A Snapshot of the Sun Near Solar Minimum: The Whole Heliosphere Interval

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, Barbara J.; Gibson, Sarah E.; Schroeder, Peter C.; Webb, David F.; Arge, Charles N.; Bisi, Mario M.; de Toma, Giuliana; Emery, Barbara A.; Galvin, Antoinette B.; Haber, Deborah A.;

Change in the radiative output of the Sun in 1992 and its effect in the thermosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

White, O. R.; Rottman, G. J.; Woods, T. N.; Knapp, B. G.; Keil, S. L.; Livingston, W. C.; Tapping, K. F.; Donnelly, R. F.; Puga, L. C.

1994-01-01

Ground and space measurements of the solar spectral irradiance at radio, visible, UV, and X ray wavelengths show a large decline in the first 6 months of 1992. This sustained drop in the solar output is important in understanding the connection between the emergent magnetic flux on the Sun and the radiative output as well as in understanding the effects of such change in the upper atmosphere of the earth. We present preliminary estimates of the observed changes as the means to spur inquiry into this solar event in the declining phase of solar cycle 22. Typical decreases are 15% in Lyman alpha and 40% in 10.7-cm radio flux. Mass spectrometer and incoherent scatter model calculations at 600 km in the thermosphere indicate a 30% decrease in the temperature and a 3X decrease in the density of the thermosphere near the altitude where both the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) and Hubble Space Telescope (HST) are flying. Decrease of the orbital period of the UARS shows the expected effect of decreasing density at flight altitude. Work in progress indicates that the output change results from the decline in solar magnetic flux to a lower level of activity in the southern hemisphere of the Sun.

Variations in Solar Parameters and Cosmic Rays with Solar Magnetic Polarity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oh, S.; Yi, Y., E-mail: suyeonoh@jnu.ac.kr

The sunspot number varies with the 11-year Schwabe cycle, and the solar magnetic polarity reverses every 11 years approximately at the solar maximum. Because of polarity reversal, the difference between odd and even solar cycles is seen in solar activity. In this study, we create the mean solar cycle expressed by phase using the monthly sunspot number for all solar cycles 1–23. We also generate the mean solar cycle for sunspot area, solar radio flux, and cosmic ray flux within the allowance of observational range. The mean solar cycle has one large peak at solar maximum for odd solar cyclesmore » and two small peaks for most even solar cycles. The odd and even solar cycles have the statistical difference in value and shape at a confidence level of at least 98%. For solar cycles 19–23, the second peak in the even solar cycle is larger than the first peak. This result is consistent with the frequent solar events during the declining phase after the solar maximum. The difference between odd and even solar cycles can be explained by a combined model of polarity reversal and solar rotation. In the positive/negative polarity, the polar magnetic field introduces angular momentum in the same/opposite direction as/to the solar rotation. Thus the addition/subtraction of angular momentum can increase/decrease the motion of plasma to support the formation of sunspots. Since the polarity reverses at the solar maximum, the opposite phenomenon occurs in the declining phase.« less

Solar Variability and the Decline of the Bubonic Plague

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

2001-10-01

The bubonic plague was responsible for the deaths of a very large percentage of the population of Europe in ancient times. Leaders of state made promises to “kill off” the plague, were all unsuccessful. It wasn’t the grand promise of a politician, or some new medicinal invention that was responsible for the final decline of the plague. It appears that a chain of events that began 93,000,000 miles away from Earth exerted an impact that lead to the end of the plague’s activity. Some simple changes in solar activity that began in the early 1300’s started the final to break the stranglehold that the plague had on most of Europe. This chain of events will be presented and discussed in this paper.

A New SATIRE-S Spectral Solar Irradiance Reconstruction for Solar Cycles 21-23 and Its Implications for Stratospheric Ozone*

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ball, William T.; Krivova, Natalie A.; Unruh, Yvonne C.; Haigh, Joanna D.; Solanki, Sami K.

2014-11-01

We present a revised and extended total and spectral solar irradiance (SSI) reconstruction, which includes a wavelength-dependent uncertainty estimate, spanning the last three solar cycles using the SATIRE-S model. The SSI reconstruction covers wavelengths between 115 and 160,000 nm and all dates between August 1974 and October 2009. This represents the first full-wavelength SATIRE-S reconstruction to cover the last three solar cycles without data gaps and with an uncertainty estimate. SATIRE-S is compared with the NRLSSI model and SORCE/SOLSTICE ultraviolet (UV) observations. SATIRE-S displays similar cycle behaviour to NRLSSI for wavelengths below 242 nm and almost twice the variability between 242 and 310 nm. During the decline of last solar cycle, between 2003 and 2008, SSI from SORCE/SOLSTICE version 12 and 10 typically displays more than three times the variability of SATIRE-S between 200 and 300 nm. All three datasets are used to model changes in stratospheric ozone within a 2D atmospheric model for a decline from high solar activity to solar minimum. The different flux changes result in different modelled ozone trends. Using NRLSSI leads to a decline in mesospheric ozone, while SATIRE-S and SORCE/SOLSTICE result in an increase. Recent publications have highlighted increases in mesospheric ozone when considering version 10 SORCE/SOLSTICE irradiances. The recalibrated SORCE/SOLSTICE version 12 irradiances result in a much smaller mesospheric ozone response than when using version 10 and now similar in magnitude to SATIRE-S. This shows that current knowledge of variations in spectral irradiance is not sufficient to warrant robust conclusions concerning the impact of solar variability on the atmosphere and climate.

Anomalous Surge of the White-Light Corona at the Onset of the Declining Phase of Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamy, P.; Boclet, B.; Wojak, J.; Vibert, D.

2017-04-01

In late 2014, when the current Solar Cycle 24 entered its declining phase, the white-light corona as observed by the LASCO-C2 coronagraph underwent an unexpected surge that increased its global radiance by 60%, reaching a peak value comparable to the peak values of the more active Solar Cycle 23. A comparison of the temporal variation of the white-light corona with the variations of several indices and proxies of solar activity indicate that it best matches the variation of the total magnetic field. The daily variations point to a localized enhancement or bulge in the electron density that persisted for several months. Carrington maps of the radiance and of the HMI photospheric field allow connecting this bulge to the emergence of the large sunspot complex AR 12192 in October 2014, the largest since AR 6368 observed in November 1990. The resulting unusually high increase of the magnetic field and the distortion of the neutral sheet in a characteristic inverse S-shape caused the coronal plasma to be trapped along a similar pattern. A 3D reconstruction of the electron density based on time-dependent solar rotational tomography supplemented by 2D inversion of the coronal radiance confirms the morphology of the bulge and reveals that its level was well above the standard models of a corona of the maximum type, by typically a factor of 3. A rather satisfactory agreement is found with the results of the thermodynamic MHD model produced by Predictive Sciences, although discrepancies are noted. The specific configuration of the magnetic field that led to the coronal surge resulted from the interplay of various factors prevailing at the onset of the declining phase of the solar cycles, which was particularly efficient in the case of Solar Cycle 24.

SSBUV and NOAA-11 SBUV/2 Solar Variability Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.; Hilsenrath, Ernest

1998-01-01

The Shuttle SBUV (SSBUV) and NOAA-11 SBUV/2 instruments measured solar spectral UV irradiance during the maximum and declining phase of solar cycle 22. The SSB UV data accurately represent the absolute solar UV irradiance between 200-405 nm, and also show the long-term variations during eight flights between October 1989 and January 1996. These data have been used to correct long-term sensitivity changes in the NOAA-11 SBUV/2 data, which provide a near-daily record of solar UV variations over the 170-400 nm region between December 1988 and October 1994. The NOAA-11 data demonstrate the evolution of short-term solar UV activity during solar cycle 22.

A survey of chromospheric Ca II H and K emission in field stars of the solar neighborhood

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vaughan, A. H.; Preston, G. W.

1980-01-01

Fluxes in 1 A bands at the centers of the H and K lines are being measured in main-sequence F-G-K-M stars in the northern half of the Woolley et al. (1970) 'Catalog of stars within twenty-five parsecs of the sun', in a survey not yet completed. Results for 486 stars are presented in the form of flux-color diagrams and discussed in light of evidence that chromospheric activity declines with age in main-sequence stars. Support is noted for the reality of the Sirius moving group. The relative numbers of more-active (Hyades-like) and less-active (solar-like) F-G stars are tolerably in agreement with a nearly constant rate of formation, but there exists an apparent deficiency in the number of F-G stars exhibiting intermediate activity. The possibility that the gap is an accidental characteristic of the sample will be investigated by extending the survey to southern declinations and greater distances.

Influence of Different Solar Drivers on the Winds in the Middle Atmosphere and on Geomagnetic Disturbances

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-05-18

number and intensity are highest in sunspot maximum. CME’s are considered the sources of the most intense geomagnetic storms (Gonzalez et al., 2002... storm . High speed solar wind The geomagnetic activity during the declining phase of the solar cycle can be even higher that at sunspot maximum. In...characteristic “calm before the storm ” – the decrease a couple of days before the maximum disturbance – in the case of high speed streams (Borovsky and

Intensity Variations of Narrow Bands of Solar UV Radiation during Descending Phases of SACs 21-23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gigolashvili, M.; Kapanadze, N.

2014-12-01

The study of variations of four narrow bands of solar spectral irradiance (SSI) in the ultraviolet (UV) range for period 1981-2008 is presented. Observational data obtained by space-flight missions SORCE, UARS, SME and daily meanings of international sunspot number (ISN) have been used. The investigated data cover the decreasing phases of the solar activity cycles (SACs) 21, 22 and 23. We have revealed a peculiar behavior of intensity variability of some solar ultraviolet spectral lines originated in the solar chromospheres for period corresponding to the declining phase of the solar cycle 23. It is found that variability of emission of different solar spectral narrow bands (289.5 nm, 300.5 nm) does not agree equally well with ISN variability during decreasing phase of the solar activity cycle 23. The negative correlations between total solar irradiance and the solar spectral narrow bands of UV emission (298.5 nm, 300.5 nm) had been revealed. The existence of the negative correlation can be explained by the sensitivity of SSI of some emission lines to the solar global magnetic field.

The 1973 solar occultation of the Crab Nebula pulsar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weisberg, J. M.

1975-01-01

The mean electron density of the solar corona was determined by measuring the dispersion of radiofrequency pulses from pulsar NP 0532 during the June 1973 solar occultation. Trends continued which were noticed in 1971 as solar activity declined. Model fitting results suggest that the corona continued to become even more concentrated toward the equator in 1973 than in 1971. The number density of electrons in most regions decreased. The best model of the distribution of corona electrons is suggested to be one with zero density at the poles. K-corona isophotes and contours of equal path-integrated density are presented for several models. Electron density versus date and position in the corona are tabulated. It is seen that there is no simple relationship between the onset of major solar activity and density or scattering enhancements.

Spectral solar UV irradiance data for cycle 21

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.

2001-10-01

The Nimbus 7 Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument, which began taking data in November 1978, was the first instrument to make solar UV irradiance measurements covering both the minimum and maximum activity levels of a solar cycle. The currently archived irradiance data set was processed with an instrument characterization which fails to completely account for sensor degradation in the later part of the data record, thus limiting the accuracy of estimated long-term solar activity variations and the scientific value of the data. In this paper, we describe an improved Nimbus 7 SBUV spectral irradiance data set, which utilizes a more accurate model for instrument sensitivity and treats other time-dependent problems in the archived data. Estimated long-term irradiance changes during solar cycle 21 are 8.3(+/-2.6%) at 205 nm, and 4.9(+/-1.8)% at 240 nm. The revised Nimbus 7 SBUV irradiance data are in good agreement with predictions of solar cycle variations from the Mg II index proxy model. These solar irradiance changes are also consistent with overlapping irradiance data from the declining phase of solar cycle 21 measured by the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME). The Nimbus 7 SBUV irradiance data represent the earliest component of a 20+ year continuous record of solar spectral UV activity.

Spring-fall asymmetry of substorm strength, geomagnetic activity and solar wind: Implications for semiannual variation and solar hemispheric asymmetry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marsula, K.; Tanskanen, E.; Love, J.J.

2011-01-01

We study the seasonal variation of substorms, geomagnetic activity and their solar wind drivers in 1993–2008. The number of substorms and substorm mean duration depict an annual variation with maxima in Winter and Summer, respectively, reflecting the annual change of the local ionosphere. In contradiction, substorm mean amplitude, substorm total efficiency and global geomagnetic activity show a dominant annual variation, with equinoctial maxima alternating between Spring in solar cycle 22 and Fall in cycle 23. The largest annual variations were found in 1994 and 2003, in the declining phase of the two cycles when high-speed streams dominate the solar wind. A similar, large annual variation is found in the solar wind driver of substorms and geomagnetic activity, which implies that the annual variation of substorm strength, substorm efficiency and geomagnetic activity is not due to ionospheric conditions but to a hemispherically asymmetric distribution of solar wind which varies from one cycle to another. Our results imply that the overall semiannual variation in global geomagnetic activity has been seriously overestimated, and is largely an artifact of the dominant annual variation with maxima alternating between Spring and Fall. The results also suggest an intimate connection between the asymmetry of solar magnetic fields and some of the largest geomagnetic disturbances, offering interesting new pathways for forecasting disturbances with a longer lead time to the future.

Anomalous Surge of the White-Light Corona at the Onset of the Declining Phase of Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamy, P.

2017-12-01

In late 2014, when the current solar cycle 24 was initiating its declining phase, the white-light corona as observed by the LASCO-C2 coronagraph underwent an unexpected surge that increased its global radiance by 60%, reaching a peak value comparable to those of the more active solar cycle 23. The daily variations point to a localized enhancement or bulge in the electron density that persisted during several months. Carrington maps of the radiance and of the HMI photospheric field allow connecting this bulge to the emergence of the large sunspot complex AR 12192 in October 2014, the largest since AR 6368 observed in November 1990. The resulting unusually large increase of the magnetic field and the distortion of the neutral sheet in a characteristic inverse S-shape caused the coronal plasma to be trapped along a similar pattern. Three-dimensional reconstruction of the electron density based on time-dependent solar rotational tomography supplemented by 2D inversion of the coronal radiance confirms the morphology of the bulge and reveals that its level was well above the standard models of a corona of the maximum type, by typically a factor of 3. A rather satisfactory agreement is found with the results of the thermodynamic MHD model produced by Predictive Sciences although discrepancies are noted. The specific configuration of the magnetic field that led to the coronal surge resulted from the interplay of various factors prevailing at the onset of the declining phase of the solar cycles which was particularly efficient in the case of solar cycle 24.

Are whooping cranes destined for extinction? Climate change imperils recruitment and population growth.

PubMed

Butler, Matthew J; Metzger, Kristine L; Harris, Grant M

2017-04-01

Identifying climatic drivers of an animal population's vital rates and locating where they operate steers conservation efforts to optimize species recovery. The population growth of endangered whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) hinges on juvenile recruitment. Therefore, we identify climatic drivers (solar activity [sunspots] and weather) of whooping crane recruitment throughout the species' life cycle (breeding, migration, wintering). Our method uses a repeated cross-validated absolute shrinkage and selection operator approach to identify drivers of recruitment. We model effects of climate change on those drivers to predict whooping crane population growth given alternative scenarios of climate change and solar activity. Years with fewer sunspots indicated greater recruitment. Increased precipitation during autumn migration signified less recruitment. On the breeding grounds, fewer days below freezing during winter and more precipitation during breeding suggested less recruitment. We predicted whooping crane recruitment and population growth may fall below long-term averages during all solar cycles when atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases, as expected, to 500 ppm by 2050. Species recovery during a typical solar cycle with 500 ppm may require eight times longer than conditions without climate change and the chance of population decline increases to 31%. Although this whooping crane population is growing and may appear secure, long-term threats imposed by climate change and increased solar activity may jeopardize its persistence. Weather on the breeding grounds likely affects recruitment through hydrological processes and predation risk, whereas precipitation during autumn migration may influence juvenile mortality. Mitigating threats or abating climate change should occur within ≈30 years or this wild population of whooping cranes may begin declining.

DMSP Auroral Charging at Solar Cycle 24 Maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandler, M.; Parker, L. Neergaard; Minow, J. I.

2013-01-01

It has been well established that polar orbiting satellites can experience mild to severe auroral charging levels (on the order of a few hundred volts to few kilovolts negative frame potentials) during solar minimum conditions. These same studies have shown a strong reduction in charging during the rising and declining phases of the past few solar cycles with a nearly complete suppression of auroral charging at solar maximum. Recently, we have observed examples of high level charging during the recent approach to Solar Cycle 24 solar maximum conditions not unlike those reported by Frooninckx and Sojka. These observations demonstrate that spacecraft operations during solar maximum cannot be considered safe from auroral charging when solar activity is low. We present a survey of auroral charging events experienced by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F16 satellite during Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions. We summarize the auroral energetic particle environment and the conditions necessary for charging to occur in this environment, we describe how the lower than normal solar activity levels for Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions are conducive to charging in polar orbits, and we show examples of the more extreme charging events, sometimes exceeding 1 kV, during this time period.

Observed Reduction In Surface Solar Radiation - Aerosol Forcing Versus Cloud Feedback?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liepert, B.

The solar radiation reaching the ground is a key parameter for the climate system. It drives the hydrological cycle and numerous biological processes. Surface solar radi- ation revealed an estimated 7W/m2 or 4% decline at sites worldwide from 1961 to 1990. The strongest decline occurred at the United States sites with 19W/m2 or 10%. Increasing air pollution and hence direct and indirect aerosol effect, as we know today can only explain part of the reduction in solar radiation. Increasing cloud optical thick- ness - possibly due to global warming - is a more likely explanation for the observed reduction in solar radiation in the United States. The analysis of surface solar radiation data will be shown and compared with GCM results of the direct and indirect aerosol effect. It will be argued that the residual declines in surface solar radiation is likely due to cloud feedback.

Seasonal Variation of High-Latitude Geomagnetic Activity in Individual Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanskanen, E. I.; Hynönen, R.; Mursula, K.

2017-10-01

We study the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity in individual years in 1966-2014 (solar cycles 20-24) by identifying the most active and the second most active season based on westward electrojet indices AL (1966-2014) and IL (1995-2014). The annual maximum is found at either equinox in two thirds and at either solstice in one third of the years examined. The traditional two-equinox maximum pattern is found in roughly one fourth of the years. We found that the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity closely follows the solar wind speed. While the mechanisms leading to the two-equinox maxima pattern are in operation, the long-term change of solar wind speed tends to mask the effect of these mechanisms for individual years. Large cycle-to-cycle variation is found in the seasonal pattern: equinox maxima are more common during cycles 21 and 22 than in cycles 23 or 24. Exceptionally long winter dominance in high-latitude activity and solar wind speed is seen in the declining phase of cycle 23, after the appearance of the long-lasting low-latitude coronal hole.

Spring-fall asymmetry of substorm strength, geomagnetic activity and solar wind: Implications for semiannual variation and solar hemispheric asymmetry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mursula, K.; Tanskanen, E.; Love, J.J.

2011-01-01

We study the seasonal variation of substorms, geomagnetic activity and their solar wind drivers in 1993-2008. The number of substorms and substorm mean duration depict an annual variation with maxima in Winter and Summer, respectively, reflecting the annual change of the local ionosphere. In contradiction, substorm mean amplitude, substorm total efficiency and global geomagnetic activity show a dominant annual variation, with equinoctial maxima alternating between Spring in solar cycle 22 and Fall in cycle 23. The largest annual variations were found in 1994 and 2003, in the declining phase of the two cycles when high-speed streams dominate the solar wind. A similar, large annual variation is found in the solar wind driver of substorms and geomagnetic activity, which implies that the annual variation of substorm strength, substorm efficiency and geomagnetic activity is not due to ionospheric conditions but to a hemispherically asymmetric distribution of solar wind which varies from one cycle to another. Our results imply that the overall semiannual variation in global geomagnetic activity has been seriously overestimated, and is largely an artifact of the dominant annual variation with maxima alternating between Spring and Fall. The results also suggest an intimate connection between the asymmetry of solar magnetic fields and some of the largest geomagnetic disturbances, offering interesting new pathways for forecasting disturbances with a longer lead time to the future. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Seasonal Variation of High-latitude Geomagnetic Activity Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanskanen, E.; Hynönen, R.; Mursula, K.

2017-12-01

The coupling of the solar wind and auroral region has been examined by using westward electrojet indices since 1966 - 2014. We have studied the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity in individual years for solar cycles 20 - 24. The classical two-equinox activity pattern in geomagnetic activity was seen in multi-year averages but it was found in less than one third of the years examined. We found that the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity closely follows the solar wind speed. While the mechanisms leading to the two-equinox maxima pattern are in operation, the long-term change of solar wind speed tends to mask the effect of these mechanisms for individual years. We identified the most active and the second most active season based on westward electrojet indices AL (1966 - 2014) and IL (1995 - 2014). The annual maximum is found at either equinox in 2/3 and at either solstice in 1/3 of the years examined. Large cycle-to-cycle variation is found in the seasonal pattern: equinox maxima are more common during cycles 21 and 22 than in cycles 23 or 24. An exceptionally long winter dominance in high-latitude activity and solar wind speed is seen in the declining phase of cycle 23, after the appearance of the long-lasting low-latitude coronal hole.

Critical frequencies of the ionospheric F1 and F2 layers during the last four solar cycles: Sunspot group type dependencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yiǧit, Erdal; Kilcik, Ali; Elias, Ana Georgina; Dönmez, Burçin; Ozguc, Atila; Yurchshyn, Vasyl; Rozelot, Jean-Pierre

2018-06-01

The long term solar activity dependencies of ionospheric F1 and F2 regions' critical frequencies (f0F1 and f0F2) are analyzed for the last four solar cycles (1976-2015). We show that the ionospheric F1 and F2 regions have different solar activity dependencies in terms of the sunspot group (SG) numbers: F1 region critical frequency (f0F1) peaks at the same time with the small SG numbers, while the f0F2 reaches its maximum at the same time with the large SG numbers, especially during the solar cycle 23. The observed differences in the sensitivity of ionospheric critical frequencies to sunspot group (SG) numbers provide a new insight into the solar activity effects on the ionosphere and space weather. While the F1 layer is influenced by the slow solar wind, which is largely associated with small SGs, the ionospheric F2 layer is more sensitive to Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and fast solar winds, which are mainly produced by large SGs and coronal holes. The SG numbers maximize during of peak of the solar cycle and the number of coronal holes peaks during the sunspot declining phase. During solar minimum there are relatively less large SGs, hence reduced CME and flare activity. These results provide a new perspective for assessing how the different regions of the ionosphere respond to space weather effects.

North south asymmetry in the coronal and photospheric magnetic fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virtanen, I.; Mursula, K.

2013-12-01

Several recent studies have shown that the Heliospheric current sheet (HCS) is southward shifted during about three years in the solar declining phase (the so-called bashful ballerina phenomenon). We study the hemispherical asymmetry in the photospheric and coronal magnetic fields using Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO) measurements of the photospheric magnetic field since 1976 and the potential field source surface (PFSS) model. Multipole analysis of the photospheric magnetic field shows that during the late declining phase of solar cycles since 1970s, bashful ballerina phenomenon is a consequence of g02 quadrupole term, signed oppositely to the dipole moment. Surges of new flux transport magnetic field from low latitudes to the poles, thus leading to a systematically varying contribution to the g02-term from different latitudes. In the case of a north-south asymmetric flux production this is seen as a quadrupole contribution traveling towards higher latitudes. When the quadrupole term is largest the main contribution comes from the polar latitudes. At least during the four recent solar cycles the g02-term arises because the magnitude of the southern polar field is larger than in the north in the declining phase of the cycle. Magnetic flux is transported polewards by the meridional flow and it is most likely that besides the north-south asymmetric production of the magnetic flux, also the asymmetric transportation may significantly contribute to the observed asymmetry of polar field intensities. The overall activity during solar cycle is not significantly different in the northern and southern hemispheres, but hemispheres tend to develop in a different phase.

Solar Wind Features Responsible for Magnetic Storms and Substorms During the Declining Phase of the Solar Cycle: 197

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsurutani, B.; Arballo, J.

1994-01-01

We examine interplanetary data and geomagnetic activity indices during 1974 when two long-lasting solar wind corotating streams existed. We find that only 3 major storms occurred during 1974, and all were associated with coronal mass ejections. Each high speed stream was led by a shock, so the three storms had sudden commencements. Two of the 1974 major storms were associated with shock compression of preexisting southward fields and one was caused by southward fields within a magnetic cloud. Corotating streams were responsible for recurring moderate to weak magnetic storms.

Studies of the Solar Radiations' Influence About Geomembranes Used in Ecological Landfill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasiluta, Petre; Cofaru, Ileana Ioana; Cofaru, Nicolae Florin; Popa, Dragos Laurentiu

2017-12-01

The study shown in this paper presents the behavior of geomembranes used at the ecological landfills. The influences of the solar radiations has a great importance regarding the correct mounting of the geomembranes. The mathematical model developed for the determination anytime and anywhere in the world for the next values and parameters: apparent solar time, solar declination, solar altitude, solar azimuth and incidence angle, zone angle, angle of sun elevation, solar declination, solar constant, solar flux density, diffuse solar radiation, global radiation, soil albedo, total radiant flux density and relational links of these values. The results of this model was used for creations an AutoCAD subroutines useful for choosing the correct time for correct mounting anywhere of the geomembranes

Solar Activity Heading for a Maunder Minimum?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schatten, K. H.; Tobiska, W. K.

2003-05-01

Long-range (few years to decades) solar activity prediction techniques vary greatly in their methods. They range from examining planetary orbits, to spectral analyses (e.g. Fourier, wavelet and spectral analyses), to artificial intelligence methods, to simply using general statistical techniques. Rather than concentrate on statistical/mathematical/numerical methods, we discuss a class of methods which appears to have a "physical basis." Not only does it have a physical basis, but this basis is rooted in both "basic" physics (dynamo theory), but also solar physics (Babcock dynamo theory). The class we discuss is referred to as "precursor methods," originally developed by Ohl, Brown and Williams and others, using geomagnetic observations. My colleagues and I have developed some understanding for how these methods work and have expanded the prediction methods using "solar dynamo precursor" methods, notably a "SODA" index (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude). These methods are now based upon an understanding of the Sun's dynamo processes- to explain a connection between how the Sun's fields are generated and how the Sun broadcasts its future activity levels to Earth. This has led to better monitoring of the Sun's dynamo fields and is leading to more accurate prediction techniques. Related to the Sun's polar and toroidal magnetic fields, we explain how these methods work, past predictions, the current cycle, and predictions of future of solar activity levels for the next few solar cycles. The surprising result of these long-range predictions is a rapid decline in solar activity, starting with cycle #24. If this trend continues, we may see the Sun heading towards a "Maunder" type of solar activity minimum - an extensive period of reduced levels of solar activity. For the solar physicists, who enjoy studying solar activity, we hope this isn't so, but for NASA, which must place and maintain satellites in low earth orbit (LEO), it may help with reboost problems. Space debris, and other aspects of objects in LEO will also be affected. This research is supported by the NSF and NASA.

Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity in the Upcoming Minimum of the Solar Activity Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krainev, M. B.; Bazilevskaya, G. A.; Kalinin, M. S.; Svirzhevskaya, A. K.; Svirzhevskii, N. S.

2018-03-01

During the prolonged and deep minimum of solar activity between cycles 23 and 24, an unusual behavior of the heliospheric characteristics and increased intensity of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) near the Earth's orbit were observed. The maximum of the current solar cycle 24 is lower than the previous one, and the decline in solar and, therefore, heliospheric activity is expected to continue in the next cycle. In these conditions, it is important for an understanding of the process of GCR modulation in the heliosphere, as well as for applied purposes (evaluation of the radiation safety of planned space flights, etc.), to estimate quantitatively the possible GCR characteristics near the Earth in the upcoming solar minimum ( 2019-2020). Our estimation is based on the prediction of the heliospheric characteristics that are important for cosmic ray modulation, as well as on numeric calculations of GCR intensity. Additionally, we consider the distribution of the intensity and other GCR characteristics in the heliosphere and discuss the intercycle variations in the GCR characteristics that are integral for the whole heliosphere (total energy, mean energy, and charge).

Responses of the lower thermospheric temperature to the 9 day and 13.5 day oscillations of recurrent geomagnetic activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Guoying; Wang, Wenbin; Xu, Jiyao; Yue, Jia; Burns, Alan G.; Lei, Jiuhou; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Rusell, James M., III

2015-04-01

Responses of the lower thermospheric temperature to the 9 day and 13.5 day oscillations of recurrent geomagnetic activity and solar EUV radiation have been investigated using neutral temperature data observed by the TIMED/SABER (Thermosphere IonosphereMesosphere Energetics and Dynamics/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry) instrument and numerical experiments by the NCAR-TIME-GCM (National Center for Atmospheric Research-thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics-general circulation model). The TIMED/SABER data analyzed were for the period from 2002 to 2007 during the declining phase of solar cycle 23. The observations show that the zonal mean temperature in the lower thermosphere oscillated with periods of near 9 and 13.5 days in the height range of 100-120 km. These oscillations were more strongly correlated with the recurrent geomagnetic activity than with the solar EUV variability of the same periods. The 9 day and 13.5 day oscillations of lower thermospheric temperature had greater amplitudes at high latitudes than at low latitudes; they also had larger amplitudes at higher altitudes, and the oscillations could penetrate down to ~105 km, depending on the strength of the recurrent geomagnetic activity for a particular time period. The data further show that the periodic responses of the lower thermospheric temperature to recurrent geomagnetic activity were different in the two hemispheres. In addition, numerical experiments have been carried out using the NCAR-TIME-GCM to investigate the causal relationship between the temperature oscillations and the geomagnetic activity and solar EUV variations of the same periods. Model simulations showed the same periodic oscillations as those seen in the observations when the real geomagnetic activity index, Kp, was used to drive the model. These numerical results show that recurrent geomagnetic activity is the main cause of the 9 day and 13.5 day variations in the lower thermosphere temperature, and the contribution from solar EUV variations is minor. Furthermore, we also found that consecutive coronal mass ejection events could cause long-duration enhancements in the lower thermospheric temperature that strengthen the 9 day and 13.5 day signals, and this kind of phenomenon mostly occurred between 2002 and 2005 during the declining phase of solar cycle 23.

Responses of the lower thermospheric temperature to the 9 day and 13.5 day oscillations of recurrent geomagnetic activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Guoying; Wang, Wenbin; Xu, Jiyao; Yue, Jia; Burns, Alan G.; Lei, Jiuhou; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Rusell, James M.

2014-06-01

Responses of the lower thermospheric temperature to the 9 day and 13.5 day oscillations of recurrent geomagnetic activity and solar EUV radiation have been investigated using neutral temperature data observed by the TIMED/SABER (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry) instrument and numerical experiments by the NCAR-TIME-GCM (National Center for Atmospheric Research-thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics-general circulation model). The TIMED/SABER data analyzed were for the period from 2002 to 2007 during the declining phase of solar cycle 23. The observations show that the zonal mean temperature in the lower thermosphere oscillated with periods of near 9 and 13.5 days in the height range of 100-120 km. These oscillations were more strongly correlated with the recurrent geomagnetic activity than with the solar EUV variability of the same periods. The 9 day and 13.5 day oscillations of lower thermospheric temperature had greater amplitudes at high latitudes than at low latitudes; they also had larger amplitudes at higher altitudes, and the oscillations could penetrate down to 105 km, depending on the strength of the recurrent geomagnetic activity for a particular time period. The data further show that the periodic responses of the lower thermospheric temperature to recurrent geomagnetic activity were different in the two hemispheres. In addition, numerical experiments have been carried out using the NCAR-TIME-GCM to investigate the causal relationship between the temperature oscillations and the geomagnetic activity and solar EUV variations of the same periods. Model simulations showed the same periodic oscillations as those seen in the observations when the real geomagnetic activity index, Kp, was used to drive the model. These numerical results show that recurrent geomagnetic activity is the main cause of the 9 day and 13.5 day variations in the lower thermosphere temperature, and the contribution from solar EUV variations is minor. Furthermore, we also found that consecutive coronal mass ejection events could cause long-duration enhancements in the lower thermospheric temperature that strengthen the 9 day and 13.5 day signals, and this kind of phenomenon mostly occurred between 2002 and 2005 during the declining phase of solar cycle 23.

DMSP Auroral Charging at Solar Cycle 24 Maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandler, Michael; Parker, Linda Neergaard; Minow, Joseph I.

2013-01-01

It has been well established that polar orbiting satellites can experience mild to severe auroral charging levels (on the order of a few hundred volts to few kilovolts negative frame potentials) during solar minimum conditions (Frooninckx and Sojka, 1992; Anderson and Koons, 1996; Anderson, 2012). These same studies have shown a strong reduction in charging during the rising and declining phases of the past few solar cycles with a nearly complete suppression of auroral charging at solar maximum. Recently, we have observed examples of high level charging during the recent approach to Solar Cycle 24 solar maximum conditions not unlike those reported by Frooninckx and Sojka (1992). These observations demonstrate that spacecraft operations during solar maximum cannot be considered safe from auroral charging when solar activity is low. We present a survey of auroral charging events experienced by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F16 satellite during Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions. We summarize the auroral energetic particle environment and the conditions necessary for charging to occur in this environment, we describe how the lower than normal solar activity levels for Solar Cycle 24 maximum conditions are conducive to charging in polar orbits, and we show examples of the more extreme charging events, sometimes exceeding 1 kV, during this time period.

Variability of ionospheric TEC during solar and geomagnetic minima (2008 and 2009): external high speed stream drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Tsurutani, B. T.; Mannucci, A. J.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Hunt, L. A.; Runge, T.

2013-02-01

We study solar wind-ionosphere coupling through the late declining phase/solar minimum and geomagnetic minimum phases during the last solar cycle (SC23) - 2008 and 2009. This interval was characterized by sequences of high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs). The concomitant geomagnetic response was moderate geomagnetic storms and high-intensity, long-duration continuous auroral activity (HILDCAA) events. The JPL Global Ionospheric Map (GIM) software and the GPS total electron content (TEC) database were used to calculate the vertical TEC (VTEC) and estimate daily averaged values in separate latitude and local time ranges. Our results show distinct low- and mid-latitude VTEC responses to HSSs during this interval, with the low-latitude daytime daily averaged values increasing by up to 33 TECU (annual average of ~20 TECU) near local noon (12:00 to 14:00 LT) in 2008. In 2009 during the minimum geomagnetic activity (MGA) interval, the response to HSSs was a maximum of ~30 TECU increases with a slightly lower average value than in 2008. There was a weak nighttime ionospheric response to the HSSs. A well-studied solar cycle declining phase interval, 10-22 October 2003, was analyzed for comparative purposes, with daytime low-latitude VTEC peak values of up to ~58 TECU (event average of ~55 TECU). The ionospheric VTEC changes during 2008-2009 were similar but ~60% less intense on average. There is an evidence of correlations of filtered daily averaged VTEC data with Ap index and solar wind speed. We use the infrared NO and CO2 emission data obtained with SABER on TIMED as a proxy for the radiation balance of the thermosphere. It is shown that infrared emissions increase during HSS events possibly due to increased energy input into the auroral region associated with HILDCAAs. The 2008-2009 HSS intervals were ~85% less intense than the 2003 early declining phase event, with annual averages of daily infrared NO emission power of ~ 3.3 × 1010 W and 2.7 × 1010 W in 2008 and 2009, respectively. The roles of disturbance dynamos caused by high-latitude winds (due to particle precipitation and Joule heating in the auroral zones) and of prompt penetrating electric fields (PPEFs) in the solar wind-ionosphere coupling during these intervals are discussed. A correlation between geoeffective interplanetary electric field components and HSS intervals is shown. Both PPEF and disturbance dynamo mechanisms could play important roles in solar wind-ionosphere coupling during prolonged (up to days) external driving within HILDCAA intervals.

A survey of solar wind conditions at 5 AU: A tool for interpreting solar wind-magnetosphere interactions at Jupiter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebert, Robert; Bagenal, Fran; McComas, David; Fowler, Christopher

2014-09-01

We examine Ulysses solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) observations at 5 AU for two ~13 month intervals during the rising and declining phases of solar cycle 23 and the predicted response of the Jovian magnetosphere during these times. The declining phase solar wind, composed primarily of corotating interaction regions and high-speed streams, was, on average, faster, hotter, less dense, and more Alfvénic relative to the rising phase solar wind, composed mainly of slow wind and interplanetary coronal mass ejections. Interestingly, none of solar wind and IMF distributions reported here were bimodal, a feature used to explain the bimodal distribution of bow shock and magnetopause standoff distances observed at Jupiter. Instead, many of these distributions had extended, non-Gaussian tails that resulted in large standard deviations and much larger mean over median values. The distribution of predicted Jupiter bow shock and magnetopause standoff distances during these intervals were also not bimodal, the mean/median values being larger during the declining phase by ~1 - 4%. These results provide data-derived solar wind and IMF boundary conditions at 5 AU for models aimed at studying solar wind-magnetosphere interactions at Jupiter and can support the science investigations of upcoming Jupiter system missions. Here, we provide expectations for Juno, which is scheduled to arrive at Jupiter in July 2016. Accounting for the long-term decline in solar wind dynamic pressure reported by McComas et al. (2013), Jupiter’s bow shock and magnetopause is expected to be at least 8 - 12% further from Jupiter, if these trends continue.

Predicting Solar Cycle 24 Using a Geomagnetic Precursor Pair

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, W. Dean

2014-01-01

We describe using Ap and F(10.7) as a geomagnetic-precursor pair to predict the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24. The precursor is created by using F(10.7) to remove the direct solar-activity component of Ap. Four peaks are seen in the precursor function during the decline of Solar Cycle 23. A recurrence index that is generated by a local correlation of Ap is then used to determine which peak is the correct precursor. The earliest peak is the most prominent but coincides with high levels of non-recurrent solar activity associated with the intense solar activity of October and November 2003. The second and third peaks coincide with some recurrent activity on the Sun and show that a weak cycle precursor closely following a period of strong solar activity may be difficult to resolve. A fourth peak, which appears in early 2008 and has recurrent activity similar to precursors of earlier solar cycles, appears to be the "true" precursor peak for Solar Cycle 24 and predicts the smallest amplitude for Solar Cycle 24. To determine the timing of peak activity it is noted that the average time between the precursor peak and the following maximum is approximately equal to 6.4 years. Hence, Solar Cycle 24 would peak during 2014. Several effects contribute to the smaller prediction when compared with other geomagnetic-precursor predictions. During Solar Cycle 23 the correlation between sunspot number and F(10.7) shows that F(10.7) is higher than the equivalent sunspot number over most of the cycle, implying that the sunspot number underestimates the solar-activity component described by F(10.7). During 2003 the correlation between aa and Ap shows that aa is 10 % higher than the value predicted from Ap, leading to an overestimate of the aa precursor for that year. However, the most important difference is the lack of recurrent activity in the first three peaks and the presence of significant recurrent activity in the fourth. While the prediction is for an amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 of 65 +/- 20 in smoothed sunspot number, a below-average amplitude for Solar Cycle 24, with maximum at 2014.5+/-0.5, we conclude that Solar Cycle 24 will be no stronger than average and could be much weaker than average.

Secular trends in storm-level geomagnetic activity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, J.J.

2011-01-01

Analysis is made of K-index data from groups of ground-based geomagnetic observatories in Germany, Britain, and Australia, 1868.0-2009.0, solar cycles 11-23. Methods include nonparametric measures of trends and statistical significance used by the hydrological and climatological research communities. Among the three observatory groups, German K data systematically record the highest disturbance levels, followed by the British and, then, the Australian data. Signals consistently seen in K data from all three observatory groups can be reasonably interpreted as physically meaninginful: (1) geomagnetic activity has generally increased over the past 141 years. However, the detailed secular evolution of geomagnetic activity is not well characterized by either a linear trend nor, even, a monotonic trend. Therefore, simple, phenomenological extrapolations of past trends in solar and geomagnetic activity levels are unlikely to be useful for making quantitative predictions of future trends lasting longer than a solar cycle or so. (2) The well-known tendency for magnetic storms to occur during the declining phase of a sunspot-solar cycles is clearly seen for cycles 14-23; it is not, however, clearly seen for cycles 11-13. Therefore, in addition to an increase in geomagnetic activity, the nature of solar-terrestrial interaction has also apparently changed over the past 141 years. ?? Author(s) 2011.

Strong Solar Control of Infrared Aurora on Jupiter: Correlation Since the Last Solar Maximum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kostiuk, T.; Livengood, T. A.; Hewagama, T.

2009-01-01

Polar aurorae in Jupiter's atmosphere radiate throughout the electromagnetic spectrum from X ray through mid-infrared (mid-IR, 5 - 20 micron wavelength). Voyager IRIS data and ground-based spectroscopic measurements of Jupiter's northern mid-IR aurora, acquired since 1982, reveal a correlation between auroral brightness and solar activity that has not been observed in Jovian aurora at other wavelengths. Over nearly three solar cycles, Jupiter auroral ethane emission brightness and solar 10.7 cm radio flux and sunspot number are positively correlated with high confidence. Ethane line emission intensity varies over tenfold between low and high solar activity periods. Detailed measurements have been made using the GSFC HIPWAC spectrometer at the NASA IRTF since the last solar maximum, following the mid-IR emission through the declining phase toward solar minimum. An even more convincing correlation with solar activity is evident in these data. Current analyses of these results will be described, including planned measurements on polar ethane line emission scheduled through the rise of the next solar maximum beginning in 2009, with a steep gradient to a maximum in 2012. This work is relevant to the Juno mission and to the development of the Europa Jupiter System Mission. Results of observations at the Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) operated by the University of Hawaii under Cooperative Agreement no. NCC5-538 with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Science Mission Directorate, Planetary Astronomy Program. This work was supported by the NASA Planetary Astronomy Program.

Solar on the Rise: How Cost Declines and Grid Integration Shape Solar's Growth Potential in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley J; Denholm, Paul L; Feldman, David J

During the past decade, solar power has experienced transformative price declines, enabling it to become a viable electricity source that is supplying 1% of U.S. and world electricity. Further cost reductions are expected to enable substantially greater solar deployment, and new Department of Energy cost targets for utility-scale photovoltaics (PV) and concentrating solar thermal power are $0.03/kW h and $0.05/kW h by 2030, respectively. However, cost reductions are no longer the only significant challenge for PV - addressing grid integration challenges and increasing grid flexibility are critical as the penetration of PV electricity on the grid increases. The development ofmore » low cost energy storage is particularly synergistic with low cost PV, as cost declines in each technology are expected to support greater market opportunities for the other.« less

SHEDDING LIGHT ON CORALS HEALTH: INTERACTIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND SOLAR RADIATION WITH BLEACHING

EPA Science Inventory

Coral bleaching and declines in coral reef health in recent years have been attributed in part to processes driven by UV and/or visible light. For coral assemblages, exposure to UV light is often an unavoidable consequence of having access to visible (photosynthetically active) ...

Implications of solar irradiance variability upon long-term changes in the Earth's atmospheric temperatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Robert B., III

1992-01-01

From 1979 through 1987, it is believed that variability in the incoming solar energy played a significant role in changing the Earth's climate. Using high-precision spacecraft radiometric measurements, the incoming total solar irradiance (total amount of solar power per unit area) and the Earth's mean, global atmospheric temperatures were found to vary in phase with each other. The observed irradiance and temperature changes appeared to be correlated with the 11-year cycle of solar magnetic activity. During the period from 1979 through 1985, both the irradiance and temperature decreased. From 1985 to 1987, they increased. The irradiance changed approximately 0.1 percent, while the temperature varied as much as 0.6 C. During the 1979-1987 period, the temperatures were forecasted to rise linearly because of the anthropogenic build-up of carbon dioxide and the hypothesized 'global warming', 'greenhouse effect', scenarios. Contrary to these scenarios, the temperatures were found to vary in a periodic manner in phase with the solar irradiance changes. The observed correlations between irradiance and temperature variabilily suggest that the mean, global temperature of the Earth may decline between 1990 and 1997 as solar magnetic activity decreases.

Solar origins of solar wind properties during the cycle 23 solar minimum and rising phase of cycle 24

PubMed Central

Luhmann, Janet G.; Petrie, Gordon; Riley, Pete

2012-01-01

The solar wind was originally envisioned using a simple dipolar corona/polar coronal hole sources picture, but modern observations and models, together with the recent unusual solar cycle minimum, have demonstrated the limitations of this picture. The solar surface fields in both polar and low-to-mid-latitude active region zones routinely produce coronal magnetic fields and related solar wind sources much more complex than a dipole. This makes low-to-mid latitude coronal holes and their associated streamer boundaries major contributors to what is observed in the ecliptic and affects the Earth. In this paper we use magnetogram-based coronal field models to describe the conditions that prevailed in the corona from the decline of cycle 23 into the rising phase of cycle 24. The results emphasize the need for adopting new views of what is ‘typical’ solar wind, even when the Sun is relatively inactive. PMID:25685422

Coronal and heliospheric magnetic flux circulation and its relation to open solar flux evolution

PubMed Central

Owens, Mathew J.; Imber, Suzanne M.; James, Matthew K.; Bunce, Emma J.; Yeoman, Timothy K.

2017-01-01

Abstract Solar cycle 24 is notable for three features that can be found in previous cycles but which have been unusually prominent: (1) sunspot activity was considerably greater in the northern/southern hemisphere during the rising/declining phase; (2) accumulation of open solar flux (OSF) during the rising phase was modest, but rapid in the early declining phase; (3) the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) tilt showed large fluctuations. We show that these features had a major influence on the progression of the cycle. All flux emergence causes a rise then a fall in OSF, but only OSF with foot points in opposing hemispheres progresses the solar cycle via the evolution of the polar fields. Emergence in one hemisphere, or symmetric emergence without some form of foot point exchange across the heliographic equator, causes poleward migrating fields of both polarities in one or both (respectively) hemispheres which temporarily enhance OSF but do not advance the polar field cycle. The heliospheric field observed near Mercury and Earth reflects the asymmetries in emergence. Using magnetograms, we find evidence that the poleward magnetic flux transport (of both polarities) is modulated by the HCS tilt, revealing an effect on OSF loss rate. The declining phase rise in OSF was caused by strong emergence in the southern hemisphere with an anomalously low HCS tilt. This implies the recent fall in the southern polar field will be sustained and that the peak OSF has limited implications for the polar field at the next sunspot minimum and hence for the amplitude of cycle 25. PMID:28781930

Coronal and heliospheric magnetic flux circulation and its relation to open solar flux evolution.

PubMed

Lockwood, Mike; Owens, Mathew J; Imber, Suzanne M; James, Matthew K; Bunce, Emma J; Yeoman, Timothy K

2017-06-01

Solar cycle 24 is notable for three features that can be found in previous cycles but which have been unusually prominent: (1) sunspot activity was considerably greater in the northern/southern hemisphere during the rising/declining phase; (2) accumulation of open solar flux (OSF) during the rising phase was modest, but rapid in the early declining phase; (3) the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) tilt showed large fluctuations. We show that these features had a major influence on the progression of the cycle. All flux emergence causes a rise then a fall in OSF, but only OSF with foot points in opposing hemispheres progresses the solar cycle via the evolution of the polar fields. Emergence in one hemisphere, or symmetric emergence without some form of foot point exchange across the heliographic equator, causes poleward migrating fields of both polarities in one or both (respectively) hemispheres which temporarily enhance OSF but do not advance the polar field cycle. The heliospheric field observed near Mercury and Earth reflects the asymmetries in emergence. Using magnetograms, we find evidence that the poleward magnetic flux transport (of both polarities) is modulated by the HCS tilt, revealing an effect on OSF loss rate. The declining phase rise in OSF was caused by strong emergence in the southern hemisphere with an anomalously low HCS tilt. This implies the recent fall in the southern polar field will be sustained and that the peak OSF has limited implications for the polar field at the next sunspot minimum and hence for the amplitude of cycle 25.

The ancient Egyptian civilization: maximum and minimum in coincidence with solar activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaltout, M.

It is proved from the last 22 years observations of the total solar irradiance (TSI) from space by artificial satellites, that TSI shows negative correlation with the solar activity (sunspots, flares, and 10.7cm Radio emissions) from day to day, but shows positive correlations with the same activity from year to year (on the base of the annual average for each of them). Also, the solar constant, which estimated fromth ground stations for beam solar radiations observations during the 20 century indicate coincidence with the phases of the 11- year cycles. It is known from sunspot observations (250 years) , and from C14 analysis, that there are another long-term cycles for the solar activity larger than 11-year cycle. The variability of the total solar irradiance affecting on the climate, and the Nile flooding, where there is a periodicities in the Nile flooding similar to that of solar activity, from the analysis of about 1300 years of the Nile level observations atth Cairo. The secular variations of the Nile levels, regularly measured from the 7 toth 15 century A.D., clearly correlate with the solar variations, which suggests evidence for solar influence on the climatic changes in the East African tropics The civilization of the ancient Egyptian was highly correlated with the Nile flooding , where the river Nile was and still yet, the source of the life in the Valley and Delta inside high dry desert area. The study depends on long -time historical data for Carbon 14 (more than five thousands years), and chronical scanning for all the elements of the ancient Egyptian civilization starting from the firs t dynasty to the twenty six dynasty. The result shows coincidence between the ancient Egyptian civilization and solar activity. For example, the period of pyramids building, which is one of the Brilliant periods, is corresponding to maximum solar activity, where the periods of occupation of Egypt by Foreign Peoples corresponding to minimum solar activity. The decline of the Kingdoms in ancient Egypt and occurrence of the intermediate periods are generally explained by very low Nile floods and prolonged droughts followed by severe famines and the destruction of the political structure. The study declear the role of solar activity on the climatic change, and the humankind history.

Recent Perplexing Behavior in Solar Activity Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopresto, James C.

1997-05-01

Calcium K and Hα and SOHO He II UV plage and sunspot ara have been monitored using images on the INTERNET since November of 1992. The purpose of the project is to determine the degree of correlation between changing plage area and solar irradiance changes (also obtained via the INTERNET). Also the project provides a low cost process to involve undergraduates in astronomy research. When using weighted weekly averages for both spot Hα plage pixel counts, we see the expected decline from the last maximum. The activity continues to decline, or at best, has flattened out over the past several months. In contrast, the K-line plage pixel count from both Big Bear and Sacramento Peak show an upswing since mid-1995 or earlier. The k2 measurments from both Kitt Peak and Sacramento Peak are in general agreement with the spot and Hα behavior, indicating wer are in, or barely passed minimum. Images high in the chromosphere, detailing the magnetic network, may be more senstive to smaller field changes. This might be a partial explanation for the earlier upswing in K line and He 304 activity, which are receiving radiation near or at the top of the chromosphere.

Cosmic ray modulation and radiation dose of aircrews during the solar cycle 24/25

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miyake, Shoko; Kataoka, Ryuho; Sato, Tatsuhiko

2017-04-01

Weak solar activity and high cosmic ray flux during the coming solar cycle are qualitatively anticipated by the recent observations that show the decline in the solar activity levels. We predict the cosmic ray modulation and resultant radiation exposure at flight altitude by using the time-dependent and three-dimensional model of the cosmic ray modulation. Our galactic cosmic ray (GCR) model is based on the variations of the solar wind speed, the strength of the heliospheric magnetic field, and the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet. We reproduce the 22 year variation of the cosmic ray modulation from 1980 to 2015 taking into account the gradient-curvature drift motion of GCRs. The energy spectra of GCR protons obtained by our model show good agreement with the observations by the Balloon-borne Experiment with a Superconducting magnetic rigidity Spectrometer (BESS) and the Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics (PAMELA) except for a discrepancy at the solar maximum. Five-year annual radiation dose around the solar minimum at the solar cycle 24/25 will be approximately 19% higher than that in the last cycle. This is caused by the charge sign dependence of the cosmic ray modulation, such as the flattop profiles in a positive polarity.

Bashful ballerina: The asymmetric Sun viewed from the heliosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mursula, K.

Long-term observations of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) at 1 AU have depicted interesting systematic hemispheric and longitudinal asymmetries that have far-reaching implications for the understanding of solar magnetism. It has recently been found that the HMF sector that is prevalent in the northern solar hemisphere dominates the observed HMF sector occurrence for a few years in the late declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle. This leads to a persistent southward shift or coning of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) at these times, which has been described by the concept of the bashful ballerina. This result was later verified by direct measurements of the solar magnetic field which showed that the average field intensity was smaller and the corresponding area larger in the northern (heliographic) hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere during roughly 3 years in the late declining to minimum phase of the cycle. During these years when the HCS was shifted southwards, the solar quadrupole moment was found to be systematically non-zero and oppositely oriented with respect to the dipole moment. Long-term observations of the geomagnetic field can yield information on the HMF sector structure in the pre-satellite era, showing that the ballerina was bashful since 1930s. In addition to the hemispheric asymmetries, the Sun is systematically asymmetric in longitude. It has been shown that the global HMF has persistent active longitudes whose dominance depicts an oscillation with a period of about 3.2 years. Accordingly, the bashful ballerina takes three such steps per activity cycle, thus dancing in waltz tempo. Stellar observations show that this is a general pattern for sun-like cool stars. We describe these phenomena and discuss their implications.

Solar wind velocity and temperature in the outer heliosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gazis, P. R.; Barnes, A.; Mihalov, J. D.; Lazarus, A. J.

1994-01-01

At the end of 1992, the Pioneer 10, Pioneer 11, and Voyager 2 spacecraft were at heliocentric distances of 56.0, 37.3, and 39.0 AU and heliographic latitudes of 3.3 deg N, 17.4 deg N, and 8.6 deg S, respectively. Pioneer 11 and Voyager 2 are at similar celestial longitudes, while Pioneer 10 is on the opposite side of the Sun. All three spacecraft have working plasma analyzers, so intercomparison of data from these spacecraft provides important information about the global character of the solar wind in the outer heliosphere. The averaged solar wind speed continued to exhibit its well-known variation with solar cycle: Even at heliocentric distances greater than 50 AU, the average speed is highest during the declining phase of the solar cycle and lowest near solar minimum. There was a strong latitudinal gradient in solar wind speed between 3 deg and 17 deg N during the last solar minimum, but this gradient has since disappeared. The solar wind temperature declined with increasing heliocentric distance out to a heliocentric distance of at least 20 AU; this decline appeared to continue at larger heliocentric distances, but temperatures in the outer heliosphere were suprisingly high. While Pioneer 10 and Voyager 2 observed comparable solar wind temperatures, the temperature at Pioneer 11 was significantly higher, which suggests the existence of a large-scale variation of temperature with heliographic longitude. There was also some suggestion that solar wind temperatures were higher near solar minimum.

What Could Be Causing Global Ozone Depletion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Singer, S. Fred

1990-01-01

The reported decline trend in global ozone between 1970 and 1986 may be in part an artifact of the analysis; the trend value appears to depend on the time interval selected for analysis--in relation to the 11-year solar cycle. If so, then the decline should diminish as one approaches solar maximum and includes data from 1987 to 1990. If the decline is real, its cause could be the result of natural and human factors other than just chlorofluorocarbons.

Solar Cycle Dependence of the Diurnal Anisotropy of 0.6 TeV Cosmic-ray Intensity Observed with the Matsushiro Underground Muon Detector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munakata, K.; Mizoguchi, Y.; Kato, C.; Yasue, S.; Mori, S.; Takita, M.; Kóta, J.

2010-04-01

We analyze the temporal variation of the diurnal anisotropy of sub-TeV cosmic-ray intensity observed with the Matsushiro (Japan) underground muon detector over two full solar activity cycles in 1985-2008. We find an anisotropy component in the solar diurnal anisotropy superimposed on the Compton-Getting anisotropy due to Earth's orbital motion around the Sun. The phase of this additional anisotropy is almost constant at ~15:00 local solar time corresponding to the direction perpendicular to the average interplanetary magnetic field at Earth's orbit, while the amplitude varies between a maximum (0.043% ± 0.002%) and minimum (~0.008% ± 0.002%) in a clear correlation with the solar activity. We find a significant time lag between the temporal variations of the amplitude and the sunspot number (SSN) and obtain the best correlation coefficient of +0.74 with the SSN delayed for 26 months. We suggest that this anisotropy might be interpreted in terms of the energy change due to the solar-wind-induced electric field expected for galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) crossing the wavy neutral sheet. The average amplitude of the sidereal diurnal variation over the entire period is 0.034% ± 0.003%, which is roughly one-third of the amplitude reported from air shower and deep-underground muon experiments monitoring multi-TeV GCR intensity suggesting a significant attenuation of the anisotropy due to the solar modulation. We find, on the other hand, only a weak positive correlation between the sidereal diurnal anisotropy and the solar activity cycle in which the amplitude in the "active" solar activity epoch is about twice the amplitude in the "quiet" solar activity epoch. This implies that only one-fourth of the total attenuation varies in correlation with the solar activity cycle and/or the solar magnetic cycle. We finally examine the temporal variation of the "single-band valley depth" (SBVD) quoted by the Milagro experiment and, in contrast with recent Milagro's report, we find no steady increase in the Matsushiro observations in a seven-year period between 2000 and 2007. We suggest, therefore, that the steady increase of the SBVD reported by the Milagro experiment is not caused by the decreasing solar modulation in the declining phase of the 23rd solar activity cycle.

OBSERVATIONS AND MODELING OF NORTH-SOUTH ASYMMETRIES USING A FLUX TRANSPORT DYNAMO

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shetye, Juie; Tripathi, Durgesh; Dikpati, Mausumi

2015-02-01

The peculiar behavior of solar cycle 23 and its prolonged minima has been one of the most studied problems over the past few years. In the present paper, we study the asymmetries in active region magnetic flux in the northern and southern hemispheres during the complete solar cycle 23 and the rising phase of solar cycle 24. During the declining phase of solar cycle 23, we find that the magnetic flux in the southern hemisphere is about 10 times stronger than that in the northern hemisphere; however, during the rising phase of cycle 24, this trend is reversed. The magnetic fluxmore » becomes about a factor of four stronger in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, we find that there was a significant delay (about five months) in change of the polarity in the southern hemisphere in comparison with the northern hemisphere. These results provide us with hints of how the toroidal fluxes have contributed to the solar dynamo during the prolonged minima in solar cycle 23 and in the rising phase of solar cycle 24. Using a solar flux-transport dynamo model, we demonstrate that persistently stronger sunspot cycles in one hemisphere could be caused by the effect of greater inflows into active region belts in that hemisphere. Observations indicate that greater inflows are associated with stronger activity. Some other change or difference in meridional circulation between hemispheres could cause the weaker hemisphere to become the stronger one.« less

Mid 19th century minimum of galactic cosmic ray flux inferred from 44Ti in Allegan meteorite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taricco, C.; Bhandari, N.; Colombetti, P.; Verma, N.

Measurements of 44Ti activity in meteorites show that the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity has been declining in the interplanetary space during the past three centuries and has a component of cyclic variation, with periodicity of about 87 years [Taricco, C., Bhandari, N., Cane, D., et al. Galactic cosmic ray flux decline and periodicities in the interplanetary space during the last 3 centuries revealed by 44Ti in meteorites. J. Geophys. Res. 111, A08102, 2006.]. In order to verify these results, we have measured 44Ti activity in Allegan meteorite which fell in 1899 and in some other meteorites with better precision. The measurements confirm low cosmic ray flux and consequently high solar activity near the middle of 19th century.

Long-term variation of radar-auroral backscatter and the interplanetary sector structure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yeoman, T.K.; Burrage, M.D.; Lester, M.

Recurrent variation of geomagnetic activity at the {approximately}27-day solar rotation period and higher harmonics is a well-documented phenomenon. Auroral radar backscatter data from the Sweden and Britain Radar-Auroral Experiment (SABRE) radar provide a continuous time series from 1981 to the present which is a highly sensitive monitor of geomagnetic activity. In this study, Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) dynamic power spectra of SABRE backscatter data from 1981 to 1989, concurrent interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and solar wind parameters from 1981 to 1987, and the Kp index since 1932 are examined. Data since 1977 are compared with previously published heliospheric current sheetmore » measurements mapped out from the solar photosphere. Stong periodic behavior is observed in the radar backscatter during the declining phase of solar cycle 21, but this periodicity disappears at the start of solar cycle 22. Similar behavior is observed in earlier solar cycles in the Kp spectra. Details of the radar backscatter, IMF, and solar wind spectra indicate that the solar wind momentum density is the dominant parameter in determining the backscatter periodicity. The temporal evolution of two- and four-sector structures, as predicted by SABRE backscatter spectra, throughout solar cycle 21 generally still agree well with heliospheric current sheet measurements. For one interval, however, there is evidence that evolution of the current sheet has occurred between the photospheric source surface and the Earth.« less

Solar Radiation and Tidal Exposure as Environmental Drivers of Enhalus acoroides Dominated Seagrass Meadows

PubMed Central

Unsworth, Richard K. F.; Rasheed, Michael A.; Chartrand, Kathryn M.; Roelofs, Anthony J.

2012-01-01

There is strong evidence of a global long-term decline in seagrass meadows that is widely attributed to anthropogenic activity. Yet in many regions, attributing these changes to actual activities is difficult, as there exists limited understanding of the natural processes that can influence these valuable ecosystem service providers. Being able to separate natural from anthropogenic causes of seagrass change is important for developing strategies that effectively mitigate and manage anthropogenic impacts on seagrass, and promote coastal ecosystems resilient to future environmental change. The present study investigated the influence of environmental and climate related factors on seagrass biomass in a large ≈250 ha meadow in tropical north east Australia. Annual monitoring of the intertidal Enhalus acoroides (L.f.) Royle seagrass meadow over eleven years revealed a declining trend in above-ground biomass (54% significant overall reduction from 2000 to 2010). Partial Least Squares Regression found this reduction to be significantly and negatively correlated with tidal exposure, and significantly and negatively correlated with the amount of solar radiation. This study documents how natural long-term tidal variability can influence long-term seagrass dynamics. Exposure to desiccation, high UV, and daytime temperature regimes are discussed as the likely mechanisms for the action of these factors in causing this decline. The results emphasise the importance of understanding and assessing natural environmentally-driven change when interpreting the results of seagrass monitoring programs. PMID:22479541

Jupiter's Mid-Infrared Aurora: Solar Connection and Minor Constituents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kostiuk, Theodore; Livengood, T.A.; Fast, K.E.; Hewagama, T.; Schmilling, F.; Sonnabend, G.; Delgado, J.

2009-01-01

High spectral resolution in the 12 pin region of the polar regions of Jupiter reveal unique information on auroral phenomena and upper stratospheric composition. Polar aurorae in Jupiter's atmosphere radiate; throughout the electromagnetic spectrum from X-ray through mid-infrared (mid-IR, 5 - 20 micron wavelength). Voyager IRIS data and ground-based. spectroscopic measurements of Jupiter's northern mid-IR aurora acquired since 1982, reveal a correlation between auroral brightness and solar activity that has not been observed in Jovian aurora at other wavelengths. Over nearly three solar cycles, Jupiter auroral ethane, emission brightness and solar 10.7-cm radar flux and sunspot number are positively correlated with high confidence. Ethane line emission intensity varies over tenfold between low and high scalar activity periods. Detailed measurements have been made using the GSFC HIPWAC spectrometer at the NASA IRTF since the last solar maximum, following the mid-IR emission through the declining phase toward solar minimum. An even more convincing correlation with solar activity is evident in these data. The spectra measured contain features that cannot be attributed to ethane and are most likely spectra of minor constituents whose molecular bands overlap the v9 band of ethane. Possible candidates are allene, propane, and other higher order hydrocarbons. These features appear to be enhanced in the active polar regions. Laboratory measurements at comparable spectral resolution of spectra of candidate molecules will be used to identify the constituents. Current analyses of these results will be described, including planned measurements on polar ethane line emission scheduled through the rise of the next solar maximum beginning in 2009, with a steep gradient to a maximum in 2012. This work is relevant to the Juno mission and to the development of the NASA/ESA Europa Jupiter System Mission.

Two-parameter model of total solar irradiance variation over the solar cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pap, Judit M.; Willson, Richard C.; Donnelly, Richard F.

1991-01-01

Total solar irradiance measured by the SMM/ACRIM radiometer is modelled from the Photometric Sunspot Index and the Mg II core-to-wing ratio with multiple regression analysis. Considering that the formation of the Mg II line is very similar to that of the Ca II K line, the Mg II core-to-wing ratio, measured by the Nimbus-7 and NOAA9 satellites, is used as a proxy for the bright magnetic elements, including faculae and the magnetic network. It is shown that the relationship between the variations in total solar irradiance and the above solar activity indices depends upon the phase of the solar cycle. Thus, a better fit between total irradiance and its model estimates can be achieved if the irradiance models are calculated for the declining portion and minimum of solar cycle 21, and the rising portion of solar cycle 22, respectively. There is an indication that during the rising portion of solar cycle 22, similar to the maximum time of solar cycle 21, the modelled total irradiance values underestimate the measured values. This suggests that there is an asymmetry in the long-term total irradiance variability.

Geomagnetic and sunspot activity associations and ionospheric effects of lightning phenomena at Trivandrum near dip equator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girish, T. E.; Eapen, P. E.

2008-12-01

From a study of thunder/lightning observations in Trivandrum (near dip equator) for selected years between 1853 and 2005, we could find an inverse relation of the same with sunspot activity and associations with enhancements in diurnal range of local geomagnetic declination. The results seem to suggest lightning-associated modulation of E-region dynamo currents in the equatorial ionosphere and the thunderstorm activity near dip equator probably acts as a moderator to regulate electric potential gradient changes in the global electric circuit due to solar activity changes.

Solar cycle variations of the solar wind

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crooker, N. U.

1983-01-01

Throughout the course of the past one and a half solar cycles, solar wind parameters measured near the ecliptic plane at 1 AU varied in the following way: speed and proton temperature have maxima during the declining phase and minima at solar minimum and are approximately anti-correlated with number density and electron temperature, while magnetic field magnitude and relative abundance of helium roughly follow the sunspot cycle. These variations are described in terms of the solar cycle variations of coronal holes, streamers, and transients. The solar wind signatures of the three features are discussed in turn, with special emphasis on the signature of transients, which is still in the process of being defined. It is proposed that magnetic clouds be identified with helium abundance enhancements and that they form the head of a transient surrounded by streamer like plasma, with an optional shock front. It is stressed that relative values of a parameter through a solar cycle should be compared beginning with the declining phase, especially in the case of magnetic field magnitude.

CME Interaction with Coronal Holes and Their Interplanetary Consequences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, N.; Makela, P.; Xie, H.; Akiyama, S.; Yashiro, S.

2008-01-01

A significant number of interplanetary (IP) shocks (-17%) during cycle 23 were not followed by drivers. The number of such "driverless" shocks steadily increased with the solar cycle with 15%, 33%, and 52% occurring in the rise, maximum, and declining phase of the solar cycle. The solar sources of 15% of the driverless shocks were very close the central meridian of the Sun (within approx.15deg), which is quite unexpected. More interestingly, all the driverless shocks with their solar sources near the solar disk center occurred during the declining phase of solar cycle 23. When we investigated the coronal environment of the source regions of driverless shocks, we found that in each case there was at least one coronal hole nearby suggesting that the coronal holes might have deflected the associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) away from the Sun-Earth line. The presence of abundant low-latitude coronal holes during the declining phase further explains why CMEs originating close to the disk center mimic the limb CMEs, which normally lead to driverless shocks due to purely geometrical reasons. We also examined the solar source regions of shocks with drivers. For these, the coronal holes were located such that they either had no influence on the CME trajectories. or they deflected the CMEs towards the Sun-Earth line. We also obtained the open magnetic field distribution on the Sun by performing a potential field source surface extrapolation to the corona. It was found that the CMEs generally move away from the open magnetic field regions. The CME-coronal hole interaction must be widespread in the declining phase, and may have a significant impact on the geoeffectiveness of CMEs.

MAVEN Upstream Observations of the Cycle 24 Space Weather Conditions at Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, C. O.; Hara, T.; Halekas, J. S.; Thiemann, E.; Curry, S.; Lillis, R. J.; Larson, D. E.; Espley, J. R.; Gruesbeck, J.; Eparvier, F. G.; Li, Y.; Jian, L.; Luhmann, J. G.; Jakosky, B. M.

2016-12-01

The Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) spacecraft went into orbit around Mars during the height of the activity phase of Solar Cycle 24. The mission was designed in part to study the response of the upper atmosphere, ionosphere, and magnetosphere of Mars to solar and solar wind inputs. When MAVEN is on the Martian dayside and orbiting around its apoapsis altitude of 6200 km, the suite of instruments onboard can measure the solar wind plasma (density, velocity), interplanetary magnetic field (magnitude and direction), and particle counts of solar energetic particles (SEPs), as well as the EUV solar irradiance. We will present an overview of the upstream conditions observed to date and highlight a number of Mars-impacting space weather events due to ICMEs and SEPs. We will also present events that are triggered by corotating interaction regions (CIRs), which become more prominent beyond 1 AU and are the dominant heliospheric structures during the declining phase of the solar cycle. As part of the discussion, we will compare and contrast observations from MAVEN and ACE/WIND or STEREO-A during periods when Mars and the 1-AU observer were in solar opposition or nearly aligned along the solar wind Parker spiral.

A STUDY OF SOLAR PHOTOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE GRADIENT VARIATION USING LIMB DARKENING MEASUREMENTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Criscuoli, Serena; Foukal, Peter

2017-01-20

The variation in area of quiet magnetic network measured over the sunspot cycle should modulate the spatially averaged photospheric temperature gradient, since temperature declines with optical depth more gradually in magnetic flux tube atmospheres. Yet, limb darkening measurements show no dependence upon activity level, even at an rms precision of 0.04%. We study the sensitivity of limb darkening to changes in area filling factor using a 3D MHD model of the magnetized photosphere. The limb darkening change expected from the measured 11-year area variation lies below the level of measured limb darkening variations, for a reasonable range of magnetic fluxmore » in quiet network and internetwork regions. So the remarkably constant limb darkening observed over the solar activity cycle is not inconsistent with the measured 11-year change in area of quiet magnetic network. Our findings offer an independent constraint on photospheric temperature gradient changes reported from measurements of the solar spectral irradiance from the Spectral Irradiance Monitor, and recently, from wavelength-differential spectrophotometry using the Solar Optical Telescope aboard the HINODE spacecraft.« less

The Solar Wind and Geomagnetic Activity as a Function of Time Relative to Corotating Interaction Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McPherron, Robert L.; Weygand, James

2006-01-01

Corotating interaction regions during the declining phase of the solar cycle are the cause of recurrent geomagnetic storms and are responsible for the generation of high fluxes of relativistic electrons. These regions are produced by the collision of a high-speed stream of solar wind with a slow-speed stream. The interface between the two streams is easily identified with plasma and field data from a solar wind monitor upstream of the Earth. The properties of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field are systematic functions of time relative to the stream interface. Consequently the coupling of the solar wind to the Earth's magnetosphere produces a predictable sequence of events. Because the streams persist for many solar rotations it should be possible to use terrestrial observations of past magnetic activity to predict future activity. Also the high-speed streams are produced by large unipolar magnetic regions on the Sun so that empirical models can be used to predict the velocity profile of a stream expected at the Earth. In either case knowledge of the statistical properties of the solar wind and geomagnetic activity as a function of time relative to a stream interface provides the basis for medium term forecasting of geomagnetic activity. In this report we use lists of stream interfaces identified in solar wind data during the years 1995 and 2004 to develop probability distribution functions for a variety of different variables as a function of time relative to the interface. The results are presented as temporal profiles of the quartiles of the cumulative probability distributions of these variables. We demonstrate that the storms produced by these interaction regions are generally very weak. Despite this the fluxes of relativistic electrons produced during those storms are the highest seen in the solar cycle. We attribute this to the specific sequence of events produced by the organization of the solar wind relative to the stream interfaces. We also show that there are large quantitative differences in various parameters between the two cycles.

Solar Corona Simulation Model With Positivity-preserving Property

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X. S.

2015-12-01

Positivity-preserving is one of crucial problems in solar corona simulation. In such numerical simulation of low plasma β region, keeping density and pressure is a first of all matter to obtain physical sound solution. In the present paper, we utilize the maximum-principle-preserving flux limiting technique to develop a class of second order positivity-preserving Godunov finite volume HLL methods for the solar wind plasma MHD equations. Based on the underlying first order building block of positivity preserving Lax-Friedrichs, our schemes, under the constrained transport (CT) and generalized Lagrange multiplier (GLM) framework, can achieve high order accuracy, a discrete divergence-free condition and positivity of the numerical solution simultaneously without extra CFL constraints. Numerical results in four Carrington rotation during the declining, rising, minimum and maximum solar activity phases are provided to demonstrate the performance of modeling small plasma beta with positivity-preserving property of the proposed method.

North south asymmetry in the photospheric and coronal magnetic fields observed by different instruments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virtanen, Ilpo; Mursula, Kalevi

2015-04-01

Several recent studies have shown that the solar and heliospheric magnetic fields are north-south asymmetric. The southward shift of the Heliospheric current sheet (HCS) (the so-called bashful ballerina phenomenon) is a persistent pattern, which occurs typically for about three years during the late declining phase of solar cycle. We study here the hemispherical asymmetry in the photospheric and coronal magnetic fields using Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO), Mount Wilson, Kitt Peak, Solis, SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI measurements of the photospheric magnetic field since the 1970s and the potential field source surface (PFSS) model.Multipole analysis of the photospheric magnetic field has shown that the bashful ballerina phenomenon is a consequence of g20 quadrupole term, which is oppositely signed to the dipole moment. We find that, at least during the four recent solar cycles, the g20 reflects the larger magnitude of the southern polar field during a few years in the declining phase of the cycle. Although the overall magnetic activity during the full solar cycle is not very different in the two hemispheres, the temporal distribution of activity is different, contributing to the asymmetry. The used data sets are in general in a good agreement with each other, but there are some significant deviations, especially in WSO data. Also, the data from Kitt Peak 512 channel magnetograph is known to suffer from zero level errors.We also note that the lowest harmonic coefficients do not scale with the overall magnitude in photospheric synoptic magnetic maps. Scaling factors based on histogram techniques can be as large as 10 (from Wilcox to HMI), but the corresponding difference in dipole strength is typically less than two. This is because the polar field has a dominant contribution to the dipole and quadrupole components. This should be noted, e.g., when using synoptic maps as input for coronal models.

Market Barriers to Solar in Michigan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, E.; Nobler, E.; Wolf, C.

2012-08-01

The solar industry in the United States is at a turning point; the cost of PV hardware has declined substantially in recent years, placing new attention on reducing the balance of system (BOS) costs of solar that now contribute to a growing percentage of installation expenses. How states address these costs through the creation of a favorable policy and regulatory environment is proving to be a critical determinant of a thriving statewide solar market. This report addresses the permitting and tax issues that may stimulate the solar market growth in Michigan. By making PV installations easier to complete through reducedmore » BOS costs, Michigan would become a more attractive location for manufacturers and installers. As PV module costs decline and BOS costs make up a greater share of the cost of solar, action taken today on these issues will prove beneficial in the long term, providing Michigan an opportunity to establish a leadership position in the solar industry.« less

Heliospheric Magnetic Field: The Bashful Ballerina dancing in Waltz Tempo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mursula, K.

The recent developments in the long-term observations of the heliospheric magnetic field HMF observed at 1 AU have shown that the HMF sector coming from the northern solar hemisphere systematically dominates in the late declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle This leads to a persistent southward shift or coning of the heliospheric current sheet at these times that can be picturesquely described by the concept of the Bashful Ballerina This result has recently been verified by direct measurements of the solar magnetic field The average field intensity is smaller and the corresponding area is larger in the northern hemisphere Also ground-based observations of the HMF sector structure extend these results to 1920s Moreover it has been shown that the global HMF has persistent active longitudes whose dominance depicts an oscillation with a period of about 3 2 years Accordingly the Bashful Ballerina takes three such steps per activity cycle thus dancing in waltz tempo We discuss the implications of this behaviour

Field aligned current study during the solar declining- extreme minimum of 23 solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nepolian, Jeni Victor; Kumar, Anil; C, Panneerselvam

Field Aligned Current (FAC) density study has been carried out during the solar declining phase from 2004 to 2006 of the 23rd solar cycle and the ambient terrestrial magnetic field of the extended minimum period of 2008 and 2009. We mainly depended on CHAMP satellite data (http://isdc.gfz-potsdam.de/) for computing the FAC density with backup of IGRF-10 model. The study indicates that, the FAC is controlled by quasi-viscous processes occurring at the flank of the earth’s magnetosphere. The dawn-dusk conventional pattern enhanced during disturbed days. The intensity of R1 current system is higher than the R2 current system. Detailed results will be discussed in the conference.

C-14 and temperature variation around and after AD 775 - after the Dark Age Grand Minimum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neuhäuser, Ralph; Neuhäuser, Dagmar L.

2016-04-01

We have compiled an extensive catalog of aurora observations from the Far and Near East as well as Europe for the time from AD 550 to 845. From historic observations of aurorae and sunspots as well as the C-14 and Be-10 data, we can date the end of the Dark Age grand minimum to about AD 690; we see strong activity after this period. We can fix the solar activity Schwabe cycle maxima and minima in the 7th and 8th centuries.. The strong 14-C increase in data with 1-yr time resolution in the AD 770s (e.g. Miyake et al. 2012) is still a matter of debate, e.g. a solar super-flare. In the last three millennia, there were two more strong rapid rises in 14-C - around BC 671 and AD 1795. All three 14-C variations are embedded in similar evolution of solar activity, as we can show with various solar activity proxies; secular evolution of solar wind plays an important role. The rises of 14-C - within a few years each - can be explained by a sudden strong decrease in solar modulation potential leading to increased radioisotope production. The strong rises around AD 775 and 1795 are due to three effects: (i) very strong activity in the previous cycles (i.e. very low 14-C level), (ii) the declining phase of a very strong Schwabe cycle, and (iii) a phase of very weak activity after the strong 14-C rise - very short and/or weak cycle(s) like the suddenly starting Dalton minimum. In addition to arXiv:1503.01581 and arXiv:1508.06745, we also discuss the temperature depression and new quasi-annual 10-Be data. If a temperature depression right after AD 775 for a few decades can be confirmed, this would be fully consistent with our suggestion: reduced solar activity since AD 775 (for a few decades like in the Dalton minimum). Otherwise, one would not expect such a temperature depression after a solar super-flare.

Modeling the heliolatitudinal gradient of the solar wind parameters with exact MHD solutions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lima, J. J. G.; Tsinganos, K.

1995-01-01

The heliolatitudinal dependence of observations of the solar wind macroscopic quantities such as the averaged proton speed, density and the mass and momentum flux are modeled. The published observations covering the last two and a half solar cycles, are obtained either via the technique of interplanetary scintillations for the last 2 solar cycles (1970-1990), or, from the plasma experiment aboard the ULYSSES spacecraft for the recent period 1990-1994. Exact, two dimensional solutions of the full set of the steady MHD equations are used which are obtained through a nonlinear separation of the variables in the MHD equations. The three parameters emerging from the solutions are fixed from these observations, as well as from observations of the solar rotation. It is found that near solar maximum the solar wind speed is uniformly low, around the 400 km/s over a wide range of latitudes. On the other hand, during solar minimum and the declining phase of the solar activity cycle, there is a strong heliolatitudinal gradient in proton speed between 400-800 from equator to pole. This modeling also agrees with previous findings that the gradient in wind speed with the latitude is offset by a gradient in density such that the mass and momentum flux vary relatively little.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, X. L.; Xue, Z. K.; Ma, L.

Kink instability is a possible mechanism for solar filament eruption. However, it is very difficult to directly measure the twist of the solar filament from observation. In this paper, we measured the twist of a solar filament by analyzing its leg rotation. An inverse S-shaped filament in the active region NOAA 11485 was observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly of the Solar Dynamics Observatory on 2012 May 22. During its eruption, the leg of the filament exhibited a significant rotation motion. The 304 Å images were used to uncurl the circles, the centers of which are the axis of themore » filament's leg. The result shows that the leg of the filament rotated up to about 510° (about 2.83π) around the axis of the filament within 23 minutes. The maximal rotation speed reached 100 degrees/minute (about 379.9 km s{sup –1} at radius 18''), which is the fastest rotation speed reported. We also calculated the decay index along the polarity inversion line in this active region and found that the decline of the overlying field with height is not fast enough to trigger the torus instability. According to the kink instability condition, this indicates that the kink instability is the trigger mechanism for the solar filament eruption.« less

Behavior of Solar Cycles 23 and 24 Revealed by Microwave Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, N.; Yashiro, S.; Maekelae, P.; Michalek, G.; Shibasaki, K.; Hathaway, D. H.

2012-01-01

Using magnetic and microwave butterfly diagrams, we compare the behavior of solar polar regions to show that (1) the polar magnetic field and the microwave brightness temperature during solar minimum substantially diminished during the cycle 23/24 minimum compared to the 22/23 minimum. (2) The polar microwave brightness temperature (Tb) seems to be a good proxy for the underlying magnetic field strength (B). The analysis indicates a relationship, B = 0.0067Tb - 70, where B is in G and Tb in K. (3) Both the brightness temperature and the magnetic field strength show north-south asymmetry most of the time except for a short period during the maximum phase. (4) The rush-to-the-pole phenomenon observed in the prominence eruption (PE) activity seems to be complete in the northern hemisphere as of 2012 March. (5) The decline of the microwave brightness temperature in the north polar region to the quiet-Sun levels and the sustained PE activity poleward of 60degN suggest that solar maximum conditions have arrived at the northern hemisphere. The southern hemisphere continues to exhibit conditions corresponding to the rise phase of solar cycle 24. Key words: Sun: chromosphere Sun: coronal mass ejections (CMEs) Sun: filaments, prominences Sun: photosphere Sun: radio radiation Sun: surface magnetism

3D numerical study of the propagation characteristics of a consequence of coronal mass ejections in a structured ambient solar wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.; Feng, X. S.

2015-12-01

CMEs have been identified as a prime causal link between solar activity and large, nonrecurrent geomagnetic storm. In order to improve geomagnetic storm predictions, a careful study of CME's propagation characteristics is important. Here, we analyze and quantitatively study the evolution and propagation characteristics of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) launched at several positions into a structured real ambient solar wind by using a three-dimensional (3D) numerical magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) simulation. The ambient solar wind structure during Carrington rotation 2095 is selected, which is an appropriate around activity minimum and declining phase. The CME is initiated by a simple spherical plasmoid model: a spheromak magnetic structure with high speed, high pressure and high plasma density plasmoid. We present a detailed analysis of the plasma, magnetic field, geoeffectiveness, and composition signatures of these CMEs. Results show that the motion and local appearance of a CME in interplanetary space is strongly affected by its interaction with the background solar wind structure, including its velocity, density, and magnetic structures. The simulations show that the initial launched position substantially affects the IP evolution of the CMEs influencing the propagation velocity, the shape, the trajectory and even the geo-effectiveness

Use of a Geothermal-Solar Hybrid Power Plant to Mitigate Declines in Geothermal Resource Productivity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dan Wendt; Greg Mines

2014-09-01

Many, if not all, geothermal resources are subject to decreasing productivity manifested in the form of decreasing brine temperature, flow rate, or both during the life span of the associated power generation project. The impacts of resource productivity decline on power plant performance can be significant; a reduction in heat input to a power plant not only decreases the thermal energy available for conversion to electrical power, but also adversely impacts the power plant conversion efficiency. The reduction in power generation is directly correlated to a reduction in revenues from power sales. Further, projects with Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) contractsmore » in place may be subject to significant economic penalties if power generation falls below the default level specified. A potential solution to restoring the performance of a power plant operating from a declining productivity geothermal resource involves the use of solar thermal energy to restore the thermal input to the geothermal power plant. There are numerous technical merits associated with a renewable geothermal-solar hybrid plant in which the two heat sources share a common power block. The geo-solar hybrid plant could provide a better match to typical electrical power demand profiles than a stand-alone geothermal plant. The hybrid plant could also eliminate the stand-alone concentrated solar power plant thermal storage requirement for operation during times of low or no solar insolation. This paper identifies hybrid plant configurations and economic conditions for which solar thermal retrofit of a geothermal power plant could improve project economics. The net present value of the concentrated solar thermal retrofit of an air-cooled binary geothermal plant is presented as functions of both solar collector array cost and electricity sales price.« less

CHIRALITY AND MAGNETIC CONFIGURATIONS OF SOLAR FILAMENTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ouyang, Y.; Zhou, Y. H.; Chen, P. F.

It has been revealed that the magnetic topology in the solar atmosphere displays hemispheric preference, i.e., helicity is mainly negative/positive in the northern/southern hemispheres, respectively. However, the strength of the hemispheric rule and its cyclic variation are controversial. In this paper, we apply a new method based on the filament drainage to 571 erupting filaments from 2010 May to 2015 December in order to determine the filament chirality and its hemispheric preference. It is found that 91.6% of our sample of erupting filaments follows the hemispheric rule of helicity sign. It is also found that the strength of the hemisphericmore » preference of the quiescent filaments decreases slightly from ∼97% in the rising phase to ∼85% in the declining phase of solar cycle 24, whereas the strength of the intermediate filaments keeps a high value around 96 ± 4% at all times. Only the active-region filaments show significant variations. Their strength of the hemispheric rule rises from ∼63% to ∼95% in the rising phase, and keeps a high value of 82% ± 5% during the declining phase. Furthermore, during a half-year period around the solar maximum, their hemispheric preference totally vanishes. Additionally, we also diagnose the magnetic configurations of the filaments based on our indirect method and find that in our sample of erupting events, 89% are inverse-polarity filaments with a flux rope magnetic configuration, whereas 11% are normal-polarity filaments with a sheared arcade configuration.« less

Chirality and Magnetic Configurations of Solar Filaments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ouyang, Y.; Zhou, Y. H.; Chen, P. F.; Fang, C.

2017-01-01

It has been revealed that the magnetic topology in the solar atmosphere displays hemispheric preference, I.e., helicity is mainly negative/positive in the northern/southern hemispheres, respectively. However, the strength of the hemispheric rule and its cyclic variation are controversial. In this paper, we apply a new method based on the filament drainage to 571 erupting filaments from 2010 May to 2015 December in order to determine the filament chirality and its hemispheric preference. It is found that 91.6% of our sample of erupting filaments follows the hemispheric rule of helicity sign. It is also found that the strength of the hemispheric preference of the quiescent filaments decreases slightly from ˜97% in the rising phase to ˜85% in the declining phase of solar cycle 24, whereas the strength of the intermediate filaments keeps a high value around 96 ± 4% at all times. Only the active-region filaments show significant variations. Their strength of the hemispheric rule rises from ˜63% to ˜95% in the rising phase, and keeps a high value of 82% ± 5% during the declining phase. Furthermore, during a half-year period around the solar maximum, their hemispheric preference totally vanishes. Additionally, we also diagnose the magnetic configurations of the filaments based on our indirect method and find that in our sample of erupting events, 89% are inverse-polarity filaments with a flux rope magnetic configuration, whereas 11% are normal-polarity filaments with a sheared arcade configuration.

Evolution of Lake Turkana level at the end of the African Humid Period: modalities and forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nutz, A.; Schuster, M.

2015-12-01

The African Humid Period (AHP), ca. 11,000 to 5,000 years ago, is a major phase that had significant impacts on the environments, ecosystems, and human occupation of Africa over several millennia. One of the most marked aspects stemming from an increase in rainfall during this climate period was the creation of numerous regional lakes and the recording of highstands for these waterbodies. The termination of the AHP is known to have been time-transgressive depending on the location, being either abrupt or gradual, thereby highlighting the complex interaction among multiple forcings and responses. Lake Turkana is one of the great lakes of the East African Rift where chronology of the AHP termination has already been investigated. In this study, the delta complex of the Turkwel River is analyzed using trajectory analysis in order to provide modalities of lake level decline during that time. Trajectories reveal six slightly descending (slope gradient: >0° to 0.4°) plateaus separated by four abrupt steps having higher slope gradients (1° to 3.8°). These abrupt steps reveal repeated short-lived strong increases in the rate of lake level decline that are superimposed on the relatively steady lake level decrease characterizing this period. This marks a stepwise forced regression at the end of the AHP in the Lake Turkana. We correlate the short-lived increases in the rate of lake level decline with short-lived abrupt decreases of solar irradiance. Through the termination of the AHP, the abrupt decreases in solar irradiance modulated the continuous precessional-based reduction of solar insulation that drastically impacted monsoon activity (i.e. rainfall) and led to variations in lake levels as a response. This suggests that short-term solar variability is able to modulate longer-term orbitally-driven climate trends having significant impacts in terms of hydrology and the regional continental environments.

Structure of the photospheric magnetic field during sector crossings of the heliospheric magnetic field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Getachew, Tibebu; Virtanen, Ilpo; Mursula, Kalevi

2017-04-01

The photospheric magnetic field is the source of the coronal and heliospheric magnetic fields (HMF), but their mutual correspondence is non-trivial and depends on the phase of the solar cycle. The photospheric field during the HMF sector crossings observed at 1 AU has been found to contain enhanced field intensities and definite polarity ordering, forming regions called Hale boundaries. Here we study the structure of the photospheric field during the HMF sector crossings during solar cycles 21-24, separately for the four phases of each solar cycle. We use a refined version of Svalgaard's list of major HMF sector crossings, mapped to the Sun using the solar wind speed observed at the Earth, and the daily level-3 magnetograms of the photospheric field measured at the Wilcox Solar Observatory in 1976-2014. We find that the structure of the photospheric field corresponding to the HMF sector crossings, and the existence and properties of the corresponding Hale bipolar regions varies significantly with solar cycle and with solar cycle phase. We find evidence for Hale boundaries in many, but not all ascending, maximum and declining phases of solar cycles but no minimum phase. The most clear Hale boundaries are found during the (+,-) HMF crossings in the northern hemisphere of odd cycles 21 and 23, but less systematically during the (+,-) crossings in the southern hemisphere of even cycles 22 and 24. We also find that the Hale structure of cycles 23 and 24 is more systematic than during cycles 21 and 22. This may be due to the weakening activity, which reduces the complexity of the photospheric field and clarifies the Hale pattern. The photospheric field distribution also depicts a larger area for the field of the northern hemisphere during the declining and minimum phases, in a good agreement with the bashful ballerina phenomenon. The HMF sector crossings observed at 1AU have only a partial correspondence to Hale boundaries in the photosphere, indicating that the two HMF sectors often originate from the opposite hemispheres across the equator. Our results also give evidence for hemispheric and polarity related differences in the photospheric field between the odd and even solar cycles.

On dependence of seismic activity on 11 year variations in solar activity and/or cosmic rays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhantayev, Zhumabek; Khachikyan, Galina; Breusov, Nikolay

2014-05-01

It is found in the last decades that seismic activity of the Earth has a tendency to increase with decreasing solar activity (increasing cosmic rays). A good example of this effect may be the growing number of catastrophic earthquakes in the recent rather long solar minimum. Such results support idea on existence a solar-lithosphere relationship which, no doubts, is a part of total pattern of solar-terrestrial relationships. The physical mechanism of solar-terrestrial relationships is not developed yet. It is believed at present that one of the main contenders for such mechanism may be the global electric circuit (GEC) - vertical current loops, piercing and electrodynamically coupling all geospheres. It is also believed, that the upper boundary of the GEC is located at the magnetopause, where magnetic field of the solar wind reconnects with the geomagnetic field, that results in penetrating solar wind energy into the earth's environment. The effectiveness of the GEC operation depends on intensity of cosmic rays (CR), which ionize the air in the middle atmosphere and provide its conductivity. In connection with the foregoing, it can be expected: i) quantitatively, an increasing seismic activity from solar maximum to solar minimum may be in the same range as increasing CR flux; and ii) in those regions of the globe, where the crust is shipped by the magnetic field lines with number L= ~ 2.0, which are populated by anomalous cosmic rays (ACR), the relationship of seismic activity with variations in solar activity will be manifested most clearly, since there is a pronounced dependence of ACR on solar activity variations. Checking an assumption (i) with data of the global seismological catalog of the NEIC, USGS for 1973-2010, it was found that yearly number of earthquake with magnitude M≥4.5 varies into the 11 year solar cycle in a quantitative range of about 7-8% increasing to solar minimum, that qualitatively and quantitatively as well is in agreement with the variations of CR in the 11 year solar cycle. Checking an assumptions (ii), it is found that during the period from 1973 to 2010, the twenty earthquakes with magnitude M≥7.0 occurred in the seismic areas, where geomagnetic force lines L=2.0 -2.2 are loaned into the earth's crust. Surprisingly, all of these strong earthquakes occurred only at declining phase of the 11 year solar cycle, while were absent at ascending phase. This result proves an expectation (ii) and can be taken into account for forecasting strong earthquake occurrence in the seismic areas where the crust is riddled with geomagnetic field lines L= ~ 2.0. In conclusion: the results support a modern idea that earthquake occurrence is related to operation of global electric circuit, but more research are required to study this problem in more details.

Declinazione magnetica: storia delle prime misure e misura con l'azimut del Sole

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sigismondi, Costantino

2016-05-01

The magnetic declination is the compass deviation from astronomical North. Georg Hartmann in 1510 in Rome firstly measured it as 6° East. Using accurate solar ephemerides and a UTC synchronized watch, the shadow of a vertical pole is astronomically referenced. The angles of a 10m size triangle including the direction of this shadow, the solar azimuth, and the magnetic North give the magnetic declination with an accuracy of 2 arcmin.

Holocene forest dynamics in central and western Mediterranean: periodicity, spatio-temporal patterns and climate influence.

PubMed

Di Rita, Federico; Fletcher, William J; Aranbarri, Josu; Margaritelli, Giulia; Lirer, Fabrizio; Magri, Donatella

2018-06-12

It is well-known that the Holocene exhibits a millennial-scale climate variability. However, its periodicity, spatio-temporal patterns and underlying processes are not fully deciphered yet. Here we focus on the central and western Mediterranean. We show that recurrent forest declines from the Gulf of Gaeta (central Tyrrhenian Sea) reveal a 1860-yr periodicity, consistent with a ca. 1800-yr climate fluctuation induced by large-scale changes in climate modes, linked to solar activity and/or AMOC intensity. We show that recurrent forest declines and dry events are also recorded in several pollen and palaeohydrological proxy-records in the south-central Mediterranean. We found coeval events also in several palaeohydrological records from the south-western Mediterranean, which however show generally wet climate conditions, indicating a spatio-temporal hydrological pattern opposite to the south-central Mediterranean and suggesting that different expressions of climate modes occurred in the two regions at the same time. We propose that these opposite hydroclimate regimes point to a complex interplay of the prevailing or predominant phases of NAO-like circulation, East Atlantic pattern, and extension and location of the North African anticyclone. At a larger geographical scale, displacements of the ITCZ, modulated by solar activity and/or AMOC intensity, may have also indirectly influenced the observed pattern.

The Solar Constant, Climate, and Some Tests of the Storage Hypothesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eddy, J. A.

1984-01-01

Activity related modulation of the solar constant can have practical consequences for climate only if storage is involved, as opposed to a detailed balance between sunspot blocking and facular reemission. Four empirical tests are considered that might distinguish between these opposing interpretations: monochromatic measurements of positive and negative flux; comparison of modelled and measured irradiance variations; the interpretation of secular trends in irradiance data; and the direct test of an anticipated signal in climate records of surface air temperature. The yet unanswered question of the role of faculae as possible reemitters of blocked radiation precludes a definitive answer, although other tests suggest their role to be minor, and that storage and an 11 year modulation is implicated. A crucial test is the behavior of the secular trend in irradiance in the declining years of the present activity cycle.

Exploration of Solar Wind Acceleration Region Using Interplanetary Scintillation of Water Vapor Maser Source and Quasars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tokumaru, Munetoshi; Yamauchi, Yohei; Kondo, Tetsuro

2001-01-01

Single-station observations of interplanetary scintillation UPS) at three microwave frequencies 2, 8, and 22GHz, were carried out between 1989 and 1998 using a large (34-micro farad) radio telescope at the Kashima Space Research Center of the Communications Research Laboratory. The aim of these observations was to explore the near-sun solar wind, which is the key region for the study of the solar wind acceleration mechanism. Strong quasars, 3C279 and 3C273B, were used for the Kashima IPS observations at 2 and 8GHz, and a water-vapor maser source, IRC20431, was used for the IPS observations at 22GHz. Solar wind speeds derived from Kashima IPS data suggest that the solar wind acceleration takes place at radial distances between 10 and 30 solar radii (Rs) from the sun. The properties of the turbulence spectrum (e.g. anisotropy, spectral index, inner scale) inferred from the Kashima data were found to change systematically in the solar wind acceleration region. While the solar wind in the maximum phase appears to be dominated by the slow wind, fast and rarefied winds associated with the coronal holes were found to develop significantly at high latitudes as the solar activity declined. Nevertheless, the Kashima data suggests that the location of the acceleration region is stable throughout the solar cycle.

Exploration of Solar Wind Acceleration Region Using Interplanetary Scintillation of Water Vapor Maser Source and Quasars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tokumaru, Munetoshi; Yamauchi, Yohei; Kondo, Tetsuro

2001-01-01

Single-station observations of interplanetary scintillation (IPS) at three microwave frequencies; 2 GHz, 8 GHz and 22 GHz have been carried out between 1989 and 1998 using a large (34 m farad) radio telescope at the Kashima Space Research Center of the Communications Research Laboratory. The aim of these observations is to explore the near-sun solar wind, which is the key region for the study of the solar wind acceleration mechanism. Strong quasars; 3C279 and 3C273B were used for Kashima IPS observations at 2 GHz and 8 GHz, and a water vapor maser source, IRC20431 was used for the IPS observations at 22 GHz. Solar wind velocities derived from Kashima IPS data suggest that the solar wind acceleration takes place at radial distances between 10 and 30 solar radii (R(sub s)) from the sun. Properties of the turbulence spectrum (e.g. anisotropy, spectral index, inner scale) inferred from Kashima data are found to change systematically in the solar wind acceleration region. While the solar wind in the maximum phase appears to be dominated by the slow wind, fast and rarefied winds associated with coronal holes are found to develop significantly at high latitudes as the solar activity declines. Nevertheless, Kashima data suggests that the location of the acceleration region is stable throughout the solar cycle.

Sensitivity Monitoring of the SECCHI COR1 Telescopes on STEREO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, William T.

2018-03-01

Measurements of bright stars passing through the fields of view of the inner coronagraphs (COR1) on board the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) are used to monitor changes in the radiometric calibration over the course of the mission. Annual decline rates are found to be 0.648 ± 0.066%/year for COR1-A on STEREO Ahead and 0.258 ± 0.060%/year for COR1-B on STEREO Behind. These rates are consistent with decline rates found for other space-based coronagraphs in similar radiation environments. The theorized cause for the decline in sensitivity is darkening of the lenses and other optical elements due to exposure to high-energy solar particles and photons, although other causes are also possible. The total decline in the COR-B sensitivity when contact with Behind was lost on 1 October 2014 was 1.7%, while COR1-A was down by 4.4%. As of 1 November 2017, the COR1-A decline is estimated to be 6.4%. The SECCHI calibration routines will be updated to take these COR1 decline rates into account.

What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hathaway, David H.; Wilson, Robert M.

2004-01-01

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modem measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, x-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modem measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or Space Climate. The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131 plus or minus 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5 ) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period, 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 1.45 plus or minus 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 plus or minus 30 in 2023.

Actividad solar del ciclo 23. Predicción del máximo y fase decreciente utilizando redes neuronales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parodi, M. A.; Ceccatto, H. A.; Piacentini, R. D.; García, P. J.

Different methods have been proposed in order to predict the maximum amplitude of solar cycles, either as a consequence of the intrinsic importance of this event and because of its relation with solar storms and possible effects upon satellites, communication systems, etc. In this work, a neural network solar activity prediction is presented, measured through the sunspot number (SSN). The 16-units neural network, with a 12:3:1 architecture, was trained in a ``feed-forward" propagation way and learning by the so called ``back propagation rule". The annual mean SSN data in the 1700-1975 and 1987-1998 periods were used as the training set. The solar cycle 21 (1976-1986) was taken as the cross-validation data set. After performing the network training we obtained a prediction of the maximum annual mean for the current solar cycle 23, SSNmax= 135 ±17 at the year 2000, which is 13% smaller than the International Consensus Commitee's mean maximum prediction obtained through ``precursor techniques". On the other hand, our prediction is only about 4% smaller than the Consensus's neural network mean prediction. A ``multiple step" prediction technique was also performed and SSN annual mean predicted values for the near-maximum (from the present year 1999 to beyond the maximum) and the declining activity of solar cycle 23 are presented in this work. The sensibility of predictions is also tested. To do so, we changed the interval width and comparated our results with those of a previous neural network prediction and those of others authors using differents methods.

Seasonal ionospheric scintillation analysis during increasing solar activity at mid-latitude

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, Wasiu Akande; Wu, Falin; Agbaje, Ganiyu Ishola; Ednofri, Ednofri; Marlia, Dessi; Zhao, Yan

2017-09-01

Monitoring of ionospheric parameters (such as Total Electron Content and scintillation) is of great importance as it affects and contributes to the errors encountered by radio signals. It thus requires constant measurements to avoid disastrous situation for space agencies, parastatals and departments that employ GNSS applications in their daily operations. The research objective is to have a better understanding of the behaviour of ionospheric scintillation at midlatitude as it threatens the performances of satellite communication, navigation systems and military operations. This paper adopts seasonal ionospheric scintillation scenario. The mid-latitude investigation of ionospheric effect of scintillation was conducted during the increasing solar activity from 2011-2015. Ionospheric scintillation data were obtained from four ionospheric monitoring stations located at mid-latitude (i.e Shenzhen North Station, Beijing Changping North Station Branch, Beijing North Station and Beijing Miyun ground Station). The data was collected from January 2011 to December 2015. There were absence of data due to software problem or system failure at some locations. The scintillation phenomenon was computed using Global Ionospheric Scintillation and TEC Monitoring Model. There are four seasons which existed in China namely: Spring, Summer, Autumn and Winter. The relationship between TEC, amplitude and phase scintillation were observed for each of these seasons. The results indicated that the weak amplitude scintillation was observed as against phase scintillation which was high. Phase scintillation was gradually enhanced from 2011 to 2012 and later declined till 2014. TEC was also at peak around 00:00-10:00 UT (08:00-18:00 LT). The seasonal events temporal density characteristics comply with solar cycle prediction as such it ascended from 2011 to 2013 and then scintillation parameters declined significantly afterwards.

Correlating DMSP and NOAA Ion Precipitation Observations with Low Altitude ENA Emissions During the Declining Phase of Solar Cycle 23

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackler, D. A.; Jahn, J. M.; Perez, J. D.; Pollock, C. J.

2014-12-01

Plasma sheet particles with sufficiently low mirror points will interact with thermospheric neutrals through charge exchange. The resulting ENAs are no longer magnetically bound and can therefore be detected by remote platforms outside the ionosphere/lower atmosphere. These ENAs closely associated with ion precipitation are termed Low Altitude Emissions (LAEs). They are non-isotropic in velocity space and mimic the corresponding ion pitch angle distribution. In this study we present a statistical correlation between remote observations of the LAE emission characteristics and ion precipitation maps determined in situ over the declining phase of solar cycle 23 (2000-2005). We discuss the strength and derived location (MLT, iMLAT) of LAEs as a function of geomagnetic activity levels in relation to the simultaneously measured strength, location, and spectral characteristics of in situ ion precipitation. These comparisons may allow us to use ENA images to assess where and how much energy is deposited during any type of enhanced geomagnetic activity. The precipitating ion differential directional flux maps are built up from combining NOAA-14/15/16 TED and DMSP-13/14/15 SSJ4 data. Low altitude ENA source locations are identified algorithmically using IMAGE/MENA images. ENA flux maps are derived by computing the LAE source locations assuming an ENA emission altitude (h) of 650 km, then projecting each image pixel onto a sphere with radius Re+h to determine the local time and latitude extent of the ENA source. The IGRF magnetic field model is used in combination with the Solar Magnetic coordinates of LAE pixels to compute the pitch angle of the escaping neutrals (previously ion before charge exchanging). Pitch angles larger than 90° will have a mirror point further into the atmosphere than the assumed emission altitude.

The latitudinal gradient of the NO peak density

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fesen, C. G.; Rusch, D. W.; Gerard, J.-C.

1990-01-01

Results are presented from SME observations of the latitudinal gradients of peak NO densities at about 110-km altitude during the solstice and equinox periods from 1982 through 1985. It is shown that the response of the peak NO densities to the declining level of solar activity varies with latitude, with the polar regions exhibiting low sensitivity and the low-latitude regions responding strongly. The SME data also revealed marked asymmetries in the latitudinal structure of the two hemispheres for each season and considerable day-to-day variations in the NO densities. The solar cycle minimum data for June were simulated using a two-dimensional model; results of sensitivity studies performed with varied quenching rate and eddy diffusion coefficient are presented.

Geothermal Risk Reduction via Geothermal/Solar Hybrid Power Plants. Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wendt, Daniel; Mines, Greg; Turchi, Craig

There are numerous technical merits associated with a renewable geothermal-solar hybrid plant concept. The performance of air-cooled binary plants is lowest when ambient temperatures are high due to the decrease in air-cooled binary plant performance that occurs when the working fluid condensing temperature, and consequently the turbine exhaust pressure, increases. Electrical power demand is generally at peak levels during periods of elevated ambient temperature and it is therefore especially important to utilities to be able to provide electrical power during these periods. The time periods in which air-cooled binary geothermal power plant performance is lowest generally correspond to periods ofmore » high solar insolation. Use of solar heat to increase air-cooled geothermal power plant performance during these periods can improve the correlation between power plant output and utility load curves. While solar energy is a renewable energy source with long term performance that can be accurately characterized, on shorter time scales of hours or days it can be highly intermittent. Concentrating solar power (CSP), aka solar-thermal, plants often incorporate thermal energy storage to ensure continued operation during cloud events or after sunset. Hybridization with a geothermal power plant can eliminate the need for thermal storage due to the constant availability of geothermal heat. In addition to the elimination of the requirement for solar thermal storage, the ability of a geothermal/solar-thermal hybrid plant to share a common power block can reduce capital costs relative to separate, stand-alone geothermal and solar-thermal power plant installations. The common occurrence of long-term geothermal resource productivity decline provides additional motivation to consider the use of hybrid power plants in geothermal power production. Geothermal resource productivity decline is a source of significant risk in geothermal power generation. Many, if not all, geothermal resources are subject to decreasing productivity manifested in the form of decreasing production fluid temperature, flow rate, or both during the life span of the associated power generation project. The impacts of geothermal production fluid temperature decline on power plant performance can be significant; a reduction in heat input to a power plant not only decreases the thermal energy available for conversion to electrical power, but also adversely impacts the power plant efficiency. The impact of resource productivity decline on power generation project economics can be equally detrimental. The reduction in power generation is directly correlated to a reduction in revenues from power sales. Further, projects with Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) contracts in place may be subject to significant economic penalties if power generation falls below a specified default level. While the magnitude of PPA penalties varies on a case-by-case basis, it is not unrealistic for these penalties to be on the order of the value of the deficit power sales such that the utility may purchase the power elsewhere. This report evaluates the use of geothermal/solar-thermal hybrid plant technology for mitigation of resource productivity decline, which has not been a primary topic of investigation in previous analyses in the open literature.« less

HST UV Images of Saturn's Aurora Coordinated with Cassini Solar Wind Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clarke, John

2003-07-01

A key measurement goal of the Cassini mission to Saturn is to obtain simultaneous solar wind and auroral imaging measurements in a campaign scheduled for Jan. 2004. Cassini will measure the solar wind approaching Saturn continuously from 9 Jan. - 6 Feb., but not closer to Saturn due to competing spacecraft orientation constraints. The only system capable of imaging Saturn's aurora in early 2004 will be HST. In this community DD proposal we request the minimum HST time needed to support the Cassini mission during the solar wind campaign with UV images of Saturn's aurora. Saturn's magnetosphere is intermediate between the "closed" Jovian case with large internal sources of plasma and the Earth's magnetosphere which is open to solar wind interactions. Saturn's aurora has been shown to exhibit large temporal variations in brightness and morphology from Voyager and HST observations. Changes of auroral emitted power exceeding one order of magnitude, dawn brightenings, and latitudinal motions of the main oval have all been observed. Lacking knowledge of solar wind conditions near Saturn, it has not been possible to determine its role in Saturn's auroral processes, nor the mechanisms controlling the auroral precipitation. During Cassini's upcoming approach to Saturn there will be a unique opportunity to answer these questions. We propose to image one complete rotation of Saturn to determine the corotational and longitudinal dependences of the auroral activity. We will then image the active sector of Saturn once every two days for a total coverage of 26 days during the Cassini campaign to measure the upstream solar wind parameters. This is the minimum coverage needed to ensure observations of the aurora under solar wind pressure variations of more than a factor of two, based on the solar wind pressure variations measured by Voyager 2 near Saturn on the declining phase of solar activity. The team of proposers has carried out a similar coordinated observing campaign of Jupiter during the Cassini flyby, resulting in a set of papers and HST images on the cover of Nature on 28 February 2002.

The coronal electron density distribution determined from dual-frequency ranging measurements during the 1991 solar conjunction of the Ulysses spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bird, M. K.; Volland, H.; Paetzold, M.; Edenhofer, P.; Asmar, S. W.; Brenkle, J. P.

1994-01-01

Dual-frequency ranging and Doppler measurements were conducted in support of the Ulysses Solar Corona Experiment (SCE) at and around the spacecraft's first solar conjunction in 1991 August. The differential group delay time between range codes on the two downlink carrier signals at the wavelengths 13.1 and 3.6 cm, a direct measure of the total electron content between spacecraft and ground station, was used to derive the electron density distribution in the solar corona. Linear power-law representations of the coronal electron density were derived for the range of solar distances from 4 solar radii to 40 solar radii on both sides of the Sun. The corona was found to be very nearly symmetric; the radial falloff exponent being 2.54 +/- 0.05 for occultation ingress (east solar limb) and 2.42 +/- 0.05 for egress (west limb), respectively. The departure of these exponents from the inverse equare relation implies that significant solar wind acceleration is occurring within the radial range of the observations. The electron density level was found to be considerably lower than that observed during the 1988 December solar occultation of Voyager 2. Although the smoothed sunspot number R(sub z) (a standard indicator of solar activity) was almost the same in 1988 December and 1991 August, the mean electron density at 20 solar radii was found to be 1.7 +/- 0.1 x 10(exp 3)/cu cm during the Ulysses conjunction, a decline by almost a factor of 4 from the value obtained during the Voyager conjunction.

Implications of potential future grand solar minimum for ozone layer and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arsenovic, Pavle; Rozanov, Eugene; Anet, Julien; Stenke, Andrea; Schmutz, Werner; Peter, Thomas

2018-03-01

Continued anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are expected to cause further global warming throughout the 21st century. Understanding the role of natural forcings and their influence on global warming is thus of great interest. Here we investigate the impact of a recently proposed 21st century grand solar minimum on atmospheric chemistry and climate using the SOCOL3-MPIOM chemistry-climate model with an interactive ocean element. We examine five model simulations for the period 2000-2199, following the greenhouse gas concentration scenario RCP4.5 and a range of different solar forcings. The reference simulation is forced by perpetual repetition of solar cycle 23 until the year 2199. This reference is compared with grand solar minimum simulations, assuming a strong decline in solar activity of 3.5 and 6.5 W m-2, respectively, that last either until 2199 or recover in the 22nd century. Decreased solar activity by 6.5 W m-2 is found to yield up to a doubling of the GHG-induced stratospheric and mesospheric cooling. Under the grand solar minimum scenario, tropospheric temperatures are also projected to decrease compared to the reference. On the global scale a reduced solar forcing compensates for at most 15 % of the expected greenhouse warming at the end of the 21st and around 25 % at the end of the 22nd century. The regional effects are predicted to be significant, in particular in northern high-latitude winter. In the stratosphere, the reduction of around 15 % of incoming ultraviolet radiation leads to a decrease in ozone production by up to 8 %, which overcompensates for the anticipated ozone increase due to reduced stratospheric temperatures and an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. This, in turn, leads to a delay in total ozone column recovery from anthropogenic halogen-induced depletion, with a global ozone recovery to the pre-ozone hole values happening only upon completion of the grand solar minimum.

Configuration of and Motions in the Solar Corona at the 2017 Total Solar Eclipse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasachoff, Jay M.; Rusin, Vojtech; Vanur, Roman; Economou, Thanasis; Voulgaris, Aristeidis; Seiradakis, John H.; Seaton, Daniel; Dantowitz, Ronald; Lockwood, Christian A.; Nagle-McNaughton, Timothy; Perez, Cielo; Meadors, Erin N.; Marti, Connor J.; Yu, Ross; Rosseau, Brendan; Ide, Charles A.; Daly, Declan M.; Davis, Allen Bradford; Lu, Muzhou; Steele, Amy; Lee, Duane; Freeman, Marcus J.; Sliski, David; Rousseva, Ana; Greek Salem (Oregon) Team; Voulgaris, Aristeidis; Seiradakis, John Hugh; Koukioglou, Stavros; Kyriakou, Nikos; Vasileiadou, Anna; Greek Carbondale (Illinois) Team; Economou, Thanasis; Kanouras, Spyros; Irakleous, Christina; Golemis, Adrianos; Tsioumpanika, Nikoleta; Plexidas, Nikos; Tzimkas, Nikos; Kokkinidou, Ourania

2018-06-01

We report on high-contrast data reduction of white-light images from the August 21, 2017, total solar eclipse. We show the configuration of the solar corona at this declining phase of the solar-activity cycle, with the projection onto the plane of the sky of the three-dimensional coronal streamers plus extensive polar plumes. We discuss the relation of the white-light coronal loops visible in our observations with extreme-ultraviolet observations from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and NOAA’s GOES-16 Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI). We show differences and motions over a 65-minute interval between observations from our main site at Willamette University in Salem, Oregon, and a subsidiary site in Carbondale, Illinois. We discuss, in particular, a giant demarcation about 1 solar radius outward in the southwest that crosses the radial streamers.Our observations of the eclipse were sponsored in large part by the Committee for Research and Exploration of the National Geographic Society and by the Solar Terrestrial Program of the National Geographic Society. Additional support was received from the NASA Massachusetts Space Grant Consortium, the Sigma Xi honorary scientific society, the University of Pennsylvania (for DS), the Slovak Academy of Sciences VEGA project 2/0003/16, and the Freeman Foote Expeditionary and Brandi funds at Williams College. We thank Stephen Thorsett, Rick Watkins, and Honey Wilson of Willamette University for their hospitality. See http://totalsolareclipse.org or http://sites.williams.edu/eclipse/2017-usa/.

NREL Report Shows Utility-Scale Solar PV System Cost Fell Nearly 30% Last

Science.gov Websites

Year | NREL | News | NREL Report Shows Utility-Scale Solar PV System Cost Fell Nearly 30% Last Year News Release: NREL Report Shows Utility-Scale Solar PV System Cost Fell Nearly 30% Last Year September 12, 2017 Record-low costs enabled by decline in module and inverter prices The installed cost of

NREL Report Shows U.S. Solar Photovoltaic Costs Continuing to Fall in 2016

Science.gov Websites

chart of solar pv costs from q4 2009 to q1 2016 NREL U.S. PV system cost benchmarks, from the fourth (NREL). Driving the cost reductions were lower module and inverter prices, increased competition, lower ;The continuing total cost decline of solar PV systems demonstrates the sustained economic

Coronal and heliospheric magnetic flux circulation and its relation to open solar flux evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lockwood, Mike; Owens, Mathew J.; Imber, Suzanne M.; James, Matthew K.; Bunce, Emma J.; Yeoman, Timothy K.

2017-06-01

Solar cycle 24 is notable for three features that can be found in previous cycles but which have been unusually prominent: (1) sunspot activity was considerably greater in the northern/southern hemisphere during the rising/declining phase; (2) accumulation of open solar flux (OSF) during the rising phase was modest, but rapid in the early declining phase; (3) the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) tilt showed large fluctuations. We show that these features had a major influence on the progression of the cycle. All flux emergence causes a rise then a fall in OSF, but only OSF with foot points in opposing hemispheres progresses the solar cycle via the evolution of the polar fields. Emergence in one hemisphere, or symmetric emergence without some form of foot point exchange across the heliographic equator, causes poleward migrating fields of both polarities in one or both (respectively) hemispheres which temporarily enhance OSF but do not advance the polar field cycle. The heliospheric field observed near Mercury and Earth reflects the asymmetries in emergence. Using magnetograms, we find evidence that the poleward magnetic flux transport (of both polarities) is modulated by the HCS tilt, revealing an effect on OSF loss rate. The declining phase rise in OSF was caused by strong emergence in the southern hemisphere with an anomalously low HCS tilt. This implies the recent fall in the southern polar field will be sustained and that the peak OSF has limited implications for the polar field at the next sunspot minimum and hence for the amplitude of cycle 25.