the resulting biases of the processors. Thus, stakeholders can base inputs on faulty perceptions, which are not reality based. Prior to processing, data used may be inaccurate. Sources of data and information may include demographic reports, statistical analyses, intelligence reports (e.g., marketing data), technology and primary data collection. The reliability and validity of data as well as the management of sources and information is critical element to strategy formulation. The paper explores data collection, processing and analyses from secondary and primary sources, information generation and report presentation for strategy formulation and contrast this with data and information utilized to drive internal process such as manufacturing. The hypothesis is that internal process, such as manufacturing, are subordinate to corporate strategies. The impact of possible divergence in quality of decisions at the corporate level on IT driven, quality-manufacturing processes based on measurable outcomes is significant. Recommendations for IT improvements at the corporate strategy level are given.

  13. Decision Making in the Airplane

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

    1995-01-01

    The Importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful In improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that

  14. Emotion and decision making.

    PubMed

    Lerner, Jennifer S; Li, Ye; Valdesolo, Piercarlo; Kassam, Karim S

    2015-01-01

    A revolution in the science of emotion has emerged in recent decades, with the potential to create a paradigm shift in decision theories. The research reveals that emotions constitute potent, pervasive, predictable, sometimes harmful and sometimes beneficial drivers of decision making. Across different domains, important regularities appear in the mechanisms through which emotions influence judgments and choices. We organize and analyze what has been learned from the past 35 years of work on emotion and decision making. In so doing, we propose the emotion-imbued choice model, which accounts for inputs from traditional rational choice theory and from newer emotion research, synthesizing scientific models.

  15. Crew decision making under stress

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orasanu, J.

    1992-01-01

    Flight crews must make decisions and take action when systems fail or emergencies arise during flight. These situations may involve high stress. Full-missiion flight simulation studies have shown that crews differ in how effectively they cope in these circumstances, judged by operational errors and crew coordination. The present study analyzed the problem solving and decision making strategies used by crews led by captains fitting three different personality profiles. Our goal was to identify more and less effective strategies that could serve as the basis for crew selection or training. Methods: Twelve 3-member B-727 crews flew a 5-leg mission simulated flight over 1 1/2 days. Two legs included 4 abnormal events that required decisions during high workload periods. Transcripts of videotapes were analyzed to describe decision making strategies. Crew performance (errors and coordination) was judged on-line and from videotapes by check airmen. Results: Based on a median split of crew performance errors, analyses to date indicate a difference in general strategy between crews who make more or less errors. Higher performance crews showed greater situational awareness - they responded quickly to cues and interpreted them appropriately. They requested more decision relevant information and took into account more constraints. Lower performing crews showed poorer situational awareness, planning, constraint sensitivity, and coordination. The major difference between higher and lower performing crews was that poorer crews made quick decisions and then collected information to confirm their decision. Conclusion: Differences in overall crew performance were associated with differences in situational awareness, information management, and decision strategy. Captain personality profiles were associated with these differences, a finding with implications for crew selection and training.

  16. Participative Decision-Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lindelow, John; And Others

    Chapter 7 of a revised volume on school leadership, this chapter advocates the use of participative decision-making (PDM) at the school site level, outlines implementation guidelines, and describes the experiences of some schools with PDM systems. A cornerstone of a reform movement to make organizational operations more democratic and less…

  17. An Integrated Environmental Assessment of Green and Gray Infrastructure Strategies for Robust Decision Making.

    PubMed

    Casal-Campos, Arturo; Fu, Guangtao; Butler, David; Moore, Andrew

    2015-07-21

    The robustness of a range of watershed-scale "green" and "gray" drainage strategies in the future is explored through comprehensive modeling of a fully integrated urban wastewater system case. Four socio-economic future scenarios, defined by parameters affecting the environmental performance of the system, are proposed to account for the uncertain variability of conditions in the year 2050. A regret-based approach is applied to assess the relative performance of strategies in multiple impact categories (environmental, economic, and social) as well as to evaluate their robustness across future scenarios. The concept of regret proves useful in identifying performance trade-offs and recognizing states of the world most critical to decisions. The study highlights the robustness of green strategies (particularly rain gardens, resulting in half the regret of most options) over end-of-pipe gray alternatives (surface water separation or sewer and storage rehabilitation), which may be costly (on average, 25% of the total regret of these options) and tend to focus on sewer flooding and CSO alleviation while compromising on downstream system performance (this accounts for around 50% of their total regret). Trade-offs and scenario regrets observed in the analysis suggest that the combination of green and gray strategies may still offer further potential for robustness. PMID:26066313

  18. An Integrated Environmental Assessment of Green and Gray Infrastructure Strategies for Robust Decision Making.

    PubMed

    Casal-Campos, Arturo; Fu, Guangtao; Butler, David; Moore, Andrew

    2015-07-21

    The robustness of a range of watershed-scale "green" and "gray" drainage strategies in the future is explored through comprehensive modeling of a fully integrated urban wastewater system case. Four socio-economic future scenarios, defined by parameters affecting the environmental performance of the system, are proposed to account for the uncertain variability of conditions in the year 2050. A regret-based approach is applied to assess the relative performance of strategies in multiple impact categories (environmental, economic, and social) as well as to evaluate their robustness across future scenarios. The concept of regret proves useful in identifying performance trade-offs and recognizing states of the world most critical to decisions. The study highlights the robustness of green strategies (particularly rain gardens, resulting in half the regret of most options) over end-of-pipe gray alternatives (surface water separation or sewer and storage rehabilitation), which may be costly (on average, 25% of the total regret of these options) and tend to focus on sewer flooding and CSO alleviation while compromising on downstream system performance (this accounts for around 50% of their total regret). Trade-offs and scenario regrets observed in the analysis suggest that the combination of green and gray strategies may still offer further potential for robustness.

  19. Navigation of Autonomous Mobile Robot under Decision-making Strategy tuned by Genetic Algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Fei; Kamano, Takuya; Yasuno, Takashi; Suzuki, Takayuki; Harada, Hironobu

    This paper describes a novel application of genetic algorithm for navigation of an autonomous mobile robot (AMR) under unknown environments. In the navigation system, the AMR is controlled by the decision-making block, which consists of neural network. To achieve both successful navigation to the goal and the suitable obstacle avoidance, the connection weights of the neural network and speed gains for predefined actions are encoded as genotypes and are tuned simultaneously by genetic algorithm so that the static and dynamic danger-degrees, the energy consumption and the distance and direction errors decrease during the navigation. Experimental results demonstrate the validity of the proposed navigation system.

  20. Respecting Stakeholders and Their Engagement to Decision Making - The Way of Successful Corporate Social Responsibility Strategy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drieniková, Katarína; Sakál, Peter

    2012-12-01

    Current world situation characterized by constant dynamic development and changes in all spheres enforced us to view the business not only as a profit creator but as creator of added value to the society. The paper deals with the stakeholders as the integral part of corporate social responsibility (CSR) concept. It mentions the topic of stakeholder theory and stakeholder management in consideration of sustainable development and sustainable competitiveness of business. Within the paper are mentioned outputs of pilot research carried on among Slovak companies focusing on stakeholders and decision making within responsible business.

  1. Training for Aviation Decision Making: The Naturalistic Decision Making Perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orasanu, Judith; Shafto, Michael G. (Technical Monitor)

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes the implications of a naturalistic decision making (NDM) perspective for training air crews to make flight-related decisions. The implications are based on two types of analyses: (a) identification of distinctive features that serve as a basis for classifying a diverse set of decision events actually encountered by flight crews, and (b) performance strategies that distinguished more from less effective crews flying full-mission simulators, as well as performance analyses from NTSB accident investigations. Six training recommendations are offered: (1) Because of the diversity of decision situations, crews need to be aware that different strategies may be appropriate for different problems; (2) Given that situation assessment is essential to making a good decision, it is important to train specific content knowledge needed to recognize critical conditions, to assess risks and available time, and to develop strategies to verify or diagnose the problem; (3) Tendencies to oversimplify problems may be overcome by training to evaluate options in terms of goals, constraints, consequences, and prevailing conditions; (4) In order to provide the time to gather information and consider options, it is essential to manage the situation, which includes managing crew workload, prioritizing tasks, contingency planning, buying time (e.g., requesting holding or vectors), and using low workload periods to prepare for high workload; (5) Evaluating resource requirements ("What do I need?") and capabilities ("'What do I have?" ) are essential to making good decisions. Using resources to meet requirements may involve the cabin crew, ATC, dispatchers, and maintenance personnel; (6) Given that decisions must often be made under high risk, time pressure, and workload, train under realistic flight conditions to promote the development of robust decision skills.

  2. Heuristic decision making in medicine

    PubMed Central

    Marewski, Julian N.; Gigerenzer, Gerd

    2012-01-01

    Can less information be more helpful when it comes to making medical decisions? Contrary to the common intuition that more information is always better, the use of heuristics can help both physicians and patients to make sound decisions. Heuristics are simple decision strategies that ignore part of the available information, basing decisions on only a few relevant predictors. We discuss: (i) how doctors and patients use heuristics; and (ii) when heuristics outperform information-greedy methods, such as regressions in medical diagnosis. Furthermore, we outline those features of heuristics that make them useful in health care settings. These features include their surprising accuracy, transparency, and wide accessibility, as well as the low costs and little time required to employ them. We close by explaining one of the statistical reasons why heuristics are accurate, and by pointing to psychiatry as one area for future research on heuristics in health care. PMID:22577307

  3. Improving work group decision-making effectiveness.

    PubMed

    Schoonover-Shoffner, K

    1989-01-01

    Many of the decisions in complex health care organizations are made by small work groups. Nurse administrators often lead or are highly involved in these groups, where reaching quality decisions is a critical goal. This paper examines research and information from the communications field, presenting a model for making decisions in small groups. The author identifies common pitfalls of decision-making groups and presents strategies for problem solving and improved decision making.

  4. Improving decision making in crisis.

    PubMed

    Higgins, Guy; Freedman, Jennifer

    2013-01-01

    The most critical activity during emergencies or crises is making decisions about what to do next. This paper provides insights into the challenges that people face in making decisions at any time, but particularly during emergencies and crises. It also introduces the reader to the concept of different sense-making/decision-making domains, the human behaviours that can adversely affect decision making - decision derailers - and ways in which emergency responders can leverage this knowledge to make better decisions. While the literature on decision making is extensive, this paper is focused on those aspects that apply particularly to decision making in emergencies or times of crisis.

  5. Matriarchal Decision-Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Warner, Linda Sue

    In contrast to European cultures, many American Indian societies have been matriarchal. Indian women have had a great deal of power, both as individuals and as groups, and have held various leadership roles within their tribes. Traditionally, Indian women have worked in partnership with men, and decision-making has been related to consensus…

  6. Different strategies underlying uncertain decision making: higher executive performance is associated with enhanced feedback-related negativity.

    PubMed

    Kóbor, Andrea; Takács, Ádám; Janacsek, Karolina; Németh, Dezső; Honbolygó, Ferenc; Csépe, Valéria

    2015-03-01

    The aim of the present study was to investigate the role of executive functions (EFs) in different strategies underlying risky decision making. Adult participants from a nonclinical sample were assigned to low or high EF groups based on their performance on EF tasks measuring shifting, updating, and inhibition. ERPs were recorded while participants performed the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART). In this task, each balloon pump was associated with either a reward or a balloon pop with unknown probability. The BART behavioral measures did not show between-group differences. However, the feedback-related negativity (FRN) associated with undesirable outcomes was larger in the high EF group than in the low EF group. Since the FRN represents salience prediction error, our results suggest that the high EF group formed internal models that were violated by the outcomes. Thus, we provided ERP evidence for EFs influencing risky decision-making processes. PMID:25224177

  7. Shared clinical decision making

    PubMed Central

    AlHaqwi, Ali I.; AlDrees, Turki M.; AlRumayyan, Ahmad; AlFarhan, Ali I.; Alotaibi, Sultan S.; AlKhashan, Hesham I.; Badri, Motasim

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: To determine preferences of patients regarding their involvement in the clinical decision making process and the related factors in Saudi Arabia. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted in a major family practice center in King Abdulaziz Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, between March and May 2012. Multivariate multinomial regression models were fitted to identify factors associated with patients preferences. Results: The study included 236 participants. The most preferred decision-making style was shared decision-making (57%), followed by paternalistic (28%), and informed consumerism (14%). The preference for shared clinical decision making was significantly higher among male patients and those with higher level of education, whereas paternalism was significantly higher among older patients and those with chronic health conditions, and consumerism was significantly higher in younger age groups. In multivariate multinomial regression analysis, compared with the shared group, the consumerism group were more likely to be female [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) =2.87, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.31-6.27, p=0.008] and non-dyslipidemic (AOR=2.90, 95% CI: 1.03-8.09, p=0.04), and the paternalism group were more likely to be older (AOR=1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.05, p=0.04), and female (AOR=2.47, 95% CI: 1.32-4.06, p=0.008). Conclusion: Preferences of patients for involvement in the clinical decision-making varied considerably. In our setting, underlying factors that influence these preferences identified in this study should be considered and tailored individually to achieve optimal treatment outcomes. PMID:26620990

  8. The science of medical decision making: neurosurgery, errors, and personal cognitive strategies for improving quality of care.

    PubMed

    Fargen, Kyle M; Friedman, William A

    2014-01-01

    During the last 2 decades, there has been a shift in the U.S. health care system towards improving the quality of health care provided by enhancing patient safety and reducing medical errors. Unfortunately, surgical complications, patient harm events, and malpractice claims remain common in the field of neurosurgery. Many of these events are potentially avoidable. There are an increasing number of publications in the medical literature in which authors address cognitive errors in diagnosis and treatment and strategies for reducing such errors, but these are for the most part absent in the neurosurgical literature. The purpose of this article is to highlight the complexities of medical decision making to a neurosurgical audience, with the hope of providing insight into the biases that lead us towards error and strategies to overcome our innate cognitive deficiencies. To accomplish this goal, we review the current literature on medical errors and just culture, explain the dual process theory of cognition, identify common cognitive errors affecting neurosurgeons in practice, review cognitive debiasing strategies, and finally provide simple methods that can be easily assimilated into neurosurgical practice to improve clinical decision making.

  9. Disease transmission models for public health decision-making: designing intervention strategies for Schistosoma japonicum.

    PubMed

    Seto, Edmund Y W; Carlton, Elizabeth J

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of infectious disease transmission modelling is often to understand the factors that are responsible for the persistence of transmission, the dynamics of the infection process and how best to control transmission. As such, there should be great potential to use mathematical models to routinely plan and evaluate disease control programs. In reality, there are many challenges that have precluded the practical use of disease models in this regard. One challenge relates to the mathematical complexity of the models, which has made it difficult for field workers and health officials to understand and use them. Another challenge is that, despite their mathematical complexity, models typically do not have sufficient structural complexity to consider many of the site-specific epidemiologic and disease control details that the practicing health official routinely considers. Moreover, most modelling studies have not been sufficiently explicit or exemplary in explaining how field data may be incorporated into the models to impact public health decision-making. In this chapter, we start with a classic model of schistosomiasis transmission and relate its key properties to the more detailed model of Schistosoma japonicum model presented in chapter by Remais and chapter by Spear and Hubbard. We then discuss how various controls (e.g., chemotherapy, snail control and sanitation) may be evaluated via the detailed model. We then demonstrate in a practical manner, using S. japonicum data from China, how field data may be incorporated to inform the practice of disease control. Finally, we present a new model structure that considers how heterogeneous populations are interconnected, which has particular relevance to understanding disease control and emergence in today's highly mobile world.

  10. Interpersonal Influence Strategies Applied to Sexual Decision-Making of Adolescents.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Falbo, Toni; Eisen, Marvin

    Little is known about the power strategies adolescents view as effective in influencing an intimate partner to have or avoid having sexual intercourse. These strategies were examined in a pretest survey of 203 adolescents who reported their agreement or disagreement with strategies used to have protected sex or to avoid having sex with a…

  11. Making Decisions in Quality Circles.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Browne, Mildred

    This monograph provides educational staff with a theoretical basis for decision-making skills for application in quality circles. Roadblocks to good decisions are outlined, as well as the differences between group decision-making and individual decision-making (both have problems). The influence of values and personality characteristics on…

  12. Strategy in Regulatory Decision-Making for Management of Progressive Multifocal Leukoencephalopathy.

    PubMed

    Segec, A; Keller-Stanislawski, B; Vermeer, N S; Macchiarulo, C; Straus, S M; Hidalgo-Simon, A; De Bruin, M L

    2015-11-01

    Progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) has been observed after the use of several medicines, including monoclonal antibodies. As these drugs play important roles in the therapeutic armamentarium, it is important to address the challenges that this severe adverse reaction poses to the safe use of medicines. Considering the need for consistent outcomes of regulatory decisions, the European Medicines Agency Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee (PRAC) used PML as an example to develop a systematic approach to labeling and risk minimization.

  13. Making a decision to forgive.

    PubMed

    Davis, Don E; Hook, Joshua N; Van Tongeren, Daryl R; DeBlaere, Cirleen; Rice, Kenneth G; Worthington, Everett L

    2015-04-01

    Prominent models and interventions designed to promote forgiveness have distinguished one's decision to forgive from achieving forgiveness as an end state, but because of a lack of a strong measure, there is a weak research base on making a decision to forgive. Thus, in three studies, the authors developed the Decision to Forgive Scale (DTFS) and examined evidence for its reliability and construct validity. The article focused on distinguishing making a decision to forgive from achieved level of forgiveness. Scores on the DTFS showed evidence of reliability, with Cronbach's alpha coefficients ranging from .92 to .94, and a 1-week temporal stability coefficient of .68. Using several strategies, the authors demonstrated that the DTFS is empirically distinct from the Transgression-Related Interpersonal Motivations scale (TRIM; McCullough et al., 1998). Namely, a 3-factor confirmatory factor analysis that included the DTFS and the 2 TRIM subscales showed excellent fit, suggesting these instruments assess 3 different constructs. The DTFS was only moderately related to the TRIM subscales, was more strongly related to stage of change than the TRIM, and predicted subsequent TRIM scores in a cross-lagged model. Finally, although decisions to forgive generally suggested greater forgiveness, these constructs interacted to predict existential distress. Namely, as decisional forgiveness increased, revenge was more strongly related to existential distress. Overall, the DTFS shows considerable promise for further clinical and basic research applications. PMID:25621589

  14. [Decision Making and Electrodermal Activity].

    PubMed

    Kobayakawa, Mutsutaka

    2016-08-01

    Decision making is aided by emotions. Bodily responses, such as sweating, heartbeat, and visceral sensation, are used to monitor the emotional state during decision making. Because decision making in dairy life is complicated and cognitively demanding, these bodily signals are thought to facilitate the decision making process by assigning positive or negative values for each of the behavioral options. The sweat response in a decision making task is measured by skin conductance response (SCR). SCR in decision making is divided into two categories: anticipatory SCR is observed before making decisions, and reward/punishment SCR is observed after the outcome of the decision is perceived. Brain lesion studies in human revealed that the amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex are important in decision making. Patients with lesinon in the amygdala exhibit neither the anticipatory nor reward/punishment SCRs, while patients with the ventromedial prefrontal lesions have deficits only in the anticipatory SCRs. Decision making tasks and SCR analysis have contributed to reveal the implicit aspects of decision making. Further research is necessary for clarifying the role of explicit process of decision making and its relationship with the implicit process.

  15. [Decision Making and Electrodermal Activity].

    PubMed

    Kobayakawa, Mutsutaka

    2016-08-01

    Decision making is aided by emotions. Bodily responses, such as sweating, heartbeat, and visceral sensation, are used to monitor the emotional state during decision making. Because decision making in dairy life is complicated and cognitively demanding, these bodily signals are thought to facilitate the decision making process by assigning positive or negative values for each of the behavioral options. The sweat response in a decision making task is measured by skin conductance response (SCR). SCR in decision making is divided into two categories: anticipatory SCR is observed before making decisions, and reward/punishment SCR is observed after the outcome of the decision is perceived. Brain lesion studies in human revealed that the amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex are important in decision making. Patients with lesinon in the amygdala exhibit neither the anticipatory nor reward/punishment SCRs, while patients with the ventromedial prefrontal lesions have deficits only in the anticipatory SCRs. Decision making tasks and SCR analysis have contributed to reveal the implicit aspects of decision making. Further research is necessary for clarifying the role of explicit process of decision making and its relationship with the implicit process. PMID:27503819

  16. Inertia and Decision Making.

    PubMed

    Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Hügelschäfer, Sabine; Li, Jiahui

    2016-01-01

    Decision inertia is the tendency to repeat previous choices independently of the outcome, which can give rise to perseveration in suboptimal choices. We investigate this tendency in probability-updating tasks. Study 1 shows that, whenever decision inertia conflicts with normatively optimal behavior (Bayesian updating), error rates are larger and decisions are slower. This is consistent with a dual-process view of decision inertia as an automatic process conflicting with a more rational, controlled one. We find evidence of decision inertia in both required and autonomous decisions, but the effect of inertia is more clear in the latter. Study 2 considers more complex decision situations where further conflict arises due to reinforcement processes. We find the same effects of decision inertia when reinforcement is aligned with Bayesian updating, but if the two latter processes conflict, the effects are limited to autonomous choices. Additionally, both studies show that the tendency to rely on decision inertia is positively associated with preference for consistency.

  17. Actions, Observations, and Decision-Making: Biologically Inspired Strategies for Autonomous Aerial Vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pisanich, Greg; Ippolito, Corey; Plice, Laura; Young, Larry A.; Lau, Benton

    2003-01-01

    This paper details the development and demonstration of an autonomous aerial vehicle embodying search and find mission planning and execution srrategies inspired by foraging behaviors found in biology. It begins by describing key characteristics required by an aeria! explorer to support science and planetary exploration goals, and illustrates these through a hypothetical mission profile. It next outlines a conceptual bio- inspired search and find autonomy architecture that implements observations, decisions, and actions through an "ecology" of producer, consumer, and decomposer agents. Moving from concepts to development activities, it then presents the results of mission representative UAV aerial surveys at a Mars analog site. It next describes hardware and software enhancements made to a commercial small fixed-wing UAV system, which inc!nde a ncw dpvelopnent architecture that also provides hardware in the loop simulation capability. After presenting the results of simulated and actual flights of bioinspired flight algorithms, it concludes with a discussion of future development to include an expansion of system capabilities and field science support.

  18. Wildfire Decision Making Under Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, M.

    2013-12-01

    Decisions relating to wildfire management are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, and are made by a broad range of individuals, across a multitude of environmental and socioeconomic contexts. In this presentation I will review progress towards identification and characterization of uncertainties and how this information can support wildfire decision-making. First, I will review a typology of uncertainties common to wildfire management, highlighting some of the more salient sources of uncertainty and how they present challenges to assessing wildfire risk. This discussion will cover the expanding role of burn probability modeling, approaches for characterizing fire effects, and the role of multi-criteria decision analysis, and will provide illustrative examples of integrated wildfire risk assessment across a variety of planning scales. Second, I will describe a related uncertainty typology that focuses on the human dimensions of wildfire management, specifically addressing how social, psychological, and institutional factors may impair cost-effective risk mitigation. This discussion will encompass decision processes before, during, and after fire events, with a specific focus on active management of complex wildfire incidents. An improved ability to characterize uncertainties faced in wildfire management could lead to improved delivery of decision support, targeted communication strategies, and ultimately to improved wildfire management outcomes.

  19. Composite collective decision-making

    PubMed Central

    Czaczkes, Tomer J.; Czaczkes, Benjamin; Iglhaut, Carolin; Heinze, Jürgen

    2015-01-01

    Individual animals are adept at making decisions and have cognitive abilities, such as memory, which allow them to hone their decisions. Social animals can also share information. This allows social animals to make adaptive group-level decisions. Both individual and collective decision-making systems also have drawbacks and limitations, and while both are well studied, the interaction between them is still poorly understood. Here, we study how individual and collective decision-making interact during ant foraging. We first gathered empirical data on memory-based foraging persistence in the ant Lasius niger. We used these data to create an agent-based model where ants may use social information (trail pheromones), private information (memories) or both to make foraging decisions. The combined use of social and private information by individuals results in greater efficiency at the group level than when either information source was used alone. The modelled ants couple consensus decision-making, allowing them to quickly exploit high-quality food sources, and combined decision-making, allowing different individuals to specialize in exploiting different resource patches. Such a composite collective decision-making system reaps the benefits of both its constituent parts. Exploiting such insights into composite collective decision-making may lead to improved decision-making algorithms. PMID:26019155

  20. Composite collective decision-making.

    PubMed

    Czaczkes, Tomer J; Czaczkes, Benjamin; Iglhaut, Carolin; Heinze, Jürgen

    2015-06-22

    Individual animals are adept at making decisions and have cognitive abilities, such as memory, which allow them to hone their decisions. Social animals can also share information. This allows social animals to make adaptive group-level decisions. Both individual and collective decision-making systems also have drawbacks and limitations, and while both are well studied, the interaction between them is still poorly understood. Here, we study how individual and collective decision-making interact during ant foraging. We first gathered empirical data on memory-based foraging persistence in the ant Lasius niger. We used these data to create an agent-based model where ants may use social information (trail pheromones), private information (memories) or both to make foraging decisions. The combined use of social and private information by individuals results in greater efficiency at the group level than when either information source was used alone. The modelled ants couple consensus decision-making, allowing them to quickly exploit high-quality food sources, and combined decision-making, allowing different individuals to specialize in exploiting different resource patches. Such a composite collective decision-making system reaps the benefits of both its constituent parts. Exploiting such insights into composite collective decision-making may lead to improved decision-making algorithms.

  1. Composite collective decision-making.

    PubMed

    Czaczkes, Tomer J; Czaczkes, Benjamin; Iglhaut, Carolin; Heinze, Jürgen

    2015-06-22

    Individual animals are adept at making decisions and have cognitive abilities, such as memory, which allow them to hone their decisions. Social animals can also share information. This allows social animals to make adaptive group-level decisions. Both individual and collective decision-making systems also have drawbacks and limitations, and while both are well studied, the interaction between them is still poorly understood. Here, we study how individual and collective decision-making interact during ant foraging. We first gathered empirical data on memory-based foraging persistence in the ant Lasius niger. We used these data to create an agent-based model where ants may use social information (trail pheromones), private information (memories) or both to make foraging decisions. The combined use of social and private information by individuals results in greater efficiency at the group level than when either information source was used alone. The modelled ants couple consensus decision-making, allowing them to quickly exploit high-quality food sources, and combined decision-making, allowing different individuals to specialize in exploiting different resource patches. Such a composite collective decision-making system reaps the benefits of both its constituent parts. Exploiting such insights into composite collective decision-making may lead to improved decision-making algorithms. PMID:26019155

  2. Breast Conservation Therapy Versus Mastectomy: Shared Decision-Making Strategies and Overcoming Decisional Conflicts in Your Patients.

    PubMed

    Margenthaler, Julie A; Ollila, David W

    2016-10-01

    Although breast-conserving therapy is considered the preferred treatment for the majority of women with early-stage breast cancer, mastectomy rates in this group remain high. The patient, physician, and systems factors contributing to a decision for mastectomy are complicated. Understanding the individual patient's values and goals when making this decision is paramount to providing a shared decision-making process that will yield the desired outcome. The cornerstones of this discussion include education of the patient, access to decision-aid tools, and time to make an informed decision. However, it is also paramount for the physician to understand that a significant majority of women with an informed and complete understanding of their surgical choices will still prefer mastectomy. The rates of breast conservation versus mastectomy should not be considered a quality measure alone. Rather, the extent by which patients are informed, involved in decision-making, and undergoing treatments that reflect their goals is the true test of quality. Here we explore some of the factors that impact the patient preference for breast conservation versus mastectomy and how shared decision-making can be maximized for patient satisfaction.

  3. Inertia and Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Hügelschäfer, Sabine; Li, Jiahui

    2016-01-01

    Decision inertia is the tendency to repeat previous choices independently of the outcome, which can give rise to perseveration in suboptimal choices. We investigate this tendency in probability-updating tasks. Study 1 shows that, whenever decision inertia conflicts with normatively optimal behavior (Bayesian updating), error rates are larger and decisions are slower. This is consistent with a dual-process view of decision inertia as an automatic process conflicting with a more rational, controlled one. We find evidence of decision inertia in both required and autonomous decisions, but the effect of inertia is more clear in the latter. Study 2 considers more complex decision situations where further conflict arises due to reinforcement processes. We find the same effects of decision inertia when reinforcement is aligned with Bayesian updating, but if the two latter processes conflict, the effects are limited to autonomous choices. Additionally, both studies show that the tendency to rely on decision inertia is positively associated with preference for consistency. PMID:26909061

  4. Decision making in surgical oncology.

    PubMed

    Lamb, B; Green, J S A; Vincent, C; Sevdalis, N

    2011-09-01

    Decisions in surgical oncology are increasingly being made by multi-disciplinary teams (MDTs). Although MDTs have been widely accepted as the preferred model for cancer service delivery, the process of decision making has not been well described and there is little evidence pointing to the ideal structure of an MDT. Performance in surgery has been shown to depend on non-technical skills, such as decision making, as well as patient factors and the technical skills of the healthcare team. Application of this systems approach to MDT working allows the identification of factors that affect the quality of decision making for cancer patients. In this article we review the literature on decision making in surgical oncology and by drawing from the systems approach to surgical performance we provide a framework for understanding the process of decision making in MDTs. Technical factors that affect decision making include the information about patients, robust ICT and video-conferencing equipment, a minimum dataset with expert review of radiological and pathological information, implementation and recording of the MDTs decision. Non-technical factors with an impact on decision making include attendance of team members at meetings, leadership, teamwork, open discussion, consensus on decisions and communication with patients and primary care. Optimising these factors will strengthen the decision making process and raise the quality of care for cancer patients.

  5. Decision making in surgical oncology.

    PubMed

    Lamb, B; Green, J S A; Vincent, C; Sevdalis, N

    2011-09-01

    Decisions in surgical oncology are increasingly being made by multi-disciplinary teams (MDTs). Although MDTs have been widely accepted as the preferred model for cancer service delivery, the process of decision making has not been well described and there is little evidence pointing to the ideal structure of an MDT. Performance in surgery has been shown to depend on non-technical skills, such as decision making, as well as patient factors and the technical skills of the healthcare team. Application of this systems approach to MDT working allows the identification of factors that affect the quality of decision making for cancer patients. In this article we review the literature on decision making in surgical oncology and by drawing from the systems approach to surgical performance we provide a framework for understanding the process of decision making in MDTs. Technical factors that affect decision making include the information about patients, robust ICT and video-conferencing equipment, a minimum dataset with expert review of radiological and pathological information, implementation and recording of the MDTs decision. Non-technical factors with an impact on decision making include attendance of team members at meetings, leadership, teamwork, open discussion, consensus on decisions and communication with patients and primary care. Optimising these factors will strengthen the decision making process and raise the quality of care for cancer patients. PMID:20719499

  6. Cognitive processes in anesthesiology decision making.

    PubMed

    Stiegler, Marjorie Podraza; Tung, Avery

    2014-01-01

    The quality and safety of health care are under increasing scrutiny. Recent studies suggest that medical errors, practice variability, and guideline noncompliance are common, and that cognitive error contributes significantly to delayed or incorrect diagnoses. These observations have increased interest in understanding decision-making psychology.Many nonrational (i.e., not purely based in statistics) cognitive factors influence medical decisions and may lead to error. The most well-studied include heuristics, preferences for certainty, overconfidence, affective (emotional) influences, memory distortions, bias, and social forces such as fairness or blame.Although the extent to which such cognitive processes play a role in anesthesia practice is unknown, anesthesia care frequently requires rapid, complex decisions that are most susceptible to decision errors. This review will examine current theories of human decision behavior, identify effects of nonrational cognitive processes on decision making, describe characteristic anesthesia decisions in this context, and suggest strategies to improve decision making.

  7. [Neural mechanisms of decision making].

    PubMed

    Funahashi, Shintaro

    2008-09-01

    Decision-making plays an important role in the transformation of incoming sensory information to purposeful actions. Many decisions have important biological and social consequences, while others may have a more limited impact on our everyday life. The neural mechanisms of decision-making currently constitute an important subject under intense investigation in the field of cognitive and behavioral neuroscience. Among the investigations, on this topic, those involving sensory discrimination tasks using visual motion have provided a wealth of information about the nature of the neural circuitry required to perform perceptual decision-making. For example, by using a motion discrimination task, Shadlen and Newsome have shown an essential role of area LIP in perceptual decision-making. On the other hand, the importance of reward and reward expectations as determinants of decision-making is increasingly appreciated. In particular, reinforcement learning and economic theories, such as game theory, have provided valuable insights into the brain functions related to decision-making. By using a competitive game analogous to matching pennies against a computer, Lee's group showed that in monkeys, previous selections modulated prefrontal neural activity and that this modulation affected the current choice behavior. The prefrontal cortex has been shown to participate in decision-making in free-choice conditions. By using a task involving the free choice of 1 target from multiple saccade targets, Funahashi's group examined the prefrontal participation in decision-making in a free-choice condition. They compared the activities of prefrontal neurons during an oculomotor delay task with forced-choice conditions and free-choice conditions and identified the neural components reflecting the underlying decision-making processes. Although several attempts have been made to understand the neural mechanisms of decision-making, further investigations are required to fully understand these

  8. Hospice Decision Making: Diagnosis Makes a Difference

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Waldrop, Deborah P.; Meeker, Mary Ann

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: This study explored the process of decision making about hospice enrollment and identified factors that influence the timing of that decision. Methods: This study employed an exploratory, descriptive, cross-sectional design and was conducted using qualitative methods. In-depth in-person semistructured interviews were conducted with 36…

  9. Shared Problem Models and Crew Decision Making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    The importance of crew decision making to aviation safety has been well established through NTSB accident analyses: Crew judgment and decision making have been cited as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents in commercial air transport, general aviation, and military aviation. Yet the bulk of research on decision making has not proven helpful in improving the quality of decisions in the cockpit. One reason is that traditional analytic decision models are inappropriate to the dynamic complex nature of cockpit decision making and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions. A new model of dynamic naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove more useful for training or aiding cockpit decision making. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulation and National Transportation Safety Board accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation and reflect the crew's metacognitive skill. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relation between communication that serves to build performance. Implications of these findings for crew training will be discussed.

  10. Making Group Decisions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Drennen, Nancy Hungerford

    1982-01-01

    For greater effectiveness, attention should be paid to how group decisions are made. The process of consensus-seeking encourages appraisal of more information and provides a broader range of potential alternatives. (SK)

  11. Robust Decision Making

    SciTech Connect

    Christopher A. Dieckmann, PE, CSEP-Acq

    2010-07-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is funded through the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy and other customers who have direct contracts with the Laboratory. The people, equipment, facilities and other infrastructure at the laboratory require continual investment to maintain and improve the laboratory’s capabilities. With ever tightening federal and customer budgets, the ability to direct investments into the people, equipment, facilities and other infrastructure which are most closely aligned with the laboratory’s mission and customers’ goals grows increasingly more important. The ability to justify those investment decisions based on objective criteria that can withstand political, managerial and technical criticism also becomes increasingly more important. The Systems Engineering tools of decision analysis, risk management and roadmapping, when properly applied to such problems, can provide defensible decisions.

  12. Decision making: the neuroethological turn

    PubMed Central

    Pearson, John M.; Watson, Karli K.; Platt, Michael L.

    2014-01-01

    Neuroeconomics applies models from economics and psychology to inform neurobiological studies of choice. This approach has revealed neural signatures of concepts like value, risk, and ambiguity, which are known to influence decision-making. Such observations have led theorists to hypothesize a single, unified decision process that mediates choice behavior via a common neural currency for outcomes like food, money, or social praise. In parallel, recent neuroethological studies of decision-making have focused on natural behaviors like foraging, mate choice, and social interactions. These decisions strongly impact evolutionary fitness and thus are likely to have played a key role in shaping the neural circuits that mediate decision-making. This approach has revealed a suite of computational motifs that appear to be shared across a wide variety of organisms. We argue that the existence of deep homologies in the neural circuits mediating choice may have profound implications for understanding human decision-making in health and disease. PMID:24908481

  13. Decision making: the neuroethological turn.

    PubMed

    Pearson, John M; Watson, Karli K; Platt, Michael L

    2014-06-01

    Neuroeconomics applies models from economics and psychology to inform neurobiological studies of choice. This approach has revealed neural signatures of concepts like value, risk, and ambiguity, which are known to influence decision making. Such observations have led theorists to hypothesize a single, unified decision process that mediates choice behavior via a common neural currency for outcomes like food, money, or social praise. In parallel, recent neuroethological studies of decision making have focused on natural behaviors like foraging, mate choice, and social interactions. These decisions strongly impact evolutionary fitness and thus are likely to have played a key role in shaping the neural circuits that mediate decision making. This approach has revealed a suite of computational motifs that appear to be shared across a wide variety of organisms. We argue that the existence of deep homologies in the neural circuits mediating choice may have profound implications for understanding human decision making in health and disease. PMID:24908481

  14. Decision Making and Health Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duryea, Elias J.

    1983-01-01

    A position statement is offered that clarifies the function, role, and emphasis of decision making within the field of health education, and a rationale that proposes that health decision-making efforts be limited to areas where evidence links a health behavior (i.e., smoking) to a health problem (i.e., lung cancer) is presented. (Author/CJ)

  15. Ethical Decision Making: Basic Issues

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bradley, Loretta J.; Hendricks, C. Bret

    2008-01-01

    Among counselors, ethical dilemmas occur often. Although ethical dilemmas are challenging, they can be solved by implementing a code of ethics and/or an ethical decision-making model. Using case studies, the authors illustrate how counselors can make informed, accurate decisions that are made to protect the welfare of the client. It also helps…

  16. Making Good Tenure Decisions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Becker, Samuel L.; Galvin, Kathleen M.; Houston, Marsha; Friedrich, Gustav W.; Pearson, Judy C.; Seiler, William J.; Trent, Judith S.

    2001-01-01

    Presents criteria and procedures that can help to substantially increase the probability of a good tenure decision. Notes that the tenure procedures must be designed and followed in a way that ensures, to the degree possible, validity, fairness, and equity. Stresses the importance of maintaining good records and mentoring. (SG)

  17. [Decision-making in health].

    PubMed

    Tabuteau, Didler

    2008-01-01

    A number of different types of health decisions and choices can be distinguished from a wide range: individual decisions, health policy decisions, health action decisions, regulatory decisions regarding the health system, micro-level health decisions and decisions made outside of the health sector. With regard to health-related matters, decision-making is characterised by the level of uncertainty, the complexity of the health system and its structure, the role of urgency and the obligation to act; however, there is a significant emotional factor in these decisions and the supremacy of the individual in the decision-making process. On the policy side, health-related decision-making poses questions concerning the role of expertise and necessitates the development of public debate. The issue of a better balance between the quest for security and safety and respect for civil liberties and rights should be more and more acute in the future. As for the matter of health financing, namely through social security and insurance, it calls for a re-examination of the economic analysis of health decisions and policy and the development of a more coherent position on the right to health versus the right to universal coverage.

  18. Students' Use of Decision-Making Strategies with Regard to Socioscientific Issues: An Application of the Rasch Partial Credit Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eggert, Sabina; Bogeholz, Susanne

    2010-01-01

    Decision making about socioscientific issues is an important aspect of modern science education worldwide. Among the many topics that represent socioscientific issues, issues relating to the sustainable development of our environment are one crucial topic. However, difficulties exist with respect to the assessment of teaching outcomes related to…

  19. Making tough decisions.

    PubMed

    Vail, S

    1995-12-01

    It is amazing that so much money is spent on health care with little understanding and measurement of its effect on people's health status. But tightened health care budgets and the explosion of new and often expensive health care technologies have forced governments, providers and taxpayers to examine how best to maximize health dollars. This has led to greater reliance on economic evaluations to help make difficult choices.

  20. Weather to Make a Decision

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoyle, Julie E.; Mjelde, James W.; Litzenberg, Kerry K.

    2006-01-01

    DECIDE is a teacher-friendly, integrated approach designed to stimulate learning by allowing students to make decisions about situations they face in their lives while using scientific weather principles. This learning unit integrates weather science, decision theory, mathematics, statistics, geography, and reading in a context of decision…

  1. Sterilization surgery - making a decision

    MedlinePlus

    ... can sometimes be reversed, both must be considered permanent forms of birth control. When deciding if you want to have a ... other options for preventing pregnancy that are not permanent. Talk ... before making the decision to have a sterilization procedure.

  2. Understanding Decision Making in Critical Care

    PubMed Central

    Lighthall, Geoffrey K.; Vazquez-Guillamet, Cristina

    2015-01-01

    Background Human decision making involves the deliberate formulation of hypotheses and plans as well as the use of subconscious means of judging probability, likely outcome, and proper action. Rationale There is a growing recognition that intuitive strategies such as use of heuristics and pattern recognition described in other industries are applicable to high-acuity environments in medicine. Despite the applicability of theories of cognition to the intensive care unit, a discussion of decision-making strategies is currently absent in the critical care literature. Content This article provides an overview of known cognitive strategies, as well as a synthesis of their use in critical care. By understanding the ways by which humans formulate diagnoses and make critical decisions, we may be able to minimize errors in our own judgments as well as build training activities around known strengths and limitations of cognition. PMID:26387708

  3. Aging and consumer decision making

    PubMed Central

    Carpenter, Stephanie M.; Yoon, Carolyn

    2013-01-01

    Research on consumer decision making and aging is especially important for fostering a better understanding of ways to maintain consumer satisfaction and high decision quality across the life span. We provide a review of extant research on the effects of normal aging on cognition and decision processes and how these age-related processes are influenced by task environment, meaningfulness of the task, and consumer expertise. We consider how research centered on these topics generates insights about changes in consumption decisions that occur with aging and identify a number of gaps and directions for future research. PMID:22360794

  4. Knowledge translation strategies to improve the use of evidence in public health decision making in local government: intervention design and implementation plan

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Knowledge translation strategies are an approach to increase the use of evidence within policy and practice decision-making contexts. In clinical and health service contexts, knowledge translation strategies have focused on individual behavior change, however the multi-system context of public health requires a multi-level, multi-strategy approach. This paper describes the design of and implementation plan for a knowledge translation intervention for public health decision making in local government. Methods Four preliminary research studies contributed findings to the design of the intervention: a systematic review of knowledge translation intervention effectiveness research, a scoping study of knowledge translation perspectives and relevant theory literature, a survey of the local government public health workforce, and a study of the use of evidence-informed decision-making for public health in local government. A logic model was then developed to represent the putative pathways between intervention inputs, processes, and outcomes operating between individual-, organizational-, and system-level strategies. This formed the basis of the intervention plan. Results The systematic and scoping reviews identified that effective and promising strategies to increase access to research evidence require an integrated intervention of skill development, access to a knowledge broker, resources and tools for evidence-informed decision making, and networking for information sharing. Interviews and survey analysis suggested that the intervention needs to operate at individual and organizational levels, comprising workforce development, access to evidence, and regular contact with a knowledge broker to increase access to intervention evidence; develop skills in appraisal and integration of evidence; strengthen networks; and explore organizational factors to build organizational cultures receptive to embedding evidence in practice. The logic model incorporated these

  5. Is it the time to rethink clinical decision-making strategies? From a single clinical outcome evaluation to a Clinical Multi-criteria Decision Assessment (CMDA).

    PubMed

    Migliore, Alberto; Integlia, Davide; Bizzi, Emanuele; Piaggio, Tomaso

    2015-10-01

    There are plenty of different clinical, organizational and economic parameters to consider in order having a complete assessment of the total impact of a pharmaceutical treatment. In the attempt to follow, a holistic approach aimed to provide an evaluation embracing all clinical parameters in order to choose the best treatments, it is necessary to compare and weight multiple criteria. Therefore, a change is required: we need to move from a decision-making context based on the assessment of one single criteria towards a transparent and systematic framework enabling decision makers to assess all relevant parameters simultaneously in order to choose the best treatment to use. In order to apply the MCDA methodology to clinical decision making the best pharmaceutical treatment (or medical devices) to use to treat a specific pathology, we suggest a specific application of the Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for the purpose, like a Clinical Multi-criteria Decision Assessment CMDA. In CMDA, results from both meta-analysis and observational studies are used by a clinical consensus after attributing weights to specific domains and related parameters. The decision will result from a related comparison of all consequences (i.e., efficacy, safety, adherence, administration route) existing behind the choice to use a specific pharmacological treatment. The match will yield a score (in absolute value) that link each parameter with a specific intervention, and then a final score for each treatment. The higher is the final score; the most appropriate is the intervention to treat disease considering all criteria (domain an parameters). The results will allow the physician to evaluate the best clinical treatment for his patients considering at the same time all relevant criteria such as clinical effectiveness for all parameters and administration route. The use of CMDA model will yield a clear and complete indication of the best pharmaceutical treatment to use for patients

  6. Making tough choices: HIV ethical decision making.

    PubMed

    1999-05-01

    A panel of the American Psychological Association (APA) has developed a simple, user friendly process to facilitate ethical and clinical decision making in cases involving HIV disease. The model is based on the five ethical principles of autonomy, beneficence, nonmaleficence, fidelity, and justice. This article examines how the model could be applied to a hypothetical case of a private practice client and his therapist. The ethical question in this case concerns whether to reveal a patient's serostatus to his wife.

  7. Structured decision making: Chapter 5

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, Michael C.; Grand, James B.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Krausman, Paul R.; Cain, James W. III

    2013-01-01

    Wildlife management is a decision-focused discipline. It needs to integrate traditional wildlife science and social science to identify actions that are most likely to achieve the array of desires society has surrounding wildlife populations. Decision science, a vast field with roots in economics, operations research, and psychology, offers a rich set of tools to help wildlife managers frame, decompose, analyze, and synthesize their decisions. The nature of wildlife management as a decision science has been recognized since the inception of the field, but formal methods of decision analysis have been underused. There is tremendous potential for wildlife management to grow further through the use of formal decision analysis. First, the wildlife science and human dimensions of wildlife disciplines can be readily integrated. Second, decisions can become more efficient. Third, decisions makers can communicate more clearly with stakeholders and the public. Fourth, good, intuitive wildlife managers, by explicitly examining how they make decisions, can translate their art into a science that is readily used by the next generation.

  8. Bridging the gap: exploring the barriers to using economic evidence in healthcare decision making and strategies for improving uptake.

    PubMed

    Merlo, Gregory; Page, Katie; Ratcliffe, Julie; Halton, Kate; Graves, Nicholas

    2015-06-01

    Evidence from economic evaluations is often not used to inform healthcare policy despite being well regarded by policy makers and physicians. This article employs the accessibility and acceptability framework to review the barriers to using evidence from economic evaluation in healthcare policy and the strategies used to overcome these barriers. Economic evaluations are often inaccessible to policymakers due to the absence of relevant economic evaluations, the time and cost required to conduct and interpret economic evaluations, and lack of expertise to evaluate quality and interpret results. Consistently reported factors that limit the translation of findings from economic evaluations into healthcare policy include poor quality of research informing economic evaluations, assumptions used in economic modelling, conflicts of interest, difficulties in transferring resources between sectors, negative attitudes to healthcare rationing, and the absence of equity considerations. Strategies to overcome these barriers have been suggested in the literature, including training, structured abstract databases, rapid evaluation, reporting checklists for journals, and considering factors other than cost effectiveness in economic evaluations, such as equity or budget impact. The factors that prevent or encourage decision makers to use evidence from economic evaluations have been identified, but the relative importance of these factors to decision makers is uncertain.

  9. Writing as decision-making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Souther, J. W.

    1981-01-01

    The need to teach informational writing as a decision-making process is discussed. Situational analysis, its relationship to decisions in writing, and the need for relevant assignments are considered. Teaching students to ask the right questions is covered. The need to teach writing responsiveness is described. Three steps to get started and four teaching techniques are described. The information needs of the 'expert' and the 'manager' are contrasted.

  10. Models of Affective Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Charpentier, Caroline J.; De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Li, Xinyi; Roiser, Jonathan P.; Sharot, Tali

    2016-01-01

    Intuitively, how you feel about potential outcomes will determine your decisions. Indeed, an implicit assumption in one of the most influential theories in psychology, prospect theory, is that feelings govern choice. Surprisingly, however, very little is known about the rules by which feelings are transformed into decisions. Here, we specified a computational model that used feelings to predict choices. We found that this model predicted choice better than existing value-based models, showing a unique contribution of feelings to decisions, over and above value. Similar to the value function in prospect theory, our feeling function showed diminished sensitivity to outcomes as value increased. However, loss aversion in choice was explained by an asymmetry in how feelings about losses and gains were weighted when making a decision, not by an asymmetry in the feelings themselves. The results provide new insights into how feelings are utilized to reach a decision. PMID:27071751

  11. Decision making: rational or hedonic?

    PubMed Central

    Cabanac, Michel; Bonniot-Cabanac, Marie-Claude

    2007-01-01

    Three experiments studied the hedonicity of decision making. Participants rated their pleasure/displeasure while reading item-sentences describing political and social problems followed by different decisions (Questionnaire 1). Questionnaire 2 was multiple-choice, grouping the items from Questionnaire 1. In Experiment 1, participants answered Questionnaire 2 rapidly or slowly. Both groups selected what they had rated as pleasant, but the 'leisurely' group maximized pleasure less. In Experiment 2, participants selected the most rational responses. The selected behaviors were pleasant but less than spontaneous behaviors. In Experiment 3, Questionnaire 2 was presented once with items grouped by theme, and once with items shuffled. Participants maximized the pleasure of their decisions, but the items selected on Questionnaires 2 were different when presented in different order. All groups maximized pleasure equally in their decisions. These results support that decisions are made predominantly in the hedonic dimension of consciousness. PMID:17848195

  12. Substituted decision making: elder guardianship.

    PubMed

    Leatherman, Martha E; Goethe, Katherine E

    2009-11-01

    The goal of this column is to help experienced clinicians navigate the judicial system when they are confronted with requests for capacity evaluations that involve guardianship (conservatorship). The interface between the growing elderly medical population and increasing requests for substituted decision making is becoming more complex. This column will help practicing psychiatrists understand the medical, legal, and societal factors involved in adult guardianship. Such understanding is necessary in order to effectively perform guardianship evaluations and adequately inform courts, patients, and families about the psychiatric diagnoses central to substituted decision making.

  13. Toward a Contingency Theory of Decision Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tarter, C. John; Hoy, Wayne K.

    1998-01-01

    There is no single best decision-making approach. This article reviews and compares six contemporary models (classical, administrative, incremental, mixed-scanning, garbage-can, and political) and develops a framework and 10 propositions to match strategies with circumstances. A contingency approach suggests that administrators use satisficing (a…

  14. Making Sustainable Decisions Using the KONVERGENCE Framework

    SciTech Connect

    Piet, Steven James; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Dakins, Maxine Ellen

    2003-02-01

    Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. “Cleanup” includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done - some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches, including: • New ways (mental model) to analyze and visualize the problem, • Awareness of the option to shift strategy or reframe from a single decision to an adaptable network of decisions, and • Improved tactical processes that account for several challenges. These include the following: • Stakeholder values are a more fundamental basis for decision making and keeping than “meeting regulations.” • Late-entry players and future generations will question decisions. • People may resist making “irreversible” decisions. • People need “compelling reasons” to take action in the face of uncertainties. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period—from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept “as is” or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: • Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? • Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? • Resources: what is available to implement

  15. Do humans make good decisions?

    PubMed

    Summerfield, Christopher; Tsetsos, Konstantinos

    2015-01-01

    Human performance on perceptual classification tasks approaches that of an ideal observer, but economic decisions are often inconsistent and intransitive, with preferences reversing according to the local context. We discuss the view that suboptimal choices may result from the efficient coding of decision-relevant information, a strategy that allows expected inputs to be processed with higher gain than unexpected inputs. Efficient coding leads to 'robust' decisions that depart from optimality but maximise the information transmitted by a limited-capacity system in a rapidly-changing world. We review recent work showing that when perceptual environments are variable or volatile, perceptual decisions exhibit the same suboptimal context-dependence as economic choices, and we propose a general computational framework that accounts for findings across the two domains. PMID:25488076

  16. Do humans make good decisions?

    PubMed Central

    Summerfield, Christopher; Tsetsos, Konstantinos

    2014-01-01

    Human performance on perceptual classification tasks approaches that of an ideal observer, but economic decisions are often inconsistent and intransitive, with preferences reversing according to the local context. We discuss the view that suboptimal choices may result from the efficient coding of decision-relevant information, a strategy that allows expected inputs to be processed with higher gain than unexpected inputs. Efficient coding leads to ‘robust’ decisions that depart from optimality but maximise the information transmitted by a limited-capacity system in a rapidly-changing world. We review recent work showing that when perceptual environments are variable or volatile, perceptual decisions exhibit the same suboptimal context-dependence as economic choices, and propose a general computational framework that accounts for findings across the two domains. PMID:25488076

  17. Opportunities and strategies to incorporate ecosystem services knowledge and decision support tools into planning and decision making in Hawai'i.

    PubMed

    Bremer, Leah L; Delevaux, Jade M S; Leary, James J K; J Cox, Linda; Oleson, Kirsten L L

    2015-04-01

    Incorporating ecosystem services into management decisions is a promising means to link conservation and human well-being. Nonetheless, planning and management in Hawai'i, a state with highly valued natural capital, has yet to broadly utilize an ecosystem service approach. We conducted a stakeholder assessment, based on semi-structured interviews, with terrestrial (n = 26) and marine (n = 27) natural resource managers across the State of Hawai'i to understand the current use of ecosystem services (ES) knowledge and decision support tools and whether, how, and under what contexts, further development would potentially be useful. We found that ES knowledge and tools customized to Hawai'i could be useful for communication and outreach, justifying management decisions, and spatial planning. Greater incorporation of this approach is clearly desired and has a strong potential to contribute to more sustainable decision making and planning in Hawai'i and other oceanic island systems. However, the unique biophysical, socio-economic, and cultural context of Hawai'i, and other island systems, will require substantial adaptation of existing ES tools. Based on our findings, we identified four key opportunities for the use of ES knowledge and tools in Hawai'i: (1) linking native forest protection to watershed health; (2) supporting sustainable agriculture; (3) facilitating ridge-to-reef management; and (4) supporting statewide terrestrial and marine spatial planning. Given the interest expressed by natural resource managers, we envision broad adoption of ES knowledge and decision support tools if knowledge and tools are tailored to the Hawaiian context and coupled with adequate outreach and training.

  18. Opportunities and Strategies to Incorporate Ecosystem Services Knowledge and Decision Support Tools into Planning and Decision Making in Hawai`i

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bremer, Leah L.; Delevaux, Jade M. S.; Leary, James J. K.; J. Cox, Linda; Oleson, Kirsten L. L.

    2015-04-01

    Incorporating ecosystem services into management decisions is a promising means to link conservation and human well-being. Nonetheless, planning and management in Hawai`i, a state with highly valued natural capital, has yet to broadly utilize an ecosystem service approach. We conducted a stakeholder assessment, based on semi-structured interviews, with terrestrial ( n = 26) and marine ( n = 27) natural resource managers across the State of Hawai`i to understand the current use of ecosystem services (ES) knowledge and decision support tools and whether, how, and under what contexts, further development would potentially be useful. We found that ES knowledge and tools customized to Hawai`i could be useful for communication and outreach, justifying management decisions, and spatial planning. Greater incorporation of this approach is clearly desired and has a strong potential to contribute to more sustainable decision making and planning in Hawai`i and other oceanic island systems. However, the unique biophysical, socio-economic, and cultural context of Hawai`i, and other island systems, will require substantial adaptation of existing ES tools. Based on our findings, we identified four key opportunities for the use of ES knowledge and tools in Hawai`i: (1) linking native forest protection to watershed health; (2) supporting sustainable agriculture; (3) facilitating ridge-to-reef management; and (4) supporting statewide terrestrial and marine spatial planning. Given the interest expressed by natural resource managers, we envision broad adoption of ES knowledge and decision support tools if knowledge and tools are tailored to the Hawaiian context and coupled with adequate outreach and training.

  19. Teaching Rational Decision-Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woolever, Roberts

    1978-01-01

    Presented is an outline of a college course, "Education in American Society," that focused on teaching students rational decision-making skills while examining current issues in American Education. The outline is followed by student comments, reactions, and evaluations of the course. (JMD)

  20. Enhanced decision making through neuroscience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szu, Harold; Jung, TP; Makeig, Scott

    2012-06-01

    We propose to enhance the decision making of pilot, co-pilot teams, over a range of vehicle platforms, with the aid of neuroscience. The goal is to optimize this collaborative decision making interplay in time-critical, stressful situations. We will research and measure human facial expressions, personality typing, and brainwave measurements to help answer questions related to optimum decision-making in group situations. Further, we propose to examine the nature of intuition in this decision making process. The brainwave measurements will be facilitated by a University of California, San Diego (UCSD) developed wireless Electroencephalography (EEG) sensing cap. We propose to measure brainwaves covering the whole head area with an electrode density of N=256, and yet keep within the limiting wireless bandwidth capability of m=32 readouts. This is possible because solving Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and finding the hidden brainwave sources allow us to concentrate selective measurements with an organized sparse source -->s sensing matrix [Φs], rather than the traditional purely random compressive sensing (CS) matrix[Φ].

  1. BALANCING IN GROUP DECISION MAKING.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    GREGOR, GARY L.; WRENCH, DAVID F.

    THIS STUDY WAS DESIGNED TO TEST THE THEORY THAT LABORATORY GROUPS MAKING COMPLEX DECISIONS WILL DISTORT THEIR PERCEPTIONS OF EACH OTHER IN WAYS PREDICTABLE FROM NEWCOMB'S A-B-X MODEL OF PERCEPTUAL DISTORTION IN WHICH "A" REPRESENTS THE PERCEIVING INDIVIDUAL, "B" REPRESENTS ANOTHER MEMBER OF THE GROUP, AND "X" THE ISSUES UNDER DISCUSSION. FOUR…

  2. Participative Decision Making in Curriculum.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knoop, Robert; O'Reilly, Robert

    This study attempts to render more specific the curriculum decisionmaking models of Goodlad and Myers. Perceived and desired loci and methods of making curriculum decisions in the secondary schools were determined by secondary school personnel in Ontario schools. Results indicated that teachers desired to have their ideas considered rather than to…

  3. The precautionary principle and medical decision making.

    PubMed

    Resnik, David B

    2004-06-01

    The precautionary principle is a useful strategy for decision-making when physicians and patients lack evidence relating to the potential outcomes associated with various choices. According to a version of the principle defended here, one should take reasonable measures to avoid threats that are serious and plausible. The reasonableness of a response to a threat depends on several factors, including benefit vs. harm, realism, proportionality, and consistency. Since a concept of reasonableness plays an essential role in applying the precautionary principle, this principle gives physicians and patients a decision-making strategy that encourages the careful weighing and balancing of different values that one finds in humanistic approaches to clinical reasoning. Properly understood, the principle presents a worthwhile alternative to approaches to clinical reasoning that apply expected utility theory to decision problems. PMID:15512973

  4. Decision Making Processes and Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Hicks Patrick, Julie; Steele, Jenessa C.; Spencer, S. Melinda

    2013-01-01

    The primary aim of this study was to examine the contributions of individual characteristics and strategic processing to the prediction of decision quality. Data were provided by 176 adults, ages 18 to 93 years, who completed computerized decision-making vignettes and a battery of demographic and cognitive measures. We examined the relations among age, domain-specific experience, working memory, and three measures of strategic information search to the prediction of solution quality using a 4-step hierarchical linear regression analysis. Working memory and two measures of strategic processing uniquely contributed to the variance explained. Results are discussed in terms of potential advances to both theory and intervention efforts. PMID:24282638

  5. The Evolutionary Roots of Human Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Santos, Laurie R.; Rosati, Alexandra G.

    2015-01-01

    Humans exhibit a suite of biases when making economic decisions. We review recent research on the origins of human decision making by examining whether similar choice biases are seen in nonhuman primates, our closest phylogenetic relatives. We propose that comparative studies can provide insight into four major questions about the nature of human choice biases that cannot be addressed by studies of our species alone. First, research with other primates can address the evolution of human choice biases and identify shared versus human-unique tendencies in decision making. Second, primate studies can constrain hypotheses about the psychological mechanisms underlying such biases. Third, comparisons of closely related species can identify when distinct mechanisms underlie related biases by examining evolutionary dissociations in choice strategies. Finally, comparative work can provide insight into the biological rationality of economically irrational preferences. PMID:25559115

  6. Toxicology in business decision making.

    PubMed

    Deisler, P F

    1982-12-01

    More than ever before, toxicology and its sister health sciences and technologies are needed as members of the business team to ensure sound business decision making for both new and existing businesses. Yet the marriage of toxicology and business is an uneasy one since toxicology is both the bringer of bad news and a major resource for the solution of problems. Both business and toxicology have much to learn about each other to make the marriage work and to make full use of toxicology's scientific advice in reaching sound decisions on the safe production, distribution, and handling of a company's products. Toxicology also has a central and difficult role in helping business navigate the turbulent waters of regulation or of potential or actual litigation. From his own experience in organizing a corporate health, safety, and environmental department, the author describes the concepts that must be understood and the marshaling of resources needed to ensure that toxicology can play its full role in business decision making.

  7. An ABC for decision making.

    PubMed

    Garcia, Luiz Henrique Costa; Ferreira, Bruna Cortez

    2015-01-01

    The present study was aimed at proposing a systematic evaluation of cranial computed tomography, identifying the main aspects to be analyzed in order to facilitate the decision making process regarding diagnosis and management in emergency settings. The present descriptive study comprised a literature review at the following databases: Access Medicine and Access Emergency Medicine (McGraw- Hill Education); British Medical Journal Evidence Center; UptoDate; Bireme; PubMed; Lilacs; SciELO; ProQuest; Micromedex (Thomson Reuters); Embase. Once the literature review was completed, the authors identified the main diseases with tomographic repercussions and proposed the present system to evaluate cranial computed tomography images. An easy-to-memorize ABC system will facilitate the decision making in emergency settings, as it covers the main diseases encountered by intensivists and emergency physicians, and provides a sequential guidance about anatomical structures to be investigated as well as their respective alterations.

  8. An ABC for decision making*

    PubMed Central

    Garcia, Luiz Henrique Costa; Ferreira, Bruna Cortez

    2015-01-01

    The present study was aimed at proposing a systematic evaluation of cranial computed tomography, identifying the main aspects to be analyzed in order to facilitate the decision making process regarding diagnosis and management in emergency settings. The present descriptive study comprised a literature review at the following databases: Access Medicine and Access Emergency Medicine (McGraw- Hill Education); British Medical Journal Evidence Center; UptoDate; Bireme; PubMed; Lilacs; SciELO; ProQuest; Micromedex (Thomson Reuters); Embase. Once the literature review was completed, the authors identified the main diseases with tomographic repercussions and proposed the present system to evaluate cranial computed tomography images. An easy-to-memorize ABC system will facilitate the decision making in emergency settings, as it covers the main diseases encountered by intensivists and emergency physicians, and provides a sequential guidance about anatomical structures to be investigated as well as their respective alterations. PMID:25987751

  9. Neuroethology of Decision-making

    PubMed Central

    Adams, Geoffrey K.; Watson, Karli K.; Pearson, John; Platt, Michael L.

    2012-01-01

    A neuroethological approach to decision-making considers the effect of evolutionary pressures on neural circuits mediating choice. In this view, decision systems are expected to enhance fitness with respect to the local environment, and particularly efficient solutions to specific problems should be conserved, expanded, and repurposed to solve other problems. Here, we discuss basic prerequisites for a variety of decision systems from this viewpoint. We focus on two of the best-studied and most widely represented decision problems. First, we examine patch leaving, a prototype of environmentally based switching between action patterns. Second, we consider social information seeking, a process resembling foraging with search costs. We argue that while the specific neural solutions to these problems sometimes differ across species, both the problems themselves and the algorithms instantiated by biological hardware are repeated widely throughout nature. The behavioral and mathematical study of ubiquitous decision processes like patch leaving and social information seeking thus provides a powerful new approach to uncovering the fundamental design structure of nervous systems. PMID:22902613

  10. Impaired strategic decision making in schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Kim, Hyojin; Lee, Daeyeol; Shin, Young-Min; Chey, Jeanyung

    2007-11-14

    Adaptive decision making in dynamic social settings requires frequent re-evaluation of choice outcomes and revision of strategies. This requires an array of multiple cognitive abilities, such as working memory and response inhibition. Thus, the disruption of such abilities in schizophrenia can have significant implications for social dysfunctions in affected patients. In the present study, 20 schizophrenia patients and 20 control subjects completed two computerized binary decision-making tasks. In the first task, the participants played a competitive zero-sum game against a computer in which the predictable choice behavior was penalized and the optimal strategy was to choose the two targets stochastically. In the second task, the expected payoffs of the two targets were fixed and unaffected by the subject's choices, so the optimal strategy was to choose the target with the higher expected payoff exclusively. The schizophrenia patients earned significantly less money during the first task, even though their overall choice probabilities were not significantly different from the control subjects. This was mostly because patients were impaired in integrating the outcomes of their previous choices appropriately in order to maintain the optimal strategy. During the second task, the choices of patients and control subjects displayed more similar patterns. This study elucidated the specific components in strategic decision making that are impaired in schizophrenia. The deficit, which can be characterized as strategic stiffness, may have implications for the poor social adjustment in schizophrenia patients. PMID:17905200

  11. Decision making, movement planning and statistical decision theory.

    PubMed

    Trommershäuser, Julia; Maloney, Laurence T; Landy, Michael S

    2008-08-01

    We discuss behavioral studies directed at understanding how probability information is represented in motor and economic tasks. By formulating the behavioral tasks in the language of statistical decision theory, we can compare performance in equivalent tasks in different domains. Subjects in traditional economic decision-making tasks often misrepresent the probability of rare events and typically fail to maximize expected gain. By contrast, subjects in mathematically equivalent movement tasks often choose movement strategies that come close to maximizing expected gain. We discuss the implications of these different outcomes, noting the evident differences between the source of uncertainty and how information about uncertainty is acquired in motor and economic tasks.

  12. Graphic Representations as Tools for Decision Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Howard, Judith

    2001-01-01

    Focuses on the use of graphic representations to enable students to improve their decision making skills in the social studies. Explores three visual aids used in assisting students with decision making: (1) the force field; (2) the decision tree; and (3) the decision making grid. (CMK)

  13. Decision Making in Adults with ADHD

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Montyla, Timo; Still, Johanna; Gullberg, Stina; Del Missier, Fabio

    2012-01-01

    Objectives: This study examined decision-making competence in ADHD by using multiple decision tasks with varying demands on analytic versus affective processes. Methods: Adults with ADHD and healthy controls completed two tasks of analytic decision making, as measured by the Adult Decision-Making Competence (A-DMC) battery, and two affective…

  14. A system of system lenses for leadership decision-making.

    PubMed

    Cady, Phil

    2016-01-01

    The sheer volume and dynamics among system agents in healthcare makes decision-making a daunting task at all levels. Being clear about what leaders mean by "healthcare system" is critical in aligning system strategy and leadership decision-making. This article presents an emerging set of lenses (ideology and beliefs, rational and irrational information processing, interpersonal social dynamics, process and value creation, and context) to help frame leadership decision-making in healthcare systems.

  15. Decision sidestepping: How the motivation for closure prompts individuals to bypass decision making.

    PubMed

    Otto, Ashley S; Clarkson, Joshua J; Kardes, Frank R

    2016-07-01

    We all too often have to make decisions-from the mundane (e.g., what to eat for breakfast) to the complex (e.g., what to buy a loved one)-and yet there exists a multitude of strategies that allows us to make a decision. This work focuses on a subset of decision strategies that allows individuals to make decisions by bypassing the decision-making process-a phenomenon we term decision sidestepping. Critical to the present manuscript, however, we contend that decision sidestepping stems from the motivation to achieve closure. We link this proposition back to the fundamental nature of closure and how those seeking closure are highly bothered by decision making. As such, we argue that the motivation to achieve closure prompts a reliance on sidestepping strategies (e.g., default bias, choice delegation, status quo bias, inaction inertia, option fixation) to reduce the bothersome nature of decision making. In support of this framework, five experiments demonstrate that (a) those seeking closure are more likely to engage in decision sidestepping, (b) the effect of closure on sidestepping stems from the bothersome nature of decision making, and (c) the reliance on sidestepping results in downstream consequences for subsequent choice. Taken together, these findings offer unique insight into the cognitive motivations stimulating a reliance on decision sidestepping and thus a novel framework by which to understand how individuals make decisions while bypassing the decision-making process. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:27337138

  16. Strategic Decision Making and Group Decision Support Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McGrath, Michael Robert

    1986-01-01

    Institutional strategic decisions require the participation of every individual with a significant stake in the solution, and group decision support systems are being developed to respond to the political and consensual problems of collective decision-making. (MSE)

  17. Simulation of human decision making

    DOEpatents

    Forsythe, J. Chris; Speed, Ann E.; Jordan, Sabina E.; Xavier, Patrick G.

    2008-05-06

    A method for computer emulation of human decision making defines a plurality of concepts related to a domain and a plurality of situations related to the domain, where each situation is a combination of at least two of the concepts. Each concept and situation is represented in the computer as an oscillator output, and each situation and concept oscillator output is distinguishable from all other oscillator outputs. Information is input to the computer representative of detected concepts, and the computer compares the detected concepts with the stored situations to determine if a situation has occurred.

  18. Reverse mortgage decision-making.

    PubMed

    Leviton, R

    2001-01-01

    Reverse mortgages have been suggested as a promising financial tool to help low-income older homeowners who want to remain in their houses. However, actual use of this option has been much below early estimates of potential demand. This study explored response to the new option through open-ended interviews of homeowners who had received reverse mortgage counseling. Decision-making was influenced by attachment to home, family input, and financial attitudes, including desire to leave a legacy. In general, homeowners took reverse mortgages only as a "last resort" that enabled them to maintain their independence.

  19. Decision-making and response strategies in interaction with alarms: the impact of alarm reliability, availability of alarm validity information and workload.

    PubMed

    Manzey, Dietrich; Gérard, Nina; Wiczorek, Rebecca

    2014-01-01

    Responding to alarm systems which usually commit a number of false alarms and/or misses involves decision-making under uncertainty. Four laboratory experiments including a total of 256 participants were conducted to gain comprehensive insight into humans' dealing with this uncertainty. Specifically, it was investigated how responses to alarms/non-alarms are affected by the predictive validities of these events, and to what extent response strategies depend on whether or not the validity of alarms/non-alarms can be cross-checked against other data. Among others, the results suggest that, without cross-check possibility (experiment 1), low levels of predictive validity of alarms ( ≤ 0.5) led most participants to use one of two different strategies which both involved non-responding to a significant number of alarms (cry-wolf effect). Yet, providing access to alarm validity information reduced this effect dramatically (experiment 2). This latter result emerged independent of the effort needed for cross-checkings of alarms (experiment 3), but was affected by the workload imposed by concurrent tasks (experiment 4). Theoretical and practical consequences of these results for decision-making and response selection in interaction with alarm systems, as well as the design of effective alarm systems, are discussed.

  20. Decision-Making Procedure and Decision Quality.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burleson, Brant R.; And Others

    1984-01-01

    Strongly confirmed the hypothesis that groups employing an interacting decision procedure would produce better decisions than groups employing procedures that are either nominal (Delphi) or "staticized" (individual judgments statistically pooled). Provides clear and consistent support for the value of social interaction in small group decision…

  1. Decision Technology Systems: A Vehicle to Consolidate Decision Making Support.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Forgionne, Guisseppi A.

    1991-01-01

    Discussion of management decision making and the support needed to manage successfully highlights a Decision Technology System (DTS) that integrates other information systems. Topics discussed include computer information systems (CISs); knowledge gateways; the decision-making process; decision support systems (DSS); expert systems; and facility…

  2. Effect of regulating anger and sadness on decision-making.

    PubMed

    Szasz, Paul Lucian; Hofmann, Stefan G; Heilman, Renata M; Curtiss, Joshua

    2016-11-01

    The aim of the current study was to investigate the effects of reappraisal, acceptance, and rumination for regulating anger and sadness on decision-making. Participants (N = 165) were asked to recall two autobiographical events in which they felt intense anger and sadness, respectively. Participants were then instructed to reappraise, accept, ruminate, or not use any strategies to regulate their feelings of anger and sadness. Following this manipulation, risk aversion, and decision-making strategies were measured using a computer-based measure of risk-taking and a simulated real-life decision-making task. Participants who were instructed to reappraise their emotions showed the least anger and sadness, the most adaptive decision-making strategies, but the least risk aversion as compared to the participants in the other conditions. These findings suggest that emotion regulation strategies of negative affective states have an immediate effect on decision-making and risk-taking behaviors. PMID:27438753

  3. Effect of regulating anger and sadness on decision-making.

    PubMed

    Szasz, Paul Lucian; Hofmann, Stefan G; Heilman, Renata M; Curtiss, Joshua

    2016-11-01

    The aim of the current study was to investigate the effects of reappraisal, acceptance, and rumination for regulating anger and sadness on decision-making. Participants (N = 165) were asked to recall two autobiographical events in which they felt intense anger and sadness, respectively. Participants were then instructed to reappraise, accept, ruminate, or not use any strategies to regulate their feelings of anger and sadness. Following this manipulation, risk aversion, and decision-making strategies were measured using a computer-based measure of risk-taking and a simulated real-life decision-making task. Participants who were instructed to reappraise their emotions showed the least anger and sadness, the most adaptive decision-making strategies, but the least risk aversion as compared to the participants in the other conditions. These findings suggest that emotion regulation strategies of negative affective states have an immediate effect on decision-making and risk-taking behaviors.

  4. [Decision making in cannabis users].

    PubMed

    Alameda Bailén, Jose Ramón; Paíno Quesada, Susana; Mogedas Valladares, Ana Isabel

    2012-01-01

    Several neuropsychological studies have shown that chronic cannabis users have cognitive impairments, including decision-making process. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the process, through the somatic marker hypothesis in a sample of 41 cannabis users compared with a control group of equal size, and to analyze the influence of age, sex, education level, age of onset and amount of daily consumption. In order to do that, the software "Cartas" (similar to the Iowa Gambling Task), was used, implementing its two versions: normal and reverse. The results show significant differences between cannabis users and control group in the normal and reverse task execution. By block analysis, the control group obtained higher scores in the normal task execution, however, in the reverse task, the differences between groups are present in the initial task execution but not final task execution. None of the analyzed variables (age, sex ...) are significantly related to task performance. These results suggest the existence of alterations in the decision making process of consumers cannabis, which may relate to the difficulty in generating somatic markers, and not for insensitivity punishments insensitivity.

  5. Errors in Aviation Decision Making: Bad Decisions or Bad Luck?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orasanu, Judith; Martin, Lynne; Davison, Jeannie; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

    1998-01-01

    Despite efforts to design systems and procedures to support 'correct' and safe operations in aviation, errors in human judgment still occur and contribute to accidents. In this paper we examine how an NDM (naturalistic decision making) approach might help us to understand the role of decision processes in negative outcomes. Our strategy was to examine a collection of identified decision errors through the lens of an aviation decision process model and to search for common patterns. The second, and more difficult, task was to determine what might account for those patterns. The corpus we analyzed consisted of tactical decision errors identified by the NTSB (National Transportation Safety Board) from a set of accidents in which crew behavior contributed to the accident. A common pattern emerged: about three quarters of the errors represented plan-continuation errors, that is, a decision to continue with the original plan despite cues that suggested changing the course of action. Features in the context that might contribute to these errors were identified: (a) ambiguous dynamic conditions and (b) organizational and socially-induced goal conflicts. We hypothesize that 'errors' are mediated by underestimation of risk and failure to analyze the potential consequences of continuing with the initial plan. Stressors may further contribute to these effects. Suggestions for improving performance in these error-inducing contexts are discussed.

  6. Toward a Psychology of Surrogate Decision Making.

    PubMed

    Tunney, Richard J; Ziegler, Fenja V

    2015-11-01

    In everyday life, many of the decisions that we make are made on behalf of other people. A growing body of research suggests that we often, but not always, make different decisions on behalf of other people than the other person would choose. This is problematic in the practical case of legally designated surrogate decision makers, who may not meet the substituted judgment standard. Here, we review evidence from studies of surrogate decision making and examine the extent to which surrogate decision making accurately predicts the recipient's wishes, or if it is an incomplete or distorted application of the surrogate's own decision-making processes. We find no existing domain-general model of surrogate decision making. We propose a framework by which surrogate decision making can be assessed and a novel domain-general theory as a unifying explanatory concept for surrogate decisions.

  7. Improving health information systems for decision making across five sub-Saharan African countries: Implementation strategies from the African Health Initiative

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Weak health information systems (HIS) are a critical challenge to reaching the health-related Millennium Development Goals because health systems performance cannot be adequately assessed or monitored where HIS data are incomplete, inaccurate, or untimely. The Population Health Implementation and Training (PHIT) Partnerships were established in five sub-Saharan African countries (Ghana, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Zambia) to catalyze advances in strengthening district health systems. Interventions were tailored to the setting in which activities were planned. Comparisons across strategies All five PHIT Partnerships share a common feature in their goal of enhancing HIS and linking data with improved decision-making, specific strategies varied. Mozambique, Ghana, and Tanzania all focus on improving the quality and use of the existing Ministry of Health HIS, while the Zambia and Rwanda partnerships have introduced new information and communication technology systems or tools. All partnerships have adopted a flexible, iterative approach in designing and refining the development of new tools and approaches for HIS enhancement (such as routine data quality audits and automated troubleshooting), as well as improving decision making through timely feedback on health system performance (such as through summary data dashboards or routine data review meetings). The most striking differences between partnership approaches can be found in the level of emphasis of data collection (patient versus health facility), and consequently the level of decision making enhancement (community, facility, district, or provincial leadership). Discussion Design differences across PHIT Partnerships reflect differing theories of change, particularly regarding what information is needed, who will use the information to affect change, and how this change is expected to manifest. The iterative process of data use to monitor and assess the health system has been heavily communication

  8. Decision making in family medicine

    PubMed Central

    Labrecque, Michel; Ratté, Stéphane; Frémont, Pierre; Cauchon, Michel; Ouellet, Jérôme; Hogg, William; McGowan, Jessie; Gagnon, Marie-Pierre; Njoya, Merlin; Légaré, France

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Objective To compare the ability of users of 2 medical search engines, InfoClinique and the Trip database, to provide correct answers to clinical questions and to explore the perceived effects of the tools on the clinical decision-making process. Design Randomized trial. Setting Three family medicine units of the family medicine program of the Faculty of Medicine at Laval University in Quebec city, Que. Participants Fifteen second-year family medicine residents. Intervention Residents generated 30 structured questions about therapy or preventive treatment (2 questions per resident) based on clinical encounters. Using an Internet platform designed for the trial, each resident answered 20 of these questions (their own 2, plus 18 of the questions formulated by other residents, selected randomly) before and after searching for information with 1 of the 2 search engines. For each question, 5 residents were randomly assigned to begin their search with InfoClinique and 5 with the Trip database. Main outcome measures The ability of residents to provide correct answers to clinical questions using the search engines, as determined by third-party evaluation. After answering each question, participants completed a questionnaire to assess their perception of the engine’s effect on the decision-making process in clinical practice. Results Of 300 possible pairs of answers (1 answer before and 1 after the initial search), 254 (85%) were produced by 14 residents. Of these, 132 (52%) and 122 (48%) pairs of answers concerned questions that had been assigned an initial search with InfoClinique and the Trip database, respectively. Both engines produced an important and similar absolute increase in the proportion of correct answers after searching (26% to 62% for InfoClinique, for an increase of 36%; 24% to 63% for the Trip database, for an increase of 39%; P = .68). For all 30 clinical questions, at least 1 resident produced the correct answer after searching with either

  9. Game theory and neural basis of social decision making

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Daeyeol

    2008-01-01

    Decision making in a social group displays two unique features. First, humans and other animals routinely alter their behaviors in response to changes in their physical and social environment. As a result, the outcomes of decisions that depend on the behaviors of multiple decision makers are difficult to predict, and this requires highly adaptive decision-making strategies. Second, decision makers may have other-regarding preferences and therefore choose their actions to improve or reduce the well-beings of others. Recently, many neurobiological studies have exploited game theory to probe the neural basis of decision making, and found that these unique features of social decision making might be reflected in the functions of brain areas involved in reward evaluation and reinforcement learning. Molecular genetic studies have also begun to identify genetic mechanisms for personal traits related to reinforcement learning and complex social decision making, further illuminating the biological basis of social behavior. PMID:18368047

  10. Game theory and neural basis of social decision making.

    PubMed

    Lee, Daeyeol

    2008-04-01

    Decision making in a social group has two distinguishing features. First, humans and other animals routinely alter their behavior in response to changes in their physical and social environment. As a result, the outcomes of decisions that depend on the behavior of multiple decision makers are difficult to predict and require highly adaptive decision-making strategies. Second, decision makers may have preferences regarding consequences to other individuals and therefore choose their actions to improve or reduce the well-being of others. Many neurobiological studies have exploited game theory to probe the neural basis of decision making and suggested that these features of social decision making might be reflected in the functions of brain areas involved in reward evaluation and reinforcement learning. Molecular genetic studies have also begun to identify genetic mechanisms for personal traits related to reinforcement learning and complex social decision making, further illuminating the biological basis of social behavior.

  11. Ethics of everyday decision making.

    PubMed

    Kearney, Gina; Penque, Sue

    2012-04-01

    Evidence suggests that checklists can prevent episodes of patient harm and they are increasingly being used in patient care to ensure that procedures are being carried out. However, checklists cannot do so alone and in some situations the checklist might indicate that an intervention has been undertaken when it has not. Healthcare providers, particularly nurses, must consider not only the increase in the use of checklists, but also the way in which they present a context for ethical decision making. This article examines the ethical dimensions of using checklists, played out in the context of a scenario, and suggests that failure to take ethics into account when considering checklists might perpetuate rather than prevent unsafe practices or errors. The article is set in a US context, but the issues are relevant to healthcare settings in any part of the world.

  12. Facets of Career Decision-Making Difficulties

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Amir, Tami; Gati, Itamar

    2006-01-01

    The present research investigated the relations among the measured and the expressed career decision-making difficulties in a sample of 299 young adults who intended to apply to college or university. As hypothesised, the correlations between career decision-making difficulties, as measured by the Career Decision-Making Difficulties Questionnaire…

  13. Impaired Decision Making in Adolescent Suicide Attempters

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bridge, Jeffrey A.; McBee-Strayer, Sandra M.; Cannon, Elizabeth A.; Sheftall, Arielle H.; Reynolds, Brady; Campo, John V.; Pajer, Kathleen A.; Barbe, Remy P.; Brent, David A.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Decision-making deficits have been linked to suicidal behavior in adults. However, it remains unclear whether impaired decision making plays a role in the etiopathogenesis of youth suicidal behavior. The purpose of this study was to examine decision-making processes in adolescent suicide attempters and never-suicidal comparison…

  14. Training in Decision-Making Strategies: An Approach to Enhance Students' Competence to Deal with Socio-Scientific Issues

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gresch, Helge; Hasselhorn, Marcus; Bögeholz, Susanne

    2013-01-01

    Dealing with socio-scientific issues in science classes enables students to participate productively in controversial discussions concerning ethical topics, such as sustainable development. In this respect, well-structured decision-making processes are essential for elaborate reasoning. To foster decision-making competence, a computer-based…

  15. Has Lean improved organizational decision making?

    PubMed

    Simons, Pascale; Benders, Jos; Bergs, Jochen; Marneffe, Wim; Vandijck, Dominique

    2016-06-13

    Purpose - Sustainable improvement is likely to be hampered by ambiguous objectives and uncertain cause-effect relations in care processes (the organization's decision-making context). Lean management can improve implementation results because it decreases ambiguity and uncertainties. But does it succeed? Many quality improvement (QI) initiatives are appropriate improvement strategies in organizational contexts characterized by low ambiguity and uncertainty. However, most care settings do not fit this context. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether a Lean-inspired change program changed the organization's decision-making context, making it more amenable for QI initiatives. Design/methodology/approach - In 2014, 12 professionals from a Dutch radiotherapy institute were interviewed regarding their perceptions of a Lean program in their organization and the perceived ambiguous objectives and uncertain cause-effect relations in their clinical processes. A survey (25 questions), addressing the same concepts, was conducted among the interviewees in 2011 and 2014. The structured interviews were analyzed using a deductive approach. Quantitative data were analyzed using appropriate statistics. Findings - Interviewees experienced improved shared visions and the number of uncertain cause-effect relations decreased. Overall, more positive (99) than negative Lean effects (18) were expressed. The surveys revealed enhanced process predictability and standardization, and improved shared visions. Practical implications - Lean implementation has shown to lead to greater transparency and increased shared visions. Originality/value - Lean management decreased ambiguous objectives and reduced uncertainties in clinical process cause-effect relations. Therefore, decision making benefitted from Lean increasing QI's sustainability. PMID:27256776

  16. Has Lean improved organizational decision making?

    PubMed

    Simons, Pascale; Benders, Jos; Bergs, Jochen; Marneffe, Wim; Vandijck, Dominique

    2016-06-13

    Purpose - Sustainable improvement is likely to be hampered by ambiguous objectives and uncertain cause-effect relations in care processes (the organization's decision-making context). Lean management can improve implementation results because it decreases ambiguity and uncertainties. But does it succeed? Many quality improvement (QI) initiatives are appropriate improvement strategies in organizational contexts characterized by low ambiguity and uncertainty. However, most care settings do not fit this context. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether a Lean-inspired change program changed the organization's decision-making context, making it more amenable for QI initiatives. Design/methodology/approach - In 2014, 12 professionals from a Dutch radiotherapy institute were interviewed regarding their perceptions of a Lean program in their organization and the perceived ambiguous objectives and uncertain cause-effect relations in their clinical processes. A survey (25 questions), addressing the same concepts, was conducted among the interviewees in 2011 and 2014. The structured interviews were analyzed using a deductive approach. Quantitative data were analyzed using appropriate statistics. Findings - Interviewees experienced improved shared visions and the number of uncertain cause-effect relations decreased. Overall, more positive (99) than negative Lean effects (18) were expressed. The surveys revealed enhanced process predictability and standardization, and improved shared visions. Practical implications - Lean implementation has shown to lead to greater transparency and increased shared visions. Originality/value - Lean management decreased ambiguous objectives and reduced uncertainties in clinical process cause-effect relations. Therefore, decision making benefitted from Lean increasing QI's sustainability.

  17. A cognitive prosthesis for complex decision-making.

    PubMed

    Tremblay, Sébastien; Gagnon, Jean-François; Lafond, Daniel; Hodgetts, Helen M; Doiron, Maxime; Jeuniaux, Patrick P J M H

    2017-01-01

    While simple heuristics can be ecologically rational and effective in naturalistic decision making contexts, complex situations require analytical decision making strategies, hypothesis-testing and learning. Sub-optimal decision strategies - using simplified as opposed to analytic decision rules - have been reported in domains such as healthcare, military operational planning, and government policy making. We investigate the potential of a computational toolkit called "IMAGE" to improve decision-making by developing structural knowledge and increasing understanding of complex situations. IMAGE is tested within the context of a complex military convoy management task through (a) interactive simulations, and (b) visualization and knowledge representation capabilities. We assess the usefulness of two versions of IMAGE (desktop and immersive) compared to a baseline. Results suggest that the prosthesis helped analysts in making better decisions, but failed to increase their structural knowledge about the situation once the cognitive prosthesis is removed.

  18. A cognitive prosthesis for complex decision-making.

    PubMed

    Tremblay, Sébastien; Gagnon, Jean-François; Lafond, Daniel; Hodgetts, Helen M; Doiron, Maxime; Jeuniaux, Patrick P J M H

    2017-01-01

    While simple heuristics can be ecologically rational and effective in naturalistic decision making contexts, complex situations require analytical decision making strategies, hypothesis-testing and learning. Sub-optimal decision strategies - using simplified as opposed to analytic decision rules - have been reported in domains such as healthcare, military operational planning, and government policy making. We investigate the potential of a computational toolkit called "IMAGE" to improve decision-making by developing structural knowledge and increasing understanding of complex situations. IMAGE is tested within the context of a complex military convoy management task through (a) interactive simulations, and (b) visualization and knowledge representation capabilities. We assess the usefulness of two versions of IMAGE (desktop and immersive) compared to a baseline. Results suggest that the prosthesis helped analysts in making better decisions, but failed to increase their structural knowledge about the situation once the cognitive prosthesis is removed. PMID:27633232

  19. Cellular and molecular basis of decision-making

    PubMed Central

    Yapici, Nilay; Zimmer, Manuel; Domingos, Ana I

    2014-01-01

    People think they are in control of their own decisions: what to eat or drink, whom to marry or pick a fight with, where to live, what to buy. Behavioural economists and neurophysiologists have long studied decision-making behaviours. However, these behaviours have only recently been studied through the light of molecular genetics. Here, we review recent research in mice, Drosophila melanogaster and Caenorhabditis elegans, that analyses the molecular and cellular mechanisms underlying decision-making. These studies interrogate decision-making about food, sexual behaviour, aggression or foraging strategies, and add molecular and cell biology understanding onto the consilience of brain and decision. PMID:25239948

  20. The Power of Positive Uncertainty: Making Creative Career Decisions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gelatt, H. B.; Gelatt, Carol

    This paper discusses the "Positive Uncertainty" career decision making strategy, which came into being in 1989. The author suggests that Positive Uncertainty is relevant for individuals struggling to make decisions about their careers, relationships, retirement, life, and more. It is also relevant for career coaches, executive coaches, management…

  1. Stochastic dominance and medical decision making.

    PubMed

    Leshno, Moshe; Levy, Haim

    2004-08-01

    Stochastic Dominance (SD) criteria are decision making tools which allow us to choose among various strategies with only partial information on the decision makers' preferences. The notion of Stochastic Dominance has been extensively employed and developed in the area of economics, finance, agriculture, statistics, marketing and operation research since the late 1960s. For example, it may tell us which of two medical treatments with uncertain outcomes is preferred in the absence of full information on the patients' preferences. This paper presents a short review of the SD paradigm and demonstrates how the SD criteria may be employed in medical decision making, using the case of small abdominal aortic aneurysms as an illustration. Thus, for instance by assuming risk aversion one can employ second-degree stochastic dominance to divide the set of all possible treatments into the efficient set, from which the decision makers should always choose, and the inefficient (inferior) set. By employing Prospect Stochastic Dominance (PSD) a similar division can be conducted corresponding to all S-shaped utility functions.

  2. Stochastic dominance and medical decision making.

    PubMed

    Leshno, Moshe; Levy, Haim

    2004-08-01

    Stochastic Dominance (SD) criteria are decision making tools which allow us to choose among various strategies with only partial information on the decision makers' preferences. The notion of Stochastic Dominance has been extensively employed and developed in the area of economics, finance, agriculture, statistics, marketing and operation research since the late 1960s. For example, it may tell us which of two medical treatments with uncertain outcomes is preferred in the absence of full information on the patients' preferences. This paper presents a short review of the SD paradigm and demonstrates how the SD criteria may be employed in medical decision making, using the case of small abdominal aortic aneurysms as an illustration. Thus, for instance by assuming risk aversion one can employ second-degree stochastic dominance to divide the set of all possible treatments into the efficient set, from which the decision makers should always choose, and the inefficient (inferior) set. By employing Prospect Stochastic Dominance (PSD) a similar division can be conducted corresponding to all S-shaped utility functions. PMID:15648563

  3. The Self in Decision Making and Decision Implementation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beach, Lee Roy; Mitchell, Terence R.

    Since the early 1950's the principal prescriptive model in the psychological study of decision making has been maximization of Subjective Expected Utility (SEU). This SEU maximization has come to be regarded as a description of how people go about making decisions. However, while observed decision processes sometimes resemble the SEU model,…

  4. Changing Times, Complex Decisions: Presidential Values and Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hornak, Anne M.; Garza Mitchell, Regina L.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: The objective of this article is to delve more deeply into the thought processes of the key decision makers at community colleges and understand how they make decisions. Specifically, this article focuses on the role of the community college president's personal values in decision making. Method: We conducted interviews with 13…

  5. Making decisions with a continuous mind.

    PubMed

    Scherbaum, S; Dshemuchadse, M; Kalis, A

    2008-12-01

    Neuroeconomics is a rapidly expanding field at the interfaces of the human sciences. The interdisciplinary nature of this field results in several challenges when attempts are made to solve puzzling questions in human decision making, such as why and how people discount future gains. We argue that an empirical approach based on dynamic systems theory (DST) could inspire and advance the neuroeconomic investigation of decision-making processes in three ways: by enriching the mental model, by extending the empirical tool set, and by facilitating interdisciplinary exchange. The present article addresses the challenges neuroeconomics faces by focusing on intertemporal choice. After a brief introduction of DST and related research, a DST-based conceptual model of decision making is developed and linked to underlying neural principles. On this basis, we outline the application of DST-informed empirical strategies to intertemporal choice. Finally, we discuss the general consequences of and possible objections to the proposed approach to research in intertemporal choice and the field of neuroeconomics.

  6. Disease transmission models for public health decision making: toward an approach for designing intervention strategies for Schistosomiasis japonica.

    PubMed Central

    Spear, Robert C; Hubbard, Alan; Liang, Song; Seto, Edmund

    2002-01-01

    Mathematical models of disease transmission processes can serve as platforms for integration of diverse data, including site-specific information, for the purpose of designing strategies for minimizing transmission. A model describing the transmission of schistosomiasis is adapted to incorporate field data typically developed in disease control efforts in the mountainous regions of Sichuan Province in China, with the object of exploring the feasibility of model-based control strategies. The model is studied using computer simulation methods. Mechanistically based models of this sort typically have a large number of parameters that pose challenges in reducing parametric uncertainty to levels that will produce predictions sufficiently precise to discriminate among competing control options. We describe here an approach to parameter estimation that uses a recently developed statistical procedure called Bayesian melding to sequentially reduce parametric uncertainty as field data are accumulated over several seasons. Preliminary results of applying the approach to a historical data set in southwestern Sichuan are promising. Moreover, technologic advances using the global positioning system, remote sensing, and geographic information systems promise cost-effective improvements in the nature and quality of field data. This, in turn, suggests that the utility of the modeling approach will increase over time. PMID:12204826

  7. Decision making in midwifery: rationality and intuition.

    PubMed

    Steinhauer, Suyai

    2015-04-01

    Decision making in midwifery is a complex process that shapes and underpins clinical practice and determines, to a large extent, the quality of care. Effective decision making and professional accountability are central to clinical governance, and being able.to justify all decisions is a professional and legal requirement. At the same time, there is an emphasis in midwifery on shared decision making, and keeping women at the centre of their care, and research reveals that feelings of choice, control and autonomy are central to a positive birth experience. However the extent to which decisions are really shared and care truly woman-centred is debatable and affected by environment and culture. Using a case study of a decision made in clinical practice around amniotomy, this article explores the role of the intuitive thinking system in midwifery decision making, and highlights the importance of involving women in the decision making process.

  8. Decision-Making Theories and Career Assessment: A Psychometric Evaluation of the Decision Making Inventory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hardin, Erin E.; Leong, Frederick T. L.

    2004-01-01

    To address criticisms that the empirical literature on assessment of career decision making has tended to lack a theoretical base, the present study explored the relevance of a general theory of decision making to career decision making by assessing the psychometric properties of the Decision Making Inventory (DMI), designed to measure Johnson's…

  9. Sex and Career Decision-Making Styles.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lunneborg, Patricia W.

    1978-01-01

    Tested the hypothesis of greater reliance on the intuitive style by females and on the planning style by males in making career decisions. There were no sex differences in these high school and college samples for stage or style of decision making, vocational self-concept crystallization, or self-rated vocational decisiveness. (Author/BEF)

  10. Better clinical decision making and reducing diagnostic error.

    PubMed

    Croskerry, P; Nimmo, G R

    2011-06-01

    A major amount of our time working in clinical practice involves thinking and decision making. Perhaps it is because decision making is such a commonplace activity that it is assumed we can all make effective decisions. However, this is not the case and the example of diagnostic error supports this assertion. Until quite recently there has been a general nihilism about the ability to change the way that we think, but it is now becoming accepted that if we can think about, and understand, our thinking processes we can improve our decision making, including diagnosis. In this paper we review the dual process model of decision making and highlight ways in which decision making can be improved through the application of this model to our day-to-day practice and by the adoption of de-biasing strategies and critical thinking. PMID:21677922

  11. Assessing Decision-Making Capacity in Patients with Communication Impairments.

    PubMed

    Cairncross, Molly; Peterson, Andrew; Lazosky, Andrea; Gofton, Teneille; Weijer, Charles

    2016-10-01

    The ethical principle of autonomy requires physicians to respect patient autonomy when present, and to protect the patient who lacks autonomy. Fulfilling this ethical obligation when a patient has a communication impairment presents considerable challenges. Standard methods for evaluating decision-making capacity require a semistructured interview. Some patients with communication impairments are unable to engage in a semistructured interview and are at risk of the wrongful loss of autonomy. In this article, we present a general strategy for assessing decision-making capacity in patients with communication impairments. We derive this strategy by reflecting on a particular case. The strategy involves three steps: (1) determining the reliability of communication, (2) widening the bandwidth of communication, and (3) using compensatory measures of decision-making capacity. We argue that this strategy may be useful for assessing decision-making capacity and preserving autonomy in some patients with communication impairments.

  12. Assessing Decision-Making Capacity in Patients with Communication Impairments.

    PubMed

    Cairncross, Molly; Peterson, Andrew; Lazosky, Andrea; Gofton, Teneille; Weijer, Charles

    2016-10-01

    The ethical principle of autonomy requires physicians to respect patient autonomy when present, and to protect the patient who lacks autonomy. Fulfilling this ethical obligation when a patient has a communication impairment presents considerable challenges. Standard methods for evaluating decision-making capacity require a semistructured interview. Some patients with communication impairments are unable to engage in a semistructured interview and are at risk of the wrongful loss of autonomy. In this article, we present a general strategy for assessing decision-making capacity in patients with communication impairments. We derive this strategy by reflecting on a particular case. The strategy involves three steps: (1) determining the reliability of communication, (2) widening the bandwidth of communication, and (3) using compensatory measures of decision-making capacity. We argue that this strategy may be useful for assessing decision-making capacity and preserving autonomy in some patients with communication impairments. PMID:27634720

  13. Embodied Choice: How Action Influences Perceptual Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Lepora, Nathan F.; Pezzulo, Giovanni

    2015-01-01

    Embodied Choice considers action performance as a proper part of the decision making process rather than merely as a means to report the decision. The central statement of embodied choice is the existence of bidirectional influences between action and decisions. This implies that for a decision expressed by an action, the action dynamics and its constraints (e.g. current trajectory and kinematics) influence the decision making process. Here we use a perceptual decision making task to compare three types of model: a serial decision-then-action model, a parallel decision-and-action model, and an embodied choice model where the action feeds back into the decision making. The embodied model incorporates two key mechanisms that together are lacking in the other models: action preparation and commitment. First, action preparation strategies alleviate delays in enacting a choice but also modify decision termination. Second, action dynamics change the prospects and create a commitment effect to the initially preferred choice. Our results show that these two mechanisms make embodied choice models better suited to combine decision and action appropriately to achieve suitably fast and accurate responses, as usually required in ecologically valid situations. Moreover, embodied choice models with these mechanisms give a better account of trajectory tracking experiments during decision making. In conclusion, the embodied choice framework offers a combined theory of decision and action that gives a clear case that embodied phenomena such as the dynamics of actions can have a causal influence on central cognition. PMID:25849349

  14. Embodied choice: how action influences perceptual decision making.

    PubMed

    Lepora, Nathan F; Pezzulo, Giovanni

    2015-04-01

    Embodied Choice considers action performance as a proper part of the decision making process rather than merely as a means to report the decision. The central statement of embodied choice is the existence of bidirectional influences between action and decisions. This implies that for a decision expressed by an action, the action dynamics and its constraints (e.g. current trajectory and kinematics) influence the decision making process. Here we use a perceptual decision making task to compare three types of model: a serial decision-then-action model, a parallel decision-and-action model, and an embodied choice model where the action feeds back into the decision making. The embodied model incorporates two key mechanisms that together are lacking in the other models: action preparation and commitment. First, action preparation strategies alleviate delays in enacting a choice but also modify decision termination. Second, action dynamics change the prospects and create a commitment effect to the initially preferred choice. Our results show that these two mechanisms make embodied choice models better suited to combine decision and action appropriately to achieve suitably fast and accurate responses, as usually required in ecologically valid situations. Moreover, embodied choice models with these mechanisms give a better account of trajectory tracking experiments during decision making. In conclusion, the embodied choice framework offers a combined theory of decision and action that gives a clear case that embodied phenomena such as the dynamics of actions can have a causal influence on central cognition.

  15. Quality decision making in dialysis.

    PubMed

    Nilsson, L G; Anderberg, C; Ipsen, R; Persson, E; Andersson, G

    1998-01-01

    A patient approaching the final stage of his renal disease is faced with many difficult questions. Should he opt for a transplant or start on dialysis? In the case of dialysis, can he manage his treatment at home or will he need to be cared for in a clinic? Should be choose peritoneal dialysis or haemodialysis? Is the freedom of being independent from a machine, given by CAPD, as valuable as the freedom of having days without treatment, given by HD? The issues are complex and do not have a given answer. To make the proper decisions about his treatment the patient needs extensive information and support from the caregivers. Likewise, the caregivers need to know the patient well in order to give appropriate advice. In this exchange of information, the renal nurse has a very important role. Some patients may need to be dialysed in a hospital but most can get an equally good or even better dialysis treatment in a less stressful environment. A high degree of self-care is preferred by people who value independence and freedom of movement. Self-care also improves the self-confidence and increases the chances of maintaining employment and a rich social life. Self-care could mean both PD and HD, sometimes with the assistance of a spouse or a nurse. But a certain degree of self-care can also be maintained in limited-care centres and satellites, where the presence of nursing staff gives the feeling of security. For everybody involved, not least the purchasers of health care, it is desirable to keep the patients out of the costly hospital environment for as long as possible. PMID:10222906

  16. A Design Pattern for Decentralised Decision Making.

    PubMed

    Reina, Andreagiovanni; Valentini, Gabriele; Fernández-Oto, Cristian; Dorigo, Marco; Trianni, Vito

    2015-01-01

    The engineering of large-scale decentralised systems requires sound methodologies to guarantee the attainment of the desired macroscopic system-level behaviour given the microscopic individual-level implementation. While a general-purpose methodology is currently out of reach, specific solutions can be given to broad classes of problems by means of well-conceived design patterns. We propose a design pattern for collective decision making grounded on experimental/theoretical studies of the nest-site selection behaviour observed in honeybee swarms (Apis mellifera). The way in which honeybee swarms arrive at consensus is fairly well-understood at the macroscopic level. We provide formal guidelines for the microscopic implementation of collective decisions to quantitatively match the macroscopic predictions. We discuss implementation strategies based on both homogeneous and heterogeneous multiagent systems, and we provide means to deal with spatial and topological factors that have a bearing on the micro-macro link. Finally, we exploit the design pattern in two case studies that showcase the viability of the approach. Besides engineering, such a design pattern can prove useful for a deeper understanding of decision making in natural systems thanks to the inclusion of individual heterogeneities and spatial factors, which are often disregarded in theoretical modelling. PMID:26496359

  17. A Design Pattern for Decentralised Decision Making.

    PubMed

    Reina, Andreagiovanni; Valentini, Gabriele; Fernández-Oto, Cristian; Dorigo, Marco; Trianni, Vito

    2015-01-01

    The engineering of large-scale decentralised systems requires sound methodologies to guarantee the attainment of the desired macroscopic system-level behaviour given the microscopic individual-level implementation. While a general-purpose methodology is currently out of reach, specific solutions can be given to broad classes of problems by means of well-conceived design patterns. We propose a design pattern for collective decision making grounded on experimental/theoretical studies of the nest-site selection behaviour observed in honeybee swarms (Apis mellifera). The way in which honeybee swarms arrive at consensus is fairly well-understood at the macroscopic level. We provide formal guidelines for the microscopic implementation of collective decisions to quantitatively match the macroscopic predictions. We discuss implementation strategies based on both homogeneous and heterogeneous multiagent systems, and we provide means to deal with spatial and topological factors that have a bearing on the micro-macro link. Finally, we exploit the design pattern in two case studies that showcase the viability of the approach. Besides engineering, such a design pattern can prove useful for a deeper understanding of decision making in natural systems thanks to the inclusion of individual heterogeneities and spatial factors, which are often disregarded in theoretical modelling.

  18. A Design Pattern for Decentralised Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Valentini, Gabriele; Fernández-Oto, Cristian; Dorigo, Marco

    2015-01-01

    The engineering of large-scale decentralised systems requires sound methodologies to guarantee the attainment of the desired macroscopic system-level behaviour given the microscopic individual-level implementation. While a general-purpose methodology is currently out of reach, specific solutions can be given to broad classes of problems by means of well-conceived design patterns. We propose a design pattern for collective decision making grounded on experimental/theoretical studies of the nest-site selection behaviour observed in honeybee swarms (Apis mellifera). The way in which honeybee swarms arrive at consensus is fairly well-understood at the macroscopic level. We provide formal guidelines for the microscopic implementation of collective decisions to quantitatively match the macroscopic predictions. We discuss implementation strategies based on both homogeneous and heterogeneous multiagent systems, and we provide means to deal with spatial and topological factors that have a bearing on the micro-macro link. Finally, we exploit the design pattern in two case studies that showcase the viability of the approach. Besides engineering, such a design pattern can prove useful for a deeper understanding of decision making in natural systems thanks to the inclusion of individual heterogeneities and spatial factors, which are often disregarded in theoretical modelling. PMID:26496359

  19. [HEALTH ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FAIR DECISION MAKING].

    PubMed

    Jeantet, Marine; Lopez, Alain

    2015-09-01

    Health technology assessment consists in evaluating the incremental cost-benefit ratio of a medicine, a medical device, a vaccine, a health strategy, in comparison to alternative health technologies. This form of socio-eoonomic evaluation aims at optimizing resource allocation within the health system. By setting the terms of valid alternatives, it is useful to highlight public choices, but it cannot in itself make the decision as regards the public funding of patient's access to the considered technology. The decision to include such technology in the basket of health goods and sercices covered, the levels and conditions of the coverage, also result from budget constraints, from economic situation and from a political vision about health policy, social protection and public expenditure. Accordingly, health economic analysis must be implemented on specific and targeted topics. The decision making process, with its health, economic and ethical stakes, calls for a public procedure and debate, based on shared information and argument. Otherwise, health system regulation, confronted with radical and costly innovations in the coming years, will become harder to handle. This requires the development of health economic research teams able to contribute to this assessment exercise. PMID:26619723

  20. Incorporating environmental justice into environmental decision making

    SciTech Connect

    Wolfe, A.K.; Vogt, D.P.; Hwang, Ho-Ling

    1995-07-01

    Executive Order 12898, signed on February 11, 1994, broadly states that federal activities, programs, and policies should not produce disproportionately high and adverse impacts on minority and low-income populations. Moreover, the Order indicates that these populations should not be denied the benefits of, or excluded from participation in, these activities, programs, and policies. Because a presidential memorandum accompanying the order said that National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) documents should begin to address environmental justice immediately, much attention has been paid to assessment-related issues. Also important, a topic that appears to have received relatively little attention, is how decision makers should be expected to use information about environmental justice in their decision making. This paper discusses issues surrounding the use of environmental justice information in the decision-making process by focusing on the following five main topics: (1) the importance, or weight, attached to environmental justice within larger decision-making contexts; (2) the potential tension between localized environmental justice issues and regional or national issues and needs; (3) the use of environmental justice information to develop (perhaps in concert with affected minority and low-income communities) appropriate mitigation strategies, or to establish conditions under which activities, programs, and policies may be accepted locally; (4) the general implications of shifting the distribution of broadly defined risks, costs, and benefits among different population groups; and (5) the implications of implementing environmental justice on an individual, ad hoc basis rather than within a larger environmental justice framework. This paper raises the issues and discusses the implications of alternative approaches to them.

  1. Diverse decisions. How culture affects ethical decision making.

    PubMed

    Wright, F; Cohen, S; Caroselli, C

    1997-03-01

    Even under optimal conditions, assisting patients and families in making ethical decisions is difficult at best. Often these decisions revolve around the end-of-life issues that require acknowledgement that the patient is unlikely to survive, which may be perceived as a failure to both the family and the staff. At the very least, it can be a sad time, fraught with uncertainty and indecision. When these difficulties are coupled with ineffective communication related to cultural insensitivity or unawareness, the effects can be devastating to the decision-making process. All CCNs are expected to master the skills necessary for assisting patients and families through the harrowing experience of life-threatening illness. Whereas much of critical care focuses on managing pathophysiologic disturbances, emotional needs are equally important. It follows then that the CCN must assume responsibility for assisting patients and families in coping with the crisis of critical illness and working through ethical issues, which often include end-of-life decisions and organ donation. Culturally competent care is required when addressing patient needs holistically, but it is so much more. It is an opportunity to enrich and deepen the CCN/patient/family relationship, advocate for the patient, and broaden the opportunities for communication among staff. This article has provided some beginning steps for increasing nursing cultural awareness and has offered some initial strategies to consider when designing a plan of care. Through continuing efforts, CCNs and organizations can do much to decrease the alienation that many patients and families have traditionally encountered in the CCU, an estrangement that is exacerbated when their culture is different from the predominant culture of the unit. The effort to become more culturally aware may appear to require extraordinary effort; however, the rewards of optimizing patient care are unsurpassed.

  2. Decision-making situations in health care.

    PubMed

    Murdach, A D

    1995-08-01

    Social workers in health care settings are constantly required to make clinical decisions about patient care and treatment. Although much attention has been devoted to the normative or ethical aspects of decision making in such settings, little attention has been given to the typical situational aspects of decisions social workers must make in health care. This article discusses four types of clinical decision situations--operational, strategic, authoritative, and crisis--and presents a model to assist in analyzing their components and requirements. Case vignettes drawn from practice experience illustrate each type of decision-making situation. The article concludes that knowledge of the situational aspects of practice decision making can be helpful to practitioners by enabling them to sort out courses of action and intervention.

  3. Psychiatric disturbance and decision-making.

    PubMed

    Radford, M H; Mann, L; Kalucy, R S

    1986-06-01

    The relationship between psychiatric disorder (as measured by severity of psychoneurotic status and depression) and decision-making behaviour was examined in a sample of 39 hospitalised patients. Measures based on the conflict theory of decision-making of Janis and Mann (1977) and the expectancy-value theory of decision-making of Edwards (1961) were administered. Patients who scored highest on measures of psychoneurotic disorder--the Middlesex Hospital Questionnaire and the Beck Depression Inventory--were least confident about their decision-making. They also reported a high use of maladaptive decision-making coping patterns, in particular decision avoidance. Slightly over one-half of the patients demonstrated an ability to make rational decisions, while the remainder made either irrational decisions or avoided making any decision at all. Observation in the test session revealed that patients were strikingly slow in answering the questionnaires and often attempted to make no response. The importance of this area of research for patient assessment and treatment is discussed.

  4. Computer Graphics and Administrative Decision-Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yost, Michael

    1984-01-01

    Reduction in prices now makes it possible for almost any institution to use computer graphics for administrative decision making and research. Current and potential uses of computer graphics in these two areas are discussed. (JN)

  5. URBAN DECISION-MAKING, THE UNIVERSITY'S ROLE.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    BAILEY, STEPHEN K.

    THE AUTHOR EXAMINES THE VARIOUS WAYS IN WHICH THE UNIVERSITY CAN AND SHOULD INFLUENCE URBAN DECISION MAKING. THE CENTRAL UNIVERSITY ROLE IS SENSITIZING THE DECISION MAKERS AND THE CITIZENS TO HUMAN MISERY, SUCH AS BIGOTRY, SQUALOR, DISEASE, UGLINESS, POVERTY, AND IGNORANCE. LONG-RANGE ROLES ARE PINPOINTING THE PROBLEMS URBAN DECISION MAKERS SHOULD…

  6. Beyond Decision Making: Cultural Ideology as Heuristic Paradigmatic Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Whitley, L. Darrell

    A paradigmatic model of cultural ideology provides a context for understanding the relationship between decision-making and personal and cultural rationality. Cultural rules or heuristics exist which indicate that many decisions can be made on the basis of established strategy rather than continual analytical calculations. When an optimal solution…

  7. How Useful Are Climate Projections for Adaptation Decision Making?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, J. B.; Vogel, J. M.

    2011-12-01

    Decision making is often portrayed as a linear process that assumes scientific knowledge is a necessary precursor to effective policy and is used directly in policy making. Yet, in practice, the use of scientific information in decision making is more complex than the linear model implies. The use of climate projections in adaptation decision making is a case in point. This paper briefly reviews efforts by some decision makers to understand climate change risks and to apply this knowledge when making decisions on management of climate sensitive resources and infrastructure . In general, and in spite of extensive efforts to study climate change at the regional and local scale to support decision making, few decisions outside of adapting to sea level rise appear to directly apply to climate change projections. A number of U.S. municipalities and states, including Seattle, New York City, Phoenix, and the States of California and Washington, have used climate change projections to assess their vulnerability to various climate change impacts. Some adaptation decisions have been made based on projections of sea level rise, such as change in location of infrastructure. This may be because a future rise is sea level is virtually certain. In contrast, decision making on precipitation has been more limited, even where there is consensus on likely changes in sign of the variable. Nonetheless, decision makers are adopting strategies that can be justified based on current climate and climate variability and that also reduce risks to climate change. A key question for the scientific community is whether improved projections will add value to decision making. For example, it remains unclear how higher-resolution projections can change decision making as long as the sign and magnitude of projections across climate models and downscaling techniques retains a wide range of uncertainty. It is also unclear whether even better information on the sign and magnitude of change would

  8. Reading and Consumer Decision Making Skills.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peck, Michaeleen P.; Laughlin, Margaret A.

    Teachers at all grade levels need to recognize the importance of instruction in consumer reading and decision making skills. The definitions and prerequisites of a literate consumer underscore the importance of reading and reasoning skills development for making effective decisions. Consumer educators must also recognize that economic…

  9. Ethical Decision Making and Effective Leadership

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kaucher, Ellie

    2010-01-01

    The problem. Educational leaders face challenges in the 21st century, make numerous decisions daily, and have the choice to make decisions based on ethics. Educational leaders may follow a corporate model regarding expenses and revenues while ignoring the best interests of children and their academic achievement. The alternative to the corporate…

  10. Collaborative Strategic Decision Making in School Districts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brazer, S. David; Rich, William; Ross, Susan A.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: The dual purpose of this paper is to determine how superintendents in US school districts work with stakeholders in the decision-making process and to learn how different choices superintendents make affect decision outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This multiple case study of three school districts employs qualitative methodology to…

  11. Decision Making: Rational, Nonrational, and Irrational.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simon, Herbert A.

    1993-01-01

    Describes the current state of knowledge about human decision-making and problem-solving processes, explaining recent developments and their implications for management and management training. Rational goal-setting is the key to effective decision making and accomplishment. Bounded rationality is a realistic orientation, because the world is too…

  12. Transformational Leadership & Decision Making in Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brower, Robert E.; Balch, Bradley V.

    2005-01-01

    It is essential for every school leader to possess the savvy to effect positive change, raise achievement levels, and foster a positive school climate. Now it seems that the struggle for school leaders to make productive decisions has become clouded with ever-growing uncertainty and skepticism. "Transformational Leadership & Decision Making in…

  13. Decision Making in Educational Settings. Fastback 211.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharman, Charles S.

    This booklet reviews decision-making, an important part of administrative processes, from the perspective of school teachers and other educators. The two most commonly used processes are the rational decision-making process (identify the problem, evaluate the problem, collect information, identify alternative solutions, select and implement…

  14. Clinical Decision Making of Rural Novice Nurses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Seright, Teresa J.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop substantive theory regarding decision making by the novice nurse in a rural hospital setting. Interviews were guided by the following research questions: What cues were used by novice rural registered nurses in order to make clinical decisions? What were the sources of feedback which influenced subsequent…

  15. Somatic markers, working memory, and decision making.

    PubMed

    Hinson, John M; Jameson, Tina L; Whitney, Paul

    2002-12-01

    The somatic marker hypothesis formulated by Damasio (e.g., 1994; Damasio, Tranel, & Damasio, 1991) argues that affective reactions ordinarily guide and simplify decision making. Although originally intended to explain decision-making deficits in people with specific frontal lobe damage, the hypothesis also applies to decision-making problems in populations without brain injury. Subsequently, the gambling task was developed by Bechara (Bechara, Damasio, Damasio, & Anderson, 1994) as a diagnostic test of decision-making deficit in neurological populations. More recently, the gambling task has been used to explore implications of the somatic marker hypothesis, as well as to study suboptimal decision making in a variety of domains. We examined relations among gambling task decision making, working memory (WM) load, and somatic markers in a modified version of the gambling task. Increased WM load produced by secondary tasks led to poorer gambling performance. Declines in gambling performance were associated with the absence of the affective reactions that anticipate choice outcomes and guide future decision making. Our experiments provide evidence that WM processes contribute to the development of somatic markers. If WM functioning is taxed, somatic markers may not develop, and decision making may thereby suffer. PMID:12641178

  16. Making Insulation Decisions through Mathematical Modeling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yanik, H. Bahadir; Memis, Yasin

    2014-01-01

    Engaging students in studies about conservation and sustainability can support their understanding of making environmental conscious decisions to conserve Earth. This article aims to contribute these efforts and direct students' attention to how they can use mathematics to make environmental decisions. Contributors to iSTEM: Integrating…

  17. Chicano Culture and Decision Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Valdez, Rudy

    Until recently, the Chicano was strongly influenced by the Mexican cultural tradition that looks on the school as an institution where decisions regarding his children were not to be questioned. The teacher's word was law and children were expected to be respectful, obedient and hardworking. It was unthinkable to go to the school to question their…

  18. Dynamics of multiple-choice decision making.

    PubMed

    You, Hongzhi; Wang, Da-Hui

    2013-08-01

    Neuroscientists have carried out comprehensive experiments to reveal the neural mechanisms underlying the perceptual decision making that pervades daily life. These experiments have illuminated salient features of decision making, including probabilistic choice behavior, the ramping activity of decision-related neurons, and the dependence of decision time and accuracy on the difficulty of the task. Spiking network models have reproduced these features, and a two-dimensional mean field model has demonstrated that the saddle node structure underlies two-alternative decision making. Here, we reduced a spiking network model to an analytically tractable, partial integro-differential system and characterized not only multiple-choice decision behaviors but also the time course of neural activities underlying decisions, providing a mechanistic explanation for the observations noted in the experiments. First, we observed that a two-bump unstable steady state of the system is responsible for two-choice decision making, similar to the saddle node structure in the two-dimensional mean field model. However, for four-choice decision making, three types of unstable steady states collectively predominate the time course of the evolution from the initial state to the stable states. Second, the time constant of the unstable steady state can explain the fact that four-choice decision making requires a longer time than two-choice decision making. However, the quicker decision, given a stronger motion strength, cannot be explained by the time constant of the unstable steady state. Rather, the decision time can be attributed to the projection coefficient of the difference between the initial state and the unstable steady state on the eigenvector corresponding to the largest positive eigenvalue.

  19. Social Influences in Sequential Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Schöbel, Markus; Rieskamp, Jörg; Huber, Rafael

    2016-01-01

    People often make decisions in a social environment. The present work examines social influence on people’s decisions in a sequential decision-making situation. In the first experimental study, we implemented an information cascade paradigm, illustrating that people infer information from decisions of others and use this information to make their own decisions. We followed a cognitive modeling approach to elicit the weight people give to social as compared to private individual information. The proposed social influence model shows that participants overweight their own private information relative to social information, contrary to the normative Bayesian account. In our second study, we embedded the abstract decision problem of Study 1 in a medical decision-making problem. We examined whether in a medical situation people also take others’ authority into account in addition to the information that their decisions convey. The social influence model illustrates that people weight social information differentially according to the authority of other decision makers. The influence of authority was strongest when an authority's decision contrasted with private information. Both studies illustrate how the social environment provides sources of information that people integrate differently for their decisions. PMID:26784448

  20. Nonrational processes in ethical decision making.

    PubMed

    Rogerson, Mark D; Gottlieb, Michael C; Handelsman, Mitchell M; Knapp, Samuel; Younggren, Jeffrey

    2011-10-01

    Most current ethical decision-making models provide a logical and reasoned process for making ethical judgments, but these models are empirically unproven and rely upon assumptions of rational, conscious, and quasilegal reasoning. Such models predominate despite the fact that many nonrational factors influence ethical thought and behavior, including context, perceptions, relationships, emotions, and heuristics. For example, a large body of behavioral research has demonstrated the importance of automatic intuitive and affective processes in decision making and judgment. These processes profoundly affect human behavior and lead to systematic biases and departures from normative theories of rationality. Their influence represents an important but largely unrecognized component of ethical decision making. We selectively review this work; provide various illustrations; and make recommendations for scientists, trainers, and practitioners to aid them in integrating the understanding of nonrational processes with ethical decision making.

  1. The neuroscience of social decision-making.

    PubMed

    Rilling, James K; Sanfey, Alan G

    2011-01-01

    Given that we live in highly complex social environments, many of our most important decisions are made in the context of social interactions. Simple but sophisticated tasks from a branch of experimental economics known as game theory have been used to study social decision-making in the laboratory setting, and a variety of neuroscience methods have been used to probe the underlying neural systems. This approach is informing our knowledge of the neural mechanisms that support decisions about trust, reciprocity, altruism, fairness, revenge, social punishment, social norm conformity, social learning, and competition. Neural systems involved in reward and reinforcement, pain and punishment, mentalizing, delaying gratification, and emotion regulation are commonly recruited for social decisions. This review also highlights the role of the prefrontal cortex in prudent social decision-making, at least when social environments are relatively stable. In addition, recent progress has been made in understanding the neural bases of individual variation in social decision-making.

  2. Smoking: Making the risky decision

    SciTech Connect

    Viscusi, W.K.

    1993-01-01

    This book approaches the smoking debate from a new angle. The thrust of the study was to determine if smokers are cognizant of the risks connected with smoking, and if so, how these risk beliefs influence the decision to smoke. The study evaluates the government's anti-smoking policies and recommends changes to these policies. Viscusi does not address the actual health risks of smoking independent of risk perception and subsequent behavioral data; the US Surgeon General's smoking risk assessments are acknowledged at face vale.

  3. Gender and internet consumers' decision-making.

    PubMed

    Yang, Chyan; Wu, Chia-Chun

    2007-02-01

    The purpose of this research is to provide managers of shopping websites information regarding consumer purchasing decisions based on the Consumer Styles Inventory (CSI). According to the CSI, one can capture what decision-making styles online shoppers use. Furthermore, this research also discusses the gender differences among online shoppers. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was used to understand the decision-making styles and discriminant analysis was used to distinguish the differences between female and male shoppers. The result shows that there are differences in purchasing decisions between online female and male Internet users. PMID:17305453

  4. Adolescent women's contraceptive decision making.

    PubMed

    Weisman, C S; Plichta, S; Nathanson, C A; Chase, G A; Ensminger, M E; Robinson, J C

    1991-06-01

    A modified rational decision model incorporating salient events and social influences (particularly from sexual partners) is used to analyze adolescent women's consistent use of oral contraceptives (OCs) over a six-month period. Data are taken from a panel study of 308 clients of an inner-city family planning clinic. Expected OC use was computed for each subject on the basis of subjective expected utility (SEU) theory, and is found in multivariate analyses to be a significant predictor of actual OC use. In addition, variables representing baseline and follow-up partner influences, the salience of pregnancy for the subject, and positive side effects of OCs during the first months of use are found to predict OC use. Partner's support of OC use during follow-up and positive side effects of OCs are found to predict OC use among subjects for whom OC use was not the expected decision according to baseline SEU. Implications of the findings for models of adolescents' contraceptive behavior and for clinicians are discussed. PMID:1861049

  5. Adolescent women's contraceptive decision making.

    PubMed

    Weisman, C S; Plichta, S; Nathanson, C A; Chase, G A; Ensminger, M E; Robinson, J C

    1991-06-01

    A modified rational decision model incorporating salient events and social influences (particularly from sexual partners) is used to analyze adolescent women's consistent use of oral contraceptives (OCs) over a six-month period. Data are taken from a panel study of 308 clients of an inner-city family planning clinic. Expected OC use was computed for each subject on the basis of subjective expected utility (SEU) theory, and is found in multivariate analyses to be a significant predictor of actual OC use. In addition, variables representing baseline and follow-up partner influences, the salience of pregnancy for the subject, and positive side effects of OCs during the first months of use are found to predict OC use. Partner's support of OC use during follow-up and positive side effects of OCs are found to predict OC use among subjects for whom OC use was not the expected decision according to baseline SEU. Implications of the findings for models of adolescents' contraceptive behavior and for clinicians are discussed.

  6. Intergroup conflict and rational decision making.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Tur, Vicente; Peñarroja, Vicente; Serrano, Miguel A; Hidalgo, Vanesa; Moliner, Carolina; Salvador, Alicia; Alacreu-Crespo, Adrián; Gracia, Esther; Molina, Agustín

    2014-01-01

    The literature has been relatively silent about post-conflict processes. However, understanding the way humans deal with post-conflict situations is a challenge in our societies. With this in mind, we focus the present study on the rationality of cooperative decision making after an intergroup conflict, i.e., the extent to which groups take advantage of post-conflict situations to obtain benefits from collaborating with the other group involved in the conflict. Based on dual-process theories of thinking and affect heuristic, we propose that intergroup conflict hinders the rationality of cooperative decision making. We also hypothesize that this rationality improves when groups are involved in an in-group deliberative discussion. Results of a laboratory experiment support the idea that intergroup conflict -associated with indicators of the activation of negative feelings (negative affect state and heart rate)- has a negative effect on the aforementioned rationality over time and on both group and individual decision making. Although intergroup conflict leads to sub-optimal decision making, rationality improves when groups and individuals subjected to intergroup conflict make decisions after an in-group deliberative discussion. Additionally, the increased rationality of the group decision making after the deliberative discussion is transferred to subsequent individual decision making.

  7. Intergroup Conflict and Rational Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Martínez-Tur, Vicente; Peñarroja, Vicente; Serrano, Miguel A.; Hidalgo, Vanesa; Moliner, Carolina; Salvador, Alicia; Alacreu-Crespo, Adrián; Gracia, Esther; Molina, Agustín

    2014-01-01

    The literature has been relatively silent about post-conflict processes. However, understanding the way humans deal with post-conflict situations is a challenge in our societies. With this in mind, we focus the present study on the rationality of cooperative decision making after an intergroup conflict, i.e., the extent to which groups take advantage of post-conflict situations to obtain benefits from collaborating with the other group involved in the conflict. Based on dual-process theories of thinking and affect heuristic, we propose that intergroup conflict hinders the rationality of cooperative decision making. We also hypothesize that this rationality improves when groups are involved in an in-group deliberative discussion. Results of a laboratory experiment support the idea that intergroup conflict –associated with indicators of the activation of negative feelings (negative affect state and heart rate)– has a negative effect on the aforementioned rationality over time and on both group and individual decision making. Although intergroup conflict leads to sub-optimal decision making, rationality improves when groups and individuals subjected to intergroup conflict make decisions after an in-group deliberative discussion. Additionally, the increased rationality of the group decision making after the deliberative discussion is transferred to subsequent individual decision making. PMID:25461384

  8. Stress and Aeronautical Team Decision Making: Strengthening the Weak Links

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orasanu, Judith; Rosekind, Mark R. (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    A model that characterizes pilots'decision making in flight will be presented. Elements of the model that appear most vulnerable to stress will be examined in light of accidents and incidents. The model includes two major components: Situation assessment and choice of a course of action. While based on Klein's Recognition-Primed Decision Making, it is tailored to the aviation environment which includes certain features that may be common to other domains: Primarily, aviation is highly proceduralized and options are generally well known. What appears to make decisions difficult are ambiguity, time pressure, and risk. In addition, decisions must often be made while carrying out the standard procedures of flight, including checklists, review of approach plates, standard briefings, and communication with air traffic controllers or cabin crew. The effects of stressors on decision making by pilots with varying levels of expertise will be explored, along with strategies for strengthening the weak links.

  9. A mechanism for value-sensitive decision-making.

    PubMed

    Pais, Darren; Hogan, Patrick M; Schlegel, Thomas; Franks, Nigel R; Leonard, Naomi E; Marshall, James A R

    2013-01-01

    We present a dynamical systems analysis of a decision-making mechanism inspired by collective choice in house-hunting honeybee swarms, revealing the crucial role of cross-inhibitory 'stop-signalling' in improving the decision-making capabilities. We show that strength of cross-inhibition is a decision-parameter influencing how decisions depend both on the difference in value and on the mean value of the alternatives; this is in contrast to many previous mechanistic models of decision-making, which are typically sensitive to decision accuracy rather than the value of the option chosen. The strength of cross-inhibition determines when deadlock over similarly valued alternatives is maintained or broken, as a function of the mean value; thus, changes in cross-inhibition strength allow adaptive time-dependent decision-making strategies. Cross-inhibition also tunes the minimum difference between alternatives required for reliable discrimination, in a manner similar to Weber's law of just-noticeable difference. Finally, cross-inhibition tunes the speed-accuracy trade-off realised when differences in the values of the alternatives are sufficiently large to matter. We propose that the model, and the significant role of the values of the alternatives, may describe other decision-making systems, including intracellular regulatory circuits, and simple neural circuits, and may provide guidance in the design of decision-making algorithms for artificial systems, particularly those functioning without centralised control.

  10. The Migration toward Ethical Decision Making as a Core Course into the B-School: Instructional Strategies and Approaches for Consideration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nelson, Johnathan; Smith, Lola B.; Hunt, Clifford Steven

    2014-01-01

    Many academicians are asking the following question: "Are we ill-preparing our business students if we fail to offer future business professionals the opportunity to engage in a greater understanding of the ethical decision making process?" The authors provide a current review of the literature on the state of ethics education in…

  11. The impact of monitoring on decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glisic, Branko; Adriaenssens, Sigrid; Zonta, Daniele

    2012-04-01

    Bridge managers often make decisions based on experience or common sense, somehow regardless of the action suggested by instrumental monitoring systems. Managers weigh differently the monitoring results based on their prior perception of the state of the structure and make decisions keeping in mind the possible effects of the action they can undertake. We propose a rational framework to include the impact of these issues on decision making, based on the concept of Value of Information. The methodology is demonstrated by the case study of the Streicker Bridge, a newly built pedestrian bridge on Princeton University campus.

  12. Neural Basis of Strategic Decision Making.

    PubMed

    Lee, Daeyeol; Seo, Hyojung

    2016-01-01

    Human choice behaviors during social interactions often deviate from the predictions of game theory. This might arise partly from the limitations in the cognitive abilities necessary for recursive reasoning about the behaviors of others. In addition, during iterative social interactions, choices might change dynamically as knowledge about the intentions of others and estimates for choice outcomes are incrementally updated via reinforcement learning. Some of the brain circuits utilized during social decision making might be general-purpose and contribute to isomorphic individual and social decision making. By contrast, regions in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and temporal parietal junction (TPJ) might be recruited for cognitive processes unique to social decision making.

  13. Making the Connection between Environmental Science and Decision Making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woodhouse, C. A.; Crimmins, M.; Ferguson, D. B.; Garfin, G. M.; Scott, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    As society is confronted with population growth, limited resources, and the impacts of climate variability and change, it is vital that institutions of higher education promote the development of professionals who can work with decision-makers to incorporate scientific information into environmental planning and management. Skills for the communication of science are essential, but equally important is the ability to understand decision-making contexts and engage with resource managers and policy makers. It is increasingly being recognized that people who understand the linkages between science and decision making are crucial if science is to better support planning and policy. A new graduate-level seminar, "Making the Connection between Environmental Science and Decision Making," is a core course for a new post-baccalaureate certificate program, Connecting Environmental Science and Decision Making at the University of Arizona. The goal of the course is to provide students with a basic understanding of the dynamics between scientists and decision makers that result in scientific information being incorporated into environmental planning, policy, and management decisions. Through readings from the environmental and social sciences, policy, and planning literature, the course explores concepts including scientific information supply and demand, boundary organizations, co-production of knowledge, platforms for engagement, and knowledge networks. Visiting speakers help students understand some of the challenges of incorporating scientific information into planning and decision making within institutional and political contexts. The course also includes practical aspects of two-way communication via written, oral, and graphical presentations as well as through the interview process to facilitate the transfer of scientific information to decision makers as well as to broader audiences. We aspire to help students develop techniques that improve communication and

  14. The hidden traps in decision making.

    PubMed

    Hammond, J S; Keeney, R L; Raiffa, H

    1999-01-01

    Bad decisions can often be traced back to the way the decisions were made--the alternatives were not clearly defined, the right information was not collected, the costs and benefits were not accurately weighed. But sometimes the fault lies not in the decision-making process but rather in the mind of the decision maker. The way the human brain works can sabotage the choices we make. Eight psychological traps that are particularly likely to affect the way we make business decisions are examined. The anchoring trap leads us to give disproportionate weight to the first information we receive. The status-quo trap biases us toward maintaining the current situation--even when better alternatives exist. The sunk-cost trap inclines us to perpetuate the mistakes of the past. The confirming-evidence trap leads us to seek out information supporting an existing predilection and to discount opposing information. The framing trap occurs when we misstate a problem, undermining the entire decision-making process. The overconfidence trap makes us over-estimate the accuracy of our forecasts. The prudence trap leads us to be overcautious when we make estimates about uncertain events. And the recallability trap leads us to give undue weight to recent, dramatic events. The best way to avoid all the traps is awareness--forewarned is forearmed. The authors show how to take action to ensure that important business decisions are sound and reliable.

  15. Shared decision-making and patient autonomy.

    PubMed

    Sandman, Lars; Munthe, Christian

    2009-01-01

    In patient-centred care, shared decision-making is advocated as the preferred form of medical decision-making. Shared decision-making is supported with reference to patient autonomy without abandoning the patient or giving up the possibility of influencing how the patient is benefited. It is, however, not transparent how shared decision-making is related to autonomy and, in effect, what support autonomy can give shared decision-making. In the article, different forms of shared decision-making are analysed in relation to five different aspects of autonomy: (1) self-realisation; (2) preference satisfaction; (3) self-direction; (4) binary autonomy of the person; (5) gradual autonomy of the person. It is argued that both individually and jointly these aspects will support the models called shared rational deliberative patient choice and joint decision as the preferred versions from an autonomy perspective. Acknowledging that both of these models may fail, the professionally driven best interest compromise model is held out as a satisfactory second-best choice.

  16. Making sense of adolescent decision-making: challenge and reality.

    PubMed

    Unguru, Yoram

    2011-08-01

    Few topics in pediatric bioethics are as vexing as decision-making. Decision-making in pediatrics presents challenges for children, parents, and physicians alike. The related, yet distinct, concepts of assent and consent are central to pediatric decision-making. Although informed consent is largely regarded as a worthwhile adult principle, assent has been, and continues to be, mired in debate. Controversial subjects include a meaningful definition of assent; how old children should be to assent; who should be included in the assent process; parental permission; how to resolve disputes between children and their parents; the relationship between assent and consent; the quantity and quality of information to disclose to children and their families; how much and what information children desire and need; the necessity and methods for assessing both children's understanding of disclosed information and of the assent process itself; reconciling ethical and legal attitudes toward assent; and finally, an effective, practical, and realistically applicable decision-making model.

  17. A Conditional Model of Evidence-Based Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Falzer, Paul R.; Garman, D. Melissa

    2009-01-01

    Rationale Efforts to describe how individual treatment decisions are informed by systematic knowledge have been hindered by a standard that gauges the quality of clinical decisions by their adherence to guidelines and evidence-based practices. This paper tests a new contextual standard that gauges the incorporation of knowledge into practice and develops a model of evidence-based decision making. Aims and objectives Previous work found that the forecasted outcome of a treatment guideline exerts a highly significant influence on how it is used in making decisions. This study proposed that forecasted outcomes affect the recognition of a treatment scenario, and this recognition triggers distinct contextual decision strategies. Method N=21 volunteers from a psychiatric residency program responded to 64 case vignettes, 16 in each of four treatment scenarios. The vignettes represented a fully balanced within-subjects design that included guideline switching criteria and patient-specific factors. For each vignette, participants indicated whether they endorsed the guideline’s recommendation. Results Clinicians employed consistent contextual decision strategies in responding to clearly positive or negative forecasts. When forecasts were more ambiguous or risky, their strategies became complex and relatively inconsistent. Conclusion The results support a three step model of evidence-based decision making, in which clinicians recognize a decision scenario, apply a simple contextual strategy, then if necessary engage a more complex strategy to resolve discrepancies between general guidelines and specific cases. The paper concludes by noting study limitations and discussing implications of the model for future research in clinical and shared decision making, training, and guideline development. PMID:20367718

  18. Decision-Making Style and Vocational Maturity.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Phillips, Susan D.; Strohmer, Douglas C.

    1982-01-01

    Examined the relationship between decision-making style, scholastic achievement, and vocational maturity for college students (N=64). Results did not support the hypothesized relationship between rationality and attitudinal and cognitive maturity. Scholastic achievement and lack of dependent decision style were found to be moderately predictive of…

  19. Goal-Proximity Decision-Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Veksler, Vladislav D.; Gray, Wayne D.; Schoelles, Michael J.

    2013-01-01

    Reinforcement learning (RL) models of decision-making cannot account for human decisions in the absence of prior reward or punishment. We propose a mechanism for choosing among available options based on goal-option association strengths, where association strengths between objects represent previously experienced object proximity. The proposed…

  20. Shared Decision Making in Cancer Care

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Butow, Phyllis; Tattersall, Martin

    2005-01-01

    Cancer treatment outcomes have improved over the past 20 years, but treatment decision making in this context remains complex. There are often a number of reasonable treatment alternatives, including no treatment in some circumstances. Patients and doctors often have to weigh up uncertain benefits against uncertain costs. Shared decision making…

  1. The Development of Decision-Making Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mettas, Alexandros

    2011-01-01

    This paper suggests an innovative idea of using the "technology fair" as a means for promoting pre-service teachers (university students) decision-making skills. The purpose of the study was to investigate the influence of a procedure of working with primary school children to complete and present a technology fair project, on the decision-making…

  2. Decision-Making When Public Opinion Matters

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coppock, Rob

    1977-01-01

    Discusses the impact of public opinion on government decision-making, and develops a model that describes how certain input or control factors can combine to produce discontinuous or divergent policy decisions. Available from: Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, Box 211, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, single copies available. (Author/JG)

  3. Decision Making in Recurrent Neuronal Circuits

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xiao-Jing

    2009-01-01

    Decision making has recently emerged as a central theme in neurophysiological studies of cognition, and experimental and computational work has led to the proposal of a cortical circuit mechanism of elemental decision computations. This mechanism depends on slow recurrent synaptic excitation balanced by fast feedback inhibition, which not only instantiates attractor states for forming categorical choices but also long transients for gradually accumulating evidence in favor of or against alternative options. Such a circuit endowed with reward-dependent synaptic plasticity is able to produce adaptive choice behavior. While decision threshold is a core concept for reaction time tasks, it can be dissociated from a general decision rule. Moreover, perceptual decisions and value-based economic choices are described within a unified framework in which probabilistic choices result from irregular neuronal activity as well as iterative interactions of a decision maker with an uncertain environment or other unpredictable decision makers in a social group. PMID:18957215

  4. Career Decision Making and Its Evaluation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller-Tiedeman, Anna

    1979-01-01

    The author discusses a career decision-making program which she designed and implemented using a pyramidal model of exploration, crystallization, choice, and classification. Her article outlines the value of rigorous evaluation techniques applied by the local practitioner. (MF)

  5. Middle-Management Participatory Decision Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goss, Theresa C.

    1984-01-01

    Explores areas of middle management in which community/junior college librarians could be more involved and productive (e.g., planning, coordination, and public relations). Offers guidelines for effective group decision making. (DMM)

  6. [Aeromedical Decision-Making in Psychiatry].

    PubMed

    Weber, F

    2016-09-01

    This paper reviews aeromedical decision-making in psychiatry. It explains the "one-percent rule", the general medical criteria for fitness for flying and how they are applied to psychiatric disorders. PMID:27607071

  7. Decision blocks: A tool for automating decision making in CLIPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eick, Christoph F.; Mehta, Nikhil N.

    1991-01-01

    The human capability of making complex decision is one of the most fascinating facets of human intelligence, especially if vague, judgemental, default or uncertain knowledge is involved. Unfortunately, most existing rule based forward chaining languages are not very suitable to simulate this aspect of human intelligence, because of their lack of support for approximate reasoning techniques needed for this task, and due to the lack of specific constructs to facilitate the coding of frequently reoccurring decision block to provide better support for the design and implementation of rule based decision support systems. A language called BIRBAL, which is defined on the top of CLIPS, for the specification of decision blocks, is introduced. Empirical experiments involving the comparison of the length of CLIPS program with the corresponding BIRBAL program for three different applications are surveyed. The results of these experiments suggest that for decision making intensive applications, a CLIPS program tends to be about three times longer than the corresponding BIRBAL program.

  8. Training Adaptive Decision-Making.

    SciTech Connect

    Abbott, Robert G.; Forsythe, James C.

    2014-10-01

    Adaptive Thinking has been defined here as the capacity to recognize when a course of action that may have previously been effective is no longer effective and there is need to adjust strategy. Research was undertaken with human test subjects to identify the factors that contribute to adaptive thinking. It was discovered that those most effective in settings that call for adaptive thinking tend to possess a superior capacity to quickly and effectively generate possible courses of action, as measured using the Category Generation test. Software developed for this research has been applied to develop capabilities enabling analysts to identify crucial factors that are predictive of outcomes in fore-on-force simulation exercises.

  9. Cognitive reflection vs. calculation in decision making

    PubMed Central

    Sinayev, Aleksandr; Peters, Ellen

    2015-01-01

    Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005). In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes to better decision making. In two studies, CRT responses were used to calculate Cognitive Reflection and numeric ability; a numeracy scale was also administered. Numeric ability, measured on the CRT or the numeracy scale, accounted for the CRT's ability to predict more normative decisions (a subscale of decision-making competence, incentivized measures of impatient and risk-averse choice, and self-reported financial outcomes); Cognitive Reflection contributed no independent predictive power. Results were similar whether the two abilities were modeled (Study 1) or calculated using proportions (Studies 1 and 2). These findings demonstrate numeric ability as a robust predictor of superior decision making across multiple tasks and outcomes. They also indicate that correlations of decision performance with the CRT are insufficient evidence to implicate overriding intuitions in the decision-making biases and outcomes we examined. Numeric ability appears to be the key mechanism instead. PMID:25999877

  10. Cognitive reflection vs. calculation in decision making.

    PubMed

    Sinayev, Aleksandr; Peters, Ellen

    2015-01-01

    Scores on the three-item Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) have been linked with dual-system theory and normative decision making (Frederick, 2005). In particular, the CRT is thought to measure monitoring of System 1 intuitions such that, if cognitive reflection is high enough, intuitive errors will be detected and the problem will be solved. However, CRT items also require numeric ability to be answered correctly and it is unclear how much numeric ability vs. cognitive reflection contributes to better decision making. In two studies, CRT responses were used to calculate Cognitive Reflection and numeric ability; a numeracy scale was also administered. Numeric ability, measured on the CRT or the numeracy scale, accounted for the CRT's ability to predict more normative decisions (a subscale of decision-making competence, incentivized measures of impatient and risk-averse choice, and self-reported financial outcomes); Cognitive Reflection contributed no independent predictive power. Results were similar whether the two abilities were modeled (Study 1) or calculated using proportions (Studies 1 and 2). These findings demonstrate numeric ability as a robust predictor of superior decision making across multiple tasks and outcomes. They also indicate that correlations of decision performance with the CRT are insufficient evidence to implicate overriding intuitions in the decision-making biases and outcomes we examined. Numeric ability appears to be the key mechanism instead.

  11. Geospatial decision support systems for societal decision making

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bernknopf, R.L.

    2005-01-01

    While science provides reliable information to describe and understand the earth and its natural processes, it can contribute more. There are many important societal issues in which scientific information can play a critical role. Science can add greatly to policy and management decisions to minimize loss of life and property from natural and man-made disasters, to manage water, biological, energy, and mineral resources, and in general, to enhance and protect our quality of life. However, the link between science and decision-making is often complicated and imperfect. Technical language and methods surround scientific research and the dissemination of its results. Scientific investigations often are conducted under different conditions, with different spatial boundaries, and in different timeframes than those needed to support specific policy and societal decisions. Uncertainty is not uniformly reported in scientific investigations. If society does not know that data exist, what the data mean, where to use the data, or how to include uncertainty when a decision has to be made, then science gets left out -or misused- in a decision making process. This paper is about using Geospatial Decision Support Systems (GDSS) for quantitative policy analysis. Integrated natural -social science methods and tools in a Geographic Information System that respond to decision-making needs can be used to close the gap between science and society. The GDSS has been developed so that nonscientists can pose "what if" scenarios to evaluate hypothetical outcomes of policy and management choices. In this approach decision makers can evaluate the financial and geographic distribution of potential policy options and their societal implications. Actions, based on scientific information, can be taken to mitigate hazards, protect our air and water quality, preserve the planet's biodiversity, promote balanced land use planning, and judiciously exploit natural resources. Applications using the

  12. Biologically inspired intelligent decision making

    PubMed Central

    Manning, Timmy; Sleator, Roy D; Walsh, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are a class of powerful machine learning models for classification and function approximation which have analogs in nature. An ANN learns to map stimuli to responses through repeated evaluation of exemplars of the mapping. This learning approach results in networks which are recognized for their noise tolerance and ability to generalize meaningful responses for novel stimuli. It is these properties of ANNs which make them appealing for applications to bioinformatics problems where interpretation of data may not always be obvious, and where the domain knowledge required for deductive techniques is incomplete or can cause a combinatorial explosion of rules. In this paper, we provide an introduction to artificial neural network theory and review some interesting recent applications to bioinformatics problems. PMID:24335433

  13. Economic Decision-Making. Decision-Making in Contemporary America, Unit III.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vetter, Donald P.; And Others

    This unit on economic decision-making is the third of five units in a ninth grade social studies course (see SO 010 891 for course description). Major objectives are to help students analyze alternative choices in consumer decision situations and defend the selections; evaluate information and make decisions about what to produce, how to produce,…

  14. From Career Decision-Making Styles to Career Decision-Making Profiles: A Multidimensional Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gati, Itamar; Landman, Shiri; Davidovitch, Shlomit; Asulin-Peretz, Lisa; Gadassi, Reuma

    2010-01-01

    Previous research on individual differences in career decision-making processes has often focused on classifying individuals into a few types of decision-making "styles" based on the most dominant trait or characteristic of their approach to the decision process (e.g., rational, intuitive, dependent; Harren, 1979). In this research, an alternative…

  15. Making Sustainable Decisions Using The KONVERGENCE Framework

    SciTech Connect

    Piet, S. J.; Gibson, P. L.; Joe, J. C.; Kerr, T. A.; Nitschke, R. L.; Dakins, M. E.

    2003-02-25

    Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. ''Cleanup'' includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done--some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period-from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept ''as is'' or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: (1) Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? (2) Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? (3) Resources: what is available to implement possible solutions or improve knowledge? This mental model helps analyze and visualize what is happening as decisions are made and kept. Why is there disagreement? Is there movement toward konvergence? Is a past decision drifting out of konvergence? The framework includes strategic improvements, i.e., expand the spectrum of alternatives to include adaptable alternatives and decision networks. It includes tactical process improvements derived from experience, values, and relevant literature. This paper includes diagnosis and medication (suggested path forward) for intractable cases.

  16. Neural basis of quasi-rational decision making.

    PubMed

    Lee, Daeyeol

    2006-04-01

    Standard economic theories conceive homo economicus as a rational decision maker capable of maximizing utility. In reality, however, people tend to approximate optimal decision-making strategies through a collection of heuristic routines. Some of these routines are driven by emotional processes, and others are adjusted iteratively through experience. In addition, routines specialized for social decision making, such as inference about the mental states of other decision makers, might share their origins and neural mechanisms with the ability to simulate or imagine outcomes expected from alternative actions that an individual can take. A recent surge of collaborations across economics, psychology and neuroscience has provided new insights into how such multiple elements of decision making interact in the brain.

  17. Decision Making in Action: Applying Research to Practice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orasanu, Judith; Statler, Irving C. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication

  18. Examining Decision-Making Regarding Environmental Information

    SciTech Connect

    Marble, Julie Lynne; Medema, Heather Dawne; Hill, Susan Gardiner

    2001-10-01

    Eight participants were asked to view a computer-based multimedia presentation on an environmental phenomenon. Participants were asked to play a role as a senior aide to a national legislator. In this role, they were told that the legislator had asked them to review a multimedia presentation regarding the hypoxic zone phenomenon in the Gulf of Mexico. Their task in assuming the role of a senior aide was to decide how important a problem this issue was to the United States as a whole, and the proportion of the legislator’s research budget that should be devoted to study of the problem. The presentation was divided into 7 segments, each containing some new information not contained in the previous segments. After viewing each segment, participants were asked to indicate how close they were to making a decision and how certain they were that their current opinion would be their final decision. After indicating their current state of decision-making, participants were interviewed regarding the factors affecting their decision-making. Of interest was the process by which participants moved toward a decision. This experiment revealed a number of possible directions for future research. There appeared to be two approaches to decision-making: Some decision-makers moved steadily toward a decision, and occasionally reversed decisions after viewing information, while others abruptly reached a decision after a certain time period spent reviewing the information. Although the difference in estimates of distance to decisions did not differ statistically for these two groups, that difference was reflected in the participants’ estimates of confidence that their current opinion would be their final decision. The interviews revealed that the primary difference between these two groups was in their trade-offs between willingness to spend time in information search and the acquisition of new information. Participants who were less confident about their final decision, tended to be

  19. Quantum probability and quantum decision-making.

    PubMed

    Yukalov, V I; Sornette, D

    2016-01-13

    A rigorous general definition of quantum probability is given, which is valid not only for elementary events but also for composite events, for operationally testable measurements as well as for inconclusive measurements, and also for non-commuting observables in addition to commutative observables. Our proposed definition of quantum probability makes it possible to describe quantum measurements and quantum decision-making on the same common mathematical footing. Conditions are formulated for the case when quantum decision theory reduces to its classical counterpart and for the situation where the use of quantum decision theory is necessary.

  20. How technology is improving decision making for environmental restoration

    SciTech Connect

    Ditmars, J.

    1995-02-01

    Environmental restoration, or the cleanup of contaminants from past activities, at its core depends on a series of decisions about the nature and extent of contamination, the risk to human health and the environment, and the potential effectiveness of remediation techniques and technologies to reduce the risk to acceptable levels. The effectiveness with which these decisions are made has significant impacts on the cost and duration of the cleanup efforts. The decisions must often be made on the basis of incomplete and uncertain data. Emerging environmental information and data acquisition technologies together with appropriate strategies to support decision making are beginning to change the way environmental restoration occurs in the United States. Past environmental restoration activities too often relied on prescriptive data collection activities to generate the information upon which decisions were to be made. Retrospective studies of such activities have shown that, while often data were gathered for the purpose of reducing the risk in decision making, little true reduction in risk was realized and large amounts of resources were consumed. Recent examination of the failures in the United States to achieve many complete cleanups despite the investment of large sums and time points to the inability to have decisions made efficiently. The solution to the problem involves both regulatory change to allow more flexibility in decision-making and the introduction of technology to improve decision making. This paper reviews the recent assessments made of the cleanup process and application of strategies and technologies to enhance decision-making for cleanup. It provides examples of the new decision approaches and the technologies that have been employed to speed up characterization and to optimize the implementation of remediation.

  1. Zeno's paradox in decision-making.

    PubMed

    Yearsley, James M; Pothos, Emmanuel M

    2016-04-13

    Classical probability theory has been influential in modelling decision processes, despite empirical findings that have been persistently paradoxical from classical perspectives. For such findings, some researchers have been successfully pursuing decision models based on quantum theory (QT). One unique feature of QT is the collapse postulate, which entails that measurements (or in decision-making, judgements) reset the state to be consistent with the measured outcome. If there is quantum structure in cognition, then there has to be evidence for the collapse postulate. A striking, a prioriprediction, is that opinion change will be slowed down (under idealized conditions frozen) by continuous judgements. In physics, this is the quantum Zeno effect. We demonstrate a quantum Zeno effect in decision-making in humans and so provide evidence that advocates the use of quantum principles in decision theory, at least in some cases. PMID:27053743

  2. Making strategy: learning by doing.

    PubMed

    Christensen, C M

    1997-01-01

    Companies find it difficult to change strategy for many reasons, but one stands out: strategic thinking is not a core managerial competence at most companies. Executives hone their capabilities by tackling problems over and over again. Changing strategy, however, is not usually a task that they face repeatedly. Once companies have found a strategy that works, they want to use it, not change it. Consequently, most managers do not develop a competence in strategic thinking. This Manager's Tool Kit presents a three-stage method executives can use to conceive and implement a creative and coherent strategy themselves. The first stage is to identify and map the driving forces that the company needs to address. The process of mapping provides strategy-making teams with visual representations of team members' assumptions, those pictures, in turn, enable managers to achieve consensus in determining the driving forces. Once a senior management team has formulated a new strategy, it must align the strategy with the company's resource-allocation process to make implementation possible. Senior management teams can translate their strategy into action by using aggregate project planning. And management teams that link strategy and innovation through that planning process will develop a competence in implementing strategic change. The author guides the reader through the three stages of strategy making by examining the case of a manufacturing company that was losing ground to competitors. After mapping the driving forces, the company's senior managers were able to devise a new strategy that allowed the business to maintain a competitive advantage in its industry.

  3. Dissociating sensory from decision processes in human perceptual decision making

    PubMed Central

    Mostert, Pim; Kok, Peter; de Lange, Floris P.

    2015-01-01

    A key question within systems neuroscience is how the brain translates physical stimulation into a behavioral response: perceptual decision making. To answer this question, it is important to dissociate the neural activity underlying the encoding of sensory information from the activity underlying the subsequent temporal integration into a decision variable. Here, we adopted a decoding approach to empirically assess this dissociation in human magnetoencephalography recordings. We used a functional localizer to identify the neural signature that reflects sensory-specific processes, and subsequently traced this signature while subjects were engaged in a perceptual decision making task. Our results revealed a temporal dissociation in which sensory processing was limited to an early time window and consistent with occipital areas, whereas decision-related processing became increasingly pronounced over time, and involved parietal and frontal areas. We found that the sensory processing accurately reflected the physical stimulus, irrespective of the eventual decision. Moreover, the sensory representation was stable and maintained over time when it was required for a subsequent decision, but unstable and variable over time when it was task-irrelevant. In contrast, decision-related activity displayed long-lasting sustained components. Together, our approach dissects neuro-anatomically and functionally distinct contributions to perceptual decisions. PMID:26666393

  4. How well-run boards make decisions.

    PubMed

    Useem, Michael

    2006-11-01

    In the aftermath of seismic debacles like those that toppled Enron and WorldCom, corporate boards have been shaken up and made over. More directors are independent these days, for instance, and corporations now disclose directors' salaries and committee members' names. Research shows that most of the changes are having a positive effect on companies' performance. They are primarily structural, though, and don't go to the heart of a board's work: making the choices that shape a firm's future. Which decisions boards own and how those calls are made are largely hidden from the public. As a result, boards are often unable to learn from the best governance practices of their counterparts at other companies. This article pulls back the curtain and provides an inside look. Drawing on interviews with board members and executives at 31 companies, along with a close examination of three boardroom decisions, the author identifies several formal processes that can help companies improve their decision making: creating calendars that specify when the board and the standing committees will consider key items; drafting charters that define the decisions committees are responsible for; and developing decision protocols that divvy up responsibilities between directors and executives. The author also identifies a number of informal decision-making principles: Items that are strategically significant and touch on the firm's core values should go to the board. Large decisions should be divided into small pieces, so the board can devote sufficient attention to each one. Directors must remain vigilant to ensure that their decisions are effectively implemented. The CEO and either the nonexecutive chair or the lead director should engage in ongoing dialogue regarding which decisions to take to the full board and when. And directors should challenge assumptions before making yes-or-no decisions on management proposals. PMID:17131569

  5. Relationship between Student Pharmacist Decision Making Preferences and Experiential Learning

    PubMed Central

    McLaughlin, Jacqueline E.; Cox, Wendy C.; Shepherd, Greene

    2016-01-01

    Objective. To determine if student pharmacists’ preferences towards experiential and rational thinking are associated with performance on advanced pharmacy practice experiences (APPEs) and whether thinking style preference changes following APPEs. Methods. The Rational Experiential Inventory (REI), a validated survey of thinking style, was administered to student pharmacists before starting APPEs and re-administered after completing APPEs. APPE grades were compared to initial REI scores. Results. Rational Experiential Inventory scores remained consistent before and after APPEs. Overall, APPE grades were independent of REI scores. In a regression model, the REI experiential score was a significant negative predictor of hospital APPE grades. Conclusion. These findings suggest that overall APPE performance is independent of decision-making preference, and decision-making style does not change following immersion into APPEs. Instead of targeting teaching strategies towards a specific decision-making style, preceptors may use pedagogical approaches that promote sound clinical decision-making skills through critical thinking and reflection. PMID:27756927

  6. Decision-making processes of youth.

    PubMed

    Moore, J W; Jensen, B; Hauck, W E

    1990-01-01

    Research supports the theory that after administrators make a decision, feedback, both positive and negative, and also the administrators' perceived security vis-à-vis their position affect their level of commitment to a course of action. However, this research fails to recognize that subjects of college age playing administrators in the simulated, experimental treatments which have been presented in the research had nothing personally to lose if they made a bad decision--an orientation contradictory to the reality of most actual administrative positions. Additionally, the research ignores the interactional effects of the personality of decision makers in terms of their anxiety levels and the judgments they make. This study took both of these considerations into account by creating a decision-making situation within which prospective administrators made monetary commitments to long-term goals while their anxiety level, both as a basic personality attribute and an index of the reality of the decision-making process, was monitored under conditions of varying levels of job insecurity and resistance to their policies in relation to their decisions. Analyses revealed that contrary to the results of past research which used college students as subjects: (1) there is a significant negative correlation between levels of anxiety and commitments to previously chosen courses of action; (2) there are no significant effects of job security on commitment; and, most importantly, (3) high resistance to a policy decision leads to significantly less monetary commitments to long-term goals. The findings suggest that the basis for the contradictory results lies with the anxiety level of decision makers and the realism of experiencing a loss by making poor decisions. PMID:2264508

  7. Intergenerational risk decision making: a practical example.

    PubMed

    Kadak, A C

    2000-12-01

    There is no such thing as intergenerational decision making, at least not yet. In fact, there is no such thing as intragenerational decision making in the context of maximizing overall social good given resource limitations, there are just decisions being made in an ad hoc fashion. Even if one assumes that there is such a thing as intragenerational decision making, no uniform standard or guidance exists to make societal decisions for the common good. Risks to society are judged unevenly within the same agency and across agencies. Decisions are made in isolation and not weighed in the societal context of what is intra or intergenerationally important. The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA) has set forth a framework for intergenerational decision making that provides a consistent and fair basis for making tough decisions in order to address difficult issues such as the long-term disposal of nuclear wastes. NAPA recognizes that there is an intergenerational obligation that must encompass broader questions than the narrow issue of waste disposal since resources are finite and needs are great. The fundamental principles are based on sustainability with the overarching objective that "no generation should needlessly, now or in the future, deprive its successors of the opportunity to enjoy a quality of life equivalent to its own." Coupled with this objective are four supporting principles of trusteeship, sustainability, chain of obligation, and precaution. The NAPA process also recognizes that no decision can be final and that a "rolling future" view is better than making decisions for "all time." It attempts to balance the needs of the present with those of the future in an open and transparent process that is aimed at producing a decision, not just endless analysis. The U.S. Congress and president should develop a rational standard by which to judge laws that involve intra and intergenerational issues relative to the overall societal good. Present

  8. Staged decision making based on probabilistic forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Booister, Nikéh; Verkade, Jan; Werner, Micha; Cranston, Michael; Cumiskey, Lydia; Zevenbergen, Chris

    2016-04-01

    Flood forecasting systems reduce, but cannot eliminate uncertainty about the future. Probabilistic forecasts explicitly show that uncertainty remains. However, as - compared to deterministic forecasts - a dimension is added ('probability' or 'likelihood'), with this added dimension decision making is made slightly more complicated. A technique of decision support is the cost-loss approach, which defines whether or not to issue a warning or implement mitigation measures (risk-based method). With the cost-loss method a warning will be issued when the ratio of the response costs to the damage reduction is less than or equal to the probability of the possible flood event. This cost-loss method is not widely used, because it motivates based on only economic values and is a technique that is relatively static (no reasoning, yes/no decision). Nevertheless it has high potential to improve risk-based decision making based on probabilistic flood forecasting because there are no other methods known that deal with probabilities in decision making. The main aim of this research was to explore the ways of making decision making based on probabilities with the cost-loss method better applicable in practice. The exploration began by identifying other situations in which decisions were taken based on uncertain forecasts or predictions. These cases spanned a range of degrees of uncertainty: from known uncertainty to deep uncertainty. Based on the types of uncertainties, concepts of dealing with situations and responses were analysed and possible applicable concepts where chosen. Out of this analysis the concepts of flexibility and robustness appeared to be fitting to the existing method. Instead of taking big decisions with bigger consequences at once, the idea is that actions and decisions are cut-up into smaller pieces and finally the decision to implement is made based on economic costs of decisions and measures and the reduced effect of flooding. The more lead-time there is in

  9. Breast restoration decision making: enhancing the process.

    PubMed

    Reaby, L L

    1998-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the breast restoration decision-making patterns used by women who opted to have their breast cancer treated by mastectomy. Sixty-four women wearing external breast prostheses and 31 women with breast reconstructions were interviewed. Modified versions of Simon's notion of "bounded rationality" and Janis and Mann's conflict model provided the conceptual scaffolding for the study. Five breast restoration decision-making patterns emerged from the analysis of the interview data: (a) Enlightened (actively seeks information, considers positive and negative aspects, and demonstrates deliberation on the alternatives), (b) Contented (passively accepts minimum information on alternatives because of a preference toward a particular type), (c) Sideliner (uncritically adopts any alternative that is easy and simple to implement), (d) Shifter (gives over the decision to others), and (e) Panic-stricken (can make no rational decision on alternatives). In the prosthesis group, the major pattern used was the Sideliner, and in the reconstruction group it was the Contented. None of the participants used the Enlightened pattern. The data indicated that there was no evidence of active information-seeking behavior or deliberation on the alternatives as part of the women's decision-making process. The findings suggest a need for a registered nurse oncology specialist to be accessible to women during the period when decisions regarding breast restoration are made. This professional has the knowledge to interact effectively with these women and serve as their advocate during the decision-making process. Implications for professional practice and a model for competent breast restoration decision making are presented.

  10. Decision Making in Action: Applying Research to Practice

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orasanu, Judith; Hart, Sandra G. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment: Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have

  11. Ten Years, Forty Decision Aids, And Thousands Of Patient Uses: Shared Decision Making At Massachusetts General Hospital.

    PubMed

    Sepucha, Karen R; Simmons, Leigh H; Barry, Michael J; Edgman-Levitan, Susan; Licurse, Adam M; Chaguturu, Sreekanth K

    2016-04-01

    Shared decision making is a core component of population health strategies aimed at improving patient engagement. Massachusetts General Hospital's integration of shared decision making into practice has focused on the following three elements: developing a culture receptive to, and health care providers skilled in, shared decision making conversations; using patient decision aids to help inform and engage patients; and providing infrastructure and resources to support the implementation of shared decision making in practice. In the period 2005-15, more than 900 clinicians and other staff members were trained in shared decision making, and more than 28,000 orders for one of about forty patient decision aids were placed to support informed patient-centered decisions. We profile two different implementation initiatives that increased the use of patient decision aids at the hospital's eighteen adult primary care practices, and we summarize key elements of the shared decision making program.

  12. Nonrational Processes in Ethical Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rogerson, Mark D.; Gottlieb, Michael C.; Handelsman, Mitchell M.; Knapp, Samuel; Younggren, Jeffrey

    2011-01-01

    Most current ethical decision-making models provide a logical and reasoned process for making ethical judgments, but these models are empirically unproven and rely upon assumptions of rational, conscious, and quasi-legal reasoning. Such models predominate despite the fact that many nonrational factors influence ethical thought and behavior,…

  13. Use of ultrasonography to make management decisions

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Transrectal ultrasonography has been available for making management decisions since the mid 1980’s. This technology allows for the real-time visualization of internal structures (i.e. ovary and fetus) that are otherwise difficult to evaluate. The use of this technology in making reproductive manag...

  14. Persistent Dilemmas in Curriculum Decision-Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eisner, Elliot W.

    A social and educational revolution is recasting the goals and function of schooling in the United States. Because of this, the persistent dilemmas of curriculum decision-making have become more urgent. The first dilemma deals with the problem of choosing between the virtues of community control and student-initiated curriculum making and the…

  15. Whose decision is it? The microstructure of medical decision making.

    PubMed

    Whitney, Simon N

    2008-01-01

    Medical decision making is sometimes viewed as a relatively simple process in which a decision may be made by the patient, by the physician, or by both patient and physician working together. This two-dimensional portrayal eclipses the important role that others, such as other professionals, family, and friends, may play in the process; as an example of this phenomenon, we trace the evolution of a decision of a teenager with cancer who is contemplating discontinuing chemotherapy. This example also shows how a decision can usefully be understood as consisting of a number of identifiable substeps--what we call the "microstructure" of the decision. These steps show how the physician can play an important role without usurping the patient's rightful decisional authority. PMID:19209569

  16. Whose decision is it? The microstructure of medical decision making.

    PubMed

    Whitney, Simon N

    2008-01-01

    Medical decision making is sometimes viewed as a relatively simple process in which a decision may be made by the patient, by the physician, or by both patient and physician working together. This two-dimensional portrayal eclipses the important role that others, such as other professionals, family, and friends, may play in the process; as an example of this phenomenon, we trace the evolution of a decision of a teenager with cancer who is contemplating discontinuing chemotherapy. This example also shows how a decision can usefully be understood as consisting of a number of identifiable substeps--what we call the "microstructure" of the decision. These steps show how the physician can play an important role without usurping the patient's rightful decisional authority.

  17. Data Analysis and Data-Driven Decision-Making Strategies Implemented by Elementary Teachers in Selected Exited Program Improvement Safe Harbor Schools in Southern California

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Senger, Karen

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purposes of this study were to investigate and describe how elementary teachers in exited Program Improvement-Safe Harbor schools acquire student achievement data through assessments, the strategies and reflections utilized to make sense of the data to improve student achievement, ensure curriculum and instructional goals are aligned,…

  18. Making better decisions in uncertain times (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    St John, C.

    2013-12-01

    Scientific information about climate change and other human impacts on the environment are increasingly available and sought after (often in the form of probabilistic forecasts or technical information related to engineering solutions). However, it is increasingly apparent that there are barriers to the use of this information by decision makers - either from its lack of application altogether, its usability for people without scientific backgrounds, or its ability to inform sound decisions and widespread behavior change. While the argument has been made that an information deficit is to blame, we argue that there is also a motivation deficit contributing to a lack of understanding of information about climate change impacts and solutions. Utilizing insight from over thirty years of research in social and cognitive psychology, in addition to other social sciences, the Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) seeks to understand how people make environmental decisions under conditions of uncertainty, and how these decisions can be improved. This presentation will focus specifically on recent research that has come forth since the 2009 publication of CRED's popular guide 'The Psychology of Climate Change Communication: A Guide for Scientists, Journalists, Educators, Political Aides, and the Interested Public.' Utilizing case studies from real world examples, this talk will explore how decision making can be improved through a better understanding of how people perceive and process uncertainty and risk. It will explore techniques such as choice architecture and 'nudging' behavior change, how social goals and group participation affect decision making, and how framing of environmental information influences mitigative behavior.

  19. Acceptable regret in medical decision making.

    PubMed

    Djulbegovic, B; Hozo, I; Schwartz, A; McMasters, K M

    1999-09-01

    When faced with medical decisions involving uncertain outcomes, the principles of decision theory hold that we should select the option with the highest expected utility to maximize health over time. Whether a decision proves right or wrong can be learned only in retrospect, when it may become apparent that another course of action would have been preferable. This realization may bring a sense of loss, or regret. When anticipated regret is compelling, a decision maker may choose to violate expected utility theory to avoid regret. We formulate a concept of acceptable regret in medical decision making that explicitly introduces the patient's attitude toward loss of health due to a mistaken decision into decision making. In most cases, minimizing expected regret results in the same decision as maximizing expected utility. However, when acceptable regret is taken into consideration, the threshold probability below which we can comfortably withhold treatment is a function only of the net benefit of the treatment, and the threshold probability above which we can comfortably administer the treatment depends only on the magnitude of the risks associated with the therapy. By considering acceptable regret, we develop new conceptual relations that can help decide whether treatment should be withheld or administered, especially when the diagnosis is uncertain. This may be particularly beneficial in deciding what constitutes futile medical care. PMID:10580533

  20. The hidden traps in decision making.

    PubMed

    Hammond, J S; Keeney, R L; Raiffa, H

    1998-01-01

    Bad decisions can often be traced back to the way the decisions were made--the alternatives were not clearly defined, the right information was not collected, the costs and benefits were not accurately weighted. But sometimes the fault lies not in the decision-making process but rather in the mind of the decision maker. The way the human brain works can sabotage the choices we make. John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, and Howard Raiffa examine eight psychological traps that are particularly likely to affect the way we make business decisions: The anchoring trap leads us to give disproportionate weight to the first information we receive. The statusquo trap biases us toward maintaining the current situation--even when better alternatives exist. The sunk-cost trap inclines us to perpetuate the mistakes of the past. The confirming-evidence trap leads us to seek out information supporting an existing predilection and to discount opposing information. The framing trap occurs when we misstate a problem, undermining the entire decision-making process. The overconfidence trap makes us overestimate the accuracy of our forecasts. The prudence trap leads us to be overcautious when we make estimates about uncertain events. And the recallability trap leads us to give undue weight to recent, dramatic events. The best way to avoid all the traps is awareness--forewarned is forearmed. But executives can also take other simple steps to protect themselves and their organizations from the various kinds of mental lapses. The authors show how to take action to ensure that important business decisions are sound and reliable.

  1. Stereotype threat affects financial decision making.

    PubMed

    Carr, Priyanka B; Steele, Claude M

    2010-10-01

    The research presented in this article provides the first evidence that one's decision making can be influenced by concerns about stereotypes and the devaluation of one's identity. Many studies document gender differences in decision making, and often attribute these differences to innate and stable factors, such as biological and hormonal differences. In three studies, we found that stereotype threat affected decision making and led to gender differences in loss-aversion and risk-aversion behaviors. In Study 1, women subjected to stereotype threat in academic and business settings were more loss averse than both men and women who were not facing the threat of being viewed in light of negative stereotypes. We found no gender differences in loss-aversion behavior in the absence of stereotype threat. In Studies 2a and 2b, we found the same pattern of effects for risk-aversion behavior that we had observed for loss-aversion behavior. In addition, in Study 2b, ego depletion mediated the effects of stereotype threat on women's decision making. These results suggest that individuals' decision making can be influenced by stereotype concerns. PMID:20855899

  2. Stereotype threat affects financial decision making.

    PubMed

    Carr, Priyanka B; Steele, Claude M

    2010-10-01

    The research presented in this article provides the first evidence that one's decision making can be influenced by concerns about stereotypes and the devaluation of one's identity. Many studies document gender differences in decision making, and often attribute these differences to innate and stable factors, such as biological and hormonal differences. In three studies, we found that stereotype threat affected decision making and led to gender differences in loss-aversion and risk-aversion behaviors. In Study 1, women subjected to stereotype threat in academic and business settings were more loss averse than both men and women who were not facing the threat of being viewed in light of negative stereotypes. We found no gender differences in loss-aversion behavior in the absence of stereotype threat. In Studies 2a and 2b, we found the same pattern of effects for risk-aversion behavior that we had observed for loss-aversion behavior. In addition, in Study 2b, ego depletion mediated the effects of stereotype threat on women's decision making. These results suggest that individuals' decision making can be influenced by stereotype concerns.

  3. NASA Risk-Informed Decision Making Handbook

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Stamatelatos, Michael; Maggio, Gaspare; Everett, Christopher; Youngblood, Robert; Rutledge, Peter; Benjamin, Allan; Williams, Rodney; Smith, Curtis; Guarro, Sergio

    2010-01-01

    This handbook provides guidance for conducting risk-informed decision making in the context of NASA risk management (RM), with a focus on the types of direction-setting key decisions that are characteristic of the NASA program and project life cycles, and which produce derived requirements in accordance with existing systems engineering practices that flow down through the NASA organizational hierarchy. The guidance in this handbook is not meant to be prescriptive. Instead, it is meant to be general enough, and contain a sufficient diversity of examples, to enable the reader to adapt the methods as needed to the particular decision problems that he or she faces. The handbook highlights major issues to consider when making decisions in the presence of potentially significant uncertainty, so that the user is better able to recognize and avoid pitfalls that might otherwise be experienced.

  4. A framework for encouraging patient engagement in medical decision making.

    PubMed

    Holzmueller, Christine G; Wu, Albert W; Pronovost, Peter J

    2012-12-01

    Patients have a right to make decisions about their medical care because they have the most at stake. Although current social forces and policies press for greater patient participation, there is little guidance on how physicians can comply. This paper describes the current culture influencing the physician-patient relationship, offers a practical framework and strategies to physicians to engage patients in medical decision making, and discusses the implications for patient safety. We describe several barriers that make patient involvement difficult to practice, such as differences between models that define the roles of both parties in the relationship. Arguably, patients should make all medical care decisions, but there are situations when this is not feasible. Nonetheless, there is a greater imperative for patient decision making if there are multiple treatment options; if the alternatives differ relative to clinical, quality-of-life, or financial outcomes; or if there are different clinical risks and benefits. We offer 3 strategies to encourage patients to make medical decisions and suggest implications for the field of patient safety. PMID:22892584

  5. [Decision making: biological bases and limitations].

    PubMed

    Portera Sánchez, A

    2000-01-01

    In the human brain, simple molecules and complex circuits are constantly making decisions which are indispensable for our survival and also to accomplish a variety of daily activities such as walking, memorizing, conversing, composing music, painting or poetry.... All are the result of the integration of many neural systems that perceive many and simultaneous visual, tactile, auditory and/or mental stimuli. Once synthetized, they are immediately transmitted to the corresponding executive systems, thus completing the fascinating functional loop of decision-making: a) perception of stimuli or information which originate in the environment, b) selection and elaboration of the decision which is considered more appropriate or attractive according to personal experience or intuition and c) execution. If these neural nets have been damaged or haven failed to develop the mechanisms of facilitation or inhibition that govern them become unbalanced. If inhibition is reduced, excessive and violent behaviour is expressed as in patients suffering from manic phases. Conversely, if inhibition is excessive, decision making mechanisms are not operative. In either case, behaviour is not "reasonable" and does not follow prototypical patterns. All these processes must be the consequence of a constant molecular activity full of micro-decisions whose effectiveness depends on the histological and biochemical integrity of the neurons. This microenvironment is responsible for all types of decisions of all forms of life and represents one of the fundamental successes of evolution.

  6. [Kairos. Decision-making in medical ethics].

    PubMed

    Jousset, David

    2014-06-01

    This paper assesses the decision making patterns in medical ethics: the formalized pattern of decision science, the meditative pattern of an art of judgement and lastly the still-to-be-elaborated pattern of kairology or sense of the right time. The ethical decision is to be thought out in the conditions of medical action while resorting to the philosophical concepts that shed light on the issue. And it is precisely where medicine and philosophy of human action meet that the Greek notion of kairos, or "propitious moment", evokes the critical point where decision has to do with what is vital. Reflection shows that this kairos can be thought out outside the sacrificial pattern (deciding comes down to killing a possibility) by understanding the opportune moment as a sign of ethical action, as the condition for the formation of the subject (making a decision) and finally as a new relationship to time, including in the context of medical urgency. Thus with an approach to clinical ethics centred on the relation to the individual, the focus is less on the probabilistic knowledge of the decidable than on the meaning of the decision, and the undecidable comes to be accepted as an infinite dimension going beyond the limits of our acts, which makes the contingency and the grandeur of human responsibility. PMID:25272798

  7. Neural Basis of Strategic Decision Making.

    PubMed

    Lee, Daeyeol; Seo, Hyojung

    2016-01-01

    Human choice behaviors during social interactions often deviate from the predictions of game theory. This might arise partly from the limitations in the cognitive abilities necessary for recursive reasoning about the behaviors of others. In addition, during iterative social interactions, choices might change dynamically as knowledge about the intentions of others and estimates for choice outcomes are incrementally updated via reinforcement learning. Some of the brain circuits utilized during social decision making might be general-purpose and contribute to isomorphic individual and social decision making. By contrast, regions in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and temporal parietal junction (TPJ) might be recruited for cognitive processes unique to social decision making. PMID:26688301

  8. Decision making, risky behavior, and alcoholism.

    PubMed

    Camchong, Jazmin; Endres, Michael; Fein, George

    2014-01-01

    Alcoholism can be described as a disorder characterized by impulsive decision-making processes, wherein potential short-term appetitive outcomes of drinking (e.g., intoxication) are deemed more important than potential long-term aversive consequences of drinking (e.g., drunk-driving arrests). Separate but interrelated neurocognitive pathways to impulsive decision making exist - one reflected by weak "top-down" executive control over impulsive and compulsive urges to consume alcohol, the other reflected by a strong "bottom-up" appetitive drive in impulsive and compulsive urges to consume alcohol. We present behavioral evidence of poor executive control and strong appetitive drive and neural evidence describing differences in functional and organizational patterns in brain executive control and appetitive drive networks. We discuss how these behavioral and neural aspects of alcoholism are associated with impulsive decision making and risky behavior in alcoholics, and how these patterns differ at different stages of alcoholism dependence and recovery.

  9. Dynamical decision making in a genetic perceptron

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Filicheva, Svetlana; Zaikin, Alexey; Kanakov, Oleg

    2016-04-01

    Decision making is an essential element of cell functioning, which determines milestones of its evolution including differentiation, apoptosis and possible transition to cancerous state. Recently the concept of stochastic resonance in decision making (SRIDM) was introduced, demonstrated and explained using a synthetic genetic classifier circuit as an example. It manifests itself as a maximum in the dependence of classification accuracy upon noise intensity, and was caused by the concurrent action of two factors, both coarsening the classification accuracy by themselves, but found to extenuate the effect of each other: perturbation of classifier threshold and additive noise in classifier inputs. In the present work we extend the SRIDM concept to dynamical decision making, in which a classifier keeps track of the changeable input. We reproduce the stochastic resonance effect caused by noise and threshold perturbation, and demonstrate a new mechanism of SRIDM, which is associated with bistability and not connected with threshold perturbation.

  10. Collective decision-making in microbes.

    PubMed

    Ross-Gillespie, Adin; Kümmerli, Rolf

    2014-01-01

    Microbes are intensely social organisms that routinely cooperate and coordinate their activities to express elaborate population level phenotypes. Such coordination requires a process of collective decision-making, in which individuals detect and collate information not only from their physical environment, but also from their social environment, in order to arrive at an appropriately calibrated response. Here, we present a conceptual overview of collective decision-making as it applies to all group-living organisms; we introduce key concepts and principles developed in the context of animal and human group decisions; and we discuss, with appropriate examples, the applicability of each of these concepts in microbial contexts. In particular, we discuss the roles of information pooling, control skew, speed vs. accuracy trade-offs, local feedbacks, quorum thresholds, conflicts of interest, and the reliability of social information. We conclude that collective decision-making in microbes shares many features with collective decision-making in higher taxa, and we call for greater integration between this fledgling field and other allied areas of research, including in the humanities and the physical sciences.

  11. Collective decision-making in microbes

    PubMed Central

    Ross-Gillespie, Adin; Kümmerli, Rolf

    2014-01-01

    Microbes are intensely social organisms that routinely cooperate and coordinate their activities to express elaborate population level phenotypes. Such coordination requires a process of collective decision-making, in which individuals detect and collate information not only from their physical environment, but also from their social environment, in order to arrive at an appropriately calibrated response. Here, we present a conceptual overview of collective decision-making as it applies to all group-living organisms; we introduce key concepts and principles developed in the context of animal and human group decisions; and we discuss, with appropriate examples, the applicability of each of these concepts in microbial contexts. In particular, we discuss the roles of information pooling, control skew, speed vs. accuracy trade-offs, local feedbacks, quorum thresholds, conflicts of interest, and the reliability of social information. We conclude that collective decision-making in microbes shares many features with collective decision-making in higher taxa, and we call for greater integration between this fledgling field and other allied areas of research, including in the humanities and the physical sciences. PMID:24624121

  12. Making Connections in School Reform: An Examination of Communication Strategies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meyers, Joel; And Others

    Many recent educational reform efforts are based on the active involvement of administrators, educators, parents, and community members, all stakeholders in decision making. This paper presents findings of a study that investigated communication strategies used by shared decision-making teams in a small suburban school district in New York State…

  13. Reproductive health decision making among Ghanaian women

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Women’s reproductive health decision-making and choices, including engaging in sexual intercourse and condom use, are essential for good reproductive health. However, issues concerning sexual intercourse and condom use are shrouded in secrecy in many sub-Saharan African countries. This study investigates factors that affect decision making on engaging in sexual intercourse and use of condom among women aged 15–49. Method A nationally representative sample (N = 3124) data collected in the 2008 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey was used. Multivariate logistic regression was used to study the association between women’s economic and socio-demographic characteristics and their decision making on engaging in sexual intercourse and use of condom. Results One out of five women reported that they could not refuse their partners’ request for sexual intercourse while one out of four indicated that they could not demand the use of condoms by their partners. Women aged 35–49 were more likely to make decision on engaging in sexual intercourse (OR = 1.35) compared to those aged 15–24. Furthermore, the higher a woman’s education, the more likely that she would make decision regarding condom use. Also, if a woman had primary (OR = 1.37) or secondary (OR = 1.55) education, she is more likely to make decision regarding engaging in sexual intercourse compared to a woman who had no formal education. Compared to women in the Greater Accra region (the capital city region), women in the Western region (OR = 2.10), Central region (OR = 2.35), Brong Ahafo (OR = 1.70), Upper East (OR = 7.71) and Upper West (OR = 3.56) were more likely to make decision regarding the use of condom. Women who were in the richest, rich and middle wealth index categories were more likely to make decision regarding engaging in sexual intercourse as well as condom use compared to the poorest. Conclusion Interventions and policies geared at empowering

  14. Computer modeling of human decision making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gevarter, William B.

    1991-01-01

    Models of human decision making are reviewed. Models which treat just the cognitive aspects of human behavior are included as well as models which include motivation. Both models which have associated computer programs, and those that do not, are considered. Since flow diagrams, that assist in constructing computer simulation of such models, were not generally available, such diagrams were constructed and are presented. The result provides a rich source of information, which can aid in construction of more realistic future simulations of human decision making.

  15. Magellan's Shopping List: A Lesson in Decision Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lankiewicz, Donald

    1985-01-01

    Presents a lesson strategy in which students encounter the simulated decision making situation of having to help Ferdinand Magellan plan and choose the food for his voyage around the world in 1519. It is demonstrated that this simulation combines knowledge of geography with economics, health science, and consumer awareness. (MBR)

  16. Navigational decision-making in Drosophila thermotaxis

    PubMed Central

    Luo, Linjiao; Gershow, Marc; Rosenzweig, Mark; Kang, KyeongJin; Fang-Yen, Christopher; Garrity, Paul A.; Samuel, Aravinthan

    2010-01-01

    A mechanistic understanding of animal navigation requires quantitative assessment of the sensorimotor strategies used during navigation and quantitative assessment of how these strategies are regulated by cellular sensors. Here, we examine thermotactic behavior of the Drosophila melanogaster larva using a tracking microscope to study individual larval movements on defined temperature gradients. We discover that larval thermotaxis involves a larger repertoire of strategies than navigation in smaller organisms such as motile bacteria and C. elegans. Beyond regulating run length (i.e., biasing a random walk), the Drosophila melanogaster larva also regulates the size and direction of turns to achieve and maintain favorable orientations. Thus, the sharp turns in a larva's trajectory represent decision points for selecting new directions of forward movement. The larva uses the same strategies to move up temperature gradients during positive thermotaxis and to move down temperature gradients during negative thermotaxis. Disrupting positive thermotaxis by inactivating cold-sensitive neurons in the larva's terminal organ weakens all regulation of turning decisions, suggesting that information from one set of temperature sensors is used to regulate all aspects of turning decisions. The Drosophila melanogaster larva performs thermotaxis by biasing stochastic turning decisions on the basis of temporal variations in thermosensory input, thereby augmenting the likelihood of heading towards favorable temperatures at all times. PMID:20335462

  17. How Decisions Emerge: Action Dynamics in Intertemporal Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dshemuchadse, Maja; Scherbaum, Stefan; Goschke, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    In intertemporal decision making, individuals prefer smaller rewards delivered sooner over larger rewards delivered later, often to an extent that seems irrational from an economical perspective. This behavior has been attributed to a lack of self-control and reflection, the nonlinearity of human time perception, and several other sources.…

  18. Shared decision making, paternalism and patient choice.

    PubMed

    Sandman, Lars; Munthe, Christian

    2010-03-01

    In patient centred care, shared decision making is a central feature and widely referred to as a norm for patient centred medical consultation. However, it is far from clear how to distinguish SDM from standard models and ideals for medical decision making, such as paternalism and patient choice, and e.g., whether paternalism and patient choice can involve a greater degree of the sort of sharing involved in SDM and still retain their essential features. In the article, different versions of SDM are explored, versions compatible with paternalism and patient choice as well as versions that go beyond these traditional decision making models. Whenever SDM is discussed or introduced it is of importance to be clear over which of these different versions are being pursued, since they connect to basic values and ideals of health care in different ways. It is further argued that we have reason to pursue versions of SDM involving, what is called, a high level dynamics in medical decision-making. This leaves four alternative models to choose between depending on how we balance between the values of patient best interest, patient autonomy, and an effective decision in terms of patient compliance or adherence: Shared Rational Deliberative Patient Choice, Shared Rational Deliberative Paternalism, Shared Rational Deliberative Joint Decision, and Professionally Driven Best Interest Compromise. In relation to these models it is argued that we ideally should use the Shared Rational Deliberative Joint Decision model. However, when the patient and professional fail to reach consensus we will have reason to pursue the Professionally Driven Best Interest Compromise model since this will best harmonise between the different values at stake: patient best interest, patient autonomy, patient adherence and a continued care relationship.

  19. Visually Guided Decision Making in Foraging Honeybees

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Shaowu; Si, Aung; Pahl, Mario

    2012-01-01

    Honeybees can easily be trained to perform different types of discrimination tasks under controlled laboratory conditions. This review describes a range of experiments carried out with free-flying forager honeybees under such conditions. The research done over the past 30 or so years suggests that cognitive abilities (learning and perception) in insects are more intricate and flexible than was originally imagined. It has become apparent that honeybees are capable of a variety of visually guided tasks, involving decision making under challenging situations: this includes simultaneously making use of different sensory modalities, such as vision and olfaction, and learning to use abstract concepts such as “sameness” and “difference.” Many studies have shown that decision making in foraging honeybees is highly flexible. The trained animals learn how to solve a task, and do so with a high accuracy, but when they are presented with a new variation of the task, they apply the learnt rules from the earlier setup to the new situation, and solve the new task as well. Honeybees therefore not only feature a rich behavioral repertoire to choose from, but also make decisions most apt to the current situation. The experiments in this review give an insight into the environmental cues and cognitive resources that are probably highly significant for a forager bee that must continually make decisions regarding patches of resources to be exploited. PMID:22719721

  20. Motivations Underlying Career Decision-Making Activities: The Career Decision-Making Autonomy Scale (CDMAS)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Guay, Frederic

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of the present research was to develop and validate a measure of motivation toward career decision-making activities, the Career Decision-Making Autonomy Scale (CDMAS). The CDMAS is designed to assess the constructs of intrinsic motivation, identified regulation, introjected regulation, and external regulation. A longitudinal study was…

  1. Helping novice nurses make effective clinical decisions: the situated clinical decision-making framework.

    PubMed

    Gillespie, Mary; Peterson, Barbara L

    2009-01-01

    The nature of novice nurses' clinical decision-making has been well documented as linear, based on limited knowledge and experience in the profession, and frequently focused on single tasks or problems. Theorists suggest that, with sufficient experience in the clinical setting, novice nurses will move from reliance on abstract principles to the application of concrete experience and to view a clinical situation within its context and as a whole. In the current health care environment, novice nurses frequently work with few clinical supports and mentors while facing complex patient situations that demand skilled decision-making. The Situated Clinical Decision-Making Framework is presented for use by educators and novice nurses to support development of clinical decision-making. It provides novice nurses with a tool that a) assists them in making decisions; b) can be used to guide retrospective reflection on decision-making processes and outcomes; c) socializes them to an understanding of the nature of decision-making in nursing; and d) fosters the development of their knowledge, skill, and confidence as nurses. This article provides an overview of the framework, including its theoretical foundations and a schematic representation of its components. A case exemplar illustrates one application of the framework in assisting novice nurses in developing their decision-making skills. Future directions regarding the use and study of this framework in nursing education are considered.

  2. Career Planning and Decision-Making for College. AEL Career Decision-Making Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McKnight, Lola, Ed.

    Six course units and learning activities for the Career Planning and Decision-Making course is presented. The course emphasizes career comprehension, career values, and career action. Career comprehension includes developing knowledge of the world of work and planning and decision-making skills. Career values focus on clarifying, identifying, and…

  3. Collective decision making in bacterial viruses.

    PubMed

    Weitz, Joshua S; Mileyko, Yuriy; Joh, Richard I; Voit, Eberhard O

    2008-09-15

    For many bacterial viruses, the choice of whether to kill host cells or enter a latent state depends on the multiplicity of coinfection. Here, we present a mathematical theory of how bacterial viruses can make collective decisions concerning the fate of infected cells. We base our theory on mechanistic models of gene regulatory dynamics. Unlike most previous work, we treat the copy number of viral genes as variable. Increasing the viral copy number increases the rate of transcription of viral mRNAs. When viral regulation of cell fate includes nonlinear feedback loops, very small changes in transcriptional rates can lead to dramatic changes in steady-state gene expression. Hence, we prove that deterministic decisions can be reached, e.g., lysis or latency, depending on the cellular multiplicity of infection within a broad class of gene regulatory models of viral decision-making. Comparisons of a parameterized version of the model with molecular studies of the decision structure in the temperate bacteriophage lambda are consistent with our conclusions. Because the model is general, it suggests that bacterial viruses can respond adaptively to changes in population dynamics, and that features of collective decision-making in viruses are evolvable life history traits.

  4. Making business decisions using trend information

    SciTech Connect

    Prevette, S.S., Westinghouse Hanford, Richland, WA

    1997-11-24

    Performance Measures, and the trend information that results from their analyses, can help managers in their decision making process. The business decisions that are to be discussed are: Assignment of limited Resources, Funding, Budget; Contractor Rewards/Incentives; Where to focus Process Improvement, Reengineering efforts; When to ask ``What Happened?!!``; Determine if a previous decision was effectively implemented. Trending can provide an input for rational Business Decisions. Key Element is determination of whether or not a significant trend exists - segregating Common Cause from Special Cause. The Control Chart is the tool for accomplishment of trending and determining if you are meeting your Business Objectives. Eliminate Numerical Targets; the goal is Significant Improvement. Profound Knowledge requires integrating data results with gut feeling.

  5. Decision Making in Health and Medicine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hunink, Myriam; Glasziou, Paul; Siegel, Joanna; Weeks, Jane; Pliskin, Joseph; Elstein, Arthur; Weinstein, Milton C.

    2001-11-01

    Decision making in health care means navigating through a complex and tangled web of diagnostic and therapeutic uncertainties, patient preferences and values, and costs. In addition, medical therapies may include side effects, surgery may lead to undesirable complications, and diagnostic technologies may produce inconclusive results. In many clinical and health policy decisions it is necessary to counterbalance benefits and risks, and to trade off competing objectives such as maximizing life expectancy vs optimizing quality of life vs minimizing the required resources. This textbook plots a clear course through these complex and conflicting variables. It clearly explains and illustrates tools for integrating quantitative evidence-based data and subjective outcome values in making clinical and health policy decisions. An accompanying CD-ROM features solutions to the exercises, PowerPoint® presentations of the illustrations, and sample models and tables.

  6. How Expert Advice Influences Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Meshi, Dar; Biele, Guido; Korn, Christoph W.; Heekeren, Hauke R.

    2012-01-01

    People often use expert advice when making decisions in our society, but how we are influenced by this advice has yet to be understood. To address this, using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we provided expert and novice advice to participants during an estimation task. Participants reported that they valued expert advice more than novice advice, and activity in the ventral striatum correlated with this valuation, even before decisions with the advice were made. When using advice, participants compared their initial opinion to their advisor’s opinion. This comparison, termed the “opinion difference”, influenced advice utilization and was represented in reward-sensitive brain regions. Finally, the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex integrated both the size of the opinion difference and the advisor’s level of expertise, and average activity in this area correlated with mean advice utilization across participants. Taken together, these findings provide neural evidence for how advice engenders behavioral change during the decision-making process. PMID:23185425

  7. Deep Rationality: The Evolutionary Economics of Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Kenrick, Douglas T.; Griskevicius, Vladas; Sundie, Jill M.; Li, Norman P.; Li, Yexin Jessica; Neuberg, Steven L.

    2009-01-01

    What is a “rational” decision? Economists traditionally viewed rationality as maximizing expected satisfaction. This view has been useful in modeling basic microeconomic concepts, but falls short in accounting for many everyday human decisions. It leaves unanswered why some things reliably make people more satisfied than others, and why people frequently act to make others happy at a cost to themselves. Drawing on an evolutionary perspective, we propose that people make decisions according to a set of principles that may not appear to make sense at the superficial level, but that demonstrate rationality at a deeper evolutionary level. By this, we mean that people use adaptive domain-specific decision-rules that, on average, would have resulted in fitness benefits. Using this framework, we re-examine several economic principles. We suggest that traditional psychological functions governing risk aversion, discounting of future benefits, and budget allocations to multiple goods, for example, vary in predictable ways as a function of the underlying motive of the decision-maker and individual differences linked to evolved life-history strategies. A deep rationality framework not only helps explain why people make the decisions they do, but also inspires multiple directions for future research. PMID:20686634

  8. Medical Decision-Making by Psychiatry Residents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    El-Mallakh, Rif; Zinner, Jill; Mackey, Amanda; Tamas, Rebecca L.; Martin, Chanley M.; Dalton, Jerad; Dhaliwal, Nitu; Luddington, Nicole; Numan, Farhad U.; Nunes, Ross; Taylor, Stephen; Ye, Lu

    2007-01-01

    Objective: Several conspiring factors have resulted in an increase in the level of medical burden in psychiatric patients. Psychiatry residents require increasing levels of medical sophistication. To assess the medical decision-making of psychiatry residents, the authors examined the outcome in subjects initially seen in the emergency psychiatric…

  9. Decision Making and Systems Thinking: Educational Issues

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yurtseven, M. Kudret; Buchanan, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Decision making in most universities is taught within the conventional OR/MS (Operations Research/Management Science) paradigm. This paradigm is known to be "hard" since it is consisted of mathematical tools, and normally suitable for solving structured problems. In complex situations the conventional OR/MS paradigm proves to be…

  10. Rational decision-making in inhibitory control.

    PubMed

    Shenoy, Pradeep; Yu, Angela J

    2011-01-01

    An important aspect of cognitive flexibility is inhibitory control, the ability to dynamically modify or cancel planned actions in response to changes in the sensory environment or task demands. We formulate a probabilistic, rational decision-making framework for inhibitory control in the stop signal paradigm. Our model posits that subjects maintain a Bayes-optimal, continually updated representation of sensory inputs, and repeatedly assess the relative value of stopping and going on a fine temporal scale, in order to make an optimal decision on when and whether to go on each trial. We further posit that they implement this continual evaluation with respect to a global objective function capturing the various reward and penalties associated with different behavioral outcomes, such as speed and accuracy, or the relative costs of stop errors and go errors. We demonstrate that our rational decision-making model naturally gives rise to basic behavioral characteristics consistently observed for this paradigm, as well as more subtle effects due to contextual factors such as reward contingencies or motivational factors. Furthermore, we show that the classical race model can be seen as a computationally simpler, perhaps neurally plausible, approximation to optimal decision-making. This conceptual link allows us to predict how the parameters of the race model, such as the stopping latency, should change with task parameters and individual experiences/ability.

  11. SERVIR: Environmental Decision Making in the Americas

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lapenta, William; Irwin, Dan

    2008-01-01

    SERVIR is a regional visualization and monitoring system for Mesoamerica that integrates satellite and other geospatial data for improved scientific knowledge and decision making by managers, researchers, students, and the general public. SERVIR addresses the nine societal benefit areas of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). This talk will provide an overview of products and services available through SERVIR.

  12. Consumer Decision Making in a Global Context.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lusby, Linda A.

    This document examines the underlying rationale for the development of a global approach in consumer studies. The concept of consumer ethics is discussed and the consumer decision-making process is placed within an ecosystem perspective of the marketplace. The model developed introduces educators, marketers, and consumers to a more global…

  13. Information in Educational Decision Making in Greece.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kassimati, Koula

    This Unesco report, one in a series, examines the sources of data used in educational decision making in Greece and proposes innovations in the information system to promote educational planning. The main source of quantitative data is the National Statistical Service of Greece which regularly publishes data concerned with all educational levels.…

  14. Optimal Decision Making in Neural Inhibition Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van Ravenzwaaij, Don; van der Maas, Han L. J.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2012-01-01

    In their influential "Psychological Review" article, Bogacz, Brown, Moehlis, Holmes, and Cohen (2006) discussed optimal decision making as accomplished by the drift diffusion model (DDM). The authors showed that neural inhibition models, such as the leaky competing accumulator model (LCA) and the feedforward inhibition model (FFI), can mimic the…

  15. New Paradoxes of Risky Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Birnbaum, Michael H.

    2008-01-01

    During the last 25 years, prospect theory and its successor, cumulative prospect theory, replaced expected utility as the dominant descriptive theories of risky decision making. Although these models account for the original Allais paradoxes, 11 new paradoxes show where prospect theories lead to self-contradiction or systematic false predictions.…

  16. Participative Decision Making: An Annotated Bibliography.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Henson, Ramon; Camp, Richaurd

    An annotated bibliography of 40 articles on participative decision making (PDM) published from 1968 through 1975 is presented. The following categories were used in summarizing each article: description, sample, type of study, variables, PDM variables, results and discussion. An introduction to the bibliography discusses some issues related to…

  17. Pilot Decision-Making in Irreversible Emergencies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Winter, Scott R.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine if a reflexive learning treatment utilizing select case studies could enhance the decision-making of pilots who encounter an irreversible emergency. Participants, who consisted of members of the subject university's professional pilot program, were divided into either a control or experimental group and…

  18. Personal Decision Making. Focus on Economics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leet, Don R.; Charkins, R. J.; Lang, Nancy A.; Lopus, Jane S.; Tamaribuchi, Gail

    This book highlights and examines basic economic concepts as they relate to consumer, business, social, and personal choices. Students are shown connections between their classroom learning and their real-world experiences in budgeting, career planning, credit management, and housing. The set of 15 lessons include: (1) "Decision Making: Scarcity,…

  19. Conflict Management and Decision Making. Symposium.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    2002

    This symposium on conflict management and decision making is comprised of three papers. "Two Approaches to Conflict Management in Teams: A Case Study" (Mychal Coleman, Gary N. McLean) describes a study that provided conflict management training to two employee teams using the traditional lecture method and cooperative learning (CL). (Initially,…

  20. Nature of Science and Decision-Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Khishfe, Rola

    2012-01-01

    The study investigated the relationship of nature of science (NOS) instruction and students' decision-making (DM) related to a controversial socioscientific issue about genetically modified food. Participants were ninth-grade students in four intact sections (two regulars and two honors) in a public high school in the Midwest. All four groups were…

  1. Supporting Medical Decision Making with Argumentation Tools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lu, Jingyan; Lajoie, Susanne P.

    2008-01-01

    This study investigated the collaborative decision-making and communicative discourse of groups of learners engaged in a simulated medical emergency in two conditions. In one condition subgroups used a traditional whiteboard (TW group) to document medical arguments on how to solve a medical emergency. In the other condition subgroups used…

  2. Speed versus accuracy in collective decision making.

    PubMed

    Franks, Nigel R; Dornhaus, Anna; Fitzsimmons, Jon P; Stevens, Martin

    2003-12-01

    We demonstrate a speed versus accuracy trade-off in collective decision making. House-hunting ant colonies choose a new nest more quickly in harsh conditions than in benign ones and are less discriminating. The errors that occur in a harsh environment are errors of judgement not errors of omission because the colonies have discovered all of the alternative nests before they initiate an emigration. Leptothorax albipennis ants use quorum sensing in their house hunting. They only accept a nest, and begin rapidly recruiting members of their colony, when they find within it a sufficient number of their nest-mates. Here we show that these ants can lower their quorum thresholds between benign and harsh conditions to adjust their speed-accuracy trade-off. Indeed, in harsh conditions these ants rely much more on individual decision making than collective decision making. Our findings show that these ants actively choose to take their time over judgements and employ collective decision making in benign conditions when accuracy is more important than speed.

  3. Regents Make History: The DNA Decision

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gies, Joseph C.

    1977-01-01

    A routine-sounding request for a science lab renovation grew into a controversy with immense implications: Is DNA research safe? Does it belong on campus? Is it beyond human capacity to control? The decision-making role of the University of Michigan regents is described. (Editor/LBH)

  4. Pupil Decision Making in the Reading Curriculum.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ediger, Marlow

    Being able to make decisions is important for all students. Students need to have opportunities to choose from among alternative situations. Reading, as one curriculum area, provides a plethora of opportunities to choose and to select. The philosopher John Locke believed the following facets of an individual's development were in the ensuing order…

  5. Emerging Educational Institutional Decision-Making Matrix

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ashford-Rowe, Kevin H.; Holt, Marnie

    2011-01-01

    The "emerging educational institutional decision-making matrix" is developed to allow educational institutions to adopt a rigorous and consistent methodology of determining which of the myriad of emerging educational technologies will be the most compelling for the institution, particularly ensuring that it is the educational or pedagogical but…

  6. Decision-Making Theory and University Advancement.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wims, Warner Barry

    There are a number of constraints on administrative leadership in today's university. This paper argues that the decision-making theory of March, Simon, and Cyert gives the administrator a good framework for advancing the university toward meeting societal needs and demands, while allowing for faculty-student freedom and discretion. Some…

  7. Career Decision-Making and Corporate Responsibility

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sainty, Rosemary

    2008-01-01

    This paper seeks to investigate the extent of influence of corporate (or organisational) responsibility on university students' career decision-making. It reports on a pilot study conducted at the University of Sydney which aims to: explore students' ethical, professional and social understanding regarding corporate responsibility; determine the…

  8. Decision-Making Processes of Youth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moore, J. William; And Others

    1990-01-01

    Undergraduates (n=142) participated in study on decision making in which prospective administrators made monetary commitments to long-term goals under varying conditions. Found significant negative correlation between anxiety level and commitments to previously chosen courses of action; no significant effects of job security on commitment; and…

  9. Decision Making in Computer-Simulated Experiments.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Suits, J. P.; Lagowski, J. J.

    A set of interactive, computer-simulated experiments was designed to respond to the large range of individual differences in aptitude and reasoning ability generally exhibited by students enrolled in first-semester general chemistry. These experiments give students direct experience in the type of decision making needed in an experimental setting.…

  10. Student decision making in large group discussion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kustusch, Mary Bridget; Ptak, Corey; Sayre, Eleanor C.; Franklin, Scott V.

    2015-04-01

    It is increasingly common in physics classes for students to work together to solve problems and perform laboratory experiments. When students work together, they need to negotiate the roles and decision making within the group. We examine how a large group of students negotiates authority as part of their two week summer College Readiness Program at Rochester Institute of Technology. The program is designed to develop metacognitive skills in first generation and Deaf and hard-of-hearing (DHH) STEM undergraduates through cooperative group work, laboratory experimentation, and explicit reflection exercises. On the first full day of the program, the students collaboratively developed a sign for the word ``metacognition'' for which there is not a sign in American Sign Language. This presentation will focus on three aspects of the ensuing discussion: (1) how the instructor communicated expectations about decision making; (2) how the instructor promoted student-driven decision making rather than instructor-driven policy; and (3) one student's shifts in decision making behavior. We conclude by discussing implications of this research for activity-based physics instruction.

  11. Neurally Constrained Modeling of Perceptual Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Purcell, Braden A.; Heitz, Richard P.; Cohen, Jeremiah Y.; Schall, Jeffrey D.; Logan, Gordon D.; Palmeri, Thomas J.

    2010-01-01

    Stochastic accumulator models account for response time in perceptual decision-making tasks by assuming that perceptual evidence accumulates to a threshold. The present investigation mapped the firing rate of frontal eye field (FEF) visual neurons onto perceptual evidence and the firing rate of FEF movement neurons onto evidence accumulation to…

  12. Speed versus accuracy in collective decision making.

    PubMed Central

    Franks, Nigel R; Dornhaus, Anna; Fitzsimmons, Jon P; Stevens, Martin

    2003-01-01

    We demonstrate a speed versus accuracy trade-off in collective decision making. House-hunting ant colonies choose a new nest more quickly in harsh conditions than in benign ones and are less discriminating. The errors that occur in a harsh environment are errors of judgement not errors of omission because the colonies have discovered all of the alternative nests before they initiate an emigration. Leptothorax albipennis ants use quorum sensing in their house hunting. They only accept a nest, and begin rapidly recruiting members of their colony, when they find within it a sufficient number of their nest-mates. Here we show that these ants can lower their quorum thresholds between benign and harsh conditions to adjust their speed-accuracy trade-off. Indeed, in harsh conditions these ants rely much more on individual decision making than collective decision making. Our findings show that these ants actively choose to take their time over judgements and employ collective decision making in benign conditions when accuracy is more important than speed. PMID:14667335

  13. Making Data-Driven Decisions: Silent Reading

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trudel, Heidi

    2007-01-01

    Due in part to conflicting opinions and research results, the practice of sustained silent reading (SSR) in schools has been questioned. After a frustrating experience with SSR, the author of this article began a data-driven decision-making process to gain new insights on how to structure silent reading in a classroom, including a comparison…

  14. Cost Utility: An Aid to Decision Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Costa, Crist H.

    A set of procedures were developed which assist in structuring tasks and objectives in a manner to permit rational decision making. The model uses a jury of experts to rank various objectives and program processes in terms of their importance. Values are generated which relate to costs in the form of a utility-cost ratio. The model was tested in a…

  15. Computers Help Students Make Wise Career Decisions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gerardi, Robert J.; And Others

    1984-01-01

    Discusses advantages and disadvantages of utilizing computer information systems in making career and educational alternatives decisions, describes three types of computer-based guidance systems currently available, and describes three direct inquiry systems with monitoring--Educational and Career Exploration System, System of Interactive Guidance…

  16. Mixing Methods in Assessing Coaches' Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vergeer, Ineke; Lyle, John

    2007-01-01

    Mixing methods has recently achieved respectability as an appropriate approach to research design, offering a variety of advantages (Tashakkori & Teddlie, 2003). The purpose of this paper is to outline and evaluate a mixed methods approach within the domain of coaches' decision making. Illustrated with data from a policy-capturing study on…

  17. International Students Decision-Making Process

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cubillo, Jose Maria; Sanchez, Joaquin; Cervino, Julio

    2006-01-01

    Purpose--The purpose of this paper is to propose a theoretical model that integrates the different groups of factors which influence the decision-making process of international students, analysing different dimensions of this process and explaining those factors which determine students' choice. Design/methodology/approach--A hypothetical model…

  18. Entrustment Decision Making in Clinical Training.

    PubMed

    Ten Cate, Olle; Hart, Danielle; Ankel, Felix; Busari, Jamiu; Englander, Robert; Glasgow, Nicholas; Holmboe, Eric; Iobst, William; Lovell, Elise; Snell, Linda S; Touchie, Claire; Van Melle, Elaine; Wycliffe-Jones, Keith

    2016-02-01

    The decision to trust a medical trainee with the critical responsibility to care for a patient is fundamental to clinical training. When carefully and deliberately made, such decisions can serve as significant stimuli for learning and also shape the assessment of trainees. Holding back entrustment decisions too much may hamper the trainee's development toward unsupervised practice. When carelessly made, however, they jeopardize patient safety. Entrustment decision-making processes, therefore, deserve careful analysis.Members (including the authors) of the International Competency-Based Medical Education Collaborative conducted a content analysis of the entrustment decision-making process in health care training during a two-day summit in September 2013 and subsequently reviewed the pertinent literature to arrive at a description of the critical features of this process, which informs this article.The authors discuss theoretical backgrounds and terminology of trust and entrustment in the clinical workplace. The competency-based movement and the introduction of entrustable professional activities force educators to rethink the grounds for assessment in the workplace. Anticipating a decision to grant autonomy at a designated level of supervision appears to align better with health care practice than do most current assessment practices. The authors distinguish different modes of trust and entrustment decisions and elaborate five categories, each with related factors, that determine when decisions to trust trainees are made: the trainee, supervisor, situation, task, and the relationship between trainee and supervisor. The authors' aim in this article is to lay a theoretical foundation for a new approach to workplace training and assessment. PMID:26630606

  19. Toward an Expanded Definition of Adaptive Decision Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Phillips, Susan D.

    1997-01-01

    Uses the lifespan, life-space model to examine the definition of adaptive decision making. Reviews the existing definition of adaptive decision making as "rational" decision making and offers alternate perspectives on decision making with an emphasis on the implications of using the model. Makes suggestions for future theory, research, and…

  20. What you don't know about making decisions.

    PubMed

    Garvin, D A; Roberto, M A

    2001-09-01

    Most executives think of decision making as a singular event that occurs at a particular point in time. In reality, though, decision making is a process fraught with power plays, politics, personal nuances, and institutional history. Leaders who recognize this make far better decisions than those who persevere in the fantasy that decisions are events they alone control. That said, some decision-making processes are far more effective than others. Most often, participants use an advocacy process, possibly the least productive way to get things done. They view decision making as a contest, arguing passionately for their preferred solutions, presenting information selectively, withholding relevant conflicting data so they can make a convincing case, and standing firm against opposition. Much more powerful is an inquiry process, in which people consider a variety of options and work together to discover the best solution. Moving from advocacy to inquiry requires careful attention to three critical factors: fostering constructive, rather than personal, conflict; making sure everyone knows that their viewpoints are given serious consideration even if they are not ultimately accepted; and knowing when to bring deliberations to a close. The authors discuss in detail strategies for moving from an advocacy to an inquiry process, as well as for fostering productive conflict, true consideration, and timely closure. And they offer a framework for assessing the effectiveness of your process while you're still in the middle of it. Decision making is a job that lies at the very heart of leadership and one that requires a genius for balance: the ability to embrace the divergence that may characterize early discussions and to forge the unity needed for effective implementation. PMID:11550627

  1. What you don't know about making decisions.

    PubMed

    Garvin, D A; Roberto, M A

    2001-09-01

    Most executives think of decision making as a singular event that occurs at a particular point in time. In reality, though, decision making is a process fraught with power plays, politics, personal nuances, and institutional history. Leaders who recognize this make far better decisions than those who persevere in the fantasy that decisions are events they alone control. That said, some decision-making processes are far more effective than others. Most often, participants use an advocacy process, possibly the least productive way to get things done. They view decision making as a contest, arguing passionately for their preferred solutions, presenting information selectively, withholding relevant conflicting data so they can make a convincing case, and standing firm against opposition. Much more powerful is an inquiry process, in which people consider a variety of options and work together to discover the best solution. Moving from advocacy to inquiry requires careful attention to three critical factors: fostering constructive, rather than personal, conflict; making sure everyone knows that their viewpoints are given serious consideration even if they are not ultimately accepted; and knowing when to bring deliberations to a close. The authors discuss in detail strategies for moving from an advocacy to an inquiry process, as well as for fostering productive conflict, true consideration, and timely closure. And they offer a framework for assessing the effectiveness of your process while you're still in the middle of it. Decision making is a job that lies at the very heart of leadership and one that requires a genius for balance: the ability to embrace the divergence that may characterize early discussions and to forge the unity needed for effective implementation.

  2. Familiarity and recollection in heuristic decision making.

    PubMed

    Schwikert, Shane R; Curran, Tim

    2014-12-01

    Heuristics involve the ability to utilize memory to make quick judgments by exploiting fundamental cognitive abilities. In the current study we investigated the memory processes that contribute to the recognition heuristic and the fluency heuristic, which are both presumed to capitalize on the byproducts of memory to make quick decisions. In Experiment 1, we used a city-size comparison task while recording event-related potentials (ERPs) to investigate the potential contributions of familiarity and recollection to the 2 heuristics. ERPs were markedly different for recognition heuristic-based decisions and fluency heuristic-based decisions, suggesting a role for familiarity in the recognition heuristic and recollection in the fluency heuristic. In Experiment 2, we coupled the same city-size comparison task with measures of subjective preexperimental memory for each stimulus in the task. Although previous literature suggests the fluency heuristic relies on recognition speed alone, our results suggest differential contributions of recognition speed and recollected knowledge to these decisions, whereas the recognition heuristic relies on familiarity. Based on these results, we created a new theoretical framework that explains decisions attributed to both heuristics based on the underlying memory associated with the choice options. PMID:25347534

  3. Integrated Traffic Flow Management Decision Making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grabbe, Shon R.; Sridhar, Banavar; Mukherjee, Avijit

    2009-01-01

    A generalized approach is proposed to support integrated traffic flow management decision making studies at both the U.S. national and regional levels. It can consider tradeoffs between alternative optimization and heuristic based models, strategic versus tactical flight controls, and system versus fleet preferences. Preliminary testing was accomplished by implementing thirteen unique traffic flow management models, which included all of the key components of the system and conducting 85, six-hour fast-time simulation experiments. These experiments considered variations in the strategic planning look-ahead times, the replanning intervals, and the types of traffic flow management control strategies. Initial testing indicates that longer strategic planning look-ahead times and re-planning intervals result in steadily decreasing levels of sector congestion for a fixed delay level. This applies when accurate estimates of the air traffic demand, airport capacities and airspace capacities are available. In general, the distribution of the delays amongst the users was found to be most equitable when scheduling flights using a heuristic scheduling algorithm, such as ration-by-distance. On the other hand, equity was the worst when using scheduling algorithms that took into account the number of seats aboard each flight. Though the scheduling algorithms were effective at alleviating sector congestion, the tactical rerouting algorithm was the primary control for avoiding en route weather hazards. Finally, the modeled levels of sector congestion, the number of weather incursions, and the total system delays, were found to be in fair agreement with the values that were operationally observed on both good and bad weather days.

  4. Nicotinic alteration of decision-making.

    PubMed

    Naudé, Jérémie; Dongelmans, Malou; Faure, Philippe

    2015-09-01

    Addiction to nicotine is characterized by impulses, urges and lack of self-control towards cigarettes. A key element in the process of addiction is the development of habits oriented towards nicotine consumption that surpass flexible systems as a consequence of a gradual adaptation to chronic drug exposure. However, the long-term effects of nicotine on brain circuits also induce wide changes in decision-making processes, affecting behaviors unrelated to cigarettes. This review aims at providing an update on the implications of nicotine on general decision-making processes, with an emphasis on impulsivity and risk-taking. As impulsivity is a rather ambiguous behavioral trait, we build on economic and normative theories to better characterize these nicotine-induced alterations in decision-making. Nonetheless, experimental data are sparse and often contradictory. We will discuss how the latest findings on the neurobiological basis of choice behavior may help disentangling these issues. We focus on the role of nicotine acetylcholine receptors and their different subunits, and on the spatio-temporal dynamics (i.e. diversity of the neural circuits, short- and long-term effects) of both endogenous acetylcholine and nicotine action. Finally, we try to link these neurobiological results with neuro-computational models of attention, valuation and action, and of the role of acetylcholine in these decision processes. This article is part of the Special Issue entitled 'The Nicotinic Acetylcholine Receptor: From Molecular Biology to Cognition'. PMID:25498234

  5. Nicotinic alteration of decision-making.

    PubMed

    Naudé, Jérémie; Dongelmans, Malou; Faure, Philippe

    2015-09-01

    Addiction to nicotine is characterized by impulses, urges and lack of self-control towards cigarettes. A key element in the process of addiction is the development of habits oriented towards nicotine consumption that surpass flexible systems as a consequence of a gradual adaptation to chronic drug exposure. However, the long-term effects of nicotine on brain circuits also induce wide changes in decision-making processes, affecting behaviors unrelated to cigarettes. This review aims at providing an update on the implications of nicotine on general decision-making processes, with an emphasis on impulsivity and risk-taking. As impulsivity is a rather ambiguous behavioral trait, we build on economic and normative theories to better characterize these nicotine-induced alterations in decision-making. Nonetheless, experimental data are sparse and often contradictory. We will discuss how the latest findings on the neurobiological basis of choice behavior may help disentangling these issues. We focus on the role of nicotine acetylcholine receptors and their different subunits, and on the spatio-temporal dynamics (i.e. diversity of the neural circuits, short- and long-term effects) of both endogenous acetylcholine and nicotine action. Finally, we try to link these neurobiological results with neuro-computational models of attention, valuation and action, and of the role of acetylcholine in these decision processes. This article is part of the Special Issue entitled 'The Nicotinic Acetylcholine Receptor: From Molecular Biology to Cognition'.

  6. Nature of Science and Decision-Making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khishfe, Rola

    2012-01-01

    The study investigated the relationship of nature of science (NOS) instruction and students' decision-making (DM) related to a controversial socioscientific issue about genetically modified food. Participants were ninth-grade students in four intact sections (two regulars and two honors) in a public high school in the Midwest. All four groups were taught by their regular science teacher. The treatment comprised a four-week unit about genetic engineering. Two groups (one regular and one honors), referred to as comparison groups, received instruction in genetic engineering and how to formulate arguments and make decisions related to this controversial issue. The other two groups (one regular and one honors), referred to as treatment groups, received instruction in genetic engineering and how to apply NOS aspects as they formulate arguments and make decisions in relation to this controversial issue. Chi-square analyses showed significant differences between the comparison and the treatment groups in relation to the understandings of four NOS aspects. There were no differences in their decisions, but there were differences in their DM factors in the context of the controversial socioscientific issue about genetically modified food. These results are discussed in light of the relationship between students' understandings of NOS and their DM related to controversial socioscientific issues.

  7. A clinical model for decision-making

    PubMed Central

    Martin, Richard M

    1978-01-01

    Richard Martin's aim in this paper is to present a critical method of making ethical decisions in a medical context. He feels that such a reflective method provides the best means of making the appropriate decisions in given situations. It is based on Dr Martin's experience in applying ethical theory while collaborating with physicians in the daily course of clinical practice. Through his giving of a functional definition of medical ethics, his descriptions of an analytical model, the significance of values for clinical decision-making and the advocacy role of medical ethicists and their relationships with clinicians, Richard Martin sets out his own value-intention as regards an ideal decision process. He stresses that his argument is of particular importance to his fellow ethicists who should continuously and vigorously examine the creative interaction of faith and fact in their own inquiry and action. Dr Martin concludes by stating that physicians and ethicists can work together to accomplish their common aim, which is, of course, the health and well-being of the patient. PMID:739517

  8. Trait Anxiety Has Effect on Decision Making under Ambiguity but Not Decision Making under Risk

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Long; Wang, Kai; Zhu, Chunyan; Yu, Fengqiong; Chen, Xingui

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies have reported that trait anxiety (TA) affects decision making. However, results remain largely inconsistent across studies. The aim of the current study was to further address the interaction between TA and decision making. 304 subjects without depression from a sample consisting of 642 participants were grouped into high TA (HTA), medium TA (MTA) and low TA (LTA) groups based on their TA scores from State Trait Anxiety Inventory. All subjects were assessed with the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) that measures decision making under ambiguity and the Game of Dice Task (GDT) that measures decision making under risk. While the HTA and LTA groups performed worse on the IGT compared to the MTA group, performances on the GDT between the three groups did not differ. Furthermore, the LTA and HTA groups showed different individual deck level preferences in the IGT: the former showed a preference for deck B indicating that these subjects focused more on the magnitude of rewards, and the latter showed a preference for deck A indicating significant decision making impairment. Our findings suggest that trait anxiety has effect on decision making under ambiguity but not decision making under risk and different levels of trait anxiety related differently to individual deck level preferences in the IGT. PMID:26000629

  9. Decision-making mechanisms in the brain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deco, Gustavo; Rolls, Edmund T.

    2007-02-01

    Behavioral, neurophysiological, and theoretical studies are converging to a common theory of decision-making that assumes an underlying diffusion process which integrates both the accumulation of perceptual and cognitive evidence for making the decision and motor choice in one unifying neural network. In particular, neuronal activity in the ventral premotor cortex (VPC) is related to decision-making while trained monkeys compare two mechanical vibrations applied sequentially to the tip of a finger to report which of the two stimuli have the higher frequency (Romo et al. 2004, Neuron 41: 165). In particular, neurons were found whose response depended only on the difference between the two applied frequencies, the sign of that difference being the determining factor for correct task performance. We describe an integrate-and-fire attractor model with realistic synaptic dynamics including AMPA, NMDA and GABA synapses which can reproduce the decision-making related response selectivity of VPC neurons during the comparison period of the task. Populations of neurons for each decision in the biased competition attractor receive a bias input that depends on the firing rates of neurons in the VPC that code for the two vibrotactile frequencies. It was found that if the connectivity parameters of the network are tuned, using mean-field techniques, so that the network has two possible stable stationary final attractors respectively related to the two possible decisions, then the firing rate of the neurons in whichever attractor wins reflects the sign of the difference in the frequencies being compared but not the absolute frequencies. Thus Weber's law for frequency comparison is not encoded by the firing rate of the neurons in these attractors. An analysis of the nonstationary evolution of the dynamics of the network model shows that Weber's law is implemented in the probability of transition from the initial spontaneous firing state to one of the two possible attractor states

  10. Evacuation decision-making: process and uncertainty

    SciTech Connect

    Mileti, D.; Sorensen, J.; Bogard, W.

    1985-09-01

    The purpose was to describe the processes of evacuation decision-making, identify and document uncertainties in that process and discuss implications for federal assumption of liability for precautionary evacuations at nuclear facilities under the Price-Anderson Act. Four major categories of uncertainty are identified concerning the interpretation of hazard, communication problems, perceived impacts of evacuation decisions and exogenous influences. Over 40 historical accounts are reviewed and cases of these uncertainties are documented. The major findings are that all levels of government, including federal agencies experience uncertainties in some evacuation situations. Second, private sector organizations are subject to uncertainties at a variety of decision points. Third, uncertainties documented in the historical record have provided the grounds for liability although few legal actions have ensued. Finally it is concluded that if liability for evacuations is assumed by the federal government, the concept of a ''precautionary'' evacuation is not useful in establishing criteria for that assumption. 55 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs.

  11. Decision Making: from Neuroscience to Psychiatry

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Daeyeol

    2013-01-01

    Adaptive behaviors increase the likelihood of survival and reproduction and improve the quality of life. However, it is often difficult to identify optimal behaviors in real life due to the complexity of the decision maker’s environment and social dynamics. As a result, although many different brain areas and circuits are involved in decision making, evolutionary and learning solutions adopted by individual decision makers sometimes produce suboptimal outcomes. Although these problems are exacerbated in numerous neurological and psychiatric disorders, their underlying neurobiological causes remain incompletely understood. In this review, theoretical frameworks in economics and machine learning and their applications in recent behavioral and neurobiological studies are summarized. Examples of such applications in clinical domains are also discussed for substance abuse, Parkinson’s disease, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, schizophrenia, mood disorders, and autism. Findings from these studies have begun to lay the foundations necessary to improve diagnostics and treatment for various neurological and psychiatric disorders. PMID:23622061

  12. Farmer Decision-Making for Climate Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lubell, M.; Niles, M.; Salerno, J.

    2015-12-01

    This talk will provide an overview of several studies of how farmers make decisions about climate change adaptation and mitigation. A particular focus will be the "limiting factors hypothesis", which argues that farmers will respond to the climate variables that usually have the largest impact on their crop productivity. For example, the most limiting factor in California is usually water so how climate change affects water will be the largest drive of climate adaptation decisions. This basic idea is drawn from the broader theory of "psychological distance", which argue that human decisions are more attuned to ideas that are psychologically closer in space, time, or other factors. Empirical examples come from California, New Zealand, and Africa.

  13. Ethical decision making by Canadian family physicians.

    PubMed Central

    Christie, R J; Hoffmaster, C B; Stewart, M A

    1987-01-01

    Canadian family physicians were sent questionnaires that asked how they would handle the ethical problems posed by six sample cases and what reasons were relevant to their decisions. The ethical problems concerned how much information to divulge to patients, how extensively a physician should become involved in the lifestyles of patients and how to deal with a possible family problem. The study identified characteristics of family physicians that affect their ethical decision making and tested a theoretical model that regards ethical problems as conflicts between respecting patient autonomy and promoting patient welfare. The varied responses suggested that ethical issues are resolved on a case-by-case, rather than a theoretical, basis. Certification in family medicine was the only characteristic associated with a consistent pattern of responses; certificants were more likely than other physicians to involve patients in decisions. PMID:3676930

  14. Toolbox or Adjustable Spanner? A Critical Comparison of Two Metaphors for Adaptive Decision Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Söllner, Anke; Bröder, Arndt

    2016-01-01

    For multiattribute decision tasks, different metaphors exist that describe the process of decision making and its adaptation to diverse problems and situations. Multiple strategy models (MSMs) assume that decision makers choose adaptively from a set of different strategies (toolbox metaphor), whereas evidence accumulation models (EAMs) hold that a…

  15. "Decisions, decisions, decisions": transfer and specificity of decision-making skill between sports.

    PubMed

    Causer, Joe; Ford, Paul R

    2014-08-01

    The concept of transfer of learning holds that previous practice or experience in one task or domain will enable successful performance in another related task or domain. In contrast, specificity of learning holds that previous practice or experience in one task or domain does not transfer to other related tasks or domains. The aim of the current study is to examine whether decision-making skill transfers between sports that share similar elements, or whether it is specific to a sport. Participants (n = 205) completed a video-based temporal occlusion decision-making test in which they were required to decide on which action to execute across a series of 4 versus 4 soccer game situations. A sport engagement questionnaire was used to identify 106 soccer players, 43 other invasion sport players and 58 other sport players. Positive transfer of decision-making skill occurred between soccer and other invasion sports, which are related and have similar elements, but not from volleyball, supporting the concept of transfer of learning.

  16. Why good leaders make bad decisions.

    PubMed

    Campbell, Andrew; Whitehead, Jo; Finkelstein, Sydney

    2009-02-01

    Decision making lies at the heart of our personal and professional lives. Yet the daunting reality is that enormously important decisions made by intelligent, responsible people with the best information and intentions are nevertheless hopelessly flawed at times. In part, that's due to the way our brains work. Modern neuroscience teaches us that two hard-wired processes in the brain--pattern recognition and emotional tagging--are critical to decision making. Both are normally reliable; indeed, they provide us with an evolutionary advantage. But in certain circumstances, either one can trip us up and skew our judgment. In this article, Campbell and Whitehead, directors at the Ashridge Strategic Management Centre, together with Finkelstein, of Dartmouth's Tuck School, describe the conditions that promote errors of judgment and explore how organizations can build safeguards against them into the decision-making process. In their analysis, the authors delineate three "red-flag conditions" that are responsible either for distorting emotional tagging or for encouraging people to see false patterns: conflicts of interest; attachments to people, places, or things; and the presence of misleading memories, which seem, but really are not, relevant and comparable to the current situation. Using a global chemical company as an example, the authors describe the steps leaders can take to counteract those biases: inject fresh experience or analysis, introduce further debate and more challenges to their thinking, and impose stronger governance. Rather than rely on the wisdom of experienced chairmen, the humility of CEOs, or the standard organizational checks and balances, the authors urge, everyone involved in important decisions should explicitly consider whether red flags exist and, if they do, lobby for appropriate safeguards.

  17. 36 CFR 1010.13 - Trust decision-making procedures.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Trust decision-making... § 1010.13 Trust decision-making procedures. To ensure that at major decision-making points all relevant... to being prepared at the earliest point in the decision-making process, shall accompany the...

  18. 36 CFR 1010.13 - Trust decision-making procedures.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2013-07-01 2012-07-01 true Trust decision-making... § 1010.13 Trust decision-making procedures. To ensure that at major decision-making points all relevant... to being prepared at the earliest point in the decision-making process, shall accompany the...

  19. 43 CFR 10010.48 - Decision-making procedures.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... POLICY ACT Relationship to Decision-Making § 10010.48 Decision-making procedures. (a) Procedures by which the Commission makes decisions are specified in 43 CFR part 10000. (b) The Commission will incorporate... 43 Public Lands: Interior 2 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Decision-making procedures....

  20. 43 CFR 10010.48 - Decision-making procedures.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... POLICY ACT Relationship to Decision-Making § 10010.48 Decision-making procedures. (a) Procedures by which the Commission makes decisions are specified in 43 CFR part 10000. (b) The Commission will incorporate... 43 Public Lands: Interior 2 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Decision-making procedures....

  1. 43 CFR 10010.48 - Decision-making procedures.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... POLICY ACT Relationship to Decision-Making § 10010.48 Decision-making procedures. (a) Procedures by which the Commission makes decisions are specified in 43 CFR part 10000. (b) The Commission will incorporate... 43 Public Lands: Interior 2 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Decision-making procedures....

  2. 36 CFR 1010.13 - Trust decision-making procedures.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Trust decision-making... § 1010.13 Trust decision-making procedures. To ensure that at major decision-making points all relevant... to being prepared at the earliest point in the decision-making process, shall accompany the...

  3. 36 CFR 1010.13 - Trust decision-making procedures.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Trust decision-making... § 1010.13 Trust decision-making procedures. To ensure that at major decision-making points all relevant... to being prepared at the earliest point in the decision-making process, shall accompany the...

  4. 36 CFR 1010.13 - Trust decision-making procedures.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Trust decision-making... § 1010.13 Trust decision-making procedures. To ensure that at major decision-making points all relevant... to being prepared at the earliest point in the decision-making process, shall accompany the...

  5. 43 CFR 10010.48 - Decision-making procedures.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... POLICY ACT Relationship to Decision-Making § 10010.48 Decision-making procedures. (a) Procedures by which the Commission makes decisions are specified in 43 CFR part 10000. (b) The Commission will incorporate... 43 Public Lands: Interior 2 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Decision-making procedures....

  6. Decision Making in a Joint Doctoral Program in Educational Leadership

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vieth, Robert C.

    2007-01-01

    This article explores the decision making in developing and starting a partnership between three universities using the decision-making models developed by Graham Allison in 1971 and updated in 1999. University partnerships are complicated and require more than one decision-making model to explain all the significant decisions that are make in…

  7. Group Dynamics and Decision Making: Backcountry Recreationists in Avalanche Terrain

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bright, Leslie Shay

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to describe and determine the prevalence of decision-making characteristics of recreational backcountry groups when making a decision of where to travel and ride in avalanche terrain from the perspective of individuals. Decision-making characteristics encompassed communication, decision-making processes, leadership,…

  8. Data-Based Decision Making in Education: Challenges and Opportunities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schildkamp, Kim, Ed.; Lai, Mei Kuin, Ed.; Earl, Lorna, Ed.

    2013-01-01

    In a context where schools are held more and more accountable for the education they provide, data-based decision making has become increasingly important. This book brings together scholars from several countries to examine data-based decision making. Data-based decision making in this book refers to making decisions based on a broad range of…

  9. Distributed decision-making for space operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hornstein, Rhoda Shaller; Gardner, J. A.; Willoughby, J. K.

    1990-01-01

    A programmatic and technical perspective in the context of future space applications is presented, that includes some of the management challenges that arise as the decision-making process becomes increasingly more decentralized. Three challenges are discussed: (1) the degree to which the planners must communicate with each other and with those who are seeking space operations resources, (2) the collection, management, employment and dissemination of the information needed to make decisions, and (3) the challenges connected with schedule integration. The technical perspective presented leads to recommended adaptations to the normal scheduling algorithms that retain the 'degrees of freedom' in the planning result. It is shown that these adaptations are specific technical responses to the programmatic challenges discussed.

  10. Measuring and making decisions for social reciprocity.

    PubMed

    Solanas, Antonio; Leiva, David; Sierra, Vicenta; Salafranca, Lluís

    2009-08-01

    Social reciprocity may explain certain emerging psychological processes likely to be founded on dyadic relations. Although indexes and statistics have been proposed to measure and make statistical decisions regarding social reciprocity in groups, these tools were generally developed to identify association patterns rather than to quantify the discrepancies between what each individual addresses to his or her partners and what is received from those partners in return. Additionally, social researchers' interest extends beyond measuring groups at the global level because dyadic and individual measurements are also necessary for proper descriptions of social interactions. This study is concerned with a new statistic for measuring social reciprocity at the global level and with decomposing that statistic in order to identify which dyads and individuals account for a significant part of asymmetry in social interactions. In addition to a set of indexes, some exact analytical results are derived, and a way of making statistical decisions is proposed.

  11. Modeling Risky Decision Making in Rodents

    PubMed Central

    Simon, Nicholas W.; Setlow, Barry

    2012-01-01

    Excessive risk taking is a hallmark of various psychopathological disorders. We have developed a task that models such risky decision making in rats. In this task, rats are given choices between small, safe rewards and large rewards accompanied by a risk of punishment (footshock). The risk of punishment increases throughout the test session, which allows the quantification of risky decision making at different degrees of risk for each subject. Importantly, this task yields a consistently wide degree of reliable individual variability, allowing the characterization of rats as “risk taking” or “risk averse.” This task has been demonstrated to be effective for testing the effects of pharmacological agents on risk taking, and the individual variability (which mimics the human population) allows assessment of neurobiological distinctions between subjects based on risk-taking profile. PMID:22231813

  12. Shared decision making after MacIntyre.

    PubMed

    Tilburt, Jon

    2011-04-01

    This paper explores the practical consequences that Enlightenment ideals had on morality as it applies to clinical practice, using Alisdair MacIntyre's conceptualization and critique of the Enlightenment as its reference point. Taking the perspective of a practicing clinician, I critically examine the historical origins of ideas that made shared decision making (SDM) a necessary and ideal model of clinician-patient relationship. I then build on MacIntyre's critique of Enlightenment thought and examine its implications for conceptions of shared decision-making that use an Enlightenment justification, as well as examining contemporary threats to SDM that the Enlightenment made possible. I conclude by offering an alternative framing of SDM that fits with the clinician's duty to act on behalf of and along with patients but that avoids the tenuous Enlightenment assumptions that MacIntyre's work so vocally critiques.

  13. Involving the motor system in decision making.

    PubMed

    Wyss, Reto; König, Peter; Verschure, Paul F M J

    2004-02-01

    The control of behaviour is usually understood in terms of three distinct components: sensory processing, decision making and movement control. Recently, this view has been questioned on the basis of physiological and behavioural data, blurring the distinction between these three stages. This raises the question to what extent the motor system itself can contribute to the interpretation of behavioural situations. To investigate this question we use a neural model of sensory motor integration applied to a behaving mobile robot performing a navigation task. We show that the population response of the motor system provides a substrate for the categorization of behavioural situations. This categorization allows for the assessment of the complexity of a behavioural situation and regulates whether higher-level decision making is required to resolve behavioural conflicts. Our model lends credence to an emerging reconceptualization of behavioural control where the motor system can be considered as part of a high-level perceptual system.

  14. Leadership of risk decision making in a complex, technology organization: The deliberative decision making model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flaming, Susan C.

    2007-12-01

    The continuing saga of satellite technology development is as much a story of successful risk management as of innovative engineering. How do program leaders on complex, technology projects manage high stakes risks that threaten business success and satellite performance? This grounded theory study of risk decision making portrays decision leadership practices at one communication satellite company. Integrated product team (IPT) leaders of multi-million dollar programs were interviewed and observed to develop an extensive description of the leadership skills required to navigate organizational influences and drive challenging risk decisions to closure. Based on the study's findings the researcher proposes a new decision making model, Deliberative Decision Making, to describe the program leaders' cognitive and organizational leadership practices. This Deliberative Model extends the insights of prominent decision making models including the rational (or classical) and the naturalistic and qualifies claims made by bounded rationality theory. The Deliberative Model describes how leaders proactively engage resources to play a variety of decision leadership roles. The Model incorporates six distinct types of leadership decision activities, undertaken in varying sequence based on the challenges posed by specific risks. Novel features of the Deliberative Decision Model include: an inventory of leadership methods for managing task challenges, potential stakeholder bias and debates; four types of leadership meta-decisions that guide decision processes, and aligned organizational culture. Both supporting and constraining organizational influences were observed as leaders managed major risks, requiring active leadership on the most difficult decisions. Although the company's engineering culture emphasized the importance of data-based decisions, the uncertainties intrinsic to satellite risks required expert engineering judgment to be exercised throughout. An investigation into

  15. Implementing participatory decision making in forest planning.

    PubMed

    Ananda, Jayanath

    2007-04-01

    Forest policy decisions are often a source of debate, conflict, and tension in many countries. The debate over forest land-use decisions often hinges on disagreements about societal values related to forest resource use. Disagreements on social value positions are fought out repeatedly at local, regional, national, and international levels at an enormous social cost. Forest policy problems have some inherent characteristics that make them more difficult to deal with. On the one hand, forest policy decisions involve uncertainty, long time scales, and complex natural systems and processes. On the other hand, such decisions encompass social, political, and cultural systems that are evolving in response to forces such as globalization. Until recently, forest policy was heavily influenced by the scientific community and various economic models of optimal resource use. However, growing environmental awareness and acceptance of participatory democracy models in policy formulation have forced the public authorities to introduce new participatory mechanisms to manage forest resources. Most often, the efforts to include the public in policy formulation can be described using the lower rungs of Arnstein's public participation typology. This paper presents an approach that incorporates stakeholder preferences into forest land-use policy using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). An illustrative case of regional forest-policy formulation in Australia is used to demonstrate the approach. It is contended that applying the AHP in the policy process could considerably enhance the transparency of participatory process and public acceptance of policy decisions.

  16. Implementing Participatory Decision Making in Forest Planning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ananda, Jayanath

    2007-04-01

    Forest policy decisions are often a source of debate, conflict, and tension in many countries. The debate over forest land-use decisions often hinges on disagreements about societal values related to forest resource use. Disagreements on social value positions are fought out repeatedly at local, regional, national, and international levels at an enormous social cost. Forest policy problems have some inherent characteristics that make them more difficult to deal with. On the one hand, forest policy decisions involve uncertainty, long time scales, and complex natural systems and processes. On the other hand, such decisions encompass social, political, and cultural systems that are evolving in response to forces such as globalization. Until recently, forest policy was heavily influenced by the scientific community and various economic models of optimal resource use. However, growing environmental awareness and acceptance of participatory democracy models in policy formulation have forced the public authorities to introduce new participatory mechanisms to manage forest resources. Most often, the efforts to include the public in policy formulation can be described using the lower rungs of Arnstein’s public participation typology. This paper presents an approach that incorporates stakeholder preferences into forest land-use policy using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). An illustrative case of regional forest-policy formulation in Australia is used to demonstrate the approach. It is contended that applying the AHP in the policy process could considerably enhance the transparency of participatory process and public acceptance of policy decisions.

  17. Collaborative Platforms Aid Emergency Decision Making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2013-01-01

    Terra. Aqua. Cloudsat. Landsat. NASA runs and partners in many missions dedicated to monitoring the Earth, and the tools used in these missions continuously return data on everything from shifts in temperature to cloud formation to pollution levels over highways. The data are of great scientific value, but they also provide information that can play a critical role in decision making during times of crisis. Real-time developments in weather, wind, ocean currents, and numerous other conditions can have a significant impact on the way disasters, both natural and human-caused, unfold. "NASA has long recognized the need to make its data from real-time sources compatible and accessible for the purposes of decision making," says Michael Goodman, who was Disasters Program manager at NASA Headquarters from 2009-2012. "There are practical applications of NASA Earth science data, and we d like to accelerate the use of those applications." One of the main obstacles standing in the way of eminently practical data is the fact that the data from different missions are collected, formatted, and stored in different ways. Combining data sets in a way that makes them useful for decision makers has proven to be a difficult task. And while the need for a collaborative platform is widely recognized, very few have successfully made it work. Dave Jones, founder and CEO of StormCenter Communications Inc., which consults with decision makers to prepare for emergencies, says that "when I talk to public authorities, they say, If I had a nickel for every time someone told me they had a common operating platform, I d be rich. But one thing we ve seen over the years is that no one has been able to give end users the ability to ingest NASA data sets and merge them with their own."

  18. Subjective measures and clinical decision making.

    PubMed

    Delitto, A

    1989-07-01

    I have attempted to use Feinstein's model of clinimetric indexes and his criteria as a focus for further development of measures that in physical therapy are currently considered "soft" or "subjective". I feel this development will enhance the body of knowledge by objectifying a portion of clinical assessment (eg, the patient's complaints, "subjective" portion of the POMR's SOAP format) that is in tremendous need of quantification. By making these "soft" data "hard," I feel we will enhance the decision-making power of clinicians.

  19. Shared Decision-Making in Diabetes Care.

    PubMed

    Tamhane, Shrikant; Rodriguez-Gutierrez, Rene; Hargraves, Ian; Montori, Victor M

    2015-12-01

    Shared decision-making (SDM) is a collaborative process by which patients and clinicians work together in a deliberative dialogue. The purpose of this dialogue is to identify reasonable management options that best fit and addresses the unique situation of the patient. SDM supports the patient-centered translation of research into practice. SDM also helps implement a core principle of evidence-based medicine: evidence is necessary but never sufficient to make a clinical decision, as consideration of patient values and context is also required. SDM conversations build on a partnership between the patient and the clinician, draw on the body of evidence with regard to the different treatment options, and consider options in light of the values, preferences, and context of the patient. SDM is appropriate for diabetes care because diabetes care often requires consideration of management options that differ in ways that matter to patients, such as the way in which they place significant demands on patient's life and living. In the last decade, SDM has proven feasible and useful for sharing evidence with patients and for involving patients in making decisions with their clinicians. Health care and clinical policies advocate SDM, but these policies have yet to impact diabetes care. In this paper, we describe what SDM is, its known impact on diabetes care, and needed work to implement this patient-centered approach in the care of the millions of patients with diabetes. PMID:26458383

  20. Naturalistic Decision Making for Power System Operators

    SciTech Connect

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Podmore, Robin; Robinson, Marck; Ey, Pamela

    2010-02-01

    Motivation – Investigations of large-scale outages in the North American interconnected electric system often attribute the causes to three T’s: Trees, Training and Tools. To document and understand the mental processes used by expert operators when making critical decisions, a naturalistic decision making (NDM) model was developed. Transcripts of conversations were analyzed to reveal and assess NDM-based performance criteria. Findings/Design – An item analysis indicated that the operators’ Situation Awareness Levels, mental models, and mental simulations can be mapped at different points in the training scenario. This may identify improved training methods or analytical/ visualization tools. Originality/Value – This study applies for the first time, the concepts of Recognition Primed Decision Making, Situation Awareness Levels and Cognitive Task Analysis to training of electric power system operators. Take away message – The NDM approach provides a viable framework for systematic training management to accelerate learning in simulator-based training scenarios for power system operators and teams.

  1. Naturalistic Decision Making For Power System Operators

    SciTech Connect

    Greitzer, Frank L.; Podmore, Robin; Robinson, Marck; Ey, Pamela

    2009-06-23

    Abstract: Motivation -- As indicated by the Blackout of 2003, the North American interconnected electric system is vulnerable to cascading outages and widespread blackouts. Investigations of large scale outages often attribute the causes to the three T’s: Trees, Training and Tools. A systematic approach has been developed to document and understand the mental processes that an expert power system operator uses when making critical decisions. The approach has been developed and refined as part of a capability demonstration of a high-fidelity real-time power system simulator under normal and emergency conditions. To examine naturalistic decision making (NDM) processes, transcripts of operator-to-operator conversations are analyzed to reveal and assess NDM-based performance criteria. Findings/Design -- The results of the study indicate that we can map the Situation Awareness Level of the operators at each point in the scenario. We can also identify clearly what mental models and mental simulations are being performed at different points in the scenario. As a result of this research we expect that we can identify improved training methods and improved analytical and visualization tools for power system operators. Originality/Value -- The research applies for the first time, the concepts of Recognition Primed Decision Making, Situation Awareness Levels and Cognitive Task Analysis to training of electric power system operators. Take away message -- The NDM approach provides an ideal framework for systematic training management and mitigation to accelerate learning in team-based training scenarios with high-fidelity power grid simulators.

  2. Dopamine and Effort-Based Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Kurniawan, Irma Triasih; Guitart-Masip, Marc; Dolan, Ray J.

    2011-01-01

    Motivational theories of choice focus on the influence of goal values and strength of reinforcement to explain behavior. By contrast relatively little is known concerning how the cost of an action, such as effort expended, contributes to a decision to act. Effort-based decision making addresses how we make an action choice based on an integration of action and goal values. Here we review behavioral and neurobiological data regarding the representation of effort as action cost, and how this impacts on decision making. Although organisms expend effort to obtain a desired reward there is a striking sensitivity to the amount of effort required, such that the net preference for an action decreases as effort cost increases. We discuss the contribution of the neurotransmitter dopamine (DA) toward overcoming response costs and in enhancing an animal's motivation toward effortful actions. We also consider the contribution of brain structures, including the basal ganglia and anterior cingulate cortex, in the internal generation of action involving a translation of reward expectation into effortful action. PMID:21734862

  3. Serotonin shapes risky decision making in monkeys

    PubMed Central

    Kuhn, Cynthia M.; Platt, Michael L.

    2009-01-01

    Some people love taking risks, while others avoid gambles at all costs. The neural mechanisms underlying individual variation in preference for risky or certain outcomes, however, remain poorly understood. Although behavioral pathologies associated with compulsive gambling, addiction and other psychiatric disorders implicate deficient serotonin signaling in pathological decision making, there is little experimental evidence demonstrating a link between serotonin and risky decision making, in part due to the lack of a good animal model. We used dietary rapid tryptophan depletion (RTD) to acutely lower brain serotonin in three macaques performing a simple gambling task for fluid rewards. To confirm the efficacy of RTD experiments, we measured total plasma tryptophan using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with electrochemical detection. Reducing brain serotonin synthesis decreased preference for the safe option in a gambling task. Moreover, lowering brain serotonin function significantly decreased the premium required for monkeys to switch their preference to the risky option, suggesting that diminished serotonin signaling enhances the relative subjective value of the risky option. These results implicate serotonin in risk-sensitive decision making and, further, suggest pharmacological therapies for treating pathological risk preferences in disorders such as problem gambling and addiction. PMID:19553236

  4. Memory-Based Decision-Making with Heuristics: Evidence for a Controlled Activation of Memory Representations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Khader, Patrick H.; Pachur, Thorsten; Meier, Stefanie; Bien, Siegfried; Jost, Kerstin; Rosler, Frank

    2011-01-01

    Many of our daily decisions are memory based, that is, the attribute information about the decision alternatives has to be recalled. Behavioral studies suggest that for such decisions we often use simple strategies (heuristics) that rely on controlled and limited information search. It is assumed that these heuristics simplify decision-making by…

  5. Pleasure in decision-making situations

    PubMed Central

    Cabanac, Michel; Guillaume, Jacqueline; Balasko, Marta; Fleury, Adriana

    2002-01-01

    Background This study explores the role of pleasure in decision making. Results In Experiment 1, 12 subjects were presented with a questionnaire containing 46 items taken from the literature. Twenty-three items described a situation where a decision should be made and ended with a suggested solution. The other items served as filler items. The subjects were requested not to make a decision but to rate the pleasure or displeasure they experienced when reading the situation described in the item. The subjects' ratings were then compared to the decisions on the same situations made by the other subjects of the studies published by other workers. The ratings of pleasure/displeasure given by our subjects correlated significantly with the choices published by other authors. This result satisfies a necessary condition for pleasure to be the key of the decision making process in theoretical situations. In Experiment 2, a new group of 12 subjects rated their experience of pleasure/displeasure when reading various versions of 50 situations taken from daily life where an ethical decision had to be made (Questionnaire I) including 200 items. This was followed by a multiple-choice test with the 50 situations (Questionnaire II) using the same 200 items and offering the various behaviors. Subjects tended to choose ethical and unethical responses corresponding to their highest pleasure rating within each problem. In all cases the subjects' behavior was higher than chance level, and thus, followed the trend to maximize pleasure. In Experiment 3, 12 subjects reading 50 mathematical short problems followed by correct and incorrect versions of the answer to the problem (Questionnaire III), including 200 items. This was followed by a multiple-choice mathematical test with the 50 problems (Questionnaire IV) using the same 200 items and offering the correct and incorrect answers. In questionnaire IV, subjects tended to choose correct as well as incorrect responses corresponding to their

  6. Self-Esteem in Decision Making and Decision-Making Styles of Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Temel, Veysel; Birol, Sefa Sahan; Nas, Kazim; Akpinar, Selahattin; Tekin, Murat

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the study was to examine the self-esteem in decision-making and decision-making styles of the teachers in various branches of Çat town of Erzurum Province, Turkey in terms of some variables in 2014-2015 year. A total of 153 teachers (84 females and 69 males) (age (? = 1.6536 ± 0.72837) from different departments participated in the…

  7. Public involvement in science and decision making.

    PubMed

    Till, J E; Meyer, K R

    2001-04-01

    Members of the public are becoming increasingly interested in understanding risks associated with their exposure to radionuclides and chemicals in the environment. They also want to be more involved in decision making about future exposures to risks. This paper reviews one community's involvement in decisions about technical methods to calculate soil cleanup criteria for the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site near Denver, Colorado. The public anticipated that much of the site would be available for their use following cleanup. Final decisions regarding the future use of the site have yet to be made; however, the soil action levels were developed for this eventuality. When the public expressed considerable concern about cleanup standards for the site in 1996, a community group met to focus efforts on reviewing the cleanup standards. Later, the U.S. Department of Energy officially established the community panel to oversee an independent calculation of radionuclide soil action levels that would be used as the basis for cleanup at Rocky Flats. The primary radionuclide of concern was 239+240Pu. The Radionuclide Soil Action Level Oversight Panel (Panel) was substantively involved in all aspects of the work, from selecting the contractor, approving the computer code that formed the basis of the calculation, and assisting in developing the exposure scenarios, to selecting the values for the numerous input parameters. Communicating the uncertainties to the public, which was a major component of the analysis of soil action levels, presented a unique challenge. Over the course of the 18-mo project, the Panel and interested members of the public gained an understanding of the technical elements of the calculation and the sensitivities of the different parameters. This project serves as an excellent model of the effectiveness of public involvement in science and decision making for the future. It also illustrates the public expectations, difficulties, and time

  8. Climate Information Needs for Financial Decision Making

    SciTech Connect

    Higgins, Paul

    2013-11-19

    Climate Information Needs for Financial Decision Making (Final Report) This Department of Energy workshop award (grant #DE-SC0008480) provided primary support for the American Meteorological Society’s study on climate information needs for financial decision making. The goal of this study was to help advance societal decision making by examining the implications of climate variability and change on near-term financial investments. We explored four key topics: 1) the conditions and criteria that influence returns on investment of major financial decisions, 2) the climate sensitivity of financial decisions, 3) climate information needs of financial decision makers, and 4) potential new mechanisms to promote collaboration between scientists and financial decision makers. Better understanding of these four topics will help scientists provide the most useful information and enable financial decision makers to use scientific information most effectively. As a result, this study will enable leaders in business and government to make well-informed choices that help maximize long-term economic success and social wellbeing in the United States The outcomes of the study include a workshop, which brought together leaders from the scientific and financial decision making communities, a publication of the study report, and a public briefing of the results to the policy community. In addition, we will present the results to the scientific community at the AMS Annual Meeting in February, 2014. The study results were covered well by the media including Bloomberg News and E&E News. Upon request, we also briefed the Office of Science Technology Policy (OSTP) and the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) on the outcomes. We presented the results to the policy community through a public briefing in December on Capitol Hill. The full report is publicly available at www.ametsoc.org/cin. Summary of Key Findings The United States invests roughly $1.5 trillion U.S. dollars (USD) in

  9. Principles of shared decision-making within teams.

    PubMed

    Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Wernovsky, Gil; Cooper, David S; Karl, Tom R

    2015-12-01

    In the domain of paediatric and congenital cardiac care, the stakes are huge. Likewise, the care of these children assembles a group of "A+ personality" individuals from the domains of cardiac surgery, cardiology, anaesthesiology, critical care, and nursing. This results in an environment that has opportunity for both powerful collaboration and powerful conflict. Providers of healthcare should avoid conflict when it has no bearing on outcome, as it is clearly a squandering of individual and collective political capital. Outcomes after cardiac surgery are now being reported transparently and publicly. In the present era of transparency, one may wonder how to balance the following potentially competing demands: quality healthcare, transparency and accountability, and teamwork and shared decision-making. An understanding of transparency and public reporting in the domain of paediatric cardiac surgery facilitates the implementation of a strategy for teamwork and shared decision-making. In January, 2015, the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) began to publicly report outcomes of paediatric and congenital cardiac surgery using the 2014 Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database (STS-CHSD) Mortality Risk Model. The 2014 STS-CHSD Mortality Risk Model facilitates description of Operative Mortality adjusted for procedural and patient-level factors. The need for transparency in reporting of outcomes can create pressure on healthcare providers to implement strategies of teamwork and shared decision-making to assure outstanding results. A simple strategy of shared decision-making was described by Tom Karl and was implemented in multiple domains by Jeff Jacobs and David Cooper. In a critical-care environment, it is not unusual for healthcare providers to disagree about strategies of management of patients. When two healthcare providers disagree, each provider can classify the disagreement into three levels: • SDM Level 1 Decision: "We disagree but it really

  10. Principles of shared decision-making within teams.

    PubMed

    Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Wernovsky, Gil; Cooper, David S; Karl, Tom R

    2015-12-01

    In the domain of paediatric and congenital cardiac care, the stakes are huge. Likewise, the care of these children assembles a group of "A+ personality" individuals from the domains of cardiac surgery, cardiology, anaesthesiology, critical care, and nursing. This results in an environment that has opportunity for both powerful collaboration and powerful conflict. Providers of healthcare should avoid conflict when it has no bearing on outcome, as it is clearly a squandering of individual and collective political capital. Outcomes after cardiac surgery are now being reported transparently and publicly. In the present era of transparency, one may wonder how to balance the following potentially competing demands: quality healthcare, transparency and accountability, and teamwork and shared decision-making. An understanding of transparency and public reporting in the domain of paediatric cardiac surgery facilitates the implementation of a strategy for teamwork and shared decision-making. In January, 2015, the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) began to publicly report outcomes of paediatric and congenital cardiac surgery using the 2014 Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database (STS-CHSD) Mortality Risk Model. The 2014 STS-CHSD Mortality Risk Model facilitates description of Operative Mortality adjusted for procedural and patient-level factors. The need for transparency in reporting of outcomes can create pressure on healthcare providers to implement strategies of teamwork and shared decision-making to assure outstanding results. A simple strategy of shared decision-making was described by Tom Karl and was implemented in multiple domains by Jeff Jacobs and David Cooper. In a critical-care environment, it is not unusual for healthcare providers to disagree about strategies of management of patients. When two healthcare providers disagree, each provider can classify the disagreement into three levels: • SDM Level 1 Decision: "We disagree but it really

  11. Stress alters personal moral decision making.

    PubMed

    Youssef, Farid F; Dookeeram, Karine; Basdeo, Vasant; Francis, Emmanuel; Doman, Mekaeel; Mamed, Danielle; Maloo, Stefan; Degannes, Joel; Dobo, Linda; Ditshotlo, Phatsimo; Legall, George

    2012-04-01

    While early studies of moral decision making highlighted the role of rational, conscious executive processes involving frontal lobe activation more recent work has suggested that emotions and gut reactions have a key part to play in moral reasoning. Given that stress can activate many of the same brain regions that are important for and connected to brain centres involved in emotional processing we sought to evaluate if stress could influence moral decision making. Sixty-five undergraduate volunteers were randomly assigned to control (n=33) and experimental groups (n=32). The latter underwent the Trier Social Stress Test (TSST) and induction of stress was assessed by measurement of salivary cortisol levels. Subjects were then required to provide a response to thirty moral dilemmas via a computer interface that recorded both their decision and reaction time. Three types of dilemmas were used: non-moral, impersonal moral and personal moral. Using a binary logistic model there were no significant predicators of utilitarian response in non-moral and impersonal moral dilemmas. However the stressed group and females were found to predict utilitarian responses to personal moral dilemmas. When comparing percentage utilitarian responses there were no significant differences noted for the non-moral and impersonal moral dilemmas but the stressed group showed significantly less utilitarian responses compared to control subjects. The stress response was significantly negatively correlated with utilitarian responses. Females also showed significantly less utilitarian responses than males. We conclude that activation of the stress response predisposed participants to less utilitarian responses when faced with high conflict personal moral dilemmas and suggest that this offers further support for dual process theory of moral judgment. We also conclude that females tend to make less utilitarian personal moral decisions compared to males, providing further evidence that there are

  12. Maintaining homeostasis by decision-making.

    PubMed

    Korn, Christoph W; Bach, Dominik R

    2015-05-01

    Living organisms need to maintain energetic homeostasis. For many species, this implies taking actions with delayed consequences. For example, humans may have to decide between foraging for high-calorie but hard-to-get, and low-calorie but easy-to-get food, under threat of starvation. Homeostatic principles prescribe decisions that maximize the probability of sustaining appropriate energy levels across the entire foraging trajectory. Here, predictions from biological principles contrast with predictions from economic decision-making models based on maximizing the utility of the endpoint outcome of a choice. To empirically arbitrate between the predictions of biological and economic models for individual human decision-making, we devised a virtual foraging task in which players chose repeatedly between two foraging environments, lost energy by the passage of time, and gained energy probabilistically according to the statistics of the environment they chose. Reaching zero energy was framed as starvation. We used the mathematics of random walks to derive endpoint outcome distributions of the choices. This also furnished equivalent lotteries, presented in a purely economic, casino-like frame, in which starvation corresponded to winning nothing. Bayesian model comparison showed that--in both the foraging and the casino frames--participants' choices depended jointly on the probability of starvation and the expected endpoint value of the outcome, but could not be explained by economic models based on combinations of statistical moments or on rank-dependent utility. This implies that under precisely defined constraints biological principles are better suited to explain human decision-making than economic models based on endpoint utility maximization.

  13. Stress alters personal moral decision making.

    PubMed

    Youssef, Farid F; Dookeeram, Karine; Basdeo, Vasant; Francis, Emmanuel; Doman, Mekaeel; Mamed, Danielle; Maloo, Stefan; Degannes, Joel; Dobo, Linda; Ditshotlo, Phatsimo; Legall, George

    2012-04-01

    While early studies of moral decision making highlighted the role of rational, conscious executive processes involving frontal lobe activation more recent work has suggested that emotions and gut reactions have a key part to play in moral reasoning. Given that stress can activate many of the same brain regions that are important for and connected to brain centres involved in emotional processing we sought to evaluate if stress could influence moral decision making. Sixty-five undergraduate volunteers were randomly assigned to control (n=33) and experimental groups (n=32). The latter underwent the Trier Social Stress Test (TSST) and induction of stress was assessed by measurement of salivary cortisol levels. Subjects were then required to provide a response to thirty moral dilemmas via a computer interface that recorded both their decision and reaction time. Three types of dilemmas were used: non-moral, impersonal moral and personal moral. Using a binary logistic model there were no significant predicators of utilitarian response in non-moral and impersonal moral dilemmas. However the stressed group and females were found to predict utilitarian responses to personal moral dilemmas. When comparing percentage utilitarian responses there were no significant differences noted for the non-moral and impersonal moral dilemmas but the stressed group showed significantly less utilitarian responses compared to control subjects. The stress response was significantly negatively correlated with utilitarian responses. Females also showed significantly less utilitarian responses than males. We conclude that activation of the stress response predisposed participants to less utilitarian responses when faced with high conflict personal moral dilemmas and suggest that this offers further support for dual process theory of moral judgment. We also conclude that females tend to make less utilitarian personal moral decisions compared to males, providing further evidence that there are

  14. Maintaining homeostasis by decision-making.

    PubMed

    Korn, Christoph W; Bach, Dominik R

    2015-05-01

    Living organisms need to maintain energetic homeostasis. For many species, this implies taking actions with delayed consequences. For example, humans may have to decide between foraging for high-calorie but hard-to-get, and low-calorie but easy-to-get food, under threat of starvation. Homeostatic principles prescribe decisions that maximize the probability of sustaining appropriate energy levels across the entire foraging trajectory. Here, predictions from biological principles contrast with predictions from economic decision-making models based on maximizing the utility of the endpoint outcome of a choice. To empirically arbitrate between the predictions of biological and economic models for individual human decision-making, we devised a virtual foraging task in which players chose repeatedly between two foraging environments, lost energy by the passage of time, and gained energy probabilistically according to the statistics of the environment they chose. Reaching zero energy was framed as starvation. We used the mathematics of random walks to derive endpoint outcome distributions of the choices. This also furnished equivalent lotteries, presented in a purely economic, casino-like frame, in which starvation corresponded to winning nothing. Bayesian model comparison showed that--in both the foraging and the casino frames--participants' choices depended jointly on the probability of starvation and the expected endpoint value of the outcome, but could not be explained by economic models based on combinations of statistical moments or on rank-dependent utility. This implies that under precisely defined constraints biological principles are better suited to explain human decision-making than economic models based on endpoint utility maximization. PMID:26024504

  15. Decision-making competence and attempted suicide

    PubMed Central

    Szanto, Katalin; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Parker, Andrew M; Hallquist, Michael N; Vanyukov, Polina M; Dombrovski, Alexandre Y

    2015-01-01

    Objective The propensity of people vulnerable to suicide to make poor life decisions is increasingly well documented. Do they display an extreme degree of decision biases? The present study used a behavioral decision approach to examine the susceptibility of low-lethality and high-lethality suicide attempters to common decision biases, which may ultimately obscure alternative solutions and deterrents to suicide in a crisis. Method We assessed older and middle-aged individuals who made high-lethality (medically serious; N=31) and low-lethality suicide attempts (N=29). Comparison groups included suicide ideators (N=30), non-suicidal depressed (N=53), and psychiatrically healthy participants (N=28). Attempters, ideators, and non-suicidal depressed participants had unipolar non-psychotic major depression. Decision biases included sunk cost (inability to abort an action for which costs are irrecoverable), framing (responding to superficial features of how a problem is presented), under/overconfidence (appropriateness of confidence in knowledge), and inconsistent risk perception. Data were collected between June of 2010 and February of 2014. Results Both high- and low-lethality attempters were more susceptible to framing effects, as compared to the other groups included in this study (p≤ 0.05, ηp2 =.06). In contrast, low-lethality attempters were more susceptible to sunk costs than both the comparison groups and high-lethality attempters (p≤ 0.01, ηp2 =.09). These group differences remained after accounting for age, global cognitive performance, and impulsive traits. Premorbid IQ partially explained group differences in framing effects. Conclusion Suicide attempters’ failure to resist framing may reflect their inability to consider a decision from an objective standpoint in a crisis. Low-lethality attempters’ failure to resist sunk-cost may reflect their tendency to confuse past and future costs of their behavior, lowering their threshold for acting on suicidal

  16. An emerging field of research: challenges in pediatric decision making.

    PubMed

    Lipstein, Ellen A; Brinkman, William B; Fiks, Alexander G; Hendrix, Kristin S; Kryworuchko, Jennifer; Miller, Victoria A; Prosser, Lisa A; Ungar, Wendy J; Fox, David

    2015-04-01

    There is growing interest in pediatric decision science, spurred by policies advocating for children's involvement in medical decision making. Challenges specific to pediatric decision research include the dynamic nature of child participation in decisions due to the growth and development of children, the family context of all pediatric decisions, and the measurement of preferences and outcomes that may inform decision making in the pediatric setting. The objectives of this article are to describe each of these challenges, to provide decision researchers with insight into pediatric decision making, and to establish a blueprint for future research that will contribute to high-quality pediatric medical decision making. Much work has been done to address gaps in pediatric decision science, but substantial work remains. Understanding and addressing the challenges that exist in pediatric decision making may foster medical decision-making science across the age spectrum.

  17. Irrational time allocation in decision-making.

    PubMed

    Oud, Bastiaan; Krajbich, Ian; Miller, Kevin; Cheong, Jin Hyun; Botvinick, Matthew; Fehr, Ernst

    2016-01-13

    Time is an extremely valuable resource but little is known about the efficiency of time allocation in decision-making. Empirical evidence suggests that in many ecologically relevant situations, decision difficulty and the relative reward from making a correct choice, compared to an incorrect one, are inversely linked, implying that it is optimal to use relatively less time for difficult choice problems. This applies, in particular, to value-based choices, in which the relative reward from choosing the higher valued item shrinks as the values of the other options get closer to the best option and are thus more difficult to discriminate. Here, we experimentally show that people behave sub-optimally in such contexts. They do not respond to incentives that favour the allocation of time to choice problems in which the relative reward for choosing the best option is high; instead they spend too much time on problems in which the reward difference between the options is low. We demonstrate this by showing that it is possible to improve subjects' time allocation with a simple intervention that cuts them off when their decisions take too long. Thus, we provide a novel form of evidence that organisms systematically spend their valuable time in an inefficient way, and simultaneously offer a potential solution to the problem. PMID:26763695

  18. Irrational time allocation in decision-making.

    PubMed

    Oud, Bastiaan; Krajbich, Ian; Miller, Kevin; Cheong, Jin Hyun; Botvinick, Matthew; Fehr, Ernst

    2016-01-13

    Time is an extremely valuable resource but little is known about the efficiency of time allocation in decision-making. Empirical evidence suggests that in many ecologically relevant situations, decision difficulty and the relative reward from making a correct choice, compared to an incorrect one, are inversely linked, implying that it is optimal to use relatively less time for difficult choice problems. This applies, in particular, to value-based choices, in which the relative reward from choosing the higher valued item shrinks as the values of the other options get closer to the best option and are thus more difficult to discriminate. Here, we experimentally show that people behave sub-optimally in such contexts. They do not respond to incentives that favour the allocation of time to choice problems in which the relative reward for choosing the best option is high; instead they spend too much time on problems in which the reward difference between the options is low. We demonstrate this by showing that it is possible to improve subjects' time allocation with a simple intervention that cuts them off when their decisions take too long. Thus, we provide a novel form of evidence that organisms systematically spend their valuable time in an inefficient way, and simultaneously offer a potential solution to the problem.

  19. Money Related Decommissioning and Funding Decision Making

    SciTech Connect

    Goodman, Lynne S.

    2008-01-15

    'Money makes the world go round', as the song says. It definitely influences decommissioning decision-making and financial assurance for future decommissioning. This paper will address two money-related decommissioning topics. The first is the evaluation of whether to continue or to halt decommissioning activities at Fermi 1. The second is maintaining adequacy of financial assurance for future decommissioning of operating plants. Decommissioning costs considerable money and costs are often higher than originally estimated. If costs increase significantly and decommissioning is not well funded, decommissioning activities may be deferred. Several decommissioning projects have been deferred when decision-makers determined future spending is preferable than current spending, or when costs have risen significantly. Decommissioning activity timing is being reevaluated for the Fermi 1 project. Assumptions for waste cost-escalation significantly impact the decision being made this year on the Fermi 1 decommissioning project. They also have a major impact on the estimated costs for decommissioning currently operating plants. Adequately funding full decommissioning during plant operation will ensure that the users who receive the benefit pay the full price of the nuclear-generated electricity. Funding throughout operation also will better ensure that money is available following shutdown to allow decommissioning to be conducted without need for additional funds.

  20. Expectancies in Decision Making, Reinforcement Learning, and Ventral Striatum

    PubMed Central

    van der Meer, Matthijs A. A.; Redish, A. David

    2009-01-01

    Decisions can arise in different ways, such as from a gut feeling, doing what worked last time, or planful deliberation. Different decision-making systems are dissociable behaviorally, map onto distinct brain systems, and have different computational demands. For instance, “model-free” decision strategies use prediction errors to estimate scalar action values from previous experience, while “model-based” strategies leverage internal forward models to generate and evaluate potentially rich outcome expectancies. Animal learning studies indicate that expectancies may arise from different sources, including not only forward models but also Pavlovian associations, and the flexibility with which such representations impact behavior may depend on how they are generated. In the light of these considerations, we review the results of van der Meer and Redish (2009a), who found that ventral striatal neurons that respond to reward delivery can also be activated at other points, notably at a decision point where hippocampal forward representations were also observed. These data suggest the possibility that ventral striatal reward representations contribute to model-based expectancies used in deliberative decision making. PMID:21221409

  1. Expectancies in decision making, reinforcement learning, and ventral striatum.

    PubMed

    van der Meer, Matthijs A A; Redish, A David

    2010-01-01

    Decisions can arise in different ways, such as from a gut feeling, doing what worked last time, or planful deliberation. Different decision-making systems are dissociable behaviorally, map onto distinct brain systems, and have different computational demands. For instance, "model-free" decision strategies use prediction errors to estimate scalar action values from previous experience, while "model-based" strategies leverage internal forward models to generate and evaluate potentially rich outcome expectancies. Animal learning studies indicate that expectancies may arise from different sources, including not only forward models but also Pavlovian associations, and the flexibility with which such representations impact behavior may depend on how they are generated. In the light of these considerations, we review the results of van der Meer and Redish (2009a), who found that ventral striatal neurons that respond to reward delivery can also be activated at other points, notably at a decision point where hippocampal forward representations were also observed. These data suggest the possibility that ventral striatal reward representations contribute to model-based expectancies used in deliberative decision making. PMID:21221409

  2. Ethical decision-making made easier. The use of decision trees in case management.

    PubMed

    Storl, H; DuBois, B; Seline, J

    1999-01-01

    Case managers have never before faced the multitude of difficult ethical dilemmas that now confront them daily. Legal, medical, social, and ethical considerations often fly in the face of previously reliable intuitions. The importance and urgency of facing these dilemmas head-on has resulted in clear calls for action. What are the appropriate legal, ethical, and professional parameters for effective decision making? Are normatively sensitive, but also practically sensible protocols possible? In an effort to address these concerns, Alternatives for the Older Adult, Inc., Rock Island, Illinois established an ethics committee to look into possible means of resolving or dissolving commonly occurring dilemmas. As a result of year-long deliberations, the committee formulated a decision-making strategy whose central apparatus is the decision tree--a flowchart of reasonable decisions and their consequent implications. In this article, we explore the development of this approach as well as the theory that underlies it. PMID:10695172

  3. A decision-making process model of young online shoppers.

    PubMed

    Lin, Chin-Feng; Wang, Hui-Fang

    2008-12-01

    Based on the concepts of brand equity, means-end chain, and Web site trust, this study proposes a novel model called the consumption decision-making process of adolescents (CDMPA) to understand adolescents' Internet consumption habits and behavioral intention toward particular sporting goods. The findings of the CDMPA model can help marketers understand adolescents' consumption preferences and habits for developing effective Internet marketing strategies.

  4. Emergent collective decision-making: Control, model and behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Tian

    In this dissertation we study emergent collective decision-making in social groups with time-varying interactions and heterogeneously informed individuals. First we analyze a nonlinear dynamical systems model motivated by animal collective motion with heterogeneously informed subpopulations, to examine the role of uninformed individuals. We find through formal analysis that adding uninformed individuals in a group increases the likelihood of a collective decision. Secondly, we propose a model for human shared decision-making with continuous-time feedback and where individuals have little information about the true preferences of other group members. We study model equilibria using bifurcation analysis to understand how the model predicts decisions based on the critical threshold parameters that represent an individual's tradeoff between social and environmental influences. Thirdly, we analyze continuous-time data of pairs of human subjects performing an experimental shared tracking task using our second proposed model in order to understand transient behavior and the decision-making process. We fit the model to data and show that it reproduces a wide range of human behaviors surprisingly well, suggesting that the model may have captured the mechanisms of observed behaviors. Finally, we study human behavior from a game-theoretic perspective by modeling the aforementioned tracking task as a repeated game with incomplete information. We show that the majority of the players are able to converge to playing Nash equilibrium strategies. We then suggest with simulations that the mean field evolution of strategies in the population resemble replicator dynamics, indicating that the individual strategies may be myopic. Decisions form the basis of control and problems involving deciding collectively between alternatives are ubiquitous in nature and in engineering. Understanding how multi-agent systems make decisions among alternatives also provides insight for designing

  5. 36 CFR 907.14 - Corporation decision making procedures.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Corporation decision making... CORPORATION ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY § 907.14 Corporation decision making procedures. To ensure that at major decision making points all relevant environmental concerns are considered by the Decision Maker,...

  6. 36 CFR 907.14 - Corporation decision making procedures.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Corporation decision making... CORPORATION ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY § 907.14 Corporation decision making procedures. To ensure that at major decision making points all relevant environmental concerns are considered by the Decision Maker,...

  7. 36 CFR 907.14 - Corporation decision making procedures.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2013-07-01 2012-07-01 true Corporation decision making... CORPORATION ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY § 907.14 Corporation decision making procedures. To ensure that at major decision making points all relevant environmental concerns are considered by the Decision Maker,...

  8. 36 CFR 907.14 - Corporation decision making procedures.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Corporation decision making... CORPORATION ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY § 907.14 Corporation decision making procedures. To ensure that at major decision making points all relevant environmental concerns are considered by the Decision Maker,...

  9. 36 CFR 907.14 - Corporation decision making procedures.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Corporation decision making... CORPORATION ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY § 907.14 Corporation decision making procedures. To ensure that at major decision making points all relevant environmental concerns are considered by the Decision Maker,...

  10. Goal Setting and Decision Making by At-Risk Youth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Galotti, Kathleen M.; Kozberg, Steven F.; Gustafon, Mary

    2009-01-01

    Typically, adolescence is a time when individuals begin to make consequential, life-framing decisions. However, much of the decision-making literature focuses on high-risk decisions, such as the use of drugs and alcohol, while much less is known about how adolescents make positive decisions, for example, regarding their educational or career…

  11. Decision-making guide for AGVS

    SciTech Connect

    Castleberry, G. )

    1993-08-12

    Any plant considering an automated guided vehicle system (AGVS) should be ready for good news and bad. The good news is that the AGVS offers enormous benefits, including reduced costs, improved efficiency, and increased flexibility. In short, the vehicles are a key factor to staying competitive in an increasingly competitive world market. The bad news is that putting together a successful system is a time-consuming, complex task. Chances are the decision involves looking at several systems and vendors, various hardware/software options, multiple industrial standards, and an implementation deadline that refuses to budge. A systematic procedure for making the best decision with the least amount of risk is needed. The format outlined in this article is one approach for thoroughly evaluating all AGVS options.

  12. Linking Assessment to Decision Making in Water Resources Planning - Decision Making Frameworks and Case Study Evaluations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broman, D.; Gangopadhyay, S.; Simes, J.

    2015-12-01

    Climate assessments have become an accepted and commonly used component of long term water management and planning. There is substantial variation in the methods used in these assessments; however, managers and decision-makers have come to value their utility to identify future system limitations, and to evaluate future alternatives to ensure satisfactory system performance. A new set of decision-making frameworks have been proposed, including robust decision making (RDM), and decision scaling, that directly address the deep uncertainties found in both future climate, and non-climatic factors. Promising results have been obtained using these new frameworks, offering a more comprehensive understanding of future conditions leading to failures, and identification of measures to address these failures. Data and resource constraints have limited the use of these frameworks within the Bureau of Reclamation. We present here a modified framework that captures the strengths of previously proposed methods while using a suite of analysis tool that allow for a 'rapid climate assessment' to be performed. A scalable approach has been taken where more complex tools can be used if project resources allow. This 'rapid assessment' is demonstrated through two case studies on the Santa Ana and Colorado Rivers where previous climate assessments have been completed. Planning-level measures are used to compare how decision making is affected when using this new decision making framework.

  13. Safer sexual decision making in adolescent women: perspectives from the conflict theory of decision-making.

    PubMed

    Chambers, Kathryn B; Rew, Lynn

    2003-01-01

    Adolescent women are at risk for unintended pregnancies and sexually transmitted diseases, including human immune deficiency virus (HIV)/acquired immunodeficiency deficiency syndrome (AIDS), if they do not engage in safer sexual practices. Adolescent women are biologically, behaviorally, and socially more at risk for sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and HIV than adolescent men. Although abstinence is the safest sexual health practice for adolescent women, once sexual activity begins, safer sexual practices involve condom and contraceptive use, and communicating with sexual partners to negotiate condom use. A number of implicit and explicit decisions are involved in these activities. A number of researchers have examined safer sexual decisions of adolescent women, some of whom have used theory models such as the Transtheoretical Model of Change. Although these findings have contributed to the knowledge base about safer sexual decision making, many questions remain unanswered about how adolescent women make safer sexual decisions. The Conflict Model of Decision Making is presented and discussed as a framework for enhanced understanding of safer sexual decision making by adolescent women.

  14. Supported decision making: a review of the international literature.

    PubMed

    Davidson, Gavin; Kelly, Berni; Macdonald, Geraldine; Rizzo, Maria; Lombard, Louise; Abogunrin, Oluwaseye; Clift-Matthews, Victoria; Martin, Alison

    2015-01-01

    Supported decision making (SDM) refers to the process of supporting people, whose decision making ability may be impaired, to make decisions and so promote autonomy and prevent the need for substitute decision making. There have been developments in SDM but mainly in the areas of intellectual disabilities and end-of-life care rather than in mental health. The main aim of this review was to provide an overview of the available evidence relevant to SDM and so facilitate discussion of how this aspect of law, policy and practice may be further developed in mental health services. The method used for this review was a Rapid Evidence Assessment which involved: developing appropriate search strategies; searching relevant databases and grey literature; then assessing, including and reviewing relevant studies. Included studies were grouped into four main themes: studies reporting stakeholders' views on SDM; studies identifying barriers to the implementation of SDM; studies highlighting ways to improve implementation; and studies on the impact of SDM. The available evidence on implementation and impact, identified by this review, is limited but there are important rights-based, effectiveness and pragmatic arguments for further developing and researching SDM for people with mental health problems.

  15. Linguistic decision making for robot route learning.

    PubMed

    He, Hongmei; McGinnity, Thomas Martin; Coleman, Sonya; Gardiner, Bryan

    2014-01-01

    Machine learning enables the creation of a nonlinear mapping that describes robot-environment interaction, whereas computing linguistics make the interaction transparent. In this paper, we develop a novel application of a linguistic decision tree for a robot route learning problem by dynamically deciding the robot's behavior, which is decomposed into atomic actions in the context of a specified task. We examine the real-time performance of training and control of a linguistic decision tree, and explore the possibility of training a machine learning model in an adaptive system without dual CPUs for parallelization of training and control. A quantified evaluation approach is proposed, and a score is defined for the evaluation of a model's robustness regarding the quality of training data. Compared with the nonlinear system identification nonlinear auto-regressive moving average with eXogeneous inputs model structure with offline parameter estimation, the linguistic decision tree model with online linguistic ID3 learning achieves much better performance, robustness, and reliability.

  16. Information Processing in Decision-Making Systems

    PubMed Central

    van der Meer, Matthijs; Kurth-Nelson, Zeb; Redish, A. David

    2015-01-01

    Decisions result from an interaction between multiple functional systems acting in parallel to process information in very different ways, each with strengths and weaknesses. In this review, the authors address three action-selection components of decision-making: The Pavlovian system releases an action from a limited repertoire of potential actions, such as approaching learned stimuli. Like the Pavlovian system, the habit system is computationally fast but, unlike the Pavlovian system permits arbitrary stimulus-action pairings. These associations are a “forward” mechanism; when a situation is recognized, the action is released. In contrast, the deliberative system is flexible but takes time to process. The deliberative system uses knowledge of the causal structure of the world to search into the future, planning actions to maximize expected rewards. Deliberation depends on the ability to imagine future possibilities, including novel situations, and it allows decisions to be taken without having previously experienced the options. Various anatomical structures have been identified that carry out the information processing of each of these systems: hippocampus constitutes a map of the world that can be used for searching/imagining the future; dorsal striatal neurons represent situation-action associations; and ventral striatum maintains value representations for all three systems. Each system presents vulnerabilities to pathologies that can manifest as psychiatric disorders. Understanding these systems and their relation to neuroanatomy opens up a deeper way to treat the structural problems underlying various disorders. PMID:22492194

  17. Collaborative decision making for sustainable development

    SciTech Connect

    Kinsley, M.J.

    1995-12-31

    For many years, economic development has mean industrial recruitment where business-at-any-cost was preached by a small elite, where civic discord replaced civic discussion, where families made more money but had less to spend, where residents learned to lock their doors, where communities changed from the unique to commonplace and a thousand towns looked alike. But now, scores of communities are saying no to old, worn-out approaches to development and embracing a new kind of development that respects the community and the environment. Created collaboratively by people from all walks of community life, this new approach is called sustainable community economic development. Though new, sustainable development is based on traditional values of stewardship and working together. Its principles are powerful in their simplicity. Its lessons enrich community decision making. This paper describes these principles and lessons. It introduces a community decision-making process that applies them and suggests the kinds of results you can expect from such a process in your town.

  18. Brain and behavior in decision-making.

    PubMed

    Cassey, Peter; Heathcote, Andrew; Brown, Scott D

    2014-07-01

    Speed-accuracy tradeoff (SAT) is an adaptive process balancing urgency and caution when making decisions. Computational cognitive theories, known as "evidence accumulation models", have explained SATs via a manipulation of the amount of evidence necessary to trigger response selection. New light has been shed on these processes by single-cell recordings from monkeys who were adjusting their SAT settings. Those data have been interpreted as inconsistent with existing evidence accumulation theories, prompting the addition of new mechanisms to the models. We show that this interpretation was wrong, by demonstrating that the neural spiking data, and the behavioural data are consistent with existing evidence accumulation theories, without positing additional mechanisms. Our approach succeeds by using the neural data to provide constraints on the cognitive model. Open questions remain about the locus of the link between certain elements of the cognitive models and the neurophysiology, and about the relationship between activity in cortical neurons identified with decision-making vs. activity in downstream areas more closely linked with motor effectors. PMID:24991810

  19. Neurobiology of Decision-Making in Adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Shad, Mujeeb U.; Bidesi, Anup S.; Chen, Li-Ann; Thomas, Binu P.; Ernst, Monique; Rao, Uma

    2010-01-01

    The study examined the relationship between risk-taking behavior during selection of monetary rewards and activations in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) and medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), brain regions that are associated with decision-making. Thirty-three adolescents with no personal or family history of any psychiatric illness were administered the Wheel of Fortune (WOF) task using a functional magnetic resonance imaging protocol. The WOF is a computerized two-choice, probabilistic monetary reward task. Selection of a reward, particularly a low-probability/high-magnitude reward choice, induced greater activations in dorsal ACC, ventrolateral OFC and mPFC than the control condition. Although similar findings have been reported by earlier studies, the results from this study were not impacted by reaction times and expected values and persisted even after controlling for sociodemographic factors. Post-hoc analysis revealed greater activation of ACC and mPFC in response to selection of rewards of larger magnitude than those of smaller magnitude when the probability of reward was maintained constant. Adolescents with greater frequency of high-risk behavior (defined as low-probability/high magnitude reward choice) had lower activation of ACC, OFC and mPFC than those who engaged in this behavior less frequently. These findings suggest individual differences in prefrontal cortical function with regards to decision-making process in adolescents. PMID:20933020

  20. Flood Impact Modelling to support decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Owen, Gareth; Quinn, Paul; O'Donnell, Greg

    2015-04-01

    Much of what is known about the impacts of landuse change and Natural Flood Management (NFM) is at the local/plot scale. Evidence of the downstream impacts at the larger catchment scale is limited. However, the strategic and financial decisions of land managers, stakeholders and policy makers are made at the larger scale. There are a number of techniques that have the potential to scale local impacts to the catchment scale. This poster will show findings for the 30km2 Leven catchment, North Yorkshire, England. A NFM approach has been adopted by the Environment Agency to reduce flood risk within the catchment. A dense network of stream level gauges were installed in the catchment at the commencement of this project to gain a detailed understanding of the catchment behaviour during storm events. A novel Flood Impact Modelling (FIM) approach has been adopted which uses the network of gauges to disaggregate the outlet hydrograph in terms of source locations. Using a combination of expert opinion and local evidence, the model can be used to assess the impacts of distributed changes in land use management and NFM on flood events. A number of potential future landuse and NFM scenarios have been modelled to investigate their impact on flood peaks. These modelled outcomes are mapped to a simple Decision Support Matrix (DSM). The DSM encourages end users (e.g. land managers and policy makers) to develop an NFM scheme by studying the degree to which local runoff can be attenuated and how that flow will propagate through the network to the point of impact. The DSM relates the impact on flood peaks in terms of alterations to soil management practices and landscape flow connectivity (e.g. soil underdrainage), which can be easily understood by farmers and land managers. The DSM and the FIM together provide a simple to use and transparent modelling tool, making best use of expert knowledge, to support decision making.

  1. Decision-making in post-acquittal hospital release: how do forensic evaluators make their decisions?

    PubMed

    Gowensmith, W Neil; Bryant, Amanda E; Vitacco, Michael J

    2014-09-01

    A large number of individuals are acquitted of criminal charges after being found "not guilty by reason of insanity." Most of these individuals are hospitalized and later seek hospital discharge under a court-ordered provision called conditional release ("CR"). Courts rely on opinions from forensic evaluators to determine acquittees' readiness for CR. However, how evaluators make these decisions are unknown. Eighty-nine CR readiness evaluators from nine states were surveyed to understand which factors evaluators prioritize and to understand evaluators' assessment methodologies and their beliefs about the CR process itself. Little uniformity was found among evaluators on any aspect of the decision-making process. Evaluators utilized a wide variety of methodologies when making their decisions on readiness for CR. Moreover, evaluators' conceptualizations of the CR process itself varied widely. The results highlight the difficulty and confusion evaluators face when conducting CR readiness evaluations, and demonstrate the need for enhanced training, statutory guidance, and standardized evaluation protocols for these evaluations.

  2. Key Elements of a Successful Drive toward Marketing Strategy Making

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cann, Cynthia W.; George, Marie A.

    2003-01-01

    A conceptual model is presented that depicts the relationship between an internal marketing function and an organization's readiness to learn. Learning and marketing orientations are identified as components to marketing strategy making. Key organizational functions, including communication and decision-making, are utilized in a framework for…

  3. Modeling boolean decision rules applied to multiple-observer decision strategies.

    PubMed

    Maguire, W

    1996-01-01

    A model that derives multiple-observer decision strategy ROC curves for boolean decision rules applied to binary decisions of two or three observers is presented. It is assumed that covert decision variables consistent with ROC models of observer performance underlie decisions and that readers' decision criteria are in a fixed relationship. The specific parameters of individual ROC curves and the correlational structure that describes interobserver agreement have dramatic effects upon the relative benefits to be derived from different boolean strategies. A common strategy employed in clinical practice, in which the overall decision is positive if any observer makes a positive decision, is most effective when the readers are of similar ability, when they adopt similar decision criteria, when interreader agreement is greater for negative than for positive cases, and when the individual ROC slope is <1.0. Different multiple-observer decision strategies can be evaluated using the model equations. A bootstrap method for testing model-associated hypotheses is described. PMID:8717599

  4. Patient decision making in the face of conflicting medication information

    PubMed Central

    Elstad, Emily; Carpenter, Delesha M.; Devellis, Robert F.

    2012-01-01

    When patients consult more than one source of information about their medications, they may encounter conflicting information. Although conflicting information has been associated with negative outcomes, including worse medication adherence, little is known about how patients make health decisions when they receive conflicting information. The objective of this study was to explore the decision making strategies that individuals with arthritis use when they receive conflicting medication information. Qualitative telephone interviews were conducted with 20 men and women with arthritis. Interview vignettes posed scenarios involving conflicting information from different sources (e.g., doctor, pharmacist, and relative), and respondents were asked how they would respond to the situation. Data analysis involved inductive coding to identify emergent themes and deductive contextualization to make meaning from the emergent themes. In response to conflicting medication information, patients used rules of thumb, trial and error, weighed benefits and risks, and sought more information, especially from a doctor. Patients relied heavily on trial and error when there was no conflicting information involved in the vignette. In contrast, patients used rules of thumb as a unique response to conflicting information. These findings increase our understanding of what patients do when they receive conflicting medication information. Given that patient exposure to conflicting information is likely to increase alongside the proliferation of medication information on the Internet, patients may benefit from assistance in identifying the most appropriate decision strategies for dealing with conflicting information, including information about best information sources. PMID:22943889

  5. Doctors' Decision-Making Tool Could Cut Unnecessary Antibiotic Use

    MedlinePlus

    ... medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_160770.html Doctors' Decision-Making Tool Could Cut Unnecessary Antibiotic Use A drop ... Sept. 2, 2016 (HealthDay News) -- A new decision-making tool for doctors may help reduce unnecessary use ...

  6. "Decision sidestepping: How the motivation for closure prompts individuals to bypass decision making": Correction to Otto et al. (2016).

    PubMed

    2016-09-01

    Reports an error in "Decision sidestepping: How the motivation for closure prompts individuals to bypass decision making" by Ashley S. Otto, Joshua J. Clarkson and Frank R. Kardes (, 2016[Jul], Vol 111[1], 1-16). In the article, the main heading for Experiment 3 was missing due to a production error, and the first sentence of the first paragraph of Experiment 3 should begin as follows: Experiment 2 offered support for the hypothesis that those seeking closure engage in decision sidestepping to reduce the bothersome nature of decision making. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record .) We all too often have to make decisions-from the mundane (e.g., what to eat for breakfast) to the complex (e.g., what to buy a loved one)-and yet there exists a multitude of strategies that allows us to make a decision. This work focuses on a subset of decision strategies that allows individuals to make decisions by bypassing the decision-making process-a phenomenon we term decision sidestepping. Critical to the present manuscript, however, we contend that decision sidestepping stems from the motivation to achieve closure. We link this proposition back to the fundamental nature of closure and how those seeking closure are highly bothered by decision making. As such, we argue that the motivation to achieve closure prompts a reliance on sidestepping strategies (e.g., default bias, choice delegation, status quo bias, inaction inertia, option fixation) to reduce the bothersome nature of decision making. In support of this framework, five experiments demonstrate that (a) those seeking closure are more likely to engage in decision sidestepping, (b) the effect of closure on sidestepping stems from the bothersome nature of decision making, and (c) the reliance on sidestepping results in downstream consequences for subsequent choice. Taken together, these findings offer unique insight into the cognitive motivations stimulating a reliance on decision sidestepping and

  7. "Decision sidestepping: How the motivation for closure prompts individuals to bypass decision making": Correction to Otto et al. (2016).

    PubMed

    2016-09-01

    Reports an error in "Decision sidestepping: How the motivation for closure prompts individuals to bypass decision making" by Ashley S. Otto, Joshua J. Clarkson and Frank R. Kardes (, 2016[Jul], Vol 111[1], 1-16). In the article, the main heading for Experiment 3 was missing due to a production error, and the first sentence of the first paragraph of Experiment 3 should begin as follows: Experiment 2 offered support for the hypothesis that those seeking closure engage in decision sidestepping to reduce the bothersome nature of decision making. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record .) We all too often have to make decisions-from the mundane (e.g., what to eat for breakfast) to the complex (e.g., what to buy a loved one)-and yet there exists a multitude of strategies that allows us to make a decision. This work focuses on a subset of decision strategies that allows individuals to make decisions by bypassing the decision-making process-a phenomenon we term decision sidestepping. Critical to the present manuscript, however, we contend that decision sidestepping stems from the motivation to achieve closure. We link this proposition back to the fundamental nature of closure and how those seeking closure are highly bothered by decision making. As such, we argue that the motivation to achieve closure prompts a reliance on sidestepping strategies (e.g., default bias, choice delegation, status quo bias, inaction inertia, option fixation) to reduce the bothersome nature of decision making. In support of this framework, five experiments demonstrate that (a) those seeking closure are more likely to engage in decision sidestepping, (b) the effect of closure on sidestepping stems from the bothersome nature of decision making, and (c) the reliance on sidestepping results in downstream consequences for subsequent choice. Taken together, these findings offer unique insight into the cognitive motivations stimulating a reliance on decision sidestepping and

  8. Decision making in child protective services: a risky business?

    PubMed

    Camasso, Michael J; Jagannathan, Radha

    2013-09-01

    Child Protective Services (CPS) in the United States has received a torrent of criticism from politicians, the media, child advocate groups, and the general public for a perceived propensity to make decisions that are detrimental to children and families. This perception has resulted in numerous lawsuits and court takeovers of CPS in 35 states, and calls for profound restructuring in other states. A widely prescribed remedy for decision errors and faulty judgments is an improvement of risk assessment strategies that enhance hazard evaluation through an improved understanding of threat potentials and exposure likelihoods. We examine the reliability and validity problems that continue to plague current CPS risk assessment and discuss actions that can be taken in the field, including the use of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve technology to improve the predictive validity of risk assessment strategies.

  9. Framing bioremediation decision making as negotiation: Rationale & guidelineFraming bioremediation decision making as negotiation: Rationale & guidelines

    SciTech Connect

    Bjornstad, David J.; Wolfe, Amy K.

    2004-03-17

    Framing remediation decision making as negotiation: (1) social choice, not technology choice; (2) prompts decision makers to identify interested and affected parties, anticipate objections, effectively address and ameliorate objections, and avoid unacceptable decisions.

  10. The physics of bacterial decision making

    PubMed Central

    Ben-Jacob, Eshel; Lu, Mingyang; Schultz, Daniel; Onuchic, Jose' N.

    2014-01-01

    The choice that bacteria make between sporulation and competence when subjected to stress provides a prototypical example of collective cell fate determination that is stochastic on the individual cell level, yet predictable (deterministic) on the population level. This collective decision is performed by an elaborated gene network. Considerable effort has been devoted to simplify its complexity by taking physics approaches to untangle the basic functional modules that are integrated to form the complete network: (1) A stochastic switch whose transition probability is controlled by two order parameters—population density and internal/external stress. (2) An adaptable timer whose clock rate is normalized by the same two previous order parameters. (3) Sensing units which measure population density and external stress. (4) A communication module that exchanges information about the cells' internal stress levels. (5) An oscillating gate of the stochastic switch which is regulated by the timer. The unique circuit architecture of the gate allows special dynamics and noise management features. The gate opens a window of opportunity in time for competence transitions, during which the circuit generates oscillations that are translated into a chain of short intervals with high transition probability. In addition, the unique architecture of the gate allows filtering of external noise and robustness against variations in circuit parameters and internal noise. We illustrate that a physics approach can be very valuable in investigating the decision process and in identifying its general principles. We also show that both cell-cell variability and noise have important functional roles in the collectively controlled individual decisions. PMID:25401094

  11. Enhanced public participation in NRC decision making

    SciTech Connect

    Cameron, F.X. )

    1992-01-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) published its below-regulatory-concern (BRC) policy statement in 1990. The policy provided a framework within which the NRC would promulgate rules or make licensing decisions to exempt from some or all regulatory controls certain practices involving small quantities of radioactive materials. The NRC's adoption of the BRC policy resulted in widespread public concern over the implications of the new policy. In an effort to better understand the nature of those concerns and to ensure that NRC's decisions related to BRC were based on clear and comprehensive information, the commission initiated an evaluation of the potential use of consensus-building techniques to address BRC issues. Based on the recommendations contained in the feasibility evaluation, the NRC, on June 28, 1991, approved the initiation of a phased consensus process to address BRC issues. The purpose of the consensus process was to provide advice to the commission from the full range of affected interests on the broad spectrum of issues related to the subject of BRC.

  12. Collective decision making in cohesive flocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattacharya, K.; Vicsek, Tamás

    2010-09-01

    Most of us must have been fascinated by the eye-catching displays of collectively moving animals. Schools of fish can move in a rather orderly fashion and then change direction amazingly abruptly. There are a large number of further examples both from the living and the non-living world for phenomena during which the many interacting, permanently moving units seem to arrive at a common behavioural pattern taking place in a short time. As a paradigm of this type of phenomena we consider the problem of how birds arrive at a decision resulting in their synchronized landing. We introduce a simple model to interpret this process. Collective motion prior to landing is modelled using a simple self-propelled particle (SPP) system with a new kind of boundary condition, while the tendency and the sudden propagation of the intention of landing are introduced through rules analogous to the random field Ising model in an external field. We show that our approach is capable of capturing the most relevant features of collective decision making in a system of units with variance of individual intentions and being under an increasing level of pressure to switch states. We find that as a function of the few parameters of our model the collective switching from the flying to the landing state is indeed much sharper than the distribution of individual landing intentions. The transition is accompanied by a number of interesting features discussed in this paper.

  13. Combining disparate data for decision making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gettings, M. E.

    2010-12-01

    Combining information of disparate types from multiple data or model sources is a fundamental task in decision making theory. Procedures for combining and utilizing quantitative data with uncertainties are well-developed in several approaches, but methods for including qualitative and semi-quantitative data are much less so. Possibility theory offers an approach to treating all three data types in an objective and repeatable way. In decision making, biases are frequently present in several forms, including those arising from data quality, data spatial and temporal distribution, and the analyst's knowledge and beliefs as to which data or models are most important. The latter bias is particularly evident in the case of qualitative data and there are numerous examples of analysts feeling that a qualitative dataset is more relevant than a quantified one. Possibility theory and fuzzy logic now provide fairly general rules for quantifying qualitative and semi-quantitative data in ways that are repeatable and minimally biased. Once a set of quantified data and/or model layers is obtained, there are several methods of combining them to obtain insight useful in decision making. These include: various combinations of layers using formal fuzzy logic (for example, layer A and (layer B or layer C) but not layer D); connecting the layers with varying influence links in a Fuzzy Cognitive Map; and using the set of layers for the universe of discourse for agent based model simulations. One example of logical combinations that have proven useful is the definition of possible habitat for valley fever fungus (Coccidioides sp.) using variables such as soil type, altitude, aspect, moisture and temperature. A second example is the delineation of the lithology and possible mineralization of several areas beneath basin fill in southern Arizona. A Fuzzy Cognitive Map example is the impacts of development and operation of a hypothetical mine in an area adjacent to a city. In this model

  14. Planning and Decision Making for Care Transitions

    PubMed Central

    Sörensen, Silvia; Mak, Wingyun; Pinquart, Martin

    2015-01-01

    The need to plan for future health care and residential adjustments increases with age, growing frailty, and restrictions in coverage of long-term care and will continue to grow with population aging. Older adults’ lack of financial preparation for health care costs, insufficient knowledge about available options, and inadequate communication about care-related values has become an increasing public health challenge. This chapter describes a model of Preparation for Future Care (PFC), which encompasses different levels and domains of planning. Research about the extent to which planning is helpful in navigating care transitions is reviewed, and barriers and facilitators of planning including individual, familial, cultural, and national long-term care policy factors are discussed. Planning in the context of dementia and practical approaches that can be taken to enhance PFC is addressed, as well as recommendations for future research in the area of planning and decision making in the context of care transitions. PMID:26207079

  15. Shared Decision Making in Neonatal Quality Improvement.

    PubMed

    Warren, Jamie B; Wiggins, Nikki

    2016-01-01

    Since the Institute of Medicine published Crossing the Quality Chasm in 2001, healthcare systems have become more focused on improving the quality of healthcare delivery. At Oregon Health & Science University and Doernbecher Children's Hospital, we recognize the need to take an interprofessional, team-based approach to improving the care we provide to our current and future patients. We describe here an ongoing quality improvement project in the Doernbecher Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU), with specific attention to the factors we believe have contributed to the implementation and early success of the project. These factors include the history of quality improvement work in our NICU and in the field of neonatology, the "dyad leadership" structure under which we operate in our NICU, and our developing understanding of the concept of "team intelligence." These elements have led to the formation of a team that can practice shared decision making and work as one to realize a shared goal. PMID:27465457

  16. Reflective Decision Making among University Department Heads across Academic Disciplines

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kampmann, Jennifer A.

    2012-01-01

    Within the scope of leadership and management, decision making greatly defines the role of university administrator, in particular, the university department head and his/her ability to be a reflective practitioner in the realm of decision making. Decision making is one characteristic of university department head work which warrants close…

  17. Age Differences in Adaptive Decision Making: The Role of Numeracy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Yiwei; Wang, Jiaxi; Kirk, Robert M.; Pethtel, Olivia L.; Kiefner, Allison E.

    2014-01-01

    The primary purposes of the present study were to examine age differences in adaptive decision making and to evaluate the role of numeracy in mediating the relationship between age and adaptive decision making. Adaptive decision making was assessed by the Cups task (Levin, Weller, Pederson, & Harshman, 2007). Forty-six younger (18 to 24 years…

  18. An Instructional System for Consumer Decision-Making: Teacher's Manual.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Suchman, J. Richard; DiSario, Martha R.

    An instructional system is presented for building the competencies of adult basic education students in making consumer decisions, and offers a guide to teachers who wish to design their own decision-making problems for students. The first four chapters provide a brief introduction, discuss the rational consumer decision-making process and the…

  19. Decision-Making and Vocational Development. Guidance Monograph Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Herr, Edwin L.

    The purposes of this monograph are to: (1) examine the interrelationships of decision making and vocational development, (2) examine the current approaches to understanding decision-making, (3) identify the specific effects upon decision making and vocational development of different personal characteristics, and (4) suggest ways in which the…

  20. A Curriculum To Improve Decision-Making for School Psychologists.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davidow, Joseph R.

    School psychologists are often asked to make significant decisions about students, but there has been a lack of research on how psychologists make such decisions. Obtaining the objective that school psychologists make sound decisions is an important goal, which involves training in how to minimize the adverse impact of predictable biases in human…

  1. A Developmental Approach to the Teaching of Ethical Decision Making.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neukrug, Edward S.

    1996-01-01

    Examines the newly adopted code of ethics, reviews some ethical decision-making models, and hypothesizes how the maturity of a student might mediate the effective use of codes and of decision-making models. Provides a model for human service educators that integrates ethical guidelines and ethical decision-making models. (RJM)

  2. School Board Decision Making: An Analysis of the Process

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crum, Karen S.

    2007-01-01

    The goal of this study was to analyze the characteristics in the school board decision-making process and to discover whether school board members are aware of the characteristics surrounding the school board's decision-making process. Specifically, this study examines the decision-making process of a school board in Virginia, and it provides…

  3. Stress in Decision-Making: Three Causes, Three Cures.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bates, Don

    This paper is a brief description of a conference presentation consisting of a 2.5-hour clinic session on decision-making. A motion picture, "The Making of a Decision," followed by a lively discussion, was used to illustrate the strenghts and weaknesses of administrators in their decision-making process. Presented in the film are three different…

  4. Heuristic Reasoning in Chemistry: Making decisions about acid strength

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McClary, LaKeisha; Talanquer, Vicente

    2011-07-01

    The characterization of students' reasoning strategies is of central importance in the development of instructional strategies that foster meaningful learning. In particular, the identification of shortcut reasoning procedures (heuristics) used by students to reduce cognitive load can help us devise strategies to facilitate the development of more analytical ways of thinking. The central goal of this qualitative study was thus to investigate heuristic reasoning as used by organic chemistry college students, focusing our attention on their ability to predict the relative acid strength of chemical compounds represented using explicit composition and structural features (i.e., structural formulas). Our results indicated that many study participants relied heavily on one or more of the following heuristics to make most of their decisions: reduction, representativeness, and lexicographic. Despite having visual access to reach structural information about the substances included in each ranking task, many students relied on isolated composition features to make their decisions. However, the specific characteristics of the tasks seemed to trigger heuristic reasoning in different ways. Although the use of heuristics allowed students to simplify some components of the ranking tasks and generate correct responses, it often led them astray. Very few study participants predicted the correct trends based on scientifically acceptable arguments. Our results suggest the need for instructional interventions that explicitly develop college chemistry students' abilities to monitor their thinking and evaluate the effectiveness of analytical versus heuristic reasoning strategies in different contexts.

  5. Decision-Making Self-Efficacy and Barriers in Career Decision Making among Community College Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelly, Rosemary R.; Hatcher, Tim

    2013-01-01

    This study explored differences between career decision-making self-efficacy (CDMSE) and career barriers of students enrolled in applied technology programs compared to those enrolled in college transfer. Participants in the ex post facto cross-sectional survey included 787 students at a community college. The following research questions were…

  6. Systems Engineering Techniques for ALS Decision Making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rodriquez, Luis F.; Drysdale, Alan E.; Jones, Harry; Levri, Julie A.

    2004-01-01

    The Advanced Life Support (ALS) Metric is the predominant tool for predicting the cost of ALS systems. Metric goals for the ALS Program are daunting, requiring a threefold increase in the ALS Metric by 2010. Confounding the problem, the rate new ALS technologies reach the maturity required for consideration in the ALS Metric and the rate at which new configurations are developed is slow, limiting the search space and potentially giving the perspective of a ALS technology, the ALS Metric may remain elusive. This paper is a sequel to a paper published in the proceedings of the 2003 ICES conference entitled, "Managing to the metric: an approach to optimizing life support costs." The conclusions of that paper state that the largest contributors to the ALS Metric should be targeted by ALS researchers and management for maximum metric reductions. Certainly, these areas potentially offer large potential benefits to future ALS missions; however, the ALS Metric is not the only decision-making tool available to the community. To facilitate decision-making within the ALS community a combination of metrics should be utilized, such as the Equivalent System Mass (ESM)-based ALS metric, but also those available through techniques such as life cycle costing and faithful consideration of the sensitivity of the assumed models and data. Often a lack of data is cited as the reason why these techniques are not considered for utilization. An existing database development effort within the ALS community, known as OPIS, may provide the opportunity to collect the necessary information to enable the proposed systems analyses. A review of these additional analysis techniques is provided, focusing on the data necessary to enable these. The discussion is concluded by proposing how the data may be utilized by analysts in the future.

  7. Decision-making and evacuation planning for flood risk management in the Netherlands.

    PubMed

    Kolen, Bas; Helsloot, Ira

    2014-07-01

    A traditional view of decision-making for evacuation planning is that, given an uncertain threat, there is a deterministic way of defining the best decision. In other words, there is a linear relation between threat, decision, and execution consequences. Alternatives and the impact of uncertainties are not taken into account. This study considers the 'top strategic decision-making' for mass evacuation owing to flooding in the Netherlands. It reveals that the top strategic decision-making process itself is probabilistic because of the decision-makers involved and their crisis managers (as advisers). The paper concludes that deterministic planning is not sufficient, and it recommends probabilistic planning that considers uncertainties in the decision-making process itself as well as other uncertainties, such as forecasts, citizens responses, and the capacity of infrastructure. This results in less optimistic, but more realistic, strategies and a need to pay attention to alternative strategies.

  8. Biomolecular decision-making process for self assembly.

    SciTech Connect

    Osbourn, Gordon Cecil

    2005-01-01

    The brain is often identified with decision-making processes in the biological world. In fact, single cells, single macromolecules (proteins) and populations of molecules also make simple decisions. These decision processes are essential to survival and to the biological self-assembly and self-repair processes that we seek to emulate. How do these tiny systems make effective decisions? How do they make decisions in concert with a cooperative network of other molecules or cells? How can we emulate the decision-making behaviors of small-scale biological systems to program and self-assemble microsystems? This LDRD supported research to answer these questions. Our work included modeling and simulation of protein populations to help us understand, mimic, and categorize molecular decision-making mechanisms that nonequilibrium systems can exhibit. This work is an early step towards mimicking such nanoscale and microscale biomolecular decision-making processes in inorganic systems.

  9. Legal briefing: Shared decision making and patient decision aids.

    PubMed

    Pope, Thaddeus Mason; Hexum, Melinda

    2013-01-01

    This "Legal Briefing" column covers recent legal developments involving patient decision aids.This topic has been the subject of recent articles in JCE. It is included in the 2010 Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. And it has received significant attention in the biomedical literature, including a new book, a thematic issue of Health Affairs, and a recent article in the New England Journal of Medicine. Moreover, physicians and health systems across the United States are increasingly integrating decision aids into their clinical practice. Both federal and state laws play a significant role in promoting this expanded use. On the other hand, concerns about liability could stymie development and implementation. We categorize legal developments concerning patient decision aids into the following five sections: 1. Development of decision aids. 2. Effectiveness of decision aids. 3. Federal regulation of decision aids. 4. State regulation of decision aids. 5. Legal concerns regarding decision aids.

  10. Effects of Computer-Assisted Career Decision Making on Vocational Identity and Career Exploratory Behaviors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mau, Wei-Cheng

    1999-01-01

    Undergraduates (n=108) were assigned to six groups: computerized Career Decision-Making (CDM), computerized Self-Directed Search (SDS), CHOICES, CDM and SDS, wait-listed, or control. Teaching decision-making strategies through CDM improved short- and long-term vocational identity; the informational approach (CHOICES) had long-term impact. Despite…

  11. Effects of Direct and Indirect Instruction on Fostering Decision-Making Competence in Socioscientific Issues

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bottcher, Florian; Meisert, Anke

    2013-01-01

    In this study the effects of different learning environments on the promotion of decision-making competence for the socioscientific issue of genetically modified crops is investigated. The comparison focuses on direct vs. indirect instructions. Therefore on the one hand a sophisticated decision-making strategy was presented to the directly…

  12. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making

    PubMed Central

    Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E.

    2015-01-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people’s confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality. PMID:26517475

  13. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.

    PubMed

    Aitchison, Laurence; Bang, Dan; Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E

    2015-10-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people's confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality. PMID:26517475

  14. Multiple-reason decision making based on automatic processing.

    PubMed

    Glöckner, Andreas; Betsch, Tilmann

    2008-09-01

    It has been repeatedly shown that in decisions under time constraints, individuals predominantly use noncompensatory strategies rather than complex compensatory ones. The authors argue that these findings might be due not to limitations of cognitive capacity but instead to limitations of information search imposed by the commonly used experimental tool Mouselab (J. W. Payne, J. R. Bettman, & E. J. Johnson, 1988). The authors tested this assumption in 3 experiments. In the 1st experiment, information was openly presented, whereas in the 2nd experiment, the standard Mouselab program was used under different time limits. The results indicate that individuals are able to compute weighted additive decision strategies extremely quickly if information search is not restricted by the experimental procedure. In a 3rd experiment, these results were replicated using more complex decision tasks, and the major alternative explanations that individuals use more complex heuristics or that they merely encode the constellation of cues were ruled out. In sum, the findings challenge the fundaments of bounded rationality and highlight the importance of automatic processes in decision making.

  15. A compensation index for multiattribute decision strategies.

    PubMed

    Koele, P; Westenberg, M R

    1995-09-01

    In multiattribute decision problems, the subject has to evaluate a number of alternatives with given values on a number of attributes, in order to arrive at some conclusion about the attractiveness or utility of these alternatives. The information processing procedure leading to a conclusion is called adecision strategy, and one of the main research topics in multiattribute decision research has been the extent to which these strategies follow compensatory principles. Judges are said to follow compensatory strategies when low values on some attributes are compensated for by high values on other attributes. In process tracing studies using the information board technique, descriptions of decision strategies are usually based on three indices of the information search process:variability of search,search pattern (Payne, 1976), anddepth of search. Variability of search, defined as the standard deviation of the proportion of information searched per alternative, is considered to give an indication of the degree of compensation of a decision strategy, compensation being smaller as variability increases. In this article, we propose an alternative way for establishing the degree of compensation of decision strategies in information board studies. We argue that the degree of compensation depends on both variability of searchand depth of search (the proportion of information searched), and that a valid compensation index has to be a multiplicative function of these two indices.

  16. A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more

  17. When the patient lacks decision-making capacity.

    PubMed

    Erlen, J A

    1995-01-01

    Our society supports the right of its members to be self-determining and to make decisions based on their personal values and beliefs. However, what happens when a person lacks the capacity to make decisions? The author identifies criteria for determining decision-making capacity and discusses the surrogate decision maker, the best interests standard, and the substituted judgment standard. Nursing implications focusing on treating the patient with dignity and respect and protecting the patient's rights are discussed.

  18. The involvement of the striatum in decision making.

    PubMed

    Goulet-Kennedy, Julie; Labbe, Sara; Fecteau, Shirley

    2016-03-01

    Decision making has been extensively studied in the context of economics and from a group perspective, but still little is known on individual decision making. Here we discuss the different cognitive processes involved in decision making and its associated neural substrates. The putative conductors in decision making appear to be the prefrontal cortex and the striatum. Impaired decision-making skills in various clinical populations have been associated with activity in the prefrontal cortex and in the striatum. We highlight the importance of strengthening the degree of integration of both cognitive and neural substrates in order to further our understanding of decision-making skills. In terms of cognitive paradigms, there is a need to improve the ecological value of experimental tasks that assess decision making in various contexts and with rewards; this would help translate laboratory learnings into real-life benefits. In terms of neural substrates, the use of neuroimaging techniques helps characterize the neural networks associated with decision making; more recently, ways to modulate brain activity, such as in the prefrontal cortex and connected regions (eg, striatum), with noninvasive brain stimulation have also shed light on the neural and cognitive substrates of decision making. Together, these cognitive and neural approaches might be useful for patients with impaired decision-making skills. The drive behind this line of work is that decision-making abilities underlie important aspects of wellness, health, security, and financial and social choices in our daily lives. PMID:27069380

  19. The involvement of the striatum in decision making.

    PubMed

    Goulet-Kennedy, Julie; Labbe, Sara; Fecteau, Shirley

    2016-03-01

    Decision making has been extensively studied in the context of economics and from a group perspective, but still little is known on individual decision making. Here we discuss the different cognitive processes involved in decision making and its associated neural substrates. The putative conductors in decision making appear to be the prefrontal cortex and the striatum. Impaired decision-making skills in various clinical populations have been associated with activity in the prefrontal cortex and in the striatum. We highlight the importance of strengthening the degree of integration of both cognitive and neural substrates in order to further our understanding of decision-making skills. In terms of cognitive paradigms, there is a need to improve the ecological value of experimental tasks that assess decision making in various contexts and with rewards; this would help translate laboratory learnings into real-life benefits. In terms of neural substrates, the use of neuroimaging techniques helps characterize the neural networks associated with decision making; more recently, ways to modulate brain activity, such as in the prefrontal cortex and connected regions (eg, striatum), with noninvasive brain stimulation have also shed light on the neural and cognitive substrates of decision making. Together, these cognitive and neural approaches might be useful for patients with impaired decision-making skills. The drive behind this line of work is that decision-making abilities underlie important aspects of wellness, health, security, and financial and social choices in our daily lives.

  20. The involvement of the striatum in decision making

    PubMed Central

    Goulet-Kennedy, Julie; Labbe, Sara; Fecteau, Shirley

    2016-01-01

    Decision making has been extensively studied in the context of economics and from a group perspective, but still little is known on individual decision making. Here we discuss the different cognitive processes involved in decision making and its associated neural substrates. The putative conductors in decision making appear to be the prefrontal cortex and the striatum. Impaired decision-making skills in various clinical populations have been associated with activity in the prefrontal cortex and in the striatum. We highlight the importance of strengthening the degree of integration of both cognitive and neural substrates in order to further our understanding of decision-making skills. In terms of cognitive paradigms, there is a need to improve the ecological value of experimental tasks that assess decision making in various contexts and with rewards; this would help translate laboratory learnings into real-life benefits. In terms of neural substrates, the use of neuroimaging techniques helps characterize the neural networks associated with decision making; more recently, ways to modulate brain activity, such as in the prefrontal cortex and connected regions (eg, striatum), with noninvasive brain stimulation have also shed light on the neural and cognitive substrates of decision making. Together, these cognitive and neural approaches might be useful for patients with impaired decision-making skills. The drive behind this line of work is that decision-making abilities underlie important aspects of wellness, health, security, and financial and social choices in our daily lives. PMID:27069380

  1. How decisions happen: focal points and blind spots in interdependent decision making.

    PubMed

    Halevy, Nir; Chou, Eileen Y

    2014-03-01

    Decision makers often simplify decision problems by ignoring readily available information. The current multimethod research investigated which types of information about interdependence situations are psychologically prominent to decision makers and which tend to go unnoticed. Study 1 used eye-tracking measures to investigate how decision makers allocate their attention in interdependence situations and revealed that individuals fixated on mutual cooperation earlier and longer as compared with alternative combinations of strategies and outcomes. In addition, participants' behavioral cooperation was consistent with their attention allocation. Study 2 introduced a novel information-search paradigm: Participants exchanged yes/no questions and answers to discover which of 25 different games their counterpart chose. Analyzing the contents of participants' questions showed that, consistent with Study 1, participants focused primarily on desirable outcomes and symmetric behavioral choices. Study 3 revealed that outcome desirability is a robust basis of psychological prominence across different types of social relations; in contrast, the psychological prominence of symmetry was moderated by the nature of social relations. Study 4 revealed that whether different bases of psychological prominence directed individuals' attention to the same aspects of the decision-making task moderated the effect of information availability on decision latency and cooperation rates. Taken together, these findings contribute to the mapping of bounded rationality, demonstrate how people think about their interdependence, and enhance our understanding of how decisions happen. PMID:24377356

  2. Learner Decision Making in the Inclusion Style of Teaching.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Byra, Mark; Jenkins, Jayne

    In the inclusion style of teaching, learners must make decisions about level of task difficulty. They must decide at which level to enter the presented task and then, for additional sets of trials, decide whether to perform the task the same way, make it more difficult, or make it less difficult. This study examined learner decision making in a…

  3. Scaffolding Across the Lifespan in History-Dependent Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Cooper, Jessica A.; Worthy, Darrell A.; Gorlick, Marissa A.; Maddox, W. Todd

    2013-01-01

    We examined the relationship between pressure and age-related changes in decision-making using a task where currently available rewards depend upon the participant’s previous history of choices. Optimal responding in this task requires the participant to learn how their current choices affect changes in the future rewards given for each option. Building upon the scaffolding theory of aging and cognition we predicted that when additional frontal resources are available, compensatory recruitment leads to increased monitoring and increased use of heuristic-based strategies, ultimately leading to better performance. Specifically, we predicted that scaffolding would result in an age-related performance advantage under no pressure conditions. We also predicted that, while younger adults would engage in scaffolding under pressure, older adults would not have additional resources available for increased scaffolding under pressure-packed conditions, leading to an age-related performance deficit. Both predictions were supported by the data. In addition, computational models were used to evaluate decision-making strategies employed by each participant group. As expected, older adults under no pressure conditions and younger adults under pressure showed increased use of heuristic-based strategies relative to older adults under pressure and younger adults under no pressure, respectively. These results are consistent with the notion that scaffolding can occur across the lifespan in the face of an environmental challenge. PMID:23795765

  4. Adaptive criterion setting in perceptual decision making.

    PubMed

    Stüttgen, Maik C; Yildiz, Ali; Güntürkün, Onur

    2011-09-01

    Pigeons responded in a perceptual categorization task with six different stimuli (shades of gray), three of which were to be classified as "light" or "dark", respectively. Reinforcement probability for correct responses was varied from 0.2 to 0.6 across blocks of sessions and was unequal for correct light and dark responses. Introduction of a new reinforcement contingency resulted in a biphasic process of adjustment: First, choices were strongly biased towards the favored alternative, which was followed by a shift of preference back towards unbiased choice allocation. The data are well described by a signal detection model in which adjustment to a change in reinforcement contingency is modeled as the change of a criterion along a decision axis with fixed stimulus distributions. Moreover, the model shows that pigeons, after an initial overadjustment, distribute their responses almost optimally, although the overall benefit from doing so is extremely small. The strong and swift effect of minute changes in overall reinforcement probability precludes a choice strategy directly maximizing expected value, contrary to the assumption of signal detection theory. Instead, the rapid adjustments observed can be explained by a model in which reinforcement probabilities for each action, contingent on perceived stimulus intensity, determine choice allocation.

  5. Artificial Neural Networks in Mammography Interpretation and Diagnostic Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Burnside, Elizabeth S.

    2013-01-01

    Screening mammography is the most effective means for early detection of breast cancer. Although general rules for discriminating malignant and benign lesions exist, radiologists are unable to perfectly detect and classify all lesions as malignant and benign, for many reasons which include, but are not limited to, overlap of features that distinguish malignancy, difficulty in estimating disease risk, and variability in recommended management. When predictive variables are numerous and interact, ad hoc decision making strategies based on experience and memory may lead to systematic errors and variability in practice. The integration of computer models to help radiologists increase the accuracy of mammography examinations in diagnostic decision making has gained increasing attention in the last two decades. In this study, we provide an overview of one of the most commonly used models, artificial neural networks (ANNs), in mammography interpretation and diagnostic decision making and discuss important features in mammography interpretation. We conclude by discussing several common limitations of existing research on ANN-based detection and diagnostic models and provide possible future research directions. PMID:23781276

  6. The Rational Adolescent: Strategic Information Processing during Decision Making Revealed by Eye Tracking

    PubMed Central

    Kwak, Youngbin; Payne, John W.; Cohen, Andrew L.; Huettel, Scott A.

    2015-01-01

    Adolescence is often viewed as a time of irrational, risky decision-making – despite adolescents' competence in other cognitive domains. In this study, we examined the strategies used by adolescents (N=30) and young adults (N=47) to resolve complex, multi-outcome economic gambles. Compared to adults, adolescents were more likely to make conservative, loss-minimizing choices consistent with economic models. Eye-tracking data showed that prior to decisions, adolescents acquired more information in a more thorough manner; that is, they engaged in a more analytic processing strategy indicative of trade-offs between decision variables. In contrast, young adults' decisions were more consistent with heuristics that simplified the decision problem, at the expense of analytic precision. Collectively, these results demonstrate a counter-intuitive developmental transition in economic decision making: adolescents' decisions are more consistent with rational-choice models, while young adults more readily engage task-appropriate heuristics. PMID:26388664

  7. A simple threshold rule is sufficient to explain sophisticated collective decision-making.

    PubMed

    Robinson, Elva J H; Franks, Nigel R; Ellis, Samuel; Okuda, Saki; Marshall, James A R

    2011-01-01

    Decision-making animals can use slow-but-accurate strategies, such as making multiple comparisons, or opt for simpler, faster strategies to find a 'good enough' option. Social animals make collective decisions about many group behaviours including foraging and migration. The key to the collective choice lies with individual behaviour. We present a case study of a collective decision-making process (house-hunting ants, Temnothorax albipennis), in which a previously proposed decision strategy involved both quality-dependent hesitancy and direct comparisons of nests by scouts. An alternative possible decision strategy is that scouting ants use a very simple quality-dependent threshold rule to decide whether to recruit nest-mates to a new site or search for alternatives. We use analytical and simulation modelling to demonstrate that this simple rule is sufficient to explain empirical patterns from three studies of collective decision-making in ants, and can account parsimoniously for apparent comparison by individuals and apparent hesitancy (recruitment latency) effects, when available nests differ strongly in quality. This highlights the need to carefully design experiments to detect individual comparison. We present empirical data strongly suggesting that best-of-n comparison is not used by individual ants, although individual sequential comparisons are not ruled out. However, by using a simple threshold rule, decision-making groups are able to effectively compare options, without relying on any form of direct comparison of alternatives by individuals. This parsimonious mechanism could promote collective rationality in group decision-making.

  8. Parental authority and pediatric bioethical decision making.

    PubMed

    Cherry, Mark J

    2010-10-01

    In this paper, I offer a view beyond that which would narrowly reduce the role of parents in medical decision making to acting as custodians of the best interests of children and toward an account of family authority and family autonomy. As a fundamental social unit, the good of the family is usually appreciated, at least in part, in terms of its ability successfully to instantiate its core moral and cultural understandings as well as to pass on such commitments to future generations. The putative rights of children to expression, information, freedom of thought, conscience, religion, and to freedom of association with others are, in this essay, assessed from the perspective of those conditions necessary for the family to function as a moral community. In so doing, I respond to the move to liberate children from parental authority and to effect the transformation of the family as implied by the United Nations' "Convention on the Rights of the Child" and the pediatric bioethics it supports.

  9. Future Trends in Business Travel Decision Making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mason, Keith J.

    2002-01-01

    This research surveys twenty large companies and their travellers to identify and evaluate the effects of pressures on the business travel market in the future. The influence of the following areas on the decision making process are addressed: (1) Corporate travel policies and increasing professionalism in corporate purchasing; (2) The development of global strategic airline alliances; (3) The emergence of low cost airlines on short haul markets; and (4) The development of internet based booking tools and travel agency IT. The survey shows differences in views between travel managers, and travellers with regard to corporate travel policies. While travel managers see policy rules, travellers interpret these as guidelines, indicating travel managers will need to take further actions to exercise true control of travel budgets. The data shows that companies are more likely to prescribe a class of airline ticket, than the choice of airline itself. Corporate hierarchical bias in travel policies is still common both for short and particularly long haul flying. Other findings show that while travel managers believe that their companies are likely to sign global deals with strategic airline groups within a five year period in a bid to consolidating spending, they also believe that nearly a third of short haul flying will be taken with low cost carriers, indicating further penetration in this business travel market by these carriers. The paper also provides other predictions about the business travel market, based on the survey findings.

  10. Liberal rationalism and medical decision-making.

    PubMed

    Savulescu, Julian

    1997-04-01

    I contrast Robert Veatch's recent liberal vision of medical decision-making with a more rationalist liberal model. According to Veatch, physicians are biased in their determination of what is in their patient's overall interests in favour of their medical interests. Because of the extent of this bias, we should abandon the practice of physicians offering what they guess to be the best treatment option. Patients should buddy up with physicians who share the same values -- 'deep value pairing'. The goal of choice is maximal promotion of patient values. I argue that if subjectivism about value and valuing is true, this move is plausible. However, if objectivism about value is true -- that there really are states which are good for people regardless of whether they desire to be in them -- then we should accept a more rationalist liberal alternative. According to this alternative, what is required to decide which course is best is rational dialogue between physicians and patients, both about the patient's circumstances and her values, and not the seeking out of people, physicians or others, who share the same values. Rational discussion requires that physicians be reasonable and empathic. I describe one possible account of a reasonable physician.

  11. Swift and Smart Decision Making: Heuristics that Work

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoy, Wayne K.; Tarter, C. J.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: The aim of this paper is to examine the research literature on decision making and identify and develop a set of heuristics that work for school decision makers. Design/methodology/approach: This analysis is a synthesis of the research on decision-making heuristics that work. Findings: A set of nine rules for swift and smart decision…

  12. Decision-Making Styles and Vocational Maturity: An Alternative Perspective.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blustein, David L.

    1987-01-01

    Examined the relationship between decision-making styles and vocational maturity with a focus on the current discrepancy between research and theory regarding the utility of rational decision making. Results were consistent across 177 community college students, in that a reliance upon the rational style was the only significant decision-making…

  13. High School Students' Career-Related Decision-Making Difficulties.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gati, Itamar; Saka, Noa

    2001-01-01

    Examines the construct of career-related decision-making difficulties among 1,843 Israeli adolescents. Three versions of the Career Decision-Making Difficulties Questionnaire (CDDQ) were constructed to match three decision situations. The structures of the revised CDDQ were found similar to that proposed by I. Gati et al. (1996). Boys reported…

  14. Decision making under uncertainty: a neural model based on partially observable markov decision processes.

    PubMed

    Rao, Rajesh P N

    2010-01-01

    A fundamental problem faced by animals is learning to select actions based on noisy sensory information and incomplete knowledge of the world. It has been suggested that the brain engages in Bayesian inference during perception but how such probabilistic representations are used to select actions has remained unclear. Here we propose a neural model of action selection and decision making based on the theory of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). Actions are selected based not on a single "optimal" estimate of state but on the posterior distribution over states (the "belief" state). We show how such a model provides a unified framework for explaining experimental results in decision making that involve both information gathering and overt actions. The model utilizes temporal difference (TD) learning for maximizing expected reward. The resulting neural architecture posits an active role for the neocortex in belief computation while ascribing a role to the basal ganglia in belief representation, value computation, and action selection. When applied to the random dots motion discrimination task, model neurons representing belief exhibit responses similar to those of LIP neurons in primate neocortex. The appropriate threshold for switching from information gathering to overt actions emerges naturally during reward maximization. Additionally, the time course of reward prediction error in the model shares similarities with dopaminergic responses in the basal ganglia during the random dots task. For tasks with a deadline, the model learns a decision making strategy that changes with elapsed time, predicting a collapsing decision threshold consistent with some experimental studies. The model provides a new framework for understanding neural decision making and suggests an important role for interactions between the neocortex and the basal ganglia in learning the mapping between probabilistic sensory representations and actions that maximize rewards.

  15. Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Decision Making During Spacecraft Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2009-01-01

    Decisions made during the operational phase of a space mission often have significant and immediate consequences. Without the explicit consideration of the risks involved and their representation in a solid model, it is very likely that these risks are not considered systematically in trade studies. Wrong decisions during the operational phase of a space mission can lead to immediate system failure whereas correct decisions can help recover the system even from faulty conditions. A problem of special interest is the determination of the system fault protection strategies upon the occurrence of faults within the system. Decisions regarding the fault protection strategy also heavily rely on a correct understanding of the state of the system and an integrated risk model that represents the various possible scenarios and their respective likelihoods. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) modeling is applicable to the full lifecycle of a space mission project, from concept development to preliminary design, detailed design, development and operations. The benefits and utilities of the model, however, depend on the phase of the mission for which it is used. This is because of the difference in the key strategic decisions that support each mission phase. The focus of this paper is on describing the particular methods used for PRA modeling during the operational phase of a spacecraft by gleaning insight from recently conducted case studies on two operational Mars orbiters. During operations, the key decisions relate to the commands sent to the spacecraft for any kind of diagnostics, anomaly resolution, trajectory changes, or planning. Often, faults and failures occur in the parts of the spacecraft but are contained or mitigated before they can cause serious damage. The failure behavior of the system during operations provides valuable data for updating and adjusting the related PRA models that are built primarily based on historical failure data. The PRA models, in turn

  16. Understanding and shifting drug-related decisions: contributions of automatic decision-making processes.

    PubMed

    Carpenter, Kenneth M; Bedi, Gillinder; Vadhan, Nehal P

    2015-08-01

    While substance use is common, only a minority of individuals who use drugs or alcohol develop problematic use. An understanding of the factors underlying the transition from substance use to misuse may improve prevention and intervention efforts. A key feature of substance misuse is ongoing decisions to use drugs or alcohol despite escalating negative consequences. Research findings highlight the importance of both relatively automatic, associative cognitive processes and relatively controlled, deliberative, and rational-analytic cognitive processes, for understanding situational decisions to use drugs. In this review, we discuss several cognitive component processes that may contribute to decision-making that promotes substance use and misuse, with a focus on more automatic processes. A growing body of evidence indicates that relative differences in the strength of these component processes can account for individual differences in the transition from substance use to misuse and may offer important avenues for developing novel intervention strategies.

  17. Understanding and shifting drug-related decisions: Contributions of automatic decision-making processes

    PubMed Central

    Carpenter, Kenneth M.; Bedi, Gillinder; Vadhan, Nehal P.

    2015-01-01

    While substance use is common, only a minority of individuals who use drugs or alcohol develop problematic use. An understanding of the factors underlying the transition from substance use to misuse may improve prevention and intervention efforts. A key feature of substance misuse is ongoing decisions to use drugs or alcohol despite escalating negative consequences. Research findings highlight the importance of both relatively automatic, associative cognitive processes and relatively controlled, deliberative, and rational-analytic cognitive processes, for understanding situational decisions to use drugs. In this review, we discuss several cognitive component processes that may contribute to decision-making that promotes substance use and misuse, with a focus on more automatic processes. A growing body of evidence indicates that relative differences in the strength of these component processes can account for individual differences in the transition from substance use to misuse, and may offer important avenues for developing novel intervention strategies. PMID:26084667

  18. Decision-making in post-acquittal hospital release: how do forensic evaluators make their decisions?

    PubMed

    Gowensmith, W Neil; Bryant, Amanda E; Vitacco, Michael J

    2014-09-01

    A large number of individuals are acquitted of criminal charges after being found "not guilty by reason of insanity." Most of these individuals are hospitalized and later seek hospital discharge under a court-ordered provision called conditional release ("CR"). Courts rely on opinions from forensic evaluators to determine acquittees' readiness for CR. However, how evaluators make these decisions are unknown. Eighty-nine CR readiness evaluators from nine states were surveyed to understand which factors evaluators prioritize and to understand evaluators' assessment methodologies and their beliefs about the CR process itself. Little uniformity was found among evaluators on any aspect of the decision-making process. Evaluators utilized a wide variety of methodologies when making their decisions on readiness for CR. Moreover, evaluators' conceptualizations of the CR process itself varied widely. The results highlight the difficulty and confusion evaluators face when conducting CR readiness evaluations, and demonstrate the need for enhanced training, statutory guidance, and standardized evaluation protocols for these evaluations. PMID:25283765

  19. Improving IT Portfolio Management Decision Confidence Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making and Hypervariate Display Techniques

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Landmesser, John Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Information technology (IT) investment decision makers are required to process large volumes of complex data. An existing body of knowledge relevant to IT portfolio management (PfM), decision analysis, visual comprehension of large volumes of information, and IT investment decision making suggest Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and…

  20. Strategies That Make Learning Last

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Willingham, Daniel T.

    2014-01-01

    Researchers have asked college students how they study, and the results show that most use four inefficient strategies that do not often work: (1) reading assigned chapter, trying to understand individual sentences as he goes but not necessarily ensuring he's got the overall gist; (2) marking what he takes to be important points with a…

  1. Integration of professional judgement and decision-making in high-level adventure sports coaching practice.

    PubMed

    Collins, Loel; Collins, Dave

    2015-01-01

    This study examined the integration of professional judgement and decision-making processes in adventure sports coaching. The study utilised a thematic analysis approach to investigate the decision-making practices of a sample of high-level adventure sports coaches over a series of sessions. Results revealed that, in order to make judgements and decisions in practice, expert coaches employ a range of practical and pedagogic management strategies to create and opportunistically use time for decision-making. These approaches include span of control and time management strategies to facilitate the decision-making process regarding risk management, venue selection, aims, objectives, session content, and differentiation of the coaching process. The implication for coaches, coach education, and accreditation is the recognition and training of the approaches that "create time" for the judgements in practice, namely "creating space to think". The paper concludes by offering a template for a more expertise-focused progression in adventure sports coaching.

  2. Incorporating affective bias in models of human decision making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nygren, Thomas E.

    1991-01-01

    Research on human decision making has traditionally focused on how people actually make decisions, how good their decisions are, and how their decisions can be improved. Recent research suggests that this model is inadequate. Affective as well as cognitive components drive the way information about relevant outcomes and events is perceived, integrated, and used in the decision making process. The affective components include how the individual frames outcomes as good or bad, whether the individual anticipates regret in a decision situation, the affective mood state of the individual, and the psychological stress level anticipated or experienced in the decision situation. A focus of the current work has been to propose empirical studies that will attempt to examine in more detail the relationships between the latter two critical affective influences (mood state and stress) on decision making behavior.

  3. A control-theory model for human decision-making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levison, W. H.; Tanner, R. B.

    1971-01-01

    A model for human decision making is an adaptation of an optimal control model for pilot/vehicle systems. The models for decision and control both contain concepts of time delay, observation noise, optimal prediction, and optimal estimation. The decision making model was intended for situations in which the human bases his decision on his estimate of the state of a linear plant. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (a) single decision tasks, (b) two-decision tasks, and (c) simultaneous manual control and decision making. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance can be predicted to within an accuracy of 10 percent. Agreement is less good for the simultaneous decision and control situation.

  4. Decision-Making, Science and Gasoline Additives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weaver, J. W.; Small, M. C.

    2001-12-01

    Methyl-tert butyl ether (MTBE) has been used as a gasoline additive to serve two major purposes. The first use was as an octane-enhancer to replace organic lead, beginning in 1979. The second use, which began about 1992, was as a oxygenated additive to meet requirements of the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990. Generally, the amount of MTBE used for octane enhancement was lower than that required to meet CAAA requirements. An unintended consequence of MTBE use has been widespread groundwater contamination. The decision to use certain amounts of MTBE or other chemcials as gasoline additives is the outcome of economic, regulatory, policy, political, and scientific considerations. Decision makers ask questions such as "How do ground water impacts change with changing MTBE content? How many wells would be impacted? and What are the associated costs?" These are best answered through scientific inquiry, but many different approaches could be developed. Decision criteria include time, money, comprehensiveness, and complexity of the approach. Because results must be communicated to a non-technical audience, there is a trade off between the complexity of the approach and the ability to convince economists, lawyers and policy makers that results make sense. The question on MTBE content posed above was investigated using transport models, a release scenario and gasoline composition. Because of the inability of transport models to predict future concentrations, an approach was chosen to base comparative assessment on a calibrated model. By taking this approach, "generic" modeling with arbitrarily selected parameters was avoided and the validity of the simulation results rests upon relatively small extrapolations from the original calibrated models. A set of simulations was performed that assumed 3% (octane enhancement) and 11% (CAAA) MTBE in gasoline. The results were that ground water concentrations would be reduced in proportion to the reduction of MTBE in the fuel

  5. Melioration as rational choice: sequential decision making in uncertain environments.

    PubMed

    Sims, Chris R; Neth, Hansjörg; Jacobs, Robert A; Gray, Wayne D

    2013-01-01

    Melioration-defined as choosing a lesser, local gain over a greater longer term gain-is a behavioral tendency that people and pigeons share. As such, the empirical occurrence of meliorating behavior has frequently been interpreted as evidence that the mechanisms of human choice violate the norms of economic rationality. In some environments, the relationship between actions and outcomes is known. In this case, the rationality of choice behavior can be evaluated in terms of how successfully it maximizes utility given knowledge of the environmental contingencies. In most complex environments, however, the relationship between actions and future outcomes is uncertain and must be learned from experience. When the difficulty of this learning challenge is taken into account, it is not evident that melioration represents suboptimal choice behavior. In the present article, we examine human performance in a sequential decision-making experiment that is known to induce meliorating behavior. In keeping with previous results using this paradigm, we find that the majority of participants in the experiment fail to adopt the optimal decision strategy and instead demonstrate a significant bias toward melioration. To explore the origins of this behavior, we develop a rational analysis (Anderson, 1990) of the learning problem facing individuals in uncertain decision environments. Our analysis demonstrates that an unbiased learner would adopt melioration as the optimal response strategy for maximizing long-term gain. We suggest that many documented cases of melioration can be reinterpreted not as irrational choice but rather as globally optimal choice under uncertainty.

  6. Acquisition and production of skilled behavior in dynamic decision-making tasks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kirlik, Alex

    1992-01-01

    Currently, two main approaches exist for improving the human-machine interface component of a system in order to improve overall system performance - display enhancement and intelligent decision making. Discussed here are the characteristic issues of these two decision-making strategies. Differences in expert and novice decision making are described in order to help determine whether a particular strategy may be better for a particular type of user. Research is outlined to compare and contrast the two technologies, as well as to examine the interaction effects introduced by the different skill levels and the different methods for training operators.

  7. Transient Cognitive Dynamics, Metastability, and Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Rabinovich, Mikhail I.; Huerta, Ramón; Varona, Pablo; Afraimovich, Valentin S.

    2008-01-01

    The idea that cognitive activity can be understood using nonlinear dynamics has been intensively discussed at length for the last 15 years. One of the popular points of view is that metastable states play a key role in the execution of cognitive functions. Experimental and modeling studies suggest that most of these functions are the result of transient activity of large-scale brain networks in the presence of noise. Such transients may consist of a sequential switching between different metastable cognitive states. The main problem faced when using dynamical theory to describe transient cognitive processes is the fundamental contradiction between reproducibility and flexibility of transient behavior. In this paper, we propose a theoretical description of transient cognitive dynamics based on the interaction of functionally dependent metastable cognitive states. The mathematical image of such transient activity is a stable heteroclinic channel, i.e., a set of trajectories in the vicinity of a heteroclinic skeleton that consists of saddles and unstable separatrices that connect their surroundings. We suggest a basic mathematical model, a strongly dissipative dynamical system, and formulate the conditions for the robustness and reproducibility of cognitive transients that satisfy the competing requirements for stability and flexibility. Based on this approach, we describe here an effective solution for the problem of sequential decision making, represented as a fixed time game: a player takes sequential actions in a changing noisy environment so as to maximize a cumulative reward. As we predict and verify in computer simulations, noise plays an important role in optimizing the gain. PMID:18452000

  8. Decision-making triggers in adaptive management.

    PubMed

    Nie, Martin A; Schultz, Courtney A

    2012-12-01

    We analyzed whether decision-making triggers increase accountability of adaptive-management plans. Triggers are prenegotiated commitments in an adaptive-management plan that specify what actions are to be taken and when on the basis of information obtained from monitoring. Triggers improve certainty that particular actions will be taken by agencies in the future. We conducted an in-depth, qualitative review of the political and legal contexts of adaptive management and its application by U.S. federal agencies. Agencies must satisfy the judiciary that adaptive-management plans meet substantive legal standards and comply with the U.S. National Environmental Policy Act. We examined 3 cases in which triggers were used in adaptive-management plans: salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) in the Columbia River, oil and gas development by the Bureau of Land Management, and a habitat conservation plan under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. In all the cases, key aspects of adaptive management, including controls and preidentified feedback loops, were not incorporated in the plans. Monitoring and triggered mitigation actions were limited in their enforceability, which was contingent on several factors, including which laws applied in each case and the degree of specificity in how triggers were written into plans. Other controversial aspects of these plans revolved around who designed, conducted, interpreted, and funded monitoring programs. Additional contentious issues were the level of precaution associated with trigger mechanisms and the definition of ecological baselines used as points of comparison. Despite these challenges, triggers can be used to increase accountability, by predefining points at which an adaptive management plan will be revisited and reevaluated, and thus improve the application of adaptive management in its complicated political and legal context. PMID:22891956

  9. Shared decision making in the ED: ethical considerations.

    PubMed

    Kraus, Chadd K; Marco, Catherine A

    2016-08-01

    The process of shared decision making (SDM) is an ethical imperative in the physician-patient relationship, especially in the emergency department (ED), where SDM can present unique challenges because patients and emergency physicians often have no established relationship and decisions about diagnosis, treatment, and disposition are time dependent. SDM should be guided by the ethical principles of autonomy, beneficence, nonmaleficence, and justice and the related principle of stewardship of finite resources. The objective of this article is to outline the ethical considerations of SDM in the ED in the context of diagnostic evaluations, therapeutic interventions, disposition decisions, and conflict resolution and to explore strategies for reaching decision consensus. Several cases are presented to highlight the ethical principles in SDM in the ED. SDM is an important approach to diagnostic testing in the ED. Achieving agreement regarding diagnostic evaluations requires a balance of respect for patient autonomy and stewardship of resources. SDM regarding ED therapeutic interventions is an important component of the balance of respect for patient autonomy and beneficence. While respecting patient autonomy, emergency physicians also recognize the importance of the application of professional judgment to achieve the best possible outcome for patients. SDM as an ethical imperative in the context of ED disposition is especially important because of the frequent ambiguity of equipoise in these situations. Unique clinical situations such as pediatric patients or patients who lack decisional capacity merit special consideration. PMID:27260552

  10. Participative Decision-Making. Research Action Brief Number 2.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    ERIC Clearinghouse on Educational Management, Eugene, OR.

    This report examines the role of participative decision-making in education by reviewing significant research on the involvement of teachers in educational policy-making. The discussion attempts to put participative decision-making (PDM) in perspective by highlighting empirical research on how well PDM works and by identifying some of the…

  11. 42 CFR 93.412 - Making decisions on institutional noncompliance.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 1 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Making decisions on institutional noncompliance. 93... Institutional Compliance Issues § 93.412 Making decisions on institutional noncompliance. (a) Institutions must... unwillingness to implement and follow the requirements of this part and its assurance. In making this...

  12. 42 CFR 93.412 - Making decisions on institutional noncompliance.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Making decisions on institutional noncompliance. 93... Institutional Compliance Issues § 93.412 Making decisions on institutional noncompliance. (a) Institutions must... unwillingness to implement and follow the requirements of this part and its assurance. In making this...

  13. 42 CFR 93.412 - Making decisions on institutional noncompliance.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 1 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Making decisions on institutional noncompliance. 93... Institutional Compliance Issues § 93.412 Making decisions on institutional noncompliance. (a) Institutions must... unwillingness to implement and follow the requirements of this part and its assurance. In making this...

  14. 42 CFR 93.412 - Making decisions on institutional noncompliance.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Making decisions on institutional noncompliance. 93... Institutional Compliance Issues § 93.412 Making decisions on institutional noncompliance. (a) Institutions must... unwillingness to implement and follow the requirements of this part and its assurance. In making this...

  15. 42 CFR 93.412 - Making decisions on institutional noncompliance.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Making decisions on institutional noncompliance. 93... Institutional Compliance Issues § 93.412 Making decisions on institutional noncompliance. (a) Institutions must... unwillingness to implement and follow the requirements of this part and its assurance. In making this...

  16. Small Groups' Ecological Reasoning While Making an Environmental Management Decision.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hogan, Kathleen

    2002-01-01

    Explores the ideas and reasoning students use to make a collaborative environmental management decision. Compares students' discussions with scientists' guidelines for making environmental management decisions. Finds that whereas across groups students touched on all of the themes that scientists consider to be important for making environmental…

  17. A Canonical Theory of Dynamic Decision-Making

    PubMed Central

    Fox, John; Cooper, Richard P.; Glasspool, David W.

    2012-01-01

    Decision-making behavior is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and economics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI, and other technical disciplines. However the conceptualization of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision-maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision-making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem solving, planning, and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuropsychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering. PMID:23565100

  18. A canonical theory of dynamic decision-making.

    PubMed

    Fox, John; Cooper, Richard P; Glasspool, David W

    2013-01-01

    Decision-making behavior is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and economics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI, and other technical disciplines. However the conceptualization of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision-maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision-making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem solving, planning, and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuropsychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering. PMID:23565100

  19. A framework for automated decision making and problem solving

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Heer, E.

    1980-01-01

    Problems can be subdivided into two main categories: well structured problems and ill structured problems. The first require routine repetitive decisions which are generally amenable to programmable decision processes. The second require novel nonprogrammable decision processes. The decision making processes can be subdivided into those representative of those done by humans and those done by machine. Many of such decision processes require a combination of humans d machines. Automated decision making and problem solving technologies are expected to have their greatest potential impact in the space program.

  20. Considering Risk and Resilience in Decision-Making

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the concepts of decision-making, risk analysis, uncertainty and resilience analysis. The relation between risk, vulnerability, and resilience is analyzed. The paper describes how complexity, uncertainty, and ambiguity are the most critical factors in the definition of the approach and criteria for decision-making. Uncertainty in its various forms is what limits our ability to offer definitive answers to questions about the outcomes of alternatives in a decision-making process. It is shown that, although resilience-informed decision-making would seem fundamentally different from risk-informed decision-making, this is not the case as resilience-analysis can be easily incorporated within existing analytic-deliberative decision-making frameworks.