Revealing life-history traits by contrasting genetic estimations with predictions of effective population size.

PubMed

Greenbaum, Gili; Renan, Sharon; Templeton, Alan R; Bouskila, Amos; Saltz, David; Rubenstein, Daniel I; Bar-David, Shirli

2017-12-22

Effective population size, a central concept in conservation biology, is now routinely estimated from genetic surveys and can also be theoretically predicted from demographic, life-history, and mating-system data. By evaluating the consistency of theoretical predictions with empirically estimated effective size, insights can be gained regarding life-history characteristics and the relative impact of different life-history traits on genetic drift. These insights can be used to design and inform management strategies aimed at increasing effective population size. We demonstrated this approach by addressing the conservation of a reintroduced population of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus). We estimated the variance effective size (N ev ) from genetic data (N ev =24.3) and formulated predictions for the impacts on N ev of demography, polygyny, female variance in lifetime reproductive success (RS), and heritability of female RS. By contrasting the genetic estimation with theoretical predictions, we found that polygyny was the strongest factor affecting genetic drift because only when accounting for polygyny were predictions consistent with the genetically measured N ev . The comparison of effective-size estimation and predictions indicated that 10.6% of the males mated per generation when heritability of female RS was unaccounted for (polygyny responsible for 81% decrease in N ev ) and 19.5% mated when female RS was accounted for (polygyny responsible for 67% decrease in N ev ). Heritability of female RS also affected N ev ; hf2=0.91 (heritability responsible for 41% decrease in N ev ). The low effective size is of concern, and we suggest that management actions focus on factors identified as strongly affecting Nev, namely, increasing the availability of artificial water sources to increase number of dominant males contributing to the gene pool. This approach, evaluating life-history hypotheses in light of their impact on effective population size, and contrasting predictions with genetic measurements, is a general, applicable strategy that can be used to inform conservation practice. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Population size is weakly related to quantitative genetic variation and trait differentiation in a stream fish.

PubMed

Wood, Jacquelyn L A; Tezel, Defne; Joyal, Destin; Fraser, Dylan J

2015-09-01

How population size influences quantitative genetic variation and differentiation among natural, fragmented populations remains unresolved. Small, isolated populations might occupy poor quality habitats and lose genetic variation more rapidly due to genetic drift than large populations. Genetic drift might furthermore overcome selection as population size decreases. Collectively, this might result in directional changes in additive genetic variation (VA ) and trait differentiation (QST ) from small to large population size. Alternatively, small populations might exhibit larger variation in VA and QST if habitat fragmentation increases variability in habitat types. We explored these alternatives by investigating VA and QST using nine fragmented populations of brook trout varying 50-fold in census size N (179-8416) and 10-fold in effective number of breeders, Nb (18-135). Across 15 traits, no evidence was found for consistent differences in VA and QST with population size and almost no evidence for increased variability of VA or QST estimates at small population size. This suggests that (i) small populations of some species may retain adaptive potential according to commonly adopted quantitative genetic measures and (ii) populations of varying sizes experience a variety of environmental conditions in nature, however extremely large studies are likely required before any firm conclusions can be made. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Life-history strategies associated with local population variability confer regional stability.

PubMed

Pribil, Stanislav; Houlahan, Jeff E

2003-07-07

A widely held ecological tenet is that, at the local scale, populations of K-selected species (i.e. low fecundity, long lifespan and large body size) will be less variable than populations of r-selected species (i.e. high fecundity, short lifespan and small body size). We examined the relationship between long-term population trends and life-history attributes for 185 bird species in the Czech Republic and found that, at regional spatial scales and over moderate temporal scales (100-120 years), K-selected bird species were more likely to show both large increases and decreases in population size than r-selected species. We conclude that life-history attributes commonly associated with variable populations at the local scale, confer stability at the regional scale.

The influence of simulated exploitation on Patella vulgata populations: protandric sex change is size-dependent.

PubMed

Borges, Carla D G; Hawkins, Stephen J; Crowe, Tasman P; Doncaster, C Patrick

2016-01-01

Grazing mollusks are used as a food resource worldwide, and limpets are harvested commercially for both local consumption and export in several countries. This study describes a field experiment to assess the effects of simulated human exploitation of limpets Patella vulgata on their population ecology in terms of protandry (age-related sex change from male to female), growth, recruitment, migration, and density regulation. Limpet populations at two locations in southwest England were artificially exploited by systematic removal of the largest individuals for 18 months in plots assigned to three treatments at each site: no (control), low, and high exploitation. The shell size at sex change (L 50: the size at which there is a 50:50 sex ratio) decreased in response to the exploitation treatments, as did the mean shell size of sexual stages. Size-dependent sex change was indicated by L 50 occurring at smaller sizes in treatments than controls, suggesting an earlier switch to females. Mean shell size of P. vulgata neuters changed little under different levels of exploitation, while males and females both decreased markedly in size with exploitation. No differences were detected in the relative abundances of sexual stages, indicating some compensation for the removal of the bigger individuals via recruitment and sex change as no migratory patterns were detected between treatments. At the end of the experiment, 0-15 mm recruits were more abundant at one of the locations but no differences were detected between treatments. We conclude that sex change in P. vulgata can be induced at smaller sizes by reductions in density of the largest individuals reducing interage class competition. Knowledge of sex-change adaptation in exploited limpet populations should underpin strategies to counteract population decline and improve rocky shore conservation and resource management.

Positive correlation between genetic diversity and fitness in a large, well-connected metapopulation.

PubMed

Vandewoestijne, Sofie; Schtickzelle, Nicolas; Baguette, Michel

2008-11-05

Theory predicts that lower dispersal, and associated gene flow, leads to decreased genetic diversity in small isolated populations, which generates adverse consequences for fitness, and subsequently for demography. Here we report for the first time this effect in a well-connected natural butterfly metapopulation with high population densities at the edge of its distribution range. We demonstrate that: (1) lower genetic diversity was coupled to a sharp decrease in adult lifetime expectancy, a key component of individual fitness; (2) genetic diversity was positively correlated to the number of dispersing individuals (indicative of landscape functional connectivity) and adult population size; (3) parameters inferred from capture-recapture procedures (population size and dispersal events between patches) correlated much better with genetic diversity than estimates usually used as surrogates for population size (patch area and descriptors of habitat quality) and dispersal (structural connectivity index). Our results suggest that dispersal is a very important factor maintaining genetic diversity. Even at a very local spatial scale in a metapopulation consisting of large high-density populations interconnected by considerable dispersal rates, genetic diversity can be decreased and directly affect the fitness of individuals. From a biodiversity conservation perspective, this study clearly shows the benefits of both in-depth demographic and genetic analyses. Accordingly, to ensure the long-term survival of populations, conservation actions should not be blindly based on patch area and structural isolation. This result may be especially pertinent for species at their range margins, particularly in this era of rapid environmental change.

Floral display size, conspecific density and florivory affect fruit set in natural populations of Phlox hirsuta, an endangered species

PubMed Central

Ruane, Lauren G.; Rotzin, Andrew T.; Congleton, Philip H.

2014-01-01

Background and Aims Natural variation in fruit and seed set may be explained by factors that affect the composition of pollen grains on stigmas. Self-incompatible species require compatible outcross pollen grains to produce seeds. The siring success of outcross pollen grains, however, can be hindered if self (or other incompatible) pollen grains co-occur on stigmas. This study identifies factors that determine fruit set in Phlox hirsuta, a self-sterile endangered species that is prone to self-pollination, and its associated fitness costs. Methods Multiple linear regressions were used to identify factors that explain variation in percentage fruit set within three of the five known populations of this endangered species. Florivorous beetle density, petal colour, floral display size, local conspecific density and pre-dispersal seed predation were quantified and their effects on the ability of flowers to produce fruits were assessed. Key Results In all three populations, percentage fruit set decreased as florivorous beetle density increased and as floral display size increased. The effect of floral display size on fruit set, however, often depended on the density of nearby conspecific plants. High local conspecific densities offset – even reversed – the negative effects of floral display size on percentage fruit set. Seed predation by mammals decreased fruit set in one population. Conclusions The results indicate that seed production in P. hirsuta can be maximized by selectively augmenting populations in areas containing isolated large plants, by reducing the population sizes of florivorous beetles and by excluding mammals that consume unripe fruits. PMID:24557879

Changes in seasonal climate outpace compensatory density-dependence in eastern brook trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bassar, Ronald D.; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Nislow, Keith H.; Whiteley, Andrew R.

2016-01-01

Understanding how multiple extrinsic (density-independent) factors and intrinsic (density-dependent) mechanisms influence population dynamics has become increasingly urgent in the face of rapidly changing climates. It is particularly unclear how multiple extrinsic factors with contrasting effects among seasons are related to declines in population numbers and changes in mean body size and whether there is a strong role for density-dependence. The primary goal of this study was to identify the roles of seasonal variation in climate driven environmental direct effects (mean stream flow and temperature) versus density-dependence on population size and mean body size in eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We use data from a 10-year capture-mark-recapture study of eastern brook trout in four streams in Western Massachusetts, USA to parameterize a discrete-time population projection model. The model integrates matrix modeling techniques used to characterize discrete population structures (age, habitat type and season) with integral projection models (IPMs) that characterize demographic rates as continuous functions of organismal traits (in this case body size). Using both stochastic and deterministic analyses we show that decreases in population size are due to changes in stream flow and temperature and that these changes are larger than what can be compensated for through density-dependent responses. We also show that the declines are due mostly to increasing mean stream temperatures decreasing the survival of the youngest age class. In contrast, increases in mean body size over the same period are the result of indirect changes in density with a lesser direct role of climate-driven environmental change.

Rapid population divergence in thermal reaction norms for an invading species: breaking the temperature-size rule.

PubMed

Kingsolver, J G; Massie, K R; Ragland, G J; Smith, M H

2007-05-01

The temperature-size rule is a common pattern of phenotypic plasticity in which higher temperature during development results in a smaller adult body size (i.e. a thermal reaction norm with negative slope). Examples and exceptions to the rule are known in multiple groups of organisms, but rapid population differentiation in the temperature-size rule has not been explored. Here we examine the genetic and parental contributions to population differentiation in thermal reaction norms for size, development time and survival in the Cabbage White Butterfly Pieris rapae, for two geographical populations that have likely diverged within the past 150 years. We used split-sibship experiments with two temperature treatments (warm and cool) for P. rapae from Chapel Hill, NC, and from Seattle, WA. Mixed-effect model analyses demonstrate significant genetic differences between NC and WA populations for adult size and for thermal reaction norms for size. Mean adult mass was 12-24% greater in NC than in WA populations for both temperature treatments; mean size was unaffected or decreased with temperature (the temperature-size rule) for the WA population, but size increased with temperature for the NC population. Our study shows that the temperature-size rule and related thermal reaction norms can evolve rapidly within species in natural field conditions. Rapid evolutionary divergence argues against the existence of a simple, general mechanistic constraint as the underlying cause of the temperature-size rule.

Do social groups prevent Allee effect related extinctions?: The case of wild dogs.

PubMed

Angulo, Elena; Rasmussen, Greg S A; Macdonald, David W; Courchamp, Franck

2013-03-15

Allee effects may arise as the number of individuals decreases, thereby reducing opportunities for cooperation and constraining individual fitness, which can lead to population decrease and extinction. Obligate cooperative breeders rely on a minimum group size to subsist and are thus expected to be particularly susceptible to Allee effects. Although Allee effects in some components of the fitness of cooperative breeders have been detected, empirical confirmation of population extinction due to Allee effects is lacking yet. Because previous studies of cooperation have focused on Allee effects affecting individual fitness (component Allee effect) and population dynamics (demographic Allee effect), we argue that a new conceptual level of Allee effect, the group Allee effect, is needed to understand the special case of cooperative breeders. We hypothesize that whilst individuals are vulnerable to Allee effects, the group could act as a buffer against population extinction if: (i) individual fitness and group fate depend on group size but not on population size and (ii) group size is independent of population size (that is, at any population size, populations comprise both large and small groups). We found that both conditions apply for the African wild dog, Lycaon pictus, and data on this species in Zimbabwe support our hypothesis. The importance of groups in obligate cooperative breeders needs to be accounted for within the Allee effect framework, through a group Allee effect, because the group mediates the relationship between individual fitness and population performance. Whilst sociality is associated with a high probability of Allee effects, we suggest that cooperative individuals organized in relatively autonomous groups within populations might be behaving in ways that diminish extinction risks caused by Allee effects. This study opens new avenues to a better understanding of the role of the evolution of group-living on the probability of extinction faced by social species.

Biomass, size, and trophic status of top predators in the Pacific Ocean.

PubMed

Sibert, John; Hampton, John; Kleiber, Pierre; Maunder, Mark

2006-12-15

Fisheries have removed at least 50 million tons of tuna and other top-level predators from the Pacific Ocean pelagic ecosystem since 1950, leading to concerns about a catastrophic reduction in population biomass and the collapse of oceanic food chains. We analyzed all available data from Pacific tuna fisheries for 1950-2004 to provide comprehensive estimates of fishery impacts on population biomass and size structure. Current biomass ranges among species from 36 to 91% of the biomass predicted in the absence of fishing, a level consistent with or higher than standard fisheries management targets. Fish larger than 175 centimeters fork length have decreased from 5% to approximately 1% of the total population. The trophic level of the catch has decreased slightly, but there is no detectable decrease in the trophic level of the population. These results indicate substantial, though not catastrophic, impacts of fisheries on these top-level predators and minor impacts on the ecosystem in the Pacific Ocean.

Group selections among laboratory populations of Tribolium.

PubMed

Wade, M J

1976-12-01

Selection at the population level or group selection is defined as genetic change that is brought about or maintained by the differential extinction and/or proliferation of populations. Group selection for both increased and decreased adult population size was carried out among laboratory populations of Tribolium castaneum at 37-day intervals. The effect of individual selection within populations on adult population size was evaluated in an additional control series of populations. The response in the group selection treatments occurred rapidly, within three or four generations, and was large in magnitude, at times differing from the controls by over 200%. This response to selection at the populational level occurred despite strong individual selection which caused a decline in the mean size of the control populations from over 200 adults to near 50 adults in nine 37-day intervals. "Assay" experiments indicated that selective changes in fecundity, developmental time, body weight, and cannibalism rates were responsible in part for the observed treatment differences in adult population size. These findings have implications in terms of speciation in organisms whose range is composed of many partially isolated local populations.

Sneaker Males Affect Fighter Male Body Size and Sexual Size Dimorphism in Salmon.

PubMed

Weir, Laura K; Kindsvater, Holly K; Young, Kyle A; Reynolds, John D

2016-08-01

Large male body size is typically favored by directional sexual selection through competition for mates. However, alternative male life-history phenotypes, such as "sneakers," should decrease the strength of sexual selection acting on body size of large "fighter" males. We tested this prediction with salmon species; in southern populations, where sneakers are common, fighter males should be smaller than in northern populations, where sneakers are rare, leading to geographical clines in sexual size dimorphism (SSD). Consistent with our prediction, fighter male body size and SSD (fighter male∶female size) increase with latitude in species with sneaker males (Atlantic salmon Salmo salar and masu salmon Oncorhynchus masou) but not in species without sneakers (chum salmon Oncorhynchus keta and pink salmon Oncorhynchus gorbuscha). This is the first evidence that sneaker males affect SSD across populations and species, and it suggests that alternative male mating strategies may shape the evolution of body size.

Estimating relative decline in populations of subterranean termites (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae) due to baiting.

PubMed

Evans, T A

2001-12-01

Although mark-recapture protocols produce inaccurate population estimates of termite colonies, they might be employed to estimate a relative change in colony size. This possibility was tested using two Australian, mound-building, wood-eating, subterranean Coptotermes species. Three different toxicants delivered in baits were used to decrease (but not eliminate) colony size, and a single mark-recapture protocol was used to estimate pre- and postbaiting population sizes. For both species, the numbers of termites retrieved from bait stations varied widely, resulting in no significant differences in the numbers of termites sampled between treatments in either the pre- or postbaiting protocols. There were significantly fewer termites sampled in all treatments, controls included, in the postbaiting protocol compared with the pre-, suggesting a seasonal change in forager numbers. The comparison of population estimates shows a large decrease in toxicant treated colonies compared with little change in control colonies, which suggests that estimating the relative decline in population size using mark-recapture protocols might to be possible. However, the change in population estimate was due entirely to the significantly lower recapture rate in the control colonies relative to the toxicant treated colonies, as numbers of unmarked termites did not change between treatments. The population estimates should be treated with caution because low recapture rates produce dubious population estimates and, in some cases, postbaiting mark-recapture population estimates could be much greater than those at prebaiting, despite consumption of bait in sufficient quantities to cause population decline. A possible interaction between fat-stain markers and toxicants should be investigated if mark-recapture population estimates are used. Alternative methods of population change are advised, along with other indirect measures.

Long-term impacts of human harvesting on shellfish: North Iberian top shells and limpets from the Upper Palaeolithic to the present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turrero, Pablo; Muñoz-Colmenero, A. Marta; Prado, Andrea; Garcia-Vazquez, Eva

2014-11-01

Humans have contributed to phenotypic and demographic changes in their prey from very early on in the colonization of Europe, including the harvesting of shellfish in coastal ecosystems. We estimated trends in population growth (variation in the number of individuals) from DNA sequences of modern specimens in two North Iberian molluscs, top shells (Osilinus lineatus, from 24 sequences and 14 haplotypes) and limpets (Patella vulgata, taken from the bibliography), which were subjected to very different levels of harvesting pressure during the Upper Palaeolithic (~ 20000 to ~ 6000 years ago). The less harvested Osilinus top shells experienced fluctuations in population numbers coincident with climatic oscillations. Patella limpets, which were harvested in greater numbers, suffered clear and uninterrupted decreases in their numbers during the Upper Palaeolithic. These trends coincided with morphological changes in shell size (length or width) in the same direction (i.e., shell size decreased when population size decreased and vice versa). The differing trends seen in taxa subjected to different intensities of harvesting pressure suggest that climate effects were overcome by anthropogenic selection (leading to a smaller average length) in limpets. We suggest that intense fishing pressure may have induced irreversible shell length decreases in the most exploited species.

Pollen limitation and Allee effect related to population size and sex ratio in the endangered Ottelia acuminata (Hydrocharitaceae): implications for conservation and reintroduction.

PubMed

Xia, J; Lu, J; Wang, Z X; Hao, B B; Wang, H B; Liu, G H

2013-03-01

Small populations may suffer more severe pollen limitation and result in Allee effects. Sex ratio may also affect pollination and reproduction success in dioecious species, which is always overlooked when performing conservation and reintroduction tasks. In this study, we investigated whether and how population size and sex ratio affected pollen limitation and reproduction in the endangered Ottelia acuminata, a dioecious submerged species. We established experimental plots with increasing population size and male sex ratio. We observed insect visitation, estimated pollen limitation by hand-pollinations and counted fruit set and seed production per fruit. Fruit set and seed production decreased significantly in small populations due to pollinator scarcity and thus suffered more severe pollen limitation. Although frequently visited, female-biased larger populations also suffered severe pollen limitation due to few effective visits and insufficient pollen availability. Rising male ratio enhanced pollination service and hence reproduction. Unexpectedly, pollinator preferences did not cause reduced reproduction in male-biased populations because of high pollen availability. However, reproductive outputs showed more variability in severe male-biased populations. Our results revealed two component Allee effects in fruit set and seed production, mediated by pollen limitation in O. acuminata. Moreover, reproduction decreased significantly in larger female-biased populations, increasing the risk of an Allee effect. © 2012 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Positive correlation between genetic diversity and fitness in a large, well-connected metapopulation

PubMed Central

Vandewoestijne, Sofie; Schtickzelle, Nicolas; Baguette, Michel

2008-01-01

Background Theory predicts that lower dispersal, and associated gene flow, leads to decreased genetic diversity in small isolated populations, which generates adverse consequences for fitness, and subsequently for demography. Here we report for the first time this effect in a well-connected natural butterfly metapopulation with high population densities at the edge of its distribution range. Results We demonstrate that: (1) lower genetic diversity was coupled to a sharp decrease in adult lifetime expectancy, a key component of individual fitness; (2) genetic diversity was positively correlated to the number of dispersing individuals (indicative of landscape functional connectivity) and adult population size; (3) parameters inferred from capture-recapture procedures (population size and dispersal events between patches) correlated much better with genetic diversity than estimates usually used as surrogates for population size (patch area and descriptors of habitat quality) and dispersal (structural connectivity index). Conclusion Our results suggest that dispersal is a very important factor maintaining genetic diversity. Even at a very local spatial scale in a metapopulation consisting of large high-density populations interconnected by considerable dispersal rates, genetic diversity can be decreased and directly affect the fitness of individuals. From a biodiversity conservation perspective, this study clearly shows the benefits of both in-depth demographic and genetic analyses. Accordingly, to ensure the long-term survival of populations, conservation actions should not be blindly based on patch area and structural isolation. This result may be especially pertinent for species at their range margins, particularly in this era of rapid environmental change. PMID:18986515

Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater Yellowstone ecosystem

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjornlie, Daniel D.; van Manen, Frank T.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Costello, Cecily M.

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size.

Whitebark Pine, Population Density, and Home-Range Size of Grizzly Bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Bjornlie, Daniel D.; Van Manen, Frank T.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Costello, Cecily M.

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size. PMID:24520354

Whitebark pine, population density, and home-range size of grizzly bears in the greater yellowstone ecosystem.

PubMed

Bjornlie, Daniel D; Van Manen, Frank T; Ebinger, Michael R; Haroldson, Mark A; Thompson, Daniel J; Costello, Cecily M

2014-01-01

Changes in life history traits of species can be an important indicator of potential factors influencing populations. For grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), recent decline of whitebark pine (WBP; Pinus albicaulis), an important fall food resource, has been paired with a slowing of population growth following two decades of robust population increase. These observations have raised questions whether resource decline or density-dependent processes may be associated with changes in population growth. Distinguishing these effects based on changes in demographic rates can be difficult. However, unlike the parallel demographic responses expected from both decreasing food availability and increasing population density, we hypothesized opposing behavioral responses of grizzly bears with regard to changes in home-range size. We used the dynamic changes in food resources and population density of grizzly bears as a natural experiment to examine hypotheses regarding these potentially competing influences on grizzly bear home-range size. We found that home-range size did not increase during the period of whitebark pine decline and was not related to proportion of whitebark pine in home ranges. However, female home-range size was negatively associated with an index of population density. Our data indicate that home-range size of grizzly bears in the GYE is not associated with availability of WBP, and, for female grizzly bears, increasing population density may constrain home-range size.

Transgenerational Adaptation to Pollution Changes Energy Allocation in Populations of Nematodes.

PubMed

Goussen, Benoit; Péry, Alexandre R R; Bonzom, Jean-Marc; Beaudouin, Rémy

2015-10-20

Assessing the evolutionary responses of long-term exposed populations requires multigeneration ecotoxicity tests. However, the analysis of the data from these tests is not straightforward. Mechanistic models allow the in-depth analysis of the variation of physiological traits over many generations, by quantifying the trend of the physiological and toxicological parameters of the model. In the present study, a bioenergetic mechanistic model has been used to assess the evolution of two populations of the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans in control conditions or exposed to uranium. This evolutionary pressure resulted in a brood size reduction of 60%. We showed an adaptation of individuals of both populations to experimental conditions (increase of maximal length, decrease of growth rate, decrease of brood size, and decrease of the elimination rate). In addition, differential evolution was also highlighted between the two populations once the maternal effects had been diminished after several generations. Thus, individuals that were greater in maximal length, but with apparently a greater sensitivity to uranium were selected in the uranium population. In this study, we showed that this bioenergetics mechanistic modeling approach provided a precise, certain, and powerful analysis of the life strategy of C. elegans populations exposed to heavy metals resulting in an evolutionary pressure across successive generations.

Directionality theory and the evolution of body size.

PubMed

Demetrius, L

2000-12-07

Directionality theory, a dynamic theory of evolution that integrates population genetics with demography, is based on the concept of evolutionary entropy, a measure of the variability in the age of reproducing individuals in a population. The main tenets of the theory are three principles relating the response to the ecological constraints a population experiences, with trends in entropy as the population evolves under mutation and natural selection. (i) Stationary size or fluctuations around a stationary size (bounded growth): a unidirectional increase in entropy; (ii) prolonged episodes of exponential growth (unbounded growth), large population size: a unidirectional decrease in entropy; and (iii) prolonged episodes of exponential growth (unbounded growth), small population size: random, non-directional change in entropy. We invoke these principles, together with an allometric relationship between entropy, and the morphometric variable body size, to provide evolutionary explanations of three empirical patterns pertaining to trends in body size, namely (i) Cope's rule, the tendency towards size increase within phyletic lineages; (ii) the island rule, which pertains to changes in body size that occur as species migrate from mainland populations to colonize island habitats; and (iii) Bergmann's rule, the tendency towards size increase with increasing latitude. The observation that these ecotypic patterns can be explained in terms of the directionality principles for entropy underscores the significance of evolutionary entropy as a unifying concept in forging a link between micro-evolution, the dynamics of gene frequency change, and macro-evolution, dynamic changes in morphometric variables.

Fishing-induced life-history changes degrade and destabilize harvested ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuparinen, Anna; Boit, Alice; Valdovinos, Fernanda S.; Lassaux, Hélène; Martinez, Neo D.

2016-02-01

Fishing is widely known to magnify fluctuations in targeted populations. These fluctuations are correlated with population shifts towards young, small, and more quickly maturing individuals. However, the existence and nature of the mechanistic basis for these correlations and their potential ecosystem impacts remain highly uncertain. Here, we elucidate this basis and associated impacts by showing how fishing can increase fluctuations in fishes and their ecosystem, particularly when coupled with decreasing body sizes and advancing maturation characteristic of the life-history changes induced by fishing. More specifically, using an empirically parameterized network model of a well-studied lake ecosystem, we show how fishing may both increase fluctuations in fish abundances and also, when accompanied by decreasing body size of adults, further decrease fish abundance and increase temporal variability of fishes’ food resources and their ecosystem. In contrast, advanced maturation has relatively little effect except to increase variability in juvenile populations. Our findings illustrate how different mechanisms underlying life-history changes that may arise as evolutionary responses to intensive, size-selective fishing can rapidly and continuously destabilize and degrade ecosystems even after fishing has ceased. This research helps better predict how life-history changes may reduce fishes’ resilience to fishing and ecosystems’ resistance to environmental variations.

Fishing-induced life-history changes degrade and destabilize harvested ecosystems.

PubMed

Kuparinen, Anna; Boit, Alice; Valdovinos, Fernanda S; Lassaux, Hélène; Martinez, Neo D

2016-02-26

Fishing is widely known to magnify fluctuations in targeted populations. These fluctuations are correlated with population shifts towards young, small, and more quickly maturing individuals. However, the existence and nature of the mechanistic basis for these correlations and their potential ecosystem impacts remain highly uncertain. Here, we elucidate this basis and associated impacts by showing how fishing can increase fluctuations in fishes and their ecosystem, particularly when coupled with decreasing body sizes and advancing maturation characteristic of the life-history changes induced by fishing. More specifically, using an empirically parameterized network model of a well-studied lake ecosystem, we show how fishing may both increase fluctuations in fish abundances and also, when accompanied by decreasing body size of adults, further decrease fish abundance and increase temporal variability of fishes' food resources and their ecosystem. In contrast, advanced maturation has relatively little effect except to increase variability in juvenile populations. Our findings illustrate how different mechanisms underlying life-history changes that may arise as evolutionary responses to intensive, size-selective fishing can rapidly and continuously destabilize and degrade ecosystems even after fishing has ceased. This research helps better predict how life-history changes may reduce fishes' resilience to fishing and ecosystems' resistance to environmental variations.

The final size of a SARS epidemic model without quarantine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Sze-Bi; Roeger, Lih-Ing W.

2007-09-01

In this article, we present the continuing work on a SARS model without quarantine by Hsu and Hsieh [Sze-Bi Hsu, Ying-Hen Hsieh, Modeling intervention measures and severity-dependent public response during severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak, SIAM J. Appl. Math. 66 (2006) 627-647]. An "acting basic reproductive number" [psi] is used to predict the final size of the susceptible population. We find the relation among the final susceptible population size S[infinity], the initial susceptible population S0, and [psi]. If [psi]>1, the disease will prevail and the final size of the susceptible, S[infinity], becomes zero; therefore, everyone in the population will be infected eventually. If [psi]<1, the disease dies out, and then S[infinity]>0 which means part of the population will never be infected. Also, when S[infinity]>0, S[infinity] is increasing with respect to the initial susceptible population S0, and decreasing with respect to the acting basic reproductive number [psi].

Drought survival is a threshold function of habitat size and population density in a fish metapopulation.

PubMed

White, Richard S A; McHugh, Peter A; McIntosh, Angus R

2016-10-01

Because smaller habitats dry more frequently and severely during droughts, habitat size is likely a key driver of survival in populations during climate change and associated increased extreme drought frequency. Here, we show that survival in populations during droughts is a threshold function of habitat size driven by an interaction with population density in metapopulations of the forest pool dwelling fish, Neochanna apoda. A mark-recapture study involving 830 N. apoda individuals during a one-in-seventy-year extreme drought revealed that survival during droughts was high for populations occupying pools deeper than 139 mm, but declined steeply in shallower pools. This threshold was caused by an interaction between increasing population density and drought magnitude associated with decreasing habitat size, which acted synergistically to increase physiological stress and mortality. This confirmed two long-held hypotheses, firstly concerning the interactive role of population density and physiological stress, herein driven by habitat size, and secondly, the occurrence of drought survival thresholds. Our results demonstrate how survival in populations during droughts will depend strongly on habitat size and highlight that minimum habitat size thresholds will likely be required to maximize survival as the frequency and intensity of droughts are projected to increase as a result of global climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Randomness and diversity matter in the maintenance of the public resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Aizhi; Zhang, Yanling; Chen, Xiaojie; Sun, Changyin

2017-03-01

Most previous models about the public goods game usually assume two possible strategies, i.e., investing all or nothing. The real-life situation is rarely all or nothing. In this paper, we consider that multiple strategies are adopted in a well-mixed population, and each strategy represents an investment to produce the public goods. Past efforts have found that randomness matters in the evolution of fairness in the ultimatum game. In the framework involving no other mechanisms, we study how diversity and randomness influence the average investment of the population defined by the mean value of all individuals' strategies. The level of diversity is increased by increasing the strategy number, and the level of randomness is increased by increasing the mutation probability, or decreasing the population size or the selection intensity. We find that a higher level of diversity and a higher level of randomness lead to larger average investment and favor more the evolution of cooperation. Under weak selection, the average investment changes very little with the strategy number, the population size, and the mutation probability. Under strong selection, the average investment changes very little with the strategy number and the population size, but changes a lot with the mutation probability. Under intermediate selection, the average investment increases significantly with the strategy number and the mutation probability, and decreases significantly with the population size. These findings are meaningful to study how to maintain the public resource.

Class Size, School Size and the Size of the School Network

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coupé, Tom; Olefir, Anna; Alonso, Juan Diego

2016-01-01

In many transition countries, including Ukraine, decreases in population and fertility have led to substantial falls in the number of school-aged children. As a consequence, these countries now have school networks that consist of many small schools, leading many countries to consider reorganizing their networks by closing smaller schools and…

Value of information methods to design a clinical trial in a small population to optimise a health economic utility function.

PubMed

Pearce, Michael; Hee, Siew Wan; Madan, Jason; Posch, Martin; Day, Simon; Miller, Frank; Zohar, Sarah; Stallard, Nigel

2018-02-08

Most confirmatory randomised controlled clinical trials (RCTs) are designed with specified power, usually 80% or 90%, for a hypothesis test conducted at a given significance level, usually 2.5% for a one-sided test. Approval of the experimental treatment by regulatory agencies is then based on the result of such a significance test with other information to balance the risk of adverse events against the benefit of the treatment to future patients. In the setting of a rare disease, recruiting sufficient patients to achieve conventional error rates for clinically reasonable effect sizes may be infeasible, suggesting that the decision-making process should reflect the size of the target population. We considered the use of a decision-theoretic value of information (VOI) method to obtain the optimal sample size and significance level for confirmatory RCTs in a range of settings. We assume the decision maker represents society. For simplicity we assume the primary endpoint to be normally distributed with unknown mean following some normal prior distribution representing information on the anticipated effectiveness of the therapy available before the trial. The method is illustrated by an application in an RCT in haemophilia A. We explicitly specify the utility in terms of improvement in primary outcome and compare this with the costs of treating patients, both financial and in terms of potential harm, during the trial and in the future. The optimal sample size for the clinical trial decreases as the size of the population decreases. For non-zero cost of treating future patients, either monetary or in terms of potential harmful effects, stronger evidence is required for approval as the population size increases, though this is not the case if the costs of treating future patients are ignored. Decision-theoretic VOI methods offer a flexible approach with both type I error rate and power (or equivalently trial sample size) depending on the size of the future population for whom the treatment under investigation is intended. This might be particularly suitable for small populations when there is considerable information about the patient population.

Does population size affect genetic diversity? A test with sympatric lizard species.

PubMed

Hague, M T J; Routman, E J

2016-01-01

Genetic diversity is a fundamental requirement for evolution and adaptation. Nonetheless, the forces that maintain patterns of genetic variation in wild populations are not completely understood. Neutral theory posits that genetic diversity will increase with a larger effective population size and the decreasing effects of drift. However, the lack of compelling evidence for a relationship between genetic diversity and population size in comparative studies has generated some skepticism over the degree that neutral sequence evolution drives overall patterns of diversity. The goal of this study was to measure genetic diversity among sympatric populations of related lizard species that differ in population size and other ecological factors. By sampling related species from a single geographic location, we aimed to reduce nuisance variance in genetic diversity owing to species differences, for example, in mutation rates or historical biogeography. We compared populations of zebra-tailed lizards and western banded geckos, which are abundant and short-lived, to chuckwallas and desert iguanas, which are less common and long-lived. We assessed population genetic diversity at three protein-coding loci for each species. Our results were consistent with the predictions of neutral theory, as the abundant species almost always had higher levels of haplotype diversity than the less common species. Higher population genetic diversity in the abundant species is likely due to a combination of demographic factors, including larger local population sizes (and presumably effective population sizes), faster generation times and high rates of gene flow with other populations.

The eco-evolutionary responses of a generalist consumer to resource competition.

PubMed

Abrams, Peter A

2012-10-01

This article explores the combined evolutionary and ecological responses of resource uptake abilities in a generalist consumer to exploitative competition for one resource using a simple 2-resource model. It compares the sizes of ecologically and evolutionarily caused changes in population densities in cases where the original consumer has a strong or a weak trade-off in its abilities to consume the two resources. The analysis also compares the responses of the original species to competition when the competitor's population size is or is not limited by the shared resource. Although divergence in resource use traits in the resident generalist consumer is expected under all scenarios when resources are substitutable, the changes in population densities of the resources and resident consumer frequently differ between scenarios. The population of the original consumer often decreases as a result of its own adaptive divergence, and this decrease is often much greater than the initial ecological decrease. If the evolving consumer has a strong trade-off, the overlapped resource increases in equilibrium population density in response to being consumed by a generalist competitor. Some of these predictions differ qualitatively in alternative scenarios involving sustained variation in population densities or nutritionally essential resources. © 2012 The Author(s). Evolution© 2012 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Can Ingestion of Lead Shot and Poisons Change Population Trends of Three European Birds: Grey Partridge, Common Buzzard, and Red Kite?

PubMed Central

Meyer, Carolyn B.; Meyer, Joseph S.; Francisco, Alex B.; Holder, Jennifer; Verdonck, Frederik

2016-01-01

Little is known about the magnitude of the effects of lead shot ingestion alone or combined with poisons (e.g., in bait or seeds/granules containing pesticides) on population size, growth, and extinction of non-waterbird avian species that ingest these substances. We used population models to create example scenarios demonstrating how changes in these parameters might affect three susceptible species: grey partridge (Perdix perdix), common buzzard (Buteo buteo), and red kite (Milvus milvus). We added or subtracted estimates of mortality due to lead shot ingestion (4–16% of mortality, depending on species) and poisons (4–46% of mortality) reported in the UK or France to observed mortality of studied populations after models were calibrated to observed population trends. Observed trends were decreasing for partridge (in continental Europe), stable for buzzard (in Germany), and increasing for red kite (in Wales). Although lead shot ingestion and poison at modeled levels did not change the trend direction for the three species, they reduced population size and slowed population growth. Lead shot ingestion at modeled rates reduced population size of partridges by 10%, and when combined with bait and pesticide poisons, by 18%. For buzzards, decrease in mean population size by lead shot and poisons combined was much smaller (≤ 1%). The red kite population has been recovering; however, modeled lead shot ingestion reduced its annual growth rate from 6.5% to 4%, slowing recovery. If mortality from poisoned baits could be removed, the kite population could potentially increase at a rapid annual rate of 12%. The effects are somewhat higher if ingestion of these substances additionally causes sublethal reproductive impairment. These results have uncertainty but suggest that declining or recovering populations are most sensitive to lead shot or poison ingestion, and removal of poisoned baits can have a positive impact on recovering raptor populations that frequently feed on carrion. PMID:26799815

Can Ingestion of Lead Shot and Poisons Change Population Trends of Three European Birds: Grey Partridge, Common Buzzard, and Red Kite?

PubMed

Meyer, Carolyn B; Meyer, Joseph S; Francisco, Alex B; Holder, Jennifer; Verdonck, Frederik

2016-01-01

Little is known about the magnitude of the effects of lead shot ingestion alone or combined with poisons (e.g., in bait or seeds/granules containing pesticides) on population size, growth, and extinction of non-waterbird avian species that ingest these substances. We used population models to create example scenarios demonstrating how changes in these parameters might affect three susceptible species: grey partridge (Perdix perdix), common buzzard (Buteo buteo), and red kite (Milvus milvus). We added or subtracted estimates of mortality due to lead shot ingestion (4-16% of mortality, depending on species) and poisons (4-46% of mortality) reported in the UK or France to observed mortality of studied populations after models were calibrated to observed population trends. Observed trends were decreasing for partridge (in continental Europe), stable for buzzard (in Germany), and increasing for red kite (in Wales). Although lead shot ingestion and poison at modeled levels did not change the trend direction for the three species, they reduced population size and slowed population growth. Lead shot ingestion at modeled rates reduced population size of partridges by 10%, and when combined with bait and pesticide poisons, by 18%. For buzzards, decrease in mean population size by lead shot and poisons combined was much smaller (≤ 1%). The red kite population has been recovering; however, modeled lead shot ingestion reduced its annual growth rate from 6.5% to 4%, slowing recovery. If mortality from poisoned baits could be removed, the kite population could potentially increase at a rapid annual rate of 12%. The effects are somewhat higher if ingestion of these substances additionally causes sublethal reproductive impairment. These results have uncertainty but suggest that declining or recovering populations are most sensitive to lead shot or poison ingestion, and removal of poisoned baits can have a positive impact on recovering raptor populations that frequently feed on carrion.

Primary Care Physician Panel Size and Quality of Care: A Population-Based Study in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Dahrouge, Simone; Hogg, William; Younger, Jaime; Muggah, Elizabeth; Russell, Grant; Glazier, Richard H

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between the number of patients under a primary care physician's care (panel size) and primary care quality indicators. We conducted a cross-sectional, population-based study of fee-for-service and capitated interprofessional and non-interprofessional primary health care practices in Ontario, Canada between April 2008 and March 2010, encompassing 4,195 physicians with panel sizes ≥1,200 serving 8.3 million patients. Data was extracted from multiple linked, health-related administrative databases and covered 16 quality indicators spanning 5 dimensions of care: access, continuity, comprehensiveness, and evidence-based indicators of cancer screening and chronic disease management. The likelihood of being up-to-date on cervical, colorectal, and breast cancer screening showed relative decreases of 7.9% (P <.001), 5.9% (P = .01), and 4.6% (P <.001), respectively, with increasing panel size (from 1,200 to 3,900). Eight chronic care indicators (4 medication-based and 4 screening-based) showed no significant association with panel size. The likelihood of individuals with a new diagnosis of congestive heart failure having an echocardiogram, however, increased by a relative 8.1% (P <.001) with higher panel size. Increasing panel size was also associated with a 10.8% relative increase in hospitalization rates for ambulatory-care-sensitive conditions (P = .04) and a 10.8% decrease in non-urgent emergency department visits (P = .004). Continuity was highest with medium panel sizes (P <.001), and comprehensiveness had a small decrease (P = .03) with increasing panel size. Increasing panel size was associated with small decreases in cancer screening, continuity, and comprehensiveness, but showed no consistent relationships with chronic disease management or access indicators. We found no panel size threshold above which quality of care suffered. © 2016 Annals of Family Medicine, Inc.

Match or mismatch: the influence of phenology on size-dependent life history and divergence in population structure

USGS Publications Warehouse

Borcherding, Jost; Beeck, Peter; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Scharf, Werner R.

2010-01-01

Summary 1. In gape-limited predators, body size asymmetries determine the outcome of predator-prey interactions. Due to ontogenetic changes in body size, the intensity of intra- and interspecific interactions may change rapidly between the match situation of a predator-prey system and the mismatch situation in which competition, including competition with the prey, dominates. 2. Based on a physiologically structured population model using the European perch (Perca fluviatilis), analysis was performed on how prey density (bream, Abramis brama), initial size differences in the young-of-the-year (YOY) age cohort of the predator, and phenology (time-gap in hatching of predator and prey) influence the size structure of the predator cohort. 3. In relation to the seasonality of reproduction, the match situation of the predator-prey system occurred when perch hatched earlier than bream and when no gape-size limitations existed, leading to decreased size divergence in the predator age cohort. Decreased size divergence was also found when bream hatched much earlier than perch, preventing perch predation on bream occurring, which, in turn, increased the competitive interaction of the perch with bream for the common prey, zooplankton; i.e. the mismatch situation in which also the mean size of the age cohort of the predator decreased. 4. In between the total match and the mismatch, however, only the largest individuals of the perch age cohort were able to prey on the bream, while smaller conspecifics got trapped in competition with each other and with bream for zooplankton, leading to enlarged differences in growth that increased size divergence. 5. The modelling results were combined with 7 years of field data in a lake, where large differences in the length-frequency distribution of YOY perch were observed after their first summer. These field data corroborate that phenology and prey density per predator are important mechanisms in determining size differences within the YOY age cohort of the predator. 6. The results demonstrate that the switch between competitive interactions and a predator-prey relationship depended on phenology. This resulted in pronounced size differences in the YOY age cohort, which had far-reaching consequences for the entire predator population.

Future climate stimulates population out-breaks by relaxing constraints on reproduction.

PubMed

Heldt, Katherine A; Connell, Sean D; Anderson, Kathryn; Russell, Bayden D; Munguia, Pablo

2016-09-14

When conditions are stressful, reproduction and population growth are reduced, but when favourable, reproduction and population size can boom. Theory suggests climate change is an increasingly stressful environment, predicting extinctions or decreased abundances. However, if favourable conditions align, such as an increase in resources or release from competition and predation, future climate can fuel population growth. Tests of such population growth models and the mechanisms by which they are enabled are rare. We tested whether intergenerational increases in population size might be facilitated by adjustments in reproductive success to favourable environmental conditions in a large-scale mesocosm experiment. Herbivorous amphipod populations responded to future climate by increasing 20 fold, suggesting that future climate might relax environmental constraints on fecundity. We then assessed whether future climate reduces variation in mating success, boosting population fecundity and size. The proportion of gravid females doubled, and variance in phenotypic variation of male secondary sexual characters (i.e. gnathopods) was significantly reduced. While future climate can enhance individual growth and survival, it may also reduce constraints on mechanisms of reproduction such that enhanced intra-generational productivity and reproductive success transfers to subsequent generations. Where both intra and intergenerational production is enhanced, population sizes might boom.

Change in genetic size of small-closed populations: Lessons from a domestic mammal population.

PubMed

Ghafouri-Kesbi, Farhad

2010-10-01

The aim of this study was to monitor changes in genetic size of a small-closed population of Iranian Zandi sheep, by using pedigree information from animals born between 1991 and 2005. The genetic size was assessed by using measures based on the probability of identity-by-descend of genes (coancestry, f, and effective population size, N(e) ), as well as measures based on probability of gene origin (effective number of founders, f(e) , effective number of founder genomes, f(g) , and effective number of non-founder genomes, f(ne) ). Average coancestry, or the degree of genetic similarity of individuals, increased from 0.81% to 1.44% during the period 1993 to 2005, at the same time that N(e) decreased from 263 to 93. The observed trend for f(e) was irregular throughout the experiment in a way that f(e) was 68, 87, 77, 92, and 80 in 1993, 1996, 1999, 2002, and 2005, respectively. Simultaneously, f(g) , the most informative effective number, decreased from 61 to 35. The index of genetic diversity (GD) which was obtained from estimates of f(g) , decreased about 2% throughout the period studied. In addition, a noticeable reduction was observed in the estimates of f(ne) from 595 in 1993 to 61 in 2005. The higher than 1 ratio of f(e) to f(g) indicated the presence of bottlenecks and genetic drift in the development of this population of Zandi sheep. From 1993 to 1999, f(ne) was much higher than f(e) , thereby indicating that with respect to loss of genetic diversity, the unequal contribution of founders was more important than the random genetic drift in non-founder generations. Subsequently, random genetic drift in non-founder generations was the major reason for f(e) > f(ne) . The minimization of average coancestry in new reproductive individuals was recommended as a means of preserving the population against a further loss in genetic diversity.

Evaluating estimators for numbers of females with cubs-of-the-year in the Yellowstone grizzly bear population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cherry, S.; White, G.C.; Keating, K.A.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Schwartz, Charles C.

2007-01-01

Current management of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in Yellowstone National Park and surrounding areas requires annual estimation of the number of adult female bears with cubs-of-the-year. We examined the performance of nine estimators of population size via simulation. Data were simulated using two methods for different combinations of population size, sample size, and coefficient of variation of individual sighting probabilities. We show that the coefficient of variation does not, by itself, adequately describe the effects of capture heterogeneity, because two different distributions of capture probabilities can have the same coefficient of variation. All estimators produced biased estimates of population size with bias decreasing as effort increased. Based on the simulation results we recommend the Chao estimator for model M h be used to estimate the number of female bears with cubs of the year; however, the estimator of Chao and Shen may also be useful depending on the goals of the research.

Individualism in plant populations: using stochastic differential equations to model individual neighbourhood-dependent plant growth.

PubMed

Lv, Qiming; Schneider, Manuel K; Pitchford, Jonathan W

2008-08-01

We study individual plant growth and size hierarchy formation in an experimental population of Arabidopsis thaliana, within an integrated analysis that explicitly accounts for size-dependent growth, size- and space-dependent competition, and environmental stochasticity. It is shown that a Gompertz-type stochastic differential equation (SDE) model, involving asymmetric competition kernels and a stochastic term which decreases with the logarithm of plant weight, efficiently describes individual plant growth, competition, and variability in the studied population. The model is evaluated within a Bayesian framework and compared to its deterministic counterpart, and to several simplified stochastic models, using distributional validation. We show that stochasticity is an important determinant of size hierarchy and that SDE models outperform the deterministic model if and only if structural components of competition (asymmetry; size- and space-dependence) are accounted for. Implications of these results are discussed in the context of plant ecology and in more general modelling situations.

Effective size of density-dependent two-sex populations: the effect of mating systems.

PubMed

Myhre, A M; Engen, S; SAEther, B-E

2017-08-01

Density dependence in vital rates is a key feature affecting temporal fluctuations of natural populations. This has important implications for the rate of random genetic drift. Mating systems also greatly affect effective population sizes, but knowledge of how mating system and density regulation interact to affect random genetic drift is poor. Using theoretical models and simulations, we compare N e in short-lived, density-dependent animal populations with different mating systems. We study the impact of a fluctuating, density-dependent sex ratio and consider both a stable and a fluctuating environment. We find a negative relationship between annual N e /N and adult population size N due to density dependence, suggesting that loss of genetic variation is reduced at small densities. The magnitude of this decrease was affected by mating system and life history. A male-biased, density-dependent sex ratio reduces the rate of genetic drift compared to an equal, density-independent sex ratio, but a stochastic change towards male bias reduces the N e /N ratio. Environmental stochasticity amplifies temporal fluctuations in population size and is thus vital to consider in estimation of effective population sizes over longer time periods. Our results on the reduced loss of genetic variation at small densities, particularly in polygamous populations, indicate that density regulation may facilitate adaptive evolution at small population sizes. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

The relationship between national-level carbon dioxide emissions and population size: an assessment of regional and temporal variation, 1960-2005.

PubMed

Jorgenson, Andrew K; Clark, Brett

2013-01-01

This study examines the regional and temporal differences in the statistical relationship between national-level carbon dioxide emissions and national-level population size. The authors analyze panel data from 1960 to 2005 for a diverse sample of nations, and employ descriptive statistics and rigorous panel regression modeling techniques. Initial descriptive analyses indicate that all regions experienced overall increases in carbon emissions and population size during the 45-year period of investigation, but with notable differences. For carbon emissions, the sample of countries in Asia experienced the largest percent increase, followed by countries in Latin America, Africa, and lastly the sample of relatively affluent countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania combined. For population size, the sample of countries in Africa experienced the largest percent increase, followed countries in Latin America, Asia, and the combined sample of countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania. Findings for two-way fixed effects panel regression elasticity models of national-level carbon emissions indicate that the estimated elasticity coefficient for population size is much smaller for nations in Africa than for nations in other regions of the world. Regarding potential temporal changes, from 1960 to 2005 the estimated elasticity coefficient for population size decreased by 25% for the sample of Africa countries, 14% for the sample of Asia countries, 6.5% for the sample of Latin America countries, but remained the same in size for the sample of countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania. Overall, while population size continues to be the primary driver of total national-level anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, the findings for this study highlight the need for future research and policies to recognize that the actual impacts of population size on national-level carbon emissions differ across both time and region.

Demographic and genetic status of an isolated population of bog turtles (Glyptemys muhlenbergii): Implications for managing small populations of long-lived animals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pittman, Shannon E.; King, T.L.; Faurby, S.; Dorcas, M.E.

2011-01-01

In this study, we sought to determine the population stability and genetic diversity of one isolated population of the federally-threatened bog turtle (Glyptemys muhlenbergii) in North Carolina. Using capture-recapture data, we estimated adult survival and population growth rate from 1992 to 2007. We found that the population decreased from an estimated 36 adult turtles in 1994 to approximately 11 adult turtles in 2007. We found a constant adult survival of 0. 893 (SE = 0. 018, 95% confidence interval, 0. 853-0. 924) between 1992 and 2007. Using 18 microsatellite markers, we compared the genetic status of this population with five other bog turtle populations. The target population displayed allelic richness (4. 8 ?? 0. 5) and observed heterozygosity (0. 619 ?? 0. 064) within the range of the other bog turtle populations. Coalescent analysis of population growth rate, effective population size, and timing of population structuring event also indicated the genetics of the target population were comparable to the other populations studied. Estimates of effective population size were a proportion of the census size in all populations except the target population, in which the effective population size was larger than the census size (30 turtles vs. 11 turtles). We attribute the high genetic diversity in the target population to the presence of multiple generations of old turtles. This study illustrates that the demographic status of populations of long-lived species may not be reflected genetically if a decline occurred recently. Consequently, the genetic integrity of populations of long-lived animals experiencing rapid demographic bottlenecks may be preserved through conservation efforts effective in addressing demographic problems. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Diminishing-returns epistasis decreases adaptability along an evolutionary trajectory.

PubMed

Wünsche, Andrea; Dinh, Duy M; Satterwhite, Rebecca S; Arenas, Carolina Diaz; Stoebel, Daniel M; Cooper, Tim F

2017-03-01

Populations evolving in constant environments exhibit declining adaptability. Understanding the basis of this pattern could reveal underlying processes determining the repeatability of evolutionary outcomes. In principle, declining adaptability can be due to a decrease in the effect size of beneficial mutations, a decrease in the rate at which they occur, or some combination of both. By evolving Escherichia coli populations started from different steps along a single evolutionary trajectory, we show that declining adaptability is best explained by a decrease in the size of available beneficial mutations. This pattern reflected the dominant influence of negative genetic interactions that caused new beneficial mutations to confer smaller benefits in fitter genotypes. Genome sequencing revealed that starting genotypes that were more similar to one another did not exhibit greater similarity in terms of new beneficial mutations, supporting the view that epistasis acts globally, having a greater influence on the effect than on the identity of available mutations along an adaptive trajectory. Our findings provide support for a general mechanism that leads to predictable phenotypic evolutionary trajectories.

Effective Ice Particle Densities for Cold Anvil Cirrus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heymsfield, Andrew J.; Schmitt, Carl G.; Bansemer, Aaron; Baumgardner, Darrel; Weinstock, Elliot M.; Smith, Jessica

2002-01-01

This study derives effective ice particle densities from data collected from the NASA WB-57F aircraft near the tops of anvils during the Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers (CRYSTAL) Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (FACE) in southern Florida in July 2002. The effective density, defined as the ice particle mass divided by the volume of an equivalent diameter liquid sphere, is obtained for particle populations and single sizes containing mixed particle habits using measurements of condensed water content and particle size distributions. The mean effective densities for populations decrease with increasing slopes of the gamma size distributions fitted to the size distributions. The population-mean densities range from near 0.91 g/cu m to 0.15 g/cu m. Effective densities for single sizes obey a power-law with an exponent of about -0.55, somewhat less steep than found from earlier studies. Our interpretations apply to samples where particle sizes are generally below 200-300 microns in maximum dimension because of probe limitations.

Theoretical Study of near Neutrality. II. Effect of Subdivided Population Structure with Local Extinction and Recolonization

PubMed Central

Ohta, T.

1992-01-01

There are several unsolved problems concerning the model of nearly neutral mutations. One is the interaction of subdivided population structure and weak selection that spatially fluctuates. The model of nearly neutral mutations whose selection coefficient spatially fluctuates has been studied by adopting the island model with periodic extinction-recolonization. Both the number of colonies and the migration rate play significant roles in determining mutants' behavior, and selection is ineffective when the extinction-recolonization is frequent with low migration rate. In summary, the number of mutant substitutions decreases and the polymorphism increases by increasing the total population size, and/or decreasing the extinction-recolonization rate. However, by increasing the total size of the population, the mutant substitution rate does not become as low when compared with that in panmictic populations, because of the extinction-recolonization, especially when the migration rate is limited. It is also found that the model satisfactorily explains the contrasting patterns of molecular polymorphisms observed in sibling species of Drosophila, including heterozygosity, proportion of polymorphism and fixation index. PMID:1582566

Conservation of genetic uniqueness of populations may increase extinction likelihood of endangered species: the case of Australian mammals.

PubMed

Weeks, Andrew R; Stoklosa, Jakub; Hoffmann, Ary A

2016-01-01

As increasingly fragmented and isolated populations of threatened species become subjected to climate change, invasive species and other stressors, there is an urgent need to consider adaptive potential when making conservation decisions rather than focussing on past processes. In many cases, populations identified as unique and currently managed separately suffer increased risk of extinction through demographic and genetic processes. Other populations currently not at risk are likely to be on a trajectory where declines in population size and fitness soon appear inevitable. Using datasets from natural Australian mammal populations, we show that drift processes are likely to be driving uniqueness in populations of many threatened species as a result of small population size and fragmentation. Conserving and managing such remnant populations separately will therefore often decrease their adaptive potential and increase species extinction risk. These results highlight the need for a paradigm shift in conservation biology practise; strategies need to focus on the preservation of genetic diversity at the species level, rather than population, subspecies or evolutionary significant unit. The introduction of new genetic variants into populations through in situ translocation needs to be considered more broadly in conservation programs as a way of decreasing extinction risk by increasing neutral genetic diversity which may increase the adaptive potential of populations if adaptive variation is also increased.

The changing food outlet distributions and local contextual factors in the United States.

PubMed

Chen, Hsin-Jen; Wang, Youfa

2014-01-16

Little is known about the dynamics of the food outlet distributions associated with local contextual factors in the U.S. This study examines the changes in food stores/services at the 5-digit Zip Code Tabulated Area (ZCTA5) level in the U.S., and assesses contextual factors associated with the changes. Data from 27,878 ZCTA5s in the contiguous United States without an extreme change in the number of 6 types of food stores/services (supermarkets, small-size grocery stores, convenience stores, fresh/specialty food markets, carry-out restaurants, and full-service restaurants) were used. ZCTA5s' contextual factors were from the 2000 Census. Numbers of food stores/services were derived from the Census Business Pattern databases. Linear regression models assessed contextual factors' influences (racial/ethnic compositions, poverty rate, urbanization level, and foreign-born population%) on 1-year changes in food stores/services during 2000-2001, adjusted for population size, total business change, and census regions. Small-size grocery stores and fresh/specialty food markets increased more and convenience stores decreased more in Hispanic-predominant than other areas. Among supermarket-free places, new supermarkets were less likely to be introduced into black-predominant than white-predominant areas (odds ratio (OR) = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.30-0.92). However, among areas without the following type of store at baseline, supermarket (OR = 0.48 (0.33-0.70)), small-size grocery stores (OR = 1.32 (1.08-1.62)), and fresh/specialty food markets (OR = 0.70 (0.53-0.92)) were less likely to be introduced into areas of low foreign-born population than into areas of high foreign-born population. Higher poverty rate was associated with a greater decrease in supermarket, a less decrease in small-size grocery stores, and a less increase in carry-out restaurants (all p for trends <0.001). Urban areas experienced more increases in full-service and carry-out restaurants than suburban areas. Local area characteristics affect 1-year changes in food environment in the U.S. Hispanic population was associated with more food stores/services capable of supplying fresh food items. Black-predominant and poverty-afflicted areas had a greater decrease in supermarkets. Full-service and carry-out restaurants increased more in urban than suburban areas. Foreign-born population density was associated with introduction of grocery stores and fresh/specialty food markets into the areas.

The changing food outlet distributions and local contextual factors in the United States

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Little is known about the dynamics of the food outlet distributions associated with local contextual factors in the U.S. This study examines the changes in food stores/services at the 5-digit Zip Code Tabulated Area (ZCTA5) level in the U.S., and assesses contextual factors associated with the changes. Methods Data from 27,878 ZCTA5s in the contiguous United States without an extreme change in the number of 6 types of food stores/services (supermarkets, small-size grocery stores, convenience stores, fresh/specialty food markets, carry-out restaurants, and full-service restaurants) were used. ZCTA5s’ contextual factors were from the 2000 Census. Numbers of food stores/services were derived from the Census Business Pattern databases. Linear regression models assessed contextual factors’ influences (racial/ethnic compositions, poverty rate, urbanization level, and foreign-born population%) on 1-year changes in food stores/services during 2000–2001, adjusted for population size, total business change, and census regions. Results Small-size grocery stores and fresh/specialty food markets increased more and convenience stores decreased more in Hispanic-predominant than other areas. Among supermarket-free places, new supermarkets were less likely to be introduced into black-predominant than white-predominant areas (odds ratio (OR) = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.30-0.92). However, among areas without the following type of store at baseline, supermarket (OR = 0.48 (0.33-0.70)), small-size grocery stores (OR = 1.32 (1.08-1.62)), and fresh/specialty food markets (OR = 0.70 (0.53-0.92)) were less likely to be introduced into areas of low foreign-born population than into areas of high foreign-born population. Higher poverty rate was associated with a greater decrease in supermarket, a less decrease in small-size grocery stores, and a less increase in carry-out restaurants (all p for trends <0.001). Urban areas experienced more increases in full-service and carry-out restaurants than suburban areas. Conclusions Local area characteristics affect 1-year changes in food environment in the U.S. Hispanic population was associated with more food stores/services capable of supplying fresh food items. Black-predominant and poverty-afflicted areas had a greater decrease in supermarkets. Full-service and carry-out restaurants increased more in urban than suburban areas. Foreign-born population density was associated with introduction of grocery stores and fresh/specialty food markets into the areas. PMID:24433323

Sex ratio rather than population size affects genetic diversity in Antennaria dioica.

PubMed

Rosche, C; Schrieber, K; Lachmuth, S; Durka, W; Hirsch, H; Wagner, V; Schleuning, M; Hensen, I

2018-03-09

Habitat fragmentation and small population size can lead to genetic erosion in threatened plant populations. Classical theory implies that dioecy can counteract genetic erosion as it decreases the magnitude of inbreeding and genetic drift due to obligate outcrossing. However, in small populations, sex ratios may be strongly male- or female-biased, leading to substantial reductions in effective population size. This may theoretically result in a unimodal relationship between sex ratios and genetic diversity; yet, empirical studies on this relationship are scarce. Using AFLP markers, we studied genetic diversity, structure and differentiation in 14 highly fragmented Antennaria dioica populations from the Central European lowlands. Our analyses focused on the relationship between sex ratio, population size and genetic diversity. Although most populations were small (mean: 35.5 patches), genetic diversity was moderately high. We found evidence for isolation-by-distance, but overall differentiation of the populations was rather weak. Females dominated 11 populations, which overall resulted in a slightly female-biased sex ratio (61.5%). There was no significant relationship between population size and genetic diversity. The proportion of females was not unimodally but positively linearly related to genetic diversity. The high genetic diversity and low genetic differentiation suggest that A. dioica has been widely distributed in the Central European lowlands in the past, while fragmentation occurred only in the last decades. Sex ratio has more immediate consequences on genetic diversity than population size. An increasing proportion of females can increase genetic diversity in dioecious plants, probably due to a higher amount of sexual reproduction. © 2018 German Society for Plant Sciences and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Reduced Genetic Diversity and Increased Structure in American Mink on the Swedish Coast following Invasive Species Control.

PubMed

Zalewski, Andrzej; Zalewska, Hanna; Lunneryd, Sven-Gunnar; André, Carl; Mikusiński, Grzegorz

2016-01-01

Eradication and population reductions are often used to mitigate the negative impacts of non-native invasive species on native biodiversity. However, monitoring the effectiveness of non-native species control programmes is necessary to evaluate the efficacy of these measures. Genetic monitoring could provide valuable insights into temporal changes in demographic, ecological, and evolutionary processes in invasive populations being subject to control programmes. Such programmes should cause a decrease in effective population size and/or in genetic diversity of the targeted non-native species and an increase in population genetic structuring over time. We used microsatellite DNA data from American mink (Neovison vison) to determine whether the removal of this predator on the Koster Islands archipelago and the nearby Swedish mainland affected genetic variation over six consecutive years of mink culling by trappers as part of a population control programme. We found that on Koster Islands allelic richness decreased (from on average 4.53 to 3.55), genetic structuring increased, and effective population size did not change. In contrast, the mink population from the Swedish coast showed no changes in genetic diversity or structure, suggesting the stability of this population over 6 years of culling. Effective population size did not change over time but was higher on the coast than on the islands across all years. Migration rates from the islands to the coast were almost two times higher than from the coast to the islands. Most migrants leaving the coast were localised on the southern edge of the archipelago, as expected from the direction of the sea current between the two sites. Genetic monitoring provided valuable information on temporal changes in the population of American mink suggesting that this approach can be used to evaluate and improve control programmes of invasive vertebrates.

Dynamics of a black-capped chickadee population, 1958-1983

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loery, G.; Nichols, J.D.

1985-01-01

The dynamics of a wintering population of Black-capped Chickadees (Parus atricapillus) were studied from 1958-1983 using capture-recapture methods. The Jolly-Seber model was used to obtain annual estimates of population size, survival rate, and recruitment. The average estimated population size over this period was ?160 birds. The average estimated number of new birds entering the population each year and alive at the time of sampling was ?57. The arithmetic mean annual survival rate estimate was ?0.59. We tested hypothesis about possible relationships between these population parameters and (1) the natural introduction of Tufted Titmice (Parus bicolor) to the area, (2) the clear-cutting of portions of nearby red pine (Pinus resinosa) plantations, and (3) natural variations in winter temperatures. The chickadee population exhibited a substantial short-term decline following titmouse establishment, produced by decreases in both survival rate and number of new recruits. Survival rate decline somewhat after the initiation of the pine clear-cutting, but population size was very similar before and after clear-cutting. Weighted least squares analyses provided no evidence of a relationship between survival rate and either of two winter temperature variables.

An Artificial Immune System with Feedback Mechanisms for Effective Handling of Population Size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Shangce; Wang, Rong-Long; Ishii, Masahiro; Tang, Zheng

This paper represents a feedback artificial immune system (FAIS). Inspired by the feedback mechanisms in the biological immune system, the proposed algorithm effectively manipulates the population size by increasing and decreasing B cells according to the diversity of the current population. Two kinds of assessments are used to evaluate the diversity aiming to capture the characteristics of the problem on hand. Furthermore, the processing of adding and declining the number of population is designed. The validity of the proposed algorithm is tested for several traveling salesman benchmark problems. Simulation results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm when compared with the traditional genetic algorithm and an improved clonal selection algorithm.

A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

2015-07-14

Increasing or decreasing the total carrying capacity of all stream segments resulted in changes in equilibrium population size that were directly proportional to the change in capacity. However, changes in carrying capacity to some stream segments but not others could result in disproportionate changes in equilibrium population sizes by altering density-dependent movement and survival in the stream network. These simulations show how our IBM can provide a useful management tool for understanding the effect of restoration actions or reintroductions on carrying capacity, and, in turn, how these changes affect Moapa dace abundance. Such tools are critical for devising management strategies to achieve recovery goals.

Keeping the herds healthy and alert: Implications of predator control for infectious disease

USGS Publications Warehouse

Packer, Craig; Holt, Robert D.; Hudson, Peter J.; Lafferty, Kevin D.; Dobson, Andrew P.

2003-01-01

Predator control programmes are generally implemented in an attempt to increase prey population sizes. However, predator removal could prove harmful to prey populations that are regulated primarily by parasitic infections rather than by predation. We develop models for microparasitic and macroparasitic infection that specify the conditions where predator removal will (a) increase the incidence of parasitic infection, (b) reduce the number of healthy individuals in the prey population and (c) decrease the overall size of the prey population. In general, predator removal is more likely to be harmful when the parasite is highly virulent, macroparasites are highly aggregated in their prey, hosts are long-lived and the predators select infected prey.

The consequences of climate change at an avian influenza 'hotspot'.

PubMed

Brown, V L; Rohani, Pejman

2012-12-23

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) pose significant danger to human health. A key step in managing this threat is understanding the maintenance of AIVs in wild birds, their natural reservoir. Ruddy turnstones (Arenaria interpres) are an atypical bird species in this regard, annually experiencing high AIV prevalence in only one location-Delaware Bay, USA, during their spring migration. While there, they congregate on beaches, attracted by the super-abundance of horseshoe crab eggs. A relationship between ruddy turnstone and horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) population sizes has been established, with a declining horseshoe crab population linked to a corresponding drop in ruddy turnstone population sizes. The effect of this interaction on AIV prevalence in ruddy turnstones has also been addressed. Here, we employ a transmission model to investigate how the interaction between these two species is likely to be altered by climate change. We explore the consequences of this modified interaction on both ruddy turnstone population size and AIV prevalence and show that, if climate change leads to a large enough mismatch in species phenology, AIV prevalence in ruddy turnstones will increase even as their population size decreases.

Mapping of Vegetation with the Geoinformation System and Determining of Carrying Capacity of the Pre-Urals Steppe area for a Newly Establishing Population of the Przewalski Horse Equus ferus przewalskii at the Orenburg State Nature Reserve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fedorov, N. I.; Mikhailenko, O. I.; Zharkikh, T. L.; Bakirova, R. T.

2018-01-01

Mapping of the vegetation (1:25000) of the Pre-Urals Steppe area at the Orenburg State Nature Reserve was completed in 2016. A map created with the geoinformation system contains 1931 simple and complex polygons for 25 types of vegetation. In a drought year, the average stock of palatable vegetation of the whole area is estimated at 8380 tons dry weight. The estimation is based on the size of areas covered by different types of vegetation, their grass production, the correction coefficients for decreasing of pasture forage stocks in winter and decreasing of production of grass communities in dry years. Based on pasture forage stocks the area could tolerate the maximum population size of 1769 individuals of the Przewalski horse, their average density could be 0.11 horse per ha. Yet, as watering places for animals are limited in Pre-Urals Steppe, grazing pressures on the vegetation next to the water sources may increase in dry years. That is why the above-mentioned calculated maximum population size and density must be reduced at least by half until some additional watering places are established and monitoring of the grazing effect on the vegetation next to the places is carried out regularly. Thus, the maximum size of the population is estimated at 800 to 900 individuals, which is almost 1.5 times more than necessary to establish a self-sustained population of the Przewalski horse.

Effects of Group Size and Lack of Sphericity on the Recovery of Clusters in K-means Cluster Analysis.

PubMed

Craen, Saskia de; Commandeur, Jacques J F; Frank, Laurence E; Heiser, Willem J

2006-06-01

K-means cluster analysis is known for its tendency to produce spherical and equally sized clusters. To assess the magnitude of these effects, a simulation study was conducted, in which populations were created with varying departures from sphericity and group sizes. An analysis of the recovery of clusters in the samples taken from these populations showed a significant effect of lack of sphericity and group size. This effect was, however, not as large as expected, with still a recovery index of more than 0.5 in the "worst case scenario." An interaction effect between the two data aspects was also found. The decreasing trend in the recovery of clusters for increasing departures from sphericity is different for equal and unequal group sizes.

Body size shifts and early warning signals precede the historic collapse of whale stocks.

PubMed

Clements, Christopher F; Blanchard, Julia L; Nash, Kirsty L; Hindell, Mark A; Ozgul, Arpat

2017-06-22

Predicting population declines is a key challenge in the face of global environmental change. Abundance-based early warning signals have been shown to precede population collapses; however, such signals are sensitive to the low reliability of abundance estimates. Here, using historical data on whales harvested during the 20th century, we demonstrate that early warning signals can be present not only in the abundance data, but also in the more reliable body size data of wild populations. We show that during the period of commercial whaling, the mean body size of caught whales declined dramatically (by up to 4 m over a 70-year period), leading to early warning signals being detectable up to 40 years before the global collapse of whale stocks. Combining abundance and body size data can reduce the length of the time series required to predict collapse, and decrease the chances of false positive early warning signals.

Microbubble Sizing and Shell Characterization Using Flow Cytometry

PubMed Central

Tu, Juan; Swalwell, Jarred E.; Giraud, David; Cui, Weicheng; Chen, Weizhong; Matula, Thomas J.

2015-01-01

Experiments were performed to size, count, and obtain shell parameters for individual ultrasound contrast microbubbles using a modified flow cytometer. Light scattering was modeled using Mie theory, and applied to calibration beads to calibrate the system. The size distribution and population were measured directly from the flow cytometer. The shell parameters (shear modulus and shear viscosity) were quantified at different acoustic pressures (from 95 to 333 kPa) by fitting microbubble response data to a bubble dynamics model. The size distribution of the contrast agent microbubbles is consistent with manufacturer specifications. The shell shear viscosity increases with increasing equilibrium microbubble size, and decreases with increasing shear rate. The observed trends are independent of driving pressure amplitude. The shell elasticity does not vary with microbubble size. The results suggest that a modified flow cytometer can be an effective tool to characterize the physical properties of microbubbles, including size distribution, population, and shell parameters. PMID:21622051

Synergism between urinary prothrombin fragment 1 and urine: a comparison of inhibitory activities in stone-prone and stone-free population groups.

PubMed

Webber, Dawn; Rodgers, Allen L; Sturrock, Edward D

2002-09-01

South African blacks rarely form kidney stones compared with whites. This study investigated whether purified urinary prothrombin fragment 1 (UPTF1) derived from blacks is a more potent inhibitor of calcium oxalate crystallisation than that from whites. UPTF1 was purified from the urine of both population groups and their inhibitory activities were compared in a cross-over design in which each protein was tested in ultrafiltered urine from both population groups. Coulter Multisizer, [14C]-oxalate deposition and scanning electron microscopy experiments were used to monitor crystallisation. The study has demonstrated for the first time that UPTF1 promotes nucleation and that inhibitory activity is synergistically dependent upon urine composition. The activity of the whites' UPTF1 was greater than that of the blacks in the whites' urine (e.g. particle size decrease: 31.7% vs. 25.2%), while the blacks' UPTF1 was superior to that of the whites in the blacks' urine (e.g. particle size decrease: 46.5% vs. 32.4%). In addition, when tested in their respective endogenous urines, the blacks' UPTF1 demonstrated superior inhibitory activity on an absolute scale (e.g. particle size decrease: 46.5% vs. 31.7%). Thus, the urine composition of black South Africans may influence their UPTF1 conformation, conferring greater efficacy for inhibition of calcium oxalate crystallisation.

Low doses of six toxicants change plant size distribution in dense populations of Lactuca sativa.

PubMed

Belz, Regina G; Patama, Marjo; Sinkkonen, Aki

2018-08-01

Toxicants are known to have negligible or stimulatory, i.e. hormetic, effects at low doses below those that decrease the mean response of a plant population. Our earlier observations indicated that at such low toxicant doses the growth of very fast- and slow-growing seedlings is selectively altered, even if the population mean remains constant. Currently, it is not known how common these selective low-dose effects are, whether they are similar among fast- and slow-growing seedlings, and whether they occur concurrently with hormetic effects. We tested the response of Lactuca sativa in complete dose-response experiments to six different toxicants at doses that did not decrease population mean and beyond. The tested toxicants were IAA, parthenin, HHCB, 4-tert-octylphenol, glyphosate, and pelargonic acid. Each experiment consisted of 14,400-16,800 seedlings, 12-14 concentrations, 24 replicates per concentration and 50 germinated seeds per replicate. We analyzed the commonness of selective low-dose effects and explored if toxic effects and hormetic stimulation among fast- and slow-growing individuals occurred at the same concentrations as they occur at the population level. Irrespective of the observed response pattern and toxicant, selective low-dose effects were found. Toxin effects among fast-growing individuals usually started at higher doses compared to the population mean, while the opposite was found among slow-growing individuals. Very low toxin exposures tended to homogenize plant populations due to selective effects, while higher, but still hormetic doses tended to heterogenize plant populations. Although the extent of observed size segregation varied with the specific toxin tested, we conclude that a dose-dependent alteration in size distribution of a plant population may generally apply for many toxin exposures. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influences of population size and density on birthplace effects.

PubMed

Hancock, David J; Coutinho, Patrícia; Côté, Jean; Mesquita, Isabel

2018-01-01

Contextual influences on talent development (e.g., birthplace effects) have become a topic of interest for sport scientists. Birthplace effects occur when being born in a certain city size leads to participation or performance advantages, typically for those born in smaller or mid-sized cities. The purpose of this study was to investigate birthplace effects in Portuguese volleyball players by analysing city size, as well as population density - an important but infrequently used variable. Participants included 4062 volleyball players (M age  = 33), 53.2% of whom were men. Using Portuguese national census data from 1981, we compared participants (within each sex) across five population categories. In addition, we used ANOVAs to study expertise and population density. Results indicated that men and women athletes born in districts of 200,000-399,999 were 2.4 times more likely to attain elite volleyball status, while all other districts decreased the odds of expert development. For men, being born in high-density areas resulted in less chance of achieving expertise, whereas there were no differences for women. The results suggest that athletes' infrastructure and social structure play an important role in talent development, and that these structures are influenced by total population and population density, respectively.

Population and prehistory II: Space-limited human populations in constant environments

PubMed Central

Puleston, Cedric O.; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

2010-01-01

We present a population model to examine the forces that determined the quality and quantity of human life in early agricultural societies where cultivable area is limited. The model is driven by the non-linear and interdependent relationships between the age distribution of a population, its behavior and technology, and the nature of its environment. The common currency in the model is the production of food, on which age-specific rates of birth and death depend. There is a single nontrivial equilibrium population at which productivity balances caloric needs. One of the most powerful controls on equilibrium hunger level is fertility control. Gains against hunger are accompanied by decreases in population size. Increasing worker productivity does increase equilibrium population size but does not improve welfare at equilibrium. As a case study we apply the model to the population of a Polynesian valley before European contact. PMID:18598711

Population and prehistory II: space-limited human populations in constant environments.

PubMed

Puleston, Cedric O; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

2008-09-01

We present a population model to examine the forces that determined the quality and quantity of human life in early agricultural societies where cultivable area is limited. The model is driven by the non-linear and interdependent relationships between the age distribution of a population, its behavior and technology, and the nature of its environment. The common currency in the model is the production of food, on which age-specific rates of birth and death depend. There is a single non-trivial equilibrium population at which productivity balances caloric needs. One of the most powerful controls on equilibrium hunger level is fertility control. Gains against hunger are accompanied by decreases in population size. Increasing worker productivity does increase equilibrium population size but does not improve welfare at equilibrium. As a case study we apply the model to the population of a Polynesian valley before European contact.

Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Derocher, Andrew E; Klanjscek, Tin; Lewis, Mark A

2011-02-08

Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40-73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55-100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22-67% and 44-100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population.

Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size

PubMed Central

Molnár, Péter K.; Derocher, Andrew E.; Klanjscek, Tin; Lewis, Mark A.

2011-01-01

Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40–73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55–100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22–67% and 44–100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population. PMID:21304515

Matrimonial distance, inbreeding coefficient and population size: Dhangar data.

PubMed

Majumder, P P; Malhotra, K C

1979-01-01

Data on the distance between the birthplaces of spouses (matrimonial distance) were collected from 2,260 married individuals belonging to 21 endogamous castes of the Dhangar (shepherd) cast-cluster of Maharashtra, India. The general form of the distribution of matrimonial distances is one which is extremely positively skewed and leptokurtic. The percentage of intra-village marriages generally decreases from the southern areas of Maharashtra to the northern areas of the state, as does the inbreeding coefficient. This situation is in conformity with the socio-cultural norms regulating matrimonial choice in south and north India. An attempt has been made to relate the degree of inbreeding to the mean matrimonial distance and population size. The mean matrimonial distance is more useful in predicting the degree of inbreeding than population size.

Efficacy of Gaseous Ozone Application during Vacuum Cooling against Escherichia coli O157:H7 on Spinach Leaves as Influenced by Bacterium Population Size.

PubMed

Yesil, Mustafa; Kasler, David R; Huang, En; Yousef, Ahmed E

2017-07-01

Foodborne disease outbreaks associated with the consumption of fresh produce pose a threat to public health, decrease consumer confidence in minimally processed foods, and negatively impact the sales of these commodities. The aim of the study was to determine the influence of population size of inoculated pathogen on its inactivation by gaseous ozone treatment during vacuum cooling. Spinach leaves were spot inoculated with Escherichia coli O157:H7 at approximate initial populations of 10 8 , 10 7 , and 10 5 CFU/g. Inoculated leaves were vacuum cooled (28.5 inHg; 4°C) in a custom-made vessel and then were subjected to a gaseous ozone treatment under the following conditions: 1.5 g of ozone per kg of gas mixture, vessel pressure at 10 lb/in 2 gauge, 94 to 98% relative humidity, and 30 min of holding time at 9°C. Treatment of the leaves, having the aforementioned inocula, decreased E. coli populations by 0.2, 2.1, and 2.8 log CFU/g, respectively, compared with the inoculated untreated controls. Additionally, spinach leaves were inoculated at 1.4 × 10 3 CFU/g, which approximates natural contamination level, and the small populations remaining after ozone treatment were quantified using the most-probable-number (MPN) method. Vacuum and ozone sequential treatment decreased this E. coli O157:H7 population to <3 MPN/g (i.e., greater than 3-log reduction). Resulting log reductions were greater (P < 0.05) at the lower rather than the higher inoculum levels. In conclusion, treatment of spinach leaves with gaseous ozone is effective against pathogen loads comparable to those found in naturally contaminated fresh produce, but efficacy decreases as inoculum level increases.

Too big or too narrow? Disturbance characteristics determine the functional resilience in virtual microbial ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

König, Sara; Firle, Anouk-Letizia; Koehnke, Merlin; Banitz, Thomas; Frank, Karin

2017-04-01

In general ecology, there is an ongoing debate about the influence of fragmentation on extinction thresholds. Whether this influence is positive or negative depends on the considered type of fragmentation: whereas habitat fragmentation often has a negative influence on population extinction thresholds, spatially fragmented disturbances are observed to have mostly positive effects on the extinction probability. Besides preventing population extinction, in soil systems ecology we are interested in analyzing how ecosystem functions are maintained despite disturbance events. Here, we analyzed the influence of disturbance size and fragmentation on the functional resilience of a microbial soil ecosystem. As soil is a highly heterogeneous environment exposed to disturbances of different spatial configurations, the identification of critical disturbance characteristics for maintaining its functions is crucial. We used the numerical simulation model eColony considering bacterial growth, degradation and dispersal for analyzing the dynamic response of biodegradation examplary for an important microbial ecosystem service to disturbance events of different spatial configurations. We systematically varied the size and the degree of fragmentation of the affected area (disturbance pattern). We found that the influence of the disturbance size on functional recovery and biodegradation performance highly depends on the spatial fragmentation of the disturbance. Generally, biodegradation performance decreases with increasing clumpedness and increasing size of the affected area. After spatially correlated disturbance events, biodegradation performance decreases linear with increasing disturbance size. After spatially fragmented disturbance events, on the other hand, an increase in disturbance size has no influence on the biodegradation performance until a critical disturbance size is reached. Is the affected area bigger than this critical size, the functional performance decreases dramatically. Under recurrent disturbance events, this threshold is shifted to lower disturbance sizes. The more frequent disturbances are recurring, the lower is the critical disturbance size. Our simulation results indicate the importance of spatial characteristics of disturbance events for the functional resilience of microbial ecosystems. Critical values for disturbance size and fragmentation emerge from an interplay between both characteristics. In consequence, a precise definition of the specific disturbance regime is necessary for analysing functional resilience. With this study, we show that we need to consider the influence of fragmentation in terrestrial environments not only on population extincions but also on the resilience of ecosystem functions. Moreover, spatial disturbance characteristics - which are widely discussed on landscape scale - are an important factor on smaller scales, too.

Different Evolutionary Paths to Complexity for Small and Large Populations of Digital Organisms

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

A major aim of evolutionary biology is to explain the respective roles of adaptive versus non-adaptive changes in the evolution of complexity. While selection is certainly responsible for the spread and maintenance of complex phenotypes, this does not automatically imply that strong selection enhances the chance for the emergence of novel traits, that is, the origination of complexity. Population size is one parameter that alters the relative importance of adaptive and non-adaptive processes: as population size decreases, selection weakens and genetic drift grows in importance. Because of this relationship, many theories invoke a role for population size in the evolution of complexity. Such theories are difficult to test empirically because of the time required for the evolution of complexity in biological populations. Here, we used digital experimental evolution to test whether large or small asexual populations tend to evolve greater complexity. We find that both small and large—but not intermediate-sized—populations are favored to evolve larger genomes, which provides the opportunity for subsequent increases in phenotypic complexity. However, small and large populations followed different evolutionary paths towards these novel traits. Small populations evolved larger genomes by fixing slightly deleterious insertions, while large populations fixed rare beneficial insertions that increased genome size. These results demonstrate that genetic drift can lead to the evolution of complexity in small populations and that purifying selection is not powerful enough to prevent the evolution of complexity in large populations. PMID:27923053

Characterizing the effect of growth conditions and crystal habit on the distribution of imperfections amongst populations of crystals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, C. J.

1993-03-01

The distribution of gross imperfections amongst populations of copper sulphate pentahydrate crystals grown under different conditions of purity and temperature are examined. The frequency of imperfection increases with decreasing crystal size. The nature of the imperfections vary with growth temperature and impurities present.

The Relationship between National-Level Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Population Size: An Assessment of Regional and Temporal Variation, 1960–2005

PubMed Central

Jorgenson, Andrew K.; Clark, Brett

2013-01-01

This study examines the regional and temporal differences in the statistical relationship between national-level carbon dioxide emissions and national-level population size. The authors analyze panel data from 1960 to 2005 for a diverse sample of nations, and employ descriptive statistics and rigorous panel regression modeling techniques. Initial descriptive analyses indicate that all regions experienced overall increases in carbon emissions and population size during the 45-year period of investigation, but with notable differences. For carbon emissions, the sample of countries in Asia experienced the largest percent increase, followed by countries in Latin America, Africa, and lastly the sample of relatively affluent countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania combined. For population size, the sample of countries in Africa experienced the largest percent increase, followed countries in Latin America, Asia, and the combined sample of countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania. Findings for two-way fixed effects panel regression elasticity models of national-level carbon emissions indicate that the estimated elasticity coefficient for population size is much smaller for nations in Africa than for nations in other regions of the world. Regarding potential temporal changes, from 1960 to 2005 the estimated elasticity coefficient for population size decreased by 25% for the sample of Africa countries, 14% for the sample of Asia countries, 6.5% for the sample of Latin America countries, but remained the same in size for the sample of countries in Europe, North America, and Oceania. Overall, while population size continues to be the primary driver of total national-level anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, the findings for this study highlight the need for future research and policies to recognize that the actual impacts of population size on national-level carbon emissions differ across both time and region. PMID:23437323

Factors influencing nesting success of burrowing owls in southeastern Idaho

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gleason, R.S.; Johnson, D.R.

1985-01-31

A burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) population nesting on the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) in southeastern Idaho utilized burrows excavated by badgers (Taxidea taxus) or natural cavities in lava flows as nesting sites. The size of the population was small (N = 13-14 pairs) in relation to the number of available nesting sites, suggesting that factors other than burrow availability limited this population. Rodents and Jerusalem crickets (Stenopelmatus fuscus) represented the primary prey utilized during the nesting season. This population demonstrated both a numerical (brood size) and functional (dietary) response to a decrease in the density of three species ofmore » rodents on the INEL during a drought in 1977. 11 references, 1 figure, 2 table.« less

Computational Fluid Dynamics-Population Balance Model Simulation of Effects of Cell Design and Operating Parameters on Gas-Liquid Two-Phase Flows and Bubble Distribution Characteristics in Aluminum Electrolysis Cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhan, Shuiqing; Wang, Junfeng; Wang, Zhentao; Yang, Jianhong

2018-02-01

The effects of different cell design and operating parameters on the gas-liquid two-phase flows and bubble distribution characteristics under the anode bottom regions in aluminum electrolysis cells were analyzed using a three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics-population balance model. These parameters include inter-anode channel width, anode-cathode distance (ACD), anode width and length, current density, and electrolyte depth. The simulations results show that the inter-anode channel width has no significant effect on the gas volume fraction, electrolyte velocity, and bubble size. With increasing ACD, the above values decrease and more uniform bubbles can be obtained. Different effects of the anode width and length can be concluded in different cell regions. With increasing current density, the gas volume fraction and electrolyte velocity increase, but the bubble size keeps nearly the same. Increasing electrolyte depth decreased the gas volume fraction and bubble size in particular areas and the electrolyte velocity increased.

[Genetic ecological monitoring in human populations: heterozygosity, mtDNA haplotype variation, and genetic load].

PubMed

Balanovskiĭ, O P; Koshel', S M; Zaporozhchenko, V V; Pshenichnov, A S; Frolova, S A; Kuznetsova, M A; Baranova, E E; Teuchezh, I E; Kuznetsova, A A; Romashkina, M V; Utevskaia, O M; Churnosov, M I; Villems, R; Balanovskaia, E V

2011-11-01

Yu. P. Altukhov suggested that heterozygosity is an indicator of the state of the gene pool. The idea and a linked concept of genetic ecological monitoring were applied to a new dataset on mtDNA variation in East European ethnic groups. Haplotype diversity (an analog of the average heterozygosity) was shown to gradually decrease northwards. Since a similar trend is known for population density, interlinked changes were assumed for a set of parameters, which were ordered to form a causative chain: latitude increases, land productivity decreases, population density decreases, effective population size decreases, isolation of subpopulations increases, genetic drift increases, and mtDNA haplotype diversity decreases. An increase in genetic drift increases the random inbreeding rate and, consequently, the genetic load. This was confirmed by a significant correlation observed between the incidence of autosomal recessive hereditary diseases and mtDNA haplotype diversity. Based on the findings, mtDNA was assumed to provide an informative genetic system for genetic ecological monitoring; e.g., analyzing the ecology-driven changes in the gene pool.

Historical DNA reveals the demographic history of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in medieval and early modern Iceland

PubMed Central

Ólafsdóttir, Guðbjörg Ásta; Westfall, Kristen M.; Edvardsson, Ragnar; Pálsson, Snæbjörn

2014-01-01

Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) vertebrae from archaeological sites were used to study the history of the Icelandic Atlantic cod population in the time period of 1500–1990. Specifically, we used coalescence modelling to estimate population size and fluctuations from the sequence diversity at the cytochrome b (cytb) and Pantophysin I (PanI) loci. The models are consistent with an expanding population during the warm medieval period, large historical effective population size (NE), a marked bottleneck event at 1400–1500 and a decrease in NE in early modern times. The model results are corroborated by the reduction of haplotype and nucleotide variation over time and pairwise population distance as a significant portion of nucleotide variation partitioned across the 1550 time mark. The mean age of the historical fished stock is high in medieval times with a truncation in age in early modern times. The population size crash coincides with a period of known cooling in the North Atlantic, and we conclude that the collapse may be related to climate or climate-induced ecosystem change. PMID:24403343

Historical DNA reveals the demographic history of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in medieval and early modern Iceland.

PubMed

Ólafsdóttir, Guðbjörg Ásta; Westfall, Kristen M; Edvardsson, Ragnar; Pálsson, Snæbjörn

2014-02-22

Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) vertebrae from archaeological sites were used to study the history of the Icelandic Atlantic cod population in the time period of 1500-1990. Specifically, we used coalescence modelling to estimate population size and fluctuations from the sequence diversity at the cytochrome b (cytb) and Pantophysin I (PanI) loci. The models are consistent with an expanding population during the warm medieval period, large historical effective population size (NE), a marked bottleneck event at 1400-1500 and a decrease in NE in early modern times. The model results are corroborated by the reduction of haplotype and nucleotide variation over time and pairwise population distance as a significant portion of nucleotide variation partitioned across the 1550 time mark. The mean age of the historical fished stock is high in medieval times with a truncation in age in early modern times. The population size crash coincides with a period of known cooling in the North Atlantic, and we conclude that the collapse may be related to climate or climate-induced ecosystem change.

Allee effect: the story behind the stabilization or extinction of microbial ecosystem.

PubMed

Goswami, Madhurankhi; Bhattacharyya, Purnita; Tribedi, Prosun

2017-03-01

A population exhibiting Allee effect shows a positive correlation between population fitness and population size or density. Allee effect decides the extinction or conservation of a microbial population and thus appears to be an important criterion in population ecology. The underlying factor of Allee effect that decides the stabilization and extinction of a particular population density is the threshold or the critical density of their abundance. According to Allee, microbial populations exhibit a definite, critical or threshold density, beyond which the population fitness of a particular population increases with the rise in population density and below it, the population fitness goes down with the decrease in population density. In particular, microbial population displays advantageous traits such as biofilm formation, expression of virulence genes, spore formation and many more only at a high population density. It has also been observed that microorganisms exhibiting a lower population density undergo complete extinction from the residual microbial ecosystem. In reference to Allee effect, decrease in population density or size introduces deleterious mutations among the population density through genetic drift. Mutations are carried forward to successive generations resulting in its accumulation among the population density thus reducing its microbial fitness and thereby increasing the risk of extinction of a particular microbial population. However, when the microbial load is high, the chance of genetic drift is less, and through the process of biofilm formation, the cooperation existing among the microbial population increases that increases the microbial fitness. Thus, the high microbial population through the formation of microbial biofilm stabilizes the ecosystem by increasing fitness. Taken together, microbial fitness shows positive correlation with the ecosystem conservation and negative correlation with ecosystem extinction.

The co-evolution of cultures, social network communities, and agent locations in an extension of Axelrod’s model of cultural dissemination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfau, Jens; Kirley, Michael; Kashima, Yoshihisa

2013-01-01

We introduce a variant of the Axelrod model of cultural dissemination in which agents change their physical locations, social links, and cultures. Numerical simulations are used to investigate the evolution of social network communities and the cultural diversity within and between these communities. An analysis of the simulation results shows that an initial peak in the cultural diversity within network communities is evident before agents segregate into a final configuration of culturally homogeneous communities. Larger long-range interaction probabilities facilitate the initial emergence of culturally diverse network communities, which leads to a more pronounced initial peak in cultural diversity within communities. At equilibrium, the number of communities, and hence cultures, increases when the initial cultural diversity increases. However, the number of communities decreases when the lattice size or population density increases. A phase transition between two regimes of initial cultural diversity is evident. For initial diversities below a critical value, a single network community and culture emerges that dominates the population. For initial diversities above the critical value, multiple culturally homogeneous communities emerge. The critical value of initial diversity at which this transition occurs increases with increasing lattice size and population density and generally with increasing absolute population size. We conclude that larger initial diversities promote cultural heterogenization, while larger lattice sizes, population densities, and in fact absolute population sizes promote homogenization.

Naturally rare versus newly rare: demographic inferences on two timescales inform conservation of Galápagos giant tortoises

PubMed Central

Garrick, Ryan C; Kajdacsi, Brittney; Russello, Michael A; Benavides, Edgar; Hyseni, Chaz; Gibbs, James P; Tapia, Washington; Caccone, Adalgisa

2015-01-01

Long-term population history can influence the genetic effects of recent bottlenecks. Therefore, for threatened or endangered species, an understanding of the past is relevant when formulating conservation strategies. Levels of variation at neutral markers have been useful for estimating local effective population sizes (Ne) and inferring whether population sizes increased or decreased over time. Furthermore, analyses of genotypic, allelic frequency, and phylogenetic information can potentially be used to separate historical from recent demographic changes. For 15 populations of Galápagos giant tortoises (Chelonoidis sp.), we used 12 microsatellite loci and DNA sequences from the mitochondrial control region and a nuclear intron, to reconstruct demographic history on shallow (past ∽100 generations, ∽2500 years) and deep (pre-Holocene, >10 thousand years ago) timescales. At the deep timescale, three populations showed strong signals of growth, but with different magnitudes and timing, indicating different underlying causes. Furthermore, estimated historical Ne of populations across the archipelago showed no correlation with island age or size, underscoring the complexity of predicting demographic history a priori. At the shallow timescale, all populations carried some signature of a genetic bottleneck, and for 12 populations, point estimates of contemporary Ne were very small (i.e., < 50). On the basis of the comparison of these genetic estimates with published census size data, Ne generally represented ∽0.16 of the census size. However, the variance in this ratio across populations was considerable. Overall, our data suggest that idiosyncratic and geographically localized forces shaped the demographic history of tortoise populations. Furthermore, from a conservation perspective, the separation of demographic events occurring on shallow versus deep timescales permits the identification of naturally rare versus newly rare populations; this distinction should facilitate prioritization of management action. PMID:25691990

A population model for a long-lived, resprouting chaparral shrub: Adenostoma fasciculatum

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Rundel, Philip W.

1986-01-01

Extensive stands of Adenostoma fasciculatum H.&A. (chamise) in the chaparral of California are periodically rejuvenated by fire. A population model based on size-specific demographic characteristics (thinning and fire-caused mortality) was developed to generate probable age distributions within size classes and survivorship curves for typical stands. The model was modified to assess the long term effects of different mortality rates on age distributions. Under observed mean mortality rates (28.7%), model output suggests some shrubs can survive more than 23 fires. A 10% increase in mortality rate by size class slightly shortened the survivorship curve, while a 10% decrease in mortality rate by size class greatly elongated the curve. This approach may be applicable to other long-lived plant species with complex life histories.

Anomalies in the detection of change: When changes in sample size are mistaken for changes in proportions.

PubMed

Fiedler, Klaus; Kareev, Yaakov; Avrahami, Judith; Beier, Susanne; Kutzner, Florian; Hütter, Mandy

2016-01-01

Detecting changes, in performance, sales, markets, risks, social relations, or public opinions, constitutes an important adaptive function. In a sequential paradigm devised to investigate detection of change, every trial provides a sample of binary outcomes (e.g., correct vs. incorrect student responses). Participants have to decide whether the proportion of a focal feature (e.g., correct responses) in the population from which the sample is drawn has decreased, remained constant, or increased. Strong and persistent anomalies in change detection arise when changes in proportional quantities vary orthogonally to changes in absolute sample size. Proportional increases are readily detected and nonchanges are erroneously perceived as increases when absolute sample size increases. Conversely, decreasing sample size facilitates the correct detection of proportional decreases and the erroneous perception of nonchanges as decreases. These anomalies are however confined to experienced samples of elementary raw events from which proportions have to be inferred inductively. They disappear when sample proportions are described as percentages in a normalized probability format. To explain these challenging findings, it is essential to understand the inductive-learning constraints imposed on decisions from experience.

Tuning stochastic matrix models with hydrologic data to predict the population dynamics of a riverine fish.

PubMed

Sakaris, Peter C; Irwin, Elise R

2010-03-01

We developed stochastic matrix models to evaluate the effects of hydrologic alteration and variable mortality on the population dynamics of a lotic fish in a regulated river system. Models were applied to a representative lotic fish species, the flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris), for which two populations were examined: a native population from a regulated reach of the Coosa River (Alabama, USA) and an introduced population from an unregulated section of the Ocmulgee River (Georgia, USA). Size-classified matrix models were constructed for both populations, and residuals from catch-curve regressions were used as indices of year class strength (i.e., recruitment). A multiple regression model indicated that recruitment of flathead catfish in the Coosa River was positively related to the frequency of spring pulses between 283 and 566 m3/s. For the Ocmulgee River population, multiple regression models indicated that year class strength was negatively related to mean March discharge and positively related to June low flow. When the Coosa population was modeled to experience five consecutive years of favorable hydrologic conditions during a 50-year projection period, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.2% annual rate. When modeled to experience five years of unfavorable hydrologic conditions, the Coosa population initially exhibited a decrease in size but later stabilized and increased at a 0.4% annual rate following the decline. When the Ocmulgee River population was modeled to experience five years of favorable conditions, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.4% annual rate. After the Ocmulgee population experienced five years of unfavorable conditions, a sharp decline in population size was predicted. However, the population quickly recovered, with population size increasing at a 0.3% annual rate following the decline. In general, stochastic population growth in the Ocmulgee River was more erratic and variable than population growth in the Coosa River. We encourage ecologists to develop similar models for other lotic species, particularly in regulated river systems. Successful management of fish populations in regulated systems requires that we are able to predict how hydrology affects recruitment and will ultimately influence the population dynamics of fishes.

Impact of in-Sewer Degradation of Pharmaceutical and Personal Care Products (PPCPs) Population Markers on a Population Model.

PubMed

O'Brien, Jake William; Banks, Andrew Phillip William; Novic, Andrew Joseph; Mueller, Jochen F; Jiang, Guangming; Ort, Christoph; Eaglesham, Geoff; Yuan, Zhiguo; Thai, Phong K

2017-04-04

A key uncertainty of wastewater-based epidemiology is the size of the population which contributed to a given wastewater sample. We previously developed and validated a Bayesian inference model to estimate population size based on 14 population markers which: (1) are easily measured and (2) have mass loads which correlate with population size. However, the potential uncertainty of the model prediction due to in-sewer degradation of these markers was not evaluated. In this study, we addressed this gap by testing their stability under sewer conditions and assessed whether degradation impacts the model estimates. Five markers, which formed the core of our model, were stable in the sewers while the others were not. Our evaluation showed that the presence of unstable population markers in the model did not decrease the precision of the population estimates providing that stable markers such as acesulfame remained in the model. However, to achieve the minimum uncertainty in population estimates, we propose that the core markers to be included in population models for other sites should meet two additional criteria: (3) negligible degradation in wastewater to ensure the stability of chemicals during collection; and (4) < 10% in-sewer degradation could occur during the mean residence time of the sewer network.

Interannual variability in the skate assemblage on the South Patagonian shelf and slope.

PubMed

Winter, A; Pompert, J; Arkhipkin, A; Brewin, P E

2015-12-01

Observer data from the commercial fishery on the Patagonian shelf and slope around the Falkland Islands (home to an assemblage of >16 skate species (Rajiformes), for which commercial catches have been recorded since 1987), as well as survey data from an area closed to skate target fishing after exploitation, were summarized by species to examine changes in the population status of individual skate species. Total skate catch per unit effort increased significantly in the target fishery since 1994, and four species have made up >85% of all skate catch. Bathyraja brachyurops and Zearaja chilensis increased significantly in catch proportions and abundance from 1994 to 2013. Bathyraja albomaculata and Bathyraja griseocauda decreased significantly before rebounding with trends of increasing abundance. Concurrently, B. brachyurops and Z. chilensis showed decreasing trends in size at 50% maturity in areas where skates continue to be targeted commercially. The increasing abundances and concomitant reductions in size at maturity of B. brachyurops and Z. chilensis suggest either plasticity in life-history traits or a density-dependent growth response to fishing pressure. Bathyraja griseocauda decreased in size at 50% maturity in the area that was closed to skate target fishing, where it was initially larger, but only decreased to the same average size as in the commercially targeted areas. Bathyraja albomaculata and Z. chilensis are IUCN-listed as vulnerable and B. griseocauda is listed as endangered, but their abundance trends since 1994 indicate that these populations are not declining in Falkland waters. © 2015 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Minimum Pool and Bull Trout Prey Base Investigations at Beulah Reservoir - Final Report for 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rose, Brien P.; Mesa, Matthew G.

2009-01-01

Beulah Reservoir in southeastern Oregon provides irrigation water to nearby farms and supports an adfluvial population of threatened bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). Summer drawdowns in the reservoir could affect forage fish production and overwintering bull trout. To assess the impacts of drawdown, we sampled fish, invertebrates, and water-quality variables seasonally during 2006-08. In 2006, the summer drawdown was about 68 percent of full pool, which was less than a typical drawdown of 85 percent. We detected few changes in pelagic invertebrate densities, and catch rates, abundance, and sizes of fish when comparing values from spring to values from fall. We did note that densities of benthic insects in areas that were dewatered annually were lower than those from areas that were not dewatered annually. In 2007, the drawdown was 100 percent (to run-of-river level) and resulted in decreases in abundance of invertebrates as much as 96 percent, decreases in catch rates of fish as much as 80 percent, decreases in abundance of redside shiners (Richardsonius balteatus) and northern pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus oregonensis) as much as 93 percent, and decreased numbers of small fish in catches. In the fall 2007, we estimated the total biomass of forage fish to be 76 kilograms, or about one-quarter of total biomass of forage fish in 2006. Bioenergetics modeling suggested that ample forage for about 1,000 bull trout would exist after a moderate drawdown, but that forage remaining after a complete dewatering would not be sufficient for a population one-fifth the size. Our results indicate that drawdowns in Beulah Reservoir affect the aquatic community and perhaps the health and well-being of bull trout. The severity of effects depends on the extent of drawdown, population size of bull trout, and perhaps other factors.

Life-history tactics: a review of the ideas.

PubMed

Stearns, S C

1976-03-01

This review organizes ideas on the evolution of life histories. The key life-history traits are brood size, size of young, the age distribution of reproductive effort, the interaction of reproductive effort with adult mortality, and the variation in these traits among an individual's progeny. The general theoretical problem is to predict which combinations of traits will evolve in organisms living in specified circumstances. First consider single traits. Theorists have made the following predictions: (1) Where adult exceeds juvenile mortality, the organism should reproduce only once in its lifetime. Where juvenile exceeds adult mortality, the organism should reproduce several times. (2) Brood size should macimize the number of young surviving to maturity, summed over the lifetime of the parent. But when optimum brood-size unpredictably in time, smaller broods should be favored because they decrease the chances of total failure on a given attempt. (3) In expanding populations, selection should minimize age at maturity. In stable populations, when reproductive success depends on size, age, or social status, or when adult exceeds juvenile mortality, then maturation should be delayed, as it should be in declining populations. (4) Young should increase in size at birth with increased predation risk, and decrease in size with increased resource availability. Theorists have also predicted that only particular combinations of traits should occur in specified circumstances. (5) In growing populations, age at maturity should be minimized, reproductive effort concentrated early in life, and brood size increased. (6) One view holds that in stable environments, late maturity, broods, a few, large young, parental care, and small reproductive efforts should be favored (K-selection). In fluctuating environments, early maturity, many small young, reduced parental care, and large reproductive efforts should be favored (r-selection). (7) But another view holds that when juvenile mortality fluctuates more than adult mortality, the traits associated with stable and fluctuating environments should be reversed. We need experiments that test the assumptions and predictions reviewed here, more comprehensive theory that makes more readily falsifiable predictions, and examination of different definitions of fitness.

The adaptive value of morphological, behavioural and life-history traits in reproductive female wolves.

PubMed

Stahler, Daniel R; MacNulty, Daniel R; Wayne, Robert K; vonHoldt, Bridgett; Smith, Douglas W

2013-01-01

Reproduction in social organisms is shaped by numerous morphological, behavioural and life-history traits such as body size, cooperative breeding and age of reproduction, respectively. Little is known, however, about the relative influence of these different types of traits on reproduction, particularly in the context of environmental conditions that determine their adaptive value. Here, we use 14 years of data from a long-term study of wolves (Canis lupus) in Yellowstone National Park, USA, to evaluate the relative effects of different traits and ecological factors on the reproductive performance (litter size and survival) of breeding females. At the individual level, litter size and survival improved with body mass and declined with age (c. 4-5 years). Grey-coloured females had more surviving pups than black females, which likely contributed to the maintenance of coat colour polymorphism in this system. The effect of pack size on reproductive performance was nonlinear as litter size peaked at eight wolves and then declined, and litter survival increased rapidly up to three wolves, beyond which it increased more gradually. At the population level, litter size and survival decreased with increasing wolf population size and canine distemper outbreaks. The relative influence of these different-level factors on wolf reproductive success followed individual > group > population. Body mass was the primary determinant of litter size, followed by pack size and population size. Body mass was also the main driver of litter survival, followed by pack size and disease. Reproductive gains because of larger body size and cooperative breeding may mitigate reproductive losses because of negative density dependence and disease. These findings highlight the adaptive value of large body size and sociality in promoting individual fitness in stochastic and competitive environments. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Temporal variation in the mating structure of Sanday, Orkney Islands.

PubMed

Brennan, E R; Relethford, J H

1983-01-01

Pedigree and vital statistics data from the population of Sanday, Orkney Islands, Scotland, were used to assess temporal changes in population structure. Secular trends in patterns of mate choice were analysed for three separate birth cohorts of spouses: 1855-1884, 1885-1924 and 1925-1964. The degree to which mating was random or assortative with respect to both genealogical and geographic distance was determined by comparing average characteristics of all potential mates of married males with those of actual wives. We integrated this procedure, originally developed by Dyke (1971), into a three-fold investigation of population structure: (1) comparison of random and non-random components of relatedness as measured from pedigree data; (2) an analysis of marital distance distributions for actual and potential mates of married males; and (3) the relationship between genealogical relatedness and geographic distance. As population size decreased from 1881 to the present, total kinship and spatial distances between spouses increased. Whereas the random component of relatedness increased over time, consanguinity avoidance was sufficient to decrease the total coefficient of kinship over time. Part of the increase in consanguinity avoidance was associated with isolate breakdown, as distances between island-born spouses, as well as the total amount of off-island migration, increased from the mid-nineteenth century to the present. Mate choice was influenced by geographic distance for all time periods, although this effect diminished over time. Since decreases in population size, concomitant with increases in consanguinity avoidance and community exogamy, have probably occurred quite frequently in small human populations, as well as in rural Western communities in the past century, observed secular trends illustrate the potential for change in population structure characteristic of isolate breakdown.

Climate variability, human wildlife conflict and population dynamics of lions Panthera leo.

PubMed

Trinkel, Martina

2013-04-01

Large carnivores are threatened by habitat loss, declining prey populations and direct persecution. Pride dynamics of eight lion prides in the centre of the Etosha National Park, Namibia are described during a 16-year study. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the number of adult and subadult lions declined continuously to two third of its initial population size, and reached a new equilibrium in the 1990s. Pride sizes decreased from 6.3 adult females in 1989 to 2.8 lionesses in 1997. While the number of adult females declined continuously, the number of adult males, subadult females and subadult males remained constant over the years. A severe drought period, lasting for more than 20 years, led to declining prey populations inside the lions' territory. Besides declining prey populations, conflict with humans at the border of Etosha puts substantial pressure onto the lion population: 82% of all known lion mortalities were caused by humans, and most of these consisted of adult females (28%) and subadult males (29%). I postulate that the considerable decline in the lion population is a response to declining prey populations, and although the human predator conflict is severe, it does not seem to limit the size of Etosha's lion population.

Climate variability, human wildlife conflict and population dynamics of lions Panthera leo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trinkel, Martina

2013-04-01

Large carnivores are threatened by habitat loss, declining prey populations and direct persecution. Pride dynamics of eight lion prides in the centre of the Etosha National Park, Namibia are described during a 16-year study. Since the beginning of the 1980s, the number of adult and subadult lions declined continuously to two third of its initial population size, and reached a new equilibrium in the 1990s. Pride sizes decreased from 6.3 adult females in 1989 to 2.8 lionesses in 1997. While the number of adult females declined continuously, the number of adult males, subadult females and subadult males remained constant over the years. A severe drought period, lasting for more than 20 years, led to declining prey populations inside the lions' territory. Besides declining prey populations, conflict with humans at the border of Etosha puts substantial pressure onto the lion population: 82 % of all known lion mortalities were caused by humans, and most of these consisted of adult females (28 %) and subadult males (29 %). I postulate that the considerable decline in the lion population is a response to declining prey populations, and although the human predator conflict is severe, it does not seem to limit the size of Etosha's lion population.

Habitat corridors facilitate genetic resilience irrespective of species dispersal abilities or population sizes.

PubMed

Christie, Mark R; Knowles, L Lacey

2015-06-01

Corridors are frequently proposed to connect patches of habitat that have become isolated due to human-mediated alterations to the landscape. While it is understood that corridors can facilitate dispersal between patches, it remains unknown whether corridors can mitigate the negative genetic effects for entire communities modified by habitat fragmentation. These negative genetic effects, which include reduced genetic diversity, limit the potential for populations to respond to selective agents such as disease epidemics and global climate change. We provide clear evidence from a forward-time, agent-based model (ABM) that corridors can facilitate genetic resilience in fragmented habitats across a broad range of species dispersal abilities and population sizes. Our results demonstrate that even modest increases in corridor width decreased the genetic differentiation between patches and increased the genetic diversity and effective population size within patches. Furthermore, we document a trade-off between corridor quality and corridor design whereby populations connected by high-quality habitat (i.e., low corridor mortality) are more resilient to suboptimal corridor design (e.g., long and narrow corridors). The ABM also revealed that species interactions can play a greater role than corridor design in shaping the genetic responses of populations to corridors. These results demonstrate how corridors can provide long-term conservation benefits that extend beyond targeted taxa and scale up to entire communities irrespective of species dispersal abilities or population sizes.

Habitat corridors facilitate genetic resilience irrespective of species dispersal abilities or population sizes

PubMed Central

Christie, Mark R; Knowles, L Lacey

2015-01-01

Corridors are frequently proposed to connect patches of habitat that have become isolated due to human-mediated alterations to the landscape. While it is understood that corridors can facilitate dispersal between patches, it remains unknown whether corridors can mitigate the negative genetic effects for entire communities modified by habitat fragmentation. These negative genetic effects, which include reduced genetic diversity, limit the potential for populations to respond to selective agents such as disease epidemics and global climate change. We provide clear evidence from a forward-time, agent-based model (ABM) that corridors can facilitate genetic resilience in fragmented habitats across a broad range of species dispersal abilities and population sizes. Our results demonstrate that even modest increases in corridor width decreased the genetic differentiation between patches and increased the genetic diversity and effective population size within patches. Furthermore, we document a trade-off between corridor quality and corridor design whereby populations connected by high-quality habitat (i.e., low corridor mortality) are more resilient to suboptimal corridor design (e.g., long and narrow corridors). The ABM also revealed that species interactions can play a greater role than corridor design in shaping the genetic responses of populations to corridors. These results demonstrate how corridors can provide long-term conservation benefits that extend beyond targeted taxa and scale up to entire communities irrespective of species dispersal abilities or population sizes. PMID:26029259

Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species

PubMed Central

Nolet, Bart A; Bauer, Silke; Feige, Nicole; Kokorev, Yakov I; Popov, Igor Yu; Ebbinge, Barwolt S

2013-01-01

1. The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions). 2. Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis, covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects. 3. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960–2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming abundance and population density on population development. 4. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carry-over effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone. 5. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting migratory birds and, more recently, possibly population dynamics of resident bird species, but this is the first evidence for effects of lemming abundance on population size of a migratory bird species. Why lemming cycles are faltering in the last two decades is unclear, but this may be associated with changes in winter climate at Taimyr Peninsula (Siberia). PMID:23419215

Faltering lemming cycles reduce productivity and population size of a migratory Arctic goose species.

PubMed

Nolet, Bart A; Bauer, Silke; Feige, Nicole; Kokorev, Yakov I; Popov, Igor Yu; Ebbinge, Barwolt S

2013-07-01

The huge changes in population sizes of Arctic-nesting geese offer a great opportunity to study population limitation in migratory animals. In geese, population limitation seems to have shifted from wintering to summering grounds. There, in the Arctic, climate is rapidly changing, and this may impact reproductive performance, and perhaps population size of geese, both directly (e.g. by changes in snow melt) or indirectly (e.g. by changes in trophic interactions). Dark-bellied brent geese (Branta bernicla bernicla L.) increased 20-fold since the 1950s. Its reproduction fluctuates strongly in concert with the 3-year lemming cycle. An earlier analysis, covering the growth period until 1988, did not find evidence for density dependence, but thereafter the population levelled off and even decreased. The question is whether this is caused by changes in lemming cycles, population density or other factors like carry-over effects. Breeding success was derived from proportions of juveniles. We used an information-theoretical approach to investigate which environmental factors best explained the variation in breeding success over nearly 50 years (1960-2008). We subsequently combined GLM predictions of breeding success with published survival estimates to project the population trajectory since 1991 (year of maximum population size). In this way, we separated the effects of lemming abundance and population density on population development. Breeding success was mainly dependent on lemming abundance, the onset of spring at the breeding grounds, and the population size of brent goose. No evidence was found for carry-over effects (i.e. effects of conditions at main spring staging site). Negative density dependence was operating at a population size above c. 200 000 individuals, but the levelling off of the population could be explained by faltering lemming cycles alone. Lemmings have long been known to affect population productivity of Arctic-nesting migratory birds and, more recently, possibly population dynamics of resident bird species, but this is the first evidence for effects of lemming abundance on population size of a migratory bird species. Why lemming cycles are faltering in the last two decades is unclear, but this may be associated with changes in winter climate at Taimyr Peninsula (Siberia). © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2013 British Ecological Society.

Destruction of a Holothuria scabra population by overfishing at Abu Rhamada Island in the Red Sea.

PubMed

Hasan, Mohamed Hamza

2005-10-01

Populations of Holothuria scabra at Abu Rhamada Island were investigated during 52 months, from July 1999 to October 2003. During the first 23 months (July, 1999-May, 2001) the Island had a robust population with a tri-modal size frequency distribution curve, very high densities (85.7-95.1 ind./100 m2 at the sandy habitat), high abundance (3362-3110 individuals) and biomass (46.7-34.3 kg/100 m2). Also, during this period most individuals were at depths between 4 and 6m and no individuals were recorded deeper than 15m. The population declined after harvesting began (June, 2001) and by March, 2002 the size frequency distribution showed a bimodal pattern with an obvious decrease in abundance of large individuals. There was also a slight reduction in densities (73.2-60.1 ind./100 m2 at the sandy habitat), abundance (2292-1682 individuals) and biomass (21.6-11.3 kg/100 m2), and a marked shift towards deeper waters. Overfishing reached its maximum during the final 19 months of the study, and by October, 2003, density (30.7-0.4 ind./100 m2 at the sandy habitat), abundance (802-10 individuals) and biomass (6.9-0.1 kg/100 m2) were all greatly reduced. The size frequency distribution of the population became unimodal, large animals disappeared and no recruits were seen. During this period, individuals were found at very deep depths (30 to >40 m). The study also showed that sandy substrate was the preferred habitat for H. scabra, accommodating the largest number of individuals. The population of H. scabra at Abu Rhamada Island was found to spawn biannually from 1999 to 2001, then only once during 2002 when high fishing pressure occurred, and ceased completely in 2003. The sex ratio was not significantly different from 1:1 before fishing begun, but shifted to an increasing male bias reaching 93% males by January 2003. None of the small animals remaining after January, 2003 could be sexed. Size at sexual maturity decreased from prefishing (185 mm for females and 160 mm for males) to 155 mm for females and 125 mm for males in January 2003. There was a positive relationship between fecundity and size. And oocyte/female was highest in 1999 (0.73-1.7 million) and 2000 (0.75-1.72 million), decreased during 2001 (0.2-0.85 million) to reach its minimum at 2002 (0.28-0.29 million).

Efficacy of a 2% climbazole shampoo for reducing Malassezia population sizes on the skin of naturally infected dogs.

PubMed

Cavana, P; Petit, J-Y; Perrot, S; Guechi, R; Marignac, G; Reynaud, K; Guillot, J

2015-12-01

Shampoo therapy is often recommended for the control of Malassezia overgrowth in dogs. The aim of this study was to evaluate the in vivo activity of a 2% climbazole shampoo against Malassezia pachydermatis yeasts in naturally infected dogs. Eleven research colony Beagles were used. The dogs were distributed randomly into two groups: group A (n=6) and group B (n=5). Group A dogs were washed with a 2% climbazole shampoo, while group B dogs were treated with a physiological shampoo base. The shampoos were applied once weekly for two weeks. The population size of Malassezia yeasts on skin was determined by fungal culture through modified Dixon's medium contact plates pressed on left concave pinna, axillae, groins, perianal area before and after shampoo application. Samples collected were compared by Wilcoxon rank sum test. Samples collected after 2% climbazole shampoo application showed a significant and rapid reduction of Malassezia population sizes. One hour after the first climbazole shampoo application, Malassezia reduction was already statistically significant and 15 days after the second climbazole shampoo, Malassezia population sizes were still significantly decreased. No significant reduction of Malassezia population sizes was observed in group B dogs. The application of a 2% climbazole shampoo significantly reduced Malassezia population sizes on the skin of naturally infected dogs. Application of 2% climbazole shampoo may be useful for the control of Malassezia overgrowth and it may be also proposed as prevention when recurrences are frequent. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Uniqueness of Nash equilibrium in vaccination games.

PubMed

Bai, Fan

2016-12-01

One crucial condition for the uniqueness of Nash equilibrium set in vaccination games is that the attack ratio monotonically decreases as the vaccine coverage level increasing. We consider several deterministic vaccination models in homogeneous mixing population and in heterogeneous mixing population. Based on the final size relations obtained from the deterministic epidemic models, we prove that the attack ratios can be expressed in terms of the vaccine coverage levels, and also prove that the attack ratios are decreasing functions of vaccine coverage levels. Some thresholds are presented, which depend on the vaccine efficacy. It is proved that for vaccination games in homogeneous mixing population, there is a unique Nash equilibrium for each game.

Decreases in beetle body size linked to climate change and warming temperatures.

PubMed

Tseng, Michelle; Kaur, Katrina M; Soleimani Pari, Sina; Sarai, Karnjit; Chan, Denessa; Yao, Christine H; Porto, Paula; Toor, Anmol; Toor, Harpawantaj S; Fograscher, Katrina

2018-05-01

Body size is a fundamental ecological trait and is correlated with population dynamics, community structure and function, and ecosystem fluxes. Laboratory data from broad taxonomic groups suggest that a widespread response to a warming world may be an overall decrease in organism body size. However, given the myriad of biotic and abiotic factors that can also influence organism body size in the wild, it is unclear whether results from these laboratory assays hold in nature. Here we use datasets spanning 30 to 100 years to examine whether the body size of wild-caught beetles has changed over time, whether body size changes are correlated with increased temperatures, and we frame these results using predictions derived from a quantitative review of laboratory responses of 22 beetle species to temperature. We found that 95% of laboratory-reared beetles decreased in size with increased rearing temperature, with larger-bodied species shrinking disproportionately more than smaller-bodied beetles. In addition, the museum datasets revealed that larger-bodied beetle species have decreased in size over time, that mean beetle body size explains much of the interspecific variation in beetle responses to temperature, and that long-term beetle size changes are explained by increases in autumn temperature and decreases in spring temperature in this region. Our data demonstrate that the relationship between body size and temperature of wild-caught beetles matches relatively well with results from laboratory studies, and that variation in this relationship is largely explained by interspecific variation in mean beetle body size. This long-term beetle dataset is one of the most comprehensive arthropod body size datasets compiled to date, it improves predictions regarding the shrinking of organisms with global climate change, and together with the meta-analysis data, call for new hypotheses to explain why larger-bodied organisms may be more sensitive to temperature. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2018 British Ecological Society.

Adaptation of rat soleus muscles to 4 wk of intermittent strain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stauber, W. T.; Miller, G. R.; Grimmett, J. G.; Knack, K. K.

1994-01-01

The effect of repeated strains on rat soleus muscles was investigated by stretching active muscles 3 times/wk for 4 wk with two different methods of stretching. The adaptation of myofibers and noncontractile tissue was followed by histochemical techniques and computer-assisted image analysis. Muscle hypertrophy was seen in the slow-stretched muscles, which increased in mass by 13% and increased in myofiber cross-sectional area by 30%. In the fast-stretched muscle, mass increased by 10% but myofiber cross-sectional area actually decreased. This decrease in mean fiber area was the result of a population of very small fibers (population A) that coexisted with slightly smaller normal-sized fibers (population B). Fibers in population A did not have the distribution expected from atrophy compared with atrophic fibers from unloaded muscles; they were much smaller. In addition, there was a 44% increase in noncontractile tissue in the fast-stretched muscles. Thus, soleus muscles subjected to repeated strains respond differently to slow and fast stretching. Slow stretching results in typical muscle hypertrophy, whereas fast stretching produces somewhat larger muscles but with a mixture of small and normal-sized myofibers accompanied by a marked proliferation of noncontractile tissue.

Ecological investigations to select mitigation options to reduce vehicle-caused mortality of a threatened butterfly

Treesearch

Sara B. Zielin; Jalene Littlejohn; Catherine E. de Rivera; Winston P. Smith; Sandra L. Jacobson

2016-01-01

Whereas roads that bisect habitat are known to decrease population size through animal-vehicle collisions or interruption of key life history events, it is not always obvious how to reduce such impacts, especially for flying organisms. We needed a quick, cost-efficient and effective way to determine how best to decrease vehicle-caused mortality while maintaining...

Outsourcing of KyTC project delivery functions.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-06-01

The rise in daily travelers on highways due to population growth, and higher quality and service expectations of the public, are putting increased demands on DOTs today. These demands, combined with decreasing staff sizes and changing resources, are ...

A diffusion-based approach to stochastic individual growth and energy budget, with consequences to life-history optimization and population dynamics.

PubMed

Filin, I

2009-06-01

Using diffusion processes, I model stochastic individual growth, given exogenous hazards and starvation risk. By maximizing survival to final size, optimal life histories (e.g. switching size for habitat/dietary shift) are determined by two ratios: mean growth rate over growth variance (diffusion coefficient) and mortality rate over mean growth rate; all are size dependent. For example, switching size decreases with either ratio, if both are positive. I provide examples and compare with previous work on risk-sensitive foraging and the energy-predation trade-off. I then decompose individual size into reversibly and irreversibly growing components, e.g. reserves and structure. I provide a general expression for optimal structural growth, when reserves grow stochastically. I conclude that increased growth variance of reserves delays structural growth (raises threshold size for its commencement) but may eventually lead to larger structures. The effect depends on whether the structural trait is related to foraging or defence. Implications for population dynamics are discussed.

Modelling interactions of toxicants and density dependence in wildlife populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schipper, Aafke M.; Hendriks, Harrie W.M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.

2013-01-01

1. A major challenge in the conservation of threatened and endangered species is to predict population decline and design appropriate recovery measures. However, anthropogenic impacts on wildlife populations are notoriously difficult to predict due to potentially nonlinear responses and interactions with natural ecological processes like density dependence. 2. Here, we incorporated both density dependence and anthropogenic stressors in a stage-based matrix population model and parameterized it for a density-dependent population of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus exposed to two anthropogenic toxicants [dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)]. Log-logistic exposure–response relationships were used to translate toxicant concentrations in peregrine falcon eggs to effects on fecundity. Density dependence was modelled as the probability of a nonbreeding bird acquiring a breeding territory as a function of the current number of breeders. 3. The equilibrium size of the population, as represented by the number of breeders, responded nonlinearly to increasing toxicant concentrations, showing a gradual decrease followed by a relatively steep decline. Initially, toxicant-induced reductions in population size were mitigated by an alleviation of the density limitation, that is, an increasing probability of territory acquisition. Once population density was no longer limiting, the toxicant impacts were no longer buffered by an increasing proportion of nonbreeders shifting to the breeding stage, resulting in a strong decrease in the equilibrium number of breeders. 4. Median critical exposure concentrations, that is, median toxicant concentrations in eggs corresponding with an equilibrium population size of zero, were 33 and 46 μg g−1 fresh weight for DDE and PBDEs, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our modelling results showed that particular life stages of a density-limited population may be relatively insensitive to toxicant impacts until a critical threshold is crossed. In our study population, toxicant-induced changes were observed in the equilibrium number of nonbreeding rather than breeding birds, suggesting that monitoring efforts including both life stages are needed to timely detect population declines. Further, by combining quantitative exposure–response relationships with a wildlife demographic model, we provided a method to quantify critical toxicant thresholds for wildlife population persistence.

Effects of scarcity and excess of larval food on life history traits of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae).

PubMed

Romeo Aznar, Victoria; Alem, Iris; De Majo, María Sol; Byttebier, Barbara; Solari, Hernán G; Fischer, Sylvia

2018-06-01

Few studies have assessed the effects of food scarcity or excess on the life history traits of Aedes aegypti (L.) (Diptera: Culicidae) independently from larval density. We assessed immature survival, development time, and adult size in relation to food availability. We reared cohorts of 30 Ae. aegypti larvae from newly hatched to adult emergence with different food availability. Food conditions were kept constant by transferring larvae each day to a new food solution. Immature development was completed by some individuals in all treatments. The shortest development time, the largest adults, and the highest survival were observed at intermediate food levels. The most important effects of food scarcity were an extension in development time, a decrease in the size of adults, and a slight decrease in survival, while the most important effects of food excess were an important decrease in survival and a slight decrease in the size of adults. The variability in development time and adult size within sex and treatment increased at decreasing food availability. The results suggest that although the studied population has adapted to a wide range of food availabilities, both scarcity and excess of food have important negative impacts on fitness. © 2018 The Society for Vector Ecology.

Quantifying long-term population growth rates of threatened bull trout: challenges, lessons learned, and opportunities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Budy, Phaedra; Bowerman, Tracy; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Conner, Mary; Schaller, Howard

2017-01-01

Temporal symmetry models (TSM) represent advances in the analytical application of mark–recapture data to population status assessments. For a population of char, we employed 10 years of active and passive mark–recapture data to quantify population growth rates using different data sources and analytical approaches. Estimates of adult population growth rate were 1.01 (95% confidence interval = 0.84–1.20) using a temporal symmetry model (λTSM), 0.96 (0.68–1.34) based on logistic regressions of annual snorkel data (λA), and 0.92 (0.77–1.11) from redd counts (λR). Top-performing TSMs included an increasing time trend in recruitment (f) and changes in capture probability (p). There was only a 1% chance the population decreased ≥50%, and a 10% chance it decreased ≥30% (λMCMC; based on Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure). Size structure was stable; however, the adult population was dominated by small adults, and over the study period there was a decline in the contribution of large adults to total biomass. Juvenile condition decreased with increasing adult densities. Utilization of these different information sources provided a robust weight-of-evidence approach to identifying population status and potential mechanisms driving changes in population growth rates.

Tuning stochastic matrix models with hydrologic data to predict the population dynamics of a riverine fish

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sakaris, P.C.; Irwin, E.R.

2010-01-01

We developed stochastic matrix models to evaluate the effects of hydrologic alteration and variable mortality on the population dynamics of a lotie fish in a regulated river system. Models were applied to a representative lotic fish species, the flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris), for which two populations were examined: a native population from a regulated reach of the Coosa River (Alabama, USA) and an introduced population from an unregulated section of the Ocmulgee River (Georgia, USA). Size-classified matrix models were constructed for both populations, and residuals from catch-curve regressions were used as indices of year class strength (i.e., recruitment). A multiple regression model indicated that recruitment of flathead catfish in the Coosa River was positively related to the frequency of spring pulses between 283 and 566 m3/s. For the Ocmulgee River population, multiple regression models indicated that year class strength was negatively related to mean March discharge and positively related to June low flow. When the Coosa population was modeled to experience five consecutive years of favorable hydrologic conditions during a 50-year projection period, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.2% annual rate. When modeled to experience five years of unfavorable hydrologic conditions, the Coosa population initially exhibited a decrease in size but later stabilized and increased at a 0.4% annual rate following the decline. When the Ocmulgee River population was modeled to experience five years of favorable conditions, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.4% annual rate. After the Ocmulgee population experienced five years of unfavorable conditions, a sharp decline in population size was predicted. However, the population quickly recovered, with population size increasing at a 0.3% annual rate following the decline. In general, stochastic population growth in the Ocmulgee River was more erratic and variable than population growth in the Coosa River. We encourage ecologists to develop similar models for other lotic species, particularly in regulated river systems. Successful management of fish populations in regulated systems requires that we are able to predict how hydrology affects recruitment and will ultimately influence the population dynamics of fishes. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Drift in Neural Population Activity Causes Working Memory to Deteriorate Over Time.

PubMed

Schneegans, Sebastian; Bays, Paul M

2018-05-23

Short-term memories are thought to be maintained in the form of sustained spiking activity in neural populations. Decreases in recall precision observed with increasing number of memorized items can be accounted for by a limit on total spiking activity, resulting in fewer spikes contributing to the representation of each individual item. Longer retention intervals likewise reduce recall precision, but it is unknown what changes in population activity produce this effect. One possibility is that spiking activity becomes attenuated over time, such that the same mechanism accounts for both effects of set size and retention duration. Alternatively, reduced performance may be caused by drift in the encoded value over time, without a decrease in overall spiking activity. Human participants of either sex performed a variable-delay cued recall task with a saccadic response, providing a precise measure of recall latency. Based on a spike integration model of decision making, if the effects of set size and retention duration are both caused by decreased spiking activity, we would predict a fixed relationship between recall precision and response latency across conditions. In contrast, the drift hypothesis predicts no systematic changes in latency with increasing delays. Our results show both an increase in latency with set size, and a decrease in response precision with longer delays within each set size, but no systematic increase in latency for increasing delay durations. These results were quantitatively reproduced by a model based on a limited neural resource in which working memories drift rather than decay with time. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Rapid deterioration over seconds is a defining feature of short-term memory, but what mechanism drives this degradation of internal representations? Here, we extend a successful population coding model of working memory by introducing possible mechanisms of delay effects. We show that a decay in neural signal over time predicts that the time required for memory retrieval will increase with delay, whereas a random drift in the stored value predicts no effect of delay on retrieval time. Testing these predictions in a multi-item memory task with an eye movement response, we identified drift as a key mechanism of memory decline. These results provide evidence for a dynamic spiking basis for working memory, in contrast to recent proposals of activity-silent storage. Copyright © 2018 Schneegans and Bays.

Widespread rapid reductions in body size of adult salamanders in response to climate change.

PubMed

Caruso, Nicholas M; Sears, Michael W; Adams, Dean C; Lips, Karen R

2014-06-01

Reduction in body size is a major response to climate change, yet evidence in globally imperiled amphibians is lacking. Shifts in average population body size could indicate either plasticity in the growth response to changing climates through changes in allocation and energetics, or through selection for decreased size where energy is limiting. We compared historic and contemporary size measurements in 15 Plethodon species from 102 populations (9450 individuals) and found that six species exhibited significant reductions in body size over 55 years. Biophysical models, accounting for actual changes in moisture and air temperature over that period, showed a 7.1-7.9% increase in metabolic expenditure at three latitudes but showed no change in annual duration of activity. Reduced size was greatest at southern latitudes in regions experiencing the greatest drying and warming. Our results are consistent with a plastic response of body size to climate change through reductions in body size as mediated through increased metabolism. These rapid reductions in body size over the past few decades have significance for the susceptibility of amphibians to environmental change, and relevance for whether adaptation can keep pace with climate change in the future. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events

PubMed Central

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-01-01

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an ‘extinction window’ of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the ‘extinction window’, although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. PMID:24920116

Changing Domesticity of Aedes aegypti in Northern Peninsular Malaysia: Reproductive Consequences and Potential Epidemiological Implications

PubMed Central

Saifur, Rahman G. M.; Dieng, Hamady; Hassan, Ahmad Abu; Salmah, Md Rawi Che; Satho, Tomomitsu; Miake, Fumio; Hamdan, Ahmad

2012-01-01

Background The domestic dengue vector Aedes aegypti mosquitoes breed in indoor containers. However, in northern peninsular Malaysia, they show equal preference for breeding in both indoor and outdoor habitats. To evaluate the epidemiological implications of this peridomestic adaptation, we examined whether Ae. aegypti exhibits decreased survival, gonotrophic activity, and fecundity due to lack of host availability and the changing breeding behavior. Methodology/Principal Findings This yearlong field surveillance identified Ae. aegypti breeding in outdoor containers on an enormous scale. Through a sequence of experiments incorporating outdoors and indoors adapting as well as adapted populations, we observed that indoors provided better environment for the survival of Ae. aegypti and the observed death patterns could be explained on the basis of a difference in body size. The duration of gonotrophic period was much shorter in large-bodied females. Fecundity tended to be greater in indoor acclimated females. We also found increased tendency to multiple feeding in outdoors adapted females, which were smaller in size compared to their outdoors breeding counterparts. Conclusion/Significance The data presented here suggest that acclimatization of Ae. aegypti to the outdoor environment may not decrease its lifespan or gonotrophic activity but rather increase breeding opportunities (increased number of discarded containers outdoors), the rate of larval development, but small body sizes at emergence. Size is likely to be correlated with disease transmission. In general, small size in Aedes females will favor increased blood-feeding frequency resulting in higher population sizes and disease occurrence. PMID:22363516

Changing domesticity of Aedes aegypti in northern peninsular Malaysia: reproductive consequences and potential epidemiological implications.

PubMed

Saifur, Rahman G M; Dieng, Hamady; Hassan, Ahmad Abu; Salmah, Md Rawi Che; Satho, Tomomitsu; Miake, Fumio; Hamdan, Ahmad

2012-01-01

The domestic dengue vector Aedes aegypti mosquitoes breed in indoor containers. However, in northern peninsular Malaysia, they show equal preference for breeding in both indoor and outdoor habitats. To evaluate the epidemiological implications of this peridomestic adaptation, we examined whether Ae. aegypti exhibits decreased survival, gonotrophic activity, and fecundity due to lack of host availability and the changing breeding behavior. This yearlong field surveillance identified Ae. aegypti breeding in outdoor containers on an enormous scale. Through a sequence of experiments incorporating outdoors and indoors adapting as well as adapted populations, we observed that indoors provided better environment for the survival of Ae. aegypti and the observed death patterns could be explained on the basis of a difference in body size. The duration of gonotrophic period was much shorter in large-bodied females. Fecundity tended to be greater in indoor acclimated females. We also found increased tendency to multiple feeding in outdoors adapted females, which were smaller in size compared to their outdoors breeding counterparts. The data presented here suggest that acclimatization of Ae. aegypti to the outdoor environment may not decrease its lifespan or gonotrophic activity but rather increase breeding opportunities (increased number of discarded containers outdoors), the rate of larval development, but small body sizes at emergence. Size is likely to be correlated with disease transmission. In general, small size in Aedes females will favor increased blood-feeding frequency resulting in higher population sizes and disease occurrence.

Latitudinal patterns in the life-history traits of three isolated Atlantic populations of the deep-water shrimp Plesionika edwardsii (Decapoda, Pandalidae)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González, José A.; Pajuelo, José G.; Triay-Portella, Raül; Ruiz-Díaz, Raquel; Delgado, João; Góis, Ana R.; Martins, Albertino

2016-11-01

Patterns in the life-history traits of the pandalid shrimp Plesionika edwardsii are studied for the first time in three isolated Atlantic populations (Madeira, Canaries and Cape Verde Islands) to gain an understanding of their latitudinal variations. The maximum carapace size of the populations studied, as well as the maximum weight, showed clear latitudinal patterns. The patterns observed may be a consequence of the temperature experienced by shrimps during development, 1.37 ° C higher in the Canaries and 5.96 ° C higher in the Cape Verde Islands than in Madeira. These temperature differences among populations may have induced phenotypic plasticity because the observed final body size decreased as the temperature increased. A latitudinal north-south pattern was also observed in the maximum size of ovigerous females, with larger sizes found in the Madeira area and lower sizes observed in the Cape Verde Islands. A similar pattern was observed in the brood size and maximum egg size. Females of P. edwardsii produced smaller eggs in the Cape Verde Islands than did those at the higher latitude in Madeira. P. edwardsii was larger at sexual maturity in Madeira than in the Cape Verde Islands. The relative size at sexual maturity is not affected by latitude or environmental factors and is the same in the three areas studied, varying slightly between 0.568 and 0.585. P. edwardsii had a long reproductive season with ovigerous females observed all year round, although latitudinal variations were observed. Seasonally, there were more ovigerous females in spring and summer in Madeira and from winter to summer in the Cape Verde Islands. P. edwardsii showed a latitudinal pattern in size, with asymptotic size and growth rate showing a latitudinal compensation gradient as a result of an increased growth performance in the Madeira population compared to that of the Cape Verde Islands.

Effects of alewife predation on zooplankton populations in Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wells, LaRue

1970-01-01

The zooplankton populations in southeastern Lake Michigan underwent striking, size-related changes between 1954 and 1966. Forms that decline sharply were the largest cladocerans (Leptodora kindtii, Daphnia galeata, and D. retrocurva), the largest calanoid copepods (Limnocalanus macrurus, Epischura lacustris, and Diaptomus sicilis), and the largest cyclopoid copepod (Mesocyclops edax). Two of these, D. galeata and M. edax (both abundant in 1954), became extremely rare. Certain medium-sized or small species increased in numbers: Daphnia longiremis, Holopedium gibberum, Polyphemus pediculus, Bosmina longirostris, Bosmina coregoni, Ceriodaphnia sp., Cyclops bicuspidatus, Cyclops vernalis, and Diaptomus ashlandi. Evidence is strong that the changes were due to selective predation by alewives. The alewife was uncommon in southeastern Lake Michigan in 1954 but had increased to enormous proportions by 1966; there was a massive dieoff in spring 1967, and abundance remained relatively low in 1968. The composition of zooplankton populations in 1968 generally had shifted back toward that of 1954, although D. galeata and M. edax remained rare. The average size, and size at onset of maturity, of D. retrocurva decreased noticeably between 1954 and 1966 but increased between 1966 and 1968.

Local population extinction and vitality of an epiphytic lichen in fragmented old-growth forest.

PubMed

Ockinger, Erik; Nilsson, Sven G

2010-07-01

The population dynamics of organisms living in short-lived habitats will largely depend on the turnover of habitat patches. It has been suggested that epiphytes, whose host plants can be regarded as habitat patches, often form such patch-tracking populations. However, very little is known about the long-term fate of epiphyte individuals and populations. We estimated life span and assessed environmental factors influencing changes in vitality, fertility, abundance, and distribution of the epiphytic lichen species Lobaria pulmonaria on two spatial scales, individual trees and forest patches, over a period of approximately 10 years in 66 old-growth forest fragments. The lichen had gone extinct from 7 of the 66 sites (13.0%) where it was found 10 years earlier, even though the sites remained unchanged. The risk of local population extinction increased with decreasing population size. In contrast to the decrease in the number of occupied trees and sites, the mean area of the lichen per tree increased by 43.0%. The number of trees with fertile ramets of L. pulmonaria increased from 7 (approximately 1%) to 61 (approximately 10%) trees, and the number of forest fragments with fertile ramets increased from 4 to 23 fragments. The mean annual rate of L. pulmonaria extinction at the tree level was estimated to be 2.52%, translating into an expected lifetime of 39.7 years. This disappearance rate is higher than estimated mortality rates for potential host trees. The risk of extinction at the tree level was significantly positively related to tree circumference and differed between tree species. The probability of presence of fertile ramets increased significantly with local population size. Our results show a long expected lifetime of Lobaria pulmonaria ramets on individual trees and a recent increase in vitality, probably due to decreasing air pollution. The population is, however, declining slowly even though remaining stands are left uncut, which we interpret as an extinction debt.

Genetic identity affects performance of species in grasslands of different plant diversity: an experiment with Lolium perenne cultivars.

PubMed

Roscher, Christiane; Schumacher, Jens; Weisser, Wolfgang W; Schulze, Ernst-Detlef

2008-07-01

Recent biodiversity research has focused on ecosystem processes, but less is known about responses of populations of individual plant species to changing community diversity and implications of genetic variation within species. To address these issues, effects of plant community diversity on the performance of different cultivars of Lolium perenne were analysed. Populations of 15 genetic cultivars of Lolium perenne were established in experimental grasslands varying in richness of species (from 1 to 60) and functional groups (from 1 to 4). Population sizes, mean size of individual plants, biomass of individual shoots and seed production were measured in the first and second growing season after establishment. Population sizes of all cultivars decreased with increasing community species richness. Plant individuals formed fewer shoots with a lower shoot mass in more species-rich plant communities. A large proportion of variation in plant size and relative population growth was attributable to effects of community species and functional group richness, but the inclusion of cultivar identity explained additional 4-7 % of variation. Cultivar identity explained most variation (28-51 %) at the shoot level (biomass of individual tillers and reproductive shoots, seed production, heading stage). Coefficients of variation of the measured variables across plant communities were larger in cultivars with a lower average performance, indicating that this variation was predominantly due to passive growth reductions and not a consequence of larger adaptive plastic responses. No single cultivar performed best in all communities. The decreasing performance of Lolium perenne in plant communities of increasing species richness suggests a regulation of competitive interactions by species diversity. Genetic variation within species provides a base for larger phenotypic variation and may affect competitive ability. However, heterogeneous biotic environments (= plant communities of different species composition) are important for the maintenance of intra-specific genetic variation.

Lowered Diversity and Increased Inbreeding Depression within Peripheral Populations of Wild Rice Oryza rufipogon.

PubMed

Gao, Li-Zhi; Gao, Cheng-Wen

2016-01-01

The distribution of genetic variability from the interior towards the periphery of a species' range is of great interest to evolutionary biologists. Although it has been long presumed that population genetic variation should decrease as a species' range is approached, results of empirical investigations still remain ambiguous. Knowledge regarding patterns of genetic variability as well as affected factors is particularly not conclusive in plants. To determine genetic divergence in peripheral populations of the wild rice Oryza rufipogon Griff. from China, genetic diversity and population structure were studied in five northern & northeastern peripheral and 16 central populations using six microsatellite loci. We found that populations resided at peripheries of the species possessed markedly decreased microsatellite diversity than those located in its center. Population size was observed to be positively correlated with microsatellite diversity. Moreover, there are significantly positive correlations between levels of microsatellite diversity and distances from the northern and northeastern periphery of this species. To investigate genetic structure and heterozygosity variation between generations of O. rufipogon, a total of 2382 progeny seeds from 186 maternal families were further assayed from three peripheral and central populations, respectively. Peripheral populations exhibited significantly lower levels of heterozygosities than central populations for both seed and maternal generations. In comparisons with maternal samples, significantly low observed heterozygosity (HO) and high heterozygote deficit within populations (FIS) values were detected in seed samples from both peripheral and central populations. Significantly lower observed heterozygosity (HO) and higher FIS values were further observed in peripheral populations than those in central populations for seed samples. The results indicate an excess of homozygotes and thus high inbreeding depression in peripheral populations. Our results together suggest that historical contraction of geographical range, demographic changes, and environmental conditions near the northern and northeastern margins of O. rufipogon favor inbreeding and possibly selfing, leading to the rapidly decreased effective population size. Genetic drift, reduced gene flow, and possible local selection, consequently lead to lowered gene diversity, accelerated genetic divergence and increased inbreeding depression found in peripheral populations of O. rufipogon. Given these characteristics observed, northern and northeastern peripheral populations deserve relatively different conservation strategies for either germplasm sampling of ex situ conservation or setting in situ reserves for the adaptation to possible environmental changes and the future germplasm utilization of wild rice.

Role of Demographic Dynamics and Conflict in the Population-Area Relationship for Human Languages

PubMed Central

Manrubia, Susanna C.; Axelsen, Jacob B.; Zanette, Damián H.

2012-01-01

Many patterns displayed by the distribution of human linguistic groups are similar to the ecological organization described for biological species. It remains a challenge to identify simple and meaningful processes that describe these patterns. The population size distribution of human linguistic groups, for example, is well fitted by a log-normal distribution that may arise from stochastic demographic processes. As we show in this contribution, the distribution of the area size of home ranges of those groups also agrees with a log-normal function. Further, size and area are significantly correlated: the number of speakers and the area spanned by linguistic groups follow the allometric relation , with an exponent varying accross different world regions. The empirical evidence presented leads to the hypothesis that the distributions of and , and their mutual dependence, rely on demographic dynamics and on the result of conflicts over territory due to group growth. To substantiate this point, we introduce a two-variable stochastic multiplicative model whose analytical solution recovers the empirical observations. Applied to different world regions, the model reveals that the retreat in home range is sublinear with respect to the decrease in population size, and that the population-area exponent grows with the typical strength of conflicts. While the shape of the population size and area distributions, and their allometric relation, seem unavoidable outcomes of demography and inter-group contact, the precise value of could give insight on the cultural organization of those human groups in the last thousand years. PMID:22815726

Living in isolation - population structure, reproduction, and genetic variation of the endangered plant species Dianthus gratianopolitanus (Cheddar pink).

PubMed

Putz, Christina M; Schmid, Christoph; Reisch, Christoph

2015-09-01

The endangered plant species Dianthus gratianopolitanus exhibits a highly fragmented distribution range comprising many isolated populations. Based upon this pattern of distribution, we selected a study region in Switzerland with a lower magnitude of isolation (Swiss Jura) and another study region in Germany with a higher degree of isolation (Franconian Jura). In each region, we chose ten populations to analyze population structure, reproduction, and genetic variation in a comparative approach. Therefore, we determined population density, cushion size, and cushion density to analyze population structure, investigated reproductive traits, including number of flowers, capsules, and germination rate, and analyzed amplified fragment length polymorphisms to study genetic variation. Population and cushion density were credibly higher in German than in Swiss populations, whereas reproductive traits and genetic variation within populations were similar in both study regions. However, genetic variation among populations and isolation by distance were stronger in Germany than in Switzerland. Generally, cushion size and density as well as flower and capsule production increased with population size and density, whereas genetic variation decreased with population density. In contrast to our assumptions, we observed denser populations and cushions in the region with the higher magnitude of isolation, whereas reproductive traits and genetic variation within populations were comparable in both regions. This corroborates the assumption that stronger isolation must not necessarily result in the loss of fitness and genetic variation. Furthermore, it supports our conclusion that the protection of strongly isolated populations contributes essentially to the conservation of a species' full evolutionary potential.

Allometric shape change and heterochrony in the freeliving coral Trachyphyllia bilobata (Duncan)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, Ann Budd; Johnson, Kenneth G.; Schultz, Lori L.

1988-05-01

Regression analysis has been used to study the relationship between age, size, shape, and surface area in two ancestral-descendant populations of the Neogene Caribbean coral Trachyphyllia bilobata. Analyses of the relationship between size and age show that the relationship is isometric and that little difference occurs between populations in mean corallite length or height and in their rates of growth. Onset of columella growth is significantly earlier, however, in the descendant population. Studies of the relationship between size and shape show that growth is allometric, with shape change occurring in both corallum elongation and pinching of the corallite wall during ontogeny. In the descendant population, pinching and elongation initiate earlier in the ontogeny of the coral. These results suggest that the evolutionary development of the meandroid form in freeliving corals has been accomplished by heterochrony, involving a complex set of disassociated peramorphic changes in ontogeny accompanied by paedomorphic changes in astogeny. Further analyses show that the observed heterochronic changes serve to decrease corallum surface area which may in turn enhance sediment removal and nutrition in unstable habitats.

Status and trends of the rainbow trout population in the Lees Ferry reach of the Colorado River downstream from Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona, 1991–2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Makinster, Andrew S.; Persons, William R.; Avery, Luke A.

2011-01-01

The Lees Ferry reach of the Colorado River, a 25-kilometer segment of river located immediately downstream from Glen Canyon Dam, has contained a nonnative rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) sport fishery since it was first stocked in 1964. The fishery has evolved over time in response to changes in dam operations and fish management. Long-term monitoring of the rainbow trout population downstream of Glen Canyon Dam is an essential component of the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program. A standardized sampling design was implemented in 1991 and has changed several times in response to independent, external scientific-review recommendations and budget constraints. Population metrics (catch per unit effort, proportional stock density, and relative condition) were estimated from 1991 to 2009 by combining data collected at fixed sampling sites during this time period and at random sampling sites from 2002 to 2009. The validity of combining population metrics for data collected at fixed and random sites was confirmed by a one-way analysis of variance by fish-length class size. Analysis of the rainbow trout population metrics from 1991 to 2009 showed that the abundance of rainbow trout increased from 1991 to 1997, following implementation of a more steady flow regime, but declined from about 2000 to 2007. Abundance in 2008 and 2009 was high compared to previous years, which was likely the result of increased early survival caused by improved habitat conditions following the 2008 high-flow experiment at Glen Canyon Dam. Proportional stock density declined between 1991 and 2006, reflecting increased natural reproduction and large numbers of small fish in samples. Since 2001, the proportional stock density has been relatively stable. Relative condition varied with size class of rainbow trout but has been relatively stable since 1991 for fish smaller than 152 millimeters (mm), except for a substantial decrease in 2009. Relative condition was more variable for larger size classes, and substantial decreases were observed for the 152-304-mm size class in 2009 and 305-405-mm size class in 2008 that persisted into 2009.

Local health department epidemiologic capacity: a stratified cross-sectional assessment describing the quantity, education, training, and perceived competencies of epidemiologic staff.

PubMed

O'Keefe, Kaitlin A; Shafir, Shira C; Shoaf, Kimberley I

2013-01-01

Local health departments (LHDs) must have sufficient numbers of staff functioning in an epidemiologic role with proper education, training, and skills to protect the health of communities they serve. This pilot study was designed to describe the composition, training, and competency level of LHD staff and examine the hypothesis that potential disparities exist between LHDs serving different sized populations. Cross-sectional surveys were conducted with directors and epidemiologic staff from a sample of 100 LHDs serving jurisdictions of varied sizes. Questionnaires included inquiries regarding staff composition, education, training, and measures of competency modeled on previously conducted studies by the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists. Number of epidemiologic staff, academic degree distribution, epidemiologic training, and both director and staff confidence in task competencies were calculated for each LHD size strata. Disparities in measurements were observed in LHDs serving different sized populations. LHDs serving small populations reported a smaller average number of epidemiologic staff than those serving larger jurisdictions. As size of population served increased, percentages of staff and directors holding bachelors' and masters' degrees increased, while those holding RN degrees decreased. A higher degree of perceived competency of staff in most task categories was reported in LHDs serving larger populations. LHDs serving smaller populations reported fewer epidemiologic staff, therefore might benefit from additional resources. Differences observed in staff education, training, and competencies suggest that enhanced epidemiologic training might be particularly needed in LHDs serving smaller populations. RESULTS can be used as a baseline for future research aimed at identifying areas where training and personnel resources might be particularly needed to increase the capabilities of LHDs.

Genetic diversity of Morato's Digger Toad, Proceratophrys moratoi: spatial structure, gene flow, effective size and the need for differential management strategies of populations.

PubMed

Arruda, Mauricio P; Costa, William P; Recco-Pimentel, Shirlei M

2017-01-01

The Morato's Digger Toad, Proceratophrys moratoi, is a critically endangered toad species with a marked population decline in southern Brazilian Cerrado. Despite this, new populations are being discovered, primarily in the northern part of the distribution range, which raises a number of questions with regard to the conservation status of the species. The present study analyzed the genetic diversity of the species based on microsatellite markers. Our findings permitted the identification of two distinct management units. We found profound genetic structuring between the southern populations, on the left margin of the Tietê River, and all other populations. A marked reduction was observed in the contemporary gene flow among the central populations that are most affected by anthropogenic impacts, such as extensive sugar cane plantations, which presumably decreases habitat connectivity. The results indicated reduced diversity in the southern populations which, combined with a smaller effective population size, may make these populations more susceptible to extinction. We recommend the reclassification of P. moratoi as vulnerable and the establishment of a special protection program for the southern populations. Our results provide important insights about the local extinction of southern populations of this toad.

Migrants, healthy worker effect, and mortality trends in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.

PubMed

Chaabna, Karima; Cheema, Sohaila; Mamtani, Ravinder

2017-01-01

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia, have experienced unique demographic changes. The major population growth contributor in these countries is young migrants, which has led to a shift in the population age pyramid. Migrants constitute the vast proportion of GCC countries' population reaching >80% in Qatar and UAE. Using Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015) and United Nations data, for the GCC countries, we assessed the association between age-standardized mortality and population size trends with linear and polynomial regressions. In 1990-2015, all-cause age-standardized mortality was inversely proportional to national population size (p-values: 0.0001-0.0457). In Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, the highest annual decrease in mortality was observed when the annual population growth was the highest. In Qatar, all-cause age-specific mortality was inversely proportional to age-specific population size. This association was statistically significant among the 5-14 and 15-49 age groups, which have the largest population size. Cause-specific age-standardized mortality was also inversely proportional to population size. This association was statistically significant for half of the GBD 2015-defined causes of death such as "cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases" and "HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis". Remarkably, incoming migrants to Qatar have to be negative for HIV, hepatitis B and C, and tuberculosis. These results show that decline in mortality can be partly attributed to the increase in GCC countries' population suggesting a healthy migrant effect that influences mortality rates. Consequently, benefits of health interventions and healthcare improvement are likely to be exaggerated in such countries hosting a substantial proportion of migrants compared with countries where migration is low. Researchers and policymakers should be cautious to not exclusively attribute decline in mortality within the GCC countries as a result of the positive effects of health interventions or healthcare improvement.

Migrants, healthy worker effect, and mortality trends in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries

PubMed Central

Cheema, Sohaila; Mamtani, Ravinder

2017-01-01

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia, have experienced unique demographic changes. The major population growth contributor in these countries is young migrants, which has led to a shift in the population age pyramid. Migrants constitute the vast proportion of GCC countries’ population reaching >80% in Qatar and UAE. Using Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015) and United Nations data, for the GCC countries, we assessed the association between age-standardized mortality and population size trends with linear and polynomial regressions. In 1990–2015, all-cause age-standardized mortality was inversely proportional to national population size (p-values: 0.0001–0.0457). In Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, the highest annual decrease in mortality was observed when the annual population growth was the highest. In Qatar, all-cause age-specific mortality was inversely proportional to age-specific population size. This association was statistically significant among the 5–14 and 15–49 age groups, which have the largest population size. Cause-specific age-standardized mortality was also inversely proportional to population size. This association was statistically significant for half of the GBD 2015-defined causes of death such as “cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases” and “HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis”. Remarkably, incoming migrants to Qatar have to be negative for HIV, hepatitis B and C, and tuberculosis. These results show that decline in mortality can be partly attributed to the increase in GCC countries’ population suggesting a healthy migrant effect that influences mortality rates. Consequently, benefits of health interventions and healthcare improvement are likely to be exaggerated in such countries hosting a substantial proportion of migrants compared with countries where migration is low. Researchers and policymakers should be cautious to not exclusively attribute decline in mortality within the GCC countries as a result of the positive effects of health interventions or healthcare improvement. PMID:28632794

Logistic analysis of shovel and Carabelli's tooth traits in a Caucasoid population.

PubMed

Hsu, J W; Tsai, P; Liu, K; Ferguson, D

1997-09-19

Caucasoid populations differ from Mongoloids by having a high prevalence of Carabelli's trait and a low prevalence of shovel trait. This study was conducted to investigate the association between the shovel and the Carabelli's traits in a Caucasoid population. The research design sought a Caucasoid population at Milwaukee of Wisconsin in United States. The Caucasoid group selected for study was the European descendant. The effects of sex and age on Carabelli's trait were controlled in this investigation, as was the association between tooth size and Carabelli's trait. Results show that males were more likely to have Carabelli's trait expressed on teeth than females. The buccolingual diameter of Carabelli's trait teeth was larger than that of teeth without the trait. After adjusting for sex, age, and tooth size, the existence of the shovel trait decreased the likelihood of having Carabelli's trait which shows an significant effect.

Human population, grasshopper and plant species richness in European countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steck, Claude E.; Pautasso, Marco

2008-11-01

Surprisingly, several studies over large scales have reported a positive spatial correlation of people and biodiversity. This pattern has important implications for conservation and has been documented for well studied taxa such as plants, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. However, it is unknown whether the pattern applies also to invertebrates other than butterflies and more work is needed to establish whether the species-people relationship is explained by both variables correlating with other environmental factors. We studied whether grasshopper species richness (Orthoptera, suborder Caelifera) is related to human population size in European countries. As expected, the number of Caelifera species increases significantly with increasing human population size. But this is not the case when controlling for country area, latitude and number of plant species. Variations in Caelifera species richness are primarily associated with variations in plant species richness. Caelifera species richness also increases with decreasing mean annual precipitation, Gross Domestic Product per capita (used as an indicator for economic development) and net fertility rate of the human population. Our analysis confirms the hypothesis that the broad-scale human population-biodiversity correlations can be explained by concurrent variations in factors other than human population size such as plant species richness, environmental productivity, or habitat heterogeneity. Nonetheless, more populated countries in Europe still have more Caelifera species than less populated countries and this poses a particular challenge for conservation.

Are heritability and selection related to population size in nature? Meta-analysis and conservation implications.

PubMed

Wood, Jacquelyn L A; Yates, Matthew C; Fraser, Dylan J

2016-06-01

It is widely thought that small populations should have less additive genetic variance and respond less efficiently to natural selection than large populations. Across taxa, we meta-analytically quantified the relationship between adult census population size (N) and additive genetic variance (proxy: h (2)) and found no reduction in h (2) with decreasing N; surveyed populations ranged from four to one million individuals (1735 h (2) estimates, 146 populations, 83 species). In terms of adaptation, ecological conditions may systematically differ between populations of varying N; the magnitude of selection these populations experience may therefore also differ. We thus also meta-analytically tested whether selection changes with N and found little evidence for systematic differences in the strength, direction or form of selection with N across different trait types and taxa (7344 selection estimates, 172 populations, 80 species). Collectively, our results (i) indirectly suggest that genetic drift neither overwhelms selection more in small than in large natural populations, nor weakens adaptive potential/h (2) in small populations, and (ii) imply that natural populations of varying sizes experience a variety of environmental conditions, without consistently differing habitat quality at small N. However, we caution that the data are currently insufficient to determine whether some small populations may retain adaptive potential definitively. Further study is required into (i) selection and genetic variation in completely isolated populations of known N, under-represented taxonomic groups, and nongeneralist species, (ii) adaptive potential using multidimensional approaches and (iii) the nature of selective pressures for specific traits.

Hematite spherules at Meridiani: Results from MI, Mini-TES, and Pancam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvin, W. M.; Shoffner, J. D.; Johnson, J. R.; Knoll, A. H.; Pocock, J. M.; Squyres, S. W.; Weitz, C. M.; Arvidson, R. E.; Bell, J. F.; Christensen, P. R.; de Souza, P. A.; Farrand, W. H.; Glotch, T. D.; Herkenhoff, K. E.; Jolliff, B. L.; Knudson, A. T.; McLennan, S. M.; Rogers, A. D.; Thompson, S. D.

2008-12-01

We report on observations of hematite-bearing spherules at Meridiani Planum made using the Microscopic Imager (MI), Mini-Thermal Emission Spectrometer (Mini-TES), and Panoramic Camera (Pancam) instruments on the Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity. Spherules were observed on soil surfaces and in outcrop rocks, both on undisturbed surfaces and in abraded surfaces ground using the Rock Abrasion Tool (RAT). Spherule size and shape change little along the 850 m eastward traverse from Eagle Crater to Endurance Crater, but spherules decrease and then slightly increase in size along the 6 km traverse from Endurance south to Victoria Crater. Local populations range from submillimeters to several millimeters in diameter. An additional small diameter (100 μm) size population is possible. An increase in irregular shapes is found near Victoria Crater. This, combined with the size decrease south of Endurance, suggests either a changing depositional environment, or variation in the duration and timing of diagenetic events. The dominant smaller size population observed early in the mission in aeolian areas and ripple crests is observed as the primary size population in abraded outcrop farther south. This suggests that successively younger beds are exposed at the surface along the southward traverse. Stratigraphically higher units removed by erosion could be recorded by the present surface lag deposit. Coordinated systematic observations are used to determine optical and infrared hematite indices of the surface soils in Pancam and Mini-TES. In spite of the systematic variation seen in MI, both Pancam and Mini-TES indices are highly variable based on the local surface, and neither show systematic trends south of Endurance. The lack of a 390 cm-1 feature in Mini-TES spectra suggests concentric or radial interior structure within the spherules at scales too fine for MI to observe. Mini-TES does not detect any silicate component in the spherules. A bound water component in soils or in exchange with the atmosphere is observed. These spherules have been previously interpreted as concretions formed within what were once water-saturated, diagenetically altered ``dirty evaporate'' sandstone sediments. Our observations support this interpretation; however, no single terrestrial analog provides a model that can account for all attributes of the spherules on Mars.

Hematite spherules at Meridiani: results from MI, Mini-TES, and Pancam

USGS Publications Warehouse

Calvin, W.M.; Shoffner, J.D.; Johnson, J. R.; Knoll, A.H.; Pocock, J.M.; Squyres, S. W.; Weitz, C.M.; Arvidson, R. E.; Bell, J.F.; Christensen, P.R.; de Souza, P. A.; Farrand, W. H.; Glotch, T.D.; Herkenhoff, K. E.; Jolliff, B.L.; Knudson, A.T.; McLennan, S.M.; Rogers, A.D.; Thompson, S.D.

2008-01-01

We report on observations of hematite-bearing spherules at Meridiani Planum made using the Microscopic Imager (MI), Mini-Thermal Emission Spectrometer (Mini-TES), and Panoramic Camera (Pancam) instruments on the Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity. Spherules were observed on soil surfaces and in outcrop rocks, both on undisturbed surfaces and in abraded surfaces ground using the Rock Abrasion Tool (RAT). Spherule size and shape change little along the 850 m eastward traverse from Eagle Crater to Endurance Crater, but spherules decrease and then slightly increase in size along the 6 km traverse from Endurance south to Victoria Crater. Local populations range from submillimeters to several millimeters in diameter. An additional small diameter (100 μm) size population is possible. An increase in irregular shapes is found near Victoria Crater. This, combined with the size decrease south of Endurance, suggests either a changing depositional environment, or variation in the duration and timing of diagenetic events. The dominant smaller size population observed early in the mission in aeolian areas and ripple crests is observed as the primary size population in abraded outcrop farther south. This suggests that successively younger beds are exposed at the surface along the southward traverse. Stratigraphically higher units removed by erosion could be recorded by the present surface lag deposit. Coordinated systematic observations are used to determine optical and infrared hematite indices of the surface soils in Pancam and Mini-TES. In spite of the systematic variation seen in MI, both Pancam and Mini-TES indices are highly variable based on the local surface, and neither show systematic trends south of Endurance. The lack of a 390 cm?1 feature in Mini-TES spectra suggests concentric or radial interior structure within the spherules at scales too fine for MI to observe. Mini-TES does not detect any silicate component in the spherules. A bound water component in soils or in exchange with the atmosphere is observed. These spherules have been previously interpreted as concretions formed within what were once water-saturated, diagenetically altered ?dirty evaporate? sandstone sediments. Our observations support this interpretation; however, no single terrestrial analog provides a model that can account for all attributes of the spherules on Mars.

Fame emerges as a result of small memory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bingol, Haluk

2008-03-01

A dynamic memory model is proposed in which an agent “learns” a new agent by means of recommendation. The agents can also “remember” and “forget.” The memory size is decreased while the population size is kept constant. “Fame” emerged as a few agents become very well known in expense of the majority being completely forgotten. The minimum and the maximum of fame change linearly with the relative memory size. The network properties of the who-knows-who graph, which represents the state of the system, are investigated.

Changes in the selection differential exerted on a marine snail during the ontogeny of a predatory shore crab.

PubMed

Pakes, D; Boulding, E G

2010-08-01

Empirical estimates of selection gradients caused by predators are common, yet no one has quantified how these estimates vary with predator ontogeny. We used logistic regression to investigate how selection on gastropod shell thickness changed with predator size. Only small and medium purple shore crabs (Hemigrapsus nudus) exerted a linear selection gradient for increased shell-thickness within a single population of the intertidal snail (Littorina subrotundata). The shape of the fitness function for shell thickness was confirmed to be linear for small and medium crabs but was humped for large male crabs, suggesting no directional selection. A second experiment using two prey species to amplify shell thickness differences established that the selection differential on adult snails decreased linearly as crab size increased. We observed differences in size distribution and sex ratios among three natural shore crab populations that may cause spatial and temporal variation in predator-mediated selection on local snail populations.

Methionine: a new biopesticide for use in mosquito management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Mosquito larvicides are an effective means of source reduction, controlling the population size so that the number of adult females that are present to bite and potentially spread pathogenic organisms is decreased. Currently utilized mosquito larvicides include insect growth regulators, organophosph...

Ecological opportunity and predator–prey interactions: linking eco-evolutionary processes and diversification in adaptive radiations

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Much of life's diversity has arisen through ecological opportunity and adaptive radiations, but the mechanistic underpinning of such diversification is not fully understood. Competition and predation can affect adaptive radiations, but contrasting theoretical and empirical results show that they can both promote and interrupt diversification. A mechanistic understanding of the link between microevolutionary processes and macroevolutionary patterns is thus needed, especially in trophic communities. Here, we use a trait-based eco-evolutionary model to investigate the mechanisms linking competition, predation and adaptive radiations. By combining available micro-evolutionary theory and simulations of adaptive radiations we show that intraspecific competition is crucial for diversification as it induces disruptive selection, in particular in early phases of radiation. The diversification rate is however decreased in later phases owing to interspecific competition as niche availability, and population sizes are decreased. We provide new insight into how predation tends to have a negative effect on prey diversification through decreased population sizes, decreased disruptive selection and through the exclusion of prey from parts of niche space. The seemingly disparate effects of competition and predation on adaptive radiations, listed in the literature, may thus be acting and interacting in the same adaptive radiation at different relative strength as the radiation progresses. PMID:29514970

Influence of family size and birth order on risk of cancer: a population-based study.

PubMed

Bevier, Melanie; Weires, Marianne; Thomsen, Hauke; Sundquist, Jan; Hemminki, Kari

2011-05-09

Family size and birth order are known to influence the risk of some cancers. However, it is still unknown whether these effects change from early to later adulthood. We used the data of the Swedish Family-Cancer Database to further analyze these effects. We selected over 5.7 million offspring with identified parents but no parental cancer. We estimated the effect of birth order and family size by Poisson regression adjusted for age, sex, period, region and socioeconomic status. We divided the age at diagnosis in two groups, below and over 50 years, to identify the effect of family size and birth order for different age periods. Negative associations for increasing birth order were found for endometrial, testicular, skin, thyroid and connective tissue cancers and melanoma. In contrast, we observed positive association between birth order and lung, male and female genital cancers. Family size was associated with decreasing risk for endometrial and testicular cancers, melanoma and squamous cell carcinoma; risk was increased for leukemia and nervous system cancer. The effect of birth order decreased for lung and endometrial cancer from age at diagnosis below to over 50 years. Combined effects for birth order and family size were marginally significant for thyroid gland tumors. Especially, the relative risk for follicular thyroid gland tumors was significantly decreased for increasing birth order. Our findings suggest that the effect of birth order decreases from early to late adulthood for lung and endometrial cancer.

Evolution of stochastic demography with life history tradeoffs in density-dependent age-structured populations.

PubMed

Lande, Russell; Engen, Steinar; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2017-10-31

We analyze the stochastic demography and evolution of a density-dependent age- (or stage-) structured population in a fluctuating environment. A positive linear combination of age classes (e.g., weighted by body mass) is assumed to act as the single variable of population size, [Formula: see text], exerting density dependence on age-specific vital rates through an increasing function of population size. The environment fluctuates in a stationary distribution with no autocorrelation. We show by analysis and simulation of age structure, under assumptions often met by vertebrate populations, that the stochastic dynamics of population size can be accurately approximated by a univariate model governed by three key demographic parameters: the intrinsic rate of increase and carrying capacity in the average environment, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], and the environmental variance in population growth rate, [Formula: see text] Allowing these parameters to be genetically variable and to evolve, but assuming that a fourth parameter, [Formula: see text], measuring the nonlinearity of density dependence, remains constant, the expected evolution maximizes [Formula: see text] This shows that the magnitude of environmental stochasticity governs the classical trade-off between selection for higher [Formula: see text] versus higher [Formula: see text] However, selection also acts to decrease [Formula: see text], so the simple life-history trade-off between [Formula: see text]- and [Formula: see text]-selection may be obscured by additional trade-offs between them and [Formula: see text] Under the classical logistic model of population growth with linear density dependence ([Formula: see text]), life-history evolution in a fluctuating environment tends to maximize the average population size. Published under the PNAS license.

Evolution of Size and Chemical Composition of Copper Concentrate Particles Oxidized Under Simulated Flash Smelting Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pérez-Tello, Manuel; Parra-Sánchez, Víctor R.; Sánchez-Corrales, Víctor M.; Gómez-Álvarez, Agustín; Brown-Bojórquez, Francisco; Parra-Figueroa, Roberto A.; Balladares-Varela, Eduardo R.; Araneda-Hernández, Eugenia A.

2018-04-01

An experimental study was conducted to elucidate the evolution of size and chemical composition of La Caridad copper concentrate particles during oxidation under simulated flash smelting conditions. Input variables tested included particle size and oxygen concentration in the process gas. The response variables included the size distributions, chemical composition, and morphology of the reacted particles at seven locations along a laboratory reactor. Particles with initial size < 45 µm contained mostly chalcopyrite, they increased their mean size and decreased the amount of dust in the population during oxidation. This was explained by a reaction path involving rapid melting followed by collision and coalescence of reacting droplets during flight. Particles with sizes > 45 µm contained varying amounts of chalcopyrite and pyrite, and tended to either maintain or decrease their mean size upon oxidation. When size reduction was observed, dust was produced because of fragmentation, and the particles showed no evidence of collisions during flight. The main oxidation products detected in the particles consisted of matte, cuprospinel, and magnetite. A plot of the mean size divided by the mean size in the feed against the fraction of sulfur eliminated generalized the experimental data so far reported in the literature, and helped identify the reaction path followed by the particles.

Leveraging the Happy Meal Effect: Substituting Food with Modest Nonfood Incentives Decreases Portion Size Choice

PubMed Central

Reimann, Martin; Bechara, Antoine; MacInnis, Deborah

2015-01-01

Despite much effort to decrease food intake by altering portion sizes, “super-sized” meals are the preferred choice of many. This research investigated the extent to which individuals can be subtly incentivized to choose smaller portion sizes. Three randomized experiments (2 in the lab and 1 in the field) established that individuals’ choice of full-sized food portions is reduced when they are given the opportunity to choose a half-sized version with a modest nonfood incentive. This substitution effect was robust across different nonfood incentives, foods, populations, and time. Experiment 1 established the effect with children, using inexpensive headphones as nonfood incentives. Experiment 2—a longitudinal study across multiple days—generalized this effect with adults, using the mere chance to win either gift cards or frequent flyer miles as nonfood incentives. Experiment 3 demonstrated the effect among actual restaurant customers who had originally planned to eat a full-sized portion, using the mere chance to win small amounts of money. Our investigation broadens the psychology of food portion choice from perceptual and social factors to motivational determinants. PMID:26372082

The scaling of urban surface water abundance and impairment with city size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steele, M. K.

2018-03-01

Urbanization alters surface water compared to nonurban landscapes, yet little is known regarding how basic aquatic ecosystem characteristics, such as the abundance and impairment of surface water, differ with population size or regional context. This study examined the abundance, scaling, and impairment of surface water by quantifying the stream length, water body area, and impaired stream length for 3520 cities in the United States with populations from 2500 to 18 million. Stream length, water body area, and impaired stream length were quantified using the National Hydrography Dataset and the EPA's 303(d) list. These metrics were scaled with population and city area using single and piecewise power-law models and related to biophysical factors (precipitation, topography) and land cover. Results show that abundance of stream length and water body area in cities actually increases with city area; however, the per person abundance decreases with population size. Relative to population, impaired stream length did not increase until city populations were > 25,000 people, then scaled linearly with population. Some variation in abundance and impairment was explained by biophysical context and land cover. Development intensity correlated with stream density and impairment; however, those relationships depended on the orientation of the land covers. When high intensity development occupied the local elevation highs (+ 15 m) and undeveloped land the elevation lows, the percentage of impaired streams was less than the opposite land cover orientation (- 15 m) or very flat land. These results show that surface water abundance and impairment across contiguous US cities are influenced by city size and by biophysical setting interacting with land cover intensity.

Extinction risk and eco-evolutionary dynamics in a variable environment with increasing frequency of extreme events.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone

2014-08-06

One of the most dramatic consequences of climate change will be the intensification and increased frequency of extreme events. I used numerical simulations to understand and predict the consequences of directional trend (i.e. mean state) and increased variability of a climate variable (e.g. temperature), increased probability of occurrence of point extreme events (e.g. floods), selection pressure and effect size of mutations on a quantitative trait determining individual fitness, as well as the their effects on the population and genetic dynamics of a population of moderate size. The interaction among climate trend, variability and probability of point extremes had a minor effect on risk of extinction, time to extinction and distribution of the trait after accounting for their independent effects. The survival chances of a population strongly and linearly decreased with increasing strength of selection, as well as with increasing climate trend and variability. Mutation amplitude had no effects on extinction risk, time to extinction or genetic adaptation to the new climate. Climate trend and strength of selection largely determined the shift of the mean phenotype in the population. The extinction or persistence of the populations in an 'extinction window' of 10 years was well predicted by a simple model including mean population size and mean genetic variance over a 10-year time frame preceding the 'extinction window', although genetic variance had a smaller role than population size in predicting contemporary risk of extinction. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Pollination and reproduction of an invasive plant inside and outside its ancestral range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petanidou, Theodora; Price, Mary V.; Bronstein, Judith L.; Kantsa, Aphrodite; Tscheulin, Thomas; Kariyat, Rupesh; Krigas, Nikos; Mescher, Mark C.; De Moraes, Consuelo M.; Waser, Nickolas M.

2018-05-01

Comparing traits of invasive species within and beyond their ancestral range may improve our understanding of processes that promote aggressive spread. Solanum elaeagnifolium (silverleaf nightshade) is a noxious weed in its ancestral range in North America and is invasive on other continents. We compared investment in flowers and ovules, pollination success, and fruit and seed set in populations from Arizona, USA ("AZ") and Greece ("GR"). In both countries, the populations we sampled varied in size and types of present-day disturbance. Stature of plants increased with population size in AZ samples whereas GR plants were uniformly tall. Taller plants produced more flowers, and GR plants produced more flowers for a given stature and allocated more ovules per flower. Similar functional groups of native bees pollinated in AZ and GR populations, but visits to flowers decreased with population size and we observed no visits in the largest GR populations. As a result, plants in large GR populations were pollen-limited, and estimates of fecundity were lower on average in GR populations despite the larger allocation to flowers and ovules. These differences between plants in our AZ and GR populations suggest promising directions for further study. It would be useful to sample S. elaeagnifolium in Mediterranean climates within the ancestral range (e.g., in California, USA), to study asexual spread via rhizomes, and to use common gardens and genetic studies to explore the basis of variation in allocation patterns and of relationships between visitation and fruit set.

Temporal dynamics of genetic variability in a mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) population.

PubMed

Ortego, Joaquín; Yannic, Glenn; Shafer, Aaron B A; Mainguy, Julien; Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Coltman, David W; Côté, Steeve D

2011-04-01

The association between population dynamics and genetic variability is of fundamental importance for both evolutionary and conservation biology. We combined long-term population monitoring and molecular genetic data from 123 offspring and their parents at 28 microsatellite loci to investigate changes in genetic diversity over 14 cohorts in a small and relatively isolated population of mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus) during a period of demographic increase. Offspring heterozygosity decreased while parental genetic similarity and inbreeding coefficients (F(IS) ) increased over the study period (1995-2008). Immigrants introduced three novel alleles into the population and matings between residents and immigrants produced more heterozygous offspring than local crosses, suggesting that immigration can increase population genetic variability. The population experienced genetic drift over the study period, reflected by a reduced allelic richness over time and an 'isolation-by-time' pattern of genetic structure. The temporal decline of individual genetic diversity despite increasing population size probably resulted from a combination of genetic drift due to small effective population size, inbreeding and insufficient counterbalancing by immigration. This study highlights the importance of long-term genetic monitoring to understand how demographic processes influence temporal changes of genetic diversity in long-lived organisms. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

How do reproductive skew and founder group size affect genetic diversity in reintroduced populations?

PubMed

Miller, K A; Nelson, N J; Smith, H G; Moore, J A

2009-09-01

Reduced genetic diversity can result in short-term decreases in fitness and reduced adaptive potential, which may lead to an increased extinction risk. Therefore, maintaining genetic variation is important for the short- and long-term success of reintroduced populations. Here, we evaluate how founder group size and variance in male reproductive success influence the long-term maintenance of genetic diversity after reintroduction. We used microsatellite data to quantify the loss of heterozygosity and allelic diversity in the founder groups from three reintroductions of tuatara (Sphenodon), the sole living representatives of the reptilian order Rhynchocephalia. We then estimated the maintenance of genetic diversity over 400 years (approximately 10 generations) using population viability analyses. Reproduction of tuatara is highly skewed, with as few as 30% of males mating across years. Predicted losses of heterozygosity over 10 generations were low (1-14%), and populations founded with more animals retained a greater proportion of the heterozygosity and allelic diversity of their source populations and founder groups. Greater male reproductive skew led to greater predicted losses of genetic diversity over 10 generations, but only accelerated the loss of genetic diversity at small population size (<250 animals). A reduction in reproductive skew at low density may facilitate the maintenance of genetic diversity in small reintroduced populations. If reproductive skew is high and density-independent, larger founder groups could be released to achieve genetic goals for management.

Density dependent interactions between VA mycorrhizal fungi and even-aged seedlings of two perennial Fabaceae species.

PubMed

Allsopp, N; Stock, W D

1992-08-01

The interaction of density and mycorrhizal effects on the growth, mineral nutrition and size distribution of seedlings of two perennial members of the Fabaceae was investigated in pot culture. Seedlings of Otholobium hirtum and Aspalathus linearis were grown at densities of 1, 4, 8 and 16 plants per 13-cm pot with or without vesicular-arbuscular (VA) mycorrhizal inoculum for 120 days. Plant mass, relative growth rates, height and leaf number all decreased with increasing plant density. This was ascribed to the decreasing availability of phosphorus per plant as density increased. O. hirtum was highly dependent on mycorrhizas for P uptake but both mycorrhizal and non-mycorrhizal A. linearis seedlings were able to extract soil P with equal ease. Plant size distribution as measured by the coefficient of variation (CV) of shoot mass was greater at higher densities. CVs of mycorrhizal O. hirtum plants were higher than those of non-mycorrhizal plants. CVs of the facultatively mycorrhizal A. linearis were similar for both mycorrhizal and non-mycorrhizal plants. Higher CVs are attributed to resource preemption by larger individuals. Individuals in populations with high CVs will probably survive stress which would result in the extinction of populations with low CVs. Mass of mycorrhizal plants of both species decreased more rapidly with increasing density than did non-mycorrhizal plant mass. It is concluded that the cost of being mycorrhizal increases as plant density increases, while the benefit decreases. The results suggest that mycorrhizas will influence density-dependent population processes of faculative and obligate mycorrhizal species.

Fishing degrades size structure of coral reef fish communities.

PubMed

Robinson, James P W; Williams, Ivor D; Edwards, Andrew M; McPherson, Jana; Yeager, Lauren; Vigliola, Laurent; Brainard, Russell E; Baum, Julia K

2017-03-01

Fishing pressure on coral reef ecosystems has been frequently linked to reductions of large fishes and reef fish biomass. Associated impacts on overall community structure are, however, less clear. In size-structured aquatic ecosystems, fishing impacts are commonly quantified using size spectra, which describe the distribution of individual body sizes within a community. We examined the size spectra and biomass of coral reef fish communities at 38 US-affiliated Pacific islands that ranged in human presence from near pristine to human population centers. Size spectra 'steepened' steadily with increasing human population and proximity to market due to a reduction in the relative biomass of large fishes and an increase in the dominance of small fishes. Reef fish biomass was substantially lower on inhabited islands than uninhabited ones, even at inhabited islands with the lowest levels of human presence. We found that on populated islands size spectra exponents decreased (analogous to size spectra steepening) linearly with declining biomass, whereas on uninhabited islands there was no relationship. Size spectra were steeper in regions of low sea surface temperature but were insensitive to variation in other environmental and geomorphic covariates. In contrast, reef fish biomass was highly sensitive to oceanographic conditions, being influenced by both oceanic productivity and sea surface temperature. Our results suggest that community size structure may be a more robust indicator than fish biomass to increasing human presence and that size spectra are reliable indicators of exploitation impacts across regions of different fish community compositions, environmental drivers, and fisheries types. Size-based approaches that link directly to functional properties of fish communities, and are relatively insensitive to abiotic variation across biogeographic regions, offer great potential for developing our understanding of fishing impacts in coral reef ecosystems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Body Size Evolution in Insular Speckled Rattlesnakes (Viperidae: Crotalus mitchellii)

PubMed Central

Meik, Jesse M.; Lawing, A. Michelle; Pires-daSilva, André

2010-01-01

Background Speckled rattlesnakes (Crotalus mitchellii) inhabit multiple islands off the coast of Baja California, Mexico. Two of the 14 known insular populations have been recognized as subspecies based primarily on body size divergence from putative mainland ancestral populations; however, a survey of body size variation from other islands occupied by these snakes has not been previously reported. We examined body size variation between island and mainland speckled rattlesnakes, and the relationship between body size and various island physical variables among 12 island populations. We also examined relative head size among giant, dwarfed, and mainland speckled rattlesnakes to determine whether allometric differences conformed to predictions of gape size (and indirectly body size) evolving in response to shifts in prey size. Methodology/Principal Findings Insular speckled rattlesnakes show considerable variation in body size when compared to mainland source subspecies. In addition to previously known instances of gigantism on Ángel de la Guarda and dwarfism on El Muerto, various degrees of body size decrease have occurred frequently in this taxon, with dwarfed rattlesnakes occurring mostly on small, recently isolated, land-bridge islands. Regression models using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) showed that mean SVL of insular populations was most strongly correlated with island area, suggesting the influence of selection for different body size optima for islands of different size. Allometric differences in head size of giant and dwarf rattlesnakes revealed patterns consistent with shifts to larger and smaller prey, respectively. Conclusions/Significance Our data provide the first example of a clear relationship between body size and island area in a squamate reptile species; among vertebrates this pattern has been previously documented in few insular mammals. This finding suggests that selection for body size is influenced by changes in community dynamics that are related to graded differences in area over what are otherwise similar bioclimatic conditions. We hypothesize that in this system shifts to larger prey, episodic saturation and depression of primary prey density, and predator release may have led to insular gigantism, and that shifts to smaller prey and increased reproductive efficiency in the presence of intense intraspecific competition may have led to insular dwarfism. PMID:20209105

Effects of diffusion on total biomass in simple metacommunities.

PubMed

Ruiz-Herrera, Alfonso; Torres, Pedro J

2018-06-14

This paper analyzes the effects of diffusion on the overall population size of the different species of a metacommunity. Depending on precise thresholds, we determine whether increasing the dispersal rate of a species has a positive or negative effect on population abundance. These thresholds depend on the interaction type of the species and the quality of the patches. The motivation for researching this issue is that spatial structure is a source of new biological insights with management interest. For instance, in a metacommunity of two competitors, the movement of a competitor could lead to a decrease of the overall population size of both species. On the other hand, we discuss when some classic results of metapopulation theory are preserved in metacommunities. Our results complement some recent experimental work by Zhang and collaborators. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variation of genetic diversity in a rapidly expanding population of the greater long-tailed hamster (Tscherskia triton) as revealed by microsatellites.

PubMed

Xu, Laixiang; Xue, Huiliang; Song, Mingjing; Zhao, Qinghua; Dong, Jingping; Liu, Juan; Guo, Yu; Xu, Tongqin; Cao, Xiaoping; Wang, Fusheng; Wang, Shuqing; Hao, Shushen; Yang, Hefang; Zhang, Zhibin

2013-01-01

Genetic diversity is essential for persistence of animal populations over both the short- and long-term. Previous studies suggest that genetic diversity may decrease with population decline due to genetic drift or inbreeding of small populations. For oscillating populations, there are some studies on the relationship between population density and genetic diversity, but these studies were based on short-term observation or in low-density phases. Evidence from rapidly expanding populations is lacking. In this study, genetic diversity of a rapidly expanding population of the Greater long-tailed hamsters during 1984-1990, in the Raoyang County of the North China Plain was studied using DNA microsatellite markers. Results show that genetic diversity was positively correlated with population density (as measured by % trap success), and the increase in population density was correlated with a decrease of genetic differentiation between the sub-population A and B. The genetic diversity tended to be higher in spring than in autumn. Variation in population density and genetic diversity are consistent between sub-population A and B. Such results suggest that dispersal is density- and season-dependent in a rapidly expanding population of the Greater long-tailed hamster. For typically solitary species, increasing population density can increase intra-specific attack, which is a driving force for dispersal. This situation is counterbalanced by decreasing population density caused by genetic drift or inbreeding as the result of small population size. Season is a major factor influencing population density and genetic diversity. Meanwhile, roads, used to be considered as geographical isolation, have less effect on genetic differentiation in a rapidly expanding population. Evidences suggest that gene flow (Nm) is positively correlated with population density, and it is significant higher in spring than that in autumn.

Colony Size Affects the Efficacy of Bait Containing Chlorfluazuron Against the Fungus-Growing Termite Macrotermes gilvus (Blattodea: Termitidae).

PubMed

Lee, Ching-Chen; Neoh, Kok-Boon; Lee, Chow-Yang

2014-12-01

The efficacy of chitin synthesis inhibitors (CSIs) against fungus-growing termites is known to vary. In this study, 0.1% chlorfluazuron (CFZ) cellulose bait was tested against medium and large field colonies of Macrotermes gilvus (Hagen). The termite mounds were dissected to determine the health of the colony. Individual termites (i.e., workers and larvae) and fungus combs were subjected to gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analysis to detect the presence of CFZ. In this study, 540.0 ± 25.8 g (or equivalent to 540.0 ± 25.8 mg active ingredient) and 680.0 ± 49.0 g (680.0 ± 49.0 mg active ingredient) of bait matrix were removed by the medium- and large-sized colonies, respectively, after baiting. All treated medium-sized colonies were moribund. The dead termites were scattered in the mound, larvae were absent, population size had decreased by 90%, and the queens appeared unhealthy. In contrast, no or limited effects were found in large-sized colonies. Only trace amounts of CFZ were detected in workers, larvae, and fungus combs, and the population of large-sized colonies had declined by only up to 40%. This might be owing to the presence of large amount of basidiomycete fungus and a drastic decrease of CFZ content per unit fungus comb (a main food source of larvae) in the large-sized colonies, and hence reduced the toxic effect and longer time is required to accumulate the lethal dose in larvae. Nevertheless, we do not deny the possibility of CSI bait eliminating or suppressing the higher termite if the test colonies could pick up adequate lethal dose by installing more bait stations and prolonging the baiting period. © 2014 Entomological Society of America.

Resource Allocation and Seed Size Selection in Perennial Plants under Pollen Limitation.

PubMed

Huang, Qiaoqiao; Burd, Martin; Fan, Zhiwei

2017-09-01

Pollen limitation may affect resource allocation patterns in plants, but its role in the selection of seed size is not known. Using an evolutionarily stable strategy model of resource allocation in perennial iteroparous plants, we show that under density-independent population growth, pollen limitation (i.e., a reduction in ovule fertilization rate) should increase the optimal seed size. At any level of pollen limitation (including none), the optimal seed size maximizes the ratio of juvenile survival rate to the resource investment needed to produce one seed (including both ovule production and seed provisioning); that is, the optimum maximizes the fitness effect per unit cost. Seed investment may affect allocation to postbreeding adult survival. In our model, pollen limitation increases individual seed size but decreases overall reproductive allocation, so that pollen limitation should also increase the optimal allocation to postbreeding adult survival. Under density-dependent population growth, the optimal seed size is inversely proportional to ovule fertilization rate. However, pollen limitation does not affect the optimal allocation to postbreeding adult survival and ovule production. These results highlight the importance of allocation trade-offs in the effect pollen limitation has on the ecology and evolution of seed size and postbreeding adult survival in perennial plants.

Spatial distribution of limited resources and local density regulation in juvenile Atlantic salmon.

PubMed

Finstad, Anders G; Einum, Sigurd; Ugedal, Ola; Forseth, Torbjørn

2009-01-01

1. Spatial heterogeneity of resources may influence competition among individuals and thus have a fundamental role in shaping population dynamics and carrying capacity. In the present study, we identify shelter opportunities as a limiting resource for juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). Experimental and field studies are combined in order to demonstrate how the spatial distribution of shelters may influence population dynamics on both within and among population scales. 2. In closed experimental streams, fish performance scaled negatively with decreasing shelter availability and increasing densities. In contrast, the fish in open stream channels dispersed according to shelter availability and performance of fish remaining in the streams did not depend on initial density or shelters. 3. The field study confirmed that spatial variation in densities of 1-year-old juveniles was governed both by initial recruit density and shelter availability. Strength of density-dependent population regulation, measured as carrying capacity, increased with decreasing number of shelters. 4. Nine rivers were surveyed for spatial variation in shelter availability and increased shelter heterogeneity tended to decrease maximum observed population size (measured using catch statistics of adult salmon as a proxy). 5. Our studies highlight the importance of small-scale within-population spatial structure in population dynamics and demonstrate that not only the absolute amount of limiting resources but also their spatial arrangement can be an important factor influencing population carrying capacity.

Populational divergence in the impact of three nitrogenous compounds and their combination on larvae of the frog Pelophylax perezi (Seoane, 1885).

PubMed

Egea-Serrano, Andrés; Tejedo, Miguel; Torralva, Mar

2009-08-01

Pollution by nitrogenous compounds is a putative stressful factor that may be causally linked to the decline of amphibians. One way to understand the potentially detrimental consequences of eutrophication on amphibian populations is to investigate variation among populations differing in exposure to nitrogen, this variation potentially indicating evolutionary potential to cope with this stressor. We have examined the effect of nitrogenous compounds (NH(4)(+); NO(2)(-); NO(3)(-), both alone and in combination) on fitness-related larval traits in four populations of Pelophylax perezi naturally exposed to different degrees of eutrophication. The results indicate that both survival and larval final size decrease at higher concentrations of these compounds, either singly or in combination. Additionally, the nitrogenous compounds were more lethal and larval food consumption and final mass were significantly reduced when they were exposed to combinations of compounds. Populations inhabiting highly polluted aquatic environments tolerated higher levels of nitrogenous compounds and showed higher survival rates and larger final size than the populations of less polluted environments, suggesting the potential to adapt to increased nitrogenous contamination in this species.

Population Structure, Genetic Diversity, Effective Population Size, Demographic History and Regional Connectivity Patterns of the Endangered Dusky Grouper, Epinephelus marginatus (Teleostei: Serranidae), within Malta’s Fisheries Management Zone

PubMed Central

Vella, Adriana

2016-01-01

The objective of this study is to describe the genetic population structure and demographic history of the endangered marine fish, Epinephelus marginatus, within Malta’s Fisheries Management Zone for the purpose of localised conservation planning. Epinephelus marginatus is a long-lived, sedentary, reef-associated protogynous hermaphrodite with high commercial and recreational value that is at risk of extinction throughout its global distribution. Based on global trends, population substructuring and gaps in local knowledge this has led to an increased interest in evaluation of local stock. Assessment of Maltese demography was based on historical and contemporary catch landings data whilst genetic population structure and regional connectivity patterns were evaluated by examining 175 individuals collected within the central Mediterranean region between 2002 and 2009 using 14 nuclear microsatellite loci. Demographic stock assessment of Maltese E. marginatus’ revealed a 99% decline in catch landings between 1947 and 2009 within the Fisheries Management Zone. A contemporary modest mean size was observed, 3 ± 3 kg, where approximately 17% of the population was juvenile, 68% female/sex-changing and 15% were male with a male-to-female sex ratio of 1:5. Genetic analysis describes the overall population of E. marginatus’ within the Fisheries Management Zone as decreasing in size (ƟH = 2.2), which has gone through a significant size reduction in the past (M = 0.41) and consequently shows signs of moderate inbreeding (FIS = 0.10, p < 0.001) with an estimated effective population size of 130 individuals. Results of spatially explicit Bayesian genetic cluster analysis detected two geographically distinct subpopulations within Malta’s Fisheries Management Zone and that they are connected to a larger network of E. marginatus’ within the Sicily Channel. Results suggest conservation management should be designed to reflect E. marginatus’ within Malta’s Fisheries Management Zone as two management units. PMID:27463811

Genetic Allee effects and their interaction with ecological Allee effects.

PubMed

Wittmann, Meike J; Stuis, Hanna; Metzler, Dirk

2018-01-01

It is now widely accepted that genetic processes such as inbreeding depression and loss of genetic variation can increase the extinction risk of small populations. However, it is generally unclear whether extinction risk from genetic causes gradually increases with decreasing population size or whether there is a sharp transition around a specific threshold population size. In the ecological literature, such threshold phenomena are called 'strong Allee effects' and they can arise for example from mate limitation in small populations. In this study, we aim to (i) develop a meaningful notion of a 'strong genetic Allee effect', (ii) explore whether and under what conditions such an effect can arise from inbreeding depression due to recessive deleterious mutations, and (iii) quantify the interaction of potential genetic Allee effects with the well-known mate-finding Allee effect. We define a strong genetic Allee effect as a genetic process that causes a population's survival probability to be a sigmoid function of its initial size. The inflection point of this function defines the critical population size. To characterize survival-probability curves, we develop and analyse simple stochastic models for the ecology and genetics of small populations. Our results indicate that inbreeding depression can indeed cause a strong genetic Allee effect, but only if individuals carry sufficiently many deleterious mutations (lethal equivalents). Populations suffering from a genetic Allee effect often first grow, then decline as inbreeding depression sets in and then potentially recover as deleterious mutations are purged. Critical population sizes of ecological and genetic Allee effects appear to be often additive, but even superadditive interactions are possible. Many published estimates for the number of lethal equivalents in birds and mammals fall in the parameter range where strong genetic Allee effects are expected. Unfortunately, extinction risk due to genetic Allee effects can easily be underestimated as populations with genetic problems often grow initially, but then crash later. Also interactions between ecological and genetic Allee effects can be strong and should not be neglected when assessing the viability of endangered or introduced populations. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Genetic diversity of Morato's Digger Toad, Proceratophrys moratoi: spatial structure, gene flow, effective size and the need for differential management strategies of populations

PubMed Central

Arruda, Mauricio P.; Costa, William P.; Recco-Pimentel, Shirlei M.

2017-01-01

Abstract The Morato's Digger Toad, Proceratophrys moratoi, is a critically endangered toad species with a marked population decline in southern Brazilian Cerrado. Despite this, new populations are being discovered, primarily in the northern part of the distribution range, which raises a number of questions with regard to the conservation status of the species. The present study analyzed the genetic diversity of the species based on microsatellite markers. Our findings permitted the identification of two distinct management units. We found profound genetic structuring between the southern populations, on the left margin of the Tietê River, and all other populations. A marked reduction was observed in the contemporary gene flow among the central populations that are most affected by anthropogenic impacts, such as extensive sugar cane plantations, which presumably decreases habitat connectivity. The results indicated reduced diversity in the southern populations which, combined with a smaller effective population size, may make these populations more susceptible to extinction. We recommend the reclassification of P. moratoi as vulnerable and the establishment of a special protection program for the southern populations. Our results provide important insights about the local extinction of southern populations of this toad. PMID:28590500

Individual-based modelling of population growth and diffusion in discrete time.

PubMed

Tkachenko, Natalie; Weissmann, John D; Petersen, Wesley P; Lake, George; Zollikofer, Christoph P E; Callegari, Simone

2017-01-01

Individual-based models (IBMs) of human populations capture spatio-temporal dynamics using rules that govern the birth, behavior, and death of individuals. We explore a stochastic IBM of logistic growth-diffusion with constant time steps and independent, simultaneous actions of birth, death, and movement that approaches the Fisher-Kolmogorov model in the continuum limit. This model is well-suited to parallelization on high-performance computers. We explore its emergent properties with analytical approximations and numerical simulations in parameter ranges relevant to human population dynamics and ecology, and reproduce continuous-time results in the limit of small transition probabilities. Our model prediction indicates that the population density and dispersal speed are affected by fluctuations in the number of individuals. The discrete-time model displays novel properties owing to the binomial character of the fluctuations: in certain regimes of the growth model, a decrease in time step size drives the system away from the continuum limit. These effects are especially important at local population sizes of <50 individuals, which largely correspond to group sizes of hunter-gatherers. As an application scenario, we model the late Pleistocene dispersal of Homo sapiens into the Americas, and discuss the agreement of model-based estimates of first-arrival dates with archaeological dates in dependence of IBM model parameter settings.

[Geographic Spread of Influenza under the Influence of Community Population Size, Which Differed from That of Measles and Rubella].

PubMed

Yoshikura, Hiroshi

2018-05-24

The influenza season is defined as the period from week 36 of the year to week 20 of the subsequent year in this report. The population size of prefectures (x) and number of patients per prefecture (y) were initially uncorrelated, but a correlation developed as the season advanced. The correlation with correlation coefficient >0.7 emerged increasingly earlier over time; it developed in week 5 of the subsequent year in 2001/2002, but in week 47 of the same year in 2014/2015. Once x and y were correlated, plots of y on the vertical axis against x on the horizontal axis resulted in a straight line, y = Cx s , where s was the slope of the plot and C was a constant. The slope was high (s>1) initially, but decreased (s<1) later, indicating that influenza first spread to populated prefectures and then nationwide, involving less populated prefectures. This spread pattern was the same for the seasonal influenza and AH1pdm2009, although the progression of the latter was much faster. For measles and rubella epidemics, the number of patients per prefecture was proportional to the square of the population size from the start to the end of the season.

On population of hazardous celestial bodies in the near-Earth space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shustov, B. M.; Naroenkov, S. A.; Efremova, E. V.

2017-01-01

In recent years, following the Chelyabinsk event of February 15, 2013, the lower size limit for presumably dangerous near-Earth objects has been decreased manyfold (essentially, from 140 m to 10 m). This has drawn an increased attention to the properties of the population of decameter-sized bodies, in particular, the bodies that approach the Earth from the sunward side (daytime sky). The current paper is concerned with various properties of this population. The properties of the ensemble are analyzed using both observational data from other authors and theoretical estimates obtained by cloning virtual bodies. This question is of great practical importance, as the means for detecting such bodies (for example, the SODA project) need to be developed with consideration for the requirements imposed by the population properties. We have shown that the average rate of entering near-Earth space (NES), i.e., at distances less than 1 million km from the Earth, for decameter-sized and larger bodies from the daytime sky (elongation values of entry points less than 90°) is approximately 620 objects per year for elongation angles of the detection point <90° and approximately 220 objects per year for elongation angles of the detection point <45°.

Persistence of butterfly populations in fragmented habitats along urban density gradients: motility helps

PubMed Central

Rochat, E; Manel, S; Deschamps-Cottin, M; Widmer, I; Joost, S

2017-01-01

In a simulation study of genotypes conducted over 100 generations for more than 1600 butterfly’s individuals, we evaluate how the increase of anthropogenic fragmentation and reduction of habitat size along urbanisation gradients (from 7 to 59% of impervious land cover) influences genetic diversity and population persistence in butterfly species. We show that in areas characterised by a high urbanisation rate (>56% impervious land cover), a large decrease of both genetic diversity (loss of 60–80% of initial observed heterozygosity) and population size (loss of 70–90% of individuals) is observed over time. This is confirmed by empirical data available for the mobile butterfly species Pieris rapae in a subpart of the study area. Comparing simulated data for P. rapae with its normal dispersal ability and with a reduced dispersal ability, we also show that a higher dispersal ability can be an advantage to survive in an urban or highly fragmented environment. The results obtained here suggest that it is of high importance to account for population persistence, and confirm that it is crucial to maintain habitat size and connectivity in the context of land-use planning. PMID:28792492

Population structure of Uncancylus concentricus (d'Orbigny, 1835) (Ancylidae, Pulmonata, Basommatophora) in the Multiple Use Reserve Martín García Island, Upper Río de la Plata, Argentina.

PubMed

Martín, S M; Díaz, A C

2012-02-01

The present work analyzes the population dynamics of Uncancylus concentricus in natural conditions in the northeastern coastal area of the Multiple Use Natural Reserve Isla Martín García (Beach of Basural), Buenos Aires, Argentina. Martín García Island is located in the Upper Río de La Plata, to the south of the mouth of the Uruguay River (34° 11' 25" S and 58° 15'38" W). Monthly collections were made from August 2005 to December 2006. The size frequency of the U. concentricus population throughout the sampling period ranges from 1.2 to 8.3 m. The changes in the size frequencies throughout the months surveyed indicate a variable distribution pattern because of the increase and decrease in water flow, but we observed a peak in the frequency of individuals within the size range 3.5 to 4.5 mm in the population. It can be concluded that this species lives for at least a year in the wild since the juveniles are highly abundant in spring and summer.

Effects of long-term changes in the benthic community on yellow perch in Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.; Diana, James S.; Haas, Robert C.

2000-01-01

Abundance, mortality, age and growth, food habits, and energetics of a yellow perch Perca flavescens population were investigated in eutrophic Saginaw Bay, Lake Huron during May to October, 1986 to 1988, and compared population characteristics with historical data from times when eutrophic conditions were less severe. During 1986 to 1988, yellow perch were abundant, but grew slowly and experienced high natural mortality. A size threshold was present at 150 to 180 mm beyond which few individuals survived, and sex ratios became biased toward males. An energetic model suggested that yellow perch were food limited; as they increased in size they spent a greater proportion of the growing season near maintenance ration. Low feeding rates were a consequence of subsistence on small chironomid larvae. Piscivory provided little energetic relief. Historical data suggested that availability of large benthic prey such as nymphs of the burrowing mayfly Hexagenia was important to yellow perch. Yellow perch formerly consumed Hexagenia, but mayflies were extirpated from Saginaw Bay during 1953 to 1965, and never recovered. When Hexagenia was present, yellow perch growth was moderate to fast depending on population size, size thresholds were not present, and yellow perch reached large size and older age despite moderate to high fishing mortality. Decreases in yellow perch growth rates during 1952 to 1955 coincided with extirpation of Hexagenia. Fast growth of yellow perch did occur after Hexagenia became extirpated, but only when fishing mortality was high, population size was small, and some large benthic invertebrates remained. Eutrophication of Saginaw Bay appeared to affect yellow perch by changing species composition and reducing size structure of the benthic community.

Accounting for sampling error when inferring population synchrony from time-series data: a Bayesian state-space modelling approach with applications.

PubMed

Santin-Janin, Hugues; Hugueny, Bernard; Aubry, Philippe; Fouchet, David; Gimenez, Olivier; Pontier, Dominique

2014-01-01

Data collected to inform time variations in natural population size are tainted by sampling error. Ignoring sampling error in population dynamics models induces bias in parameter estimators, e.g., density-dependence. In particular, when sampling errors are independent among populations, the classical estimator of the synchrony strength (zero-lag correlation) is biased downward. However, this bias is rarely taken into account in synchrony studies although it may lead to overemphasizing the role of intrinsic factors (e.g., dispersal) with respect to extrinsic factors (the Moran effect) in generating population synchrony as well as to underestimating the extinction risk of a metapopulation. The aim of this paper was first to illustrate the extent of the bias that can be encountered in empirical studies when sampling error is neglected. Second, we presented a space-state modelling approach that explicitly accounts for sampling error when quantifying population synchrony. Third, we exemplify our approach with datasets for which sampling variance (i) has been previously estimated, and (ii) has to be jointly estimated with population synchrony. Finally, we compared our results to those of a standard approach neglecting sampling variance. We showed that ignoring sampling variance can mask a synchrony pattern whatever its true value and that the common practice of averaging few replicates of population size estimates poorly performed at decreasing the bias of the classical estimator of the synchrony strength. The state-space model used in this study provides a flexible way of accurately quantifying the strength of synchrony patterns from most population size data encountered in field studies, including over-dispersed count data. We provided a user-friendly R-program and a tutorial example to encourage further studies aiming at quantifying the strength of population synchrony to account for uncertainty in population size estimates.

Accounting for Sampling Error When Inferring Population Synchrony from Time-Series Data: A Bayesian State-Space Modelling Approach with Applications

PubMed Central

Santin-Janin, Hugues; Hugueny, Bernard; Aubry, Philippe; Fouchet, David; Gimenez, Olivier; Pontier, Dominique

2014-01-01

Background Data collected to inform time variations in natural population size are tainted by sampling error. Ignoring sampling error in population dynamics models induces bias in parameter estimators, e.g., density-dependence. In particular, when sampling errors are independent among populations, the classical estimator of the synchrony strength (zero-lag correlation) is biased downward. However, this bias is rarely taken into account in synchrony studies although it may lead to overemphasizing the role of intrinsic factors (e.g., dispersal) with respect to extrinsic factors (the Moran effect) in generating population synchrony as well as to underestimating the extinction risk of a metapopulation. Methodology/Principal findings The aim of this paper was first to illustrate the extent of the bias that can be encountered in empirical studies when sampling error is neglected. Second, we presented a space-state modelling approach that explicitly accounts for sampling error when quantifying population synchrony. Third, we exemplify our approach with datasets for which sampling variance (i) has been previously estimated, and (ii) has to be jointly estimated with population synchrony. Finally, we compared our results to those of a standard approach neglecting sampling variance. We showed that ignoring sampling variance can mask a synchrony pattern whatever its true value and that the common practice of averaging few replicates of population size estimates poorly performed at decreasing the bias of the classical estimator of the synchrony strength. Conclusion/Significance The state-space model used in this study provides a flexible way of accurately quantifying the strength of synchrony patterns from most population size data encountered in field studies, including over-dispersed count data. We provided a user-friendly R-program and a tutorial example to encourage further studies aiming at quantifying the strength of population synchrony to account for uncertainty in population size estimates. PMID:24489839

Habitable pore space and survival ofRhizobium leguminosarum biovartrifolii introduced into soil.

PubMed

Postma, J; van Veen, J A

1990-03-01

The hypothesis that the population size of introduced bacteria is affected by habitable pore space was studied by varying moisture content and bulk density in sterilized, as well as in natural loamy sand and silt loam. The soils were inoculated withRhizobium leguminosarum biovartrifolii and established and maintained at soil water potentials between -5 and -20 kPa (pF 1.7 and 2.3). Rhizobial cells were enumerated when population sizes were expected to be more or less stable. In sterilized soils, the rhizobial numbers were not affected or decreased only slightly when water potentials increased from -20 to -5 kPa. In natural soils, the decrease in rhizobial numbers with increasing water potentials was more pronounced. Bulk density had only minor effects on the population sizes of rhizobia or total bacteria. Soil water retention curves of both soils were used to calculate volume and surface area of pores from different diameter classes, and an estimation of the habitable pore space was made. Combining these values of the theoretical habitable pore space with the measured rhizobial numbers showed that only 0.37 and 0.44% of the habitable pore space was occupied in the sterilized loamy sand and silt loam, respectively. The situation in natural soil is more complicated, since a whole variety of microorganisms is present. Nevertheless, it was suggested that, in general, pore space does not limit proliferation and growth of soil microorganisms.

Projected impacts of climate change on habitat availability for an endangered parakeet.

PubMed

Hermes, Claudia; Keller, Klaus; Nicholas, Robert E; Segelbacher, Gernot; Schaefer, H Martin

2018-01-01

In tropical montane cloud forests, climate change can cause upslope shifts in the distribution ranges of species, leading to reductions in distributional range. Endemic species with small ranges are particularly vulnerable to such decreases in range size, as the population size may be reduced significantly. To ensure the survival of cloud forest species in the long term, it is crucial to quantify potential future shifts in their distribution ranges and the related changes in habitat availability in order to assure the long-term effectiveness of conservation measures. In this study, we assessed the influence of climate change on the availability of forested habitat for the endemic El Oro parakeet. We investigated the future range shift by modelling the climatic niche of the El Oro parakeets and projecting it to four different climate change scenarios. Depending on the intensity of climate change, the El Oro parakeets shift their range between 500 and 1700 m uphill by the year 2100. On average, the shift is accompanied by a reduction in range size to 15% and a reduction in forested habitat to only 10% of the original extent. Additionally, the connectivity between populations in different areas is decreasing in higher altitudes. To prevent a population decline due to habitat loss following an upslope range shift, it will be necessary to restore habitat across a large elevational span in order to allow for movement of El Oro parakeets into higher altitudes.

Projected impacts of climate change on habitat availability for an endangered parakeet

PubMed Central

Keller, Klaus; Nicholas, Robert E.; Segelbacher, Gernot; Schaefer, H. Martin

2018-01-01

In tropical montane cloud forests, climate change can cause upslope shifts in the distribution ranges of species, leading to reductions in distributional range. Endemic species with small ranges are particularly vulnerable to such decreases in range size, as the population size may be reduced significantly. To ensure the survival of cloud forest species in the long term, it is crucial to quantify potential future shifts in their distribution ranges and the related changes in habitat availability in order to assure the long-term effectiveness of conservation measures. In this study, we assessed the influence of climate change on the availability of forested habitat for the endemic El Oro parakeet. We investigated the future range shift by modelling the climatic niche of the El Oro parakeets and projecting it to four different climate change scenarios. Depending on the intensity of climate change, the El Oro parakeets shift their range between 500 and 1700 m uphill by the year 2100. On average, the shift is accompanied by a reduction in range size to 15% and a reduction in forested habitat to only 10% of the original extent. Additionally, the connectivity between populations in different areas is decreasing in higher altitudes. To prevent a population decline due to habitat loss following an upslope range shift, it will be necessary to restore habitat across a large elevational span in order to allow for movement of El Oro parakeets into higher altitudes. PMID:29364949

Coalescence of repelling colloidal droplets: a route to monodisperse populations.

PubMed

Roger, Kevin; Botet, Robert; Cabane, Bernard

2013-05-14

Populations of droplets or particles dispersed in a liquid may evolve through Brownian collisions, aggregation, and coalescence. We have found a set of conditions under which these populations evolve spontaneously toward a narrow size distribution. The experimental system consists of poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) nanodroplets dispersed in a solvent (acetone) + nonsolvent (water) mixture. These droplets carry electrical charges, located on the ionic end groups of the macromolecules. We used time-resolved small angle X-ray scattering to determine their size distribution. We find that the droplets grow through coalescence events: the average radius (R) increases logarithmically with elapsed time while the relative width σR/(R) of the distribution decreases as the inverse square root of (R). We interpret this evolution as resulting from coalescence events that are hindered by ionic repulsions between droplets. We generalize this evolution through a simulation of the Smoluchowski kinetic equation, with a kernel that takes into account the interactions between droplets. In the case of vanishing or attractive interactions, all droplet encounters lead to coalescence. The corresponding kernel leads to the well-known "self-preserving" particle distribution of the coalescence process, where σR/(R) increases to a plateau value. However, for droplets that interact through long-range ionic repulsions, "large + small" droplet encounters are more successful at coalescence than "large + large" encounters. We show that the corresponding kernel leads to a particular scaling of the droplet-size distribution-known as the "second-scaling law" in the theory of critical phenomena, where σR/(R) decreases as 1/√(R) and becomes independent of the initial distribution. We argue that this scaling explains the narrow size distributions of colloidal dispersions that have been synthesized through aggregation processes.

Shifting latitudinal clines in avian body size correlate with global warming in Australian passerines.

PubMed

Gardner, Janet L; Heinsohn, Robert; Joseph, Leo

2009-11-07

Intraspecific latitudinal clines in the body size of terrestrial vertebrates, where members of the same species are larger at higher latitudes, are widely interpreted as evidence for natural selection and adaptation to local climate. These clines are predicted to shift in response to climate change. We used museum specimens to measure changes in the body size of eight passerine bird species from south-eastern Australia over approximately the last 100 years. Four species showed significant decreases in body size (1.8-3.6% of wing length) and a shift in latitudinal cline over that period, and a meta-analysis demonstrated a consistent trend across all eight species. Southern high-latitude populations now display the body sizes typical of more northern populations pre-1950, equivalent to a 7 degrees shift in latitude. Using ptilochronology, we found no evidence that these morphological changes were a plastic response to changes in nutrition, a likely non-genetic mechanism for the pattern observed. Our results demonstrate a generalized response by eight avian species to some major environmental change over the last 100 years or so, probably global warming.

Climate change: is the dark Soay sheep endangered?

PubMed Central

Maloney, Shane K.; Fuller, Andrea; Mitchell, Duncan

2009-01-01

It was recently reported that the proportion of dark-coloured Soay sheep (Ovis aries) in the Hebrides has decreased, despite the fact that dark sheep tend to be larger than lighter sheep, and there exists a selective advantage to large body size. It was concluded that an apparent genetic linkage between loci for the coat colour polymorphism and loci with antagonistic effects on body size explained the decrease. Those results explain why the proportion of dark animals is not increasing, but not why it is decreasing. Between 1985 and 2005 there was a significant increase in mean ambient temperature near the islands. We suggest that, while in the past a dark coat has offset the metabolic costs of thermoregulation by absorbing solar radiation, the selective advantage of a dark coat may be waning as the climate warms in the North Atlantic. In parallel, Bergman's rule may be operating, reducing the selective advantage of large body size in the cold. Either or both of these mechanisms can explain the decrease in the proportion of dark-coloured larger sheep in this population in which smaller (and light-coloured) sheep should be favoured by their lower gross energy demand. If environmental effects are the cause of the decline, then we can expect the proportion of dark-coloured Soay sheep to decrease further. PMID:19625302

Warm water temperatures and shifts in seasonality increase trout recruitment but only moderately decrease adult size in western North American tailwaters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dibble, Kimberly L.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Kennedy, Theodore A.

2018-01-01

Dams throughout western North America have altered thermal regimes in rivers, creating cold, clear “tailwaters” in which trout populations thrive. Ongoing drought in the region has led to highly publicized reductions in reservoir storage and raised concerns about potential reductions in downstream flows. Large changes in riverine thermal regimes may also occur as reservoir water levels drop, yet this potential impact has received far less attention. We analyzed historic water temperature and fish population data to anticipate how trout may respond to future changes in the magnitude and seasonality of river temperatures. We found that summer temperatures were inversely related to reservoir water level, with warm temperatures associated with reduced storage and with dams operated as run-of-river units. Variation in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) recruitment was linked to water temperature variation, with a 5-fold increase in recruitment occurring at peak summer temperatures (18 °C vs. 7 °C) and a 2.5-fold increase in recruitment when peak temperatures occurred in summer rather than fall. Conversely, adult trout size was only moderately related to temperature. Rainbow and brown trout (Salmo trutta) size decreased by ~24 mm and 20 mm, respectively, as mean annual and peak summer temperatures increased. Further, rainbow trout size decreased by ~29 mm with an earlier onset of cold winter temperatures. While increased recruitment may be the more likely outcome of a warmer and drier climate, density-dependent growth constraints could exacerbate temperature-dependent growth reductions. As such, managers may consider implementing flows to reduce recruitment or altering infrastructure to maintain coldwater reservoir releases.

Validation of abundance estimates from mark–recapture and removal techniques for rainbow trout captured by electrofishing in small streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenberger, Amanda E.; Dunham, Jason B.

2005-01-01

Estimation of fish abundance in streams using the removal model or the Lincoln - Peterson mark - recapture model is a common practice in fisheries. These models produce misleading results if their assumptions are violated. We evaluated the assumptions of these two models via electrofishing of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss in central Idaho streams. For one-, two-, three-, and four-pass sampling effort in closed sites, we evaluated the influences of fish size and habitat characteristics on sampling efficiency and the accuracy of removal abundance estimates. We also examined the use of models to generate unbiased estimates of fish abundance through adjustment of total catch or biased removal estimates. Our results suggested that the assumptions of the mark - recapture model were satisfied and that abundance estimates based on this approach were unbiased. In contrast, the removal model assumptions were not met. Decreasing sampling efficiencies over removal passes resulted in underestimated population sizes and overestimates of sampling efficiency. This bias decreased, but was not eliminated, with increased sampling effort. Biased removal estimates based on different levels of effort were highly correlated with each other but were less correlated with unbiased mark - recapture estimates. Stream size decreased sampling efficiency, and stream size and instream wood increased the negative bias of removal estimates. We found that reliable estimates of population abundance could be obtained from models of sampling efficiency for different levels of effort. Validation of abundance estimates requires extra attention to routine sampling considerations but can help fisheries biologists avoid pitfalls associated with biased data and facilitate standardized comparisons among studies that employ different sampling methods.

Surface degassing and modifications to vesicle size distributions in active basalt flows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cashman, K.V.; Mangan, M.T.; Newman, S.

1994-01-01

The character of the vesicle population in lava flows includes several measurable parameters that may provide important constraints on lava flow dynamics and rheology. Interpretation of vesicle size distributions (VSDs), however, requires an understanding of vesiculation processes in feeder conduits, and of post-eruption modifications to VSDs during transport and emplacement. To this end we collected samples from active basalt flows at Kilauea Volcano: (1) near the effusive Kupaianaha vent; (2) through skylights in the approximately isothermal Wahaula and Kamoamoa tube systems transporting lava to the coast; (3) from surface breakouts at different locations along the lava tubes; and (4) from different locations in a single breakout from a lava tube 1 km from the 51 vent at Pu'u 'O'o. Near-vent samples are characterized by VSDs that show exponentially decreasing numbers of vesicles with increasing vesicle size. These size distributions suggest that nucleation and growth of bubbles were continuous during ascent in the conduit, with minor associated bubble coalescence resulting from differential bubble rise. The entire vesicle population can be attributed to shallow exsolution of H2O-dominated gases at rates consistent with those predicted by simple diffusion models. Measurements of H2O, CO2 and S in the matrix glass show that the melt equilibrated rapidly at atmospheric pressure. Down-tube samples maintain similar VSD forms but show a progressive decrease in both overall vesicularity and mean vesicle size. We attribute this change to open system, "passive" rise and escape of larger bubbles to the surface. Such gas loss from the tube system results in the output of 1.2 ?? 106 g/day SO2, an output representing an addition of approximately 1% to overall volatile budget calculations. A steady increase in bubble number density with downstream distance is best explained by continued bubble nucleation at rates of 7-8/cm3s. Rates are ???25% of those estimated from the vent samples, and thus represent volatile supersaturations considerably less than those of the conduit. We note also that the small total volume represented by this new bubble population does not: (1) measurably deplete the melt in volatiles; or (2) make up for the overall vesicularity decrease resulting from the loss of larger bubbles. Surface breakout samples have distinctive VSDs characterized by an extreme depletion in the small vesicle population. This results in samples with much lower number densities and larger mean vesicle sizes than corresponding tube samples. Similar VSD patterns have been observed in solidified lava flows and are interpreted to result from either static (wall rupture) or dynamic (bubble rise and capture) coalescence. Through comparison with vent and tube vesicle populations, we suggest that, in addition to coalescence, the observed vesicle populations in the breakout samples have experienced a rapid loss of small vesicles consistent with 'ripening' of the VSD resulting from interbubble diffusion of volatiles. Confinement of ripening features to surface flows suggests that the thin skin that forms on surface breakouts may play a role in the observed VSD modification. ?? 1994.

A Mixed-Method Approach for Quantifying Illegal Fishing and Its Impact on an Endangered Fish Species.

PubMed

Free, Christopher M; Jensen, Olaf P; Mendsaikhan, Bud

2015-01-01

Illegal harvest is recognized as a widespread problem in natural resource management. The use of multiple methods for quantifying illegal harvest has been widely recommended yet infrequently applied. We used a mixed-method approach to evaluate the extent, character, and motivations of illegal gillnet fishing in Lake Hovsgol National Park, Mongolia and its impact on the lake's fish populations, especially that of the endangered endemic Hovsgol grayling (Thymallus nigrescens). Surveys for derelict fishing gear indicate that gillnet fishing is widespread and increasing and that fishers generally use 3-4 cm mesh gillnet. Interviews with resident herders and park rangers suggest that many residents fish for subsistence during the spring grayling spawning migration and that some residents fish commercially year-round. Interviewed herders and rangers generally agree that fish population sizes are decreasing but are divided on the causes and solutions. Biological monitoring indicates that the gillnet mesh sizes used by fishers efficiently target Hovsgol grayling. Of the five species sampled in the monitoring program, only burbot (Lota lota) showed a significant decrease in population abundance from 2009-2013. However, grayling, burbot, and roach (Rutilus rutilus) all showed significant declines in average body size, suggesting a negative fishing impact. Data-poor stock assessment methods suggest that the fishing effort equivalent to each resident family fishing 50-m of gillnet 11-15 nights per year would be sufficient to overexploit the grayling population. Results from the derelict fishing gear survey and interviews suggest that this level of effort is not implausible. Overall, we demonstrate the ability for a mixed-method approach to effectively describe an illegal fishery and suggest that these methods be used to assess illegal fishing and its impacts in other protected areas.

A Mixed-Method Approach for Quantifying Illegal Fishing and Its Impact on an Endangered Fish Species

PubMed Central

Free, Christopher M.; Jensen, Olaf P.; Mendsaikhan, Bud

2015-01-01

Illegal harvest is recognized as a widespread problem in natural resource management. The use of multiple methods for quantifying illegal harvest has been widely recommended yet infrequently applied. We used a mixed-method approach to evaluate the extent, character, and motivations of illegal gillnet fishing in Lake Hovsgol National Park, Mongolia and its impact on the lake’s fish populations, especially that of the endangered endemic Hovsgol grayling (Thymallus nigrescens). Surveys for derelict fishing gear indicate that gillnet fishing is widespread and increasing and that fishers generally use 3–4 cm mesh gillnet. Interviews with resident herders and park rangers suggest that many residents fish for subsistence during the spring grayling spawning migration and that some residents fish commercially year-round. Interviewed herders and rangers generally agree that fish population sizes are decreasing but are divided on the causes and solutions. Biological monitoring indicates that the gillnet mesh sizes used by fishers efficiently target Hovsgol grayling. Of the five species sampled in the monitoring program, only burbot (Lota lota) showed a significant decrease in population abundance from 2009–2013. However, grayling, burbot, and roach (Rutilus rutilus) all showed significant declines in average body size, suggesting a negative fishing impact. Data-poor stock assessment methods suggest that the fishing effort equivalent to each resident family fishing 50-m of gillnet 11–15 nights per year would be sufficient to overexploit the grayling population. Results from the derelict fishing gear survey and interviews suggest that this level of effort is not implausible. Overall, we demonstrate the ability for a mixed-method approach to effectively describe an illegal fishery and suggest that these methods be used to assess illegal fishing and its impacts in other protected areas. PMID:26625154

Quantitative estimation of the cost of parasitic castration in a Helisoma anceps population using a matrix population model.

PubMed

Negovetich, N J; Esch, G W

2008-10-01

Larval trematodes frequently castrate their snail intermediate hosts. When castrated, the snails do not contribute offspring to the population, yet they persist and compete with the uninfected individuals for the available food resources. Parasitic castration should reduce the population growth rate lambda, but the magnitude of this decrease is unknown. The present study attempted to quantify the cost of parasitic castration at the level of the population by mathematically modeling the population of the planorbid snail Helisoma anceps in Charlie's Pond, North Carolina. Analysis of the model identified the life-history trait that most affects lambda, and the degree to which parasitic castration can lower lambda. A period matrix product model was constructed with estimates of fecundity, survival, growth rates, and infection probabilities calculated in a previous study. Elasticity analysis was performed by increasing the values of the life-history traits by 10% and recording the percentage change in lambda. Parasitic castration resulted in a 40% decrease in lambda of H. anceps. Analysis of the model suggests that decreasing the size at maturity was more effective at reducing the cost of castration than increasing survival or growth rates of the snails. The current matrix model was the first to mathematically describe a snail population, and the predictions of the model are in agreement with published research.

Fishing and bottom water temperature as drivers of change in maximum shell length in Atlantic surfclams (Spisula solidissima)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munroe, D. M.; Narváez, D. A.; Hennen, D.; Jacobson, L.; Mann, R.; Hofmann, E. E.; Powell, E. N.; Klinck, J. M.

2016-03-01

Maximum shell length of Atlantic surfclams (Spisula solidissima) on the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) continental shelf, obtained from federal fishery survey data from 1982-present, has decreased by 15-20 mm. Two potential causes of this decreasing trend, fishery removal of large animals and stress due to warming bottom temperatures, were investigated using an individual-based model for post-settlement surfclams and a fifty-year hindcast of bottom water temperatures on the MAB. Simulations showed that fishing and/or warming bottom water temperature can cause decreases in maximum surfclam shell length (body size) equivalent to those observed in the fished stock. Independently, either localized fishing rates of 20% or sustained bottom temperatures that are 2 °C warmer than average conditions generate the observed decrease in maximum shell length. However, these independent conditions represent extremes and are not sustained in the MAB. The combined effects of fishing and warmer temperatures can generate simulated length decreases that are similar to observed decreases. Interannual variability in bottom water temperatures can also generate fluctuations in simulated shell length of up to 20 mm over a period of 10-15 years. If the change in maximum size is not genotypic, simulations also suggest that shell size composition of surfclam populations can recover if conditions change; however, that recovery could take a decade to become evident.

The occurrence of Clithon retropictus (v. Martens, 1879) (Gastropoda: Neritidae) in an unusual habitat, northern Jeju Island, Republic of Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noseworthy, Ronald G.; Lee, Hee-Jung; Choi, Kwang-Sik

2013-09-01

Clithon retropictus is a neritid gastropod inhabiting mainly brackish water. Currently this species has been listed as a second grade endangered species of wildlife in Korea by the Ministry of Environment, due to the decrease in its population size. C. retropictus has previously been identified from estuaries on the south coast of Korea. In Jeju Island, this species has been reported only from the south coast. However, a population has recently been discovered on the north coast of the island in an apparently new type of habitat, under rocks adjacent to a dry riverbed on a muddy substrate. C. retropictus was found to be aggregated under some of the larger rocks, and the habitat was located near the high tide line. The present study reports some possible reasons for the occurrence of the population in this unusual habitat, and provides useful information on the biometry and population size which can be used in the management of this endangered species.

Growth anomalies on the coral genera Acropora and Porites are strongly associated with host density and human population size across the Indo-Pacific

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aeby, Greta S.; Williams, Gareth J.; Franklin, Erik C.; Haapkyla, Jessica; Harvell, C. Drew; Neale, Stephen; Page, Cathie A.; Raymundo, Laurie; Vargas-Angel, Bernardo; Willis, Bette L.; Work, Thierry M.; Davy, Simon K.

2011-01-01

Growth anomalies (GAs) are common, tumor-like diseases that can cause significant morbidity and decreased fecundity in the major Indo-Pacific reef-building coral genera, Acropora and Porites. GAs are unusually tractable for testing hypotheses about drivers of coral disease because of their pan-Pacific distributions, relatively high occurrence, and unambiguous ease of identification. We modeled multiple disease-environment associations that may underlie the prevalence of Acropora growth anomalies (AGA) (n = 304 surveys) and Porites growth anomalies (PGA) (n = 602 surveys) from across the Indo-Pacific. Nine predictor variables were modeled, including coral host abundance, human population size, and sea surface temperature and ultra-violet radiation anomalies. Prevalence of both AGAs and PGAs were strongly host density-dependent. PGAs additionally showed strong positive associations with human population size. Although this association has been widely posited, this is one of the first broad-scale studies unambiguously linking a coral disease with human population size. These results emphasize that individual coral diseases can show relatively distinct patterns of association with environmental predictors, even in similar diseases (growth anomalies) found on different host genera (Acropora vs. Porites). As human densities and environmental degradation increase globally, the prevalence of coral diseases like PGAs could increase accordingly, halted only perhaps by declines in host density below thresholds required for disease establishment.

The value of customised centiles in assessing perinatal mortality risk associated with parity and maternal size.

PubMed

Gardosi, J; Clausson, B; Francis, A

2009-09-01

We wanted to compare customised and population standards for defining smallness for gestational age (SGA) in the assessment of perinatal mortality risk associated with parity and maternal size. Population-based cohort study. Sweden. Swedish Birth Registry database 1992-1995 with 354 205 complete records. Coefficients were derived and applied to determine SGA by the fully customised method, or by adjustment for fetal sex only, and using the same fetal weight standard. Perinatal deaths and rates of small for gestational age (SGA) babies within subgroups stratified by parity, body mass index (BMI) and maternal size within the BMI range of 20.0-24.9. Perinatal mortality rates (PMR) had a U-shaped distribution in parity groups, increased proportionately with maternal BMI, and had no association with maternal size within the normal BMI range. For each of these subgroups, SGA rates determined by the customised method showed strong association with the PMR. In contrast, SGA based on uncustomised, population-based centiles had poor correlation with perinatal mortality. The increased perinatal mortality risk in pregnancies of obese mothers was associated with an increased risk of SGA using customised centiles, and a decreased risk of SGA using population-based centiles. The use of customised centiles to determine SGA improves the identification of pregnancies which are at increased risk of perinatal death.

Growth Anomalies on the Coral Genera Acropora and Porites Are Strongly Associated with Host Density and Human Population Size across the Indo-Pacific

PubMed Central

Franklin, Erik C.; Haapkyla, Jessica; Harvell, C. Drew; Neale, Stephen; Page, Cathie A.; Raymundo, Laurie; Vargas-Ángel, Bernardo; Willis, Bette L.; Work, Thierry M.; Davy, Simon K.

2011-01-01

Growth anomalies (GAs) are common, tumor-like diseases that can cause significant morbidity and decreased fecundity in the major Indo-Pacific reef-building coral genera, Acropora and Porites. GAs are unusually tractable for testing hypotheses about drivers of coral disease because of their pan-Pacific distributions, relatively high occurrence, and unambiguous ease of identification. We modeled multiple disease-environment associations that may underlie the prevalence of Acropora growth anomalies (AGA) (n = 304 surveys) and Porites growth anomalies (PGA) (n = 602 surveys) from across the Indo-Pacific. Nine predictor variables were modeled, including coral host abundance, human population size, and sea surface temperature and ultra-violet radiation anomalies. Prevalence of both AGAs and PGAs were strongly host density-dependent. PGAs additionally showed strong positive associations with human population size. Although this association has been widely posited, this is one of the first broad-scale studies unambiguously linking a coral disease with human population size. These results emphasize that individual coral diseases can show relatively distinct patterns of association with environmental predictors, even in similar diseases (growth anomalies) found on different host genera (Acropora vs. Porites). As human densities and environmental degradation increase globally, the prevalence of coral diseases like PGAs could increase accordingly, halted only perhaps by declines in host density below thresholds required for disease establishment. PMID:21365011

Evolution of complex density-dependent dispersal strategies.

PubMed

Parvinen, Kalle; Seppänen, Anne; Nagy, John D

2012-11-01

The question of how dispersal behavior is adaptive and how it responds to changes in selection pressure is more relevant than ever, as anthropogenic habitat alteration and climate change accelerate around the world. In metapopulation models where local populations are large, and thus local population size is measured in densities, density-dependent dispersal is expected to evolve to a single-threshold strategy, in which individuals stay in patches with local population density smaller than a threshold value and move immediately away from patches with local population density larger than the threshold. Fragmentation tends to convert continuous populations into metapopulations and also to decrease local population sizes. Therefore we analyze a metapopulation model, where each patch can support only a relatively small local population and thus experience demographic stochasticity. We investigated the evolution of density-dependent dispersal, emigration and immigration, in two scenarios: adult and natal dispersal. We show that density-dependent emigration can also evolve to a nonmonotone, "triple-threshold" strategy. This interesting phenomenon results from an interplay between the direct and indirect benefits of dispersal and the costs of dispersal. We also found that, compared to juveniles, dispersing adults may benefit more from density-dependent vs. density-independent dispersal strategies.

Inferring genetic connectivity in real populations, exemplified by coastal and oceanic Atlantic cod.

PubMed

Spies, Ingrid; Hauser, Lorenz; Jorde, Per Erik; Knutsen, Halvor; Punt, André E; Rogers, Lauren A; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2018-05-08

Genetic data are commonly used to estimate connectivity between putative populations, but translating them to demographic dispersal rates is complicated. Theoretical equations that infer a migration rate based on the genetic estimator F ST , such as Wright's equation, F ST ≈ 1/(4 N e m + 1), make assumptions that do not apply to most real populations. How complexities inherent to real populations affect migration was exemplified by Atlantic cod in the North Sea and Skagerrak and was examined within an age-structured model that incorporated genetic markers. Migration was determined under various scenarios by varying the number of simulated migrants until the mean simulated level of genetic differentiation matched a fixed level of genetic differentiation equal to empirical estimates. Parameters that decreased the N e / N t ratio (where N e is the effective and N t is the total population size), such as high fishing mortality and high fishing gear selectivity, increased the number of migrants required to achieve empirical levels of genetic differentiation. Higher maturity-at-age and lower selectivity increased N e / N t and decreased migration when genetic differentiation was fixed. Changes in natural mortality, fishing gear selectivity, and maturity-at-age within expected limits had a moderate effect on migration when genetic differentiation was held constant. Changes in population size had the greatest effect on the number of migrants to achieve fixed levels of F ST , particularly when genetic differentiation was low, F ST ≈ 10 -3 Highly variable migration patterns, compared with constant migration, resulted in higher variance in genetic differentiation and higher extreme values. Results are compared with and provide insight into the use of theoretical equations to estimate migration among real populations. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Population and development.

PubMed

Pavlik, Z

1995-01-01

During the Paleolithic period, 10,000-100,000 people lived on the earth; their number exceeded 1 million at the beginning of the Neolithic period, reached 10 million during the Bronze Age, 100 million at the beginning of the Iron Age, 1 billion at the beginning of the 19th century, and 5.7 billion in 1995. The estimated global population will be 10 billion by the middle of the 21st century and is expected to stabilize at around 10-12 billion subsequently. Increased agricultural production helped bring about greater numbers of humanity and the advancement of society with a developing social hierarchy, although life expectancy was low at 22-28 years. In Europe, the Renaissance gradually evolved into the Industrial Revolution, and a demographic revolution accompanied this process. In some countries, population size increased more than five times. Eventually, mortality and fertility levels decreased and life expectancy increased. In Western civilization, increased individualism, secularization, compulsory school attendance, decreased agricultural population, emancipation of women, increased costs of raising children, and social and economic progress ensued. All this was preceded by 18th century conditions, when, in England, capital accumulation led to wealth on the one side and destitution on the other, giving rise to Malthus's famous theory. However, during the 19th century these social inequalities gradually evened out. After World War II, the question arose of whether the populations of other civilizations (Confucian, Japanese, Islamic, Hindu, Slavic-Orthodox, Latin American, and African) would also undergo a demographic transition and how soon. At any rate, developed country population size, as a percentage of global population, will drop from 22% to 13%, and that of Africa will increase from 12% to 26%, during the 21st century.

Inequalities in body size among mermithid nematodes parasitizing earwigs.

PubMed

Maure, Fanny; Poulin, Robert

2016-12-01

Variation among body sizes of adult parasitic worms determines the relative genetic contribution of individuals to the next generation as it affects the effective parasite population size. Here, we investigate inequalities in body size and how they are affected by intensity of infection in Mermis nigrescens (Mermithidae: Nematoda) parasitizing the European earwig Forficula auricularia in New Zealand. Among a population of pre-adult worms prior to their emergence from the host, we observed only modest inequalities in body length; however, among worms sharing the same individual host, inequalities in body sizes decreased with increasing intensity of infection. Thus, the more worms occurred in a host, the more the second-longest, third-longest and even fourth-longest worms approached the longest worm in body length. This pattern, also known from another mermithid species, suggests that worms sharing the same host may have infected it roughly simultaneously, when the host encountered a clump of eggs in the environment. Thus, the life history and mode of infection of the parasite may explain the modest inequalities in the sizes achieved by pre-adult worms, which are lower than those reported for endoparasitic helminths of vertebrates.

Determining individual variation in growth and its implication for life-history and population processes using the empirical Bayes method.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Crivelli, Alain J; Munch, Stephan; Skaug, Hans J

2014-09-01

The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups) determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth) and L∞ (asymptotic size). Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish.

Changes in Patch Features May Exacerbate or Compensate for the Effect of Habitat Loss on Forest Bird Populations

PubMed Central

Magrach, Ainhoa; Larrinaga, Asier R.; Santamaría, Luis

2011-01-01

One and a half centuries after Darwin visited Chiloe Island, what he described as “…an island covered by one great forest…” has lost two-thirds of its forested areas. At this biodiversity hotspot, forest surface is becoming increasingly fragmented due to unregulated logging, clearing for pastures and replacement by exotic tree plantations. Decrease in patch size, increased isolation and “edge effects” can influence the persistence of forest species in remnant fragments. We assessed how these variables affect local density for six forest birds, chosen to include the most important seed dispersers (four species) and bird pollinators (two species, one of which acts also as seed disperser), plus the most common insectivore (Aphrastura spinicauda). Based on cue-count point surveys (8 points per fragment), we estimated bird densities for each species in 22 forest fragments of varying size, shape, isolation and internal-habitat structure (e.g. tree size and epiphyte cover). Bird densities varied with fragment connectivity (three species) and shape (three species), but none of the species was significantly affected by patch size. Satellite image analyses revealed that, from 1985 to 2008, forested area decreased by 8.8% and the remaining forest fragments became 16% smaller, 58–73% more isolated and 11–50% more regular. During that period, bird density estimates for the northern part of Chiloé (covering an area of 1214.75 km2) decreased for one species (elaenia), increased for another two (chucao and hummingbird) and did not vary for three (rayadito, thrust and blackbird). For the first three species, changes in patch features respectively exacerbated, balanced and overcame the effects of forest loss on bird population size (landscape-level abundance). Hence, changes in patch features can modulate the effect of habitat fragmentation on forest birds, suggesting that spatial planning (guided by spatially-explicit models) can be an effective tool to facilitate their conservation. PMID:21738723

Changes in patch features may exacerbate or compensate for the effect of habitat loss on forest bird populations.

PubMed

Magrach, Ainhoa; Larrinaga, Asier R; Santamaría, Luis

2011-01-01

One and a half centuries after Darwin visited Chiloe Island, what he described as "…an island covered by one great forest…" has lost two-thirds of its forested areas. At this biodiversity hotspot, forest surface is becoming increasingly fragmented due to unregulated logging, clearing for pastures and replacement by exotic tree plantations. Decrease in patch size, increased isolation and "edge effects" can influence the persistence of forest species in remnant fragments. We assessed how these variables affect local density for six forest birds, chosen to include the most important seed dispersers (four species) and bird pollinators (two species, one of which acts also as seed disperser), plus the most common insectivore (Aphrastura spinicauda). Based on cue-count point surveys (8 points per fragment), we estimated bird densities for each species in 22 forest fragments of varying size, shape, isolation and internal-habitat structure (e.g. tree size and epiphyte cover). Bird densities varied with fragment connectivity (three species) and shape (three species), but none of the species was significantly affected by patch size. Satellite image analyses revealed that, from 1985 to 2008, forested area decreased by 8.8% and the remaining forest fragments became 16% smaller, 58-73% more isolated and 11-50% more regular. During that period, bird density estimates for the northern part of Chiloé (covering an area of 1214.75 km(2)) decreased for one species (elaenia), increased for another two (chucao and hummingbird) and did not vary for three (rayadito, thrust and blackbird). For the first three species, changes in patch features respectively exacerbated, balanced and overcame the effects of forest loss on bird population size (landscape-level abundance). Hence, changes in patch features can modulate the effect of habitat fragmentation on forest birds, suggesting that spatial planning (guided by spatially-explicit models) can be an effective tool to facilitate their conservation.

Introduced species and their missing parasites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Torchin, Mark E.; Lafferty, Kevin D.; Dobson, Andrew P.; McKenzie, Valerie J.; Kuris, Armand M.

2003-01-01

Damage caused by introduced species results from the high population densities and large body sizes that they attain in their new location. Escape from the effects of natural enemies is a frequent explanation given for the success of introduced species. Because some parasites can reduce host density and decrease body size, an invader that leaves parasites behind and encounters few new parasites can experience a demographic release and become a pest. To test whether introduced species are less parasitized, we have compared the parasites of exotic species in their native and introduced ranges, using 26 host species of molluscs, crustaceans, fishes, birds, mammals, amphibians and reptiles. Here we report that the number of parasite species found in native populations is twice that found in exotic populations. In addition, introduced populations are less heavily parasitized (in terms of percentage infected) than are native populations. Reduced parasitization of introduced species has several causes, including reduced probability of the introduction of parasites with exotic species (or early extinction after host establishment), absence of other required hosts in the new location, and the host-specific limitations of native parasites adapting to new hosts.

Wolf population dynamics in the U.S. Northern Rocky Mountains are affected by recruitment and human-caused mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gude, J.A.; Mitchell, M.S.; Russell, R.E.; Sime, C.A.; Bangs, E.E.; Mech, L.D.; Ream, R.R.

2012-01-01

Reliable analyses can help wildlife managers make good decisions, which are particularly critical for controversial decisions such as wolf (Canis lupus) harvest. Creel and Rotella (2010) recently predicted substantial population declines in Montana wolf populations due to harvest, in contrast to predictions made by Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks (MFWP). We replicated their analyses considering only those years in which field monitoring was consistent, and we considered the effect of annual variation in recruitment on wolf population growth. Rather than assuming constant rates, we used model selection methods to evaluate and incorporate models of factors driving recruitment and human-caused mortality rates in wolf populations in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Using data from 27 area-years of intensive wolf monitoring, we show that variation in both recruitment and human-caused mortality affect annual wolf population growth rates and that human-caused mortality rates have increased with the sizes of wolf populations. We document that recruitment rates have decreased over time, and we speculate that rates have decreased with increasing population sizes and/or that the ability of current field resources to document recruitment rates has recently become less successful as the number of wolves in the region has increased. Estimates of positive wolf population growth in Montana from our top models are consistent with field observations and estimates previously made by MFWP for 2008-2010, whereas the predictions for declining wolf populations of Creel and Rotella (2010) are not. Familiarity with limitations of raw data, obtained first-hand or through consultation with scientists who collected the data, helps generate more reliable inferences and conclusions in analyses of publicly available datasets. Additionally, development of efficient monitoring methods for wolves is a pressing need, so that analyses such as ours will be possible in future years when fewer resources will be available for monitoring. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society. Copyright ?? The Wildlife Society, 2011.

The effect of hydraulic retention time on the performance and fouling characteristics of membrane sequencing batch reactors used for the treatment of synthetic petroleum refinery wastewater.

PubMed

Shariati, Seyed Ramin Pajoum; Bonakdarpour, Babak; Zare, Nasim; Ashtiani, Farzin Zokaee

2011-09-01

The use of membrane sequencing batch reactors, operated at HRT of 8, 16 and 24h, was considered for the treatment of a synthetic petroleum wastewater. Increase in HRT resulted in statistically significant decrease in MLSS. Removal efficiencies higher than 97% were found for the three model hydrocarbon pollutants at all HRTs, with air stripping making a small contribution to overall removal. Particle size distribution (PSD) and microscopic analysis showed reduction in the protozoan populations in the activated sludge with decreasing HRT. PSD analysis also showed a higher proportion of larger and smaller sized particles at the lowest HRT. The rate of membrane fouling was found to increase with decreasing HRT; SMP, especially carbohydrate SMP, and mixed liquor apparent viscosity also showed a pronounced increase with decreasing HRT, whereas the concentration of EPS and its components decreased. FTIR analysis identified organic compounds as the main component of membrane pore fouling. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

3D-HST+CANDELS: The Evolution of the Galaxy Size-Mass Distribution since z = 3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Wel, A.; Franx, M.; van Dokkum, P. G.; Skelton, R. E.; Momcheva, I. G.; Whitaker, K. E.; Brammer, G. B.; Bell, E. F.; Rix, H.-W.; Wuyts, S.; Ferguson, H. C.; Holden, B. P.; Barro, G.; Koekemoer, A. M.; Chang, Yu-Yen; McGrath, E. J.; Häussler, B.; Dekel, A.; Behroozi, P.; Fumagalli, M.; Leja, J.; Lundgren, B. F.; Maseda, M. V.; Nelson, E. J.; Wake, D. A.; Patel, S. G.; Labbé, I.; Faber, S. M.; Grogin, N. A.; Kocevski, D. D.

2014-06-01

Spectroscopic+photometric redshifts, stellar mass estimates, and rest-frame colors from the 3D-HST survey are combined with structural parameter measurements from CANDELS imaging to determine the galaxy size-mass distribution over the redshift range 0 < z < 3. Separating early- and late-type galaxies on the basis of star-formation activity, we confirm that early-type galaxies are on average smaller than late-type galaxies at all redshifts, and we find a significantly different rate of average size evolution at fixed galaxy mass, with fast evolution for the early-type population, R effvprop(1 + z)-1.48, and moderate evolution for the late-type population, R effvprop(1 + z)-0.75. The large sample size and dynamic range in both galaxy mass and redshift, in combination with the high fidelity of our measurements due to the extensive use of spectroscopic data, not only fortify previous results but also enable us to probe beyond simple average galaxy size measurements. At all redshifts the slope of the size-mass relation is shallow, R_{eff}\\propto M_*^{0.22}, for late-type galaxies with stellar mass >3 × 109 M ⊙, and steep, R_{eff}\\propto M_*^{0.75}, for early-type galaxies with stellar mass >2 × 1010 M ⊙. The intrinsic scatter is lsim0.2 dex for all galaxy types and redshifts. For late-type galaxies, the logarithmic size distribution is not symmetric but is skewed toward small sizes: at all redshifts and masses, a tail of small late-type galaxies exists that overlaps in size with the early-type galaxy population. The number density of massive (~1011 M ⊙), compact (R eff < 2 kpc) early-type galaxies increases from z = 3 to z = 1.5-2 and then strongly decreases at later cosmic times.

Fish movement and habitat use depends on water body size and shape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woolnough, D.A.; Downing, J.A.; Newton, T.J.

2009-01-01

Home ranges are central to understanding habitat diversity, effects of fragmentation and conservation. The distance that an organism moves yields information on life history, genetics and interactions with other organisms. Present theory suggests that home range is set by body size of individuals. Here, we analyse estimates of home ranges in lakes and rivers to show that body size of fish and water body size and shape influence home range size. Using 71 studies including 66 fish species on five continents, we show that home range estimates increased with increasing water body size across water body shapes. This contrasts with past studies concluding that body size sets home range. We show that water body size was a consistently significant predictor of home range. In conjunction, body size and water body size can provide improved estimates of home range than just body size alone. As habitat patches are decreasing in size worldwide, our findings have implications for ecology, conservation and genetics of populations in fragmented ecosystems. ?? 2008 Blackwell Munksgaard.

Optimal Vaccination in a Stochastic Epidemic Model of Two Non-Interacting Populations

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-17

of diminishing returns from vacci- nation will generally take place at smaller vaccine allocations V compared to the deterministic model. Optimal...take place and small r0 values where it does not is illustrat- ed in Fig. 4C. As r0 is decreased, the region between the two instances of switching...approximately distribute vaccine in proportion to population size. For large r0 (r0 ≳ 2.9), two switches take place . In the deterministic optimal solution, a

Trends in Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Infant Mortality Rates in the United States, 1989–2006

PubMed Central

Rossen, Lauren M.; Schoendorf, Kenneth C.

2014-01-01

Objectives. We sought to measure overall disparities in pregnancy outcome, incorporating data from the many race and ethnic groups that compose the US population, to improve understanding of how disparities may have changed over time. Methods. We used Birth Cohort Linked Birth–Infant Death Data Files from US Vital Statistics from 1989–1990 and 2005–2006 to examine multigroup indices of racial and ethnic disparities in the overall infant mortality rate (IMR), preterm birth rate, and gestational age–specific IMRs. We calculated selected absolute and relative multigroup disparity metrics weighting subgroups equally and by population size. Results. Overall IMR decreased on the absolute scale, but increased on the population-weighted relative scale. Disparities in the preterm birth rate decreased on both the absolute and relative scales, and across equally weighted and population-weighted indices. Disparities in preterm IMR increased on both the absolute and relative scales. Conclusions. Infant mortality is a common bellwether of general and maternal and child health. Despite significant decreases in disparities in the preterm birth rate, relative disparities in overall and preterm IMRs increased significantly over the past 20 years. PMID:24028239

Changes of erythrocyte-metric parameters in Pelophylax ridibundus (Amphibia: Anura: Ranidae) inhabiting water bodies with different types of anthropogenic pollution in Southern Bulgaria.

PubMed

Zhelev, Zhivko; Popgeorgiev, Georgi; Ivanov, Ivan; Boyadzhiev, Peter

2017-07-01

The article presents the basic erythrocyte-metric parameters: cell length (EL) and width (EW), EL/EW, erythrocyte size (ES), nucleus length (NL) and width (NW), NL/NW, nucleus size (NS) and nucleocytoplasmic ratio (NS/ES) in the wild populations of marsh frogs Pelophylax ridibundus from five water bodies in Southern Bulgaria (two rivers and three reservoirs) with different degrees and types of anthropogenic pollution (less disrupted water basins, domestic sewage pollution and heavy metal pollution). The changes in erythrocyte-metric parameters depend on concentrations and types of toxicant and, to a lesser extent, on the type of water basin. We found that when P. ridibundus populations live in conditions of domestic sewage pollution, EL, EW and ES increase in comparison with the control samples, with regard to an elongated elliptical cell shape. Simultaneously, NL, NW and NS did not undergo any significant changes when compared with the control samples. The nuclei had elliptical shape. In the populations from the water basins with heavy metal pollution, EL, EW, ES, NL, NW and NS decreased. The cells and nuclei had a circular shape. NS/ES decreased when compared with the control sample, regardless of the type of toxicants.

Impacts of invasive fish removal through angling on population characteristics and juvenile growth rate.

PubMed

Evangelista, Charlotte; Britton, Robert J; Cucherousset, Julien

2015-06-01

Exploitation can modify the characteristics of fish populations through the selective harvesting of individuals, with this potentially leading to rapid ecological and evolutionary changes. Despite the well-known effects of invasive fishes on aquatic ecosystems generally, the potential effects of their selective removal through angling, a strategy commonly used to manage invasive fish, are poorly understood. The aim of this field-based study was to use the North American pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus as the model species to investigate the consequences of selective removal on their population characteristics and juvenile growth rates across 10 populations in artificial lakes in southern France. We found that the maximal individual mass in populations decreased as removal pressure through angling increased, whereas we did not observed any changes in the maximal individual length in populations as removal pressure increased. Total population abundance did not decrease as removal pressure increased; instead, here was a U-shaped relationship between removal pressure and the abundance of medium-bodied individuals. In addition, population biomass had a U-shaped curve response to removal pressure, implying that invasive fish populations can modulate their characteristics to compensate for the negative effects of selective removals. In addition, individual lengths at age 2 and juvenile growth rates decreased as removal pressure through angling increased, suggesting a shift toward an earlier size at maturity and an overall slower growing phenotype. Therefore, these outputs challenge the efficiency of selective management methods, suggesting the use of more proactive strategies to control invasive populations, and the need to investigate the potential ecological and evolutionary repercussions of nonrandom removal.

Impacts of invasive fish removal through angling on population characteristics and juvenile growth rate

PubMed Central

Evangelista, Charlotte; Britton, Robert J; Cucherousset, Julien

2015-01-01

Exploitation can modify the characteristics of fish populations through the selective harvesting of individuals, with this potentially leading to rapid ecological and evolutionary changes. Despite the well-known effects of invasive fishes on aquatic ecosystems generally, the potential effects of their selective removal through angling, a strategy commonly used to manage invasive fish, are poorly understood. The aim of this field-based study was to use the North American pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus as the model species to investigate the consequences of selective removal on their population characteristics and juvenile growth rates across 10 populations in artificial lakes in southern France. We found that the maximal individual mass in populations decreased as removal pressure through angling increased, whereas we did not observed any changes in the maximal individual length in populations as removal pressure increased. Total population abundance did not decrease as removal pressure increased; instead, here was a U-shaped relationship between removal pressure and the abundance of medium-bodied individuals. In addition, population biomass had a U-shaped curve response to removal pressure, implying that invasive fish populations can modulate their characteristics to compensate for the negative effects of selective removals. In addition, individual lengths at age 2 and juvenile growth rates decreased as removal pressure through angling increased, suggesting a shift toward an earlier size at maturity and an overall slower growing phenotype. Therefore, these outputs challenge the efficiency of selective management methods, suggesting the use of more proactive strategies to control invasive populations, and the need to investigate the potential ecological and evolutionary repercussions of nonrandom removal. PMID:26078856

Firearm and nonfirearm homicide in 5 South African cities: a retrospective population-based study.

PubMed

Matzopoulos, Richard G; Thompson, Mary Lou; Myers, Jonathan E

2014-03-01

We assessed the effectiveness of South Africa's Firearm Control Act (FCA), passed in 2000, on firearm homicide rates compared with rates of nonfirearm homicide across 5 South African cities from 2001 to 2005. We conducted a retrospective population-based study of 37 067 firearm and nonfirearm homicide cases. Generalized linear models helped estimate and compare time trends of firearm and nonfirearm homicides, adjusting for age, sex, race, day of week, city, year of death, and population size. There was a statistically significant decreasing trend regarding firearm homicides from 2001, with an adjusted year-on-year homicide rate ratio of 0.864 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.848, 0.880), representing a decrease of 13.6% per annum. The year-on-year decrease in nonfirearm homicide rates was also significant, but considerably lower at 0.976 (95% CI = 0.954, 0.997). Results suggest that 4585 (95% CI = 4427, 4723) lives were saved across 5 cities from 2001 to 2005 because of the FCA. Strength, timing and consistent decline suggest stricter gun control mediated by the FCA accounted for a significant decrease in homicide overall, and firearm homicide in particular, during the study period.

Status and trends of adult Lost River (Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose (Chasmistes brevirostris) sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2017

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hewitt, David A.; Janney, Eric C.; Hayes, Brian S.; Harris, Alta C.

2018-04-24

Executive SummaryData from a long-term capture-recapture program were used to assess the status and dynamics of populations of two long-lived, federally endangered catostomids in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. Lost River suckers (LRS; Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose suckers (SNS; Chasmistes brevirostris) have been captured and tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags during their spawning migrations in each year since 1995. In addition, beginning in 2005, individuals that had been previously PIT-tagged were re-encountered on remote underwater antennas deployed throughout sucker spawning areas. Captures and remote encounters during the spawning season in spring 2016 were incorporated into capture-recapture analyses of population dynamics.Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) open population capture-recapture models were used to estimate annual survival probabilities, and a reverse-time analog of the CJS model was used to estimate recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations. In addition, data on the size composition of captured fish were examined to provide corroborating evidence of recruitment. Model estimates of survival and recruitment were used to derive estimates of changes in population size over time and to determine the status of the populations through 2015. Separate analyses were done for each species and also for each subpopulation of LRS. Shortnose suckers and one subpopulation of LRS migrate into tributary rivers to spawn, whereas the other LRS subpopulation spawns at groundwater upwelling areas along the eastern shoreline of the lake.Capture-recapture analyses indicated that with a few exceptions, the survival of males and females in both Lost River sucker subpopulations was high (greater than 0.88) from 1999 to 2015. Survival was notably lower for males from the river in 2000, 2006, and 2012, and for the shoreline areas in 2002. From 2001 to 2015, the abundance of males in the lakeshore spawning subpopulation decreased by at least 64 percent and the abundance of females decreased by at least 56 percent. Capture-recapture models suggested that the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation of LRS had increased substantially since 2006; increases were mostly due to large estimated recruitment events in 2006 and 2008. We know that the estimates in 2006 are substantially biased in favor of recruitment because of a sampling issue. We are skeptical of the magnitude of recruitment indicated by the 2008 estimates as well because (1) few small individuals that would indicate the presence of new recruits were captured in that year, and (2) recapture probabilities in recruitment models based on just physical recaptures of fish were lower than desired for robust inferences from capture-recapture models. If we assume instead that little or no recruitment occurred for this subpopulation, the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation likely has decreased at rates similar to the rates for the lakeshore spawning subpopulation from 2002 to 2015.Shortnose suckers experienced lower and more variable annual survival than either LRS subpopulation. Annual survival of both sexes was relatively low in 2003, 2004, 2010, and 2012. In addition, female survival was low in 1999 and 2000 while male survival was low in 2002. Survival estimate precision in early years of the study; however, are poor. Capture-recapture models and size composition data indicate that recruitment of new individuals into the SNS spawning population was trivial from 2001 to 2005. Models indicate that more than 10 percent of the population was new recruits in a number of more recent years. As a result, capture-recapture modeling suggests that the abundance of adult spawning SNS was relatively stable from 2006 to 2010. We are skeptical of the estimated recruitment in 2006 because of the known sampling issue. We also are skeptical of the estimated recruitment in other recent years because few small individuals that would indicate the presence of new recruits were captured in any of those years, and recapture probabilities in recruitment models were low. The best-case scenario for SNS, based on capture-recapture recruitment modeling, indicates that the abundance of males in the spawning population decreased by 78 percent and the abundance of females decreased by 77 percent from 2001 to 2015. Decreases in abundance for both sexes are likely greater than these estimates indicate.Despite relatively high survival in most years, we conclude that both species have experienced substantial decreases in the abundance of spawning adults because losses from mortality have not been balanced by recruitment of new individuals. Although capture-recapture data indicate substantial recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations for SNS and river spawning LRS in some years, size data do not corroborate these estimates. As a result, the status of the endangered sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake remains distressed, especially for SNS. Our monitoring program provides a robust platform for estimating vital population parameters, evaluating the status of the populations, and assessing the effectiveness of conservation and recovery efforts.

Modeling of Particle Agglomeration in Nanofluids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanagala, Hari Krishna

Nanofluids are colloidal dispersions of nano sized particles (<100nm in diameter) in dispersion mediums. They are of great interest in industrial applications as heat transfer fluids owing to their enhanced thermal conductivities. Stability of nanofluids is a major problem hindering their industrial application. Agglomeration and then sedimentation are some reasons, which drastically decrease the shelf life of these nanofluids. Current research addresses the agglomeration effect and how it can affect the shelf life of a nanofluid. The reasons for agglomeration in nanofluids are attributable to the interparticle interactions which are quantified by the various theories. By altering the governing properties like volume fraction, pH and electrolyte concentration different nanofluids with instant agglomeration, slow agglomeration and no agglomeration can be produced. A numerical model is created based on the discretized population balance equations which analyses the particle size distribution at different times. Agglomeration effects have been analyzed for alumina nanoparticles with average particle size of 150nm dispersed in de-ionized water. As the pH was moved towards the isoelectric point of alumina nanofluids, the particle size distribution became broader and moved to bigger sizes rapidly with time. Particle size distributions became broader and moved to bigger sizes more quickly with time with increase in the electrolyte concentration. The two effects together can be used to create different temporal trends in the particle size distributions. Faster agglomeration is attributed to the decrease in the electrostatic double layer repulsion forces which is due to decrease in the induced charge and the double layer thickness around the particle. Bigger particle clusters show lesser agglomeration due to reaching the equilibrium size. The procedures and processes described in this work can be used to generate more stable nanofluids.

A POSSIBLE DIVOT IN THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF THE KUIPER BELT'S SCATTERING OBJECTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shankman, C.; Gladman, B. J.; Kaib, N.

Via joint analysis of a calibrated telescopic survey, which found scattering Kuiper Belt objects, and models of their expected orbital distribution, we explore the scattering-object (SO) size distribution. Although for D > 100 km the number of objects quickly rise as diameters decrease, we find a relative lack of smaller objects, ruling out a single power law at greater than 99% confidence. After studying traditional ''knees'' in the size distribution, we explore other formulations and find that, surprisingly, our analysis is consistent with a very sudden decrease (a divot) in the number distribution as diameters decrease below 100 km, whichmore » then rises again as a power law. Motivated by other dynamically hot populations and the Centaurs, we argue for a divot size distribution where the number of smaller objects rises again as expected via collisional equilibrium. Extrapolation yields enough kilometer-scale SOs to supply the nearby Jupiter-family comets. Our interpretation is that this divot feature is a preserved relic of the size distribution made by planetesimal formation, now ''frozen in'' to portions of the Kuiper Belt sharing a ''hot'' orbital inclination distribution, explaining several puzzles in Kuiper Belt science. Additionally, we show that to match today's SO inclination distribution, the supply source that was scattered outward must have already been vertically heated to the of order 10 Degree-Sign .« less

Altitudinal gradients of generalist and specialist herbivory on three montane Asteraceae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheidel, U.; Röhl, S.; Bruelheide, H.

Different functional types of herbivory on three montane Asteraceae were investigated in natural populations in central Germany to test the hypothesis that herbivory is decreasing with altitude. Generalist herbivory was assessed as leaf area loss, mainly caused by slugs, and, in Petasites albus, as rhizome mining by oligophagous insect larvae. Capitules were found to be parasitized by oligophagous insects in Centaurea pseudophrygia and by the specialist fly Tephritis arnicae in Arnica montana. Only the damage to leaves of P. albus showed the hypothesized decrease with increasing altitude. No altitudinal gradient could be found in the leaf and capitule damage to C. pseudophrygia. In A. montana, capitule damage increased with increasing elevation. The data suggest that abundance and activity of generalist herbivores are more affected by climatic conditions along altitudinal gradients than specialist herbivores. In all probability, specialist herbivores depend less on abiotic conditions than on their host's population characteristics, such as host population size.

Climate change and the northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris) population in Baja California, Mexico.

PubMed

García-Aguilar, María C; Turrent, Cuauhtémoc; Elorriaga-Verplancken, Fernando R; Arias-Del-Razo, Alejandro; Schramm, Yolanda

2018-01-01

The Earth's climate is warming, especially in the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. The northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris) breeds and haul-outs on islands and the mainland of Baja California, Mexico, and California, U.S.A. At the beginning of the 21st century, numbers of elephant seals in California are increasing, but the status of Baja California populations is unknown, and some data suggest they may be decreasing. We hypothesize that the elephant seal population of Baja California is experiencing a decline because the animals are not migrating as far south due to warming sea and air temperatures. Here we assessed population trends of the Baja California population, and climate change in the region. The numbers of northern elephant seals in Baja California colonies have been decreasing since the 1990s, and both the surface waters off Baja California and the local air temperatures have warmed during the last three decades. We propose that declining population sizes may be attributable to decreased migration towards the southern portions of the range in response to the observed temperature increases. Further research is needed to confirm our hypothesis; however, if true, it would imply that elephant seal colonies of Baja California and California are not demographically isolated which would pose challenges to environmental and management policies between Mexico and the United States.

[Dynamic of marriage structure in three cities of Ukraine from 1960 to 1992].

PubMed

Timchenko, O I; Omel'chenko, E M; Nikula, E T

2000-04-01

Marriage structure was studied in the city of Kiev and in two cities of the Sumy oblast, Shostka and Trostyanets. Ethnic affiliations and birthplaces of persons contracting marriage were analyzed as the main characteristics of population genetic diversity. The ethnic composition of persons contracting marriage and the proportions of mono- and interethnic marriages remained almost unchanged during one generation. The majority of the persons contracting marriage were Ukrainians (66-91%); among other ethnic groups, only Russians considerably contributed to ethnic diversity (up to 26%). During the period studied, coefficients of marital migration substantially decreased in Kiev (from 0.66-0.82 to 0.34) and Shostka (from 0.72 to 0.52) and changed only insignificantly in Trostyanets. Outbreeding was estimated based on the migration parameters, exogamy level, and marital migration distances. The outbreeding level in the Shostka population (100,000 people) was comparable with that for the considerably larger Kiev population (two million people); however, it was significantly higher than that for the Trostyanets population, the size of which was close to the size of the Shostka population. It is supposed that "migration stress" may unfavorably affect the adaptive genetic structure of the Shostka population.

Population Structure, Genetic Diversity, and Evolutionary History of Kleinia neriifolia (Asteraceae) on the Canary Islands.

PubMed

Sun, Ye; Vargas-Mendoza, Carlos F

2017-01-01

Kleinia neriifolia Haw. is an endemic species on the Canarian archipelago, this species is widespread in the coastal thicket of all the Canarian islands. In the present study, genetic diversity and population structure of K. neriifolia were investigated using chloroplast gene sequences and nuclear SSR (simple sequence repeat). The differentiation among island populations, the historical demography, and the underlying evolutionary scenarios of this species are further tested based on the genetic data. Chloroplast diversity reveals a strong genetic divergence between eastern islands (Gran Canaria, Fuerteventura, and Lanzarote) and western islands (EI Hierro, La Palma, La Gomera, Tenerife), this west-east genetic divergence may reflect a very beginning of speciation. The evolutionary scenario with highest posterior probabilities suggests Gran Canaria as oldest population with a westward colonization path to Tenerife, La Gomera, La Palma, and EI Hierro, and eastward dispersal path to Lanzarote through Fuerteventura. In the western islands, there is a slight decrease in the effective population size toward areas of recent colonization. However, in the eastern islands, the effective population size increase in Lanzarote relative to Gran Canaria and Fuerteventura. These results further our understanding of the evolution of widespread endemic plants within Canarian archipelago.

Population Structure, Genetic Diversity, and Evolutionary History of Kleinia neriifolia (Asteraceae) on the Canary Islands

PubMed Central

Sun, Ye; Vargas-Mendoza, Carlos F.

2017-01-01

Kleinia neriifolia Haw. is an endemic species on the Canarian archipelago, this species is widespread in the coastal thicket of all the Canarian islands. In the present study, genetic diversity and population structure of K. neriifolia were investigated using chloroplast gene sequences and nuclear SSR (simple sequence repeat). The differentiation among island populations, the historical demography, and the underlying evolutionary scenarios of this species are further tested based on the genetic data. Chloroplast diversity reveals a strong genetic divergence between eastern islands (Gran Canaria, Fuerteventura, and Lanzarote) and western islands (EI Hierro, La Palma, La Gomera, Tenerife), this west–east genetic divergence may reflect a very beginning of speciation. The evolutionary scenario with highest posterior probabilities suggests Gran Canaria as oldest population with a westward colonization path to Tenerife, La Gomera, La Palma, and EI Hierro, and eastward dispersal path to Lanzarote through Fuerteventura. In the western islands, there is a slight decrease in the effective population size toward areas of recent colonization. However, in the eastern islands, the effective population size increase in Lanzarote relative to Gran Canaria and Fuerteventura. These results further our understanding of the evolution of widespread endemic plants within Canarian archipelago. PMID:28713419

Spatial variation in abiotic and biotic factors in a floodplain determine anuran body size and growth rate at metamorphosis.

PubMed

Indermaur, Lukas; Schmidt, Benedikt R; Tockner, Klement; Schaub, Michael

2010-07-01

Body size at metamorphosis is a critical trait in the life history of amphibians. Despite the wide-spread use of amphibians as experimental model organisms, there is a limited understanding of how multiple abiotic and biotic factors affect the variation in metamorphic traits under natural conditions. The aim of our study was to quantify the effects of abiotic and biotic factors on spatial variation in the body size of tadpoles and size at metamorphosis of the European common toad (Bufo b. spinosus). Our study population was distributed over the riverbed (active tract) and the fringing riparian forest of a natural floodplain. The riverbed had warm ponds with variable hydroperiod and few predators, whereas the forest had ponds with the opposite characteristics. Spatial variation in body size at metamorphosis was governed by the interactive effects of abiotic and biotic factors. The particular form of the interaction between water temperature and intraspecific tadpole density suggests that abiotic factors laid the foundation for biotic factors: intraspecific density decreased growth only at high temperature. Predation and intraspecific density jointly reduced metamorphic size. Interspecific density had a negligible affect on body size at metamorphosis, suggesting weak inter-anuran interactions in the larval stage. Population density at metamorphosis was about one to two orders of magnitudes higher in the riverbed ponds than in the forest ponds, mainly because of lower tadpole mortality. Based on our results, we conclude that ponds in the riverbed appear to play a pivotal role for the population because tadpole growth and survival is best in this habitat.

Pattern of relative growth in cockle Anadara antiquata in Ihamahu coastal waters, Central Maluku

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siahainenia, L.; Tuhumury, S. F.; Uneputty, P. A.; Tuhumury, N. C.

2018-03-01

Anadara antiquata is economically important species for fisheries and belong to phylum mollusc which also found in Maluku. However, the density of population begins to decrease recently due to high exploitation by people. The objective of the present study was to analyze relative growth pattern of A. antiquata including size distribution and growth pattern based on shell dimensions. The study was conducted from December 2016 to February 2017 in Ihamahu coastal waters. Data were collected by using purposive random sampling. All the individuals of A. antiquata found were measured the length, width and height by using a vernier caliper to the nearest 0.01mm. Data were analyzed by using SPSS 20 and Microsoft Excel software. The results indicated that the A. antiquata mostly found in seagrass bed with a muddy substrate. The size distribution of shell dimensions was different during sampling. Overall, the length ranged from 15.87 mm to 57.5 mm, the width from 15.50 mm to 48.60 mm and the height was from 9.36 mm to 35.9 mm. The population of A. antiquata consisted of juvenile and mature size. The mature size (> 30 mm) was more dominant in the population. The A. antiquata showed allometric relative growth pattern based on shell dimensions.

Effect of reaction-step-size noise on the switching dynamics of stochastic populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Be'er, Shay; Heller-Algazi, Metar; Assaf, Michael

2016-05-01

In genetic circuits, when the messenger RNA lifetime is short compared to the cell cycle, proteins are produced in geometrically distributed bursts, which greatly affects the cellular switching dynamics between different metastable phenotypic states. Motivated by this scenario, we study a general problem of switching or escape in stochastic populations, where influx of particles occurs in groups or bursts, sampled from an arbitrary distribution. The fact that the step size of the influx reaction is a priori unknown and, in general, may fluctuate in time with a given correlation time and statistics, introduces an additional nondemographic reaction-step-size noise into the system. Employing the probability-generating function technique in conjunction with Hamiltonian formulation, we are able to map the problem in the leading order onto solving a stationary Hamilton-Jacobi equation. We show that compared to the "usual case" of single-step influx, bursty influx exponentially decreases the population's mean escape time from its long-lived metastable state. In particular, close to bifurcation we find a simple analytical expression for the mean escape time which solely depends on the mean and variance of the burst-size distribution. Our results are demonstrated on several realistic distributions and compare well with numerical Monte Carlo simulations.

Modeling the impacts of hunting on the population dynamics of red howler monkeys (Alouatta seniculus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiederholt, Ruscena; Fernandez-Duque, Eduardo; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Rudran, Rasanayagam

2010-01-01

Overexploitation of wildlife populations occurs across the humid tropics and is a significant threat to the long-term survival of large-bodied primates. To investigate the impacts of hunting on primates and ways to mitigate them, we developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model for a landscape that included hunted and un-hunted areas. We used the large-bodied neotropical red howler monkey (Alouatta seniculus) as our case study species because its life history characteristics make it vulnerable to hunting. We modeled the influence of different rates of harvest and proportions of landscape dedicated to un-hunted reserves on population persistence, population size, social dynamics, and hunting yields of red howler monkeys. In most scenarios, the un-hunted populations maintained a constant density regardless of hunting pressure elsewhere, and allowed the overall population to persist. Therefore, the overall population was quite resilient to extinction; only in scenarios without any un-hunted areas did the population go extinct. However, the total and hunted populations did experience large declines over 100 years under moderate and high hunting pressure. In addition, when reserve area decreased, population losses and losses per unit area increased disproportionately. Furthermore, hunting disrupted the social structure of troops. The number of male turnovers and infanticides increased in hunted populations, while birth rates decreased and exacerbated population losses due to hunting. Finally, our results indicated that when more than 55% of the landscape was harvested at high (30%) rates, hunting yields, as measured by kilograms of biomass, were less than those obtained from moderate harvest rates. Additionally, hunting yields, expressed as the number of individuals hunted/year/km2, increased in proximity to un-hunted areas, and suggested that dispersal from un-hunted areas may have contributed to hunting sustainability. These results indicate that un-hunted areas serve to enhance hunting yields, population size, and population persistence in hunted landscapes. Therefore, spatial regulation of hunting via a reserve system may be an effective management strategy for sustainable hunting, and we recommend it because it may also be more feasible to implement than harvest quotas or restrictions on season length.

Status and trends of adult Lost River (Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose (Chasmistes brevirostris) sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hewitt, David A.; Janney, Eric C.; Hayes, Brian S.; Harris, Alta C.

2015-10-02

Despite relatively high survival in most years, we conclude that both species have experienced substantial decreases in the abundance of spawning adults because losses from mortality have not been balanced by recruitment of new individuals. Although capture-recapture data indicate substantial recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations for SNS and river spawning LRS in some years, size data do not corroborate these estimates. As a result, the status of the endangered sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake remains worrisome, especially for shortnose suckers. Our monitoring program provides a robust platform for estimating vital population parameters, evaluating the status of the populations, and assessing the effectiveness of conservation and recovery efforts.

Loss of genetic connectivity and diversity in urban microreserves in a southern California endemic Jerusalem cricket (Orthoptera: Stenopelmatidae: Stenopelmatus n. sp. "santa monica")

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vandergast, A.G.; Lewallen, E.A.; Deas, J.; Bohonak, A.J.; Weissman, D.B.; Fisher, R.N.

2009-01-01

Microreserves may be useful in protecting native arthropod diversity in urbanized landscapes. However, species that do not disperse through the urban matrix may eventually be lost from these fragments. Population extinctions may be precipitated by an increase in genetic differentiation among fragments and loss of genetic diversity within fragments, and these effects should become stronger with time. We analyzed population genetic structure in the dispersal limited Jerusalem cricket Stenopelmatus n. sp. "santa monica" in the Santa Monica Mountains and Simi Hills north of Los Angeles, California (CA), to determine the impacts of fragmentation over the past 70 years. MtDNA divergence was greater among urban fragments than within contiguous habitat and was positively correlated with fragment age. MtDNA genetic diversity within fragments increased with fragment size and decreased with fragment age. Genetic divergence across 38 anonymous nuclear Inter-Simple Sequence Repeat (ISSR) loci was influenced by the presence of major highways and highway age, but there was no effect of additional urban fragmentation. ISSR diversity was not correlated with fragment size or age. Differing results between markers may be due to male-biased dispersal, or different effective population sizes, sorting rates, or mutation rates among sampled genes. Results suggest that genetic connectivity among populations has been disrupted by highways and urban development, prior to declines in local population sizes. We emphasize that genetic connectivity can rapidly erode in fragmented landscapes and that flightless arthropods can serve as sensitive indicators for these effects. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008.

Influence of adaptive mutations, from thermal adaptation experiments, on the infection cycle of RNA bacteriophage Qβ.

PubMed

Kashiwagi, Akiko; Kadoya, Tamami; Kumasaka, Naoya; Kumagai, Tomofumi; Tsushima, Fumie Sano; Yomo, Tetsuya

2018-06-04

A population's growth rate is determined by multiple 'life history traits'. To quantitatively determine which life history traits should be improved to allow a living organism to adapt to an inhibitory environment is an important issue. Previously, we conducted thermal adaptation experiments on the RNA bacteriophage Qβ using three independent replicates and reported that all three end-point populations could grow at a temperature (43.6°C) that inhibited the growth of the ancestral strain. Even though the fitness values of the endpoint populations were almost the same, their genome sequence was not, indicating that the three thermally adapted populations may have different life history traits. In this study, we introduced each mutation observed in these three end-point populations into the cDNA of the Qβ genome and prepared three different mutants. Quantitative analysis showed that they tended to increase their fitness by increasing the adsorption rate to their host, shortening their latent period (i.e., the duration between phage infection and progeny release), and increasing the burst size (i.e., the number of progeny phages per infected cell), but all three mutants decreased their thermal stability. However, the degree to which these traits changed differed. The mutant with the least mutations showed a smaller decrease in thermal stability, the largest adsorption rate to the host, and the shortest latent period. These results indicated that several different adaptive routes exist by which Qβ can adapt to higher temperatures, even though Qβ is a simple RNA bacteriophage with a small genome size, encoding only four genes.

Forest cover change and fragmentation using Landsat data in Maçka State Forest Enterprise in Turkey.

PubMed

Cakir, Günay; Sivrikaya, Fatih; Keleş, Sedat

2008-02-01

Monitoring forest cover change and understanding the dynamic of forest cover is increasingly important in sustainable development and management of forest ecosystems. This paper uses remote sensing (RS) techniques to monitor forest cover change in Maçka State Forest Enterprise (MSFE) located in NE of Turkey through 1975 to 2000 and then analyses spatial and temporal changes in forest cover by Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and FRAGSTATStrade mark. Forest cover changes were detected from a time series of satellite images of Landsat MSS in 1975, Landsat TM in 1987, and Landsat ETM+ in 2000 using RS and GIS. The results showed that total forest area, productive forest area and degraded forest area increased while broadleaf forest area and non forest area decreased. Mixed forest and degraded forest increased during the first (1975-1987) period, but decreased during the second (1987-2000) period. During the whole study period, the annual forestation rate was 152 ha year(-1), equivalent to 0.27% year(-1) using the compound-interest-rate formula. The total number of patches increased from 36,204 to 48,092 (33%), and mean size of forest patch (MPS) decreased from 2.8 ha to 2.1 ha during a 25 year period. Number of smaller patches (patches in 0-100 ha size class) increased, indicating more fragmented landscape over time that might create a risk for the maintenance of biodiversity of the area. While total population increased from 1975 to 2000 (3.7%), rural population constantly decreased. The increase of forest areas may well be explained by the fact that demographic movement of rural areas concentrated into Maçka City Center. These figures also indicated that decrease in the rural population might likely lead to the release of human pressure to forest areas, probably resulting in a positive development of forest areas.

Density-Dependent Regulation of Brook Trout Population Dynamics along a Core-Periphery Distribution Gradient in a Central Appalachian Watershed

PubMed Central

Huntsman, Brock M.; Petty, J. Todd

2014-01-01

Spatial population models predict strong density-dependence and relatively stable population dynamics near the core of a species' distribution with increasing variance and importance of density-independent processes operating towards the population periphery. Using a 10-year data set and an information-theoretic approach, we tested a series of candidate models considering density-dependent and density-independent controls on brook trout population dynamics across a core-periphery distribution gradient within a central Appalachian watershed. We sampled seven sub-populations with study sites ranging in drainage area from 1.3–60 km2 and long-term average densities ranging from 0.335–0.006 trout/m. Modeled response variables included per capita population growth rate of young-of-the-year, adult, and total brook trout. We also quantified a stock-recruitment relationship for the headwater population and coefficients of variability in mean trout density for all sub-populations over time. Density-dependent regulation was prevalent throughout the study area regardless of stream size. However, density-independent temperature models carried substantial weight and likely reflect the effect of year-to-year variability in water temperature on trout dispersal between cold tributaries and warm main stems. Estimated adult carrying capacities decreased exponentially with increasing stream size from 0.24 trout/m in headwaters to 0.005 trout/m in the main stem. Finally, temporal variance in brook trout population size was lowest in the high-density headwater population, tended to peak in mid-sized streams and declined slightly in the largest streams with the lowest densities. Our results provide support for the hypothesis that local density-dependent processes have a strong control on brook trout dynamics across the entire distribution gradient. However, the mechanisms of regulation likely shift from competition for limited food and space in headwater streams to competition for thermal refugia in larger main stems. It also is likely that source-sink dynamics and dispersal from small headwater habitats may partially influence brook trout population dynamics in the main stem. PMID:24618602

Effects of habitat isolation on pollinator communities and seed set.

PubMed

Steffan-Dewenter, I; Tscharntke, Teja

1999-11-01

Destruction and fragmentation of natural habitats is the major reason for the decreasing biodiversity in the agricultural landscape. Loss of populations may negatively affect biotic interactions and ecosystem stability. Here we tested the hypothesis that habitat fragmentation affects bee populations and thereby disrupts plant-pollinator interactions. We experimentally established small "habitat islands" of two self-incompatible, annual crucifers on eight calcareous grasslands and in the intensively managed agricultural landscape at increasing distances (up to 1000 m) from these species-rich grasslands to measure effects of isolation on both pollinator guilds and seed set, independently from patch size and density, resource availability and genetic erosion of plant populations. Each habitat island consisted of four pots each with one plant of mustard (Sinapis arvensis) and radish (Raphanus sativus). Increasing isolation of the small habitat islands resulted in both decreased abundance and species richness of flower-visiting bees (Hymenoptera: Apoidea). Mean body size of flower-visiting wild bees was larger on isolated than on nonisolated habitat islands emphasizing the positive correlation of body size and foraging distance. Abundance of flower-visiting honeybees depended on the distance from the nearest apiary. Abundance of other flower visitors such as hover flies did not change with increasing isolation. Number of seeds per fruit and per plant decreased significantly with increasing distance from the nearest grassland for both mustard and radish. Mean seed set per plant was halved at a distance of approximately 1000 m for mustard and at 250 m for radish. In accordance with expectations, seed set per plant was positively correlated with the number of flower-visiting bees. We found no evidence for resource limitation in the case of mustard and only marginal effects for radish. We conclude that habitat connectivity is essential to maintain not only abundant and diverse bee communities, but also plant-pollinator interactions in economically important crops and endangered wild plants.

Decision Accuracy and the Role of Spatial Interaction in Opinion Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torney, Colin J.; Levin, Simon A.; Couzin, Iain D.

2013-04-01

The opinions and actions of individuals within interacting groups are frequently determined by both social and personal information. When sociality (or the pressure to conform) is strong and individual preferences are weak, groups will remain cohesive until a consensus decision is reached. When group decisions are subject to a bias, representing for example private information known by some members of the population or imperfect information known by all, then the accuracy achieved for a fixed level of bias will increase with population size. In this work we determine how the scaling between accuracy and group size can be related to the microscopic properties of the decision-making process. By simulating a spatial model of opinion dynamics we show that the relationship between the instantaneous fraction of leaders in the population ( L), system size ( N), and accuracy depends on the frequency of individual opinion switches and the level of population viscosity. When social mixing is slow, and individual opinion changes are frequent, accuracy is determined by the absolute number of informed individuals. As mixing rates increase, or the rate of opinion updates decrease, a transition occurs to a regime where accuracy is determined by the value of L√{ N}. We investigate the transition between different scaling regimes analytically by examining a well-mixed limit.

Effects of Freshwater Discharge in Sandy Beach Populations: The Mole Crab Emerita brasiliensis in Uruguay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lercari, D.; Defeo, O.

1999-10-01

Sandy beaches are ecosystems which are heavily affected by human activities. An example of this is freshwater discharges, which are known to change salinity, temperature and nutrient regimes and degrade nearshore environments. However, the effects of this kind of disturbance on sandy beach fauna have been little studied. This paper reports the spatial effects of a man-made freshwater canal discharge on the population structure, abundance and reproductive characteristics of the sandy beach mole crab Emerita brasiliensis. Along the 22 km of sandy beach sampled, the mole crab showed a marked longshore variability in population structure and abundance. Abundance of different population components (juveniles, males, females and ovigerous females) significantly decreased towards the canal. Population structure by sex and size, individual weight, fecundity and female maturity patterns at size also displayed a non-linear response to the distance from the freshwater discharge. Only the size structure of males did not follow this pattern. For males, spatial heterogeneity enhanced the detection of density-dependence at less disturbed sites. The authors conclude that artificial freshwater discharges could significantly influence the distribution, abundance and life-history traits of the biota of sandy beaches, and that further study of these ecosystems should include human activities as important factors affecting spatial and temporal trends. The need to consider different spatial and temporal scales in order to detect the effect of anthropogenically-driven impacts in sandy beach populations is stressed.

Optimal exploitation strategies for an animal population in a stochastic serially correlated environment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, D.R.

1974-01-01

Optimal exploitation strategies were studied for an animal population in a stochastic, serially correlated environment. This is a general case and encompasses a number of important cases as simplifications. Data on the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) were used to explore the exploitation strategies and test several hypotheses because relatively much is known concerning the life history and general ecology of this species and extensive empirical data are available for analysis. The number of small ponds on the central breeding grounds was used as an index to the state of the environment. Desirable properties of an optimal exploitation strategy were defined. A mathematical model was formulated to provide a synthesis of the existing literature, estimates of parameters developed from an analysis of data, and hypotheses regarding the specific effect of exploitation on total survival. Both the literature and the analysis of data were inconclusive concerning the effect of exploitation on survival. Therefore, alternative hypotheses were formulated: (1) exploitation mortality represents a largely additive form of mortality, or (2 ) exploitation mortality is compensatory with other forms of mortality, at least to some threshold level. Models incorporating these two hypotheses were formulated as stochastic dynamic programming models and optimal exploitation strategies were derived numerically on a digital computer. Optimal exploitation strategies were found to exist under rather general conditions. Direct feedback control was an integral component in the optimal decision-making process. Optimal exploitation was found to be substantially different depending upon the hypothesis regarding the effect of exploitation on the population. Assuming that exploitation is largely an additive force of mortality, optimal exploitation decisions are a convex function of the size of the breeding population and a linear or slightly concave function of the environmental conditions. Optimal exploitation under this hypothesis tends to reduce the variance of the size of the population. Under the hypothesis of compensatory mortality forces, optimal exploitation decisions are approximately linearly related to the size of the breeding population. Environmental variables may be somewhat more important than the size of the breeding population to the production of young mallards. In contrast, the size of the breeding population appears to be more important in the exploitation process than is the state of the environment. The form of the exploitation strategy appears to be relatively insensitive to small changes in the production rate. In general, the relative importance of the size of the breeding population may decrease as fecundity increases. The optimal level of exploitation in year t must be based on the observed size of the population and the state of the environment in year t unless the dynamics of the population, the state of the environment, and the result of the exploitation decisions are completely deterministic. Exploitation based on an average harvest, harvest rate, or designed to maintain a constant breeding population size is inefficient.

The effect of area size and predation on the time to extinction of prairie vole populations. simulation studies via SERDYCA: a Spatially-Explicit Individual-Based Model of Rodent Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kostova, T; Carlsen, T

2003-11-21

We present a spatially-explicit individual-based computational model of rodent dynamics, customized for the prairie vole species, M. Ochrogaster. The model is based on trophic relationships and represents important features such as territorial competition, mating behavior, density-dependent predation and dispersal out of the modeled spatial region. Vegetation growth and vole fecundity are dependent on climatic components. The results of simulations show that the model correctly predicts the overall temporal dynamics of the population density. Time-series analysis shows a very good match between the periods corresponding to the peak population density frequencies predicted by the model and the ones reported in themore » literature. The model is used to study the relation between persistence, landscape area and predation. We introduce the notions of average time to extinction (ATE) and persistence frequency to quantify persistence. While the ATE decreases with decrease of area, it is a bell-shaped function of the predation level: increasing for 'small' and decreasing for 'large' predation levels.« less

Genetic composition of captive panda population.

PubMed

Yang, Jiandong; Shen, Fujun; Hou, Rong; Da, Yang

2016-10-03

A major function of the captive panda population is to preserve the genetic diversity of wild panda populations in their natural habitats. Understanding the genetic composition of the captive panda population in terms of genetic contributions from the wild panda populations provides necessary knowledge for breeding plans to preserve the genetic diversity of the wild panda populations. The genetic contributions from different wild populations to the captive panda population were highly unbalanced, with Qionglai accounting for 52.2 % of the captive panda gene pool, followed by Minshan with 21.5 %, Qinling with 10.6 %, Liangshan with 8.2 %, and Xiaoxiangling with 3.6 %, whereas Daxiangling, which had similar population size as Xiaoxiangling, had no genetic representation in the captive population. The current breeding recommendations may increase the contribution of some small wild populations at the expense of decreasing the contributions of other small wild populations, i.e., increasing the Xiaoxiangling contribution while decreasing the contribution of Liangshan, or sharply increasing the Qinling contribution while decreasing the contributions of Xiaoxiangling and Liangshan, which were two of the three smallest wild populations and were already severely under-represented in the captive population. We developed three habitat-controlled breeding plans that could increase the genetic contributions from the smallest wild populations to 6.7-11.2 % for Xiaoxiangling, 11.5-12.3 % for Liangshan and 12.9-20.0 % for Qinling among the offspring of one breeding season while reducing the risk of hidden inbreeding due to related founders from the same habitat undetectable by pedigree data. The three smallest wild panda populations of Daxiangling, Xiaoxiangling and Liangshan either had no representation or were severely unrepresented in the current captive panda population. By incorporating the breeding goal of increasing the genetic contributions from the smallest wild populations into breeding plans, the severely under-represented small wild populations in the current captive panda population could be increased steadily for the near future.

Effects of habitat fragmentation and disturbance on howler monkeys: a review.

PubMed

Arroyo-Rodríguez, Víctor; Dias, Pedro Américo D

2010-01-01

We examined the literature on the effects of habitat fragmentation and disturbance on howler monkeys (genus Alouatta) to (1) identify different threats that may affect howlers in fragmented landscapes; (2) review specific predictions developed in fragmentation theory and (3) identify the empirical evidence supporting these predictions. Although howlers are known for their ability to persist in both conserved and disturbed conditions, we found evidence that they are negatively affected by high levels of habitat loss, fragmentation and degradation. Patch size appears to be the main factor constraining populations in fragmented habitats, probably because patch size is positively related to food availability, and negatively related to anthropogenic pressures, physiological stress and parasite loads. Patch isolation is not a strong predictor of either patch occupancy or population size in howlers, a result that may be related to the ability of howlers to move among forest patches. Thus, we propose that it is probable that habitat loss has larger consistent negative effects on howler populations than habitat fragmentation per se. In general, food availability decreases with patch size, not only due to habitat loss, but also because the density of big trees, plant species richness and howlers' home range size are lower in smaller patches, where howlers' population densities are commonly higher. However, it is unclear which vegetation attributes have the biggest influence on howler populations. Similarly, our knowledge is still limited concerning the effects of postfragmentation threats (e.g. hunting and logging) on howlers living in forest patches, and how several endogenous threats (e.g. genetic diversity, physiological stress, and parasitism) affect the distribution, population structure and persistence of howlers. More long-term studies with comparable methods are necessary to quantify some of the patterns discussed in this review, and determine through meta-analyses whether there are significant inter-specific differences in species' responses to habitat loss and fragmentation. (c) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Reproductive Declines in an Endangered Seabird: Cause for Concern or Signs of Conservation Success?

PubMed Central

Schuetz, Justin

2011-01-01

Collection and analysis of demographic data play a critical role in monitoring and management of endangered taxa. I analyzed long-term clutch size and fledgling productivity data for California least tern (Sternula antillarum browni), a federally endangered subspecies that has recently become a candidate for down-listing. While the breeding population grew from approximately 1,253 to 7,241 pairs (578%) during the study period (1988–2009) both clutch size and fledgling productivity declined. Clutch size decreased by approximately 0.27 eggs (14%) from 1990–2004 then showed a moderate increase of 0.11 eggs from 2004–2009. Estimates of fledgling productivity showed a similar pattern of decline and moderate increase even after controlling for clutch size. Sea surface temperature anomalies, an index of El Niño-Southern Oscillation activity, did not influence clutch size but were associated with fledgling productivity through a non-linear relationship. Both clutch size and fledgling productivity increased with latitude, potentially indicating a gradient of life-history trade-offs. Random site effects explained little of the overall variation in clutch size (3%) or fledgling productivity (<1%) suggesting that site characteristics beyond those associated with latitude had little bearing on either measure of reproduction. Despite intensive monitoring and management, causes of variation in key demographic parameters remain poorly understood. Long-term declines in clutch size and fledgling productivity may reflect: 1) reduced food availability, 2) increased density-dependent competition, and/or 3) age-dependent reproduction coupled with a shifting population age-structure. Until the mechanisms shaping demographic parameters and population change are better understood, the success of past management and the probability of ongoing recovery will remain difficult to characterize. PMID:21559287

Reevaluating geographic variation in life-history traits of a widespread Nearctic amphibian

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davenport, Jon M.; Hossack, Blake R.

2016-01-01

Animals from cold environments are usually larger than animals from warm environments, which often produce clines in body size. Because variation in body size can lead to trade-offs between growth and reproduction, life-history traits should also vary across climatic gradients. To determine if life-history traits of wood frogs Rana sylvatica vary with climate, we examined female and male body length, clutch size, and ovum size from 37 locations across an unprecedented 32° of latitude. In conflict with recent research, body size, and ovum size decreased in cold climates and at higher latitudes. Clutch size did not vary with climate or latitude, but reproductive effort (clutch size:female size) did, suggesting selection for a life-history traits that favors maximizing propagule number over propagule size in cold climates. With accelerating climate change that will expose populations to novel environmental conditions, it is important to identify the limits of adaptation, which can be informed by greater understanding of variation in life-history traits.

Quantifying Temporal Genomic Erosion in Endangered Species.

PubMed

Díez-Del-Molino, David; Sánchez-Barreiro, Fatima; Barnes, Ian; Gilbert, M Thomas P; Dalén, Love

2018-03-01

Many species have undergone dramatic population size declines over the past centuries. Although stochastic genetic processes during and after such declines are thought to elevate the risk of extinction, comparative analyses of genomic data from several endangered species suggest little concordance between genome-wide diversity and current population sizes. This is likely because species-specific life-history traits and ancient bottlenecks overshadow the genetic effect of recent demographic declines. Therefore, we advocate that temporal sampling of genomic data provides a more accurate approach to quantify genetic threats in endangered species. Specifically, genomic data from predecline museum specimens will provide valuable baseline data that enable accurate estimation of recent decreases in genome-wide diversity, increases in inbreeding levels, and accumulation of deleterious genetic variation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effects of body size and climate on post-weaning survival of elephant seals at Heard Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

McMahon, Clive R; New, Leslie; Fairley, E.J.; Hindell, M.A.; Burton, H.R.

2015-01-01

The population size of southern elephant seals in the southern Indian and Pacific Oceans decreased precipitously between the 1950s and 1990s. To investigate the reasons behind this, we studied the population of southern elephant seals at Heard Island between 1949 and 1954, using data collected by the early Australian National Antarctic Research Expeditions. Seals were marked and measured (lengths) as weaned pups, and resighted at Heard and Marion islands and in the Vestfold Hills, Antarctica in subsequent years. Bayesian state-space mark-recapture models were used to determine post-weaning survival. Yearling survival was consistently lower (ϕy: 0.28–0.40) than sub-adult survival (ϕs: 0.79–0.83). We found evidence for constant sub-adult survival and time-dependent resight probabilities. Weaning length was an important determinate of yearling survival, with the probability of survival increasing with individual length. There was some suggestion that the Southern Annular Mode influenced yearling survival but this evidence was not strong. Nonetheless, our results provide further support showing that size at independence affects yearling survival. Given the known sensitivity of southern elephant seal populations to survival early in life, it is possible that the decline in population size at Heard Island between the 1950s and 1990s like that at Macquarie Island was due to low yearling survival mediated through maternal ability to produce large pups and the dominant environmental conditions mothers experience during pregnancy.

High population variability and source-sink dynamics in a solitary bee species.

PubMed

Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

2013-06-01

Although solitary bees are considered to play key roles in ecosystem functions, surprisingly few studies have explored their population dynamics. We investigated the population dynamics of a rare, declining, solitary bee (Andrena humilis) in a landscape of 80 km2 in southern Sweden from 2003 to 2011. Only one population was persistent throughout all years studied; most likely this population supplied the surrounding landscape with 11 smaller, temporary local populations. Despite stable pollen availability, the size of the persistent population fluctuated dramatically in a two-year cycle over the nine years, with 490-1230 nests in odd-numbered years and 21-48 nests in even-numbered years. These fluctuations were not significantly related to climatic variables or pollen availability. Nineteen colonization and 14 extinction events were recorded. Occupancy decreased with distance from the persistent population and increased with increasing resource (pollen) availability. There were significant positive correlations between the size of the persistent population and patch occupancy and colonization. Colonizations were generally more common in patches closer to the persistent population, whereas extinctions were independent of distance from the persistent population. Our results highlight the complex population dynamics that exist for this solitary bee species, which could be due to source-sink dynamics, a prolonged diapause, or can represent a bet-hedging strategy to avoid natural enemies and survive in small habitat patches. If large fluctuations in solitary bee populations prove to be widespread, it will have important implications for interpreting ecological relationships, bee conservation, and pollination.

Determining Individual Variation in Growth and Its Implication for Life-History and Population Processes Using the Empirical Bayes Method

PubMed Central

Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Crivelli, Alain J.; Munch, Stephan; Skaug, Hans J.

2014-01-01

The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups) determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth) and (asymptotic size). Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish. PMID:25211603

The study to estimate the floating population in Seoul, Korea.

PubMed

Lee, Geon Woo; Lee, Yong Jin; Kim, Youngeun; Hong, Seung-Han; Kim, Soohwaun; Kim, Jeong Soo; Lee, Jong Tae; Shin, Dong Chun; Lim, Youngwook

2017-01-01

Traffic-related pollutants have been reported to increase the morbidity of respiratory diseases. In order to apply management policies related to motor vehicles, studies of the floating population living in cities are important. The rate of metro rail transit system use by passengers residing in Seoul is about 54% of total public transportation use. Through the rate of metro use, the people-flow ratios in each administrative area were calculated. By applying a people-flow ratio based on the official census count, the floating population in 25 regions was calculated. The reduced level of deaths among the floating population in 14 regions having the roadside monitoring station was calculated as assuming a 20% reduction of mobile emission based on the policy. The hourly floating population size was calculated by applying the hourly population ratio to the regional population size as specified in the official census count. The number of people moving from 5 a.m. to next day 1 a.m. could not be precisely calculated when the population size was applied, but no issue was observed that would trigger a sizable shift in the rate of population change. The three patterns of increase, decrease, and no change of population in work hours were analyzed. When the concentration of particulate matter less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter was reduced by 20%, the number of excess deaths varied according to the difference of the floating population. The effective establishment of directions to manage the pollutants in cities should be carried out by considering the floating population. Although the number of people using the metro system is only an estimate, this disadvantage was supplemented by calculating inflow and outflow ratio of metro users per time in the total floating population in each region. Especially, 54% of metro usage in public transport causes high reliability in application.

Demographic stochasticity in small remnant populations of the declining distylous plant Primula veris

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kery, M.; Matthies, D.; Schmid, B.

2003-01-01

We studied ecological consequences of distyly for the declining perennial plant Primula veris in the Swiss Jura. Distyly favours cross-fertilization and avoids inbreeding, but may lead to pollen limitation and reduced reproduction if morph frequencies deviate from 50 %. Disassortative mating is promoted by the reciprocal position of stigmas and anthers in the two morphs (pin and thrum) and by intramorph incompatibility and should result in equal frequencies of morphs at equilibrium. However, deviations could arise because of demographic stochasticity, the lower intra-morph incompatibility of the pin morph, and niche differentiation between morphs. Demographic stochasticity should result in symmetric deviations from an even morph frequency among populations and in increased deviations with decreasing population size. If crosses between pins occurred, these would only generate pins, and this could result in a pin-bias of morph frequencies in general and in small populations in particular. If the morphs have different niches, morph frequencies should be related to environmental factors, morphs might be spatially segregated, and morphological differences between morphs would be expected. We tested these hypotheses in the declining distylous P. veris. We studied morph frequencies in relation to environmental conditions and population size, spatial segregation in field populations, morphological differences between morphs, and growth responses to nutrient addition. Morph frequencies in 76 populations with 1 - 80000 flowering plants fluctuated symmetrically about 50 %. Deviations from 50 % were much larger in small populations, and sixof the smallest populations had lost one morph altogether. In contrast, morph frequencies were neither related to population size nor to 17 measures of environmental conditions. We found no spatial segregation or morphological differences in the field or in the common garden. The results suggest that demographic stochasticity caused deviations of the morph ratiofrom unity in small populations. Demographic stochasticity was probably caused by the random elimination of plants during the fragmentation of formerly large continuous populations. Biased morph frequencies may be one of the reasons for the strongly reduced reproduction in small populations of P. veris.

Geohistorical records indicate no impact of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on oyster body size

PubMed Central

Durham, Stephen R.

2016-01-01

Documentation of the near- and long-term effects of the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill, one of the largest environmental disasters in US history, is still ongoing. We used a novel before-after-control-impact analysis to test the hypothesis that average body size of intertidal populations of the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) inhabiting impacted areas in Louisiana decreased due to increased stress/mortality related to the oil spill. Time-averaged death assemblages of oysters were used to establish a pre-spill baseline of body-size structure for four impacted and four control locations along a 350 km stretch of Louisiana's coastline. Post-spill body sizes were then measured from live oysters at each site in order to evaluate the differences in body size between oiled (i.e. impact) and unoiled (i.e. control) locations before and after the spill. Our results indicate that average body size of oysters remained relatively unchanged after the oil spill. There were also no temporal patterns in temperature, salinity or disease prevalence that could have explained our results. Together, these findings suggest that oysters either recovered rapidly following the immediate impact of the DWH oil spill, or that its impact was not severe enough to influence short-term population dynamics of the oyster beds. PMID:28018663

Experimental evaluation of size-dependent predation by adult post-spawned rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) on larval lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zydlewski, Joseph D.; Gorsky, Dimitry

2013-01-01

Introduced landlocked Rainbow Smelt Osmerus mordax are hypothesized to be a major factor in the decline of Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis populations in many lakes. We sought to identify the size of Lake Whitefish preyed upon by adult Rainbow Smelt and how the efficiency of Rainbow Smelt predation changes Lake Whitefish ontogeny. In a laboratory setting, we exposed larval Lake Whitefish of increasing sizes to groups of seven Rainbow Smelt (>100 mm) for a 1-h period and observed predation behaviors and efficiencies. In each trial, the group of Rainbow Smelt consumed at least one larval Lake Whitefish, which were up to 45 mm in length (up to 89% of Rainbow Smelt gape width). Predation efficiency, the total number of Lake Whitefish consumed by Rainbow Smelt during trials, was 100% after Lake Whitefish hatching and followed a decreasing sigmoidal response to increasing lengths of Lake Whitefish. The apparent predatory window of Rainbow Smelt on Lake Whitefish is from Lake Whitefish size at hatch (∼12 mm) to approximately 34 mm. Rainbow Smelt generally required multiple attacks to capture a single Lake Whitefish. The capture efficiencies of Rainbow Smelt decreased from 30% as Lake Whitefish length increased and were highly variable within each Lake Whitefish size-group. The overall impact that Rainbow Smelt predation will have on Lake Whitefish populations is dependent on the growth rate of Lake Whitefish, environmental conditions that cause the Lake Whitefish hatching period to coincide with Rainbow Smelt spawning events, and the degree of overlap in habitat use between spawning Rainbow Smelt, nonspawning subadult Rainbow Smelt, and hatching Lake Whitefish.

Modeling the consequences of the demise and potential recovery of a keystone-species: wild rabbits and avian scavengers in Mediterranean landscapes

PubMed Central

Cortés-Avizanda, Ainara; Colomer, Maria Àngels; Margalida, Antoni; Ceballos, Olga; Donázar, José Antonio

2015-01-01

Restoration of demised keystone-species populations is an overriding concern in conservation biology. However, since no population is independent of its environment, progress is needed in predicting the efficacy of restoration in unstable ecological contexts. Here, by means of Population Dynamics P-system Models (PDP), we studied long-term changes in the population size of Egyptian vultures (Neophron percnopterus) inhabiting a Natural Park, northern Spain, to changes in the numbers of wild rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus), a keystone-species of Mediterranean ecosystems that have suffered >90% population decline after a hemorrhagic disease outbreak. Low availability of rabbit carcasses leads Egyptian vultures to extend their foraging activities to unprotected areas with higher non-natural mortality whereas growing numbers of griffon vultures (Gyps fulvus), a dominant competitor, progressively monopolize trophic resources resulting in a focal population decrease. Modeling shows that, even if keystone-species populations recover in core protected areas, the return to the original studied population size may be unfeasible, due to both the high non-natural mortality rates in humanized areas and long-term changes in the scavenger guild structure. Policy decisions aimed to restore keystone-species should rely on holistic approaches integrating the effects of spatial heterogeneity on both producer and consumer populations as well as within-guild processes. PMID:26593338

Potential causes and consequences of decreased body size in field populations of Coccinella novemnotata

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Coccinella novemnotata, the nine-spotted ladybeetle, was historically one of the most common ladybeetles across the US and southern Canada. In the 1980’s it became extremely rare in Eastern North America and has remained rare, as it is now also throughout North America. In 2008 adult C. novemnotat...

Effects of geodemographic profiles on healthcare service utilization: a case study on cardiac care in Ontario, Canada

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Although literature has associated geodemographic factors with healthcare service utilization, little is known about how these factors — such as population size, age profile, service accessibility, and educational profile — interact to influence service utilization. This study fills this gap in the literature by examining both the direct and the moderating effects of geodemographic profiles on the utilization of cardiac surgery services. Methods We aggregated secondary data obtained from Statistics Canada and Cardiac Care Network of Ontario to derive the geodemographic profiles of Ontario and the corresponding cardiac surgery service utilization in the years between 2004 and 2007. We conducted a two-step test using Partial Least Squares-based structural equation modeling to investigate the relationships between geodemographic profiles and healthcare service utilization. Results Population size and age profile have direct positive effects on service utilization (β=0.737, p<0.01; β=0.284, p<0.01, respectively), whereas service accessibility is negatively associated with service utilization (β=−0.210, p<0.01). Service accessibility decreases the effect of population size on service utilization (β=−0.606, p<0.01), and educational profile weakens the effects of population size and age profile on service utilization (β=−0.595, p<0.01; β=−0.286, p<0.01, respectively). Conclusions In this study, we found that (1) service accessibility has a moderating effect on the relationship between population size and service utilization, and (2) educational profile has moderating effects on both the relationship between population size and service utilization, and the relationship between age profile and service utilization. Our findings suggest that reducing regional disparities in healthcare service utilization should take into account the interaction of geodemographic factors such as service accessibility and education. In addition, the allocation of resources for a particular healthcare service in one area should consider the geographic distribution of the same services in neighboring areas, as patients may be willing to utilize these services in areas not far from where they reside. PMID:23816201

Fifty years of population growth and absorption of labor in Brazil: from 1950 to 2000.

PubMed

Paiva, P D

1997-01-01

For a long time, the Brazilian population has grown at a relatively high rate, and only recently has the process of demographic transition intensified in the country. While the associated decline in fertility could result in a future decline in the size of the working-age population, it could also lead to an increase in female participation in the labor market. Brazil's economy is performing well, with gross domestic product (GDP) growing at an average annual rate of 7.1% during 1947-80. Marked growth in industrial employment opportunities has accompanied this growth in GDP. The size of the informal sector, however, has not decreased in similar proportion, while the 1981-83 economic crisis caused urban employment levels to drop, especially in industry and construction. Moreover, the level of rural-urban migration has increased and the agricultural employment index has fallen. The author evaluates past growth trends of the Economically Active Population (EAP) and of employment in Brazil, and assesses the potential growth of the labor force until the year 2000.

Habitat fragmentation, vole population fluctuations, and the ROMPA hypothesis: An experimental test using model landscapes.

PubMed

Batzli, George O

2016-11-01

Increased habitat fragmentation leads to smaller size of habitat patches and to greater distance between patches. The ROMPA hypothesis (ratio of optimal to marginal patch area) uniquely links vole population fluctuations to the composition of the landscape. It states that as ROMPA decreases (fragmentation increases), vole population fluctuations will increase (including the tendency to display multi-annual cycles in abundance) because decreased proportions of optimal habitat result in greater population declines and longer recovery time after a harsh season. To date, only comparative observations in the field have supported the hypothesis. This paper reports the results of the first experimental test. I used prairie voles, Microtus ochrogaster, and mowed grassland to create model landscapes with 3 levels of ROMPA (high with 25% mowed, medium with 50% mowed and low with 75% mowed). As ROMPA decreased, distances between patches of favorable habitat (high cover) increased owing to a greater proportion of unfavorable (mowed) habitat. Results from the first year with intensive live trapping indicated that the preconditions for operation of the hypothesis existed (inversely density dependent emigration and, as ROMPA decreased, increased per capita mortality and decreased per capita movement between optimal patches). Nevertheless, contrary to the prediction of the hypothesis that populations in landscapes with high ROMPA should have the lowest variability, 5 years of trapping indicated that variability was lowest with medium ROMPA. The design of field experiments may never be perfect, but these results indicate that the ROMPA hypothesis needs further rigorous testing. © 2016 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Does boat traffic cause displacement of fish in estuaries?

PubMed

Becker, Alistair; Whitfield, Alan K; Cowley, Paul D; Järnegren, Johanna; Næsje, Tor F

2013-10-15

Estuaries are increasingly under threat from a variety of human impacts. Recreational and commercial boat traffic in urban areas may represent a significant disturbance to fish populations and have particularly adverse effects in spatially restricted systems such as estuaries. We examined the effects of passing boats on the abundance of different sized fish within the main navigation channel of an estuary using high resolution sonar (DIDSON). Both the smallest (100-300 mm) and largest (>501 mm) size classes had no change in their abundance following the passage of boats. However, a decrease in abundance of mid-sized fish (301-500 mm) occurred following the passage of boats. This displacement may be attributed to a number of factors including noise, bubbles and the rapidly approaching object of the boat itself. In highly urbanised estuarine systems, regular displacement by boat traffic has the potential to have major negative population level effects on fish assemblages. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Kinship-based politics and the optimal size of kin groups

PubMed Central

Hammel, E. A.

2005-01-01

Kin form important political groups, which change in size and relative inequality with demographic shifts. Increases in the rate of population growth increase the size of kin groups but decrease their inequality and vice versa. The optimal size of kin groups may be evaluated from the marginal political product (MPP) of their members. Culture and institutions affect levels and shapes of MPP. Different optimal group sizes, from different perspectives, can be suggested for any MPP schedule. The relative dominance of competing groups is determined by their MPP schedules. Groups driven to extremes of sustainability may react in Malthusian fashion, including fission and fusion, or in Boserupian fashion, altering social technology to accommodate changes in size. The spectrum of alternatives for actors and groups, shaped by existing institutions and natural and cultural selection, is very broad. Nevertheless, selection may result in survival of particular kinds of political structures. PMID:16091466

Kinship-based politics and the optimal size of kin groups.

PubMed

Hammel, E A

2005-08-16

Kin form important political groups, which change in size and relative inequality with demographic shifts. Increases in the rate of population growth increase the size of kin groups but decrease their inequality and vice versa. The optimal size of kin groups may be evaluated from the marginal political product (MPP) of their members. Culture and institutions affect levels and shapes of MPP. Different optimal group sizes, from different perspectives, can be suggested for any MPP schedule. The relative dominance of competing groups is determined by their MPP schedules. Groups driven to extremes of sustainability may react in Malthusian fashion, including fission and fusion, or in Boserupian fashion, altering social technology to accommodate changes in size. The spectrum of alternatives for actors and groups, shaped by existing institutions and natural and cultural selection, is very broad. Nevertheless, selection may result in survival of particular kinds of political structures.

Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines.

PubMed

Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R; Dirzo, Rodolfo

2017-07-25

The population extinction pulse we describe here shows, from a quantitative viewpoint, that Earth's sixth mass extinction is more severe than perceived when looking exclusively at species extinctions. Therefore, humanity needs to address anthropogenic population extirpation and decimation immediately. That conclusion is based on analyses of the numbers and degrees of range contraction (indicative of population shrinkage and/or population extinctions according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature) using a sample of 27,600 vertebrate species, and on a more detailed analysis documenting the population extinctions between 1900 and 2015 in 177 mammal species. We find that the rate of population loss in terrestrial vertebrates is extremely high-even in "species of low concern." In our sample, comprising nearly half of known vertebrate species, 32% (8,851/27,600) are decreasing; that is, they have decreased in population size and range. In the 177 mammals for which we have detailed data, all have lost 30% or more of their geographic ranges and more than 40% of the species have experienced severe population declines (>80% range shrinkage). Our data indicate that beyond global species extinctions Earth is experiencing a huge episode of population declines and extirpations, which will have negative cascading consequences on ecosystem functioning and services vital to sustaining civilization. We describe this as a "biological annihilation" to highlight the current magnitude of Earth's ongoing sixth major extinction event.

Reweighting anthropometric data using a nearest neighbour approach.

PubMed

Kumar, Kannan Anil; Parkinson, Matthew B

2018-07-01

When designing products and environments, detailed data on body size and shape are seldom available for the specific user population. One way to mitigate this issue is to reweight available data such that they provide an accurate estimate of the target population of interest. This is done by assigning a statistical weight to each individual in the reference data, increasing or decreasing their influence on statistical models of the whole. This paper presents a new approach to reweighting these data. Instead of stratified sampling, the proposed method uses a clustering algorithm to identify relationships between the detailed and reference populations using their height, mass, and body mass index (BMI). The newly weighted data are shown to provide more accurate estimates than traditional approaches. The improved accuracy that accompanies this method provides designers with an alternative to data synthesis techniques as they seek appropriate data to guide their design practice.Practitioner Summary: Design practice is best guided by data on body size and shape that accurately represents the target user population. This research presents an alternative to data synthesis (e.g. regression or proportionality constants) for adapting data from one population for use in modelling another.

Quantifying the Human Impacts on Papua New Guinea Reef Fish Communities across Space and Time.

PubMed

Drew, Joshua A; Amatangelo, Kathryn L; Hufbauer, Ruth A

2015-01-01

Describing the drivers of species loss and of community change are important goals in both conservation and ecology. However, it is difficult to determine whether exploited species decline due to direct effects of harvesting or due to other environmental perturbations brought about by proximity to human populations. Here we quantify differences in species richness of coral reef fish communities along a human population gradient in Papua New Guinea to understand the relative impacts of fishing and environmental perturbation. Using data from published species lists we categorize the reef fishes as either fished or non-fished based on their body size and reports from the published literature. Species diversity for both fished and non-fished groups decreases as the size of the local human population increases, and this relationship is stronger in species that are fished. Additionally, comparison of modern and museum collections show that modern reef communities have proportionally fewer fished species relative to 19th century ones. Together these findings show that the reef fish communities of Papua New Guinea experience multiple anthropogenic stressors and that even at low human population levels targeted species experience population declines across both time and space.

And the Last Shall Be First: Heterochrony and Compensatory Marine Growth in Sea Trout (Salmo trutta)

PubMed Central

Marco-Rius, Francisco; Caballero, Pablo; Morán, Paloma; Garcia de Leaniz, Carlos

2012-01-01

Early juvenile growth is a good indicator of growth later in life in many species because larger than average juveniles tend to have a competitive advantage. However, for migratory species the relationship between juvenile and adult growth remains obscure. We used scale analysis to reconstruct growth trajectories of migratory sea trout (Salmo trutta) from six neighbouring populations, and compared the size individuals attained in freshwater (before migration) with their subsequent growth at sea (after migration). We also calculated the coefficient of variation (CV) to examine how much body size varied across populations and life stages. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that the CV on body size would differ between freshwater and marine environment, perhaps reflecting different trade-offs during ontogeny. Neighbouring sea trout populations differed significantly in time spent at sea and in age-adjusted size of returning adults, but not on size of seaward migration, which was surprisingly uniform and may be indicative of strong selection pressures. The CV on body size decreased significantly over time and was highest during the first 8 months of life (when juvenile mortality is highest) and lowest during the marine phase. Size attained in freshwater was negatively related to growth during the first marine growing season, suggesting the existence of compensatory growth, whereby individuals that grow poorly in freshwater are able to catch up later at sea. Analysis of 61 datasets indicates that negative or no associations between pre- and post-migratory growth are common amongst migratory salmonids. We suggest that despite a widespread selective advantage of large body size in freshwater, freshwater growth is a poor predictor of final body size amongst migratory fish because selection may favour growth heterochrony during transitions to a novel environment, and marine compensatory growth may negate any initial size advantage acquired in freshwater. PMID:23049680

[Analysis of particle size characteristics of road sediments in Beijing Olympic Park].

PubMed

Li, Hai-yan; Shi, An-bang; Qu, Yang-sheng; Yue, Jing-lin

2014-09-01

Particle size analysis of road sediment collected in October and November in Beijing Olympic Park indicates that most of the sediments are 76-830 μm; the grain size of the sediments in the area of large population flow is mainly coarse but the grain size in the area of large traffic volume is fine relatively while most of the sediments are <300 p.m. Moreover, sediments of size range <300 μm can be easily accumulated on the road with moderate traffic density. The results demonstrate that the effect of pedestrian flow on the composition of the particles is unobvious and the main influences are the traffic density, extensive construction. With the length of dry period increasing, the content of sediments of size range >300 μm decreases and the content of sediments of size range < 150 μm increases, however, the change of the content of sediments of size range 150-300 μm is not obvious. The results indicate that the effectiveness of the road sediment removal depends on the length of dry period, and the accumulation of different size particles varies differently under the different dry days. Compared with the stone road, surface particles can accumulate on the asphalt road more easily as the accumulation of particles is affected by the road material significantly. Therefore, to reduce the urban surface water pollution, it is necessary to improve the design of park road such as using the stone road, which can decrease the roughness of the road.

Demographic Consequences of Gender Discrimination in China: Simulation Analysis of Policy Options.

PubMed

Quanbao, Jiang; Shuzhuo, Li; Marcus W, Feldman

2011-08-01

The large number of missing females in China, a consequence of gender discrimination, is having and will continue to have a profound effect on the country's population development. In this paper, we analyze the causes of this gender discrimination in terms of institutions, culture and, economy, and suggest public policies that might help eliminate gender discrimination. Using a population simulation model, we study the effect of public policies on the sex ratio at birth and excess female child mortality, and the effect of gender discrimination on China's population development. We find that gender discrimination will decrease China's population size, number of births, and working age population, accelerate population aging and exacerbate the male marriage squeeze. These results provide theoretical support for suggesting that the government enact and implement public policies aimed at eliminating gender discrimination.

Demographic Consequences of Gender Discrimination in China: Simulation Analysis of Policy Options

PubMed Central

Quanbao, Jiang; Marcus W., Feldman

2013-01-01

The large number of missing females in China, a consequence of gender discrimination, is having and will continue to have a profound effect on the country's population development. In this paper, we analyze the causes of this gender discrimination in terms of institutions, culture and, economy, and suggest public policies that might help eliminate gender discrimination. Using a population simulation model, we study the effect of public policies on the sex ratio at birth and excess female child mortality, and the effect of gender discrimination on China's population development. We find that gender discrimination will decrease China's population size, number of births, and working age population, accelerate population aging and exacerbate the male marriage squeeze. These results provide theoretical support for suggesting that the government enact and implement public policies aimed at eliminating gender discrimination. PMID:24363477

Coral population dynamics across consecutive mass mortality events.

PubMed

Riegl, Bernhard; Purkis, Sam

2015-11-01

Annual coral mortality events due to increased atmospheric heat may occur regularly from the middle of the century and are considered apocalyptic for coral reefs. In the Arabian/Persian Gulf, this situation has already occurred and population dynamics of four widespread corals (Acropora downingi, Porites harrisoni, Dipsastrea pallida, Cyphastrea micropthalma) were examined across the first-ever occurrence of four back-to-back mass mortality events (2009-2012). Mortality was driven by diseases in 2009, bleaching and subsequent diseases in 2010/2011/2012. 2009 reduced P. harrisoni cover and size, the other events increasingly reduced overall cover (2009: -10%; 2010: -20%; 2011: -20%; 2012: -15%) and affected all examined species. Regeneration was only observed after the first disturbance. P. harrisoni and A. downingi severely declined from 2010 due to bleaching and subsequent white syndromes, while D. pallida and P. daedalea declined from 2011 due to bleaching and black-band disease. C. microphthalma cover was not affected. In all species, most large corals were lost while fission due to partial tissue mortality bolstered small size classes. This general shrinkage led to a decrease of coral cover and a dramatic reduction of fecundity. Transition matrices for disturbed and undisturbed conditions were evaluated as Life Table Response Experiment and showed that C. microphthalma changed the least in size-class dynamics and fecundity, suggesting they were 'winners'. In an ordered 'degradation cascade', impacts decreased from the most common to the least common species, leading to step-wise removal of previously dominant species. A potentially permanent shift from high- to low-coral cover with different coral community and size structure can be expected due to the demographic dynamics resultant from the disturbances. Similarities to degradation of other Caribbean and Pacific reefs are discussed. As comparable environmental conditions and mortality patterns must be expected worldwide, demographic collapse of many other coral populations may soon be widespread. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Firearm and Nonfirearm Homicide in 5 South African Cities: A Retrospective Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Thompson, Mary Lou; Myers, Jonathan E.

2014-01-01

Objective. We assessed the effectiveness of South Africa’s Firearm Control Act (FCA), passed in 2000, on firearm homicide rates compared with rates of nonfirearm homicide across 5 South African cities from 2001 to 2005. Methods. We conducted a retrospective population-based study of 37 067 firearm and nonfirearm homicide cases. Generalized linear models helped estimate and compare time trends of firearm and nonfirearm homicides, adjusting for age, sex, race, day of week, city, year of death, and population size. Results. There was a statistically significant decreasing trend regarding firearm homicides from 2001, with an adjusted year-on-year homicide rate ratio of 0.864 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.848, 0.880), representing a decrease of 13.6% per annum. The year-on-year decrease in nonfirearm homicide rates was also significant, but considerably lower at 0.976 (95% CI = 0.954, 0.997). Results suggest that 4585 (95% CI = 4427, 4723) lives were saved across 5 cities from 2001 to 2005 because of the FCA. Conclusions. Strength, timing and consistent decline suggest stricter gun control mediated by the FCA accounted for a significant decrease in homicide overall, and firearm homicide in particular, during the study period. PMID:24432917

Modeling of particle agglomeration in nanofluids

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krishna, K. Hari; Neti, S.; Oztekin, A.

2015-03-07

Agglomeration strongly influences the stability or shelf life of nanofluid. The present computational and experimental study investigates the rate of agglomeration quantitatively. Agglomeration in nanofluids is attributed to the net effect of various inter-particle interaction forces. For the nanofluid considered here, a net inter-particle force depends on the particle size, volume fraction, pH, and electrolyte concentration. A solution of the discretized and coupled population balance equations can yield particle sizes as a function of time. Nanofluid prepared here consists of alumina nanoparticles with the average particle size of 150 nm dispersed in de-ionized water. As the pH of the colloid wasmore » moved towards the isoelectric point of alumina nanofluids, the rate of increase of average particle size increased with time due to lower net positive charge on particles. The rate at which the average particle size is increased is predicted and measured for different electrolyte concentration and volume fraction. The higher rate of agglomeration is attributed to the decrease in the electrostatic double layer repulsion forces. The rate of agglomeration decreases due to increase in the size of nano-particle clusters thus approaching zero rate of agglomeration when all the clusters are nearly uniform in size. Predicted rates of agglomeration agree adequate enough with the measured values; validating the mathematical model and numerical approach is employed.« less

When larger brains do not have more neurons: increased numbers of cells are compensated by decreased average cell size across mouse individuals

PubMed Central

Herculano-Houzel, Suzana; Messeder, Débora J.; Fonseca-Azevedo, Karina; Pantoja, Nilma A.

2015-01-01

There is a strong trend toward increased brain size in mammalian evolution, with larger brains composed of more and larger neurons than smaller brains across species within each mammalian order. Does the evolution of increased numbers of brain neurons, and thus larger brain size, occur simply through the selection of individuals with more and larger neurons, and thus larger brains, within a population? That is, do individuals with larger brains also have more, and larger, neurons than individuals with smaller brains, such that allometric relationships across species are simply an extension of intraspecific scaling? Here we show that this is not the case across adult male mice of a similar age. Rather, increased numbers of neurons across individuals are accompanied by increased numbers of other cells and smaller average cell size of both types, in a trade-off that explains how increased brain mass does not necessarily ensue. Fundamental regulatory mechanisms thus must exist that tie numbers of neurons to numbers of other cells and to average cell size within individual brains. Finally, our results indicate that changes in brain size in evolution are not an extension of individual variation in numbers of neurons, but rather occur through step changes that must simultaneously increase numbers of neurons and cause cell size to increase, rather than decrease. PMID:26082686

When larger brains do not have more neurons: increased numbers of cells are compensated by decreased average cell size across mouse individuals.

PubMed

Herculano-Houzel, Suzana; Messeder, Débora J; Fonseca-Azevedo, Karina; Pantoja, Nilma A

2015-01-01

There is a strong trend toward increased brain size in mammalian evolution, with larger brains composed of more and larger neurons than smaller brains across species within each mammalian order. Does the evolution of increased numbers of brain neurons, and thus larger brain size, occur simply through the selection of individuals with more and larger neurons, and thus larger brains, within a population? That is, do individuals with larger brains also have more, and larger, neurons than individuals with smaller brains, such that allometric relationships across species are simply an extension of intraspecific scaling? Here we show that this is not the case across adult male mice of a similar age. Rather, increased numbers of neurons across individuals are accompanied by increased numbers of other cells and smaller average cell size of both types, in a trade-off that explains how increased brain mass does not necessarily ensue. Fundamental regulatory mechanisms thus must exist that tie numbers of neurons to numbers of other cells and to average cell size within individual brains. Finally, our results indicate that changes in brain size in evolution are not an extension of individual variation in numbers of neurons, but rather occur through step changes that must simultaneously increase numbers of neurons and cause cell size to increase, rather than decrease.

The Effect of Latitudinal Variation on Shrimp Reproductive Strategies.

PubMed

van de Kerk, Madelon; Jones Littles, Chanda; Saucedo, Omar; Lorenzen, Kai

2016-01-01

Reproductive strategies comprise the timing and frequency of reproductive events and the number of offspring per reproductive event, depending on factors such as climate conditions. Therefore, species that exhibit plasticity in the allocation of reproductive effort can alter their behavior in response to climate change. Studying how the reproductive strategy of species varies along the latitudinal gradient can help us understand and predict how they will respond to climate change. We investigated the effects of the temporal allocation of reproductive effort on the population size of brown shrimp (Farfantepenaeus aztecus) along a latitudinal gradient. Multiple shrimp species exhibit variation in their reproductive strategies, and given the economic importance of brown shrimp to the commercial fishing sector of the Unites States, changes in the timing of their reproduction could have significant economic and social consequences. We used a stage-based, density-dependent matrix population model tailored to the life history of brown shrimp. Shrimp growth rates and environmental carrying capacity were varied based on the seasonal climate conditions at different latitudes, and we estimated the population size at equilibrium. The length of the growing season increased with decreasing latitude and the reproductive strategy leading to the highest population size changed from one annual birth pulse with high reproductive output to continuous low-output reproduction. Hence, our model confirms the classical paradigm of continuous reproduction at low latitudes, with increased seasonality of the breeding period towards the poles. Our results also demonstrate the potential for variation in climate to affect the optimal reproductive strategy for achieving maximum population sizes. Certainly, understanding these dynamics may inform more comprehensive management strategies for commercially important species like brown shrimp.

[Fifty years of population growth and absorbing manual labor in Brazil, 1950-2000].

PubMed

Paiva, P D

1986-01-01

The economically active population has grown rapidly in Brazil, resulting either from population growth or increased female participation in the work force. This rhythm of growth will continue at least until the end of this century. The authors suggest that the impact of the recent decline in fertility will be moderate and will only affect the younger age groups. Despite the rapid growth of employment in the processing industry, the relative size of the so-called informal sector has remained stable since 1950. It is further predicted that, given the economically active population's rate of growth and the decrease in employment in agriculture, there will be a great demand for urban employment in the next 20 years.

In Vivo Single-Cell Fluorescence and Size Scaling of Phytoplankton Chlorophyll Content.

PubMed

Álvarez, Eva; Nogueira, Enrique; López-Urrutia, Ángel

2017-04-01

In unicellular phytoplankton, the size scaling exponent of chlorophyll content per cell decreases with increasing light limitation. Empirical studies have explored this allometry by combining data from several species, using average values of pigment content and cell size for each species. The resulting allometry thus includes phylogenetic and size scaling effects. The possibility of measuring single-cell fluorescence with imaging-in-flow cytometry devices allows the study of the size scaling of chlorophyll content at both the inter- and intraspecific levels. In this work, the changing allometry of chlorophyll content was estimated for the first time for single phytoplankton populations by using data from a series of incubations with monocultures exposed to different light levels. Interspecifically, our experiments confirm previous modeling and experimental results of increasing size scaling exponents with increasing irradiance. A similar pattern was observed intraspecifically but with a larger variability in size scaling exponents. Our results show that size-based processes and geometrical approaches explain variations in chlorophyll content. We also show that the single-cell fluorescence measurements provided by imaging-in-flow devices can be applied to field samples to understand the changes in the size dependence of chlorophyll content in response to environmental variables affecting primary production. IMPORTANCE The chlorophyll concentrations in phytoplankton register physiological adjustments in cellular pigmentation arising mainly from changes in light conditions. The extent of these adjustments is constrained by the size of the phytoplankton cells, even within single populations. Hence, variations in community chlorophyll derived from photoacclimation are also dependent on the phytoplankton size distribution. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

In Vivo Single-Cell Fluorescence and Size Scaling of Phytoplankton Chlorophyll Content

PubMed Central

Nogueira, Enrique; López-Urrutia, Ángel

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT In unicellular phytoplankton, the size scaling exponent of chlorophyll content per cell decreases with increasing light limitation. Empirical studies have explored this allometry by combining data from several species, using average values of pigment content and cell size for each species. The resulting allometry thus includes phylogenetic and size scaling effects. The possibility of measuring single-cell fluorescence with imaging-in-flow cytometry devices allows the study of the size scaling of chlorophyll content at both the inter- and intraspecific levels. In this work, the changing allometry of chlorophyll content was estimated for the first time for single phytoplankton populations by using data from a series of incubations with monocultures exposed to different light levels. Interspecifically, our experiments confirm previous modeling and experimental results of increasing size scaling exponents with increasing irradiance. A similar pattern was observed intraspecifically but with a larger variability in size scaling exponents. Our results show that size-based processes and geometrical approaches explain variations in chlorophyll content. We also show that the single-cell fluorescence measurements provided by imaging-in-flow devices can be applied to field samples to understand the changes in the size dependence of chlorophyll content in response to environmental variables affecting primary production. IMPORTANCE The chlorophyll concentrations in phytoplankton register physiological adjustments in cellular pigmentation arising mainly from changes in light conditions. The extent of these adjustments is constrained by the size of the phytoplankton cells, even within single populations. Hence, variations in community chlorophyll derived from photoacclimation are also dependent on the phytoplankton size distribution. PMID:28115378

The mutation-drift balance in spatially structured populations.

PubMed

Schneider, David M; Martins, Ayana B; de Aguiar, Marcus A M

2016-08-07

In finite populations the action of neutral mutations is balanced by genetic drift, leading to a stationary distribution of alleles that displays a transition between two different behaviors. For small mutation rates most individuals will carry the same allele at equilibrium, whereas for high mutation rates of the alleles will be randomly distributed with frequencies close to one half for a biallelic gene. For well-mixed haploid populations the mutation threshold is μc=1/2N, where N is the population size. In this paper we study how spatial structure affects this mutation threshold. Specifically, we study the stationary allele distribution for populations placed on regular networks where connected nodes represent potential mating partners. We show that the mutation threshold is sensitive to spatial structure only if the number of potential mates is very small. In this limit, the mutation threshold decreases substantially, increasing the diversity of the population at considerably low mutation rates. Defining kc as the degree of the network for which the mutation threshold drops to half of its value in well-mixed populations we show that kc grows slowly as a function of the population size, following a power law. Our calculations and simulations are based on the Moran model and on a mapping between the Moran model with mutations and the voter model with opinion makers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population density, sex ratio, body size and fluctuating asymmetry of Ceroglossus chilensis (Carabidae) in the fragmented Maulino forest and surrounding pine plantations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henríquez, Paula; Donoso, Denise S.; Grez, Audrey A.

2009-11-01

Habitat fragmentation results in new environmental conditions that may stress resident populations. Such stress may be reflected in demographical or morphological changes in the individuals inhabiting those landscapes. This study evaluates the effects of fragmentation of the Maulino forest on population density, sex ratio, body size, and fluctuating asymmetry (FA) of the endemic carabid Ceroglossus chilensis. Individuals of C. chilensis were collected during 2006 in five locations at Los Queules National Reserve (continuous forest), in five forest fragments and in five areas of surrounding pine plantations (matrix). In each location, once a season, 40 pitfall traps (20 in the centre, 20 in the edge), were opened for 72 h. Population density of C. chilensis was higher in the small fragments than in the pine matrix, with intermediate densities in the continuous forest; sex ratio did not differ significantly from 1:1 in the three habitats. Individuals from the centre of fragments were smaller than those from the centre of continuous forest, and FA did not vary significantly among habitats. These results suggest that small forest fragments maintain dense populations of C. chilensis and therefore they must be considered in conservation strategies. Although the decrease of the body size suggests that small remnants should be connected by managing the structure of the surrounding matrix, facilitating the dispersion of this carabid across the landscape and avoiding possible antagonistic interactions inside small fragments.

Research on impacts of population-related factors on carbon emissions in Beijing from 1984 to 2012

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Yayun; Zhao, Tao; Wang, Yanan, E-mail: wyn3615@126.com

Carbon emissions related to population factors have aroused great attention around the world. A multitude of literature mainly focused on single demographic impacts on environmental issues at the national level, and comprehensive studies concerning population-related factors at a city level are rare. This paper employed STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology) model incorporating PLS (Partial least squares) regression method to examine the influence of population-related factors on carbon emissions in Beijing from 1984 to 2012. Empirically results manifest that urbanization is the paramount driver. Changes in population age structure have significantly positive impacts on carbon emissions,more » and shrinking young population, continuous expansion of working age population and aging population will keep on increasing environmental pressures. Meanwhile, shrinking household size and expanding floating population boost the discharge of carbon emissions. Besides, per capita consumption is an important contributor of carbon emissions, while industry energy intensity is the main inhibitory factor. Based upon these findings and the specific circumstances of Beijing, policies such as promoting clean and renewable energy, improving population quality and advocating low carbon lifestyles should be enhanced to achieve targeted emissions reductions. - Highlights: • We employed the STIRPAT model to identify population-related factors of carbon emissions in Beijing. • Urbanization is the paramount driver of carbon emissions. • Changes in population age structure exert significantly positive impacts on carbon emissions. • Shrinking household size, expanding floating population and improving consumption level increase carbon emissions. • Industry energy intensity decreases carbon emissions.« less

Adaptation to larval crowding in Drosophila ananassae leads to the evolution of population stability.

PubMed

Dey, Snigdhadip; Bose, Joy; Joshi, Amitabh

2012-05-01

Density-dependent selection is expected to lead to population stability, especially if r and K tradeoff. Yet, there is no empirical evidence of adaptation to crowding leading to the evolution of stability. We show that populations of Drosophila ananassae selected for adaptation to larval crowding have higher K and lower r, and evolve greater stability than controls. We also show that increased population growth rates at high density can enhance stability, even in the absence of a decrease in r, by ensuring that the crowding adapted populations do not fall to very low sizes. We discuss our results in the context of traits known to have diverged between the selected and control populations, and compare our results with previous work on the evolution of stability in D. melanogaster. Overall, our results suggest that density-dependent selection may be an important factor promoting the evolution of relatively stable dynamics in natural populations.

Assessing Nutritional Parameters of Brown Bear Diets among Ecosystems Gives Insight into Differences among Populations.

PubMed

López-Alfaro, Claudia; Coogan, Sean C P; Robbins, Charles T; Fortin, Jennifer K; Nielsen, Scott E

2015-01-01

Food habit studies are among the first steps used to understand wildlife-habitat relationships. However, these studies are in themselves insufficient to understand differences in population productivity and life histories, because they do not provide a direct measure of the energetic value or nutritional composition of the complete diet. Here, we developed a dynamic model integrating food habits and nutritional information to assess nutritional parameters of brown bear (Ursus arctos) diets among three interior ecosystems of North America. Specifically, we estimate the average amount of digestible energy and protein (per kilogram fresh diet) content in the diet and across the active season by bears living in western Alberta, the Flathead River (FR) drainage of southeast British Columbia, and the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). As well, we estimate the proportion of energy and protein in the diet contributed by different food items, thereby highlighting important food resources in each ecosystem. Bear diets in Alberta had the lowest levels of digestible protein and energy through all seasons, which might help explain the low reproductive rates of this population. The FR diet had protein levels similar to the recent male diet in the GYE during spring, but energy levels were lower during late summer and fall. Historic and recent diets in GYE had the most energy and protein, which is consistent with their larger body sizes and higher population productivity. However, a recent decrease in consumption of trout (Oncorhynchus clarki), whitebark pine nuts (Pinus albicaulis), and ungulates, particularly elk (Cervus elaphus), in GYE bears has decreased the energy and protein content of their diet. The patterns observed suggest that bear body size and population densities are influenced by seasonal availability of protein an energy, likely due in part to nutritional influences on mass gain and reproductive success.

Assessing Nutritional Parameters of Brown Bear Diets among Ecosystems Gives Insight into Differences among Populations

PubMed Central

López-Alfaro, Claudia; Coogan, Sean C. P.; Robbins, Charles T.; Fortin, Jennifer K.; Nielsen, Scott E.

2015-01-01

Food habit studies are among the first steps used to understand wildlife-habitat relationships. However, these studies are in themselves insufficient to understand differences in population productivity and life histories, because they do not provide a direct measure of the energetic value or nutritional composition of the complete diet. Here, we developed a dynamic model integrating food habits and nutritional information to assess nutritional parameters of brown bear (Ursus arctos) diets among three interior ecosystems of North America. Specifically, we estimate the average amount of digestible energy and protein (per kilogram fresh diet) content in the diet and across the active season by bears living in western Alberta, the Flathead River (FR) drainage of southeast British Columbia, and the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). As well, we estimate the proportion of energy and protein in the diet contributed by different food items, thereby highlighting important food resources in each ecosystem. Bear diets in Alberta had the lowest levels of digestible protein and energy through all seasons, which might help explain the low reproductive rates of this population. The FR diet had protein levels similar to the recent male diet in the GYE during spring, but energy levels were lower during late summer and fall. Historic and recent diets in GYE had the most energy and protein, which is consistent with their larger body sizes and higher population productivity. However, a recent decrease in consumption of trout (Oncorhynchus clarki), whitebark pine nuts (Pinus albicaulis), and ungulates, particularly elk (Cervus elaphus), in GYE bears has decreased the energy and protein content of their diet. The patterns observed suggest that bear body size and population densities are influenced by seasonal availability of protein an energy, likely due in part to nutritional influences on mass gain and reproductive success. PMID:26083536

Low mitochondrial DNA diversity of Japanese Polled and Kuchinoshima feral cattle.

PubMed

Mannen, Hideyuki; Yonesaka, Riku; Noda, Aoi; Shimogiri, Takeshi; Oshima, Ichiro; Katahira, Kiyomi; Kanemaki, Misao; Kunieda, Tetsuo; Inayoshi, Yousuke; Mukai, Fumio; Sasazaki, Shinji

2017-05-01

This study aims to estimate the mitochondrial genetic diversity and structure of Japanese Polled and Kuchinoshima feral cattle, which are maintained in small populations. We determined the mitochondrial DMA (mtDNA) displacement loop (D-loop) sequences for both cattle populations and analyzed these in conjunction with previously published data from Northeast Asian cattle populations. Our findings showed that Japanese native cattle have a predominant, Asian-specific mtDNA haplogroup T4 with high frequencies (0.43-0.81). This excluded Kuchinoshima cattle (32 animals), which had only one mtDNA haplotype belonging to the haplogroup T3. Japanese Polled showed relatively lower mtDNA diversity in the average sequence divergence (0.0020) than other Wagyu breeds (0.0036-0.0047). Japanese Polled have been maintained in a limited area of Yamaguchi, and the population size is now less than 200. Therefore, low mtDNA diversity in the Japanese Polled could be explained by the decreasing population size in the last three decades. We found low mtDNA diversity in both Japanese Polled and Kuchinoshima cattle. The genetic information obtained in this study will be useful for maintaining these populations and for understanding the origin of Japanese native cattle. © 2016 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

Maternal arsenic exposure and birth outcomes: A comprehensive review of the epidemiologic literature focused on drinking water

PubMed Central

Bloom, Michael S.; Surdu, Simona; Neamtiu, Iulia A.; Gurzau, Eugen S.

2015-01-01

Inorganic arsenic (iAs) is a human toxicant to which populations may be exposed through consumption of geogenically contaminated groundwater. A growing body of experimental literature corroborates the reproductive toxicity of iAs; however, the results of human studies are inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a comprehensive review of epidemiologic studies focused on drinking water iAs exposure and birth outcomes to assess the evidence for causality and to make recommendations for future study. We reviewed 18 English language papers assessing birth weight, gestational age, and birth size. Thirteen of the studies were conducted among populations with frequent exposure to high-level groundwater iAs contamination (>10 μg/L) and five studies were conducted in areas without recognized contamination. Most studies comprised small samples and used cross-sectional designs, often with ecologic exposure assessment strategies, although several large prospective investigations and studies with individual-level measurements were also reported. We conclude that: 1) the epidemiologic evidence for an increased risk of low birth weight (<2,500 grams) is insufficient, although there exists limited evidence for birth weight decreases; 2) the evidence for increased preterm delivery is insufficient; and, 3) there exists minimal evidence for decreased birth size. In further investigation of birth weight and size, we recommend incorporation of individual susceptibility measures using appropriate biomarkers, with collection timed to windows of vulnerability and speciated arsenic analysis, as well as consideration of populations exposed primarily to drinking water iAs contamination <10 μg/L. Given the large potential public health impact, additional, high quality epidemiologic studies are necessary to more definitively assess the risk. PMID:24713268

Maternal arsenic exposure and birth outcomes: a comprehensive review of the epidemiologic literature focused on drinking water.

PubMed

Bloom, Michael S; Surdu, Simona; Neamtiu, Iulia A; Gurzau, Eugen S

2014-09-01

Inorganic arsenic (iAs) is a human toxicant to which populations may be exposed through consumption of geogenically contaminated groundwater. A growing body of experimental literature corroborates the reproductive toxicity of iAs; however, the results of human studies are inconsistent. Therefore, we conducted a comprehensive review of epidemiologic studies focused on drinking water iAs exposure and birth outcomes to assess the evidence for causality and to make recommendations for future study. We reviewed 18 English language papers assessing birth weight, gestational age, and birth size. Thirteen of the studies were conducted among populations with frequent exposure to high-level groundwater iAs contamination (>10 μg/L) and five studies were conducted in areas without recognized contamination. Most studies comprised small samples and used cross-sectional designs, often with ecologic exposure assessment strategies, although several large prospective investigations and studies with individual-level measurements were also reported. We conclude that: (1) the epidemiologic evidence for an increased risk of low birth weight (<2500 g) is insufficient, although there exists limited evidence for birth weight decreases; (2) the evidence for increased preterm delivery is insufficient; and, (3) there exists minimal evidence for decreased birth size. In further investigation of birth weight and size, we recommend incorporation of individual susceptibility measures using appropriate biomarkers, with collection timed to windows of vulnerability and speciated arsenic analysis, as well as consideration of populations exposed primarily to drinking water iAs contamination <10 μg/L. Given the large potential public health impact, additional, high quality epidemiologic studies are necessary to more definitively assess the risk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Growth and condition of alewives in Lake Michigan, 1984-2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madenjian, Charles P.; Holuszko, Jeffrey D.; DeSorcie, Timothy J.

2003-01-01

Diets of salmonines in Lake Michigan have been dominated by alewives Alosa pseudoharengus since the 1960s, and information on alewife population dynamics is critical to the management of salmonine fisheries. We monitored alewife size at age and condition (K) at several different locations in Lake Michigan during fall 1984–2001. Alewives were aged by enumerating annuli on otoliths. The results indicated that alewife length at age did not trend upward or downward between 1984 and the late 1990s but decreased from the late 1990s to 2001. Alewife weight at age was relatively constant between 1984 and the mid-1990s but decreased from the mid-1990s to 2001. Mean condition for a given alewife age was, on average, 13.7% higher during 1984–1994 than during 1995–2001. This decline in alewife condition was not a density-dependent response by the alewife population because alewife abundance trended neither upward nor downward during 1984–2001. The decline in alewife condition was possibly due to the lakewide decrease in the abundance of Diporeia spp. during the 1990s. Apparently, the availability of the large-bodied invertebrates Diporeia and Mysis spp. was an important regulator of adult alewife growth because alewives attained a substantially larger size in Lake Michigan, where these invertebrates were relatively important constituents of the adult alewife diet, than in Lake Ontario, where these invertebrates were not readily eaten by adult alewives. For age-2 or older females, mean length was 2–9 mm greater than for males. Alewife size at age and condition were slightly higher on the eastern side of Lake Michigan than on the western side.

Clinical Pathology Reference Intervals for an In-Water Population of Juvenile Loggerhead Sea Turtles (Caretta caretta) in Core Sound, North Carolina, USA

PubMed Central

Kelly, Terra R.; McNeill, Joanne Braun; Avens, Larisa; Hall, April Goodman; Goshe, Lisa R.; Hohn, Aleta A.; Godfrey, Matthew H.; Mihnovets, A. Nicole; Cluse, Wendy M.; Harms, Craig A.

2015-01-01

The loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) is found throughout the waters of the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. It is a protected species throughout much of its range due to threats such as habitat loss, fisheries interactions, hatchling predation, and marine debris. Loggerheads that occur in the southeastern U.S. are listed as “threatened” on the U.S. Endangered Species List, and receive state and federal protection. As part of an on-going population assessment conducted by the National Marine Fisheries Service, samples were collected from juvenile loggerhead sea turtles in Core Sound, North Carolina, between 2004 and 2007 to gain insight on the baseline health of the threatened Northwest Atlantic Ocean population. The aims of the current study were to establish hematologic and biochemical reference intervals for this population, and to assess variation of the hematologic and plasma biochemical analytes by season, water temperature, and sex and size of the turtles. Reference intervals for the clinical pathology parameters were estimated following Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute guidelines. Season, water temperature, sex, and size of the turtles were found to be significant factors of variation for parameter values. Seasonal variation could be attributed to physiological effects of decreasing photoperiod, cooler water temperature, and migration during the fall months. Packed cell volume, total protein, and albumin increased with increasing size of the turtles. The size-related differences in analytes documented in the present study are consistent with other reports of variation in clinical pathology parameters by size and age in sea turtles. As a component of a health assessment of juvenile loggerhead sea turtles in North Carolina, this study will serve as a baseline aiding in evaluation of trends for this population and as a diagnostic tool for assessing the health and prognosis for loggerhead sea turtles undergoing rehabilitation. PMID:25738772

Clinical pathology reference intervals for an in-water population of juvenile loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) in Core Sound, North Carolina, USA.

PubMed

Kelly, Terra R; McNeill, Joanne Braun; Avens, Larisa; Hall, April Goodman; Goshe, Lisa R; Hohn, Aleta A; Godfrey, Matthew H; Mihnovets, A Nicole; Cluse, Wendy M; Harms, Craig A

2015-01-01

The loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) is found throughout the waters of the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans. It is a protected species throughout much of its range due to threats such as habitat loss, fisheries interactions, hatchling predation, and marine debris. Loggerheads that occur in the southeastern U.S. are listed as "threatened" on the U.S. Endangered Species List, and receive state and federal protection. As part of an on-going population assessment conducted by the National Marine Fisheries Service, samples were collected from juvenile loggerhead sea turtles in Core Sound, North Carolina, between 2004 and 2007 to gain insight on the baseline health of the threatened Northwest Atlantic Ocean population. The aims of the current study were to establish hematologic and biochemical reference intervals for this population, and to assess variation of the hematologic and plasma biochemical analytes by season, water temperature, and sex and size of the turtles. Reference intervals for the clinical pathology parameters were estimated following Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute guidelines. Season, water temperature, sex, and size of the turtles were found to be significant factors of variation for parameter values. Seasonal variation could be attributed to physiological effects of decreasing photoperiod, cooler water temperature, and migration during the fall months. Packed cell volume, total protein, and albumin increased with increasing size of the turtles. The size-related differences in analytes documented in the present study are consistent with other reports of variation in clinical pathology parameters by size and age in sea turtles. As a component of a health assessment of juvenile loggerhead sea turtles in North Carolina, this study will serve as a baseline aiding in evaluation of trends for this population and as a diagnostic tool for assessing the health and prognosis for loggerhead sea turtles undergoing rehabilitation.

Married Students: A Study of Decreasing Marriage Rates and Family Sizes at the University of California.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fink, Ira Stephen; Cooke, Joan

Married students constitute a significant proportion of University of California students--one out of two graduate and one out of ten undergraduate students are married. Yet, little is known of the particular needs of married students and changes in this segment of the University population. This paper is concerned with measuring the changing…

Does fin coloration signal social status in a dominance hierarchy of the livebearing fish Xiphophorus variatus?

PubMed

Culumber, Zachary W; Monks, Scott

2014-09-01

In each population of the livebearing fish Xiphophorus variatus, only a small portion of the adult males develop bright yellow-red (YR) coloration on the dorsal and caudal fins. Here we characterized the dominance hierarchy in X. variatus and tested whether YR coloration is related to a male's position in the hierarchy and can therefore serve as a reliable cue to rival males. Populations varied considerably in the frequency of YR males. Across all populations, males with YR coloration were significantly larger than the rest of the males in the population. Observations of aggressive interactions among males in small groups in the laboratory revealed a sized-based dominance hierarchy with YR males at the top. Aggression was more common among males of a similar size and fighting increased as male body size differences decreased. However, despite the reliability of YR coloration as a signal of dominance status, males at lower social ranks did not avoid aggression with YR males and YR males did not experience fewer aggressive attacks compared to non-YR males. Our findings demonstrate that fin coloration is a reliable cue of a male's social status but rival males appear to not use this information to avoid potentially costly interactions with dominant males, suggesting that YR fin coloration has not evolved as a cue in agonistic interactions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Application of real-time PCR to study effects of ammonium on population size of ammonia-oxidizing bacteria in soil.

PubMed

Okano, Yutaka; Hristova, Krassimira R; Leutenegger, Christian M; Jackson, Louise E; Denison, R Ford; Gebreyesus, Binyam; Lebauer, David; Scow, Kate M

2004-02-01

Ammonium oxidation by autotrophic ammonia-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) is a key process in agricultural and natural ecosystems and has a large global impact. In the past, the ecology and physiology of AOB were not well understood because these organisms are notoriously difficult to culture. Recent applications of molecular techniques have advanced our knowledge of AOB, but the necessity of using PCR-based techniques has made quantitative measurements difficult. A quantitative real-time PCR assay targeting part of the ammonia-monooxygenase gene (amoA) was developed to estimate AOB population size in soil. This assay has a detection limit of 1.3 x 10(5) cells/g of dry soil. The effect of the ammonium concentration on AOB population density was measured in soil microcosms by applying 0, 1.5, or 7.5 mM ammonium sulfate. AOB population size and ammonium and nitrate concentrations were monitored for 28 days after (NH4)2SO4 application. AOB populations in amended treatments increased from an initial density of approximately 4 x 10(6) cells/g of dry soil to peak values (day 7) of 35 x 10(6) and 66 x 10(6) cells/g of dry soil in the 1.5 and 7.5 mM treatments, respectively. The population size of total bacteria (quantified by real-time PCR with a universal bacterial probe) remained between 0.7 x 10(9) and 2.2 x 10(9) cells/g of soil, regardless of the ammonia concentration. A fertilization experiment was conducted in a tomato field plot to test whether the changes in AOB density observed in microcosms could also be detected in the field. AOB population size increased from 8.9 x 10(6) to 38.0 x 10(6) cells/g of soil by day 39. Generation times were 28 and 52 h in the 1.5 and 7.5 mM treatments, respectively, in the microcosm experiment and 373 h in the ammonium treatment in the field study. Estimated oxidation rates per cell ranged initially from 0.5 to 25.0 fmol of NH4+ h(-1) cell(-1) and decreased with time in both microcosms and the field. Growth yields were 5.6 x 10(6), 17.5 x 10(6), and 1.7 x 10(6) cells/mol of NH4+ in the 1.5 and 7.5 mM microcosm treatments and the field study, respectively. In a second field experiment, AOB population size was significantly greater in annually fertilized versus unfertilized soil, even though the last ammonium application occurred 8 months prior to measurement, suggesting a long-term effect of ammonium fertilization on AOB population size.

Evidence, models, conservation programs and limits to management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nichols, J.D.

2012-01-01

Walsh et al. (2012) emphasized the importance of obtaining evidence to assess the effects of management actions on state variables relevant to objectives of conservation programs. They focused on malleefowl Leipoa ocellata, ground-dwelling Australian megapodes listed as vulnerable. They noted that although fox Vulpes vulpes baiting is the main management action used in malleefowl conservation throughout southern Australia, evidence of the effectiveness of this action is limited and currently debated. Walsh et al. (2012) then used data from 64 sites monitored for malleefowl and foxes over 23 years to assess key functional relationships relevant to fox control as a conservation action for malleefowl. In one set of analyses, Walsh et al. (2012) focused on two relationships: fox baiting investment versus fox presence, and fox presence versus malleefowl population size and rate of population change. Results led to the counterintuitive conclusion that increases in investments in fox control produced slight decreases in malleefowl population size and growth. In a second set of analyses, Walsh et al. (2012) directly assessed the relationship between investment in fox baiting and malleefowl population size and rate of population change. This set of analyses showed no significant relationship between investment in fox population control and malleefowl population growth. Both sets of analyses benefited from the incorporation of key environmental covariates hypothesized to influence these management relationships. Walsh et al. (2012) concluded that "in most situations, malleefowl conservation did not effectively benefit from fox baiting at current levels of investment." In this commentary, I discuss the work of Walsh et al. (2012) using the conceptual framework of structured decision making (SDM). In doing so, I accept their analytic results and associated conclusions as accurate and discuss basic ideas about evidence, conservation and limits to management.

Effective Population Size Differences in Calomys musculinus, the Host of Junín Virus: Its Relationship with the Epidemiological History of Argentine Hemorrhagic Fever.

PubMed

Chiappero, Marina B; Piacenza, María Florencia; Provensal, María Cecilia; Calderón, Gladys E; Gardenal, Cristina N; Polop, Jaime J

2018-06-11

Argentine hemorrhagic fever (AHF) is a serious endemic disease in Argentina, produced by Junín virus, whose host is the Sigmodontinae rodent Calomys musculinus . Within the endemic area, human incidence and proportion of infected rodents remains high for 5-10 years after the first appearance of the disease (epidemic [E] zone) and then gradually declines to sporadic cases (historic [H] zone). We tested the hypothesis that host populations within the E zone are large and well connected by gene flow, facilitating the transmission and maintenance of the virus, whereas those in the H and nonendemic (NE) zones are small and isolated, with the opposite effect. We estimated parameters affected by levels of gene flow and population size in 14 populations of C. musculinus : population effective size ( N e ), genetic variability, and mean relatedness. Our hypothesis was not supported: the lowest levels of variability and of N e and the highest genetic relatedness among individuals were found in the H zone. Populations from the NE zone displayed opposite results, whereas those in the E zone showed intermediate values. If we consider that populations are first NE, then E, and finally H, a correlative decrease in N e was observed. Chronically infected females have a low reproductive success. We propose that this would lower N e because each cohort would originate from a fraction of females of the previous generation, and affect other factors such as proportion of individuals that develop acute infection, probability of viral transmission, and evolution of virulence, which would explain, at least partly, the changing incidence of AHF.

Intra-sexual competition alters the relationship between testosterone and ornament expression in a wild territorial bird.

PubMed

Martínez-Padilla, J; Pérez-Rodríguez, L; Mougeot, F; Ludwig, S; Redpath, S M

2014-05-01

In a reliable signalling system, individual quality is expected to mediate the costs associated with ornamental displays, with relatively lower costs being paid by individuals of higher quality. These relative costs should depend not only on individual quality, but also on levels of intra-sexual competition. We explored the current and delayed effects that testosterone implants have on bird ornamentation in populations with contrasted population densities, as a proxy for intra-sexual competition. In a replicated experiment, we manipulated testosterone in 196 yearling male red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus in autumn in populations of high and low levels of intra-sexual competition. Males were assigned to one of three exogenous testosterone (T) treatments: empty implants (T0), small T implants (T1) or larger T implants (T2). We monitored subsequent changes in testosterone levels, ornament size and carotenoid-based colouration, carotenoid levels and body condition from autumn to spring. Testosterone implants increased testosterone levels, comb redness and comb size, and decreased body condition but these effects depended on levels of intra-sexual competition. Specifically, T2-implanted birds increased testosterone levels and comb size more, and reduced body condition more, in populations where intra-sexual competition was low. In the following spring, testosterone levels of T2-treated birds kept increasing in populations where intra-sexual competition was high but not in populations where intra-sexual competition was low. Our results highlight that levels of intra-sexual competition alter the relationship between testosterone levels and ornament expression, influencing their condition-dependence; they also indicate that the outcome of standard hormone manipulation conducted in free-living animals vary depending on the population context. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Disentangling plasticity of serotiny, a key adaptive trait in a Mediterranean conifer.

PubMed

Martín-Sanz, Ruth C; Santos-Del-Blanco, Luis; Notivol, Eduardo; Chambel, M Regina; San-Martín, Roberto; Climent, José

2016-09-01

Serotiny, the maintenance of ripe seeds in closed fruits or cones until fire causes dehiscence, is a key adaptive trait of plants in fire-prone ecosystems, but knowledge of phenotypic plasticity for cone retention in woody plants is extremely scarce. On the basis of published literature and our field observations, we hypothesized that increased aridity might decrease the aerial seed bank as a plastic response, not necessarily adaptive. We used a Pinus halepensis common garden replicated in three contrasted sites (mild, cold, and dry) to separate population differentiation from phenotypic plasticity of cone serotiny and canopy cone bank (CCB). Differences in growth among trees of the same provenance allowed us to include size effect as a proxy of ontogenetic age for the same chronological age of the trees. Tree size had a strong negative effect on serotiny, but serotiny degree differed among trial sites even after accounting for size effects. As hypothesized, serotiny was lower at the harsh (dry and cold) sites compared with the mild site. Genetic variation for size-dependent cone serotiny and significant population × site interaction were confirmed, the latter implying different plasticity of serotiny among populations. Population differentiation for CCB showed an ecotypic trend, with positive correlation with temperature oscillation (continentality) and negative correlation with summer rainfall. Growth-limiting environments exacerbated the precocious release of seeds, contrary to the ecotypic trend found for the aerial cone bank, suggesting a counter-gradient plasticity. This plastic response is potentially maladaptive under a scenario of frequent wildfires. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Significance of microhabitat heterogeneity in the spatial pattern and size-class structure of Anastatica hierochuntica L.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hegazy, Ahmad K.; Kabiel, Hanan F.

2007-05-01

Anastatica hierochuntica L. (Brassicaceae) is a desert monocarpic annual species characterized by a topochory/ombrohydrochory type of seed dispersal. The hygrochastic nature of the dry skeletons (dead individuals) permits controlling seed dispersal by rain events. The amount of dispersed seeds is proportional to the intensity of rainfall. When light showers occur, seeds are released and remain in the site. Seeds dispersed in the vicinity of the mother or source plant (primary type of seed dispersal) resulted in clumped pattern and complicated interrelationships among size-classes of the population. Following heavy rainfall, most seeds are released and transported into small patches and shallow depressions which collect runoff water. The dead A. hierochuntica skeletons demonstrate site-dependent size-class structure, spatial pattern and spatial interrelationships in different microhabitats. Four microhabitat types have been sampled: runnels, patches and simple and compound depressions in two sites (gravel and sand). Ripley's K-function was used to analyze the spatial pattern in populations of A. hierochuntica skeletons in the study microhabitats. Clumped patterns were observed in nearly all of the study microhabitats. Populations of A. hierochuntica in the sand site were more productive than in the gravel site and usually had more individuals in the larger size-classes. In the compound-depression microhabitat, the degree of clumping decreased from the core zone to the intermediate zone then shifted into overdispersed pattern in the outer zone. At the within size-class level, the clumped pattern dominated in small size classes but shifted into random and overdispersed patterns in the larger size classes. Aggregation between small and large size-classes was not well-defined but large individuals were found closer to the smaller individuals than to those of their own class. In relation to the phytomass and the size-class structure, the outer zone of the simple depression and the outer and intermediate zones of the compound depression microhabitats were the most productive sites.

Strong fluctuations in aboveground population size do not limit genetic diversity in populations of an endangered biennial species.

PubMed

Münzbergová, Zuzana; Šurinová, Maria; Husáková, Iveta; Brabec, Jiří

2018-04-26

Assessing genetic diversity within populations of rare species and understanding its determinants are crucial for effective species protection. While a lot is known about the relationships between genetic diversity, fitness, and current population size, very few studies explored the effects of past population size. Knowledge of past population size may, however, improve our ability to predict future population fates. We studied Gentianella praecox subsp. bohemica, a biennial species with extensive seed bank. We tested the effect of current, past minimal and maximal population size, and harmonic mean of population sizes within the last 15 years on genetic diversity and fitness. Maximum population size over the last 15 years was the best predictor of expected heterozygosity of the populations and was significantly related to current population size and management. Plant fitness was significantly related to current as well as maximum population size and expected heterozygosity. The results suggested that information on past population size may improve our understanding of contemporary genetic diversity across populations. They demonstrated that despite the strong fluctuations in population size, large reductions in population size do not result in immediate loss of genetic diversity and reduction of fitness within the populations. This is likely due to the seed bank of the species serving as reservoir of the genetic diversity of the populations. From a conservation point of view, this suggests that the restoration of small populations of short-lived species with permanent seed bank is possible as these populations may still be genetically diverse.

Network confinement and heterogeneity slows nanoparticle diffusion in polymer gels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parrish, Emmabeth; Caporizzo, Matthew A.; Composto, Russell J.

2017-05-01

Nanoparticle (NP) diffusion was measured in polyacrylamide gels (PAGs) with a mesh size comparable to the NP size, 21 nm. The confinement ratio (CR), NP diameter/mesh size, increased from 0.4 to 3.8 by increasing crosslinker density and from 0.4 to 2.1 by adding acetone, which collapsed the PAGs. In all gels, NPs either became localized, moving less than 200 nm, diffused microns, or exhibited a combination of these behaviors, as measured by single particle tracking. Mean squared displacements (MSDs) of mobile NPs decreased as CR increased. In collapsed gels, the localized NP population increased and MSD of mobile NPs decreased compared to crosslinked PAGs. For all CRs, van Hove distributions exhibited non-Gaussian displacements, consistent with intermittent localization of NPs. The non-Gaussian parameter increased from a maximum of 1.5 for crosslinked PAG to 5 for collapsed PAG, consistent with greater network heterogeneity in these gels. Diffusion coefficients decreased exponentially as CR increased for crosslinked gels; however, in collapsed gels, the diffusion coefficients decreased more strongly, which was attributed to network heterogeneity. Collapsing the gel resulted in an increasingly tortuous pathway for NPs, slowing diffusion at a given CR. Understanding how gel structure affects NP mobility will allow the design and enhanced performance of gels that separate and release molecules in membranes and drug delivery platforms.

Economic evaluation of progeny-testing and genomic selection schemes for small-sized nucleus dairy cattle breeding programs in developing countries.

PubMed

Kariuki, C M; Brascamp, E W; Komen, H; Kahi, A K; van Arendonk, J A M

2017-03-01

In developing countries minimal and erratic performance and pedigree recording impede implementation of large-sized breeding programs. Small-sized nucleus programs offer an alternative but rely on their economic performance for their viability. We investigated the economic performance of 2 alternative small-sized dairy nucleus programs [i.e., progeny testing (PT) and genomic selection (GS)] over a 20-yr investment period. The nucleus was made up of 453 male and 360 female animals distributed in 8 non-overlapping age classes. Each year 10 active sires and 100 elite dams were selected. Populations of commercial recorded cows (CRC) of sizes 12,592 and 25,184 were used to produce test daughters in PT or to create a reference population in GS, respectively. Economic performance was defined as gross margins, calculated as discounted revenues minus discounted costs following a single generation of selection. Revenues were calculated as cumulative discounted expressions (CDE, kg) × 0.32 (€/kg of milk) × 100,000 (size commercial population). Genetic superiorities, deterministically simulated using pseudo-BLUP index and CDE, were determined using gene flow. Costs were for one generation of selection. Results show that GS schemes had higher cumulated genetic gain in the commercial cow population and higher gross margins compared with PT schemes. Gross margins were between 3.2- and 5.2-fold higher for GS, depending on size of the CRC population. The increase in gross margin was mostly due to a decreased generation interval and lower running costs in GS schemes. In PT schemes many bulls are culled before selection. We therefore also compared 2 schemes in which semen was stored instead of keeping live bulls. As expected, semen storage resulted in an increase in gross margins in PT schemes, but gross margins remained lower than those of GS schemes. We conclude that implementation of small-sized GS breeding schemes can be economically viable for developing countries. The Authors. Published by the Federation of Animal Science Societies and Elsevier Inc. on behalf of the American Dairy Science Association®. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).

Slowed ageing, welfare, and population problems.

PubMed

Wareham, Christopher

2015-10-01

Biological studies have demonstrated that it is possible to slow the ageing process and extend lifespan in a wide variety of organisms, perhaps including humans. Making use of the findings of these studies, this article examines two problems concerning the effect of life extension on population size and welfare. The first--the problem of overpopulation--is that as a result of life extension too many people will co-exist at the same time, resulting in decreases in average welfare. The second--the problem of underpopulation--is that life extension will result in too few people existing across time, resulting in decreases in total welfare. I argue that overpopulation is highly unlikely to result from technologies that slow ageing. Moreover, I claim that the problem of underpopulation relies on claims about life extension that are false in the case of life extension by slowed ageing. The upshot of these arguments is that the population problems discussed provide scant reason to oppose life extension by slowed ageing.

Equalisation of alcohol participation among socioeconomic groups over time: an analysis based on the total differential approach and longitudinal data from Sweden

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Health inequality and its social determinants are well-studied, but the determinants of inequality of alcohol consumption are less well-investigated. Methods The total differential approach of decomposition of changes in the concentration index of the probability of participation in alcohol consumption was applied to 8-year longitudinal data for Swedish women aged 28-76 in 1988/89. Results Alcohol consumption showed a pro-rich inequality, with income being a strong contributor. Overall participation remained fairly constant, but the inequality decreased over time as abstinence became less common among the poor and more common among the rich. This was mainly due to changes in the relative weights of certain population groups, such as a decrease in the proportional size of the oldest cohorts. Conclusions Inequality in participation in alcohol consumption is pro-rich in Sweden. This inequality has tended to decrease over time, due to changes in population composition rather than to policy intervention. PMID:21306654

Discrete and Continuum Approximations for Collective Cell Migration in a Scratch Assay with Cell Size Dynamics.

PubMed

Matsiaka, Oleksii M; Penington, Catherine J; Baker, Ruth E; Simpson, Matthew J

2018-04-01

Scratch assays are routinely used to study the collective spreading of cell populations. In general, the rate at which a population of cells spreads is driven by the combined effects of cell migration and proliferation. To examine the effects of cell migration separately from the effects of cell proliferation, scratch assays are often performed after treating the cells with a drug that inhibits proliferation. Mitomycin-C is a drug that is commonly used to suppress cell proliferation in this context. However, in addition to suppressing cell proliferation, mitomycin-C also causes cells to change size during the experiment, as each cell in the population approximately doubles in size as a result of treatment. Therefore, to describe a scratch assay that incorporates the effects of cell-to-cell crowding, cell-to-cell adhesion, and dynamic changes in cell size, we present a new stochastic model that incorporates these mechanisms. Our agent-based stochastic model takes the form of a system of Langevin equations that is the system of stochastic differential equations governing the evolution of the population of agents. We incorporate a time-dependent interaction force that is used to mimic the dynamic increase in size of the agents. To provide a mathematical description of the average behaviour of the stochastic model we present continuum limit descriptions using both a standard mean-field approximation and a more sophisticated moment dynamics approximation that accounts for the density of agents and density of pairs of agents in the stochastic model. Comparing the accuracy of the two continuum descriptions for a typical scratch assay geometry shows that the incorporation of agent growth in the system is associated with a decrease in accuracy of the standard mean-field description. In contrast, the moment dynamics description provides a more accurate prediction of the evolution of the scratch assay when the increase in size of individual agents is included in the model.

Molecular dynamics of liquid SiO2 under high pressure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rustad, James R.; Yuen, David A.; Spera, Frank J.

1990-01-01

The molecular dynamics of pure SiO2 liquids was investigated up to pressures of 20 GPa at 4000 K using 252, 498, 864, and 1371 particles. The results obtained suggest that the pressure-induced maxima in the self-diffusion coefficients of both oxygen and silicon are dependent on the system size. In the case of larger systems, the maximum decreases and shifts to lower pressures. Changes in the velocity autocorrelation function with increasing pressure are described. The populations of anomalously coordinated silicon and oxygen are then discussed as a function of pressure and system size.

Patterns of Genetic Coding Variation in a Native American Population before and after European Contact.

PubMed

Lindo, John; Rogers, Mary; Mallott, Elizabeth K; Petzelt, Barbara; Mitchell, Joycelynn; Archer, David; Cybulski, Jerome S; Malhi, Ripan S; DeGiorgio, Michael

2018-05-03

The effects of European colonization on the genomes of Native Americans may have produced excesses of potentially deleterious features, mainly due to the severe reductions in population size and corresponding losses of genetic diversity. This assumption, however, neither considers actual genomic patterns that existed before colonization nor does it adequately capture the effects of admixture. In this study, we analyze the whole-exome sequences of modern and ancient individuals from a Northwest Coast First Nation, with a demographic history similar to other indigenous populations from the Americas. We show that in approximately ten generations from initial European contact, the modern individuals exhibit reduced levels of novel and low-frequency variants, a lower proportion of potentially deleterious alleles, and decreased heterozygosity when compared to their ancestors. This pattern can be explained by a dramatic population decline, resulting in the loss of potentially damaging low-frequency variants, and subsequent admixture. We also find evidence that the indigenous population was on a steady decline in effective population size for several thousand years before contact, which emphasizes regional demography over the common conception of a uniform expansion after entry into the Americas. This study examines the genomic consequences of colonialism on an indigenous group and describes the continuing role of gene flow among modern populations. Copyright © 2018 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Activation of Big Grain1 significantly improves grain size by regulating auxin transport in rice.

PubMed

Liu, Linchuan; Tong, Hongning; Xiao, Yunhua; Che, Ronghui; Xu, Fan; Hu, Bin; Liang, Chengzhen; Chu, Jinfang; Li, Jiayang; Chu, Chengcai

2015-09-01

Grain size is one of the key factors determining grain yield. However, it remains largely unknown how grain size is regulated by developmental signals. Here, we report the identification and characterization of a dominant mutant big grain1 (Bg1-D) that shows an extra-large grain phenotype from our rice T-DNA insertion population. Overexpression of BG1 leads to significantly increased grain size, and the severe lines exhibit obviously perturbed gravitropism. In addition, the mutant has increased sensitivities to both auxin and N-1-naphthylphthalamic acid, an auxin transport inhibitor, whereas knockdown of BG1 results in decreased sensitivities and smaller grains. Moreover, BG1 is specifically induced by auxin treatment, preferentially expresses in the vascular tissue of culms and young panicles, and encodes a novel membrane-localized protein, strongly suggesting its role in regulating auxin transport. Consistent with this finding, the mutant has increased auxin basipetal transport and altered auxin distribution, whereas the knockdown plants have decreased auxin transport. Manipulation of BG1 in both rice and Arabidopsis can enhance plant biomass, seed weight, and yield. Taking these data together, we identify a novel positive regulator of auxin response and transport in a crop plant and demonstrate its role in regulating grain size, thus illuminating a new strategy to improve plant productivity.

Maternal body condition influences magnitude of anti-predator response in offspring.

PubMed

Bennett, Amanda M; Murray, Dennis L

2014-11-07

Organisms exhibit plasticity in response to their environment, but there is large variation even within populations in the expression and magnitude of response. Maternal influence alters offspring survival through size advantages in growth and development. However, the relationship between maternal influence and variation in plasticity in response to predation risk is unknown. We hypothesized that variation in the magnitude of plastic responses between families is at least partly due to maternal provisioning and examined the relationship between maternal condition, egg provisioning and magnitude of plastic response to perceived predation risk (by dragonfly larvae: Aeshna spp.) in northern leopard frogs (Lithobates pipiens). Females in better body condition tended to lay more (clutch size) larger (egg diameter) eggs. Tadpoles responded to predation risk by increasing relative tail depth (morphology) and decreasing activity (behaviour). We found a positive relationship between morphological effect size and maternal condition, but no relationship between behavioural effect size and maternal condition. These novel findings suggest that limitations imposed by maternal condition can constrain phenotypic variation, ultimately influencing the capacity of populations to respond to environmental change. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Asteroid rotation. I - Tabulation and analysis of rates, pole positions and shapes. II - A theory for the collisional evolution of rotation rates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, A. W.; Burns, J. A.

1979-01-01

Rotation properties and shape data for 182 asteroids are compiled and analyzed, and a collisional model for the evolution of the mean rotation rate of asteroids is proposed. Tabulations of asteroid rotation rates, taxonomic types, pole positions, sizes and shapes and plots of rotation frequency and light curve amplitude against size indicate that asteroid rotational frequency increases with decreasing size for all asteroids except those of the C or S classes. Light curve data also indicate that small asteroids are more irregular in shape than large asteroids. The dispersion in rotation rates observed is well represented by a three dimensional Maxwellian distribution, suggestive of collisional encounters between asteroids. In the proposed model, the rotation rate is found to tend toward an equilibrium value, at which spin-up due to infrequent, large collisions is balanced by a drag due to the larger number of small collisions. The lower mean rotation rate of C-type asteroids is attributed to a lower means density of that class, and the increase in rotation rate with decreasing size is interpreted as indicative of a substantial population of strong asteroids.

Stress relaxation at a gelatin hydrogel-glass interface in direct shear sliding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, Vinit; Singh, Arun K.

2018-01-01

In this paper, we study experimentally the stress relaxation behavior of soft solids such as gelatin hydrogels on a smooth glass surface in direct shear sliding. It is observed experimentally that irrespective of pulling velocity, the sliding block relaxes to the same level of nonzero residual stress. However, residual stress increases with increasing gelatin concentration in the hydrogels. We have also validated a friction model for strong bond formation during steady relaxation in light of the experimental observations. Our theoretical analysis establishes that population of dangling chains at the sliding interface significantly affects the relaxation process. As a result, residual stress increases with increasing gelatin concentration or decreasing mesh size of the three-dimensional structures in the hydrogels. It is also found that the transition time, at which a weak bond converts to strong bond, increases with increasing mesh size of the hydrogels. Moreover, relaxation time constant of a strong bond decreases with increasing mesh size. However, activation length of a strong bond increases with mesh size. Finally, this study signifies the role of residual strength in frictional shear sliding and it is believed that these results should be useful to understand the role of residual stress in stick-slip instability.

Decline of flounder (Platichthys flesus (L.)) at the margin of the species' distribution range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jokinen, Henri; Wennhage, Håkan; Lappalainen, Antti; Ådjers, Kaj; Rask, Martti; Norkko, Alf

2015-11-01

The Baltic Sea is undergoing large-scale environmental change due to eutrophication, climate change, over-exploitation and habitat destruction, with subsequent degradation of living conditions for many fish species. Signs of this unfavorable development are seen as population declines in species affected. We provide the first synthesis and characterization of the recent population decline in European flounder (Platichthys flesus (L.)) in the northern Baltic Sea, using available fishery-independent data from the Finnish coast, which is at the margin of the distribution range of this species. The objective was to document recent changes in the flounder population, identify the onset and quantify the magnitude of the change. The results showed substantial decreases in flounder numbers and biomass across the whole study area during recent decades. Based on the time series data available, flounder abundances declined by 46-97% from the 1990s to the 2000s, with top values in the mid-1990s and current low levels reached in the early 2000s. Additionally, signs of decreasing flounder size and condition were also observed. We discuss potential reasons for the development in terms of environmental change and fishing, and identify potential bottlenecks for population maintenance and mechanisms behind population change, thereby contributing to our general understanding of marginal flounder populations.

Forecasting changes in amphibian biodiversity: aiming at a moving target

PubMed Central

Collins, James P; Halliday, Tim

2005-01-01

Amphibian population declines and sudden species' extinctions began to be noted at the beginning of the 1980s. Understanding the causes of the losses is hampered by our poor knowledge of the amphibian fauna in many parts of the world. Amphibian taxa are still being described at a high rate, especially in the tropics, which means that even quantifying species lost as a percentage of the current fauna can be a misleading statistic in some parts of the globe. The number of species that have gone missing is only one measure of the loss of biodiversity. Long-term studies of single-species populations are needed, but this approach has its limits. Amphibian populations often show great annual variation in population size making it difficult, if not impossible, to use short-term studies as a basis for deciding if a population is increasing or decreasing in the long term. Aggregating single studies into databases and searching for patterns of variation is a way of overcoming this limitation. Several databases on species and population time series are available or in development. These records show that declines are continuing worldwide with some species and populations, especially in the tropics and at higher elevations, at greater risk of extinction than others. Unfortunately, amphibian databases with population time series have much less information for the tropics compared to the temperate zone, and less for Africa and Asia compared with Europe and North America. Focusing limited resources using comprehensive statistical designs is a way to maximize the efficiency and effectiveness of monitoring efforts. It is clear that, in the first decades of the twenty-first century, the regions of the globe with the highest diversity of amphibian species will experience the greatest rates of decrease of forests and increase in human population size, fertilizer use, agricultural production, creation of new croplands and irrigation. Many of these changes are likely negatively to affect amphibian species diversity, and their influence must be understood before concluding, at least for amphibians, that the 2010 millennium assessment goal of significantly reversing the rate of loss of Earth's biodiversity can be met. PMID:15856554

Forecasting changes in amphibian biodiversity: aiming at a moving target.

PubMed

Collins, James P; Halliday, Tim

2005-02-28

Amphibian population declines and sudden species' extinctions began to be noted at the beginning of the 1980s. Understanding the causes of the losses is hampered by our poor knowledge of the amphibian fauna in many parts of the world. Amphibian taxa are still being described at a high rate, especially in the tropics, which means that even quantifying species lost as a percentage of the current fauna can be a misleading statistic in some parts of the globe. The number of species that have gone missing is only one measure of the loss of biodiversity. Long-term studies of single-species populations are needed, but this approach has its limits. Amphibian populations often show great annual variation in population size making it difficult, if not impossible, to use short-term studies as a basis for deciding if a population is increasing or decreasing in the long term. Aggregating single studies into databases and searching for patterns of variation is a way of overcoming this limitation. Several databases on species and population time series are available or in development. These records show that declines are continuing worldwide with some species and populations, especially in the tropics and at higher elevations, at greater risk of extinction than others. Unfortunately, amphibian databases with population time series have much less information for the tropics compared to the temperate zone, and less for Africa and Asia compared with Europe and North America. Focusing limited resources using comprehensive statistical designs is a way to maximize the efficiency and effectiveness of monitoring efforts. It is clear that, in the first decades of the twenty-first century, the regions of the globe with the highest diversity of amphibian species will experience the greatest rates of decrease of forests and increase in human population size, fertilizer use, agricultural production, creation of new croplands and irrigation. Many of these changes are likely negatively to affect amphibian species diversity, and their influence must be understood before concluding, at least for amphibians, that the 2010 millennium assessment goal of significantly reversing the rate of loss of Earth's biodiversity can be met.

Spatial and seasonal dynamic of abundance and distribution of guanaco and livestock: insights from using density surface and null models.

PubMed

Schroeder, Natalia M; Matteucci, Silvia D; Moreno, Pablo G; Gregorio, Pablo; Ovejero, Ramiro; Taraborelli, Paula; Carmanchahi, Pablo D

2014-01-01

Monitoring species abundance and distribution is a prerequisite when assessing species status and population viability, a difficult task to achieve for large herbivores at ecologically meaningful scales. Co-occurrence patterns can be used to infer mechanisms of community organization (such as biotic interactions), although it has been traditionally applied to binary presence/absence data. Here, we combine density surface and null models of abundance data as a novel approach to analyze the spatial and seasonal dynamics of abundance and distribution of guanacos (Lama guanicoe) and domestic herbivores in northern Patagonia, in order to visually and analytically compare the dispersion and co-occurrence pattern of ungulates. We found a marked seasonal pattern in abundance and spatial distribution of L. guanicoe. The guanaco population reached its maximum annual size and spatial dispersion in spring-summer, decreasing up to 6.5 times in size and occupying few sites of the study area in fall-winter. These results are evidence of the seasonal migration process of guanaco populations, an increasingly rare event for terrestrial mammals worldwide. The maximum number of guanacos estimated for spring (25,951) is higher than the total population size (10,000) 20 years ago, probably due to both counting methodology and population growth. Livestock were mostly distributed near human settlements, as expected by the sedentary management practiced by local people. Herbivore distribution was non-random; i.e., guanaco and livestock abundances co-varied negatively in all seasons, more than expected by chance. Segregation degree of guanaco and small-livestock (goats and sheep) was comparatively stronger than that of guanaco and large-livestock, suggesting a competition mechanism between ecologically similar herbivores, although various environmental factors could also contribute to habitat segregation. The new and compelling combination of methods used here is highly useful for researchers who conduct counts of animals to simultaneously estimate population sizes, distributions, assess temporal trends and characterize multi-species spatial interactions.

Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines

PubMed Central

Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R.; Dirzo, Rodolfo

2017-01-01

The population extinction pulse we describe here shows, from a quantitative viewpoint, that Earth’s sixth mass extinction is more severe than perceived when looking exclusively at species extinctions. Therefore, humanity needs to address anthropogenic population extirpation and decimation immediately. That conclusion is based on analyses of the numbers and degrees of range contraction (indicative of population shrinkage and/or population extinctions according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature) using a sample of 27,600 vertebrate species, and on a more detailed analysis documenting the population extinctions between 1900 and 2015 in 177 mammal species. We find that the rate of population loss in terrestrial vertebrates is extremely high—even in “species of low concern.” In our sample, comprising nearly half of known vertebrate species, 32% (8,851/27,600) are decreasing; that is, they have decreased in population size and range. In the 177 mammals for which we have detailed data, all have lost 30% or more of their geographic ranges and more than 40% of the species have experienced severe population declines (>80% range shrinkage). Our data indicate that beyond global species extinctions Earth is experiencing a huge episode of population declines and extirpations, which will have negative cascading consequences on ecosystem functioning and services vital to sustaining civilization. We describe this as a “biological annihilation” to highlight the current magnitude of Earth’s ongoing sixth major extinction event. PMID:28696295

[The structural functional analysis of beds stock of curative preventive organizations of the state public health system of the Russian Federation].

PubMed

Schepin, V O

2014-01-01

The article presents the results of comprehensive scientific analysis of size and structure of beds stock of medical curative preventive organizations of state and municipal health care systems of the Russian Federation. The issues of beds support of population on national, federal okrugs and federation subjects' levels including differentiation on different medical specialties are considered. The main indicators of functioning of hospitals, per capita consumption of hospital medical care and territorial characteristics and differences of these indicators are analyzed In conditions of on-going decrease of size of beds stock and amount of medical care in hospitals and against the background of stability of main indicators of beds use the expressed but not always objectively conditioned differences continue to be present concerning both population support with beds stock and indicators of consumption of medical care in hospitals. All these occurrences undoubtedly impact accessibility of this type of medical care to population and its resource capacity for the government. In 2012, beds support of population decreased from 85.7 to 84.1 beds per 10 000 of population. The value of indicator in federal subjects differs up to 2.9 times. In the structure of beds stock are prevailing specialized beds or groups of beds on such medical specialties as psychiatry, surgery, obstetrics and gynecology and therapy. The per capita use of medical care in hospitals decreased up to 2.609 beds-per-day that is 6.2% lower than standard value from the program of state guarantees of free-of-charge medical care support of citizen. The end values of indicator in federal subjects differ in 2.7 times. In federal subjects indicators of mean number of work of bed per year differ up to 1.2 times, of mean duration of treatment--up to 1.6 times, turn-over of bed--up to 1.6 times, hospital lethality--up to 5.9 times. The results of study confirm necessity of structural functional optimization of national beds stock and development of interaction between hospitals and out-patient services.

NEWLY QUENCHED GALAXIES AS THE CAUSE FOR THE APPARENT EVOLUTION IN AVERAGE SIZE OF THE POPULATION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carollo, C. M.; Bschorr, T. J.; Lilly, S. J.

2013-08-20

We use the large COSMOS sample of galaxies to study in an internally self-consistent way the change in the number densities of quenched early-type galaxies (Q-ETGs) of a given size over the redshift interval 0.2 < z < 1 in order to study the claimed size evolution of these galaxies. In a stellar mass bin at 10{sup 10.5} < M{sub galaxy} < 10{sup 11} M{sub Sun }, we see no change in the number density of compact Q-ETGs over this redshift range, while in a higher mass bin at >10{sup 11} M{sub Sun }, where we would expect merging tomore » be more significant, we find a small decrease, by {approx}30%. In both mass bins, the increase of the median sizes of Q-ETGs with time is primarily caused by the addition to the size function of larger and more diffuse Q-ETGs. At all masses, compact Q-ETGs become systematically redder toward later epochs, with a (U - V) color difference which is consistent with a passive evolution of their stellar populations, indicating that they are a stable population that does not appreciably evolve in size. We find furthermore, at all epochs, that the larger Q-ETGs (at least in the lower mass bin) have average rest-frame colors that are systematically bluer than those of the more compact Q-ETGs, suggesting that the former are indeed younger than the latter. The idea that new, large, Q-ETGs are responsible for the observed growth in the median size of the population at a given mass is also supported by analysis of the sizes and number of the star-forming galaxies that are expected to be the progenitors of the new Q-ETGs over the same period. In the low mass bin, the new Q-ETGs appear to have {approx}30% smaller half-light radii than their star-forming progenitors. This is likely due to the fading of their disks after they cease star formation. Comparison with higher redshifts shows that the median size of newly quenched galaxies roughly scales, at constant mass, as (1 + z){sup -1}. We conclude that the dominant cause of the size evolution seen in the Q-ETG population is that the average sizes and thus stellar densities of individual Q-ETGs roughly scale with the average density of the universe at the time when they were quenched, and that subsequent size changes in individual objects, through merging or other processes, are of secondary importance, especially at masses below 10{sup 11} M{sub Sun}.« less

Size-Energy Relationships in Ecological Communities

PubMed Central

Sewall, Brent J.; Freestone, Amy L.; Hawes, Joseph E.; Andriamanarina, Ernest

2013-01-01

Hypotheses that relate body size to energy use are of particular interest in community ecology and macroecology because of their potential to facilitate quantitative predictions about species interactions and to clarify complex ecological patterns. One prominent size-energy hypothesis, the energetic equivalence hypothesis, proposes that energy use from shared, limiting resources by populations or size classes of foragers will be independent of body size. Alternative hypotheses propose that energy use will increase with body size, decrease with body size, or peak at an intermediate body size. Despite extensive study, however, size-energy hypotheses remain controversial, due to a lack of directly-measured data on energy use, a tendency to confound distinct scaling relationships, and insufficient attention to the ecological contexts in which predicted relationships are likely to occur. Our goal, therefore, was to directly evaluate size-energy hypotheses while clarifying how results would differ with alternate methods and assumptions. We comprehensively tested size-energy hypotheses in a vertebrate frugivore guild in a tropical forest in Madagascar. Our test of size-energy hypotheses, which is the first to examine energy intake directly, was consistent with the energetic equivalence hypothesis. This finding corresponds with predictions of metabolic theory and models of energy distribution in ecological communities, which imply that body size does not confer an advantage in competition for energy among populations or size classes of foragers. This result was robust to different assumptions about energy regulation. Our results from direct energy measurement, however, contrasted with those obtained with conventional methods of indirect inference from size-density relationships, suggesting that size-density relationships do not provide an appropriate proxy for size-energy relationships as has commonly been assumed. Our research also provides insights into mechanisms underlying local size-energy relationships and has important implications for predicting species interactions and for understanding the structure and dynamics of ecological communities. PMID:23950873

Uncertainty in Population Estimates for Endangered Animals and Improving the Recovery Process

PubMed Central

Haines, Aaron M.; Zak, Matthew; Hammond, Katie; Scott, J. Michael; Goble, Dale D.; Rachlow, Janet L.

2013-01-01

Simple Summary The objective of our study was to evaluate the mention of uncertainty (i.e., variance) associated with population size estimates within U.S. recovery plans for endangered animals. To do this we reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species. We found that more recent recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty. We recommend that updated recovery plans combine uncertainty of population size estimates with a minimum detectable difference to aid in successful recovery. Abstract United States recovery plans contain biological information for a species listed under the Endangered Species Act and specify recovery criteria to provide basis for species recovery. The objective of our study was to evaluate whether recovery plans provide uncertainty (e.g., variance) with estimates of population size. We reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species to record the following data: (1) if a current population size was given, (2) if a measure of uncertainty or variance was associated with current estimates of population size and (3) if population size was stipulated for recovery. We found that 59% of completed recovery plans specified a current population size, 14.5% specified a variance for the current population size estimate and 43% specified population size as a recovery criterion. More recent recovery plans reported more estimates of current population size, uncertainty and population size as a recovery criterion. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty compared to reptiles and amphibians. We suggest the use of calculating minimum detectable differences to improve confidence when delisting endangered animals and we identified incentives for individuals to get involved in recovery planning to improve access to quantitative data. PMID:26479531

Effects of physiological aging on mismatch negativity: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Cheng, Chia-Hsiung; Hsu, Wan-Yu; Lin, Yung-Yang

2013-11-01

Mismatch negativity (MMN) is a promising window on how the functional integrity of auditory sensory memory and change discrimination is modulated by age and relevant clinical conditions. However, the effects of aging on MMN have remained somewhat elusive, particularly at short interstimulus intervals (ISIs). We performed a meta-analysis of peer-reviewed MMN studies that had targeted both young and elderly adults to estimate the mean effect size. Nine studies, consisting of 29 individual investigations, were included and the final total study population consisted of 182 young and 165 elderly subjects. The effects of different deviant types and duration of ISIs on the effect size were assessed. The overall mean effect size was 0.63 (95% CI at 0.43-0.82). The effect sizes for long ISI (>2s, effect size 0.68, 95% CI at 0.31-1.06) and short ISI (<2s, effect size 0.61, 95% CI at 0.39-0.84) were both considered moderate. A further analysis showed a prominent aging-related decrease in MMN responses to duration and frequency changes at short ISIs. It was also interesting to note that the effect size was about 25% larger for duration deviant condition compared to the frequency deviant condition. In conclusion, a reduced MMN response to duration and frequency deviants is a robust feature among the aged adults, which suggests that there has been a decline in the functional integrity of central auditory processing in this population. © 2013.

Effect of mean diameter and polydispersity of PLG microspheres on drug release: experiment and theory.

PubMed

Berchane, N S; Carson, K H; Rice-Ficht, A C; Andrews, M J

2007-06-07

The need to tailor release rate profiles from polymeric microspheres is a significant problem. Microsphere size, which has a significant effect on drug release rate, can potentially be varied to design a controlled drug delivery system with desired release profile. In this work the effects of microspheres mean diameter, polydispersity, and polymer degradation on drug release rate from poly(lactide-co-glycolide) (PLG) microspheres are described. Piroxicam containing PLG microspheres were fabricated at 20% loading, and at three different impeller speeds. A portion of the microspheres was then sieved giving five different size distributions. In vitro release kinetics were determined for each preparation. Based on these experimental results, a suitable mathematical theory has been developed that incorporates the effect of microsphere size distribution and polymer degradation on drug release. We show from in vitro release experiments that microsphere size has a significant effect on drug release rate. The initial release rate decreased with an increase in microsphere size. In addition, the release profile changed from first order to concave-upward (sigmoidal) as the microsphere size was increased. The mathematical model gave a good fit to the experimental release data. For highly polydisperse populations (polydispersity parameter b<3), incorporating the microsphere size distribution into the mathematical model gave a better fit to the experimental results than using the representative mean diameter. The validated mathematical model can be used to predict small-molecule drug release from PLG microsphere populations.

Orbital debris measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kessler, D. J.

What is currently known about the orbital debris flux is from a combination of ground based and in-space measurements. These measurements have revealed an increasing population with decreasing size. A summary of measurements is presented for the following sources: the North American Aerospace Defense Command Catalog, the Perimeter Acquisition and Attack Characterization System Radar, ground based optical telescopes, the Explorer 46 Meteoroid Bumper Experiment, spacecraft windows, and Solar Max surfaces.

Orbital debris measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kessler, D. J.

1986-01-01

What is currently known about the orbital debris flux is from a combination of ground based and in-space measurements. These measurements have revealed an increasing population with decreasing size. A summary of measurements is presented for the following sources: the North American Aerospace Defense Command Catalog, the Perimeter Acquisition and Attack Characterization System Radar, ground based optical telescopes, the Explorer 46 Meteoroid Bumper Experiment, spacecraft windows, and Solar Max surfaces.

Sarcopenia and decreased muscle strength in the elderly woman: resistance training as a safe and effective intervention.

PubMed

Foster-Burns, S B

1999-01-01

A principle component of age-related weakness and frailty in women is sarcopenia. This decrease in skeletal muscle mass is a progressive syndrome that will affect the quality of life for elderly women by decreasing the ability to perform many activities of daily living. Strength training is known to be an effective means of increasing muscular strength and size in many populations, and can be utilized successfully to significantly improve muscle strength, muscle mass and functional mobility in elderly women up to the age of 96 years. Such exercise can minimize the syndrome of physical frailty due to decreased muscle mass and strength. Any rehabilitation or exercise program for the elderly woman would benefit from the inclusion of such a training regime.

Does landscape fragmentation influence sex ratio of dioecious plants? A case study of Pistacia chinensis in the Thousand-Island Lake region of China.

PubMed

Yu, Lin; Lu, Jianbo

2011-01-01

The Thousand-Island Lake region in Zhejiang Province, China is a highly fragmented landscape with a clear point-in-time of fragmentation as a result of flooding to form the reservoir. Islands in the artificial lake were surveyed to examine how population sex ratio of a dioecious plant specie Pistacia chinensis B. was affected by landscape fragmentation. A natural population on the mainland near the lake was also surveyed for comparison. Population size, sex ratio and diameter at breast height (DBH) of individuals were measured over 2 years. More than 1,500 individuals, distributed in 31 populations, were studied. Soil nitrogen in the different populations was measured to identify the relationship between sex ratio and micro-environmental conditions. In accordance with the results of many other reports on biased sex ratio in relation to environmental gradient, we found that poor soil nitrogen areas fostered male-biased populations. In addition, the degree of sex ratio bias increased with decreasing population size and population connectivity. The biased sex ratios were only found in younger individuals (less than 50 years old) in small populations, while a stable 1∶1 sex ratio was found in the large population on the mainland. We concluded that the effects of landscape fragmentation on the dioecious population sex ratio were mainly achieved in relation to changing soil nitrogen conditions in patches and pollen limitation within and among populations. Large populations could maintain a more suitable environment in terms of nutrient conditions and pollen flow, subsequently maintaining a stable sex ratio in dioecious plant populations. Both micro-environmental factors and spatial structure should be considered in fragmented landscape for the conservation of dioecious plant species.

Biology-Culture Co-evolution in Finite Populations.

PubMed

de Boer, Bart; Thompson, Bill

2018-01-19

Language is the result of two concurrent evolutionary processes: biological and cultural inheritance. An influential evolutionary hypothesis known as the moving target problem implies inherent limitations on the interactions between our two inheritance streams that result from a difference in pace: the speed of cultural evolution is thought to rule out cognitive adaptation to culturally evolving aspects of language. We examine this hypothesis formally by casting it as as a problem of adaptation in time-varying environments. We present a mathematical model of biology-culture co-evolution in finite populations: a generalisation of the Moran process, treating co-evolution as coupled non-independent Markov processes, providing a general formulation of the moving target hypothesis in precise probabilistic terms. Rapidly varying culture decreases the probability of biological adaptation. However, we show that this effect declines with population size and with stronger links between biology and culture: in realistically sized finite populations, stochastic effects can carry cognitive specialisations to fixation in the face of variable culture, especially if the effects of those specialisations are amplified through cultural evolution. These results support the view that language arises from interactions between our two major inheritance streams, rather than from one primary evolutionary process that dominates another.

Adopting epidemic model to optimize medication and surgical intervention of excess weight

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Ruoyan

2017-01-01

We combined an epidemic model with an objective function to minimize the weighted sum of people with excess weight and the cost of a medication and surgical intervention in the population. The epidemic model is consisted of ordinary differential equations to describe three subpopulation groups based on weight. We introduced an intervention using medication and surgery to deal with excess weight. An objective function is constructed taking into consideration the cost of the intervention as well as the weight distribution of the population. Using empirical data, we show that fixed participation rate reduces the size of obese population but increases the size for overweight. An optimal participation rate exists and decreases with respect to time. Both theoretical analysis and empirical example confirm the existence of an optimal participation rate, u*. Under u*, the weighted sum of overweight (S) and obese (O) population as well as the cost of the program is minimized. This article highlights the existence of an optimal participation rate that minimizes the number of people with excess weight and the cost of the intervention. The time-varying optimal participation rate could contribute to designing future public health interventions of excess weight.

Fishing Quotas, Induced Allee Effect, and Fluctuation-Driven Extinction.

PubMed

Hastings, Harold M; Radin, Michael; Wiandt, Tamas

2017-01-01

We explore the potential of modifications to standard fishery models (for example Gordon-Schafer-Munro) to help understand events such as the collapse of the North Atlantic cod fishery. In particular we find that quota-driven and similar harvesting strategies induce an effective strong Allee effect (collapse if the population falls below a critical level). In the presence of environmental noise, fish population dynamics is similar to a random walk with (non-linear) drift. The expected survival time (first passage time to collapse) is shown to depend sensitively upon the amount of environmental noise and size of the 'safe zone' between the deterministic steady state population and the critical population level at which the system collapses; more precisely it is exponential in the cube of the size of the safe zone divided by the variance of the noise process. Similar scaling can be expected for more survival in more general systems with multiple steady states. Our calculations imply an amplification effect under which small increases in harvest yield large decreases in expected survival time, and one should be cautious in changes in harvesting, especially in fisheries with poor or limited data and fisheries affected by climate change.

Inter-regional competition and quality in hospital care.

PubMed

Aiura, Hiroshi

2013-06-01

This study analyzes the effect of episode-of-care payment and patient choice on waiting time and the comprehensive quality of hospital care. The study assumes that two hospitals are located in two cities with different population sizes and compete with each other. We find that the comprehensive quality of hospital care as well as waiting time of both hospitals improve with an increase in payment per episode of care. However, we also find that the extent of these improvements differs according to the population size of the cities where the hospitals are located. Under the realistic assumptions that hospitals involve significant labor-intensive work, we find the improvements in comprehensive quality and waiting time in a hospital located in a small city to be greater than those in a hospital located in a large city. The result implies that regional disparity in the quality of hospital care decreases with an increase in payment per episode of care.

Biannual birth pulses allow filoviruses to persist in bat populations

PubMed Central

Hayman, David T. S.

2015-01-01

Filoviruses Ebolavirus (EBOV) and Marburgvirus (MARV) cause haemorrhagic fevers with high mortality rates, posing significant threats to public health. To understand transmission into human populations, filovirus dynamics within reservoir host populations must be understood. Studies have directly linked filoviruses to bats, but the mechanisms allowing viral persistence within bat populations are poorly understood. Theory suggests seasonal birthing may decrease the probability of pathogen persistence within populations, but data suggest MARV may persist within colonies of seasonally breeding Egyptian fruit bats, Rousettus aegyptiacus. I synthesize available filovirus and bat data in a stochastic compartmental model to explore fundamental questions relating to filovirus ecology: can filoviruses persist within isolated bat colonies; do critical community sizes exist; and how do host–pathogen relationships affect spillover transmission potential? Synchronous annual breeding and shorter incubation periods did not allow filovirus persistence, whereas bi-annual breeding and longer incubation periods, such as reported for Egyptian fruit bats and EBOV in experimental studies, allowed persistence in colony sizes often found in nature. Serological data support the findings, with bats from species with two annual birth pulses more likely to be seropositive (odds ratio (OR) 4.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.5–8.7) than those with one, suggesting that biannual birthing is necessary for filovirus persistence. PMID:25673678

[Modelling of selection acting upon the pleioptropic locus in an asynchronous population].

PubMed

Zhdanov, O L; Frisman, E Ia

2014-08-01

We created and examined a mathematical model describing the size and genetic composition dynamics in a population with two age classes, where the survival of both zygotes and adult individuals is determined by one pleioptropic locus. Even under present limitations, as the outside effects of a complex multigenic system are reduced to the case of single locus, our model demonstrates a wide range of different evolutionary scenarios for possible changes in the population dynamics. An increase in the reproductive potential and survival is accompanied by a transition from stable to oscillating population numbers. However, the evolutionary growth of these parameters may be nonmonotonic and may fluctuate significantly. In the case of antagonistic pleioptropy, an increase in one of these parameters usually leads to a predictable decrease in the other. This, in turn, may even stabilize the numbers and genetic compositions of the age groups. We demonstrated that selection acting on later stages of the life cycle is accompanied by destabilization of the Hardy-Weinberg equilibriums that link allele and genotype frequencies. We obtained a balance ratio, which allowed us to compare the combined fitness of the genotypes and to demonstrate that selection leads to the exclusion of the least adapted genotypes. Initial conditionsmay in some cases determine the genetic composition and pattern of population size dynamics.

Body condition of Morelet’s Crocodiles (Crocodylus moreletii) from northern Belize

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mazzotti, Frank J.; Cherkiss, Michael S.; Brandt, Laura A.; Fujisaki, Ikuko; Hart, Kristen; Jeffery, Brian; McMurry, Scott T.; Platt, Steven G.; Rainwater, Thomas R.; Vinci, Joy

2012-01-01

Body condition factors have been used as an indicator of health and well-being of crocodilians. We evaluated body condition of Morelet's Crocodiles (Crocodylus moreletii) in northern Belize in relation to biotic (size, sex, and habitat) and abiotic (location, water level, and air temperature) factors. We also tested the hypothesis that high water levels and warm temperatures combine or interact to result in a decrease in body condition. Size class, temperature, and water level explained 20% of the variability in condition of Morelet's Crocodiles in this study. We found that adult crocodiles had higher condition scores than juveniles/subadults but that sex, habitat, and site had no effect. We confirmed our hypothesis that warm temperatures and high water levels interact to decrease body condition. We related body condition of Morelet's Crocodiles to natural fluctuations in air temperatures and water levels in northern Belize, providing baseline conditions for population and ecosystem monitoring.

Factors influencing wild turkey hen survival in southcentral Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hubbard, M.W.; Garner, D.L.; Klaas, E.E.

1999-01-01

A decline in the population of eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) in southcentral Iowa necessitated more current estimates of population parameters. Survival of 126 eastern wild turkey hens in southcentral Iowa was investigated during 1993-96. Estimates of annual survival averaged 0.676 ?? 0.048% (x?? ?? SE) for adults and 0.713 ?? 0.125 for subadults. Mammalian predators, primarily coyotes (Canis latrans) and red fox (Vulpes fulva) accounted for 64% of all documented mortality. Age-specific annual survival distributions differed within years (P < 0.03), but no difference was detected in survival between age classes across years (P = 0.49). Based on chronological dates, survival of adult hens differed among seasons across years (P = 0.03). However, seasonal survival was not different when estimates were based on hen behavior (p = 0.48). Risk of mortality for hens increased by 2.0% for every 100-m increase in dispersal distance, decreased by 2.0% for every 10-ha increase in home range size, and decreased by 3.5% for each 1.0% increase in proportion of home range in woody cover. Although the exact cause of the population decline remains unknown, we suggest it was more likely related to a decrease in production than changes in hen survival. Declining turkey populations would likely benefit more from management designed to increase reproduction rather than hen survival.

Challenges and solutions in the evaluation of a low back pain disease management program.

PubMed

Kotsos, Thomas; Muldowney, Kevin; Chapa, Griselda; Martin, J Eric; Linares, Antonio

2009-02-01

This paper examines a novel approach to evaluating a nurse-run telephonic low back pain (LBP) disease management (DM) program offered by a fully-insured commercial health plan population with approximately 150,000 members located in the northeastern United States. Members with at least 6 member months of eligibility were identified to have LBP using administrative claims and eligibility data. The LBP program relies on telephonic nurse management augmented by printed materials, adapting and advocating HEDIS imaging guidelines, and drug utilization review. Outcomes of this LBP DM program were assessed using a pre-post population-based approach as recommended in the DMAA Outcomes Guidelines Report. Baseline year and program year populations were segmented into 5 LBP clinical categories and each was weight adjusted using population size. LBP-related medical service utilization and pharmacy utilization also were evaluated. Individuals under active LBP management exhibited a decrease in LBP-related imaging and surgeries. Overall analgesic use also decreased. These data suggest the LBP DM program is associated with a decrease in imaging, surgeries, and analgesic use. The magnitude of the clinically segmented weight-adjusted return on investment (ROI) was lower than the unadjusted ROI, but was directionally positive indicating program impact. This adjustment is necessary in order to gain insight into and consistency of the results of a comprehensive LBP DM program evaluation.

Micrometeoroid and Lunar Secondary Ejecta Flux Measurements: Comparison of Three Acoustic Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Corsaro, R. D.; Giovane, F.; Liou, Jer-Chyi; Burtchell, M.; Pisacane, V.; Lagakos, N.; Williams, E.; Stansbery, E.

2010-01-01

This report examines the inherent capability of three large-area acoustic sensor systems and their applicability for micrometeoroids (MM) and lunar secondary ejecta (SE) detection and characterization for future lunar exploration activities. Discussion is limited to instruments that can be fabricated and deployed with low resource requirements. Previously deployed impact detection probes typically have instrumented capture areas less than 0.2 square meters. Since the particle flux decreases rapidly with increased particle size, such small-area sensors rarely encounter particles in the size range above 50 microns, and even their sampling the population above 10 microns is typically limited. Characterizing the sparse dust population in the size range above 50 microns requires a very large-area capture instrument. However it is also important that such an instrument simultaneously measures the population of the smaller particles, so as to provide a complete instantaneous snapshot of the population. For lunar or planetary surface studies, the system constraints are significant. The instrument must be as large as possible to sample the population of the largest MM. This is needed to reliably assess the particle impact risks and to develop cost-effective shielding designs for habitats, astronauts, and critical instrument. The instrument should also have very high sensitivity to measure the flux of small and slow SE particles. is the SE environment is currently poorly characterized, and possess a contamination risk to machinery and personnel involved in exploration. Deployment also requires that the instrument add very little additional mass to the spacecraft. Three acoustic systems are being explored for this application.

Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change.

PubMed

Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

2015-10-01

Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates.

Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

2015-01-01

Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates. PMID:26501958

Fate of Listeria spp. on parsley leaves grown in laboratory and field cultures.

PubMed

Dreux, N; Albagnac, C; Carlin, F; Morris, C E; Nguyen-The, C

2007-11-01

To investigate the population dynamics of Listeria monocytogenes and Listeria innocua on the aerial surfaces of parsley. Under 100% relative humidity (RH) in laboratory and regardless of the inoculum tested (10(3)-10(8) CFU per leaf), counts of L. monocytogenes EGDe, LO28, LmP60 and L. innocua CIP 80-12 tended towards approx. 10(5) CFU per leaf. Under low RH, Listeria spp. populations declined regardless to the inoculum size (10(4)-10(8) CFU per leaf). L. innocua CIP 80-12 survived slightly better than L. monocytogenes in the laboratory and was used in field cultures. Under field cultures, counts of L. innocua decreased more rapidly than in the laboratory, representing a decrease of 9 log(10) in 2 days in field conditions compared to a decrease of 4.5 log(10) in 8 days in the laboratory. Counts of L. innocua on tunnel parsley cultures were always higher (at least by 100 times) than those on unprotected parsley culture. Even with a high inoculum and under protected conditions (i.e. plastic tunnels), population of L. monocytogenes on the surface of parsley on the field would decrease by several log(10) scales within 2 days. Direct contamination of aerial surfaces of parsley with L. monocytogenes (i.e. through contaminated irrigation water) will not lead to contaminated produce unless it occurs very shortly before harvest.

Role of patch size, disease, and movement in rapid extinction of bighorn sheep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, F.J.; Zeigenfuss, L.C.; Spicer, L.

2001-01-01

The controversy (Berger 1990, 1999; Wehausen 1999) over rapid extinction in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) has focused on population size alone as a correlate to persistence time. We report on the persistence and population performance of 24 translocated populations of bighorn sheep. Persistence in these sheep was strongly correlated with larger patch sizes, greater distance to domestic sheep, higher population growth rates, and migratory movements, as well as to larger population sizes. Persistence was also positively correlated with larger average home-range size (p = 0.058, n = 10 translocated populations) and home-range size of rams (p = 0.087, n = 8 translocated populations). Greater home-range size and dispersal rates of bighorn sheep were positively correlated to larger patches. We conclude that patch size and thus habitat carrying capacity, not population size per se, is the primary correlate to both population performance and persistence. Because habitat carrying capacity defines the upper limit to population size, clearly the amount of suitable habitat in a patch is ultimately linked to population size. Larger populations (250+ animals) were more likely to recover rapidly to their pre-epizootic survey number following an epizootic (p = 0.019), although the proportion of the population dying in the epizootic also influenced the probability of recovery (p = 0.001). Expensive management efforts to restore or increase bighorn sheep populations should focus on large habitat patches located ≥23 km from domestic sheep, and less effort should be expended on populations in isolated, small patches of habitat.

Effects of Long-Term Starvation on a Host Bivalve (Codakia orbicularis, Lucinidae) and Its Symbiont Population▿

PubMed Central

Caro, Audrey; Got, Patrice; Bouvy, Marc; Troussellier, Marc; Gros, Olivier

2009-01-01

The bivalve Codakia orbicularis, hosting sulfur-oxidizing gill endosymbionts, was starved (in artificial seawater filtered through a 0.22-μm-pore-size membrane) for a long-term experiment (4 months). The effects of starvation were observed using transmission electron microscopy, fluorescence in situ hybridization and catalyzed reporter deposition (CARD-FISH), and flow cytometry to monitor the anatomical and physiological modifications in the gill organization of the host and in the symbiotic population housed in bacteriocytes. The abundance of the symbiotic population decreased through starvation, with a loss of one-third of the bacterial population each month, as shown by CARD-FISH. At the same time, flow cytometry revealed significant changes in the physiology of symbiotic cells, with a decrease in cell size and modifications to the nucleic acid content, while most of the symbionts maintained a high respiratory activity (measured using the 5-cyano-2,3-ditolyl tetrazolium chloride method). Progressively, the number of symbiont subpopulations was reduced, and the subsequent multigenomic state, characteristic of this symbiont in freshly collected clams, turned into one and five equivalent genome copies for the two remaining subpopulations after 3 months. Concomitant structural modifications appeared in the gill organization. Lysosymes became visible in the bacteriocytes, while large symbionts disappeared, and bacteriocytes were gradually replaced by granule cells throughout the entire lateral zone. Those data suggested that host survival under these starvation conditions was linked to symbiont digestion as the main nutritional source. PMID:19346359

Neighbour effects on Erica multiflora (Ericaceae) reproductive performance after clipping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vilà, Montserrat; Terradas, Jaume

1998-04-01

The effect of interspecific competition on resprouting and reproductive success and the relationship between above-ground vegetative biomass variability and reproductive biomass variability were analysed during resprouting after clipping. For this purpose, a field experiment was performed by removing neighbours around individuals of Erica multiflora in a Mediterranean shrub community. Removal of neighbours increased the number of sprouts and the above-ground vegetative biomass of target plants. However, it did not decrease plant size variability. Neighbours decreased the likelihood of fruiting and the biomass of fruits. In target plants that had set fruits a simple allometric relationship between above-ground vegetative biomass and the biomass of fruits explained 42% of the variation in fruit biomass. The probability to set fruits at a given plant size was smaller in plants with neighbours than without neighbours. Presence of neighbours also increased the variability of fruit biomass within the population, because 50% of target plants with neighbours did not set fruits. This failure to set fruits may be related to shading, the small size of plants with neighbours, as well as a delay in development.

Status and trends of adult Lost River (Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose (Chasmistes brevirostris) sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hewitt, David A.; Janney, Eric C.; Hayes, Brian S.; Harris, Alta C.

2017-07-21

Executive SummaryData from a long-term capture-recapture program were used to assess the status and dynamics of populations of two long-lived, federally endangered catostomids in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. Lost River suckers (LRS; Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose suckers (SNS; Chasmistes brevirostris) have been captured and tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags during their spawning migrations in each year since 1995. In addition, beginning in 2005, individuals that had been previously PIT-tagged were re-encountered on remote underwater antennas deployed throughout sucker spawning areas. Captures and remote encounters during the spawning season in spring 2015 were incorporated into capture-recapture analyses of population dynamics. Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) open population capture-recapture models were used to estimate annual survival probabilities, and a reverse-time analog of the CJS model was used to estimate recruitment of new individuals into the spawning populations. In addition, data on the size composition of captured fish were examined to provide corroborating evidence of recruitment. Separate analyses were done for each species and also for each subpopulation of LRS. Shortnose suckers and one subpopulation of LRS migrate into tributary rivers to spawn, whereas the other LRS subpopulation spawns at groundwater upwelling areas along the eastern shoreline of the lake. Characteristics of the spawning migrations in 2015, such as the effects of temperature on the timing of the migrations, were similar to past years.Capture-recapture analyses for the LRS subpopulation that spawns at the shoreline areas included encounter histories for 13,617 individuals, and analyses for the subpopulation that spawns in the rivers included 39,321 encounter histories. With a few exceptions, the survival of males and females in both subpopulations was high (greater than or equal to 0.86) between 1999 and 2013. Survival was notably lower for males from the rivers in 2000, 2006, and 2012. Survival probabilities were lower for males from the shoreline areas in 2002. Between 2001 and 2014, the abundance of males in the lakeshore spawning subpopulation decreased by at least 59 percent and the abundance of females decreased by at least 53 percent. By combining information from capture-recapture models and size composition data, we concluded that the abundance of both sexes in the river spawning subpopulation of LRS likely has decreased at rates similar to the rates for the lakeshore spawning subpopulation between 2002 and 2014. Capture-recapture analyses for SNS included encounter histories for 20,981 individuals. Most annual survival estimates between 2005 and 2009 were high (greater than 0.88), but both sexes of SNS experienced lower and more variable survival in 2001–04 and 2010–13. The best-case scenario for SNS, based on capture-recapture recruitment modeling, indicates that the abundance of males in the spawning population decreased by 77 percent and the abundance of females decreased by 74 percent between 2001 and 2014. Decreases in abundance for both sexes likely are greater than these estimates indicate. Despite relatively high survival in most years, we conclude that both species have experienced substantial decreases in the abundance of spawning adults because losses from mortality have not been balanced by recruitment of new individuals. The status of the endangered sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake remains worrisome, especially for SNS.

Climatic and geographic predictors of life history variation in Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus): A range-wide synthesis.

PubMed

Hileman, Eric T; King, Richard B; Adamski, John M; Anton, Thomas G; Bailey, Robyn L; Baker, Sarah J; Bieser, Nickolas D; Bell, Thomas A; Bissell, Kristin M; Bradke, Danielle R; Campa, Henry; Casper, Gary S; Cedar, Karen; Cross, Matthew D; DeGregorio, Brett A; Dreslik, Michael J; Faust, Lisa J; Harvey, Daniel S; Hay, Robert W; Jellen, Benjamin C; Johnson, Brent D; Johnson, Glenn; Kiel, Brooke D; Kingsbury, Bruce A; Kowalski, Matthew J; Lee, Yu Man; Lentini, Andrew M; Marshall, John C; Mauger, David; Moore, Jennifer A; Paloski, Rori A; Phillips, Christopher A; Pratt, Paul D; Preney, Thomas; Prior, Kent A; Promaine, Andrew; Redmer, Michael; Reinert, Howard K; Rouse, Jeremy D; Shoemaker, Kevin T; Sutton, Scott; VanDeWalle, Terry J; Weatherhead, Patrick J; Wynn, Doug; Yagi, Anne

2017-01-01

Elucidating how life history traits vary geographically is important to understanding variation in population dynamics. Because many aspects of ectotherm life history are climate-dependent, geographic variation in climate is expected to have a large impact on population dynamics through effects on annual survival, body size, growth rate, age at first reproduction, size-fecundity relationship, and reproductive frequency. The Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus) is a small, imperiled North American rattlesnake with a distribution centered on the Great Lakes region, where lake effects strongly influence local conditions. To address Eastern Massasauga life history data gaps, we compiled data from 47 study sites representing 38 counties across the range. We used multimodel inference and general linear models with geographic coordinates and annual climate normals as explanatory variables to clarify patterns of variation in life history traits. We found strong evidence for geographic variation in six of nine life history variables. Adult female snout-vent length and neonate mass increased with increasing mean annual precipitation. Litter size decreased with increasing mean temperature, and the size-fecundity relationship and growth prior to first hibernation both increased with increasing latitude. The proportion of gravid females also increased with increasing latitude, but this relationship may be the result of geographically varying detection bias. Our results provide insights into ectotherm life history variation and fill critical data gaps, which will inform Eastern Massasauga conservation efforts by improving biological realism for models of population viability and climate change.

Empirical tests of harvest-induced body-size evolution along a geographic gradient in Australian macropods.

PubMed

Prowse, Thomas A A; Correll, Rachel A; Johnson, Christopher N; Prideaux, Gavin J; Brook, Barry W

2015-01-01

Life-history theory predicts the progressive dwarfing of animal populations that are subjected to chronic mortality stress, but the evolutionary impact of harvesting terrestrial herbivores has seldom been tested. In Australia, marsupials of the genus Macropus (kangaroos and wallabies) are subjected to size-selective commercial harvesting. Mathematical modelling suggests that harvest quotas (c. 10-20% of population estimates annually) could be driving body-size evolution in these species. We tested this hypothesis for three harvested macropod species with continental-scale distributions. To do so, we measured more than 2000 macropod skulls sourced from wildlife collections spanning the last 130 years. We analysed these data using spatial Bayesian models that controlled for the age and sex of specimens as well as environmental drivers and island effects. We found no evidence for the hypothesized decline in body size for any species; rather, models that fit trend terms supported minor body size increases over time. This apparently counterintuitive result is consistent with reduced mortality due to a depauperate predator guild and increased primary productivity of grassland vegetation following European settlement in Australia. Spatial patterns in macropod body size supported the heat dissipation limit and productivity hypotheses proposed to explain geographic body-size variation (i.e. skull size increased with decreasing summer maximum temperature and increasing rainfall, respectively). There is no empirical evidence that size-selective harvesting has driven the evolution of smaller body size in Australian macropods. Bayesian models are appropriate for investigating the long-term impact of human harvesting because they can impute missing data, fit nonlinear growth models and account for non-random spatial sampling inherent in wildlife collections. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Uncertainty in Population Estimates for Endangered Animals and Improving the Recovery Process.

PubMed

Haines, Aaron M; Zak, Matthew; Hammond, Katie; Scott, J Michael; Goble, Dale D; Rachlow, Janet L

2013-08-13

United States recovery plans contain biological information for a species listed under the Endangered Species Act and specify recovery criteria to provide basis for species recovery. The objective of our study was to evaluate whether recovery plans provide uncertainty (e.g., variance) with estimates of population size. We reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species to record the following data: (1) if a current population size was given, (2) if a measure of uncertainty or variance was associated with current estimates of population size and (3) if population size was stipulated for recovery. We found that 59% of completed recovery plans specified a current population size, 14.5% specified a variance for the current population size estimate and 43% specified population size as a recovery criterion. More recent recovery plans reported more estimates of current population size, uncertainty and population size as a recovery criterion. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty compared to reptiles and amphibians. We suggest the use of calculating minimum detectable differences to improve confidence when delisting endangered animals and we identified incentives for individuals to get involved in recovery planning to improve access to quantitative data.

Dynamic size responses to climate change: prevailing effects of rising temperature drive long-term body size increases in a semi-arid passerine.

PubMed

Gardner, Janet L; Amano, Tatsuya; Mackey, Brendan G; Sutherland, William J; Clayton, Mark; Peters, Anne

2014-07-01

Changes in animal body size have been widely reported as a correlate of contemporary climate change. Body size affects metabolism and fitness, so changing size has implications for resilience, yet the climatic factors that drive size variation remain poorly understood. We test the role of mean and extreme temperature, rainfall, and remotely sensed primary productivity (NDVI) as drivers of body size in a sedentary, semi-arid Australian passerine, Ptilotula (Lichenostomus)penicillatus, over 23 years. To distinguish effects due to differential growth from changes in population composition, we analysed first-year birds and adults separately and considered climatic variation at three temporal scales (current, previous, and preceding 5 years). The strongest effects related to temperature: in both age classes, larger size was associated with warmer mean temperatures in the previous year, contrary to Bergmann's Rule. Moreover, adults were larger in warmer breeding seasons, while first years was larger after heat waves; these effects are more likely to be mediated through size-dependent mortality, highlighting the role of body size in determining vulnerability to extinction. In addition to temperature, larger adult size was associated with lower primary productivity, which may reflect a trade-off between vegetative growth and nectar production, on which adults rely. Finally, lower rainfall was associated with decreasing size in first year and adults, most likely related to decreased food availability. Overall,body size increased over 23 years, strongly in first-year birds (2.7%) compared with adults (1%), with size outcomes a balance between competing drivers. As rainfall declined over time and productivity remained fairly stable, the temporal increase in body size appears largely driven by rising mean temperature and temperature extremes. Body size responses to environmental change are thus complex and dynamic, driven by effects on growth as well as mortality.

Evidence of market-driven size-selective fishing and the mediating effects of biological and institutional factors.

PubMed

Reddy, Sheila M W; Wentz, Allison; Aburto-Oropeza, Octavio; Maxey, Martin; Nagavarapu, Sriniketh; Leslie, Heather M

2013-06-01

Market demand is often ignored or assumed to lead uniformly to the decline of resources. Yet little is known about how market demand influences natural resources in particular contexts, or the mediating effects of biological or institutional factors. Here, we investigate this problem by examining the Pacific red snapper (Lutjanus peru) fishery around La Paz, Mexico, where medium or "plate-sized" fish are sold to restaurants at a premium price. If higher demand for plate-sized fish increases the relative abundance of the smallest (recruit size class) and largest (most fecund) fish, this may be a market mechanism to increase stocks and fishermen's revenues. We tested this hypothesis by estimating the effect of prices on the distribution of catch across size classes using daily records of prices and catch. We linked predictions from this economic choice model to a staged-based model of the fishery to estimate the effects on the stock and revenues from harvest. We found that the supply of plate-sized fish increased by 6%, while the supply of large fish decreased by 4% as a result of a 13% price premium for plate-sized fish. This market-driven size selection increased revenues (14%) but decreased total fish biomass (-3%). However, when market-driven size selection was combined with limited institutional constraints, both fish biomass (28%) and fishermen's revenue (22%) increased. These results show that the direction and magnitude of the effects of market demand on biological populations and human behavior can depend on both biological attributes and institutional constraints. Fisheries management may capitalize on these conditional effects by implementing size-based regulations when economic and institutional incentives will enhance compliance, as in the case we describe here, or by creating compliance enhancing conditions for existing regulations.

Life-History Traits and Population Structure of Pederson Cleaner Shrimps Ancylomenes pedersoni.

PubMed

Gilpin, Jessica A; Chadwick, Nanette E

2017-12-01

Cleaner organisms perform key functional roles in reducing rates of parasitism in marine communities. Pederson cleaner shrimps Ancylomenes pedersoni are major cleaners of reef fishes in the tropical western Atlantic and form obligate symbioses with host sea anemones. Information about their life-history traits would contribute to understanding how symbiosis impacts life-history evolution in crustaceans, but little is known about patterns of growth and reproduction in this anemone shrimp. We quantified growth, sexual reproduction, senescence, and mortality in individuals of A. pedersoni under laboratory conditions and their abundance and population size structure on coral reefs in St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands. Von Bertalanffy growth curves were fitted to the data to determine age-size relationships, and the Beverton-Holt model was used to estimate mortality rates and size at maximum yield. Individuals grew rapidly when young, then slowed their growth after reaching sexual maturity at ~6 months. Individuals were gonochoric, with males attaining significantly smaller body sizes and shorter life spans than did females. Prior to death at <2 years, members of both genders exhibited senescence during which they ceased reproducing, shrank (females only), and decreased their activity levels over ~1-4 weeks. Field populations were abundant and composed mostly of juveniles during both years examined. Populations appeared to be stable but highly dynamic in terms of individuals, reaching maximum yield at 4 months of age. We conclude that obligate symbiosis with large sea anemones and cleaner mutualism with reef fishes both contribute to explaining aspects of the life history of Pederson shrimps, especially their apparent mating system of pure-search polygynandry. This life-history information also provides a scientific basis for sustainable fishery management and aquaculture of this key coral reef organism.

Expected effects of reducing Oestrus ovis L. mature larval weight on adult populations.

PubMed

Cepeda-Palacios, R; Frugère, S; Dorchies, P

2000-06-27

In order to estimate the effects of eventual reductions in larval weight (LW) of Oestrus ovis L. as a measure of control, the correlation between mature LW and adult fly length (AL) in laboratory specimens (n=150) was calculated. The regression equation AL=5.62+10.65LW (r(2)=0.76) was obtained. This equation was then applied to estimate the mature LW of wild larvipositing females (n=51) to predict the minimum mature LW at which fly viability would be compromised. The critical weight, 0.28 g (standard error limits 0. 235, 0.323), was obtained from a small fly measuring 8.6mm in length. Data from 383 mature third instars were used to estimate, by statistical analysis, the expected effects of decreasing the mature LW on subsequent fly population size. A considerable mean reduction (38%) in adult populations might be achieved by a 40% reduction of mature LW, but this eventual reduction may be temporary due to the high reproductive rate in this species. Sex differences in mature LW and fly size are also reported.

Contrasting effects of temperature and precipitation change on amphibian phenology, abundance and performance.

PubMed

Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Maiorano, Luigi

2016-07-01

Climate change is determining a generalized phenological advancement, and amphibians are among the taxa showing the strongest phenological responsiveness to warming temperatures. Amphibians are strongly influenced by climate change, but we do not have a clear picture of how climate influences important parameters of amphibian populations, such as abundance, survival, breeding success and morphology. Furthermore, the relative impact of temperature and precipitation change remains underappreciated. We used Bayesian meta-analysis and meta-regression to quantify the impact of temperature and precipitation change on amphibian phenology, abundance, individual features and performance. We obtained effect sizes from studies performed in five continents. Temperature increase was the major driver of phenological advancement, while the impact of precipitation on phenology was weak. Conversely, population dynamics was mostly determined by precipitation: negative trends were associated with drying regimes. The impact of precipitation on abundance was particularly strong in tropical areas, while the importance of temperature was feeble. Both temperature and precipitation influenced parameters representing breeding performance, morphology, developmental rate and survival, but the response was highly heterogeneous among species. For instance, warming temperature increased body size in some species, and decreased size in others. Similarly, rainy periods increased survival of some species and reduced the survival of others. Our study showed contrasting impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on amphibian populations. Both climatic parameters strongly influenced amphibian performance, but temperature was the major determinant of the phenological changes, while precipitation had the major role on population dynamics, with alarming declines associated with drying trends.

Population and prehistory III: food-dependent demography in variable environments.

PubMed

Lee, Charlotte T; Puleston, Cedric O; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

2009-11-01

The population dynamics of preindustrial societies depend intimately on their surroundings, and food is a primary means through which environment influences population size and individual well-being. Food production requires labor; thus, dependence of survival and fertility on food involves dependence of a population's future on its current state. We use a perturbation approach to analyze the effects of random environmental variation on this nonlinear, age-structured system. We show that in expanding populations, direct environmental effects dominate induced population fluctuations, so environmental variability has little effect on mean hunger levels, although it does decrease population growth. The growth rate determines the time until population is limited by space. This limitation introduces a tradeoff between population density and well-being, so population effects become more important than the direct effects of the environment: environmental fluctuation increases mortality, releasing density dependence and raising average well-being for survivors. We discuss the social implications of these findings for the long-term fate of populations as they transition from expansion into limitation, given that conditions leading to high well-being during growth depress well-being during limitation.

Linkage disequilibrium, persistence of phase, and effective population size in Spanish local beef cattle breeds assessed through a high-density single nucleotide polymorphism chip.

PubMed

Cañas-Álvarez, J J; Mouresan, E F; Varona, L; Díaz, C; Molina, A; Baro, J A; Altarriba, J; Carabaño, M J; Casellas, J; Piedrafita, J

2016-07-01

Linkage disequilibrium (LD) and persistence of phase are fundamental approaches for exploring the genetic basis of economically important traits in cattle, including the identification of QTL for genomic selection and the estimation of effective population size () to determine the size of the training populations. In this study, we have used the Illumina BovineHD chip in 168 trios of 7 Spanish beef cattle breeds to obtain an overview of the magnitude of LD and the persistence of LD phase through the physical distance between markers. Also, we estimated the time of divergence based on the persistence of the LD phase and calculated past from LD estimates using different alternatives to define the recombination rate. Estimates of average (as a measure of LD) for adjacent markers were close to 0.52 in the 7 breeds and decreased with the distance between markers, although in long distances, some LD still remained (0.07 and 0.05 for markers 200 kb and 1 Mb apart, respectively). A panel with a lower boundary of 38,000 SNP would be necessary to launch a successful within-breed genomic selection program. Persistence of phase, measured as the pairwise correlations between estimates of in 2 breeds at short distances (10 kb), was in the 0.89 to 0.94 range and decreased from 0.33 to 0.52 to a range of 0.01 to 0.08 when marker distance increased from 200 kb to 1 Mb, respectively. The magnitude of the persistence of phase between the Spanish beef breeds was similar to those found in dairy breeds. For across-breed genomic selection, the size of the SNP panels must be in the range of 50,000 to 83,000 SNP. Estimates of past showed values ranging from 26 to 31 for 1 generation ago in all breeds. The divergence among breeds occurred between 129 and 207 generations ago. The results of this study are relevant for the future implementation of within- and across-breed genomic selection programs in the Spanish beef cattle populations. Our results suggest that a reduced subset of the SNP panel would be enough to achieve an adequate precision of the genomic predictions.

Decline of recent seabirds inferred from a composite 1000-year record of population dynamics

PubMed Central

Xu, Liqiang; Liu, Xiaodong; Wu, Libin; Sun, Liguang; Zhao, Jinjun; Chen, Lin

2016-01-01

Based on three ornithogenic sediment profiles and seabird subfossils therein from the Xisha Islands, South China Sea, the relative population size of seabirds over the past 1000 years was reconstructed using reflectance spectrum. Here we present an apparent increase and subsequent decline of seabirds on these islands in the South China Sea. Seabird populations peaked during the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1400–1850 AD), implying that the cool climate during the LIA appears to have been more favorable to seabirds on the Xisha Islands in the South China Sea. Climate change partly explains the recent decrease in seabird populations over the past 150 years, but the significant decline and almost complete disappearance thereof on most of the Xisha Islands is probably attributable to human disturbance. Our study reveals the increasing impact of anthropogenic activities on seabird population in recent times. PMID:27748366

Using multiple data types and integrated population models to improve our knowledge of apex predator population dynamics.

PubMed

Bled, Florent; Belant, Jerrold L; Van Daele, Lawrence J; Svoboda, Nathan; Gustine, David; Hilderbrand, Grant; Barnes, Victor G

2017-11-01

Current management of large carnivores is informed using a variety of parameters, methods, and metrics; however, these data are typically considered independently. Sharing information among data types based on the underlying ecological, and recognizing observation biases, can improve estimation of individual and global parameters. We present a general integrated population model (IPM), specifically designed for brown bears ( Ursus arctos ), using three common data types for bear ( U . spp.) populations: repeated counts, capture-mark-recapture, and litter size. We considered factors affecting ecological and observation processes for these data. We assessed the practicality of this approach on a simulated population and compared estimates from our model to values used for simulation and results from count data only. We then present a practical application of this general approach adapted to the constraints of a case study using historical data available for brown bears on Kodiak Island, Alaska, USA. The IPM provided more accurate and precise estimates than models accounting for repeated count data only, with credible intervals including the true population 94% and 5% of the time, respectively. For the Kodiak population, we estimated annual average litter size (within one year after birth) to vary between 0.45 [95% credible interval: 0.43; 0.55] and 1.59 [1.55; 1.82]. We detected a positive relationship between salmon availability and adult survival, with survival probabilities greater for females than males. Survival probabilities increased from cubs to yearlings to dependent young ≥2 years old and decreased with litter size. Linking multiple information sources based on ecological and observation mechanisms can provide more accurate and precise estimates, to better inform management. IPMs can also reduce data collection efforts by sharing information among agencies and management units. Our approach responds to an increasing need in bear populations' management and can be readily adapted to other large carnivores.

Time evolution of predictability of epidemics on networks.

PubMed

Holme, Petter; Takaguchi, Taro

2015-04-01

Epidemic outbreaks of new pathogens, or known pathogens in new populations, cause a great deal of fear because they are hard to predict. For theoretical models of disease spreading, on the other hand, quantities characterizing the outbreak converge to deterministic functions of time. Our goal in this paper is to shed some light on this apparent discrepancy. We measure the diversity of (and, thus, the predictability of) outbreak sizes and extinction times as functions of time given different scenarios of the amount of information available. Under the assumption of perfect information-i.e., knowing the state of each individual with respect to the disease-the predictability decreases exponentially, or faster, with time. The decay is slowest for intermediate values of the per-contact transmission probability. With a weaker assumption on the information available, assuming that we know only the fraction of currently infectious, recovered, or susceptible individuals, the predictability also decreases exponentially most of the time. There are, however, some peculiar regions in this scenario where the predictability decreases. In other words, to predict its final size with a given accuracy, we would need increasingly more information about the outbreak.

Time evolution of predictability of epidemics on networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holme, Petter; Takaguchi, Taro

2015-04-01

Epidemic outbreaks of new pathogens, or known pathogens in new populations, cause a great deal of fear because they are hard to predict. For theoretical models of disease spreading, on the other hand, quantities characterizing the outbreak converge to deterministic functions of time. Our goal in this paper is to shed some light on this apparent discrepancy. We measure the diversity of (and, thus, the predictability of) outbreak sizes and extinction times as functions of time given different scenarios of the amount of information available. Under the assumption of perfect information—i.e., knowing the state of each individual with respect to the disease—the predictability decreases exponentially, or faster, with time. The decay is slowest for intermediate values of the per-contact transmission probability. With a weaker assumption on the information available, assuming that we know only the fraction of currently infectious, recovered, or susceptible individuals, the predictability also decreases exponentially most of the time. There are, however, some peculiar regions in this scenario where the predictability decreases. In other words, to predict its final size with a given accuracy, we would need increasingly more information about the outbreak.

Introgression Makes Waves in Inferred Histories of Effective Population Size.

PubMed

Hawks, John

2017-01-01

Human populations have a complex history of introgression and of changing population size. Human genetic variation has been affected by both these processes, so inference of past population size depends upon the pattern of gene flow and introgression among past populations. One remarkable aspect of human population history as inferred from genetics is a consistent "wave" of larger effective population sizes, found in both African and non-African populations, that appears to reflect events prior to the last 100,000 years. I carried out a series of simulations to investigate how introgression and gene flow from genetically divergent ancestral populations affect the inference of ancestral effective population size. Both introgression and gene flow from an extinct, genetically divergent population consistently produce a wave in the history of inferred effective population size. The time and amplitude of the wave reflect the time of origin of the genetically divergent ancestral populations and the strength of introgression or gene flow. These results demonstrate that even small fractions of introgression or gene flow from ancient populations may have visible effects on the inference of effective population size.

Local extinction and recolonization, species effective population size, and modern human origins.

PubMed

Eller, Elise; Hawks, John; Relethford, John H

2004-10-01

A primary objection from a population genetics perspective to a multiregional model of modern human origins is that the model posits a large census size, whereas genetic data suggest a small effective population size. The relationship between census size and effective size is complex, but arguments based on an island model of migration show that if the effective population size reflects the number of breeding individuals and the effects of population subdivision, then an effective population size of 10,000 is inconsistent with the census size of 500,000 to 1,000,000 that has been suggested by archeological evidence. However, these models have ignored the effects of population extinction and recolonization, which increase the expected variance among demes and reduce the inbreeding effective population size. Using models developed for population extinction and recolonization, we show that a large census size consistent with the multiregional model can be reconciled with an effective population size of 10,000, but genetic variation among demes must be high, reflecting low interdeme migration rates and a colonization process that involves a small number of colonists or kin-structured colonization. Ethnographic and archeological evidence is insufficient to determine whether such demographic conditions existed among Pleistocene human populations, and further work needs to be done. More realistic models that incorporate isolation by distance and heterogeneity in extinction rates and effective deme sizes also need to be developed. However, if true, a process of population extinction and recolonization has interesting implications for human demographic history.

Inability of populations of Callosobruchus maculatus to develop tolerance to exposures of acute gamma irradiation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brower, J.H.

1974-03-01

The reproductive capacity and resistance to an acute dose of gamma irradiation were determined for populations of Callosobruchus maculatus treated with substerilizing doses of irradiation each generation for 30 generations. Reproductive capacity was decreased by an ancestral history of irradiation, the reduction being positively correlated with both the size of dose per generation and the number of ancestral generations treated. Irradiation of the selected populations with an acute dose revealed no increase in tolerance, even after 30 generations. In general, the greater the amount of accumulated ancestral exposure to irradiation, the greater the sensitivity to further irradiation. The ability tomore » develop a tolerance to ionizing irradiation may not be a general phenomenon in insects. (auth)« less

Reduced recruitment in Hyalella azteca (Saussure, 1858) exposed to copper.

PubMed

Othman, M Shuhaimi; Pascoe, David

2002-09-01

Neonates of the amphipod Hyalella azteca were exposed for a 35-day period in the laboratory to a range of copper concentrations, nominally 18 microg/l, 40 microg/l, 70 microg/l and 260 microg/l. The reproductive status of the population was assessed by recording recruitment, the number of precopulatory pairs and number of gravid females. At the end of the experiment, the body lengths of individuals were measured using image analysis. There was a significant decrease in the final population size of H. azteca with increasing copper concentration and compared with the control. Copper significantly reduced recruitment of juveniles and length composition of the final population and there was also a trend toward reduced precopula number with increasing copper concentrations.

Sexually antagonistic polymorphism in simultaneous hermaphrodites

PubMed Central

Jordan, Crispin Y.; Connallon, Tim

2015-01-01

In hermaphrodites, pleiotropic genetic tradeoffs between female and male reproductive functions can lead to sexually antagonistic (SA) selection, where individual alleles have conflicting fitness effects on each sex function. While an extensive theory of SA selection exists for dioecious species, these results have not been generalized to hermaphrodites. We develop population genetic models of SA selection in simultaneous hermaphrodites, and evaluate effects of dominance, selection on each sex function, self-fertilization, and population size, on the maintenance of polymorphism. Under obligate outcrossing, hermaphrodite model predictions converge exactly with those of dioecious populations. Self-fertilization in hermaphrodites generates three points of divergence with dioecious theory. First, opportunities for stable polymorphism decline sharply and become less sensitive to dominance with increased selfing. Second, selfing introduces an asymmetry in the relative importance of selection through male versus female reproductive functions, expands the parameter space favorable for the evolutionary invasion of female-beneficial alleles, and restricts invasion criteria for male-beneficial alleles. Finally, contrary to models of unconditionally beneficial alleles, selfing decreases genetic hitchhiking effects of invading SA alleles, and should therefore decrease these population genetic signals of SA polymorphisms. We discuss implications of SA selection in hermaphrodites, including its potential role in the evolution of “selfing syndromes”. PMID:25311368

International security linked to population and environment.

PubMed

1999-01-01

40 representatives from the mass media and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), as well as experts in the field, attended a meeting of the Council on Population Education (CPE) on November 20, 1998, to discuss global issues and population concerns. Hiroyuki Ishi, a University of Tokyo professor, argued that the current global population of 6 billion people is placing increasing pressure upon the environment and that the outlook for the natural resources of forests, water, energy, and food was not good. As population sizes increase, competition also increases for water, arable land, and resources, and therefore the capacity of the environment to support the population decreases, leading to social unrest. 101 small wars have been waged between 1989 and 1996, indirectly due to population pressures. A 1969 conflict between Honduras and El Salvador, and the conflicts between Hutus and Tutsis in Rwanda, Zaire, and Tanzania are noted as examples. Rome Club projections made in 1972 have not been realized and new environmental crises will be caused by the growing lack of renewable resources caused by war.

[Effective size of subpopulation of the early run sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka from Azabach's Lake (Kamchatka): effect of density on variance of reproductive success].

PubMed

Efremov, V V; Parenskiĭ, V A

2004-04-01

Using Parensky's approach for estimating the number of breeding pairs, we determined effective subpopulation size Ne in early-run sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka from Azabach'e Lake (Kamchatka) in 1977 through 1981. On average (over years and populations), biased sex ratio decreased Ne by 7% as compared to the number of fish on the spawning sites (Ni). High density reduced the Ne/Ni ratio by 62-66% because some fish were excluded from spawning. Dominance polygyny as compared to monogamy and random union of gametes could reduce Ne by about 17%.

Alternative reproductive tactics increase effective population size and decrease inbreeding in wild Atlantic salmon

PubMed Central

Perrier, Charles; Normandeau, Éric; Dionne, Mélanie; Richard, Antoine; Bernatchez, Louis

2014-01-01

While nonanadromous males (stream-resident and/or mature male parr) contribute to reproduction in anadromous salmonids, little is known about their impacts on key population genetic parameters. Here, we evaluated the contribution of Atlantic salmon mature male parr to the effective number of breeders (Nb) using both demographic (variance in reproductive success) and genetic (linkage disequilibrium) methods, the number of alleles, and the relatedness among breeders. We used a recently published pedigree reconstruction of a wild anadromous Atlantic salmon population in which 2548 fry born in 2010 were assigned parentage to 144 anadromous female and 101 anadromous females that returned to the river to spawn in 2009 and to 462 mature male parr. Demographic and genetic methods revealed that mature male parr increased population Nb by 1.79 and 1.85 times, respectively. Moreover, mature male parr boosted the number of alleles found among progenies. Finally, mature male parr were in average less related to anadromous females than were anadromous males, likely because of asynchronous sexual maturation between mature male parr and anadromous fish of a given cohort. By increasing Nb and allelic richness, and by decreasing inbreeding, the reproductive contribution of mature male parr has important evolutionary and conservation implications for declining Atlantic salmon populations. PMID:25553070

The recent history and population structure of five Mandarina snail species from subtropical Ogasawara (Bonin Islands, Japan).

PubMed

Davison, Angus; Chiba, Satoshi

2006-09-01

The effect of Pleistocene climate change on the organisms of tropical and subtropical regions is rather poorly understood. We therefore studied the land snail genus Mandarina (Bradybaenidae) of oceanic Ogasawara (Bonin Islands, Japan), with the aim of using population genetic data to understand their recent history. Our analysis of a mitochondrial 16S ribosomal RNA region from more than 600 snails in five ground-living species suggests that populations on the small islands of Mukoujima, Anejima, Imotojima and Meijima, as well as on the low-lying southern and central parts of Hahajima, have probably undergone recent bottlenecks followed by subsequent expansions. Except between the main island of Hahajima and Mukouijima, there is almost no evidence for gene flow among islands even though the islands were connected repeatedly by land bridges through the Pleistocene. Within islands the population structure is severe, suggestive of a long-term, low level of gene flow (F(ST) is frequently greater than 0.5 among geographically close populations). Finally, there is a marked genetic patchiness, meaning that genetically close populations are sometimes separated by genetically distant populations. These patterns could be a consequence of expansion from bottlenecks, low active dispersal and founder effects caused by rare long-distance migrants. Unfortunately, the exact nature of the refugia and bottlenecks remains unknown because the palaeoclimate of this region is poorly understood. Dating the population size changes is also challenging because the molecular clock is uncertain. We suggest, however, that arid conditions or deforestation induced by decreased atmospheric CO(2) may have been the main factor in determining population size.

Do we have to choose between feeding the human population and conserving nature? Modelling the global dependence of people on ecosystem services.

PubMed

Cazalis, Victor; Loreau, Michel; Henderson, Kirsten

2018-09-01

The ability of the human population to continue growing depends strongly on the ecosystem services provided by nature. Nature, however, is becoming more and more degraded as the number of individuals increases, which could potentially threaten the future well-being of the human population. We use a dynamic model to conceptualise links between the global proportion of natural habitats and human demography, through four categories of ecosystem services (provisioning, regulating, cultural recreational and informational) to investigate the common future of nature and humanity in terms of size and well-being. Our model shows that there is generally a trade-off between the quality of life and human population size and identifies four short-term scenarios, corresponding to three long-term steady states of the model. First, human population could experience declines if nature becomes too degraded and regulating services diminish; second the majority of the population could be in a famine state, where the population continues to grow with minimal food provision. Between these scenarios, a desirable future scenario emerges from the model. It occurs if humans convert enough land to feed all the population, while maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services. Finally, we find a fourth scenario, which combines famine and a decline in the population because of an overexploitation of land leading to a decrease in food production. Human demography is embedded in natural dynamics; the two factors should be considered together if we are to identify a desirable future for both nature and humans. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Factoring vs linear modeling in rate estimation: a simulation study of relative accuracy.

PubMed

Maldonado, G; Greenland, S

1998-07-01

A common strategy for modeling dose-response in epidemiology is to transform ordered exposures and covariates into sets of dichotomous indicator variables (that is, to factor the variables). Factoring tends to increase estimation variance, but it also tends to decrease bias and thus may increase or decrease total accuracy. We conducted a simulation study to examine the impact of factoring on the accuracy of rate estimation. Factored and unfactored Poisson regression models were fit to follow-up study datasets that were randomly generated from 37,500 population model forms that ranged from subadditive to supramultiplicative. In the situations we examined, factoring sometimes substantially improved accuracy relative to fitting the corresponding unfactored model, sometimes substantially decreased accuracy, and sometimes made little difference. The difference in accuracy between factored and unfactored models depended in a complicated fashion on the difference between the true and fitted model forms, the strength of exposure and covariate effects in the population, and the study size. It may be difficult in practice to predict when factoring is increasing or decreasing accuracy. We recommend, therefore, that the strategy of factoring variables be supplemented with other strategies for modeling dose-response.

Fish Habitat and Fish Populations in a Southern Appalachian Watershed before and after Hurricane Hugo

Treesearch

C. Andrew Dolloff; Patricia A. Flebbe; Michael D. Owen

1994-01-01

Habitat features and relative abundance of all fish species were estimated in 8.4 km of a small mountain stream system before and 11 months after Hurricane Hugo crossed the southern Appalachians in September 1989. There was no change in the total amount (area) of each habitat type but the total number of habitat units decreased and average size and depth of habitat...

Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population

PubMed Central

Bartolino, Valerio; Tian, Huidong; Bergström, Ulf; Jounela, Pekka; Aro, Eero; Dieterich, Christian; Meier, H. E. Markus; Cardinale, Massimiliano; Bland, Barbara

2017-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes. PMID:28207804

Positive density-dependent growth supports costs sharing hypothesis and population density sensing in a manipulative parasite.

PubMed

Gopko, Mikhail; Mikheev, Victor N; Taskinen, Jouni

2017-09-01

Parasites manipulate their hosts' phenotype to increase their own fitness. Like any evolutionary adaptation, parasitic manipulations should be costly. Though it is difficult to measure costs of the manipulation directly, they can be evaluated using an indirect approach. For instance, theory suggests that as the parasite infrapopulation grows, the investment of individual parasites in host manipulation decreases, because of cost sharing. Another assumption is that in environments where manipulation does not pay off for the parasite, it can decrease its investment in the manipulation to save resources. We experimentally infected rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss with the immature larvae of the trematode Diplostomum pseudospathaceum, to test these assumptions. Immature D. pseudospathaceum metacercariae are known for their ability to manipulate the behaviour of their host enhancing its anti-predator defenses to avoid concomitant predation. We found that the growth rate of individual parasites in rainbow trout increased with the infrapopulation size (positive density-dependence) suggesting cost sharing. Moreover, parasites adjusted their growth to the intensity of infection within the eye lens where they were localized suggesting population density sensing. Results of this study support the hypothesis that macroparasites can adjust their growth rate and manipulation investment according to cost sharing level and infrapopulation size.

Factors affecting unintentional harvesting selectivity in a monomorphic species.

PubMed

Bunnefeld, Nils; Baines, David; Newborn, David; Milner-Gulland, E J

2009-03-01

1. Changes in the abundance of populations have always perplexed ecologists but long-term studies are revealing new insights into population dynamic processes. Long-term data are often derived from harvest records although many wild populations face high harvesting pressures leading to overharvesting and extinction. Additionally, harvest records used to describe population processes such as fluctuations in abundance and reproductive success often assume a random off-take. 2. Selective harvesting based on phenotypic characteristics occurs in many species (e.g. trophy hunting, fisheries) and has important implications for population dynamics, conservation and management. 3. In species with no marked morphological differences between the age and sex classes, such as the red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus during the shooting season, hunters cannot consciously select for a specific sex or age class during the shooting process but harvest records could still give a biased reflection of the population structure because of differences in behaviour between age and sex classes. 4. This study compared age and sex ratios in the bag with those in the population before shooting for red grouse at different points in the shooting season and different densities, which has rarely been tested before. 5. More young than old grouse were shot at large bag sizes and vice versa for small bag sizes than would be expected from the population composition before shooting. The susceptibility of old males to shooting compared to females increased with bag size and was high at the first time the area was shot but decreased with the number of times an area was harvested. 6. These findings stress that the assumption made in many studies that harvest records reflect the age and sex ratio of the population and therefore reflect productivity can be misleading. 7. In this paper, as in the literature, it is also shown that number of grouse shot reflects grouse density and therefore that hunting selectivity might influence population dynamics in a cyclic species. 8. The study is not only relevant for red grouse but applies to systems showing interactions between selective harvesting and wider ecological processes, such as age- and sex-related parasitism and territoriality, which may drive population fluctuations.

Species delimitation, genetic diversity and population historical dynamics of Cycas diannanensis (Cycadaceae) occurring sympatrically in the Red River region of China

PubMed Central

Liu, Jian; Zhou, Wei; Gong, Xun

2015-01-01

Delimitating species boundaries could be of critical importance when evaluating the species' evolving process and providing guidelines for conservation genetics. Here, species delimitation was carried out on three endemic and endangered Cycas species with resembling morphology and overlapped distribution range along the Red River (Yuanjiang) in China: Cycas diananensis Z. T. Guan et G. D. Tao, Cycas parvula S. L. Yang and Cycas multiovula D. Y. Wang. A total of 137 individuals from 15 populations were genotyped by using three chloroplastic (psbA-trnH, atpI-atpH, and trnL-rps4) and two single copy nuclear (RPB1 and SmHP) DNA sequences. Basing on the carefully morphological comparison and cladistic haplotype aggregation (CHA) analysis, we propose all the populations as one species, with the rest two incorporated into C. diannanensis. Genetic diversity and structure analysis of the conflated C. diannanensis revealed this species possessed a relative lower genetic diversity than estimates of other Cycas species. The higher genetic diversity among populations and relative lower genetic diversity within populations, as well as obvious genetic differentiation among populations inferred from chloroplastic DNA (cpDNA) suggested a recent genetic loss within this protected species. Additionally, a clear genetic structure of C. diannanensis corresponding with geography was detected based on cpDNA, dividing its population ranges into “Yuanjiang-Nanhun” basin and “Ejia-Jiepai” basin groups. Demographical history analyses based on combined cpDNA and one nuclear DNA (nDNA) SmHP both showed the population size of C. diannanensis began to decrease in Quaternary glaciation with no subsequent expansion, while another nDNA RPB1 revealed a more recent sudden expansion after long-term population size contraction, suggesting its probable bottleneck events in history. Our findings offer grounded views for clarifying species boundaries of C. diannanensis when determining the conservation objectives. For operational guidelines, the downstream populations which occupy high and peculiar haplotypes should be given prior in-situ conservation. In addition, ex-situ conservation and reintroduction measures for decades of generations are supplemented for improving the population size and genetic diversity of the endemic and endangered species. PMID:26442013

Species delimitation, genetic diversity and population historical dynamics of Cycas diannanensis (Cycadaceae) occurring sympatrically in the Red River region of China.

PubMed

Liu, Jian; Zhou, Wei; Gong, Xun

2015-01-01

Delimitating species boundaries could be of critical importance when evaluating the species' evolving process and providing guidelines for conservation genetics. Here, species delimitation was carried out on three endemic and endangered Cycas species with resembling morphology and overlapped distribution range along the Red River (Yuanjiang) in China: Cycas diananensis Z. T. Guan et G. D. Tao, Cycas parvula S. L. Yang and Cycas multiovula D. Y. Wang. A total of 137 individuals from 15 populations were genotyped by using three chloroplastic (psbA-trnH, atpI-atpH, and trnL-rps4) and two single copy nuclear (RPB1 and SmHP) DNA sequences. Basing on the carefully morphological comparison and cladistic haplotype aggregation (CHA) analysis, we propose all the populations as one species, with the rest two incorporated into C. diannanensis. Genetic diversity and structure analysis of the conflated C. diannanensis revealed this species possessed a relative lower genetic diversity than estimates of other Cycas species. The higher genetic diversity among populations and relative lower genetic diversity within populations, as well as obvious genetic differentiation among populations inferred from chloroplastic DNA (cpDNA) suggested a recent genetic loss within this protected species. Additionally, a clear genetic structure of C. diannanensis corresponding with geography was detected based on cpDNA, dividing its population ranges into "Yuanjiang-Nanhun" basin and "Ejia-Jiepai" basin groups. Demographical history analyses based on combined cpDNA and one nuclear DNA (nDNA) SmHP both showed the population size of C. diannanensis began to decrease in Quaternary glaciation with no subsequent expansion, while another nDNA RPB1 revealed a more recent sudden expansion after long-term population size contraction, suggesting its probable bottleneck events in history. Our findings offer grounded views for clarifying species boundaries of C. diannanensis when determining the conservation objectives. For operational guidelines, the downstream populations which occupy high and peculiar haplotypes should be given prior in-situ conservation. In addition, ex-situ conservation and reintroduction measures for decades of generations are supplemented for improving the population size and genetic diversity of the endemic and endangered species.

Anemia and Iron Status Among Different Body Size Phenotypes in Chinese Adult Population: a Nation-Wide, Health and Nutrition Survey.

PubMed

Li, Jiang; Xiao, Cheng; Yang, Hui; Zhou, Yun; Wang, Rui; Cao, Yongtong

2017-12-09

Previous studies have shown that there is a controversial relationship between iron homeostasis and obesity. This study aims to explore the relationship of anemia and iron status with different body size phenotypes in adult Chinese population. Using information on iron status-related parameters and lifestyle data from 8462 participants of the 2009 wave of China Health and Nutrition Survey (2009 CHNS), we performed multivariable logistic regression analyses to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) for the risk of anemia and iron parameters according to different body size phenotypes. Participants with higher body mass index (BMI) had a lower anemia prevalence with significant trends in both metabolic status groups (P < 0.001). Serum ferritin, transferrin, and soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR)/log ferritin index were significant in different metabolic status groups and in different body size phenotypes, respectively. The ORs for higher ferritin and transferrin increased across different body size phenotypes in both genders, and for sTfR/log ferritin index decreased (P < 0.01 for trend). This association was still statistically significant after adjustment for multiple confounders. We found an inverse association of BMI levels with the prevalence of anemia and strong association of serum ferritin and transferrin with higher risk of obesity or overweight in both metabolic status groups.

Effective population size of korean populations.

PubMed

Park, Leeyoung

2014-12-01

Recently, new methods have been developed for estimating the current and recent changes in effective population sizes. Based on the methods, the effective population sizes of Korean populations were estimated using data from the Korean Association Resource (KARE) project. The overall changes in the population sizes of the total populations were similar to CHB (Han Chinese in Beijing, China) and JPT (Japanese in Tokyo, Japan) of the HapMap project. There were no differences in past changes in population sizes with a comparison between an urban area and a rural area. Age-dependent current and recent effective population sizes represent the modern history of Korean populations, including the effects of World War II, the Korean War, and urbanization. The oldest age group showed that the population growth of Koreans had already been substantial at least since the end of the 19th century.

Estimating the size of hidden populations using respondent-driven sampling data: Case examples from Morocco

PubMed Central

Johnston, Lisa G; McLaughlin, Katherine R; Rhilani, Houssine El; Latifi, Amina; Toufik, Abdalla; Bennani, Aziza; Alami, Kamal; Elomari, Boutaina; Handcock, Mark S

2015-01-01

Background Respondent-driven sampling is used worldwide to estimate the population prevalence of characteristics such as HIV/AIDS and associated risk factors in hard-to-reach populations. Estimating the total size of these populations is of great interest to national and international organizations, however reliable measures of population size often do not exist. Methods Successive Sampling-Population Size Estimation (SS-PSE) along with network size imputation allows population size estimates to be made without relying on separate studies or additional data (as in network scale-up, multiplier and capture-recapture methods), which may be biased. Results Ten population size estimates were calculated for people who inject drugs, female sex workers, men who have sex with other men, and migrants from sub-Sahara Africa in six different cities in Morocco. SS-PSE estimates fell within or very close to the likely values provided by experts and the estimates from previous studies using other methods. Conclusions SS-PSE is an effective method for estimating the size of hard-to-reach populations that leverages important information within respondent-driven sampling studies. The addition of a network size imputation method helps to smooth network sizes allowing for more accurate results. However, caution should be used particularly when there is reason to believe that clustered subgroups may exist within the population of interest or when the sample size is small in relation to the population. PMID:26258908

The evolution of test size in the Planktic Foraminifera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraass, A.; Huber, B. T.; Kelly, D. C.

2017-12-01

Planktic foraminifera are vital tools for understanding paleoceanography, paleoclimate, and evolution. A dataset of measurements from all planktic foraminiferal species is used here to investigate how their size changes through the late Jurassic to Recent. The mean test size of planktic foraminifera increases in the Cretaceous and the Cenozoic, with substantial drops at the Aptian/Albian boundary, in the Coniacian and Santonian, with the end-Cretaceous extinction, and across the Paleocene/Eocene boundary. The Oligocene contains only a small drop in mean size, which is surprising given the substantial extinction of planktic foraminifera at that boundary. There is a qualitative connection between mean and median size and paleoceanographic events, but several key issues remain before rigorous quantitative interrogation of the dataset can be undertaken. In general, species that originate early in a family's range are smaller than those evolving later, though this is a weak relationship. Individual families do not always conform to that finding, however, and have both increasing and decreasing family age-size relationships. The 'three faunas' concept for foraminiferal evolution fails with respect to mean and median size; each diversification has a unique rate of increase and character. Lastly, through comparison with the Schmidt et al. (2004) population-level test size dataset, the size response to climate in the low-latitudes is at the species-level. In the high-latitude regions, however, the response to climate is at the population level. Thus, methods for uncovering climate responses in planktic foraminifera must be specific to the region. Taxonomic or macroevolutionary responses dominate the tropics and global signals, while the polar regions appear to have a unique, and more microevolutionary response.Schmidt, D., Thierstein, H., Bollmann, J., & Schiebel, R. (2004). Abiotic Forcing of Plankton Evolution in the Cenozoic. Science, 303(5655), 207-210.

Size-frequency distribution, growth, and mortality of snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) and arctic lyre crab (Hyas coarctatus) in the chukchi sea from 2009 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groß, Jasmin; Konar, Brenda; Brey, Thomas; Grebmeier, Jacqueline M.

2017-10-01

The snow crab Chionoecetes opilio and Arctic lyre crab Hyas coarctatus are prominent members of the Chukchi Sea epifaunal community. A better understanding of their life history will aid in determining their role in this ecosystem in light of the changing climate and resource development. In this study, the size frequency distribution, growth, and mortality of these two crab species was examined in 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2013 to determine temporal and spatial patterns within the eastern Chukchi Sea, and to identify potential environmental drivers of the observed patterns. Temporally, the mean size of both sexes of C. opilio and H. coarctatus decreased significantly from 2009 to 2013, with the number of rare maximum sized organisms decreasing significantly to near absence in the latter two study years. Spatially, the mean size of male and female crabs of both species showed a latitudinal trend, decreasing from south to north in the investigation area. Growth of both sexes of C. opilio and H. coarctatus was linear over the sampled size range, and mortality was highest in the latter two study years. Life history features of both species related to different environmental parameters in different years, ranging from temperature, the sediment carbon to nitrogen ratio of the organic content, and sediment grain size distribution. Likely explanations for the observed temporal and spatial variability are ontogenetic migrations of mature crabs to warmer areas possibly due to cooler water temperatures in the latter two study years, or interannual fluctuations, which have been reported for C. opilio populations in other areas where successful waves of recruitment were estimated to occur in eight year intervals. Further research is suggested to determine if the spatial and temporal patterns found in this study are part of the natural variability in this system or if they are an indication of long-term trends.

Inter-annual variability in spring abundance of adult Calanus finmarchicus from the overwintering population in the southeastern Norwegian Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dupont, Nicolas; Bagøien, Espen; Melle, Webjørn

2017-03-01

Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant copepod species in the Norwegian Sea, where it plays a key role in the ecosystem by transferring energy from primary producers to higher trophic levels. This paper analyses a 17-year time series, 1996-2012, on C. finmarchicus collected within the Atlantic Water mass along the Svinøy transect in the southeastern Norwegian Sea. We use the spring abundance of adult as a proxy for the size of C. finmarchicus' overwintered population. The inter-annual trend in spring abundance of adult C. finmarchicus in the 200-0 m depth-stratum is assessed while accounting for spring population development to the adult stage represented by day of year for sampling, inter-annual changes in timing of population development, and spatial differences. For the most oceanic stations, a significant inter-annual trend in spring abundance of adult C. finmarchicus was revealed using generalized additive models (GAM). This trend primarily consists in an increase prior to year 2000 and a decrease between years 2000 and ca. 2011. For the stations closer to the coast, the identified inter-annual trend is a decrease during a longer period from the late 90s until ca. 2011. From 2000 to 2011, our estimates suggest a 50% decrease for the most oceanic stations, and as much as an 81% decrease for the stations closer to the coast. In addition the results suggest a consistent change in phenology over the years and the stations. The predicted spring peak of overwintered adult population abundance is suggested to become shorter by 3 days, and the predicted maximum of abundance to take place 4 days earlier over the 17 years of the time-series. The results highlight significant changes in intensity and timing of the overwintered population of a key zooplankton species in the Norwegian Sea that may have important implications on the scale of an entire ecosystem.

The progenitors of the first red sequence galaxies at z ~ 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barro, G.; Faber, S.; Perez-Gonzalez, P.; Koo, D.; Williams, C.; Kocevski, D.; Trump, J.; Mozena, M.

2013-07-01

Nearby galaxies come in two flavors: red quiescent galaxies (QGs) with old stellar populations, and blue young star-forming galaxies (SFGs). This color bimodality seems to be already in place at z = 2 - 3, presenting also strong correlations with size and morphology. Surprisingly, massive QGs at higher redshifts are ~5 times smaller than local, equal mass analogs. In contrast, most of the massive SFGs at these redshifts are still relatively large disks. The strong bimodality in both SFR and sizes indicates that some SFGs must experience strong structural transformations accompanied by a rapid truncation of the star-formation to match the observed properties of QGs. Using high-resolution HST/WFC3 F160W imaging from the CANDELS survey in GOODS-S and UDS, along with multi-wavelength ancillary data, we analyze stellar masses, SFRs and sizes of a sample of massive (M* > 1010 M ⊙) galaxies at z = 1.4 - 3.0 to identify a population of compact SFGs with similar structural properties as compact QGs at z~2. We also find that the number density of QGs increases rapidly since z = 3. Among these, the number of compact QGs builds up first, and only at z < 1.8 we do start finding a sizable number of extended QGs. This suggests that the bulk of these galaxies are assembled at late times by both continuous migration (quenching) of non-compact SFGs and size growth of cQGs. As a result of this growth, the population of cQGs disappears by z~1. Simultaneously, we identify a population of compact SFGs (cSFGs) whose number density decreases steadily with time since z = 3.0, being almost completely absent at z < 1.4. The number of cSFGs makes up less than 20% of all massive SFGs, but they present similar number densities as cQGs down to z~2, suggesting an evolutionary link between the two populations.

Reconstructing shifts in vital rates driven by long-term environmental change: a new demographic method based on readily available data.

PubMed

González, Edgar J; Martorell, Carlos

2013-07-01

Frequently, vital rates are driven by directional, long-term environmental changes. Many of these are of great importance, such as land degradation, climate change, and succession. Traditional demographic methods assume a constant or stationary environment, and thus are inappropriate to analyze populations subject to these changes. They also require repeat surveys of the individuals as change unfolds. Methods for reconstructing such lengthy processes are needed. We present a model that, based on a time series of population size structures and densities, reconstructs the impact of directional environmental changes on vital rates. The model uses integral projection models and maximum likelihood to identify the rates that best reconstructs the time series. The procedure was validated with artificial and real data. The former involved simulated species with widely different demographic behaviors. The latter used a chronosequence of populations of an endangered cactus subject to increasing anthropogenic disturbance. In our simulations, the vital rates and their change were always reconstructed accurately. Nevertheless, the model frequently produced alternative results. The use of coarse knowledge of the species' biology (whether vital rates increase or decrease with size or their plausible values) allowed the correct rates to be identified with a 90% success rate. With real data, the model correctly reconstructed the effects of disturbance on vital rates. These effects were previously known from two populations for which demographic data were available. Our procedure seems robust, as the data violated several of the model's assumptions. Thus, time series of size structures and densities contain the necessary information to reconstruct changing vital rates. However, additional biological knowledge may be required to provide reliable results. Because time series of size structures and densities are available for many species or can be rapidly generated, our model can contribute to understand populations that face highly pressing environmental problems.

Role of evolutionary and ecological factors in the reproductive success and the spatial genetic structure of the temperate gorgonian Paramuricea clavata

PubMed Central

Mokhtar-Jamaï, Kenza; Coma, Rafel; Wang, Jinliang; Zuberer, Frederic; Féral, Jean-Pierre; Aurelle, Didier

2013-01-01

Dispersal and mating features strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics and the spatial genetic structure (SGS) of marine populations. For the first time in a marine invertebrate, we examined individual reproductive success, by conducting larval paternity assignments after a natural spawning event, combined with a small-scale SGS analysis within a population of the gorgonian Paramuricea clavata. Thirty four percent of the larvae were sired by male colonies surrounding the brooding female colonies, revealing that the bulk of the mating was accomplished by males from outside the studied area. Male success increased with male height and decreased with increasing male to female distance. The parentage analyses, with a strong level of self-recruitment (25%), unveiled the occurrence of a complex family structure at a small spatial scale, consistent with the limited larval dispersal of this species. However, no evidence of small scale SGS was revealed despite this family structure. Furthermore, temporal genetic structure was not observed, which appears to be related to the rather large effective population size. The low level of inbreeding found suggests a pattern of random mating in this species, which disagrees with expectations that limited larval dispersal should lead to biparental inbreeding. Surface brooding and investment in sexual reproduction in P. clavata contribute to multiple paternity (on average 6.4 fathers were assigned per brood), which enhance genetic diversity of the brood. Several factors may have contributed to the lack of biparental inbreeding in our study such as (i) the lack of sperm limitation at a small scale, (ii) multiple paternity, and (iii) the large effective population size. Thus, our results indicate that limited larval dispersal and complex family structure do not necessarily lead to biparental inbreeding and SGS. In the framework of conservation purposes, our results suggested that colony size, proximity among colonies and the population size should be taken into consideration for restoration projects. PMID:23789084

The interaction of neutral evolutionary processes with climatically-driven adaptive changes in the 3D shape of the human os coxae.

PubMed

Betti, Lia; von Cramon-Taubadel, Noreen; Manica, Andrea; Lycett, Stephen J

2014-08-01

Differences in the breadth of the pelvis among modern human populations and among extinct hominin species have often been interpreted in the light of thermoregulatory adaptation, whereby a larger pelvic girdle would help preserve body temperature in cold environments while a narrower pelvis would help dissipate heat in tropical climates. There is, however, a theoretical problem in interpreting a pattern of variation as evidence of selection without first accounting for the effects of neutral evolutionary processes (i.e., mutation, genetic drift and migration). Here, we analyse 3D configurations of 27 landmarks on the os coxae of 1494 modern human individuals representing 30 male and 23 female populations from five continents and a range of climatic conditions. We test for the effects of climate on the size and shape of the pelvic bone, while explicitly accounting for population history (i.e., geographically-mediated gene flow and genetic drift). We find that neutral processes account for a substantial proportion of shape variance in the human os coxae in both sexes. Beyond the neutral pattern due to population history, temperature is a significant predictor of shape and size variation in the os coxae, at least in males. The effect of climate on the shape of the pelvic bone, however, is comparatively limited, explaining only a small percentage of shape variation in males and females. In accordance with previous hypotheses, the size of the os coxae tends to increase with decreasing temperature, although the significance of the association is reduced when population history is taken into account. In conclusion, the shape and size of the human os coxae reflect both neutral evolutionary processes and climatically-driven adaptive changes. Neutral processes have a substantial effect on pelvic variation, suggesting such factors will need to be taken into account in future studies of human and fossil hominin coxal variation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reconstructing shifts in vital rates driven by long-term environmental change: a new demographic method based on readily available data

PubMed Central

González, Edgar J; Martorell, Carlos

2013-01-01

Frequently, vital rates are driven by directional, long-term environmental changes. Many of these are of great importance, such as land degradation, climate change, and succession. Traditional demographic methods assume a constant or stationary environment, and thus are inappropriate to analyze populations subject to these changes. They also require repeat surveys of the individuals as change unfolds. Methods for reconstructing such lengthy processes are needed. We present a model that, based on a time series of population size structures and densities, reconstructs the impact of directional environmental changes on vital rates. The model uses integral projection models and maximum likelihood to identify the rates that best reconstructs the time series. The procedure was validated with artificial and real data. The former involved simulated species with widely different demographic behaviors. The latter used a chronosequence of populations of an endangered cactus subject to increasing anthropogenic disturbance. In our simulations, the vital rates and their change were always reconstructed accurately. Nevertheless, the model frequently produced alternative results. The use of coarse knowledge of the species' biology (whether vital rates increase or decrease with size or their plausible values) allowed the correct rates to be identified with a 90% success rate. With real data, the model correctly reconstructed the effects of disturbance on vital rates. These effects were previously known from two populations for which demographic data were available. Our procedure seems robust, as the data violated several of the model's assumptions. Thus, time series of size structures and densities contain the necessary information to reconstruct changing vital rates. However, additional biological knowledge may be required to provide reliable results. Because time series of size structures and densities are available for many species or can be rapidly generated, our model can contribute to understand populations that face highly pressing environmental problems. PMID:23919169

Characterisation of a garnet population from the Sikkim Himalaya: implications for the mechanisms and rates of porphyroblast crystallisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

George, Freya; Gaidies, Fred

2016-04-01

Analysis of porphyroblast distribution in metamorphic rocks yields insight into the processes controlling metamorphic reaction rates. By coupling this textural record with microprobe analysis and phase-equilibria and diffusion modelling, a detailed view of the nucleation and growth history of metamorphic minerals can be obtained. In this study, we comprehensively characterise the 3D distribution and compositional variation of a garnet population in a garnet-grade pelitic schist of the Lesser Himalayan Sequence (Sikkim), in order to investigate both the rates and kinetic controls of porphyroblastic crystallisation. Quantification of the size, shape and spatial distribution of garnet using high-resolution μ-computed X-ray tomography and statistical analysis reveals a log-normal crystal size distribution, systematic variation of aspect ratio with crystal size, and a significantly clustered garnet texture in the study sample. The latter is indicative of interface-controlled nucleation and growth, with nucleation sites controlled principally by a heterogeneous precursor assemblage. At length-scales less than 0.7 mm, there is evidence for adjacent grains that are on average smaller than the mean size of the population; this minor ordering is attributed to secondary redistribution of porphyroblast centers and reduction of crystal sizes due to syn-kinematic growth and resorption, respectively. Geochemical traverses through centrally sectioned garnet crystals of variable size highlight several features: (1) core compositions of even the smallest crystals preserve primary prograde growth zonation, with little evidence for diffusional modification in any crystal size; (2) rim compositions are within error between grains, suggestive of sample-scale equilibration of the growth medium at the time of cessation of crystallisation; (3) different grains of equal radii display equivalent compositional zoning; and (4) gradients of compositional profiles display a steepening trend in progressively smaller grain sizes, converse to anticipated trends based on classic kinetic crystallisation theory. The observed systematic behaviour is interpreted to reflect interface-controlled rates of crystallisation, with a decrease in the rate of crystal growth of newly nucleated grains as the crystallisation interval proceeds. Numerical simulations of garnet growth successfully reproduce observed core and rim compositions, and simulations of intracrystalline diffusion yield rapid heating/cooling rates along the P-T path, in excess of 100 °C/Ma. Radial garnet crystallisation is correspondingly rapid, with minimum growth rates of 1.5 mm/Ma in the smallest crystals. Simulations suggest progressive nucleation of new generations of garnet occurred with an exponentially decreasing frequency along the prograde path; however, measured gradients indicate that core compositions developed more slowly than predicted by the model, potentially resulting in a more evenly distributed pattern of nucleation.

Coevolution of adaptive technology, maladaptive culture and population size in a producer–scrounger game

PubMed Central

Lehmann, Laurent; Feldman, Marcus W.

2009-01-01

Technology (i.e. tools, methods of cultivation and domestication, systems of construction and appropriation, machines) has increased the vital rates of humans, and is one of the defining features of the transition from Malthusian ecological stagnation to a potentially perpetual rising population growth. Maladaptations, on the other hand, encompass behaviours, customs and practices that decrease the vital rates of individuals. Technology and maladaptations are part of the total stock of culture carried by the individuals in a population. Here, we develop a quantitative model for the coevolution of cumulative adaptive technology and maladaptive culture in a ‘producer–scrounger’ game, which can also usefully be interpreted as an ‘individual–social’ learner interaction. Producers (individual learners) are assumed to invent new adaptations and maladaptations by trial-and-error learning, insight or deduction, and they pay the cost of innovation. Scroungers (social learners) are assumed to copy or imitate (cultural transmission) both the adaptations and maladaptations generated by producers. We show that the coevolutionary dynamics of producers and scroungers in the presence of cultural transmission can have a variety of effects on population carrying capacity. From stable polymorphism, where scroungers bring an advantage to the population (increase in carrying capacity), to periodic cycling, where scroungers decrease carrying capacity, we find that selection-driven cultural innovation and transmission may send a population on the path of indefinite growth or to extinction. PMID:19692409

Determining size and dispersion of minimum viable populations for land management planning and species conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehmkuhl, John F.

1984-03-01

The concept of minimum populations of wildlife and plants has only recently been discussed in the literature. Population genetics has emerged as a basic underlying criterion for determining minimum population size. This paper presents a genetic framework and procedure for determining minimum viable population size and dispersion strategies in the context of multiple-use land management planning. A procedure is presented for determining minimum population size based on maintenance of genetic heterozygosity and reduction of inbreeding. A minimum effective population size ( N e ) of 50 breeding animals is taken from the literature as the minimum shortterm size to keep inbreeding below 1% per generation. Steps in the procedure adjust N e to account for variance in progeny number, unequal sex ratios, overlapping generations, population fluctuations, and period of habitat/population constraint. The result is an approximate census number that falls within a range of effective population size of 50 500 individuals. This population range defines the time range of short- to long-term population fitness and evolutionary potential. The length of the term is a relative function of the species generation time. Two population dispersion strategies are proposed: core population and dispersed population.

Modulation of population density and size of silver nanoparticles embedded in bacterial cellulose via ammonia exposure: visual detection of volatile compounds in a piece of plasmonic nanopaper

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heli, B.; Morales-Narváez, E.; Golmohammadi, H.; Ajji, A.; Merkoçi, A.

2016-04-01

The localized surface plasmon resonance exhibited by noble metal nanoparticles can be sensitively tuned by varying their size and interparticle distances. We report that corrosive vapour (ammonia) exposure dramatically reduces the population density of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) embedded within bacterial cellulose, leading to a larger distance between the remaining nanoparticles and a decrease in the UV-Vis absorbance associated with the AgNP plasmonic properties. We also found that the size distribution of AgNPs embedded in bacterial cellulose undergoes a reduction in the presence of volatile compounds released during food spoilage, modulating the studied nanoplasmonic properties. In fact, such a plasmonic nanopaper exhibits a change in colour from amber to light amber upon the explored corrosive vapour exposure and from amber to a grey or taupe colour upon fish or meat spoilage exposure. These phenomena are proposed as a simple visual detection of volatile compounds in a flexible, transparent, permeable and stable single-use nanoplasmonic membrane, which opens the way to innovative approaches and capabilities in gas sensing and smart packaging.The localized surface plasmon resonance exhibited by noble metal nanoparticles can be sensitively tuned by varying their size and interparticle distances. We report that corrosive vapour (ammonia) exposure dramatically reduces the population density of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) embedded within bacterial cellulose, leading to a larger distance between the remaining nanoparticles and a decrease in the UV-Vis absorbance associated with the AgNP plasmonic properties. We also found that the size distribution of AgNPs embedded in bacterial cellulose undergoes a reduction in the presence of volatile compounds released during food spoilage, modulating the studied nanoplasmonic properties. In fact, such a plasmonic nanopaper exhibits a change in colour from amber to light amber upon the explored corrosive vapour exposure and from amber to a grey or taupe colour upon fish or meat spoilage exposure. These phenomena are proposed as a simple visual detection of volatile compounds in a flexible, transparent, permeable and stable single-use nanoplasmonic membrane, which opens the way to innovative approaches and capabilities in gas sensing and smart packaging. Electronic supplementary information (ESI) available: Details on the estimations of evaporation rates and limits of detection, ESI figures and author contributions. See DOI: 10.1039/c6nr00537c

Contamination in marine turtle (Dermochelys coriaca) egg shells of Playon de Mexiquillo, Michoacan, Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vazquez, G.F.; Reyes, M.C.; Fenandez, G.

Concern for the decreasing population sizes of marine turtles around the world is growing. Potential contamination within habitats of marine turtles, and human activities, such as poaching, modification of nesting sites, and capture of adult turtles, may be responsible for their decreasing populations. Little is known about the baseline levels and physiological effects of environmental contaminants on marine turtle populations. Responding to this concern, the Mexican government has designated areas along the Mexican coastline to preserve marine turtle nesting habitats. {open_quotes}Playon de Mexiquillo{close_quotes}, Michocan, Mexico is one of the coastal preservation areas located near the mouth of Rio la Manzanillamore » which flows between Sierra Madre del Sur and the Pacific Ocean. Samples of seawater, sand, and marine turtle egg (Dermochelys Coriaca) shells were collected monthly from October, 1992-March, 1993. Contaminants investigated were oil and grease, and metals (cadmium, copper, zinc, nickel, and lead). Seawater samples were collected where the turtles lay eggs in the preservation area and sand samples were taken from the area surrounding the eggs. 12 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs.« less

Calcification response of a key phytoplankton family to millennial-scale environmental change.

PubMed

McClelland, H L O; Barbarin, N; Beaufort, L; Hermoso, M; Ferretti, P; Greaves, M; Rickaby, R E M

2016-09-28

Coccolithophores are single-celled photosynthesizing marine algae, responsible for half of the calcification in the surface ocean, and exert a strong influence on the distribution of carbon among global reservoirs, and thus Earth's climate. Calcification in the surface ocean decreases the buffering capacity of seawater for CO 2 , whilst photosynthetic carbon fixation has the opposite effect. Experiments in culture have suggested that coccolithophore calcification decreases under high CO 2 concentrations ([CO 2 (aq)]) constituting a negative feedback. However, the extent to which these results are representative of natural populations, and of the response over more than a few hundred generations is unclear. Here we describe and apply a novel rationale for size-normalizing the mass of the calcite plates produced by the most abundant family of coccolithophores, the Noëlaerhabdaceae. On average, ancient populations subjected to coupled gradual increases in [CO 2 (aq)] and temperature over a few million generations in a natural environment become relatively more highly calcified, implying a positive climatic feedback. We hypothesize that this is the result of selection manifest in natural populations over millennial timescales, so has necessarily eluded laboratory experiments.

Surface Charge-Transfer Doping of Graphene Nanoflakes Containing Double-Vacancy (5-8-5) and Stone-Wales (55-77) Defects through Molecular Adsorption.

PubMed

Shakourian-Fard, Mehdi; Jamshidi, Zahra; Kamath, Ganesh

2016-10-18

The adsorption of six electron donor-acceptor (D/A) organic molecules on various sizes of graphene nanoflakes (GNFs) containing two common defects, double-vacancy (5-8-5) and Stone-Wales (55-77), are investigated by means of ab initio DFT [M06-2X(-D3)/cc-pVDZ]. Different D/A molecules adsorb on a defect graphene (DG) surface with binding energies (ΔE b ) of about -12 to -28 kcal mol -1 . The ΔE b values for adsorption of molecules on the Stone-Wales GNF surface are higher than those on the double vacancy GNF surface. Moreover, binding energies increase by about 10 % with an increase in surface size. The nature of cooperative weak interactions is analyzed based on quantum theory of atoms in molecules, noncovalent interactions plot, and natural bond order analyses, and the dominant interaction is compared for different molecules. Electron density population analysis is used to explain the n- and p-type character of defect graphene nanoflakes (DGNFs) and also the change in electronic properties and reactivity parameters of DGNFs upon adsorption of different molecules and with increasing DGNF size. Results indicate that the HOMO-LUMO energy gap (E g ) of DGNFs decreases upon adsorption of molecules. However, by increasing the size of DGNFs, the E g and chemical hardness of all complexes decrease and the electrophilicity index increases. Furthermore, the values of the chemical potential of acceptor-DGNF complexes decrease with increasing size, whereas those of donor-DGNF complexes increase. © 2016 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

[Changes in fish communities of coral reefs at Sabana-Camagüey Archipelago, Cuba].

PubMed

Claro, Rodolfo; Cantelar, Karel; Amargós, Fabián Pina; García-Arteaga, Juan P

2007-06-01

A comparison of fish community structure in the Sabana-Camagüey Archipelago (1988-1989 and 2000) using visual census surveys (eight belt transects 2x50 m in each site) suggests a notable decrease on species richness, and a two thirds reduction in fish density and biomass on coral reefs. This decrease in fish populations may be related to the alarming decrease of scleractinian coral cover, and an enormous proliferation of algae, which currently covers 70-80% of the hard substrate, impeding the recovery of corals and other benthic organisms. High coral mortalities occurred between the study periods, which correlate with the high temperatures caused by the ENSO events of 1995, 1997 and 1998. These events caused massive bleaching of corals and subsequent algae overgrowth. Evidence of nutrient enrichment from the inner lagoons and overfishing are also present. Collectively, these effects have provoked a marked degradation of reef habitats. These changes appear to have affected the availability of refuges and food for fishes, and may be constraining individual growth potential and population size.

Shanghai: a study on the spatial growth of population and economy in a Chinese metropolitan area.

PubMed

Zhu, J

1995-01-01

In this study of the growth in population and industry in Shanghai, China, between the 1982 and 1990 censuses, data on administrative divisions was normalized through digitization and spatial analysis. Analysis focused on spatial units, intensity of growth, time period, distance, rate of growth, and direction of spatial growth. The trisection method divided the city into city proper, outskirts, and suburbs. The distance function method considered the distance from center city as a function: exponential, power, trigonometric, logarithmic, and polynomial. Population growth and employment in all sectors increased in the outskirts and suburbs and decreased in the city proper except tertiary sectors. Primary sector employment decreased in all three sections. Employment in the secondary increased faster in the outskirts and suburbs than the total rate of growth of population and employment. In the city secondary sector employment rates decreased faster than total population and employment rates. The tertiary sector had the highest rate of growth in all sections, and employment grew faster than secondary sector rates. Tertiary growth was highest in real estate, finance, and insurance. Industrial growth in the secondary sector was 160.2% in the suburbs, 156.6% in the outskirts, and 80.9% in the city. In the distance function analysis, industry expanded further out than the entire secondary sector. Commerce grew the fastest in areas 15.4 km from center city. Economic growth was faster after economic reforms in 1978. Growth was led by industry and followed by the secondary sector, the tertiary sector, and population. Industrial expansion resulted from inner pressure, political factors controlling size, the social and economic system, and the housing construction and distribution system. Initially sociopsychological factors affected urban concentration.

3D-HST + CANDELS: the Evolution of the Galaxy Size-mass Distribution Since Z=3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

VanDerWel, A.; Franx, M.; vanDokkum, P. G.; Skelton, R. E.; Momcheva, I. G.; Whitaker, K. E.; Brammer, G. B.; Bell, E. F.; Rix, H.-W.; Wuyts, S.;

Reduced fecundity in small populations of the rare plant Gentianopsis ciliate (Gentianaceae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kery, M.; Matthies, D.

2004-01-01

Habitat destruction is the main cause for the biodiversity crisis. Surviving populations are often fragmented, i.e., small and isolated from each other. Reproduction of plants in small populations is often reduced, and this has been attributed to inbreeding depression, reduced attractiveness for pollinators, and reduced habitat quality in small populations. Here we present data on the effects of fragmentation on the rare, self-compatible perennial herb Gentianopsis ciliata (Gentianaceae), a species with very small and presumably well-dispersed seeds. We studied the relationship between population size, plant size, and the number of flowers produced in 63 populations from 1996-1998. In one of the years, leaf and flower size and the number of seeds produced per fruit was studied in a subset of 25 populations. Plant size, flower size, and the number of seeds per fruit and per plant increased with population size, whereas leaf length and the number of flowers per plant did not. The effects of population size on reproduction and on flower size remained significant if the effects were adjusted for differences in plant size, indicating that they could not be explained by differences in habitat quality. The strongly reduced reproduction in small populations may be due to pollination limitation, while the reduced flower size could indicate genetic effects.

Reduced fecundity in small populations of the rare plant Gentianopsis ciliate (Gentianaceae)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, C.S.

1983-01-01

Habitat destruction is the main cause for the biodiversity crisis. Surviving populations are often fragmented, i.e., small and isolated from each other. Reproduction of plants in small populations is often reduced, and this has been attributed to inbreeding depression, reduced attractiveness for pollinators, and reduced habitat quality in small populations. Here we present data on the effects of fragmentation on the rare, self-compatible perennial herb Gentianopsis ciliata (Gentianaceae), a species with very small and presumably well-dispersed seeds. We studied the relationship between population size, plant size, and the number of flowers produced in 63 populations from 1996-1998. In one of the years, leaf and flower size and the number of seeds produced per fruit was studied in a subset of 25 populations. Plant size, flower size, and the number of seeds per fruit and per plant increased with population size, whereas leaf length and the number of flowers per plant did not. The effects of population size on reproduction and on flower size remained significant if the effects were adjusted for differences in plant size, indicating that they could not be explained by differences in habitat quality. The strongly reduced reproduction in small populations may be due to pollination limitation, while the reduced flower size could indicate genetic effects.

Small body size in an insect shifts development, prior to adult eclosion, towards early reproduction

PubMed Central

Thorne, Ashley D; Pexton, John J; Dytham, Calvin; Mayhew, Peter J

2006-01-01

Life-history theory has suggested that individual body size can strongly affect the allocation of resources to reproduction and away from other traits such as survival. In many insects, adults eclose with a proportion of their potential lifetime egg production that is already mature (the ovigeny index). We establish for the solitary parasitoid wasp Aphaereta genevensis that the ovigeny index decreases with adult body size, despite both initial egg load and potential lifetime fecundity increasing with body size. This outcome is predicted by adaptive models and is the first unequivocal intraspecific demonstration. Evidence suggests that a high ovigeny index carries a cost of reduced longevity in insects. Our results therefore contribute to the emerging evidence that small body size can favour a developmental shift in juveniles that favours early reproduction, but which has adverse late-life consequences. These findings are likely to have important implications for developmental biologists and population biologists. PMID:16600887

LANDSAT (MSS): Image demographic estimations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dejesusparada, N. (Principal Investigator); Foresti, C.

1977-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Two sets of urban test sites, one with 35 cities and one with 70 cities, were selected in the State, Sao Paulo. A high degree of colinearity (0.96) was found between urban and areal measurements taken from aerial photographs and LANDSAT MSS imagery. High coefficients were observed when census data were regressed against aerial information (0.95) and LANDSAT data (0.92). The validity of population estimations was tested by regressing three urban variables, against three classes of cities. Results supported the effectiveness of LANDSAT to estimate large city populations with diminishing effectiveness as urban areas decrease in size.

Does source population size affect performance in new environments?

PubMed Central

Yates, Matthew C; Fraser, Dylan J

2014-01-01

Small populations are predicted to perform poorly relative to large populations when experiencing environmental change. To explore this prediction in nature, data from reciprocal transplant, common garden, and translocation studies were compared meta-analytically. We contrasted changes in performance resulting from transplantation to new environments among individuals originating from different sized source populations from plants and salmonids. We then evaluated the effect of source population size on performance in natural common garden environments and the relationship between population size and habitat quality. In ‘home-away’ contrasts, large populations exhibited reduced performance in new environments. In common gardens, the effect of source population size on performance was inconsistent across life-history stages (LHS) and environments. When transplanted to the same set of new environments, small populations either performed equally well or better than large populations, depending on life stage. Conversely, large populations outperformed small populations within native environments, but only at later life stages. Population size was not associated with habitat quality. Several factors might explain the negative association between source population size and performance in new environments: (i) stronger local adaptation in large populations and antagonistic pleiotropy, (ii) the maintenance of genetic variation in small populations, and (iii) potential environmental differences between large and small populations. PMID:25469166

Achieving temperature-size changes in a unicellular organism

PubMed Central

Forster, Jack; Hirst, Andrew G; Esteban, Genoveva F

2013-01-01

The temperature-size rule (TSR) is an intraspecific phenomenon describing the phenotypic plastic response of an organism size to the temperature: individuals reared at cooler temperatures mature to be larger adults than those reared at warmer temperatures. The TSR is ubiquitous, affecting >80% species including uni- and multicellular groups. How the TSR is established has received attention in multicellular organisms, but not in unicells. Further, conceptual models suggest the mechanism of size change to be different in these two groups. Here, we test these theories using the protist Cyclidium glaucoma. We measure cell sizes, along with population growth during temperature acclimation, to determine how and when the temperature-size changes are achieved. We show that mother and daughter sizes become temporarily decoupled from the ratio 2:1 during acclimation, but these return to their coupled state (where daughter cells are half the size of the mother cell) once acclimated. Thermal acclimation is rapid, being completed within approximately a single generation. Further, we examine the impact of increased temperatures on carrying capacity and total biomass, to investigate potential adaptive strategies of size change. We demonstrate no temperature effect on carrying capacity, but maximum supported biomass to decrease with increasing temperature. PMID:22832346

Latitudinal variation of life-history traits of an exotic and a native impatiens species in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Acharya, Kamal Prasad; De Frenne, Pieter; Brunet, Jörg; Chabrerie, Olivier; Cousins, Sara A. O.; Diekmann, Martin; Hermy, Martin; Kolb, Annette; Lemke, Isgard; Plue, Jan; Verheyen, Kris; Graae, Bente Jessen

2017-05-01

Understanding the responses of invasive and native populations to environmental change is crucial for reliable predictions of invasions in the face of global change. While comparisons of responses across invasive species with different life histories have been performed before, comparing functional traits of congeneric native and invasive species may help to reveal driving factors associated with invasion. Here we compared morphological functional trait patterns of an invasive species (Impatiens parviflora) with its congeneric native species (I. noli-tangere) along an approximately 1600 km European latitudinal gradient from France (49°34‧N) to Norway (63°40‧N). Soil nitrogen was recorded during six weeks of the growing season, and light, soil moisture, and nutrient availability were estimated for each sampled population using community weighted means of indicator values for co-occurring species. Temperature data were gathered from nearby weather stations. Both the native and invasive species are taller at higher latitudes and this response is strongest in the invasive species. Seed mass and number of seeds per capsule increase in I. noli-tangere but decrease in I. parviflora towards higher latitudes. Surprisingly, plant height in the invasive I. parviflora decreases with increasing soil nitrogen availability. The latitudinal pattern in seed mass is positively related to temperature in I. noli-tangere and negatively in I. parviflora. Leaf area of both species decreases with increasing Ellenberg indicator values for nitrogen and light but increases with increasing soil moisture. Soil nitrogen concentrations and Ellenberg indicator values for nitrogen have significant positive (I. noli-tangere) and negative (I. parviflora) effects on the number of seeds per capsule. Our results show that the native I. noli-tangere has efficient reproduction at its range edge while the invasive I. parviflora shows a marked decrease in seed size and seed number per capsule. These patterns are unrelated to the growth and obtained size of the plants: even low soil nitrogen availability in the north seemed not to limit plant growth and size. Our results suggest that the invasive I. parviflora tends to become more invasive at lower latitudes by producing heavier seeds and more seeds per capsule.

When is bigger better? The effects of group size on the evolution of helping behaviours.

PubMed

Powers, Simon T; Lehmann, Laurent

2017-05-01

Understanding the evolution of sociality in humans and other species requires understanding how selection on social behaviour varies with group size. However, the effects of group size are frequently obscured in the theoretical literature, which often makes assumptions that are at odds with empirical findings. In particular, mechanisms are suggested as supporting large-scale cooperation when they would in fact rapidly become ineffective with increasing group size. Here we review the literature on the evolution of helping behaviours (cooperation and altruism), and frame it using a simple synthetic model that allows us to delineate how the three main components of the selection pressure on helping must vary with increasing group size. The first component is the marginal benefit of helping to group members, which determines both direct fitness benefits to the actor and indirect fitness benefits to recipients. While this is often assumed to be independent of group size, marginal benefits are in practice likely to be maximal at intermediate group sizes for many types of collective action problems, and will eventually become very small in large groups due to the law of decreasing marginal returns. The second component is the response of social partners on the past play of an actor, which underlies conditional behaviour under repeated social interactions. We argue that under realistic conditions on the transmission of information in a population, this response on past play decreases rapidly with increasing group size so that reciprocity alone (whether direct, indirect, or generalised) cannot sustain cooperation in very large groups. The final component is the relatedness between actor and recipient, which, according to the rules of inheritance, again decreases rapidly with increasing group size. These results explain why helping behaviours in very large social groups are limited to cases where the number of reproducing individuals is small, as in social insects, or where there are social institutions that can promote (possibly through sanctioning) large-scale cooperation, as in human societies. Finally, we discuss how individually devised institutions can foster the transition from small-scale to large-scale cooperative groups in human evolution. © 2016 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Reproductive characteristics and population decline of four species of skate (Rajidae) off the eastern coast of Canada.

PubMed

Mcphie, R P; Campana, S E

2009-07-01

Four of the most common species of skate (Rajidae) were studied off eastern Canada to determine if their reproductive characteristics were linked to their population trajectories. The fecundity of the winter skate Leucoraja ocellata, the little skate Leucoraja erinacea, the thorny skate Amblyraja radiata and the smooth skate Malacoraja senta averaged between 41 and 56 egg cases per year for each species. For all species but L. ocellata, males matured at larger sizes and at later ages than females. Theoretical rates of population increase for non-equilibrium populations of L. ocellata (c. 0.07), M. senta (c. 0.14) and L. erinacea and A. radiata (c. 0.20) were low compared to most fishes, indicating that north-west Atlantic skates are intrinsically unproductive, yet are theoretically capable of supporting low-level fisheries. Nevertheless, the results of 36 years of research surveys indicate that the abundance of mature L. ocellata, A. radiata and M. senta all decreased by >90% since 1970, indicating that past fishing mortality (both directed and undirected) has outstripped the net productivity of the skate populations on the eastern Scotian Shelf. The relationship between maximum age (t(max)) and age of maturity (t(mat)) was a better predictor of population growth rate than was body size, with the species exhibiting the highest ratios of t(mat) :t(max) (L. ocellata = 0.68, M. senta = 0.66) having the lowest predicted population growth rates. L. ocellata appears to have the lowest productivity and has experienced the greatest population decline, thus raising concerns over its future status.

Structural brain development between childhood and adulthood: Convergence across four longitudinal samples.

PubMed

Mills, Kathryn L; Goddings, Anne-Lise; Herting, Megan M; Meuwese, Rosa; Blakemore, Sarah-Jayne; Crone, Eveline A; Dahl, Ronald E; Güroğlu, Berna; Raznahan, Armin; Sowell, Elizabeth R; Tamnes, Christian K

2016-11-01

Longitudinal studies including brain measures acquired through magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) have enabled population models of human brain development, crucial for our understanding of typical development as well as neurodevelopmental disorders. Brain development in the first two decades generally involves early cortical grey matter volume (CGMV) increases followed by decreases, and monotonic increases in cerebral white matter volume (CWMV). However, inconsistencies regarding the precise developmental trajectories call into question the comparability of samples. This issue can be addressed by conducting a comprehensive study across multiple datasets from diverse populations. Here, we present replicable models for gross structural brain development between childhood and adulthood (ages 8-30years) by repeating analyses in four separate longitudinal samples (391 participants; 852 scans). In addition, we address how accounting for global measures of cranial/brain size affect these developmental trajectories. First, we found evidence for continued development of both intracranial volume (ICV) and whole brain volume (WBV) through adolescence, albeit following distinct trajectories. Second, our results indicate that CGMV is at its highest in childhood, decreasing steadily through the second decade with deceleration in the third decade, while CWMV increases until mid-to-late adolescence before decelerating. Importantly, we show that accounting for cranial/brain size affects models of regional brain development, particularly with respect to sex differences. Our results increase confidence in our knowledge of the pattern of brain changes during adolescence, reduce concerns about discrepancies across samples, and suggest some best practices for statistical control of cranial volume and brain size in future studies. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Novel Modeling Approach for Estimating Patterns of Migration into and out of San Francisco by HIV Status and Race among Men Who Have Sex with Men.

PubMed

Hughes, Alison J; Chen, Yea-Hung; Scheer, Susan; Raymond, H Fisher

2017-06-01

In the early 1980s, men who have sex with men (MSM) in San Francisco were one of the first populations to be affected by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic, and they continue to bear a heavy HIV burden. Once a rapidly fatal disease, survival with HIV improved drastically following the introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy in 1996. As a result, the ability of HIV-positive persons to move into and out of San Francisco has increased due to lengthened survival. Although there is a high level of migration among the general US population and among HIV-positive persons in San Francisco, in- and out-migration patterns of MSM in San Francisco have, to our knowledge, never been described. Understanding migration patterns by HIV serostatus is crucial in determining how migration could influence both HIV transmission dynamics and estimates of the HIV prevalence and incidence. In this article, we describe methods, results, and implications of a novel approach for indirect estimation of in- and out-migration patterns, and consequently population size, of MSM by HIV serostatus and race in San Francisco. The results suggest that the overall MSM population and all the MSM subpopulations studied decreased in size from 2006 to 2014. Further, there were differences in migration patterns by race and by HIV serostatus. The modeling methods outlined can be applied by others to determine how migration patterns contribute to HIV-positive population size and output from these models can be used in a transmission model to better understand how migration can impact HIV transmission.

The assessment of biases in the acoustic discrimination of individuals

PubMed Central

Šálek, Martin

2017-01-01

Animal vocalizations contain information about individual identity that could potentially be used for the monitoring of individuals. However, the performance of individual discrimination is subjected to many biases depending on factors such as the amount of identity information, or methods used. These factors need to be taken into account when comparing results of different studies or selecting the most cost-effective solution for a particular species. In this study, we evaluate several biases associated with the discrimination of individuals. On a large sample of little owl male individuals, we assess how discrimination performance changes with methods of call description, an increasing number of individuals, and number of calls per male. Also, we test whether the discrimination performance within the whole population can be reliably estimated from a subsample of individuals in a pre-screening study. Assessment of discrimination performance at the level of the individual and at the level of call led to different conclusions. Hence, studies interested in individual discrimination should optimize methods at the level of individuals. The description of calls by their frequency modulation leads to the best discrimination performance. In agreement with our expectations, discrimination performance decreased with population size. Increasing the number of calls per individual linearly increased the discrimination of individuals (but not the discrimination of calls), likely because it allows distinction between individuals with very similar calls. The available pre-screening index does not allow precise estimation of the population size that could be reliably monitored. Overall, projects applying acoustic monitoring at the individual level in population need to consider limitations regarding the population size that can be reliably monitored and fine-tune their methods according to their needs and limitations. PMID:28486488

Do unpaved, low-traffic roads affect bird communities?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mammides, Christos; Kounnamas, Constantinos; Goodale, Eben; Kadis, Costas

2016-02-01

Unpaved, low traffic roads are often assumed to have minimal effects on biodiversity. To explore this assertion, we sampled the bird communities in fifteen randomly selected sites in Pafos Forest, Cyprus and used multiple regression to quantify the effects of such roads on the total species richness. Moreover, we classified birds according to their migratory status and their global population trends, and tested each category separately. Besides the total length of unpaved roads, we also tested: a. the site's habitat diversity, b. the coefficient of variation in habitat (patch) size, c. the distance to the nearest agricultural field, and d. the human population size of the nearest village. We measured our variables at six different distances from the bird point-count locations. We found a strong negative relationship between the total bird richness and the total length of unpaved roads. The human population size of the nearest village also had a negative effect. Habitat diversity was positively related to species richness. When the categories were tested, we found that the passage migrants were influenced more by the road network while resident breeders were influenced by habitat diversity. Species with increasing and stable populations were only marginally affected by the variables tested, but the effect of road networks on species with decreasing populations was large. We conclude that unpaved and sporadically used roads can have detrimental effects on the bird communities, especially on vulnerable species. We propose that actions are taken to limit the extent of road networks within protected areas, especially in sites designated for their rich avifauna, such as Pafos Forest, where several of the affected species are species of European and global importance.

Using multiple data types and integrated population models to improve our knowledge of apex predator population dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bled, Florent; Belant, Jerrold L.; Van Daele, Lawrence J.; Svoboda, Nathan; Gustine, David D.; Hilderbrand, Grant V.; Barnes, Victor G.

2017-01-01

Current management of large carnivores is informed using a variety of parameters, methods, and metrics; however, these data are typically considered independently. Sharing information among data types based on the underlying ecological, and recognizing observation biases, can improve estimation of individual and global parameters. We present a general integrated population model (IPM), specifically designed for brown bears (Ursus arctos), using three common data types for bear (U. spp.) populations: repeated counts, capture–mark–recapture, and litter size. We considered factors affecting ecological and observation processes for these data. We assessed the practicality of this approach on a simulated population and compared estimates from our model to values used for simulation and results from count data only. We then present a practical application of this general approach adapted to the constraints of a case study using historical data available for brown bears on Kodiak Island, Alaska, USA. The IPM provided more accurate and precise estimates than models accounting for repeated count data only, with credible intervals including the true population 94% and 5% of the time, respectively. For the Kodiak population, we estimated annual average litter size (within one year after birth) to vary between 0.45 [95% credible interval: 0.43; 0.55] and 1.59 [1.55; 1.82]. We detected a positive relationship between salmon availability and adult survival, with survival probabilities greater for females than males. Survival probabilities increased from cubs to yearlings to dependent young ≥2 years old and decreased with litter size. Linking multiple information sources based on ecological and observation mechanisms can provide more accurate and precise estimates, to better inform management. IPMs can also reduce data collection efforts by sharing information among agencies and management units. Our approach responds to an increasing need in bear populations’ management and can be readily adapted to other large carnivores.

Population Density Modulates Drug Inhibition and Gives Rise to Potential Bistability of Treatment Outcomes for Bacterial Infections.

PubMed

Karslake, Jason; Maltas, Jeff; Brumm, Peter; Wood, Kevin B

2016-10-01

The inoculum effect (IE) is an increase in the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of an antibiotic as a function of the initial size of a microbial population. The IE has been observed in a wide range of bacteria, implying that antibiotic efficacy may depend on population density. Such density dependence could have dramatic effects on bacterial population dynamics and potential treatment strategies, but explicit measures of per capita growth as a function of density are generally not available. Instead, the IE measures MIC as a function of initial population size, and population density changes by many orders of magnitude on the timescale of the experiment. Therefore, the functional relationship between population density and antibiotic inhibition is generally not known, leaving many questions about the impact of the IE on different treatment strategies unanswered. To address these questions, here we directly measured real-time per capita growth of Enterococcus faecalis populations exposed to antibiotic at fixed population densities using multiplexed computer-automated culture devices. We show that density-dependent growth inhibition is pervasive for commonly used antibiotics, with some drugs showing increased inhibition and others decreased inhibition at high densities. For several drugs, the density dependence is mediated by changes in extracellular pH, a community-level phenomenon not previously linked with the IE. Using a simple mathematical model, we demonstrate how this density dependence can modulate population dynamics in constant drug environments. Then, we illustrate how time-dependent dosing strategies can mitigate the negative effects of density-dependence. Finally, we show that these density effects lead to bistable treatment outcomes for a wide range of antibiotic concentrations in a pharmacological model of antibiotic treatment. As a result, infections exceeding a critical density often survive otherwise effective treatments.

Population Density Modulates Drug Inhibition and Gives Rise to Potential Bistability of Treatment Outcomes for Bacterial Infections

PubMed Central

Maltas, Jeff; Brumm, Peter; Wood, Kevin B.

2016-01-01

The inoculum effect (IE) is an increase in the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of an antibiotic as a function of the initial size of a microbial population. The IE has been observed in a wide range of bacteria, implying that antibiotic efficacy may depend on population density. Such density dependence could have dramatic effects on bacterial population dynamics and potential treatment strategies, but explicit measures of per capita growth as a function of density are generally not available. Instead, the IE measures MIC as a function of initial population size, and population density changes by many orders of magnitude on the timescale of the experiment. Therefore, the functional relationship between population density and antibiotic inhibition is generally not known, leaving many questions about the impact of the IE on different treatment strategies unanswered. To address these questions, here we directly measured real-time per capita growth of Enterococcus faecalis populations exposed to antibiotic at fixed population densities using multiplexed computer-automated culture devices. We show that density-dependent growth inhibition is pervasive for commonly used antibiotics, with some drugs showing increased inhibition and others decreased inhibition at high densities. For several drugs, the density dependence is mediated by changes in extracellular pH, a community-level phenomenon not previously linked with the IE. Using a simple mathematical model, we demonstrate how this density dependence can modulate population dynamics in constant drug environments. Then, we illustrate how time-dependent dosing strategies can mitigate the negative effects of density-dependence. Finally, we show that these density effects lead to bistable treatment outcomes for a wide range of antibiotic concentrations in a pharmacological model of antibiotic treatment. As a result, infections exceeding a critical density often survive otherwise effective treatments. PMID:27764095

Population demographics and genetic diversity in remnant and translocated populations of sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bodkin, James L.; Ballachey, Brenda E.; Cronin, M.A.; Scribner, K.T.

1999-01-01

The effects of small population size on genetic diversity and subsequent population recovery are theoretically predicted, but few empirical data are available to describe those relations. We use data from four remnant and three translocated sea otter (Enhydra lutris) populations to examine relations among magnitude and duration of minimum population size, population growth rates, and genetic variation. Metochondrial (mt)DNA haplotype diversity was correlated with the number of years at minimum population size (r = -0.741, p = 0.038) and minimum population size (r = 0.709, p = 0.054). We found no relation between population growth and haplotype diversity, altough growth was significantly greater in translocated than in remnant populations. Haplotype diversity in populations established from two sources was higher than in a population established from a single source and was higher than in the respective source populations. Haplotype frequencies in translocated populations of founding sizes of 4 and 28 differed from expected, indicating genetic drift and differential reproduction between source populations, whereas haplotype frequencies in a translocated population with a founding size of 150 did not. Relations between population demographics and genetic characteristics suggest that genetic sampling of source and translocated populations can provide valuable inferences about translocations.

Evidence for r- and K-selection in a wild bird population: a reciprocal link between ecology and evolution.

PubMed

Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Visser, Marcel E; Grøtan, Vidar; Engen, Steinar

2016-04-27

Understanding the variation in selection pressure on key life-history traits is crucial in our rapidly changing world. Density is rarely considered as a selective agent. To study its importance, we partition phenotypic selection in fluctuating environments into components representing the population growth rate at low densities and the strength of density dependence, using a new stochastic modelling framework. We analysed the number of eggs laid per season in a small song-bird, the great tit, and found balancing selection favouring large clutch sizes at small population densities and smaller clutches in years with large populations. A significant interaction between clutch size and population size in the regression for the Malthusian fitness reveals that those females producing large clutch sizes at small population sizes also are those that show the strongest reduction in fitness when population size is increased. This provides empirical support for ongoing r- and K-selection in this population, favouring phenotypes with large growth rates r at small population sizes and phenotypes with high competitive skills when populations are close to the carrying capacity K This selection causes long-term fluctuations around a stable mean clutch size caused by variation in population size, implying that r- and K-selection is an important mechanism influencing phenotypic evolution in fluctuating environments. This provides a general link between ecological dynamics and evolutionary processes, operating through a joint influence of density dependence and environmental stochasticity on fluctuations in population size. © 2016 The Author(s).

Whooping cough dynamics in Chile (1932-2010): disease temporal fluctuations across a north-south gradient.

PubMed

Lima, Mauricio; Estay, Sergio A; Fuentes, Rodrigo; Rubilar, Paola; Broutin, Hélène; Chowell-Puente, Gerardo

2015-12-30

The spatial-temporal dynamics of Bordetella pertussis remains as a highly interesting case in infectious disease epidemiology. Despite large-scale vaccination programs in place for over 50 years around the world, frequent outbreaks are still reported in many countries. Here, we use annual time series of pertussis incidence from the thirteen different regions of Chile (1952-2010) to study the spatial-temporal dynamics of Pertussis. The period 1975-1995 was characterized by a strong 4 year cycle, while the last two decades of the study period (1990-2010) were characterized by disease resurgence without significant periodic patterns. During the first decades, differences in periodic patterns across regions can be explained by the differences in susceptible recruitment. The observed shift in periodicity from the period 1952-1974 to the period 1975-1995 across regions was relatively well predicted by the susceptible recruitment and population size. However, data on vaccination rates was not taken into account in this study. Our findings highlight how demography and population size have interacted with the immunization program in shaping periodicity along a unique latitudinal gradient. Widespread B. pertussis vaccination appears to lead to longer periodic dynamics, which is line with a reduction in B. pertussis transmission, but our findings indicate that regions characterized by both low birth rate and population size decreased in periodicity following immunization efforts.

A rare functional cardioprotective APOC3 variant has risen in frequency in distinct population isolates

PubMed Central

Tachmazidou, Ioanna; Dedoussis, George; Southam, Lorraine; Farmaki, Aliki-Eleni; Ritchie, Graham R. S.; Xifara, Dionysia K.; Matchan, Angela; Hatzikotoulas, Konstantinos; Rayner, Nigel W.; Chen, Yuan; Pollin, Toni I.; O’Connell, Jeffrey R.; Yerges-Armstrong, Laura M.; Kiagiadaki, Chrysoula; Panoutsopoulou, Kalliope; Schwartzentruber, Jeremy; Moutsianas, Loukas; Tsafantakis, Emmanouil; Tyler-Smith, Chris; McVean, Gil; Xue, Yali; Zeggini, Eleftheria

2013-01-01

Isolated populations can empower the identification of rare variation associated with complex traits through next generation association studies, but the generalizability of such findings remains unknown. Here we genotype 1,267 individuals from a Greek population isolate on the Illumina HumanExome Beadchip, in search of functional coding variants associated with lipids traits. We find genome-wide significant evidence for association between R19X, a functional variant in APOC3, with increased high-density lipoprotein and decreased triglycerides levels. Approximately 3.8% of individuals are heterozygous for this cardioprotective variant, which was previously thought to be private to the Amish founder population. R19X is rare (<0.05% frequency) in outbred European populations. The increased frequency of R19X enables discovery of this lipid traits signal at genome-wide significance in a small sample size. This work exemplifies the value of isolated populations in successfully detecting transferable rare variant associations of high medical relevance. PMID:24343240

A rare functional cardioprotective APOC3 variant has risen in frequency in distinct population isolates.

PubMed

Tachmazidou, Ioanna; Dedoussis, George; Southam, Lorraine; Farmaki, Aliki-Eleni; Ritchie, Graham R S; Xifara, Dionysia K; Matchan, Angela; Hatzikotoulas, Konstantinos; Rayner, Nigel W; Chen, Yuan; Pollin, Toni I; O'Connell, Jeffrey R; Yerges-Armstrong, Laura M; Kiagiadaki, Chrysoula; Panoutsopoulou, Kalliope; Schwartzentruber, Jeremy; Moutsianas, Loukas; Tsafantakis, Emmanouil; Tyler-Smith, Chris; McVean, Gil; Xue, Yali; Zeggini, Eleftheria

2013-01-01

Isolated populations can empower the identification of rare variation associated with complex traits through next generation association studies, but the generalizability of such findings remains unknown. Here we genotype 1,267 individuals from a Greek population isolate on the Illumina HumanExome Beadchip, in search of functional coding variants associated with lipids traits. We find genome-wide significant evidence for association between R19X, a functional variant in APOC3, with increased high-density lipoprotein and decreased triglycerides levels. Approximately 3.8% of individuals are heterozygous for this cardioprotective variant, which was previously thought to be private to the Amish founder population. R19X is rare (<0.05% frequency) in outbred European populations. The increased frequency of R19X enables discovery of this lipid traits signal at genome-wide significance in a small sample size. This work exemplifies the value of isolated populations in successfully detecting transferable rare variant associations of high medical relevance.

Interspecific variation in the relationship between clutch size, laying date and intensity of urbanization in four species of hole-nesting birds.

PubMed

Vaugoyeau, Marie; Adriaensen, Frank; Artemyev, Alexandr; Bańbura, Jerzy; Barba, Emilio; Biard, Clotilde; Blondel, Jacques; Bouslama, Zihad; Bouvier, Jean-Charles; Camprodon, Jordi; Cecere, Francesco; Charmantier, Anne; Charter, Motti; Cichoń, Mariusz; Cusimano, Camillo; Czeszczewik, Dorota; Demeyrier, Virginie; Doligez, Blandine; Doutrelant, Claire; Dubiec, Anna; Eens, Marcel; Eeva, Tapio; Faivre, Bruno; Ferns, Peter N; Forsman, Jukka T; García-Del-Rey, Eduardo; Goldshtein, Aya; Goodenough, Anne E; Gosler, Andrew G; Grégoire, Arnaud; Gustafsson, Lars; Harnist, Iga; Hartley, Ian R; Heeb, Philipp; Hinsley, Shelley A; Isenmann, Paul; Jacob, Staffan; Juškaitis, Rimvydas; Korpimäki, Erkki; Krams, Indrikis; Laaksonen, Toni; Lambrechts, Marcel M; Leclercq, Bernard; Lehikoinen, Esa; Loukola, Olli; Lundberg, Arne; Mainwaring, Mark C; Mänd, Raivo; Massa, Bruno; Mazgajski, Tomasz D; Merino, Santiago; Mitrus, Cezary; Mönkkönen, Mikko; Morin, Xavier; Nager, Ruedi G; Nilsson, Jan-Åke; Nilsson, Sven G; Norte, Ana C; Orell, Markku; Perret, Philippe; Perrins, Christopher M; Pimentel, Carla S; Pinxten, Rianne; Richner, Heinz; Robles, Hugo; Rytkönen, Seppo; Senar, Juan Carlos; Seppänen, Janne T; Pascoal da Silva, Luis; Slagsvold, Tore; Solonen, Tapio; Sorace, Alberto; Stenning, Martyn J; Tryjanowski, Piotr; von Numers, Mikael; Walankiewicz, Wieslaw; Møller, Anders Pape

2016-08-01

The increase in size of human populations in urban and agricultural areas has resulted in considerable habitat conversion globally. Such anthropogenic areas have specific environmental characteristics, which influence the physiology, life history, and population dynamics of plants and animals. For example, the date of bud burst is advanced in urban compared to nearby natural areas. In some birds, breeding success is determined by synchrony between timing of breeding and peak food abundance. Pertinently, caterpillars are an important food source for the nestlings of many bird species, and their abundance is influenced by environmental factors such as temperature and date of bud burst. Higher temperatures and advanced date of bud burst in urban areas could advance peak caterpillar abundance and thus affect breeding phenology of birds. In order to test whether laying date advance and clutch sizes decrease with the intensity of urbanization, we analyzed the timing of breeding and clutch size in relation to intensity of urbanization as a measure of human impact in 199 nest box plots across Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East (i.e., the Western Palearctic) for four species of hole-nesters: blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus), great tits (Parus major), collared flycatchers (Ficedula albicollis), and pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca). Meanwhile, we estimated the intensity of urbanization as the density of buildings surrounding study plots measured on orthophotographs. For the four study species, the intensity of urbanization was not correlated with laying date. Clutch size in blue and great tits does not seem affected by the intensity of urbanization, while in collared and pied flycatchers it decreased with increasing intensity of urbanization. This is the first large-scale study showing a species-specific major correlation between intensity of urbanization and the ecology of breeding. The underlying mechanisms for the relationships between life history and urbanization remain to be determined. We propose that effects of food abundance or quality, temperature, noise, pollution, or disturbance by humans may on their own or in combination affect laying date and/or clutch size.

Morphological and colour morph clines along an altitudinal gradient in the meadow grasshopper Pseudochorthippus parallelus.

PubMed

Köhler, Günter; Samietz, Jörg; Schielzeth, Holger

2017-01-01

Many animals show altitudinal clines in size, shape and body colour. Increases in body size and reduction in the length of body appendices in colder habitats are usually attributed to improved heat conservation at lower surface-to-volume ratios (known as Bergmann's and Allen's rule, respectively). However, the patterns are more variable and sometimes reversed in small ectotherms that are affected by shortened growing seasons. Altitude can also affect colouration. The thermal melanism hypothesis predicts darker colours under cooler conditions because of a thermoregulatory advantage. Darker colours may also be favoured at high altitudes for reasons of UV protection or habitat-dependent crypsis. We studied altitudinal variation in morphology and colour in the colour-polymorphic meadow grasshopper Pseudochorthippus parallelus based on 563 individuals from 17 populations sampled between 450 and 2,500 m asl. Pronotum length did not change with altitude, while postfemur length decreased significantly in both sexes. Tegmen (forewing) length decreased in males, but not in females. The results indicate that while body size, as best quantified by pronotum length, was remarkably constant, extended appendices were reduced at high altitudes. The pattern thus follows Allen's rule, but neither Bergmann's nor converse Bergmann's rule. These results indicate that inference of converse Bergmann's rule based on measurements from appendices should be treated with some caution. Colour morph ratios showed significant changes in both sexes from lowland populations dominated by green individuals to high-altitude populations dominated by brown ones. The increase of brown morphs was particularly steep between 1,500 and 2,000 m asl. The results suggest shared control of colour in males and females and local adaptation along the altitudinal gradient following the predictions of the thermal melanism hypothesis. Interestingly, both patterns, the reduction of body appendices and the higher frequency of brown individuals, may be explained by a need for efficient thermoregulation under high-altitude conditions.

Mucosal Cysts of the Maxillary Sinus in Solid Organ Transplant Population: Computerised Tomography Follow-Up Results

PubMed Central

Aydın, Erdinç; Yerli, Hasan; Tanrıkulu, Suna; Hizal, Evren

2013-01-01

Background: The clinical significance of maxillary sinus mucosal cysts in liver and kidney transplant recipients remains unclear. Aim: To investigate the course of maxillary mucosal cysts in liver and kidney transplantation patients. Study Design: Retrospective clinical study Methods: Paranasal sinus computed tomography scans of 169 renal and 43 hepatic transplant recipients were reviewed. The incidence, size and growth characteristics of maxillary mucosal cysts in the renal and hepatic transplant population were noted. Results: Overall incidence of maxillary sinus mucosal cyst in transplantation patients was found to be 24.5%, with a male to female ratio of 2:1 (p<0.05). Follow-up views of 26 patients showed that the size of the cysts increased in 19, decreased in 4, and remained the same in 3 patients. Mean growth rate of the cysts was calculated to be 6.30 ± 7.02 mm2 per month. Most of the cysts were located on the inferior wall of the maxillary sinus. Conclusion: Incidence of the maxillary mucosal cysts in renal and hepatic transplant recipients does not differ from general population, but these cysts have a greater tendency to grow. Specific measures are not needed for isolated, asymptomatic maxillary mucosal cysts in transplant populations. PMID:25207125

Evolutionary behaviour, trade-offs and cyclic and chaotic population dynamics.

PubMed

Hoyle, Andy; Bowers, Roger G; White, Andy

2011-05-01

Many studies of the evolution of life-history traits assume that the underlying population dynamical attractor is stable point equilibrium. However, evolutionary outcomes can change significantly in different circumstances. We present an analysis based on adaptive dynamics of a discrete-time demographic model involving a trade-off whose shape is also an important determinant of evolutionary behaviour. We derive an explicit expression for the fitness in the cyclic region and consequently present an adaptive dynamic analysis which is algebraic. We do this fully in the region of 2-cycles and (using a symbolic package) almost fully for 4-cycles. Simulations illustrate and verify our results. With equilibrium population dynamics, trade-offs with accelerating costs produce a continuously stable strategy (CSS) whereas trade-offs with decelerating costs produce a non-ES repellor. The transition to 2-cycles produces a discontinuous change: the appearance of an intermediate region in which branching points occur. The size of this region decreases as we move through the region of 2-cycles. There is a further discontinuous fall in the size of the branching region during the transition to 4-cycles. We extend our results numerically and with simulations to higher-period cycles and chaos. Simulations show that chaotic population dynamics can evolve from equilibrium and vice-versa.

Geographic body size variation in the periodical cicadas Magicicada: implications for life cycle divergence and local adaptation.

PubMed

Koyama, T; Ito, H; Kakishima, S; Yoshimura, J; Cooley, J R; Simon, C; Sota, T

2015-06-01

Seven species in three species groups (Decim, Cassini and Decula) of periodical cicadas (Magicicada) occupy a wide latitudinal range in the eastern United States. To clarify how adult body size, a key trait affecting fitness, varies geographically with climate conditions and life cycle, we analysed the relationships of population mean head width to geographic variables (latitude, longitude, altitude), habitat annual mean temperature (AMT), life cycle and species differences. Within species, body size was larger in females than males and decreased with increasing latitude (and decreasing habitat AMT), following the converse Bergmann's rule. For the pair of recently diverged 13- and 17-year species in each group, 13-year cicadas were equal in size or slightly smaller on average than their 17-year counterparts despite their shorter developmental time. This fact suggests that, under the same climatic conditions, 17-year cicadas have lowered growth rates compared to their 13-years counterparts, allowing 13-year cicadas with faster growth rates to achieve body sizes equivalent to those of their 17-year counterparts at the same locations. However, in the Decim group, which includes two 13-year species, the more southerly, anciently diverged 13-year species (Magicicada tredecim) was characterized by a larger body size than the other, more northerly 13- and 17-year species, suggesting that local adaptation in warmer habitats may ultimately lead to evolution of larger body sizes. Our results demonstrate how geographic clines in body size may be maintained in sister species possessing different life cycles. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Evolution of movement rate increases the effectiveness of marine reserves for the conservation of pelagic fishes.

PubMed

Mee, Jonathan A; Otto, Sarah P; Pauly, Daniel

2017-06-01

Current debates about the efficacy of no-take marine reserves (MR) in protecting large pelagic fish such as tuna and sharks have usually not considered the evolutionary dimension of this issue, which emerges because the propensity to swim away from a given place, like any other biological trait, will probably vary in a heritable fashion among individuals. Here, based on spatially explicit simulations, we investigated whether selection to remain in MRs to avoid higher fishing mortality can lead to the evolution of more philopatric fish. Our simulations, which covered a range of life histories among tuna species (skipjack tuna vs. Atlantic bluefin tuna) and shark species (great white sharks vs. spiny dogfish), suggested that MRs were most effective at maintaining viable population sizes when movement distances were lowest. Decreased movement rate evolved following the establishment of marine reserves, and this evolution occurred more rapidly with higher fishing pressure. Evolutionary reductions in movement rate led to increases in within-reserve population sizes over the course of the 50 years following MR establishment, although this varied among life histories, with skipjack responding fastest and great white sharks slowest. Our results suggest the evolution of decreased movement can augment the efficacy of marine reserves, especially for species, such as skipjack tuna, with relatively short generation times. Even when movement rates did not evolve substantially over 50 years (e.g., given long generation times or little heritable variation), marine reserves were an effective tool for the conservation of fish populations when mean movement rates were low or MRs were large.

Temperature and food quantity effects on the harpacticoid copepod Nitocra spinipes: Combining in vivo bioassays with population modeling

PubMed Central

Bui, Thuy T.; Lundström Belleza, Elin; Brinkmann, Markus; Hollert, Henner; Breitholtz, Magnus

2017-01-01

The harpacticoid copepod Nitocra spinipes has become a popular model species for toxicity testing over the past few decades. However, the combined influence of temperature and food shortage, two climate change-related stressors, has never been assessed in this species. Consequently, effects of three temperatures (15, 20 and 25°C) and six food regimes (between 0 and 5 × 105 algal cells/mL) on the life cycle of N. spinipes were examined in this study. Similarly to other copepod species, development times and brood sizes decreased with rising temperatures. Mortality was lowest in the 20°C temperature setup, indicating a close-by temperature optimum for this species. Decreasing food concentrations led to increased development times, higher mortality and a reduction in brood size. A sex ratio shift toward more females per male was observed for increasing temperatures, while no significant relationship with food concentration was found. Temperature and food functions for each endpoint were integrated into an existing individual-based population model for N. spinipes which in the future may serve as an extrapolation tool in environmental risk assessment. The model was able to accurately reproduce the experimental data in subsequent verification simulations. We suggest that temperature, food shortage, and potentially other climate change-related stressors should be considered in environmental risk assessment of chemicals to account for non-optimal exposure conditions that may occur in the field. Furthermore, we advocate combining in vivo bioassays with population modeling as a cost effective higher tier approach to assess such considerations. PMID:28334000

Network Confinement and Heterogeneity Slows Nanoparticle Diffusion in Polymer Gels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parrish, Emmabeth; Caporizzo, Matthew; Composto, Russell

Nanoparticle (NP) diffusion was measured in polyacrylamide gels (PAG) with a mesh size comparable to NP size, 20nm. The confinement ratio (CR), NP diameter/mesh, increased from 0.4 to 3.8 by increasing crosslinker density and 0.4 to 2 by adding acetone, which collapsed PAG. In all gels, NPs either became localized (<200nm) or diffused microns, as measured by single particle tracking. Mean squared displacements (MSD) of mobile NPs decreased as CR increased. In collapsed gels, the localized NP population increased and MSD of mobile NPs decreased compared to crosslinked PAG. For all CRs, van Hove distributions exhibited non-Gaussian displacements consistent with intermittent localization of NPs. The non-Gaussian parameter increased from a maximum of 1.5 for crosslinked PAG to 5 for collapsed PAG, consistent with greater network heterogeneity. Diffusion coefficients, D, decreased exponentially as CR increased for crosslinked gels, but in collapsed gels D decreased more strongly, suggesting CR alone was insufficient to capture diffusion. Collapsing the gel resulted in an increasingly tortuous pathway for NPs, slowing diffusion at a given CR. Understanding how gel structure affects NP mobility will allow the design of gels with improved ability to separate and release molecules. ACS/PRF 54028-ND7, NSF/MWN DMR-1210379.

On the absence of a correlation between population size and 'toolkit size' in ethnographic hunter-gatherers.

PubMed

Aoki, Kenichi

2018-04-05

In apparent contradiction to the theoretically predicted effect of population size on the quality/quantity of material culture, statistical analyses on ethnographic hunter-gatherers have shown an absence of correlation between population size and toolkit size. This has sparked a heated, if sometimes tangential, debate as to the usefulness of the theoretical models and as to what modes of cultural transmission humans are capable of and hunter-gatherers rely on. I review the directly relevant theoretical literature and argue that much of the confusion is caused by a mismatch between the theoretical variable and the empirical observable. I then confirm that a model incorporating the appropriate variable does predict a positive association between population size and toolkit size for random oblique, vertical, best-of- K , conformist, anticonformist, success bias and one-to-many cultural transmission, with the caveat that for all populations sampled, the population size has remained constant and toolkit size has reached the equilibrium for this population size. Finally, I suggest three theoretical scenarios, two of them involving variable population size, that would attenuate or eliminate this association and hence help to explain the empirical absence of correlation.This article is part of the theme issue 'Bridging cultural gaps: interdisciplinary studies in human cultural evolution'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Making It Count: Improving Estimates of the Size of Transgender and Gender Nonconforming Populations.

PubMed

Deutsch, Madeline B

2016-06-01

An accurate estimate of the number of transgender and gender nonconforming people is essential to inform policy and funding priorities and decisions. Historical reports of population sizes of 1 in 4000 to 1 in 50,000 have been based on clinical populations and likely underestimate the size of the transgender population. More recent population-based studies have found a 10- to 100-fold increase in population size. Studies that estimate population size should be population based, employ the two-step method to allow for collection of both gender identity and sex assigned at birth, and include measures to capture the range of transgender people with nonbinary gender identities.

Family physician clinical compensation in an academic environment: moving away from the relative value unit

PubMed Central

Lochner, Jennifer; Trowbridge, Elizabeth; Kamnetz, Sandra; Pandhi, Nancy

2016-01-01

Background and Objectives Primary care physician compensation structures have remained largely volume-based, lagging behind changes in reimbursement that increasingly include population approaches such as capitation, bundled payments, and care management fees. We describe a population health-based physician compensation plan developed for two departmental family medicine faculty groups (residency teaching clinic faculty and community clinic faculty) along with outcomes before and after the plan’s implementation. Methods An observational study was conducted. A pre-post email survey assessed satisfaction with the plan, salary, and salary equity. Physician retention, panel size, and relative value unit (RVU) productivity metrics also were assessed before and after the plan’s implementation. Results Before implementation of the new plan, 18% of residency faculty and 33% of community faculty were satisfied or very satisfied with compensation structure. After implementation, those numbers rose to 47% for residency physicians and 74% for community physicians (p<0.01). Satisfaction with the amount of compensation also rose from 33% to 68% for residency faculty and from 26% to 87% for community faculty (p<0.01). For both groups, panel size per clinical full-time equivalent increased and RVUs moved closer to national benchmarks. RVUs decreased for residency faculty and increased for community faculty. Conclusions Aligning a compensation plan with population health delivery by moving rewards away from RVU productivity and towards panel management resulted in improved physician satisfaction and retention, as well as larger panel sizes. RVU changes were less predictable. Physician compensation is an important component of care model redesign that emphasizes population health. PMID:27272423

Urbanization disrupts latitude-size rule in 17-year cicadas.

PubMed

Beasley, DeAnna E; Penick, Clint A; Boateng, Nana S; Menninger, Holly L; Dunn, Robert R

2018-03-01

Many ectotherms show a decrease in body size with increasing latitude due to changes in climate, a pattern termed converse Bergmann's rule. Urban conditions-particularly warmer temperatures and fragmented landscapes-may impose stresses on development that could disrupt these body size patterns. To test the impact of urbanization on development and latitudinal trends in body size, we launched a citizen science project to collect periodical cicadas ( Magicicada septendecim ) from across their latitudinal range during the 2013 emergence of Brood II. Periodical cicadas are long-lived insects whose distribution spans a broad latitudinal range covering both urban and rural habitats. We used a geometric morphometric approach to assess body size and developmental stress based on fluctuating asymmetry in wing shape. Body size of rural cicadas followed converse Bergmann's rule, but this pattern was disrupted in urban habitats. In the north, urban cicadas were larger than their rural counterparts, while southern populations showed little variation in body size between habitats. We detected no evidence of differences in developmental stress due to urbanization. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence that urbanization disrupts biogeographical trends in body size, and this pattern highlights how the effects of urbanization may differ over a species' range.

A study on the trinucleotide repeat associated with Huntington`s disease in the Chinese

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bing-wen Soong; Jih-tsuu Wang

1994-09-01

Analysis of the polymorphic (CAG)n repeat in the hungingtin gene in the chinese confirmed the presence of an expanded repeat on all Huntington`s disease chromosomes. Measurement of the specific CAG repeat sequence in 34 HD chromosomes from 15 unrelated families and 190 control chromosomes from the Chinese population showed a range from 9 to 29 repeats in normal subjects and 40 to 58 in affected subjects. The size distributions of normal and affected alleles did not overlap. A clear correlation bewteen early onset of symptoms and very high repeat number was seen, but the spread of the age-at-onset in themore » major repeat range producing characteristic HD it too wide to be of diagnostic value. There was also variability in the transmitted repeat size for both sexes in the HD size range. Maternal HD alleles showed a moderate instability with a preponderance of size decrease, while paternal HD alleles had a tendency to increase in repeat size on transmission, the degree of which appeared proportional to the initial size.« less

Nest survival relative to patch size in a highly fragmented shortgrass prairie landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skagen, S.K.; Yackel Adams, A.A.; Adams, R.D.

2005-01-01

Understanding the influences of habitat fragmentation on vertebrate populations is essential for the protection and ecological restoration of strategic sites for native species. We examined the effects of prairie fragmentation on avian reproductive success using artificial and natural nests on 26 randomly selected, privately owned patches of shortgrass prairie ranging in size from 7 to 454 ha within a cropland matrix in Washington County, Colorado, summer 2000. Survival trends of artificial and natural nests differed. Daily survival of artificial nests increased with patch size up to about 65 ha and differed little at larger patch sizes, whereas daily survival of Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys) and Horned Lark (Eremophila alpestris) nests decreased with increasing size of the grassland patch. We hypothesize that our unexpected findings of lower survival of natural nests with increasing patch sizes and different trends between artificial and natural nests are due to the particular structure of predator communities in our study area and the ways in which individual predators respond to artificial and natural nests. We recommend that the value of small habitat patches in highly fragmented landscapes not be overlooked.

How Life History Can Sway the Fixation Probability of Mutants

PubMed Central

Li, Xiang-Yi; Kurokawa, Shun; Giaimo, Stefano; Traulsen, Arne

2016-01-01

In this work, we study the effects of demographic structure on evolutionary dynamics when selection acts on reproduction, survival, or both. In contrast to the previously discovered pattern that the fixation probability of a neutral mutant decreases while the population becomes younger, we show that a mutant with a constant selective advantage may have a maximum or a minimum of the fixation probability in populations with an intermediate fraction of young individuals. This highlights the importance of life history and demographic structure in studying evolutionary dynamics. We also illustrate the fundamental differences between selection on reproduction and selection on survival when age structure is present. In addition, we evaluate the relative importance of size and structure of the population in determining the fixation probability of the mutant. Our work lays the foundation for also studying density- and frequency-dependent effects in populations when demographic structures cannot be neglected. PMID:27129737

Learning and robustness to catch-and-release fishing in a shark social network

PubMed Central

Brown, Culum; Planes, Serge

2017-01-01

Individuals can play different roles in maintaining connectivity and social cohesion in animal populations and thereby influence population robustness to perturbations. We performed a social network analysis in a reef shark population to assess the vulnerability of the global network to node removal under different scenarios. We found that the network was generally robust to the removal of nodes with high centrality. The network appeared also highly robust to experimental fishing. Individual shark catchability decreased as a function of experience, as revealed by comparing capture frequency and site presence. Altogether, these features suggest that individuals learnt to avoid capture, which ultimately increased network robustness to experimental catch-and-release. Our results also suggest that some caution must be taken when using capture–recapture models often used to assess population size as assumptions (such as equal probabilities of capture and recapture) may be violated by individual learning to escape recapture. PMID:28298593

Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lumi, N.; Mankin, R.

The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. Anmore » analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.« less

Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography.

PubMed

Bost, Charles A; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

2015-10-27

Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

Evaluating red-cockaded woodpeckers for exposure to West Nile Virus and blood parasites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dusek, Robert J.; Richardson, D.; Egstad, Kristina F.; Heisey, Dennis M.

2006-01-01

A marked decline in the Picoides borealis (Red-cockaded Woodpecker [RCW]) population at Noxubee National Wildlife Refuge, MS, was observed in 2002. Demographic changes - including absence of hatch-year birds, decreases in size of known groups, and loss of known groups-were identified during annual fall surveys and are uncharacteristic of RCW populations. In 2003, a serosurvey of 28 adult RCWs was conducted to investigate the presence of West Nile virus (WNV) exposure in the population, possibly providing insight into whether WNV may have been responsible for this decline. Blood smears were also examined from these birds for blood parasites. We found no evidence of West Nile virus exposure or blood parasites in any of the RCWs sampled. Further monitoring of the RCW population and WNV activity in other species at Noxubee NWR is recommended to further evaluate the potential role of WNV and blood parasites in their decline.

Large-scale climatic anomalies affect marine predator foraging behaviour and demography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bost, Charles A.; Cotté, Cedric; Terray, Pascal; Barbraud, Christophe; Bon, Cécile; Delord, Karine; Gimenez, Olivier; Handrich, Yves; Naito, Yasuhiko; Guinet, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

2015-10-01

Determining the links between the behavioural and population responses of wild species to environmental variations is critical for understanding the impact of climate variability on ecosystems. Using long-term data sets, we show how large-scale climatic anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere affect the foraging behaviour and population dynamics of a key marine predator, the king penguin. When large-scale subtropical dipole events occur simultaneously in both subtropical Southern Indian and Atlantic Oceans, they generate tropical anomalies that shift the foraging zone southward. Consequently the distances that penguins foraged from the colony and their feeding depths increased and the population size decreased. This represents an example of a robust and fast impact of large-scale climatic anomalies affecting a marine predator through changes in its at-sea behaviour and demography, despite lack of information on prey availability. Our results highlight a possible behavioural mechanism through which climate variability may affect population processes.

[Specific features of nesting bird populations in forest-meadow-field landscapes of Meshchovsk Opolye reflect the diversity of their biotope connections].

PubMed

Kut'in, S D; Konstantinov, V M

2008-01-01

Studies on specific features of nesting bird populations in patchy landscapes were performed in Meshchovsk Opolye, Kaluga Region, from 1981 to 1990. Indices of similarity between the avifaunas of agricultural fields, lowland bogs, and small-leaved forests markedly differed from parameters of their population density in rank and value. In the series of biotopes differing in the relative amount of woodland, from central areas of small-leaved forests to forest margins and then to forest islands gradually decreasing in size, the birds segregated into two distinct groups, one characteristic of forest margins and large forest islands and the other characteristic of small and very small forest islands. Specific features of bird density distribution in forest-meadow-field landscapes of Meshchovsk Opolye reflected heterogeneity of their populations manifested in diverse connections with nesting biotopes.

Duplicate retention in signalling proteins and constraints from network dynamics.

PubMed

Soyer, O S; Creevey, C J

2010-11-01

Duplications are a major driving force behind evolution. Most duplicates are believed to fix through genetic drift, but it is not clear whether this process affects all duplications equally or whether there are certain gene families that are expected to show neutral expansions under certain circumstances. Here, we analyse the neutrality of duplications in different functional classes of signalling proteins based on their effects on response dynamics. We find that duplications involving intermediary proteins in a signalling network are neutral more often than those involving receptors. Although the fraction of neutral duplications in all functional classes increase with decreasing population size and selective pressure on dynamics, this effect is most pronounced for receptors, indicating a possible expansion of receptors in species with small population size. In line with such an expectation, we found a statistically significant increase in the number of receptors as a fraction of genome size in eukaryotes compared with prokaryotes. Although not confirmative, these results indicate that neutral processes can be a significant factor in shaping signalling networks and affect proteins from different functional classes differently. © 2010 The Authors. Journal Compilation © 2010 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Roles of diet protein and temperature in the nutritional energetics of juvenile slider turtles, Trachemys scripta:

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Avery, H.W.

1988-08-01

Juvenile slider turtles (Trachemys scripta) were used in laboratory experiments to determine the effects of dietary protein and ambient temperature on growth rates, food consumption rates, digestion rates and digestive efficiencies, in order to better understand how the interactive roles these environmental factors may potentially influence body sizes and growth rates of individuals among wild slider turtle populations. Changes in plastron length, carapace length and body mass were significantly greater for Trachemys scripta eating 25% and 40% crude protein diets than for those eating 10% crude protein. Those consuming 10% crude protein showed significant decreases in all measurements of bodymore » size over a 13 wk period. These data suggest that dietary protein may be an important nutritional component to the growth of juvenile slider turtles, and that elevated thermal conditions, combined with a high dietary protein availability, may in part explain the exceedingly high growth rates of slider turtles attained in certain wild populations. 63 refs., 11 figs., 6 tabs.« less

Is the lionfish invasion waning? Evidence from The Bahamas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benkwitt, Cassandra E.; Albins, Mark A.; Buch, Kevin L.; Ingeman, Kurt E.; Kindinger, Tye L.; Pusack, Timothy J.; Stallings, Christopher D.; Hixon, Mark A.

2017-12-01

Indo-Pacific lionfishes ( Pterois volitans/ miles) have undergone rapid population growth and reached extremely high densities in parts of the invaded Atlantic. However, their long-term population trends in areas without active management programs are unknown. Since 2005, we have monitored lionfish abundance in the Exuma Cays of the central Bahamas on 64 reefs ranging in size from 1 to 4000 m2. Lionfish densities increased from the first sighting in 2005 through 2009, leveled off between 2010 and 2011, and then began to decrease. By 2015, densities had noticeably declined on most of these reefs, despite a lack of culling or fishing efforts in this part of The Bahamas. There was no consistent change in lionfish size structure through time. We discuss possible causes of the decline, including reductions in larval supply or survival, hurricanes, interactions with native species, and intraspecific interactions. Further studies are required to determine whether the declines will persist. In the meantime, we recommend that managers continue efforts to control invasive lionfish abundances locally.

A neural basis for the spatial suppression of visual motion perception

PubMed Central

Liu, Liu D; Haefner, Ralf M; Pack, Christopher C

2016-01-01

In theory, sensory perception should be more accurate when more neurons contribute to the representation of a stimulus. However, psychophysical experiments that use larger stimuli to activate larger pools of neurons sometimes report impoverished perceptual performance. To determine the neural mechanisms underlying these paradoxical findings, we trained monkeys to discriminate the direction of motion of visual stimuli that varied in size across trials, while simultaneously recording from populations of motion-sensitive neurons in cortical area MT. We used the resulting data to constrain a computational model that explained the behavioral data as an interaction of three main mechanisms: noise correlations, which prevented stimulus information from growing with stimulus size; neural surround suppression, which decreased sensitivity for large stimuli; and a read-out strategy that emphasized neurons with receptive fields near the stimulus center. These results suggest that paradoxical percepts reflect tradeoffs between sensitivity and noise in neuronal populations. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.16167.001 PMID:27228283

North-South Colonization Associated with Local Adaptation of the Wild Tomato Species Solanum chilense.

PubMed

Böndel, Katharina B; Lainer, Hilde; Nosenko, Tetyana; Mboup, Mamadou; Tellier, Aurélien; Stephan, Wolfgang

2015-11-01

After colonization population sizes may vary across the species range depending on environmental conditions and following colonizations. An interesting question is whether local adaptation occurs more frequently in large ancestral populations or in small derived populations. A higher number of new mutations and a lower effect of genetic drift should favor selection in large populations, whereas small derived populations may require an initial local adaptation event to facilitate the colonization of new habitats. Wild tomatoes are native to a broad range of different habitats characterized by variable abiotic conditions in South America, and represent an ideal system to study this interplay between demography and natural selection. Population genetic analyses and statistical inference of past demography were conducted on pooled-sequencing data from 30 genes (8,080 single nucleotide polymorphisms) from an extensive sampling of 23 Solanum chilense populations over Chile and Peru. We reveal first a north-south colonization associated with relaxed purifying selection in the south as shown by a decrease of genetic variation and an increasing proportion of nonsynonymous polymorphism from north to south, and population substructure with at least four genetic groups. Second, we uncover a dual picture of adaptation consisting of 1) a decreasing proportion of adaptive amino acid substitutions from north to south suggesting that adaptation is favored in large populations, whereas 2) signatures of local adaptation predominantly occur in the smaller populations from the marginal ranges in the south. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Effective size of a wild salmonid population is greatly reduced by hatchery supplementation

PubMed Central

Christie, M R; Marine, M L; French, R A; Waples, R S; Blouin, M S

2012-01-01

Many declining and commercially important populations are supplemented with captive-born individuals that are intentionally released into the wild. These supplementation programs often create large numbers of offspring from relatively few breeding adults, which can have substantial population-level effects. We examined the genetic effects of supplementation on a wild population of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) from the Hood River, Oregon, by matching 12 run-years of hatchery steelhead back to their broodstock parents. We show that the effective number of breeders producing the hatchery fish (broodstock parents; Nb) was quite small (harmonic mean Nb=25 fish per brood-year vs 373 for wild fish), and was exacerbated by a high variance in broodstock reproductive success among individuals within years. The low Nb caused hatchery fish to have decreased allelic richness, increased average relatedness, more loci in linkage disequilibrium and substantial levels of genetic drift in comparison with their wild-born counterparts. We also documented a substantial Ryman–Laikre effect whereby the additional hatchery fish doubled the total number of adult fish on the spawning grounds each year, but cut the effective population size of the total population (wild and hatchery fish combined) by nearly two-thirds. We further demonstrate that the Ryman–Laikre effect is most severe in this population when (1) >10% of fish allowed onto spawning grounds are from hatcheries and (2) the hatchery fish have high reproductive success in the wild. These results emphasize the trade-offs that arise when supplementation programs attempt to balance disparate goals (increasing production while maintaining genetic diversity and fitness). PMID:22805657

Using an experimental manipulation to determine the effectiveness of a stock enhancement program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, David R.; Long, James M.

2015-01-01

We used an experimental manipulation to determine the impact of stocking 178 mm channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus in six impoundments. The study design consisted of equal numbers (two) of control, ceased-stock, and stocked treatments that were sampled one year before and two years after stocking. Relative abundance, growth, size structure, and average weight significantly changed over time based on samples collected with hoop nets. Catch rates decreased at both ceased-stock lakes and increased for one stocked lake, while growth rates changed for at least one ceased-stock and stocked lake. The average weight of channel catfish in the ceased-stock treatment increased by 6% and 25%, whereas weight decreased by 28% and 78% in both stocked lakes. The variability in observed responses between lakes in both ceased-stock and stocked treatments indicates that a one-size-fits-all stocking agenda is impractical, suggesting lake specific and density-dependent mechanisms affect channel catfish population dynamics.

Temperature-dependent body size effects determine population responses to climate warming.

PubMed

Lindmark, Max; Huss, Magnus; Ohlberger, Jan; Gårdmark, Anna

2018-02-01

Current understanding of animal population responses to rising temperatures is based on the assumption that biological rates such as metabolism, which governs fundamental ecological processes, scale independently with body size and temperature, despite empirical evidence for interactive effects. Here, we investigate the consequences of interactive temperature- and size scaling of vital rates for the dynamics of populations experiencing warming using a stage-structured consumer-resource model. We show that interactive scaling alters population and stage-specific responses to rising temperatures, such that warming can induce shifts in population regulation and stage-structure, influence community structure and govern population responses to mortality. Analysing experimental data for 20 fish species, we found size-temperature interactions in intraspecific scaling of metabolic rate to be common. Given the evidence for size-temperature interactions and the ubiquity of size structure in animal populations, we argue that accounting for size-specific temperature effects is pivotal for understanding how warming affects animal populations and communities. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Altitudinal variation in age and body size in Yunnan pond frog (Pelophylax pleuraden).

PubMed

Lou, Shang Ling; Jin, Long; Liu, Yan Hong; Mi, Zhi Ping; Tao, Gang; Tang, Yu Mei; Liao, Wen Bo

2012-08-01

Large-scale systematic patterns of body size are a basic concern of evolutionary biology. Identifying body size variation along altitudinal gradients may help us to understand the evolution of life history of animals. In this study, we investigated altitudinal variation in body size, age and growth rate in Chinese endemic frog, Pelophylax pleuraden. Data sampled from five populations covering an altitudinal span of 1413 to 1935 m in Sichuan province revealed that body size from five populations did not co-vary with altitudes, not following Bergmann's rule. Average adult SVL differed significantly among populations in males, but not in females. For both sexes, average adult age differed significantly among populations. Post-metamorphic growth rate did not co-vary with altitude, and females grew faster than males in all populations. When controlling the effect of age, body size did not differ among populations in both sexes, suggesting that age did not affect variation in body size among populations. For females, there may be other factors, such as the allocation of energy between growth and reproduction, that eliminated the effect of age on body size. To our minds, the major reason of body size variation among populations in male frogs may be related to individual longevity. Our findings also suggest that factors other than age and growth rate may contribute to size differences among populations.

Both population size and patch quality affect local extinctions and colonizations.

PubMed

Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

2010-01-07

Currently, the habitat of many species is fragmented, resulting in small local populations with individuals occasionally dispersing between the remaining habitat patches. In a solitary bee metapopulation, extinction probability was related to both local bee population sizes and pollen resources measured as host plant population size. Patch size, on the other hand, had no additional predictive power. The turnover rate of local bee populations in 63 habitat patches over 4 years was high, with 72 extinction events and 31 colonization events, but the pollen plant population was stable with no extinctions or colonizations. Both pollen resources and bee populations had strong and independent effects on extinction probability, but connectivity was not of importance. Colonizations occurred more frequently within larger host plant populations. For metapopulation survival of the bee, large pollen plant populations are essential, independent of current bee population size.

Burden of cancer mortality and differences attributable to demographic aging and risk factors in Argentina, 1986-2011.

PubMed

Pou, Sonia Alejandra; Tumas, Natalia; Coquet, Julia Becaria; Niclis, Camila; Román, María Dolores; Díaz, María Del Pilar

2017-03-09

The world faces an aging population that implies a large number of people affected with chronic diseases. Argentina has reached an advanced stage of demographic transition and presents a comparatively high rate of cancer mortality within Latin America. The objectives of this study were to examine cancer mortality trends in the province of Córdoba, Argentina, between 1986 and 2011, and to analyze the differences attributable to risk variations and demographic changes. Longitudinal series of age-standardized mortality rates for overall, breast and prostate cancers were modeled by Joinpoint regression to estimate the annual percent change. The Bashir & Estève method was used to split crude mortality rate variation into three components: mortality risk, population age structure and population size. A decreasing cancer age-standardized mortality rates trend was observed (1986-2011 annual percent change: -1.4, 95%CI: -1.6, -1.2 in men; -0.8, 95%CI: -1.0, -0.6 in women), with a significant shift in 1996. There were positive crude mortality rate net changes for overall female cancer, breast and prostate cancers, which were primarily attributable to demographic changes. Inversely, overall male cancer crude mortality rate showed a 9.15% decrease, mostly due to mortality risk. Despite favorable age-standardized mortality rates trends, the influence of population aging reinforces the challenge to control cancer in populations with an increasingly aged demographic structure.

The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data

PubMed Central

Jewett, Ethan M.; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S.

2016-01-01

Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright–Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes. PMID:27550904

Changes in variation at the MHC class II DQA locus during the final demise of the woolly mammoth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pečnerová, Patrícia; Díez-Del-Molino, David; Vartanyan, Sergey; Dalén, Love

2016-05-01

According to the nearly-neutral theory of evolution, the relative strengths of selection and drift shift in favour of drift at small population sizes. Numerous studies have analysed the effect of bottlenecks and small population sizes on genetic diversity in the MHC, which plays a central role in pathogen recognition and immune defense and is thus considered a model example for the study of adaptive evolution. However, to understand changes in genetic diversity at loci under selection, it is necessary to compare the genetic diversity of a population before and after the bottleneck. In this study, we analyse three fragments of the MHC DQA gene in woolly mammoth samples radiocarbon dated to before and after a well-documented bottleneck that took place about ten thousand years ago. Our results indicate a decrease in observed heterozygosity and number of alleles, suggesting that genetic drift had an impact on the variation on MHC. Based on coalescent simulations, we found no evidence of balancing selection maintaining MHC diversity during the Holocene. However, strong trans-species polymorphism among mammoths and elephants points to historical effects of balancing selection on the woolly mammoth lineage.

Geriatrics in Brazil: a big country with big opportunities.

PubMed

Garcez-Leme, Luiz E; Leme, Mariana Deckers; Espino, David V

2005-11-01

Brazil has approximately 180 million inhabitants, of whom 15.2 million are aged 60 and older and 1.9 million are aged 80 and older. By 2025, the Brazilian elderly population is expected to grow to more than 32 million. Brazil has many problems related to its geographic and population size. Great distances between major cities, marked cultural and racial heterogeneity between the various geographic regions, high poverty levels, and decreasing family size all combine to put pressure on the medical and social services that can be made available to the elder population. Less than 500 Brazilian physicians are certified as geriatricians, translating into one geriatrician for every 37,000 elderly Brazilians. Beside 15 geriatric medicine residencies a larger number of fellowship programs exist, and these programs are in high demand, with more than 20 candidates per position, indicating new opportunities for growth in elder care. In addition, geriatric initiatives such as the annual elder vaccination program and the elder statute, recently approved by the Brazilian Congress, indicate that geriatric care in Brazil is entering a new era of growth and development. Although the challenges remain great, there are opportunities for Brazilian geriatrics and gerontology.

Understanding Past Population Dynamics: Bayesian Coalescent-Based Modeling with Covariates

PubMed Central

Gill, Mandev S.; Lemey, Philippe; Bennett, Shannon N.; Biek, Roman; Suchard, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Effective population size characterizes the genetic variability in a population and is a parameter of paramount importance in population genetics and evolutionary biology. Kingman’s coalescent process enables inference of past population dynamics directly from molecular sequence data, and researchers have developed a number of flexible coalescent-based models for Bayesian nonparametric estimation of the effective population size as a function of time. Major goals of demographic reconstruction include identifying driving factors of effective population size, and understanding the association between the effective population size and such factors. Building upon Bayesian nonparametric coalescent-based approaches, we introduce a flexible framework that incorporates time-varying covariates that exploit Gaussian Markov random fields to achieve temporal smoothing of effective population size trajectories. To approximate the posterior distribution, we adapt efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms designed for highly structured Gaussian models. Incorporating covariates into the demographic inference framework enables the modeling of associations between the effective population size and covariates while accounting for uncertainty in population histories. Furthermore, it can lead to more precise estimates of population dynamics. We apply our model to four examples. We reconstruct the demographic history of raccoon rabies in North America and find a significant association with the spatiotemporal spread of the outbreak. Next, we examine the effective population size trajectory of the DENV-4 virus in Puerto Rico along with viral isolate count data and find similar cyclic patterns. We compare the population history of the HIV-1 CRF02_AG clade in Cameroon with HIV incidence and prevalence data and find that the effective population size is more reflective of incidence rate. Finally, we explore the hypothesis that the population dynamics of musk ox during the Late Quaternary period were related to climate change. [Coalescent; effective population size; Gaussian Markov random fields; phylodynamics; phylogenetics; population genetics. PMID:27368344

Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations

PubMed Central

Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

2013-01-01

Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

Genome size differentiates co-occurring populations of the planktonic diatom Ditylum brightwellii (Bacillariophyta)

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Diatoms are one of the most species-rich groups of eukaryotic microbes known. Diatoms are also the only group of eukaryotic micro-algae with a diplontic life history, suggesting that the ancestral diatom switched to a life history dominated by a duplicated genome. A key mechanism of speciation among diatoms could be a propensity for additional stable genome duplications. Across eukaryotic taxa, genome size is directly correlated to cell size and inversely correlated to physiological rates. Differences in relative genome size, cell size, and acclimated growth rates were analyzed in isolates of the diatom Ditylum brightwellii. Ditylum brightwellii consists of two main populations with identical 18s rDNA sequences; one population is distributed globally at temperate latitudes and the second appears to be localized to the Pacific Northwest coast of the USA. These two populations co-occur within the Puget Sound estuary of WA, USA, although their peak abundances differ depending on local conditions. Results All isolates from the more regionally-localized population (population 2) possessed 1.94 ± 0.74 times the amount of DNA, grew more slowly, and were generally larger than isolates from the more globally distributed population (population 1). The ITS1 sequences, cell sizes, and genome sizes of isolates from New Zealand were the same as population 1 isolates from Puget Sound, but their growth rates were within the range of the slower-growing population 2 isolates. Importantly, the observed genome size difference between isolates from the two populations was stable regardless of time in culture or the changes in cell size that accompany the diatom life history. Conclusions The observed two-fold difference in genome size between the D. brightwellii populations suggests that whole genome duplication occurred within cells of population 1 ultimately giving rise to population 2 cells. The apparent regional localization of population 2 is consistent with a recent divergence between the populations, which are likely cryptic species. Genome size variation is known to occur in other diatom genera; we hypothesize that genome duplication may be an active and important mechanism of genetic and physiological diversification and speciation in diatoms. PMID:20044934

Loss of largest and oldest individuals of the Montpellier snake correlates with recent warming in the southeastern Iberian Peninsula

PubMed Central

Feriche, Mónica; Alaminos, Esmeralda; Pleguezuelos, Juan M

2017-01-01

Abstract The effects of climate change on organisms are now being extensively studied in many different taxa. However, the variation in body size, usually shrinkage in response to increasing temperature, has received little attention regarding to reptiles. During past periods of global warming, many organisms shrank in size, and current evidence and experiments manipulating temperature have shown a biomass decrease in some organisms with increasing temperatures. Here we test whether the body size of the Montpellier snake Malpolon monspessulanus from the southeastern Iberian Peninsula is changing and correlated with the increasing temperature in this region during a 39-year period (1976–2014). We measured the snout–vent length (SVL) of vouchers in scientific collections to check for trends in adult body size at the population level in relation with temperature, while controlling for the age of the individuals (estimated by skeletochronology, n =141). Given the great ontogenetic variation in body size of the study species, we categorized age in 3 classes: “young adults” (under 5 years old), “intermediate adults” (from 5 to 7 years old), and “old adults” (from 8 to 14 years old). By means of linear mixed models, we found a negative relationship between SVL of “old adults” and average annual temperature in the region during the lifetime of each individual. Our results indicate that largest and oldest individuals of the Montpellier Snake, that is, males because of strong sexual size dimorphism in this species, disappeared from the study population, and suggest that it occurred in response to rising environmental temperature. PMID:29492021

Sex-ratio, seasonality and long-term variation in maturation and spawning of the brown shrimp Crangon crangon (L.) in the German Bight (North Sea)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siegel, V.; Damm, U.; Neudecker, T.

2008-12-01

Aspects of the reproductive and maturation biology of the brown shrimp Crangon crangon (L.) were studied in various subareas of the German Bight (North Sea). The size-specific sex ratio of C. crangon was examined based on length frequency distribution data. The sex ratio for the smallest size groups at which sex was determined was typically around 0.5, indicating an even ratio between males and females. The proportion of females decreased in the 30-45 mm size range. In length classes larger than 50 mm, the proportion of females constantly increases to 100% at around 60 mm total length. We concluded that sex reversal from male to female may not occur in C. crangon. Size at sexual maturity was determined from the proportion of ovigerous females. Size at maturity ( L 50) was estimated as 55.4 and 62.0 mm total length for spring and winter data, respectively. The seasonal spawning cycle was studied over the period 1958-2005. Between mid February and late June and for size classes larger than 65 mm ovigerous shrimps exceeded 80% and reached up to 100% of the females in the population. This period can be seen as the core spawning season. From early August to early December the proportion of ovigerous shrimps in the female population is very low. Interannual differences in the seasonal process are obvious with a dramatic decline in C. crangon reproductive success in the late 1980s. Various options are discussed for the reasons of the decline and recovery of the reproductive performance.

Loss of largest and oldest individuals of the Montpellier snake correlates with recent warming in the southeastern Iberian Peninsula.

PubMed

López-Calderón, Cosme; Feriche, Mónica; Alaminos, Esmeralda; Pleguezuelos, Juan M

2017-12-01

The effects of climate change on organisms are now being extensively studied in many different taxa. However, the variation in body size, usually shrinkage in response to increasing temperature, has received little attention regarding to reptiles. During past periods of global warming, many organisms shrank in size, and current evidence and experiments manipulating temperature have shown a biomass decrease in some organisms with increasing temperatures. Here we test whether the body size of the Montpellier snake Malpolon monspessulanus from the southeastern Iberian Peninsula is changing and correlated with the increasing temperature in this region during a 39-year period (1976-2014). We measured the snout-vent length (SVL) of vouchers in scientific collections to check for trends in adult body size at the population level in relation with temperature, while controlling for the age of the individuals (estimated by skeletochronology, n  =141). Given the great ontogenetic variation in body size of the study species, we categorized age in 3 classes: "young adults" (under 5 years old), "intermediate adults" (from 5 to 7 years old), and "old adults" (from 8 to 14 years old). By means of linear mixed models, we found a negative relationship between SVL of "old adults" and average annual temperature in the region during the lifetime of each individual. Our results indicate that largest and oldest individuals of the Montpellier Snake, that is, males because of strong sexual size dimorphism in this species, disappeared from the study population, and suggest that it occurred in response to rising environmental temperature.

Investigating energy deposition within cell populations using Monte Carlo simulations.

PubMed

Oliver, Patricia A K; Thomson, Rowan M

2018-06-27

In this work, we develop multicellular models of healthy and cancerous human soft tissues, which are used to investigate energy deposition in subcellular targets, quantify the microdosimetric spread in a population of cells, and determine how these results depend on model details. Monte Carlo (MC) tissue models combining varying levels of detail on different length scales are developed: microscopically-detailed regions of interest (>1500 explicitly-modelled cells) are embedded in bulk tissue phantoms irradiated by photons (20 keV to 1.25 MeV). Specific energy (<i>z</i>; energy imparted per unit mass) is scored in nuclei and cytoplasm compartments using the EGSnrc user-code egs_chamber; specific energy mean, <<i>z</i>>, standard deviation, <i>σ</i>_<i>z</i>, and distribution, <i>f</i>(<i>z</i>,<i>D</i>), are calculated for a variety of macroscopic doses, <i>D</i>. MC-calculated <i>f</i>(<i>z</i>,<i>D</i>) are compared with normal distributions having the same mean and standard deviation. For mGy doses, there is considerable variation in energy deposition (microdosimetric spread) throughout a cell population: <i>e</i>.<i>g</i>., for 30 keV photons irradiating melanoma with 7.5 μm cell radius and 3 μm nuclear radius, <i>σ</i>_<i>z</i>/<<i>z</i>> for nuclear targets is 170%, and the fraction of nuclei receiving no energy deposition, <i>f</i>_<i>z</i>=0, is 0.31 for a dose of 10 mGy. If cobalt-60 photons are considered instead, then <i>σ</i>_<i>z</i>/<<i>z</i>> decreases to 84%, and <i>f</i>_<i>z</i>=0 decreases to 0.036. These results correspond to randomly arranged cells with cell/nucleus sizes randomly sampled from a normal distribution with a standard deviation of 1 μm. If cells are arranged in a hexagonal lattice and cell/nucleus sizes are uniform throughout the population, then <i>σ</i>_<i>z</i>/<<i>z</i>> decreases to 106% and 68% for 30 keV and cobalt-60,respectively; <i>f</i>_<i>z</i>=0 decreases to 0.25 and 0.00094 for 30 keV and cobalt-60, respectively. Thus, specific energy distributions are sensitive to cell/nucleus sizes and their distributions: variations in specific energy deposited over a cell population are underestimated if targets are assumed to be uniform in size compared with more realistic variation in target size. Bulk tissue dose differs from <<i>z</i>> for nuclei (cytoplasms) by up to 21% (12%) across all cell/nucleus sizes, bulk tissues, and incident photon energies, considering a 50 mGy dose level. Overall, results demonstrate the importance of microdosimetric considerations at low doses, and indicate the sensitivity of energy deposition within subcellular targets to incident photon energy, dose level, elemental compositions, and microscopic tissue model. © 2018 Institute of Physics and Engineering in Medicine.

Biological Nitrogen Removal through Nitritation Coupled with Thiosulfate-Driven Denitritation

PubMed Central

Qian, Jin; Zhou, Junmei; Zhang, Zhen; Liu, Rulong; Wang, Qilin

2016-01-01

A novel biological nitrogen removal system based on nitritation coupled with thiosulfate-driven denitritation (Nitritation-TDD) was developed to achieve a high nitrogen removal rate and low sludge production. A nitritation sequential batch reactor (nitritation SBR) and an anoxic up-flow sludge bed (AnUSB) reactor were applied for effective nitritation and denitritation, respectively. Above 75% nitrite was accumulated in the nitritation SBR with an influent ammonia loading rate of 0.43 kg N/d/m3. During Nitritation-TDD operation, particle sizes (d50) of the sludge decreased from 406 to 225 um in nitritation SBR and from 327–183 um in AnUSB reactor. Pyrosequencing tests revealed that ammonium-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) population was stabilized at approximately 7.0% (calculated as population of AOB-related genus divided by the total microbial population) in the nitritation SBR. In contrast, nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB) population decreased from 6.5–0.6% over the same time, indicating the effective nitrite accumulation in the nitritation SBR. Thiobacillus, accounting for 34.2% in the AnUSB reactor, was mainly responsible for nitrogen removal via autotrophic denitritation, using an external source of thiosulfate as electron donor. Also, it was found that free nitrous acid could directly affect the denitritation activity. PMID:27272192

The effects of spaceflight and Insulin-like Growth Factor-1 on the T-cell and macrophage populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pecaut, Michael J.; Simske, Steve J.; Fleshner, Monika; Zimmerman, Robert

1997-01-01

Twelve Sprague-Dawley rats were flown aboard the Space Shuttle Endeavor (STS-77) to study the effects of microgravity-induced stress on the immunoskeletal system. Sixteen rats were used as simultaneous vivarium ground controls during the ten day mission. Osmotic pumps, half of which contained Insulin-like Growth Factor-1 (IGF-1, provided by Chiron), were surgically implanted (subcutaneous) into the rats prior to launch in an attempt to counter any stress effects. On the day of landing, the rats were sacrificed and dissected. Splenocytes and thymocytes were labeled with antibodies against CD4, CD8, CD11b, and TCR for flow cytometry. The percentage of splenic cytotoxic/suppressor (TCR+/CD8+) T-cells increased significantly (by 118%) in spaceflight. There were also decreases in splenic helper (TCR+/CD4+) T-cells and (CD11b+) macrophages (by 33% and 38%, respectively). Together, these results suggest the stress of spaceflight could cause a significant decrease in the ability of rats to mount an immune response. The effects of IGF-1 on cell population distributions were negligible for both flight and vivarium ground controls. However, there were significant differences in spleen and thymus masses suggesting that while IGF-1 did not effect population distributions, the drug may have caused an increase in population size.

Glucocorticoid stress hormones and the effect of predation risk on elk reproduction.

PubMed

Creel, Scott; Winnie, John A; Christianson, David

2009-07-28

Predators affect prey demography through direct predation and through the costs of antipredator behavioral responses, or risk effects. Experiments have shown that risk effects can comprise a substantial proportion of a predator's total effect on prey dynamics, but we know little about their strength in wild populations, or the physiological mechanisms that mediate them. When wolves are present, elk alter their grouping patterns, vigilance, foraging behavior, habitat selection, and diet. These responses are associated with decreased progesterone levels, decreased calf production, and reduced population size [Creel S, Christianson D, Liley S, Winnie JA (2007) Science 315:960]. Two general mechanisms for the effect of predation risk on reproduction have been proposed: the predation stress hypothesis and the predator-sensitive-food hypothesis. Here, we used enzyme immunoassay to measure fecal glucocorticoid metabolite concentrations for 1,205 samples collected from 4 elk populations over 4 winters to test the hypothesis that the effect of predation risk on elk reproduction is mediated by chronic stress. Across populations and years, fecal glucocorticoid concentrations were not related to predator-prey ratios, progesterone concentrations or calf-cow ratios. Overall, the effect of wolf presence on elk reproduction is better explained by changes in foraging patterns that carry nutritional costs than by changes in glucocorticoid concentrations.

Glucocorticoid stress hormones and the effect of predation risk on elk reproduction

PubMed Central

Creel, Scott; Winnie, John A.; Christianson, David

2009-01-01

Predators affect prey demography through direct predation and through the costs of antipredator behavioral responses, or risk effects. Experiments have shown that risk effects can comprise a substantial proportion of a predator's total effect on prey dynamics, but we know little about their strength in wild populations, or the physiological mechanisms that mediate them. When wolves are present, elk alter their grouping patterns, vigilance, foraging behavior, habitat selection, and diet. These responses are associated with decreased progesterone levels, decreased calf production, and reduced population size [Creel S, Christianson D, Liley S, Winnie JA (2007) Science 315:960]. Two general mechanisms for the effect of predation risk on reproduction have been proposed: the predation stress hypothesis and the predator-sensitive-food hypothesis. Here, we used enzyme immunoassay to measure fecal glucocorticoid metabolite concentrations for 1,205 samples collected from 4 elk populations over 4 winters to test the hypothesis that the effect of predation risk on elk reproduction is mediated by chronic stress. Across populations and years, fecal glucocorticoid concentrations were not related to predator-prey ratios, progesterone concentrations or calf-cow ratios. Overall, the effect of wolf presence on elk reproduction is better explained by changes in foraging patterns that carry nutritional costs than by changes in glucocorticoid concentrations. PMID:19617549

Adaptively resizing populations: Algorithm, analysis, and first results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Robert E.; Smuda, Ellen

1993-01-01

Deciding on an appropriate population size for a given Genetic Algorithm (GA) application can often be critical to the algorithm's success. Too small, and the GA can fall victim to sampling error, affecting the efficacy of its search. Too large, and the GA wastes computational resources. Although advice exists for sizing GA populations, much of this advice involves theoretical aspects that are not accessible to the novice user. An algorithm for adaptively resizing GA populations is suggested. This algorithm is based on recent theoretical developments that relate population size to schema fitness variance. The suggested algorithm is developed theoretically, and simulated with expected value equations. The algorithm is then tested on a problem where population sizing can mislead the GA. The work presented suggests that the population sizing algorithm may be a viable way to eliminate the population sizing decision from the application of GA's.

Unpredictable food supply modifies costs of reproduction and hampers individual optimization.

PubMed

Török, János; Hegyi, Gergely; Tóth, László; Könczey, Réka

2004-11-01

Investment into the current reproductive attempt is thought to be at the expense of survival and/or future reproduction. Individuals are therefore expected to adjust their decisions to their physiological state and predictable aspects of environmental quality. The main predictions of the individual optimization hypothesis for bird clutch sizes are: (1) an increase in the number of recruits with an increasing number of eggs in natural broods, with no corresponding impairment of parental survival or future reproduction, and (2) a decrease in the fitness of parents in response to both negative and positive brood size manipulation, as a result of a low number of recruits, poor future reproduction of parents, or both. We analysed environmental influences on costs and optimization of reproduction on 6 years of natural and experimentally manipulated broods in a Central European population of the collared flycatcher. Based on dramatic differences in caterpillar availability, we classified breeding seasons as average and rich food years. The categorization was substantiated by the majority of present and future fitness components of adults and offspring. Neither observational nor experimental data supported the individual optimization hypothesis, in contrast to a Scandinavian population of the species. The quality of fledglings deteriorated, and the number of recruits did not increase with natural clutch size. Manipulation revealed significant costs of reproduction to female parents in terms of future reproductive potential. However, the influence of manipulation on recruitment was linear, with no significant polynomial effect. The number of recruits increased with manipulation in rich food years and tended to decrease in average years, so control broods did not recruit more young than manipulated broods in any of the year types. This indicates that females did not optimize their clutch size, and that they generally laid fewer eggs than optimal in rich food years. Mean yearly clutch size did not follow food availability, which suggests that females cannot predict food supply of the brood-rearing period at the beginning of the season. This lack of information on future food conditions seems to prevent them from accurately estimating their optimal clutch size for each season. Our results suggest that individual optimization may not be a general pattern even within a species, and alternative mechanisms are needed to explain clutch size variation.

Threshold-dependent sample sizes for selenium assessment with stream fish tissue

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hitt, Nathaniel P.; Smith, David R.

2015-01-01

Natural resource managers are developing assessments of selenium (Se) contamination in freshwater ecosystems based on fish tissue concentrations. We evaluated the effects of sample size (i.e., number of fish per site) on the probability of correctly detecting mean whole-body Se values above a range of potential management thresholds. We modeled Se concentrations as gamma distributions with shape and scale parameters fitting an empirical mean-to-variance relationship in data from southwestern West Virginia, USA (63 collections, 382 individuals). We used parametric bootstrapping techniques to calculate statistical power as the probability of detecting true mean concentrations up to 3 mg Se/kg above management thresholds ranging from 4 to 8 mg Se/kg. Sample sizes required to achieve 80% power varied as a function of management thresholds and Type I error tolerance (α). Higher thresholds required more samples than lower thresholds because populations were more heterogeneous at higher mean Se levels. For instance, to assess a management threshold of 4 mg Se/kg, a sample of eight fish could detect an increase of approximately 1 mg Se/kg with 80% power (given α = 0.05), but this sample size would be unable to detect such an increase from a management threshold of 8 mg Se/kg with more than a coin-flip probability. Increasing α decreased sample size requirements to detect above-threshold mean Se concentrations with 80% power. For instance, at an α-level of 0.05, an 8-fish sample could detect an increase of approximately 2 units above a threshold of 8 mg Se/kg with 80% power, but when α was relaxed to 0.2, this sample size was more sensitive to increasing mean Se concentrations, allowing detection of an increase of approximately 1.2 units with equivalent power. Combining individuals into 2- and 4-fish composite samples for laboratory analysis did not decrease power because the reduced number of laboratory samples was compensated for by increased precision of composites for estimating mean conditions. However, low sample sizes (<5 fish) did not achieve 80% power to detect near-threshold values (i.e., <1 mg Se/kg) under any scenario we evaluated. This analysis can assist the sampling design and interpretation of Se assessments from fish tissue by accounting for natural variation in stream fish populations.

Adapting to an invasive species: toxic cane toads induce morphological change in Australian snakes.

PubMed

Phillips, Ben L; Shine, Richard

2004-12-07

The arrival of invasive species can devastate natural ecosystems, but the long-term effects of invasion are less clear. If native organisms can adapt to the presence of the invader, the severity of impact will decline with time. In Australia, invasive cane toads (Bufo marinus) are highly toxic to most snakes that attempt to eat them. Because snakes are gape-limited predators with strong negative allometry for head size, maximum relative prey mass (and thus, the probability of eating a toad large enough to be fatal) decreases with an increase in snake body size. Thus, the arrival of toads should exert selection on snake morphology, favoring an increase in mean body size and a decrease in relative head size. We tested these predictions with data from specimens of four species of Australian snakes, collected over >80 years. Geographic information system layers provided data on the duration of toad exposure for each snake population, as well as environmental variables (latitude, precipitation, and temperature). As predicted, two toad-vulnerable species (Pseudechis porphyriacus and Dendrelaphis punctulatus) showed a steady reduction in gape size and a steady increase in body length with time since exposure to toads. In contrast, two species at low risk from toads (Hemiaspis signata and Tropidonophis mairii) showed no consistent change in these morphological traits as a function of the duration of toad exposure. These results provide strong evidence of adaptive changes in native predators as a result of the invasion of toxic prey.

Deaths due to traumatic brain injury in Austria between 1980 and 2012.

PubMed

Mauritz, Walter; Brazinova, Alexandra; Majdan, Marek; Rehorcikova, Veronika; Leitgeb, Johannes

2014-01-01

To investigate changes in TBI mortality in Austria during 1980-2012 and to identify causes for these changes. Statistik Austria provided data (from death certificates) on all TBI deaths from January 1980-December 2012. Data included year/month of death, age, sex, residency of the cases and mechanism of accident. Data regarding the size of the age groups was obtained from Statistik Austria. Mortality rates (MR; deaths/10(5) population/year) were calculated for male vs. female patients and for different age groups. Changes in mechanisms of TBI were evaluated. The MR decreased from 28.1 to 11.8 deaths/10(5) population/year. Traffic-related TBI deaths decreased from 62% to 9%. This caused a significant decrease in TBI deaths in younger age groups. Fall-related TBI deaths (mostly geriatric cases) remained unchanged. Falls became the leading cause; its rate increased from 22% to 64% of all TBI deaths. Thus, the mean age of fatal TBI cases increased by 20 years and the rate of cases aged <60 years decreased from 71% to 28%. Another important cause was suicide by firearms; its rate increased from 10% to 23% of all TBI deaths. These findings warrant better prevention of falls in the elderly and of suicides.

Genetic differentiation in the Mexican endemic Rufous-backed Robin, Turdus rufopalliatus (Passeriformes: Turdidae).

PubMed

Montaño-Rendón, Mauricio; Sánchez-González, Luis A; Hernández-Alonso, Germán; Navarro-Sigüenza, Adolfo G

2015-10-30

The Rufous-backed Robin (Turdus rufopalliatus) is endemic to deciduous and semideciduous tropical forests of western Mexico. Of the currently recognized subspecies, T. r. graysoni, from the Tres Marías Islands and nearby coastal Nayarit, has been considered a separate species; however, this treatment has been challenged due to an apparent contact zone on the mainland, although no hybrids have ever been recorded. Here, we use mitochondrial DNA sequences from individuals sampled across the species' range to assess their phylogeographic relationships. We found reciprocal monophyly between Tres Marías Islands and mainland populations, which share no haplotypes between them. Evolutionary divergence detected within T. rufopalliatus suggests that mainland and island populations have been isolated from each other, and divergence decreases if insular populations are excluded. Demographic parameters suggest that populations are in the process of a rapid expansion from ancestral populations with a lower population size. These results are consistent with morphometric and plumage differences that have been used to recognize the Tres Marías Islands populations from the mainland ones, thus suggesting species status of the island form.

Limited evolutionary rescue of locally adapted populations facing climate change.

PubMed

Schiffers, Katja; Bourne, Elizabeth C; Lavergne, Sébastien; Thuiller, Wilfried; Travis, Justin M J

2013-01-19

Dispersal is a key determinant of a population's evolutionary potential. It facilitates the propagation of beneficial alleles throughout the distributional range of spatially outspread populations and increases the speed of adaptation. However, when habitat is heterogeneous and individuals are locally adapted, dispersal may, at the same time, reduce fitness through increasing maladaptation. Here, we use a spatially explicit, allelic simulation model to quantify how these equivocal effects of dispersal affect a population's evolutionary response to changing climate. Individuals carry a diploid set of chromosomes, with alleles coding for adaptation to non-climatic environmental conditions and climatic conditions, respectively. Our model results demonstrate that the interplay between gene flow and habitat heterogeneity may decrease effective dispersal and population size to such an extent that substantially reduces the likelihood of evolutionary rescue. Importantly, even when evolutionary rescue saves a population from extinction, its spatial range following climate change may be strongly narrowed, that is, the rescue is only partial. These findings emphasize that neglecting the impact of non-climatic, local adaptation might lead to a considerable overestimation of a population's evolvability under rapid environmental change.

The Impact of Population Demography and Selection on the Genetic Architecture of Complex Traits

PubMed Central

Lohmueller, Kirk E.

2014-01-01

Population genetic studies have found evidence for dramatic population growth in recent human history. It is unclear how this recent population growth, combined with the effects of negative natural selection, has affected patterns of deleterious variation, as well as the number, frequency, and effect sizes of mutations that contribute risk to complex traits. Because researchers are performing exome sequencing studies aimed at uncovering the role of low-frequency variants in the risk of complex traits, this topic is of critical importance. Here I use simulations under population genetic models where a proportion of the heritability of the trait is accounted for by mutations in a subset of the exome. I show that recent population growth increases the proportion of nonsynonymous variants segregating in the population, but does not affect the genetic load relative to a population that did not expand. Under a model where a mutation's effect on a trait is correlated with its effect on fitness, rare variants explain a greater portion of the additive genetic variance of the trait in a population that has recently expanded than in a population that did not recently expand. Further, when using a single-marker test, for a given false-positive rate and sample size, recent population growth decreases the expected number of significant associations with the trait relative to the number detected in a population that did not expand. However, in a model where there is no correlation between a mutation's effect on fitness and the effect on the trait, common variants account for much of the additive genetic variance, regardless of demography. Moreover, here demography does not affect the number of significant associations detected. These findings suggest recent population history may be an important factor influencing the power of association tests and in accounting for the missing heritability of certain complex traits. PMID:24875776

Ancient fluvial processes in the equatorial highlands of Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Craddock, Robert A.; Maxwell, Ted A.

1991-01-01

Martian highland craters typically lack ejecta deposits, have no noticeable rim, and are flat floored. In addition, crater size frequency distribution curves show that highland craters have depleted populations less than 20 km in diameter. A variety of processes have been suggested to explain these observations including deposition of aeolian or volcanic materials up to the crater rim crests, thermal creep, terrain softening, and mass wasting. However, none of these processes adequately explains both the crater morphology and population distribution. In order to explain both the Martian highland crater morphology and population distribution, a fluvial process is proposed which is capable of removing the loose crater rim material. The resulting effect is to decrease the crater diameter, thereby causing the population curves to bendover. The eroded material is redistributed, burying or partially burying smaller diameter craters before complete erosion. This material may also be deposited into local topographic lows, creating the depositional basins observed. A fluvial process explains both sets of observations: crater morphology and crater population distribution curves.

Demographic Changes in Germany up to 2060 - Consequences for Blood Donation.

PubMed

Ehling, Manfred; Pötzsch, Olga

2010-06-01

This paper outlines the results of a most recent model calculation regarding the structure and development of Germany's population by 2060 with the aim to provide basic demographic data for the future provision of blood components to the population. Firstly, the paper describes the assumptions on fertility, life expectancy and Germany's balance of immigration and emigration which formed the basis for the projection. The following part discusses the results, quantifies future changes in the size and age structure of Germany's population, and illustrates the effects of demographic trends which can be identified from today's point of view. The number of potential blood donors will decline in absolute and relative terms (related to the total population and the age group of 'non-donors') in the future. This holds true for both the age bracket of 18 to 68 years and the alternatively chosen age group of 17 to 70 years. Depending on the variant, the population of blood donation age will decrease by one quarter to one third until 2060.

Selection in a subdivided population with local extinction and recolonization.

PubMed Central

Cherry, Joshua L

2003-01-01

In a subdivided population, local extinction and subsequent recolonization affect the fate of alleles. Of particular interest is the interaction of this force with natural selection. The effect of selection can be weakened by this additional source of stochastic change in allele frequency. The behavior of a selected allele in such a population is shown to be equivalent to that of an allele with a different selection coefficient in an unstructured population with a different size. This equivalence allows use of established results for panmictic populations to predict such quantities as fixation probabilities and mean times to fixation. The magnitude of the quantity N(e)s(e), which determines fixation probability, is decreased by extinction and recolonization. Thus deleterious alleles are more likely to fix, and advantageous alleles less likely to do so, in the presence of extinction and recolonization. Computer simulations confirm that the theoretical predictions of both fixation probabilities and mean times to fixation are good approximations. PMID:12807797

Matrix models for size-structured populations: unrealistic fast growth or simply diffusion?

PubMed

Picard, Nicolas; Liang, Jingjing

2014-01-01

Matrix population models are widely used to study population dynamics but have been criticized because their outputs are sensitive to the dimension of the matrix (or, equivalently, to the class width). This sensitivity is concerning for the population growth rate (λ) because this is an intrinsic characteristic of the population that should not depend on the model specification. It has been suggested that the sensitivity of λ to matrix dimension was linked to the existence of fast pathways (i.e. the fraction of individuals that systematically move up a class), whose proportion increases when class width increases. We showed that for matrix population models with growth transition only from class i to class i + 1, λ was independent of the class width when the mortality and the recruitment rates were constant, irrespective of the growth rate. We also showed that if there were indeed fast pathways, there were also in about the same proportion slow pathways (i.e. the fraction of individuals that systematically remained in the same class), and that they jointly act as a diffusion process (where diffusion here is the movement in size of an individual whose size increments are random according to a normal distribution with mean zero). For 53 tree species from a tropical rain forest in the Central African Republic, the diffusion resulting from common matrix dimensions was much stronger than would be realistic. Yet, the sensitivity of λ to matrix dimension for a class width in the range 1-10 cm was small, much smaller than the sampling uncertainty on the value of λ. Moreover, λ could either increase or decrease when class width increased depending on the species. Overall, even if the class width should be kept small enough to limit diffusion, it had little impact on the estimate of λ for tree species.

Examining the reproducibility of stable isotope ratios in the marine bivalve, Astarte borealis, from populations in the White Sea, Russia: implications for biological consequences of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNabb, Justin; Surge, Donna

2015-04-01

Shells of the marine bivalve, Astarte, are uniquely suited to investigate links between environmental/climate change and biological consequences because of their change in size and biogeographic distribution through time. For example, are there corresponding changes in lifespan and biogeographic distribution depending on warm vs. cold climate states? Does warm vs. cold climate state result in longer or shorter lifespans? Early studies of Astarte have documented a decrease in shell size through geologic time. Modern specimens are much smaller than those from the mid Pliocene at similar latitudes. Astarte had a wide latitudinal and cosmopolitan distribution in the western North Atlantic during the Oligocene to Pliocene. During the early Pleistocene, most of the warm-water species became extinct, and today, their biogeographic distribution is mostly restricted to the northern Pacific, Atlantic, and Arctic Oceans. To answer questions linking biological consequences and climate change, we must first decipher ontogenetic changes in shell growth of modern specimens. Preliminary data using isotope sclerochronology identified slowed shell growth from late summer to winter in modern specimens from the White Sea, Russia, possibly triggered by increasing freshwater input and decreasing temperatures. Here, we present new data examining the reproducibility of isotopic time series and season of slowed growth among modern individuals collected at the same time from the same population.

Effects of fungicides and biofungicides on population density and community structure of soil oribatid mites.

PubMed

Al-Assiuty, Abdel-Naieem I M; Khalil, Mohamed A; Ismail, Abdel-Wahab A; van Straalen, Nico M; Ageba, Mohamed F

2014-01-01

To compare the side-effects of chemical versus biofungicides on non-target organisms in agricultural soil, a study of population structure, spatial distribution and fecundity of oribatid mites, a diverse and species-rich group of microarthropods indicative of decomposer activity in soil was done. Plots laid out in agricultural fields of a research station in Egypt, were cultivated with cucumber and treated with two chemical fungicides: Ridomil Plus 50% wp (active ingredients=metalaxyl and copper oxychloride) and Dithane M-45 (active ingredient=mancozeb), and two biofungicides: Plant Guard (containing the antagonistic fungus Trichoderma harzianum) and Polyversum (containing the fungi-parasitic oomycete Pythium oligandrum). All treatments were done using both low-volume and high-volume spraying techniques to check whether any effects were dependent on the method of application. Oribatid mite communities were assessed from soil core samples collected during the growing season. Total abundance of oribatids was not different across the plots, but some species decreased in number, while one species increased. Species diversity and community equitability decreased with the application of chemical and biofungicides especially when using high-volume spraying. In control plots most oribatid species showed a significant degree of aggregation, which tended to decrease under fungicide treatment. Ridomil Plus, Plant Guard and Polyversum had a negative effect on the gravid/ungravid ratio of some species. Egg number averaged over the whole adult population was not directly related to the application of chemical and biofungicides but it showed a species-specific relationship with population density. In general biofungicides had a smaller effect on population size and community structure of oribatid mite species than chemical fungicides. The results indicate that biofungicides may be the preferred option when aiming to prevent side-effects on sensitive groups among the species-rich soil detritivore community. © 2013.

Association of primary care factors with hospital admissions for epilepsy in England, 2004-2010: National observational study.

PubMed

Calderón-Larrañaga, Amaia; Soljak, Michael; Cowling, Thomas E; Gaitatzis, Athanasios; Majeed, Azeem

2014-09-01

There has been little research on the accessibility and quality of primary care services for epilepsy and emergency hospital admissions for epilepsy. We examined time trends in admissions for epilepsy in England between 2004-2005 and 2010, and the association of admission rates with population and primary care factors. The units of analysis were the registered populations of 8622 general practices. We used negative binomial regression to model indicators from the Quality and Outcomes Framework, the UK's primary care pay for performance scheme, to measure the accessibility and quality of care for epilepsy, and supply of general practitioners, after adjustment for population factors. The mean indirectly standardised admission rate decreased from 122.9 to 102.6 (-16.5%; P<0.001) over the study period, while the mean percentage of patients seizure free increased from 65.3% to 74.9% (P<0.001). In the multivariable analysis, a one unit increase in the percentage of seizure free adult patients on epilepsy drugs predicted a 0.20% decrease (IRR=0.9980; 95% CI: 0.9974-0.9986) in admission rate. The percentage of patients who were able to book a GP appointment over two days ahead predicted a 0.12% decrease (IRR=0.9988; 95% CI: 0.9982-0.9994). The deprivation score of practice populations (IRR=1.0179; P<0.001) and general practitioner supply (IRR=1.0022; P<0.001) were both positively associated with admission rates. Patient access to primary care appointments and percentage of patients who have been recorded as seizure free for 12 months were associated with lower admission rates. However the effect sizes are small relative to that of population deprivation. Copyright © 2014 British Epilepsy Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transmission Bottleneck Size Estimation from Pathogen Deep-Sequencing Data, with an Application to Human Influenza A Virus.

PubMed

Sobel Leonard, Ashley; Weissman, Daniel B; Greenbaum, Benjamin; Ghedin, Elodie; Koelle, Katia

2017-07-15

The bottleneck governing infectious disease transmission describes the size of the pathogen population transferred from the donor to the recipient host. Accurate quantification of the bottleneck size is particularly important for rapidly evolving pathogens such as influenza virus, as narrow bottlenecks reduce the amount of transferred viral genetic diversity and, thus, may decrease the rate of viral adaptation. Previous studies have estimated bottleneck sizes governing viral transmission by using statistical analyses of variants identified in pathogen sequencing data. These analyses, however, did not account for variant calling thresholds and stochastic viral replication dynamics within recipient hosts. Because these factors can skew bottleneck size estimates, we introduce a new method for inferring bottleneck sizes that accounts for these factors. Through the use of a simulated data set, we first show that our method, based on beta-binomial sampling, accurately recovers transmission bottleneck sizes, whereas other methods fail to do so. We then apply our method to a data set of influenza A virus (IAV) infections for which viral deep-sequencing data from transmission pairs are available. We find that the IAV transmission bottleneck size estimates in this study are highly variable across transmission pairs, while the mean bottleneck size of 196 virions is consistent with a previous estimate for this data set. Furthermore, regression analysis shows a positive association between estimated bottleneck size and donor infection severity, as measured by temperature. These results support findings from experimental transmission studies showing that bottleneck sizes across transmission events can be variable and influenced in part by epidemiological factors. IMPORTANCE The transmission bottleneck size describes the size of the pathogen population transferred from the donor to the recipient host and may affect the rate of pathogen adaptation within host populations. Recent advances in sequencing technology have enabled bottleneck size estimation from pathogen genetic data, although there is not yet a consistency in the statistical methods used. Here, we introduce a new approach to infer the bottleneck size that accounts for variant identification protocols and noise during pathogen replication. We show that failing to account for these factors leads to an underestimation of bottleneck sizes. We apply this method to an existing data set of human influenza virus infections, showing that transmission is governed by a loose, but highly variable, transmission bottleneck whose size is positively associated with the severity of infection of the donor. Beyond advancing our understanding of influenza virus transmission, we hope that this work will provide a standardized statistical approach for bottleneck size estimation for viral pathogens. Copyright © 2017 Sobel Leonard et al.

[Changes in factors associated with the nutrition transition in Mexico].

PubMed

Ortiz-Hernández, Luis; Delgado-Sánchez, Guadalupe; Hernández-Briones, Ana

2006-01-01

To describe the demographic and socioeconomic changes, food availability and food expense in Mexico during 1980-2000. From official statistics (Population Census, FAO Food Balance Sheets, Family Income and Expense National Survey and Economic Census) we estimated the evolution of population distribution according to locality size, occupational structure, woman participation in the wage-earning labor force, minimum wage, availability of food establishments and expense in food. The percentage of the population that lives in urban areas has increased, they are employed in the tertiary sector, womens participation in the labor market has increased but real minimum wages have decreased. Vegetables, oleaginous, oils, fish and seafood availability have decreased whereas animal fat, vegetables, fruits, softdrinks, meats and egg availability have increased. The number of inexpensive restaurants (cocinas económicas and fondas) has also increased. Food expenses have decreased while amount of money spent in food consumed away from home has increased. In Mexico, the growth in urban areas and the tertiary job sector shows a parallel growth in the availability of high fat and protein food, a greater diet variety and more opportunities to consume food not prepared in the home. On the other hand, the sale of equipment and places designed for recreational physical activity have increased. By reducing employment in the primary sector it is foreseeable that labor intensive physical activity will become less important overtime.

Estimating population sizes for elusive animals: the forest elephants of Kakum National Park, Ghana.

PubMed

Eggert, L S; Eggert, J A; Woodruff, D S

2003-06-01

African forest elephants are difficult to observe in the dense vegetation, and previous studies have relied upon indirect methods to estimate population sizes. Using multilocus genotyping of noninvasively collected samples, we performed a genetic survey of the forest elephant population at Kakum National Park, Ghana. We estimated population size, sex ratio and genetic variability from our data, then combined this information with field observations to divide the population into age groups. Our population size estimate was very close to that obtained using dung counts, the most commonly used indirect method of estimating the population sizes of forest elephant populations. As their habitat is fragmented by expanding human populations, management will be increasingly important to the persistence of forest elephant populations. The data that can be obtained from noninvasively collected samples will help managers plan for the conservation of this keystone species.

Consequences of the size structure of fish populations for their effects on a generalist avian predator.

PubMed

Kloskowski, Janusz

2011-06-01

Size-structured interspecific interactions can shift between predation and competition, depending on ontogenetic changes in size relationships. I examined the effects of common carp (Cyprinus carpio), an omnivorous fish, on the reproductive success of the red-necked grebe (Podiceps grisegena), an avian gape-limited predator, along a fish size gradient created by stocking distinct age-cohorts in seminatural ponds. Young-of-the-year (0+) carp were an essential food source for young grebes. Only adult birds were able to consume 1-year-old (1+) fish, while 2-year-old (2+) fish attained a size refuge from grebes. Amphibian larvae were the principal alternative prey to fish, followed by macroinvertebrates, but the abundance of both dramatically decreased along the carp size gradient. Fledging success was 2.8 times greater in ponds with 0+ versus 1+ carp; in ponds with 1+ carp, chicks received on average 2.6-3 times less prey biomass from their parents, and over 1/3 of broods suffered total failure. Breeding birds avoided settling on 2+ ponds. These results show that changes in prey fish size structure can account for shifts from positive trophic effects on the avian predator to a negative impact on the predator's alternative resources. However, competition did not fully explain the decrease in grebe food resources in the presence of large fish, as carp and grebes overlapped little in diet. In experimental cages, 1+ carp totally eliminated young larvae of amphibians palatable to fish. In field conditions, breeding adults of palatable taxa avoided ponds with 1+ and older carp. Non-trophic interactions such as habitat selection by amphibians or macroinvertebrates to avoid large fish may provide an indirect mechanism strengthening the adverse bottom-up effects of fish on birds.

Determination of the optimal sample size for a clinical trial accounting for the population size.

PubMed

Stallard, Nigel; Miller, Frank; Day, Simon; Hee, Siew Wan; Madan, Jason; Zohar, Sarah; Posch, Martin

2017-07-01

The problem of choosing a sample size for a clinical trial is a very common one. In some settings, such as rare diseases or other small populations, the large sample sizes usually associated with the standard frequentist approach may be infeasible, suggesting that the sample size chosen should reflect the size of the population under consideration. Incorporation of the population size is possible in a decision-theoretic approach either explicitly by assuming that the population size is fixed and known, or implicitly through geometric discounting of the gain from future patients reflecting the expected population size. This paper develops such approaches. Building on previous work, an asymptotic expression is derived for the sample size for single and two-arm clinical trials in the general case of a clinical trial with a primary endpoint with a distribution of one parameter exponential family form that optimizes a utility function that quantifies the cost and gain per patient as a continuous function of this parameter. It is shown that as the size of the population, N, or expected size, N∗ in the case of geometric discounting, becomes large, the optimal trial size is O(N1/2) or O(N∗1/2). The sample size obtained from the asymptotic expression is also compared with the exact optimal sample size in examples with responses with Bernoulli and Poisson distributions, showing that the asymptotic approximations can also be reasonable in relatively small sample sizes. © 2016 The Author. Biometrical Journal published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Phenotypic plasticity in clutch size regulation among populations of a potential invasive fruit fly from environments that vary in host heterogeneity and isolation.

PubMed

Aluja, M; Birke, A; Díaz-Fleischer, F; Rull, J

2018-05-21

Phenotypic plasticity is thought to evolve in response to environmental unpredictability and can shield genotypes from selection. However, selection can also act on plastic traits. Egg-laying behaviour, including clutch size regulation, is a plastic behavioural trait among tephritid fruit flies. We compared plasticity in clutch size regulation among females of Anastrepha ludens populations stemming from environments that differed in the degree of predictability in egg-laying opportunities. Clutch size regulation in response to hosts of different sizes was compared among flies from (a) a wild, highly isolated population, (b) a wild population that switches seasonally from a small wild host fruit that varies greatly in abundance to an abundant large-sized commercial host, and (c) a laboratory population. Flies from all three populations adjusted clutch number and size according to host size. However, flies from the heterogeneous wild environment were more plastic in adjusting clutch size than flies from agricultural settings that also laid fewer eggs; yet both populations were more plastic in adjusting clutch size in line with host size when compared with laboratory females. When wild and orchard females encountered the largest host, clutch size was extremely variable and egg regulation did not follow the same trend. Heterogeneity in host availability in space and time appears to be as important as seasonal variation in host size in maintaining plastic clutch size regulation behaviour. In stable environments, there was a clear reduction in the plasticity of these traits.

Density dependence in a recovering osprey population: demographic and behavioural processes.

PubMed

Bretagnolle, V; Mougeot, F; Thibault, J-C

2008-09-01

1. Understanding how density-dependent and independent processes influence demographic parameters, and hence regulate population size, is fundamental within population ecology. We investigated density dependence in growth rate and fecundity in a recovering population of a semicolonial raptor, the osprey Pandion haliaetus [Linnaeus, 1758], using 31 years of count and demographic data in Corsica. 2. The study population increased from three pairs in 1974 to an average of 22 pairs in the late 1990s, with two distinct phases during the recovery (increase followed by stability) and contrasted trends in breeding parameters in each phase. 3. We show density dependence in population growth rate in the second phase, indicating that the stabilized population was regulated. We also show density dependence in productivity (fledging success between years and hatching success within years). 4. Using long-term data on behavioural interactions at nest sites, and on diet and fish provisioning rate, we evaluated two possible mechanisms of density dependence in productivity, food depletion and behavioural interference. 5. As density increased, both provisioning rate and the size of prey increased, contrary to predictions of a food-depletion mechanism. In the time series, a reduction in fledging success coincided with an increase in the number of non-breeders. Hatching success decreased with increasing local density and frequency of interactions with conspecifics, suggesting that behavioural interference was influencing hatching success. 6. Our study shows that, taking into account the role of non-breeders, in particular in species or populations where there are many floaters and where competition for nest sites is intense, can improve our understanding of density-dependent processes and help conservation actions.

Understanding how lake populations of arctic char are structured and function with special consideration of the potential effects of climate change: a multi-faceted approach.

PubMed

Budy, Phaedra; Luecke, Chris

2014-09-01

Size dimorphism in fish populations, both its causes and consequences, has been an area of considerable focus; however, uncertainty remains whether size dimorphism is dynamic or stabilizing and about the role of exogenous factors. Here, we explored patterns among empirical vital rates, population structure, abundance and trend, and predicted the effects of climate change on populations of arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) in two lakes. Both populations cycle dramatically between dominance by small (≤300 mm) and large (>300 mm) char. Apparent survival (Φ) and specific growth rates (SGR) were relatively high (40-96%; SGR range 0.03-1.5%) and comparable to those of conspecifics at lower latitudes. Climate change scenarios mimicked observed patterns of warming and resulted in temperatures closer to optimal for char growth (15.15 °C) and a longer growing season. An increase in consumption rates (28-34%) under climate change scenarios led to much greater growth rates (23-34%). Higher growth rates predicted under climate change resulted in an even greater predicted amplitude of cycles in population structure as well as an increase in reproductive output (Ro) and decrease in generation time (Go). Collectively, these results indicate arctic char populations (not just individuals) are extremely sensitive to small changes in the number of ice-free days. We hypothesize years with a longer growing season, predicted to occur more often under climate change, produce elevated growth rates of small char and act in a manner similar to a "resource pulse," allowing a sub-set of small char to "break through," thus setting the cycle in population structure.

Understanding how lake populations of arctic char are structured and function with special consideration of the potential effects of climate change: A multi-faceted approach.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Budy, Phaedra; Luecke, Chris

2014-01-01

Size dimorphism in fish populations, both its causes and consequences, has been an area of considerable focus; however, uncertainty remains whether size dimorphism is dynamic or stabilizing and about the role of exogenous factors. Here, we explored patterns among empirical vital rates, population structure, abundance and trend, and predicted the effects of climate change on populations of arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus) in two lakes. Both populations cycle dramatically between dominance by small (≤300 mm) and large (>300 mm) char. Apparent survival (Φ) and specific growth rates (SGR) were relatively high (40–96 %; SGR range 0.03–1.5 %) and comparable to those of conspecifics at lower latitudes. Climate change scenarios mimicked observed patterns of warming and resulted in temperatures closer to optimal for char growth (15.15 °C) and a longer growing season. An increase in consumption rates (28–34 %) under climate change scenarios led to much greater growth rates (23–34 %). Higher growth rates predicted under climate change resulted in an even greater predicted amplitude of cycles in population structure as well as an increase in reproductive output (Ro) and decrease in generation time (Go). Collectively, these results indicate arctic char populations (not just individuals) are extremely sensitive to small changes in the number of ice-free days. We hypothesize years with a longer growing season, predicted to occur more often under climate change, produce elevated growth rates of small char and act in a manner similar to a “resource pulse,” allowing a sub-set of small char to “break through,” thus setting the cycle in population structure.

A Proposed Approach for Joint Modeling of the Longitudinal and Time-To-Event Data in Heterogeneous Populations: An Application to HIV/AIDS's Disease.

PubMed

Roustaei, Narges; Ayatollahi, Seyyed Mohammad Taghi; Zare, Najaf

2018-01-01

In recent years, the joint models have been widely used for modeling the longitudinal and time-to-event data simultaneously. In this study, we proposed an approach (PA) to study the longitudinal and survival outcomes simultaneously in heterogeneous populations. PA relaxes the assumption of conditional independence (CI). We also compared PA with joint latent class model (JLCM) and separate approach (SA) for various sample sizes (150, 300, and 600) and different association parameters (0, 0.2, and 0.5). The average bias of parameters estimation (AB-PE), average SE of parameters estimation (ASE-PE), and coverage probability of the 95% confidence interval (CP) among the three approaches were compared. In most cases, when the sample sizes increased, AB-PE and ASE-PE decreased for the three approaches, and CP got closer to the nominal level of 0.95. When there was a considerable association, PA in comparison with SA and JLCM performed better in the sense that PA had the smallest AB-PE and ASE-PE for the longitudinal submodel among the three approaches for the small and moderate sample sizes. Moreover, JLCM was desirable for the none-association and the large sample size. Finally, the evaluated approaches were applied on a real HIV/AIDS dataset for validation, and the results were compared.

Optimal marker-assisted selection to increase the effective size of small populations.

PubMed

Wang, J

2001-02-01

An approach to the optimal utilization of marker and pedigree information in minimizing the rates of inbreeding and genetic drift at the average locus of the genome (not just the marked loci) in a small diploid population is proposed, and its efficiency is investigated by stochastic simulations. The approach is based on estimating the expected pedigree of each chromosome by using marker and individual pedigree information and minimizing the average coancestry of selected chromosomes by quadratic integer programming. It is shown that the approach is much more effective and much less computer demanding in implementation than previous ones. For pigs with 10 offspring per mother genotyped for two markers (each with four alleles at equal initial frequency) per chromosome of 100 cM, the approach can increase the average effective size for the whole genome by approximately 40 and 55% if mating ratios (the number of females mated with a male) are 3 and 12, respectively, compared with the corresponding values obtained by optimizing between-family selection using pedigree information only. The efficiency of the marker-assisted selection method increases with increasing amount of marker information (number of markers per chromosome, heterozygosity per marker) and family size, but decreases with increasing genome size. For less prolific species, the approach is still effective if the mating ratio is large so that a high marker-assisted selection pressure on the rarer sex can be maintained.

Homoplasy and mutation model at microsatellite loci and their consequences for population genetics analysis.

PubMed

Estoup, Arnaud; Jarne, Philippe; Cornuet, Jean-Marie

2002-09-01

Homoplasy has recently attracted the attention of population geneticists, as a consequence of the popularity of highly variable stepwise mutating markers such as microsatellites. Microsatellite alleles generally refer to DNA fragments of different size (electromorphs). Electromorphs are identical in state (i.e. have identical size), but are not necessarily identical by descent due to convergent mutation(s). Homoplasy occurring at microsatellites is thus referred to as size homoplasy. Using new analytical developments and computer simulations, we first evaluate the effect of the mutation rate, the mutation model, the effective population size and the time of divergence between populations on size homoplasy at the within and between population levels. We then review the few experimental studies that used various molecular techniques to detect size homoplasious events at some microsatellite loci. The relationship between this molecularly accessible size homoplasy size and the actual amount of size homoplasy is not trivial, the former being considerably influenced by the molecular structure of microsatellite core sequences. In a third section, we show that homoplasy at microsatellite electromorphs does not represent a significant problem for many types of population genetics analyses realized by molecular ecologists, the large amount of variability at microsatellite loci often compensating for their homoplasious evolution. The situations where size homoplasy may be more problematic involve high mutation rates and large population sizes together with strong allele size constraints.

Optimal body size and energy expenditure during winter: why are voles smaller in declining populations?

PubMed

Ergon, Torbjørn; Speakman, John R; Scantlebury, Michael; Cavanagh, Rachel; Lambin, Xavier

2004-03-01

Winter is energetically challenging for small herbivores because of greater energy requirements for thermogenesis at a time when little energy is available. We formulated a model predicting optimal wintering body size, accounting for the scaling of both energy expenditure and assimilation to body size, and the trade-off between survival benefits of a large size and avoiding survival costs of foraging. The model predicts that if the energy cost of maintaining a given body mass differs between environments, animals should be smaller in the more demanding environments, and there should be a negative correlation between body mass and daily energy expenditure (DEE) across environments. In contrast, if animals adjust their energy intake according to variation in survival costs of foraging, there should be a positive correlation between body mass and DEE. Decreasing temperature always increases equilibrium DEE, but optimal body mass may either increase or decrease in colder climates depending on the exact effects of temperature on mass-specific survival and energy demands. Measuring DEE with doubly labeled water on wintering Microtus agrestis at four field sites, we found that DEE was highest at the sites where voles were smallest despite a positive correlation between DEE and body mass within sites. This suggests that variation in wintering body mass between sites was due to variation in food quality/availability and not adjustments in foraging activity to varying risks of predation.

The Effects of Population Size Histories on Estimates of Selection Coefficients from Time-Series Genetic Data.

PubMed

Jewett, Ethan M; Steinrücken, Matthias; Song, Yun S

2016-11-01

Many approaches have been developed for inferring selection coefficients from time series data while accounting for genetic drift. These approaches have been motivated by the intuition that properly accounting for the population size history can significantly improve estimates of selective strengths. However, the improvement in inference accuracy that can be attained by modeling drift has not been characterized. Here, by comparing maximum likelihood estimates of selection coefficients that account for the true population size history with estimates that ignore drift by assuming allele frequencies evolve deterministically in a population of infinite size, we address the following questions: how much can modeling the population size history improve estimates of selection coefficients? How much can mis-inferred population sizes hurt inferences of selection coefficients? We conduct our analysis under the discrete Wright-Fisher model by deriving the exact probability of an allele frequency trajectory in a population of time-varying size and we replicate our results under the diffusion model. For both models, we find that ignoring drift leads to estimates of selection coefficients that are nearly as accurate as estimates that account for the true population history, even when population sizes are small and drift is high. This result is of interest because inference methods that ignore drift are widely used in evolutionary studies and can be many orders of magnitude faster than methods that account for population sizes. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Cross-seasonal effects on waterfowl productivity: Implications under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osnas, Erik; Zhao, Qing; Runge, Michael C.; Boomer, G Scott

2016-01-01

Previous efforts to relate winter-ground precipitation to subsequent reproductive success as measured by the ratio of juveniles to adults in the autumn failed to account for increased vulnerability of juvenile ducks to hunting and uncertainty in the estimated age ratio. Neglecting increased juvenile vulnerability will positively bias the mean productivity estimate, and neglecting increased vulnerability and estimation uncertainty will positively bias the year-to-year variance in productivity because raw age ratios are the product of sampling variation, the year-specific vulnerability, and year-specific reproductive success. Therefore, we estimated the effects of cumulative winter precipitation in the California Central Valley and the Mississippi Alluvial Valley on pintail (Anas acuta) and mallard (Anas platyrhnchos) reproduction, respectively, using hierarchical Bayesian methods to correct for sampling bias in productivity estimates and observation error in covariates. We applied the model to a hunter-collected parts survey implemented by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service and band recoveries reported to the United States Geological Survey Bird Banding Laboratory using data from 1961 to 2013. We compared our results to previous estimates that used simple linear regression on uncorrected age ratios from a smaller subset of years in pintail (1961–1985). Like previous analyses, we found large and consistent effects of population size and wetland conditions in prairie Canada on mallard productivity, and large effects of population size and mean latitude of the observed breeding population on pintail productivity. Unlike previous analyses, we report a large amount of uncertainty in the estimated effects of wintering-ground precipitation on pintail and mallard productivity, with considerable uncertainty in the sign of the estimated main effect, although the posterior medians of precipitation effects were consistent with past studies. We found more consistent estimates in the sign of an interaction effect between population size and precipitation, suggesting that wintering-ground precipitation has a larger effect in years of high population size, especially for pintail. When we used the estimated effects in a population model to derive a sustainable harvest and population size projection (i.e., a yield curve), there was considerable uncertainty in the effect of increased or decreased wintering-ground precipitation on sustainable harvest potential and population size. These results suggest that the mechanism of cross-seasonal effects between winter habitat and reproduction in ducks occurs through a reduction in the strength of density dependence in years of above-average wintering-ground precipitation. We suggest additional investigation of the underlying mechanisms and that habitat managers and decision-makers consider the level of uncertainty in these estimates when attempting to integrate habitat management and harvest management decisions. Collection of annual data on the status of wintering-ground habitat in a rigorous sampling framework would likely be the most direct way to improve understanding of mechanisms and inform management.

Research on Grid Size Suitability of Gridded Population Distribution in Urban Area: A Case Study in Urban Area of Xuanzhou District, China.

PubMed

Dong, Nan; Yang, Xiaohuan; Cai, Hongyan; Xu, Fengjiao

2017-01-01

The research on the grid size suitability is important to provide improvement in accuracies of gridded population distribution. It contributes to reveal the actual spatial distribution of population. However, currently little research has been done in this area. Many well-modeled gridded population dataset are basically built at a single grid scale. If the grid cell size is not appropriate, it will result in spatial information loss or data redundancy. Therefore, in order to capture the desired spatial variation of population within the area of interest, it is necessary to conduct research on grid size suitability. This study summarized three expressed levels to analyze grid size suitability, which include location expressed level, numeric information expressed level, and spatial relationship expressed level. This study elaborated the reasons for choosing the five indexes to explore expression suitability. These five indexes are consistency measure, shape index rate, standard deviation of population density, patches diversity index, and the average local variance. The suitable grid size was determined by constructing grid size-indicator value curves and suitable grid size scheme. Results revealed that the three expressed levels on 10m grid scale are satisfying. And the population distribution raster data with 10m grid size provide excellent accuracy without loss. The 10m grid size is recommended as the appropriate scale for generating a high-quality gridded population distribution in our study area. Based on this preliminary study, it indicates the five indexes are coordinated with each other and reasonable and effective to assess grid size suitability. We also suggest choosing these five indexes in three perspectives of expressed level to carry out the research on grid size suitability of gridded population distribution.

Research on Grid Size Suitability of Gridded Population Distribution in Urban Area: A Case Study in Urban Area of Xuanzhou District, China

PubMed Central

Dong, Nan; Yang, Xiaohuan; Cai, Hongyan; Xu, Fengjiao

2017-01-01

The research on the grid size suitability is important to provide improvement in accuracies of gridded population distribution. It contributes to reveal the actual spatial distribution of population. However, currently little research has been done in this area. Many well-modeled gridded population dataset are basically built at a single grid scale. If the grid cell size is not appropriate, it will result in spatial information loss or data redundancy. Therefore, in order to capture the desired spatial variation of population within the area of interest, it is necessary to conduct research on grid size suitability. This study summarized three expressed levels to analyze grid size suitability, which include location expressed level, numeric information expressed level, and spatial relationship expressed level. This study elaborated the reasons for choosing the five indexes to explore expression suitability. These five indexes are consistency measure, shape index rate, standard deviation of population density, patches diversity index, and the average local variance. The suitable grid size was determined by constructing grid size-indicator value curves and suitable grid size scheme. Results revealed that the three expressed levels on 10m grid scale are satisfying. And the population distribution raster data with 10m grid size provide excellent accuracy without loss. The 10m grid size is recommended as the appropriate scale for generating a high-quality gridded population distribution in our study area. Based on this preliminary study, it indicates the five indexes are coordinated with each other and reasonable and effective to assess grid size suitability. We also suggest choosing these five indexes in three perspectives of expressed level to carry out the research on grid size suitability of gridded population distribution. PMID:28122050

Characterization, Ecological Distribution, and Population Dynamics of Saccharomyces Sensu Stricto Killer Yeasts in the Spontaneous Grape Must Fermentations of Southwestern Spain

PubMed Central

Maqueda, Matilde; Zamora, Emiliano; Álvarez, María L.

2012-01-01

Killer yeasts secrete protein toxins that are lethal to sensitive strains of the same or related yeast species. Among the four types of Saccharomyces killer yeasts already described (K1, K2, K28, and Klus), we found K2 and Klus killer yeasts in spontaneous wine fermentations from southwestern Spain. Both phenotypes were encoded by medium-size double-stranded RNA (dsRNA) viruses, Saccharomyces cerevisiae virus (ScV)-M2 and ScV-Mlus, whose genome sizes ranged from 1.3 to 1.75 kb and from 2.1 to 2.3 kb, respectively. The K2 yeasts were found in all the wine-producing subareas for all the vintages analyzed, while the Klus yeasts were found in the warmer subareas and mostly in the warmer ripening/harvest seasons. The middle-size isotypes of the M2 dsRNA were the most frequent among K2 yeasts, probably because they encoded the most intense K2 killer phenotype. However, the smallest isotype of the Mlus dsRNA was the most frequent for Klus yeasts, although it encoded the least intense Klus killer phenotype. The killer yeasts were present in most (59.5%) spontaneous fermentations. Most were K2, with Klus being the minority. The proportion of killer yeasts increased during fermentation, while the proportion of sensitive yeasts decreased. The fermentation speed, malic acid, and wine organoleptic quality decreased in those fermentations where the killer yeasts replaced at least 15% of a dominant population of sensitive yeasts, while volatile acidity and lactic acid increased, and the amount of bacteria in the tumultuous and the end fermentation stages also increased in an unusual way. PMID:22101056

The pathologic characteristics of breast cancer in China and its shift during 1999-2008: a national-wide multicenter cross-sectional image over 10 years.

PubMed

Zheng, Shan; Bai, Jing-Qiao; Li, Jing; Fan, Jin-Hu; Pang, Yi; Song, Qing-Kun; Huang, Rong; Yang, Hong-Jian; Xu, Feng; Lu, Ning; Qiao, You-Lin

2012-12-01

In China, breast cancer is currently the most common malignancy and the sixth leading cause of cancer death in women. But, the characteristics of breast cancer in the whole population are not determined. The aim of this study was to perform a detailed study on pathologic characteristics of breast cancer representing the whole population in China during 1999-2008 and to compare the difference in invasive breast cancer between the Western and Chinese. We randomly collected 4,211 inpatient at seven hospitals in representative geographical regions of China during 1999-2008. All the hospitals had the ability of comprehensive cancer treatment. The pathologic characters including estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status were surveyed. The shift of pathologic characters was evaluated and the data from China were also compared with those of the Western, both using Chi-square test. We found as follow. (i) The median age of the patients was 48 years and showed the similar characters of Asia. (ii) Breast cancer in China showed more invasive ductal carcinoma with larger tumor size, later stage, lower ER and PR expression and higher HER2 overexpression than those in the Western (p < 0.001). (iii) Both tumor size and stage at diagnosis decreased year by year (p < 0.001). Breast cancer in China showed more aggressive behavior than those in western countries, although tumor size and stage at diagnosis decreased by year during 1999-2008. We addressed the urgent needs for employ race-specific breast cancer screen, diagnosis methods, and therapeutic models in China. Copyright © 2012 UICC.

First-order transitions and thermodynamic properties in the 2D Blume-Capel model: the transfer-matrix method revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Moonjung; Kim, Dong-Hee

2017-12-01

We investigate the first-order transition in the spin-1 two-dimensional Blume-Capel model in square lattices by revisiting the transfer-matrix method. With large strip widths increased up to the size of 18 sites, we construct the detailed phase coexistence curve which shows excellent quantitative agreement with the recent advanced Monte Carlo results. In the deep first-order area, we observe the exponential system-size scaling of the spectral gap of the transfer matrix from which linearly increasing interfacial tension is deduced with decreasing temperature. We find that the first-order signature at low temperatures is strongly pronounced with much suppressed finite-size influence in the examined thermodynamic properties of entropy, non-zero spin population, and specific heat. It turns out that the jump at the transition becomes increasingly sharp as it goes deep into the first-order area, which is in contrast to the Wang-Landau results where finite-size smoothing gets more severe at lower temperatures.

The influence of anthropogenic edge effects on primate populations and their habitat in a fragmented rainforest in Costa Rica.

PubMed

Bolt, Laura M; Schreier, Amy L; Voss, Kristofor A; Sheehan, Elizabeth A; Barrickman, Nancy L; Pryor, Nathaniel P; Barton, Matthew C

2018-05-01

When a forest is fragmented, this increases the amount of forest edge relative to the interior. Edge effects can lead to loss of animal and plant species and decreased plant biomass near forest edges. We examined the influence of an anthropogenic forest edge comprising cattle pasture, coconut plantations, and human settlement on the mantled howler (Alouatta palliata), white-faced capuchin (Cebus capucinus), Central American spider monkey (Ateles geoffroyi), and plant populations at La Suerte Biological Research Station (LSBRS), Costa Rica. We predicted that there would be lower monkey encounter rate, mean tree species richness, and diameter at breast height (DBH) in forest edge versus interior, and that monkeys would show species-specific responses to edge based on diet, body size, and canopy height preferences. Specifically, we predicted that howler monkeys would show positive or neutral edge effects due to their flexible folivorous diet, large body size, and preference for high canopy, capuchins would show positive edge effects due to their diverse diet, small body size, and preference for low to middle canopy, and spider monkeys would show negative edge effects due their reliance on ripe fruit, large body size, and preference for high upper canopy. We conducted population and vegetation surveys along edge and interior transects at LSBRS. Contrary to predictions, total monkey encounter rate did not vary between the forest edge and forest interior. Furthermore, all three species showed neutral edge effects with no significant differences in encounter rate between forest edge and interior. Interior transects had significantly higher mean tree species richness than edge transects, and interior trees had greater DBH than edge trees, although this difference was not significant. These results suggest that forest edges negatively impact plant populations at La Suerte but that the monkeys are able to withstand these differences in vegetation.

Contrasting effects of climate on juvenile body size in a Southern Hemisphere passerine bird.

PubMed

Kruuk, Loeske E B; Osmond, Helen L; Cockburn, Andrew

2015-08-01

Despite extensive research on the topic, it has been difficult to reach general conclusions as to the effects of climate change on morphology in wild animals: in particular, the effects of warming temperatures have been associated with increases, decreases or stasis in body size in different populations. Here, we use a fine-scale analysis of associations between weather and offspring body size in a long-term study of a wild passerine bird, the cooperatively breeding superb fairy-wren, in south-eastern Australia to show that such variation in the direction of associations occurs even within a population. Over the past 26 years, our study population has experienced increased temperatures, increased frequency of heatwaves and reduced rainfall - but the mean body mass of chicks has not changed. Despite the apparent stasis, mass was associated with weather across the previous year, but in multiple counteracting ways. Firstly, (i) chick mass was negatively associated with extremely recent heatwaves, but there also positive associations with (ii) higher maximum temperatures and (iii) higher rainfall, both occurring in a period prior to and during the nesting period, and finally (iv) a longer-term negative association with higher maximum temperatures following the previous breeding season. Our results illustrate how a morphological trait may be affected by both short- and long-term effects of the same weather variable at multiple times of the year and that these effects may act in different directions. We also show that climate within the relevant time windows may not be changing in the same way, such that overall long-term temporal trends in body size may be minimal. Such complexity means that analytical approaches that search for a single 'best' window for one particular weather variable may miss other relevant information, and is also likely to make analyses of phenotypic plasticity and prediction of longer-term population dynamics difficult. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Long-term herbarium data reveal the decline of a temperate-water algae at its southern range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riera, Rodrigo; Sangil, Carlos; Sansón, Marta

2015-11-01

Distributional shifts of marine species have recently received attention as a result of increasing man-induced pressures on coastal ecosystems and global climate change (i.e. ocean warming). The southernmost geographical limit of the fucoid Fucus guiryi is the Canarian archipelago (Northeastern Atlantic Ocean) where this species is currently forming scarce and low-dense populations. Studies on long-term herbarium data revealed the decrease in size of morphological features (length and width of thallus and receptacles), and recent surveys confirmed the sharp decline, or even extinction, of F. guiryi from most sites previously documented. The increase of mean seawater surface temperature consistently matches the regression of populations of F. guiryi. Other environmental variables, such as wave exposure, cloud cover and chlorophyll-a concentration, contributed to explain local-scale spatial variability detected in Canarian populations.

Population growth enhances the mean fixation time of neutral mutations and the persistence of neutral variation.

PubMed

Waxman, D

2012-06-01

A fundamental result of population genetics states that a new mutation, at an unlinked neutral locus in a randomly mating diploid population, has a mean time of fixation of ∼4N(e) generations, where N(e) is the effective population size. This result is based on an assumption of fixed population size, which does not universally hold in natural populations. Here, we analyze such neutral fixations in populations of changing size within the framework of the diffusion approximation. General expressions are derived for the mean and variance of the fixation time in changing populations. Some explicit results are given for two cases: (i) the effective population size undergoes a sudden change, representing a sudden population expansion or a sudden bottleneck; (ii) the effective population changes linearly for a limited period of time and then remains constant. Additionally, a lower bound for the mean time of fixation is obtained for an effective population size that increases with time, and this is applied to exponentially growing populations. The results obtained in this work show, among other things, that for populations that increase in size, the mean time of fixation can be enhanced, sometimes substantially so, over 4N(e,0) generations, where N(e,0) is the effective population size at the time the mutation arises. Such an enhancement is associated with (i) an increased probability of neutral polymorphism in a population and (ii) an enhanced persistence of high-frequency neutral variation, which is the variation most likely to be observed.

Estimation of population size using open capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDonald, T.L.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2001-01-01

One of the most important needs for wildlife managers is an accurate estimate of population size. Yet, for many species, including most marine species and large mammals, accurate and precise estimation of numbers is one of the most difficult of all research challenges. Open-population capture-recapture models have proven useful in many situations to estimate survival probabilities but typically have not been used to estimate population size. We show that open-population models can be used to estimate population size by developing a Horvitz-Thompson-type estimate of population size and an estimator of its variance. Our population size estimate keys on the probability of capture at each trap occasion and therefore is quite general and can be made a function of external covariates measured during the study. Here we define the estimator and investigate its bias, variance, and variance estimator via computer simulation. Computer simulations make extensive use of real data taken from a study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in the Beaufort Sea. The population size estimator is shown to be useful because it was negligibly biased in all situations studied. The variance estimator is shown to be useful in all situations, but caution is warranted in cases of extreme capture heterogeneity.

Calcification response of a key phytoplankton family to millennial-scale environmental change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClelland, H. L. O.; Barbarin, N.; Beaufort, L.; Hermoso, M.; Ferretti, P.; Greaves, M.; Rickaby, R. E. M.

2016-09-01

Coccolithophores are single-celled photosynthesizing marine algae, responsible for half of the calcification in the surface ocean, and exert a strong influence on the distribution of carbon among global reservoirs, and thus Earth’s climate. Calcification in the surface ocean decreases the buffering capacity of seawater for CO2, whilst photosynthetic carbon fixation has the opposite effect. Experiments in culture have suggested that coccolithophore calcification decreases under high CO2 concentrations ([CO2(aq)]) constituting a negative feedback. However, the extent to which these results are representative of natural populations, and of the response over more than a few hundred generations is unclear. Here we describe and apply a novel rationale for size-normalizing the mass of the calcite plates produced by the most abundant family of coccolithophores, the Noëlaerhabdaceae. On average, ancient populations subjected to coupled gradual increases in [CO2(aq)] and temperature over a few million generations in a natural environment become relatively more highly calcified, implying a positive climatic feedback. We hypothesize that this is the result of selection manifest in natural populations over millennial timescales, so has necessarily eluded laboratory experiments.

Calcification response of a key phytoplankton family to millennial-scale environmental change

PubMed Central

McClelland, H. L. O.; Barbarin, N.; Beaufort, L.; Hermoso, M.; Ferretti, P.; Greaves, M.; Rickaby, R. E. M.

2016-01-01

Coccolithophores are single-celled photosynthesizing marine algae, responsible for half of the calcification in the surface ocean, and exert a strong influence on the distribution of carbon among global reservoirs, and thus Earth’s climate. Calcification in the surface ocean decreases the buffering capacity of seawater for CO2, whilst photosynthetic carbon fixation has the opposite effect. Experiments in culture have suggested that coccolithophore calcification decreases under high CO2 concentrations ([CO2(aq)]) constituting a negative feedback. However, the extent to which these results are representative of natural populations, and of the response over more than a few hundred generations is unclear. Here we describe and apply a novel rationale for size-normalizing the mass of the calcite plates produced by the most abundant family of coccolithophores, the Noëlaerhabdaceae. On average, ancient populations subjected to coupled gradual increases in [CO2(aq)] and temperature over a few million generations in a natural environment become relatively more highly calcified, implying a positive climatic feedback. We hypothesize that this is the result of selection manifest in natural populations over millennial timescales, so has necessarily eluded laboratory experiments. PMID:27677230