Stochastic Population Dynamics of a Montane Ground-Dwelling Squirrel

PubMed Central

Hostetler, Jeffrey A.; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Oli, Madan K.

2012-01-01

Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990–2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λs was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λs included 1.0 (0.52–1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration. PMID:22479616

Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution – Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca)

PubMed Central

Robinson, Hugh S.; Abarca, Maria; Zeller, Katherine A.; Velasquez, Grisel; Paemelaere, Evi A. D.; Goldberg, Joshua F.; Payan, Esteban; Hoogesteijn, Rafael; Boede, Ernesto O.; Schmidt, Krzysztof; Lampo, Margarita; Viloria, Ángel L.; Carreño, Rafael; Robinson, Nathaniel; Lukacs, Paul M.; Nowak, J. Joshua; Salom-Pérez, Roberto; Castañeda, Franklin; Boron, Valeria; Quigley, Howard

2018-01-01

Broad scale population estimates of declining species are desired for conservation efforts. However, for many secretive species including large carnivores, such estimates are often difficult. Based on published density estimates obtained through camera trapping, presence/absence data, and globally available predictive variables derived from satellite imagery, we modelled density and occurrence of a large carnivore, the jaguar, across the species’ entire range. We then combined these models in a hierarchical framework to estimate the total population. Our models indicate that potential jaguar density is best predicted by measures of primary productivity, with the highest densities in the most productive tropical habitats and a clear declining gradient with distance from the equator. Jaguar distribution, in contrast, is determined by the combined effects of human impacts and environmental factors: probability of jaguar occurrence increased with forest cover, mean temperature, and annual precipitation and declined with increases in human foot print index and human density. Probability of occurrence was also significantly higher for protected areas than outside of them. We estimated the world’s jaguar population at 173,000 (95% CI: 138,000–208,000) individuals, mostly concentrated in the Amazon Basin; elsewhere, populations tend to be small and fragmented. The high number of jaguars results from the large total area still occupied (almost 9 million km2) and low human densities (< 1 person/km2) coinciding with high primary productivity in the core area of jaguar range. Our results show the importance of protected areas for jaguar persistence. We conclude that combining modelling of density and distribution can reveal ecological patterns and processes at global scales, can provide robust estimates for use in species assessments, and can guide broad-scale conservation actions. PMID:29579129

Declining Orangutan Encounter Rates from Wallace to the Present Suggest the Species Was Once More Abundant

PubMed Central

Meijaard, Erik; Welsh, Alan; Ancrenaz, Marc; Wich, Serge; Nijman, Vincent; Marshall, Andrew J.

2010-01-01

Background Bornean orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus) currently occur at low densities and seeing a wild one is a rare event. Compared to present low encounter rates of orangutans, it is striking how many orangutan each day historic collectors like Alfred Russel Wallace were able to shoot continuously over weeks or even months. Does that indicate that some 150 years ago encounter rates with orangutans, or their densities, were higher than now? Methodology/Principal Findings We test this hypothesis by quantifying encounter rates obtained from hunting accounts, museum collections, and recent field studies, and analysing whether there is a declining trend over time. Logistic regression analyses of our data support such a decline on Borneo between the mid-19th century and the present. Even when controlled for variation in the size of survey and hunting teams and the durations of expeditions, mean daily encounter rates appear to have declined about 6-fold in areas with little or no forest disturbance. Conclusions/Significance This finding has potential consequences for our understanding of orangutans, because it suggests that Bornean orangutans once occurred at higher densities. We explore potential explanations—habitat loss and degradation, hunting, and disease—and conclude that hunting fits the observed patterns best. This suggests that hunting has been underestimated as a key causal factor of orangutan density and distribution, and that species population declines have been more severe than previously estimated based on habitat loss only. Our findings may require us to rethink the biology of orangutans, with much of our ecological understanding possibly being based on field studies of animals living at lower densities than they did historically. Our approach of quantifying species encounter rates from historic data demonstrates that this method can yield valuable information about the ecology and population density of species in the past, providing new insight into species' conservation needs. PMID:20711451

White-tailed deer population dynamics and adult female survival in the presence of a novel predator: Deer Population Dynamics

DOE PAGES

Chitwood, Michael C.; Lashley, Marcus A.; Kilgo, John C.; ...

2015-02-01

Recent localized declines in white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus) populations in the southeastern United States have been linked to increasing predation pressure from coyotes ( Canis latrans), a novel predator to the region. Studies have documented coyotes as the leading cause of mortality for neonates, and 1 study documented coyotes as a mortality factor for adult females. However, no study has used field-based vital rates to conduct sensitivity analyses or model deer population trajectories under potential harvest or predator removal strategies. We used low, medium, and high values of fawn survival, adult female survival, and fecundity data collected from Fortmore » Bragg Military Installation, North Carolina to demonstrate the current declining population trajectory for deer (λ = 0.905; low λ = 0.788, high λ = 1.003). Consistent with other studies of ungulates, we determined adult female survival was the most sensitive and elastic vital rate. Further, for 3 potential management (“what if”) scenarios, we projected the population for 10 years using estimated vital rates. Reducing adult female harvest (λ = 0.935; low λ = 0.875, high λ = 1.002) and coyote removal (λ = 0.995; low λ = 0.898, high λ = 1.081) reduced the current population decline, whereas combining both approaches (λ = 1.024; low λ = 0.898, high λ = 1.141) resulted in population increases. Our data indicate that for low-density deer populations with heavy predation pressure on neonates, protecting adult females from harvest may not completely offset population declines. Coyote removal might be a necessary strategy because it could possibly increase very low fawn survival, which appears to be the most important vital rate influencing λ in our study. However, managers may have to start with reductions in adult female harvest because coyote removal would have to be continuous and consistently effective, making it an impractical management approach by itself.« less

White-tailed deer population dynamics and adult female survival in the presence of a novel predator: Deer Population Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chitwood, Michael C.; Lashley, Marcus A.; Kilgo, John C.

Recent localized declines in white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus) populations in the southeastern United States have been linked to increasing predation pressure from coyotes ( Canis latrans), a novel predator to the region. Studies have documented coyotes as the leading cause of mortality for neonates, and 1 study documented coyotes as a mortality factor for adult females. However, no study has used field-based vital rates to conduct sensitivity analyses or model deer population trajectories under potential harvest or predator removal strategies. We used low, medium, and high values of fawn survival, adult female survival, and fecundity data collected from Fortmore » Bragg Military Installation, North Carolina to demonstrate the current declining population trajectory for deer (λ = 0.905; low λ = 0.788, high λ = 1.003). Consistent with other studies of ungulates, we determined adult female survival was the most sensitive and elastic vital rate. Further, for 3 potential management (“what if”) scenarios, we projected the population for 10 years using estimated vital rates. Reducing adult female harvest (λ = 0.935; low λ = 0.875, high λ = 1.002) and coyote removal (λ = 0.995; low λ = 0.898, high λ = 1.081) reduced the current population decline, whereas combining both approaches (λ = 1.024; low λ = 0.898, high λ = 1.141) resulted in population increases. Our data indicate that for low-density deer populations with heavy predation pressure on neonates, protecting adult females from harvest may not completely offset population declines. Coyote removal might be a necessary strategy because it could possibly increase very low fawn survival, which appears to be the most important vital rate influencing λ in our study. However, managers may have to start with reductions in adult female harvest because coyote removal would have to be continuous and consistently effective, making it an impractical management approach by itself.« less

Relaxation of risk-sensitive behaviour of prey following disease-induced decline of an apex predator, the Tasmanian devil

PubMed Central

Hollings, Tracey; McCallum, Hamish; Kreger, Kaely; Mooney, Nick; Jones, Menna

2015-01-01

Apex predators structure ecosystems through lethal and non-lethal interactions with prey, and their global decline is causing loss of ecological function. Behavioural changes of prey are some of the most rapid responses to predator decline and may act as an early indicator of cascading effects. The Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii), an apex predator, is undergoing progressive and extensive population decline, of more than 90% in long-diseased areas, caused by a novel disease. Time since local disease outbreak correlates with devil population declines and thus predation risk. We used hair traps and giving-up densities (GUDs) in food patches to test whether a major prey species of devils, the arboreal common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula), is responsive to the changing risk of predation when they forage on the ground. Possums spend more time on the ground, discover food patches faster and forage more to a lower GUD with increasing years since disease outbreak and greater devil population decline. Loss of top–down effects of devils with respect to predation risk was evident at 90% devil population decline, with possum behaviour indistinguishable from a devil-free island. Alternative predators may help to maintain risk-sensitive anti-predator behaviours in possums while devil populations remain low. PMID:26085584

Population ecology of polar bears in Davis Strait, Canada and Greenland

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peacock, Elizabeth; Taylor, Mitchell K.; Laake, Jeffrey L.; Stirling, Ian

2013-01-01

Until recently, the sea ice habitat of polar bears was understood to be variable, but environmental variability was considered to be cyclic or random, rather than progressive. Harvested populations were believed to be at levels where density effects were considered not significant. However, because we now understand that polar bear demography can also be influenced by progressive change in the environment, and some populations have increased to greater densities than historically lower numbers, a broader suite of factors should be considered in demographic studies and management. We analyzed 35 years of capture and harvest data from the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation in Davis Strait, including data from a new study (2005–2007), to quantify its current demography. We estimated the population size in 2007 to be 2,158 ± 180 (SE), a likely increase from the 1970s. We detected variation in survival, reproductive rates, and age-structure of polar bears from geographic sub-regions. Survival and reproduction of bears in southern Davis Strait was greater than in the north and tied to a concurrent dramatic increase in breeding harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) in Labrador. The most supported survival models contained geographic and temporal variables. Harp seal abundance was significantly related to polar bear survival. Our estimates of declining harvest recovery rate, and increasing total survival, suggest that the rate of harvest declined over time. Low recruitment rates, average adult survival rates, and high population density, in an environment of high prey density, but deteriorating and variable ice conditions, currently characterize the Davis Strait polar bears. Low reproductive rates may reflect negative effects of greater densities or worsening ice conditions.

Multiscale habitat selection by Ruffed Grouse at low population densities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zimmerman, G.S.; Gutierrez, R.J.; Thogmartin, W.E.; Banerjee, S.

2009-01-01

Theory suggests habitats should be chosen according to their relative evolutionary benefits and costs. It has been hypothesized that aspen (Populus spp.) forests provide optimal habitat for Ruffed Grouse (Bonasa umbellus). We used the low phase of a grouse population's cycle to assess the prediction that grouse should occupy aspen and avoid other forest types at low population density because of the presumptive fitness benefits of aspen. On the basis of our observations, we predict how the Ruffed Grouse population will increase in different forest types during the next cycle. In conifer (Pinus spp., Abies balsamea, Picea spp.)-dominated and mixed aspen-conifer landscapes, grouse densities were highest where forest types were evenly distributed. Within these landscapes, male Ruffed Grouse selected young aspen stands that were large and round or square. Although Ruffed Grouse selected young aspen stands strongly, contrary to prediction, they also used other forest types even when young aspen stands remained unoccupied. The relative densities of Ruffed Grouse in aspen and conifer forests indicated that the aspen forest's carrying capacities for grouse was higher than the conifer forest's at least during the low and declining phases of the grouse's cycle. On the basis of our observations, we predict that Ruffed Grouse populations in aspen-dominated landscapes will have higher population densities and fluctuate more than will populations in conifer-dominated landscapes. We suggest that studies of avian habitat selection would benefit from knowledge about the relative densities among habitats at differing population sizes because this information could provide insight into the role of habitat in regulating populations and clarify inferences from studies about habitat quality for birds. ?? 2009 by The Cooper Ornithological Society. All rights reserved.

Population growth, agrarian peasant economy and environmental degradation in Tanzania.

PubMed

Madulu, N F

1995-03-01

Population strategies to relieve the density pressures on land and resources in Tanzania have not considered the basic causes of population growth. Resettlement results in the same environmental degradation as in the original settlement. There should be a reduction in the population growth and planning of proper land use and resource exploitation before resettlement. Rural development must include a decline in the dependency on subsistence agriculture. Population in Tanzania increased by 213% during 1948-88. An absolute increase in population size during 1978-88 is recorded despite a slight decline in the rate of growth. Death rates declined, but birth rates were relatively stable at around 50 per 1000 population. Regions with the highest growth rates were Dar es Salaam (4.8%), Rukwa (4.3%), Arusha (3.8%), Mbeya (3.1%), and Ruvuma (3.2%). The regions with the lowest rates were Tanga and Kilimanjaro (2.1%), Coast (2.1%), Lindi (2%), and Mtwara (1.4%). Low growth rates are attributed to low fertility and high infertility. Other factors affecting high growth rates are culture, rates of natural increase, intensity of internal and international migration, climatic conditions, and availability of resources. In 1988 46% of the population was under 15 years old. Per capita land availability declined from 11.8 hectares in 1948 to 3.8 hectares in 1988. The number of landless peasants increased. Productivity declined, and distances to farms increased. The total fertility rate was 6.5 children per woman in 1988 and 6.1 during 1991-92. Slight declines were apparent in the crude birth rate also. High fertility was a response to universal marriage, low contraceptive use (7% using modern methods during 1991-92), declining lactation periods, high mortality rates, and old traditions favoring large families. Children were used extensively in time-consuming and labor-intensive activities, such as fetching water. The mean number of children ever born was higher among women with 1-4 years of schooling compared to women with no formal education and women with 5 or more years of education. Population growth contributes to deforestation, soil erosion, desertification, famine, drought, flooding, and demand for firewood.

When can the cause of a population decline be determined?

PubMed

Hefley, Trevor J; Hooten, Mevin B; Drake, John M; Russell, Robin E; Walsh, Daniel P

2016-11-01

Inferring the factors responsible for declines in abundance is a prerequisite to preventing the extinction of wild populations. Many of the policies and programmes intended to prevent extinctions operate on the assumption that the factors driving the decline of a population can be determined. Exogenous factors that cause declines in abundance can be statistically confounded with endogenous factors such as density dependence. To demonstrate the potential for confounding, we used an experiment where replicated populations were driven to extinction by gradually manipulating habitat quality. In many of the replicated populations, habitat quality and density dependence were confounded, which obscured causal inference. Our results show that confounding is likely to occur when the exogenous factors that are driving the decline change gradually over time. Our study has direct implications for wild populations, because many factors that could drive a population to extinction change gradually through time. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

When can the cause of a population decline be determined?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Drake, John M.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.

2016-01-01

Inferring the factors responsible for declines in abundance is a prerequisite to preventing the extinction of wild populations. Many of the policies and programmes intended to prevent extinctions operate on the assumption that the factors driving the decline of a population can be determined. Exogenous factors that cause declines in abundance can be statistically confounded with endogenous factors such as density dependence. To demonstrate the potential for confounding, we used an experiment where replicated populations were driven to extinction by gradually manipulating habitat quality. In many of the replicated populations, habitat quality and density dependence were confounded, which obscured causal inference. Our results show that confounding is likely to occur when the exogenous factors that are driving the decline change gradually over time. Our study has direct implications for wild populations, because many factors that could drive a population to extinction change gradually through time.

Long-term implications of low fertility in Kerala, India.

PubMed

Rajan, S I; Zachariah, K C

1998-09-01

This study reviewed patterns of low fertility in Kerala state, India, and the implications for employment, the elderly, the marriage squeeze, and education. The total fertility rate (TFR) in Kerala declined from 5.6 to 1.7 children/woman during 1951-93. In 1993, infant mortality was 13/1000 live births. The demographic transition was enhanced by high population density and state policies and programs. Economic conditions are poor. Unemployment in 1997-98 was 10% of total Indian unemployment, despite Kerala's having only 3.4% of total population. Unemployment is high among the educated and those aged 15-29 years. Kerala has a high level of migrant population. Health conditions are good in Kerala. Mortality is low; life expectancy at birth is high, especially among females. The TFR varied from 1.6 in Emakulam to 3.4 in Malappuram districts during 1984-90. Only 5 districts in 1990 had above-replacement fertility. Continued patterns of fertility decline suggest that zero population growth may occur in 25-30 years. The implications of the age distribution are that the school-age population will decline, as will the need for youth products and services. The demographic pressure on unemployment will not decline until after 2021. The proportion in the labor force will begin to decline after 2000. The proportion aged 50-64 years out of total population will increase to 35.5% by 2021. By 2001, the number of females aged 20-24 years will almost equal the number of males aged 25-29 years. In 2021, if old-age benefits are extended to all elderly, the cost will rise to Rs. 138 million. Elderly voters will be 1 in 5 in 2021.

Declines in moose population density at Isle Royle National Park, MI, USA and accompanied changes in landscape patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

De Jager, N. R.; Pastor, J.

2009-01-01

Ungulate herbivores create patterns of forage availability, plant species composition, and soil fertility as they range across large landscapes and consume large quantities of plant material. Over time, herbivore populations fluctuate, producing great potential for spatio-temporal landscape dynamics. In this study, we extend the spatial and temporal extent of a long-term investigation of the relationship of landscape patterns to moose foraging behavior at Isle Royale National Park, MI. We examined how patterns of browse availability and consumption, plant basal area, and soil fertility changed during a recent decline in the moose population. We used geostatistics to examine changes in the nature of spatial patterns in two valleys over 18 years and across short-range and long-range distance scales. Landscape patterns of available and consumed browse changed from either repeated patches or randomly distributed patches in 1988-1992 to random point distributions by 2007 after a recent record high peak followed by a rapid decline in the moose population. Patterns of available and consumed browse became decoupled during the moose population low, which is in contrast to coupled patterns during the earlier high moose population. Distributions of plant basal area and soil nitrogen availability also switched from repeated patches to randomly distributed patches in one valley and to random point distributions in the other valley. Rapid declines in moose population density may release vegetation and soil fertility from browsing pressure and in turn create random landscape patterns. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009.

Factors affecting population dynamics of leaf beetles in a subarctic region: The interplay between climate warming and pollution decline.

PubMed

Zvereva, Elena L; Hunter, Mark D; Zverev, Vitali; Kozlov, Mikhail V

2016-10-01

Understanding the mechanisms by which abiotic drivers, such as climate and pollution, influence population dynamics of animals is important for our ability to predict the population trajectories of individual species under different global change scenarios. We monitored four leaf beetle species (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) feeding on willows (Salix spp.) in 13 sites along a pollution gradient in subarctic forests of north-western Russia from 1993 to 2014. During a subset of years, we also measured the impacts of natural enemies and host plant quality on the performance of one of these species, Chrysomela lapponica. Spring and fall temperatures increased by 2.5-3°C during the 21-year observation period, while emissions of sulfur dioxide and heavy metals from the nickel-copper smelter at Monchegorsk decreased fivefold. However, contrary to predictions of increasing herbivory with climate warming, and in spite of discovered increase in host plant quality with increase in temperatures, none of the beetle species became more abundant during the past 20years. No directional trends were observed in densities of either Phratora vitellinae or Plagiodera versicolora, whereas densities of both C. lapponica and Gonioctena pallida showed a simultaneous rapid 20-fold decline in the early 2000s, remaining at very low levels thereafter. Time series analysis and model selection indicated that these abrupt population declines were associated with decreases in aerial emissions from the smelter. Observed declines in the population densities of C. lapponica can be explained by increases in mortality from natural enemies due to the combined action of climate warming and declining pollution. This pattern suggests that at least in some tri-trophic systems, top-down factors override bottom-up effects and govern the impacts of environmental changes on insect herbivores. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Response of ecosystem metabolism to low densities of spawning Chinook salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benjamin, Joseph R.; Bellmore, J. Ryan; Watson, Grace A.

2016-01-01

Marine derived nutrients delivered by large runs of returning salmon are thought to subsidize the in situ food resources that support juvenile salmon. In the Pacific Northwest, USA, salmon have declined to <10% of their historical abundance, with subsequent declines of marine derived nutrients once provided by large salmon runs. We explored whether low densities (<0.001 spawners/m2) of naturally spawning Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) can affect ecosystem metabolism. We measured gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) continuously before, during, and after salmon spawning. We compared downstream reaches with low densities of spawning salmon to upstream reaches with fewer or no spawners in 3 mid-sized (4th-order) rivers in northern Washington. In addition, we measured chemical, physical, and biological factors that may be important in controlling rates of GPP and ER. We observed that low densities of spawning salmon can increase GPP by 46% during spawning, but values quickly return to those observed before spawning. No difference in ER was observed between up- and downstream reaches. Based on our results, salmon density, temperature, and the proximity to salmon redds were the most important factors controlling rates of GPP, whereas temperature was most important for ER. These results suggest that even at low spawning densities, salmon can stimulate basal resources that may propagate up the food web. Understanding how recipient ecosystems respond to low levels of marine derived nutrients may inform nutrient augmentation studies aimed at enhancing fish populations.

Predation on an Upper Trophic Marine Predator, the Steller Sea Lion: Evaluating High Juvenile Mortality in a Density Dependent Conceptual Framework

PubMed Central

Horning, Markus; Mellish, Jo-Ann E.

2012-01-01

The endangered western stock of the Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) – the largest of the eared seals – has declined by 80% from population levels encountered four decades ago. Current overall trends from the Gulf of Alaska to the Aleutian Islands appear neutral with strong regional heterogeneities. A published inferential model has been used to hypothesize a continuous decline in natality and depressed juvenile survival during the height of the decline in the mid-late 1980's, followed by the recent recovery of juvenile survival to pre-decline rates. However, these hypotheses have not been tested by direct means, and causes underlying past and present population trajectories remain unresolved and controversial. We determined post-weaning juvenile survival and causes of mortality using data received post-mortem via satellite from telemetry transmitters implanted into 36 juvenile Steller sea lions from 2005 through 2011. Data show high post-weaning mortality by predation in the eastern Gulf of Alaska region. To evaluate the impact of such high levels of predation, we developed a conceptual framework to integrate density dependent with density independent effects on vital rates and population trajectories. Our data and model do not support the hypothesized recent recovery of juvenile survival rates and reduced natality. Instead, our data demonstrate continued low juvenile survival in the Prince William Sound and Kenai Fjords region of the Gulf of Alaska. Our results on contemporary predation rates combined with the density dependent conceptual framework suggest predation on juvenile sea lions as the largest impediment to recovery of the species in the eastern Gulf of Alaska region. The framework also highlights the necessity for demographic models based on age-structured census data to incorporate the differential impact of predation on multiple vital rates. PMID:22272296

Using binary statistics in Taurus-Auriga to distinguish between brown dwarf formation processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marks, M.; Martín, E. L.; Béjar, V. J. S.; Lodieu, N.; Kroupa, P.; Manjavacas, E.; Thies, I.; Rebolo López, R.; Velasco, S.

2017-08-01

Context. One of the key questions of the star formation problem is whether brown dwarfs (BDs) form in the manner of stars directly from the gravitational collapse of a molecular cloud core (star-like) or whether BDs and some very low-mass stars (VLMSs) constitute a separate population that forms alongside stars comparable to the population of planets, for example through circumstellar disk (peripheral) fragmentation. Aims: For young stars in Taurus-Auriga the binary fraction has been shown to be large with little dependence on primary mass above ≈ 0.2 M⊙, while for BDs the binary fraction is < 10%. Here we investigate a case in which BDs in Taurus formed dominantly, but not exclusively, through peripheral fragmentation, which naturally results in small binary fractions. The decline of the binary frequency in the transition region between star-like formation and peripheral formation is modelled. Methods: We employed a dynamical population synthesis model in which stellar binary formation is universal with a large binary fraction close to unity. Peripheral objects form separately in circumstellar disks with a distinctive initial mass function (IMF), their own orbital parameter distributions for binaries, and small binary fractions, according to observations and expectations from smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) and grid-based computations. A small amount of dynamical processing of the stellar component was accounted for as appropriate for the low-density Taurus-Auriga embedded clusters. Results: The binary fraction declines strongly in the transition region between star-like and peripheral formation, exhibiting characteristic features. The location of these features and the steepness of this trend depend on the mass limits for star-like and peripheral formation. Such a trend might be unique to low density regions, such as Taurus, which host binary populations that are largely unprocessed dynamically in which the binary fraction is large for stars down to M-dwarfs and small for BDs. Conclusions: The existence of a strong decline in the binary fraction - primary mass diagram will become verifiable in future surveys on BD and VLMS binarity in the Taurus-Auriga star-forming region. The binary fraction - primary mass diagram is a diagnostic of the (non-)continuity of star formation along the mass scale, the separateness of the stellar and BD populations, and the dominant formation channel for BDs and BD binaries in regions of low stellar density hosting dynamically unprocessed populations.

Land Use as a Driver of Patterns of Rodenticide Exposure in Modeled Kit Fox Populations

PubMed Central

Nogeire, Theresa M.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Schumaker, Nathan H.; Cypher, Brian L.; Phillips, Scott E.

2015-01-01

Although rodenticides are increasingly regulated, they nonetheless cause poisonings in many non-target wildlife species. Second-generation anticoagulant rodenticide use is common in agricultural and residential landscapes. Here, we use an individual-based population model to assess potential population-wide effects of rodenticide exposures on the endangered San Joaquin kit fox (Vulpes macrotis mutica). We estimate likelihood of rodenticide exposure across the species range for each land cover type based on a database of reported pesticide use and literature. Using a spatially-explicit population model, we find that 36% of modeled kit foxes are likely exposed, resulting in a 7-18% decline in the range-wide modeled kit fox population that can be linked to rodenticide use. Exposures of kit foxes in low-density developed areas accounted for 70% of the population-wide exposures to rodenticides. We conclude that exposures of non-target kit foxes could be greatly mitigated by reducing the use of second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides in low-density developed areas near vulnerable populations. PMID:26244655

Social and Demographic Effects of Anthropogenic Mortality: A Test of the Compensatory Mortality Hypothesis in the Red Wolf

PubMed Central

Sparkman, Amanda M.; Waits, Lisette P.; Murray, Dennis L.

2011-01-01

Whether anthropogenic mortality is additive or compensatory to natural mortality in animal populations has long been a question of theoretical and practical importance. Theoretically, under density-dependent conditions populations compensate for anthropogenic mortality through decreases in natural mortality and/or increases in productivity, but recent studies of large carnivores suggest that anthropogenic mortality can be fully additive to natural mortality and thereby constrain annual survival and population growth rate. Nevertheless, mechanisms underlying either compensatory or additive effects continue to be poorly understood. Using long-term data on a reintroduced population of the red wolf, we tested for evidence of additive vs. compensatory effects of anthropogenic mortality on annual survival and population growth rates, and the preservation and reproductive success of breeding pairs. We found that anthropogenic mortality had a strong additive effect on annual survival and population growth rate at low population density, though there was evidence for compensation in population growth at high density. When involving the death of a breeder, anthropogenic mortality was also additive to natural rates of breeding pair dissolution, resulting in a net decrease in the annual preservation of existing breeding pairs. However, though the disbanding of a pack following death of a breeder resulted in fewer recruits per litter relative to stable packs, there was no relationship between natural rates of pair dissolution and population growth rate at either high or low density. Thus we propose that short-term additive effects of anthropogenic mortality on population growth in the red wolf population at low density were primarily a result of direct mortality of adults rather than indirect socially-mediated effects resulting in reduced recruitment. Finally, we also demonstrate that per capita recruitment and the proportion of adults that became reproductive declined steeply with increasing population density, suggesting that there is potential for density-dependent compensation of anthropogenically-mediated population regulation. PMID:21738589

Monitoring low density avian populations: An example using Mountain Plovers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dreitz, V.J.; Lukacs, P.M.; Knopf, F.L.

2006-01-01

Declines in avian populations highlight a need for rigorous, broad-scale monitoring programs to document trends in avian populations that occur in low densities across expansive landscapes. Accounting for the spatial variation and variation in detection probability inherent to monitoring programs is thought to be effort-intensive and time-consuming. We determined the feasibility of the analytical method developed by Royle and Nichols (2003), which uses presence-absence (detection-non-detection) field data, to estimate abundance of Mountain Plovers (Charadrius montanus) per sampling unit in agricultural fields, grassland, and prairie dog habitat in eastern Colorado. Field methods were easy to implement and results suggest that the analytical method provides valuable insight into population patterning among habitats. Mountain Plover abundance was highest in prairie dog habitat, slightly lower in agricultural fields, and substantially lower in grassland. These results provided valuable insight to focus future research into Mountain Plover ecology and conservation. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.

Decline in a population of spectacled eiders nesting on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ely, Craig R.; Dau, Christian; Babcock, Christopher

1994-01-01

The number of spectacled eiders nesting on two study areas near the Kashunuk River, on the central Yukon-Kuskokwim (Y-K) Delta, Alaska, declined by over 75% in the last 20 years. Nesting densities have remained low, but have not significantly declined since 1985. There has been no decrease in the reproductive effort of individual females as indicated by average clutch sizes. There has been a significant decline in the proportion of nests located on islands on one of the two study areas. Nesting success declined significantly during the 1970's. Success was not monitored in recent years, but has likely been low, based on the poor nesting success and declining numbers of cackling Canada geese and black brant nesting on the area. Nest predation by arctic foxes severely limited the productivity of cackling Canada geese, and foxes were likely the major predators of eider nests. Persistent high predation rates may lead to local extirpation in highly philopatric species such as eiders.

Complex life cycles and density dependence: assessing the contribution of egg mortality to amphibian declines.

PubMed

Vonesh, James R; De la Cruz, Omar

2002-11-01

In the last decade there has been increasing evidence of amphibian declines from relatively pristine areas. Some declines are hypothesized to be the result of egg mortality caused by factors such as elevated solar UV-B irradiation, chemical pollutants, pathogenic fungi, and climate change. However, the population-level consequences of egg mortality have not been examined explicitly, and may be complicated by density dependence in intervening life-history stages. Here we develop a demographic model for two amphibians with contrasting life-history strategies, Bufo boreas and Ambystoma macrodactylum. We then use the complementary approaches of elasticity and limitation to examine the relationships among stage-specific survival rates, larval-stage density dependence and amphibian population dynamics. Elasticity analyses showed that for a range of density dependence scenarios both species were more sensitive to changes in post-embryonic survival parameters, particularly juvenile survival, than to egg survival, suggesting that mortality of later stages may play an important role in driving declines. Limitation analyses revealed that larval density dependence can dramatically alter the consequences of early mortality, reducing or even reversing the expected population-level effects of egg mortality. Thus, greater focus on later life stages and density dependence is called for to accurately assess how stressors are likely to affect amphibian populations of conservation concern.

Effects of leafy spurge infestation on grassland birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scheiman, D.M.; Bollinger, E.K.; Johnson, D.H.

2003-01-01

Grassland bird populations are declining. Invasive plant species may be contributing to these declines by altering habitat quality. However, the effects of invasive plants on grassland birds are largely unknown. Leafy spurge (Euphorbia esula) is an exotic, invasive weed in the northern Great Plains. We examined the effects of leafy spurge infestation on densities of breeding birds, nest-site selection, and nest success in grasslands on the Sheyenne National Grassland (SNG), North Dakota, USA, 1999-2000. We categorized spurge-infested grasslands into 3 groups (low, medium, high), based on the area covered by spurge patches. We surveyed 75 100-m-radius circular points (25 in each group), and searched for nests in 6 16-ha plots (2 in each group). Grasshopper sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum) and savannah sparrow (Passerculus sandwichensis) densities were lower on high-spurge points than on low- and medium-spurge points. Bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus) and western meadowlark (Sturnella neglecta) densities were not significantly different among spurge cover groups. Spurge cover did not appear to be an important factor in nest-site selection. However, western meadowlark nest success was positively associated with spurge cover. Vegetation structure is an important indicator of habitat quality and resource availability for grassland birds. Changes in vegetation structure caused by introduced plant species, such as spurge, can alter resource availability and hence affect bird community composition. Managers of spurge-infested grasslands should continue current spurge control measures to help prevent further declines in grassland habitat quality and grassland bird populations.

Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater Yellowstone ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjornlie, Daniel D.; van Manen, Frank T.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Costello, Cecily M.

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size.

Whitebark Pine, Population Density, and Home-Range Size of Grizzly Bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Bjornlie, Daniel D.; Van Manen, Frank T.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Costello, Cecily M.

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size. PMID:24520354

Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater yellowstone ecosystem.

PubMed

Bjornlie, Daniel D; Van Manen, Frank T; Ebinger, Michael R; Haroldson, Mark A; Thompson, Daniel J; Costello, Cecily M

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size.

Effects of population reduction on white-tailed deer home-range dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crimmins, Shawn M.; Edwards, John W.; Campbell, Tyler A; Ford, W. Mark; Keyser, Patrick D.; Miller, Brad F.; Miller, Karl V.

2015-01-01

Management strategies designed to reduce the negative impacts of overabundant Odocoileus virginianus (White-tailed Deer) populations on forest regeneration may be influenced by changes in both population density and timber harvest. However, there is conflicting evidence as to how such changes in per capita resource availability influence home-range patterns. We compared home-range patterns of 33 female White-tailed Deer from a low-density population at a site with abundant browse to patterns of a sample of >100 females prior to a 75% reduction in population density and a doubling in timber harvest area. Home-range and core-area sizes were approximately 3 times larger than were found prior to population decline and timber harvest increase, consistent with predictions related to intraspecific competition. We also observed greater site fidelity than previously exhibited, although this may be an artifact of increased home-range sizes. Our results support previous research suggesting that White-tailed Deer home-range size is inversely related to population density and is driven, in part, by intraspecific competition for resources. Relationships among population density, resource availability, and home-range patterns among female White-tailed Deer appear to be complex and context specific.

Population status of chimpanzees in the Masito-Ugalla Ecosystem, Tanzania.

PubMed

Piel, Alex K; Cohen, Naomi; Kamenya, Shadrack; Ndimuligo, Sood A; Pintea, Lilian; Stewart, Fiona A

2015-10-01

More than 75 percent of Tanzania's chimpanzees live at low densities on land outside national parks. Chimpanzees are one of the key conservation targets in the region and long-term monitoring of these populations is essential for assessing the overall status of ecosystem health and the success of implemented conservation strategies. We aimed to assess change in chimpanzee density within the Masito-Ugalla Ecosystem (MUE) by comparing results of re-walking the same line transects in 2007 and 2014. We further used published remote sensing data derived from Landsat satellites to assess forest cover change within a 5 km buffer of these transects over that same period. We detected no statistically significant decline in chimpanzee density across the surveyed areas of MUE between 2007 and 2014, although the overall mean density of chimpanzees declined from 0.09 individuals/km(2) in 2007 to 0.05 individuals/km(2) in 2014. Whether this change is biologically meaningful cannot be determined due to small sample sizes and large, entirely overlapping error margins. It is therefore possible that the MUE chimpanzee population has been stable over this period and indeed in some areas (Issa Valley, Mkanga, Kamkulu) even showed an increase in chimpanzee density. Variation in chimpanzee habitat preference for ranging or nesting could explain variation in density at some of the survey sites between 2007 and 2014. We also found a relationship between increasing habitat loss and lower mean chimpanzee density. Future surveys will need to ensure a larger sample size, broader geographic effort, and random survey design, to more precisely determine trends in MUE chimpanzee density and population size over time. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Case history of population change in a `bacillus thuringiensis`-treated versus an untreated outbreak of the western spruce budworm. Forest Service research note

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mason, R.R.; Paul, H.G.

1996-09-01

Larval densities of the western spruce budworm (Choristoneura occidentalis Freeman) were monitored for 12 years (1984-95) on permanent sample plots in northeastern Oregon. The time series spanned a period of general budworm infestations when populations increased rapidly from low densities, plateaued for a time at high-outbreak densities, and then declind suddenly. Midway through the period (1988), an area with half of the sample plots was sprayed with the microbial insecticide Bacillus thuringiensis (B.t.) in an operational suppression project. The other sample plots were part of an untreated area. In the treated area, B.t. spray reduced numbers of larvae by moremore » than 90 percent; however, populations returned to an outbreak density within 3 years. In the untreated area, populations remained at outbreak densities and continued to fluctuate due to natural feedback processes. Natural decline of the population (1992-95) in the monitored area was largely unexplained and coincided with an overall collapse of the budworm outbreak in the Blue Mountains.« less

Density-associated recruitment mediates coral population dynamics on a coral reef

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bramanti, Lorenzo; Edmunds, Peter J.

2016-06-01

Theory suggests that density-associated processes can modulate community resilience following declines in population size. Here, we demonstrate density-associated processes in two scleractinian populations on the outer reef of Moorea, French Polynesia, that are rapidly increasing in size following the effects of two catastrophic disturbances. Between 2006 and 2010, predation by the corallivorous crown-of-thorns sea star reduced coral cover by 93 %; in 2010, the dead coral skeletons were removed by a cyclone, and in 2011 and 2012, high coral recruitment initiated population recovery. Coral recruitment was associated with coral cover, but the relationship differed between two coral genera that are almost exclusively broadcast spawners in Moorea. Acroporids recruited at low densities, and the density of recruits was positively associated with cover of Acropora, whereas pocilloporids recruited at high densities, and densities of their recruits were negatively associated with cover of Pocillopora. Together, our results suggest that associations between adult cover and density of both juveniles and recruits can mediate rapid coral community recovery after large disturbances. The difference between taxa in sign of the relationships between recruit density and coral cover indicate that they reflect contrasting mechanisms with the potential to mediate temporal shifts in taxonomic composition of coral communities.

Interactions of the Asian Lady Beetle, Harmonia axyridis (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), and the North American Native Lady Beetle, Coccinella novemnotata (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae): Prospects for Recovery Post-Decline.

PubMed

Ducatti, Rafael Dal Bosco; Ugine, Todd A; Losey, John

2017-02-01

The decline of the North American native lady beetle, Coccinella novemnotata Herbst, is strongly correlated with the introduction of Coccinella septempunctata L., and C. novemnotata are locally extirpated across much of the United States. Since C. novemnotata's decline, the invasive Harmonia axyridis Pallas has become dominant in North America. This study investigated whether H. axyridis has the potential to impede the recovery of C. novemnotata populations. To determine how H. axyridis interacts with C. novemnotata via intraguild predation and competition for prey, we paired first-instar C. novemnotata with first-instar H. axyridis at low and high densities of pea aphid. Coccinella novemnotata survival when paired interspecifically was significantly lower than H. axyridis survival at both aphid densities. Both species had similar weights at eclosion across aphid densities; however, H. axyridis developed faster than C. novemnotata. To examine the effect of larval size on intraguild interactions, we conducted a second experiment where we varied the C. novemnotata and H. axyridis instar in our pairings. Coccinella novemnotata survival and final weight increased when paired with younger H. axyridis larvae. The percentage survival of C. novemnotata in interspecific treatments, at the low aphid density, was lower than for same-aged C. novemnotata reared conspecifically, except for pairs initiated with C. novemnotata larvae that were two instars more advanced than H. axyridis larvae. These results suggest that intraguild predation and competition for prey by H. axyridis have the potential to affect the recovery of C. novemnotata populations negatively. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Decline in snail abundance due to soil acidification causes eggshell defects in forest passerines.

PubMed

Graveland, J; van der Wal, R

1996-02-01

On poor soils in the Netherlands an increasing number of great tits, Parus major, and of other forest passerines produce eggs with defective shells and have low reproductive success as a result of calcium deficiency. A similar increase in eggshell defects has been observed in Germany and Sweden. Snail shells are the main calcium source for tits in forests where defective eggshells do not occur, but are very little taken in forests where tits often have eggshell defects. We investigated whether a decrease in snail abundance on poor soils could be responsible for the decline in eggshell quality, and if so, what caused this decrease. Snail density in forests where tits have eggshell defects was much lower than in forests where tits do not have such defects. Snail density correlated with the calcium content and to a lesser extent with pH of the litter layer. Liming of a calciumpoor forest soil with few snails resulted in snail densities comparable to those on calcium-rich soils after 4 years. Snail density has declined on calcium-poor soils over the last two decades, but not on calcium-rich soils. Acid deposition has caused a decline of soil calcium on poor soils. We conclude, therefore, that anthropogenic acidification has caused a decline in snail populations, resulting in an increase in eggshell defects in birds in forests on poor soils.

Effects of low-density thinning in a declining white pine stand in Maine

Treesearch

William B. Leak; Mariko. Yamasaki

2013-01-01

Low-density (32 ft2/acre residual basal area) and medium-low density (60 ft2/acre residual basal area) thinnings were studied over a 4-year period in a declining white pine stand on the Massabesic Experimental Forest in southern Maine. Gross basal area growth at 60 ft2 was about three-fourths the rate...

Determinants of pika population density vs. occupancy in the Southern Rocky Mountains.

PubMed

Erb, Liesl P; Ray, Chris; Guralnick, Robert

2014-04-01

Species distributions are responding rapidly to global change. While correlative studies of local extinction have been vital to understanding the ecological impacts of global change, more mechanistic lines of inquiry are needed for enhanced forecasting. The current study assesses whether the predictors of local extinction also explain population density for a species apparently impacted by climate change. We tested a suite of climatic and habitat metrics as predictors of American pika (Ochotona princeps) relative population density in the Southern Rocky Mountains, USA. Population density was indexed as the density of pika latrine sites. Negative binomial regression and AICc showed that the best predictors of pika latrine density were patch area followed by two measures of vegetation quality: the diversity and relative cover of forbs. In contrast with previous studies of habitat occupancy in the Southern Rockies, climatic factors were not among the top predictors of latrine density. Populations may be buffered from decline and ultimately from extirpation at sites with high-quality vegetation. Conversely, populations at highest risk for declining density and extirpation are likely to be those in sites with poor-quality vegetation.

Multiple factors affect a population of Agassiz's desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) in the Northwestern Mojave Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berry, Kristin H.; Yee, Julie L.; Coble, Ashley A.; Perry, William M.; Shields, Timothy A.

2013-01-01

Numerous factors have contributed to declines in populations of the federally threatened Agassiz's Desert Tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) and continue to limit recovery. In 2010, we surveyed a low-density population on a military test facility in the northwestern Mojave Desert of California, USA, to evaluate population status and identify potential factors contributing to distribution and low densities. Estimated densities of live tortoises ranged spatially from 1.2/km2 to 15.1/km2. Although only one death of a breeding-age tortoise was recorded for the 4-yr period prior to the survey, remains of 16 juvenile and immature tortoises were found, and most showed signs of predation by Common Ravens (Corvus corax) and mammals. Predation may have limited recruitment of young tortoises into the adult size classes. To evaluate the relative importance of different types of impacts to tortoises, we developed predictive models for spatially explicit densities of tortoise sign and live tortoises using topography (i.e., slope), predators (Common Raven, signs of mammalian predators), and anthropogenic impacts (distances from paved road and denuded areas, density of ordnance fragments) as covariates. Models suggest that densities of tortoise sign increased with slope and signs of mammalian predators and decreased with Common Ravens, while also varying based on interaction effects involving these predictors as well as distances from paved roads, denuded areas, and ordnance. Similarly, densities of live tortoises varied by interaction effects among distances to denuded areas and paved roads, density of ordnance fragments, and slope. Thus multiple factors predict the densities and distribution of this population.

Variation of genetic diversity in a rapidly expanding population of the greater long-tailed hamster (Tscherskia triton) as revealed by microsatellites.

PubMed

Xu, Laixiang; Xue, Huiliang; Song, Mingjing; Zhao, Qinghua; Dong, Jingping; Liu, Juan; Guo, Yu; Xu, Tongqin; Cao, Xiaoping; Wang, Fusheng; Wang, Shuqing; Hao, Shushen; Yang, Hefang; Zhang, Zhibin

2013-01-01

Genetic diversity is essential for persistence of animal populations over both the short- and long-term. Previous studies suggest that genetic diversity may decrease with population decline due to genetic drift or inbreeding of small populations. For oscillating populations, there are some studies on the relationship between population density and genetic diversity, but these studies were based on short-term observation or in low-density phases. Evidence from rapidly expanding populations is lacking. In this study, genetic diversity of a rapidly expanding population of the Greater long-tailed hamsters during 1984-1990, in the Raoyang County of the North China Plain was studied using DNA microsatellite markers. Results show that genetic diversity was positively correlated with population density (as measured by % trap success), and the increase in population density was correlated with a decrease of genetic differentiation between the sub-population A and B. The genetic diversity tended to be higher in spring than in autumn. Variation in population density and genetic diversity are consistent between sub-population A and B. Such results suggest that dispersal is density- and season-dependent in a rapidly expanding population of the Greater long-tailed hamster. For typically solitary species, increasing population density can increase intra-specific attack, which is a driving force for dispersal. This situation is counterbalanced by decreasing population density caused by genetic drift or inbreeding as the result of small population size. Season is a major factor influencing population density and genetic diversity. Meanwhile, roads, used to be considered as geographical isolation, have less effect on genetic differentiation in a rapidly expanding population. Evidences suggest that gene flow (Nm) is positively correlated with population density, and it is significant higher in spring than that in autumn.

Effects of low-density housing development on shrubland birds in western Massachusetts

Treesearch

Scott Schlossberg; David I. King; Richard B. Chandler

2011-01-01

Housing development in rural areas is the fastest-growing type of land use in the U.S. For birds, development near natural habitats is a problem because it can reduce abundances and nesting success and increase brood parasitism by brown-headed cowbirds (Molothrus ater). In southern New England, populations of shrubland birds are declining rapidly...

Density-dependent recruitment of the bloater (Coregonus hoyi) in Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, Edward H.; Eck, Gary W.

1992-01-01

Density-dependent recruitment of the bloater (Coregonus hoyi) in Lake Michigan during and after recovery of the population in about 1977-1983 was best reflected in the fit of the Beverton-Holt recruitment function to age -1 and -2 recruits and estimated eggs of parents surveyed with trawls. A lower growth rate and lower lipid content of bloaters at higher population densities and no evidence of cannibalism supported the conclusion that recruitment is resource limited when alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) abundance is low. Predation on larvae by alewives was indicated in earlier studies as the probable cause of depressed recruitment of bloaters before their recovery, which coincided with declining alewife abundance. This negative interaction masked any bloater stock-recruitment relation in the earlier period.

Kit fox population trends at the Naval Petroleum Reserves in California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kato, T.T.; Scrivner, J.H.; Warrick, G.

The San Joaquin kit fox was listed as an endangered subspecies following passage of the Endangered Species Protection Act of 1966, and further classified as rare under the California Endangered Species Act of 1970. The San Joaquin kit fox occurs on the Naval Petroleum Reserves in California administered by the Department of Energy (DOE). A long term kit fox population monitoring program was initiated as part of DOE's mitigation strategy to comply with the Endangered Species Act. In addition to monitoring kit fox populations, the program includes assessments of kit fox prey density and assessments of predator abundance. The objectivesmore » of this study were to: describe the long term changes in the kit fox population on the Reserves and assess the roles of coyotes and lagomorphs in kit fox population dynamics. When the fox population on NPR-1 declined between 1980 and 1984, it appeared to have been negatively impacted by a declining prey base (lagomorphs) and an increasing coyote population. Declining lagomorph densities may have been a more important factor because as coyote numbers declined between 1985 and 1990, the kit fox population remained stable. The fox population on NPR-2 remained at a higher and more stable level than the population on NPR-1. The factors determining the higher densities and greater stability of the fox population on NPR-2 are unknown.« less

Relations between conspecific density and effects of ultraviolet-b radiation on tadpole size in the striped marsh frog.

PubMed

Mitchell, Toby; Alton, Lesley A; White, Craig R; Franklin, Craig E

2012-12-01

Global increases in ultraviolet-B radiation (UVBR) associated with stratospheric ozone depletion are potentially contributing to the decline of numerous amphibian species around the world. Exposure to UVBR alone reduces survival and induces a range of sublethal effects in embryonic and larval amphibians. When additional environmental stressors are present, UVBR can have compounding negative effects. Thus, examination of the effects of UVBR in the absence of other stressors may substantially underestimate its potential to affect amphibians in natural habitats. We examined the independent and interactive effects of increased UVBR and high conspecific density would have embryonic and larval striped marsh frogs (Limnodynastes peronii). We exposed individuals to a factorial combination of low and high UVBR levels and low, medium, and high densities of striped marsh frog tadpoles. The response variables were time to hatching, hatching success, posthatch survival, burst-swimming performance of tadpoles (maximum instantaneous swim speed following an escape response), and size and morphology of tadpoles. Consistent with results of previous studies, we found that exposure to UVBR alone increased the time to hatching of embryos and reduced the burst-swimming performance and size of tadpoles. Similarly, increasing conspecific density increased the time to hatching of embryos and reduced the size of tadpoles, but had no effect on burst-swimming performance. The negative effect of UVBR on tadpole size was not apparent at high densities of tadpoles. This result suggests that tadpoles living at higher densities may invest relatively less energy in growth and thus have more energy to repair UVBR-induced damage. Lower densities of conspecifics increased the negative effects of UVBR on developing amphibians. Thus, low-density populations, which may include declining populations, may be particularly susceptible to the detrimental effects of increased UVBR and thus may be driven toward extinction faster than might be expected on the basis of results from single-factor studies. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Density-dependent selection on mate search and evolution of Allee effects.

PubMed

Berec, Luděk; Kramer, Andrew M; Bernhauerová, Veronika; Drake, John M

2018-01-01

Sexually reproducing organisms require males and females to find each other. Increased difficulty of females finding mates as male density declines is the most frequently reported mechanism of Allee effects in animals. Evolving more effective mate search may alleviate Allee effects, but may depend on density regimes a population experiences. In particular, high-density populations may evolve mechanisms that induce Allee effects which become detrimental when populations are reduced and maintained at a low density. We develop an individual-based, eco-genetic model to study how mating systems and fitness trade-offs interact with changes in population density to drive evolution of the rate at which males or females search for mates. Finite mate search rate triggers Allee effects in our model and we explore how these Allee effects respond to such evolution. We allow a population to adapt to several population density regimes and examine whether high-density populations are likely to reverse adaptations attained at low densities. We find density-dependent selection in most of scenarios, leading to search rates that result in lower Allee thresholds in populations kept at lower densities. This mainly occurs when fecundity costs are imposed on mate search, and provides an explanation for why Allee effects are often observed in anthropogenically rare species. Optimizing selection, where the attained trait value minimizes the Allee threshold independent of population density, depended on the trade-off between search and survival, combined with monogamy when females were searching. Other scenarios led to runaway selection on the mate search rate, including evolutionary suicide. Trade-offs involved in mate search may thus be crucial to determining how density influences the evolution of Allee effects. Previous studies did not examine evolution of a trait related to the strength of Allee effects under density variation. We emphasize the crucial role that mating systems, fitness trade-offs and the evolving sex have in determining the density threshold for population persistence, in particular since evolution need not always take the Allee threshold to its minimum value. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Habitat dynamics, marine reserve status, and the decline and recovery of coral reef fish communities.

PubMed

Williamson, David H; Ceccarelli, Daniela M; Evans, Richard D; Jones, Geoffrey P; Russ, Garry R

2014-02-01

Severe climatic disturbance events often have major impacts on coral reef communities, generating cycles of decline and recovery, and in some extreme cases, community-level phase shifts from coral-to algal-dominated states. Benthic habitat changes directly affect reef fish communities, with low coral cover usually associated with low fish diversity and abundance. No-take marine reserves (NTRs) are widely advocated for conserving biodiversity and enhancing the sustainability of exploited fish populations. Numerous studies have documented positive ecological and socio-economic benefits of NTRs; however, the ability of NTRs to ameliorate the effects of acute disturbances on coral reefs has seldom been investigated. Here, we test these factors by tracking the dynamics of benthic and fish communities, including the important fishery species, coral trout (Plectropomus spp.), over 8 years in both NTRs and fished areas in the Keppel Island group, Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Two major disturbances impacted the reefs during the monitoring period, a coral bleaching event in 2006 and a freshwater flood plume in 2011. Both disturbances generated significant declines in coral cover and habitat complexity, with subsequent declines in fish abundance and diversity, and pronounced shifts in fish assemblage structure. Coral trout density also declined in response to the loss of live coral, however, the approximately 2:1 density ratio between NTRs and fished zones was maintained over time. The only post-disturbance refuges for coral trout spawning stocks were within the NTRs that escaped the worst effects of the disturbances. Although NTRs had little discernible effect on the temporal dynamics of benthic or fish communities, it was evident that the post-disturbance refuges for coral trout spawning stocks within some NTRs may be critically important to regional-scale population persistence and recovery.

Habitat dynamics, marine reserve status, and the decline and recovery of coral reef fish communities

PubMed Central

Williamson, David H; Ceccarelli, Daniela M; Evans, Richard D; Jones, Geoffrey P; Russ, Garry R

2014-01-01

Severe climatic disturbance events often have major impacts on coral reef communities, generating cycles of decline and recovery, and in some extreme cases, community-level phase shifts from coral-to algal-dominated states. Benthic habitat changes directly affect reef fish communities, with low coral cover usually associated with low fish diversity and abundance. No-take marine reserves (NTRs) are widely advocated for conserving biodiversity and enhancing the sustainability of exploited fish populations. Numerous studies have documented positive ecological and socio-economic benefits of NTRs; however, the ability of NTRs to ameliorate the effects of acute disturbances on coral reefs has seldom been investigated. Here, we test these factors by tracking the dynamics of benthic and fish communities, including the important fishery species, coral trout (Plectropomus spp.), over 8 years in both NTRs and fished areas in the Keppel Island group, Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Two major disturbances impacted the reefs during the monitoring period, a coral bleaching event in 2006 and a freshwater flood plume in 2011. Both disturbances generated significant declines in coral cover and habitat complexity, with subsequent declines in fish abundance and diversity, and pronounced shifts in fish assemblage structure. Coral trout density also declined in response to the loss of live coral, however, the approximately 2:1 density ratio between NTRs and fished zones was maintained over time. The only post-disturbance refuges for coral trout spawning stocks were within the NTRs that escaped the worst effects of the disturbances. Although NTRs had little discernible effect on the temporal dynamics of benthic or fish communities, it was evident that the post-disturbance refuges for coral trout spawning stocks within some NTRs may be critically important to regional-scale population persistence and recovery. PMID:24634720

Counting Cats: Spatially Explicit Population Estimates of Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) Using Unstructured Sampling Data

PubMed Central

Broekhuis, Femke; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.

2016-01-01

Many ecological theories and species conservation programmes rely on accurate estimates of population density. Accurate density estimation, especially for species facing rapid declines, requires the application of rigorous field and analytical methods. However, obtaining accurate density estimates of carnivores can be challenging as carnivores naturally exist at relatively low densities and are often elusive and wide-ranging. In this study, we employ an unstructured spatial sampling field design along with a Bayesian sex-specific spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) analysis, to provide the first rigorous population density estimates of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in the Maasai Mara, Kenya. We estimate adult cheetah density to be between 1.28 ± 0.315 and 1.34 ± 0.337 individuals/100km2 across four candidate models specified in our analysis. Our spatially explicit approach revealed ‘hotspots’ of cheetah density, highlighting that cheetah are distributed heterogeneously across the landscape. The SECR models incorporated a movement range parameter which indicated that male cheetah moved four times as much as females, possibly because female movement was restricted by their reproductive status and/or the spatial distribution of prey. We show that SECR can be used for spatially unstructured data to successfully characterise the spatial distribution of a low density species and also estimate population density when sample size is small. Our sampling and modelling framework will help determine spatial and temporal variation in cheetah densities, providing a foundation for their conservation and management. Based on our results we encourage other researchers to adopt a similar approach in estimating densities of individually recognisable species. PMID:27135614

Counting Cats: Spatially Explicit Population Estimates of Cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) Using Unstructured Sampling Data.

PubMed

Broekhuis, Femke; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M

2016-01-01

Many ecological theories and species conservation programmes rely on accurate estimates of population density. Accurate density estimation, especially for species facing rapid declines, requires the application of rigorous field and analytical methods. However, obtaining accurate density estimates of carnivores can be challenging as carnivores naturally exist at relatively low densities and are often elusive and wide-ranging. In this study, we employ an unstructured spatial sampling field design along with a Bayesian sex-specific spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) analysis, to provide the first rigorous population density estimates of cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) in the Maasai Mara, Kenya. We estimate adult cheetah density to be between 1.28 ± 0.315 and 1.34 ± 0.337 individuals/100km2 across four candidate models specified in our analysis. Our spatially explicit approach revealed 'hotspots' of cheetah density, highlighting that cheetah are distributed heterogeneously across the landscape. The SECR models incorporated a movement range parameter which indicated that male cheetah moved four times as much as females, possibly because female movement was restricted by their reproductive status and/or the spatial distribution of prey. We show that SECR can be used for spatially unstructured data to successfully characterise the spatial distribution of a low density species and also estimate population density when sample size is small. Our sampling and modelling framework will help determine spatial and temporal variation in cheetah densities, providing a foundation for their conservation and management. Based on our results we encourage other researchers to adopt a similar approach in estimating densities of individually recognisable species.

Wetland use and feeding by lesser scaup during spring migration across the upper Midwest, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anteau, M.J.; Afton, A.D.

2009-01-01

Low food availability and forage quality and concomitant decreased lipid reserves of lesser scaup (Aythya affinis; hereafter scaup) during spring migration in the upper Midwest may partially explain reductions in the continental population of scaup. In springs 20042005, we examined wetland use and feeding activity of scaup on 356 randomly-selected wetlands within 6 regions in Iowa, Minnesota, and North Dakota. We examined wetland characteristics that favor high scaup use in 286 of these wetlands. We found that probabilities of wetland use and feeding by scaup increased with turbidity up to 45 and 30 NTU, respectively, but then declined at higher turbidity levels. Wetland use was positively correlated with size of open-water zone and amphipod densities, but was not correlated with chironomid densities. Feeding increased with amphipod density up to 26 m-3 and then declined at higher amphipod densities; scaup seemingly forage most efficiently at amphipod densities above 26 m -3. Wetland use was higher in North Dakota than in southern Minnesota and Iowa. Our results indicate that effective wetland restoration efforts to benefit scaup require maintaining abundant populations of amphipods (generally near 26 m-3 landscape geometric mean) in wetlands with large (> 500 m diameter) open-water zones throughout the upper Midwest, but especially within Iowa and southern Minnesota.

Occupancy patterns of regionally declining grassland sparrow populations in a forested Pennsylvania landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, Jason M.; Diefenbach, Duane R.

2014-01-01

Organisms can be affected by processes in the surrounding landscape outside the boundary of habitat areas and by local vegetation characteristics. There is substantial interest in understanding how these processes affect populations of grassland birds, which have experienced substantial population declines. Much of our knowledge regarding patterns of occupancy and density stem from prairie systems, whereas relatively little is known regarding how occurrence and abundance of grassland birds vary in reclaimed surface mine grasslands. Using distance sampling and single-season occupancy models, we investigated how the occupancy probability of Grasshopper (Ammodramus savannarum) and Henslow's Sparrows (A. henslowii) on 61 surface mine grasslands (1591 ha) in Pennsylvania changed from 2002 through 2011 in response to landscape, grassland, and local vegetation characteristics . A subset (n = 23; 784 ha) of those grasslands were surveyed in 2002, and we estimated changes in sparrow density and vegetation across 10 years. Grasshopper and Henslow's Sparrow populations declined 72% and 49%, respectively from 2002 to 2011, whereas overall woody vegetation density increased 2.6 fold. Henslow's Sparrows avoided grasslands with perimeter–area ratios ≥0.141 km/ha and woody shrub densities ≥0.04 shrubs/m2. Both species occupied grasslands ≤13 ha, but occupancy probability declined with increasing grassland perimeter–area ratio and woody shrub density. Grassland size, proximity to nearest neighboring grassland ( = 0.2 km), and surrounding landscape composition at 0.5, 1.5, and 3.0 km were not parsimonious predictors of occupancy probability for either species. Our results suggest that reclaimed surface mine grasslands, without management intervention, are ephemeral habitats for Grasshopper and Henslow's Sparrows. Given the forecasted decline in surface coal production for Pennsylvania, it is likely that both species will continue to decline in our study region for the foreseeable future.

Influence of Population Density on Offspring Number and Size in Burying Beetles

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rauter, Claudia M.

2010-01-01

This laboratory exercise investigates the influence of population density on offspring number and size in burying beetles. Students test the theoretical predictions that brood size declines and offspring size increases when competition over resources becomes stronger with increasing population density. Students design the experiment, collect and…

Low productivity of Chinook salmon strongly correlates with high summer stream discharge in two Alaskan rivers in the Yukon drainage

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neuswanger, Jason R.; Wipfli, Mark S.; Evenson, Matthew J.; Hughes, Nicholas F.; Rosenberger, Amanda E.

2015-01-01

Yukon River Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) populations are declining for unknown reasons, creating hardship for thousands of stakeholders in subsistence and commercial fisheries. An informed response to this crisis requires understanding the major sources of variation in Chinook salmon productivity. However, simple stock–recruitment models leave much of the variation in this system’s productivity unexplained. We tested adding environmental predictors to stock–recruitment models for two Yukon drainage spawning streams in interior Alaska — the Chena and Salcha rivers. Low productivity was strongly associated with high stream discharge during the summer of freshwater residency for young-of-the-year Chinook salmon. This association was more consistent with the hypothesis that sustained high discharge negatively affects foraging conditions than with acute mortality during floods. Productivity may have also been reduced in years when incubating eggs experienced major floods or cold summers and falls. These freshwater effects — especially density dependence and high discharge — helped explain population declines in both rivers. They are plausible as contributors to the decline of Chinook salmon throughout the Yukon River drainage.

Population densities of painted buntings in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyers, J. Michael

2011-01-01

The eastern population trend of Passerina ciris (Painted Bunting) declined 3.5% annually during the first 30 yrs of the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS, 1966–1996). Recently, the US Fish and Wildlife Service listed Painted Buntings as a focal species. Surveys for this focal species for the next 10 yrs (BBS, 1997–2007), however, are too low (2 in young pine plantations to 42 per km2 in maritime shrub. Effective detection radii for habitats varied from 64 to 90 m and were slightly higher in developed than in undeveloped habitats. Distance sampling is recommended to determine densities of Painted Buntings; however, large sample sizes (70–100 detections/habitat type) are required to monitor Painted Bunting densities in most habitats in the Atlantic coastal region of the southeastern United States. Special attention should be given to maritime shrub habitats, which may be important to maintaining the Painted Bunting population in the southeastern US.

Demographics, diet, movements, and survival of an isolated, unmanaged raccoon Procyon lotor (Procyonidae, Carnivora) population on the Outer Banks of North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, Arielle Waldstein; Simons, Theodore R.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Stoskopf, Michael K.

2012-01-01

Raccoons (Procyon lotor) are highly adaptable meso-carnivores that inhabit many environments, including the Atlantic barrier islands, where their role as predators of declining, beach-nesting bird and turtle species is of particular interest. Population models that improve our understanding of predator-prey dynamics are receiving increasing attention in the literature; however, their effective application requires site-specific information on population parameters. We studied an unharvested raccoon population on the Outer Banks of North Carolina and evaluated spatial and seasonal differences in a number of population/demographic factors of raccoons inhabiting areas of high and low human activity. Raccoons denned and foraged primarily in salt marsh habitats but shifted their movements in response to changes in seasonal resource conditions. The population was skewed toward older animals and exhibited delayed breeding, typical of populations at high density with few sources of mortality. Diet and movement analysis indicated shorebird and turtle predation was attributed to a small number of individual raccoons. Although seasonal resources appeared adequate to sustain a high population density of raccoons, poor body condition and low recruitment suggested a population near carrying capacity.

Highest drought sensitivity and lowest resistance to growth suppression are found in the range core of the tree Fagus sylvatica L. not the equatorial range edge.

PubMed

Cavin, Liam; Jump, Alistair S

2017-01-01

Biogeographical and ecological theory suggests that species distributions should be driven to higher altitudes and latitudes as global temperatures rise. Such changes occur as growth improves at the poleward edge of a species distribution and declines at the range edge in the opposite or equatorial direction, mirrored by changes in the establishment of new individuals. A substantial body of evidence demonstrates that such processes are underway for a wide variety of species. Case studies from populations at the equatorial range edge of a variety of woody species have led us to understand that widespread growth decline and distributional shifts are underway. However, in apparent contrast, other studies report high productivity and reproduction in some range edge populations. We sought to assess temporal trends in the growth of the widespread European beech tree (Fagus sylvatica) across its latitudinal range. We explored the stability of populations to major drought events and the implications for predicted widespread growth decline at its equatorial range edge. In contrast to expectations, we found greatest sensitivity and low resistance to drought in the core of the species range, whilst dry range edge populations showed particularly high resistance to drought and little evidence of drought-linked growth decline. We hypothesize that this high range edge resistance to drought is driven primarily by local environmental factors that allow relict populations to persist despite regionally unfavourable climate. The persistence of such populations demonstrates that range-edge decline is not ubiquitous and is likely to be driven by declining population density at the landscape scale rather than sudden and widespread range retraction. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climatic and density influences on recruitment in an irruptive population of Roosevelt elk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Starns, Heath D.; Ricca, Mark A.; Duarte, Adam; Weckerly, Floyd W.

2014-01-01

Current paradigms of ungulate population ecology recognize that density-dependent and independent mechanisms are not always mutually exclusive. Long-term data sets are necessary to assess the relative strength of each mechanism, especially when populations display irruptive dynamics. Using an 18-year time series of population abundances of Roosevelt elk (Cervus elaphus roosevelti) inhabiting Redwood National Park in northwestern California we assessed the influence of population size and climatic variation on elk recruitment and whether irruptive dynamics occurred. An information-theoretic model selection analysis indicated that abundance lagged 2 years and neither climatic factors nor a mix of abundance and climatic factors influenced elk recruitment. However, density-dependent recruitment differed between when the population was declining and when the population increased and then stabilized at an abundance lower than at the start of the decline. The population displayed irruptive dynamics.

Weather-Related Hazards and Population Change: A Study of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in the United States, 1980–2012

PubMed Central

FUSSELL, ELIZABETH; CURRAN, SARA R.; DUNBAR, MATTHEW D.; BABB, MICHAEL A.; THOMPSON, LUANNE; MEIJER-IRONS, JACQUELINE

2017-01-01

Environmental determinists predict that people move away from places experiencing frequent weather hazards, yet some of these areas have rapidly growing populations. This analysis examines the relationship between weather events and population change in all U.S. counties that experienced hurricanes and tropical storms between 1980 and 2012. Our database allows for more generalizable conclusions by accounting for heterogeneity in current and past hurricane events and losses and past population trends. We find that hurricanes and tropical storms affect future population growth only in counties with growing, high-density populations, which are only 2 percent of all counties. In those counties, current year hurricane events and related losses suppress future population growth, although cumulative hurricane-related losses actually elevate population growth. Low-density counties and counties with stable or declining populations experience no effect of these weather events. Our analysis provides a methodologically informed explanation for contradictory findings in prior studies. PMID:29326480

Weather-Related Hazards and Population Change: A Study of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in the United States, 1980-2012.

PubMed

Fussell, Elizabeth; Curran, Sara R; Dunbar, Matthew D; Babb, Michael A; Thompson, Luanne; Meijer-Irons, Jacqueline

2017-01-01

Environmental determinists predict that people move away from places experiencing frequent weather hazards, yet some of these areas have rapidly growing populations. This analysis examines the relationship between weather events and population change in all U.S. counties that experienced hurricanes and tropical storms between 1980 and 2012. Our database allows for more generalizable conclusions by accounting for heterogeneity in current and past hurricane events and losses and past population trends. We find that hurricanes and tropical storms affect future population growth only in counties with growing, high-density populations, which are only 2 percent of all counties. In those counties, current year hurricane events and related losses suppress future population growth, although cumulative hurricane-related losses actually elevate population growth. Low-density counties and counties with stable or declining populations experience no effect of these weather events. Our analysis provides a methodologically informed explanation for contradictory findings in prior studies.

A tale of two polar bear populations: Ice habitat, harvest, and body condition

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rode, Karyn D.; Peacock, Elizabeth; Taylor, Mitchell K.; Stirling, Ian; Born, Erik W.; Laidre, Kristin L.; Wiig, Øystein

2012-01-01

One of the primary mechanisms by which sea ice loss is expected to affect polar bears is via reduced body condition and growth resulting from reduced access to prey. To date, negative effects of sea ice loss have been documented for two of 19 recognized populations. Effects of sea ice loss on other polar bear populations that differ in harvest rate, population density, and/or feeding ecology have been assumed, but empirical support, especially quantitative data on population size, demography, and/or body condition spanning two or more decades, have been lacking. We examined trends in body condition metrics of captured bears and relationships with summertime ice concentration between 1977 and 2010 for the Baffin Bay (BB) and Davis Strait (DS) polar bear populations. Polar bears in these regions occupy areas with annual sea ice that has decreased markedly starting in the 1990s. Despite differences in harvest rate, population density, sea ice concentration, and prey base, polar bears in both populations exhibited positive relationships between body condition and summertime sea ice cover during the recent period of sea ice decline. Furthermore, females and cubs exhibited relationships with sea ice that were not apparent during the earlier period (1977–1990s) when sea ice loss did not occur. We suggest that declining body condition in BB may be a result of recent declines in sea ice habitat. In DS, high population density and/or sea ice loss, may be responsible for the declines in body condition.

Gray wolf density and its association with weights and hematology of pups from 1970 to 1988

USGS Publications Warehouse

DelGiudice, Glenn D.; Mech, L. David; Seal, U.S.

1991-01-01

We examined weights and hematologic profiles of gray wolf (Canis lupus) pups and the associated wolf density in the east-central Superior National Forest of northeastern Minnesota (USA) during 1970 to 1988. We collected weight and hematologic data from 117 pups (57 females, 60 males) during 1 September to 22 November each year. The wolf density (wolves/800 km2) trend was divided into three phases: high (72 ± 7), 1970 to 1975; medium (44 ± 2), 1976 to 1983; and low (27 ± 2), 1984 to 1988. Wolf numbers declined (P = 0.0001) 39 and 63% from 1970 to 1975 to 1976 to 1983 and from 1970 to 1975 to 1984 to 1988, respectively. Weight was similar between male and female pups and did not vary as wolf density changed. Mean hemoglobin (P = 0.04), red (P = 0.0001) and white blood cells (P = 0.002), mean corpuscular volume, mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration and mean corpuscular hemoglobin (P = 0.0001) did differ among the multi-annual phases of changing wolf density. Weight and hematologic data also were compared to values from captive wolf pups. The high, but declining wolf density was associated with macrocytic, normochromic anemia in wolf pups, whereas the lowest density coincided with a hypochromic anemia. Although hematologic values show promise for assessing wolf pup condition and wolf population status, they must be used cautiously until data are available from other populations.

Low intensity, mixed livestock grazing improves the breeding abundance of a common insectivorous passerine.

PubMed

Evans, Darren M; Redpath, Stephen M; Evans, Sharon A; Elston, David A; Gardner, Charles J; Dennis, Peter; Pakeman, Robin J

2006-12-22

Livestock grazing is a major driver of ecosystem change and has been associated with significant declines in various bird species in Britain and worldwide. However, there is little experimental evidence to show how grazing affects bird populations. We manipulated livestock densities in a replicated field experiment and found that mixed sheep and cattle grazing, at low intensity, improved the breeding abundance of a common upland passerine, the meadow pipit Anthus pratensis, after two years. Plots stocked with sheep alone (at high or low density) or not stocked at all held fewer pipit territories. Despite a year-on-year decline in pairs of meadow pipits in intensively grazed plots, we found no effect of sheep number on breeding abundance. Our results support the hypothesis that mixed species of herbivores generate greater heterogeneity in vegetation structure, which modifies prey availability, resulting in a greater abundance of birds. The results of our study should inform the management of grassland areas and enhance the abundance of some bird species, particularly in areas that have seen significant shifts from mixed livestock grazing to grazing dominated by single species of animals.

Enhanced leaf nitrogen status stabilizes omnivore population density.

PubMed

Liman, Anna-Sara; Dalin, Peter; Björkman, Christer

2017-01-01

Plant traits can mediate the strength of interactions between omnivorous predators and their prey through density effects and changes in the omnivores' trophic behavior. In this study, we explored the established assumption that enhanced nutrient status in host plants strengthens the buffering effect of plant feeding for omnivorous predators, i.e., prevents rapid negative population growth during prey density decline and thereby increases and stabilizes omnivore population density. We analyzed 13 years of field data on population densities of a heteropteran omnivore on Salix cinerea stands, arranged along a measured leaf nitrogen gradient and found a 195 % increase in omnivore population density and a 63 % decrease in population variability with an increase in leaf nitrogen status from 26 to 40 mgN × g -1 . We recreated the leaf nitrogen gradient in a greenhouse experiment and found, as expected, that increasing leaf nitrogen status enhanced omnivore performance but reduced per capita prey consumption. Feeding on high nitrogen status host plants can potentially decouple omnivore-prey population dynamics and allow omnivores to persist and function effectively at low prey densities to provide "background level" control of insect herbivores. This long-term effect is expected to outweigh the short-term effect on per capita prey consumption-resulting in a net increase in population predation rates with increasing leaf nitrogen status. Conservation biological control of insect pests that makes use of omnivore background control could, as a result, be manipulated via management of crop nitrogen status.

Regional decline of an iconic amphibian associated with elevation, land-use change, and invasive species.

PubMed

Johnson, Pieter T J; McKenzie, Valerie J; Peterson, Anna C; Kerby, Jacob L; Brown, Jennifer; Blaustein, Andrew R; Jackson, Tina

2011-06-01

Ecological theory predicts that species with restricted geographic ranges will have the highest probability of extinction, but species with extensive distributions and high population densities can also exhibit widespread population losses. In the western United States populations of northern leopard frogs (Lithobates pipiens)-historically one of the most widespread frogs in North America-have declined dramatically in abundance and geographic distribution. To assess the status of leopard frogs in Colorado and evaluate causes of decline, we coupled statewide surveys of 196 historically occupied sites with intensive sampling of 274 wetlands stratified by land use. We used an information-theoretic approach to evaluate the contributions of factors at multiple spatial extents in explaining the contemporary distribution of leopard frogs. Our results indicate leopard frogs have declined in Colorado, but this decline was regionally variable. The lowest proportion of occupied wetlands occurred in eastern Colorado (2-28%), coincident with urban development and colonization by non-native bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus). Variables at several spatial extents explained observed leopard frog distributional patterns. In low-elevation wetlands introduced fishes, bullfrogs, and urbanization or suburbanization associated negatively with leopard frog occurrence, whereas wetland area was positively associated with occurrence. Leopard frogs were more abundant and widespread west of the Continental Divide, where urban development and bullfrog abundance were low. Although the pathogenic chytrid Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) was not selected in our best-supported models, the nearly complete extirpation of leopard frogs from montane wetlands could reflect the individual or interactive effects of Bd and climate patterns. Our results highlight the importance of considering multiple, competing hypotheses to explain species declines, particularly when implicated factors operate at different spatial extents. ©2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

Modelling interactions of toxicants and density dependence in wildlife populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schipper, Aafke M.; Hendriks, Harrie W.M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.

2013-01-01

1. A major challenge in the conservation of threatened and endangered species is to predict population decline and design appropriate recovery measures. However, anthropogenic impacts on wildlife populations are notoriously difficult to predict due to potentially nonlinear responses and interactions with natural ecological processes like density dependence. 2. Here, we incorporated both density dependence and anthropogenic stressors in a stage-based matrix population model and parameterized it for a density-dependent population of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus exposed to two anthropogenic toxicants [dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)]. Log-logistic exposure–response relationships were used to translate toxicant concentrations in peregrine falcon eggs to effects on fecundity. Density dependence was modelled as the probability of a nonbreeding bird acquiring a breeding territory as a function of the current number of breeders. 3. The equilibrium size of the population, as represented by the number of breeders, responded nonlinearly to increasing toxicant concentrations, showing a gradual decrease followed by a relatively steep decline. Initially, toxicant-induced reductions in population size were mitigated by an alleviation of the density limitation, that is, an increasing probability of territory acquisition. Once population density was no longer limiting, the toxicant impacts were no longer buffered by an increasing proportion of nonbreeders shifting to the breeding stage, resulting in a strong decrease in the equilibrium number of breeders. 4. Median critical exposure concentrations, that is, median toxicant concentrations in eggs corresponding with an equilibrium population size of zero, were 33 and 46 μg g−1 fresh weight for DDE and PBDEs, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our modelling results showed that particular life stages of a density-limited population may be relatively insensitive to toxicant impacts until a critical threshold is crossed. In our study population, toxicant-induced changes were observed in the equilibrium number of nonbreeding rather than breeding birds, suggesting that monitoring efforts including both life stages are needed to timely detect population declines. Further, by combining quantitative exposure–response relationships with a wildlife demographic model, we provided a method to quantify critical toxicant thresholds for wildlife population persistence.

Occupancy patterns of regionally declining grassland sparrow populations in a forested Pennsylvania landscape.

PubMed

Hill, Jason M; Diefenbach, Duane R

2014-06-01

Organisms can be affected by processes in the surrounding landscape outside the boundary of habitat areas and by local vegetation characteristics. There is substantial interest in understanding how these processes affect populations of grassland birds, which have experienced substantial population declines. Much of our knowledge regarding patterns of occupancy and density stem from prairie systems, whereas relatively little is known regarding how occurrence and abundance of grassland birds vary in reclaimed surface mine grasslands. Using distance sampling and single-season occupancy models, we investigated how the occupancy probability of Grasshopper (Ammodramus savannarum) and Henslow's Sparrows (A. henslowii) on 61 surface mine grasslands (1591 ha) in Pennsylvania changed from 2002 through 2011 in response to landscape, grassland, and local vegetation characteristics . A subset (n = 23; 784 ha) of those grasslands were surveyed in 2002, and we estimated changes in sparrow density and vegetation across 10 years. Grasshopper and Henslow's Sparrow populations declined 72% and 49%, respectively from 2002 to 2011, whereas overall woody vegetation density increased 2.6 fold. Henslow's Sparrows avoided grasslands with perimeter-area ratios ≥0.141 km/ha and woody shrub densities ≥0.04 shrubs/m(2). Both species occupied grasslands ≤13 ha, but occupancy probability declined with increasing grassland perimeter-area ratio and woody shrub density. Grassland size, proximity to nearest neighboring grassland (x = 0.2 km), and surrounding landscape composition at 0.5, 1.5, and 3.0 km were not parsimonious predictors of occupancy probability for either species. Our results suggest that reclaimed surface mine grasslands, without management intervention, are ephemeral habitats for Grasshopper and Henslow's Sparrows. Given the forecasted decline in surface coal production for Pennsylvania, it is likely that both species will continue to decline in our study region for the foreseeable future. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Long-term population survey of the Sulawesi black macaques (Macaca nigra) at Tangkoko Nature Reserve, North Sulawesi, Indonesia.

PubMed

Kyes, Randall C; Iskandar, Entang; Onibala, Jane; Paputungan, Umar; Laatung, Sylvia; Huettmann, Falk

2013-01-01

The Sulawesi black macaque (Macaca nigra) population at Tangkoko Nature Reserve in North Sulawesi, Indonesia has been the focus of periodic study for over 30 years. The population has shown considerable decline during much of that time. Here we present the results of a long-term population survey of the Tangkoko M. nigra, conducted over the past decade, to provide updated information and on-going assessment of the population. Line-transect sampling was conducted annually from 1999 to 2002 and 2005 to 2011 along the same transect during a 2- to 3-week survey period. Although further decline in the population was observed at the outset of the survey, over the subsequent 12-year period we have seen stability in the population parameters with evidence of modest increases in both group and population density. During the 1999-2002 survey periods, there was a mean group density of 3.6 groups/km(2) and a mean population density of 39.8 individuals/km(2) . During 2005-2011, mean group density increased to 3.8 groups/km(2) and mean population density was 51.4 individuals/km(2) . The 2011 survey data indicated an estimated group density of 4.3 groups/km(2) and a population density of 61.5 individuals/km(2) . Given that our transect was located in the core of the Tangkoko reserve, our density estimates should be limited to that area of the reserve. One explanation for the apparent stabilization of the population may be tied to the increasing and sustained number of training and research programs being conducted at the reserve. This collective effort by local and international groups may be helping to reduce illegal activity in the reserve (i.e., hunting and habitat destruction) and generate greater awareness of this critically endangered species. Without the continued vigilance afforded by the existing research and training programs and the support and involvement of the local people, the M. nigra at the Tangkoko Nature Reserve will likely face further decline. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Population cycles in small rodents.

PubMed

Krebs, C J; Gaines, M S; Keller, B L; Myers, J H; Tamarin, R H

1973-01-05

We conclude that population fluctuations in Microtus in southern Indiana are produced by a syndrome of changes in birth and death rates similar to that found in other species of voles and lemmings. The mechanisms which cause the changes in birth and death rates are demolished by fencing the population so that no dispersal can occur. Dispersal thus seems critical for population regulation in Microtus. Because most dispersal occurs during the increase phase of the population cycle and there is little dispersal during the decline phase, dispersal is not directly related to population density. Hence the quality of dispersing animals must be important, and we have found one case of increased dispersal tendency by one genotype. The failure of population regulation of Microtus in enclosed areas requires an explanation by any hypothesis attempting to explain population cycles in small rodents. It might be suggested that the fence changed the predation pressure on the enclosed populations. However, the fence was only 2 feet (0.6 meter) high and did not stop the entrance of foxes, weasels, shrews, or avian predators. A striking feature was that the habitat in the enclosures quickly recovered from complete devastation by the start of the spring growing season. Obviously the habitat and food quality were sufficient to support Microtus populations of abnormally high densities, and recovery of the habitat was sufficiently quick that the introduction of new animals to these enclosed areas resulted in another population explosion. Finally, hypotheses of population regulation by social stress must account for the finding that Microtus can exist at densities several times greater than normal without "stress" taking an obvious toll. We hypothesize that the prevention of dispersal changes the quality of the populations in the enclosures in comparison to those outside the fence. Voles forced to remain in an overcrowded fenced population do not suffer high mortality rates and continue to reproduce at abnormally high densities until starvation overtakes them. The initial behavioral interactions associated with crowding do not seem sufficient to cause voles to die in situ. What happens to animals during the population decline? Our studies have not answered this question. The animals did not appear to disperse, but it is possible that the method we used to measure dispersal (movement into a vacant habitat) missed a large segment of dispersing voles which did not remain in the vacant area but kept on moving. Perhaps the dispersal during the increase phase of the population cycle is a colonization type of dispersal, and the animals taking part in it are likely to stay in a new habitat, while during the population decline dispersal is a pathological response to high density, and the animals are not attracted to settling even in a vacant habitat. The alternative to this suggestion is that animals are dying in situ during the decline because of physiological or genetically determined behavioral stress. Thus the fencing of a population prevents the change in rates of survival and reproduction, from high rates in the increase phase to low rates in the decline phase, and the fenced populations resemble "mouse plagues." A possible explanation is that the differential dispersal of animals during the phase of increase causes the quality of the voles remaining at peak densities in wild populations to be different from the quality of voles at much higher densities in enclosures. Increased sensitivity to density in Microtus could cause the decline of wild populations at densities lower than those reached by fenced populations in which selection through dispersal has been prevented. Fencing might also alter the social interactions among Microtus in other ways that are not understood. The analysis of colonizing species by MacArthur and Wilson (27) can be applied to our studies of dispersal in populations of Microtus. Groups of organisms with good dispersal and colonizing ability are called r strategists because they have high reproductive potential and are able to exploit a new environment rapidly. Dispersing voles seem to be r strategists. Young females in breeding condition were over-represented in dispersing female Microtus (17). The Tf(C)/Tf(E) females, which were more common among dispersers during the phase of population increase (Fig. 6), also have a slight reproductive advantage over the other Tf genotypes (19). Thus in Microtus populations the animals with the highest reproductive potential, the r strategists, are dispersing. The segment of the population which remains behind after the selection-via-dispersal are those individuals which are less influenced by increasing population densities. These are the individuals which maximize use of the habitat, the K strategists in MacArthur and Wilson's terminology, or voles selected for spacing behavior. Thus we can describe population cycles in Microtus in the same theoretical framework as colonizing species on islands. Our work on Microtus is consistent with the hypothesis of genetic and behavioral effects proposed by Chitty (6) (Fig. 7) in that it shows both behavioral differences in males during the phases of population fluctuation and periods of strong genetic selection. The greatest gaps in our knowledge are in the area of genetic-behavioral interactions which are most difficult to measure. We have no information on the heritability of aggressive behavior in voles. The pathways by which behavioral events are translated into physiological changes which affect reproduction and growth have been carefully analyzed by Christian and his associates (28) for rodents in laboratory situations, but the application of these findings to the complex field events described above remains to be done. Several experiments are suggested by our work. First, other populations of other rodent species should increase to abnormal densities if enclosed in a large fenced area (29). We need to find situations in which this prediction is not fulfilled. Island populations may be an important source of material for such an experiment (30). Second, if one-way exit doors were provided from a fenced area, normal population regulation through dispersal should occur. This experiment would provide another method by which dispersers could be identified. Third, if dispersal were prevented after a population reached peak densities, a normal decline phase should occur. This prediction is based on the assumption that dispersal during the increase phase is sufficient to ensure the decline phase 1 or 2 years later. All these experiments are concerned with the dispersal factor, and our work on Microtus can be summarized by the admonition: study dispersal.

Spatial distribution of U.S. household carbon footprints reveals suburbanization undermines greenhouse gas benefits of urban population density.

PubMed

Jones, Christopher; Kammen, Daniel M

2014-01-21

Which municipalities and locations within the United States contribute the most to household greenhouse gas emissions, and what is the effect of population density and suburbanization on emissions? Using national household surveys, we developed econometric models of demand for energy, transportation, food, goods, and services that were used to derive average household carbon footprints (HCF) for U.S. zip codes, cities, counties, and metropolitan areas. We find consistently lower HCF in urban core cities (∼ 40 tCO2e) and higher carbon footprints in outlying suburbs (∼ 50 tCO2e), with a range from ∼ 25 to >80 tCO2e in the 50 largest metropolitan areas. Population density exhibits a weak but positive correlation with HCF until a density threshold is met, after which range, mean, and standard deviation of HCF decline. While population density contributes to relatively low HCF in the central cities of large metropolitan areas, the more extensive suburbanization in these regions contributes to an overall net increase in HCF compared to smaller metropolitan areas. Suburbs alone account for ∼ 50% of total U.S. HCF. Differences in the size, composition, and location of household carbon footprints suggest the need for tailoring of greenhouse gas mitigation efforts to different populations.

Response of ecosystem metabolism to low densities of spawning Chinook Salmon

Treesearch

Joseph R. Benjamin; J. Ryan Bellmore; Grace A. Watson

2016-01-01

Marine derived nutrients delivered by large runs of returning salmon are thought to subsidize the in situ food resources that support juvenile salmon. In the Pacific Northwest, USA, salmon have declined to <10% of their historical abundance, with subsequent declines of marine derived nutrients once provided by large salmon runs. We explored whether low densities...

Devil Declines and Catastrophic Cascades: Is Mesopredator Release of Feral Cats Inhibiting Recovery of the Eastern Quoll?

PubMed Central

Fancourt, Bronwyn A.; Hawkins, Clare E.; Cameron, Elissa Z.; Jones, Menna E.; Nicol, Stewart C.

2015-01-01

The eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) is a medium-sized Australian marsupial carnivore that has recently undergone a rapid and severe population decline over the 10 years to 2009, with no sign of recovery. This decline has been linked to a period of unfavourable weather, but subsequent improved weather conditions have not been matched by quoll recovery. A recent study suggested another mechanism: that declines in Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) populations, due to the spread of the fatal Devil Facial Tumour Disease, have released feral cats (Felis catus) from competitive suppression, with eastern quoll declines linked to a subsequent increase in cat sightings. Yet current evidence of intraguild suppression among devils, cats and quolls is scant and equivocal. We therefore assessed the influences of top-down effects on abundance and activity patterns among devils, feral cats and eastern quolls. Between 2011 and 2013, we monitored four carnivore populations using longitudinal trapping and camera surveys, and performed camera surveys at 12 additional sites throughout the eastern quoll’s range. We did not find evidence of a negative relationship between devil and cat abundance, nor of higher cat abundance in areas where devil populations had declined the longest. Cats did not appear to avoid devils spatially; however, there was evidence of temporal separation of cat and devil activity, with reduced separation and increasing nocturnal activity observed in areas where devils had declined the longest. Cats and quolls used the same areas, and there was no evidence that cat and quoll abundances were negatively related. Temporal overlap in observed cat and quoll activity was higher in summer than in winter, but this seasonal difference was unrelated to devil declines. We suggest that cats did not cause the recent quoll decline, but that predation of juvenile quolls by cats could be inhibiting low density quoll populations from recovering their former abundance through a ‘predator pit’ effect following weather-induced decline. Predation intensity could increase further should cats become increasingly nocturnal in response to devil declines. PMID:25760348

Devil declines and catastrophic cascades: is mesopredator release of feral cats inhibiting recovery of the eastern quoll?

PubMed

Fancourt, Bronwyn A; Hawkins, Clare E; Cameron, Elissa Z; Jones, Menna E; Nicol, Stewart C

2015-01-01

The eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) is a medium-sized Australian marsupial carnivore that has recently undergone a rapid and severe population decline over the 10 years to 2009, with no sign of recovery. This decline has been linked to a period of unfavourable weather, but subsequent improved weather conditions have not been matched by quoll recovery. A recent study suggested another mechanism: that declines in Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) populations, due to the spread of the fatal Devil Facial Tumour Disease, have released feral cats (Felis catus) from competitive suppression, with eastern quoll declines linked to a subsequent increase in cat sightings. Yet current evidence of intraguild suppression among devils, cats and quolls is scant and equivocal. We therefore assessed the influences of top-down effects on abundance and activity patterns among devils, feral cats and eastern quolls. Between 2011 and 2013, we monitored four carnivore populations using longitudinal trapping and camera surveys, and performed camera surveys at 12 additional sites throughout the eastern quoll's range. We did not find evidence of a negative relationship between devil and cat abundance, nor of higher cat abundance in areas where devil populations had declined the longest. Cats did not appear to avoid devils spatially; however, there was evidence of temporal separation of cat and devil activity, with reduced separation and increasing nocturnal activity observed in areas where devils had declined the longest. Cats and quolls used the same areas, and there was no evidence that cat and quoll abundances were negatively related. Temporal overlap in observed cat and quoll activity was higher in summer than in winter, but this seasonal difference was unrelated to devil declines. We suggest that cats did not cause the recent quoll decline, but that predation of juvenile quolls by cats could be inhibiting low density quoll populations from recovering their former abundance through a 'predator pit' effect following weather-induced decline. Predation intensity could increase further should cats become increasingly nocturnal in response to devil declines.

Habitat characteristics of adult frosted elfins (Callophrys irus) in sandplain communities of southeastern Massachusetts, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albanese, G.; Vickery, P.D.; Sievert, P.R.

2007-01-01

Changes to land use and disturbance frequency threaten disturbance-dependent Lepidoptera within sandplain habitats of the northeastern United States. The frosted elfin (Callophrys irus) is a rare and declining monophagous butterfly that is found in xeric open habitats maintained by disturbance. We surveyed potential habitat for adult frosted elfins at four sites containing frosted elfin populations in southeastern Massachusetts, United States. Based on the survey data, we used kernel density estimation to establish separate adult frosted elfin density classes, and then used regression tree analysis to describe the relationship between density and habitat features. Adult frosted elfin density was greatest when the host plant, wild indigo (Baptisia tinctoria), density was >2.6 plants/m2 and tree canopy cover was <29%. Frosted elfin density was inversely related to tree cover and declined when the density of wild indigo was <2.6 plants/m2 and shrub cover was ???16%. Even small quantities of non-native shrub cover negatively affected elfin densities. This effect was more pronounced when native herbaceous cover was <36%. Our results indicate that management for frosted elfins should aim to increase both wild indigo density and native herbaceous cover and limit native tree and shrub cover in open sandplain habitats. Elimination of non-native shrub cover is also recommended because of the negative effects of even low non-native shrub cover on frosted elfin densities. The maintenance of patches of early successional sandplain habitat with the combination of low tree and shrub cover, high host plant densities, and the absence of non-native shrubs appears essential for frosted elfin persistence, but may also be beneficial for a number of other rare sandplain insects and plant species. ?? 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population dynamics of long-tailed ducks breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schamber, Jason L.; Flint, Paul L.; Grand, J. Barry; Wilson, Heather M.; Morse, Julie A.

2009-01-01

Population estimates for long-tailed ducks in North America have declined by nearly 50% over the past 30 years. Life history and population dynamics of this species are difficult to ascertain, because the birds nest at low densities across a broad range of habitat types. Between 1991 and 2004, we collected information on productivity and survival of long-tailed ducks at three locations on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta. Clutch size averaged 7.1 eggs, and nesting success averaged 30%. Duckling survival to 30 days old averaged 10% but was highly variable among years, ranging from 0% to 25%. Apparent annual survival of adult females based on mark-recapture of nesting females was estimated at 74%. We combined these estimates of survival and productivity into a matrix-based population model, which predicted an annual population decline of 19%. Elasticities indicated that population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to changes in adult female survival. Further, the relatively high sensitivity of λ to duckling survival suggests that low duckling survival may be a bottleneck to productivity in some years. These data represent the first attempt to synthesize a population model for this species. Although our analyses were hampered by the small sample sizes inherent in studying a dispersed nesting species, our model provides a basis for management actions and can be enhanced as additional data become available.

Density-dependent regulation of population size in colonial breeders: Allee and buffer effects in the migratory Montagu's harrier.

PubMed

Soutullo, Alvaro; Limiñana, Rubén; Urios, Vicente; Surroca, Martín; A Gill, Jennifer

2006-09-01

Expanding populations offer an opportunity to uncover the processes driving spatial variation in distribution and abundance. Individual settlement decisions will be influenced by the availability and relative quality of patches, and by how these respond to changes in conspecific density. For example, conspecific presence can alter patch suitability through reductions in resource availability or territorial exclusion, leading to buffer effect patterns of disproportionate population expansion into poorer quality areas. However, conspecific presence can also enhance patch suitability through Allee effect processes, such as transmission of information about resources or improved predator detection and deterrence. Here, we explore the factors underlying the settlement pattern of a growing population of Montagu's harriers (Circus pygargus) in Spain. The population increased exponentially between 1981 and 2001, but stabilised between 2001 and 2004. This population increase occurred alongside a remarkable spatial expansion, with novel site use occurring prior to maximum densities in occupied sites being reached. However, no temporal trends in fecundity were observed and, within sites, average fecundity did not decline with increasing density. Across the population, variance in productivity did increase with population size, suggesting a complex pattern of density-dependent costs and benefits. We suggest that both Allee and buffer effects are operating in this system, with the benefits of conspecific presence counteracting density-dependent declines in resource availability or quality.

Nautilus at Risk – Estimating Population Size and Demography of Nautilus pompilius

PubMed Central

Dunstan, Andrew; Bradshaw, Corey J. A.; Marshall, Justin

2011-01-01

The low fecundity, late maturity, long gestation and long life span of Nautilus suggest that this species is vulnerable to over-exploitation. Demand from the ornamental shell trade has contributed to their rapid decline in localized populations. More data from wild populations are needed to design management plans which ensure Nautilus persistence. We used a variety of techniques including capture-mark-recapture, baited remote underwater video systems, ultrasonic telemetry and remotely operated vehicles to estimate population size, growth rates, distribution and demographic characteristics of an unexploited Nautilus pompilius population at Osprey Reef (Coral Sea, Australia). We estimated a small and dispersed population of between 844 and 4467 individuals (14.6–77.4 km−2) dominated by males (83∶17 male∶female) and comprised of few juveniles (<10%).These results provide the first Nautilid population and density estimates which are essential elements for long-term management of populations via sustainable catch models. Results from baited remote underwater video systems provide confidence for their more widespread use to assess efficiently the size and density of exploited and unexploited Nautilus populations worldwide. PMID:21347360

The Potential for Spatial Distribution Indices to Signal Thresholds in Marine Fish Biomass

PubMed Central

Reuchlin-Hugenholtz, Emilie

2015-01-01

The frequently observed positive relationship between fish population abundance and spatial distribution suggests that changes in distribution can be indicative of trends in abundance. If contractions in spatial distribution precede declines in spawning stock biomass (SSB), spatial distribution reference points could complement the SSB reference points that are commonly used in marine conservation biology and fisheries management. When relevant spatial distribution information is integrated into fisheries management and recovery plans, risks and uncertainties associated with a plan based solely on the SSB criterion would be reduced. To assess the added value of spatial distribution data, we examine the relationship between SSB and four metrics of spatial distribution intended to reflect changes in population range, concentration, and density for 10 demersal populations (9 species) inhabiting the Scotian Shelf, Northwest Atlantic. Our primary purpose is to assess their potential to serve as indices of SSB, using fisheries independent survey data. We find that metrics of density offer the best correlate of spawner biomass. A decline in the frequency of encountering high density areas is associated with, and in a few cases preceded by, rapid declines in SSB in 6 of 10 populations. Density-based indices have considerable potential to serve both as an indicator of SSB and as spatially based reference points in fisheries management. PMID:25789624

Population ecology of the mallard: II. Breeding habitat conditions, size of the breeding populations, and production indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pospahala, Richard S.; Anderson, David R.; Henny, Charles J.

1974-01-01

This report, the second in a series on a comprehensive analysis of mallard population data, provides information on mallard breeding habitat, the size and distribution of breeding populations, and indices to production. The information in this report is primarily the result of large-scale aerial surveys conducted during May and July, 1955-73. The history of the conflict in resource utilization between agriculturalists and wildlife conservation interests in the primary waterfowl breeding grounds is reviewed. The numbers of ponds present during the breeding season and the midsummer period and the effects of precipitation and temperature on the number of ponds present are analyzed in detail. No significant cycles in precipitation were detected and it appears that precipitation is primarily influenced by substantial seasonal and random components. Annual estimates (1955-73) of the number of mallards in surveyed and unsurveyed breeding areas provided estimates of the size and geographic distribution of breeding mallards in North America. The estimated size of the mallard breeding population in North America has ranged from a high of 14.4 million in 1958 to a low of 7.1 million in 1965. Generally, the mallard breeding population began to decline after the 1958 peak until 1962, and remained below 10 million birds until 1970. The decline and subsequent low level of the mallard population between 1959 and 1969 .generally coincided with a period of poor habitat conditions on the major breeding grounds. The density of mallards was highest in the Prairie-Parkland Area with an average of nearly 19.2 birds per square mile. The proportion of the continental mallard breeding population in the Prairie-Parkland Area ranged from 30% in 1962 to a high of 600/0 in 1956. The geographic distribution of breeding mallards throughout North America was significantly related to the number of May ponds in the Prairie-Parkland Area. Estimates of midsummer habitat conditions and indices to production from the July Production Survey were studied in detail. Several indices relating to production showed marked declines from west to east in the Prairie-Parkland Area, these are: (1) density of breeding mallards (per square mile and per May pond), (2) brood density (per square mile and per July pond), (3) average brood size (all species combined), and (4) brood survival from class II to class III. An index to late nesting and renesting efforts was highest during years when midsummer water conditions were good. Production rates of many ducks breeding in North America appear to be regulated by both density-dependent and density-independent factors. Spacing of birds in the Prairie-Parkland Area appeared to be a key factor in the density-dependent regulation of the population. The spacing mechanism, in conjunction with habitat conditions, influenced some birds to overfly the primary breeding grounds into less favorable habitats to the north and northwest where the production rate may be suppressed. The production rate of waterfowl in the Prairie Parkland Area seems to be independent of density (after emigration has taken place) because the production index appears to be a linear function of the number of breeding birds in the area. Similarly, the production rate of waterfowl in northern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba appeared to be independent of density. Production indices in these northern areas appear to be a linear function of the size of the breeding population. Thus, the density and distribution of breeding ducks is probably regulated through a spacing mechanism that is at least partially dependent on measurable environmental factors. The result is a density-dependent process operating to ultimately effect the production and production rate of breeding ducks on a continent-wide basis. Continental production, and therefore the size of the fall population, is probably partially regulated by the number of birds that are distributed north and northwest into environments less favorable for successful reproduction. Thus, spacing of the birds in the Prairie-Parkland Area and the movement of a fraction of the birds out of the prime breeding areas may be key factors in the density-dependent regulation of the total mallard population.

Warfare and wildlife declines in Africa's protected areas.

PubMed

Daskin, Joshua H; Pringle, Robert M

2018-01-18

Large-mammal populations are ecological linchpins, and their worldwide decline and extinction disrupts many ecosystem functions and services. Reversal of this trend will require an understanding of the determinants of population decline, to enable more accurate predictions of when and where collapses will occur and to guide the development of effective conservation and restoration policies. Many correlates of large-mammal declines are known, including low reproductive rates, overhunting, and habitat destruction. However, persistent uncertainty about the effects of one widespread factor-armed conflict-complicates conservation-planning and priority-setting efforts. Case studies have revealed that conflict can have either positive or negative local impacts on wildlife, but the direction and magnitude of its net effect over large spatiotemporal scales have not previously been quantified. Here we show that conflict frequency predicts the occurrence and severity of population declines among wild large herbivores in African protected areas from 1946 to 2010. Conflict was extensive during this period, occurring in 71% of protected areas, and conflict frequency was the single most important predictor of wildlife population trends among the variables that we analysed. Population trajectories were stable in peacetime, fell significantly below replacement with only slight increases in conflict frequency (one conflict-year per two-to-five decades), and were almost invariably negative in high-conflict sites, both in the full 65-year dataset and in an analysis restricted to recent decades (1989-2010). Yet total population collapse was infrequent, indicating that war-torn faunas can often recover. Human population density was also correlated (positively) with wildlife population trajectories in recent years; however, we found no significant effect, in either timespan, of species body mass, protected-area size, conflict intensity (human fatalities), drought frequency, presence of extractable mineral resources, or various metrics of development and governance. Our results suggest that sustained conservation activity in conflict zones-and rapid interventions following ceasefires-may help to save many at-risk populations and species.

A Rubric for Extracting Idea Density from Oral Language Samples

PubMed Central

Chand, Vineeta; Baynes, Kathleen; Bonnici, Lisa M.; Farias, Sarah Tomaszewski

2012-01-01

While past research has demonstrated that low idea density (ID) scores from natural language samples correlate with late life risk for cognitive decline and Alzheimer’s disease pathology, there are no published rubrics for collecting and analyzing language samples for idea density to verify or extend these findings into new settings. This paper outlines the history of ID research and findings, discusses issues with past rubrics, and then presents an operationalized method for the systematic measurement of ID in language samples, with an extensive manual available as a supplement to this article (Analysis of Idea Density, AID). Finally, reliability statistics for this rubric in the context of dementia research on aging populations and verification that AID can replicate the significant association between ID and late life cognition are presented. PMID:23042498

Changes in sediment-associated trace element concentrations in the Seine river basin (1994-2001)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meybeck, Michel; Horowitz, A.J.; Grosbois, C.; Gueguen, Y.; ,

2003-01-01

In the 1980's, based on the concentrations of particulate-associated Hg, Cd, Pb, Cu and Zn relative to very low natural background levels, the Seine River Basin was one of the most impacted in the world. Over the past 20 years, there has been a general decline in these elevated concentrations that parallels declines in Paris sewage sludge trace element levels. Within the basin, marked differences in spatial and temporal geochemical patterns have been observed: (1) between major tributaries, (2) between trace elements, and (3) with stream order and population density, all of which illustrate the complexity of the geochemical processes ongoing in the basin.

Fish community changes in the St. Louis River estuary, Lake Superior, 1989-1996: Is it ruffe or population dynamics?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bronte, Charles R.; Evrard, Lori M.; Brown, William P.; Mayo, Kathleen R.; Edwards, Andrew J.

1998-01-01

Ruffe (Gymnocephalus cernuus) have been implicated in density declines of native species through egg predation and competition for food in some European waters where they were introduced. Density estimates for ruffe and principal native fishes in the St. Louis River estuary (western Lake Superior) were developed for 1989 to 1996 to measure changes in the fish community in response to an unintentional introduction of ruffe. During the study, ruffe density increased and the densities of several native species decreased. The reductions of native stocks to the natural population dynamics of the same species from Chequamegon Bay, Lake Superior (an area with very few ruffe) were developed, where there was a 24-year record of density. Using these data, short- and long-term variations in catch and correlations among species within years were compared, and species-specific distributions were developed of observed trends in abundance of native fishes in Chequamegon Bay indexed by the slopes of densities across years. From these distributions and our observed trend-line slopes from the St. Louis River, probabilities of measuring negative change at the magnitude observed in the St. Louis River were estimated. Compared with trends in Chequamegon Bay, there was a high probability of obtaining the negative slopes measured for most species, which suggests natural population dynamics could explain, the declines rather than interactions with ruffe. Variable recruitment, which was not related to ruffe density, and associated density-dependent changes in mortality likely were responsible for density declines of native species.

CATASTROPHIC DECLINE OF A HIGH-DENSITY POPULATION OF COTTON RATS (SIGMODIN HISPIDUS) IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

EPA Science Inventory

Along the northern periphery of their range, populations of the hispid cotton rat, Sigmodon hispidus, are vulnerable to major reductions in density and occasional local extinctions as a result of severe winter weather. Between our sampling periods on 3 December 2000 and 14 Januar...

Density dependence, whitebark pine, and vital rates of grizzly bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Manen, Frank T.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Bjornlie, Daniel D.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Costello, Cecily M.; White, Gary C.

2016-01-01

Understanding factors influencing changes in population trajectory is important for effective wildlife management, particularly for populations of conservation concern. Annual population growth of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA has slowed from 4.2–7.6% during 1983–2001 to 0.3–2.2% during 2002–2011. Substantial changes in availability of a key food source and bear population density have occurred. Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), the seeds of which are a valuable but variable fall food for grizzly bears, has experienced substantial mortality primarily due to a mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak that started in the early 2000s. Positive growth rates of grizzly bears have resulted in populations reaching high densities in some areas and have contributed to continued range expansion. We tested research hypotheses to examine if changes in vital rates detected during the past decade were more associated with whitebark pine decline or, alternatively, increasing grizzly bear density. We focused our assessment on known-fate data to estimate survival of cubs-of-the-year (cubs), yearlings, and independent bears (≥2 yrs), and reproductive transition of females from having no offspring to having cubs. We used spatially and temporally explicit indices for grizzly bear density and whitebark pine mortality as individual covariates. Models indicated moderate support for an increase in survival of independent male bears over 1983–2012, whereas independent female survival did not change. Cub survival, yearling survival, and reproductive transition from no offspring to cubs all changed during the 30-year study period, with lower rates evident during the last 10–15 years. Cub survival and reproductive transition were negatively associated with an index of grizzly bear density, indicating greater declines where bear densities were higher. Our analyses did not support a similar relationship for the index of whitebark pine mortality. The results of our study support the interpretation that slowing of population growth during the last decade was associated more with increasing grizzly bear density than the decline in whitebark pine. Grizzly bear density and its potential effect on vital rates and population trajectory warrant consideration for management of the grizzly bear population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

Ecophysiology of Nais elinguis (Oligochaeta) in a brackish-water lagoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Little, Colin

1984-02-01

Population densities of Nais elinguis Müller were determined in Swanpool, a brackish-water lagoon at Falmouth, Cornwall, U.K., over a four-year period. High densities were found only from January to May, usually with a peak in March. Significant negative correlations were shown between population density and both salinity and temperature. In laboratory tests, feeding rates remained unchanged from freshwater to 20‰ salinity (S), but declined above this salinity. Nais elinguis was shown to be a good osmoregulator, remaining hyperosmotic below 7‰ S, and hypo-osmotic above this. Feeding rate showed a Q 10 of approximately 2 from 1 to 25°C, but above this the rate declined. Feeding rate was unaffected between pH 6 and 11. Increased salinity to (10‰ S) did not influence the effect of temperature on feeding rate. This high salinity did reduce feeding rate at a pH of 10 and above. It is concluded that the physical and chemical variables considered are unlikely to be direct causal factors limiting populations of N. elinguis in Swanpool. The influence of food supply, competition, predation and changes in reproductive mode are discussed as possible controlling factors. It is shown that the population decline of N. elinguis in early summer usually coincides with the rise of populations of chironomid larvae.

Scaling rules for the final decline to extinction

PubMed Central

Griffen, Blaine D.; Drake, John M.

2009-01-01

Space–time scaling rules are ubiquitous in ecological phenomena. Current theory postulates three scaling rules that describe the duration of a population's final decline to extinction, although these predictions have not previously been empirically confirmed. We examine these scaling rules across a broader set of conditions, including a wide range of density-dependent patterns in the underlying population dynamics. We then report on tests of these predictions from experiments using the cladoceran Daphnia magna as a model. Our results support two predictions that: (i) the duration of population persistence is much greater than the duration of the final decline to extinction and (ii) the duration of the final decline to extinction increases with the logarithm of the population's estimated carrying capacity. However, our results do not support a third prediction that the duration of the final decline scales inversely with population growth rate. These findings not only support the current standard theory of population extinction but also introduce new empirical anomalies awaiting a theoretical explanation. PMID:19141422

Phenology, seed dispersal and difficulties in natural recruitment of the canopy tree Pachira quinata (Malvaceae).

PubMed

Castellanos, Maria Clara; Stevenson, Pablo R

2011-06-01

Life history and recruitment information of tropical trees in natural populations is scarce even for important commercial species. This study focused on a widely exploited Neotropical canopy species, Pachira quinata (Malvaceae), at the southernmost, wettest limit of its natural distribution, in the Colombian Amazonia. We studied phenological patterns, seed production and natural densities; assessed the importance of seed dispersal and density-dependent effects on recruitment, using field experiments. At this seasonal forest P. quinata was overrepresented by large adult trees and had very low recruitment caused by the combination of low fruit production, high seed predation and very high seedling mortality under continuous canopies mostly due to damping off pathogens. There was no evidence of negative distance or density effects on recruitment, but a clear requirement of canopy gaps for seedling survival and growth, where pathogen incidence was drastically reduced. In spite of the strong dependence on light for survival of seedlings, seeds germinated readily in the dark. At the study site, the population of P. quinata appeared to be declining, likely because recruitment depended on the rare combination of large gap formation with the presence of reproductive trees nearby. The recruitment biology of this species makes it very vulnerable to any type of logging in natural populations.

Wildlife disease ecology in changing landscapes: Mesopredator release and toxoplasmosis

PubMed Central

Hollings, Tracey; Jones, Menna; Mooney, Nick; McCallum, Hamish

2013-01-01

Changing ecosystem dynamics are increasing the threat of disease epidemics arising in wildlife populations. Several recent disease outbreaks have highlighted the critical need for understanding pathogen dynamics, including the role host densities play in disease transmission. In Australia, introduced feral cats are of immense concern because of the risk they pose to native wildlife through predation and competition. They are also the only known definitive host of the coccidian parasite, Toxoplasma gondii, the population-level impacts of which are unknown in any species. Australia’s native wildlife have not evolved in the presence of cats or their parasites, and feral cats may be linked with several native mammal declines and extinctions. In Tasmania there is emerging evidence that feral cat populations are increasing following wide-ranging and extensive declines in the apex predator, the Tasmanian devil, from a consistently fatal transmissible cancer. We assess whether feral cat density is associated with the seroprevalence of T. gondii in native wildlife to determine whether an increasing population of feral cats may correspond to an increased level of risk to naive native intermediate hosts. We found evidence that seroprevalence of T. gondii in Tasmanian pademelons was lower in the north-west of Tasmania than in the north-east and central regions where cat density was higher. Also, samples obtained from road-killed animals had significantly higher seroprevalence of T. gondii than those from culled individuals, suggesting there may be behavioural differences associated with infection. In addition, seroprevalence in different trophic levels was assessed to determine whether position in the food-web influences exposure risk. Higher order carnivores had significantly higher seroprevalence than medium-sized browser species. The highest seroprevalence observed in an intermediate host was 71% in spotted-tailed quolls (Dasyurus maculatus), the largest mammalian mesopredator, in areas of low cat density. Mesopredator release of cats may be a significant issue for native species conservation, potentially affecting the population viability of many endangered species. PMID:24533323

Productivity, mortality, and population trends of wolves in northeastern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L.D.

1977-01-01

Population parameters, mortality causes, and mechanisms of a population decline were studied in wolves (Canis lupus lycaon) from 1968 to 1976 in the Superior National Forest. The main method was aerial radio-tracking of 129 wolves and their packmates. Due to a decline in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), the wolf population decreased during most of the study. Average annual productivity varied from 1.5 to 3.3 pups per litter, and annual mortality rates from 7 to 65 percent. Malnutrition and intraspecific strife accounted equally for 58 percent of the mortality; human causes accounted for the remainder. As wolf numbers began to decline, pup starvation became apparent, followed by lower pup production, and then by increased intraspecific strife. At higher densities, adult pack wolves were the most secure members of the population, but as the population declined, they became the least secure because of intraspecific strife.

Dealing with China's future population decline: a proposal for replacing low birth rates with sustainable rates.

PubMed

Cao, Shixiong; Wang, Xiuqing

2009-09-01

Decreasing population levels due to declining birth rates are becoming a potentially serious social problem in developed and rapidly developing countries. China urgently needed to reduce birth rates so that its population would decline to a sustainable level, and the family planning policy designed to achieve this goal has largely succeeded. However, continuing to pursue this policy is leading to serious, unanticipated problems such as a shift in the country's population distribution towards the elderly and increasing difficulty supporting that elderly population. Social and political changes that promoted low birth rates and the lack of effective policies to encourage higher birth rates suggest that mitigating the consequences of the predicted population decline will depend on a revised approach based on achieving sustainable birth rates.

Effects of distance from cattle water developments on grassland birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fontaine, A.L.; Kennedy, P.L.; Johnson, D.H.

2004-01-01

Many North American grassland bird populations appear to be declining, which may be due to changes in grazing regimes on their breeding areas. Establishment of water developments and confining cattle (Bos taurus L.) to small pastures often minimizes spatial heterogeneity of cattle forage consumption, which may lead to uniformity in vegetative structure. This increased uniformity may provide suitable habitat for some bird species but not others. We assessed how cattle use, vegetative structure, and bird population densities varied with increasing distance from water developments (0DS800 m) on the Little Missouri National Grassland (LMNG) in North Dakota. Lark buntings (Calamospiza melancorys Stejneger), which are typically associated with low vegetative cover, decreased with increasing distance from water developments. Horned larks (Eremophila alpestris L.), also a low-cover associate, followed a similar but weaker trend. Densities of another low-cover associate as well as moderate- and high-cover associates were not related to distance from water. Vegetative height-density and litter depth increased by 50 and 112%, respectively, while cowpie cover and structural variability decreased by 51 and 24%, respectively, with distance from water. Confidence interval overlap was common among all measures, showing substantial variability among study sites. Our results indicate cattle use is higher closer to water developments, and this pattern may positively affect the densities of lark buntings and horned larks. The absence of density gradients in the other bird species may be due to the paucity of locations > 800 m from water on the LMNG.

Effects of distance from cattle water developments on grassland birds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fontaine, A.L.; Kennedy, P.L.; Johnson, D.H.

2004-01-01

Many North American grassland bird populations appear to be declining, which may be due to changes in grazing regimes on their breeding areas. Establishment of water developments and confining cattle (Bos taurus L.) to small pastures often minimizes spatial heterogeneity of cattle forage consumption, which may lead to uniformity in vegetative structure. This increased uniformity may provide suitable habitat for some bird species but not others. We assessed how cattle use, vegetative structure, and bird population densities varied with increasing distance from water developments (0-800 m) on the Little Missouri National Grassland (LMNG) in North Dakota. Lark buntings (Calamospiza melancorys Stejneger), which are typically associated with low vegetative cover, decreased with increasing distance from water developments. Horned larks (Eremophila alpestris L.), also a low-cover associate, followed a similar but weaker trend. Densities of another low-cover associate as well as moderate- and high-cover associates were not related to distance from water. Vegetative height-density and litter depth increased by 50 and 112%, respectively, while cowpie cover and structural variability decreased by 51 and 24%, respectively, with distance from water. Confidence interval overlap was common among all measures, showing substantial variability among study sites. Our results indicate cattle use is higher closer to water developments, and this pattern may positively affect the densities of lark buntings and horned larks. The absence of density gradients in the other bird species may be due to the paucity of locations > 800 m from water on the LMNG.

Consequences of actively managing a small Bull Trout population in a fragmented landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Moran, Sean; McHugh, Peter; Bernall, Shana; Fredenberg, Wade; DosSantos, Joseph M.

2015-01-01

Habitat fragmentation, which affects many native salmonid species, is one of the major factors contributing to the declines in distribution and abundance of Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus. Increasingly, managers are considering options to maintain and enhance the persistence of isolated local populations through active management strategies. Understanding the ecological consequences of such actions is a necessary step in conservation planning. We used an individual-based model to evaluate the consequences of an ongoing management program aimed at mitigating the anthropogenic fragmentation of the lower Clark Fork River in Montana. Under this program juvenile Bull Trout are trapped and transported from small, headwater source populations to Lake Pend Oreille, Idaho, for rearing, and adults are subsequently recaptured in their upstream migration and returned to the natal population for spawning. We examined one of these populations and integrated empirical estimates of demographic parameters to simulate different management scenarios where moderate (n = 4) and high (n = 8) numbers of age-2, age-3, or age-4 Bull Trout were removed for transport with variable return rates under both demographic stochasticity and environmental perturbations. Our results indicated the risks from removal with no returns increased substantially when removal totals and age of Bull Trout removed from the simulated population increased. Specifically, removing eight age-3 or age-4 individuals resulted in 26% and 62% reductions in average adult population size, respectively, across simulations. We found the risks of transport were not likely alleviated with low (3%) or moderate (6%) return rates, and there were considerable risks of declines for the source population even when return rates were extremely high (>12%). Our simulations indicated little risk of declines for the source population with removals of age-2 Bull Trout, and any risks were alleviated with low return rates. However, we found higher return rates were particularly beneficial in the presence of large, density-independent perturbations.

Mysis diluviana population and cohort dynamics in Lake Ontario before and after the establishment of Dreissena spp., Cercopagis pengoi, and Bythotrephes longimanus

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johannsson, Ora E.; Bowen, Kelly L.; Holeck, Kristen T.; Walsh, Maureen G.

2011-01-01

We investigated population responses of Mysis to ecosystem changes induced by invasion of dreissenids and predatory cladocerans, Cercopagis and Bythotrephes. Lake productivity declined as dreissenids invaded the offshore region. Whole-lake mysid biomass was compared before (early 1990s) and after (2002–2007) the invasion period; it declined 40%–45%. Abundance of young mysids and presence of a summer cohort increased with summer, epilmnetic, nighttime zooplankton biomass (i.e., food biomass index). Cercopagis + Bythotrephes biomass was negatively correlated with this index, implicating them in the mysid decline. Eggs per gravid female increased with autumn, total-water-column zooplankton biomass, reflecting the greater use of hypolimnetic waters by adults. Reproductive success was below replacement during the period 2002–2005. First-year mysid growth rate was maintained while population abundance declined, suggesting selection for individuals that feed effectively at low food concentrations. Mortality rates in the first and second years were dependent on cohort density, indicating that competition for food limited abundance in the first 2 years. Fish predation indices (smelt and alewife combined) were correlated positively with mortality rates and negatively with abundance in the third year. Thus, mysids cannot support as many fish in invaded compared with non-invaded lakes. They may also not be a stable food resource; unusual cohort losses occurred in some years.

Expansion of Dreissena into offshore waters of Lake Michigan and potential impacts on fish populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunnell, D.B.; Madenjian, C.P.; Holuszko, J.D.; Adams, J.V.; French, J. R. P.

2009-01-01

Lake Michigan was invaded by zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) in the late 1980s and then followed by quagga mussels (D. bugensis) around 1997. Through 2000, both species (herein Dreissena) were largely restricted to depths less than 50??m. Herein, we provide results of an annual lake-wide bottom trawl survey in Lake Michigan that reveal the relative biomass and depth distribution of Dreissena between 1999 and 2007 (although biomass estimates from a bottom trawl are biased low). Lake-wide mean biomass density (g/m2) and mean depth of collection revealed no trend between 1999 and 2003 (mean = 0.7??g/m2 and 37??m, respectively). Between 2004 and 2007, however, mean lake-wide biomass density increased from 0.8??g/m2 to 7.0??g/m2, because of increased density at depths between 30 and 110??m, and mean depth of collection increased from 42 to 77??m. This pattern was confirmed by a generalized additive model. Coincident with the Dreissena expansion that occurred beginning in 2004, fish biomass density (generally planktivores) declined 71% between 2003 and 2007. Current understanding of fish population dynamics, however, indicates that Dreissena expansion is not the primary explanation for the decline of fish, and we provide a species-specific account for more likely underlying factors. Nonetheless, future sampling and research may reveal a better understanding of the potential negative interactions between Dreissena and fish in Lake Michigan and elsewhere.

Large-scale impacts of sea star wasting disease (SSWD) on intertidal sea stars and implications for recovery

PubMed Central

Burnaford, Jennifer L.; Ambrose, Richard F.; Antrim, Liam; Bohlmann, Heath; Blanchette, Carol A.; Engle, John M.; Fradkin, Steven C.; Gaddam, Rani; Harley, Christopher D. G.; Miner, Benjamin G.; Murray, Steven N.; Smith, Jayson R.; Whitaker, Stephen G.; Raimondi, Peter T.

2018-01-01

Disease outbreaks can have substantial impacts on wild populations, but the often patchy or anecdotal evidence of these impacts impedes our ability to understand outbreak dynamics. Recently however, a severe disease outbreak occurred in a group of very well-studied organisms–sea stars along the west coast of North America. We analyzed nearly two decades of data from a coordinated monitoring effort at 88 sites ranging from southern British Columbia to San Diego, California along with 2 sites near Sitka, Alaska to better understand the effects of sea star wasting disease (SSWD) on the keystone intertidal predator, Pisaster ochraceus. Quantitative surveys revealed unprecedented declines of P. ochraceus in 2014 and 2015 across nearly the entire geographic range of the species. The intensity of the impact of SSWD was not uniform across the affected area, with proportionally greater population declines in the southern regions relative to the north. The degree of population decline was unrelated to pre-outbreak P. ochraceus density, although these factors have been linked in other well-documented disease events. While elevated seawater temperatures were not broadly linked to the initial emergence of SSWD, anomalously high seawater temperatures in 2014 and 2015 might have exacerbated the disease’s impact. Both before and after the onset of the SSWD outbreak, we documented higher recruitment of P. ochraceus in the north than in the south, and while some juveniles are surviving (as evidenced by transition of recruitment pulses to larger size classes), post-SSWD survivorship is lower than during pre-SSWD periods. In hindsight, our data suggest that the SSWD event defied prediction based on two factors found to be important in other marine disease events, sea water temperature and population density, and illustrate the importance of surveillance of natural populations as one element of an integrated approach to marine disease ecology. Low levels of SSWD-symptomatic sea stars are still present throughout the impacted range, thus the outlook for population recovery is uncertain. PMID:29558484

Effects of hatchery fish density on emigration, growth, survival, and predation risk of natural steelhead parr in an experimental stream channel

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tatara, Christopher P.; Riley, Stephen C.; Berejikian, Barry A.

2011-01-01

Hatchery supplementation of steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss raises concerns about the impacts on natural populations, including reduced growth and survival, displacement, and increased predation. The potential risks may be density dependent.We examined how hatchery stocking density and the opportunity to emigrate affect the responses of natural steelhead parr in an experimental stream channel and after 15 d found no density-dependent effects on growth, emigration, or survival at densities ranging from 1-6 hatchery parr/m2. The opportunity for steelhead parr to emigrate reduced predation by coastal cutthroat trout O. clarkii clarkii on both hatchery and natural steelhead parr. The cutthroat trout exhibited a type-I functional response (constant predation rate with increased prey density) for the hatchery and composite populations. In contrast, the predation rate on natural parr decreased as hatchery stocking density increased. Supplementation with hatchery parr at any experimental stocking density reduced the final natural parr density. This decline was explained by increased emigration fromthe supplemented groups. Natural parr had higher mean instantaneous growth rates than hatchery parr. The proportion of parr emigrating decreased as parr size increased over successive experimental trials. Smaller parr had lower survival and suffered higher predation. The final density of the composite population, a measure of supplementation effectiveness, increased with the hatchery steelhead stocking rate. Our results indicate that stocking larger hatchery parr (over 50 d postemergence) at densities within the carrying capacity would have low short-term impact on the growth, survival, and emigration of natural parr while increasing the density of the composite population; in addition, a stocking density greater than 3 fish/m2 might be a good starting point for the evaluation of parr stocking in natural streams.

Consequences for conservation: population density and genetic effects on reproduction of an endangered lagomorph.

PubMed

Demay, Stephanie M; Becker, Penny A; Waits, Lisette P; Johnson, Timothy R; Rachlow, Janet L

2016-04-01

Understanding reproduction and mating systems is important for managers tasked with conserving vulnerable species. Genetic tools allow biologists to investigate reproduction and mating systems with high resolution and are particularly useful for species that are otherwise difficult to study in their natural environments. We conducted parentage analyses using 19 nuclear DNA microsatellite loci to assess the influence of population density, genetic diversity, and ancestry on reproduction, and to examine the mating system of pygmy rabbits (Brachylagus idahoensis) bred in large naturalized enclosures for the reintroduction and recovery of the endangered distinct population in central Washington, USA. Reproductive output for females and males decreased as population density and individual homozygosity increased. We identified an interaction indicating that male reproductive output decreased as genetic diversity declined at high population densities, but there was no effect at low densities. Males with high amounts (> 50%) of Washington ancestry had higher reproductive output than the other ancestry groups, while reproductive output was decreased for males with high northern Utah/Wyoming ancestry and females with high Oregon/Nevada ancestry. Females and males bred with an average of 3.8 and 3.6 mates per year, respectively, and we found no evidence of positive or negative assortative mating with regards to ancestry. Multiple paternity was confirmed in 81% of litters, and we report the first documented cases of juvenile breeding by pygmy rabbits. This study demonstrates how variation in population density, genetic diversity, and ancestry impact fitness for an endangered species being bred for conservation. Our results advance understanding of basic life history characteristics for a cryptic species that is difficult to study in the wild and provide lessons for managing populations of vulnerable species in captive and free-ranging populations.

Threshold level or not for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol.

PubMed

Barter, P J; Sacks, F M

2001-05-01

As drugs, such as the statins, and other therapies demonstrate the ability to significantly lower levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), one issue is whether there is a lower threshold below which no further decline in coronary heart disease occurs. Those who evaluate the data from multiple trials and conclude that no significant decrease in coronary event rates occurs at or below 125 mg/dL suggest using this level as a guideline for clinical application of cholesterol-lowering therapy. On the other hand, analysis of the results of the same population and primary prevention studies concludes that no such threshold exists. The issues affected by the decision of whether to use a threshold include costs to the healthcare system for additional physician time, tests, and medication; unknown clinical events and safety related to very low LDL-C; and resource prioritization to an unestablished therapeutic approach.

Is the lionfish invasion waning? Evidence from The Bahamas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benkwitt, Cassandra E.; Albins, Mark A.; Buch, Kevin L.; Ingeman, Kurt E.; Kindinger, Tye L.; Pusack, Timothy J.; Stallings, Christopher D.; Hixon, Mark A.

2017-12-01

Indo-Pacific lionfishes ( Pterois volitans/ miles) have undergone rapid population growth and reached extremely high densities in parts of the invaded Atlantic. However, their long-term population trends in areas without active management programs are unknown. Since 2005, we have monitored lionfish abundance in the Exuma Cays of the central Bahamas on 64 reefs ranging in size from 1 to 4000 m2. Lionfish densities increased from the first sighting in 2005 through 2009, leveled off between 2010 and 2011, and then began to decrease. By 2015, densities had noticeably declined on most of these reefs, despite a lack of culling or fishing efforts in this part of The Bahamas. There was no consistent change in lionfish size structure through time. We discuss possible causes of the decline, including reductions in larval supply or survival, hurricanes, interactions with native species, and intraspecific interactions. Further studies are required to determine whether the declines will persist. In the meantime, we recommend that managers continue efforts to control invasive lionfish abundances locally.

Differential patterns of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection in relict amphibian populations following severe disease-associated declines.

PubMed

Whitfield, Steven M; Alvarado, Gilbert; Abarca, Juan; Zumbado, Hector; Zuñiga, Ibrahim; Wainwright, Mark; Kerby, Jacob

2017-09-20

Global amphibian biodiversity has declined dramatically in the past 4 decades, and many amphibian species have declined to near extinction as a result of emergence of the amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). However, persistent or recovering populations of several amphibian species have recently been rediscovered, and such populations may illustrate how amphibian species that are highly susceptible to chytridiomycosis may survive in the presence of Bd. We conducted field surveys for Bd infection in 7 species of Costa Rican amphibians (all species that have declined to near extinction but for which isolated populations persist) to characterize infection profiles in highly Bd-susceptible amphibians post-decline. We found highly variable patterns in infection, with some species showing low prevalence (~10%) and low infection intensity and others showing high infection prevalence (>80%) and either low or high infection intensity. Across sites, infection rates were negatively associated with mean annual precipitation, and infection intensity across sites was negatively associated with mean average temperatures. Our results illustrate that even the most Bd-susceptible amphibians can persist in Bd-enzootic ecosystems, and that multiple ecological or evolutionary mechanisms likely exist for host-pathogen co-existence between Bd and the most Bd-susceptible amphibian species. Continued monitoring of these populations is necessary to evaluate population trends (continuing decline, stability, or population growth). These results should inform efforts to mitigate impacts of Bd on amphibians in the field.

Metabolic syndrome but not obesity measures are risk factors for accelerated age-related glomerular filtration rate decline in the general population.

PubMed

Stefansson, Vidar T N; Schei, Jørgen; Solbu, Marit D; Jenssen, Trond G; Melsom, Toralf; Eriksen, Bjørn O

2018-05-01

Rapid age-related glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline increases the risk of end-stage renal disease, and a low GFR increases the risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease. High body mass index and the metabolic syndrome are well-known risk factors for patients with advanced chronic kidney disease, but their role in accelerating age-related GFR decline independent of cardiovascular disease, hypertension and diabetes is not adequately understood. We studied body mass index, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio and metabolic syndrome as risk factors for accelerated GFR decline in 1261 middle-aged people representative of the general population without diabetes, cardiovascular disease or kidney disease. GFR was measured as iohexol clearance at baseline and repeated after a median of 5.6 years. Metabolic syndrome was defined as fulfilling three out of five criteria, based on waist circumference, blood pressure, glucose, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides. The mean GFR decline rate was 0.95 ml/min/year. Neither the body mass index, waist circumference nor waist-hip ratio predicted statistically significant changes in age-related GFR decline, but individuals with baseline metabolic syndrome had a significant mean of 0.30 ml/min/year faster decline than individuals without metabolic syndrome in a multivariable adjusted linear regression model. This association was mainly driven by the triglyceride criterion of metabolic syndrome, which was associated with a significant 0.36 ml/min/year faster decline when analyzed separately. Results differed significantly when GFR was estimated using creatinine and/or cystatin C. Thus, metabolic syndrome, but not the body mass index, waist circumference or waist-hip ratio, is an independent risk factor for accelerated age-related GFR decline in the general population. Copyright © 2017 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Density-Dependent Growth in Invasive Lionfish (Pterois volitans)

PubMed Central

Benkwitt, Cassandra E.

2013-01-01

Direct demographic density dependence is necessary for population regulation and is a central concept in ecology, yet has not been studied in many invasive species, including any invasive marine fish. The red lionfish (Pterois volitans) is an invasive predatory marine fish that is undergoing exponential population growth throughout the tropical western Atlantic. Invasive lionfish threaten coral-reef ecosystems, but there is currently no evidence of any natural population control. Therefore, a manipulative field experiment was conducted to test for density dependence in lionfish. Juvenile lionfish densities were adjusted on small reefs and several demographic rates (growth, recruitment, immigration, and loss) were measured throughout an 8-week period. Invasive lionfish exhibited direct density dependence in individual growth rates, as lionfish grew slower at higher densities throughout the study. Individual growth in length declined linearly with increasing lionfish density, while growth in mass declined exponentially with increasing density. There was no evidence, however, for density dependence in recruitment, immigration, or loss (mortality plus emigration) of invasive lionfish. The observed density-dependent growth rates may have implications for which native species are susceptible to lionfish predation, as the size and type of prey that lionfish consume is directly related to their body size. The absence of density-dependent loss, however, contrasts with many native coral-reef fish species and suggests that for the foreseeable future manual removals may be the only effective local control of this invasion. PMID:23825604

Density-dependent growth in invasive Lionfish (Pterois volitans).

PubMed

Benkwitt, Cassandra E

2013-01-01

Direct demographic density dependence is necessary for population regulation and is a central concept in ecology, yet has not been studied in many invasive species, including any invasive marine fish. The red lionfish (Pterois volitans) is an invasive predatory marine fish that is undergoing exponential population growth throughout the tropical western Atlantic. Invasive lionfish threaten coral-reef ecosystems, but there is currently no evidence of any natural population control. Therefore, a manipulative field experiment was conducted to test for density dependence in lionfish. Juvenile lionfish densities were adjusted on small reefs and several demographic rates (growth, recruitment, immigration, and loss) were measured throughout an 8-week period. Invasive lionfish exhibited direct density dependence in individual growth rates, as lionfish grew slower at higher densities throughout the study. Individual growth in length declined linearly with increasing lionfish density, while growth in mass declined exponentially with increasing density. There was no evidence, however, for density dependence in recruitment, immigration, or loss (mortality plus emigration) of invasive lionfish. The observed density-dependent growth rates may have implications for which native species are susceptible to lionfish predation, as the size and type of prey that lionfish consume is directly related to their body size. The absence of density-dependent loss, however, contrasts with many native coral-reef fish species and suggests that for the foreseeable future manual removals may be the only effective local control of this invasion.

Population decline of the Elfin-woods Warbler Setophaga angelae in eastern Puerto Rico

Treesearch

W.J. Arendt; S.S. Qian; K. Mineard

2013-01-01

We estimated the population density of the globally threatened Elfin-woods Warbler Setophaga angelae within two forest types at different elevations in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in north-eastern Puerto Rico. Population densities ranged from 0.01 to 0.02 individuals/ha in elfin woodland and 0.06–0.26 individuals/ha in palo colorado forest in 2006, with average...

Dispersal responses override density effects on genetic diversity during post-disturbance succession

PubMed Central

Landguth, Erin L.; Bull, C. Michael; Banks, Sam C.; Gardner, Michael G.; Driscoll, Don A.

2016-01-01

Dispersal fundamentally influences spatial population dynamics but little is known about dispersal variation in landscapes where spatial heterogeneity is generated predominantly by disturbance and succession. We tested the hypothesis that habitat succession following fire inhibits dispersal, leading to declines over time in genetic diversity in the early successional gecko Nephrurus stellatus. We combined a landscape genetics field study with a spatially explicit simulation experiment to determine whether successional patterns in genetic diversity were driven by habitat-mediated dispersal or demographic effects (declines in population density leading to genetic drift). Initial increases in genetic structure following fire were likely driven by direct mortality and rapid population expansion. Subsequent habitat succession increased resistance to gene flow and decreased dispersal and genetic diversity in N. stellatus. Simulated changes in population density alone did not reproduce these results. Habitat-mediated reductions in dispersal, combined with changes in population density, were essential to drive the field-observed patterns. Our study provides a framework for combining demographic, movement and genetic data with simulations to discover the relative influence of demography and dispersal on patterns of landscape genetic structure. Our results suggest that succession can inhibit connectivity among individuals, opening new avenues for understanding how disturbance regimes influence spatial population dynamics. PMID:27009225

Multistage carcinogenesis in cell culture.

PubMed

Rubin, H

2001-01-01

Rodent fibroblasts explanted from embryos to culture undergo a period of declining growth rate in serial passages leading to crisis, followed by the appearance of variants which can multiply indefinitely. If the "immortal" cell line was established by low density passage, i.e., 3T3 cells, it has a low saturation density and is non-tumorigenic. If it was established by high density passage, it has a high saturation density and is tumorigenic. The establishment of cells goes through successive stages, including increased capacity to multiply in low serum concentration, growth to high saturation density, growth in suspension, assisted tumour formation in susceptible hosts and unassisted tumour formation. Chromosome aberrations and aneuploidy occur long before the capacity to produce tumours appears. Contrary to conventional belief, human fibroblast populations also undergo a continuous loss of capacity to multiply from the time of explantation, with only the longest surviving clone reaching the Hayflick limit. Neoplastic transformation of rodent cells is strongly favoured by maintaining them in a quiescent state at confluence for prolonged periods, which results in genetic damage to the cells. It also produces a large variety of chromosomal aberrations in human cells and extends their replicative lifespan. Individual clones are more susceptible to spontaneous transformation than their heterogeneous parental cultures. The implications of these results for tumour development in vivo are that oncogenic genetic changes may be common under stressful conditions which restrict replication, and that such changes are maximized when a rogue clone reaches a critical size that reduces stabilizing interactions with neighbouring clones. An alternative explanation, described in the Addendum, which we retrospectively favor is that the easily transformed clones are a minority in the uncloned parental population. The reason they transform before the parental population is that when they are expanded, they have more transformable cells available under the selective condition of confluence than the uncloned parental population from which they are derived.

Settlement, mortality and growth of the asari clam (Ruditapes philippinarum) for a collapsed population on a tidal flat in Nakatsu, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tezuka, Naoaki; Kamimura, Satomi; Hamaguchi, Masami; Saito, Hajime; Iwano, Hideki; Egashira, Junichi; Fukuda, Yuichi; Tawaratsumida, Takahiko; Nagamoto, Atsushi; Nakagawa, Koichi

2012-04-01

Although fluctuation and decline in bivalve populations have been reported worldwide, the underlying processes are not yet fully understood. This lack of understanding is partly due to an absence of demographic information for the early post-settlement period. This is the case particularly for annual production of the asari clam (also commonly known as the Manila clam, Ruditapes philippinarum) in Japan, which has greatly decreased in recent years. A remarkable decrease has been observed in the Nakatsu tidal flat, where current yields are less than 0.02% of the maximum yield. Possible explanations for this decline are: 1. limitation on recruitment due to overfishing; and 2. the demographic processes of growth and mortality have been altered by environmental changes, such as rise in seawater temperature or decrease in phytoplankton abundance. However, because of a lack of demographic information (e.g., the initial densities of larval settlement and mortality and growth rates post-settlement), the reasons for the decline, and the relative importance of each period in the life cycle in determining population abundance, remain unclear. Despite the decline, we observed high levels of recruitment of 0-year-class clams on the Nakatsu tidal flat in spring 2005, where more than 10,000 individuals m- 2 3-5 mm in shell length, estimated to have settled during the previous autumn, were observed. To obtain demographic information on the Nakatsu clams, we investigated two factors. First, we investigated the distribution of the 0-year-class clams and their rate of change in density as a combination of mortality, emigration and immigration on the whole tidal flat after a year. Second, we investigated the rate of change in the density and growth of clams after settlement in the center of the flat for 3 years. The rate of decrease in the density of the 0-year-class clams over the whole tidal flat after a year was greater at the stations where the initial density was higher. This suggests that density-dependent processes such as predation or competition may affect population levels. In the center of the flat, the initial density of settlement was more stable than the rate of decrease after settlement. These results suggest that the clam population on this tidal flat is probably suppressed by variable but high mortality rates after settlement, not by recruitment limitation.

Kerala: a unique model of development.

PubMed

Kannan, K P; Thankappan, K R; Ramankutty, V; Aravindan, K P

1991-12-01

This article capsules health in terms of morbidity, mortality, and maternal and child health; sex ratios, and population density in Kerala state in India from a more expanded report. Kerala state is known for its highly literate and female literate, and poor income population, but its well advanced state of demographic transition. There is a declining population growth rate, a high average marriage age, a low fertility rate, and a high degree of population mobility. One of the unique features of Kerala is the high female literacy, and the favorable position of women in decision making and a matrilineal inheritance mode. The rights of the poor and underprivileged have been upheld. The largest part of government revenue is spent on education followed by health. Traditional healing systems such the ayurveda are strong in Kerala, and Christian missionaries have contributed to a caring tradition. Morbidity is high and mortality is low because medical interventions have affected morality only. The reduction of poverty and environmentally related diseases has not been accomplished inspite of land reform, mass schooling, and general egalitarian policies. Mortality declines and a decline in birth rates have lead to a more adult and aged population, which increases the prevalence of chronic degenerative diseases. Historically, the death rate in Kerala was always lower (25/1000 in 1930 and 6.4 in 1986). The gains in mortality were made in reducing infant mortality (27/1000), which is 4 times less than India as a whole and comparable to Korea, Panama, Yugoslavia, Sri Lanka, and Colombia. Lower female mortality occurs in the 0-4 years. Life expectancy which was the same as India's in 1930 is currently 12 years higher than India's. Females have a higher expectation of life. The sex ratio in 1981 was 1032 compared to India's of 935. Kerala had almost replacement level in 1985. The crude birth rate is 21 versus 32 for India. In addition to the decline in death rates of those 5 years, the 45 year population has also experienced a decline. In the 15-24 age group, the most common cause of death is suicides (53/100,000 or 25% of all deaths) and accidents. Further study is needed to examine the determinants. 76% have hospital births. Home deliveries are related to low social class. Pregnancy risk is avoided in higher groups. Child health has been improved by the rise in marriage age, the small family norm, better women's education, greater decision making for women, and health care availability: all socioeconomic factors.

The 2005 Project Progress Report for 1987-099-00 Dworshak Kokanee Population and Entrainment Assessment (contract # 16791) is attached to project 1987-099-00, contract # 26850. [POINTER

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2008-12-18

During this contract, we continued testing underwater strobe lights to determine their effectiveness at repelling kokanee Oncorhynchus nerka away from Dworshak Dam. We tested one set of nine strobe lights flashing at a rate of 360 flashes/min in front of turbine 3 while operating at higher discharges than previously tested. The density and distribution of fish, (thought to be mostly kokanee), were monitored with a split-beam echo sounder. We then compared fish counts and densities during nights when the lights were flashing to counts and densities during adjacent nights without the lights on. On five nights between January 31 andmore » February 28, 2006, when no lights were present, fish counts near turbine 3 averaged eight fish and densities averaged 91 fish/ha. When strobe lights were turned on during five adjacent nights during the same period, mean counts dropped to four fish and densities dropped to 35 fish/ha. The decline in counts (49%) was not statistically significant (p = 0.182), but decline in densities (62%) was significant (p = 0.049). There appeared to be no tendency for fish to habituate to the lights during the night. Test results indicated that strobe lights were able to reduce fish densities by at least 50% in front of turbines operating at higher discharges, which would be sufficient to improve sportfish harvest. We also used split-beam hydroacoustics to monitor the kokanee population in Dworshak Reservoir during 2005. Estimated abundance of kokanee decreased from the 2004 population estimate. Based on hydroacoustic surveys, we estimated 3,011,626 kokanee (90% CI {+-} 15.2%) in Dworshak Reservoir, July 2005. This included 2,135,986 age-0 (90% CI {+-} 15.9%), 769,175 age-1 (90% CI {+-} 16.0%), and 107,465 age-2 (90% CI {+-} 15.2%). Poor survival of kokanee from age-1 to age-2 continued to keep age-2 densities below the management goal of 30-50 adults/ha. Entrainment sampling was conducted with fixed-site split-beam hydroacoustics a minimum of two days per month for a continuous 24 h period when dam operations permitted. The highest fish detection rates from entrainment assessments were again found during nighttime periods and lowest during the day. Fish detection rates were low during high discharges throughout the spring and summer and highest during low discharges in September and November. High discharge during drawdowns for anadromous fish flows in July and August again resulted in low detection rates and susceptibility to entrainment. Index counts of spawning kokanee in four tributary streams totaled 12,742 fish. This data fits the previously developed relationship between spawner counts and adult kokanee abundance in the reservoir.« less

Application of the stage-projection model with density-dependent fecundity to the population dynamics of Spanish ibex

USGS Publications Warehouse

Escos, J.; Alados, C.L.; Emlen, John M.

1994-01-01

A stage-class population model with density-feedback term included was used to identify the most critical parameters determining the population dynamics of female Spanish ibex (Capra pyrenaica) in southern Spain. A population in the Cazorla and Segura mountains is rapidly declining, but the eastern Sierra Nevada population is growing. The stable population density obtained using estimated values of kid and adult survival (0.49 and 0.87, respectively) and with fecundity equal to 0.367 in the absence of density feedback is 12.7 or 16.82 individuals/km2, based on a non-time-lagged and a time-lagged model, respectively. Given the maximum estimate of fecundity and an adult survival rate of 0.87, a kid survival rate of at least 0.41 is required to avoid extinction. At the minimum fecundity estimate, kid survival would have to exceed 0.52. Elasticities were used to estimate the influence of variation in life-cycle parameters on the intrinsic rate of increase. Adult survival is the most critical parameter, while fecundity and juvenile survival are less important. An increase in adult survival from 0.87 to 0.91 in the Cazorla and Segura mountains population would almost stabilize the population in the absence of stochastic variation, while the same increase in the Sierra Nevada population would yield population growth of 4–5% per annum. A reduction in adult survival to 0.83 results in population decline in both cases.

Changes in seasonal climate outpace compensatory density-dependence in eastern brook trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bassar, Ronald D.; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Nislow, Keith H.; Whiteley, Andrew R.

2016-01-01

Understanding how multiple extrinsic (density-independent) factors and intrinsic (density-dependent) mechanisms influence population dynamics has become increasingly urgent in the face of rapidly changing climates. It is particularly unclear how multiple extrinsic factors with contrasting effects among seasons are related to declines in population numbers and changes in mean body size and whether there is a strong role for density-dependence. The primary goal of this study was to identify the roles of seasonal variation in climate driven environmental direct effects (mean stream flow and temperature) versus density-dependence on population size and mean body size in eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We use data from a 10-year capture-mark-recapture study of eastern brook trout in four streams in Western Massachusetts, USA to parameterize a discrete-time population projection model. The model integrates matrix modeling techniques used to characterize discrete population structures (age, habitat type and season) with integral projection models (IPMs) that characterize demographic rates as continuous functions of organismal traits (in this case body size). Using both stochastic and deterministic analyses we show that decreases in population size are due to changes in stream flow and temperature and that these changes are larger than what can be compensated for through density-dependent responses. We also show that the declines are due mostly to increasing mean stream temperatures decreasing the survival of the youngest age class. In contrast, increases in mean body size over the same period are the result of indirect changes in density with a lesser direct role of climate-driven environmental change.

Human, Oceanographic and Habitat Drivers of Central and Western Pacific Coral Reef Fish Assemblages

PubMed Central

Williams, Ivor D.; Baum, Julia K.; Heenan, Adel; Hanson, Katharine M.; Nadon, Marc O.; Brainard, Russell E.

2015-01-01

Coral reefs around US- and US-affiliated Pacific islands and atolls span wide oceanographic gradients and levels of human impact. Here we examine the relative influence of these factors on coral reef fish biomass, using data from a consistent large-scale ecosystem monitoring program conducted by scientific divers over the course of >2,000 hours of underwater observation at 1,934 sites, across ~40 islands and atolls. Consistent with previous smaller-scale studies, our results show sharp declines in reef fish biomass at relatively low human population density, followed by more gradual declines as human population density increased further. Adjusting for other factors, the highest levels of oceanic productivity among our study locations were associated with more than double the biomass of reef fishes (including ~4 times the biomass of planktivores and piscivores) compared to islands with lowest oceanic productivity. Our results emphasize that coral reef areas do not all have equal ability to sustain large reef fish stocks, and that what is natural varies significantly amongst locations. Comparisons of biomass estimates derived from visual surveys with predicted biomass in the absence of humans indicated that total reef fish biomass was depleted by 61% to 69% at populated islands in the Mariana Archipelago; by 20% to 78% in the Main Hawaiian islands; and by 21% to 56% in American Samoa. PMID:25831196

Crossing to safety: dispersal, colonization and mate choice in evolutionarily distinct populations of Steller sea lions, Eumetopias jubatus.

PubMed

O'Corry-Crowe, Greg; Gelatt, Tom; Rea, Lorrie; Bonin, Carolina; Rehberg, Michael

2014-11-01

Population growth typically involves range expansion and establishment of new breeding sites, while the opposite occurs during declines. Although density dependence is widely invoked in theoretical studies of emigration and colonization in expanding populations, few empirical studies have documented the mechanisms. Still fewer have documented the direction and mechanisms of individual transfer in declining populations. Here, we screen large numbers of pups sampled on their natal rookeries for variation in mtDNA (n = 1106) and 16 microsatellite loci (n = 588) and show that new Steller sea lion breeding sites did not follow the typical paradigm and were instead colonized by sea lions from both a declining (Endangered) population and an increasing population. Dispersing individuals colonized rookeries in the distributional hiatus between two evolutionarily distinct (Φ¯(st) = 0.222, R¯(st) = 0.053, K = 2) metapopulations recently described as separate subspecies. Hardy-Weinberg, mixed-stock and relatedness analysis revealed levels of interbreeding on the new rookeries that exclude (i) assortative mating among eastern and western forms, and (ii) inbreeding avoidance as primary motivations for dispersal. Positive and negative density dependence is implicated in both cases of individual transfer. Migration distance limits, and conspecific attraction and performance likely influenced the sequence of rookery colonizations. This study demonstrates that resource limitation may trigger an exodus of breeding animals from declining populations, with substantial impacts on distribution and patterns of genetic variation. It also revealed that this event is rare because colonists dispersed across an evolutionary boundary, suggesting that the causative factors behind recent declines are unusual or of larger magnitude than normally occur. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A macroevolutionary explanation for energy equivalence in the scaling of body size and population density.

PubMed

Damuth, John

2007-05-01

Across a wide array of animal species, mean population densities decline with species body mass such that the rate of energy use of local populations is approximately independent of body size. This "energetic equivalence" is particularly evident when ecological population densities are plotted across several or more orders of magnitude in body mass and is supported by a considerable body of evidence. Nevertheless, interpretation of the data has remained controversial, largely because of the difficulty of explaining the origin and maintenance of such a size-abundance relationship in terms of purely ecological processes. Here I describe results of a simulation model suggesting that an extremely simple mechanism operating over evolutionary time can explain the major features of the empirical data. The model specifies only the size scaling of metabolism and a process where randomly chosen species evolve to take resource energy from other species. This process of energy exchange among particular species is distinct from a random walk of species abundances and creates a situation in which species populations using relatively low amounts of energy at any body size have an elevated extinction risk. Selective extinction of such species rapidly drives size-abundance allometry in faunas toward approximate energetic equivalence and maintains it there.

Population collapse to extinction: the catastrophic combination of parasitism and Allee effect.

PubMed

Hilker, Frank M

2010-01-01

Infectious diseases are responsible for the extinction of a number of species. In conventional epidemic models, the transition from endemic population persistence to extirpation takes place gradually. However, if host demographics exhibits a strong Allee effect (AE) (population decline at low densities), extinction can occur abruptly in a catastrophic population crash. This might explain why species suddenly disappear even when they used to persist at high endemic population levels. Mathematically, the tipping point towards population collapse is associated with a saddle-node bifurcation. The underlying mechanism is the simultaneous population size depression and the increase of the extinction threshold due to parasite pathogenicity and Allee effect. Since highly pathogenic parasites cause their own extinction but not that of their host, there can be another saddle-node bifurcation with the re-emergence of two endemic equilibria. The implications for control interventions are discussed, suggesting that effective management may be possible for ℛ(0)≫1.

Emergence flux declines disproportionately to larval density along a stream metals gradient

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmidt, Travis S.; Kraus, Johanna M.; Walters, David M.; Wanty, Richard B.

2013-01-01

Effects of contaminants on adult aquatic insect emergence are less well understood than effects on insect larvae. We compared responses of larval density and adult emergence along a metal contamination gradient. Nonlinear threshold responses were generally observed for larvae and emergers. Larval densities decreased significantly at low metal concentrations but precipitously at concentrations of metal mixtures above aquatic life criteria (Cumulative Criterion Accumulation Ratio (CCAR) ≥ 1). In contrast, adult emergence declined precipitously at low metal concentrations (CCAR ≤ 1), followed by a modest decline above this threshold. Adult emergence was a more sensitive indicator of the effect of low metals concentrations on aquatic insect communities compared to larvae, presumably because emergence is limited by a combination of larval survival and other factors limiting successful emergence. Thus effects of exposure to larvae are not manifest until later in life (during metamorphosis and emergence). This loss in emergence reduces prey subsidies to riparian communities at concentrations considered safe for aquatic life. Our results also challenge the widely held assumption that adult emergence is a constant proportion of larval densities in all streams.

Effect of conservation efforts and ecological variables on waterbird population sizes in wetlands of the Yangtze River

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yong; Jia, Qiang; Prins, Herbert H. T.; Cao, Lei; de Boer, Willem Frederik

2015-01-01

Forage quality and availability, climatic factors, and a wetland’s conservation status are expected to affect the densities of wetland birds. However, the conservation effectiveness is often poorly studied. Here, using twelve years’ census data collected from 78 wetlands in the Yangtze River floodplain, we aimed to understand the effect of these variables on five Anatidae species, and evaluate the effectiveness of the conservation measures by comparing population trends of these species among wetlands that differ in conservations status. We showed that the slope angle of a wetland and the variation thereof best explain the differences in densities of four species. We also found that the population abundances of the Anatidae species generally declined in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain over time, with a steeper decline in wetlands with a lower protection status, indicating that current conservation policies might deliver benefits for wintering Anatidae species in China, as population sizes of the species were buffered to some extent against decline in numbers in wetlands with a higher level protection status. We recommend several protection measures to stop the decline of these Anatidae species in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain, which are of great importance for the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. PMID:26601785

Effect of conservation efforts and ecological variables on waterbird population sizes in wetlands of the Yangtze River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yong; Jia, Qiang; Prins, Herbert H. T.; Cao, Lei; de Boer, Willem Frederik

2015-11-01

Forage quality and availability, climatic factors, and a wetland’s conservation status are expected to affect the densities of wetland birds. However, the conservation effectiveness is often poorly studied. Here, using twelve years’ census data collected from 78 wetlands in the Yangtze River floodplain, we aimed to understand the effect of these variables on five Anatidae species, and evaluate the effectiveness of the conservation measures by comparing population trends of these species among wetlands that differ in conservations status. We showed that the slope angle of a wetland and the variation thereof best explain the differences in densities of four species. We also found that the population abundances of the Anatidae species generally declined in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain over time, with a steeper decline in wetlands with a lower protection status, indicating that current conservation policies might deliver benefits for wintering Anatidae species in China, as population sizes of the species were buffered to some extent against decline in numbers in wetlands with a higher level protection status. We recommend several protection measures to stop the decline of these Anatidae species in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain, which are of great importance for the East Asian-Australasian Flyway.

Effect of conservation efforts and ecological variables on waterbird population sizes in wetlands of the Yangtze River.

PubMed

Zhang, Yong; Jia, Qiang; Prins, Herbert H T; Cao, Lei; de Boer, Willem Frederik

2015-11-25

Forage quality and availability, climatic factors, and a wetland's conservation status are expected to affect the densities of wetland birds. However, the conservation effectiveness is often poorly studied. Here, using twelve years' census data collected from 78 wetlands in the Yangtze River floodplain, we aimed to understand the effect of these variables on five Anatidae species, and evaluate the effectiveness of the conservation measures by comparing population trends of these species among wetlands that differ in conservations status. We showed that the slope angle of a wetland and the variation thereof best explain the differences in densities of four species. We also found that the population abundances of the Anatidae species generally declined in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain over time, with a steeper decline in wetlands with a lower protection status, indicating that current conservation policies might deliver benefits for wintering Anatidae species in China, as population sizes of the species were buffered to some extent against decline in numbers in wetlands with a higher level protection status. We recommend several protection measures to stop the decline of these Anatidae species in wetlands along the Yangtze River floodplain, which are of great importance for the East Asian-Australasian Flyway.

A shift in bloater consumption in Lake Michigan between 1993 and 2011 and its effects on Diporeia and Mysis prey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pothoven, Steven A.; Bunnell, David B.

2016-01-01

Bioenergetics modeling was used to determine individual and population consumption by Bloater Coregonus hoyi in Lake Michigan during three time periods with variable Bloater density: 1993–1996 (high), 1998–2002 (intermediate), and 2009–2011 (low). Despite declines in Bloater abundance between 1993 and 2011, our results did not show any density-dependent compensatory response in annual individual consumption, specific consumption, or proportion of maximum consumption consumed. Diporeia spp. accounted for a steadily decreasing fraction of annual consumption, and Bloater were apparently unable to eat enough Mysis diluviana or other prey to account for the loss of Diporeia in the environment. The fraction of production of both Diporeia and Mysis that was consumed by the Bloater population decreased over time so that the consumption-to-production ratio for Diporeia + Mysis was 0.74, 0.26, and 0.14 in 1993–1996, 1998–2002, and 2009–2011, respectively. Although high Bloater numbers in the 1980s to 1990s may have had an influence on populations of Diporeia, Bloater were not the main factor driving Diporeia to a nearly complete disappearance because Diporeia continued to decline when Bloater predation demands were lessening. Thus, there appears to be a decoupling in the inverse relationship between predator and prey abundance in Lake Michigan. Compared with Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus, the other dominant planktivore in the lake, Bloater have a lower specific consumption and higher gross conversion efficiency (GCE), indicating that the lake can support a higher biomass of Bloater than Alewife. However, declines in Bloater GCE since the 1970s and the absence of positive responses in consumption variables following declines in abundance suggest that productivity in Lake Michigan might not be able to support the same biomass of Bloater as in the past.

Advances in development reverse fertility declines.

PubMed

Myrskylä, Mikko; Kohler, Hans-Peter; Billari, Francesco C

2009-08-06

During the twentieth century, the global population has gone through unprecedented increases in economic and social development that coincided with substantial declines in human fertility and population growth rates. The negative association of fertility with economic and social development has therefore become one of the most solidly established and generally accepted empirical regularities in the social sciences. As a result of this close connection between development and fertility decline, more than half of the global population now lives in regions with below-replacement fertility (less than 2.1 children per woman). In many highly developed countries, the trend towards low fertility has also been deemed irreversible. Rapid population ageing, and in some cases the prospect of significant population decline, have therefore become a central socioeconomic concern and policy challenge. Here we show, using new cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of the total fertility rate and the human development index (HDI), a fundamental change in the well-established negative relationship between fertility and development as the global population entered the twenty-first century. Although development continues to promote fertility decline at low and medium HDI levels, our analyses show that at advanced HDI levels, further development can reverse the declining trend in fertility. The previously negative development-fertility relationship has become J-shaped, with the HDI being positively associated with fertility among highly developed countries. This reversal of fertility decline as a result of continued economic and social development has the potential to slow the rates of population ageing, thereby ameliorating the social and economic problems that have been associated with the emergence and persistence of very low fertility.

Temporal variability in arctic fox diet as reflected in stable-carbon isotopes; the importance of sea ice.

PubMed

Roth, James D

2002-09-01

Consumption of marine foods by terrestrial predators can lead to increased predator densities, potentially impacting their terrestrial resources. For arctic foxes (Alopex lagopus), access to such marine foods in winter depends on sea ice, which is threatened by global climate change. To quantify the importance of marine foods (seal carrion and seal pups) and document temporal variation in arctic fox diet I measured the ratios of the stable isotopes of carbon ((13)C/(12)C) in hair of arctic foxes near Cape Churchill, Manitoba, from 1994 to 1997. These hair samples were compared to the stable carbon isotope ratios of several prey species. Isotopic differences between seasonally dimorphic pelage types indicated a diet with a greater marine content in winter when sea ice provided access to seal carrion. Annual variation in arctic fox diet in both summer and winter was correlated with lemming abundance. Marine food sources became much more important in winters with low lemming populations, accounting for nearly half of the winter protein intake following a lemming decline. Potential alternative summer foods with isotopic signatures differing from lemmings included goose eggs and caribou, but these were unavailable in winter. Reliance on marine food sources in winter during periods of low lemming density demonstrates the importance of the sea ice as a potential habitat for this arctic fox population and suggests that a continued decline in sea ice extent will disrupt an important link between the marine and terrestrial ecosystems.

What caused the population decline of the Bridled White-eye on Rota, Mariana Islands?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fancy, Steven G.; Snetsinger, Thomas J.

2001-01-01

The Bridled White-eye (Zosterops conspicillatus rotensis) was Once thought to be common and widespread on Rota, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, but is now restricted to several patches of native limestone forest in and adjacent to the Sabana region. Surveys conducted in 1990 indicated that the population had declined by 87% between 1982 and 1990 for unknown reasons. The low density and restricted habitat association of the Bridled White-eye on Rota contrasts with the situation on Saipan, Tinian, Agiguan, and formerly on Guam, where the Bridled White-eye is the most common forest bird and occurs at all elevations and in all habitat types. We surveyed the entire range of the Rota Bridled White-eye in 1996 to estimate its current numbers and distribution. We also reviewed existing information on the white-eye and evaluated potential causes of its decline, including predation by Black Drongos (Dicrurus macrocercus), rats (Rattus spp.), and the brown tree snake Boiga irregularis); pesticides; avian disease; and habitat loss and alteration. We found that 94% of the extant population of 1,165 white-eyes on Rota was restricted to four patches of old-growth, native limestone forest covering only 259 ha. We believe that the population decline and current localized distribution is primarily a result of habitat changes due to agricultural development and typhoons, but the absence of white-eyes from several stands of native forest above 200 m remains unexplained. The Rota white-eye may be a different species from white-eyes found on Saipan, Tinian, Agiguan, and Guam, with different habitat preferences.

Distribution, population status and trends of kittlitz's murrelet brachyramphus brevirostris in lower cook inlet and kachemak bay, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kuletz, Kathy J.; Speckman, Suzann G.; Piatt, John F.; Labunski, E.A.

2011-01-01

Lower Cook Inlet (LCI) in south-central Alaska is unusual among the breeding areas of Kittlitz's Murrelet Brachyramphus brevirostris because of human impacts on the marine and terrestrial environments and because of the lack of tidewater glaciers. In LCI the Kittlitz's Murrelet co-exists with the more abundant Marbled Murrelet, which complicates abundance estimates because of the difficulty of species identification. We compared survey data for an area with overlapping coverage in LCI (Core area) in 1993 (June) and from 1996 to 1999 (July-early August). Within this LCI Core area, the surveys in 1996-1999 estimated ~1600 Kittlitz's Murrelets and ~17 000 Marbled Murrelets, including prorated unidentified murrelets. The Kittlitz's Murrelet population declined between 1993 and 1999 at 26% per annum (84% overall). Simultaneously, Marbled Murrelets declined by 12% per annum (56% overall), though the decline was not statistically significant. Declines were estimated conservatively because the 1993 survey was conducted in June, when both murrelet species are less abundant on the water. We also surveyed Kachemak Bay, a large embayment of LCI, during mid-summer (July) of 2005-2007 and estimated a population of 2047 Kittlitz's Murrelets (SD 1120, n = 3 years) residing primarily in the inner bay. Marbled Murrelets numbered 11 040 (SD 1306) and were found throughout the bay. On one transect set in inner Kachemak Bay, Kittlitz's Murrelet density in late summer (1-16 August) declined 7.5% per annum between 1988 and 2007 (n = 6 years), and Marbled Murrelet density increased 4.9% per annum. On two other transect sets in the inner bay, however, neither murrelet species showed a change in density between 1996 and 2007. Inner Kachemak Bay is a persistent hotspot for Kittlitz's Murrelet and may attract murrelets from LCI and beyond. We recommend monitoring murrelet populations in Kachemak Bay, although Kittlitz's Murrelets likely move between the main body of Cook Inlet and Kachemak Bay, and a complete LCI survey is needed to gauge regional population trends.

The interplay between seasonality and density: consequences for female breeding decisions in a small cyclic herbivore

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Cyclic rodent population dynamics are subjected to both intrinsic regulatory processes such as density-dependence and extrinsic environmental forcing. Among extrinsic factors, seasonal environmental variation is understood to facilitate cycles. In rodents, these processes have been studied mostly independently and their relative importance for population dynamics is poorly known. Results We performed a detailed analysis of common vole (Microtus arvalis) reproduction in a cyclic population using a spatially extensive data set over 17 years in central-western France. Environmental seasonality was the main source of explained variation in common vole reproduction. Additionally, inter-annual variation in the environment explained a smaller part of the variance in reproduction in spring and summer than in winter, whereas the effect of density was only found in autumn and winter. In particular, we detected a strong impact of plant productivity on fecundity during the breeding season, with low vegetation productivity being able to bring vole reproduction nearly to a halt. In contrast, vole reproduction during autumn and winter was mainly shaped by intrinsic factors, with only the longer and heavier females being able to reproduce. The effect of population density on reproduction was negative, mediated by direct negative effects on the proportion of breeders in autumn and winter during outbreak years and by a delayed negative effect on litter size the following year. Conclusions During the main breeding season, variability of female vole reproduction is predominantly shaped by food resources, suggesting that only highly productive environment may induce vole outbreaks. During fall and winter, variability of female vole reproduction is mainly controlled by intrinsic factors, with high population density suppressing reproduction. This suggests, in this cyclic population, that negative direct density dependence on reproduction could explain winter declines after outbreaks. PMID:24886481

The interplay between seasonality and density: consequences for female breeding decisions in a small cyclic herbivore.

PubMed

Pinot, Adrien; Gauffre, Bertrand; Bretagnolle, Vincent

2014-05-28

Cyclic rodent population dynamics are subjected to both intrinsic regulatory processes such as density-dependence and extrinsic environmental forcing. Among extrinsic factors, seasonal environmental variation is understood to facilitate cycles. In rodents, these processes have been studied mostly independently and their relative importance for population dynamics is poorly known. We performed a detailed analysis of common vole (Microtus arvalis) reproduction in a cyclic population using a spatially extensive data set over 17 years in central-western France. Environmental seasonality was the main source of explained variation in common vole reproduction. Additionally, inter-annual variation in the environment explained a smaller part of the variance in reproduction in spring and summer than in winter, whereas the effect of density was only found in autumn and winter. In particular, we detected a strong impact of plant productivity on fecundity during the breeding season, with low vegetation productivity being able to bring vole reproduction nearly to a halt. In contrast, vole reproduction during autumn and winter was mainly shaped by intrinsic factors, with only the longer and heavier females being able to reproduce. The effect of population density on reproduction was negative, mediated by direct negative effects on the proportion of breeders in autumn and winter during outbreak years and by a delayed negative effect on litter size the following year. During the main breeding season, variability of female vole reproduction is predominantly shaped by food resources, suggesting that only highly productive environment may induce vole outbreaks. During fall and winter, variability of female vole reproduction is mainly controlled by intrinsic factors, with high population density suppressing reproduction. This suggests, in this cyclic population, that negative direct density dependence on reproduction could explain winter declines after outbreaks.

Trends in snag populations in Northern Arizona mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forests, 1997-2012

Treesearch

J. L. Ganey; S. C. Vojta

2014-01-01

We monitored snag populations in drought-stressed mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests, northern Arizona, at 5-yr intervals from 1997-2012. Snag density increased from 1997-2007 in both forest types, with accelerated change due to drought-related tree mortality during the period 2002-2007. Snag density declined non-significantly from 2007-2012,...

Age- and sex-specific mortality and population structure in sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, James L.; Burdin, A.M.; Ryazanov, D.A.

2000-01-01

We used 742 beach-cast carcasses to characterize age- and sex-specific sea otter mortality during the winter of 1990-1991 at Bering Island, Russia. We also examined 363 carcasses recovered after the 1989 grounding of the T/V Exxon Valdez, to characterize age and sex composition in the living western Prince William Sound (WPWS) sea otter population. At Bering Island, mortality was male-biased (81%), and 75% were adults. The WPWS population was female-biased (59%) and most animals were subadult (79% of the males and 45% of the females). In the decade prior to 1990-1991 we found increasing sea otter densities (particularly among males), declining prey resources, and declining weights in adult male sea otters at Bering Island. Our findings suggest the increased mortality at Bering Island in 1990-1991 was a density-dependent population response. We propose male-maintained breeding territories and exclusion of juvenile females by adult females, providing a mechanism for maintaining densities in female areas below densities in male areas and for potentially moderating the effects of prey reductions on the female population. Increased adult male mortality at Bering Island in 1990-1991 likely modified the sex and age class structure there toward that observed in Prince William Sound.

Density of American black bears in New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gould, Matthew J.; Cain, James W.; Roemer, Gary W.; Gould, William R.; Liley, Stewart

2018-01-01

Considering advances in noninvasive genetic sampling and spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) models, the New Mexico Department of Game and Fish sought to update their density estimates for American black bear (Ursus americanus) populations in New Mexico, USA, to aide in setting sustainable harvest limits. We estimated black bear density in the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, and Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico, 2012–2014. We collected hair samples from black bears using hair traps and bear rubs and used a sex marker and a suite of microsatellite loci to individually genotype hair samples. We then estimated density in a SECR framework using sex, elevation, land cover type, and time to model heterogeneity in detection probability and the spatial scale over which detection probability declines. We sampled the populations using 554 hair traps and 117 bear rubs and collected 4,083 hair samples. We identified 725 (367 male, 358 female) individuals. Our density estimates varied from 16.5 bears/100 km2 (95% CI = 11.6–23.5) in the southern Sacramento Mountains to 25.7 bears/100 km2 (95% CI = 13.2–50.1) in the Sandia Mountains. Overall, detection probability at the activity center (g0) was low across all study areas and ranged from 0.00001 to 0.02. The low values of g0 were primarily a result of half of all hair samples for which genotypes were attempted failing to produce a complete genotype. We speculate that the low success we had genotyping hair samples was due to exceedingly high levels of ultraviolet (UV) radiation that degraded the DNA in the hair. Despite sampling difficulties, we were able to produce density estimates with levels of precision comparable to those estimated for black bears elsewhere in the United States.

Strong contribution of immigration to local population regulation: evidence from a migratory passerine.

PubMed

Schaub, Michael; Jakober, Hans; Stauber, Wolfgang

2013-08-01

A mechanistic understanding of the dynamics of populations requires knowledge about the variation of the underlying demographic rates and about the reasons for their variability. In geographically open populations, immigration is often necessary to prevent declines, but little is known about whether immigration can contribute to its regulation. We studied the dynamics of a Red-backed Shrike population (Lanius collurio) over 36 years in Germany with a Bayesian integrated population model. We estimated mean and temporal variability of population sizes, productivity, apparent survival, and immigration. We assessed how strongly the demographic rates were correlated with population growth to understand the demographic reasons of population change and how strongly the demographic rates were correlated with population size to identify possible density-dependent mechanisms. The shrike population varied between 35 and 74 breeding pairs but did not show a significant trend in population size over time (growth rate 1.002 +/- 0.001 [mean +/- SD]). Apparent survival of females (juveniles 0.06 +/- 0.01; adults 0.37 +/- 0.03) was lower than that of males (juveniles 0.10 +/- 0.01; adults 0.44 +/- 0.02). Immigration rates were substantial and higher in females (0.56 +/- 0.02) than in males (0.43 +/- 0.02), and average productivity was 2.76 +/- 0.14. Without immigration, the Red-backed Shrike population would have declined strongly. Immigration was the strongest driver for the number of females while local recruitment was the most important driver for the number of males. Immigration of both sexes and productivity, but not local recruitment and survival, were subject to density dependence. Density-dependent productivity was not effectively regulating the local population but may have contributed to regulate shrike populations at larger spatial scales. These findings suggest that immigration is not only an important component to prevent a geographically open population from decline, but that it can also contribute to its regulation.

Patterns of growth and body condition in sea otters from the Aleutian archipelago before and after the recent population decline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laidre, K.L.; Estes, J.A.; Tinker, M.T.; Bodkin, James L.; Monson, Daniel H.; Schneider, K.

2006-01-01

1. Growth models for body mass and length were fitted to data collected from 1842 sea otters Enhydra lutris shot or live-captured throughout south-west Alaska between 1967 and 2004. Growth curves were constructed for each of two main year groups: 1967–71 when the population was at or near carrying capacity and 1992–97 when the population was in steep decline. Analyses of data collected from animals caught during 2004, when the population density was very low, were precluded by a small sample size and consequently only examined incidentally to the main growth curves.2. Growth curves demonstrated a significant increase in body mass and body length at age in the 1990s. Asymptotic values of body mass were 12–18% higher in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s, and asymptotic values for body length were 10–11% higher between the same periods. Data collected in 2004 suggest a continued increase in body size, with nearly all data points for mass and length falling significantly above the 1990s growth curves.3. In addition to larger asymptotic values for mass and length, the rate of growth towards asymptotic values was more rapid in the 1990s than in the 1960s/70s: sea otters reached 95% of asymptotic body mass and body length 1–2 years earlier in the 1990s.4. Body condition (as measured by the log mass/log length ratio) was significantly greater in males than in females. There was also an increasing trend from the 1960s/70s through 2004 despite much year-to-year variation.5. Population age structures differed significantly between the 1960s/70s and the 1990s with the latter distribution skewed toward younger age classes (indicating an altered lxfunction) suggesting almost complete relaxation of age-dependent mortality patterns (i.e. those typical of food-limited populations).6. This study spanned a period of time over which the population status of sea otters in the Aleutian archipelago declined precipitously from levels at or near equilibrium densities at some islands in the 1960s/70s to < 5% of estimated carrying capacity by the late 1990s. The results of this study indicate an improved overall health of sea otters over the period of decline and suggest that limited nutritional resources were not the cause of the observed reduced population abundance. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the decline was caused by increased killer whale predation.

Physiological condition of bank voles (Myodes glareolus) during the increase and decline phases of the population cycle.

PubMed

Nieminen, Petteri; Huitu, Otso; Henttonen, Heikki; Finnilä, Mikko A J; Voutilainen, Liina; Itämies, Juhani; Kärjä, Vesa; Saarela, Seppo; Halonen, Toivo; Aho, Jari; Mustonen, Anne-Mari

2015-09-01

The dynamics of animal populations are greatly influenced by interactions with their natural enemies and food resources. However, quantifying the relative effects of these factors on demographic rates remains a perpetual challenge for animal population ecology. Food scarcity is assumed to limit the growth and to initiate the decline of cyclic herbivore populations, but this has not been verified with physiological health indices. We hypothesized that individuals in declining populations would exhibit signs of malnutrition-induced deterioration of physiological condition. We evaluated the association of body condition with population cycle phase in bank voles (Myodes glareolus) during the increase and decline phases of a population cycle. The bank voles had lower body masses, condition indices and absolute masses of particular organs during the decline. Simultaneously, they had lower femoral masses, mineral contents and densities. Hemoglobin and hematocrit values and several parameters known to respond to food deprivation were unaffected by the population phase. There were no signs of lymphopenia, eosinophilia, granulocytosis or monocytosis. Erythrocyte counts were higher and plasma total protein levels and tissue proportions of essential polyunsaturated fatty acids lower in the population decline. Ectoparasite load was lower and adrenal gland masses or catecholamine concentrations did not suggest higher stress levels. Food availability seems to limit the size of voles during the decline but they can adapt to the prevailing conditions without clear deleterious health effects. This highlights the importance of quantifying individual health state when evaluating the effects of complex trophic interactions on the dynamics of wild animal populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Browsing patterns of white-tailed deer following increased timber harvest and a decline in population density

Treesearch

Shawn M. Crimmins; John W. Edwards; W. Mark Ford; Patrick D. Keyser; James M. Crum

2010-01-01

We examined browsing patterns of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) on a site in the central Appalachians that experienced a substantial (>50%) reduction in deer population density and an increase in the amount of timber harvest since 2001. We sampled woody browse in and immediately adjacent to 12 clearcuts ranging in age from 0-5 years...

Changes in fish communities following recolonization of the Cedar river, Wa, USA by Pacific salmon after 103 years of local extirpation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kiffney, P.M.; Pess, G.R.; Anderson, J.H.; Faulds, P.; Burton, Kenneth; Riley, S.C.

2009-01-01

Migration barriers are a major reason for species loss and population decline of freshwater organisms. Significant efforts have been made to remove or provide passage around these barriers; however, our understanding of the ecological effects of these efforts is minimal. Installation of a fish passage facility at the Landsburg Dam, WA, USA provided migratory fish access to habitat from which they had been excluded for over 100 years. Relying on voluntary recruitment, we examined the effectiveness of this facility in restoring coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) salmon populations above the diversion, and whether reintroduction of native anadromous species affected the distribution and abundance of resident trout (O. mykiss and O. clarki). Before the ladder, late summer total salmonid (trout only) density increased with distance from the dam. This pattern was reversed after the ladder was opened, as total salmonid density (salmon {thorn} trout) approximately doubled in the three reaches closest to the dam. These changes were primarily due to the addition of coho, but small trout density also increased in lower reaches and decreased in upper reaches. A nearby source population, dispersal by adults and juveniles, low density of resident trout and high quality habitat above the barrier likely promoted rapid colonization of targeted species. Our results suggest that barrier removal creates an opportunity for migratory species to re-establish populations leading to range expansion and potentially to increased population size. ?? 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The many faces of population density.

PubMed

Mayor, Stephen J; Schaefer, James A

2005-09-01

Population density, one of the most fundamental demographic attributes, may vary systematically with spatial scale, but this scale-sensitivity is incompletely understood. We used a novel approach-based on fully censused and mapped distributions of eastern grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) dreys, beaver (Castor canadensis) lodges, and moose (Alces alces)--to explore the scale-dependence of population density and its relationship to landscape features. We identified population units at several scales, both objectively, using cluster analysis, and arbitrarily, using artificial bounds centred on high-abundance sites. Densities declined with census area. For dreys, this relationship was stronger in objective versus arbitrary population units. Drey density was inconsistently related to patch area, a relationship that was positive for all patches but negative when non-occupied patches were excluded. Drey density was negatively related to the proportion of green-space and positively related to the density of buildings or roads, relationships that were accentuated at coarser scales. Mean drey densities were more sensitive to scale when calculated as organism-weighted versus area-weighted averages. Greater understanding of these scaling effects is required to facilitate comparisons of population density across studies.

Amphibian and reptile declines over 35 years at La Selva, Costa Rica.

PubMed

Whitfield, Steven M; Bell, Kristen E; Philippi, Thomas; Sasa, Mahmood; Bolaños, Federico; Chaves, Gerardo; Savage, Jay M; Donnelly, Maureen A

2007-05-15

Amphibians stand at the forefront of a global biodiversity crisis. More than one-third of amphibian species are globally threatened, and over 120 species have likely suffered global extinction since 1980. Most alarmingly, many rapid declines and extinctions are occurring in pristine sites lacking obvious adverse effects of human activities. The causes of these "enigmatic" declines remain highly contested. Still, lack of long-term data on amphibian populations severely limits our understanding of the distribution of amphibian declines, and therefore the ultimate causes of these declines. Here, we identify a systematic community-wide decline in populations of terrestrial amphibians at La Selva Biological Station, a protected old-growth lowland rainforest in lower Central America. We use data collected over 35 years to show that population density of all species of terrestrial amphibians has declined by approximately 75% since 1970, and we show identical trends for all species of common reptiles. The trends we identify are neither consistent with recent emergence of chytridiomycosis nor the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis, two leading putative causes of enigmatic amphibian declines. Instead, our data suggest that declines are due to climate-driven reductions in the quantity of standing leaf litter, a critical microhabitat for amphibians and reptiles in this assemblage. Our results raise further concerns about the global persistence of amphibian populations by identifying widespread declines in species and habitats that are not currently recognized as susceptible to such risks.

The Herschel Virgo Cluster Survey. XIX. Physical properties of low luminosity FIR sources at z < 0.5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pappalardo, Ciro; Bizzocchi, Luca; Fritz, Jacopo; Boselli, Alessandro; Boquien, Mederic; Boissier, Samuel; Baes, Maarten; Ciesla, Laure; Bianchi, Simone; Clemens, Marcel; Viaene, Sebastien; Bendo, George J.; De Looze, Ilse; Smith, Matthew W. L.; Davies, Jonathan

2016-05-01

Context. The star formation rate is a crucial parameter for the investigation galaxy evolution. At low redshift the cosmic star formation rate density declines smoothly, and massive active galaxies become passive, reducing their star formation activity. This implies that the bulk of the star formation rate density at low redshift is mainly driven by low mass objects. Aims: We investigate the properties of a sample of low luminosity far-infrared sources selected at 250 μm. We have collected data from ultraviolet to far-infrared in order to perform a multiwavelengths analysis. The main goal is to investigate the correlation between star formation rate, stellar mass, and dust mass for a galaxy population with a wide range in dust content and stellar mass, including the low mass regime that most probably dominates the star formation rate density at low redshift. Methods: We define a main sample of ~800 sources with full spectral energy distribution coverage between 0.15 <λ< 500 μm and an extended sample with ~5000 sources in which we remove the constraints on the ultraviolet and near-infrared bands. We analyze both samples with two different spectral energy distribution fitting methods: MAGPHYS and CIGALE, which interpret a galaxy spectral energy distribution as a combination of different simple stellar population libraries and dust emission templates. Results: In the star formation rate versus stellar mass plane our samples occupy a region included between local spirals and higher redshift star forming galaxies. These galaxies represent the population that at z< 0.5 quenches their star formation activity and reduces their contribution to the cosmic star formation rate density. The subsample of galaxies with the higher masses (M∗> 3 × 1010 M⊙) do not lie on the main sequence, but show a small offset as a consequence of the decreased star formation. Low mass galaxies (M∗< 1 × 1010 M⊙) settle in the main sequence with star formation rate and stellar mass consistent with local spirals. Conclusions: Deep Herschel data allow the identification of a mixed galaxy population with galaxies still in an assembly phase or galaxies at the beginning of their passive evolution. We find that the dust luminosity is the parameter that allow us to discriminate between these two galaxy populations. The median spectral energy distribution shows that even at low star formation rate our galaxy sample has a higher mid-infrared emission than previously predicted. Herschel is an ESA space observatory with science instruments provided by a European-led principal investigator consortia and with an important participation from NASA.

Response of an arctic predator guild to collapsing lemming cycles

PubMed Central

Schmidt, Niels M.; Ims, Rolf A.; Høye, Toke T.; Gilg, Olivier; Hansen, Lars H.; Hansen, Jannik; Lund, Magnus; Fuglei, Eva; Forchhammer, Mads C.; Sittler, Benoit

2012-01-01

Alpine and arctic lemming populations appear to be highly sensitive to climate change, and when faced with warmer and shorter winters, their well-known high-amplitude population cycles may collapse. Being keystone species in tundra ecosystems, changed lemming dynamics may convey significant knock-on effects on trophically linked species. Here, we analyse long-term (1988–2010), community-wide monitoring data from two sites in high-arctic Greenland and document how a collapse in collared lemming cyclicity affects the population dynamics of the predator guild. Dramatic changes were observed in two highly specialized lemming predators: snowy owl and stoat. Following the lemming cycle collapse, snowy owl fledgling production declined by 98 per cent, and there was indication of a severe population decline of stoats at one site. The less specialized long-tailed skua and the generalist arctic fox were more loosely coupled to the lemming dynamics. Still, the lemming collapse had noticeable effects on their reproductive performance. Predator responses differed somewhat between sites in all species and could arise from site-specific differences in lemming dynamics, intra-guild interactions or subsidies from other resources. Nevertheless, population extinctions and community restructuring of this arctic endemic predator guild are likely if the lemming dynamics are maintained at the current non-cyclic, low-density state. PMID:22977153

Response of an arctic predator guild to collapsing lemming cycles.

PubMed

Schmidt, Niels M; Ims, Rolf A; Høye, Toke T; Gilg, Olivier; Hansen, Lars H; Hansen, Jannik; Lund, Magnus; Fuglei, Eva; Forchhammer, Mads C; Sittler, Benoit

2012-11-07

Alpine and arctic lemming populations appear to be highly sensitive to climate change, and when faced with warmer and shorter winters, their well-known high-amplitude population cycles may collapse. Being keystone species in tundra ecosystems, changed lemming dynamics may convey significant knock-on effects on trophically linked species. Here, we analyse long-term (1988-2010), community-wide monitoring data from two sites in high-arctic Greenland and document how a collapse in collared lemming cyclicity affects the population dynamics of the predator guild. Dramatic changes were observed in two highly specialized lemming predators: snowy owl and stoat. Following the lemming cycle collapse, snowy owl fledgling production declined by 98 per cent, and there was indication of a severe population decline of stoats at one site. The less specialized long-tailed skua and the generalist arctic fox were more loosely coupled to the lemming dynamics. Still, the lemming collapse had noticeable effects on their reproductive performance. Predator responses differed somewhat between sites in all species and could arise from site-specific differences in lemming dynamics, intra-guild interactions or subsidies from other resources. Nevertheless, population extinctions and community restructuring of this arctic endemic predator guild are likely if the lemming dynamics are maintained at the current non-cyclic, low-density state.

Density-dependent natural selection and trade-offs in life history traits.

PubMed

Mueller, L D; Guo, P Z; Ayala, F J

1991-07-26

Theories of density-dependent natural selection state that at extreme population densities evolution produces alternative life histories due to trade-offs. The trade-offs are presumed to arise because those genotypes with highest fitness at high population densities will not also have high fitness at low density and vice-versa. These predictions were tested by taking samples from six populations of Drosophila melanogaster kept at low population densities (r-populations) for nearly 200 generations and placing them in crowded cultures (K-populations). After 25 generations in the crowded cultures, the derived K-populations showed growth rate and productivity that at high densities were elevated relative to the controls, but at low density were depressed.

Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.

PubMed

Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M

2013-10-01

When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Effects of Cougar Predation and Nutrition on Mule Deer Population Declines in the Intermountain Province of the Columbia Basin, 2001-2002 Annual Report.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wielgus, Robert B.; Shipley, Lisa

2002-07-01

Construction of the Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph dams has resulted in inundation and loss of 29,125 total habitat units for mule deer and irrigation agriculture in many parts the Intermountain Province (IM) of the Columbia Basin. Mule deer in the Shrub-Steppe are ranked high priority target species for mitigation and management and are declining in most portions of the subbasins of the IM. Reasons for the decline are unknown but believed to be related to habitat changes resulting from dams and irrigation agriculture. White-tailed deer are not ranked as target species and are believed to be increasing throughout themore » basin because of habitat changes brought about by the dams and irrigation agriculture. Recent research (1997-2000) in the NE IM and adjacent Canadian portions of the Columbia Basin (conducted by this author and funded by the Columbia Basin Fish & Wildlife Compensation Program B.C.), suggest that the increasing white-tailed deer populations (because of dams and irrigation agriculture) are resulting in increased predation by cougars on mule deer (apparent competition or alternate prey hypothesis). The apparent competition hypothesis predicts that as alternate prey (white-tailed deer) densities increase, so do densities of predators, resulting in increased incidental predation on sympatric native prey (mule deer). Apparent competition can result in population declines and even extirpation of native prey in some cases. Such a phenomenon may account for declines of mule deer in the IM and throughout arid and semi-arid West where irrigation agriculture is practiced. We will test the apparent competition hypothesis by conducting a controlled, replicated ''press'' experiment in at least 2 treatment and 2 control areas of the IM subbasins by reducing densities of white-tailed deer and observing any changes in cougar predation on mule deer. Deer densities will be monitored by WADFW personnel using annual aerial surveys and/or other trend indices. Predation rates and population growth rates of deer will be determined using radio telemetry. Changes in cougar functional (kills/unit time), aggregative (cougars/unit area), numerical (offspring/cougar), and total (predation rate) responses on deer will also be monitored using radio telemetry. The experiment will be conducted and completed over a period of 5 years. Results will be used to determine the cause and try to halt the mule deer population declines. Results will also guide deer mitigation and management in the IM and throughout the North American West.« less

Effects of Cougar Predation and Nutrition on Mule Deer Population Declines in the IM Province of the Columbia Basin, Annual Report 2002-2003.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wielgus, Robert; Shipley, Lisa; Myers, Woodrow

2003-09-01

Construction of the Grand Coulee and Chief Joseph dams has resulted in inundation and loss of 29,125 total habitat units for mule deer and irrigation agriculture in many parts the Intermountain Province (IM) of the Columbia Basin. Mule deer in the Shrub-Steppe are ranked high priority target species for mitigation and management and are declining in most portions of the sub basins of the IM. Reasons for the decline are unknown but believed to be related to habitat changes resulting from dams and irrigation agriculture. White-tailed deer are believed to be increasing throughout the basin because of habitat changes broughtmore » about by the dams and irrigation agriculture. Recent research (1997-2000) in the NE IM and adjacent Canadian portions of the Columbia Basin (conducted by this author and funded by the Columbia Basin Fish & Wildlife Compensation Program B.C.), suggest that the increasing white-tailed deer populations (because of dams and irrigation agriculture) are resulting in increased predation by cougars on mule deer (apparent competition or alternate prey hypothesis). The apparent competition hypothesis predicts that as alternate prey (white-tailed deer) densities increase, so do densities of predators, resulting in increased incidental predation on sympatric native prey (mule deer). Apparent competition can result in population declines and even extirpation of native prey in some cases. Such a phenomenon may account for declines of mule deer in the IM and throughout arid and semi-arid West where irrigation agriculture is practiced. We will test the apparent competition hypothesis by conducting a controlled, replicated 'press' experiment in at least 2 treatment and 2 control areas of the IM sub basins by reducing densities of white-tailed deer and observing any changes in cougar predation on mule deer. Deer densities will be monitored by WADFW personnel using annual aerial surveys and/or other trend indices. Predation rates and population growth rates of deer will be determined using radio telemetry. Changes in cougar functional (kills/unit time), aggregative (cougars/unit area), numerical (offspring/cougar), and total (predation rate) responses on deer will also be monitored using radio telemetry. The experiment will be conducted and completed over a period of 5 years. Results will be used to determine the cause and try to halt the mule deer population declines. Results will also guide deer mitigation and management in the IM and throughout the North American West.« less

Photographic Identification of Humpback and Blue Whales off the US West Coast: Results and Updated Abundance Estimates from 2008 Field Season

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-12-01

1990s and only being present part of the time off the US West Coast lowering the average density present (but not reflecting an actual population ...the average density present (but not reflecting an actual population decline). 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF...due to our sample representing a decreasing proportion of this growing population leading to greater variation and possibly greater susceptibility to

Do observed levels of exploitation from consumption-oriented and trophy-oriented fisheries reduce relative stock densities of Muskellunge below target levels in northern Wisconsin?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Faust, Matthew D.; Hansen, Michael J.

2017-01-01

Muskellunge anglers desire to catch large fish, and release rates by recreational anglers often approach 100% (Isermann et al. 2011). Muskellunge are also a culturally significant fish for Chippewa tribes and support a subsistence spearing fishery in Wisconsin’s Ceded Territory (Erickson 2007). Although Muskellunge populations within the state’s Ceded Territory are exposed to both angling and spearing fishery exploitation, Faust and Hansen (2016) suggested that under certain conditions (e.g., high minimum length limits (MLL) and low spearing exploitation) Muskellunge fisheries with disparate motivations could coexist (i.e., sufficient numbers of large individuals remained despite harvest from consumptive fishery), but noted that larger declines in trophy Muskellunge abundance were predicted at lower MLLs (e.g., 102-cm). Fisheries managers with the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) wished to further understand how specific relative stock densities (RSD), used by the WDNR to define and monitor trophy Muskellunge fisheries, are reduced at exploitation rates commonly experienced by populations in northern Wisconsin. Similarly, understanding how trophy Muskellunge abundance may have declined under the previous statewide MLL (i.e., 86-cm) at these levels of exploitation was also desired. Thus, our objectives were to 1) determine if observed levels of angling and spearing exploitation reduced predicted RSD indices below thresholds used by the WDNR to define trophy Muskellunge fisheries for three typical Muskellunge growth potentials in northern Wisconsin across a variety of MLLs; and 2) quantify how numbers of trophy Muskellunge declined under an 86-cm MLL at observed levels of exploitation.

Declining Marbled Murrelet density, but not productivity, in the San Juan Islands, Washington, USA

Treesearch

Teresa J. Lorenz; Martin G. Raphael

2018-01-01

The Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) is federally threatened in part of its range in western North America. Information on density and productivity is important for managing populations. Over an 18-yr period, we monitored murrelet density and productivity ratios during the breeding season along 170 km of shoreline of the San Juan Islands...

Fraser River sockeye salmon productivity and climate: A re-analysis that avoids an undesirable property of Ricker’s curve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKinnell, Skip

2008-05-01

In descending order of importance, artificial spawning channels, density-dependent mortality, carryover mortality, and climate have significant influences on the average productivity of Fraser River sockeye salmon ( Oncorhynchus nerka). When factors that are known or have been hypothesized to affect Fraser River sockeye salmon productivity are included in a single analytical framework, no significant change in average productivity occurred in 1976/1977, however, beginning in 1989 average productivity was significantly lower. In the one lake (Chilko) in the Fraser River basin where pre-smolt survival can be distinguished from post-smolt survival, this decline arose from freshwater causes. After accounting for other factors that have a greater influence, Fraser River sockeye salmon productivity tends to be slightly lower in years when the intensity of the Aleutian low pressure region is stormier in winter, although the effect is not strongly expressed in any particular population. A footnote to the study was the realization that estimates of Ricker’s density-dependent mortality parameter, β, are influenced by both the numerical properties of the equation and by population biology; density-dependent and density-independent influences on the estimates of the parameter are confounded.

Climate and ecosystem linkages explain widespread declines in North American Atlantic salmon populations.

PubMed

Mills, Katherine E; Pershing, Andrew J; Sheehan, Timothy F; Mountain, David

2013-10-01

North American Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations experienced substantial declines in the early 1990s, and many populations have persisted at low abundances in recent years. Abundance and productivity declined in a coherent manner across major regions of North America, and this coherence points toward a potential shift in marine survivorship, rather than local, river-specific factors. The major declines in Atlantic salmon populations occurred against a backdrop of physical and biological shifts in Northwest Atlantic ecosystems. Analyses of changes in climate, physical, and lower trophic level biological factors provide substantial evidence that climate conditions directly and indirectly influence the abundance and productivity of North American Atlantic salmon populations. A major decline in salmon abundance after 1990 was preceded by a series of changes across multiple levels of the ecosystem, and a subsequent population change in 1997, primarily related to salmon productivity, followed an unusually low NAO event. Pairwise correlations further demonstrate that climate and physical conditions are associated with changes in plankton communities and prey availability, which are ultimately linked to Atlantic salmon populations. Results suggest that poor trophic conditions, likely due to climate-driven environmental factors, and warmer ocean temperatures throughout their marine habitat area are constraining the productivity and recovery of North American Atlantic salmon populations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Amphibian and reptile declines over 35 years at La Selva, Costa Rica

PubMed Central

Whitfield, Steven M.; Bell, Kristen E.; Philippi, Thomas; Sasa, Mahmood; Bolaños, Federico; Chaves, Gerardo; Savage, Jay M.; Donnelly, Maureen A.

2007-01-01

Amphibians stand at the forefront of a global biodiversity crisis. More than one-third of amphibian species are globally threatened, and over 120 species have likely suffered global extinction since 1980. Most alarmingly, many rapid declines and extinctions are occurring in pristine sites lacking obvious adverse effects of human activities. The causes of these “enigmatic” declines remain highly contested. Still, lack of long-term data on amphibian populations severely limits our understanding of the distribution of amphibian declines, and therefore the ultimate causes of these declines. Here, we identify a systematic community-wide decline in populations of terrestrial amphibians at La Selva Biological Station, a protected old-growth lowland rainforest in lower Central America. We use data collected over 35 years to show that population density of all species of terrestrial amphibians has declined by ≈75% since 1970, and we show identical trends for all species of common reptiles. The trends we identify are neither consistent with recent emergence of chytridiomycosis nor the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis, two leading putative causes of enigmatic amphibian declines. Instead, our data suggest that declines are due to climate-driven reductions in the quantity of standing leaf litter, a critical microhabitat for amphibians and reptiles in this assemblage. Our results raise further concerns about the global persistence of amphibian populations by identifying widespread declines in species and habitats that are not currently recognized as susceptible to such risks. PMID:17449638

Negative relationships between population density and metabolic rates are not general.

PubMed

Yashchenko, Varvara; Fossen, Erlend Ignacio; Kielland, Øystein Nordeide; Einum, Sigurd

2016-07-01

Population density has recently been suggested to be an important factor influencing metabolic rates and to represent an important 'third axis' explaining variation beyond that explained by body mass and temperature. In situations where population density influences food consumption, the immediate effect on metabolism acting through specific dynamic action (SDA), and downregulation due to fasting over longer periods, is well understood. However, according to a recent review, previous studies suggest a more general effect of population density per se, even in the absence of such effects. It has been hypothesized that this results from animals performing anticipatory responses (i.e. reduced activity) to expected declines in food availability. Here, we test the generality of this finding by measuring density effects on metabolic rates in 10 clones from two different species of the zooplankton Daphnia (Daphnia pulex Leydig and D. magna Straus). Using fluorescence-based respirometry, we obtain high-precision measures of metabolism. We also identify additional studies on this topic that were not included in the previous review, compare the results and evaluate the potential for measurement bias in all previous studies. We demonstrate significant variation in mass-specific metabolism among clones within both species. However, we find no evidence for a negative relationship between population density and mass-specific metabolism. The previously reported pattern also disappeared when we extended the set of studies analysed. We discuss potential reasons for the discrepancy among studies, including two main sources of potential bias (microbial respiration and declining oxygen consumption due to reduced oxygen availability). Only one of the previous studies gives sufficient information to conclude the absence of such biases, and consistent with our results, no effect of density on metabolism was found. We conclude that population density per se does not have a general effect on mass-specific metabolic rate. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Does White Clover (Trifolium repens) Abundance in Temperate Pastures Determine Sitona obsoletus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Larval Populations?

PubMed

McNeill, Mark R; van Koten, Chikako; Cave, Vanessa M; Chapman, David; Hodgson, Hamish

2016-01-01

To determine if host plant abundance determined the size of clover root weevil (CRW) Sitona obsoletus larval populations, a study was conducted over 4 years in plots sown in ryegrass ( Lolium perenne ) (cv. Nui) sown at either 6 or 30 kg/ha and white clover ( Trifolium repens ) sown at a uniform rate of 8 kg/ha. This provided a range of % white clover content to investigate CRW population establishment and impacts on white clover survival. Larval sampling was carried out in spring (October) when larval densities are near their spring peak at Lincoln (Canterbury, New Zealand) with % clover measured in autumn (April) and spring (September) of each year. Overall, mean larval densities measured in spring 2012-2015 were 310, 38, 59, and 31 larvae m -2 , respectively. There was a significant decline in larval populations between 2012 and 2013, but spring populations were relatively uniform thereafter. The mean % white clover measured in autumns of 2012 to 2015 was 17, 10, 3, and 11%, respectively. In comparison, mean spring % white clover from 2012 to 2015, averaged c. 5% each year. Analysis relating spring (October) larval populations to % white clover measured in each plot in autumn (April) found the 2012 larval population to be statistically significantly larger in the ryegrass 6 kg/ha plots than 30 kg/ha plots. Thereafter, sowing rate had no significant effect on larval populations. From 2013 to 2015, spring larval populations had a negative relationship with the previous autumn % white clover with the relationship highly significant for the 2014 data. When CRW larval populations in spring 2013 to 2015 were predicted from the 2013 to 2015 autumn % white clover, respectively, based on their positive relationship in 2012, the predicted densities were substantially larger than those observed. Conversely, when 2015 spring larval data and % clover was regressed against 2012-2014 larval populations, observed densities tended to be higher than predicted, but the numbers came closer to predicted for the 2013 and 2014 populations. These differences are attributed to a CRW population decline that was not accounted by % white clover changes, the CRW decline most likely due to biological control by the Braconid endoparasitoid Microctonus aethiopoides , which showed incremental increases in parasitism between 2012 and 2015, which in 2015 averaged 93%.

Occupancy and abundance of the endangered yellowcheek darter in Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Magoulick, Daniel D.; Lynch, Dustin T.

2015-01-01

The Yellowcheek Darter (Etheostoma moorei) is a rare fish endemic to the Little Red River watershed in the Boston Mountains of northern Arkansas. Remaining populations of this species are geographically isolated and declining, and the species was listed in 2011 as federally endangered. Populations have declined, in part, due to intense seasonal stream drying and inundation of lower reaches by a reservoir. We used a kick seine sampling approach to examine distribution and abundance of Yellowcheek Darter populations in the Middle Fork and South Fork Little Red River. We used presence data to estimate occupancy rates and detection probability and examined relationships between Yellowcheek Darter density and environmental variables. The species was found at five Middle Fork and South Fork sites where it had previously been present in 2003–2004. Occupancy rates were >0.6 but with wide 95% CI, and where the darters occurred, densities were typical of other Ozark darters but highly variable. Detection probability and density were positively related to current velocity. Given that stream drying has become more extreme over the past 30 years and anthropogenic threats have increased, regular monitoring and active management may be required to reduce extinction risk of Yellowcheek Darter populations.

Cetacean Density Estimation from Novel Acoustic Datasets by Acoustic Propagation Modeling

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

hydrophone, to estimate the population density of false killer whales (Pseudorca crassidens) off of the Kona coast of the Island of Hawai’i... killer whale , suffers from interaction with the fisheries industry and its population has been reported to have declined in the past 20 years. Studies...of abundance estimate of false killer whales in Hawai’i through mark recapture methods will provide comparable results to the ones obtained by this

NoSOCS in SDSS - VI. The environmental dependence of AGN in clusters and field in the local Universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopes, P. A. A.; Ribeiro, A. L. B.; Rembold, S. B.

2017-11-01

We investigated the variation in the fraction of optical active galactic nuclei (AGNs) hosts with stellar mass, as well as their local and global environments. Our sample is composed of cluster members and field galaxies at z ≤ 0.1 and we consider only strong AGN. We find a strong variation in the AGN fraction (FAGN) with stellar mass. The field population comprises a higher AGN fraction compared to the global cluster population, especially for objects with log M* > 10.6. Hence, we restricted our analysis to more massive objects. We detected a smooth variation in the FAGN with local stellar mass density for cluster objects, reaching a plateau in the field environment. As a function of cluster-centric distance we verify that FAGN is roughly constant for R > R200, but show a steep decline inwards. We have also verified the dependence of the AGN population on cluster velocity dispersion, finding a constant behaviour for low mass systems (σP ≲ 650-700 km s-1). However, there is a strong decline in FAGN for higher mass clusters (>700 km s-1). When comparing the FAGN in clusters with or without substructure, we only find different results for objects at large radii (R > R200), in the sense that clusters with substructure present some excess in the AGN fraction. Finally, we have found that the phase-space distribution of AGN cluster members is significantly different than other populations. Due to the environmental dependence of FAGN and their phase-space distribution, we interpret AGN to be the result of galaxy interactions, favoured in environments where the relative velocities are low, typical of the field, low mass groups or cluster outskirts.

Recent increases in the large glacial-relict calanoid Limnocalanus macrurus in Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barbiero, R.P.; Bunnell, D.B.; Rockwell, D.C.; Tuchman, M.L.

2009-01-01

Since 2004, population density of the large hypolimnetic calanoid Limnocalanus macrurus Sars. has increased dramatically in Lake Michigan. The average summer biomass of this species between 2004 and 2006 was roughly three times that of the period 1984–2003, and at levels unprecedented in our 22-year dataset, making L. macrurus the dominant zooplankter in the lake in terms of biomass. These increases have been accentuated by coincident population declines of the main daphnid, Daphnia mendotae, in the lake with the result that in 2006, L. macrurus accounted for 75% and 50% of the large (> 0.9 mm) crustacean biomass in the northern and southern basins of Lake Michigan, respectively. The increases in L. macrurus populations have closely coincided with equally dramatic increases in summer water clarity. Recent extinction coefficients are among the lowest recorded for the lake, and deepening light penetration has permitted increases in the size of the deep chlorophyll layer. In addition, planktivorous fish populations have declined coincidently with the increases in L. macrurus. It seems likely that an increase in sub-epilimnetic production has resulted in increased food resources for the deep-living L. macrurus, while low planktivore abundances have reduced predation loss, permitting L. macrurus to respond to these increases in sub-epilimnetic production.

Low functional redundancy among mammalian browsers in regulating an encroaching shrub (Solanum campylacanthum) in African savannah

PubMed Central

Pringle, Robert M.; Goheen, Jacob R.; Palmer, Todd M.; Charles, Grace K.; DeFranco, Elyse; Hohbein, Rhianna; Ford, Adam T.; Tarnita, Corina E.

2014-01-01

Large herbivorous mammals play an important role in structuring African savannahs and are undergoing widespread population declines and local extinctions, with the largest species being the most vulnerable. The impact of these declines on key ecological processes hinges on the degree of functional redundancy within large-herbivore assemblages, a subject that has received little study. We experimentally quantified the effects of three browser species (elephant, impala and dik-dik) on individual- and population-level attributes of Solanum campylacanthum (Solanum incanum sensu lato), an encroaching woody shrub, using semi-permeable exclosures that selectively removed different-sized herbivores. After nearly 5 years, shrub abundance was lowest where all browser species were present and increased with each successive species deletion. Different browsers ate the same plant species in different ways, thereby exerting distinct suites of direct and indirect effects on plant performance and density. Not all of these effects were negative: elephants and impala also dispersed viable seeds and indirectly reduced seed predation by rodents and insects. We integrated these diffuse positive effects with the direct negative effects of folivory using a simple population model, which reinforced the conclusion that different browsers have complementary net effects on plant populations, and further suggested that under some conditions, these net effects may even differ in direction. PMID:24789900

Nocturnal field use by fall migrating American woodcock in the Delta of Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krementz, David G.; Crossett, Richard; Lehnen, Sarah E.

2014-01-01

The American woodcock (Scolopax minor) population has declined since the late 1960s across its range and is now considered a species of special concern. Research on woodcock habitat use during migration and migratory routes through the Central Flyway has been limited. We assessed woodcock phenology, estimated density, and nocturnal habitat use in fields on public lands in the lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley portion of Arkansas during November and December of 2010 and 2011. We used all-terrain vehicles to survey woodcock along transects in 67 fields of 8 field types. We analyzed data using hierarchical distance sampling. We detected woodcock from the first week in November through the third week in December but in low numbers. We did not detect woodcock in millet or rice fields, whereas woodcock had the highest estimated densities in unharvested soybeans. All other crop type-post-harvest management combinations had low woodcock densities. We did not detect woodcock in fields <8 ha or >40 ha. Woodcock in the lower Mississippi Alluvial Valley may benefit from management for unharvested soybean fields of moderate size (approx. 8-40ha).

Patterns of Senescence in Human Cardiovascular Fitness: VO2max in Subsistence and Industrialized Populations

PubMed Central

Pisor, Anne C.; Gurven, Michael; Blackwell, Aaron D.; Kaplan, Hillard; Yetish, Gandhi

2014-01-01

Objectives This study explores whether cardiovascular fitness levels and senescent decline are similar in the Tsimane of Bolivia and Canadians, as well as other subsistence and industrialized populations. Among Tsimane, we examine whether morbidity predicts lower levels and faster decline of cardiovascular fitness, or whether their lifestyle (e.g., high physical activity) promotes high levels and slow decline. Alternatively, high activity levels and morbidity might counterbalance such that Tsimane fitness levels and decline are similar to those in industrialized populations. Methods Maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) was estimated using a step test heart rate method for 701 participants. We compared these estimates to the Canadian Health Measures Survey and previous studies in industrialized and subsistence populations. We evaluated whether health indicators and proxies for market integration were associated with VO2max levels and rate of decline for the Tsimane. Results The Tsimane have significantly higher levels of VO2max and slower rates of decline than Canadians; initial evidence suggests differences in VO2max levels between other subsistence and industrialized populations. Low hemoglobin predicts low VO2max for Tsimane women while helminth infection predicts high VO2max for Tsimane men, though results might be specific to the VO2max scaling parameter used. No variables tested interact with age to moderate decline. Conclusions The Tsimane demonstrate higher levels of cardiovascular fitness than industrialized populations, but levels similar to other subsistence populations. The high VO2max of Tsimane is consistent with their high physical activity and few indicators of cardiovascular disease, measured in previous studies. PMID:24022886

Evaluating the potential for stock size to limit recruitment in largemouth bass

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Michael S.; Rogers, Mark W.; Catalano, Mathew J.; Gwinn, Daniel G.; Walsh, Stephen J.

2011-01-01

Compensatory changes in juvenile survival allow fish stocks to maintain relatively constant recruitment across a wide range of stock sizes (and levels of fishing), but few studies have experimentally explored recruitment compensation in fish populations. We evaluated the potential for recruitment compensation in largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides by stocking six 0.4-ha hatchery ponds with adult densities ranging from 6 to 40 fish over 2 years. Ponds were drained in October each year, and the age-0 fish densities were used as a measure of recruitment. We found no relationship between stock abundance and recruitment; ponds with low adult densities produced nearly as many recruits as the higher-density ponds in some cases. Both prey abundance and the growth of age-0 largemouth bass declined with age-0 fish density. Recruit abundance was highly variable both within and among the adult density groups, and thus we were unable to identify a clear stock–recruit relationship for largemouth bass. Our results indicate that reducing the number of effective spawners via angling practices would not reduce recruitment over a relatively large range in stock size.

Estimating the density of honeybee colonies across their natural range to fill the gap in pollinator decline censuses.

PubMed

Jaffé, Rodolfo; Dietemann, Vincent; Allsopp, Mike H; Costa, Cecilia; Crewe, Robin M; Dall'olio, Raffaele; DE LA Rúa, Pilar; El-Niweiri, Mogbel A A; Fries, Ingemar; Kezic, Nikola; Meusel, Michael S; Paxton, Robert J; Shaibi, Taher; Stolle, Eckart; Moritz, Robin F A

2010-04-01

Although pollinator declines are a global biodiversity threat, the demography of the western honeybee (Apis mellifera) has not been considered by conservationists because it is biased by the activity of beekeepers. To fill this gap in pollinator decline censuses and to provide a broad picture of the current status of honeybees across their natural range, we used microsatellite genetic markers to estimate colony densities and genetic diversity at different locations in Europe, Africa, and central Asia that had different patterns of land use. Genetic diversity and colony densities were highest in South Africa and lowest in Northern Europe and were correlated with mean annual temperature. Confounding factors not related to climate, however, are also likely to influence genetic diversity and colony densities in honeybee populations. Land use showed a significantly negative influence over genetic diversity and the density of honeybee colonies over all sampling locations. In Europe honeybees sampled in nature reserves had genetic diversity and colony densities similar to those sampled in agricultural landscapes, which suggests that the former are not wild but may have come from managed hives. Other results also support this idea: putative wild bees were rare in our European samples, and the mean estimated density of honeybee colonies on the continent closely resembled the reported mean number of managed hives. Current densities of European honeybee populations are in the same range as those found in the adverse climatic conditions of the Kalahari and Saharan deserts, which suggests that beekeeping activities do not compensate for the loss of wild colonies. Our findings highlight the importance of reconsidering the conservation status of honeybees in Europe and of regarding beekeeping not only as a profitable business for producing honey, but also as an essential component of biodiversity conservation.

Fundamental population-productivity relationships can be modified through density-dependent feedbacks of life-history evolution.

PubMed

Kuparinen, Anna; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

2014-12-01

The evolution of life histories over contemporary time scales will almost certainly affect population demography. One important pathway for such eco-evolutionary interactions is the density-dependent regulation of population dynamics. Here, we investigate how fisheries-induced evolution (FIE) might alter density-dependent population-productivity relationships. To this end, we simulate the eco-evolutionary dynamics of an Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) population under fishing, followed by a period of recovery in the absence of fishing. FIE is associated with increases in juvenile production, the ratio of juveniles to mature population biomass, and the ratio of the mature population biomass relative to the total population biomass. In contrast, net reproductive rate (R 0 ) and per capita population growth rate (r) decline concomitantly with evolution. Our findings suggest that FIE can substantially modify the fundamental population-productivity relationships that underlie density-dependent population regulation and that form the primary population-dynamical basis for fisheries stock-assessment projections. From a conservation and fisheries-rebuilding perspective, we find that FIE reduces R 0 and r, the two fundamental correlates of population recovery ability and inversely extinction probability.

The role of Allee effects in gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), invasions

Treesearch

Patrick C. Tobin; Christelle Robinet; Derek M. Johnson; Stefanie L. Whitmire; Ottar N. Bjornstad; Andrew M. Liebhold

2009-01-01

Allee effects have been applied historically in efforts to understand the low-density population dynamics of rare and endangered species. Many biological invasions likewise experience the phenomenon of decreasing population growth rates at low population densities because most founding populations of introduced nonnative species occur at low densities. In range...

Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming

DOE PAGES

Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.; ...

2017-02-08

Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively. Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers. Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forestmore » and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine. Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.« less

Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.

Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively. Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers. Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forestmore » and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine. Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.« less

Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conlisk, Erin; Castanha, Cristina; Germino, Matthew J.; Veblen, Thomas T; Smith, Jeremy M.; Kueppers, Lara M.

2017-01-01

Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively.Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers.Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forest and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine.Synthesis. Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.

Effects of urban sprawl on obesity.

PubMed

Zhao, Zhenxiang; Kaestner, Robert

2010-12-01

In this paper, we examine the effect of changes in population density-urban sprawl-between 1970 and 2000 on BMI and obesity of residents in metropolitan areas in the U.S. We address the possible endogeneity of population density by using a two-step instrumental variables approach. We exploit the plausibly exogenous variation in population density caused by the expansion of the U.S. Interstate Highway System, which largely followed the original 1947 plan for the Interstate Highway System. We find a negative association between population density and obesity, and estimates are robust across a wide range of specifications. Estimates indicate that if the average metropolitan area had not experienced the decline in the proportion of population living in dense areas over the last 30 years, the rate of obesity would have been reduced by approximately 13%. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Toxic materials, fishing, and environmental variation: simulated effects on striped bass population trends

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goodyear, C.P.

1985-01-01

Decreased survival of larval striped bass Morone saxatilis resulting from toxic chemicals in the environment and decreased survival of adults caused by fishing both are suspected as agents contributing to the decline in the Chesapeake Bay stock since the mid-1970s. The relative power of each type of mortality to cause population declines was evaluated with simulation techniques. Equivalent levels of added mortality induced qualitatively identical and quantitatively similar trends in population simulations for all conditions examined except if strong density-dependent mortality preceded the contaminant toxicity. In this case the contaminant effect caused a greater reduction in yield, but the populationmore » did not tend toward extinction. The results indicate that the observed downward trend in the Chesapeake Bay population can be halted or reversed by a reduction in fishing mortality, even if contaminant toxicity is the proximate cause for the decline. 28 references, 1 figure, 1 table.« less

Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline.

PubMed

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F; Mcdonald, Trent L; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E; Richardson, Evan S; Regehr, Eric V; Douglas, David C; Durner, George M; Atwood, Todd; Amstrup, Steven C

2015-04-01

In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark-recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25-50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606-1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

Energetic and ecological constraints on population density of reef fishes.

PubMed

Barneche, D R; Kulbicki, M; Floeter, S R; Friedlander, A M; Allen, A P

2016-01-27

Population ecology has classically focused on pairwise species interactions, hindering the description of general patterns and processes of population abundance at large spatial scales. Here we use the metabolic theory of ecology as a framework to formulate and test a model that yields predictions linking population density to the physiological constraints of body size and temperature on individual metabolism, and the ecological constraints of trophic structure and species richness on energy partitioning among species. Our model was tested by applying Bayesian quantile regression to a comprehensive reef-fish community database, from which we extracted density data for 5609 populations spread across 49 sites around the world. Our results indicate that population density declines markedly with increases in community species richness and that, after accounting for richness, energetic constraints are manifested most strongly for the most abundant species, which generally are of small body size and occupy lower trophic groups. Overall, our findings suggest that, at the global scale, factors associated with community species richness are the major drivers of variation in population density. Given that populations of species-rich tropical systems exhibit markedly lower maximum densities, they may be particularly susceptible to stochastic extinction. © 2016 The Author(s).

Energetic and ecological constraints on population density of reef fishes

PubMed Central

Barneche, D. R.; Kulbicki, M.; Floeter, S. R.; Friedlander, A. M.; Allen, A. P.

2016-01-01

Population ecology has classically focused on pairwise species interactions, hindering the description of general patterns and processes of population abundance at large spatial scales. Here we use the metabolic theory of ecology as a framework to formulate and test a model that yields predictions linking population density to the physiological constraints of body size and temperature on individual metabolism, and the ecological constraints of trophic structure and species richness on energy partitioning among species. Our model was tested by applying Bayesian quantile regression to a comprehensive reef-fish community database, from which we extracted density data for 5609 populations spread across 49 sites around the world. Our results indicate that population density declines markedly with increases in community species richness and that, after accounting for richness, energetic constraints are manifested most strongly for the most abundant species, which generally are of small body size and occupy lower trophic groups. Overall, our findings suggest that, at the global scale, factors associated with community species richness are the major drivers of variation in population density. Given that populations of species-rich tropical systems exhibit markedly lower maximum densities, they may be particularly susceptible to stochastic extinction. PMID:26791611

Influences of water and sediment quality and hydrologic processes on mussels in the Clinch River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Gregory C.; Krstolic, Jennifer L.; Ostby, Brett J.K.

2014-01-01

Segments of the Clinch River in Virginia have experienced declining freshwater mussel populations during the past 40 years, while other segments of the river continue to support some of the richest mussel communities in the country. The close proximity of these contrasting reaches provides a study area where differences in climate, hydrology, and historic mussel distribution are minimal. The USGS conducted a study between 2009 and 2011 to evaluate possible causes of the mussel declines. Evaluation of mussel habitat showed no differences in physical habitat quality, leaving water and sediment quality as possible causes for declines. Three years of continuous water-quality data showed higher turbidity and specific conductance in the reaches with low-quality mussel assemblages compared to reaches with high-quality mussel assemblages. Discrete water-quality samples showed higher major ions and metals concentrations in the low-quality reach. Base-flow samples contained high major ion and metal concentrations coincident to low-quality mussel populations. These results support a conceptual model of dilution and augmentation where increased concentrations of major ions and other dissolved constituents from mined tributaries result in reaches with declining mussel populations. Tributaries from unmined basins provide water with low concentrations of dissolved constituents, diluting reaches of the Clinch River where high-quality mussel populations occur.

Invasion dynamics of white-nose syndrome fungus, midwestern United States, 2012-2014.

PubMed

Langwig, Kate E; Hoyt, Joseph R; Parise, Katy L; Kath, Joe; Kirk, Dan; Frick, Winifred F; Foster, Jeffrey T; Kilpatrick, A Marm

2015-06-01

White-nose syndrome has devastated bat populations in eastern North America. In Midwestern United States, prevalence increased quickly in the first year of invasion (2012-13) but with low population declines. In the second year (2013-14), environmental contamination led to earlier infection and high population declines. Interventions must be implemented before or soon after fungal invasion to prevent population collapse.

Tree Density and Species Decline in the African Sahel Attributable to Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gonzalez, Patrick; Tucker, Compton J.; Sy, H.

2012-01-01

Increased aridity and human population have reduced tree cover in parts of the African Sahel and degraded resources for local people. Yet, tree cover trends and the relative importance of climate and population remain unresolved. From field measurements, aerial photos, and Ikonos satellite images, we detected significant 1954-2002 tree density declines in the western Sahel of 18 +/- 14% (P = 0.014, n = 204) and 17 +/- 13% (P = 0.0009, n = 187). From field observations, we detected a significant 1960-2000 species richness decline of 21 +/- 11% (P = 0.0028, n = 14) across the Sahel and a southward shift of the Sahel, Sudan, and Guinea zones. Multivariate analyses of climate, soil, and population showed that temperature most significantly (P < 0.001) explained tree cover changes. Multivariate and bivariate tests and field observations indicated the dominance of temperature and precipitation, supporting attribution of tree cover changes to climate variability. Climate change forcing of Sahel climate variability, particularly the significant (P < 0.05) 1901-2002 temperature increases and precipitation decreases in the research areas, connects Sahel tree cover changes to global climate change. This suggests roles for global action and local adaptation to address ecological change in the Sahel.

Combined effects of climate, predation, and density dependence on Greater and Lesser Scaup population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Beth E.; Hooten, Mevin B.; DeVink, Jean-Michel; Koons, David N.

2015-01-01

An understanding of species relationships is critical in the management and conservation of populations facing climate change, yet few studies address how climate alters species interactions and other population drivers. We use a long-term, broad-scale data set of relative abundance to examine the influence of climate, predators, and density dependence on the population dynamics of declining scaup (Aythya) species within the core of their breeding range. The state-space modeling approach we use applies to a wide range of wildlife species, especially populations monitored over broad spatiotemporal extents. Using this approach, we found that immediate snow cover extent in the preceding winter and spring had the strongest effects, with increases in mean snow cover extent having a positive effect on the local surveyed abundance of scaup. The direct effects of mesopredator abundance on scaup population dynamics were weaker, but the results still indicated a potential interactive process between climate and food web dynamics (mesopredators, alternative prey, and scaup). By considering climate variables and other potential effects on population dynamics, and using a rigorous estimation framework, we provide insight into complex ecological processes for guiding conservation and policy actions aimed at mitigating and reversing the decline of scaup.

Sexual segregation in North American elk: the role of density dependence

PubMed Central

Stewart, Kelley M; Walsh, Danielle R; Kie, John G; Dick, Brian L; Bowyer, R Terry

2015-01-01

We investigated how density-dependent processes and subsequent variation in nutritional condition of individuals influenced both timing and duration of sexual segregation and selection of resources. During 1999–2001, we experimentally created two population densities of North American elk (Cervus elaphus), a high-density population at 20 elk/km2, and a low-density population at 4 elk/km2 to test hypotheses relative to timing and duration of sexual segregation and variation in selection of resources. We used multi-response permutation procedures to investigate patterns of sexual segregation, and resource selection functions to document differences in selection of resources by individuals in high- and low-density populations during sexual segregation and aggregation. The duration of sexual segregation was 2 months longer in the high-density population and likely was influenced by individuals in poorer nutritional condition, which corresponded with later conception and parturition, than at low density. Males and females in the high-density population overlapped in selection of resources to a greater extent than in the low-density population, probably resulting from density-dependent effects of increased intraspecific competition and lower availability of resources. PMID:25691992

Estimating the population size and colony boundary of subterranean termites by using the density functions of directionally averaged capture probability.

PubMed

Su, Nan-Yao; Lee, Sang-Hee

2008-04-01

Marked termites were released in a linear-connected foraging arena, and the spatial heterogeneity of their capture probabilities was averaged for both directions at distance r from release point to obtain a symmetrical distribution, from which the density function of directionally averaged capture probability P(x) was derived. We hypothesized that as marked termites move into the population and given sufficient time, the directionally averaged capture probability may reach an equilibrium P(e) over the distance r and thus satisfy the equal mixing assumption of the mark-recapture protocol. The equilibrium capture probability P(e) was used to estimate the population size N. The hypothesis was tested in a 50-m extended foraging arena to simulate the distance factor of field colonies of subterranean termites. Over the 42-d test period, the density functions of directionally averaged capture probability P(x) exhibited four phases: exponential decline phase, linear decline phase, equilibrium phase, and postequilibrium phase. The equilibrium capture probability P(e), derived as the intercept of the linear regression during the equilibrium phase, correctly projected N estimates that were not significantly different from the known number of workers in the arena. Because the area beneath the probability density function is a constant (50% in this study), preequilibrium regression parameters and P(e) were used to estimate the population boundary distance 1, which is the distance between the release point and the boundary beyond which the population is absent.

Prioritizing Avian Species for Their Risk of Population-Level Consequences from Wind Energy Development

PubMed Central

Beston, Julie A.; Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Loss, Scott R.; Johnson, Douglas H.

2016-01-01

Recent growth in the wind energy industry has increased concerns about its impacts on wildlife populations. Direct impacts of wind energy include bird and bat collisions with turbines whereas indirect impacts include changes in wildlife habitat and behavior. Although many species may withstand these effects, species that are long-lived with low rates of reproduction, have specialized habitat preferences, or are attracted to turbines may be more prone to declines in population abundance. We developed a prioritization system to identify the avian species most likely to experience population declines from wind facilities based on their current conservation status and their expected risk from turbines. We developed 3 metrics of turbine risk that incorporate data on collision fatalities at wind facilities, population size, life history, species’ distributions relative to turbine locations, number of suitable habitat types, and species’ conservation status. We calculated at least 1 measure of turbine risk for 428 avian species that breed in the United States. We then simulated 100,000 random sets of cutoff criteria (i.e., the metric values used to assign species to different priority categories) for each turbine risk metric and for conservation status. For each set of criteria, we assigned each species a priority score and calculated the average priority score across all sets of criteria. Our prioritization system highlights both species that could potentially experience population decline caused by wind energy and species at low risk of population decline. For instance, several birds of prey, such as the long-eared owl, ferruginous hawk, Swainson’s hawk, and golden eagle, were at relatively high risk of population decline across a wide variety of cutoff values, whereas many passerines were at relatively low risk of decline. This prioritization system is a first step that will help researchers, conservationists, managers, and industry target future study and management activity. PMID:26963254

Prioritizing avian species for their risk of population-level consequences from wind energy development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beston, Julie A.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Loss, Scott; Johnson, Douglas H.

2016-01-01

Recent growth in the wind energy industry has increased concerns about its impacts on wildlife populations. Direct impacts of wind energy include bird and bat collisions with turbines whereas indirect impacts include changes in wildlife habitat and behavior. Although many species may withstand these effects, species that are long-lived with low rates of reproduction, have specialized habitat preferences, or are attracted to turbines may be more prone to declines in population abundance. We developed a prioritization system to identify the avian species most likely to experience population declines from wind facilities based on their current conservation status and their expected risk from turbines. We developed 3 metrics of turbine risk that incorporate data on collision fatalities at wind facilities, population size, life history, species’ distributions relative to turbine locations, number of suitable habitat types, and species’ conservation status. We calculated at least 1 measure of turbine risk for 428 avian species that breed in the United States. We then simulated 100,000 random sets of cutoff criteria (i.e., the metric values used to assign species to different priority categories) for each turbine risk metric and for conservation status. For each set of criteria, we assigned each species a priority score and calculated the average priority score across all sets of criteria. Our prioritization system highlights both species that could potentially experience population decline caused by wind energy and species at low risk of population decline. For instance, several birds of prey, such as the long-eared owl, ferruginous hawk, Swainson’s hawk, and golden eagle, were at relatively high risk of population decline across a wide variety of cutoff values, whereas many passerines were at relatively low risk of decline. This prioritization system is a first step that will help researchers, conservationists, managers, and industry target future study and management activity.

Prioritizing Avian Species for Their Risk of Population-Level Consequences from Wind Energy Development.

PubMed

Beston, Julie A; Diffendorfer, Jay E; Loss, Scott R; Johnson, Douglas H

2016-01-01

Recent growth in the wind energy industry has increased concerns about its impacts on wildlife populations. Direct impacts of wind energy include bird and bat collisions with turbines whereas indirect impacts include changes in wildlife habitat and behavior. Although many species may withstand these effects, species that are long-lived with low rates of reproduction, have specialized habitat preferences, or are attracted to turbines may be more prone to declines in population abundance. We developed a prioritization system to identify the avian species most likely to experience population declines from wind facilities based on their current conservation status and their expected risk from turbines. We developed 3 metrics of turbine risk that incorporate data on collision fatalities at wind facilities, population size, life history, species' distributions relative to turbine locations, number of suitable habitat types, and species' conservation status. We calculated at least 1 measure of turbine risk for 428 avian species that breed in the United States. We then simulated 100,000 random sets of cutoff criteria (i.e., the metric values used to assign species to different priority categories) for each turbine risk metric and for conservation status. For each set of criteria, we assigned each species a priority score and calculated the average priority score across all sets of criteria. Our prioritization system highlights both species that could potentially experience population decline caused by wind energy and species at low risk of population decline. For instance, several birds of prey, such as the long-eared owl, ferruginous hawk, Swainson's hawk, and golden eagle, were at relatively high risk of population decline across a wide variety of cutoff values, whereas many passerines were at relatively low risk of decline. This prioritization system is a first step that will help researchers, conservationists, managers, and industry target future study and management activity.

Cryptic disease-induced mortality may cause host extinction in an apparently stable host-parasite system.

PubMed

Valenzuela-Sánchez, Andrés; Schmidt, Benedikt R; Uribe-Rivera, David E; Costas, Francisco; Cunningham, Andrew A; Soto-Azat, Claudio

2017-09-27

The decline of wildlife populations due to emerging infectious disease often shows a common pattern: the parasite invades a naive host population, producing epidemic disease and a population decline, sometimes with extirpation. Some susceptible host populations can survive the epidemic phase and persist with endemic parasitic infection. Understanding host-parasite dynamics leading to persistence of the system is imperative to adequately inform conservation practice. Here we combine field data, statistical and mathematical modelling to explore the dynamics of the apparently stable Rhinoderma darwinii - Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) system. Our results indicate that Bd-induced population extirpation may occur even in the absence of epidemics and where parasite prevalence is relatively low. These empirical findings are consistent with previous theoretical predictions showing that highly pathogenic parasites are able to regulate host populations even at extremely low prevalence, highlighting that disease threats should be investigated as a cause of population declines even in the absence of an overt increase in mortality. © 2017 The Author(s).

Is Welfare Reform Responsible for Low Skilled Women's Declining Health Insurance Coverage in the 1990s?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeLeire, Thomas; Levine, Judith A.; Levy, Helen

2006-01-01

We use data from the 1989-2001 March Supplements to the Current Population Survey to determine whether welfare reform contributed to declines in health insurance coverage experienced by low-skilled women. Between 1988 and 2000, women with less than a high school education experienced an 8.0 percentage point decline in the probability of having…

Demography of snowshoe hares in relation to regional climate variabilty during a 10-year population cycle in interior Alaska

Treesearch

K. Kielland; K. Olson; E. Euskirchen

2009-01-01

We monitored populations of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus, Erxleben) in interior Alaska for 10 years from 1999 to 2008. During this period, fall densities of hares fluctuated approximately 14-fold. High population growth rates over summer were followed by large population declines over winter. Young-of-the-year hares tended to gain mass over...

LOW MINERAL DENSITY OF A WEIGHT-BEARING BONE AMONG ADULT WOMEN IN A HIGH FERTILITY POPULATION

PubMed Central

Stieglitz, Jonathan; Beheim, Bret A.; Trumble, Benjamin C.; Madimenos, Felicia C.; Kaplan, Hillard; Gurven, Michael

2014-01-01

Evolutionary theories of aging posit that greater reproductive effort causes somatic decline given a fundamental trade-off between investing energy in reproduction and repair. Few studies in high fertility human populations support this hypothesis, and problems of phenotypic correlation can obscure the expected trade-off between reproduction and somatic condition. This cross-sectional study investigates whether greater reproductive effort is associated with reduced calcaneal bone mineral density (BMD) among female Tsimane forager-farmers of lowland Bolivia. We also investigate whether female Tsimane BMD values are lower than sex- and age-matched US reference values, despite the fact that Tsimane engage in higher physical activity levels that can increase mechanical loading. To measure calcaneal BMD, quantitative ultrasonography was performed on 130 women (mean ± SD age = 36.6 ± 15.7, range = 15 – 75) that were recruited regardless of past or current reproductive status. Anthropometric and demographic data were collected during routine medical exams. As predicted, higher parity, short inter-birth interval, and earlier age at first birth are associated with reduced BMD among Tsimane women after adjusting for potential confounders. Population-level differences are apparent prior to the onset of reproduction, and age-related decline in BMD is greater among Tsimane compared to American women. Greater cumulative reproductive burden may lower calcaneal BMD individually and jointly with other lifestyle and heritable factors. Fitness impacts of kin transfers in adulthood may determine the value of investments in bone remodeling, and thus affect selection on age-profiles of bone mineral loss. PMID:25488367

Bumble bee nest abundance, foraging distance, and host-plant reproduction: implications for management and conservation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Recent reports of global declines in pollinator species imply an urgent need to assess native pollinator population sizes and density dependent benefits for linked plants. Here, we estimated effective population sizes (Ne) of four native bumblebee species, Bombus balteatus, B. flavifrons, B. bifariu...

Modeling population response to anthropogenic threats for a long-lived reptile, the desert tortoise

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Question/Methods The decline in desert tortoise population densities and abundances since the 1970s has been attributed to numerous threats, leading scientists, land managers, and conservationists to describe the plight of the species as a “death by a thousand cuts.” ...

The Gulf of Ambracia's Common Bottlenose Dolphins, Tursiops truncatus: A Highly Dense and yet Threatened Population.

PubMed

Gonzalvo, J; Lauriano, G; Hammond, P S; Viaud-Martinez, K A; Fossi, M C; Natoli, A; Marsili, L

The common bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) is the only cetacean present in the semiclosed waters of the Gulf of Ambracia, Western Greece. This increasingly degraded coastal ecosystem hosts one of the highest observed densities in the Mediterranean Sea for this species. Photo-identification data and tissue samples collected through skin-swabbing and remote biopsy sampling techniques during boat-based surveys conducted between 2006 and 2015 in the Gulf, were used to examine bottlenose dolphin abundance, population trends, site fidelity, genetic differentiation and toxicological status. Bottlenose dolphins showed high levels of year-round site fidelity throughout the 10-year study period. Dolphin population estimates mostly fell between 130 and 170 with CVs averaging about 10%; a trend in population size over the 10 years was a decline of 1.6% per year (but this was not significant). Genetic differentiation between the bottlenose dolphins of the Gulf and their conspecifics from neighbouring populations was detected, and low genetic diversity was found among individuals sampled. In addition, pesticides where identified as factors posing a real toxicological problem for local bottlenose dolphins. Therefore, in the Gulf of Ambracia, high dolphin density does not seem to be indicative of favourable conservation status or pristine habitat. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.

Devastating decline of forest elephants in central Africa.

PubMed

Maisels, Fiona; Strindberg, Samantha; Blake, Stephen; Wittemyer, George; Hart, John; Williamson, Elizabeth A; Aba'a, Rostand; Abitsi, Gaspard; Ambahe, Ruffin D; Amsini, Fidèl; Bakabana, Parfait C; Hicks, Thurston Cleveland; Bayogo, Rosine E; Bechem, Martha; Beyers, Rene L; Bezangoye, Anicet N; Boundja, Patrick; Bout, Nicolas; Akou, Marc Ella; Bene, Lambert Bene; Fosso, Bernard; Greengrass, Elizabeth; Grossmann, Falk; Ikamba-Nkulu, Clement; Ilambu, Omari; Inogwabini, Bila-Isia; Iyenguet, Fortune; Kiminou, Franck; Kokangoye, Max; Kujirakwinja, Deo; Latour, Stephanie; Liengola, Innocent; Mackaya, Quevain; Madidi, Jacob; Madzoke, Bola; Makoumbou, Calixte; Malanda, Guy-Aimé; Malonga, Richard; Mbani, Olivier; Mbendzo, Valentin A; Ambassa, Edgar; Ekinde, Albert; Mihindou, Yves; Morgan, Bethan J; Motsaba, Prosper; Moukala, Gabin; Mounguengui, Anselme; Mowawa, Brice S; Ndzai, Christian; Nixon, Stuart; Nkumu, Pele; Nzolani, Fabian; Pintea, Lilian; Plumptre, Andrew; Rainey, Hugo; de Semboli, Bruno Bokoto; Serckx, Adeline; Stokes, Emma; Turkalo, Andrea; Vanleeuwe, Hilde; Vosper, Ashley; Warren, Ymke

2013-01-01

African forest elephants- taxonomically and functionally unique-are being poached at accelerating rates, but we lack range-wide information on the repercussions. Analysis of the largest survey dataset ever assembled for forest elephants (80 foot-surveys; covering 13,000 km; 91,600 person-days of fieldwork) revealed that population size declined by ca. 62% between 2002-2011, and the taxon lost 30% of its geographical range. The population is now less than 10% of its potential size, occupying less than 25% of its potential range. High human population density, hunting intensity, absence of law enforcement, poor governance, and proximity to expanding infrastructure are the strongest predictors of decline. To save the remaining African forest elephants, illegal poaching for ivory and encroachment into core elephant habitat must be stopped. In addition, the international demand for ivory, which fuels illegal trade, must be dramatically reduced.

The effects of predator exclusion and food supplementation on Burrowing Owl (Speotyto cunicularia) population change in Saskatchewan

Treesearch

Troy I. Wellicome; Geoffrey L. Holroyd; Karyn Scalise; Earl R. Wiltse

1997-01-01

If low reproductive output plays an important role in the population decline of the Burrowing Owl (Speotyto cunicularia,) in Canada, we predicted the decline would slow or stop in our study population after consecutive years of productivity enhancement via food supplementation and predator exclusion. In the portion of our study site for which...

Increasingly inbred and fragmented populations of Plasmodium vivax associated with the eastward decline in malaria transmission across the Southwest Pacific

PubMed Central

Waltmann, Andreea; Koepfli, Cristian; Tessier, Natacha; Karl, Stephan; Fola, Abebe; Darcy, Andrew W.; Wini, Lyndes; Harrison, G. L. Abby; Barnadas, Céline; Jennison, Charlie; Karunajeewa, Harin; Boyd, Sarah; Whittaker, Maxine; Kazura, James; Bahlo, Melanie; Mueller, Ivo

2018-01-01

The human malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax is more resistant to malaria control strategies than Plasmodium falciparum, and maintains high genetic diversity even when transmission is low. To investigate whether declining P. vivax transmission leads to increasing population structure that would facilitate elimination, we genotyped samples from across the Southwest Pacific region, which experiences an eastward decline in malaria transmission, as well as samples from two time points at one site (Tetere, Solomon Islands) during intensified malaria control. Analysis of 887 P. vivax microsatellite haplotypes from hyperendemic Papua New Guinea (PNG, n = 443), meso-hyperendemic Solomon Islands (n = 420), and hypoendemic Vanuatu (n = 24) revealed increasing population structure and multilocus linkage disequilibrium yet a modest decline in diversity as transmission decreases over space and time. In Solomon Islands, which has had sustained control efforts for 20 years, and Vanuatu, which has experienced sustained low transmission for many years, significant population structure was observed at different spatial scales. We conclude that control efforts will eventually impact P. vivax population structure and with sustained pressure, populations may eventually fragment into a limited number of clustered foci that could be targeted for elimination. PMID:29373596

Increasingly inbred and fragmented populations of Plasmodium vivax associated with the eastward decline in malaria transmission across the Southwest Pacific.

PubMed

Waltmann, Andreea; Koepfli, Cristian; Tessier, Natacha; Karl, Stephan; Fola, Abebe; Darcy, Andrew W; Wini, Lyndes; Harrison, G L Abby; Barnadas, Céline; Jennison, Charlie; Karunajeewa, Harin; Boyd, Sarah; Whittaker, Maxine; Kazura, James; Bahlo, Melanie; Mueller, Ivo; Barry, Alyssa E

2018-01-01

The human malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax is more resistant to malaria control strategies than Plasmodium falciparum, and maintains high genetic diversity even when transmission is low. To investigate whether declining P. vivax transmission leads to increasing population structure that would facilitate elimination, we genotyped samples from across the Southwest Pacific region, which experiences an eastward decline in malaria transmission, as well as samples from two time points at one site (Tetere, Solomon Islands) during intensified malaria control. Analysis of 887 P. vivax microsatellite haplotypes from hyperendemic Papua New Guinea (PNG, n = 443), meso-hyperendemic Solomon Islands (n = 420), and hypoendemic Vanuatu (n = 24) revealed increasing population structure and multilocus linkage disequilibrium yet a modest decline in diversity as transmission decreases over space and time. In Solomon Islands, which has had sustained control efforts for 20 years, and Vanuatu, which has experienced sustained low transmission for many years, significant population structure was observed at different spatial scales. We conclude that control efforts will eventually impact P. vivax population structure and with sustained pressure, populations may eventually fragment into a limited number of clustered foci that could be targeted for elimination.

[Decline of protective forest and its prevention strategies from viewpoint of restoration ecology: taking Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica plantation in Zhanggutai as an example].

PubMed

Jiang, Fengqi; Zeng, Dehui; Yu, Zhanyuan

2006-12-01

Aimed at the decline of protective forest in China, and applying the key principles of restoration ecology, such as ecological succession, disturbance, and population density, etc., this paper assessed the rationality of designing elements of protective forest in decision-making level, and analyzed its relationships with the decline of the forest, taking Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica plantation in Zhanggutai sandy land as an example. It was considered that the disagreement of large-scale afforestation with succession climax in regional scale was aberrant to the ecological principles, and resulted in the aberrancy of the objectives, steps, species composition, and stand density of protective forest establishment, being the main cause of protective forest decline. Mismanagement and frequent natural and human disturbances were also the important causes for the decline. Three strategies for preventing the decline, i.e., better understanding damaged ecosystems, increasing material and energy input, and overcoming disturbances were put forward, and the objectives of restoring vegetation, judgment of climax for ecological succession, and application of plagioclimax in establishing artificial vegetation were discussed.

Polar bear population dynamics in the southern Beaufort Sea during a period of sea ice decline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; McDonald, Trent L.; Stirling, Ian; Derocher, Andrew E.; Richardson, Evan S.; Regehr, Eric V.; Douglas, David C.; Durner, George M.; Atwood, Todd C.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2015-01-01

In the southern Beaufort Sea of the United States and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark–recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25–50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from (1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly, (2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010, with ~900 bears in 2010 (90% CI 606–1212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies.

Risk assessment of lead poisoning and pesticide exposure in the declining population of red-breasted goose (Branta ruficollis) wintering in Eastern Europe.

PubMed

Mateo, Rafael; Petkov, Nikolai; Lopez-Antia, Ana; Rodríguez-Estival, Jaime; Green, Andy J

2016-11-01

The red-breasted goose Branta ruficollis is a globally threatened species (IUCN Vulnerable) and the only European goose species currently in decline. Working on the wintering grounds on the Black Sea Coast, we address two potential causes of decline of this species for the first time: lead poisoning, and contamination from pesticides. We quantified the densities of spent Pb shot in three wetlands used by the geese in north-east Bulgaria, and analysed the Pb concentration in the faeces of red-breasted geese and the more abundant greater white-fronted geese Anser albifrons, using Al concentration as an indicator of soil ingestion. Pb shot densities in sediments were low, and we found no evidence for Pb shot ingestion in red-breasted geese. On the other hand, we found that the geese were feeding on wheat whose seeds were treated with four fungicides: thiram, tebuconazole, difenoconazole and fludioxonil, and the two first were even detected in geese faecal samples. Using data on the daily food intake, we estimated the exposure levels of the geese to these fungicides, both by measuring the concentrations remaining on seeds and by estimating the amount used to coat the seeds at the time of sowing. We found that the exposure rates estimated during the sowing period for both geese species can exceed the recognized hazardous doses for thiram, and to a lesser extent for tebuconazole, which indicates that some pesticides may be playing a previously overlooked role in the decline of red-breasted geese. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Roosevelt elk density and social segregation: Foraging behavior and females avoiding larger groups of males

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weckerly, F.; McFarland, K.; Ricca, M.; Meyer, K.

2004-01-01

Intersexual social segregation at small spatial scales is prevalent in ruminants that are sexually dimorphic in body size. Explaining social segregation, however, from hypotheses of how intersexual size differences affects the foraging process of males and females has had mixed results. We studied whether body size influences on forage behavior, intersexual social incompatibility or both might influence social segregation in a population of Roosevelt elk (Cervus elaphus roosevelt) that declined 40% over 5 y. Most males and females in the population occurred in the same forage patches, meadows, but occupied different parts of meadows and most groups were overwhelming comprised of one sex. The extent of segregation varied slightly with changing elk density. Cropping rate, our surrogate of forage ingestion, of males in mixed-sex groups differed from males in male-only groups at high, but not low, elk density. In a prior study of intersexual social interactions it was shown that females avoided groups containing ???6 males. Therefore, we predicted that females should avoid parts of meadows where groups of males ???6 were prevalent. Across the 5 y of study this prediction held because ???5% of all females were found in parts of meadows where median aggregation sizes of males were ???6. Social segregation was coupled to body size influences on forage ingestion at high density and social incompatibility was coupled to social segregation regardless of elk density.

Microsatellite Analysis of Museum Specimens Reveals Historical Differences in Genetic Diversity between Declining and More Stable Bombus Species.

PubMed

Maebe, Kevin; Meeus, Ivan; Ganne, Maarten; De Meulemeester, Thibaut; Biesmeijer, Koos; Smagghe, Guy

2015-01-01

Worldwide most pollinators, e.g. bumblebees, are undergoing global declines. Loss of genetic diversity can play an essential role in these observed declines. In this paper, we investigated the level of genetic diversity of seven declining Bombus species and four more stable species with the use of microsatellite loci. Hereto we genotyped a unique collection of museum specimens. Specimens were collected between 1918 and 1926, in 6 provinces of the Netherlands which allowed us to make interspecific comparisons of genetic diversity. For the stable species B. pascuorum, we also selected populations from two additional time periods: 1949-1955 and 1975-1990. The genetic diversity and population structure in B. pascuorum remained constant over the three time periods. However, populations of declining bumblebee species showed a significantly lower genetic diversity than co-occurring stable species before their major declines. This historical difference indicates that the repeatedly observed reduced genetic diversity in recent populations of declining bumblebee species is not caused solely by the decline itself. The historically low genetic diversity in the declined species may be due to the fact that these species were already rare, making them more vulnerable to the major drivers of bumblebee decline.

Population Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic Analysis of Alirocumab in Healthy Volunteers or Hypercholesterolemic Subjects Using an Indirect Response Model to Predict Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Lowering: Support for a Biologics License Application Submission: Part II.

PubMed

Nicolas, Xavier; Djebli, Nassim; Rauch, Clémence; Brunet, Aurélie; Hurbin, Fabrice; Martinez, Jean-Marie; Fabre, David

2018-05-03

Alirocumab, a human monoclonal antibody against proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9), significantly lowers low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels. This analysis aimed to develop and qualify a population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model for alirocumab based on pooled data obtained from 13 phase I/II/III clinical trials. From a dataset of 2799 individuals (14,346 low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol values), individual pharmacokinetic parameters from the population pharmacokinetic model presented in Part I of this series were used to estimate alirocumab concentrations. As a second step, we then developed the current population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model using an indirect response model with a Hill coefficient, parameterized with increasing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol elimination, to relate alirocumab concentrations to low-density lipoprotein cholesterol values. The population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model allowed the characterization of the pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic properties of alirocumab in the target population and estimation of individual low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels and derived pharmacodynamic parameters (the maximum decrease in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol values from baseline and the difference between baseline low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and the pre-dose value before the next alirocumab dose). Significant parameter-covariate relationships were retained in the model, with a total of ten covariates (sex, age, weight, free baseline PCSK9, total time-varying PCSK9, concomitant statin administration, total baseline PCSK9, co-administration of high-dose statins, disease status) included in the final population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model to explain between-subject variability. Nevertheless, the high number of covariates included in the model did not have a clinically meaningful impact on model-derived pharmacodynamic parameters. This model successfully allowed the characterization of the population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic properties of alirocumab in its target population and the estimation of individual low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels.

Ecological and genetic impact of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami on intertidal mud snails

PubMed Central

Miura, Osamu; Kanaya, Gen; Nakai, Shizuko; Itoh, Hajime; Chiba, Satoshi; Makino, Wataru; Nishimura, Tomohiro; Kojima, Shigeaki; Urabe, Jotaro

2017-01-01

Natural disturbances often destroy local populations and can considerably affect the genetic properties of these populations. The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami greatly damaged local populations of various coastal organisms, including the mud snail Batillaria attramentaria, which was an abundant macroinvertebrate on the tidal flats in the Tohoku region. To evaluate the impact of the tsunami on the ecology and population genetic properties of these snails, we monitored the density, shell size, and microsatellite DNA variation of B. attramentaria for more than ten years (2005–2015) throughout the disturbance event. We found that the density of snails declined immediately after the tsunami. Bayesian inference of the genetically effective population size (Ne) demonstrated that the Ne declined by 60–99% at the study sites exposed to the tsunami. However, we found that their genetic diversity was not significantly reduced after the tsunami. The maintenance of genetic diversity is essential for long-term survival of local populations, and thus, the observed genetic robustness could play a key role in the persistence of snail populations in this region which has been devastated by similar tsunamis every 500–800 years. Our findings have significant implications for understanding the sustainability of populations damaged by natural disturbances. PMID:28281698

Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

2017-07-01

Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may have played a role in driving local dynamics. More generally, we demonstrated how state-space models can be used to test evidence for population spatial structure based on survey time-series data. Our study shows the importance of considering spatially structured dynamics, as the inferences from such an approach can lead to a different ecological understanding of the drivers of population declines, and fundamentally different management actions to restore populations. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Relationships among North American songbird trends, habitat fragmentation, and landscape occupancy

Treesearch

Therese M. Donovan; Curtis H. Flather

2002-01-01

Fragmentation of breeding habitat has been hypothesized as a cause of population declines in forest-nesting migratory birds. Negative correlations between the degree of fragmentation and bird density or fecundity at local or regional scales support the fragmentation hypothesis. Yet, in spite of reduced fecundity and densities in fragmented systems, many forest-nesting...

Home Range, Habitat Selection, and Population Dynamics of Southern Flying Squirrels in Managed Forests in Arkansas

Treesearch

James F. Taulman; Kimberly G. Smith

2004-01-01

Abstract After experimental harvests on 18 mature pine-hardwood stands in 6 replicated groups, flying squirrels changed from uniform pre-harvest patterns of nest box use to concentrating on protected greenbelt (GB) areas on harvested stands. Squirrel densities declined on all harvested stands as densities increased on three control stands. Fifty...

Observations on Neotricula aperta (Gastropoda: Pomatiopsidae) population densities in Thailand and central Laos: implications for the spread of Mekong schistosomiasis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The snail Neotricula aperta transmits Mekong schistosomiasis in southern Laos and Cambodia, with about 1.5 million people at risk of infection. Plans are under consideration for at least 12 hydroelectric power dams on the lower Mekong river and much controversy surrounds predictions of their environmental impacts. Unfortunately, there are almost no ecological data (such as long term population trend studies) available for N. aperta which could be used in impact assessment. Predictions currently assume that the impacts will be the same as those observed in Africa (i.e., a worsening of the schistosomiasis problem); however, marked ecological differences between the snails involved suggest that region specific models are required. The present study was performed as an initial step in providing data, which could be useful in the planning of water resource development in the Mekong. Snail population density records were analyzed for populations close to, and far downstream of, the Nam Theun 2 (NT2) project in Laos in order to detect any changes that might be attributable to impoundment. Results The population immediately downstream of NT2 and that sampled 400 km downstream in Thailand both showed a long term trend of slow growth from 1992 to 2005; however, both populations showed a marked decline in density between 2005 and 2011. The decline in Thailand was to a value significantly lower than that predicted by a linear mixed model for the data, whilst the population density close to NT2 fell to undetectable levels in 2011 from densities of over 5000 m-2 in 2005. The NT2 dam began operation in 2010. Conclusions The impact of the NT2 dam on N. aperta population density could be more complex than first thought and may reflect the strict ecological requirements of this snail. There was no indication that responses of N. aperta populations to dam construction are similar to those observed with Bulinus and Schistosoma haematobium in Africa, for example. In view of the present findings, more ecological data (in particular population density monitoring and surveillance for new habitats) are urgently required in order to understand properly the likely impacts of water resource development on Mekong schistosomiasis. PMID:22720904

Variability in winter climate and winter extremes reduces population growth of an alpine butterfly.

PubMed

Roland, Jens; Matter, Stephen F

2013-01-01

We examined the long-term, 15-year pattern of population change in a network of 21 Rocky Mountain populations of Parnassius smintheus butterflies in response to climatic variation. We found that winter values of the broadscale climate variable, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, were a strong predictor of annual population growth, much more so than were endogenous biotic factors related to population density. The relationship between PDO and population growth was nonlinear. Populations declined in years with extreme winter PDO values, when there were either extremely warm or extremely cold sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific relative to that in the western Pacific. Results suggest that more variable winters, and more frequent extremely cold or warm winters, will result in more frequent decline of these populations, a pattern exacerbated by the trend for increasingly variable winters seen over the past century.

Change-in-ratio density estimator for feral pigs is less biased than closed mark-recapture estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, L.B.; Grand, J.B.; Mitchell, M.S.; Jolley, D.B.; Sparklin, B.D.; Ditchkoff, S.S.

2008-01-01

Closed-population capture-mark-recapture (CMR) methods can produce biased density estimates for species with low or heterogeneous detection probabilities. In an attempt to address such biases, we developed a density-estimation method based on the change in ratio (CIR) of survival between two populations where survival, calculated using an open-population CMR model, is known to differ. We used our method to estimate density for a feral pig (Sus scrofa) population on Fort Benning, Georgia, USA. To assess its validity, we compared it to an estimate of the minimum density of pigs known to be alive and two estimates based on closed-population CMR models. Comparison of the density estimates revealed that the CIR estimator produced a density estimate with low precision that was reasonable with respect to minimum known density. By contrast, density point estimates using the closed-population CMR models were less than the minimum known density, consistent with biases created by low and heterogeneous capture probabilities for species like feral pigs that may occur in low density or are difficult to capture. Our CIR density estimator may be useful for tracking broad-scale, long-term changes in species, such as large cats, for which closed CMR models are unlikely to work. ?? CSIRO 2008.

Deepwater sculpin status and recovery in Lake Ontario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weidel, Brian C.; Walsh, Maureen; Connerton, Michael J.; Lantry, Brian F.; Lantry, Jana R.; Holden, Jeremy P.; Yuille, Michael J.; Hoyle, James A.

2017-01-01

Deepwater sculpin are important in oligotrophic lakes as one of the few fishes that use deep profundal habitats and link invertebrates in those habitats to piscivores. In Lake Ontario the species was once abundant, however drastic declines in the mid-1900s led some to suggest the species had been extirpated and ultimately led Canadian and U.S. agencies to elevate the species' conservation status. Following two decades of surveys with no captures, deepwater sculpin were first caught in low numbers in 1996 and by the early 2000s there were indications of population recovery. We updated the status of Lake Ontario deepwater sculpin through 2016 to inform resource management and conservation. Our data set was comprised of 8431 bottom trawls sampled from 1996 to 2016, in U.S. and Canadian waters spanning depths from 5 to 225 m. Annual density estimates generally increased from 1996 through 2016, and an exponential model estimated the rate of population increase was ~ 59% per year. The mean total length and the proportion of fish greater than the estimated length at maturation (~ 116 mm) generally increased until a peak in 2013. In addition, the mean length of all deepwater sculpin captured in a trawl significantly increased with depth. Across all years examined, deepwater sculpin densities generally increased with depth, increasing sharply at depths > 150 m. Bottom trawl observations suggest the Lake Ontario deepwater sculpin population has recovered and current densities and biomass densities may now be similar to the other Great Lakes.

Scat-detection dogs survey low density moose in New York

Treesearch

Heidi Kretser; Michale Glennon; Alice Whitelaw; Aimee Hurt; Kristine Pilgrim; Michael Schwartz

2016-01-01

The difficulty of collecting occurrence and population dynamics data in mammalian populations of low density poses challenges for making informed management decisions. We assessed the use of scat-detection dogs to search for fecal pellets in a low density moose (Alces alces) population in the Adirondack Park in New York State, and the success rate of DNA...

Evaluation of pseudostem trapping as a control measure against banana weevil, Cosmopolites sordidus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in Uganda.

PubMed

Gold, C S; Gold, C S; Okech, S H; Nokoe, S

2002-02-01

Controlled studies to determine the efficacy of pseudostem trapping in reducing adult populations of the banana weevil, Cosmopolites sordidus (Germar), were conducted under farmer conditions in Ntungamo district, Uganda. Twenty-seven farms were stratified on the basis of C. sordidus population density (estimated by mark and recapture methods) and divided among three treatments: (i) researcher-managed trapping (one trap per mat per month): (ii) farmer-managed trapping (trap intensity at discretion of farmer); and (iii) controls (no trapping). Intensive trapping (managed by researchers) resulted in significantly lower C. sordidus damage after one year. Over the same period, C. sordidus numbers declined by 61% on farms where trapping was managed by researchers, 53% where farmers managed trapping and 38% on farms without trapping; however, results varied greatly among farms and, overall, there was no significant effect of trapping on C. sordidus numbers. Moreover, there was only a weak relationship between the number of C. sordidus removed and the change in population density. Trapping success appeared to be affected by management levels and immigration from neighbouring farms. Although farmers were convinced that trapping was beneficial, adoption has been low due to resource requirements.

Conservation of wildlife populations: factoring in incremental disturbance.

PubMed

Stewart, Abbie; Komers, Petr E

2017-06-01

Progressive anthropogenic disturbance can alter ecosystem organization potentially causing shifts from one stable state to another. This potential for ecosystem shifts must be considered when establishing targets and objectives for conservation. We ask whether a predator-prey system response to incremental anthropogenic disturbance might shift along a disturbance gradient and, if it does, whether any disturbance thresholds are evident for this system. Development of linear corridors in forested areas increases wolf predation effectiveness, while high density of development provides a safe-haven for their prey. If wolves limit moose population growth, then wolves and moose should respond inversely to land cover disturbance. Using general linear model analysis, we test how the rate of change in moose ( Alces alces ) density and wolf ( Canis lupus ) harvest density are influenced by the rate of change in land cover and proportion of land cover disturbed within a 300,000 km 2 area in the boreal forest of Alberta, Canada. Using logistic regression, we test how the direction of change in moose density is influenced by measures of land cover change. In response to incremental land cover disturbance, moose declines occurred where <43% of land cover was disturbed; in such landscapes, there were high rates of increase in linear disturbance and wolf density increased. By contrast, moose increases occurred where >43% of land cover was disturbed and wolf density declined. Wolves and moose appeared to respond inversely to incremental disturbance with the balance between moose decline and wolf increase shifting at about 43% of land cover disturbed. Conservation decisions require quantification of disturbance rates and their relationships to predator-prey systems because ecosystem responses to anthropogenic disturbance shift across disturbance gradients.

Positive density-dependent reproduction regulated by local kinship and size in an understorey tropical tree

PubMed Central

Castilla, Antonio R.; Pope, Nathaniel; Jha, Shalene

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Global pollinator declines and continued habitat fragmentation highlight the critical need to understand reproduction and gene flow across plant populations. Plant size, conspecific density and local kinship (i.e. neighbourhood genetic relatedness) have been proposed as important mechanisms influencing the reproductive success of flowering plants, but have rarely been simultaneously investigated. Methods We conducted this study on a continuous population of the understorey tree Miconia affinis in the Forest Dynamics Plot on Barro Colorado Island in central Panama. We used spatial, reproductive and population genetic data to investigate the effects of tree size, conspecific neighbourhood density and local kinship on maternal and paternal reproductive success. We used a Bayesian framework to simultaneously model the effects of our explanatory variables on the mean and variance of maternal viable seed set and siring success. Key Results Our results reveal that large trees had lower proportions of viable seeds in their fruits but sired more seeds. We documented differential effects of neighbourhood density and local kinship on both maternal and paternal reproductive components. Trees in more dense neighbourhoods produced on average more viable seeds, although this positive density effect was influenced by variance-inflation with increasing local kinship. Neighbourhood density did not have significant effects on siring success. Conclusions This study is one of the first to reveal an interaction among tree size, conspecific density and local kinship as critical factors differentially influencing maternal and paternal reproductive success. We show that both maternal and paternal reproductive success should be evaluated to determine the population-level and individual traits most essential for plant reproduction. In addition to conserving large trees, we suggest the inclusion of small trees and the conservation of dense patches with low kinship as potential strategies for strengthening the reproductive status of tropical trees. PMID:26602288

Positive density-dependent reproduction regulated by local kinship and size in an understorey tropical tree.

PubMed

Castilla, Antonio R; Pope, Nathaniel; Jha, Shalene

2016-02-01

Global pollinator declines and continued habitat fragmentation highlight the critical need to understand reproduction and gene flow across plant populations. Plant size, conspecific density and local kinship (i.e. neighbourhood genetic relatedness) have been proposed as important mechanisms influencing the reproductive success of flowering plants, but have rarely been simultaneously investigated. We conducted this study on a continuous population of the understorey tree Miconia affinis in the Forest Dynamics Plot on Barro Colorado Island in central Panama. We used spatial, reproductive and population genetic data to investigate the effects of tree size, conspecific neighbourhood density and local kinship on maternal and paternal reproductive success. We used a Bayesian framework to simultaneously model the effects of our explanatory variables on the mean and variance of maternal viable seed set and siring success. Our results reveal that large trees had lower proportions of viable seeds in their fruits but sired more seeds. We documented differential effects of neighbourhood density and local kinship on both maternal and paternal reproductive components. Trees in more dense neighbourhoods produced on average more viable seeds, although this positive density effect was influenced by variance-inflation with increasing local kinship. Neighbourhood density did not have significant effects on siring success. This study is one of the first to reveal an interaction among tree size, conspecific density and local kinship as critical factors differentially influencing maternal and paternal reproductive success. We show that both maternal and paternal reproductive success should be evaluated to determine the population-level and individual traits most essential for plant reproduction. In addition to conserving large trees, we suggest the inclusion of small trees and the conservation of dense patches with low kinship as potential strategies for strengthening the reproductive status of tropical trees. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Effects of forest management on density, survival, and population growth of wood thrushes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Powell, L.A.; Lang, J.D.; Conroy, M.J.; Krementz, D.G.

2000-01-01

Loss and alteration of breeding habitat have been proposed as causes of declines in several Neotropical migrant bird populations. We conducted a 4-year study to determine the effects of winter prescribed burning and forest thinning on breeding wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) populations at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge (PNWR) in Georgia. We estimated density, adult and juvenile survival rates, and apparent annual survival using transect surveys, radiotelemetry, and mist netting. Burning and thinning did not cause lower densities (P = 0.25); wood thrush density ranged from 0.15 to 1.30 pairs/10 ha. No radiomarked male wood thrushes (n = 68) died during the 4 years, but female (n = 63) weekly survival was 0.981 ? 0.014 (SE) for females (n = 63) and 0.976 ? 0.010 for juveniles (n = 38). Apparent annual adult survival was 0.579 (SE = 0.173). Thinning and prescribed burning did not reduce adult or juvenile survival during the breeding season or apparent annual adult survival. Annual population growth (lambda) at PNWR was 1.00 (95% confidence interval = 0.32--1.63), and the considerable uncertainty in this prediction underscores the need for long term monitoring to effectively manage Neotropical migrants. Population growth increased on experimental compartments after the burn and thin (95% CI before = 0.91--0.97, after = 0.98--1.05), while control compartment declined (before = 0.98--1.05, after = 0.87--0.92). We found no evidence that the current management regime at PNWR, designed to improve red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis) habitat, negatively affected wood thrushes.

Devastating Decline of Forest Elephants in Central Africa

PubMed Central

Blake, Stephen; Wittemyer, George; Hart, John; Williamson, Elizabeth A.; Aba’a, Rostand; Abitsi, Gaspard; Ambahe, Ruffin D.; Amsini, Fidèl; Bakabana, Parfait C.; Hicks, Thurston Cleveland; Bayogo, Rosine E.; Bechem, Martha; Beyers, Rene L.; Bezangoye, Anicet N.; Boundja, Patrick; Bout, Nicolas; Akou, Marc Ella; Bene, Lambert Bene; Fosso, Bernard; Greengrass, Elizabeth; Grossmann, Falk; Ikamba-Nkulu, Clement; Ilambu, Omari; Inogwabini, Bila-Isia; Iyenguet, Fortune; Kiminou, Franck; Kokangoye, Max; Kujirakwinja, Deo; Latour, Stephanie; Liengola, Innocent; Mackaya, Quevain; Madidi, Jacob; Madzoke, Bola; Makoumbou, Calixte; Malanda, Guy-Aimé; Malonga, Richard; Mbani, Olivier; Mbendzo, Valentin A.; Ambassa, Edgar; Ekinde, Albert; Mihindou, Yves; Morgan, Bethan J.; Motsaba, Prosper; Moukala, Gabin; Mounguengui, Anselme; Mowawa, Brice S.; Ndzai, Christian; Nixon, Stuart; Nkumu, Pele; Nzolani, Fabian; Pintea, Lilian; Plumptre, Andrew; Rainey, Hugo; de Semboli, Bruno Bokoto; Serckx, Adeline; Stokes, Emma; Turkalo, Andrea; Vanleeuwe, Hilde; Vosper, Ashley; Warren, Ymke

2013-01-01

African forest elephants– taxonomically and functionally unique–are being poached at accelerating rates, but we lack range-wide information on the repercussions. Analysis of the largest survey dataset ever assembled for forest elephants (80 foot-surveys; covering 13,000 km; 91,600 person-days of fieldwork) revealed that population size declined by ca. 62% between 2002–2011, and the taxon lost 30% of its geographical range. The population is now less than 10% of its potential size, occupying less than 25% of its potential range. High human population density, hunting intensity, absence of law enforcement, poor governance, and proximity to expanding infrastructure are the strongest predictors of decline. To save the remaining African forest elephants, illegal poaching for ivory and encroachment into core elephant habitat must be stopped. In addition, the international demand for ivory, which fuels illegal trade, must be dramatically reduced. PMID:23469289

Decline of a Rare Moth at Its Last Known English Site: Causes and Lessons for Conservation.

PubMed

Baker, David; Barrett, Sinead; Beale, Colin M; Crawford, Terry J; Ellis, Sam; Gullett, Tallulah; Mayhew, Peter J; Parsons, Mark S; Relf, Penny; Robertson, Paul; Small, Julian; Wainwright, Dave

2016-01-01

The conditions required by rare species are often only approximately known. Monitoring such species over time can help refine management of their protected areas. We report population trends of a rare moth, the Dark Bordered Beauty Epione vespertaria (Linnaeus, 1767) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) at its last known English site on a protected lowland heath, and those of its host-plant, Salix repens (L.) (Malpighiales: Salicaceae). Between 2007 and 2014, adult moth density reduced by an average of 30-35% annually over the monitored area, and its range over the monitored area contracted in concert. By comparing data from before this decline (2005) with data taken in 2013, we show that the density of host-plants over the monitored area reduced three-fold overall, and ten-fold in the areas of highest host-plant density. In addition, plants were significantly smaller in 2013. In 2005, moth larvae tended to be found on plants that were significantly larger than average at the time. By 2013, far fewer plants were of an equivalent size. This suggests that the rapid decline of the moth population coincides with, and is likely driven by, changes in the host-plant population. Why the host-plant population has changed remains less certain, but fire, frost damage and grazing damage have probably contributed. It is likely that a reduction in grazing pressure in parts of the site would aid host-plant recovery, although grazing remains an important site management activity. Our work confirms the value of constant monitoring of rare or priority insect species, of the risks posed to species with few populations even when their populations are large, of the potential conflict between bespoke management for species and generic management of habitats, and hence the value of refining our knowledge of rare species' requirements so that their needs can be incorporated into the management of protected areas.

Bioenergetics models to estimate numbers of larval lampreys consumed by smallmouth bass in Elk Creek, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schultz, Luke; Heck, Michael; Kowalski, Brandon M; Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Coates, Kelly C.; Dunham, Jason B.

2017-01-01

Nonnative fishes have been increasingly implicated in the decline of native fishes in the Pacific Northwest. Smallmouth Bass Micropterus dolomieu were introduced into the Umpqua River in southwest Oregon in the early 1960s. The spread of Smallmouth Bass throughout the basin coincided with a decline in counts of upstream-migrating Pacific Lampreys Entosphenus tridentatus. This suggested the potential for ecological interactions between Smallmouth Bass and Pacific Lampreys, as well as freshwater-resident Western Brook Lampreys Lampetra richardsoni. To evaluate the potential effects of Smallmouth Bass on lampreys, we sampled diets of Smallmouth Bass and used bioenergetics models to estimate consumption of larval lampreys in a segment of Elk Creek, a tributary to the lower Umpqua River. We captured 303 unique Smallmouth Bass (mean: 197 mm and 136 g) via angling in July and September. We combined information on Smallmouth Bass diet and energy density with other variables (temperature, body size, growth, prey energy density) in a bioenergetics model to estimate consumption of larval lampreys. Larval lampreys were found in 6.2% of diet samples, and model estimates indicated that the Smallmouth Bass we captured consumed 925 larval lampreys in this 2-month study period. When extrapolated to a population estimate of Smallmouth Bass in this segment, we estimated 1,911 larval lampreys were consumed between July and September. Although the precision of these estimates was low, this magnitude of consumption suggests that Smallmouth Bass may negatively affect larval lamprey populations.

Juvenile flatfish in the northern Baltic Sea - long-term decline and potential links to habitat characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jokinen, Henri; Wennhage, Håkan; Ollus, Victoria; Aro, Eero; Norkko, Alf

2016-01-01

Flatfish in the northern Baltic Sea are facing multiple environmental pressures due to on-going large-scale ecosystem changes linked to eutrophication and climate change. Shallow juvenile habitats of flatfishes are expected to be especially susceptible to these environmental pressures. Using previously unpublished historical and present-state data on juvenile flatfish in nursery areas along the Finnish coast we demonstrate a drastic (up to 40 ×) decline in 1-Y-O flounder densities since the 1980s and a particularly low current occurrence of both flounders and turbots in several known juvenile habitats. As a consequence of ongoing coastal eutrophication vegetation coverage and filamentous algae have generally increased in shallow areas. We examined the predicted negative effect of vegetation/algae by exploring quantitative relationships between juvenile flatfish (flounder and turbot) occurrence and vegetation/algae among other environmental factors in shallow juvenile habitats. Despite sparse occurrence of juveniles we found a significant negative relationship between flatfish abundance and vegetation cover, implicating eutrophication as a potential major driver affecting the value of juvenile habitat. Shallow littoral habitats play a particularly central role for flatfish due to the spatial concentration of fish in these areas during the critical juvenile stage. Despite their importance, these areas have been relatively poorly studied in the northern Baltic Sea, which makes it difficult to quantify overall changes in environmental conditions and to relate these changes to flatfish recruitment. The low present-state flatfish densities recorded preclude strong inferences of the role of habitat quality to be drawn. Our study does, however, provide a baseline for future assessment. Based on existing evidence, we cannot thus establish any bottlenecks but hypothesize that the current low occurrence of juvenile flatfish, and the population decline of flounder on the Finnish coast, might have resulted from a combination of altered larval supply and reduced nursery value.

Terrestrial bird population trends on Aguiguan (Goat Island), Mariana Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amidon, Fred; Camp, Richard J.; Marshall, Ann P.; Pratt, Thane K.; Williams, Laura; Radley, Paul; Cruz, Justine B.

2014-01-01

The island of Aguiguan is part of the Mariana archipelago and currently supports populations of four endemic species, including one endemic genus, Cleptornis. Bird population trends since 1982 were recently assessed on the neighbouring islands of Saipan, Tinian, and Rota indicating declines in some native species. Point-transect surveys were conducted in 2008 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to assess population densities and trends on Aguiguan. Densities for six of the nine native birds—White-throated Ground-dove Gallicolumba xanthonura, Collared Kingfisher Todiramphus chloris, Rufous Fantail Rhipidura rufifrons, Golden White-eye Cleptornis marchei, Bridled White-eye Zosterops conspicillatus and Micronesian Starling Aplonis opaca—and the non-native bird—Island Collared-dove Streptopelia bitorquata—were significantly greater in 2008 than in 1982. No differences in densities were detected among the surveys for Mariana Fruit-dove Ptilinopus roseicapilla, and Micronesian MyzomelaMyzomela rubratra. Three federally and locally listed endangered birds—Nightingale Reed-warbler Acrocephalus luscinius, Mariana Swiftlet Collocalia bartschi, and Micronesian Megapode Megapodius laperous)—were either not detected during the point-transect counts, the surveys were not appropriate for the species, or the numbers of birds detected were too small to estimate densities. The factors behind the increasing trends for some species are unknown but may be related to increased forest cover on the island since 1982. With declining trends for some native species on neighbouring islands, the increasing and stable trends on Aguiguan is good news for forest bird populations in the region, as Aguiguan populations can help support conservation efforts on other islands in the archipelago.

Mountain gorilla genomes reveal the impact of long-term population decline and inbreeding

PubMed Central

Ayub, Qasim; Szpak, Michal; Frandsen, Peter; Chen, Yuan; Yngvadottir, Bryndis; Cooper, David N.; de Manuel, Marc; Hernandez-Rodriguez, Jessica; Lobon, Irene; Siegismund, Hans R.; Pagani, Luca; Quail, Michael A.; Hvilsom, Christina; Mudakikwa, Antoine; Eichler, Evan E.; Cranfield, Michael R.; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Tyler-Smith, Chris; Scally, Aylwyn

2015-01-01

Mountain gorillas are an endangered great ape subspecies and a prominent focus for conservation, yet we know little about their genomic diversity and evolutionary past. We sequenced whole genomes from multiple wild individuals and compared the genomes of all four Gorilla subspecies. We found that the two eastern subspecies have experienced a prolonged population decline over the past 100,000 years, resulting in very low genetic diversity and an increased overall burden of deleterious variation. A further recent decline in the mountain gorilla population has led to extensive inbreeding, such that individuals are typically homozygous at 34% of their sequence, leading to the purging of severely deleterious recessive mutations from the population. We discuss the causes of their decline and the consequences for their future survival. PMID:25859046

Developing recreational harvest regulations for an unexploited lake trout population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lenker, Melissa A; Weidel, Brian C.; Jensen, Olaf P.; Solomon, Christopher T.

2016-01-01

Developing fishing regulations for previously unexploited populations presents numerous challenges, many of which stem from a scarcity of baseline information about abundance, population productivity, and expected angling pressure. We used simulation models to test the effect of six management strategies (catch and release; trophy, minimum, and maximum length limits; and protected and exploited slot length limits) on an unexploited population of Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush in Follensby Pond, a 393-ha lake located in New York State’s Adirondack Park. We combined field and literature data and mark–recapture abundance estimates to parameterize an age-structured population model and used the model to assess the effects of each management strategy on abundance, catch per unit effort (CPUE), and harvest over a range of angler effort (0–2,000 angler-days/year). Lake Trout density (3.5 fish/ha for fish ≥ age 13, the estimated age at maturity) was similar to densities observed in other unexploited systems, but growth rate was relatively slow. Maximum harvest occurred at levels of effort ≤ 1,000 angler-days/year in all the scenarios considered. Regulations that permitted harvest of large postmaturation fish, such as New York’s standard Lake Trout minimum size limit or a trophy size limit, resulted in low harvest and high angler CPUE. Regulations that permitted harvest of small and sometimes immature fish, such as a protected slot or maximum size limit, allowed high harvest but resulted in low angler CPUE and produced rapid declines in harvest with increases in effort beyond the effort consistent with maximum yield. Management agencies can use these results to match regulations to management goals and to assess the risks of different management options for unexploited Lake Trout populations and other fish species with similar life history traits.

Population density and mortality among individuals in motor vehicle crashes.

PubMed

Gedeborg, Rolf; Thiblin, Ingemar; Byberg, Liisa; Melhus, Håkan; Lindbäck, Johan; Michaelsson, Karl

2010-10-01

To assess whether higher mortality rates among individuals in motor vehicle crashes in areas with low population density depend on injury type and severity or are related to the performance of emergency medical services (EMS). Prehospital and hospital deaths were studied in a population-based cohort of 41,243 motor vehicle crashes that occurred in Sweden between 1998 and 2004. The final multivariable analysis was restricted to 6884 individuals in motor vehicle crashes, to minimise the effects of confounding factors. Crude mortality rates following motor vehicle crashes were inversely related to regional population density. In regions with low population density, the unadjusted rate ratio for prehospital death was 2.2 (95% CI 1.9 to 2.5) and for hospital death 1.5 (95% CI 1.1 to 1.9), compared with a high-density population. However, after controlling for regional differences in age, gender and the type/severity of injuries among 6884 individuals in motor vehicle crashes, low population density was no longer associated with increased mortality. At 25 years of age, predicted prehospital mortality was 9% lower (95% CI 5% to 12%) in regions with low population density compared with high population density. This difference decreased with increasing age, but was still 3% lower (95% CI 0.5% to 5%) at 65 years of age. The inverse relationship between population density and mortality among individuals in motor vehicle crashes is related to pre-crash factors that influence the type and severity of injuries and not to differences in EMS.

Human influences on trophic cascades along rocky shores

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindberg, D.R.; Estes, J.A.; Warheit, K.I.

1998-01-01

A three-trophic-level interaction among American Black Oystercatchers (Haematopus bachmani), limpets (Lottia spp.), and erect fleshy algae in rocky intertidal communities of central and southern California was documented via manipulative and 'natural' experiments. Removal of the territorial limpet (Lottia gigantea) initially caused large increases in the percent cover of erect fleshy algae, followed by a more gradual increase in density of small limpets (Lottia spp.) and a decline in algal cover. Algal cover increased following the removal of small limpets at the sites from which L. gigantea had been removed earlier, thus demonstrating that the large and small limpets had similar inhibitory effects on plant populations. A comparison of sites with and without oyster-catchers showed that L. gigantea occupied substrate inclinations in proportion to their availability at sites where oystercatchers were rare, whereas the distribution of L. gigantea was skewed toward vertically inclined substrates where oystercatchers were common. Survival rates of limpets translocated to horizontal and vertical substrates were similar in sites lacking oystercatcher predation, but were much lower on horizontal substrates where oystercatchers were common. Our results are consistent with those from several prior studies in demonstrating that shorelines frequented by humans typically lack oystercatchers. Humans also exploit L. gigantea and reduce populations to low densities of small individuals. These findings may explain why the midlittoral zone of rocky intertidal communities in western North America are so often dominated by high population densities of small limpets.

Diet of juvenile burbot and insight on gape limitation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Klein, Zachary B.; Hardy, Ryan S.; Quist, Michael C.

2016-01-01

Throughout much of their distribution, Burbot (Lota lota ) populations are declining or have been extirpated. Burbot in the Kootenai River, Idaho represent one such imperiled population. In an effort to restore Burbot in the Kootenai River, managers have turned to conservation aquaculture. However, no appreciable increase in natural recruitment has been observed in the system. The lack of natural recruitment is believed to be partly due to a deficiency of high-quality prey. As a result, we sought to i) describe the diet of juvenile Burbot, ii) evaluate the influence of Burbot mouth gape on diet and iii) estimate prey availability at release locations. Burbot were stocked into two earthen ponds at the Boundary Creek Wildlife Management Area (BCWMA) and sampled weekly to evaluate diet. Zooplankton were sampled weekly from each pond and from release locations of hatchery-reared Burbot (i.e., Kootenai River, Goat River, Boundary Creek, Deep Creek) to quantify prey availability. Over the course of the study (~3 months), Burbot primarily fed on Cyclopoida. Burbot never appeared to be gape limited and exhibited little variability in the size of zooplankton ingested. Zooplankton densities at stocking locations were relatively low in comparison to BCWMA ponds. Low zooplankton densities at release sites indicate that alternative management actions may need to be considered to enhance Burbot recruitment in the Kootenai River drainage.

Behavioural and physiological effects of population density on domesticated Zebra Finches (Taeniopygia guttata) held in aviaries.

PubMed

Poot, Hanneke; ter Maat, Andries; Trost, Lisa; Schwabl, Ingrid; Jansen, René F; Gahr, Manfred

2012-02-01

Zebra Finches (Taeniopygia guttata) are highly social and monogamous birds that display relatively low levels of aggression and coordinate group life mainly by means of vocal communication. In the wild, small groups may congregate to larger flocks of up to 150-350 birds. Little is known, however, about possible effects of population density on development in captivity. Investigating density effects on physiology and behaviour might be helpful in identifying optimal group size, in order to optimise Zebra Finch wellbeing. A direct effect of population density on development and reproduction was found: birds in lower density conditions produced significantly more and larger (body mass, tarsus length) surviving offspring than birds in high density conditions. Furthermore, offspring in low density aviaries produced slightly longer song motifs and more different syllables than their tutors, whereas offspring in high density aviaries produced shorter motifs and a smaller or similar number of different syllables than their tutors. Aggression levels within the populations were low throughout the experiment, but the number of aggressive interactions was significantly higher in high density aviaries. Baseline corticosterone levels did not differ significantly between high- and low density aviaries for either adult or offspring birds. On day 15 post hatching, brood size and baseline corticosterone levels were positively correlated. On days 60 and 100 post hatching this correlation was no longer present. The results of this study prove that population density affects various aspects of Zebra Finch development, with birds living in low population density conditions having an advantage over those living under higher population density conditions. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Middle East population puzzle.

PubMed

Omran, A R; Roudi, F

1993-07-01

An overview is provided of Middle Eastern countries on the following topics; population change, epidemiological transition theory and 4 patterns of transition in the middle East, transition in causes of death, infant mortality declines, war mortality, fertility, family planning, age and sex composition, ethnicity, educational status, urbanization, labor force, international labor migration, refugees, Jewish immigration, families, marriage patterns, and future growth. The Middle East is geographically defined as Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Gaza and the West Bank, Iran, Turkey, and Israel. The Middle East's population grew very little until 1990 when the population was 43 million. Population was about doubled in the mid-1950s at 80 million. Rapid growth occurred after 1950 with declines in mortality due to widespread disease control and sanitation efforts. Countries are grouped in the following ways: persistent high fertility and declining mortality with low to medium socioeconomic conditions (Jordan, Oman, Syria, Yemen, and the West Bank and Gaza), declining fertility and mortality in intermediate socioeconomic development (Egypt, Lebanon, Turkey, and Iran), high fertility and declining mortality in high socioeconomic conditions (Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates), and low fertility and mortality in average socioeconomic conditions (Israel). As birth and death rates decline, there is an accompanying shift from communicable diseases to degenerative diseases and increases in life expectancy; this pattern is reflected in the available data from Egypt, Kuwait, and Israel. High infant and child mortality tends to remain a problem throughout the Middle East, with the exception of Israel and the Gulf States. War casualties are undetermined, yet have not impeded the fastest growing population growth rate in the world. The average fertility is 5 births/woman by the age of 45. Muslim countries tend to have larger families. Contraceptive use is low in the region, with the exception of Turkey and Egypt and among urban and educated populations. More than 40% of the population is under 15 years of age. The region is about 50% Arabic (140 million). Educational status has increased, particularly for men; the lowest literacy rates for women are in Yemen and Egypt. The largest countries are Iran, Turkey, and Egypt.

Effects of subsidized predators, resource variability, and human population density on desert tortoise populations in the Mojave Desert, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esque, Todd C.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Drake, K. Kristina; Walde, Andrew D.; Berry, Kristin H.; Averill-Murray, Roy C.; Woodman, A. Peter; Boarman, William I.; Medica, Phil A.; Mack, Jeremy S.; Heaton, Jill S.

2010-01-01

Understanding predator–prey relationships can be pivotal in the conservation of species. For 2 decades, desert tortoise Gopherus agassizii populations have declined, yet quantitative evidence regarding the causes of declines is scarce. In 2005, Ft. Irwin National Training Center, California, USA, implemented a translocation project including 2 yr of baseline monitoring of desert tortoises. Unusually high predation on tortoises was observed after translocation occurred. We conducted a retrospective analysis of predation and found that translocation did not affect the probability of predation: translocated, resident, and control tortoises all had similar levels of predation. However, predation rates were higher near human population concentrations, at lower elevation sites, and for smaller tortoises and females. Furthermore, high mortality rates were not limited to the National Training Center. In 2008, elevated mortality (as high as 43%) occurred throughout the listed range of the desert tortoise. Although no temporal prey base data are available for analysis from any of the study sites, we hypothesize that low population levels of typical coyote Canis latrans prey (i.e. jackrabbits Lepus californicus and other small animals) due to drought conditions influenced high predation rates in previous years. Predation may have been exacerbated in areas with high levels of subsidized predators. Many historical reports of increased predation, and our observation of a range-wide pattern, may indicate that high predation rates are more common than generally considered and may impact recovery of the desert tortoise throughout its range.

Microsatellite Analysis of Museum Specimens Reveals Historical Differences in Genetic Diversity between Declining and More Stable Bombus Species

PubMed Central

Maebe, Kevin; Meeus, Ivan; Ganne, Maarten; De Meulemeester, Thibaut; Biesmeijer, Koos; Smagghe, Guy

2015-01-01

Worldwide most pollinators, e.g. bumblebees, are undergoing global declines. Loss of genetic diversity can play an essential role in these observed declines. In this paper, we investigated the level of genetic diversity of seven declining Bombus species and four more stable species with the use of microsatellite loci. Hereto we genotyped a unique collection of museum specimens. Specimens were collected between 1918 and 1926, in 6 provinces of the Netherlands which allowed us to make interspecific comparisons of genetic diversity. For the stable species B. pascuorum, we also selected populations from two additional time periods: 1949–1955 and 1975–1990. The genetic diversity and population structure in B. pascuorum remained constant over the three time periods. However, populations of declining bumblebee species showed a significantly lower genetic diversity than co-occurring stable species before their major declines. This historical difference indicates that the repeatedly observed reduced genetic diversity in recent populations of declining bumblebee species is not caused solely by the decline itself. The historically low genetic diversity in the declined species may be due to the fact that these species were already rare, making them more vulnerable to the major drivers of bumblebee decline. PMID:26061732

Why is the age-standardized incidence of low-trauma fractures rising in many elderly populations?

PubMed

Kannus, Pekka; Niemi, Seppo; Parkkari, Jari; Palvanen, Mika; Heinonen, Ari; Sievänen, Harri; Järvinen, Teppo; Khan, Karim; Järvinen, Markku

2002-08-01

Low-trauma fractures of elderly people are a major public health burden worldwide, and as the number and mean age of older adults in the population continue to increase, the number of fractures is also likely to increase. Epidemiologically, however, an additional concern is that, for unknown reasons, the age-standardized incidence (average individual risk) of fracture has also risen in many populations during the recent decades. Possible reasons for this rise include a birth cohort effect, deterioration in the average bone strength by time, and increased average risk of (serious) falls. Literature provides evidence that the rise is not due to a birth cohort effect, whereas no study shows whether bone fragility has increased during this relatively short period of time. This osteoporosis hypothesis could, however, be tested if researchers would now repeat the population measurements of bone mass and density that were made in the late 1980s and the 1990s. If such studies proved that women's and men's age-standardized mean values of bone mass and density have declined over time, the osteoporosis hypothesis would receive scientific support. The third explanation is based on the hypothesis that the number and/or severity of falls has risen in elderly populations during the recent decades. Although no study has directly tested this hypothesis, a great deal of indirect epidemiologic evidence supports this contention. For example, the age-standardized incidence of fall-induced severe head injuries, bruises and contusions, and joint distortions and dislocations has increased among elderly people similarly to the low-trauma fractures. The fall hypothesis could also be tested in the coming years because the 1990s saw many research teams reporting age- and sex-specific incidences of falling for elderly populations, and the same could be done now to provide data comparing the current incidence rates of falls with the earlier ones.

Limits to Bureaucratic Growth: The Density Dependence of Organizational Rule Births.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schulz, Martin

1998-01-01

Uses a population-ecology approach to examine whether bureaucratic rules breed more rules. Tests hypotheses about rule births with time-series data on rule production in a large United States research university. Results show that the rate of rule production declines with the number of rules in a rule population over time. Rules inhibit…

Fine-scale spatial genetic structure of common and declining bumble bees across an agricultural landscape.

PubMed

Dreier, Stephanie; Redhead, John W; Warren, Ian A; Bourke, Andrew F G; Heard, Matthew S; Jordan, William C; Sumner, Seirian; Wang, Jinliang; Carvell, Claire

2014-07-01

Land-use changes have threatened populations of many insect pollinators, including bumble bees. Patterns of dispersal and gene flow are key determinants of species' ability to respond to land-use change, but have been little investigated at a fine scale (<10 km) in bumble bees. Using microsatellite markers, we determined the fine-scale spatial genetic structure of populations of four common Bombus species (B. terrestris, B. lapidarius, B. pascuorum and B. hortorum) and one declining species (B. ruderatus) in an agricultural landscape in Southern England, UK. The study landscape contained sown flower patches representing agri-environment options for pollinators. We found that, as expected, the B. ruderatus population was characterized by relatively low heterozygosity, number of alleles and colony density. Across all species, inbreeding was absent or present but weak (FIS  = 0.01-0.02). Using queen genotypes reconstructed from worker sibships and colony locations estimated from the positions of workers within these sibships, we found that significant isolation by distance was absent in B. lapidarius, B. hortorum and B. ruderatus. In B. terrestris and B. pascuorum, it was present but weak; for example, in these two species, expected relatedness of queens founding colonies 1 m apart was 0.02. These results show that bumble bee populations exhibit low levels of spatial genetic structure at fine spatial scales, most likely because of ongoing gene flow via widespread queen dispersal. In addition, the results demonstrate the potential for agri-environment scheme conservation measures to facilitate fine-scale gene flow by creating a more even distribution of suitable habitats across landscapes. © 2014 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Population-Based Approach to Restore and Manage Ruppia Maritima (Wigeongrass) in the Highly Variable Everglades-Florida Bay Ecotone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strazisar, T. M.; Koch, M.; Madden, C. J.

2016-02-01

Seagrasses and submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) continue to decline globally from human-induced disturbance and habitat loss in estuarine and coastal ecosystems. The SAV Ruppia maritima historically created critical habitat at the Everglades-Florida Bay ecotone, but hydrological modifications and lower freshwater flows have resulted in significant declines in recent decades. We used a population-based approach to examine factors controlling Ruppia presence and abundance at the ecotone to expand the scientific base for management and restoration of SAV species in highly variable environments and examine factors required for Ruppia restoration in the Everglades. Life history transitions from seed through sexual reproduction were established under a range of field conditions critical to seagrass and SAV persistence, including salinity, temperature, light, sediment nutrients (P) and competitor SAV. We found multiple constraints to Ruppia life history development, including an ephemeral seed bank, low rates of successful germination and seedling survival and clonal reproduction limited by variable salinity, nutrients, light and competition with the macroalga Chara hornemannii. Because of low survival rates and limited clonal reproduction, Ruppia at the Evergaldes ecotone currently depends on high rates of viable seed production. However, development of large reproductive meadows requires high vegetative shoot densities. Thus, Everglades restoration should establish lower salinities to create higher seedling and adult survival and clonal reproduction to support successful sexual reproduction that can build up the seed bank for years when adult survival is limited. This population-based data from field experiments and surveys is being incorporated into a seagrass model to enable forecasting of population sustainability and evaluate Everglades restoration targets which includes restoring Ruppia to the southern Everglades-Florida Bay ecotone.

Genetic Considerations for the Restoration of Smooth Cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora) Within Its Native Range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Travis, Steven E.; Proffitt, C. Edward; Edwards, Keith R.

2006-01-01

In order to remain viable over many generations, plant populations require the ability to respond adaptively to a changing environment. Such adaptive potential is directly controlled by underlying genetic variation, which can be measured in terms of both heterozygosity at the individual level and clonal, or genotypic diversity at the population level. This report summarizes research relating to the importance of genetic diversity in the restoration of salt marsh smooth cordgrass, Spartina alterniflora, a dominant member of low elevation intertidal marshes throughout the northern Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Coasts of North America. Recent research has indicated that S. alterniflora is a partially clonal species characterized by the recruitment of seedlings exclusively during the initial colonization phase of population establishment. A major consequence of this finding is that clonal diversity generally peaks rather early in the development of a restored marsh, depending on the rate of natural immigration and/or the clonal diversity of planting units, and then undergoes a steady decline over geological time spans because of stochastic mortality and intraspecific competition. Low levels of clonal diversity resulting from restricted immigration or clonally depauperate planting materials in turn places strict limits on opportunities for outcrossing in a species known to suffer from severe inbreeding depression. Low clonal diversity may further lead to declining levels of heterozyosity of individual clones, which directly affects competitive ability. In addition, the planting of genetically diverse plant materials should take into account the genetic and adaptive differentiation that takes place when plant populations are widely separated in space and/or dwell under varying sets of environmental conditions. Thus, steps should be taken to ensure that S. alterniflora clones developed for restorative plantings are both genetically diverse and sufficiently pre-adapted to environmental conditions at the proposed restoration site. This can be achieved by growing plant materials collected from local sources and by either taking care to maintain relatively high levels of clonal diversity or by planting clones at sufficiently low densities that they will not quickly grow to monopolize a restoration site without first producing several generations of sexual recruits through crosses with nearby native populations.

Decreasing annual nest counts in a globally important loggerhead sea turtle population.

PubMed

Witherington, Blair; Kubilis, Paul; Brost, Beth; Meylan, Anne

2009-01-01

The loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nests on sand beaches, has both oceanic and neritic life stages, and migrates internationally. We analyzed an 18-year time series of Index Nesting Beach Survey (Index) nest-count data to describe spatial and temporal trends in loggerhead nesting on Florida (USA) beaches. The Index data were highly resolved: 368 fixed zones (mean length 0.88 km) were surveyed daily during annual 109-day survey seasons. Spatial and seasonal coverage averaged 69% of estimated total nesting by loggerheads in the state. We carried out trend analyses on both annual survey-region nest-count totals (N = 18) and annual zone-level nest densities (N = 18 x 368 = 6624). In both analyses, negative binomial regression models were used to fit restricted cubic spline curves to aggregated nest counts. Between 1989 and 2006, loggerhead nest counts on Florida Index beaches increased and then declined, with a net decrease over the 18-year period. This pattern was evident in both a trend model of annual survey-region nest-count totals and a mixed-effect, "single-region" trend model of annual zone-level nest densities that took into account both spatial and temporal correlation between counts. We also saw this pattern in a zone-level model that allowed trend line shapes to vary between six coastal subregions. Annual mean zone-level nest density declined significantly (-28%; 95% CI: -34% to -21%) between 1989 and 2006 and declined steeply (-43%; 95% CI: -48% to -39%) during 1998-2006. Rates of change in annual mean nest density varied more between coastal subregions during the "mostly increasing" period prior to 1998 than during the "steeply declining" period after 1998. The excellent fits (observed vs. expected count R2 > 0.91) of the mixed-effect zone-level models confirmed the presence of strong, positive, within-zone autocorrelation (R > 0.93) between annual counts, indicating a remarkable year-to-year consistency in the longshore spatial distribution of nests over the survey region. We argue that the decline in annual loggerhead nest counts in peninsular Florida can best be explained by a decline in the number of adult female loggerheads in the population. Causes of this decline are explored.

Characteristics of the Low-Income Population: 1972. Current Population Reports, Consumer Income, Series P-60, No. 88, June 1973 (Advance Data From March 1973 Current Population Survey).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bureau of the Census (DOC), Suitland, MD. Population Div.

This publication of advance data from the March 1973 Current Population Survey relates to consumer income: characteristics of the low-income population, 1972. About 24.5 million were below the low-income level in 1972, this figure being 1.1 million or 4.3 percent below the 1971 figure. The number of low-income whites declined by about 9 percent in…

Sugarcane Aphid Population Growth, Plant Injury, and Natural Enemies on Selected Grain Sorghum Hybrids in Texas and Louisiana.

PubMed

Brewer, Michael J; Gordy, John W; Kerns, David L; Woolley, James B; Rooney, William L; Bowling, Robert D

2017-10-01

In response to the 2013 outbreak of sugarcane aphid, Melanaphis sacchari (Zehntner) (Hemiptera: Aphididae), on sorghum, Sorghum bicolor (L.), in North America, experiments were conducted at three southern U.S. grain sorghum production locations (Corpus Christi, TX; Winnsboro, LA; Rosenberg, TX). The objectives were to authenticate yield decline on susceptible hybrids (2014 and 2015) and to measure aphid population growth and natural enemy prevalence on susceptible and resistant hybrids with similar genetic background (2014). Yield decline on susceptible hybrids (Tx 2752/Tx430 and DKS53-67) was more substantial when aphid population growth accelerated quickly and peaked above 300 aphids per leaf (50 to nearly 100% yield decline). Location and year variation in maximum aphid density and cumulative aphid-days was high, with doubling time values on the susceptible hybrids ranging between 3.9 and 7.9 d. On resistant Tx2752/Tx2783, leaf injury and yield decline were not seen or less severe than on its paired susceptible Tx2752/Tx430. Aphids declined on Tx2752/Tx2783 after initial colony establishment (Corpus Christi) or took about 60% longer to double in population size when compared with Tx2572/Tx430 (Winnsboro). The predominant natural enemy taxa were aphelinid mummies (Hymenoptera: Aphelinidae), ladybird beetles (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), and sryphid flies (Diptera: Syrphidae), and they were more prevalent during flowering than prior to flowering. They were generally responsive to changes in aphid density of both susceptible and resistant hybrids, but variability points to need for further study. In future research, full season observations should continue as well as more detailed study of potential compatibility of sorghum resistance and biological control. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Population distribution, density and habitat preference of the Cerulean Warbler (Setophaga cerulea) in the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area

Treesearch

Shannon Curley; Terry Master; Gregory George

2012-01-01

The breeding range of the Cerulean Warbler has expanded into second-growth forest and converted agricultural land in the northeastern United States where, according to the North American Breeding Bird Survey, the population is increasing. Despite this expansion in one part of its range, the population as a whole is still in rapid decline implying that habitat quality...

Proteomic Markers of Functional Sperm Population in Bovines: Comparison of Low- and High-Density Spermatozoa Following Cryopreservation.

PubMed

D'Amours, Olivier; Frenette, Gilles; Bourassa, Sylvie; Calvo, Ézéchiel; Blondin, Patrick; Sullivan, Robert

2018-01-05

Mammalian semen contains a heterogeneous population of sperm cells. This heterogeneity results from variability in the complex processes of cell differentiation in the testis, biochemical modifications undergone by spermatozoa during transit along the male reproductive tract, interactions with secretions from accessory sex glands at ejaculation, and, in the context of reproductive technologies, in the ability of ejaculated spermatozoa to resist damage associated with freeze-thaw procedures. When submitted to density gradient centrifugation, ejaculated spermatozoa distribute themselves into two distinct populations: a low-density population characterized by low motility parameters, and a high-density population with high motility characteristics. To understand the origin of ejaculated spermatozoa heterogeneity, cryopreserved semen samples from bulls used by the artificial insemination (A.I.) industry were submitted to Percoll gradient centrifugation. Proteins from low and high density spermatozoa were then extracted with sodium deoxycholate and submitted to proteomic analysis using iTRAQ (isobaric tag for relative and absolute quantitation) methodologies. Quantification of selected sperm proteins was confirmed by multiple reaction monitoring (MRM). Overall, 31 different proteins were more abundant in low-density spermatozoa, while 80 different proteins were more abundant in the high-density subpopulation. Proteins enriched in high-density spermatozoa were markers of sperm functionality such as the glycolytic process, binding to the egg zona pellucida, and motility. Low-density spermatozoa were not solely characterized by loss of proteins and their associated functions. Chaperonin-containing TCP1s and chaperones are hallmarks of the low-density subpopulation. iTRAQ analysis revealed that other proteins such as binder of sperm proteins, histone, GPX5, ELSPBP1, and clusterin are overexpressed in low-density spermatozoa suggesting that these proteins represent defects occurring at different steps during the sperm journey. These differences contribute to the sperm cell heterogeneity present in mammalian semen.

Mountain gorilla genomes reveal the impact of long-term population decline and inbreeding.

PubMed

Xue, Yali; Prado-Martinez, Javier; Sudmant, Peter H; Narasimhan, Vagheesh; Ayub, Qasim; Szpak, Michal; Frandsen, Peter; Chen, Yuan; Yngvadottir, Bryndis; Cooper, David N; de Manuel, Marc; Hernandez-Rodriguez, Jessica; Lobon, Irene; Siegismund, Hans R; Pagani, Luca; Quail, Michael A; Hvilsom, Christina; Mudakikwa, Antoine; Eichler, Evan E; Cranfield, Michael R; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Tyler-Smith, Chris; Scally, Aylwyn

2015-04-10

Mountain gorillas are an endangered great ape subspecies and a prominent focus for conservation, yet we know little about their genomic diversity and evolutionary past. We sequenced whole genomes from multiple wild individuals and compared the genomes of all four Gorilla subspecies. We found that the two eastern subspecies have experienced a prolonged population decline over the past 100,000 years, resulting in very low genetic diversity and an increased overall burden of deleterious variation. A further recent decline in the mountain gorilla population has led to extensive inbreeding, such that individuals are typically homozygous at 34% of their sequence, leading to the purging of severely deleterious recessive mutations from the population. We discuss the causes of their decline and the consequences for their future survival. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Influence of body condition on the population dynamics of Atlantic salmon with consideration of the potential impact of sea lice.

PubMed

Susdorf, R; Salama, N K G; Lusseau, D

2017-11-21

Atlantic salmon Salmo salar is an iconic species of high conservation and economic importance. At sea, individuals typically are subject to sea lice infestation, which can have detrimental effects on their host. Over recent decades, the body condition and marine survival in NE Atlantic stocks have generally decreased, reflected in fewer adults returning to rivers, which is partly attributable to sea lice. We developed a deterministic stage-structured population model to assess condition-mediated population dynamics resulting in changing fecundity, age at sexual maturation and marine survival rate. The model is parameterized using data from the North Esk system, north-east Scotland. Both constant and density-dependent juvenile survival rates are considered. We show that even small sea lice-mediated changes in mean body condition of MSW can cause substantial population declines, whereas 1SW condition is less influential. Density dependence alleviates the condition-mediated population effect. The resilience of the population to demographic perturbations declines as adult condition is reduced. Indirect demographic changes in salmonid life-history traits (e.g., body condition) are often considered unimportant for population trajectory. The model shows that Atlantic salmon population dynamics can be highly responsive to sea lice-mediated effects on adult body condition, thus highlighting the importance of non-lethal parasitic long-term effects. © 2017 The Authors Journal of Fish Diseases Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Population density predicts outcome from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Victoria, Australia.

PubMed

Nehme, Ziad; Andrew, Emily; Cameron, Peter A; Bray, Janet E; Bernard, Stephen A; Meredith, Ian T; Smith, Karen

2014-05-05

To examine the impact of population density on incidence and outcome of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). Data were extracted from the Victorian Ambulance Cardiac Arrest Registry for all adult OHCA cases of presumed cardiac aetiology attended by the emergency medical service (EMS) between 1 January 2003 and 31 December 2011. Cases were allocated into one of five population density groups according to their statistical local area: very low density (≤ 10 people/km(2)), low density (11-200 people/km(2)), medium density (201-1000 people/km(2)), high density (1001-3000 people/km(2)), and very high density (> 3000 people/km(2)). Survival to hospital and survival to hospital discharge. The EMS attended 27 705 adult presumed cardiac OHCA cases across 204 Victorian regions. In 12 007 of these (43.3%), resuscitation was attempted by the EMS. Incidence was lower and arrest characteristics were consistently less favourable for lower population density groups. Survival outcomes, including return of spontaneous circulation, survival to hospital and survival to hospital discharge, were significantly poorer in less densely populated groups (P < 0.001 for all comparisons). When compared with very low density populations, the risk-adjusted odds ratios of surviving to hospital discharge were: low density, 1.88 (95% CI, 1.15-3.07); medium density, 2.49 (95% CI, 1.55-4.02); high density, 3.47 (95% CI, 2.20-5.48) and very high density, 4.32 (95% CI, 2.67-6.99). Population density is independently associated with survival after OHCA, and significant variation in the incidence and characteristics of these events are observed across the state.

An adaptable but threatened big cat: density, diet and prey selection of the Indochinese leopard (Panthera pardus delacouri) in eastern Cambodia.

PubMed

Rostro-García, Susana; Kamler, Jan F; Crouthers, Rachel; Sopheak, Keo; Prum, Sovanna; In, Visattha; Pin, Chanratana; Caragiulo, Anthony; Macdonald, David W

2018-02-01

We studied the Indochinese leopard ( Panthera pardus delacouri ) in eastern Cambodia, in one of the few potentially remaining viable populations in Southeast Asia. The aims were to determine the: (i) current leopard density in Srepok Wildlife Sanctuary (SWS) and (ii) diet, prey selection and predation impact of leopard in SWS. The density, estimated using spatially explicit capture-recapture models, was 1.0 leopard/100 km 2 , 72% lower than an estimate from 2009 at the same site, and one of the lowest densities ever reported in Asia. Dietary analysis of 73 DNA confirmed scats showed leopard consumed 13 prey species, although ungulates comprised 87% of the biomass consumed (BC). The overall main prey (42% BC) was banteng ( Bos javanicus ), making this the only known leopard population whose main prey had adult weight greater than 500 kg. Consumption of wild pig ( Sus scrofa ) was also one of the highest ever reported (22% BC), indicating leopard consistently predated on ungulates with some of the largest adult weights in SWS. There were important differences in diet and prey selection between sexes, as males consumed mostly banteng (62% BC) in proportion to availability, but few muntjac ( Muntiacus vaginalis ; 7% BC), whereas females selectively consumed muntjac (56% BC) and avoided banteng (less than 1% BC). Predation impact was low (0.5-3.2% of populations) for the three ungulate species consumed. We conclude that the Indochinese leopard is an important apex predator in SWS, but this unique population is declining at an alarming rate and will soon be eradicated unless effective protection is provided.

An adaptable but threatened big cat: density, diet and prey selection of the Indochinese leopard (Panthera pardus delacouri) in eastern Cambodia

PubMed Central

Kamler, Jan F.; Crouthers, Rachel; Sopheak, Keo; Prum, Sovanna; In, Visattha; Pin, Chanratana; Caragiulo, Anthony; Macdonald, David W.

2018-01-01

We studied the Indochinese leopard (Panthera pardus delacouri) in eastern Cambodia, in one of the few potentially remaining viable populations in Southeast Asia. The aims were to determine the: (i) current leopard density in Srepok Wildlife Sanctuary (SWS) and (ii) diet, prey selection and predation impact of leopard in SWS. The density, estimated using spatially explicit capture–recapture models, was 1.0 leopard/100 km2, 72% lower than an estimate from 2009 at the same site, and one of the lowest densities ever reported in Asia. Dietary analysis of 73 DNA confirmed scats showed leopard consumed 13 prey species, although ungulates comprised 87% of the biomass consumed (BC). The overall main prey (42% BC) was banteng (Bos javanicus), making this the only known leopard population whose main prey had adult weight greater than 500 kg. Consumption of wild pig (Sus scrofa) was also one of the highest ever reported (22% BC), indicating leopard consistently predated on ungulates with some of the largest adult weights in SWS. There were important differences in diet and prey selection between sexes, as males consumed mostly banteng (62% BC) in proportion to availability, but few muntjac (Muntiacus vaginalis; 7% BC), whereas females selectively consumed muntjac (56% BC) and avoided banteng (less than 1% BC). Predation impact was low (0.5–3.2% of populations) for the three ungulate species consumed. We conclude that the Indochinese leopard is an important apex predator in SWS, but this unique population is declining at an alarming rate and will soon be eradicated unless effective protection is provided. PMID:29515839

Marriage and fertility in the developed countries.

PubMed

Westoff, C F

1978-12-01

Most developed countries have reached zero population growth or less and, while population projections have often proved badly off-target, it seems that currently low fertility levels are the result of a long-term trend, which was interrupted in the last 100 years only by the still-unexplained postwar baby boom, and which will probably continue. The declining trend has accompanied economic development and modernization, which have transformed the economic value of children, making them a drain on resources rather than a source of income. The concomitant social changes seem largely irreversible: urban economy, the decline in traditional authority, universal, prolonged education, equality of women, low infant mortality, high consumer demands and sophisticated birth control technology are all here to stay. The theory that fertility exhibits a cyclical pattern based on people's perception of their degree of economic and social opportunity ignores the other elements affecting fertility behavior, especially the radical change in the status and expectations of women. Several trends in marriage and reproductive behavior in the U.S., Denmark and Sweden reinforce the presumption that fertility will remain low: declining number of marriages; postponement of marriage; increased tendency for unmarried couples to live together; instability of marriage shown by high divorce rates and declining remarriage rates; and increasing economic activity by women. The traditional institution of marriage is losing its economic, sexual, sociological and parenting rationales. Thus, declining fertility is both cause and consequence of changes in marriage. In Europe, where the decline is more advanced than in the U.S., governments are concerned that population growth will be too low and have instituted social welfare measures to induce and facilitate childbearing and childrearing. As women become more career-oriented, greater incentives will have to be provided. Manipulating immigration quotas may solve the short-term numbers problem but creates other social problems. Serious thought must be given to the effects of negative population growth.

Use of burrow entrances to indicate densities of Townsend's ground squirrels

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Horne, Beatrice; Schooley, Robert L.; Knick, Steven T.; Olson, G.S.; Burnham, K.P.

1997-01-01

Counts of burrow entrances have been positively correlated with densities of semi-fossorial rodents and used as an index of densities. We evaluated their effectiveness in indexing densities of Townsend's ground squirrels (Spermophilus townsendii) in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area (SRBOPNCA), Idaho, by comparing burrow entrance densities to densities of ground squirrels estimated from livetrapping in 2 consecutive years over which squirrel populations declined by >75%. We did not detect a consistent relation between burrow entrance counts and ground squirrel density estimates within or among habitat types. Scatter plots indicated that burrow entrances had little predictive power at intermediate densities. Burrow entrance counts did not reflect the magnitude of a between-year density decline. Repeated counts of entrances late in the squirrels' active season varied in a manner that would be difficult to use for calibration of transects sampled only once during this period. Annual persistence of burrow entrances varied between habitats. Trained observers were inconsistent in assigning active-inactive status to entrances. We recommend that burrow entrance counts not be used as measures or indices of ground squirrel densities in shrubsteppe habitats, and that the method be verified thoroughly before being used in other habitats.

Population regulation in a changing environment: Long-term changes in growth, condition and survival of sprat, Sprattus sprattus L. in the Bristol Channel, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henderson, Peter A.; Henderson, Rowena C.

2017-02-01

Sprat, Sprattus sprattus, is the dominant pelagic species in British inshore and estuarine waters. Within the Bristol Channel the population is almost totally composed of fish < 3 years old with the adults overwintering in Bridgwater Bay. Sprat follow regular seasonal migrations and occasionally form huge aggregations which together generate considerable between sample variability. Using a 36-year monthly time series collected in the Bristol Channel since 1980, together with two periods of intensive daily and weekly sampling, sprat growth is shown to have declined almost linearly over the last 36 years coincident with increasing late summer-autumn seawater temperatures. Longevity has also declined, with age 3 + sprat > 140 mm standard length lost to the population by 1999. Further, adult condition, measured as the average weight of a 103 mm standard length adult, declined rapidly from 13.7 g in 2007 to 9 g in 2011. Despite these changes, which would have reduced age-specific fecundity, a sign-rank test showed abundance of adult sprat has shown no long-term trend and Bulmer's test indicates density-dependent regulation is operating. While sprat recruitment is shown to be responding to the sunspot cycle, the North Atlantic Oscillation and sea water temperature, the impact of these variables on adult population density is damped because of density-dependent regulation. The result is that sprat respond to environmental change with large changes in their growth and condition, but the adult abundance is constrained and shows no long-term trend. Recruitment was modelled by combining a Ricker curve with terms for the response of sprat to solar activity, the North Atlantic Oscillation and spring temperature. It is shown that the stock-recruitment relationship does not form a simple curve, but is bounded within a region in which the upper and lower constraints are defined by environmental conditions. Within this bounded region the population trajectory under differing environmental regimes can be predicted.

A projection of lesser prairie chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) populations range-wide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cummings, Jonathan W.; Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Smith, David R.; Nichols, Clay T.; Allan, Nathan L.; O'Meilia, Chris M.

2017-08-09

We built a population viability analysis (PVA) model to predict future population status of the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus, LEPC) in four ecoregions across the species’ range. The model results will be used in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's (FWS) Species Status Assessment (SSA) for the LEPC. Our stochastic projection model combined demographic rate estimates from previously published literature with demographic rate estimates that integrate the influence of climate conditions. This LEPC PVA projects declining populations with estimated population growth rates well below 1 in each ecoregion regardless of habitat or climate change. These results are consistent with estimates of LEPC population growth rates derived from other demographic process models. Although the absolute magnitude of the decline is unlikely to be as low as modeling tools indicate, several different lines of evidence suggest LEPC populations are declining.

Resource requirements of the Pacific leatherback turtle population.

PubMed

Jones, T Todd; Bostrom, Brian L; Hastings, Mervin D; Van Houtan, Kyle S; Pauly, Daniel; Jones, David R

2012-01-01

The Pacific population of leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) has drastically declined in the last 25 years. This decline has been linked to incidental capture by fisheries, egg and meat harvesting, and recently, to climate variability and resource limitation. Here we couple growth rates with feeding experiments and food intake functions to estimate daily energy requirements of leatherbacks throughout their development. We then estimate mortality rates from available data, enabling us to raise food intake (energy requirements) of the individual to the population level. We place energy requirements in context of available resources (i.e., gelatinous zooplankton abundance). Estimated consumption rates suggest that a single leatherback will eat upward of 1000 metric tonnes (t) of jellyfish in its lifetime (range 924-1112) with the Pacific population consuming 2.1×10(6) t of jellyfish annually (range 1.0-3.7×10(6)) equivalent to 4.2×10(8) megajoules (MJ) (range 2.0-7.4×10(8)). Model estimates suggest 2-7 yr-old juveniles comprise the majority of the Pacific leatherback population biomass and account for most of the jellyfish consumption (1.1×10(6) t of jellyfish or 2.2×10(8) MJ per year). Leatherbacks are large gelatinous zooplanktivores with consumption to biomass ratios of 96 (up to 192 if feeding strictly on low energy density Cnidarians); they, therefore, have a large capacity to impact gelatinous zooplankton landscapes. Understanding the leatherback's needs for gelatinous zooplankton, versus the availability of these resources, can help us better assess population trends and the influence of climate induced resource limitations to reproductive output.

Resource Requirements of the Pacific Leatherback Turtle Population

PubMed Central

Jones, T. Todd; Bostrom, Brian L.; Hastings, Mervin D.; Van Houtan, Kyle S.; Pauly, Daniel; Jones, David R.

2012-01-01

The Pacific population of leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) has drastically declined in the last 25 years. This decline has been linked to incidental capture by fisheries, egg and meat harvesting, and recently, to climate variability and resource limitation. Here we couple growth rates with feeding experiments and food intake functions to estimate daily energy requirements of leatherbacks throughout their development. We then estimate mortality rates from available data, enabling us to raise food intake (energy requirements) of the individual to the population level. We place energy requirements in context of available resources (i.e., gelatinous zooplankton abundance). Estimated consumption rates suggest that a single leatherback will eat upward of 1000 metric tonnes (t) of jellyfish in its lifetime (range 924–1112) with the Pacific population consuming 2.1×106 t of jellyfish annually (range 1.0–3.7×106) equivalent to 4.2×108 megajoules (MJ) (range 2.0–7.4×108). Model estimates suggest 2–7 yr-old juveniles comprise the majority of the Pacific leatherback population biomass and account for most of the jellyfish consumption (1.1×106 t of jellyfish or 2.2×108 MJ per year). Leatherbacks are large gelatinous zooplanktivores with consumption to biomass ratios of 96 (up to 192 if feeding strictly on low energy density Cnidarians); they, therefore, have a large capacity to impact gelatinous zooplankton landscapes. Understanding the leatherback's needs for gelatinous zooplankton, versus the availability of these resources, can help us better assess population trends and the influence of climate induced resource limitations to reproductive output. PMID:23071518

Presence of the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in threatened corroboree frog populations in the Australian Alps.

PubMed

Hunter, David A; Speare, Rick; Marantelli, Gerry; Mendez, Diana; Pietsch, Rod; Osborne, Will

2010-11-01

Since the early 1980s, the southern corroboree frog Pseudophryne corroboree and northern corroboree frog P. pengilleyi have been in a state of decline from their sub-alpine and high montane bog environments on the southern tablelands of New South Wales, Australia. To date, there has been no adequate explanation as to what is causing the decline of these species. We investigated the possibility that a pathogen associated with other recent frog declines in Australia, the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, may have been implicated in the decline of the corroboree frogs. We used histology of toe material and real-time PCR of skin swabs to investigate the presence and infection rates with B. dendrobatidis in historic and extant populations of both corroboree frog species. Using histology, we did not detect any B. dendrobatidis infections in corroboree frog populations prior to their decline. However, using the same technique, high rates of infection were observed in populations of both species after the onset of substantial population declines. The real-time PCR screening of skin swabs identified high overall infection rates in extant populations of P. corroboree (between 44 and 59%), while significantly lower rates of infection were observed in low-altitude P. pengilleyi populations (14%). These results suggest that the initial and continued decline of the corroboree frogs may well be attributed to the emergence of B. dendrobatidis in populations of these species.

Decadal declines in avian herbivore reproduction: density-dependent nutrition and phenological mismatch in the Arctic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Megan V.; Alisaukas, Ray T.; Douglas, David C.; Kellett, Dana K.

2017-01-01

A full understanding of population dynamics depends not only on estimation of mechanistic contributions of recruitment and survival, but also knowledge about the ecological processes that drive each of these vital rates. The process of recruitment in particular may be protracted over several years, and can depend on numerous ecological complexities until sexually mature adulthood is attained. We addressed long-term declines (23 breeding seasons, 1992–2014) in the per capita production of young by both Ross's Geese (Chen rossii) and Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) nesting at Karrak Lake in Canada's central Arctic. During this period, there was a contemporaneous increase from 0.4 to 1.1 million adults nesting at this colony. We evaluated whether (1) density-dependent nutritional deficiencies of pre-breeding females or (2) phenological mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality, inferred from NDVI on the brood-rearing areas, may have been behind decadal declines in the per capita production of goslings. We found that, in years when pre-breeding females arrived to the nesting grounds with diminished nutrient reserves, the proportional composition of young during brood-rearing was reduced for both species. Furthermore, increased mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality contributed additively to further declines in gosling production, in addition to declines caused by delayed nesting with associated subsequent negative effects on clutch size and nest success. The degree of mismatch increased over the course of our study because of advanced vegetation phenology without a corresponding advance in Goose nesting phenology. Vegetation phenology was significantly earlier in years with warm surface air temperatures measured in spring (i.e., 25 May–30 June). We suggest that both increased phenological mismatch and reduced nutritional condition of arriving females were behind declines in population-level recruitment, leading to the recent attenuation in population growth of Snow Geese.

Decadal declines in avian herbivore reproduction: density-dependent nutrition and phenological mismatch in the Arctic.

PubMed

Ross, Megan V; Alisauskas, Ray T; Douglas, David C; Kellett, Dana K

2017-07-01

A full understanding of population dynamics depends not only on estimation of mechanistic contributions of recruitment and survival, but also knowledge about the ecological processes that drive each of these vital rates. The process of recruitment in particular may be protracted over several years, and can depend on numerous ecological complexities until sexually mature adulthood is attained. We addressed long-term declines (23 breeding seasons, 1992-2014) in the per capita production of young by both Ross's Geese (Chen rossii) and Lesser Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens caerulescens) nesting at Karrak Lake in Canada's central Arctic. During this period, there was a contemporaneous increase from 0.4 to 1.1 million adults nesting at this colony. We evaluated whether (1) density-dependent nutritional deficiencies of pre-breeding females or (2) phenological mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality, inferred from NDVI on the brood-rearing areas, may have been behind decadal declines in the per capita production of goslings. We found that, in years when pre-breeding females arrived to the nesting grounds with diminished nutrient reserves, the proportional composition of young during brood-rearing was reduced for both species. Furthermore, increased mismatch between peak gosling hatch and peak forage quality contributed additively to further declines in gosling production, in addition to declines caused by delayed nesting with associated subsequent negative effects on clutch size and nest success. The degree of mismatch increased over the course of our study because of advanced vegetation phenology without a corresponding advance in Goose nesting phenology. Vegetation phenology was significantly earlier in years with warm surface air temperatures measured in spring (i.e., 25 May-30 June). We suggest that both increased phenological mismatch and reduced nutritional condition of arriving females were behind declines in population-level recruitment, leading to the recent attenuation in population growth of Snow Geese. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Early signs of recovery of Acropora palmata in St. John, US Virgin Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muller, E.M.; Rogers, Caroline S.; van Woesik, R.

2014-01-01

Since the 1980s, diseases have caused significant declines in the population of the threatened Caribbean coral Acropora palmata. Yet it is largely unknown whether the population densities have recovered from these declines and whether there have been any recent shifts in size-frequency distributions toward large colonies. It is also unknown whether colony size influences the risk of disease infection, the most common stressor affecting this species. To address these unknowns, we examined A. palmata colonies at ten sites around St. John, US Virgin Islands, in 2004 and 2010. The prevalence of white-pox disease was highly variable among sites, ranging from 0 to 53 %, and this disease preferentially targeted large colonies. We found that colony density did not significantly change over the 6-year period, although six out of ten sites showed higher densities through time. The size-frequency distributions of coral colonies at all sites were positively skewed in both 2004 and 2010, however, most sites showed a temporal shift toward more large-sized colonies. This increase in large-sized colonies occurred despite the presence of white-pox disease, a severe bleaching event, and several storms. This study provides evidence of slow recovery of the A. palmata population around St. John despite the persistence of several stressors.

Population Replacement and Immigrant Adaptation: New Issues Facing the West. Impact of Immigration in California, Policy Discussion Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Espenshade, Thomas J.

The low fertility of Western industrial nations is likely to become a permanent condition; in the absence of immigration, populations with below-replacement fertility will eventually decline in size. But at the same time fertility is declining, international migration to the West is accelerating. Legal immigration to the United States rose from…

Cheetahs and wild dogs show contrasting patterns of suppression by lions.

PubMed

Swanson, Alexandra; Caro, Tim; Davies-Mostert, Harriet; Mills, Michael G L; Macdonald, David W; Borner, Markus; Masenga, Emmanuel; Packer, Craig

2014-11-01

Top predators can dramatically suppress populations of smaller predators, with cascading effects throughout communities, and this pressure is often unquestioningly accepted as a constraint on mesopredator populations. In this study, we reassess whether African lions suppress populations of cheetahs and African wild dogs and examine possible mechanisms for coexistence between these species. Using long-term records from Serengeti National Park, we tested 30 years of population data for evidence of mesopredator suppression, and we examined six years of concurrent radio-telemetry data for evidence of large-scale spatial displacement. The Serengeti lion population nearly tripled between 1966 and 1998; during this time, wild dogs declined but cheetah numbers remained largely unchanged. Prior to their local extinction, wild dogs primarily occupied low lion density areas and apparently abandoned the long-term study area as the lion population 'saturated' the region. In contrast, cheetahs mostly utilized areas of high lion density, and the stability of the cheetah population indicates that neither high levels of lion-inflicted mortality nor behavioural avoidance inflict sufficient demographic consequences to translate into population-level effects. Population data from fenced reserves in southern Africa revealed a similar contrast between wild dogs and cheetahs in their ability to coexist with lions. These findings demonstrate differential responses of subordinate species within the same guild and challenge a widespread perception that lions undermine cheetah conservation efforts. Paired with several recent studies that document fine-scale lion-avoidance by cheetahs, this study further highlights fine-scale spatial avoidance as a possible mechanism for mitigating mesopredator suppression. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Relationships between population density, fine-scale genetic structure, mating system and pollen dispersal in a timber tree from African rainforests.

PubMed

Duminil, J; Daïnou, K; Kaviriri, D K; Gillet, P; Loo, J; Doucet, J-L; Hardy, O J

2016-03-01

Owing to the reduction of population density and/or the environmental changes it induces, selective logging could affect the demography, reproductive biology and evolutionary potential of forest trees. This is particularly relevant in tropical forests where natural population densities can be low and isolated trees may be subject to outcross pollen limitation and/or produce low-quality selfed seeds that exhibit inbreeding depression. Comparing reproductive biology processes and genetic diversity of populations at different densities can provide indirect evidence of the potential impacts of logging. Here, we analysed patterns of genetic diversity, mating system and gene flow in three Central African populations of the self-compatible legume timber species Erythrophleum suaveolens with contrasting densities (0.11, 0.68 and 1.72 adults per ha). The comparison of inbreeding levels among cohorts suggests that selfing is detrimental as inbred individuals are eliminated between seedling and adult stages. Levels of genetic diversity, selfing rates (∼16%) and patterns of spatial genetic structure (Sp ∼0.006) were similar in all three populations. However, the extent of gene dispersal differed markedly among populations: the average distance of pollen dispersal increased with decreasing density (from 200 m in the high-density population to 1000 m in the low-density one). Overall, our results suggest that the reproductive biology and genetic diversity of the species are not affected by current logging practices. However, further investigations need to be conducted in low-density populations to evaluate (1) whether pollen limitation may reduce seed production and (2) the regeneration potential of the species.

Epidemiology of disappearing Plasmodium vivax malaria: a case study in rural Amazonia.

PubMed

Barbosa, Susana; Gozze, Amanda B; Lima, Nathália F; Batista, Camilla L; Bastos, Melissa da Silva; Nicolete, Vanessa C; Fontoura, Pablo S; Gonçalves, Raquel M; Viana, Susana Ariane S; Menezes, Maria José; Scopel, Kézia Katiani G; Cavasini, Carlos E; Malafronte, Rosely dos Santos; da Silva-Nunes, Mônica; Vinetz, Joseph M; Castro, Márcia C; Ferreira, Marcelo U

2014-08-01

New frontier settlements across the Amazon Basin pose a major challenge for malaria elimination in Brazil. Here we describe the epidemiology of malaria during the early phases of occupation of farming settlements in Remansinho area, Brazilian Amazonia. We examine the relative contribution of low-density and asymptomatic parasitemias to the overall Plasmodium vivax burden over a period of declining transmission and discuss potential hurdles for malaria elimination in Remansinho and similar settings. Eight community-wide cross-sectional surveys, involving 584 subjects, were carried out in Remansinho over 3 years and complemented by active and passive surveillance of febrile illnesses between the surveys. We used quantitative PCR to detect low-density asexual parasitemias and gametocytemias missed by conventional microscopy. Mixed-effects multiple logistic regression models were used to characterize independent risk factors for P. vivax infection and disease. P. vivax prevalence decreased from 23.8% (March-April 2010) to 3.0% (April-May 2013), with no P. falciparum infections diagnosed after March-April 2011. Although migrants from malaria-free areas were at increased risk of malaria, their odds of having P. vivax infection and disease decreased by 2-3% with each year of residence in Amazonia. Several findings indicate that low-density and asymptomatic P. vivax parasitemias may complicate residual malaria elimination in Remansinho: (a) the proportion of subpatent infections (i.e. missed by microscopy) increased from 43.8% to 73.1% as P. vivax transmission declined; (b) most (56.6%) P. vivax infections were asymptomatic and 32.8% of them were both subpatent and asymptomatic; (c) asymptomatic parasite carriers accounted for 54.4% of the total P. vivax biomass in the host population; (d) over 90% subpatent and asymptomatic P. vivax had PCR-detectable gametocytemias; and (e) few (17.0%) asymptomatic and subpatent P. vivax infections that were left untreated progressed to clinical disease over 6 weeks of follow-up and became detectable by routine malaria surveillance.

Epidemiology of Disappearing Plasmodium vivax Malaria: A Case Study in Rural Amazonia

PubMed Central

Lima, Nathália F.; Batista, Camilla L.; Bastos, Melissa da Silva; Nicolete, Vanessa C.; Fontoura, Pablo S.; Gonçalves, Raquel M.; Viana, Susana Ariane S.; Menezes, Maria José; Scopel, Kézia Katiani G.; Cavasini, Carlos E.; Malafronte, Rosely dos Santos; da Silva-Nunes, Mônica; Vinetz, Joseph M.; Castro, Márcia C.; Ferreira, Marcelo U.

2014-01-01

Background New frontier settlements across the Amazon Basin pose a major challenge for malaria elimination in Brazil. Here we describe the epidemiology of malaria during the early phases of occupation of farming settlements in Remansinho area, Brazilian Amazonia. We examine the relative contribution of low-density and asymptomatic parasitemias to the overall Plasmodium vivax burden over a period of declining transmission and discuss potential hurdles for malaria elimination in Remansinho and similar settings. Methods Eight community-wide cross-sectional surveys, involving 584 subjects, were carried out in Remansinho over 3 years and complemented by active and passive surveillance of febrile illnesses between the surveys. We used quantitative PCR to detect low-density asexual parasitemias and gametocytemias missed by conventional microscopy. Mixed-effects multiple logistic regression models were used to characterize independent risk factors for P. vivax infection and disease. Principal Findings/Conclusions P. vivax prevalence decreased from 23.8% (March–April 2010) to 3.0% (April–May 2013), with no P. falciparum infections diagnosed after March–April 2011. Although migrants from malaria-free areas were at increased risk of malaria, their odds of having P. vivax infection and disease decreased by 2–3% with each year of residence in Amazonia. Several findings indicate that low-density and asymptomatic P. vivax parasitemias may complicate residual malaria elimination in Remansinho: (a) the proportion of subpatent infections (i.e. missed by microscopy) increased from 43.8% to 73.1% as P. vivax transmission declined; (b) most (56.6%) P. vivax infections were asymptomatic and 32.8% of them were both subpatent and asymptomatic; (c) asymptomatic parasite carriers accounted for 54.4% of the total P. vivax biomass in the host population; (d) over 90% subpatent and asymptomatic P. vivax had PCR-detectable gametocytemias; and (e) few (17.0%) asymptomatic and subpatent P. vivax infections that were left untreated progressed to clinical disease over 6 weeks of follow-up and became detectable by routine malaria surveillance. PMID:25166263

Guns, germs, and trees determine density and distribution of gorillas and chimpanzees in Western Equatorial Africa

PubMed Central

Blake, Stephen; Stokes, Emma J.; Aba’a, Rostand; Abitsi, Gaspard; Agbor, Anthony; Ambahe, Ruffin D.; Bakabana, Parfait C.; Bechem, Martha; Berlemont, Antoine; Bokoto de Semboli, Bruno; Boundja, Patrick R.; Campbell, Genevieve; De Wachter, Pauwel; Ella Akou, Marc; Esono Mba, Fidel; Feistner, Anna T. C.; Fosso, Bernard; Fotso, Roger; Greer, David; Inkamba-Nkulu, Clement; Iyenguet, Calixte F.; Jeffery, Kathryn J.; Kokangoye, Max; Madzoke, Bola; Makoumbou, Calixte; Malanda, Guy-Aimé F.; Malonga, Richard; Mbolo, Victor; Morgan, David B.; Motsaba, Prosper; Moukala, Gabin; Mowawa, Brice S.; Ndzai, Christian; Nishihara, Tomoaki; Nzooh, Zacharie; Pintea, Lilian; Rainey, Hugo J.; Rayden, Tim; Sanz, Crickette M.; Vanleeuwe, Hilde; Vosper, Ashley; Warren, Ymke; Wilkie, David S.

2018-01-01

We present a range-wide assessment of sympatric western lowland gorillas Gorilla gorilla gorilla and central chimpanzees Pan troglodytes troglodytes using the largest survey data set ever assembled for these taxa: 59 sites in five countries surveyed between 2003 and 2013, totaling 61,000 person-days of fieldwork. We used spatial modeling to investigate major drivers of great ape distribution and population trends. We predicted density across each taxon’s geographic range, allowing us to estimate overall abundance: 361,900 gorillas and 128,700 chimpanzees in Western Equatorial Africa—substantially higher than previous estimates. These two subspecies represent close to 99% of all gorillas and one-third of all chimpanzees. Annual population decline of gorillas was estimated at 2.7%, maintaining them as Critically Endangered on the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) Red List. We quantified the threats to each taxon, of which the three greatest were poaching, disease, and habitat degradation. Gorillas and chimpanzees are found at higher densities where forest is intact, wildlife laws are enforced, human influence is low, and disease impacts have been low. Strategic use of the results of these analyses could conserve the majority of gorillas and chimpanzees. With around 80% of both subspecies occurring outside protected areas, their conservation requires reinforcement of anti-poaching efforts both inside and outside protected areas (particularly where habitat quality is high and human impact is low), diligent disease control measures (including training, advocacy, and research into Ebola virus disease), and the preservation of high-quality habitat through integrated land-use planning and implementation of best practices by the extractive and agricultural industries. PMID:29707637

Guns, germs, and trees determine density and distribution of gorillas and chimpanzees in Western Equatorial Africa.

PubMed

Strindberg, Samantha; Maisels, Fiona; Williamson, Elizabeth A; Blake, Stephen; Stokes, Emma J; Aba'a, Rostand; Abitsi, Gaspard; Agbor, Anthony; Ambahe, Ruffin D; Bakabana, Parfait C; Bechem, Martha; Berlemont, Antoine; Bokoto de Semboli, Bruno; Boundja, Patrick R; Bout, Nicolas; Breuer, Thomas; Campbell, Genevieve; De Wachter, Pauwel; Ella Akou, Marc; Esono Mba, Fidel; Feistner, Anna T C; Fosso, Bernard; Fotso, Roger; Greer, David; Inkamba-Nkulu, Clement; Iyenguet, Calixte F; Jeffery, Kathryn J; Kokangoye, Max; Kühl, Hjalmar S; Latour, Stephanie; Madzoke, Bola; Makoumbou, Calixte; Malanda, Guy-Aimé F; Malonga, Richard; Mbolo, Victor; Morgan, David B; Motsaba, Prosper; Moukala, Gabin; Mowawa, Brice S; Murai, Mizuki; Ndzai, Christian; Nishihara, Tomoaki; Nzooh, Zacharie; Pintea, Lilian; Pokempner, Amy; Rainey, Hugo J; Rayden, Tim; Ruffler, Heidi; Sanz, Crickette M; Todd, Angelique; Vanleeuwe, Hilde; Vosper, Ashley; Warren, Ymke; Wilkie, David S

2018-04-01

We present a range-wide assessment of sympatric western lowland gorillas Gorilla gorilla gorilla and central chimpanzees Pan troglodytes troglodytes using the largest survey data set ever assembled for these taxa: 59 sites in five countries surveyed between 2003 and 2013, totaling 61,000 person-days of fieldwork. We used spatial modeling to investigate major drivers of great ape distribution and population trends. We predicted density across each taxon's geographic range, allowing us to estimate overall abundance: 361,900 gorillas and 128,700 chimpanzees in Western Equatorial Africa-substantially higher than previous estimates. These two subspecies represent close to 99% of all gorillas and one-third of all chimpanzees. Annual population decline of gorillas was estimated at 2.7%, maintaining them as Critically Endangered on the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) Red List. We quantified the threats to each taxon, of which the three greatest were poaching, disease, and habitat degradation. Gorillas and chimpanzees are found at higher densities where forest is intact, wildlife laws are enforced, human influence is low, and disease impacts have been low. Strategic use of the results of these analyses could conserve the majority of gorillas and chimpanzees. With around 80% of both subspecies occurring outside protected areas, their conservation requires reinforcement of anti-poaching efforts both inside and outside protected areas (particularly where habitat quality is high and human impact is low), diligent disease control measures (including training, advocacy, and research into Ebola virus disease), and the preservation of high-quality habitat through integrated land-use planning and implementation of best practices by the extractive and agricultural industries.

Impact of the Triglycerides to High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Ratio on the Incidence and Progression of CKD: A Longitudinal Study in a Large Japanese Population.

PubMed

Tsuruya, Kazuhiko; Yoshida, Hisako; Nagata, Masaharu; Kitazono, Takanari; Iseki, Kunitoshi; Iseki, Chiho; Fujimoto, Shouichi; Konta, Tsuneo; Moriyama, Toshiki; Yamagata, Kunihiro; Narita, Ichiei; Kimura, Kenjiro; Kondo, Masahide; Asahi, Koichi; Kurahashi, Issei; Ohashi, Yasuo; Watanabe, Tsuyoshi

2015-12-01

The impact of the triglycerides to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG:HDL-C) ratio on chronic kidney disease (CKD) is unclear. Longitudinal cohort study. 124,700 participants aged 39 to 74 years in the Japanese Specific Health Check and Guidance System, including 50,392 men, 74,308 women, 102,900 without CKD, and 21,800 with CKD. Quartiles of TG:HDL-C ratio. Changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary protein excretion during the 2-year study period. Incident CKD in participants without CKD, and progression of CKD in participants with CKD. In the entire study population, higher quartile of TG:HDL-C ratio at baseline was significantly associated with greater decline in eGFR and increase in urinary protein excretion during the 2-year study period, even after adjustment for confounding factors. A higher ratio was associated with higher risk of incident CKD in participants without CKD and higher risk of rapid decline in eGFR and increase in urinary protein excretion in participants with CKD. Higher TG:HDL-C ratio was more strongly associated with decline in eGFR (P for interaction = 0.002) and with incident CKD (P for interaction = 0.05) in participants with diabetes than without diabetes. Short observation period and single measurement of all variables. A higher TG:HDL-C ratio affects the decline in eGFR and incidence and progression of CKD in the Japanese population. Copyright © 2015 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The 2006 Project Progress Report for 1987-099-00 Dworshak Kokanee Population and Entrainment Assessment (contract # 26850) is attached to project 2007-003-00, contract #31598. [POINTER

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2008-12-18

During this contract, we continued testing underwater strobe lights to determine their effectiveness at repelling kokanee Oncorhynchus nerka away from Dworshak Dam. Strobe light tests were conducted on four nights from April 24-27, 2006, in front of the middle reservoir outlet (RO) 2. The density and distribution of fish, (thought to be mostly kokanee), were monitored with a split-beam echo sounder. We then compared fish counts and densities during nights when the lights were flashing to counts and densities during adjacent nights without the lights on. On two nights, April 25 and 27, 2006, when no lights were present, fishmore » counts near RO 2 averaged 12.4 fish and densities averaged 31.0 fish/ha. When strobe lights were turned on during the nights of April 24 and 26, mean counts dropped to 4.7 fish and densities dropped to 0.5 fish/ha. The decline in counts (62%) and densities (99%) was statistically significant (p = 0.009 and 0.002, respectively). Test results indicated that strobe lights were able to reduce fish densities by at least 50% in front of a discharging reservoir outlet, which would be sufficient to improve sport fish harvest. We also used split-beam hydroacoustics to monitor the kokanee population in Dworshak Reservoir during 2006. Estimated abundance of kokanee increased from the 2005 population estimate. Based on hydroacoustic surveys, we estimated approximately 5,815,000 kokanee (90% CI {+-} 27.6%) in Dworshak Reservoir in August 2006. This included 2,183,000 age-0 (90% CI {+-} 24.2%), 1,509,000 age-1 (90% CI {+-} 29.0%), and 2,124,000 age-2 (90% CI {+-} 27.6%) kokanee. This resulted in a density of age-2 kokanee above the management goal of 30-50 adults/ha. Entrainment sampling was conducted with fixed-site, split-beam hydroacoustics from May through September for a continuous 24 h period when dam operations permitted. The highest fish detection rates from entrainment assessments were found during dawn periods, unlike previous year's results, which were highest during nighttime. The lowest detection rate was found during the day period, which was consistent with previous findings. Fish detection rates were generally low during high discharges throughout the summer and highest during low discharges in May and June. Low detection rates were found during high discharge periods during drawdowns for anadromous fish flows in July and August, which resulted in low susceptibility to entrainment. Counts of spawning kokanee in four tributary streams totaled 29,743 fish. These data fit the previously developed relationship between spawner counts and adult kokanee abundance in the reservoir.« less

Dworshak Kokanee Population and Engrainment Assessment : 2006 Annual Report, March 1, 2006 - February 28, 2007.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stark, Eric J.

2008-12-18

During this contract, we continued testing underwater strobe lights to determine their effectiveness at repelling kokanee Oncorhynchus nerka away from Dworshak Dam. Strobe light tests were conducted on four nights from April 24-27, 2006, in front of the middle reservoir outlet (RO) 2. The density and distribution of fish, (thought to be mostly kokanee), were monitored with a split-beam echo sounder. We then compared fish counts and densities during nights when the lights were flashing to counts and densities during adjacent nights without the lights on. On two nights, April 25 and 27, 2006, when no lights were present, fishmore » counts near RO 2 averaged 12.4 fish and densities averaged 31.0 fish/ha. When strobe lights were turned on during the nights of April 24 and 26, mean counts dropped to 4.7 fish and densities dropped to 0.5 fish/ha. The decline in counts (62%) and densities (99%) was statistically significant (p = 0.009 and 0.002, respectively). Test results indicated that strobe lights were able to reduce fish densities by at least 50% in front of a discharging reservoir outlet, which would be sufficient to improve sport fish harvest. We also used split-beam hydroacoustics to monitor the kokanee population in Dworshak Reservoir during 2006. Estimated abundance of kokanee increased from the 2005 population estimate. Based on hydroacoustic surveys, we estimated approximately 5,815,000 kokanee (90% CI {+-} 27.6%) in Dworshak Reservoir in August 2006. This included 2,183,000 age-0 (90% CI {+-} 24.2%), 1,509,000 age-1 (90% CI {+-} 29.0%), and 2,124,000 age-2 (90% CI {+-} 27.6%) kokanee. This resulted in a density of age-2 kokanee above the management goal of 30-50 adults/ha. Entrainment sampling was conducted with fixed-site, split-beam hydroacoustics from May through September for a continuous 24 h period when dam operations permitted. The highest fish detection rates from entrainment assessments were found during dawn periods, unlike previous year's results, which were highest during nighttime. The lowest detection rate was found during the day period, which was consistent with previous findings. Fish detection rates were generally low during high discharges throughout the summer and highest during low discharges in May and June. Low detection rates were found during high discharge periods during drawdowns for anadromous fish flows in July and August, which resulted in low susceptibility to entrainment. Counts of spawning kokanee in four tributary streams totaled 29,743 fish. These data fit the previously developed relationship between spawner counts and adult kokanee abundance in the reservoir.« less

Status of the amphipod Diporeia Spp. in Lake Superior, 2011

EPA Science Inventory

Amphipods of the genus Diporeia have historically been the dominant benthic macroinvertebrates in deeper waters of the Laurentian Great Lakes. Although Diporeia populations in the lower Great Lakes have experienced severe declines in recent years, densities have remained relativ...

Impact of livestock grazing on abundance of Miridae and Reduviidae (Hemiptera) in crested wheatgrass pastures.

PubMed

O'Neill, Kevin M; Blodgett, Sue; Olson, Bret E; Miller, Richard S

2008-04-01

Miridae of the genera Labops and Irbisia, collectively referred to as "black grass bugs," can cause significant damage to wheatgrasses (Poaceae) of several genera on western North American rangeland. Another mirid in the same area, Capsus cinctus (Kolenati), causes damage to bluegrass (Poa spp.). Previous studies suggest that grazing management may reduce mirid populations on rangeland by eliminating preferred oviposition sites and reducing accumulations of litter that provide diurnal refuges for nymphs. We tested the hypothesis that grazing reduces mirid populations, along with those of Reduviidae, during a controlled grazing experiment. Densities of mirids and reduviids declined with increasing intensity of grazing, even though grazing occurred after the peak of mirid abundance each year. This suggests that declines in hemipteran densities resulted from grazing that occurred during previous years, perhaps because the most heavily grazed plots had the least plant litter. The results further confirm that grazing has the potential to control black grass bug populations, although the benefits could be potentially offset by negative impacts on beneficial insects such as reduviids.

Physiological proteins in resource-limited herbivores experiencing a population die-off

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garnier, R.; Bento, A. I.; Hansen, C.; Pilkington, J. G.; Pemberton, J. M.; Graham, A. L.

2017-08-01

Nutrient availability is predicted to interact with herbivore population densities. Competition for low quality food at high density may reduce summer food intake, and in turn winter survival. Conversely, low population density may favor physiological recovery through better access to better quality spring forage. Here, we take advantage of the long-term study of the Soay sheep population of St. Kilda (Scotland) to measure plasma protein markers and immunity in two consecutive summers with contrasting population densities. We show that, following a winter die-off resulting in a shift to low population density, albumin and total proteins increased, but only in adult sheep. The effect was not solely attributable to selective disappearance of malnourished sheep. Similarly, the concentration of antibodies was higher following the die-off, potentially indicating recovery of immune function. Overall, our results are consistent with the physiological recovery of surviving individuals after a harsh winter.

Parasitism and a shortage of refuges jointly mediate the strength of density dependence in a reef fish.

PubMed

Forrester, Graham E; Finley, Rachel J

2006-05-01

Various predator-prey, host-pathogen, and competitive interactions can combine to cause density dependence in population growth. Despite this possibility, most empirical tests for density-dependent interactions have focused on single mechanisms. Here we tested the hypothesis that two mechanisms of density dependence, parasitism and a shortage of refuges, jointly influence the strength of density-dependent mortality. We used mark-recapture analysis to estimate mortality of the host species, the bridled goby (Coryphopterus glaucofraenum). Sixty-three marked gobies were infected with a copepod gill parasite (Pharodes tortugensis), and 188 were uninfected. We used the spatial scale at which gobies were clustered naturally (approximately 4 m2) as an ecologically relevant neighborhood and measured goby density and the availability of refuges from predators within each goby's neighborhood. Goby survival generally declined with increasing density, and this decline was steeper for gobies with access to few refuges than for gobies in neighborhoods where refuges were common. The negative effects of high density and refuge shortage were also more severe for parasitized gobies than for gobies free of parasites. This parasite has characteristics typical of emerging diseases and appears to have altered the strength of a preexisting density-dependent interaction.

Declining incidence of low-trauma knee fractures in elderly women: nationwide statistics in Finland between 1970 and 2006.

PubMed

Kannus, P; Niemi, S; Parkkari, J; Sievänen, H; Palvanen, M

2009-01-01

The study assessed the recent secular trend in the incidence of low-trauma knee fractures among older Finns in the years 1970-2006. The clear rise in women's fracture incidence from early 1970s until the late 1990s was followed by a declining fracture rate. Exact reasons for the decline are unknown, but a cohort effect toward a healthier female population with improved functionality and reduced risk of injurious slips, trips and falls could partly explain the phenomenon. Although low-trauma fractures of elderly adults have been recognized as a major public health concern in modern societies with aging populations, fresh nationwide information on their secular trends is sparse. We determined the current trend in the number and incidence (per 100,000 persons) of low-trauma knee fractures among elderly people in Finland, an EU country with a well-defined white population of 5.3 million, by taking into account all persons 60 years of age or older who were admitted to our hospitals for primary treatment of such fractures from 1970 to 2006. The number and incidence of low-trauma knee fractures among 60-year-old or older Finnish women sharply rose between 1970 and 1997, from 218 (number) and 55 (incidence) in 1970 to 733 and 124 in 1997. However, thereafter both the number and incidence of fractures have continuously declined so that there were only 626 fractures in these women in 2006 (incidence 94). In the age-adjusted fracture incidence, the findings were similar. During 1970-1997, the age-adjusted incidence of low-trauma knee fractures in our elderly women clearly rose (from 60 to 118), but thereafter, this incidence declined to 85 in 2006. In men, the fracture incidence did not show consistent trend changes over time (30 in 1970 and 36 in 2006). The sharp rise in the incidence of low-trauma knee fractures in Finnish elderly women from early 1970s until late 1990s has been followed by a declining fracture rate. Exact reasons for this are unknown, but a cohort effect toward a healthier aging female population with improved functional ability and reduced risk of injurious slips, trips and falls cannot be excluded.

A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide

USGS Publications Warehouse

López-Carr, David; Pricope, Narcisa G.; Aukema, Juliann E.; Jankowska, Marta M.; Funk, Christopher C.; Husak, Gregory J.; Michaelsen, Joel C.

2014-01-01

We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify “hot spots” of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.

Genetic structure, spatial organization, and dispersal in two populations of bat-eared foxes

PubMed Central

Kamler, Jan F; Gray, Melissa M; Oh, Annie; Macdonald, David W

2013-01-01

We incorporated radio-telemetry data with genetic analysis of bat-eared foxes (Otocyon megalotis) from individuals in 32 different groups to examine relatedness and spatial organization in two populations in South Africa that differed in density, home-range sizes, and group sizes. Kin clustering occurred only for female dyads in the high-density population. Relatedness was negatively correlated with distance only for female dyads in the high-density population, and for male and mixed-sex dyads in the low-density population. Home-range overlap of neighboring female dyads was significantly greater in the high compared to low-density population, whereas overlap within other dyads was similar between populations. Amount of home-range overlap between neighbors was positively correlated with genetic relatedness for all dyad-site combinations, except for female and male dyads in the low-density population. Foxes from all age and sex classes dispersed, although females (mostly adults) dispersed farther than males. Yearlings dispersed later in the high-density population, and overall exhibited a male-biased dispersal pattern. Our results indicated that genetic structure within populations of bat-eared foxes was sex-biased, and was interrelated to density and group sizes, as well as sex-biases in philopatry and dispersal distances. We conclude that a combination of male-biased dispersal rates, adult dispersals, and sex-biased dispersal distances likely helped to facilitate inbreeding avoidance in this evolutionarily unique species of Canidae. PMID:24101981

Effects of uncertainty and variability on population declines and IUCN Red List classifications.

PubMed

Rueda-Cediel, Pamela; Anderson, Kurt E; Regan, Tracey J; Regan, Helen M

2018-01-22

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List Categories and Criteria is a quantitative framework for classifying species according to extinction risk. Population models may be used to estimate extinction risk or population declines. Uncertainty and variability arise in threat classifications through measurement and process error in empirical data and uncertainty in the models used to estimate extinction risk and population declines. Furthermore, species traits are known to affect extinction risk. We investigated the effects of measurement and process error, model type, population growth rate, and age at first reproduction on the reliability of risk classifications based on projected population declines on IUCN Red List classifications. We used an age-structured population model to simulate true population trajectories with different growth rates, reproductive ages and levels of variation, and subjected them to measurement error. We evaluated the ability of scalar and matrix models parameterized with these simulated time series to accurately capture the IUCN Red List classification generated with true population declines. Under all levels of measurement error tested and low process error, classifications were reasonably accurate; scalar and matrix models yielded roughly the same rate of misclassifications, but the distribution of errors differed; matrix models led to greater overestimation of extinction risk than underestimations; process error tended to contribute to misclassifications to a greater extent than measurement error; and more misclassifications occurred for fast, rather than slow, life histories. These results indicate that classifications of highly threatened taxa (i.e., taxa with low growth rates) under criterion A are more likely to be reliable than for less threatened taxa when assessed with population models. Greater scrutiny needs to be placed on data used to parameterize population models for species with high growth rates, particularly when available evidence indicates a potential transition to higher risk categories. © 2018 Society for Conservation Biology.

Linking resource selection and mortality modeling for population estimation of mountain lions in Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robinson, Hugh S.; Ruth, Toni K.; Gude, Justin A.; Choate, David; DeSimone, Rich; Hebblewhite, Mark; Matchett, Marc R.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Murphy, Kerry; Williams, Jim

2015-01-01

To be most effective, the scale of wildlife management practices should match the range of a particular species’ movements. For this reason, combined with our inability to rigorously or regularly census mountain lion populations, several authors have suggested that mountain lions be managed in a source-sink or metapopulation framework. We used a combination of resource selection functions, mortality estimation, and dispersal modeling to estimate cougar population levels in Montana statewide and potential population level effects of planned harvest levels. Between 1980 and 2012, 236 independent mountain lions were collared and monitored for research in Montana. From these data we used 18,695 GPS locations collected during winter from 85 animals to develop a resource selection function (RSF), and 11,726 VHF and GPS locations from 142 animals along with the locations of 6343 mountain lions harvested from 1988–2011 to validate the RSF model. Our RSF model validated well in all portions of the State, although it appeared to perform better in Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks (MFWP) Regions 1, 2, 4 and 6, than in Regions 3, 5, and 7. Our mean RSF based population estimate for the total population (kittens, juveniles, and adults) of mountain lions in Montana in 2005 was 3926, with almost 25% of the entire population in MFWP Region 1. Estimates based on a high and low reference population estimates produce a possible range of 2784 to 5156 mountain lions statewide. Based on a range of possible survival rates we estimated the mountain lion population in Montana to be stable to slightly increasing between 2005 and 2010 with lambda ranging from 0.999 (SD = 0.05) to 1.02 (SD = 0.03). We believe these population growth rates to be a conservative estimate of true population growth. Our model suggests that proposed changes to female harvest quotas for 2013–2015 will result in an annual statewide population decline of 3% and shows that, due to reduced dispersal, changes to harvest in one management unit may affect population growth in neighboring units where smaller or even no changes were made. Uncertainty regarding dispersal levels and initial population density may have a significant effect on predictions at a management unit scale (i.e. 2000 km2), while at a regional scale (i.e. 50,000 km2) large differences in initial population density result in relatively small changes in population growth rate, and uncertainty about dispersal may not be as influential. Doubling the presumed initial density from a low estimation of 2.19 total animals per 100 km2 resulted in a difference in annual population growth rate of only 2.6% statewide when compared to high density of 4.04 total animals per 100 km2 (low initial population estimate λ = 0.99, while high initial population estimate λ = 1.03). We suggest modeling tools such as this may be useful in harvest planning at a regional and statewide level.

Design to monitor trend in abundance and presence of American beaver (Castor canadensis) at the national forest scale.

PubMed

Beck, Jeffrey L; Dauwalter, Daniel C; Gerow, Kenneth G; Hayward, Gregory D

2010-05-01

Wildlife conservationists design monitoring programs to assess population dynamics, project future population states, and evaluate the impacts of management actions on populations. Because agency mandates and conservation laws call for monitoring data to elicit management responses, it is imperative to design programs that match the administrative scale for which management decisions are made. We describe a program to monitor population trends in American beaver (Castor canadensis) on the US Department of Agriculture, Black Hills National Forest (BHNF) in southwestern South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming, USA. Beaver have been designated as a management indicator species on the BHNF because of their association with riparian and aquatic habitats and its status as a keystone species. We designed our program to monitor the density of beaver food caches (abundance) within sampling units with beaver and the proportion of sampling units with beavers present at the scale of a national forest. We designated watersheds as sampling units in a stratified random sampling design that we developed based on habitat modeling results. Habitat modeling indicated that the most suitable beaver habitat was near perennial water, near aspen (Populus tremuloides) and willow (Salix spp.), and in low gradient streams at lower elevations. Results from the initial monitoring period in October 2007 allowed us to assess costs and logistical considerations, validate our habitat model, and conduct power analyses to assess whether our sampling design could detect the level of declines in beaver stated in the monitoring objectives. Beaver food caches were located in 20 of 52 sampled watersheds. Monitoring 20 to 25 watersheds with beaver should provide sufficient power to detect 15-40% declines in the beaver food cache index as well as a twofold decline in the odds of beaver being present in watersheds. Indices of abundance, such as the beaver food cache index, provide a practical measure of population status to conduct long-term monitoring across broad landscapes such as national forests.

Evaluating factors driving population densities of mayfly nymphs in Western Lake Erie

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stapanian, Martin A.; Kocovsky, Patrick; Bodamer Scarbro, Betsy L.

2017-01-01

Mayfly (Hexagenia spp.) nymphs have been widely used as indicators of water and substrate quality in lakes. Thermal stratification and the subsequent formation of benthic hypoxia may result in nymph mortality. Our goal was to identify potential associations between recent increases in temperature and eutrophication, which exacerbate hypoxic events in lakes, and mayfly populations in Lake Erie. Nymphs were collected during April–May 1999–2014. We used wind and temperature data to calculate four measures of thermal stratification, which drives hypoxic events, during summers of 1998–2013. Bottom trawl data collected during August 1998–2013 were used to estimate annual biomass of fishes known to be predators of mayfly nymphs. We used Akaike's Information Criterion to identify the best one- and two-predictor regression models of annual population densities (N/m2) of age-1 and age-2 nymphs, in which candidate predictors included the four measures of stratification, predator fish biomass, competition, and population densities of age-2 (for age-1) and age-1 (for age-2) nymphs from the previous year. Densities of both age classes of nymphs declined over the time series. Population densities of age-1 and age-2 nymphs from the previous year best predicted annual population densities of nymphs of both age classes. However, hypoxic conditions (indicated by stratification) and predation both had negative effects on annual population density of mayflies. Compared with predation, hypoxia had an inconsistent effect on annual nymph density. The increases in temperature and eutrophication in Lake Erie, which exacerbate hypoxic events, may have drastic effects on the mayfly populations.

Possible secondary population-level effects of selective harvest of adult male muskoxen.

PubMed

Schmidt, Joshua H; Gorn, Tony S

2013-01-01

Selective harvest regimes are often focused on males resulting in skewed sex-ratios, and for many ungulate species this strategy is sustainable. However, muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) are very social and mature bulls (≥4 years old), particularly prime-age bulls (6-10 years old), play important roles in predator defense and recruitment. A year-round social structure incorporating large males into mixed-sex groups could make this species more susceptible to the effects of selective harvest if population composition and sex-ratios influence overall survival and reproductive success. Using detailed data collected on the muskox population occupying the Seward Peninsula, Alaska during 2002-2012, we formulated the hypothesis that the selective harvest of mature bulls may be related to documented changes in population composition and growth rates in this species. In addition, we reviewed existing published information from two other populations in Alaska, the Cape Thompson and Northeastern populations, to compare population growth rates among the three areas under differential harvest rates relative to our hypothesis. We found that on the Seward Peninsula, mature bull:adult cow ratios declined 4-12%/year and short-yearling:adult cow ratios (i.e., recruitment) declined 8-9%/year in the most heavily harvested areas. Growth rates in all 3 populations decreased disproportionately after increases in the number of bulls harvested, and calf:cow ratios declined in the Northeastern population as harvest increased. While lack of appropriate data prevented us from excluding other potential causes such as density dependent effects and changes in predator densities, our results did align with our hypothesis, suggesting that in the interest of conservation, harvest of mature males should be restricted until causal factors can be more definitively identified. If confirmed by additional research, our findings would have important implications for harvest management and conservation of muskoxen and other ungulate species with similar life-histories.

Local bumble bee decline linked to recovery of honey bees, drought effects on floral resources.

PubMed

Thomson, Diane M

2016-10-01

Time series of abundances are critical for understanding how abiotic factors and species interactions affect population dynamics, but are rarely linked with experiments and also scarce for bee pollinators. This gap is important given concerns about declines in some bee species. I monitored honey bee (Apis mellifera) and bumble bee (Bombus spp.) foragers in coastal California from 1999, when feral A. mellifera populations were low due to Varroa destructor, until 2014. Apis mellifera increased substantially, except between 2006 and 2011, coinciding with declines in managed populations. Increases in A. mellifera strongly correlated with declines in Bombus and reduced diet overlap between them, suggesting resource competition consistent with past experimental results. Lower Bombus numbers also correlated with diminished floral resources. Declines in floral abundances were associated with drought and reduced spring rainfall. These results illustrate how competition with an introduced species may interact with climate to drive local decline of native pollinators. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Correlates of virulence in a frog-killing fungal pathogen: evidence from a California amphibian decline.

PubMed

Piovia-Scott, Jonah; Pope, Karen; Worth, S Joy; Rosenblum, Erica Bree; Poorten, Thomas; Refsnider, Jeanine; Rollins-Smith, Louise A; Reinert, Laura K; Wells, Heather L; Rejmanek, Dan; Lawler, Sharon; Foley, Janet

2015-07-01

The fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused declines and extinctions in amphibians worldwide, and there is increasing evidence that some strains of this pathogen are more virulent than others. While a number of putative virulence factors have been identified, few studies link these factors to specific epizootic events. We documented a dramatic decline in juvenile frogs in a Bd-infected population of Cascades frogs (Rana cascadae) in the mountains of northern California and used a laboratory experiment to show that Bd isolated in the midst of this decline induced higher mortality than Bd isolated from a more stable population of the same species of frog. This highly virulent Bd isolate was more toxic to immune cells and attained higher density in liquid culture than comparable isolates. Genomic analyses revealed that this isolate is nested within the global panzootic lineage and exhibited unusual genomic patterns, including increased copy numbers of many chromosomal segments. This study integrates data from multiple sources to suggest specific phenotypic and genomic characteristics of the pathogen that may be linked to disease-related declines.

Population Dynamics of Belonolaimus longicaudatusin a Cotton Production System

PubMed Central

Crow, W. T.; Weingartner, D. P.; McSorley, R.; Dickson, D. W.

2000-01-01

Belonolaimus longicaudatus is a recognized pathogen of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum), but insufficient information is available on the population dynamics and economic thresholds of B. longicaudatus in cotton production. In this study, data collected from a field in Florida were used to develop models predicting population increases of B. longicaudatus on cotton and population declines under clean fallow. Population densities of B. longicaudatus increased on cotton, reaching a carrying capacity of 139 nematodes/130 cm³ of soil, but decreased exponentially during periods of bare fallow. The model indicated that population densities should decrease each year of monocropped cotton, if an alternate host is not present between sequential cotton crops. Economic thresholds derived from published damage functions and current prices for cotton and nematicides varied from 2 to 5 B. longicaudatus/130 cm³ of soil, depending on the nematicide used. PMID:19270968

The DinJ/RelE Toxin-Antitoxin System Suppresses Bacterial Proliferation and Virulence of Xylella fastidiosa in Grapevine.

PubMed

Burbank, Lindsey P; Stenger, Drake C

2017-04-01

Xylella fastidiosa, the causal agent of Pierce's disease of grapes, is a slow-growing, xylem-limited, bacterial pathogen. Disease progression is characterized by systemic spread of the bacterium through xylem vessel networks, causing leaf-scorching symptoms, senescence, and vine decline. It appears to be advantageous to this pathogen to avoid excessive blockage of xylem vessels, because living bacterial cells are generally found in plant tissue with low bacterial cell density and minimal scorching symptoms. The DinJ/RelE toxin-antitoxin system is characterized here for a role in controlling bacterial proliferation and population size during plant colonization. The DinJ/RelE locus is transcribed from two separate promoters, allowing for coexpression of antitoxin DinJ with endoribonuclease toxin RelE, in addition to independent expression of RelE. The ratio of antitoxin/toxin expressed is dependent on bacterial growth conditions, with lower amounts of antitoxin present under conditions designed to mimic grapevine xylem sap. A knockout mutant of DinJ/RelE exhibits a hypervirulent phenotype, with higher bacterial populations and increased symptom development and plant decline. It is likely that DinJ/RelE acts to prevent excessive population growth, contributing to the ability of the pathogen to spread systemically without completely blocking the xylem vessels and increasing probability of acquisition by the insect vector.

Population Trend and Elasticities of Vital Rates for Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska: A New Life-History Table Analysis

PubMed Central

Maniscalco, John M.; Springer, Alan M.; Adkison, Milo D.; Parker, Pamela

2015-01-01

Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) numbers are beginning to recover across most of the western distinct population segment following catastrophic declines that began in the 1970s and ended around the turn of the century. This study makes use of contemporary vital rate estimates from a trend-site rookery in the eastern Gulf of Alaska (a sub-region of the western population) in a matrix population model to estimate the trend and strength of the recovery across this region between 2003 and 2013. The modeled population trend was projected into the future based on observed variation in vital rates and a prospective elasticity analysis was conducted to determine future trends and which vital rates pose the greatest threats to recovery. The modeled population grew at a mean rate of 3.5% per yr between 2003 and 2013 and was correlated with census count data from the local rookery and throughout the eastern Gulf of Alaska. If recent vital rate estimates continue with little change, the eastern Gulf of Alaska population could be fully recovered to pre-decline levels within 23 years. With density dependent growth, the population would need another 45 years to fully recover. Elasticity analysis showed that, as expected, population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, less sensitive to changes in juvenile survival, and least sensitive to changes in fecundity. A population decline could be expected with only a 6% decrease in adult survival, whereas a 32% decrease in fecundity would be necessary to bring about a population decline. These results have important implications for population management and suggest current research priorities should be shifted to a greater emphasis on survival rates and causes of mortality. PMID:26488901

Male Kirtland's Warblers' patch-level response to landscape structure during periods of varying population size and habitat amounts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donner, D.M.; Ribic, C.A.; Probst, J.R.

2009-01-01

Forest planners must evaluate how spatiotemporal changes in habitat amount and configuration across the landscape as a result of timber management will affect species' persistence. However, there are few long-term programs available for evaluation. We investigated the response of male Kirtland's Warbler (Dendroica kirtlandii) to 26 years of changing patch and landscape structure during a large, 26-year forestry-habitat restoration program within the warbler's primary breeding range. We found that the average density of male Kirtland's Warblers was related to a different combination of patch and landscape attributes depending on the species' regional population level and habitat amounts on the landscape (early succession jack pine (Pinus banksiana) forests; 15-42% habitat cover). Specifically, patch age and habitat regeneration type were important at low male population and total habitat amounts, while patch age and distance to an occupied patch were important at relatively high population and habitat amounts. Patch age and size were more important at increasing population levels and an intermediate amount of habitat. The importance of patch age to average male density during all periods reflects the temporal buildup and decline of male numbers as habitat suitability within the patch changed with succession. Habitat selection (i.e., preference for wildfire-regenerated habitat) and availability may explain the importance of habitat type and patch size during lower population and habitat levels. The relationship between male density and distance when there was the most habitat on the landscape and the male population was large and still increasing may be explained by the widening spatial dispersion of the increasing male population at the regional scale. Because creating or preserving habitat is not a random process, management efforts would benefit from more investigations of managed population responses to changes in spatial structure that occur through habitat gain rather than habitat loss to further our empirical understanding of general principles of the fragmentation process and habitat cover threshold effects within dynamic landscapes.

The density dilemma: limitations on juvenile production in threatened salmon populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walters, Annika W.; Copeland, Timothy; Venditti, David A.

2013-01-01

Density-dependent processes have repeatedly been shown to have a central role in salmonid population dynamics, but are often assumed to be negligible for populations at low abundances relative to historical records. Density dependence has been observed in overall spring/summer Snake River Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha production, but it is not clear how patterns observed at the aggregate level relate to individual populations within the basin. We used a Bayesian hierarchical modelling approach to explore the degree of density dependence in juvenile production for nine Idaho populations. Our results indicate that density dependence is ubiquitous, although its strength varies between populations. We also investigated the processes driving the population-level pattern and found density-dependent growth and mortality present for both common life-history strategies, but no evidence of density-dependent movement. Overwinter mortality, spatial clustering of redds and limited resource availability were identified as potentially important limiting factors contributing to density dependence. The ubiquity of density dependence for these threatened populations is alarming as stability at present low abundance levels suggests recovery may be difficult without major changes. We conclude that density dependence at the population level is common and must be considered in demographic analysis and management.

Status of the Amphipod Diporeia spp. in Lake Superior, poster presentation

EPA Science Inventory

The amphipod Diporeia has historically been the dominant benthic macroinvertebrate in deeper waters of the Laurentian Great Lakes. Although Diporeia populations in the lower Great Lakes have experienced severe declines in recent years, densities have remained relatively stable i...

Effects of wildlife forestry on abundance of breeding birds in bottomland hardwood forests of Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norris, Jennifer L.; Chamberlain, Michael J.; Twedt, Daniel J.

2009-01-01

Effects of silvicultural activities on birds are of increasing interest because of documented national declines in breeding bird populations for some species and the potential that these declines are in part due to changes in forest habitat. Silviculturally induced disturbances have been advocated as a means to achieve suitable forest conditions for priority wildlife species in bottomland hardwood forests. We evaluated how silvicultural activities on conservation lands in bottomland hardwood forests of Louisiana, USA, influenced species-specific densities of breeding birds. Our data were from independent studies, which used standardized point-count surveys for breeding birds in 124 bottomland hardwood forest stands on 12 management areas. We used Program DISTANCE 5.0, Release 2.0 (Thomas et al. 2006) to estimate density for 43 species with > 50 detections. For 36 of those species we compared density estimates among harvest regimes (individual selection, group selection, extensive harvest, and no harvest). We observed 10 species with similar densities in those harvest regimes compared with densities in stands not harvested. However, we observed 10 species that were negatively impacted by harvest with greater densities in stands not harvested, 9 species with greater densities in individual selection stands, 4 species with greater densities in group selection stands, and 4 species with greater densities in stands receiving an extensive harvest (e.g., > 40% canopy removal). Differences in intensity of harvest influenced densities of breeding birds. Moreover, community-wide avian conservation values of stands subjected to individual and group selection, and stands not harvested, were similar to each other and greater than that of stands subjected to extensive harvest that removed > 40% canopy cover. These results have implications for managers estimating breeding bird populations, in addition to predicting changes in bird communities as a result of prescribed and future forest management practices.

Crop diversity loss as primary cause of grey partridge and common pheasant decline in Lower Saxony, Germany.

PubMed

Ronnenberg, Katrin; Strauß, Egbert; Siebert, Ursula

2016-09-09

The grey partridge (Perdix perdix) and the common pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) are galliform birds typical of arable lands in Central Europe and exhibit a partly dramatic negative population trend. In order to understand general habitat preferences we modelled grey partridge and common pheasant densities over the entire range of Lower Saxony. Spatially explicit developments in bird densities were modelled using spatially explicit trends of crop cultivation. Pheasant and grey partridge densities counted annually by over 8000 hunting district holders over 10 years in a range of 3.7 Mio ha constitute a unique dataset (wildlife survey of Lower Saxony). Data on main landscape groups, functional groups of agricultural crops (consisting of 9.5 million fields compiled by the Integrated Administration and Control System) and landscape features were aggregated to 420 municipalities. To model linear 8 or 10 year population trends (for common pheasant and grey partridge respectively) we use rho correlation coefficients of densities, but also rho coefficients of agricultural crops. All models confirm a dramatic decline in population densities. The habitat model for the grey partridge shows avoidance of municipalities with a high proportion of woodland and water areas, but a preference for areas with a high proportion of winter grains and high crop diversity. The trend model confirms these findings with a linear positive effect of diversity on grey partridge population development. Similarly, the pheasant avoids wooded areas but showed some preference for municipalities with open water. The effect of maize was found to be positive at medium densities, but negative at very high proportions. Winter grains, landscape features and high crop diversity are favorable. The positive effect of winter grains and higher crop diversity is also supported by the trend model. The results show the strong importance of diverse crop cultivation. Most incentives favor the cultivation of specific crops, which results in large areas of monocultures. The results confirm the importance of sustainable agricultural policies.

Weakening density dependence from climate change and agricultural intensification triggers pest outbreaks: a 37-year observation of cotton bollworms

PubMed Central

Ouyang, Fang; Hui, Cang; Ge, Saiying; Men, Xin-Yuan; Zhao, Zi-Hua; Shi, Pei-Jian; Zhang, Yong-Sheng; Li, Bai-Lian

2014-01-01

Understanding drivers of population fluctuation, especially for agricultural pests, is central to the provision of agro-ecosystem services. Here, we examine the role of endogenous density dependence and exogenous factors of climate and human activity in regulating the 37-year population dynamics of an important agricultural insect pest, the cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera), in North China from 1975 to 2011. Quantitative time-series analysis provided strong evidence explaining long-term population dynamics of the cotton bollworm and its driving factors. Rising temperature and declining rainfall exacerbated the effect of agricultural intensification on continuously weakening the negative density dependence in regulating the population dynamics of cotton bollworms. Consequently, ongoing climate change and agricultural intensification unleashed the tightly regulated pest population and triggered the regional outbreak of H. armigera in 1992. Although the negative density dependence can effectively regulate the population change rate to fluctuate around zero at stable equilibrium levels before and after outbreak in the 1992, the population equilibrium jumped to a higher density level with apparently larger amplitudes after the outbreak. The results highlight the possibility for exogenous factors to induce pest outbreaks and alter the population regulating mechanism of negative density dependence and, thus, the stable equilibrium of the pest population, often to a higher level, posing considerable risks to the provision of agro-ecosystem services and regional food security. Efficient and timely measures of pest management in the era of Anthropocene should target the strengthening and revival of weakening density dependence caused by climate change and human activities. PMID:25535553

Weakening density dependence from climate change and agricultural intensification triggers pest outbreaks: a 37-year observation of cotton bollworms.

PubMed

Ouyang, Fang; Hui, Cang; Ge, Saiying; Men, Xin-Yuan; Zhao, Zi-Hua; Shi, Pei-Jian; Zhang, Yong-Sheng; Li, Bai-Lian

2014-09-01

Understanding drivers of population fluctuation, especially for agricultural pests, is central to the provision of agro-ecosystem services. Here, we examine the role of endogenous density dependence and exogenous factors of climate and human activity in regulating the 37-year population dynamics of an important agricultural insect pest, the cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera), in North China from 1975 to 2011. Quantitative time-series analysis provided strong evidence explaining long-term population dynamics of the cotton bollworm and its driving factors. Rising temperature and declining rainfall exacerbated the effect of agricultural intensification on continuously weakening the negative density dependence in regulating the population dynamics of cotton bollworms. Consequently, ongoing climate change and agricultural intensification unleashed the tightly regulated pest population and triggered the regional outbreak of H. armigera in 1992. Although the negative density dependence can effectively regulate the population change rate to fluctuate around zero at stable equilibrium levels before and after outbreak in the 1992, the population equilibrium jumped to a higher density level with apparently larger amplitudes after the outbreak. The results highlight the possibility for exogenous factors to induce pest outbreaks and alter the population regulating mechanism of negative density dependence and, thus, the stable equilibrium of the pest population, often to a higher level, posing considerable risks to the provision of agro-ecosystem services and regional food security. Efficient and timely measures of pest management in the era of Anthropocene should target the strengthening and revival of weakening density dependence caused by climate change and human activities.

Relationships between population density, fine-scale genetic structure, mating system and pollen dispersal in a timber tree from African rainforests

PubMed Central

Duminil, J; Daïnou, K; Kaviriri, D K; Gillet, P; Loo, J; Doucet, J-L; Hardy, O J

2016-01-01

Owing to the reduction of population density and/or the environmental changes it induces, selective logging could affect the demography, reproductive biology and evolutionary potential of forest trees. This is particularly relevant in tropical forests where natural population densities can be low and isolated trees may be subject to outcross pollen limitation and/or produce low-quality selfed seeds that exhibit inbreeding depression. Comparing reproductive biology processes and genetic diversity of populations at different densities can provide indirect evidence of the potential impacts of logging. Here, we analysed patterns of genetic diversity, mating system and gene flow in three Central African populations of the self-compatible legume timber species Erythrophleum suaveolens with contrasting densities (0.11, 0.68 and 1.72 adults per ha). The comparison of inbreeding levels among cohorts suggests that selfing is detrimental as inbred individuals are eliminated between seedling and adult stages. Levels of genetic diversity, selfing rates (∼16%) and patterns of spatial genetic structure (Sp ∼0.006) were similar in all three populations. However, the extent of gene dispersal differed markedly among populations: the average distance of pollen dispersal increased with decreasing density (from 200 m in the high-density population to 1000 m in the low-density one). Overall, our results suggest that the reproductive biology and genetic diversity of the species are not affected by current logging practices. However, further investigations need to be conducted in low-density populations to evaluate (1) whether pollen limitation may reduce seed production and (2) the regeneration potential of the species. PMID:26696137

POPULATION DECLINES OF THE PUERTO RICAN VIREO IN GUANICA FOREST.

Treesearch

JOHN FAABORG; KATE M. DUGGER; WAYNE J. ARENDT; BETHANY L. WOODWORTH; MICHAEL E. BALTZ

1997-01-01

Abundance of the Puerto Rican Vireo (Vireo Zutimeri) in Guanica Forest, Puerto Rico, has declined gradually over the period 1973-1996 as determined by constant effort mist netting. Concurrent studies of breeding vireos show low nesting success, primarily due to parasitism by Shiny Cowbirds (Molothrus bonariensis). This decline may reflect the rather recent entry of the...

Inter-decadal patterns of population and dietary change in sea otters at Amchitka Island, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watt, J.; Siniff, D.B.; Estes, J.A.

2000-01-01

After having been hunted to near-extinction in the Pacific maritime fur trade, the sea otter population at Amchitka Island, Alaska increased from very low numbers in the early 1900s to near equilibrium density by the 1940s. The population persisted at or near equilibrium through the 1980s, but declined sharply in the 1990s in apparent response to increased killer whale predation. Sea otter diet and foraging behavior were studied at Amchitka from August 1992 to March 1994 and the data compared with similar information obtained during several earlier periods. In contrast with dietary patterns in the 1960s and 1970s, when the sea otter population was at or near equilibrium density and kelp-forest fishes were the dietary mainstay, these fishes were rarely eaten in the 1990s. Benthic invertebrates, particularly sea urchins, dominated the otter's diet from early summer to midwinter, then decreased in importance during late winter and spring when numerous Pacific smooth lumpsuckers (a large and easily captured oceanic fish) were eaten. The occurrence of spawning lumpsuckers in coastal waters apparently is episodic on a scale of years to decades. The otters' recent dietary shift away from kelp-forest fishes is probably a response to the increased availability of lumpsuckers and sea urchins (both high-preference prey). Additionally, increased urchin densities have reduced kelp beds, thus further reducing the availability of kelp-forest fishes. Our findings suggest that dietary patterns reflect changes in population status and show how an ecosystem normally under top-down control and limited by coastal zone processes can be significantly perturbed by exogenous events.

Assessment of forest fragmentation in southern New England using remote sensing and geographic information systems technology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vogelmann, James E.

1995-01-01

Spatial patterns and rates of forest fragmentation were assessed using digital remote sensing data for a region in southern New England that included 157 townships in southern New Hampshire and northeastern Massachusetts. The study area has undergone marked population increases over the last several decades. Following classification of 1973 and 1988 Landsat Multispectral Scanner data into forest and nonforest classes, data were incorporated into a geographic information system. The natural logarithms of forest area to perimeter ratios, referred to as the forest continuity index, were used to assess patterns and trends of forest fragmentation across the region Forest continuity index values were extracted from each township for both data sets and compared with population data. Forest continuity index values were found to decrease with increasing population density until about 200 persons per square kilometer, after which the relationship stabilized. With slight population increases at low densities forest continuity index values declined sharply, implying abrupt increases in forest fragmentation. Results from the study indicated good negative correlations (r2 values of 0.81 and 0.77) between the Multispectral Scanner-derived forest continuity index and natural logs of township population density. Socioeconomic indicators such as affluence and commuting patterns did not appear to correlate well with forest fragmentation estimates. Decreases in forest continuity index values occurred throughout much of the study region between 1973 and 1988, suggesting that forest fragmentation is occurring over large regions within the eastern United States. It is technologically feasible to assess patterns and rates of forest fragmentation across much larger areas than analyzed in this study; such analyses would provide useful overviews enabling objective assessment of the magnitude of forest fragmentation.

Predicting fluctuations-caused regime shifts in a time delayed dynamics of an invading species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Qingshuang; Wang, Tonghuan; Zeng, Chunhua; Dong, Xiaohui; Guan, Lin

2018-03-01

In this paper, we investigate early warning signals (EWS) of regime shifts in a density-dependent invading population model with time delay, in which the population density is assumed to be disturbed by intrinsic and extrinsic fluctuations. It is shown that the time delay and noises can cause the regime shifts between low and high population density states. The regime shift time (RST) as a function of noise intensity exhibits a maximum, which identifies the signature of the noise-enhanced stability of the low density state, while the time delay weakens the stability of the low density state. Applying the Kramers time technique, we also discuss the intersection point of the RST between low and high population density states, i.e., a critical point in the RST is found. Therefore, the critical point may give an EWS of regime shifts from one alternative state to another one for the changes in the noise parameters and time delay.

Effects of illegal harvest of eggs on the population decline of leatherback turtles in Las Baulas Marine National Park, Costa Rica.

PubMed

Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián; Saba, Vincent S; Piedra, Rotney; Paladino, Frank V; Spotila, James R

2008-10-01

Within 19 years the nesting population of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at Parque Nacional Marino Las Baulas declined from 1500 turtles nesting per year to about 100. We analyzed the effects of fishery bycatch and illegal harvesting (poaching) of eggs on this population. We modeled the population response to different levels of egg harvest (90, 75, 50, and 25%) and the effect of eradicating poaching at different times during the population decline. We compared effects of 90% poaching with those of 20% adult mortality because both of these processes were present in the population at Las Baulas. There was a stepwise decline in number of nesting turtles at all levels of egg harvest. Extirpation times for different levels of poaching ranged from 45 to 282 years. The nesting population declined more slowly and survived longer with 20% adult mortality (146 years) than it did with 90% poaching (45 years). Time that elapsed until poaching stopped determined the average population size at which the population stabilized, ranging from 90 to 420 nesting turtles. Our model predicted that saving clutches lost naturally would restore the population when adult mortality rates were low and would contribute more to population recovery when there were short remigration intervals between nesting seasons and a large proportion of natural loss of clutches. Because the model indicated that poaching was the most important cause of the leatherback decline at Las Baulas, protecting nests on the beach and protecting the beach from development are critical for survival of this population. Nevertheless, the model predicted that current high mortality rates of adults will prevent population recovery. Therefore, protection of the beach habitat and nests must be continued and fishery bycatch must be reduced to save this population.

Non-thermal hydrogen atoms in the terrestrial upper thermosphere.

PubMed

Qin, Jianqi; Waldrop, Lara

2016-12-06

Model predictions of the distribution and dynamical transport of hydrogen atoms in the terrestrial atmosphere have long-standing discrepancies with ultraviolet remote sensing measurements, indicating likely deficiencies in conventional theories regarding this crucial atmospheric constituent. Here we report the existence of non-thermal hydrogen atoms that are much hotter than the ambient oxygen atoms in the upper thermosphere. Analysis of satellite measurements indicates that the upper thermospheric hydrogen temperature, more precisely the mean kinetic energy of the atomic hydrogen population, increases significantly with declining solar activity, contrary to contemporary understanding of thermospheric behaviour. The existence of hot hydrogen atoms in the upper thermosphere, which is the key to reconciling model predictions and observations, is likely a consequence of low atomic oxygen density leading to incomplete collisional thermalization of the hydrogen population following its kinetic energization through interactions with hot atomic or ionized constituents in the ionosphere, plasmasphere or magnetosphere.

Non-thermal hydrogen atoms in the terrestrial upper thermosphere

PubMed Central

Qin, Jianqi; Waldrop, Lara

2016-01-01

Model predictions of the distribution and dynamical transport of hydrogen atoms in the terrestrial atmosphere have long-standing discrepancies with ultraviolet remote sensing measurements, indicating likely deficiencies in conventional theories regarding this crucial atmospheric constituent. Here we report the existence of non-thermal hydrogen atoms that are much hotter than the ambient oxygen atoms in the upper thermosphere. Analysis of satellite measurements indicates that the upper thermospheric hydrogen temperature, more precisely the mean kinetic energy of the atomic hydrogen population, increases significantly with declining solar activity, contrary to contemporary understanding of thermospheric behaviour. The existence of hot hydrogen atoms in the upper thermosphere, which is the key to reconciling model predictions and observations, is likely a consequence of low atomic oxygen density leading to incomplete collisional thermalization of the hydrogen population following its kinetic energization through interactions with hot atomic or ionized constituents in the ionosphere, plasmasphere or magnetosphere. PMID:27922018

Population limitation and the wolves of Isle Royale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, Rolf O.; Thomas, Nancy J.; Thurber, Joanne M.; Vucetich, John A.; Waite, Thomas A.

1998-01-01

Population regulation for gray wolves in Isle Royale National Park, Michigan, was examined in 1987-1995 when wolves were in chronic decline following a crash of the population in 1981-1982. Canine parvovirus (CPV-2) was probably influential during the crash, but it disappeared by the late 1980s. High mortality abruptly ceased after 1988, but low recruitment in the absence of disease and obvious shortage of food prevented recovery of the wolf population. In 1983-1995, with a comparable number of moose '10 years old as potential prey, wolves were only half as numerous as in 1959-1980. A simulation of annual fluctuations in effective population size (Ne) for wolves on Isle Royale suggests that their genetic heterozygosity has declined ca. 13% with each generation and ca. 80% in the 50- year history of this population. Inbreeding depression and stochastic demographic variation both remain possible explanations for recent low recruitment.

Effects of experimental removal of Barred Owls on population demography of Northern Spotted Owls in Washington and Oregon—2017 progress report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiens, J. David; Dugger, Katie M.; Lesmeister, Damon B.; Dilione, Krista E.; Simon, David C.

2018-05-21

Populations of Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina; hereinafter referred to as Spotted Owl) are declining throughout this subspecies’ geographic range. Evidence indicates that competition with invading populations of Barred Owls (S. varia) has contributed significantly to those declines. A pilot study in California showed that localized removal of Barred Owls coupled with conservation of suitable forest conditions can slow or even reverse population declines of Spotted Owls. It remains unknown, however, whether similar results can be obtained in areas with different forest conditions, greater densities of Barred Owls, and fewer remaining Spotted Owls. During 2015–17, we initiated a before-after-control-impact (BACI) experiment at three study areas in Oregon and Washington to determine if removal of Barred Owls can improve population trends of Spotted Owls. Each study area had at least 20 years of pre-treatment demographic data on Spotted Owls, and represented different forest conditions occupied by the two owl species in the Pacific Northwest. This report describes research accomplishments and preliminary results from the first 2.5 years (March 2015–August 2017) of the planned 5-year experiment.

Single-treatment porcine zona pellucida immunocontraception associated with reduction of a population of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus).

PubMed

Rutberg, Allen T; Naugle, Ricky E; Verret, Frank

2013-12-01

Previous reports have demonstrated gradual reductions of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations through immunocontraception, with stabilization occurring after 2-4 yr of treatment, and subsequent reductions of 6-10% annually. These studies employed porcine zona pellucida (PZP) vaccines that required two initial treatments and annual retreatments. From 2005 to 2010, 258 adult and yearling female deer on Fripp Island, South Carolina, were treated with one of several PZP preparations designed to produce 2+ yr of effective contraception with a single treatment. These included several preparations of SpayVac and of native PZP-adjuvant emulsion plus PZP and QA-21 in timed-release pellets. Deer were chemically immobilized, ear-tagged, and administered initial treatments by hand in February-March. Some treated deer were boosted remotely with PZP-adjuvant emulsion 1.5 - 4.5 yr after initial treatments. Ground-based distance sampling was used to estimate deer population density at Fripp Island, a resort community, and at a relatively undeveloped neighboring control site, Hunting Island. Most vaccine preparations tested reduced fawning rates by 75% to 95% for at least 1 yr. From 2005 to 2011, deer density on Fripp Island declined by 50%, from 72 deer/km(2) to 36 deer/km(2), an average annual reduction of 11%. In contrast, population density on the Hunting Island control site fluctuated between 2005 and 2011, averaging 23 deer/km(2) (range, 19-28 deer/km(2)). Population declines on Fripp Island were associated with an increase in the proportion of treated females and with a progressive decrease in winter fawn:doe ratios, from 1.21 fawns/doe in 2005 to 0.19 fawns/doe in 2010. Winter fawn:doe ratios averaged 1.36 fawns/doe (range, 0.84 - 1.62 fawns/doe) at the Hunting Island control site. Annual survivorship averaged approximately 79% among ear-tagged females. The rate at which deer populations diminished in association with PZP treatments on Fripp Island was higher than that seen at other study sites, although the reasons for the more rapid decline on Fripp Island are not well understood.

Walleye population and fishery responses after elimination of legal harvest on Escanaba Lake, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haglund, Justin M.; Isermann, Daniel A.; Sass, Greg G.

2016-01-01

Implementing harvest regulations to eliminate or substantially reduce (≥90%) the exploitation of Walleyes Sander vitreus in recreational fisheries may increase population size structure, but these measures also could reduce angler effort because many Walleye anglers are harvest oriented. We analyzed data collected during 1995–2015 to determine whether Walleye population and fishery metrics in Escanaba Lake, Wisconsin, changed after a minimum TL limit of 71 cm with a one-fish daily bag limit was implemented in 2003. This change eliminated the legal harvest of Walleyes after several decades during which annual exploitation averaged 34%. We detected a significant increase in the loge density of adult females after the regulation change, but the loge density of all adults and adult males did not differ between periods. Mean TL of adult males was significantly greater after the regulation change, but the mean TL of females and the proportional size distribution of preferred-length fish (≥51 cm TL) were similar between periods. Sex-specific mean TLs at age 5 did not differ between periods. Loge density of age-0 Walleyes did not change after 2003, but variation in age-0 density was lower. Total angler effort and the effort for anglers targeting Walleyes were significantly lower (35% and 60% declines, respectively) after the regulation change, whereas catch rates for both angler categories did not differ between periods. Our results suggest that implementing highly restrictive regulations that greatly reduce or eliminate legal harvest will not always increase angler catch rates and population size structure. Highly restrictive regulations may also deter anglers from using a fishery when many other fisheries are available. Our findings are useful for fishery managers who may work with anglers holding the belief that lower exploitation is a potential remedy for low Walleye size structure, even when density and growth suggest that there is limited potential for improvement.

Spatial heterogeneity in response of male greater sage-grouse lek attendance to energy development.

PubMed

Gregory, Andrew J; Beck, Jeffrey L

2014-01-01

Landscape modification due to rapidly expanding energy development, in particular oil and gas, in the westernUSA, have prompted concerns over how such developments may impact wildlife. One species of conservation concern across much of the Intermountain West is the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercusurophasianus). Sage-grouse have been petitioned for listing under provisions of the Endangered Species Act 7 times and the state of Wyoming alone represents 64% of the extant sage-grouse population in the eastern portion of their range. Consequently, the relationship between sage-grouse populations and oil and gas development in Wyoming is an important component to managing the long-term viability of this species. We used 814 leks from the Wyoming Game and Fish Department's lek survey database and well pad data from the Wyoming Oil and Gas Conservation Commission to evaluate changes in sage-grouse lek counts as a function of oil and gas development since 1991.From 1991-2011 we found that oil and gas well-pad density increased 3.6-fold across the state and was associated with a 24% decline in the number of male sage-grouse. Using a spatial and temporally structured analysis via Geographically Weighted Regression, we found a 1-to-4 year time lag between development density and lek decline. Sage-grouse also responded to development densities at multiple spatial neighborhoods surrounding leks, including broad scales of 10 km. However, sage-grouse lek counts do not always decline as a result of oil and gas development. We found similar development densities resulting in different sage-grouse lek count responses, suggesting that development density alone is insufficient to predict the impacts that oil and gas development have on sage-grouse. Finally, our analysis suggests a maximum development density of 1 well-pad within 2 km of leks to avoid measurable impacts within 1 year, and <6 well-pads within 10 km of leks to avoid delayed impacts.

A geographic analysis of population density thresholds in the influenza pandemic of 1918-19.

PubMed

Chandra, Siddharth; Kassens-Noor, Eva; Kuljanin, Goran; Vertalka, Joshua

2013-02-20

Geographic variables play an important role in the study of epidemics. The role of one such variable, population density, in the spread of influenza is controversial. Prior studies have tested for such a role using arbitrary thresholds for population density above or below which places are hypothesized to have higher or lower mortality. The results of such studies are mixed. The objective of this study is to estimate, rather than assume, a threshold level of population density that separates low-density regions from high-density regions on the basis of population loss during an influenza pandemic. We study the case of the influenza pandemic of 1918-19 in India, where over 15 million people died in the short span of less than one year. Using data from six censuses for 199 districts of India (n=1194), the country with the largest number of deaths from the influenza of 1918-19, we use a sample-splitting method embedded within a population growth model that explicitly quantifies population loss from the pandemic to estimate a threshold level of population density that separates low-density districts from high-density districts. The results demonstrate a threshold level of population density of 175 people per square mile. A concurrent finding is that districts on the low side of the threshold experienced rates of population loss (3.72%) that were lower than districts on the high side of the threshold (4.69%). This paper introduces a useful analytic tool to the health geographic literature. It illustrates an application of the tool to demonstrate that it can be useful for pandemic awareness and preparedness efforts. Specifically, it estimates a level of population density above which policies to socially distance, redistribute or quarantine populations are likely to be more effective than they are for areas with population densities that lie below the threshold.

A geographic analysis of population density thresholds in the influenza pandemic of 1918–19

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Geographic variables play an important role in the study of epidemics. The role of one such variable, population density, in the spread of influenza is controversial. Prior studies have tested for such a role using arbitrary thresholds for population density above or below which places are hypothesized to have higher or lower mortality. The results of such studies are mixed. The objective of this study is to estimate, rather than assume, a threshold level of population density that separates low-density regions from high-density regions on the basis of population loss during an influenza pandemic. We study the case of the influenza pandemic of 1918–19 in India, where over 15 million people died in the short span of less than one year. Methods Using data from six censuses for 199 districts of India (n=1194), the country with the largest number of deaths from the influenza of 1918–19, we use a sample-splitting method embedded within a population growth model that explicitly quantifies population loss from the pandemic to estimate a threshold level of population density that separates low-density districts from high-density districts. Results The results demonstrate a threshold level of population density of 175 people per square mile. A concurrent finding is that districts on the low side of the threshold experienced rates of population loss (3.72%) that were lower than districts on the high side of the threshold (4.69%). Conclusions This paper introduces a useful analytic tool to the health geographic literature. It illustrates an application of the tool to demonstrate that it can be useful for pandemic awareness and preparedness efforts. Specifically, it estimates a level of population density above which policies to socially distance, redistribute or quarantine populations are likely to be more effective than they are for areas with population densities that lie below the threshold. PMID:23425498

Global Demand for Natural Resources Eliminated More Than 100,000 Bornean Orangutans.

PubMed

Voigt, Maria; Wich, Serge A; Ancrenaz, Marc; Meijaard, Erik; Abram, Nicola; Banes, Graham L; Campbell-Smith, Gail; d'Arcy, Laura J; Delgado, Roberto A; Erman, Andi; Gaveau, David; Goossens, Benoit; Heinicke, Stefanie; Houghton, Max; Husson, Simon J; Leiman, Ashley; Sanchez, Karmele Llano; Makinuddin, Niel; Marshall, Andrew J; Meididit, Ari; Miettinen, Jukka; Mundry, Roger; Musnanda; Nardiyono; Nurcahyo, Anton; Odom, Kisar; Panda, Adventus; Prasetyo, Didik; Priadjati, Aldrianto; Purnomo; Rafiastanto, Andjar; Russon, Anne E; Santika, Truly; Sihite, Jamartin; Spehar, Stephanie; Struebig, Matthew; Sulbaran-Romero, Enrique; Tjiu, Albertus; Wells, Jessie; Wilson, Kerrie A; Kühl, Hjalmar S

2018-03-05

Unsustainable exploitation of natural resources is increasingly affecting the highly biodiverse tropics [1, 2]. Although rapid developments in remote sensing technology have permitted more precise estimates of land-cover change over large spatial scales [3-5], our knowledge about the effects of these changes on wildlife is much more sparse [6, 7]. Here we use field survey data, predictive density distribution modeling, and remote sensing to investigate the impact of resource use and land-use changes on the density distribution of Bornean orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus). Our models indicate that between 1999 and 2015, half of the orangutan population was affected by logging, deforestation, or industrialized plantations. Although land clearance caused the most dramatic rates of decline, it accounted for only a small proportion of the total loss. A much larger number of orangutans were lost in selectively logged and primary forests, where rates of decline were less precipitous, but where far more orangutans are found. This suggests that further drivers, independent of land-use change, contribute to orangutan loss. This finding is consistent with studies reporting hunting as a major cause in orangutan decline [8-10]. Our predictions of orangutan abundance loss across Borneo suggest that the population decreased by more than 100,000 individuals, corroborating recent estimates of decline [11]. Practical solutions to prevent future orangutan decline can only be realized by addressing its complex causes in a holistic manner across political and societal sectors, such as in land-use planning, resource exploitation, infrastructure development, and education, and by increasing long-term sustainability [12]. VIDEO ABSTRACT. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do food availability, parasitism, and stress have synergistic effects on red colobus populations living in forest fragments?

PubMed

Chapman, Colin A; Wasserman, Michael D; Gillespie, Thomas R; Speirs, Michaela L; Lawes, Michael J; Saj, Tania L; Ziegler, Toni E

2006-12-01

Identifying factors that influence animal density is a fundamental goal in ecology that has taken on new importance with the need to develop informed management plans. This is particularly the case for primates as the tropical forest that supports many species is being rapidly converted. We use a system of forest fragments adjacent to Kibale National Park, Uganda, to examine if food availability and parasite infections have synergistic affects on red colobus (Piliocolobus tephrosceles) abundance. Given that the size of primate populations can often respond slowly to environmental changes, we also examined how these factors influenced cortisol levels. To meet these objectives, we monitored gastrointestinal parasites, evaluated fecal cortisol levels, and determined changes in food availability by conducting complete tree inventories in eight fragments in 2000 and 2003. Red colobus populations declined by an average of 21% among the fragments; however, population change ranged from a 25% increase to a 57% decline. The cumulative basal area of food trees declined by an average of 29.5%; however, forest change was highly variable (a 2% gain to a 71% decline). We found that nematode prevalence averaged 58% among fragments (range 29-83%). The change in colobus population size was correlated both with food availability and a number of indices of parasite infections. A path analysis suggests that change in food availability has a strong direct effect on population size, but it also has an indirect effect via parasite infections. 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Spatio-Temporal Variation in Predation by Urban Domestic Cats (Felis catus) and the Acceptability of Possible Management Actions in the UK

PubMed Central

Thomas, Rebecca L.; Fellowes, Mark D. E.; Baker, Philip J.

2012-01-01

Urban domestic cat (Felis catus) populations can attain exceedingly high densities and are not limited by natural prey availability. This has generated concerns that they may negatively affect prey populations, leading to calls for management. We enlisted cat-owners to record prey returned home to estimate patterns of predation by free-roaming pets in different localities within the town of Reading, UK and questionnaire surveys were used to quantify attitudes to different possible management strategies. Prey return rates were highly variable: only 20% of cats returned ≥4 dead prey annually. Consequently, approximately 65% of owners received no prey in a given season, but this declined to 22% after eight seasons. The estimated mean predation rate was 18.3 prey cat−1 year−1 but this varied markedly both spatially and temporally: per capita predation rates declined with increasing cat density. Comparisons with estimates of the density of six common bird prey species indicated that cats killed numbers equivalent to adult density on c. 39% of occasions. Population modeling studies suggest that such predation rates could significantly reduce the size of local bird populations for common urban species. Conversely, most urban residents did not consider cat predation to be a significant problem. Collar-mounted anti-predation devices were the only management action acceptable to the majority of urban residents (65%), but were less acceptable to cat-owners because of perceived risks to their pets; only 24% of cats were fitted with such devices. Overall, cat predation did appear to be of sufficient magnitude to affect some prey populations, although further investigation of some key aspects of cat predation is warranted. Management of the predation behavior of urban cat populations in the UK is likely to be challenging and achieving this would require considerable engagement with cat owners. PMID:23173057

Consequences of severe habitat fragmentation on density, genetics, and spatial capture-recapture analysis of a small bear population.

PubMed

Murphy, Sean M; Augustine, Ben C; Ulrey, Wade A; Guthrie, Joseph M; Scheick, Brian K; McCown, J Walter; Cox, John J

2017-01-01

Loss and fragmentation of natural habitats caused by human land uses have subdivided several formerly contiguous large carnivore populations into multiple small and often isolated subpopulations, which can reduce genetic variation and lead to precipitous population declines. Substantial habitat loss and fragmentation from urban development and agriculture expansion relegated the Highlands-Glades subpopulation (HGS) of Florida, USA, black bears (Ursus americanus floridanus) to prolonged isolation; increasing human land development is projected to cause ≥ 50% loss of remaining natural habitats occupied by the HGS in coming decades. We conducted a noninvasive genetic spatial capture-recapture study to quantitatively describe the degree of contemporary habitat fragmentation and investigate the consequences of habitat fragmentation on population density and genetics of the HGS. Remaining natural habitats sustaining the HGS were significantly more fragmented and patchier than those supporting Florida's largest black bear subpopulation. Genetic diversity was low (AR = 3.57; HE = 0.49) and effective population size was small (NE = 25 bears), both of which remained unchanged over a period spanning one bear generation despite evidence of some immigration. Subpopulation density (0.054 bear/km2) was among the lowest reported for black bears, was significantly female-biased, and corresponded to a subpopulation size of 98 bears in available habitat. Conserving remaining natural habitats in the area occupied by the small, genetically depauperate HGS, possibly through conservation easements and government land acquisition, is likely the most important immediate step to ensuring continued persistence of bears in this area. Our study also provides evidence that preferentially placing detectors (e.g., hair traps or cameras) primarily in quality habitat across fragmented landscapes poses a challenge to estimating density-habitat covariate relationships using spatial capture-recapture models. Because habitat fragmentation and loss are likely to increase in severity globally, further investigation of the influence of habitat fragmentation and detector placement on estimation of this relationship is warranted.

Consequences of severe habitat fragmentation on density, genetics, and spatial capture-recapture analysis of a small bear population

PubMed Central

Guthrie, Joseph M.; Scheick, Brian K.; McCown, J. Walter; Cox, John J.

2017-01-01

Loss and fragmentation of natural habitats caused by human land uses have subdivided several formerly contiguous large carnivore populations into multiple small and often isolated subpopulations, which can reduce genetic variation and lead to precipitous population declines. Substantial habitat loss and fragmentation from urban development and agriculture expansion relegated the Highlands-Glades subpopulation (HGS) of Florida, USA, black bears (Ursus americanus floridanus) to prolonged isolation; increasing human land development is projected to cause ≥ 50% loss of remaining natural habitats occupied by the HGS in coming decades. We conducted a noninvasive genetic spatial capture-recapture study to quantitatively describe the degree of contemporary habitat fragmentation and investigate the consequences of habitat fragmentation on population density and genetics of the HGS. Remaining natural habitats sustaining the HGS were significantly more fragmented and patchier than those supporting Florida’s largest black bear subpopulation. Genetic diversity was low (AR = 3.57; HE = 0.49) and effective population size was small (NE = 25 bears), both of which remained unchanged over a period spanning one bear generation despite evidence of some immigration. Subpopulation density (0.054 bear/km2) was among the lowest reported for black bears, was significantly female-biased, and corresponded to a subpopulation size of 98 bears in available habitat. Conserving remaining natural habitats in the area occupied by the small, genetically depauperate HGS, possibly through conservation easements and government land acquisition, is likely the most important immediate step to ensuring continued persistence of bears in this area. Our study also provides evidence that preferentially placing detectors (e.g., hair traps or cameras) primarily in quality habitat across fragmented landscapes poses a challenge to estimating density-habitat covariate relationships using spatial capture-recapture models. Because habitat fragmentation and loss are likely to increase in severity globally, further investigation of the influence of habitat fragmentation and detector placement on estimation of this relationship is warranted. PMID:28738077

Competition amplifies drought stress in forests across broad climatic and compositional gradients

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gleason, Kelly; Bradford, John B.; Bottero, Alessandra; D'Amato, Tony; Fraver, Shawn; Palik, Brian J.; Battaglia, Michael; Iverson, Louis R.; Kenefic, Laura; Kern, Christel C.

2017-01-01

Forests around the world are experiencing increasingly severe droughts and elevated competitive intensity due to increased tree density. However, the influence of interactions between drought and competition on forest growth remains poorly understood. Using a unique dataset of stand-scale dendrochronology sampled from 6405 trees, we quantified how annual growth of entire tree populations responds to drought and competition in eight, long-term (multi-decadal), experiments with replicated levels of density (e.g., competitive intensity) arrayed across a broad climatic and compositional gradient. Forest growth (cumulative individual tree growth within a stand) declined during drought, especially during more severe drought in drier climates. Forest growth declines were exacerbated by high density at all sites but one, particularly during periods of more severe drought. Surprisingly, the influence of forest density was persistent overall, but these density impacts were greater in the humid sites than in more arid sites. Significant density impacts occurred during periods of more extreme drought, and during warmer temperatures in the semi-arid sites but during periods of cooler temperatures in the humid sites. Because competition has a consistent influence over growth response to drought, maintaining forests at lower density may enhance resilience to drought in all climates.

Power of sign surveys to monitor population trend

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kendall, Katherine C.; Metzgar, Lee H.; Patterson, David A.; Steele, Brian M.

1992-01-01

The urgent need for an effective monitoring scheme for grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) populations led us to investigate the effort required to detect changes in populations of low—density dispersed animals, using sign (mainly scats and tracks) they leave on trails. We surveyed trails in Glacier National Park for bear tracks and scats during five consecutive years. Using these data, we modeled the occurrence of bear sign on trails, then estimated the power of various sampling schemes. Specifically, we explored the power of bear sign surveys to detect a 20% decline in sign occurrence. Realistic sampling schemes appear feasible if the density of sign is high enough, and we provide guidelines for designs with adequate replication to monitor long—term trends of dispersed populations using sign occurrences on trails.

Quantifying changes and influences on mottled duck density in Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Beth; Haukos, David A.; Walther, Patrick

2018-01-01

Understanding the relative influence of environmental and intrinsic effects on populations is important for managing and conserving harvested species, especially those species inhabiting changing environments. Additionally, climate change can increase the uncertainty associated with management of species in these changing environments, making understanding factors affecting their populations even more important. Coastal ecosystems are particularly threatened by climate change; the combined effects of increasing severe weather events, sea level rise, and drought will likely have non-linear effects on coastal marsh wildlife species and their associated habitats. A species of conservation concern that persists in these coastal areas is the mottled duck (Anas fulvigula). Mottled ducks in the western Gulf Coast are approximately 50% below target abundance numbers established by the Gulf Coast Joint Venture for Texas and Louisiana, USA. Although evidence for declines in mottled duck abundance is apparent, specific causes of the decrease remain unknown. Our goals were to determine where the largest declines in mottled duck population were occurring along the system of Texas Gulf Coast National Wildlife Refuges and quantify the relative contribution of environmental and intrinsic effects on changes to relative population density. We modeled aerial survey data of mottled duck density along the Texas Gulf Coast from 1986–2015 to quantify effects of extreme weather events on an index to mottled duck density using the United States Climate Extremes Index and Palmer Drought Severity Index. Our results indicate that decreases in abundance are best described by an increase in days with extreme 1-day precipitation from June to November (hurricane season) and an increase in drought severity. Better understanding those portions of the life cycle affected by environmental conditions, and how to manage mottled duck habitat in conjunction with these events will likely be key to persistence of the species under future environmental conditions.

Race, APOL1 Risk, and eGFR Decline in the General Population

PubMed Central

Rebholz, Casey M.; Chen, Yuan; Rawlings, Andreea M.; Estrella, Michelle M.; Selvin, Elizabeth; Appel, Lawrence J.; Tin, Adrienne; Coresh, Josef

2016-01-01

The APOL1 high-risk genotype, present in approximately 13% of blacks in the United States, is a risk factor for kidney function decline in populations with CKD. It is unknown whether genetic screening is indicated in the general population. We evaluated the prognosis of APOL1 high-risk status in participants in the population-based Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, including associations with eGFR decline, variability in eGFR decline, and related adverse health events (AKI, ESRD, hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, pre-ESRD and total hospitalization rate, and mortality). Among 15,140 ARIC participants followed from 1987–1989 (baseline) to 2011–2013, 75.3% were white, 21.5% were black/APOL1 low-risk, and 3.2% were black/APOL1 high-risk. In a demographic-adjusted analysis, blacks had a higher risk for all assessed adverse health events; however, in analyses adjusted for comorbid conditions and socioeconomic status, blacks had a higher risk for hypertension, diabetes, and ESRD only. Among blacks, the APOL1 high-risk genotype associated only with higher risk of ESRD in a fully adjusted analysis. Black race and APOL1 high-risk status were associated with faster eGFR decline (P<0.001 for each). However, we detected substantial overlap among the groups: median (10th–90th percentile) unadjusted eGFR decline was 1.5 (1.0–2.2) ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year for whites, 2.1 (1.4–3.1) ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year for blacks with APOL1 low-risk status, and 2.3 (1.5–3.5) ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year for blacks with APOL1 high-risk status. The high variability in eGFR decline among blacks with and without the APOL1 high-risk genotype suggests that population-based screening is not yet justified. PMID:26966015

Race, APOL1 Risk, and eGFR Decline in the General Population.

PubMed

Grams, Morgan E; Rebholz, Casey M; Chen, Yuan; Rawlings, Andreea M; Estrella, Michelle M; Selvin, Elizabeth; Appel, Lawrence J; Tin, Adrienne; Coresh, Josef

2016-09-01

The APOL1 high-risk genotype, present in approximately 13% of blacks in the United States, is a risk factor for kidney function decline in populations with CKD. It is unknown whether genetic screening is indicated in the general population. We evaluated the prognosis of APOL1 high-risk status in participants in the population-based Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, including associations with eGFR decline, variability in eGFR decline, and related adverse health events (AKI, ESRD, hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, pre-ESRD and total hospitalization rate, and mortality). Among 15,140 ARIC participants followed from 1987-1989 (baseline) to 2011-2013, 75.3% were white, 21.5% were black/APOL1 low-risk, and 3.2% were black/APOL1 high-risk. In a demographic-adjusted analysis, blacks had a higher risk for all assessed adverse health events; however, in analyses adjusted for comorbid conditions and socioeconomic status, blacks had a higher risk for hypertension, diabetes, and ESRD only. Among blacks, the APOL1 high-risk genotype associated only with higher risk of ESRD in a fully adjusted analysis. Black race and APOL1 high-risk status were associated with faster eGFR decline (P<0.001 for each). However, we detected substantial overlap among the groups: median (10th-90th percentile) unadjusted eGFR decline was 1.5 (1.0-2.2) ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year for whites, 2.1 (1.4-3.1) ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year for blacks with APOL1 low-risk status, and 2.3 (1.5-3.5) ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year for blacks with APOL1 high-risk status. The high variability in eGFR decline among blacks with and without the APOL1 high-risk genotype suggests that population-based screening is not yet justified. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Density-Dependent Regulation of Brook Trout Population Dynamics along a Core-Periphery Distribution Gradient in a Central Appalachian Watershed

PubMed Central

Huntsman, Brock M.; Petty, J. Todd

2014-01-01

Spatial population models predict strong density-dependence and relatively stable population dynamics near the core of a species' distribution with increasing variance and importance of density-independent processes operating towards the population periphery. Using a 10-year data set and an information-theoretic approach, we tested a series of candidate models considering density-dependent and density-independent controls on brook trout population dynamics across a core-periphery distribution gradient within a central Appalachian watershed. We sampled seven sub-populations with study sites ranging in drainage area from 1.3–60 km2 and long-term average densities ranging from 0.335–0.006 trout/m. Modeled response variables included per capita population growth rate of young-of-the-year, adult, and total brook trout. We also quantified a stock-recruitment relationship for the headwater population and coefficients of variability in mean trout density for all sub-populations over time. Density-dependent regulation was prevalent throughout the study area regardless of stream size. However, density-independent temperature models carried substantial weight and likely reflect the effect of year-to-year variability in water temperature on trout dispersal between cold tributaries and warm main stems. Estimated adult carrying capacities decreased exponentially with increasing stream size from 0.24 trout/m in headwaters to 0.005 trout/m in the main stem. Finally, temporal variance in brook trout population size was lowest in the high-density headwater population, tended to peak in mid-sized streams and declined slightly in the largest streams with the lowest densities. Our results provide support for the hypothesis that local density-dependent processes have a strong control on brook trout dynamics across the entire distribution gradient. However, the mechanisms of regulation likely shift from competition for limited food and space in headwater streams to competition for thermal refugia in larger main stems. It also is likely that source-sink dynamics and dispersal from small headwater habitats may partially influence brook trout population dynamics in the main stem. PMID:24618602

Chytridiomycosis in frogs of Mount Gede Pangrango, Indonesia.

PubMed

Kusrini, M D; Skerratt, L F; Garland, S; Berger, L; Endarwin, W

2008-12-22

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a fungus recognised as one of the causes of global amphibian population declines. To assess its occurrence, we conducted PCR diagnostic assays of 147 swab samples, from 13 species of frogs from Mount Gede Pangrango National Park, Indonesia. Four swab samples, from Rhacophorus javanus, Rana chalconota, Leptobrachium hasseltii and Limnonectes microdiscus, were positive for Bd and had low to moderate levels of infection. The sample from L. hasseltii was from a tadpole with mouthpart deformities and infection was confirmed by histology and immunohistochemistry. An additional sample from Leptophryne cruentata showed a very low level of infection (< or = 1 zoospore equivalent). This is the first record of Bd in Indonesia and in Southeast Asia, dramatically extending the global distribution of Bd, with important consequences for international amphibian disease control, conservation and trade. Consistent with declines in amphibian populations caused by Bd in other parts of the world, evidence exists for the decline and possible extirpation of amphibian populations at high elevations and some decline with recovery of populations at lower elevations on this mountain. Therefore, it is essential to manage Bd in Indonesia where it is likely to be threatening amphibian populations. This will require a national strategy to mitigate the spread of Bd in Indonesia and neighboring countries as well as the impact of that spread. It is also important to collect information on the extent of the impact of Bd on frog populations in Indonesia.

Sink populations in carnivore management: cougar demography and immigration in a hunted population.

PubMed

Robinson, Hugh S; Wielgus, Robert B; Cooley, Hilary S; Cooley, Skye W

2008-06-01

Carnivores are widely hunted for both sport and population control, especially where they conflict with human interests. It is widely believed that sport hunting is effective in reducing carnivore populations and related human-carnivore conflicts, while maintaining viable populations. However, the way in which carnivore populations respond to harvest can vary greatly depending on their social structure, reproductive strategies, and dispersal patterns. For example, hunted cougar (Puma concolor) populations have shown a great degree of resiliency. Although hunting cougars on a broad geographic scale (> 2000 km2) has reduced densities, hunting of smaller areas (i.e., game management units, < 1000 km2), could conceivably fail because of increased immigration from adjacent source areas. We monitored a heavily hunted population from 2001 to 2006 to test for the effects of hunting at a small scale (< 1000 km2) and to gauge whether population control was achieved (lambda < or = 1.0) or if hunting losses were negated by increased immigration allowing the population to remain stable or increase (lambda > or = 1.0). The observed growth rate of 1.00 was significantly higher than our predicted survival/fecundity growth rates (using a Leslie matrix) of 0.89 (deterministic) and 0.84 (stochastic), with the difference representing an 11-16% annual immigration rate. We observed no decline in density of the total population or the adult population, but a significant decrease in the average age of independent males. We found that the male component of the population was increasing (observed male population growth rate, lambda(OM) = 1.09), masking a decrease in the female component (lambda(OF) = 0.91). Our data support the compensatory immigration sink hypothesis; cougar removal in small game management areas (< 1000 km2) increased immigration and recruitment of younger animals from adjacent areas, resulting in little or no reduction in local cougar densities and a shift in population structure toward younger animals. Hunting in high-quality habitats may create an attractive sink, leading to misinterpretation of population trends and masking population declines in the sink and surrounding source areas.

Compact or spread? A quantitative spatial model of urban areas in Europe since 1990

PubMed Central

Haase, Dagmar; Haase, Annegret

2018-01-01

Changes in urban residential density represent an important issue in terms of land consumption, the conservation of ecosystems, air quality and related human health problems, as well as the consequential challenges for urban and regional planning. It is the decline of residential densities, in particular, that has often been used as the very definition of sprawl, describing a phenomenon that has been extensively studied in the United States and in Western Europe. Whilst these studies provide valuable insights into urbanization processes, only a handful of them have reflected the uneven dynamics of simultaneous urban growth and shrinkage, using residential density changes as a key indicator to uncover the underlying dynamics. This paper introduces a contrasting analysis of recent developments in both de- and re-concentration, defined as decreasing or increasing residential densities, respectively. Using a large sample of European cities, it detects differences in density changes between successional population growth/decline. The paper shows that dedensification, found in some large cities globally, is not a universal phenomenon in growing urban areas; neither the increasing disproportion between a declining demand for and an increasing supply of residential areas nor actual concentration processes in cities were found. Thus, the paper provides a new, very detailed perspective on (de)densification in both shrinking and growing cities and how they specifically contribute to current land take in Europe. PMID:29489851

Compact or spread? A quantitative spatial model of urban areas in Europe since 1990.

PubMed

Wolff, Manuel; Haase, Dagmar; Haase, Annegret

2018-01-01

Changes in urban residential density represent an important issue in terms of land consumption, the conservation of ecosystems, air quality and related human health problems, as well as the consequential challenges for urban and regional planning. It is the decline of residential densities, in particular, that has often been used as the very definition of sprawl, describing a phenomenon that has been extensively studied in the United States and in Western Europe. Whilst these studies provide valuable insights into urbanization processes, only a handful of them have reflected the uneven dynamics of simultaneous urban growth and shrinkage, using residential density changes as a key indicator to uncover the underlying dynamics. This paper introduces a contrasting analysis of recent developments in both de- and re-concentration, defined as decreasing or increasing residential densities, respectively. Using a large sample of European cities, it detects differences in density changes between successional population growth/decline. The paper shows that dedensification, found in some large cities globally, is not a universal phenomenon in growing urban areas; neither the increasing disproportion between a declining demand for and an increasing supply of residential areas nor actual concentration processes in cities were found. Thus, the paper provides a new, very detailed perspective on (de)densification in both shrinking and growing cities and how they specifically contribute to current land take in Europe.

Smoking and obesity make a bad problem worse: genetics and lifestyle affect high density lipoprotein levels in Turks.

PubMed

Hodoğlugil, Uğur; Mahley, Robert W

2006-03-01

Low levels of high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) are an independent risk factor for coronary heart disease. The Turkish Heart Study revealed very low levels of plasma HDL-C in the Turkish population, a fact confirmed by the Heart Disease and Risk Factors in Turkish Adults study. Low HDL-C levels have also been observed in Turks living in the United States, Germany, and the Netherlands. Dietary habits do not explain the low HDL-C levels, which were found in Turkish Heart Study participants from six regions of Turkey with significant differences in typical diets. Among newborns and pre-pubescent children, plasma HDL-C levels were similar in Turks and western Europeans. After puberty, however, HDL-C levels declined significantly in Turkish boys and girls. These results suggest a genetic basis for the low HDL-C levels. In fact, hepatic lipase activity modulated by sex hormones was 25-30% higher in the Turkish population than in other populations. Elevated hepatic lipase activity is clearly associated with low plasma HDL-C in many studies. Results of a recent genome-wide scan for plasma HDL-C in Turks revealed a linkage on chromosome 15q22 where the hepatic lipase gene is located and that low HDL-C was 80% heritable. In addition, evidence for an interaction between HDL-C levels and modifiable environmental factors, particularly smoking and obesity, came from the study of cholesterol ester transfer protein TaqIB polymorphism. This polymorphism was associated with plasma HDL-C levels in Turks. Subjects with the B2B2 genotype-both smokers and nonsmokers-had higher plasma HDL-C levels. Interestingly, B2B2 subjects were protected from the HDL-C-lowering effect of smoking, whereas B1B1 subjects who smoked had significantly lower HDL-C levels. A similar interaction was observed between TaqIB polymorphism and obesity. In conclusion, low HDL-C levels in Turks were modulated by genetic factors and their interaction with modifiable environmental factors, such as smoking and obesity.

10 CFR 960.5-2-1 - Population density and distribution.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Population density and distribution. 960.5-2-1 Section 960... Population density and distribution. (a) Qualifying condition. The site shall be located such that, during... specified in § 960.5-1(a)(1). (b) Favorable conditions. (1) A low population density in the general region...

10 CFR 960.5-2-1 - Population density and distribution.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Population density and distribution. 960.5-2-1 Section 960... Population density and distribution. (a) Qualifying condition. The site shall be located such that, during... specified in § 960.5-1(a)(1). (b) Favorable conditions. (1) A low population density in the general region...

10 CFR 960.5-2-1 - Population density and distribution.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Population density and distribution. 960.5-2-1 Section 960... Population density and distribution. (a) Qualifying condition. The site shall be located such that, during... specified in § 960.5-1(a)(1). (b) Favorable conditions. (1) A low population density in the general region...

10 CFR 960.5-2-1 - Population density and distribution.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Population density and distribution. 960.5-2-1 Section 960... Population density and distribution. (a) Qualifying condition. The site shall be located such that, during... specified in § 960.5-1(a)(1). (b) Favorable conditions. (1) A low population density in the general region...

β-Amyloid binding in elderly subjects with declining or stable episodic memory function measured with PET and [¹¹C]AZD2184.

PubMed

Mattsson, Patrik; Forsberg, Anton; Persson, Jonas; Nyberg, Lars; Nilsson, Lars-Göran; Halldin, Christer; Farde, Lars

2015-09-01

Cognitive decline has been suggested as an early marker for later onset of Alzheimer's disease. We therefore explored the relationship between decline in episodic memory and β-amyloid using positron emission tomography (PET) and [(11)C]AZD2184, a radioligand with potential to detect low levels of amyloid deposits. Healthy elderly subjects with declining (n = 10) or stable (n = 10) episodic memory over 15 years were recruited from the population-based Betula study and examined with PET. Brain radioactivity was measured after intravenous administration of [(11)C]AZD2184. The binding potential BP ND was calculated using linear graphical analysis with the cerebellum as reference region. The binding of [(11)C]AZD2184 in total grey matter was generally low in the declining group, whereas some binding could be observed in the stable group. Mean BP ND was significantly higher in the stable group compared to the declining group (p = 0.019). An observation was that the three subjects with the highest BP ND were ApoE ε4 allele carriers. We conclude that cognitive decline in the general population does not seem to stand by itself as an early predictor for amyloid deposits.

Quantitative Relationship of Soil Texture with the Observed Population Density Reduction of Heterodera glycines after Annual Corn Rotation in Nebraska

PubMed Central

Pérez-Hernández, Oscar; Giesler, Loren J.

2014-01-01

Soil texture has been commonly associated with the population density of Heterodera glycines (soybean cyst nematode: SCN), but such an association has been mainly described in terms of textural classes. In this study, multivariate analysis and a generalized linear modeling approach were used to elucidate the quantitative relationship of soil texture with the observed SCN population density reduction after annual corn rotation in Nebraska. Forty-five commercial production fields were sampled in 2009, 2010, and 2011 and SCN population density (eggs/100 cm3 of soil) for each field was determined before (Pi) and after (Pf) annual corn rotation from ten 3 × 3-m sampling grids. Principal components analysis revealed that, compared with silt and clay, sand had a stronger association with SCN Pi and Pf. Cluster analysis using the average linkage method and confirmed through 1,000 bootstrap simulations identified two groups: one corresponding to predominant silt-and-clay fields and other to sand-predominant fields. This grouping suggested that SCN relative percent population decline was higher in the sandy than in the silt-and-clay predominant group. However, when groups were compared for their SCN population density reduction using Pf as the response, Pi as a covariate, and incorporating the year and field variability, a negative binomial generalized linear model indicated that the SCN population density reduction was not statistically different between the sand-predominant field group and the silt-and-clay predominant group. PMID:24987160

Indicators of fishing mortality on reef-shark populations in the world's first shark sanctuary: the need for surveillance and enforcement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vianna, Gabriel M. S.; Meekan, Mark G.; Ruppert, Jonathan L. W.; Bornovski, Tova H.; Meeuwig, Jessica J.

2016-09-01

Shark sanctuaries are promoted as a management tool to achieve conservation goals following global declines of shark populations. We assessed the status of reef-shark populations and indicators of fishing pressure across the world's first shark sanctuary in Palau. Using underwater surveys and stereophotogrammetry, we documented large differences in abundance and size structure of shark populations across the sanctuary, with a strong negative relationship between shark densities and derelict fishing gear on reefs. Densities of 10.9 ± 4.7 (mean ± SE) sharks ha-1 occurred on reefs adjacent to the most populated islands of Palau, contrasting with lower densities of 1.6 ± 0.8 sharks ha-1 on remote uninhabited reefs, where surveillance and enforcement was limited. Our observations suggest that fishing still remains a major factor structuring shark populations in Palau, demonstrating that there is an urgent need for better enforcement and surveillance that targets both illegal and licensed commercial fisheries to provide effective protection for sharks within the sanctuary.

Population age and initial density in a patchy environment affect the occurrence of abrupt transitions in a birth-and-death model of Taylor's law

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jiang, Jiang; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Zhang, B.; Cohen, J.E.

2014-01-01

Taylor's power law describes an empirical relationship between the mean and variance of population densities in field data, in which the variance varies as a power, b, of the mean. Most studies report values of b varying between 1 and 2. However, Cohen (2014a) showed recently that smooth changes in environmental conditions in a model can lead to an abrupt, infinite change in b. To understand what factors can influence the occurrence of an abrupt change in b, we used both mathematical analysis and Monte Carlo samples from a model in which populations of the same species settled on patches, and each population followed independently a stochastic linear birth-and-death process. We investigated how the power relationship responds to a smooth change of population growth rate, under different sampling strategies, initial population density, and population age. We showed analytically that, if the initial populations differ only in density, and samples are taken from all patches after the same time period following a major invasion event, Taylor's law holds with exponent b=1, regardless of the population growth rate. If samples are taken at different times from patches that have the same initial population densities, we calculate an abrupt shift of b, as predicted by Cohen (2014a). The loss of linearity between log variance and log mean is a leading indicator of the abrupt shift. If both initial population densities and population ages vary among patches, estimates of b lie between 1 and 2, as in most empirical studies. But the value of b declines to ~1 as the system approaches a critical point. Our results can inform empirical studies that might be designed to demonstrate an abrupt shift in Taylor's law.

Comparison of Intrinsic Rate of Different House Fly Densities in a Simulated Condition: A Prediction for House Fly Population and Control Threshold.

PubMed

Ong, Song-Quan; Ahmad, Hamdan; Jaal, Zairi; Rus, Adanan; Fadzlah, Fadhlina Hazwani Mohd

2017-01-01

Determining the control threshold for a pest is common prior to initiating a pest control program; however, previous studies related to the house fly control threshold for a poultry farm are insufficient for determining such a threshold. This study aimed to predict the population changes of house fly population by comparing the intrinsic rate of increase (r m ) for different house fly densities in a simulated system. This study first defined the knee points of a known population growth curve as a control threshold by comparing the r m of five densities of house flies in a simulated condition. Later, to understand the interactions between the larval and adult populations, the correlation between larval and adult capacity rate (r c ) was studied. The r m values of 300- and 500-fly densities were significantly higher compared with the r m values at densities of 50 and 100 flies. This result indicated their representative indices as candidates for a control threshold. The r c of larval and adult populations were negatively correlated with densities of fewer than 300 flies; this implicated adult populations with fewer than 300 flies as declining while the larval population was growing; therefore, control approaches should focus on the immature stages. The results in the present study suggest a control threshold for house fly populations. Future works should focus on calibrating the threshold indices in field conditions. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Population size, survival, growth, and movements of Rana sierrae

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fellers, Gary M.; Kleeman, Patrick M.; Miller, David A. W.; Halstead, Brian J.; Link, William

2013-01-01

Based on 2431 captures of 757 individual frogs over a 9-yr period, we found that the population of R. sierrae in one meadow–stream complex in Yosemite National Park ranged from an estimated 45 to 115 adult frogs. Rana sierrae at our relatively low elevation site (2200 m) grew at a fast rate (K = 0.73–0.78), had high overwintering survival rates (44.6–95%), lived a long time (up to 16 yr), and tended to be fairly sedentary during the summer (100% minimum convex polygon annual home ranges of 139 m2) but had low year-to-year site fidelity. Even though the amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Bd) has been present in the population for at least 13 yr, there was no clear downward trend as might be expected from reports of R. sierrae population declines associated with Bd or from reports of widespread population decline of R. sierrae throughout its range.

Fitness declines towards range limits and local adaptation to climate affect dispersal evolution during climate-induced range shifts.

PubMed

Hargreaves, A L; Bailey, S F; Laird, R A

2015-08-01

Dispersal ability will largely determine whether species track their climatic niches during climate change, a process especially important for populations at contracting (low-latitude/low-elevation) range limits that otherwise risk extinction. We investigate whether dispersal evolution at contracting range limits is facilitated by two processes that potentially enable edge populations to experience and adjust to the effects of climate deterioration before they cause extinction: (i) climate-induced fitness declines towards range limits and (ii) local adaptation to a shifting climate gradient. We simulate a species distributed continuously along a temperature gradient using a spatially explicit, individual-based model. We compare range-wide dispersal evolution during climate stability vs. directional climate change, with uniform fitness vs. fitness that declines towards range limits (RLs), and for a single climate genotype vs. multiple genotypes locally adapted to temperature. During climate stability, dispersal decreased towards RLs when fitness was uniform, but increased when fitness declined towards RLs, due to highly dispersive genotypes maintaining sink populations at RLs, increased kin selection in smaller populations, and an emergent fitness asymmetry that favoured dispersal in low-quality habitat. However, this initial dispersal advantage at low-fitness RLs did not facilitate climate tracking, as it was outweighed by an increased probability of extinction. Locally adapted genotypes benefited from staying close to their climate optima; this selected against dispersal under stable climates but for increased dispersal throughout shifting ranges, compared to cases without local adaptation. Dispersal increased at expanding RLs in most scenarios, but only increased at the range centre and contracting RLs given local adaptation to climate. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Temporal trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, bone mineral density, and fracture rates: a population-based historical cohort study.

PubMed

Leslie, William D; Lix, Lisa M; Yogendran, Marina S; Morin, Suzanne N; Metge, Colleen J; Majumdar, Sumit R

2014-04-01

Diverging international trends in fracture rates have been observed, with most reports showing that fracture rates have stabilized or decreased in North American and many European populations. We studied two complementary population-based historical cohorts from the Province of Manitoba, Canada (1996-2006) to determine whether declining osteoporotic fracture rates in Canada are attributable to trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, or bone mineral density (BMD). The Population Fracture Registry included women aged 50 years and older with major osteoporotic fractures, and was used to assess impact of changes in osteoporosis treatment. The BMD Registry included all women aged 50 years and older undergoing BMD tests, and was used to assess impact of changes in obesity and BMD. Model-based estimates of temporal changes in fracture rates (Fracture Registry) were calculated. Temporal changes in obesity and BMD and their association with fracture rates (BMD Registry) were estimated. In the Fracture Registry (n=27,341), fracture rates declined 1.6% per year (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3% to 2.0%). Although osteoporosis treatment increased from 5.6% to 17.4%, the decline in fractures was independent of osteoporosis treatment. In the BMD Registry (n=36,587), obesity increased from 12.7% to 27.4%. Femoral neck BMD increased 0.52% per year and lumbar spine BMD increased 0.32% per year after covariate adjustment (p<0.001). Major osteoporotic fracture rates decreased in models that did not include femoral neck BMD (fully adjusted annual change -1.8%; 95% CI, -2.9 to -0.5), but adjusting for femoral neck BMD accounted for the observed reduction (annual change -0.5%; 95% CI, -1.8 to +1.0). In summary, major osteoporotic fracture rates declined substantially and linearly from 1996 to 2006, and this was explained by improvements in BMD rather than greater rates of obesity or osteoporosis treatment. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Analysis of population structure and genetic history of cattle breeds based on high-density SNP data

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Advances in single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping microarrays have facilitated a new understanding of population structure and evolutionary history for several species. Most existing studies in livestock were based on low density SNP arrays. The first wave of low density SNP studies on cat...

Linking removal targets to the ecological effects of invaders: a predictive model and field test.

PubMed

Green, Stephanie J; Dulvy, Nicholas K; Brooks, Annabelle M L; Akins, John L; Cooper, Andrew B; Miller, Skylar; Côté, Isabelle M

Species invasions have a range of negative effects on recipient ecosystems, and many occur at a scale and magnitude that preclude complete eradication. When complete extirpation is unlikely with available management resources, an effective strategy may be to suppress invasive populations below levels predicted to cause undesirable ecological change. We illustrated this approach by developing and testing targets for the control of invasive Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles) on Western Atlantic coral reefs. We first developed a size-structured simulation model of predation by lionfish on native fish communities, which we used to predict threshold densities of lionfish beyond which native fish biomass should decline. We then tested our predictions by experimentally manipulating lionfish densities above or below reef-specific thresholds, and monitoring the consequences for native fish populations on 24 Bahamian patch reefs over 18 months. We found that reducing lionfish below predicted threshold densities effectively protected native fish community biomass from predation-induced declines. Reductions in density of 25–92%, depending on the reef, were required to suppress lionfish below levels predicted to overconsume prey. On reefs where lionfish were kept below threshold densities, native prey fish biomass increased by 50–70%. Gains in small (<6 cm) size classes of native fishes translated into lagged increases in larger size classes over time. The biomass of larger individuals (>15 cm total length), including ecologically important grazers and economically important fisheries species, had increased by 10–65% by the end of the experiment. Crucially, similar gains in prey fish biomass were realized on reefs subjected to partial and full removal of lionfish, but partial removals took 30% less time to implement. By contrast, the biomass of small native fishes declined by >50% on all reefs with lionfish densities exceeding reef-specific thresholds. Large inter-reef variation in the biomass of prey fishes at the outset of the study, which influences the threshold density of lionfish, means that we could not identify a single rule of thumb for guiding control efforts. However, our model provides a method for setting reef-specific targets for population control using local monitoring data. Our work is the first to demonstrate that for ongoing invasions, suppressing invaders below densities that cause environmental harm can have a similar effect, in terms of protecting the native ecosystem on a local scale, to achieving complete eradication.

Model-Based Predictions of the Effects of Harvest Mortality on Population Size and Trend of Yellow-Billed Loons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmutz, Joel A.

2009-01-01

Yellow-billed loons (Gavia adamsii) breed in low densities in northern tundra habitats in Alaska, Canada, and Russia. They migrate to coastal marine habitats at mid to high latitudes where they spend their winters. Harvest may occur throughout the annual cycle, but of particular concern are recent reports of harvest from the Bering Strait region, which lies between Alaska and Russia and is an area used by yellow-billed loons during migration. Annual harvest for this region was reported to be 317, 45, and 1,077 during 2004, 2005, and 2007, respectively. I developed a population model to assess the effect of this reported harvest on population size and trend of yellow-billed loons. Because of the uncertainty regarding actual harvest and definition of the breeding population(s) affected by this harvest, I considered 25 different scenarios. Predicted trends across these 25 scenarios ranged from stability to rapid decline (24 percent per year) with halving of the population in 3 years. Through an assessment of literature and unpublished satellite tracking data, I suggest that the most likely of these 25 scenarios is one where the migrant population subjected to harvest in the Bering Strait includes individuals from breeding populations in Alaska (Arctic coastal plain and the Kotzebue region) and eastern Russia, and for which the magnitude of harvest varies among years and emulates the annual variation of reported harvest during 2004-07 (317, 45, and 1,077 yellow-billed loons). This scenario, which assumes no movement of Canadian breeders through the Bering Strait, predicts a 4.6 percent rate of annual population decline, which would halve the populations in 15 years. Although these model outputs reflect the best available information, confidence in these predictions and applicable scenarios would be greatly enhanced by more information on harvest, rates of survival and reproduction, and migratory pathways.

Systems evaluation of low density air transportation concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bruce, R. W.; Webb, H. M.

1972-01-01

Methods were studied for improving air transportation to low-density population regions in the U.S. through the application of new aeronautical technology. The low-density air service concepts are developed for selected regions, and critical technologies that presently limit the effective application of low-density air transportation systems are identified.

Evolutionary speed of species invasions.

PubMed

García-Ramos, Gisela; Rodríguez, Diego

2002-04-01

Successful invasion may depend of the capacity of a species to adjust genetically to a spatially varying environment. This research modeled a species invasion by examining the interaction between a quantitative genetic trait and population density. It assumed: (I) a quantitative genetic trait describes the adaptation of an individual to its local ecological conditions; (2) populations far from the local optimum grow more slowly than those near the optimum; and (3) the evolution of a trait depends on local population density, because differences in local population densities cause asymmetrical gene flow. This genetics-density interaction determined the propagation speed of populations. Numerical simulations showed that populations spread by advancing as two synchronic traveling waves, one for population density and one for trait adaptation. The form of the density wave was a step front that advances homogenizing populations at their carrying capacity; the adaptation wave was a curve with finite slope that homogenizes populations at full adaptation. The largest speed of population expansion, for a dimensionless analysis, corresponded to an almost homogeneous spatial environment when this model approached an ecological description such as the Fisher-Skellam's model. A large genetic response also favored faster speeds. Evolutionary speeds, in a natural scale, showed a wide range of rates that were also slower compared to models that only consider demographics. This evolutionary speed increased with high heritability, strong stabilizing selection, and high intrinsic growth rate. It decreased for steeper environmental gradients. Also indicated was an optimal dispersal rate over which evolutionary speed declined. This is expected because dispersal moves individuals further, but homogenizes populations genetically, making them maladapted. The evolutionary speed was compared to observed data. Furthermore, a moderate increase in the speed of expansion was predicted for ecological changes related to global warming.

Aphid vector population density determines the emergence of necrogenic satellite RNAs in populations of cucumber mosaic virus.

PubMed

Betancourt, Mónica; Fraile, Aurora; Milgroom, Michael G; García-Arenal, Fernando

2016-06-01

The satellite RNAs of cucumber mosaic virus (CMV) that induce systemic necrosis in tomato plants (N-satRNA) multiply to high levels in the infected host while severely depressing CMV accumulation and, hence, its aphid transmission efficiency. As N-satRNAs are transmitted into CMV particles, the conditions for N-satRNA emergence are not obvious. Model analyses with realistic parameter values have predicted that N-satRNAs would invade CMV populations only when transmission rates are high. Here, we tested this hypothesis experimentally by passaging CMV or CMV+N-satRNAs at low or high aphid densities (2 or 8 aphids/plant). As predicted, high aphid densities were required for N-satRNA emergence. The results showed that at low aphid densities, random effects due to population bottlenecks during transmission dominate the epidemiological dynamics of CMV/CMV+N-satRNA. The results suggest that maintaining aphid populations at low density will prevent the emergence of highly virulent CMV+N-satRNA isolates.

Factors influencing the decline in lung density in a Danish lung cancer screening cohort.

PubMed

Shaker, Saher B; Dirksen, Asger; Lo, Pechin; Skovgaard, Lene T; de Bruijne, Marleen; Pedersen, Jesper H

2012-11-01

Lung cancer screening trials provide an opportunity to study the natural history of emphysema by using computed tomography (CT) lung density as a surrogate parameter. In the Danish Lung Cancer Screening Trial, 2,052 participants were included. At screening rounds, smoking habits were recorded and spirometry was performed. CT lung density was measured as the volume-adjusted 15th percentile density (PD15). A mixed effects model was used with former smoking males with <30 pack-yrs and without airflow obstruction (AFO) at entry as a reference group. At study entry, 893 (44%) participants had AFO. For the reference group, PD15 was 72.6 g·L(-1) with an annual decline of -0.33 g·L(-1). Female sex and current smoking increased PD15 at baseline, 17.3 g·L(-1) (p<0.001) and 10 g·L(-1) (p<0.001), respectively; and both increased the annual decline in PD15 (female: -0.3 g·L(-1); current smoking: -0.4 g·L(-1)). The presence and severity of AFO was a strong predictor of low PD15 at baseline (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) I: -1.4 g·L(-1); GOLD II: -6.3 g·L(-1); GOLD III: -17 g·L(-1)) and of increased annual decline in PD15 (GOLD I: -0.2 g·L(-1); GOLD II: -0.5 g·L(-1); GOLD III: -0.5 g·L(-1)). Female sex, active smoking and the presence of AFO are associated with accelerated decline in lung density.

Population structure and historical demography of South American sea lions provide insights into the catastrophic decline of a marine mammal population.

PubMed

Hoffman, J I; Kowalski, G J; Klimova, A; Eberhart-Phillips, L J; Staniland, I J; Baylis, A M M

2016-07-01

Understanding the causes of population decline is crucial for conservation management. We therefore used genetic analysis both to provide baseline data on population structure and to evaluate hypotheses for the catastrophic decline of the South American sea lion (Otaria flavescens) at the Falkland Islands (Malvinas) in the South Atlantic. We genotyped 259 animals from 23 colonies across the Falklands at 281 bp of the mitochondrial hypervariable region and 22 microsatellites. A weak signature of population structure was detected, genetic diversity was moderately high in comparison with other pinniped species, and no evidence was found for the decline being associated with a strong demographic bottleneck. By combining our mitochondrial data with published sequences from Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Peru, we also uncovered strong maternally directed population structure across the geographical range of the species. In particular, very few shared haplotypes were found between the Falklands and South America, and this was reflected in correspondingly low migration rate estimates. These findings do not support the prominent hypothesis that the decline was caused by migration to Argentina, where large-scale commercial harvesting operations claimed over half a million animals. Thus, our study not only provides baseline data for conservation management but also reveals the potential for genetic studies to shed light upon long-standing questions pertaining to the history and fate of natural populations.

Population structure and historical demography of South American sea lions provide insights into the catastrophic decline of a marine mammal population

PubMed Central

Hoffman, J. I.; Kowalski, G. J.; Klimova, A.; Staniland, I. J.; Baylis, A. M. M.

2016-01-01

Understanding the causes of population decline is crucial for conservation management. We therefore used genetic analysis both to provide baseline data on population structure and to evaluate hypotheses for the catastrophic decline of the South American sea lion (Otaria flavescens) at the Falkland Islands (Malvinas) in the South Atlantic. We genotyped 259 animals from 23 colonies across the Falklands at 281 bp of the mitochondrial hypervariable region and 22 microsatellites. A weak signature of population structure was detected, genetic diversity was moderately high in comparison with other pinniped species, and no evidence was found for the decline being associated with a strong demographic bottleneck. By combining our mitochondrial data with published sequences from Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Peru, we also uncovered strong maternally directed population structure across the geographical range of the species. In particular, very few shared haplotypes were found between the Falklands and South America, and this was reflected in correspondingly low migration rate estimates. These findings do not support the prominent hypothesis that the decline was caused by migration to Argentina, where large-scale commercial harvesting operations claimed over half a million animals. Thus, our study not only provides baseline data for conservation management but also reveals the potential for genetic studies to shed light upon long-standing questions pertaining to the history and fate of natural populations. PMID:27493782

Big city Bombus: using natural history and land-use history to find significant environmental drivers in bumble-bee declines in urban development.

PubMed

Glaum, Paul; Simao, Maria-Carolina; Vaidya, Chatura; Fitch, Gordon; Iulinao, Benjamin

2017-05-01

Native bee populations are critical sources of pollination. Unfortunately, native bees are declining in abundance and diversity. Much of this decline comes from human land-use change. While the effects of large-scale agriculture on native bees are relatively well understood, the effects of urban development are less clear. Understanding urbanity's effect on native bees requires consideration of specific characteristics of both particular bee species and their urban landscape. We surveyed bumble-bee ( Bombus spp.) abundance and diversity in gardens across multiple urban centres in southeastern Michigan. There are significant declines in Bombus abundance and diversity associated with urban development when measured on scales in-line with Bombus flight ability. These declines are entirely driven by declines in females; males showed no response to urbanization. We hypothesize that this is owing to differing foraging strategies between the sexes, and it suggests reduced Bombus colony density in more urban areas. While urbanity reduced Bombus prevalence, results in Detroit imply that 'shrinking cities' potentially offer unique urban paradigms that must be considered when studying wild bee ecology. Results show previously unidentified differences in the effects of urbanity on female and male bumble-bee populations and suggest that urban landscapes can be managed to support native bee conservation.

Big city Bombus: using natural history and land-use history to find significant environmental drivers in bumble-bee declines in urban development

PubMed Central

Simao, Maria-Carolina; Vaidya, Chatura; Fitch, Gordon; Iulinao, Benjamin

2017-01-01

Native bee populations are critical sources of pollination. Unfortunately, native bees are declining in abundance and diversity. Much of this decline comes from human land-use change. While the effects of large-scale agriculture on native bees are relatively well understood, the effects of urban development are less clear. Understanding urbanity's effect on native bees requires consideration of specific characteristics of both particular bee species and their urban landscape. We surveyed bumble-bee (Bombus spp.) abundance and diversity in gardens across multiple urban centres in southeastern Michigan. There are significant declines in Bombus abundance and diversity associated with urban development when measured on scales in-line with Bombus flight ability. These declines are entirely driven by declines in females; males showed no response to urbanization. We hypothesize that this is owing to differing foraging strategies between the sexes, and it suggests reduced Bombus colony density in more urban areas. While urbanity reduced Bombus prevalence, results in Detroit imply that ‘shrinking cities’ potentially offer unique urban paradigms that must be considered when studying wild bee ecology. Results show previously unidentified differences in the effects of urbanity on female and male bumble-bee populations and suggest that urban landscapes can be managed to support native bee conservation. PMID:28573023

QuickStats: Birth Rates Among Teens Aged 15-19 Years, by Race/Hispanic Ethnicity* - National Vital Statistics System, United States,(†) 2007 and 2015(§).

PubMed

2016-08-19

From 2007 to 2015, the birth rate for female teens aged 15-19 years declined 46%, from 41.5 to 22.3 births per 1,000, the lowest rate ever recorded for this population in the United States. In 2015, rates declined to record lows for all racial/ethnic populations, with declines ranging from 41% for non-Hispanic white teens to 54% for Hispanic teens. Despite the declines, teen birth rates by race/Hispanic ethnicity continued to reflect wide disparities, with rates ranging from 6.9 per 1,000 for Asian or Pacific Islander teens to 34.9 for Hispanic teens in 2015.

The Elevated Susceptibility to Diabetes in India: An Evolutionary Perspective

PubMed Central

Wells, Jonathan C. K.; Pomeroy, Emma; Walimbe, Subhash R.; Popkin, Barry M.; Yajnik, Chittaranjan S.

2016-01-01

India has rapidly become a “diabetes capital” of the world, despite maintaining high rates of under-nutrition. Indians develop diabetes at younger age and at lower body weights than other populations. Here, we interpret these characteristics in terms of a “capacity–load” model of glucose homeostasis. Specifically, we assume that glycemic control depends on whether the body’s “metabolic capacity,” referring to traits, such as pancreatic insulin production and muscle glucose clearance, is able to resolve the “metabolic load” generated by high levels of body fat, high dietary glycemic load, and sedentary behavior. We employ data from modern cohorts to support the model and the interpretation that elevated diabetic risk among Indian populations results from the high metabolic load imposed by westernized lifestyles acting on a baseline of low metabolic capacity. We attribute this low metabolic capacity to the low birth weight characteristic of Indian populations, which is associated with short stature and low lean mass in adult life. Using stature as a marker of metabolic capacity, we review archeological and historical evidence to highlight long-term declines in Indian stature associated with adaptation to several ecological stresses. Underlying causes may include increasing population density following the emergence of agriculture, the spread of vegetarian diets, regular famines induced by monsoon failure, and the undermining of agricultural security during the colonial period. The reduced growth and thin physique that characterize Indian populations elevate susceptibility to truncal obesity, and increase the metabolic penalties arising from sedentary behavior and high glycemic diets. Improving metabolic capacity may require multiple generations; in the meantime, efforts to reduce the metabolic load will help ameliorate the situation. PMID:27458578

An historical overview and update of wolf-moose interactions in northeastern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L. David; Fieberg, John; Barber-Meyer, Shannon

2018-01-01

Wolf (Canis lupus) and moose (Alces americanus) populations in northeastern Minnesota, USA, have fluctuated for decades and, based on helicopter counts, moose numbers declined to a new low from 2006 to about 2012. Other steep declines were found in 1991 and 1998 during periods when moose counts were done with ®xed-wing aircraft; these declines also appeared to be real. Winter wolf numbers, monitored in part of the moose range, had been increasing since about 2002 to the highest population in decades in 2009. However, from 2009 to 2016, wolves decreased precipitously, and the moose-population decline leveled off from 2012 to 2017. Calf:population ratios from 1985 to 1997 and from 2005 to 2016 were inversely related to wolf numbers in the wolf-study area the previous winter both as wolves increased and decreased in abundance. Similarly, log annual growth rates of moose numbers were negatively correlated with counts of wolves in the prior year. Other factors such as nutrition and parasites, and possibly climate change, likely have been involved in the recent moose decline. However, wolves, as in other areas, appear to have contributed to the decline in the northeastern Minnesota moose population at least in part through predation on calves, supporting earlier reports. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Marinesco bodies and substantia nigra neuron density in Parkinson's disease.

PubMed

Abbott, R D; Nelson, J S; Ross, G W; Uyehara-Lock, J H; Tanner, C M; Masaki, K H; Launer, L J; White, L R; Petrovitch, H

2017-12-01

Marinesco bodies (MB) are intranuclear inclusions in pigmented neurons of the substantia nigra (SN). While rare in children, frequency increases with normal ageing and is high in Alzheimer's disease, dementia with Lewy bodies and other neurodegenerative disorders. Coinciding with the age-related rise in MB frequency is initiation of cell death among SN neurons. Whether MB have a role in this process is unknown. Our aim is to examine the association of MB with SN neuron density in Parkinson's disease (PD) in the Honolulu-Asia Aging Study. Data on MB and neuron density were measured in SN transverse sections in 131 autopsied men aged 73-99 years at the time of death from 1992 to 2007. Marinesco body frequency was low in the presence vs. absence of PD (2.3% vs. 6.6%, P < 0.001). After PD onset, MB frequency declined as duration of PD increased (P = 0.006). Similar patterns were observed for SN neuron density. When MB frequency was low, neuron density was noticeably reduced in the SN ventrolateral quadrant, the region most vulnerable to PD neurodegeneration. Low MB frequency was unique to PD as its high frequency in non-PD cases was unrelated to parkinsonian signs and incidental Lewy bodies. Frequency was high in the presence of Alzheimer's disease and apolipoprotein ε4 alleles. While findings confirm that MB frequency is low in PD, declines in MB frequency continue with PD duration. The extent to which MB have a distinct relationship with PD warrants clarification. Further studies of MB could be important in understanding PD processes. © 2017 British Neuropathological Society.

Evaluating the Role of Small Impoundments in Legacy Sediment Storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bain, D. J.; Salant, N.; Green, M. B.; Wreschnig, A. J.; Urbanova, T.

2009-12-01

Recent research highlighting the prevalence of dams built for water power in the mid-1800s has led to suggestions that strategies for managing legacy sediment in the Eastern United States should be re-evaluated. However, the link between reach-scale observations of historic dam sites to processes at the catchment scale have not been examined, nor have the role of other, similar historic changes been evaluated. This presentation will compare dam dynamics, including mill density data and synthetic estimates of beaver populations with sedimentation rates recorded in sediment cores. If low-head dams were a dominant mechanism in sediment storage, we expect to see changes in sedimentation rates with the expatriation of the beaver and the rise and decline of water power. Further, we expect to see spatial variation in these changes as beaver and mill densities and potential sediment yield are spatially heterogeneous. Ultimately, dramatic changes in sediment yield due to land use and hydrological alterations likely drove sedimentation rates; the mechanistic importance of storage likely depends on temporal coincidence.

Sea Star Wasting Disease in the Keystone Predator Pisaster ochraceus in Oregon: Insights into Differential Population Impacts, Recovery, Predation Rate, and Temperature Effects from Long-Term Research.

PubMed

Menge, Bruce A; Cerny-Chipman, Elizabeth B; Johnson, Angela; Sullivan, Jenna; Gravem, Sarah; Chan, Francis

2016-01-01

Sea star wasting disease (SSWD) first appeared in Oregon in April 2014, and by June had spread to most of the coast. Although delayed compared to areas to the north and south, SSWD was initially most intense in north and central Oregon and spread southward. Up to 90% of individuals showed signs of disease from June-August 2014. In rocky intertidal habitats, populations of the dominant sea star Pisaster ochraceus were rapidly depleted, with magnitudes of decline in density among sites ranging from -2x to -9x (59 to 84%) and of biomass from -2.6x to -15.8x (60 to 90%) by September 2014. The frequency of symptomatic individuals declined over winter and persisted at a low rate through the spring and summer 2015 (~5-15%, at most sites) and into fall 2015. Disease expression included six symptoms: initially with twisting arms, then deflation and/or lesions, lost arms, losing grip on substrate, and final disintegration. SSWD was disproportionally higher in orange individuals, and higher in tidepools. Although historically P. ochraceus recruitment has been low, from fall 2014 to spring 2015 an unprecedented surge of sea star recruitment occurred at all sites, ranging from ~7x to 300x greater than in 2014. The loss of adult and juvenile individuals in 2014 led to a dramatic decline in predation rate on mussels compared to the previous two decades. A proximate cause of wasting was likely the "Sea Star associated Densovirus" (SSaDV), but the ultimate factors triggering the epidemic, if any, remain unclear. Although warm temperature has been proposed as a possible trigger, SSWD in Oregon populations increased with cool temperatures. Since P. ochraceus is a keystone predator that can strongly influence the biodiversity and community structure of the intertidal community, major community-level responses to the disease are expected. However, predicting the specific impacts and time course of change across west coast meta-communities is difficult, suggesting the need for detailed coast-wide investigation of the effects of this outbreak.

Sea Star Wasting Disease in the Keystone Predator Pisaster ochraceus in Oregon: Insights into Differential Population Impacts, Recovery, Predation Rate, and Temperature Effects from Long-Term Research

PubMed Central

Menge, Bruce A.; Cerny-Chipman, Elizabeth B.; Johnson, Angela; Sullivan, Jenna; Gravem, Sarah; Chan, Francis

2016-01-01

Sea star wasting disease (SSWD) first appeared in Oregon in April 2014, and by June had spread to most of the coast. Although delayed compared to areas to the north and south, SSWD was initially most intense in north and central Oregon and spread southward. Up to 90% of individuals showed signs of disease from June-August 2014. In rocky intertidal habitats, populations of the dominant sea star Pisaster ochraceus were rapidly depleted, with magnitudes of decline in density among sites ranging from -2x to -9x (59 to 84%) and of biomass from -2.6x to -15.8x (60 to 90%) by September 2014. The frequency of symptomatic individuals declined over winter and persisted at a low rate through the spring and summer 2015 (~5–15%, at most sites) and into fall 2015. Disease expression included six symptoms: initially with twisting arms, then deflation and/or lesions, lost arms, losing grip on substrate, and final disintegration. SSWD was disproportionally higher in orange individuals, and higher in tidepools. Although historically P. ochraceus recruitment has been low, from fall 2014 to spring 2015 an unprecedented surge of sea star recruitment occurred at all sites, ranging from ~7x to 300x greater than in 2014. The loss of adult and juvenile individuals in 2014 led to a dramatic decline in predation rate on mussels compared to the previous two decades. A proximate cause of wasting was likely the “Sea Star associated Densovirus” (SSaDV), but the ultimate factors triggering the epidemic, if any, remain unclear. Although warm temperature has been proposed as a possible trigger, SSWD in Oregon populations increased with cool temperatures. Since P. ochraceus is a keystone predator that can strongly influence the biodiversity and community structure of the intertidal community, major community-level responses to the disease are expected. However, predicting the specific impacts and time course of change across west coast meta-communities is difficult, suggesting the need for detailed coast-wide investigation of the effects of this outbreak. PMID:27144391

A demographic perspective on the Middle to Later Stone Age transition from Nasera rockshelter, Tanzania

PubMed Central

Tryon, Christian A.; Faith, J. Tyler

2016-01-01

Increased population density is among the proposed drivers of the behavioural changes culminating in the Middle to Later Stone Age (MSA–LSA) transition and human dispersals from East Africa, but reliable archaeological measures of demographic change are lacking. We use Late Pleistocene–Holocene lithic and faunal data from Nasera rockshelter (Tanzania) to show progressive declines in residential mobility—a variable linked to population density—and technological shifts, the latter associated with environmental changes. These data suggest that the MSA–LSA transition is part of a long-term pattern of changes in residential mobility and technology that reflect human responses to increased population density, with dispersals potentially marking a complementary response to larger populations. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Major transitions in human evolution’. PMID:27298469

Avian community response to lowland tropical rainforest isolation: 40 years of change at La Selva Biological Station, Costa Rica.

PubMed

Sigel, Bryan J; Sherry, Thomas W; Young, Bruce E

2006-02-01

Since 1960, most of the forest surrounding the La Selva Biological Station, an intensively studied tropical research facility in Costa Rica, has been converted to agricultural uses. We used quantitative censuses and analysis of previously published categorical abundances to assess changes in the bird community, and we evaluated potential causes of species-specific changes by assessing their association with habitat, diet, participation in mixed-species flocks, and nest type. Approximately the same percentage of species increased as decreased in abundance from 1960 to 1999 (10-20% of all species, depending on method of assessment). Diet was the single most important trait associated with declining species. At least 50% of the species that declined have insectivorous diets. Use of forest habitat and participation in mixed-species flocks were also significant factors associated with declines, but nest type was unrelated to change in abundance. The species that increased in abundance tended to occur in open habitats and have omnivorous diets. These results reinforce the importance of several population risk factors associated with tropical understory insectivory and mixed-species flocking: patchy spatial distribution, low population density, large home range, and dietary specialization. La Selva's protected area (1611 ha), despite a forested connection on one boundary with a higher elevation national park, is apparently too small to maintain at least one major guild (understory insectivores). This first quantitative assessment of bird community change at La Selva highlights the need to intensify study of the mechanisms and consequences of biological diversity change in tropical forest fragments.

Competition and niche segregation following the arrival of Hemigrapsus takanoi in the formerly Carcinus maenas dominated Dutch delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van den Brink, A. M.; Wijnhoven, S.; McLay, C. L.

2012-10-01

In a combined study including a 20 year monitoring programme of the benthic communities of four Dutch delta waters and a snapshot survey conducted in the Oosterschelde tidal bay in 2011, the populations of the native portunid European shore crab Carcinus maenas and the introduced varunid crabs Hemigrapsus takanoi and Hemigrapsus sanguineus were investigated. Whereas C. maenas was the most common shore crab in these waters, its numbers have declined on the soft sediment substrates during the last 20 years. As the two exotic crab species were first recorded in the Dutch delta in 1999, they could not have initiated the decline of the native C. maenas. However, within a few years H. takanoi completely dominated the intertidal hard substrate environments; the same environments on which juvenile C. maenas depend. On soft sediment substrate the native and exotic shore crab species are presently more or less equally abundant. H. takanoi might initially have taken advantage of the fact that C. maenas numbers were declining. Additionally H. takanoi are thriving in expanding oyster reefs of Crassostrea gigas (Pacific oyster) in the Dutch delta waters, which provide new habitat. Nowadays H. takanoi appears to be a fierce interference competitor or predator for small C. maenas specimens by expelling them from their shelters. These interactions have led to increased mortality of juvenile C. maenas. At present the C. maenas populations seem to be maintained by crabs that survive and reproduce on available soft sediment habitats where H. takanoi densities are low.

Clam density and scaup feeding behavior in San Pablo Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poulton, Victoria K.; Lovvorn, James R.; Takekawa, John Y.

2002-01-01

San Pablo Bay, in northern San Francisco Bay, California, is an important wintering area for Greater (Aythya marila) and Lesser Scaup (A. affinis). We investigated variation in foraging behavior of scaup among five sites in San Pablo Bay, and whether such variation was related to densities of their main potential prey, the clams Potamocorbula amurensis and Macoma balthica. Time-activity budgets showed that scaup spent most of their time sleeping at some sites, and both sleeping and feeding at other sites, with females feeding more than males. In the first half of the observation period (12 January–5 February 2000), percent time spent feeding increased with increasing density of P. amurensis, but decreased with increasing density of M. balthica (diet studies have shown that scaup ate mostly P. amurensis and little or no M. balthica). Densities of M. balthica stayed about the same between fall and spring benthic samples, while densities of P. amurensis declined dramatically at most sites. In the second half of the observation period (7 February–3 March 2000), percent time feeding was no longer strongly related to P. amurensis densities, and dive durations increased by 14%. These changes probably reflected declines of P. amurensis, perhaps as affected by scaup predation. The large area of potential feeding habitat, and alternative prey elsewhere in the estuary, might have resulted in the low correlations between scaup behavior and prey densities in San Pablo Bay. These low correlations made it difficult to identify specific areas of prey concentrations important to scaup.

Factors influencing reproductive performance of northern bobwhite in South Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rolland, V.; Hostetler, J.A.; Hines, T.C.; Percival, H.F.; Oli, M.K.

2011-01-01

Reproductive success is a critical component of individual fitness, and also an important determinant of growth rates of populations characterized by early maturity and high fecundity. We used radiotelemetry data collected during 2003-2008 to estimate reproductive parameters in a declining northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) population in South Florida, and to test hypotheses regarding factors influencing these parameters. The overall clutch size was 12.10 ?? 0.22, but females laid more eggs in their first clutch (12.43 ?? 0.24) than in subsequent clutches (10.19 ?? 0.53) within a nesting season. Daily nest survival was higher for first (0.966 ?? 0.003) than subsequent nests (0.936 ?? 0.011). Hatchability (proportion of laid eggs that hatched conditional upon nest survival to hatching) was 0.853 ?? 0.008, but was higher for nests incubated by females (0.873 ?? 0.009) than those incubated by males (0.798 ?? 0.018). The proportion of individuals attempting a second nest was 0.112 ?? 0.024 and 0.281 ?? 0.040 when the first nest was successful and failed, respectively. Hatchability was lower when the nesting habitat was burned the previous winter. We found no evidence that food strip density (a management practice to provide supplemental food) influenced any of the reproductive parameters. Mean summer temperature affected hatchability, nest survival, and proportion of nests incubated by males. Overall, the reproductive output in our study population was lower than that reported for most other bobwhite populations, indicating that low reproductive performance may have contributed to bobwhite population declines in our study site. These results suggest that current management practices, particularly those related to habitat and harvest management, need careful evaluation. ?? 2010 Springer-Verlag.

DENSITY: software for analysing capture-recapture data from passive detector arrays

USGS Publications Warehouse

Efford, M.G.; Dawson, D.K.; Robbins, C.S.

2004-01-01

A general computer-intensive method is described for fitting spatial detection functions to capture-recapture data from arrays of passive detectors such as live traps and mist nets. The method is used to estimate the population density of 10 species of breeding birds sampled by mist-netting in deciduous forest at Patuxent Research Refuge, Laurel, Maryland, U.S.A., from 1961 to 1972. Total density (9.9 ? 0.6 ha-1 mean ? SE) appeared to decline over time (slope -0.41 ? 0.15 ha-1y-1). The mean precision of annual estimates for all 10 species pooled was acceptable (CV(D) = 14%). Spatial analysis of closed-population capture-recapture data highlighted deficiencies in non-spatial methodologies. For example, effective trapping area cannot be assumed constant when detection probability is variable. Simulation may be used to evaluate alternative designs for mist net arrays where density estimation is a study goal.

Urbanization impacts on mammals across urban-forest edges and a predictive model of edge effects.

PubMed

Villaseñor, Nélida R; Driscoll, Don A; Escobar, Martín A H; Gibbons, Philip; Lindenmayer, David B

2014-01-01

With accelerating rates of urbanization worldwide, a better understanding of ecological processes at the wildland-urban interface is critical to conserve biodiversity. We explored the effects of high and low-density housing developments on forest-dwelling mammals. Based on habitat characteristics, we expected a gradual decline in species abundance across forest-urban edges and an increased decline rate in higher contrast edges. We surveyed arboreal mammals in sites of high and low housing density along 600 m transects that spanned urban areas and areas turn on adjacent native forest. We also surveyed forest controls to test whether edge effects extended beyond our edge transects. We fitted models describing richness, total abundance and individual species abundance. Low-density housing developments provided suitable habitat for most arboreal mammals. In contrast, high-density housing developments had lower species richness, total abundance and individual species abundance, but supported the highest abundances of an urban adapter (Trichosurus vulpecula). We did not find the predicted gradual decline in species abundance. Of four species analysed, three exhibited no response to the proximity of urban boundaries, but spilled over into adjacent urban habitat to differing extents. One species (Petaurus australis) had an extended negative response to urban boundaries, suggesting that urban development has impacts beyond 300 m into adjacent forest. Our empirical work demonstrates that high-density housing developments have negative effects on both community and species level responses, except for one urban adapter. We developed a new predictive model of edge effects based on our results and the literature. To predict animal responses across edges, our framework integrates for first time: (1) habitat quality/preference, (2) species response with the proximity to the adjacent habitat, and (3) spillover extent/sensitivity to adjacent habitat boundaries. This framework will allow scientists, managers and planners better understand and predict both species responses across edges and impacts of development in mosaic landscapes.

Urbanization Impacts on Mammals across Urban-Forest Edges and a Predictive Model of Edge Effects

PubMed Central

Villaseñor, Nélida R.; Driscoll, Don A.; Escobar, Martín A. H.; Gibbons, Philip; Lindenmayer, David B.

2014-01-01

With accelerating rates of urbanization worldwide, a better understanding of ecological processes at the wildland-urban interface is critical to conserve biodiversity. We explored the effects of high and low-density housing developments on forest-dwelling mammals. Based on habitat characteristics, we expected a gradual decline in species abundance across forest-urban edges and an increased decline rate in higher contrast edges. We surveyed arboreal mammals in sites of high and low housing density along 600 m transects that spanned urban areas and areas turn on adjacent native forest. We also surveyed forest controls to test whether edge effects extended beyond our edge transects. We fitted models describing richness, total abundance and individual species abundance. Low-density housing developments provided suitable habitat for most arboreal mammals. In contrast, high-density housing developments had lower species richness, total abundance and individual species abundance, but supported the highest abundances of an urban adapter (Trichosurus vulpecula). We did not find the predicted gradual decline in species abundance. Of four species analysed, three exhibited no response to the proximity of urban boundaries, but spilled over into adjacent urban habitat to differing extents. One species (Petaurus australis) had an extended negative response to urban boundaries, suggesting that urban development has impacts beyond 300 m into adjacent forest. Our empirical work demonstrates that high-density housing developments have negative effects on both community and species level responses, except for one urban adapter. We developed a new predictive model of edge effects based on our results and the literature. To predict animal responses across edges, our framework integrates for first time: (1) habitat quality/preference, (2) species response with the proximity to the adjacent habitat, and (3) spillover extent/sensitivity to adjacent habitat boundaries. This framework will allow scientists, managers and planners better understand and predict both species responses across edges and impacts of development in mosaic landscapes. PMID:24810286

Sources of health insurance and characteristics of the uninsured: analysis of the March 2007 Current Population Survey.

PubMed

Fronstin, Paul

2007-10-01

This Issue Brief provides historic data through 2006 on the number and percentage of nonelderly individuals with and without health insurance. Based on EBRI estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau's March 2007 Current Population Survey (CPS), it reflects 2006 data. It also discusses trends in coverage for the 1994-2006 period and highlights characteristics that typically indicate whether an individual is insured. HEALTH COVERAGE CONTINUES DECLINE: The percentage of the nonelderly population (under age 65) with health insurance coverage continued to decline, reaching to a post-1994 low of 82.1 percent in 2006. Declines in health insurance coverage have been recorded in all but four years since 1994, when 36.5 million nonelderly individuals were uninsured; in 2006, the uninsured population was 46.5 million. EMPLOYMENT-BASED COVERAGE REMAINS DOMINANT SOURCE OF HEALTH COVERAGE: Employment-based health benefits remain by far the most common form of health coverage in the United States, consistently covering 60-70 percent of nonelderly individuals. In 2006, 62.2 percent of the nonelderly population had employment-based health benefits, as compared with 64.4 percent in 1994. Between 1994 and 2000, the percentage of the nonelderly population with employment-based coverage expanded. Since 2000, the percentage has declined. PUBLIC PROGRAM COVERAGE IS STABLE: Public-sector health coverage was slightly lower as a percentage of the population in 2006, accounting for 17.5 percent of the nonelderly population. The decline was due to a drop in the percentage of the population covered by the Tricare/CHAMPVA program. Enrollment in Medicaid and the State Children's Health Insurance Program increased, reaching 34.9 million in 2006, and covering 13.4 percent of the nonelderly population, which is significantly above the 10.5 percent level of 1999, but not far above the 12.7 percent level of 1994. INDIVIDUAL COVERAGE STABLE: Individually purchased health coverage was unchanged in 2006 and has basically hovered in the high 6 and low 7 percent range since 1994. PRIVATE- VS. PUBLIC-COVERAGE TRENDS REVERSING: Health insurance coverage generally has not sustained unbroken trends since 1994. There were crosscurrents: Employment-based coverage expanded significantly in the 1994-2000 period to exceed the growth in public programs. Subsequently, the dynamic reversed, as public programs expanded while employment-based coverage declined. It appears that 2005 might be the beginning of a new trend, where the erosion in employment-based coverage is not being offset by expansions in public programs. This may be due to the fact that, while unemployment is relatively low, the cost of providing health benefits continues to increase faster than inflation.

Recovery Trends in Marine Mammal Populations

PubMed Central

Magera, Anna M.; Mills Flemming, Joanna E.; Kaschner, Kristin; Christensen, Line B.; Lotze, Heike K.

2013-01-01

Marine mammals have greatly benefitted from a shift from resource exploitation towards conservation. Often lauded as symbols of conservation success, some marine mammal populations have shown remarkable recoveries after severe depletions. Others have remained at low abundance levels, continued to decline, or become extinct or extirpated. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of (1) publicly available population-level abundance data for marine mammals worldwide, (2) abundance trends and recovery status, and (3) historic population decline and recent recovery. We compiled 182 population abundance time series for 47 species and identified major data gaps. In order to compare across the largest possible set of time series with varying data quality, quantity and frequency, we considered an increase in population abundance as evidence of recovery. Using robust log-linear regression over three generations, we were able to classify abundance trends for 92 spatially non-overlapping populations as Significantly Increasing (42%), Significantly Decreasing (10%), Non-Significant Change (28%) and Unknown (20%). Our results were comparable to IUCN classifications for equivalent species. Among different groupings, pinnipeds and other marine mammals (sirenians, polar bears and otters) showed the highest proportion of recovering populations, likely benefiting from relatively fast life histories and nearshore habitats that provided visibility and protective management measures. Recovery was less frequent among cetaceans, but more common in coastal than offshore populations. For marine mammals with available historical abundance estimates (n = 47), larger historical population declines were associated with low or variable recent recoveries so far. Overall, our results show that many formerly depleted marine mammal populations are recovering. However, data-deficient populations and those with decreasing and non-significant trends require attention. In particular, increased study of populations with major data gaps, including offshore small cetaceans, cryptic species, and marine mammals in low latitudes and developing nations, is needed to better understand the status of marine mammal populations worldwide. PMID:24205025

Effect of a low-fat or low-carbohydrate weight-loss diet on markers of cardiovascular risk among premenopausal women: a randomized trial.

PubMed

Foraker, Randi E; Pennell, Michael; Sprangers, Peter; Vitolins, Mara Z; DeGraffinreid, Cecilia; Paskett, Electra D

2014-08-01

Low-fat and low-carbohydrate weight-loss diets can have a beneficial effect on longitudinal measures of blood pressure and blood lipids. We aimed to assess longitudinal changes in blood pressure and blood lipids in a population of premenopausal women. We hypothesized that results may differ by level of adherence to the respective diet protocol and baseline presence of hypertension or hyperlipidemia. Overweight or obese premenopausal women were randomized to a low-fat (n=41) or low-carbohydrate (n=38) diet. As part of the 52-week Lifestyle Eating and Fitness (LEAF) intervention trial, we fit linear mixed models to determine whether a change in outcome differed by treatment arm. Within-group trends in blood pressure and blood lipids did not differ (p>0.30). Across study arms, there was a significant decrease in systolic blood pressure (SBP, 3 mm Hg, p=0.01) over time, but diastolic blood pressure (DBP) did not change significantly over the course of the study. Blood lipids (total cholesterol [TC], low-density lipoproteins [LDL], and high-density lipoproteins [HDL]) all exhibited nonlinear trends over time (p<0.01); each decreased initially but returned to levels comparable to baseline by study conclusion (p>0.20). We observed a decline in SBP among women who were hypertensive at baseline (p<0.01), but hypercholesterolemia at baseline did not affect trends in blood lipids (p>0.40). Our results support that dietary interventions may be efficacious for lowering blood pressure and blood lipids among overweight or obese premenopausal women. However, a decrease in SBP was the only favorable change that was sustained in this study population. These changes can be maintained over the course of a 1-year intervention, yet changes in blood lipids may be less sustainable.

Effect of a Low-Fat or Low-Carbohydrate Weight-Loss Diet on Markers of Cardiovascular Risk Among Premenopausal Women: A Randomized Trial

PubMed Central

Pennell, Michael; Sprangers, Peter; Vitolins, Mara Z.; DeGraffinreid, Cecilia; Paskett, Electra D.

2014-01-01

Abstract Background: Low-fat and low-carbohydrate weight-loss diets can have a beneficial effect on longitudinal measures of blood pressure and blood lipids. We aimed to assess longitudinal changes in blood pressure and blood lipids in a population of premenopausal women. We hypothesized that results may differ by level of adherence to the respective diet protocol and baseline presence of hypertension or hyperlipidemia. Methods: Overweight or obese premenopausal women were randomized to a low-fat (n=41) or low-carbohydrate (n=38) diet. As part of the 52-week Lifestyle Eating and Fitness (LEAF) intervention trial, we fit linear mixed models to determine whether a change in outcome differed by treatment arm. Results: Within-group trends in blood pressure and blood lipids did not differ (p>0.30). Across study arms, there was a significant decrease in systolic blood pressure (SBP, 3 mm Hg, p=0.01) over time, but diastolic blood pressure (DBP) did not change significantly over the course of the study. Blood lipids (total cholesterol [TC], low-density lipoproteins [LDL], and high-density lipoproteins [HDL]) all exhibited nonlinear trends over time (p<0.01); each decreased initially but returned to levels comparable to baseline by study conclusion (p>0.20). We observed a decline in SBP among women who were hypertensive at baseline (p<0.01), but hypercholesterolemia at baseline did not affect trends in blood lipids (p>0.40). Conclusions: Our results support that dietary interventions may be efficacious for lowering blood pressure and blood lipids among overweight or obese premenopausal women. However, a decrease in SBP was the only favorable change that was sustained in this study population. These changes can be maintained over the course of a 1-year intervention, yet changes in blood lipids may be less sustainable. PMID:25029619

Drought survival is a threshold function of habitat size and population density in a fish metapopulation.

PubMed

White, Richard S A; McHugh, Peter A; McIntosh, Angus R

2016-10-01

Because smaller habitats dry more frequently and severely during droughts, habitat size is likely a key driver of survival in populations during climate change and associated increased extreme drought frequency. Here, we show that survival in populations during droughts is a threshold function of habitat size driven by an interaction with population density in metapopulations of the forest pool dwelling fish, Neochanna apoda. A mark-recapture study involving 830 N. apoda individuals during a one-in-seventy-year extreme drought revealed that survival during droughts was high for populations occupying pools deeper than 139 mm, but declined steeply in shallower pools. This threshold was caused by an interaction between increasing population density and drought magnitude associated with decreasing habitat size, which acted synergistically to increase physiological stress and mortality. This confirmed two long-held hypotheses, firstly concerning the interactive role of population density and physiological stress, herein driven by habitat size, and secondly, the occurrence of drought survival thresholds. Our results demonstrate how survival in populations during droughts will depend strongly on habitat size and highlight that minimum habitat size thresholds will likely be required to maximize survival as the frequency and intensity of droughts are projected to increase as a result of global climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mating systems of Cuphea laminuligera and Cuphea lutea.

PubMed

Krueger, S K; Knapp, S J

1991-08-01

In this paper, the mating systems of experimental populations of C. laminuligera and C. lutea are described. Outcrossing rates (t) were estimated for four populations of C. laminuligera and three populations of C. lutea using allozyme phenotypes of open-pollinated individual plant families. Populations were grown at densities of 1.0 × 1.0 m (low) and 0.04 × 0.3 m (high). Pollen and ovule frequencies and single locus and multilocus outcrossing rates were estimated for each population using the mixed-mating model. Multilocus estimates of t ranged from 0.83 to 0.98 and 1.00 to 1.01 for low and high density populations of C. laminuligera, respectively, and 0.17 to 0.26 and 0.36 to 0.54 for low and high density populations of C. lutea, respectively. C. laminuligera is predominantly allogamous; however, selfing rates as great as 17% were observed for this species. C. lutea is predominantly autogamous, but outcrossing rates as great as 54% were observed for this species. Outcrossing rates increased as density increased within C. lutea populations.

ELEVATED TEMPERATURE AND ULTRAVIOLET LIGHT AFFECT CONDITION OF REEF BUILDING CORALS

EPA Science Inventory

Abstract and Poster for the EPA Science Forum.

Reef-building corals are declining throughout the world, even at locations with low human populations. Declines have been linked to global changes in land use and climate change. EPA's Office of Research and Development is inv...

Study of low density air transportation concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, H. M.

1972-01-01

Low density air transport refers to air service to sparsely populated regions. There are two major objectives. The first is to examine those characteristics of sparsely populated areas which pertain to air transportation. This involves determination of geographical, commercial and population trends, as well as those traveler characteristics which affect the viability of air transport in the region. The second objective is to analyze the technical, economic and operational characteristics of low density air service. Two representative, but diverse arenas, West Virginia and Arizona, were selected for analysis: The results indicate that Arizona can support air service under certain assumptions whereas West Virginia cannot.

Rocky intertidal zonation pattern in Antofagasta, chile: invasive species and shellfish gathering.

PubMed

Castilla, Juan Carlos; Manríquez, Patricio H; Delgado, Alejandro; Ortiz, Verónica; Jara, María Elisa; Varas, Manuel

2014-01-01

Biological invasions affecting rocky intertidal zonation patterns, yield information on species interactions. In the Bay of Antofagasta, northern Chile, the non-indigenous tunicate Pyura praeputialis, originally from Australia, has invaded (in the past century or so) and monopolized a major portion of the mid-intertidal rocky shore, displacing upshore the native mussel Perumytilus purpuratus. In Antofagasta the tunicate is subjected to intensive exploitation. Monitoring protocols show that in the past 10 years Antofagasta's tunicate population has experienced a drastic decline, affecting the intertidal zonation pattern. A 12.5 km of coastline, on the southern eastern shore of the Bay of Antofagasta, was studied. Eight sites were systematically (1993-1994) or sporadically (2003-2014) monitored for the seaward-shoreward expansion or reduction of the tunicate Pyura praeputialis, and native mussel and barnacle bands. A notable reduction in the mid-intertidal band of P. praeputialis and a seaward expansion of the mussel, Perumytilus purpuratus, and barnacle bands was observed. We suggest that the major cause for the decline in the tunicate is due to its intensive exploitation by rocky shore Pyura-gathers. The rate of extraction of tunicates by professional Pyura-gathers ranged between 256-740 tunicates hour-(1). Between 2009-2014 the density of professional Pyura-gather ranged between 0.5-4.5 km(-1) per low tide. Hence, 10 professional Pyura-gathers working 1 h for 10 low tides per month, during 6 months, will remove between 307-888 m(2) of tunicates. A drastic decline in tunicate recruitment was observed and several P. praeputialis ecosystems services have been lost. In Antofagasta, the continuous and intensive intertidal gathering of the invasive tunicate Pyura praeputialis, has caused a drastic reduction of its population modifying the zonation pattern. Thereby, native mussel Perumytilus purpuratus has regained its ecological center in the intertidal zone. We recorded a Pyura recruitment failure and loss of ecosystem services.

Rocky Intertidal Zonation Pattern in Antofagasta, Chile: Invasive Species and Shellfish Gathering

PubMed Central

Castilla, Juan Carlos; Manríquez, Patricio H.; Delgado, Alejandro; Ortiz, Verónica; Jara, María Elisa; Varas, Manuel

2014-01-01

Background Biological invasions affecting rocky intertidal zonation patterns, yield information on species interactions. In the Bay of Antofagasta, northern Chile, the non-indigenous tunicate Pyura praeputialis, originally from Australia, has invaded (in the past century or so) and monopolized a major portion of the mid-intertidal rocky shore, displacing upshore the native mussel Perumytilus purpuratus. In Antofagasta the tunicate is subjected to intensive exploitation. Monitoring protocols show that in the past 10 years Antofagasta's tunicate population has experienced a drastic decline, affecting the intertidal zonation pattern. Methodology/Principal Findings A 12.5 km of coastline, on the southern eastern shore of the Bay of Antofagasta, was studied. Eight sites were systematically (1993–1994) or sporadically (2003–2014) monitored for the seaward-shoreward expansion or reduction of the tunicate Pyura praeputialis, and native mussel and barnacle bands. A notable reduction in the mid-intertidal band of P. praeputialis and a seaward expansion of the mussel, Perumytilus purpuratus, and barnacle bands was observed. We suggest that the major cause for the decline in the tunicate is due to its intensive exploitation by rocky shore Pyura-gathers. The rate of extraction of tunicates by professional Pyura-gathers ranged between 256–740 tunicates hour−1. Between 2009–2014 the density of professional Pyura-gather ranged between 0.5–4.5 km−1 per low tide. Hence, 10 professional Pyura-gathers working 1 h for 10 low tides per month, during 6 months, will remove between 307–888 m2 of tunicates. A drastic decline in tunicate recruitment was observed and several P. praeputialis ecosystems services have been lost. Conclusion and Significance In Antofagasta, the continuous and intensive intertidal gathering of the invasive tunicate Pyura praeputialis, has caused a drastic reduction of its population modifying the zonation pattern. Thereby, native mussel Perumytilus purpuratus has regained its ecological center in the intertidal zone. We recorded a Pyura recruitment failure and loss of ecosystem services. PMID:25338112

Population Density, Poor Sanitation, and Enteric Infections in Nueva Santa Rosa, Guatemala.

PubMed

Jarquin, Claudia; Arnold, Benjamin F; Muñoz, Fredy; Lopez, Beatriz; Cuéllar, Victoria M; Thornton, Andrew; Patel, Jaymin; Reyes, Lisette; Roy, Sharon L; Bryan, Joe P; McCracken, John P; Colford, John M

2016-04-01

Poor sanitation could pose greater risk for enteric pathogen transmission at higher human population densities because of greater potential for pathogens to infect new hosts through environmentally mediated and person-to-person transmission. We hypothesized that incidence and prevalence of diarrhea, enteric protozoans, and soil-transmitted helminth infections would be higher in high-population-density areas compared with low-population-density areas, and that poor sanitation would pose greater risk for these enteric infections at high density compared with low density. We tested our hypotheses using 6 years of clinic-based diarrhea surveillance (2007-2013) including 4,360 geolocated diarrhea cases tested for 13 pathogens and a 2010 cross-sectional survey that measured environmental exposures from 204 households (920 people) and tested 701 stool specimens for enteric parasites. We found that population density was not a key determinant of enteric infection nor a strong effect modifier of risk posed by poor household sanitation in this setting. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Population Density, Poor Sanitation, and Enteric Infections in Nueva Santa Rosa, Guatemala

PubMed Central

Jarquin, Claudia; Arnold, Benjamin F.; Muñoz, Fredy; Lopez, Beatriz; Cuéllar, Victoria M.; Thornton, Andrew; Patel, Jaymin; Reyes, Lisette; Roy, Sharon L.; Bryan, Joe P.; McCracken, John P.; Colford, John M.

2016-01-01

Poor sanitation could pose greater risk for enteric pathogen transmission at higher human population densities because of greater potential for pathogens to infect new hosts through environmentally mediated and person-to-person transmission. We hypothesized that incidence and prevalence of diarrhea, enteric protozoans, and soil-transmitted helminth infections would be higher in high-population-density areas compared with low-population-density areas, and that poor sanitation would pose greater risk for these enteric infections at high density compared with low density. We tested our hypotheses using 6 years of clinic-based diarrhea surveillance (2007–2013) including 4,360 geolocated diarrhea cases tested for 13 pathogens and a 2010 cross-sectional survey that measured environmental exposures from 204 households (920 people) and tested 701 stool specimens for enteric parasites. We found that population density was not a key determinant of enteric infection nor a strong effect modifier of risk posed by poor household sanitation in this setting. PMID:26856919

Forage selection by mule deer: does niche breadth increase with population density.

Treesearch

M.C. Nicholson; R.T. Bowyer; J.G. Kie

2006-01-01

Effects of population density of mule deer Odocoileus hemionus on forage selection were investigated by comparing diet characteristics of two subpopulations of deer in southern California, USA, that differed in population density during winter. Quality of diet for deer, as indexed by faecal crude protein, was higher at the low-density site than at...

Increased natural mortality at low abundance can generate an Allee effect in a marine fish.

PubMed

Kuparinen, Anna; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

2014-10-01

Negative density-dependent regulation of population dynamics promotes population growth at low abundance and is therefore vital for recovery following depletion. Inversely, any process that reduces the compensatory density-dependence of population growth can negatively affect recovery. Here, we show that increased adult mortality at low abundance can reverse compensatory population dynamics into its opposite-a demographic Allee effect. Northwest Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks collapsed dramatically in the early 1990s and have since shown little sign of recovery. Many experienced dramatic increases in natural mortality, ostensibly attributable in some populations to increased predation by seals. Our findings show that increased natural mortality of a magnitude observed for overfished cod stocks has been more than sufficient to fundamentally alter the dynamics of density-dependent population regulation. The demographic Allee effect generated by these changes can slow down or even impede the recovery of depleted populations even in the absence of fishing.

Experimental moose reduction lowers wolf density and stops decline of endangered caribou

PubMed Central

McLellan, Bruce N.; van Oort, Harry; Mowat, Garth; Boutin, Stan

2017-01-01

The expansion of moose into southern British Columbia caused the decline and extirpation of woodland caribou due to their shared predators, a process commonly referred to as apparent competition. Using an adaptive management experiment, we tested the hypothesis that reducing moose to historic levels would reduce apparent competition and therefor recover caribou populations. Nested within this broad hypothesis were three specific hypotheses: (1) sport hunting could be used to substantially reduce moose numbers to an ecological target; (2) wolves in this ecosystem were primarily limited by moose abundance; and (3) caribou were limited by wolf predation. These hypotheses were evaluated with a before-after control-impact (BACI) design that included response metrics such as population trends and vital rates of caribou, moose, and wolves. Three caribou subpopulations were subject to the moose reduction treatment and two were in a reference area where moose were not reduced. When the moose harvest was increased, the moose population declined substantially in the treatment area (by 70%) but not the reference area, suggesting that the policy had the desired effect and was not caused by a broader climatic process. Wolf numbers subsequently declined in the treatment area, with wolf dispersal rates 2.5× greater, meaning that dispersal was the likely mechanism behind the wolf numerical response, though reduced recruitment and starvation was also documented in the treatment area. Caribou adult survival increased from 0.78 to 0.88 in the treatment area, but declined in the reference. Caribou recruitment was unaffected by the treatment. The largest caribou subpopulation stabilized in the treatment area, but declined in the reference area. The observed population stability is comparable to other studies that used intensive wolf control, but is insufficient to achieve recovery, suggesting that multiple limiting factors and corresponding management tools must be addressed simultaneously to achieve population growth. PMID:28875080

A spatially explicit model for an Allee effect: why wolves recolonize so slowly in Greater Yellowstone.

PubMed

Hurford, Amy; Hebblewhite, Mark; Lewis, Mark A

2006-11-01

A reduced probability of finding mates at low densities is a frequently hypothesized mechanism for a component Allee effect. At low densities dispersers are less likely to find mates and establish new breeding units. However, many mathematical models for an Allee effect do not make a distinction between breeding group establishment and subsequent population growth. Our objective is to derive a spatially explicit mathematical model, where dispersers have a reduced probability of finding mates at low densities, and parameterize the model for wolf recolonization in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). In this model, only the probability of establishing new breeding units is influenced by the reduced probability of finding mates at low densities. We analytically and numerically solve the model to determine the effect of a decreased probability in finding mates at low densities on population spread rate and density. Our results suggest that a reduced probability of finding mates at low densities may slow recolonization rate.

The impact of urbanization and population density on childhood Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence rates in Africa.

PubMed

Kabaria, Caroline W; Gilbert, Marius; Noor, Abdisalan M; Snow, Robert W; Linard, Catherine

2017-01-26

Although malaria has been traditionally regarded as less of a problem in urban areas compared to neighbouring rural areas, the risk of malaria infection continues to exist in densely populated, urban areas of Africa. Despite the recognition that urbanization influences the epidemiology of malaria, there is little consensus on urbanization relevant for malaria parasite mapping. Previous studies examining the relationship between urbanization and malaria transmission have used products defining urbanization at global/continental scales developed in the early 2000s, that overestimate actual urban extents while the population estimates are over 15 years old and estimated at administrative unit level. This study sought to discriminate an urbanization definition that is most relevant for malaria parasite mapping using individual level malaria infection data obtained from nationally representative household-based surveys. Boosted regression tree (BRT) modelling was used to determine the effect of urbanization on malaria transmission and if this effect varied with urbanization definition. In addition, the most recent high resolution population distribution data was used to determine whether population density had significant effect on malaria parasite prevalence and if so, could population density replace urban classifications in modelling malaria transmission patterns. The risk of malaria infection was shown to decline from rural areas through peri-urban settlements to urban central areas. Population density was found to be an important predictor of malaria risk. The final boosted regression trees (BRT) model with urbanization and population density gave the best model fit (Tukey test p value <0.05) compared to the models with urbanization only. Given the challenges in uniformly classifying urban areas across different countries, population density provides a reliable metric to adjust for the patterns of malaria risk in densely populated urban areas. Future malaria risk models can, therefore, be improved by including both population density and urbanization which have both been shown to have significant impact on malaria risk in this study.

Prevalence and clinical determinants of low bone mineral density in anorexia nervosa.

PubMed

Hofman, Marielle; Landewé-Cleuren, Sabine; Wojciechowski, Franz; Kruseman, Arie Nieuwenhuijzen

2009-01-01

To determine the prevalence of low bone mass in anorexia nervosa (AN) and the association with clinical parameters. A cross-sectional study on 286 Caucasian women with AN. Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured with DXA. Low BMD was defined as a Z-score

Historically low mitochondrial DNA diversity in koalas (Phascolarctos cinereus)

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) is an arboreal marsupial that was historically widespread across eastern Australia until the end of the 19th century when it suffered a steep population decline. Hunting for the fur trade, habitat conversion, and disease contributed to a precipitous reduction in koala population size during the late 1800s and early 1900s. To examine the effects of these reductions in population size on koala genetic diversity, we sequenced part of the hypervariable region of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) in koala museum specimens collected in the 19th and 20th centuries, hypothesizing that the historical samples would exhibit greater genetic diversity. Results The mtDNA haplotypes present in historical museum samples were identical to haplotypes found in modern koala populations, and no novel haplotypes were detected. Rarefaction analyses suggested that the mtDNA genetic diversity present in the museum samples was similar to that of modern koalas. Conclusions Low mtDNA diversity may have been present in koala populations prior to recent population declines. When considering management strategies, low genetic diversity of the mtDNA hypervariable region may not indicate recent inbreeding or founder events but may reflect an older historical pattern for koalas. PMID:23095716

Negative effects of Microcystis blooms on the crustacean plankton in an enclosure experiment in the subtropical China.

PubMed

Chen, Fei-zhou; Xie, Ping; Tang, Hui-juan; Liu, Hong

2005-01-01

Effects of Microcystis blooms on the crustacean plankton were studied using enclosure experiments during July-September, 2000. Eight enclosures were set in the hypereutrophic Donghu Lake. Different nutrient concentrations through additional nutrient and sediment in enclosures were expected to result in different abundance of Microcystis. From July to early August, the phytoplankton community was dominated by Chlorophyta, Cryptophyta, Bacillariophyta and Cyanophyta other than Microcystis aeruginosa. M. aeruginosa showed a rapid increase during early August in all enclosures and predominated. Crustacean plankton was dominated by the herbivorous Moina micrura, Diaphanosoma brachyurum and Ceriodaphnia cornuta, and the predaceous Mesocyclops sp. and Thermocyclops taihokuensis. During the pre-bloom period, the dynamics of M. micrura population appeared to be mainly affected by the predaceous cyclopoids. With the development of Microcystis blooms, such interaction between M. micrura and cyclopoids seemed weakened, especially when the Microcystis biomass was high. But there was no apparent influence on the interaction between Leptodora kindti and its zooplanktonic prey. The density of two cyclopoids decreased with the enhancement of Microcystis. The density decline of M. micrura was caused by both predation and inhibition by Microcystis. The low food availability of other edible phytoplankton during the blooms led to low densities of both C. cornuta and D. brachyurum by late August. It appears that dense Microcystis blooms exert strong negative effects on the herbivorous cladocerans and the predaceous cyclopoids.

Use of chemosensory cues as repellents for sea lamprey: Potential directions for population management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Imre, I.; Brown, G.E.; Bergstedt, R.A.; McDonald, R.

2010-01-01

Sea lamprey invaded the Great Lakes in the early 20th century and caused an abrupt decline in the population densities of several native fish species. The integrated management of this invasive species is composed of chemical (lampricide) applications, low-head barrier dams, adult trapping and sterile male release. Recently, there has been an increased emphasis on the development of control methods alternative to lampricide applications. We propose as an alternative-control method the use of chemosensory cues as repellents for sea lamprey population management. Based on the available evidence at this time, we suggest that injury-released chemical alarm cues show promise as repellents for sea lamprey and further research should be directed at determining whether sea lamprey show an avoidance response to these types of chemosensory cues. From a management perspective, these chemosensory cues could be used to restrict sea lamprey access to spawning grounds. Repellents could also be used together with attractants like sex pheromones to manipulate sea lamprey behavior, similar to the "push-pull" strategies utilized with insect pests. ?? 2010 Elsevier B.V.

Prehistoric decline in freshwater mussels coincident with the advent of maize agriculture

Treesearch

Evan Peacock; Wendell Haag; Melvin Warren

2005-01-01

During late prehistory, high population densities and intensive agricultural practices of Native American societies had profound effects on the pre-Columbian landscape. The degree to which Native American land use affected aquatic ecosystems is unknown. Freshwater mussels are particularly sensitive harbingers of modern-day ecosystem deterioration.We used data from...

Riparian Bird Population Monitoring in Utah, 1992-2001

Treesearch

Russell E. Norvell; Frank P. Howe; Jimmie R. Parrish

2005-01-01

We report statewide linear and non-linear trends in density from 1992 to 2001 for six common bird species in the riparian areas of Utah. The six species examined here represent over 24 percent of all observations in the period. Four of the six species showed linear declines (Black-headed Grosbeak [Pheucticus melanocephalus], American Goldfinch [

The genetic effects of a diameter limited cut on black walnut

Treesearch

Rodney L. Robichaud; Olin E., Jr. Rhodes; Keith Woeste

2003-01-01

Black walnut (Juglans nigra L.) trees are often selectively cut from forested stands based on their phenotype or size. This practice lowers the population density and possibly the genetic diversity of the species. Anecdotal evidence links this practice to an observed decline in the availability of high quality black walnuts.

Songbird use of regenerating forest, glade, and edge habitat types

Treesearch

Alix D. Fink; Frank R., III Thompson; April A. Tudor

2006-01-01

Population numbers of many bird species associated with early-successional or disturbance-dependent habitat types are declining. We used an information-theoretic approach to evaluate hypotheses concerning factors affecting breeding bird densities in different early-successional habitat types. We studied shrubland bird communities in 3- to 5-year-old regenerating forest...

The effects of seed source health on whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) regeneration density after wildfire

Treesearch

Signe B. Leirfallom; Robert E. Keane; Diana F. Tomback; Solomon Z. Dobrowski

2015-01-01

Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) populations are declining nearly rangewide from a combination of factors, including mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, 1902) outbreaks, the exotic pathogen Cronartium ribicola J.C. Fisch. 1872, which causes the disease white pine blister rust, and successional replacement due to historical fire...

A novel approach for assessing density and range-wide abundance of prairie dogs

Treesearch

Aaron N. Facka; Paulette L. Ford; Gary W. Roemer

2008-01-01

Habitat loss, introduced disease, and government-sponsored eradication programs have caused population declines in all 5 species of prairie dogs. Black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) currently occupy only about 2% of an extensive geographic range (160 million hectares) and were recently considered for listing under the United States...

Tidal variation of phytoplankton in the coastal waters of South Andaman, India.

PubMed

Chakraborty, Arindam; Padmavati, Gadi; Ghosh, Amit K

2015-01-01

Tidal variations of phytoplankton were studied at two stations i.e., Station 1 (Science Centre) and Station 2 (Junglighat Bay) during the period of December 2010 to February 2011 in the coastal waters of South Andaman Islands, India. Phytoplankton biomass (Chlorophyll-a) was observed low (avg. 0.02- 0.1 mg m(-3)) at the stations during the sampling period. Low values of dissolved oxygen and biochemical oxygen demand were recorded during low tide. In all 114 species belonging to 42 genera of diatoms, 16 genera of dinoflagellates and 4 genera of cyanobacteria were identified. Phytoplankton population density ranged from 827cells I(-1) to 11,790 cells l(-1) and was high during high tide in comparison to low tide. Diatoms were dominant (70.86-88.0%) and contributed more towards phytoplankton biomass followed by dinoflagellates (10.8-19.53%) and cyanobacteria (0.73-9.4%). Dinoflagellates were visualised more in the samples when diatom population had declined. Diversity indices such as species diversity (H') ranged from 0.68-3.1; species richness (d) varied from 2.18-6.54 and Pielou's evenness (J') ranged from 0.24-0.94. H' was more during high tide than at low tide at Station 2. On the other hand, low diversity and equitability in phytoplankton population were observed at Station 1 during the month of January, 2011. It may be due to dominance of mono specific cells of Rhizosolenia sp. The study indicates low production of phytoplankton in coastal waters. Variation of tides may leave implications on sampling, because it has an influence on species diversity and proportion of specific micro algal groups at different times.

Spatial epidemiology of chronic wasting disease in Wisconsin white-tailed deer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Joly, D.O.; Samuel, M.D.; Langenberg, J.A.; Blanchong, Julie A.; Batha, C.A.; Rolley, R.E.; Keane, D.P.; Ribic, C.A.

2006-01-01

Chronic wasting disease (CWD) is a fatal, emerging disease of cervids associated with transmissible protease-resistant prion proteins. The potential for CWD to cause dramatic declines in deer and elk populations and perceived human health risks associated with consuming CWD-contaminated venison have led wildlife agencies to embark on extensive CWD control programs, typically involving culling to reduce deer populations. We characterized the spatial distribution of CWD in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Wisconsin to facilitate CWD management. We found that CWD prevalence declined with distance from a central location, was locally correlated at a scale of 3.6 km, and was correlated with deer habitat abundance. The latter result is consistent with patterns expected for a positive relationship between density and prevalence of CWD. We recommend management activities focused on culling in geographic areas with high prevalence to have the greatest probability of removing infected individuals. Further research is needed to elucidate the factors in envolved in CWD spread and infection rates, especially the role of density-dependent transmission. ?? Wildlife Disease Association 2006.

Natal and breeding philopatry in a black brant, Branta bernicla nigricans, metapopulation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindberg, Mark S.; Sedinger, James S.; Derksen, Dirk V.; Rockwell, Robert F.

1998-01-01

We estimated natal and breeding philopatry and dispersal probabilities for a metapopulation of Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) based on observations of marked birds at six breeding colonies in Alaska, 1986–1994. Both adult females and males exhibited high (>0.90) probability of philopatry to breeding colonies. Probability of natal philopatry was significantly higher for females than males. Natal dispersal of males was recorded between every pair of colonies, whereas natal dispersal of females was observed between only half of the colony pairs. We suggest that female-biased philopatry was the result of timing of pair formation and characteristics of the mating system of brant, rather than factors related to inbreeding avoidance or optimal discrepancy. Probability of natal philopatry of females increased with age but declined with year of banding. Age-related increase in natal philopatry was positively related to higher breeding probability of older females. Declines in natal philopatry with year of banding corresponded negatively to a period of increasing population density; therefore, local population density may influence the probability of nonbreeding and gene flow among colonies.

The latitudinal gradient of the NO peak density

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fesen, C. G.; Rusch, D. W.; Gerard, J.-C.

1990-01-01

Results are presented from SME observations of the latitudinal gradients of peak NO densities at about 110-km altitude during the solstice and equinox periods from 1982 through 1985. It is shown that the response of the peak NO densities to the declining level of solar activity varies with latitude, with the polar regions exhibiting low sensitivity and the low-latitude regions responding strongly. The SME data also revealed marked asymmetries in the latitudinal structure of the two hemispheres for each season and considerable day-to-day variations in the NO densities. The solar cycle minimum data for June were simulated using a two-dimensional model; results of sensitivity studies performed with varied quenching rate and eddy diffusion coefficient are presented.

Empirical estimation of recreational exploitation of burbot, Lota lota, in the Wind River drainage of Wyoming using a multistate capture–recapture model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lewandoski, S. A.; Guy, Christopher S.; Zale, Alexander V.; Gerrity, Paul C.; Deromedi, J. W.; Johnson, K.M.; Skates, D. L.

2017-01-01

Burbot, Lota lota (Linnaeus), is a regionally popular sportfish in the Wind River drainage of Wyoming, USA, at the southern boundary of the range of the species. Recent declines in burbot abundances were hypothesised to be caused by overexploitation, entrainment in irrigation canals and habitat loss. This study addressed the overexploitation hypothesis using tagging data to generate reliable exploitation, abundance and density estimates from a multistate capture–recapture model that accounted for incomplete angler reporting and tag loss. Exploitation rate μ was variable among the study lakes and inversely correlated with density. Exploitation thresholds μ40 associated with population densities remaining above 40% of carrying capacity were generated to characterise risk of overharvest using exploitation and density estimates from tagging data and a logistic surplus-production model parameterised with data from other burbot populations. Bull Lake (μ = 0.06, 95% CI: 0.03–0.11; μ40 = 0.18) and Torrey Lake (μ = 0.02, 95% CI: 0.00–0.11; μ40 = 0.18) had a low risk of overfishing, Upper Dinwoody Lake had intermediate risk (μ = 0.08, 95% CI: 0.02–0.32; μ40 = 0.18) and Lower Dinwoody Lake had high risk (μ = 0.32, 95% CI: 0.10–0.67; μ40 = 0.08). These exploitation and density estimates can be used to guide sustainable management of the Wind River drainage recreational burbot fishery and inform management of other burbot fisheries elsewhere.

Sexual conflict and the evolution of asexuality at low population densities.

PubMed

Gerber, Nina; Kokko, Hanna

2016-10-26

Theories for the evolution of sex rarely include facultatively sexual reproduction. Sexual harassment by males is an underappreciated factor: it should at first sight increase the relative advantage of asexual reproduction by increasing the cost of sex. However, if the same females can perform either sexual or asexual life cycles, then females trying to reproduce asexually may not escape harassment. If resisting male harassment is costly, it might be beneficial for a female to accept a mating and undertake a sexual life cycle rather than 'insist' on an asexual one. We investigate the effects of sexual harassment on the maintenance of sex under different population densities. Our model shows that resisting matings pays off at low population densities, which leads to the complete extinction of males, and thus to the evolution of completely asexual populations. Facultative sex persists in a narrow range of slightly higher densities. At high densities, selection favours giving up resisting male mating attempts and thus sexual reproduction takes over. These interactions between the outcomes of sexual conflict and population density suggest an explanation for the rarity of facultative sex and also patterns of geographical parthenogenesis, where marginal environments with potentially low densities are associated with asexuality. © 2016 The Author(s).

Application of adaptive cluster sampling to low-density populations of freshwater mussels

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, D.R.; Villella, R.F.; Lemarie, D.P.

2003-01-01

Freshwater mussels appear to be promising candidates for adaptive cluster sampling because they are benthic macroinvertebrates that cluster spatially and are frequently found at low densities. We applied adaptive cluster sampling to estimate density of freshwater mussels at 24 sites along the Cacapon River, WV, where a preliminary timed search indicated that mussels were present at low density. Adaptive cluster sampling increased yield of individual mussels and detection of uncommon species; however, it did not improve precision of density estimates. Because finding uncommon species, collecting individuals of those species, and estimating their densities are important conservation activities, additional research is warranted on application of adaptive cluster sampling to freshwater mussels. However, at this time we do not recommend routine application of adaptive cluster sampling to freshwater mussel populations. The ultimate, and currently unanswered, question is how to tell when adaptive cluster sampling should be used, i.e., when is a population sufficiently rare and clustered for adaptive cluster sampling to be efficient and practical? A cost-effective procedure needs to be developed to identify biological populations for which adaptive cluster sampling is appropriate.

Ranging behaviour and habitat preferences of the Martial Eagle: Implications for the conservation of a declining apex predator

PubMed Central

van Eeden, Rowen; Whitfield, D. Philip; Botha, Andre; Amar, Arjun

2017-01-01

Understanding the ranging behaviours of species can be helpful in effective conservation planning. However, for many species that are rare, occur at low densities, or occupy challenging environments, this information is often lacking. The Martial Eagle (Polemaetus bellicosus) is a low density apex predator declining in both non-protected and protected areas in southern Africa, and little is known about its ranging behaviour. We use GPS tags fitted to Martial Eagles (n = 8) in Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa to describe their ranging behaviour and habitat preference. This represents the first time that such movements have been quantified in adult Martial Eagles. Territorial eagles (n = 6) held home ranges averaging ca. 108 km2. Home range estimates were similar to expectations based on inter-nest distances, and these large home range sizes could constrain the carrying capacity of even the largest conservation areas. Two tagged individuals classed as adults on plumage apparently did not hold a territory, and accordingly ranged more widely (ca. 44,000 km2), and beyond KNP boundaries as floaters. Another two territorial individuals abandoned their territories and joined the ‘floater’ population, and so ranged widely after leaving their territories. These unexpected movements after territory abandonment could indicate underlying environmental degradation. Relatively high mortality of these wide-ranging ‘floaters’ due to anthropogenic causes (three of four) raises further concerns for the species’ persistence. Habitat preference models suggested Martial Eagles used areas preferentially that were closer to rivers, had higher tree cover, and were classed as dense bush rather than open bush or grassland. These results can be used by conservation managers to help guide actions to preserve breeding Martial Eagles at an appropriate spatial scale. PMID:28306744

China's Population Policy at the Crossroads: Social Impacts and Prospects

PubMed Central

Jiang, Quanbao; Li, Shuzhuo; Feldman, Marcus W.

2015-01-01

China's total fertility rate fell below replacement level in the 1990s. From the 1970s the fertility rate declined dramatically, mainly as a consequence of the national population policy whose aim has been to limit birth numbers, control population growth and boost economic growth. Having achieved such a low fertility rate, how will China's population policy evolve in the future? This paper first reviews the history of China's population policy since 1970 in terms of three stages: 1970-1979; 1980-1999; and after 2000. We explore the impacts of China's population policy, including relief of pressure on China's environment and resources, fertility decline, the unexpectedly high male-biased sex ratio at birth (SRB), the coming shortage of labor force, and the rapid aging of the population. We also investigate ethical issues raised by the implementation of the policy and its results. Finally we introduce the controversy over potential adjustment of the policy, acknowledging the problems faced by western countries with low fertility and countermeasures they have taken. We offer some suggestions that might be appropriate in the Chinese context. PMID:26612983

Population density and suicide in Scotland.

PubMed

Stark, Cameron; Hopkins, Paddy; Gibbs, Diane; Belbin, Alan; Hay, Alistair

2007-01-01

Suicide rates among men have increased in Scotland while falling in neighbouring countries. A national suicide prevention strategy has been produced. Previous work found that some rural areas of Scotland had higher than average rates of male suicide and undetermined deaths. This article describes the association between population density and suicide and undetermined death rates in Scotland. Anonymised information on deaths from suicide and undetermined cause in Scotland were obtained from the General Registrar Office for 1981-1999, including information on postcode sector. Each postcode sector was assigned a deprivation and population density score. Loglinear models were used to examine the effects of time period (grouped into four periods), deprivation quintiles, population density (grouped into four categories) and their interactions in each sex in three age groups. A significance level of 5% was used throughout. Adjusted rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals were based on models that included only significant factors and interactions. In men, there were higher rate ratios in the most densely populated and least densely populated quartiles, with intermediate rate ratios in other areas. There was no association with population density in women aged less than 25 years, a similar pattern to men in 25-44 year old women, and lower rates in rural areas in older women. Higher levels of deprivation were associated with higher rate ratios of suicide in both sexes and all age groups. Rate ratios over time increased in younger men and women, remained stable in older men, and declined in older women. Deprivation is associated with higher rates of suicide and undetermined deaths at all levels of population density and in all age groups. The highest rates of suicide among men are in the most and least densely populated areas, after adjusting for deprivation. The effect is different among women, with no effect among younger women, and lower rates among older women in areas with lower population density.

Short-term impacts of a 4-lane highway on black bears in eastern North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Manen, Frank T.; McCollister, Matthew F.; Nicholson, Jeremy M.; Thompson, Laura M.; Kindall, Jason L.; Jones, Mark D.

2012-01-01

Among numerous anthropogenic impacts on terrestrial landscapes, expanding transportation networks represent one of the primary challenges to wildlife conservation worldwide. Larger mammals may be particularly vulnerable because of typically low densities, low reproductive rates, and extensive movements. Although numerous studies have been conducted to document impacts of road networks on wildlife, inference has been limited because of experimental design limitations. During the last decade, the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) rerouted and upgraded sections of United States Highway 64 between Raleigh and the Outer Banks to a 4-lane, divided highway. A new route was selected for a 24.1-km section in Washington County. The new section of highway included 3 wildlife underpasses with adjacent wildlife fencing to mitigate the effects of the highway on wildlife, particularly American black bears (Ursus americanus). We assessed the short-term impacts of the new highway on spatial ecology, population size, survival, occupancy, and gene flow of black bears. We tested our research hypotheses using a before-after control-impact (BACI) study design. We collected data during 2000–2001 (preconstruction phase) and 2006–2007 (postconstruction phase) in the highway project area and a nearby control area (each approx. 11,000 ha), resulting in 4 groups of data (i.e., pre- or postconstruction study phase, treatment or control area). We captured and radiocollared 57 bears and collected 5,775 hourly locations and 4,998 daily locations. Using mixed-model analysis of variance and logistic regression, we detected no differences in home ranges, movement characteristics, proximity to the highway alignment, or habitat use between the 2 study phases, although minimum detectable effect sizes were large for several tests. However, after completion of the new highway, bears on the treatment area became less inactive in morning, when highway traffic was low, compared with bears on the control area (F1, 43 = 6.05, P = 0.018). We used DNA from hair samples to determine if population size and site occupancy decreased following highway construction. For each study phase, we collected black bear hair from 70 hair snares on each study area during 7 weekly sampling periods and generated genotypes using 10 microsatellite loci. We used the multilocus genotypes to obtain capture histories for 226 different bears and used capture-mark-recapture models to estimate population size. Model-averaged estimates of population size decreased on the treatment area from 87.7 bears before construction to 31.6 bears after construction (64% reduction) and on the control area from 163.6 bears to 108.2 bears (34% reduction). Permutation procedures indicated this reduction was proportionally greater for the treatment area (P = 0.086). We also applied a spatially explicit capture-recapture technique to test our research hypothesis. The model with the most support indicated a greater change in density on the treatment area (69% reduction) compared with the control area (24% reduction). We did not observe a treatment effect based on survival of radiocollared bears. We used bear visits to hair snares as detections in multi-season occupancy models and found that occupancy decreased more on the treatment area (preconstruction: Ψ = 0.84; postconstruction: Ψ = 0.44; 48% decline) than the control area (preconstruction: Ψ = 0.91; postconstruction: Ψ = 0.81; 11% decline), primarily as a function of a greater probability of site extinctions (ε) on the treatment area (ε = 0.57) than the control area (ε = 0.17). Finally, individual- and population-based analyses of contemporary gene flow did not indicate the highway was a barrier to movements. Black bear use of the 3 wildlife underpasses was infrequent (17 verified crossings based on remote cameras, track surveys, and telemetry). Only 4 of 8 bears with home ranges near the highway were documented crossing the highway (n = 36 crossings), of which 2 were killed in vehicle collisions. Six additional bears were killed in vehicle collisions from May 2007 to November 2008, after we completed field work. Harvest data indicated that hunting mortality alone could explain the population decline on the control area. On the treatment area, however, hunting mortality only accounted for an approximately 40% population decline; the additional 30% decline we observed likely was caused by other mortality. We speculate vehicle collisions were primarily responsible. We conclude that impacts of the new highway on resident black bears occurred at the population level, rather than the individual or genetic level, but that the impact was smaller than harvest mortality. Increased activity by remaining bears when traffic volumes were low indicated behavioral plasticity. Bear use of the underpasses seemed sufficient to maintain gene flow between areas north and south of the new highway. Effectiveness of wildlife underpasses to reduce mortality of black bears may be enhanced if mitigation includes continuous fencing between crossing structures. For small, isolated populations of threatened or endangered large mammals, the potential demographic impacts of highways are an essential consideration in the transportation planning process. Control of mortality factors and maintaining demographic connectivity are particularly important.

Climate, CO2 and human population impacts on global wildfire emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

2016-01-01

Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilisation of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation.

Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation-wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations use Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models. These were combined with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to assess the sensitivity of emissions to the effect of climate, CO2 and humans. In addition, two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model were applied. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and fast urbanisation, or continue to decline for high population growth and slow urbanisation. Only for high future climate change (RCP8.5), wildfire emissions start to rise again after ca. 2020 but are unlikely to reach the levels of 1900 by the end of the 21st century. We find that climate warming will generally increase the risk of fire, but that this is only one of several equally important factors driving future levels of wildfire emissions, which include population change, CO2 fertilisation causing woody thickening, increased productivity and fuel load and faster litter turnover in a warmer climate.

[Effects of Trace Environmental Chemicals on Child Health-Lead as an Example].

PubMed

Matsukawa, Takehisa; Yokoyama, Kazuhito; Vigeh, Mohsen; Nishioka, Emiko

2018-01-01

The low birthrate and aging population of Japan are entering a serious phase. As measures against the declining birthrate, improvement of the environment is promoted to support childbirth and child-rearing, but even if the birthrate increases in the future, it will take time before the effect is observed as an increase in the population. As the number of children and young people is decreasing, in order to maintain a wealthy and sustainable society, we should create an environment wherein each child can grow healthily and demonstrate sufficient abilities in participating in society. The authors have been studying the influence of exposure to environmental chemical substances on the development of children. Lead is especially considered to impair neurological development even at low concentrations of exposure. In this paper, using lead as an example, we discuss risk assessment and countermeasures for the health effects of trace chemical substances on a society with a declining birthrate. Substances that show neurotoxicity increase social costs even at low concentrations of exposure. To preserve and promote social vitality in Japan despite the declining birthrate and aging population, it is essential that measures are taken on the basis of scientifically reasonable cost/benefit assessment. For this purpose, we think that it is necessary to analyze costs and benefits in addition to the risk assessment of low concentrations of chemical substances.

American Marten Respond to Seismic Lines in Northern Canada at Two Spatial Scales

PubMed Central

Tigner, Jesse; Bayne, Erin M.; Boutin, Stan

2015-01-01

Development of hydrocarbon resources across northwest Canada has spurred economic prosperity and generated concerns over impacts to biodiversity. To balance these interests, numerous jurisdictions have adopted management thresholds that allow for limited energy development but minimize undesirable impacts to wildlife. Used for exploration, seismic lines are the most abundant linear feature in the boreal forest and exist at a variety of widths and recovery states. We used American marten (Martes americana) as a model species to measure how line attributes influence species’ response to seismic lines, and asked whether responses to individual lines trigger population impacts. Marten response to seismic lines was strongly influenced by line width and recovery state. Compared to forest interiors, marten used open seismic lines ≥ 3 m wide less often, but used open lines ≤ 2 m wide and partially recovered lines ≥ 6 m wide similarly. Marten response to individual line types appeared to trigger population impacts. The probability of occurrence at the home range scale declined with increasing seismic line density, and the inclusion of behavioral response to line density calculations improved model fit. In our top performing model, we excluded seismic lines ≤ 2 m from our calculation of line density, and the probability of occurrence declined > 80% between home ranges with the lowest and highest line densities. Models that excluded seismic lines did not strongly explain occurrence. We show how wildlife-derived metrics can inform regulatory guidelines to increase the likelihood those guidelines meet intended management objectives. With respect to marten, not all seismic lines constitute disturbances, but avoidance of certain line types scales to population impacts. This approach provides the ecological context required to understand cause and effect relationships among socio-economic and ecological conservation goals. PMID:25768848

DENSITY-DEPENDENT EVOLUTION OF LIFE-HISTORY TRAITS IN DROSOPHILA MELANOGASTER.

PubMed

Bierbaum, Todd J; Mueller, Laurence D; Ayala, Francisco J

1989-03-01

Populations of Drosophila melanogaster were maintained for 36 generations in r- and K-selected environments in order to test the life-history predictions of theories on density-dependent selection. In the r-selection environment, populations were reduced to low densities by density-independent adult mortality, whereas populations in the K-selection environment were maintained at their carrying capacity. Some of the experimental results support the predictions or r- and K-selection theory; relative to the r-selected populations, the K-selected populations evolved an increased larval-to-adult viability, larger body size, and longer development time at high larval densities. Mueller and Ayala (1981) found that K-selected populations also have a higher rate of population growth at high densities. Other predictions of the thoery are contradicted by the lack of differences between the r and K populations in adult longevity and fecundity and a slower rate of development for r-selected individuals at low densities. The differences between selected populations in larval survivorship, larval-to-adult development time, and adult body size are strongly dependent on larval density, and there is a significant interaction between populations and larval density for each trait. This manifests an inadequacy of the theory on r- and K-selection, which does not take into account such interactions between genotypes and environments. We describe mechanisms that may explain the evolution of preadult life-history traits in our experiment and discuss the need for changes in theories of density-dependent selection. © 1989 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Demographics of an ornate box turtle population experiencing minimal human-induced disturbances

USGS Publications Warehouse

Converse, S.J.; Iverson, J.B.; Savidge, J.A.

2005-01-01

Human-induced disturbances may threaten the viability of many turtle populations, including populations of North American box turtles. Evaluation of the potential impacts of these disturbances can be aided by long-term studies of populations subject to minimal human activity. In such a population of ornate box turtles (Terrapene ornata ornata) in western Nebraska, we examined survival rates and population growth rates from 1981-2000 based on mark-recapture data. The average annual apparent survival rate of adult males was 0.883 (SE = 0.021) and of adult females was 0.932 (SE = 0.014). Minimum winter temperature was the best of five climate variables as a predictor of adult survival. Survival rates were highest in years with low minimum winter temperatures, suggesting that global warming may result in declining survival. We estimated an average adult population growth rate (????) of 1.006 (SE = 0.065), with an estimated temporal process variance (????2) of 0.029 (95% CI = 0.005-0.176). Stochastic simulations suggest that this mean and temporal process variance would result in a 58% probability of a population decrease over a 20-year period. This research provides evidence that, unless unknown density-dependent mechanisms are operating in the adult age class, significant human disturbances, such as commercial harvest or turtle mortality on roads, represent a potential risk to box turtle populations. ?? 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

Changes in Breast Cancer Risk Distribution Among Vermont Women Using Screening Mammography

PubMed Central

Bolton, Kenyon C.; Mace, John L.; Vacek, Pamela M.; Herschorn, Sally D.; James, Ted A.; Tice, Jeffrey A.; Kerlikowske, Karla; Geller, Berta M.; Weaver, Donald L.

2014-01-01

Background Screening mammography utilization in Vermont has declined since 2009 during a time of changing screening guidelines and increased interest in personalized screening regimens. This study evaluates whether the breast cancer risk distribution of the state’s screened population changed during the observed decline. Methods We examined the breast cancer risk distribution among screened women between 2001 and 2012 using data from the Vermont Breast Cancer Surveillance System. We estimated each screened woman’s 5-year risk of breast cancer using the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium risk calculator. Annual screening counts by risk group were normalized and age-adjusted to the Vermont female population by direct standardization. Results The normalized rate of low-risk (5-year breast cancer risk of <1%) women screened increased 8.3% per year (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.8 to 11.9) between 2003 and 2008 and then declined by −5.4% per year (95% CI = −8.1 to −2.6) until 2012. When stratified by age group, the rate of low-risk women screened declined −4.4% per year (95% CI = −8.8 to 0.1; not statistically significant) for ages 40 to 49 years and declined a statistically significant −7.1% per year (95% CI = −12.1 to −2.0) for ages 50 to 74 years during 2008 to 2012. These declines represented the bulk of overall decreases in screening after 2008, with rates for women categorized in higher risk levels generally exhibiting small annual changes. Conclusions The observed decline in women screened in Vermont in recent years is largely attributable to reductions in screening visits by women who are at low risk of developing breast cancer. PMID:24957223

Competition between harvester ants and rodents in the cold desert

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Landeen, D.S.; Jorgensen, C.D.; Smith, H.D.

1979-09-30

Local distribution patterns of three rodent species (Perognathus parvus, Peromyscus maniculatus, Reithrodontomys megalotis) were studied in areas of high and low densities of harvester ants (Pogonomyrmex owyheei) in Raft River Valley, Idaho. Numbers of rodents were greatest in areas of high ant-density during May, but partially reduced in August; whereas, the trend was reversed in areas of low ant-density. Seed abundance was probably not the factor limiting changes in rodent populations, because seed densities of annual plants were always greater in areas of high ant-density. Differences in seasonal population distributions of rodents between areas of high and low ant-densities weremore » probably due to interactions of seed availability, rodent energetics, and predation.« less

Effects of flow regimes altered by dams on survival, population declines, and range-wide losses of California river-breeding frogs.

PubMed

Kupferberg, Sarah J; Palen, Wendy J; Lind, Amy J; Bobzien, Steve; Catenazzi, Alessandro; Drennan, Joe; Power, Mary E

2012-06-01

Widespread alteration of natural hydrologic patterns by large dams combined with peak demands for power and water delivery during summer months have resulted in frequent aseasonal flow pulses in rivers of western North America. Native species in these ecosystems have evolved with predictable annual flood-drought cycles; thus, their likelihood of persistence may decrease in response to disruption of the seasonal synchrony between stable low-flow conditions and reproduction. We evaluated whether altered flow regimes affected 2 native frogs in California and Oregon (U.S.A.) at 4 spatial and temporal extents. We examined changes in species distribution over approximately 50 years, current population density in 11 regulated and 16 unregulated rivers, temporal trends in abundance among populations occupying rivers with different hydrologic histories, and within-year patterns of survival relative to seasonal hydrology. The foothill yellow-legged frog (Rana boylii), which breeds only in flowing water, is more likely to be absent downstream of large dams than in free-flowing rivers, and breeding populations are on average 5 times smaller in regulated rivers than in unregulated rivers. Time series data (range = 8 - 19 years) from 5 populations of yellow-legged frogs and 2 populations of California red-legged frogs (R. draytonii) across a gradient of natural to highly artificial timing and magnitude of flooding indicate that variability of flows in spring and summer is strongly correlated with high mortality of early life stages and subsequent decreases in densities of adult females. Flow management that better mimics natural flow timing is likely to promote persistence of these species and others with similar phenology. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

Lake whitefish and Diporeia spp. in the Great lakes: an overview

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nalepa, Thomas F.; Mohr, Lloyd C.; Henderson, Bryan A.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Schneeberger, Philip J.

2005-01-01

Because of growing concern in the Great Lakes over declines in abundance and growth of lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) and declines in abundance of the benthic amphipod Diporeia spp., a workshop was held to examine past and current trends, to explore trophic links, and to discuss the latest research results and needs. The workshop was divided into sessions on the status of populations in each of the lakes, bioenergetics and trophic dynamics, and exploitation and management. Abundance, growth, and condition of whitefish populations in Lakes Superior and Erie are stable and within the range of historical means, but these variables are declining in Lakes Michigan and Ontario and parts of Lake Huron. The loss of Diporeia spp., a major food item of whitefish, has been a factor in observed declines, particularly in Lake Ontario, but density-dependent factors also likely played a role in Lakes Michigan and Huron. The loss of Diporeia spp. is temporally linked to the introduction and proliferation of dreissenid mussels, but a direct cause for the negative response of Diporeia spp. has not been established. Given changes in whitefish populations, age-structured models need to be re-evaluated. Other whitefish research needs to include a better understanding of what environmental conditions lead to strong year-classes, improved aging techniques, and better information on individual population (stock) structure. Further collaborations between assessment biologists and researchers studying the lower food web would enhance an understanding of links between trophic levels.

World Population Stabilization Unlikely This Century

PubMed Central

Gerland, Patrick; Raftery, Adrian E.; Ševcíková, Hana; Li, Nan; Gu, Danan; Spoorenberg, Thomas; Alkema, Leontine; Fosdick, Bailey K.; Chunn, Jennifer; Lalic, Nevena; Bay, Guiomar; Buettner, Thomas; Heilig, Gerhard K.; Wilmoth, John

2014-01-01

The United Nations recently released population projections based on data until 2012 and a Bayesian probabilistic methodology. Analysis of these data reveals that, contrary to previous literature, world population is unlikely to stop growing this century. There is an 80% probability that world population, now 7.2 billion, will increase to between 9.6 and 12.3 billion in 2100. This uncertainty is much smaller than the range from the traditional UN high and low variants. Much of the increase is expected to happen in Africa, in part due to higher fertility and a recent slowdown in the pace of fertility decline. Also, the ratio of working age people to older people is likely to decline substantially in all countries, even those that currently have young populations. PMID:25301627

Benthic prey fish assessment, Lake Ontario 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weidel, Brian C.; Walsh, Maureen; Connerton, Michael J.

2014-01-01

The 2013 benthic fish assessment was delayed and shortened as a result of the U.S. Government shutdown, however the assessment collected 51 of the 62 planned bottom trawls. Over the past 34 years, Slimy Sculpin abundance in Lake Ontario has fluctuated, but ultimately decreased by two orders of magnitude, with a substantial decline occurring in the past 10 years. The 2013 Slimy Sculpin mean bottom trawl catch density (0.001 ind.·m-2, s.d.= 0.0017, n = 52) and mean biomass density (0.015 g·m-2 , s.d.= 0.038, n = 52) were the lowest recorded in the 27 years of sampling using the original bottom trawl design. From 2011-2013, the Slimy Sculpin density and biomass density has decreased by approximately 50% each year. Spring bottom trawl catches illustrate Slimy Sculpin and Round Goby Neogobius melanostoma winter habitat overlaps for as much as 7 months out of a year, providing opportunities for competition and predation. Invasive species, salmonid piscivory, and declines in native benthic invertebrates are likely all important drivers of Slimy Sculpin population dynamics in Lake Ontario. Deepwater Sculpin Myoxocephalus thompsonii, considered rare or absent from Lake Ontario for 30 years, have generally increased over the past eight years. For the first time since they were caught in this assessment, Deepwater Sculpin density and biomass density estimates declined from the previous year. The 2013 abundance and density estimates for trawls covering the standard depths from 60m to 150m was 0.0001 fish per square meter and 0.0028 grams per square meter. In 2013, very few small (< 80 mm) Deepwater Sculpin were caught and most sculpin were at sites of 150 meters or greater, which is in contrast to previous years when juvenile fish were caught around 80-100 meters. The reduced effort and late seasonal timing of the 2013 assessment make it difficult to have high confidence in declines observed in 2013, however observed Alewife Alosa psuedoharengus abundance increases and reduced juvenile Deepwater Sculpin catches are consistent with the hypothesis that Alewife negatively influence Deepwater Sculpin recruitment. Nonnative Round Gobies were first detected in the USGS/NYSDEC Lake Ontario spring Alewife assessment in 2002. Since that assessment, observations indicate their population has expanded and they are now found along the entire south shore of Lake Ontario, with the highest densities in U.S. waters just east of the Niagara River confluence. In the 2013 spring-based assessment, both the abundance and weight indices increased slightly as compared to 2012. The number index value of 16.6 was 30% of the maximum number observed in 2008 when the number index was 95.2. Round Goby density estimates from the 2013 fall benthic prey fish survey were 33 times greater than fall Slimy Sculpin density, indicating Round Goby are now the dominant Lake Ontario benthic prey fish.

Ecosystem scale declines in elk recruitment and population growth with wolf colonization: a before-after-control-impact approach.

PubMed

Christianson, David; Creel, Scott

2014-01-01

The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk--Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves.

Selective predation and rapid evolution can jointly dampen effects of virulent parasites on Daphnia populations.

PubMed

Duffy, Meghan A; Hall, Spencer R

2008-04-01

Parasites are ubiquitous and often highly virulent, yet clear examples of parasite-driven changes in host density in natural populations are surprisingly scarce. Here, we illustrate an example of this phenomenon and offer a theoretically reasonable resolution. We document the effects of two parasites, the bacterium Spirobacillus cienkowskii and the yeast Metschnikowia bicuspidata, on a common freshwater invertebrate, Daphnia dentifera. We show that while both parasites were quite virulent to individual hosts, only bacterial epidemics were associated with significant changes in host population dynamics and density. Our theoretical results may help explain why yeast epidemics did not significantly affect population dynamics. Using a model parameterized with data we collected, we argue that two prominent features of this system, rapid evolution of host resistance to the parasite and selective predation on infected hosts, both decrease peak infection prevalence and can minimize decline in host density during epidemics. Taken together, our results show that understanding the outcomes of host-parasite interactions in this Daphnia-microparasite system may require consideration of ecological context and evolutionary processes and their interaction.

Fishery-independent data reveal negative effect of human population density on Caribbean predatory fish communities.

PubMed

Stallings, Christopher D

2009-01-01

Understanding the current status of predatory fish communities, and the effects fishing has on them, is vitally important information for management. However, data are often insufficient at region-wide scales to assess the effects of extraction in coral reef ecosystems of developing nations. Here, I overcome this difficulty by using a publicly accessible, fisheries-independent database to provide a broad scale, comprehensive analysis of human impacts on predatory reef fish communities across the greater Caribbean region. Specifically, this study analyzed presence and diversity of predatory reef fishes over a gradient of human population density. Across the region, as human population density increases, presence of large-bodied fishes declines, and fish communities become dominated by a few smaller-bodied species. Complete disappearance of several large-bodied fishes indicates ecological and local extinctions have occurred in some densely populated areas. These findings fill a fundamentally important gap in our knowledge of the ecosystem effects of artisanal fisheries in developing nations, and provide support for multiple approaches to data collection where they are commonly unavailable.

Fishery-Independent Data Reveal Negative Effect of Human Population Density on Caribbean Predatory Fish Communities

PubMed Central

Stallings, Christopher D.

2009-01-01

Background Understanding the current status of predatory fish communities, and the effects fishing has on them, is vitally important information for management. However, data are often insufficient at region-wide scales to assess the effects of extraction in coral reef ecosystems of developing nations. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, I overcome this difficulty by using a publicly accessible, fisheries-independent database to provide a broad scale, comprehensive analysis of human impacts on predatory reef fish communities across the greater Caribbean region. Specifically, this study analyzed presence and diversity of predatory reef fishes over a gradient of human population density. Across the region, as human population density increases, presence of large-bodied fishes declines, and fish communities become dominated by a few smaller-bodied species. Conclusions/Significance Complete disappearance of several large-bodied fishes indicates ecological and local extinctions have occurred in some densely populated areas. These findings fill a fundamentally important gap in our knowledge of the ecosystem effects of artisanal fisheries in developing nations, and provide support for multiple approaches to data collection where they are commonly unavailable. PMID:19421312

Groundfish overfishing, diatom decline, and the marine silica cycle: Lessons from Saanich Inlet, Canada, and the Baltic Sea cod crash

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katz, Timor; Yahel, Gitai; Yahel, Ruthy; Tunnicliffe, Verena; Herut, Barak; Snelgrove, Paul; Crusius, John; Lazar, Boaz

2009-12-01

In this study, we link groundfish activity to the marine silica cycle and suggest that the drastic mid-1980s crash of the Baltic Sea cod (Gadus morhua) population triggered a cascade of events leading to decrease in dissolved silica (DSi) and diatom abundance in the water. We suggest that this seemingly unrelated sequence of events was caused by a marked decline in sediment resuspension associated with reduced groundfish activity resulting from the cod crash. In a study in Saanich Inlet, British Columbia, Canada, we discovered that, by resuspending bottom sediments, groundfish triple DSi fluxes from the sediments and reduce silica accumulation therein. Using these findings and the available oceanographic and environmental data from the Baltic Sea, we estimate that overfishing and recruitment failure of Baltic cod reduced by 20% the DSi supply from bottom sediments to the surface water leading to a decline in the diatom population in the Baltic Sea. The major importance of the marginal ocean in the marine silica cycle and the associated high population density of groundfish suggest that groundfish play a major role in the silica cycle. We postulate that dwindling groundfish populations caused by anthropogenic perturbations, e.g., overfishing and bottom water anoxia, may cause shifts in marine phytoplankton communities.

Resolving the interactions between population density and air pollution emissions controls in the San Joaquin Valley, USA.

PubMed

Hixson, Mark; Mahmud, Abdullah; Hu, Jianlin; Kleeman, Michael J

2012-05-01

The effectiveness of emissions control programs designed to reduce concentrations of airborne particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) in California's San Joaquin Valley was studied in the year 2030 under three growth scenarios: low, medium, and high population density. Base-case inventories for each choice of population density were created using a coupled emissions modeling system that simultaneously considered interactions between land use and transportation, area source, and point source emissions. The ambient PM2.5 response to each combination of population density and emissions control was evaluated using a regional chemical transport model over a 3-week winter stagnation episode. Comparisons between scenarios were based on regional average and population-weighted PM2.5 concentrations. In the absence of any emissions control program, population-weighted concentrations of PM2.5 in the future San Joaquin Valley are lowest undergrowth scenarios that emphasize low population density. A complete ban on wood burning and a 90% reduction in emissions from food cooking operations and diesel engines must occur before medium- to high-density growth scenarios result in lower population-weighted concentrations of PM2.5. These trends partly reflect the fact that existing downtown urban cores that naturally act as anchor points for new high-density growth in the San Joaquin Valley are located close to major transportation corridors for goods movement. Adding growth buffers around transportation corridors had little impact in the current analysis, since the 8-km resolution of the chemical transport model already provided an artificial buffer around major emissions sources. Assuming that future emissions controls will greatly reduce or eliminate emissions from residential wood burning, food cooking, and diesel engines, the 2030 growth scenario using "as-planned" (medium) population density achieves the lowest population-weighted average PM2.5 concentration in the future San Joaquin Valley during a severe winter stagnation event. The San Joaquin Valley is one of the most heavily polluted air basins in the United States that are projected to experience strong population growth in the coming decades. The best plan to improve air quality in the region combines medium- or high-density population growth with rigorous emissions controls. In the absences of controls, high-density growth leads to increased population exposure to PM2.5 compared with low-density growth scenarios (urban sprawl).

Peninsula transportation district commission route deviation feasibility study.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-11-01

Many urban transit providers are faced with the problem of declining ridership on traditional fixed route services in low density suburban areas. As a result, many fixed route services in such areas are not economically viable for the transit provide...

Decline of flounder (Platichthys flesus (L.)) at the margin of the species' distribution range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jokinen, Henri; Wennhage, Håkan; Lappalainen, Antti; Ådjers, Kaj; Rask, Martti; Norkko, Alf

2015-11-01

The Baltic Sea is undergoing large-scale environmental change due to eutrophication, climate change, over-exploitation and habitat destruction, with subsequent degradation of living conditions for many fish species. Signs of this unfavorable development are seen as population declines in species affected. We provide the first synthesis and characterization of the recent population decline in European flounder (Platichthys flesus (L.)) in the northern Baltic Sea, using available fishery-independent data from the Finnish coast, which is at the margin of the distribution range of this species. The objective was to document recent changes in the flounder population, identify the onset and quantify the magnitude of the change. The results showed substantial decreases in flounder numbers and biomass across the whole study area during recent decades. Based on the time series data available, flounder abundances declined by 46-97% from the 1990s to the 2000s, with top values in the mid-1990s and current low levels reached in the early 2000s. Additionally, signs of decreasing flounder size and condition were also observed. We discuss potential reasons for the development in terms of environmental change and fishing, and identify potential bottlenecks for population maintenance and mechanisms behind population change, thereby contributing to our general understanding of marginal flounder populations.

Portrait of a small population of boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muths, Erin; Scherer, Rick D.

2011-01-01

Much attention has been given to the conservation of small populations, those that are small because of decline, and those that are naturally small. Small populations are of particular interest because ecological theory suggests that they are vulnerable to the deleterious effects of environmental, demographic, and genetic stochasticity as well as natural and human-induced catastrophes. However, testing theory and developing applicable conservation measures for small populations is hampered by sparse data. This lack of information is frequently driven by computational issues with small data sets that can be confounded by the impacts of stressors. We present estimates of demographic parameters from a small population of Boreal Toads (Anaxyrus boreas) that has been surveyed since 2001 by using capture-recapture methods. Estimates of annual adult survival probability are high relative to other Boreal Toad populations, whereas estimates of recruitment rate are low. Despite using simple models, clear patterns emerged from the analyses, suggesting that population size is constrained by low recruitment of adults and is declining slowly. These patterns provide insights that are useful in developing management directions for this small population, and this study serves as an example of the potential for small populations to yield robust and useful information despite sample size constraints.

Regulation of the seasonal population patterns of Helicoverpa armigera moths by Bt cotton planting.

PubMed

Gao, Yu-Lin; Feng, Hong-Qiang; Wu, Kong-Ming

2010-08-01

Transgenic cotton expressing the Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) Cry1Ac toxin has been commercially cultivated in China since 1997, and by 2000 Bt cotton had almost completely replaced non-transgenic cotton cultivars. To evaluate the impact of Bt cotton planting on the seasonal population patterns of cotton bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera, the dynamics of H. armigera moths were monitored with light traps from four locations (Xiajin, Linqing and Dingtao of Shandong Province; Guantao of Hebei Province) in high Bt density region and five locations (Anci and Xinji of Hebei Province; Dancheng and Fengqiu of Henan Province; Gaomi of Shandong Province) in low Bt density region from 1996 to 2008. A negative correlation was found between moth densities of H. armigera and the planting years of Bt cotton in both high and low Bt density areas. These data indicate that the moth population density of H. armigera was reduced with the introduction of Bt cotton in northern China. Three generations of moths occurred between early June and late September in the cotton regions. Interestingly, second-generation moths decreased and seemed to vanish in recent years in high Bt density region, but this tendency was not found in low Bt density region. The data suggest that the planting of Bt cotton in high Bt density region was effective in controlling the population density of second-generation moths. Furthermore, the seasonal change of moth patterns associated with Bt cotton planting may regulate the regional occurrence and population development of this migratory insect.

Optimising monitoring efforts for secretive snakes: a comparison of occupancy and N-mixture models for assessment of population status.

PubMed

Ward, Robert J; Griffiths, Richard A; Wilkinson, John W; Cornish, Nina

2017-12-22

A fifth of reptiles are Data Deficient; many due to unknown population status. Monitoring snake populations can be demanding due to crypsis and low population densities, with insufficient recaptures for abundance estimation via Capture-Mark-Recapture. Alternatively, binomial N-mixture models enable abundance estimation from count data without individual identification, but have rarely been successfully applied to snake populations. We evaluated the suitability of occupancy and N-mixture methods for monitoring an insular population of grass snakes (Natrix helvetica) and considered covariates influencing detection, occupancy and abundance within remaining habitat. Snakes were elusive, with detectability increasing with survey effort (mean: 0.33 ± 0.06 s.e.m.). The probability of a transect being occupied was moderate (mean per kilometre: 0.44 ± 0.19 s.e.m.) and increased with transect length. Abundance estimates indicate a small threatened population associated to our transects (mean: 39, 95% CI: 20-169). Power analysis indicated that the survey effort required to detect occupancy declines would be prohibitive. Occupancy models fitted well, whereas N-mixture models showed poor fit, provided little extra information over occupancy models and were at greater risk of closure violation. Therefore we suggest occupancy models are more appropriate for monitoring snakes and other elusive species, but that population trends may go undetected.

Bald eagles and sea otters in the Aleutian Archipelago: indirect effects of trophic cascades.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anthony, R.G.; Estes, J.A.; Ricca, M.A.; Miles, A.K.; Forsman, E.D.

2008-01-01

Because sea otters (Enhydra lutris) exert a wide array of direct and indirect effects on coastal marine ecosystems throughout their geographic range, we investigated the potential influence of sea otters on the ecology of Bald Eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) in the Aleutian Islands, Alaska, USA. We studied the diets, productivity, and density of breeding Bald Eagles on four islands during 1993–1994 and 2000–2002, when sea otters were abundant and scarce, respectively. Bald Eagles depend on nearshore marine communities for most of their prey in this ecosystem, so we predicted that the recent decline in otter populations would have an indirect negative effect on diets and demography of Bald Eagles. Contrary to our predictions, we found no effects on density of breeding pairs on four islands from 1993–1994 to 2000–2002. In contrast, diets and diet diversity of Bald Eagles changed considerably between the two time periods, likely reflecting a change in prey availability resulting from the increase and subsequent decline in sea otter populations. The frequency of sea otter pups, rock greenling (Hexagammus lagocephalus), and smooth lumpsuckers (Aptocyclus ventricosus) in the eagle's diet declined with corresponding increases in Rock Ptarmigan (Lagopus mutus), Glaucous-winged Gulls (Larus glaucescens), Atka mackerel (Pleurogrammus monopterygius), and various species of seabirds during the period of the recent otter population decline. Breeding success and productivity of Bald Eagles also increased during this time period, which may be due to the higher nutritional quality of avian prey consumed in later years. Our results provide further evidence of the wide-ranging indirect effects of sea otter predation on nearshore marine communities and another apex predator, the Bald Eagle. Although the indirect effects of sea otters are widely known, this example is unique because the food-web pathway transcended five species and several trophic levels in linking one apex predator to another.

Status and trends of prey fish populations in Lake Superior, 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gorman, Owen T.; Evrard, Lori M.; Cholwek, Gary A.; Falck, Jill M.; Yule, Daniel

2009-01-01

The Great Lakes Science Center has conducted annual daytime bottom trawl surveys of the Lake Superior nearshore (15-80 m bathymetric depth zone) every spring since 1978 to provide a long-term index of relative abundance and biomass of the fish community. Between May 5 and June 14, 2008, 58 stations were sampled around the perimeter of the lake with 12-m wide bottom trawls. Trawls were deployed cross-contour at median start and end depths of 17 and 55 m, respectively. The lakewide mean relative biomass estimate for the entire fish community was 4.61 kg/ha which was similar to that measured in 2007, 4.81 kg/ha. Dominant species in the catch were lake whitefish, rainbow smelt, longnose sucker and cisco, which represented 49, 18, 11, and 7 % of the total community biomass, respectively. Compared to 2007 levels, lake whitefish and cisco biomass increased 35% and 55%, respectively, while bloater and rainbow smelt biomass declined 69% and 41%, respectively. Increased biomass of lake whitefish and decreased biomass in bloater represent trends observed since 2007; however, reversed trends in biomass were observed for cisco and rainbow smelt. Year-class strength for the 2007 cisco cohort (0.20 fish/ha) was below the long-term (1977-2007) average (73.31 fish/ha), as was year-class strength for the 2007 bloater cohort (0.33 fish/ha) compared to the long-term average (11.11 fish/ha). Smelt year class strength (226.26 fish/ha) continues a trend of increasing strength from a 31-year low of 56.75 fish/ha in 2001 and was above the long-term average of 193.81 fish/ha. The 2008 cisco age structure was dominated by age 5 and older fish, which accounted for 82% of the mean relative density. Wisconsin waters continue to be the most productive (mean total community biomass of 17.09 kg/ha), followed by western Ontario (5.40 kg/ha), eastern Ontario (3.08 kg/ha), Michigan (2.82 kg/ha), and Minnesota (0.89 kg/ha).Densities of small (400 mm) hatchery lake trout continued a pattern of decline observed since 1993-1996 to 0.04, 0.03 and 0.01 fish/ha in 2008, respectively. Densities of small and large wild (lean) lake trout continued a decreasing trend observed since 1996-1998. From 2007 to 2008, density of small lean lake trout declined from 0.29 to 0.15 fish/ha, the lowest value since 1978. Density of large lean lake trout has been relatively stable since 1986 but more recently density declined from 0.43 fish/ha in 2006 to 0.10 fish/ha in 2008. Density of intermediate size lean lake trout showed a small increase from 0.31 in 2007 to 0.41 fish/ha in 2008. Siscowet lake trout have shown a pattern of variable but increasing density since 1980. Since 2006, densities of small and intermediate size siscowet lake trout have increased from 0.10 to 0.12 and 0.08 to 0.15 fish/ha, respectively. Densities of large siscowet lake trout have fluctuated between 0.10 and 0.07 fish/ha since 2000. In 2008 the proportions of total lake trout density that were hatchery, lean and siscowet were 8, 60, and 32%, respectively.

Lying in wait: Limiting factors on a low-density ungulate population and the latent traits that can facilitate escape from them

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joly, Kyle; Craig, Tim; Cameron, Matthew D.; Gall, Adrian E.; Sorum, Mathew S.

2017-11-01

Predation, habitat, hunting, and environmental conditions have all been implicated as regulatory mechanisms in ungulate populations. The low-density equilibrium hypothesis predicts that in low-density populations, predators regulate their prey and that the population will not escape unless predation pressure is eased. We evaluated survival of adult and juvenile moose (Alces alces) in north-central Alaska to determine whether or not the population supported the hypothesis. We instrumented adult male and female moose with radiocollars and used aerial observations to track parturition and subsequent survival of juvenile moose. Generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to assess survival. Adult annual survival rates were high (∼89%), but may be negatively influenced by winter conditions. Migratory status did not affect moose survivorship or productivity. Approximately 60% of the calf crop died before 5 months of age. Productivity was significantly lower in the northern section of the study area where there is less high-quality habitat, suggesting that, even in this low-density population, nutrition could be a limiting factor. It appears that predation on young calves, winter weather, and nutritional constraints may be interacting to limit this population. Latent traits, such as overproduction of calves and migratory behavior, which do not currently enhance fitness, may persist within this population so that individuals with these traits can reap benefits when environmental conditions change.

Regional patterns of declining butternut (Juglans cinerea L.) suggest site characteristics for restoration

Treesearch

Randall S. Morin; Kurt W. Gottschalk; Michael E. Ostry; Andrew M. Liebhold

2018-01-01

Butternut trees dying from a canker disease were first reported in southwestern Wisconsin in 1967. Since then, the disease has caused extensive mortality of butternut throughout its North American range. The objectives of this study were to quantify changes in butternut populations and density across its range and identify habitat characteristics of sites where...

Heterogeneous occupancy and density estimates of the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in waters of North America

Treesearch

Tara Chestnut; Chauncey Anderson; Radu Popa; Andrew R. Blaustein; Mary Voytek; Deanna H. Olson; Julie Kirshtein

2014-01-01

Biodiversity losses are occurring worldwide due to a combination of stressors. For example, by one estimate, 40% of amphibian species are vulnerable to extinction, and disease is one threat to amphibian populations. The emerging infectious disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the aquatic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is a contributor to amphibian declines...

Coyote removal, understory cover, and survival of white-tailed deer neonates

Treesearch

John C. Kilgo; Mark Vukovich; H. Scott Ray; Christopher E. Shaw; Charles Ruth

2014-01-01

Predation by coyotes (Canis latrans) on white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) neonates has led to reduced recruitment in many deer populations in southeastern North America. This low recruitment combined with liberal antlerless deer harvest has resulted in declines in some deer populations, and consequently, increased interest in coyote population control. We...

Excited level populations and excitation kinetics of nonequilibrium ionizing argon discharge plasma of atmospheric pressure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Akatsuka, Hiroshi

2009-04-15

Population densities of excited states of argon atoms are theoretically examined for ionizing argon plasma in a state of nonequilibrium under atmospheric pressure from the viewpoint of elementary processes with collisional radiative model. The dependence of excited state populations on the electron and gas temperatures is discussed. Two electron density regimes are found, which are distinguished by the population and depopulation mechanisms for the excited states in problem. When the electron impact excitation frequency for the population or depopulation is lower than the atomic impact one, the electron density of the plasma is considered as low to estimate the populationmore » and depopulation processes. Some remarkable characteristics of population and depopulation mechanisms are found for the low electron density atmospheric plasma, where thermal relaxation by atomic collisions becomes the predominant process within the group of close-energy states in the ionizing plasma of atmospheric pressure, and the excitation temperature is almost the same as the gas temperature. In addition to the collisional relaxation by argon atoms, electron impact excitation from the ground state is also an essential population mechanism. The ratios of population density of the levels pairs, between which exists a large energy gap, include information on the electron collisional kinetics. For high electron density, the effect of atomic collisional relaxation becomes weak. For this case, the excitation mechanism is explained as electron impact ladderlike excitation similar to low-pressure ionizing plasma, since the electron collision becomes the dominant process for the population and depopulation kinetics.« less

Climate, CO2, and demographic impacts on global wildfire emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

2015-09-01

Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation. Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation - wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations comprise Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models using two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), sensitivity tests for the effect of climate and CO2, as well as a sensitivity analysis using two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and fast urbanisation, or continue to decline for high population growth and slow urbanisation. Only for high future climate change (RCP8.5), wildfire emissions start to rise again after ca. 2020 but are unlikely to reach the levels of 1900 by the end of the 21st century. We find that climate warming will generally increase the risk of fire, but that this is only one of several equally important factors driving future levels of wildfire emissions, which include population change, CO2 fertilisation causing woody thickening, increased productivity and fuel load, and faster litter turnover in a warmer climate.

What does the fox say? Monitoring antimicrobial resistance in the environment using wild red foxes as an indicator.

PubMed

Mo, Solveig Sølverød; Urdahl, Anne Margrete; Madslien, Knut; Sunde, Marianne; Nesse, Live L; Slettemeås, Jannice Schau; Norström, Madelaine

2018-01-01

The objective of this study was to estimate and compare the occurrence of AMR in wild red foxes in relation to human population densities. Samples from wild red foxes (n = 528) included in the Norwegian monitoring programme on antimicrobial resistance in bacteria from food, feed and animals were included. All samples were divided into three different groups based on population density in the municipality where the foxes were hunted. Of the 528 samples included, 108 (20.5%), 328 (62.1%) and 92 (17.4%) originated from areas with low, medium and high population density, respectively. A single faecal swab was collected from each fox. All samples were plated out on a selective medium for Enterobacteriaceae for culturing followed by inclusion and susceptibility testing of one randomly selected Escherichia coli to assess the overall occurrence of AMR in the Gram-negative bacterial population. Furthermore, the samples were subjected to selective screening for detection of E. coli displaying resistance towards extended-spectrum cephalosporins and fluoroquinolones. In addition, a subset of samples (n = 387) were subjected to selective culturing to detect E. coli resistant to carbapenems and colistin, and enterococci resistant to vancomycin. Of these, 98 (25.3%), 200 (51.7%) and 89 (23.0%) originated from areas with low, medium and high population density, respectively. Overall, the occurrence of AMR in indicator E. coli from wild red foxes originating from areas with different human population densities in Norway was low to moderate (8.8%). The total occurrence of AMR was significantly higher; χ2 (1,N = 336) = 6.53, p = 0.01 in areas with high population density compared to areas with medium population density. Similarly, the occurrence of fluoroquinolone resistant E. coli isolated using selective detection methods was low in areas with low population density and more common in areas with medium or high population density. In conclusion, we found indications that occurrence of AMR in wild red foxes in Norway is associated with human population density. Foxes living in urban areas are more likely to be exposed to AMR bacteria and resistance drivers from food waste, garbage, sewage, waste water and consumption of contaminated prey compared to foxes living in remote areas. The homerange of red fox has been shown to be limited thereby the red fox constitutes a good sentinel for monitoring antimicrobial resistance in the environment. Continuous monitoring on the occurrence of AMR in different wild species, ecological niches and geographical areas can facilitate an increased understanding of the environmental burden of AMR in the environment. Such information is needed to further assess the impact for humans, and enables implementation of possible control measures for AMR in humans, animals and the environment in a true "One Health" approach.

Density estimates of monarch butterflies overwintering in central Mexico

PubMed Central

Diffendorfer, Jay E.; López-Hoffman, Laura; Oberhauser, Karen; Pleasants, John; Semmens, Brice X.; Semmens, Darius; Taylor, Orley R.; Wiederholt, Ruscena

2017-01-01

Given the rapid population decline and recent petition for listing of the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus L.) under the Endangered Species Act, an accurate estimate of the Eastern, migratory population size is needed. Because of difficulty in counting individual monarchs, the number of hectares occupied by monarchs in the overwintering area is commonly used as a proxy for population size, which is then multiplied by the density of individuals per hectare to estimate population size. There is, however, considerable variation in published estimates of overwintering density, ranging from 6.9–60.9 million ha−1. We develop a probability distribution for overwinter density of monarch butterflies from six published density estimates. The mean density among the mixture of the six published estimates was ∼27.9 million butterflies ha−1 (95% CI [2.4–80.7] million ha−1); the mixture distribution is approximately log-normal, and as such is better represented by the median (21.1 million butterflies ha−1). Based upon assumptions regarding the number of milkweed needed to support monarchs, the amount of milkweed (Asclepias spp.) lost (0.86 billion stems) in the northern US plus the amount of milkweed remaining (1.34 billion stems), we estimate >1.8 billion stems is needed to return monarchs to an average population size of 6 ha. Considerable uncertainty exists in this required amount of milkweed because of the considerable uncertainty occurring in overwinter density estimates. Nevertheless, the estimate is on the same order as other published estimates. The studies included in our synthesis differ substantially by year, location, method, and measures of precision. A better understanding of the factors influencing overwintering density across space and time would be valuable for increasing the precision of conservation recommendations. PMID:28462031

Density estimates of monarch butterflies overwintering in central Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura; Oberhauser, Karen; Pleasants, John M.; Semmens, Brice X.; Semmens, Darius J.; Taylor, Orley R.; Wiederholt, Ruscena

2017-01-01

Given the rapid population decline and recent petition for listing of the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus L.) under the Endangered Species Act, an accurate estimate of the Eastern, migratory population size is needed. Because of difficulty in counting individual monarchs, the number of hectares occupied by monarchs in the overwintering area is commonly used as a proxy for population size, which is then multiplied by the density of individuals per hectare to estimate population size. There is, however, considerable variation in published estimates of overwintering density, ranging from 6.9–60.9 million ha−1. We develop a probability distribution for overwinter density of monarch butterflies from six published density estimates. The mean density among the mixture of the six published estimates was ∼27.9 million butterflies ha−1 (95% CI [2.4–80.7] million ha−1); the mixture distribution is approximately log-normal, and as such is better represented by the median (21.1 million butterflies ha−1). Based upon assumptions regarding the number of milkweed needed to support monarchs, the amount of milkweed (Asclepias spp.) lost (0.86 billion stems) in the northern US plus the amount of milkweed remaining (1.34 billion stems), we estimate >1.8 billion stems is needed to return monarchs to an average population size of 6 ha. Considerable uncertainty exists in this required amount of milkweed because of the considerable uncertainty occurring in overwinter density estimates. Nevertheless, the estimate is on the same order as other published estimates. The studies included in our synthesis differ substantially by year, location, method, and measures of precision. A better understanding of the factors influencing overwintering density across space and time would be valuable for increasing the precision of conservation recommendations.

Effects of urbanization on benthic macroinvertebrate communities in streams, Anchorage, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ourso, Robert T.

2001-01-01

The effect of urbanization on stream macroinvertebrate communities was examined by using data gathered during a 1999 reconnaissance of 14 sites in the Municipality of Anchorage, Alaska. Data collected included macroinvertebrate abundance, water chemistry, and trace elements in bed sediments. Macroinvertebrate relative-abundance data were edited and used in metric and index calculations. Population density was used as a surrogate for urbanization. Cluster analysis (unweighted-paired-grouping method) using arithmetic means of macroinvertebrate presence-absence data showed a well-defined separation between urbanized and nonurbanized sites as well as extracted sites that did not cleanly fall into either category. Water quality in Anchorage generally declined with increasing urbanization (population density). Of 59 variables examined, 31 correlated with urbanization. Local regression analysis extracted 11 variables that showed a significant impairment threshold response and 6 that showed a significant linear response. Significant biological variables for determining the impairment threshold in this study were the Margalef diversity index, Ephemeroptera-Plecoptera-Trichoptera taxa richness, and total taxa richness. Significant thresholds were observed in the water-chemistry variables conductivity, dissolved organic carbon, potassium, and total dissolved solids. Significant thresholds in trace elements in bed sediments included arsenic, iron, manganese, and lead. Results suggest that sites in Anchorage that have ratios of population density to road density greater than 70, storm-drain densities greater than 0.45 miles per square mile, road densities greater than 4 miles per square mile, or population densities greater than 125-150 persons per square mile may require further monitoring to determine if the stream has become impaired. This population density is far less than the 1,000 persons per square mile used by the U.S. Census Bureau to define an urban area.

Systematic temporal patterns in the relationship between housing development and forest bird biodiversity.

PubMed

Pidgeon, Anna M; Flather, Curtis H; Radeloff, Volker C; Lepczyk, Christopher A; Keuler, Nicholas S; Wood, Eric M; Stewart, Susan I; Hammer, Roger B

2014-10-01

As people encroach increasingly on natural areas, one question is how this affects avian biodiversity. The answer to this is partly scale-dependent. At broad scales, human populations and biodiversity concentrate in the same areas and are positively associated, but at local scales people and biodiversity are negatively associated with biodiversity. We investigated whether there is also a systematic temporal trend in the relationship between bird biodiversity and housing development. We used linear regression to examine associations between forest bird species richness and housing growth in the conterminous United States over 30 years. Our data sources were the North American Breeding Bird Survey and the 2000 decennial U.S. Census. In the 9 largest forested ecoregions, housing density increased continually over time. Across the conterminous United States, the association between bird species richness and housing density was positive for virtually all guilds except ground nesting birds. We found a systematic trajectory of declining bird species richness as housing increased through time. In more recently developed ecoregions, where housing density was still low, the association with bird species richness was neutral or positive. In ecoregions that were developed earlier and where housing density was highest, the association of housing density with bird species richness for most guilds was negative and grew stronger with advancing decades. We propose that in general the relationship between human settlement and biodiversity over time unfolds as a 2-phase process. The first phase is apparently innocuous; associations are positive due to coincidence of low-density housing with high biodiversity. The second phase is highly detrimental to biodiversity, and increases in housing density are associated with biodiversity losses. The long-term effect on biodiversity depends on the final housing density. This general pattern can help unify our understanding of the relationship of human encroachment and biodiversity response. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Trends in cardiovascular disease biomarkers and their socioeconomic patterning among adults in the Scottish population 1995 to 2009: cross-sectional surveys

PubMed Central

Davies, Carolyn Anne; Gray, Linsay; Bromley, Catherine; Capewell, Simon; Leyland, Alastair

2012-01-01

Objectives To examine secular and socioeconomic changes in biological cardiovascular disease risk factor and biomarker prevalences in the Scottish population. This could contribute to an understanding of why the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in Scotland has recently stalled along with persistence of associated socioeconomic inequalities. Design Cross-sectional surveys. Setting Scotland. Participants Scottish Health Surveys: 1995, 1998, 2003, 2008 and 2009 (6190, 6656, 5497, 4202 and 4964 respondents, respectively, aged 25–64 years). Primary outcome measures Gender-stratified, age-standardised prevalences of obesity, hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol blood concentration as well as elevated fibrinogen and C reactive protein concentrations according to education and social class groupings. Inequalities were assessed using the slope index of inequality, and time trends were assessed using linear regression. Results The prevalence of obesity, including central obesity, increased between 1995 and 2009 among men and women, irrespective of socioeconomic position. In 2009, the prevalence of obesity (defined by body mass index) was 29.8% (95% CI 27.9% to 31.7%) for men and 28.2% (26.3% to 30.2%) for women. The proportion of individuals with hypertension remained relatively unchanged between 1995 and 2008/2009, while the prevalence of hypercholesterolaemia declined in men from 79.6% (78.1% to 81.1%) to 63.8% (59.9% to 67.8%) and in women from 74.1% (72.6% to 75.7%) to 66.3% (62.6% to 70.0%). Socioeconomic inequalities persisted over time among men and women for most of the biomarkers and were particularly striking for the anthropometric measures when stratified by education. Conclusions If there are to be further declines in coronary heart disease mortality and reduction in associated inequalities, then there needs to be a favourable step change in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk factors. This may require radical population-wide interventions. PMID:22619264

The Importance of Non-Native Prey, the Zebra Mussel Dreissena polymorpha, for the Declining Greater Scaup Aythya marila: A Case Study at a Key European Staging and Wintering Site.

PubMed

Marchowski, Dominik; Neubauer, Grzegorz; Ławicki, Łukasz; Woźniczka, Adam; Wysocki, Dariusz; Guentzel, Sebastian; Jarzemski, Maciej

2015-01-01

The European population of Greater Scaup Aythya marila has experienced an alarming, ~60% decline in numbers over the last two decades. The brackish lagoons of the Odra River Estuary (ORE) in the south-western Baltic Sea, represent an important area for the species during the non-breeding season in Europe. The lagoons regularly support over 20 000 Scaup, with peaks exceeding 100 000 (38%-70% of the population wintering in NW Europe and the highest number recorded in April 2011-105 700). In the ORE, Scaup feed almost exclusively on the non-native Zebra Mussel Dreissena polymorpha. This mussel was present in the ORE already in the 19th century and continues to be superabundant. Using the results of 22 Scaup censuses (November to April 2002/2003 to 2013/2014) from the whole ORE (523 km2 of water), we show that Scaup flocks follow areas with the greatest area of occurrence and biomass of the Zebra Mussel, while areas with low mussel densities are ignored. The numbers of Scaup in the ORE are primarily related to the area of Zebra Mussel occurrence on the lagoon's bottom (km2) in a non-linear fashion. Zebra Mussels were absolutely prevalent (97% of biomass) in the digestive tracts of birds unintentionally by-caught in fishing nets (n = 32). We estimate that Scaup alone consume an average of 5 400 tons of Zebra Mussels annually, which represents 5.6% of the total resources of the mussel in the ORE. Our results provide a clear picture of the strong dependence of the declining, migratory duck species on the non-native mussel, its primary food in the ORE. Our findings are particularly important as they can form the basis for the conservation action plan aimed at saving the north-western European populations of Scaup.

The Importance of Non-Native Prey, the Zebra Mussel Dreissena polymorpha, for the Declining Greater Scaup Aythya marila: A Case Study at a Key European Staging and Wintering Site

PubMed Central

Marchowski, Dominik; Neubauer, Grzegorz; Ławicki, Łukasz; Woźniczka, Adam; Wysocki, Dariusz; Guentzel, Sebastian; Jarzemski, Maciej

2015-01-01

The European population of Greater Scaup Aythya marila has experienced an alarming, ~60% decline in numbers over the last two decades. The brackish lagoons of the Odra River Estuary (ORE) in the south-western Baltic Sea, represent an important area for the species during the non-breeding season in Europe. The lagoons regularly support over 20 000 Scaup, with peaks exceeding 100 000 (38%–70% of the population wintering in NW Europe and the highest number recorded in April 2011–105 700). In the ORE, Scaup feed almost exclusively on the non-native Zebra Mussel Dreissena polymorpha. This mussel was present in the ORE already in the 19th century and continues to be superabundant. Using the results of 22 Scaup censuses (November to April 2002/2003 to 2013/2014) from the whole ORE (523 km2 of water), we show that Scaup flocks follow areas with the greatest area of occurrence and biomass of the Zebra Mussel, while areas with low mussel densities are ignored. The numbers of Scaup in the ORE are primarily related to the area of Zebra Mussel occurrence on the lagoon’s bottom (km2) in a non-linear fashion. Zebra Mussels were absolutely prevalent (97% of biomass) in the digestive tracts of birds unintentionally by-caught in fishing nets (n = 32). We estimate that Scaup alone consume an average of 5 400 tons of Zebra Mussels annually, which represents 5.6% of the total resources of the mussel in the ORE. Our results provide a clear picture of the strong dependence of the declining, migratory duck species on the non-native mussel, its primary food in the ORE. Our findings are particularly important as they can form the basis for the conservation action plan aimed at saving the north-western European populations of Scaup. PMID:26709707

The Critically Endangered western chimpanzee declines by 80.

PubMed

Kühl, Hjalmar S; Sop, Tenekwetche; Williamson, Elizabeth A; Mundry, Roger; Brugière, David; Campbell, Genevieve; Cohen, Heather; Danquah, Emmanuel; Ginn, Laura; Herbinger, Ilka; Jones, Sorrel; Junker, Jessica; Kormos, Rebecca; Kouakou, Celestin Y; N'Goran, Paul K; Normand, Emma; Shutt-Phillips, Kathryn; Tickle, Alexander; Vendras, Elleni; Welsh, Adam; Wessling, Erin G; Boesch, Christophe

2017-09-01

African large mammals are under extreme pressure from unsustainable hunting and habitat loss. Certain traits make large mammals particularly vulnerable. These include late age at first reproduction, long inter-birth intervals, and low population density. Great apes are a prime example of such vulnerability, exhibiting all of these traits. Here we assess the rate of population change for the western chimpanzee, Pan troglodytes verus, over a 24-year period. As a proxy for change in abundance, we used transect nest count data from 20 different sites archived in the IUCN SSC A.P.E.S. database, representing 25,000 of the estimated remaining 35,000 western chimpanzees. For each of the 20 sites, datasets for 2 different years were available. We estimated site-specific and global population change using Generalized Linear Models. At 12 of these sites, we detected a significant negative trend. The estimated change in the subspecies abundance, as approximated by nest encounter rate, yielded a 6% annual decline and a total decline of 80.2% over the study period from 1990 to 2014. This also resulted in a reduced geographic range of 20% (657,600 vs. 524,100 km 2 ). Poverty, civil conflict, disease pandemics, agriculture, extractive industries, infrastructure development, and lack of law enforcement, are some of the many reasons for the magnitude of threat. Our status update triggered the uplisting of the western chimpanzee to "Critically Endangered" on the IUCN Red List. In 2017, IUCN will start updating the 2003 Action Plan for western chimpanzees and will provide a consensus blueprint for what is needed to save this subspecies. We make a plea for greater commitment to conservation in West Africa across sectors. Needed especially is more robust engagement by national governments, integration of conservation priorities into the private sector and development planning across the region and sustained financial support from donors. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Rural Earnings Holding Steady in the Early 1990s.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Swaim, Paul

1995-01-01

Current Population Survey data indicate an overall decline in the rural-urban pay gap during the early 1990s (due to declining urban wages, not rising rural wages). In 1993, the earnings of 30 percent of rural full-time workers were below the poverty level. Compares low-income workers by gender, age group, education, and race/ethnicity. (LP)

Conservation reserve program: benefit for grassland birds in the northern plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, R.E.; Shaffer, T.L.; Sauer, J.R.; Peterjohn, B.G.

1994-01-01

During the past few decades numbers of some species of upland-nesting birds in North America have declined. Duck species such as mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), northern pintail (A. acuta) and blue-winged teal (A. discors) have declined since the early 1970s and have remained low since 1985 (Caithamer et al. 1993). Some grassland-dependent nonwaterfowl species also have declined since 1966, as indicated by the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) (Robbins et al. 1986). For prairie-nesting ducks, population declines can be attributed mostly to low recruitment, partially as a result of low nest success. Klett et al. (1988) concluded that nest success (probability of ≥1 egg of clutch hatches) in much of the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region was inadequate to maintain populations of the five most common upland-nesting duck species studied, and that predators were the most important cause of nest failure. Over the years, as grassland areas have been converted to cropland, ducks have concentrated their nesting in the remaining areas of available habitat, where predators such as red fox (Vulpes vulpes), striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis) and badger (Taxidea taxus) forage (Cowardin et al. 1983). The reasons for declining populations of grassland nonwaterfowl birds are not clear but the loss of suitable grassland-nesting habitat probably is an important factor. Currently, approximately 95 percent of the land in North Dakota is used for agricultural purposes, of which over 60 percent is used for annual crop production (Haugse 1990). Of the grassland that remains, 95 percent is used for livestock production. This probably had a severe impact on grassland bird species that seek idle grass cover for nesting. The 1985 and 1990 U.S. Farm Bills include provisions under the Food Security Act to fund a cropland-idling program called the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). Over 36 million acres have been enrolled nationwide in the CRP since 1985 (Osborn 1993), and up to 25 percent of cropland in some counties has been converted primarily to grass. In North Dakota, nearly 3 million acres have been enrolled. Over 90 percent of the CRP plantings in North Dakota are grass and grass-legume mix composed primarily of wheatgrass (Agropyron spp.), smooth brome (Bromus inermis), alfalfa (Medicago saliva) and sweetclover (Melilotus spp.). Mixes of these species have been reported to attract high densities of nesting ducks (Duebbert and Kantrud 1974). According to the CRP provisions, the land must remain idle for the 10-year contract period, with the exception of emergency provisions for haying or grazing. CRP appears to have great potential for benefiting many species of grassland-nesting birds. There have been efforts to document the importance of the CRP to migratory birds in the Upper Great Plains of the U.S. Kantrud (1993) studied duck nest success in CRP cover and concluded that nest success was higher than in planted cover on U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) Waterfowl Production Areas (WPAs). Johnson and Schwartz (1993a) measured the use of CRP fields by nonwaterfowl birds and reported that several species have responded positively by colonizing CRP fields. They concluded that CRP has the potential to help reverse the population declines of several species. We investigated the importance of CRP to upland-nesting ducks and certain other grassland-nesting birds. For ducks, we compared nest success in CRP cover with nest success in planted cover on WPAs in the same period (1992-93) and with that of an earlier period (1980-84). For nonwaterfowl, we used BBS data to compare the trends in populations of certain species found in CRP, for the periods 1966-86 (pre-CRP cover establishment) and 1987-92 (post-CRP cover establishment) in North Dakota.

Linking vital rates to invasiveness of a perennial herb.

PubMed

Ramula, Satu

2014-04-01

Invaders generally show better individual performance than non-invaders and, therefore, vital rates (survival, growth, fecundity) could potentially be used to predict species invasiveness outside their native range. Comparative studies have usually correlated vital rates with the invasiveness status of species, while few studies have investigated them in relation to population growth rate. Here, I examined the influence of five vital rates (plant establishment, survival, growth, flowering probability, seed production) and their variability (across geographic regions, habitat types, population sizes and population densities) on population growth rate (λ) using data from 37 populations of an invasive, iteroparous herb (Lupinus polyphyllus) in a part of its invaded range in Finland. Variation in vital rates was often related to habitat type and population density. The performance of the populations varied from declining to rapidly increasing independently of habitat type, population size or population density, but differed between regions. The population growth rate increased linearly with plant establishment, and with the survival and growth of vegetative individuals, while the survival of flowering individuals and annual seed production were not related to λ. The vital rates responsible for rapid population growth varied among populations. These findings highlight the importance of both regional and local conditions to plant population dynamics, demonstrating that individual vital rates do not necessarily correlate with λ. Therefore, to understand the role of individual vital rates in a species ability to invade, it is necessary to quantify their effect on population growth rate.

Predators, Prey and Habitat Structure: Can Key Conservation Areas and Early Signs of Population Collapse Be Detected in Neotropical Forests?

PubMed

de Thoisy, Benoit; Fayad, Ibrahim; Clément, Luc; Barrioz, Sébastien; Poirier, Eddy; Gond, Valéry

2016-01-01

Tropical forests with a low human population and absence of large-scale deforestation provide unique opportunities to study successful conservation strategies, which should be based on adequate monitoring tools. This study explored the conservation status of a large predator, the jaguar, considered an indicator of the maintenance of how well ecological processes are maintained. We implemented an original integrative approach, exploring successive ecosystem status proxies, from habitats and responses to threats of predators and their prey, to canopy structure and forest biomass. Niche modeling allowed identification of more suitable habitats, significantly related to canopy height and forest biomass. Capture/recapture methods showed that jaguar density was higher in habitats identified as more suitable by the niche model. Surveys of ungulates, large rodents and birds also showed higher density where jaguars were more abundant. Although jaguar density does not allow early detection of overall vertebrate community collapse, a decrease in the abundance of large terrestrial birds was noted as good first evidence of disturbance. The most promising tool comes from easily acquired LiDAR data and radar images: a decrease in canopy roughness was closely associated with the disturbance of forests and associated decreasing vertebrate biomass. This mixed approach, focusing on an apex predator, ecological modeling and remote-sensing information, not only helps detect early population declines in large mammals, but is also useful to discuss the relevance of large predators as indicators and the efficiency of conservation measures. It can also be easily extrapolated and adapted in a timely manner, since important open-source data are increasingly available and relevant for large-scale and real-time monitoring of biodiversity.

Predators, Prey and Habitat Structure: Can Key Conservation Areas and Early Signs of Population Collapse Be Detected in Neotropical Forests?

PubMed Central

de Thoisy, Benoit; Fayad, Ibrahim; Clément, Luc; Barrioz, Sébastien; Poirier, Eddy; Gond, Valéry

2016-01-01

Tropical forests with a low human population and absence of large-scale deforestation provide unique opportunities to study successful conservation strategies, which should be based on adequate monitoring tools. This study explored the conservation status of a large predator, the jaguar, considered an indicator of the maintenance of how well ecological processes are maintained. We implemented an original integrative approach, exploring successive ecosystem status proxies, from habitats and responses to threats of predators and their prey, to canopy structure and forest biomass. Niche modeling allowed identification of more suitable habitats, significantly related to canopy height and forest biomass. Capture/recapture methods showed that jaguar density was higher in habitats identified as more suitable by the niche model. Surveys of ungulates, large rodents and birds also showed higher density where jaguars were more abundant. Although jaguar density does not allow early detection of overall vertebrate community collapse, a decrease in the abundance of large terrestrial birds was noted as good first evidence of disturbance. The most promising tool comes from easily acquired LiDAR data and radar images: a decrease in canopy roughness was closely associated with the disturbance of forests and associated decreasing vertebrate biomass. This mixed approach, focusing on an apex predator, ecological modeling and remote-sensing information, not only helps detect early population declines in large mammals, but is also useful to discuss the relevance of large predators as indicators and the efficiency of conservation measures. It can also be easily extrapolated and adapted in a timely manner, since important open-source data are increasingly available and relevant for large-scale and real-time monitoring of biodiversity. PMID:27828993

Sampling low-density gypsy moth populations

Treesearch

William E. Wallner; Clive G. Jones; Joseph S. Elkinton; Bruce L. Parker

1991-01-01

The techniques and methodology for sampling gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar L., at low densities, less than 100 egg masses/ha (EM/ha), are compared. Forest managers have constraints of time and cost, and need a useful, simple predictable means to assist them in sampling gypsy moth populations. A comparison of various techniques coupled with results of...

Environmental Change and Out-Migration: Evidence from Nepal

PubMed Central

Massey, Douglas S.; Axinn, William G.; Ghimire, Dirgha J.

2011-01-01

Scholars and activists have hypothesized a connection between environmental change and out-migration. In this paper we test this hypothesis using data from Nepal. We operationalize environmental change in terms of declining land cover, rising times required to gather organic inputs, increasing population density, and perceived declines in agricultural productivity. In general, environmental change is more strongly related to short- than long-distance moves. Holding constant the effects of other social and economic variables, we find that local moves are predicted by perceived declines in productivity, declining land cover, and increasing time required to gather firewood. Long-distance moves are predicted by perceived declines in productivity, but the effect is weaker than in the model of short-distance mobility. We also show that effects of environmental change vary by gender and ethnicity, with women being more affected by changes in the time required to gather fodder and men by changes in the time to gather firewood, and high caste Hindus generally being less affect than others by environmental change. PMID:21350676

Secular trends in ischemic stroke subtypes and stroke risk factors.

PubMed

Bogiatzi, Chrysi; Hackam, Daniel G; McLeod, A Ian; Spence, J David

2014-11-01

Early diagnosis and treatment of a stroke improves patient outcomes, and knowledge of the cause of the initial event is crucial to identification of the appropriate therapy to maximally reduce risk of recurrence. Assumptions based on historical frequency of ischemic subtypes may need revision if stroke subtypes are changing as a result of recent changes in therapy, such as increased use of statins. We analyzed secular trends in stroke risk factors and ischemic stroke subtypes among patients with transient ischemic attack or minor or moderate stroke referred to an urgent transient ischemic attack clinic from 2002 to 2012. There was a significant decline in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and blood pressure, associated with a significant decline in large artery stroke and small vessel stroke. The proportion of cardioembolic stroke increased from 26% in 2002 to 56% in 2012 (P<0.05 for trend). Trends remained significant after adjusting for population change. With more intensive medical management in the community, a significant decrease in atherosclerotic risk factors was observed, with a significant decline in stroke/transient ischemic attack caused by large artery atherosclerosis and small vessel disease. As a result, cardioembolic stroke/transient ischemic attack has increased significantly. Our findings suggest that more intensive investigation for cardiac sources of embolism and greater use of anticoagulation may be warranted. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Breeding population density and habitat use of Swainson's warblers in a Georgia floodplain forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wright, E.A.

2002-01-01

I examined density and habitat use of a Swainson's Warbler (Limnothlypis swainsonii) breeding population in Georgia. This songbird species is inadequately monitored, and may be declining due to anthropogenic alteration of floodplain forest breeding habitats. I used distance sampling methods to estimate density, finding 9.4 singing males/ha (CV = 0.298). Individuals were encountered too infrequently to produce a Iow-variance estimate, and distance sampling thus may be impracticable for monitoring this relatively rare species. I developed a set of multivariate habitat models using binary logistic regression techniques, based on measurement of 22 variables in 56 plots occupied by Swainson's Warblers and 110 unoccupied plots. Occupied areas were characterized by high stem density of cane (Arundinaria gigantea) and other shrub layer vegetation, and presence of abundant and accessible leaf litter. I recommend two habitat models, which correctly classified 87-89% of plots in cross-validation runs, for potential use in habitat assessment at other locations.

Experimental evolution reveals differences between phenotypic and evolutionary responses to population density.

PubMed

McNamara, K B; Simmons, L W

2017-09-01

Group living can select for increased immunity, given the heightened risk of parasite transmission. Yet, it also may select for increased male reproductive investment, given the elevated risk of female multiple mating. Trade-offs between immunity and reproduction are well documented. Phenotypically, population density mediates both reproductive investment and immune function in the Indian meal moth, Plodia interpunctella. However, the evolutionary response of populations to these traits is unknown. We created two replicated populations of P. interpunctella, reared and mated for 14 generations under high or low population densities. These population densities cause plastic responses in immunity and reproduction: at higher numbers, both sexes invest more in one index of immunity [phenoloxidase (PO) activity] and males invest more in sperm. Interestingly, our data revealed divergence in PO and reproduction in a different direction to previously reported phenotypic responses. Males evolving at low population densities transferred more sperm, and both males and females displayed higher PO than individuals at high population densities. These positively correlated responses to selection suggest no apparent evolutionary trade-off between immunity and reproduction. We speculate that the reduced PO activity and sperm investment when evolving under high population density may be due to the reduced population fitness predicted under increased sexual conflict and/or to trade-offs between pre- and post-copulatory traits. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Trends and drivers of marine debris on the Atlantic coast of the United States 1997-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ribic, C.A.; Sheavly, S.B.; Rugg, D.J.; Erdmann, Eric S.

2010-01-01

For the first time, we documented regional differences in amounts and long-term trends of marine debris along the US Atlantic coast. The Southeast Atlantic had low land-based and general-source debris loads as well as no increases despite a 19% increase in coastal population. The Northeast (8% population increase) also had low land-based and general-source debris loads and no increases. The Mid-Atlantic (10% population increase) fared the worst, with heavy land-based and general-source debris loads that increased over time. Ocean-based debris did not change in the Northeast where the fishery is relatively stable; it declined over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast and was correlated with declining regional fisheries. Drivers, including human population, land use status, fishing activity, and oceanic current systems, had complex relationships with debris loads at local and regional scales. Management challenges remain undeniably large but solid information from long-term programs is one key to addressing this pressing pollution issue. ?? 2010.

Trends and drivers of marine debris on the Atlantic coast of the United States 1997-2007.

PubMed

Ribic, Christine A; Sheavly, Seba B; Rugg, David J; Erdmann, Eric S

2010-08-01

For the first time, we documented regional differences in amounts and long-term trends of marine debris along the US Atlantic coast. The Southeast Atlantic had low land-based and general-source debris loads as well as no increases despite a 19% increase in coastal population. The Northeast (8% population increase) also had low land-based and general-source debris loads and no increases. The Mid-Atlantic (10% population increase) fared the worst, with heavy land-based and general-source debris loads that increased over time. Ocean-based debris did not change in the Northeast where the fishery is relatively stable; it declined over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast and was correlated with declining regional fisheries. Drivers, including human population, land use status, fishing activity, and oceanic current systems, had complex relationships with debris loads at local and regional scales. Management challenges remain undeniably large but solid information from long-term programs is one key to addressing this pressing pollution issue. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Estimating the influence of population density and dispersal behavior on the ability to detect and monitor Agrilus planipennis (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) populations.

PubMed

Mercader, R J; Siegert, N W; McCullough, D G

2012-02-01

Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), a phloem-feeding pest of ash (Fraxinus spp.) trees native to Asia, was first discovered in North America in 2002. Since then, A. planipennis has been found in 15 states and two Canadian provinces and has killed tens of millions of ash trees. Understanding the probability of detecting and accurately delineating low density populations of A. planipennis is a key component of effective management strategies. Here we approach this issue by 1) quantifying the efficiency of sampling nongirdled ash trees to detect new infestations of A. planipennis under varying population densities and 2) evaluating the likelihood of accurately determining the localized spread of discrete A. planipennis infestations. To estimate the probability a sampled tree would be detected as infested across a gradient of A. planipennis densities, we used A. planipennis larval density estimates collected during intensive surveys conducted in three recently infested sites with known origins. Results indicated the probability of detecting low density populations by sampling nongirdled trees was very low, even when detection tools were assumed to have three-fold higher detection probabilities than nongirdled trees. Using these results and an A. planipennis spread model, we explored the expected accuracy with which the spatial extent of an A. planipennis population could be determined. Model simulations indicated a poor ability to delineate the extent of the distribution of localized A. planipennis populations, particularly when a small proportion of the population was assumed to have a higher propensity for dispersal.

Declining Rotation Curves at z = 2 in ΛCDM Galaxy Formation Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teklu, Adelheid F.; Remus, Rhea-Silvia; Dolag, Klaus; Arth, Alexander; Burkert, Andreas; Obreja, Aura; Schulze, Felix

2018-02-01

Selecting disk galaxies from the cosmological, hydrodynamical simulation Magneticum Pathfinder, we show that almost half of our poster child disk galaxies at z = 2 show significantly declining rotation curves and low dark matter fractions, very similar to recently reported observations. These galaxies do not show any anomalous behavior, they reside in standard dark matter halos, and they typically grow significantly in mass until z = 0, where they span all morphological classes, including disk galaxies matching present-day rotation curves and observed dark matter fractions. Our findings demonstrate that declining rotation curves and low dark matter fractions in rotation-dominated galaxies at z = 2 appear naturally within the ΛCDM paradigm and reflect the complex baryonic physics, which plays a role at the peak epoch of star formation. In addition, we find some dispersion-dominated galaxies at z = 2 that host a significant gas disk and exhibit similar shaped rotation curves as the disk galaxy population, rendering it difficult to differentiate between these two populations with currently available observation techniques.

Recovery from bleaching is mediated by threshold densities of background thermo-tolerant symbiont types in a reef-building coral

PubMed Central

Bay, Line K.; Doyle, Jason; Logan, Murray; Berkelmans, Ray

2016-01-01

Sensitive molecular analyses show that most corals host a complement of Symbiodinium genotypes that includes thermo-tolerant types in low abundance. While tolerant symbiont types are hypothesized to facilitate tolerance to temperature and recovery from bleaching, empirical data on their distribution and relative abundance in corals under ambient and stress conditions are still rare. We quantified visual bleaching and mortality of coral hosts, along with relative abundance of C- and D-type Symbiodinium cells in 82 Acropora millepora colonies from three locations on the Great Barrier Reef transplanted to a central inshore site over a 13 month period. Our analyses reveal dynamic change in symbiont associations within colonies and among populations over time. Coral bleaching and declines in C- but not D-type symbionts were observed in transplanted corals. Survival and recovery of 25% of corals from one population was associated with either initial D-dominance or an increase in D-type symbionts that could be predicted by a minimum pre-stress D : C ratio of 0.003. One-third of corals from this population became D dominated at the bleached stage despite no initial detection of this symbiont type, but failed to recover and died in mid to late summer. These results provide a predictive threshold minimum density of background D-type symbionts in A. millepora, above which survival following extreme thermal stress is increased. PMID:27429786

Does climate change explain the decline of a trans-Saharan Afro-Palaearctic migrant?

PubMed

Pearce-Higgins, J W; Yalden, D W; Dougall, T W; Beale, C M

2009-03-01

There is an urgent need to understand how climate change will impact on demographic parameters of vulnerable species. Migrants are regarded as particularly vulnerable to climate change; phenological mismatch has resulted in the local decline of one passerine, whilst variations in the survival of others have been related to African weather conditions. However, there have been few demographic studies on trans-Saharan non-passerine migrants, despite these showing stronger declines across Europe than passerines. We therefore analyse the effects of climate on the survival and productivity of common sandpipers Actitis hypoleucos, a declining non-passerine long-distant migrant using 28 years' data from the Peak District, England. Adult survival rates were significantly negatively correlated with winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), being lower when winters were warm and wet in western Europe and cool and dry in northwest Africa. Annual variation in the productivity of the population was positively correlated with June temperature, but not with an index of phenological mismatch. The 59% population decline appears largely to have been driven by reductions in adult survival, with local productivity poorly correlated with subsequent population change, suggesting a low degree of natal philopatry. Winter NAO was not significantly correlated with adult survival rates in a second, Scottish Borders population, studied for 12 years. Variation in climatic conditions alone does not therefore appear to be responsible for common sandpiper declines. Unlike some passerine migrants, there was no evidence for climate-driven reductions in productivity, although the apparent importance of immigration in determining local recruitment complicates the assessment of productivity effects. We suggest that further studies to diagnose common sandpiper declines should focus on changes in the condition of migratory stop-over or wintering locations. Where possible, these analyses should be repeated for other declining migrants.

Can the source–sink hypothesis explain macrofaunal abundance patterns in the abyss? A modelling test

PubMed Central

Hardy, Sarah M.; Smith, Craig R.; Thurnherr, Andreas M.

2015-01-01

Low food availability is a major structuring force in deep-sea benthic communities, sustaining only very low densities of organisms in parts of the abyss. These low population densities may result in an Allee effect, whereby local reproductive success is inhibited, and populations are maintained by larval dispersal from bathyal slopes. This slope–abyss source–sink (SASS) hypothesis suggests that the abyssal seafloor constitutes a vast sink habitat with macrofaunal populations sustained only by an influx of larval ‘refugees' from source areas on continental slopes, where higher productivity sustains greater population densities. Abyssal macrofaunal population densities would thus be directly related to larval inputs from bathyal source populations. We evaluate three predictions derived from the SASS hypothesis: (i) slope-derived larvae can be passively transported to central abyssal regions within a single larval period, (ii) projected larval export from slopes to the abyss reproduces global patterns of macrofaunal abundance and (iii) macrofaunal abundance decreases with distance from the continental slope. We find that abyssal macrofaunal populations are unlikely to be sustained solely through influx of larvae from slope sources. Rather, local reproduction probably sustains macrofaunal populations in relatively high-productivity abyssal areas, which must also be considered as potential larval source areas for more food-poor abyssal regions. PMID:25948686

The influence of simulated exploitation on Patella vulgata populations: protandric sex change is size-dependent.

PubMed

Borges, Carla D G; Hawkins, Stephen J; Crowe, Tasman P; Doncaster, C Patrick

2016-01-01

Grazing mollusks are used as a food resource worldwide, and limpets are harvested commercially for both local consumption and export in several countries. This study describes a field experiment to assess the effects of simulated human exploitation of limpets Patella vulgata on their population ecology in terms of protandry (age-related sex change from male to female), growth, recruitment, migration, and density regulation. Limpet populations at two locations in southwest England were artificially exploited by systematic removal of the largest individuals for 18 months in plots assigned to three treatments at each site: no (control), low, and high exploitation. The shell size at sex change (L 50: the size at which there is a 50:50 sex ratio) decreased in response to the exploitation treatments, as did the mean shell size of sexual stages. Size-dependent sex change was indicated by L 50 occurring at smaller sizes in treatments than controls, suggesting an earlier switch to females. Mean shell size of P. vulgata neuters changed little under different levels of exploitation, while males and females both decreased markedly in size with exploitation. No differences were detected in the relative abundances of sexual stages, indicating some compensation for the removal of the bigger individuals via recruitment and sex change as no migratory patterns were detected between treatments. At the end of the experiment, 0-15 mm recruits were more abundant at one of the locations but no differences were detected between treatments. We conclude that sex change in P. vulgata can be induced at smaller sizes by reductions in density of the largest individuals reducing interage class competition. Knowledge of sex-change adaptation in exploited limpet populations should underpin strategies to counteract population decline and improve rocky shore conservation and resource management.

Current Characteristics and Trends of the Tracked Satellite Population in the Human Space Flight Regime

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Nicholas L.

2006-01-01

Since the end of the Apollo program in 1972, human space flight has been restricted to altitudes below 600 km above the Earth s surface with most missions restricted to a ceiling below 400 km. An investigation of the tracked satellite population transiting and influencing the human space flight regime during the past 11 years (equivalent to a full solar cycle) has recently been completed. The overall effects of satellite breakups and solar activity are typically less pronounced in the human space flight regime than other regions of low Earth orbit. As of January 2006 nearly 1500 tracked objects resided in or traversed the human space flight regime, although two-thirds of these objects were in orbits of moderate to high eccentricity, significantly reducing their effect on human space flight safety. During the period investigated, the spatial density of tracked objects in the 350-400 km altitude regime of the International Space Station demonstrated a steady decline, actually decreasing by 50% by the end of the period. On the other hand, the region immediately above 600 km experienced a significant increase in its population density. This regime is important for future risk assessments, since this region represents the reservoir of debris which will influence human space flight safety in the future. The paper seeks to put into sharper perspective the risks posed to human space flight by the tracked satellite population, as well as the influences of solar activity and the effects of compliance with orbital debris mitigation guidelines on human space flight missions. Finally, the methods and successes of characterizing the population of smaller debris at human space flight regimes are addressed.

Estimating Allee dynamics before they can be observed: polar bears as a case study.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Lewis, Mark A; Derocher, Andrew E

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species.

Estimating Allee Dynamics before They Can Be Observed: Polar Bears as a Case Study

PubMed Central

Molnár, Péter K.; Lewis, Mark A.; Derocher, Andrew E.

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species. PMID:24427306

Change in numbers of resident and migratory shorebirds at the Cabo Rojo Salt Flats, Puerto Rico, USA (1985–2014)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parks, Morgan A.; Collazo, Jaime A.; Colon, Jose A.; Ramos Alvarez, Katsi R.; Diaz, Oscar

2016-01-01

North American migratory shorebirds have declined markedly since the 1980s, underscoring the importance of population surveys to conduct status and trend assessments. Shorebird surveys were conducted during three multi-year periods between 1985 and 2014 and used to assess changes in numbers and species composition at the Cabo Rojo Salt Flats, Puerto Rico, USA, a site of regional importance in the eastern Caribbean. Eight fewer species (total = 21) were recorded in 2013–2014 as compared to the 29 from 1985–1992; all eight species were Nearctic migrants. Small calidrids had the highest population counts; however, this suite of species and all others experienced a ≥ 70% decline. Combined counts from the salt flats and neighboring wetlands in 2013–2014 were lower than counts only from the Cabo Rojo Salt Flats in two previous multi-year survey periods, which indicated a real change in numbers not just a shift in wetland use. Invertebrate prey density was lower in 2013–2014 than in 1994. Body fat condition of Semipalmated Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla), an index of habitat quality, did not differ between 1985–1992 and 2013–2014. These findings do not exclude the possibility that other species might be affected by lower prey density, or that local declines in numbers reflect changes at hemispheric, not local, scales. The magnitude of change between local and hemispheric scales closely matched for some species. Continued monitoring at the salt flats is warranted to help gauge the status of shorebirds in Puerto Rico and discern the probable cause of declines. Monitoring other sites in the Caribbean is needed for stronger inferences about regional status and trends.

Decline and conservation of bumble bees.

PubMed

Goulson, D; Lye, G C; Darvill, B

2008-01-01

Declines in bumble bee species in the past 60 years are well documented in Europe, where they are driven primarily by habitat loss and declines in floral abundance and diversity resulting from agricultural intensification. Impacts of habitat degradation and fragmentation are likely to be compounded by the social nature of bumble bees and their largely monogamous breeding system, which renders their effective population size low. Hence, populations are susceptible to stochastic extinction events and inbreeding. In North America, catastrophic declines of some bumble bee species since the 1990s are probably attributable to the accidental introduction of a nonnative parasite from Europe, a result of global trade in domesticated bumble bee colonies used for pollination of greenhouse crops. Given the importance of bumble bees as pollinators of crops and wildflowers, steps must be taken to prevent further declines. Suggested measures include tight regulation of commercial bumble bee use and targeted use of environmentally comparable schemes to enhance floristic diversity in agricultural landscapes.

The impact of development and population policies on fertility in India.

PubMed

Jain, A K

1985-01-01

This article examines the impact of development and population policies on fertility decline and regional variations in India during the 1970s. Indicators of development at the household level include female literacy and education, infant mortality, and poverty; at the village level they include availability of such social services as schools, medical facilities, and transportation and communication facilities. Multiple regression analysis of data aggregated at the state level demonstrates that conditions conducive to fertility decline include high adult female literacy and low infant mortality as indicators of social development, and high contraceptive use and, to a lesser extent, high female age at marriage as proximate determinants of fertility. There are reasons to believe that India's national family planning program contributed to the decline in fertility observed since the 1960s. The pace of fertility decline in the future will depend upon the pace of infant mortality decline, enhancement in female education, and improvements in family planning programs.

Disruption of Rhino Demography by Poachers May Lead to Population Declines in Kruger National Park, South Africa

PubMed Central

Ferreira, Sam M.; Greaver, Cathy; Knight, Grant A.; Knight, Mike H.; Smit, Izak P. J.; Pienaar, Danie

2015-01-01

The onslaught on the World’s rhinoceroses continues despite numerous initiatives aimed at curbing it. When losses due to poaching exceed birth rates, declining rhino populations result. We used previously published estimates and growth rates for black rhinos (2008) and white rhinos (2010) together with known poaching trends at the time to predict population sizes and poaching rates in Kruger National Park, South Africa for 2013. Kruger is a stronghold for the south-eastern black rhino and southern white rhino. Counting rhinos on 878 blocks 3x3 km in size using helicopters, estimating availability bias and collating observer and detectability biases allowed estimates using the Jolly’s estimator. The exponential escalation in number of rhinos poached per day appears to have slowed. The black rhino estimate of 414 individuals (95% confidence interval: 343-487) was lower than the predicted 835 individuals (95% CI: 754-956). The white rhino estimate of 8,968 individuals (95% CI: 8,394-9,564) overlapped with the predicted 9,417 individuals (95% CI: 7,698-11,183). Density- and rainfall-dependent responses in birth- and death rates of white rhinos provide opportunities to offset anticipated poaching effects through removals of rhinos from high density areas to increase birth and survival rates. Biological management of rhinos, however, need complimentary management of the poaching threat as present poaching trends predict detectable declines in white rhino abundances by 2018. Strategic responses such as anti-poaching that protect supply from illegal harvesting, reducing demand, and increasing supply commonly require crime network disruption as a first step complimented by providing options for alternative economies in areas abutting protected areas. PMID:26121681

Geographic disparity in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) mortality rates among the Taiwan population.

PubMed

Chan, Ta-Chien; Chiang, Po-Huang; Su, Ming-Daw; Wang, Hsuan-Wen; Liu, Michael Shi-yung

2014-01-01

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes a high disease burden among the elderly worldwide. In Taiwan, the long-term temporal trend of COPD mortality is declining, but the geographical disparity of the disease is not yet known. Nationwide COPD age-adjusted mortality at the township level during 1999-2007 is used for elucidating the geographical distribution of the disease. With an ordinary least squares (OLS) model and geographically weighted regression (GWR), the ecologic risk factors such as smoking rate, area deprivation index, tuberculosis exposure, percentage of aborigines, density of health care facilities, air pollution and altitude are all considered in both models to evaluate their effects on mortality. Global and local Moran's I are used for examining their spatial autocorrelation and identifying clusters. During the study period, the COPD age-adjusted mortality rates in males declined from 26.83 to 19.67 per 100,000 population, and those in females declined from 8.98 to 5.70 per 100,000 population. Overall, males' COPD mortality rate was around three times higher than females'. In the results of GWR, the median coefficients of smoking rate, the percentage of aborigines, PM10 and the altitude are positively correlated with COPD mortality in males and females. The median value of density of health care facilities is negatively correlated with COPD mortality. The overall adjusted R-squares are about 20% higher in the GWR model than in the OLS model. The local Moran's I of the GWR's residuals reflected the consistent high-high cluster in southern Taiwan. The findings indicate that geographical disparities in COPD mortality exist. Future epidemiological investigation is required to understand the specific risk factors within the clustering areas.

Body armour and lateral-plate reduction in freshwater three-spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus: adaptations to a different buoyancy regime?

PubMed

Myhre, F; Klepaker, T

2009-11-01

Several factors related to buoyancy were compared between one marine and two freshwater populations of three-spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus. Fish from all three populations had buoyancy near to neutral to the ambient water. This showed that neither marine nor freshwater G. aculeatus used swimming and hydrodynamic lift to prevent sinking. Comparing the swimbladder volumes showed that freshwater completely plated G. aculeatus had a significantly larger swimbladder volume than both completely plated marine and low-plated freshwater G. aculeatus. Furthermore, body tissue density was lower in low-plated G. aculeatus than in the completely plated marine and freshwater fish. The results show that G. aculeatus either reduce tissue density or increase swimbladder volume to adapt to lower water density. Mass measurements of lateral plates and pelvis showed that loss of body armour in low-plated G. aculeatus could explain the tissue density difference between low-plated and completely plated G. aculeatus. This suggests that the common occurrence of plate and armour reduction in freshwater G. aculeatus populations can be an adaptation to a lower water density.

Intercolony variation in growth of black brant goslings on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fondell, T.F.; Flint, Paul L.; Sedinger, J.S.; Nicolai, C.A.; Schamber, J.L.

2011-01-01

Recent declines in black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) are likely the result of low recruitment. In geese, recruitment is strongly affected by habitat conditions experienced by broods because gosling growth rates are indicative of forage conditions during brood rearing and strongly influence future survival and productivity. In 2006–2008, we studied gosling growth at 3 of the 4 major colonies on the Yukon‐Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska. Estimates of age‐adjusted gosling mass at the 2 southern colonies (approx. 30% of the world population of breeding black brant) was low (gosling mass at 30.5 days ranged 346.7 ± 42.5 g to 627.1 ± 15.9 g) in comparison to a third colony (gosling mass at 30.5 days ranged 640.0 ± 8.3 g to 821.6 ± 13.6 g) and to most previous estimates of age‐adjusted mass of brant goslings. Thus, our results are consistent with the hypothesis that poor gosling growth is negatively influencing the brant population. There are 2 non‐mutually exclusive explanations for the apparent growth rates we observed. First, the population decline may have been caused by density‐independent factors and habitat capacity has declined along with the population as a consequence of the unique foraging feedback between brant and their grazing habitats. Alternatively, a reduction in habitat capacity, as a result of changes to the grazing system, may have negatively influenced gosling growth, which is contributing to the overall long‐term population decline. We found support for both explanations. For colonies over habitat capacity we recommend management to enhance foraging habitat, whereas for colonies below habitat capacity we recommend management to increase nesting productivity.

The Change in Living Kidney Donation in Women and Men in the United States (2005-2015): A Population-Based Analysis.

PubMed

Gill, Jagbir; Joffres, Yayuk; Rose, Caren; Lesage, Julie; Landsberg, David; Kadatz, Matthew; Gill, John

2018-04-01

The factors underlying the decline in living kidney donation in the United States since 2005 must be understood to inform strategies to ensure access to this option for future patients. Population-based estimates provide a better assessment of donation activity than do trends in the number of living donor transplants. Using data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients and the United States Census, we determined longitudinal changes in living kidney donation between 2005 and 2015, focusing on the effect of sex and income. We used multilevel Poisson models to adjust for differences in age, race, the incidence of ESRD, and geographic factors (including population density, urbanization, and daily commuting). During the study period, the unadjusted rate of donation was 30.1 and 19.3 per million population in women and men, respectively, and the adjusted incidence of donation was 44% higher in women (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.44; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.39 to 1.49). The incidence of donation was stable in women (IRR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.84 to 1.07) but declined in men (IRR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.68 to 0.83). Income was associated with longitudinal changes in donation in both sexes, yet donation was stable in the highest two population income quartiles in women but only in the highest income quartile in men. In both sexes, living related donations declined, irrespective of income. In conclusion, living donation declined in men but remained stable in women between 2005 and 2015, and income appeared to have a greater effect on living donation in men. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) survivorship and habitat studies in Bighorn Canyon National Recreation Area and surrounding lands, Wyoming and Montana, 2000–2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schoenecker, Kathryn A.; Singer, Francis J.; Grams, Kayla A.; Roelle, James E.

2004-01-01

In the 1850s, bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) were numerous and distributed throughout the Bighorn and Pryor Mountains of Montana and Wyoming. After European settlement, bighorn sheep populations declined, and local extinctions occurred in much of their historic range in the western United States. The current bighorn sheep population of Bighorn Canyon National Recreation Area (BICA) is the product of several reintroductions into BICA and surrounding lands. Following a release in 1973 and growth rates near maximum potential of 19.8% per year, the population grew to an estimated peak population of about 211 animals in 1993 and 1994 (Kissell and others, 1996). Recent counts indicate the bighorn sheep population has declined. Kissell and others (1996) reported that the population began to decline rapidly in 1995 and 1996. He noted low ewe:lamb ratios during the decline phase. Bighorn sheep numbers declined to the lowest minimum viable population size of 100 animals recommended by several bighorn sheep experts (Bailey, 1990; Berger, 1990; Smith and others, 1991). National Park Service (NPS) and Bureau of Land Management (BLM) managers were concerned about the decline and requested a study of its causes. In 2000, the U.S. Geological Survey- Biological Resources Division (USGS-BRD) received funding to start a 3-year study of survivorship, condition, and population growth rate of the BICA bighorn sheep population.Several possibilities exist for the bighorn sheep decline. The herd may have experienced a rapid population expansion, followed by a decline to stability at a lower long-term carrying capacity. This pattern of apparently overshooting carrying capacity following an initial release has been reported for a number of ungulates (Caughley, 1976). Disease may have caused the decline; predation and/or competition with wild horses (Equus caballus) may also have been factors. A spatial model of wild horse carrying capacity (Coughenour, 1999) was developed to assist managers in evaluating wild horse population numbers. Studies of summer consumption rates by wild horses and other ungulates were conducted by James Detling and students from Colorado State University (Peterson and others, 1997; Gerhardt and Detling, 1998; Fahnestock, 1998). Diets and habitat use of wild horses, bighorn sheep and mule deer were studied by Coates and Schemnitz (1989) and Kissell and others (1996). Both Coates and Schemnitz (1989) and Kissell and others (1996) reported a high degree of dietary overlap between wild horses and bighorn sheep. However, Kissell and others (1996) concluded that a high degree of spatial separation between wild horses and bighorn sheep, at least under the study conditions, precluded any significant negative competitive influences. The most important overlap of bighorn sheep and wild horses seems to be on winter range. Competition can be difficult to determine, since current conditions may not reveal competition that has already occurred. Managers remained concerned about the declining bighorn population for the following reasons: Our objectives for the study were to: Evaluate current disease problems and mortality rates, including predation rates, in bighorn sheep through captures and monitoring of bighorn sheep.Determine winter spatial relations of wild horses and bighorn sheep through aerial surveys of winter range.Conduct habitat measurements to determine why bighorn sheep were not using what had been mapped with a GIS-based habitat model as suitable bighorn sheep habitat, and sample winter and summer consumption rates of key forage species to see if there were other factors precluding use of these areas by bighorn sheep.Compare winter lamb recruitment rates and total vegetation consumption rates on bighorn sheep winter use areas, with and without wild horses present.Complete year-round GIS-based distribution maps for wild horses and bighorn sheep in order to identify key areas of species overlap and key areas of species separation for potential habitat improvements.NPS park staff asked USGS to answer the following questions: (a) how large is the population?; (b) how many rams are in the population?; (c) in addition to low lamb recruitment, is mortality or dispersal of adults likely contributing to the decline?; and (d) is trophy hunting of rams contributing to the decline?

Genetic variation in insecticide tolerance in a population of southern leopard frogs (Rana sphenocephala): Implications for amphibian conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bridges, C.M.; Semlitsch, R.D.

2001-01-01

Currently, conservation efforts are devoted to determining the extent and the causes of the decline of many amphibian species worldwide. Human impacts frequently degrade amphibian habitat and have been implicated in many declines. Because genetic variance is critical in determining the persistence of a species in a changing environment, we examined the amount of genetic variability present in a single population for tolerance to an environmental stressor. We examined the amount of genetic variability among full- and half-sib families in a single population of southern leopard frogs (Rana sphenocephala) with respect to their tolerance to lethal concentrations of the agricultural chemical, carbaryl. Analysis of time-to-death data indicated significant differences among full-sib families and suggests a large amount of variability present in the responses to this environmental stressor. Significant differences in responses among half-sib families indicated that there is additive genetic variance. These data suggest that this population may have the ability to adapt to environmental stressors. It is possible that declines of amphibian populations in the western United States may be attributed to low genetic variability resulting from limited migration among populations and small population sizes.

Status and trends in the fish community of Lake Superior, 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gorman, Owen T.; Evrard, Lori M.; Cholwek, Gary A.; Vinson, Mark

2012-01-01

Due to ship mechanical failures, nearshore sampling was delayed from mid-May to mid-June to mid-June to late August. The shift to summer sampling when the lake was stratified may have affected our estimates, thus our estimates of status and trends for the nearshore fish community in 2012 are tentative, pending results of future surveys. However, the results of the 2012 survey are comparable with those during 2009 and 2010 when lake-wide fish biomass declined to < 1.40 kg/ha. Declines in prey fish biomass since the late 1990s can be attributed to a combination of increased predation by recovered lake trout populations and infrequent and weak recruitment by the principal prey fishes, cisco and bloater. In turn declines in lake trout biomass since the mid-2000s are likely linked to declines in prey fish biomass. If lean and siscowet lake trout populations in nearshore waters continue to remain at current levels, predation mortality will likely maintain the relatively low prey fish biomass observed in recent years. Alternatively, if lake trout populations show a substantial decline in abundance in upcoming years, prey fish populations may rebound in a fashion reminiscent to what occurred in the late 1970s to mid-1980s. However, this scenario depends on substantial increases in harvest of lake trout, which seems unlikely given that levels of lake trout harvest have been flat or declining in many regions of Lake Superior since 2000.

The conservation status of the herpetofauna of Honduras

PubMed Central

2003-01-01

The conservation status of the members of the Honduran herpetofauna is discussed. Based on current and projected future human population growth, it is posited that the entire herpetofauna is endangered. The known herpetofauna of Honduras currently consists of 334 species, including 117 amphibians and 217 reptiles (including six marine reptiles, which are not discussed in this paper). The greatest number of species occur at low and moderate elevations in lowland and/or mesic forest formations, in the Northern and Southern Cordilleras of the Serranía, and the ecophysiographic areas of the Caribbean coastal plain and foothills. Slightly more than one-third of the herpetofauna consists of endemic species or those otherwise restricted to Nuclear Middle America. Honduras is an area severely affected by amphibian population decline, with close to one-half of the amphibian fauna threatened, endangered, or extinct. The principal threats to the survival of members of the herpetofauna are uncontrolled human population growth and its corollaries, habitat alteration and destruction, pollution, pest and predator control, overhunting, and overexploitation. No Honduran amphibians or reptiles are entirely free of human impact. A gauge is used to estimate environmental vulnerability of amphibian species, using measures of extent of geographic range, extent of ecological distribution, and degree of specialization of reproductive mode. A similar gauge is developed for reptiles, using the first two measures for amphibian vulnerability, and a third scale for the degree of human persecution. Based on these gauges, amphibians and reptiles show an actual range of Environmental Vulnerability Scores (EVS) almost as broad as the theoretical range. Based on the actual EVS, both amphibian and reptilian species are divided into three categories of low, medium, and high vulnerability. There are 24 low vulnerability amphibians and 47 reptiles, 43 medium vulnerability amphibians and 111 reptiles, and 50 high vulnerability amphibians and 53 reptiles. Theoretical EVS values are assessed against available information on current population status of endemic and Nuclear Middle American taxa. Almost half (48.8%) of the endemic species of Honduran amphibians are already extinct or have populations that are in decline. Populations of 40.0% of the Nuclear Middle American amphibian species are extirpated or in decline. A little less than a third (27.0%) of the endemic reptiles are thought to have declining populations. Almost six of every ten (54.5%) of the Nuclear Middle American reptilian species are thought to have declining populations. EVS values provide a useful indicator of potential for endangerment, illustrating that the species whose populations are currently in decline or are extinct or extirpated have relatively high EVS. All high EVS species need to be monitored closely for changes in population status. A set of recommendations are offered, assuming that biotic reserves in Honduras can be safeguarded, that it is hoped will lead to a system of robust, healthy, and economically self-sustaining protected areas for the country's herpetofauna. These recommendations will have to be enacted swiftly, however, due to unremitting pressure from human population growth and the resulting deforestation. PMID:15029252

Renesting by dusky Canada geese on the Copper River Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fondell, Thomas F.; Grand, James B.; Miller, David A.W.; Anthony, R. Michael

2006-01-01

The population of dusky Canada geese (Branta canadensis occidentalis; hereafter duskies) breeding on the Copper River Delta (CRD), Alaska, USA, has been in long-term decline, largely as a result of reduced productivity. Estimates of renesting rates by duskies may be useful for adjusting estimates of the size of the breeding population derived from aerial surveys and for understanding population dynamics. We used a marked population of dusky females to obtain estimates of renesting propensity and renesting interval on the CRD, 1999–2000. Continuation nests, replacement nests initiated without a break in the laying sequence, resulted only after first nests were destroyed in the laying stage with ≤4 eggs laid. Renesting propensity declined with nest age from 72% in mid-laying to 30% in early incubation. Between first nests and renests, mean interval was 11.9 ± 0.6 days, mean distance was 74.5 m (range 0–214 m), and clutch size declined 0.9 ± 0.4 eggs. We incorporated our renesting estimates and available estimates of other nesting parameters into an individual-based model to predict the proportion of first nests, continuation nests, and renests, and to examine female success on the CRD, 1997–2000. Our model predicted that 19–36% of nests each year were continuation nests and renests. Also, through 15 May (the approx. date of breeding ground surveys), 1.1–1.3 nests were initiated per female. Thus, the number of nests per female would have a significant, though relatively consistent, effect on adjusting the relation between numbers of nests found on ground surveys versus numbers of birds seen during aerial surveys. We also suggest a method that managers could use to predict nests per female using nest success of early nests. Our model predicted that relative to observed estimates of nest success, female success was 32–100% greater, due to replacement nests. Thus, although nest success remains low, production for duskies was higher than previously thought. For dusky Canada geese, managers need to consider both continuation nests and renests in designing surveys and in calculating adjustment factors for the expansion of aerial survey data using nest densities.

Sumatran tiger survival threatened by deforestation despite increasing densities in parks.

PubMed

Luskin, Matthew Scott; Albert, Wido Rizki; Tobler, Mathias W

2017-12-05

The continuing development of improved capture-recapture (CR) modeling techniques used to study apex predators has also limited robust temporal and cross-site analyses due to different methods employed. We develop an approach to standardize older non-spatial CR and newer spatial CR density estimates and examine trends for critically endangered Sumatran tigers (Panthera tigris sumatrae) using a meta-regression of 17 existing densities and new estimates from our own fieldwork. We find that tiger densities were 47% higher in primary versus degraded forests and, unexpectedly, increased 4.9% per yr from 1996 to 2014, likely indicating a recovery from earlier poaching. However, while tiger numbers may have temporarily risen, the total potential island-wide population declined by 16.6% from 2000 to 2012 due to forest loss and degradation and subpopulations are significantly more fragmented. Thus, despite increasing densities in smaller parks, we conclude that there are only two robust populations left with >30 breeding females, indicating Sumatran tigers still face a high risk of extinction unless deforestation can be controlled.

Influences on Bythotrephes longimanus life-history characteristics in the Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pothoven, Steven A.; Vanderploeg, Henry A.; Warner, David M.; Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.; Ludsin, Stuart A.; Claramunt, Randall M.; Nalepa, Thomas F.

2012-01-01

We compared Bythotrephes population demographics and dynamics to predator (planktivorous fish) and prey (small-bodied crustacean zooplankton) densities at a site sampled through the growing season in Lakes Michigan, Huron, and Erie. Although seasonal average densities of Bythotrephes were similar across lakes (222/m2 Erie, 247/m2 Huron, 162/m2 Michigan), temporal trends in abundance differed among lakes. In central Lake Erie where Bythotrephes' prey assemblage was dominated by small individuals (60%), where planktivorous fish densities were high (14,317/ha), and where a shallow water column limited availability of a deepwater refuge, the Bythotrephes population was characterized by a small mean body size, large broods with small neonates, allocation of length increases mainly to the spine rather than to the body, and a late summer population decline. By contrast, in Lake Michigan where Bythotrephes' prey assemblage was dominated by large individuals (72%) and planktivorous fish densities were lower (5052/ha), the Bythotrephes population was characterized by a large mean body size (i.e., 37–55% higher than in Erie), small broods with large neonates, nearly all growth in body length occurring between instars 1 and 2, and population persistence into fall. Life-history characteristics in Lake Huron tended to be intermediate to those found in Lakes Michigan and Erie, reflecting lower overall prey and predator densities (1224/ha) relative to the other lakes. Because plasticity in life history can affect interactions with other species, our findings point to the need to understand life-history variation among Great Lakes populations to improve our ability to model the dynamics of these ecosystems.

Evidence for density-dependent changes in growth, downstream movement, and size of Chinook salmon subyearlings in a large-river landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Connor, William P.; Tiffan, Kenneth F.; Plumb, John M.; Moffit, Christine M.

2013-01-01

We studied the growth rate, downstream movement, and size of naturally produced fall Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha subyearlings (age 0) for 20 years in an 8th-order river landscape with regulated riverine upstream rearing areas and an impounded downstream migration corridor. The population transitioned from low to high abundance in association with U.S. Endangered Species Act and other federally mandated recovery efforts. The mean growth rate of parr in the river did not decline with increasing abundance, but during the period of higher abundance the timing of dispersal from riverine habitat into the reservoir averaged 17 d earlier and the average size at the time of downstream dispersal was smaller by 10 mm and 1.8 g. Changes in apparent abundance, measured by catch per unit effort, largely explained the time of dispersal, measured by median day of capture, in riverine habitat. The growth rate of smolts in the reservoir declined from an average of 0.6 to 0.2 g/d between the abundance periods because the reduction in size at reservoir entry was accompanied by a tendency to migrate rather than linger and by increasing concentrations of smolts in the reservoir. The median date of passage through the reservoir was 14 d earlier on average, and average smolt size was smaller by 38 mm and 22.0 g, in accordance with density-dependent behavioral changes reflected by decreased smolt growth. Unexpectedly, smolts during the high-abundance period had begun to reexpress the migration timing and size phenotypes observed before the river was impounded, when abundance was relatively high. Our findings provide evidence for density-dependent phenotypic change in a large river that was influenced by the expansion of a recovery program. Thus, this study shows that efforts to recover native fishes can have detectable effects in large-river landscapes. The outcome of such phenotypic change, which will be an important area of future research, can only be fully judged by examining the effect of the change on population viability and productivity.

Neighbourhood walkability, road density and socio-economic status in Sydney, Australia.

PubMed

Cowie, Christine T; Ding, Ding; Rolfe, Margaret I; Mayne, Darren J; Jalaludin, Bin; Bauman, Adrian; Morgan, Geoffrey G

2016-04-27

Planning and transport agencies play a vital role in influencing the design of townscapes, travel modes and travel behaviors, which in turn impact on the walkability of neighbourhoods and residents' physical activity opportunities. Optimising neighbourhood walkability is desirable in built environments, however, the population health benefits of walkability may be offset by increased exposure to traffic related air pollution. This paper describes the spatial distribution of neighbourhood walkability and weighted road density, a marker for traffic related air pollution, in Sydney, Australia. As exposure to air pollution is related to socio-economic status in some cities, this paper also examines the spatial distribution of weighted road density and walkability by socio-economic status (SES). We calculated walkability, weighted road density (as a measure of traffic related air pollution) and SES, using predefined and validated measures, for 5858 Sydney neighbourhoods, representing 3.6 million population. We overlaid tertiles of walkability and weighted road density to define "sweet-spots" (high walkability-low weighted road density), and "sour- spots" (low walkability-high weighted road density) neighbourhoods. We also examined the distribution of walkability and weighted road density by SES quintiles. Walkability and weighted road density showed a clear east-west gradient across the region. Our study found that only 4 % of Sydney's population lived in sweet-spot" neighbourhoods with high walkability and low weighted road density (desirable), and these tended to be located closer to the city centre. A greater proportion of neighbourhoods had health limiting attributes of high weighted road density or low walkability (about 20 % each), and over 5 % of the population lived in "sour-spot" neighbourhoods with low walkability and high weighted road density (least desirable). These neighbourhoods were more distant from the city centre and scattered more widely. There were no linear trends between walkability/weighted road density and neighbourhood SES. Our walkability and weighted road density maps and associated analyses by SES can help identify neighbourhoods with inequalities in health-promoting or health-limiting environments. Planning agencies should seek out opportunities for increased neighbourhood walkability through improved urban development and transport planning, which simultaneously minimizes exposure to traffic related air pollution.

Removal of nonnative fish results in population expansion of a declining amphibian (mountain yellow-legged frog, Rana muscosa)

PubMed Central

KNAPP, Roland A.; BOIANO, Daniel M.; VREDENBURG, Vance T.

2007-01-01

The mountain yellow-legged frog (Rana muscosa) was once a common inhabitant of the Sierra Nevada (California, USA), but has declined precipitously during the past century due in part to the introduction of nonnative fish into naturally fishless habitats. The objectives of the current study were to describe (1) the effect of fish removal from three lakes (located in two watersheds) on the small, remnant R. muscosa populations inhabiting those lakes, and (2) the initial development of metapopulation structure in each watershed as R. muscosa from expanding populations in fish-removal lakes dispersed to adjacent habitats. At all three fish-removal lakes, R. muscosa population densities increased significantly following the removal of predatory fish. The magnitude of these increases was significantly greater than that observed over the same time period in R. muscosa populations inhabiting control lakes that remained in their natural fishless condition. Following these population increases, R. muscosa dispersed to adjacent suitable (but unoccupied) sites, moving between 200 and 900 m along streams or across dry land. Together, these results suggest that large-scale removal of introduced fish could result in at least partial reversal of the decline of R. muscosa. Continued monitoring of R. muscosa at the fish-removal sites will be necessary to determine whether the positive effects of fish eradication are sustained over the long-term, especially in light of the increasingly important role played by an emerging infectious disease (chytridiomycosis, caused by Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) in influencing R. muscosa populations. PMID:17396156

The compounding effects of high pollen limitation, selfing rates and inbreeding depression leave a New Zealand tree with few viable offspring

PubMed Central

Van Etten, Megan L.; Tate, Jennifer A.; Anderson, Sandra H.; Kelly, Dave; Ladley, Jenny J.; Merrett, Merilyn F.; Peterson, Paul G.; Robertson, Alastair W.

2015-01-01

Background and Aims Interactions between species are especially sensitive to environmental changes. The interaction between plants and pollinators is of particular interest given the potential current global decline in pollinators. Reduced pollinator services can be compensated for in some plant species by self-pollination. However, if inbreeding depression is high, selfed progeny could die prior to reaching adulthood, leading to cryptic recruitment failure. Methods To examine this scenario, pollinator abundance, pollen limitation, selfing rates and inbreeding depression were examined in 12 populations of varying disturbance levels in Sophora microphylla (Fabaceae), an endemic New Zealand tree species. Key Results High pollen limitation was found in all populations (average of 58 % reduction in seed production, nine populations), together with high selfing rates (61 % of offspring selfed, six populations) and high inbreeding depression (selfed offspring 86 % less fit, six populations). Pollen limitation was associated with lower visitation rates by the two endemic bird pollinators. Conclusions The results suggest that for these populations, over half of the seeds produced are genetically doomed. This reduction in the fitness of progeny due to reduced pollinator service is probably important to population dynamics of other New Zealand species. More broadly, the results suggest that measures of seed production or seedling densities may be a gross overestimate of the effective offspring production. This could lead to cryptic recruitment failure, i.e. a decline in successful reproduction despite high progeny production. Given the global extent of pollinator declines, cryptic recruitment failure may be widespread. PMID:26229065

High population density enhances recruitment and survival of a harvested coral reef fish.

PubMed

Wormald, Clare L; Steele, Mark A; Forrester, Graham E

2013-03-01

A negative relationship between population growth and population density (direct density dependence) is necessary for population regulation and is assumed in most models of harvested populations. Experimental tests for density dependence are lacking for large-bodied, harvested fish because of the difficulty of manipulating population density over large areas. We studied a harvested coral reef fish, Lutjanus apodus (schoolmaster snapper), using eight large, isolated natural reefs (0.4-1.6 ha) in the Bahamas as replicates. An initial observational test for density dependence was followed by a manipulation of population density. The manipulation weakened an association between density and shelter-providing habitat features and revealed a positive effect of population density on recruitment and survival (inverse density dependence), but no effect of density on somatic growth. The snappers on an individual reef were organized into a few shoals, and we hypothesize that large shoals on high-density reefs were less vulnerable to large piscivores (groupers and barracudas) than the small shoals on low-density reefs. Reductions in predation risk for individuals in large social groups are well documented, but because snapper shoals occupied reefs the size of small marine reserves, these ecological interactions may influence the outcome of management actions.

Density-dependent effects on physical condition and reproduction in North American elk: an experimental test.

Treesearch

Kelley M. Stewart; R. Terry Bowyer; Brian L. Dick; Bruce K. Johnson; John G. Kie

2005-01-01

Density dependence plays a key role in life-history characteristics and population ecology of large, herbivorous mammals. We designed a manipulative experiment to test hypotheses relating effects of density-dependent mechanisms on physical condition and fecundity of North American elk (Cervus elaphus) by creating populations at low and high density...

Emerald ash borer aftermath forests: The dynamics of ash mortality and the responses of other plant species

Treesearch

Kathleen S. Knight; Daniel A. Herms; John Cardina; Robert Long; Joanne Rebbeck; Kamal J.K. Gandhi; Annemarie Smith; Wendy S. Klooster; Catherine P. Herms; Alejandro A. Royo

2010-01-01

The effects of emerald ash borer (EAB) (Agrilus planipennis) on forest ecosystems are being studied through a collaborative research program involving the U.S. Forest Service's Northern Research Station and The Ohio State University. We are monitoring the decline and mortality of >4,500 ash trees and saplings, EAB population density, changes...

Projections of forestland and developed land areas in western Washington.

Treesearch

R. Alig; E. White

2007-01-01

Between 1990 and 2000, nonfederal timberland areas in western Washington declined by 5 percent, in contrast to a 3-percent reduction for the 1980-90 period. Most of this reduction is attributed to the conversion of timberland to other land uses, especially urban and other developed uses. In areas such as the Puget Sound region, population densities have more than...

Optimizing use of girdled ash trees for management of low-density emerald ash borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) populations

Treesearch

Nathan W. Siegert; Deborah G. McCullough; Therese M. Poland; Robert L. Heyd

2017-01-01

Effective survey methods to detect and monitor recently established, low-density infestations of emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), remain a high priority because they provide land managers and property owners with time to implement tactics to slow emerald ash borer population growth and the progression of...

Has Thailand's fertility decline stalled?

PubMed

Knodel, J; Chayovan, N; Frisen, C

1988-09-01

Thailand is 1 of the third world countries in which a very substantial fertility decline has occurred during the last 2 decades. However, there has been some recent concern, based on fertility rates derived from 3 national contraceptive prevalence surveys conducted in 1978/1979, 1981, and 1984, that the fertility decline may have lost momentum at a level well above replacement fertility. New evidence now available from a more recent national survey which permits calculation of retrospective fertility trends, in combination with those from registration data, clearly contradicts the suggestion of a fall in the fertility decline. Moreover, because expected family size remains low among women currently starting their reproductive careers and evidence shows that the preferred number of children has fallen more or less steadily, low fertility may be expected to be a feature of the Thai population for some time to come.

The Kok effect in Vicia faba cannot be explained solely by changes in chloroplastic CO2 concentration.

PubMed

Buckley, Thomas N; Vice, Heather; Adams, Mark A

2017-12-01

The Kok effect - an abrupt decline in quantum yield (QY) of net CO 2 assimilation at low photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) - is widely used to estimate respiration in the light (R), which assumes the effect is caused by light suppression of R. A recent report suggested much of the Kok effect can be explained by declining chloroplastic CO 2 concentration (c c ) at low PPFD. Several predictions arise from the hypothesis that the Kok effect is caused by declining c c , and we tested these predictions in Vicia faba. We measured CO 2 exchange at low PPFD, in 2% and 21% oxygen, in developing and mature leaves, which differed greatly in R in darkness. Our results contradicted each of the predictions based on the c c effect: QY exceeded the theoretical maximum value for photosynthetic CO 2 uptake; QY was larger in 21% than 2% oxygen; and the change in QY at the Kok effect breakpoint was unaffected by oxygen. Our results strongly suggest the Kok effect arises largely from a progressive decline in R with PPFD that includes both oxygen-sensitive and -insensitive components. We suggest an improved Kok method that accounts for high c c at low PPFD. © 2017 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

Dropping dead: causes and consequences of vulture population declines worldwide.

PubMed

Ogada, Darcy L; Keesing, Felicia; Virani, Munir Z

2012-02-01

Vultures are nature's most successful scavengers, and they provide an array of ecological, economic, and cultural services. As the only known obligate scavengers, vultures are uniquely adapted to a scavenging lifestyle. Vultures' unique adaptations include soaring flight, keen eyesight, and extremely low pH levels in their stomachs. Presently, 14 of 23 (61%) vulture species worldwide are threatened with extinction, and the most rapid declines have occurred in the vulture-rich regions of Asia and Africa. The reasons for the population declines are varied, but poisoning or human persecution, or both, feature in the list of nearly every declining species. Deliberate poisoning of carnivores is likely the most widespread cause of vulture poisoning. In Asia, Gyps vultures have declined by >95% due to poisoning by the veterinary drug diclofenac, which was banned by regional governments in 2006. Human persecution of vultures has occurred for centuries, and shooting and deliberate poisoning are the most widely practiced activities. Ecological consequences of vulture declines include changes in community composition of scavengers at carcasses and an increased potential for disease transmission between mammalian scavengers at carcasses. There have been cultural and economic costs of vulture declines as well, particularly in Asia. In the wake of catastrophic vulture declines in Asia, regional governments, the international scientific and donor communities, and the media have given the crisis substantial attention. Even though the Asian vulture crisis focused attention on the plight of vultures worldwide, the situation for African vultures has received relatively little attention especially given the similar levels of population decline. While the Asian crisis has been largely linked to poisoning by diclofenac, vulture population declines in Africa have numerous causes, which have made conserving existing populations more difficult. And in Africa there has been little government support to conserve vultures despite mounting evidence of the major threats. In other regions with successful vulture conservation programs, a common theme is a huge investment of financial resources and highly skilled personnel, as well as political will and community support. © 2012 New York Academy of Sciences.

Beaver (Castor canadensis) in heavily browsed environments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baker, Bruce W.

2003-01-01

Beaver (Castor canadensis) populations have declined or failed to recover in heavily browsed environments. I suggest that intense browsing by livestock or ungulates can disrupt beaver-willow (Salix spp.) mutualisms that likely evolved under relatively low herbivory in a more predator-rich environment, and that this interaction may explain beaver and willow declines. Field experiments in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA, found the interaction of beaver and elk (Cervus elaphus) herbivory suppressed compensatory growth in willow. Intense elk browsing of simulated beaver-cut willow produced plants which were small and hedged with a high percentage of dead stems, whereas protected plants were large and highly branched with a low percentage of dead stems. Evaluation of a winter food cache showed beaver had selected woody stems with a lower percentage of leaders browsed by elk. A lack of willow stems suitable as winter beaver food may cause beaver populations to decline, creating a negative feedback mechanism for beaver and willow. In contrast, if browsing by livestock or ungulates can be controlled, and beaver can disperse from a nearby source population, then beaver may build dams in marginal habitat which will benefit willow and cause a positive riparian response that restores proper function to degraded habitat. In a shrub-steppe riparian ecosystem of northwestern Colorado, USA, rest from overgrazing of livestock released herbaceous vegetation initiating restoration of a beaver-willow community. Thus, competition from livestock or ungulates can cause beaver and willow to decline and can prevent their restoration in heavily browsed riparian environments, but beaver and willow populations can recover under proper grazing management.

Temporal variation in survival and recovery rates of lesser scaup: A response

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arnold, Todd W.; Afton, Alan D.; Anteau, Michael J.; Koons, David N.; Nicolai, Chris A.

2017-01-01

We recently analyzed long-term (1951–2011) continental band-recovery data from lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) and demonstrated that harvest rates declined through time, but annual survival rates exhibited no such trends; moreover, annual harvest and survival rates were uncorrelated for all age-sex classes. We therefore concluded that declining fecundity was most likely responsible for recent population declines, rather than changes in harvest or survival. Lindberg et al. (2017) critiqued our conclusions, arguing that we did little more than fail to reject a null hypothesis of compensatory mortality, postulated ecologically unrealistic changes in fecundity, and failed to give sufficient consideration to additive harvest mortality. Herein, we re-summarize our original evidence indicating that harvest has been compensatory, or at most weakly additive, and demonstrate that our analysis had sufficient power to detect strongly additive mortality if it occurred. We further demonstrate that our conclusions were not confounded by population size, band loss, or individual heterogeneity, as suggested by Lindberg et al. (2017), and we provide additional support for our conjecture that low fecundity played a major role in declining scaup populations during 1983–2006. We therefore reiterate our original management recommendations: given low harvest rates and lack of demonstrable effect on scaup survival, harvest regulations could return to more liberal frameworks, and waterfowl biologists should work together to continue banding lesser scaup and use these data to explore alternative hypotheses to identify the true ecological causes of population change, given that it is unlikely to be excessive harvest. 

Geographic variation in density-dependent dynamics impacts the synchronizing effect of dispersal and regional stochasticity

Treesearch

Andrew M. Liebhold; Derek M. Johnson; Ottar N. Bj& #248rnstad

2006-01-01

Explanations for the ubiquitous presence of spatially synchronous population dynamics have assumed that density-dependent processes governing the dynamics of local populations are identical among disjunct populations, and low levels of dispersal or small amounts of regionalized stochasticity ("Moran effect") can act to synchronize populations. In this study...

Ground-water flow and water quality in the sand aquifer of Long Beach Peninsula, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, B.E.

1995-01-01

This report describes a study that was undertaken to improve the understanding of ground-water flow and water quality in the coastal sand aquifer of the Long Beach Peninsula of southwestern Washington. Data collected for the study include monthly water levels at 103 wells and 28 surface-water sites during 1992, and water-quality samples from about 40 wells and 13 surface-water sites in February and July 1992. Ground water generally flows at right angles to a ground-water divide along the spine of the low-lying peninsula. Historical water-level data indicate that there was no long-term decline in the water table from 1974 to 1992. The water quality of shallow ground water was generally good with a few local problems. Natural concentrations of dissolved iron were higher than 0.3 milligrams per liter in about one-third of the samples. The dissolved-solids concentrations were generally low, with a range of 56 to 218 milligrams per liter. No appreciable amount of seawater has intruded into the sand aquifer, chloride concentrations were low, with a maximum of 52 milligrams per liter. Agricultural activities do not appear to have significantly affected the quality of ground water. Concentrations of nutrients were low in the cranberry-growing areas, and selected pesticides were not found above the analytical detection limits. Septic systems probably caused an increase in the concentration of nitrate from medians of less than 0.05 milligrams per liter in areas of low population density to 0.74 milligrams per liter in areas of high density.

Prevalence of Low High-density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Among Adults, by Physical Activity: United States, 2011-2014.

PubMed

Zwald, Marissa L; Akinbami, Lara J; Fakhouri, Tala H I; Fryar, Chryl D

2017-03-01

Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey •The prevalence of low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol was significantly higher among adults who did not meet recommended physical activity guidelines (21.0%) than adults who met the guidelines (17.7%). •Low HDL cholesterol prevalence differed significantly for both men and women by adherence to physical activity guidelines. •Prevalence of low HDL cholesterol declined as age increased for both those who did and did not meet the physical activity guidelines. •Non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black adults who did not meet the physical activity guidelines had a higher prevalence than those who met the guidelines. •Low HDL cholesterol prevalence declined with increasing education level regardless of adherence to physical activity guidelines. Regular physical activity can improve cholesterol levels among adults, including increasing high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol (1). HDL cholesterol is known as "good" cholesterol because high levels can reduce cardiovascular disease risk (2). The 2008 Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans recommend that adults engage in 150 minutes or more of moderate-intensity aerobic activity per week, 75 minutes of vigorous-intensity aerobic activity per week, or an equivalent combination (3). Adherence to these guidelines is expected to decrease the prevalence of low HDL cholesterol levels (4-8). This report presents national data for 2011-2014 on low HDL cholesterol prevalence among U.S. adults aged 20 and over, by whether they met these guidelines. All material appearing in this report is in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied without permission; citation as to source, however, is appreciated.

Baird's tapir density in high elevation forests of the Talamanca region of Costa Rica.

PubMed

González-Maya, José F; Schipper, Jan; Polidoro, Beth; Hoepker, Annelie; Zárrate-Charry, Diego; Belant, Jerrold L

2012-12-01

Baird's tapir (Tapirus bairdii) is currently endangered throughout its neotropical range with an expected population decline >50% in the next 30 years. We present the first density estimation of Baird's tapir for the Talamanca mountains of Costa Rica, and one of the first for the country. Ten stations with paired cameras were established in Valle del Silencio within Parque Internacional La Amistad (PILA). Seventy-seven tapir pictures of 15 individuals comprising 25 capture-recapture events were analyzed using mark-recapture techniques. The 100% minimum convex polygon of the sampled area was 5.7 km(2) and the effective sampled area using half mean maximum distances moved by tapirs was 7.16 km(2) . We estimated a tapir density of 2.93 individuals/km(2) which represents the highest density reported for this species. Intermountain valleys can represent unique and important habitats for large mammal species. However, the extent of isolation of this population, potentially constrained by steep slopes of the cordillera, remains unknown. Further genetic and movement studies are required to understand meta-population dynamics and connectivity between lowland and highland areas for Baird's tapir conservation in Costa Rica. © 2012 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd, ISZS and IOZ/CAS.