Constructing compact Takagi-Sugeno rule systems: identification of complex interactions in epidemiological data.

PubMed

Zhou, Shang-Ming; Lyons, Ronan A; Brophy, Sinead; Gravenor, Mike B

2012-01-01

The Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy rule system is a widely used data mining technique, and is of particular use in the identification of non-linear interactions between variables. However the number of rules increases dramatically when applied to high dimensional data sets (the curse of dimensionality). Few robust methods are available to identify important rules while removing redundant ones, and this results in limited applicability in fields such as epidemiology or bioinformatics where the interaction of many variables must be considered. Here, we develop a new parsimonious TS rule system. We propose three statistics: R, L, and ω-values, to rank the importance of each TS rule, and a forward selection procedure to construct a final model. We use our method to predict how key components of childhood deprivation combine to influence educational achievement outcome. We show that a parsimonious TS model can be constructed, based on a small subset of rules, that provides an accurate description of the relationship between deprivation indices and educational outcomes. The selected rules shed light on the synergistic relationships between the variables, and reveal that the effect of targeting specific domains of deprivation is crucially dependent on the state of the other domains. Policy decisions need to incorporate these interactions, and deprivation indices should not be considered in isolation. The TS rule system provides a basis for such decision making, and has wide applicability for the identification of non-linear interactions in complex biomedical data.

Proper Edging and Trimming Will Help Improve Lumber Value

Treesearch

Philip A. Araman

1991-01-01

Decisions on where to edge and trim waning edged boards, or to trim other boards, can have a major effect on the performance of a sawmill. Optimum decisions are difficult for a number of reasons, including: complexity of grading rules; operator skills; operator fatigue or lack of interest at times; and, the inability of operators to include lumber prices in decisions....

Using Best Practices to Extract, Organize, and Reuse Embedded Decision Support Content Knowledge Rules from Mature Clinical Systems.

PubMed

DesAutels, Spencer J; Fox, Zachary E; Giuse, Dario A; Williams, Annette M; Kou, Qing-Hua; Weitkamp, Asli; Neal R, Patel; Bettinsoli Giuse, Nunzia

2016-01-01

Clinical decision support (CDS) knowledge, embedded over time in mature medical systems, presents an interesting and complex opportunity for information organization, maintenance, and reuse. To have a holistic view of all decision support requires an in-depth understanding of each clinical system as well as expert knowledge of the latest evidence. This approach to clinical decision support presents an opportunity to unify and externalize the knowledge within rules-based decision support. Driven by an institutional need to prioritize decision support content for migration to new clinical systems, the Center for Knowledge Management and Health Information Technology teams applied their unique expertise to extract content from individual systems, organize it through a single extensible schema, and present it for discovery and reuse through a newly created Clinical Support Knowledge Acquisition and Archival Tool (CS-KAAT). CS-KAAT can build and maintain the underlying knowledge infrastructure needed by clinical systems.

Robot decisions: on the importance of virtuous judgment in clinical decision making.

PubMed

Gelhaus, Petra

2011-10-01

The aim of this article is to argue for the necessity of emotional professional virtues in the understanding of good clinical practice. This understanding is required for a proper balance of capacities in medical education and further education of physicians. For this reason an ideal physician, incarnating the required virtues, skills and knowledge is compared with a non-emotional robot that is bound to moral rules. This fictive confrontation is meant to clarify why certain demands on the personality of the physician are justified, in addition to a rule- and principle-based moral orientation and biomedical knowledge and skills. Philosophical analysis of thought experiments inspired by science fiction literature by Isaac Asimov. Although prima facie a rule-oriented robot seems more reliable and trustworthy, the complexity of clinical judgment is not met by an encompassing and never contradictory set of rules from which one could logically derive decisions. There are different ways how the robot could still work, but at the cost of the predictability of its behaviour and its moral orientation. In comparison, a virtuous human doctor who is also bound to these rules, although less strictly, will more reliably keep at moral objectives, be understandable, be more flexible in case the rules come to their limits, and will be more predictable in these critical situations. Apart from these advantages of the virtuous human doctor referring to her own person, the most problematic deficit of the robot is its lacking deeper understanding of the inner mental events of patients which makes good contact, good communication and good influence impossible. Although an infallibly rule-oriented robot seems more reliable at first view, in situations that require complex decisions like clinical practice the agency of a moral human person is more trustworthy. Furthermore, the understanding of the patient's emotions must remain insufficient for a non-emotional, non-human being. Because these are crucial preconditions for good clinical practice, enough attention should be given to develop these virtues and emotional skills, in addition to the usual attention on knowledge, technical skills and the obedience to moral rules and principles. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Does the cost function matter in Bayes decision rule?

PubMed

Schlü ter, Ralf; Nussbaum-Thom, Markus; Ney, Hermann

2012-02-01

In many tasks in pattern recognition, such as automatic speech recognition (ASR), optical character recognition (OCR), part-of-speech (POS) tagging, and other string recognition tasks, we are faced with a well-known inconsistency: The Bayes decision rule is usually used to minimize string (symbol sequence) error, whereas, in practice, we want to minimize symbol (word, character, tag, etc.) error. When comparing different recognition systems, we do indeed use symbol error rate as an evaluation measure. The topic of this work is to analyze the relation between string (i.e., 0-1) and symbol error (i.e., metric, integer valued) cost functions in the Bayes decision rule, for which fundamental analytic results are derived. Simple conditions are derived for which the Bayes decision rule with integer-valued metric cost function and with 0-1 cost gives the same decisions or leads to classes with limited cost. The corresponding conditions can be tested with complexity linear in the number of classes. The results obtained do not make any assumption w.r.t. the structure of the underlying distributions or the classification problem. Nevertheless, the general analytic results are analyzed via simulations of string recognition problems with Levenshtein (edit) distance cost function. The results support earlier findings that considerable improvements are to be expected when initial error rates are high.

75 FR 5253 - Request for Information Regarding Lifetime Income Options for Participants and Beneficiaries in...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-02-02

... financial decision- making skills of plan participants. The Working Group issued a report containing, among...., cost, complexity of products, adverse selection, poor decision-making by consumers, desire for... #0;notices is to give interested persons an opportunity to participate in #0;the rule making prior to...

Multicriteria meta-heuristics for AGV dispatching control based on computational intelligence.

PubMed

Naso, David; Turchiano, Biagio

2005-04-01

In many manufacturing environments, automated guided vehicles are used to move the processed materials between various pickup and delivery points. The assignment of vehicles to unit loads is a complex problem that is often solved in real-time with simple dispatching rules. This paper proposes an automated guided vehicles dispatching approach based on computational intelligence. We adopt a fuzzy multicriteria decision strategy to simultaneously take into account multiple aspects in every dispatching decision. Since the typical short-term view of dispatching rules is one of the main limitations of such real-time assignment heuristics, we also incorporate in the multicriteria algorithm a specific heuristic rule that takes into account the empty-vehicle travel on a longer time-horizon. Moreover, we also adopt a genetic algorithm to tune the weights associated to each decision criteria in the global decision algorithm. The proposed approach is validated by means of a comparison with other dispatching rules, and with other recently proposed multicriteria dispatching strategies also based on computational Intelligence. The analysis of the results obtained by the proposed dispatching approach in both nominal and perturbed operating conditions (congestions, faults) confirms its effectiveness.

Decision blocks: A tool for automating decision making in CLIPS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eick, Christoph F.; Mehta, Nikhil N.

1991-01-01

The human capability of making complex decision is one of the most fascinating facets of human intelligence, especially if vague, judgemental, default or uncertain knowledge is involved. Unfortunately, most existing rule based forward chaining languages are not very suitable to simulate this aspect of human intelligence, because of their lack of support for approximate reasoning techniques needed for this task, and due to the lack of specific constructs to facilitate the coding of frequently reoccurring decision block to provide better support for the design and implementation of rule based decision support systems. A language called BIRBAL, which is defined on the top of CLIPS, for the specification of decision blocks, is introduced. Empirical experiments involving the comparison of the length of CLIPS program with the corresponding BIRBAL program for three different applications are surveyed. The results of these experiments suggest that for decision making intensive applications, a CLIPS program tends to be about three times longer than the corresponding BIRBAL program.

A Non-technical User-Oriented Display Notation for XACML Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stepien, Bernard; Felty, Amy; Matwin, Stan

Ideally, access control to resources in complex IT systems ought to be handled by business decision makers who own a given resource (e.g., the pay and benefits section of an organization should decide and manage the access rules to the payroll system). To make this happen, the security and database communities need to develop vendor-independent access management tools, useable by decision makers, rather than technical personnel detached from a given business function. We have developed and implemented such tool, based on XACML. The XACML is an important emerging tool for managing complex access control applications. As a formal notation, based on an XML schema representing the grammar of a given application, XACML is precise and non-ambiguous. But this very property puts it out of reach of non-technical users. We propose a new notation for displaying and editing XACML rules that is independent of XML, and we develop an editor for it. Our notation combines a tree representation of logical expressions with an accessible natural language layer. Our early experience indicates that such rules can be grasped by non-technical users wishing to develop and control rules for accessing their own resources.

Best density and structure for uneven-aged northern hardwood management in New England

Treesearch

William B. Leak

2003-01-01

Choice of the best residual density (basal area per acre) and structure (diameter distribution) for uneven-aged management of northern hardwoods is a complex decision that depends on the manager's decision rules, product objectives, site conditions, and - perhaps most important - current stand conditions. In contrast to other recommendations on residual density...

TOXPERT: An Expert System for Risk Assessment

PubMed Central

Soto, R. J.; Osimitz, T. G.; Oleson, A.

1988-01-01

TOXPERT is an artificial intelligence based system used to model product safety, toxicology (TOX) and regulatory (REG) decision processes. An expert system shell uses backward chaining rule control to link “marketing approval” goals to the type of product, REG agency, exposure conditions and TOX. Marketing risks are primarily a function of the TOX, hazards and exposure potential. The method employed differentiates between REG requirements in goal seeking control for various types of products. This is accomplished by controlling rule execution by defining frames for each REG agency. In addition, TOXPERT produces classifications of TOX ratings and suggested product labeling. This production rule system uses principles of TOX, REGs, corporate guidelines and internal “rules of thumb.” TOXPERT acts as an advisor for this narrow domain. Advantages are that it can make routine decisions freeing professional's time for more complex problem solving, provide backup and training.

Analyzing stakeholder preferences for managing elk and bison at the National Elk Refuge and Grand Teton National Park: An example of the disparate stakeholder management approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Koontz, Lynne; Hoag, Dana L.

2005-01-01

Many programs and tools have been developed by different disciplines to facilitate group negotiation and decision making. Three examples are relevant here. First, decision analysis models such as the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) are commonly used to prioritize the goals and objectives of stakeholders’ preferences for resource planning by formally structuring conflicts and assisting decision makers in developing a compromised solution (Forman, 1998). Second, institutional models such as the Legal Institutional Analysis Model (LIAM) have been used to describe the organizational rules of behavior and the institutional boundaries constraining management decisions (Lamb and others, 1998). Finally, public choice models have been used to predict the potential success of rent-seeking activity (spending additional time and money to exert political pressure) to change the political rules (Becker, 1983). While these tools have been successful at addressing various pieces of the natural resource decision making process, their use in isolation is not enough to fully depict the complexities of the physical and biological systems with the rules and constraints of the underlying economic and political systems. An approach is needed that combines natural sciences, economics, and politics.

Using Best Practices to Extract, Organize, and Reuse Embedded Decision Support Content Knowledge Rules from Mature Clinical Systems

PubMed Central

DesAutels, Spencer J.; Fox, Zachary E.; Giuse, Dario A.; Williams, Annette M.; Kou, Qing-hua; Weitkamp, Asli; Neal R, Patel; Bettinsoli Giuse, Nunzia

2016-01-01

Clinical decision support (CDS) knowledge, embedded over time in mature medical systems, presents an interesting and complex opportunity for information organization, maintenance, and reuse. To have a holistic view of all decision support requires an in-depth understanding of each clinical system as well as expert knowledge of the latest evidence. This approach to clinical decision support presents an opportunity to unify and externalize the knowledge within rules-based decision support. Driven by an institutional need to prioritize decision support content for migration to new clinical systems, the Center for Knowledge Management and Health Information Technology teams applied their unique expertise to extract content from individual systems, organize it through a single extensible schema, and present it for discovery and reuse through a newly created Clinical Support Knowledge Acquisition and Archival Tool (CS-KAAT). CS-KAAT can build and maintain the underlying knowledge infrastructure needed by clinical systems. PMID:28269846

Rough Evaluation Structure: Application of Rough Set Theory to Generate Simple Rules for Inconsistent Preference Relation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gehrmann, Andreas; Nagai, Yoshimitsu; Yoshida, Osamu; Ishizu, Syohei

Since management decision-making becomes complex and preferences of the decision-maker frequently becomes inconsistent, multi-attribute decision-making problems were studied. To represent inconsistent preference relation, the concept of evaluation structure was introduced. We can generate simple rules to represent inconsistent preference relation by the evaluation structures. Further rough set theory for the preference relation was studied and the concept of approximation was introduced. One of our main aims of this paper is to introduce a concept of rough evaluation structure for representing inconsistent preference relation. We apply rough set theory to the evaluation structure, and develop a method for generating simple rules for inconsistent preference relations. In this paper, we introduce concepts of totally ordered information system, similarity class of preference relation, upper and lower approximation of preference relations. We also show the properties of rough evaluation structure and provide a simple example. As an application of rough evaluation structure, we analyze questionnaire survey of customer preferences about audio players.

Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models - an overview of techniques and approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller-Hansen, Finn; Schlüter, Maja; Mäs, Michael; Donges, Jonathan F.; Kolb, Jakob J.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Heitzig, Jobst

2017-11-01

Today, humans have a critical impact on the Earth system and vice versa, which can generate complex feedback processes between social and ecological dynamics. Integrating human behavior into formal Earth system models (ESMs), however, requires crucial modeling assumptions about actors and their goals, behavioral options, and decision rules, as well as modeling decisions regarding human social interactions and the aggregation of individuals' behavior. Here, we review existing modeling approaches and techniques from various disciplines and schools of thought dealing with human behavior at different levels of decision making. We demonstrate modelers' often vast degrees of freedom but also seek to make modelers aware of the often crucial consequences of seemingly innocent modeling assumptions. After discussing which socioeconomic units are potentially important for ESMs, we compare models of individual decision making that correspond to alternative behavioral theories and that make diverse modeling assumptions about individuals' preferences, beliefs, decision rules, and foresight. We review approaches to model social interaction, covering game theoretic frameworks, models of social influence, and network models. Finally, we discuss approaches to studying how the behavior of individuals, groups, and organizations can aggregate to complex collective phenomena, discussing agent-based, statistical, and representative-agent modeling and economic macro-dynamics. We illustrate the main ingredients of modeling techniques with examples from land-use dynamics as one of the main drivers of environmental change bridging local to global scales.

The Rule of Three for Prizes in Science and the Bold Triptychs of Francis Bacon.

PubMed

Goldstein, Joseph L

2016-09-22

For many scientific awards, such as Nobels and Laskers, the maximum number of recipients is three. This Rule of Three forces selection committees to make difficult decisions that increase the likelihood of singling out those individuals who open a new field and continue to lead it. The Rule of Three is reminiscent of art's three-panel triptych, a form that the modern master Francis Bacon used to distill complex stories in a bold way. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rule acquisition in formal decision contexts based on formal, object-oriented and property-oriented concept lattices.

PubMed

Ren, Yue; Li, Jinhai; Aswani Kumar, Cherukuri; Liu, Wenqi

2014-01-01

Rule acquisition is one of the main purposes in the analysis of formal decision contexts. Up to now, there have been several types of rules in formal decision contexts such as decision rules, decision implications, and granular rules, which can be viewed as ∧-rules since all of them have the following form: "if conditions 1,2,…, and m hold, then decisions hold." In order to enrich the existing rule acquisition theory in formal decision contexts, this study puts forward two new types of rules which are called ∨-rules and ∨-∧ mixed rules based on formal, object-oriented, and property-oriented concept lattices. Moreover, a comparison of ∨-rules, ∨-∧ mixed rules, and ∧-rules is made from the perspectives of inclusion and inference relationships. Finally, some real examples and numerical experiments are conducted to compare the proposed rule acquisition algorithms with the existing one in terms of the running efficiency.

Rule Acquisition in Formal Decision Contexts Based on Formal, Object-Oriented and Property-Oriented Concept Lattices

PubMed Central

Ren, Yue; Aswani Kumar, Cherukuri; Liu, Wenqi

2014-01-01

Rule acquisition is one of the main purposes in the analysis of formal decision contexts. Up to now, there have been several types of rules in formal decision contexts such as decision rules, decision implications, and granular rules, which can be viewed as ∧-rules since all of them have the following form: “if conditions 1,2,…, and m hold, then decisions hold.” In order to enrich the existing rule acquisition theory in formal decision contexts, this study puts forward two new types of rules which are called ∨-rules and ∨-∧ mixed rules based on formal, object-oriented, and property-oriented concept lattices. Moreover, a comparison of ∨-rules, ∨-∧ mixed rules, and ∧-rules is made from the perspectives of inclusion and inference relationships. Finally, some real examples and numerical experiments are conducted to compare the proposed rule acquisition algorithms with the existing one in terms of the running efficiency. PMID:25165744

Design of operating rules in complex water resources systems using historical records, expert criteria and fuzzy logic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel; Macian-Sorribes, Hector; María Benlliure-Moreno, Jose; Fullana-Montoro, Juan

2015-04-01

Water resources systems in areas with a strong tradition in water use are complex to manage by the high amount of constraints that overlap in time and space, creating a complicated framework in which past, present and future collide between them. In addition, it is usual to find "hidden constraints" in system operations, which condition operation decisions being unnoticed by anyone but the river managers and users. Being aware of those hidden constraints requires usually years of experience and a degree of involvement in that system's management operations normally beyond the possibilities of technicians. However, their impact in the management decisions is strongly imprinted in the historical data records available. The purpose of this contribution is to present a methodology capable of assessing operating rules in complex water resources systems combining historical records and expert criteria. Both sources are coupled using fuzzy logic. The procedure stages are: 1) organize expert-technicians preliminary meetings to let the first explain how they manage the system; 2) set up a fuzzy rule-based system (FRB) structure according to the way the system is managed; 3) use the historical records available to estimate the inputs' fuzzy numbers, to assign preliminary output values to the FRB rules and to train and validate these rules; 4) organize expert-technician meetings to discuss the rule structure and the input's quantification, returning if required to the second stage; 5) once the FRB structure is accepted, its output values must be refined and completed with the aid of the experts by using meetings, workshops or surveys; 6) combine the FRB with a Decision Support System (DSS) to simulate the effect of those management decisions; 7) compare its results with the ones offered by the historical records and/or simulation or optimization models; and 8) discuss with the stakeholders the model performance returning, if it's required, to the fifth or the second stage. The methodology proposed has been applied to the Jucar River Basin (Spain). This basin has 3 reservoirs, 4 headwaters, 11 demands and 5 environmental flows; which form together a complex constraint set. After the preliminary meetings, one 81-rule FRB was created, using as inputs the system state variables at the start of the hydrologic year, and as outputs the target reservoir release schedule. The inputs' fuzzy numbers were estimated jointly using surveys. Fifteen years of historical records were used to train the system's outputs. The obtained FRB was then refined during additional expert-technician meetings. After that, the resulting FRB was introduced into a DSS simulating the effect of those management rules for different hydrological conditions. Three additional FRB's were created using: 1) exclusively the historical records; 2) a stochastic optimization model; and 3) a deterministic optimization model. The results proved to be consistent with the expectations, with the stakeholder's FRB performance located between the data-driven simulation and the stochastic optimization FRB's; and reflect the stakeholders' major goals and concerns about the river management. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT: This study has been partially supported by the IMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-1-R) with Spanish MINECO (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad) funds.

Advancing reservoir operation description in physically based hydrological models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anghileri, Daniela; Giudici, Federico; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo

2016-04-01

Last decades have seen significant advances in our capacity of characterizing and reproducing hydrological processes within physically based models. Yet, when the human component is considered (e.g. reservoirs, water distribution systems), the associated decisions are generally modeled with very simplistic rules, which might underperform in reproducing the actual operators' behaviour on a daily or sub-daily basis. For example, reservoir operations are usually described by a target-level rule curve, which represents the level that the reservoir should track during normal operating conditions. The associated release decision is determined by the current state of the reservoir relative to the rule curve. This modeling approach can reasonably reproduce the seasonal water volume shift due to reservoir operation. Still, it cannot capture more complex decision making processes in response, e.g., to the fluctuations of energy prices and demands, the temporal unavailability of power plants or varying amount of snow accumulated in the basin. In this work, we link a physically explicit hydrological model with detailed hydropower behavioural models describing the decision making process by the dam operator. In particular, we consider two categories of behavioural models: explicit or rule-based behavioural models, where reservoir operating rules are empirically inferred from observational data, and implicit or optimization based behavioural models, where, following a normative economic approach, the decision maker is represented as a rational agent maximising a utility function. We compare these two alternate modelling approaches on the real-world water system of Lake Como catchment in the Italian Alps. The water system is characterized by the presence of 18 artificial hydropower reservoirs generating almost 13% of the Italian hydropower production. Results show to which extent the hydrological regime in the catchment is affected by different behavioural models and reservoir operating strategies.

Traditional versus rule-based programming techniques - Application to the control of optional flight information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ricks, Wendell R.; Abbott, Kathy H.

1987-01-01

A traditional programming technique for controlling the display of optional flight information in a civil transport cockpit is compared to a rule-based technique for the same function. This application required complex decision logic and a frequently modified rule base. The techniques are evaluated for execution efficiency and implementation ease; the criterion used to calculate the execution efficiency is the total number of steps required to isolate hypotheses that were true and the criteria used to evaluate the implementability are ease of modification and verification and explanation capability. It is observed that the traditional program is more efficient than the rule-based program; however, the rule-based programming technique is more applicable for improving programmer productivity.

Rule-based optimization and multicriteria decision support for packaging a truck chassis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, Martin; Lindroth, Peter; Welke, Richard

2017-06-01

Trucks are highly individualized products where exchangeable parts are flexibly combined to suit different customer requirements, this leading to a great complexity in product development. Therefore, an optimization approach based on constraint programming is proposed for automatically packaging parts of a truck chassis by following packaging rules expressed as constraints. A multicriteria decision support system is developed where a database of truck layouts is computed, among which interactive navigation then can be performed. The work has been performed in cooperation with Volvo Group Trucks Technology (GTT), from which specific rules have been used. Several scenarios are described where the methods developed can be successfully applied and lead to less time-consuming manual work, fewer mistakes, and greater flexibility in configuring trucks. A numerical evaluation is also presented showing the efficiency and practical relevance of the methods, which are implemented in a software tool.

Why Rules Matter in Complex Event Processing...and Vice Versa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vincent, Paul

Many commercial and research CEP solutions are moving beyond simple stream query languages to more complete definitions of "process" and thence to "decisions" and "actions". And as capabilities increase in event processing capabilities, there is an increasing realization that the humble "rule" is as relevant to the event cloud as it is to specific services. Less obvious is how much event processing has to offer the process and rule execution and management technologies. Does event processing change the way we should manage businesses, processes and services, together with their embedded (and hopefully managed) rulesets?

Multiple-reason decision making based on automatic processing.

PubMed

Glöckner, Andreas; Betsch, Tilmann

2008-09-01

It has been repeatedly shown that in decisions under time constraints, individuals predominantly use noncompensatory strategies rather than complex compensatory ones. The authors argue that these findings might be due not to limitations of cognitive capacity but instead to limitations of information search imposed by the commonly used experimental tool Mouselab (J. W. Payne, J. R. Bettman, & E. J. Johnson, 1988). The authors tested this assumption in 3 experiments. In the 1st experiment, information was openly presented, whereas in the 2nd experiment, the standard Mouselab program was used under different time limits. The results indicate that individuals are able to compute weighted additive decision strategies extremely quickly if information search is not restricted by the experimental procedure. In a 3rd experiment, these results were replicated using more complex decision tasks, and the major alternative explanations that individuals use more complex heuristics or that they merely encode the constellation of cues were ruled out. In sum, the findings challenge the fundaments of bounded rationality and highlight the importance of automatic processes in decision making. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved.

Faults Discovery By Using Mined Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Charles

2005-01-01

Fault discovery in the complex systems consist of model based reasoning, fault tree analysis, rule based inference methods, and other approaches. Model based reasoning builds models for the systems either by mathematic formulations or by experiment model. Fault Tree Analysis shows the possible causes of a system malfunction by enumerating the suspect components and their respective failure modes that may have induced the problem. The rule based inference build the model based on the expert knowledge. Those models and methods have one thing in common; they have presumed some prior-conditions. Complex systems often use fault trees to analyze the faults. Fault diagnosis, when error occurs, is performed by engineers and analysts performing extensive examination of all data gathered during the mission. International Space Station (ISS) control center operates on the data feedback from the system and decisions are made based on threshold values by using fault trees. Since those decision-making tasks are safety critical and must be done promptly, the engineers who manually analyze the data are facing time challenge. To automate this process, this paper present an approach that uses decision trees to discover fault from data in real-time and capture the contents of fault trees as the initial state of the trees.

Modeling pedestrian shopping behavior using principles of bounded rationality: model comparison and validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Wei; Timmermans, Harry

2011-06-01

Models of geographical choice behavior have been dominantly based on rational choice models, which assume that decision makers are utility-maximizers. Rational choice models may be less appropriate as behavioral models when modeling decisions in complex environments in which decision makers may simplify the decision problem using heuristics. Pedestrian behavior in shopping streets is an example. We therefore propose a modeling framework for pedestrian shopping behavior incorporating principles of bounded rationality. We extend three classical heuristic rules (conjunctive, disjunctive and lexicographic rule) by introducing threshold heterogeneity. The proposed models are implemented using data on pedestrian behavior in Wang Fujing Street, the city center of Beijing, China. The models are estimated and compared with multinomial logit models and mixed logit models. Results show that the heuristic models are the best for all the decisions that are modeled. Validation tests are carried out through multi-agent simulation by comparing simulated spatio-temporal agent behavior with the observed pedestrian behavior. The predictions of heuristic models are slightly better than those of the multinomial logit models.

Goal neglect and knowledge chunking in the construction of novel behaviour☆

PubMed Central

Bhandari, Apoorva; Duncan, John

2014-01-01

Task complexity is critical in cognitive efficiency and fluid intelligence. To examine functional limits in task complexity, we examine the phenomenon of goal neglect, where participants with low fluid intelligence fail to follow task rules that they otherwise understand. Though neglect is known to increase with task complexity, here we show that – in contrast to previous accounts – the critical factor is not the total complexity of all task rules. Instead, when the space of task requirements can be divided into separate sub-parts, neglect is controlled by the complexity of each component part. The data also show that neglect develops and stabilizes over the first few performance trials, i.e. as instructions are first used to generate behaviour. In all complex behaviour, a critical process is combination of task events with retrieved task requirements to create focused attentional episodes dealing with each decision in turn. In large part, we suggest, fluid intelligence may reflect this process of converting complex requirements into effective attentional episodes. PMID:24141034

Decision making in a human population living sustainably.

PubMed

Hicks, John S; Burgman, Mark A; Marewski, Julian N; Fidler, Fiona; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2012-10-01

The Tiwi people of northern Australia have managed natural resources continuously for 6000-8000 years. Tiwi management objectives and outcomes may reflect how they gather information about the environment. We qualitatively analyzed Tiwi documents and management techniques to examine the relation between the social and physical environment of decision makers and their decision-making strategies. We hypothesized that principles of bounded rationality, namely, the use of efficient rules to navigate complex decision problems, explain how Tiwi managers use simple decision strategies (i.e., heuristics) to make robust decisions. Tiwi natural resource managers reduced complexity in decision making through a process that gathers incomplete and uncertain information to quickly guide decisions toward effective outcomes. They used management feedback to validate decisions through an information loop that resulted in long-term sustainability of environmental use. We examined the Tiwi decision-making processes relative to management of barramundi (Lates calcarifer) fisheries and contrasted their management with the state government's management of barramundi. Decisions that enhanced the status of individual people and their attainment of aspiration levels resulted in reliable resource availability for Tiwi consumers. Different decision processes adopted by the state for management of barramundi may not secure similarly sustainable outcomes. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Human Factors Research in Aircrew Performance and Training

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-11-01

enable performance elements to be introduced at random times. More complex decision rules were needed to provide the necessary degree of realism in... cinematic simulation in which the students experience the practical application of the principles they are taught. The exercises begin with a preflight

Pro Se Court: A Simulation Game

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gallagher, Arlene F.; Hartstein, Elliott

1973-01-01

The complexities of courtroom procedure and rule of evidence often dissuade the classroom teacher from using the mock trial strategy. This model has been designed for role playing and for focusing on the judicial decision-making process: deliberation on the issues of a case. (Author/JB)

Learning Parsimonious Classification Rules from Gene Expression Data Using Bayesian Networks with Local Structure.

PubMed

Lustgarten, Jonathan Lyle; Balasubramanian, Jeya Balaji; Visweswaran, Shyam; Gopalakrishnan, Vanathi

2017-03-01

The comprehensibility of good predictive models learned from high-dimensional gene expression data is attractive because it can lead to biomarker discovery. Several good classifiers provide comparable predictive performance but differ in their abilities to summarize the observed data. We extend a Bayesian Rule Learning (BRL-GSS) algorithm, previously shown to be a significantly better predictor than other classical approaches in this domain. It searches a space of Bayesian networks using a decision tree representation of its parameters with global constraints, and infers a set of IF-THEN rules. The number of parameters and therefore the number of rules are combinatorial to the number of predictor variables in the model. We relax these global constraints to a more generalizable local structure (BRL-LSS). BRL-LSS entails more parsimonious set of rules because it does not have to generate all combinatorial rules. The search space of local structures is much richer than the space of global structures. We design the BRL-LSS with the same worst-case time-complexity as BRL-GSS while exploring a richer and more complex model space. We measure predictive performance using Area Under the ROC curve (AUC) and Accuracy. We measure model parsimony performance by noting the average number of rules and variables needed to describe the observed data. We evaluate the predictive and parsimony performance of BRL-GSS, BRL-LSS and the state-of-the-art C4.5 decision tree algorithm, across 10-fold cross-validation using ten microarray gene-expression diagnostic datasets. In these experiments, we observe that BRL-LSS is similar to BRL-GSS in terms of predictive performance, while generating a much more parsimonious set of rules to explain the same observed data. BRL-LSS also needs fewer variables than C4.5 to explain the data with similar predictive performance. We also conduct a feasibility study to demonstrate the general applicability of our BRL methods on the newer RNA sequencing gene-expression data.

Evaluation of the performance of statistical tests used in making cleanup decisions at Superfund sites. Part 1: Choosing an appropriate statistical test

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berman, D.W.; Allen, B.C.; Van Landingham, C.B.

1998-12-31

The decision rules commonly employed to determine the need for cleanup are evaluated both to identify conditions under which they lead to erroneous conclusions and to quantify the rate that such errors occur. Their performance is also compared with that of other applicable decision rules. The authors based the evaluation of decision rules on simulations. Results are presented as power curves. These curves demonstrate that the degree of statistical control achieved is independent of the form of the null hypothesis. The loss of statistical control that occurs when a decision rule is applied to a data set that does notmore » satisfy the rule`s validity criteria is also clearly demonstrated. Some of the rules evaluated do not offer the formal statistical control that is an inherent design feature of other rules. Nevertheless, results indicate that such informal decision rules may provide superior overall control of error rates, when their application is restricted to data exhibiting particular characteristics. The results reported here are limited to decision rules applied to uncensored and lognormally distributed data. To optimize decision rules, it is necessary to evaluate their behavior when applied to data exhibiting a range of characteristics that bracket those common to field data. The performance of decision rules applied to data sets exhibiting a broader range of characteristics is reported in the second paper of this study.« less

Evaluation of a rule base for decision making in general practice.

PubMed Central

Essex, B; Healy, M

1994-01-01

BACKGROUND. Decision making in general practice relies heavily on judgmental expertise. It should be possible to codify this expertise into rules and principles. AIM. A study was undertaken to evaluate the effectiveness, of rules from a rule base designed to improve students' and trainees' management decisions relating to patients seen in general practice. METHOD. The rule base was developed after studying decisions about and management of thousands of patients seen in one general practice over an eight year period. Vignettes were presented to 93 fourth year medical students and 179 general practitioner trainees. They recorded their perception and management of each case before and after being presented with a selection of relevant rules. Participants also commented on their level of agreement with each of the rules provided with the vignettes. A panel of five independent assessors then rated as good, acceptable or poor, the participants' perception and management of each case before and after seeing the rules. RESULTS. Exposure to a few selected rules of thumb improved the problem perception and management decisions of both undergraduates and trainees. The degree of improvement was not related to previous experience or to the stated level of agreement with the proposed rules. The assessors identified difficulties students and trainees experienced in changing their perceptions and management decisions when the rules suggested options they had not considered. CONCLUSION. The rules developed to improve decision making skills in general practice are effective when used with vignettes. The next phase is to transform the rule base into an expert system to train students and doctors to acquire decision making skills. It could also be used to provide decision support when confronted with difficult management decisions in general practice. PMID:8204334

Leadership as an Emergent Feature in Social Organizations: Insights from A Laboratory Simulation Experiment.

PubMed

Curral, Luis; Marques-Quinteiro, Pedro; Gomes, Catarina; Lind, Pedro G

2016-01-01

Recent theoretical contributions have suggested a theory of leadership that is grounded in complexity theory, hence regarding leadership as a complex process (i.e., nonlinear; emergent). This article tests if complexity leadership theory promotes efficiency in work groups. 40 groups of five participants each had to complete four decision making tasks using the city simulation game SimCity4. Before engaging in the four decision making tasks, participants received information regarding what sort of leadership behaviors were more adequate to help them perform better. Results suggest that if complexity leadership theory is applied, groups can achieve higher efficiency over time, when compared with other groups where complexity leadership is not applied. This study goes beyond traditional views of leadership as a centralized form of control, and presents new evidence suggesting that leadership is a collective and emergent phenomenon, anchored in simple rules of behavior.

Leadership as an Emergent Feature in Social Organizations: Insights from A Laboratory Simulation Experiment

PubMed Central

Marques-Quinteiro, Pedro; Gomes, Catarina; Lind, Pedro G.

2016-01-01

Recent theoretical contributions have suggested a theory of leadership that is grounded in complexity theory, hence regarding leadership as a complex process (i.e., nonlinear; emergent). This article tests if complexity leadership theory promotes efficiency in work groups. 40 groups of five participants each had to complete four decision making tasks using the city simulation game SimCity4. Before engaging in the four decision making tasks, participants received information regarding what sort of leadership behaviors were more adequate to help them perform better. Results suggest that if complexity leadership theory is applied, groups can achieve higher efficiency over time, when compared with other groups where complexity leadership is not applied. This study goes beyond traditional views of leadership as a centralized form of control, and presents new evidence suggesting that leadership is a collective and emergent phenomenon, anchored in simple rules of behavior. PMID:27973596

Lifting Off of the Digital Plateau with Military Decision Support Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-23

concerns were echoed in Germany, where Colonel (later General) Jules von Verdy stripped away the complex rules and tables, and relied on the military...Review (March-April 2001): 38-45. 55 Swift, Eben. Orders. Fort Leavenworth: Staff College Press, 1905. Verdy, Jules von. Free Kreigspiel. Edited by

Clinical decision rules, spinal pain classification and prediction of treatment outcome: A discussion of recent reports in the rehabilitation literature

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Clinical decision rules are an increasingly common presence in the biomedical literature and represent one strategy of enhancing clinical-decision making with the goal of improving the efficiency and effectiveness of healthcare delivery. In the context of rehabilitation research, clinical decision rules have been predominantly aimed at classifying patients by predicting their treatment response to specific therapies. Traditionally, recommendations for developing clinical decision rules propose a multistep process (derivation, validation, impact analysis) using defined methodology. Research efforts aimed at developing a “diagnosis-based clinical decision rule” have departed from this convention. Recent publications in this line of research have used the modified terminology “diagnosis-based clinical decision guide.” Modifications to terminology and methodology surrounding clinical decision rules can make it more difficult for clinicians to recognize the level of evidence associated with a decision rule and understand how this evidence should be implemented to inform patient care. We provide a brief overview of clinical decision rule development in the context of the rehabilitation literature and two specific papers recently published in Chiropractic and Manual Therapies. PMID:22726639

Quality of service policy control in virtual private networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Yiqing; Wang, Hongbin; Zhou, Zhi; Zhou, Dongru

2004-04-01

This paper studies the QoS of VPN in an environment where the public network prices connection-oriented services based on source, destination and grade of service, and advertises these prices to its VPN customers (users). As different QoS technologies can produce different QoS, there are according different traffic classification rules and priority rules. The internet service provider (ISP) may need to build complex mechanisms separately for each node. In order to reduce the burden of network configuration, we need to design policy control technologies. We considers mainly directory server, policy server, policy manager and policy enforcers. Policy decision point (PDP) decide its control according to policy rules. In network, policy enforce point (PEP) decide its network controlled unit. For InterServ and DiffServ, we will adopt different policy control methods as following: (1) In InterServ, traffic uses resource reservation protocol (RSVP) to guarantee the network resource. (2) In DiffServ, policy server controls the DiffServ code points and per hop behavior (PHB), its PDP distributes information to each network node. Policy server will function as following: information searching; decision mechanism; decision delivering; auto-configuration. In order to prove the effectiveness of QoS policy control, we make the corrective simulation.

Characteristics of knowledge content in a curated online evidence library.

PubMed

Varada, Sowmya; Lacson, Ronilda; Raja, Ali S; Ip, Ivan K; Schneider, Louise; Osterbur, David; Bain, Paul; Vetrano, Nicole; Cellini, Jacqueline; Mita, Carol; Coletti, Margaret; Whelan, Julia; Khorasani, Ramin

2018-05-01

To describe types of recommendations represented in a curated online evidence library, report on the quality of evidence-based recommendations pertaining to diagnostic imaging exams, and assess underlying knowledge representation. The evidence library is populated with clinical decision rules, professional society guidelines, and locally developed best practice guidelines. Individual recommendations were graded based on a standard methodology and compared using chi-square test. Strength of evidence ranged from grade 1 (systematic review) through grade 5 (recommendations based on expert opinion). Finally, variations in the underlying representation of these recommendations were identified. The library contains 546 individual imaging-related recommendations. Only 15% (16/106) of recommendations from clinical decision rules were grade 5 vs 83% (526/636) from professional society practice guidelines and local best practice guidelines that cited grade 5 studies (P < .0001). Minor head trauma, pulmonary embolism, and appendicitis were topic areas supported by the highest quality of evidence. Three main variations in underlying representations of recommendations were "single-decision," "branching," and "score-based." Most recommendations were grade 5, largely because studies to test and validate many recommendations were absent. Recommendation types vary in amount and complexity and, accordingly, the structure and syntax of statements they generate. However, they can be represented in single-decision, branching, and score-based representations. In a curated evidence library with graded imaging-based recommendations, evidence quality varied widely, with decision rules providing the highest-quality recommendations. The library may be helpful in highlighting evidence gaps, comparing recommendations from varied sources on similar clinical topics, and prioritizing imaging recommendations to inform clinical decision support implementation.

Decision Rules and Group Rationality: Cognitive Gain or Standstill?

PubMed Central

Curşeu, Petru Lucian; Jansen, Rob J. G.; Chappin, Maryse M. H.

2013-01-01

Recent research in group cognition points towards the existence of collective cognitive competencies that transcend individual group members’ cognitive competencies. Since rationality is a key cognitive competence for group decision making, and group cognition emerges from the coordination of individual cognition during social interactions, this study tests the extent to which collaborative and consultative decision rules impact the emergence of group rationality. Using a set of decision tasks adapted from the heuristics and biases literature, we evaluate rationality as the extent to which individual choices are aligned with a normative ideal. We further operationalize group rationality as cognitive synergy (the extent to which collective rationality exceeds average or best individual rationality in the group), and we test the effect of collaborative and consultative decision rules in a sample of 176 groups. Our results show that the collaborative decision rule has superior synergic effects as compared to the consultative decision rule. The ninety one groups working in a collaborative fashion made more rational choices (above and beyond the average rationality of their members) than the eighty five groups working in a consultative fashion. Moreover, the groups using a collaborative decision rule were closer to the rationality of their best member than groups using consultative decision rules. Nevertheless, on average groups did not outperformed their best member. Therefore, our results reveal how decision rules prescribing interpersonal interactions impact on the emergence of collective cognitive competencies. They also open potential venues for further research on the emergence of collective rationality in human decision-making groups. PMID:23451050

Decision rules and group rationality: cognitive gain or standstill?

PubMed

Curşeu, Petru Lucian; Jansen, Rob J G; Chappin, Maryse M H

2013-01-01

Recent research in group cognition points towards the existence of collective cognitive competencies that transcend individual group members' cognitive competencies. Since rationality is a key cognitive competence for group decision making, and group cognition emerges from the coordination of individual cognition during social interactions, this study tests the extent to which collaborative and consultative decision rules impact the emergence of group rationality. Using a set of decision tasks adapted from the heuristics and biases literature, we evaluate rationality as the extent to which individual choices are aligned with a normative ideal. We further operationalize group rationality as cognitive synergy (the extent to which collective rationality exceeds average or best individual rationality in the group), and we test the effect of collaborative and consultative decision rules in a sample of 176 groups. Our results show that the collaborative decision rule has superior synergic effects as compared to the consultative decision rule. The ninety one groups working in a collaborative fashion made more rational choices (above and beyond the average rationality of their members) than the eighty five groups working in a consultative fashion. Moreover, the groups using a collaborative decision rule were closer to the rationality of their best member than groups using consultative decision rules. Nevertheless, on average groups did not outperformed their best member. Therefore, our results reveal how decision rules prescribing interpersonal interactions impact on the emergence of collective cognitive competencies. They also open potential venues for further research on the emergence of collective rationality in human decision-making groups.

Towards a decision support system for hand dermatology.

PubMed

Mazzola, Luca; Cavazzina, Alice; Pinciroli, Francesco; Bonacina, Stefano; Pigatto, Paolo; Ayala, Fabio; De Pità, Ornella; Marceglia, Sara

2014-01-01

The complexity of the medical diagnosis is faced by practitioners relying mainly on their experiences. This can be acquired during daily practices and on-the-job training. Given the complexity and extensiveness of the subject, supporting tools that include knowledge extracted by highly specialized practitioners can be valuable. In the present work, a Decision Support System (DSS) for hand dermatology was developed based on data coming from a Visit Report Form (VRF). Using a Bayesian approach and factors significance difference over the population average for the case, we demonstrated the potentiality of creating an enhanced VRF that include a diagnoses distribution probability based on the DSS rules applied for the specific patient situation.

Goal neglect and knowledge chunking in the construction of novel behaviour.

PubMed

Bhandari, Apoorva; Duncan, John

2014-01-01

Task complexity is critical in cognitive efficiency and fluid intelligence. To examine functional limits in task complexity, we examine the phenomenon of goal neglect, where participants with low fluid intelligence fail to follow task rules that they otherwise understand. Though neglect is known to increase with task complexity, here we show that - in contrast to previous accounts - the critical factor is not the total complexity of all task rules. Instead, when the space of task requirements can be divided into separate sub-parts, neglect is controlled by the complexity of each component part. The data also show that neglect develops and stabilizes over the first few performance trials, i.e. as instructions are first used to generate behaviour. In all complex behaviour, a critical process is combination of task events with retrieved task requirements to create focused attentional episodes dealing with each decision in turn. In large part, we suggest, fluid intelligence may reflect this process of converting complex requirements into effective attentional episodes. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

46 CFR 201.3 - Authentication of rules, orders, determinations and decisions of the Administration.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Authentication of rules, orders, determinations and decisions of the Administration. 201.3 Section 201.3 Shipping MARITIME ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF....3 Authentication of rules, orders, determinations and decisions of the Administration. All rules...

A Cognitive Modeling Approach to Strategy Formation in Dynamic Decision Making.

PubMed

Prezenski, Sabine; Brechmann, André; Wolff, Susann; Russwinkel, Nele

2017-01-01

Decision-making is a high-level cognitive process based on cognitive processes like perception, attention, and memory. Real-life situations require series of decisions to be made, with each decision depending on previous feedback from a potentially changing environment. To gain a better understanding of the underlying processes of dynamic decision-making, we applied the method of cognitive modeling on a complex rule-based category learning task. Here, participants first needed to identify the conjunction of two rules that defined a target category and later adapt to a reversal of feedback contingencies. We developed an ACT-R model for the core aspects of this dynamic decision-making task. An important aim of our model was that it provides a general account of how such tasks are solved and, with minor changes, is applicable to other stimulus materials. The model was implemented as a mixture of an exemplar-based and a rule-based approach which incorporates perceptual-motor and metacognitive aspects as well. The model solves the categorization task by first trying out one-feature strategies and then, as a result of repeated negative feedback, switching to two-feature strategies. Overall, this model solves the task in a similar way as participants do, including generally successful initial learning as well as reversal learning after the change of feedback contingencies. Moreover, the fact that not all participants were successful in the two learning phases is also reflected in the modeling data. However, we found a larger variance and a lower overall performance of the modeling data as compared to the human data which may relate to perceptual preferences or additional knowledge and rules applied by the participants. In a next step, these aspects could be implemented in the model for a better overall fit. In view of the large interindividual differences in decision performance between participants, additional information about the underlying cognitive processes from behavioral, psychobiological and neurophysiological data may help to optimize future applications of this model such that it can be transferred to other domains of comparable dynamic decision tasks.

A Cognitive Modeling Approach to Strategy Formation in Dynamic Decision Making

PubMed Central

Prezenski, Sabine; Brechmann, André; Wolff, Susann; Russwinkel, Nele

2017-01-01

Decision-making is a high-level cognitive process based on cognitive processes like perception, attention, and memory. Real-life situations require series of decisions to be made, with each decision depending on previous feedback from a potentially changing environment. To gain a better understanding of the underlying processes of dynamic decision-making, we applied the method of cognitive modeling on a complex rule-based category learning task. Here, participants first needed to identify the conjunction of two rules that defined a target category and later adapt to a reversal of feedback contingencies. We developed an ACT-R model for the core aspects of this dynamic decision-making task. An important aim of our model was that it provides a general account of how such tasks are solved and, with minor changes, is applicable to other stimulus materials. The model was implemented as a mixture of an exemplar-based and a rule-based approach which incorporates perceptual-motor and metacognitive aspects as well. The model solves the categorization task by first trying out one-feature strategies and then, as a result of repeated negative feedback, switching to two-feature strategies. Overall, this model solves the task in a similar way as participants do, including generally successful initial learning as well as reversal learning after the change of feedback contingencies. Moreover, the fact that not all participants were successful in the two learning phases is also reflected in the modeling data. However, we found a larger variance and a lower overall performance of the modeling data as compared to the human data which may relate to perceptual preferences or additional knowledge and rules applied by the participants. In a next step, these aspects could be implemented in the model for a better overall fit. In view of the large interindividual differences in decision performance between participants, additional information about the underlying cognitive processes from behavioral, psychobiological and neurophysiological data may help to optimize future applications of this model such that it can be transferred to other domains of comparable dynamic decision tasks. PMID:28824512

78 FR 15381 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Submission to OMB for Reinstatement of a Previously...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-11

.../dealer selection criteria, and record credit decisions regarding deposits in financial institutions... complex investment portfolios need to address many areas of the rule. Depending on these and other factors... written report of investments; e. Obtaining price quotes on securities prior to purchase or sale; f...

48 CFR 6103.306 - Decisions [Rule 306].

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Decisions [Rule 306]. 6103.306 Section 6103.306 Federal Acquisition Regulations System CIVILIAN BOARD OF CONTRACT APPEALS, GENERAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION TRANSPORTATION RATE CASES 6103.306 Decisions [Rule 306]. The judge will issue a written decision based upon the record,...

Bayesian design of decision rules for failure detection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chow, E. Y.; Willsky, A. S.

1984-01-01

The formulation of the decision making process of a failure detection algorithm as a Bayes sequential decision problem provides a simple conceptualization of the decision rule design problem. As the optimal Bayes rule is not computable, a methodology that is based on the Bayesian approach and aimed at a reduced computational requirement is developed for designing suboptimal rules. A numerical algorithm is constructed to facilitate the design and performance evaluation of these suboptimal rules. The result of applying this design methodology to an example shows that this approach is potentially a useful one.

Mixture-based gatekeeping procedures in adaptive clinical trials.

PubMed

Kordzakhia, George; Dmitrienko, Alex; Ishida, Eiji

2018-01-01

Clinical trials with data-driven decision rules often pursue multiple clinical objectives such as the evaluation of several endpoints or several doses of an experimental treatment. These complex analysis strategies give rise to "multivariate" multiplicity problems with several components or sources of multiplicity. A general framework for defining gatekeeping procedures in clinical trials with adaptive multistage designs is proposed in this paper. The mixture method is applied to build a gatekeeping procedure at each stage and inferences at each decision point (interim or final analysis) are performed using the combination function approach. An advantage of utilizing the mixture method is that it enables powerful gatekeeping procedures applicable to a broad class of settings with complex logical relationships among the hypotheses of interest. Further, the combination function approach supports flexible data-driven decisions such as a decision to increase the sample size or remove a treatment arm. The paper concludes with a clinical trial example that illustrates the methodology by applying it to develop an adaptive two-stage design with a mixture-based gatekeeping procedure.

The impact of sleep deprivation on decision making: a review.

PubMed

Harrison, Y; Horne, J A

2000-09-01

Few sleep deprivation (SD) studies involve realism or high-level decision making, factors relevant to managers, military commanders, and so forth, who are undergoing prolonged work during crises. Instead, research has favored simple tasks sensitive to SD mostly because of their dull monotony. In contrast, complex rule-based, convergent, and logical tasks are unaffected by short-term SD, seemingly because of heightened participant interest and compensatory effort. However, recent findings show that despite this effort, SD still impairs decision making involving the unexpected, innovation, revising plans, competing distraction, and effective communication. Decision-making models developed outside SD provide useful perspectives on these latter effects, as does a neuropsychological explanation of sleep function. SD presents particular difficulties for sleep-deprived decision makers who require these latter skills during emergency situations.

Testing decision rules for categorizing species' extinction risk to help develop quantitative listing criteria for the U.S. Endangered Species Act.

PubMed

Regan, Tracey J; Taylor, Barbara L; Thompson, Grant G; Cochrane, Jean Fitts; Ralls, Katherine; Runge, Michael C; Merrick, Richard

2013-08-01

Lack of guidance for interpreting the definitions of endangered and threatened in the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) has resulted in case-by-case decision making leaving the process vulnerable to being considered arbitrary or capricious. Adopting quantitative decision rules would remedy this but requires the agency to specify the relative urgency concerning extinction events over time, cutoff risk values corresponding to different levels of protection, and the importance given to different types of listing errors. We tested the performance of 3 sets of decision rules that use alternative functions for weighting the relative urgency of future extinction events: a threshold rule set, which uses a decision rule of x% probability of extinction over y years; a concave rule set, where the relative importance of future extinction events declines exponentially over time; and a shoulder rule set that uses a sigmoid shape function, where relative importance declines slowly at first and then more rapidly. We obtained decision cutoffs by interviewing several biologists and then emulated the listing process with simulations that covered a range of extinction risks typical of ESA listing decisions. We evaluated performance of the decision rules under different data quantities and qualities on the basis of the relative importance of misclassification errors. Although there was little difference between the performance of alternative decision rules for correct listings, the distribution of misclassifications differed depending on the function used. Misclassifications for the threshold and concave listing criteria resulted in more overprotection errors, particularly as uncertainty increased, whereas errors for the shoulder listing criteria were more symmetrical. We developed and tested the framework for quantitative decision rules for listing species under the U.S. ESA. If policy values can be agreed on, use of this framework would improve the implementation of the ESA by increasing transparency and consistency. Conservation Biology © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology No claim to original US government works.

Using Case Studies in Business Education to Promote Networked Thinking: Findings of an Intervention Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pilz, Matthias; Zenner, Lea

2018-01-01

Case studies are central to the way management is currently taught at universities. Among other benefits attributed to the case study method is that it promotes networked thinking by learners. Networked thinking takes account of interactions and repercussions, making it crucial to decision-making within the complex system of rules that shapes…

The optimum decision rules for the oddity task.

PubMed

Versfeld, N J; Dai, H; Green, D M

1996-01-01

This paper presents the optimum decision rule for an m-interval oddity task in which m-1 intervals contain the same signal and one is different or odd. The optimum decision rule depends on the degree of correlation among observations. The present approach unifies the different strategies that occur with "roved" or "fixed" experiments (Macmillan & Creelman, 1991, p. 147). It is shown that the commonly used decision rule for an m-interval oddity task corresponds to the special case of highly correlated observations. However, as is also true for the same-different paradigm, there exists a different optimum decision rule when the observations are independent. The relation between the probability of a correct response and d' is derived for the three-interval oddity task. Tables are presented of this relation for the three-, four-, and five-interval oddity task. Finally, an experimental method is proposed that allows one to determine the decision rule used by the observer in an oddity experiment.

Decision-making competence in younger and older adults: which cognitive abilities contribute to the application of decision rules?

PubMed

Rosi, Alessia; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Del Missier, Fabio; Cavallini, Elena; Russo, Riccardo

2017-12-28

Older adults perform worse than younger adults when applying decision rules to choose between options that vary along multiple attributes. Although previous studies have shown that general fluid cognitive abilities contribute to the accurate application of decision rules, relatively little is known about which specific cognitive abilities play the most important role. We examined the independent roles of working memory, verbal fluency, semantic knowledge, and components of executive functioning. We found that age-related decline in applying decision rules was statistically mediated by age-related decline in working memory and verbal fluency. Our results have implications for theories of aging and decision-making.

Implementation of adapted PECARN decision rule for children with minor head injury in the pediatric emergency department.

PubMed

Bressan, Silvia; Romanato, Sabrina; Mion, Teresa; Zanconato, Stefania; Da Dalt, Liviana

2012-07-01

Of the currently published clinical decision rules for the management of minor head injury (MHI) in children, the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN) rule, derived and validated in a large multicenter prospective study cohort, with high methodologic standards, appears to be the best clinical decision rule to accurately identify children at very low risk of clinically important traumatic brain injuries (ciTBI) in the pediatric emergency department (PED). This study describes the implementation of an adapted version of the PECARN rule in a tertiary care academic PED in Italy and evaluates implementation success, in terms of medical staff adherence and satisfaction, as well as its effects on clinical practice. The adapted PECARN decision rule algorithms for children (one for those younger than 2 years and one for those older than 2 years) were actively implemented in the PED of Padova, Italy, for a 6-month testing period. Adherence and satisfaction of medical staff to the new rule were calculated. Data from 356 visits for MHI during PECARN rule implementation and those of 288 patients attending the PED for MHI in the previous 6 months were compared for changes in computed tomography (CT) scan rate, ciTBI rate (defined as death, neurosurgery, intubation for longer than 24 hours, or hospital admission at least for two nights associated with TBI) and return visits for symptoms or signs potentially related to MHI. The safety and efficacy of the adapted PECARN rule in clinical practice were also calculated. Adherence to the adapted PECARN rule was 93.5%. The percentage of medical staff satisfied with the new rule, in terms of usefulness and ease of use for rapid decision-making, was significantly higher (96% vs. 51%, p<0.0001) compared to the previous, more complex, internal guideline. CT scan was performed in 30 patients (8.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI]=6% to 11.8%) in the implementation period versus 21 patients (7.3%, 95% CI=4.8% to 10.9%) before implementation. A ciTBI occurred in three children (0.8%, 95% CI=0.3 to 2.5) during the implementation period and in two children (0.7%, 95% CI=0.2 to 2.5) in the prior 6 months. There were five return visits (1.4%) postimplementation and seven (2.4%) before implementation (p=0.506). The safety of use of the adapted PECARN rule in clinical practice was 100% (95% CI=36.8 to 100; three of three patients with ciTBI who received CT scan at first evaluation), while efficacy was 92.3% (95% CI=89 to 95; 326 of 353 patients without ciTBI who did not receive a CT scan). The adapted PECARN rule was successfully implemented in an Italian tertiary care academic PED, achieving high adherence and satisfaction of medical staff. Its use determined a low CT scan rate that was unchanged compared to previous clinical practice and showed an optimal safety and high efficacy profile. Strict monitoring is mandatory to evaluate the long-lasting benefit in patient care and/or resource utilization. © 2012 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

The effects of normal aging on multiple aspects of financial decision-making.

PubMed

Bangma, Dorien F; Fuermaier, Anselm B M; Tucha, Lara; Tucha, Oliver; Koerts, Janneke

2017-01-01

Financial decision-making (FDM) is crucial for independent living. Due to cognitive decline that accompanies normal aging, older adults might have difficulties in some aspects of FDM. However, an improved knowledge, personal experience and affective decision-making, which are also related to normal aging, may lead to a stable or even improved age-related performance in some other aspects of FDM. Therefore, the present explorative study examines the effects of normal aging on multiple aspects of FDM. One-hundred and eighty participants (range 18-87 years) were assessed with eight FDM tests and several standard neuropsychological tests. Age effects were evaluated using hierarchical multiple regression analyses. The validity of the prediction models was examined by internal validation (i.e. bootstrap resampling procedure) as well as external validation on another, independent, sample of participants (n = 124). Multiple regression and correlation analyses were applied to investigate the mediation effect of standard measures of cognition on the observed effects of age on FDM. On a relatively basic level of FDM (e.g., paying bills or using FDM styles) no significant effects of aging were found. However more complex FDM, such as making decisions in accordance with specific rules, becomes more difficult with advancing age. Furthermore, an older age was found to be related to a decreased sensitivity for impulsive buying. These results were confirmed by the internal and external validation analyses. Mediation effects of numeracy and planning were found to explain parts of the association between one aspect of FDM (i.e. Competence in decision rules) and age; however, these cognitive domains were not able to completely explain the relation between age and FDM. Normal aging has a negative influence on a complex aspect of FDM, however, other aspects appear to be unaffected by normal aging or improve.

Automated control of hierarchical systems using value-driven methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pugh, George E.; Burke, Thomas E.

1990-01-01

An introduction is given to the Value-driven methodology, which has been successfully applied to solve a variety of difficult decision, control, and optimization problems. Many real-world decision processes (e.g., those encountered in scheduling, allocation, and command and control) involve a hierarchy of complex planning considerations. For such problems it is virtually impossible to define a fixed set of rules that will operate satisfactorily over the full range of probable contingencies. Decision Science Applications' value-driven methodology offers a systematic way of automating the intuitive, common-sense approach used by human planners. The inherent responsiveness of value-driven systems to user-controlled priorities makes them particularly suitable for semi-automated applications in which the user must remain in command of the systems operation. Three examples of the practical application of the approach in the automation of hierarchical decision processes are discussed: the TAC Brawler air-to-air combat simulation is a four-level computerized hierarchy; the autonomous underwater vehicle mission planning system is a three-level control system; and the Space Station Freedom electrical power control and scheduling system is designed as a two-level hierarchy. The methodology is compared with rule-based systems and with other more widely-known optimization techniques.

Pharmacogenomic knowledge representation, reasoning and genome-based clinical decision support based on OWL 2 DL ontologies.

PubMed

Samwald, Matthias; Miñarro Giménez, Jose Antonio; Boyce, Richard D; Freimuth, Robert R; Adlassnig, Klaus-Peter; Dumontier, Michel

2015-02-22

Every year, hundreds of thousands of patients experience treatment failure or adverse drug reactions (ADRs), many of which could be prevented by pharmacogenomic testing. However, the primary knowledge needed for clinical pharmacogenomics is currently dispersed over disparate data structures and captured in unstructured or semi-structured formalizations. This is a source of potential ambiguity and complexity, making it difficult to create reliable information technology systems for enabling clinical pharmacogenomics. We developed Web Ontology Language (OWL) ontologies and automated reasoning methodologies to meet the following goals: 1) provide a simple and concise formalism for representing pharmacogenomic knowledge, 2) finde errors and insufficient definitions in pharmacogenomic knowledge bases, 3) automatically assign alleles and phenotypes to patients, 4) match patients to clinically appropriate pharmacogenomic guidelines and clinical decision support messages and 5) facilitate the detection of inconsistencies and overlaps between pharmacogenomic treatment guidelines from different sources. We evaluated different reasoning systems and test our approach with a large collection of publicly available genetic profiles. Our methodology proved to be a novel and useful choice for representing, analyzing and using pharmacogenomic data. The Genomic Clinical Decision Support (Genomic CDS) ontology represents 336 SNPs with 707 variants; 665 haplotypes related to 43 genes; 22 rules related to drug-response phenotypes; and 308 clinical decision support rules. OWL reasoning identified CDS rules with overlapping target populations but differing treatment recommendations. Only a modest number of clinical decision support rules were triggered for a collection of 943 public genetic profiles. We found significant performance differences across available OWL reasoners. The ontology-based framework we developed can be used to represent, organize and reason over the growing wealth of pharmacogenomic knowledge, as well as to identify errors, inconsistencies and insufficient definitions in source data sets or individual patient data. Our study highlights both advantages and potential practical issues with such an ontology-based approach.

Requiem for the max rule?

PubMed Central

Ma, Wei Ji; Shen, Shan; Dziugaite, Gintare; van den Berg, Ronald

2015-01-01

In tasks such as visual search and change detection, a key question is how observers integrate noisy measurements from multiple locations to make a decision. Decision rules proposed to model this process haven fallen into two categories: Bayes-optimal (ideal observer) rules and ad-hoc rules. Among the latter, the maximum-of-outputs (max) rule has been most prominent. Reviewing recent work and performing new model comparisons across a range of paradigms, we find that in all cases except for one, the optimal rule describes human data as well as or better than every max rule either previously proposed or newly introduced here. This casts doubt on the utility of the max rule for understanding perceptual decision-making. PMID:25584425

A Decision Making Methodology in Support of the Business Rules Lifecycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wild, Christopher; Rosca, Daniela

1998-01-01

The business rules that underlie an enterprise emerge as a new category of system requirements that represent decisions about how to run the business, and which are characterized by their business-orientation and their propensity for change. In this report, we introduce a decision making methodology which addresses several aspects of the business rules lifecycle: acquisition, deployment and evolution. We describe a meta-model for representing business rules in terms of an enterprise model, and also a decision support submodel for reasoning about and deriving the rules. The possibility for lifecycle automated assistance is demonstrated in terms of the automatic extraction of business rules from the decision structure. A system based on the metamodel has been implemented, including the extraction algorithm. This is the final report for Daniela Rosca's PhD fellowship. It describes the work we have done over the past year, current research and the list of publications associated with her thesis topic.

Increasing Complexity in Rule-Based Clinical Decision Support: The Symptom Assessment and Management Intervention.

PubMed

Lobach, David F; Johns, Ellis B; Halpenny, Barbara; Saunders, Toni-Ann; Brzozowski, Jane; Del Fiol, Guilherme; Berry, Donna L; Braun, Ilana M; Finn, Kathleen; Wolfe, Joanne; Abrahm, Janet L; Cooley, Mary E

2016-11-08

Management of uncontrolled symptoms is an important component of quality cancer care. Clinical guidelines are available for optimal symptom management, but are not often integrated into the front lines of care. The use of clinical decision support (CDS) at the point-of-care is an innovative way to incorporate guideline-based symptom management into routine cancer care. The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate a rule-based CDS system to enable management of multiple symptoms in lung cancer patients at the point-of-care. This study was conducted in three phases involving a formative evaluation, a system evaluation, and a contextual evaluation of clinical use. In Phase 1, we conducted iterative usability testing of user interface prototypes with patients and health care providers (HCPs) in two thoracic oncology clinics. In Phase 2, we programmed complex algorithms derived from clinical practice guidelines into a rules engine that used Web services to communicate with the end-user application. Unit testing of algorithms was conducted using a stack-traversal tree-spanning methodology to identify all possible permutations of pathways through each algorithm, to validate accuracy. In Phase 3, we evaluated clinical use of the system among patients and HCPs in the two clinics via observations, structured interviews, and questionnaires. In Phase 1, 13 patients and 5 HCPs engaged in two rounds of formative testing, and suggested improvements leading to revisions until overall usability scores met a priori benchmarks. In Phase 2, symptom management algorithms contained between 29 and 1425 decision nodes, resulting in 19 to 3194 unique pathways per algorithm. Unit testing required 240 person-hours, and integration testing required 40 person-hours. In Phase 3, both patients and HCPs found the system usable and acceptable, and offered suggestions for improvements. A rule-based CDS system for complex symptom management was systematically developed and tested. The complexity of the algorithms required extensive development and innovative testing. The Web service-based approach allowed remote access to CDS knowledge, and could enable scaling and sharing of this knowledge to accelerate availability, and reduce duplication of effort. Patients and HCPs found the system to be usable and useful. ©David F Lobach, Ellis B Johns, Barbara Halpenny, Toni-Ann Saunders, Jane Brzozowski, Guilherme Del Fiol, Donna L Berry, Ilana M Braun, Kathleen Finn, Joanne Wolfe, Janet L Abrahm, Mary E Cooley. Originally published in JMIR Medical Informatics (http://medinform.jmir.org), 08.11.2016.

38 CFR 20.1303 - Rule 1303. Nonprecedential nature of Board decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Rule 1303. Nonprecedential nature of Board decisions. 20.1303 Section 20.1303 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief....1303 Rule 1303. Nonprecedential nature of Board decisions. Although the Board strives for consistency...

38 CFR 20.1303 - Rule 1303. Nonprecedential nature of Board decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Rule 1303. Nonprecedential nature of Board decisions. 20.1303 Section 20.1303 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief....1303 Rule 1303. Nonprecedential nature of Board decisions. Although the Board strives for consistency...

38 CFR 20.1303 - Rule 1303. Nonprecedential nature of Board decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Rule 1303. Nonprecedential nature of Board decisions. 20.1303 Section 20.1303 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief....1303 Rule 1303. Nonprecedential nature of Board decisions. Although the Board strives for consistency...

38 CFR 20.1303 - Rule 1303. Nonprecedential nature of Board decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Rule 1303. Nonprecedential nature of Board decisions. 20.1303 Section 20.1303 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief....1303 Rule 1303. Nonprecedential nature of Board decisions. Although the Board strives for consistency...

38 CFR 20.1303 - Rule 1303. Nonprecedential nature of Board decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Rule 1303. Nonprecedential nature of Board decisions. 20.1303 Section 20.1303 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief....1303 Rule 1303. Nonprecedential nature of Board decisions. Although the Board strives for consistency...

19 CFR 177.10 - Publication of decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 19 Customs Duties 2 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Publication of decisions. 177.10 Section 177.10... TREASURY (CONTINUED) ADMINISTRATIVE RULINGS General Ruling Procedure § 177.10 Publication of decisions. (a....8(a)(3). (b) [Reserved] (c) Changes of practice. Before the publication of a ruling which has the...

Sport-related concussions in adolescent athletes: a critical public health problem for which prevention remains an elusive goal

PubMed Central

Fidrocki, Diana; Parachuri, Venu

2017-01-01

Sport-related concussions in young athletes are common, generally under reported and often unrecognized. Preventive strategies include education, modification of sport rules, use of equipment such as headgears, face masks and mouth guards, and neck muscle training. Evidence is limited to support effectiveness of these preventive measures with the exception of rule modification in some sports. In the United States, laws have been enacted that require medical evaluation and clearance prior to return to play; however, evidence thus far does not show that laws have been effective in reducing the incidence of concussions in sport. More research is needed in all areas of preventive measures. Sports participation is a complex personal decision on the part of the adolescent and his or her family. They should be provided with all information on inherent risks so that they can make an informed decision. PMID:28795000

Management Design Theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pries-Heje, Jan; Baskerville, Richard L.

This paper elaborates a design science approach for management planning anchored to the concept of a management design theory. Unlike the notions of design theories arising from information systems, management design theories can appear as a system of technological rules, much as a system of hypotheses or propositions can embody scientific theories. The paper illus trates this form of management design theories with three grounded cases. These grounded cases include a software process improvement study, a user involvement study, and an organizational change study. Collectively these studies demonstrate how design theories founded on technological rules can not only improve the design of information systems, but that these concepts have great practical value for improving the framing of strategic organi zational design decisions about such systems. Each case is either grounded in an empirical sense, that is to say, actual practice, or it is grounded to practices described extensively in the practical literature. Such design theories will help managers more easily approach complex, strategic decisions.

A Swarm Optimization approach for clinical knowledge mining.

PubMed

Christopher, J Jabez; Nehemiah, H Khanna; Kannan, A

2015-10-01

Rule-based classification is a typical data mining task that is being used in several medical diagnosis and decision support systems. The rules stored in the rule base have an impact on classification efficiency. Rule sets that are extracted with data mining tools and techniques are optimized using heuristic or meta-heuristic approaches in order to improve the quality of the rule base. In this work, a meta-heuristic approach called Wind-driven Swarm Optimization (WSO) is used. The uniqueness of this work lies in the biological inspiration that underlies the algorithm. WSO uses Jval, a new metric, to evaluate the efficiency of a rule-based classifier. Rules are extracted from decision trees. WSO is used to obtain different permutations and combinations of rules whereby the optimal ruleset that satisfies the requirement of the developer is used for predicting the test data. The performance of various extensions of decision trees, namely, RIPPER, PART, FURIA and Decision Tables are analyzed. The efficiency of WSO is also compared with the traditional Particle Swarm Optimization. Experiments were carried out with six benchmark medical datasets. The traditional C4.5 algorithm yields 62.89% accuracy with 43 rules for liver disorders dataset where as WSO yields 64.60% with 19 rules. For Heart disease dataset, C4.5 is 68.64% accurate with 98 rules where as WSO is 77.8% accurate with 34 rules. The normalized standard deviation for accuracy of PSO and WSO are 0.5921 and 0.5846 respectively. WSO provides accurate and concise rulesets. PSO yields results similar to that of WSO but the novelty of WSO lies in its biological motivation and it is customization for rule base optimization. The trade-off between the prediction accuracy and the size of the rule base is optimized during the design and development of rule-based clinical decision support system. The efficiency of a decision support system relies on the content of the rule base and classification accuracy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conformance Testing: Measurement Decision Rules

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mimbs, Scott M.

2010-01-01

The goal of a Quality Management System (QMS) as specified in ISO 9001 and AS9100 is to provide assurance to the customer that end products meet specifications. Measuring devices, often called measuring and test equipment (MTE), are used to provide the evidence of product conformity to specified requirements. Unfortunately, processes that employ MTE can become a weak link to the overall QMS if proper attention is not given to the measurement process design, capability, and implementation. Documented "decision rules" establish the requirements to ensure measurement processes provide the measurement data that supports the needs of the QMS. Measurement data are used to make the decisions that impact all areas of technology. Whether measurements support research, design, production, or maintenance, ensuring the data supports the decision is crucial. Measurement data quality can be critical to the resulting consequences of measurement-based decisions. Historically, most industries required simplistic, one-size-fits-all decision rules for measurements. One-size-fits-all rules in some cases are not rigorous enough to provide adequate measurement results, while in other cases are overly conservative and too costly to implement. Ideally, decision rules should be rigorous enough to match the criticality of the parameter being measured, while being flexible enough to be cost effective. The goal of a decision rule is to ensure that measurement processes provide data with a sufficient level of quality to support the decisions being made - no more, no less. This paper discusses the basic concepts of providing measurement-based evidence that end products meet specifications. Although relevant to all measurement-based conformance tests, the target audience is the MTE end-user, which is anyone using MTE other than calibration service providers. Topics include measurement fundamentals, the associated decision risks, verifying conformance to specifications, and basic measurement decisions rules.

Automated rule-base creation via CLIPS-Induce

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, Patrick M.

1994-01-01

Many CLIPS rule-bases contain one or more rule groups that perform classification. In this paper we describe CLIPS-Induce, an automated system for the creation of a CLIPS classification rule-base from a set of test cases. CLIPS-Induce consists of two components, a decision tree induction component and a CLIPS production extraction component. ID3, a popular decision tree induction algorithm, is used to induce a decision tree from the test cases. CLIPS production extraction is accomplished through a top-down traversal of the decision tree. Nodes of the tree are used to construct query rules, and branches of the tree are used to construct classification rules. The learned CLIPS productions may easily be incorporated into a large CLIPS system that perform tasks such as accessing a database or displaying information.

Two vs. One Keep Away: A Simple Game of Beginning Tactics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Belka, David E.

2005-01-01

In the last decade or so, there has been a shift toward small-sided games played in smaller spaces, with limited rules and an emphasis on tactics. The goal of the current instruction is to use less complex game settings to develop players who then learn to make more appropriate and quicker tactical decisions. In this article, the author presents…

Aiding eco-labelling process and its implementation: Environmental Impact Assessment Methodology to define Product Category Rules for canned anchovies.

PubMed

Laso, Jara; Margallo, María; Fullana, Pére; Bala, Alba; Gazulla, Cristina; Irabien, Ángel; Aldaco, Rubén

2017-01-01

To be able to fulfil high market expectations for a number of practical applications, Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) have to meet and comply with specific and strict methodological prerequisites. These expectations include the possibility to add up Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)-based information in the supply chain and to compare different EPDs. To achieve this goal, common and harmonized calculation rules have to be established, the so-called Product Category Rules (PCRs), which set the overall LCA calculation rules to create EPDs. This document provides PCRs for the assessment of the environmental performance of canned anchovies in Cantabria Region based on an Environmental Sustainability Assessment (ESA) method. This method uses two main variables: the natural resources sustainability (NRS) and the environmental burdens sustainability (EBS). To reduce the complexity of ESA and facilitate the decision-making process, all variables are normalized and weighted to obtain two global dimensionless indexes: resource consumption (X 1 ) and environmental burdens (X 2 ). •This paper sets the PCRs adapted to the Cantabrian canned anchovies.•ESA method facilitates the product comparison and the decision-making process.•This paper stablishes all the steps that an EPD should include within the PCRs of Cantabrian canned anchovies.

Requiem for the max rule?

PubMed

Ma, Wei Ji; Shen, Shan; Dziugaite, Gintare; van den Berg, Ronald

2015-11-01

In tasks such as visual search and change detection, a key question is how observers integrate noisy measurements from multiple locations to make a decision. Decision rules proposed to model this process have fallen into two categories: Bayes-optimal (ideal observer) rules and ad-hoc rules. Among the latter, the maximum-of-outputs (max) rule has been the most prominent. Reviewing recent work and performing new model comparisons across a range of paradigms, we find that in all cases except for one, the optimal rule describes human data as well as or better than every max rule either previously proposed or newly introduced here. This casts doubt on the utility of the max rule for understanding perceptual decision-making. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of clinical decision rules on clinical care of traumatic injuries to the foot and ankle, knee, cervical spine, and head.

PubMed

Perry, Jeffrey J; Stiell, Ian G

2006-12-01

Traumatic injuries to the ankle/foot, knee, cervical spine, and head are very commonly seen in emergency and accident departments around the world. There has been much interest in the development of clinical decision rules to help guide the investigations of these patients in a standardised and cost-effective manner. In this article we reviewed the impact of the Ottawa ankle rules, Ottawa knee rules, Canadian C-spine rule and the Canadian CT head rule. The studies conducted have confirmed that the use of well developed clinical decision rules results in less radiography, less time spent in the emergency department and does not decrease patient satisfaction or result in misdiagnosis. Emergency physicians around the world should adopt the use of clinical decision rules for ankle/foot, knee, cervical spine and minor head injuries. With relatively simple implementation strategies, care can be standardized and costs reduced while providing excellent clinical care.

Clinical decision making: how surgeons do it.

PubMed

Crebbin, Wendy; Beasley, Spencer W; Watters, David A K

2013-06-01

Clinical decision making is a core competency of surgical practice. It involves two distinct types of mental process best considered as the ends of a continuum, ranging from intuitive and subconscious to analytical and conscious. In practice, individual decisions are usually reached by a combination of each, according to the complexity of the situation and the experience/expertise of the surgeon. An expert moves effortlessly along this continuum, according to need, able to apply learned rules or algorithms to specific presentations, choosing these as a result of either pattern recognition or analytical thinking. The expert recognizes and responds quickly to any mismatch between what is observed and what was expected, coping with gaps in information and making decisions even where critical data may be uncertain or unknown. Even for experts, the cognitive processes involved are difficult to articulate as they tend to be very complex. However, if surgeons are to assist trainees in developing their decision-making skills, the processes need to be identified and defined, and the competency needs to be measurable. This paper examines the processes of clinical decision making in three contexts: making a decision about how to manage a patient; preparing for an operative procedure; and reviewing progress during an operative procedure. The models represented here are an exploration of the complexity of the processes, designed to assist surgeons understand how expert clinical decision making occurs and to highlight the challenge of teaching these skills to surgical trainees. © 2013 The Authors. ANZ Journal of Surgery © 2013 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

Interpretable Decision Sets: A Joint Framework for Description and Prediction

PubMed Central

Lakkaraju, Himabindu; Bach, Stephen H.; Jure, Leskovec

2016-01-01

One of the most important obstacles to deploying predictive models is the fact that humans do not understand and trust them. Knowing which variables are important in a model’s prediction and how they are combined can be very powerful in helping people understand and trust automatic decision making systems. Here we propose interpretable decision sets, a framework for building predictive models that are highly accurate, yet also highly interpretable. Decision sets are sets of independent if-then rules. Because each rule can be applied independently, decision sets are simple, concise, and easily interpretable. We formalize decision set learning through an objective function that simultaneously optimizes accuracy and interpretability of the rules. In particular, our approach learns short, accurate, and non-overlapping rules that cover the whole feature space and pay attention to small but important classes. Moreover, we prove that our objective is a non-monotone submodular function, which we efficiently optimize to find a near-optimal set of rules. Experiments show that interpretable decision sets are as accurate at classification as state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. They are also three times smaller on average than rule-based models learned by other methods. Finally, results of a user study show that people are able to answer multiple-choice questions about the decision boundaries of interpretable decision sets and write descriptions of classes based on them faster and more accurately than with other rule-based models that were designed for interpretability. Overall, our framework provides a new approach to interpretable machine learning that balances accuracy, interpretability, and computational efficiency. PMID:27853627

A model-driven privacy compliance decision support for medical data sharing in Europe.

PubMed

Boussi Rahmouni, H; Solomonides, T; Casassa Mont, M; Shiu, S; Rahmouni, M

2011-01-01

Clinical practitioners and medical researchers often have to share health data with other colleagues across Europe. Privacy compliance in this context is very important but challenging. Automated privacy guidelines are a practical way of increasing users' awareness of privacy obligations and help eliminating unintentional breaches of privacy. In this paper we present an ontology-plus-rules based approach to privacy decision support for the sharing of patient data across European platforms. We use ontologies to model the required domain and context information about data sharing and privacy requirements. In addition, we use a set of Semantic Web Rule Language rules to reason about legal privacy requirements that are applicable to a specific context of data disclosure. We make the complete set invocable through the use of a semantic web application acting as an interactive privacy guideline system can then invoke the full model in order to provide decision support. When asked, the system will generate privacy reports applicable to a specific case of data disclosure described by the user. Also reports showing guidelines per Member State may be obtained. The advantage of this approach lies in the expressiveness and extensibility of the modelling and inference languages adopted and the ability they confer to reason with complex requirements interpreted from high level regulations. However, the system cannot at this stage fully simulate the role of an ethics committee or review board.

Analyzing Strategic Business Rules through Simulation Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orta, Elena; Ruiz, Mercedes; Toro, Miguel

Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) holds promise for business agility since it allows business process to change to meet new customer demands or market needs without causing a cascade effect of changes in the underlying IT systems. Business rules are the instrument chosen to help business and IT to collaborate. In this paper, we propose the utilization of simulation models to model and simulate strategic business rules that are then disaggregated at different levels of an SOA architecture. Our proposal is aimed to help find a good configuration for strategic business objectives and IT parameters. The paper includes a case study where a simulation model is built to help business decision-making in a context where finding a good configuration for different business parameters and performance is too complex to analyze by trial and error.

Administrative review process for adjudicating initial disability claims. Final rule.

PubMed

2006-03-31

The Social Security Administration is committed to providing the high quality of service the American people expect and deserve. In light of the significant growth in the number of disability claims and the increased complexity of those claims, the need to make substantial changes in our disability determination process has become urgent. We are publishing a final rule that amends our administrative review process for applications for benefits that are based on whether you are disabled under title II of the Social Security Act (the Act), or applications for supplemental security income (SSI) payments that are based on whether you are disabled or blind under title XVI of the Act. We expect that this final rule will improve the accuracy, consistency, and timeliness of decision-making throughout the disability determination process.

Decision Rules Used in Academic Program Closure: Where the Rubber Meets the Road.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eckel, Peter D.

This study examines, from an organizational perspective, decision rules guiding program discontinuance, testing the framework of decision rule rationality versus action rationality. A multi-site case study method was used; interviews were conducted with 11-16 individuals at each of four research I or II universities that had discontinued at least…

Logical-rule models of classification response times: a synthesis of mental-architecture, random-walk, and decision-bound approaches.

PubMed

Fific, Mario; Little, Daniel R; Nosofsky, Robert M

2010-04-01

We formalize and provide tests of a set of logical-rule models for predicting perceptual classification response times (RTs) and choice probabilities. The models are developed by synthesizing mental-architecture, random-walk, and decision-bound approaches. According to the models, people make independent decisions about the locations of stimuli along a set of component dimensions. Those independent decisions are then combined via logical rules to determine the overall categorization response. The time course of the independent decisions is modeled via random-walk processes operating along individual dimensions. Alternative mental architectures are used as mechanisms for combining the independent decisions to implement the logical rules. We derive fundamental qualitative contrasts for distinguishing among the predictions of the rule models and major alternative models of classification RT. We also use the models to predict detailed RT-distribution data associated with individual stimuli in tasks of speeded perceptual classification. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

Optimal operating rules definition in complex water resource systems combining fuzzy logic, expert criteria and stochastic programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macian-Sorribes, Hector; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2016-04-01

This contribution presents a methodology for defining optimal seasonal operating rules in multireservoir systems coupling expert criteria and stochastic optimization. Both sources of information are combined using fuzzy logic. The structure of the operating rules is defined based on expert criteria, via a joint expert-technician framework consisting in a series of meetings, workshops and surveys carried out between reservoir managers and modelers. As a result, the decision-making process used by managers can be assessed and expressed using fuzzy logic: fuzzy rule-based systems are employed to represent the operating rules and fuzzy regression procedures are used for forecasting future inflows. Once done that, a stochastic optimization algorithm can be used to define optimal decisions and transform them into fuzzy rules. Finally, the optimal fuzzy rules and the inflow prediction scheme are combined into a Decision Support System for making seasonal forecasts and simulate the effect of different alternatives in response to the initial system state and the foreseen inflows. The approach presented has been applied to the Jucar River Basin (Spain). Reservoir managers explained how the system is operated, taking into account the reservoirs' states at the beginning of the irrigation season and the inflows previewed during that season. According to the information given by them, the Jucar River Basin operating policies were expressed via two fuzzy rule-based (FRB) systems that estimate the amount of water to be allocated to the users and how the reservoir storages should be balanced to guarantee those deliveries. A stochastic optimization model using Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) was developed to define optimal decisions, which are transformed into optimal operating rules embedding them into the two FRBs previously created. As a benchmark, historical records are used to develop alternative operating rules. A fuzzy linear regression procedure was employed to foresee future inflows depending on present and past hydrological and meteorological variables actually used by the reservoir managers to define likely inflow scenarios. A Decision Support System (DSS) was created coupling the FRB systems and the inflow prediction scheme in order to give the user a set of possible optimal releases in response to the reservoir states at the beginning of the irrigation season and the fuzzy inflow projections made using hydrological and meteorological information. The results show that the optimal DSS created using the FRB operating policies are able to increase the amount of water allocated to the users in 20 to 50 Mm3 per irrigation season with respect to the current policies. Consequently, the mechanism used to define optimal operating rules and transform them into a DSS is able to increase the water deliveries in the Jucar River Basin, combining expert criteria and optimization algorithms in an efficient way. This study has been partially supported by the IMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-1-R) with Spanish MINECO (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad) and FEDER funds. It also has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the IMPREX project (grant agreement no: 641.811).

14 CFR 16.227 - Standard of proof.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Standard of proof. 16.227 Section 16.227 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES RULES OF... hearing officer shall issue an initial decision or rule in a party's favor only if the decision or ruling...

Presenting Germany's drug pricing rule as a cost-per-QALY rule.

PubMed

Gandjour, Afschin

2012-06-01

In Germany, the Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG) makes recommendations for ceiling prices of drugs based on an evaluation of the relationship between costs and effectiveness. To set ceiling prices, IQWiG uses the following decision rule: the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of a new drug compared with the next effective intervention should not be higher than that of the next effective intervention compared to its comparator. The purpose of this paper is to show that IQWiG's decision rule can be presented as a cost-per-QALY rule by using equity-weighted QALYs. This transformation shows where both rules share commonalities. Furthermore, it makes the underlying ethical implications of IQWiG's decision rule transparent and open to debate.

Emergency physicians' attitudes toward and use of clinical decision rules for radiography.

PubMed

Graham, I D; Stiell, I G; Laupacis, A; O'Connor, A M; Wells, G A

1998-02-01

1) To assess Canadian emergency physicians' (EPs') use of and attitudes toward 2 radiographic clinical decision rules that have recently been developed and to identify physician characteristics associated with decision rule use; 2) to determine the use of CT head and cervical spine radiography by EPs and their beliefs about the appropriateness of expert recommendations supporting the routine use of these radiographic procedures; and 3) to determine the potential acceptance of clinical decision rules for CT scan in patients with minor head injury and cervical spine radiography in trauma patients. A cross-sectional anonymous mail survey of a random sample of 300 members of the Canadian Association of Emergency Physicians using Dillman's Total Design Method for mail surveys. Of 288 eligible physicians, 232 (81%) responded. More than 95% of the respondents stated they currently used the Ottawa Ankle Rules and were willing to consider using the newly developed Ottawa Knee Rule. Physician characteristics related to frequent use of the Ottawa Ankle Rules were younger age, fewer years since graduating from medical school, part time or resident employment status, working in a hospital without a CT scanner, and believing that decision rules are not oversimplified cookbook medicine or too rigid to apply. Eighty-five percent did not agree that all patients with minor head injuries should receive a CT head scan and only 3.5% stated they always refer such patients for CT scan. Similarly, 78.5% of the respondents did not agree that all trauma patients should receive cervical spine radiography and only 13.2% said they always refer such patients for cervical spine radiography. Ninety-seven and 98% stated they would be willing to consider using well-validated decision rules for CT scan of the head and cervical spine radiography, respectively. Fifty-two percent and 67% of the respondents required the proposed CT and C-spine to be 100% sensitive for identifying serious injuries, respectively. Canadian EPs are generally supportive of clinical decision rules and, in particular, have very positive attitudes toward the Ottawa Ankle and Knee Rules. Furthermore, EPs disagree with recommendations for routine use of CT head and cervical spine radiography and strongly support the development of well-validated decision rules for the use of CT head and cervical spine radiography. Most EPs expected the latter rules to be 100% sensitive for acute clinically significant lesions.

Portfolio theory and the alternative decision rule of cost-effectiveness analysis: theoretical and practical considerations.

PubMed

Sendi, Pedram; Al, Maiwenn J; Gafni, Amiram; Birch, Stephen

2004-05-01

Bridges and Terris (Soc. Sci. Med. (2004)) critique our paper on the alternative decision rule of economic evaluation in the presence of uncertainty and constrained resources within the context of a portfolio of health care programs (Sendi et al. Soc. Sci. Med. 57 (2003) 2207). They argue that by not adopting a formal portfolio theory approach we overlook the optimal solution. We show that these arguments stem from a fundamental misunderstanding of the alternative decision rule of economic evaluation. In particular, the portfolio theory approach advocated by Bridges and Terris is based on the same theoretical assumptions that the alternative decision rule set out to relax. Moreover, Bridges and Terris acknowledge that the proposed portfolio theory approach may not identify the optimal solution to resource allocation problems. Hence, it provides neither theoretical nor practical improvements to the proposed alternative decision rule.

Awareness and use of the Ottawa ankle and knee rules in 5 countries: can publication alone be enough to change practice?

PubMed

Graham, I D; Stiell, I G; Laupacis, A; McAuley, L; Howell, M; Clancy, M; Durieux, P; Simon, N; Emparanza, J I; Aginaga, J R; O'connor, A; Wells, G

2001-03-01

We evaluate the international diffusion of the Ottawa Ankle and Knee Rules and determine emergency physicians' attitudes toward clinical decision rules in general. We conducted a cross-sectional, self-administered mail survey of random samples of 500 members each of the American College of Emergency Physicians, Canadian Association of Emergency Physicians, British Association for Accident and Emergency Medicine, Spanish Society for Emergency Medicine, and all members (n=1,350) of the French Speaking Society of Emergency Physicians, France. Main outcome measures were awareness of the Ottawa Ankle and Knee Rules, reported use of these rules, and attitudes toward clinical decision rules in general. A total of 1,769 (57%) emergency physicians responded, with country-specific response rates between 49% (United States and France) and 79% (Canada). More than 69% of physicians in all countries, except Spain, were aware of the Ottawa Ankle Rules. Use of the Ottawa Ankle Rules differed by country with more than 70% of all responding Canadian and United Kingdom physicians reporting frequent use of the rules compared with fewer than one third of US, French, and Spanish physicians. The Ottawa Knee Rule was less well known and less used by physicians in all countries. Most physicians in all countries viewed decision rules as intended to improve the quality of health care (>78%), a convenient source of advice (>67%), and good educational tools (>61%). Of all physicians, those from the United States held the least positive attitudes toward decision rules. This constitutes the largest international survey of emergency physicians' attitudes toward and use of clinical decision rules. Striking differences were apparent among countries with regard to knowledge and use of decision rules. Despite similar awareness in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, US physicians appeared much less likely to use the Ottawa Ankle Rules. Future research should investigate factors leading to differences in rates of diffusion among countries and address strategies to enhance dissemination and implementation of such rules in the emergency department.

How Family Status and Social Security Claiming Options Shape Optimal Life Cycle Portfolios

PubMed Central

Hubener, Andreas; Maurer, Raimond; Mitchell, Olivia S.

2017-01-01

We show how optimal household decisions regarding work, retirement, saving, portfolio allocations, and life insurance are shaped by the complex financial options embedded in U.S. Social Security rules and uncertain family transitions. Our life cycle model predicts sharp consumption drops on retirement, an age-62 peak in claiming rates, and earlier claiming by wives versus husbands and single women. Moreover, life insurance is mainly purchased on men’s lives. Our model, which takes Social Security rules seriously, generates wealth and retirement outcomes that are more consistent with the data, in contrast to earlier and less realistic models. PMID:28659659

Informing the design of clinical decision support services for evaluation of children with minor blunt head trauma in the emergency department: a sociotechnical analysis.

PubMed

Sheehan, Barbara; Nigrovic, Lise E; Dayan, Peter S; Kuppermann, Nathan; Ballard, Dustin W; Alessandrini, Evaline; Bajaj, Lalit; Goldberg, Howard; Hoffman, Jeffrey; Offerman, Steven R; Mark, Dustin G; Swietlik, Marguerite; Tham, Eric; Tzimenatos, Leah; Vinson, David R; Jones, Grant S; Bakken, Suzanne

2013-10-01

Integration of clinical decision support services (CDSS) into electronic health records (EHRs) may be integral to widespread dissemination and use of clinical prediction rules in the emergency department (ED). However, the best way to design such services to maximize their usefulness in such a complex setting is poorly understood. We conducted a multi-site cross-sectional qualitative study whose aim was to describe the sociotechnical environment in the ED to inform the design of a CDSS intervention to implement the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN) clinical prediction rules for children with minor blunt head trauma. Informed by a sociotechnical model consisting of eight dimensions, we conducted focus groups, individual interviews and workflow observations in 11 EDs, of which 5 were located in academic medical centers and 6 were in community hospitals. A total of 126 ED clinicians, information technology specialists, and administrators participated. We clustered data into 19 categories of sociotechnical factors through a process of thematic analysis and subsequently organized the categories into a sociotechnical matrix consisting of three high-level sociotechnical dimensions (workflow and communication, organizational factors, human factors) and three themes (interdisciplinary assessment processes, clinical practices related to prediction rules, EHR as a decision support tool). Design challenges that emerged from the analysis included the need to use structured data fields to support data capture and re-use while maintaining efficient care processes, supporting interdisciplinary communication, and facilitating family-clinician interaction for decision-making. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multisensor fusion with non-optimal decision rules: the challenges of open world sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minor, Christian; Johnson, Kevin

2014-05-01

In this work, simple, generic models of chemical sensing are used to simulate sensor array data and to illustrate the impact on overall system performance that specific design choices impart. The ability of multisensor systems to perform multianalyte detection (i.e., distinguish multiple targets) is explored by examining the distinction between fundamental design-related limitations stemming from mismatching of mixture composition to fused sensor measurement spaces, and limitations that arise from measurement uncertainty. Insight on the limits and potential of sensor fusion to robustly address detection tasks in realistic field conditions can be gained through an examination of a) the underlying geometry of both the composition space of sources one hopes to elucidate and the measurement space a fused sensor system is capable of generating, and b) the informational impact of uncertainty on both of these spaces. For instance, what is the potential impact on sensor fusion in an open world scenario where unknown interferants may contaminate target signals? Under complex and dynamic backgrounds, decision rules may implicitly become non-optimal and adding sensors may increase the amount of conflicting information observed. This suggests that the manner in which a decision rule handles sensor conflict can be critical in leveraging sensor fusion for effective open world sensing, and becomes exponentially more important as more sensors are added. Results and design considerations for handling conflicting evidence in Bayes and Dempster-Shafer fusion frameworks are presented. Bayesian decision theory is used to provide an upper limit on detector performance of simulated sensor systems.

Connecting clinical and actuarial prediction with rule-based methods.

PubMed

Fokkema, Marjolein; Smits, Niels; Kelderman, Henk; Penninx, Brenda W J H

2015-06-01

Meta-analyses comparing the accuracy of clinical versus actuarial prediction have shown actuarial methods to outperform clinical methods, on average. However, actuarial methods are still not widely used in clinical practice, and there has been a call for the development of actuarial prediction methods for clinical practice. We argue that rule-based methods may be more useful than the linear main effect models usually employed in prediction studies, from a data and decision analytic as well as a practical perspective. In addition, decision rules derived with rule-based methods can be represented as fast and frugal trees, which, unlike main effects models, can be used in a sequential fashion, reducing the number of cues that have to be evaluated before making a prediction. We illustrate the usability of rule-based methods by applying RuleFit, an algorithm for deriving decision rules for classification and regression problems, to a dataset on prediction of the course of depressive and anxiety disorders from Penninx et al. (2011). The RuleFit algorithm provided a model consisting of 2 simple decision rules, requiring evaluation of only 2 to 4 cues. Predictive accuracy of the 2-rule model was very similar to that of a logistic regression model incorporating 20 predictor variables, originally applied to the dataset. In addition, the 2-rule model required, on average, evaluation of only 3 cues. Therefore, the RuleFit algorithm appears to be a promising method for creating decision tools that are less time consuming and easier to apply in psychological practice, and with accuracy comparable to traditional actuarial methods. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Decision-Making in Healthy Children, Adolescents and Adults Explained by the Use of Increasingly Complex Proportional Reasoning Rules

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huizenga, Hilde M.; Crone, Eveline A.; Jansen, Brenda J.

2007-01-01

In the standard Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), participants have to choose repeatedly from four options. Each option is characterized by a constant gain, and by the frequency and amount of a probabilistic loss. Crone and van der Molen (2004) reported that school-aged children and even adolescents show marked deficits in IGT performance. In this study,…

From moral to legal judgment: the influence of normative context in lawyers and other academics

PubMed Central

Spranger, Tade M.; Erk, Susanne; Walter, Henrik

2011-01-01

Various kinds of normative judgments are an integral part of everyday life. We extended the scrutiny of social cognitive neuroscience into the domain of legal decisions, investigating two groups, lawyers and other academics, during moral and legal decision-making. While we found activation of brain areas comprising the so-called ‘moral brain’ in both conditions, there was stronger activation in the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and middle temporal gyrus particularly when subjects made legal decisions, suggesting that these were made in respect to more explicit rules and demanded more complex semantic processing. Comparing both groups, our data show that behaviorally lawyers conceived themselves as emotionally less involved during normative decision-making in general. A group × condition interaction in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex suggests a modulation of normative decision-making by attention based on subjects’ normative expertise. PMID:20194515

From moral to legal judgment: the influence of normative context in lawyers and other academics.

PubMed

Schleim, Stephan; Spranger, Tade M; Erk, Susanne; Walter, Henrik

2011-01-01

Various kinds of normative judgments are an integral part of everyday life. We extended the scrutiny of social cognitive neuroscience into the domain of legal decisions, investigating two groups, lawyers and other academics, during moral and legal decision-making. While we found activation of brain areas comprising the so-called 'moral brain' in both conditions, there was stronger activation in the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and middle temporal gyrus particularly when subjects made legal decisions, suggesting that these were made in respect to more explicit rules and demanded more complex semantic processing. Comparing both groups, our data show that behaviorally lawyers conceived themselves as emotionally less involved during normative decision-making in general. A group × condition interaction in the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex suggests a modulation of normative decision-making by attention based on subjects' normative expertise.

Information systems: the key to evidence-based health practice.

PubMed Central

Rodrigues, R. J.

2000-01-01

Increasing prominence is being given to the use of best current evidence in clinical practice and health services and programme management decision-making. The role of information in evidence-based practice (EBP) is discussed, together with questions of how advanced information systems and technology (IS&T) can contribute to the establishment of a broader perspective for EBP. The author examines the development, validation and use of a variety of sources of evidence and knowledge that go beyond the well-established paradigm of research, clinical trials, and systematic literature review. Opportunities and challenges in the implementation and use of IS&T and knowledge management tools are examined for six application areas: reference databases, contextual data, clinical data repositories, administrative data repositories, decision support software, and Internet-based interactive health information and communication. Computerized and telecommunications applications that support EBP follow a hierarchy in which systems, tasks and complexity range from reference retrieval and the processing of relatively routine transactions, to complex "data mining" and rule-driven decision support systems. PMID:11143195

Parental Explicit Heuristics in Decision-making for Children With Life-threatening Illnesses

PubMed Central

Renjilian, Chris B.; Womer, James W.; Carroll, Karen W.; Kang, Tammy I.

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To identify and illustrate common explicit heuristics (decision-making aids or shortcuts expressed verbally as terse rules of thumb, aphorisms, maxims, or mantras and intended to convey a compelling truth or guiding principle) used by parents of children with life-threatening illnesses when confronting and making medical decisions. METHODS: Prospective cross-sectional observational study of 69 parents of 46 children who participated in the Decision-making in Pediatric Palliative Care Study between 2006 and 2008 at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. Parents were guided individually through a semistructured in-depth interview about their experiences and thoughts regarding making medical decisions on behalf of their ill children, and the transcribed interviews were qualitatively analyzed. RESULTS: All parents in our study employed explicit heuristics in interviews about decision-making for their children, with the number of identified explicit heuristics used by an individual parent ranging from tens to hundreds. The heuristics served 5 general functions: (1) to depict or facilitate understanding of a complex situation; (2) to clarify, organize, and focus pertinent information and values; (3) to serve as a decision-making compass; (4) to communicate with others about a complex topic; and (5) to justify a choice. CONCLUSIONS: Explicit heuristics played an important role in decision-making and communication about decision-making in our population of parents. Recognizing explicit heuristics in parent interactions and understanding their content and functions can aid clinicians in their efforts to partner with parents in the decision-making process. PMID:23319524

Parental explicit heuristics in decision-making for children with life-threatening illnesses.

PubMed

Renjilian, Chris B; Womer, James W; Carroll, Karen W; Kang, Tammy I; Feudtner, Chris

2013-02-01

To identify and illustrate common explicit heuristics (decision-making aids or shortcuts expressed verbally as terse rules of thumb, aphorisms, maxims, or mantras and intended to convey a compelling truth or guiding principle) used by parents of children with life-threatening illnesses when confronting and making medical decisions. Prospective cross-sectional observational study of 69 parents of 46 children who participated in the Decision-making in Pediatric Palliative Care Study between 2006 and 2008 at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. Parents were guided individually through a semistructured in-depth interview about their experiences and thoughts regarding making medical decisions on behalf of their ill children, and the transcribed interviews were qualitatively analyzed. All parents in our study employed explicit heuristics in interviews about decision-making for their children, with the number of identified explicit heuristics used by an individual parent ranging from tens to hundreds. The heuristics served 5 general functions: (1) to depict or facilitate understanding of a complex situation; (2) to clarify, organize, and focus pertinent information and values; (3) to serve as a decision-making compass; (4) to communicate with others about a complex topic; and (5) to justify a choice. Explicit heuristics played an important role in decision-making and communication about decision-making in our population of parents. Recognizing explicit heuristics in parent interactions and understanding their content and functions can aid clinicians in their efforts to partner with parents in the decision-making process.

The US Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit Ruling to Stay the CSAPR

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The United States Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit issued its ruling to stay the CSAPR pending judicial review. The court's decision is not a decision on the merits of the rule. EPA is ensuring the transition back to the Clean Air Interstate Rule.

FAF-Drugs2: free ADME/tox filtering tool to assist drug discovery and chemical biology projects.

PubMed

Lagorce, David; Sperandio, Olivier; Galons, Hervé; Miteva, Maria A; Villoutreix, Bruno O

2008-09-24

Drug discovery and chemical biology are exceedingly complex and demanding enterprises. In recent years there are been increasing awareness about the importance of predicting/optimizing the absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion and toxicity (ADMET) properties of small chemical compounds along the search process rather than at the final stages. Fast methods for evaluating ADMET properties of small molecules often involve applying a set of simple empirical rules (educated guesses) and as such, compound collections' property profiling can be performed in silico. Clearly, these rules cannot assess the full complexity of the human body but can provide valuable information and assist decision-making. This paper presents FAF-Drugs2, a free adaptable tool for ADMET filtering of electronic compound collections. FAF-Drugs2 is a command line utility program (e.g., written in Python) based on the open source chemistry toolkit OpenBabel, which performs various physicochemical calculations, identifies key functional groups, some toxic and unstable molecules/functional groups. In addition to filtered collections, FAF-Drugs2 can provide, via Gnuplot, several distribution diagrams of major physicochemical properties of the screened compound libraries. We have developed FAF-Drugs2 to facilitate compound collection preparation, prior to (or after) experimental screening or virtual screening computations. Users can select to apply various filtering thresholds and add rules as needed for a given project. As it stands, FAF-Drugs2 implements numerous filtering rules (23 physicochemical rules and 204 substructure searching rules) that can be easily tuned.

Is expected utility theory normative for medical decision making?

PubMed

Cohen, B J

1996-01-01

Expected utility theory is felt by its proponents to be a normative theory of decision making under uncertainty. The theory starts with some simple axioms that are held to be rules that any rational person would follow. It can be shown that if one adheres to these axioms, a numerical quantity, generally referred to as utility, can be assigned to each possible outcome, with the preferred course of action being that which has the highest expected utility. One of these axioms, the independence principle, is controversial, and is frequently violated in experimental situations. Proponents of the theory hold that these violations are irrational. The independence principle is simply an axiom dictating consistency among preferences, in that it dictates that a rational agent should hold a specified preference given another stated preference. When applied to preferences between lotteries, the independence principle can be demonstrated to be a rule that is followed only when preferences are formed in a particular way. The logic of expected utility theory is that this demonstration proves that preferences should be formed in this way. An alternative interpretation is that this demonstrates that the independence principle is not a valid general rule of consistency, but in particular, is a rule that must be followed if one is to consistently apply the decision rule "choose the lottery that has the highest expected utility." This decision rule must be justified on its own terms as a valid rule of rationality by demonstration that violation would lead to decisions that conflict with the decision maker's goals. This rule does not appear to be suitable for medical decisions because often these are one-time decisions in which expectation, a long-run property of a random variable, would not seem to be applicable. This is particularly true for those decisions involving a non-trivial risk of death.

Scheduling Software for Complex Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2006-01-01

Preparing a vehicle and its payload for a single launch is a complex process that involves thousands of operations. Because the equipment and facilities required to carry out these operations are extremely expensive and limited in number, optimal assignment and efficient use are critically important. Overlapping missions that compete for the same resources, ground rules, safety requirements, and the unique needs of processing vehicles and payloads destined for space impose numerous constraints that, when combined, require advanced scheduling. Traditional scheduling systems use simple algorithms and criteria when selecting activities and assigning resources and times to each activity. Schedules generated by these simple decision rules are, however, frequently far from optimal. To resolve mission-critical scheduling issues and predict possible problem areas, NASA historically relied upon expert human schedulers who used their judgment and experience to determine where things should happen, whether they will happen on time, and whether the requested resources are truly necessary.

46 CFR 201.159 - Decisions; contents and service.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 46 Shipping 8 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Decisions; contents and service. 201.159 Section 201.159 Shipping MARITIME ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION POLICY, PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Briefs, Requests for Findings, Decisions, Exceptions (Rule 16) § 201.159 Decisions; contents and service. All initial,...

Highly scalable and robust rule learner: performance evaluation and comparison.

PubMed

Kurgan, Lukasz A; Cios, Krzysztof J; Dick, Scott

2006-02-01

Business intelligence and bioinformatics applications increasingly require the mining of datasets consisting of millions of data points, or crafting real-time enterprise-level decision support systems for large corporations and drug companies. In all cases, there needs to be an underlying data mining system, and this mining system must be highly scalable. To this end, we describe a new rule learner called DataSqueezer. The learner belongs to the family of inductive supervised rule extraction algorithms. DataSqueezer is a simple, greedy, rule builder that generates a set of production rules from labeled input data. In spite of its relative simplicity, DataSqueezer is a very effective learner. The rules generated by the algorithm are compact, comprehensible, and have accuracy comparable to rules generated by other state-of-the-art rule extraction algorithms. The main advantages of DataSqueezer are very high efficiency, and missing data resistance. DataSqueezer exhibits log-linear asymptotic complexity with the number of training examples, and it is faster than other state-of-the-art rule learners. The learner is also robust to large quantities of missing data, as verified by extensive experimental comparison with the other learners. DataSqueezer is thus well suited to modern data mining and business intelligence tasks, which commonly involve huge datasets with a large fraction of missing data.

Judgment and decision making.

PubMed

Mellers, B A; Schwartz, A; Cooke, A D

1998-01-01

For many decades, research in judgment and decision making has examined behavioral violations of rational choice theory. In that framework, rationality is expressed as a single correct decision shared by experimenters and subjects that satisfies internal coherence within a set of preferences and beliefs. Outside of psychology, social scientists are now debating the need to modify rational choice theory with behavioral assumptions. Within psychology, researchers are debating assumptions about errors for many different definitions of rationality. Alternative frameworks are being proposed. These frameworks view decisions as more reasonable and adaptive that previously thought. For example, "rule following." Rule following, which occurs when a rule or norm is applied to a situation, often minimizes effort and provides satisfying solutions that are "good enough," though not necessarily the best. When rules are ambiguous, people look for reasons to guide their decisions. They may also let their emotions take charge. This chapter presents recent research on judgment and decision making from traditional and alternative frameworks.

Extraneous factors in judicial decisions

PubMed Central

Danziger, Shai; Levav, Jonathan; Avnaim-Pesso, Liora

2011-01-01

Are judicial rulings based solely on laws and facts? Legal formalism holds that judges apply legal reasons to the facts of a case in a rational, mechanical, and deliberative manner. In contrast, legal realists argue that the rational application of legal reasons does not sufficiently explain the decisions of judges and that psychological, political, and social factors influence judicial rulings. We test the common caricature of realism that justice is “what the judge ate for breakfast” in sequential parole decisions made by experienced judges. We record the judges’ two daily food breaks, which result in segmenting the deliberations of the day into three distinct “decision sessions.” We find that the percentage of favorable rulings drops gradually from ≈65% to nearly zero within each decision session and returns abruptly to ≈65% after a break. Our findings suggest that judicial rulings can be swayed by extraneous variables that should have no bearing on legal decisions. PMID:21482790

Acute knee injuries: use of decision rules for selective radiograph ordering.

PubMed

Tandeter, H B; Shvartzman, P; Stevens, Max A

1999-12-01

Family physicians often encounter patients with acute knee trauma. Radiographs of injured knees are commonly ordered, even though fractures are found in only 6 percent of such patients and emergency department physicians can usually discriminate clinically between fracture and nonfracture. Decision rules have been developed to reduce the unnecessary use of radiologic studies in patients with acute knee injury. The Ottawa knee rules and the Pittsburgh decision rules are the latest guidelines for the selective use of radiographs in knee trauma. Application of these rules may lead to a more efficient evaluation of knee injuries and a reduction in health costs without an increase in adverse outcomes.

Collective decision making and social interaction rules in mixed-species flocks of songbirds

PubMed Central

Farine, Damien R.; Aplin, Lucy M.; Garroway, Colin J.; Mann, Richard P.; Sheldon, Ben C.

2014-01-01

Associations in mixed-species foraging groups are common in animals, yet have rarely been explored in the context of collective behaviour. Despite many investigations into the social and ecological conditions under which individuals should form groups, we still know little about the specific behavioural rules that individuals adopt in these contexts, or whether these can be generalized to heterospecifics. Here, we studied collective behaviour in flocks in a community of five species of woodland passerine birds. We adopted an automated data collection protocol, involving visits by RFID-tagged birds to feeding stations equipped with antennae, over two winters, recording 91 576 feeding events by 1904 individuals. We demonstrated highly synchronized feeding behaviour within patches, with birds moving towards areas of the patch with the largest proportion of the flock. Using a model of collective decision making, we then explored the underlying decision rule birds may be using when foraging in mixed-species flocks. The model tested whether birds used a different decision rule for conspecifics and heterospecifics, and whether the rules used by individuals of different species varied. We found that species differed in their response to the distribution of conspecifics and heterospecifics across foraging patches. However, simulating decisions using the different rules, which reproduced our data well, suggested that the outcome of using different decision rules by each species resulted in qualitatively similar overall patterns of movement. It is possible that the decision rules each species uses may be adjusted to variation in mean species abundance in order for individuals to maintain the same overall flock-level response. This is likely to be important for maintaining coordinated behaviour across species, and to result in quick and adaptive flock responses to food resources that are patchily distributed in space and time. PMID:25214653

Utility of Decision Rules for Transcutaneous Bilirubin Measurements

PubMed Central

Burgos, Anthony E.; Flaherman, Valerie; Chung, Esther K.; Simpson, Elizabeth A.; Goyal, Neera K.; Von Kohorn, Isabelle; Dhepyasuwan, Niramol

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Transcutaneous bilirubin (TcB) meters are widely used for screening newborns for jaundice, with a total serum bilirubin (TSB) measurement indicated when the TcB value is classified as “positive” by using a decision rule. The goal of our study was to assess the clinical utility of 3 recommended TcB screening decision rules. METHODS: Paired TcB/TSB measurements were collected at 34 newborn nursery sites. At 27 sites (sample 1), newborns were routinely screened with a TcB measurement. For sample 2, sites that typically screen with TSB levels also obtained a TcB measurement for the study. Three decision rules to define a positive TcB measurement were evaluated: ≥75th percentile on the Bhutani nomogram, 70% of the phototherapy level, and within 3 mg/dL of the phototherapy threshold. The primary outcome was a TSB level at/above the phototherapy threshold. The rate of false-negative TcB screens and percentage of blood draws avoided were calculated for each decision rule. RESULTS: For sample 1, data were analyzed on 911 paired TcB-TSB measurements from a total of 8316 TcB measurements. False-negative rates were <10% with all decision rules; none identified all 31 newborns with a TSB level at/above the phototherapy threshold. The percentage of blood draws avoided ranged from 79.4% to 90.7%. In sample 2, each rule correctly identified all 8 newborns with TSB levels at/above the phototherapy threshold. CONCLUSIONS: Although all of the decision rules can be used effectively to screen newborns for jaundice, each will “miss” some infants with a TSB level at/above the phototherapy threshold. PMID:27244792

Belief Function Based Decision Fusion for Decentralized Target Classification in Wireless Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Zhang, Wenyu; Zhang, Zhenjiang

2015-01-01

Decision fusion in sensor networks enables sensors to improve classification accuracy while reducing the energy consumption and bandwidth demand for data transmission. In this paper, we focus on the decentralized multi-class classification fusion problem in wireless sensor networks (WSNs) and a new simple but effective decision fusion rule based on belief function theory is proposed. Unlike existing belief function based decision fusion schemes, the proposed approach is compatible with any type of classifier because the basic belief assignments (BBAs) of each sensor are constructed on the basis of the classifier’s training output confusion matrix and real-time observations. We also derive explicit global BBA in the fusion center under Dempster’s combinational rule, making the decision making operation in the fusion center greatly simplified. Also, sending the whole BBA structure to the fusion center is avoided. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed fusion rule has better performance in fusion accuracy compared with the naïve Bayes rule and weighted majority voting rule. PMID:26295399

Army Acquisition Management: A Quest for Excellence or a Tilting of Windmills

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-04-12

dollars, time, and decisions. And its results are so 48 artificial that they may relate to subsequent field data. I am a strong proponent of testing...An entire complex, nearly undecipherable artificial world has been constructed by the testers. No one but they understand the rules, the criteria...the Army HSCI House Select Committee on Intellegence IS information system IRM information resources management ISC Information Systems Command

A Taxonomy of Network Centric Warfare Architectures

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

mound structure emerges as a result of the termites following very simple rules, and exchanging very simple pheromone signals (Solé & Goodwin 2000...only fairly simple decisions.” For example, in far northern Australia, “magnetic termites ” build large termite mounds which are oriented north-south...and contain a complex ventilation system which controls temperature, humidity, and oxygen levels. But termite brains are too small to store a plan

Mapping Network Centric Operational Architectures to C2 and Software Architectures

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-01

Instead, the termite mound structure emerges as a result of the termites following very simple rules, and exchanging very simple pheromone signals...Each worker need make only fairly simple decisions.” For example, in far northern Australia, “magnetic termites ” build large termite mounds which are...oriented north-south and contain a complex ventilation system which controls temperature, humidity, and oxygen levels. But termite brains are too

16 CFR 3.51 - Initial decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Initial decision. 3.51 Section 3.51 Commercial Practices FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION ORGANIZATION, PROCEDURES AND RULES OF PRACTICE RULES OF PRACTICE FOR ADJUDICATIVE PROCEEDINGS Decision § 3.51 Initial decision. (a) When filed and when effective. The Administrative Law Judge shall file an...

16 CFR 3.52 - Appeal from initial decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Appeal from initial decision. 3.52 Section 3.52 Commercial Practices FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION ORGANIZATION, PROCEDURES AND RULES OF PRACTICE RULES OF PRACTICE FOR ADJUDICATIVE PROCEEDINGS Decision § 3.52 Appeal from initial decision. (a) Automatic review of cases in which the Commission sough...

49 CFR 1503.631 - Interlocutory appeals.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... Rules of Practice in TSA Civil Penalty Actions § 1503.631 Interlocutory appeals. (a) General. Unless otherwise provided in this subpart, a party may not appeal a ruling or decision of the ALJ to the TSA decision maker until the initial decision has been entered on the record. A decision or order of the TSA...

Is there a need for a clinical decision rule in blunt wrist trauma?

PubMed

van den Brand, Crispijn L; van Leerdam, Roderick H; van Ufford, Jet H M E Quarles; Rhemrev, Steven J

2013-11-01

Blunt wrist trauma is a very common injury in emergency medicine. However, in contrast to other extremity trauma, there is no clinical decision rule for radiography in patients with blunt wrist trauma. The purpose of this study is to describe current practice and to assess the need and feasibility for a clinical decision rule for radiography in patients with blunt wrist trauma. All patients with blunt wrist trauma who presented to our Emergency Department (ED) during a 6-month period were included in this study. Basic demographics were analysed and the radiography ratio was determined. The radiography results were compared for different demographic groups. Current practice and the need and feasibility for a decision rule were evaluated using Stiell's checklist for clinical decision rules. A total of 1019 patients with 1032 blunt wrist injuries presented at our ED in a period of 6 months. In 91.4% of patients, radiographs were taken. In 41.6% of those radiographed, a fracture was visible on plain radiography. Fractures were most common in the paediatric and senior age groups. However, even in the lower-risk groups we observed a fracture incidence of about 20%. There is no need for a clinical decision rule for radiography in patients with blunt wrist trauma because the fracture ratio is high. Neither does it seem feasible to develop a highly sensitive and efficient decision rule. Therefore, the authors recommend radiography in all patients with blunt wrist trauma presenting to the ED. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dypas: A dynamic payload scheduler for shuttle missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, Stephen

1988-01-01

Decision and analysis systems have had broad and very practical application areas in the human decision making process. These software systems range from the help sections in simple accounting packages, to the more complex computer configuration programs. Dypas is a decision and analysis system that aids prelaunch shutlle scheduling, and has added functionality to aid the rescheduling done in flight. Dypas is written in Common Lisp on a Symbolics Lisp machine. Dypas differs from other scheduling programs in that it can draw its knowledge from different rule bases and apply them to different rule interpretation schemes. The system has been coded with Flavors, an object oriented extension to Common Lisp on the Symbolics hardware. This allows implementation of objects (experiments) to better match the problem definition, and allows a more coherent solution space to be developed. Dypas was originally developed to test a programmer's aptitude toward Common Lisp and the Symbolics software environment. Since then the system has grown into a large software effort with several programmers and researchers thrown into the effort. Dypas is currently using two expert systems and three inferencing procedures to generate a many object schedule. The paper will review the abilities of Dypas and comment on its functionality.

Decision technology.

PubMed

Edwards, W; Fasolo, B

2001-01-01

This review is about decision technology-the rules and tools that help us make wiser decisions. First, we review the three rules that are at the heart of most traditional decision technology-multi-attribute utility, Bayes' theorem, and subjective expected utility maximization. Since the inception of decision research, these rules have prescribed how we should infer values and probabilities and how we should combine them to make better decisions. We suggest how to make best use of all three rules in a comprehensive 19-step model. The remainder of the review explores recently developed tools of decision technology. It examines the characteristics and problems of decision-facilitating sites on the World Wide Web. Such sites now provide anyone who can use a personal computer with access to very sophisticated decision-aiding tools structured mainly to facilitate consumer decision making. It seems likely that the Web will be the mode by means of which decision tools will be distributed to lay users. But methods for doing such apparently simple things as winnowing 3000 options down to a more reasonable number, like 10, contain traps for unwary decision technologists. The review briefly examines Bayes nets and influence diagrams-judgment and decision-making tools that are available as computer programs. It very briefly summarizes the state of the art of eliciting probabilities from experts. It concludes that decision tools will be as important in the 21st century as spreadsheets were in the 20th.

A study of some nine-element decision rules. [for multispectral recognition of remote sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, W.

1974-01-01

A nine-element rule is one that makes a classification decision for each pixel based on data from that pixel and its eight immediate neighbors. Three such rules, all fast and simple to use, are defined and tested. All performed substantially better on field interiors than the best one-point rule. Qualitative results indicate that fine detail and contradictory testimony tend to be overlooked by the rules.

Cognitive Tutoring based on Intelligent Decision Support in the PENTHA Instructional Design Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

dall'Acqua, Luisa

2010-06-01

The research finality of this paper is how to support Authors to develop rule driven—subject oriented, adaptable course content, meta-rules—representing the disciplinary epistemology, model of teaching, Learning Path structure, and assessment parameters—for intelligent Tutoring actions in a personalized, adaptive e-Learning environment. The focus is to instruct the student to be a decision manager for himself, able to recognize the elements of a problem, select the necessary information with the perspective of factual choices. In particular, our research intends to provide some fundamental guidelines for the definition of didactical rules and logical relations, that Authors should provide to a cognitive Tutoring system through the use of an Instructional Design method (PENTHA Model) which proposes an educational environment, able to: increase productivity and operability, create conditions for a cooperative dialogue, developing participatory research activities of knowledge, observations and discoveries, customizing the learning design in a complex and holistic vision of the learning / teaching processes.

The effects of normal aging on multiple aspects of financial decision-making

PubMed Central

Bangma, Dorien F.; Fuermaier, Anselm B. M.; Tucha, Lara; Tucha, Oliver; Koerts, Janneke

2017-01-01

Objectives Financial decision-making (FDM) is crucial for independent living. Due to cognitive decline that accompanies normal aging, older adults might have difficulties in some aspects of FDM. However, an improved knowledge, personal experience and affective decision-making, which are also related to normal aging, may lead to a stable or even improved age-related performance in some other aspects of FDM. Therefore, the present explorative study examines the effects of normal aging on multiple aspects of FDM. Methods One-hundred and eighty participants (range 18–87 years) were assessed with eight FDM tests and several standard neuropsychological tests. Age effects were evaluated using hierarchical multiple regression analyses. The validity of the prediction models was examined by internal validation (i.e. bootstrap resampling procedure) as well as external validation on another, independent, sample of participants (n = 124). Multiple regression and correlation analyses were applied to investigate the mediation effect of standard measures of cognition on the observed effects of age on FDM. Results On a relatively basic level of FDM (e.g., paying bills or using FDM styles) no significant effects of aging were found. However more complex FDM, such as making decisions in accordance with specific rules, becomes more difficult with advancing age. Furthermore, an older age was found to be related to a decreased sensitivity for impulsive buying. These results were confirmed by the internal and external validation analyses. Mediation effects of numeracy and planning were found to explain parts of the association between one aspect of FDM (i.e. Competence in decision rules) and age; however, these cognitive domains were not able to completely explain the relation between age and FDM. Conclusion Normal aging has a negative influence on a complex aspect of FDM, however, other aspects appear to be unaffected by normal aging or improve. PMID:28792973

Decision problems in management of construction projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szafranko, E.

2017-10-01

In a construction business, one must oftentimes make decisions during all stages of a building process, from planning a new construction project through its execution to the stage of using a ready structure. As a rule, the decision making process is made more complicated due to certain conditions specific for civil engineering. With such diverse decision situations, it is recommended to apply various decision making support methods. Both, literature and hands-on experience suggest several methods based on analytical and computational procedures, some less and some more complex. This article presents the methods which can be helpful in supporting decision making processes in the management of civil engineering projects. These are multi-criteria methods, such as MCE, AHP or indicator methods. Because the methods have different advantages and disadvantages, whereas decision situations have their own specific nature, a brief summary of the methods alongside some recommendations regarding their practical applications has been given at the end of the paper. The main aim of this article is to review the methods of decision support and their analysis for possible use in the construction industry.

Concurrent approach for evolving compact decision rule sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marmelstein, Robert E.; Hammack, Lonnie P.; Lamont, Gary B.

1999-02-01

The induction of decision rules from data is important to many disciplines, including artificial intelligence and pattern recognition. To improve the state of the art in this area, we introduced the genetic rule and classifier construction environment (GRaCCE). It was previously shown that GRaCCE consistently evolved decision rule sets from data, which were significantly more compact than those produced by other methods (such as decision tree algorithms). The primary disadvantage of GRaCCe, however, is its relatively poor run-time execution performance. In this paper, a concurrent version of the GRaCCE architecture is introduced, which improves the efficiency of the original algorithm. A prototype of the algorithm is tested on an in- house parallel processor configuration and the results are discussed.

Automatic rule generation for high-level vision

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rhee, Frank Chung-Hoon; Krishnapuram, Raghu

1992-01-01

A new fuzzy set based technique that was developed for decision making is discussed. It is a method to generate fuzzy decision rules automatically for image analysis. This paper proposes a method to generate rule-based approaches to solve problems such as autonomous navigation and image understanding automatically from training data. The proposed method is also capable of filtering out irrelevant features and criteria from the rules.

14 CFR 14.27 - Decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Decision. 14.27 Section 14.27 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES RULES IMPLEMENTING THE EQUAL ACCESS TO JUSTICE ACT OF 1980 Procedures for Considering Applications § 14.27 Decision...

14 CFR 14.27 - Decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Decision. 14.27 Section 14.27 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES RULES IMPLEMENTING THE EQUAL ACCESS TO JUSTICE ACT OF 1980 Procedures for Considering Applications § 14.27 Decision...

14 CFR 14.27 - Decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Decision. 14.27 Section 14.27 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES RULES IMPLEMENTING THE EQUAL ACCESS TO JUSTICE ACT OF 1980 Procedures for Considering Applications § 14.27 Decision...

14 CFR 14.27 - Decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Decision. 14.27 Section 14.27 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES RULES IMPLEMENTING THE EQUAL ACCESS TO JUSTICE ACT OF 1980 Procedures for Considering Applications § 14.27 Decision...

14 CFR 14.27 - Decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Decision. 14.27 Section 14.27 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES RULES IMPLEMENTING THE EQUAL ACCESS TO JUSTICE ACT OF 1980 Procedures for Considering Applications § 14.27 Decision...

14 CFR 16.227 - Standard of proof.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Standard of proof. 16.227 Section 16.227 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES RULES OF... hearing officer shall issue an initial decision or shall rule in a party's favor only if the decision or...

14 CFR 16.227 - Standard of proof.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Standard of proof. 16.227 Section 16.227 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES RULES OF... hearing officer shall issue an initial decision or shall rule in a party's favor only if the decision or...

14 CFR 16.227 - Standard of proof.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Standard of proof. 16.227 Section 16.227 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES RULES OF... hearing officer shall issue an initial decision or shall rule in a party's favor only if the decision or...

14 CFR 16.227 - Standard of proof.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Standard of proof. 16.227 Section 16.227 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROCEDURAL RULES RULES OF... hearing officer shall issue an initial decision or shall rule in a party's favor only if the decision or...

A simple threshold rule is sufficient to explain sophisticated collective decision-making.

PubMed

Robinson, Elva J H; Franks, Nigel R; Ellis, Samuel; Okuda, Saki; Marshall, James A R

2011-01-01

Decision-making animals can use slow-but-accurate strategies, such as making multiple comparisons, or opt for simpler, faster strategies to find a 'good enough' option. Social animals make collective decisions about many group behaviours including foraging and migration. The key to the collective choice lies with individual behaviour. We present a case study of a collective decision-making process (house-hunting ants, Temnothorax albipennis), in which a previously proposed decision strategy involved both quality-dependent hesitancy and direct comparisons of nests by scouts. An alternative possible decision strategy is that scouting ants use a very simple quality-dependent threshold rule to decide whether to recruit nest-mates to a new site or search for alternatives. We use analytical and simulation modelling to demonstrate that this simple rule is sufficient to explain empirical patterns from three studies of collective decision-making in ants, and can account parsimoniously for apparent comparison by individuals and apparent hesitancy (recruitment latency) effects, when available nests differ strongly in quality. This highlights the need to carefully design experiments to detect individual comparison. We present empirical data strongly suggesting that best-of-n comparison is not used by individual ants, although individual sequential comparisons are not ruled out. However, by using a simple threshold rule, decision-making groups are able to effectively compare options, without relying on any form of direct comparison of alternatives by individuals. This parsimonious mechanism could promote collective rationality in group decision-making.

Creating Shareable Clinical Decision Support Rules for a Pharmacogenomics Clinical Guideline Using Structured Knowledge Representation.

PubMed

Linan, Margaret K; Sottara, Davide; Freimuth, Robert R

2015-01-01

Pharmacogenomics (PGx) guidelines contain drug-gene relationships, therapeutic and clinical recommendations from which clinical decision support (CDS) rules can be extracted, rendered and then delivered through clinical decision support systems (CDSS) to provide clinicians with just-in-time information at the point of care. Several tools exist that can be used to generate CDS rules that are based on computer interpretable guidelines (CIG), but none have been previously applied to the PGx domain. We utilized the Unified Modeling Language (UML), the Health Level 7 virtual medical record (HL7 vMR) model, and standard terminologies to represent the semantics and decision logic derived from a PGx guideline, which were then mapped to the Health eDecisions (HeD) schema. The modeling and extraction processes developed here demonstrate how structured knowledge representations can be used to support the creation of shareable CDS rules from PGx guidelines.

Supporting Fisheries Management by Means of Complex Models: Can We Point out Isles of Robustness in a Sea of Uncertainty?

PubMed Central

Gasche, Loïc; Mahévas, Stéphanie; Marchal, Paul

2013-01-01

Ecosystems are usually complex, nonlinear and strongly influenced by poorly known environmental variables. Among these systems, marine ecosystems have high uncertainties: marine populations in general are known to exhibit large levels of natural variability and the intensity of fishing efforts can change rapidly. These uncertainties are a source of risks that threaten the sustainability of both fish populations and fishing fleets targeting them. Appropriate management measures have to be found in order to reduce these risks and decrease sensitivity to uncertainties. Methods have been developed within decision theory that aim at allowing decision making under severe uncertainty. One of these methods is the information-gap decision theory. The info-gap method has started to permeate ecological modelling, with recent applications to conservation. However, these practical applications have so far been restricted to simple models with analytical solutions. Here we implement a deterministic approach based on decision theory in a complex model of the Eastern English Channel. Using the ISIS-Fish modelling platform, we model populations of sole and plaice in this area. We test a wide range of values for ecosystem, fleet and management parameters. From these simulations, we identify management rules controlling fish harvesting that allow reaching management goals recommended by ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea) working groups while providing the highest robustness to uncertainties on ecosystem parameters. PMID:24204873

Supporting fisheries management by means of complex models: can we point out isles of robustness in a sea of uncertainty?

PubMed

Gasche, Loïc; Mahévas, Stéphanie; Marchal, Paul

2013-01-01

Ecosystems are usually complex, nonlinear and strongly influenced by poorly known environmental variables. Among these systems, marine ecosystems have high uncertainties: marine populations in general are known to exhibit large levels of natural variability and the intensity of fishing efforts can change rapidly. These uncertainties are a source of risks that threaten the sustainability of both fish populations and fishing fleets targeting them. Appropriate management measures have to be found in order to reduce these risks and decrease sensitivity to uncertainties. Methods have been developed within decision theory that aim at allowing decision making under severe uncertainty. One of these methods is the information-gap decision theory. The info-gap method has started to permeate ecological modelling, with recent applications to conservation. However, these practical applications have so far been restricted to simple models with analytical solutions. Here we implement a deterministic approach based on decision theory in a complex model of the Eastern English Channel. Using the ISIS-Fish modelling platform, we model populations of sole and plaice in this area. We test a wide range of values for ecosystem, fleet and management parameters. From these simulations, we identify management rules controlling fish harvesting that allow reaching management goals recommended by ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea) working groups while providing the highest robustness to uncertainties on ecosystem parameters.

A Conceptual Modeling Approach for OLAP Personalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrigós, Irene; Pardillo, Jesús; Mazón, Jose-Norberto; Trujillo, Juan

Data warehouses rely on multidimensional models in order to provide decision makers with appropriate structures to intuitively analyze data with OLAP technologies. However, data warehouses may be potentially large and multidimensional structures become increasingly complex to be understood at a glance. Even if a departmental data warehouse (also known as data mart) is used, these structures would be also too complex. As a consequence, acquiring the required information is more costly than expected and decision makers using OLAP tools may get frustrated. In this context, current approaches for data warehouse design are focused on deriving a unique OLAP schema for all analysts from their previously stated information requirements, which is not enough to lighten the complexity of the decision making process. To overcome this drawback, we argue for personalizing multidimensional models for OLAP technologies according to the continuously changing user characteristics, context, requirements and behaviour. In this paper, we present a novel approach to personalizing OLAP systems at the conceptual level based on the underlying multidimensional model of the data warehouse, a user model and a set of personalization rules. The great advantage of our approach is that a personalized OLAP schema is provided for each decision maker contributing to better satisfy their specific analysis needs. Finally, we show the applicability of our approach through a sample scenario based on our CASE tool for data warehouse development.

Inside the black box: starting to uncover the underlying decision rules used in one-by-one expert assessment of occupational exposure in case-control studies

PubMed Central

Wheeler, David C.; Burstyn, Igor; Vermeulen, Roel; Yu, Kai; Shortreed, Susan M.; Pronk, Anjoeka; Stewart, Patricia A.; Colt, Joanne S.; Baris, Dalsu; Karagas, Margaret R.; Schwenn, Molly; Johnson, Alison; Silverman, Debra T.; Friesen, Melissa C.

2014-01-01

Objectives Evaluating occupational exposures in population-based case-control studies often requires exposure assessors to review each study participants' reported occupational information job-by-job to derive exposure estimates. Although such assessments likely have underlying decision rules, they usually lack transparency, are time-consuming and have uncertain reliability and validity. We aimed to identify the underlying rules to enable documentation, review, and future use of these expert-based exposure decisions. Methods Classification and regression trees (CART, predictions from a single tree) and random forests (predictions from many trees) were used to identify the underlying rules from the questionnaire responses and an expert's exposure assignments for occupational diesel exhaust exposure for several metrics: binary exposure probability and ordinal exposure probability, intensity, and frequency. Data were split into training (n=10,488 jobs), testing (n=2,247), and validation (n=2,248) data sets. Results The CART and random forest models' predictions agreed with 92–94% of the expert's binary probability assignments. For ordinal probability, intensity, and frequency metrics, the two models extracted decision rules more successfully for unexposed and highly exposed jobs (86–90% and 57–85%, respectively) than for low or medium exposed jobs (7–71%). Conclusions CART and random forest models extracted decision rules and accurately predicted an expert's exposure decisions for the majority of jobs and identified questionnaire response patterns that would require further expert review if the rules were applied to other jobs in the same or different study. This approach makes the exposure assessment process in case-control studies more transparent and creates a mechanism to efficiently replicate exposure decisions in future studies. PMID:23155187

Determining rules for closing customer service centers: A public utility company's fuzzy decision

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dekorvin, Andre; Shipley, Margaret F.

1992-01-01

In the present work, we consider the general problem of knowledge acquisition under uncertainty. A commonly used method is to learn by examples. We observe how the expert solves specific cases and from this infer some rules by which the decision was made. Unique to this work is the fuzzy set representation of the conditions or attributes upon which the decision make may base his fuzzy set decision. From our examples, we infer certain and possible rules containing fuzzy terms. It should be stressed that the procedure determines how closely the expert follows the conditions under consideration in making his decision. We offer two examples pertaining to the possible decision to close a customer service center of a public utility company. In the first example, the decision maker does not follow too closely the conditions. In the second example, the conditions are much more relevant to the decision of the expert.

A symbolic/subsymbolic interface protocol for cognitive modeling

PubMed Central

Simen, Patrick; Polk, Thad

2009-01-01

Researchers studying complex cognition have grown increasingly interested in mapping symbolic cognitive architectures onto subsymbolic brain models. Such a mapping seems essential for understanding cognition under all but the most extreme viewpoints (namely, that cognition consists exclusively of digitally implemented rules; or instead, involves no rules whatsoever). Making this mapping reduces to specifying an interface between symbolic and subsymbolic descriptions of brain activity. To that end, we propose parameterization techniques for building cognitive models as programmable, structured, recurrent neural networks. Feedback strength in these models determines whether their components implement classically subsymbolic neural network functions (e.g., pattern recognition), or instead, logical rules and digital memory. These techniques support the implementation of limited production systems. Though inherently sequential and symbolic, these neural production systems can exploit principles of parallel, analog processing from decision-making models in psychology and neuroscience to explain the effects of brain damage on problem solving behavior. PMID:20711520

14 CFR 302.607 - Decision by administrative law judge.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... (AVIATION PROCEEDINGS) PROCEDURAL REGULATIONS RULES OF PRACTICE IN PROCEEDINGS Rules Applicable to... judge shall issue a decision recommending a disposition of a complaint or request for determination...

14 CFR 302.607 - Decision by administrative law judge.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... (AVIATION PROCEEDINGS) PROCEDURAL REGULATIONS RULES OF PRACTICE IN PROCEEDINGS Rules Applicable to... judge shall issue a decision recommending a disposition of a complaint or request for determination...

14 CFR 302.607 - Decision by administrative law judge.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... (AVIATION PROCEEDINGS) PROCEDURAL REGULATIONS RULES OF PRACTICE IN PROCEEDINGS Rules Applicable to... judge shall issue a decision recommending a disposition of a complaint or request for determination...

14 CFR 302.607 - Decision by administrative law judge.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... (AVIATION PROCEEDINGS) PROCEDURAL REGULATIONS RULES OF PRACTICE IN PROCEEDINGS Rules Applicable to... judge shall issue a decision recommending a disposition of a complaint or request for determination...

14 CFR 302.607 - Decision by administrative law judge.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... (AVIATION PROCEEDINGS) PROCEDURAL REGULATIONS RULES OF PRACTICE IN PROCEEDINGS Rules Applicable to... judge shall issue a decision recommending a disposition of a complaint or request for determination...

Evaluation of a multi-arm multi-stage Bayesian design for phase II drug selection trials - an example in hemato-oncology.

PubMed

Jacob, Louis; Uvarova, Maria; Boulet, Sandrine; Begaj, Inva; Chevret, Sylvie

2016-06-02

Multi-Arm Multi-Stage designs aim at comparing several new treatments to a common reference, in order to select or drop any treatment arm to move forward when such evidence already exists based on interim analyses. We redesigned a Bayesian adaptive design initially proposed for dose-finding, focusing our interest in the comparison of multiple experimental drugs to a control on a binary criterion measure. We redesigned a phase II clinical trial that randomly allocates patients across three (one control and two experimental) treatment arms to assess dropping decision rules. We were interested in dropping any arm due to futility, either based on historical control rate (first rule) or comparison across arms (second rule), and in stopping experimental arm due to its ability to reach a sufficient response rate (third rule), using the difference of response probabilities in Bayes binomial trials between the treated and control as a measure of treatment benefit. Simulations were then conducted to investigate the decision operating characteristics under a variety of plausible scenarios, as a function of the decision thresholds. Our findings suggest that one experimental treatment was less efficient than the control and could have been dropped from the trial based on a sample of approximately 20 instead of 40 patients. In the simulation study, stopping decisions were reached sooner for the first rule than for the second rule, with close mean estimates of response rates and small bias. According to the decision threshold, the mean sample size to detect the required 0.15 absolute benefit ranged from 63 to 70 (rule 3) with false negative rates of less than 2 % (rule 1) up to 6 % (rule 2). In contrast, detecting a 0.15 inferiority in response rates required a sample size ranging on average from 23 to 35 (rules 1 and 2, respectively) with a false positive rate ranging from 3.6 to 0.6 % (rule 3). Adaptive trial design is a good way to improve clinical trials. It allows removing ineffective drugs and reducing the trial sample size, while maintaining unbiased estimates. Decision thresholds can be set according to predefined fixed error decision rates. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01342692 .

Understanding Decision-Making, Communication Rules, and Communication Satisfaction as Culture: Implications for Organizational Effectiveness.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shockley-Zalabak, Pamela

A study of decision making processes and communication rules, in a corporate setting undergoing change as a result of organizational ineffectiveness, examined whether (1) decisions about formal communication reporting systems were linked to management assumptions about technical creativity/effectiveness, (2) assumptions about…

38 CFR 20.1401 - Rule 1401. Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Rule 1401. Definitions... Unmistakable Error § 20.1401 Rule 1401. Definitions. (a) Issue. Unless otherwise specified, the term “issue” in this subpart means a matter upon which the Board made a final decision (other than a decision under...

38 CFR 20.1401 - Rule 1401. Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Rule 1401. Definitions... Unmistakable Error § 20.1401 Rule 1401. Definitions. (a) Issue. Unless otherwise specified, the term “issue” in this subpart means a matter upon which the Board made a final decision (other than a decision under...

38 CFR 20.1401 - Rule 1401. Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Rule 1401. Definitions... Unmistakable Error § 20.1401 Rule 1401. Definitions. (a) Issue. Unless otherwise specified, the term “issue” in this subpart means a matter upon which the Board made a final decision (other than a decision under...

Fuzzy inference game approach to uncertainty in business decisions and market competitions.

PubMed

Oderanti, Festus Oluseyi

2013-01-01

The increasing challenges and complexity of business environments are making business decisions and operations more difficult for entrepreneurs to predict the outcomes of these processes. Therefore, we developed a decision support scheme that could be used and adapted to various business decision processes. These involve decisions that are made under uncertain situations such as business competition in the market or wage negotiation within a firm. The scheme uses game strategies and fuzzy inference concepts to effectively grasp the variables in these uncertain situations. The games are played between human and fuzzy players. The accuracy of the fuzzy rule base and the game strategies help to mitigate the adverse effects that a business may suffer from these uncertain factors. We also introduced learning which enables the fuzzy player to adapt over time. We tested this scheme in different scenarios and discover that it could be an invaluable tool in the hand of entrepreneurs that are operating under uncertain and competitive business environments.

Implementation of clinical decision rules in the emergency department.

PubMed

Stiell, Ian G; Bennett, Carol

2007-11-01

Clinical decision rules (CDRs) are tools designed to help clinicians make bedside diagnostic and therapeutic decisions. The development of a CDR involves three stages: derivation, validation, and implementation. Several criteria need to be considered when designing and evaluating the results of an implementation trial. In this article, the authors review the results of implementation studies evaluating the effect of four CDRs: the Ottawa Ankle Rules, the Ottawa Knee Rule, the Canadian C-Spine Rule, and the Canadian CT Head Rule. Four implementation studies demonstrated that the implementation of CDRs in the emergency department (ED) safely reduced the use of radiography for ankle, knee, and cervical spine injuries. However, a recent trial failed to demonstrate an impact on computed tomography imaging rates. Well-developed and validated CDRs can be successfully implemented into practice, efficiently standardizing ED care. However, further research is needed to identify barriers to implementation in order to achieve improved uptake in the ED.

On implementing clinical decision support: achieving scalability and maintainability by combining business rules and ontologies.

PubMed

Kashyap, Vipul; Morales, Alfredo; Hongsermeier, Tonya

2006-01-01

We present an approach and architecture for implementing scalable and maintainable clinical decision support at the Partners HealthCare System. The architecture integrates a business rules engine that executes declarative if-then rules stored in a rule-base referencing objects and methods in a business object model. The rules engine executes object methods by invoking services implemented on the clinical data repository. Specialized inferences that support classification of data and instances into classes are identified and an approach to implement these inferences using an OWL based ontology engine is presented. Alternative representations of these specialized inferences as if-then rules or OWL axioms are explored and their impact on the scalability and maintenance of the system is presented. Architectural alternatives for integration of clinical decision support functionality with the invoking application and the underlying clinical data repository; and their associated trade-offs are discussed and presented.

Clean Air Interstate Rule: Changes and Modeling in AEO2010 (released in AEO2010)

EIA Publications

2010-01-01

On December 23, 2008, the D.C. Circuit Court remanded but did not vacate the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR), overriding its previous decision on February 8, 2008, to remand and vacate CAIR. The December decision, which is reflected in Annual Energy Outlook 2010 (AEO) , allows CAIR to remain in effect, providing time for the Environmental Protection Agency to modify the rule in order to address objections raised by the Court in its earlier decision. A similar rule, referred to as the Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR), which was to set up a cap-and-trade system for reducing mercury emissions by approximately 70%, is not represented in the AEO2010 projections, because it was vacated by the D.C. Circuit Court in February 2008.

Simulation of operating rules and discretional decisions using a fuzzy rule-based system integrated into a water resources management model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macian-Sorribes, Hector; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2013-04-01

Water resources systems are operated, mostly, using a set of pre-defined rules not regarding, usually, to an optimal allocation in terms of water use or economic benefits, but to historical and institutional reasons. These operating policies are reproduced, commonly, as hedging rules, pack rules or zone-based operations, and simulation models can be used to test their performance under a wide range of hydrological and/or socio-economic hypothesis. Despite the high degree of acceptation and testing that these models have achieved, the actual operation of water resources systems hardly follows all the time the pre-defined rules with the consequent uncertainty on the system performance. Real-world reservoir operation is very complex, affected by input uncertainty (imprecision in forecast inflow, seepage and evaporation losses, etc.), filtered by the reservoir operator's experience and natural risk-aversion, while considering the different physical and legal/institutional constraints in order to meet the different demands and system requirements. The aim of this work is to expose a fuzzy logic approach to derive and assess the historical operation of a system. This framework uses a fuzzy rule-based system to reproduce pre-defined rules and also to match as close as possible the actual decisions made by managers. After built up, the fuzzy rule-based system can be integrated in a water resources management model, making possible to assess the system performance at the basin scale. The case study of the Mijares basin (eastern Spain) is used to illustrate the method. A reservoir operating curve regulates the two main reservoir releases (operated in a conjunctive way) with the purpose of guaranteeing a high realiability of supply to the traditional irrigation districts with higher priority (more senior demands that funded the reservoir construction). A fuzzy rule-based system has been created to reproduce the operating curve's performance, defining the system state (total water stored in the reservoirs) and the month of the year as inputs; and the demand deliveries as outputs. The developed simulation management model integrates the fuzzy-ruled system of the operation of the two main reservoirs of the basin with the corresponding mass balance equations, the physical or boundary conditions and the water allocation rules among the competing demands. Historical information on inflow time series is used as inputs to the model simulation, being trained and validated using historical information on reservoir storage level and flow in several streams of the Mijares river. This methodology provides a more flexible and close to real policies approach. The model is easy to develop and to understand due to its rule-based structure, which mimics the human way of thinking. This can improve cooperation and negotiation between managers, decision-makers and stakeholders. The approach can be also applied to analyze the historical operation of the reservoir (what we have called a reservoir operation "audit").

Decision Fusion with Channel Errors in Distributed Decode-Then-Fuse Sensor Networks

PubMed Central

Yan, Yongsheng; Wang, Haiyan; Shen, Xiaohong; Zhong, Xionghu

2015-01-01

Decision fusion for distributed detection in sensor networks under non-ideal channels is investigated in this paper. Usually, the local decisions are transmitted to the fusion center (FC) and decoded, and a fusion rule is then applied to achieve a global decision. We propose an optimal likelihood ratio test (LRT)-based fusion rule to take the uncertainty of the decoded binary data due to modulation, reception mode and communication channel into account. The average bit error rate (BER) is employed to characterize such an uncertainty. Further, the detection performance is analyzed under both non-identical and identical local detection performance indices. In addition, the performance of the proposed method is compared with the existing optimal and suboptimal LRT fusion rules. The results show that the proposed fusion rule is more robust compared to these existing ones. PMID:26251908

A clinical decision rule to prioritize polysomnography in patients with suspected sleep apnea.

PubMed

Rodsutti, Julvit; Hensley, Michael; Thakkinstian, Ammarin; D'Este, Catherine; Attia, John

2004-06-15

To derive and validate a clinical decision rule that can help to prioritize patients who are on waiting lists for polysomnography, Prospective data collection on consecutive patients referred to a sleep center. The Newcastle Sleep Disorders Centre, University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia. Consecutive adult patients who had been scheduled for initial diagnostic polysomnography. Eight hundred and thirty-seven patients were used for derivation of the decision rule. An apnea-hypopnoea index of at least 5 was used as the cutoff point to diagnose sleep apnea. Fifteen clinical features were included in the analyses using logistic regression to construct a model from the derivation data set. Only 5 variables--age, sex, body mass index, snoring, and stopping breathing during sleep--were significantly associated with sleep apnea. A scoring scheme based on regression coefficients was developed, and the total score was trichotomized into low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups with prevalence of sleep apnea of 8%, 51%, and 82%, respectively. Color-coded tables were developed for ease of use. The clinical decision rule was validated on a separate set of 243 patients. Receiver operating characteristic analysis confirmed that the decision rule performed well, with the area under the curve being similar for both the derivation and validation sets: 0.81 and 0.79, P =.612. We conclude that this decision rule was able to accurately classify the risk of sleep apnea and will be useful for prioritizing patients with suspected sleep apnea who are on waiting lists for polysomnography.

18 CFR 385.2201 - Rules governing off-the-record communications (Rule 2201).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

...) Relevant to the merits means capable of affecting the outcome of a proceeding, or of influencing a decision, or providing an opportunity to influence a decision, on any issue in the proceeding, but does not... Commission in a manner that permits fully informed decision making by the Commission while ensuring the...

18 CFR 385.704 - Rights of participants before initial decision (Rule 704).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Rights of participants... PROCEDURE Decisions § 385.704 Rights of participants before initial decision (Rule 704). After testimony is... good cause, deny opportunity for reply or limit the issues which may be addressed in any reply. ...

17 CFR 201.410 - Appeal of initial decisions by hearing officers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... COMMISSION RULES OF PRACTICE Rules of Practice Appeal to the Commission and Commission Review § 201.410 Appeal of initial decisions by hearing officers. (a) Petition for review; when available. In any... would have been entitled to judicial review of the decision entered therein if the Commission itself had...

Collective intelligence meets medical decision-making: the collective outperforms the best radiologist.

PubMed

Wolf, Max; Krause, Jens; Carney, Patricia A; Bogart, Andy; Kurvers, Ralf H J M

2015-01-01

While collective intelligence (CI) is a powerful approach to increase decision accuracy, few attempts have been made to unlock its potential in medical decision-making. Here we investigated the performance of three well-known collective intelligence rules ("majority", "quorum", and "weighted quorum") when applied to mammography screening. For any particular mammogram, these rules aggregate the independent assessments of multiple radiologists into a single decision (recall the patient for additional workup or not). We found that, compared to single radiologists, any of these CI-rules both increases true positives (i.e., recalls of patients with cancer) and decreases false positives (i.e., recalls of patients without cancer), thereby overcoming one of the fundamental limitations to decision accuracy that individual radiologists face. Importantly, we find that all CI-rules systematically outperform even the best-performing individual radiologist in the respective group. Our findings demonstrate that CI can be employed to improve mammography screening; similarly, CI may have the potential to improve medical decision-making in a much wider range of contexts, including many areas of diagnostic imaging and, more generally, diagnostic decisions that are based on the subjective interpretation of evidence.

A predictive model of nuclear power plant crew decision-making and performance in a dynamic simulation environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coyne, Kevin Anthony

The safe operation of complex systems such as nuclear power plants requires close coordination between the human operators and plant systems. In order to maintain an adequate level of safety following an accident or other off-normal event, the operators often are called upon to perform complex tasks during dynamic situations with incomplete information. The safety of such complex systems can be greatly improved if the conditions that could lead operators to make poor decisions and commit erroneous actions during these situations can be predicted and mitigated. The primary goal of this research project was the development and validation of a cognitive model capable of simulating nuclear plant operator decision-making during accident conditions. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment methods can improve the prediction of human error events by providing rich contextual information and an explicit consideration of feedback arising from man-machine interactions. The Accident Dynamics Simulator paired with the Information, Decision, and Action in a Crew context cognitive model (ADS-IDAC) shows promise for predicting situational contexts that might lead to human error events, particularly knowledge driven errors of commission. ADS-IDAC generates a discrete dynamic event tree (DDET) by applying simple branching rules that reflect variations in crew responses to plant events and system status changes. Branches can be generated to simulate slow or fast procedure execution speed, skipping of procedure steps, reliance on memorized information, activation of mental beliefs, variations in control inputs, and equipment failures. Complex operator mental models of plant behavior that guide crew actions can be represented within the ADS-IDAC mental belief framework and used to identify situational contexts that may lead to human error events. This research increased the capabilities of ADS-IDAC in several key areas. The ADS-IDAC computer code was improved to support additional branching events and provide a better representation of the IDAC cognitive model. An operator decision-making engine capable of responding to dynamic changes in situational context was implemented. The IDAC human performance model was fully integrated with a detailed nuclear plant model in order to realistically simulate plant accident scenarios. Finally, the improved ADS-IDAC model was calibrated, validated, and updated using actual nuclear plant crew performance data. This research led to the following general conclusions: (1) A relatively small number of branching rules are capable of efficiently capturing a wide spectrum of crew-to-crew variabilities. (2) Compared to traditional static risk assessment methods, ADS-IDAC can provide a more realistic and integrated assessment of human error events by directly determining the effect of operator behaviors on plant thermal hydraulic parameters. (3) The ADS-IDAC approach provides an efficient framework for capturing actual operator performance data such as timing of operator actions, mental models, and decision-making activities.

Evolving optimised decision rules for intrusion detection using particle swarm paradigm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sivatha Sindhu, Siva S.; Geetha, S.; Kannan, A.

2012-12-01

The aim of this article is to construct a practical intrusion detection system (IDS) that properly analyses the statistics of network traffic pattern and classify them as normal or anomalous class. The objective of this article is to prove that the choice of effective network traffic features and a proficient machine-learning paradigm enhances the detection accuracy of IDS. In this article, a rule-based approach with a family of six decision tree classifiers, namely Decision Stump, C4.5, Naive Baye's Tree, Random Forest, Random Tree and Representative Tree model to perform the detection of anomalous network pattern is introduced. In particular, the proposed swarm optimisation-based approach selects instances that compose training set and optimised decision tree operate over this trained set producing classification rules with improved coverage, classification capability and generalisation ability. Experiment with the Knowledge Discovery and Data mining (KDD) data set which have information on traffic pattern, during normal and intrusive behaviour shows that the proposed algorithm produces optimised decision rules and outperforms other machine-learning algorithm.

Distributed decision support for the 21st century mission space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McQuay, William K.

2002-07-01

The past decade has produced significant changes in the conduct of military operations: increased humanitarian missions, asymmetric warfare, the reliance on coalitions and allies, stringent rules of engagement, concern about casualties, and the need for sustained air operations. Future mission commanders will need to assimilate a tremendous amount of information, make quick-response decisions, and quantify the effects of those decisions in the face of uncertainty. Integral to this process is creating situational assessment-understanding the mission space, simulation to analyze alternative futures, current capabilities, planning assessments, course-of-action assessments, and a common operational picture-keeping everyone on the same sheet of paper. Decision support tools in a distributed collaborative environment offer the capability of decomposing these complex multitask processes and distributing them over a dynamic set of execution assets. Decision support technologies can semi-automate activities, such as planning an operation, that have a reasonably well-defined process and provide machine-level interfaces to refine the myriad of information that is not currently fused. The marriage of information and simulation technologies provides the mission commander with a collaborative virtual environment for planning and decision support.

Neuromodulation of Nestmate Recognition Decisions by Pavement Ants.

PubMed

Bubak, Andrew N; Yaeger, Jazmine D W; Renner, Kenneth J; Swallow, John G; Greene, Michael J

2016-01-01

Ant colonies are distributed systems that are regulated in a non-hierarchical manner. Without a central authority, individuals inform their decisions by comparing information in local cues to a set of inherent behavioral rules. Individual behavioral decisions collectively change colony behavior and lead to self-organization capable of solving complex problems such as the decision to engage in aggressive societal conflicts with neighbors. Despite the relevance to colony fitness, the mechanisms that drive individual decisions leading to cooperative behavior are not well understood. Here we show how sensory information, both tactile and chemical, and social context-isolation, nestmate interaction, or fighting non-nestmates-affects brain monoamine levels in pavement ants (Tetramorium caespitum). Our results provide evidence that changes in octopamine and serotonin in the brains of individuals are sufficient to alter the decision by pavement ants to be aggressive towards non-nestmate ants whereas increased brain levels of dopamine correlate to physical fighting. We propose a model in which the changes in brain states of many workers collectively lead to the self-organization of societal aggression between neighboring colonies of pavement ants.

Neuromodulation of Nestmate Recognition Decisions by Pavement Ants

PubMed Central

Bubak, Andrew N.; Yaeger, Jazmine D. W.; Renner, Kenneth J.; Swallow, John G.; Greene, Michael J.

2016-01-01

Ant colonies are distributed systems that are regulated in a non-hierarchical manner. Without a central authority, individuals inform their decisions by comparing information in local cues to a set of inherent behavioral rules. Individual behavioral decisions collectively change colony behavior and lead to self-organization capable of solving complex problems such as the decision to engage in aggressive societal conflicts with neighbors. Despite the relevance to colony fitness, the mechanisms that drive individual decisions leading to cooperative behavior are not well understood. Here we show how sensory information, both tactile and chemical, and social context—isolation, nestmate interaction, or fighting non-nestmates—affects brain monoamine levels in pavement ants (Tetramorium caespitum). Our results provide evidence that changes in octopamine and serotonin in the brains of individuals are sufficient to alter the decision by pavement ants to be aggressive towards non-nestmate ants whereas increased brain levels of dopamine correlate to physical fighting. We propose a model in which the changes in brain states of many workers collectively lead to the self-organization of societal aggression between neighboring colonies of pavement ants. PMID:27846261

Goal-Directed Decision Making with Spiking Neurons.

PubMed

Friedrich, Johannes; Lengyel, Máté

2016-02-03

Behavioral and neuroscientific data on reward-based decision making point to a fundamental distinction between habitual and goal-directed action selection. The formation of habits, which requires simple updating of cached values, has been studied in great detail, and the reward prediction error theory of dopamine function has enjoyed prominent success in accounting for its neural bases. In contrast, the neural circuit mechanisms of goal-directed decision making, requiring extended iterative computations to estimate values online, are still unknown. Here we present a spiking neural network that provably solves the difficult online value estimation problem underlying goal-directed decision making in a near-optimal way and reproduces behavioral as well as neurophysiological experimental data on tasks ranging from simple binary choice to sequential decision making. Our model uses local plasticity rules to learn the synaptic weights of a simple neural network to achieve optimal performance and solves one-step decision-making tasks, commonly considered in neuroeconomics, as well as more challenging sequential decision-making tasks within 1 s. These decision times, and their parametric dependence on task parameters, as well as the final choice probabilities match behavioral data, whereas the evolution of neural activities in the network closely mimics neural responses recorded in frontal cortices during the execution of such tasks. Our theory provides a principled framework to understand the neural underpinning of goal-directed decision making and makes novel predictions for sequential decision-making tasks with multiple rewards. Goal-directed actions requiring prospective planning pervade decision making, but their circuit-level mechanisms remain elusive. We show how a model circuit of biologically realistic spiking neurons can solve this computationally challenging problem in a novel way. The synaptic weights of our network can be learned using local plasticity rules such that its dynamics devise a near-optimal plan of action. By systematically comparing our model results to experimental data, we show that it reproduces behavioral decision times and choice probabilities as well as neural responses in a rich set of tasks. Our results thus offer the first biologically realistic account for complex goal-directed decision making at a computational, algorithmic, and implementational level. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/361529-18$15.00/0.

Goal-Directed Decision Making with Spiking Neurons

PubMed Central

Lengyel, Máté

2016-01-01

Behavioral and neuroscientific data on reward-based decision making point to a fundamental distinction between habitual and goal-directed action selection. The formation of habits, which requires simple updating of cached values, has been studied in great detail, and the reward prediction error theory of dopamine function has enjoyed prominent success in accounting for its neural bases. In contrast, the neural circuit mechanisms of goal-directed decision making, requiring extended iterative computations to estimate values online, are still unknown. Here we present a spiking neural network that provably solves the difficult online value estimation problem underlying goal-directed decision making in a near-optimal way and reproduces behavioral as well as neurophysiological experimental data on tasks ranging from simple binary choice to sequential decision making. Our model uses local plasticity rules to learn the synaptic weights of a simple neural network to achieve optimal performance and solves one-step decision-making tasks, commonly considered in neuroeconomics, as well as more challenging sequential decision-making tasks within 1 s. These decision times, and their parametric dependence on task parameters, as well as the final choice probabilities match behavioral data, whereas the evolution of neural activities in the network closely mimics neural responses recorded in frontal cortices during the execution of such tasks. Our theory provides a principled framework to understand the neural underpinning of goal-directed decision making and makes novel predictions for sequential decision-making tasks with multiple rewards. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Goal-directed actions requiring prospective planning pervade decision making, but their circuit-level mechanisms remain elusive. We show how a model circuit of biologically realistic spiking neurons can solve this computationally challenging problem in a novel way. The synaptic weights of our network can be learned using local plasticity rules such that its dynamics devise a near-optimal plan of action. By systematically comparing our model results to experimental data, we show that it reproduces behavioral decision times and choice probabilities as well as neural responses in a rich set of tasks. Our results thus offer the first biologically realistic account for complex goal-directed decision making at a computational, algorithmic, and implementational level. PMID:26843636

Rule Extracting based on MCG with its Application in Helicopter Power Train Fault Diagnosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, M.; Hu, N. Q.; Qin, G. J.

2011-07-01

In order to extract decision rules for fault diagnosis from incomplete historical test records for knowledge-based damage assessment of helicopter power train structure. A method that can directly extract the optimal generalized decision rules from incomplete information based on GrC was proposed. Based on semantic analysis of unknown attribute value, the granule was extended to handle incomplete information. Maximum characteristic granule (MCG) was defined based on characteristic relation, and MCG was used to construct the resolution function matrix. The optimal general decision rule was introduced, with the basic equivalent forms of propositional logic, the rules were extracted and reduction from incomplete information table. Combined with a fault diagnosis example of power train, the application approach of the method was present, and the validity of this method in knowledge acquisition was proved.

38 CFR 20.1106 - Rule 1106. Claim for death benefits by survivor-prior unfavorable decisions during veteran's...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... of 38 U.S.C. 6104 and 6105, issues involved in a survivor's claim for death benefits will be decided... death benefits by survivor-prior unfavorable decisions during veteran's lifetime. 20.1106 Section 20... VETERANS' APPEALS: RULES OF PRACTICE Finality § 20.1106 Rule 1106. Claim for death benefits by survivor...

48 CFR 6101.26 - Reconsideration; amendment of decisions; new hearings [Rule 26].

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... in 6101.27(a) (Rule 27(a)) and the reasons established by the rules of common law or equity... for granting a new hearing. Upon granting a motion for a new hearing, the Board will take additional testimony and, if a decision has been issued, either amend its findings of fact and conclusions or law or...

77 FR 65137 - Consideration of Environmental Impacts of Temporary Storage of Spent Fuel After Cessation of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-25

... provide input to decision-making for updating the Waste Confidence Decision and Rule and would not involve... Commission's tentative planning and decision-making schedule; g. Identify any cooperating agencies and, as... #0;notices is to give interested persons an opportunity to participate in #0;the rule making prior to...

Order of Verdict Consideration and Decision Rule Effects on Mock Jury Decision Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olaye, Imafidon M.

A study investigated the effects of order verdict consideration and decision rule on jury verdicts. After reading the summary of an actual trial, 240 mock jurors drawn from undergraduate communications classes were randomly assigned to six-member juries. Jury assignments were made under two verdict orders (ascending and descending order of…

Logical-Rule Models of Classification Response Times: A Synthesis of Mental-Architecture, Random-Walk, and Decision-Bound Approaches

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fific, Mario; Little, Daniel R.; Nosofsky, Robert M.

2010-01-01

We formalize and provide tests of a set of logical-rule models for predicting perceptual classification response times (RTs) and choice probabilities. The models are developed by synthesizing mental-architecture, random-walk, and decision-bound approaches. According to the models, people make independent decisions about the locations of stimuli…

78 FR 19424 - Service Rules for the 698-746, 747-762 and 777-792 MHz Bands; Revision of the Commission's Rules...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-01

... Reconsideration (MO&O) denies or dismisses petitions seeking reconsideration of certain decisions made by the Commission in the 700 MHz Second Report and Order, relating to the 698-806 MHz Band, including decisions..., public safety narrowband relocation procedures, and the decisions not to impose wholesale requirements...

From assessment to improvement of elderly care in general practice using decision support to increase adherence to ACOVE quality indicators: study protocol for randomized control trial

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Previous efforts such as Assessing Care of Vulnerable Elders (ACOVE) provide quality indicators for assessing the care of elderly patients, but thus far little has been done to leverage this knowledge to improve care for these patients. We describe a clinical decision support system to improve general practitioner (GP) adherence to ACOVE quality indicators and a protocol for investigating impact on GPs’ adherence to the rules. Design We propose two randomized controlled trials among a group of Dutch GP teams on adherence to ACOVE quality indicators. In both trials a clinical decision support system provides un-intrusive feedback appearing as a color-coded, dynamically updated, list of items needing attention. The first trial pertains to real-time automatically verifiable rules. The second trial concerns non-automatically verifiable rules (adherence cannot be established by the clinical decision support system itself, but the GPs report whether they will adhere to the rules). In both trials we will randomize teams of GPs caring for the same patients into two groups, A and B. For the automatically verifiable rules, group A GPs receive support only for a specific inter-related subset of rules, and group B GPs receive support only for the remainder of the rules. For non-automatically verifiable rules, group A GPs receive feedback framed as actions with positive consequences, and group B GPs receive feedback framed as inaction with negative consequences. GPs indicate whether they adhere to non-automatically verifiable rules. In both trials, the main outcome measure is mean adherence, automatically derived or self-reported, to the rules. Discussion We relied on active end-user involvement in selecting the rules to support, and on a model for providing feedback displayed as color-coded real-time messages concerning the patient visiting the GP at that time, without interrupting the GP’s workflow with pop-ups. While these aspects are believed to increase clinical decision support system acceptance and its impact on adherence to the selected clinical rules, systems with these properties have not yet been evaluated. Trial registration Controlled Trials NTR3566 PMID:24642339

Prefrontal and parietal activity is modulated by the rule complexity of inductive reasoning and can be predicted by a cognitive model.

PubMed

Jia, Xiuqin; Liang, Peipeng; Shi, Lin; Wang, Defeng; Li, Kuncheng

2015-01-01

In neuroimaging studies, increased task complexity can lead to increased activation in task-specific regions or to activation of additional regions. How the brain adapts to increased rule complexity during inductive reasoning remains unclear. In the current study, three types of problems were created: simple rule induction (i.e., SI, with rule complexity of 1), complex rule induction (i.e., CI, with rule complexity of 2), and perceptual control. Our findings revealed that increased activations accompany increased rule complexity in the right dorsal lateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) and medial posterior parietal cortex (precuneus). A cognitive model predicted both the behavioral and brain imaging results. The current findings suggest that neural activity in frontal and parietal regions is modulated by rule complexity, which may shed light on the neural mechanisms of inductive reasoning. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Toward the modelling of safety violations in healthcare systems.

PubMed

Catchpole, Ken

2013-09-01

When frontline staff do not adhere to policies, protocols, or checklists, managers often regard these violations as indicating poor practice or even negligence. More often than not, however, these policy and protocol violations reflect the efforts of well intentioned professionals to carry out their work efficiently in the face of systems poorly designed to meet the diverse demands of patient care. Thus, non-compliance with institutional policies and protocols often signals a systems problem, rather than a people problem, and can be influenced among other things by training, competing goals, context, process, location, case complexity, individual beliefs, the direct or indirect influence of others, job pressure, flexibility, rule definition, and clinician-centred design. Three candidates are considered for developing a model of safety behaviour and decision making. The dynamic safety model helps to understand the relationship between systems designs and human performance. The theory of planned behaviour suggests that intention is a function of attitudes, social norms and perceived behavioural control. The naturalistic decision making paradigm posits that decisions are based on a wider view of multiple patients, expertise, systems complexity, behavioural intention, individual beliefs and current understanding of the system. Understanding and predicting behavioural safety decisions could help us to encourage compliance to current processes and to design better interventions.

Dose Transition Pathways: The Missing Link Between Complex Dose-Finding Designs and Simple Decision-Making.

PubMed

Yap, Christina; Billingham, Lucinda J; Cheung, Ying Kuen; Craddock, Charlie; O'Quigley, John

2017-12-15

The ever-increasing pace of development of novel therapies mandates efficient methodologies for assessment of their tolerability and activity. Evidence increasingly support the merits of model-based dose-finding designs in identifying the recommended phase II dose compared with conventional rule-based designs such as the 3 + 3 but despite this, their use remains limited. Here, we propose a useful tool, dose transition pathways (DTP), which helps overcome several commonly faced practical and methodologic challenges in the implementation of model-based designs. DTP projects in advance the doses recommended by a model-based design for subsequent patients (stay, escalate, de-escalate, or stop early), using all the accumulated information. After specifying a model with favorable statistical properties, we utilize the DTP to fine-tune the model to tailor it to the trial's specific requirements that reflect important clinical judgments. In particular, it can help to determine how stringent the stopping rules should be if the investigated therapy is too toxic. Its use to design and implement a modified continual reassessment method is illustrated in an acute myeloid leukemia trial. DTP removes the fears of model-based designs as unknown, complex systems and can serve as a handbook, guiding decision-making for each dose update. In the illustrated trial, the seamless, clear transition for each dose recommendation aided the investigators' understanding of the design and facilitated decision-making to enable finer calibration of a tailored model. We advocate the use of the DTP as an integral procedure in the co-development and successful implementation of practical model-based designs by statisticians and investigators. Clin Cancer Res; 23(24); 7440-7. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

Expert system training and control based on the fuzzy relation matrix

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ren, Jie; Sheridan, T. B.

1991-01-01

Fuzzy knowledge, that for which the terms of reference are not crisp but overlapped, seems to characterize human expertise. This can be shown from the fact that an experienced human operator can control some complex plants better than a computer can. Proposed here is fuzzy theory to build a fuzzy expert relation matrix (FERM) from given rules or/and examples, either in linguistic terms or in numerical values to mimic human processes of perception and decision making. The knowledge base is codified in terms of many implicit fuzzy rules. Fuzzy knowledge thus codified may also be compared with explicit rules specified by a human expert. It can also provide a basis for modeling the human operator and allow comparison of what a human operator says to what he does in practice. Two experiments were performed. In the first, control of liquid in a tank, demonstrates how the FERM knowledge base is elicited and trained. The other shows how to use a FERM, build up from linguistic rules, and to control an inverted pendulum without a dynamic model.

R package PRIMsrc: Bump Hunting by Patient Rule Induction Method for Survival, Regression and Classification

PubMed Central

Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Choe, Michael; LeBlanc, Michael; Rao, J. Sunil

2015-01-01

PRIMsrc is a novel implementation of a non-parametric bump hunting procedure, based on the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM), offering a unified treatment of outcome variables, including censored time-to-event (Survival), continuous (Regression) and discrete (Classification) responses. To fit the model, it uses a recursive peeling procedure with specific peeling criteria and stopping rules depending on the response. To validate the model, it provides an objective function based on prediction-error or other specific statistic, as well as two alternative cross-validation techniques, adapted to the task of decision-rule making and estimation in the three types of settings. PRIMsrc comes as an open source R package, including at this point: (i) a main function for fitting a Survival Bump Hunting model with various options allowing cross-validated model selection to control model size (#covariates) and model complexity (#peeling steps) and generation of cross-validated end-point estimates; (ii) parallel computing; (iii) various S3-generic and specific plotting functions for data visualization, diagnostic, prediction, summary and display of results. It is available on CRAN and GitHub. PMID:26798326

Effect of clinical decision rules, patient cost and malpractice information on clinician brain CT image ordering: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Gimbel, Ronald W; Pirrallo, Ronald G; Lowe, Steven C; Wright, David W; Zhang, Lu; Woo, Min-Jae; Fontelo, Paul; Liu, Fang; Connor, Zachary

2018-03-12

The frequency of head computed tomography (CT) imaging for mild head trauma patients has raised safety and cost concerns. Validated clinical decision rules exist in the published literature and on-line sources to guide medical image ordering but are often not used by emergency department (ED) clinicians. Using simulation, we explored whether the presentation of a clinical decision rule (i.e. Canadian CT Head Rule - CCHR), findings from malpractice cases related to clinicians not ordering CT imaging in mild head trauma cases, and estimated patient out-of-pocket cost might influence clinician brain CT ordering. Understanding what type and how information may influence clinical decision making in the ordering advanced medical imaging is important in shaping the optimal design and implementation of related clinical decision support systems. Multi-center, double-blinded simulation-based randomized controlled trial. Following standardized clinical vignette presentation, clinicians made an initial imaging decision for the patient. This was followed by additional information on decision support rules, malpractice outcome review, and patient cost; each with opportunity to modify their initial order. The malpractice and cost information differed by assigned group to test the any temporal relationship. The simulation closed with a second vignette and an imaging decision. One hundred sixteen of the 167 participants (66.9%) initially ordered a brain CT scan. After CCHR presentation, the number of clinicians ordering a CT dropped to 76 (45.8%), representing a 21.1% reduction in CT ordering (P = 0.002). This reduction in CT ordering was maintained, in comparison to initial imaging orders, when presented with malpractice review information (p = 0.002) and patient cost information (p = 0.002). About 57% of clinicians changed their order during study, while 43% never modified their imaging order. This study suggests that ED clinician brain CT imaging decisions may be influenced by clinical decision support rules, patient out-of-pocket cost information and findings from malpractice case review. NCT03449862 , February 27, 2018, Retrospectively registered.

Flexible Early Warning Systems with Workflows and Decision Tables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riedel, F.; Chaves, F.; Zeiner, H.

2012-04-01

An essential part of early warning systems and systems for crisis management are decision support systems that facilitate communication and collaboration. Often official policies specify how different organizations collaborate and what information is communicated to whom. For early warning systems it is crucial that information is exchanged dynamically in a timely manner and all participants get exactly the information they need to fulfil their role in the crisis management process. Information technology obviously lends itself to automate parts of the process. We have experienced however that in current operational systems the information logistics processes are hard-coded, even though they are subject to change. In addition, systems are tailored to the policies and requirements of a certain organization and changes can require major software refactoring. We seek to develop a system that can be deployed and adapted to multiple organizations with different dynamic runtime policies. A major requirement for such a system is that changes can be applied locally without affecting larger parts of the system. In addition to the flexibility regarding changes in policies and processes, the system needs to be able to evolve; when new information sources become available, it should be possible to integrate and use these in the decision process. In general, this kind of flexibility comes with a significant increase in complexity. This implies that only IT professionals can maintain a system that can be reconfigured and adapted; end-users are unable to utilise the provided flexibility. In the business world similar problems arise and previous work suggested using business process management systems (BPMS) or workflow management systems (WfMS) to guide and automate early warning processes or crisis management plans. However, the usability and flexibility of current WfMS are limited, because current notations and user interfaces are still not suitable for end-users, and workflows are usually only suited for rigid processes. We show how improvements can be achieved by using decision tables and rule-based adaptive workflows. Decision tables have been shown to be an intuitive tool that can be used by domain experts to express rule sets that can be interpreted automatically at runtime. Adaptive workflows use a rule-based approach to increase the flexibility of workflows by providing mechanisms to adapt workflows based on context changes, human intervention and availability of services. The combination of workflows, decision tables and rule-based adaption creates a framework that opens up new possibilities for flexible and adaptable workflows, especially, for use in early warning and crisis management systems.

Rejecting the Baby Doe rules and defending a "negative" analysis of the Best Interests Standard.

PubMed

Kopelman, Loretta M

2005-08-01

Two incompatible policies exist for guiding medical decisions for extremely premature, sick, or terminally ill infants, the Best Interests Standard and the newer, 20-year old "Baby Doe" Rules. The background, including why there were two sets of Baby Doe Rules, and their differences with the Best Interests Standard, are illustrated. Two defenses of the Baby Doe Rules are considered and rejected. The first, held by Reagan, Koop, and others, is a "right-to-life" defense. The second, held by some leaders of the American Academy of Pediatrics, is that the Baby Doe Rules are benign and misunderstood. The Baby Doe Rules should be rejected since they can thwart compassionate and individualized decision-making, undercut duties to minimize unnecessary suffering, and single out one group for treatment adults would not want for themselves. In these ways, they are inferior to the older Best Interests Standard. A "negative" analysis of the Best Interests Standard is articulated and defended for decision-making for all incompetent individuals.

Age-related variance in decisions under ambiguity is explained by changes in reasoning, executive functions, and decision-making under risk.

PubMed

Schiebener, Johannes; Brand, Matthias

2017-06-01

Previous literature has explained older individuals' disadvantageous decision-making under ambiguity in the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) by reduced emotional warning signals preceding decisions. We argue that age-related reductions in IGT performance may also be explained by reductions in certain cognitive abilities (reasoning, executive functions). In 210 participants (18-86 years), we found that the age-related variance on IGT performance occurred only in the last 60 trials. The effect was mediated by cognitive abilities and their relation with decision-making performance under risk with explicit rules (Game of Dice Task). Thus, reductions in cognitive functions in older age may be associated with both a reduced ability to gain explicit insight into the rules of the ambiguous decision situation and with failure to choose the less risky options consequently after the rules have been understood explicitly. Previous literature may have underestimated the relevance of cognitive functions for age-related decline in decision-making performance under ambiguity.

Sleep-dependent modulation of affectively guided decision-making.

PubMed

Pace-Schott, Edward F; Nave, Genevieve; Morgan, Alexandra; Spencer, Rebecca M C

2012-02-01

A question of great interest in current sleep research is whether and how sleep might facilitate complex cognitive skills such as decision-making. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) was used to investigate effects of sleep on affect-guided decision-making. After a brief standardized preview of the IGT that was insufficient to learn its underlying rule, participants underwent a 12-h delay containing either a normal night's sleep (Sleep group; N = 28) or continuous daytime wake (Wake group; N = 26). Following the delay, both groups performed the full IGT. To control for circadian effects, two additional groups performed both the preview and the full task either in the morning (N = 17) or the evening (N = 21). In the IGT, four decks of cards were presented. Draws from two 'advantageous decks' yielded low play-money rewards, occasional low losses and, over multiple draws, a net gain. Draws from 'disadvantageous' decks yielded high rewards, occasional high losses and, over multiple draws, a net loss. Participants were instructed to win and avoid losing as much as possible, and better performance was defined as more advantageous draws. Relative to the wake group, the sleep group showed both superior behavioral outcome (more advantageous draws) and superior rule understanding (blindly judged from statements written at task completion). Neither measure differentiated the two control groups. These results illustrate a role of sleep in optimizing decision-making, a benefit that may be brought about by changes in underlying emotional or cognitive processes. © 2011 European Sleep Research Society.

30 CFR 290.107 - Where are the rules concerning the effect of the Department not issuing a decision in my appeal...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Where are the rules concerning the effect of the Department not issuing a decision in my appeal within the statutory time frame? 290.107 Section... PROCEDURES Minerals Revenue Management Appeal Procedures § 290.107 Where are the rules concerning the effect...

75 FR 19558 - Cancellation of Rule of Practice 41.200(b) Before the Board of Patent Appeals and Interferences...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-15

... package to OMB for its review and approval because the changes in this rule making do not affect the...: Final rule. SUMMARY: The United States Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issued a decision in Agilent Technologies, Inc. v. Affymetrix, Inc., 567 F.3d 1366 (Fed. Cir. 2009). That decision impacted the...

An overview of bipolar qualitative decision rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonnefon, Jean-Francois; Dubois, Didier; Fargier, Hélène

Making a good decision is often a matter of listing and comparing positive and negative arguments, as studies in cognitive psychology have shown. In such cases, the evaluation scale should be considered bipolar, that is, negative and positive values are explicitly distinguished. Generally, positive and negative features are evaluated separately, as done in Cumulative Prospect Theory. However, contrary to the latter framework that presupposes genuine numerical assessments, decisions are often made on the basis of an ordinal ranking of the pros and the cons, and focusing on the most salient features, i.e., the decision process is qualitative. In this paper, we report on a project aiming at characterizing several decision rules, based on possibilistic order of magnitude reasoning, and tailored for the joint handling of positive and negative affects, and at testing their empirical validity. The simplest rules can be viewed as extensions of the maximin and maximax criteria to the bipolar case and, like them, suffer from a lack of discrimination power. More decisive rules that refine them are also proposed. They account for both the principle of Pareto-efficiency and the notion of order of magnitude reasoning. The most decisive one uses a lexicographic ranking of the pros and cons. It comes down to a special case of Cumulative Prospect Theory, and subsumes the “Take the best” heuristic.

78 FR 5213 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; New York Stock Exchange LLC; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-24

... which is delegated the authority to review disciplinary decisions on behalf of the Exchange Board of... organization. Under the rule, the decision of a majority of the Hearing Panel is the decision of the Hearing..., may request a determination of guilt by default, and may recommend a penalty to be imposed. If the...

75 FR 39715 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc.; Notice of Filing of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-07-12

... that a refusal by a member to take action necessary to effectuate a final decision of a FINRA officer... necessary to effectuate a final decision of a FINRA officer or the UPC Committee under the UPC Code (FINRA Rule 11000 Series) or other FINRA rules that permit review of FINRA decisions by the UPC Committee...

48 CFR 6101.26 - Reconsideration; amendment of decisions; new hearings [Rule 26].

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... amend a decision or order for any reason that would justify such action on motion of a party. (d) Effect... for granting a new hearing. Upon granting a motion for a new hearing, the Board will take additional... issue a new decision. (b) Procedure. Any motion under 6101.26 (Rule 26) shall comply with the provisions...

48 CFR 6101.26 - Reconsideration; amendment of decisions; new hearings [Rule 26].

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... amend a decision or order for any reason that would justify such action on motion of a party. (d) Effect... for granting a new hearing. Upon granting a motion for a new hearing, the Board will take additional... issue a new decision. (b) Procedure. Any motion under 6101.26 (Rule 26) shall comply with the provisions...

An Autonomous Flight Safety System

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-11-01

are taken. AFSS can take vehicle navigation data from redundant onboard sensors and make flight termination decisions using software-based rules...implemented on redundant flight processors. By basing these decisions on actual Instantaneous Impact Predictions and by providing for an arbitrary...number of mission rules, it is the contention of the AFSS development team that the decision making process used by Missile Flight Control Officers

Using light gradients to investigate symmetry breaking in fish schools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puckett, James; Giannini, Julia

Theoretical models of social animals successfully reproduce many structures found in nature (e.g. swarms, flocks, mills) using simple interaction rules. However, the interactions between individuals is complex and undoubtedly depends on the environment. Using schools of fish, we use visual perturbations to investigate how individuals negotiate both social and environmental information to reach a consensus. Starting with an unpolarized school of fish, we examine how the symmetry is broken and find that not all fish contribute equally to this decision.

A Conceptual Framework for Predicting Error in Complex Human-Machine Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Freed, Michael; Remington, Roger; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

We present a Goals, Operators, Methods, and Selection Rules-Model Human Processor (GOMS-MHP) style model-based approach to the problem of predicting human habit capture errors. Habit captures occur when the model fails to allocate limited cognitive resources to retrieve task-relevant information from memory. Lacking the unretrieved information, decision mechanisms act in accordance with implicit default assumptions, resulting in error when relied upon assumptions prove incorrect. The model helps interface designers identify situations in which such failures are especially likely.

The influence of fiscal rules on healthcare policy in the United States and the Netherlands.

PubMed

Schakel, H Christiaan; Jeurissen, Patrick; Glied, Sherry

2017-10-01

Governments use fiscal rules to put a framework and limits on how budgetary challenges are addressed, but the rules themselves are still an understudied area among health policy scholars. For a long time, healthcare held a somewhat separate status because of the reliance on entitlements and dedicated revenue streams. However, the combined forces of advocates for integral decision-making, central budget control and the increasing costs might shift healthcare towards budgetary frameworks that currently apply to other spending categories. In this paper, we study fiscal rules that the US and the Netherlands have adopted since 2010 and their impact on healthcare policy. Our analysis shows that fiscal rules can have an impact on the rationing of healthcare. In the studied timeframe, the rules seem to have more impact on budget outcomes than on the budget process itself. In addition, the convergence of fiscal and program policy objectives seems to be better accomplished in a budgetary system that applies enforceable budget ceilings. Budgeting for health entitlements requires a comprehensive and tailor-made approach and the composition of traditional rules might not fully answer to the complexities of healthcare policy. This paper aims to contribute to that debate and the way we think about healthcare budgeting. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Determining rules for closing customer service centers: A public utility company's fuzzy decision

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dekorvin, Andre; Shipley, Margaret F.; Lea, Robert N.

1992-01-01

In the present work, we consider the general problem of knowledge acquisition under uncertainty. Simply stated, the problem reduces to the following: how can we capture the knowledge of an expert when the expert is unable to clearly formulate how he or she arrives at a decision? A commonly used method is to learn by examples. We observe how the expert solves specific cases and from this infer some rules by which the decision may have been made. Unique to our work is the fuzzy set representation of the conditions or attributes upon which the expert may possibly base his fuzzy decision. From our examples, we infer certain and possible fuzzy rules for closing a customer service center and illustrate the importance of having the decision closely relate to the conditions under consideration.

Physicians' decision process for drug prescription and the impact of pharmaceutical marketing mix instruments.

PubMed

Campo, Katia; De Staebel, Odette; Gijsbrechts, Els; van Waterschoot, Walter

2005-01-01

This paper provides an in-depth, qualitative analysis of the physicians' decision process for drug prescription. Drugs in the considered therapeutic classes are mainly prescribed by specialists, treating patients with obligatory medical insurance, for a prolonged period of time. The research approach is specifically designed to capture the full complexity and sensitive nature of the physician's choice behavior, which appears to be more hybrid and less rational in nature than is often assumed in quantitative, model-based analyses of prescription behavior. Several interesting findings emerge from the analysis: (i) non-compensatory decision rules seem to dominate the decision process, (ii) consideration sets are typically small and change-resistant, (iii) drug cost is not a major issue for most physicians, (iv) detailing remains one of the most powerful pharmaceutical marketing instruments and is highly appreciated as a valuable and quick source of information, and (v) certain types of non-medical marketing incentives (such as free conference participation) may in some situations also influence drug choices.

A decision support system and rule-based algorithm to augment the human interpretation of the 12-lead electrocardiogram.

PubMed

Cairns, Andrew W; Bond, Raymond R; Finlay, Dewar D; Guldenring, Daniel; Badilini, Fabio; Libretti, Guido; Peace, Aaron J; Leslie, Stephen J

The 12-lead Electrocardiogram (ECG) has been used to detect cardiac abnormalities in the same format for more than 70years. However, due to the complex nature of 12-lead ECG interpretation, there is a significant cognitive workload required from the interpreter. This complexity in ECG interpretation often leads to errors in diagnosis and subsequent treatment. We have previously reported on the development of an ECG interpretation support system designed to augment the human interpretation process. This computerised decision support system has been named 'Interactive Progressive based Interpretation' (IPI). In this study, a decision support algorithm was built into the IPI system to suggest potential diagnoses based on the interpreter's annotations of the 12-lead ECG. We hypothesise semi-automatic interpretation using a digital assistant can be an optimal man-machine model for ECG interpretation. To improve interpretation accuracy and reduce missed co-abnormalities. The Differential Diagnoses Algorithm (DDA) was developed using web technologies where diagnostic ECG criteria are defined in an open storage format, Javascript Object Notation (JSON), which is queried using a rule-based reasoning algorithm to suggest diagnoses. To test our hypothesis, a counterbalanced trial was designed where subjects interpreted ECGs using the conventional approach and using the IPI+DDA approach. A total of 375 interpretations were collected. The IPI+DDA approach was shown to improve diagnostic accuracy by 8.7% (although not statistically significant, p-value=0.1852), the IPI+DDA suggested the correct interpretation more often than the human interpreter in 7/10 cases (varying statistical significance). Human interpretation accuracy increased to 70% when seven suggestions were generated. Although results were not found to be statistically significant, we found; 1) our decision support tool increased the number of correct interpretations, 2) the DDA algorithm suggested the correct interpretation more often than humans, and 3) as many as 7 computerised diagnostic suggestions augmented human decision making in ECG interpretation. Statistical significance may be achieved by expanding sample size. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

78 FR 36434 - Revisions to Rules of Practice

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-18

... federal holidays, make grammatical corrections, and remove the reference to part-day holidays. Rule 3001... section, the following categories of persons are designated ``decision-making personnel'': (i) The.... The following categories of person are designated ``non-decision-making personnel'': (i) All...

Extracting decision rules from police accident reports through decision trees.

PubMed

de Oña, Juan; López, Griselda; Abellán, Joaquín

2013-01-01

Given the current number of road accidents, the aim of many road safety analysts is to identify the main factors that contribute to crash severity. To pinpoint those factors, this paper shows an application that applies some of the methods most commonly used to build decision trees (DTs), which have not been applied to the road safety field before. An analysis of accidents on rural highways in the province of Granada (Spain) between 2003 and 2009 (both inclusive) showed that the methods used to build DTs serve our purpose and may even be complementary. Applying these methods has enabled potentially useful decision rules to be extracted that could be used by road safety analysts. For instance, some of the rules may indicate that women, contrary to men, increase their risk of severity under bad lighting conditions. The rules could be used in road safety campaigns to mitigate specific problems. This would enable managers to implement priority actions based on a classification of accidents by types (depending on their severity). However, the primary importance of this proposal is that other databases not used here (i.e. other infrastructure, roads and countries) could be used to identify unconventional problems in a manner easy for road safety managers to understand, as decision rules. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Form and Objective of the Decision Rule in Absolute Identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balakrishnan, J. D.

1997-01-01

In several conditions of a line length identification experiment, the subjects' decision making strategies were systematically biased against the responses on the edges of the stimulus range. When the range and number of the stimuli were small, the bias caused the percentage of correct responses to be highest in the center and lowest on the extremes of the range. Two general classes of decision rules that would explain these results are considered. The first class assumes that subjects intend to adopt an optimal decision rule, but systematically misrepresent one or more parameters of the decision making context. The second class assumes that subjects use a different measure of performance than the one assumed by the experimenter: instead of maximizing the chances of a correct response, the subject attempts to minimize the expected size of the response error (a "fidelity criterion"). In a second experiment, extended experience and feedback did not diminish the bias effect, but explicitly penalizing all response errors equally, regardless of their size, did reduce or eliminate it in some subjects. Both results favor the fidelity criterion over the optimal rule.

Simple heuristics and rules of thumb: where psychologists and behavioural biologists might meet.

PubMed

Hutchinson, John M C; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2005-05-31

The Centre for Adaptive Behaviour and Cognition (ABC) has hypothesised that much human decision-making can be described by simple algorithmic process models (heuristics). This paper explains this approach and relates it to research in biology on rules of thumb, which we also review. As an example of a simple heuristic, consider the lexicographic strategy of Take The Best for choosing between two alternatives: cues are searched in turn until one discriminates, then search stops and all other cues are ignored. Heuristics consist of building blocks, and building blocks exploit evolved or learned abilities such as recognition memory; it is the complexity of these abilities that allows the heuristics to be simple. Simple heuristics have an advantage in making decisions fast and with little information, and in avoiding overfitting. Furthermore, humans are observed to use simple heuristics. Simulations show that the statistical structures of different environments affect which heuristics perform better, a relationship referred to as ecological rationality. We contrast ecological rationality with the stronger claim of adaptation. Rules of thumb from biology provide clearer examples of adaptation because animals can be studied in the environments in which they evolved. The range of examples is also much more diverse. To investigate them, biologists have sometimes used similar simulation techniques to ABC, but many examples depend on empirically driven approaches. ABC's theoretical framework can be useful in connecting some of these examples, particularly the scattered literature on how information from different cues is integrated. Optimality modelling is usually used to explain less detailed aspects of behaviour but might more often be redirected to investigate rules of thumb.

A study of diverse clinical decision support rule authoring environments and requirements for integration

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Efficient rule authoring tools are critical to allow clinical Knowledge Engineers (KEs), Software Engineers (SEs), and Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to convert medical knowledge into machine executable clinical decision support rules. The goal of this analysis was to identify the critical success factors and challenges of a fully functioning Rule Authoring Environment (RAE) in order to define requirements for a scalable, comprehensive tool to manage enterprise level rules. Methods The authors evaluated RAEs in active use across Partners Healthcare, including enterprise wide, ambulatory only, and system specific tools, with a focus on rule editors for reminder and medication rules. We conducted meetings with users of these RAEs to discuss their general experience and perceived advantages and limitations of these tools. Results While the overall rule authoring process is similar across the 10 separate RAEs, the system capabilities and architecture vary widely. Most current RAEs limit the ability of the clinical decision support (CDS) interventions to be standardized, sharable, interoperable, and extensible. No existing system meets all requirements defined by knowledge management users. Conclusions A successful, scalable, integrated rule authoring environment will need to support a number of key requirements and functions in the areas of knowledge representation, metadata, terminology, authoring collaboration, user interface, integration with electronic health record (EHR) systems, testing, and reporting. PMID:23145874

Information as a Measure of Model Skill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roulston, M. S.; Smith, L. A.

2002-12-01

Physicist Paul Davies has suggested that rather than the quest for laws that approximate ever more closely to "truth", science should be regarded as the quest for compressibility. The goodness of a model can be judged by the degree to which it allows us to compress data describing the real world. The "logarithmic scoring rule" is a method for evaluating probabilistic predictions of reality that turns this philosophical position into a practical means of model evaluation. This scoring rule measures the information deficit or "ignorance" of someone in possession of the prediction. A more applied viewpoint is that the goodness of a model is determined by its value to a user who must make decisions based upon its predictions. Any form of decision making under uncertainty can be reduced to a gambling scenario. Kelly showed that the value of a probabilistic prediction to a gambler pursuing the maximum return on their bets depends on their "ignorance", as determined from the logarithmic scoring rule, thus demonstrating a one-to-one correspondence between data compression and gambling returns. Thus information theory provides a way to think about model evaluation, that is both philosophically satisfying and practically oriented. P.C.W. Davies, in "Complexity, Entropy and the Physics of Information", Proceedings of the Santa Fe Institute, Addison-Wesley 1990 J. Kelly, Bell Sys. Tech. Journal, 35, 916-926, 1956.

GROUP DECISIONS. Shared decision-making drives collective movement in wild baboons.

PubMed

Strandburg-Peshkin, Ariana; Farine, Damien R; Couzin, Iain D; Crofoot, Margaret C

2015-06-19

Conflicts of interest about where to go and what to do are a primary challenge of group living. However, it remains unclear how consensus is achieved in stable groups with stratified social relationships. Tracking wild baboons with a high-resolution global positioning system and analyzing their movements relative to one another reveals that a process of shared decision-making governs baboon movement. Rather than preferentially following dominant individuals, baboons are more likely to follow when multiple initiators agree. When conflicts arise over the direction of movement, baboons choose one direction over the other when the angle between them is large, but they compromise if it is not. These results are consistent with models of collective motion, suggesting that democratic collective action emerging from simple rules is widespread, even in complex, socially stratified societies. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Reconnaissance blind multi-chess: an experimentation platform for ISR sensor fusion and resource management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newman, Andrew J.; Richardson, Casey L.; Kain, Sean M.; Stankiewicz, Paul G.; Guseman, Paul R.; Schreurs, Blake A.; Dunne, Jeffrey A.

2016-05-01

This paper introduces the game of reconnaissance blind multi-chess (RBMC) as a paradigm and test bed for understanding and experimenting with autonomous decision making under uncertainty and in particular managing a network of heterogeneous Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) sensors to maintain situational awareness informing tactical and strategic decision making. The intent is for RBMC to serve as a common reference or challenge problem in fusion and resource management of heterogeneous sensor ensembles across diverse mission areas. We have defined a basic rule set and a framework for creating more complex versions, developed a web-based software realization to serve as an experimentation platform, and developed some initial machine intelligence approaches to playing it.

How accurate are interpretations of curriculum-based measurement progress monitoring data? Visual analysis versus decision rules.

PubMed

Van Norman, Ethan R; Christ, Theodore J

2016-10-01

Curriculum based measurement of oral reading (CBM-R) is used to monitor the effects of academic interventions for individual students. Decisions to continue, modify, or terminate these interventions are made by interpreting time series CBM-R data. Such interpretation is founded upon visual analysis or the application of decision rules. The purpose of this study was to compare the accuracy of visual analysis and decision rules. Visual analysts interpreted 108 CBM-R progress monitoring graphs one of three ways: (a) without graphic aids, (b) with a goal line, or (c) with a goal line and a trend line. Graphs differed along three dimensions, including trend magnitude, variability of observations, and duration of data collection. Automated trend line and data point decision rules were also applied to each graph. Inferential analyses permitted the estimation of the probability of a correct decision (i.e., the student is improving - continue the intervention, or the student is not improving - discontinue the intervention) for each evaluation method as a function of trend magnitude, variability of observations, and duration of data collection. All evaluation methods performed better when students made adequate progress. Visual analysis and decision rules performed similarly when observations were less variable. Results suggest that educators should collect data for more than six weeks, take steps to control measurement error, and visually analyze graphs when data are variable. Implications for practice and research are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Granular support vector machines with association rules mining for protein homology prediction.

PubMed

Tang, Yuchun; Jin, Bo; Zhang, Yan-Qing

2005-01-01

Protein homology prediction between protein sequences is one of critical problems in computational biology. Such a complex classification problem is common in medical or biological information processing applications. How to build a model with superior generalization capability from training samples is an essential issue for mining knowledge to accurately predict/classify unseen new samples and to effectively support human experts to make correct decisions. A new learning model called granular support vector machines (GSVM) is proposed based on our previous work. GSVM systematically and formally combines the principles from statistical learning theory and granular computing theory and thus provides an interesting new mechanism to address complex classification problems. It works by building a sequence of information granules and then building support vector machines (SVM) in some of these information granules on demand. A good granulation method to find suitable granules is crucial for modeling a GSVM with good performance. In this paper, we also propose an association rules-based granulation method. For the granules induced by association rules with high enough confidence and significant support, we leave them as they are because of their high "purity" and significant effect on simplifying the classification task. For every other granule, a SVM is modeled to discriminate the corresponding data. In this way, a complex classification problem is divided into multiple smaller problems so that the learning task is simplified. The proposed algorithm, here named GSVM-AR, is compared with SVM by KDDCUP04 protein homology prediction data. The experimental results show that finding the splitting hyperplane is not a trivial task (we should be careful to select the association rules to avoid overfitting) and GSVM-AR does show significant improvement compared to building one single SVM in the whole feature space. Another advantage is that the utility of GSVM-AR is very good because it is easy to be implemented. More importantly and more interestingly, GSVM provides a new mechanism to address complex classification problems.

Application of decision rules for empowering of Indonesian telematics services SMEs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tosida, E. T.; Hairlangga, O.; Amirudin, F.; Ridwanah, M.

2018-03-01

The independence of the field of telematics became one of Indonesia's vision in 2024. One effort to achieve it can be done by empowering SMEs in the field of telematics. Empowerment carried out need a practical mechanism by utilizing data centered, including through the National Economic Census database (Susenas). Based on the Susenas can be formulated the decision rules of determining the provision of assistance for SMEs in the field of telematics. The way it did by generating the rule base through the classification technique. The CART algorithm-based decision rule model performs better than C45 and ID3 models. The high level of performance model is also in line with the regulations applied by the government. This becomes one of the strengths of research, because the resulting model is consistent with the existing conditions in Indonesia. The rules base generated from the three classification techniques show different rules. The CART technique has pattern matching with the realization of activities in The Ministry of Cooperatives and SMEs. So far, the government has difficulty in referring data related to the empowerment of SMEs telematics services. Therefore, the findings resulting from this research can be used as an alternative decision support system related to the program of empowerment of SMEs in telematics.

Analytical model for minority games with evolutionary learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campos, Daniel; Méndez, Vicenç; Llebot, Josep E.; Hernández, Germán A.

2010-06-01

In a recent work [D. Campos, J.E. Llebot, V. Méndez, Theor. Popul. Biol. 74 (2009) 16] we have introduced a biological version of the Evolutionary Minority Game that tries to reproduce the intraspecific competition for limited resources in an ecosystem. In comparison with the complex decision-making mechanisms used in standard Minority Games, only two extremely simple strategies ( juveniles and adults) are accessible to the agents. Complexity is introduced instead through an evolutionary learning rule that allows younger agents to learn taking better decisions. We find that this game shows many of the typical properties found for Evolutionary Minority Games, like self-segregation behavior or the existence of an oscillation phase for a certain range of the parameter values. However, an analytical treatment becomes much easier in our case, taking advantage of the simple strategies considered. Using a model consisting of a simple dynamical system, the phase diagram of the game (which differentiates three phases: adults crowd, juveniles crowd and oscillations) is reproduced.

Medicare Program; Prior Authorization Process for Certain Durable Medical Equipment, Prosthetics, Orthotics, and Supplies. Final rule.

PubMed

2015-12-30

This final rule establishes a prior authorization program for certain durable medical equipment, prosthetics, orthotics, and supplies (DMEPOS) items that are frequently subject to unnecessary utilization. This rule defines unnecessary utilization and creates a new requirement that claims for certain DMEPOS items must have an associated provisional affirmed prior authorization decision as a condition of payment. This rule also adds the review contractor's decision regarding prior authorization of coverage of DMEPOS items to the list of actions that are not initial determinations and therefore not appealable.

Distributed collaborative environments for predictive battlespace awareness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McQuay, William K.

2003-09-01

The past decade has produced significant changes in the conduct of military operations: asymmetric warfare, the reliance on dynamic coalitions, stringent rules of engagement, increased concern about collateral damage, and the need for sustained air operations. Mission commanders need to assimilate a tremendous amount of information, make quick-response decisions, and quantify the effects of those decisions in the face of uncertainty. Situational assessment is crucial in understanding the battlespace. Decision support tools in a distributed collaborative environment offer the capability of decomposing complex multitask processes and distributing them over a dynamic set of execution assets that include modeling, simulations, and analysis tools. Decision support technologies can semi-automate activities, such as analysis and planning, that have a reasonably well-defined process and provide machine-level interfaces to refine the myriad of information that the commander must fused. Collaborative environments provide the framework and integrate models, simulations, and domain specific decision support tools for the sharing and exchanging of data, information, knowledge, and actions. This paper describes ongoing AFRL research efforts in applying distributed collaborative environments to predictive battlespace awareness.

Gender bias and judicial decisions of undue influence in testamentary challenges.

PubMed

Recupero, Patricia R; Christopher, Paul P; Strong, David R; Price, Marilyn; Harms, Samara E

2015-03-01

Allegations of undue influence constitute a common basis for contests of wills. Legal research from the 1990s suggests that gender bias factors significantly into judicial decision-making regarding alleged undue influence and testamentary intent. In this study, we sought to assess whether this bias is present today and to identify any factors that may be associated with it. Probate judges from several jurisdictions in the United States were asked to consider two hypothetical case vignettes drawn from actual published decisions. In our study, the gender of the testator played only a minor role in how judges weighed factors in the decision-making process and, overall, did not significantly influence opinions regarding the presence of undue influence. The specifics of the case and the gender of the judge emerged as the most consistent and robust potential influences on decision-making. Our results suggest that probate rulings involving undue influence are likely to represent a complex interaction of factors involving the testator's and judge's genders and the specifics of individual cases. The implications of these findings are discussed. © 2015 American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law.

Improved multi-objective ant colony optimization algorithm and its application in complex reasoning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xinqing; Zhao, Yang; Wang, Dong; Zhu, Huijie; Zhang, Qing

2013-09-01

The problem of fault reasoning has aroused great concern in scientific and engineering fields. However, fault investigation and reasoning of complex system is not a simple reasoning decision-making problem. It has become a typical multi-constraint and multi-objective reticulate optimization decision-making problem under many influencing factors and constraints. So far, little research has been carried out in this field. This paper transforms the fault reasoning problem of complex system into a paths-searching problem starting from known symptoms to fault causes. Three optimization objectives are considered simultaneously: maximum probability of average fault, maximum average importance, and minimum average complexity of test. Under the constraints of both known symptoms and the causal relationship among different components, a multi-objective optimization mathematical model is set up, taking minimizing cost of fault reasoning as the target function. Since the problem is non-deterministic polynomial-hard(NP-hard), a modified multi-objective ant colony algorithm is proposed, in which a reachability matrix is set up to constrain the feasible search nodes of the ants and a new pseudo-random-proportional rule and a pheromone adjustment mechinism are constructed to balance conflicts between the optimization objectives. At last, a Pareto optimal set is acquired. Evaluation functions based on validity and tendency of reasoning paths are defined to optimize noninferior set, through which the final fault causes can be identified according to decision-making demands, thus realize fault reasoning of the multi-constraint and multi-objective complex system. Reasoning results demonstrate that the improved multi-objective ant colony optimization(IMACO) can realize reasoning and locating fault positions precisely by solving the multi-objective fault diagnosis model, which provides a new method to solve the problem of multi-constraint and multi-objective fault diagnosis and reasoning of complex system.

Modeling the prediction of business intelligence system effectiveness.

PubMed

Weng, Sung-Shun; Yang, Ming-Hsien; Koo, Tian-Lih; Hsiao, Pei-I

2016-01-01

Although business intelligence (BI) technologies are continually evolving, the capability to apply BI technologies has become an indispensable resource for enterprises running in today's complex, uncertain and dynamic business environment. This study performed pioneering work by constructing models and rules for the prediction of business intelligence system effectiveness (BISE) in relation to the implementation of BI solutions. For enterprises, effectively managing critical attributes that determine BISE to develop prediction models with a set of rules for self-evaluation of the effectiveness of BI solutions is necessary to improve BI implementation and ensure its success. The main study findings identified the critical prediction indicators of BISE that are important to forecasting BI performance and highlighted five classification and prediction rules of BISE derived from decision tree structures, as well as a refined regression prediction model with four critical prediction indicators constructed by logistic regression analysis that can enable enterprises to improve BISE while effectively managing BI solution implementation and catering to academics to whom theory is important.

Proposed Clinical Decision Rules to Diagnose Acute Rhinosinusitis Among Adults in Primary Care.

PubMed

Ebell, Mark H; Hansen, Jens Georg

2017-07-01

To reduce inappropriate antibiotic prescribing, we sought to develop a clinical decision rule for the diagnosis of acute rhinosinusitis and acute bacterial rhinosinusitis. Multivariate analysis and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis were used to develop clinical decision rules for the diagnosis of acute rhinosinusitis, defined using 3 different reference standards (purulent antral puncture fluid or abnormal finding on a computed tomographic (CT) scan; for acute bacterial rhinosinusitis, we used a positive bacterial culture of antral fluid). Signs, symptoms, C-reactive protein (CRP), and reference standard tests were prospectively recorded in 175 Danish patients aged 18 to 65 years seeking care for suspected acute rhinosinusitis. For each reference standard, we developed 2 clinical decision rules: a point score based on a logistic regression model and an algorithm based on a CART model. We identified low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups for acute rhinosinusitis or acute bacterial rhinosinusitis for each clinical decision rule. The point scores each had between 5 and 6 predictors, and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC) between 0.721 and 0.767. For positive bacterial culture as the reference standard, low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups had a 16%, 49%, and 73% likelihood of acute bacterial rhinosinusitis, respectively. CART models had an AUROCC ranging from 0.783 to 0.827. For positive bacterial culture as the reference standard, low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups had a likelihood of acute bacterial rhinosinusitis of 6%, 31%, and 59% respectively. We have developed a series of clinical decision rules integrating signs, symptoms, and CRP to diagnose acute rhinosinusitis and acute bacterial rhinosinusitis with good accuracy. They now require prospective validation and an assessment of their effect on clinical and process outcomes. © 2017 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.

Decision support system for triage management: A hybrid approach using rule-based reasoning and fuzzy logic.

PubMed

Dehghani Soufi, Mahsa; Samad-Soltani, Taha; Shams Vahdati, Samad; Rezaei-Hachesu, Peyman

2018-06-01

Fast and accurate patient triage for the response process is a critical first step in emergency situations. This process is often performed using a paper-based mode, which intensifies workload and difficulty, wastes time, and is at risk of human errors. This study aims to design and evaluate a decision support system (DSS) to determine the triage level. A combination of the Rule-Based Reasoning (RBR) and Fuzzy Logic Classifier (FLC) approaches were used to predict the triage level of patients according to the triage specialist's opinions and Emergency Severity Index (ESI) guidelines. RBR was applied for modeling the first to fourth decision points of the ESI algorithm. The data relating to vital signs were used as input variables and modeled using fuzzy logic. Narrative knowledge was converted to If-Then rules using XML. The extracted rules were then used to create the rule-based engine and predict the triage levels. Fourteen RBR and 27 fuzzy rules were extracted and used in the rule-based engine. The performance of the system was evaluated using three methods with real triage data. The accuracy of the clinical decision support systems (CDSSs; in the test data) was 99.44%. The evaluation of the error rate revealed that, when using the traditional method, 13.4% of the patients were miss-triaged, which is statically significant. The completeness of the documentation also improved from 76.72% to 98.5%. Designed system was effective in determining the triage level of patients and it proved helpful for nurses as they made decisions, generated nursing diagnoses based on triage guidelines. The hybrid approach can reduce triage misdiagnosis in a highly accurate manner and improve the triage outcomes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Failure detection system design methodology. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chow, E. Y.

1980-01-01

The design of a failure detection and identification system consists of designing a robust residual generation process and a high performance decision making process. The design of these two processes are examined separately. Residual generation is based on analytical redundancy. Redundancy relations that are insensitive to modelling errors and noise effects are important for designing robust residual generation processes. The characterization of the concept of analytical redundancy in terms of a generalized parity space provides a framework in which a systematic approach to the determination of robust redundancy relations are developed. The Bayesian approach is adopted for the design of high performance decision processes. The FDI decision problem is formulated as a Bayes sequential decision problem. Since the optimal decision rule is incomputable, a methodology for designing suboptimal rules is proposed. A numerical algorithm is developed to facilitate the design and performance evaluation of suboptimal rules.

Textural features for image classification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haralick, R. M.; Dinstein, I.; Shanmugam, K.

1973-01-01

Description of some easily computable textural features based on gray-tone spatial dependances, and illustration of their application in category-identification tasks of three different kinds of image data - namely, photomicrographs of five kinds of sandstones, 1:20,000 panchromatic aerial photographs of eight land-use categories, and ERTS multispectral imagery containing several land-use categories. Two kinds of decision rules are used - one for which the decision regions are convex polyhedra (a piecewise-linear decision rule), and one for which the decision regions are rectangular parallelpipeds (a min-max decision rule). In each experiment the data set was divided into two parts, a training set and a test set. Test set identification accuracy is 89% for the photomicrographs, 82% for the aerial photographic imagery, and 83% for the satellite imagery. These results indicate that the easily computable textural features probably have a general applicability for a wide variety of image-classification applications.

19 CFR 177.13 - Inconsistent customs decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 19 Customs Duties 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Inconsistent customs decisions. 177.13 Section 177.13 Customs Duties U.S. CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY; DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) ADMINISTRATIVE RULINGS General Ruling Procedure § 177.13 Inconsistent customs...

19 CFR 177.13 - Inconsistent customs decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 19 Customs Duties 2 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Inconsistent customs decisions. 177.13 Section 177.13 Customs Duties U.S. CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY; DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) ADMINISTRATIVE RULINGS General Ruling Procedure § 177.13 Inconsistent customs...

19 CFR 177.13 - Inconsistent customs decisions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 19 Customs Duties 2 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Inconsistent customs decisions. 177.13 Section 177.13 Customs Duties U.S. CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY; DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) ADMINISTRATIVE RULINGS General Ruling Procedure § 177.13 Inconsistent customs...

Learning stage-dependent effect of M1 disruption on value-based motor decisions.

PubMed

Derosiere, Gerard; Vassiliadis, Pierre; Demaret, Sophie; Zénon, Alexandre; Duque, Julie

2017-11-15

The present study aimed at characterizing the impact of M1 disruption on the implementation of implicit value information in motor decisions, at both early stages (during reinforcement learning) and late stages (after consolidation) of action value encoding. Fifty subjects performed, over three consecutive days, a task that required them to select between two finger responses according to the color (instruction) and to the shape (implicit, undisclosed rule) of an imperative signal: considering the implicit rule in addition to the instruction allowed subjects to earn more money. We investigated the functional contribution of M1 to the implementation of the implicit rule in subjects' motor decisions. Continuous theta burst stimulation (cTBS) was applied over M1 either on Day 1 or on Day 3, producing a temporary lesion either during reinforcement learning (cTBS Learning group) or after consolidation of the implicit rule, during decision-making (cTBS Decision group), respectively. Interestingly, disrupting M1 activity on Day 1 improved the reliance on the implicit rule, plausibly because M1 cTBS increased dopamine release in the putamen in an indirect way. This finding corroborates the view that cTBS may affect activity in unstimulated areas, such as the basal ganglia. Notably, this effect was short-lasting; it did not persist overnight, suggesting that the functional integrity of M1 during learning is a prerequisite for the consolidation of implicit value information to occur. Besides, cTBS over M1 did not impact the use of the implicit rule when applied on Day 3, although it did so when applied on Day 2 in a recent study where the reliance on the implicit rule declined following cTBS (Derosiere et al., 2017). Overall, these findings indicate that the human M1 is functionally involved in the consolidation and implementation of implicit value information underlying motor decisions. However, M1 contribution seems to vanish as subjects become more experienced in using the implicit value information to make their motor decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Cape Town Clinical Decision Rule for Streptococcal Pharyngitis in Children

PubMed Central

Engel, Mark Emmanuel; Cohen, Karen; Gounden, Ronald; Kengne, Andre P.; Barth, Dylan Dominic; Whitelaw, Andrew C; Francis, Veronica; Badri, Motasim; Stewart, Annemie; Dale, James B.; Mayosi, Bongani M.; Maartens, Gary

2016-01-01

Background Existing clinical decision rules (CDR) to diagnose group A streptococcal (GAS) pharyngitis have not been validated in sub-Saharan Africa. We developed a locally applicable CDR while evaluating existing CDRs for diagnosing GAS pharyngitis in South African children. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study and enrolled 997 children aged 3-15 years presenting to primary care clinics with a complaint of sore throat, and whose parents provided consent. Main outcome measures were signs and symptoms of pharyngitis, and a positive GAS culture from a throat swab. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were used to develop the clinical decision rule. In addition, the diagnostic effectiveness of six existing rules for predicting a positive culture in our cohort was assessed. Results 206 of 982 children (21%) had a positive GAS culture. Tonsillar swelling, tonsillar exudates, tender or enlarged anterior cervical lymph nodes, absence of cough and absence of rhinorrhea were associated with positive cultures in bivariate and multivariate analyses. Four variables (tonsillar swelling and one of tonsillar exudate, no rhinorrhea, no cough), when used in a cumulative score, showed 83.7% sensitivity and 32.2% specificity for GAS pharyngitis. Of existing rules tested, the McIsaac rule had the highest positive predictive value (28%), but missed 49% of the culture-positive children who should have been treated. Conclusion The new four-variable clinical decision rule for GAS pharyngitis (i.e., tonsillar swelling and one of tonsillar exudate, no rhinorrhea, no cough) outperformed existing rules for GAS pharyngitis diagnosis in children with symptomatic sore throat in Cape Town. PMID:27870815

Characterising bias in regulatory risk and decision analysis: An analysis of heuristics applied in health technology appraisal, chemicals regulation, and climate change governance.

PubMed

MacGillivray, Brian H

2017-08-01

In many environmental and public health domains, heuristic methods of risk and decision analysis must be relied upon, either because problem structures are ambiguous, reliable data is lacking, or decisions are urgent. This introduces an additional source of uncertainty beyond model and measurement error - uncertainty stemming from relying on inexact inference rules. Here we identify and analyse heuristics used to prioritise risk objects, to discriminate between signal and noise, to weight evidence, to construct models, to extrapolate beyond datasets, and to make policy. Some of these heuristics are based on causal generalisations, yet can misfire when these relationships are presumed rather than tested (e.g. surrogates in clinical trials). Others are conventions designed to confer stability to decision analysis, yet which may introduce serious error when applied ritualistically (e.g. significance testing). Some heuristics can be traced back to formal justifications, but only subject to strong assumptions that are often violated in practical applications. Heuristic decision rules (e.g. feasibility rules) in principle act as surrogates for utility maximisation or distributional concerns, yet in practice may neglect costs and benefits, be based on arbitrary thresholds, and be prone to gaming. We highlight the problem of rule-entrenchment, where analytical choices that are in principle contestable are arbitrarily fixed in practice, masking uncertainty and potentially introducing bias. Strategies for making risk and decision analysis more rigorous include: formalising the assumptions and scope conditions under which heuristics should be applied; testing rather than presuming their underlying empirical or theoretical justifications; using sensitivity analysis, simulations, multiple bias analysis, and deductive systems of inference (e.g. directed acyclic graphs) to characterise rule uncertainty and refine heuristics; adopting "recovery schemes" to correct for known biases; and basing decision rules on clearly articulated values and evidence, rather than convention. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Rule groupings in expert systems using nearest neighbour decision rules, and convex hulls

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anastasiadis, Stergios

1991-01-01

Expert System shells are lacking in many areas of software engineering. Large rule based systems are not semantically comprehensible, difficult to debug, and impossible to modify or validate. Partitioning a set of rules found in CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System) into groups of rules which reflect the underlying semantic subdomains of the problem, will address adequately the concerns stated above. Techniques are introduced to structure a CLIPS rule base into groups of rules that inherently have common semantic information. The concepts involved are imported from the field of A.I., Pattern Recognition, and Statistical Inference. Techniques focus on the areas of feature selection, classification, and a criteria of how 'good' the classification technique is, based on Bayesian Decision Theory. A variety of distance metrics are discussed for measuring the 'closeness' of CLIPS rules and various Nearest Neighbor classification algorithms are described based on the above metric.

Web-based Weather Expert System (WES) for Space Shuttle Launch

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bardina, Jorge E.; Rajkumar, T.

2003-01-01

The Web-based Weather Expert System (WES) is a critical module of the Virtual Test Bed development to support 'go/no go' decisions for Space Shuttle operations in the Intelligent Launch and Range Operations program of NASA. The weather rules characterize certain aspects of the environment related to the launching or landing site, the time of the day or night, the pad or runway conditions, the mission durations, the runway equipment and landing type. Expert system rules are derived from weather contingency rules, which were developed over years by NASA. Backward chaining, a goal-directed inference method is adopted, because a particular consequence or goal clause is evaluated first, and then chained backward through the rules. Once a rule is satisfied or true, then that particular rule is fired and the decision is expressed. The expert system is continuously verifying the rules against the past one-hour weather conditions and the decisions are made. The normal procedure of operations requires a formal pre-launch weather briefing held on Launch minus 1 day, which is a specific weather briefing for all areas of Space Shuttle launch operations. In this paper, the Web-based Weather Expert System of the Intelligent Launch and range Operations program is presented.

Validation of the Ottawa Knee Rules.

PubMed

Emparanza, J I; Aginaga, J R

2001-10-01

We sought to validate the Ottawa Knee Rules for determining the need for radiography in patients with acute knee injury. A prospective cohort study was performed in emergency departments of 11 hospitals of the Osakidetza-Basque Country Health Service. The patient population was composed of a convenience sample of 1,522 eligible adults of 2,315 patients with acute knee injuries. The attending emergency physicians assessed each patient for standardized clinical variables and determined the need for radiography according to the decision rule. Radiography was performed in each patient, irrespective of the determination of the rule, after clinical evaluation findings were recorded. The rule was assessed for the ability to correctly identify fracture of the knee. The decision rule had a sensitivity of 1.0 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.96 to 1.0), identifying 89 patients with clinically important fractures. The potential reduction in use of radiography was estimated to be 49%. The probability of fracture, if the decision rules were negative, is estimated to be 0% (95% CI 0% to 0.5%). Prospective validation has shown the Ottawa Knee Rules to be 100% sensitive for identifying fractures of the knee and to have the potential to allow physicians to reduce the use of radiography in patients with acute knee injuries.

77 FR 32593 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Notice of Intent To Renew Collection: Rules Relating To...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-01

... Association decisions in disciplinary, membership denial, registration, and member responsibility actions... and disciplinary actions. The Commission estimates the burden of this collection of information as... Renew Collection: Rules Relating To Review of National Futures Association Decisions in Disciplinary...

19 CFR 177.1 - General ruling practice and definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... in applicable Treasury Decisions, rulings, opinions, or court decisions published in the Customs... in response to a written request therefor and set forth in a letter addressed to the person making... more than call attention to a well-established interpretation or principle of Customs law, without...

Boosting medical diagnostics by pooling independent judgments

PubMed Central

Kurvers, Ralf H. J. M.; Herzog, Stefan M.; Hertwig, Ralph; Krause, Jens; Carney, Patricia A.; Bogart, Andy; Argenziano, Giuseppe; Zalaudek, Iris; Wolf, Max

2016-01-01

Collective intelligence refers to the ability of groups to outperform individual decision makers when solving complex cognitive problems. Despite its potential to revolutionize decision making in a wide range of domains, including medical, economic, and political decision making, at present, little is known about the conditions underlying collective intelligence in real-world contexts. We here focus on two key areas of medical diagnostics, breast and skin cancer detection. Using a simulation study that draws on large real-world datasets, involving more than 140 doctors making more than 20,000 diagnoses, we investigate when combining the independent judgments of multiple doctors outperforms the best doctor in a group. We find that similarity in diagnostic accuracy is a key condition for collective intelligence: Aggregating the independent judgments of doctors outperforms the best doctor in a group whenever the diagnostic accuracy of doctors is relatively similar, but not when doctors’ diagnostic accuracy differs too much. This intriguingly simple result is highly robust and holds across different group sizes, performance levels of the best doctor, and collective intelligence rules. The enabling role of similarity, in turn, is explained by its systematic effects on the number of correct and incorrect decisions of the best doctor that are overruled by the collective. By identifying a key factor underlying collective intelligence in two important real-world contexts, our findings pave the way for innovative and more effective approaches to complex real-world decision making, and to the scientific analyses of those approaches. PMID:27432950

Searching for discrimination rules in protease proteolytic cleavage activity using genetic programming with a min-max scoring function.

PubMed

Yang, Zheng Rong; Thomson, Rebecca; Hodgman, T Charles; Dry, Jonathan; Doyle, Austin K; Narayanan, Ajit; Wu, XiKun

2003-11-01

This paper presents an algorithm which is able to extract discriminant rules from oligopeptides for protease proteolytic cleavage activity prediction. The algorithm is developed using genetic programming. Three important components in the algorithm are a min-max scoring function, the reverse Polish notation (RPN) and the use of minimum description length. The min-max scoring function is developed using amino acid similarity matrices for measuring the similarity between an oligopeptide and a rule, which is a complex algebraic equation of amino acids rather than a simple pattern sequence. The Fisher ratio is then calculated on the scoring values using the class label associated with the oligopeptides. The discriminant ability of each rule can therefore be evaluated. The use of RPN makes the evolutionary operations simpler and therefore reduces the computational cost. To prevent overfitting, the concept of minimum description length is used to penalize over-complicated rules. A fitness function is therefore composed of the Fisher ratio and the use of minimum description length for an efficient evolutionary process. In the application to four protease datasets (Trypsin, Factor Xa, Hepatitis C Virus and HIV protease cleavage site prediction), our algorithm is superior to C5, a conventional method for deriving decision trees.

Automated diagnosis of coronary artery disease based on data mining and fuzzy modeling.

PubMed

Tsipouras, Markos G; Exarchos, Themis P; Fotiadis, Dimitrios I; Kotsia, Anna P; Vakalis, Konstantinos V; Naka, Katerina K; Michalis, Lampros K

2008-07-01

A fuzzy rule-based decision support system (DSS) is presented for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease (CAD). The system is automatically generated from an initial annotated dataset, using a four stage methodology: 1) induction of a decision tree from the data; 2) extraction of a set of rules from the decision tree, in disjunctive normal form and formulation of a crisp model; 3) transformation of the crisp set of rules into a fuzzy model; and 4) optimization of the parameters of the fuzzy model. The dataset used for the DSS generation and evaluation consists of 199 subjects, each one characterized by 19 features, including demographic and history data, as well as laboratory examinations. Tenfold cross validation is employed, and the average sensitivity and specificity obtained is 62% and 54%, respectively, using the set of rules extracted from the decision tree (first and second stages), while the average sensitivity and specificity increase to 80% and 65%, respectively, when the fuzzification and optimization stages are used. The system offers several advantages since it is automatically generated, it provides CAD diagnosis based on easily and noninvasively acquired features, and is able to provide interpretation for the decisions made.

The impact of the Rasouli decision: a Survey of Canadian intensivists.

PubMed

Cape, David; Fox-Robichaud, Alison; Turgeon, Alexis F; Seely, Andrew; Hall, Richard; Burns, Karen; Singal, Rohit K; Dodek, Peter; Bagshaw, Sean; Sibbald, Robert; Downar, James

2016-03-01

In a landmark 2013 decision, the Supreme Court of Canada (SCC) ruled that the withdrawal of life support in certain circumstances is a treatment requiring patient or substitute decision maker (SDM) consent. How intensive care unit (ICU) physicians perceive this ruling is unknown. To determine physician knowledge of and attitudes towards the SCC decision, as well as the self-reported changes in practice attributed to the decision. We surveyed intensivists at university hospitals across Canada. We used a knowledge test and Likert-scale questions to measure respondent knowledge of and attitudes towards the ruling. We used vignettes to assess decision making in cases of intractable physician-SDM conflict over the management of patients with very poor prognoses. We compared management choices pre-SCC decision versus post-SCC decision versus the subjective, respondent-defined most appropriate choice. Responses were compared across predefined subgroups. We performed qualitative analysis on free-text responses. We received 82 responses (response rate=42%). Respondents reported providing high levels of self-defined inappropriate treatment. Although most respondents reported no change in practice, there was a significant overall shift towards higher intensity and less subjectively appropriate management after the SCC decision. Attitudes to the SCC decision and approaches to disputes over end-of-life (EoL) care in the ICU were highly variable. There were no significant differences among predefined subgroups. Many Canadian ICU physicians report providing a higher intensity of treatment, and less subjectively appropriate treatment, in situations of dispute over EoL care after the Supreme Court of Canada's ruling in Cuthbertson versus Rasouli. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Mock jury trials in Taiwan--paving the ground for introducing lay participation.

PubMed

Huang, Kuo-Chang; Lin, Chang-Ching

2014-08-01

The first mock jury study in Taiwan, in which 279 community members watched a videotaped trial, investigated how jurors' estimates of the relative undesirability of wrongful conviction versus wrongful acquittal predicted individual decisions and how decision rules affected outcomes. The percentage of jurors who viewed wrongful conviction as more undesirable increased from 50.9% to 60.9% after deliberation and jurors' postdeliberation acquittal rate (71.7%) was higher than predeliberation acquittal rate (58.8%). Jurors' estimates of the undesirability of wrongful conviction were not correlated with their predeliberation votes but became positively correlated with their postdeliberation decisions. The unanimous rule facilitated jurors' change of vote, predominantly from conviction to acquittal, than the simple majority rule. Jurors reaching a verdict under the unanimous rule viewed deliberation and the verdict more positively. This study indicates that deliberation can ameliorate the problem of most Taiwanese citizens not viewing wrongful conviction as more undesirable than wrongful acquittal. It also suggests that Taiwan should adopt a unanimous rule for its proposed lay participation system.

12 CFR 263.38 - Recommended decision and filing of record.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM RULES OF PRACTICE FOR HEARINGS Uniform Rules of Practice and Procedure § 263.38... expiration of the time allowed for filing reply briefs under § 263.37(b), the administrative law judge shall... the administrative law judge's recommended decision, recommended findings of fact, recommended...

49 CFR 1115.1 - Scope of rule.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... other than initial decisions. For each category, this rule describes the types of appeal permitted, the requirements to be observed in filing an appeal, provisions for stay of the action, and the status of the action in the absence of a stay. (c) Appeals from the decisions of employees acting under authority...

12 CFR 622.12 - Proposed findings and conclusions; recommended decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Proposed findings and conclusions; recommended decision. 622.12 Section 622.12 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Rules Applicable to Formal Hearings § 622.12 Proposed findings and conclusions...

10 CFR 110.50 - Terms.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... provisions of the Atomic Energy Act and to all applicable rules, regulations, decisions and orders of the... conditions when required by amendments of the Atomic Energy Act or other applicable law, or by other rules, regulations, decisions or orders issued in accordance with the terms of the Atomic Energy Act or other...

19 CFR 177.2 - Submission of ruling requests.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... Headquarters Office will prepare final decisions under § 177.11 (Requests for Advice by Field Officers), or § 174.23 (Further Review of Protests), § 177.10 (Change of Practice), decisions under part 175 of this... Carrier rulings should be addressed to the Commissioner of Customs and Border Protection, Attention...

17 CFR 201.411 - Commission consideration of initial decisions by hearing officers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Commission consideration of initial decisions by hearing officers. 201.411 Section 201.411 Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION RULES OF PRACTICE Rules of Practice Appeal to the Commission and...

76 FR 37274 - Outer Continental Shelf Air Regulations Consistency Update for Alaska

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-27

... and prevents EPA from making substantive changes to the requirements it incorporates. As a result, EPA... narrative discussing how EPA made the decision to include or exclude rules. The Alaska Eskimo Whaling Commission expressed specific concern with EPA's decision to exclude administrative and procedural rules and...

An automated approach to the design of decision tree classifiers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Argentiero, P.; Chin, R.; Beaudet, P.

1982-01-01

An automated technique is presented for designing effective decision tree classifiers predicated only on a priori class statistics. The procedure relies on linear feature extractions and Bayes table look-up decision rules. Associated error matrices are computed and utilized to provide an optimal design of the decision tree at each so-called 'node'. A by-product of this procedure is a simple algorithm for computing the global probability of correct classification assuming the statistical independence of the decision rules. Attention is given to a more precise definition of decision tree classification, the mathematical details on the technique for automated decision tree design, and an example of a simple application of the procedure using class statistics acquired from an actual Landsat scene.

Primary motor cortex contributes to the implementation of implicit value-based rules during motor decisions.

PubMed

Derosiere, Gerard; Zénon, Alexandre; Alamia, Andrea; Duque, Julie

2017-02-01

In the present study, we investigated the functional contribution of the human primary motor cortex (M1) to motor decisions. Continuous theta burst stimulation (cTBS) was used to alter M1 activity while participants performed a decision-making task in which the reward associated with the subjects' responses (right hand finger movements) depended on explicit and implicit value-based rules. Subjects performed the task over two consecutive days and cTBS occurred in the middle of Day 2, once the subjects were just about to implement implicit rules, in addition to the explicit instructions, to choose their responses, as evident in the control group (cTBS over the right somatosensory cortex). Interestingly, cTBS over the left M1 prevented subjects from implementing the implicit value-based rule while its implementation was enhanced in the group receiving cTBS over the right M1. Hence, cTBS had opposite effects depending on whether it was applied on the contralateral or ipsilateral M1. The use of the explicit value-based rule was unaffected by cTBS in the three groups of subject. Overall, the present study provides evidence for a functional contribution of M1 to the implementation of freshly acquired implicit rules, possibly through its involvement in a cortico-subcortical network controlling value-based motor decisions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Meta-modelling, visualization and emulation of multi-dimensional data for virtual production intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schulz, Wolfgang; Hermanns, Torsten; Al Khawli, Toufik

2017-07-01

Decision making for competitive production in high-wage countries is a daily challenge where rational and irrational methods are used. The design of decision making processes is an intriguing, discipline spanning science. However, there are gaps in understanding the impact of the known mathematical and procedural methods on the usage of rational choice theory. Following Benjamin Franklin's rule for decision making formulated in London 1772, he called "Prudential Algebra" with the meaning of prudential reasons, one of the major ingredients of Meta-Modelling can be identified finally leading to one algebraic value labelling the results (criteria settings) of alternative decisions (parameter settings). This work describes the advances in Meta-Modelling techniques applied to multi-dimensional and multi-criterial optimization by identifying the persistence level of the corresponding Morse-Smale Complex. Implementations for laser cutting and laser drilling are presented, including the generation of fast and frugal Meta-Models with controlled error based on mathematical model reduction Reduced Models are derived to avoid any unnecessary complexity. Both, model reduction and analysis of multi-dimensional parameter space are used to enable interactive communication between Discovery Finders and Invention Makers. Emulators and visualizations of a metamodel are introduced as components of Virtual Production Intelligence making applicable the methods of Scientific Design Thinking and getting the developer as well as the operator more skilled.

18 CFR 385.702 - Definitions (Rule 702).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Definitions (Rule 702). 385.702 Section 385.702 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY PROCEDURAL RULES RULES OF PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Decisions § 385.702 Definitions (Rule...

The organization of societal conflicts by pavement ants Tetramorium caespitum: an agent-based model of amine-mediated decision making

PubMed Central

Hoover, Kevin M.; Bubak, Andrew N.; Law, Isaac J.; Yaeger, Jazmine D. W.; Renner, Kenneth J.; Swallow, John G.; Greene, Michael J.

2016-01-01

Abstract Ant colonies self-organize to solve complex problems despite the simplicity of an individual ant’s brain. Pavement ant Tetramorium caespitum colonies must solve the problem of defending the territory that they patrol in search of energetically rich forage. When members of 2 colonies randomly interact at the territory boundary a decision to fight occurs when: 1) there is a mismatch in nestmate recognition cues and 2) each ant has a recent history of high interaction rates with nestmate ants. Instead of fighting, some ants will decide to recruit more workers from the nest to the fighting location, and in this way a positive feedback mediates the development of colony wide wars. In ants, the monoamines serotonin (5-HT) and octopamine (OA) modulate many behaviors associated with colony organization and in particular behaviors associated with nestmate recognition and aggression. In this article, we develop and explore an agent-based model that conceptualizes how individual changes in brain concentrations of 5-HT and OA, paired with a simple threshold-based decision rule, can lead to the development of colony wide warfare. Model simulations do lead to the development of warfare with 91% of ants fighting at the end of 1 h. When conducting a sensitivity analysis, we determined that uncertainty in monoamine concentration signal decay influences the behavior of the model more than uncertainty in the decision-making rule or density. We conclude that pavement ant behavior is consistent with the detection of interaction rate through a single timed interval rather than integration of multiple interactions. PMID:29491915

The organization of societal conflicts by pavement ants Tetramorium caespitum: an agent-based model of amine-mediated decision making.

PubMed

Hoover, Kevin M; Bubak, Andrew N; Law, Isaac J; Yaeger, Jazmine D W; Renner, Kenneth J; Swallow, John G; Greene, Michael J

2016-06-01

Ant colonies self-organize to solve complex problems despite the simplicity of an individual ant's brain. Pavement ant Tetramorium caespitum colonies must solve the problem of defending the territory that they patrol in search of energetically rich forage. When members of 2 colonies randomly interact at the territory boundary a decision to fight occurs when: 1) there is a mismatch in nestmate recognition cues and 2) each ant has a recent history of high interaction rates with nestmate ants. Instead of fighting, some ants will decide to recruit more workers from the nest to the fighting location, and in this way a positive feedback mediates the development of colony wide wars. In ants, the monoamines serotonin (5-HT) and octopamine (OA) modulate many behaviors associated with colony organization and in particular behaviors associated with nestmate recognition and aggression. In this article, we develop and explore an agent-based model that conceptualizes how individual changes in brain concentrations of 5-HT and OA, paired with a simple threshold-based decision rule, can lead to the development of colony wide warfare. Model simulations do lead to the development of warfare with 91% of ants fighting at the end of 1 h. When conducting a sensitivity analysis, we determined that uncertainty in monoamine concentration signal decay influences the behavior of the model more than uncertainty in the decision-making rule or density. We conclude that pavement ant behavior is consistent with the detection of interaction rate through a single timed interval rather than integration of multiple interactions.

Neural net diagnostics for VLSI test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, T.; Tseng, H.; Wu, A.; Dogan, N.; Meador, J.

1990-01-01

This paper discusses the application of neural network pattern analysis algorithms to the IC fault diagnosis problem. A fault diagnostic is a decision rule combining what is known about an ideal circuit test response with information about how it is distorted by fabrication variations and measurement noise. The rule is used to detect fault existence in fabricated circuits using real test equipment. Traditional statistical techniques may be used to achieve this goal, but they can employ unrealistic a priori assumptions about measurement data. Our approach to this problem employs an adaptive pattern analysis technique based on feedforward neural networks. During training, a feedforward network automatically captures unknown sample distributions. This is important because distributions arising from the nonlinear effects of process variation can be more complex than is typically assumed. A feedforward network is also able to extract measurement features which contribute significantly to making a correct decision. Traditional feature extraction techniques employ matrix manipulations which can be particularly costly for large measurement vectors. In this paper we discuss a software system which we are developing that uses this approach. We also provide a simple example illustrating the use of the technique for fault detection in an operational amplifier.

Multi-Agent Strategic Modeling in a Specific Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gams, Matjaz; Bezek, Andraz

Multi-agent modeling in ambient intelligence (AmI) is concerned with the following task [19]: How can external observations of multi-agent systems in the ambient be used to analyze, model, and direct agent behavior? The main purpose is to obtain knowledge about acts in the environment thus enabling proper actions of the AmI systems [1]. Analysis of such systems must thus capture complex world state representation and asynchronous agent activities. Instead of studying basic numerical data, researchers often use more complex data structures, such as rules and decision trees. Some methods are extremely useful when characterizing state space, but lack the ability to clearly represent temporal state changes occurred by agent actions. To comprehend simultaneous agent actions and complex changes of state space, most often a combination of graphical and symbolical representation performs better in terms of human understanding and performance.

Cooperation and Defection in Ghetto

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kułakowski, Krzysztof

We consider ghetto as a community of people ruled against their will by an external power. Members of the community feel that their laws are broken. However, attempts to leave ghetto makes their situation worse. We discuss the relation of the ghetto inhabitants to the ruling power in context of their needs, organized according to the Maslow hierarchy. Decisions how to satisfy successive needs are undertaken in cooperation with or defection the ruling power. This issue allows to construct the tree of decisions and to adopt the pruning technique from the game theory. Dynamics of decisions can be described within the formalism of fundamental equations. The result is that the strategy of defection is stabilized by the estimated payoff.

Complexity, Testability, and Fault Analysis of Digital, Analog, and Hybrid Systems.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-09-30

E. Moret Table 2. Decision Table. Example 3 ond and third rules are inconsistent, since Raining? Yes No No both could apparently apply when it is...misclassification; a similar to be approach based on game theory was de- p.. - 0.134. scribed in SLAG71 and a third in KULK76. When the class assignments are...to a change from (X, Y)=(I,1) to (X,Y)=(O,O); the second corresponds to a change in the value of the function g=X+Y; and the third corresponds to a

Sideline coverage: when to get radiographs? A review of clinical decision tools.

PubMed

Gould, Sara J; Cardone, Dennis A; Munyak, John; Underwood, Philipp J; Gould, Stephen A

2014-05-01

Sidelines coverage presents unique challenges in the evaluation of injured athletes. Health care providers may be confronted with the question of when to obtain radiographs following an injury. Given that most sidelines coverage occurs outside the elite level, radiographs are not readily available at the time of injury, and the decision of when to send a player for radiographs must be made based on physical examination. Clinical tools have been developed to aid in identifying injuries that are likely to result in radiographically important fractures or dislocations. A search for the keywords x-ray and decision rule along with the anatomic locations shoulder, elbow, wrist, knee, and ankle was performed using the PubMed database. No limits were set regarding year of publication. We selected meta-analyses, randomized controlled trials, and survey results. Our selection focused on the largest, most well-studied published reports. We also attempted to include studies that reported the application of the rules to the field of sports medicine. Retrospective literature review. Level 4. The Ottawa Foot and Ankle Rules have been validated and implemented and are appropriate for use in both pediatric and adult populations. The Ottawa Knee Rules have been widely studied, validated, and accepted for evaluation of knee injuries. There are promising studies of decision rules for clinically important fractures of the wrist, but these studies have not been validated. The elbow has been evaluated with good outcomes via the elbow extension test, which has been validated in both single and multicenter studies. Currently, there are no reliable clinical decision tools for traumatic sports injuries to the shoulder to aid in the decision of when to obtain radiographs. Clinical decision tools have been developed to aid in the diagnosis and management of injuries commonly sustained during sporting events. Tools that have been appropriately validated in populations outside the initial study population can assist sports medicine physicians in the decision of when to get radiographs from the sidelines.

Building gene expression profile classifiers with a simple and efficient rejection option in R.

PubMed

Benso, Alfredo; Di Carlo, Stefano; Politano, Gianfranco; Savino, Alessandro; Hafeezurrehman, Hafeez

2011-01-01

The collection of gene expression profiles from DNA microarrays and their analysis with pattern recognition algorithms is a powerful technology applied to several biological problems. Common pattern recognition systems classify samples assigning them to a set of known classes. However, in a clinical diagnostics setup, novel and unknown classes (new pathologies) may appear and one must be able to reject those samples that do not fit the trained model. The problem of implementing a rejection option in a multi-class classifier has not been widely addressed in the statistical literature. Gene expression profiles represent a critical case study since they suffer from the curse of dimensionality problem that negatively reflects on the reliability of both traditional rejection models and also more recent approaches such as one-class classifiers. This paper presents a set of empirical decision rules that can be used to implement a rejection option in a set of multi-class classifiers widely used for the analysis of gene expression profiles. In particular, we focus on the classifiers implemented in the R Language and Environment for Statistical Computing (R for short in the remaining of this paper). The main contribution of the proposed rules is their simplicity, which enables an easy integration with available data analysis environments. Since in the definition of a rejection model tuning of the involved parameters is often a complex and delicate task, in this paper we exploit an evolutionary strategy to automate this process. This allows the final user to maximize the rejection accuracy with minimum manual intervention. This paper shows how the use of simple decision rules can be used to help the use of complex machine learning algorithms in real experimental setups. The proposed approach is almost completely automated and therefore a good candidate for being integrated in data analysis flows in labs where the machine learning expertise required to tune traditional classifiers might not be available.

4 CFR 22.4 - Appeal File [Rule 4].

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... contracting officer relied in making the decision, and any correspondence relating thereto; (v) Transcripts of... 4 Accounts 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Appeal File [Rule 4]. 22.4 Section 22.4 Accounts... consisting of all documents pertinent to the appeal, including: (i) The decision from which the appeal is...

29 CFR 18.103 - Rulings on evidence.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... is more probably true than not true that the error did not materially contribute to the decision or... if explicitly not relied upon by the judge in support of the decision or order. (b) Record of offer... making of an offer in question and answer form. (c) Plain error. Nothing in this rule precludes taking...

34 CFR 31.8 - Rules of decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 34 Education 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Rules of decision. 31.8 Section 31.8 Education Office of the Secretary, Department of Education SALARY OFFSET FOR FEDERAL EMPLOYEES WHO ARE INDEBTED TO THE.... (3) The act or omission of an institution of higher education at which the employee was enrolled does...

Student Expression: The Uncertain Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bathon, Justin M.; McCarthy, Martha M.

2008-01-01

On June 25, 2007, the United States Supreme Court rendered its decision in "Morse v. Frederick", a long-awaited ruling regarding student speech in public schools. For nearly twenty years, the Supreme Court had been silent on the issue while lower courts attempted to apply the rules announced in previous Supreme Court decisions. It is…

Individual versus Household Migration Decision Rules: Gender and Marital Status Differences in Intentions to Migrate in South Africa.

PubMed

Gubhaju, Bina; De Jong, Gordon F

2009-03-01

This research tests the thesis that the neoclassical micro-economic and the new household economic theoretical assumptions on migration decision-making rules are segmented by gender, marital status, and time frame of intention to migrate. Comparative tests of both theories within the same study design are relatively rare. Utilizing data from the Causes of Migration in South Africa national migration survey, we analyze how individually held "own-future" versus alternative "household well-being" migration decision rules effect the intentions to migrate of male and female adults in South Africa. Results from the gender and marital status specific logistic regressions models show consistent support for the different gender-marital status decision rule thesis. Specifically, the "maximizing one's own future" neoclassical microeconomic theory proposition is more applicable for never married men and women, the "maximizing household income" proposition for married men with short-term migration intentions, and the "reduce household risk" proposition for longer time horizon migration intentions of married men and women. Results provide new evidence on the way household strategies and individual goals jointly affect intentions to move or stay.

EDRN Breast and Ovary Cancer CVC, Study 4: Phase 3 Validation of Ovarian Cancer Serum Markers in Preclinical WHI Samples — EDRN Public Portal

Cancer.gov

The WHI offers an opportunity to evaluate ovarian cancer markers and screening decision rules developed and validated in EDRN CVC Studies 2 and 3 in women who were not being screened. It is particularly well suited to validation of risk markers, since many serum samples were drawn well before clinical diagnosis of cancer in the WHI cohorts. A strategy is needed to identify from among the general population of women over the age of 50 those at high-risk for a diagnosis of ovarian/fallopian tube cancer so that they can be referred for appropriate surveillance, imaging or surgical consult. Tools to identify high-risk women will be investigated including serum markers CA125, HE4, MSLN, and MMP7 and epidemiologic risk factors. We will optimize decision rules using stored serum samples from the WHI OS and conduct a simulated prospective validation using stored serum samples from the WHI CT. Decision rules to select women for ovarian cancer screening will be investigated as well as decision rules for use in ovarian cancer screening.

Ventral striatum and the evaluation of memory retrieval strategies.

PubMed

Badre, David; Lebrecht, Sophie; Pagliaccio, David; Long, Nicole M; Scimeca, Jason M

2014-09-01

Adaptive memory retrieval requires mechanisms of cognitive control that facilitate the recovery of goal-relevant information. Frontoparietal systems are known to support control of memory retrieval. However, the mechanisms by which the brain acquires, evaluates, and adapts retrieval strategies remain unknown. Here, we provide evidence that ventral striatal activation tracks the success of a retrieval strategy and correlates with subsequent reliance on that strategy. Human participants were scanned with fMRI while performing a lexical decision task. A rule was provided that indicated the likely semantic category of a target word given the category of a preceding prime. Reliance on the rule improved decision-making, as estimated within a drift diffusion framework. Ventral striatal activation tracked the benefit that relying on the rule had on decision-making. Moreover, activation in ventral striatum correlated with a participant's subsequent reliance on the rule. Taken together, these results support a role for ventral striatum in learning and evaluating declarative retrieval strategies.

Visual Categorization of Natural Movies by Rats

PubMed Central

Vinken, Kasper; Vermaercke, Ben

2014-01-01

Visual categorization of complex, natural stimuli has been studied for some time in human and nonhuman primates. Recent interest in the rodent as a model for visual perception, including higher-level functional specialization, leads to the question of how rodents would perform on a categorization task using natural stimuli. To answer this question, rats were trained in a two-alternative forced choice task to discriminate movies containing rats from movies containing other objects and from scrambled movies (ordinate-level categorization). Subsequently, transfer to novel, previously unseen stimuli was tested, followed by a series of control probes. The results show that the animals are capable of acquiring a decision rule by abstracting common features from natural movies to generalize categorization to new stimuli. Control probes demonstrate that they did not use single low-level features, such as motion energy or (local) luminance. Significant generalization was even present with stationary snapshots from untrained movies. The variability within and between training and test stimuli, the complexity of natural movies, and the control experiments and analyses all suggest that a more high-level rule based on more complex stimulus features than local luminance-based cues was used to classify the novel stimuli. In conclusion, natural stimuli can be used to probe ordinate-level categorization in rats. PMID:25100598

Ethical psychiatry in an uncertain world: conversations and parallel truths.

PubMed

Carson, Alexander M; Lepping, Peter

2009-06-25

Psychiatric practice is often faced with complex situations that seem to pose serious moral dilemmas for practitioners. Methods for solving these dilemmas have included the development of more objective rules to guide the practitioner such as utilitarianism and deontology. A more modern variant on this objective model has been 'Principlism' where 4 mid level rules are used to help solve these complex problems. In opposition to this, there has recently been a focus on more subjective criteria for resolving complex moral dilemmas. In particular, virtue ethics has been posited as a more sensitive method for helping doctors to reason their way through difficult ethical issues. Here the focus is on the character traits of the practitioner. Bloch and Green advocated another way whereby more objective methods such as Principlism and virtue ethics are combined to produce what they considered sound moral reasoning in psychiatrists. This paper points out some difficulties with this approach and instead suggests that a better model of ethical judgment could be developed through the use of narratives or stories. This idea puts equal prima facie value on the patient's and the psychiatrist's version of the dilemma they are faced with. It has the potential to lead to a more genuine empathy and reflective decision-making.

78 FR 27263 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; BOX Options Exchange LLC; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-09

... Which Mini Options Will Trade as a Complex Order Pursuant to BOX Rule 7240 May 3, 2013. Pursuant to... Change The Exchange proposes to amend BOX Rule 7240 (Complex Orders). The text of the proposed rule... provide for the manner in which Mini Options will trade as a Complex Order pursuant to BOX Rule [[Page...

Making sense of information in noisy networks: human communication, gossip, and distortion.

PubMed

Laidre, Mark E; Lamb, Alex; Shultz, Susanne; Olsen, Megan

2013-01-21

Information from others can be unreliable. Humans nevertheless act on such information, including gossip, to make various social calculations, thus raising the question of whether individuals can sort through social information to identify what is, in fact, true. Inspired by empirical literature on people's decision-making when considering gossip, we built an agent-based simulation model to examine how well simple decision rules could make sense of information as it propagated through a network. Our simulations revealed that a minimalistic decision-rule 'Bit-wise mode' - which compared information from multiple sources and then sought a consensus majority for each component bit within the message - was consistently the most successful at converging upon the truth. This decision rule attained high relative fitness even in maximally noisy networks, composed entirely of nodes that distorted the message. The rule was also superior to other decision rules regardless of its frequency in the population. Simulations carried out with variable agent memory constraints, different numbers of observers who initiated information propagation, and a variety of network types suggested that the single most important factor in making sense of information was the number of independent sources that agents could consult. Broadly, our model suggests that despite the distortion information is subject to in the real world, it is nevertheless possible to make sense of it based on simple Darwinian computations that integrate multiple sources. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Combined rule extraction and feature elimination in supervised classification.

PubMed

Liu, Sheng; Patel, Ronak Y; Daga, Pankaj R; Liu, Haining; Fu, Gang; Doerksen, Robert J; Chen, Yixin; Wilkins, Dawn E

2012-09-01

There are a vast number of biology related research problems involving a combination of multiple sources of data to achieve a better understanding of the underlying problems. It is important to select and interpret the most important information from these sources. Thus it will be beneficial to have a good algorithm to simultaneously extract rules and select features for better interpretation of the predictive model. We propose an efficient algorithm, Combined Rule Extraction and Feature Elimination (CRF), based on 1-norm regularized random forests. CRF simultaneously extracts a small number of rules generated by random forests and selects important features. We applied CRF to several drug activity prediction and microarray data sets. CRF is capable of producing performance comparable with state-of-the-art prediction algorithms using a small number of decision rules. Some of the decision rules are biologically significant.

Prediction of vesicoureteral reflux after a first febrile urinary tract infection in children: validation of a clinical decision rule.

PubMed

Leroy, S; Marc, E; Adamsbaum, C; Gendrel, D; Bréart, G; Chalumeau, M

2006-03-01

To test the reproducibility of a highly sensitive clinical decision rule proposed to predict vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) after a first febrile urinary tract infection in children. This rule combines clinical (family history of uropathology, male gender, young age), biological (raised C reactive protein), and radiological (urinary tract dilation on renal ultrasound) predictors in a score, and provides 100% sensitivity. A retrospective hospital based cohort study included all children, 1 month to 4 years old, with a first febrile urinary tract infection. The sensitivities and specificities of the rule at the two previously proposed score thresholds (< or =0 and < or =5) to predict respectively, all-grade or grade > or =3 VUR, were calculated. A total of 149 children were included. VUR prevalence was 25%. The rule yielded 100% sensitivity and 3% specificity for all-grade VUR, and 93% sensitivity and 13% specificity for grade > or =3 VUR. Some methodological weaknesses explain this lack of reproducibility. The reproducibility of the previously proposed decision rule was poor and its potential contribution to clinical management of children with febrile urinary tract infection seems to be modest.

Prediction of vesicoureteral reflux after a first febrile urinary tract infection in children: validation of a clinical decision rule

PubMed Central

Leroy, S; Marc, E; Adamsbaum, C; Gendrel, D; Bréart, G; Chalumeau, M

2006-01-01

Aims To test the reproducibility of a highly sensitive clinical decision rule proposed to predict vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) after a first febrile urinary tract infection in children. This rule combines clinical (family history of uropathology, male gender, young age), biological (raised C reactive protein), and radiological (urinary tract dilation on renal ultrasound) predictors in a score, and provides 100% sensitivity. Methods A retrospective hospital based cohort study included all children, 1 month to 4 years old, with a first febrile urinary tract infection. The sensitivities and specificities of the rule at the two previously proposed score thresholds (⩽0 and ⩽5) to predict respectively, all‐grade or grade ⩾3 VUR, were calculated. Results A total of 149 children were included. VUR prevalence was 25%. The rule yielded 100% sensitivity and 3% specificity for all‐grade VUR, and 93% sensitivity and 13% specificity for grade ⩾3 VUR. Some methodological weaknesses explain this lack of reproducibility. Conclusions The reproducibility of the previously proposed decision rule was poor and its potential contribution to clinical management of children with febrile urinary tract infection seems to be modest. PMID:15890693

Age differences in understanding precedent-setting decisions and authorities' responses to violations of deontic rules.

PubMed

Klaczynski, Paul A

2011-05-01

To examine age trends in precedent-setting decisions and the effects of these decisions on perceptions of authorities, preadolescents and adolescents were presented with deontic rule infractions that occurred in the absence or presence of mitigating circumstances. In Study 1, in the absence of mitigating circumstances, adolescents recommended punishing rule violations more than preadolescents; when mitigating circumstances were present, adolescents recommended punishing infractions less than preadolescents. In Study 2, before and after receiving information that authorities had punished or permitted rule violations, participants indicated their beliefs in authority legitimacy, rule strength, and rule deterrence value. In the absence of mitigating circumstances, beliefs strengthened when infractions were punished and beliefs weakened when infractions were permitted. When mitigating circumstances were present and authorities punished violations, preadolescents' legitimacy and deterrence beliefs strengthened. Adolescents' deterrence beliefs strengthened, but their beliefs in authority legitimacy weakened. When justifiable infractions were permitted, preadolescents' legitimacy and deterrence beliefs weakened, whereas adolescents' beliefs strengthened. Discussion focuses on age differences in legitimacy beliefs and understanding the consequences of setting precedents and on the relevance of the findings to theories of deontic reasoning, moral judgments, and epistemological development. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A prospective observational study to assess the diagnostic accuracy of clinical decision rules for children presenting to emergency departments after head injuries (protocol): the Australasian Paediatric Head Injury Rules Study (APHIRST).

PubMed

Babl, Franz E; Lyttle, Mark D; Bressan, Silvia; Borland, Meredith; Phillips, Natalie; Kochar, Amit; Dalziel, Stuart R; Dalton, Sarah; Cheek, John A; Furyk, Jeremy; Gilhotra, Yuri; Neutze, Jocelyn; Ward, Brenton; Donath, Susan; Jachno, Kim; Crowe, Louise; Williams, Amanda; Oakley, Ed

2014-06-13

Head injuries in children are responsible for a large number of emergency department visits. Failure to identify a clinically significant intracranial injury in a timely fashion may result in long term neurodisability and death. Whilst cranial computed tomography (CT) provides rapid and definitive identification of intracranial injuries, it is resource intensive and associated with radiation induced cancer. Evidence based head injury clinical decision rules have been derived to aid physicians in identifying patients at risk of having a clinically significant intracranial injury. Three rules have been identified as being of high quality and accuracy: the Canadian Assessment of Tomography for Childhood Head Injury (CATCH) from Canada, the Children's Head Injury Algorithm for the Prediction of Important Clinical Events (CHALICE) from the UK, and the prediction rule for the identification of children at very low risk of clinically important traumatic brain injury developed by the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN) from the USA. This study aims to prospectively validate and compare the performance accuracy of these three clinical decision rules when applied outside the derivation setting. This study is a prospective observational study of children aged 0 to less than 18 years presenting to 10 emergency departments within the Paediatric Research in Emergency Departments International Collaborative (PREDICT) research network in Australia and New Zealand after head injuries of any severity. Predictor variables identified in CATCH, CHALICE and PECARN clinical decision rules will be collected. Patients will be managed as per the treating clinicians at the participating hospitals. All patients not undergoing cranial CT will receive a follow up call 14 to 90 days after the injury. Outcome data collected will include results of cranial CTs (if performed) and details of admission, intubation, neurosurgery and death. The performance accuracy of each of the rules will be assessed using rule specific outcomes and inclusion and exclusion criteria. This study will allow the simultaneous comparative application and validation of three major paediatric head injury clinical decision rules outside their derivation setting. The study is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR)- ACTRN12614000463673 (registered 2 May 2014).

Evaluation of decision rules for identifying low bone density in postmenopausal African-American women.

PubMed Central

Wallace, Lorraine Silver; Ballard, Joyce E.; Holiday, David; Turner, Lori W.; Keenum, Amy J.; Pearman, Cynthia M.

2004-01-01

OBJECTIVE: While African-American women tend to have greater bone mineral density (BMD) than caucasian women, they are still at risk of developing osteoporosis later in life. Clinical decision rules (i.e., algorithms) have been developed to assist clinicians identify women at greatest risk of low BMD. However, such tools have only been validated in caucasian and Asian populations. Accordingly, the objective of this study was to compare the performance of five clinical decision rules in identifying postmenopausal African-American women at greatest risk for low femoral BMD. METHODOLOGY: One hundred-seventy-four (n=174) postmenopausal African-American women completed a valid and reliable oral questionnaire to assess lifestyle characteristics, and completed height and weight measures. BMD at the femoral neck was measured via dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for identifying African-American women with low BMD (T-Score < or = -2.0 SD) using five clinical decision rules: Age, Body Size, No Estrogen (ABONE), Osteoporosis Risk Assessment Instrument (ORAI), Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool (OST), Simple Calculated Osteoporosis Risk Estimation (SCORE), and body weight less than 70 kg. RESULTS: Approximately 30% of African-American women had low BMD, half of whom had osteoporosis (BMD T-Score < or = -2.5 SD). Sensitivity for identifying women with a low BMD (T-Score < or = -2.0 SD) ranged from 65.57-83.61%, while specificity ranged from 53.85-78.85%. Positive predictive values ranged from 80.95-87.91%, while negative predictive values ranged from 48.44-58.33%. CONCLUSION: Our data suggest that the clinical decision rules analyzed in this study have some usefulness for identifying postmenopausal African-American women with low BMD. However, there is a need to establish cut-points for these clinical decision rules in a larger, more diverse sample of African-American women. PMID:15040510

A study to derive a clinical decision rule for triage of emergency department patients with chest pain: design and methodology

PubMed Central

Hess, Erik P; Wells, George A; Jaffe, Allan; Stiell, Ian G

2008-01-01

Background Chest pain is the second most common chief complaint in North American emergency departments. Data from the U.S. suggest that 2.1% of patients with acute myocardial infarction and 2.3% of patients with unstable angina are misdiagnosed, with slightly higher rates reported in a recent Canadian study (4.6% and 6.4%, respectively). Information obtained from the history, 12-lead ECG, and a single set of cardiac enzymes is unable to identify patients who are safe for early discharge with sufficient sensitivity. The 2007 ACC/AHA guidelines for UA/NSTEMI do not identify patients at low risk for adverse cardiac events who can be safely discharged without provocative testing. As a result large numbers of low risk patients are triaged to chest pain observation units and undergo provocative testing, at significant cost to the healthcare system. Clinical decision rules use clinical findings (history, physical exam, test results) to suggest a diagnostic or therapeutic course of action. Currently no methodologically robust clinical decision rule identifies patients safe for early discharge. Methods/design The goal of this study is to derive a clinical decision rule which will allow emergency physicians to accurately identify patients with chest pain who are safe for early discharge. The study will utilize a prospective cohort design. Standardized clinical variables will be collected on all patients at least 25 years of age complaining of chest pain prior to provocative testing. Variables strongly associated with the composite outcome acute myocardial infarction, revascularization, or death will be further analyzed with multivariable analysis to derive the clinical rule. Specific aims are to: i) apply standardized clinical assessments to patients with chest pain, incorporating results of early cardiac testing; ii) determine the inter-observer reliability of the clinical information; iii) determine the statistical association between the clinical findings and the composite outcome; and iv) use multivariable analysis to derive a highly sensitive clinical decision rule to guide triage decisions. Discussion The study will derive a highly sensitive clinical decision rule to identify low risk patients safe for early discharge. This will improve patient care, lower healthcare costs, and enhance flow in our busy and overcrowded emergency departments. PMID:18254973

Fitness to stand trial under international criminal law: the historical context.

PubMed

Freckelton, Ian; Karagiannakis, Magda

2014-06-01

Decision-making about fitness to stand trial and the consequences of a finding of unfitness are fundamental to the integrity of any criminal justice system. They create thresholds for when mentally and physically unwell people are mandated to participate in criminal proceedings and they address the outcomes of such decisions for unwell accused persons. The jurisprudence relating to fitness to stand trial under international criminal law has particular challenges and complexities. The origins of contemporary controversies and the bases for modern decisions lie in rulings by the Nuremberg and Tokyo tribunals in the immediate aftermath of the Second World War. The decisions relating to Gustav Krupp, Rudolf Hess, Julius Streicher and Shumei Okawa wrestled with issues that have since recurred in respect of how trial systems should respond to unwellness going to the heart of whether persons can participate meaningfully in their own trials but dealing too with the temptation for persons accused of matters as serious as crimes against humanity and genocide to malinger, exaggerate symptomatology and to generate delays for strategic objectives.

Collaborative Brain-Computer Interface for Aiding Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Poli, Riccardo; Valeriani, Davide; Cinel, Caterina

2014-01-01

We look at the possibility of integrating the percepts from multiple non-communicating observers as a means of achieving better joint perception and better group decisions. Our approach involves the combination of a brain-computer interface with human behavioural responses. To test ideas in controlled conditions, we asked observers to perform a simple matching task involving the rapid sequential presentation of pairs of visual patterns and the subsequent decision as whether the two patterns in a pair were the same or different. We recorded the response times of observers as well as a neural feature which predicts incorrect decisions and, thus, indirectly indicates the confidence of the decisions made by the observers. We then built a composite neuro-behavioural feature which optimally combines the two measures. For group decisions, we uses a majority rule and three rules which weigh the decisions of each observer based on response times and our neural and neuro-behavioural features. Results indicate that the integration of behavioural responses and neural features can significantly improve accuracy when compared with the majority rule. An analysis of event-related potentials indicates that substantial differences are present in the proximity of the response for correct and incorrect trials, further corroborating the idea of using hybrids of brain-computer interfaces and traditional strategies for improving decision making. PMID:25072739

Lung Cancer Assistant: a hybrid clinical decision support application for lung cancer care.

PubMed

Sesen, M Berkan; Peake, Michael D; Banares-Alcantara, Rene; Tse, Donald; Kadir, Timor; Stanley, Roz; Gleeson, Fergus; Brady, Michael

2014-09-06

Multidisciplinary team (MDT) meetings are becoming the model of care for cancer patients worldwide. While MDTs have improved the quality of cancer care, the meetings impose substantial time pressure on the members, who generally attend several such MDTs. We describe Lung Cancer Assistant (LCA), a clinical decision support (CDS) prototype designed to assist the experts in the treatment selection decisions in the lung cancer MDTs. A novel feature of LCA is its ability to provide rule-based and probabilistic decision support within a single platform. The guideline-based CDS is based on clinical guideline rules, while the probabilistic CDS is based on a Bayesian network trained on the English Lung Cancer Audit Database (LUCADA). We assess rule-based and probabilistic recommendations based on their concordances with the treatments recorded in LUCADA. Our results reveal that the guideline rule-based recommendations perform well in simulating the recorded treatments with exact and partial concordance rates of 0.57 and 0.79, respectively. On the other hand, the exact and partial concordance rates achieved with probabilistic results are relatively poorer with 0.27 and 0.76. However, probabilistic decision support fulfils a complementary role in providing accurate survival estimations. Compared to recorded treatments, both CDS approaches promote higher resection rates and multimodality treatments.

Flu Diagnosis System Using Jaccard Index and Rough Set Approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efendi, Riswan; Azah Samsudin, Noor; Mat Deris, Mustafa; Guan Ting, Yip

2018-04-01

Jaccard index and rough set approaches have been frequently implemented in decision support systems with various domain applications. Both approaches are appropriate to be considered for categorical data analysis. This paper presents the applications of sets operations for flu diagnosis systems based on two different approaches, such as, Jaccard index and rough set. These two different approaches are established using set operations concept, namely intersection and subset. The step-by-step procedure is demonstrated from each approach in diagnosing flu system. The similarity and dissimilarity indexes between conditional symptoms and decision are measured using Jaccard approach. Additionally, the rough set is used to build decision support rules. Moreover, the decision support rules are established using redundant data analysis and elimination of unclassified elements. A number data sets is considered to attempt the step-by-step procedure from each approach. The result has shown that rough set can be used to support Jaccard approaches in establishing decision support rules. Additionally, Jaccard index is better approach for investigating the worst condition of patients. While, the definitely and possibly patients with or without flu can be determined using rough set approach. The rules may improve the performance of medical diagnosis systems. Therefore, inexperienced doctors and patients are easier in preliminary flu diagnosis.

Orthogonal search-based rule extraction for modelling the decision to transfuse.

PubMed

Etchells, T A; Harrison, M J

2006-04-01

Data from an audit relating to transfusion decisions during intermediate or major surgery were analysed to determine the strengths of certain factors in the decision making process. The analysis, using orthogonal search-based rule extraction (OSRE) from a trained neural network, demonstrated that the risk of tissue hypoxia (ROTH) assessed using a 100-mm visual analogue scale, the haemoglobin value (Hb) and the presence or absence of on-going haemorrhage (OGH) were able to reproduce the transfusion decisions with a joint specificity of 0.96 and sensitivity of 0.93 and a positive predictive value of 0.9. The rules indicating transfusion were: 1. ROTH > 32 mm and Hb < 94 g x l(-1); 2. ROTH > 13 mm and Hb < 87 g x l(-1); 3. ROTH > 38 mm, Hb < 102 g x l(-1) and OGH; 4. Hb < 78 g x l(-1).

Employing clinical decision support to attain our strategic goal: the safe care of the surgical patient.

PubMed

Magid, Steven K; Pancoast, Paul E; Fields, Theodore; Bradley, Diane G; Williams, Robert B

2007-01-01

Clinical decision support can be employed to increase patient safety and improve workflow efficiencies for physicians and other healthcare providers. Physician input into the design and deployment of clinical decision support systems can increase the utility of the alerts and reduce the likelihood of "alert fatigue." The Hospital for Special Surgery is a 146-bed orthopedic facility that performs approximately 18,000 surgeries a year Efficient work processes are a necessity. The facility began implementing a new electronic health record system in June 2005 and plan to go live in summer 2007. This article reports on some of the clinical decision support rules and alerts being incorporated into the facility's system in the following categories--high-risk, high-frequency scenarios, rules that provide efficiencies and value from the presciber perspective, and rules that relate to patient safety.

Performance Evaluation of Fusing Protected Fingerprint Minutiae Templates on the Decision Level

PubMed Central

Yang, Bian; Busch, Christoph; de Groot, Koen; Xu, Haiyun; Veldhuis, Raymond N. J.

2012-01-01

In a biometric authentication system using protected templates, a pseudonymous identifier is the part of a protected template that can be directly compared. Each compared pair of pseudonymous identifiers results in a decision testing whether both identifiers are derived from the same biometric characteristic. Compared to an unprotected system, most existing biometric template protection methods cause to a certain extent degradation in biometric performance. Fusion is therefore a promising way to enhance the biometric performance in template-protected biometric systems. Compared to feature level fusion and score level fusion, decision level fusion has not only the least fusion complexity, but also the maximum interoperability across different biometric features, template protection and recognition algorithms, templates formats, and comparison score rules. However, performance improvement via decision level fusion is not obvious. It is influenced by both the dependency and the performance gap among the conducted tests for fusion. We investigate in this paper several fusion scenarios (multi-sample, multi-instance, multi-sensor, multi-algorithm, and their combinations) on the binary decision level, and evaluate their biometric performance and fusion efficiency on a multi-sensor fingerprint database with 71,994 samples. PMID:22778583

How power influences moral thinking.

PubMed

Lammers, Joris; Stapel, Diederik A

2009-08-01

The authors conducted 5 studies to test the idea that both thinking about and having power affects the way in which people resolve moral dilemmas. It is shown that high power increases the use of rule-based (deontological) moral thinking styles, whereas low power increases reliance on outcome-based (consequentialist) moral thinking. Stated differently, in determining whether an act is right or wrong, the powerful focus on whether rules and principles are violated, whereas the powerless focus on the consequences. For this reason, the powerful are also more inclined to stick to the rules, irrespective of whether this has positive or negative effects, whereas the powerless are more inclined to make exceptions. The first 3 experiments show that thinking about power increases rule-based thinking and decreases outcome-based thinking in participants' moral decision making. A 4th experiment shows the mediating role of moral orientation in the effect of power on moral decisions. The 5th experiment demonstrates the role of self-interest by showing that the power-moral link is reversed when rule-based decisions threaten participants' own self-interests.

Comparative study of multimodal biometric recognition by fusion of iris and fingerprint.

PubMed

Benaliouche, Houda; Touahria, Mohamed

2014-01-01

This research investigates the comparative performance from three different approaches for multimodal recognition of combined iris and fingerprints: classical sum rule, weighted sum rule, and fuzzy logic method. The scores from the different biometric traits of iris and fingerprint are fused at the matching score and the decision levels. The scores combination approach is used after normalization of both scores using the min-max rule. Our experimental results suggest that the fuzzy logic method for the matching scores combinations at the decision level is the best followed by the classical weighted sum rule and the classical sum rule in order. The performance evaluation of each method is reported in terms of matching time, error rates, and accuracy after doing exhaustive tests on the public CASIA-Iris databases V1 and V2 and the FVC 2004 fingerprint database. Experimental results prior to fusion and after fusion are presented followed by their comparison with related works in the current literature. The fusion by fuzzy logic decision mimics the human reasoning in a soft and simple way and gives enhanced results.

Comparative Study of Multimodal Biometric Recognition by Fusion of Iris and Fingerprint

PubMed Central

Benaliouche, Houda; Touahria, Mohamed

2014-01-01

This research investigates the comparative performance from three different approaches for multimodal recognition of combined iris and fingerprints: classical sum rule, weighted sum rule, and fuzzy logic method. The scores from the different biometric traits of iris and fingerprint are fused at the matching score and the decision levels. The scores combination approach is used after normalization of both scores using the min-max rule. Our experimental results suggest that the fuzzy logic method for the matching scores combinations at the decision level is the best followed by the classical weighted sum rule and the classical sum rule in order. The performance evaluation of each method is reported in terms of matching time, error rates, and accuracy after doing exhaustive tests on the public CASIA-Iris databases V1 and V2 and the FVC 2004 fingerprint database. Experimental results prior to fusion and after fusion are presented followed by their comparison with related works in the current literature. The fusion by fuzzy logic decision mimics the human reasoning in a soft and simple way and gives enhanced results. PMID:24605065

75 FR 57188 - Rhode Island: Final Authorization of State Hazardous Waste Management Program Revisions

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-20

... regarding EPA's Zinc Fertilizer Rule in a separate final rule (following the proposed rule) as it... the Zinc Fertilizer Rule. Today's action responds to that comment but does not agree with it and, thus, finalizes the Agency's decision to authorize Rhode Island for EPA's Zinc Fertilizer Rule. In addition, the...

Differentiated Jurisprudence? Examining Students' Fourth Amendment Court Decisions by Region of Country

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Torres, Mario S., Jr.

2012-01-01

This study examined federal and state court decisions related to student Fourth Amendment rights following the "New Jersey v. T.L.O." ruling in 1985. There has been minimal research in judicial treatment of students' Fourth Amendment rights across regions of the country and less to what extent regional rulings implicitly or explicitly…

An Intelligent Decision Support System for Workforce Forecast

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

ARIMA ) model to forecast the demand for construction skills in Hong Kong. This model was based...Decision Trees ARIMA Rule Based Forecasting Segmentation Forecasting Regression Analysis Simulation Modeling Input-Output Models LP and NLP Markovian...data • When results are needed as a set of easily interpretable rules 4.1.4 ARIMA Auto-regressive, integrated, moving-average ( ARIMA ) models

Brain Regions Involved in the Learning and Application of Reward Rules in a Two-Deck Gambling Task

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartstra, E.; Oldenburg, J. F. E.; Van Leijenhorst, L.; Rombouts, S. A. R. B.; Crone, E. A.

2010-01-01

Decision-making involves the ability to choose between competing actions that are associated with uncertain benefits and penalties. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), which mimics real-life decision-making, involves learning a reward-punishment rule over multiple trials. Patients with damage to ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC) show deficits…

EDRN Breast and Ovary Cancer CVC, Study 3: Phase 3 Validation of screening decision rules in preclinical UKCTOCS serial samples — EDRN Public Portal

Cancer.gov

We will collaborate with investigators from University College London to test a screening decision rule in preclinical serial samples from the U.K. Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) to learn if the panel can do better than CA125 alone. The UKCTOCS is an ideal setting for retrospective validation of an early detection marker panel and decision rule because it offers serial samples collected annually and use of imaging in women with rising CA125. Multi-modal strategies using serum markers HE4, MSLN, MMP7, and CA125 will be compared to strategies relying exclusively on CA125 and transvaginal sonography (TVS).

Decision rules for unbiased inventory estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Argentiero, P. D.; Koch, D.

1979-01-01

An efficient and accurate procedure for estimating inventories from remote sensing scenes is presented. In place of the conventional and expensive full dimensional Bayes decision rule, a one-dimensional feature extraction and classification technique was employed. It is shown that this efficient decision rule can be used to develop unbiased inventory estimates and that for large sample sizes typical of satellite derived remote sensing scenes, resulting accuracies are comparable or superior to more expensive alternative procedures. Mathematical details of the procedure are provided in the body of the report and in the appendix. Results of a numerical simulation of the technique using statistics obtained from an observed LANDSAT scene are included. The simulation demonstrates the effectiveness of the technique in computing accurate inventory estimates.

Modelling elderly cardiac patients decision making using Cognitive Work Analysis: identifying requirements for patient decision aids.

PubMed

Dhukaram, Anandhi Vivekanandan; Baber, Chris

2015-06-01

Patients make various healthcare decisions on a daily basis. Such day-to-day decision making can have significant consequences on their own health, treatment, care, and costs. While decision aids (DAs) provide effective support in enhancing patient's decision making, to date there have been few studies examining patient's decision making process or exploring how the understanding of such decision processes can aid in extracting requirements for the design of DAs. This paper applies Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA) to analyse patient's decision making in order to inform requirements for supporting self-care decision making. This study uses focus groups to elicit information from elderly cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients concerning a range of decision situations they face on a daily basis. Specifically, the focus groups addressed issues related to the decision making of CVD in terms of medication compliance, pain, diet and exercise. The results of these focus groups are used to develop high level views using CWA. CWA framework decomposes the complex decision making problem to inform three approaches to DA design: one design based on high level requirements; one based on a normative model of decision-making for patients; and the third based on a range of heuristics that patients seem to use. CWA helps in extracting and synthesising decision making from different perspectives: decision processes, work organisation, patient competencies and strategies used in decision making. As decision making can be influenced by human behaviour like skills, rules and knowledge, it is argued that patients require support to different types of decision making. This paper also provides insights for designers in using CWA framework for the design of effective DAs to support patients in self-management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Ethical principles and approaches to health systems governance research: conceptual and methodological implications].

PubMed

Flores, Walter

2010-01-01

Governance refers to decision-making processes in which power relationships and actors and institutions' particular interests converge. Situations of consensus and conflict are inherent to such processes. Furthermore, decision-making happens within a framework of ethical principles, motivations and incentives which could be explicit or implicit. Health systems in most Latin-American and Caribbean countries take the principles of equity, solidarity, social participation and the right to health as their guiding principles; such principles must thus rule governance processes. However, this is not always the case and this is where the importance of investigating governance in health systems lies. Making advances in investigating governance involves conceptual and methodological implications. Clarifying and integrating normative and analytical approaches is relevant at conceptual level as both are necessary for an approach seeking to investigate and understand social phenomena's complexity. In relation to methodological level, there is a need to expand the range of variables, sources of information and indicators for studying decision-making aimed to greater equity, health citizenship and public policy efficiency.

77 FR 65754 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; C2 Options Exchange, Incorporated; Order Approving Proposed Rule...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-30

... Organizations; C2 Options Exchange, Incorporated; Order Approving Proposed Rule Change Relating to the Complex...,\\2\\ a proposed rule change to modify C2 Rule 6.13(c), ``Process for Complex Order RFR Auction,'' to... at the start of a Complex Order Auction (``COA''); and (ii) require responses to an RFR message...

Simply criminal: predicting burglars' occupancy decisions with a simple heuristic.

PubMed

Snook, Brent; Dhami, Mandeep K; Kavanagh, Jennifer M

2011-08-01

Rational choice theories of criminal decision making assume that offenders weight and integrate multiple cues when making decisions (i.e., are compensatory). We tested this assumption by comparing how well a compensatory strategy called Franklin's Rule captured burglars' decision policies regarding residence occupancy compared to a non-compensatory strategy (i.e., Matching Heuristic). Forty burglars each decided on the occupancy of 20 randomly selected photographs of residences (for which actual occupancy was known when the photo was taken). Participants also provided open-ended reports on the cues that influenced their decisions in each case, and then rated the importance of eight cues (e.g., deadbolt visible) over all decisions. Burglars predicted occupancy beyond chance levels. The Matching Heuristic was a significantly better predictor of burglars' decisions than Franklin's Rule, and cue use in the Matching Heuristic better corresponded to the cue ecological validities in the environment than cue use in Franklin's Rule. The most important cue in burglars' models was also the most ecologically valid or predictive of actual occupancy (i.e., vehicle present). The majority of burglars correctly identified the most important cue in their models, and the open-ended technique showed greater correspondence between self-reported and captured cue use than the rating over decision technique. Our findings support a limited rationality perspective to understanding criminal decision making, and have implications for crime prevention.

AdaBoost-based algorithm for network intrusion detection.

PubMed

Hu, Weiming; Hu, Wei; Maybank, Steve

2008-04-01

Network intrusion detection aims at distinguishing the attacks on the Internet from normal use of the Internet. It is an indispensable part of the information security system. Due to the variety of network behaviors and the rapid development of attack fashions, it is necessary to develop fast machine-learning-based intrusion detection algorithms with high detection rates and low false-alarm rates. In this correspondence, we propose an intrusion detection algorithm based on the AdaBoost algorithm. In the algorithm, decision stumps are used as weak classifiers. The decision rules are provided for both categorical and continuous features. By combining the weak classifiers for continuous features and the weak classifiers for categorical features into a strong classifier, the relations between these two different types of features are handled naturally, without any forced conversions between continuous and categorical features. Adaptable initial weights and a simple strategy for avoiding overfitting are adopted to improve the performance of the algorithm. Experimental results show that our algorithm has low computational complexity and error rates, as compared with algorithms of higher computational complexity, as tested on the benchmark sample data.

The expert explorer: a tool for hospital data visualization and adverse drug event rules validation.

PubMed

Băceanu, Adrian; Atasiei, Ionuţ; Chazard, Emmanuel; Leroy, Nicolas

2009-01-01

An important part of adverse drug events (ADEs) detection is the validation of the clinical cases and the assessment of the decision rules to detect ADEs. For that purpose, a software called "Expert Explorer" has been designed by Ideea Advertising. Anonymized datasets have been extracted from hospitals into a common repository. The tool has 3 main features. (1) It can display hospital stays in a visual and comprehensive way (diagnoses, drugs, lab results, etc.) using tables and pretty charts. (2) It allows designing and executing dashboards in order to generate knowledge about ADEs. (3) It finally allows uploading decision rules obtained from data mining. Experts can then review the rules, the hospital stays that match the rules, and finally give their advice thanks to specialized forms. Then the rules can be validated, invalidated, or improved (knowledge elicitation phase).

Sideline Coverage

PubMed Central

Gould, Sara J.; Cardone, Dennis A.; Munyak, John; Underwood, Philipp J.; Gould, Stephen A.

2014-01-01

Context: Sidelines coverage presents unique challenges in the evaluation of injured athletes. Health care providers may be confronted with the question of when to obtain radiographs following an injury. Given that most sidelines coverage occurs outside the elite level, radiographs are not readily available at the time of injury, and the decision of when to send a player for radiographs must be made based on physical examination. Clinical tools have been developed to aid in identifying injuries that are likely to result in radiographically important fractures or dislocations. Evidence Acquisition: A search for the keywords x-ray and decision rule along with the anatomic locations shoulder, elbow, wrist, knee, and ankle was performed using the PubMed database. No limits were set regarding year of publication. We selected meta-analyses, randomized controlled trials, and survey results. Our selection focused on the largest, most well-studied published reports. We also attempted to include studies that reported the application of the rules to the field of sports medicine. Study Design: Retrospective literature review. Level of Evidence: Level 4. Results: The Ottawa Foot and Ankle Rules have been validated and implemented and are appropriate for use in both pediatric and adult populations. The Ottawa Knee Rules have been widely studied, validated, and accepted for evaluation of knee injuries. There are promising studies of decision rules for clinically important fractures of the wrist, but these studies have not been validated. The elbow has been evaluated with good outcomes via the elbow extension test, which has been validated in both single and multicenter studies. Currently, there are no reliable clinical decision tools for traumatic sports injuries to the shoulder to aid in the decision of when to obtain radiographs. Conclusion: Clinical decision tools have been developed to aid in the diagnosis and management of injuries commonly sustained during sporting events. Tools that have been appropriately validated in populations outside the initial study population can assist sports medicine physicians in the decision of when to get radiographs from the sidelines. PMID:24790698

The drift diffusion model as the choice rule in reinforcement learning.

PubMed

Pedersen, Mads Lund; Frank, Michael J; Biele, Guido

2017-08-01

Current reinforcement-learning models often assume simplified decision processes that do not fully reflect the dynamic complexities of choice processes. Conversely, sequential-sampling models of decision making account for both choice accuracy and response time, but assume that decisions are based on static decision values. To combine these two computational models of decision making and learning, we implemented reinforcement-learning models in which the drift diffusion model describes the choice process, thereby capturing both within- and across-trial dynamics. To exemplify the utility of this approach, we quantitatively fit data from a common reinforcement-learning paradigm using hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation, and compared model variants to determine whether they could capture the effects of stimulant medication in adult patients with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The model with the best relative fit provided a good description of the learning process, choices, and response times. A parameter recovery experiment showed that the hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach enabled accurate estimation of the model parameters. The model approach described here, using simultaneous estimation of reinforcement-learning and drift diffusion model parameters, shows promise for revealing new insights into the cognitive and neural mechanisms of learning and decision making, as well as the alteration of such processes in clinical groups.

The drift diffusion model as the choice rule in reinforcement learning

PubMed Central

Frank, Michael J.

2017-01-01

Current reinforcement-learning models often assume simplified decision processes that do not fully reflect the dynamic complexities of choice processes. Conversely, sequential-sampling models of decision making account for both choice accuracy and response time, but assume that decisions are based on static decision values. To combine these two computational models of decision making and learning, we implemented reinforcement-learning models in which the drift diffusion model describes the choice process, thereby capturing both within- and across-trial dynamics. To exemplify the utility of this approach, we quantitatively fit data from a common reinforcement-learning paradigm using hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation, and compared model variants to determine whether they could capture the effects of stimulant medication in adult patients with attention-deficit hyper-activity disorder (ADHD). The model with the best relative fit provided a good description of the learning process, choices, and response times. A parameter recovery experiment showed that the hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach enabled accurate estimation of the model parameters. The model approach described here, using simultaneous estimation of reinforcement-learning and drift diffusion model parameters, shows promise for revealing new insights into the cognitive and neural mechanisms of learning and decision making, as well as the alteration of such processes in clinical groups. PMID:27966103

Rule induction performance in amnestic mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's dementia: examining the role of simple and biconditional rule learning processes.

PubMed

Oosterman, Joukje M; Heringa, Sophie M; Kessels, Roy P C; Biessels, Geert Jan; Koek, Huiberdina L; Maes, Joseph H R; van den Berg, Esther

2017-04-01

Rule induction tests such as the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test require executive control processes, but also the learning and memorization of simple stimulus-response rules. In this study, we examined the contribution of diminished learning and memorization of simple rules to complex rule induction test performance in patients with amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) or Alzheimer's dementia (AD). Twenty-six aMCI patients, 39 AD patients, and 32 control participants were included. A task was used in which the memory load and the complexity of the rules were independently manipulated. This task consisted of three conditions: a simple two-rule learning condition (Condition 1), a simple four-rule learning condition (inducing an increase in memory load, Condition 2), and a complex biconditional four-rule learning condition-inducing an increase in complexity and, hence, executive control load (Condition 3). Performance of AD patients declined disproportionately when the number of simple rules that had to be memorized increased (from Condition 1 to 2). An additional increment in complexity (from Condition 2 to 3) did not, however, disproportionately affect performance of the patients. Performance of the aMCI patients did not differ from that of the control participants. In the patient group, correlation analysis showed that memory performance correlated with Condition 1 performance, whereas executive task performance correlated with Condition 2 performance. These results indicate that the reduced learning and memorization of underlying task rules explains a significant part of the diminished complex rule induction performance commonly reported in AD, although results from the correlation analysis suggest involvement of executive control functions as well. Taken together, these findings suggest that care is needed when interpreting rule induction task performance in terms of executive function deficits in these patients.

Empirical study on voting power in participatory forest planning.

PubMed

Vainikainen, N; Kangas, A; Kangas, J

2008-07-01

Multicriteria decision support systems are applied in natural resource management in order to clarify the planning process for the stakeholders, to make all available information usable and all objectives manageable. Especially when the public is involved in planning, the decision support system should be easy to comprehend, transparent and fair. Social choice theory has recently been applied to group decision-making in natural resources management to accomplish these objectives. Although voting forms the basis of democracy, and is usually taken as a fair method, the influence of voters over the outcome may vary. It is also possible to vote strategically to improve the results from each stakeholder's point of view. This study examines the use of social choice theory in revealing stakeholders' preferences in participatory forest planning, and the influence of different voters on the outcome. The positional voting rules examined were approval voting and Borda count, but both rules were slightly modified for the purposes of this study. The third rule examined, cumulative rule, resembles utilitarian voting rules. The voting rules were tested in a real participatory forest planning situation in eastern Lapland, Finland. All voting rules resulted in a different joint order of importance of the criteria. Yet, the preference orders produced had also a lot in common and the criteria could be divided into three quite distinct groups according to their importance. The influence of individual voters varied between the voting rules, and in each case different voter was the most influential.

An Extended N-Player Network Game and Simulation of Four Investment Strategies on a Complex Innovation Network

PubMed Central

Zhou, Wen; Koptyug, Nikita; Ye, Shutao; Jia, Yifan; Lu, Xiaolong

2016-01-01

As computer science and complex network theory develop, non-cooperative games and their formation and application on complex networks have been important research topics. In the inter-firm innovation network, it is a typical game behavior for firms to invest in their alliance partners. Accounting for the possibility that firms can be resource constrained, this paper analyzes a coordination game using the Nash bargaining solution as allocation rules between firms in an inter-firm innovation network. We build an extended inter-firm n-player game based on nonidealized conditions, describe four investment strategies and simulate the strategies on an inter-firm innovation network in order to compare their performance. By analyzing the results of our experiments, we find that our proposed greedy strategy is the best-performing in most situations. We hope this study provides a theoretical insight into how firms make investment decisions. PMID:26745375

Strategies for concurrent processing of complex algorithms in data driven architectures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stoughton, John W.; Mielke, Roland R.

1988-01-01

The purpose is to document research to develop strategies for concurrent processing of complex algorithms in data driven architectures. The problem domain consists of decision-free algorithms having large-grained, computationally complex primitive operations. Such are often found in signal processing and control applications. The anticipated multiprocessor environment is a data flow architecture containing between two and twenty computing elements. Each computing element is a processor having local program memory, and which communicates with a common global data memory. A new graph theoretic model called ATAMM which establishes rules for relating a decomposed algorithm to its execution in a data flow architecture is presented. The ATAMM model is used to determine strategies to achieve optimum time performance and to develop a system diagnostic software tool. In addition, preliminary work on a new multiprocessor operating system based on the ATAMM specifications is described.

An Extended N-Player Network Game and Simulation of Four Investment Strategies on a Complex Innovation Network.

PubMed

Zhou, Wen; Koptyug, Nikita; Ye, Shutao; Jia, Yifan; Lu, Xiaolong

2016-01-01

As computer science and complex network theory develop, non-cooperative games and their formation and application on complex networks have been important research topics. In the inter-firm innovation network, it is a typical game behavior for firms to invest in their alliance partners. Accounting for the possibility that firms can be resource constrained, this paper analyzes a coordination game using the Nash bargaining solution as allocation rules between firms in an inter-firm innovation network. We build an extended inter-firm n-player game based on nonidealized conditions, describe four investment strategies and simulate the strategies on an inter-firm innovation network in order to compare their performance. By analyzing the results of our experiments, we find that our proposed greedy strategy is the best-performing in most situations. We hope this study provides a theoretical insight into how firms make investment decisions.

A Fuzzy Reasoning Design for Fault Detection and Diagnosis of a Computer-Controlled System

PubMed Central

Ting, Y.; Lu, W.B.; Chen, C.H.; Wang, G.K.

2008-01-01

A Fuzzy Reasoning and Verification Petri Nets (FRVPNs) model is established for an error detection and diagnosis mechanism (EDDM) applied to a complex fault-tolerant PC-controlled system. The inference accuracy can be improved through the hierarchical design of a two-level fuzzy rule decision tree (FRDT) and a Petri nets (PNs) technique to transform the fuzzy rule into the FRVPNs model. Several simulation examples of the assumed failure events were carried out by using the FRVPNs and the Mamdani fuzzy method with MATLAB tools. The reasoning performance of the developed FRVPNs was verified by comparing the inference outcome to that of the Mamdani method. Both methods result in the same conclusions. Thus, the present study demonstratrates that the proposed FRVPNs model is able to achieve the purpose of reasoning, and furthermore, determining of the failure event of the monitored application program. PMID:19255619

Catalytic enantioselective synthesis of indanes by a cation-directed 5-endo-trig cyclization.

PubMed

Johnston, Craig P; Kothari, Abhishek; Sergeieva, Tetiana; Okovytyy, Sergiy I; Jackson, Kelvin E; Paton, Robert S; Smith, Martin D

2014-02-01

5-Endo-trig cyclizations are generally considered to be kinetically unfavourable, as described by Baldwin's rules. Consequently, observation of this mode of reaction under kinetic control is rare. This is usually ascribed to challenges in achieving appropriate approach trajectories for orbital overlap in the transition state. Here, we describe a highly enantio- and diastereoselective route to complex indanes bearing all-carbon quaternary stereogenic centres via a 5-endo-trig cyclization catalysed by a chiral ammonium salt. Through computation, the preference for the formally disfavoured 5-endo-trig Michael reaction over the formally favoured 5-exo-trig Dieckmann reaction is shown to result from thermodynamic contributions to the innate selectivity of the nucleophilic group, which outweigh the importance of the approach trajectory as embodied by Baldwin's rules. Our experimental and theoretical findings demonstrate that geometric and stereoelectronic constraints may not be decisive in the observed outcome of irreversible ring-closing reactions.

A method and knowledge base for automated inference of patient problems from structured data in an electronic medical record.

PubMed

Wright, Adam; Pang, Justine; Feblowitz, Joshua C; Maloney, Francine L; Wilcox, Allison R; Ramelson, Harley Z; Schneider, Louise I; Bates, David W

2011-01-01

Accurate knowledge of a patient's medical problems is critical for clinical decision making, quality measurement, research, billing and clinical decision support. Common structured sources of problem information include the patient problem list and billing data; however, these sources are often inaccurate or incomplete. To develop and validate methods of automatically inferring patient problems from clinical and billing data, and to provide a knowledge base for inferring problems. We identified 17 target conditions and designed and validated a set of rules for identifying patient problems based on medications, laboratory results, billing codes, and vital signs. A panel of physicians provided input on a preliminary set of rules. Based on this input, we tested candidate rules on a sample of 100,000 patient records to assess their performance compared to gold standard manual chart review. The physician panel selected a final rule for each condition, which was validated on an independent sample of 100,000 records to assess its accuracy. Seventeen rules were developed for inferring patient problems. Analysis using a validation set of 100,000 randomly selected patients showed high sensitivity (range: 62.8-100.0%) and positive predictive value (range: 79.8-99.6%) for most rules. Overall, the inference rules performed better than using either the problem list or billing data alone. We developed and validated a set of rules for inferring patient problems. These rules have a variety of applications, including clinical decision support, care improvement, augmentation of the problem list, and identification of patients for research cohorts.

Minimum Equipment Lists, Flight Rules and ... Past, Present and Future of Safety Pre-Determined Decisions for Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herd, A.; Wolff, M.

2012-01-01

Extended mission operations, such as human spaceflight to Mars provide an opportunity for take current human exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit, such as the operations undertaken on the International Space Station (ISS). This opportunity also presents a challenge in terms of extending what we currently understand as "remote operations" performed on ISS, offering learning beyond that gained from the successful moon- lander expeditions. As such there is a need to assess how the existing operations concept of ground support teams directing (and supporting) on-orbit ISS operations can be applied in the extended mission concept. The current mission support concept involves three interacting operations products - a short term plan, crew procedures and flight rules. Flight rules (for ISS operations) currently provide overall planning, engineering and operations constraints (including those derived from a safety perspective) in the form of a rule book. This paper will focus specifically on flight rules, and describe the current use of them, and assess the future role of flight rules to support exploration, including the deployment of decision support tools (DSTs) to ensure flight rule compliancy for missions with minimal ground support. Taking consideration of the historical development of pre-planned decisions, and their manifestation within the operations environment, combined with the extended remoteness of human exploration missions, we will propose a future development of this product and a platform on which it could be presented.

75 FR 492 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board; Notice of Filing of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-05

... decisions. The MSRB is firmly of the belief that the proposed rule change is within its statutory authority... Proposed Rule Change Relating to Rule G-32, on Disclosures in Connection With Primary Offerings, Form G-32... proposed rule change relating to Rule G-32, on disclosures in connection with primary offerings, Form G-32...

Industry and energy: the moral dimensions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

MacIntyre, A.

1979-05-28

Prof. MacIntyre examines the morality of the electric power industry in the historical context of creating a tradition for unchallenged demand growth. Past decisions are shown to have considered only technical matters and not violating negative prohibiting rules, but with failure to assert positive moral leadership. Positive tasks would include assuming more public responsibility in keeping with the strategic position and vast resources of the industry, Prof. MacIntyre feels. The electric power industry can, by shifting its patterns of investment, affect the nation's energy choices. Complexity and the hazards of oversimplification, the need to involve everyone in the discussion ofmore » energy costs and benefits, the ability to live with unpredictability, the avoidance of large-scale irreversible decisions, and recognition of limitations are all part of the moral dimensions the industry needs to address.« less

Acute asthma severity identification of expert system flow in emergency department

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharif, Nurul Atikah Mohd; Ahmad, Norazura; Ahmad, Nazihah; Desa, Wan Laailatul Hanim Mat

2017-11-01

Integration of computerized system in healthcare management help in smoothening the documentation of patient records, highly accesses of knowledge and clinical practices guideline, and advice on decision making. Exploit the advancement of artificial intelligent such as fuzzy logic and rule-based reasoning may improve the management of emergency department in terms of uncertainty condition and medical practices adherence towards clinical guideline. This paper presenting details of the emergency department flow for acute asthma severity identification with the embedding of acute asthma severity identification expert system (AASIES). Currently, AASIES is still in preliminary stage of system validation. However, the implementation of AASIES in asthma bay management is hope can reduce the usage of paper for manual documentation and be a pioneer for the development of a more complex decision support system to smoothen the ED management and more systematic.

Discrepant feeling rules and unscripted emotion work: women coping with termination for fetal anomaly.

PubMed

McCoyd, Judith L M

2009-10-01

The sociology of emotion is rapidly evolving and has implications for medical settings. Advancing medical technologies create new contexts for decision-making and emotional reaction that are framed by "feeling rules." Feeling rules guide not only behavior, but also how one believes one should feel, thereby causing one to attempt to bring one's authentic feelings into line with perceived feeling rules. Using qualitative data, the theoretical existence of feeling rules in pregnancy and prenatal testing is confirmed. Further examination extends this analysis: at times of technological development feeling rules are often discrepant, leaving patients with unscripted emotion work. Data from a study of women who interrupted anomalous pregnancies indicate that feeling rules are unclear when competing feeling rules are operating during times of societal and technological change. Because much of this occurs below the level of consciousness, medical and psychological services providers need to be aware of potential discrepancies in feeling rules and assist patients in identifying the salient feeling rules. Patients' struggles ease when they can recognize the discrepancies and assess their implications for decision-making and emotional response. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Decision paths in complex tasks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Galanter, Eugene

1991-01-01

Complex real world action and its prediction and control has escaped analysis by the classical methods of psychological research. The reason is that psychologists have no procedures to parse complex tasks into their constituents. Where such a division can be made, based say on expert judgment, there is no natural scale to measure the positive or negative values of the components. Even if we could assign numbers to task parts, we lack rules i.e., a theory, to combine them into a total task representation. We compare here two plausible theories for the amalgamation of the value of task components. Both of these theories require a numerical representation of motivation, for motivation is the primary variable that guides choice and action in well-learned tasks. We address this problem of motivational quantification and performance prediction by developing psychophysical scales of the desireability or aversiveness of task components based on utility scaling methods (Galanter 1990). We modify methods used originally to scale sensory magnitudes (Stevens and Galanter 1957), and that have been applied recently to the measure of task 'workload' by Gopher and Braune (1984). Our modification uses utility comparison scaling techniques which avoid the unnecessary assumptions made by Gopher and Braune. Formula for the utility of complex tasks based on the theoretical models are used to predict decision and choice of alternate paths to the same goal.

An Evolutionary Complex Systems Decision-Support Tool for the Management of Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baldwin, J. S.; Allen, P. M.; Ridgway, K.

2011-12-01

This research aimed to add both to the development of complex systems thinking in the subject area of Operations and Production Management and to the limited number of applications of computational models and simulations from the science of complex systems. The latter potentially offer helpful decision-support tools for operations and production managers. A mechanical engineering firm was used as a case study where a combined qualitative and quantitative methodological approach was employed to extract the required data from four senior managers. Company performance measures as well as firm technologies, practices and policies, and their relation and interaction with one another, were elicited. The data were subjected to an evolutionary complex systems model resulting in a series of simulations. The findings included both reassuring and some unexpected results. The simulation based on the CEO's opinions led the most cohesive and synergistic collection of practices describing the firm, closely followed by the Marketing and R&D Managers. The Manufacturing Manager's responses led to the most extreme evolutionary trajectory where the integrity of the entire firm came into question particularly when considering how employees were utilised. By drawing directly from the opinions and views of managers rather than from logical 'if-then' rules and averaged mathematical representations of agents that characterise agent-based and other self-organisational models, this work builds on previous applications by capturing a micro-level description of diversity and a learning effect that has been problematical not only in terms of theory but also in application. This approach can be used as a decision-support tool for operations and other managers providing a forum with which to explore a) the strengths, weaknesses and consequences of different decision-making capacities within the firm; b) the introduction of new manufacturing technologies, practices and policies; and, c) the different evolutionary trajectories that a firm can take.

Balancing ecosystem services with energy and food security - assessing trade-offs for reservoir operation and irrigation investment in Kenya's Tana basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurford, A. P.; Harou, J. J.

2014-01-01

Competition for water between key economic sectors and the environment means agreeing on allocation is challenging. Managing releases from the three major dams in Kenya's Tana River basin with its 4.4 million inhabitants, 567 MW of installed hydropower capacity, 33 000 ha of irrigation and ecologically important wetlands and forests is a pertinent example. This research seeks to identify and help decision-makers visualise reservoir management strategies which result in the best possible (Pareto-optimal) allocation of benefits between sectors. Secondly we seek to show how trade-offs between achievable benefits shift with the implementation of new proposed rice, cotton and biofuel irrigation projects. To identify the Pareto-optimal trade-offs we link a water resources management model to a multi-criteria search algorithm. The decisions or "levers" of the management problem are volume dependent release rules for the three major dams and extent of investment in new irrigation schemes. These decisions are optimised for objectives covering provision of water supply and irrigation, energy generation and maintenance of ecosystem services which underpin tourism and local livelihoods. Visual analytic plots allow decision makers to assess multi-reservoir rule-sets by understanding their impacts on different beneficiaries. Results quantify how economic gains from proposed irrigation schemes trade-off against disturbance of the flow regime which supports ecosystem services. Full implementation of the proposed schemes is shown to be Pareto-optimal, but at high environmental and social cost. The clarity and comprehensiveness of "best-case" trade-off analysis is a useful vantage point from which to tackle the interdependence and complexity of water-energy-food "nexus" challenges.

Balancing ecosystem services with energy and food security - Assessing trade-offs from reservoir operation and irrigation investments in Kenya's Tana Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurford, A. P.; Harou, J. J.

2014-08-01

Competition for water between key economic sectors and the environment means agreeing allocations is challenging. Managing releases from the three major dams in Kenya's Tana River basin with its 4.4 million inhabitants, 567 MW of installed hydropower capacity, 33 000 ha of irrigation and ecologically important wetlands and forests is a pertinent example. This research seeks firstly to identify and help decision-makers visualise reservoir management strategies which result in the best possible (Pareto-optimal) allocation of benefits between sectors. Secondly, it seeks to show how trade-offs between achievable benefits shift with the implementation of proposed new rice, cotton and biofuel irrigation projects. To approximate the Pareto-optimal trade-offs we link a water resources management simulation model to a multi-criteria search algorithm. The decisions or "levers" of the management problem are volume-dependent release rules for the three major dams and extent of investment in new irrigation schemes. These decisions are optimised for eight objectives covering the provision of water supply and irrigation, energy generation and maintenance of ecosystem services. Trade-off plots allow decision-makers to assess multi-reservoir rule-sets and irrigation investment options by visualising their impacts on different beneficiaries. Results quantify how economic gains from proposed irrigation schemes trade-off against the disturbance of ecosystems and local livelihoods that depend on them. Full implementation of the proposed schemes is shown to come at a high environmental and social cost. The clarity and comprehensiveness of "best-case" trade-off analysis is a useful vantage point from which to tackle the interdependence and complexity of "water-energy-food nexus" resource security issues.

75 FR 55842 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Financial Industry Regulatory Authority; Order Granting Approval...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-14

... specified in the proposed rule: i. Clarify the time frames within which members must take action to effect... a final decision of a FINRA officer or the UPC Committee under NASD Rule 11890 (Clearly Erroneous... refusal by a member to take action necessary to effectuate a final decision of a FINRA officer or the UPC...

The Supreme Court Spanking Ruling: An Issue in Debate.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Welsh, Ralph S.; And Others

Few issues have polarized the educational community so completely as the 1975 and 1977 decisions by the U.S. Supreme Court to allow corporal punishment in the schools. The symposium reported here was organized and conducted following the 1975 decision but prior to the 1977 one. Three papers in support and three papers against the ruling were read,…

10 CFR 501.102 - OFE evaluation of the record, decision and order for modification or rescission of a rule or order.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... a conference will advance its evaluation of the request. (b) Criteria. Except where modification or... rule or order. (a) OFE will consider the entire administrative record in its evaluation of the decision... request under this subpart and all interested persons will be afforded an opportunity to respond to these...

Individual versus Household Migration Decision Rules: Gender and Marital Status Differences in Intentions to Migrate in South Africa

PubMed Central

Gubhaju, Bina; De Jong, Gordon F.

2009-01-01

This research tests the thesis that the neoclassical micro-economic and the new household economic theoretical assumptions on migration decision-making rules are segmented by gender, marital status, and time frame of intention to migrate. Comparative tests of both theories within the same study design are relatively rare. Utilizing data from the Causes of Migration in South Africa national migration survey, we analyze how individually held “own-future” versus alternative “household well-being” migration decision rules effect the intentions to migrate of male and female adults in South Africa. Results from the gender and marital status specific logistic regressions models show consistent support for the different gender-marital status decision rule thesis. Specifically, the “maximizing one’s own future” neoclassical microeconomic theory proposition is more applicable for never married men and women, the “maximizing household income” proposition for married men with short-term migration intentions, and the “reduce household risk” proposition for longer time horizon migration intentions of married men and women. Results provide new evidence on the way household strategies and individual goals jointly affect intentions to move or stay. PMID:20161187

Intelligent Diagnostic Assistant for Complicated Skin Diseases through C5's Algorithm.

PubMed

Jeddi, Fatemeh Rangraz; Arabfard, Masoud; Kermany, Zahra Arab

2017-09-01

Intelligent Diagnostic Assistant can be used for complicated diagnosis of skin diseases, which are among the most common causes of disability. The aim of this study was to design and implement a computerized intelligent diagnostic assistant for complicated skin diseases through C5's Algorithm. An applied-developmental study was done in 2015. Knowledge base was developed based on interviews with dermatologists through questionnaires and checklists. Knowledge representation was obtained from the train data in the database using Excel Microsoft Office. Clementine Software and C5's Algorithms were applied to draw the decision tree. Analysis of test accuracy was performed based on rules extracted using inference chains. The rules extracted from the decision tree were entered into the CLIPS programming environment and the intelligent diagnostic assistant was designed then. The rules were defined using forward chaining inference technique and were entered into Clips programming environment as RULE. The accuracy and error rates obtained in the training phase from the decision tree were 99.56% and 0.44%, respectively. The accuracy of the decision tree was 98% and the error was 2% in the test phase. Intelligent diagnostic assistant can be used as a reliable system with high accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and agreement.

76 FR 18383 - Extension of Sunset Date for Attorney Advisor Program

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-04

... rule. SUMMARY: We are extending for 2 years our rule authorizing attorney advisors to conduct certain prehearing procedures and to issue fully favorable decisions. The current rule will expire on August 10, 2011... would end on August 10, 2009, unless we decided either to terminate the rule earlier or to extend it...

Ventral Striatum and the Evaluation of Memory Retrieval Strategies

PubMed Central

Badre, David; Lebrecht, Sophie; Pagliaccio, David; Long, Nicole M.; Scimeca, Jason M.

2015-01-01

Adaptive memory retrieval requires mechanisms of cognitive control that facilitate the recovery of goal-relevant information. Frontoparietal systems are known to support control of memory retrieval. However, the mechanisms by which the brain acquires, evaluates, and adapts retrieval strategies remain unknown. Here, we provide evidence that ventral striatal activation tracks the success of a retrieval strategy and correlates with subsequent reliance on that strategy. Human participants were scanned with fMRI while performing a lexical decision task. A rule was provided that indicated the likely semantic category of a target word given the category of a preceding prime. Reliance on the rule improved decision-making, as estimated within a drift diffusion framework. Ventral striatal activation tracked the benefit that relying on the rule had on decision-making. Moreover, activation in ventral striatum correlated with a participant’s subsequent reliance on the rule. Taken together, these results support a role for ventral striatum in learning and evaluating declarative retrieval strategies. PMID:24564466

Autonomous perception and decision making in cyber-physical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarkar, Soumik

2011-07-01

The cyber-physical system (CPS) is a relatively new interdisciplinary technology area that includes the general class of embedded and hybrid systems. CPSs require integration of computation and physical processes that involves the aspects of physical quantities such as time, energy and space during information processing and control. The physical space is the source of information and the cyber space makes use of the generated information to make decisions. This dissertation proposes an overall architecture of autonomous perception-based decision & control of complex cyber-physical systems. Perception involves the recently developed framework of Symbolic Dynamic Filtering for abstraction of physical world in the cyber space. For example, under this framework, sensor observations from a physical entity are discretized temporally and spatially to generate blocks of symbols, also called words that form a language. A grammar of a language is the set of rules that determine the relationships among words to build sentences. Subsequently, a physical system is conjectured to be a linguistic source that is capable of generating a specific language. The proposed technology is validated on various (experimental and simulated) case studies that include health monitoring of aircraft gas turbine engines, detection and estimation of fatigue damage in polycrystalline alloys, and parameter identification. Control of complex cyber-physical systems involve distributed sensing, computation, control as well as complexity analysis. A novel statistical mechanics-inspired complexity analysis approach is proposed in this dissertation. In such a scenario of networked physical systems, the distribution of physical entities determines the underlying network topology and the interaction among the entities forms the abstract cyber space. It is envisioned that the general contributions, made in this dissertation, will be useful for potential application areas such as smart power grids and buildings, distributed energy systems, advanced health care procedures and future ground and air transportation systems.

The Affordable Care Act: a case study for understanding and applying complexity concepts to health care reform.

PubMed

Larkin, D Justin; Swanson, R Chad; Fuller, Spencer; Cortese, Denis A

2016-02-01

The current health system in the United States is the result of a history of patchwork policy decisions and cultural assumptions that have led to persistent contradictions in practice, gaps in coverage, unsustainable costs, and inconsistent outcomes. In working toward a more efficient health system, understanding and applying complexity science concepts will allow for policy that better promotes desired outcomes and minimizes the effects of unintended consequences. This paper will consider three applied complexity science concepts in the context of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA): developing a shared vision around reimbursement for value, creating an environment for emergence through simple rules, and embracing transformational leadership at all levels. Transforming the US health system, or any other health system, will be neither easy nor quick. Applying complexity concepts to health reform efforts, however, will facilitate long-term change in all levels, leading to health systems that are more effective, efficient, and equitable. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A brief history and technical review of the expert system research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Haocheng

2017-09-01

The expert system is a computer system that emulates the decision-making ability of a human expert, which aims to solve complex problems by reasoning knowledge. It is an important branch of artificial intelligence. In this paper, firstly, we briefly introduce the development and basic structure of the expert system. Then, from the perspective of the enabling technology, we classify the current expert systems and elaborate four expert systems: The Rule-Based Expert System, the Framework-Based Expert System, the Fuzzy Logic-Based Expert System and the Expert System Based on Neural Network.

Formalized description and construction of semantic dictionary of graphic-text spatial relationship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Yizhong; Xue, Xiaolei; Zhao, Xiaoqin

2008-10-01

Graphic and text are two major elements in exhibiting of the results of urban planning and land administration. In combination, they convey the complex relationship resulting from spatial analysis and decision-making. Accurately interpreting and representing these relationships are important steps towards an intelligent GIS for urban planning. This paper employs concept-hierarchy-tree to formalize graphic-text relationships through a framework of spatial object lexicon, spatial relationship lexicon, restriction lexicon, applied pattern base, and word segmentation rule base. The methodology is further verified and shown effective on several urban planning archives.

Supervised spike-timing-dependent plasticity: a spatiotemporal neuronal learning rule for function approximation and decisions.

PubMed

Franosch, Jan-Moritz P; Urban, Sebastian; van Hemmen, J Leo

2013-12-01

How can an animal learn from experience? How can it train sensors, such as the auditory or tactile system, based on other sensory input such as the visual system? Supervised spike-timing-dependent plasticity (supervised STDP) is a possible answer. Supervised STDP trains one modality using input from another one as "supervisor." Quite complex time-dependent relationships between the senses can be learned. Here we prove that under very general conditions, supervised STDP converges to a stable configuration of synaptic weights leading to a reconstruction of primary sensory input.

Choosing the Rules: Distinct and Overlapping Frontoparietal Representations of Task Rules for Perceptual Decisions

PubMed Central

Kriegeskorte, Nikolaus; Carlin, Johan D.; Rowe, James B.

2013-01-01

Behavior is governed by rules that associate stimuli with responses and outcomes. Human and monkey studies have shown that rule-specific information is widely represented in the frontoparietal cortex. However, it is not known how establishing a rule under different contexts affects its neural representation. Here, we use event-related functional MRI (fMRI) and multivoxel pattern classification methods to investigate the human brain's mechanisms of establishing and maintaining rules for multiple perceptual decision tasks. Rules were either chosen by participants or specifically instructed to them, and the fMRI activation patterns representing rule-specific information were compared between these contexts. We show that frontoparietal regions differ in the properties of their rule representations during active maintenance before execution. First, rule-specific information maintained in the dorsolateral and medial frontal cortex depends on the context in which it was established (chosen vs specified). Second, rule representations maintained in the ventrolateral frontal and parietal cortex are independent of the context in which they were established. Furthermore, we found that the rule-specific coding maintained in anticipation of stimuli may change with execution of the rule: representations in context-independent regions remain invariant from maintenance to execution stages, whereas rule representations in context-dependent regions do not generalize to execution stage. The identification of distinct frontoparietal systems with context-independent and context-dependent task rule representations, and the distinction between anticipatory and executive rule representations, provide new insights into the functional architecture of goal-directed behavior. PMID:23864675

Simultaneous Optimization of Decisions Using a Linear Utility Function.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vos, Hans J.

1990-01-01

An approach is presented to simultaneously optimize decision rules for combinations of elementary decisions through a framework derived from Bayesian decision theory. The developed linear utility model for selection-mastery decisions was applied to a sample of 43 first year medical students to illustrate the procedure. (SLD)

49 CFR 1503.655 - Initial decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... Rules of Practice in TSA Civil Penalty Actions § 1503.655 Initial decision. (a) Contents. The ALJ may... copies of that initial decision available to all parties and the TSA decision maker. (b) Written decision... ALJ is persuasive authority in any other civil penalty action, unless appealed and reversed by the TSA...

20 CFR 501.6 - Decisions and orders.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Decisions and orders. 501.6 Section 501.6 Employees' Benefits EMPLOYEES' COMPENSATION APPEALS BOARD, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR RULES OF PROCEDURE § 501.6 Decisions and orders. (a) Decisions. A decision of the Board will contain a written opinion setting forth...

Decentralisation of Health Services in Fiji: A Decision Space Analysis.

PubMed

Mohammed, Jalal; North, Nicola; Ashton, Toni

2015-11-15

Decentralisation aims to bring services closer to the community and has been advocated in the health sector to improve quality, access and equity, and to empower local agencies, increase innovation and efficiency and bring healthcare and decision-making as close as possible to where people live and work. Fiji has attempted two approaches to decentralisation. The current approach reflects a model of deconcentration of outpatient services from the tertiary level hospital to the peripheral health centres in the Suva subdivision. Using a modified decision space approach developed by Bossert, this study measures decision space created in five broad categories (finance, service organisation, human resources, access rules, and governance rules) within the decentralised services. Fiji's centrally managed historical-based allocation of financial resources and management of human resources resulted in no decision space for decentralised agents. Narrow decision space was created in the service organisation category where, with limited decision space created over access rules, Fiji has seen greater usage of its decentralised health centres. There remains limited decision space in governance. The current wave of decentralisation reveals that, whilst the workload has shifted from the tertiary hospital to the peripheral health centres, it has been accompanied by limited transfer of administrative authority, suggesting that Fiji's deconcentration reflects the transfer of workload only with decision-making in the five functional areas remaining largely centralised. As such, the benefits of decentralisation for users and providers are likely to be limited. © 2016 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

Trauma scoring systems and databases.

PubMed

Lecky, F; Woodford, M; Edwards, A; Bouamra, O; Coats, T

2014-08-01

This review considers current trauma scoring systems and databases and their relevance to improving patient care. Single physiological measures such as systolic arterial pressure have limited ability to diagnose severe trauma by reflecting raised intracranial pressure, or significant haemorrhage. The Glasgow coma score has the greatest prognostic value in head-injured and other trauma patients. Trauma triage tools and imaging decision rules-using combinations of physiological cut-off measures with mechanism of injury and other categorical variables-bring both increased sophistication and increased complexity. It is important for clinicians and managers to be aware of the diagnostic properties (over- and under-triage rates) of any triage tool or decision rule used in their trauma system. Trauma registries are able to collate definitive injury descriptors and use survival prediction models to guide trauma system governance, through individual patient review and case-mix-adjusted benchmarking of hospital and network performance with robust outlier identification. Interrupted time series allow observation in the changes in care processes and outcomes at national level, which can feed back into clinical quality-based commissioning of healthcare. Registry data are also a valuable resource for trauma epidemiological and comparative effectiveness research studies. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Impact of managed care on physicians' decisions to manipulate reimbursement rules: an explanatory model.

PubMed

VanGeest, Jonathan; Weiner, Saul; Johnson, Timothy; Cummins, Deborah

2007-07-01

To develop and test an explanatory model of the impact of managed care on physicians' decisions to manipulate reimbursement rules for patients. A self-administered mailed questionnaire of a national random sample of 1124 practicing physicians in the USA. Structural equation modelling was used. The main outcome measure assessed whether or not physicians had manipulated reimbursement rules (such as exaggerated the severity of patients conditions, changed billing diagnoses, or reported signs or symptoms that the patients did not have) to help patients secure coverage for needed treatment or services. The response rate was 64% (n = 720). Physicians' decisions to manipulate reimbursement rules for patients are directly driven not only by ethical beliefs about gaming the system but also by requests from patients, the perception of insufficient time to deliver care, and the proportion of Medicaid patients. Covert advocacy is also the indirect result of utilization review hassles, primary care specialty, and practice environment. Managed care is not just a set of rules that physicians choose to follow or disobey, but an environment of competing pressures from patients, purchasers, and high workload. Reimbursement manipulation is a response to that environment, rather than simply a reflection of individual physicians' values.

77 FR 46686 - Steel Nails From the People's Republic of China: Notice of Court Decision Not in Harmony With...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-06

...'s Republic of China: Notice of Court Decision Not in Harmony With Final Scope Ruling and Notice of... Corporation's toolkits from the People's Republic of China (``PRC''), pursuant to the CIT's remand order in... judgment in this case is not in harmony with the Department's final scope ruling and is amending its final...

A Comparison of Common and Novel Curriculum-Based Measurement of Reading Decision Rules to Predict Spring Performance for Students Receiving Supplemental Interventions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Norman, Ethan R.; Parker, David C.

2018-01-01

Recent simulations suggest that trend line decision rules applied to curriculum-based measurement of reading progress monitoring data may lead to inaccurate interpretations unless data are collected for upward of 3 months. The authors of those studies did not manipulate goal line slope or account for a student's level of initial performance when…

Fuzzy rule-based forecast of meteorological drought in western Niger

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdourahamane, Zakari Seybou; Acar, Reşat

2018-01-01

Understanding the causes of rainfall anomalies in the West African Sahel to effectively predict drought events remains a challenge. The physical mechanisms that influence precipitation in this region are complex, uncertain, and imprecise in nature. Fuzzy logic techniques are renowned to be highly efficient in modeling such dynamics. This paper attempts to forecast meteorological drought in Western Niger using fuzzy rule-based modeling techniques. The 3-month scale standardized precipitation index (SPI-3) of four rainfall stations was used as predictand. Monthly data of southern oscillation index (SOI), South Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), relative humidity (RH), and Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP), sourced from the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA), were used as predictors. Fuzzy rules and membership functions were generated using fuzzy c-means clustering approach, expert decision, and literature review. For a minimum lead time of 1 month, the model has a coefficient of determination R 2 between 0.80 and 0.88, mean square error (MSE) below 0.17, and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ranging between 0.79 and 0.87. The empirical frequency distributions of the predicted and the observed drought classes are equal at the 99% of confidence level based on two-sample t test. Results also revealed the discrepancy in the influence of SOI and SLP on drought occurrence at the four stations while the effect of SST and RH are space independent, being both significantly correlated (at α < 0.05 level) to the SPI-3. Moreover, the implemented fuzzy model compared to decision tree-based forecast model shows better forecast skills.

Likelihood Ratio, Optimal Decision Rules, and Relationship between Proportion Correct and d' in the Dual-Pair AB vs BA identification Paradigm

PubMed Central

Micheyl, Christophe; Dai, Huanping

2010-01-01

The equal-variance Gaussian signal-detection-theory (SDT) decision model for the dual-pair change-detection (or “4IAX”) paradigm has been described in earlier publications. In this note, we consider the equal-variance Gaussian SDT model for the related dual-pair AB vs BA identification paradigm. The likelihood ratios, optimal decision rules, receiver operating characteristics (ROCs), and relationships between d' and proportion-correct (PC) are analyzed for two special cases: that of statistically independent observations, which is likely to apply in constant-stimuli experiments, and that of highly correlated observations, which is likely to apply in experiments where stimuli are roved widely across trials or pairs. A surprising outcome of this analysis is that although these two situations lead to different optimal decision rules, the predicted ROCs and proportions of correct responses (PCs) for these two cases are not substantially different, and are either identical or similar to those observed in the basic Yes-No paradigm. PMID:19633356

A programmable rules engine to provide clinical decision support using HTML forms.

PubMed

Heusinkveld, J; Geissbuhler, A; Sheshelidze, D; Miller, R

1999-01-01

The authors have developed a simple method for specifying rules to be applied to information on HTML forms. This approach allows clinical experts, who lack the programming expertise needed to write CGI scripts, to construct and maintain domain-specific knowledge and ordering capabilities within WizOrder, the order-entry and decision support system used at Vanderbilt Hospital. The clinical knowledge base maintainers use HTML editors to create forms and spreadsheet programs for rule entry. A test environment has been developed which uses Netscape to display forms; the production environment displays forms using an embedded browser.

A method and knowledge base for automated inference of patient problems from structured data in an electronic medical record

PubMed Central

Pang, Justine; Feblowitz, Joshua C; Maloney, Francine L; Wilcox, Allison R; Ramelson, Harley Z; Schneider, Louise I; Bates, David W

2011-01-01

Background Accurate knowledge of a patient's medical problems is critical for clinical decision making, quality measurement, research, billing and clinical decision support. Common structured sources of problem information include the patient problem list and billing data; however, these sources are often inaccurate or incomplete. Objective To develop and validate methods of automatically inferring patient problems from clinical and billing data, and to provide a knowledge base for inferring problems. Study design and methods We identified 17 target conditions and designed and validated a set of rules for identifying patient problems based on medications, laboratory results, billing codes, and vital signs. A panel of physicians provided input on a preliminary set of rules. Based on this input, we tested candidate rules on a sample of 100 000 patient records to assess their performance compared to gold standard manual chart review. The physician panel selected a final rule for each condition, which was validated on an independent sample of 100 000 records to assess its accuracy. Results Seventeen rules were developed for inferring patient problems. Analysis using a validation set of 100 000 randomly selected patients showed high sensitivity (range: 62.8–100.0%) and positive predictive value (range: 79.8–99.6%) for most rules. Overall, the inference rules performed better than using either the problem list or billing data alone. Conclusion We developed and validated a set of rules for inferring patient problems. These rules have a variety of applications, including clinical decision support, care improvement, augmentation of the problem list, and identification of patients for research cohorts. PMID:21613643

Using Participatory Action Research to Develop a Working Model That Enhances Psychiatric Nurses' Professionalism: The Architecture of Stability.

PubMed

Salzmann-Erikson, Martin

2017-11-01

Ward rules in psychiatric care aim to promote safety for both patients and staff. Simultaneously, ward rules are associated with increased patient violence, leading to neither a safe work environment nor a safe caring environment. Although ward rules are routinely used, few studies have explicitly accounted for their impact. To describe the process of a team development project considering ward rule issues, and to develop a working model to empower staff in their daily in-patient psychiatric nursing practices. The design of this study is explorative and descriptive. Participatory action research methodology was applied to understand ward rules. Data consists of audio-recorded group discussions, observations and field notes, together creating a data set of 556 text pages. More than 100 specific ward rules were identified. In this process, the word rules was relinquished in favor of adopting the term principles, since rules are inconsistent with a caring ideology. A linguistic transition led to the development of a framework embracing the (1) Principle of Safety, (2) Principle of Structure and (3) Principle of Interplay. The principles were linked to normative guidelines and applied ethical theories: deontology, consequentialism and ethics of care. The work model reminded staff about the principles, empowered their professional decision-making, decreased collegial conflicts because of increased acceptance for individual decisions, and, in general, improved well-being at work. Furthermore, the work model also empowered staff to find support for their decisions based on principles that are grounded in the ethics of totality.

Visual categorization of natural movies by rats.

PubMed

Vinken, Kasper; Vermaercke, Ben; Op de Beeck, Hans P

2014-08-06

Visual categorization of complex, natural stimuli has been studied for some time in human and nonhuman primates. Recent interest in the rodent as a model for visual perception, including higher-level functional specialization, leads to the question of how rodents would perform on a categorization task using natural stimuli. To answer this question, rats were trained in a two-alternative forced choice task to discriminate movies containing rats from movies containing other objects and from scrambled movies (ordinate-level categorization). Subsequently, transfer to novel, previously unseen stimuli was tested, followed by a series of control probes. The results show that the animals are capable of acquiring a decision rule by abstracting common features from natural movies to generalize categorization to new stimuli. Control probes demonstrate that they did not use single low-level features, such as motion energy or (local) luminance. Significant generalization was even present with stationary snapshots from untrained movies. The variability within and between training and test stimuli, the complexity of natural movies, and the control experiments and analyses all suggest that a more high-level rule based on more complex stimulus features than local luminance-based cues was used to classify the novel stimuli. In conclusion, natural stimuli can be used to probe ordinate-level categorization in rats. Copyright © 2014 the authors 0270-6474/14/3410645-14$15.00/0.

Acceptability of a Mobile Clinical Decision Tool Among Emergency Department Clinicians: Development and Evaluation of The Ottawa Rules App.

PubMed

Paradis, Michelle; Stiell, Ian; Atkinson, Katherine M; Guerinet, Julien; Sequeira, Yulric; Salter, Laura; Forster, Alan J; Murphy, Malia Sq; Wilson, Kumanan

2018-06-11

The Ottawa Ankle Rules, Ottawa Knee Rule, and Canadian C-Spine Rule-together known as The Ottawa Rules-are a set of internationally validated clinical decision rules developed to decrease unnecessary diagnostic imaging in the emergency department. In this study, we sought to develop and evaluate the use of a mobile app version of The Ottawa Rules. The primary objective of this study was to determine acceptability of The Ottawa Rules app among emergency department clinicians. The secondary objective was to evaluate the effect of publicity efforts on uptake of The Ottawa Rules app. The Ottawa Rules app was developed and publicly released for free on iOS and Android operating systems in April 2016. Local and national news and academic media coverage coincided with app release. This study was conducted at a large tertiary trauma care center in Ottawa, Canada. The study was advertised through posters and electronically by email. Emergency department clinicians were approached in person to enroll via in-app consent for a 1-month study during which time they were encouraged to use the app when evaluating patients with suspected knee, foot, or neck injuries. A 23-question survey was administered at the end of the study period via email to determine self-reported frequency, perceived ease of use of the app, and participant Technology Readiness Index scores. A total of 108 emergency department clinicians completed the study including 42 nurses, 33 residents, 20 attending physicians, and 13 medical students completing emergency department rotations. The median Technology Readiness Index for this group was 3.56, indicating a moderate degree of openness for technological adoption. The majority of survey respondents indicated favorable receptivity to the app including finding it helpful to applying the rules (73/108, 67.6%), that they would recommend the app to colleagues (81/108, 75.0%), and that they would continue using the app (73/108, 67.6%). Feedback from study participants highlighted a desire for access to more clinical decision rules and a higher degree of interactivity of the app. Between April 21, 2016, and June 1, 2017, The Ottawa Rules app was downloaded approximately 4000 times across 89 countries. We have found The Ottawa Rules app to be an effective means to disseminate the Ottawa Ankle Rules, Ottawa Knee Rule, and Canadian C-Spine Rule among all levels of emergency department clinicians. We have been successful in monitoring uptake and access of the rules in the app as a result of our publicity efforts. Mobile technology can be leveraged to improve the accessibility of clinical decision tools to health professionals. ©Michelle Paradis, Ian Stiell, Katherine M Atkinson, Julien Guerinet, Yulric Sequeira, Laura Salter, Alan J Forster, Malia SQ Murphy, Kumanan Wilson. Originally published in JMIR Mhealth and Uhealth (http://mhealth.jmir.org), 11.06.2018.

Decision-Making in Agent-Based Models of Migration: State of the Art and Challenges.

PubMed

Klabunde, Anna; Willekens, Frans

We review agent-based models (ABM) of human migration with respect to their decision-making rules. The most prominent behavioural theories used as decision rules are the random utility theory, as implemented in the discrete choice model, and the theory of planned behaviour. We identify the critical choices that must be made in developing an ABM, namely the modelling of decision processes and social networks. We also discuss two challenges that hamper the widespread use of ABM in the study of migration and, more broadly, demography and the social sciences: (a) the choice and the operationalisation of a behavioural theory (decision-making and social interaction) and (b) the selection of empirical evidence to validate the model. We offer advice on how these challenges might be overcome.

22 CFR 224.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... limited to any advantage, preference, privilege, license, permit, favorable decision, ruling, status, or... United States Government. Individual means a natural person. Initial decision means the written decision of the ALJ required by § 224.10 or § 224.37, and includes a revised initial decision issued following...

38 CFR 42.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... advantage, preference, privilege, license, permit, favorable decision, ruling, status, or loan guarantee.... Initial Decision means the written decision of the ALJ required by § 42.10 or § 42.37 of this part, and includes a revised initial decision issued following a remand or a motion for reconsideration...

76 FR 28209 - Committee on Regulation

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-16

... #0; #0;Notices #0; Federal Register #0; #0; #0;This section of the FEDERAL REGISTER contains documents other than rules #0;or proposed rules that are applicable to the public. Notices of hearings #0;and investigations, committee meetings, agency decisions and rulings, #0;delegations of authority...

78 FR 22842 - Nicolet Resource Advisory Committee

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-17

... #0; #0;Notices #0; Federal Register #0; #0; #0;This section of the FEDERAL REGISTER contains documents other than rules #0;or proposed rules that are applicable to the public. Notices of hearings #0;and investigations, committee meetings, agency decisions and rulings, #0;delegations of authority...

Decision making under internal uncertainty: the case of multiple-choice tests with different scoring rules.

PubMed

Bereby-Meyer, Yoella; Meyer, Joachim; Budescu, David V

2003-02-01

This paper assesses framing effects on decision making with internal uncertainty, i.e., partial knowledge, by focusing on examinees' behavior in multiple-choice (MC) tests with different scoring rules. In two experiments participants answered a general-knowledge MC test that consisted of 34 solvable and 6 unsolvable items. Experiment 1 studied two scoring rules involving Positive (only gains) and Negative (only losses) scores. Although answering all items was the dominating strategy for both rules, the results revealed a greater tendency to answer under the Negative scoring rule. These results are in line with the predictions derived from Prospect Theory (PT) [Econometrica 47 (1979) 263]. The second experiment studied two scoring rules, which allowed respondents to exhibit partial knowledge. Under the Inclusion-scoring rule the respondents mark all answers that could be correct, and under the Exclusion-scoring rule they exclude all answers that might be incorrect. As predicted by PT, respondents took more risks under the Inclusion rule than under the Exclusion rule. The results illustrate that the basic process that underlies choice behavior under internal uncertainty and especially the effect of framing is similar to the process of choice under external uncertainty and can be described quite accurately by PT. Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science B.V.

Derivation of a clinical decision rule to guide the interhospital transfer of patients with blunt traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Newgard, C D; Hedges, J R; Stone, J V; Lenfesty, B; Diggs, B; Arthur, M; Mullins, R J

2005-12-01

To derive a clinical decision rule for people with traumatic brain injury (TBI) that enables early identification of patients requiring specialised trauma care. We collected data from 1999 through 2003 on a retrospective cohort of consecutive people aged 18-65 years with a serious head injury (AIS > or =3), transported directly from the scene of injury, and evaluated in the ED. Information on 22 demographical, physiological, radiographic, and lab variables was collected. Resource based "high therapeutic intensity" measures occurring within 72 hours of ED arrival (the outcome measure) were identified a priori and included: neurosurgical intervention, exploratory laparotomy, intensive care interventions, or death. We used classification and regression tree analysis to derive and cross validate the decision rule. 504 consecutive trauma patients were identified as having a serious head injury: 246 (49%) required at least one of the HTI measures. Five ED variables (GCS, respiratory rate, age, temperature, and pulse rate) identified subjects requiring at least one of the HTI measures with 94% sensitivity (95% CI 91 to 97%) and 63% specificity (95% CI 57 to 69%) in the derivation sample, and 90% sensitivity and 55% specificity using cross validation. This decision rule identified among a cohort of head injured patients evaluated in the ED the majority of those who urgently required specialised trauma care. The rule will require prospective validation in injured people presenting to non-tertiary care hospitals before implementation can be recommended.

Irrational decision-making in an amoeboid organism: transitivity and context-dependent preferences.

PubMed

Latty, Tanya; Beekman, Madeleine

2011-01-22

Most models of animal foraging and consumer choice assume that individuals make choices based on the absolute value of items and are therefore 'economically rational'. However, frequent violations of rationality by animals, including humans, suggest that animals use comparative valuation rules. Are comparative valuation strategies a consequence of the way brains process information, or are they an intrinsic feature of biological decision-making? Here, we examine the principles of rationality in an organism with radically different information-processing mechanisms: the brainless, unicellular, slime mould Physarum polycephalum. We offered P. polycephalum amoebas a choice between food options that varied in food quality and light exposure (P. polycephalum is photophobic). The use of an absolute valuation rule will lead to two properties: transitivity and independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA). Transitivity is satisfied if preferences have a consistent, linear ordering, while IIA states that a decision maker's preference for an item should not change if the choice set is expanded. A violation of either of these principles suggests the use of comparative rather than absolute valuation rules. Physarum polycephalum satisfied transitivity by having linear preference rankings. However, P. polycephalum's preference for a focal alternative increased when a third, inferior quality option was added to the choice set, thus violating IIA and suggesting the use of a comparative valuation process. The discovery of comparative valuation rules in a unicellular organism suggests that comparative valuation rules are ubiquitous, if not universal, among biological decision makers.

Rules, Schema, and Decision Making.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-09-01

discussion ............................................................ 47 6. GENERAL DISCUSSION...65 6.3. Generality of results................................................................ 68 6.4. Implications for...3 2-1 General model of decision making

Diagnostic accuracy and reproducibility of the Ottawa Knee Rule vs the Pittsburgh Decision Rule.

PubMed

Cheung, Tung C; Tank, Yeliz; Breederveld, Roelf S; Tuinebreijer, Wim E; de Lange-de Klerk, Elly S M; Derksen, Robert J

2013-04-01

The aim of this present study was to compare the diagnostic accuracy and reproducibility of 2 clinical decision rules (the Ottawa Knee Rules [OKR] and Pittsburgh Decision Rules [PDR]) developed for selective use of x-rays in the evaluation of isolated knee trauma. Application of a decision rule leads to a more efficient evaluation of knee injuries and a reduction in health care costs. The diagnostic accuracy and reproducibility are compared in this study. A cross-sectional interobserver study was conducted in the emergency department of an urban teaching hospital from October 2008 to July 2009. Two observer groups collected data on standardized case-report forms: emergency medicine residents and surgical residents. Standard knee radiographs were performed in each patient. Participants were patients 18 years and older with isolated knee injuries. Pooled sensitivity and specificity were compared using χ(2) statistics, and interobserver agreement was calculated by using κ statistics. Ninety injuries were assessed. Seven injuries concerned fractures (7.8%). For the OKR, the pooled sensitivity and specificity were 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57-0.96) and 0.27 (95% CI, 0.21-0.35), respectively. The PDR had a pooled sensitivity and specificity of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.57-0.96) and 0.51 (95% CI, 0.44-0.59). The PDR was significantly (P = .002) more specific. The κ values for the OKR and PDR were 0.51 (95% CI, 0.32-0.71) and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.57-0.86), respectively. The PDR was found to be more specific than the OKR, with equal sensitivity. Interobserver agreement was moderate for the OKR and substantial for the PDR. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Decision to Engage Cognitive Control Is Driven by Expected Reward-Value: Neural and Behavioral Evidence

PubMed Central

Dixon, Matthew L.; Christoff, Kalina

2012-01-01

Cognitive control is a fundamental skill reflecting the active use of task-rules to guide behavior and suppress inappropriate automatic responses. Prior work has traditionally used paradigms in which subjects are told when to engage cognitive control. Thus, surprisingly little is known about the factors that influence individuals' initial decision of whether or not to act in a reflective, rule-based manner. To examine this, we took three classic cognitive control tasks (Stroop, Wisconsin Card Sorting Task, Go/No-Go task) and created novel ‘free-choice’ versions in which human subjects were free to select an automatic, pre-potent action, or an action requiring rule-based cognitive control, and earned varying amounts of money based on their choices. Our findings demonstrated that subjects' decision to engage cognitive control was driven by an explicit representation of monetary rewards expected to be obtained from rule-use. Subjects rarely engaged cognitive control when the expected outcome was of equal or lesser value as compared to the value of the automatic response, but frequently engaged cognitive control when it was expected to yield a larger monetary outcome. Additionally, we exploited fMRI-adaptation to show that the lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) represents associations between rules and expected reward outcomes. Together, these findings suggest that individuals are more likely to act in a reflective, rule-based manner when they expect that it will result in a desired outcome. Thus, choosing to exert cognitive control is not simply a matter of reason and willpower, but rather, conforms to standard mechanisms of value-based decision making. Finally, in contrast to current models of LPFC function, our results suggest that the LPFC plays a direct role in representing motivational incentives. PMID:23284730

The future of decision-making in critical care after Cuthbertson v. Rasouli.

PubMed

Hawryluck, Laura; Baker, Andrew J; Faith, Andrew; Singh, Jeffrey M

2014-10-01

The Supreme Court of Canada (SCC) ruling on Cuthbertson v. Rasouli has implications for all acute healthcare providers. This well-publicized case involved a disagreement between healthcare providers and a patient's family regarding the principles surrounding withdrawal of life support, which the physicians involved considered no longer of medical benefit and outside the standard of care, and whether consent was required for such withdrawals. Our objective in writing this article is to clarify the implications of this ruling on the care of critically ill patients. SCC ruling Cuthbertson v. Rasouli. The SCC ruled that consent must be obtained for all treatments that serve a "health-related purpose", including withdrawal of such treatments. The SCC did not fully consider what the standard of care should be. Health-related purpose is not sufficient in and of itself to mandate treatment, and clinicians must still ensure that their patients or decision-makers are aware of the possible medical benefits, risks, and expected outcomes of treatments. The provision of treatments that have no potential to provide medical benefit and carry only risks would still fall outside the standard of care. Nevertheless, due to their health-related purpose, physicians must seek consent for the discontinuation of these treatments. The SCC ruled that due to the legal definition of "health-related purpose", which is distinct from medical benefit, consent is required to withdraw life-support and outlined the steps to be taken should conflict arise. The SCC decision did not directly address the role of medical standard of care in these situations. In order to ensure optimal decision-making and communication with patients and their families, it is critical for healthcare providers to have a clear understanding of the implications of this legal ruling on medical practice.

The impact of loss sensitivity on a mobile phone supply chain system stability based on the chaos theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Junhai; Xie, Lei

2018-02-01

This paper, based on the China's communications and the current situation of the mobile phone industry, focuses on the stability of a supply chain system that consists of one supplier and one bounded rational retailer. We explore the influence of the decision makers' loss sensitivity and decision adjustment speed on the stability of the supply chain. It is found that when the retailer is not sensitive to the loss or adjusts decisions cautiously, the system can be stable. The single-retailer model is extended to a multi-retailer one to study the influence of competition on the system stability. The results show that the market share of each retailer does not affect the system stability when it is fixed. The decision of each retailer does not affect that of any other retailer and the system stability. We present two decision adjustment rules (;bounded rationality expectation (BRE); and "adaptive exponential smoothing (AES)") and compare their performances on the system stability, and find that the AES rule does not affect the system stability, while the BRE rule will make the system stability be sensitive to the retailers' loss sensitivity and the decision adjustment speed. We also reveal the unstable system's negative impact on the retailers' decisions and profits, to emphasize the importance to maintain the system stability.

20 CFR 418.1355 - What are the rules for reopening a decision by an administrative law judge of the Office of...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false What are the rules for reopening a decision by an administrative law judge of the Office of Medicare Hearings and Appeals (OMHA) or by the Medicare Appeals Council (MAC)? 418.1355 Section 418.1355 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION MEDICARE SUBSIDIES Medicare Part B...

40 CFR 164.90 - Initial decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

....90 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) PESTICIDE PROGRAMS RULES OF... REFUSALS TO REGISTER, CANCELLATIONS OF REGISTRATIONS, CHANGES OF CLASSIFICATIONS, SUSPENSIONS OF... Environmental Appeals Board. The initial decision shall become the decision of the Environmental Appeals Board...

40 CFR 164.90 - Initial decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

....90 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) PESTICIDE PROGRAMS RULES OF... REFUSALS TO REGISTER, CANCELLATIONS OF REGISTRATIONS, CHANGES OF CLASSIFICATIONS, SUSPENSIONS OF... Environmental Appeals Board. The initial decision shall become the decision of the Environmental Appeals Board...

Separating Decision and Encoding Noise in Signal Detection Tasks

PubMed Central

Cabrera, Carlos Alexander; Lu, Zhong-Lin; Dosher, Barbara Anne

2015-01-01

In this paper we develop an extension to the Signal Detection Theory (SDT) framework to separately estimate internal noise arising from representational and decision processes. Our approach constrains SDT models with decision noise by combining a multi-pass external noise paradigm with confidence rating responses. In a simulation study we present evidence that representation and decision noise can be separately estimated over a range of representative underlying representational and decision noise level configurations. These results also hold across a number of decision rules and show resilience to rule miss-specification. The new theoretical framework is applied to a visual detection confidence-rating task with three and five response categories. This study compliments and extends the recent efforts of researchers (Benjamin, Diaz, & Wee, 2009; Mueller & Weidemann, 2008; Rosner & Kochanski, 2009, Kellen, Klauer, & Singmann, 2012) to separate and quantify underlying sources of response variability in signal detection tasks. PMID:26120907

Age differences in decision making: a process methodology for examining strategic information processing.

PubMed

Johnson, M M

1990-03-01

This study explored the use of process tracing techniques in examining the decision-making processes of older and younger adults. Thirty-six college-age and thirty-six retirement-age participants decided which one of six cars they would purchase on the basis of computer-accessed data. They provided information search protocols. Results indicate that total time to reach a decision did not differ according to age. However, retirement-age participants used less information, spent more time viewing, and re-viewed fewer bits of information than college-age participants. Information search patterns differed markedly between age groups. Patterns of retirement-age adults indicated their use of noncompensatory decision rules which, according to decision-making literature (Payne, 1976), reduce cognitive processing demands. The patterns of the college-age adults indicated their use of compensatory decision rules, which have higher processing demands.

Professionalism and maintenance of certification: using vignettes describing interpersonal dilemmas to stimulate reflection and learning.

PubMed

Bernabeo, Elizabeth C; Reddy, Siddharta G; Ginsburg, Shiphra; Holmboe, Eric S

2014-01-01

Physicians do not always agree on "rules" governing behavior in professionally challenging situations. Little is known about contextual factors that influence physician approaches in these situations. We explored the individual-, social-, and societal-level factors that physicians consider when responding to 2 common professional dilemmas. We were particularly interested in knowing the extent to which physicians engage in self-reflection as a result of responding to the vignettes. A cross-sectional Web-based survey was sent to a random sample of 396 physicians, prompting them to respond to scripted professional dilemmas. A total of 120 physicians responded, yielding a response rate of 32.6%. Physicians responded to these dilemmas in highly variable ways, negotiating a complex array of contextual factors in their decisions. Interacting factors involving individual-level physician (eg, worry, guilt), patient (eg, nature of medical condition or relationship with patient), and social/societal (eg, policy, what peers or colleagues do) were important drivers in physician responses. Qualitative analysis revealed that several interacting themes guide physician approaches to professional dilemmas: patient welfare; types of patients; political, ethical, or legal issues; guiding principles; values; rules; and habits. Physicians negotiate a complex set of individual-, social-, and societal-level factors in response to professional dilemmas. This finding has important implications for the promotion and assessment of professional behavior in practicing physicians. Reflecting on scenarios may be an opportunity for physicians to learn about how and why they make decisions in difficult situations. © 2014 The Alliance for Continuing Education in the Health Professions, the Society for Academic Continuing Medical Education, and the Council on Continuing Medical Education, Association for Hospital Medical Education.

A knowledge-based approach to identification and adaptation in dynamical systems control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Glass, B. J.; Wong, C. M.

1988-01-01

Artificial intelligence techniques are applied to the problems of model form and parameter identification of large-scale dynamic systems. The object-oriented knowledge representation is discussed in the context of causal modeling and qualitative reasoning. Structured sets of rules are used for implementing qualitative component simulations, for catching qualitative discrepancies and quantitative bound violations, and for making reconfiguration and control decisions that affect the physical system. These decisions are executed by backward-chaining through a knowledge base of control action tasks. This approach was implemented for two examples: a triple quadrupole mass spectrometer and a two-phase thermal testbed. Results of tests with both of these systems demonstrate that the software replicates some or most of the functionality of a human operator, thereby reducing the need for a human-in-the-loop in the lower levels of control of these complex systems.

Knowledge as a Service at the Point of Care.

PubMed

Shellum, Jane L; Freimuth, Robert R; Peters, Steve G; Nishimura, Rick A; Chaudhry, Rajeev; Demuth, Steve J; Knopp, Amy L; Miksch, Timothy A; Milliner, Dawn S

2016-01-01

An electronic health record (EHR) can assist the delivery of high-quality patient care, in part by providing the capability for a broad range of clinical decision support, including contextual references (e.g., Infobuttons), alerts and reminders, order sets, and dashboards. All of these decision support tools are based on clinical knowledge; unfortunately, the mechanisms for managing rules, order sets, Infobuttons, and dashboards are often unrelated, making it difficult to coordinate the application of clinical knowledge to various components of the clinical workflow. Additional complexity is encountered when updating enterprise-wide knowledge bases and delivering the content through multiple modalities to different consumers. We present the experience of Mayo Clinic as a case study to examine the requirements and implementation challenges related to knowledge management across a large, multi-site medical center. The lessons learned through the development of our knowledge management and delivery platform will help inform the future development of interoperable knowledge resources.

Knowledge as a Service at the Point of Care

PubMed Central

Shellum, Jane L.; Freimuth, Robert R.; Peters, Steve G.; Nishimura, Rick A.; Chaudhry, Rajeev; Demuth, Steve J.; Knopp, Amy L.; Miksch, Timothy A.; Milliner, Dawn S.

2016-01-01

An electronic health record (EHR) can assist the delivery of high-quality patient care, in part by providing the capability for a broad range of clinical decision support, including contextual references (e.g., Infobuttons), alerts and reminders, order sets, and dashboards. All of these decision support tools are based on clinical knowledge; unfortunately, the mechanisms for managing rules, order sets, Infobuttons, and dashboards are often unrelated, making it difficult to coordinate the application of clinical knowledge to various components of the clinical workflow. Additional complexity is encountered when updating enterprise-wide knowledge bases and delivering the content through multiple modalities to different consumers. We present the experience of Mayo Clinic as a case study to examine the requirements and implementation challenges related to knowledge management across a large, multi-site medical center. The lessons learned through the development of our knowledge management and delivery platform will help inform the future development of interoperable knowledge resources. PMID:28269911

16 CFR 5.65 - Review of initial decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 16 Commercial Practices 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Review of initial decision. 5.65 Section 5.65 Commercial Practices FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION ORGANIZATION, PROCEDURES AND RULES OF PRACTICE... initial decision. Appeals from the initial decision of the Administrative Law Judge or review by the...

22 CFR 35.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

..., permit, favorable decision, ruling, status, or loan gurarantee. (e) Claim means any request, demand, or.... (k) Initial decision means the written decision of the ALJ required by § 35.10 or § 35.37, and includes a revised initial decision issued following a remand or a motion for reconsideration. (l...

75 FR 62538 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Extension

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-12

... information collection requirements contained in its Used Motor Vehicle Trade Regulation Rule (``Used Car Rule...-5634. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The Used Car Rule facilitates informed purchasing decisions by requiring used car dealers to disclose information about warranty coverage, if any, and the mechanical...

77 FR 52676 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

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2012-08-30

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78 FR 62296 - Combined Notice of Filings #1

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2013-10-15

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76 FR 6596 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

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2011-02-07

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78 FR 76100 - Black Hills National Forest Advisory Board

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77 FR 53168 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

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2012-08-31

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78 FR 17920 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

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2013-03-25

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76 FR 62336 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

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2011-10-07

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77 FR 56606 - Glenn/Colusa County Resource Advisory Committee

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75 FR 71411 - Radio Broadcasting Services; Silverpeak, NV

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2010-11-23

... rule; dismissal. SUMMARY: The Audio Division dismisses the petition for rule making filed by Shamrock... Division dismissed the petition for rule making and terminated the proceeding without adoption of a final..., and released November 5, 2010. The full text of this Commission decision is available for inspection...

34 CFR 668.98 - Interlocutory appeals to the Secretary from rulings of a hearing official.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... a hearing official. 668.98 Section 668.98 Education Regulations of the Offices of the Department of... Secretary from rulings of a hearing official. (a) A ruling by a hearing official may not be appealed to the... issuance of the initial decision, grant a review of a ruling upon either a certification by a hearing...

Scalable software architectures for decision support.

PubMed

Musen, M A

1999-12-01

Interest in decision-support programs for clinical medicine soared in the 1970s. Since that time, workers in medical informatics have been particularly attracted to rule-based systems as a means of providing clinical decision support. Although developers have built many successful applications using production rules, they also have discovered that creation and maintenance of large rule bases is quite problematic. In the 1980s, several groups of investigators began to explore alternative programming abstractions that can be used to build decision-support systems. As a result, the notions of "generic tasks" and of reusable problem-solving methods became extremely influential. By the 1990s, academic centers were experimenting with architectures for intelligent systems based on two classes of reusable components: (1) problem-solving methods--domain-independent algorithms for automating stereotypical tasks--and (2) domain ontologies that captured the essential concepts (and relationships among those concepts) in particular application areas. This paper highlights how developers can construct large, maintainable decision-support systems using these kinds of building blocks. The creation of domain ontologies and problem-solving methods is the fundamental end product of basic research in medical informatics. Consequently, these concepts need more attention by our scientific community.

[Analysis of the characteristics of the older adults with depression using data mining decision tree analysis].

PubMed

Park, Myonghwa; Choi, Sora; Shin, A Mi; Koo, Chul Hoi

2013-02-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model for the characteristics of older adults with depression using the decision tree method. A large dataset from the 2008 Korean Elderly Survey was used and data of 14,970 elderly people were analyzed. Target variable was depression and 53 input variables were general characteristics, family & social relationship, economic status, health status, health behavior, functional status, leisure & social activity, quality of life, and living environment. Data were analyzed by decision tree analysis, a data mining technique using SPSS Window 19.0 and Clementine 12.0 programs. The decision trees were classified into five different rules to define the characteristics of older adults with depression. Classification & Regression Tree (C&RT) showed the best prediction with an accuracy of 80.81% among data mining models. Factors in the rules were life satisfaction, nutritional status, daily activity difficulty due to pain, functional limitation for basic or instrumental daily activities, number of chronic diseases and daily activity difficulty due to disease. The different rules classified by the decision tree model in this study should contribute as baseline data for discovering informative knowledge and developing interventions tailored to these individual characteristics.

Decision rules for GHB (γ-hydroxybutyric acid) detoxification: a vignette study.

PubMed

Kamal, Rama M; van Iwaarden, Sjacco; Dijkstra, Boukje A G; de Jong, Cornelis A J

2014-02-01

GHB dependent patients can suffer from a severe and sometimes life-threatening withdrawal syndrome. Therefore, most of the patients are treated within inpatient settings. However, some prefers an outpatient approach to treatment. The aim of this study was to develop decision rules for addiction physicians to determine whether an outpatient or inpatient setting should be chosen for a safe GHB detoxification. A prospective vignette study was performed. Forty addiction medicine specialists from various treatment settings and residents of the Addiction Medicine postgraduate Master training were asked to contribute vignettes of GHB dependent patients. A focus group of 15 psychiatrists and addiction medicine specialists was asked to recommend an outpatient or inpatient setting for GHB detoxification treatment per vignette. Finally, five addiction medicine specialists, experts in GHB dependence treatment in the Netherlands, assessed the bio-psychosocial reasons for the choices of the focus group and formulated the recommended criteria. Based on the bio-psychosocial state of twenty vignette patients, addiction physicians and psychiatrists established the criteria and conditions recommended for the indication of an outpatient GHB detoxification. Intensity of addiction (GHB dose ≤32 g/d and frequency of abuse ≤2 h) was stated as the primary criterion in determining the setting as well as the complexity of the psychiatric comorbid disorders. The importance of a stable support system was emphasised. The vignette study resulted in a set of criteria with which addiction medicine specialists can make a weighted decision as to an outpatient or inpatient setting for GHB detoxification. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expert System Shells for Rapid Clinical Decision Support Module Development: An ESTA Demonstration of a Simple Rule-Based System for the Diagnosis of Vaginal Discharge

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Objectives This study demonstrates the feasibility of using expert system shells for rapid clinical decision support module development. Methods A readily available expert system shell was used to build a simple rule-based system for the crude diagnosis of vaginal discharge. Pictures and 'canned text explanations' are extensively used throughout the program to enhance its intuitiveness and educational dimension. All the steps involved in developing the system are documented. Results The system runs under Microsoft Windows and is available as a free download at http://healthcybermap.org/vagdisch.zip (the distribution archive includes both the program's executable and the commented knowledge base source as a text document). The limitations of the demonstration system, such as the lack of provisions for assessing uncertainty or various degrees of severity of a sign or symptom, are discussed in detail. Ways of improving the system, such as porting it to the Web and packaging it as an app for smartphones and tablets, are also presented. Conclusions An easy-to-use expert system shell enables clinicians to rapidly become their own 'knowledge engineers' and develop concise evidence-based decision support modules of simple to moderate complexity, targeting clinical practitioners, medical and nursing students, as well as patients, their lay carers and the general public (where appropriate). In the spirit of the social Web, it is hoped that an online repository can be created to peer review, share and re-use knowledge base modules covering various clinical problems and algorithms, as a service to the clinical community. PMID:23346475

Exceptional Events Submissions Table (2016 Rule)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This table contains examples of air agency submitted exceptional events demonstrations and responsive EPA decision documents that have been prepared and/or acted upon under the 2016 Exceptional Events Rule

Comparison of rule induction, decision trees and formal concept analysis approaches for classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotelnikov, E. V.; Milov, V. R.

2018-05-01

Rule-based learning algorithms have higher transparency and easiness to interpret in comparison with neural networks and deep learning algorithms. These properties make it possible to effectively use such algorithms to solve descriptive tasks of data mining. The choice of an algorithm depends also on its ability to solve predictive tasks. The article compares the quality of the solution of the problems with binary and multiclass classification based on the experiments with six datasets from the UCI Machine Learning Repository. The authors investigate three algorithms: Ripper (rule induction), C4.5 (decision trees), In-Close (formal concept analysis). The results of the experiments show that In-Close demonstrates the best quality of classification in comparison with Ripper and C4.5, however the latter two generate more compact rule sets.

Development and prospects of standardization in the German municipal wastewater sector.

PubMed

Freimuth, Claudia; Oelmann, Mark; Amann, Erwin

2018-04-17

Given the significance of wastewater treatment and disposal for society and the economy together with the omnipresence of standards in the sector, we studied the development and prospects of the rules governing standardization in the German municipal wastewater sector. We thereby provide a detailed description of sector-specific committee-based standardization and significantly contribute to the understanding of this complex arena. We find that the German Association for Water Wastewater and Waste (DWA) has significantly improved its rules on standardization over time by aligning them closer to the generally accepted superordinate standardization principles. However, by focusing on theoretical findings of committee decision-making and committee composition, we argue that there is still scope for improvement with respect to rule reading and rule compliance. We show that the incentives at work in standardization committees are manifold, whereas the representation of the different stakeholder groups needs' remains unbalanced. Due to vested interests and potential strategic behavior of the various agents involved in standardization rule compliance does not necessarily happen naturally. To this end, we claim that the implementation of monitoring mechanisms can be a significant contribution to the institutional design of standardization and briefly discuss the advantages and disadvantages of different schemes. Finally, we show that there is ample need for future research on the optimal design of such a scheme. Even though the analysis relates specifically to the DWA our claims apply to a wide range of standards development organizations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Flexible functional regression methods for estimating individualized treatment regimes.

PubMed

Ciarleglio, Adam; Petkova, Eva; Tarpey, Thaddeus; Ogden, R Todd

2016-01-01

A major focus of personalized medicine is on the development of individualized treatment rules. Good decision rules have the potential to significantly advance patient care and reduce the burden of a host of diseases. Statistical methods for developing such rules are progressing rapidly, but few methods have considered the use of pre-treatment functional data to guide in decision-making. Furthermore, those methods that do allow for the incorporation of functional pre-treatment covariates typically make strong assumptions about the relationships between the functional covariates and the response of interest. We propose two approaches for using functional data to select an optimal treatment that address some of the shortcomings of previously developed methods. Specifically, we combine the flexibility of functional additive regression models with Q -learning or A -learning in order to obtain treatment decision rules. Properties of the corresponding estimators are discussed. Our approaches are evaluated in several realistic settings using synthetic data and are applied to real data arising from a clinical trial comparing two treatments for major depressive disorder in which baseline imaging data are available for subjects who are subsequently treated.

For an indeterministic ethics. The emptiness of the rule in dubio pro vita and life cessation decisions

PubMed Central

Pavlovic, Dragan; Lehmann, Christian; Wendt, Michael

2009-01-01

It is generally claimed that there exist exceptional circumstances when taking human life may be approved and when such actions may be justified on moral grounds. Precise guidelines in the medical field for making such decisions concerning patients who are terminally ill or have irreparable injuries incompatible with a bearable life, are difficult to establish. Recommendations that take the particular logical form of a rule, such as "in dubio pro vita", "when in doubt favour life") have been suggested and in some countries incorporated into legal texts (Germany). We claim here that such a rule is of no value since it is open-ended and always allows for doubt, and a decision to employ measures that would support human life could always be argued to be a valid choice. Preservation of this rule could be encouraged, but giving it the force of law may put physicians at risk, as they may be challenged for choosing to terminate life in otherwise ethically and medically uncontroversial circumstances. PMID:19442284

Control, Contingency and Delegation in Decision-Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Michael, Stephen R.

1979-01-01

Proposes a model which emphasizes the delegation of decision-making authority and managerial control of operations. Suggests that risks can be reduced by using (1) a contingency approach to delegation, (2) decision rules for consistency, (3) decision models for specific situations, (4) vital indicator reports, (5) management by objectives, and (6)…

10 CFR 824.13 - Initial decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Initial decision. 824.13 Section 824.13 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY PROCEDURAL RULES FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF CIVIL PENALTIES FOR CLASSIFIED INFORMATION SECURITY VIOLATIONS § 824.13 Initial decision. (a) The Hearing Officer shall issue an initial decision as soon as...

13 CFR 134.409 - Decision on appeal.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Decision on appeal. 134.409 Section 134.409 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION RULES OF PROCEDURE GOVERNING... § 134.409 Decision on appeal. (a) A decision of the Administrative Law Judge under this subpart is the...

30 CFR 44.41 - Summary decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Summary decision. 44.41 Section 44.41 Mineral... REQUIREMENTS RULES OF PRACTICE FOR PETITIONS FOR MODIFICATION OF MANDATORY SAFETY STANDARDS Summary Decisions § 44.41 Summary decision. (a) No genuine issue of material fact. (1) Where no genuine issue of a...

29 CFR 1905.41 - Summary decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 29 Labor 5 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Summary decision. 1905.41 Section 1905.41 Labor Regulations Relating to Labor (Continued) OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR RULES OF... OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH ACT OF 1970 Summary Decisions § 1905.41 Summary decision. (a) No genuine issue...

A programmable rules engine to provide clinical decision support using HTML forms.

PubMed Central

Heusinkveld, J.; Geissbuhler, A.; Sheshelidze, D.; Miller, R.

1999-01-01

The authors have developed a simple method for specifying rules to be applied to information on HTML forms. This approach allows clinical experts, who lack the programming expertise needed to write CGI scripts, to construct and maintain domain-specific knowledge and ordering capabilities within WizOrder, the order-entry and decision support system used at Vanderbilt Hospital. The clinical knowledge base maintainers use HTML editors to create forms and spreadsheet programs for rule entry. A test environment has been developed which uses Netscape to display forms; the production environment displays forms using an embedded browser. Images Figure 1 PMID:10566470

Against the empirical viability of the Deutsch-Wallace-Everett approach to quantum mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawid, Richard; Thébault, Karim P. Y.

2014-08-01

The subjective Everettian approach to quantum mechanics presented by Deutsch and Wallace fails to constitute an empirically viable theory of quantum phenomena. The decision theoretic implementation of the Born rule realized in this approach provides no basis for rejecting Everettian quantum mechanics in the face of empirical data that contradicts the Born rule. The approach of Greaves and Myrvold, which provides a subjective implementation of the Born rule as well but derives it from empirical data rather than decision theoretic arguments, avoids the problem faced by Deutsch and Wallace and is empirically viable. However, there is good reason to cast doubts on its scientific value.

78 FR 59032 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Extension

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-25

... information collection requirements in its regulation ``Used Motor Vehicle Trade Regulation Rule'' (``Used Car... INFORMATION section below. Write ``Used Car Rule, PRA Comment, P137606'' on your comment and file your comment.... SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The Used Car Rule promotes informed purchasing decisions by requiring used car...

77 FR 19610 - Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey

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2012-04-02

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78 FR 54444 - Advisory Committee on Voluntary Foreign Aid Meeting

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2013-09-04

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75 FR 65606 - NCFRR Meeting Change From November 10 to November 30

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2010-10-26

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76 FR 9740 - National Urban and Community Forestry Advisory Council

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2011-02-22

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77 FR 66432 - Privacy Act of 1974, System of Records

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76 FR 18144 - Committees on Administration & Management, Collaborative Governance, and Judicial Review

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-01

... #0; #0;Notices #0; Federal Register #0; #0; #0;This section of the FEDERAL REGISTER contains documents other than rules #0;or proposed rules that are applicable to the public. Notices of hearings #0;and investigations, committee meetings, agency decisions and rulings, #0;delegations of authority...

78 FR 27178 - Notice of May 17 President's Global Development Council Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-09

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29 CFR 102.25 - Ruling on motions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... motions. An administrative law judge designated by the chief administrative law judge, by the associate... his decision. Whenever the administrative law judge has reserved his ruling on any motion, and the... 29 Labor 2 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Ruling on motions. 102.25 Section 102.25 Labor Regulations...

29 CFR 102.25 - Ruling on motions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... motions. An administrative law judge designated by the chief administrative law judge, by the associate... his decision. Whenever the administrative law judge has reserved his ruling on any motion, and the... 29 Labor 2 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Ruling on motions. 102.25 Section 102.25 Labor Regulations...

29 CFR 102.25 - Ruling on motions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... motions. An administrative law judge designated by the chief administrative law judge, by the associate... his decision. Whenever the administrative law judge has reserved his ruling on any motion, and the... 29 Labor 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Ruling on motions. 102.25 Section 102.25 Labor Regulations...

29 CFR 102.25 - Ruling on motions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... motions. An administrative law judge designated by the chief administrative law judge, by the associate... his decision. Whenever the administrative law judge has reserved his ruling on any motion, and the... 29 Labor 2 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Ruling on motions. 102.25 Section 102.25 Labor Regulations...

43 CFR 4.801 - Suspension of rules.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... Special Procedural Rules Applicable to Practice and Procedure for Hearings, Decisions, and Administrative... determination that no party will be unduly prejudiced and the ends of justice will thereby be served. ...

43 CFR 4.801 - Suspension of rules.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... Special Procedural Rules Applicable to Practice and Procedure for Hearings, Decisions, and Administrative... determination that no party will be unduly prejudiced and the ends of justice will thereby be served. ...

43 CFR 4.801 - Suspension of rules.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... Special Procedural Rules Applicable to Practice and Procedure for Hearings, Decisions, and Administrative... determination that no party will be unduly prejudiced and the ends of justice will thereby be served. ...

43 CFR 4.801 - Suspension of rules.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... Special Procedural Rules Applicable to Practice and Procedure for Hearings, Decisions, and Administrative... determination that no party will be unduly prejudiced and the ends of justice will thereby be served. ...

37 CFR 354.2 - Novel questions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

..., or rulings under the Copyright Act of the Copyright Royalty Judges, the Librarian of Congress, the... the current decisions, determinations, or rulings of the Register of Copyrights or the Librarian of...

Clinical decision rules for termination of resuscitation in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

PubMed

Sherbino, Jonathan; Keim, Samuel M; Davis, Daniel P

2010-01-01

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) has a low probability of survival to hospital discharge. Four clinical decision rules (CDRs) have been validated to identify patients with no probability of survival. Three of these rules focus on exclusive prehospital basic life support care for OHCA, and two of these rules focus on prehospital advanced life support care for OHCA. Can a CDR for the termination of resuscitation identify a patient with no probability of survival in the setting of OHCA? Six validation studies were selected from a PubMed search. A structured review of each of the studies is presented. In OHCA receiving basic life support care, the BLS-TOR (basic life support termination of resuscitation) rule has a positive predictive value for death of 99.5% (95% confidence interval 98.9-99.8%), and decreases the transportation of all patients by 62.6%. This rule has been appropriately validated for widespread use. In OHCA receiving advanced life support care, no current rule has been appropriately validated for widespread use. The BLS-TOR rule is a simple rule that identifies patients who will not survive OHCA. Further research is required to identify similarly robust CDRs for patients receiving advanced life support care in the setting of OHCA. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

When weight management lasts. Lower perceived rule complexity increases adherence.

PubMed

Mata, Jutta; Todd, Peter M; Lippke, Sonia

2010-02-01

Maintaining behavior change is one of the major challenges in weight management and long-term weight loss. We investigated the impact of the cognitive complexity of eating rules on adherence to weight management programs. We studied whether popular weight management programs can fail if participants find the rules too complicated from a cognitive perspective, meaning that individuals are not able to recall or process all required information for deciding what to eat. The impact on program adherence of participants' perceptions of eating rule complexity and other behavioral factors known to influence adherence (including previous weight management, self-efficacy, and planning) was assessed via a longitudinal online questionnaire given to 390 participants on two different popular weight management regimens. As we show, the regimens, Weight Watchers and a popular German recipe diet (Brigitte), strongly differ in objective rule complexity and thus their cognitive demands on the dieter. Perceived rule complexity was the strongest factor associated with increased risk of quitting the cognitively demanding weight management program (Weight Watchers); it was not related to adherence length for the low cognitive demand program (Brigitte). Higher self-efficacy generally helped in maintaining a program. The results emphasize the importance of considering rule complexity to promote long-term weight management. 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developing Novel Reservoir Rule Curves Using Seasonal Inflow Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tseng, Hsin-yi; Tung, Ching-pin

2015-04-01

Due to significant seasonal rainfall variations, reservoirs and their flexible operational rules are indispensable to Taiwan. Furthermore, with the intensifying impacts of climate change on extreme climate, the frequency of droughts in Taiwan has been increasing in recent years. Drought is a creeping phenomenon, the slow onset character of drought makes it difficult to detect at an early stage, and causes delays on making the best decision of allocating water. For these reasons, novel reservoir rule curves using projected seasonal streamflow are proposed in this study, which can potentially reduce the adverse effects of drought. This study dedicated establishing new rule curves which consider both current available storage and anticipated monthly inflows with leading time of two months to reduce the risk of water shortage. The monthly inflows are projected based on the seasonal climate forecasts from Central Weather Bureau (CWB), which a weather generation model is used to produce daily weather data for the hydrological component of the GWLF. To incorporate future monthly inflow projections into rule curves, this study designs a decision flow index which is a linear combination of current available storage and inflow projections with leading time of 2 months. By optimizing linear relationship coefficients of decision flow index, the shape of rule curves and the percent of water supply in each zone, the best rule curves to decrease water shortage risk and impacts can be developed. The Shimen Reservoir in the northern Taiwan is used as a case study to demonstrate the proposed method. Existing rule curves (M5 curves) of Shimen Reservoir are compared with two cases of new rule curves, including hindcast simulations and historic seasonal forecasts. The results show new rule curves can decrease the total water shortage ratio, and in addition, it can also allocate shortage amount to preceding months to avoid extreme shortage events. Even though some uncertainties in historic forecasts would result unnecessary discounts of water supply, it still performs better than M5 curves during droughts.

77 FR 57173 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; C2 Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing of a Proposed...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-09-17

... Organizations; C2 Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing of a Proposed Rule Change Relating to Complex... its Rules regarding complex order auctions. The text of the proposed rule change is available on the... basis, the Exchange may activate the electronic complex order request for responses (``RFR'') auction...

Prospective validation of a clinical decision rule to identify patients presenting to the emergency department with chest pain who can safely be removed from cardiac monitoring

PubMed Central

Syed, Shahbaz; Gatien, Mathieu; Perry, Jeffrey J.; Chaudry, Hina; Kim, Soo-Min; Kwong, Kenneth; Mukarram, Muhammad; Thiruganasambandamoorthy, Venkatesh

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: Most patients with chest pain in the emergency department are assigned to cardiac monitoring for several hours, blocking access for patients in greater need. We sought to validate a previously derived decision rule for safe removal of patients from cardiac monitoring after initial evaluation in the emergency department. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled adults (age ≥ 18 yr) who presented with chest pain and were assigned to cardiac monitoring at 2 academic emergency departments over 18 months. We collected standardized baseline characteristics, findings from clinical evaluations and predictors for the Ottawa Chest Pain Cardiac Monitoring Rule: whether the patient is currently free of chest pain, and whether the electrocardiogram is normal or shows only nonspecific changes. The outcome was an arrhythmia requiring intervention in the emergency department or within 8 hours of presentation to the emergency department. We calculated diagnostic characteristics for the clinical prediction rule. RESULTS: We included 796 patients (mean age 63.8 yr, 55.8% male, 8.9% admitted to hospital). Fifteen patients (1.9%) had an arrhythmia, and the rule performed with the following characteristics: sensitivity 100% (95% confidence interval [CI] 78.2%–100%) and specificity 36.4% (95% CI 33.0%–39.6%). Application of the Ottawa Chest Pain Cardiac Monitoring Rule would have allowed 284 out of 796 patients (35.7%) to be safely removed from cardiac monitoring. INTERPRETATION: We successfully validated the decision rule for safe removal of a large subset of patients with chest pain from cardiac monitoring after initial evaluation in the emergency department. Implementation of this simple yet highly sensitive rule will allow for improved use of health care resources. PMID:28246315

Termination of resuscitation in the prehospital setting: A comparison of decisions in clinical practice vs. recommendations of a termination rule.

PubMed

Verhaert, Dominique V M; Bonnes, Judith L; Nas, Joris; Keuper, Wessel; van Grunsven, Pierre M; Smeets, Joep L R M; de Boer, Menko Jan; Brouwer, Marc A

2016-03-01

Of the proposed algorithms that provide guidance for in-field termination of resuscitation (TOR) decisions, the guidelines for cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) refer to the basic and advanced life support (ALS)-TOR rules. To assess the potential consequences of implementation of the ALS-TOR rule, we performed a case-by-case evaluation of our in-field termination decisions and assessed the corresponding recommendations of the ALS-TOR rule. Cohort of non-traumatic out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA)-patients who were resuscitated by the ALS-practising emergency medical service (EMS) in the Nijmegen area (2008-2011). The ALS-TOR rule recommends termination in case all following criteria are met: unwitnessed arrest, no bystander CPR, no shock delivery, no return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC). Of the 598 cases reviewed, resuscitative efforts were terminated in the field in 46% and 15% survived to discharge. The ALS-TOR rule would have recommended in-field termination in only 6% of patients, due to high percentages of witnessed arrests (73%) and bystander CPR (54%). In current practice, absence of ROSC was the most important determinant of termination [aOR 35.6 (95% CI 18.3-69.3)]. Weaker associations were found for: unwitnessed and non-public arrests, non-shockable initial rhythms and longer EMS-response times. While designed to optimise hospital transportations, application of the ALS-TOR rule would almost double our hospital transportation rate to over 90% of OHCA-cases due to the favourable arrest circumstances in our region. Prior to implementation of the ALS-TOR rule, local evaluation of the potential consequences for the efficiency of triage is to be recommended and initiatives to improve field-triage for ALS-based EMS-systems are eagerly awaited. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Allocating health care resources: a questionnaire experiment on the predictive success of rules.

PubMed

Ahlert, Marlies; Schwettmann, Lars

2017-06-26

The topic of this paper is related to equity in health within a country. In public health care sectors of many countries decisions on priority setting with respect to treatment of different types of diseases or patient groups are implicitly or explicitly made. Priorities are realized by allocation decisions for medical resources where moral judgments play an important role with respect to goals and measures that should be applied. The aim of this study is to explore the moral intuitions held in the German society related to priorities in medical treatment. We use an experimental questionnaire method established in the Empirical Social Choice literature. Participants are asked to make decisions in a sequence of distributive problems where a limited amount of treatment time has to be allocated to hypothetically described patients. The decision problems serve as an intuition pump. Situations are systematically varied with respect to patients' initial health levels, their ability to benefit from treatment time, and the amount of treatment time available. Subjects are also asked to describe their deliberations. We focus on the acceptance of different allocation principles including equity concepts and utilitarian properties. We investigate rule characteristics like order preservation or monotonicity with respect to resources, severity, or effectiveness. We check the consistency of individual choices with stated reasoning. The goals and allocation principles revealed show that the moral intuitions held by our experimental subjects are much more complex than the principles commonly applied in health economic theory. Especially, cost-utility principles are rarely applied, whereas the goal of equality of health gain is observed more often. The principle not to leave any patient untreated is very dominant. We also observe the degrees to which extent certain monotonicity principles, known from welfare economics, are followed. Subjects were able to describe their moral judgments in written statements. We also find evidence that they followed their respective intuitions very consistently in their decisions. Findings of the kind presented in this paper may serve as an important input for the public and political discussion when decisions on priorities in the public health care sector are formed.

How we became the Schmams: conceptualizations of fairness in the decision-making process for Latina/o children.

PubMed

Langhout, Regina Day; Kohfeldt, Danielle M; Ellison, Erin Rose

2011-12-01

The current study examines 16 Latina/o fifth grade children's desires for a decision-making structure within a youth participatory action research (yPAR) program. When given the choices of consensus, majority rule, authoritarian rule, delegation, and random choice models, children chose random choice. Procedural, distributive and emotional justice were heavily weighted in their reasoning around fairness and decision making. Many thought random choice offered the best alternative because it flattened power hierarchies so that each child would, at some point, have the power to make a decision. Additionally, children argued that the neutrality of random choice allowed them to sidestep interpersonal tensions. Implications include how social identities inform definitions of fairness and how yPAR programs should work with youth around how they will make decisions.

Deontic reasoning with emotional content: evolutionary psychology or decision theory?

PubMed

Perham, Nick; Oaksford, Mike

2005-09-10

Three experiments investigated the contrasting predictions of the evolutionary and decision-theoretic approaches to deontic reasoning. Two experiments embedded a hazard management (HM) rule in a social contract scenario that should lead to competition between innate modules. A 3rd experiment used a pure HM task. Threatening material was also introduced into the antecedent, p, of a deontic rule, if p then must q. According to the evolutionary approach, more HM responses (Cosmides & Tooby, 2000) are predicted when p is threatening, whereas decision theory predicts fewer. All 3 experiments were consistent with decision theory. Other theories are discussed, and it is concluded that they cannot account for the behavior observed in these experiments. 2005 Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc.

Community detection in complex networks by using membrane algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Chuang; Fan, Linan; Liu, Zhou; Dai, Xiang; Xu, Jiamei; Chang, Baoren

Community detection in complex networks is a key problem of network analysis. In this paper, a new membrane algorithm is proposed to solve the community detection in complex networks. The proposed algorithm is based on membrane systems, which consists of objects, reaction rules, and a membrane structure. Each object represents a candidate partition of a complex network, and the quality of objects is evaluated according to network modularity. The reaction rules include evolutionary rules and communication rules. Evolutionary rules are responsible for improving the quality of objects, which employ the differential evolutionary algorithm to evolve objects. Communication rules implement the information exchanged among membranes. Finally, the proposed algorithm is evaluated on synthetic, real-world networks with real partitions known and the large-scaled networks with real partitions unknown. The experimental results indicate the superior performance of the proposed algorithm in comparison with other experimental algorithms.

Automatic Recognition of Phonemes Using a Syntactic Processor for Error Correction.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-12-01

OF PHONEMES USING A SYNTACTIC PROCESSOR FOR ERROR CORRECTION THESIS AFIT/GE/EE/8D-45 Robert B. ’Taylor 2Lt USAF Approved for public release...distribution unlimilted. AbP AFIT/GE/EE/ 80D-45 AUTOMATIC RECOGNITION OF PHONEMES USING A SYNTACTIC PROCESSOR FOR ERROR CORRECTION THESIS Presented to the...Testing ..................... 37 Bayes Decision Rule for Minimum Error ........... 37 Bayes Decision Rule for Minimum Risk ............ 39 Mini Max Test

Systematic Analysis of the Decision Rules of Traditional Chinese Medicine

PubMed Central

Bin-Rong, Ma; Xi-Yuan, Jiang; Su-Ming, Liso; Huai-ning, Zhu; Xiu-ru, Lin

1981-01-01

Chinese traditional medicine has evolved over many centuries, and has accumulated a body of observed relationships between symptoms, signs and prognoses, and the efficacy of alternative treatments and prescriptions. With the assistance of a computer-based clinical data base for recording the diagnostic and therapeutic practice of skilled practitioners of Chinese traditional medicine, a systematic program is being conducted to identify and define the clinical decision-making rules that underlie current practice.

Knowledge-based reasoning in the Paladin tactical decision generation system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chappell, Alan R.

1993-01-01

A real-time tactical decision generation system for air combat engagements, Paladin, has been developed. A pilot's job in air combat includes tasks that are largely symbolic. These symbolic tasks are generally performed through the application of experience and training (i.e. knowledge) gathered over years of flying a fighter aircraft. Two such tasks, situation assessment and throttle control, are identified and broken out in Paladin to be handled by specialized knowledge based systems. Knowledge pertaining to these tasks is encoded into rule-bases to provide the foundation for decisions. Paladin uses a custom built inference engine and a partitioned rule-base structure to give these symbolic results in real-time. This paper provides an overview of knowledge-based reasoning systems as a subset of rule-based systems. The knowledge used by Paladin in generating results as well as the system design for real-time execution is discussed.

Learning a New Selection Rule in Visual and Frontal Cortex.

PubMed

van der Togt, Chris; Stănişor, Liviu; Pooresmaeili, Arezoo; Albantakis, Larissa; Deco, Gustavo; Roelfsema, Pieter R

2016-08-01

How do you make a decision if you do not know the rules of the game? Models of sensory decision-making suggest that choices are slow if evidence is weak, but they may only apply if the subject knows the task rules. Here, we asked how the learning of a new rule influences neuronal activity in the visual (area V1) and frontal cortex (area FEF) of monkeys. We devised a new icon-selection task. On each day, the monkeys saw 2 new icons (small pictures) and learned which one was relevant. We rewarded eye movements to a saccade target connected to the relevant icon with a curve. Neurons in visual and frontal cortex coded the monkey's choice, because the representation of the selected curve was enhanced. Learning delayed the neuronal selection signals and we uncovered the cause of this delay in V1, where learning to select the relevant icon caused an early suppression of surrounding image elements. These results demonstrate that the learning of a new rule causes a transition from fast and random decisions to a more considerate strategy that takes additional time and they reveal the contribution of visual and frontal cortex to the learning process. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press.

Design and usability of heuristic-based deliberation tools for women facing amniocentesis.

PubMed

Durand, Marie-Anne; Wegwarth, Odette; Boivin, Jacky; Elwyn, Glyn

2012-03-01

Evidence suggests that in decision contexts characterized by uncertainty and time constraints (e.g. health-care decisions), fast and frugal decision-making strategies (heuristics) may perform better than complex rules of reasoning. To examine whether it is possible to design deliberation components in decision support interventions using simple models (fast and frugal heuristics). The 'Take The Best' heuristic (i.e. selection of a 'most important reason') and 'The Tallying' integration algorithm (i.e. unitary weighing of pros and cons) were used to develop two deliberation components embedded in a Web-based decision support intervention for women facing amniocentesis testing. Ten researchers (recruited from 15), nine health-care providers (recruited from 28) and ten pregnant women (recruited from 14) who had recently been offered amniocentesis testing appraised evolving versions of 'your most important reason' (Take The Best) and 'weighing it up' (Tallying). Most researchers found the tools useful in facilitating decision making although emphasized the need for simple instructions and clear layouts. Health-care providers however expressed concerns regarding the usability and clarity of the tools. By contrast, 7 out of 10 pregnant women found the tools useful in weighing up the pros and cons of each option, helpful in structuring and clarifying their thoughts and visualizing their decision efforts. Several pregnant women felt that 'weighing it up' and 'your most important reason' were not appropriate when facing such a difficult and emotional decision. Theoretical approaches based on fast and frugal heuristics can be used to develop deliberation tools that provide helpful support to patients facing real-world decisions about amniocentesis. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Validating a decision tree for serious infection: diagnostic accuracy in acutely ill children in ambulatory care.

PubMed

Verbakel, Jan Y; Lemiengre, Marieke B; De Burghgraeve, Tine; De Sutter, An; Aertgeerts, Bert; Bullens, Dominique M A; Shinkins, Bethany; Van den Bruel, Ann; Buntinx, Frank

2015-08-07

Acute infection is the most common presentation of children in primary care with only few having a serious infection (eg, sepsis, meningitis, pneumonia). To avoid complications or death, early recognition and adequate referral are essential. Clinical prediction rules have the potential to improve diagnostic decision-making for rare but serious conditions. In this study, we aimed to validate a recently developed decision tree in a new but similar population. Diagnostic accuracy study validating a clinical prediction rule. Acutely ill children presenting to ambulatory care in Flanders, Belgium, consisting of general practice and paediatric assessment in outpatient clinics or the emergency department. Physicians were asked to score the decision tree in every child. The outcome of interest was hospital admission for at least 24 h with a serious infection within 5 days after initial presentation. We report the diagnostic accuracy of the decision tree in sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios and predictive values. In total, 8962 acute illness episodes were included, of which 283 lead to admission to hospital with a serious infection. Sensitivity of the decision tree was 100% (95% CI 71.5% to 100%) at a specificity of 83.6% (95% CI 82.3% to 84.9%) in the general practitioner setting with 17% of children testing positive. In the paediatric outpatient and emergency department setting, sensitivities were below 92%, with specificities below 44.8%. In an independent validation cohort, this clinical prediction rule has shown to be extremely sensitive to identify children at risk of hospital admission for a serious infection in general practice, making it suitable for ruling out. NCT02024282. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Complexity, Training Paradigm Design, and the Contribution of Memory Subsystems to Grammar Learning

PubMed Central

Ettlinger, Marc; Wong, Patrick C. M.

2016-01-01

Although there is variability in nonnative grammar learning outcomes, the contributions of training paradigm design and memory subsystems are not well understood. To examine this, we presented learners with an artificial grammar that formed words via simple and complex morphophonological rules. Across three experiments, we manipulated training paradigm design and measured subjects' declarative, procedural, and working memory subsystems. Experiment 1 demonstrated that passive, exposure-based training boosted learning of both simple and complex grammatical rules, relative to no training. Additionally, procedural memory correlated with simple rule learning, whereas declarative memory correlated with complex rule learning. Experiment 2 showed that presenting corrective feedback during the test phase did not improve learning. Experiment 3 revealed that structuring the order of training so that subjects are first exposed to the simple rule and then the complex improved learning. The cumulative findings shed light on the contributions of grammatical complexity, training paradigm design, and domain-general memory subsystems in determining grammar learning success. PMID:27391085

Ethical safety of deep brain stimulation: A study on moral decision-making in Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Fumagalli, Manuela; Marceglia, Sara; Cogiamanian, Filippo; Ardolino, Gianluca; Picascia, Marta; Barbieri, Sergio; Pravettoni, Gabriella; Pacchetti, Claudio; Priori, Alberto

2015-07-01

The possibility that deep brain stimulation (DBS) in Parkinson's disease (PD) alters patients' decisions and actions, even temporarily, raises important clinical, ethical and legal questions. Abnormal moral decision-making can lead to ethical rules violations. Previous experiments demonstrated the subthalamic (STN) activation during moral decision-making. Here we aim to study whether STN DBS can affect moral decision-making in PD patients. Eleven patients with PD and bilateral STN DBS implant performed a computerized moral task in ON and OFF stimulation conditions. A control group of PD patients without DBS implant performed the same experimental protocol. All patients underwent motor, cognitive and psychological assessments. STN stimulation was not able to modify neither reaction times nor responses to moral task both when we compared the ON and the OFF state in the same patient (reaction times, p = .416) and when we compared DBS patients with those treated only with the best medical treatment (reaction times: p = .408, responses: p = .776). Moral judgment is the result of a complex process, requiring cognitive executive functions, problem-solving, anticipations of consequences of an action, conflict processing, emotional evaluation of context and of possible outcomes, and involving different brain areas and neural circuits. Our data show that STN DBS leaves unaffected moral decisions thus implying relevant clinical and ethical implications for DBS consequences on patients' behavior, on decision-making and on judgment ability. In conclusion, the technique can be considered safe on moral behavior. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Antibiotics for coughing in general practice: a qualitative decision analysis.

PubMed

Coenen, S; Van Royen, P; Vermeire, E; Hermann, I; Denekens, J

2000-10-01

In family practice, medical decisions are prompted most often by complaints about coughing. There is no single yardstick for the differential diagnosis of respiratory tract infections (RTIs). In 80% of cases, the excessive use of antibiotics in the treatment of RTIs is caused by the prescription behaviour of GPs. Our aim was to explicate GPs' diagnostic (and therapeutic) decisions regarding adult patients who consult them with complaints about coughing, and to investigate what determines decision making. Exploratory, descriptive focus groups were held with GPs. Hypotheses were generated on the basis of 'qualitative content analysis'. Results. Twenty-four GPs participated in four semi-structured group discussions. In order to differentiate RTIs from other possible diagnoses, less likely diagnoses were not ruled out explicitly. In the case of suspected RTI, there was a low degree of certainty in the differentiation between RTIs (e.g. between bronchitis and pneumonia). Clinical signs and symptoms, which determine the probability of disease, often left GPs with reasonable diagnostic doubt. In the end, the decision whether or not to prescribe antibiotics was taken. GPs' prescription behaviour was also determined by doctor- and patient-related factors (e.g. having missed pneumonia once, patient expectations). The 'chagrin factor' explains why these factors lead to a shift in the action threshold, in favour of antibiotics. This inductive research method enabled the generation of meaningful hypotheses regarding the complex decision processes pursued by GPs. The authors are developing an educational intervention that builds on these findings, focusing on the prescribing decision.

76 FR 77230 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request

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2011-12-12

... consumers in making informed purchasing decisions, and recordkeeping requirements that assist the Commission... Rules establish disclosure requirements that assist consumers in making informed purchasing decisions... consumers in making informed purchasing decisions, and recordkeeping requirements that assist the Commission...

76 FR 20233 - Appliance Labeling Rule

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2011-04-12

... possible to help consumers make informed purchasing decisions.\\5\\ Also, Earthjustice noted that NEMA's... help consumers understand the new label and use it in purchasing decisions. In addition, extending the... the effective date was originally established. In reaching this decision, the Commission considered...

In the Way of Peacemaker Guide Curve between Water Supply and Flood Control for Short Term Reservoir Operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uysal, G.; Sensoy, A.; Yavuz, O.; Sorman, A. A.; Gezgin, T.

2012-04-01

Effective management of a controlled reservoir system where it involves multiple and sometimes conflicting objectives is a complex problem especially in real time operations. Yuvacık Dam Reservoir, located in the Marmara region of Turkey, is built to supply annual demand of 142 hm3 water for Kocaeli city requires such a complex management strategy since it has relatively small (51 hm3) effective capacity. On the other hand, the drainage basin is fed by both rainfall and snowmelt since the elevation ranges between 80 - 1548 m. Excessive water must be stored behind the radial gates between February and May in terms of sustainability especially for summer and autumn periods. Moreover, the downstream channel physical conditions constraint the spillway releases up to 100 m3/s although the spillway is large enough to handle major floods. Thus, this situation makes short term release decisions the challenging task. Long term water supply curves, based on historical inflows and annual water demand, are in conflict with flood regulation (control) levels, based on flood attenuation and routing curves, for this reservoir. A guide curve, that is generated using both water supply and flood control of downstream channel, generally corresponds to upper elevation of conservation pool for simulation of a reservoir. However, sometimes current operation necessitates exceeding this target elevation. Since guide curves can be developed as a function of external variables, the water potential of a basin can be an indicator to explain current conditions and decide on the further strategies. Besides, releases with respect to guide curve are managed and restricted by user-defined rules. Although the managers operate the reservoir due to several variable conditions and predictions, still the simulation model using variable guide curve is an urgent need to test alternatives quickly. To that end, using HEC-ResSim, the several variable guide curves are defined to meet the requirements by taking inflow, elevation, precipitation and snow water equivalent into consideration to propose alternative simulations as a decision support system. After that, the releases are subjected to user-defined rules. Thus, previous year reservoir simulations are compared with observed reservoir levels and releases. Hypothetical flood scenarios are tested in case of different storm event timing and sizing. Numerical weather prediction data of Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) can be used for temperature and precipitation forecasts that will form the inputs for a hydrological model. The estimated flows can be used for real time short term decisions for reservoir simulation based on variable guide curve and user defined rules.

Cost-effectiveness on a local level: whether and when to adopt a new technology.

PubMed

Woertman, Willem H; Van De Wetering, Gijs; Adang, Eddy M M

2014-04-01

Cost-effectiveness analysis has become a widely accepted tool for decision making in health care. The standard textbook cost-effectiveness analysis focuses on whether to make the switch from an old or common practice technology to an innovative technology, and in doing so, it takes a global perspective. In this article, we are interested in a local perspective, and we look at the questions of whether and when the switch from old to new should be made. A new approach to cost-effectiveness from a local (e.g., a hospital) perspective, by means of a mathematical model for cost-effectiveness that explicitly incorporates time, is proposed. A decision rule is derived for establishing whether a new technology should be adopted, as well as a general rule for establishing when it pays to postpone adoption by 1 more period, and a set of decision rules that can be used to determine the optimal timing of adoption. Finally, a simple example is presented to illustrate our model and how it leads to optimal decision making in a number of cases.

A clinical decision rule and D-dimer testing to rule out upper extremity deep vein thrombosis in high-risk patients.

PubMed

van Es, Nick; Bleker, Suzanne M; Di Nisio, Marcello; Kleinjan, Ankie; Beyer-Westendorf, Jan; Camporese, Giuseppe; Kamphuisen, Pieter W; Büller, Harry R; Bossuyt, Patrick M

2016-12-01

In a management study, a diagnostic algorithm consisting of a clinical decision rule, D-dimer, and ultrasonography was shown to safely exclude upper extremity deep vein thrombosis (UEDVT). Efficiency may be lower in high-risk subgroups: those with a central venous catheter or pacemaker, inpatients, cancer, and elderly patients. Data of 406 patients with suspected UEDVT enrolled in a prospective management study were used for the present analysis. The aim was to evaluate the efficiency of the algorithm in subgroups, defined as the proportion of patients in whom imaging could be safely withheld based on the combination of a decision rule result indicating "UEDVT unlikely" and a normal D-dimer result. The strategy excluded UEDVT in 87 of 406 patients (21%); ultrasonography was withheld in these patients and none developed UEDVT during 3months of follow-up. In contrast, ultrasonography could be withheld in only 4 of 92 patients with a catheter or pacemaker (4.3%; 95% CI: 1.7% to 11%) and in 4 of 83 inpatients (4.8%; 95% CI: 1.9% to 12%). The efficiency was 11% in patients with cancer and 13% in those older than 75years. Although the combination of a decision rule and D-dimer testing is safe in excluding UEDVT in the overall population of patients with suspected UEDVT, its efficiency appears limited in some subgroups, in particular those with a central venous catheter or pacemaker, and inpatients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A clinical decision support system for diagnosis of Allergic Rhinitis based on intradermal skin tests.

PubMed

Jabez Christopher, J; Khanna Nehemiah, H; Kannan, A

2015-10-01

Allergic Rhinitis is a universal common disease, especially in populated cities and urban areas. Diagnosis and treatment of Allergic Rhinitis will improve the quality of life of allergic patients. Though skin tests remain the gold standard test for diagnosis of allergic disorders, clinical experts are required for accurate interpretation of test outcomes. This work presents a clinical decision support system (CDSS) to assist junior clinicians in the diagnosis of Allergic Rhinitis. Intradermal Skin tests were performed on patients who had plausible allergic symptoms. Based on patient׳s history, 40 clinically relevant allergens were tested. 872 patients who had allergic symptoms were considered for this study. The rule based classification approach and the clinical test results were used to develop and validate the CDSS. Clinical relevance of the CDSS was compared with the Score for Allergic Rhinitis (SFAR). Tests were conducted for junior clinicians to assess their diagnostic capability in the absence of an expert. The class based Association rule generation approach provides a concise set of rules that is further validated by clinical experts. The interpretations of the experts are considered as the gold standard. The CDSS diagnoses the presence or absence of rhinitis with an accuracy of 88.31%. The allergy specialist and the junior clinicians prefer the rule based approach for its comprehendible knowledge model. The Clinical Decision Support Systems with rule based classification approach assists junior doctors and clinicians in the diagnosis of Allergic Rhinitis to make reliable decisions based on the reports of intradermal skin tests. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

76 FR 31385 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; International Securities Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing of...

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2011-05-31

... Complex Orders May 24, 2011. Pursuant to Section 19(b)(1) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the... proposes to specify in its rules that complex orders may be entered into the Price Improvement Mechanism... of this rule filing is to specify in the Exchange's rules that complex orders may be entered into the...

Impairment of social and moral behavior related to early damage in human prefrontal cortex.

PubMed

Anderson, S W; Bechara, A; Damasio, H; Tranel, D; Damasio, A R

1999-11-01

The long-term consequences of early prefrontal cortex lesions occurring before 16 months were investigated in two adults. As is the case when such damage occurs in adulthood, the two early-onset patients had severely impaired social behavior despite normal basic cognitive abilities, and showed insensitivity to future consequences of decisions, defective autonomic responses to punishment contingencies and failure to respond to behavioral interventions. Unlike adult-onset patients, however, the two patients had defective social and moral reasoning, suggesting that the acquisition of complex social conventions and moral rules had been impaired. Thus early-onset prefrontal damage resulted in a syndrome resembling psychopathy.

[Diagnosis and treatment guidelines for difficult-to-control asthma in children].

PubMed

Navarro Merino, M; Andrés Martín, A; Asensio de la Cruz, O; García García, M L; Liñán Cortes, S; Villa Asensi, J R

2009-12-01

Children suffering from difficult-to-control asthma (DCA) require frequent appointments with their physician, complex treatment regimes and often admissions to hospital. Less than 5% of the asthmatic population suffer this condition. DCA must be correctly characterised to rule out false causes of DCA and requires making a differential diagnosis from pathologies that mimic asthma, comorbidity, environmental and psychological factors, and analysing the factors to determine poor treatment compliance. In true DCA cases, inflammation studies (exhaled nitric oxide, induced sputum, broncho-alveolar lavage and bronchial biopsy), pulmonary function and other clinical aspects can classify DCA into different phenotypes which could make therapeutic decision-making easier.

Law & psychiatry: mental retardation and the death penalty: after Atkins.

PubMed

Appelbaum, Paul S

2009-10-01

In Atkins v. Virginia the U.S. Supreme Court declared execution of persons with mental retardation to constitute cruel and unusual punishment, and thus to be unconstitutional under the Eighth Amendment. However, the Court left all considerations regarding how to implement the decision explicitly to the states. Since Atkins was decided in 2002, legislatures, courts, and mental health experts have struggled with its implementation, highlighting the complexities that can arise when the courts base legal rules on clinical findings. This column reviews the Atkins case and considers the challenges associated with a clinical determination that can have life-or-death consequences for capital defendants.

Anxiety Evokes Hypofrontality and Disrupts Rule-Relevant Encoding by Dorsomedial Prefrontal Cortex Neurons.

PubMed

Park, Junchol; Wood, Jesse; Bondi, Corina; Del Arco, Alberto; Moghaddam, Bita

2016-03-16

Anxiety is a debilitating symptom of most psychiatric disorders, including major depression, post-traumatic stress disorder, schizophrenia, and addiction. A detrimental aspect of anxiety is disruption of prefrontal cortex (PFC)-mediated executive functions, such as flexible decision making. Here we sought to understand how anxiety modulates PFC neuronal encoding of flexible shifting between behavioral strategies. We used a clinically substantiated anxiogenic treatment to induce sustained anxiety in rats and recorded from dorsomedial PFC (dmPFC) and orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) neurons while they were freely moving in a home cage and while they performed a PFC-dependent task that required flexible switches between rules in two distinct perceptual dimensions. Anxiety elicited a sustained background "hypofrontality" in dmPFC and OFC by reducing the firing rate of spontaneously active neuronal subpopulations. During task performance, the impact of anxiety was subtle, but, consistent with human data, behavior was selectively impaired when previously correct conditions were presented as conflicting choices. This impairment was associated with reduced recruitment of dmPFC neurons that selectively represented task rules at the time of action. OFC rule representation was not affected by anxiety. These data indicate that a neural substrate of the decision-making deficits in anxiety is diminished dmPFC neuronal encoding of task rules during conflict-related actions. Given the translational relevance of the model used here, the data provide a neuronal encoding mechanism for how anxiety biases decision making when the choice involves overcoming a conflict. They also demonstrate that PFC encoding of actions, as opposed to cues or outcome, is especially vulnerable to anxiety. A debilitating aspect of anxiety is its impact on decision making and flexible control of behavior. These cognitive constructs depend on proper functioning of the prefrontal cortex (PFC). Understanding how anxiety affects PFC encoding of cognitive events is of great clinical and evolutionary significance. Using a clinically valid experimental model, we find that, under anxiety, decision making may be skewed by salient and conflicting environmental stimuli at the expense of flexible top-down guided choices. We also find that anxiety suppresses spontaneous activity of PFC neurons, and weakens encoding of task rules by dorsomedial PFC neurons. These data provide a neuronal encoding scheme for how anxiety disengages PFC during decision making. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/363322-14$15.00/0.

On the Lawfulness of the Decision to Terminate Memory Search

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harbison, J. Isaiah; Dougherty, Michael R.; Davelaar, Eddy J.; Fayyad, Basma

2009-01-01

Nearly every memory retrieval episode ends with a decision to terminate memory search. Yet, no research has investigated whether these search termination decisions are systematic, let alone whether they are made consistent with a particular rule. In the present paper, we used a modified free-recall paradigm to examine the decision to terminate…

13 CFR 134.715 - Can a Judge reconsider his decision?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Can a Judge reconsider his decision? 134.715 Section 134.715 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION RULES OF....715 Can a Judge reconsider his decision? (a) The Judge may reconsider an appeal decision within 20...

49 CFR 1503.657 - Appeal from initial decision.

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2010-10-01

... AND ENFORCEMENT PROCEDURES Rules of Practice in TSA Civil Penalty Actions § 1503.657 Appeal from... order of the TSA decision maker have been entered on the record. (b) Issues on appeal. A party may... appeal with the consent of the TSA decision maker. If the TSA decision maker grants an extension of time...

29 CFR 102.48 - Action of the Board upon expiration of time to file exceptions to the administrative law judge's...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... exceptions to the administrative law judge's decision; decisions by the Board; extraordinary postdecisional motions. 102.48 Section 102.48 Labor Regulations Relating to Labor NATIONAL LABOR RELATIONS BOARD RULES... to file exceptions to the administrative law judge's decision; decisions by the Board; extraordinary...

29 CFR 102.48 - Action of the Board upon expiration of time to file exceptions to the administrative law judge's...

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2012-07-01

... exceptions to the administrative law judge's decision; decisions by the Board; extraordinary postdecisional motions. 102.48 Section 102.48 Labor Regulations Relating to Labor NATIONAL LABOR RELATIONS BOARD RULES... to file exceptions to the administrative law judge's decision; decisions by the Board; extraordinary...

29 CFR 102.48 - Action of the Board upon expiration of time to file exceptions to the administrative law judge's...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

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13 CFR 134.212 - Summary decision.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Summary decision. 134.212 Section... CASES BEFORE THE OFFICE OF HEARINGS AND APPEALS Rules of Practice for Most Cases § 134.212 Summary decision. (a) Grounds. A party may move for summary decision at any time as to all or any portion of the...

43 CFR 4.1125 - Summary decision.

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2010-10-01

... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Summary decision. 4.1125 Section 4.1125... Special Rules Applicable to Surface Coal Mining Hearings and Appeals Evidentiary Hearings § 4.1125 Summary decision. (a) At any time after a proceeding has begun, a party may move for summary decision of the whole...

43 CFR 4.1128 - Effect of initial order or decision.

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2010-10-01

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14 CFR 302.38 - Final decision of the DOT Decisionmaker.

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2010-01-01

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Decision net, directed graph, and neural net processing of imaging spectrometer data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Casasent, David; Liu, Shiaw-Dong; Yoneyama, Hideyuki; Barnard, Etienne

1989-01-01

A decision-net solution involving a novel hierarchical classifier and a set of multiple directed graphs, as well as a neural-net solution, are respectively presented for large-class problem and mixture problem treatments of imaging spectrometer data. The clustering method for hierarchical classifier design, when used with multiple directed graphs, yields an efficient decision net. New directed-graph rules for reducing local maxima as well as the number of perturbations required, and the new starting-node rules for extending the reachability and reducing the search time of the graphs, are noted to yield superior results, as indicated by an illustrative 500-class imaging spectrometer problem.

48 CFR 6101.29 - Clerical mistakes; harmless error [Rule 29].

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...; harmless error [Rule 29]. 6101.29 Section 6101.29 Federal Acquisition Regulations System CIVILIAN BOARD OF...; harmless error [Rule 29]. (a) Clerical mistakes. Clerical mistakes in decisions, orders, or other parts of... error in anything done or not done by the Board will be a ground for granting a new hearing or for...

41 CFR 60-30.18 - Rules of evidence.

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2011-07-01

... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2011-07-01 2009-07-01 true Rules of evidence. 60-30.18 Section 60-30.18 Public Contracts and Property Management Other Provisions Relating to Public... ORDER 11246 Hearings and Related Matters § 60-30.18 Rules of evidence. In any hearing, decision, or...

41 CFR 60-30.18 - Rules of evidence.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Rules of evidence. 60-30.18 Section 60-30.18 Public Contracts and Property Management Other Provisions Relating to Public... ORDER 11246 Hearings and Related Matters § 60-30.18 Rules of evidence. In any hearing, decision, or...

77 FR 56808 - Arapaho and Roosevelt National Forests and Pawnee National Grassland; Larimer County, CO; Middle...

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On markets and morals--(re-)establishing independent decision making in healthcare: a reply to Joao Calinas-Correia.

PubMed

Sahm, Stephan

2013-05-01

Medical practitioners owe much of the significant progress made in the diagnosis and treatment of disease to industrial research. Hence, co-operation between providers of medical services, most notably medical practitioners, and the pharmaceutical industry is in the best interest of patients. Yet, empirical evidence shows how well-directed influence exerted by the pharmaceutical industry impacts physicians' decision-making. Profit-motivated inducement by the pharmaceutical industry may expose patients to considerable risks. Against what many think to be based on overwhelming evidence, Joao Calinas-Correia takes the view that the criticism levelled at the pharmaceutical industry as well as the call for transparency in the relationships between physicians and the industry are exaggerated. In his polemic he praises "Big Pharma" as a success and espouses the view that the undesired consequences of its activities are allegedly inherent in the underlying market environment shaped by politics. Moreover, he believes that the proposals made to control and eliminate such undesired effects will lead to mediocrity. Astonishingly, his polemic reaches out to contest the appropriateness of setting rules at all-even if being set by a democratic process. Calinas-Correia's assertions are based on the wrong premises. They fail to recognize that today individual civil rights and liberties often enough do not have to be defended against encroachments by governmental authorities. Rather, it is incumbent on the state to create rules designed to defend the individual against infringements by overly powerful non-governmental institutions, in our case the medical-industrial complex. Given the power exercised by physicians and the special nature of their role in public health, clear-cut rules have to be enacted and implemented with respect to their relationship to Big Pharma.

A sharable cloud-based pancreaticoduodenectomy collaborative database for physicians: emphasis on security and clinical rule supporting.

PubMed

Yu, Hwan-Jeu; Lai, Hong-Shiee; Chen, Kuo-Hsin; Chou, Hsien-Cheng; Wu, Jin-Ming; Dorjgochoo, Sarangerel; Mendjargal, Adilsaikhan; Altangerel, Erdenebaatar; Tien, Yu-Wen; Hsueh, Chih-Wen; Lai, Feipei

2013-08-01

Pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) is a major operation with high complication rate. Thereafter, patients may develop morbidity because of the complex reconstruction and loss of pancreatic parenchyma. A well-designed database is very important to address both the short-term and long-term outcomes after PD. The objective of this research was to build an international PD database implemented with security and clinical rule supporting functions, which made the data-sharing easier and improve the accuracy of data. The proposed system is a cloud-based application. To fulfill its requirements, the system comprises four subsystems: a data management subsystem, a clinical rule supporting subsystem, a short message notification subsystem, and an information security subsystem. After completing the surgery, the physicians input the data retrospectively, which are analyzed to study factors associated with post-PD common complications (delayed gastric emptying and pancreatic fistula) to validate the clinical value of this system. Currently, this database contains data from nearly 500 subjects. Five medical centers in Taiwan and two cancer centers in Mongolia are participating in this study. A data mining model of the decision tree analysis showed that elderly patients (>76 years) with pylorus-preserving PD (PPPD) have higher proportion of delayed gastric emptying. About the pancreatic fistula, the data mining model of the decision tree analysis revealed that cases with non-pancreaticogastrostomy (PG) reconstruction - body mass index (BMI)>29.65 or PG reconstruction - BMI>23.7 - non-classic PD have higher proportion of pancreatic fistula after PD. The proposed system allows medical staff to collect and store clinical data in a cloud, sharing the data with other physicians in a secure manner to achieve collaboration in research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Realistic decision-making processes in a vaccination game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwamura, Yoshiro; Tanimoto, Jun

2018-03-01

Previous studies of vaccination games have nearly always assumed a pairwise comparison between a focal and neighboring player for the strategy updating rule, which comes from numerous compiled studies on spatial versions of 2-player and 2-strategy (2 × 2) games such as the spatial prisoner's dilemma (SPD). We propose, in this study, new update rules because the human decision-making process of whether to commit to a vaccination is obviously influenced by a "sense of crisis" or "fear" urging him/her toward vaccination, otherwise they will likely be infected. The rule assumes that an agent evaluates whether getting a vaccination or trying to free ride should be attempted based on observations of whether neighboring non-vaccinators were able to successfully free ride during the previous time-step. Compared to the conventional updating rule (standard pairwise comparison assuming a Fermi function), the new rules generally realize higher vaccination coverage and smaller final epidemic sizes. One rule in particular shows very good performance with significantly smaller epidemic sizes despite comparable levels of vaccination coverage. This is because the specific update rule helps vaccinators spread widely in the domain, which effectively hampers the spread of epidemics.

School Law.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Splitt, David A.

1986-01-01

Reviews four recent court decisions affecting school law. A Circuit Court of Appeals ruling upheld Norfolk Schools' decision to abolish busing and reinstate neighborhood schools. The United States Supreme Court dismissed appeals to lower court decisions involving a minimum grade prerequisite, a teacher's privacy rights, and an "adult"…

Administrative Decision Making and Quasi Decision Making: An Empirical Study Using the Protocol Method.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fraser, Hugh W.; Anderson, Mary E.

1982-01-01

This exploratory study attempted to identify variables in need of further investigation. Those to emerge included heuristics or rules of thumb used by administrators in decision making, personality variables, and methods for evaluating alternatives. (Author/JM)

78 FR 5771 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

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2013-01-28

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Evaluation of Decision Rules in a Tiered Assessment of Inhalation Exposure to Nanomaterials.

PubMed

Brouwer, Derk; Boessen, Ruud; van Duuren-Stuurman, Birgit; Bard, Delphine; Moehlmann, Carsten; Bekker, Cindy; Fransman, Wouter; Klein Entink, Rinke

2016-10-01

Tiered or stepwise approaches to assess occupational exposure to nano-objects, and their agglomerates and aggregates have been proposed, which require decision rules (DRs) to move to a next tier, or terminate the assessment. In a desk study the performance of a number of DRs based on the evaluation of results from direct reading instruments was investigated by both statistical simulations and the application of the DRs to real workplace data sets. A statistical model that accounts for autocorrelation patterns in time-series, i.e. autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), was used as 'gold' standard. The simulations showed that none of the proposed DRs covered the entire range of simulated scenarios with respect to the ARIMA model parameters, however, a combined DR showed a slightly better agreement. Application of the DRs to real workplace datasets (n = 117) revealed sensitivity up to 0.72, whereas the lowest observed specificity was 0.95. The selection of the most appropriate DR is very much dependent on the consequences of the decision, i.e. ruling in or ruling out of scenarios for further evaluation. Since a basic assessment may also comprise of other type of measurements and information, an evaluation logic was proposed which embeds the DRs, but furthermore supports decision making in view of a tiered-approach exposure assessment. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

Computational mate choice: theory and empirical evidence.

PubMed

Castellano, Sergio; Cadeddu, Giorgia; Cermelli, Paolo

2012-06-01

The present review is based on the thesis that mate choice results from information-processing mechanisms governed by computational rules and that, to understand how females choose their mates, we should identify which are the sources of information and how they are used to make decisions. We describe mate choice as a three-step computational process and for each step we present theories and review empirical evidence. The first step is a perceptual process. It describes the acquisition of evidence, that is, how females use multiple cues and signals to assign an attractiveness value to prospective mates (the preference function hypothesis). The second step is a decisional process. It describes the construction of the decision variable (DV), which integrates evidence (private information by direct assessment), priors (public information), and value (perceived utility) of prospective mates into a quantity that is used by a decision rule (DR) to produce a choice. We make the assumption that females are optimal Bayesian decision makers and we derive a formal model of DV that can explain the effects of preference functions, mate copying, social context, and females' state and condition on the patterns of mate choice. The third step of mating decision is a deliberative process that depends on the DRs. We identify two main categories of DRs (absolute and comparative rules), and review the normative models of mate sampling tactics associated to them. We highlight the limits of the normative approach and present a class of computational models (sequential-sampling models) that are based on the assumption that DVs accumulate noisy evidence over time until a decision threshold is reached. These models force us to rethink the dichotomy between comparative and absolute decision rules, between discrimination and recognition, and even between rational and irrational choice. Since they have a robust biological basis, we think they may represent a useful theoretical tool for behavioural ecologist interested in integrating proximate and ultimate causes of mate choice. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Family physicians' suggestions to improve the documentation, coding, and billing system: a study from the residency research network of Texas.

PubMed

Young, Richard A; Bayles, Bryan; Hill, Jason H; Kumar, Kaparabonya A; Burge, Sandra

2014-06-01

The study's aim was to ascertain family physicians' suggestions on how to improve the commonly used US evaluation and management (E/M) rules for primary care. A companion paper published in Family Medicine's May 2014 journal describes our study methods (Fam Med 2014;46(5):378-84). Study subjects supported preserving the overall SOAP note structure. They especially suggested eliminating bullet counting in the E/M rules. For payment reform, respondents stated that brief or simple work should be paid less than long or complex work, and that family physicians should be paid for important tasks they currently are not, such as spending extra time with patients, phone and email clinical encounters, and extra paperwork. Subjects wanted shared savings when their decisions and actions created system efficiencies and savings. Some supported recent payment reforms such as monthly retainer fees and pay-for-performance bonuses. Others expressed skepticism about the negative consequences of each. Aligned incentives among all stakeholders was another common theme. Family physicians wanted less burdensome documentation requirements. They wanted to be paid more for complex work and work that does not include traditional face-to-face clinic visits, and they wanted the incentives of other stakeholders in the health care systems to be aligned with their priorities.

Building of fuzzy decision trees using ID3 algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Begenova, S. B.; Avdeenko, T. V.

2018-05-01

Decision trees are widely used in the field of machine learning and artificial intelligence. Such popularity is due to the fact that with the help of decision trees graphic models, text rules can be built and they are easily understood by the final user. Because of the inaccuracy of observations, uncertainties, the data, collected in the environment, often take an unclear form. Therefore, fuzzy decision trees becoming popular in the field of machine learning. This article presents a method that includes the features of the two above-mentioned approaches: a graphical representation of the rules system in the form of a tree and a fuzzy representation of the data. The approach uses such advantages as high comprehensibility of decision trees and the ability to cope with inaccurate and uncertain information in fuzzy representation. The received learning method is suitable for classifying problems with both numerical and symbolic features. In the article, solution illustrations and numerical results are given.